Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy; Minimal-Risk Regions; Importation of Live Bovines and Products Derived From Bovines, 1102-1129 [07-17]
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Federal Register / Vol. 72, No. 5 / Tuesday, January 9, 2007 / Proposed Rules
DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
Animal and Plant Health Inspection
Service
9 CFR Parts 93, 94, 95, and 96
[Docket No. APHIS–2006–0041]
RIN 0579–AC01
Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy;
Minimal-Risk Regions; Importation of
Live Bovines and Products Derived
From Bovines
Animal and Plant Health
Inspection Service, USDA.
ACTION: Proposed rule.
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AGENCY:
SUMMARY: We are proposing to amend
the regulations regarding the
importation of animals and animal
products to establish conditions for the
importation of the following
commodities from regions that present a
minimal risk of introducing bovine
spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) into
the United States: Live bovines for any
use born on or after a date determined
by APHIS to be the date of effective
enforcement of a ruminant-to-ruminant
feed ban in the region of export; blood
and blood products derived from
bovines; and casings and part of the
small intestine derived from bovines.
We are proposing these amendments
after conducting a risk assessment and
comprehensive evaluation of the issues
that concluded that such bovines and
bovine products can be safely imported
under the conditions described in this
proposed rule.
DATES: We will consider all comments
that we receive on or before March 12,
2007.
ADDRESSES: You may submit comments
by either of the following methods:
• Federal eRulemaking Portal: Go to
https://www.regulations.gov, select
‘‘Animal and Plant Health Inspection
Service’’ from the agency drop-down
menu, then click ‘‘Submit.’’ In the
Docket ID column, select APHIS–2006–
0041 to submit or view public
comments and to view supporting and
related materials available
electronically. Information on using
Regulations.gov, including instructions
for accessing documents, submitting
comments, and viewing the docket after
the close of the comment period, is
available through the site’s ‘‘User Tips’’
link.
• Postal Mail/Commercial Delivery:
Please send four copies of your
comment (an original and three copies)
to Docket No. APHIS 2006–0041,
Regulatory Analysis and Development,
PPD, APHIS, Station 3A–03.8, 4700
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River Road Unit 118, Riverdale, MD
20737–1238. Please state that your
comment refers to Docket No. APHIS
2006–0041.
Reading Room: You may read any
comments that we receive on this
docket in our reading room. The reading
room is located in room 1141 of the
USDA South Building, 14th Street and
Independence Avenue, SW.,
Washington, DC. Normal reading room
hours are 8 a.m. to 4:30 p.m., Monday
through Friday, except holidays. To be
sure someone is there to help you,
please call (202) 690–2817 before
coming.
Other Information: Additional
information about APHIS and its
programs is available on the Internet at
https://www.aphis.usda.gov.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: For
information regarding ruminant
products, contact Dr. Karen JamesPreston, Director, Technical Trade
Services, Animal Products, National
Center for Import and Export, VS,
APHIS, 4700 River Road Unit 38,
Riverdale, MD 20737–1231; (301) 734–
4356.
For information concerning live
ruminants, contact Dr. Lee Ann Thomas,
Director, Technical Trade Services,
Animals, Organisms and Vectors, and
Select Agents, National Center for
Import and Export, VS, APHIS, 4700
River Road Unit 38, Riverdale, MD
20737–1231; (301) 734–4356.
For other information concerning this
proposed rule, contact Dr. Lisa
Ferguson, Senior Staff Veterinarian,
National Center for Animal Health
Programs, VS, APHIS, 4700 River Road
Unit 43, Riverdale, MD 20737–1231;
(301) 734–6954.
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION:
I. Background
The Animal and Plant Health
Inspection Service (APHIS) of the U.S.
Department of Agriculture (USDA or
Department) regulates the importation
of animals and animal products into the
United States to guard against the
introduction of animal diseases. The
regulations in 9 CFR parts 93, 94, 95,
and 96 (referred to below as the
regulations) govern the importation of
certain animals, birds, poultry, meat,
other animal products and byproducts,
hay, and straw into the United States in
order to prevent the introduction of
various animal diseases, including
bovine spongiform encephalopathy
(BSE), a chronic degenerative disease
affecting the central nervous system of
cattle.
With some exceptions, APHIS’
regulations prohibit or restrict the
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importation of live ruminants and
certain ruminant products and
byproducts from the following three
categories of regions with regard to BSE:
(1) Those regions in which BSE is
known to exist (listed in § 94.18(a)(1) of
the regulations); (2) those regions that
present an undue risk of introducing
BSE into the United States because their
import requirements are less restrictive
than those that would be acceptable for
import into the United States and/or
because the regions have inadequate
surveillance (listed in § 94.18(a)(2) of
the regulations); and (3) those regions
that present a minimal risk of
introducing BSE into the United States
via live ruminants and ruminant
products and byproducts (listed in
§ 94.18(a)(3) of the regulations).
Chronology of APHIS Federal Register
Publications Regarding BSE MinimalRisk Regions
We added the § 94.18(a)(3) category
(BSE minimal-risk regions) to the
regulations in a final rule published in
the Federal Register on January 4, 2005
(70 FR 459–553, Docket No. 03–080–3).
In the final rule, we specified which
commodities may be imported from BSE
minimal-risk regions and under what
conditions, and recognized Canada as a
BSE minimal-risk region. (At this time,
Canada is the only recognized BSE
minimal-risk region.)
The January 2005 final rule was based
on a proposed rule we published in the
Federal Register on November 4, 2003
(68 FR 62386–62405, Docket No. 03–
080–1). On December 25, 2003, less than
2 weeks before the close of the comment
period for our proposed rule, a case of
BSE in a dairy cow of Canadian origin
in Washington State was verified by an
international reference laboratory.
In response to comments from the
public requesting an extension of the
comment period and in order to give the
public an additional opportunity to
comment on the proposed rule in light
of this development, on March 8, 2004,
we published a notice in the Federal
Register (69 FR 10633–10636, Docket
No. 03–080–2) reopening and extending
the comment period.
On January 5, 2005, along with the
final rule, we published in the Federal
Register a notice (70 FR 554, Docket No.
03–080–4) announcing the availability
of, and requesting comments on, a final
environmental assessment (EA)
regarding the potential impact on the
quality of the human environment due
to the importation of ruminants and
ruminant products and byproducts from
Canada under the conditions specified
in the final rule. On January 21, 2005,
we published in the Federal Register a
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notice (70 FR 3183–3184, Docket No.
03–080–5) announcing the availability
of a corrected version of the EA for
public review and comment. On April 8,
2005, we published in the Federal
Register a finding (70 FR 18252–18262,
Docket No. 03–080–7) that the
provisions of the final rule would not
have a significant impact on the quality
of the human environment.
On March 11, 2005, we published a
document in the Federal Register that
gave notice that the Secretary of
Agriculture was delaying until further
notice the implementation of certain
provisions of the final rule with regard
to certain commodities (70 FR 12112–
12113, Docket No. 03–080–6).
On November 28, 2005, we published
in the Federal Register an interim rule
(70 FR 71213–71218, Docket No. 03–
080–8) that amended certain provisions
established by the January 2005 final
rule. The interim rule broadened the list
of who is authorized to break seals on
conveyances and allows transloading
under supervision of products transiting
the United States.
On March 14, 2006, we published in
the Federal Register a technical
amendment (71 FR 12994–12998,
Docket No. 03–080–9) that clarified our
intent with regard to certain provisions
in the January 2005 final rule and
corrected several inconsistencies within
the rule.
On August 9, 2006, we published in
the Federal Register a proposed rule (71
FR 45439–45444, Docket No. APHIS–
2006–0026) that proposed to amend the
provisions established by the January
2005 final rule by removing several
restrictions regarding the identification
of animals and the processing of
ruminant materials from BSE minimalrisk regions, and by relieving BSE-based
restrictions on hide-derived gelatin from
BSE minimal-risk regions. We solicited
comments concerning our proposal for
60 days ending October 10, 2006. On
November 9, 2006, we published a
notice in the Federal Register (71 FR
65758–65759, Docket No. APHIS–2006–
0026) reopening and extended the
comment period until November 24,
2006. We received a total of 10
comments by that date. We are
considering the issues raised by the
commenters and will address them in a
separate rulemaking document.
Scope of the January 2005 Final Rule
The regulations established by the
January 2005 final rule and subsequent
amendments allow the importation from
BSE minimal-risk regions of live
bovines that are under 30 months of age
when imported and when slaughtered
and that have been subject to a ruminant
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feed ban equivalent to that in place in
the United States. The risk analysis we
conducted for that rule found that,
because of the nature, incubation
period, and progression of BSE
infectivity, young cattle exposed to low
levels of BSE will accumulate very little
BSE infectivity within the first few years
of life, and that cattle under 30 months
of age from a BSE minimal-risk region
are highly unlikely to have accumulated
significant amounts of BSE infectivity
even if infected. We concluded,
therefore, that the risk to U.S. livestock
presented by the importation of such
bovines was low.
We did not attempt, for that
rulemaking, to assess the BSE risk
associated with the importation of live
bovines 30 months of age or older from
a BSE minimal-risk region. Our March
8, 2004, notice that reopened and
extended the comment period on the
November 2003 proposed rule stated
that APHIS was evaluating the
appropriate approach with regard to the
importation of live animals 30 months
of age or older from BSE minimal-risk
regions, and would address that issue in
a supplemental rulemaking proposal in
the Federal Register. The provisions in
this proposed rule regarding live
bovines are the result of that evaluation.
The regulations established by the
January 2005 final rule also allow the
importation of the following
commodities derived from bovines of
any age: (1) Meat, meat food products,
and meat byproducts; (2) whole or half
carcasses; (3) offal; (4) tallow composed
of less than 0.15 percent insoluble
impurities that are not otherwise
eligible for importation under
§ 95.4(a)(1)(i) of the regulations; and (5)
gelatin derived from bones of bovines
that is not otherwise eligible for
importation under § 94.18(c) of the
regulations.
The January 2005 final rule and
subsequent amendments did not change
the regulations concerning the
importation of blood and blood
products from regions listed in
§ 94.18(a); the requirements for the
importation of blood and blood
products from BSE minimal-risk regions
remain the same as the requirements for
importation of blood and blood
products from other regions listed in
§ 94.18(a)—only serum and serum
albumin are eligible for importation.
The January 2005 final rule also did not
change the regulations concerning the
importation of bovine casings (defined
as intestines, stomachs, esophagi, and
urinary bladders) from regions listed in
§ 94.18(a); the requirements for the
importation of bovine casings from BSE
minimal-risk regions remain the same as
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the requirements for importation of
bovine casings from other regions listed
in § in 94.18(a)—only bovine stomachs
are eligible for importation.
The January 2005 final rule and
subsequent amendments allowed trade
to resume in many, but not all, of the
commodities that had been prohibited
importation from Canada following
detection of a BSE-infected cow in
Canada in May 2003. We have
continued to consider the BSE risk
associated with older bovines and other
bovine products from BSE minimal-risk
regions—and Canada in particular—
including bovine blood and blood
products, bovine small intestine other
than the distal ileum, and bovine
casings, which are the subject of this
proposed rule.
Under the Animal Health Protection
Act (7 U.S.C. 8301 et seq.), the Secretary
of Agriculture may prohibit the
importation of any animal or article if
the Secretary determines that the
prohibition is necessary to prevent the
introduction into or dissemination
within the United States of any pest or
disease of livestock. The Secretary has
determined that it is not necessary to
continue to prohibit the importation
from BSE minimal-risk regions
(currently only Canada) of live bovines
born after the date a feed ban was
effectively enforced in the region of
export, bovine blood or blood products,
bovine small intestine other than the
distal ileum, or bovine casings,
provided that the conditions described
in this proposal are met.1 This
determination is based on a number of
factors, which are discussed in this
document and, in greater detail, in the
risk assessment prepared for this
rulemaking. The risk assessment, and
the peer review plan and charge for this
assessment may be viewed on the
Regulations.gov Web site or in our
reading room. Instructions for accessing
Regulations.gov and information on the
location and hours of the reading room
are provided under the heading
ADDRESSES at the beginning of this
proposed rule.) In addition, copies may
be obtained by calling or writing to the
1 The current regulations regarding BSE minimalrisk regions apply to bison as well as cattle. In
current §§ 93.400, 94.0, and 95.1 of the regulations,
bovine is defined as Bos taurus, Bos indicus, and
Bison bison. Although the research and other data
cited in this proposed rule refer to bovines other
than bison (i.e., to ‘‘cattle’’), there is no evidence to
indicate that the BSE susceptibility of bison differs
from that of cattle. We therefore assume that our
conclusions based on cattle-specific evidence
discussed in this proposed rule are also applicable
to bison. Given that no cases of BSE have been
detected in bison, this is likely a cautious
assumption. The provisions of this proposed rule
would apply to bovines as defined in the current
regulations, which include bison.
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individuals listed under FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION CONTACT.
II. BSE and the Government’s Role in
Protecting Human and Animal Health
A. Nature of BSE
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BSE is a progressive and fatal
neurological disorder of cattle that
results from an unconventional
transmissible agent. BSE belongs to the
family of diseases known as
transmissible spongiform
encephalopathies (TSEs). All TSEs
affect the central nervous system of
infected animals. However, the
distribution of infectivity in the body of
the animal and mode of transmission
differ according to the species and TSE
agent. In addition to BSE, TSEs include,
among other diseases, scrapie in sheep
and goats, chronic wasting disease in
deer and elk, and Creutzfeldt-Jakob
disease in humans.
The agent that causes BSE has yet to
be fully characterized. The theory that is
most accepted in the international
scientific community is that the agent is
an abnormal form of a normal protein
known as cellular prion protein. The
BSE agent does not evoke a traditional
immune response or inflammatory
reaction in host animals. BSE is
confirmed by post-mortem microscopic
examination of an animal’s brain tissue
or by detection of the abnormal form of
the prion protein in an animal’s brain
tissues. The pathogenic form of the
protein is both less soluble and more
resistant to degradation than the normal
form. The BSE agent is resistant to heat
and to normal sterilization processes.
BSE is not a contagious disease, and
therefore is not spread through casual
contact between animals. (The
possibility of maternal transmission
(i.e., from a bovine dam directly to her
offspring) was suggested by a 1997
study (Ref 1) conducted in the United
Kingdom. However, subsequent studies
have shown that it is unlikely that
maternal transmission of BSE occurs at
any epidemiologically significant level,
if it occurs at all (Ref 2)). Scientists
believe that the primary route of
transmission requires that cattle ingest
feed that has been contaminated with a
sufficient amount of tissue from an
infected animal. This route of
transmission can be prevented by
excluding potentially contaminated
materials from ruminant feed.
B. U.S. Government’s Role in Protecting
Human and Animal Health
Because variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob
Disease (vCJD), a chronic and fatal
neurodegenerative disease of humans,
has been linked via scientific and
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epidemiological studies to exposure to
the BSE agent, most likely through
consumption of cattle products
contaminated with the BSE agent,
APHIS collaborates with other Federal
agencies to implement a coordinated
U.S. response to BSE.
Protecting human and animal health
from the risks of BSE is carried out on
the Federal level primarily by APHIS
regarding animal health and the
Department’s Food Safety and
Inspection Service (FSIS) regarding the
food safety of meat and poultry, in
coordination with the following Centers
of the Food and Drug Administration
(FDA), U.S. Department of Health and
Human Services: The Center for
Veterinary Medicine regarding animal
feed and animal drugs; the Center for
Food Safety and Applied Nutrition
regarding foods other than meat,
poultry, and egg products; the Center for
Biologics Evaluation and Research
regarding blood and blood products and
other products; the Center for Drug
Evaluation and Research regarding
drugs containing bovine material; and
the Center for Devices and Radiological
Health regarding devices containing
bovine material.
APHIS recognizes that, although
Federal agencies may differ somewhat
in their specific mandates, it is
necessary to conduct a coordinated
Federal effort to safeguard human and
animal health. We consider it important
to base APHIS’ regulatory actions on the
best scientific evidence. Additionally, as
the agencies make BSE-related
documents available for public
comment, or otherwise solicit public
response, the agencies share and discuss
information received.
Of recent note is information solicited
and received by FSIS between July and
October 2006 regarding the 2005
updated Harvard Risk Assessment of
BSE associated with public health
exposure. FSIS discussed with APHIS
and FDA public comments it received in
response to a notice of availability (71
FR 39282–39283, Docket No. FSIS–
2006–0011, published in the Federal
Register July 12, 2006) and a public
technical meeting regarding the risk
assessment and the potential of BSE
exposure and animal health. APHIS has
taken relevant comments received into
consideration with regard to its risk
assessment for this proposed rule.
III. Commodities Covered by This
Proposed Rule
This rule would amend the APHIS
regulations as they apply to the
importation of the following
commodities from BSE minimal-risk
regions:
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• Live bovines;
• Blood and blood products derived
from bovines;
• Small intestine, other than the
distal ileum, derived from bovines; and
• Casings derived from bovines.
This part of the Supplementary
Information section of this proposed
rule discusses the risks associated with
each commodity, mitigations that
address the risk, and how we propose to
amend the regulations to allow the
importation of these commodities.
A. Live Bovines
BSE Transmission
As noted above under ‘‘Nature of
BSE,’’ oral ingestion of feed
contaminated with the BSE agent is the
only documented route of field
transmission of BSE (Ref 2 and 3).
Several steps must take place for BSE to
be transmitted to cattle in the United
States from a bovine imported live from
another country. A BSE-infected bovine
must be imported into the United States;
the infected bovine must die or be
slaughtered; tissues from that animal
that contain the infectious agent must be
sent to a rendering facility; the
infectivity present in these tissues must
survive inactivation in the rendering
process; the resulting meat-and-bone
meal containing the abnormal prion
protein must be incorporated into feed;
and this feed must be fed to cattle at a
level adequate to infect the cattle. (The
amount of infectious material required
in feed for cattle to become infected is
dependent on the age of the cattle;
younger cattle are more susceptible to
BSE and require less BSE-contaminated
feed to become infected (Ref 4).)
Proposed Regulatory Change; OIE
Guideline
The first step that must occur for BSE
to be transmitted to cattle in the United
States from a BSE-infected bovine
imported live into this country from a
BSE minimal-risk region is that such a
bovine must enter the United States.
Under our current regulations, the risk
of such a bovine entering the United
States is already very low because of the
APHIS regulatory standards for
importation from BSE minimal-risk
regions.
In this document, we are proposing to
allow the importation of live bovines
from BSE minimal-risk regions if the
animals were born on or after a date
determined by APHIS to be the date on
and after which a ruminant-to-ruminant
feed ban in the region of export has been
effectively enforced. Experience around
the world in countries with BSE has
demonstrated that feed bans are
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effective control measures, and that the
incidence of BSE worldwide continues
to decline because of these measures
(Ref 5 and 6).
Because of the demonstrated efficacy
of an effectively enforced feed ban in
reducing the possibility of exposure of
cattle to the BSE agent, the World
Organization for Animal Health (OIE)
provides guidelines for trade in live
cattle from regions that have reported
BSE if such regions have an effective
feed ban in place, provided the cattle
were born after the date when the feed
ban was effectively enforced (OIE
Terrestrial Animal Health Code, Chapter
2.3.13). The condition in this proposed
rule for the importation of live bovines
from BSE minimal-risk regions is
consistent with the OIE guideline.
Importance of a Feed Ban in Reducing
the Likelihood of BSE Transmission
By eliminating transmission, an
effective feed ban reduces the
possibility of the existence of infected
animals in a given cattle population,
which in turn reduces even further the
chances of healthy animals being
exposed to the BSE agent via subsequent
recycling of infectivity.
Experience in the United Kingdom
demonstrates that implementation of a
ruminant-to-ruminant feed ban causes
BSE prevalence to decrease. Animal
feed restrictions were implemented in
the United Kingdom in 1988, when the
use of ruminant meat-and-bone meal
(MBM) in ruminant animal feed was
banned. In September 1990, the use of
specified bovine offals was banned for
use in any animal feed. This ban
prohibited the use in any animal feed of
bovine tissues with the highest potential
concentration of infectivity. In 1994, the
use of mammalian protein—not just
ruminant protein—was banned from
ruminant feed. In 1996, feeding of any
farmed livestock, including fish and
horses, with mammalian MBM was
completely banned. As a result of
reducing the recycling of infectivity, the
annual incidence of BSE fell by 99.4
percent, from 36,680 in 1992 to 203 in
2005 (Ref 7).
Although the data presented in the
following figure and table represent the
specific situation in Great Britain during
the years identified in the graph, there
is every reason to expect downward
pressure on the prevalence of BSE in
any country that implements a feed ban.
Figure 1. Confirmed cases in cattle in
Great Britain born after feed ban
implementation. Note: The first feed ban
was implemented in the summer of
1988 (before fall calving) (Ref 8).
The raw data that provided the basis
for Figure 1 are reproduced in Table 1:
TABLE 1.—CONFIRMED CASES IN
GREAT BRITAIN BY YEAR OF BIRTH,
WHERE KNOWN—Continued
TABLE 1.—CONFIRMED CASES IN
GREAT BRITAIN BY YEAR OF BIRTH,
WHERE KNOWN—Continued
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Year
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
..........................................
..........................................
..........................................
..........................................
..........................................
..........................................
..........................................
..........................................
..........................................
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Cases
1
0
2
10
6
41
102
262
1,394
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1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
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Cases
..........................................
..........................................
..........................................
..........................................
..........................................
..........................................
..........................................
..........................................
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..........................................
..........................................
..........................................
..........................................
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..........................................
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4,463
8,069
11,071
19,752
36,935
22,266
12,748
5,748
4,779
3,531
2,997
2,182
1,100
67
45
37
24
6
Year
Cases
2001 ..........................................
2002 ..........................................
Unknown birth year ..................
5
1
43,342
Total ...................................
180,986
(Ref 8)
Determining a Date of Effective
Enforcement of a Feed Ban
Under the current regulations, one of
the conditions that must be met for a
region to be recognized by APHIS as a
BSE minimal-risk region is that the
region must have in place a ruminantto-ruminant feed ban that is effectively
enforced. APHIS bases its determination
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TABLE 1.—CONFIRMED CASES IN
GREAT BRITAIN BY YEAR OF BIRTH,
WHERE KNOWN
Year
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of whether a region has in place an
effectively enforced ruminant-toruminant feed ban on an evaluation of
the laws and regulations in place in the
region, the adequacy of the
infrastructure to implement the
regulations, and the evidence of
effective implementation and
monitoring (i.e., compliance
inspections, training and records).
We are proposing in this rule to
require that bovines from a BSE
minimal-risk region intended for
importation into the United States have
been born on or after the date
determined by APHIS to be the date of
effective enforcement of a ruminant-toruminant feed ban in the region of
export. In determining the date of
effective enforcement of a feed ban, we
believe it is first necessary to consider
the amount of time, if any, between the
regulatory establishment of the feed ban
in the region of export and the practical
implementation of the ban. The period
of practical implementation can be
determined by evaluating
implementation guidance and policies,
such as allowing grace periods for
certain aspects of the industry. In
addition, the time necessary for initial
education of industry and training of
inspectors must be considered.
After the practical implementation
period is determined, we believe it is
then necessary to consider whether, in
the region being evaluated, an
additional period of time was needed to
allow most feed products to cycle
through the system, given the
management practices in the country.
Feed Ban in Canada
In conjunction with the rulemaking
that resulted in the January 2005 final
rule, APHIS conducted a risk analysis in
2003 and 2004 to evaluate the BSE risk
from ruminants and ruminant products
imported from regions presenting a
minimal BSE risk, and to evaluate
whether Canada could be classified as a
minimal risk region (Ref 9 and 10). As
part of the risk analysis, USDA
evaluated a series of measures
introduced in Canada to prevent the
feeding of ruminant proteins to
ruminant animals. USDA considered the
compliance activities reported by the
Canadian Food Inspection Agency
(CFIA) as well as epidemiological
information in concluding that
compliance with the feed ban was good,
and that the feed ban was effectively
enforced. In response to the detection of
two additional BSE cases in Canada, in
January 2005, USDA reassessed the
oversight of Canada’s feed ban. Based on
review of inspection records and on-site
observations, USDA confirmed that
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Canada has a robust inspection program,
that overall compliance with the feed
ban is good, and that the feed ban is
reducing the risk of transmission of BSE
in the Canadian cattle population (Ref
11). In addition to the USDA audit of
the Canadian feed ban, CFIA conducted
its own review in 2005, and concluded
that the ban is providing an effective
mitigation that is contributing to
reducing the BSE risk in the country to
an extremely low level (Ref 12).
controls (such as Good Manufacturing
Practices and a risk-based Hazard
Analysis and Critical Control Point
(HACCP) plan, recordkeeping (for both
production and distribution) and
labeling requirements (i.e., ‘‘Do not feed
to cattle, sheep, deer or other
ruminants’’ on labels and invoices for
all prohibited material) directed at
preventing cross-contamination or
misfeeding.
Components of the Canadian Feed Ban
Canada’s feed ban came into force on
August 4, 1997, when CFIA issued
regulations prohibiting the use of
mammalian protein in ruminant feeds
as follows: ‘‘Any feed that is, or that
contains any prohibited material
originating from a mammal (with
exceptions) shall not be fed to a
ruminant’’ (Ref 12). The ban provided
exceptions for milk, blood, gelatin, and
protein derived solely from porcine or
equine sources. Canadian feed
regulations also prohibit the use of plate
waste and poultry litter in ruminant
feed.
The feed ban includes requirements
for labeling and recordkeeping. Feed
manufacturers, renderers, retailers, and
livestock producers must document
their production procedures and feeding
practices to verify their compliance with
the feed ban. Feed manufacturers must
keep records regarding the composition,
identity, and distribution of all feeds for
the species named in the regulations.
Renderers, feed manufacturers and
farmers must take steps to prevent the
material prohibited under the feed ban
from being incorporated into or
contaminating ruminant feed. To
prevent the misfeeding of prohibited
material to ruminants, users of livestock
feed must keep labels or invoices from
all purchased feeds containing
prohibited material; these records must
be kept for 2 years.
Measures to Prevent Contamination of
Feed
Measures Required at Rendering
Facilities
The rendering industry is important
in reducing the risk of transmitting BSE
infectivity, not only because of its role
in inactivation of the BSE agent, but also
because it serves as a control point for
the redirection of ruminant protein
away from cattle feeds. Since 1998, all
Canadian rendering facilities have been
subject to annual inspections and
permitting (Ref 11). Three types of
permits are issued, allowing companies
to produce either non-prohibited
material only, prohibited material only,
or both non-prohibited and prohibited
material (Ref 11). Permitting requires
implementation of manufacturing
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As mentioned earlier, renderers, feed
manufacturers, and farmers must take
steps to prevent material prohibited
under the feed ban from being
incorporated into or contaminating
ruminant feed. Such incorporation or
contamination can be prevented by
having dedicated processing lines or
facilities that use only prohibited or
non-prohibited material. If a facility
handles both prohibited and nonprohibited material, procedures must be
established and maintained to conduct
flushing and/or clean-out between
batches of product to prevent crosscontamination.
The feed industry in Canada has also
taken a number of aggressive steps to
comply with measures in the feed ban
designed to reduce the risk of
contamination of feed for cattle with
prohibited material. Recently both the
United States and Canada reviewed the
changes made to industry procedures
and governmental inspectional
oversight. (Ref 11 and 12). These
reviews demonstrated, for example, that
the Canadian rendering industry has
moved toward establishment of
dedicated facilities or dedicated
processing lines within rendering
facilities (Ref 11 and 12). Of the 29
rendering facilities in Canada, 6 handle
both prohibited and non-prohibited
material, compared to 13 that initially
handled both types of material. Of the
six, four use dedicated processing lines
(Ref 12). According to CFIA’s reports,
the feed manufacturing industry has
also moved toward dedicated facilities.
According to the most recent review
(March 2005), 94 (17%) of the 550
commercial feed mills in Canada
handled prohibited material and also
manufactured feeds for ruminants,
compared to 120 (22%) in 2002–2003
(Ref 12). These actions, in addition to
the labeling and recordkeeping
requirements for all products containing
prohibited material, decrease the
likelihood of contamination of ruminant
feeds with prohibited material.
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Inspections and Compliance
Following establishment of the feed
ban in 1997, CFIA broadened its
communications with the affected
industries and implemented an
inspection program. This program was
introduced in phases. From 1997–2000,
inspection activities focused on
integrating the feed ban’s requirements
into standard industry practices. For
example, starting in 1998, rendering
facilities were required to pass an
annual inspection in order to renew
their permits to operate. In 2000 and
2001, CFIA modified its compliance
programs by increasing the frequency of
inspections of commercial feed mills
from once every 3 years to every year
and by continuing the annual inspection
and permitting of all rendering facilities.
Since 2002, CFIA has been conducting
annual inspections of all rendering and
commercial feed mill facilities and some
ruminant feeders and retail feed
distributors.
Recent Regulatory Amendments in
Canada
In June 2006, CFIA issued
amendments to the feed ban regulations
in Canada to enhance the feed ban in
that country. Those amendments
require, among other things, the removal
of potentially BSE-infective tissues
(specified risk materials, or SRMs) from
all animal feeds, pet food, and fertilizer.
The amendments will not be effective
until July 12, 2007, and, therefore, they
are not included in this discussion.
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Date of Effective Enforcement of
Ruminant-to-Ruminant Feed Ban in
Canada
For the purposes of this proposed
rule, we have determined a date we
consider to be the date of effective
enforcement of ruminant-to-ruminant
feed ban in Canada, the only country
currently recognized by APHIS as a BSE
minimal-risk region. Although the
regulations establishing the feed ban in
Canada came into force upon their
publication in August 1997, full
implementation and effective
enforcement was a gradual process. In
determining a date when the feed ban
could be considered to be effectively
enforced, we carefully considered
information drawn from the
epidemiological investigations to date
and the reports noted above under the
heading ‘‘Feed Ban in Canada.’’
From the outset, CFIA recognized that
a phase-in period would be required
before prohibited materials that were
already in feed channels would be
exhausted and labeling and
recordkeeping requirements would be
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met. CFIA estimated that it would take
approximately 30 days for feed mills
and retailers to use up and distribute
existing supplies of ‘‘old’’ product; 60
days to add a caution statement to the
necessary documents; and 60 days for
farms to use up their stores of ‘‘old’’
product (Ref 13). All retailers were
given until September 3, 1997, to use or
distribute feed already produced. Feed
manufacturers received a grace period
until October 3, 1997, to comply with
labeling requirements. Livestock
producers were given a grace period
until October 3, 1997, to use the feed
manufactured and purchased prior to
the feed ban. However, feed tracing
associated with one of the Canadian
BSE cases suggested that feed produced
prior to implementation of the feed ban
may have been available at feed stores
beyond the grace period. Therefore, a
period of 6 months has been estimated
for practical implementation of the feed
ban, making February 1998 a more
reasonable baseline from which to
assess effective implementation (Ref 13).
However, based on our evaluation of
the situation in Canada, we believe that
the feed ban there achieved full efficacy
only at some time after the practical
implementation period. We believe that
additional time was necessary to allow
for most old feed to cycle through and
out of the system. To evaluate the
duration of this time frame in Canada,
we considered on-farm feeding practices
in that country. Most cattle producers in
Canada do not hold extensive long-term
inventories of purchased feeds on their
farms due to limited storage space and
expense. These practices make it
unlikely that feeds containing
prohibited material were available for
more than a few months after practical
implementation of the feed ban. The
possible exception is mineral mixes
produced before the feed ban that may
have contained ruminant MBM. Mineral
mixes are typically fed daily but in very
small quantities (grams rather than
pounds per day) (Ref 14 and 15) and
may be stored on the farms for longer
periods of time. We believe, however,
that they are not likely to have been
purchased for use for periods longer
than a year.
Both beef and dairy cattle production
can be considered to have an annual, or
12-month, calving cycle, in that a cow
on a beef or dairy farm will generally
give birth once a year. Calving occurs
among cows year-round on Canada’s
dairy farms to ensure a constant supply
of fluid milk. Most dairy farms in
Canada produce their own forage and
grains (Ref 16). Forages produced
seasonally are stored on the farm to
provide the basis for the diet fed to
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dairy cattle of all ages and production
stages. Protein supplements and
specialty feeds, such as mixed calf
feeds, are typically purchased
commercially in quantities to be fed out
over a few months, because these
supplemental feeds are expensive to
purchase, costly to store, and may
deteriorate with time. Typically,
purchased feeds are available
throughout the year with only moderate
price variations, so there is little
incentive for producers to maintain
large on-farm inventories (Ref 17). The
Canadian beef production cycle is very
seasonal in that cows are bred so that
calving occurs at the same time of year,
generally in the spring (Ref 16).
Producers are not likely to carry
extensive feed inventories from season
to season (Ref 16 and 18). Therefore, in
both Canadian dairy and beef
production, a 12-month period would
generally be sufficient to allow
purchased feed products that may
contain MBM to be completely used.
We arrived at our determination that
the Canadian feed ban was fully
implemented and effectively enforced as
of March 1, 1999, by adding this
additional 12-month period to the 6month ‘‘practical implementation
period’’ following the August 1997
establishment of the feed ban in Canada.
We believe that prohibiting the
importation of bovines from Canada that
were born before March 1, 1999, would
provide an appropriate additional
mitigation to what is an already
extremely low risk of the introduction of
BSE from Canada.
Assessment of Risk From Cattle of
Canadian Origin
As noted above, Canada is currently
the only country recognized by APHIS
as a BSE minimal-risk region. In
conjunction with this rulemaking, we
have conducted an assessment that both
quantitatively and qualitatively
addresses the potential BSE risk of
importing live bovines from Canada.
Arriving at an estimation of risk
begins with laying out the risk pathway
(a series of occurrences or steps
necessary for disease to enter and
become established). Next, the
likelihood of each of the multiple steps
must be estimated. In our risk
assessment, although we analyze the
likelihood of each individual step in the
process occurring, we interpret its
significance in the context of the entire
process.
BSE Prevalence in Canada
One of the conditions for being
recognized by APHIS as a BSE minimalrisk region is that the region have in
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place and maintain risk mitigation
measures adequate to prevent
widespread exposure and/or
establishment of the disease. In
classifying Canada as a BSE minimalrisk region in our January 2005 final
rule, we determined that such
mitigation measures are in place and are
maintained in Canada. For the risk
assessment for this proposed rule, we
have made a quantitative estimate of the
prevalence of BSE among Canadian
cattle, using data available to us through
August 15, 2006, and have used this
estimate as part of our quantification of
the risk of transmission of BSE to U.S.
livestock as a result of this rule. Our
estimate indicates a very low level of
BSE prevalence in Canada.
From the time of detection of the first
native case of BSE in Canada in 2003,
nine cases of Canadian-born BSEinfected cattle have been identified, as
follows:
• In May 2003, BSE was confirmed in
a cow in the Province of Alberta. The
cow was determined to have been born
in March 1997.
• In December 2003, BSE was
confirmed in a cow of Canadian origin
in Washington State. The cow was
determined to have been born in April
1997.
• In January 2005, BSE was
confirmed in two cows in the Province
of Alberta. One of the cows was
determined to have been born in
October 1996. The other cow was
determined to have been born in March
1998.
• In January 2006, BSE was
confirmed in a cow in the Province of
Alberta. The cow was determined to
have been born in April 2000.
• In April 2006, BSE was confirmed
in a cow in the Province of British
Columbia. The cow was determined to
have been born in April 2000.
• In June 2006, BSE (of a different
phenotype than that in the other
diagnoses) was confirmed in a cow in
the Province of Manitoba. The cow was
determined to have been born in
approximately 1991.
• In July 2006, BSE was confirmed in
a cow in the Province of Alberta. The
cow was determined to have been born
in April 2002.
• In August 2006, BSE was confirmed
in a cow in the Province of Alberta,
which, according to preliminary
information available to APHIS, was
born in 1996.
Of the nine Canadian-born cows
diagnosed with BSE, three were born
after March 1, 1999, the date we are
proposing as the date of effective
enforcement of a ruminant-to-ruminant
feed ban in Canada. This is not
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unexpected, nor do we consider such
diagnoses in any way to undercut our
conclusion that March 1, 1999, can be
considered the date of effective
enforcement of the feed ban in Canada.
Experience worldwide has
demonstrated that, even in countries
with an effective feed ban in place, BSE
has occurred in cattle born after a feed
ban was implemented. No regulatory
effort can ensure 100 percent
compliance. Isolated incidents, such as
feed made from non-prohibited material
being contaminated with prohibited
material during processing, can occur
due to human error. However, such
isolated incidents are not
epidemiologically significant and do not
contribute to further spread of BSE,
especially when considered in light of
the entire risk pathway and its attendant
risk mitigations.
Based on our determination that
Canada has had in place since March 1,
1999, an effectively enforced feed ban
that continues at a robust level, and the
demonstrated effectiveness of a feed ban
in reducing the likelihood of BSE
transmission, our expectation is that the
prevalence of BSE in Canada will
continue to decline from its present
minimal level. As we discuss in our risk
assessment for this rulemaking, such a
decline would decrease any possibility
of BSE being introduced into the United
States by Canadian cattle, and therefore
decrease the negligible risk of the spread
of BSE to U.S. cattle.
However, in our risk assessment, we
also evaluated scenarios that are less
likely than the one we expect, including
no decrease in BSE prevalence in
Canada over the next 20 years. Even
using this extremely unlikely scenario,
which would mean the continued
detection of additional BSE—infected
Canadian cattle born after March 1,
1999, our conclusion is that the BSE risk
to U.S. livestock due to implementation
of this proposed rule would be
negligible.
We used a mathematical model to
approximate the proportion of BSE—
infected, but not necessarily clinically
diseased, cattle in Canada. Our
mathematical model is discussed in
detail in the risk assessment we
conducted in conjunction with this
proposed rule. Using this mathematical
model, we estimated that the prevalence
of BSE in Canada, based on data
available as of August 15, 2006, is 6.8
animals per every 10 million adult
cattle. (The current adult cattle
population in Canada is approximately
5.9 million animals.) In comparison, the
same model was recently used to
estimate the prevalence of BSE in the
United States. The findings of that
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analysis supported a conclusion that
BSE prevalence in the United States is
below 1 case per million adult cattle,
with a most likely estimate for the
United States of 1 infected animal per
10 million adult cattle (Ref 19).2
Our estimate of BSE prevalence in
Canada incorporates the United
Kingdom data on the effectiveness of a
feed ban. However, it should be noted
that the actual prevalence of BSE in
Canada is most probably lower than our
estimate. This is because, where we
needed to incorporate simplifying
assumptions in our calculations, due to
data uncertainty or the constraints of the
mathematical model itself, we chose
assumptions that, if anything, erred on
the side of assuming greater prevalence.
An example of this is the data we
used related to the diagnosis of BSE in
a cow of Canadian origin in Washington
State in December 2003. Although we
incorporated that case into the number
of Canadian-born cattle that have been
diagnosed with BSE—which increased
the estimate of overall BSE prevalence
in Canada—we did not numerically
increase the total Canadian cattle
population by including in that
country’s number of cattle those animals
of Canadian origin that had been
imported into the United States and that
tested negative for BSE. If those animals
had been included in the figure used for
the total Canadian cattle population, the
estimated BSE prevalence would have
been reduced. Additionally, we did not
include in our calculations cows that
were tested in Canada with negative
results as part of investigations
conducted after the diagnosis of BSE in
cows of Canadian origin.
Projected Future Prevalence Rates in
Canada
Our qualitative conclusion is that, due
to the feed ban in Canada, BSE
prevalence rates will progressively
decline in that country over the next 20
years. However, because we could not
provide an accurate prediction for the
rate at which we would expect
prevalence to decrease, we did not
attempt to numerically represent the
actual expected annual release over the
20 years of our analysis. For example, it
would be guesswork to attempt to
estimate exactly what the prevalence of
BSE in Canada will be in the year 2012
and to use that figure in our
mathematical model, even though,
qualitatively, we consider it very likely
that the prevalence will be less than it
was in August 2006. Therefore, when
creating a scenario for our quantitative
2 The current adult cattle population in the
United States is approximately 42 million animals.
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calculations, we assume that the
prevalence of BSE in Canada will
remain the same for each of the next 20
years as it was in August 2006.
BSE Risk From Live Bovines From
Minimal-Risk Regions
BSE prevalence, however, is just one
factor that must be considered when
determining the risk of BSE
transmission. Requiring, as this rule
would do, that live bovines imported
into the United States from a BSE
minimal-risk region be born after the
date of effective enforcement of a feed
ban, would mitigate the risk of exposure
of U.S. livestock to the BSE agent. As
discussed above, such a requirement
would be consistent with the OIE
recommendation to allow trade in live
cattle from regions that have reported
BSE if such regions have an effective
feed ban in place.
Moreover and importantly, however,
if an infected bovine from a BSE
minimal-risk region were to be imported
into the United States, for that bovine to
transmit infection to a U.S. cow, each in
a series of additional mitigations against
such transmission would have to fail or
be breached. The effect of such
mitigations, discussed in greater detail
in our risk assessment, was also
discussed in the APHIS risk assessment
that was conducted for our January 2005
final rule establishing the category of
BSE minimal-risk regions (Ref 9). In the
risk assessment for this rulemaking, we
assess with regard to imports of live
bovines from Canada (currently the only
region recognized by APHIS as a BSE
minimal-risk region), using updated
data and assumptions, the likelihood of
that series of mitigations failing if this
proposed rule were implemented.
The mitigations that would have to be
breached include:
• Slaughter controls and dead animal
disposal;
• Rendering inactivation;
• Feed manufacturing and use
controls;
• Biologic limitations to
susceptibility.
As discussed in our risk assessments,
these mitigations work in a series and
are multiplicative in their risk-reduction
effects; i.e., however small the chances
that BSE infected material would make
it past the first mitigation, the likelihood
of the material eventually infecting a
U.S. animal would shrink to a
significantly smaller level with each
subsequent mitigation. The risk
assessment for this proposed rule
simulated the impact of these
mitigations on the likelihood of
exposure, establishment, and spread of
BSE infectivity in the United States if
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this proposed rule were to be
implemented, and quantified those
impacts where possible.
Both qualitative and quantitative
methods were used in the exposure
assessment to evaluate the likelihood of
exposing susceptible animals, given the
release of infectivity via imported
bovines. The most likely scenario of the
release assessment included the
assumption that the prevalence of BSE
in the standing adult cattle population
in Canada will continuously decrease.
As explained earlier, this expected
decrease could not be incorporated into
the quantitative methods and, therefore,
the possible exposures were assessed
qualitatively. This qualitative exposure
assessment of the most likely scenario of
the release assessment—decreasing
Canadian prevalence—indicates that the
likelihood of BSE exposure and
establishment in the U.S. cattle
population as a consequence of
infectivity in the United States
introduced via imports from Canada is
negligible.
Even though we concluded that it is
most likely that Canadian prevalence
will decrease, we also considered the
less likely scenarios and quantitatively
analyzed the impact of an assumed
constant prevalence in Canada to
simulate potential BSE exposure in U.S.
cattle. The quantitative model used in
the exposure assessment and its results
include the much less likely scenario
that Canadian BSE prevalence remains
constant through 2026. Because we
believe this situation is much less likely
to occur, we have concluded that
prevalence and release and, therefore,
the number of infected animals
occurring in the United States would be
lower than the values derived from the
quantitative exposure model.
Using a base-case assumption that the
August 2006 BSE prevalence rate in
Canada remains the same over the next
20 years, our quantitative model
predicts the importation of a total of
approximately 19 infected bovines over
that period under the provisions of this
proposed rule. (As discussed above,
however, as a result of implementation
of an effective feed ban, we expect the
already low prevalence in Canada to
decline over time.) The model further
predicts that, if 19 infected bovines
were imported over a 20-year period,
approximately 2 U.S. animals would
consequently be infected during that
period due to such importations. (For
purposes of comparison, the standing
U.S. cattle population in 2006 is
approximately 97 million animals,
which would be multiplied over a 20year period.)
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Of the total number of infected
animals predicted over the next 20 years
(i.e., the total of infected imported
animals and infected U.S. cattle), only a
small fraction (numerically, fewer than
1 (0.67)) would live long enough to
develop clinical signs and be likely to
contain significant levels of infectivity,
due to the lengthy incubation period for
BSE and the fact that most U.S. cattle
are slaughtered before reaching the age
when infectivity is manifested in
clinical signs. Even assuming the
unlikely event of no decline in the
Canadian BSE prevalence rate over the
next 20 years, the predicted results from
our risk assessment indicate that, given
the nature of BSE and the mitigations in
place that prevent its transmission in
the United States, it is highly unlikely
that BSE would become established in
the United States due to implementation
of this proposed rule. And, as noted, we
believe the quantitative component of
our risk assessment overestimates the
likely number of infected animals that
would be present in the United States
over the next 20 years as a result of
importing cattle from Canada under the
provisions of this proposed rule.
Sensitivity Analysis to Account for
Uncertain Parameters
In reaching the conclusions discussed
above, we used what we consider basecase conditions. In order to account for
uncertainty, however, and to allow for
possible divergence from those expected
base case conditions, we have also done
‘‘sensitivity analyses.’’ Sensitivity
analysis evaluates the degree to which
changes in the data used in a model
affect the model’s results. Even
assuming a combination of pessimistic
values (i.e., those generating greater risk
than base-case conditions) for every
model parameter used, we concluded
that factors mitigating BSE risk in the
United States (e.g., at slaughter, during
rendering, regarding feed manufacturing
and use, and biological factors (the
effect of an animal’s age on its BSE
susceptibility)) would prevent BSE
amplification in the United States, and
that any imported infectivity would
disappear from the U.S. cattle
population. A detailed discussion of the
sensitivity analyses is contained in our
risk assessment.
Proposed Regulatory Changes Regarding
Live Bovines
Based on the information available to
us, we believe that allowing the
importation from a BSE minimal-risk
region of live bovines born on or after
the date of effective enforcement of a
ruminant-to-ruminant feed ban in the
region of export would continue to
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protect against the introduction and
spread of BSE in the United States,
while removing unnecessary restrictions
on the importation of such animals, and
are proposing to amend § 93.436(a) of
the regulations to allow such
importations. The regulations would
specify March 1, 1999, as the date of the
effective enforcement a ruminant-toruminant feed ban in Canada, currently
the only country recognized by APHIS
as a BSE minimal-risk region.
We would remove the requirement in
§ 93.436(a)(1) of the current regulations
that live bovines imported from BSE
minimal-risk regions be less than 30
months of age when imported into the
United States and when slaughtered. We
would additionally remove the
requirement in § 93.436(a)(1) and (b)(1)
that such bovines not be pregnant when
imported into the United States and the
provisions in § 93.436 that limit
importation to those bovines imported
either for immediate slaughter or for
movement to a feedlot and then to
slaughter.
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Identification and Movement of Live
Bovines From BSE Minimal-Risk
Regions
Section 93.436 also includes
movement restrictions to help ensure
that all bovines imported from BSE
minimal-risk regions are slaughtered in
the United States before they are 30
months of age. If we remove the
requirement that the bovines be less
than 30 months of age when
slaughtered, certain of the movement
restrictions in § 93.436 would no longer
be necessary. We are proposing to
remove those restrictions that would be
unnecessary, as discussed below.
Permanent Identification of Bovines
Moving to Other Than Immediate
Slaughter
Current § 93.436(b)(3) requires that
bovines imported from a BSE minimalrisk region for other than immediate
slaughter (i.e., for movement to a feedlot
in the United States and then to
slaughter) be permanently and
humanely identified before arrival at the
port of entry with a distinct and legible
mark identifying the exporting country.
The permanent identification required
by the current regulations can be either
a freeze brand, a hot iron brand, or some
other method of identification applied
to each animal’s right hip. In this
proposal, we retain the requirement that
bovines imported from a BSE minimalrisk region for other than immediate
slaughter be permanently marked to
identify the exporting country. In the
event a bovine from a BSE minimal-risk
region were to be diagnosed in the
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United States with BSE, such marking
would expedite initial identification of
the animal’s country of export.
Traceback to the animal’s premises of
origin would then be facilitated by the
animal’s unique individual
identification, which is currently
required under § 93.436(b)(4) and which
would continue to be required under the
provisions of this proposed rule.
However, we are proposing to specify an
alternative to the requirement that the
animal be marked on the right hip by
freeze brand, hot iron, or some other
method. (The current regulations allow
in a general way for alternative means
of identification with the
Administrator’s approval, but don’t
include any specifications for such
alternative means of identification.)
We are proposing to specify in
§ 93.436(b)(2) that, in addition to the
options for permanent identification
already included there, the permanent
identification of bovines imported from
BSE minimal-risk regions can be in the
form of a tattoo on the inside of one ear
of each animal that identifies the
exporting country. Bovines imported
from Canada that are identified by tattoo
would have to be identified with the
letters ‘‘CAN’’.
We proposed in our November 2003
proposed rule to limit the country-ofexport permanent identification to a
tattoo. However, comments from the
public on that proposed rule expressed
concern that tattoos might become
illegible over time, could not be
effectively monitored without
restraining the animal, might become
obscured by dirt and hair, and are not
readily visible—particularly on animals
with dark-skinned ears. In our January
2005 final rule, we agreed that tattoos
might not provide readily visible
identification of the country of origin of
bovines, and set forth instead the
requirement described above.
We continue to believe that tattoos
might not be the most readily visible
means of identification of live animals
in groups of animals. However, as noted
above, the purpose of requiring
permanent identification of the animal’s
country of export in this proposed rule
is to expedite initial identification of an
animal’s country of export in the event
the animal is diagnosed with BSE. Such
a diagnosis cannot be confirmed on a
live animal. Once the animal has been
euthanized or has otherwise died, an ear
tattoo would be an effective means of
identification.
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Sealing of Means of Conveyance and
Movement as a Group; Bovines
Imported for Movement to a Feedlot
We are proposing to remove the
requirement in § 93.436(b)(6) that live
bovines imported from a BSE minimalrisk region for feeding and then
slaughter be imported in a means of
conveyance sealed in the region of
origin with seals of the national
government of the region origin, and be
moved directly from the port of entry as
a group to a feedlot identified on the
APHIS movement documentation
currently required for such animals.
Under this proposed rule, the
importation of bovines from a BSE
minimal-risk region would not be
dependent on whether the animals are
less than 30 months of age when
imported and when slaughtered, but,
rather, would be governed by whether
the animals were born on or after the
date of effective enforcement of a
ruminant-to-ruminant feed ban in the
exporting region. Once imported, the
bovines would be handled in the same
way as U.S. bovines. Therefore, we do
not believe it would be necessary to
retain the provisions in the regulations
that were designed to help ensure that
bovines from a BSE minimal-risk region
are moved directly to a feedlot and are
handled as an easily identifiable group.
Sealing of Means of Conveyance and
Movement as a Group; Bovines
Imported for Immediate Slaughter
We are also proposing to remove the
requirement in § 93.436(a)(6) that the
bovines imported from BSE minimalrisk regions for immediate slaughter be
slaughtered as a group. However, we
would continue to require that bovines
from Canada imported for immediate
slaughter be moved directly as a group
from the port of entry in a sealed means
of conveyance. We would require that
the means of conveyance be sealed at
the port of entry with seals of the U.S.
Government, rather than requiring the
sealing to occur in the region of export
with seals of the national government of
the region of export, as required in the
current regulations. We explain our
rationale for these proposed provisions
in the following paragraphs.
With regard to BSE, the purpose of
requiring in the current regulations that
bovines from BSE minimal-risk regions
that are imported for immediate
slaughter be moved to the slaughtering
establishment in a sealed means of
conveyance is to guard against diversion
of any of the animals between the port
of entry and the slaughtering
establishment, in order to ensure that
the animals are slaughtered as a group
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before 30 months of age. Because this
proposed rule would not require that
the animals be slaughtered before 30
months of age, there would be no BSErelated reason to require sealing of the
means of conveyance.
However, we believe it is necessary to
continue to require sealing of means of
conveyance transporting bovines from
Canada to immediate slaughter as a
mitigative measure against diseases
other than BSE. Cattle imported from
Canada for immediate slaughter are not
subject to tuberculosis and brucellosis
testing requirements that would
otherwise be applied to animals
imported into the United States.
Therefore, we would continue to require
that such cattle be moved directly to
slaughter in a sealed means of
conveyance. (APHIS had been requiring
such sealing at the port of entry even
before our November 2003 proposal
regarding BSE. However, the
requirement for sealing was being done
as APHIS policy, and was not specified
in the regulations.)
Where Sealing Must Take Place
We are proposing to remove the
requirement that the sealing of the
means of conveyance be done in the
region of export. That requirement was
included in the January 2005 final rule
in response to comments from members
of the public who expressed concern
that requiring sealing at the port of entry
could be harmful to the welfare and
quality of the animals, due to delays at
the port of entry. Under the provisions
of this proposed rule, however, we do
not expect undue delays of shipments at
the port of entry. When a means of
conveyance carrying bovines for
immediate slaughter arrives at the U.S.
port of entry, APHIS inspectors would
confirm that the animals are as
described on the certificate that must
accompany the animals being imported,
but generally would not require that the
animals be offloaded from the means of
conveyance. Therefore, requiring that
the sealing of the means of conveyance
take place at the port of entry would not
cause measurable delay of the shipment.
Further, sealing at the port of entry
rather than in the region of export will
reduce the time the animals will need
to be contained in a sealed means of
conveyance and reduce the likelihood
that a seal will need to be broken
between the time it is applied and the
arrival of the animals at a slaughtering
establishment.
APHIS Form VS 17–130
Currently, § 93.436(b)(8) requires that
bovines imported from BSE minimalrisk regions for movement to feeding
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and then slaughter be accompanied
from the port of entry to the feedlot by
APHIS Form VS 17–130 or other
movement documentation deemed
acceptable by the Administrator, which
must identify the physical location of
the feedlot, the individual responsible
for the movement of the animals, and
the individual identification of the
animal. Because, under this proposed
rule, bovines imported from a BSE
minimal-risk region that are not moved
for immediate slaughter would not be
limited to moving to a feedlot and then
slaughter, it would no longer be
necessary to require that the bovines be
accompanied by a VS Form 17–130 that
identifies the feedlot of destination. The
other necessary information on the VS
Form 17–130–e.g., the individual
responsible for the movement of the
animals and the individual
identification of the animal-is already
required on the health certificate that
must accompany the animals under
§ 93.405. Therefore, we are proposing to
remove the requirement that live
bovines imported from BSE minimalrisk regions for other than immediate
slaughter be accompanied by VS Form
17–130.
Transport From Feedlots to Slaughter
We are proposing to remove the
requirement in § 93.436(b)(9) that the
bovines imported from BSE minimalrisk regions for other than immediate
slaughter remain at a feedlot until
transported from the feedlot to a
recognized slaughtering establishment
for slaughter, and we are proposing to
remove the requirement in
§ 93.436(b)(10) that the bovines be
moved directly from the feedlot to a
recognized slaughtering establishment
in conveyances sealed at the feedlot
with seals of the U.S. Government. We
are also proposing to remove the
requirement in § 93.436(b)(11) that the
bovines be accompanied from the
feedlot to a recognized slaughtering
establishment by APHIS Form VS 1–27
or other movement documentation
deemed acceptable by the
Administrator, identifying the physical
location of the recognized slaughtering
establishment, the individual
responsible for the movement of the
animals, and the individual
identification of the animal. This
requirement would not be necessary
because, under this proposed rule, cattle
imported for other than immediate
slaughter would not be limited to those
less than 30 months of age that are
moved directly to a feedlot and then to
slaughter.
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1111
Immediate Slaughter
Section 93.420 contains provisions
regarding the importation of ruminants
from Canada for immediate slaughter,
and applies to all ruminants from
Canada imported for immediate
slaughter, including sheep, goats,
bovines, and other types of ruminants.
However, as applied to sheep, goats, and
bovines, many of the requirements in
§ 93.420 are duplicative of provisions
set forth in § 93.419 for sheep and goats
and in § 93.436 for bovines. Because the
majority of provisions in the current
regulations regarding the importation of
bovines and sheep and goats from
Canada for immediate slaughter are
contained in § 93.436 and § 93.419,
respectively, we are proposing to
rewrite § 93.420 so that it applies only
to ruminants imported from Canada for
immediate slaughter other than bovines,
sheep, and goats. Any provisions of
current § 93.420 that are still applicable
to bovines, sheep, and goats under this
proposed rule and that do not already
appear in § 93.436 or § 93.419 would be
moved to those sections. 9 CFR 93.405.
In accordance with § 93.405 of the
regulations, bovines, sheep, and goats
imported from BSE minimal-risk regions
must be accompanied by a health
certificate. Among the information that
must be recorded on the health
certificate is the specific physical
location of the feedlot or recognized
slaughtering establishment where the
ruminants are to be moved after
importation. Because, under this
proposed rule, bovines imported from
BSE minimal-risk regions would not be
limited to moving to a feedlot or
slaughtering establishment, we are
proposing to change that provision in
§ 93.405(a)(4) to refer to ‘‘destination,’’
rather than to ‘‘feedlot or recognized
slaughtering establishment.’’
B. Bovine Blood and Blood Products
Blood and blood products can be
divided into two main groups:
1. In addition to whole blood, those
products derived from blood that are
composed of cells, such as red cell
concentrate and platelets; and
2. Plasma (that portion of blood that
is cell-free) and products derived from
plasma, such as serum (plasma with
fibrinogen and clotting factors
removed), clotting factors,
immunoglobins and albumin (Ref 20).
Fetal bovine serum (FBS) is the most
commonly imported blood-derived
commodity. FBS is serum derived from
blood of bovine fetuses. As serum, it is
the cell-free portion of blood with
fibrinogen and clotting factors removed.
It is used in tissue culture media,
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including those used to produce
pharmaceuticals and biological
products, such as vaccines, and cannot
be derived synthetically.
BSE Risk Associated With Bovine Blood
and Blood Products From BSE MinimalRisk Regions
Our January 2005 final rule did not
include provisions for the importation
of bovine blood and blood products
from BSE minimal-risk regions. We
considered it advisable at the time to
continue to prohibit the importation of
blood and blood products from such
regions (with the exception of those
commodities that were already allowed
to be imported for restricted use from
BSE-affected regions under § 95.4(b) and
(d)).
In consultation with FDA, we have
continued to assess the risk of BSE from
blood and blood products from BSE
minimal-risk regions. Based on the
conclusions of our assessment, we are
proposing to amend the regulations in
§ 95.4 to allow the importation of blood
and blood products from such regions
under specified conditions, which we
discuss below.
Consistent with the approach of the
risk assessment conducted for this
proposed rule with regard to live
animals and bovine small intestine, the
risk estimation for blood and blood
products relies on a comprehensive
understanding of the multiple steps in
the risk pathway. Thus, to understand
the likelihood of BSE spreading and
becoming established in the United
States as a result of importing blood and
blood products from a BSE minimal-risk
region (currently only Canada), we
examine the entire risk pathway. We
evaluate the evidence from research to
date—including research that has not
detected infectivity in bovine blood and
research in other species where
infectivity has been detected—in the
context of this larger risk pathway.
Analysis of this risk pathway, discussed
below, is the basis for our proposal to
allow, under specified conditions, the
importation of blood and blood
products derived from bovines from
BSE minimal-risk regions.
One of the conditions for being
recognized by APHIS as a BSE minimalrisk region is that the region have in
place and enforce risk mitigation
measures adequate to prevent
widespread exposure and/or
establishment of the disease, so that,
even if one of the very few infected
bovines in a BSE minimal-risk region
were a source of imported blood or
blood products, additional factors
would act to further diminish the
likelihood of the BSE agent’s entering
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the United States in bovine blood or
blood products.
Perhaps the most important factor is
that, in research using infected bovines,
infectivity has not been detected in
cattle blood or any tested derivatives
(Ref 21). This finding is applicable to
clotted blood and fetal calf blood, and
to products derived from whole blood,
such as serum or buffy coat (the white
cell fraction of centrifuged whole
blood). As noted below, research in
other species with BSE or other TSE
agents has demonstrated infectivity in
blood, and we use these studies to
further inform our risk assessment. In
addition, because blood components—
such as FBS and bovine serum albumin
(BSA)—are used in the manufacture of
vaccines, it is worthwhile to address
injection vs. oral consumption as a route
of exposure.
Injection presents a different risk
pathway than does oral consumption of
BSE-contaminated bovine materials.
The route of exposure can affect the risk
of disease transmission. The relative
efficiencies of different transmission
routes of BSE have been reported to be,
in decreasing order, intracerebral
(injecting directly into the brain),
intravenous (injecting directly into a
vein), intraperitoneal (injected directly
into the abdominal cavity),
subcutaneous/intramuscular (injecting
below the skin and/or into a muscle),
and oral. It is estimated that the
subcutaneous/intramuscular route of
transmission requires 10 times the dose
of a TSE agent to cause infection as does
the intracerebral route and that oral/
intragastric transmission requires 10
times the dose needed for
subcutaneous/intramuscular
transmission. In other words, injection
of a BSE agent into an animal is a more
efficient way of transmitting the disease
agent to that animal than getting it into
the animal through its food.
The difficulty in examining the
possibility of BSE transmission through
injection is that BSE infectivity has not
been detected in unprocessed bovine
blood. We generally avoid extrapolating
from studies of TSEs other than BSE in
species other than bovines; however, in
order to consider the only available
evidence, we elected to use such studies
as potential indicators of the behavior of
BSE in cattle blood if, contrary to
current evidence, it were to be present
at previously undetectable levels. These
studies are discussed in detail in our
risk assessment.
It is important to restate that no
studies have demonstrated BSE
infectivity in bovine blood and that we
considered studies that involved TSEs
other than BSE and species other than
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bovines. If, contrary to current research,
BSE infectivity were to be distributed in
bovine blood, research indicates that the
BSE infectivity would likely be highest
in the cellular components of the blood.
These cellular fractions of the whole
blood, both red and white cells, are
excluded from the blood when
harvesting FBS and BSA for use in the
preparation of vaccines and drugs.
Another component of the pathway of
interest consists of the ways in which
bovine blood that is collected might in
some way become contaminated with
SRMs at the time of collection,
particularly in a slaughter environment.
To guard against such possible
contamination, it would be necessary to
collect the blood in a closed system (a
system in which the blood is conveyed
directly from the animal in a closed
conduit to a closed receptacle) or in an
otherwise hygienic manner.
Additionally, to prevent blood collected
from a fetal calf from becoming
contaminated with SRMs, the uterus
from a slaughtered dam should be
removed intact and taken to a separate
area away from the slaughtering area of
the facility. Further, pithing or use of air
injection stunning devices at slaughter
could cause macro-emboli from higher
risk tissues from the animal’s central
nervous system to be introduced into
the animal’s circulatory system.
Prohibiting the use of these processes is
necessary to prevent contamination of
the blood.
Proposed Regulatory Changes Regarding
Blood and Blood Products
Currently, the regulations in § 95.4
specify that only the following blood
products for the following uses are
eligible for importation from any region
listed in § 94.18(a) (including (a)(1)
through (a)(3)), based on the fact that the
manner in which they are used makes
it highly unlikely they will come in
contact with ruminants in the United
States:
• Under § 95.4(b), serum derived from
ruminants that have been in any region
listed in § 94.18(a) may be imported into
the United States for scientific,
educational, or research purposes if the
APHIS Administrator determines that
the importation can be made under
conditions that will prevent the
introduction of BSE into United States.
Such serum is allowed importation into
the United States only if it is
accompanied by an import permit
issued by APHIS in accordance with 9
CFR 104.4 (a U.S. Veterinary Biological
Product Permit), and must be moved
and handled as specified on the permit.
• Under § 95.4(d), serum albumin (a
blood plasma protein) derived from
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ruminants that have been in any region
listed in § 94.18(a) may be imported into
the United States for use as an
ingredient in cosmetics (provided FDA
import requirements are also met), if the
person importing the article obtains a
United States Veterinary Permit for
Importation and Transportation of
Controlled Materials and Organisms and
Vectors, which states the intended use
of the article and the name and address
of the consignee in the United States.
All other serum and serum albumin
from regions listed in § 94.18(a) is
prohibited importation into the United
States.
The regulations in § 95.4 regarding
BSE do not specifically reference blood
and blood products other than those
described above—either to prohibit or to
allow their importation—largely
because commercial interest in
importing blood products from regions
listed in § 94.18(a) has focused on serum
and serum albumin. By policy, however,
APHIS has prohibited the importation of
any blood and blood products from
§ 94.18(a) regions, other than those
described above.
Based on our evaluation of the BSE
risk associated with bovine blood and
blood products from BSE minimal-risk
regions, we believe that bovine blood
and blood products may be imported
from BSE minimal-risk regions if
properly protected against
contamination. We are, therefore,
proposing the following changes to the
regulations at § 95.4(e).
In general, blood collected from
bovines can be obtained in one of three
ways: It can be collected from an animal
that has been slaughtered, it can be
collected from a live donor animal
(similar to human blood collection), and
it can be collected from the fetal calf of
a bovine dam that has been slaughtered.
For all of the above three manners of
collection, we would require that the
blood be collected in a closed system or
in an otherwise hygienic manner that
prevents contamination of the blood
with SRMs. This requirement is
necessary to ensure that the blood is not
contaminated after collection.
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Prohibited Methods of Stunning
When a bovine is slaughtered as part
of the process of blood collection, we
would require in § 95.4(e)(1)(ii) and
(e)(2)(ii) that the slaughtered animal was
not subjected to a stunning process with
a device injecting compressed air or gas
into the cranial cavity, or subjected to a
pithing process. Either of those
processes create the possibility that
macro-emboli from higher risk tissues
from the animal’s central nervous
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system might be introduced into the
animal’s circulatory system.
Fetal Calves
For blood collected from a fetal calf,
we would require in § 95.4(e)(2)(iii) that
the uterus be removed from the
slaughtered dam’s abdominal cavity
intact and taken to a separate area
sufficiently removed from the
slaughtering area of the facility to
ensure that the fetal blood is not
contaminated with SRMs when
collected.
Animal Health Requirements
Also, although it is extremely unlikely
that any given bovine in a BSE minimalrisk region would be infected with BSE,
because of the often undifferentiated
clinical signs of BSE (i.e., clinical signs
that could be attributed to either BSE or
some other disease(s)), we consider it
prudent to disqualify from importation
into the United States blood and blood
products drawn from live bovines
showing signs of any type of disease.
Therefore, we would require in
§ 95.4(e)(1)(ii) and (e)(2)(ii) that bovines
slaughtered as part of the process of
collection (e.g., when blood is collected
directly from the slaughtered animal or
from the fetal calf of a slaughtered dam)
have passed ante-mortem inspection to
ensure that the animals are clinically
normal and have no obvious signs of
disease. If the blood is collected from a
live bovine donor, the donor animal
must be free of clinical signs of disease.
We are proposing to add language to
§ 95.4 to prohibit the importation of the
blood and blood products and
derivatives of blood and blood products,
except as specifically provided in § 95.4.
This would codify current policy.
Required Certification
We would require in § 95.4 that the
shipment of blood or blood products to
the United States be accompanied by an
original certificate signed by a full-time
salaried veterinary officer of the
national government of the region of
origin, or issued by a veterinarian
designated by or accredited by the
national government of the region of
origin, attesting that the veterinarian
issuing the certificate was authorized to
do so. The certificate must state that the
applicable requirements of § 95.4 have
been met.
C. Small Intestine of Bovines
The requirement established in the
January 2005 final rule for removal of
the entire small intestine of bovines
from BSE minimal-risk regions was
consistent with the FSIS regulations at
that time, which govern the slaughter of
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1113
animals in the United States for meat
and meat products for human
consumption. The FSIS regulations also
apply to slaughtering establishments in
other countries that wish to export meat
to the United States. FSIS regulations (9
CFR 327.2) provide that a country can
be considered eligible to export meat
and meat products to the United States
only if it maintains a meat inspection
program equivalent to that of the United
States. A country must demonstrate
‘‘equivalence’’ by implementing
measures that provide the same level of
protection against food hazards as is
achieved domestically. FSIS conducts
audits of eligible foreign countries’ meat
inspection systems at least annually. At
the time of our January 2005 final rule,
FSIS required that the entire small
intestine be removed and be disposed of
as inedible, in order to ensure removal
of the entire distal ileum.
Research Regarding BSE and the
Gastrointestinal System of Cattle
As discussed in our risk assessment
for this proposed rule, in studies
regarding the pathogenesis of BSE in the
gastrointestinal system of cattle
experimentally and naturally exposed to
the BSE agent, no BSE infectivity was
detected at any time in the esophagus,
reticulum, rumen, abomasum, proximal
small intestine, proximal colon, distal
colon, and rectum (Ref 21). The studies
demonstrated that, if infectivity in
intestinal tissues of bovines (other than
distal ileum) exists, it is below the level
of detection by mouse bioassay (i.e., the
insertion of tissue with infectivity from
a bovine into a mouse). Based on these
studies, we have concluded that
intestine other than the distal ileum is
highly unlikely to contain
epidemiologically significant levels of
infectivity, if any infectivity is present
at all.
These studies have been compelling
to the international scientific
community, and the OIE has based
international trade guidelines on the
likelihood that the distal ileum, but not
the remainder of the bovine intestine, is
a potential source of BSE infectivity.
The distal ileum is the only portion of
the bovine intestine for which OIE
recommends any trade restrictions
because of BSE.
FSIS and FDA Regulations Regarding
the Small Intestine
On September 7, 2005, FSIS
published in the Federal Register an
interim final rule that allowed for use as
human food, under certain conditions,
beef small intestine, excluding the distal
ileum, derived from cattle slaughtered
in official U.S. establishments or in
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certified foreign establishments in
countries listed by FSIS in 9 CFR
327.2(b) as eligible to export meat
products to the United States (Ref 22).
FSIS also provided that it will permit
casings derived from beef small
intestine, excluding the distal ileum, to
be used as containers of meat food
products only if the casings are derived
from cattle that have been inspected and
passed in an official U.S. establishment
or a certified foreign establishment.
Also on September 7, 2005, FDA
published an interim final rule (Ref 23)
and request for comments in which it
provided that small intestine is not
considered a prohibited cattle material
if the distal ileum is removed by a
qualifying procedure. FSIS imposed a
similar requirement in its interim rule.
The small intestine of cattle attaches
at its most proximal end (closest to the
mouth) to the most distal (closest to the
anus) chamber of the ruminant stomach.
The most proximal segment of small
intestine is the duodenum. Distal to the
duodenum is the very long jejunum.
The duodenum and jejunum are used
for natural beef casings. Distal to the
jejunum is the ileum, which is
estimated to be 2- to 3-feet long (Ref 24).
The distal-most portion of the ileum, or
‘‘distal ileum,’’ is estimated to be 12- to
18-inches long. It attaches at the most
proximal portion of the large intestine,
the cecum, at what is termed the
‘‘ileocecal junction’’ or ‘‘ileocecal
orifice.’’ Just distal to the ileocecal
junction is the cecocolic junction.
FSIS and FDA have determined that
the distal ileum can be effectively
removed from the rest of the small
intestine (Ref 22 and 23). They have also
determined that the remaining small
intestine can be used as human food if
the distal ileum is removed (Ref 22 and
23). To ensure complete removal of the
distal ileum, both FSIS and FDA require
the removal of at least 80 inches of the
uncoiled and trimmed small intestine as
measured from the cecocolic junction,
unless the processing establishment has
demonstrated that an alternative method
is effective in ensuring complete
removal of the distal ileum. Based on
bovine anatomy as described above, we
concur that removal of at least 80 inches
of the uncoiled and trimmed small
intestine as measured from the cecocolic
junction will remove the distal ileum.
Proposed Regulatory Changes Regarding
Bovine Small Intestine
In our January 2005 final rule, we
provided in § 94.19 that one of the
conditions for the importation of meat,
meat byproducts, and meat food
products derived from bovines from
BSE minimal-risk regions is that the
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commodity have been derived from
bovines from which the SRMs were
removed at slaughter. This same
condition is set forth in § 95.4(g) with
regard to offal derived from bovines
from BSE minimal-risk regions.
The regulations at § 94.19 also
require, in addition to the removal of
SRMs, the removal of the entire small
intestine, even though only part of the
small intestine (the distal ileum) has
been determined to be an SRM.
Because it is possible to effectively
separate and remove the distal ileum
from the remainder of a bovine’s small
intestine, we are proposing to remove
the requirements in § 94.19(a)(2), (b)(2),
and (f) that bovine meat, meat
byproducts, meat food products, and
whole or half carcasses intended for
importation from BSE minimal-risk
regions be derived from animals from
which the entire small intestine was
removed at slaughter. We would require
instead only that SRMs have been
removed. (Under FSIS regulations, in
effect, the distal ileum SRM includes 80
inches of the uncoiled and trimmed
small intestine as measured from the
cecocolic junction, unless the
processing establishment has
demonstrated that an alternative method
is effective in ensuring complete
removal of the distal ileum.) Similarly,
we are proposing to remove the
importation condition in § 95.4(g)(1)(i)
(which we are proposing in this
document to redesignate as
§ 95.4(h)(1)(i)) that offal derived from
bovines from BSE minimal-risk regions
be derived from animals from which the
small intestine was removed, and would
provide instead that the offal must have
been derived from bovines from which
SRMs were removed.
D. Bovine Casings
Currently, § 96.2(b) prohibits the
importation of casings, except stomachs,
from bovines and other ruminants that
originated in or were processed in any
region listed in § 94.18(a), which
includes BSE minimal-risk regions. In
§ 96.1, animal casings are defined as
intestines, stomachs, esophagi, and
urinary bladders from cattle, sheep,
swine, or goats that are used to encase
processed meats in foods such as
sausage.
As explained above, only the distal
ileum of the small intestine of bovines
presents a BSE risk, and FSIS and FDA
have established procedures for
effective removal of the distal ileum
from the remainder of the small
intestine. There is no scientific evidence
of BSE infectivity in ruminant esophagi
or urinary bladders.
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Proposed Regulatory Changes Regarding
Bovine Casings
Therefore, we are proposing to amend
§ 96.2 of the regulations to allow the
importation of casings derived from
bovines from BSE minimal-risk regions
if the casings are derived from that part
of the small intestine that is eligible for
use as human food in accordance with
the requirements established by FSIS at
9 CFR 310.22 and FDA at 21 CFR 189.5
and 21 CFR 700.27. We are also
proposing to allow the importation from
BSE minimal-risk regions of casings
derived from bovine esophagi and
urinary bladders.
Executive Order 12866 and Regulatory
Flexibility Act
This proposed rule has been reviewed
under Executive Order 12866. The rule
has been determined to be economically
significant for the purposes of Executive
Order 12866 and, therefore, has been
reviewed by the Office of Management
and Budget.
Under the Animal Health Protection
Act of 2002 (7 U.S.C. 8301 et seq.), the
Secretary of Agriculture is authorized to
promulgate regulations if he or she
determines that the regulations are
necessary to prevent the introduction
into or dissemination within the United
States of any pest or disease of livestock.
This proposed rule would amend the
regulations by establishing conditions
for the importation of the following
commodities from regions that present a
minimal risk of introducing BSE into
the United States: Live bovines for any
use born on or after a date determined
by APHIS to be the date of effective
enforcement of a ruminant-to-ruminant
feed ban in the region of export (for live
bovines from Canada, that date is March
1, 1999); blood and blood products
derived from bovines; and casings and
part of the small intestine derived from
bovines.
In accordance with Executive Order
12866 and the Regulatory Flexibility
Act, we assessed the potential economic
costs and benefits of this rule and
potential effects on small entities. Below
is a summary of our economic analysis.
The full economic analysis may be
viewed on the Regulations.gov Web site
or in our reading room. (Instructions for
accessing Regulations.gov and
information on the location and hours of
the reading room are provided under the
heading ADDRESSES at the beginning of
this proposed rule.) In addition, copies
may be obtained by calling or writing to
the individuals listed under FOR
FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT.
We do not have enough data for a
comprehensive analysis of the potential
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economic effects of this proposed rule
on small entities. Therefore, in
accordance with 5 U.S.C. 603, we have
performed an initial regulatory
flexibility analysis for this proposed
rule. We are inviting comments about
this proposed rule as it relates to small
entities. In particular, we are interested
in determining the number and type of
small entities that would incur benefits
or costs from the implementation of this
proposed rule and the economic effect
of those benefits or costs.
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The Proposed Rule and This Analysis
The purpose of this proposed rule is
to remove certain restrictions on the
importation of certain bovine
commodities from BSE minimal-risk
regions. APHIS has determined that the
restrictions are unwarranted to prevent
the introduction and dissemination of
BSE into the United States from such
regions.
The risk assessment for this proposed
rule analyzes the likelihood that
importing those commodities from
Canada would introduce and
disseminate BSE into the U.S. cattle
population. The likelihood of release
(introduction of the disease agent), the
likelihood of exposure for susceptible
animals given release, and the
magnitude of consequences given
release and exposure are evaluated
either quantitatively or qualitatively.
The risk estimation that combines these
components concludes that the BSE risk
posed by the proposed rule would be
negligible.
This preliminary regulatory impact
analysis addresses expected economic
effects of allowing resumption of
imports from Canada of the
commodities listed above. Expected
benefits and costs are examined in
accordance with Executive Order 12866.
Expected economic impacts for small
entities are also considered, as required
by the Regulatory Flexibility Act. Effects
for Canadian and other foreign entities
are not addressed in this analysis.
However, the Agency expects
reestablished access to U.S. markets to
benefit Canadian producers and
suppliers of commodities included in
the proposed rule and, for at least one
commodity, cull cattle/processing beef,
to result in partial displacement of
processing beef imports from other
sources.
Analytical Approach
We expect the proposed rule to have
effects for several different categories of
commodities, and benefits to exceed
costs overall. Using projected baseline
data for the United States and projected
imports from Canada with and without
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the rule, we compute impacts for four
commodity categories: Cull cattle/
processing beef would be the
commodity primarily affected, due to
the resumption of cull cattle imports
from Canada; and feeder cattle, fed
cattle, and fed beef would be affected
secondarily, as Canada’s slaughter mix
adjusts to reestablished exports of
culled cows, bulls, and stags to the
United States.
The demand for cull cattle is derived
from the demand for processing beef,
and only a small portion of the U.S.
supply of processing beef would come
from imported Canadian cull cattle.
Therefore, cull cattle and processing
beef are combined into a single
commodity category. Processing beef
refers to lean, boneless beef that is
mixed with trimmings from grain-fed
cattle to produce ground beef, thereby
complementing the domestic
production of fed beef. Demand for
processing beef is high, as reflected in
robust ground beef sales. Despite higher
domestic cull cattle slaughter in past
months in response to drought
conditions, U.S. production of
processing beef is currently trending
low because the industry is in the early
stages of the expansion phase of the
cattle cycle.
Historically, Canada has been a major
trading partner of the United States in
livestock and meat. In 2002, prior to the
discovery of BSE in Canada, the United
States imported 1.7 million live bovines
from Canada, valued at more than $1.1
billion and accounting for more than 67
percent of U.S. total bovine imports.
That same year, the United States
imported from Canada 382,110 MT of
bovine meat, also valued at $1.1 billion,
which comprised about 44 percent of
bovine meat imports from all sources.
U.S.-Canadian cattle and beef trade
changed dramatically following
Canada’s May 2003 BSE discovery.
Canada’s cattle population increased
rapidly following the loss of export
markets for its cattle and beef. Its excess
cow population and the strong U.S.
demand for cull cattle/processing beef
underlie imports of Canadian cull cattle
expected to occur with this rule.
We evaluate welfare impacts of the
proposed rule for cull cattle/processing
beef, feeder cattle, fed cattle, and fed
beef using a net trade, non-spatial
partial equilibrium model.3 Present and
3 A complete description of the model is provided
in: Forsythe, K.W. ‘‘An Economic Model for
Routine Analysis of the Welfare Effects of
Regulatory Changes.’’ V3.00. U.S. Department of
Agriculture, Animal and Plant Health Inspection
Service, Veterinary Services, Centers for
Epidemiology and Animal Health, April 20, 2005
(draft). It can be found at https://
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1115
annualized values of welfare gains and
losses for the 5-year period, 2007–2011,
are computed using 3 percent and 7
percent discount rates. The present and
annualized values are expressed in 2006
and 2001 dollars.
For five other commodity categories—
breeding cattle, vealers and slaughter
calves, bison, bovine casings and small
intestine products, and bovine blood
and blood products—we do not
quantitatively model expected effects of
the proposed rule. For the first three of
these categories, changes in import
quantities projected under the proposed
rule are very small, suggesting that
impacts for U.S. entities would not be
significant. For bovine casings, small
intestine products, and blood and blood
products, insufficient information about
the commodities and quantities that
would be imported and levels of U.S.
production and consumption prevents
us from modeling expected effects of the
rule.
Price and Quantity Impacts for the
Modeled Commodities
The proposed rule is expected to
result in the resumption of cull cattle
imports from Canada. In addition,
declines in imports of feeder cattle, fed
cattle, and fed beef are expected to
occur as a result of the resumption of
cull cattle imports affecting the
slaughter mix in Canada. The baseline,
along with the projected changes, are
presented in Table VIII, below. Relative
prices highlight the different situations
for the Canadian and U.S. cull cattle
markets. For example, in September,
2006, the price of slaughter cows in
Canada was only 70 percent of the
comparable U.S. price.
Cull cattle/processing beef. With the
rule, imports of cull cattle from Canada
would result in price declines for
processing beef. Over the period of
analysis, the annual decrease in the
price of processing beef, all things
equal, is expected to average about 4.3
percent, ranging from declines of $5 per
cwt (hundredweight, 100 pounds) in
2007, to $3 per cwt in 2009. In response
to this price effect, wholesale demand
for processing beef would increase by an
average of about 114 million pounds per
year over the period of analysis, and
domestic supply would decrease by an
annual average of about 131 million
pounds.
Feeder cattle, fed cattle, and fed beef.
Imports of feeder cattle, fed cattle, and
fed beef are projected to decrease
because of the rule. Of these
commodities affected secondarily, the
www.aphis.usda.gov/peer_review/content/
printable_version/bas_model_econOnly_apr20.pdf.
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largest impacts would be for feeder
cattle. We estimate that the price of
feeder cattle would increase in 2007 by
about 0.3 percent, from $733 to about
$735 per head in 2006 dollars. Over the
5-year period of analysis, the annual
increase in feeder cattle prices
attributable to the proposed rule, all
things equal, is expected to average
about 0.6 percent, ranging from about
$2.20 per head in 2007, to about $4.60
per head in 2010. In response to these
price increases, there would be an
average annual decrease in the demand
for feeder cattle of about 152,000 head
over the period of analysis, and an
average annual increase in domestic
supply of about 66,000 head.
For fed cattle, our analysis indicates
that the price would increase by less
than 0.1 percent in 2007. Over the 5year period, the annual increase in fed
cattle prices attributable to the proposed
rule, all things equal, is expected to
average less than 0.2 percent, ranging in
2006 dollars from 35 cents per head in
2007, to about $1.90 per head in 2009.
We estimate that these small changes in
price would cause the demand for fed
cattle to decrease by an average of about
33,000 head per year and the domestic
supply of fed cattle to increase by an
average of 26,000 head per year.
Impacts of the proposed rule for fed
beef are expected to be very small, with
the price increasing in 2007 by less than
0.3 percent, or about 36 cents per cwt
carcass weight equivalent from a base
price of $142. Over the 5-year period of
analysis, the increase in fed beef prices,
all things equal, is expected to average
less than 0.1 percent, with no effect
projected for the last 3 years.
Clearly, the largest price effects would
result from the resumption of cull cattle
imports from Canada, an expected
outcome matched by estimated welfare
impacts.
Welfare Effects for the Modeled
Commodities
In this analysis, consumption and
production have commodity-specific
definitions that differ from their
commonly understood meanings. These
definitions are central to interpreting
the changes in welfare, and are shown
in Table I. They imply that the proposed
rule may have mixed effects for at least
some entities in the affected industries.
TABLE I.—DEFINITIONS OF CONSUMERS AND PRODUCERS FOR THE MODELED COMMODITY CATEGORIES
Commodity category
Consumers
Producers
Feeder cattle ......................................................
Fed beef .............................................................
Buyers of cattle for feedlot feeding in the
United States.
Buyers of fed cattle for slaughter in the United
States.
U.S. buyers of processing beef at the wholesale level.
U.S. buyers of fed beef at the wholesale level
Sellers of U.S.-raised cattle for feedlot feeding
in the United States.
Sellers of U.S.-sourced fed cattle for slaughter
in the United States.
Sellers of U.S.-produced processing beef at
the wholesale level.
Sellers of U.S.-produced fed beef at the
wholesale level.
Cull cattle/processing beef. Projected
cull cattle imports from Canada are
converted to their processing beef
equivalent using projected carcass
weights for cows, bulls, and stags, as
shown in the note to Table II.
Consumers (buyers of processing beef at
the wholesale level) can be expected to
benefit from welfare gains and
producers (sellers of processing beef at
the wholesale level) can be expected to
bear welfare losses due to the cull cattle
imports. The present value of the
welfare changes in 2006 dollars when
using a 3 percent discount rate would be
$1.24 billion in consumer gains, $657
million in producer losses, for a net
benefit of about $587 million.
Annualized values over the 5 years, in
2006 dollars when using a 3 percent
discount rate, would be consumer gains
of $271 million, producer losses of $143
million, and net benefits of $128
million.
Fed cattle ...........................................................
Cull cattle/processing beef .................................
TABLE II.—CULL CATTLE/PROCESSING BEEF: PRESENT AND ANNUALIZED VALUES OF WELFARE CHANGES WITH THE
PROPOSED RULE, 2007–2011
Discount
rate
(percent)
Changes in welfare
Consumer
Producer
Net
(Thousand dollars)
Present value:
2006 Dollars .............................................................................................................
2001 Dollars .............................................................................................................
Annualized value:
2006 Dollars .............................................................................................................
ycherry on PROD1PC64 with PROPOSALS3
2001 Dollars .............................................................................................................
3
7
3
7
1,243,147
1,120,778
1,080,856
974,488
¥656,540
¥590,070
¥570,814
¥513,038
586,607
530,708
510,043
461,450
3
7
3
7
271,447
273,347
236,010
237,669
¥143,358
¥143,912
¥124,640
¥125,125
128,089
129,435
111,370
112,544
Note: Consumers are U.S. buyers of processing beef at the wholesale level; producers are sellers of U.S.-produced processing beef at the
wholesale level. Cull cattle imports from Canada in thousand head are converted to processing beef in million pounds carcass weight equivalent
by multiplying by the following carcass weights (pounds) for cows and bulls/stags, respectively: 2007, 576 and 888; 2008, 579 and 893; 2009,
583 and 899; 2010, 586 and 904; and 2011, 590 and 909 (Source: Expert opinion, USDA Economic Research Service, Market and Trade Economics Division, Animal Products, Grains, and Oil Seeds Branch).
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Federal Register / Vol. 72, No. 5 / Tuesday, January 9, 2007 / Proposed Rules
Welfare changes for the cull cattle/
processing beef category dominate the
modeled effects. The relatively large
impacts are not unexpected, given that
this is the one modeled commodity
category for which imports from Canada
would be newly reestablished. The
numbers of cull cattle that would be
imported with the rule, projected to
average 545,000 cows and 66,000 bulls
and stags per year, 2007–2011, are much
larger than the projected average annual
declines in feeder cattle (218,000 head)
and fed cattle (59,000 head).
Feeder cattle, fed cattle, and fed beef.
Fewer feeder cattle and fed cattle and
less fed beef are projected to be
imported from Canada with the rule
than would enter without the rule, and
the model indicates for these
commodities gains in producer welfare
(higher prices and less competition from
Canadian suppliers) and losses in
consumer welfare (higher prices and
fewer feeder, fed cattle, and less fed beef
available for purchase). Of these three
commodities, the largest impact would
be for feeder cattle, with estimated
producer welfare gains of $494 million
and consumer welfare losses of $518
million, for a net loss of $24 million
(2006 dollars, discounted at 3 percent).
Combined welfare effects. Effects of
the proposed rule for cull cattle/
processing beef, feeder cattle, fed cattle,
and fed beef are summed in Table III.
TABLE III.—PRESENT AND ANNUALIZED VALUES OF COMBINED WELFARE CHANGES FOR THE MODELED COMMODITIES
WITH THE PROPOSED RULE, 2007–2011
Changes in welfare 1
Discount
rate
(percent)
Consumer
Producer
Net
(Thousand dollars)
Present value:
2006 Dollars .............................................................................................................
3
7
3
7
Annualized value:
2006 Dollars .............................................................................................................
2001 Dollars .............................................................................................................
1 Combined
111,662
96,136
97,526
133,266
556,401
503,876
483,775
435,714
3
7
3
7
2001 Dollars .............................................................................................................
444,740
407,740
386,246
302,447
97,110
99,452
84,339
86,339
24,384
23,457
21,296
20,514
121,494
122,908
105,634
106,851
welfare changes for cull cattle/processing beef, feeder cattle, fed cattle, and fed beef.
The analysis tells us that the present
value of the combined welfare changes
in 2006 dollars when using a 3 percent
discount rate, for example, would be
$445 million in consumer gains, $112
million in producer gains, for a total
welfare benefit of $556 million.
Annualized values over the 5 years, in
2006 dollars when using a 3 percent
discount rate, would be consumer gains
of $97 million and producer gains of
$24 million, yielding benefits of over
$121 million.
Our analysis shows producer welfare
changes to be negative in 2007 and
positive in each of the following 4 years,
2008–2011. In 2007, producer welfare
losses for the cull cattle/processing beef
category would be larger than the
combined producer welfare gains for the
other three commodities. For the years
2008–2011, the opposite would occur.
This is largely due to the fact that, given
Canada’s excess cull cattle supply, the
largest annual number of cull cattle
would be imported in 2007, with
imports diminishing thereafter. Table III
shows positive changes in producer
welfare because the discounted
producer welfare gains in 2008–2011
would exceed producer welfare losses
in 2007.
By far, the largest effects of the
proposed rule would be due to
resumption of Canadian cull cattle
imports. As shown in Table IV, the
present value of consumer welfare gains
for the cull cattle/processing beef
category outweighs the combined
consumer welfare losses for the other
three categories ($1.24 billion in
consumer benefits, compared to $798
million in combined consumer losses,
in 2006 dollars and discounted at 3
percent). Producer welfare losses
attributable to resumption of cull cattle/
processing beef imports are smaller in
magnitude than the combined producer
welfare gains for the other three
categories ($657 million in producer
losses, compared to over $768 million in
combined producer gains).
We invite public comment on these
estimates of welfare changes. In
particular, we welcome informed
opinion regarding the price elasticities
we use in the analysis for cull cattle/
processing beef (price elasticity of
supply, 0.84; price elasticity of demand,
¥0.40) that result in the welfare gains
for buyers of processing beef being so
much larger than the welfare losses for
sellers of processing beef.
ycherry on PROD1PC64 with PROPOSALS3
TABLE IV.—PRESENT VALUES OF SEPARATE AND COMBINED WELFARE CHANGES WITH THE PROPOSED RULE FOR CULL
CATTLE/PROCESSING BEEF, FEEDER CATTLE, FED CATTLE, AND FED BEEF, IN 2006 DOLLARS AND DISCOUNTED AT 3
PERCENT, 2007–2011
Cull cattle/
processing
beef
Feeder
cattle
Fed cattle
Fed beef
Combined
(Thousand dollars)
Change in consumer welfare ...................................................................
Change in producer welfare ....................................................................
Net change ..............................................................................................
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1,243,147
¥656,540
586,607
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518,352
494,483
¥23,870
E:\FR\FM\09JAP3.SGM
176,136
171,791
4,345
09JAP3
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101,928
¥1,991
444,740
111,662
556,401
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Displacement of Processing Beef
Imports From Other Countries
The net impact of cull cattle imports
from Canada would depend upon the
extent to which they would displace
(substitute for) processing beef imports
from other countries. About 35 percent
of cull cattle imports from Canada over
the period of analysis are projected to
displace processing imports from other
countries and the remainder are
projected to contribute to an increase in
the U.S. supply of processing beef
(respectively, 5-year averages of 132
million pounds and 245 million
pounds, carcass weight equivalent).4 We
consider here the effects of extreme
displacement possibilities, that is, if
either none or all of the Canadian cull
cattle imports were to displace
processing beef imports from other
countries.
Projected imports of cull cattle from
Canada are shown in Table V, together
with changes in the U.S. supply of
processing beef under the three
displacement scenarios: None of the
Canadian imports displacing imports
from other countries; projected
displacement; or all of the Canadian
imports displacing imports from other
countries. In the third scenario, we
assume that the cull cattle imports from
Canada would have no impact on the
U.S. supply of processing beef.
Table VI compares the present and
annualized values of welfare changes
and average annual price changes for
the cull cattle/processing beef category
under the three displacement scenarios,
in 2006 dollars. Discounting at 3
percent, the present value of net welfare
benefits for the cull cattle/processing
beef category would be about $927
million when no displacement is
assumed to occur, compared to net
benefits of about $587 million when
projected levels of displacement occur,
and zero benefits or costs when we
assume all imported Canadian
processing beef would displace imports
from other countries. Annualized net
values for the three scenarios,
discounted at 3 percent, range from
$203 million, to $128 million, to no
impact. Over the 5-year period, annual
declines in prices would average about
$6 per cwt if no displacement were to
occur, and about $4 per cwt with
projected levels of displacement. There
would be no price effect if all processing
beef imports from Canada were to
displace imports from other countries.
TABLE V.—PROJECTED IMPORTS OF CULL CATTLE FROM CANADA WITH THE PROPOSED RULE AND CHANGES IN THE U.S.
SUPPLY OF PROCESSING BEEF IF (I) NONE OF THE CULL CATTLE IMPORTED FROM CANADA DISPLACE PROCESSING
BEEF IMPORTED FROM OTHER COUNTRIES, (II) PROJECTED DISPLACEMENT OCCURS, OR (III) ALL OF THE CULL CATTLE IMPORTED FROM CANADA DISPLACE PROCESSING BEEF IMPORTS FROM OTHER COUNTRIES, 2007–2011, IN MILLION POUNDS CARCASS WEIGHT EQUIVALENT
2007
Projected cull cattle imports from Canada ..................................................................
Projected processing beef imports from Canada ........................................................
Projected displacement of processing beef imports from other countries by processing beef imports from Canada ............................................................................
Change in U.S. supply if none of the processing beef imports from Canada displace imports from other countries ..........................................................................
Change in U.S. supply of processing beef if projected displacement occurs .............
Change in U.S. supply if all the processing beef imports from Canada displace imports from other countries ........................................................................................
2008
2009
2010
2011
458
0
403
0
333
0
343
0
346
0
170
149
128
106
106
458
288
403
254
333
205
343
237
346
240
0
0
0
0
0
Note: Cull cattle (slaughter cows, bulls, and stags) are converted from thousand head to million pounds carcass weight equivalent by multiplying by the following carcass weights (pounds) for cows and bulls/stags, respectively: 2007, 576 and 888; 2008, 579 and 893; 2009, 583 and
899; 2010, 586 and 904; and 2011, 590 and 909 (Source: Expert opinion, USDA Economic Research Service, Market and Trade Economics Division, Animal Products, Grains, and Oil Seeds Branch).
TABLE VI.—PRESENT AND ANNUALIZED VALUES OF WELFARE CHANGES AND AVERAGE ANNUAL PRICE CHANGES FOR
CULL CATTLE/PROCESSING BEEF IF (I) NONE OF THE CULL CATTLE IMPORTED FROM CANADA DISPLACES PROCESSING BEEF IMPORTED FROM OTHER COUNTRIES, (II) PROJECTED DISPLACEMENT OCCURS, OR (III) ALL OF THE
CULL CATTLE IMPORTED FROM CANADA DISPLACE PROCESSING BEEF IMPORTS FROM OTHER COUNTRIES, IN 2006
DOLLARS, 2007–2011
Amount of imports
from Canada assumed to displace
imports from other
countries 1
Discount rate
(percent)
Changes in welfare
Consumer
Producer
Net
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(Thousand dollars)
Present value:
3 ........................................................................................................
3 ........................................................................................................
3 ........................................................................................................
7 ........................................................................................................
7 ........................................................................................................
7 ........................................................................................................
Annualized value:
3 ........................................................................................................
3 ........................................................................................................
4 These projections are based on the expert
opinion of staff of the USDA Economic Research
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None ......................
Projected ...............
All ..........................
None ......................
Projected ...............
All ..........................
1,928,548
1,243,147
0
1,742,482
1,120,778
0
¥1,001,140
¥656,540
0
¥901,619
¥590,070
0
927,408
586,607
0
840,864
530,708
0
None ......................
Projected ...............
421,107
271,447
¥218,603
¥143,358
202.504
128,089
Service, Market and Trade Economics Division,
Animal Products, Grains, and Oil Seeds Branch.
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09JAP3
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1119
TABLE VI.—PRESENT AND ANNUALIZED VALUES OF WELFARE CHANGES AND AVERAGE ANNUAL PRICE CHANGES FOR
CULL CATTLE/PROCESSING BEEF IF (I) NONE OF THE CULL CATTLE IMPORTED FROM CANADA DISPLACES PROCESSING BEEF IMPORTED FROM OTHER COUNTRIES, (II) PROJECTED DISPLACEMENT OCCURS, OR (III) ALL OF THE
CULL CATTLE IMPORTED FROM CANADA DISPLACE PROCESSING BEEF IMPORTS FROM OTHER COUNTRIES, IN 2006
DOLLARS, 2007–2011—Continued
Discount rate
(percent)
Amount of imports
from Canada assumed to displace
imports from other
countries 1
Changes in welfare
3 ........................................................................................................
7 ........................................................................................................
7 ........................................................................................................
7 ........................................................................................................
Average annual price change and percentage price change:
All ..........................
None ......................
Projected ...............
All ..........................
0
424,975
273,347
0
None ......................
Projected ...............
All ..........................
(Dollars
per cwt)
¥6.00
¥4.00
¥0
Consumer
Producer
0
¥219,896
¥143,912
0
Net
0
205,079
129,435
0
(Percentage)
¥6.57
¥4.26
0
Note: Prices are in carcass weight equivalent.
1 Projected displacement quantities for the 5 years, 2007–2011, in million pounds carcass weight equivalent, are 170, 149, 128, 106, and 106.
Displaced quantities for the 5 years, if all cull cattle imported from Canada were to displace processing beef imports from other countries, would
be 458, 403, 333, 343, and 346 (Source: Expert opinion, USDA Economic Research Service, Market and Trade Economics Division, Animal
Products, Grains, and Oil Seeds Branch).
It is evident that the extent of import
displacement would influence impacts
of the proposed rule for the cull cattle/
processing beef category. Table VII
shows the significance of the
displacement assumption for the
combined welfare effects. The larger the
quantity of processing beef imports from
other countries that would be displaced,
the smaller the net benefits. The
difference between consumer gains and
producer losses would exceed $897
million (discounted at 3 percent) if no
displacement of processing beef imports
from other countries were to occur. The
present value of net benefits would be
about $556 million with projected
displacement, and there would be a net
welfare loss of $30 million if all of the
imported Canadian cull cattle were to
displace imports from other countries.
In the third scenario, the modeled
effects of the rule would be due to
changes in the supply of Canadian
feeder cattle, fed cattle, and fed beef as
a result of the cull cattle imports
affecting the slaughter mix in Canada. In
this case, consumer welfare losses for
these commodities would exceed
producer welfare gains, resulting in a
net decline in welfare.
TABLE VII.—PRESENT AND ANNUALIZED VALUES OF COMBINED WELFARE CHANGES FOR THE MODELED COMMODITIES IF
(I) NONE OF THE PROCESSING BEEF IMPORTS FROM CANADA DISPLACE IMPORTS FROM OTHER COUNTRIES, (II) PROJECTED DISPLACEMENT OCCURS, OR (III) ALL OF THE PROCESSING BEEF IMPORTS FROM CANADA DISPLACE IMPORTS
FROM OTHER COUNTRIES, IN 2006 DOLLARS, 2007–2011
Amount of imports
from Canada assumed to displace
discount imports
from other countries
Discount rate
(percent)
Changes in welfare
Consumer
Producer
Net
ycherry on PROD1PC64 with PROPOSALS3
(Thousand dollars)
Present value:
3 .................................................................................................................
3 .................................................................................................................
3 .................................................................................................................
7 .................................................................................................................
7 .................................................................................................................
7 .................................................................................................................
Annualized value:
3 .................................................................................................................
3 .................................................................................................................
3 .................................................................................................................
7 .................................................................................................................
7 .................................................................................................................
7 .................................................................................................................
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None ........................
Projected ..................
All .............................
None ........................
Projected ..................
All .............................
1,130,141
444,740
¥798,407
1,029,444
407,740
¥713,038
¥232.938
111,662
768,202
¥215,413
96,136
686,206
897,202
556,401
¥30,206
814,032
503,876
¥26,832
None ........................
Projected ..................
All .............................
None ........................
Projected ..................
All .............................
246,770
97,110
¥174,337
251,080
99,452
¥173,895
¥50,861
¥24,384
167,742
¥52,527
23,457
167,369
195,909
121,494
¥6,595
198,552
122,908
¥6,527
Sfmt 4702
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Federal Register / Vol. 72, No. 5 / Tuesday, January 9, 2007 / Proposed Rules
Multi-sector impacts. For a broader
examination of impacts, we map
interactions among the grain, animal,
and animal products industries using a
second model.5 This model takes into
account substitution among livestock
products in response to relative price
changes. It incorporates foreign trade
and yields expected price and revenue
effects, but does not allow for
computation of welfare changes.
Our results show for the combined
livestock, feed, and grain sectors, an
estimated decline in gross revenues
with the proposed rule of less than one
percent in 2007. For the beef and cattle
sectors, the gross revenue declines are
also less than one percent. The analysis
indicates declines of less than one
percent, as well, in cattle and beef
prices in 2007.
As expected, these simulated impacts
are small because they describe effects
for aggregated commodity groupings (all
cattle production and all beef
production are grouped within single
categories) and because of the linkages
specified between the livestock
production and processing sectors that
allow for greater flexibility in adjusting
to supply shocks. The larger effects
reported above for cull cattle/processing
beef are subsumed within a combined
beef sector in this multi-sector model.
These results support our expectation
that broader impacts of the proposed
rule would be limited.
ycherry on PROD1PC64 with PROPOSALS3
Effects for Commodities Not Modeled
Commodity categories not modeled
that would be affected by the proposed
rule are breeding cattle, vealers and
slaughter calves, bison, bovine casings
and small intestine products, and
bovine blood and blood products.
Breeding cattle. We do not expect the
resumption of dairy and beef breeding
cattle imports from Canada to
significantly affect the U.S. market for
these animals. The number that would
be imported under the proposed rule is
small in comparison to projected cattle
imports from Canada overall (4 percent)
and even smaller in comparison to the
number of replacement breeding heifers
supplied on average by U.S. producers
(0.5 percent). Breeding cattle imported
from Canada would augment the U.S.
5 Three examples of studies based on this type of
model are: Paarlberg, P.L. ‘‘Agricultural Export
Subsidies and Intermediate Goods Trade,’’
American Journal of Agricultural Economics. 77, 1
(1995): 119–128. Paarlberg, P.L., J.G. Lee, and A.H.
Seitzinger. ‘‘Potential Revenue Impact of an
Outbreak of Foot-and-Mouth Disease in the United
States,’’ Journal of the American Veterinary Medical
Association. 220, 7 (April 1, 2002): 988–992.
Sanyal, K.K. and R.W. Jones. ‘‘The Theory of Trade
in Middle Products,’’ American Economic Review.
72 (1982): 16–31.
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15:39 Jan 08, 2007
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breeding herd very slightly. Demand for
these animals, like the demand for
breeding cattle generally, would derive
from management decisions based on
herd composition and expected future
net returns, with price variations
influencing secondarily the quantity of
breeding cattle purchased.
Vealers and slaughter calves. The
proposed rule is expected to have a
small effect on the number of vealers
and slaughter calves imported from
Canada. A decline in imports is
projected in each year of the period of
analysis, compared to quantities that
would be imported without the rule, as
Canadian slaughter patterns adjust to
reestablished export opportunities for
cull cattle. Over the 5-year period, an
average of 11,800 fewer vealers and
slaughter calves are projected to be
imported annually with the proposed
rule than would be imported without
the rule.
For the 10-year period, 1994–2003,
slaughter of vealers and calves in the
United States averaged 1.3 million head
per year. We expect annual U.S. vealer
and calf slaughter during the period of
analysis to be similar to this earlier
average. On this basis, the average
annual decrease in vealer and slaughter
calf imports from Canada under the
proposed rule would be equal to less
than 1 percent of U.S. vealer and calf
slaughter. Any effect on vealer and
slaughter calf prices because of the
smaller number expected to be imported
under the proposed rule would not be
significant.
Bison. Like the cattle industry, the
commercial bison industry is comprised
primarily of cow-calf operations that
sell weaned calves to other operations
for finishing and processing. Projected
bison imports from Canada total 4,000
head in 2007, 3,150 head in 2008, and
2,500 head each year thereafter. Each
year, 250 head of breeding bison are
projected to be imported. The remainder
would be mainly bison for immediate
slaughter (2,500 head in 2007, 2,400
head in 2008, and 2,000 head in each of
the following years), with a lesser
number of feeders (1,250 head in 2007,
500 head in 2008, and 250 head in each
year thereafter).
The 2,500 bison projected to be
imported for immediate slaughter in
2007 would represent about 7 percent of
the U.S. slaughter total in 2005. We
assume that most if not all of these
slaughter bison (as well as the 1,250
head projected to be imported in 2007
for feeding) would be slaughtered at less
than 30 months of age, that is, they
would be of the same age as Canadian
bison that are currently allowed to be
imported. Thus, the only change in
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bison imports in 2007, as well as in
subsequent years, under the proposed
rule would be imports of 250 head of
breeding bison.
Yearly imports from Canada of 250
head of breeding bison would augment
the U.S. bison breeding herd only
slightly. They would annually represent
only about two-tenths of one percent of
the U.S. bison breeding herd, assuming
the composition of the national bison
herd is similar to that of the national
cattle herd, with breeding stock (cows,
replacement heifers, and bulls)
constituting about 56 percent of the
animals.
As the market for bison meat becomes
better established, the demand for
breeding stock will continue to
strengthen. The projected imports of
breeding bison under the proposed rule
would help meet this growing demand.
However, they would constitute a very
small addition to the U.S. breeding
herd. Any effects on bison prices and
the welfare of U.S. bison producers are
expected to be insignificant.
Bovine casings and small intestine
products. The proposed rule may affect
the supply of bovine casings and small
intestine products in the United States
in three ways: By allowing importation
of bovine casings from Canada; by
allowing importation of Canadian
bovine small intestines, minus the distal
ileum, that are used to make certain
casings and variety meats; and by
reducing restrictions on live bovine
imports from Canada and thereby
changing the U.S. supply of bovine
products in general, including intestines
and other material used to produce
casings and variety meats.
We calculate that with the rule the
annual supply of bovine casings and
variety meats produced from small
intestines would increase on average
over the period of analysis by about 1.6
percent. The largest increase would
occur in 2007, with production of 2.5
million pounds of additional small
intestine for use as casings and variety
meats. These supply projections
presume a ready market for these
products.
The proposed rule would allow
importation from Canada of bovine
small intestine minus the distal ileum
that could then be processed into
casings and variety meats in the United
States. APHIS does not have
information on the volume of bovine
small intestine that may be imported
from Canada because of the proposed
rule. We welcome information that
would enable us to evaluate effects on
the U.S. supply of bovine small
intestine of allowing their importation
from Canada.
E:\FR\FM\09JAP3.SGM
09JAP3
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Federal Register / Vol. 72, No. 5 / Tuesday, January 9, 2007 / Proposed Rules
Current regulations prohibit the
importation of bovine and other
ruminant casings from BSE minimalrisk regions. The proposed rule would
remove this prohibition, and therefore
allow resumption of bovine casings
imports from Canada. The Agency does
not have information on levels of
production or consumption of bovine
casings in the United States, and trade
data do not distinguish between bovine
and ovine casings; import and export
quantities and prices for bovine casings
alone are unavailable from the U.S.
Department of Commerce. We welcome
information that the public may provide
that would enable us to better
understand the U.S. bovine casings
industry and levels of historic trade in
bovine casings between the United
States, Canada, and the world.
Bovine blood and blood products. The
proposed rule would allow resumption
of imports of bovine blood and blood
products from BSE minimal-risk
regions, that is, of Canadian origin. The
primary commodities affected would be
products used in the manufacture of
vaccines and drugs, of which fetal
bovine serum (FBS) is the most
important. It is the most widely used
serum in the culturing of cells, tissues
and organs.
Since the detection of BSE in Canada
in 2003, imports of FBS from Canada
have been restricted to either research
samples of Canadian-origin FBS (limited
to 1 liter per shipment), or FBS that is
derived from animals that originate in
the United States, Australia, Mexico, or
Central America and is processed at a
designated Canadian facility under
USDA permit.
The proposed rule may affect the
supply of FBS in the United States in
two ways: By allowing Canadian-origin
FBS imports for commercial purposes,
and by reducing restrictions on bovine
imports from Canada and thereby
changing the U.S. supply of pregnant
cows presented for slaughter. We
approximate that the proposed rule
would allow for the importation of up
to 24,000 liters of FBS derived from
Canadian cows. Had this amount been
imported in 2005, it would have
represented about 13 percent of U.S.
imports of FBS from all sources. In
addition, the increase in pregnant cow
slaughter projected with the proposed
rule may provide an additional 23,000
to 32,000 liters. Other than for these
upper-bound approximations, we are
unable to project the extent to which the
U.S. supply of FBS may be affected by
the proposed rule. The additional
supplies would benefit U.S.
establishments that use FBS in their
manufacturing processes.
Alternative to the Proposed Rule
An alternative to the proposed rule
considered by APHIS would be to allow
resumption of live bovine imports from
BSE minimal-risk regions without
restriction by date of birth. In other
words, Canadian bovines could be
imported for any destination or purpose
without regard to their age.
Cattle imports from Canada. In Table
VIII, projected imports under the
alternative are compared to projected
imports if no regulatory action were
taken (baseline import quantities) and to
projected imports under the proposed
rule. The alternative would allow entry
of bovines born before the date specified
in the proposed rule as when a
ruminant-to-ruminant feed ban in
Canada was effectively enforced: March
1, 1999. For convenience, we refer to
these animals as older cull cattle.
Under the proposed rule, cattle that
are 8 years or older prior to March 1,
2007 would be prohibited. Each year
thereafter, the prohibited older cull
cattle would comprise a smaller age
group: 9 years or older prior to March
1, 2008, 10 years or older prior to March
1, 2009, and so on. Within a few years,
the proposed rule’s requirement that
bovines be born on or after March 1,
1999, would not limit bovine imports
from Canada; bovine imports allowed
under the proposed rule and the
alternative would be the same.
TABLE VIII.—PROJECTED IMPORTS OF CANADIAN FEEDER CATTLE, FED CATTLE, CULL CATTLE/PROCESSING BEEF, AND
FED BEEF: BASELINE, PROPOSED RULE, AND ALTERNATIVE OF NO RESTRICTION BY DATE OF BIRTH ON LIVE BOVINE
IMPORTS, 2007–2011
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
302
189
189
371
175
175
425
167
167
440
178
178
441
179
179
742
728
728
731
673
673
729
644
644
755
685
685
756
688
688
Feeder cattle from Canada
(Thousand head)
Baseline ..............................................................................................................................................
Proposed Rule ....................................................................................................................................
Alternative ...........................................................................................................................................
Fed cattle from Canada
(Thousand head)
Baseline ..............................................................................................................................................
Proposed Rule ....................................................................................................................................
Alternative ...........................................................................................................................................
ycherry on PROD1PC64 with PROPOSALS3
Cull cattle from Canada, net of imports assumed to displace processing beef imports from other countries
(Million pounds carcass weight equivalent)
Baseline ..............................................................................................................................................
Proposed Rule ....................................................................................................................................
Alternative ...........................................................................................................................................
0
288
360
0
254
318
0
205
205
0
237
237
0
240
240
446
371
425
390
420
420
419
419
419
419
Fed beef from Canada
(Million pounds carcass weight equivalent)
Baseline ..............................................................................................................................................
Proposed Rule ....................................................................................................................................
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E:\FR\FM\09JAP3.SGM
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Federal Register / Vol. 72, No. 5 / Tuesday, January 9, 2007 / Proposed Rules
TABLE VIII.—PROJECTED IMPORTS OF CANADIAN FEEDER CATTLE, FED CATTLE, CULL CATTLE/PROCESSING BEEF, AND
FED BEEF: BASELINE, PROPOSED RULE, AND ALTERNATIVE OF NO RESTRICTION BY DATE OF BIRTH ON LIVE BOVINE
IMPORTS, 2007–2011—Continued
2007
Alternative ...........................................................................................................................................
2008
2009
2010
2011
371
390
420
419
419
Source: Expert opinion, USDA Economic Research Service, Market and Trade Economics Division, Animal Products, Grains, and Oil Seeds
Branch.
Note: For the cull cattle/processing beef category, cull cattle imports are converted from thousand head to million pounds carcass weight
equivalent for 2007–2011 by multiplying by the following carcass weights (pounds) for cows and bulls/stags, respectively: 2007, 576 and 888;
2008, 579 and 893; 2009, 583 and 899; 2010, 586 and 904; and 2011, 590 and 909.
Projected imports of Canadian feeder
cattle, fed cattle, and fed beef are the
same under the proposed rule and
under the alternative. In both cases,
feeder and fed cattle imports would be
fewer than would enter without the
rule, and fed beef imports would be less
in the first 2 years of the period of
analysis. The only difference between
imports under the proposed rule and
under the alternative is with respect to
cull cattle imports projected for 2007
and 2008. Under the alternative, imports
of cull cattle are projected in these 2
years to be one-fourth greater, net of
displaced processing beef imports, than
they would be under the proposed rule.
The older cull cattle that would be
imported under the alternative would
total 168,000 cows and 20,000 bulls and
stags in 2007, and 147,000 cows and
18,000 bulls and stags in 2008. These
older cull cattle would yield 72 million
pounds and 64 million pounds of
processing beef, carcass weight
equivalent, for the 2 years.
Table IX shows the present and
annualized values of welfare changes
under the alternative for the cull cattle/
processing beef category. The present
value of the welfare changes (2006
dollars, 3 percent discount rate) would
be $1.4 billion in consumer gains, $731
million in producer losses, for a net
benefit of about $667 million.
Annualized values over the 5 years
would be consumer gains of $305
million, producer losses of $160
million, and net benefits of $146
million.
TABLE IX.—ALTERNATIVE OF NO RESTRICTION BY DATE OF BIRTH ON LIVE BOVINE IMPORTS: PRESENT AND ANNUALIZED
VALUES OF WELFARE CHANGES FOR CULL CATTLE/PROCESSING BEEF, 2007–2011
Discount
rate
(percent)
Changes in welfare
Consumer
Producer
Net
(Thousand dollars)
Present Value:
2006 Dollars .............................................................................................................
2001 Dollars .............................................................................................................
Annualized Value:
2006 Dollars .............................................................................................................
2001 Dollars .............................................................................................................
3
7
3
7
1,397,680
1,267,061
1,215,348
1,101,796
¥730,800
¥660,333
¥635,446
¥574,189
666,880
606,728
579,902
527,606
3
7
3
7
305,190
309,025
265,377
268,718
¥159,573
¥161,049
¥138,752
¥140,039
145,617
147,976
126,624
128,678
Note: Consumers are U.S. buyers of processing beef at the wholesale level; producers are sellers of U.S.-produced processing beef at the
wholesale level. Cull cattle imports from Canada in thousand head are converted to processing beef in million pounds carcass weight equivalent
by multiplying by the following carcass weights (pounds) for cows and bulls/stags, respectively: 2007, 576 and 888; 2008, 579 and 893; 2009,
583 and 899; 2010, 586 and 904; and 2011, 590 and 909.
ycherry on PROD1PC64 with PROPOSALS3
To exemplify the differences in
welfare effects between the alternative
and the proposed rule for the cull cattle/
processing beef category, we compare in
Table X their present and annualized
values in 2006 dollars when discounted
at 3 percent. Compared to effects under
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the proposed rule, consumer welfare
gains under the alternative would be
12.4 percent larger, producer welfare
losses would be 11.3 percent larger, and
net benefits would be 13.7 percent
larger. The annual decrease in
processing beef prices under the
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alternative over the 5-year period, all
things equal, is computed to average
$4.80 per cwt, compared to an average
annual decrease of $4.00 under the
proposed rule.
E:\FR\FM\09JAP3.SGM
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Federal Register / Vol. 72, No. 5 / Tuesday, January 9, 2007 / Proposed Rules
1123
TABLE X.—PRESENT AND ANNUALIZED VALUES OF WELFARE CHANGES FOR CULL CATTLE/PROCESSING BEEF, WITH THE
ALTERNATIVE AND WITH THE PROPOSED RULE, 3 PERCENT DISCOUNT RATE, 2006 DOLLARS, 2007–2011
Changes in welfare
Consumer
Producer
Net
(Thousand dollars)
ycherry on PROD1PC64 with PROPOSALS3
Present Value:
Alternative .........................................................................................................................................
Proposed Rule ..................................................................................................................................
Difference .........................................................................................................................................
Annualized Value:
Alternative .........................................................................................................................................
Proposed Rule ..................................................................................................................................
Difference .........................................................................................................................................
Difference as a percentage of welfare changes with the proposed rule ................................................
When we compare present and
annualized values of combined welfare
changes under the alternative and under
the proposed rule, we find that the net
welfare benefits would be 15 to 16
percent larger under the alternative than
would be realized under the proposed
rule. For example, the annualized net
benefit (2006 dollars, 3 percent rate of
discount) would be $140 million under
the alternative, compared to $121
million under the proposed rule.
Impacts under the alternative and under
the proposed rule would also differ for
some of the commodities not modeled.
For example, we would expect the
supply of bovine casings to be larger
with the alternative, due to larger
projected slaughter numbers.
BSE risk. As described in the risk
assessment for this proposed rule,
transmission of BSE requires that
bovines ingest feed that contains the
infectious agent. Feed contamination
results from the incorporation of
ingredients that contain certain
ruminant protein derived from infected
animals. Standard rendering processes
do not completely inactivate the BSE
agent. Therefore, rendered protein such
as meat-and-bone meal derived from
infected animals may remain
contaminated. Prohibitions on the use of
ruminant protein in ruminant feed are
imposed by FDA to mitigate the risk of
BSE transmission.
The OIE establishes standards for the
international trade in animals and
animal products. It recommends that
cattle be imported from a region that has
reported an indigenous case of BSE only
if the cattle selected for export were
born after the date from which a ban on
the feeding of ruminants with meat-andbone meal and greaves (the residue left
after animal fat or tallow has been
rendered) derived from ruminants had
been effectively enforced.
On August 4, 1997, Canada issued
regulations prohibiting the use of
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mammalian protein in ruminant feeds.
Implementation of the feed ban was a
gradual process, with producers, feed
mills, retailers, and feed manufacturers
given grace periods before they were
required to be in full compliance with
the regulations. It is estimated that this
implementation period may have lasted
several months, making February 1998 a
more realistic date on which the ban can
be considered to have been practically
implemented.
The likelihood that Canadian cattle
born after February 1998 would be
exposed to the BSE agent continues to
decrease over time. APHIS considers
that a period of 1 year following the
practical implementation of the feed ban
allows sufficient time for the measures
taken by Canada to have their desired
effect. Therefore, APHIS concludes that
cattle born on or after March 1, 1999, are
unlikely to have been exposed to the
BSE agent via feed and can be imported
into the United States for any purpose
with a low risk that they will be infected
with the BSE agent.
We do not have a quantitative
estimate of the additional risk posed by
importation of Canadian cattle born
before March 1, 1999. The importance of
a feed ban as a risk mitigation measure
is demonstrated in science and
experience, and is incorporated into the
OIE feed ban recommendation. We
conclude that there may be some degree
of increased risk of BSE introduction
under the alternative, compared to the
minimal risk posed by the proposed
rule, because of the greater likelihood of
the older cull cattle having been
exposed to infectivity. While our
analysis indicates larger net welfare
benefits may be realized under the
alternative of no restriction by date of
birth on live bovine imports, the
proposed rule is preferable because it
would pose a lower risk of BSE
introduction into the United States and
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1,397,680
1,243,147
154,533
¥730,800
¥656,540
¥74,260
666,880
586,607
80,273
305,190
271,447
33,743
12.4%
¥159,573
¥143,358
¥16,215
11.3%
145,617
128,089
17,528
13.7%
would be consistent with demonstrated
science, experience, and OIE guidance.
Expected Impacts Assuming
Resumption of Processing Beef Imports
From Canada
Current regulations require that
imported Canadian cattle be slaughtered
at less than 30 months of age and that
imported Canadian beef come from
cattle slaughtered at less than 30 months
of age. Our analysis assumes no imports
of processing beef from Canada. As a
second scenario, we consider effects if
imports of Canadian beef from cattle
slaughtered at 30 months or older were
to resume at the same time that the
proposed rule is finalized.
Importation of ruminant products and
byproducts was included in the BSE
minimal-risk regions final rule, and this
proposed rule would not change
regulations regarding the importation of
beef from Canada. However, in March
2005, APHIS gave notice in the Federal
Register that the applicability of certain
provisions of the rule pertaining to
bovine meat, meat byproducts, whole
and half carcasses, and certain other
bovine products was being delayed until
further notice. This partial delay of
applicability of the BSE minimal-risk
regions rule prohibits the importation of
such products if derived from bovines
30 months of age or older at slaughter.
As discussed, the United States is a
large importer of processing beef, with
Australia, New Zealand, and Uruguay
currently our primary suppliers. Over
the period of analysis, total processing
beef imports are projected to provide
about 45 percent of U.S. consumption of
processing beef (decreasing from 49
percent in 2007 to 42 percent in 2011).
We assume annual imports of Canadian
processing beef, 2007–2011, would
average 240 million pounds carcass
weight equivalent, of which about twothirds would displace processing beef
imports from other countries and about
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one-third would represent a net increase
in U.S. supply. It is further assumed
under this scenario that the Canadian
cull cattle imported would not displace
processing beef imports from other
countries.6 The net addition of
processing beef from Canada would be
equivalent to 2.8 percent of projected
baseline imports (without the rule) over
the period of analysis, or 1.3 percent of
U.S. supply. When the processing beef
produced from projected cull cattle
imports from Canada is included, the
increase in the U.S. supply of
processing beef under this scenario
would be equivalent to 4.3 percent of
projected imports without the proposed
rule.
Projected imports of cull cattle and
processing beef from Canada under this
scenario are compared in Table XI to
projected imports of cull cattle alone
used to evaluate the proposed rule.
Results of the analysis show the price of
processing beef decreasing in 2007 by
6.3 percent under this scenario, from
$99 to about $93 per cwt carcass weight
equivalent in 2006 dollars. Over the
period of analysis, the annual decrease
in processing beef prices because of the
proposed rule, all things equal, is
expected to average about 5 percent,
ranging from about $6.20 per cwt in
2007 to about $3.80 per cwt in 2009.
TABLE XI.—SCENARIO COMPARISON OF QUANTITIES OF (1) CULL CATTLE ALONE AND (II) CULL CATTLE AND PROCESSING
BEEF PROJECTED TO BE IMPORTED FROM CANADA, NET OF DISPLACED PROCESSING BEEF IMPORTS FROM OTHER
COUNTRIES, 2007–2011, IN MILLION POUNDS OF PROCESSING BEEF, CARCASS WEIGHT EQUIVALENT
Year
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Cull cattle only
.............................................................................................................................................................
.............................................................................................................................................................
.............................................................................................................................................................
.............................................................................................................................................................
.............................................................................................................................................................
Cull cattle and
processing beef
288
254
205
237
240
339
299
242
279
282
Source: Expert opinion, USDA Economic Research Service, Market and Trade Economics Division, Animal Products, Grains, and Oil Seeds
Branch.
Notes: Cull cattle are converted to processing beef by multiplying by the following carcass weights (pounds) for cows and bulls/stags, respectively: 2007, 576 and 888; 2008, 579 and 893; 2009, 583 and 899; 2010, 586 and 904; and 2011, 590 and 909. All of the quantities that follow
are expressed in million pounds of processing beef, carcass weight equivalent. For the cull cattle imports only scenario, the quantities are based
on projected imports of slaughter cows, bulls, and stags, and are equivalent to: 2007, 458; 2008, 403; 2009, 333; 2010, 343; and 2011, 346.
These quantities are reduced by the following projected displaced processing beef imports from other countries: 2007, 170; 2008, 149; 2009,
128; 2010, 106; and 2011, 106. For the scenario that assumes importation from Canada of both cull cattle and processing beef, quantities of cull
cattle imported are: 2007, 214; 2008, 199; 2009, 192; 2010, 204; and 2011, 207. Projected processing beef imports are: 2007, 325; 2008, 275;
2009, 200; 2010, 200; and 2011, 200. Combined cull cattle and processing beef imports are 2007, 539; 2008, 474; 2009, 392; 2010, 404; and
2011, 407. These quantities are reduced by the following projected displaced processing beef imports from other countries: 2007, 200; 2008,
175; 2009, 150; 2010, 125; and 2011, 125.
As shown in Table XII, the present
value of the welfare changes in 2006
dollars when using a 3 percent discount
rate would be $1.47 billion in consumer
gains, $770 million in producer losses,
for a net benefit of about $695 million.
Annualized values over the 5 years, in
2006 dollars when using a 3 percent
discount rate, would be consumer gains
of $320 million, producer losses of $168
million, and net benefits of $152
million.
TABLE XII.—CULL CATTLE/PROCESSING BEEF: PRESENT AND ANNUALIZED VALUES OF WELFARE CHANGES ASSUMING
CULL CATTLE IMPORTS AND PROCESSING BEEF IMPORTS FROM CANADA WOULD RESUME AT THE SAME TIME, 2007–2011
Discount
rate
(percent)
Changes in welfare
Consumer
Producer
Net
(Thousand dollars)
Present Value:
2006 Dollars .............................................................................................................
2001 Dollars .............................................................................................................
Annualized Value:
2006 Dollars .............................................................................................................
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2001 Dollars .............................................................................................................
3
7
3
7
1,465,829
1,321,580
1,274,467
1,149,081
¥770,389
¥692,393
¥669,797
¥602,002
695,440
629,187
604,670
547,078
3
7
3
7
320,071
322,321
278,286
280,250
¥168,218
¥168,868
¥146,253
¥146,823
151,853
153,453
132,033
133,427
Compared to impacts for the cull
cattle/processing beef category when
only cull cattle would enter, this
scenario would result in consumer
welfare gains larger by 17.9 percent,
producer welfare losses larger by 17.3
percent, and net benefits larger by 18.6
percent.
6 The import quantities and extent of
displacement are projections made by staff of the
USDA Economic Research Service (ERS), Market
and Trade Economics Division, Animal Products,
Grains, and Oil Seeds Branch, based on their expert
opinion and reference to the ‘‘USDA Agricultural
Baseline Projections to 2015,’’ United States
Department of Agriculture, Interagency Agricultural
Projections Committee, Baseline Report OCE–2006–
1, February 2006.
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Combined effects under this scenario
for cull cattle/processing beef, feeder
cattle, fed cattle, and fed beef are shown
in Table XIII.
TABLE XIII.—PRESENT AND ANNUALIZED VALUES OF COMBINED WELFARE CHANGES FOR THE MODELED COMMODITIES,
ASSUMING CULL CATTLE IMPORTS AND PROCESSING BEEF IMPORTS FROM CANADA WOULD RESUME AT THE SAME
TIME, 2007–2011
Discount
rate
(percent)
Changes in welfare
Consumer
Producer
Net
(Thousand dollars)
Present Value:
2006 Dollars .............................................................................................................
2001 Dollars .............................................................................................................
Annualized Value:
2006 Dollars .............................................................................................................
2001 Dollars .............................................................................................................
Removal of the delay of applicability,
thereby allowing importation of
Canadian beef from cattle slaughtered at
30 months or older, is a decision that
will be taken at the discretion of the
Secretary of the U.S. Department of
Agriculture.
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Expected Impacts for Small Entities
We have prepared an initial
regulatory flexibility analysis that
indicates that industries expected to be
affected by the proposed rule are
composed largely of small entities.
Industries that may be affected, as
categorized by the North American
Industry Classification System, are Beef
Cattle Ranching and Farming (NAICS
112111), Dairy Cattle and Milk
Production (NAICS 112120), All Other
Animal Production (NAICS 112990),
Cattle Feedlots (NAICS 112112), Animal
(except Poultry) Slaughtering (NAICS
311611), Meat Processed from Carcasses
(NAICS 311612), Meat and Meat
Product Merchant Wholesalers (NAICS
424470), Supermarkets and Other
Grocery (except Convenience) Stores
(NAICS 445110), Meat Markets (NAICS
445210), In-Vitro Diagnostic Substance
Manufacturing (NAICS 325413), and
Biological Product (except Diagnostic)
Manufacturing (NAICS 325414).
Average effects for small entities
would be small. As examples, we
approximate that gross receipts for
small-entity beef and dairy operations
would increase, respectively, by $160
(0.6 percent of annual revenue) and
$133 (less than 0.1 percent of annual
revenue), due to the rule’s projected
impact on feeder cattle prices. We
approximate that small-entity feedlots
may incur a revenue loss of about
$5,040 (less than 0.3 percent of annual
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15:39 Jan 08, 2007
Jkt 211001
revenue), due to the rule’s expected
effects on feeder cattle and fed cattle
prices. Small-entity meat packing and
processing establishments may benefit
marginally with the rule, with estimated
price increases for fed beef in 2007 and
2008 representing an increase in annual
revenue of less than 0.2 percent. Effects
of the proposed rule for packers and
processors that utilize processing beef
would be larger, due to the resumption
of cull cattle imports from Canada.
Annual prices of processing beef are
expected to fall by an average of $4 per
cwt over the period of analysis. The
price declines would benefit
establishments that use processing beef
to produce ground beef for the
wholesale market. Conversely,
establishments that sell processing beef
would be negatively affected by the
expected price declines.
Currently, bovines imported from
Canada are restricted to animals that are
slaughtered at less than 30 months of
age. Bovines not imported for
immediate slaughter must be moved
from the port of entry to a feedlot in a
sealed means of conveyance and from
the feedlot to a recognized slaughtering
establishment again in a sealed means of
conveyance. The animals may not be
moved to more than one feedlot. Under
the proposed rule, these movement
restrictions would no longer be
imposed. Canadian bovines imported
other than for immediate slaughter
could be moved any number of times to
any destinations in unsealed means of
conveyance.
Under the proposed rule, feeder
bovines imported from BSE minimalrisk regions would not need to be
accompanied by APHIS Form VS 17–
130, which currently is used to identify
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3
7
3
7
669,191
610,108
581,395
529,956
2,387
¥2,145
2,519
¥1,342
671,578
607,963
583,917
528,614
3
7
3
7
146,122
148,808
126,951
129,252
523
¥513
551
¥327
146,643
148,294
127,501
128,923
the feedlot of destination. (The
individual responsible for the
movement of an imported animal and
the individual identification of the
animal would still be required
information on the accompanying
health certificate.) Also under the
proposed rule, bovines of Canadian
origin moved from a U.S. feedlot to a
slaughtering establishment would not
need to be accompanied by APHIS Form
VS 1–27.
Removal of these movement and
paperwork requirements would benefit
buyers and sellers of Canadian-origin
bovines. Many of the beneficiaries are
likely to be small entities, given their
predominance among cattle and dairy
operations and feedlot establishments.
Affected businesses would be able to
take advantage of a broader range of
transactional opportunities than under
current regulations. For example, the
sale of a young steer first for
backgrounding, then for confined
feeding at one or more facilities, and
finally for slaughter may enable the
original and subsequent owners of the
animal to better maximize returns
compared to current marketing
possibilities. While we are not able to
quantify impacts of removing current
movement restrictions on Canadian
cattle imports, we expect their removal
would benefit the cattle industry acrossthe-board.
The Agency has found no significant
alternatives to the proposed rule that
would continue to protect against the
introduction and dissemination of BSE
into the United States while removing
unnecessary prohibitions on the
importation of certain commodities
from Canada. Without the proposed
rule, restrictions on U.S. importation of
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Federal Register / Vol. 72, No. 5 / Tuesday, January 9, 2007 / Proposed Rules
certain Canadian bovine commodities
that are without scientific merit would
continue. With the proposed rule,
importation of these Canadian
commodities would be allowed to
resume under certain conditions and the
risk of introduction of BSE into the
United States would remain minimal.
Executive Order 12988
This proposed rule has been reviewed
under Executive Order 12988, Civil
Justice Reform. If this proposed rule is
adopted: (1) All State and local laws and
regulations that are inconsistent with
this rule will be preempted; (2) no
retroactive effect will be given to this
rule; and (3) administrative proceedings
will not be required before parties may
file suit in court challenging this rule.
National Environmental Policy Act
To provide the public with
documentation of APHIS’ review and
analysis of any potential environmental
impacts associated with the importation
of bovine and bovine products from
Canada under this proposed rule, we
have prepared an environmental
assessment. The environmental
assessment was prepared in accordance
with: (1) The National Environmental
Policy Act of 1969 (NEPA), as amended
(42 U.S.C. 4321 et seq.), (2) regulations
of the Council on Environmental
Quality for implementing the
procedural provisions of NEPA (40 CFR
parts 1500–1508), (3) USDA regulations
implementing NEPA (7 CFR part 1b),
and (4) APHIS’ NEPA Implementing
Procedures (7 CFR part 372).
The environmental assessment may
be viewed on the Regulations.gov Web
site or in our reading room. Instructions
for accessing Regulations.gov and
information on the location and hours of
the reading room are provided under the
heading ADDRESSES at the beginning of
this proposed rule. In addition, copies
may be obtained by calling or writing to
the individuals listed under FOR
FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT.
Paperwork Reduction Act
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This proposed rule contains no new
information collection or recordkeeping
requirements under the Paperwork
Reduction Act of 1995 (44 U.S.C. 3501
et seq.).
References
1. Wilesmith, J.W., G.A.H. Wells, J.B.M.
Ryan, D. Gavier-Widen, and M.M. Simmons.
(1997). A cohort study to examine
maternally-associated risk factors for BSE.
Vet Rec 141: 239–43.
2. Prince, M.J., J.A. Bailey, P.R.
Barrowman, K.J. Bishop, G.R. Campbell, and
J.M. Wood. (2003). Bovine Spongiform
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Encephalopathy. Rev. sce. tech. OIE; 22 (1):
37–60.
3. Wilesmith, J.W., G.A.H. Wells, M.P.
Cranwell, and J.B.M. Ryan. (1988). Bovine
spongiform encephalopathy epidemiological
studies. Vet. Rec. 123: 638–644.
4. De Koeijer, A., H. Heesterbeek, B.
Schreuder, R. Oberthur, J. Wilesmith, H. van
Roermund, and M. de Jong. (2004).
Quantifying BSE control by calculating the
basic reproduction ratio R0 for the infection
among cattle. J. Math. Biol. 2004. Jan:48(1):
1–22. Epub June 12, 2003.
5. European Commission (EC). (2005).
Report on the monitoring and Testing of
Ruminants for the Presence of Transmissible
Spongiform Encephalopathy (TSE) in the EU
in 2004. June 13. (https://europa.eu.int/
comm/food/food/biosafety/bse/
annual_report_tse2004_en.pdf).
6. European Commission (EC). (2005a). The
TSE Roadmap. July 15. COM(2005) 322
FINAL. (https://europa.eu.int/comm/food/
food/biosafety/bse/roadmap_en.pdf).
7. Department of Environment Food and
Rural Affairs (DEFRA), United Kingdom.
(2006b). BSE: Statistics—BSE–GB weekly
cumulative statistics; As of April 28, 2006.
Page last modified May 5, available at https://
www.defra.gov.uk/animalh/bse/statistics/
weeklystats.html#pass.
8. Department of Environment Food and
Rural Affairs (DEFRA), United Kingdom.
(2006a). BSE: Statistics—Confirmed cases of
BSE in GB by year of birth where known; As
of October 2, 2006. Page last modified
October 26, 2006, available at https://
www.defra.gov.uk/animalh/bse/statistics/
bse/yrbirth.html.
9. Animal and Plant Health Inspection
Service (APHIS). (2004). Analysis of risk—
update for the Final Rule: bovine spongiform
encephalopathy; minimal risk regions and
importation of commodities, page 13.
December 2004, available at https://
www.aphis.usda.gov/lpa/issues/bse/risk_
assessment/03-080-3_risk_doc.pdf.
10. Animal and Plant Health Inspection
Service (APHIS). (2003). Risk Analysis: BSE
Risk from Importation of Designated
Ruminants and Ruminant Products from
Canada into the United States, page 18.
October 2003, available at https://
aphis.usda.gov/lpa/issues/bse/bsecan_
risk_anal.pdf.
11. United States Department of
Agriculture (USDA). (2005). Assessment of
the Canadian Feed Ban. February, available
at https://www.aphis.usda.gov/lpa/issues/bse/
CAN-FeedBanReview.pdf.
12. Canadian Food Inspection Agency
(CFIA). (2005). Canadian Food Inspection
Agency Feed Ban Review. March 2, available
at https://www.inspection.gc.ca/english/ani
ma/feebet/rumin/revexa/revexae.shtml.
13. United States Department of
Agriculture (USDA). (2005a). U.S.
Department of Agriculture’s Summary of the
Epidemiological Findings of North American
Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy Positive
Cattle. April 29, available at https://
www.aphis.usda.gov/lpa/issues/bse/bse_
epi_report_4-29-05.doc.
14. National Research Council (NRC).
(1996). Nutrient Requirements of Beef Cattle.
7th edition. National Academy Press.
Washington, DC.
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15. National Research Council (NRC).
(2001). Nutrient Requirements of Dairy
Cattle. 7th edition. National Academy Press.
Washington, DC.
16. Canadian Food Inspection Agency
(CFIA). (2002). Risk Assessment on Bovine
Spongiform Encephalopathy in Cattle in
Canada. December, available at https://
www.inspection.gc.ca/english/sci/ahra/
bseris/bserise.shtml.
17. Leger, David. (2005). Public Health
Agency of Canada, personal communication,
December.
18. Gow, Sheryl. (2005). Public Health
Agency of Canada, personal communication,
December.
19. Animal and Plant Health Inspection
Service (APHIS). (2006). An Estimate of the
Prevalence of BSE in the United States. July
2006, available at https://
www.aphis.usda.gov/newsroom/hot_issues/
bse/bse_in_usa.shtml.
20. Farshid, M., R.E. Taffs, D. Scott, D.M.
Asher, and K. Brorson. (2005). The clearance
of viruses and transmissible spongiform
encephalopathy agents from biologicals.
Current Opinion in Biotechnology. 16: 561–
567.
21. European Commission Scientific
Steering Committee (EC SSC). (2002b).
Update of the opinion on TSE infectivity
distribution in ruminant tissues. November,
available at https://www.europa.eu.int/comm/
food/fs/sc/ssc/out296_en.pdf.
22. Food Safety and Inspection Service
(FSIS) (2005). Federal Register Volume 70,
No. 173, 53043–53050. Interim final rule,
‘‘Prohibition of the Use of Specified Risk
Materials for Human Food and Requirements
for the Disposition of Non-Ambulatory
Disabled Cattle.’’ Docket No. 03–025IFA.
September 7. Page 53043, available at https://
frwebgate.access.gpo.gov/cgi-bin/getpage.
cgi?position=all&page=53043&
dbname=2005_register.
23. Food and Drug Administration (FDA).
(2005). Federal Register Volume 70. Interim
final rule and request for comments, ‘‘Use of
Materials Derived From Cattle in Human
Food and Cosmetics.’’ Docket No. 2004N–
0081. September 7. Pages 53063–53069,
available at https://a257.g.akamaitech.net/7/
257/2422/01jan20051800/
edocket.access.gpo.gov/2005/pdf/0517693.pdf.
24. North American Natural Casings
Association (NANCA). (2004). Public
comment to FDA on interim final rule, ‘‘Use
of Materials Derived From Cattle in Human
Food and Cosmetics; and Recordkeeping
Requirements for Human Food and
Cosmetics Manufactured From, Processed
With, or Otherwise Containing, Material
From Cattle; Final Rule and Proposed Rule
(69 FR, No. 134, Wednesday, July 14, 2004,
pp. 42256–42285). October, available at
https://www.fda.gov/ohrms/dockets/dailys/
04/oct04/100604/04n-0081-c00081-01vol12.pdf.
List of Subjects
9 CFR Part 93
Animal diseases, Imports, Livestock,
Poultry and poultry products,
Quarantine, Reporting and
recordkeeping requirements.
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9 CFR Part 94
Animal diseases, Imports, Livestock,
Meat and meat products, Milk, Poultry
and poultry products, Reporting and
recordkeeping requirements.
9 CFR Part 95
Animal feeds, Hay, Imports,
Livestock, Reporting and recordkeeping
requirements, Straw, Transportation.
9 CFR Part 96
Imports, Livestock, Reporting and
recordkeeping requirements.
Accordingly, we are proposing to
amend 9 CFR parts 93, 94, 95, and 96
as follows:
PART 93—IMPORTATION OF CERTAIN
ANIMALS, BIRDS, AND POULTRY,
AND CERTAIN ANIMAL, BIRD, AND
POULTRY PRODUCTS;
REQUIREMENTS FOR MEANS OF
CONVEYANCE AND SHIPPING
CONTAINERS
1. The authority citation for part 93
would continue to read as follows:
Authority: 7 U.S.C. 1622 and 8301–8317;
21 U.S.C. 136 and 136a; 31 U.S.C. 9701; 7
CFR 2.22, 2.80, and 371.4.
§ 93.405
[Amended]
2. In § 93.405, paragraph (a)(4) would
be amended by removing the words
‘‘feedlot or recognized slaughtering
establishment’’ and adding in their
place the words ‘‘destination’’.
3. Section 93.419 would be amended
as follows:
a. Paragraphs (b) and (c) would be
revised to read as set forth below.
b. Paragraph (d) would be
redesignated as paragraph (e).
c. A new paragraph (d) would be
added to read as set forth below.
d. In newly designated paragraph
(e)(2), the reference to ‘‘paragraph
(d)(7)’’ would be removed and a
reference to ‘‘paragraph (e)(7)’’ would be
added in its place.
§ 93.419
Sheep and goats from Canada.
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*
*
*
*
*
(b) If the sheep or goats are
unaccompanied by the certificate
required by paragraph (a) of this section,
or if they are found upon inspection at
the port of entry to be affected with or
exposed to a communicable disease,
they shall be refused entry and shall be
handled or quarantined, or otherwise
disposed of, as the Administrator may
direct.
(c) Any sheep or goats imported from
Canada must not be pregnant, must be
less than 12 months of age when
imported into the United States and
when slaughtered, must be from a flock
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or herd subject to a ruminant feed ban
equivalent to the requirements
established by the U.S. Food and Drug
Administration at 21 CFR 589.2000, and
must be individually identified by an
official Canadian Food Inspection
Agency eartag applied before the
animal’s arrival at the port of entry into
the United States, that is determined by
the Administrator to meet standards
equivalent to those for official eartags in
the United States as defined in § 71.1 of
this chapter and to be traceable to the
premises of origin of the animal. No
person may alter, deface, remove, or
otherwise tamper with the individual
identification while the animal is in the
United States or moving into or through
the United States, except that the
identification may be removed at the
time of slaughter. The animals must be
accompanied by the certification issued
in accordance with § 93.405 that states,
in addition to the statements required
by § 93.405, that the conditions of this
paragraph have been met. Additionally,
for sheep and goats imported for
immediate slaughter, the certificate
must state that the conditions of
paragraphs (d)(1) through (d)(3) of this
section have been met, and, for sheep
and goats imported for other than
immediate slaughter, the certificate
must state that the conditions of
paragraphs (e)(1) and (e)(2) of this
section have been met.
(d) Sheep and goats imported for
immediate slaughter. Sheep and goats
imported from Canada for immediate
slaughter must be imported only
through a port of entry listed in
§ 93.403(b) or as provided for in
§ 93.403(f) in a means of conveyance
sealed in Canada with seals of the
Canadian Government, and must be
moved directly as a group from the port
of entry to a recognized slaughtering
establishment for slaughter as a group.
The sheep and goats shall be inspected
at the port of entry and otherwise
handled in accordance with § 93.408.
The seals on the means of conveyance
must be broken only at the port of entry
by the APHIS port veterinarian or at the
recognized slaughtering establishment
by an authorized USDA representative.
If the seals are broken by the APHIS port
veterinarian at the port of entry, the
means of conveyance must be resealed
with seals of the U.S. Government
before being moved to the recognized
slaughtering establishment. The
shipment must be accompanied from
the port of entry to the recognized
slaughtering establishment by APHIS
Form VS 17–33, which shall include the
location of the recognized slaughtering
establishment. Additionally, the sheep
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1127
and goats must meet the following
conditions:
(1) The animals have not tested
positive for and are not suspect for a
transmissible spongiform
encephalopathy;
(2) The animals have not resided in a
flock or herd that has been diagnosed
with BSE; and
(3) The animals’ movement is not
restricted within Canada as a result of
exposure to a transmissible spongiform
encephalopathy.
*
*
*
*
*
4. Section 93.420 would be revised to
read as follows:
§ 93.420 Ruminants from Canada for
immediate slaughter other than bovines,
sheep, and goats.
The requirements for the importation
of sheep and goats from Canada for
immediate slaughter are contained in
§ 93.419. The requirements for the
importation of bovines from Canada for
immediate slaughter are contained in
§ 93.436. All other ruminants imported
from Canada for immediate slaughter, in
addition to meeting all other applicable
requirements of this part, must be
imported only through a port of entry
listed in § 93.403(b) or as provided for
in § 93.403(f) to a recognized
slaughtering establishment for slaughter,
in conveyances that must be sealed with
seals of the U.S. Government at the port
of entry. The seals may be broken only
at a recognized slaughtering
establishment in the United States by an
authorized USDA representative. The
shipment must be accompanied from
the port of entry to the recognized
slaughtering establishment by APHIS
Form VS 17–33, which must include the
location of the recognized slaughtering
establishment. Such ruminants shall be
inspected at the port of entry and
otherwise handled in accordance with
§ 93.408.
(Approved by the Office of Management
and Budget under control number 0579–
0277)
5. Section 93.436 would be amended
as follows:
a. Paragraphs (a) and (b) would be
revised to read as set forth below.
b. In paragraph (c), the reference to
‘‘§§ 93.419(c) and 93.420’’ would be
removed and a reference to ‘‘§§ 93.405
and 93.419’’ would be added in its
place.
§ 93.436 Ruminants from regions of
minimal risk for BSE.
*
*
*
*
*
(a) Bovines for immediate slaughter.
Bovines from a region listed in
§ 94.18(a)(3) of this subchapter may be
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imported for immediate slaughter under
the following conditions:
(1) The bovines must have been born
on or after a date determined by APHIS
to be the date of effective enforcement
of a ruminant-to-ruminant feed ban in
the region of export. For bovines
imported from Canada, that date is
March 1, 1999.
(2) Each bovine must be individually
identified by an official eartag of the
country of origin, applied before the
animal’s arrival at the port of entry into
the United States, that is determined by
the Administrator to meet standards
equivalent to those for official eartags in
this chapter and to be traceable to the
premises of origin of the animal. No
person may alter, deface, remove, or
otherwise tamper with the official
identification while the animal is in the
United States or moving into or through
the United States, except that the
identification may be removed at the
time of slaughter;
(3) The bovines must be accompanied
by a certificate issued in accordance
with § 93.405 that states, in addition to
the statements required by § 93.405, that
the conditions of paragraphs (a)(1) and
(a)(2) of this section have been met;
(4) The bovines must be imported
only through a port of entry listed in
§ 93.403(b) or as provided for in
§ 93.403(f). The bovines shall be
inspected at the port of entry and
otherwise handled in accordance with
§ 93.408;
(5) The bovines must be moved
directly from the port of entry to a
recognized slaughtering establishment.
Bovines imported from Canada must be
moved to the slaughtering establishment
in conveyances that are sealed with
seals of the U.S. Government at the port
of entry. The seals may be broken only
at the recognized slaughtering
establishment by an authorized USDA
representative; and
(6) The bovines must be accompanied
from the port of entry to the recognized
slaughtering establishment by APHIS
Form VS 17–33.
(b) Bovines for other than immediate
slaughter. Bovines from a region listed
in § 94.18(a)(3) of this subchapter may
be imported for other than immediate
slaughter under the following
conditions:
(1) The bovines must have been born
on or after a date determined by APHIS
to be the date of effective enforcement
of a ruminant-to-ruminant feed ban in
the region of export. For bovines
imported from Canada, that date is
March 1, 1999.
(2) The bovines must be permanently
and humanely identified before arrival
at the port of entry with a distinct and
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15:39 Jan 08, 2007
Jkt 211001
legible mark identifying the exporting
country. Acceptable means of
permanent identification include the
following:
(i) A mark properly applied with a
freeze brand, hot iron, or other method,
and easily visible on the live animal and
on the carcass before skinning. Such a
mark must be not less than 2 inches nor
more than 3 inches high, and must be
applied to each animal’s right hip, high
on the tail-head (over the junction of the
sacral and first cocygeal vertebrae).
Bovines exported from Canada so
marked must be marked with ‘‘CAN’’;
(ii) A tattoo with letters identifying
the exporting country must be applied
to the inside of one ear of the animal.
For bovines exported from Canada, the
tattoo must read ‘‘CAN’’;
(iii) Other means of permanent
identification upon request if deemed
adequate by the Administrator to
humanely identify the animal in a
distinct and legible way as having been
imported from the BSE minimal-risk
exporting region.
(3) Each bovine must be individually
identified by an official eartag of the
country of origin, applied before the
animal’s arrival at the port of entry into
the United States, that is determined by
the Administrator to meet standards
equivalent to those for official eartags in
§ 71.1 of this chapter and to be traceable
to the premises of origin of the animal.
No person may alter, deface, remove, or
otherwise tamper with the official
identification while the animal is in the
United States or moving into or through
the United States, except that the
identification may be removed at the
time of slaughter;
(4) The bovines must be accompanied
by a certificate issued in accordance
with § 93.405 that states, in addition to
the statements required by § 93.405, that
the conditions of paragraphs (a)(1) and
(a)(2) of this section have been met; and
(5) The bovines must be imported
only through a port of entry listed in
§ 93.403(b) or as provided for in
§ 93.403(f).
*
*
*
*
*
PART 94—RINDERPEST, FOOT-ANDMOUTH DISEASE, FOWL PEST (FOWL
PLAGUE), EXOTIC NEWCASTLE
DISEASE, AFRICAN SWINE FEVER,
CLASSICAL SWINE FEVER, AND
BOVINE SPONGIFORM
ENCEPHALOPATHY: PROHIBITED
AND RESTRICTED IMPORTATIONS
6. The authority citation for part 94
would continue to read as follows:
Authority: 7 U.S.C. 450, 7701–7772, 7781–
7786, and 8301–8317; 21 U.S.C. 136 and
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Fmt 4701
Sfmt 4702
136a; 31 U.S.C. 9701; 7 CFR 2.22, 2.80, and
371.4.
§ 94.19
[Amended]
7. In § 94.19, paragraphs (a)(2), (b)(2),
and (f) would be amended by removing
the words ‘‘and small intestine’’ each
time they appear.
PART 95—SANITARY CONTROL OF
ANIMAL BYPRODUCTS (EXCEPT
CASINGS), AND HAY AND STRAW,
OFFERED FOR ENTRY INTO THE
UNITED STATES
8. The authority citation for part 95
would continue to read as follows:
Authority: 7 U.S.C. 8301–8317; 21 U.S.C.
136 and 136a; 31 U.S.C. 9701; 7 CFR 2.22,
2.80, and 371.4.
9. Section 95.4 would be amended as
follows:
a. The heading and the paragraph (a)
introductory text would be revised to
read as set forth below.
b. Paragraphs (e) through (h) would be
redesignated as paragraphs (f) through
(i), respectively.
c. Paragraphs (a)(1)(ii) and (a)(1)(iv)
would be revised to read as set forth
below.
d. In paragraph (b), the words
‘‘paragraphs (d) and (h)’’ would be
removed and the words ‘‘paragraphs (d),
(e), and (i)’’ would be added in their
place.
e. Paragraph (d) introductory text
would be revised to read as set forth
below.
f. New paragraph (e) would be added
to read as set forth below.
g. In newly designated paragraph
(h)(1)(i), the words ‘‘and small
intestine’’ would be removed.
h. In newly designated paragraph (i)
introductory text, the words
‘‘paragraphs (h)(1) through (h)(3)’’
would be removed and the words
paragraphs ‘‘paragraphs (i)(1) through
(i)(3)’’ would be added in their place.
§ 95.4 Restrictions on the importation of
processed animal protein, offal, tankage,
fat, glands, certain tallow other than tallow
derivatives, and blood and blood products
due to bovine spongiform encephalopathy.
(a) Except as provided in paragraphs
(c) through (i) of this section, the
importation of the following is
prohibited:
(1) * * *
(ii) Glands, unprocessed fat tissue,
and blood and blood products derived
from ruminants;
*
*
*
*
*
(iv) Derivatives of glands and blood
and blood products derived from
ruminants;
*
*
*
*
*
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(d) Except as provided in paragraph
(e) of this section, the importation of
serum albumin, serocolostrum, amniotic
liquids or extracts, and placental liquids
derived from ruminants that have been
in any region listed in § 94.18(a) of this
chapter, and collagen and collagen
products that meet any of the conditions
listed paragraphs (a)(1) through (a)(3) of
this section, is prohibited unless the
following conditions have been met:
*
*
*
*
*
(e) Bovine blood and blood products
that are otherwise prohibited
importation under paragraph (a)(1) or
(d) of this section may be imported into
the United States if they meet the
following conditions:
(1) For blood collected at slaughter
and for products derived from blood
collected at slaughter:
(i) The blood was collected in a closed
system in which the blood was
conveyed directly from the animal in a
closed conduit to a closed receptacle, or
was collected otherwise in an hygienic
manner that prevents contamination of
the blood with SRMs.
(ii) The slaughtered animal passed
ante-mortem inspection and was not
subjected to a pithing process or to a
stunning process with a device injecting
compressed air or gas into the cranial
cavity;
(2) For fetal bovine serum:
(i) The blood from which the fetal
bovine serum was derived was collected
in a closed system in which the blood
was conveyed directly from the animal
in a closed conduit to a closed
receptacle, or was collected otherwise in
an hygienic manner that prevents
contamination of the blood with SRMs;
(ii) The dam of the fetal calf passed
ante-mortem inspection and was not
subjected to a pithing process or to a
stunning process with a device injecting
compressed air or gas into the cranial
cavity;
(iii) The uterus was removed from the
dam’s abdominal cavity intact and taken
to a separate area sufficiently removed
from the slaughtering area of the facility
to ensure that the fetal blood was not
contaminated with SRMs when
collected.
(3) For blood collected from live
donor bovines and for products derived
from blood collected from live donor
bovines:
(i) The blood was collected in a closed
system in which the blood was
conveyed directly from the animal in a
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closed conduit to a closed receptacle, or
was collected otherwise in a hygienic
manner that prevents contamination of
the blood with SRMs;
(ii) The donor animal was free of
clinical signs of disease.
(4) Each shipment to the United States
is accompanied by an original certificate
signed by a full-time salaried veterinary
officer of the national government of the
region of origin, or issued by a
veterinarian designated by or accredited
by the national government of the region
of origin, representing that the
veterinarian issuing the certificate was
authorized to do so. The certificate must
state that the requirements of paragraph
(e)(1), (e)(2), or (e)(3) of this section, as
applicable, have been met.
*
*
*
*
*
PART 96—RESTRICTION OF
IMPORTATIONS OF FOREIGN ANIMAL
CASINGS OFFERED FOR ENTRY INTO
THE UNITED STATES
10. The authority citation for part 96
would continue to read as follows:
Authority: 7 U.S.C. 8301–8317; 21 U.S.C.
136 and 136a; 7 CFR 2.22, 2.80, and 371.4.
11. In § 96.1, new definitions of Food
and Drug Administration and Food
Safety and Inspection Service would be
added, in alphabetical order, to read as
follows:
§ 96.1
Definitions.
*
*
*
*
*
Food and Drug Administration. The
Food and Drug Administration of the
United States Department of Health and
Human Services.
Food Safety and Inspection Service.
The Food Safety and Inspection Service
of the United States Department of
Agriculture.
*
*
*
*
*
12. In § 96.2, paragraph (b) would be
revised to read as follows:
§ 96.2 Prohibition of casings due to
African swine fever and bovine spongiform
encephalopathy.
*
*
*
*
*
(b) Ruminant casings. The
importation of casings, except stomachs,
from ruminants that originated in or
were processed in any region listed in
§ 94.18(a) of this subchapter is
prohibited, except as provided in
paragraphs (b)(1) and (b)(2) of this
section:
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1129
(1) Casings that are derived from
sheep that were slaughtered in a region
listed in § 94.18(a)(3) of this subchapter
at less than 12 months of age and that
were from a flock subject to a ruminant
feed ban equivalent to the requirements
established by the U.S. Food and Drug
Administration at 21 CFR 589.2000 may
be imported.
(2) Casings that are derived from
bovines that were slaughtered in a
region listed in § 94.18(a)(3) of this
subchapter may be imported, provided,
if the casings are derived from the small
intestine, the casings are derived from
that part of the small intestine that is
eligible for use as human food in
accordance with the requirements
established by the Food Safety and
Inspection Service at 9 CFR 310.22 and
the Food and Drug Administration at 21
CFR 189.5.
(3) Casings imported in accordance
with either paragraph (b)(1) or (b)(2) of
this section must be accompanied by a
certificate that:
(i) States that the casings meet the
conditions of this section;
(ii) Is written in English;
(iii) Is signed by an individual eligible
to issue the certificate required under
§ 96.3; and
(iv) Is presented to an authorized
inspector at the port of entry.
(Approved by the Office of Management
and Budget under control number 0579–
0015)
13. In § 96.3, paragraph (d) would be
revised to read as follows:
§ 96.3
Certificate for animal casings.
*
*
*
*
*
(d) In addition to meeting the
requirements of this section, the
certificate accompanying sheep casings
from a region listed in § 94.18(a)(3) of
this subchapter must state that the
casings meet the requirements of
§ 96.2(b)(1) and the certificate
accompanying bovine casings from a
region listed in § 94.18(a)(3) of this
subchapter must state that the casings
meet the requirements of § 96.2(b)(2).
*
*
*
*
*
Done in Washington, DC, this 3rd day of
January 2007.
Bruce Knight,
Under Secretary for Marketing and Regulatory
Programs.
[FR Doc. 07–17 Filed 1–4–07; 3:00 pm]
BILLING CODE 3410–34–P
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Agencies
[Federal Register Volume 72, Number 5 (Tuesday, January 9, 2007)]
[Proposed Rules]
[Pages 1102-1129]
From the Federal Register Online via the Government Printing Office [www.gpo.gov]
[FR Doc No: 07-17]
[[Page 1101]]
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Part III
Department of Agriculture
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
9 CFR Parts 93, 94, 95, and 96
Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy; Minimal-Risk Regions; Importation of
Live Bovines and Products Derived From Bovines; Proposed Rule
Federal Register / Vol. 72, No. 5 / Tuesday, January 9, 2007 /
Proposed Rules
[[Page 1102]]
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service
9 CFR Parts 93, 94, 95, and 96
[Docket No. APHIS-2006-0041]
RIN 0579-AC01
Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy; Minimal-Risk Regions;
Importation of Live Bovines and Products Derived From Bovines
AGENCY: Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, USDA.
ACTION: Proposed rule.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
SUMMARY: We are proposing to amend the regulations regarding the
importation of animals and animal products to establish conditions for
the importation of the following commodities from regions that present
a minimal risk of introducing bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE)
into the United States: Live bovines for any use born on or after a
date determined by APHIS to be the date of effective enforcement of a
ruminant-to-ruminant feed ban in the region of export; blood and blood
products derived from bovines; and casings and part of the small
intestine derived from bovines. We are proposing these amendments after
conducting a risk assessment and comprehensive evaluation of the issues
that concluded that such bovines and bovine products can be safely
imported under the conditions described in this proposed rule.
DATES: We will consider all comments that we receive on or before March
12, 2007.
ADDRESSES: You may submit comments by either of the following methods:
Federal eRulemaking Portal: Go to https://
www.regulations.gov, select ``Animal and Plant Health Inspection
Service'' from the agency drop-down menu, then click ``Submit.'' In the
Docket ID column, select APHIS-2006-0041 to submit or view public
comments and to view supporting and related materials available
electronically. Information on using Regulations.gov, including
instructions for accessing documents, submitting comments, and viewing
the docket after the close of the comment period, is available through
the site's ``User Tips'' link.
Postal Mail/Commercial Delivery: Please send four copies
of your comment (an original and three copies) to Docket No. APHIS
2006-0041, Regulatory Analysis and Development, PPD, APHIS, Station 3A-
03.8, 4700 River Road Unit 118, Riverdale, MD 20737-1238. Please state
that your comment refers to Docket No. APHIS 2006-0041.
Reading Room: You may read any comments that we receive on this
docket in our reading room. The reading room is located in room 1141 of
the USDA South Building, 14th Street and Independence Avenue, SW.,
Washington, DC. Normal reading room hours are 8 a.m. to 4:30 p.m.,
Monday through Friday, except holidays. To be sure someone is there to
help you, please call (202) 690-2817 before coming.
Other Information: Additional information about APHIS and its
programs is available on the Internet at https://www.aphis.usda.gov.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: For information regarding ruminant
products, contact Dr. Karen James-Preston, Director, Technical Trade
Services, Animal Products, National Center for Import and Export, VS,
APHIS, 4700 River Road Unit 38, Riverdale, MD 20737-1231; (301) 734-
4356.
For information concerning live ruminants, contact Dr. Lee Ann
Thomas, Director, Technical Trade Services, Animals, Organisms and
Vectors, and Select Agents, National Center for Import and Export, VS,
APHIS, 4700 River Road Unit 38, Riverdale, MD 20737-1231; (301) 734-
4356.
For other information concerning this proposed rule, contact Dr.
Lisa Ferguson, Senior Staff Veterinarian, National Center for Animal
Health Programs, VS, APHIS, 4700 River Road Unit 43, Riverdale, MD
20737-1231; (301) 734-6954.
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION:
I. Background
The Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) of the U.S.
Department of Agriculture (USDA or Department) regulates the
importation of animals and animal products into the United States to
guard against the introduction of animal diseases. The regulations in 9
CFR parts 93, 94, 95, and 96 (referred to below as the regulations)
govern the importation of certain animals, birds, poultry, meat, other
animal products and byproducts, hay, and straw into the United States
in order to prevent the introduction of various animal diseases,
including bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE), a chronic
degenerative disease affecting the central nervous system of cattle.
With some exceptions, APHIS' regulations prohibit or restrict the
importation of live ruminants and certain ruminant products and
byproducts from the following three categories of regions with regard
to BSE: (1) Those regions in which BSE is known to exist (listed in
Sec. 94.18(a)(1) of the regulations); (2) those regions that present
an undue risk of introducing BSE into the United States because their
import requirements are less restrictive than those that would be
acceptable for import into the United States and/or because the regions
have inadequate surveillance (listed in Sec. 94.18(a)(2) of the
regulations); and (3) those regions that present a minimal risk of
introducing BSE into the United States via live ruminants and ruminant
products and byproducts (listed in Sec. 94.18(a)(3) of the
regulations).
Chronology of APHIS Federal Register Publications Regarding BSE
Minimal-Risk Regions
We added the Sec. 94.18(a)(3) category (BSE minimal-risk regions)
to the regulations in a final rule published in the Federal Register on
January 4, 2005 (70 FR 459-553, Docket No. 03-080-3). In the final
rule, we specified which commodities may be imported from BSE minimal-
risk regions and under what conditions, and recognized Canada as a BSE
minimal-risk region. (At this time, Canada is the only recognized BSE
minimal-risk region.)
The January 2005 final rule was based on a proposed rule we
published in the Federal Register on November 4, 2003 (68 FR 62386-
62405, Docket No. 03-080-1). On December 25, 2003, less than 2 weeks
before the close of the comment period for our proposed rule, a case of
BSE in a dairy cow of Canadian origin in Washington State was verified
by an international reference laboratory.
In response to comments from the public requesting an extension of
the comment period and in order to give the public an additional
opportunity to comment on the proposed rule in light of this
development, on March 8, 2004, we published a notice in the Federal
Register (69 FR 10633-10636, Docket No. 03-080-2) reopening and
extending the comment period.
On January 5, 2005, along with the final rule, we published in the
Federal Register a notice (70 FR 554, Docket No. 03-080-4) announcing
the availability of, and requesting comments on, a final environmental
assessment (EA) regarding the potential impact on the quality of the
human environment due to the importation of ruminants and ruminant
products and byproducts from Canada under the conditions specified in
the final rule. On January 21, 2005, we published in the Federal
Register a
[[Page 1103]]
notice (70 FR 3183-3184, Docket No. 03-080-5) announcing the
availability of a corrected version of the EA for public review and
comment. On April 8, 2005, we published in the Federal Register a
finding (70 FR 18252-18262, Docket No. 03-080-7) that the provisions of
the final rule would not have a significant impact on the quality of
the human environment.
On March 11, 2005, we published a document in the Federal Register
that gave notice that the Secretary of Agriculture was delaying until
further notice the implementation of certain provisions of the final
rule with regard to certain commodities (70 FR 12112-12113, Docket No.
03-080-6).
On November 28, 2005, we published in the Federal Register an
interim rule (70 FR 71213-71218, Docket No. 03-080-8) that amended
certain provisions established by the January 2005 final rule. The
interim rule broadened the list of who is authorized to break seals on
conveyances and allows transloading under supervision of products
transiting the United States.
On March 14, 2006, we published in the Federal Register a technical
amendment (71 FR 12994-12998, Docket No. 03-080-9) that clarified our
intent with regard to certain provisions in the January 2005 final rule
and corrected several inconsistencies within the rule.
On August 9, 2006, we published in the Federal Register a proposed
rule (71 FR 45439-45444, Docket No. APHIS-2006-0026) that proposed to
amend the provisions established by the January 2005 final rule by
removing several restrictions regarding the identification of animals
and the processing of ruminant materials from BSE minimal-risk regions,
and by relieving BSE-based restrictions on hide-derived gelatin from
BSE minimal-risk regions. We solicited comments concerning our proposal
for 60 days ending October 10, 2006. On November 9, 2006, we published
a notice in the Federal Register (71 FR 65758-65759, Docket No. APHIS-
2006-0026) reopening and extended the comment period until November 24,
2006. We received a total of 10 comments by that date. We are
considering the issues raised by the commenters and will address them
in a separate rulemaking document.
Scope of the January 2005 Final Rule
The regulations established by the January 2005 final rule and
subsequent amendments allow the importation from BSE minimal-risk
regions of live bovines that are under 30 months of age when imported
and when slaughtered and that have been subject to a ruminant feed ban
equivalent to that in place in the United States. The risk analysis we
conducted for that rule found that, because of the nature, incubation
period, and progression of BSE infectivity, young cattle exposed to low
levels of BSE will accumulate very little BSE infectivity within the
first few years of life, and that cattle under 30 months of age from a
BSE minimal-risk region are highly unlikely to have accumulated
significant amounts of BSE infectivity even if infected. We concluded,
therefore, that the risk to U.S. livestock presented by the importation
of such bovines was low.
We did not attempt, for that rulemaking, to assess the BSE risk
associated with the importation of live bovines 30 months of age or
older from a BSE minimal-risk region. Our March 8, 2004, notice that
reopened and extended the comment period on the November 2003 proposed
rule stated that APHIS was evaluating the appropriate approach with
regard to the importation of live animals 30 months of age or older
from BSE minimal-risk regions, and would address that issue in a
supplemental rulemaking proposal in the Federal Register. The
provisions in this proposed rule regarding live bovines are the result
of that evaluation.
The regulations established by the January 2005 final rule also
allow the importation of the following commodities derived from bovines
of any age: (1) Meat, meat food products, and meat byproducts; (2)
whole or half carcasses; (3) offal; (4) tallow composed of less than
0.15 percent insoluble impurities that are not otherwise eligible for
importation under Sec. 95.4(a)(1)(i) of the regulations; and (5)
gelatin derived from bones of bovines that is not otherwise eligible
for importation under Sec. 94.18(c) of the regulations.
The January 2005 final rule and subsequent amendments did not
change the regulations concerning the importation of blood and blood
products from regions listed in Sec. 94.18(a); the requirements for
the importation of blood and blood products from BSE minimal-risk
regions remain the same as the requirements for importation of blood
and blood products from other regions listed in Sec. 94.18(a)--only
serum and serum albumin are eligible for importation. The January 2005
final rule also did not change the regulations concerning the
importation of bovine casings (defined as intestines, stomachs,
esophagi, and urinary bladders) from regions listed in Sec. 94.18(a);
the requirements for the importation of bovine casings from BSE
minimal-risk regions remain the same as the requirements for
importation of bovine casings from other regions listed in Sec. in
94.18(a)--only bovine stomachs are eligible for importation.
The January 2005 final rule and subsequent amendments allowed trade
to resume in many, but not all, of the commodities that had been
prohibited importation from Canada following detection of a BSE-
infected cow in Canada in May 2003. We have continued to consider the
BSE risk associated with older bovines and other bovine products from
BSE minimal-risk regions--and Canada in particular--including bovine
blood and blood products, bovine small intestine other than the distal
ileum, and bovine casings, which are the subject of this proposed rule.
Under the Animal Health Protection Act (7 U.S.C. 8301 et seq.), the
Secretary of Agriculture may prohibit the importation of any animal or
article if the Secretary determines that the prohibition is necessary
to prevent the introduction into or dissemination within the United
States of any pest or disease of livestock. The Secretary has
determined that it is not necessary to continue to prohibit the
importation from BSE minimal-risk regions (currently only Canada) of
live bovines born after the date a feed ban was effectively enforced in
the region of export, bovine blood or blood products, bovine small
intestine other than the distal ileum, or bovine casings, provided that
the conditions described in this proposal are met.\1\ This
determination is based on a number of factors, which are discussed in
this document and, in greater detail, in the risk assessment prepared
for this rulemaking. The risk assessment, and the peer review plan and
charge for this assessment may be viewed on the Regulations.gov Web
site or in our reading room. Instructions for accessing Regulations.gov
and information on the location and hours of the reading room are
provided under the heading ADDRESSES at the beginning of this proposed
rule.) In addition, copies may be obtained by calling or writing to the
[[Page 1104]]
individuals listed under FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\1\ The current regulations regarding BSE minimal-risk regions
apply to bison as well as cattle. In current Sec. Sec. 93.400,
94.0, and 95.1 of the regulations, bovine is defined as Bos taurus,
Bos indicus, and Bison bison. Although the research and other data
cited in this proposed rule refer to bovines other than bison (i.e.,
to ``cattle''), there is no evidence to indicate that the BSE
susceptibility of bison differs from that of cattle. We therefore
assume that our conclusions based on cattle-specific evidence
discussed in this proposed rule are also applicable to bison. Given
that no cases of BSE have been detected in bison, this is likely a
cautious assumption. The provisions of this proposed rule would
apply to bovines as defined in the current regulations, which
include bison.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
II. BSE and the Government's Role in Protecting Human and Animal Health
A. Nature of BSE
BSE is a progressive and fatal neurological disorder of cattle that
results from an unconventional transmissible agent. BSE belongs to the
family of diseases known as transmissible spongiform encephalopathies
(TSEs). All TSEs affect the central nervous system of infected animals.
However, the distribution of infectivity in the body of the animal and
mode of transmission differ according to the species and TSE agent. In
addition to BSE, TSEs include, among other diseases, scrapie in sheep
and goats, chronic wasting disease in deer and elk, and Creutzfeldt-
Jakob disease in humans.
The agent that causes BSE has yet to be fully characterized. The
theory that is most accepted in the international scientific community
is that the agent is an abnormal form of a normal protein known as
cellular prion protein. The BSE agent does not evoke a traditional
immune response or inflammatory reaction in host animals. BSE is
confirmed by post-mortem microscopic examination of an animal's brain
tissue or by detection of the abnormal form of the prion protein in an
animal's brain tissues. The pathogenic form of the protein is both less
soluble and more resistant to degradation than the normal form. The BSE
agent is resistant to heat and to normal sterilization processes.
BSE is not a contagious disease, and therefore is not spread
through casual contact between animals. (The possibility of maternal
transmission (i.e., from a bovine dam directly to her offspring) was
suggested by a 1997 study (Ref 1) conducted in the United Kingdom.
However, subsequent studies have shown that it is unlikely that
maternal transmission of BSE occurs at any epidemiologically
significant level, if it occurs at all (Ref 2)). Scientists believe
that the primary route of transmission requires that cattle ingest feed
that has been contaminated with a sufficient amount of tissue from an
infected animal. This route of transmission can be prevented by
excluding potentially contaminated materials from ruminant feed.
B. U.S. Government's Role in Protecting Human and Animal Health
Because variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob Disease (vCJD), a chronic and
fatal neurodegenerative disease of humans, has been linked via
scientific and epidemiological studies to exposure to the BSE agent,
most likely through consumption of cattle products contaminated with
the BSE agent, APHIS collaborates with other Federal agencies to
implement a coordinated U.S. response to BSE.
Protecting human and animal health from the risks of BSE is carried
out on the Federal level primarily by APHIS regarding animal health and
the Department's Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) regarding
the food safety of meat and poultry, in coordination with the following
Centers of the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), U.S. Department of
Health and Human Services: The Center for Veterinary Medicine regarding
animal feed and animal drugs; the Center for Food Safety and Applied
Nutrition regarding foods other than meat, poultry, and egg products;
the Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research regarding blood and
blood products and other products; the Center for Drug Evaluation and
Research regarding drugs containing bovine material; and the Center for
Devices and Radiological Health regarding devices containing bovine
material.
APHIS recognizes that, although Federal agencies may differ
somewhat in their specific mandates, it is necessary to conduct a
coordinated Federal effort to safeguard human and animal health. We
consider it important to base APHIS' regulatory actions on the best
scientific evidence. Additionally, as the agencies make BSE-related
documents available for public comment, or otherwise solicit public
response, the agencies share and discuss information received.
Of recent note is information solicited and received by FSIS
between July and October 2006 regarding the 2005 updated Harvard Risk
Assessment of BSE associated with public health exposure. FSIS
discussed with APHIS and FDA public comments it received in response to
a notice of availability (71 FR 39282-39283, Docket No. FSIS-2006-0011,
published in the Federal Register July 12, 2006) and a public technical
meeting regarding the risk assessment and the potential of BSE exposure
and animal health. APHIS has taken relevant comments received into
consideration with regard to its risk assessment for this proposed
rule.
III. Commodities Covered by This Proposed Rule
This rule would amend the APHIS regulations as they apply to the
importation of the following commodities from BSE minimal-risk regions:
Live bovines;
Blood and blood products derived from bovines;
Small intestine, other than the distal ileum, derived from
bovines; and
Casings derived from bovines.
This part of the Supplementary Information section of this proposed
rule discusses the risks associated with each commodity, mitigations
that address the risk, and how we propose to amend the regulations to
allow the importation of these commodities.
A. Live Bovines
BSE Transmission
As noted above under ``Nature of BSE,'' oral ingestion of feed
contaminated with the BSE agent is the only documented route of field
transmission of BSE (Ref 2 and 3). Several steps must take place for
BSE to be transmitted to cattle in the United States from a bovine
imported live from another country. A BSE-infected bovine must be
imported into the United States; the infected bovine must die or be
slaughtered; tissues from that animal that contain the infectious agent
must be sent to a rendering facility; the infectivity present in these
tissues must survive inactivation in the rendering process; the
resulting meat-and-bone meal containing the abnormal prion protein must
be incorporated into feed; and this feed must be fed to cattle at a
level adequate to infect the cattle. (The amount of infectious material
required in feed for cattle to become infected is dependent on the age
of the cattle; younger cattle are more susceptible to BSE and require
less BSE-contaminated feed to become infected (Ref 4).)
Proposed Regulatory Change; OIE Guideline
The first step that must occur for BSE to be transmitted to cattle
in the United States from a BSE-infected bovine imported live into this
country from a BSE minimal-risk region is that such a bovine must enter
the United States. Under our current regulations, the risk of such a
bovine entering the United States is already very low because of the
APHIS regulatory standards for importation from BSE minimal-risk
regions.
In this document, we are proposing to allow the importation of live
bovines from BSE minimal-risk regions if the animals were born on or
after a date determined by APHIS to be the date on and after which a
ruminant-to-ruminant feed ban in the region of export has been
effectively enforced. Experience around the world in countries with BSE
has demonstrated that feed bans are
[[Page 1105]]
effective control measures, and that the incidence of BSE worldwide
continues to decline because of these measures (Ref 5 and 6).
Because of the demonstrated efficacy of an effectively enforced
feed ban in reducing the possibility of exposure of cattle to the BSE
agent, the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE) provides
guidelines for trade in live cattle from regions that have reported BSE
if such regions have an effective feed ban in place, provided the
cattle were born after the date when the feed ban was effectively
enforced (OIE Terrestrial Animal Health Code, Chapter 2.3.13). The
condition in this proposed rule for the importation of live bovines
from BSE minimal-risk regions is consistent with the OIE guideline.
Importance of a Feed Ban in Reducing the Likelihood of BSE Transmission
By eliminating transmission, an effective feed ban reduces the
possibility of the existence of infected animals in a given cattle
population, which in turn reduces even further the chances of healthy
animals being exposed to the BSE agent via subsequent recycling of
infectivity.
Experience in the United Kingdom demonstrates that implementation
of a ruminant-to-ruminant feed ban causes BSE prevalence to decrease.
Animal feed restrictions were implemented in the United Kingdom in
1988, when the use of ruminant meat-and-bone meal (MBM) in ruminant
animal feed was banned. In September 1990, the use of specified bovine
offals was banned for use in any animal feed. This ban prohibited the
use in any animal feed of bovine tissues with the highest potential
concentration of infectivity. In 1994, the use of mammalian protein--
not just ruminant protein--was banned from ruminant feed. In 1996,
feeding of any farmed livestock, including fish and horses, with
mammalian MBM was completely banned. As a result of reducing the
recycling of infectivity, the annual incidence of BSE fell by 99.4
percent, from 36,680 in 1992 to 203 in 2005 (Ref 7).
Although the data presented in the following figure and table
represent the specific situation in Great Britain during the years
identified in the graph, there is every reason to expect downward
pressure on the prevalence of BSE in any country that implements a feed
ban.
[GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] TP09JA07.002
Figure 1. Confirmed cases in cattle in Great Britain born after feed
ban implementation. Note: The first feed ban was implemented in the
summer of 1988 (before fall calving) (Ref 8).
The raw data that provided the basis for Figure 1 are reproduced in
Table 1:
Table 1.--Confirmed Cases in Great Britain by Year of Birth, Where Known
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Year Cases
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1974....................................................... 1
1975....................................................... 0
1976....................................................... 2
1977....................................................... 10
1978....................................................... 6
1979....................................................... 41
1980....................................................... 102
1981....................................................... 262
1982....................................................... 1,394
1983....................................................... 4,463
1984....................................................... 8,069
1985....................................................... 11,071
1986....................................................... 19,752
1987....................................................... 36,935
1988....................................................... 22,266
1989....................................................... 12,748
1990....................................................... 5,748
1991....................................................... 4,779
1992....................................................... 3,531
1993....................................................... 2,997
1994....................................................... 2,182
1995....................................................... 1,100
1996....................................................... 67
1997....................................................... 45
1998....................................................... 37
1999....................................................... 24
2000....................................................... 6
2001....................................................... 5
2002....................................................... 1
Unknown birth year......................................... 43,342
------------
Total.................................................. 180,986
------------------------------------------------------------------------
(Ref 8)
Determining a Date of Effective Enforcement of a Feed Ban
Under the current regulations, one of the conditions that must be
met for a region to be recognized by APHIS as a BSE minimal-risk region
is that the region must have in place a ruminant-to-ruminant feed ban
that is effectively enforced. APHIS bases its determination
[[Page 1106]]
of whether a region has in place an effectively enforced ruminant-to-
ruminant feed ban on an evaluation of the laws and regulations in place
in the region, the adequacy of the infrastructure to implement the
regulations, and the evidence of effective implementation and
monitoring (i.e., compliance inspections, training and records).
We are proposing in this rule to require that bovines from a BSE
minimal-risk region intended for importation into the United States
have been born on or after the date determined by APHIS to be the date
of effective enforcement of a ruminant-to-ruminant feed ban in the
region of export. In determining the date of effective enforcement of a
feed ban, we believe it is first necessary to consider the amount of
time, if any, between the regulatory establishment of the feed ban in
the region of export and the practical implementation of the ban. The
period of practical implementation can be determined by evaluating
implementation guidance and policies, such as allowing grace periods
for certain aspects of the industry. In addition, the time necessary
for initial education of industry and training of inspectors must be
considered.
After the practical implementation period is determined, we believe
it is then necessary to consider whether, in the region being
evaluated, an additional period of time was needed to allow most feed
products to cycle through the system, given the management practices in
the country.
Feed Ban in Canada
In conjunction with the rulemaking that resulted in the January
2005 final rule, APHIS conducted a risk analysis in 2003 and 2004 to
evaluate the BSE risk from ruminants and ruminant products imported
from regions presenting a minimal BSE risk, and to evaluate whether
Canada could be classified as a minimal risk region (Ref 9 and 10). As
part of the risk analysis, USDA evaluated a series of measures
introduced in Canada to prevent the feeding of ruminant proteins to
ruminant animals. USDA considered the compliance activities reported by
the Canadian Food Inspection Agency (CFIA) as well as epidemiological
information in concluding that compliance with the feed ban was good,
and that the feed ban was effectively enforced. In response to the
detection of two additional BSE cases in Canada, in January 2005, USDA
reassessed the oversight of Canada's feed ban. Based on review of
inspection records and on-site observations, USDA confirmed that Canada
has a robust inspection program, that overall compliance with the feed
ban is good, and that the feed ban is reducing the risk of transmission
of BSE in the Canadian cattle population (Ref 11). In addition to the
USDA audit of the Canadian feed ban, CFIA conducted its own review in
2005, and concluded that the ban is providing an effective mitigation
that is contributing to reducing the BSE risk in the country to an
extremely low level (Ref 12).
Components of the Canadian Feed Ban
Canada's feed ban came into force on August 4, 1997, when CFIA
issued regulations prohibiting the use of mammalian protein in ruminant
feeds as follows: ``Any feed that is, or that contains any prohibited
material originating from a mammal (with exceptions) shall not be fed
to a ruminant'' (Ref 12). The ban provided exceptions for milk, blood,
gelatin, and protein derived solely from porcine or equine sources.
Canadian feed regulations also prohibit the use of plate waste and
poultry litter in ruminant feed.
The feed ban includes requirements for labeling and recordkeeping.
Feed manufacturers, renderers, retailers, and livestock producers must
document their production procedures and feeding practices to verify
their compliance with the feed ban. Feed manufacturers must keep
records regarding the composition, identity, and distribution of all
feeds for the species named in the regulations. Renderers, feed
manufacturers and farmers must take steps to prevent the material
prohibited under the feed ban from being incorporated into or
contaminating ruminant feed. To prevent the misfeeding of prohibited
material to ruminants, users of livestock feed must keep labels or
invoices from all purchased feeds containing prohibited material; these
records must be kept for 2 years.
Measures Required at Rendering Facilities
The rendering industry is important in reducing the risk of
transmitting BSE infectivity, not only because of its role in
inactivation of the BSE agent, but also because it serves as a control
point for the redirection of ruminant protein away from cattle feeds.
Since 1998, all Canadian rendering facilities have been subject to
annual inspections and permitting (Ref 11). Three types of permits are
issued, allowing companies to produce either non-prohibited material
only, prohibited material only, or both non-prohibited and prohibited
material (Ref 11). Permitting requires implementation of manufacturing
controls (such as Good Manufacturing Practices and a risk-based Hazard
Analysis and Critical Control Point (HACCP) plan, recordkeeping (for
both production and distribution) and labeling requirements (i.e., ``Do
not feed to cattle, sheep, deer or other ruminants'' on labels and
invoices for all prohibited material) directed at preventing cross-
contamination or misfeeding.
Measures to Prevent Contamination of Feed
As mentioned earlier, renderers, feed manufacturers, and farmers
must take steps to prevent material prohibited under the feed ban from
being incorporated into or contaminating ruminant feed. Such
incorporation or contamination can be prevented by having dedicated
processing lines or facilities that use only prohibited or non-
prohibited material. If a facility handles both prohibited and non-
prohibited material, procedures must be established and maintained to
conduct flushing and/or clean-out between batches of product to prevent
cross-contamination.
The feed industry in Canada has also taken a number of aggressive
steps to comply with measures in the feed ban designed to reduce the
risk of contamination of feed for cattle with prohibited material.
Recently both the United States and Canada reviewed the changes made to
industry procedures and governmental inspectional oversight. (Ref 11
and 12). These reviews demonstrated, for example, that the Canadian
rendering industry has moved toward establishment of dedicated
facilities or dedicated processing lines within rendering facilities
(Ref 11 and 12). Of the 29 rendering facilities in Canada, 6 handle
both prohibited and non-prohibited material, compared to 13 that
initially handled both types of material. Of the six, four use
dedicated processing lines (Ref 12). According to CFIA's reports, the
feed manufacturing industry has also moved toward dedicated facilities.
According to the most recent review (March 2005), 94 (17%) of the 550
commercial feed mills in Canada handled prohibited material and also
manufactured feeds for ruminants, compared to 120 (22%) in 2002-2003
(Ref 12). These actions, in addition to the labeling and recordkeeping
requirements for all products containing prohibited material, decrease
the likelihood of contamination of ruminant feeds with prohibited
material.
[[Page 1107]]
Inspections and Compliance
Following establishment of the feed ban in 1997, CFIA broadened its
communications with the affected industries and implemented an
inspection program. This program was introduced in phases. From 1997-
2000, inspection activities focused on integrating the feed ban's
requirements into standard industry practices. For example, starting in
1998, rendering facilities were required to pass an annual inspection
in order to renew their permits to operate. In 2000 and 2001, CFIA
modified its compliance programs by increasing the frequency of
inspections of commercial feed mills from once every 3 years to every
year and by continuing the annual inspection and permitting of all
rendering facilities. Since 2002, CFIA has been conducting annual
inspections of all rendering and commercial feed mill facilities and
some ruminant feeders and retail feed distributors.
Recent Regulatory Amendments in Canada
In June 2006, CFIA issued amendments to the feed ban regulations in
Canada to enhance the feed ban in that country. Those amendments
require, among other things, the removal of potentially BSE-infective
tissues (specified risk materials, or SRMs) from all animal feeds, pet
food, and fertilizer. The amendments will not be effective until July
12, 2007, and, therefore, they are not included in this discussion.
Date of Effective Enforcement of Ruminant-to-Ruminant Feed Ban in
Canada
For the purposes of this proposed rule, we have determined a date
we consider to be the date of effective enforcement of ruminant-to-
ruminant feed ban in Canada, the only country currently recognized by
APHIS as a BSE minimal-risk region. Although the regulations
establishing the feed ban in Canada came into force upon their
publication in August 1997, full implementation and effective
enforcement was a gradual process. In determining a date when the feed
ban could be considered to be effectively enforced, we carefully
considered information drawn from the epidemiological investigations to
date and the reports noted above under the heading ``Feed Ban in
Canada.''
From the outset, CFIA recognized that a phase-in period would be
required before prohibited materials that were already in feed channels
would be exhausted and labeling and recordkeeping requirements would be
met. CFIA estimated that it would take approximately 30 days for feed
mills and retailers to use up and distribute existing supplies of
``old'' product; 60 days to add a caution statement to the necessary
documents; and 60 days for farms to use up their stores of ``old''
product (Ref 13). All retailers were given until September 3, 1997, to
use or distribute feed already produced. Feed manufacturers received a
grace period until October 3, 1997, to comply with labeling
requirements. Livestock producers were given a grace period until
October 3, 1997, to use the feed manufactured and purchased prior to
the feed ban. However, feed tracing associated with one of the Canadian
BSE cases suggested that feed produced prior to implementation of the
feed ban may have been available at feed stores beyond the grace
period. Therefore, a period of 6 months has been estimated for
practical implementation of the feed ban, making February 1998 a more
reasonable baseline from which to assess effective implementation (Ref
13).
However, based on our evaluation of the situation in Canada, we
believe that the feed ban there achieved full efficacy only at some
time after the practical implementation period. We believe that
additional time was necessary to allow for most old feed to cycle
through and out of the system. To evaluate the duration of this time
frame in Canada, we considered on-farm feeding practices in that
country. Most cattle producers in Canada do not hold extensive long-
term inventories of purchased feeds on their farms due to limited
storage space and expense. These practices make it unlikely that feeds
containing prohibited material were available for more than a few
months after practical implementation of the feed ban. The possible
exception is mineral mixes produced before the feed ban that may have
contained ruminant MBM. Mineral mixes are typically fed daily but in
very small quantities (grams rather than pounds per day) (Ref 14 and
15) and may be stored on the farms for longer periods of time. We
believe, however, that they are not likely to have been purchased for
use for periods longer than a year.
Both beef and dairy cattle production can be considered to have an
annual, or 12-month, calving cycle, in that a cow on a beef or dairy
farm will generally give birth once a year. Calving occurs among cows
year-round on Canada's dairy farms to ensure a constant supply of fluid
milk. Most dairy farms in Canada produce their own forage and grains
(Ref 16). Forages produced seasonally are stored on the farm to provide
the basis for the diet fed to dairy cattle of all ages and production
stages. Protein supplements and specialty feeds, such as mixed calf
feeds, are typically purchased commercially in quantities to be fed out
over a few months, because these supplemental feeds are expensive to
purchase, costly to store, and may deteriorate with time. Typically,
purchased feeds are available throughout the year with only moderate
price variations, so there is little incentive for producers to
maintain large on-farm inventories (Ref 17). The Canadian beef
production cycle is very seasonal in that cows are bred so that calving
occurs at the same time of year, generally in the spring (Ref 16).
Producers are not likely to carry extensive feed inventories from
season to season (Ref 16 and 18). Therefore, in both Canadian dairy and
beef production, a 12-month period would generally be sufficient to
allow purchased feed products that may contain MBM to be completely
used.
We arrived at our determination that the Canadian feed ban was
fully implemented and effectively enforced as of March 1, 1999, by
adding this additional 12-month period to the 6-month ``practical
implementation period'' following the August 1997 establishment of the
feed ban in Canada. We believe that prohibiting the importation of
bovines from Canada that were born before March 1, 1999, would provide
an appropriate additional mitigation to what is an already extremely
low risk of the introduction of BSE from Canada.
Assessment of Risk From Cattle of Canadian Origin
As noted above, Canada is currently the only country recognized by
APHIS as a BSE minimal-risk region. In conjunction with this
rulemaking, we have conducted an assessment that both quantitatively
and qualitatively addresses the potential BSE risk of importing live
bovines from Canada.
Arriving at an estimation of risk begins with laying out the risk
pathway (a series of occurrences or steps necessary for disease to
enter and become established). Next, the likelihood of each of the
multiple steps must be estimated. In our risk assessment, although we
analyze the likelihood of each individual step in the process
occurring, we interpret its significance in the context of the entire
process.
BSE Prevalence in Canada
One of the conditions for being recognized by APHIS as a BSE
minimal-risk region is that the region have in
[[Page 1108]]
place and maintain risk mitigation measures adequate to prevent
widespread exposure and/or establishment of the disease. In classifying
Canada as a BSE minimal-risk region in our January 2005 final rule, we
determined that such mitigation measures are in place and are
maintained in Canada. For the risk assessment for this proposed rule,
we have made a quantitative estimate of the prevalence of BSE among
Canadian cattle, using data available to us through August 15, 2006,
and have used this estimate as part of our quantification of the risk
of transmission of BSE to U.S. livestock as a result of this rule. Our
estimate indicates a very low level of BSE prevalence in Canada.
From the time of detection of the first native case of BSE in
Canada in 2003, nine cases of Canadian-born BSE-infected cattle have
been identified, as follows:
In May 2003, BSE was confirmed in a cow in the Province of
Alberta. The cow was determined to have been born in March 1997.
In December 2003, BSE was confirmed in a cow of Canadian
origin in Washington State. The cow was determined to have been born in
April 1997.
In January 2005, BSE was confirmed in two cows in the
Province of Alberta. One of the cows was determined to have been born
in October 1996. The other cow was determined to have been born in
March 1998.
In January 2006, BSE was confirmed in a cow in the
Province of Alberta. The cow was determined to have been born in April
2000.
In April 2006, BSE was confirmed in a cow in the Province
of British Columbia. The cow was determined to have been born in April
2000.
In June 2006, BSE (of a different phenotype than that in
the other diagnoses) was confirmed in a cow in the Province of
Manitoba. The cow was determined to have been born in approximately
1991.
In July 2006, BSE was confirmed in a cow in the Province
of Alberta. The cow was determined to have been born in April 2002.
In August 2006, BSE was confirmed in a cow in the Province
of Alberta, which, according to preliminary information available to
APHIS, was born in 1996.
Of the nine Canadian-born cows diagnosed with BSE, three were born
after March 1, 1999, the date we are proposing as the date of effective
enforcement of a ruminant-to-ruminant feed ban in Canada. This is not
unexpected, nor do we consider such diagnoses in any way to undercut
our conclusion that March 1, 1999, can be considered the date of
effective enforcement of the feed ban in Canada. Experience worldwide
has demonstrated that, even in countries with an effective feed ban in
place, BSE has occurred in cattle born after a feed ban was
implemented. No regulatory effort can ensure 100 percent compliance.
Isolated incidents, such as feed made from non-prohibited material
being contaminated with prohibited material during processing, can
occur due to human error. However, such isolated incidents are not
epidemiologically significant and do not contribute to further spread
of BSE, especially when considered in light of the entire risk pathway
and its attendant risk mitigations.
Based on our determination that Canada has had in place since March
1, 1999, an effectively enforced feed ban that continues at a robust
level, and the demonstrated effectiveness of a feed ban in reducing the
likelihood of BSE transmission, our expectation is that the prevalence
of BSE in Canada will continue to decline from its present minimal
level. As we discuss in our risk assessment for this rulemaking, such a
decline would decrease any possibility of BSE being introduced into the
United States by Canadian cattle, and therefore decrease the negligible
risk of the spread of BSE to U.S. cattle.
However, in our risk assessment, we also evaluated scenarios that
are less likely than the one we expect, including no decrease in BSE
prevalence in Canada over the next 20 years. Even using this extremely
unlikely scenario, which would mean the continued detection of
additional BSE--infected Canadian cattle born after March 1, 1999, our
conclusion is that the BSE risk to U.S. livestock due to implementation
of this proposed rule would be negligible.
We used a mathematical model to approximate the proportion of BSE--
infected, but not necessarily clinically diseased, cattle in Canada.
Our mathematical model is discussed in detail in the risk assessment we
conducted in conjunction with this proposed rule. Using this
mathematical model, we estimated that the prevalence of BSE in Canada,
based on data available as of August 15, 2006, is 6.8 animals per every
10 million adult cattle. (The current adult cattle population in Canada
is approximately 5.9 million animals.) In comparison, the same model
was recently used to estimate the prevalence of BSE in the United
States. The findings of that analysis supported a conclusion that BSE
prevalence in the United States is below 1 case per million adult
cattle, with a most likely estimate for the United States of 1 infected
animal per 10 million adult cattle (Ref 19).\2\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\2\ The current adult cattle population in the United States is
approximately 42 million animals.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Our estimate of BSE prevalence in Canada incorporates the United
Kingdom data on the effectiveness of a feed ban. However, it should be
noted that the actual prevalence of BSE in Canada is most probably
lower than our estimate. This is because, where we needed to
incorporate simplifying assumptions in our calculations, due to data
uncertainty or the constraints of the mathematical model itself, we
chose assumptions that, if anything, erred on the side of assuming
greater prevalence.
An example of this is the data we used related to the diagnosis of
BSE in a cow of Canadian origin in Washington State in December 2003.
Although we incorporated that case into the number of Canadian-born
cattle that have been diagnosed with BSE--which increased the estimate
of overall BSE prevalence in Canada--we did not numerically increase
the total Canadian cattle population by including in that country's
number of cattle those animals of Canadian origin that had been
imported into the United States and that tested negative for BSE. If
those animals had been included in the figure used for the total
Canadian cattle population, the estimated BSE prevalence would have
been reduced. Additionally, we did not include in our calculations cows
that were tested in Canada with negative results as part of
investigations conducted after the diagnosis of BSE in cows of Canadian
origin.
Projected Future Prevalence Rates in Canada
Our qualitative conclusion is that, due to the feed ban in Canada,
BSE prevalence rates will progressively decline in that country over
the next 20 years. However, because we could not provide an accurate
prediction for the rate at which we would expect prevalence to
decrease, we did not attempt to numerically represent the actual
expected annual release over the 20 years of our analysis. For example,
it would be guesswork to attempt to estimate exactly what the
prevalence of BSE in Canada will be in the year 2012 and to use that
figure in our mathematical model, even though, qualitatively, we
consider it very likely that the prevalence will be less than it was in
August 2006. Therefore, when creating a scenario for our quantitative
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calculations, we assume that the prevalence of BSE in Canada will
remain the same for each of the next 20 years as it was in August 2006.
BSE Risk From Live Bovines From Minimal-Risk Regions
BSE prevalence, however, is just one factor that must be considered
when determining the risk of BSE transmission. Requiring, as this rule
would do, that live bovines imported into the United States from a BSE
minimal-risk region be born after the date of effective enforcement of
a feed ban, would mitigate the risk of exposure of U.S. livestock to
the BSE agent. As discussed above, such a requirement would be
consistent with the OIE recommendation to allow trade in live cattle
from regions that have reported BSE if such regions have an effective
feed ban in place.
Moreover and importantly, however, if an infected bovine from a BSE
minimal-risk region were to be imported into the United States, for
that bovine to transmit infection to a U.S. cow, each in a series of
additional mitigations against such transmission would have to fail or
be breached. The effect of such mitigations, discussed in greater
detail in our risk assessment, was also discussed in the APHIS risk
assessment that was conducted for our January 2005 final rule
establishing the category of BSE minimal-risk regions (Ref 9). In the
risk assessment for this rulemaking, we assess with regard to imports
of live bovines from Canada (currently the only region recognized by
APHIS as a BSE minimal-risk region), using updated data and
assumptions, the likelihood of that series of mitigations failing if
this proposed rule were implemented.
The mitigations that would have to be breached include:
Slaughter controls and dead animal disposal;
Rendering inactivation;
Feed manufacturing and use controls;
Biologic limitations to susceptibility.
As discussed in our risk assessments, these mitigations work in a
series and are multiplicative in their risk-reduction effects; i.e.,
however small the chances that BSE infected material would make it past
the first mitigation, the likelihood of the material eventually
infecting a U.S. animal would shrink to a significantly smaller level
with each subsequent mitigation. The risk assessment for this proposed
rule simulated the impact of these mitigations on the likelihood of
exposure, establishment, and spread of BSE infectivity in the United
States if this proposed rule were to be implemented, and quantified
those impacts where possible.
Both qualitative and quantitative methods were used in the exposure
assessment to evaluate the likelihood of exposing susceptible animals,
given the release of infectivity via imported bovines. The most likely
scenario of the release assessment included the assumption that the
prevalence of BSE in the standing adult cattle population in Canada
will continuously decrease. As explained earlier, this expected
decrease could not be incorporated into the quantitative methods and,
therefore, the possible exposures were assessed qualitatively. This
qualitative exposure assessment of the most likely scenario of the
release assessment--decreasing Canadian prevalence--indicates that the
likelihood of BSE exposure and establishment in the U.S. cattle
population as a consequence of infectivity in the United States
introduced via imports from Canada is negligible.
Even though we concluded that it is most likely that Canadian
prevalence will decrease, we also considered the less likely scenarios
and quantitatively analyzed the impact of an assumed constant
prevalence in Canada to simulate potential BSE exposure in U.S. cattle.
The quantitative model used in the exposure assessment and its results
include the much less likely scenario that Canadian BSE prevalence
remains constant through 2026. Because we believe this situation is
much less likely to occur, we have concluded that prevalence and
release and, therefore, the number of infected animals occurring in the
United States would be lower than the values derived from the
quantitative exposure model.
Using a base-case assumption that the August 2006 BSE prevalence
rate in Canada remains the same over the next 20 years, our
quantitative model predicts the importation of a total of approximately
19 infected bovines over that period under the provisions of this
proposed rule. (As discussed above, however, as a result of
implementation of an effective feed ban, we expect the already low
prevalence in Canada to decline over time.) The model further predicts
that, if 19 infected bovines were imported over a 20-year period,
approximately 2 U.S. animals would consequently be infected during that
period due to such importations. (For purposes of comparison, the
standing U.S. cattle population in 2006 is approximately 97 million
animals, which would be multiplied over a 20-year period.)
Of the total number of infected animals predicted over the next 20
years (i.e., the total of infected imported animals and infected U.S.
cattle), only a small fraction (numerically, fewer than 1 (0.67)) would
live long enough to develop clinical signs and be likely to contain
significant levels of infectivity, due to the lengthy incubation period
for BSE and the fact that most U.S. cattle are slaughtered before
reaching the age when infectivity is manifested in clinical signs. Even
assuming the unlikely event of no decline in the Canadian BSE
prevalence rate over the next 20 years, the predicted results from our
risk assessment indicate that, given the nature of BSE and the
mitigations in place that prevent its transmission in the United
States, it is highly unlikely that BSE would become established in the
United States due to implementation of this proposed rule. And, as
noted, we believe the quantitative component of our risk assessment
overestimates the likely number of infected animals that would be
present in the United States over the next 20 years as a result of
importing cattle from Canada under the provisions of this proposed
rule.
Sensitivity Analysis to Account for Uncertain Parameters
In reaching the conclusions discussed above, we used what we
consider base-case conditions. In order to account for uncertainty,
however, and to allow for possible divergence from those expected base
case conditions, we have also done ``sensitivity analyses.''
Sensitivity analysis evaluates the degree to which changes in the data
used in a model affect the model's results. Even assuming a combination
of pessimistic values (i.e., those generating greater risk than base-
case conditions) for every model parameter used, we concluded that
factors mitigating BSE risk in the United States (e.g., at slaughter,
during rendering, regarding feed manufacturing and use, and biological
factors (the effect of an animal's age on its BSE susceptibility))
would prevent BSE amplification in the United States, and that any
imported infectivity would disappear from the U.S. cattle population. A
detailed discussion of the sensitivity analyses is contained in our
risk assessment.
Proposed Regulatory Changes Regarding Live Bovines
Based on the information available to us, we believe that allowing
the importation from a BSE minimal-risk region of live bovines born on
or after the date of effective enforcement of a ruminant-to-ruminant
feed ban in the region of export would continue to
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protect against the introduction and spread of BSE in the United
States, while removing unnecessary restrictions on the importation of
such animals, and are proposing to amend Sec. 93.436(a) of the
regulations to allow such importations. The regulations would specify
March 1, 1999, as the date of the effective enforcement a ruminant-to-
ruminant feed ban in Canada, currently the only country recognized by
APHIS as a BSE minimal-risk region.
We would remove the requirement in Sec. 93.436(a)(1) of the
current regulations that live bovines imported from BSE minimal-risk
regions be less than 30 months of age when imported into the United
States and when slaughtered. We would additionally remove the
requirement in Sec. 93.436(a)(1) and (b)(1) that such bovines not be
pregnant when imported into the United States and the provisions in
Sec. 93.436 that limit importation to those bovines imported either
for immediate slaughter or for movement to a feedlot and then to
slaughter.
Identification and Movement of Live Bovines From BSE Minimal-Risk
Regions
Section 93.436 also includes movement restrictions to help ensure
that all bovines imported from BSE minimal-risk regions are slaughtered
in the United States before they are 30 months of age. If we remove the
requirement that the bovines be less than 30 months of age when
slaughtered, certain of the movement restrictions in Sec. 93.436 would
no longer be necessary. We are proposing to remove those restrictions
that would be unnecessary, as discussed below.
Permanent Identification of Bovines Moving to Other Than Immediate
Slaughter
Current Sec. 93.436(b)(3) requires that bovines imported from a
BSE minimal-risk region for other than immediate slaughter (i.e., for
movement to a feedlot in the United States and then to slaughter) be
permanently and humanely identified before arrival at the port of entry
with a distinct and legible mark identifying the exporting country. The
permanent identification required by the current regulations can be
either a freeze brand, a hot iron brand, or some other method of
identification applied to each animal's right hip. In this proposal, we
retain the requirement that bovines imported from a BSE minimal-risk
region for other than immediate slaughter be permanently marked to
identify the exporting country. In the event a bovine from a BSE
minimal-risk region were to be diagnosed in the United States with BSE,
such marking would expedite initial identification of the animal's
country of export. Traceback to the animal's premises of origin would
then be facilitated by the animal's unique individual identification,
which is currently required under Sec. 93.436(b)(4) and which would
continue to be required under the provisions of this proposed rule.
However, we are proposing to specify an alternative to the requirement
that the animal be marked on the right hip by freeze brand, hot iron,
or some other method. (The current regulations allow in a general way
for alternative means of identification with the Administrator's
approval, but don't include any specifications for such alternative
means of identification.)
We are proposing to specify in Sec. 93.436(b)(2) that, in addition
to the options for permanent identification already included there, the
permanent identification of bovines imported from BSE minimal-risk
regions can be in the form of a tattoo on the inside of one ear of each
animal that identifies the exporting country. Bovines imported from
Canada that are identified by tattoo would have to be identified with
the letters ``CAN''.
We proposed in our November 2003 proposed rule to limit the
country-of-export permanent identification to a tattoo. However,
comments from the public on that proposed rule expressed concern that
tattoos might become illegible over time, could not be effectively
monitored without restraining the animal, might become obscured by dirt
and hair, and are not readily visible--particularly on animals with
dark-skinned ears. In our January 2005 final rule, we agreed that
tattoos might not provide readily visible identification of the country
of origin of bovines, and set forth instead the requirement described
above.
We continue to believe that tattoos might not be the most readily
visible means of identification of live animals in groups of animals.
However, as noted above, the purpose of requiring permanent
identification of the animal's country of export in this proposed rule
is to expedite initial identification of an animal's country of export
in the event the animal is diagnosed with BSE. Such a diagnosis cannot
be confirmed on a live animal. Once the animal has been euthanized or
has otherwise died, an ear tattoo would be an effective means of
identification.
Sealing of Means of Conveyance and Movement as a Group; Bovines
Imported for Movement to a Feedlot
We are proposing to remove the requirement in Sec. 93.436(b)(6)
that live bovines imported from a BSE minimal-risk region for feeding
and then slaughter be imported in a means of conveyance sealed in the
region of origin with seals of the national government of the region
origin, and be moved directly from the port of entry as a group to a
feedlot identified on the APHIS movement documentation currently
required for such animals. Under this proposed rule, the importation of
bovines from a BSE minimal-risk region would not be dependent on
whether the animals are less than 30 months of age when imported and
when slaughtered, but, rather, would be governed by whether the animals
were born on or after the date of effective enforcement of a ruminant-
to-ruminant feed ban in the exporting region. Once imported, the
bovines would be handled in the same way as U.S. bovines. Therefore, we
do not believe it would be necessary to retain the provisions in the
regulations that were designed to help ensure that bovines from a BSE
minimal-risk region are moved directly to a feedlot and are handled as
an easily identifiable group.
Sealing of Means of Conveyance and Movement as a Group; Bovines
Imported for Immediate Slaughter
We are also proposing to remove the requirement in Sec.
93.436(a)(6) that the bovines imported from BSE minimal-risk regions
for immediate slaughter be slaughtered as a group. However, we would
continue to require that bovines from Canada imported for immediate
slaughter be moved directly as a group from the port of entry in a
sealed means of conveyance. We would require that the means of
conveyanc