Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Fuel Efficiency Standards for Medium- and Heavy-Duty Engines and Vehicles-Phase 2, 40137-40765 [2015-15500]
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Vol. 80
Monday,
No. 133
July 13, 2015
Book 2 of 3 Books
Pages 40137–40766
Part II
Environmental Protection Agency
40 CFR Parts 9, 22, 85, et al.
Department of Transportation
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National Highway Traffic Safety Administration
49 CFR Parts 512, 523, 534, et al.
Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Fuel Efficiency Standards for Mediumand Heavy-Duty Engines and Vehicles—Phase 2; Proposed Rule
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Federal Register / Vol. 80, No. 133 / Monday, July 13, 2015 / Proposed Rules
ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION
AGENCY
40 CFR Parts 9, 22, 85, 86, 600, 1033,
1036, 1037, 1039, 1042, 1043, 1065,
1066, and 1068
DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION
National Highway Traffic Safety
Administration
49 CFR Parts 512, 523, 534, 535, 537,
and 538
[EPA–HQ–OAR–2014–0827; NHTSA–2014–
0132; FRL–9927–21–OAR]
RIN 2060–AS16; RIN 2127–AL52
Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Fuel
Efficiency Standards for Medium- and
Heavy-Duty Engines and Vehicles—
Phase 2
Environmental Protection
Agency (EPA) and Department of
Transportation (DOT) National Highway
Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA)
ACTION: Proposed rule.
AGENCY:
EPA and NHTSA, on behalf of
the Department of Transportation, are
each proposing rules to establish a
comprehensive Phase 2 Heavy-Duty
(HD) National Program that will reduce
greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and
fuel consumption for new on-road
heavy-duty vehicles. This technologyadvancing program would phase in over
the long-term, beginning in the 2018
model year and culminating in
standards for model year 2027,
responding to the President’s directive
on February 18, 2014, to develop new
standards that will take us well into the
next decade. NHTSA’s proposed fuel
consumption standards and EPA’s
proposed carbon dioxide (CO2) emission
standards are tailored to each of four
regulatory categories of heavy-duty
vehicles: Combination tractors; trailers
used in combination with those tractors;
heavy-duty pickup trucks and vans; and
vocational vehicles. The proposal also
includes separate standards for the
engines that power combination tractors
and vocational vehicles. Certain
proposed requirements for control of
GHG emissions are exclusive to EPA
programs. These include EPA’s
proposed hydrofluorocarbon standards
to control leakage from air conditioning
systems in vocational vehicles, and
EPA’s proposed nitrous oxide (N2O) and
methane (CH4) standards for heavy-duty
engines. Additionally, NHTSA is
addressing misalignment in the Phase 1
standards between EPA and NHTSA to
ensure there are no differences in
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SUMMARY:
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compliance standards between the
agencies. In an effort to promote
efficiency, the agencies are also
proposing to amend their rules to
modify reporting requirements, such as
the method by which manufacturers
submit pre-model, mid-model, and
supplemental reports. EPA’s proposed
HD Phase 2 GHG emission standards are
authorized under the Clean Air Act and
NHTSA’s proposed HD Phase 2 fuel
consumption standards authorized
under the Energy Independence and
Security Act of 2007. These standards
would begin with model year 2018 for
trailers under EPA standards and 2021
for all of the other heavy-duty vehicle
and engine categories. The agencies
estimate that the combined standards
would reduce CO2 emissions by
approximately 1 billion metric tons and
save 1.8 billion barrels of oil over the
life of vehicles and engines sold during
the Phase 2 program, providing over
$200 billion in net societal benefits. As
noted, the proposal also includes certain
EPA-specific provisions relating to
control of emissions of pollutants other
than GHGs. EPA is seeking comment on
non-GHG emission standards relating to
the use of auxiliary power units
installed in tractors. In addition, EPA is
proposing to clarify the classification of
natural gas engines and other gaseousfueled heavy-duty engines, and is
proposing closed crankcase standards
for emissions of all pollutants from
natural gas heavy-duty engines. EPA is
also proposing technical amendments to
EPA rules that apply to emissions of
non-GHG pollutants from light-duty
motor vehicles, marine diesel engines,
and other nonroad engines and
equipment. Finally, EPA is proposing to
require that rebuilt engines installed in
new incomplete vehicles meet the
emission standards applicable in the
year of assembly, including all
applicable standards for criteria
pollutants.
DATES: Comments on all aspects of this
proposal must be received on or before
September 11, 2015. Under the
Paperwork Reduction Act (PRA),
comments on the information collection
provisions are best assured of
consideration if the Office of
Management and Budget (OMB)
receives a copy of your comments on or
before August 12, 2015.
EPA and NHTSA will announce the
public hearing dates and locations for
this proposal in a supplemental Federal
Register document.
ADDRESSES: Submit your comments,
identified by Docket ID No. EPA–HQ–
OAR–2014–0827 (for EPA’s docket) and
NHTSA–2014–0132 (for NHTSA’s
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docket) by one of the following
methods:
• Online: www.regulations.gov:
Follow the on-line instructions for
submitting comments.
• Email: a-and-r-docket@epa.gov.
• Mail:
EPA: Air and Radiation Docket and
Information Center, Environmental
Protection Agency, Mail code: 28221T,
1200 Pennsylvania Ave. NW.,
Washington, DC 20460.
NHTSA: Docket Management Facility,
M–30, U.S. Department of
Transportation, West Building, Ground
Floor, Rm. W12–140, 1200 New Jersey
Avenue SE., Washington, DC 20590.
• Hand Delivery:
EPA: EPA Docket Center, EPA WJC
West Building, Room 3334, 1301
Constitution Ave. NW., Washington, DC
20460. Such deliveries are only
accepted during the Docket’s normal
hours of operation, and special
arrangements should be made for
deliveries of boxed information.
NHTSA: West Building, Ground
Floor, Rm. W12–140, 1200 New Jersey
Avenue SE., Washington, DC 20590,
between 9 a.m. and 4 p.m. Eastern Time,
Monday through Friday, except Federal
holidays.
Instructions: EPA and NHTSA have
established dockets for this action under
Direct your comments to Docket ID No.
EPA–HQ–OAR–2014–0827 and/or
NHTSA–2014–0132, respectively. See
the SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION section
on ‘‘Public Participation’’ for more
information about submitting written
comments.
Docket: All documents in the docket
are listed on the www.regulations.gov
Web site. Although listed in the index,
some information is not publicly
available, e.g., confidential business
information or other information whose
disclosure is restricted by statute.
Certain other material, such as
copyrighted material, is not placed on
the Internet and will be publicly
available only in hard copy form.
Publicly available docket materials are
available either electronically through
www.regulations.gov or in hard copy at
the following locations:
EPA: Air and Radiation Docket and
Information Center, EPA Docket Center,
EPA/DC, EPA WJC West Building, 1301
Constitution Ave. NW., Room 3334,
Washington, DC. The Public Reading
Room is open from 8:30 a.m. to 4:30
p.m., Monday through Friday, excluding
legal holidays. The telephone number
for the Public Reading Room is (202)
566–1744, and the telephone number for
the Air Docket is (202) 566–1742.
NHTSA: Docket Management Facility,
M–30, U.S. Department of
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Transportation, West Building, Ground
Floor, Rm. W12–140, 1200 New Jersey
Avenue SE., Washington, DC 20590.
The telephone number for the docket
management facility is (202) 366–9324.
The docket management facility is open
between 9 a.m. and 5 p.m. Eastern Time,
Monday through Friday, except Federal
holidays.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT:
EPA: For hearing information or to
register, please contact: JoNell Iffland,
Office of Transportation and Air
Quality, Assessment and Standards
Division (ASD), Environmental
Protection Agency, 2000 Traverwood
Drive, Ann Arbor, MI 48105; Telephone
number: (734) 214–4454; Fax number:
(734) 214–4816; Email address:
iffland.jonell@epa.gov. For all other
information related to the rule, please
contact: Tad Wysor, Office of
Transportation and Air Quality,
Assessment and Standards Division
(ASD), Environmental Protection
Agency, 2000 Traverwood Drive, Ann
Arbor, MI 48105; telephone number:
(734) 214–4332; email address:
wysor.tad@epa.gov.
NHTSA: Ryan Hagen or Analiese
Marchesseault, Office of Chief Counsel,
National Highway Traffic Safety
Administration, 1200 New Jersey
Avenue SE., Washington, DC 20590.
Telephone: (202) 366–2992;
ryan.hagen@dot.gov or
analiese.marchesseault@dot.gov.
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION:
A. Does this action apply to me?
This proposed action would affect
companies that manufacture, sell, or
NAICS code a
Category
Industry .....................................................
336111
336112
333618
336120
336212
541514
811112
811198
336111
336112
422720
454312
541514
541690
811198
Industry .....................................................
Industry .....................................................
40139
import into the United States new
heavy-duty engines and new Class 2b
through 8 trucks, including combination
tractors, all types of buses, vocational
vehicles including municipal,
commercial, recreational vehicles, and
commercial trailers as well as 3⁄4-ton
and 1-ton pickup trucks and vans. The
heavy-duty category incorporates all
motor vehicles with a gross vehicle
weight rating of 8,500 lbs or greater, and
the engines that power them, except for
medium-duty passenger vehicles
already covered by the greenhouse gas
standards and corporate average fuel
economy standards issued for light-duty
model year 2017–2025 vehicles.
Proposed regulated categories and
entities include the following:
Examples of potentially affected entities
Motor Vehicle Manufacturers, Engine Manufacturers, Truck Manufacturers, Truck
Trailer Manufacturers.
Commercial Importers of Vehicles and Vehicle Components.
Alternative Fuel Vehicle Converters.
Note:a North American Industry Classification System (NAICS).
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This table is not intended to be
exhaustive, but rather provides a guide
for readers regarding entities likely
covered by these rules. This table lists
the types of entities that the agencies are
aware may be regulated by this action.
Other types of entities not listed in the
table could also be regulated. To
determine whether your activities are
regulated by this action, you should
carefully examine the applicability
criteria in the referenced regulations.
You may direct questions regarding the
applicability of this action to the
persons listed in the preceding FOR
FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT section.
B. Public Participation
EPA and NHTSA request comment on
all aspects of this joint proposed rule.
This section describes how you can
participate in this process.
(1) How do I prepare and submit
comments?
In this joint proposal, there are many
issues common to both EPA’s and
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NHTSA’s proposals. For the
convenience of all parties, comments
submitted to the EPA docket will be
considered comments submitted to the
NHTSA docket, and vice versa. An
exception is that comments submitted to
the NHTSA docket on NHTSA’s Draft
Environmental Impact Statement (EIS)
will not be considered submitted to the
EPA docket. Therefore, the public only
needs to submit comments to either one
of the two agency dockets, although
they may submit comments to both if
they so choose. Comments that are
submitted for consideration by one
agency should be identified as such, and
comments that are submitted for
consideration by both agencies should
be identified as such. Absent such
identification, each agency will exercise
its best judgment to determine whether
a comment is submitted on its proposal.
Further instructions for submitting
comments to either EPA or NHTSA
docket are described below.
EPA: Direct your comments to Docket
ID No. EPA–HQ–OAR–2014–0827.
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EPA’s policy is that all comments
received will be included in the public
docket without change and may be
made available online at
www.regulations.gov, including any
personal information provided, unless
the comment includes information
claimed to be Confidential Business
Information (CBI) or other information
whose disclosure is restricted by statute.
Do not submit information that you
consider to be CBI or otherwise
protected through www.regulations.gov
or email. The www.regulations.gov Web
site is an ‘‘anonymous access’’ system,
which means EPA will not know your
identity or contact information unless
you provide it in the body of your
comment. If you send an email
comment directly to EPA without going
through www.regulations.gov your email
address will be automatically captured
and included as part of the comment
that is placed in the public docket and
made available on the Internet. If you
submit an electronic comment, EPA
recommends that you include your
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name and other contact information in
the body of your comment and with any
disk or CD–ROM you submit. If EPA
cannot read your comment due to
technical difficulties and cannot contact
you for clarification, EPA may not be
able to consider your comment.
Electronic files should avoid the use of
special characters, any form of
encryption, and be free of any defects or
viruses. For additional information
about EPA’s public docket visit the EPA
Docket Center homepage at https://
www.epa.gov/epahome/dockets.htm.
NHTSA: Your comments must be
written and in English. To ensure that
your comments are correctly filed in the
Docket, please include the Docket
number NHTSA–2014–0132 in your
comments. Your comments must not be
more than 15 pages long.1 NHTSA
established this limit to encourage you
to write your primary comments in a
concise fashion. However, you may
attach necessary additional documents
to your comments, and there is no limit
on the length of the attachments. If you
are submitting comments electronically
as a PDF (Adobe) file, we ask that the
documents submitted be scanned using
the Optical Character Recognition (OCR)
process, thus allowing the agencies to
search and copy certain portions of your
submissions.2 Please note that pursuant
to the Data Quality Act, in order for the
substantive data to be relied upon and
used by the agency, it must meet the
information quality standards set forth
in the OMB and Department of
Transportation (DOT) Data Quality Act
guidelines. Accordingly, we encourage
you to consult the guidelines in
preparing your comments. OMB’s
guidelines may be accessed at https://
www.whitehouse.gov/omb/fedreg/
reproducible.html. DOT’s guidelines
may be accessed at https://www.dot.gov/
dataquality.htm.
(2) Tips for Preparing Your Comments
When submitting comments, please
remember to:
• Identify the rulemaking by docket
number and other identifying
information (subject heading, Federal
Register date and page number).
• Explain why you agree or disagree,
suggest alternatives, and substitute
language for your requested changes.
• Describe any assumptions and
provide any technical information and/
or data that you used.
• If you estimate potential costs or
burdens, explain how you arrived at
1 See
49 CFR 553.21.
character recognition (OCR) is the
process of converting an image of text, such as a
scanned paper document or electronic fax file, into
computer-editable text.
2 Optical
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your estimate in sufficient detail to
allow for it to be reproduced.
• Provide specific examples to
illustrate your concerns, and suggest
alternatives.
• Explain your views as clearly as
possible, avoiding the use of profanity
or personal threats.
• Make sure to submit your
comments by the comment period
deadline identified in the DATES section
above.
(3) How can I be sure that my comments
were received?
NHTSA: If you submit your comments
by mail and wish Docket Management
to notify you upon its receipt of your
comments, enclose a self-addressed,
stamped postcard in the envelope
containing your comments. Upon
receiving your comments, Docket
Management will return the postcard by
mail.
(4) How do I submit confidential
business information?
Any confidential business
information (CBI) submitted to one of
the agencies will also be available to the
other agency. However, as with all
public comments, any CBI information
only needs to be submitted to either one
of the agencies’ dockets and it will be
available to the other. Following are
specific instructions for submitting CBI
to either agency. If you have any
questions about CBI or the procedures
for claiming CBI, please consult the
persons identified in the FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION CONTACT section.
EPA: Do not submit CBI to EPA
through www.regulations.gov or email.
Clearly mark the part or all of the
information that you claim to be CBI.
For CBI information in a disk or CD
ROM that you mail to EPA, mark the
outside of the disk or CD ROM as CBI
and then identify electronically within
the disk or CD ROM the specific
information that is claimed as CBI.
Information not marked as CBI will be
included in the public docket without
prior notice. In addition to one complete
version of the comment that includes
information claimed as CBI, a copy of
the comment that does not contain the
information claimed as CBI must be
submitted for inclusion in the public
docket. Information so marked will not
be disclosed except in accordance with
procedures set forth in 40 CFR part 2.
NHTSA: If you wish to submit any
information under a claim of
confidentiality, you should submit three
copies of your complete submission,
including the information you claim to
be confidential business information, to
the Chief Counsel, NHTSA, at the
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address given above under FOR FURTHER
When you send a
comment containing confidential
business information, you should
include a cover letter setting forth the
information specified in our
confidential business information
regulation.3
In addition, you should submit a copy
from which you have deleted the
claimed confidential business
information to the Docket by one of the
methods set forth above.
INFORMATION CONTACT.
(5) How can I read the comments
submitted by other people?
You may read the materials placed in
the docket for this document (e.g., the
comments submitted in response to this
document by other interested persons)
at any time by going to https://
www.regulations.gov. Follow the online
instructions for accessing the dockets.
You may also read the materials at the
EPA Docket Center or NHTSA Docket
Management Facility by going to the
street addresses given above under
ADDRESSES.
(6) How do I participate in the public
hearings?
EPA and NHTSA will announce the
public hearing dates and locations for
this proposal in a supplemental Federal
Register document. At all hearings, both
agencies will accept comments on the
rulemaking, and NHTSA will also
accept comments on the EIS.
If you would like to present testimony
at the public hearings, we ask that you
notify EPA and NHTSA contact persons
listed in the FOR FURTHER INFORMATION
CONTACT section at least ten days before
the hearing. Once EPA and NHTSA
learn how many people have registered
to speak at the public hearing, we will
allocate an appropriate amount of time
to each participant. For planning
purposes, each speaker should
anticipate speaking for approximately
ten minutes, although we may need to
adjust the time for each speaker if there
is a large turnout. We suggest that you
bring copies of your statement or other
material for EPA and NHTSA panels. It
would also be helpful if you send us a
copy of your statement or other
materials before the hearing. To
accommodate as many speakers as
possible, we prefer that speakers not use
technological aids (e.g., audio-visuals,
computer slideshows). However, if you
plan to do so, you must notify the
contact persons in the FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION CONTACT section above.
You also must make arrangements to
provide your presentation or any other
3 See
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aids to EPA and NHTSA in advance of
the hearing in order to facilitate set-up.
In addition, we will reserve a block of
time for anyone else in the audience
who wants to give testimony. The
agencies will assume that comments
made at the hearings are directed to the
proposed rule unless commenters
specifically reference NHTSA’s EIS in
oral or written testimony.
The hearing will be held at a site
accessible to individuals with
disabilities. Individuals who require
accommodations such as sign language
interpreters should contact the persons
listed under FOR FURTHER INFORMATION
CONTACT section above no later than ten
days before the date of the hearing.
EPA and NHTSA will conduct the
hearing informally, and technical rules
of evidence will not apply. We will
arrange for a written transcript of the
hearing and keep the official record of
the hearing open for 30 days to allow
you to submit supplementary
information. You may make
arrangements for copies of the transcript
directly with the court reporter.
C. Did EPA conduct a peer review
before issuing this notice?
This regulatory action is supported by
influential scientific information.
Therefore, EPA conducted a peer review
consistent with OMB’s Final
Information Quality Bulletin for Peer
Review. As described in Section II.C.3,
a peer review of updates to the vehicle
simulation model (GEM) for the
proposed Phase 2 standards has been
completed. This version of GEM is
based on the model used for the Phase
1 rule, which was peer-reviewed by a
panel of four independent subject
matter experts (from academia and a
national laboratory). The peer review
report and the agency’s response to the
peer review comments are available in
Docket ID No. EPA–HQ–OAR–2014–
0827.
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D. Executive Summary
(1) Commitment to Greenhouse Gas
Emission Reductions and Vehicle Fuel
Efficiency
As part of the Climate Action Plan
announced in June 2013,4 the President
directed the Environmental Protection
Agency (EPA) and the Department of
Transportation’s (DOT) National
Highway Traffic Safety Administration
(NHTSA) to set the next round of
standards to reduce greenhouse gas
(GHG) emissions and improve fuel
efficiency for medium- and heavy-duty
4 The White House, The President’s Climate
Action Plan (June, 2013). https://
www.whitehouse.gov/share/climate-action-plan.
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vehicles. More than 70 percent of the oil
used in the United States and 28 percent
of GHG emissions come from the
transportation sector, and since 2009
EPA and NHTSA have worked with
industry and states to develop
ambitious, flexible standards for both
the fuel economy and GHG emissions of
light-duty vehicles and the fuel
efficiency and GHG emissions of heavyduty vehicles.5 6 The standards
proposed here (referred to as Phase 2)
would build on the light-duty vehicle
standards spanning model years 2011 to
2025 and on the initial phase of
standards (referred to as Phase 1) for
new medium and heavy-duty vehicles
(MDVs and HDVs) and engines in model
years 2014 to 2018. Throughout every
stage of development for these
programs, EPA and NHTSA
(collectively, the agencies, or ‘‘we’’)
have worked in close partnership not
only with one another, but with the
vehicle manufacturing industry,
environmental community leaders, and
the State of California among other
entities to create a single, effective set of
national standards.
Through two previous rulemakings,
EPA and NHTSA have worked with the
auto industry to develop new fuel
economy and GHG emission standards
for light-duty vehicles. Taken together,
the light-duty vehicle standards span
model years 2011 to 2025 and are the
first significant improvement in fuel
economy in approximately two decades.
Under the final program, average new
car and light truck fuel economy is
expected to double by 2025.7 This is
projected to save consumers $1.7 trillion
at the pump—roughly $8,200 per
vehicle for a MY2025 vehicle—reducing
oil consumption by 2.2 million barrels
a day in 2025 and slashing GHG
emissions by 6 billion metric tons over
the lifetime of the vehicles sold during
this period.8 These fuel economy
standards are already delivering savings
for American drivers. Between model
years 2008 and 2013, the unadjusted
average test fuel economy of new
passenger cars and light trucks sold in
the United States has increased by about
four miles per gallon. Altogether, light5 The White House, Improving the Fuel Efficiency
of American Trucks—Bolstering Energy Security,
Cutting Carbon Pollution, Saving Money and
Supporting Manufacturing Innovation (Feb. 2014),
2.
6 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. 2014.
Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and
Sinks: 1990–2012. EPA 430–R–14–003. Mobile
sources emitted 28 percent of all U.S. GHG
emissions in 2012. Available at https://www.epa.gov/
climatechange/Downloads/ghgemissions/US-GHGInventory-2014-Main-Text.pdf.
7 Id.
8 Id.
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duty vehicle fuel economy standards
finalized after 2008 have already saved
nearly one billion gallons of fuel and
avoided more than 10 million tons of
carbon dioxide emissions.9
Similarly, EPA and NHTSA have
previously developed joint GHG
emission and fuel efficiency standards
for MDVs and HDVs. Prior to these
Phase 1 standards, heavy-duty trucks
and buses—from delivery vans to the
largest tractor-trailers—were required to
meet pollution standards for soot and
smog-causing air pollutants, but no
requirements existed for the fuel
efficiency or carbon pollution from
these vehicles.10 By 2010, total fuel
consumption and GHG emissions from
MDVs and HDVs had been growing, and
these vehicles accounted for 23 percent
of total U.S. transportation-related GHG
emissions.11 In August 2011, the
agencies finalized the groundbreaking
Phase 1 standards for new MDVs and
HDVs in model years 2014 through
2018. This program, developed with
support from the trucking and engine
industries, the State of California,
Environment Canada, and leaders from
the environmental community, set
standards that are expected to save a
projected 530 million barrels of oil and
reduce carbon emissions by about 270
million metric tons, representing one of
the most significant programs available
to reduce domestic emissions of
GHGs.12 The Phase 1 program, as well
as the many additional actions called for
in the President’s 2013 Climate Action
Plan 13 including this Phase 2
rulemaking, not only result in
meaningful decreases in GHG
emissions, but support—indeed are
critical for—United States leadership to
encourage other countries to also
achieve meaningful GHG reductions.
This proposal builds on our
commitment to robust collaboration
with stakeholders and the public. It
follows an expansive and thorough
outreach effort in which the agencies
gathered input, data and views from
many interested stakeholders, involving
over 200 meetings with heavy-duty
vehicle and engine manufacturers,
technology suppliers, trucking fleets,
truck drivers, dealerships,
environmental organizations, and state
agencies. As with the previous lightduty rules and the heavy-duty Phase 1
rule, the agencies have consulted
9 Id.
at 3.
10 Id.
11 Id.
12 Id.
at 4.
President’s Climate Action Plan calls for
GHG-cutting actions including, for example,
reducing carbon emissions from power plants and
curbing hydrofluorocarbon and methane emissions.
13 The
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frequently with the California Air
Resources Board staff during the
development of this Phase 2 proposal,
given California’s unique ability among
the states to adopt their own GHG
standards for on-highway engines and
vehicles. The agencies look forward to
feedback and ongoing conversation
following the release of this proposed
rule from all stakeholders—including
through planned public hearings,
written comments, and other
opportunities for input.
(2) Overview of Phase 1 Medium- and
Heavy-Duty Vehicle Standards
The President’s direction to EPA and
NHTSA to develop GHG emission and
fuel efficiency standards for MDVs and
HDVs resulted in the agencies’
promulgation of the Phase 1 program in
2011, which covers new trucks and
heavy vehicles in model years 2014 to
2018. The Phase 1 program includes
specific standards for combination
tractors, heavy-duty pickup trucks and
vans, and vocational vehicles, and
includes separate standards for both
vehicles and engines. The program
offers extensive flexibility, allowing
manufacturers to reach standards
through average fleet calculations, a mix
of technologies, and the use of various
credit and banking programs.
The Phase 1 program was developed
through close consultation with
industry and other stakeholders,
resulting in standards tailored to the
specifics of each different class of
vehicles and engines.
• Heavy-duty combination tractors.
Combination tractors—semi trucks that
typically pull trailers—are regulated
under nine subcategories based on
weight class, cab type, and roof height.
These vehicles represent approximately
two-thirds of all fuel consumption and
GHG emissions from MDVs and HDVs.
• Heavy-duty pickup trucks and vans.
Heavy-duty pickup and van standards
are based on a ‘‘work factor’’ attribute
that combines a vehicle’s payload,
towing capabilities, and the presence of
4-wheel drive. These vehicles represent
about 15 percent of the fuel
consumption and GHG emissions from
MDVs and HDVs.
• Vocational vehicles. Specialized
vocational vehicles, which consist of a
very wide variety of truck and bus types
(e.g., delivery, refuse, utility, dump,
cement, transit bus, shuttle bus, school
bus, emergency vehicles, and
recreational vehicles) are regulated in
three subcategories based on engine
classification. These vehicles represent
approximately 20 percent of the fuel
consumption and GHG emissions from
MDVs and HDVs. The Phase 1 program
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includes EPA GHG standards for
recreational vehicles, but not NHTSA
fuel efficiency standards.14
• Heavy-duty engines. In addition to
vehicle types, the Phase 1 rule has
separate standards for heavy-duty
engines, to assure they contribute to the
overall vehicle reductions in fuel
consumption and GHG emissions.
The Phase 1 standards are premised
on utilization of immediately available
technologies. The Phase 1 program
provides flexibilities that facilitate
compliance. These flexibilities help
provide sufficient lead time for
manufacturers to make necessary
technological improvements and reduce
the overall cost of the program, without
compromising overall environmental
and fuel consumption objectives. The
primary flexibility provisions are an
engine averaging, banking, and trading
(ABT) program and a vehicle ABT
program. These ABT programs allow for
emission and/or fuel consumption
credits to be averaged, banked, or traded
within each of the regulatory
subcategories. However, credits are not
allowed to be transferred across
subcategories.
The Phase 1 program is projected to
save 530 million barrels of oil and avoid
270 million metric tons of GHG
emissions.15 At the same time, the
program is projected to produce $50
billion in fuel savings, and net societal
benefits of $49 billion. Today, the Phase
1 fuel efficiency and GHG reduction
standards are already reducing GHG
emissions and U.S. oil consumption,
and producing fuel savings for
America’s trucking industry. The market
appears to be very accepting of the new
technology, and the agencies have seen
no evidence of ‘‘pre-buy’’ effects in
response to the standards.
(3) Overview of Proposed Phase 2
Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicle
Standards
The Phase 2 GHG and fuel efficiency
standards for MDVs and HDVs are a
critical next step in improving fuel
efficiency and reducing GHG. The
proposed Phase 2 standards carry
forward our commitment to meaningful
collaboration with stakeholders and the
public, as they build on more than 200
meetings with manufacturers, suppliers,
trucking fleets, dealerships, state air
quality agencies, non-governmental
14 The proposed Phase 2 program would also
include NHTSA recreational vehicle fuel efficiency
standards.
15 The White House, Improving the Fuel
Efficiency of American Trucks—Bolstering Energy
Security, Cutting Carbon Pollution, Saving Money
and Supporting Manufacturing Innovation (Feb.
2014), 4.
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organizations (NGOs), and other
stakeholders to identify and understand
the opportunities and challenges
involved with this next level of fuel
saving technology. These meetings have
been invaluable to the agencies,
enabling the development of a proposal
that appropriately balances all potential
impacts and effectively minimizes the
possibility of unintended consequences.
Phase 2 would include technologyadvancing standards that would phase
in over the long-term (through model
year 2027) to result in an ambitious, yet
achievable program that would allow
manufacturers to meet standards
through a mix of different technologies
at reasonable cost. The Phase 2
standards would maintain the
underlying regulatory structure
developed in the Phase 1 program, such
as the general categorization of MDVs
and HDVs and the separate standards
for vehicles and engines. However, the
Phase 2 program would build on and
advance Phase 1 in a number of
important ways including: Basing
standards not only on currently
available technologies but also on
utilization of technologies now under
development or not yet widely deployed
while providing significant lead time to
assure adequate time to develop, test,
and phase in these controls; developing
standards for trailers; further
encouraging innovation and providing
flexibility; including vehicles produced
by small business manufacturers;
incorporating enhanced test procedures
that (among other things) allow
individual drivetrain and powertrain
performance to be reflected in the
vehicle certification process; and using
an expanded and improved compliance
simulation model.
• Strengthening standards to account
for ongoing technological
advancements. Relative to the baseline
as of the end of Phase 1, the proposed
standards (labeled Alternative 3 or the
‘‘preferred alternative’’ throughout this
proposal) would achieve vehicle fuel
savings of up to 8 percent and 24
percent, depending on the vehicle
category. While costs are higher than for
Phase 1, benefits greatly exceed costs,
and payback periods are short, meaning
that consumers will see substantial net
savings over the vehicle lifetime.
Payback is estimated at about two years
for tractors and trailers, about five years
for vocational vehicles, and about three
years for heavy-duty pickups and vans.
The agencies are further proposing to
phase in these MY 2027 standards with
interim standards for model years 2021
and 2024 (and for certain types of
trailers, EPA is proposing model year
2018 phase-in standards as well).
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In addition to the proposed standards,
the agencies are considering another
alternative (Alternative 4), which would
achieve the same performance as the
proposed standards 2–3 years earlier,
leading to overall reductions in fuel use
and greenhouse gas emissions. The
agencies believe Alternative 4 has the
potential to be the maximum feasible
and appropriate alternative; however,
based on the evidence currently before
us, EPA and NHTSA have outstanding
questions regarding relative risks and
benefits of Alternative 4 due to the
timeframe envisioned by that
alternative. The agencies are proposing
Alternative 3 based on their analyses
and projections, and taking into account
the agencies’ respective statutory
considerations. The comments that the
agencies receive on this proposal will be
instrumental in helping us determine
standards that are appropriate (for EPA)
and maximum feasible (for NHTSA),
given the discretion that both agencies
have under our respective statutes.
Therefore, the agencies have presented
different options and raised specific
questions throughout the proposed rule,
focusing in particular on better
understanding the perspectives on the
feasible adoption rates of different
technologies, considering associated
costs and necessary lead time.
• Setting standards for trailers for the
first time. In addition to retaining the
vehicle and engine categories covered in
the Phase 1 program, which include
semi tractors, heavy-duty pickup trucks
and work vans, vocational vehicles, and
separate standards for heavy-duty
engines, the Phase 2 standards propose
fuel efficiency and GHG emission
standards for trailers used in
combination with tractors. Although the
agencies are not proposing standards for
all trailer types, the majority of new
trailers would be covered.
• Encouraging technological
innovation while providing flexibility
and options for manufacturers. For each
category of HDVs, the standards would
set performance targets that allow
manufacturers to achieve reductions
through a mix of different technologies
and leave manufacturers free to choose
any means of compliance. For tractors
and vocational vehicles, enhanced test
procedures and an expanded and
improved compliance simulation model
enable the proposed vehicle standards
to encompass more of the complete
vehicle and to account for engine,
transmission and driveline
improvements than the Phase 1
program. With the addition of the
powertrain and driveline to the
compliance model, representative drive
cycles and vehicle baseline
configurations become critically
important to assure the standards
promote technologies that improve real
world fuel efficiency and GHG
emissions. This proposal updates drive
cycles and vehicle configurations to
better reflect real world operation. For
tractor standards, for example, different
combinations of improvements like
advanced aerodynamics, engine
improvements and waste-heat recovery,
automated transmission, and lower
rolling resistance tires and automatic
tire inflation can be used to meet
standards. Additionally, the agencies’
analyses indicate that this proposal
should have no adverse impact on
vehicle or engine safety.
• Providing flexibilities to help
minimize effect on small businesses. All
small businesses are exempt from the
Phase 1 standards. The agencies are
proposing to regulate small business
entities under Phase 2 (notably certain
trailer manufacturers), but have
conducted extensive proceedings
pursuant to Section 609 of the
Regulatory Flexibility Act, and
otherwise have engaged in extensive
consultation with stakeholders, and
developed a proposed approach to
provide targeted flexibilities geared
toward helping small businesses comply
with the Phase 2 standards. Specifically,
the agencies are proposing to delay all
new requirements by one year and
simplify certification requirements for
small businesses, and are further
proposing additional specific
flexibilities adapted to particular types
of trailers.
SUMMARY OF THE PROPOSED PHASE 2 MEDIUM- AND HEAVY-DUTY VEHICLE RULE IMPACTS TO FUEL CONSUMPTION,
GHG EMISSIONS, BENEFITS AND COSTS OVER THE LIFETIME OF MODEL YEARS 2018–2029, BASED ON ANALYSIS
METHOD A a b c
3%
Fuel Reductions (billion gallons) .............................................................................................................................
GHG Reductions (MMT, CO2eq) .............................................................................................................................
Pre-Tax Fuel Savings ($billion) ...............................................................................................................................
Discounted Technology Costs ($billion) ..................................................................................................................
Value of reduced emissions ($billion) .....................................................................................................................
Total Costs ($billion) ................................................................................................................................................
Total Benefits ($billion) ............................................................................................................................................
Net Benefits ($billion) ..............................................................................................................................................
7%
72–77
974–1034
165–175
25–25.4
70.1–73.7
30.5–31.1
261–276
231–245
89–94
16.8 -17.1
52.9–55.6
20.0–20.5
156–165
136–144
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Notes:
a For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
b Range reflects two reference case assumptions, one that projects very little improvement in new vehicle fuel efficiency absent new standards, and the second that projects more significant improvements in vehicle fuel efficiency absent new standards.
c Benefits and net benefits (including those in the 7% discount rate column) use the 3 percent average SCC–CO value applied only to CO
2
2
emissions; GHG reductions include CO2, CH4, N2O and HFC reductions.
SUMMARY OF THE PROPOSED PHASE 2 MEDIUM- AND HEAVY-DUTY VEHICLE ANNUAL FUEL AND GHG REDUCTIONS,
PROGRAM COSTS, BENEFITS AND NET BENEFITS IN CALENDAR YEARS 2035 AND 2050, BASED ON ANALYSIS METHOD B a
2035
Fuel Reductions (Billion Gallons) ............................................................................................................................
GHG Reduction (MMT, CO2eq) ...............................................................................................................................
Vehicle Program Costs (including Maintenance; Billions of 2012$) .......................................................................
Fuel Savings (Pre-Tax; Billions of 2012$) ...............................................................................................................
Benefits (Billions of 2012$) ......................................................................................................................................
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127.1
¥$6.0
$37.2
$20.5
2050
13.4
183.4
¥$7.1
$57.5
$32.9
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SUMMARY OF THE PROPOSED PHASE 2 MEDIUM- AND HEAVY-DUTY VEHICLE ANNUAL FUEL AND GHG REDUCTIONS, PROGRAM COSTS, BENEFITS AND NET BENEFITS IN CALENDAR YEARS 2035 AND 2050, BASED ON ANALYSIS METHOD
B a—Continued
2035
Net Benefits (Billions of 2012$) ...............................................................................................................................
2050
$51.7
$83.2
Note:
a Benefits and net benefits use the 3 percent average SCC-CO value applied only to CO emissions; GHG reductions include CO , CH , N O
2
2
2
4
2
and HFC reductions; values reflect the preferred alternative relative to the less dynamic baseline (a reference case that projects very little improvement in new vehicle fuel economy absent new standards.
SUMMARY OF THE PROPOSED PHASE 2 MEDIUM- AND HEAVY-DUTY VEHICLE PROGRAM EXPECTED PER-VEHICLE FUEL
SAVINGS, GHG EMISSION REDUCTIONS, AND COST FOR KEY VEHICLE CATEGORIES, BASED ON ANALYSIS METHOD B a
MY 2021
Maximum Vehicle Fuel Savings and Tailpipe GHG Reduction (%)
Tractors ........................................................................................................................
Trailers b .......................................................................................................................
Vocational Vehicles .....................................................................................................
Pickups/Vans ...............................................................................................................
Per Vehicle Cost ($) c (% Increase in Typical Vehicle Price) d
Tractors ........................................................................................................................
Trailers .........................................................................................................................
Vocational Vehicles .....................................................................................................
Pickups/Vans ...............................................................................................................
MY 2024
MY 2027
13
4
7
2.5
20
6
11
10
24
8
16
16
$6,710 (7%)
$900 (4%)
$1,150 (2%)
$520 (1%)
$9,940 (10%)
$1,010 (4%)
$1,770 (3%)
$950 (2%)
$11,680 (12%)
$1,170 (5%)
$3,380 (5%)
$1,340 (3%)
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Notes:
a Note that the proposed EPA standards for some categories of box trailers begin in model year 2018; values reflect the preferred alternative
relative to the less dynamic baseline (a reference case that projects very little improvement in new vehicle fuel economy absent new standards.
b All engine costs are included.
c For this table, we use a minimum vehicle price today of $100,000 for tractors, $25,000 for trailers, $70,000 for vocational vehicles and
$40,000 for HD pickups/vans.
aggregate GHG impacts, fuel
consumption impacts, climate impacts,
PAYBACK PERIODS FOR MY2027 VEHI and impacts on non-GHG emissions.
CLES
UNDER THE PROPOSED Section IX evaluates the economic
STANDARDS, BASED ON ANALYSIS impacts of the proposed standards.
Sections X, XI, and XII present the
METHOD B
[Payback occurs in the year shown; using 7% alternatives analyses, consideration of
natural gas vehicles, and the agencies’
discounting]
initial response to recommendations
from the Academy of Sciences. Finally,
Proposed
standards
Sections XIII and XIV discuss the
changes that the proposed Phase 2 rules
Tractors/Trailers ....................
2nd
Vocational Vehicles ..............
6th would have on Phase 1 standards and
Pickups/Vans ........................
3rd other regulatory provisions. In addition
to this preamble, the agencies have also
prepared a joint Draft Regulatory Impact
(4) Issues Addressed in This Proposed
Analysis (DRIA) which is available on
Rule
our respective Web sites and in the
This proposed rule contains extensive public docket for this rulemaking which
discussion of the background, elements, provides additional data, analysis and
and implications of the proposed Phase
discussion of the proposed standards
2 program. Section I includes
and the alternatives analyzed by the
information on the MDV and HDV
agencies. We request comment on all
industry, related regulatory and nonaspects of this proposed rulemaking,
regulatory programs, summaries of
including the DRIA.
Phase 1 and Phase 2 programs, costs and
Table of Contents
benefits of the proposed standards, and
relevant statutory authority for EPA and
A. Does this action apply to me?
NHTSA. Section II discusses vehicle
B. Public Participation
simulation, engine standards, and test
C. Did EPA conduct a peer review before
procedures. Sections III, IV, V, and VI
issuing this notice?
detail the proposed standards for
D. Executive Summary
combination tractors, trailers, vocational I. Overview
vehicles, and heavy-duty pickup trucks
A. Background
and vans. Sections VII and VIII discuss
B. Summary of Phase 1 Program
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C. Summary of the Proposed Phase 2
Standards and Requirements
D. Summary of the Costs and Benefits of
the Proposed Rule
E. EPA and NHTSA Statutory Authorities
F. Other Issues
II. Vehicle Simulation, Engine Standards and
Test Procedures
A. Introduction and Summary of Phase 1
and Phase 2 Regulatory Structures
B. Phase 2 Proposed Regulatory Structure
C. Proposed Vehicle Simulation Model—
Phase 2 GEM
D. Proposed Engine Test Procedures and
Engine Standards
III. Class 7 and 8 Combination Tractors
A. Summary of the Phase 1 Tractor
Program
B. Overview of the Proposed Phase 2
Tractor Program
C. Proposed Phase 2 Tractor Standards
D. Feasibility of the Proposed Tractor
Standards
E. Proposed Compliance Provisions for
Tractors
F. Flexibility Provisions
IV. Trailers
A. Summary of Trailer Consideration in
Phase 1
B. The Trailer Industry
C. Proposed Phase 2 Trailer Standards
D. Feasibility of the Proposed Trailer
Standards
E. Alternative Standards and Feasibility
Considered
F. Trailer Standards: Compliance and
Flexibilities
V. Class 2b–8 Vocational Vehicles
A. Summary of Phase 1 Vocational Vehicle
Standards
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B. Proposed Phase 2 Standards for
Vocational Vehicles
C. Feasibility of the Proposed Vocational
Vehicle Standards
D. Alternative Vocational Vehicle
Standards Considered
E. Compliance Provisions for Vocational
Vehicles
VI. Heavy-Duty Pickups and Vans
A. Introduction and Summary of Phase 1
HD Pickup and Van Standards
B. Proposed HD Pickup and Van Standards
C. Feasibility of Pickup and Van Standards
D. DOT CAFE Model Analysis of the
Regulatory Alternatives for HD Pickups
and Vans
E. Compliance and Flexibility for HD
Pickup and Van Standards
VII. Aggregate GHG, Fuel Consumption, and
Climate Impacts
A. What methodologies did the agencies
use to project GHG emissions and fuel
consumption impacts?
B. Analysis of Fuel Consumption and GHG
Emissions Impacts Resulting From
Proposed Standards and Alternative 4
C. What are the projected reductions in
fuel consumption and GHG emissions?
VIII. How will this proposed action impact
non-GHG emissions and their associated
effects?
A. Emissions Inventory Impacts
B. Health Effects of Non-GHG Pollutants
C. Environmental Effects of Non-GHG
Pollutants
D. Air Quality Impacts of Non-GHG
Pollutants
IX. Economic and Other Impacts
A. Conceptual Framework
B. Vehicle-Related Costs Associated With
the Program
C. Changes in Fuel Consumption and
Expenditures
D. Maintenance Expenditures
E. Analysis of the Rebound Effect
F. Impact on Class Shifting, Fleet
Turnover, and Sales
G. Monetized GHG Impacts
H. Monetized Non-GHG Health Impacts
I. Energy Security Impacts
J. Other Impacts
K. Summary of Benefits and Costs
L. Employment Impacts
M. Cost of Ownership and Payback
Analysis
N. Safety Impacts
X. Analysis of the Alternatives
A. What are the alternatives that the
agencies considered?
B. How do these alternatives compare in
overall fuel consumption and GHG
emissions reductions and in benefits and
costs?
XI. Natural Gas Vehicles and Engines
A. Natural Gas Engine and Vehicle
Technology
B. GHG Lifecycle Analysis for Natural Gas
Vehicles
C. Projected Use of LNG and CNG
D. Natural Gas Emission Control Measures
E. Dimethyl Ether
XII. Agencies’ Response to Recommendations
From the National Academy of Sciences
A. Overview
B. Major Findings and Recommendations
of the NAS Phase 2 First Report
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XIII. Amendments to Phase 1 Standards
A. EPA Amendments
B. Other Compliance Provisions for
NHTSA
XIV. Other Proposed Regulatory Provisions
A. Proposed Amendments Related to
Heavy-Duty Highway Engines and
Vehicles
B. Amendments Affecting Gliders and
Glider Kits
C. Applying the General Compliance
Provisions of 40 CFR Part 1068 to LightDuty Vehicles, Light-Duty Trucks,
Chassis-Certified Class 2B and 3 HeavyDuty Vehicles and Highway Motorcycles
D. Amendments to General Compliance
Provisions in 40 CFR Part 1068
E. Amendments to Light-Duty Greenhouse
Gas Program Requirements
F. Amendments to Highway and Nonroad
Test Procedures and Certification
Requirements
G. Amendments Related to Nonroad Diesel
Engines in 40 CFR Part 1039
H. Amendments Related to Marine Diesel
Engines in 40 CFR Parts 1042 and 1043
I. Amendments Related to Locomotives in
40 CFR Part 1033
J. Miscellaneous EPA Amendments
K. Amending 49 CFR Parts 512 and 537 To
Allow Electronic Submissions and
Defining Data Formats for Light-Duty
Vehicle Corporate Average Fuel
Economy (CAFE) Reports
XV. Statutory and Executive Order Reviews
A. Executive Order 12866: Regulatory
Planning and Review and Executive
Order 13563: Improving Regulation and
Regulatory Review
B. National Environmental Policy Act
C. Paperwork Reduction Act
D. Regulatory Flexibility Act
E. Unfunded Mandates Reform Act
F. Executive Order 13132: Federalism
G. Executive Order 13175: Consultation
and Coordination With Indian Tribal
Governments
H. Executive Order 13045: Protection of
Children From Environmental Health
Risks and Safety Risks
I. Executive Order 13211: Actions
Concerning Regulations That
Significantly Affect Energy Supply,
Distribution, or Use
J. National Technology Transfer and
Advancement Act and 1 CFR Part 51
K. Executive Order 12898: Federal Actions
To Address Environmental Justice in
Minority Populations and Low-Income
Populations
L. Endangered Species Act
XVI. EPA and NHTSA Statutory Authorities
A. EPA
B. NHTSA
C. List of Subjects
I. Overview
A. Background
This background and summary of the
proposed Phase 2 GHG emissions and
fuel efficiency standards includes an
overview of the heavy-duty truck
industry and related regulatory and nonregulatory programs, a summary of the
Phase 1 GHG emissions and fuel
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40145
efficiency program, a summary of the
proposed Phase 2 standards and
requirements, a summary of the costs
and benefits of the proposed Phase 2
standards, discussion of EPA and
NHTSA statutory authorities, and other
issues.
For purposes of this preamble, the
terms ‘‘heavy-duty’’ or ‘‘HD’’ are used to
apply to all highway vehicles and
engines that are not within the range of
light-duty passenger cars, light-duty
trucks, and medium-duty passenger
vehicles (MDPV) covered by separate
GHG and Corporate Average Fuel
Economy (CAFE) standards.16 They do
not include motorcycles. Thus, in this
rulemaking, unless specified otherwise,
the heavy-duty category incorporates all
vehicles with a gross vehicle weight
rating above 8,500 lbs, and the engines
that power them, except for MDPVs.17 18
Consistent with the President’s
direction, over the past two years as we
have developed this proposal, the
agencies have met on an on-going basis
with a very large number of diverse
stakeholders. This includes meetings,
and in many cases site visits, with truck,
trailer, and engine manufacturers;
technology supplier companies and
their trade associations (e.g.,
transmissions, drive lines, fuel systems,
turbochargers, tires, catalysts, and many
others); line haul and vocational
trucking firms and trucking
associations; the trucking industries
owner-operator association; truck
dealerships and dealers associations;
trailer manufacturers and their trade
association; non-governmental
organizations (NGOs, including
environmental NGOs, national security
NGOs, and consumer advocacy NGOs);
state air quality agencies; manufacturing
labor unions; and many other
stakeholders. In particular, NHTSA and
EPA have consulted on an on-going
basis with the California Air Resources
Board (CARB) over the past two years as
we have developed the Phase 2
proposal. In addition, CARB staff and
managers have also participated with
EPA and NHTSA in meetings with
16 2017 and Later Model Year Light-Duty Vehicle
Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Corporate Average
Fuel Economy Standards; Final Rule, 77 FR 62623,
October 15, 2012.
17 The CAA defines heavy-duty as a truck, bus or
other motor vehicles with a gross vehicle weight
rating exceeding 6,000 lbs (CAA section 202(b)(3)).
The term HD as used in this action refers to a subset
of these vehicles and engines.
18 The Energy Independence and Security Act of
2007 requires NHTSA to set standards for
commercial medium- and heavy-duty on-highway
vehicles, defined as on-highway vehicles with a
GVWR of 10,000 lbs or more, and work trucks,
defined as vehicles with a GVWR between 8,500
and 10,000 lbs and excluding medium duty
passenger vehicles.
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many external stakeholders, in
particular with vehicle OEMs and
technology suppliers.19
NHTSA and EPA staff also
participated in a large number of
technical and policy conferences over
the past two years related to the
technological, economic, and
environmental aspects of the heavy-duty
trucking industry. The agencies also met
with regulatory counterparts from
several other nations who either have
already or are considering establishing
fuel consumption or GHG requirements,
including outreach with representatives
from the governments of Canada, the
European Commission, Japan, and
China.
These comprehensive outreach
actions by the agencies provided us
with information to assist in our
identification of potential technologies
that can be used to reduce heavy-duty
GHG emissions and improve fuel
efficiency. The outreach has also helped
the agencies to identify and understand
the opportunities and challenges
involved with the proposed standards
for the heavy-duty trucks, trailers, and
engines detailed in this preamble,
including time needed for
implementation of various technologies
and potential costs and fuel savings.
The scope of this outreach effort to
gather input for the proposal included
well over 200 meetings with
stakeholders. These meetings and
conferences have been invaluable to the
agencies. We believe they have enabled
us to develop this proposal in such a
way as to appropriately balance all of
the potential impacts, to minimize the
possibility of unintended consequences,
and to ensure that we are requesting
comment on a wide range of issues that
can inform the final rule.
(1) Brief Overview of the Heavy-Duty
Truck Industry
The heavy-duty sector is diverse in
several respects, including the types of
manufacturing companies involved, the
range of sizes of trucks and engines they
produce, the types of work for which
the trucks are designed, and the
regulatory history of different
subcategories of vehicles and engines.
The current heavy-duty fleet
encompasses vehicles from the ‘‘18wheeler’’ combination tractors one sees
on the highway to the largest pickup
trucks and vans, as well as vocational
vehicles covering a range between these
extremes. Together, the HD sector spans
a wide range of vehicles with often
specialized form and function. A
primary indicator of the diversity among
heavy-duty trucks is the range of loadcarrying capability across the industry.
The heavy-duty truck sector is often
subdivided by vehicle weight
classifications, as defined by the
vehicle’s gross vehicle weight rating
(GVWR), which is a measure of the
combined curb (empty) weight and
cargo carrying capacity of the truck.20
Table I–1 below outlines the vehicle
weight classifications commonly used
for many years for a variety of purposes
by businesses and by several Federal
agencies, including the Department of
Transportation, the Environmental
Protection Agency, the Department of
Commerce, and the Internal Revenue
Service.
TABLE I–1—VEHICLE WEIGHT CLASSIFICATION
2b
3
4
5
6
7
GVWR (lb) ....................
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Class
8,501–10,000
10,001–14,000
14,001–16,000
16,001–19,500
19,501–26,000
26,001–33,000
8
>33,000
In the framework of these vehicle
weight classifications, the heavy-duty
truck sector refers to ‘‘Class 2b’’ through
‘‘Class 8’’ vehicles and the engines that
power those vehicles.21
Unlike light-duty vehicles, which are
primarily used for transporting
passengers for personal travel, heavyduty vehicles fill much more diverse
operator needs. Heavy-duty pickup
trucks and vans (Classes 2b and 3) are
used chiefly as work trucks and vans,
and as shuttle vans, as well as for
personal transportation, with an average
annual mileage in the range of 15,000
miles. The rest of the heavy-duty sector
is used for carrying cargo and/or
performing specialized tasks.
‘‘Vocational’’ vehicles, which may span
Classes 2b through 8, vary widely in
size, including smaller and larger van
trucks, utility ‘‘bucket’’ trucks, tank
trucks, refuse trucks, urban and overthe-road buses, fire trucks, flat-bed
trucks, and dump trucks, among others.
The annual mileage of these vehicles is
as varied as their uses, but for the most
part tends to fall in between heavy-duty
pickups/vans and the large combination
tractors, typically from 15,000 to
150,000 miles per year.
Class 7 and 8 combination tractortrailers—some equipped with sleeper
cabs and some not—are primarily used
for freight transportation. They are sold
as tractors and operate with one or more
trailers that can carry up to 50,000 lbs
or more of payload, consuming
significant quantities of fuel and
producing significant amounts of GHG
emissions. Together, Class 7 and 8
tractors and trailers account for
approximately two-thirds of the heavyduty sector’s total CO2 emissions and
fuel consumption. Trailer designs vary
significantly, reflecting the wide variety
of cargo types. However, the most
common types of trailers are box vans
(dry and refrigerated), which are a focus
of this Phase 2 rulemaking. The tractortrailers used in combination
applications can and frequently do
travel more than 150,000 miles per year
and can operate for 20–30 years.
EPA and NHTSA have designed our
respective proposed standards in careful
consideration of the diversity and
complexity of the heavy-duty truck
industry, as discussed in Section I.B.
19 Vehicle chassis manufacturers are known in
this industry as original equipment manufacturers
or OEMs.
20 GVWR describes the maximum load that can be
carried by a vehicle, including the weight of the
vehicle itself. Heavy-duty vehicles (including those
designed for primary purposes other than towing)
also have a gross combined weight rating (GCWR),
which describes the maximum load that the vehicle
can haul, including the weight of a loaded trailer
and the vehicle itself.
21 Class 2b vehicles manufactured as passenger
vehicles (Medium Duty Passenger Vehicles,
MDPVs) are covered by the light-duty GHG and fuel
economy standards and therefore are not addressed
in this rulemaking.
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(2) Related Regulatory and NonRegulatory Programs
(a) History of EPA’s Heavy-Duty
Regulatory Program and Impacts of
Greenhouse Gases on Climate Change
This subsection provides an overview
of the history of EPA’s heavy-duty
regulatory program and impacts of
greenhouse gases on climate change.
(i) History of EPA’s Heavy-Duty
Regulatory Program
Since the 1980s, EPA has acted
several times to address tailpipe
emissions of criteria pollutants and air
toxics from heavy-duty vehicles and
engines. During the last two decades
these programs have primarily
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addressed emissions of particulate
matter (PM) and the primary ozone
precursors, hydrocarbons (HC) and
oxides of nitrogen (NOX). These
programs, which have successfully
achieved significant and cost-effective
reductions in emissions and associated
health and welfare benefits to the
nation, were an important basis of the
Phase 1 program. See e.g. 66 FR 5002,
5008, and 5011–5012 (January 18, 2001)
(detailing substantial public health
benefits of controls of criteria pollutants
from heavy-duty diesel engines,
including bringing areas into attainment
with primary (public health) PM
NAAQS, or contributing substantially to
such attainment); National
Petrochemical Refiners Association v.
EPA, 287 F.3d 1130, 1134 (D.C. Cir.
2002) (referring to the ‘‘dramatic
reductions’’ in criteria pollutant
emissions resulting from those onhighway heavy-duty engine standards,
and upholding all of the standards).
As required by the Clean Air Act
(CAA), the emission standards
implemented by these programs include
standards that apply at the time that the
vehicle or engine is sold and continue
to apply in actual use. EPA’s overall
program goal has always been to achieve
emissions reductions from the complete
vehicles that operate on our roads. The
agency has often accomplished this goal
for many heavy-duty truck categories by
regulating heavy-duty engine emissions.
A key part of this success has been the
development over many years of a wellestablished, representative, and robust
set of engine test procedures that
industry and EPA now use routinely to
measure emissions and determine
compliance with emission standards.
These test procedures in turn serve the
overall compliance program that EPA
implements to help ensure that
emissions reductions are being
achieved. By isolating the engine from
the many variables involved when the
engine is installed and operated in a HD
vehicle, EPA has been able to accurately
address the contribution of the engine
alone to overall emissions.
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(ii) Impacts of Greenhouse Gases on
Climate Change
In 2009, the EPA Administrator
issued the document known as the
Endangerment Finding under CAA
Section 202(a)(1).22 In the
Endangerment Finding, which focused
on public health and public welfare
impacts within the United States, the
22 ‘‘Endangerment and Cause or Contribute
Findings for Greenhouse Gases Under Section
202(a) of the Clean Air Act,’’ 74 FR 66496
(December 15, 2009) (‘‘Endangerment Finding’’).
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Administrator found that elevated
concentrations of GHG emissions in the
atmosphere may reasonably be
anticipated to endanger public health
and welfare of current and future
generations. See also Coalition for
Responsible Regulation v. EPA, 684 F.3d
102, 117–123 (D.C. Cir. 2012)
(upholding the endangerment finding in
all respects). The following sections
summarize the key information
included in the Endangerment Finding.
Climate change caused by human
emissions of GHGs threatens public
health in multiple ways. By raising
average temperatures, climate change
increases the likelihood of heat waves,
which are associated with increased
deaths and illnesses. While climate
change also increases the likelihood of
reductions in cold-related mortality,
evidence indicates that the increases in
heat mortality will be larger than the
decreases in cold mortality in the
United States. Compared to a future
without climate change, climate change
is expected to increase ozone pollution
over broad areas of the U.S., including
in the largest metropolitan areas with
the worst ozone problems, and thereby
increase the risk of morbidity and
mortality. Other public health threats
also stem from projected increases in
intensity or frequency of extreme
weather associated with climate change,
such as increased hurricane intensity,
increased frequency of intense storms
and heavy precipitation. Increased
coastal storms and storm surges due to
rising sea levels are expected to cause
increased drownings and other adverse
health impacts. Children, the elderly,
and the poor are among the most
vulnerable to these climate-related
health effects. See also 79 FR 75242
(December 17, 2014) (climate change,
and temperature increases in particular,
likely to increase O3 (Ozone) pollution
‘‘over broad areas of the U.S., including
the largest metropolitan areas with the
worst O3 problems, increas[ing] the risk
of morbidity and mortality’’).
Climate change caused by human
emissions of GHGs also threatens public
welfare in multiple ways. Climate
changes are expected to place large
areas of the country at serious risk of
reduced water supplies, increased water
pollution, and increased occurrence of
extreme events such as floods and
droughts. Coastal areas are expected to
face increased risks from storm and
flooding damage to property, as well as
adverse impacts from rising sea level,
such as land loss due to inundation,
erosion, wetland submergence and
habitat loss. Climate change is expected
to result in an increase in peak
electricity demand, and extreme
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weather from climate change threatens
energy, transportation, and water
resource infrastructure. Climate change
may exacerbate ongoing environmental
pressures in certain settlements,
particularly in Alaskan indigenous
communities. Climate change also is
very likely to fundamentally rearrange
U.S. ecosystems over the 21st century.
Though some benefits may balance
adverse effects on agriculture and
forestry in the next few decades, the
body of evidence points towards
increasing risks of net adverse impacts
on U.S. food production, agriculture and
forest productivity as temperature
continues to rise. These impacts are
global and may exacerbate problems
outside the U.S. that raise humanitarian,
trade, and national security issues for
the U.S. See also 79 FR 75382
(December 17, 2014) (welfare effects of
O3 increases due to climate change,
with emphasis on increased wildfires).
As outlined in Section VIII.A. of the
2009 Endangerment Finding, EPA’s
approach to providing the technical and
scientific information to inform the
Administrator’s judgment regarding the
question of whether GHGs endanger
public health and welfare was to rely
primarily upon the recent, major
assessments by the U.S. Global Change
Research Program (USGCRP), the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC), and the National
Research Council (NRC) of the National
Academies. These assessments
addressed the scientific issues that EPA
was required to examine, were
comprehensive in their coverage of the
GHG and climate change issues, and
underwent rigorous and exacting peer
review by the expert community, as
well as rigorous levels of U.S.
government review. Since the
administrative record concerning the
Endangerment Finding closed following
EPA’s 2010 Reconsideration Denial, a
number of such assessments have been
released. These assessments include the
IPCC’s 2012 ‘‘Special Report on
Managing the Risks of Extreme Events
and Disasters to Advance Climate
Change Adaptation’’ (SREX) and the
2013–2014 Fifth Assessment Report
(AR5), the USGCRP’s 2014 ‘‘Climate
Change Impacts in the United States’’
(Climate Change Impacts), and the
NRC’s 2010 ‘‘Ocean Acidification: A
National Strategy to Meet the Challenges
of a Changing Ocean’’ (Ocean
Acidification), 2011 ‘‘Report on Climate
Stabilization Targets: Emissions,
Concentrations, and Impacts over
Decades to Millennia’’ (Climate
Stabilization Targets), 2011 ‘‘National
Security Implications for U.S. Naval
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Forces’’ (National Security
Implications), 2011 ‘‘Understanding
Earth’s Deep Past: Lessons for Our
Climate Future’’ (Understanding Earth’s
Deep Past), 2012 ‘‘Sea Level Rise for the
Coasts of California, Oregon, and
Washington: Past, Present, and Future’’,
2012 ‘‘Climate and Social Stress:
Implications for Security Analysis’’
(Climate and Social Stress), and 2013
‘‘Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change’’
(Abrupt Impacts) assessments.
EPA has reviewed these new
assessments and finds that the improved
understanding of the climate system
they present strengthens the case that
GHG emissions endanger public health
and welfare.
In addition, these assessments
highlight the urgency of the situation as
the concentration of CO2 in the
atmosphere continues to rise. Absent a
reduction in emissions, a recent
National Research Council of the
National Academies assessment
projected that concentrations by the end
of the century would increase to levels
that the Earth has not experienced for
millions of years.23 In fact, that
assessment stated that ‘‘the magnitude
and rate of the present greenhouse gas
increase place the climate system in
what could be one of the most severe
increases in radiative forcing of the
global climate system in Earth
history.’’ 24 What this means, as stated
in another NRC assessment, is that:
Moreover, due to the time-lags
inherent in the Earth’s climate, the
Climate Stabilization Targets assessment
notes that the full warming from any
given concentration of CO2 reached will
not be realized for several centuries.
The recently released USGCRP
‘‘National Climate Assessment’’ 26
emphasizes that climate change is
already happening now and it is
happening in the United States. The
(b) The NHTSA and EPA Light-Duty
National GHG and Fuel Economy
Program
On May 7, 2010, EPA and NHTSA
finalized the first-ever National Program
for light-duty cars and trucks, which set
GHG emissions and fuel economy
standards for model years 2012–2016
(see 75 FR 25324). More recently, the
agencies adopted even stricter standards
for model years 2017 and later (77 FR
62624, October 15, 2012). The agencies
have used the light-duty National
Program as a model for the HD National
Program in several respects. This is
most apparent in the case of heavy-duty
pickups and vans, which are similar to
the light-duty trucks addressed in the
light-duty National Program both
technologically as well as in terms of
how they are manufactured (i.e., the
same company often makes both the
vehicle and the engine, and several
light-duty manufacturers also
manufacture HD pickups and vans).29
For HD pickups and vans, there are
23 National Research Council, Understanding
Earth’s Deep Past, p. 1
24 Id., p.138.
25 National Research Council, Climate
Stabilization Targets, p. 3.
26 U.S. Global Change Research Program, Climate
Change Impacts in the United States: The Third
National Climate Assessment, May 2014 Available
at https://nca2014.globalchange.gov/.
27 ftp://aftp.cmdl.noaa.gov/products/trends/co2/
co2_annmean_mlo.txt.
28 https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/.
29 This is more broadly true for heavy-duty
pickup trucks than vans because every
manufacturer of heavy-duty pickup trucks also
makes light-duty pickup trucks, while only some
heavy-duty van manufacturers also make light-duty
vans.
Emissions of carbon dioxide from the
burning of fossil fuels have ushered in a new
epoch where human activities will largely
determine the evolution of Earth’s climate.
Because carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is
long lived, it can effectively lock Earth and
future generations into a range of impacts,
some of which could become very severe.
Therefore, emission reductions choices made
today matter in determining impacts
experienced not just over the next few
decades, but in the coming centuries and
millennia.25
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assessment documents the increases in
some extreme weather and climate
events in recent decades, the damage
and disruption to infrastructure and
agriculture, and projects continued
increases in impacts across a wide range
of peoples, sectors, and ecosystems.
These assessments underscore the
urgency of reducing emissions now:
Today’s emissions will otherwise lead
to raised atmospheric concentrations for
thousands of years, and raised Earth
system temperatures for even longer.
Emission reductions today will benefit
the public health and public welfare of
current and future generations.
Finally, it should be noted that the
concentration of carbon dioxide in the
atmosphere continues to rise
dramatically. In 2009, the year of the
Endangerment Finding, the average
concentration of carbon dioxide as
measured on top of Mauna Loa was 387
parts per million.27 The average
concentration in 2013 was 396 parts per
million. And the monthly concentration
in April of 2014 was 401 parts per
million, the first time a monthly average
has exceeded 400 parts per million
since record keeping began at Mauna
Loa in 1958, and for at least the past
800,000 years according to ice core
records.28
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close parallels to the light-duty program
in how the agencies have developed our
respective heavy-duty standards and
compliance structures. However, HD
pickups and vans are true work vehicles
that are designed for much higher
towing and payload capabilities than are
light-duty pickups and vans. The
technologies applied to light-duty trucks
are not all applicable to heavy-duty
pickups and vans at the same adoption
rates, and the technologies often
produce a lower percent reduction in
CO2 emissions and fuel consumption
when used in heavy-duty vehicles.
Another difference between the lightduty and the heavy-duty standards is
that each agency adopts heavy-duty
standards based on attributes other than
vehicle footprint, as discussed below.
Due to the diversity of the remaining
HD vehicles, there are fewer parallels
with the structure of the light-duty
program. However, the agencies have
maintained the same collaboration and
coordination that characterized the
development of the light-duty program
throughout the Phase 1 rulemaking and
the continued efforts for Phase 2. Most
notably, as with the light-duty program,
manufacturers would continue to be
able to design and build vehicles to
meet a closely coordinated, harmonized
national program, and to avoid
unnecessarily duplicative testing and
compliance burdens. In addition, the
averaging, banking, and trading
provisions in the HD program, although
structurally different from those of the
light-duty program, serve the same
purpose, which is to allow
manufacturers to achieve large
reductions in fuel consumption and
emissions while providing a broad mix
of products to their customers. The
agencies have also worked closely with
CARB to provide harmonized national
standards.
(c) EPA’s SmartWay Program
EPA’s voluntary SmartWay Transport
Partnership program encourages
businesses to take actions that reduce
fuel consumption and CO2 emissions
while cutting costs by working with the
shipping, logistics, and carrier
communities to identify low carbon
strategies and technologies across their
transportation supply chains. SmartWay
provides technical information,
benchmarking and tracking tools,
market incentives, and partner
recognition to facilitate and accelerate
the adoption of these strategies.
Through the SmartWay program and its
related technology assessment center,
EPA has worked closely with truck and
trailer manufacturers and truck fleets
over the last ten years to develop test
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procedures to evaluate vehicle and
component performance in reducing
fuel consumption and has conducted
testing and has established test
programs to verify technologies that can
achieve these reductions. SmartWay
partners have demonstrated these new
and emerging technologies in their
business operations, adding to the body
of technical data and information that
EPA can disseminate to industry,
researchers and other stakeholders. Over
the last several years, EPA has
developed hands-on experience testing
the largest heavy-duty trucks and
trailers and evaluating improvements in
tire and vehicle aerodynamic
performance. In developing the Phase 1
program, the agencies drew from this
testing and from the SmartWay
experience. In the same way, the
agencies benefitted from SmartWay in
developing the proposed Phase 2 trailer
program.
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(d) The State of California
California has established ambitious
goals for reducing GHG emissions from
heavy-duty vehicles and engines as part
of an overall plan to reduce GHG
emissions from the transportation sector
in California.30 Heavy-duty vehicles are
responsible for one-fifth of the total
GHG emissions from transportation
sources in California. In the past several
years the California Air Resources Board
(CARB) has taken a number of actions
to reduce GHG emissions from heavyduty vehicles and engines. For example,
in 2008, the CARB adopted regulations
to reduce GHG emissions from heavyduty tractors that pull box-type trailers
through improvements in tractor and
trailer aerodynamics and the use of low
rolling resistance tires.31 The tractors
and trailers subject to the CARB
regulation are required to use SmartWay
certified tractors and trailers, or retrofit
their existing fleet with SmartWay
verified technologies, consistent with
California’s state authority to regulate
both new and in-use vehicles. Recently,
in December 2013, CARB adopted
regulations that establish its own
parallel Phase 1 program with standards
consistent with EPA Phase 1 standards.
On December 5, 2014, California’s
Office of Administrative Law approved
CARB’s adoption of the Phase 1
30 See https://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/cc.htm for details
on the California Air Resources Board climate
change actions, including a discussion of Assembly
Bill 32, and the Climate Change Scoping Plan
developed by CARB, which includes details
regarding CARB’s future goals for reducing GHG
emissions from heavy-duty vehicles.
31 See https://www.arb.ca.gov/msprog/truckstop/
trailers/trailers.htm for a summary of CARB’s
‘‘Tractor-Trailer Greenhouse Gas Regulation’’.
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standards, with an effective date of
December 5, 2014.32 Complementary to
its regulatory efforts, CARB and other
California agencies are investing
significant public capital through
various incentive programs to accelerate
fleet turnover and stimulate technology
innovation within the heavy-duty
vehicle market (e.g., Air Quality
Improvement, Carl Moyer, Loan
Incentives, Lower-Emission School Bus
and Goods Movement Emission
Reduction Programs).33 And, recently,
California Governor Jerry Brown
established a target of up to 50 percent
petroleum reduction by 2030.
In addition to California’s efforts to
reduce GHG emissions that contribute to
climate change, California also faces
unique air quality challenges as
compared to many other regions of the
United States. Many areas of the state
are classified as non-attainment for both
the ozone and particulate matter
National Ambient Air Quality Standards
(NAAQS) with California having the
nation’s only two ‘‘Extreme’’ ozone nonattainment airsheds (the San Joaquin
Valley and South Coast Air Basins).34
By 2016, California must submit to EPA
its Clean Air Act State Implementation
Plans (SIPs) that demonstrate how the
2008 ozone and 2006 PM2.5 NAAQS will
be met by Clean Air Act deadlines.
Extreme ozone areas must attain the
2008 ozone NAAQS by no later than
2032 and PM2.5 moderate areas must
attain the 2006 PM2.5 standard by 2021
or, if reclassified to serious, by 2025.
Heavy-duty vehicles are responsible
today for one-third of the state’s oxides
of nitrogen (NOX) emissions. California
has estimated that the state’s South
Coast Air Basin will need nearly a 90
percent reduction in heavy-duty vehicle
NOX emissions by 2032 from 2010
levels to attain the 2008 NAAQS for
ozone. Additionally, on November 25,
2014, EPA issued a proposal to
strengthen the ozone NAAQS. If a
change to the ozone NAAQS is
finalized, California and other areas of
the country will need to identify and
implement measures to reduce NOX as
needed to complement Federal emission
reduction measures. While this section
32 See https://www.arb.ca.gov/regact/2013/
hdghg2013/hdghg2013.htm for details regarding
CARB’s adoption of the Phase 1 standards.
33 See https://www.arb.ca.gov/ba/fininfo.htm for
detailed descriptions of CARB’s mobile source
incentive programs. Note that EPA works to support
CARB’s heavy-duty incentive programs through the
West Coast Collaborative (https://
westcoastcollaborative.org/) and the Clean Air
Technology Initiative (https://www.epa.gov/
region09/cleantech/).
34 See https://www.epa.gov/airquality/greenbk/
index.html for more information on EPA’s
nonattainment designations.
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is focused on California’s regulatory
programs and air quality needs, EPA
recognizes that other states and local
areas are concerned about the
challenges of reducing NOX and
attaining, as well as maintaining, the
ozone NAAQS (further discussed in
Section VIII.D.1 below).
In order to encourage the use of lower
NOX emitting new heavy-duty vehicles
in California, in 2013 CARB adopted a
voluntary low NOX emission standard
for heavy-duty engines.35 In addition, in
2013 CARB awarded a major new
research contract to Southwest Research
Institute to investigate advanced
technologies that could reduce heavyduty vehicle NOX emissions well below
the current EPA and CARB standards.
California has long had the unique
ability among states to adopt its own
separate new motor vehicle standards
per Section 209 of the Clean Air Act
(CAA). Although section 209(a) of the
CAA expressly preempts states from
adopting and enforcing standards
relating to the control of emissions from
new motor vehicles or new motor
vehicle engines (such as state controls
for new heavy-duty engines and
vehicles) CAA section 209(b) directs
EPA to waive this preemption under
certain conditions. Under the waiver
process set out in CAA Section 209(b),
EPA has granted CARB a waiver for its
initial heavy-duty vehicle GHG
regulation.36 Even with California’s
ability under the CAA to establish its
own emission standards, EPA and
CARB have worked closely together
over the past several decades to largely
harmonize new vehicle criteria
pollutant standard programs for heavyduty engines and heavy-duty vehicles.
In the past several years EPA and
NHTSA also consulted with CARB in
the development of the Federal lightduty vehicle GHG and CAFE
rulemakings for the 2012–2016 and
2017–2025 model years.
As discussed above, California
operates under state authority to
establish its own new heavy-duty
vehicle and engine emission standards,
including standards for CO2, methane,
N2O, and hydrofluorocarbons. EPA
recognizes this independent authority,
and we also recognize the potential
35 See https://www.arb.ca.gov/regact/2013/
hdghg2013/hdghg2013.htm for a description of the
CARB optional reduced NOX emission standards for
on-road heavy-duty engines.
36 See EPA’s waiver of CARB’s heavy-duty tractortrailer greenhouse gas regulation applicable to new
2011 through 2013 model year Class 8 tractors
equipped with integrated sleeper berths (sleepercab tractors) and 2011 and subsequent model year
dry-can and refrigerated-van trailers that are pulled
by such tractors on California highways at 79 FR
46256 (August 7, 2014).
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benefits for the regulated industry if the
Federal Phase 2 standards could result
in a single, National Program that would
meet the NHTSA and EPA’s statutory
requirements to set appropriate and
maximum feasible standards, and also
be equivalent to potential future new
heavy-duty vehicle and engine GHG
standards established by CARB
(addressing the same model years as
addressed by the final Federal Phase 2
program and requiring the same
technologies).
Similarly, CARB has expressed
support in the past for a Federal heavyduty Phase 2 program that would
produce significant GHG reductions
both at the Federal level and in
California that could enable CARB to
adopt the same standards at the state
level. This is similar to CARB’s
approach for the Federal heavy-duty
Phase 1 program, and with past EPA
criteria pollutant standards for heavyduty vehicles and engines. In order to
further the opportunity for maintaining
coordinated Federal and California
standards in the Phase 2 timeframe (as
well as to benefit from different
technical expertise and perspective),
NHTSA and EPA have consulted on an
on-going basis with CARB over the past
two years as we have developed the
Phase 2 proposal. The agencies’
technical staff have shared information
on technology cost, technology
effectiveness, and feasibility with the
CARB staff. We have also received
information from CARB on these same
topics. EPA and NHTSA have also
shared preliminary results from several
of our modeling exercises with CARB as
we examined different potential levels
of stringency for the Phase 2 program.
In addition, CARB staff and managers
have also participated with EPA and
NHTSA in meetings with many external
stakeholders, in particular with vehicle
OEMs and technology suppliers.
In addition to information on GHG
emissions, CARB has also kept EPA and
NHTSA informed of the state’s need to
consider opportunities for additional
NOX emission reductions from heavyduty vehicles. CARB has asked the
agencies to consider opportunities in
the Heavy-Duty Phase 2 rulemaking to
encourage or incentivize further NOX
emission reductions, in addition to the
petroleum and GHG reductions which
would come from the Phase 2 standards.
When combined with the Phase 1
standards, the technologies the agencies
are projecting to be used to meet the
proposed GHG emission and fuel
efficiency standards would be expected
to reduce NOX emissions by over
450,000 tons in 2050 (see Section VIII).
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EPA and NHTSA believe that through
this information sharing and dialog we
will enhance the potential for the Phase
2 program to result in a National
Program that can be adopted not only by
the Federal agencies, but also by the
State of California, given the strong
interest from the regulated industry for
a harmonized State and Federal
program.
The agencies will continue to seek
input from CARB, and from all
stakeholders, throughout this
rulemaking.
(e) Environment Canada
On March 13, 2013, Environment
Canada (EPA’s Canadian counterpart)
published its own regulations to control
GHG emissions from heavy-duty
vehicles and engines, beginning with
MY 2014. These regulations are closely
aligned with EPA’s Phase 1 program to
achieve a common set of North
American standards. Environment
Canada has expressed its intention to
amend these regulations to further limit
emissions of greenhouse gases from new
on-road heavy-duty vehicles and their
engines for post-2018 MYs. As with the
development of the current regulations,
Environment Canada is committed to
continuing to work closely with EPA to
maintain a common Canada-United
States approach to regulating GHG
emissions for post-2018 MY vehicles
and engines. This approach will build
on the long history of regulatory
alignment between the two countries on
vehicle emissions pursuant to the
Canada-United States Air Quality
Agreement.37 Environment Canada has
also been of great assistance during the
development of this Phase 2 proposal.
In particular, Environment Canada
supported aerodynamic testing, and
conducted chassis dynamometer
emissions testing.
(f) Recommendations of the National
Academy of Sciences
In April 2010 as mandated by
Congress in the Energy Independence
and Security Act of 2007 (EISA), the
National Research Council (NRC) under
the National Academy of Sciences
(NAS) issued a report to NHTSA and to
Congress evaluating medium- and
heavy-duty truck fuel efficiency
improvement opportunities, titled
‘‘Technologies and Approaches to
Reducing the Fuel Consumption of
Medium- and Heavy-duty Vehicles.’’
That NAS report was far reaching in its
review of the technologies that were
available and that might become
37 https://www.ijc.org/en_/Air_Quality__
Agreement.
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available in the future to reduce fuel
consumption from medium- and heavyduty vehicles. In presenting the full
range of technical opportunities, the
report included technologies that may
not be available until 2020 or even
further into the future. The report
provided not only a valuable list of off
the shelf technologies from which the
agencies drew in developing the Phase
1 program, but also provided useful
information the agencies have
considered when developing this
second phase of regulations.
In April 2014, the NAS issued another
report: ‘‘Reducing the Fuel
Consumption and Greenhouse Gas
Emissions of Medium and Heavy-Duty
Vehicles, Phase Two, First Report.’’ This
study outlines a number of
recommendations to the U.S.
Department of Transportation and
NHTSA on technical and policy matters
to consider when addressing the fuel
efficiency of our nation’s medium- and
heavy-duty vehicles. In particular, this
report provided recommendations with
respect to:
• The Greenhouse Gas Emission Model
(GEM) simulation tool used by the
agencies to assess compliance with
vehicle standards
• Regulation of trailers
• Natural gas-fueled engines and
vehicles
• Data collection on in-use operation
As described in Sections II, IV, and
XII, the agencies are proposing to
incorporate many of these
recommendations into this proposed
Phase 2 program, especially those
recommendations relating to the GEM
simulation tool and to trailers.
B. Summary of Phase 1 Program
(1) EPA Phase 1 GHG Emission
Standards and NHTSA Phase 1 Fuel
Consumption Standards
The EPA Phase 1 GHG mandatory
standards commenced in MY 2014 and
include increased stringency for
standards applicable to MY 2017 and
later MY vehicles and engines.
NHTSA’s fuel consumption standards
are voluntary for MYs 2014 and 2015,
due to lead time requirements in EISA,
and apply on a mandatory basis
thereafter. They also increase in
stringency for MY 2017. Both agencies
have allowed voluntary early
compliance starting in MY 2013 and
encouraged manufacturers’ participation
through credit incentives.
Given the complexity of the heavyduty industry, the agencies divided the
industry into three discrete categories
for purposes of setting our respective
Phase 1 standards—combination
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tractors, heavy-duty pickups and vans,
and vocational vehicles—based on the
relative degree of homogeneity among
trucks within each category. The Phase
1 rule also include separate standards
for the engines that power combination
tractors and vocational vehicles. For
each regulatory category, the agencies
adopted related but distinct program
approaches reflecting the specific
challenges in these segments. In the
following paragraphs, we summarize
briefly EPA’s final GHG emission
standards and NHTSA’s final fuel
consumption standards for the three
regulatory categories of heavy-duty
vehicles and for the engines powering
vocational vehicles and tractors. See
Sections III, V, and VI for additional
details on the Phase 1 standards. To
respect differences in design and typical
uses that drive different technology
solutions, the agencies segmented each
regulatory class into subcategories. The
category-specific structure enabled the
agencies to set standards that
appropriately reflect the technology
available for each regulatory
subcategory of vehicles and the engines
for use in each type of vehicle. The
Phase 1 program also provided several
flexibilities, as summarized in Section
I.B(3).
The agencies are proposing to base the
Phase 2 standards on test procedures
that differ from those used for Phase 1,
including the revised GEM simulation
tool. Significant revisions to GEM are
discussed in Section II and the draft RIA
Chapter 4, and other test procedures are
discussed further in the draft RIA
Chapter 3. It is important to note that
due to these test procedure changes, the
Phase 1 standards and the proposed
Phase 2 standards are not directly
comparable in an absolute sense. In
particular, the proposed revisions to the
55 mph and 65 mph highway cruise
cycles for tractors and vocational
vehicles have the effect of making the
cycles more challenging (albeit more
representative of actual driving
conditions). We are not proposing to
apply these revisions to the Phase 1
program because doing so would
significantly change the stringency of
the Phase 1 standards, for which
manufacturers have already developed
engineering plans and are now
producing products to meet. Moreover,
the agencies intend such changes to
address a broader range of technologies
not part of the projected compliance
path for use in Phase 1.
(a) Class 7 and 8 Combination Tractors
Class 7 and 8 combination tractors
and their engines contribute the largest
portion of the total GHG emissions and
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fuel consumption of the heavy-duty
sector, approximately two-thirds, due to
their large payloads, their high annual
miles traveled, and their major role in
national freight transport. These
vehicles consist of a cab and engine
(tractor or combination tractor) and a
detachable trailer. The primary
manufacturers of combination tractors
in the United States are Daimler Trucks
North America, Navistar, Volvo/Mack,
and PACCAR. Each of the tractor
manufacturers and Cummins (an
independent engine manufacturer) also
produce heavy-duty engines used in
tractors. The Phase 1 standards require
manufacturers to reduce GHG emissions
and fuel consumption for these vehicles
and engines, which we expect them to
do through improvements in
aerodynamics and tires, reductions in
tractor weight, reduction in idle
operation, as well as engine-based
efficiency improvements.38
The Phase 1 tractor standards differ
depending on gross vehicle weight
rating (GVWR) (i.e., whether the truck is
Class 7 or Class 8), the height of the roof
of the cab, and whether it is a ‘‘day cab’’
or a ‘‘sleeper cab.’’ The agencies created
nine subcategories within the Class 7
and 8 combination tractor category
reflecting combinations of these
attributes. The agencies set Phase 1
standards for each of these subcategories
beginning in MY 2014, with more
stringent standards following in MY
2017. The standards represent an overall
fuel consumption and CO2 emissions
reduction up to 23 percent from the
tractors and the engines installed in
them when compared to a baseline MY
2010 tractor and engine.
For Phase 1, manufacturers
demonstrate compliance with the tractor
CO2 and fuel consumption standards
using a vehicle simulation tool
described in Section II. The tractor
inputs to the simulation tool in Phase 1
are the aerodynamic performance, tire
rolling resistance, vehicle speed limiter,
automatic engine shutdown, and weight
reduction. The agencies have verified,
through our own confirmatory testing,
that the values inputs into the model by
manufacturers are generally correct.
Prior to and after adopting the Phase 1
standards, the agencies worked with
manufacturers to minimize impacts of
this process on their normal business
practices.
38 We note although the standards’ stringency is
predicated on use of certain technologies, and the
agencies’ assessed the cost of the rule based on the
cost of use of those technologies, the standards can
be met by any means. Put another way, the rules
create a performance standard, and do not mandate
any particular means of achieving that level of
performance.
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In addition to the final Phase 1
tractor-based standards for CO2, EPA
adopted a separate standard to reduce
leakage of hydrofluorocarbon (HFC)
refrigerant from cabin air conditioning
(A/C) systems from combination
tractors, to apply to the tractor
manufacturer. This HFC leakage
standard is independent of the CO2
tractor standard. Manufacturers can
choose technologies from a menu of
leak-reducing technologies sufficient to
comply with the standard, as opposed to
using a test to measure performance.
Given that HFC leakage does not relate
to fuel efficiency, NHTSA did not adopt
corresponding HFC standards.
(b) Heavy-Duty Pickup Trucks and Vans
(Class 2b and 3)
Heavy-duty vehicles with a GVWR
between 8,501 and 10,000 lb are
classified as Class 2b motor vehicles.
Heavy-duty vehicles with a GVWR
between 10,001 and 14,000 lb are
classified as Class 3 motor vehicles.
Class 2b and Class 3 heavy-duty
vehicles (referred to in these rules as
‘‘HD pickups and vans’’) together emit
about 15 percent of today’s GHG
emissions from the heavy-duty vehicle
sector.39
The majority of HD pickups and vans
are 3⁄4-ton and 1-ton pickup trucks, 12and 15-passenger vans,40 and large work
vans that are sold by vehicle
manufacturers as complete vehicles,
with no secondary manufacturer making
substantial modifications prior to
registration and use. These vehicles can
also be sold as cab-complete vehicles
(i.e., incomplete vehicles that include
complete or nearly complete cabs that
are sold to secondary manufacturers).
The majority of heavy-duty pickups and
vans are produced by companies with
major light-duty markets in the United
States. Furthermore, the technologies
available to reduce fuel consumption
and GHG emissions from this segment
are similar to the technologies used on
light-duty pickup trucks, including both
engine efficiency improvements (for
gasoline and diesel engines) and vehicle
efficiency improvements. For these
reasons, EPA and NHTSA concluded
that it was appropriate to adopt GHG
standards, expressed as grams per mile,
and fuel consumption standards,
expressed as gallons per 100 miles, for
HD pickups and vans based on the
whole vehicle (including the engine),
consistent with the way these vehicles
39 EPA MOVES Model, https://www.epa.gov/otaq/
models/moves/index.htm.
40 Note that 12-passenger vans are subject to the
light-duty standards as medium-duty passenger
vehicles (MDPVs) and are not subject to this
proposal.
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have been regulated by EPA for criteria
pollutants and also consistent with the
way their light-duty counterpart
vehicles are regulated by NHTSA and
EPA. This complete vehicle approach
adopted by both agencies for HD
pickups and vans was consistent with
the recommendations of the NAS
Committee in its 2010 Report.
For the light-duty GHG and fuel
economy standards, the agencies based
the emissions and fuel economy targets
on vehicle footprint (the wheelbase
times the average track width). For those
standards, passenger cars and light
trucks with larger footprints are
assigned higher GHG and lower fuel
economy target levels reflecting their
inherent tendency to consume more fuel
and emit more GHGs per mile. For HD
pickups and vans, the agencies believe
that setting standards based on vehicle
attributes is appropriate, but have found
that a work-based metric would be a
more appropriate attribute than the
footprint attribute utilized in the lightduty vehicle rulemaking, given that
work-based measures such as towing
and payload capacities are critical
elements of these vehicles’
functionality. EPA and NHTSA
therefore adopted standards for HD
pickups and vans based on a ‘‘work
factor’’ attribute that combines their
payload and towing capabilities, with
an added adjustment for 4-wheel drive
vehicles.
Each manufacturer’s fleet average
Phase 1 standard is based on production
volume-weighting of target standards for
all vehicles, which in turn are based on
each vehicle’s work factor. These target
standards are taken from a set of curves
(mathematical functions), with separate
curves for gasoline and diesel.41
However, both gasoline and diesel
vehicles in this category are included in
a single averaging set. EPA phased in
the CO2 standards gradually starting in
the 2014 MY, at 15–20–40–60–100
percent of the MY 2018 standards
stringency level in MYs 2014–2015–
2016–2017–2018, respectively. The
phase-in takes the form of a set of target
curves, with increasing stringency in
each MY.
NHTSA allowed manufacturers to
select one of two fuel consumption
standard alternatives for MYs 2016 and
later. The first alternative defined
individual gasoline vehicle and diesel
vehicle fuel consumption target curves
that will not change for MYs 2016–2018,
and are equivalent to EPA’s 67–67–67–
41 As explained in Section XII, EPA is proposing
to recodify the Phase 1 requirements for pickups
and vans from 40 CFR 1037.104 into 40 CFR part
86, which is also the regulatory part that applies for
light-duty vehicles.
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100 percent target curves in MYs 2016–
2017–2018–2019, respectively. The
second alternative defined target curves
that are equivalent to EPA’s 40–60–100
percent target curves in MYs 2016–
2017–2018, respectively. NHTSA
allowed manufacturers to opt
voluntarily into the NHTSA HD pickup
and van program in MYs 2014 or 2015
at target curves equivalent to EPA’s
target curves. If a manufacturer chose to
opt in for one category, they would be
required to opt in for all categories. In
other words a manufacturer would be
unable to opt in for Class 2b vehicles,
but opt out for Class 3 vehicles.
EPA also adopted an alternative
phase-in schedule for manufacturers
wanting to have stable standards for
model years 2016–2018. The standards
for heavy-duty pickups and vans, like
those for light-duty vehicles, are
expressed as set of target standard
curves, with increasing stringency in
each model year. The final EPA
standards for 2018 (including a separate
standard to control air conditioning
system leakage) represent an average
per-vehicle reduction in GHG emissions
of 17 percent for diesel vehicles and 12
percent for gasoline vehicles (relative to
pre-control baseline vehicles). The
NHTSA standard will require these
vehicles to achieve up to about 15
percent reduction in fuel consumption
and greenhouse gas emissions by MY
2018 (relative to pre-control baseline
vehicles). Manufacturers demonstrate
compliance based on entire vehicle
chassis certification using the same duty
cycles used to demonstrate compliance
with criteria pollutant standards.
(c) Class 2b–8 Vocational Vehicles
Class 2b–8 vocational vehicles
include a wide variety of vehicle types,
and serve a vast range of functions.
Some examples include service for
urban delivery, refuse hauling, utility
service, dump, concrete mixing, transit
service, shuttle service, school bus,
emergency, motor homes, and tow
trucks. In Phase 1, we defined Class 2b–
8 vocational vehicles as all heavy-duty
vehicles that are not included in either
the heavy-duty pickup and van category
or the Class 7 and 8 tractor category.
EPA’s and NHTSA’s Phase 1 standards
for this vocational vehicle category
generally apply at the chassis
manufacturer level. Class 2b–8
vocational vehicles and their engines
emit approximately 20 percent of the
GHG emissions and burn approximately
21 percent of the fuel consumed by
today’s heavy-duty truck sector.42
42 EPA MOVES model, https://www.epa.gov/otaq/
models/moves/index.htm.
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The Phase 1 program for vocational
vehicles has vehicle standards and
separate engine standards, both of
which differ based on the weight class
of the vehicle into which the engine will
be installed. The vehicle weight class
groups mirror those used for the engine
standards—Classes 2b–5 (light heavyduty or LHD in EPA regulations),
Classes 6 & 7 (medium heavy-duty or
MHD in EPA regulations) and Class 8
(heavy heavy-duty or HHD in EPA
regulations). Manufacturers demonstrate
compliance with the Phase 1 vocational
vehicle CO2 and fuel consumption
standards using a vehicle simulation
tool described in Section II. The Phase
1 program for vocational vehicles
limited the simulation tool inputs to tire
rolling resistance. The model assumes
the use of a typical representative,
compliant engine in the simulation,
resulting in one overall value for CO2
emissions and one for fuel
consumption.
Engines used in vocational vehicles
are subject to separate Phase 1 enginebased standards. Optional certification
paths, for EPA and NHTSA, are also
provided to enhance the flexibilities for
vocational vehicles. Manufacturers
producing spark-ignition (or gasoline)
cab-complete or incomplete vehicles
weighing over 14,000 lbs GVWR and
below 26,001 lbs GVWR have the option
to certify to the complete vehicle
standards for heavy-duty pickup trucks
and vans rather than using the separate
engine and chassis standards for
vocational vehicles.
(d) Engine Standards
The agencies established separate
Phase 1 performance standards for the
engines manufactured for use in
vocational vehicles and Class 7 and 8
tractors.43 These engine standards vary
depending on engine size linked to
intended vehicle service class. EPA’s
engine-based CO2 standards and
NHTSA’s engine-based fuel
consumption standards are being
implemented using EPA’s existing test
procedures and regulatory structure for
criteria pollutant emissions from heavyduty engines.
The agencies also finalized a
regulatory alternative whereby a
manufacturer, for an interim period of
the 2014–2016 MYs, would have the
option to comply with a unique
standard based on a three percent
reduction from an individual engine
model’s own 2011 MY baseline level.44
43 See 76 FR 57114 explaining why NHTSA’s
authority under the Energy Independence and
Safety Act includes authority to establish separate
engine standards.
44 See 76 FR 57144.
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(e) Manufacturers Excluded From the
Phase 1 Standards
Phase 1 temporarily deferred
greenhouse gas emissions and fuel
consumption standards for any
manufacturers of heavy-duty engines,
manufacturers of combination tractors,
and chassis manufacturers for
vocational vehicles that meet the ‘‘small
business’’ size criteria set by the Small
Business Administration (SBA). 13 CFR
121.201 defines a small business by the
maximum number of employees; for
example, this is currently 1,000 for
heavy-duty vehicle manufacturing and
750 for engine manufacturing. In order
to utilize this exemption, qualifying
small businesses must submit a
declaration to the agencies. See Section
I.F.(1)(b) for a summary of how Phase 2
would apply for small businesses.
The agencies stated that they would
consider appropriate GHG and fuel
consumption standards for these entities
as part of a future regulatory action.
This includes both U.S.-based and
foreign small-volume heavy-duty
manufacturers.
(2) Costs and Benefits of the Phase 1
Program
Overall, EPA and NHTSA estimated
that the Phase 1 HD National Program
will cost the affected industry about $8
billion, while saving vehicle owners
fuel costs of nearly $50 billion over the
lifetimes of MY 2014–2018 vehicles.
The agencies also estimated that the
combined standards will reduce CO2
emissions by about 270 million metric
tons and save about 530 million barrels
of oil over the life of MY 2014 to 2018
vehicles. The agencies estimated
additional monetized benefits from CO2
reductions, improved energy security,
reduced time spent refueling, as well as
possible disbenefits from increased
driving accidents, traffic congestion,
and noise. When considering all these
factors, we estimated that Phase 1 of the
HD National Program will yield $49
billion in net benefits to society over the
lifetimes of MY 2014–2018 vehicles.
EPA estimated the benefits of reduced
ambient concentrations of particulate
matter and ozone resulting from the
Phase 1 program to range from $1.3 to
$4.2 billion in 2030.45
In total, we estimated the combined
Phase 1 standards will reduce GHG
emissions from the U.S. heavy-duty fleet
by approximately 76 million metric tons
of CO2-equivalent annually by 2030. In
its Environmental Impact Statement for
45 Note: These calendar year benefits do not
represent the same time frame as the model year
lifetime benefits described above, so they are not
additive.
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the Phase 1 rule, NHTSA also quantified
and/or discussed other potential
impacts of the program, such as the
health and environmental impacts
associated with changes in ambient
exposures to toxic air pollutants and the
benefits associated with avoided nonCO2 GHGs (methane, nitrous oxide, and
HFCs).
(3) Phase 1 Program Flexibilities
As noted above, the agencies adopted
numerous provisions designed to give
manufacturers a degree of flexibility in
complying with the Phase 1 standards.
These provisions, which are essentially
identical in structure and function in
NHTSA’s and EPA’s regulations,
enabled the agencies to consider overall
standards that are more stringent and
that will become effective sooner than
we could consider with a more rigid
program, one in which all of a
manufacturer’s similar vehicles or
engines would be required to achieve
the same emissions or fuel consumption
levels, and at the same time.46
Phase 1 included four primary types
of flexibility: Averaging, banking, and
trading (ABT) provisions; early credits;
advanced technology credits (including
hybrid powertrains); and innovative
technology credit provisions. The ABT
provisions were patterned on existing
EPA and NHTSA ABT programs
(including the light-duty GHG and fuel
economy standards) and will allow a
vehicle manufacturer to reduce CO2
emission and fuel consumption levels
further than the level of the standard for
one or more vehicles to generate ABT
credits. The manufacturer can use those
credits to offset higher emission or fuel
consumption levels in the same
averaging set, ‘‘bank’’ the credits for
later use, or ‘‘trade’’ the credits to
another manufacturer. As also noted
above, for HD pickups and vans, we
adopted a fleet averaging system very
similar to the light-duty GHG and CAFE
fleet averaging system. In both
programs, manufacturers are allowed to
carry-forward deficits for up to three
years without penalty.
The agencies provided in the ABT
programs flexibility for situations in
which a manufacturer is unable to avoid
a negative credit balance at the end of
the year. In such cases, manufacturers
are not considered to be out of
compliance unless they are unable to
46 NHTSA explained that it has greater flexibility
in the HD program to include consideration of
credits and other flexibilities in determining
appropriate and feasible levels of stringency than it
does in the light-duty CAFE program. Cf. 49 U.S.C.
32902(h), which applies to light-duty CAFE but not
heavy-duty fuel efficiency under 49 U.S.C.
32902(k).
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make up the difference in credits by the
end of the third subsequent model year.
In total, the Phase 1 program divides
the heavy-duty sector into 19
subcategories of vehicles. These
subcategories are grouped into 9
averaging sets to provide greater
opportunities in leveraging compliance.
For tractors and vocational vehicles, the
fleet averaging sets are Classes 2b
through 5, Classes 6 and 7, and Class 8
weight classes. For engines, the fleet
averaging sets are gasoline engines, light
heavy-duty diesel engines, medium
heavy-duty diesel engines, and heavy
heavy-duty diesel engines. Complete HD
pickups and vans (both spark-ignition
and compression-ignition) are the final
fleet averaging set.
As noted above, the agencies included
a restriction on averaging, banking, and
trading of credits between the various
regulatory subcategories by defining
three HD vehicle averaging sets: Light
heavy-duty (Classes 2b–5); medium
heavy-duty (Class 6–7); and heavy
heavy-duty (Class 8). This allows the
use of credits between vehicles within
the same weight class. This means that
a Class 8 day cab tractor can exchange
credits with a Class 8 high roof sleeper
tractor but not with a smaller Class 7
tractor. Also, a Class 8 vocational
vehicle can exchange credits with a
Class 8 tractor. However, we did not
allow trading between engines and
chassis. We similarly allowed for
trading among engine categories only
within an averaging set, of which there
are four: Spark-ignition engines,
compression-ignition light heavy-duty
engines, compression-ignition medium
heavy-duty engines, and compressionignition heavy heavy-duty engines.
In addition to ABT, the other primary
flexibility provisions in the Phase 1
program involve opportunities to
generate early credits, advanced
technology credits (including for use of
hybrid powertrains), and innovative
technology credits.47 For the early
credits and advanced technology
credits, the agencies adopted a 1.5 ×
multiplier, meaning that manufacturers
would get 1.5 credits for each early
credit and each advanced technology
credit. In addition, advanced technology
credits for Phase 1 can be used
anywhere within the heavy-duty sector
(including both vehicles and engines).
Put another way, as a means of
promoting this promising technology,
47 Early credits are for engines and vehicles
certified before EPA standards became mandatory,
advanced technology credits are for hybrids and/or
Rankine cycle engines, and innovative technology
credits are for other technologies not in the 2010
fleet whose benefits are not reflected using the
Phase 1 test procedures.
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the Phase 1 rule does not restrict
averaging or trading by averaging set in
this instance.
For other vehicle or engine
technologies that can reduce CO2 and
fuel consumption, but for which there
do not yet exist established methods for
quantifying reductions, the agencies
wanted to encourage the development of
such innovative technologies, and
therefore adopted special ‘‘innovative
technology’’ credits. These innovative
technology credits apply to technologies
that are shown to produce emission and
fuel consumption reductions that are
not adequately recognized on the Phase
1 test procedures and that were not yet
in widespread use in the heavy-duty
sector before MY 2010. Manufacturers
need to quantify the reductions in fuel
consumption and CO2 emissions that
the technology is expected to achieve,
above and beyond those achieved on the
existing test procedures. As with ABT,
the use of innovative technology credits
is allowed only among vehicles and
engines of the same defined averaging
set generating the credit, as described
above. The credit multiplier likewise
does not apply for innovative
technology credits.
(4) Implementation of Phase 1
Manufacturers have already begun
complying with the Phase 1 standards.
In some cases manufacturers voluntarily
chose to comply early, before
compliance was mandatory. The Phase
1 rule allows manufacturers to generate
credits for such early compliance. The
market appears to be very accepting of
the new technology, and the agencies
have seen no evidence of ‘‘pre-buy’’
effects in response to the standards. In
fact sales have been higher in recent
years than they were before Phase 1
began. Moreover, manufacturers’
compliance plans are taking advantage
of the Phase 1 flexibilities, and we have
yet to see significant non-compliance
with the standards.
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(5) Litigation on Phase 1 Rule
The D.C. Circuit recently rejected all
challenges to the agencies’ Phase 1
regulations. The court did not reach the
merits of the challenges, holding that
none of the petitioners had standing to
bring their actions, and that a challenge
to NHTSA’s denial of a rulemaking
petition could only be brought in
District Court. See Delta Construction
Co. v. EPA, 783 F. 3d 1291 (D.C. Cir.
2015), U.S. App. LEXIS 6780, F.3d (D.C.
Cir. April 24, 2015).
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C. Summary of the Proposed Phase 2
Standards and Requirements
The agencies are proposing new
standards that build on and enhance
existing Phase 1 standards, as well as
proposing the first ever standards for
certain trailers used in combination
with heavy-duty tractors. Taken
together, the proposed Phase 2 program
would comprise a set of largely
technology-advancing standards that
would achieve greater GHG and fuel
consumption savings than the Phase 1
program. As described in more detail in
the following sections, the agencies are
proposing these standards because,
based on the information available at
this time, we believe they would best
match our respective statutory
authorities when considered in the
context of available technology, feasible
reductions of emissions and fuel
consumption, costs, lead time, safety,
and other relevant factors. The agencies
request comment on all aspects of our
feasibility analysis including projections
of feasible market adoption rates and
technological effectiveness for each
technology.
The proposed Phase 2 standards
would represent a more technologyforcing 48 approach than the Phase 1
approach, predicated on use of both offthe-shelf technologies and emerging
technologies that are not yet in
widespread use. The agencies are
proposing standards for MY 2027 that
would likely require manufacturers to
make extensive use of these
technologies. For existing technologies
and technologies in the final stages of
development, we project that
manufacturers would likely apply them
to nearly all vehicles, excluding those
specific vehicles with applications or
uses that would prevent the technology
from functioning properly. We also
project as one possible compliance
pathway that manufacturers could apply
other more advanced technologies such
as hybrids and waste engine heat
recovery systems, although at lower
application rates.
Under Alternative 3, the preferred
alternative, the agencies propose to
provide ten years of lead time for
manufacturers to meet these 2027
standards, which the agencies believe is
adequate to implement the technologies
industry could use to meet the proposed
standards. For some of the more
this context, the term ‘‘technology-forcing’’
is used to distinguish standards that will effectively
require manufacturers to develop new technologies
(or to significantly improve technologies) from
standards that can be met using off-the-shelf
technology alone. Technology-forcing standards do
not require manufacturers to use any specific
technologies.
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advanced technologies production
prototype parts are not yet available,
though they are in the research stage
with some demonstrations in actual
vehicles.49 Additionally, even for the
more developed technologies, phasing
in more stringent standards over a
longer timeframe may help
manufacturers to ensure better
reliability of the technology and to
develop packages to work in a wide
range of applications. Moving more
quickly, however, as in Alternative 4,
would lead to earlier and greater
cumulative fuel savings and greenhouse
gas reductions.
As discussed later, the agencies are
also proposing new standards in MYs
2018 (trailers only), 2021, and 2024 to
ensure manufacturers make steady
progress toward the 2027 standards,
thereby achieving steady and feasible
reductions in GHG emissions and fuel
consumption in the years leading up to
the MY 2027 standards. Moving more
quickly, however, as in Alternative 4,
would lead to earlier and greater
cumulative fuel and greenhouse gas
savings.
Providing additional lead time can
often enable manufacturers to resolve
technological challenges or to find
lower cost means of meeting new
regulatory standards, effectively making
them more feasible in either case. See
generally NRDC v. EPA, 655 F. 2d 318,
329 (D.C. Cir. 1981). On the other hand,
manufacturers and/or operators may
incur additional costs if regulations
require them to make changes to their
products with less lead time than
manufacturers would normally have
when bringing a new technology to the
market or expanding the application of
existing technologies. After developing
a new technology, manufacturers
typically conduct extensive field tests to
ensure its durability and reliability in
actual use. Standards that accelerate
technology deployment can lead to
manufacturers incurring additional
costs to accelerate this development
work, or can lead to manufacturers
beginning production before such
testing can be completed. Some industry
stakeholders have informed EPA that
when manufacturers introduced new
emission control technologies (primarily
diesel particulate filters) in response to
the 2007 heavy-duty engine standards
49 ‘‘Prototype’’ as it is used here refers to
technologies that have a potentially productionfeasible design that is expected to meet all
performance, functional, reliability, safety,
manufacturing, cost and other requirements and
objectives that is being tested in laboratories and on
highways under a full range of operating
conditions, but is not yet available in production
vehicles already for sale in the market.
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they did not perform sufficient product
development validation, which led to
additional costs for operators when the
technologies required repairs or other
resulted in other operational issues in
use. Thus, the issues of costs, lead time,
and reliability are intertwined for the
agencies’ determination of whether
standards are reasonable.
Another important consideration is
the possibility of disrupting the market,
such as might happen if we were to
adopt standards that manufacturers
respond to by applying a new
technology too suddenly. Several of the
heavy-duty vehicle manufacturers,
fleets, and commercial truck dealerships
informed the agencies that for fleet
purchases that are planned more than a
year in advance, expectations of
reduced reliability, increased operating
costs, reduced residual value, or of large
increases in purchase prices can lead
the fleets to pull-ahead by several
months planned future vehicle
purchases by pre-buying vehicles
without the newer technology. In the
context of the Class 8 tractor market,
where a relatively small number of large
fleets typically purchase very large
volumes of tractors, such actions by a
small number of firms can result in large
swings in sales volumes. Such market
impacts would be followed by some
period of reduced purchases that can
lead to temporary layoffs at the factories
producing the engines and vehicles, as
well as at supplier factories, and
disruptions at dealerships. Such market
impacts also can reduce the overall
environmental and fuel consumption
benefits of the standards by delaying the
rate at which the fleet turns over. See
International Harvester v. EPA, 478 F.
2d 615, 634 (D.C. Cir. 1973). A number
of industry stakeholders have informed
EPA that the 2007 EPA heavy-duty
engine criteria pollutant standard
resulted in this pull-ahead phenomenon
for the Class 8 tractor market. The
agencies understand the potential
impact that a pull-ahead can have on
American manufacturing and labor,
dealerships, truck purchasers, and on
the program’s environmental and fuel
savings goals, and have taken steps in
the design of the proposed program to
avoid such disruption. These steps
include the following:
• Providing considerable lead time,
including two to three additional
years for the preferred alternative
compared to Alternative 4
• The standards will result in
significantly lower operating costs for
vehicle owners (unlike the 2007
standard, which increased operating
costs)
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• Phasing in the standards
• Structuring the program so the
industry will have a significant range
of technology choices to be
considered for compliance, rather
than the one or two new technologies
the OEMs pursued in 2007
• Allowing manufacturers to use
emissions averaging, banking and
trading to phase in the technology
even further
We request comment on the
sufficiency of the proposed Phase 2
structure, lead time, and stringency to
avoid market disruptions. We note an
important difference, however, between
standards for criteria pollutants, with
generally no attendant fuel savings, and
the fuel consumption/GHG emission
standards proposed today, which
provide immediate and direct financial
benefits to vehicle purchasers, who will
begin saving money on fuel costs as
soon as they begin operating the
vehicles. It would seem logical,
therefore, that vehicle purchasers (and
manufacturers) would weigh those
significant fuel savings against the
potential for increased costs that could
result from applying fuel-saving
technologies sooner than they might
otherwise choose in the absence of the
standards.
As discussed in the Phase 1 final rule,
NHTSA has certain statutory
considerations to take into account
when determining feasibility of the
preferred alternative.50 The Energy
Independence and Security Act (EISA)
states that NHTSA (in consultation with
EPA and the Secretary of Energy) shall
develop a commercial medium- and
heavy-duty fuel efficiency program
designed ‘‘to achieve the maximum
feasible improvement.’’ 51 Although
there is no definition of maximum
feasible standards in EISA, NHTSA is
directed to consider three factors when
determining what the maximum feasible
standards are. Those factors are,
appropriateness, cost-effectiveness, and
technological feasibility,52 which
modify ‘‘feasible’’ beyond its plain
meaning.
NHTSA has the broad discretion to
weigh and balance the aforementioned
factors in order to accomplish EISA’s
mandate of determining maximum
feasible standards. The fact that the
factors may often be at odds gives
NHTSA significant discretion to decide
what weight to give each of the
competing factors, policies and
concerns and then determine how to
balance them—as long as NHTSA’s
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51 49
FR 57198.
U.S.C. 32902(k).
Fmt 4701
balancing does not undermine the
fundamental purpose of the EISA:
Energy conservation, and as long as that
balancing reasonably accommodates
‘‘conflicting policies that were
committed to the agency’s care by the
statute.’’ 53
EPA also has significant discretion in
assessing, weighing, and balancing the
relevant statutory criteria. Section
202(a)(2) of the Clean Air Act requires
that the standards ‘‘take effect after such
period as the Administrator finds
necessary to permit the development
and application of the requisite
technology, giving appropriate
consideration to the cost of compliance
within such period.’’ This language
affords EPA considerable discretion in
how to weight the critical statutory
factors of emission reductions, cost, and
lead time (76 FR 57129–57130). Section
202(a) also allows (although it does not
compel) EPA to adopt technologyforcing standards. Id. at 57130.
Giving due consideration to the
agencies’ respective statutory criteria
discussed above, the agencies are
proposing these technology-forcing
standards for MY 2027. The agencies
nevertheless recognize that there is
some uncertainty in projecting costs and
effectiveness, especially for those
technologies not yet widely available,
but believe that the thresholds proposed
for consideration account for realistic
projections of technological
development discussed throughout this
notice and in the draft RIA. The
agencies are requesting comment on the
alternatives described in Section X
below. These alternatives range from
Alternative 1 (which is a no-action
alternative that serves as the baseline for
our cost and benefit analyses) to
Alternative 5 (which includes the most
stringent of the alternative standards
analyzed by the agencies). The
assessment of these different
alternatives considers the importance of
allowing manufacturers sufficient
flexibility and discretion while
achieving meaningful fuel consumption
and GHG emissions reductions across
vehicle types. The agencies look
forward to receiving comments on
questions of feasibility and long-term
projections of costs and effectiveness.
As discussed throughout this
document, the agencies believe
Alternative 4 has potential to be the
maximum feasible alternative, however,
based on the evidence currently before
us, the agencies have outstanding
questions regarding relative risks and
53 Center for Biological Diversity v. National
Highway Traffic Safety Admin., 538 F.3d 1172,
1195 (9th Cir. 2008).
52 Id.
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benefits of that option in the timeframe
envisioned. We are seeking comment on
these relative risks and benefits.
Alternative 3 is generally designed to
achieve the vehicle levels of fuel
consumption and GHG reduction that
Alternative 4 would achieve, but with
two to three years of additional leadtime—i.e., the Alternative 3 standards
would end up in the same place as the
Alternative 4 standards, but two to three
years later, meaning that manufacturers
could, in theory, apply new technology
at a more gradual pace and with greater
flexibility as discussed above. However,
Alternative 4 would lead to earlier and
greater cumulative fuel savings and
greenhouse gas reductions.
In the sections that follow, the
agencies have closely examined the
potential feasibility of Alternative 4 for
each subcategory. The agencies may
consider establishing final fuel
efficiency and GHG standards in whole
or in part in the Alternative 4 timeframe
if we deem them to be maximum
feasible and reasonable for NHTSA and
EPA, respectively. The agencies seek
comment on the feasibility of
Alternative 4, whether for some or for
all segments, including empirical data
on its appropriateness, costeffectiveness, and technological
feasibility. The agencies also note the
possibility of adoption in MY 2024 of a
standard reflecting deployment of some,
rather than all, of the technologies on
which Alternative 4 is predicated. It is
also possible that the agencies could
adopt some or all of the proposal
(Alternative 3) earlier than MY 2027,
but later than MY 2024, based especially
on lead time considerations. Any such
choices would involve a considered
weighing of the issues of feasibility of
projected technology penetration rates,
associated costs, and necessary lead
time, and would consider the
information on available technologies,
their level of performance and costs set
out in the administrative record to this
proposal.
Sections II through VI of this notice
explain the consideration that the
agencies took into account in
considering options and proposing a
preferred alternative based on balancing
of the statutory factors under 42 U.S.C.
7521(a)(1) and (2), and under 49 U.S.C.
32902(k).
(1) Carryover From Phase 1 Program and
Proposed Compliance Changes
Phase 2 will carry over many of the
compliance approaches developed for
Phase 1, with certain changes as
described below. Readers are referred to
the proposed regulatory text for much
more detail. Note that some of these
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provisions are being carried over with
revisions or additions (such as those
needed to address trailers).
(a) Certification
EPA and NHTSA are proposing to
apply the same general certification
procedures for Phase 2 as are currently
being used for certifying to the Phase 1
standards. The agencies, however, are
proposing changes to the simulation
tool used for the vocational vehicle,
tractor and trailer standards that would
allow the simulation tool to more
specifically reflect improvements to
transmissions and drivetrains.54 Rather
than the model using default values for
transmissions and drivetrains,
manufacturers would enter measured or
tested values as inputs reflecting
performance of their actual transmission
and drivetrain technologies.
The agencies apply essentially the
same process for certifying tractors and
vocational vehicles, and propose largely
to apply it to trailers as well. The Phase
1 certification process for engines used
in tractors and vocational vehicles was
based on EPA’s process for showing
compliance with the heavy-duty engine
criteria pollutant standards, and the
agencies propose to continue it for
Phase 2. Finally, we also propose to
continue certifying HD pickups and
vans using the Phase 1 vehicle
certification process, which is very
similar to the light-duty vehicle
certification process.
EPA and NHTSA are also proposing
to clarify provisions related to
confirming a manufacturer’s test data
during certification (i.e., confirmatory
testing) and verifying a manufacturer’s
vehicles are being produced to perform
as described in the application for
certification (i.e., selective enforcement
audits or SEAs). The EPA confirmatory
testing provisions for engines and
vehicles are in 40 CFR 1036.235 and
1037.235. The SEA provisions are in 40
CFR 1036.301 and 1037.301. The
NHTSA provisions are in 49 CFR
535.9(a). Note that these clarifications
would also apply for Phase 1 engines
and vehicles. The agencies welcome
suggestions for alternative approaches
that would offer the same degree of
compliance assurance for GHGs and fuel
consumption as these programs offer
with respect to EPA’s criteria pollutants.
54 As described in Section IV, although the
proposed trailer standards were developed using
the simulation tool, the agencies are proposing a
compliance structure that does not require trailer
manufacturers to actually use the compliance tool.
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(b) Averaging, Banking and Trading
(ABT)
The Phase 1 ABT provisions were
patterned on established EPA ABT
programs that have proven to work well.
In Phase 1, the agencies determined this
flexibility would provide an
opportunity for manufacturers to make
necessary technological improvements
and reduce the overall cost of the
program without compromising overall
environmental and fuel economy
objectives. We propose to generally
continue this Phase 1 approach with
few revisions for vehicles regulated in
Phase 1. As described in Section IV, we
are proposing a more limited averaging
program for trailers. The agencies see
the ABT program as playing an
important role in making the proposed
technology-advancing standards
feasible, by helping to address many
issues of technological challenges in the
context of lead time and costs. It
provides manufacturers flexibilities that
assist the efficient development and
implementation of new technologies
and therefore enable new technologies
to be implemented at a more aggressive
pace than without ABT.
ABT programs are more than just addon provisions included to help reduce
costs, and can be, as in EPA’s Title II
programs generally, an integral part of
the standard setting itself. A welldesigned ABT program can also provide
important environmental and energy
security benefits by increasing the speed
at which new technologies can be
implemented (which means that more
benefits accrue over time than with
later-commencing standards) and at the
same time increase flexibility for, and
reduce costs to, the regulated industry
and ultimately consumers. Without ABT
provisions (and other related
flexibilities), standards would typically
have to be numerically less stringent
since the numerical standard would
have to be adjusted to accommodate
issues of feasibility and available lead
time. See 75 FR 25412–25413. By
offering ABT credits and additional
flexibilities the agencies can offer
progressively more stringent standards
that help meet our fuel consumption
reduction and GHG emission goals at a
faster and more cost-effective pace.55
(i) Carryover of Phase 1 Credits and
Credit Life
The agencies propose to continue the
five-year credit life provisions from
Phase 1, and are not proposing any
55 See NRDC v. Thomas, 805 F. 2d 410, 425 (D.C.
Cir. 1986) (upholding averaging as a reasonable and
permissible means of implementing a statutory
provision requiring technology-forcing standards).
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additional restriction on the use of
banked Phase 1 credits in Phase 2. In
other words, Phase 1 credits in MY2019
could be used in Phase 1 or in Phase 2
in MYs 2021–2024. Although, as we
have already noted, the numerical
values of proposed Phase 2 standards
are not directly comparable in an
absolute sense to the existing Phase 1
standards (in other words, a given
vehicle would have a different g/tonmile emission rate when evaluated
using Phase 1 GEM than it would when
evaluated using Phase 2 GEM), we
believe that the Phase 1 and Phase 2
credits are largely equivalent. Because
the standards and emission levels are
included in a relative sense (as a
difference), it is not necessary for the
Phase 1 and Phase 2 standards to be
directly equivalent in an absolute sense
in order for the credits to be equivalent.
This is best understood by examining
the way in which credits are calculated.
For example, the credit equations in 40
CFR 1037.705 and 49 CFR 535.7
calculate credits as the product of the
difference between the standard and the
vehicle’s emission level (g/ton-mile or
gallon/1,000 ton-mile), the regulatory
payload (tons), production volume, and
regulatory useful life (miles). Phase 2
would not change payloads, production
volumes, or useful lives for tractors,
medium and heavy heavy-duty engines,
or medium and heavy heavy-duty
vocational vehicles. However, EPA is
proposing to change the regulatory
useful lives of HD pickups and vans,
light heavy-duty vocational vehicles,
spark-ignited engines, and light heavyduty compression-ignition engines.
Because useful life is a factor in
determining the value of a credit, the
agencies are proposing interim
adjustment factors to ensure banked
credits maintain their value in the
transition from Phase 1 to Phase 2.
For Phase 1, EPA aligned the useful
life for GHG emissions with the useful
life already in place for criteria
pollutants. After the Phase 1 rules were
finalized, EPA updated the useful life
for criteria pollutants as part of the Tier
3 rulemaking.56 The new useful life
implemented for Tier 3 is 150,000 miles
or 15 years, whichever occurs first. This
is the same useful life proposed in
Phase 2 for HD pickups and vans, light
heavy-duty vocational vehicles, sparkignited engines, and light heavy-duty
compression-ignition engines.57 The
numerical value of the adjustment factor
for each of these regulatory categories
56 79 FR 23492, April 28, 2014 and 40 CFR
86.1805–17.
57 NHTSA’s useful life is based on mileage and
years of duration.
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depends on the Phase 1 useful life.
These are described in detail below in
this preamble in Sections II, V, and VI.
Without these adjustment factors the
proposed changes in useful life would
effectively result in a discount of
banked credits that are carried forward
from Phase 1 to Phase 2, which is not
the intent of the changes in the useful
life. With the relatively flat deterioration
generally associated with CO2, EPA does
not believe the proposed changes in
useful life would significantly affect the
feasibility of the proposed Phase 2
standards. EPA requests comments on
the proposed changes to useful life. We
note that the primary purpose of
allowing manufacturers to bank credits
is to provide flexibility in managing
transitions to new standards. The fiveyear credit life is substantial, and would
allow credits generated in either Phase
1 or early in Phase 2 to be used for the
intended purpose. The agencies believe
longer credit life is not necessary to
accomplish this transition. Restrictions
on credit life serve to reduce the
likelihood that any manufacturer would
be able to use banked credits to disrupt
the heavy-duty vehicle market in any
given year by effectively limiting the
amount of credits that can be held.
Without this limit, one manufacturer
that saved enough credits over many
years could achieve a significant cost
advantage by using all the credits in a
single year. The agencies believe,
subject to consideration of public
comment, that allowing a five year
credit life for all credits, and as a
consequence allowing use of Phase 1
credits in Phase 2, creates appropriate
flexibility and appropriately facilitates a
smooth transition to each new level of
standards.
Although we are not proposing any
additional restrictions on the use of
Phase 1 credits, we are requesting
comment on this issue. Early
indications suggest that positive market
reception to the Phase 1 technologies
could lead to manufacturers
accumulating credit surpluses that
could be quite large at the beginning of
the proposed Phase 2 program. This
appears especially likely for tractors.
The agencies are specifically requesting
comment on the likelihood of this
happening, and whether any regulatory
changes would be appropriate in
response. For example, should the
agencies limit the amount of credits that
could be carried over from Phase1 or
limit them to the first year or two of the
Phase 2 program? Also, if we determine
that large surpluses are likely, how
should that factor into our decision on
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the feasibility of more stringent
standards in MY 2021?
(ii) Averaging Sets
EPA has historically restricted
averaging to some extent for its HD
emission standards to avoid creating
unfair competitive advantages or
environmental risks due to credits being
inconsistent. Under Phase 1, averaging,
banking and trading can only occur
within and between specified
‘‘averaging sets’’ (with the exception of
credits generated through use of
specified advanced technologies). We
propose to continue this regime in
Phase 2, to retain the existing vehicle
and engine averaging sets, and create
new trailer averaging sets. We also
propose to continue the averaging set
restrictions from Phase 1 in Phase 2.
These averaging sets for vehicles are:
• Complete pickups and vans
• Other light heavy-duty vehicles
(Classes 2b–5)
• Medium heavy-duty vehicles (Class
6–7)
• Heavy heavy-duty vehicles (Class 8)
• Long dry van trailers
• Short dry van trailers
• Long refrigerated trailers
• Short refrigerated trailers
We also propose not to allow trading
between engines and chassis, even
within the same vehicle class. Such
trading would essentially result in
double counting of emission credits,
because the same engine technology
would likely generate credits relative to
both standards. We similarly would
limit trading among engine categories to
trades within the designated averaging
sets:
• Spark-ignition engines
• Compression-ignition light heavyduty engines
• Compression-ignition medium heavyduty engines
• Compression-ignition heavy heavyduty engines
The agencies continue to believe that
restricting trading to within the same
eight classes would provide adequate
opportunities for manufacturers to make
necessary technological improvements
and to reduce the overall cost of the
program without compromising overall
environmental and fuel efficiency
objectives, and is therefore appropriate
and reasonable under EPA’s authority
and maximum feasible under NHTSA’s
authority, respectively. We do not
expect emissions from engines and
vehicles—when restricted by weight
class—to be dissimilar. We therefore
expect that the lifetime vehicle
performance and emissions levels will
be very similar across these defined
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advanced technologies to be an
important part of the Phase 2
rulemaking (76 FR 57133, September 15,
2011). The proposed Phase 2 heavy-duty
engine and vehicles standards are
premised on the use of some advanced
technologies, making them equivalent to
other fuel-saving technologies in this
context. We believe the Phase 2
standards themselves would provide
sufficient incentive to develop them.
We request comment on this issue,
especially with respect to electric
vehicle, plug-in hybrid, and fuel cell
technologies. Although the proposed
standards are premised on some use of
Rankine cycle engines and hybrid
powertrains, none of the proposed
standards are based on projected
utilization of the use of the other
advanced technologies. (Note that the
most stringent alternative is based on
some use of these technologies).
Commenters are encouraged to consider
the recently adopted light-duty program,
which includes temporary incentives for
these technologies.
(iii) Credit Deficits
The Phase 1 regulations allow
manufacturers to carry-forward deficits
for up to three years without penalty.
This is an important flexibility because
the program is designed to address the
diversity of the heavy-duty industry by
allowing manufacturers to sell a mix of
engines or vehicles that have very
different emission levels and fuel
efficiencies. Under this construct,
manufacturers can offset sales of
engines or vehicles not meeting the
standards by selling others (within the
same averaging set) that are much better
than required. However, in any given
year it is possible that the actual sales
mix will not balance out and the
manufacturer may be short of credits for
that model year. The three year
provision allows for this possibility and
creates additional compliance flexibility
to accommodate it.
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categories, and the estimated credit
calculations will fairly ensure the
expected fuel consumption and GHG
emission reductions.
We continue to believe, subject to
consideration of public comment, that
the Phase 1 averaging sets create the
most flexibility that is appropriate
without creating an unfair advantage for
manufacturers with erratically
integrated portfolios, including engines
and vehicles. See 76 FR 57240. The
agencies committed in Phase 1 to seek
public comment after credit trading
begins with manufacturers certifying in
2014 on whether broader credit trading
is more appropriate in developing the
next phase of HD regulations (76 FR
57128, September 15, 2011). The 2014
model year end of year reports will
become available to the agencies in mid2015. Therefore, the agencies will
provide information at that point. We
welcome comment on averaging set
restrictions. The agencies propose to
continue this carry forward provision
for phase 2 for the same reasons.
(c) Innovative Technology and Off-Cycle
Credits
The agencies propose to largely
continue the Phase 1 innovative
technology program but to redesignate it
as an off-cycle program for Phase 2. In
other words, beginning in MY 2021
technologies that are not fully
accounted for in the GEM simulation
tool, or by compliance dynamometer
testing would be considered ‘‘off-cycle’’,
including those technologies that may
no longer be considered innovative
technologies. However, we are not
proposing to apply this flexibility to
trailers (which were not part of Phase 1)
in order to simplify the program for
trailer manufacturers.
The agencies propose to maintain
that, in order for a manufacturer to
receive credits for Phase 2, the off-cycle
technology would still need to meet the
requirement that it was not in common
use prior to MY 2010. Although, we
have not identified specific off-cycle
technologies at this time that should be
excluded, we believe it may be prudent
to continue this requirement to avoid
the potential for manufacturers to
receive windfall credits for technologies
that they were already using before MY
2010. Nevertheless, the agencies seek
comment on whether off-cycle
technologies in the Phase 2 program
should be limited in this way. In
particular, the agencies are concerned
that because the proposed Phase 2
program would be implemented MY
2021 and may extend beyond 2027, the
agencies and manufacturers may have
difficulty in the future determining
(iv) Advanced Technology Credits
At this time, the agencies believe it is
no longer appropriate to provide extra
credit for the technologies identified as
advanced technologies for Phase 1,
although we are requesting comment on
this issue. The Phase 1 advanced
technology credits were adopted to
promote the implementation of
advanced technologies, such as hybrid
powertrains, Rankine cycle engines, allelectric vehicles, and fuel cell vehicles
(see 40 CFR 1037.150(i)). As the
agencies stated in the Phase 1 final rule,
the Phase 1 standards were not
premised on the use of advanced
technologies but we expected these
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whether an off-cycle technology was in
common use prior to MY 2010.
Moreover, because we have not
identified a single off-cycle technology
that should be excluded by this
provision at this time, we are concerned
that this approach may create an
unnecessary hindrance to the off-cycle
program.
Manufacturers would be able to carry
over an innovative technology credits
from Phase 1 into Phase 2, subject to the
same restrictions as other credits.
Manufacturers would also be able to
carry over the improvement factor (not
the credit value) of a technology, if
certain criteria were met. The agencies
would require documentation for all offcycle requests similar to those required
by EPA for its light-duty GHG program.
Additionally, NHTSA would not grant
any off-cycle credits for crash avoidance
technologies. NHTSA would also
require manufacturers to consider the
safety of off-cycle technologies and
would request a safety assessment from
the manufacturer for all off-cycle
technologies.
The agencies seek comment on these
proposed changes, as well as the
possibility of adopting aspects of the
light-duty off-cycle program.
(d) Alternative Fuels
The agencies are proposing to largely
continue the Phase 1 approach for
engines and vehicles fueled by fuels
other than gasoline and diesel.58 Phase
1 engine emission standards applied
uniquely for gasoline-fueled and dieselfueled engines. The regulations in 40
CFR part 86 implement these
distinctions for alternative fuels by
dividing engines into Otto-cycle and
Diesel-cycle technologies based on the
combustion cycle of the engine. The
agencies are, however, proposing a
small change that is described in
Section II. Under the proposed change,
we would require manufacturers to
divide their natural gas engines into
primary intended service classes, like
the current requirement for
compression-ignition engines. Any
alternative fuel-engine qualifying as a
medium heavy-duty engine or a heavy
heavy-duty engine would be subject to
all the emission standards and other
requirements that apply to compressionignition engines. Note that this small
change in approach would also apply
with respect to EPA’s criteria pollutant
program.
We are also proposing that the Phase
2 standards apply exclusively at the
58 See Section I. F. (1) (a) for a summary of certain
specific changes we are proposing or considering
for natural gas-fueled engines and vehicles.
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vehicle tailpipe. That is, compliance is
based on vehicle fuel consumption and
GHG emission reductions, and does not
reflect any so-called lifecycle emission
properties. The agencies have explained
why it is reasonable that the heavy duty
standards be fuel neutral in this manner.
See 76 FR 57123; see also 77 FR 51705
(August 24, 2012) and 77 FR 51500
(August 27, 2012). In particular, EPA
notes that there is a separate, statutorilymandated program under the Clean Air
Act which encourages use of renewable
fuels in transportation fuels, including
renewable fuel used in heavy-duty
diesel engines. This program considers
lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions
compared to petroleum fuel. NHTSA
notes that the fuel efficiency standards
are necessarily tailpipe-based, and that
a lifecycle approach would likely render
it impossible to harmonize the fuel
efficiency and GHG emission standards,
to the great detriment of our goal of
achieving a coordinated program. 77 FR
51500–51501; see also 77 FR 51705
(similar finding by EPA); see also
section I.F. (1) (a) below.
One consequence of the tailpipebased approach is that the agencies are
proposing to treat vehicles powered by
electricity the same as in Phase 1. In
Phase 1, EPA treated all electric vehicles
as having zero emissions of CO2, CH4,
and N2O (see 40 CFR 1037.150(f)).
Similarly, NHTSA adopted regulations
in Phase 1 that set the fuel consumption
standards based on the fuel consumed
by the vehicle. The agencies also did not
require emission testing for electric
vehicles in Phase 1. The agencies
considered the potential unintended
consequence of not accounting for
upstream emissions from the charging of
heavy-duty electric vehicles. In our
reassessment for Phase 2, we have not
found any all-electric heavy-duty
vehicles that have certified by 2014. As
we look to the future, we project very
limited adoption of all-electric vehicles
into the market. Therefore, we believe
that this provision is still appropriate.
Unlike the 2017–2025 light-duty rule,
which included a cap whereby
upstream emissions would be counted
after a certain volume of sales (see 77 FR
62816–62822), we believe there is no
need to propose a cap for heavy-duty
vehicles because of the small likelihood
of significant production of EV
technologies in the Phase 2 timeframe.
We welcome comments on this
approach.59 Note that we also request
59 See also Section I. C. (1) (b)(iv) above (soliciting
comment on need for advanced technology
incentive credits for heavy duty EVs).
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comment on upstream emissions for
natural gas in Section XI.
(e) Phase 1 Interim Provisions
EPA adopted several flexibilities for
the Phase 1 program (40 CFR 1036.150
and 1037.150) as interim provisions.
Because the existing regulations do not
have an end date for Phase 1, most of
these provisions did not have an
explicit end date. NHTSA adopted
similar provisions. With few exceptions,
the agencies are proposing not to apply
these provisions to Phase 2. These will
generally remain in effect for the Phase
1 program. In particular, the agencies
note that we do not propose to continue
the blanket exemption for small
manufacturers. Instead, the agencies
propose to adopt narrower and more
targeted relief.
(f) In-Use Standards
Section 202(a)(1) of the CAA specifies
that EPA is to adopt emissions
standards that are applicable for the
useful life of the vehicle and for the
engine. EPA finalized in-use standards
for the Phase 1 program whereas
NHTSA adopted an approach which
does not include these standards. For
the Phase 2 program, EPA will carryover its in-use provisions and NHTSA
proposes to adopt EPA’s useful life
requirements for its vehicle and engine
fuel consumption standards to ensure
manufacturers consider in the design
process the need for fuel efficiency
standards to apply for the same duration
and mileage as EPA standards. If EPA
determines a manufacturer fails to meet
its in-use standards, civil penalties may
be assessed. NHTSA seeks comment on
the appropriateness of seeking civil
penalties for failure to comply with its
fuel efficiency standards in these
instances. NHTSA would limit such
penalties to situations in which it
determined that the vehicle or engine
manufacturer failed to comply with the
standards.
(2) Proposed Phase 2 Standards
This section briefly summarizes the
proposed Phase 2 standards for each
category and identifies the technologies
that the agencies project would be
needed to meet the standards. Given the
large number of different regulatory
categories and model years for which
separate standards are being proposed,
the actual numerical standards are not
listed. Readers are referred to Sections
II through IV for the tables of proposed
standards.
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(a) Summary of the Proposed Engine
Standards
The agencies are proposing to
continue the basic Phase 1 structure for
the Phase 2 engine standards. There
would be separate standards and test
cycles for tractor engines, vocational
diesel engines, and vocational gasoline
engines. However, as described in
Section II, we are proposing a revised
test cycle for tractor engines to better
reflect actual in-use operation.
For diesel engines, the agencies are
proposing standards for MY 2027
requiring reduction in CO2 emissions
and fuel consumption of 4.2 percent
better than the 2017 baseline.60 We are
also proposing standards for MY 2021
and MY 2024, requiring reductions in
CO2 emissions and fuel consumption of
1.5 to 3.7 percent better than the 2017
baseline. The agencies project that these
reductions would be feasible based on
technological changes that would
improve combustion and reduce energy
losses. For most of these improvements,
the agencies project manufacturers will
begin applying them to about 50 percent
of their heavy-duty engines by 2021,
and ultimately apply them to about 90
percent of their heavy-duty engines by
2024. However, for some of these
improvements we project more limited
application rates. In particular, we
project a more limited use of waste
exhaust heat recovery systems in 2027,
projecting that about 10 percent of
tractor engines will have turbocompounding systems, and an
additional 15 percent of tractor engines
would employ Rankine-cycle waste heat
recovery. We do not project that turbocompounding or Rankine-cycle waste
heat recovery technology will be
utilized in vocational engines. Although
we see great potential for waste heat
recovery systems to achieve significant
fuel savings and CO2 emission
reductions, we are not projecting that
the technology could be available for
more wide-spread use in this time
frame.
For gasoline vocational engines, we
are not proposing new more stringent
engine standards. Gasoline engines used
in vocational vehicles are generally the
same engines as are used in the
complete HD pickups and vans in the
Class 2b and 3 weight categories. Given
the relatively small sales volumes for
gasoline-fueled vocational vehicles,
manufacturers typically cannot afford to
invest significantly in developing
separate technology for these vocational
vehicle engines. Thus, we project that
vocational gasoline engines would
60 Phase 1 standards for diesel engines will be
fully phased-in by MY 2017.
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include the same technology as would
be used to meet the pickup and van
chassis standards, and this would result
in some real world reductions in CO2
emissions and fuel consumption.
Although it is difficult at this time to
project how much improvement would
be observed during certification testing,
it seems likely that these improvements
would reduce measured CO2 emissions
and fuel consumption by about one
percent. Therefore, we are requesting
comment on finalizing a Phase 2
standard of 621 g/hp-hr for gasoline
engines (i.e., one percent more stringent
than the 2016 Phase 1 standard of 627
g/hp-hr) in MY 2027. We note that the
proposed MY 2027 vehicle standards for
gasoline-fueled vocational vehicles are
predicated in part on the use of
advanced friction reduction technology
with effectiveness over the GEM cycles
of about one percent. We also request
comment on whether not proposing
more stringent standards for gasoline
engines would create an incentive for
purchasers who would have otherwise
chosen a diesel vehicle to instead
choose a gasoline vehicle.
TABLE I–2—SUMMARY OF PHASE 1 AND PROPOSED PHASE 2 REQUIREMENTS FOR ENGINES IN COMBINATION TRACTORS
AND VOCATIONAL VEHICLES
Alternative 3–2027
(proposed standard)
Phase 1 program
Alternative 4–2024
(also under consideration)
Covered in this category .................
Engines installed in tractors and vocational chassis.
Share of HDV fuel consumption
and GHG emissions.
Combination tractors and vocational vehicles account for approximately 85 percent of fuel use and GHG
emissions in the medium and heavy duty truck sector.
Per vehicle fuel consumption and
CO2 improvement.
5%–9% improvement over MY
2010 baseline, depending vehicle application. Improvements
are in addition to improvements
from tractor and vocational vehicle standards.
Form of the standard ......................
EPA: CO2 grams/horsepower-hour and NHTSA: Gallons of fuel/horsepower-hour.
Example technology options available to help manufacturers meet
standards.
Combustion, air handling, friction
and emissions after-treatment
technology improvements.
Further technology improvements and increased use of all Phase 1
technologies, plus waste heat recovery systems for tractor engines
(e.g., turbo-compound and Rankine-cycle).
Flexibilities .......................................
ABT program which allows emissions and fuel consumption
credits to be averaged, banked,
or traded (five year credit life).
Manufacturers allowed to carryforward credit deficits for up to
three model years. Interim incentives for advanced technologies, recognition of innovative (off-cycle) technologies not
accounted for by the HD Phase
1 test procedures, and credits
for certifying early.
Same as Phase 1, except no advanced technology incentives.
Adjustment factor of 1.36 proposed for credits carried forward from
Phase 1 to Phase 2 for SI and LHD CI engines due to proposed
change in useful life.
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(b) Summary of the Proposed Tractor
Standards
As explained in Section III, the
agencies are proposing to largely
continue the Phase 1 tractor program
but to propose new standards. The
tractor standards proposed for MY 2027
would achieve up to 24 percent lower
CO2 emissions and fuel consumption
than a 2017 model year Phase 1 tractor.
The agencies project that the proposed
2027 tractor standards could be met
through improvements in the:
61 Although the agencies are proposing separate
engine standards and separate engine certification,
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4% improvement over MY 2017 for diesel engines. Note that improvements are captured in complete vehicle tractor and vocational vehicle standards, so that engine improvements and the vehicle improvement shown below are not additive.
• Engine 61 (including some use of
waste heat recovery systems)
• Transmission
• Driveline
• Aerodynamic design
• Tire rolling resistance
• Idle performance
• Other accessories of the tractor.
The agencies’ evaluation shows that
some of these technologies are available
today, but have very low adoption rates
on current vehicles, while others will
require some lead time for development.
The agencies are proposing to enhance
the GEM vehicle simulation tool to
recognize these technologies, as
described in Section II.C.
We have also determined that there is
sufficient lead time to introduce many
of these tractor and engine technologies
into the fleet at a reasonable cost
starting in the 2021 model year. The
proposed 2021 model year standards for
combination tractors and engines would
achieve up to 13 percent lower CO2
emissions and fuel consumption than a
2017 model year Phase 1 tractor, and the
2024 model year standards would
achieve up to 20 percent lower CO2
emissions and fuel consumption.
engine improvements would also be reflected in the
vehicle certification process. Thus, it is appropriate
to also consider engine improvements in the
context of the vehicle standards.
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40161
TABLE I–3—SUMMARY OF PHASE 1 AND PROPOSED PHASE 2 REQUIREMENTS FOR CLASS 7 AND CLASS 8 COMBINATION
TRACTORS
Phase 1 program
Alternative 3—2027 (proposed
standard)
Alternative 4—2024
(also under consideration)
Covered in this category .................
Tractors that are designed to pull trailers and move freight.
Share of HDV fuel consumption
and GHG emissions.
Combination tractors and their engines account for approximately two thirds of fuel use and GHG emissions in the medium and heavy duty truck sector.
Per vehicle fuel consumption and
CO2 improvement.
10%–23% improvement over MY
2010 baseline, depending on
tractor category. Improvements
are in addition to improvements
from engine standards.
Form of the standard ......................
18%–24% improvement over MY 2017 standards.
EPA: CO2 grams/ton payload mile and NHTSA: Gallons of fuel/1,000 ton payload mile.
Example technology options available to help manufacturers meet
standards.
Aerodynamic drag improvements;
low rolling resistance tires; high
strength steel and aluminum
weight reduction; extended idle
reduction; and speed limiters.
Further technology improvements and increased use of all Phase 1
technologies, plus engine improvements, improved and automated
transmissions and axles, powertrain optimization, tire inflation systems, and predictive cruise control (depending on tractor type).
Flexibilities .......................................
ABT program which allows emissions and fuel consumption
credits to be averaged, banked,
or traded (five year credit life).
Manufacturers allowed to carryforward credit deficits for up to
three model years. Interim incentives for advanced technologies, recognition of innovative (off-cycle) technologies not
accounted for by the HD Phase
1 test procedures, and credits
for certifying early.
Same as Phase 1, except no extra credits for advanced technologies
or early certification.
(c) Summary of the Proposed Trailer
Standards
This proposed rule is a set of GHG
emission and fuel consumption
standards for manufacturers of new
trailers that are used in combination
with tractors that would significantly
reduce CO2 and fuel consumption from
combination tractor-trailers nationwide
over a period of several years. As
described in Section IV, there are
numerous aerodynamic and tire
technologies available to manufacturers
to accomplish these proposed standards.
For the most part, these technologies
have already been introduced into the
market to some extent through EPA’s
voluntary SmartWay program. However,
adoption is still somewhat limited.
The agencies are proposing
incremental levels of Phase 2 standards
that would apply beginning in MY 2018
and be fully phased-in by 2027. These
standards are predicated on use of
aerodynamic and tire improvements,
with trailer OEMs making incrementally
greater improvements in MYs 2021 and
2024 as standard stringency increases in
each of those model years. EPA’s GHG
emission standards would be mandatory
beginning in MY 2018, while NHTSA’s
fuel consumption standards would be
voluntary beginning in MY 2018, and be
mandatory beginning in MY 2021.
As described in Section XV.D and
Chapter 12 of the draft RIA, the agencies
are proposing special provisions to
minimize the impacts on small trailer
manufacturers. These provisions have
been informed by and are largely
consistent with recommendations
coming from the SBAR Panel that EPA
conducted pursuant to Section 609(b) of
the Regulatory Flexibility Act (RFA).
Broadly, these provisions provide
additional lead time for small
manufacturers, as well as simplified
testing and compliance requirements.
The agencies are also requesting
comment on whether there is a need for
additional provisions to address small
business issues.
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TABLE I–4—SUMMARY OF PROPOSED PHASE 2 REQUIREMENTS FOR TRAILERS
Phase 1 program
Alternative 3—2027 (proposed
standard)
Alternative 4—2024
(also under consideration)
Covered in this category .................
Trailers hauled by low, mid, and high roof day and sleeper cab tractors, except those qualified as logging,
mining, stationary or heavy-haul.
Share of HDV fuel consumption
and GHG emissions.
Trailers are modeled together with combination tractors and their engines. Together, they account for approximately two thirds of fuel use and GHG emissions in the medium and heavy duty truck sector.
Per vehicle fuel consumption and
CO2 improvement.
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N/A ...............................................
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Between 3% and 8% improvement over MY 2017 baseline, depending
on the trailer type.
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TABLE I–4—SUMMARY OF PROPOSED PHASE 2 REQUIREMENTS FOR TRAILERS—Continued
Phase 1 program
Alternative 3—2027 (proposed
standard)
Alternative 4—2024
(also under consideration)
Form of the standard ......................
N/A ...............................................
EPA: CO2 grams/ton payload mile and NHTSA: Gallons/1,000 ton
payload mile.
Example technology options available to help manufacturers meet
standards.
N/A ...............................................
Low rolling resistance tires, automatic tire inflation systems, weight reduction for most trailers, aerodynamic improvements such as side
and rear fairings, gap closing devices, and undercarriage treatment
for box-type trailers (e.g., dry and refrigerated vans).
Flexibilities .......................................
N/A ...............................................
One year delay in implementation for small businesses, trailer manufacturers may use pre-approved devices to avoid testing, averaging
program for manufacturers of dry and refrigerated box trailers.
(d) Summary of the Proposed Vocational
Vehicle Standards
As explained in Section V, the
agencies are proposing to revise the
Phase 1 vocational vehicle program and
to propose new standards. These
proposed standards also reflect further
sub-categorization from Phase 1, with
separate proposed standards based on
mode of operation: Urban, regional, and
multi-purpose. The agencies are also
proposing alternative standards for
emergency vehicles.
The agencies project that the
proposed vocational vehicle standards
could be met through improvements in
the engine, transmission, driveline,
lower rolling resistance tires, workday
idle reduction technologies, and weight
reduction, plus some application of
hybrid technology. These are described
in Section V of this preamble and in
Chapter 2.9 of the draft RIA. These MY
2027 standards would achieve up to 16
percent lower CO2 emissions and fuel
consumption than MY 2017 Phase 1
standards. The agencies are also
proposing revisions to the compliance
regime for vocational vehicles. These
include: The addition of an idle cycle
that would be weighted along with the
other drive cycles; and revisions to the
vehicle simulation tool to reflect
specific improvements to the engine,
transmission, and driveline.
Similar to the tractor program, we
have determined that there is sufficient
lead time to introduce many of these
new technologies into the fleet starting
in MY 2021. Therefore, we are
proposing new standards for MY 2021
and 2024. Based on our analysis, the
MY 2021 standards for vocational
vehicles would achieve up to 7 percent
lower CO2 emissions and fuel
consumption than a MY 2017 Phase 1
vehicle, on average, and the MY 2024
standards would achieve up to 11
percent lower CO2 emissions and fuel
consumption.
In Phase 1, EPA adopted air
conditioning (A/C) refrigerant leakage
standards for tractors, as well as for
heavy-duty pickups and vans, but not
for vocational vehicles. For Phase 2,
EPA believes that it would be feasible to
apply similar A/C refrigerant leakage
standards for vocational vehicles,
beginning with the 2021 model year.
The process for certifying that low
leakage components are used would
follow the system currently in place for
comparable systems in tractors.
TABLE I–5—SUMMARY OF PHASE 1 AND PROPOSED PHASE 2 REQUIREMENTS FOR VOCATIONAL VEHICLE CHASSIS
Phase 1 program
Alternative 3—2027 (proposed
standard)
Alternative 4—2024
(also under consideration)
Covered in this category .................
Class 2b–8 chassis that are intended for vocational services such as delivery vehicles, emergency vehicles, dump truck, tow trucks, cement mixer, refuse trucks, etc., except those qualified as off-highway
vehicles.
.....................................................
Because of sector diversity, vocational vehicle chassis are segmented into Light, Medium and Heavy Duty
vehicle categories and for Phase 2 each of these segments are further subdivided using three duty
cycles: Regional, Multi-purpose, and Urban.
Share of HDV fuel consumption
and GHG emissions.
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Per vehicle fuel consumption and
CO2 improvement.
Vocational vehicles account for approximately 20 percent of fuel use and GHG emissions in the medium
and heavy duty truck sector categories.
2% improvement over MY 2010
baseline.
Improvements are in addition to
improvements
from
engine
standards.
Form of the standard ......................
Example technology options available to help manufacturers meet
standards.
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Up to 16% improvement over MY 2017 standards.
EPA: CO2 grams/ton payload mile and NHTSA: Gallons of fuel/1,000 ton payload mile.
Low rolling resistance tires ..........
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Further technology improvements and increased use of Phase 1 technologies, plus improved engines, transmissions and axles,
powertrain optimization, weight reduction, hybrids, and workday idle
reduction systems.
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40163
TABLE I–5—SUMMARY OF PHASE 1 AND PROPOSED PHASE 2 REQUIREMENTS FOR VOCATIONAL VEHICLE CHASSIS—
Continued
Phase 1 program
Flexibilities .......................................
.....................................................
ABT program which allows emissions and fuel consumption
credits to be averaged, banked,
or traded (five year credit life).
Manufacturers allowed to carryforward credit deficits for up to
three model years. Interim incentives for advanced technologies, recognition of innovative (off-cycle) technologies not
accounted for by the HD Phase
1 test procedures, and credits
for certifying early.
..................................................
(e) Summary of the Proposed HeavyDuty Pickup and Van Standards
The agencies are proposing to adopt
new Phase 2 GHG emission and fuel
consumption standards for heavy-duty
Alternative 3—2027 (proposed
standard)
Alternative 4—2024
(also under consideration)
Same as Phase 1, except no advanced technology incentives.
Chassis intended for emergency vehicles have proposed Phase 2
standards based only on Phase 1 technologies, and may continue
to certify using a simplified Phase 1-style GEM tool. Adjustment factor of 1.36 proposed for credits carried forward from Phase 1 to
Phase 2 due to proposed change in useful life.
pickups and vans that would be applied
in largely the same manner as the Phase
1 standards. These standards are based
on the extensive use of most known and
proven technologies, and could result in
some use of strong hybrid powertrain
technology. These proposed standards
would commence in MY 2021. Overall,
the proposed standards are 16 percent
more stringent by 2027.
TABLE I–6—SUMMARY OF PHASE 1 AND PROPOSED PHASE 2 REQUIREMENTS FOR HD PICKUPS AND VANS
Phase 1 program
Alternative 3—2027 (proposed
standard)
Alternative 4—2025
(also under consideration)
Covered in this category .................
Class 2b and 3 complete pickup trucks and vans, including all work vans and 15-passenger vans but excluding 12-passenger vans which are subject to light-duty standards.
Share of HDV fuel consumption
and GHG emissions.
HD pickups and vans account for approximately 15% of fuel use and GHG emissions in the medium and
heavy duty truck sector.
15% improvement over MY 2010
baseline for diesel vehicles,
and 10% improvement for gasoline vehicles.
Form of the standard ......................
Phase 1 standards are based upon a ‘‘work factor’’ attribute that combines truck payload and towing capabilities, with an added adjustment for 4-wheel drive vehicles. There are separate target curves for diesel-powered and gasoline-powered vehicles. As proposed, the Phase 2 standards would be based on
the same approach.
Example technology options available to help manufacturers meet
standards.
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Per vehicle fuel consumption and
CO2 improvement.
Engine
improvements,
transmission improvements, aerodynamic drag improvements,
low rolling resistance tires,
weight reduction, and improved
accessories.
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16% improvement over MY 2018–2020 standards.
Further technology improvements and increased use of all Phase 1
technologies, plus engine stop-start, and powertrain hybridization
(mild and strong).
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TABLE I–6—SUMMARY OF PHASE 1 AND PROPOSED PHASE 2 REQUIREMENTS FOR HD PICKUPS AND VANS—Continued
Phase 1 program
Flexibilities .......................................
Two optional phase-in schedules;
ABT program which allows
emissions and fuel consumption credits to be averaged,
banked, or traded (five year
credit life). Manufacturers allowed to carry-forward credit
deficits for up to three model
years. Interim incentives for advanced technologies, recognition of innovative (off-cycle)
technologies not accounted for
by the HD Phase 1 test procedures, and credits for certifying
early.
(f) Summary of the Proposed Final
Numeric Standards by Regulatory
Subcategory
Table I–7 lists the proposed final (i.e.,
MY 2027) numeric standards by
Alternative 3—2027 (proposed
standard)
Alternative 4—2025
(also under consideration)
Proposed to be same as Phase 1, with phase-in schedule based on
year-over-year increase in stringency. Adjustment factor of 1.25 proposed for credits carried forward from Phase 1 to Phase 2 due to
proposed change in useful life. Proposed cessation of advanced
technology incentives in 2021 and continuation of off-cycle credits.
regulatory subcategory for tractors,
trailers, vocational vehicles and engines.
Note that these are the same final
numeric standards for Alternative 4, but
for Alternative 4 these would be
implemented in MY 2024 instead of MY
2027.
TABLE I–7—PROPOSED FINAL (MY 2027) NUMERIC STANDARDS BY REGULATORY SUBCATEGORY
CO2 grams per
ton-mile (for engines
CO2 grams per brake
horsepower-hour)
ebenthall on DSK3VPTVN1PROD with MISCELLANEOUS
Regulatory subcategory
Tractors:.
Class 7 Low Roof Day Cab ..............................................................................................
Class 7 Mid Roof Day Cab ..............................................................................................
Class 7 High Roof Day Cab .............................................................................................
Class 8 Low Roof Day Cab ..............................................................................................
Class 8 Mid Roof Day Cab ..............................................................................................
Class 8 High Roof Day Cab .............................................................................................
Class 8 Low Roof Sleeper Cab ........................................................................................
Class 8 Mid Roof Sleeper Cab ........................................................................................
Class 8 High Roof Sleeper Cab .......................................................................................
Trailers:
Long Dry Box Trailer ........................................................................................................
Short Dry Box Trailer ........................................................................................................
Long Refrigerated Box Trailer ..........................................................................................
Short Refrigerated Box Trailer .........................................................................................
Vocational Diesel:
LHD Urban ........................................................................................................................
LHD Multi-Purpose ...........................................................................................................
LHD Regional ...................................................................................................................
MHD Urban .......................................................................................................................
MHD Multi-Purpose ..........................................................................................................
MHD Regional ..................................................................................................................
HHD Urban .......................................................................................................................
HHD Multi-Purpose ...........................................................................................................
HHD Regional ...................................................................................................................
Vocational Gasoline:
LHD Urban ........................................................................................................................
LHD Multi-Purpose ...........................................................................................................
LHD Regional ...................................................................................................................
MHD Urban .......................................................................................................................
MHD Multi-Purpose ..........................................................................................................
MHD Regional ..................................................................................................................
HHD Urban .......................................................................................................................
HHD Multi-Purpose ...........................................................................................................
HHD Regional ...................................................................................................................
Diesel Engines:
LHD Vocational .................................................................................................................
MHD Vocational ................................................................................................................
HHD Vocational ................................................................................................................
MHD Tractor .....................................................................................................................
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Fuel consumption gallon
per 1,000 ton-mile (for
engines gallons per 100
brake horsepower-hour)
87
96
96
70
76
76
62
69
67
77
140
80
144
7.5639
13.7525
7.8585
14.1454
272
280
292
172
174
170
182
183
174
26.7191
27.5049
28.6837
16.8959
17.0923
16.6994
17.8782
17.9764
17.0923
299
308
321
189
191
187
196
198
188
33.6446
34.6574
36.1202
21.2670
21.4921
21.0420
22.0547
22.2797
21.1545
553
553
533
466
13JYP2
8.5462
9.4303
9.4303
6.8762
7.4656
7.4656
6.0904
6.7780
6.5815
5.4322
5.4322
5.2358
4.5776
Federal Register / Vol. 80, No. 133 / Monday, July 13, 2015 / Proposed Rules
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TABLE I–7—PROPOSED FINAL (MY 2027) NUMERIC STANDARDS BY REGULATORY SUBCATEGORY—Continued
CO2 grams per
ton-mile (for engines
CO2 grams per brake
horsepower-hour)
Regulatory subcategory
HHD Tractor .....................................................................................................................
ebenthall on DSK3VPTVN1PROD with MISCELLANEOUS
Similar to Phase 1 the agencies are
proposing for Phase 2 a set of
continuous equation-based standards for
HD pickups and vans. Please refer to
Section 6, subsection B.1, for a
description of these standards,
including associated tables and figures.
D. Summary of the Costs and Benefits of
the Proposed Rule
This section summarizes the projected
costs and benefits of the proposed
NHTSA fuel consumption and EPA
GHG emission standards, along with
those of Alternative 4. These projections
helped to inform the agencies’ choices
among the alternatives considered,
along with other relevant factors, and
NHTSA’s Draft Environmental Impact
Statement (DEIS). See Sections VII
through IX and the Draft RIA for
additional details about these
projections.
For this rule, the agencies conducted
coordinated and complementary
analyses using two analytical methods
for the heavy-duty pickup and van
segment by employing both DOT’s
CAFE model and EPA’s MOVES model.
The agencies used EPA’s MOVES model
to estimate fuel consumption and
emissions impacts for tractor-trailers
(including the engine that powers the
tractor), and vocational vehicles
(including the engine that powers the
vehicle). Additional calculations were
performed to determine corresponding
monetized program costs and benefits.
For heavy-duty pickups and vans, the
agencies performed complementary
analyses, which we refer to as ‘‘Method
A’’ and ‘‘Method B.’’ In Method A, the
CAFE model was used to project a
pathway the industry could use to
comply with each regulatory alternative
and the estimated effects on fuel
consumption, emissions, benefits and
costs. In Method B, the CAFE model
was used to project a pathway the
industry could use to comply with each
regulatory alternative, along with
resultant impacts on per vehicle costs,
and the MOVES model was used to
calculate corresponding changes in total
fuel consumption and annual emissions.
Additional calculations were performed
to determine corresponding monetized
program costs and benefits. NHTSA
considered Method A as its central
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analysis and Method B as a
supplemental analysis. EPA considered
the results of both methods. The
agencies concluded that both methods
led the agencies to the same conclusions
and the same selection of the proposed
standards. See Section VII for additional
discussion of these two methods.
(1) Reference Case Against Which Costs
and Benefits Are Calculated
The No Action Alternative for today’s
analysis, alternatively referred to as the
‘‘baseline’’ or ‘‘reference case,’’ assumes
that the agencies would not issue new
rules regarding MD/HD fuel efficiency
and GHG emissions. This is the baseline
against which costs and benefits for the
proposed standards are calculated. The
reference case assumes that model year
2018 standards would be extended
indefinitely and without change.
The agencies recognize that if the
proposed rule is not adopted,
manufacturers will continue to
introduce new heavy-duty vehicles in a
competitive market that responds to a
range of factors. Thus manufacturers
might have continued to improve
technologies to reduce heavy-duty
vehicle fuel consumption. Thus, as
described in Section VII, both agencies
fully analyzed the proposed standards
and the regulatory alternatives against
two reference cases. The first case uses
a baseline that projects very little
improvement in new vehicles in the
absence of new Phase 2 standards, and
the second uses a more dynamic
baseline that projects more significant
improvements in vehicle fuel efficiency.
NHTSA considered its primary analysis
to be based on the more dynamic
baseline, where certain cost-effective
technologies are assumed to be applied
by manufacturers to improve fuel
efficiency beyond the Phase 1
requirements in the absence of new
Phase 2 standards. EPA considered both
reference cases. The results for all of the
regulatory alternatives relative to both
reference cases, derived via the same
methodologies discussed in this section,
are presented in Section X of the
preamble.
The agencies chose to analyze these
two different baselines because the
agencies recognize that there are a
number of factors that create uncertainty
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441
Fuel consumption gallon
per 1,000 ton-mile (for
engines gallons per 100
brake horsepower-hour)
4.3320
in projecting a baseline against which to
compare the future effects of the
proposed action and the remaining
alternatives. The composition of the
future fleet—such as the relative
position of individual manufacturers
and the mix of products they each
offer—cannot be predicted with
certainty at this time. Additionally, the
heavy-duty vehicle market is diverse, as
is the range of vehicle purchasers.
Heavy-duty vehicle manufacturers have
reported that their customers’
purchasing decisions are influenced by
their customers’ own determinations of
minimum total cost of ownership,
which can be unique to a particular
customer’s circumstances. For example,
some customers (e.g., less-thantruckload or package delivery operators)
operate their vehicles within a limited
geographic region and typically own
their own vehicle maintenance and
repair centers within that region. These
operators tend to own their vehicles for
long time periods, and sometimes for
the entire service life of the vehicle.
Their total cost of ownership is
influenced by their ability to better
control their own maintenance costs,
and thus they can afford to consider fuel
efficiency technologies that have longer
payback periods, outside of the vehicle
manufacturer’s warranty period. Other
customers (e.g. truckload or long-haul
operators) tend to operate cross-country,
and thus must depend upon truck
dealer service centers for repair and
maintenance. Some of these customers
tend to own their vehicles for about four
to seven years, so that they typically do
not have to pay for repair and
maintenance costs outside of either the
manufacturer’s warranty period or some
other extended warranty period. Many
of these customers tend to require
seeing evidence of fuel efficiency
technology payback periods on the
order of 18 to 24 months before
seriously considering evaluating a new
technology for potential adoption
within their fleet (NAS 2010, Roeth et
al. 2013, Klemick et al. 2014).
Purchasers of HD pickups and vans
wanting better fuel efficiency tend to
demand that fuel consumption
improvements pay back within
approximately one to three years, but
some HD pickup and van owners accrue
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relatively few vehicle miles traveled per
year, such that they may be less likely
to adopt new fuel efficiency
technologies, while other owners who
use their vehicle(s) with greater
intensity may be even more willing to
pay for fuel efficiency improvements.
Regardless of the type of customer, their
determination of minimum total cost of
ownership involves the customer
balancing their own unique
circumstances with a heavy-duty
vehicle’s initial purchase price,
availability of credit and lease options,
expectations of vehicle reliability, resale
value and fuel efficiency technology
payback periods. The degree of the
incentive to adopt additional fuel
efficiency technologies also depends on
customer expectations of future fuel
prices, which directly impacts customer
payback periods. Purchasing decisions
are not based exclusively on payback
period, but also include the
considerations discussed above and in
Section X.A.1. For the baseline analysis,
the agencies use payback period as a
proxy for all of these considerations,
and therefore the payback period for the
baseline analysis is shorter than the
payback period industry uses as a
threshold for the further consideration
of a technology. The agencies request
comment on which alternative baseline
scenarios would be most appropriate for
analysis in the final rule. Specifically,
the agencies request empirical evidence
to support whether the agencies should
use for the final rule the central cases
used in this proposal, alternative
sensitivity cases such as those
mentioned below, or some other
scenarios. See Section X.A.1of this
Preamble and Chapter 11 of the draft
RIA for a more detailed discussion of
baselines.
As part of a sensitivity analysis,
additional baseline scenarios were also
evaluated for HD pickups and vans,
including baseline payback periods of
12, 18 and 24 months. See Section VI of
this Preamble and Chapter 10 of the
draft RIA for a detailed discussion of
these additional scenarios.
(2) Costs and Benefits Projected for the
Standards Being Proposed and
Alternative 4
The tables below summarize the
benefits and costs for the program in
two ways: First, from the perspective of
a program designed to improve the
Nation’s energy security and to conserve
energy by improving fuel efficiency and
then from the perspective of a program
designed to reduce GHG emissions. The
individual categories of benefits and
costs presented in the tables below are
defined more fully and presented in
more detail in Chapter 8 of the draft
RIA.
Table I–8 shows benefits and costs for
the proposed standards and Alternative
4 from the perspective of a program
designed to improve the Nation’s energy
security and conserve energy by
improving fuel efficiency. From this
viewpoint, technology costs occur when
the vehicle is purchased. Fuel savings
are counted as benefits that occur over
the lifetimes of the vehicles produced
during the model years subject to the
Phase 2 standards as they consume less
fuel.
TABLE I–8—LIFETIME FUEL SAVINGS, GHG REDUCTIONS, BENEFITS, COSTS AND NET BENEFITS FOR MODEL YEARS
2018–2029 VEHICLES USING ANALYSIS METHOD A
[Billions of 2012$] a b
Alternative
3
Preferred
Category
7% Discount
rate
Fuel Reductions (Billion Gallons) ....................................................
GHG reductions (MMT CO2 eq) ......................................................
4
3% Discount
rate
7% Discount
rate
72.2–76.7
974–1,034
3% Discount
rate
81.9–86.7
1,102–1,166
25.0–25.4
1.0–1.1
4.5–4.7
16.8–17.1
0.6–0.6
2.6–2.8
32.9–34.3
1.0–1.1
4.7–4.9
22.5–23.5
0.6–0.7
2.7–2.8
Total Costs ...............................................................................
Fuel Savings (valued at pre-tax prices) ...........................................
Savings from Less Frequent Refueling ...........................................
Economic Benefits from Additional Vehicle Use .............................
Reduced Climate Damages from GHG Emissions c .......................
Reduced Health Damages from Non-GHG Emissions ...................
Increased U.S. Energy Security ......................................................
30.5–31.1
165.1–175.1
2.9–3.1
14.7–15.1
32.9–34.9
37.2–38.8
8.1–8.9
20.0–20.5
89.2–94.2
1.5–1.6
8.2–8.4
32.9–34.9
20–20.7
4.3–4.7
38.7–40.8
187.4–198.3
3.4–3.6
15.0–15.4
37.3–39.4
40.9–42.5
9.3–10.2
25.8–27.0
102.0–107.5
1.8–2.0
8.4–8.6
37.3–39.4
22.1–22.8
5.0–5.5
Total Benefits ............................................................................
261–276
156–165
293–309
177–186
Net Benefits .......................................................................
ebenthall on DSK3VPTVN1PROD with MISCELLANEOUS
Vehicle Program: Technology and Indirect Costs, Normal Profit on
Additional Investments .................................................................
Additional Routine Maintenance ......................................................
Congestion, Accidents, and Noise from Increased Vehicle Use .....
231–245
136–144
255–269
151–159
Notes:
a For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
b Range reflects two reference case assumptions 1a and 1b.
c Benefits and net benefits use the 3 percent global average SCC value applied only to CO emissions; GHG reductions include CO , CH ,
2
2
4
N2O and HFC reductions, and include benefits to other nations as well as the U.S. See Draft RIA Chapter 8.5 and Preamble Section IX.G for further discussion.
Table I–9 shows benefits and cost
from the perspective of reducing GHG.
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Federal Register / Vol. 80, No. 133 / Monday, July 13, 2015 / Proposed Rules
TABLE I–9—LIFETIME FUEL SAVINGS, GHG REDUCTIONS, BENEFITS, COSTS AND NET BENEFITS FOR MODEL YEARS
2018–2029 VEHICLES USING ANALYSIS METHOD B
[Billions of 2012$] a b
Alternative
3
Preferred
Category
7% Discount
rate
Fuel Reductions (Billion Gallons) ................................................................
GHG reductions (MMT CO2eq) ...................................................................
Vehicle Program (e.g., technology and indirect costs, normal profit on
additional investments).
Additional Routine Maintenance .................................................................
Fuel Savings (valued at pre-tax prices) ......................................................
Energy Security ...........................................................................................
Congestion, Accidents, and Noise from Increased Vehicle Use ................
Savings from Less Frequent Refueling ......................................................
Economic Benefits from Additional Vehicle Use ........................................
Benefits from Reduced Non-GHG Emissions c ...........................................
3% Discount
rate
7% Discount
rate
70.2 to 75.8
960 to 1,040
¥$24.6 to
¥$25.1
¥$1.1 to
¥$1.1
$159 to $171
$8.5 to $9.3
¥$4.2 to
¥$4.3
$2.8 to $3.1
$14.8 to $14.9
$37.4 to $39.7
Reduced Climate Damages from GHG Emissions d ..................................
Net Benefits .........................................................................................
4
79.7 to 85.4
1,090 to 1,160
¥$16.3 to
¥$16.6
¥$0.6 to
¥$0.6
$84.2 to $90.1
$4.4 to $4.8
¥$2.4 to
¥$2.4
$1.4 to $1.6
$8.2 to $8.2
$17.7 to $18.8
¥$33.1 to
¥$33.5
¥$1.1 to
¥$1.1
$181 to $193
$9.8 to $10.6
¥$4.2 to
¥$4.3
$3.3 to $3.6
$14.7 to $14.8
$41.2 to $43.5
$31.6 to $34.0
$224 to $242
3% Discount
rate
¥$22.2 to
¥$22.5
¥$0.6 to
¥$0.6
$96.5 to $103
$5.2 to $5.6
¥$2.4 to
¥$2.4
$1.7 to $1.9
$8.1 to $8.1
$19.7 to $20.7
$35.9 to $38.3
$128 to $138
$248 to $265
$142 to $152
Notes:
a For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
b Range reflects two baseline assumptions 1a and 1b.
c Range reflects both the two baseline assumptions 1a and 1b using the mid-point of the low and high $/ton estimates for calculating benefits.
d Benefits and net benefits use the 3 percent average SCCO2 value applied only to CO emissions; GHG reductions include CO , CH and
2
2
4
N2O reductions.
Table I–10 breaks down by vehicle
category the benefits and costs for the
proposed standards and Alternative 4
using the Method A analytical
approach. For additional detail on per-
vehicle break-downs of costs and
benefits, please see Chapter 10.
TABLE I–10—PER VEHICLE CATEGORY LIFETIME FUEL SAVINGS, GHG REDUCTIONS, BENEFITS, COSTS AND NET BENEFITS FOR MODEL YEARS 2018–2029 VEHICLES USING ANALYSIS METHOD A (BILLIONS OF 2012$), RELATIVE TO
BASELINE 1b a
Alternative
3
Preferred
Key costs and benefits by vehicle category
7% Discount
rate
Tractors, Including Engines, and Trailers:.
Fuel Reductions (Billion Gallons) .............................................
GHG Reductions (MMT CO2 eq) ..............................................
ebenthall on DSK3VPTVN1PROD with MISCELLANEOUS
Total Costs ........................................................................
Total Benefits ....................................................................
Net Benefits .......................................................................
Vocational Vehicles, Including Engines:
15.2
177.8
162.6
9.5
27.7
18.1
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3% Discount
rate
61.6
803.1
10.0
105.4
95.4
17.7
194.2
176.5
11.9
115.7
103.9
10.9
139.8
6.1
16.0
9.9
7.8
94.1
Total Costs ........................................................................
06:45 Jul 11, 2015
7% Discount
rate
8.3
107.0
Fuel Reductions (Billion Gallons) .............................................
GHG Reductions (MMT CO2 eq) ..............................................
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3% Discount
rate
56.1
731.1
Fuel Reductions (Billion Gallons) .............................................
GHG Reductions (MMT CO2 eq) ..............................................
Total Costs ........................................................................
Total Benefits ....................................................................
Net Benefits .......................................................................
HD Pickups and Vans:
4
12.8
35.0
22.1
8.4
20.6
12.1
9.3
112.8
3.7
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Federal Register / Vol. 80, No. 133 / Monday, July 13, 2015 / Proposed Rules
TABLE I–10—PER VEHICLE CATEGORY LIFETIME FUEL SAVINGS, GHG REDUCTIONS, BENEFITS, COSTS AND NET BENEFITS FOR MODEL YEARS 2018–2029 VEHICLES USING ANALYSIS METHOD A (BILLIONS OF 2012$), RELATIVE TO
BASELINE 1b a—Continued
Alternative
3
Preferred
Key costs and benefits by vehicle category
7% Discount
rate
Total Benefits ....................................................................
Net Benefits .......................................................................
4
3% Discount
rate
23.5
18.0
7% Discount
rate
14.1
10.5
3% Discount
rate
28.3
20.4
17.1
11.9
Notes:
a For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
TABLE I–11—PER VEHICLE COSTS RELATIVE TO BASELINE 1a
3
Proposed standards
MY 2021
Per Vehicle Cost ($) a
Tractors .........................................................................
Trailers ..........................................................................
Vocational Vehicles ......................................................
Pickups/Vans ................................................................
MY 2024
$6,710
900
1,150
520
4
MY 2027
$9,940
1,010
1,770
950
$11,700
1,170
3,380
1,340
MY 2021
$10,200
1,080
1,990
1,050
MY 2024
$12,400
1,230
3,590
1,730
Note:
a Per vehicle costs include new engine and vehicle technology only; costs associated with increased insurance, taxes and maintenance are included in the payback period values.
An important metric to vehicle
purchasers is the payback period that
can be expected on any new purchase.
In other words, there is greater
willingness to pay for new technology if
that new technology ‘‘pays back’’ within
an acceptable period of time. The
agencies make no effort to define the
acceptable period of time, but seek to
estimate the payback period for others
to make the decision themselves. The
payback period is the point at which
reduced fuel expenditures outpace
increased vehicle costs, including
increased maintenance, insurance
premiums and taxes. The payback
periods for vehicles meeting the
standards considered for the final year
of implementation (MY2024 for
alternative 4 and MY2027 for the
proposed standards) are shown in Table
I–12, and are similar for both Method A
and Method B.
TABLE I–12—PAYBACK PERIODS FOR MY2027 VEHICLES UNDER THE PROPOSED STANDARDS AND FOR MY2024
VEHICLES UNDER ALTERNATIVE 4 RELATIVE TO BASELINE 1a
[Payback occurs in the year shown; using 7% discounting]
Proposed
standards
Tractors/Trailers .......................................................................................................................................................
Vocational Vehicles .................................................................................................................................................
Pickups/Vans ...........................................................................................................................................................
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(3) Cost Effectiveness
These proposed regulations
implement Section 32902(k) of EISA
and Section 202(a)(1) and (2) of the
Clean Air Act. Through the 2007 EISA,
Congress directed NHTSA to create a
medium- and heavy-duty vehicle fuel
efficiency program designed to achieve
the maximum feasible improvement by
considering appropriateness, costeffectiveness, and technological
feasibility to determine maximum
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feasible standards.62 The Clean Air Act
requires that any air pollutant emission
standards for heavy-duty vehicles and
engines take into account the costs of
any requisite technology and the lead
time necessary to implement such
62 This EISA requirement applies to regulation of
medium- and heavy-duty vehicles. For many years,
and as reaffirmed by Congress in 2007, ‘‘economic
practicability’’ has been among the factors EPCA
requires NHTSA to consider when setting light-duty
fuel economy standards at the (required) maximum
feasible levels. NHTSA interprets ‘‘economic
practicability’’ as a factor involving considerations
broader than those likely to be involved in ‘‘cost
effectiveness’’.
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2nd
6th
3rd
Alternative 4
2nd
6th
4th
technology. Both agencies considered
overall costs, overall benefits and cost
effectiveness in developing the Phase 1
standards. Although there are different
ways to evaluate cost effectiveness, the
essence is to consider some measure of
costs relative to some measure of
impacts.
Considering that Congress enacted
EPCA and EISA to, among other things,
address the need to conserve energy, the
agencies have evaluated the proposed
standards in terms of costs per gallon of
fuel conserved. As described in the draft
RIA, the agencies also evaluated the
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proposed standards using the same
approaches employed in HD Phase 1.
Together, the agencies have considered
the following three ratios of cost
effectiveness:
1. Total costs per gallon of fuel
conserved.
2. Technology costs per ton of GHG
emissions reduced.
3. Technology costs minus fuel
savings per ton of GHG emissions
reduced.
By all three of these measures, the
proposed standards would be highly
cost effective.
As discussed below, the agencies
estimate that over the lifetime of heavyduty vehicles produced for sale in the
U.S. during model years 2018–2029, the
proposed standards would cost about
$30 billion and conserve about 75
billion gallons of fuel, such that the first
measure of cost effectiveness would be
about 40 cents per gallon. Relative to
fuel prices underlying the agencies’
analysis, the agencies have concluded
that today’s proposed standards would
be cost effective.
With respect to the second measure,
which is useful for comparisons to other
GHG rules, the proposed standards
would have overall $/ton costs similar
to the HD Phase 1 rule. As Chapter 7 of
the draft RIA shows, technology costs by
themselves would amount to less than
$50 per metric ton of GHG (CO2 eq) for
the entire HD Phase 2 program. This
compares well to both the HD Phase 1
rule, which was estimated to cost about
$30 per metric ton of GHG (without fuel
savings), and to the agencies’ estimates
of the social cost of carbon. Thus, even
without accounting for fuel savings, the
proposed standards would be costeffective.
The third measure deducts fuel
savings from technology costs, which
also is useful for comparisons to other
GHG rules. On this basis, net costs per
ton of GHG emissions reduced would be
negative under the proposed standards.
This means that the value of the fuel
savings would be greater than the
technology costs, and there would be a
net cost saving for vehicle owners. In
other words, the technologies would
pay for themselves (indeed, more than
pay for themselves) in fuel savings.
In addition, while the net economic
benefits (i.e., total benefits minus total
costs) of the proposed standards is not
a traditional measure of their costeffectiveness, the agencies have
concluded that the total costs of the
proposed standards are justified in part
by their significant economic benefits.
As discussed in the previous subsection
and in Section IX, this rule would
provide benefits beyond the fuel
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conserved and GHG emissions avoided.
The rule’s net benefits is a measure that
quantifies each of its various benefits in
economic terms, including the
economic value of the fuel it saves and
the climate-related damages it avoids,
and compares their sum to the rule’s
estimated costs. The agencies estimate
that the proposed standards would
result in net economic benefits
exceeding $100 billion, making this a
highly beneficial rule.
Our current analysis of Alternative 4
also shows that, if technologically
feasible, it would have similar costeffectiveness but with greater net
benefits (see Chapter 11 of the draft
RIA). For example, the agencies estimate
costs under Alternative 4 could be about
$40 billion and about 85 billion gallons
of fuel could be conserved, such that the
first measure of cost effectiveness would
be about 47 cents per gallon. However,
the agencies considered all of the
relevant factors, not just relative costeffectiveness, when selecting the
proposed standards from among the
alternatives considered. Relative costeffectiveness was not a limiting factor
for the agencies in selecting the
proposed standards. It is also worth
noting that the proposed standards and
the Alternative 4 standards appear very
cost effective, regardless of which
reference case is used for the baseline,
such that all of the analyses reinforced
the agencies’ findings.
E. EPA and NHTSA Statutory
Authorities
This section briefly summarizes the
respective statutory authority for EPA
and NHTSA to promulgate the Phase 1
and proposed Phase 2 programs. For
additional details of the agencies’
authority, see Section XV of this notice
as well as the Phase 1 rule.63
(1) EPA Authority
Statutory authority for the vehicle
controls in this proposal is found in
CAA section 202(a)(1) and (2) (which
requires EPA to establish standards for
emissions of pollutants from new motor
vehicles and engines which emissions
cause or contribute to air pollution
which may reasonably be anticipated to
endanger public health or welfare), and
in CAA sections 202(d), 203–209, 216,
and 301 (42 U.S.C. 7521 (a)(1) and (2),
7521(d), 7522–7543, 7550, and 7601).
Title II of the CAA provides for
comprehensive regulation of mobile
sources, authorizing EPA to regulate
emissions of air pollutants from all
mobile source categories. When acting
under Title II of the CAA, EPA
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FR 57106—57129, September 15, 2011.
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considers such issues as technology
effectiveness, its cost (both per vehicle,
per manufacturer, and per consumer),
the lead time necessary to implement
the technology, and based on this the
feasibility and practicability of potential
standards; the impacts of potential
standards on emissions reductions of
both GHGs and non-GHG emissions; the
impacts of standards on oil conservation
and energy security; the impacts of
standards on fuel savings by customers;
the impacts of standards on the truck
industry; other energy impacts; as well
as other relevant factors such as impacts
on safety.
This proposed action implements a
specific provision from Title II, Section
202(a). Section 202(a)(1) of the CAA
states that ‘‘the Administrator shall by
regulation prescribe (and from time to
time revise) . . . standards applicable to
the emission of any air pollutant from
any class or classes of new motor
vehicles . . ., which in his judgment
cause, or contribute to, air pollution
which may reasonably be anticipated to
endanger public health or welfare.’’
With EPA’s December 2009 final
findings that certain greenhouse gases
may reasonably be anticipated to
endanger public health and welfare and
that emissions of GHGs from Section
202(a) sources cause or contribute to
that endangerment, Section 202(a)
requires EPA to issue standards
applicable to emissions of those
pollutants from new motor vehicles. See
Coalition for Responsible Regulation v.
EPA, 684 F. 3d at 116–125, 126–27 cert.
granted by, in part Util. Air Regulatory
Group v. EPA, 134 S. Ct. 418, 187 L. Ed.
2d 278, 2013 U.S. LEXIS 7380 (U.S.,
2013), affirmed in part and reversed in
part on unrelated grounds by Util. Air
Regulatory Group v. EPA, 134 S. Ct.
2427, 189 L. Ed. 2d 372, 2014 U.S.
LEXIS 4377 (U.S., 2014) (upholding
EPA’s endangerment and cause and
contribute findings, and further
affirming EPA’s conclusion that it is
legally compelled to issue standards
under Section 202 (a) to address
emission of the pollutant which
endangers after making the
endangerment and cause of contribute
findings); see also id. at 127–29
(upholding EPA’s light-duty GHG
emission standards for MYs 2012–2016
in their entirety).
Other aspects of EPA’s legal authority,
including it authority under Section
202(a), its testing authority under
Section 203 of the Act, and its
enforcement authorities under Section
207 of the Act are discussed fully in the
Phase 1 rule, and need not be repeated
here. See 76 FR 57129–57130.
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The proposed rule includes GHG
emission and fuel efficiency standards
applicable to trailers—an essential part
of the tractor-trailer motor vehicle. Class
7/8 heavy-duty vehicles are composed
of three major components:—The
engine, the cab-chassis (i.e. the tractor),
and the trailer. The fact that the vehicle
consists of two detachable parts does
not mean that either of the parts is not
a motor vehicle. The trailer’s sole
purpose is to serve as the cargo-hauling
part of the vehicle. Without the tractor,
the trailer cannot transport property.
The tractor is likewise incomplete
without the trailer. The motor vehicle
needs both parts, plus the engine, to
accomplish its intended use. Connected
together, a tractor and trailer constitute
‘‘a self-propelled vehicle designed for
transporting . . . property on a street or
highway,’’ and thus meet the definition
of ‘‘motor vehicle’’ under Section 216(2)
of the CAA. Thus, as EPA has
previously explained, we interpret our
authority to regulate motor vehicles to
include authority to regulate such
trailers. See 79 FR 46259 (August 7,
2014).64
This analysis is consistent with
definitions in the Federal regulations
issued under the CAA at 40 CFR
86.1803–01, where a heavy-duty vehicle
‘‘that has the primary load carrying
device or container attached’’ is referred
to as a ‘‘[c]omplete heavy-duty vehicle,’’
while a heavy-duty vehicle or truck
‘‘which does not have the primary load
carrying device or container attached’’ is
referred to as an ‘‘[i]ncomplete heavyduty vehicle’’ or ‘‘[i]ncomplete truck.’’
The trailers that would be covered by
this proposal are properly considered
‘‘the primary load carrying device or
container’’ for the heavy-duty vehicles
to which they become attached for use.
Therefore, under these definitions, such
trailers are implicitly part of a
‘‘complete heavy-duty vehicle,’’ and
thus part of a ‘‘motor vehicle.’’ 65 66 67
64 Indeed, an argument that a trailer is not a motor
vehicle because, considered (artificially) as a
separate piece of equipment it is not self-propelled,
applies equally to the cab-chassis—the tractor. No
entity has suggested that tractors are not motor
vehicles; nor is such an argument plausible.
65 We note further, however, that certain hauled
items, for example a boat, would not be considered
to be a trailer under the proposal. See proposed
section 1037.801, proposing to define ‘‘trailer’ as
being ‘‘designed for cargo and for being drawn by
a tractor.’’
66 This concept is likewise reflected in the
definition of ‘‘tractor’’ in the parallel Department of
Transportation regulations: ‘‘a truck designed
primarily for drawing other motor vehicles and not
so constructed as to carry a load other than a part
of the weight of the vehicle and the load so drawn.’’
See 49 CFR 571.3.
67 EPA’s proposed definition of ‘‘vehicle’’ in 40
CFR 1037.801 makes clear that an incomplete trailer
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The argument that trailers do not
themselves emit pollutants and so are
not subject to emission standards is also
unfounded. First, the argument lacks a
factual predicate. Trailers indisputably
contribute to the motor vehicle’s CO2
emissions by increasing engine load,
and these emissions can be reduced
through various means such as trailer
aerodynamic and tire rolling resistance
improvements. See Section IV below.
The argument also lacks a legal
predicate. Section 202(a)(1) authorizes
standards applicable to emissions of air
pollutants ‘‘from’’ either the motor
vehicle or the engine. There is no
requirement that pollutants be emitted
from a specified part of the motor
vehicle or engine. And indeed, the
argument proves too much, since
tractors and vocational vehicle chassis
likewise contribute to emissions
(including contributing by the same
mechanisms that trailers do) but do not
themselves directly emit pollutants. The
fact that Section 202(a)(1) applies
explicitly to both motor vehicles and
engines likewise indicates that EPA has
unquestionable authority to interpret
pollutant emission caused by the
vehicle component to be ‘‘from’’ the
motor vehicle and so within its
regulatory authority under Section
202(a)(1).68
(2) NHTSA Authority
The Energy Policy and Conservation
Act (EPCA) of 1975 mandates a
regulatory program for motor vehicle
fuel economy to meet the various facets
of the need to conserve energy. In
December 2007, Congress enacted the
Energy Independence and Security Act
(EISA), amending EPCA to require,
among other things, the creation of a
medium- and heavy-duty fuel efficiency
program for the first time.
Statutory authority for the fuel
consumption standards in this proposed
rule is found in EISA section 103, 49
U.S.C. 32902(k). This section authorizes
a fuel efficiency improvement program,
designed to achieve the maximum
feasible improvement to be created for
commercial medium- and heavy-duty
on-highway vehicles and work trucks, to
include appropriate test methods,
measurement metrics, standards, and
becomes a vehicle (and thus subject to the
prohibition against introduction into commerce
without a certificate) when it has a frame with axles
attached. Complete trailers are also vehicles.
68 This argument applies equally to emissions of
criteria pollutants, whose rate of emission is
likewise affected by vehicle characteristics. It is for
this reason that EPA’s implementing rules for
criteria pollutants from heavy duty vehicles and
engines specify a test weight for certification
testing, since that weight influences the amount of
pollution emission.
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compliance and enforcement protocols
that are appropriate, cost-effective and
technologically feasible.
NHTSA has responsibility for fuel
economy and consumption standards,
and assures compliance with EISA
through rulemaking, including
standard-setting; technical reviews,
audits and studies; investigations; and
enforcement of implementing
regulations including penalty actions.
This proposed rule would continue to
fulfill the requirements of Section 103 of
EISA, which instructs NHTSA to create
a fuel efficiency improvement program
for ‘‘commercial medium- and heavyduty on-highway vehicles and work
trucks’’ by rulemaking, which is to
include standards, test methods,
measurement metrics, and enforcement
protocols. See 49 U.S.C. 32902(k)(2).
Congress directed that the standards,
test methods, measurement metrics, and
compliance and enforcement protocols
be ‘‘appropriate, cost-effective, and
technologically feasible’’ for the
vehicles to be regulated, while
achieving the ‘‘maximum feasible
improvement’’ in fuel efficiency.
NHTSA has broad discretion to balance
the statutory factors in Section 103 in
developing fuel consumption standards
to achieve the maximum feasible
improvement.
As discussed in the Phase 1 final rule
notice, NHTSA has determined that the
five year statutory limit on average fuel
economy standards that applies to
passengers and light trucks is not
applicable to the HD vehicle and engine
standards. As a result, the Phase 1 HD
engine and vehicle standards remain in
effect indefinitely at their 2018 or 2019
MY levels until amended by a future
rulemaking action. As was
contemplated in that notice, NHTSA is
currently engaging in this Phase 2
rulemaking action. Therefore, the Phase
1 standards would not remain in effect
at their 2018 or 2019 MY levels
indefinitely; they would remain in effect
until the MY Phase 2 standards apply.
In accordance with Section 103 of EISA,
NHTSA will ensure that not less than
four full MYs of regulatory lead-time
and three full MYs of regulatory
stability are provided for in the Phase 2
standards.
(a) Authority To Regulate Trailers
As contemplated in the Phase 1
proposed and final rules, the agencies
are proposing standards for trailers in
this rulemaking. Because Phase 1 did
not include standards for trailers,
NHTSA did not discuss its authority for
regulating them in the proposed or final
rules; that authority is described here.
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EISA directs NHTSA to ‘‘determine in
a rulemaking proceeding how to
implement a commercial medium- and
heavy-duty on-highway vehicle and
work truck fuel efficiency improvement
program designed to achieve the
maximum feasible improvement. . . .’’
EISA defines a commercial mediumand heavy-duty on-highway vehicle to
mean ‘‘an on-highway vehicle with a
GVWR of 10,000 lbs or more.’’ A ‘‘work
truck’’ is defined as a vehicle between
8,500 and 10,000 lbs GVWR that is not
an MDPV. These definitions do not
explicitly exclude trailers, in contrast to
MDPVs. Because Congress did not act to
exclude trailers when defining GVWRs,
despite demonstrating the ability to
exclude MDPVs, it is reasonable to
interpret the provision to include them.
Both commercial medium- and heavyduty on-highway vehicles and work
trucks, though, must be vehicles in
order to be regulated under this
program. Although EISA does not define
the term ‘‘vehicle,’’ NHTSA’s authority
to regulate motor vehicles under its
organic statute, the Motor Vehicle Safety
Act (‘‘Safety Act’’), does. The Safety Act
defines a motor vehicle as ‘‘a vehicle
driven or drawn by mechanical power
and manufactured primarily for use on
public streets, roads, and highways.
. . .’’ NHTSA clearly has authority to
regulate trailers under this Act as
vehicles that are drawn and has
exercised that authority numerous
times. Given the absence of any
apparent contrary intent on the part of
Congress in EISA, NHTSA believes it is
reasonable to interpret the term
‘‘vehicle’’ as used in the EISA
definitions to have a similar meaning
that includes trailers.
Furthermore, the general definition of
a vehicle is something used to transport
goods or persons from one location to
another. A tractor-trailer is designed for
the purpose of transporting goods.
Therefore it is reasonable to consider all
of its parts—the engine, the cab-chassis,
and the trailer—as parts of a whole. As
such they are all parts of a vehicle, and
are captured within the definition of
vehicle. As EPA describes above, the
tractor and trailer are both incomplete
without the other. Neither can fulfill the
function of the vehicle without the
other. For this reason, and the other
reasons stated above, NHTSA interprets
its authority to regulate commercial
medium- and heavy-duty on-highway
vehicles, including tractor-trailers, as
encompassing both tractors and trailers.
(b) Authority To Regulate Recreational
Vehicles
NHTSA did not regulate recreational
vehicles as part of the Phase 1 medium-
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and heavy-duty fuel consumption
standards, although EPA did regulate
them as vocational vehicles for GHG
emissions.69 In the Phase 1 proposed
rule, NHTSA interpreted ‘‘commercial
medium- and heavy duty’’ to mean that
recreational vehicles, such as motor
homes, were not to be included within
the program because recreational
vehicles are not commercial. Oshkosh
Corporation submitted a comment on
the agency’s interpretation stating that it
did not match the statutory definition of
‘‘commercial medium- and heavy-duty
on-highway vehicle,’’ which defines the
phrase by GVWR and on-highway use.
In the Phase 1 final rule NHTSA agreed
with Oshkosh Corporation that the
agency had effectively read words into
the statutory definition. However,
because recreational vehicles were not
proposed in the Phase 1 proposed rule,
they were not within the scope of the
rulemaking and were excluded from
NHTSA’s standards.70 NHTSA
expressed that it would address
recreational vehicles in its next
rulemaking.
NHTSA is proposing that recreational
vehicles be included in the Phase 2 fuel
consumption standards. As discussed
above, EISA prescribes that NHTSA
shall set average fuel economy
standards for work trucks and
commercial medium-duty or heavy-duty
on-highway vehicles. ‘‘Work truck’’
means a vehicle that is rated between
8,500 and 10,000 lbs GVWR and is not
an MDPV. ‘‘Commercial medium- and
heavy-duty on-road highway vehicle’’
means an on-highway vehicle with a
gross vehicle weight rating of 10,000 lbs
or more.71 Based on the definitions in
EISA, recreational vehicles would be
regulated as class 2b-8 vocational
vehicles. Excluding recreational
vehicles from the NHTSA standards in
Phase 2 could create illogical results,
including treating similar vehicles
differently. Moreover, including
recreational vehicles under NHTSA
regulations furthers the agencies’ goal of
one national program, as EPA
regulations already cover recreational
vehicles.
NHTSA is proposing that recreational
vehicles be included in the Phase 2 fuel
consumption standards and that early
compliance be allowed for
did not give special consideration to
recreational vehicles because the CAA applies to
heavy-duty motor vehicle generally.
70 Motor homes are still subject to EPA’s Phase 1
CO2 standards for vocational vehicles.
71 49 U.S.C. 32901(a)(7).
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manufacturers who want to certify
during the Phase 1 period.72
F. Other Issues
In addition to the standards being
proposed, this notice discusses several
other issues related to those standards.
It also proposes some regulatory
provisions related to the Phase 1
program, as well as amendments related
to other EPA and NHTSA regulations.
These other issues are summarized
briefly here and discussed in greater
detail in later sections.
(1) Issues Related to Phase 2
(a) Natural Gas Engines and Vehicles
This combined rulemaking by EPA
and NHTSA is designed to regulate two
separate characteristics of heavy duty
vehicles: GHGs and fuel consumption.
In the case of diesel or gasoline powered
vehicles, there is a one-to-one
relationship between these two
characteristics. For alternatively fueled
vehicles, which use no petroleum, the
situation is different. For example, a
natural gas vehicle that achieves
approximately the same fuel efficiency
as a diesel powered vehicle would emit
20 percent less CO2; and a natural gas
vehicle with the same fuel efficiency as
a gasoline vehicle would emit 30
percent less CO2. Yet natural gas
vehicles consume no petroleum. In
Phase 1, the agencies balanced these
facts by applying the gasoline and diesel
CO2 standards to natural gas engines
based on the engine type of the natural
gas engine. Fuel consumption for these
vehicles is then calculated according to
their tailpipe CO2 emissions. In essence,
this applies a one-to-one relationship
between fuel efficiency and tailpipe CO2
emissions for all vehicles, including
natural gas vehicles. The agencies
determined that this approach would
likely create a small balanced incentive
for natural gas use. In other words, it
created a small incentive for the use of
natural gas engines that appropriately
balanced concerns about the climate
impact methane emissions against other
factors such as the energy security
benefits of using domestic natural gas.
See 76 FR 57123. We propose to
maintain this approach for Phase 2.
Note that EPA is also considering
natural gas in a broader context of life
cycle emissions, as described in Section
XI.
(b) Alternative Refrigerants
In addition to use of leak-tight
components in air conditioning system
72 NHTSA did not allow early compliance for one
RV manufacturer in MY 2014 that is currently
complying EPA’s GHG standards.
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design, manufacturers could also
decrease the global warming impact of
refrigerant leakage emissions by
adopting systems that use alternative,
lower global warming potential (GWP)
refrigerants, to replace the refrigerant
most commonly used today, HFC–134a
(R–134a). HFC–134a is a potent
greenhouse gas with a GWP 1,430 times
greater than that of CO2.
Under EPA’s Significant New
Alternatives Policy (SNAP) Program,73
EPA has found acceptable, subject to
use conditions, three alternative
refrigerants that have significantly lower
GWPs than HFC–134a for use in A/C
systems in newly manufactured lightduty vehicles: HFC–152a, CO2 (R–744),
and HFO–1234yf.74 HFC–152a has a
GWP of 124, HFO–1234yf has a GWP of
4, and CO2 (by definition) has a GWP of
1, as compared to HFC–134a which has
a GWP of 1,430.75 CO2 is nonflammable,
while HFO–1234yf and HFC–152a are
flammable. All three are subject to use
conditions requiring labeling and the
use of unique fittings, and where
appropriate, mitigating flammability
and toxicity. Currently, the SNAP listing
for HFO–1234yf is limited to newly
manufactured A/C systems in LD
vehicles, whereas HFC–152a and CO2
have been found acceptable for all
motor vehicle air conditioning
applications, including heavy-duty
vehicles.
None of these alternative refrigerants
can simply be ‘‘dropped’’ into existing
HFC–134a air conditioning systems. In
order to account for the unique
properties of each refrigerant and
address use conditions required under
SNAP, changes to the systems will be
necessary. Typically these changes will
need to occur during a vehicle redesign
cycle but could also occur during a
refresh. For example, because CO2,
when used as a refrigerant, is physically
and thermodynamically very different
from HFC–134a and operates at much
higher pressures, a transition to this
refrigerant would require significant
hardware changes. A transition to A/C
systems designed for HFO–1234yf,
73 Section 612(c) of the Clean Air Act requires
EPA to review substitutes for class I and class II
ozone-depleting substances and to determine
whether such substitutes pose lower risk than other
available alternatives. EPA is also required to
publish lists of substitutes that it determines are
acceptable and those it determines are
unacceptable. See https://www.epa.gov/ozone/snap/
refrigerants/lists/, last accessed on March
5, 2015.
74 Listed at 40 CFR part 82, subpart G.
75 GWP values cited in this proposal are from the
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) unless stated
otherwise. Where no GWP is listed in AR4, GWP
values shall be determined consistent with the
calculations and analysis presented in AR4 and
referenced materials.
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which is more thermodynamically
similar to HFC–134a than is CO2,
requires less significant hardware
changes that typically include
installation of a thermal expansion
valve and could potentially require
resized condensers and evaporators, as
well as changes in other components. In
addition, vehicle assembly plants
require re-tooling in order to handle
new refrigerants safely. Thus a change
in A/C refrigerants requires significant
engineering, planning, and
manufacturing investments.
EPA is not aware of any significant
development of A/C systems designed
to use alternative refrigerants in heavyduty vehicles; 76 however, all three
lower GWP alternatives are in use or
under various stages of development for
use in LD vehicles. Of these three
refrigerants, most manufacturers of LD
vehicles have identified HFO–1234yf as
the most likely refrigerant to be used in
that application. For that reason, EPA
would anticipate that HFO–1234yf
could be a primary candidate for
refrigerant substitution in the HD
market in the future if it is listed as an
acceptable substitute under SNAP for
HD A/C applications. EPA has begun,
but has not yet completed, our
evaluation of the use of HFO–1234yf in
HD vehicles. After EPA has conducted
a full evaluation based on the SNAP
program’s comparative risk framework,
EPA will list this alternative as either a)
acceptable subject to use conditions or
b) unacceptable if the risk of use in HD
A/C systems is determined to be greater
than that of the other currently or
potentially available alternatives. EPA is
also considering and evaluating
additional refrigerant substitutes for use
in motor vehicle A/C systems under the
SNAP program. EPA welcomes
comments related to industry
development of HD A/C systems using
lower-GWP refrigerants.
LD vehicle manufacturers are
currently making investments in
systems designed for lower-GWP
refrigerants, both domestically and on a
global basis. In support of the LD GHG
rule, EPA projected a full transition of
LD vehicles to lower-GWP alternatives
in the United States by MY 2021. We
expect the investment required to
transition to ease over time as
alternative refrigerants are adopted
across all LD vehicles and trucks. This
may occur in part due to increased
availability of components and the
continuing increases in refrigerant
76 To the extent that some manufacturers produce
HD pickups and vans on the same production lines
or in the same facilities as LD vehicles, some A/C
system technology commonality between the two
vehicle classes may be developing.
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production capacity, as well as
knowledge gained through experience.
As lower-GWP alternatives become
widely used in LD vehicles, some
manufacturers may wish to also
transition their HD vehicles.
Transitioning could be advantageous for
a variety of reasons including platform
standardization and company
environmental stewardship policies.
Although manufacturers of HD
vehicles may begin to transition to
alternative refrigerants in the future,
there is great uncertainty about when
significant adoption of alternative
refrigerants for HD vehicles might begin,
on what timeline adoption might
become widespread, and which
refrigerants might be involved. Another
factor is that the most likely candidate,
HFO–1234yf, remains under evaluation
and has not yet been listed under SNAP.
For these reasons, EPA has not
attempted to project any specific
hypothetical scenarios of transition for
analytical purposes in this proposed
rule.
Because future introduction of and
transition to lower-GWP alternative
refrigerants for HD vehicles may occur,
EPA is proposing regulatory provisions
that would be in place if and when such
alternatives become available and
manufacturers of HD vehicles choose to
use them. These proposed provisions
would also have the effect of easing the
burden associated with complying with
the lower-leakage requirements when a
lower-GWP refrigerant is used instead of
HFC–134a. These provisions would
recognize that leakage of refrigerants
would be relatively less damaging from
a climate perspective if one of the
lower-GWP alternatives is used.
Specifically, EPA is proposing to allow
a manufacturer to be ‘‘deemed to
comply’’ with the leakage standard by
using a lower-GWP alternative
refrigerant. In order to be ‘‘deemed to
comply’’ the vehicle manufacturer
would need to use a refrigerant other
than HFC–134a that is listed as an
acceptable substitute refrigerant for
heavy-duty A/C systems under SNAP,
and defined under the LD GHG
regulations at 40 CFR 86.1867–12(e).
The refrigerants currently defined at 40
CFR 86.1867–12(e), besides HFC–134a,
are HFC–152a, HFO–1234yf, and CO2. If
a manufacturer chooses to use a lowerGWP refrigerant that is listed in the
future as acceptable in 40 CFR part 82,
subpart G, but that is not identified in
40 CFR 86.1867–12(e), then the
manufacturer could contact EPA about
how to appropriately determine
compliance with the leakage standard.
EPA encourages comment on all
aspects of our proposed approach to HD
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vehicle refrigerant leakage and the
potential future use of alternative
refrigerants for HD applications. We
specifically request comment on
whether there should be additional
provisions that could prevent or
discourage manufacturers that transition
to an alternative refrigerant from
discontinuing existing, low-leak A/C
system components and instead
reverting to higher-leakage components.
Recently, EPA proposed to change the
SNAP listing for the refrigerant HFC–
134a from acceptable (subject to use
conditions) to unacceptable for use in
A/C systems in new LD vehicles.77 EPA
expects to take final action on this
proposed change in listing status for
HFC–134a for use in new, light-duty
vehicles in 2015. If the final action
changes the status of HFC–134a to
unacceptable, it would establish a future
compliance date by which HFC–134a
could no longer be used in A/C systems
in newly manufactured LD vehicles;
instead, all A/C systems in new LD
vehicles would be required to use HFC–
152a, HFO–1234yf, CO2, or any other
alternative listed as acceptable for this
use in the future. The current proposed
rule does not address the use of HFC–
134a in heavy-duty vehicles; however,
EPA could consider a change of listing
status for HFC–134a use in HD vehicles
in the future if EPA determines that
other alternatives are currently or
potentially available that pose lower
overall risk to human health and the
environment.
(c) Small Business Issues
The Regulatory Flexibility Act (RFA)
generally requires an agency to prepare
a regulatory flexibility analysis of any
rule subject to notice and comment
rulemaking requirements under the
Administrative Procedure Act or any
other statute unless the agency certifies
that the rule will not have a significant
economic impact on a substantial
number of small entities. See generally
5 U.S.C. Sections 601–612. The RFA
analysis is discussed in Section XIV.
Pursuant to Section 609(b) of the RFA,
as amended by the Small Business
Regulatory Enforcement Fairness Act
(SBREFA), EPA also conducted outreach
to small entities and convened a Small
Business Advocacy Review Panel to
obtain advice and recommendations of
representatives of the small entities that
potentially would be subject to the
rule’s requirements. Consistent with the
RFA/SBREFA requirements, the Panel
evaluated the assembled materials and
small-entity comments on issues related
to elements of the IRFA. A copy of the
77 See
79 FR 46126, August 6, 2014.
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Panel Report is included in the docket
for this proposed rule.
The agencies determined that the
proposed Phase 2 regulations could
have a significant economic impact on
small entities. Specifically, the agencies
identified four categories of directly
regulated small businesses that could be
impacted:
• Trailer Manufacturers
• Alternative Fuel Converters
• Vocational Chassis Manufacturers
• Glider Vehicle 78 Assemblers
To minimize these impacts the
agencies are proposing certain
regulatory flexibilities—both general
and category-specific. In general, we are
proposing to delay new requirements for
EPA GHG emission standards by one
year and simplify certification
requirements for small businesses. For
the proposed trailers standards, small
businesses would be required to comply
with EPA’s standards before NHTSA’s
fuel efficiency standards would begin.
NHTSA does not believe that providing
small businesses trailer manufacturers
with an additional year of delay to
comply with those fuel efficiency
standards would provide beneficial
flexibility. The agencies are also
proposing the following specific relief:
• Trailers: Proposing simpler
requirements for non-box trailers, which
are more likely to be manufactured by
small businesses; and making thirdparty testing easier for certification.
• Alternative Fuel Converters:
Omitting recertification of a converted
vehicle when the engine is converted
and certified; reduced N2O testing; and
simplified onboard diagnostics and
delaying required compliance with each
new standard by one model year.
• Vocational Chassis: Less stringent
standards for certain vehicle categories.
• Glider Vehicle Assemblers: 79
Exempt existing small businesses, but
limit the small business exemption to a
capped level of annual production
(production in excess of the capped
amount would be allowed, but subject
to all otherwise applicable requirements
including the Phase 2 standards).
These flexibilities are described in more
detail in Section XIV and in the Panel
Report. The agencies look forward to
comments and to feedback from the
78 Vehicles
produced by installing a used engine
into a new chassis are commonly referred to as
‘‘gliders,’’ ‘‘glider kits,’’ or ‘‘glider vehicles,’’
79 EPA is proposing to amend its rules applicable
to engines installed in glider kits, a proposal which
would affect emission standards not only for GHGs
but for criteria pollutants as well. EPA is also
proposing to clarify its requirements for
certification and revise its definitions for glider
manufacturers. NHTSA is also considering
including gliders under its Phase 2 standards.
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40173
small business community before
finalizing the rule and associated
flexibilities to protect small businesses.
(d) Confidentiality of Test Results and
GEM Inputs
In accordance with Federal statutes,
EPA does not release information from
certification applications (or other
compliance reports) that we determine
to be confidential business information
(CBI) under 40 CFR part 2. Consistent
with the CAA, EPA does not consider
emission test results to be CBI after
introduction into commerce of the
certified engine or vehicle. (However,
we have generally treated test results as
protected before the introduction into
commerce date). For Phase 2, we expect
to continue this policy and thus would
not treat any test results or other GEM
inputs as CBI after the introduction into
commerce date as identified by the
manufacturer. We request comment on
this approach.
We consider this issue to be
especially relevant for tire rolling
resistance measurements. Our
understanding is that tire manufacturers
typically consider such results as
proprietary. However, under EPA’s
policy, tire rolling resistance
measurements are not considered to be
CBI and can be released to the public
after the introduction into commerce
date identified by the manufacturer. We
request comment on whether EPA
should release such data on a regular
basis to make it easier for operators to
find proper replacement tires for their
vehicles.
With regard to NHTSA’s treatment of
confidential business information,
manufacturers must submit a request for
confidentiality with each electronic
submission specifying any part of the
information or data in a report that it
believes should be withheld from public
disclosure as trade secret or other
confidential business information. A
form will be available through the
NHTSA Web site to request
confidentiality. NHTSA does not
consider manufacturers to continue to
have a business case for protecting premodel report data after the vehicles
contained within that report have been
introduced into commerce.
(e) Delegated Assembly
In EPA’s existing regulations (40 CFR
1068.261), we allow engine
manufacturers to sell or ship engines
that are missing certain emission-related
components if those components will be
installed by the vehicle manufacturer.
EPA has found this provision to work
well for engine manufacturers and is
proposing a new provision in 40 CFR
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1037.621 that would provide a similar
allowance for vehicle manufacturers to
sell or ship vehicles that are missing
certain emission-related components if
those components will be installed by a
secondary vehicle manufacturer. As
conditions of this allowance
manufacturers would be required to:
• Have a contractual obligation with
the secondary manufacturer to complete
the assembly properly and provide
instructions about how to do so.
• Keep records to demonstrate
compliance.
• Apply a temporary label to the
incomplete vehicles.
• Take other reasonable steps to
ensure the assembly is completed
properly.
• Describe in its application for
certification how it will use this
allowance.
We request comment on this
allowance.
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(2) Proposed Amendments to Phase 1
Program
The agencies are proposing revisions
to test procedures and compliance
provisions used for Phase 1. These
changes are described in Section XII. As
a drafting matter, EPA notes that we are
proposing to migrate the GHG standards
for Class 2b and 3 pickups and vans
from 40 CFR 1037.104 to 40 CFR
86.1819–14. NHTSA is also proposing to
amend 49 CFR part 535 to make
technical corrections to its Phase 1
program to better align with EPA’s
compliance approach, standards and
CO2 performance results. In general,
these changes are intended to improve
the regulatory experience for regulated
parties and also reduce agency
administrative burden. More
specifically, NHTSA proposes to change
the rounding of its standards and
performance values to have more
significant digits. Increasing the number
of significant digits for values used for
compliance with NHTSA standards
reduces differences in credits generated
and overall credit balances for the
NHTSA and EPA programs. NHTSA is
also proposing to remove the petitioning
process for off-road vehicles, clarify
requirements for the documentation
needed for submitting innovative
technology requests in accordance with
40 CFR 1037.610 and 49 CFR 535.7, and
add further detail to requirements for
submitting credit allocation plans as
specified in 49 CFR 535.9. Finally,
NHTSA is adding the same record
requirements that EPA currently
requires to facilitate in-use compliance
inspections. These changes are intended
to improve the regulatory experience for
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regulated parties and also reduce agency
administrative burden.
(3) Other Proposed Amendments to EPA
Regulations
EPA is proposing several amendments
to regulations not directly related to the
HD Phase 1 or Phase 2 programs, as
detailed in Section XIII. For these
amendments, there would not be
corresponding changes in NHTSA
regulations (since there are no such
regulations relevant to those programs).
Some of these relate directly to heavyduty highway engines, but not to the
GHG programs. Others relate to nonroad
engines. This latter category reflects the
regulatory structure EPA uses for its
mobile source regulations, in which
regulatory provisions applying broadly
to different types of mobile sources are
codified in common regulatory parts
such as 40 CFR part 1068. This
approach creates a broad regulatory
structure that regulates highway and
nonroad engines, vehicles, and
equipment collectively in a common
program. Thus, it is appropriate to
include some proposed amendments to
nonroad regulations in addition to the
changes proposed only for highway
engines and vehicles.
(a) Standards for Engines Used In Glider
Kits
EPA regulations currently allow used
pre-2013 engines to be installed into
new glider kits without meeting
currently applicable standards. As
described in Section XIV, EPA is
proposing to amend our regulations to
allow only engines that have been
certified to meet current standards to be
installed in new glider kits, with two
exceptions. First, engines certified to
earlier MY standards that were identical
to the current model year standards may
be used. Second, the small manufacturer
allowance described in Section I.F.(1)(c)
for glider vehicles would also apply for
the engines used in the exempted glider
kits.
(b) Re-Proposal of Nonconformance
Penalty Process Changes
Nonconformance penalties (NCPs) are
monetary penalties established by
regulation that allow a vehicle or engine
manufacturer to sell engines that do not
meet the emission standards.
Manufacturers unable to comply with
the applicable standard pay penalties,
which are assessed on a per-engine
basis.
On September 5, 2012, EPA adopted
final NCPs for heavy heavy-duty diesel
engines that could be used by
manufacturers of heavy-duty diesel
engines unable to meet the current
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oxides of nitrogen (NOX) emission
standard. On December 11, 2013 the
U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of
Columbia Circuit issued an opinion
vacating that Final Rule. It issued its
mandate for this decision on April 16,
2014, ending the availability of the
NCPs for the current NOX standard, as
well as vacating certain amendments to
the NCP regulations due to concerns
about inadequate notice. In particular,
the amendments revise the text
explaining how EPA determines when
NCP should be made available. In this
action, EPA is re-proposing most of
these amendments to provide fuller
notice and additional opportunity for
public comment. They are discussed in
Section XIV.
(c) Updates to Heavy-Duty Engine
Manufacturer In-Use Testing
Requirements
EPA and manufacturers have gained
substantial experience with in-use
testing over the last four or five years.
This has led to important insights in
ways that the test protocol can be
adjusted to be more effective. We are
accordingly proposing to make changes
to the regulations in 40 CFR part 86,
subparts N and T.
(d) Extension of Certain 40 CFR Part
1068 Provisions to Highway Vehicles
and Engines
As part of the Phase 1 GHG standards,
we applied the exemption and
importation provisions from 40 CFR
part 1068, subparts C and D, to heavyduty highway engines and vehicles. We
also specified that the defect reporting
provisions of 40 CFR 1068.501 were
optional. In an earlier rulemaking, we
applied the selective enforcement
auditing under 40 CFR part 1068,
subpart E (75 FR 22896, April 30, 2010).
We are proposing in this rule to adopt
the rest of 40 CFR part 1068 for heavyduty highway engines and vehicles,
with certain exceptions and special
provisions.
As described above, we are proposing
to apply all the general compliance
provisions of 40 CFR part 1068 to
heavy-duty engines and vehicles. We
propose to also apply the recall
provisions and the hearing procedures
from 40 CFR part 1068 for highway
motorcycles and for all vehicles subject
to standards under 40 CFR part 86,
subpart S. We also request comment on
applying the rest of the provisions from
40 CFR part 1068 to highway
motorcycles and to all vehicles subject
to standards under 40 CFR part 86,
subpart S.
EPA is proposing to update and
consolidate the regulations related to
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formal and informal hearings in 40 CFR
part 1068, subpart G. This would allow
us to rely on a single set of regulations
for all the different categories of
vehicles, engines, and equipment that
are subject to emission standards. We
also made an effort to write these
regulations for improved readability.
We are also proposing to make a
number of changes to part 1068 to
correct errors, to add clarification, and
to make adjustments based on lessons
learned from implementing these
regulatory provisions.
(e) Amendments to Engine and Vehicle
Test Procedures in 40 CFR Parts 1065
and 1066
EPA is proposing several changes to
our engine testing procedures specified
in 40 CFR part 1065. None of these
changes would significantly impact the
stringency of any standards.
(f) Amendments Related to Marine
Diesel Engines in 40 CFR Parts 1042 and
1043
EPA’s emission standards and
certification requirements for marine
diesel engines under the Clean Air Act
and the act to Prevent Pollution from
Ships are identified in 40 CFR parts
1042 and 1043, respectively. EPA is
proposing to amend these regulations
with respect to continuous NOX
monitoring and auxiliary engines, as
well as making several other minor
revisions.
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(g) Amendments Related to Locomotives
in 40 CFR Part 1033
EPA’s emission standards and
certification requirements for
locomotives under the Clean Air Act are
identified in 40 CFR part 1033. EPA is
proposing to make several minor
revisions to these regulations.
(4) Other Proposed Amendments to
NHTSA Regulations
NHTSA is proposing to amend 49
CFR parts 512 and 537 to allow
manufacturers to submit required
compliance data for the Corporate
Average Fuel Economy program
electronically, rather than submitting
some reports to NHTSA via paper and
CDs and some reports to EPA through
its VERIFY database system. The
agencies are coordinating on an
information technology project which
will allow manufacturers to submit premodel, mid-model and final model year
reports through a single electronic entry
point. The agencies anticipate that this
would reduce the reporting burden on
manufacturers by up to fifty percent.
The amendments to 49 CFR part 537
would allow reporting to an electronic
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database (i.e. EPA’s VERIFY system),
and the amendments to 49 CFR part 512
would ensure that manufacturer’s
confidential business information
would be protected through that
process. This proposal is discussed
further in Section XIII.
II. Vehicle Simulation, Engine
Standards and Test Procedures
A. Introduction and Summary of Phase
1 and Phase 2 Regulatory Structures
This Section II. A. gives an overview
of our vehicle simulation approach in
Phase 1 and our proposed approach for
Phase 2; our separate engine standards
for tractor and vocational chassis in
Phase 1 and our proposed separate
engine standards in Phase 2; and it
describes our engine and vehicle test
procedures that are common among the
tractor and vocational chassis standards.
Section II. B. discusses in more detail
how the Phase 2 proposed regulatory
structure would approach vehicle
simulation, separate engine standards,
and test procedures. Section II. C.
discusses the proposed vehicle
simulation computer program, GEM, in
further detail and Section II. D.
discusses the proposed separate engine
standards and engine test procedure.
See Sections III through VI for
discussions of the proposed test
procedures that are unique for tractors,
trailers, vocational chassis, and HD
pickup trucks and vans.
In Phase 1 the agencies adopted a
regulatory structure that included a
vehicle simulation procedure for
certifying tractors and the chassis of
vocational vehicles. In contrast, the
agencies adopted a full vehicle chassis
dynamometer test procedure for
certifying complete heavy-duty pickups
and vans. The Phase 1 vehicle
simulation procedure for tractors and
vocational chassis requires regulated
entities to use GEM to simulate and
certify tractors and vocational vehicle
chassis. This program is provided free of
charge for unlimited use and may be
downloaded by anyone from EPA’s Web
site: https://www.epa.gov/otaq/climate/
gem.htm. This computer program
mathematically combines vehicle
component test results with other predetermined vehicle attributes to
determine a vehicle’s levels of fuel
consumption and CO2 emissions for
certification purposes. For Phase 1, the
required inputs to this computer
program include, for tractors, vehicle
aerodynamics information, tire rolling
resistance, and whether or not a vehicle
is equipped with certain lightweight
high-strength steel or aluminum
components, a tamper-proof speed
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limiter, or tamper-proof idle reduction
technologies. The sole input for
vocational vehicles, was tire rolling
resistance. For Phase 1 the computer
program’s inputs did not include engine
test results or attributes related to a
vehicle’s powertrain, namely, its
transmission, drive axle(s), or tire
revolutions per mile. Instead, for Phase
1 the agencies specified a generic engine
and powertrain within the computer
program, and for Phase 1 these cannot
be changed by a program user.80
The full vehicle chassis dynamometer
test procedure for heavy-duty pickups
and vans substantially mirrors EPA’s
existing light-duty vehicle test
procedure. EPA also set separate engine
so-called cap standards for methane
(CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O)
(essentially capping current emission
levels). Compliance with the CH4 and
N2O standards is measured by an engine
dynamometer test procedure, which
EPA based on our existing heavy-duty
engine emissions test procedure with
small adaptations. EPA also set hydrofluorocarbon refrigerant leakage design
standards for cabin air conditioning
systems in tractors, pickups, and vans,
which are evaluated by design rather
than a test procedure.
In this action the agencies are
proposing a similar regulatory structure
for Phase 2, along with a number of
revisions that are intended to more
accurately evaluate vehicle and engine
technologies’ impact on real-world fuel
efficiency and GHG emissions. Thus, we
are proposing to continue the same
certification test regime for heavy duty
pickups and vans, and for the CH4 and
N2O) standards, as well as tractor and
pickup and van air conditioning leakage
standards. EPA is also proposing to
control vocational vehicle air
conditioning leakage and to use that
same certification procedure.
We are proposing to continue the
vehicle simulation procedure for
certifying tractors and vocational
chassis, and we are proposing a new
regulatory program to regulate some of
the trailers hauled by tractors. The
agencies are proposing the use of an
equation based on the vehicle
simulation procedure for trailer
certification. In addition, we are
proposing a simplified option for trailer
certification that would not require
testing to be undertaken by
manufacturers to generate inputs for the
equation. We are also proposing to
continue separate fuel consumption and
CO2 standards for the engines installed
80 These attributes are recognized in Phase 1
innovative technology provisions at 40 CFR
1037.610.
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in tractors and vocational chassis, and
we are proposing to continue to require
a full vehicle chassis dynamometer test
procedure for certifying complete
heavy-duty pickups and vans. As
described in Section II.B.(2)(b), the
agencies see important advantages to
maintaining separate engines standards,
such as improved compliance assurance
and better control during transient
engine operation.
The vehicle simulation procedure
necessitates some testing of engines and
vehicle components to generate the
inputs for the simulation tool; that is, to
generate the inputs to the model which
is used to certify tractors and vocational
chassis. For trailers, some testing may
be performed in order to generate values
that are input into the simulation-based
compliance equations. In addition to the
testing needed for this purpose for the
inputs used in the Phase 1 standards,
the agencies are proposing in Phase 2
that manufacturers conduct additional
required and optional engine and
vehicle component tests, and proposing
the additional procedures for
conducting these input tests. These
include a new required engine test
procedure that provides steady-state
engine fuel consumption and CO2
inputs to represent the actual engine in
a vehicle. In addition, we are seeking
comment on a newly developed engine
test procedure that captures transient
engine performance for use in the
vehicle simulation computer program.
As described in detail in the draft RIA
Chapter 4, we are proposing to require
entering attributes that describe the
vehicle’s transmission type, and its
number of gears and gear ratios. We are
proposing an optional powertrain test
procedure that would provide inputs to
override the agencies’ simulated engine
and transmission in the vehicle
simulation computer program. We are
proposing to require entering attributes
that describe the vehicle’s drive axle(s)
type and axle ratio. We are also seeking
comment on an optional axle efficiency
test procedure that would override the
agencies’ simulated axle in the vehicle
simulation computer program. To
improve the measurement of
aerodynamic components performance,
we are proposing a number of
improvements to the aerodynamic coastdown test procedure and data analysis,
and we are seeking comment on a newly
developed constant speed aerodynamic
test procedure. We are proposing that
the aerodynamic test procedures for
tractors be applicable to trailers when a
regulated entity opts to use the GEMbased compliance equation. Additional
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details about all these test procedures
are found in the draft RIA Chapter 3.
We are further proposing to
significantly expand the number of
technologies that are recognized in the
vehicle simulation computer program.
These include recognizing lightweight
thermoplastic materials, automatic tire
inflation systems, advanced cruise
control systems, workday idle reduction
systems, and axle configurations that
decrease the number of drive axles. We
are seeking comment on recognizing
additional technologies such as high
efficiency glass and low global warming
potential air conditioning refrigerants as
post-process adjustments to the
simulation results.
To better reflect real-world operation,
we are also proposing to revise the
vehicle simulation computer program’s
urban (55 mph) and rural (65 mph)
highway duty cycles to include changes
in road grade. We are seeking comment
on whether or not these duty cycles
should also simulate driver behavior in
response to varying traffic patterns. We
are proposing a new duty cycle to
capture the performance of technologies
that reduce the amount of time a
vehicle’s engine is at idle during a
workday when the vehicle is not
moving. And to better recognize that
vocational vehicle powertrains are
configured for particular applications,
we are proposing to further subdivide
the vocational chassis category into
three different vehicle speed categories.
This is in addition to the Phase 1
subdivision by three weight categories.
The result is nine proposed vocational
vehicle subcategories for Phase 2. The
agencies are also proposing to subdivide
the highest weight class of tractors into
two separate categories to recognize the
unique configurations and technology
applicability to ‘‘heavy-haul’’ tractors.
Even though we are proposing to
include engine test results as inputs into
the vehicle simulation computer model,
we are also proposing to continue the
Phase 1 separate engine standard
regulatory structure by proposing
separate engine fuel consumption and
CO2 standards for engines installed in
tractors and vocational chassis. For
these separate engine standards, we are
proposing to continue to use the Phase
1 engine dynamometer test procedure,
which was adapted substantially from
EPA’s existing heavy-duty engine
emissions test procedure. However, we
are proposing to modify the weighting
factors of the tractor engine’s 13-point
steady-state duty cycle to better reflect
real-world engine operation and to
reflect the trend toward operating
engines at lower engine speeds during
tractor cruise speed operation. Further
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details on the proposed Phase 2 separate
engine standards are provided below in
Section II. D. In today’s action EPA is
proposing to continue the separate
engine cap standards for methane (CH4)
and nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions.
(1) Phase 1 Vehicle Simulation
Computer Program (GEM)
For Phase 1 EPA developed a vehicle
simulation computer program called,
‘‘Greenhouse gas Emissions Model’’ or
‘‘GEM.’’ GEM was created for Phase 1
for the exclusive purpose of certifying
tractors and vocational vehicle chassis.
GEM is similar in concept to a number
of other commercially available vehicle
simulation computer programs. See 76
FR 57116, 57146, and 57156–57157.
However, GEM is also unique in a
number of ways.
Similar to other vehicle simulation
computer programs, GEM combines
various vehicle inputs with known
physical laws and justified assumptions
to predict vehicle performance for a
given period of vehicle operation. For
Phase 1 GEM’s vehicle inputs include
vehicle aerodynamics information (for
tractors), tire rolling resistance, and
whether or not a vehicle is equipped
with lightweight materials, a tamperproof speed limiter, or tamper-proof idle
reduction technologies. Other vehicle
and engine characteristics were fixed as
defaults that cannot be altered by the
user. These defaults included tabulated
data of engine fuel rate as a function of
engine speed and torque (i.e. ‘‘engine
fuel maps’’), transmissions, axle ratios,
and vehicle payloads. For tractors,
Phase 1 GEM models the vehicle pulling
a standard trailer. For vocational
vehicles, Phase 1 GEM includes a fixed
aerodynamic drag coefficient and
vehicle frontal area.
GEM uses the same physical
principles as many other existing
vehicle simulation models to derive
governing equations which describe
driveline components, engine, and
vehicle. These equations are then
integrated in time to calculate transient
speed and torque. Some of the justified
assumptions in GEM include average
energy losses due to friction between
moving parts of a vehicle’s powertrain;
the logical behavior of an average driver
shifting from one transmission gear to
the next; ad speed limit assumptions
such as 55 miles per hour for urban
highway driving and 65 miles per hour
for rural interstate highway driving. The
sequence of the GEM vehicle simulation
can be visualized by imagining a human
driver initially sitting in a parked
running tractor or vocational vehicle.
The driver then proceeds to drive the
vehicle over a prescribed route that
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includes three distinct patterns of
driving: Stop-and-go city driving, urban
highway driving, and rural interstate
highway driving. The driver then exits
the highway and brings the vehicle to a
stop. This concludes the vehicle
simulation.
Over each of the three driving
patterns or ‘‘duty cycles,’’ GEM
simulates the driver’s behavior of
pressing the accelerator, coasting, or
applying the brakes. GEM also simulates
how the engine operates as the gears in
the vehicle’s transmission are shifted
and how the vehicle’s weight,
aerodynamics, and tires resist the
forward motion of the vehicle. GEM
combines the driver behavior over the
duty cycles with the various vehicle
inputs and other assumptions to
determine how much fuel must be
consumed to move the vehicle forward
at each point during the simulation. For
each of the three duty cycles, GEM
totals the amount of fuel consumed and
then divides that amount by the product
of the miles travelled and tons of
payload carried. The tons of payload
carried are specified by the agencies for
each vehicle type and weight class. For
each regulatory subcategory of tractor
and vocational vehicle (e.g., sleeper cab
tractor, day cab tractor, small vocational
vehicle, large vocational vehicle, etc.),
GEM applies prescribed weighting
factors to each of the three duty cycles
to represent the fraction of city, urban
highway, and rural highway driving that
would be typical of each subcategory.
After completing all the cycles, GEM
outputs a single composite result for the
vehicle, expressed as both fuel
consumed in gallon per 1,000 ton-miles
(for NHTSA standards) and an
equivalent amount of CO2 emitted in
grams per ton-mile (for EPA standards).
These are the vehicle’s GEM results that
are used along with other information to
demonstrate the vehicle complies with
the applicable standards. This other
information includes the annual sales
volume of the vehicle (family) simulated
in GEM, plus information on emissions
credits that may be generated or used as
part of that vehicle family’s
certification.
While GEM is similar to other vehicle
simulation computer programs, GEM is
also unique in a number of ways. First,
GEM was designed exclusively for
regulated entities to certify tractor and
vocational vehicle chassis to the
agencies’ respective fuel consumption
and CO2 emissions standards. For GEM
to be effective for this purpose, the
inputs to GEM include only information
related to vehicle components and
attributes that significantly impact
vehicle fuel efficiency and CO2
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emissions. For example, these include
vehicle aerodynamics, tire rolling
resistance, and whether or not a vehicle
is equipped with lightweight materials,
a tamper-proof speed limiter, or tamperproof idle reduction technologies. On
the other hand, other attributes such as
those related to a vehicle’s suspension,
frame strength, or interior features are
not included, where these might be
included in other commercially
available vehicle simulation programs
for other purposes. Furthermore, the
simulated driver behavior and the duty
cycles cannot be changed in the GEM
executable program. This helps to
ensure that all vehicles are simulated
and certified in the same way, but this
does preclude GEM from being of much
use as a research tool for exploring the
effects of driver behavior and of
different duty cycles.
To allow for public comment, GEM is
available free of charge for unlimited
use, and the GEM source code is open
source. That is, the programming source
code of GEM is freely available upon
request for anyone to examine,
manipulate, and generally use without
restriction. In contrast commercially
available vehicle simulation programs
are generally not free and open source.
Additional details of GEM are included
in Chapter 4 of the RIA.
As part of Phase 1, the agencies
conducted a peer review of GEM version
1.0, which was the version released for
the Phase 1 proposal.81 82 In response to
this peer review and comments from
stakeholders, EPA has made changes to
GEM. The current version of GEM is
v2.0.1, which is the version applicable
for the Phase 1 standards.83
(2) Phase 1 Engine Standards and
Engine Test Procedure
For Phase 1 the agencies set separate
engine fuel consumption and CO2
standards for engines installed in
tractors and vocational vehicle chassis.
EPA also set separate engine cap
standards for methane (CH4) and nitrous
oxide (N2O) emissions. These Phase 1
engine standards are specified in terms
of brake-specific (g/hp-hr) fuel, CO2,
CH4 and N2O emissions limits. For these
separate engine standards, the agencies
adopted an engine dynamometer test
procedure, which was built
76 FR 57146–57147.
Environmental Protection Agency. ‘‘Peer
Review of the Greenhouse Gas Emissions Model
(GEM) and EPA’s Response to Comments.’’ EPA–
420–R–11–007. Last access on November 24, 2014
at https://www.epa.gov/otaq/climate/documents/
420r11007.pdf.
83 See EPA’s Web site at https://www.epa.gov/
otaq/climate/gem.htm for the Phase 1 GEM revision
dated May 2013, made to accommodate a revision
to 49 CFR 535.6(b)(3).
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82 U.S.
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substantially from EPA’s existing heavyduty engine emissions test procedure.
Since the test procedure already
specified how to measure fuel
consumption, CO2 and CH4, few
changes were needed to employ the test
procedure for purposes of the Phase 1
standards. For Phase 1 the test
procedure was modified to specify how
to measure N2O.
The duty cycles from EPA’s existing
heavy-duty emissions test procedure
were used in a somewhat unique way
for Phase 1. In EPA’s non-GHG engine
emissions standards, heavy-duty
engines must meet brake-specific
standards for emissions of total oxides
of nitrogen (NOX), particulate mass
(PM), non-methane hydrocarbon
(NMHC), and carbon monoxide (CO).
These standards must be met by all
engines both over a 13-mode steadystate duty cycle called the
‘‘Supplemental Emissions Test’’ (SET)
and over a composite of a cold-start and
a hot-start transient duty cycle called
the ‘‘Federal Test Procedure’’ (FTP). In
contrast, for Phase 1 the agencies
require that engines specifically
installed in tractors meet fuel efficiency
and CO2 standards over only the SET
but not the FTP. This requirement was
intended to reflect that tractor engines
typically operate near steady-state
conditions versus transient conditions.
See 76 FR 57159. The agencies adopted
the converse for engines installed in
vocational vehicles. That is, these
engines must meet fuel efficiency and
CO2 standards over only the hot-start
FTP but not the SET. This requirement
was intended to reflect that vocational
vehicle engines typically operate under
transient conditions versus steady-state
conditions (76 FR 57178). For both
tractor and vocational vehicle engines in
Phase 1, EPA set CH4 and N2O
emissions cap standards over the coldstart and hot-start FTP only and not over
the SET duty cycle. See Section II. D. for
details on how we propose to modify
the engine test procedure for Phase 2.
B. Phase 2 Proposed Regulatory
Structure
For Phase 2, the agencies are
proposing to modify the regulatory
structure used for Phase 1. Note that we
are not proposing to apply the new
Phase 2 regulatory structure for
compliance with the Phase 1 standards.
The structure used to demonstrate
compliance with the Phase 1 standards
will remain as finalized in the Phase 1
regulation. The modifications we are
proposing are consistent with the
agencies’ Phase 1 commitments to
consider a range of regulatory
approaches during the development of
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future regulatory efforts (76 FR 57133),
especially for vehicles not already
subject to full vehicle chassis
dynamometer testing. For example, we
committed to consider a more
sophisticated approach to vehicle
testing to more completely capture the
complex interactions within the total
vehicle, including the engine and
powertrain performance. We also
intended to consider the potential for
full vehicle certification of complete
tractors and vocational chassis using a
chassis dynamometer test procedure.
We also considered chassis
dynamometer testing of complete
tractors and vocational chassis as a
complementary approach for validating
a more complex vehicle simulation
approach. We also committed to
consider the potential for a regulatory
program for some of the trailers hauled
by tractors. After considering these
various approaches, the agencies are
proposing a structure in which
regulated tractor and vocational chassis
manufacturers would additionally enter
engine and powertrain-related inputs
into GEM, which was not allowed in
Phase 1.
For trailer manufacturers, which
would be subject to first-time standards
under the proposal, we are also
proposing GEM-based certification.
However, we are proposing a simplified
structure that would allow certification
without the manufacturers actually
running GEM. More specifically, the
agencies have developed a simple
equation that uses the same trailer
inputs as GEM to represent the emission
impacts of aerodynamic improvements,
tire improvements, and weight
reduction. As described in Chapter
2.10.6 of the draft RIA, these equations
have nearly perfect correlation with
GEM so that they can be used instead of
GEM without impacting stringency.
We are proposing both required and
optional test procedures to provide
these additional GEM inputs. We are
also proposing to significantly expand
the number of technologies recognized
in GEM. Further, we are proposing to
modify the GEM duty cycles and to
further subdivide the vocational vehicle
subcategory to better represent realworld vehicle operation. In contrast to
these changes, we are proposing to
maintain essentially the same chassis
dynamometer test procedure for
certifying complete heavy-duty pickups
and vans.
(1) Other Structures Considered
To follow-up on the commitment to
consider other approaches, the agencies
spent significant time and resources in
evaluating six different options for
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demonstrating compliance with the
proposed Phase 2 standards. These six
options include full vehicle chassis
dynamometer testing, full vehicle
simulation, and vehicle simulation in
combination with powertrain testing,
engine testing, engine electronic
controller and/or transmission
electronic controller testing. The
agencies evaluated these options in
terms of the capital investment required
of regulated manufacturers to conduct
the testing and/or simulation, the cost
per test, the accuracy of the simulation,
and the challenges of validating the
results. Other considerations included
the representativeness to the real world
behavior, maintaining existing Phase 1
certification approaches that are known
to work well, enhancing the Phase 1
approaches that could use
improvements, the alignment of test
procedures for determining GHG and
non-GHG emissions compliance, and
the potential to circumvent the intent of
the test procedures.
Chassis dynamometer testing is used
extensively in the development and
certification of light-duty vehicles. It
also is used in Phase 1 for complete
Class 2b/3 pickups and vans, as well as
for certain incomplete vehicles (at the
manufacturer’s option). The agencies
considered chassis dynamometer testing
more broadly as a heavy-duty fuel
efficiency and GHG certification option
because chassis dynamometer testing
has the ability to evaluate a vehicle’s
performance in a manner that most
closely resembles the vehicle’s in-use
performance. Nearly all of the fuel
efficiency technologies can be evaluated
on a chassis dynamometer, including
the vehicle systems’ interactions that
depend on the behavior of the engine,
transmission, and other vehicle
electronic controllers. One challenge
associated with application of widespread heavy-duty chassis testing is the
small number of heavy-duty chassis test
sites that are available in North
America. As discussed in draft RIA
Chapter 3, the agencies were only able
to locate 11 heavy-duty chassis test
sites. However, we have seen an
increased interest in building new sites
since issuing the Phase 1 Final Rule. For
example, EPA is currently building a
heavy-duty chassis dynamometer with
the ability to test up to 80,000 pound
vehicles at the National Vehicle and
Fuel Emissions Laboratory in Ann
Arbor, Michigan.
Nevertheless, the agencies continue to
be concerned about proposing a chassis
test procedure for certifying tractors or
vocational chassis due to the initial cost
of a new test facility and the large
number of heavy duty tractor and
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vocational chassis variants that could
require testing. We have also concluded
that for heavy-duty tractors and
vocational chassis, there can be
increased test-to-test variability under
chassis dynamometer test conditions.
First, the agencies recognize that such
testing requires expensive, specialized
equipment that is not widely available.
The agencies estimate that it would vary
from about $1.3 to $4.0 million per new
test site depending on existing
facilities.84 In addition, the large
number of heavy-duty vehicle
configurations would require significant
amounts of testing to cover the sector.
For example, for Phase 1 tractor
manufacturers typically certified several
thousand variants of one single tractor
model. Finally, EPA’s evaluation of
heavy-duty chassis dynamometer testing
has shown that the variation of chassis
test results is greater than light-duty
testing, up to 3 percent worse, based on
our sponsored testing at Southwest
Research Institute.85 Although the
agencies are not proposing chassis
dynamometer certification of tractors
and vocational chassis, we believe such
an approach could be appropriate in the
future for some heavy duty vehicles if
more test facilities become available and
if the agencies are able to address the
large number of vehicle variants that
might require testing. We request
comment on whether or not a chassis
dynamometer test procedure should be
required in lieu of the vehicle
simulation approach we are proposing.
Note, as discussed in Section II. C. (4)
(b) that we are also proposing a modest
complete tractor heavy-duty chassis
dynamometer test program only for
monitoring complete tractor fuel
efficiency trends over the
implementation timeframe of the Phase
1 and proposed Phase 2 standards.
Another option considered for
certification involves testing a vehicle’s
powertrain in a modified engine
dynamometer test facility. In this case
the engine and transmission are
installed in a laboratory test facility and
a dynamometer is connected to the
output shaft of the transmission. GEM or
an equivalent vehicle simulation
computer program is then used to
control the dynamometer to simulate
vehicle speeds and loads. The step-bystep test procedure considered for this
option was initially developed as an
option for hybrid powertrain testing for
Phase 1. A key advantage of the
powertrain test approach is that it
84 03–19034 TASK 2 Report-Paper 03-Class8_hil_
DRAFT, September 30, 2013.
85 GEM Validation, Technical Research
Workshop, San Antonio, December 10–11, 2014.
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directly measures the effectiveness of
the engine, the transmission, and the
integration of the two. Engines and
transmissions are particularly
challenging to simulate within a
computer program like GEM because
engines and transmissions installed in
vehicles today are actively and
interactively controlled by their own
sophisticated electronic controls. These
controls already contain essentially
their own vehicle simulation programs
that GEM would then have to otherwise
simulate.
We believe that the capital investment
impact for powertrain testing on
manufacturers could be manageable for
those that already have heavy-duty
engine dynamometer test cells. We have
found that in general medium-duty
powertrains can be tested in heavy-duty
engine test cells. EPA has successfully
completed such a test facility
conversion at the National Vehicle and
Fuel Emissions Laboratory in Ann
Arbor, Michigan. Southwest Research
Institute (SwRI) in San Antonio, Texas
has completed a similar test cell
conversion. Oak Ridge National
Laboratory in Oak Ridge, Tennessee
recently completed construction of a
new and specialized heavy heavy-duty
powertrain dynamometer facility. EPA
also contracted SwRI to evaluate North
America’s current capabilities for
powertrain testing in the heavy-duty
sector and the cost of installing a new
powertrain cell that would meet agency
requirements.86 Results indicated that
one supplier currently has this
capability. We estimate that the upgrade
costs to an existing engine test facility
are on the order of $1.2 million, and a
new test facility in an existing building
are on the order of $1.9 million. We also
estimate that current powertrain test
cells that could be upgraded to measure
CO2 emissions would cost
approximately $600,000. For
manufacturers or suppliers wishing to
contract out such testing, SwRI
estimated that a cost of $150,000 would
provide about one month of powertrain
testing services. Once a powertrain test
cell is fully operational, we estimate
that for a nominal powertrain family
(i.e. one engine family tested with one
transmission family), the cost for
powertrain installation, testing, and data
analysis would be $68,972.
Since the Phase 1 Final Rule, the
agencies and other stakeholders have
completed significant new work toward
refining the powertrain test procedure
itself. The proposed regulations provide
86 03–19034 TASK 2 Report-Paper 03-Class8_hil_
DRAFT, September 30, 2013.
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details of the refined powertrain test
procedure. See 40 CFR 1037.550.
Furthermore, the agencies have
worked with key transmission suppliers
to develop an approach to define
transmission families. Coupled with the
agencies existing definitions of engine
families (40 CFR 1036.230 and
1037.230), we are proposing an
approach to define a powertrain family
in 40 CFR 1037.231. We request
comment on what key attributes should
be considered when defining a
transmission family.
We believe that a combination of a
robust powertrain family definition, a
refined powertrain test procedure and a
refined GEM could become an optimal
certification path that leverages the
accuracy of powertrain testing along
with the versatility of GEM, which
alleviates the need to test a large
number of vehicle or powertrain
variants. To balance the potential
advantages of this approach with the
fact that it has never been used for
vehicle certification in the past, we are
proposing to allow this approach as an
optional certification path, as described
in Section II.B.(2)(b). To be clear, we are
not proposing to require powertrain
testing at this time, but because this
testing would recognize additional
technologies that are not recognized
directly in GEM (even as proposed to be
amended), we are factoring its use into
our stringency considerations for
vocational chassis. We request comment
on whether the agencies should
consider requiring powertrain testing
more broadly.
Another regulatory structure option
considered was engine-only testing over
the GEM duty cycles over a range of
simulated vehicle configurations. This
approach would use GEM to generate
engine duty cycles by simulating a range
of transmissions and other vehicle
variations. These engine duty cycles
then would be programmed into a
separate controller of a dynamometer
connected to an engine’s output shaft.
Unlike the chassis dynamometer or
powertrain dynamometer approaches,
which could have significant test
facility construction or modification
costs, this approach has little capital
investment impact on manufacturers
because the majority already have
engine test facilities to both develop
engines and to certify engines to meet
both the non-GHG standards and the
Phase 1 fuel efficiency and GHG
standards. The agencies also have been
investigating this approach as an
alternative way to generate data that
could be used to represent an engine in
GEM. Because this approach captures
engine performance under transient
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conditions, this approach could be an
improvement over our proposed Phase 2
approach of representing an engine in
GEM with only steady-state operating
data. Details of this alternative are
described in draft RIA. Because this
approach is new and has never been
used for vehicle development or
certification, we are not proposing
requiring its use as part of the Phase 2
certification process. However, we
encourage others to investigate this new
approach in detail, and we request
comment on whether or not the agencies
should replace our proposed steadystate operation representation of the
engine in GEM with this alternative
approach.
Additional certification options
considered included simulating the
engine, transmission, and vehicle using
a computer program while having the
actual transmission electronic controller
connected to the computer running the
vehicle simulation program. The output
of the simulation would be an engine
cycle that would be used to test the
engine in an engine test facility. Just as
in the engine-only test procedure, this
procedure would not require significant
capital investment in new test facilities.
An additional benefit of this approach
would be that the actual transmission
controller would be determining the
transmission gear shift points during the
test, without a transmission
manufacturer having to reveal their
proprietary transmission control logic.
This approach comes with some
technical challenges, however. The
model would have to become more
complex and tailored to each
transmission and controller to make
sure that the controller would operate
properly when it is connected to a
computer instead of a transmission.
Some examples of the transmission
specific requirements would be
simulating all the Controller Area
Network (CAN) communication to and
from the transmission controller and the
specific sensor responses both through
simulation and hardware. The vehicle
manufacturer would have to be
responsible for connecting the
transmission controller to the computer,
which would require a detailed
verification process to ensure it is
operating properly. Determining full
compliance with this test procedure
would be a significant challenge for the
regulatory agencies because the agencies
would have to be able to replicate each
of the manufacturer’s unique interfaces
between the transmission controller and
computer running GEM.
Finally, the agencies considered full
vehicle simulation plus separate engine
standards, which is the proposed
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approach for Phase 2. These are
discussed in more detail in the
following sections.
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(2) Proposed Regulatory Structure
Under the proposed structure, tractor
and vocational chassis manufacturers
would be required to provide engine,
transmission, drive axle(s) and tire
radius inputs into GEM. For Phase 1,
GEM used default values for all of these,
which limited the types of technologies
that could be recognized by GEM to
show compliance with the standards.
We are proposing to significantly
expand GEM to account for a wider
range of technological improvements
that would otherwise need to be
recognized through some off-cycle
crediting approach. These include
improvements to the driver controller
(i.e., the simulation of the driver),
engines, transmissions, and axles.
Additional technologies that would now
be recognized in GEM also include
lightweight thermoplastic materials,
automatic tire inflation systems,
advanced cruise control systems, engine
stop-start idle reduction systems, and
axle configurations that decrease the
number of drive axles. The agencies are
also proposing to maintain separate
engine standards. As described below,
we see advantages to having both
engine-based and vehicle-based
standards. Moreover, the advantages
described here for full vehicle
simulation do not necessarily
correspond to disadvantages for engine
testing or vice versa.
(a) Advantages of Full Vehicle
Simulation
The agencies’ primary purpose in
developing fuel efficiency and GHG
emissions standards is to increase the
use of vehicle technologies that improve
fuel efficiency and decrease GHG
emissions. Under the Phase 1 tractor
and vocational chassis standards, there
is no regulatory incentive for
manufacturers to adopt new engine,
transmission or axle technologies
because GEM was not configured to
recognize these technologies uniquely.
By recognizing such technologies in
GEM under Phase 2, the agencies would
be creating a regulatory incentive to
improve engine, transmission, and axle
technologies to improve fuel efficiency
and decrease GHG emissions. In its 2014
report, NAS also recognized the benefits
of full vehicle simulation and
recommended that Phase 2 incorporate
such an approach.
We anticipate that the proposed Phase
2 approach would create three new
specific regulatory incentives. First,
vehicle manufacturers would have an
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incentive to use the most efficient
engines. Since GEM would no longer
use the agency default engine in
simulation manufacturers would have
their own more efficient engines
recognized in GEM. Under Phase 1,
engine manufacturers have a regulatory
incentive to design efficient engines, but
vehicle manufacturers do not have a
similar regulatory incentive to use
efficient engines in their vehicles.
Second, the proposed approach would
create incentives for both engine and
vehicle manufacturers to design engines
and vehicles to work together to ensure
that engines actually operate as much as
possible near their most efficient points.
This is because Phase 2 GEM would
allow the vehicle manufactures to use
specific transmission, axle, and tire
characteristics as inputs, thus having
the ability to directly recognize many
powertrain integration benefits, such as
downspeeding, and different
transmission architectures and
technologies, such as automated manual
transmissions, automatic transmissions,,
and different numbers of transmission
gears, transmission gear ratios, axle
ratios and tire revolutions per mile. No
matter how well designed, all engines
have speed and load operation points
with differing fuel efficiency and GHG
emissions. The speed and load point
with the best fuel efficiency (i.e., peak
thermal efficiency) is commonly known
as the engine’s ‘‘sweet spot’’. The more
frequently an engine operates near its
sweet spot, the better the vehicle’s fuel
efficiency will be. In Phase 1, a vehicle
manufacturer receives no regulatory
credit for designing its vehicle to
operate closer to the sweet spot because
Phase 1 GEM does not model the actual
engine, transmission, axle, or tire
revolutions per mile. Third, the
proposed approach would recognize
improvements to the overall efficiency
of the drivetrain including the axle. The
proposed version of GEM would
recognize the benefits of different axle
technologies including axle lubricants,
and reducing axle losses such as by
enabling three-axle vehicles to deliver
power to only one rear axle through the
proposed post-simulation adjustment
approach (see Chapter 4.5 of the Draft
RIA).
In addition to providing regulatory
incentives to use more fuel efficient
technologies, expanding GEM to
recognize engine and other powertrain
component improvements would also
provide important flexibility to vehicle
manufacturers. The flexibility to
effectively trade engine and other
component improvements against other
vehicle improvements would allow
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vehicle manufacturers to better optimize
their vehicles to achieve the lowest cost
for specific customers. Vehicle
manufacturers could use this flexibility
to reduce overall compliance costs and/
or address special applications where
certain vehicle technologies are not
practical. The agencies considered in
Phase 1 allowing the exchange of
emission certification credits generated
relative to the separate brake-specific (g/
hp-hr) engine standards and credits
generated relative to the vehicle
standards (g/ton-mile). However, we did
not allow this in Phase 1 due in part to
concerns about the equivalency of
credits generated relative to different
standards, with different units of
measure and different test procedures.
The proposed approach for Phase 2
would eliminate these concerns because
engine and other vehicle component
improvements would be evaluated
relative to the same vehicle standard in
GEM. This also means that under the
proposed Phase 2 approach there is no
need to consider allowing emissions
credit trading between engine-generated
and vehicle-generated credits because
vehicle manufacturers are directly
credited by the combination of engine
and vehicle technologies they choose to
install in each vehicle. Therefore, this
approach eliminates one of the concerns
about continuing separate engine
standards, which was that a separate
engine standard and a full vehicle
standard were somehow mutually
exclusive. That is not the case. In fact,
in the next section we describe how we
propose to continue the separate engine
standard along with recognizing engine
performance at the vehicle level. The
agencies acknowledge that maintaining
a separate engine standard would limit
flexibility in cases where a vehicle
manufacturer wanted to use less
efficient engines and make up for them
using more efficient vehicle
technologies. However, as described
below, we see important advantages to
maintaining a separate engine standard,
and we believe they more than justify
the reduced flexibility.
There could be disadvantages to the
proposed approach, however. As is
discussed in Section II.B.(2)(b), some of
the disadvantages can be addressed by
maintaining separate engine standards,
which we are proposing to do. We
request comment on other
disadvantages such as those discussed
below.
One disadvantage of the proposed
approach is that it would increase
complexity for the vehicle standards.
For example, vehicle manufacturers
would be required to conduct additional
engine tests and track additional GEM
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inputs for compliance purposes.
However, we believe that most of the
burden associated with this increased
complexity would be an infrequent
burden of engine testing and updating
information systems to track these
inputs.
Because GEM measures performance
over specific duty cycles intended to
represent average operation of vehicles
in-use, the proposed approach might
also create an incentive to optimize
powertrains and drivetrains for the best
GEM performance rather than the best
in-use performance for a particular
application. This is always a concern
when selecting duty cycles for
certification. There will always be
instances, however infrequent, where
specific vehicle applications will
operate differently than the duty cycles
used for certification. The question is
would these differences force
manufacturers to optimize vehicles to
the certification duty cycles in a way
that decreases fuel efficiency and
increases GHG emissions in-use? We
believe that the certification duty cycles
would not prevent manufacturers from
properly optimizing vehicles for
customer fuel efficiency. First, the
impact of the certification duty cycles
would be relatively small because they
affect only a small fraction of all vehicle
technologies. Second, the emission
averaging and fleet average provisions
mean that the proposed regulations
would not require all vehicles to meet
the standards. Vehicles exceeding a
standard over the duty cycles because
they are optimized for different in-use
operation can be offset by other vehicles
that perform better over the certification
duty cycles. Third, vehicle
manufacturers would also have the
ability to lower such a vehicle’s
measured GHG emissions by adding
technology that would improve fuel
efficiency both over the certification
duty cycles and in-use. The proposed
standards are not intended to be at a
stringency where manufacturers would
be expected to apply all technologies to
all vehicles. Thus, there should be
technologies available to add to vehicle
configurations that initially fail to meet
the Phase 2 proposed standards. Fourth,
we are proposing further subcategorization of the vocational vehicle
segment, tripling the number of
subcategories within this segment from
3 to 9. These 9 subcategories would
divide each of the 3 Phase 1 weight
categories into 3 additional vehicle
speed categories. Each of the 3 speed
categories would have unique duty
cycle weighting factors to recognize that
different vocational chassis are
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configured for different vehicle speed
applications. Furthermore, we are
proposing 9 unique standards for each
of the subcategories. This further
subdivision better recognizes
technologies’ performance under the
conditions for which the vocational
chassis was configured to operate. This
further decreases the potential of the
certification duty cycles to encourage
manufacturers to configure vocational
chassis differently than the optimum
configuration for specific customers’
applications. Finally, as required by
Section 202 (a) (1) and 202 (d) of the
CAA, EPA is proposing specific GHG
standards which would have to be met
in-use.
One disadvantage of our proposed full
vehicle simulation approach is the
potential requirement for engine
manufacturers to disclose otherwise
proprietary information to vehicle
manufacturers who install their engines.
Under the proposed approach, vehicle
manufacturers would need to know
details about engine performance long
before production, both for compliance
planning purposes, as well as for the
actual submission of applications for
certification. Moreover, vehicle
manufacturers would need to know
details about the engine’s performance
that are generally not publicly
available—specifically the detailed fuel
consumption of an engine over many
steady-state operating points. We
request comment on whether or not
such information could be used to
‘‘reverse engineer’’ intellectual property
related to the proprietary design of
engines, and what steps the agencies
could take to address this.
The agencies also generally request
comment on the advantages and
disadvantages of the proposed structure
that would require vehicle
manufacturers to provide additional
inputs into GEM to represent the engine,
transmission, drive axle(s), and loaded
tire radius.
(b) Advantages of Separate Engine
Standards
For engines installed in tractors and
vocational vehicle chassis, we are
proposing to maintain separate engine
standards for fuel consumption and
GHG emissions in Phase 2 for both SI
and CI engines. Moreover, we are
proposing new more stringent engine
standards for CI engines. While the
vehicle standards alone are intended to
provide sufficient incentive for
improvements in engine efficiency, we
continue to see important advantages to
maintaining separate engine standards
for both SI and CI engines. The agencies
believe the advantages described below
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are critical to fully achieve the goals of
the NHTSA and EPA standards.
First, EPA has a robust compliance
program based on engine testing. For the
Phase 1 standards, we applied the
existing criteria pollutant compliance
program to ensure that engine efficiency
in actual use reflected the
improvements manufacturers claimed
during certification. With engine-based
standards, it is straightforward to hold
engine manufacturers accountable by
testing in-use engines. If the engines
exceed the standards, they can be
required to correct the problem or
perform other remedial actions. Without
separate engine standards in Phase 2,
addressing in-use compliance becomes
more subjective. Having clearly defined
compliance responsibilities is important
to both the agencies and to the market.
Second, engine standards for CO2 and
fuel efficiency force engine
manufacturers to optimize engines for
both fuel efficiency and control of nonCO2 emissions at the same engine
operating points. This is of special
concern for NOX emissions, given the
strong counter-dependency between
engine-out NOX emissions and fuel
consumption. By requiring engine
manufacturers to comply with both NOX
and CO2 standards using the same test
procedures, the agencies ensure that
manufacturers include technologies that
can be optimized for both rather than
alternate calibrations that would trade
NOX emissions against fuel
consumption depending how the engine
or vehicle is tested. In the past, when
there was no CO2 engine standard and
no steady-state NOX standard, some
manufacturers chose this dual
calibration approach instead of
investing in technology that would
allow them to simultaneously reduce
both CO2 and NOX.
Third, engine fuel consumption can
vary significantly between transient
operation and steady-state operation,
and we are proposing only steady-state
engine operating data as the required
engine input into GEM for both tractor
and vocational chassis certification.
Because vocational vehicles can spend
significant operation under transient
engine operation, the separate engine
standard for engines installed in
vocational vehicles is a transient test.
Therefore, the separate engine standard
for vocational engines provides the only
measure of engine fuel consumption
and CO2 emissions under transient
conditions. Without a transient engine
test we would not be able to ensure
control of fuel consumption and CO2
emissions under transient engine
conditions.
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It is worth noting that these first three
advantages are also beneficial for the
marketplace. In these respects, the
separate engine standards allow each
manufacturer to be confident that its
competitors are playing by the same
rules. The agencies believe that the
absence of a separate engine standard
would leave open the possibility that a
manufacturer might choose to cut
corners with respect to in-use
compliance margins, the NOX-CO2
tradeoff, or transient controls. Concerns
that competitors might take advantage of
this can put a manufacturer in a difficult
situation. On the other hand knowing
that the agencies are ensuring all
manufacturers are complying fully can
eliminate these concerns.
Finally, the existence of meaningful
separate engine standards allows the
agencies to exempt certain vehicles from
some or all of the vehicle standards and
requirements without forgoing the
engine improvements. A good example
of this is the off-road vehicle exemption
in 40 CFR 1037.631 and 49 CFR 535.3,
which exempts vehicles ‘‘intended to be
used extensively in off-road
environments’’ from the vehicle
requirements. The engines used in such
vehicles must still meet the engine
standards of 40 CFR 1036.108 and 49
CFR 535.5(d). The agencies see no
reason why efficient engines cannot be
used in such vehicles. However,
without separate engine standards, there
would be no way to require them to be
efficient.
In the past there has been some
confusion about the Phase 1 separate
engine standards somehow preventing
the recognition of engine-vehicle
optimization that vehicle manufacturers
perform to minimize a vehicle’s overall
fuel consumption. It was not the
existence of separate engine standards
that prevented recognition of this
optimization. Rather it was that the
agencies did not allow manufacturers to
enter inputs into GEM that
characterized unique engine
performance. For Phase 2 we are
proposing to require that manufacturers
input such data because we intend for
GEM to recognize this engine-vehicle
optimization. The continuation of
separate engine standards in Phase 2
does not undermine in any way the
recognition of this optimization in GEM.
The agencies request comment on the
advantages and disadvantages of the
proposal to maintain separate engine
standards and to increase the stringency
of the CI engine standards. We would
also welcome suggested alternative
approaches that would achieve the same
goals. It is important to emphasize that
the agencies see the advantages of
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separate engine standards as
fundamental to the success of the
program and do not expect to adopt
alternative approaches that fall short of
these goals.
Note that commenters opposing
separate engine standards should also
be careful distinguish between concerns
related to the stringency of the proposed
engine standards, from concerns
inherent to any separate engine
standards whatsoever. When meeting
with manufacturers prior to this
proposal, the agencies heard many
concerns about the potential problems
with separate engines standards that
were actually concerns about separate
engine standards that are too stringent.
However, we see these as two different
issues. The agencies do recognize that
setting engine standards at a high
stringency could increase the cost to
comply with the vehicle standard, if
lower-cost vehicle technologies are
available. Additionally, the agencies
recognize that setting engine standards
at a high stringency may promote the
use of large-displacement engines,
which have inherent heat transfer and
efficiency advantages over smaller
displacement engines over the engine
test cycles, though a smaller engine may
be more efficient for a given vehicle
application. Thus we encourage
commenters supporting the separate
engine standards to address the
possibility of unintended consequences
such as these.
C. Proposed Vehicle Simulation
Model—Phase 2 GEM 87
For tractors and vocational vehicle
chassis, the agencies propose that
manufacturers would be required to
meet vehicle-based standards, and
certification to these standards would be
facilitated by the required use of the
vehicle simulation computer program
called, ‘‘Greenhouse gas Emissions
Model’’ or ‘‘GEM.’’ GEM was created for
Phase 1 for the exclusive purpose of
certifying tractors and vocational
chassis. The agencies are proposing to
modify GEM and to require vehicle
manufacturers to provide additional
inputs into GEM to represent the engine,
transmission, drive axle(s), and loaded
tire radius. For Phase 1, GEM used
agency default values for all of these
parameters. Under the proposed
approach for Phase 2, vehicle
manufacturers would be able to use
these technologies, plus additional
technologies to demonstrate compliance
87 The specific version of GEM used to develop
the proposed standards, and which we propose to
use for compliance purposes is also known as GEM
3.0.
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with the applicable standards. The
additional technologies include
lightweight thermoplastic materials,
automatic tire inflation systems,
advanced cruise control systems, engine
stop-start idle reduction systems, and
axle configurations that decrease the
number of drive axles to comply with
the standards.
(1) Description of the Proposed
Modifications to GEM
As explained above, GEM is a
computer program that was originally
developed by EPA specifically for
manufacturers to use to certify to the
Phase 1 tractor and vocational chassis
standards. GEM mathematically
combines the results of vehicle
component test procedures with other
vehicle attributes to determine a
vehicle’s certified levels of fuel
consumption and CO2 emissions. For
Phase 1 the required inputs to GEM
include vehicle aerodynamics
information, tire rolling resistance, and
whether or not a vehicle is equipped
with certain lightweight high-strength
steel or aluminum components, a
tamper-proof speed limiter, or tamperproof idle reduction technologies for
tractors. The vocational vehicle inputs
to GEM for Phase 1 only included tire
rolling resistance. For Phase 1 the
GEM’s inputs did not include engine
test results or attributes related to a
vehicle’s powertrain; namely, its
transmission, drive axle(s), or loaded
tire radius. Instead, for Phase 1 the
agencies specified a generic engine and
powertrain within GEM, and for Phase
1 these cannot be changed in GEM.
For this proposal GEM has been
modified and validated against a set of
experimental data that represents over
130 unique vehicle variants. EPA
believes this new version of GEM is an
accurate and cost-effective alternative to
measuring fuel consumption and CO2
over a chassis dynamometer test
procedure. Some of the key proposed
modifications would necessitate
required and optional vehicle
component test procedures to generate
additional GEM inputs. The results of
which would provide additional inputs
into GEM. These include a new required
engine test procedure to provide steadystate engine fuel consumption and CO2
inputs into GEM. We are also seeking
comment on a newly developed engine
test procedure that also captures
transient engine performance for use in
GEM. We are proposing to require
inputs that describe the vehicle’s
transmission type, and its number of
gears and gear ratios. We are proposing
an optional powertrain test procedure
that would provide inputs to override
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the agencies’ simulated engine and
transmission in GEM. We are proposing
to require inputs that describe the
vehicle’s drive axle(s) type (e.g., 6x4 or
6x2) and axle ratio. We are also seeking
comment on an optional axle efficiency
test procedure to override the agencies’
simulated axle in GEM. We are
proposing to significantly expand the
number of technologies that are
recognized in GEM. These include
recognizing lightweight thermoplastic
materials, automatic tire inflation
systems, advanced cruise control
systems, engine stop-start idle reduction
systems, and axle configurations that
decrease the number of drive axles. We
are seeking comment on recognizing
(outside of the GEM simulation)
additional technologies such as high
efficiency glass and low global warming
potential air conditioning refrigerants.
To better reflect real-world operation,
we are also proposing to revise the
vehicle simulation computer program’s
urban and rural highway duty cycles to
include changes in road grade. We are
seeking comment on whether or not
these duty cycles should also simulate
driver behavior in response to varying
traffic patterns. We are proposing a new
duty cycle to capture the performance of
technologies that reduce the amount of
time a vehicle’s engine is at idle during
a workday when the vehicle is not
moving. And to better recognize that
vocational vehicle powertrains are
configured for particular applications,
we are proposing to further subdivide
the vocational chassis category into
three different vehicle speed categories,
where GEM weights the individual duty
cycles’ results of each of the speed
categories differently. Section 4.2 of the
RIA details all these modifications. This
section briefly describes some of the key
proposed modifications to GEM.
(a) Simulating Engines for Vehicle
Certification
Before describing the proposed
approach for Phase 2, this section first
reviews how engines are simulated for
vehicle certification in Phase 1. GEM for
Phase 1 simulates the same generic
engine for any vehicle in a given
regulatory subcategory with a data table
of steady-state engine fuel consumption
mass rates (g/s) versus a series of steadystate engine output shaft speeds
(revolutions per minute, rpm) and loads
(torque, N-m). This data table is also
sometimes called a ‘‘fuel map’’ or an
‘‘engine map’’, although the term
‘‘engine map’’ can mean other kinds of
data in different contexts. The engine
speeds in this map range from idle to
maximum governed speed and the loads
range from engine motoring (negative
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load) to the maximum load of an engine.
When GEM runs over a vehicle duty
cycle, this data table is linearly
interpolated to find a corresponding fuel
consumption mass rate at each engine
speed and load that is demanded by the
simulated vehicle operating over the
duty cycle. The fuel consumption mass
rate of the engine is then integrated over
each duty cycle in GEM to arrive at the
total mass of fuel consumed for the
specific vehicle and duty cycle. Under
Phase 1, manufacturers were not
allowed to input their own engine fuel
maps to represent their specific engines
in the vehicle being simulated in GEM.
Because GEM was programmed with
fixed engine fuel maps for Phase 1 that
all manufacturers had to use,
interpolation of the tables themselves
over each of the three different GEM
duty cycles did not have to closely
represent how an actual engine might
operate over these three different duty
cycles.
In contrast, for Phase 2 we are
proposing a new and required steadystate engine dynamometer test
procedure for manufacturers to use to
generate their own engine fuel maps to
represent each of their engine families
in GEM. The proposed Phase 2
approach is consistent with the 2014
NAS Phase 2 First Report
recommendation.88 To validate this
approach we compared the results from
28 individual engine dynamometer
tests. Three different engines were used
to generate this data, and these engines
were produced by two different engine
manufacturers. One engine was tested at
three different power ratings (13 liters at
410, 450 & 475 hp) and one engine was
tested at two ratings (6.7 liters at 240
and 300 hp), and other engine with one
rating (15 liters 455 hp) service classes.
For each engine and rating our proposed
steady-state engine dynamometer test
procedure was conducted to generate an
engine fuel map to represent that
particular engine in GEM. Next, with
GEM we simulated various vehicles in
which the engine could be installed. For
each of the GEM duty cycles we are
proposing, namely the urban local (ARB
Transient), urban highway with road
grade (55 mph), and rural highway with
road grade (65 mph) duty cycles, we
determined the GEM result for each
vehicle configuration, and we saved the
engine output shaft speed and torque
information that GEM created to
interpolate the steady-state engine map
for each vehicle configuration. We then
88 National Academy of Science. ‘‘Reducing the
Fuel Consumption and GHG Emissions of Mediumand Heavy-Duty Vehicles, Phase Two, First
Report.’’ 2014. Recommendation 3.8.
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had this same engine output shaft speed
and torque information programmed
into an engine dynamometer controller,
and we had each engine perform the
same duty cycles that GEM demanded
of the simulated version of the engine.
We then compared the GEM results
based on GEM’s linear interpolation of
the engine maps to the measured engine
dynamometer results. We concluded
that for the 55 mph and 65 mph duty
cycles, GEM’s interpolation of the
steady-state data tables was sufficiently
accurate versus the measured results.
This is an outcome one would
reasonably expect because even with
changes in road grade, the 55 mph and
65 mph duty cycles do not demand
rapid changes in engine speed or load.
The 55 mph and 65 mph duty cycles are
nearly steady-state, as far as engine
operation is concerned, just like the
engine maps themselves. However, for
the ARB Transient cycle, we observed a
consistent bias, where GEM consistently
under-predicted fuel consumption and
CO2 emissions. This low bias over the
28 engine tests ranged from 4.2 percent
low to 7.8 percent low. The mean was
5.9 percent low and the 90th percentile
value was 7.1 percent low. These
observations are consistent with the fact
that engines generally operate less
efficiently under transient conditions
than under steady-state conditions.
A number of reasons explain this
consistent trend. For example, under
rapidly changing engine conditions, it is
generally more challenging to program
an engine electronic controller to
respond with optimum fuel injection
rate and timing, exhaust gas
recirculation valve position, variable
nozzle turbo-charger vane position and
other set points than it is to do so under
steady-state conditions. Transient heat
and mass transfer within the intake,
exhaust, and combustion chambers also
tend to increase turbulence and enhance
energy loss to engine coolant during
transient operation. Furthermore,
because exhaust emissions control is
more challenging under transient engine
operation, engineering tradeoffs
sometimes need to be made between
fuel efficiency and transient emissions
control. Special calibrations are
typically also required to control smoke
and manage exhaust temperatures
during transient operation for a
transient cycle. We are confident that
this low bias in GEM would continue to
exist well into the future if we were to
test additional engines. However, with
the range of the results that we have
generated so far we are somewhat less
confident in proposing a single
numerical value to correct for this effect
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over the ARB Transient duty cycle.
Based on the data we have collected so
far, we are conservatively proposing to
apply a 5.0 percent correction factor to
GEM’s ARB Transient results. Note that
adjustment would be applied internal to
GEM, and no manufacturer input or
action would be needed. This means
that for GEM fuel consumption and CO2
emissions results that were generated
using the steady-state engine map
representation of an engine in GEM, a
1.05 multiplier would be applied to
only the ARB Transient result. If a
manufacturer chooses to perform the
optional powertrain test procedure we
are proposing, then this 1.05 multiplier
to the ARB Transient would not apply
(since we know of no bias in that
optional powertrain test). For the same
reason, if we were to replace the
proposed steady-state engine map in
GEM with the alternative approach
detailed in draft RIA, then this 1.05
multiplier would not apply. We request
comment on whether or not this single
value multiplier is an appropriate way
to correct between steady-state and
transient engine fuel consumption and
CO2 emissions, specifically over the
ARB Transient duty cycle. We also
request comment on the magnitude of
the multiplier itself. For example, for
the proposal we have chosen a 1.05
multiplier correction value because it is
conservative but still near the mean bias
we observed. However, for the tests we
have conducted on current technology
engines, a 1.05 multiplier would mean
that about one half of these engines
would be penalized by powertrain
testing (or if we utilized the alternative
engine approach) because the actual
measured transient impact would be
slightly higher than 5 percent. While
these tests were performed on current
technology powertrains rather than the
kind of optimized powertrains we
project for Phase 2, these results raise
still some concerns for us. Because we
intend to incentivize powertrain testing
and not penalize it, and because we also
encourage constructive comments on
the alternative approach, we also
request comment on increasing the
magnitude of this ARB Transient
multiplier toward the higher end of the
biases we observed. For example, we
request comment on increasing the
proposed multiplier from 1.05 to 1.07,
which is close to the 90th percentile of
the results we have collected so far.
Using this higher multiplier would
imply that only about 10 percent of
engines powertrain tested or tested
under the alternative approach would
show worse fuel consumption over the
ARB Transient than its respective
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representation in a steady-state data
table in GEM. This would mean that the
remaining 90 percent of engines
powertrain tested would receive
additional credit in GEM. Using 1.07
would essentially guarantee that any
powertrain that was significantly more
efficient than current powertrains
would receive meaningful credit for the
improvement. However, this value
would also provide credits for many
current powertrain designs.
We also request comment as to
whether or not there might be certain
vehicle sub-categories or certain small
volume vocational chassis, where using
the Phase 1 approach of using a generic
engine table might be more appropriate.
We also request comment as to whether
or not the agencies should provide
default generic engine maps in GEM for
Phase 2 and allow manufacturers to
optionally override these generic maps
with their own maps, which would be
generated according to our proposed
engine dynamometer steady-state test
procedure.
(b) Simulating Human Driver Behavior
and Transmissions for Vehicle
Certification
GEM for Phase 1 simulates the same
generic human driver behavior and
manual transmission for all vehicles.
The simulated driver responds to
changes in the target vehicle speed of
the duty cycles by changing the
simulated positions of the vehicle’s
accelerator pedal, brake pedal, clutch
pedal, and gear shift lever. For
simplicity in Phase 1 the GEM driver
shifted at ideal points for maximum fuel
efficiency and the manual transmission
was simulated as an ideal transmission
that did not have any delay time (i.e.,
torque interruption) between gear shifts
and did not have any energy losses
associated with clutch slip during gear
shifts.
In GEM for Phase 2 we are proposing
to allow manufacturers to select one of
three types of transmissions to represent
the transmission in the vehicle they are
certifying: manual transmission,
automated manual transmission, and
automatic transmission. We are
currently in the process of developing a
dual-clutch transmission type in GEM,
but we are not proposing to allow its use
in Phase 2 at this time. Because
production of heavy-duty dual clutch
transmissions has only begun in the past
few months, we do not yet have any
experimental data to validate our GEM
simulation of this transmission type.
Therefore, we are requesting comment
on whether or not there is additional
data available for such validation.
Should such data be provided in
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comments, we may finalize GEM for
Phase 2 with a fourth transmission types
for dual clutch transmissions. We are
also considering an option to address
dual clutch transmissions through a
post-simulation adjustment as discussed
in Chapter 4 of the draft RIA.
In the proposed modifications to
GEM, the driver behavior and the three
different transmission types are
simulated in the same basic manner as
in Phase 1, but each transmission type
features a unique combination of driver
behavior and transmission responses
that match both the driver behavior and
the transmission responses we
measured during vehicle testing of these
three transmission types. In general the
transmission gear shifting strategy for all
of the transmissions is designed to shift
the transmission so that it is always in
the most efficient gear for the current
vehicle demand, while staying within
certain limits to prevent unrealistically
high frequency shifting. Some examples
of these limits are torque reserve limits
(which vary as function of engine
speed), minimum time-in-gear and
minimum fuel efficiency benefit to shift
to the next gear. Some of the differences
between the three transmission types
include a driver ‘‘double-clutching’’
during gear shifts of the manual
transmission only, and ‘‘power shifts’’
and torque converter torque
multiplication, slip, and lock-up in
automatic transmissions only. Refer to
Chapter 4 of the draft RIA for a more
detailed description of these different
simulated driver behaviors and
transmission types.
We considered an alternative
approach where transmission
manufacturers would provide vehicle
manufacturers with detailed
information about their automated
transmissions’ proprietary shift
strategies for representation in GEM.
NAS also recommended this
approach.89 The advantages of this
approach include a more realistic
representation of a transmission in GEM
and potentially the recognition of
additional fuel efficiency improving
strategies to achieve additional fuel
consumption and CO2 emissions
reductions. However, there are a
number of technical and policy
disadvantages of this approach. One
disadvantage is that it would require the
89 Transportation Research Board 2014.
‘‘Reducing the Fuel Consumption and Greenhouse
Gas Emissions of Medium- and Heavy-Duty
Vehicles, Phase Two.’’ (‘‘Phase 2 First Report’’)
Washington, DC, The National Academies Press.
Cooperative Agreement DTNH22–12–00389.
Available electronically from the National Academy
Press Web site at https://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?
record_id=12845 (last accessed December 2, 2014).
Recommendation 3.7.
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disclosure of proprietary information
between competing companies because
some vehicle manufacturers produce
their own transmissions and also use
other suppliers’ transmissions. There
are technical challenges too. For
example, some transmission
manufacturers have upwards of 40
different shift strategies programmed
into their transmission controllers.
Depending on in-use driving conditions,
some of which are not simulated in
GEM (e.g., changing payloads, changing
tire traction) a transmission controller
can change its shift strategy.
Representing dynamic switching
between multiple proprietary shift
strategies would be extremely complex
to simulate in GEM. Furthermore, if the
agencies were to propose requiring
transmission manufacturers to provide
shift strategy inputs for use in GEM,
then the agencies would have to devise
a compliance strategy to monitor in-use
shift strategies, including a driver
behavior model that could be
implemented as part of an in-use shift
strategy test. This too would be very
complex. If manufacturers were subject
to in-use compliance requirements of
their transmission shift strategies, this
could lead to restricting the use of
certain shift strategies in the heavy-duty
sector, which would in turn potentially
lead to sub-optimal vehicle
configurations that do not improve fuel
efficiency or adequately serve the wide
range of customer needs; especially in
the vocational vehicle segment. For
example, if the agencies were to restrict
the use of more aggressive and less fuel
efficient in-use shift strategies that are
used only under heavy loads and steep
grades, then certain vehicle applications
would need to compensate for this loss
of capability through the installation of
over-sized and over-powered engines
that are subsequently poorly matched
and less efficient under lighter load
conditions. Therefore, as a policy
consideration to preserve vehicle
configuration choice and to preserve the
full capability of heavy-duty vehicles
today, the agencies are intentionally not
requiring transmission manufacturers to
submit detailed proprietary shift
strategy information to vehicle
manufacturers to input into GEM. This
is not unlike Phase 1, where unique
transmission and axle attributes were
not recognized at all in GEM. Instead,
the agencies are proposing that vehicle
manufacturers choose from among the
three transmission types that the
agencies have already developed,
validated, and programmed into GEM.
The vehicle manufacturers would then
enter into GEM their particular
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transmission’s number of gears and gear
ratios. The agencies recognize that
designing GEM like this would exclude
a potentially significant reduction from
the GEM simulation. However, if a
manufacturer chooses to use the
optional powertrain test procedure, then
the agencies’ transmission types in GEM
would be overridden by the actual data
collected during the powertrain test,
which would recognize the actual
benefit of the transmission. Note that
the optional powertrain test procedure
is only advantageous to a vehicle
manufacturer if an actual transmission
is more efficient and has a superior shift
strategy compared to its respective
transmission type simulated in GEM.
(c) Simulating Axles for Vehicle
Certification
In GEM for Phase 1 the axle ratio of
the primary drive axle and the energy
losses assumed in the simulated axle
itself were the same for all vehicles. For
Phase 2 we are proposing that the
vehicle manufacturer input into GEM
the axle ratio of the primary drive axle.
This input would recognize the intent to
operate the engine at a particular engine
speed when the transmission is
operating in its highest transmission
gear; especially for the 55 mph and 65
mph duty cycles in GEM. This input
facilitates GEM’s recognition of vehicle
designs that take advantage of operating
the engine at the lowest possible engine
speeds. This is commonly known as
‘‘engine down-speeding’’, and the
general rule-of-thumb for heavy-duty
engines is that for every 100 rpm
decrease in engine speed, there can be
about a 1 percent decrease in fuel
consumption and CO2 emissions.
Therefore, it is important that GEM
allow this value to be input by the
vehicle manufacturer. Axle ratio is also
straightforward to verify during any inuse compliance audit.
We are proposing a fixed axle ratio
energy efficiency of 95.5 percent at all
speeds and loads, but are requesting
comment on whether this pre-specified
efficiency is reasonable. However, we
know that this efficiency actually varies
as a function of axle speed and axle
input torque. Therefore, as an
exploratory test we have created a
modified version of GEM that has as an
input a data table of axle efficiency as
a function of axle speed and axle torque.
The modified version of GEM
subsequently interpolates this table over
each of the duty cycles to represent a
more realistic axle efficiency at each
point of each duty cycle. We have also
created a draft axle ratio efficiency test
procedure that requires the use of a
dynamometer test facility. This
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procedure includes the use of a baseline
fuel-efficient synthetic gear lubricant
manufactured by BASF.90 This baseline
will be used to gauge improvements in
axle design and lubricants. The draft
test procedure includes initial feedback
that we have received from axle
manufacturers and our own engineering
judgment. Refer to 40 CFR 1037.560 of
the Phase 2 proposed regulations, which
contain this draft test procedure. This
test procedure could be used to generate
the results needed to create the axle
efficiency data table for input into GEM.
However, the agencies have not yet
conducted experimental tests of axles
using this draft test procedure so we are
reluctant to propose this test procedure
as either mandatory or even optional at
this time. Rather we request comment as
to whether or not we should finalize
this test procedure and either require its
use or allow its use optionally to
determine an axle efficiency data table
as an input to GEM, which would
override the fixed axle efficiency we are
proposing at this time. We also request
comment on improving or otherwise
refining the test procedure itself. Note
that the agencies believe that allowing
the GEM default axle efficiency to be
replaced by manufacturer inputs only
makes sense if the manufacturer inputs
is are the results of a specified test
procedure that we could verify by our
own independent testing of the axle.
In addition to proposing to require the
primary drive axle ratio input into GEM
(and potentially an option to input an
actual axle efficiency data table), we are
also proposing that the vehicle
manufacturer input into GEM whether
or not one or two drive axles are driven
by the engine. When a heavy-duty
vehicle is equipped with two rear axles
where both are driven by the engine,
this is called a ‘‘6x4’’ configuration. ‘‘6’’
refers to the total number of wheel hubs
on the vehicle. In the 6x4 configuration
there are two front wheel hubs for the
two steer wheels and tires plus four rear
wheel hubs for the four rear wheels and
tires (or more commonly four sets of
rear dual wheels and tires). ‘‘4’’ refers to
the number of wheel hubs driven by the
engine. These are the two rear axles that
have two wheel hubs each. Compared to
a 6x4 configuration a 6x2 configuration
decreases axle energy loss due to
friction and oil pumping in two driven
axles, by driving only one axle. The
decrease in fuel consumption and CO2
emissions associated with a 6x2 versus
6x4 axle configuration is estimated to be
90 BASF TI/EVO 0137 e, Emgard® FE 75W–90
Fuel Efficient Synthetic Gear Lubricant.
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2.5 percent.91 Therefore, in the
proposed Phase 2 version of GEM, if a
manufacturer simulates a 6x2 axle
configuration, GEM decreases the
overall GEM result by 2.5 percent. Note
that GEM will similarly decrease the
overall GEM result by 2.5 percent for a
4x2 tractor or Class 8 vocational chassis
configuration if it has only two wheel
hubs driven. Note that we are not
proposing that GEM have an option to
increase the overall GEM result by some
percentage by selecting, say, a 6x6 or
8x8 option if the front axle(s) are driven.
Because these configurations are only
manufactured for specialized vehicles
that require extra traction for off-road
applications, they are very low volume
sales and their increased fuel
consumption and CO2 emissions are not
significant in comparison to the overall
reductions of the proposed Phase 2
program. Note that 40 CFR 1037.631 (for
off-road vocational vehicles), which is
being continued from the Phase 1
program, would likely exempt many of
these vehicles from the vehicle
standards.
Instead of directly modeling 6x4 or
6x2 axle configuration, we are
proposing use of a post-simulation
adjustment approach discussed in
Chapter 4 of the drat RIA to model
benefits of different axle configuration.
(d) Simulating Accessories for Vehicle
Certification
Phase 1 GEM uses a fixed power
consumption value to simulate the fuel
consumed for powering accessories
such as power steering pumps and
alternators. While the agencies are not
proposing any changes to this approach
for Phase 2, we are requesting comment
on whether or not we should allow
some manufacturer input to reflect the
installation of accessory components
that result in lower accessory loads. For
example, we could consider an
accessory load reduction GEM input
based on installing a number of
qualifying advanced accessory
components that could be in production
during Phase 2. We request comment on
identifying such advanced accessory
components, and we request comment
on defining these components in such a
way that they can be unambiguously
distinguished from other similar
components that do not decrease
accessory loads. We also request
comment on how much of a decrease in
accessory load should be programmed
into GEM if qualifying advanced
accessory components are installed.
91 NACFE. Executive Report—6x2 (Dead Axle)
Tractors. November 2010. See Docket EPA–HQ–
OAR–2014–0827.
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(e) Aerodynamics for Tractor,
Vocational Vehicle, and Trailer
Certification
For GEM in Phase 2 the agencies
propose to simulate aerodynamic drag
in largely the same manner as in Phase
1. For vocational chassis we propose to
continue to use the same prescribed
products of drag coefficient times
vehicle frontal area (Cd*A) that were
predefined for each of the vocational
subcategories in Phase 1. For tractors we
propose to continue to use an
aerodynamic bin approach similar to the
one that exists in Phase 1 today. This
approach requires tractor manufacturers
to conduct a certain amount of coastdown vehicle testing, although
manufacturers have the option to
conduct scaled wind tunnel testing and/
or computational fluid dynamics
modeling. The results of these tests
determine into which bin a vehicle is
assigned. Then in GEM the aerodynamic
drag coefficient for each vehicle in the
same bin is the same. This approach
helps to account for limits in the
repeatability of aerodynamic testing and
it creates a compliance margin since any
test result which keeps the vehicle in
the same aerodynamic bin is considered
compliant. However, for Phase 2 we are
proposing new boundary values for the
bins themselves and we are adding two
additional bins in order to recognize
further advances in aerodynamic drag
reduction beyond what was recognized
in Phase 1. Furthermore, while Phase 1
GEM used predefined frontal areas for
tractors while the manufacturers input a
Cd value, the agencies propose that
manufacturers would use a measured
drag area (CdA) value for each tractor
configuration for Phase 2. See 40 CFR
1037.525.
In addition to these proposed changes
we are proposing a number of
aerodynamic drag test procedure
improvements. One proposed
improvement is to update the so-called
standard trailer that is prescribed for use
during aerodynamic drag testing of a
tractor—that is, the hypothetical trailer
modeled in GEM to represent a trailer
paired with the tractor in actual use. In
Phase 1 a non-aerodynamic 53-foot long
box-shaped dry van trailer was specified
as the standard trailer for tractor
aerodynamic testing (see 40 CFR
1037.501(g)). For Phase 2 we are
proposing to modify this standard trailer
for tractor testing to make it more
similar to the trailers we would require
to be produced during the Phase 2
timeframe. More specifically, we would
prescribe the installation of
aerodynamic trailer skirts (and low
rolling resistance tires as applied in
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Phase 1) on the reference trailer, as
discussed in further in Section III.E.2.
As explained more fully in Sections III
and IV below, the agencies believe that
tractor-trailer pairings will be optimized
aerodynamically to a significant extent
in-use (such as using high-roof cabs
when pulling box trailers), and that this
real-world optimization should be
reflected in the certification testing. We
also request comment on whether or not
the Phase 2 standard trailer should
include the installation of other
aerodynamic devices such as a nose
fairing, an under tray, or a boat tail or
trailer tail. Would a standard trailer
including these additional components
make the tractor program better?
Another proposed aerodynamic test
procedure improvement is intended to
better account for average wind yaw
angle to better reflect the true impact of
aerodynamic features on the in-use fuel
consumption and CO2 emissions of
tractors. Refer to the proposed test
procedures in 40 CFR 1037.525 for
further details of these aerodynamic test
procedures.
For trailer certification, the agencies
are proposing to use GEM in a different
way than GEM is used for tractor
certification in Phase 1 and Phase 2. As
described in Section IV, the proposed
trailer standards are based on GEM
simulation, but trailer manufacturers
would not run GEM for certification.
Instead, manufacturers would use a
simple equation to replicate GEM
performance from the inputs. As with
GEM, the only technologies recognized
by this GEM-based equation for trailer
certification are aerodynamic
technologies, tire technologies
(including tire rolling resistance and
automatic tire inflation systems), and
some weight reduction technologies.
Note that since the purpose of this
equation is to measure GEM
performance, it can be considered as
simply another form of the model using
a different input interface. Thus, for
simplicity, the remainder of this Section
II. C. sometimes discusses GEM as being
used for trailers, without regard to how
manufacturers will actually input GEM
variables.
Similar to tractor certification, we
propose that trailer manufacturers may
at their option conduct some amount of
aerodynamic testing (e.g., coast-down
testing, scale wind tunnel testing,
computational fluid dynamics
modeling, or possibly aerodynamic
component testing) and use this
information with the equation.92 In this
92 The agencies project that more than enough
aerodynamic component vendors would take
advantage of proposed optional pre-approval
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case the agencies propose the
configuration of a reference tractor for
conducting trailer testing. Refer to
Section IV of this preamble and to 40
CFR 1037.501 of the proposed
regulations for details on the proposed
reference tractor configuration for trailer
test procedures.
(f) Tires and Tire Inflation Systems for
Truck and Trailer Certification
For GEM in Phase 1 vehicle
manufacturers input the tire rolling
resistance of steer and drive tires
directly into GEM. The agencies
prescribed an internationally recognized
tire rolling resistance test procedure,
ISO 28580, for determining the tire
rolling resistance value that is input into
GEM, as described in 40 CFR
1037.520(c). For Phase 2 we are
proposing to continue this same
approach and the use of ISO 28580, and
we propose to expand these
requirements to trailer tires as well. We
request comment on whether specific
modifications to this test procedure
would improve its accuracy,
repeatability or its test lab to test lab
variability.
In addition to tire rolling resistance,
we are proposing that for Phase 2
vehicle manufacturers enter into GEM
the tire manufacturer’s specified tire
loaded radius for the vehicle’s drive
tires. This value is commonly reported
by tire manufacturers already so that
vehicle speedometers can be adjusted
appropriately. This input value is
needed so that GEM can accurately
convert simulated vehicle speed into
axle speed, transmission speed, and
ultimately engine speed. We request
comment on whether the proposed test
procedure should be modified to
measure the tire’s revolutions per
distance directly, as opposed to using
the loaded radius to calculate the drive
axle rotational speed from vehicle
speed.
For tractors and trailers, we propose
to allow manufacturers to specify
whether or not an automatic tire
inflation system is installed. If one is
installed, GEM, or in the case of trailers,
the equations based on GEM, would
assign a 1 percent decrease in the
overall fuel consumption and CO2
emissions simulation results for tractors,
and a 1.5 percent decrease for trailers.
This would be done through postsimulation adjustments discussed in
Chapter 4 of the draft RIA. In contrast,
we are not proposing to assign any
decrease in fuel consumption and CO2
emissions for tire pressure monitoring
process to make trailer manufacturer testing
optional.
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systems. We do recognize that some
drivers would respond to a warning
indication from a tire pressure
monitoring system, but we are unsure
how to assign a fixed decrease in fuel
consumption and CO2 emissions for tire
pressure monitoring systems. We would
estimate that the value would be less
than any value we would assign for an
automatic tire inflation system. We
request comment on whether or not we
should assign a fixed decrease in fuel
consumption and CO2 emissions for tire
pressure monitoring systems, and if so,
we request comment on what would be
an appropriate assigned fixed value.
(g) Weight Reduction for Tractor,
Vocational Chassis and Trailer
Certification
We propose for Phase 2 that GEM
continues the weight reduction
recognition approach in Phase 1, where
the agencies prescribe fixed weight
reductions, or ‘‘deltas’’, for using certain
lightweight materials for certain vehicle
components. In Phase 1 the agencies
published a list of weight reductions for
using high-strength steel and aluminum
materials on a part by part basis. For
Phase 2 we propose to use these same
values for high-strength steel and
aluminum parts for tractors and for
trailers and we have scaled these values
for use in certifying the different weight
classes of vocational chassis. In addition
we are proposing a similar part by part
weight reduction list for tractor parts
made from thermoplastic material. We
are also proposing to assign a fixed
weight increase to natural gas fueled
vehicles to reflect the weight increase of
natural gas fuel tanks versus gasoline or
diesel tanks. This increase would be
allocated partly to the chassis and from
the payload using the same allocation as
weight reductions for the given vehicle
type. For tractors we are proposing to
continue the same mathematical
approach in GEM to assign 1/3 of a total
weight decrease to a payload increase
and 2/3 of the total weight decrease to
a vehicle mass decrease. For Phase 1
these ratios were based on the average
frequency that a tractor operates at its
gross combined weight rating.
Therefore, we propose to use these
ratios for trailers in Phase 2. However,
as with the other fuel consumption and
GHG reducing technologies
manufacturers use for compliance,
reductions associated with weight
reduction would be calculated using the
trailer compliance equation rather than
GEM. For vocational chassis, for which
Phase 1 did not address weight
reduction, we propose a 50/50 ratio. In
other words, for vocational chassis in
GEM we propose to assign 1/2 of a total
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weight decrease to a payload increase
and 1/2 of the total weight decrease to
a vehicle mass decrease. We request
comment on all aspects of applying
weight reductions in GEM, including
proposed weight increases for alternate
fuel vehicles and whether a 50/50 ratio
is appropriate for vocational chassis.
(h) GEM Duty Cycles for Tractor,
Vocational Chassis and Trailer
Certification
In Phase 1, there are three GEM
vehicle duty cycles that represented
stop-and-go city driving (ARB
Transient), urban highway driving (55
mph), and rural interstate highway
driving (65 mph). In Phase 1 these
cycles were time-based. That is, they
were specified as a function of
simulated time and the duty cycles
ended once the specified time elapsed
in simulation. The agencies propose to
use these three drive cycles in Phase 2,
but with some revisions. First the
agencies propose that GEM would
simulate these cycles on a distancebased specification, rather than on a
time-based specification. A distancebased specification ensures that even if
a vehicle in simulation does not always
achieve the target vehicle speed, the
vehicle will have to continue in
simulation for a longer period of time to
complete the duty cycle. This ensures
that vehicles are evaluated over the
complete distance of the duty cycle and
not just the portion of the duty cycle
that a vehicle completes in a given time
period. A distance-based duty cycle
specification also facilitates a
straightforward specification of road
grade as a function of distance along the
duty cycle. For Phase 2 the agencies are
proposing to enhance the 55 mph and
65 mph duty cycles by adding
representative road grade to exercise the
simulated vehicle’s engine,
transmission, axle, and tires in a more
realistic way. A flat road grade profile
over a constant speed test does not
present many opportunities for a
transmission to shift gears, and may
have the unintended consequence of
enabling underpowered vehicles or
excessively downsped drivetrains to
generate credits. The road grade profile
proposed is the same for both the 55
mph and 65 mph duty cycles, and the
profile was based on real over-the-road
testing the agencies directed under an
agency-funded contract with Southwest
Research Institute.93 See Section III.E for
more details on development of the
proposed road grade profile. The
agencies are continuing to evaluate
93 SwRI road grade testing and GEM validation
report, 2014.
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alternate road grade profiles including
actual sections of restricted access
highway with road grades that are
statistically similar to the national road
grade profile as well as purely synthetic
road grade profiles.94 We request
comments on the proposed road grade
profile, and would welcome additional
statistical evaluations of this road grade
profile and other road grade profiles for
comparison. We believe that the
enhancement of the 55 mph and 65 mph
duty cycles with road grade is
consistent with the NAS
recommendation regarding road grade.95
We recognize that even with the
proposed road grade profile, GEM may
continue to under predict the number of
transmission shifts of vehicles on
restricted access highways if the model
simulates constant speeds. We request
comment on other ways in which the
proposed 55 mph and 65 mph duty
cycles could be enhanced. For example,
we request comment on whether a more
aggressive road grade profile would
induce a more realistic and
representative number of transmission
gear shifts. We also request comment on
whether we should consider varying the
vehicle target speed over the 55 mph
and/or 65 mph duty cycles to simulate
human driver behavior reacting to traffic
congestion. This would increase the
number of shifts during the 55 mph and
65 mph duty cycles, though it may be
possible for an equivalent effect to be
94 See National Renewable Energy Laboratory
report ‘‘EPA GHG Certification of Medium- and
Heavy-Duty Vehicles: Development of Road Grade
Profiles Representative of US Controlled Access
Highways’’ dated May 2015 and EPA memorandum
‘‘Development of an Alternative, Nationally
Representative, Activity Weighted Road Grade
Profile for Use in EPA GHG Certification of
Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicles’’ dated May 13,
2015, both available in Docket EPA–HQ–OAR–
2014–0827. This docket also includes file NREL_
SyntheticAndLocalGradeProfiles.xlsx which
contains numerical representations of all road grade
profiles described in the NREL report.
95 NAS 2010 Report. Page 189. ‘‘A fundamental
concern raised by the committee and those who
testified during our public sessions was the tension
between the need to set a uniform test cycle for
regulatory purposes, and existing industry practices
of seeking to minimize the fuel consumption of
medium and heavy-duty vehicles designed for
specific routes that may include grades, loads, work
tasks or speeds inconsistent with the regulatory test
cycle. This highlights the critical importance of
achieving fidelity between certification values and
real-world results to avoid decisions that hurt rather
than help real-world fuel consumption.’’
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achieved by assigning a greater
weighting to the transient cycle in the
GEM composite test score.
(i) Workday Idle Operation for
Vocational Vehicle Certification
In the Phase 1 program, reduction in
idle emissions was recognized only for
sleeper cab tractors, and only with
respect to hotelling idle, where a driver
needs power to operate heating,
ventilation, air conditioning and other
electrical equipment in order to use the
sleeper cab to eat, rest, or conduct other
business. As described in Section V, the
agencies are now proposing to recognize
in GEM technologies that reduce
workday idle emissions, such as
automatic stop-start systems and
automatic transmissions that shift to
neutral at idle. Many vocational vehicle
applications operate on patterns
implicating workday idle cycles, and
the agencies are proposing test
procedures in GEM to account
specifically for these cycles and
potential controls. GEM would
recognize these idle controls in two
ways. For technologies like neutral-idle
that address idle that occurs during the
transient cycle (representing the type of
operation that would occur when the
vehicle is stopped at a stop light), GEM
would interpolate lower fuel rates from
the engine map. For technologies like
start-stop and auto-shutdown that
eliminate some of the idle that occurs
when a vehicle is stopped or parked,
GEM would assign a value of zero fuel
rate for what we are proposing as an
‘‘idle cycle’’. This idle cycle would be
weighted along with the 65 mph, 55
mph, and ARB Transient duty cycles
according to the vocational chassis duty
cycle weighting factors that we are
proposing for Phase 2. These weighting
factors are different for each of the three
vocational chassis speed categories that
we are proposing for Phase 2. While we
are not proposing to apply this idle
cycle for tractors, we do request
comment on whether or not we should
consider a applying this idle cycle to
certain tractor types, like day cabs that
could experience more significant
amounts of time stopped or parked as
part of an urban delivery route. We also
request comment on whether or not
start-stop or auto-shutdown
technologies are being developed for
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tractors; especially for Class 7 and 8 day
cabs that could experience more
frequent stops and more time parked for
deliveries.
(2) Validation of the Proposed GEM
After making the proposed changes to
GEM, the agencies validated the model
in comparison to over 130 vehicle
variants, consistent with the
recommendation made by the NAS in
their Phase 2-First Report.96 As is
described in Chapter 4 of the Draft RIA,
good agreement was observed between
GEM simulations and test data over a
wide range of vehicles. In general, the
model simulations agreed with the test
results within ±5 percent on an absolute
basis. As pointed out in Chapter 4.3.2 of
the RIA, relative accuracy is more
relevant to this rulemaking. This is
because all of the numeric standards
proposed for tractors, trailers and
vocational chassis are derived from
running GEM first with Phase 1
‘‘baseline’’ technology packages and
then with various candidate Phase 2
technology packages. The differences
between these GEM results are
examined to select stringencies. In other
words, the agencies used the same
version of GEM to establish the
standards as was used to evaluate
baseline performance for this
rulemaking. Therefore, it is most
important that GEM accurately reflects
relative changes in emissions for each
added technology. For vehicle
certification purposes it is less
important that GEM’s absolute value of
the fuel consumption or CO2 emissions
are accurate compared to laboratory
testing of the same vehicle. The ultimate
purpose of this new version of GEM will
be to evaluate changes or additions in
technology, and compliance is
demonstrated on a relative basis to the
numerically standards that were also
derived from GEM. Nevertheless, the
agencies concluded that the absolute
accuracy of GEM is generally within ±5
percent, as shown in Figure II–1.
Chapter 4.3.2 of the draft RIA shows
that relative accuracy is even better, ±2–
3 percent.
96 National Academy of Science. ‘‘Reducing the
Fuel Consumption and GHG Emissions of Mediumand Heavy-Duty Vehicles, Phase Two, First
Report.’’ 2014. Recommendation1.2.
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In addition to this successful
validation against experimental results,
the agencies have also initiated a peer
review of the proposed GEM source
code. This peer review has been
submitted to Docket # EPA–HQ–OAR–
2014–0827.
(3) Supplements to GEM Simulation
As in Phase 1, for most tractors and
vocational vehicles, compliance with
the Phase 2 g/ton-mile vehicle standards
could be evaluated by directly
comparing the GEM result to the
standard. However, in Phase 1,
manufacturers incorporating innovative
or advanced technologies could apply
improvement factors to lower the GEM
result slightly before comparing to the
standard.97 For example, a manufacturer
incorporating a launch-assist mild
hybrid that was approved for a 5 percent
benefit would apply a 0.95
improvement factor to its GEM results
for such vehicles. In this example, a
GEM result of 300 g/ton-mile would be
reduced to 285 g/ton-mile.
For Phase 2, the agencies are
proposing to largely continue the
existing Phase 1 innovative technology
approach. We are also proposing to
create a parallel option specifically
related to innovative powertrain
97 40 CFR 1036.610, 1036.615, 1037.610, and
1037.615
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designs. These proposals are discussed
below.
(a) Innovative/Off-Cycle Technology
Procedures
In Phase 1 the agencies adopted an
emissions credit generating opportunity
that applied to new and innovative
technologies that reduce fuel
consumption and CO2 emissions, that
were not in common use with heavyduty vehicles before model year 2010
and are not reflected over the test
procedures or GEM (i.e., the benefits are
‘‘off-cycle’’). See 76 FR 57253. As was
the case in the development of Phase 1,
the agencies are proposing to continue
this approach for technologies and
concepts with CO2 emissions and fuel
consumption reduction potential that
might not be adequately captured over
the proposed Phase 2 duty cycles or are
not proposed inputs to GEM. Note,
however, that the agencies are
proposing to refer to these technologies
as off-cycle rather than innovative. See
Section I for more discussion of
innovative and off-cycle technologies.
We recognize that the Phase 1 testing
burden associated with the innovative
technology credit provisions
discouraged some manufacturers from
applying. To streamline recognition of
many technologies, default values have
been integrated directly into GEM. For
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example, automatic tire inflation
systems and 6x2 axles both have fixed
default values, recognized through a
post-simulation adjustment approach
discussed in Chapter 4 of the draft RIA.
This is similar to the technology ‘‘pick
list’’ from our light-duty programs. See
77 FR 62833–62835 (October 15, 2012).
If manufacturers wish to receive
additional credit beyond these fixed
values, then the innovative/off-cycle
technology credit provisions would
provide the regulatory path toward that
additional recognition.
Beyond the additional technologies
that the agencies have added to GEM,
the agencies also believe there are
several emerging technologies that are
being developed today, but would not
be accounted for in GEM as we are
proposing it because we do not have
enough information about these
technologies to assign fixed values to
them in GEM. Any credits for these
technologies would need to be based on
the off-cycle technology credit
generation provisions. These require the
assessment of real-world fuel
consumption and GHG reductions that
can be measured with verifiable test
methods using representative operating
conditions typical of the engine or
vehicle application.
As in Phase 1, the agencies are
proposing to continue to provide two
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paths for approval of the test procedure
to measure the CO2 emissions and fuel
consumption reductions of an off-cycle
technology used in the HD tractor. See
40 CFR 1037.610 and 49 CFR 535.7. The
first path would not require a public
approval process of the test method. A
manufacturer can use ‘‘pre-approved’’
test methods for HD vehicles including
the A-to-B chassis testing, powerpack
testing or on-road testing. A
manufacturer may also use any
developed test procedure which has
known quantifiable benefits. A test plan
detailing the testing methodology is
required to be approved prior to
collecting any test data. The agencies
are also proposing to continue the
second path which includes a public
approval process of any testing method
which could have questionable benefits
(i.e., an unknown usage rate for a
technology). Furthermore, the agencies
are proposing to modify its provisions to
better clarify the documentation
required to be submitted for approval
aligning them with provisions in 40 CFR
86.1869–12, and NHTSA is separately
proposing to prohibit credits from
technologies addressed by any of its
crash avoidance safety rulemakings (i.e.,
congestion management systems). We
welcome recommendations on how to
improve or streamline the off-cycle
technology approval process.
Sections III and V describe tractor and
vocational vehicle technologies,
respectively, that the agencies anticipate
may qualify for these off-cycle credit
provisions.
(b) Powertrain Testing
The agencies are proposing a
powertrain test option to allow for a
robust way to quantify the benefits of
CO2 reducing technologies that are a
part of the powertrain (conventional or
hybrid) that are not captured in the
GEM simulation. Powertrain testing and
certification was included as one of the
NAS recommendations in the Phase 2
–First Report.98 Some of these
improvements are transient fuel control,
engine and transmission control
integration and hybrid systems. To limit
the amount of testing, the powertrain
would be divided into families and
powertrains would be tested in a limited
number of simulated vehicles that cover
the range of vehicles in which the
powertrain would be installed. The
powertrain test results would then be
98 National Academy of Science. ‘‘Reducing the
Fuel Consumption and GHG Emissions of Mediumand Heavy-Duty Vehicles, Phase Two, First
Report.’’ 2014. Recommendation 1.6. However, the
agencies are not proposing to allow for the use of
manufacturer derived and verified models of the
powertrain within GEM.
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used to override the engine and
transmission simulation portion of
GEM.
The largest proposed change from the
Phase 1 powertrain procedure is that
only the advanced powertrain would
need to be tested (as opposed to the
Phase 1 requirement where both the
advanced powertrain and the
conventional powertrain had to be
tested). This change is possible because
the proposed GEM simulation uses the
engine fuel map and torque curve from
the actual engine in the vehicle to be
certified. For the powertrain results to
be used broadly across all the vehicles
that the powertrain would go into, a
matrix of 8 to 9 tests would be needed
per vehicle cycle. These tests would
cover the range of coefficient of drag,
coefficient of rolling resistance, vehicle
mass and axle ratio of the vehicles that
the powertrain will be installed in. The
main output of this matrix of tests
would be fuel mass as a function of
positive work and average transmission
output speed over average vehicle
speed. This matrix of test results would
then be used to calculate the vehicle’s
CO2 emissions by taking the work per
ton-mile from the GEM simulation and
multiplying it by the interpolated work
specific fuel mass from the powertrain
test and mass of CO2 to mass of fuel
ratio.
Along with proposing changes to how
the powertrain results are used, the
agencies are also proposing changes to
the procedures that describe how to
carry out a powertrain test. The changes
are to give additional guidance on
controlling the temperature of the
powertrains intake-air, oil, coolant,
block, head, transmission, battery, and
power electronics so that they are
within their expected ranges for normal
operation. The equations that describe
the vehicle model are proposed to be
changed to allow for input of the axle’s
efficiency, driveline rotational inertia,
as well as the mechanical and electrical
accessory loads.
The determine the positive work and
average transmission output speed over
average vehicle speed in GEM for the
vehicle that will be certified, the
agencies have defined a generic
powertrain for each vehicle category.
The agencies are requesting comment on
if the generic powertrains should be
modified according to specific aspects
of the actual powertrain. For example
using the engine’s rated power to scale
the generic engine’s torque curve.
Similarly, the transmission gear ratios
could be scaled by the axle ratio of the
drive axle, to make sure the generic
engine is operated in GEM at the correct
engine speed.
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(4) Production Vehicle Testing for
Comparison to GEM
The agencies are is proposing to
require tractor and vocational vehicle
manufacturers to annually chassis test 5
production vehicles over the GEM
cycles to verify that relative reductions
simulated in GEM are being achieved in
actual production. See 40 CFR 1037.665.
We would not expect absolute
correlation between GEM results and
chassis testing. GEM makes many
simplifying assumptions that do not
compromise its usefulness for
certification, but do cause it to produce
emission rates different from what
would be measured during a chassis
dynamometer test. Given the limits of
correlation possible between GEM and
chassis testing, we would not expect
such testing to accurately reflect
whether a vehicle was compliant with
the GEM standards. Therefore, we are
proposing to not apply compliance
liability to such testing. Rather, this
testing would be for informational
purposes only. However, we do expect
there to be correlation in a relative
sense. Vehicle to vehicle differences
showing a 10 percent improvement in
GEM should show a similar percent
improvement with chassis
dynamometer testing. Nevertheless,
manufacturers would not be subject to
recall or other compliance actions if
chassis testing did not agree with the
GEM results on a relative basis. Rather,
the agencies would continue evaluate
in-use compliance by verifying GEM
inputs and testing in-use engines.
EPA believes this chassis test program
is necessary because of our experience
implementing regulations for heavyduty engines. In the past, manufacturers
have designed engines that have much
lower emissions on the duty cycles than
occur during actual use. By proposing
this simple test program, we hope to be
able to identify such issues earlier and
to dissuade any attempts to design
solely to the certification test. We also
expect the results of this testing to help
inform the need for any further changes
to GEM.
As already noted in Section II.B.(1), it
can be expensive to build chassis test
cells for certification. However, EPA is
proposing to structure this pilot-scale
program to minimize the costs. First, we
are proposing that this chassis testing
would not need to comply with the
same requirements as would apply for
official certification testing. This would
allow testing to be performed in
developmental test cells with simple
portable analyzers. Second, since the
proposed program would require only 5
tests per year, manufacturers without
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their own chassis testing facility would
be able to contract with a third party to
perform the testing. Finally, EPA
proposes to apply this testing to only
those manufacturers with annual
production in excess of 20,000 vehicles.
We request comment on this proposed
testing requirement. Commenters are
encouraged to suggest alternate
approaches that could achieve the
assurance that the projected emissions
reductions would occur in actual use.
(5) Use of GEM in Establishing Proposed
Numerical Standards
Just like in Phase 1, the agencies are
proposing specific numerical standards
against which tractors and vocational
vehicles would be evaluated using GEM
(We propose that trailers use a
simplified equation-based approach that
was derived from GEM). Although the
proposed standards are performancebased standards, which do not
specifically require the use of any
particular technologies, the agencies
established the proposed standards by
evaluating specific vehicle technology
packages using a prepublication version
of the Phase 2 GEM. This prepublication
version was an intermediate version of
the GEM source code, rather than the
executable file version of GEM, which is
being docketed for this proposal and is
available on EPA’s GEM Web page. Both
the GEM source code and the GEM
executable file are generally
functionally equivalent.
The agencies determined the
proposed numerical standards
essentially by evaluating certain specific
technology packages representing the
packages we are projecting to be feasible
in the Phase 2 time frame. For each
technology package, GEM was used
determine a cycle-weighted g/ton-mile
emission rate and a gal/1,000 ton-mile
fuel consumption rate. These GEM
results were then essentially averaged
together, weighted by the adoption rates
the agencies are projecting for each
technology package and for each model
year of standards. Consider as an
oversimplified example of two
technology packages for Class 8 low-roof
sleepers cabs: one package that resulted
in 60 g/ton-mile and a second that
resulted in 80 g/ton-mile. If we project
that the first package could be applied
to 50 percent of the Class 8 low-roof
sleeper cab fleet in MY 2027, and that
the rest of the fleet could do no better
than the second technology package,
then we would set the fleet average
standard at 70 g/ton-mile (0.5 · 60 + 0.5
· 80 = 70).
Formal external peer review and
expert external user review was then
conducted on the version of the GEM
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source code that was used to calculate
the numerical values of the proposed
standards. It was discovered via these
external review processes that the GEM
source code contained some minor
software ‘‘bugs.’’ These bugs were then
corrected by EPA and the Phase 2
proposed GEM executable file was
derived from this corrected version of
the GEM source code. Moreover, we
expect to also receive technical
comments during the comment period
that could potentially identify
additional GEM software bugs, which
would lead EPA to make additional
changes to GEM before the Final Rule.
Nevertheless, EPA has repeated the
analysis described above using the
corrected version of the GEM source
code that was used to create the
proposed GEM executable file. The
results of this analysis are available in
the docket to this proposal.99
Thus, even without the agencies
making any changes in our projections
of technology effectiveness or market
adoption rates, it is likely that further
revisions to GEM could result in us
finalizing different numerical values for
the standards. It is important to note
that the agencies would not necessarily
consider such GEM-based numerical
changes by themselves to be changes in
the stringency of the standards. Rather,
we believe that stringency is more
appropriately evaluated in technological
terms; namely, by evaluating technology
effectiveness and the market adoption
rates of technologies. Nevertheless, the
agencies will docket any updates and
supporting information in a timely
manner.
D. Proposed Engine Test Procedures and
Engine Standards
For the most part, the proposed Phase
2 engine standards are a continuation of
the Phase 1 program, but with more
stringent standards for compressionignition engines. Nevertheless, the
agencies are proposing important
changes related to the test procedures
and compliance provisions. These
changes are described below.
As already discussed in Section II.B.
the agencies are proposing a regulatory
structure in which engine technologies
are evaluated using engine-specific test
procedures as well using GEM, which is
vehicle-based. We are proposing
separate standards for each procedure.
The proposed engine standards
described in Section II.D.(2) and the
proposed vehicle standards described in
99 See Memorandum to the Docket ‘‘Numerical
Standards for Tractors, Trailers, and Vocational
Vehicles Based on the June 2015 GEM Executable
Code.
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40191
Sections III and V are based on the same
engine technology, which is described
in Section II.D.(2). We request comment
on whether the engine and vehicle
standards should be based on the same
projected technology. As described
below, while the agencies projected the
same engine technology for engine
standards and for vehicle standards, we
separately projected the technology that
would be appropriate for:
• Gasoline vocational engines and
vehicles
• Diesel vocational engines and
vehicles
• Tractor engines and vehicles
Before addressing the engine
standards and engine technology in
Section II.D.(2), the agencies describe
the test procedures that would be used
to evaluate these technologies in Section
II.D.(1) below. We believe that without
first understanding the test procedures,
the numerical engine standards would
not have the proper context.
(1) Engine Test Procedures
The Phase 1 engine standards relied
on the engine test procedures specified
in 40 CFR part 1065. These procedures
were previously used by EPA to regulate
criteria pollutants such as NOX and PM,
and few changes were needed to employ
them for purposes of the Phase 1
standards. The agencies are proposing
significant changes to two areas for
Phase 2: (1) cycle weighting; and (2)
GEM inputs. (Note that EPA is also
proposing some minor changes to the
basic part 1065 test procedures, as
described in Section XIII).
The diesel (i.e., compression-ignition)
engine test procedure relies on two
separate engine test cycles. The first is
the Heavy-duty Federal Test Procedure
(Heavy-duty FTP) that includes
transient operation typified by frequent
accelerations and decelerations, similar
to urban or suburban driving. The
second is the Supplemental Engine Test
(SET) which includes 13 steady-state
test points. The SET was adopted by
EPA to address highway cruise
operation and other nominally steadystate operation. However, it is important
to note that it was intended as a
supplemental test cycle and not
necessarily to replicate precisely any
specific in-use operation.
The gasoline (i.e., spark-ignition)
engine test procedure relies on a single
engine test cycle: a gasoline version of
Heavy-duty FTP. The agencies are not
proposing changes to the gasoline
engine test procedures.
It is worth noting that EPA sees great
value in using the same test procedures
for measuring GHG emissions as is used
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for measuring criteria pollutants. From
the manufacturers’ perspective, using
the same procedures minimizes their
test burden. However, EPA sees
additional benefits. First, as already
noted in Section(b), requiring engine
manufacturers to comply with both NOX
and CO2 standards using the same test
procedures discourages alternate
calibrations that would trade NOX
emissions against fuel consumption
depending how the engine or vehicle is
tested. Second, this approach leverages
the work that went into developing the
criteria pollutant cycles. Taken together,
these factors support our decision to
continue to rely on the 40 CFR part 1065
test procedures with only minor
adjustments, such as those described in
Section II.D.(1)(a). Nevertheless, EPA
would consider more substantial
changes if they were necessary to
incentivize meaningful technology
changes, similar to the changes being
made to GEM for Phase 2 to address
additional technologies.
(a) SET Cycle Weighting
The SET cycle was adopted by EPA in
2000 and modified in 2005 from a
discrete-mode test to a ramped-modal
cycle to broadly cover the most
significant part of the speed and torque
map for heavy-duty engines, defined by
three non-idle speeds and three relative
torques. The low speed is often called
the ‘‘A speed’’, the intermediate speed
is often called the ‘‘B speed’’, and the
high speed is often called the ‘‘C
speed.’’ As is shown in Table II–1, the
SET weights these three speeds at 23
percent, 39 percent, and 23 percent.
TABLE II–1—SET MODES WEIGHTING
FACTOR IN PHASE 1
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Speed, % load
Weighting factor in Phase 1
(%)
Idle ........................................
A, 100 ...................................
B, 50 .....................................
B, 75 .....................................
A, 50 .....................................
A, 75 .....................................
A, 25 .....................................
B, 100 ...................................
B, 25 .....................................
C, 100 ...................................
C, 25 .....................................
C, 75 .....................................
C, 50 .....................................
Total ......................................
Total A Speed .......................
Total B Speed .......................
Total C Speed ......................
15
8
10
10
5
5
5
9
10
8
5
5
5
100
23
39
23
The C speed is typically in the range
of 1800 rpm for current HHD engine
designs. However, it is becoming less
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common for engines to operate often in
such a high speed in real world driving
condition, and especially not during
cruise vehicle speed between 55 and 65
mph. The agencies receive confidential
business information from a few vehicle
manufacturers that support this
observation. Thus, although the current
SET represents highway operation better
than the FTP cycle, it is not an ideal
cycle to represent future highway
operation. Furthermore, given the recent
trend configure drivetrains to operate
engines at speeds down to a range of
1150–1200 rpm at vehicle speed of
65mph. This trend would make the
typical highway engine speeds even
further away from C speed.
To address this issue, the agencies are
proposing new weighting factors for the
Phase 2 GHG and fuel consumption
standards. The proposed new SET mode
weightings move most of C weighting to
‘‘A’’ speed, as shown in Table II–2. It
would also slightly reduce the
weighting factor on the idle speed.
The agencies request comment on the
proposed reweighting.
TABLE II–2—PROPOSED SET MODES
WEIGHTING FACTOR IN PHASE 2
Proposed
weighting factor in Phase 2
(%)
Speed, % load
Idle ........................................
A, 100 ...................................
B, 50 .....................................
B, 75 .....................................
A, 50 .....................................
A, 75 .....................................
A, 25 .....................................
B, 100 ...................................
B, 25 .....................................
C, 100 ...................................
C, 25 .....................................
C, 75 .....................................
C, 50 .....................................
Total ......................................
Total A Speed .......................
Total B Speed .......................
Total C Speed ......................
12
9
10
10
12
12
12
9
9
2
1
1
1
100
45
38
5
(b) Measuring GEM Engine Inputs
Although GEM does not apply
directly to engine certification,
implementing the Phase 2 GEM would
impact engine manufacturers. To
recognize the contribution of the engine
in GEM the engine fuel map, full load
torque curve and motoring torque curve
have to be input into GEM. To insure
the robustness of each of those inputs,
a standard procedure has to be followed.
Both the full load and motoring torque
curve procedures are already defined in
40 CFR part 1065 for engine testing.
However, the fuel mapping procedure
being proposed would be new. The
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agencies have compared the proposed
procedure against other accepted engine
mapping procedures with a number of
engines at various labs including EPA’s
NVFEL, Southwest Research Institute
sponsored by the agencies, and
Environment Canada’s laboratory.100
The proposed procedure was selected
because it proved to be accurate and
repeatable, while limiting the test
burden to create the fuel map. This
proposed provision is consistent with
NAS’s recommendation (3.8).
One important consideration is the
need to correct measured fuel
consumption rates for the carbon and
energy content of the test fuel. For
engine tests, we propose to continue the
Phase 1 approach, which is specified in
40 CFR 1036.530. We propose a similar
approach to GEM fuel maps in Phase 2.
The agencies are proposing that
engine manufacturers must certify fuel
maps as part of their certification to the
engine standards, and that they be
required to provide those maps to
vehicle manufacturers beginning with
MY 2020.101 The one exception to this
requirement would be for cases in
which the engine manufacturer certifies
based on powertrain testing, as
described in Section (c). In such cases,
engine manufacturers would not be
required to also certify the otherwise
applicable fuel maps. We are not
proposing that vehicle manufacturers be
allowed to develop their own fuel maps
for engines they do not manufacture.
The current engine test procedures
also require the development of
regeneration emission rate and
frequency factors to account for the
emission changes for criteria pollutants
during a regeneration event. In Phase 1,
the agencies adopted provisions to
exclude CO2 emissions and fuel
consumption due to regeneration.
However, for Phase 2, we propose to
include CO2 emissions and fuel
consumption due to regeneration over
the FTP and RMC cycles as determined
using the infrequently regenerating
aftertreatment devices (IRAF) provisions
in 40 CFR 1065.680. We do not believe
this would significantly impact the
stringency of the proposed standards
100 US EPA, ‘‘Technical Research Workshop
supporting EPA and NHTSA Phase 2 Standards for
MD/HD Greenhouse Gas and Fuel Efficiency—
December 10 and 11, 2014,’’ https://www.epa.gov/
otaq/climate/regs-heavy-duty.htm.
101 Current normal vehicle manufacturing
processes generally result in many vehicles being
produced with prior model year engines. For
example, we expect that some MY 2021 vehicles
will be produced with MY 2020 engines. Thus, we
are proposing to require engine manufacturers to
begin providing fuel maps in 2020 so that vehicle
manufacturers could run GEM to certify MY 2021
vehicles with MY 2020 engines.
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because manufacturers have already
made great progress in reducing the
impact of regeneration emissions since
2007. Nevertheless, we believe it would
be prudent to begin accounting for
regeneration emissions to discourage
manufacturers from adopting
compliance strategies that would
reverse this trend. We request comment
on this requirement.
We are not proposing, however, to
include fuel consumption due to
regeneration in the creation of the fuel
map used in GEM for vehicle
compliance. We believe that the
proposed requirements for the dutycycle standards, along with market
forces that already exist, would create
sufficient incentives to reduce fuel
consumption during regeneration over
the entire fuel map.
(c) Engine Test Procedures for
Replicating Powertrain Tests
As described in Section II.B.(2)(b), the
agencies are proposing a powertrain test
option to quantify the benefits of CO2
reducing powertrain technologies.
These powertrain test results would
then be used to override the engine and
transmission simulation portion of
GEM. The agencies are proposing to
require that any manufacturer choosing
to use this option also measure engine
speed and engine torque during the
powertrain test so that the engine’s
performance during the powertrain test
could be replicated in a non-powertrain
engine test cell. Subsequent engine
testing would be conducted using the
normal part 1065 engine test
procedures, and g/hp-hr CO2 results
would be compared to the levels the
manufacturer reported during
certification. Such testing would apply
for both confirmatory and selective
enforcement audit testing.
Under the proposed regulations,
engine manufacturers certifying
powertrain performance (instead of or in
addition to the multi-point fuel maps)
would be held responsible for
powertrain test results. If the engine
manufacturer does not certify
powertrain performance and instead
certifies only the multi-point fuel maps,
it would held responsible for fuel map
performance rather than the powertrain
test results. Engine manufacturers
certifying both would be responsible for
both.
(d) CO2 From Urea SCR Systems
For diesel engines utilizing urea SCR
emission control systems for NOX
reduction, the agencies are proposing to
allow correction of the final engine fuel
map and powertrain duty cycle CO2
emission results to account for the
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contribution of CO2 from the urea
injected into the exhaust. This urea
could contribute up to 1 percent of the
total CO2 emissions from the engine.
Since current urea production methods
use gaseous CO2 captured from the
atmosphere (along with NH3), CO2 from
urea consumption does not represent a
net carbon emission. This adjustment is
necessary so that fuel maps developed
from CO2 measurements would be
consistent with fuel maps from direct
measurements of fuel flow rates. Thus,
we are only proposing to allow this
correction for emission tests where CO2
emissions are determined from direct
measurement of CO2 and not from fuel
flow measurement, which would not be
impacted by CO2 from urea.
We note that this correction would be
voluntary for manufacturers, and expect
that some manufacturers may determine
that the correction is too small to be of
concern. The agencies will use this
correction with any engines for which
the engine manufacturer applied the
correction for its fuel maps during
certification.
We are not proposing this correction
for engine test results with respect to the
engine CO2 standards. Both the Phase 1
standards and the proposed standards
for CO2 from diesel engines are based on
test results that included CO2 from urea.
In other words, these standards are
consistent with using a test procedure
that does not correct for CO2 from urea.
We request comment on whether it
would be appropriate to allow this
correction for the Phase 2 engine CO2
standards, but also adjust the standards
to reflect the correction. At this time, we
believe that reducing the numerical
value of the CO2 standards by 1 g/hphr would make the standards consistent
with measurement that are corrected for
CO2 from urea. However, we also
request comment on the appropriateness
of applying a 2 g/hp-hr adjustment
should we determine it would better
reflect the urea contribution for current
engines.
(e) Potential Alternative Certification
Approach
In Section II.B.(2)(b), we explained
that although GEM does not apply
directly to engine certification,
implementing the Phase 2 GEM would
impact engine manufacturers by
requiring that they measure engine fuel
maps. In Section II.B.(2), the agencies
noted that some stakeholders may have
concerns about the proposed regulatory
structure that would require engine
manufacturers to provide detailed fuel
consumption maps for GEM. Given such
concerns, the agencies are requesting
comment on an approach that could
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40193
mitigate the concerns by allowing both
vehicle and engine to use the same
driving cycles for certification. The
detailed description of this alternative
certification approach can be seen in the
draft RIA. We are requesting comment
on allowing this approach as an option,
or as a replacement to the proposed
approach. Commenters supporting this
approach should address possible
impacts on the stringency of the
proposed standards.
This approach utilizes GEM with a
default engine fuel map pre-defined by
the agency to run a number of predefined vehicle configurations over
three certification cycles. Engine torque
and speed profile would be obtained
from the simulations, and would be
used to specify engine dynamometer
commands for engine testing. The
results of this testing would be a CO2
map as function of the integrated work
and the ratio of averaged engine speed
(N) to averaged vehicle speed (V)
defined as (N/V) over each certification
cycle. In vehicle certification, vehicle
manufacturers would run GEM with the
to-be-certified vehicle configuration and
the agency default engine fuel map
separately for each GEM cycle.
Applying the total work and N/V
resulted from the GEM simulations to
the CO2 map obtained from engine tests
would determine CO2 consumption for
vehicle certification. For engine
certification, we are considering
allowing the engine to be certified based
on one of the points conducted during
engine alternative CO2 map tests
mentioned above rather than based on
the FTP and SET cycle testing.
(2) Proposed Engine Standards for CO2
and Fuel Consumption
We are proposing to maintain the
existing Phase 1 regulatory structure for
engine standards, which had separate
standards for spark-ignition engines
(such as gasoline engines) and
compression-ignition engines (such as
diesel engines), but we are proposing
changes to how these standards would
apply to natural gas fueled engines. As
discussed in Section II.B.(2)(b), the
agencies see important advantages to
maintaining separate engines standards,
such as improved compliance assurance
and better control during transient
engine operation.
Phase 1 also applied different test
cycles depending on whether the engine
is used for tractors, vocational vehicles,
or both, and we propose to continue this
as well.102 We assume that CO2 at the
102 Engine classification is set forth in 40 CFR
1036.801. Spark-ignition means relating to a
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end of Phase 1 is the baseline of Phase
2. Table II–3 shows the Phase 1 CO2
standards for diesel engines, which
serve as the baseline for our analysis of
the proposed Phase 2 standards.
TABLE II–3—PHASE 2 BASELINE CO2 PERFORMANCE
(g/bhp-hr)
LHDD–FTP
MHDD–FTP
HHDD–FTP
MHDD–SET
HHDD–SET
576
576
555
487
460
The gasoline engine baseline CO2 is
627 (g/bhp-hr). The agencies used the
baseline engine to assess the potential of
the technologies described in the
following sections. As described below,
the agencies are proposing new
compression-ignition engine standards
for Phase 2 that would require
additional reductions in CO2 emissions
and fuel consumption beyond the
baseline. However, as also described
below in Section II.B.(2)(b), we are not
proposing more stringent CO2 or fuel
consumption standards for new heavyduty gasoline engines. Note, however,
that we are projecting some small
improvement in gasoline engine
performance that would be recognized
over the vehicle cycles.
For heavy-heavy-duty diesel engines
to be installed in Class 7 and 8
combination tractors, the agencies are
proposing the standards shown in Table
II–4.103 The proposed MY 2027
standards for engines installed in
tractors would require engine
manufacturers to achieve, on average, a
4.2 percent reduction in fuel
consumption and CO2 emissions beyond
the Phase 1 standard. We propose to
adopt interim engine standards in MY
2021 and MY 2024 that would require
diesel engine manufacturers to achieve,
on average, 1.5 percent and 3.7 percent
reductions in fuel consumption and CO2
emissions, respectively.
TABLE II–4—PROPOSED PHASE 2 HEAVY-DUTY TRACTOR ENGINE STANDARDS FOR ENGINES104 OVER THE SET CYCLE
Medium heavyduty diesel
Model year
Standard
2021–2023 ......................................
CO2 (g/bhp-hr) ........................................................................................
Fuel Consumption (gallon/100 bhp-hr) ...................................................
CO2 (g/bhp-hr) ........................................................................................
Fuel Consumption (gallon/100 bhp-hr) ...................................................
CO2 (g/bhp-hr) ........................................................................................
Fuel Consumption (gallon/100 bhp-hr) ...................................................
2024–2026 ......................................
2027 and Later ...............................
Forcompression-ignition engines
fitted into vocational vehicles, the
agencies are proposing MY 2027
standards that would require engine
manufacturers to achieve, on average, a
4.0 percent reduction in fuel
consumption and CO2 emissions beyond
the Phase 1 standard. We propose to
adopt interim engine standards in MY
2021 and MY 2024 that would require
diesel engine manufacturers to achieve,
on average, 2.0 percent and 3.5 percent
reductions in fuel consumption and CO2
emissions, respectively.
Table II–5 presents the CO2 and fuel
consumption standards the agencies
Heavy heavyduty diesel
479
4.7053
469
4.6071
466
4.5776
453
4.4499
443
4.3517
441
4.3320
propose for compression-ignition
engines to be installed in vocational
vehicles. The first set of standards
would take effect with MY 2021, and
the second set would take effect with
MY 2024.
TABLE II–5—PROPOSED VOCATIONAL DIESEL ENGINE STANDARDS OVER THE HEAVY-DUTY FTP CYCLE
Light heavyduty diesel
Model year
Standard
2021–2023 ............................
CO2 Standard (g/bhp-hr) ....................................................
Fuel Consumption Standard (gallon/100 bhp-hr) ...............
CO2 Standard (g/bhp-hr) ....................................................
Fuel Consumption (gallon/100 bhp-hr) ...............................
CO2 Standard (g/bhp-hr) ....................................................
Fuel Consumption (gallon/100 bhp-hr) ...............................
2024–2026 ............................
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2027 and Later .....................
Medium heavyduty diesel
565
5.5501
556
5.4617
553
5.4322
565
5.5501
556
5.4617
553
5.4322
Heavy heavyduty diesel
544
5.3438
536
5.2652
533
5.2358
Although both EPA and NHTSA are
proposing to begin the Phase 2 engine
standards, EPA considered proposing
Phase 2 standards that would begin
before MY 2021—that is with less lead
time. NHTSA is required by statute to
gasoline-fueled engine or any other type of engine
with a spark plug (or other sparking device) and
with operating characteristics similar to the Otto
combustion cycle. However, engines that meet the
definition of spark-ignition per 1036.801, but are
regulated as diesel engines under 40 CFR part 86
(for criteria pollutants) are treated as compressionignition engines for GHG standards. Compression-
ignition means relating to a type of reciprocating,
internal-combustion engine that is not a sparkignition engine, however, engines that meet the
definition of compression-ignition per 1036.801,
but are regulated as Otto-cycle engines under 40
CFR part 86 are treated as spark-ignition engines for
GHG standards.
103 The agencies note that the CO and fuel
2
consumption standards for Class 7 and 8
combination tractors do not cover gasoline or LHDD
engines, as those are not used in Class 7 and 8
combination tractors.
104 Tractor engine standards apply to all engines,
without regard to the engine-cycle classification.
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provide four models years of lead time,
while EPA is required only to provide
lead time ‘‘necessary to permit the
development and application of the
requisite technology’’ (CAA Section
202(a)(2)). However, as noted in Section
I, lead time cannot be separated for
other relevant factors such as costs,
reliability, and stringency. Proposing
these standards before 2021 could
increase the risk of reliability issues in
the early years. Given the limited
number of engine models that each
manufacturer produces, managing that
many new standards would be
problematic (i.e., new Phase 1 standards
in 2017, new Phase 2 EPA standards in
2018, 2019, or 2020, new standards in
2021, 2024, and again in 2027).
Considering these challenges, EPA
determined that earlier model year
standards would not be appropriate,
especially given the value of
harmonizing the NHTSA and EPA
standards.
(a) Feasibility of the Diesel
(Compression-Ignition) Engine
Standards
In this section, the agencies discuss
our assessment of the feasibility of the
proposed engine standards and the
extent to which they would conform to
our respective statutory authority and
responsibilities. More details on the
technologies discussed here can be
found in the Draft RIA Chapter 2.3. The
feasibility of these technologies is
further discussed in draft RIA Chapter
2.7 for tractor and vocational vehicle
engines. Note also, that the agencies are
considering adopting engine standards
with less lead time, and may do so in
the Final Rules. These standards are
discussed in Section (e).
Based on the technology analysis
described below, the agencies can
project a technology path exists to allow
manufacturers to meet the proposed
final Phase 2 standards by 2027, as well
as meeting the intermediate 2021 and
2024 standards. The agencies also
project that manufacturers would be
able to meet these standards at a
reasonable cost and without adverse
impacts on in-use reliability. Note that
the agencies are still evaluating whether
these same standards could be met
sooner, as was analyzed in Alternative
4.
In general, engine performance for
CO2 emissions and fuel consumption
can be improved by improving
combustion and reducing energy losses.
More specifically, the agencies have
identified the following key areas where
fuel efficiency can be improved:
• Combustion optimization
• Turbocharging system
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• Engine friction and other parasitic
losses
• Exhaust aftertreatment
• Engine breathing system
• Engine downsizing
• Waste heat recovery
• Transient control for vocational
engines only
The agencies are proposing to phasein the standards from 2021 through
2027 so that manufacturers could
gradually introduce these technologies.
For most of these improvements, the
agencies project manufacturers could
begin applying them to about 45–50
percent of their heavy-duty engines by
2021, 90–95 percent by 2024, and
ultimately apply them to 100 percent of
their heavy-duty engines by 2027.
However, for some of these
improvements (such as waste heat
recovery and engine downsizing) we
project lower application rates in the
Phase 2 time frame. This phase-in
structure is consistent with the normal
manner in which manufacturers
introduce new technology to manage
limited R&D budgets and well as to
allow them to work with fleets to fully
evaluate in-use reliability before a
technology is applied fleet-wide. The
agencies believe the proposed phase-in
schedule would allow manufacturers to
complete these normal processes. As
described in Section (e), the agencies are
also requesting comment on whether
manufacturers could complete these
development steps more quickly so that
they could meet these standards sooner.
Based on our technology assessment
described below, the proposed engine
standards appear to be consistent with
the agencies’ respective statutory
authorities. All of the technologies with
high penetration rates above 50 percent
have already been demonstrated to some
extent in the field or in research
laboratories, although some
development work remains to be
completed. We note that our feasibility
analysis for these engine standards is
not based on projecting 100 percent
application for any technology until
2027. We believe that projecting less
than 100 percent application is
appropriate and gives us additional
confidence that the interim standards
would be feasible.
Because this analysis considers
reductions from engines meeting the
Phase 1 standards, it assumes
manufacturers would continue to
include the same compliance margins as
Phase 1. In other words, a manufacturer
currently declaring FCLs 10 g/hp-hr
above its measured emission rates (in
order to account for production and testto-test variability) would continue to do
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the same in Phase 2. We request
comment on this assumption.
The agencies have carefully
considered the costs of applying these
technologies, which are summarized in
Section II.D.(2) (d). These costs appear
to be reasonable on both a per engine
basis, and when considering payback
periods.105 The engine technologies are
discussed in more detail below. Readers
are encouraged to see the draft RIA
Chapter 2 for additional details (and
underlying references) about our
feasibility analysis.
(i) Combustion Optimization
Although manufacturers are making
significant improvements in combustion
to meet the Phase 1 engine standards,
the agencies project that even more
improvement would be possible after
2018. For example, improvements to
fuel injection systems would allow more
flexible fuel injection capability with
higher injection pressure, which can
provide more opportunities to improve
engine fuel efficiency. Further
optimization of piston bowls and
injector tips would also improve engine
performance and fuel efficiency. We
project that a reduction of up to 1.0
percent is feasible in the 2024 model
year through the use of these
technologies, although it would likely
apply to only 95 percent of engines until
2027.
Another important area of potential
improvement is advanced engine
control incorporating model based
calibration to reduce losses of control
during transient operation.
Improvements in computing power and
speed would make it possible to use
much more sophisticated algorithms
that are more predictive than today’s
controls. Because such controls are only
beneficial during transient operation,
they would reduce emission over the
FTP cycle, and during in-use operation,
they would not reduce emissions over
the SET cycle. Thus the agencies are
projecting model based control
reductions only for vocational engines.
Although this control concept is not
currently available, we project model
based controls achieving a 2 percent
improvement in transient emissions
could be in production for some engine
models by 2021. By 2027, we project
over one-third of all vocational diesel
engines would incorporate model-based
controls.
(ii) Turbocharging System
Many advanced turbocharger
technologies can be potentially added
105 See Section IX.M for additional information
about payback periods.
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into production in the time frame
between 2021 and 2027, and some of
them are already in production, such as
mechanical or electric turbo-compound,
more efficient variable geometry
turbine, and Detroit Diesel’s patented
asymmetric turbocharger. A turbo
compound system extracts energy from
the exhaust to provide additional
power. Mechanical turbo-compounding
includes a power turbine located
downstream of the turbine which in
turn is connected to the crankshaft to
supply additional power. On-highway
demonstrations of this technology began
in the early 1980s. It was used first in
heavy duty production by Detroit Diesel
for their DD15 and DD16 engines and
reportedly provided a 3 to 5 percent fuel
consumption reduction. Results are
duty cycle dependent, and require
significant time at high load to see a fuel
efficiency improvement. Light load
factor vehicles can expect little or no
benefit. Volvo reports two to four
percent fuel consumption improvement
in line haul applications, which could
be in production even by 2020.
(iii) Engine Friction and Parasitic Losses
The friction associated with each
moving part in an engine results in a
small loss of engine power. For
example, frictional losses occur at
bearings, in the valvetrain, and at the
piston-cylinder interface. Taken
together such losses represent a large
fraction of all energy lost in an engine.
For Phase 1, the agencies projected a 1–
2 percent reduction in fuel consumption
due to friction reduction. However, new
information leads us to project that an
additional 1.4 percent reduction would
be possible for some engines by 2021
and all engines by 2027. These
reductions would be possible due to
improvements in bearing materials,
lubricants, and new accessory designs
such as variable-speed pumps.
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(iv) Aftertreatment Optimization
All diesel engines manufacturers are
already using diesel particulate filter
(DPF) to reduce particulate matter (PM)
and selective catalytic reduction (SCR)
to reduce NOX emissions. The agencies
see two areas in which improved
aftertreatment systems can also result in
lower fuel consumption. First, increased
SCR efficiency could allow reoptimization of combustion for better
fuel consumption because the SCR
would be capable of reducing higher
engine-out NOX emissions. Second,
improved designs could reduce
backpressure on the engine to lower
pumping losses. The agencies project
the combined impact of such
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improvements could be 0.6 percent or
more.
fundamentally revise the engine test
procedure at this time.
(v) Engine Breathing System
Various high efficiency air handling
(for both intake air and exhaust)
processes could be produced in the
2020 and 2024 time frame. To maximize
the efficiency of such processes,
induction systems may be improved by
manufacturing more efficiently designed
flow paths (including those associated
with air cleaners, chambers, conduit,
mass air flow sensors and intake
manifolds) and by designing such
systems for improved thermal control.
Improved turbocharging and air
handling systems would likely include
higher efficiency EGR systems and
intercoolers that reduce frictional
pressure loss while maximizing the
ability to thermally control induction air
and EGR. EGR systems that often rely
upon an adverse pressure gradient
(exhaust manifold pressures greater than
intake manifold pressures) must be
reconsidered and their adverse pressure
gradients minimized. Other components
that offer opportunities for improved
flow efficiency include cylinder heads,
ports and exhaust manifolds to further
reduce pumping losses by about 1
percent.
(vii) Waste Heat Recovery
More than 40 percent of all energy
loss in an engine is lost as heat to the
exhaust and engine coolant. For many
years, manufacturers have been using
turbochargers to convert some of the
waste heat in the exhaust into usable
mechanical power than is used to
compress the intake air. Manufacturers
have also been working to use a Rankine
cycle-based system to extract additional
heat energy from the engine. Such
systems are often called waste heat
recovery (WHR) systems. The possible
sources of energy include the exhaust,
recirculated exhaust gases, compressed
charge air, and engine coolant. The
basic approach with WHR is to use
waste heat from one or more of these
sources to evaporate a working fluid,
which is passed through a turbine or
equivalent expander to create
mechanical or electrical power, then recondensed.
Prior to the Phase 1 Final Rule, the
NAS estimated the potential for WHR to
reduce fuel consumption by up to 10
percent.106 However, the agencies do
not believe such levels would be
achievable within the Phase 2 time
frame. There currently are no
commercially available WHR systems
for diesel engines, although research
prototype systems are being tested by
some manufacturers. The agencies
believe it is likely a commercially-viable
WHR capable of reducing fuel
consumption by over three percent
would be available in the 2021 to 2024
time frame. Cost and complexity may
remain high enough to limit the use of
such systems in this time frame.
Moreover, packaging constraints and
transient response challenges would
limit the application of WHR systems to
line-haul tractors. Refer to RIA Chapter
2 for a detailed description of these
systems and their applicability. The
agencies project that WHR recovery
could be used on 1 percent of all tractor
engines by 2021, on 5 percent by 2024,
and 15 percent by 2027.
The net cost and effectiveness of
future WHR systems would depend on
the sources of waste heat. Systems that
extract heat from EGR gases may
provide the side benefit of reducing the
size of EGR coolers or eliminating them
altogether. To the extent that WHR
systems use exhaust heat, they would
increase the overall cooling system heat
rejection requirement and likely require
larger radiators. This could have
negative impacts on cooling fan power
(vi) Engine Downsizing
Proper sizing of an engine is an
important component of optimizing a
vehicle for best fuel consumption. This
Phase 2 rule would improve overall
vehicle efficiency, which would result
in a drop in the vehicle power demand
for most operation. This drop moves the
vehicle operating points down to a
lower load zone, which can move the
engine away from the sweet spot.
Engine downsizing combined with
engine downspeeding can allow the
engine to move back to higher loads and
lower speed zone, thus achieving
slightly better fuel economy in the real
world. However, because of the way
engines are tested, little of the benefit of
engine downsizing would be detected
during engine testing (if power density
remains the same) because the engine
test cycles are normalized based on the
full torque curve. Thus the current
engine test is not the best way to
measure the true effectiveness of engine
downsizing. Nevertheless, we project
that some small benefit would be
measured over the engine test cycles—
perhaps up to a one-quarter percent
improvement in fuel consumption. Note
that a bigger benefit would be observed
during GEM simulation, better reflecting
real world improvements. This is
factored into the vehicle standards.
Thus, the agencies see no reason to
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106 See
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needs and vehicle aerodynamics.
Limited engine compartment space
under hood could leave insufficient
room for additional radiator size
increasing. On the other hand, WHR
systems that extract heat from the
engine coolant, could actually improve
overall cooling.
(viii) Technology Packages for Diesel
Engines Installed in Tractors
Typical technology packaged for
diesel engines installed in tractors
basically includes most technologies
mentioned above, which includes
combustion optimization, turbocharging
system, engine friction and other
parasitic losses, exhaust aftertreatment,
engine breathing system, and engine
downsizing. Depending on the
technology maturity of WHR and market
demands, a small number of tractors
could install waste heat recovery device
with Rankine cycle technology. During
the stringency development, the
agencies received strong support from
various stakeholders, where they
graciously provided many confidential
business information (CBI) including
both technology reduction potentials
and estimated market penetrations.
Combining those CBI data with the
agencies’ engineering judgment, Table
II–4 lists those potential technologies
together with the agencies’ estimated
market penetration for tractor engine.
Those reduction values shown as ‘‘SET
reduction’’ are relative to Phase 1
engine, which is shown in Table II–6. It
should be pointed out that the
stringency in Table II–6 are developed
based on the proposed SET reweighting
factors l shown in Table II–2. The
agencies welcome comment on the
market penetration rates listed below.
TABLE II–6—PROJECTED TRACTOR ENGINE TECHNOLOGIES AND REDUCTION
SET mode
SET weighted
reduction (%)
2020–2027
Turbo compound with clutch ...........................................................................
WHR (Rankine cycle) ......................................................................................
Parasitic/Friction (Cyl Kits, pumps, FIE), lubrication .......................................
Aftertreatment (lower dP) ................................................................................
EGR/Intake & exhaust manifolds/Turbo/VVT/Ports .........................................
Combustion/FI/Control .....................................................................................
Downsizing .......................................................................................................
Weighted reduction (%) ...................................................................................
1.8
3.6
1.4
0.6
1.1
1.1
0.3
........................
(ix) Technology Packages for Diesel
Engines Installed in Vocational Vehicles
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Market
penetration
(2021)
%
For compression-ignition engines
fitted into vocational vehicles, the
agencies are proposing MY 2021
standards that would require engine
manufacturers to achieve, on average, a
2.0 percent reduction in fuel
consumption and CO2 emissions beyond
the baseline that is the Phase 1 standard.
Beginning in MY 2024, the agencies are
proposing engine standards that would
require diesel engine manufacturers to
achieve, on average, a 3.5 percent
reduction in fuel consumption and CO2
emissions beyond the Phase 1 baseline
standards for all diesel engines
including LHD, MHD, and HHD. The
agencies are proposing these standards
based on the performance of reduced
parasitics and friction, improved
aftertreatment, combustion
optimization, superchargers with VGT
and bypass, model-based controls,
improved EGR cooling/transport, and
variable valve timing (only in LHD and
MHD engines). The percent reduction
for the MY2021, MY2024, and MY2027
standards is based on the combination
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of technology effectiveness and market
adoption rate projected.
Most of the potential engine related
technologies discussed previously can
be applied here. However, neither the
waste heat technologies with the
Rankine cycle concept nor turbocompound would be applied into
vocational sector due to the inefficient
use of waste heat energy with duty
cycles and applications with more
transient operation than highway
operation. Given the projected cost and
complexity of such systems, we believe
that for the Phase 2 time frame
manufacturers will focus their
development work on tractor
applications (which would have better
payback for operators) rather than
vocational applications. In addition, the
benefits due to engine downsizing,
which can be seen in tractor engines,
may not be clearly seen in vocational
sector, again because this control
technology produces few benefits in
transient operation.
One of the most effective technologies
for vocational engines is the
optimization of transient control. It
would be expected that more advanced
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5
1
45
45
45
45
10
1.5
Market
penetration
(2024)
%
10
5
95
95
95
95
20
3.7
Market
penetration
(2027)
%
10
15
100
100
100
100
30
4.2
transient control including different
levels of model based control and neural
network control package could provide
substantial benefits in vocational
engines due to the extensive transient
operation of these vehicles. For this
technology, the use of the FTP cycle
would drive engine manufacturers to
invest more in transient control to
improve engine efficiency. Other
effective technologies would be
parasitic/friction reduction, as well as
improvements to combustion, air
handling systems, turbochargers, and
aftertreatment systems. Table II–7 below
lists those potential technologies
together with the agencies’ projected
market penetration for vocational
engines. Again, similar to tractor engine,
the technology reduction and market
penetration are estimated by combining
the CBI data together with the agencies’
engineering judgment. Those reduction
values shown as ‘‘FTP reduction’’ are
relative to a Phase 2 baseline engine,
which is shown in Table II–3. The
weighted reductions combine the
emission reduction values weighted by
the market penetration of each
technology).
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TABLE II–7—PROJECTED VOCATIONAL ENGINE TECHNOLOGIES AND REDUCTION
Technology
GHG
emissions
reduction
2020–2027
%
Model based control ........................................................................................
Parasitic/Friction ..............................................................................................
EGR/Air/VVT/Turbo .........................................................................................
Improved AT ....................................................................................................
Combustion Optimization .................................................................................
Weighted reduction (%)–L/M/HHD ..................................................................
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
1.0
........................
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(x) Summary of the Agencies’ Analysis
of the Feasibility of the Proposed Diesel
Engine Standards
The proposed HD Phase 2 standards
are based on adoption rates for
technologies that the agencies regard,
subject to consideration of public
comment, as the maximum feasible for
purposes of EISA Section 32902(k) and
appropriate under CAA Section 202(a)
for the reasons given above. The
agencies believe these technologies can
be adopted at the estimated rates for
these standards within the lead time
provided, as discussed in draft RIA
Chapter 2. The 2021 and 2024 MY
standards are phase-in standards on the
path to the 2027 MY standards and were
developed using less aggressive
application rates and therefore have
lower technology package costs than the
2027 MY standards.
As described in Section II.D.(2)(d)
below, the cost of the proposed
standards is estimated to range from
$270 to $1,698 per engine. This is
slightly higher than the costs for Phase
1, which were estimated to be $234 to
$1,091 per engine. Although the
agencies did not separately determine
fuel savings or emission reductions due
to the engine standards apart from the
vehicle program, it is expected that the
fuel savings would be significantly
larger than these costs, and the emission
reductions would be roughly
proportional to the technology costs
when compared to the corresponding
vehicle program reductions and costs.
Thus, we regard these standards as costeffective. This is true even without
considering payback period. The
proposed phase-in 2021 and 2024 MY
standards are less stringent and less
costly than the proposed 2027 MY
standards. Given that the agencies
believe the proposed standards are
technologically feasible, are highly cost
effective, and highly cost effective when
accounting for the fuel savings, and
have no apparent adverse potential
impacts (e.g., there are no projected
negative impacts on safety or vehicle
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utility), the proposed standards appear
to represent a reasonable choice under
Section 202(a) of the CAA and the
maximum feasible under NHTSA’s EISA
authority at 49 U.S.C. 32902(k)(2).
(b) Basis for Continuing the Phase 1
Spark-Ignited Engine Standard
Today most SI-powered vocational
vehicles are sold as incomplete vehicles
by a vertically integrated chassis
manufacturer, where the incomplete
chassis shares most of the same
technology as equivalent complete
pickups or vans, including the
powertrain. The number of such
incomplete SI-powered vehicles is small
compared to the number of completes.
Another, even less common way that SIpowered vocational vehicles are built is
by a non-integrated chassis
manufacturer purchasing an engine
from a company that also produces
complete and/or incomplete HD pickup
trucks and vans. The resulting market
structure leads manufacturers of heavyduty SI engines to have little market
incentive to develop separate
technology for vocational engines that
are engine-certified. Moreover, the
agencies have not identified a single SI
engine technology that we believe
belongs on engine-certified vocational
engines that we do not also project to be
used on complete heavy-duty pickups
and vans.
In light of this market structure, when
the agencies considered the feasibility of
more stringent Phase 2 standards for SI
vocational engines, we identified the
following key questions:
1. Will there be technologies available
that could reduce in-use emissions from
vocational SI engines?
2. Would these technologies be
applied to complete vehicles and
carried-over to engine certified engines
without a new standard?
3. Would these technologies be
applied to meet the vehicle-based
standards described in Section V?
4. What are the drawbacks associated
with setting a technology-forcing Phase
2 standard for SI engines?
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Market
penetration
2021
%
25
60
50
50
50
2.0
Market
penetration
2024
%
30
90
90
90
90
3.5
Market
penetration
2027
%
40
100
100
100
100
4.0
With respect to the first and second
questions, as noted in Chapter 2.6 of the
draft RIA, the agencies have identified
improved lubricants, friction reduction,
and cylinder deactivation as
technologies that could potentially
reduce in-use emissions from vocational
engines; and the agencies have further
determined that to the extent these
technologies would be viable for
complete vehicles, they would also be
applied to engine-certified engines.
Nevertheless, significant uncertainty
remains about how much benefit would
be provided by these technologies. It is
possible that the combined impact of
these technologies would be one percent
or less. With respect to the third
question, we believe that to the extent
these technologies are viable and
effective, they would be applied to meet
the vehicle-based standards for
vocational vehicles.
At this time, it appears the fourth
question regarding drawbacks is the
most important. The agencies could
propose a technology forcing standard
for vocational SI engines based on a
projection of each of these technologies
being effective for these engines.
However, as already noted in Section I,
the agencies see value in setting the
standards at levels that would not
require every projected technology to
work as projected. Effectively requiring
technologies to match our current
projections would create the risk that
the standards would not be feasible if
even a single one of technologies failed
to match our projections. This risk is
amplified for SI engines because of the
very limited product offerings, which
provide far fewer opportunities for
averaging than exist for CI engines.
Given the relatively small improvement
projected, and the likelihood that most
or all of this improvement would result
anyway from the complete pickup and
van standards and the vocational
vehicle-based standards, we do not
believe such risk is justified or needed.
The approach the agencies are
proposing accomplishes the same
objective without the attendant
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potential risk. With this approach, the
Phase 1 SI engine standard for these
engines would remain in place, and
engine improvements would be
reflected in the stringency of the vehicle
standard for the vehicle in which the
engine would be installed. Nevertheless,
we request comment on the merits of
adopting a more stringent SI engine
standard in the 2024 to 2027 time frame,
including comment on technologies,
adoption rates, and effectiveness over
the engine cycle that could support
adoption of a more stringent standard.
Please see Section V.C of this preamble
for a description of the SI engine
technologies that have been considered
in developing the proposed vocational
vehicle standards. Please see Section
VI.C of this preamble for a description
of the SI engine technologies that have
been considered in developing the
proposed HD pickup truck and van
standards.
(c) Engine Improvements Projected for
Vehicles over the GEM Duty Cycles
Because we are proposing that tractor
and vocational vehicle manufacturers
represent their vehicles’ actual engines
in GEM for vehicle certification, the
agencies aligned our engine technology
effectiveness assessments for both the
separate engine standards and the
tractor and vocational vehicle standards
for each of the regulatory alternatives
considered. This was an important step
because we are proposing to recognize
the same engine technologies in both
the separate engine standards and the
vehicle standards, which each have
different test procedures for
demonstrating compliance. As
explained earlier in Section II. D. (1),
compliance with the tractor separate
engine standards is determined from a
composite of the Supplemental Engine
Test (SET) procedure’s 13 steady-state
operating points. Compliance with the
vocational vehicle separate engine
standards is determined over the
Federal Test Procedure’s (FTP) transient
engine duty cycle. In contrast,
compliance with the vehicle standards
is determined using GEM, which
calculates composite results over a
combination of 55 mph and 65 mph
steady-state vehicle cycles and the ARB
Transient vehicle cycle. Note that we
are also proposing a new workday idle
cycle for vocational vehicles. Each of
these duty cycles emphasizes different
engine operating points; therefore, they
can each recognize certain technologies
differently.
Our first step in aligning our engine
technology assessment at both the
engine and vehicle levels was to start
with an analysis of how we project each
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technology to impact performance at
each of the 13 individual test points of
the SET steady-state engine duty cycle.
For example, engine friction reduction
technology would be expected to have
the greatest impact at the highest engine
speeds, where frictional energy losses
are the greatest. As another example,
turbocharger technology is generally
optimized for best efficiency at steadystate cruise vehicle speed. For an engine
this is near its lower peak-torque speed
and at a moderately high load that still
offers sufficient torque reserve to climb
modest road grades without frequent
transmission gear shifting. The agencies
also considered the combination of
certain technologies causing synergies
and dis-synergies with respect to engine
efficiency at each of these test points.
See RIA Chapter 2 for further details.
Next we estimated unique brakespecific fuel consumption values for
each of the 13 SET test points for two
hypothetical MY2018 tractor engines
that would be compliant with the Phase
1 standards. These were a 15 liter
displacement 455 horsepower engine
and an 11 liter 350 horsepower engine.
We then added technologies to these
engines that we determined were
feasible for MY2021, MY2024, and MY
2027, and we determined unique
improvements at each of the 13 SET
points. We then calculated composite
SET values for these hypothetical
engines and determined the SET
improvements that we could use to
propose more stringent separate tractor
engine standards for MY2021, MY2024,
and MY 2027.
To align our engine technology
analysis for vehicles to the SET engine
analysis described above, we then fit a
surface equation through each engine’s
SET points versus engine speed and
load to approximate their analogous fuel
maps that would represent these same
engines in GEM. Because the 13 SET
test points do not fully cover an engine’s
wide range of possible operation, we
also determined improvements for an
additional 6 points of engine operation
to improve the creation of GEM fuel
maps for these engines. Then for each of
these 8 tractor engines (two each for
MY2018, MY2021, MY2024, and
MY2027) we ran GEM simulations to
represent low-, mid-, and high-roof
sleeper cabs and low-, mid-, and highroof day cabs. Class 8 tractors were
assumed for the 455 horsepower engine
and Class 7 tractors (day cabs only) were
assumed for the 350 horsepower engine.
Each GEM simulation calculated results
for the 55 mph, 65 mph, and ARB
Transient cycles, as well as the
composite GEM value associated with
each of the tractor types. After factoring
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in our Alternative 3 projected market
penetrations of the engine technologies,
we then compared the percent
improvements that the same sets of
engine technology caused over the
separate engines’ SET composites and
the various vehicles’ GEM composites.
Compared to their respective MY2018
baseline engines, the two engines of
different horsepower showed the same
percent improvements. All of the tractor
cab types showed nearly the same
relative improvements too. For example,
for the MY2021 Alternative 3 engine
technology package in a high roof
sleeper tractor, the SET engine
composites showed a 1.5 percent
improvement and the GEM composites
a 1.6 percent improvement. For the
MY2024 Alternative 3 engine
technology packages, the SET engine
composites showed a 3.7 percent
improvement and the GEM composites
a 3.7 percent improvement. For MY2027
Alternative 3 engine technology
packages, the SET engine composites
showed a 4.2 percent improvement and
the GEM composites a 4.2 percent
improvement. We therefore concluded
that tractor engine technologies will
improve engines and tractors
proportionally, even though the separate
engine and vehicle certification test
procedures have different duty cycles.
We then repeated this same process
for the FTP engine transient cycle and
the GEM vocational vehicle types. For
the vocational engine analysis we
investigated four engines: 15 liter
displacement engine at 455 horsepower
rating, 11 liter displacement engine at
345 horsepower rating, a 7 liter
displacement engine at a 200
horsepower rating and a 270
horsepower rating. These engines were
then used in GEM over the light-heavy,
medium-heavy, and heavy-heavy
vocational vehicle configurations.
Because the technologies were assumed
to impact each point of the FTP in the
same way, the results for all engines and
vehicles were 2.0 percent improvement
in MY2021, 3.5 percent improvement in
MY2024, and 4.0 percent improvement
in MY2027. Therefore, we arrived at the
same conclusion that vocational vehicle
engine technologies are recognized at
the same percent improvement over the
FTP as the GEM cycles. We request
comment on our approach to arrive at
this conclusion.
(d) Engine Technology Package Costs for
Tractor and Vocational Engines (and
Vehicles)
As described in Chapters 2 and 7 of
the draft RIA, the agencies estimated
costs for each of the engines
technologies discussed here. All costs
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are presented relative to engines
projected to comply with the model year
2017 standards—i.e., relative to our
baseline engines. Note that we are not
presenting any costs for gasoline
engines (SI engines) because we are not
proposing to change the standards.
Our engine cost estimates include a
separate analysis of the incremental part
costs, research and development
activities, and additional equipment.
Our general approach used elsewhere in
this action (for HD pickup trucks,
gasoline engines, Class 7 and 8 tractors,
and Class 2b-8 vocational vehicles)
estimates a direct manufacturing cost for
a part and marks it up based on a factor
to account for indirect costs. See also 75
FR 25376. We believe that approach is
appropriate when compliance with
proposed standards is achieved
generally by installing new parts and
systems purchased from a supplier. In
such a case, the supplier is conducting
the bulk of the research and
development on the new parts and
systems and including those costs in the
purchase price paid by the original
equipment manufacturer. The indirect
costs incurred by the original equipment
manufacturer need not include much
cost to cover research and development
since the bulk of that effort is already
done. For the MHD and HHD diesel
engine segment, however, the agencies
believe that OEMs will incur costs not
associated with the purchase of parts or
systems from suppliers or even the
production of the parts and systems, but
rather the development of the new
technology by the original equipment
manufacturer itself. Therefore, the
agencies have directly estimated
additional indirect costs to account for
these development costs. The agencies
used the same approach in the Phase 1
HD rule. EPA commonly uses this
approach in cases where significant
investments in research and
development can lead to an emission
control approach that requires no new
hardware. For example, combustion
optimization may significantly reduce
emissions and cost a manufacturer
millions of dollars to develop but would
lead to an engine that is no more
expensive to produce. Using a bill of
materials approach would suggest that
the cost of the emissions control was
zero reflecting no new hardware and
ignoring the millions of dollars spent to
develop the improved combustion
system. Details of the cost analysis are
included in the draft RIA Chapter 2. To
reiterate, we have used this different
approach because the MHD and HHD
diesel engines are expected to comply in
part via technology changes that are not
reflected in new hardware but rather
reflect knowledge gained through
laboratory and real world testing that
allows for improvements in control
system calibrations—changes that are
more difficult to reflect through direct
costs with indirect cost multipliers.
Note that these engines are also
expected to incur new hardware costs as
shown in Table II–8 through Table II–
11. EPA also developed the incremental
piece cost for the components to meet
each of the 2021 and 2024 standards.
The costs shown in Table II–12 include
a low complexity ICM of 1.15 and
assume the flat-portion of the learning
curve is applicable to each technology.
(i) Tractor Engine Package Costs
TABLE II–8—PROPOSED MY2021 TRACTOR DIESEL ENGINE COMPONENT COSTS INCLUSIVE OF INDIRECT COST MARKUPS
AND ADOPTION RATES (2012$)
Medium HD
Heavy HD
Aftertreatment system (improved effectiveness SCR, dosing, DPF) ......................................................................
Valve Actuation ........................................................................................................................................................
Cylinder Head (flow optimized, increased firing pressure, improved thermal management) .................................
Turbocharger (improved efficiency) .........................................................................................................................
Turbo Compounding ................................................................................................................................................
EGR Cooler (improved efficiency) ...........................................................................................................................
Water Pump (optimized, variable vane, variable speed) ........................................................................................
Oil Pump (optimized) ...............................................................................................................................................
Fuel Pump (higher working pressure, increased efficiency, improved pressure regulation) ..................................
Fuel Rail (higher working pressure) ........................................................................................................................
Fuel Injector (optimized, improved multiple event control, higher working pressure) ............................................
Piston (reduced friction skirt, ring and pin) .............................................................................................................
Valvetrain (reduced friction, roller tappet) ...............................................................................................................
Waste Heat Recovery ..............................................................................................................................................
‘‘Right sized’’ engine ................................................................................................................................................
$7
82
3
9
50
2
43
2
2
5
5
1
39
105
¥40
$7
82
3
9
50
2
43
2
2
5
5
1
39
105
¥40
Total ..................................................................................................................................................................
314
314
Note: ‘‘Right sized’’ diesel engine is a smaller, less costly engine than the engine it replaces.
TABLE II–9—PROPOSED MY2024 TRACTOR DIESEL ENGINE COMPONENT COSTS INCLUSIVE OF INDIRECT COST MARKUPS
AND ADOPTION RATES (2012$)
ebenthall on DSK3VPTVN1PROD with MISCELLANEOUS
Medium HD
Aftertreatment system (improved effectiveness SCR, dosing, DPF) ......................................................................
Valve Actuation ........................................................................................................................................................
Cylinder Head (flow optimized, increased firing pressure, improved thermal management) .................................
Turbocharger (improved efficiency) .........................................................................................................................
Turbo Compounding ................................................................................................................................................
EGR Cooler (improved efficiency) ...........................................................................................................................
Water Pump (optimized, variable vane, variable speed) ........................................................................................
Oil Pump (optimized) ...............................................................................................................................................
Fuel Pump (higher working pressure, increased efficiency, improved pressure regulation) ..................................
Fuel Rail (higher working pressure) ........................................................................................................................
Fuel Injector (optimized, improved multiple event control, higher working pressure) ............................................
Piston (reduced friction skirt, ring and pin) .............................................................................................................
Valvetrain (reduced friction, roller tappet) ...............................................................................................................
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$14
166
6
17
92
3
84
4
4
9
10
3
75
Heavy HD
$14
166
6
17
92
3
84
4
4
9
10
3
75
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Federal Register / Vol. 80, No. 133 / Monday, July 13, 2015 / Proposed Rules
TABLE II–9—PROPOSED MY2024 TRACTOR DIESEL ENGINE COMPONENT COSTS INCLUSIVE OF INDIRECT COST MARKUPS
AND ADOPTION RATES (2012$)—Continued
Medium HD
Heavy HD
Waste Heat Recovery ..............................................................................................................................................
‘‘Right sized’’ engine ................................................................................................................................................
502
¥85
502
¥85
Total ..................................................................................................................................................................
904
904
Note: ‘‘Right sized’’ diesel engine is a smaller, less costly engine than the engine it replaces.
TABLE II–10—PROPOSED MY2027 TRACTOR DIESEL ENGINE COMPONENT COSTS INCLUSIVE OF INDIRECT COST
MARKUPS AND ADOPTION RATES (2012$)
Medium HD
Heavy HD
Aftertreatment system (improved effectiveness SCR, dosing, DPF) ......................................................................
Valve Actuation ........................................................................................................................................................
Cylinder Head (flow optimized, increased firing pressure, improved thermal management) .................................
Turbocharger (improved efficiency) .........................................................................................................................
Turbo Compounding ................................................................................................................................................
EGR Cooler (improved efficiency) ...........................................................................................................................
Water Pump (optimized, variable vane, variable speed) ........................................................................................
Oil Pump (optimized) ...............................................................................................................................................
Fuel Pump (higher working pressure, increased efficiency, improved pressure regulation) ..................................
Fuel Rail (higher working pressure) ........................................................................................................................
Fuel Injector (optimized, improved multiple event control, higher working pressure) ............................................
Piston (reduced friction skirt, ring and pin) .............................................................................................................
Valvetrain (reduced friction, roller tappet) ...............................................................................................................
Waste Heat Recovery ..............................................................................................................................................
‘‘Right sized’’ engine ................................................................................................................................................
$14
169
6
17
87
3
84
4
4
9
10
3
75
1,340
¥127
$14
169
6
17
87
3
84
4
4
9
10
3
75
1,340
¥127
Total .........................................................................................................................................................................
1,698
1,698
Note: ‘‘Right sized’’ diesel engine is a smaller, less costly engine than the engine it replaces.
(ii) Vocational Diesel Engine Package
Costs
TABLE II–11—PROPOSED MY2021 VOCATIONAL DIESEL ENGINE COMPONENT COSTS INCLUSIVE OF INDIRECT COST
MARKUPS AND ADOPTION RATES (2012$)
Light HD
Medium HD
Heavy HD
$8
91
6
10
2
57
3
3
7
8
1
69
28
$8
91
3
10
2
57
3
3
6
6
1
52
28
$8
91
3
10
2
57
3
3
6
6
1
52
28
Total ......................................................................................................................................
ebenthall on DSK3VPTVN1PROD with MISCELLANEOUS
Aftertreatment system (improved effectiveness SCR, dosing, DPF) ..........................................
Valve Actuation ............................................................................................................................
Cylinder Head (flow optimized, increased firing pressure, improved thermal management) .....
Turbocharger (improved efficiency) .............................................................................................
EGR Cooler (improved efficiency) ...............................................................................................
Water Pump (optimized, variable vane, variable speed) ............................................................
Oil Pump (optimized) ...................................................................................................................
Fuel Pump (higher working pressure, increased efficiency, improved pressure regulation) ......
Fuel Rail (higher working pressure) ............................................................................................
Fuel Injector (optimized, improved multiple event control, higher working pressure) ................
Piston (reduced friction skirt, ring and pin) .................................................................................
Valvetrain (reduced friction, roller tappet) ...................................................................................
Model Based Controls .................................................................................................................
293
270
270
TABLE II–12—PROPOSED MY2024 VOCATIONAL DIESEL ENGINE COMPONENT COSTS INCLUSIVE OF INDIRECT COST
MARKUPS AND ADOPTION RATES (2012$)
Light HD
Aftertreatment system (improved effectiveness SCR, dosing, DPF) ..........................................
Valve Actuation ............................................................................................................................
Cylinder Head (flow optimized, increased firing pressure, improved thermal management) .....
Turbocharger (improved efficiency) .............................................................................................
EGR Cooler (improved efficiency) ...............................................................................................
Water Pump (optimized, variable vane, variable speed) ............................................................
Oil Pump (optimized) ...................................................................................................................
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$13
157
10
16
3
79
4
13JYP2
Medium HD
$13
157
6
16
3
79
4
Heavy HD
$13
157
6
16
3
79
4
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Federal Register / Vol. 80, No. 133 / Monday, July 13, 2015 / Proposed Rules
TABLE II–12—PROPOSED MY2024 VOCATIONAL DIESEL ENGINE COMPONENT COSTS INCLUSIVE OF INDIRECT COST
MARKUPS AND ADOPTION RATES (2012$)—Continued
Light HD
Medium HD
Heavy HD
Fuel Pump (higher working pressure, increased efficiency, improved pressure regulation) ......
Fuel Rail (higher working pressure) ............................................................................................
Fuel Injector (optimized, improved multiple event control, higher working pressure) ................
Piston (reduced friction skirt, ring and pin) .................................................................................
Valvetrain (reduced friction, roller tappet) ...................................................................................
Model Based Controls .................................................................................................................
4
10
13
2
95
31
4
9
10
2
71
31
4
9
10
2
71
31
Total ......................................................................................................................................
437
405
405
TABLE II–13—PROPOSED MY2027 VOCATIONAL DIESEL ENGINE COMPONENT COSTS INCLUSIVE OF INDIRECT COST
MARKUPS AND ADOPTION RATES (2012$)
Light HD
Medium HD
Heavy HD
Aftertreatment system (improved effectiveness SCR, dosing, DPF) ..........................................
Valve Actuation ............................................................................................................................
Cylinder Head (flow optimized, increased firing pressure, improved thermal management) .....
Turbocharger (improved efficiency) .............................................................................................
EGR Cooler (improved efficiency) ...............................................................................................
Water Pump (optimized, variable vane, variable speed) ............................................................
Oil Pump (optimized) ...................................................................................................................
Fuel Pump (higher working pressure, increased efficiency, improved pressure regulation) ......
Fuel Rail (higher working pressure) ............................................................................................
Fuel Injector (optimized, improved multiple event control, higher working pressure) ................
Piston (reduced friction skirt, ring and pin) .................................................................................
Valvetrain (reduced friction, roller tappet) ...................................................................................
Model Based Controls .................................................................................................................
$14
169
10
17
3
84
4
4
11
13
3
100
39
$14
169
6
17
3
84
4
4
9
10
3
75
39
$14
169
6
17
3
84
4
4
9
10
3
75
39
Total ......................................................................................................................................
471
437
437
(e) Feasibility of Phasing In the CO2 and
Fuel Consumption Standards Sooner
The agencies are requesting comment
on accelerated standards for diesel
engines that would achieve the same
reductions as the proposed standards,
but with less lead time. Table II–14 and
Table II–15 below show a technology
path that the agencies project could be
used to achieve the reductions that
would be required within the lead time
allowed by the alternative standards. As
discussed in Sections I and X, the
agencies are proposing to fully phase in
these standards through 2027. The
agencies believe that standards that
fully phase in through 2024 have the
potential to be the maximum feasible
and appropriate option. However, based
on the evidence currently before the
agencies, we have outstanding questions
(for which we are seeking comment)
regarding relative risks and benefits of
that option in the timeframe envisioned.
Commenters are encouraged to address
how technologies could develop if a
shorter lead time is selected. In
particular, we request comment on the
likelihood that WHR systems would be
available for tractor engines in this time
frame, and that WHR systems would
achieve the projected level of reduction
and the necessary reliability. We also
request comment on whether it would
be possible to apply the model based
controls described in Section II.D.(2)
(a)(i) to this many vocational engines in
this time frame.
TABLE II–14—PROJECTED TRACTOR ENGINE TECHNOLOGIES AND REDUCTION FOR ALTERNATIVE 4 STANDARDS
SET reduction
(%)
ebenthall on DSK3VPTVN1PROD with MISCELLANEOUS
%-Improvements beyond Phase 1, 2018 engine as baseline
Turbo compound ..........................................................................................................................
WHR (Rankine cycle) ..................................................................................................................
Parasitics/Friction (Cyl Kits, pumps, FIE), lubrication .................................................................
Aftertreatment ..............................................................................................................................
Exhaust Manifold Turbo Efficiency EGR Cooler VVT .................................................................
Combustion/FI/Control .................................................................................................................
Downsizing ...................................................................................................................................
Market penetration MY
2021 (%)
Market penetration MY
2024 (%)
1.82
3.58
1.41
0.61
1.14
1.11
0.29
5
4
60
60
60
60
20
10
15
100
100
100
100
30
Market Penetration Weighted Package ...................................................................................................................
2.1
4.2
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TABLE II–15—PROJECTED VOCATIONAL ENGINE TECHNOLOGIES AND REDUCTION FOR MORE STRINGENT ALTERNATIVE
STANDARDS
%-Improvements beyond Phase 1, 2018 engine as baseline
FTP reduction
(%)
Model based control ....................................................................................................................
Parasitics/Friction .........................................................................................................................
EGR/Air/VVT/Turbo .....................................................................................................................
Improved AT ................................................................................................................................
Combustion Optimization .............................................................................................................
Weighted reduction (%)-L/MHD/HHD ..........................................................................................
2
1.5
1
0.5
1
........................
The projected HDD engine package
costs for both tractors and vocational
engines in MYs 2021 and 2024 under
Alternative 4 are shown in Table II–16.
Note that, while the technology
application rates in MY2024 under
Alternative 4 are essentially identical to
those for MY2027 under the proposal,
the costs are about 5 to 11 percent
higher under Alternative 4 due to
learning effects and markup changes
that are estimated to have occurred by
MY2027 under Alternative 3. Note also
that the agencies did not include any
additional costs for accelerating
technology development or to address
Market
penetration
MY 2021 (%)
Market
penetration
MY 2024 (%)
30
70
70
70
70
2.5
40
100
100
100
100
4.0
potential in-use durability issues. We
request comment on whether such costs
would occur if we finalized this
alternative. We also request comment on
what steps could be taken to mitigate
such costs.
TABLE II–16—EXPECTED PACKAGE COSTS FOR HD DIESEL ENGINES UNDER ALTERNATIVE 4 (2012$)
Model year
MHDD tractor
HHDD tractor
$656
1,885
LHDD vocational
$656
1,885
2021 .....................................................................................
2024 .....................................................................................
$372
493
MHDD vocational
$345
457
a
HHDD vocational
$345
457
ebenthall on DSK3VPTVN1PROD with MISCELLANEOUS
Note:
a Costs presented here include application rates.
The agencies’ analysis shows that, in
the absence of additional costs for
accelerating technology development or
to address potential in-use durability
issues, the costs associated with
Alternative 4 would be very similar to
those we project for the proposed
standards. Alternative 4 would also
have similar payback times and costeffectiveness. In other words,
Alternative 4 would achieve some
additional reductions for model years
2021 through 2026, with roughly
proportional additional costs unless
there were additional costs for
accelerating development or for in-use
durability issues. (Note that reductions
and costs for MY 2027 and later would
be equivalent for Alternative 4 and the
proposed standards). In order to help
make this assessment, we request
comment on the following issues:
whether manufacturers could meet
these standards with three years less
lead time, what additional expenses
would be incurred to meet these
standards with less lead time, and how
reliable would the engines be if the
manufacturers had to bring them to
market three years earlier.
(3) Proposed EPA Engine Standards for
N2O
EPA is proposing to adopt the MY
2021 N2O engine standards that were
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originally proposed for Phase 1. The
proposed level for Phase 2 would be
0.05 g/hp-hr with a default deterioration
factor of 0.01 g/hp-hr, which we believe
is technologically feasible because a
number of engines meet this level today.
This level of stringency is consistent
with the agency’s Phase 1 approach to
set ‘‘cap’’ standards for N2O. EPA
finalized Phase 1 standards for N2O as
engine-based standards at 0.10 g/hp-hr
and a 0.02 g/hp-hr default deterioration
factor because the agency believes that
emissions of this GHG are
technologically related solely to the
engine, fuel, and emissions
aftertreatment systems, and the agency
is not aware of any influence of vehiclebased technologies on these emissions.
We continue to believe this approach is
appropriate, but we believe that more
stringent standards are appropriate to
ensure that N2O emissions do not
increase in the future. Note that NHTSA
did not adopt standards for N2O because
these emissions do not impact fuel
consumption in a significant way, and
is not proposing such standards for
Phase 2 for the same reason.
We are proposing this change at no
additional cost and no additional
benefit because manufacturers are
generally meeting the proposed
standard today. The purpose of this
standard is to prevent increases in N2O
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emissions absent this proposed increase
in stringency. We request comment on
whether or not we should be
considering additional costs for
compliance. Similarly, we request
comment on whether or not we should
assume N2O increases in our ‘‘No
Action’’ regulatory Alternatives 1a and
1b described in Section X.
Although N2O is emitted in very small
amounts, it can have a very significant
impact on the climate. The global
warming potential (GWP) of one
molecule of N2O is 298 times that of one
molecule CO2. Because N2O and CO2
coincidentally have the same molar
mass, this means that one gram of N2O
would have the same impact on the
climate as 298 grams of CO2. To further
put this into perspective, the difference
between the proposed N2O standard
(and deterioration factor) and the
current Phase 1 standard is 0.40 g/hphr of N2O emissions. This is equivalent
to 11.92 g/hp-hr CO2. Over the same
certification test cycle (i.e. EPA’s HD
FTP) the Phase 1 engine CO2 emissions
standard ranges from 460 to 576 g/hphr, depending on the service class of the
engine. Therefore, absent today’s
proposed action, engine N2O increases
equivalent to 2.1 to 2.6 percent of the
Phase 1 CO2 standard could occur.
We are proposing this lower cap
because we have determined that
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manufacturers generally are meeting
this level today but in the future could
increase N2O emissions up to the
current Phase 1 cap standard. Because
we do not believe any manufacturer
would need to do anything more than
recalibrate their SCR systems to comply,
the lead time being provided would be
sufficient. This section later describes
why manufacturers may increase N2O
emissions from SCR-equipped
compression-ignition engines in the
absence of a lower N2O cap standard.
We request comment on this. We also
note that, as described in Section XI,
EPA does not believe there is a similar
opportunity to lower the pickup and
van N2O standard because it was set at
a more stringent level in Phase 1.
(a) N2O Formation
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N2O formation in modern diesel
engines is a by-product of the SCR
process. It is dependent on the SCR
catalyst type, the NO2 to NOX ratio, the
level of NOX reduction required, and the
concentration of the reactants in the
system (NH3 to NOX ratio).
Two current engine/aftertreatment
designs are driving N2O emission
higher. The first is an increase in engine
out NOX, which puts a higher NOX
reduction burden on the SCR NOX
emission control system. The second is
an increase in NO2 formation from the
diesel oxidation catalyst (DOC) located
upstream of the passive catalyzed diesel
particulate filter (CDPF). This increase
in NO2 serves two functions: Improving
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passive CDPF regeneration and
optimization of faster SCR reaction.107
There are multiple mechanisms
through which N2O can form in an SCR
system:
1. Low temperature formation of N2O
over the DOC prior to the SCR catalyst.
2. Low temperature formation of
NH4NO3 with subsequent
decomposition as exhaust temperatures
increase, leading to conversion to N2O
over the SCR catalyst.
3. Formation of N2O from NO2 over
the SCR catalyst at NO2 to NO ratios
greater than 1:1. N2O formation
increases significantly at 300 to 350 °C.
4. Formation of N2O from NH3 via
partial oxidation over the ammonia slip
catalyst.
5. High-temperature N2O formation
over the SCR catalyst due to NH3
oxidation facilitated by high SCR
catalyst surface coverage of NH3.
Thus, as discussed below, control of
N2O formation requires precise
optimization of SCR controls including
thermal management and dosing rates,
as well as catalyst composition.
(b) N2O Emission Reduction
Through on-engine and reactor bench
experiments, this same work showed
that the key to reducing N2O emissions
lies in intelligent emission control
system design and operation, namely:
1. Selecting the appropriate DOC and/
or CDPF catalyst loadings to maintain
NO2 to NO ratios at or below 1:1.
107 Hallstrom, K., Voss, K., and Shah, S., ‘‘The
Formation of N2O on the SCR Catalyst in a Heavy
Duty US 2010 Emission Control System’’, SAE
Technical Paper 2013–01–2463.
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2. Avoiding high catalyst surface
coverage of NH3 though urea dosing
management when the system is in the
ideal N2O formation window.
3. Utilizing thermal management to
push the SCR inlet temperature outside
of the N2O low-temperature formation
window.
EPA believes that reducing the
standard from 0.1 g/hp-hr to 0.05 g/hphr is feasible because most engines have
emission rates that would meet this
standard today and the others could
meet it with minor calibration changes
at no additional cost. Numerous studies
have shown that diesel engine
technologies can be fine-tuned to meet
the current NOX and proposed N2O
standards while still providing passive
CDPF regeneration even with earlier
generations of SCR systems. Currently
model year 2014 systems have already
moved on to newer generation systems
in which the combined CDPF and SCR
functions have been further optimized.
The result of this is 18 of 24 engines in
the EPA 2014 certification database
emitting N2O at less than half of the
2014 standard, and thus below the
proposed standard.108 Given the
discussions in the literature, there are
still additional calibration steps that can
be taken to further reduce N2O
emissions for the higher emitters to
afford an adequate compliance margin
and room to account for deterioration,
without having an adverse effect on
criteria pollutant emissions.
108 https://www.epa.gov/otaq/crttst.htm.
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It is important to note, however, that
there is a trade off when trying to
optimize SCR systems to achieve peak
NOX reduction efficiencies. When
transitioning from a <93 percent
efficient MY 2011 system to a 98
percent efficient system of the future,
lowering the N2O cap to 0.05 g/hp-hr
would put constraints on the techniques
that can be applied to improve
efficiency. If system designers push the
NH3 to NOX ratio higher to try and
achieve the maximum possible NOX
reduction, it could increase N2O
emissions. If EPA were to adopt a very
low NOX standard (e.g., 0.02 g/hp-hr)
over existing test cycles, some
reductions would be needed throughout
the hot portion of the cycle (although
most of the reductions would have to
come from the cold start portion of the
test cycle). Thermal management would
need to play a key role, and reducing
catalyst light-off time would move the
SCR catalyst through the ammonium
nitrate formation and decomposition
thermal range quicker, thus lowering
N2O emissions. An increase in the NH3
to NOX ratio could also further reduce
NOX emissions; however this would
also adversely affect NH3 slip and N2O
formation. The inability of NH3 slip
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catalysts to handle the increased NH3
load and the EPA NH3 slip limit of 10
ppm would guard against this NH3 to
NOX ratio increase, and thus subsequent
N2O increase.
In summary, EPA believes that engine
manufacturers would be able to respond
with highly efficient NOX reducing
systems that can meet the proposed
lower N2O cap of 0.05 g/hp-hr with no
additional cost or lead time. When
optimizing SCR systems for better NOX
reduction efficiency, that optimization
includes lowering the emissions of
undesirable side reactions, including
those that form N2O.
(4) EPA Engine Standards for Methane
EPA is proposing to apply the Phase
1 methane engine standards to the Phase
2 program. EPA adopted the cap
standards for CH4 (along with N2O
standards) as engine-based standards
because the agency believes that
emissions of this GHG are
technologically related solely to the
engine, fuel, and emissions
aftertreatment systems, and the agency
is not aware of any influence of vehiclebased technologies on these emissions.
Note that NHTSA did not adopt
standards for CH4 (or N2O) because
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these emissions do not impact fuel
consumption in a significant way, and
is not proposing CH4 standards for
Phase 2 either.
EPA continues to believe that
manufacturers of most engine
technologies will be able to comply with
the Phase 1 CH4 standard with no
technological improvements. We note
that we are not aware of any new
technologies that would allow us to
adopt more stringent standards at this
time. We request comment on this.
(5) Compliance Provisions and
Flexibilities for Engine Standards
The agencies are proposing to
continue most of the Phase 1
compliance provisions and flexibilities
for the Phase 2 engine standards.
(a) Averaging, Banking, and Trading
The agencies’ general approach to
averaging is discussed in Section I. We
are not proposing to offer any special
credits to engine manufacturers. Except
for early credits and advanced
technology credits, the agencies propose
to retain all Phase 1 credit flexibilities
and limitations to continue for use in
the Phase 2 program.
As discussed below, EPA is proposing
to change the useful life for LHD
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engines for GHG emissions from the
current 10 years/110,000 miles to 15
years/150,000 miles to be consistent
with the useful life of criteria pollutants
recently updated in EPA’s Tier 3 rule.
In order to ensure that banked credits
would maintain their value in the
transition from Phase 1 to Phase 2,
NHTSA and EPA propose an adjustment
factor of 1.36 (i.e., 150,000 mile ÷
110,000 miles) for credits that are
carried forward from Phase 1 to the MY
2021 and later Phase 2 standards.
Without this adjustment factor the
proposed change in useful life would
effectively result in a discount of
banked credits that are carried forward
from Phase 1 to Phase 2, which is not
the intent of the change in the useful
life. See Sections V and VI for
additional discussion of similar
adjustments of vehicle-based credits.
(b) Request for Comment on Changing
Global Warming Potential Values in the
Credit Program for CH4 and N2O
The Phase 1 rule included a
compliance alternative allowing heavyduty manufacturers and conversion
companies to comply with the
respective methane or nitrous oxide
standards by means of over-complying
with CO2 standards (40 CFR
1036.705(d)). The heavy-duty rules
allow averaging only between vehicles
or engines of the same designated type
(referred to as an ‘‘averaging set’’ in the
rules). Specifically, the phase 1 heavyduty rulemaking added a CO2 credits
program which allowed heavy-duty
manufacturers to average and bank
pollutant emissions to comply with the
methane and nitrous oxide requirements
after adjusting the CO2 emission credits
based on the relative GHG equivalents.
To establish the GHG equivalents used
by the CO2 credits program, the Phase
1 rule incorporated the IPCC Fourth
Assessment Report global warming
potential (GWP) values of 25 for CH4
and 298 for N2O, which are assessed
over a 100 year lifetime.
Since the Phase 1 rule was finalized,
a new IPCC report has been released
(the Fifth Assessment Report), with new
GWP estimates. This is prompting us to
look again at the relative CO2
equivalency of methane and nitrous
oxide and to seek comment on whether
the methane and nitrous oxide GWPs
used to establish the GHG equivalency
value for the CO2 Credit program should
be updated to those established by IPCC
in its Fifth Assessment Report. The Fifth
Assessment Report provides four 100
year GWPs for methane ranging from 28
to 36 and two 100 year GWPs for nitrous
oxide, either 265 or 298. Therefore, we
not only request comment on whether to
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update the GWP for methane and
nitrous oxide to that of the Fifth
Assessment Report, but also on which
value to use from this report.
(c) In-Use Compliance and Useful Life
Consistent with Section 202(a)(1) and
202 (d) of the CAA, for Phase 1, EPA
established in-use standards for heavyduty engines. Based on our assessment
of testing variability and other relevant
factors, we established in-use standards
by adding a 3 percent adjustment factor
to the full useful life emissions and fuel
consumption results measured in the
EPA certification process to address
measurement variability inherent in
comparing results among different
laboratories and different engines. See
40 CFR part 1036. The agencies are not
proposing to change this for Phase 2, but
request comment on whether this
allowance is still necessary.
We note that in Phase 1, we applied
these standards to only certain engine
configurations in each engine family
(often called the parent rating). We
welcome comment on whether the
agencies should set Phase 2 CO2 and
fuel consumption standards for the
other ratings (often called the child
ratings) within an engine family. We are
not proposing specific engine standards
for child ratings in Phase 2 because we
are proposing to include the actual
engine’s fuel map in the vehicle
certification. We believe this approach
appropriately addresses our concern
that manufacturers control CO2
emissions and fuel consumption from
all in-use engine configurations within
an engine family.
In Phase 1, EPA set the useful life for
engines and vehicles with respect to
GHG emissions equal to the respective
useful life periods for criteria pollutants.
In April 2014, as part of the Tier 3 lightduty vehicle final rule, EPA extended
the regulatory useful life period for
criteria pollutants to 150,000 miles or 15
years, whichever comes first, for Class
2b and 3 pickup trucks and vans and
some light-duty trucks (79 FR 23414,
April 28, 2014). As described in Section
V, EPA is proposing that the Phase 2
GHG standards for vocational vehicles
at or below 19,500 lbs GVWR apply over
the same useful life of 150,000 miles or
15 years. To be consistent with that
proposed change, we are also proposing
that the Phase 2 GHG standards for
engines used in vocational vehicles at or
below 19,500 lbs GVWR apply over the
same useful life of 150,000 miles or 15
years. NHTSA proposes to use the same
useful life values as EPA for all
vocational vehicles.
We are proposing to continue
regulatory allowance in 40 CFR
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1036.150(g) that allows engine
manufacturers to use assigned
deterioration factors (DFs) for most
engines without performing their own
durability emission tests or engineering
analysis. However, the engines would
still be required to meet the standards
in actual use without regard to whether
the manufacturer used the assigned DFs.
This allowance is being continued as an
interim provision and may be
discontinued for later phases of
standards as more information becomes
known. Manufacturers are allowed to
use an assigned additive DF of 0.0 g/
bhp-hr for CO2 emissions from any
conventional engine (i.e., an engine not
including advance or off-cycle
technologies). Upon request, we could
allow the assigned DF for CO2 emissions
from engines including advance or offcycle technologies, but only if we
determine that it would be consistent
with good engineering judgment. We
believe that we have enough
information about in-use CO2 emissions
from conventional engines to conclude
that they will not increase as the
engines age. However, we lack such
information about the more advanced
technologies.
We are also requesting comment on
how to apply DFs to low level
measurements where test-to-test
variability may be larger than the actual
deterioration rates being measured, such
as might occur with N2O. Should we
allow statistical analysis to be used to
identifying trends rather than basing the
DF on the highest measured value? How
would we allow this where emission
deterioration is not linear, such as sawtooth deterioration related to
maintenance or other offsetting
emission effects causing emissions to
peak before the end of the useful life?
Finally, EPA requests comment on
whether a similar allowance would be
appropriate for criteria pollutants as
well.
(d) Alternate CO2 Standards
In the Phase 1 rulemaking, the
agencies proposed provisions to allow
certification to alternate CO2 engine
standards in model years 2014 through
2016. This flexibility was intended to
address the special case of needed lead
time to implement new standards for a
previously unregulated pollutant. Since
that special case does not apply for
Phase 2, we are not proposing a similar
flexibility in this rulemaking. We also
request comment on whether this
allowance should be eliminated for
Phase 1 engines.
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(e) Proposed Approach to Standards and
Compliance Provisions for Natural Gas
Engines
EPA is also proposing certain
clarifying changes to its rules regarding
classification of natural gas engines.
This proposal relates to standards for all
emissions, both greenhouse gases and
criteria pollutants. These clarifying
changes are intended to reflect the
status quo, and therefore should not
have any associated costs.
EPA emission standards have always
applied differently for gasoline-fueled
and diesel-fueled engines. The
regulations in 40 CFR part 86
implement these distinctions by
dividing engines into Otto-cycle and
Diesel-cycle technologies. This
approach led EPA to categorize natural
gas engines according to their design
history. A diesel engine converted to
run on natural gas was classified as a
diesel-cycle engine; a gasoline engine
converted to run on natural gas was
classified as an Otto-cycle engine.
The Phase 1 rule described our plan
to transition to a different approach,
consistent with our nonroad programs,
in which we divide engines into
compression-ignition and spark-ignition
technologies based only on the
operating characteristics of the
engines.109 However, the Phase 1 rule
included a provision allowing us to
continue with the historic approach on
an interim basis.
Under the existing EPA regulatory
definitions of ‘‘compression-ignition’’
and ‘‘spark-ignition’’, a natural gas
engine would generally be considered
compression-ignition if it operates with
lean air-fuel mixtures and uses a pilot
injection of diesel fuel to initiate
combustion, and would generally be
considered spark-ignition if it operates
with stoichiometric air-fuel mixtures
and uses a spark plug to initiate
combustion.
EPA’s basic premise here is that
natural gas engines performing similar
in-use functions should be subject to
similar regulatory requirements. The
compression-ignition emission
standards and testing requirements
reflect the operating characteristics for
the full range of heavy-duty vehicles,
including substantial operation in longhaul service characteristic of tractors.
The spark-ignition emission standards
and testing requirements do not include
some of those provisions related to use
in long-haul service or other
applications where diesel engines
predominate, such as steady-state
testing, Not-to-Exceed standards, and
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extended useful life. We believe it
would be inappropriate to apply the
spark-ignition standards and
requirements to natural gas engines that
would be used in applications mostly
served by diesel engines today. We are
therefore proposing to replace the
interim provision described above with
a differentiated approach to certification
of natural gas engines across all of the
EPA standards—for both GHGs and
criteria pollutants. Under the proposed
clarifying amendment, we would
require manufacturers to divide all their
natural gas engines into primary
intended service classes, as we already
require for compression-ignition
engines, whether or not the engine has
features that otherwise could (in theory)
result in classification as SI under the
current rules. Any natural gas engine
qualifying as a medium heavy-duty
engine (19,500 to 33,000 lbs GVWR) or
a heavy heavy-duty engine (over 33,000
lbs GVWR) would be subject to all the
emission standards and other
requirements that apply to compressionignition engines.
Table II–17 describes the provisions
that would apply differently for
compression-ignition and spark-ignition
engines:
TABLE II–17—REGULATORY PROVISIONS THAT ARE DIFFERENT FOR COMPRESSION-IGNITION AND SPARK-IGNITION
ENGINES
Provision
Compression-ignition
Spark-ignition
Transient duty cycle ........................
40 CFR part 86, Appendix I, paragraph (f)(2) cycle; divide by 1.12 to
de-normalize.
yes .........................................................................................................
yes .........................................................................................................
yes .........................................................................................................
yes .........................................................................................................
NOX, PM ................................................................................................
6.5 ..........................................................................................................
Separate averaging sets for light, medium, and heavy HDDE .............
40 CFR part 86, Appendix I, paragraph (f)(1) cycle.
no.
no.
no.
no.
NOX, NMHC.
6.3.
One averaging set for all SI engines.
110,000 miles
Ramped-modal test (SET) ..............
NTE standards ................................
Smoke standard ..............................
Manufacturer-run in-use testing ......
ABT—pollutants ..............................
ABT— transient conversion factor ..
ABT—averaging set ........................
Useful life ........................................
Warranty ..........................................
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Detailed AECD description .............
Test engine selection ......................
110,000 miles for light HDDE ................................................................
185,000 miles for medium HDDE.
435,000 miles for heavy HDDE.
50,000 miles for light HDDE ..................................................................
100,000 miles for medium HDDE.
100,000 miles for heavy HDDE.
yes .........................................................................................................
highest injected fuel volume ..................................................................
The onboard diagnostic requirements
already differentiate requirements by
fuel type, so there is no need for those
provisions to change based on the
considerations of this section.
We are not aware of any currently
certified engines that would change
109 See
50,000 miles.
no.
most likely to exceed emission
standards.
notably the requirement of four years
lead time. We are therefore proposing to
continue to apply the existing interim
provision through model year 2020.110
110 Section 202(a)(2), applicable to emissions of
greenhouse gases, does not mandate a specific
40 CFR 1036.108.
from compression-ignition to sparkignition under the proposed clarified
approach. Nonetheless, because these
proposed standards implicate rules for
criteria pollutants (as well as GHGs), the
provisions of CAA section 202(a)(3)(C)
apply (for the criteria pollutants),
period of lead time, but EPA sees no reason for a
different compliance date here for GHGs and
Continued
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Starting in model year 2021, all the
provisions would apply as described
above. Manufacturers would not be
permitted to certify any engine families
using carryover emission data if a
particular engine model switched from
compression-ignition to spark-ignition,
or vice versa. However, as noted above,
in practice these vehicles are already
being certified as CI engines, so we view
these changes as clarifications ratifying
the current status quo.
We are also proposing that these
provisions would apply equally to
engines fueled by any fuel other than
gasoline or ethanol, should such engines
be produced in the future. Given the
current and historic market for vehicles
above 19,500 lbs GVWR, EPA believes
any alternative-fueled vehicles in this
weight range would be competing
primarily with diesel vehicles and
should be subject to the same
requirements as them. We request
comment on all aspects of classifying
natural-gas and other engines for
purposes of applying emission
standards. See Sections XI and XII for
additional discussion of natural gas
fueled engines.
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(f) Crankcase Emissions From Natural
Gas Engines
EPA is proposing one fuel-specific
provision for natural gas engines,
likewise applicable to all pollutant
emissions, both GHGs and criteria
pollutant emissions. Note that we are
also proposing other vehicle-level
emissions controls for the natural gas
storage tanks and refueling connections.
These are presented in Section XIII.
EPA is proposing to require that all
natural gas-fueled engines have closed
crankcases, rather than continuing the
provision that allows venting to the
atmosphere all crankcase emissions
from all compression-ignition engines.
This has been allowed as long as these
vented crankcase emissions are
measured and accounted for as part of
an engine’s tailpipe emissions. This
allowance has historically been in place
to address the technical limitations
related to recirculating diesel-fueled
engines’ crankcase emissions, which
criteria pollutants. This is also true with respect to
the closed crankcase emission discussed in the
following subsection.
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have high PM emissions, back into the
engine’s air intake. High PM emissions
vented into the intake of an engine can
foul turbocharger compressors and
aftercooler heat exchangers. In contrast,
historically EPA has mandated closed
crankcase technology on all gasoline
fueled engines and all natural gas sparkignition engines.111 The inherently low
PM emissions from these engines posed
no technical barrier to a closed
crankcase mandate. Because natural gasfueled compression ignition engines
also have inherently low PM emissions,
there is no technological limitation that
would prevent manufacturers from
closing the crankcase and recirculating
all crankcase gases into a natural gasfueled compression ignition engine’s air
intake. We are requesting comment on
the costs and effectiveness of
technologies that we have identified to
comply with these provisions. In
addition, EPA is proposing that this
revised standard not take effect until the
2021 model year, consistent with the
requirement of section 202(a)(3)(C) to
provide four years lead time.
III. Class 7 and 8 Combination Tractors
Class 7 and 8 combination tractorstrailers contribute the largest portion of
the total GHG emissions and fuel
consumption of the heavy-duty sector,
approximately two-thirds, due to their
large payloads, their high annual miles
traveled, and their major role in national
freight transport.112 These vehicles
consist of a cab and engine (tractor or
combination tractor) and a trailer.113 In
general, reducing GHG emissions and
fuel consumption for these vehicles
would involve improvements to all
aspects of the vehicle.
As we found during the development
in Phase 1 and as continues to be true
in the industry today, the heavy-duty
combination tractor-trailer industry
40 CFR 86.008–10(c).
on-highway Class 7 and 8 combination
tractor-trailers constitute the vast majority of this
regulatory category. A small fraction of combination
tractors are used in off-road applications and are
regulated differently, as described in Section III.C.
113 ‘‘Tractor’’ is defined in 49 CFR 571.3 to mean
‘‘a truck designed primarily for drawing other motor
vehicles and not so constructed as to carry a load
other than a part of the weight of the vehicle and
the load so drawn.’’
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111 See
112 The
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consists of separate tractor
manufacturers and trailer
manufacturers. We are not aware of any
manufacturer that typically assembles
both the finished truck and the trailer
and introduces the combination into
commerce for sale to a buyer. There are
also large differences in the kinds of
manufacturers involved with producing
tractors and trailers. For HD highway
tractors and their engines, a relatively
limited number of manufacturers
produce the vast majority of these
products. The trailer manufacturing
industry is quite different, and includes
a large number of companies, many of
which are relatively small in size and
production volume. Setting standards
for the products involved—tractors and
trailers—requires recognition of the
large differences between these
manufacturing industries, which can
then warrant consideration of different
regulatory approaches. Thus, although
tractor-trailers operate essentially as a
unit from both a commercial standpoint
and for purposes of fuel efficiency and
CO2 emissions, the agencies have
developed separate proposed standards
for each.
Based on these industry
characteristics, EPA and NHTSA believe
that the most appropriate regulatory
approach for combination tractors and
trailers is to establish standards for
tractors separately from trailers. As
discussed below in Section IV, the
agencies are also proposing standards
for certain types of trailers.
A. Summary of the Phase 1 Tractor
Program
The design of each tractor’s cab and
drivetrain determines the amount of
power that the engine must produce in
moving the truck and its payload down
the road. As illustrated in Figure III–1,
the loads that require additional power
from the engine include air resistance
(aerodynamics), tire rolling resistance,
and parasitic losses (including accessory
loads and friction in the drivetrain). The
importance of the engine design is that
it determines the basic GHG emissions
and fuel consumption performance for
the variety of demands placed on the
vehicle, regardless of the characteristics
of the cab in which it is installed.
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Accordingly, for Class 7 and 8
combination tractors, the agencies
adopted two sets of Phase 1 tractor
standards for fuel consumption and CO2
emissions. The CO2 emission and fuel
consumption reductions related to
engine technologies are recognized in
the engine standards. For vehiclerelated emissions and fuel consumption,
tractor manufacturers are required to
meet vehicle-based standards.
Compliance with the vehicle standard
must be determined using the GEM
vehicle simulation tool.
The Phase 1 tractor standards were
based on several key attributes related to
GHG emissions and fuel consumption
that reasonably represent the many
differences in utility and performance
among these vehicles. Attribute-based
standards in general recognize the
variety of functions performed by
vehicles and engines, which in turn can
affect the kind of technology that is
available to control emissions and
reduce fuel consumption, or its
effectiveness. Attributes that
characterize differences in the design of
vehicles, as well as differences in how
the vehicles will be employed in-use,
can be key factors in evaluating
technological improvements for
reducing CO2 emissions and fuel
consumption. Developing an
appropriate attribute-based standard can
also avoid interfering with the ability of
the market to offer a variety of products
to meet the customer’s demand. The
Phase 1 tractor standards differ
depending on GVWR (i.e., whether the
truck is Class 7 or Class 8), the height
114 Adapted
from Figure 4.1. Class 8 Truck Energy
Audit, Technology Roadmap for the 21st Century
Truck Program: A Government-Industry Research
Partnership, 21CT–001, December 2000.
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of the roof of the cab, and whether it is
a ‘‘day cab’’ or a ‘‘sleeper cab.’’ These
later two attributes are important
because the height of the roof, designed
to correspond to the height of the trailer,
significantly affects air resistance, and a
sleeper cab generally corresponds to the
opportunity for extended duration idle
emission and fuel consumption
improvements. Based on these
attributes, the agencies created nine
subcategories within the Class 7 and 8
combination tractor category. The Phase
1 rules set standards for each of them.
Phase 1 standards began with the 2014
model year and were followed with
more stringent standards following in
model year 2017.115 The standards
represent an overall fuel consumption
and CO2 emissions reduction up to 23
percent from the tractors and the
engines installed in them when
compared to a baseline 2010 model year
tractor and engine without idle
shutdown technology. Although the
EPA and NHTSA standards are
expressed differently (grams of CO2 per
ton-mile and gallons per 1,000 ton-mile
respectively), the standards are
equivalent.
In Phase 1, the agencies allowed
manufacturers to certify certain types of
combination tractors as vocational
vehicles. These are tractors that do not
typically operate at highway speeds, or
would otherwise not benefit from
efficiency improvements designed for
line-haul tractors (although standards
would still apply to the engines
installed in these vehicles). The
115 Manufacturers may voluntarily opt-in to the
NHTSA fuel consumption standards in model years
2014 or 2015. Once a manufacturer opts into the
NHTSA program it must stay in the program for all
optional MYs.
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agencies created a subcategory of
‘‘vocational tractors,’’ or referred to as
‘‘special purpose tractors’’ in 40 CFR
part 1037, because real world operation
of these tractors is better represented by
our Phase 1 vocational vehicle duty
cycle than the tractor duty cycles.
Vocational tractors are subject to the
standards for vocational vehicles rather
than the combination tractor standards.
In addition, specific vocational tractors
and heavy-duty vocational vehicles
primarily designed to perform work offroad or having tires installed with a
maximum speed rating at or below 55
mph are exempted from the Phase 1
standards.
In Phase 1, the agencies also
established separate performance
standards for the engines manufactured
for use in these tractors. EPA’s enginebased CO2 standards and NHTSA’s
engine-based fuel consumption
standards are being implemented using
EPA’s existing test procedures and
regulatory structure for criteria pollutant
emissions from medium- and heavyduty engines. These engine standards
vary depending on engine size linked to
intended vehicle service class (which
are the same service classes used for
many years for EPA’s criteria pollutant
standards).
Manufacturers demonstrate
compliance with the Phase 1 tractor
standards using the GEM simulation
tool. As explained in Section II above,
GEM is a customized vehicle simulation
model which is the preferred approach
to demonstrating compliance testing for
combination tractors rather than chassis
dynamometer testing used in light-duty
vehicle compliance. As discussed in the
development of HD Phase 1 and
recommended by the NAS 2010 study,
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a simulation tool is the preferred
approach for HD tractor compliance
because of the extremely large number
of vehicle configurations.116 The GEM
compliance tool was developed by EPA
and is an accurate and cost-effective
alternative to measuring emissions and
fuel consumption while operating the
vehicle on a chassis dynamometer.
Instead of using a chassis dynamometer
as an indirect way to evaluate real world
operation and performance, various
characteristics of the vehicle are
measured and these measurements are
used as inputs to the model. For HD
Phase 1, these characteristics relate to
key technologies appropriate for this
category of truck including aerodynamic
features, weight reductions, tire rolling
resistance, the presence of idle-reducing
technology, and vehicle speed limiters.
The model also assumes the use of a
representative typical engine in
compliance with the separate,
applicable Phase 1 engine standard.
Using these inputs, the model is used to
quantify the overall performance of the
vehicle in terms of CO2 emissions and
fuel consumption. CO2 emission
reduction and fuel consumption
technologies not measured by the model
must be evaluated separately, and the
HD Phase 1 rules establish mechanisms
allowing credit for such ‘‘off-cycle’’
technologies.
In addition to the final Phase 1
tractor-based standards for CO2, EPA
adopted a separate standard to reduce
leakage of HFC refrigerant from cabin air
conditioning (A/C) systems from
combination tractors, to apply to the
tractor manufacturer. This HFC leakage
standard is independent of the CO2
tractor standard. Manufacturers can
choose technologies from a menu of
leak-reducing technologies sufficient to
comply with the standard, as opposed to
using a test to measure performance.
The Phase 1 program also provided
several flexibilities to advance the goals
of the overall program while providing
alternative pathways to achieve
compliance. The primary flexibility is
the averaging, banking, and trading
program which allows emissions and
fuel consumption credits to be averaged
within an averaging set, banked for up
to five years, or traded among
manufacturers. Manufacturers with
credit deficits were allowed to carryforward credit deficits for up to three
116 National Academy of Science. ‘‘Technologies
and Approaches to Reducing the Fuel Consumption
of Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicles.’’ 2010.
Recommendation 8–4 stated ‘‘Simulation modeling
should be used with component test data and
additional tested inputs from powertrain tests,
which could lower the cost and administrative
burden yet achieve the needed accuracy of results.’’
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model years, similar to the LD GHG and
CAFE carry-back credits. Phase 1 also
included several interim provisions,
such as incentives for advanced
technologies and provisions to obtain
credits for innovative technologies
(called off-cycle in the Phase 2 program)
not accounted for by the HD Phase 1
version of GEM or for certifying early.
B. Overview of the Proposed Phase 2
Tractor Program
The proposed HD Phase 2 program is
similar in many respects to the Phase 1
approach. The agencies are proposing to
maintain the Phase 1 attribute-based
regulatory structure in terms of dividing
the tractor category into the same nine
subcategories based on the tractor’s
GVWR, cab configuration, and roof
height. This structure is working well in
the implementation of Phase 1. The one
area where the agencies are proposing to
change the regulatory structure is
related to heavy-haul tractors. As noted
above, the Phase 1 regulations include
a set of provisions that allow vocational
tractors to be treated as vocational
vehicles. However, because the agencies
propose to include the powertrain as
part of the technology basis for the
tractor and vocational vehicle standards
in Phase 2, we are proposing to classify
a certain set of these vocational tractors
as heavy-haul tractors and subject them
to a separate tractor standard that
reflects their unique powertrain
requirements and limitations in
application of technologies to reduce
fuel consumption and CO2 emissions.117
The agencies propose to also retain
much of the certification and
compliance structure developed in
Phase 1 but to simplify end of the year
reporting. The agencies propose that the
Phase 2 tractor CO2 emissions and fuel
consumption standards, as in Phase 1,
be aligned.118 The agencies also propose
to continue to have separate engine and
vehicle standards to drive technology
improvements in both areas. The
reasoning behind the proposal to
maintain separate standards is
discussed above in Section II.B.2. As in
Phase 1, the agencies propose to certify
tractors using the GEM simulation tool
and to require manufacturers to evaluate
the performance of subsystems through
testing (the results of this testing to be
used as inputs to the GEM simulation
tool). Other aspects of the proposed HD
Phase 2 certification and compliance
program also mirror the Phase 1
117 See 76 FR 57138 for Phase 1 discussion. See
40 CFR 1037.801 for proposed Phase 2 heavy-haul
tractor regulatory definition.
118 Fuel consumption is calculated from CO
2
using the conversion factor of 10,180 grams of CO2
per gallon for diesel fuel.
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program, such as maintaining a single
reporting structure to satisfy both
agencies, requiring limited data at the
beginning of the model year for
certification, and determining
compliance based on end of year
reports. In the Phase 1 program,
manufacturers participating in the ABT
program provided 90 day and 270 day
reports after the end of the model year.
The agencies required two reports for
the initial program to help
manufacturers become familiar with the
reporting process. For the Phase 2
program, the agencies propose that
manufacturers would only be required
to submit one end of the year report,
which would simplify reporting.
Even though many aspects of the
proposed HD Phase 2 program are
similar to Phase 1, there are some key
differences. While Phase 1 focused on
reducing CO2 emissions and fuel
consumption in tractors through the
application of existing (‘‘off-the-shelf’’)
technologies, the proposed HD Phase 2
standards seek additional reductions
through increased use of existing
technologies and the development and
deployment of more advanced
technologies. To evaluate the
effectiveness of a more comprehensive
set of technologies, the agencies propose
several additional inputs to GEM. The
proposed set of inputs includes the
Phase 1 inputs plus parameters to assess
the performance of the engine,
transmission, and driveline. Specific
inputs for, among others, predictive
cruise control, automatic tire inflation
systems, and 6x2 axles would now be
required. Manufacturers would conduct
component testing to obtain the values
for these technologies (should they
choose to use them), which testing
values would then be input into the
GEM simulation tool. See Section III.D.2
below. To effectively assess
performance of the technologies, the
agencies also propose to change some
aspects of the drive cycle used in
certification through the addition of
road grade. To reflect the existing trailer
market, the agencies are proposing to
refine the aerodynamic test procedure
for high roof cabs by adding some
aerodynamic improving devices to the
reference trailer (used for determining
the relative aerodynamic performance of
the tractor). The agencies also propose
to change the aerodynamic certification
test procedure to capture aerodynamic
improvement of trailers and the impact
of wind on tractor aerodynamic
performance. The agencies are also
proposing to change some of the interim
provisions developed in Phase 1 to
reflect the maturity of the program and
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reduced need and justification for some
of the Phase 1 flexibilities. Further
discussions on all of these matters are
covered in the following sections.
C. Proposed Phase 2 Tractor Standards
EPA is proposing CO2 standards and
NHTSA is proposing fuel consumption
standards for new Class 7 and 8
combination tractors. In addition, EPA
is proposing to maintain the HFC
standards for the air conditioning
systems that were adopted in Phase 1.
EPA is also seeking comment on new
standards to further control emissions of
particulate matter (PM) from auxiliary
power units (APU) installed in tractors
that would prevent an unintended
consequence of increasing PM
emissions from tractors during long
duration idling.
This section describes in detail the
proposed standards. In addition to
describing the proposed alternative
(‘‘Alternative 3’’), in Section III.D.2.f we
also detail another alternative
(‘‘Alternative 4’’). Alternative 4 provides
less lead time than the proposed set of
standards but may provide more net
benefits in the form of greater emission
and fuel consumption reductions (with
somewhat higher costs) in the early
years of the program. The agencies
believe Alternative 4 has the potential to
be maximum feasible and appropriate as
discussed later in this section.
The agencies welcome comment on
all aspects of the proposed standards
and the alternative standards described
in Section III.D.2.f. Commenters are
encouraged to address all aspects of
feasibility analysis, including costs, the
likelihood of developing the technology
to achieve sufficient relaibility within
the proposed and alternative lead-times,
and the extent to which the market
could utilize the technology. It would be
helpful if comments addressed these
issues separately for each type of
technology.
(1) Proposed Fuel Consumption and
CO2 Standards
The proposed fuel consumption and
CO2 standards for the tractor cab are
shown below in Table III–1. These
proposed standards would achieve
reductions of up to 24 percent compared
to the 2017 model year baseline level
when fully phased in beginning in the
2027 MY.119 The proposed standards for
Class 7 are described as ‘‘Day Cabs’’
because we are not aware of any Class
7 sleeper cabs in the market today;
however, the agencies propose to
require any Class 7 tractor, regardless of
cab configuration, meet the standards
described as ‘‘Class 7 Day Cab.’’ We
welcome comment on this proposed
approach.
The agencies’ analyses, as discussed
briefly below and in more detail later in
this preamble and in the draft RIA
Chapter 2, indicate that these proposed
standards, if finalized, would be
maximum feasible (within the meaning
of 49 U.S.C. Section 32902 (k)) and
would be appropriate under each
agency’s respective statutory authorities.
The agencies solicit comment on all
aspects of these analyses.
TABLE III–1—PROPOSED PHASE 2 HEAVY-DUTY COMBINATION TRACTOR EPA EMISSIONS STANDARDS (g CO2/ton-mile)
AND NHTSA FUEL CONSUMPTION STANDARDS (gal/1,000 ton-mile)
Day cab
Class 7
Sleeper cab
Class 8
Class 8
2021 Model Year CO2 Grams per Ton-Mile
Low Roof ......................................................................................................................................
Mid Roof ......................................................................................................................................
High Roof .....................................................................................................................................
97
107
109
78
84
86
70
78
77
9.5285
10.5108
10.7073
7.6621
8.2515
8.4479
6.8762
7.6621
7.5639
90
100
101
72
78
79
64
71
70
8.8409
9.8232
9.9214
7.0727
7.6621
7.7603
6.2868
6.9745
6.8762
87
96
96
70
76
76
62
69
67
8.5462
9.4303
6.8762
7.4656
6.0904
6.7780
2021 Model Year Gallons of Fuel per 1,000 Ton-Mile
Low Roof ......................................................................................................................................
Mid Roof ......................................................................................................................................
High Roof .....................................................................................................................................
2024 Model Year CO2 Grams per Ton-Mile
Low Roof ......................................................................................................................................
Mid Roof ......................................................................................................................................
High Roof .....................................................................................................................................
2024 Model Year and Later Gallons of Fuel per 1,000 Ton-Mile
Low Roof ......................................................................................................................................
Mid Roof ......................................................................................................................................
High Roof .....................................................................................................................................
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2027 Model Year CO2 Grams per Ton-Mile
Low Roof ......................................................................................................................................
Mid Roof ......................................................................................................................................
High Roof .....................................................................................................................................
2027 Model Year and Later Gallons of Fuel per 1,000 Ton-Mile
Low Roof ......................................................................................................................................
Mid Roof ......................................................................................................................................
119 Since the HD Phase 1 tractor standards fully
phase-in by the MY 2017, this is the logical baseline
year.
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TABLE III–1—PROPOSED PHASE 2 HEAVY-DUTY COMBINATION TRACTOR EPA EMISSIONS STANDARDS (g CO2/ton-mile)
AND NHTSA FUEL CONSUMPTION STANDARDS (gal/1,000 ton-mile)—Continued
Day cab
Class 7
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High Roof .....................................................................................................................................
It should be noted that the proposed
HD Phase 2 CO2 and fuel consumptions
standards are not directly comparable to
the Phase 1 standards. This is because
the agencies are proposing several test
procedure changes to more accurately
reflect real world operation of tractors.
These changes will result in the
following differences. First, the same
vehicle evaluated using the proposed
HD Phase 2 version of GEM will obtain
higher (i.e. less favorable) CO2 and fuel
consumption values because the Phase
2 drive cycles include road grade. Road
grade, which (of course) exists in the
real-world, requires the engine to
operate at higher horsepower levels to
maintain speed while climbing a hill.
Even though the engine saves fuel on a
downhill section, the overall impact
increases CO2 emissions and fuel
consumption. The second of the key
differences between the CO2 and fuel
consumption values in Phase 1 and
Phase 2 is due to proposed changes in
the evaluation of aerodynamics. In the
real world, vehicles are exposed to wind
which increases the drag of the vehicle
and in turn increases the power
required to move the vehicle down the
road. To more appropriately reflect the
in-use aerodynamic performance of
tractor-trailers, the agencies are
proposing to input into Phase 2 GEM
the wind averaged coefficient of drag
instead of the no-wind (zero yaw) value
used in Phase 1. The final key difference
between Phase 1 and the proposed
Phase 2 program includes a more
realistic and improved simulation of the
transmission in GEM, which could
increase CO2 and fuel consumption
relative to Phase 1.
The agencies are proposing Phase 2
CO2 emissions and fuel consumption
standards for the combination tractors
that reflect reductions that can be
achieved through improvements in the
tractor’s powertrain, aerodynamics,
tires, and other vehicle systems. The
agencies have analyzed the feasibility of
achieving the proposed CO2 and fuel
consumption standards, and have
identified means of achieving the
proposed standards that are technically
feasible in the lead time afforded,
economically practicable and costeffective. EPA and NHTSA present the
estimated costs and benefits of the
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proposed standards in Section III.D.2. In
developing the proposed standards for
Class 7 and 8 tractors, the agencies have
evaluated the following:
• the current levels of emissions and
fuel consumption
• the kinds of technologies that could
be utilized by tractor and engine
manufacturers to reduce emissions
and fuel consumption from tractors
and associated engines
• the necessary lead time
• the associated costs for the industry
• fuel savings for the consumer
• the magnitude of the CO2 and fuel
savings that may be achieved
The technologies on whose
performance the proposed tractor
standards are predicated include:
Improvements in the engine,
transmission, driveline, aerodynamic
design, tire rolling resistance, other
accessories of the tractor, and extended
idle reduction technologies. These
technologies, and other accessories of
the tractor, are described in draft RIA
Chapter 2.4. The agencies’ evaluation
shows that some of these technologies
are available today, but have very low
adoption rates on current vehicles,
while others will require some lead time
for development. EPA and NHTSA also
present the estimated costs and benefits
of the proposed Class 7 and 8
combination tractor standards in draft
RIA Chapter 2.8 and 2.12, explaining as
well the basis for the agencies’ proposed
stringency level.
As explained below in Section III.D,
EPA and NHTSA have determined that
there would be sufficient lead time to
introduce various tractor and engine
technologies into the fleet starting in the
2021 model year and fully phasing in by
the 2027 model year. This is consistent
with NHTSA’s statutory requirement to
provide four full model years of
regulatory lead time for standards. As
was adopted in Phase 1, the agencies are
proposing for Phase 2 that
manufacturers may generate and use
credits from Class 7 and 8 combination
tractors to show compliance with the
standards. This is discussed further in
Section III.F.
Based on our analysis, the 2027 model
year standards for combination tractors
and engines represent up to a 24 percent
reduction in CO2 emissions and fuel
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9.4303
Sleeper cab
Class 8
7.4656
Class 8
6.5815
consumption over a 2017 model year
baseline tractor, as detailed in Section
III.D.2. In considering the feasibility of
vehicles to comply with the proposed
standards over their useful lives, EPA
also considered the potential for CO2
emissions to increase during the
regulatory useful life of the product. As
we discuss in Phase 1 and separately in
the context of deterioration factor (DF)
testing, we have concluded that CO2
emissions are likely to stay the same or
actually decrease in-use compared to
new certified configurations. In general,
engine and vehicle friction decreases as
products wear, leading to reduced
parasitic losses and consequent lower
CO2 emissions. Similarly, tire rolling
resistance falls as tires wear due to the
reduction in tread height. In the case of
aerodynamic components, we project no
change in performance through the
regulatory life of the vehicle since there
is essentially no change in their
physical form as vehicles age. Similarly,
weight reduction elements such as
aluminum wheels are (evidently) not
projected to increase in mass through
time, and hence, we can conclude will
not deteriorate with regard to CO2
performance in-use. Given all of these
considerations, the agencies are
confident in projecting that the tractor
standards being proposed today would
be technically feasible throughout the
regulatory useful life of the program.
(2) Proposed Non-CO2 GHG Standards
for Tractors
EPA is also proposing standards to
control non-CO2 GHG emissions from
Class 7 and 8 combination tractors.
(a) N2O and CH4 Emissions
The proposed heavy-duty engine
standards for both N2O and CH4 as well
as details of the proposed standards are
included in the discussion in Section
II.D.3 and II.D.4. No additional controls
for N2O or CH4 emissions beyond those
in the proposed HD Phase 2 engine
standards are being considered for the
tractor category.
(b) HFC Emissions
Manufacturers can reduce
hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) emissions
from air conditioning (A/C) leakage
emissions in two ways. First, they can
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utilize leak-tight A/C system
components. Second, manufacturers can
largely eliminate the global warming
impact of leakage emissions by adopting
systems that use an alternative, lowGlobal Warming Potential (GWP)
refrigerant, to replace the commonly
used R–134a refrigerant. EPA proposes
to address HFC emissions by
maintaining the A/C leakage standards
adopted in HD Phase 1 (see 40 CFR
1037.115). EPA believes the Phase 1 use
of leak-tight components is at an
appropriate level of stringency while
maintaining the flexibility to produce
the wide variety of A/C system
configurations required in the tractor
category. In addition, there currently are
not any low GWP refrigerants approved
for the heavy-duty vehicle sector.
Without an alternative refrigerant
approved for this sector, it is
challenging to demonstrate feasibility to
reduce the amount of leakage allowed
under the HFC leakage standard. Please
see Section I.F(1)(b) for a discussion
related to alternative refrigerants.
(3) PM Emissions From APUs
Auxiliary power units (APUs) can be
used in lieu of operating the main
engine during extended idle operations
to provide climate control and power to
the driver. APUs can reduce fuel
consumption, NOX, HC, CH4, and CO2
emissions when compared to main
engine idling.120 However, a potential
unintended consequence of reducing
CO2 emissions from combination
tractors through the use of APUs during
extended idle operation is an increase in
PM emissions. Therefore, EPA is
seeking comment on the need and
appropriateness to further reduce PM
emissions from APUs.
EPA conducted an analysis evaluating
the potential impact on PM emissions
due to an increase in APU adoption
rates using MOVES. In this analysis,
EPA assumed that these APUs emit
criteria pollutants at the level of the
EPA standard for this type of non-road
diesel engines. Under this assumption,
an APU would emit 1.8 grams PM per
hour, assuming an extended idle load
demand of 4.5 kW (6 hp).121 However,
a 2010 model year or newer tractor that
uses its main engine to idle emits
approximately 0.35 grams PM per
hour.122 The results from these MOVES
runs are shown below in Table III–2.
These results show that an increase in
use of APUs could lead to an overall
increase in PM emissions if left
uncontrolled. Column three labeled
‘‘Proposed Program PM2.5 Emission
Impact without Further PM Control
(tons)’’ shows the incremental increase
in PM2.5 without further regulation of
APU PM2.5 emissions.
TABLE III–2—PROJECTED IMPACT OF INCREASED ADOPTION OF APUS IN
PHASE 2
Baseline HD vehicle
PM2.5 emissions
(tons)
CY
2035 .....................................................................................................................................................
2050 .....................................................................................................................................................
Proposed program
PM2.5a emission
impact without
further PM control
(tons)
21,452
24,675
1,631
2,257
Note:
a Positive numbers mean emissions would increase from baseline to control case. PM
2.5 from tire wear and brake wear are included.
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Since January 1, 2008, California ARB
has prohibited the idling of sleeper cab
tractors during periods of sleep and
rest.123 The regulations apply additional
requirements to diesel-fueled APUs on
tractors equipped with 2007 model year
or newer engines. Truck owners in
California must either: (1) Fit the APU
with an ARB verified Level 3 particulate
control device that achieves 85 percent
reduction in particulate matter; or (2)
have the APU exhaust plumbed into the
vehicle’s exhaust system upstream of
the particulate matter aftertreatment
device.124 Currently ARB includes four
control devices that have been verified
to meet the Level 3 p.m. requirements.
These devices include HUSS
Umwelttechnik GmbH’s FS–MK Series
Diesel Particulate filters, Impco Ecotrans
Technologies’ ClearSky Diesel
Particulate Filter, Thermo King’s
Electric Regenerative Diesel Particulate
Filter, and Proventia’s Electronically
Heated Diesel Particulate Filter. In
addition, ARB has approved a Cummins
integrated diesel-fueled APU and
several fuel-fired heaters produced by
Espar and Webasto.
EPA conducted an evaluation of the
impact of potentially requiring further
PM control from APUs nationwide. As
shown in Table III–2, EPA projects that
the HD Phase 2 program as proposed
(without additional PM controls) would
increase PM2.5 emissions by 1,631 tons
in 2035 and 2,257 tons in 2050. The
annual impact of a program to further
control PM could lead to a reduction of
PM2.5 emissions nationwide by 3,084
tons in 2035 and by 4,344 tons in 2050,
as shown in Table III–3 the column
labeled ‘‘Net Impact on National PM2.5
Emission with Further PM Control of
APUs (tons).’’
120 U.S. EPA. Development of Emission Rates for
Heavy-Duty Vehicles in the Motor Vehicle
Emissions Simulator MOVES 2010. EPA–420–B–
12–049. August 2012.
121 Tier 4, less-than-8 kW nonroad compressionignition engine exhaust emissions standards
assumed for APUs: https://www.epa.gov/otaq/
standards/nonroad/nonroadci.htm.
122 U.S. EPA. MOVES2014 Reports. Last accessed
on May 1, 2015 at https://www.epa.gov/otaq/models/
moves/moves-reports.htm.
123 California Air Resources Board. Idle Reduction
Technologies for Sleeper Berth Trucks. Last viewed
on September 19, 2014 at https://www.arb.ca.gov/
msprog/cabcomfort/cabcomfort.htm.
124 California Air Resources Board.
§ 2485(c)(3)(A)(1).
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TABLE III–3—PROJECTED IMPACT OF FURTHER CONTROL ON PM2.5 EMISSIONS A
Baseline national
heavy-duty vehicle
PM2.5 emissions
(tons)
CY
2035 .........................................................................
2050 .........................................................................
Proposed HD
phase 2 program
national PM2.5 Emissions without Further
PM Control
(tons)
Proposed HD Phase
2 Program National
PM2.5
emissions with
further pm control
(tons)
Net impact on
national PM2.5
emission with further
PM
control of APUs
(tons)
23,083
26,932
19,999
22,588
¥3,084
¥4,344
21,452
24,675
Note:
a PM
2.5 from tire wear and brake wear are included.
EPA developed long-term cost
projections for catalyzed diesel
particulate filters (DPF) as part of the
Nonroad Diesel Tier 4 rulemaking. In
that rulemaking, EPA estimated the DPF
costs would add $580 to the cost of 150
horsepower engines (69 FR 39126, June
29, 2004). On the other hand, ARB
estimated the cost of retrofitting a diesel
powered APU with a PM trap to be
$2,000 in 2005.125 The costs of a DPF for
an APU that provides less than 25
horsepower would be less than the
projected cost of a 150 HP engine
because the filter volume is in general
proportional to the engine-out emissions
and exhaust flow rate. Proventia is
charging customers $2,240 for
electronically heated DPF.126 EPA
welcomes comments on cost estimates
associated with DPF systems for APUs.
EPA requests comments on the
technical feasibility of diesel particulate
filters ability to reduce PM emissions by
85 percent from non-road engines used
to power APUs. EPA also requests
comments on whether the technology
costs outlined above are accurate, and if
so, if projected reductions are
appropriate taking into account cost,
noise, safety, and energy factors. See
CAA section 213(a)(4).
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(4) Proposed Exclusions From the Phase
2 Tractor Standards
As noted above, in Phase 1, the
agencies adopted provisions to allow
tractor manufacturers to reclassify
certain tractors as vocational
vehicles.127 The agencies propose in
Phase 2 to continue to allow
manufacturers to exclude certain
vocational-types of tractors from the
combination tractor standards and
instead be subject to the vocational
125 California Air Resources Board. Staff Report:
Initial Statement of Reasons; Notice of Public
Hearing to Consider Requirements to Reduce Idling
Emissions From New and In-Use Trucks, Beginning
in 2008. September 1, 2005. Page 38. Last viewed
on October 20, 2014 at https://www.arb.ca.gov/
regact/hdvidle/isor.pdf.
126 Proventia. Tripac Filter Kits. Last accessed on
October 21, 2014 at https://
www.proventiafilters.com/purchase.html.
127 See 40 CFR 1037.630.
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vehicle standards. However, the
agencies propose to set unique
standards for tractors used in heavy
haul applications in Phase 2. Details
regarding the proposed heavy-haul
standards are included below in Section
II.D.3.
During the development of Phase 1,
the agencies received multiple
comments from several stakeholders
supporting an approach for an
alternative treatment of a subset of
tractors because they were designed to
operate at lower speeds, in stop and go
traffic, and sometimes operate at higher
weights than the typical line-haul
tractor. These types of applications have
limited potential for improvements in
aerodynamic performance to reduce CO2
emissions and fuel consumption.
Consistent with the agencies’ approach
in Phase 1, the agencies agree that these
vocational tractors are operated
differently than line-haul tractors and
therefore fit more appropriately into the
vocational vehicle category. However,
we need to continue to ensure that only
tractors that are truly vocational tractors
are classified as such.128 A vehicle
determined by the manufacturer to be a
HHD vocational tractor would fall into
one of the HHD vocational vehicle
subcategories and be regulated as a
vocational vehicle. Similarly, MHD
tractors which the manufacturer chooses
to reclassify as vocational tractors
would be regulated as a MHD vocational
vehicle. Specifically, the agencies are
proposing to change the provisions in
EPA’s 40 CFR 1037.630 and NHTSA’s
regulation at 49 CFR 523.2 and only
allow the following two types of
vocational tractors to be eligible for
reclassification by the manufacturer:
(1) Low-roof tractors intended for
intra-city pickup and delivery, such as
those that deliver bottled beverages to
retail stores.
(2) Tractors intended for off-road
operation (including mixed service
operation), such as those with
reinforced frames and increased ground
clearance.129
Because the difference between some
vocational tractors and line-haul tractors
is potentially somewhat subjective, we
are also proposing to continue to limit
the use of this provision to a rolling
three year sales limit of 21,000
vocational tractors per manufacturer
consistent with past production
volumes of such vehicles. We propose
to carry-over the existing three year
sales limit with the recognition that
heavy-haul tractors would no longer be
permitted to be treated as vocational
vehicles (suggesting a lower volumetric
cap could be appropriate) but that the
heavy-duty market has improved since
the development of the HD Phase 1 rule
(suggesting the need for a higher sales
cap). The agencies welcome comment
on whether the proposed sales volume
limit is set at an appropriate level
looking into the future.
Also in Phase 1, EPA determined that
manufacturers that met the small
business criteria specified in 13 CFR
121.201 for ‘‘Heavy Duty Truck
Manufacturing’’ were not subject to the
greenhouse gas emissions standards of
40 CFR 1037.106.130 The regulations
required that qualifying manufacturers
must notify the Designated Compliance
Officer each model year before
introducing the vehicles into commerce.
The manufacturers are also required to
label the vehicles to identify them as
excluded vehicles. EPA and NHTSA are
seeking comments on eliminating this
provision for tractor manufacturers in
the Phase 2 program. The agencies are
aware of two second stage
manufacturers building custom sleeper
cab tractors. We could treat these
vehicles in one of two ways. First, the
vehicles may be considered as
dromedary vehicles and therefore
treated as vocational vehicles.131 Or the
129 See
existing 40 CFR 1037.630(a)(1)(i) through
(iii).
130 See
a part of the end of the year compliance
process, EPA and NHTSA verify manufacturer’s
production reports to avoid any abuse of the
vocational tractor allowance.
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128 As
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40 CFR 1037.150(c).
dromedary is a box, deck, or plate mounted
behind the tractor cab and forward of the fifth
wheel on the frame of the power unit of a tractortrailer combination to carry freight.
131 A
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agencies could provide provisions that
stated if a manufacturer changed the
cab, but not the frontal area of the
vehicle, then it could retain the
aerodynamic bin of the original tractor.
We welcome comments on these
considerations.
EPA is proposing to not exempt glider
kits from the Phase 2 GHG emission
standards.132 Gliders and glider kits are
exempt from NHTSA’s Phase 1 fuel
consumption standards. For EPA
purposes, the CO2 provisions of Phase 1
exempted gliders and glider kits
produced by small businesses but did
not include such a blanket exemption
for other glider kits.133 Thus, some
gliders and glider kits are already
subject to the requirement to obtain a
vehicle certificate prior to introduction
into commerce as a new vehicle.
However, the agencies believe glider
manufacturers may not understand how
these regulations apply to them,
resulting in a number of uncertified
vehicles.
EPA is concerned about adverse
economic impacts on small businesses
that assemble glider kits and glider
vehicles. Therefore, EPA is proposing an
option that would grandfather existing
small businesses, but cap annual
production based on their recent sales.
EPA requests comment on whether any
special provisions would be needed to
accommodate glider kits. See Section
XIV for additional discussion of the
proposed requirements for glider
vehicles.
Similarly, NHTSA is considering
including glider vehicles under its
Phase 2 program. The agencies request
comment on their respective
considerations.
We believe that the agencies
potentially having different policies for
glider kits and glider vehicles under the
Phase 2 program would not result in
problematic disharmony between the
NHTSA and EPA programs, because of
the small number of vehicles that would
be involved. EPA believes that its
proposed changes would result in the
glider market returning to the pre-2007
levels, in which fewer than 1,000 glider
vehicles would be produced in most
years. Only non-exempt glider vehicles
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132 Glider
vehicles are new vehicles produced to
accept rebuilt engines (or other used engines) along
with used axles and/or transmissions. The common
commercial term ‘‘glider kit’’ is used here primarily
to refer to an assemblage of parts into which the
used/rebuilt engine is installed.
133 Rebuilt engines used in glider vehicles are
subject to EPA criteria pollutant emission standards
applicable for the model year of the engine. See 40
CFR 86.004–40 for requirements that apply for
engine rebuilding. Under existing regulations,
engines that remain in their certified configuration
after rebuilding may continue to be used.
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would be subject to different
requirements under the NHTSA and
EPA regulations. However, we believe
that this is unlikely to exceed a few
hundred vehicles in any year, which
would be few enough not to result in
any meaningful disharmony between
the two agencies.
With regard to NHTSA’s safety
authority over gliders, the agency notes
that it has become increasingly aware of
potential noncompliance with its
regulations applicable to gliders.
NHTSA has learned of manufacturers
who are creating glider vehicles that are
new vehicles under 49 CFR 571.7(e);
however, the manufacturers are not
certifying them and obtaining a new
VIN as required. NHTSA plans to
pursue enforcement actions as
applicable against noncompliant
manufacturers. In addition to
enforcement actions, NHTSA may
consider amending 49 CFR 571.7(e) and
related regulations as necessary. NHTSA
believes manufacturers may not be
using this regulation as originally
intended.
(5) In-Use Standards
Section 202(a)(1) of the CAA specifies
that EPA is to propose emissions
standards that are applicable for the
useful life of the vehicle. The in-use
Phase 2 standards that EPA is proposing
would apply to individual vehicles and
engines, just as EPA adopted for Phase
1. NHTSA is also proposing to use the
same useful life mileage and years as
EPA for Phase 2.
EPA is also not proposing any
changes to provisions requiring that the
useful life for tractors with respect to
CO2 emissions be equal to the respective
useful life periods for criteria pollutants,
as shown below in Table III–4. See 40
CFR 1037.106(e). EPA does not expect
degradation of the technologies
evaluated for Phase 2 in terms of CO2
emissions, therefore we propose no
changes to the regulations describing
compliance with GHG pollutants with
regards to deterioration. See 40 CFR
1037.241. We welcome comments that
highlight a need to change this
approach.
TABLE III–4—TRACTOR USEFUL LIFE
PERIODS
Years
Class 7 Tractors .......
Class 8 Tractors .......
Miles
10
10
185,000
435,000
D. Feasibility of the Proposed Tractor
Standards
This section describes the agencies’
technical feasibility and cost analysis in
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greater detail. Further detail on all of
these technologies can be found in the
draft RIA Chapter 2.
Class 7 and 8 tractors are used in
combination with trailers to transport
freight. The variation in the design of
these tractors and their typical uses
drive different technology solutions for
each regulatory subcategory. As noted
above, the agencies are proposing to
continue the Phase 1 provisions that
treat vocational tractors as vocational
vehicles instead of as combination
tractors, as noted in Section III.C. The
focus of this section is on the feasibility
of the proposed standards for
combination tractors including the
heavy-haul tractors, but not the
vocational tractors.
EPA and NHTSA collected
information on the cost and
effectiveness of fuel consumption and
CO2 emission reducing technologies
from several sources. The primary
sources of information were the
Southwest Research Institute evaluation
of heavy-duty vehicle fuel efficiency
and costs for NHTSA,134 the Department
of Energy’s SuperTruck Program,135
2010 National Academy of Sciences
report of Technologies and Approaches
to Reducing the Fuel Consumption of
Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicles,136
TIAX’s assessment of technologies to
support the NAS panel report,137 the
analysis conducted by the Northeast
States Center for a Clean Air Future,
International Council on Clean
Transportation, Southwest Research
Institute and TIAX for reducing fuel
consumption of heavy-duty long haul
combination tractors (the NESCCAF/
ICCT study),138 and the technology cost
analysis conducted by ICF for EPA.139
134 Reinhart, T.E. (June 2015). Commercial
Medium- and Heavy-Duty Truck Fuel Efficiency
Technology Study—Report #1. (Report No. DOT HS
812 146). Washington, DC: National Highway
Traffic Safety Administration.
135 U.S. Department of Energy. SuperTruck
Initiative. Information available at https://
energy.gov/eere/vehicles/vehicle-technologiesoffice.
136 Committee to Assess Fuel Economy
Technologies for Medium- and Heavy-Duty
Vehicles; National Research Council;
Transportation Research Board (2010).
Technologies and Approaches to Reducing the Fuel
Consumption of Medium- and Heavy-Duty
Vehicles. (‘‘The 2010 NAS Report’’) Washington,
DC, The National Academies Press.
137 TIAX, LLC. ‘‘Assessment of Fuel Economy
Technologies for Medium- and Heavy-Duty
Vehicles,’’ Final Report to National Academy of
Sciences, November 19, 2009.
138 NESCCAF, ICCT, Southwest Research
Institute, and TIAX. Reducing Heavy-Duty Long
Haul Combination Truck Fuel Consumption and
CO2 Emissions. October 2009.
139 ICF International. ‘‘Investigation of Costs for
Strategies to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions for
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(1) What technologies did the agencies
consider to reduce the CO2 emissions
and fuel consumption of combination
tractors?
Manufacturers can reduce CO2
emissions and fuel consumption of
combination tractors through use of
many technologies, including engine,
drivetrain, aerodynamic, tire, extended
idle, and weight reduction technologies.
The agencies’ determination of the
feasibility of the proposed HD Phase 2
standards is based on our projection of
the use of these technologies and an
assessment of their effectiveness. We
will also discuss other technologies that
could potentially be used, such as
vehicle speed limiters, although we are
not basing the proposed standards on
their use for the model years covered by
this proposal, for various reasons
discussed below.
In this section we discuss generally
the tractor and engine technologies that
the agencies considered to improve
performance of heavy-duty tractors,
while Section III.D.2 discusses the
baseline tractor definition and
technology packages the agencies used
to determine the proposed standard
levels.
Engine technologies: As discussed in
Section II.D above, there are several
engine technologies that can reduce fuel
consumption of heavy-duty tractors.
These technologies include friction
reduction, combustion system
optimization, and Rankine cycle. These
engine technologies would impact the
Phase 2 vehicle results because the
agencies propose that the manufacturers
enter a fuel map into GEM.
Aerodynamic technologies: There are
opportunities to reduce aerodynamic
drag from the tractor, but it is sometimes
difficult to assess the benefit of
individual aerodynamic features.
Therefore, reducing aerodynamic drag
requires optimizing of the entire system.
The potential areas to reduce drag
include all sides of the truck—front,
sides, top, rear and bottom. The grill,
bumper, and hood can be designed to
minimize the pressure created by the
front of the truck. Technologies such as
aerodynamic mirrors and fuel tank
fairings can reduce the surface area
perpendicular to the wind and provide
a smooth surface to minimize
disruptions of the air flow. Roof fairings
provide a transition to move the air
smoothly over the tractor and trailer.
Side extenders can minimize the air
entrapped in the gap between the tractor
Heavy-Duty On-Road Vehicles.’’ July 2010. Docket
Number EPA–HQ–OAR–2010–0162–0283.
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and trailer. Lastly, underbelly
treatments can manage the flow of air
underneath the tractor. DOE has
partnered with the heavy-duty industry
to demonstrate vehicles that achieve a
50 percent improvement in freight
efficiency. This SuperTruck program
has led to significant advancements in
the aerodynamics of combination
tractor-trailers. The manufacturers’
SuperTruck demonstration vehicles are
achieving approximately 7 percent
freight efficiency improvements over a
2010 MY baseline vehicle due to
improvements in tractor
aerodynamics.140 The 2010 NAS Report
on heavy-duty trucks found that
aerodynamic improvements which yield
3 to 4 percent fuel consumption
reduction or 6 to 8 percent reduction in
Cd values, beyond technologies used in
today’s SmartWay trucks are
achievable.141
Lower Rolling Resistance Tires: A
tire’s rolling resistance results from the
tread compound material, the
architecture and materials of the casing,
tread design, the tire manufacturing
process, and its operating conditions
(surface, inflation pressure, speed,
temperature, etc.). Differences in rolling
resistance of up to 50 percent have been
identified for tires designed to equip the
same vehicle. Since 2007, SmartWay
designated tractors have had steer tires
with rolling resistance coefficients of
less than 6.6 kg/metric ton for the steer
tire and less than 7.0 kg/metric ton for
the drive tire.142 Low rolling resistance
(LRR) drive tires are currently offered in
both dual assembly and wide-based
single configurations. Wide based single
tires can offer rolling resistance
reduction along with improved
aerodynamics and weight reduction.
The lowest rolling resistance value
submitted for 2014MY GHG and fuel
efficiency certification was 4.3 and 5.0
kg/metric ton for the steer and drive
tires respectively.143
Weight Reduction: Reductions in
vehicle mass lower fuel consumption
and GHG emissions by decreasing the
overall vehicle mass that is moved
down the road. Weight reductions also
increase vehicle payload capability
which can allow additional tons to be
carried by fewer trucks consuming less
fuel and producing lower emissions on
a ton-mile basis. We treated such weight
reduction in two ways in Phase 1 to
account for the fact that combination
tractor-trailers weigh-out approximately
one-third of the time and cube-out
approximately two-thirds of the time.
Therefore in Phase 1 and also as
proposed for Phase 2, one-third of the
weight reduction would be added
payload in the denominator while twothirds of the weight reduction is
subtracted from the overall weight of the
vehicle in GEM. See 76 FR 57153.
In Phase 1, we reflected mass
reductions for specific technology
substitutions (e.g., installing aluminum
wheels instead of steel wheels). These
substitutions were included where we
could with confidence verify the mass
reduction information provided by the
manufacturer. The agencies propose to
expand the list of weight reduction
components which can be input into
GEM in order to provide the
manufacturers with additional means to
comply via GEM with the combination
tractor standards and to further
encourage reductions in vehicle weight.
As in Phase 1, we recognize that there
may be additional potential for weight
reduction in new high strength steel
components which combine the
reduction due to the material
substitution along with improvements
in redesign, as evidenced by the studies
done for light-duty vehicles.144 In the
development of the high strength steel
component weights, we are only
assuming a reduction from material
substitution and no weight reduction
from redesign, since we do not have any
data specific to redesign of heavy-duty
components nor do we have a regulatory
mechanism to differentiate between
material substitution and improved
design. Additional weight reduction
would be evaluated as a potential offcycle credit.
Extended Idle Reduction: Auxiliary
power units (APU), fuel operated
heaters, battery supplied air
conditioning, and thermal storage
systems are among the technologies
available today to reduce main engine
extended idling from sleeper cabs. Each
of these technologies reduces fuel
consumption during idling from a truck
without this equipment (the baseline)
from approximately 0.8 gallons per hour
(main engine idling fuel consumption
rate) to approximately 0.2 gallons per
hour for an APU.145 EPA and NHTSA
agree with the TIAX assessment that a
5 percent reduction in overall fuel
consumption reduction is achievable.146
140 Daimler Truck North America. SuperTruck
Program Vehicle Project Review. June 19, 2014.
141 See TIAX, Note 137, Page 4–40.
142 Ibid.
143 Memo to Docket. Coefficient of Rolling
Resistance Certification Data. See Docket EPA–HQ–
OAR–2014–0827.
144 American Iron and Steel Institute. ‘‘A Cost
Benefit Analysis Report to the North American
Steel Industry on Improved Material and
Powertrain Architectures for 21st Century Trucks.’’
145 See the draft RIA Chapter 2.4.8 for details.
146 See the 2010 NAS Report, Note 136, above, at
128.
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Idle Reduction: Day cab tractors often
idle while cargo is loaded or unloaded,
as well as during the frequent stops that
are inherent with driving in urban
traffic conditions near cargo
destinations. To recognize idle
reduction technologies that reduce
workday idling, the agencies have
developed a new idle-only duty cycle
that is proposed to be used in GEM. As
discussed above in Section II.D, this
new proposed certification test cycle
would measure the amount of fuel saved
and CO2 emissions reduced by two
primary types of technologies: Neutral
idle and stop-start. The proposed rules
apply this test cycle only to vocational
vehicles because these types of vehicles
spend more time at idle than tractors.
However, the agencies request comment
on whether we should extend this
vocational vehicle idle reduction
approach to day cab tractors. Neutral
idle would only be available for tractors
using torque-converter automatic
transmissions, and stop-start would be
available for any tractor. Unlike the
fixed numerical value in GEM for
automatic engine shutdown systems to
reduce overnight idling of combination
tractors, this new idle reduction
approach would result in different
numerical values depending on user
inputs. The required inputs and other
details about this cycle, as it would
apply to vocational vehicles, are
described in the draft RIA Chapter 3. If
we extended this approach to day cab
tractors, we could set a fixed GEM
composite cycle weighting factor at a
value representative of the time spent at
idle for a typical day cab tractor,
possibly five percent. Under this
approach, tractor manufacturers would
be able to select GEM inputs that
identify the presence of workday idle
reduction technologies, and GEM would
calculate the associated benefit due to
these technologies, using this new idleonly cycle as described in the draft RIA
Chapter 3.
The agencies have also received a
letter from the California Air Resources
Board requesting consideration of
credits for reducing solar loads. Solar
reflective paints and solar control
glazing technologies are briefly
discussed in draft RIA Chapter 2.4.9.3.
The agencies request comment on the
Air Resources Board’s letter and
recommendations.147
Vehicle Speed Limiters: Fuel
consumption and GHG emissions
increase proportional to the square of
147 California Air Resources Board. Letter from
Michael Carter to Matthew Spears dated December
3, 2014. Solar Control: Heavy-Duty Vehicles White
Paper. Docket EPA–HA–OAR–2014–0827.
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vehicle speed. Therefore, lowering
vehicle speeds can significantly reduce
fuel consumption and GHG emissions.
A vehicle speed limiter (VSL), which
limits the vehicle’s maximum speed, is
another technology option for
compliance that is already utilized
today by some fleets (though the typical
maximum speed setting is often higher
than 65 mph).
Downsized Engines and
Downspeeding: As tractor manufacturers
continue to reduce the losses due to
vehicle loads, such as aerodynamic drag
and rolling resistance, the amount of
power required to move the vehicle
decreases. In addition, engine
manufacturers continue to improve the
power density of heavy-duty engines
through means such as reducing the
engine friction due to smaller surface
area. These two changes lead to the
ability for truck purchasers to select
lower displacement engines while
maintaining the previous level of
performance. Engine downsizing could
be more effective if it is combined with
the downspeeding assuming increased
BMEP does not affect durability. The
increased efficiency of the vehicle
moves the operating points down to a
lower load zone on a fuel map, which
often moves the engine away from its
sweet spot to a less efficient zone. In
order to compensate for this loss,
downspeeding allows the engine to run
at a lower engine speed and move back
to higher load zones, thus can slightly
improve fuel efficiency. Reducing the
engine size allows the vehicle operating
points to move back to the sweet spot,
thus further improving fuel efficiency.
Engine downsizing can be accounted for
as a vehicle technology through the use
of the engine’s fuel map in GEM.
Transmission: As discussed in the
2010 NAS report, automatic (AT) and
automated manual transmissions (AMT)
may offer the ability to improve vehicle
fuel consumption by optimizing gear
selection compared to an average
driver.148 However, as also noted in the
report and in the supporting TIAX
report, the improvement is very
dependent on the driver of the truck,
such that reductions ranged from 0 to 8
percent.149 Well-trained drivers would
be expected to perform as well or even
better than an automatic transmission
148 Manual transmissions require the driver to
shift the gears and manually engage and disengage
the clutch. Automatic transmissions shift gears
through computer controls and typically include a
torque converter. An AMT operates similar to a
manual transmission, except that an automated
clutch actuator disengages and engages the
drivetrain instead of a human driver. An AMT does
not include a clutch pedal controllable by the driver
or a torque converter.
149 See TIAX, Note 137, above at 4–70.
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since the driver can see the road ahead
and anticipate a changing stoplight or
other road condition that neither an
automatic nor automated manual
transmission can anticipate. However,
poorly-trained drivers that shift too
frequently or not frequently enough to
maintain optimum engine operating
conditions could be expected to realize
improved in-use fuel consumption by
switching from a manual transmission
to an automatic or automated manual
transmission. As transmissions continue
to evolve, we are now seeing in the
European heavy-duty vehicle market the
addition of dual clutch transmissions
(DCT). DCTs operate similar to AMTs,
but with two clutches so that the
transmission can maintain engine speed
during a shift which improves fuel
efficiency. We believe there may be real
benefits in reduced fuel consumption
and GHG emissions through the
adoption of dual clutch, automatic or
automated manual transmission
technology.
Low Friction Transmission, Axle, and
Wheel Bearing Lubricants: The 2010
NAS report assessed low friction
lubricants for the drivetrain as
providing a 1 percent improvement in
fuel consumption based on fleet
testing.150 A field trial of European
medium-duty trucks found an average
fuel consumption improvement of 1.8
percent using SAE 5W–30 engine oil,
SAE 75W90 axle oil and SAE 75W80
transmission oil when compared to SAE
15W40 engine oil and SAE 90W axle oil,
and SAE 80W transmission oil.151 The
light-duty 2012–16 MY vehicle rule and
the pickup truck portion of this program
estimate that low friction lubricants can
have an effectiveness value between 0
and 1 percent compared to traditional
lubricants.
Drivetrain: Most tractors today have
three axles—a steer axle and two rear
drive axles, and are commonly referred
to as 6x4 tractors. Manufacturers offer
6x2 tractors that include one rear drive
axle and one rear non-driving axle. The
6x2 tractors offer three distinct benefits.
First, the non-driving rear axle does not
have internal friction and therefore
reduces the overall parasitic losses in
the drivetrain. In addition, the 6x2
configuration typically weighs
approximately 300 to 400 lbs less than
150 See
the 2010 NAS Report, Note 136, page 67.
D.A., et al. ‘‘The Effect of Engine, Axle,
and Transmission Lubricant, and Operating
Conditions on Heavy Duty Diesel Fuel Economy.
Part 1: Measurements.’’ SAE 2011–01–2129. SAE
International Journal of Fuels and Lubricants.
January 2012.
151 Green,
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a 6x4 configuration.152 Finally, the 6x2
typically costs less or is cost neutral
when compared to a 6x4 tractor.
Sources cite the effectiveness of 6x2
axles at between 1 and 3 percent.153
Similarly, with the increased use of
double and triple trailers, which reduce
the weight on the tractor axles when
compared to a single trailer,
manufacturers offer 4x2 axle
configurations. The 4x2 axle
configuration would have as good as or
better fuel efficiency performance than
a 6x2.
Accessory Improvements: Parasitic
losses from the engine come from many
systems, including the water pump, oil
pump, and power steering pump.
Reductions in parasitic losses are one of
the areas being developed under the
DOE SuperTruck program. As presented
in the DOE Merit reviews, Navistar
stated that they demonstrated a 0.45
percent reduction in fuel consumption
through water pump improvements and
0.3 percent through oil pump
improvements compared to a current
engine. In addition, Navistar showed a
0.9 percent benefit for a variable speed
water pump and variable displacement
oil pump. Detroit Diesel reports a 0.5
percent coming from improved water
pump efficiency.154 It should be noted
that water pump improvements include
both pump efficiency improvement and
variable speed or on/off controls. Lube
pump improvements are primarily
achieved using variable displacement
pumps and may also include efficiency
improvement. All of these results shown
in this paragraph are demonstrated
through the DOE SuperTruck program at
single operating point on the engine
map, and therefore the overall expected
reduction of these technologies is less
than the single point result.
Intelligent Controls: Skilled drivers
know how to control a vehicle to obtain
maximum fuel efficiency by, among
other things, considering road terrain.
For example, the driver may allow the
vehicle to slow down below the target
speed on an uphill and allow it to go
over the target speed when going
downhill, to essentially smooth out the
engine demand. Electronic controls can
be developed to essentially mimic this
activity. The agencies propose to
provide a 2 percent reduction in fuel
consumption and CO2 emissions for
152 North American Council for Freight
Efficiency. ’’Confidence Findings on the Potential of
6x2 Axles.’’ 2014. Page 16.
153 Reinhart, T.E. (June 2015). Commercial
Medium- and Heavy-Duty Truck Fuel Efficiency
Technology Study—Report #1. (Report No. DOT HS
812 146). Washington, DC: National Highway
Traffic Safety Administration.
154 See the draft RIA Chapter 2.4 for details.
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vehicles configured with intelligent
controls, such as predictive cruise
control.
Automatic Tire Inflation Systems:
Proper tire inflation is critical to
maintaining proper stress distribution in
the tire, which reduces heat loss and
rolling resistance. Tires with reduced
inflation pressure exhibit a larger
footprint on the road, more sidewall
flexing and tread shearing, and
therefore, have greater rolling resistance
than a tire operating at its optimal
inflation pressure. Bridgestone tested
the effect of inflation pressure and
found a 2 percent variation in fuel
consumption over a 40 psi range.155
Generally, a 10 psi reduction in overall
tire inflation results in about a 1 percent
reduction in fuel economy.156 To
achieve the intended fuel efficiency
benefits of low rolling resistance tires, it
is critical that tires are maintained at the
proper inflation pressure.
Proper tire inflation pressure can be
maintained with a rigorous tire
inspection and maintenance program or
with the use of tire pressure and
inflation systems. According to a study
conducted by FMCSA in 2003, about 1
in 5 tractors/trucks is operating with 1
or more tires underinflated by at least 20
psi.157 A 2011 FMCSA study estimated
underinflation accounts for one service
call per year and increases tire
procurement costs 10 to 13 percent. The
study found that total operating costs
can increase by $600 to $800 per year
due to underinflation.158 A recent study
by The North American Council on
Freight Efficiency, found that adoption
of tire pressure monitoring systems is
increasing. It also found that reliability
and durability of commercially available
tire pressure systems are good and early
issues with the systems have been
addressed.159 These automatic tire
inflation systems monitor tire pressure
and also automatically keep tires
155 Bridgestone Tires. Real Questions, Real
Answers. https://www.bridgestonetrucktires.com/us
_eng/real/magazines/ra_special-edit_4/ra_special4_
fuel-tires.asp.
156 ‘‘Factors Affecting Truck Fuel Economy,’’
Goodyear, Radial Truck and Retread Service
Manual. Accessed February 16, 2010 at https://
www.goodyear.com/truck/pdf/radialretserv/Retread
_S9_V.pdf.
157 American Trucking Association. Tire Pressure
Monitoring and Inflation Maintenance. June 2010.
Page 3. Last accessed on December 15, 2014 at
https://www.trucking.org/ATA%20Docs/About/
Organization/TMC/Documents/Position%20Papers/
Study%20Group%20Information%20Reports/
Tire%20Pressure%20Monitoring%20and%20
Inflation%20Maintenance%E2%80%94TMC
%20I.R.%202010-2.pdf.
158 TMC Future Truck Committee Presentation
‘‘FMCSA Tire Pressure Monitoring Field
Operational Test Results,’’ February 8, 2011.
159 North American Council for Freight
Efficiency, ‘‘Tire Pressure Systems,’’ 2013.
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inflated to a specific level. The agencies
propose to provide a 1 percent CO2 and
fuel consumption reduction value for
tractors with automatic tire inflation
systems installed.
Tire pressure monitoring systems
notify the operator of tire pressure, but
require the operator to manually inflate
the tires to the optimum pressure.
Because of the dependence on the
operator’s action, the agencies are not
proposing to provide a reduction value
for tire pressure monitoring systems. We
request comment on this approach and
seek data from those that support a
reduction value be assigned to tire
pressure monitoring systems.
Hybrid: Hybrid powertrain
development in Class 7 and 8 tractors
has been limited to a few manufacturer
demonstration vehicles to date. One of
the key benefit opportunities for fuel
consumption reduction with hybrids is
less fuel consumption when a vehicle is
idling, but the standard is already
premised on use of extended idle
reduction so use of hybrid technology
would duplicate many of the same
emission reductions attributable to
extended idle reduction. NAS estimated
that hybrid systems would cost
approximately $25,000 per tractor in the
2015 through the 2020 time frame and
provide a potential fuel consumption
reduction of 10 percent, of which 6
percent is idle reduction which can be
achieved (less expensively) through the
use of other idle reduction
technologies.160 The limited reduction
potential outside of idle reduction for
Class 8 sleeper cab tractors is due to the
mostly highway operation and limited
start-stop operation. Due to the high cost
and limited benefit during the model
years at issue in this action (as well as
issues regarding sufficiency of lead time
(see Section III.D.2 below), the agencies
are not including hybrids in assessing
standard stringency (or as an input to
GEM).
Management: The 2010 NAS report
noted many operational opportunities to
reduce fuel consumption, such as driver
training and route optimization. The
agencies have included discussion of
several of these strategies in draft RIA
Chapter 2, but are not using these
approaches or technologies in the
standard setting process. The agencies
are looking to other resources, such as
EPA’s SmartWay Transport Partnership
and regulations that could potentially be
promulgated by the Federal Highway
Administration and the Federal Motor
Carrier Safety Administration, to
continue to encourage the development
and utilization of these approaches.
160 See
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(2) Projected Technology Effectiveness
and Cost
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EPA and NHTSA project that CO2
emissions and fuel consumption
reductions can be feasibly and costeffectively met through technological
improvements in several areas. The
agencies evaluated each technology and
estimated the most appropriate adoption
rate of technology into each tractor
subcategory. The next sections describe
the baseline vehicle configuration, the
effectiveness of the individual
technologies, the costs of the
technologies, the projected adoption
rates of the technologies into the
regulatory subcategories, and finally the
derivation of the proposed standards.
The agencies propose Phase 2
standards that project by 2027, all highroof tractors would have aerodynamic
performance equal to or better today’s
SmartWay performance—which
represents the best of today’s
technology. This would equate to
having 40 percent of new high roof
sleeper cabs in 2027 complying with the
current best practices and 60 percent of
the new high-roof sleeper cab tractors
sold in 2027 having better aerodynamic
performance than the best tractors
available today. For tire rolling
resistance, we premised the proposed
standards on the assumption that nearly
all tires in 2027 would have rolling
resistance equal to or superior to tires
meeting today’s SmartWay designation.
As discussed in Section II.D, the
agencies assume the proposed 2027 MY
engines would achieve an additional 4
percent improvement over Phase 1
engines and we project would include
15 percent of waste heat recovery
(WHR) and many other advanced engine
technologies. In addition, we are
proposing standards that project
improvements to nearly all of today’s
transmissions, incorporation of
extended idle reduction technologies on
90 percent of sleeper cabs, and
significant adoption of other types of
technologies such as predictive cruise
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control and automatic tire inflation
systems.
In addition to the high cost and
limited utility of hybrids for many
tractor drive cycles noted above, the
agencies believe that hybrid powertrains
systems for tractors may not be
sufficiently developed and the
necessary manufacturing capacity put in
place to base a standard on any
significant volume of hybrid tractors.
Unlike hybrids for vocational vehicles
and light-duty vehicles, the agencies are
not aware of any full hybrid systems
currently developed for long haul
tractor applications. To date, hybrid
systems for tractors have been primarily
focused on idle shutdown technologies
and not on the broader energy storage
and recovery systems necessary to
achieve reductions over typical vehicle
drive cycles. The proposed standards
reflect the potential for idle shutdown
technologies through GEM. Further as
highlighted by the 2010 NAS report, the
agencies do believe that full hybrid
powertrains may have the potential in
the longer term to provide significant
improvements in tractor fuel efficiency
and to greenhouse gas emission
reductions. However, due to the high
cost, limited benefit during highway
driving, and lacking any existing
systems or manufacturing base, we
cannot conclude with certainty, absent
additional information, that such
technology would be available for
tractors in the 2021–2027 timeframe.
However the agencies welcome
comment from industry and others on
their projected timeline for deployment
of hybrid powertrains for tractor
applications.
(a) Tractor Baselines for Costs and
Effectiveness
The fuel efficiency and CO2 emissions
of combination tractors vary depending
on the configuration of the tractor. Many
aspects of the tractor impact its
performance, including the engine,
transmission, drive axle, aerodynamics,
and rolling resistance. For each
subcategory, the agencies selected a
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theoretical tractor to represent the
average 2017 model year tractor that
meets the Phase 1 standards (see 76 FR
57212, September 15, 2011). These
tractors are used as baselines from
which to evaluate costs and
effectiveness of additional technologies
and standards. The specific attributes of
each tractor subcategory are listed below
in Table III–5. Using these values, the
agencies assessed the CO2 emissions
and fuel consumption performance of
the proposed baseline tractors using the
proposed version of Phase 2 GEM. The
results of these simulations are shown
below in Table III–6.
As noted earlier, the Phase 1 2017
model year tractor standards and the
baseline 2017 model year tractor results
are not directly comparable. The same
set of aerodynamic and tire rolling
resistance technologies were used in
both setting the Phase 1 standards and
determining the baseline of the Phase 2
tractors. However, there are several
aspects that differ. First, a new version
of GEM was developed and validated to
provide additional capabilities,
including more refined modeling of
transmissions and engines. Second, the
determination of the proposed HD Phase
2 CdA value takes into account a revised
test procedure, a new standard reference
trailer, and wind averaged drag as
discussed below in Section III.E. In
addition, the proposed HD Phase 2
version of GEM includes road grade in
the 55 mph and 65 mph highway cycles,
as discussed below in Section III.E.
Finally, the agencies assessed the
current level of automatic engine
shutdown and idle reduction
technologies used by the tractor
manufacturers to comply with the 2014
model year CO2 and fuel consumption
standards. To date, the manufacturers
are meeting the 2014 model year
standards without the use of this
technology. Therefore, in this proposal
the agencies reverted back to the
baseline APU adoption rate of 30
percent, the value used in the Phase 1
baseline.
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TABLE III–5—GEM INPUTS FOR THE BASELINE CLASS 7 AND 8 TRACTOR
Class 7
Class 8
Day cab
Low roof
Day cab
Mid roof
High roof
Low roof
Sleeper cab
Mid roof
High roof
Low roof
Mid roof
High roof
2017 MY 15L
Engine 455
HP
2017 MY 15L
Engine 455
HP
2017 MY 15L
Engine 455
HP
2017 MY 15L
Engine 455
HP
4.95
6.35
6.22
6.87
6.87
6.54
7.26
7.26
6.92
30%
30%
30%
Engine
2017
11L
gine
HP
MY
En350
2017 MY 11L
Engine 350
HP
2017 MY 11L
Engine 350
HP
2017 MY 15L
Engine 455
HP
2017 MY 15L
Engine 455
HP
Aerodynamics (CdA in m2)
5.00
6.40
6.42
5.00
6.40
6.42
Steer Tires (CRR in kg/metric ton)
6.99
6.99
6.87
6.99
6.99
6.87
Drive Tires (CRR in kg/metric ton)
7.38
7.38
7.26
7.38
7.38
7.26
Extended Idle Reduction Adoption Rate
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Transmission = 10 Speed Manual Transmission
Gear Ratios = 12.8, 9.25, 6.76, 4.90, 3.58, 2.61, 1.89, 1.38, 1.00, 0.73
Drive Axle Ratio = 3.70
TABLE III–6—CLASS 7 AND 8 TRACTOR BASELINE CO2 EMISSIONS AND FUEL CONSUMPTION
Class 7
Class 8
Day cab
Day cab
Sleeper cab
Low roof
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CO2 (grams CO2/ton-mile) ...........
Fuel Consumption (gal/1,000 tonmile) ..........................................
Mid roof
High roof
Low roof
Mid roof
High roof
Low roof
Mid roof
High roof
107
118
121
86
93
95
79
87
88
10.5
The fuel consumption and CO2
emissions in the baseline described
above remains the same over time with
no assumed improvements after 2017,
absent a Phase 2 regulation. An
alternative baseline was also evaluated
by the agencies in which there is a
continuing uptake of technologies in the
tractor market that reduce fuel
consumption and CO2 emissions absent
a Phase 2 regulation. This alternative
baseline, referred to as the more
dynamic baseline, was developed to
estimate the effect of market pressures
and non-regulatory government
initiatives to improve tractor fuel
consumption. The more dynamic
baseline assumes that the significant
level of research funded and conducted
by the Federal government, industry,
academia and other organizations will,
in the future, result the adoption of
some technologies beyond the levels
required to comply with Phase 1
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11.6
11.9
8.4
9.1
standards. One example of such
research is the Department of Energy
Super Truck program 161 which has a
goal of demonstrating cost-effective
measures to improve the efficiency of
Class 8 long-haul freight trucks by 50
percent by 2015. The more dynamic
baseline also assumes that
manufacturers will not cease offering
fuel efficiency improving technologies
that currently have significant market
penetration, such as automated manual
transmissions. The baselines (one for
each of the nine tractor types) are
characterized by fuel consumption and
CO2 emissions that gradually decrease
between 2019 and 2028. In 2028, the
fuel consumption for the alternative
tractor baselines is approximately 4.0
percent lower than those shown in
161 U.S. Department of Energy. ‘‘SuperTruck
Making Leaps in Fuel Efficiency.’’ 2014. Last
accessed on May 10, 2015 at https://energy.gov/eere/
articles/supertruck-making-leaps-fuel-efficiency.
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9.3
7.8
8.5
8.6
Table III–6. This results from the
assumed introduction of aerodynamic
technologies such as down exhaust,
underbody airflow treatment in addition
to tires with lower rolling resistance.
The assumed introduction of these
technologies reduces the CdA of the
baseline tractors and CRR of the tractor
tires. To take one example, the CdA for
baseline high roof sleeper cabs in Table
III–5 is 6.22 (m2) in 2018. In 2028, the
CdA of a high roof sleeper cab would be
assumed to still be 6.22 m2 in the
baseline case outlined above.
Alternatively, in the dynamic baseline,
the CdA for high roof sleeper cabs is
5.61 (m2) in 2028 due to assumed
market penetration of technologies
absent the Phase 2 regulation. The
dynamic baseline analysis is discussed
in more detail in draft RIA Chapter 11.
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(b) Tractor Technology Packages
The agencies’ assessment of the
proposed technology effectiveness was
developed through the use of the GEM
in coordination with modeling
conducted by Southwest Research
Institute. The agencies developed the
proposed standards through a three-step
process, similar to the approach used in
Phase 1. First, the agencies developed
technology performance characteristics
for each technology, as described below.
Each technology is associated with an
input parameter which in turn would be
used as an input to the Phase 2 GEM
simulation tool and its effectiveness
thereby modeled. The performance
levels for the range of Class 7 and 8
tractor aerodynamic packages and
vehicle technologies are described
below in Table III–7. Second, the
agencies combined the technology
performance levels with a projected
technology adoption rate to determine
the GEM inputs used to set the
stringency of the proposed standards.
Third, the agencies input these
parameters into Phase 2 GEM and used
the output to determine the proposed
CO2 emissions and fuel consumption
levels. All percentage improvements
noted below are over the 2017 baseline
tractor.
(i) Engine Improvements
There are several technologies that
could be used to improve the efficiency
of diesel engines used in tractors.
Details of the engine technologies,
adoption rates, and overall fuel
consumption and CO2 emission
reductions are included in Section II.D.
The proposed heavy-duty tractor engine
standards would lead to a 1.5 percent
reduction in 2021MY, a 3.5 percent
reduction in 2024MY, and a 4 percent
reduction in 2027MY. These reductions
would show up in the fuel map used in
GEM.
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(ii) Aerodynamics
The aerodynamic packages are
categorized as Bin I, Bin II, Bin III, Bin
IV, Bin V, Bin VI, or Bin VII based on
the wind averaged drag aerodynamic
performance determined through testing
conducted by the manufacturer. A more
complete description of these
aerodynamic packages is included in
Chapter 2 of the draft RIA. In general,
the proposed CdA values for each
package and tractor subcategory were
developed through EPA’s coastdown
testing of tractor-trailer combinations,
the 2010 NAS report, and SAE papers.
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(iii) Tire Rolling Resistance
The proposed rolling resistance
coefficient target for Phase 2 was
developed from SmartWay’s tire testing
to develop the SmartWay certification,
testing a selection of tractor tires as part
of the Phase 1 and Phase 2 programs,
and from 2014 MY certification data.
Even though the coefficient of tire
rolling resistance comes in a range of
values, to analyze this range, the tire
performance was evaluated at four
levels for both steer and drive tires, as
determined by the agencies. The four
levels are the baseline (average) from
2010, Level I and Level 2 from Phase 1,
and Level 3 that achieves an additional
25 percent improvement over Level 2.
The Level 1 rolling resistance
performance represents the threshold
used to develop SmartWay designated
tires for long haul tractors. The Level 2
threshold represents an incremental
step for improvements beyond today’s
SmartWay level and represents the best
in class rolling resistance of the tires we
tested. The Level 3 values represent the
long-term rolling resistance value that
the agencies predicts could be achieved
in the 2025 timeframe. Given the
multiple year phase-in of the standards,
the agencies expect that tire
manufacturers will continue to respond
to demand for more efficient tires and
will offer increasing numbers of tire
models with rolling resistance values
significantly better than today’s typical
low rolling resistance tires. The tire
rolling resistance level assumed to meet
the 2017 MY Phase 1 standard high roof
sleeper cab is considered to be a
weighted average of 10 percent baseline
rolling resistance, 70 percent Level 1,
and 20 percent Level 2. The tire rolling
resistance to meet the 2017MY Phase 1
standards for the high roof day cab, low
roof sleeper cab, and mid roof sleeper
cab includes 30 percent baseline, 60
percent Level 1 and 10 percent Level 2.
Finally, the low roof day cab 2017MY
standard can be met with a weighted
average rolling resistance consisting of
40 percent baseline, 50 percent Level 1,
and 10 percent Level 2.
(iv) Idle Reduction
The benefits for the extended idle
reductions were developed from
literature, SmartWay work, and the 2010
NAS report. Additional details
regarding the comments and
calculations are included in draft RIA
Section 2.4.
(v) Transmission
The benefits for automated manual,
automatic, and dual clutch
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transmissions were developed from
literature and from simulation modeling
conducted by Southwest Research
Institute. The benefit of these
transmissions is proposed to be set to a
two percent improvement over a manual
transmission due to the automation of
the gear shifting.
(vi) Drivetrain
The reduction in friction due to low
viscosity axle lubricants is set to 0.5
percent. 6x4 and 4x2 axle configurations
lead to a 2.5 percent improvement in
vehicle efficiency. Downspeeding
would be as demonstrated through the
Phase 2 GEM inputs of transmission
gear ratio, drive axle ratio, and tire
diameter. Downspeeding is projected to
improve the fuel consumption by 1.8
percent.
(vii) Accessories and Other
Technologies
Compared to 2017MY air
conditioners, air conditioners with
improved efficiency compressors will
reduce CO2 emissions by 0.5 percent.
Improvements in accessories, such as
power steering, can lead to an efficiency
improvement of 1 percent over the
2017MY baseline. Based on literature
information, intelligent controls such as
predictive cruise control will reduce
CO2 emissions by 2 percent while
automatic tire inflation systems improve
fuel consumption by 1 percent by
keeping tire rolling resistance to its
optimum based on inflation pressure.
(viii) Weight Reduction
The weight reductions were
developed from tire manufacturer
information, the Aluminum
Association, the Department of Energy,
SABIC and TIAX, as discussed above in
Section II.B.3.e.
(ix) Vehicle Speed Limiter
The agencies did not consider the
availability of vehicle speed limiter
technology in setting the Phase 1
stringency levels, and again did not
consider the availability of the
technology in developing regulatory
alternatives for Phase 2. However, as
described in more detail above, speed
limiters could be an effective means for
achieving compliance, if employed on a
voluntary basis.
(x) Summary of Technology
Performance
Table III–7 describes the performance
levels for the range of Class 7 and 8
tractor vehicle technologies.
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TABLE III–7—PROPOSED PHASE 2 TECHNOLOGY INPUTS
Class 7
Class 8
Day cab
Low roof
Day cab
Mid roof
High roof
Low roof
Sleeper cab
Mid roof
High roof
Low roof
Mid roof
High roof
2021MY
15L
Engine
455 HP
2021MY
15L
Engine
455 HP
2021MY
15L
Engine
455 HP
2021MY
15L
Engine
455 HP
2021MY
15L
Engine
455 HP
Engine
2021MY
11L
Engine
350 HP
2021MY
11L
Engine
350 HP
2021MY
11L
Engine
350 HP
2021MY
15L
Engine
455 HP
Aerodynamics (CdA in m2)
Bin
Bin
Bin
Bin
Bin
Bin
Bin
I ..............................................
II .............................................
III ............................................
IV ...........................................
V ............................................
VI ...........................................
VII ..........................................
5.3
4.8
4.3
4.0
N/A
N/A
N/A
6.7
6.2
5.7
5.4
N/A
N/A
N/A
7.6
7.1
6.5
5.8
5.3
4.9
4.5
5.3
4.8
4.3
4.0
N/A
N/A
N/A
6.7
6.2
5.7
5.4
N/A
N/A
N/A
7.6
7.1
6.5
5.8
5.3
4.9
4.5
5.3
4.8
4.3
4.0
N/A
N/A
N/A
6.7
6.2
5.7
5.4
N/A
N/A
N/A
7.4
6.9
6.3
5.6
5.1
4.7
4.3
7.8
6.6
5.7
4.3
7.8
6.6
5.7
4.3
7.8
6.6
5.7
4.3
7.8
6.6
5.7
4.3
7.8
6.6
5.7
4.3
8.2
7.0
6.0
4.5
8.2
7.0
6.0
4.5
8.2
7.0
6.0
4.5
8.2
7.0
6.0
4.5
8.2
7.0
6.0
4.5
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
5%
7%
5%
7%
5%
7%
0%
2
2
2
0%
2
2
2
0%
2
2
2
0%
2
2
2
0%
2
2
2
0.5%
2.5
1.8
0.5%
2.5
1.8
0.5%
2.5
1.8
0.5%
2.5
1.8
0.5%
2.5
1.8
0.5%
1
0.5%
1
0.5%
1
0.5%
1
0.5%
1
2%
1
2%
1
2%
1
2%
1
2%
1
Steer Tires (CRR in kg/metric ton)
Base
Level
Level
Level
.............................................
1 .........................................
2 .........................................
3 .........................................
7.8
6.6
5.7
4.3
7.8
6.6
5.7
4.3
7.8
6.6
5.7
4.3
7.8
6.6
5.7
4.3
Drive Tires (CRR in kg/metric ton)
Base
Level
Level
Level
.............................................
1 .........................................
2 .........................................
3 .........................................
8.2
7.0
6.0
4.5
8.2
7.0
6.0
4.5
8.2
7.0
6.0
4.5
8.2
7.0
6.0
4.5
Idle Reduction (% reduction)
APU ..............................................
Other ............................................
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Transmission Type (% reduction)
Manual .........................................
AMT ..............................................
Auto ..............................................
Dual Clutch ..................................
0%
2
2
2
0%
2
2
2
0%
2
2
2
0%
2
2
2
Driveline (% reduction)
Axle Lubricant ..............................
6×2 or 4×2 Axle ............................
Downspeed ..................................
0.5%
2.5
1.8
0.5%
2.5
1.8
0.5%
2.5
1.8
0.5%
2.5
1.8
Accessory Improvements (% reduction)
A/C ...............................................
Electric Access .............................
0.5%
1
0.5%
1
0.5%
1
0.5%
1
Other Technologies (% reduction)
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1
(c) Tractor Technology Adoption Rates
As explained above, tractor
manufacturers often introduce major
product changes together, as a package.
In this manner the manufacturers can
optimize their available resources,
including engineering, development,
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2%
1
2%
1
2%
1
manufacturing and marketing activities
to create a product with multiple new
features. In addition, manufacturers
recognize that a truck design will need
to remain competitive over the intended
life of the design and meet future
regulatory requirements. In some
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limited cases, manufacturers may
implement an individual technology
outside of a vehicle’s redesign cycle.
With respect to the levels of
technology adoption used to develop
the proposed HD Phase 2 standards,
NHTSA and EPA established technology
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adoption constraints. The first type of
constraint was established based on the
application of fuel consumption and
CO2 emission reduction technologies
into the different types of tractors. For
example, extended idle reduction
technologies are limited to Class 8
sleeper cabs using the reasonable
assumption that day cabs are not used
for overnight hoteling. A second type of
constraint was applied to most other
technologies and limited their adoption
based on factors reflecting the real
world operating conditions that some
combination tractors encounter. This
second type of constraint was applied to
the aerodynamic, tire, powertrain, and
vehicle speed limiter technologies.
Table III–8 and Table III–10, specify
the adoption rates that EPA and NHTSA
used to develop the proposed standards.
The agencies welcome comments on
these adoption rates.
NHTSA and EPA believe that within
each of these individual vehicle
categories there are particular
applications where the use of the
identified technologies would be either
ineffective or not technically feasible.
For example, the agencies are not
predicating the proposed standards on
the use of full aerodynamic vehicle
treatments on 100 percent of tractors
because we know that in many
applications (for example gravel truck
engaged in local aggregate delivery) the
added weight of the aerodynamic
technologies will increase fuel
consumption and hence CO2 emissions
to a greater degree than the reduction
that would be accomplished from the
more aerodynamic nature of the tractor.
(i) Aerodynamics Adoption Rate
The impact of aerodynamics on a
tractor-trailer’s efficiency increases with
vehicle speed. Therefore, the usage
pattern of the vehicle will determine the
benefit of various aerodynamic
technologies. Sleeper cabs are often
used in line haul applications and drive
the majority of their miles on the
highway travelling at speeds greater
than 55 mph. The industry has focused
aerodynamic technology development,
including SmartWay tractors, on these
types of trucks. Therefore the agencies
are proposing the most aggressive
aerodynamic technology application to
this regulatory subcategory. All of the
major manufacturers today offer at least
one SmartWay sleeper cab tractor
model, which is represented as Bin III
aerodynamic performance. The
proposed aerodynamic adoption rate for
Class 8 high roof sleeper cabs in 2027
(i.e., the degree of technology adoption
on which the stringency of the proposed
standard is premised) consists of 20
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percent of Bin IV, 35 percent Bin V, 20
percent Bin VI, and 5 percent Bin VII
reflecting our assessment of the fraction
of tractors in this segment that could
successfully apply these aerodynamic
packages with this amount of lead time.
We believe that there is sufficient lead
time to develop aerodynamic tractors
that can move the entire high roof
sleeper cab aerodynamic performance to
be as good as or better than today’s
SmartWay designated tractors. The
changes required for Bin IV and better
performance reflect the kinds of
improvements projected in the
Department of Energy’s SuperTruck
program. That program assumes that
such systems can be demonstrated on
vehicles by 2017. In this case, the
agencies are projecting that truck
manufacturers would be able to begin
implementing these aerodynamic
technologies as early as 2021 MY on a
limited scale. Importantly, our
averaging, banking and trading
provisions provide manufacturers with
the flexibility (and incentive) to
implement these technologies over time
even though the standard changes in a
single step.
The aerodynamic adoption rates used
to develop the proposed standards for
the other tractor regulatory categories
are less aggressive than for the Class 8
sleeper cab high roof. Aerodynamic
improvements through new tractor
designs and the development of new
aerodynamic components is an
inherently slow and iterative process.
The agencies recognize that there are
tractor applications which require on/
off-road capability and other truck
functions which restrict the type of
aerodynamic equipment applicable. We
also recognize that these types of trucks
spend less time at highway speeds
where aerodynamic technologies have
the greatest benefit. The 2002 VIUS data
ranks trucks by major use.162 The heavy
trucks usage indicates that up to 35
percent of the trucks may be used in on/
off-road applications or heavier
applications. The uses include
construction (16 percent), agriculture
(12 percent), waste management (5
percent), and mining (2 percent).
Therefore, the agencies analyzed the
technologies to evaluate the potential
restrictions that would prevent 100
percent adoption of more advanced
aerodynamic technologies for all of the
tractor regulatory subcategories.
As discussed in Section III.C.2, the
agencies propose to increase the number
of aerodynamic bins for low and mid
roof tractors from the two levels adopted
162 U.S. Department of Energy. Transportation
Energy Data Book, Edition 28–2009. Table 5.7.
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40223
in Phase 1 to four levels in Phase 2. The
agencies propose to increase the number
of bins for these tractors to reflect the
actual range of aerodynamic
technologies effective in low and mid
roof tractor applications. The
aerodynamic improvements to the
bumper, hood, windshield, mirrors, and
doors are developed for the high roof
tractor application and then carried over
into the low and mid roof applications.
(ii) Low Rolling Resistance Tire
Adoption Rate
For the tire manufacturers to further
reduce tire rolling resistance, the
manufacturers must consider several
performance criteria that affect tire
selection. The characteristics of a tire
also influence durability, traction
control, vehicle handling, comfort, and
retreadability. A single performance
parameter can easily be enhanced, but
an optimal balance of all the criteria
will require improvements in materials
and tread design at a higher cost, as
estimated by the agencies. Tire design
requires balancing performance, since
changes in design may change different
performance characteristics in opposing
directions. Similar to the discussion
regarding lesser aerodynamic
technology application in tractor
segments other than sleeper cab high
roof, the agencies believe that the
proposed standards should not be
premised on 100 percent application of
Level 3 tires in all tractor segments
given the potential interference with
vehicle utility that could result.
(iii) Weight Reduction Technology
Adoption Rate
Unlike in HD Phase 1, the agencies
propose setting the 2021 through 2027
model year tractor standards without
using weight reduction as a technology
to demonstrate the feasibility. However,
as described in Section III.C.2 below,
the agencies are proposing an expanded
list of weight reduction options which
could be input into the GEM by the
manufacturers to reduce their certified
CO2 emission and fuel consumption
levels. The agencies view weight
reduction as a technology with a high
cost that offers a small benefit in the
tractor sector. For example, our estimate
of a 400 pound weight reduction would
cost $2,050 (2012$) in 2021MY, but
offers a 0.3 percent reduction in fuel
consumption and CO2 emissions.
(iv) Idle Reduction Technology
Adoption Rate
Idle reduction technologies provide
significant reductions in fuel
consumption and CO2 emissions for
Class 8 sleeper cabs and are available on
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the market today. There are several
different technologies available to
reduce idling. These include APUs,
diesel fired heaters, and battery
powered units. Our discussions with
manufacturers indicate that idle
technologies are sometimes installed in
the factory, but it is also a common
practice to have the units installed after
the sale of the truck. We would like to
continue to incentivize this practice and
to do so in a manner that the emission
reductions associated with idle
reduction technology occur in use.
Therefore, as adopted in Phase 1, we are
allowing only idle emission reduction
technologies which include an
automatic engine shutoff (AES) with
some override provisions.163 However,
we welcome comment on other
approaches that would appropriately
quantify the reductions that would be
experienced in the real world.
We propose an overall 90 percent
adoption rate for this technology for
Class 8 sleeper cabs. The agencies are
unaware of reasons why AES with
extended idle reduction technologies
could not be applied to this high
fraction of tractors with a sleeper cab,
except those deemed a vocational
tractor, in the available lead time.
The agencies are interested in
extending the idle reduction benefits
beyond Class 8 sleepers, to day cabs.
The agencies reviewed literature to
quantify the amount of idling which is
conducted outside of hoteling
operations. One study, conducted by
Argonne National Laboratory, identified
several different types of trucks which
might idle for extended amounts of time
during the work day.164 Idling may
occur during the delivery process,
queuing at loading docks or border
crossings, during power take off
operations, or to provide comfort during
the work day. However, the study
provided only ‘‘rough estimates’’ of the
idle time and energy use for these
vehicles. The agencies are not able to
appropriately develop a baseline of
workday idling for day cabs and identify
agencies are proposing to continue the HD
Phase 1 AES override provisions included in 40
CFR 1037.660(b) for driver safety.
164 Gaines, L., A. Vyas, J. Anderson. Estimation of
Fuel Use by Idling Commercial Trucks. January
2006.
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the percent of this idling which could
be reduced through the use of AES. We
welcome comment and data on
quantifying the effectiveness of AES on
day cabs.
(v) Vehicle Speed Limiter Adoption
Rate
As adopted in Phase 1, we propose to
continue the approach where vehicle
speed limiters may be used as a
technology to meet the proposed
standard. In setting the proposed
standard, however, we assumed a zero
percent adoption rate of vehicle speed
limiters. Although we believe vehicle
speed limiters are a simple, easy to
implement, and inexpensive
technology, we want to leave the use of
vehicles speed limiters to the truck
purchaser. Since truck fleets purchase
tractors today with owner-set vehicle
speed limiters, we considered not
including VSLs in our compliance
model. However, we have concluded
that we should allow the use of VSLs
that cannot be overridden by the
operator as a means of compliance for
vehicle manufacturers that wish to offer
it and truck purchasers that wish to
purchase the technology. In doing so,
we are providing another means of
meeting that standard that can lower
compliance cost and provide a more
optimal vehicle solution for some truck
fleets or owners. For example, a local
beverage distributor may operate trucks
in a distribution network of primarily
local roads. Under those conditions,
aerodynamic fairings used to reduce
aerodynamic drag provide little benefit
due to the low vehicle speed while
adding additional mass to the vehicle. A
vehicle manufacturer could choose to
install a VSL set at 55 mph for this
vehicle at the request of the customer.
The resulting tractor would be
optimized for its intended application
and would be fully compliant with our
program all at a lower cost to the
ultimate tractor purchaser.165
165 Ibid.
The agencies note that because a VSL value can
be input into GEM, its benefits can be directly
assessed with the model and off cycle credit
applications therefore are not necessary even
though the proposed standard is not based on
performance of VSLs (i.e. VSL is an on-cycle
technology).
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As in Phase 1, we have chosen not to
base the proposed standards on
performance of VSLs because of
concerns about how to set a realistic
adoption rate that avoids unintended
adverse impacts. Although we expect
there would be some use of VSL,
currently it is used when the fleet
involved decides it is feasible and
practicable and increases the overall
efficiency of the freight system for that
fleet operator. To date, the compliance
data provided by manufacturers indicate
that none of the tractor configurations
include a tamper-proof VSL setting less
than 65 mph. At this point the agencies
are not in a position to determine in
how many additional situations use of
a VSL would result in similar benefits
to overall efficiency or how many
customers would be willing to accept a
tamper-proof VSL setting. As discussed
in Section III.E.2.f below, we welcome
comment on suggestions to modify the
tamper-proof requirement while
maintaining assurance that the speed
limiter is used in-use throughout the life
of the vehicle. We are not able at this
time to quantify the potential loss in
utility due to the use of VSLs, but we
welcome comment on whether the use
of a VSL would require a fleet to deploy
additional tractors. Absent this
information, we cannot make a
determination regarding the
reasonableness of setting a standard
based on a particular VSL level.
Therefore, the agencies are not
premising the proposed standards on
use of VSL, and instead would continue
to rely on the industry to select VSL
when circumstances are appropriate for
its use. The agencies have not included
either the cost or benefit due to VSLs in
analysis of the proposed program’s costs
and benefits, therefore it remains a
significant flexibility for manufacturers
to choose.
(vi) Summary of the Adoption Rates
Used To Determine the Proposed
Standards
Table III–8 through Table III–10
provide the adoption rates of each
technology broken down by weight
class, cab configuration, and roof height.
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Federal Register / Vol. 80, No. 133 / Monday, July 13, 2015 / Proposed Rules
TABLE III–8—TECHNOLOGY ADOPTION RATES FOR CLASS 7 AND 8 TRACTORS FOR DETERMINING THE PROPOSED 2021
MY STANDARDS
Class 7
Class 8
Day cab
Low roof
%
Mid roof
%
Day Cab
High roof
%
Low roof
%
Mid roof
%
Sleeper Cab
High roof
%
Low roof
%
Mid roof
%
High roof
%
100
100
100
100
100
0
75
25
0
N/A
N/A
N/A
0
75
25
0
N/A
N/A
N/A
0
0
40
35
20
5
0
0
75
25
0
N/A
N/A
N/A
0
75
25
0
N/A
N/A
N/A
0
0
40
35
20
5
0
5
60
25
10
5
60
25
10
5
60
25
10
5
60
25
10
5
60
25
10
5
60
25
10
5
60
25
10
5
60
25
10
5
60
25
10
5
60
25
10
5
60
25
10
5
60
25
10
N/A
N/A
80
80
80
45
40
10
5
45
40
10
5
45
40
10
5
45
40
10
5
45
40
10
5
20
10
20
20
20
20
20
10
20
20
10
20
20
20
20
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
2021 MY Engine Technology Package
100
100
100
100
Aerodynamics
Bin
Bin
Bin
Bin
Bin
Bin
Bin
I ..............................................
II .............................................
III ............................................
IV ...........................................
V ............................................
VI ...........................................
VII ..........................................
0
75
25
0
N/A
N/A
N/A
0
75
25
0
N/A
N/A
N/A
0
0
40
35
20
5
0
Steer Tires
Base
Level
Level
Level
.............................................
1 .........................................
2 .........................................
3 .........................................
5
60
25
10
5
60
25
10
5
60
25
10
Drive Tires
Base
Level
Level
Level
.............................................
1 .........................................
2 .........................................
3 .........................................
5
60
25
10
5
60
25
10
5
60
25
10
Extended Idle Reduction
APU ..............................................
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Transmission Type
Manual .........................................
AMT ..............................................
Auto ..............................................
Dual Clutch ..................................
45
40
10
5
45
40
10
5
45
40
10
5
45
40
10
5
Driveline
Axle Lubricant ..............................
6x2 or 4x2 Axle ............................
Downspeed ..................................
20
................
20
20
................
20
A/C ...............................................
Electric Access. ............................
10
10
20
20
................
10
20
20
Accessory Improvements
10
10
10
10
10
10
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20
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20
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20
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20
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Federal Register / Vol. 80, No. 133 / Monday, July 13, 2015 / Proposed Rules
TABLE III–9—TECHNOLOGY ADOPTION RATES FOR CLASS 7 AND 8 TRACTORS FOR DETERMINING THE PROPOSED 2024
MY STANDARDS
Class 7
Class 8
Day cab
Low roof
%
Mid roof
%
Day cab
High roof
%
Low roof
%
Mid roof
%
Sleeper cab
High roof
%
Low roof
%
Mid roof
%
High roof
%
100
100
100
100
100
0
60
38
2
N/A
N/A
N/A
0
60
38
2
N/A
N/A
N/A
0
0
30
30
25
13
2
0
60
38
2
N/A
N/A
N/A
0
60
38
2
N/A
N/A
N/A
0
0
30
30
25
13
2
5
50
30
15
5
50
30
15
5
50
30
15
5
50
30
15
5
50
30
15
5
50
30
15
5
50
30
15
5
50
30
15
5
50
30
15
5
50
30
15
5
50
30
15
5
50
30
15
N/A
N/A
90
90
90
20
50
20
10
20
50
20
10
20
50
20
10
20
50
20
10
20
50
20
10
20
50
20
10
40
20
40
50
40
20
40
50
40
60
40
50
40
20
40
50
40
20
40
50
40
60
40
50
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
40
40
40
40
40
40
40
40
40
40
2024 MY Engine Technology Package
100
100
100
100
Aerodynamics
Bin
Bin
Bin
Bin
Bin
Bin
Bin
I ..............................................
II .............................................
III ............................................
IV ...........................................
V ............................................
VI ...........................................
VII ..........................................
0
60
38
2
N/A
N/A
N/A
0
60
38
2
N/A
N/A
N/A
0
0
30
30
25
13
2
Steer Tires
Base
Level
Level
Level
.............................................
1 .........................................
2 .........................................
3 .........................................
5
50
30
15
5
50
30
15
5
50
30
15
Drive Tires
Base
Level
Level
Level
.............................................
1 .........................................
2 .........................................
3 .........................................
5
50
30
15
5
50
30
15
5
50
30
15
Extended Idle Reduction
APU ..............................................
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Transmission Type
Manual .........................................
AMT ..............................................
Auto ..............................................
Dual Clutch ..................................
20
50
20
10
20
50
20
10
20
50
20
10
Driveline
Axle Lubricant ..............................
6x2 or 4x2 Axle ............................
Downspeed ..................................
Direct Drive ..................................
40
................
40
50
40
................
40
50
40
................
40
50
Accessory Improvements
A/C ...............................................
Electric Access. ............................
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
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40
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40
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40
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40
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TABLE III–10—TECHNOLOGY ADOPTION RATES FOR CLASS 7 AND 8 TRACTORS FOR DETERMINING THE PROPOSED 2027
MY STANDARDS
Class 7
Class 8
Day cab
Low roof
%
Mid roof
%
Day cab
High roof
%
Low roof
%
Mid roof
%
Sleeper cab
High roof
%
Low roof
%
Mid roof
%
High roof
%
100
100
100
100
100
0
50
40
10
N/A
N/A
N/A
0
50
40
10
N/A
N/A
N/A
0
0
20
20
35
20
5
0
50
40
10
N/A
N/A
N/A
0
50
40
10
N/A
N/A
N/A
0
0
20
20
35
20
5
5
20
50
25
5
20
50
25
5
20
50
25
5
20
50
25
5
20
50
25
5
20
50
25
5
20
50
25
5
20
50
25
5
20
50
25
5
20
50
25
5
20
50
25
5
20
50
25
N/A
N/A
90
90
90
10
50
30
10
10
50
30
10
10
50
30
10
10
50
30
10
10
50
30
10
10
50
30
10
40
20
60
50
40
20
60
50
40
60
60
50
40
20
60
50
40
20
60
50
40
60
60
50
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
40
40
40
40
40
40
40
40
40
40
2027 MY Engine Technology Package
100
100
100
100
Aerodynamics
Bin
Bin
Bin
Bin
Bin
Bin
Bin
I ..............................................
II .............................................
III ............................................
IV ...........................................
V ............................................
VI ...........................................
VII ..........................................
0
50
40
10
N/A
N/A
N/A
0
50
40
10
N/A
N/A
N/A
0
0
20
20
35
20
5
Steer Tires
Base
Level
Level
Level
.............................................
1 .........................................
2 .........................................
3 .........................................
5
20
50
25
5
20
50
25
5
20
50
25
Drive Tires
Base
Level
Level
Level
.............................................
1 .........................................
2 .........................................
3 .........................................
5
20
50
25
5
20
50
25
5
20
50
25
Extended Idle Reduction
APU ..............................................
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Transmission Type
Manual .........................................
AMT ..............................................
Auto ..............................................
Dual Clutch ..................................
10
50
30
10
10
50
30
10
10
50
30
10
Driveline
Axle Lubricant ..............................
6x2 Axle .......................................
Downspeed ..................................
Direct Drive ..................................
40
................
60
50
40
................
60
50
40
................
60
50
Accessory Improvements
A/C ...............................................
Electric Access. ............................
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
Other Technologies
ebenthall on DSK3VPTVN1PROD with MISCELLANEOUS
Predictive Cruise Control .............
Automated Tire Inflation System ..
40
40
(d) Derivation of the Proposed Tractor
Standards
The agencies used the technology
effectiveness inputs and technology
adoption rates to develop GEM inputs to
derive the proposed HD Phase 2 fuel
consumption and CO2 emissions
standards for each subcategory of Class
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40
40
40
40
40
40
7 and 8 combination tractors. Note that
we have analyzed one technology
pathway for each proposed level of
stringency, but manufacturers would be
free to use any combination of
technology to meet the standards, and
with the flexibility of averaging, banking
and trading, to meet the standard on
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average. The agencies derived a scenario
tractor for each subcategory by
weighting the individual GEM input
parameters included in Table III–7 with
the adoption rates in Table III–8 through
Table III–10. For example, the proposed
CdA value for a 2021MY Class 8 Sleeper
Cab High Roof scenario case was
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derived as 40 percent times 6.3 plus 35
percent times 5.6 plus 20 percent times
5.1 plus 5 percent times 4.7, which is
equal to a CdA of 5.74 m2. Similar
calculations were made for tire rolling
resistance, transmission types, idle
reduction, and other technologies. To
account for the proposed engine
standards and engine technologies, the
agencies assumed a compliant engine
fuel map in GEM.166 The agencies then
ran GEM with a single set of vehicle
inputs, as shown in Table III–11, to
derive the proposed standards for each
subcategory. Additional detail is
provided in the draft RIA Chapter 2.
TABLE III–11—GEM INPUTS FOR THE PROPOSED 2021MY CLASS 7 AND 8 TRACTOR STANDARD SETTING
Class 7
Class 8
Day cab
Low roof
Mid roof
Day cab
High roof
Low roof
Mid roof
Sleeper cab
High roof
Low roof
Mid roof
High roof
2021MY 15L
Engine 455
HP
2021MY 15L
Engine 455
HP
2021MY 15L
Engine 455
HP
2021MY 15L
Engine 455
HP
4.68
6.08
5.74
6.2
6.2
6.2
6.6
6.6
6.6
2.5%
2.5%
2.5%
0.3%
0.5%
Engine
2021MY 11L
Engine 350
HP
2021MY 11L
Engine 350
HP
2021MY 11L
Engine 350
HP
2021MY 15L
Engine 455
HP
2021MY 15L
Engine 455
HP
Aerodynamics (CdA in m2)
4.68
6.08
5.94
4.68
6.08
5.94
Steer Tires (CRR in kg/metric ton)
6.2
6.2
6.2
6.2
6.2
6.2
Drive Tires (CRR in kg/metric ton)
6.6
6.6
6.6
6.6
6.6
6.6
Extended Idle Reduction Weighted Effectiveness
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Transmission = 10 speed Automated Manual Transmission
Gear Ratios = 12.8, 9.25, 6.76, 4.90, 3.58, 2.61, 1.89, 1.38, 1.00, 0.73
Drive axle Ratio = 3.55
6x2 Axle Weighted Effectiveness
N/A
N/A
N/A
0.3%
0.3%
0.5%
0.3%
Low Friction Axle Lubrication = 0.1%
Transmission benefit = 1.1%
Predictive Cruise Control = 0.4%
Accessory Improvements = 0.1%
Air Conditioner Efficiency Improvements = 0.1%
Automatic Tire Inflation Systems = 0.2%
ebenthall on DSK3VPTVN1PROD with MISCELLANEOUS
Weight Reduction = 0 lbs
166 See Section II.D above explaining the
derivation of the proposed engine standards.
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TABLE III–12—GEM INPUTS FOR THE PROPOSED 2024MY CLASS 7 AND 8 TRACTOR STANDARD SETTING
Class 7
Class 8
Day cab
Low roof
Mid roof
Day cab
High roof
Low roof
Mid roof
Sleeper cab
High roof
Low roof
Mid roof
High roof
2024MY 15L
Engine 455
HP
2024MY 15L
Engine 455
HP
2024MY 15L
Engine 455
HP
2024MY 15L
Engine 455
HP
4.59
5.99
5.54
Engine
2024MY 11L
Engine 350
HP
2024MY 11L
Engine 350
HP
2024MY 11L
Engine 350
HP
2024MY 15L
Engine 455
HP
2024MY 15L
Engine 455
HP
Aerodynamics (CdA in m2)
4.59
5.99
5.74
4.59
5.99
5.74
Steer Tires (CRR in kg/metric ton)
5.9
5.9
5.9
5.9
5.9
5.9
Drive Tires (CRR in kg/metric ton)
5.9
5.9
5.9
6.2
6.2
6.2
6.2
6.2
6.2
6.2
3%
3%
3%
0.5%
1.5%
6.2
6.2
Extended Idle Reduction Weighted Effectiveness
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Transmission = 10 speed Automated Manual Transmission
Gear Ratios = 12.8, 9.25, 6.76, 4.90, 3.58, 2.61, 1.89, 1.38, 1.00, 0.73
Drive axle Ratio = 3.36
6x2 Axle Weighted Effectiveness
N/A
N/A
N/A
0.5%
0.5%
1.5%
0.5%
Low Friction Axle Lubrication = 0.2%
Transmission benefit = 1.6%
Predictive Cruise Control = 0.8%
Accessory Improvements = 0.2%
Air Conditioner Efficiency Improvements = 0.1%
Automatic Tire Inflation Systems = 0.4%
Weight Reduction = 0 lbs
Direct Drive Weighted Efficiency = 1% for sleeper cabs; 0.8% for day cabs
TABLE III–13—GEM INPUTS FOR THE PROPOSED 2027MY CLASS 7 AND 8 TRACTOR STANDARD SETTING
Class 7
Class 8
Day cab
Low roof
Mid roof
Day cab
High roof
Low roof
Mid roof
Sleeper cab
High roof
Low roof
Mid roof
High roof
2027MY 15L
Engine 455
HP
2027MY 15L
Engine 455
HP
2027MY 15L
Engine 455
HP
2027MY 15L
Engine 455
HP
4.52
5.92
5.32
5.6
5.6
5.6
ebenthall on DSK3VPTVN1PROD with MISCELLANEOUS
Engine
2027MY 11L
Engine 350
HP
2027MY 11L
Engine 350
HP
2027MY 11L
Engine 350
HP
2027MY 15L
Engine 455
HP
2027MY 15L
Engine 455
HP
Aerodynamics (CdA in m2)
4.52
5.92
5.52
4.52
5.92
5.52
Steer Tires (CRR in kg/metric ton)
5.6
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TABLE III–13—GEM INPUTS FOR THE PROPOSED 2027MY CLASS 7 AND 8 TRACTOR STANDARD SETTING—Continued
Class 7
Class 8
Day cab
Low roof
Mid roof
Day cab
High roof
Low roof
Sleeper cab
Mid roof
High roof
Low roof
Mid roof
High roof
5.9
5.9
5.9
3%
3%
3%
0.5%
1.5%
Drive Tires (CRR in kg/metric ton)
5.9
5.9
5.9
5.9
5.9
5.9
Extended Idle Reduction Weighted Effectiveness
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Transmission = 10 speed Automated Manual Transmission
Gear Ratios = 12.8, 9.25, 6.76, 4.90, 3.58, 2.61, 1.89, 1.38, 1.00, 0.73
Drive axle Ratio = 3.2
6x2 Axle Weighted Effectiveness
N/A
N/A
N/A
0.5%
0.5%
1.5%
0.5%
Low Friction Axle Lubrication = 0.2%
Transmission benefit = 1.8%
Predictive Cruise Control = 0.8%
Accessory Improvements = 0.3%
Air Conditioner Efficiency Improvements = 0.2%
Automatic Tire Inflation Systems = 0.4%
Weight Reduction = 0 lbs
Direct Drive Weighted Efficiency = 1% for sleeper cabs; 0.8% for day cabs
The proposed level of the 2027 model
year standards, in addition to the phasein standards in model years 2021 and
2024 for each subcategory is included in
Table III–14.
TABLE III–14—PROPOSED 2021, 2024, AND 2027 MODEL YEAR TRACTOR STANDARDS
Day cab
Class 7
Sleeper Cab
Class 8
Class 8
2021 Model Year CO2 Grams per Ton-Mile
Low Roof ......................................................................................................................................
Mid Roof ......................................................................................................................................
High Roof .....................................................................................................................................
97
107
109
78
84
86
70
78
77
9.5285
10.5108
10.7073
7.6621
8.2515
8.4479
6.8762
7.6621
7.5639
90
100
101
72
78
79
64
71
70
8.8409
9.8232
9.9214
7.0727
7.6621
7.7603
6.2868
6.9745
6.8762
2021 Model Year Gallons of Fuel per 1,000 Ton-Mile
ebenthall on DSK3VPTVN1PROD with MISCELLANEOUS
Low Roof ......................................................................................................................................
Mid Roof ......................................................................................................................................
High Roof .....................................................................................................................................
2024 Model Year CO2 Grams per Ton-Mile
Low Roof ......................................................................................................................................
Mid Roof ......................................................................................................................................
High Roof .....................................................................................................................................
2024 Model Year and Later Gallons of Fuel per 1,000 Ton-Mile
Low Roof ......................................................................................................................................
Mid Roof ......................................................................................................................................
High Roof .....................................................................................................................................
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TABLE III–14—PROPOSED 2021, 2024, AND 2027 MODEL YEAR TRACTOR STANDARDS—Continued
Day cab
Class 7
Sleeper Cab
Class 8
Class 8
2027 Model Year CO2 Grams per Ton-Mile
Low Roof ......................................................................................................................................
Mid Roof ......................................................................................................................................
High Roof .....................................................................................................................................
87
96
96
70
76
76
62
69
67
8.5462
9.4303
9.4303
6.8762
7.4656
7.4656
6.0904
6.7780
6.5815
2027 Model Year and Later Gallons of Fuel per 1,000 Ton-Mile
Low Roof ......................................................................................................................................
Mid Roof ......................................................................................................................................
High Roof .....................................................................................................................................
A summary of the draft technology
package costs is included in Table III–
15 through Table III–17 for MYs 2021,
2024, and 2027, respectively, with
additional details available in the draft
RIA Chapter 2.12. We welcome
comments on the technology costs.
TABLE III–15—CLASS 7 AND 8 TRACTOR TECHNOLOGY INCREMENTAL COSTS IN THE 2021 MODEL YEAR a b PREFERRED
ALTERNATIVE VS. THE LESS DYNAMIC BASELINE
[2012$ per vehicle]
Class 7
Class 8
Day cab
Low/mid
roof
Day cab
High roof
Low/mid
roof
Sleeper cab
High roof
Low roof
Mid roof
High roof
Engine c ................................................................................
Aerodynamics ......................................................................
Tires .....................................................................................
Tire inflation system .............................................................
Transmission ........................................................................
Axle & axle lubes .................................................................
Idle reduction with APU .......................................................
Air conditioning ....................................................................
Other vehicle technologies ..................................................
$314
687
49
180
3,969
50
0
45
174
$314
511
9
180
3,969
50
0
45
174
$314
687
81
180
3,969
70
0
45
174
$314
511
15
180
3,969
90
0
45
174
$314
656
59
180
3,969
70
2,449
45
174
$314
656
59
180
3,969
70
2,449
45
174
$314
535
15
180
3,969
90
2,449
45
174
Total ..............................................................................
5,468
5,252
5,520
5,298
7,916
7,916
7,771
Notes:
a Costs shown are for the 2021 model year and are incremental to the costs of a tractor meeting the Phase 1 standards. These costs include
indirect costs via markups along with learning impacts. For a description of the markups and learning impacts considered in this analysis and
how it impacts technology costs for other years, refer to Chapter 2 of the draft RIA (see draft RIA 2.12).
b Note that values in this table include adoption rates. Therefore, the technology costs shown reflect the average cost expected for each of the
indicated tractor classes. To see the actual estimated technology costs exclusive of adoption rates, refer to Chapter 2 of the draft RIA (see draft
RIA 2.12 in particular).
c Engine costs are for a heavy HD diesel engine meant for a combination tractor. The engine costs in this table are equal to the engine costs
associated with the separate engine standard because both include the same set of engine technologies (see Section II.D.2.d.i).
TABLE III–16—CLASS 7 AND 8 TRACTOR TECHNOLOGY INCREMENTAL COSTS IN THE 2024 MODEL YEAR a b PREFERRED
ALTERNATIVE VS. THE LESS DYNAMIC BASELINE
[2012$ per vehicle]
Class 7
Class 8
ebenthall on DSK3VPTVN1PROD with MISCELLANEOUS
Day cab
Low/mid
roof
Engine c ................................................................................
Aerodynamics ......................................................................
Tires .....................................................................................
Tire inflation system .............................................................
Transmission ........................................................................
Axle & axle lubes .................................................................
Idle reduction with APU .......................................................
Air conditioning ....................................................................
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$904
744
47
330
5,883
92
0
82
Fmt 4701
Day cab
High roof
$904
684
11
330
5,883
92
0
82
Sfmt 4702
Low/mid
roof
$904
744
78
330
5,883
128
0
82
Sleeper cab
High roof
Low roof
$904
684
18
330
5,883
200
0
82
$904
712
58
330
5,883
128
2,687
82
E:\FR\FM\13JYP2.SGM
13JYP2
Mid roof
$904
712
58
330
5,883
128
2,687
82
High roof
$904
723
18
330
5,883
200
2,687
82
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TABLE III–16—CLASS 7 AND 8 TRACTOR TECHNOLOGY INCREMENTAL COSTS IN THE 2024 MODEL YEAR a b PREFERRED
ALTERNATIVE VS. THE LESS DYNAMIC BASELINE—Continued
[2012$ per vehicle]
Class 7
Class 8
Day cab
Low/mid
roof
Day cab
High roof
Low/mid
roof
Sleeper cab
High roof
Low roof
Mid roof
High roof
Other vehicle technologies ..................................................
318
318
318
318
318
318
318
Total ..............................................................................
8,400
8,304
8,467
8,419
11,102
11,102
11,145
Notes:
a Costs shown are for the 2024 model year and are incremental to the costs of a tractor meeting the Phase 1 standards. These costs include
indirect costs via markups along with learning impacts. For a description of the markups and learning impacts considered in this analysis and
how it impacts technology costs for other years, refer to Chapter 2 of the draft RIA (see draft RIA 2.12).
b Note that values in this table include adoption rates. Therefore, the technology costs shown reflect the average cost expected for each of the
indicated tractor classes. To see the actual estimated technology costs exclusive of adoption rates, refer to Chapter 2 of the draft RIA (see draft
RIA 2.12).
c Engine costs are for a heavy HD diesel engine meant for a combination tractor. The engine costs in this table are equal to the engine costs
associated with the separate engine standard because both include the same set of engine technologies (see Section II.D.2.d.i).
TABLE III–17—CLASS 7 AND 8 TRACTOR TECHNOLOGY INCREMENTAL COSTS IN THE 2027 MODEL YEAR a b PREFERRED
ALTERNATIVE VS. THE LESS DYNAMIC BASELINE
[2012$ per vehicle]
Class 7
Class 8
Day cab
Low/mid
roof
Day cab
High roof
Low/mid
roof
Sleeper cab
High roof
Low roof
Mid roof
High roof
Engine c ................................................................................
Aerodynamics ......................................................................
Tires .....................................................................................
Tire inflation system .............................................................
Transmission ........................................................................
Axle & axle lubes .................................................................
Idle reduction with APU .......................................................
Air conditioning ....................................................................
Other vehicle technologies ..................................................
$1,698
771
45
314
6,797
97
0
117
302
$1,698
765
10
314
6,797
97
0
117
302
$1,698
771
75
314
6,797
131
0
117
302
$1,698
765
17
314
6,797
200
0
117
302
$1,698
733
56
314
6,797
131
2,596
117
302
$1,698
733
56
314
6,797
131
2,596
117
302
$1,698
802
17
314
6,797
200
2,596
117
302
Total ..............................................................................
10,140
10,099
10,204
10,209
12,744
12,744
12,842
Notes:
a Costs shown are for the 2027 model year and are incremental to the costs of a tractor meeting the Phase 1 standards. These costs include
indirect costs via markups along with learning impacts. For a description of the markups and learning impacts considered in this analysis and
how it impacts technology costs for other years, refer to Chapter 2 of the draft RIA (see draft RIA 2.12).
b Note that values in this table include adoption rates. Therefore, the technology costs shown reflect the average cost expected for each of the
indicated tractor classes. To see the actual estimated technology costs exclusive of adoption rates, refer to Chapter 2 of the draft RIA (see draft
RIA 2.12 in particular).
c Engine costs are for a heavy HD diesel engine meant for a combination tractor. The engine costs in this table are equal to the engine costs
associated with the separate engine standard because both include the same set of engine technologies (see Section II.D.2.d.i).
ebenthall on DSK3VPTVN1PROD with MISCELLANEOUS
(i) Proposed Heavy-Haul Tractor
Standards
For Phase 2, the agencies propose to
add a tenth subcategory to the tractor
category for heavy-haul tractors. The
agencies recognize the need for
manufacturers to build these types of
vehicles for specific applications and
believe the appropriate way to prevent
penalizing these vehicles is to set
separate standards recognizing a heavyhaul vehicle’s unique needs, such as
requiring a higher horsepower engine or
different transmissions. The agencies
are proposing this change in Phase 2
because unlike in Phase 1 the engine,
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transmission, and drivetrain
technologies are included in the
technology packages used to determine
the stringency of the proposed tractor
standards and are included as
manufacturer inputs in GEM. This
means that the agencies can adopt a
standard reflecting individualized
performance of these technologies in
particular applications, in this case,
heavy-haul tractors, and further, have a
means of reliably assessing
individualized performance of these
technology at certification.
The typical tractor is designed with a
Gross Combined Weight Rating (GCWR)
of approximately 80,000 lbs due to the
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effective weight limit on the federal
highway system, except in states with
preexisting higher weight limits. The
agencies propose to consider tractors
with a GCWR over 120,000 lbs as heavyhaul tractors. Based on comments
received during the development of HD
Phase 1 (76 FR 57136–57138) and
because we are not proposing a sales
limit for heavy-haul like we have for the
vocational tractors, the agencies also
believe it would be appropriate to
further define the heavy-haul vehicle
characteristics to differentiate these
vehicles from the vehicles in the other
nine tractor subcategories. The two
additional requirements would include
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a total gear reduction greater than or
equal to 57:1 and a frame Resisting
Bending Moment (RBM) greater than or
equal to 2,000,000 in-lbs per rail or rail
and liner combination. Heavy-haul
tractors typically require the large gear
reduction to provide the torque
necessary to start the vehicle moving.
These vehicles also typically require
frame rails with extra strength to ensure
the ability to haul heavy loads. We
welcome comment on the proposed
heavy-haul tractor specifications,
including whether Gross Vehicle Weight
Rating (GVWR) or Gross Axle Weight
Rating (GAWR) would be a more
appropriate metric to differentiate
between a heavy-haul tractor and a
typical tractor.
The agencies propose that heavy-haul
tractors demonstrate compliance with
the proposed standards using the day
cab drive cycle weightings of 19 percent
transient cycle, 17 percent 55 mph
cycle, and 64 percent 65 mph cycle. We
also propose that GEM simulates the
heavy-haul tractors with a payload of 43
tons and a total tractor, trailer, and
payload weight of 118,500 lbs. In
addition, we propose that the engines
installed in heavy-haul tractors meet the
proposed tractor engine standards
included in 40 CFR 1036.108. We
welcome comments on these proposed
specifications.
The agencies recognize that certain
technologies used to determine the
stringency of the proposed Phase 2
tractor standards are less applicable to
heavy-haul tractors. Heavy-haul tractors
are not typically used in the same
manner as long-haul tractors with
extended highway driving, and
therefore would experience less benefit
from aerodynamics. Aerodynamic
technologies are very effective at
reducing the fuel consumption and GHG
emissions of tractors, but only when
traveling at highway speeds. At lower
speeds, the aerodynamic technologies
may have a detrimental impact due to
the potential of added weight. The
agencies therefore are not considering
the use of aerodynamic technologies in
the development of the proposed Phase
2 heavy-haul tractor standards.
Moreover, because aerodynamics would
not play a role in the heavy-haul
standards, the agencies propose to
combine all of the heavy-haul tractor
cab configurations (day and sleeper) and
roof heights (low, mid, and high) into a
single heavy-haul tractor subcategory.167
We welcome comment on this
approach.
Certain powertrain and drivetrain
components are also impacted during
the design of a heavy-haul tractor,
including the transmission, axles, and
the engine. Heavy-haul tractors typically
require transmissions with 13 or 18
speeds to provide the ratio spread to
ensure that the tractor is able to start
pulling the load from a stop. Downsped
powertrains are typically not an option
for heavy-haul operations because these
vehicles require more torque to move
the vehicle because of the heavier load.
Finally, due to the loading requirements
of the vehicle, it is not likely that a 6x2
axle configuration can be used in heavyhaul applications.
The agencies used the following
heavy-haul tractor inputs for developing
the proposed 2021, 2024, and 2027 MY
standards, as shown in Table III–18 and
Table III–19.
TABLE III–18—APPLICATION RATES FOR PROPOSED HEAVY-HAUL TRACTOR STANDARDS
Heavy-Haul Tractor Application Rates
2021MY
2027MY
2021 MY
15L Engine
with 600 HP
(%)
Engine
2024MY
2024 MY
15L Engine
with 600 HP
(%)
2027 MY
15L Engine
with 600 HP
(%)
5
60
25
10
5
50
30
15
5
20
50
25
5
60
25
10
5
50
30
15
5
20
50
25
40
10
5
50
20
10
50
30
10
0
20
20
10
10
20
0
40
40
20
20
40
0
40
40
30
30
40
Aerodynamics—0%
Steer Tires
Phase 1 Baseline .....................................................................................................................................
Level I ......................................................................................................................................................
Level 2 .....................................................................................................................................................
Level 3 .....................................................................................................................................................
Drive Tires
Phase 1 Baseline .....................................................................................................................................
Level I ......................................................................................................................................................
Level 2 .....................................................................................................................................................
Level 3 .....................................................................................................................................................
Transmission
ebenthall on DSK3VPTVN1PROD with MISCELLANEOUS
AMT .........................................................................................................................................................
Automatic .................................................................................................................................................
DCT ..........................................................................................................................................................
Other Technologies
6x2 Axle ...................................................................................................................................................
Low Friction Axle Lubrication ..................................................................................................................
Predictive Cruise Control .........................................................................................................................
Accessory Improvements ........................................................................................................................
Air Conditioner Efficiency Improvements ................................................................................................
Automatic Tire Inflation Systems .............................................................................................................
167 Since aerodynamic improvements are not part
of the technology package, the agencies likewise are
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not proposing any bin structure for the heavy-haul
tractor subcategory.
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TABLE III–18—APPLICATION RATES FOR PROPOSED HEAVY-HAUL TRACTOR STANDARDS—Continued
Heavy-Haul Tractor Application Rates
2021MY
2027MY
2021 MY
15L Engine
with 600 HP
(%)
Engine
2024MY
2024 MY
15L Engine
with 600 HP
(%)
2027 MY
15L Engine
with 600 HP
(%)
0
0
0
Weight Reduction ....................................................................................................................................
TABLE III–19—GEM INPUTS FOR PROPOSED 2021, 2024 AND 2027 MY HEAVY-HAUL TRACTOR STANDARDS
Heavy-haul tractor
Baseline
2021MY
2024MY
2027MY
Engine = 2017 MY 15L Engine
with 600 HP.
Engine = 2021 MY 15L Engine
with 600 HP.
Engine = 2024 MY 15L Engine
with 600 HP.
Engine = 2027 MY 15L Engine
with 600 HP
Aerodynamics (CdA in m2) = 5.00
Steer Tires (CRR in kg/metric ton)
= 7.0.
Drive Tires (CRR in kg/metric ton)
= 7.4.
Transmission = 13 speed Manual
Transmission, Gear Ratios =
12.29, 8.51, 6.05, 4.38, 3.20,
2.29, 1.95, 1.62, 1.38, 1.17,
1.00, 0.86, 0.73.
Drive axle Ratio = 3.55 ..................
N/A .................................................
N/A .................................................
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
.................................................
.................................................
.................................................
.................................................
N/A .................................................
N/A .................................................
Steer Tires (CRR in kg/metric ton)
= 6.2.
Drive Tires (CRR in kg/metric ton)
= 6.6.
Transmission = 13 speed Automated Manual Transmission,
Gear Ratios = 12.29, 8.51,
6.05, 4.38, 3.20, 2.29, 1.95,
1.62, 1.38, 1.17, 1.00, 0.86,
0.73.
Drive axle Ratio = 3.55 .................
6x2 Axle Weighted Effectiveness
= 0%.
Low Friction Axle Lubrication =
0.1%.
AMT benefit = 1.1% ......................
Predictive Cruise Control = 0.4%
Accessory Improvements = 0.1%
Air Conditioner Efficiency Improvements = 0.1%.
Automatic Tire Inflation Systems =
0.2%.
Weight Reduction = 0 lbs .............
The baseline 2017 MY heavy-haul
tractor would emit 57 grams of CO2 per
ton-mile and consume 5.6 gallons of
Steer Tires (CRR in kg/metric ton)
= 6.0.
Drive Tires (CRR in kg/metric ton)
= 6.4.
Transmission = 13 speed Automated Manual Transmission,
Gear Ratios = 12.29, 8.51,
6.05, 4.38, 3.20, 2.29, 1.95,
1.62, 1.38, 1.17, 1.00, 0.86,
0.73.
Drive axle Ratio = 3.55 .................
6x2 Axle Weighted Effectiveness
= 0%.
Low Friction Axle Lubrication =
0.2%.
AMT benefit = 1.8% ......................
Predictive Cruise Control = 0.8%
Accessory Improvements = 0.2%
Air Conditioner Efficiency Improvements = 0.1%.
Automatic Tire Inflation Systems =
0.4%.
Weight Reduction = 0 lbs .............
fuel per 1,000 ton-mile. The agencies
propose the heavy-haul standards
shown in Table III–20. We welcome
Steer Tires (CRR in kg/metric ton)
= 5.8.
Drive Tires (CRR in kg/metric ton)
= 6.2.
Transmission = 13 speed Automated Manual Transmission,
Gear Ratios = 12.29, 8.51,
6.05, 4.38, 3.20, 2.29, 1.95,
1.62, 1.38, 1.17, 1.00, 0.86,
0.73.
Drive axle Ratio = 3.55.
6x2 Axle Weighted Effectiveness
= 0%.
Low Friction Axle Lubrication =
0.2%.
AMT benefit = 1.8%.
Predictive Cruise Control = 0.8%.
Accessory Improvements = 0.3%.
Air Conditioner Efficiency Improvements = 0.2%.
Automatic Tire Inflation Systems =
0.4%.
Weight Reduction = 0 lbs.
comment on the heavy-haul tractor
technology path and standards proposed
by the agencies.
TABLE III–20—PROPOSED HEAVY-HAUL TRACTOR STANDARDS
Heavy-haul tractor
2021 MY
ebenthall on DSK3VPTVN1PROD with MISCELLANEOUS
Grams of CO2 per Ton-Mile Standard .....................................................................................................
Gallons of Fuel per 1,000 Ton-Mile .........................................................................................................
The technology costs associated with
the proposed heavy-haul tractor
standards are shown below in Table III–
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5.3045
21. We welcome comment on the
technology costs.
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52
5.1081
2027 MY
51
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TABLE III–21—HEAVY-HAUL TRACTOR TECHNOLOGY INCREMENTAL COSTS IN THE 2021, 2024, AND 2027 MODEL YEAR a b
PREFERRED ALTERNATIVE VS. THE LESS DYNAMIC BASELINE
[2012$ per vehicle]
2021 MY
Engine c ....................................................................................................................................................
Tires .........................................................................................................................................................
Tire inflation system .................................................................................................................................
Transmission ............................................................................................................................................
Axle & axle lubes .....................................................................................................................................
Air conditioning ........................................................................................................................................
Other vehicle technologies ......................................................................................................................
Total ..................................................................................................................................................
$314
81
180
3,969
70
45
174
4,833
2024 MY
$904
78
330
5,883
128
82
318
7,723
2027 MY
$1,698
75
314
6,797
200
117
302
9,503
ebenthall on DSK3VPTVN1PROD with MISCELLANEOUS
Notes:
a Costs shown are for the specified model year and are incremental to the costs of a tractor meeting the phase 1 standards. These costs include indirect costs via markups along with learning impacts. For a description of the markups and learning impacts considered in this analysis
and how it impacts technology costs for other years, refer to Chapter 2 of the draft RIA (see draft RIA 2.12).
b Note that values in this table include adoption rates. Therefore, the technology costs shown reflect the average cost expected for each of the
indicated tractor classes. To see the actual estimated technology costs exclusive of adoption rates, refer to Chapter 2 of the draft RIA (see draft
RIA 2.12 in particular).
c Engine costs are for a heavy HD diesel engine meant for a combination tractor.
(e) Consistency of the Proposed Tractor
Standards With the Agencies’ Legal
Authority
The proposed HD Phase 2 standards
are based on adoption rates for
technologies that the agencies regard,
subject to consideration of public
comment, as the maximum feasible for
purposes of EISA Section 32902 (k) and
appropriate under CAA Section 202 (a)
for the reasons given in Section
III.D.2(b) through (d) above; see also
draft RIA Chapter 2.4. The agencies
believe these technologies can be
adopted at the estimated rates for these
standards within the lead time
provided, as discussed in draft RIA
Chapter 2. The 2021 and 2024 MY
standards are phase-in standards on the
path to the 2027 MY standards and were
developed using less aggressive
application rates and therefore have
lower technology package costs than the
2027 MY standards. Moreover, we
project the cost of these technologies
would be rapidly recovered by operators
due to the associated fuel savings, as
shown in the payback analysis included
in Section IX below. The cost per tractor
to meet the proposed 2027 MY
standards is projected to range between
$10,000 and $13,000 (much or all of this
would be mitigated by the fuel savings
during the first two years of ownership).
The agencies note that while the
projected costs are significantly greater
than the costs projected for Phase 1, we
still consider that cost to be reasonable,
especially given the relatively short
payback period. In this regard the
agencies note that the estimated
payback period for tractors of less than
two years 168 is itself shorter than the
estimated payback period for light duty
168 See
Draft RIA Chapter 7.1.3.
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trucks in the 2017–2025 light duty
greenhouse gas standards. That period
was slightly over three years, see 77 FR
62926–62927, which EPA found to be a
highly reasonable given the usual period
of ownership of light trucks is typically
five years.169 The same is true here.
Ownership of new tractors is
customarily four to six years, meaning
that the greenhouse gas and fuel
consumption technologies pay for
themselves early on and the purchaser
sees overall savings in succeeding
years—while still owning the vehicle.170
The agencies note further that the costs
for each subcategory are relatively
proportionate; that is, costs of any single
tractor subcategory are not
disproportionately higher (or lower)
than any other. Although the proposal is
technology-forcing (especially with
respect to aerodynamic and tire rolling
resistance improvements), the agencies
believe that manufacturers retain leeway
to develop alternative compliance paths,
increasing the likelihood of the
standards’ successful implementation.
The agencies also regard these
reductions as cost-effective, even
without considering payback period.
The agencies estimate the cost per
metric ton of CO2eq reduction without
considering fuel savings to be $20 in
2030, and we estimate the cost per
gallon of avoided fuel consumption to
be about $0.25 per gallon, which
169 Auto Remarketing. Length of Ownership
Returning to More Normal Levels; New
Registrations Continue Slow Climb. April 1, 2013.
Last accessed on February 26, 2015 at https://www.
autoremarketing.com/trends/length-ownershipreturning-more-normal-levels-new-registrationscontinue-slow-climb.
170 North American Council for Freight
Efficiency. Barriers to Increased Adoption of Fuel
Efficiency Technologies in Freight Trucking. July
2013. Page 24.
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compares favorably with the levels of
cost effectiveness the agencies found to
be reasonable for light duty trucks.171 172
See 77 FR 62922. The proposed phasein 2021 and 2024 MY standards are less
stringent and less costly than the
proposed 2027 MY standards. For these
reasons, and because the agencies have
carefully considered lead time, EPA
believes they are also reasonable under
Section 202(a) of the CAA. Given that
the agencies believe the proposed
standards are technically feasible, are
highly cost effective, and highly cost
effective when accounting for the fuel
savings, and have no apparent adverse
potential impacts (e.g., there are no
projected negative impacts on safety or
vehicle utility), the proposed standards
appear to represent a reasonable choice
under Section 202(a) of the CAA and the
maximum feasible under NHTSA’s EISA
authority at 49 U.S.C. 32902(k)(2).
Based on the information before the
agencies, we currently believe that
Alternative 3 would be maximum
feasible and reasonable for the tractor
segment for the model years in question.
The agencies believe Alternative 4 has
potential to be the maximum feasible
and reasonable alternative; however,
based on the evidence currently before
us, EPA and NHTSA have outstanding
questions regarding relative risks and
benefits of Alternative 4 due to the
timeframe envisioned by the alternative.
Alternative 3 is generally designed to
achieve the levels of fuel consumption
and GHG reduction that Alternative 4
would achieve, but with several years of
171 See
Draft RIA Chapter 7.1.4.
using a cost effectiveness metric that treats
fuel savings as a negative cost, net costs per ton of
GHG emissions reduced or per gallon of avoided
fuel consumption would be negative under the
proposed standards.
172 If
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additional lead-time—i.e., the
Alternative 3 standards would end up in
the same place as the Alternative 4
standards, but several years later,
meaning that manufacturers could, in
theory, apply new technology at a more
gradual pace and with greater flexibility.
However, Alternative 4 would provide
earlier GHG benefits compared to
Alternative 3.
(f) Alternative Tractor Standards
Considered
The agencies developed and
considered other alternative levels of
stringency for the Phase 2 program. The
results of the analysis of these
alternatives are discussed below in
Section X of the preamble. For tractors,
the agencies developed the following
alternatives as shown in Table III–22.
TABLE III–22—SUMMARY OF ALTERNATIVES CONSIDERED FOR THE PROPOSED RULEMAKING
ebenthall on DSK3VPTVN1PROD with MISCELLANEOUS
Alternative
Alternative
Alternative
Alternative
Alternative
1
2
3
4
5
........................................................
........................................................
(Proposed Alternative) ...................
........................................................
........................................................
When evaluating the alternatives, it is
necessary to evaluate the impact of a
proposed regulation in terms of CO2
emission reductions, fuel consumption
reductions, and technology costs.
However, it is also necessary to consider
other aspects, such as manufacturers’
research and development resources,
the impact on purchase price, and the
impact on purchasers. Manufacturers
are limited in their ability to develop
and implement new technologies due to
their human resources and budget
constraints. This has a direct impact on
the amount of lead time that is required
to meet any new standards. From the
owner/operator perspective, heavy-duty
vehicles are a capital investment for
firms and individuals so large increases
in the upfront cost could impact buying
patterns. Though the dollar value of the
lifetime fuel savings will far exceed the
upfront technology costs, purchasers
often discount future fuel savings for a
number of reasons. The purchaser often
has uncertainty in the amount of fuel
savings that can be expected for their
specific operation due to the diversity of
the heavy-duty tractor market. Although
a nationwide perspective that averages
out this uncertainty is appropriate for
rulemaking analysis, individual
operators must consider their
potentially narrow operation. In
addition, purchasers often put a
premium on reliability (because
downtime is costly in terms of towing,
repair, late deliveries, and lost revenue)
and may perceive any new technology
as a potential risk with respect to
reliability. Another factor that
purchasers consider is the impact of a
173 See
No action alternative
Less Stringent than the Proposed Alternative applying off-the-shelf technologies.
Proposed Alternative fully phased-in by 2027 MY.
Alternative that pulls ahead the proposed 2027 MY standards to 2024 MY.
Alternative based on very high market adoption of advanced technologies.
new technology on the resale market,
which can also be impacted by
uncertainty.
The agencies selected the proposed
standards over the more stringent
alternatives based on considering the
relevant statutory factors. In 2027, the
proposed standards achieve up to a 24
percent reduction in CO2 emissions and
fuel consumption compared to a Phase
1 tractor at a per vehicle cost of
approximately $13,000. Alternative 4
achieves the same percent reduction in
CO2 emissions and fuel consumption
compared to a Phase 1 tractor, but three
years earlier, at a per vehicle cost of
approximately $14,000. The alternative
standards are projected to result in more
emission and fuel consumption
reductions from the heavy-duty tractors
built in model years 2021 through
2026.173 We project the proposed
standards to be achievable within
known design cycles, and we believe
these standards would allow different
paths to compliance in addition to the
one we outline and cost here.
The agencies solicit comment on all of
these issues and again note the
possibility of adopting, in a final action,
standards that are more accelerated than
those proposed in Alternative 3. The
agencies are also assuming that both the
proposed standards and Alternative 4
could be accomplished with all changes
being made during manufacturers’
normal product design cycles. However,
we note that doing so would be more
challenging for Alternative 4 and may
require accelerated research and
development outside of design cycles
with attendant increased costs.
The agencies are especially interested
in seeking detailed comments on
Alternative 4. Therefore, we are
including the details of the Alternative
4 analysis below. The adoption rates
considered for the 2021 and 2024 MY
standards developed for Alternative 4
are shown below in Table III–23 and
Table III–24. The inputs to GEM used to
develop the Alternative 4 CO2 and fuel
consumption standards are shown
below in Table III–25 and Table III–26.
The standards associated with
Alternative 4 are shown below in Table
III–27. Commenters are encouraged to
address all aspects of feasibility
analysis, including costs, the likelihood
of developing the technology to achieve
sufficient relaibility within the
proposed lead time, and the extent to
which the market could utilize the
technology.
(g) Derivation of Alternative 4 Tractor
Standards
The adoption rates considered for the
2021 and 2024 MY standards developed
for Alternative 4 are shown below in
Table III–23 and Table III–24. The
inputs to GEM used to develop the
Alternative 4 CO2 and fuel consumption
standards are shown below in Table III–
25 and Table III–26. The standards
associated with Alternative 4 are shown
below in Table III–27. Commenters are
encouraged to address all aspects of
feasibility analysis, including costs, the
likelihood of developing the technology
to achieve sufficient relaibility within
the lead time.
Tables III–14 and III–27.
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TABLE III–23—ALTERNATIVE 4 ADOPTION RATES FOR 2021 MY
Class 7
Class 8
Day cab
Low roof
(%)
Mid roof
(%)
Day cab
High roof
(%)
Low roof
(%)
Mid roof
(%)
Sleeper cab
High roof
(%)
Low roof
(%)
Mid roof
(%)
High roof
(%)
Alternative 4 2021MY Engine Technology Package
..............
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
0
65
30
5
N/A
N/A
N/A
0
0
35
30
25
10
0
0
65
30
5
N/A
N/A
N/A
0
65
30
5
N/A
N/A
N/A
0
0
35
30
25
10
0
5
35
45
15
5
35
45
15
5
35
45
15
5
35
45
15
5
35
45
15
5
35
45
15
5
35
45
15
5
35
45
15
5
35
45
15
5
35
45
15
N/A
80
80
80
25
40
30
5
25
40
30
5
25
40
30
5
25
40
30
5
25
40
30
5
Aerodynamics
Bin
Bin
Bin
Bin
Bin
Bin
Bin
I ..........
II .........
III ........
IV .......
V ........
VI .......
VII ......
0
65
30
5
N/A
N/A
N/A
0
65
30
5
N/A
N/A
N/A
0
0
35
30
25
10
0
0
65
30
5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Steer Tires
Base
Level
Level
Level
.........
1 .....
2 .....
3 .....
5
35
45
15
5
35
45
15
5
35
45
15
5
35
45
15
Drive Tires
Base
Level
Level
Level
.........
1 .....
2 .....
3 .....
5
35
45
15
5
35
45
15
5
35
45
15
5
35
45
15
Extended Idle Reduction
APU ..........
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Transmission Type
Manual .....
AMT ..........
Auto ..........
Dual Clutch
25
40
30
5
25
40
30
5
25
40
30
5
25
40
30
5
Driveline
Axle Lubricant .......
6×2 Axle ...
Downspeed ............
Direct
Drive .....
20
....................
20
....................
20
....................
20
10
20
10
20
20
20
10
20
10
20
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
Accessory Improvements
ebenthall on DSK3VPTVN1PROD with MISCELLANEOUS
A/C ...........
Electric Access. .....
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
Other Technologies
Predictive
Cruise
Control ..
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
Automated
Tire Inflation
System ..
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
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TABLE III–24—ALTERNATIVE 4 ADOPTION RATES FOR 2024 MY
Class 7
Class 8
Day cab
Low roof
(%)
Mid roof
(%)
Day cab
High roof
(%)
Low roof
(%)
Mid roof
(%)
Sleeper cab
High roof
(%)
Low roof
(%)
Mid roof
(%)
High roof
(%)
Alternative 4 2024MY Engine Technology Package
..............
Bin
Bin
Bin
Bin
Bin
Bin
Bin
I ..........
II .........
III ........
IV .......
V ........
VI .......
VII ......
100
100
100
0
50
40
10
N/A
N/A
N/A
0
50
40
10
N/A
N/A
N/A
100
100
Aerodynamics
0
0
20
20
35
20
5
100
100
100
0
50
40
10
N/A
N/A
N/A
0
0
20
20
35
20
5
0
50
40
10
N/A
N/A
N/A
0
50
40
10
N/A
N/A
N/A
0
0
20
20
35
20
5
5
20
50
25
5
20
50
25
5
20
50
25
5
20
50
25
5
20
50
25
5
20
50
25
5
20
50
25
5
20
50
25
5
20
50
25
5
20
50
25
N/A
90
90
90
10
50
30
10
0
50
40
10
N/A
N/A
N/A
100
10
50
30
10
10
50
30
10
10
50
30
10
10
50
30
10
Steer Tires
Base
Level
Level
Level
.........
1 .....
2 .....
3 .....
5
20
50
25
5
20
50
25
5
20
50
25
5
20
50
25
Drive Tires
Base
Level
Level
Level
.........
1 .....
2 .....
3 .....
5
20
50
25
5
20
50
25
5
20
50
25
5
20
50
25
Extended Idle Reduction
APU ..........
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Transmission Type
Manual .....
AMT ..........
Auto ..........
Dual Clutch
10
50
30
10
10
50
30
10
10
50
30
10
10
50
30
10
Driveline
Axle Lubricant .......
6×2 Axle ...
Downspeed ............
Direct
Drive .....
40
....................
40
....................
40
....................
40
20
40
20
40
60
40
20
40
20
40
60
60
60
60
60
60
60
60
60
60
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
Accessory Improvements
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A/C ...........
Electric Access. .....
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
Other Technologies
Predictive
Cruise
Control ..
Automated
Tire Inflation
System ..
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40
40
40
40
40
40
40
40
40
40
40
40
40
40
40
40
40
40
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TABLE III–25—ALTERNATIVE 4 GEM INPUTS FOR 2021MY
Class 7
Class 8
Day cab
Low roof
Mid roof
Day cab
High roof
Low roof
Mid roof
Sleeper cab
High roof
Low roof
Mid roof
High roof
2021MY 15L
Engine 455
HP—2%
reduction
2021MY 15L
Engine 455
HP—2%
reduction
2021MY 15L
Engine 455
HP—2%
reduction
2021MY 15L
Engine 455
HP—2%
reduction
4.61
6.01
5.63
5.9
5.9
5.9
6.2
6.2
6.2
2.5%
2.5%
2.5%
0.3%
0.8%
Engine
2021MY 11L
Engine 350
HP—2% reduction
2021MY 11L
Engine 350
HP—2%
reduction
2021MY 11L
Engine 350
HP—2%
reduction
2021MY 15L
Engine 455
HP—2%
reduction
2021MY 15L
Engine 455
HP—2%
reduction
Aerodynamics (CdA in m2)
4.61
6.01
5.83
4.61
6.01
5.83
Steer Tires (CRR in kg/metric ton)
5.9
5.9
5.9
5.9
5.9
5.9
Drive Tires (CRR in kg/metric ton)
6.2
6.2
6.2
6.2
6.2
6.2
Extended Idle Reduction Weighted Effectiveness
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Transmission = 10 speed Automated Manual Transmission
Gear Ratios = 12.8, 9.25, 6.76, 4.90, 3.58, 2.61, 1.89, 1.38, 1.00, 0.73
Drive axle Ratio = 3.45
6x2 Axle Weighted Effectiveness
N/A
N/A
N/A
0.3%
0.3%
0.8%
0.3%
Low Friction Axle Lubrication = 0.1%
Transmission benefit = 1.5%
Predictive Cruise Control = 0.6%
Accessory Improvements = 0.2%
Air Conditioner Efficiency Improvements = 0.1%
Automatic Tire Inflation Systems = 0.3%
Weight Reduction = 0 lbs
Direct Drive Weighted Efficiency = 1% for sleeper cabs; 0.8% for day cabs
TABLE III–26—ALTERNATIVE 4 GEM INPUTS FOR 2024MY
Class 7
Class 8
Day cab
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Low roof
Mid roof
Day cab
High roof
Low roof
Mid roof
Sleeper cab
High roof
Low roof
Mid roof
High roof
2021MY 15L
Engine 455
HP—4%
reduction
2021MY 15L
Engine 455
HP—4%
reduction
2021MY 15L
Engine 455
HP—4%
reduction
2021MY 15L
Engine 455
HP—4%
reduction
4.52
5.92
5.32
Engine
2021MY 11L
Engine 350
HP—4% reduction
2021MY 11L
Engine 350
HP—4%
reduction
2021MY 11L
Engine 350
HP—4%
reduction
2021MY 15L
Engine 455
HP—4%
reduction
2021MY 15L
Engine 455
HP—4%
reduction
Aerodynamics (CdA in m2)
4.52
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TABLE III–26—ALTERNATIVE 4 GEM INPUTS FOR 2024MY—Continued
Class 7
Class 8
Day cab
Low roof
Day cab
Mid roof
High roof
Low roof
Sleeper cab
Mid roof
High roof
Low roof
Mid roof
High roof
5.6
5.6
5.6
5.9
5.9
5.9
3%
3%
3%
0.5%
1.5%
Steer Tires (CRR in kg/metric ton)
5.6
5.6
5.6
5.6
5.6
5.6
Drive Tires (CRR in kg/metric ton)
5.9
5.9
5.9
5.9
5.9
5.9
Extended Idle Reduction Weighted Effectiveness
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Transmission = 10 speed Automated Manual Transmission
Gear Ratios = 12.8, 9.25, 6.76, 4.90, 3.58, 2.61, 1.89, 1.38, 1.00, 0.73
Drive axle Ratio = 3.2
6x2 Axle Weighted Effectiveness
N/A
N/A
N/A
0.5%
0.5%
1.5%
0.5%
Low Friction Axle Lubrication = 0.2%
Transmission benefit = 1.8%
Predictive Cruise Control = 0.8%
Accessory Improvements = 0.3%
Air Conditioner Efficiency Improvements = 0.2%
Automatic Tire Inflation Systems = 0.4%
Weight Reduction = 0 lbs
Direct Drive Weighted Efficiency = 1% for sleeper cabs; 0.8% for day cabs
TABLE III–27—TRACTOR STANDARDS ASSOCIATED WITH ALTERNATIVE 4
Day cab
Class 7
Sleeper cab
Class 8
Class 8
2021 Model Year CO2 Grams per Ton-Mile
Low Roof ..................................................................................................................................................
Mid Roof ..................................................................................................................................................
High Roof .................................................................................................................................................
92
102
104
74
81
82
66
74
73
9.0373
10.0196
10.2161
7.2692
7.9568
8.0550
6.4833
7.2692
7.1709
87
96
96
70
76
76
62
69
67
8.5462
9.4303
9.4303
6.8762
7.4656
7.4656
6.0904
6.7780
6.5815
2021 Model Year Gallons of Fuel per 1,000 Ton-Mile
Low Roof ..................................................................................................................................................
Mid Roof ..................................................................................................................................................
High Roof .................................................................................................................................................
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2024 Model Year CO2 Grams per Ton-Mile
Low Roof ..................................................................................................................................................
Mid Roof ..................................................................................................................................................
High Roof .................................................................................................................................................
2024 Model Year and Later Gallons of Fuel per 1,000 Ton-Mile
Low Roof ..................................................................................................................................................
Mid Roof ..................................................................................................................................................
High Roof .................................................................................................................................................
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The technology costs of achieving the
reductions projected in Alternative 4 are
included below in Table III–28 and
Table III–29.
TABLE III–28–CLASS 7 AND 8 TRACTOR TECHNOLOGY INCREMENTAL COSTS IN THE 2021 MODEL YEAR ALTERNATIVE 4
VS. THE LESS DYNAMIC BASELINE A B
(2012$ per vehicle)
Class 7
Class 8
Day cab
Low/mid
roof
Day cab
High roof
Low/mid
roof
Sleeper cab
High roof
Low roof
Mid roof
High roof
Engine c ....................................................
Aerodynamics ..........................................
Tires .........................................................
Tire inflation system .................................
Transmission ............................................
Axle & axle lubes .....................................
Idle reduction with APU ...........................
Air conditioning ........................................
Other vehicle technologies ......................
$656
769
50
271
6,794
56
0
90
261
$656
632
11
271
6,794
56
0
90
261
$656
769
83
271
6,794
75
0
90
261
$656
632
18
271
6,794
95
0
90
261
$656
740
61
271
6,794
75
2,449
90
261
$656
740
61
271
6,794
75
2,449
90
261
$656
665
18
271
6,794
115
2,449
90
261
Total ..................................................
8,946
8,769
8,999
8,816
11,397
11,397
11,318
Notes:
a Costs shown are for the 2021 model year and are incremental to the costs of a tractor meeting the Phase 1 standards. These costs include
indirect costs via markups along with learning impacts. For a description of the markups and learning impacts considered in this analysis and
how it impacts technology costs for other years, refer to Chapter 2 of the draft RIA (see draft RIA 2.12).
b Note that values in this table include adoption rates. Therefore, the technology costs shown reflect the average cost expected for each of the
indicated tractor classes. To see the actual estimated technology costs exclusive of adoption rates, refer to Chapter 2 of the draft RIA (see draft
RIA 2.12 in particular).
c Engine costs are for a heavy HD diesel engine meant for a combination tractor. The engine costs in this table are equal to the engine costs
associated with the separate engine standard because both include the same set of engine technologies (see Section II.D.2.e).
TABLE III–29–CLASS 7 AND 8 TRACTOR TECHNOLOGY INCREMENTAL COSTS IN THE 2024 MODEL YEAR ALTERNATIVE 4
VS. THE LESS DYNAMIC BASELINE A B
(2012$ per vehicle)
Class 7
Class 8
Day cab
Low/mid
roof
Engine c
Day cab
High roof
Low/mid
roof
Sleeper cab
High roof
Low roof
Mid roof
High roof
$1,885
805
50
330
7,143
102
0
123
318
$1,885
935
14
330
7,143
102
0
123
318
$1,885
805
83
330
7,143
138
0
123
318
$1,885
935
23
330
7,143
210
0
123
318
$1,885
773
63
330
7,143
138
2,687
123
318
$1,885
773
63
330
7,143
138
2,687
123
318
$1,885
997
23
330
7,143
210
2,687
123
318
Total ..................................................
ebenthall on DSK3VPTVN1PROD with MISCELLANEOUS
....................................................
Aerodynamics ..........................................
Tires .........................................................
Tire inflation system .................................
Transmission ............................................
Axle & axle lubes .....................................
Idle reduction with APU ...........................
Air conditioning ........................................
Other vehicle technologies ......................
10,757
10,851
10,826
10,968
13,461
13,461
13,717
Notes:
a Costs shown are for the 2024 model year and are incremental to the costs of a tractor meeting the Phase 1 standards. These costs include
indirect costs via markups along with learning impacts. For a description of the markups and learning impacts considered in this analysis and
how it impacts technology costs for other years, refer to Chapter 2 of the draft RIA (see draft RIA 2.12).
b Note that values in this table include adoption rates. Therefore, the technology costs shown reflect the average cost expected for each of the
indicated tractor classes. To see the actual estimated technology costs exclusive of adoption rates, refer to Chapter 2 of the draft RIA (see draft
RIA 2.12 in particular).
c Engine costs are for a heavy HD diesel engine meant for a combination tractor. The engine costs in this table are equal to the engine costs
associated with the separate engine standard because both include the same set of engine technologies (see Section II.D.2.e).
E. Proposed Compliance Provisions for
Tractors
In HD Phase 1, the agencies
developed an entirely new program to
assess the CO2 emissions and fuel
consumption of tractors. The agencies
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propose to carry over many aspects of
the Phase 1 compliance approach, but
are proposing to enhance several aspects
of the compliance program. The sections
below highlight the key areas that are
the same and those that are different.
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(1) HD Phase 2 Compliance Provisions
That Remain the Same
The regulatory structure
considerations for Phase 2 are discussed
in more detail above in Section II. We
welcome comment on all aspects of the
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compliance program including where
we are not proposing any changes.
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(a) Application and Certification Process
For the Phase 2 proposed rule, the
agencies are proposing to keep many
aspects of the HD Phase 1 tractor
compliance program. For example, the
agencies propose to continue to use
GEM (as revised for Phase 2), in
coordination with additional
component testing by manufacturers to
determine the inputs, to determine
compliance with the proposed fuel
efficiency and CO2 standards. Another
aspect that we propose to carry over is
the overall compliance approach.
In Phase 1 and as proposed in Phase
2, the general compliance process in
terms of the pre-model year, during the
model year, and post model year
activities remain unchanged. The
manufacturers would continue to be
required to apply for certification
through a single source, EPA, with
limited sets of data and GEM results (see
40 CFR 1037.205). EPA would issue
certificates upon approval based on
information submitted through the
VERIFY database (see 40 CFR 1037.255).
In Phase 1, EPA and NHTSA jointly
review and approve innovative
technology requests, i.e. performance of
any technology whose performance is
not measured by the GEM simulation
tool and is not in widespread use in the
2010 MY. For Phase 2, the agencies are
proposing a similar process for allowing
credits for off-cycle technologies that are
not measured by the GEM simulation
tool (see Section I.B.v. for a more
detailed discussion of off-cycle
requests). During the model year, the
manufacturers would continue to
generate certification data and conduct
GEM runs on each of the vehicle
configurations it builds. After the model
year ends, the manufacturers would
submit end of year reports to EPA that
include the GEM results for all of the
configurations it builds, along with
credit/deficit balances if applicable (see
40 CFR 1037.250 and 1037.730). EPA
and NHTSA would jointly coordinate
on any enforcement action required.
(b) Compliance Requirements
The agencies are also proposing not to
change the following provisions:
• Useful life of tractors (40 CFR
1037.105(e) and 1037.106(e)) although
added for NHTSA in Phase 2 (40 CFR
535.5)
• Emission-related warranty
requirements (40 CFR 1037.120)
• Maintenance instructions, allowable
maintenance, and amending
maintenance instructions (40 CFR
1037.125 and 137.220)
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• Deterioration factors (40 CFR
1037.205(l) and 1037.241(c))
• Vehicle family, subfamily, and
configurations (40 CFR 1037.230)
(c) Drive Cycles and Weightings
In Phase 1, the agencies adopted three
drive cycles used in GEM to evaluate
the fuel consumption and CO2
emissions from various vehicle
configurations. One of the cycles is the
Transient mode of the California ARB
Heavy Heavy-Duty Truck 5 Mode cycle.
It is intended to broadly cover urban
driving. The other two cycles represent
highway driving at 55 mph and 65 mph.
The agencies propose to maintain the
existing drive cycles and weighting. For
sleeper cabs, the weightings would
remain 5 percent of the Transient cycle,
9 percent of the 55 mph cycle, and 86
percent of the 65 mph cycle. The day
cab results would be weighted based on
19 percent of the transient cycle, 17
percent of the 55 mph cycle, and 64
percent of the 65 mph cycle (see 40 CFR
1037.510(c)). One key difference in the
proposed drive cycles is the addition of
grade, discussed below in Section
III.E.2.
The 55 mph and 65 mph drive cycles
used in GEM assume constant speed
operation at nominal vehicle speeds
with downshifting occurring if road
incline causes a predetermined drop in
vehicle speed. In real-world vehicle
operation, traffic conditions and other
factors may cause periodic operation at
lower (e.g. creep) or variable vehicle
speeds. The agencies therefore request
comment on the need to include
segments of lower or variable speed
operation in the nominally 55 mph and
65 mph drive cycles used in GEM and
how this may or may not impact the
strategies manufacturers would develop.
We also request data from fleet
operators or others that may track
vehicle speed operation of heavy-duty
tractors.
(d) Empty Weight and Payload
The total weight of the tractor-trailer
combination is the sum of the tractor
curb weight, the trailer curb weight, and
the payload. The total weight of a
vehicle is important because it in part
determines the impact of technologies,
such as rolling resistance, on GHG
emissions and fuel consumption. In
Phase 2, we are proposing to carry over
the total weight of the tractor-trailer
combination used in GEM for Phase 1.
The agencies developed the proposed
tractor curb weight inputs for Phase 2
from actual tractor weights measured in
two of EPA’s Phase 1 test programs. The
proposed trailer curb weight inputs
were derived from actual trailer weight
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measurements conducted by EPA and
from weight data provided to ICF
International by the trailer
manufacturers.174
There is a further issue of what
payload weight to assign during
compliance testing. In use, trucks
operate at different weights at different
times during their operations. The
greatest freight transport efficiency (the
amount of fuel required to move a ton
of payload) would be achieved by
operating trucks at the maximum load
for which they are designed all of the
time. However, this may not always be
practicable. Delivery logistics may
dictate partial loading. Some payloads,
such as potato chips, may fill the trailer
before it reaches the vehicle’s maximum
weight limit. Or full loads simply may
not be available commercially. M.J.
Bradley analyzed the Truck Inventory
and Use Survey and found that
approximately 9 percent of combination
tractor miles travelled empty, 61 percent
are ‘‘cubed-out’’ (the trailer is full before
the weight limit is reached), and 30
percent are ‘‘weighed out’’ (operating
weight equal 80,000 lbs which is the
gross vehicle weight limit on the
Federal Interstate Highway System or
greater than 80,000 lbs for vehicles
traveling on roads outside of the
interstate system).175
The amount of payload that a tractor
can carry depends on the category (or
GVWR and GCWR) of the vehicle. For
example, a typical Class 7 tractor can
carry less payload than a Class 8 tractor.
For Phase 1, the agencies used the
Federal Highway Administration Truck
Payload Equivalent Factors using
Vehicle Inventory and Use Survey
(VIUS) and Vehicle Travel Information
System data to determine the payloads.
FHWA’s results indicated that the
average payload of a Class 8 vehicle
ranged from 36,247 to 40,089 lbs,
depending on the average distance
travelled per day.176 The same study
shows that Class 7 vehicles carried
between 18,674 and 34,210 lbs of
payload also depending on average
distance travelled per day. Based on
174 ICF International. Investigation of Costs for
Strategies to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions for
Heavy-Duty On-road Vehicles. July 2010. Pages 4–
15. Docket Number EPA–HQ–OAR–2010–0162–
0044.
175 M.J. Bradley & Associates. Setting the Stage for
Regulation of Heavy-Duty Vehicle Fuel Economy
and GHG Emissions: Issues and Opportunities.
February 2009. Page 35. Analysis based on 1992
Truck Inventory and Use Survey data, where the
survey data allowed developing the distribution of
loads instead of merely the average loads.
176 The U.S. Federal Highway Administration.
Development of Truck Payload Equivalent Factor.
Table 11. Last viewed on March 9, 2010 at https://
ops.fhwa.dot.gov/freight/freight_analysis/faf/faf2_
reports/reports9/s510_11_12_tables.htm.
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these data, the agencies are proposing to
continue to prescribe a fixed payload of
25,000 lbs for Class 7 tractors and
38,000 lbs for Class 8 tractors for
certification testing. The agencies
propose to continue to use a common
payload for Class 8 day cabs and sleeper
cabs as a predefined GEM input because
the data available do not distinguish
among Class 8 tractor types. These
proposed payload values represent a
heavily loaded trailer, but not maximum
GVWR, since as described above the
majority of tractors ‘‘cube-out’’ rather
than ‘‘weigh-out.’’
40243
Details of the proposed individual
weight inputs by regulatory category, as
shown in Table III–30, are included in
draft RIA Chapter 3. We welcome
comment or new data to support
changes to the tractor weights, or
refinements to the heavy-haul tractor,
trailer, and payload weights.
TABLE III–30—PROPOSED COMBINATION TRACTOR WEIGHT INPUTS
Model type
Class
Class
Class
Class
Class
Class
Class
Class
Class
Class
8
8
8
8
8
8
7
7
7
8
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
Sleeper Cab High Roof ..................
Sleeper Cab Mid Roof ....................
Sleeper Cab Low Roof ...................
Day Cab High Roof ........................
Day Cab Mid Roof ..........................
Day Cab Low Roof .........................
Day Cab High Roof ........................
Day Cab Mid Roof ..........................
Day Cab Low Roof .........................
Heavy-Haul .....................................
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(e) Tire Testing
In Phase 1, the manufacturers are
required to input their tire rolling
resistance coefficient into GEM. Also in
Phase 1, the agencies adopted the
provisions in ISO 28580 to determine
the rolling resistance of tires. As
described in 40 CFR 1037.520(c), the
agencies require that at least three tires
for each tire design are to be tested at
least one time. Our assessment of the
Phase 1 program to date indicates that
these requirements reasonably balance
the need for precision, repeatability, and
testing burden. Therefore we propose to
carry over the Phase 1 testing provisions
for tire rolling resistance into Phase 2.
We welcome comments regarding the
proposed tire testing provisions.
In Phase 1, the agencies received
comments from stakeholders
highlighting a need to develop a
reference lab and alignment tires for the
HD sector. The agencies discussed the
lab-to-lab comparison conducted in the
Phase 1 EPA tire test program (76 FR
57184). The agencies reviewed the
rolling resistance data from the tires that
were tested at both the STL and
Smithers laboratories to assess interlaboratory and test machine variability.
The agencies conducted statistical
analysis of the data to gain better
understanding of lab-to-lab correlation
and developed an adjustment factor for
data measured at each of the test labs.
Based on these results, the agencies
believe the lab-to-lab variation for the
STL and Smithers laboratories would
have very small effect on measured
rolling resistance values. Based on the
test data, the agencies judge for the HD
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Tractor tare
weight
(lbs)
Regulatory subcategory
Jkt 235001
Trailer weight
(lbs)
19,000
18,750
18,500
17,500
17,100
17,000
11,500
11,100
11,000
19,000
Phase 2 program to continue to use the
current levels of variability, and the
agencies therefore propose to allow the
use of either Smithers or STL
laboratories for determining the tire
rolling resistance value. However, we
welcome comment on the need to
establish a reference machine for the HD
sector and whether tire testing facilities
are interested in and willing to commit
to developing a reference machine.
(2) Key Differences in HD Phase 2
Compliance Provisions
We welcome comment on all aspects
of the compliance program for which we
are proposing changes.
(a) Aerodynamic Assessment
In Phase 1, the manufacturers conduct
aerodynamic testing to establish the
appropriate bin and GEM input for
determining compliance with the CO2
and fuel consumption standards. The
agencies propose to continue this
general approach in HD Phase 2, but
make several enhancements to the
aerodynamic assessment of tractors. As
discussed below in this section, we
propose some modifications to the
aerodynamic test procedures—the
addition of wind averaged yaw in the
aerodynamic assessment, the addition of
trailer skirts to the standard trailer used
to determine aerodynamic performance
of tractors and revisions to the
aerodynamic bins.
(i) Aerodynamic Test Procedures
The aerodynamic drag of a vehicle is
determined by the vehicle’s coefficient
of drag (Cd), frontal area, air density and
speed. Quantifying tractor aerodynamics
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13,500
10,000
10,500
13,500
10,000
10,500
13,500
10,000
10,500
13,500
Payload
(lbs)
38,000
38,000
38,000
38,000
38,000
38,000
25,000
25,000
25,000
86,000
Total weight
(lbs)
70,500
66,750
67,000
69,000
65,100
65,500
50,000
46,100
46,500
118,500
as an input to the GEM presents
technical challenges because of the
proliferation of tractor configurations,
and subtle variations in measured
aerodynamic values among various test
procedures. In Phase 1, Class 7 and 8
tractor aerodynamic results are
developed by manufacturers using a
range of techniques, including wind
tunnel testing, computational fluid
dynamics, and constant speed tests.
We continue to believe a broad
approach allowing manufacturers to use
these multiple test procedures to
demonstrate aerodynamic performance
of its tractor fleet is appropriate given
that no single test procedure is superior
in all aspects to other approaches.
However, we also recognize the need for
consistency and a level playing field in
evaluating aerodynamic performance.
To address the consistency and level
playing field concerns, NHTSA and EPA
adopted in Phase 1, while working with
industry, an approach that identified a
reference aerodynamic test method and
a procedure to align results from other
aerodynamic test procedures with the
reference method.
The agencies adopted in Phase 1 an
enhanced coastdown procedure as the
reference method (see 40 CFR 1066.310)
and defined a process for manufacturers
to align drag results from each of their
own test methods to the reference
method results using Falt-aero (see 40
CFR 1037.525). Manufacturers are able
to use any aerodynamic evaluation
method in demonstrating a vehicle’s
aerodynamic performance as long as the
method is aligned to the reference
method. The agencies propose to
continue to use this alignment method
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approach to maintain the testing
flexibility that manufacturers have
today. However, the agencies propose to
increase the rigor in determining the
Falt-aero for Phase 2. Beginning in 2021
MY, we propose that the manufacturers
would be required to determine a new
Falt-aero for each of their tractor models
for each aerodynamic test method. In
Phase 1, manufacturers are required to
determine their Falt-aero using only a
high roof sleeper cab with a full
aerodynamics package (see 40 CFR
1037.521(a)(2) and proposed 40 CFR
1037.525(b)(2)). In Phase 2, we propose
that manufacturers would be required to
determine a unique Falt-aero value for
each major model of their high roof day
cabs and high roof sleeper cabs. In
Phase 2, we propose that manufacturers
may carry over the Falt-aero value until
a model changeover or based on the
agencies’ discretion to require up to six
new Falt-aero determinations each year.
We welcome comment on the burden
associated with this proposed change to
conduct up to six coastdown tests per
year per manufacturer.
Based on feedback received during
the development of Phase 1, we
understand that there is interest from
some manufacturers to change the
reference method in Phase 2 from
coastdown to constant speed testing.
EPA has conducted an aerodynamic test
program at Southwest Research Institute
to evaluate both methods in terms of
cost of testing, testing time, testing
facility requirements, and repeatability
of results. Details of the analysis and
results are included in draft RIA
Chapter 3.2. The results showed that the
enhanced coastdown test procedures
and analysis produced results with
acceptable repeatability and at a lower
cost than the constant speed testing.
Based on the results of this testing, the
agencies propose to continue to use the
enhanced coastdown procedure for the
reference method in Phase 2.177
However, we welcome comment on the
need to change the reference method for
the Phase 2 final rule to constant speed
testing, including comparisons of
aerodynamic test results using both the
coastdown and constant speed test
procedures. In addition, we welcome
comments on and suggested revisions to
the constant speed test procedure
specifications set forth in Chapter
3.2.2.2 of the draft RIA and 40 CFR
1037.533. If we determine that it is
appropriate to make the change, then
the aerodynamic bins in the final rule
would be adjusted to take into account
177 Southwest Research Institute. ‘‘Heavy Duty
Class 8 Truck Coastdown and Constant Speed
Testing.’’ April 2015.
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the difference in absolute CdA values
due to the change in method.
The agencies are also considering
refinements to the computational fluid
dynamics modeling method to
determine the aerodynamic performance
of tractors. Specifically, we are
considering whether the conditions for
performing the analysis require greater
specificity (e.g., wind speed and
direction inclusion, turbulence intensity
criteria value) or if turbulence model
and mesh deformation should be
required, rather than ‘‘if applicable,’’ for
all CFD analysis.178 The agencies
welcome comment on the proposed
revisions.
In Phase 1, we adopted interim
provisions in 40 CFR 1037.150(k) that
accounted for coastdown measurement
variability by allowing a compliance
demonstration based on in-use test
results if the drag area was at or below
the maximum drag area allowed for the
bin above the bin to which the vehicle
was certified. Since adoption of Phase 1,
EPA has conducted in-use aerodynamic
testing and found that uncertainty
associated with coastdown testing is
less than anticipated.179 In addition, we
are proposing additional enhancements
in the Phase 2 coastdown procedures to
continue to reduce the variability of
coastdown results, including the impact
of environmental conditions. Therefore,
we are proposing to sunset the provision
in 40 CFR 1037.150(k) at the end of the
Phase 1 program (after the 2020 model
year). We request comment on whether
or not we should factor in a test
variability compliance margin into the
aerodynamic test procedure, and
therefore request data on aerodynamic
test variability.
(ii) Wind Averaged Drag
In Phase 1, EPA and NHTSA
recognized that wind conditions, most
notably wind direction, have a greater
impact on real world CO2 emissions and
fuel consumption of heavy-duty trucks
than of light-duty vehicles.180 As noted
in the NAS report, the wind average
drag coefficient is about 15 percent
higher than the zero degree coefficient
of drag.181 In addition, the agencies
received comments in Phase 1 that
supported the use of wind averaged drag
results for the aerodynamic
determination. The agencies considered
adopting the use of a wind averaged
178 40 CFR 1037.531 ‘‘Computational fluid
dynamics (CFD)’’.
179 Southwest Research Institute. ‘‘Heavy Duty
Class 8 Truck Coastdown and Constant Speed
Testing.’’ April 2015.
180 See 2010 NAS Report, page 95
181 See 2010 NAS Report, Finding 2–4 on page 39.
Also see 2014 NAS Report, Recommendation 3.5.
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drag coefficient in the Phase 1
regulatory program, but ultimately
decided to finalize drag values which
represent zero yaw (i.e., representing
wind from directly in front of the
vehicle, not from the side) instead. We
took this approach recognizing that the
reference method is coastdown testing
and it is not capable of determining
wind averaged yaw.182 Wind tunnels
and CFD are currently the only tools to
accurately assess the influence of wind
speed and direction on a truck’s
aerodynamic performance. The agencies
recognized, as NAS did, that the results
of using the zero yaw approach may
result in fuel consumption predictions
that are offset slightly from real world
performance levels, not unlike the offset
we see today between fuel economy test
results in the CAFE program and actual
fuel economy performance observed inuse.
As the tractor manufacturers continue
to refine the aerodynamics of tractors,
we believe that continuing the zero yaw
approach into Phase 2 could potentially
impact the overall technology
effectiveness or change the kinds of
technology decisions made by the
tractor manufacturers in developing
equipment to meet our proposed HD
Phase 2 standards. Therefore, we are
proposing aerodynamic test procedures
that take into account the wind averaged
drag performance of tractors. The
agencies propose to account for this
change in aerodynamic test procedure
by appropriately adjusting the
aerodynamic bins to reflect a wind
averaged drag result instead of a zero
yaw result.
The agencies propose that beginning
in 2021 MY, the manufacturers would
be required to adjust their CdA values
to represent a zero yaw value from
coastdown and add the CdA impact of
the wind averaged drag. The impact of
wind averaged drag relative to a zero
yaw condition can only be measured in
a wind tunnel or with CFD. We
welcome data evaluating the
consistency of wind averaged drag
measurements between wind tunnel,
CFD, and other potential methods such
as constant speed or coastdown. The
agencies propose that manufacturers
would use the following equation to
make the necessary adjustments to a
coastdown result to obtain the CdAwad
value:
CdAwad = CdAzero,coastdown + (CdAwad,wind
tunnel¥CdAzero,wind tunnel) * Falt-aero
If the manufacturer has a wind
averaged CdA value from either a wind
tunnel or CFD, then we propose they
182 See
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would use the following equation to
obtain the CdAwad value:
CdAwad = CdAwad,wind tunnel or CFD * Falt-aero
We welcome comment on whether the
wind averaged drag should be
determined using a full yaw sweep as
specified in Appendix A of the Society
of Automotive Engineers (SAE)
recommended practice number J1252
‘‘SAE Wind Tunnel Test Procedure for
Trucks and Buses’’ (e.g., zero degree
yaw and a six other yaw angles at
increments of 3 degrees or greater) or a
subset of specific angles as currently
allowed in the Phase 1 regulations.183
To reduce the testing burden the
agencies propose that manufacturers
have the option of determining the
offset between zero yaw and wind
averaged yaw either through testing or
by using the EPA-defined default offset.
Details regarding the determination of
the offset are included in the draft RIA
Chapter 3.2. We propose the
manufacturers would use the following
equation if they had a zero yaw
coastdown value and choose not to
conduct wind averaged measurements.
CdAwad = CdAzero,coastdown + 0.80
In addition, we propose the
manufacturers would use the following
equation if they had a zero yaw wind
tunnel or CFD value and choose not to
conduct wind averaged measurements.
CdAwad = (CdAzero,wind tunnel or CFD *
Falt-aero)+0.80
We welcome comments on all aspects
of the proposed wind averaged drag
provisions.
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(iii) Standard Trailer Definition
Similar to the approach the agencies
adopted in Phase 1, NHTSA and EPA
are proposing provisions such that the
tractor performance in GEM is judged
assuming the tractor is pulling a
standardized trailer.184 The agencies
believe that an assessment of the tractor
fuel consumption and CO2 emissions
should be conducted using a tractortrailer combination, as tractors are
invariably used in combination with
trailers and this is their essential
commercial purpose. Trailers, of course,
also influence the extent of carbon
emissions from the tractor (and viceversa). We believe that using a
standardized trailer best reflects the
impact of the overall weight of the
tractor-trailer and the aerodynamic
technologies in actual use, and
consequent real-world performance,
where tractors are designed and used
with a trailer. EPA research confirms
183 Proposed 40 CFR 1037.525(d)(2); ‘‘Yaw Sweep
Corrections’’.
184 See 40 CFR 1037.501(g).
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what one would intuit: tractor-trailer
pairings are almost always optimized.
EPA conducted an evaluation of over
4,000 tractor-trailer combinations using
live traffic cameras in 2010.185 The
results showed that approximately 95
percent of the tractors were matched
with the standard trailer specified (high
roof tractor with box trailer, mid roof
tractor with tanker trailer, and low roof
with flatbed trailer). Therefore, the
agencies propose that Phase 2 GEM
continue to use a predefined typical
trailer defined in Phase 1 in assessing
overall performance for test purposes.
As such, the high roof tractors would be
paired with a standard box trailer; the
mid roof tractors would be paired with
a tanker trailer; and the low roof tractors
would be paired with a flatbed trailer.
However, the agencies are proposing
to change the definition of the standard
box trailer used by tractor
manufacturers to determine the
aerodynamic performance of high roof
tractors in Phase 2. We believe this is
necessary to reflect the aerodynamic
improvements experienced by the trailer
fleet over the last several years due to
influences from the California Air
Resources Board mandate 186 and EPA’s
SmartWay Transport Partnership. The
standard box trailer used in Phase 1 to
assess the aerodynamic performance of
high roof tractors is a 53 foot box trailer
without any aerodynamic devices. In
the development of Phase 2, the
agencies evaluated the increase in
adoption rates of trailer side skirts and
boat tails in the market over the last
several years and have seen a marked
increase. We estimate that
approximately 50 percent of the new
trailers sold in 2018 will have trailer
side skirts.187 188 As the agencies look
towards the proposed standards in the
2021 and beyond timeframe, we believe
that it is appropriate to update the
standard box trailer definition. In 2021–
2027, we believe the trailer fleet will be
a mix of trailers with no aerodynamics,
trailers with skirts, and trailers with
advanced aero; with the advanced aero
being a very limited subset of the new
trailers sold each year. Consequently,
overall, we believe a trailer with a skirt
185 See Memo to Docket, Amy Kopin. ‘‘Truck and
Trailer Roof Match Analysis.’’ August 2010.
186 California Air Resources Board. Tractor-Trailer
Greenhouse Gas regulation. Last viewed on
September 4, 2014 at https://www.arb.ca.gov/
msprog/truckstop/trailers/trailers.htm.
187 Ben Sharpe (ICCT) and Mike Roeth (North
American Council for Freight Efficiency), ‘‘Costs
and Adoption Rates of Fuel-Saving Technologies for
Trailer in the North American On-Road Freight
Sector’’, Feb 2014.
188 Frost & Sullivan, ‘‘Strategic Analysis of North
American Semi-trailer Advanced Technology
Market’’, Feb 2013.
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40245
will be the most representative of the
trailer fleet for the duration of the
regulation timeframe, and plausibly
beyond. Therefore, we are proposing
that the standard box trailer in Phase
2—the trailer assumed during the
certification process to be paired with a
high roof tractor—be updated to include
a trailer skirt starting in 2021 model
year. Even though the agencies are
proposing new box trailer standards
beginning in 2018 MY, we are not
proposing to update the standard trailer
in the tractor certification process until
2021 MY, to align with the new tractor
standards. If we were to revise the
standardized trailer definition for Phase
1, then we would need to revise the
Phase 1 tractor standards. The details of
the trailer skirt definition are included
in 40 CFR 1037.501(g)(1).
EPA has conducted extensive
aerodynamic testing to quantify the
impact on the coefficient of drag of a
high roof tractor due to the addition of
a trailer skirt. Details of the test program
and the results can be found in the draft
RIA Chapter 3.2. The results of the test
program indicate that on average, the
impact of a trailer skirt matching the
definition of the skirt specified in 40
CFR 1037.501(g)(1) is approximately 8
percent improvement in coefficient of
drag area. This off-set was used during
the development of the Phase 2
aerodynamic bins.
We seek comment on our proposed
HD Phase 2 standard trailer
configuration. We also welcome
comments on suggestions on alternative
ways to define the standard trailer, such
as developing a certified computer
aided drawing (CAD) model.
(iv) Aerodynamic Bins
The agencies are proposing to
continue the approach where the
manufacturer would determine a
tractor’s aerodynamic drag force through
testing, determine the appropriate
predefined aerodynamic bin, and then
input the predefined CdA value for that
bin into the GEM. The agencies
proposed Phase 2 aerodynamic bins
reflect three changes to the Phase 1
bins—the incorporation of wind
averaged drag, the addition of trailer
skirts to the standard box trailer used to
determine the aerodynamic performance
of high roof tractors, and the addition of
bins to reflect the continued
improvement of tractor aerodynamics in
the future. Because of each of these
changes, the aerodynamic bins proposed
for Phase 2 are not directly comparable
to the Phase 1 bins.
HD Phase 1 included five
aerodynamic bins to cover the spectrum
of aerodynamic performance of high
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Federal Register / Vol. 80, No. 133 / Monday, July 13, 2015 / Proposed Rules
roof tractors. Since the development of
the Phase 1 rules, the manufacturers
have continued to invest in
aerodynamic improvements for tractors.
This continued evolution of
aerodynamic performance, both in
production and in the research stage as
part of the SuperTruck program, has
consequently led the agencies to
propose two additional aerodynamic
technology bins (Bins VI and VII) for
high roof tractors. These two new bins
would further segment the Phase 1
aerodynamic Bin V to recognize the
difference in advanced aerodynamic
technologies and designs.
In both HD Phase 1 and as proposed
by the agencies in Phase 2, aerodynamic
Bin I through Bin V represent tractors
sharing similar levels of technology. The
first high roof aerodynamic category,
Bin I, is designed to represent tractor
bodies which prioritize appearance or
special duty capabilities over
aerodynamics. These Bin I tractors
incorporate few, if any, aerodynamic
features and may have several features
that detract from aerodynamics, such as
bug deflectors, custom sunshades, Bpillar exhaust stacks, and others. The
second high roof aerodynamics category
is Bin II which roughly represents the
aerodynamic performance of the average
new tractor sold in 2010. The agencies
developed this bin to incorporate
conventional tractors which capitalize
on a generally aerodynamic shape and
avoid classic features which increase
drag. High roof tractors within Bin III
build on the basic aerodynamics of Bin
II tractors with added components to
reduce drag in the most significant areas
on the tractor, such as integral roof
fairings, side extending gap reducers,
fuel tank fairings, and streamlined grill/
hood/mirrors/bumpers, similar to 2013
model year SmartWay tractors. The Bin
IV aerodynamic category for high roof
tractors builds upon the Bin III tractor
body with additional aerodynamic
treatments such as underbody airflow
treatment, down exhaust, and lowered
ride height, among other technologies.
HD Phase 1 Bin V tractors incorporate
advanced technologies which are
currently in the prototype stage of
development, such as advanced gap
reduction, rearview cameras to replace
mirrors, wheel system streamlining, and
advanced body designs. For HD Phase 2,
the agencies propose to segment the
aerodynamic performance of these
advanced technologies into Bins V
through VII.
In Phase 1, the agencies adopted only
two aerodynamic bins for low and mid
roof tractors. The agencies limited the
number of bins to reflect the actual
range of aerodynamic technologies
effective in low and mid roof tractor
applications. High roof tractors are
consistently paired with box trailer
designs, and therefore manufacturers
can design the tractor aerodynamics as
a tractor-trailer unit and target specific
areas like the gap between the tractor
and trailer. In addition, the high roof
tractors tend to spend more time at high
speed operation which increases the
impact of aerodynamics on fuel
consumption and GHG emissions. On
the other hand, low and mid roof
tractors are designed to pull variable
trailer loads and shapes. They may pull
trailers such as flat bed, low boy,
tankers, or bulk carriers. The loads on
flat bed trailers can range from
rectangular cartons with tarps, to a
single roll of steel, to a front loader. Due
to these variables, manufacturers do not
design unique low and mid roof tractor
aerodynamics but instead use
derivatives from their high roof tractor
designs. The aerodynamic
improvements to the bumper, hood,
windshield, mirrors, and doors are
developed for the high roof tractor
application and then carried over into
the low and mid roof applications. As
mentioned above, the types of designs
that would move high roof tractors from
a Bin III to Bins IV through VII include
features such as gap reducers and
integral roof fairings which would not
be appropriate on low and mid roof
tractors.
As Phase 2 looks to further improve
the aerodynamics for high roof sleeper
cabs, we believe it is also appropriate to
expand the number of bins for low and
mid roof tractors too. For Phase 2, the
agencies are proposing to differentiate
the aerodynamic performance for low
and mid roof applications with four
bins, instead of two, in response to
feedback received from manufacturers
of low and mid roof tractors related to
the limited opportunity to incorporate
aerodynamic technologies in their
compliance plan. We propose that low
and mid roof tractors may determine the
aerodynamic bin based on the
aerodynamic bin of an equivalent high
roof tractor, as shown below in Table
III–31.
TABLE III–31—PROPOSED PHASE 2
REVISIONS TO 40 CFR 1037.520(B)(3)
High roof bin
Bin
Bin
Bin
Bin
Bin
Bin
Bin
Low and mid roof bin
I
II
III
IV
V
VI
VII
Bin
Bin
Bin
Bin
Bin
Bin
Bin
I
I
II
II
III
III
IV
The agencies developed new high roof
tractor aerodynamic bins for Phase 2
that reflect the change from zero yaw to
wind averaged drag, the more
aerodynamic reference trailer, and the
addition of two bins. Details regarding
the derivation of the proposed high roof
bins are included in Draft RIA Chapter
3.2.8. The proposed high roof tractor
bins are defined in Table III–32. The
proposed revisions to the low and mid
roof tractor bins reflect the addition of
two new aerodynamic bins and are
listed in Table III–33.
TABLE III–32—PROPOSED PHASE 2 AERODYNAMIC INPUT DEFINITIONS TO GEM FOR HIGH ROOF TRACTORS
Class 7
Class 8
Day cab
Sleeper cab
High roof
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Day cab
High roof
High roof
Aerodynamic Test Results (CdAwad in m2)
Bin
Bin
Bin
Bin
Bin
Bin
Bin
I ..........................................................................................................................................................
II .........................................................................................................................................................
III ........................................................................................................................................................
IV .......................................................................................................................................................
V ........................................................................................................................................................
VI .......................................................................................................................................................
VII ......................................................................................................................................................
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E:\FR\FM\13JYP2.SGM
≥7.5
6.8–7.4
6.2–6.7
5.6–6.1
5.1–5.5
4.7–5.0
≤4.6
13JYP2
≥7.5
6.8–7.4
6.2–6.7
5.6–6.1
5.1–5.5
4.7–5.0
≤4.6
≥7.3
6.6–7.2
6.0–6.5
5.4–5.9
4.9–5.3
4.5–4.8
≤4.4
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Federal Register / Vol. 80, No. 133 / Monday, July 13, 2015 / Proposed Rules
TABLE III–32—PROPOSED PHASE 2 AERODYNAMIC INPUT DEFINITIONS TO GEM FOR HIGH ROOF TRACTORS—Continued
Class 7
Class 8
Day cab
Day cab
Sleeper cab
High roof
High roof
High roof
Aerodynamic Input to GEM (CdAwad in m2)
Bin
Bin
Bin
Bin
Bin
Bin
Bin
I ..........................................................................................................................................................
II .........................................................................................................................................................
III ........................................................................................................................................................
IV .......................................................................................................................................................
V ........................................................................................................................................................
VI .......................................................................................................................................................
VII ......................................................................................................................................................
7.6
7.1
6.5
5.8
5.3
4.9
4.5
7.6
7.1
6.5
5.8
5.3
4.9
4.5
7.4
6.9
6.3
5.6
5.1
4.7
4.3
TABLE III–33—PROPOSED PHASE 2 AERODYNAMIC INPUT DEFINITIONS TO GEM FOR LOW AND MID ROOF TRACTORS
Class 7
Class 8
Day cab
Low roof
Day cab
Mid roof
Aerodynamic Test Results (CdA in
Bin
Bin
Bin
Bin
I ..................................................................................
II .................................................................................
III ................................................................................
IV ...............................................................................
≥5.1
4.6–5.0
4.2–4.5
≤4.1
≥6.5
6.0–6.4
5.6–5.9
≤5.5
Low roof
Sleeper cab
Mid roof
Low roof
Mid roof
m2)
≥5.1
4.6–5.0
4.2–4.5
≤4.1
≥6.5
6.0–6.4
5.6–5.9
≤5.5
≥5.1
4.6–5.0
4.2–4.5
≤4.1
≥6.5
6.0–6.4
5.6–5.9
≤5.5
6.7
6.2
5.7
5.4
5.3
4.8
4.3
4.0
6.7
6.2
5.7
5.4
Aerodynamic Input to GEM (CdA in m2)
Bin
Bin
Bin
Bin
I ..................................................................................
II .................................................................................
III ................................................................................
IV ...............................................................................
(b) Road Grade in the Drive Cycles
Road grade can have a significant
impact on the overall fuel economy of
a heavy-duty vehicle. Table III–34
shows the results from a real world
evaluation of heavy-duty tractor-trailers
conducted by Oak Ridge National
Lab.189 The study found that the impact
of a mild upslope of one to four percent
led to a decrease in average fuel
economy from 7.33 mpg to 4.35 mpg.
These results are as expected because
5.3
4.8
4.3
4.0
6.7
6.2
5.7
5.4
vehicles consume more fuel while
driving on an upslope than driving on
a flat road because the vehicle needs to
exert additional power to overcome the
grade resistance force.190 The amount of
extra fuel increases with increases in
road gradient. On downgrades, vehicles
consume less fuel than on a flat road.
However, as shown in the fuel
consumption results in Table III–34, the
amount of increase in fuel consumption
on an upslope is greater than the
amount of decrease in fuel consumption
5.3
4.8
4.3
4.0
on a downslope which leads to a net
increase in fuel consumption. As an
example, the data shows that a vehicle
would use 0.3 gallons per mile more
fuel in a severe upslope than on flat
terrain, but only save 0.1 gallons of fuel
per mile on a severe downslope. In
another study, Southwest Research
Institute modeling found that the
addition of road grade to a drive cycle
has an 8 to 10 percent negative impact
on fuel economy.191
TABLE III–34—FUEL CONSUMPTION RELATIVE TO ROAD GRADE
Average fuel
economy
(miles per gallon)
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Type of terrain
Severe upslope (>4%) .....................................................................................................................
Mild upslope (1% to 4%) .................................................................................................................
Flat terrain (1% to 1%) ....................................................................................................................
Mild downslope (¥4% to ¥1%) .....................................................................................................
Severe downslope (<¥4%) .............................................................................................................
189 Oakridge National Laboratory. Transportation
Energy Book, Edition 33. Table 5.10 Effect of
Terrain on Class 8 Truck Fuel Economy. 2014. Last
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accessed on September 19, 2014 at https://
cta.ornl.gov/data/Chapter5.shtml.
190 Ibid.
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2.90
4.35
7.33
15.11
23.50
Average fuel
consumption
(gallons per mile)
0.34
0.23
0.14
0.07
0.04
191 Reinhart, T. (2015). Commercial Medium- and
Heavy-Duty (MD/HD) Truck Fuel Efficiency
Technology Study—Report #2. Washington, DC:
National Highway Traffic Safety Administration.
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the inclusion of an interim road grade
profile, as shown below in Figure III–2,
in both the 55 mph and 65 mph cycles.
The grade profile was developed by
Southwest Research Institute on a 12.5
mile stretch of restricted-access highway
during on-road tests conducted for
EPA’s validation of the Phase 2 version
of GEM.196 The minimum grade in the
interim cycle is ¥2.1 percent and the
maximum grade is 2.4 percent. The
cycle spends 30 percent of the distance
in grades of +/¥ 0.5 percent. Overall,
the cycle spends approximately 50
percent of the time in relatively flat
terrain with road gradients of less than
1 percent.
The agencies believe the interim cycle
has sufficient representativeness based
on a comparison to data from the
Department of Transportation used in
the development of the light-duty
Federal Test Procedure cycle (FTP),
which found approximately 55 percent
of the vehicle miles traveled were on
road gradients of less than 1 percent.197
Consequently, we expect that road grade
profiles developed by NREL and by the
agencies will not differ significantly
from the interim profile proposed here.
The agencies request data from fleet
operators or others that have real world
grade profile data.
produced. We treated such weight
reduction in two ways in Phase 1 to
account for the fact that combination
tractor-trailers weigh-out approximately
one-third of the time and cube-out
approximately two-thirds of the time.
Therefore, one-third of the weight
reduction is added payload in the
denominator while two-thirds of the
weight reduction is subtracted from the
overall weight of the vehicle in GEM.
See 76 FR 57153. The agencies also
allowed manufacturers to petition for
off-cycle credits for components not
measured in GEM.
NHTSA and EPA propose carrying the
Phase 1 treatment of weight reduction
into Phase 2. That is, these types of
weight reduction, although not part of
the agencies’ technology packages for
Heavy-Duty Vehicles, IA Number DW–89–
92402501.
194 Memorandum dated April 2015 on Possible
Tractor, Trailer, and Vocational Vehicle Standards
Derived from Alternative Road Grade Profiles.
195 Ibid.
196 Southwest Research Institute. ‘‘GEM
Validation’’, Technical Research Workshop
supporting EPA and NHTSA Phase 2 Standards for
MD/HD Greenhouse Gas and Fuel Efficiency—
December 10 and 11, 2014. Can be accessed at
https://www.epa.gov/otaq/climate/regs-heavyduty.htm.
197 U.S. EPA. FTP Preliminary Report. May 14,
1993. Table 5–1, page 76. EPA–420–R–93–007.
In Phase 1, the agencies adopted
regulations that provided manufacturers
with the ability to use GEM to measure
emission reduction and reductions in
fuel consumption resulting from use of
high strength steel and aluminum
components for weight reduction,, and
to do so without the burden of entering
the curb weight of every tractor
192 National Academy of Science. ‘‘Reducing the
Fuel Consumption and GHG Emissions of Mediumand Heavy-Duty Vehicles, Phase Two, First
Report.’’ 2014. Recommendation S.3 (3.6).
193 See NREL Report ‘‘EPA Road Grade profiles’’
for DOE–EPA Interagency Agreement to Refine
Drive Cycles for GHG Certification of Medium- and
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profiles is representative of the nation’s
limited-access highways with 55 and 60
mph speed limits, and another is
representative of such highways with
speed limits of 65 to 75 mph. The
profiles are distance-based and cover a
maximum distance of 12 and 15 miles,
respectively. A report documenting this
NREL work is in the public docket for
these proposed rules, and comments are
requested on the recommendations
therein.193 In addition to NREL work,
the agencies have independently
developed yet another candidate road
grade profile for use in the 55 mph and
65 mph highway cruise duty cycles.
While based on the same road grade
database generated by NREL for U.S.
restricted-access highways, its design is
predicated on a different approach. The
development of this profile is
documented in the memorandum to the
docket.194 The agencies have evaluated
all of the candidate road grade profiles
and have prepared possible alternative
tractor standards based on these
profiles. The agencies request comment
on this analysis, which is available in a
memorandum to the docket.195
For the proposal, the agencies
developed an interim road grade profile
for development of the proposed
standards. The agencies are proposing
(c) Weight Reduction
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In Phase 1, the agencies did not
include road grade. However, we
believe it is important to propose
including road grade in Phase 2 to
properly assess the value of
technologies, such as downspeeding
and the integration of the engine and
transmission, which were not
technologies included in the technology
basis for Phase 1 and are not directly
assessed by GEM in its Phase 1 iteration.
The addition of road grade to the drive
cycles would be consistent with the
NAS recommendation in the 2014 Phase
2 First Report.192
The U.S. Department of Energy and
EPA have partnered to support a project
aimed at evaluating, refining and/or
developing the appropriate road grade
profiles for the 55 mph and 65 mph
highway cruise duty cycles that would
be used in the certification of heavyduty vehicles to the Phase 2 GHG
emission and fuel efficiency standards.
The National Renewable Energy
Laboratory (NREL) was contracted to do
this work and has since developed two
pairs of candidate, activity-weighted
road grade profiles representative of
U.S. limited-access highways. To this
end, NREL used high-accuracy road
grade data and county-specific vehicle
miles traveled data. One pair of the
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Federal Register / Vol. 80, No. 133 / Monday, July 13, 2015 / Proposed Rules
the proposed (or alternative) standards,
can still be recognized in GEM up to a
point. In addition, the agencies propose
to add additional thermoplastic
components to the weight reduction
table, as shown below in Table III–35.
The thermoplastic component weight
reduction values were developed in
coordination with SABIC, a
thermoplastic component supplier.
Also, in Phase 2, we are proposing to
recognize the potential weight reduction
opportunities in the powertrain and
drivetrain systems as part of the vehicle
inputs into GEM. Therefore, we believe
it is appropriate to also recognize the
weight reduction associated with both
smaller engines and 6x2 axles.198 We
propose including the values listed in
Table III–36 and make them available
upon promulgation of the final Phase 2
rules (i.e., available even under Phase
1). We welcome comments on all
aspects of weight reduction.
TABLE III–35—PROPOSED PHASE 2 WEIGHT REDUCTION TECHNOLOGIES FOR TRACTORS
Weight reduction technology
Single Wide Drive Tire with .................................................
Steer Tire or Dual Wide Drive Tire with ..............................
Weight reduction
(lb per tire/wheel)
Steel Wheel ........................................................................
Aluminum Wheel .................................................................
Light Weight Aluminum Wheel ...........................................
High Strength Steel Wheel .................................................
Aluminum Wheel .................................................................
Light Weight Aluminum Wheel ...........................................
84
139
147
8
21
30
Weight reduction technologies
Aluminum
weight
reduction
(lb.)
High strength
steel weight
reduction
(lb.)
Thermoplastic
weight
reduction
(lb.)
Door (per door) ......................................................................................................................
Roof (per vehicle) ..................................................................................................................
Cab rear wall (per vehicle) ....................................................................................................
Cab floor (per vehicle) ...........................................................................................................
Hood (per vehicle) .................................................................................................................
Hood Support Structure (per vehicle) ....................................................................................
Hood and Front Fender (per vehicle) ....................................................................................
Day Cab Roof Fairing (per vehicle) .......................................................................................
Sleeper Cab Roof Fairing (per vehicle) .................................................................................
Aerodynamic Side Extender (per vehicle) .............................................................................
Fairing Support Structure (per vehicle) .................................................................................
Instrument Panel Support Structure (per vehicle) .................................................................
Brake Drums—Drive (per 4) ..................................................................................................
Brake Drums—Non Drive (per 2) ..........................................................................................
Frame Rails (per vehicle) ......................................................................................................
Crossmember—Cab (per vehicle) .........................................................................................
Crossmember—Suspension (per vehicle) .............................................................................
Crossmember—Non Suspension ( per 3) .............................................................................
Fifth Wheel (per vehicle) .......................................................................................................
Radiator Support (per vehicle) ..............................................................................................
Fuel Tank Support Structure (per vehicle) ............................................................................
Steps (per vehicle) .................................................................................................................
Bumper (per vehicle) .............................................................................................................
Shackles (per vehicle) ...........................................................................................................
Front Axle (per vehicle) .........................................................................................................
Suspension Brackets, Hangers (per vehicle) ........................................................................
Transmission Case (per vehicle) ...........................................................................................
Clutch Housing (per vehicle) .................................................................................................
Drive Axle Hubs (per 4) .........................................................................................................
Non Drive Front Hubs (per 2) ................................................................................................
Driveshaft (per vehicle) ..........................................................................................................
Transmission/Clutch Shift Levers (per vehicle) .....................................................................
20
60
49
56
55
15
..........................
..........................
75
..........................
35
5
140
60
440
15
25
15
100
20
40
35
33
10
60
100
50
40
80
40
20
20
6
18
16
18
17
3
..........................
..........................
20
..........................
6
1
11
8
87
5
6
5
25
6
12
6
10
3
15
30
12
10
20
5
5
4
..........................
..........................
..........................
..........................
..........................
..........................
65
18
40
10
..........................
..........................
..........................
..........................
..........................
..........................
..........................
..........................
..........................
..........................
..........................
..........................
..........................
..........................
..........................
..........................
..........................
..........................
..........................
..........................
..........................
..........................
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TABLE III–36—PROPOSED PHASE 2
WEIGHT REDUCTION VALUES FOR
OTHER COMPONENTS
TABLE III–36—PROPOSED PHASE 2
WEIGHT REDUCTION VALUES FOR
OTHER COMPONENTS—Continued
TABLE III–36—PROPOSED PHASE 2
WEIGHT REDUCTION VALUES FOR
OTHER COMPONENTS—Continued
Weight reduction
technology
Weight reduction
technology
Weight reduction
technology
Weight reduction
(lb)
6x2 axle configuration
in tractors ..............
4x2 axle configuration
in Class 8 tractors
300
Weight reduction
(lb)
Tractor engine with
displacement less
than 14.0L .............
199300
300
CI Liquified Natural
Gas tractor ............
SI Compressed Natural Gas tractor .....
198 North American Council for Freight
Efficiency. ‘‘Confidence Findings on the Potential of
6×2 Axles.’’ 2014. Page 16.
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Weight reduction
(lb)
200 201¥600
¥525
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agencies adopted provisions to allow for
TABLE III–36—PROPOSED PHASE 2
WEIGHT REDUCTION VALUES FOR discounted credits for idle reduction
technologies that allowed for override
OTHER COMPONENTS—Continued
conditions and expiring engine
shutdown systems (see 40 CFR
1037.660). Similarly, the agencies
adopted provisions to allow for ‘‘soft
CI Compressed Nattop’’ speeds and expiring vehicle speed
ural Gas tractor .....
¥900 limiters, and we are not proposing to
change those provisions (see 40 CFR
(d) GEM Inputs
1037.640). However, as we develop
Phase 2, we understand that the
The agencies propose to continue to
concerns still exist that the ability for a
require the Phase 1 GEM inputs for
tractor manufacturer to reflect the use of
tractors in Phase 2. These inputs
a VSL in its compliance determination
include the following:
may be constrained by the demand for
• Steer tire rolling resistance,
flexibility in the use of VSLs by the
• Drive tire rolling resistance,
customers. . The agencies welcome
• Coefficient of Drag Area,
• Idle Reduction, and
suggestions on how to close the gap
• Vehicle Speed Limiter.
between the provisions that would be
As discussed above in Section II.C
acceptable to the industry while
and III.D, there are several additional
maintaining our need to ensure that
inputs that are proposed for Phase 2.
modifications do not violate 42 U.S.C.
The new GEM inputs proposed for
7522(a)(3)(A). We request comment on
Phase 2 include the following:
potential approaches which would
• Engine information including
enable feedback mechanism between
manufacturer, model, combustion type,
the vehicle owner/fleet that would
fuel type, family name, and calibration
provide the agencies the assurance that
identification
the benefits of the VSLs will be seen in
• Engine fuel map,
use but which also provides the vehicle
• Engine full-load torque curve,
owner/fleet the flexibility they many
• Engine motoring curve,
need during in-use operation. More
• Transmission information including generally in our discussions with
manufacturer and model
several trucking fleets and with the
• Transmission type,
American Trucking Associations an
• Transmission gear ratios,
interest was expressed by the fleets if
• Drive axle ratio,
there was a means by which they could
• Loaded tire radius for drive tires,
participate in the emissions credit
and
transactions which is currently limited
• Other technology inputs.
to the directly regulated truck
The agencies welcome comments on
manufacturers. VSLs and extended idle
the inclusion of these proposed
systems were two example technologies
technologies into GEM in Phase 2.
that fleets and individual owners can
order for a new build truck, and that
(e) Vehicle Speed Limiters and
from the fleet’s perspective the truck
Extended Idle Provisions
manufacturers receive emission credits
The agencies received comments
for. The agencies do not have a specific
during the development of Phase 1 that
proposal or a position on the request
the Clean Air Act provisions to prevent
from the American Trucking
tampering (CAA section 203(a)(3)(A); 42
Association and its members, but we
U.S.C. 7522(a)(3)(A)) of vehicle speed
request comment on whether or not it is
limiters and extended idle reduction
appropriate to allow owners to
technologies would prohibit their use
participate in the overall compliance
for demonstrating compliance with the
process for the directly regulated
Phase 1 standards. In Phase 1, the
parties, if such a thing is allowed under
the two agencies’ respective statutes,
199 Kenworth. ‘‘Kenworth T680 with PACCAR
and what regulatory provisions would
MX–13 Engine Lowers Costs for Oregon Open-Deck
be needed to incorporate such an
Carrier.’’ Last viewed on December 16, 2014 at
https://www.kenworth.com/news/news-releases/
approach.
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Weight reduction
technology
Weight reduction
(lb)
2013/december/t680-cotc.aspx.
200 National Energy Policy Institute. ‘‘What Set of
Conditions Would Make the Business Case to
Convert Heavy Trucks to Natural Gas?—A Case
Study.’’ May 1, 2012. Last accessed on December
15, 2014 at https://www.tagnaturalgasinfo.com/
uploads/1/2/2/3/12232668/natural_gas_for_heavy_
trucks.pdf.
201 Westport presentation (2013). Last accessed on
December 15, 2014 at https://www.westport.com/
file_library/files/webinar/2013–06–19_
CNGandLNG.pdf.
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(f) Emission Control Labels
The agencies consider it crucial that
authorized compliance inspectors are
able to identify whether a vehicle is
certified, and if so whether it is in its
certified condition. To facilitate this
identification in Phase 1, EPA adopted
labeling provisions for tractors that
included several items. The Phase 1
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tractor label must include the
manufacturer, vehicle identifier such as
the Vehicle Identification Number
(VIN), vehicle family, regulatory
subcategory, date of manufacture,
compliance statements, and emission
control system identifiers (see 40 CFR
1037.135). In Phase 1, the emission
control system identifiers are limited to
vehicle speed limiters, idle reduction
technology, tire rolling resistance, some
aerodynamic components, and other
innovative and advanced technologies.
The number of proposed emission
control systems for greenhouse gas
emissions in Phase 2 has increased
significantly. For example, the engine,
transmission, drive axle ratio,
accessories, tire radius, wind averaged
drag, predictive cruise control, and
automatic tire inflation system are
controls which can be evaluated oncycle in Phase 2 (i.e. these technologies’
performance can now be input to GEM),
but could not be in Phase 1. Due to the
complexity in determining greenhouse
gas emissions as proposed in Phase 2,
the agencies do not believe that we can
unambiguously determine whether or
not a vehicle is in a certified condition
through simply comparing information
that could be made available on an
emission control label with the
components installed on a vehicle.
Therefore, EPA proposes to remove the
requirement to include the emission
control system identifiers required in 40
CFR 1037.135(c)(6) and in Appendix III
to 40 CFR part 1037 from the emission
control labels for vehicles certified to
the Phase 2 standards. However, the
agencies may finalize requirements to
maintain some label content to facilitate
a limited visual inspection of key
vehicle parameters that can be readily
observed. Such requirements may be
very similar to the labeling requirements
from the Phase 1 rulemaking, though we
would want to more carefully consider
the list of technologies that would allow
for the most effective inspection. We
request comment on an appropriate list
of candidate technologies that would
properly balance the need to limit label
content with the interest in providing
the most useful information for
inspectors to confirm that vehicles have
been properly built. We are not
proposing to modify the existing
emission control labels for tractors
certified for MYs 2014–2020 (Phase 1)
CO2 standards.
Under the agencies’ existing
authorities, manufacturers must provide
detailed build information for a specific
vehicle upon our request. Our
expectation is that this information
should be available to us via email or
other similar electronic communication
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on a same-day basis, or within 24 hours
of a request at most. We request
comment on any practical limitations in
promptly providing this information.
We also request comment on
approaches that would minimize
burden for manufacturers to respond to
requests for vehicle build information
and would expedite an authorized
compliance inspector’s visual
inspection. For example, the agencies
have started to explore ideas that would
provide inspectors with an electronic
method to identify vehicles and access
on-line databases that would list all of
the engine-specific and vehicle-specific
emissions control system information.
We believe that electronic and Internet
technology exists today for using scan
tools to read a bar code or radio
frequency identification tag affixed to a
vehicle that would then lead to secure
on-line access to a database of
manufacturers’ detailed vehicle and
engine build information. Our
exploratory work on these ideas has
raised questions about the level of effort
that would be required to develop,
implement and maintain an information
technology system to provide inspectors
real-time access to this information. We
have also considered questions about
privacy and data security. We request
comment on the concept of electronic
labels and database access, including
any available information on similar
systems that exist today and on burden
estimates and approaches that could
address concerns about privacy and data
security. Based on new information that
we receive, we may consider initiating
a separate rulemaking effort to propose
and request comment on implementing
such an approach.
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(g) End of Year Reports
In the Phase 1 program,
manufacturers participating in the ABT
program provided 90 day and 270 day
reports to EPA and NHTSA after the end
of the model year. The agencies adopted
two reports for the initial program to
help manufacturers become familiar
with the reporting process. For the HD
Phase 2 program, the agencies propose
to simplify reporting such that
manufacturers would only be required
to submit the final report 90 days after
the end of the model year with the
potential to obtain approval for a delay
up to 30 days. We are accordingly
proposing to eliminate the end of year
report, which represents a preliminary
set of ABT figures for the preceding
year. We welcome comment on this
proposed revision.
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(h) Special Compliance Provisions
F. Flexibility Provisions
In Phase 2, the agencies propose to
consider the performance of the engine,
transmission, and drivetrain in
determining compliance with the Phase
2 tractor standards. With the inclusion
of the engine’s performance in the
vehicle compliance, EPA proposes to
modify the prohibition to introducing
into U.S. commerce a tractor containing
an engine not certified for use in tractor
(see proposed 40 CFR 1037.601(a)(1)). In
Phase 2, we no longer see the need to
prohibit the use of vocational engines in
tractors because the performance of the
engine would be appropriately reflected
in GEM. We welcome comment on
removing this prohibition.
The agencies also propose to change
the compliance process for
manufacturers seeking to use the offroad exclusion. During the Phase 1
program, manufacturers realized that
contacting the agencies in advance of
the model year was necessary to
determine whether vehicles would
qualify for exemption and need
approved certificates of conformity. The
agencies found that the petition process
allowed at the end of the model year
was not necessary and that an informal
approval during the precertification
period was more effective. Therefore,
NHTSA is proposing to remove its offroad petitioning process in 49 CFR
535.8 and EPA is proposing to add
requirements for informal approvals in
40 CFR 1037.610.
EPA and NHTSA are proposing two
flexibility provisions specifically for
heavy-duty tractor manufacturers in
Phase 2. These are an averaging,
banking and trading program for CO2
emissions and fuel consumption credits,
as well as provisions for credits for offcycle technologies which are not
included as inputs to the GEM. Credits
generated under these provisions can
only be used within the same averaging
set which generated the credit.
The agencies are also proposing to
remove or modify several Phase 1
interim provisions, as described below.
(i) Chassis Dynamometer Testing
Requirement
The agencies foresee the need to
continue to track the progress of the
Phase 2 program throughout its
implementation. As discussed in
Section II, the agencies expect to
evaluate the overall performance of
tractors with the GEM results provided
by manufacturers through the end of
year reports. However, we also need to
continue to have confidence in our
simulation tool, GEM, as the vehicle
technologies continue to evolve.
Therefore, EPA proposes that the
manufacturers conduct annual chassis
dynamometer testing of three sleeper
cabs tractor and two day cab tractor and
provide the data and the GEM result
from each of these two tractor
configurations to EPA (see 40 CFR
1037.665). We request comment on the
costs and efficacy of this data
submission requirement. We emphasize
that this program would not be used for
compliance or enforcement purposes.
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(1) Averaging, Banking, and Trading
(ABT) Program
Averaging, banking, and trading of
emission credits have been an important
part of many EPA mobile source
programs under CAA Title II, and the
NHTSA light-duty CAFE program. The
agencies also included this flexibility in
the HD Phase 1 program. ABT
provisions are useful because they can
help to address many potential issues of
technological feasibility and lead-time,
as well as considerations of cost. They
provide manufacturers flexibilities that
assist in the efficient development and
implementation of new technologies
and therefore enable new technologies
to be implemented at a more aggressive
pace than without ABT. A welldesigned ABT program can also provide
important environmental and energy
security benefits by increasing the speed
at which new technologies can be
implemented. Between MYs 2013 and
2014 all four tractor manufacturers are
taking advantage of the ABT provisions
in the Phase 1 program. NHTSA and
EPA propose to carry-over the Phase 1
ABT provisions for tractors into Phase 2.
The agencies propose to continue the
five year credit life and three year
deficit carry-over provisions from Phase
1 (40 CFR 1037.740(c) and 1037.745).
Please see additional discussion in
Section I.C.1.b. Although we are not
proposing any additional restrictions on
the use of Phase 1 credits, we are
requesting comment on this issue. Early
indications suggest that positive market
reception to the Phase 1 technologies
could lead to manufacturers
accumulating credits surpluses that
could be quite large at the beginning of
the proposed Phase 2 program. This
appears especially likely for tractors.
The agencies are specifically requesting
comment on the likelihood of this
happening, and whether any regulatory
changes would be appropriate. For
example, should the agencies limit the
amount of credits than could be carried
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over from Phase 1 or limit them to the
first year or two of the Phase 2 program?
Also, if we determine that large
surpluses are likely, how should that
factor into our decision on the
feasibility of more stringent standards in
MY 2021?
We welcome comments on these
proposed flexibilities and are interested
in information that may indicate doing
as proposed could distort the heavyduty vehicle market.
ebenthall on DSK3VPTVN1PROD with MISCELLANEOUS
(2) Off-Cycle Technology Credits
In Phase 1, the agencies adopted an
emissions and fuel consumption credit
generating opportunity that applied to
innovative technologies that reduce fuel
consumption and CO2 emissions. These
technologies were required to not be in
common use with heavy-duty vehicles
before the 2010MY and not reflected in
the GEM simulation tool (i.e., the
benefits are ‘‘off-cycle’’). See 76 FR
57253. The agencies propose to largely
continue, but redesignate the Phase 1
innovative technology program as part
of the off-cycle program for Phase 2. In
other words, beginning in 2021 MY all
technologies that are not fully
accounted for in the GEM simulation
tool, or by compliance dynamometer
testing could be considered off-cycle,
including those technologies that may
have been considered innovative
technologies in Phase 1 of the program.
The agencies propose to maintain the
requirement that, in order for a
manufacturer to receive credits for
Phase 2, the off-cycle technology would
still need to meet the requirement that
it was not in common use prior to MY
2010. For additional information on the
treatment of off-cycle technologies see
Section I.C.1.c.
The agencies are proposing a split
process for handling off-cycle
technologies in Phase 2. First, there is
a set of predefined off-cycle
technologies that are entering the
market today, but could be fullyrecognized in our proposed HD Phase 2
certification procedures. Examples of
such technologies include predictive
cruise control, 6x2 axles, axle
lubricants, automated tire inflation
systems, and air conditioning efficiency
improvements. For these technologies,
the agencies propose to define the
effectiveness value of these technologies
similar to the approach taken in the
MY2017–2025 light-duty rule (see 77 FR
62832–62840 (October 15, 2012)). These
default effectiveness values could be
used as valid inputs to Phase 2 GEM.
The proposed effectiveness value of
each technology is discussed above in
Section III.D.2.
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The agencies also recognize that there
are emerging technologies today that are
being developed, but would not be
accounted for in the GEM inputs,
therefore would be considered off-cycle.
These technologies could include
systems such as efficient steering
systems, cooling fan optimization, and
further tractor-trailer integration. These
off-cycle technologies could include
known, commercialized technologies if
they are not yet widely utilized in a
particular heavy-duty sector
subcategory. Any credits for these
technologies would need to be based on
real-world fuel consumption and GHG
reductions that can be measured with
verifiable test methods using
representative driving conditions
typical of the engine or vehicle
application.
The agencies propose that the
approval for Phase 1 innovative
technology credits (approved prior to
2021 MY) would be carried into the
Phase 2 program on a limited basis for
those technologies where the benefit is
not accounted for in the Phase 2 test
procedure. Therefore, the manufacturers
would not be required to request new
approval for any innovative credits
carried into the off-cycle program, but
would have to demonstrate the new
cycle does not account for these
improvements beginning in the 2021
MY. The agencies believe this is
appropriate because technologies, such
as those related to the transmission or
driveline, may no longer be ‘‘off-cycle’’
because of the addition of these
technologies into the Phase 2 version of
GEM. The agencies also seek comments
on whether off-cycle technologies in the
Phase 2 program should be limited by
infrequent common use and by what
model years, if any. We also seek
comments on an appropriate
penetration rate for a technology not to
be considered in common use.
As in Phase 1, the agencies are
proposing to continue to provide two
paths for approval of the test procedure
to measure the CO2 emissions and fuel
consumption reductions of an off-cycle
technology used in the HD tractor. See
proposed 40 CFR 1037.610 and 49 CFR
535.7. The first path would not require
a public approval process of the test
method. A manufacturer could use ‘‘preapproved’’ test methods for HD vehicles
including the A-to-B chassis testing,
powerpack testing or on-road testing. A
manufacturer may also use any
developed test procedure that has
known quantifiable benefits. A test plan
detailing the testing methodology would
be required to be approved prior to
collecting any test data. The agencies
are also proposing to continue the
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second path, which includes a public
approval process of any testing method
that could have questionable benefits
(i.e., an unknown usage rate for a
technology). Furthermore, the agencies
are proposing to modify their provisions
to clarify what documentation must be
submitted for approval, which would
align them with provisions in 40 CFR
86.1869–12. NHTSA and EPA are also
proposing to prohibit credits from
technologies addressed by any of
NHTSA’s crash avoidance safety
rulemakings (i.e., congestion
management systems). See 77 FR 62733
(discussing similar issues in the context
of the light-duty fuel economy and
greenhouse gas reduction standards).
We welcome recommendations on how
to improve or streamline the off-cycle
technology approval process.
(3) Post Useful Life Modifications
Under 40 CFR part 1037, it is
generally prohibited for any person to
remove or render inoperative any
emission control device installed to
comply with the requirements of part
1037. However, in 40 CFR 1037.655
EPA clarifies that certain vehicle
modifications are allowed after a vehicle
reaches the end of its regulatory useful
life. This section applies for all vehicles
subject to 40 CFR part 1037 and would
thus apply for trailers regulated in Phase
2. EPA is proposing to continue this
provision and requests comment on it.
This section states (as examples) that
it is generally allowable to remove
tractor roof fairings after the end of the
vehicle’s useful life if the vehicle will
no longer be used primarily to pull box
trailers, or to remove other fairings if the
vehicle will no longer be used
significantly on highways with vehicle
speed of 55 miles per hour or higher.
More generally, this section clarifies
that owners may modify a vehicle for
the purpose of reducing emissions,
provided they have a reasonable
technical basis for knowing that such
modification will not increase emissions
of any other pollutant. This essentially
requires the owner to have information
that would lead an engineer or other
person familiar with engine and vehicle
design and function to reasonably
believe that the modifications will not
increase emissions of any regulated
pollutant. Thus, this provision does not
provide a blanket allowance for
modifications after the useful life.
This section also makes clear that no
person may ever disable a vehicle speed
limiter prior to its expiration point, or
remove aerodynamic fairings from
tractors that are used primarily to pull
box trailers on highways. It is also clear
that this allowance does not apply with
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respect to engine modifications or
recalibrations.
This section does not apply with
respect to modifications that occur
within the useful life period, other than
to note that many such modifications to
the vehicle during the useful life and to
the engine at any time are presumed to
violate 42 U.S.C. 7522(a)(3)(A). EPA
notes, however, that this is merely a
presumption, and would not prohibit
modifications during the useful life
where the owner clearly has a
reasonable technical basis for knowing
that the modifications would not cause
the vehicle to exceed any applicable
standard.
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(4) Other Interim Provisions
In HD Phase 1, EPA adopted
provisions to delay the onboard
diagnostics (OBD) requirements for
heavy-duty hybrid powertrains (see 40
CFR 86.010–18(q)). This provision
delayed full OBD requirements for
hybrids until 2016 and 2017 model
years. In discussion with manufacturers
during the development of Phase 2, the
agencies have learned that meeting the
on-board diagnostic requirements for
criteria pollutant engine certification
continues to be a potential impediment
to adoption of hybrid systems. See
Section XIV.A.1 for a discussion of
regulatory changes proposed to reduce
the non-GHG certification burden for
engines paired with hybrid powertrain
systems.
(5) Phase 1 Flexibilities Not Proposed
for Phase 2
The Phase 1 advanced technology
credits were adopted to promote the
implementation of advanced
technologies, such as hybrid
powertrains, Rankine cycle engines, allelectric vehicles, and fuel cell vehicles
(see 40 CFR 1037.150(i)). As the
agencies stated in the Phase 1 final rule,
the Phase 1 standards were not
premised on the use of advanced
technologies but we expected these
advanced technologies to be an
important part of the Phase 2
rulemaking (76 FR 57133, September 15,
2011). The proposed HD Phase 2 heavyduty engine and tractor standards are
premised on the use of Rankine-cycle
engines, therefore the agencies believe it
is no longer appropriate to provide extra
credit for this technology. While the
agencies have not premised the
proposed HD Phase 2 tractor standards
on hybrid powertrains, fuel cells, or
electric vehicles, we also foresee some
limited use of these technologies in
2021 and beyond. Therefore, we
propose to not provide advanced
technology credits in Phase 2 for any
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technology, but we welcome comments
on the need for such incentive.
Also in Phase 1, the agencies adopted
early credits to create incentives for
manufacturers to introduce more
efficient engines and vehicles earlier
than they otherwise would have
planned to do (see 40 CFR 1037.150(a)).
The agencies are not proposing to
extend this flexibility to Phase 2
because the ABT program from Phase 1
will be available to manufacturers in
2020 model year and this would
displace the need for early credits.
IV. Trailers
As mentioned in Section III, trailers
pulled by Class 7 and 8 tractors
(together considered ‘‘tractor-trailers’’)
account for approximately two-thirds of
the heavy-duty sector’s total CO2
emissions and fuel consumption.
Because neither trailers nor the tractors
that pull them are useful by themselves,
it is the combination of the tractor and
the trailer that forms the useful vehicle.
Although trailers do not directly
generate exhaust emissions or consume
fuels (except for the refrigeration units
on refrigerated trailers), their designs
and operation nevertheless contribute
substantially to the CO2 emissions and
diesel fuel consumption of the tractors
pulling them. See also Section I.E (1)
and (2) above.
The agencies are proposing standards
for trailers specifically designed to be
drawn by Class 7 and 8 tractors when
coupled to the tractor’s fifth wheel. The
agencies are not proposing standards for
trailers designed to be drawn by
vehicles other than tractors, and those
that are coupled to vehicles with pintle
hooks or hitches instead of a fifth wheel.
These proposed standards are expressed
as CO2 and fuel consumption standards,
and would apply to each trailer with
respect to the emissions and fuel
consumption that would be expected for
a specific standard type of tractor
pulling such a trailer. Note that this
approach is discussed in more detail
later. Nevertheless, EPA and NHTSA
believe it is appropriate to establish
standards for trailers separately from
tractors because they are separately
manufactured by distinct companies;
the agencies are not aware of any
manufacturers that currently assemble
both the finished tractor and the trailer.
A. Summary of Trailer Consideration in
Phase 1
In the Phase 1 program, the agencies
did not regulate trailers, but discussed
how we might do so in the future (see
76 FR 57362). We chose not to regulate
trailers at that time, primarily because of
the lack of a proposed test procedure, as
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40253
well as the technical and policy issues
at that time. The agencies also noted the
large number of small businesses in this
industry, the possibility that regulations
would substantially impact these small
businesses, and the agencies’
consequent obligations under the Small
Business Regulatory Enforcement
Fairness Act.202 However, the agencies
did indicate the potential CO2 and fuel
consumption benefits of including
trailers in the program and we
committed to consider establishing
standards for trailers in future
rulemakings.
In the Phase 1 proposal, the agencies
solicited general comments on
controlling CO2 emissions and fuel
consumption through future trailer
regulations (see 75 FR 74345–74351).
Although we neither proposed nor
finalized trailer regulations at that time,
the agencies have considered those
comments in developing this proposal.
This notice proposes the first EPA
regulations covering trailer
manufacturers for CO2 emissions (or any
other emissions), and the first fuel
consumption regulations by NHTSA for
these manufacturers. The agencies
intend for this program to be a unified
national program so that when a trailer
model complies with EPA’s standards it
will also comply with NHTSA’s
standards.
B. The Trailer Industry
(1) Industry Characterization
The trailer industry encompasses a
wide variety of trailer applications and
designs. Among these are box trailers
(dry vans and refrigerated vans of all
sizes) and ‘‘non-box’’ trailers, including
platform (sometimes called ‘‘flatbed’’),
tanker, container chassis, bulk, dump,
grain, and many specialized types of
trailers, such as car carriers, pole
trailers, and logging trailers. Most
trailers are designed for predominant
use on paved streets, roads, and
highways (called ‘‘highway trailers’’ for
purposes of this proposed rule). A
relatively small number of trailers are
designed for dedicated use in logging
and mining operations or for use in
202 The Regulatory Flexibility Act (RFA), as
amended by the Small Business Regulatory
Enforcement Fairness Act (SBREFA), requires
agencies to account for economic impacts of all
rules that may have a significant impact on a
substantial number of small businesses and in
addition contains provisions specially applicable to
EPA requiring a multi-agency pre-proposal process
involving outreach and consultation with
representatives of potentially affected small
businesses. See https://www.epa.gov/rfa/ for more
information. Note that for this Phase 2 proposal,
EPA has completed a Small Business Advocacy
Review panel process that included small trailer
manufacturers, as discussed in XIV.C below.
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applications that we expect would
involve little or no time on paved
roadways. A more detailed description
of the characteristics that distinguish
these trailers is included in Section
IV.C.(5).
The trailer manufacturing industry is
very competitive, and manufacturers are
highly responsive to their customers’
diverse demands. The wide range of
trailer designs and features reflects the
broad variety of customer needs, chief
among them typically being the ability
to maximize the amount of freight the
trailer can transport. Other design goals
reflect the numerous, more specialized
customer needs.
Box trailers are the most common
type of trailer and are made in many
different lengths, generally ranging from
28 feet to 53 feet. While all have a
rectangular shape, they can vary widely
in basic construction design (internal
volume and weight), materials (steel,
fiberglass composites, aluminum, and
wood) and the number and
configuration of axles (usually two axles
closely spaced, but number and spacing
of axles can be greater). Box trailer
designs may also include additional
features, such as one or more side doors,
out-swinging or roll-up rear doors, side
or rear lift gates, and numerous types of
undercarriage accessories.
Non-box trailers are uniquely
designed to transport a specific type of
freight. Platform trailers carry cargo that
may not be easily contained within or
loaded and unloaded into a box trailer,
such as large, nonuniform equipment or
machine components. Tank trailers are
often pressure-tight enclosures designed
to carry liquids, gases or bulk, dry solids
and semi-solids. There are also a
number of other specialized trailers
such as grain, dump, automobile hauler,
livestock trailers, construction and
heavy-hauling trailers.
Chapter 1 of the Draft RIA includes a
more thorough characterization of the
trailer industry. The agencies have
considered the variety of trailer designs
and applications in developing the
proposed CO2 emissions and fuel
consumption standards for trailers.
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(2) Historical Context for Proposed
Trailer Provisions
(a) SmartWay Program
EPA’s voluntary SmartWay Transport
Partnership program encourages
businesses to take actions that reduce
fuel consumption and CO2 emissions
while cutting costs. See Section I.A.2.f
above. SmartWay staff work with the
shipping, logistics, and carrier
communities to identify low carbon
strategies and technologies across their
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transportation supply chains. It is a
voluntary, fleet-targeted program that
provides an objective ranking of a fleet’s
freight efficiency relative to its
competitors. SmartWay Partners commit
to adopting fuel-saving practices and
technologies relative to a baseline year
as well as tracking their progress.
EPA’s SmartWay program has
accelerated the availability and market
penetration of advanced, fuel efficient
technologies and operational practices.
In conjunction with the SmartWay
Partners Program, EPA established a
testing, verification, and designation
program, the SmartWay Technology
Program, to help freight companies
identify the equipment, technologies,
and strategies that save fuel and lower
emissions. SmartWay verifies the
performance of aerodynamic equipment
and low rolling resistance tires and
maintains a list of verified technologies
on its Web site. The trailer aerodynamic
technologies verified are grouped in
bins that represent one percent, four
percent, or five percent fuel savings
relative to a typical long-haul tractortrailer at 65-mph cruise conditions.
Historically, use of verified
aerodynamic devices totaling at least
five percent fuel savings, along with
verified tires, qualifies a 53-foot dry van
trailer for the ‘‘SmartWay Trailer’’
designation. In 2014, EPA expanded the
program to qualify trailers as
‘‘SmartWay Elite’’ if they use verified
tires and aerodynamic equipment
providing nine percent or greater fuel
savings. The 2014 updates also
expanded the SmartWay-designated
trailer eligibility to include 53-foot
refrigerated van trailers in addition to
53-foot dry van trailers.
The SmartWay Technology Program
continues to improve the technical
quality of data that EPA and
stakeholders need for verification. EPA
bases its SmartWay verifications on
common industry test methods using
SmartWay-specified testing protocols.
Historically, SmartWay’s aerodynamic
equipment verification was performed
using the SAE J1321 test procedure,
which measures fuel consumption as
the test vehicle drives laps around a test
track. Under SmartWay’s 2014 updates,
EPA expanded its trailer designation
and equipment verification programs to
allow additional testing options. The
updates included a new, more stringent
2014 track test protocol based on SAE’s
2012 update to its SAE J1321 test
method,203 as well as protocols for wind
203 SAE International, Fuel Consumption Test
Procedure—Type II. SAE Standard J1321. Revised
2012–02–06. Available at: https://standards.sae.org/
j1321_201202/.
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tunnel, coastdown, and possibly
computational fluid dynamics (CFD)
approaches. These new protocols are
based on stakeholder input, the latest
industry standards (i.e., 2012 versions of
the SAE fuel consumption and wind
tunnel test 204 methods), EPA’s own
testing and research, and lessons
learned from years of implementing
technology verification programs. Wind
tunnel, coastdown, and CFD testing
produce values for aerodynamic drag
improvements in terms of coefficient of
drag (CD), which is then related to
projected fuel savings using a
mathematical curve.205
SmartWay verifies tires based on test
data submitted by tire manufacturers
demonstrating the coefficient of rolling
resistance (CRR) of their tires using
either the SAE J1269 or ISO 28580 test
methods. These verified tires have
rolling resistance targets for each axle
position on the tractor-trailer.
SmartWay-verified trailer tires achieve a
CRR of 5.1 kg/metric ton or less on the
ISO28580 test method. An operator who
replaces the trailer tires with SmartWayverified tires can expect fuel
consumption savings of one percent or
more at a 65-mph cruise. Operators who
apply SmartWay-verified tires on both
the trailer and tractor can achieve three
percent fuel consumption savings at 65mph.
Over the last decade, SmartWay
partners have demonstrated
measureable fuel consumption benefits
by adding aerodynamic features and low
rolling resistance tires to their 53-foot
dry van trailers. To date, SmartWay has
verified over 70 technologies, including
nine packages from five manufacturers
that have received the Elite designation.
The SmartWay Transport program has
worked with over 3,000 partners, the
majority of which are trucking fleets,
and broadly throughout the supplychain industry, since 2004. These
relationships, combined with the
Technology Program’s extensive
involvement in the HD vehicle
technology industry, have provided EPA
with significant experience in freight
fuel efficiency. Furthermore, the more
than 10-year duration of the voluntary
SmartWay Transport Partnership has
resulted in significant fleet and
manufacturer experience with
innovating and deploying technologies
204 SAE International. Wind Tunnel Test
Procedure for Trucks and Buses. SAE Standard
J1252. Revised 2012–07–16. Available at: https://
standards.sae.org/j1252_201207/.
205 McCallen, R., et al. Progress in Reducing
Aerodynamic Drag for Higher Efficiency of Heavy
Duty Trucks (Class 7–8). SAE Technical Paper.
1999–01–2238.
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that reduce CO2 emissions and fuel
consumption.
(b) California Tractor-Trailer
Greenhouse Gas Regulation
The state of California passed the
Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006
(Assembly Bill 32, or AB32), enacting
the state’s 2020 greenhouse gas
emissions reduction goal into law.
Pursuant to this Act, the California Air
Resource Board (CARB) was required to
begin developing early actions to reduce
GHG emissions. As a part of a larger
effort to comply with AB32, the
California Air Resource Board issued a
regulation entitled ‘‘Heavy-Duty
Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction
Regulation’’ in December 2008.
This regulation reduces GHG
emissions by requiring improvement in
the efficiency of heavy-duty tractors and
53 foot or longer dry and refrigerated
box trailers that operate in California.206
The program is being phased in between
2010 and 2020. Small fleets have been
allowed special compliance
opportunities to phase in the retrofits of
their existing trailer fleets through 2017.
The regulation requires affected trailer
fleet owners to either use SmartWayverified trailers or to retrofit trailers
with SmartWay-verified technologies.
The efficiency improvements are
achieved through the use of
aerodynamic equipment and low rolling
resistance tires on both the tractor and
trailer. EPA has granted a waiver for this
California program.207
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(c) NHTSA Safety-Related Regulations
for Trailers and Tires
NHTSA regulates new trailer safety
through regulations. Table IV–1 lists the
current regulations in place related to
trailers. Trailer manufacturers will
continue to be required to meet current
safety regulations for the trailers they
produce. We welcome any comments on
additional regulations that are not
included and particularly those that
may be incompatible with the
regulations outlined in this proposal.
FMVSS Nos. 223 and 224 208 require
installation of rear guard protection on
206 Recently, in December 2013, ARB adopted
regulations that establish its own parallel Phase 1
program with standards consistent with the EPA
Phase 1 tractor standards. On December 5, 2014
California’s Office of Administrative Law approved
ARB’s adoption of the Phase 1 standards, with an
effective date of December 5, 2014.
207 See EPA’s waiver of CARB’s heavy-duty
tractor-trailer greenhouse gas regulation applicable
to new 2011 through 2013 model year Class 8
tractors equipped with integrated sleeper berths
(sleeper-cab tractors) and 2011 and subsequent
model year dry-can and refrigerated-van trailers that
are pulled by such tractors on California highways
at 79 FR 46256 (August 7, 2014).
208 49 CFR 571.223, 224.
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individual trailer manufacturers, trailer
aerodynamic device manufacturing
companies, and trailer tire
manufacturers, as well as visited an
aerodynamic wind tunnel test facility
and two independent tire testing
facilities. The agencies consulted with
representatives from California Air
Resources Board, the International
Council on Clean Transportation, the
North American Council for Freight
TABLE IV—1 CURRENT NHTSA STAT- Efficiency, and several environmental
UTES AND REGULATIONS RELATED NGOs.
In addition to these informal
TO TRAILERS
meetings, and as noted above, EPA also
conducted several outreach meetings
Reference
Title
with representatives from small
business trailer manufacturers as
49 CFR 565 ... Vehicle Identification Number (VIN) Requirements.
required under section 609(b) of the
49 CFR 566 ... Manufacturer Identification.
Regulatory Flexibility Act (RFA) and
49 CFR 567 ... Certification.
amended by the Small Business
49 CFR 568 ... Vehicles Manufactured in
Regulatory Enforcement Fairness Act of
Two or More Stages.
1996 (SBREFA). EPA convened a Small
49 CFR 569 ... Regrooved Tires.
49 CFR 571 ... Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Business Advocacy Review (SBAR)
Panel, and additional information
Standards.
regarding the findings and
49 CFR 573 ... Defect and Noncompliance
Responsibility and Rerecommendations of the Panel are
ports.
available in Section XIV below and in
49 CFR 574 ... Tire Identification and Recthe Panel’s final report.211 EPA worked
ordkeeping.
with NHTSA to propose flexibilities in
49 CFR 575 ... Consumer Information.
response to EPA’s SBAR Panel (as
49 CFR 576 ... Record Retention.
outlined in Section IV. F(6)(f) with more
detail provided in Chapter 12 of the
(d) Additional DOT Regulations Related draft RIA). We welcome comments from
to Trailers
all entities and the public to all aspects
In addition to NHTSA’s regulations,
of this proposal.
DOT’s Federal Highway Administration
C. Proposed Phase 2 Trailer Standards
(FHWA) regulates the weight and
This proposed rule proposes, for the
dimensions of motor vehicles on the
first time, a set of CO2 emission and fuel
National Network.209 FHWA’s
consumption standards for
regulations limit states from setting
manufacturers of new trailers that
truck size and weight limits beyond
would phase in over a period of nine
certain ranges for vehicles used on the
years and continue to reduce CO2
National Network. Specifically, vehicle
emissions and fuel consumption in the
weight and truck tractor-semitrailer
years to follow. The proposed standards
length and width are limited by
are expressed as overall CO2 emissions
FHWA.210 EPA and NHTSA do not
and fuel consumption performance
anticipate any conflicts between
FHWA’s regulations and those proposed standards considering the trailer as an
integral part of the tractor-trailer
in this rulemaking.
vehicle.
(3) Agencies’ Outreach in Developing
The agencies are proposing trailer
This Proposal
standards that we believe well
In developing this proposed rule, EPA implement our respective statutory
obligations. The agencies believe that a
and NHTSA staff met and consulted
proposed set of standards with similar
with a wide range of organizations that
stringencies, but less lead-time (referred
have an interest in trailer regulations.
to as ‘‘Alternative 4’’ and discussed in
Staff from both agencies met
more detail later) has the potential to be
representatives of the Truck Trailer
Manufacturers Association, the National the maximum feasible alternative within
the meaning of section 32902 (k) of
Trailer Dealers Association, and the
EISA, and appropriate under EPA’s
American Trucking Association,
including their Fuel Efficiency Advisory CAA authority (sections 202 (a)(1) and
(2)). However, based on the evidence
Committee and their Technology and
Maintenance Council. We also met with
211 Final Report of the Small Business Advocacy
and visited the facilities of several
trailers. The definition of rear extremity
of the trailer in 223 limits installation of
rear fairings to a specified zone behind
the trailer. The agencies request
comment on any issues associated with
installing potential boat tails or other
rear aerodynamic fairings that would be
more effective than current designs,
given the current definition of trailer
rear extremity in FMVSS 223.
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210 23
Review Panel on EPA’s Planned Proposed Rule:
Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Fuel Efficiency
Standards for Medium- and Heavy-Duty Engines
and Vehicles: Phase 2, January 15, 2015.
CFR 658.9.
CFR part 658.
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currently before us, EPA and NHTSA
have outstanding questions regarding
relative risks and benefits of Alternative
4 due to the timeframe envisioned by
that alternative. The proposed
alternative (referred to as ‘‘Alternative
3’’ and discussed in more detail later) is
generally designed to achieve the levels
of fuel consumption and GHG reduction
that Alternative 4 would achieve, but
with several years of additional leadtime. Put another way, the Alternative 3
standards would result in the same
stringency as the Alternative 4
standards, but several years later,
meaning that manufacturers could, in
theory apply new technology at a more
gradual pace and with greater flexibility.
Additional lead-time will also provide
for a more gradual implementation of
full compliance program, which could
be especially helpful for this newlyregulated trailer industry. It is possible
that the agencies could adopt, in full or
in part, stringencies from Alternative 4
in the final rule. The agencies seek
comment on the lead-time and market
penetration in these alternatives.
The agencies are not proposing
standards for CO2 emissions and fuel
consumption from the transport
refrigeration units (TRUs) used on
refrigerated box trailers. Additionally,
EPA is not proposing standards for
hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) emissions
from TRUs. See Section IV.C.(4)
It is worth noting that the proposed
standards for box trailers are based in
part on the expectation that the
proposed program would allow
emissions averaging. However, as
discussed in Section IV.F. below, given
the specific structure and competitive
nature of the trailer industry, we request
comment on the advantages and
disadvantages of implementing the
proposed standards without an
averaging program. Commenters
addressing the stringency of the
proposed standards are encouraged to
address stringency in the context of
compliance programs with and without
averaging.
(1) Trailer Designs Covered by This
Proposed Rule
As described previously, the trailer
industry produces many different trailer
designs for many different applications.
The agencies are proposing standards
for a majority of these trailers. Note that
these proposed regulations apply to
trailers designed for being drawn by a
tractor when coupled to the tractor’s
fifth wheel. As described in detail in
Section IV.C below, the agencies are
proposing standards that would phase
in between MY 2018 and 2027; the
NHTSA standards would be voluntary
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until MY 2021. The proposed standards
would apply to most types of trailers.
For most box trailers, these standards
would be based on the use of various
technologies to improve aerodynamic
performance, and on improved tire
efficiency through low rolling resistance
tires and use of automatic tire inflation
(ATI) systems. As discussed below, the
agencies have identified some trailers
with characteristics that limit the
aerodynamics that can be applied, and
are proposing reduced the stringencies
for those trailer types. As described in
Sections IV.D.(1)(d) and (2)(d) below,
although manufacturers can reduce
trailer weight to reduce fuel costs by
reducing trailer weight, these standards
are not predicated on weight reduction
for the industry.
The most comprehensive set of
proposed requirements would apply to
long box trailers, which include
refrigerated and non-refrigerated (dry)
vans. Long box trailers are the largest
trailer category and are typically paired
with high roof cab tractors that have
high annual vehicle miles traveled
(VMT) and high average speeds, and
therefore offer the greatest potential for
CO2 and fuel consumption reductions.
Many of the aerodynamic and tire
technologies considered for long box
trailers in this proposal are similar to
those used in EPA’s SmartWay program
and required by California’s Heavy-Duty
Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction
Regulation. Many manufacturers and
operators of box trailers have experience
with these CO2- and fuel consumptionreducing technologies. In addition to
SmartWay partners and those fleets
affected by the California regulation,
many operators also seek such
technologies in response to high fuel
prices and the prospect of improved fuel
efficiency. As a result, more data about
the performance of these technologies
exist for long box trailers than for other
trailer types. Short box vans do not have
the benefit of programs such as
SmartWay to provide an incentive for
development of and a reliable
evaluation and promotion of CO2- and
fuel consumption-reducing technologies
for their trailers. In addition, short box
trailers are more frequently used in
short-haul and urban operations, which
may limit the potential effectiveness of
these technologies. As such, EPA is
proposing less stringent requirements
for manufacturers of short box trailers.
Some trailer designs include features
that can affect the practicality or the
effectiveness of devices that
manufacturers may consider to lower
their CO2 emissions and fuel
consumption. We are proposing to
recognize box trailers that are restricted
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from using aerodynamic devices in one
location on the trailer as ‘‘partial-aero’’
box trailers.212 The proposed standards
for these trailers are based on the
proposed standards for full-aero boxtrailers, but would be less stringent than
when the program is fully phased in.
We propose that box trailers that have
work-performing devices in two
locations such that they inhibit the use
of all practical aerodynamic devices be
considered ‘‘non-aero’’ box trailers in
this proposal. The proposed standards
for non-aero box trailers are predicated
on the use of tire technologies—lower
rolling resistance tires and ATI. We are
proposing similar standards for non-box
trailers (including applications such as
dump trailers and agricultural trailers
that are designed to be used both on and
off the highway).
We are proposing to completely
exclude several types of trailers from
this trailer program. These excluded
trailers would include those designed
for dedicated in-field operations related
to logging and mining. In addition, we
are proposing to exclude heavy-haul
trailers and trailers the primary function
of which is performed while they are
stationary. For all of these excluded
trailers, manufacturers would not have
any regulatory requirements under this
program, and would not be subject to
the proposed trailer compliance
requirements. We seek comment on the
appropriateness of excluding these
types of trailers from the proposed
trailer program and whether other trailer
designs should be excluded. Section IV.
C. (5) discusses these trailer types we
propose to exclude and the physical
characteristics that would define these
trailers.
In summary, the agencies are
proposing separate standards for ten
trailer subcategories:
—Long box (longer than 50 feet 213) dry
vans
—Long box (longer than 50 feet)
refrigerated vans
—Short box (50 feet and shorter) dry
vans
—Short box (50 feet and shorter)
refrigerated vans
—Partial-aero long box dry vans
—Partial-aero long box refrigerated vans
—Partial-aero short box dry vans
212 Examples of types of work-performing
components, equipment, or designs that the
agencies might consider as warranting recognition
as partial-aero or non-aero trailers include side or
end lift gates, belly boxes, pull-out platforms or
steps for side door access, and drop-deck designs.
See 40 CFR 1037.107 and 49 CFR 535.5(e).
213 Most long trailers are 53 feet in length; we are
proposing a cut-point of 50 feet to avoid an
unintended incentive for an OEM to slightly
shorten a trailer design in order to avoid the new
regulatory requirements.
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—Partial-aero short box refrigerated
vans
—Non-aero box vans (all lengths of dry
and refrigerated vans)
—Non-box trailers (tanker, platform,
container chassis, and all other types
of highway trailers that are not box
trailers)
As discussed in the next section,
partial-aero box trailers would have the
same standards as their corresponding
full-aero trailers in the early phase-in
years, and would have separate, less
stringent standards as the program is
fully implemented. Section IV. C. (5)
introduces these proposed partial-aero
trailer standards and Section IV. D.
describes the technologies that could be
applied to meet these proposed
standards.
(2) Proposed Fuel Consumption and
CO2 Standards
As described in previously, it is the
combination of the tractor and the
trailer that form the useful vehicle, and
trailer designs substantially affect the
CO2 emissions and diesel fuel
consumption of the tractors pulling
them. Note that although the agencies
are proposing new CO2 and fuel
consumption standards for trailers
separately from tractors, we set the
numerical level of the trailer standards
(see Section IV.D below) in relation to
‘‘standard’’ reference tractors in
recognition of their interrelatedness. In
other words, the regulatory standards
refer to the simulated emissions and
fuel consumption of a standard tractor
pulling the trailer being certified.
The agencies project that these
proposed standards, when fully
implemented in MY (model year) 2027,
would achieve fuel consumption and
CO2 emissions reductions of three to
eight percent, depending on trailer
subcategory. These projected reductions
assume a degree of technology adoption
into the future absent the proposed
program and are evaluated on a
weighted drive cycle (see Section IV. D.
(3) . We expect that the MY 2027
standards would be met with highperforming aerodynamic and tire
technologies largely available in the
marketplace today. With a lead-time of
more than 10 years, the agencies believe
that both trailer construction and bolton CO2- and fuel consumption-reducing
technologies will advance well beyond
the performance of their current
counterparts that exist today. A
description of technologies that the
agencies considered for this proposal is
provided in Section IV. D.
The agencies designed this proposed
trailer program to ensure a gradual
progression of both stringency and
compliance requirements in order to
limit the impact on this newly-regulated
industry. The agencies are proposing
progressively more stringent standards
in three-year stages leading up to the
MY 2027.214 The agencies are proposing
several options to reduce compliance
burden (see Section IV. F.) in the early
years as the industry gains experience
with the program. EPA is proposing to
initiate its program in 2018 with modest
standards for long box dry and
refrigerated vans that can be met with
common SmartWay-verified
aerodynamic and tire technologies. In
this early stage, we expect that
manufacturers of the other trailer
subcategories would meet those
standards by using tire technologies
only. Standards that we propose for the
next stages, which we propose to begin
in MY 2021, MY 2024, and MY 2027,
would gradually increase in stringency
for each subcategory, including the
introduction of standards for shorter box
vans that we expect would be met by
applying both aerodynamic and tire
technologies. NHTSA’s regulations
would be voluntary until MY 2021 as
described in Section IV. C. (3).
Table IV–2 below presents the CO2
and fuel consumption phase-in
standards, beginning in MY 2018 that
the agencies are proposing for trailers.
The standards are expressed in grams of
CO2 per ton-mile and gallons of fuel per
1,000 ton-miles to reflect the loadcarrying capacity of the trailers. Partialaero trailers would be subject to the
same standards as their corresponding
‘‘full aero’’ trailers for MY 2018 through
MY 2026. In MY 2027 and the years to
follow, partial-aero trailers would
continue to meet the standards for MY
2024.
The agencies are not proposing CO2 or
fuel consumption standards predicated
on aerodynamic improvements for nonbox trailers or non-aero box vans at any
stage of this proposed program. Instead,
we are proposing design standards that
would require manufacturers of these
trailers to adopt specific tire
technologies and thus to comply
without aerodynamic devices. We
believe that this approach would
significantly limit the compliance
burden for these manufacturers and
request comment on this provision.215
TABLE IV–2—PROPOSED TRAILER CO2 AND FUEL CONSUMPTION STANDARDS FOR BOX TRAILERS
Subcategory
Dry van
Refrigerated van
Model year
Length
2018–2020 ............................
2021–2023 ............................
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2024–2026 ............................
2027 + ...................................
EPA Standard ..............................................
(CO2 Grams per Ton-Mile).
Voluntary NHTSA Standard .........................
(Gallons per 1,000 Ton-Mile).
EPA Standard ..............................................
(CO2 Grams per Ton-Mile).
NHTSA Standard .........................................
(Gallons per 1,000 Ton-Mile).
EPA Standard ..............................................
(CO2 Grams per Ton-Mile).
NHTSA Standard .........................................
(Gallons per 1,000 Ton-Mile).
EPA Standard ..............................................
(CO2 Grams per Ton-Mile).
NHTSA Standard .........................................
(Gallons per 1,000 Ton-Mile).
214 These stages are consistent with NHTSA’s
stability requirements under EISA.
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Long
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Short
Frm 00121
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Short
83
144
84
147
8.1532
14.1454
8.2515
14.4401
81
142
82
146
7.9568
13.9489
8.0550
14.3418
79
141
81
144
7.7603
13.8507
7.9568
14.1454
77
140
80
144
7.5639
13.7525
7.8585
14.1454
215 The agencies are not proposing provisions to
allow averaging for non-box trailers, non-aero box
trailers, or partial-aero box trailers, and this reduced
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flexibility would likely have the effect of requiring
compliant tire technologies to be used.
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Differences in the numerical values of
these standards among trailer
subcategories are due to differences in
the tractor-trailer characteristics, as well
as differences in the default payloads, in
the vehicle simulation model we used to
develop the proposed standards (as
described in Section IV. D. (3) (a)
below). Lower numerical values in
Table IV–2 do not necessarily indicate
more stringent standards. For instance,
the proposed standards for dry and
refrigerated vans of the same length
have the same stringency through MY
2026, but the standards recognize
differences in trailer weight and
aerodynamic performance due to the
TRU on refrigerated vans. Trailers of the
same type but different length differ in
weight as well as in the number of axles
(and tires), tractor type, payload and
aerodynamic performance. Section IV.
D. and Chapter 2.10 of the draft RIA
provide more details on the
characteristics of the tractor-trailer
vehicles, with various technologies, that
are the basis for these standards.
In developing the proposed standards
for trailers, the agencies evaluated the
current level of CO2 emissions and fuel
consumption, the types and availability
of technologies that could be applied to
reduce CO2 and fuel consumption, and
the current adoption rates of these
technologies. Additionally, we
considered the necessary lead-time and
associated costs to the industry to meet
these standards, as well as the fuel
savings to the consumer and magnitude
of CO2 and fuel savings that we project
would be achieved as a result of these
proposed standards. As discussed in
more detail later in this preamble and in
Chapter 2.10 of the draft RIA, the
analyses of trailer aerodynamic and tire
technologies that the agencies have
conducted appear to show that these
proposed standards would be the
maximum feasible and appropriate in
the lead-time provided under each
agency’s respective statutory authorities.
We ask that any comments related to
stringency include data whenever
possible indicating the potential
effectiveness and cost of adding such
devices to these vehicles.
The agencies request comment on all
aspects of these proposed standards,
including trailers to be covered and the
proposed 50-foot demarcation between
‘‘long’’ and ‘‘short’’ box vans, the
proposed phase-in schedule, and the
stringency of the standards in relation to
their cost, CO2 and fuel consumption
reductions, and on the proposed
compliance provisions, as discussed in
Section IV. F.
In addition to these proposed trailer
standards, the agencies considered
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standards both less stringent and more
stringent than the proposed standards.
We specifically request comment on a
set of accelerated standards that we
considered, as presented in Section IV.
E. This set of standards is predicated on
performance and penetration rates of the
same technologies as the proposed
standards, but would reach full
implementation three years sooner.
(3) Lead-Time Considerations
As mentioned earlier, although the
agencies did not include standards for
trailers in Phase 1, box trailer
manufacturers have been gaining
experience with CO2- and fuel
consumption-reducing technologies
over the past several years, and the
agencies expect that trend to continue,
due in part to EPA’s SmartWay program
and California’s Tractor-Trailer
Greenhouse Gas Regulation. Most
manufacturers of long box trailers have
some experience installing these
aerodynamic and tire technologies for
customers. This experience impacts
how much lead-time is necessary from
a technological perspective. EPA is
proposing CO2 emission standards for
long box trailers for MY 2018 that
represent stringency levels similar to
those used for SmartWay verification
and required for the California
regulation, and thus could be met by
adopting off-the-shelf aerodynamic and
tire technologies available today. The
NHTSA program from 2018 through
2020 would be voluntary.
Manufacturers of trailers other than
53-foot box vans do not have the benefit
of programs such as SmartWay to
provide a reliable evaluation and
promotion of these technologies for
their trailers and therefore have less
experience with these technologies. As
such, EPA is proposing less stringent
requirements for manufacturers of other
highway trailer subcategories beginning
in MY 2018. We expect these
manufacturers of short box trailers
would adopt some aerodynamic and tire
technologies, and manufacturers of
other trailers would adopt tire
technologies only, as a means of
achieving the proposed standards. Some
manufacturers of trailers other than long
boxes may not yet have direct
experience with these technologies, but
the technologies they would need are
fairly simple and can be incorporated
into trailer production lines without
significant process changes. Also, the
NHTSA program for these trailers would
be voluntary until MY 2021.
The agencies believe that the burdens
of installing and marketing these
technologies would not be limiting
factors in determining necessary lead-
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time for manufacturers of these trailers.
Instead, we expect that the proposed
first-time compliance and, in some
cases, performance testing requirements,
would be the more challenging obstacles
for this newly regulated industry. For
these reasons, we are proposing that
these standards phase in over a period
of nine years, with flexibilities that
would minimize the compliance and
testing burdens in the early years of the
proposed program (see Section IV. F.).
As mentioned previously, EPA is
proposing modest standards and several
compliance options that would allow it
to begin its program for MY 2018.
However, EISA requires four model
years of lead-time for fuel consumption
standards, regardless of the stringency
level or availability of flexibilities.
Therefore, NHTSA’s proposed fuel
consumption requirements would not
become mandatory until MY 2021. Prior
to MY 2021, trailer manufacturers could
voluntarily participate in NHTSA’s
program, noting that once they made
such a choice, they would need to stay
in the program for all succeeding model
years.216
The agencies believe that the expected
period of seven years or more between
the issuing of the final rules and full
implementation of the program would
provide sufficient lead-time for all
affected trailer manufacturers to adopt
CO2- and fuel consumption-reducing
technologies or design trailers to meet
the proposed standards.
(4) Non-CO2 GHG Emissions from
Trailers
In addition to the impact of trailer
design on the CO2 emissions of tractortrailer vehicles, the agencies recognize
that refrigerated trailers can also be a
source of emissions of HFCs.
Specifically, HFC refrigerants that are
used in transport refrigeration units
(TRUs) have the potential to leak into
the atmosphere. We do not currently
believe that HFC leakage is likely to
become a major problem in the near
future, and we are not proposing
provisions addressing refrigerant
leakage of trailer-related HFCs in this
proposed rulemaking. TRUs differ from
the other source categories where EPA
has adopted (or proposed) to apply HFC
leakage requirements (i.e., air
conditioning). We believe trailer owners
have a strong incentive to limit
refrigerant leakage in order to maintain
the operability of the trailer’s
refrigeration unit and avoid financial
liability for damage to perishable freight
due to a failure to maintain the agreed216 NHTSA adopted a similar voluntary approach
in the first years of Phase 1 (see 76 FR 57106).
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upon temperature and humidity
conditions. In addition, refrigerated van
units represent a relatively small
fraction of new trailers. Nevertheless,
we request comment on this issue,
including any data on typical TRU
charge capacity, the frequency of HFC
refrigerant leakage from these units
across the fleet, the magnitude of
unaddressed leakage from individual
units, and how potential EPA
regulations might address this leakage
issue.
(5) Exclusions and Less-Stringent
Standards
All trailers built before January 1,
2018 are excluded from the Phase 2
trailer program, and from 40 CFR part
1037 and 49 CFR part 535 in general
(see 40 CFR 1037.5(g) and 49 CFR
535.3(e)). Furthermore, the proposed
regulations do not apply to trailers
designed to be drawn by vehicles other
than tractors, and those that are coupled
to vehicles with pintle hooks or hitches
instead of a fifth wheel. As stated
previously, we are proposing that nonbox trailers that are designed for
dedicated use with in-field operations
related to logging and mining be
completely excluded from this Phase 2
trailer program. The agencies believe
that the operational capabilities of
trailers designed for these purposes
could be compromised by the use of
aerodynamic devices or tires with lower
rolling resistance. Additionally, the
agencies are proposing to exclude
trailers designed for heavy-haul
applications and those that are not
intended for highway use, as follows:
—Trailers shorter than 35 feet in length
with three axles, and all trailers with
four or more axles (including any lift
axles)
—Trailers designed to operate at low
speeds such that they are unsuitable
for normal highway operation
—Trailers designed to perform their
primary function while stationary
—Trailers intended for temporary or
permanent residence, office space, or
other work space, such as campers,
mobile homes, and carnival trailers
—Trailers designed to transport
livestock
—Incomplete trailers that are sold to a
secondary manufacturer for
modification to serve a purpose other
than transporting freight, such as for
offices or storage 217
Where the criteria for exclusion
identified above may be unclear for
217 Secondary manufacturers who purchase
incomplete trailers and complete their construction
to serve as trailers are subject to the requirements
of 40 CFR 1037.620.
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specific trailer models, manufacturers
would be encouraged to ask the agencies
to make a determination before
production begins. The agencies seek
comments on these and any other trailer
characteristics that might make the
trailers incompatible with highway use
or would restrict their typical operating
speeds.
Because the agencies are proposing
that these trailers be excluded from the
program, we are not proposing to
require manufacturers to report to the
agencies about these excluded trailers.
We seek comments on whether, in lieu
of the exclusion of trailers from the
program, the agencies should instead
exempt these trailers from the
standards, but still require reporting to
the agencies in order to verify that a
manufacturer qualifies for an
exemption. In that case, exempt trailers
would have some regulatory
requirements (e.g., reporting); again,
excluded trailers would have no
regulatory requirements under this
proposal. All other trailers would
remain covered by the proposed
standards.
As described earlier, the proposed
program is based on the expectation that
manufacturers would be able to apply
aerodynamic devices and tire
technologies to the vast majority of box
trailers, and these standards would be
relatively stringent. We propose to
categorize trailers with functional
components or work-performing
equipment, and trailers with certain
design elements, that could partially
interfere with the installation or the
effectiveness of some aerodynamic
technologies, as ‘‘partial-aero’’ box
trailers. For example, some trailer
equipment by their placement or their
need for operator access might not be
compatible with current designs of
trailer skirts, but a boat tail could be
effective on that trailer in the early years
of the program. Similarly, a rear lift gate
or roll-up rear door might not be
compatible with a current boat tail
design, but skirts could be effective. The
proposed requirements for these trailers
would the same as their full-aero
counterparts until MY 2027, at which
time they would continue to be subject
to the MY 2024 standards. See 40 CFR
1037.107.
For trailers for which no aerodynamic
devices are practical, the agencies are
proposing design standards requiring
LRR tires and ATI systems. Trailers for
which neither skirt/under-body devices
nor rear-end devices would be likely to
be feasible fall into two categories: nonbox trailers and non-aero box trailers.
We believe that there is limited
availability of aerodynamic technologies
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40259
for non-box trailers (for example,
platform (flatbed) trailers, tank trailers,
and container chassis trailers). Also, for
container chassis trailers, operational
considerations, such as stacking of the
chassis trailers, impede introduction of
aerodynamic technologies. In addition,
manufacturers of these trailer types have
little or no experience with
aerodynamic technologies designed for
their products. Non-aero box trailers,
defined as those with equipment or
design features that would preclude
both skirt/under-body and rear-end
aerodynamic technologies (e.g., a trailer
with both a pull-out platform for side
access and a rear lift gate), would be
subject to the same tire-only design
standards as would non-box trailers,
based exclusively on the performance of
tire and ATI technologies.218
We recognize that the shortest short
box vans (i.e., less than 35 feet) are often
pulled in tandem. Since these trailers
make up the majority of trailers in the
short box van subcategories, we are not
proposing standards for short box dry
and refrigerated vans based on the use
of rear devices. Thus, work-performing
features on the rear of the trailer (e.g.,
lift gates) would not impact a trailer’s
ability to meet the full-aero short-box
trailer standards. As a result, we are
proposing that all short box vans only
be categorized as partial-aero vans if
they have work-performing side features
(e.g., belly boxes). We expect that
partial-aero short dry van trailers would
be able to adopt front-side devices that
would achieve the reduced standards.
Furthermore, some short box trailers
that are not operated in tandem, such as
40- or 48-foot trailers, could also be able
to adopt rear-side devices and achieve
even greater reductions.
Refrigerated short box vans are a
special case in that they have TRUs that
limit the ability to apply aerodynamic
technologies to the front side of the
trailers. Because of this, we are
proposing to classify the shortest
refrigerated box vans (shorter than 35
feet) as non-aero trailers if they are
designed with work-performing side
features. Since these trailers may be
pulled in tandem and since they cannot
adopt front-side aerodynamic devices,
we propose that they meet standards
predicated on tire technologies only.
Short box refrigerated trailers 35 feet
and longer would only qualify for nonaero standards if they have work218 The agencies are not aware of workperforming equipment that would prevent the use
of gap-reducing trailer devices on dry vans of any
length; thus dry vans with side and rear equipment
could qualify as ‘‘non-aero’’ trailers, even if the
manufacturer could install a gap-reducing device.
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performing devices on both the side and
rear of the trailer. See 40 CFR 1037.107.
We request comment on these
proposed provisions for excluding some
trailers from the program, including
speed restrictions and physical
characteristics that would generally
make them incompatible for highway
use. We also request comment on the
proposed approach of applying lessstringent standards to non-box, non-aero
box, and partial-aero box trailers.
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(6) In-Use Standards
Consistent with Section 202(a)(1) of
the CAA, EPA is proposing that the
emissions standards apply for the useful
life of the trailers. NHTSA also proposes
to adopt EPA’s useful life requirements
for trailers to ensure manufacturers
consider in the design process the need
for fuel efficiency standards to apply for
the same duration and mileage as EPA
standards. Aerodynamic devices
available today, including trailer skirts,
rear fairings, under-body devices, and
gap-reducing fairings, are designed to
maintain their physical integrity for the
life of the trailer. In the absence of
failures like detachment, breakage, or
misalignment, we expect that the
aerodynamic performance of the devices
will not degrade appreciably over time
and that the projected CO2 and fuel
consumption reductions will continue
for the life of the vehicle with no special
maintenance requirements. Because of
this, EPA does not see a benefit to
establishing separate standards that
would apply in-use for trailers. EPA and
NHTSA are proposing a regulatory
useful life value for trailers of 10 years,
and thus the certification standards
would apply in-use for that period of
time.219 See Section IV. F. (5) (a) for a
discussion of other factors related to
trailer useful life.
D. Feasibility of the Proposed Trailer
Standards
As discussed below, the agencies’
initial determination, subject to
consideration of public comment, is that
the standards presented in the Section
IV.C.2, are the maximum feasible and
appropriate under the agencies’
respective authorities, considering lead
time, cost, and other factors. We
summarize our analyses in this section,
and describe them in more detail in the
Draft RIA (Chapter 2.10).
Our analysis of the feasibility of the
proposed CO2 and fuel consumption
standards is based on technology cost
and effectiveness values collected from
219 EPA may perform in-use testing of any vehicle
subject to the standards of this part, including
trailers. For example, we may test trailers to verify
drag areas or other GEM inputs.
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several sources. Our assessment of the
proposed trailer program is based on
information from:
—Southwest Research Institute
evaluation of heavy-duty vehicle fuel
efficiency and costs for NHTSA,220
—2010 National Academy of Sciences
report of Technologies and
Approaches to Reducing the Fuel
Consumption of Medium- and HeavyDuty Vehicles,221
—TIAX’s assessment of technologies to
support the NAS panel report,222
—The analysis conducted by the
Northeast States Center for a Clean
Air Future, International Council on
Clean Transportation, Southwest
Research Institute and TIAX for
reducing fuel consumption of heavyduty long haul combination tractors
(the NESCCAF/ICCT study),223
—The technology cost analysis
conducted by ICF for EPA,224 and
—Testing conducted by EPA.
As an initial step in our analysis, we
identified the extent to which fuel
consumption- and CO2-reducing
technologies are in use today.
The technologies include those that
reduce aerodynamic drag at the front,
back, and underside of trailers, tires
with lower rolling resistance, tire
inflation technologies, and weight
reduction through component
substitution. It should be noted that the
agencies need not and did not attempt
to predict the exact future pathway of
the industry’s response to the new
standards, but rather demonstrated one
example of how compliance could
reasonably occur, taking into account
cost of the standards (including costs of
compliance testing and certification),
and needed lead time. We are proposing
that full-aero box trailer manufacturers
220 Reinhart, T.E. (June 2015). Commercial
Medium- and Heavy-Duty Truck Fuel Efficiency
Technology Study—Report #1. (Report No. DOT HS
812 146). Washington, DC: National Highway
Traffic Safety Administration.
221 Committee to Assess Fuel Economy
Technologies for Medium- and Heavy-Duty
Vehicles; National Research Council;
Transportation Research Board (2010).
Technologies and Approaches to Reducing the Fuel
Consumption of Medium- and Heavy-Duty
Vehicles. (‘‘The NAS Report’’) Washington, DC, The
National Academies Press. Available electronically
from the National Academy Press Web site at https://
www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=12845.
222 TIAX, LLC. ‘‘Assessment of Fuel Economy
Technologies for Medium- and Heavy-Duty
Vehicles,’’ Final Report to National Academy of
Sciences, November 19, 2009.
223 NESCCAF, ICCT, Southwest Research
Institute, and TIAX. Reducing Heavy-Duty Long
Haul Combination Truck Fuel Consumption and
CO2 Emissions. October 2009.
224 ICF International. ‘‘Investigation of Costs for
Strategies to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions for
Heavy-Duty On-Road Vehicles.’’ July 2010. Docket
Number EPA–HQ–OAR–2010–0162–0283.
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have additional flexibility in meeting
the standards through averaging. The
less complex standards proposed for
partial- and non-aero box and non-box
trailers would still provide a degree of
technology choices that would meet
their standards.
For our feasibility analysis, we
identified a set of technologies to
represent the range of those likely to be
used in the time frame of the rule. We
then combined these technologies into
packages of increasing effectiveness in
reducing CO2 and fuel consumption and
projected reasonable rates at which the
evaluated technologies and packages
could be adopted across the trailer
industry. More details regarding our
analysis can be found in Chapter
2.10.4.1 of the draft RIA.
The agencies developed the proposed
CO2 and fuel consumption standards for
each stage of the program by combining
the projected effectiveness of trailer
technologies and the projected adoption
rates for each trailer type. We evaluated
these standards with respect to the cost
of these technologies, the emission
reductions and fuel consumption
improvements achieved, and the leadtime needed to deploy the technology at
a given adoption rate.
Unlike the other sectors covered by
this Phase 2 rulemaking, trailer
manufacturers do not have experience
certifying under the Phase 1 program.
Moreover, a large fraction of the trailer
industry is composed of small
businesses and very few of the largest
trailer manufacturers have the same
resources available as manufacturers in
the other heavy-duty sectors. The
standards have been developed with
this in mind, and we are confident the
proposed standards can be achieved by
manufacturers who lack prior
experience implementing such
standards.
(1) Available Technologies
Trailer manufacturers can design a
trailer to reduce fuel consumption and
CO2 emissions by addressing the
trailer’s aerodynamic drag, tire rolling
resistance and weight. In this section we
outline the general trailer technologies
that the agencies considered in
evaluating the feasibility of the
proposed standards.
(a) Aerodynamic Drag Reduction
Historically, the primary goal when
designing the shape of box trailers has
been to maximize usable internal cargo
volume, while complying with
regulatory size limits and minimizing
construction costs. This led to standard
box trailers being rectangular. This basic
shape creates significant aerodynamic
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drag and makes box trailers strong
candidates for aerodynamic
improvements. Current bolt-on
aerodynamic technologies for box
trailers are designed to create a smooth
transition of airflow from the tractor,
around the trailer, and beyond the
trailer.
Table IV–3 lists general aerodynamic
technologies that the EPA SmartWay
program has evaluated for use on box
trailers and a description of their
intended impact. Several versions of
each of these technologies are
commercially available and have seen
increased adoption over the past
40261
decade. Performance of these devices
varies based on their design, their
location and orientation on the trailer,
and the vehicle speed. More information
regarding the agencies’ initial
assessment of these devices, including
incremental costs is discussed in
Chapter 2.10 of the draft RIA.
TABLE IV–3—AERODYNAMIC TECHNOLOGIES FOR BOX TRAILERS
Example technologies
Intended impact on aerodynamics
Front ................................................
Front fairings and gap-reducing fairings ...................
Rear .................................................
Underside ........................................
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Location on trailer
Rear fairings, boat tails and flow diffusers ................
Side fairings and skirts, and underbody devices ......
Reduce cross-flow through gap and smoothly transition airflow from tractor to the trailer.
Reduce pressure drag induced by the trailer wake.
Manage flow of air under the trailer to reduce turbulence, eddies and wake.
As mentioned previously, SmartWayverified technologies are evaluated on
53-foot dry vans. However, the CO2- and
fuel consumption-reducing potential of
some aerodynamic technologies
demonstrated on 53-foot dry vans can be
translated to refrigerated vans and box
trailers in lengths different than 53 feet
and some fleets have opted to add trailer
skirts to their refrigerated vans and 28foot trailers (often called ‘‘pups’’). In
addition, some side skirts have been
adapted for non-box trailers (e.g.,
tankers, platforms, and container
chassis), and have shown potential for
large reductions in drag. At this time,
however, non-box trailer aerodynamic
devices are not widely available, with
many still at the prototype stage. The
agencies encourage commenters to
provide more information and data
related to the effectiveness of
technologies applied to trailers other
than 53-foot dry and refrigerated vans.
‘‘Boat tail’’ devices, applied to the rear
of a trailer, are typically designed to
collapse flat as the trailer rear doors are
opened. If the tail structure can remain
in the collapsed configuration when the
doors are closed, the benefit of the
device is lost. The agencies request
comment on whether we should require
that trailer manufacturers using such
devices for compliance with the
proposed standards only use designs
that automatically deploy when the
vehicle is in motion.
The agencies are aware that physical
characteristics of some box trailers
influence the technologies that can be
applied. For instance, the TRUs on
refrigerated vans are located at the front
of the trailer, which prohibits the use of
current gap-reducers. Similarly, drop
deck dry vans have lowered floors
between the landing gear and the trailer
axles that limit the ability to use side
skirts. The agencies considered the
availability and limitations of
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aerodynamic technologies for each
trailer type evaluated in our feasibility
analysis of the proposed and alternative
standards.
(b) Tire Rolling Resistance
On a typical Class 8 long-haul tractortrailer, over 40 percent of the total
energy loss from tires is attributed to
rolling resistance from the trailer
tires.225 Trailer tire rolling resistance
values collected by the agencies for
Phase 1 indicate that the average
coefficient of rolling resistance (CRR) for
new trailer tires was 6.0 kg/ton. This
value was applied for the standard
trailer used for tractor compliance in the
Phase 1 tractor program. For Phase 2,
the agencies consider all trailer tires
with CRR values below 6.0 kg/ton to be
‘‘lower rolling resistance’’ (LRR) tires.
For reference, a trailer tire that qualifies
as a SmartWay-verified tire must meet a
CRR value of 5.1 kg/ton, a 15 percent CRR
reduction from the trailer tire identified
in Phase 1. Our research of rolling
resistance indicates an additional CRR
reduction of 15 percent or more from
the SmartWay verification threshold is
possible with tires that are available in
the commercial market today.
For this proposal, the agencies are
proposing to use the same rolling
resistance baseline value of 6.0 kg/ton
for all trailer subcategories. We request
comment on the appropriateness of 6.0
kg/ton as the proposed CRR threshold for
all regulated trailers. Specifically, the
agencies would like more information
on current adoption rates of and CRR
values for models of LRR tires currently
in use on short box trailers and the
various non-box trailers.
225 ‘‘Tires & Truck Fuel Economy: A New
Perspective’’, The Tire Topic Magazine, Special
Edition Four, 2008, Bridgestone Firestone, North
American Tire, LLC. Available online: https://
www.trucktires.com/bridgestone/us_eng/brochures/
pdf/08-Tires_and_Truck_Fuel_Economy.pdf.
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Similar to the case of tractor tires,
LRR tires are available as either dual or
as single wide-based tires for trailers.
Single wide-based tires achieve CRR
values that are similar to their dual
counterparts, but have an added benefit
of weight reduction, which can be an
attractive option for trailers that
frequently maximize cargo weight. See
Section IV.D.1.d below.
(c) Tire Pressure Systems
The inflation pressure of tires also
impacts the rolling resistance. Tractortrailers operating with all tires underinflated by 10 psi have been shown to
increase fuel consumed by up to 1
percent.226 Tires can gradually lose
pressure from small punctures, leaky
valves or simply diffusion through the
tire casing. Changes in ambient
temperature can also have an effect on
tire pressure. Trailers that remain
unused for long periods of time between
hauls may experience any of these
conditions. A 2003 FMCSA report found
that nearly 1 in 5 trailers had at least 1
tire under-inflated by 20 psi or more. If
drivers or fleets are not diligent about
checking and attending to underinflated tires, the trailer may have much
higher rolling resistance and much
higher CO2 emissions and fuel
consumption.
Tire pressure monitoring (TPM) and
automatic tire inflation (ATI) systems
are designed to address under-inflated
tires. Both systems alert drivers if a
tire’s pressure drops below its set point.
TPM systems are simpler and merely
monitor tire pressure. Thus, they require
user-interaction to re inflate to the
appropriate pressure. Today’s ATI
systems, on the other hand, typically
226 ‘‘Tire Pressure Systems—Confidence Report’’.
North American Council for Freight Efficiency.
2013. Available online: https://nacfe.org/wpcontent/uploads/2014/01/TPS-Detailed-ConfidenceReport1.pdf.
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take advantage of trailers’ air brake
systems to supply air back into the tires
(continuously or on demand) until a
selected pressure is achieved. In the
event of a slow leak, ATI systems have
the added benefit of maintaining enough
pressure to allow the driver to get to a
safe stopping area. The agencies believe
TPM systems cannot sufficiently
guarantee the proper inflation of tires
due to the inherent user-interaction
required. Therefore, ATI systems are the
only pressure systems the agencies are
proposing to recognize in Phase 2.
Benefits of ATI systems in individual
trailers vary depending on the base level
of maintenance already performed by
the driver or fleet, as well as the number
of miles the trailer travels. Trailers that
are well maintained or that travel fewer
miles will experience less benefits from
ATI systems compared to trailers that
often drive with poorly inflated tires or
log many miles. The agencies believe
ATI systems can provide a CO2 and fuel
consumption benefit to most trailers.
With ATI use, trailers that have lower
annual vehicle miles traveled (VMT)
due to long periods between uses would
be less susceptible to low tire pressures
when they resume activity. Trailers with
high annual VMT would experience the
fuel savings associated with consistent
tire pressures. Automatic tire inflation
systems could provide a CO2 and fuel
consumption savings of 0.5–2.0 percent,
depending on the degree of underinflation in the trailer system. See
Section IV.D.3.d below for discussion of
our estimates of these factors, as well as
estimates of the degree of adoption of
ATI systems prior to and at various
points in the phase-in of the proposed
program.
The use of ATI systems can result in
cost savings beyond reducing fuel costs.
For example, drivers and fleets that
diligently maintain their tires would
spend less time and money to inspect
each tire. A 2011 FMCSA estimated
under-inflation accounts for one service
call per year and increases tire
procurement costs 10 to 13 percent. The
study found that total operating costs
can increase by $600 to $800 per year
due to under-inflation.227
(d) Weight Reduction
Reduction in trailer tare (i.e., empty)
weight can lead to fuel efficiency
reductions in two ways. For
applications where payload is not
limited by weight restrictions, the
overall weight of the tractor and trailer
would be reduced and would lead to
227 TMC Future Truck Committee Presentation
‘‘FMCSA Tire Pressure Monitoring Field
Operational Test Results,’’ February 8, 2011.
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improved fuel efficiency. For
applications where payload is limited
by weight restrictions, the lower trailer
weight would allow additional payload
to be transported during the truck’s trip,
so emissions and fuel consumption on
a ton-mile basis would decrease. There
are weight reduction opportunities for
trailers in both the structural
components and in the wheels/tires.
Material substitution (e.g., replacing
steel with aluminum or lighter-weight
composites) is feasible for components
such as roof bows, side and corner
posts, cross members, floor joists, floors,
and van sidewalls. Similar material
substitution is feasible for wheels (e.g.,
substituting aluminum for steel). Weight
can also be reduced through the use of
single wide-based tires replacing two
dual tires.
Lower weight is a desired trailer
attribute for many customers, and most
trailer manufacturers offer options that
reduce weight to some degree. Some of
these manufacturers, especially box van
makers, market trailers with lowerweight major components, such as lightweight composite van sidewalls or
aluminum floors, especially to
customers that expect to frequently
reach regulatory weight limits (i.e.,
‘‘weigh out’’) and are willing to pay a
premium for the ability to increase cargo
weight without exceeding overall
vehicle weight. Alternatively,
manufacturers that primarily design
trailers for customers that do not have
weight limit concerns (i.e., their
payloads frequently fill the available
trailer cargo space before the weight
limit is reached, or ‘‘cube out’’), or for
customers that have smaller budgets,
may continue to design trailers based on
traditional, heavier materials, such as
wood and steel.
There is no clear ‘‘baseline’’ for
current trailer weight against which
lower-weight designs could be
compared for regulatory purposes. For
this reason, the agencies do not believe
it would be appropriate or fair across
the industry to apply overall weight
reductions toward compliance.
However, the agencies do believe it
would be appropriate to allow a
manufacturer to account for weight
reductions that involve substituting very
specific, traditionally heavier
components with lower-weight options
that are not currently widely adopted in
the industry. We discuss how we apply
weight reduction in developing the
standards in Section IV. D. (2)(d) below.
(2) Technological Basis of the Standards
The analysis below presents one
possible set of technology designs by
which trailer manufacturers could
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reasonably achieve the goals of the
program on average. However, in
practice, trailer manufacturers could
choose different technologies, versions
of technologies, and combinations of
technologies that meet the business
needs of their customers while
complying with this proposed program.
Much of our analysis is performed for
box trailers, which have the most
stringent proposed standards. As
mentioned previously, we have separate
standards for short and long box vans,
and a trailer length of 50 feet is
proposed as the cut-point to distinguish
the two length categories. For the
purpose of this analysis, long trailers are
represented by 53-foot vans and short
trailers are represented by single, 28foot (‘‘pup’’) vans. These trailer lengths
make up the largest fraction of the vans
in the two categories. The agencies
recognize that many 28-foot short vans
are operated in tandem. However, these
trailers are sold individually, and
require a ‘‘dolly’’, often sold by a
separate manufacturer, to connect the
trailers for tandem operation.
In addition, the other trailer types
considered short vans in this proposal
(e.g., 40-foot and 48-foot) typically
operate as single trailers. To minimize
complexity, we are proposing that 28foot trailers represent all short
refrigerated and dry vans for both
compliance and for this feasibility
analysis. This means that manufacturers
would not need to perform tests (or
report device manufacturers’ test data)
of the performance of devices for each
trailer length in the short van category.
Although this approach would provide
a conservative estimate of actual CO2
emissions and fuel consumption
reductions for the short van category,
the agencies believe that the need to
avoid an overly complex compliance
program justifies this approach. We
request comment on this approach to
evaluating short box trailers.
(a) Aerodynamic Packages
In order to evaluate performance and
cost of the aerodynamic technologies
discussed in the previous section, the
agencies identified ‘‘packages’’ of
individual or combined technologies
that are being sold today on box trailers.
The agencies also identified distinct
performance levels (i.e., bins) for these
technologies based on EPA’s
aerodynamic testing. The agencies
recognize that there are other
technology options that have similar
performance. We chose the technologies
presented here based on their current
adoption rates and effectiveness in
reducing CO2 and fuel consumption.
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Bin I represents a base trailer with no
aerodynamic technologies added. There
is no cost associated with this bin. Bin
II achieves small reductions in CO2 and
fuel consumption. This bin includes a
gap reducing fairing added to a long dry
van or a skirt added to a solo short dry
van.228 Bin III includes devices that
would achieve SmartWay’s verification
threshold of four percent at cruise
speeds. Some basic skirts and boat tails
would achieve these levels of reductions
for long box trailers. A gap reducer and
a basic skirt on a short dry van would
meet this level of performance. Bin IV
technologies are more effective, single
aerodynamic devices for long box
trailers, including advanced skirts or
boat tails, that achieve larger reductions
in drag than the technologies in Bin III.
The combination of an advanced skirt
and gap reducer on a short dry van are
also expected to achieve this bin.
Bin V levels of performance were not
observed in EPA’s aerodynamic testing
for short box trailers. It is possible that
a gap reducer, skirt, and boat tail could
achieve this performance, but boat tails
are not feasible for 28-foot trailers
operated in tandem unless the trailer is
located in the rear position. For this
analysis, the agencies only evaluated
solo pup trailers and, therefore, did not
evaluate any technologies for short box
trailers beyond Bin IV. For this
proposed rulemaking, we believe a Bin
V level of performance can be achieved
for long box trailers by either highly
effective single devices or by applying a
combination of basic boat tails and
skirts. We do not currently have data for
a single aerodynamic device that fits
this bin and we evaluated it as a
combination of a basic tail and skirt. Bin
VI combines advanced skirts and boat
tail technologies on long box trailers.
This bin is expected to include many
technologies that qualify for SmartWay’s
‘‘Elite’’ designation.
Bin VII represents an optimized
system of technologies that work
together to synergistically address each
of the main areas of drag and achieves
aerodynamic improvements greater than
SmartWay’s ‘‘Elite’’ designation. We are
representing Bin VII with a gap reducer,
and advanced tail and skirt. Bin VIII is
designed to represent aerodynamic
technologies that may become available
in the future, including aerodynamic
devices yet to be designed or
approaches that would incorporate
changes to the construction of trailer
bodies. We have not analyzed this final
bin in terms of effectiveness or cost, but
are including it to account for future
advancements in trailer aerodynamics.
For this proposal, aerodynamic
performance is evaluated using a
vehicle’s aerodynamic drag area, CDA.
EPA collected aerodynamic test data for
several tractor-trailer configurations,
including 53-foot dry vans and 28-foot
dry van trailers with many of these
technology packages. The agencies
developed bins, somewhat similar to the
aerodynamic bins in the Phase 1 and
proposed Phase 2 tractor programs,
40263
based on results from our test program.
However, unlike the tractor program, we
grouped the technologies by changes in
CDA (or ‘‘delta CDA’’) rather than by
absolute values. In other words, each
bin would comprise aerodynamic
technologies that provide similar
improvements in drag. This delta CDA
classification methodology, which
measures improvement in performance
relative to a baseline, is similar to the
SmartWay technology verification
program with which most trailer
manufacturers are familiar.
Table IV–4 illustrates the bin
structure that the agencies are proposing
as the basis for compliance. The table
shows example technology packages
that might be included in each bin
based on EPA’s testing of 53-foot dry
vans and solo 28-foot dry vans. The
agencies believe these bins apply to
other box trailers (refrigerated vans and
lengths other than 28 and 53 feet),
which will be described in more detail
in Section IV.D.3.b. These bins cover a
wide enough range of delta CDAs to
account for the uncertainty seen in
EPA’s aerodynamic testing program due
to procedure variability, the use of
different test methods, or different
models of tractors, trailers and devices.
A more detailed description of the
development of these bins can be found
in the draft RIA, Chapter 2.10. We
welcome comments and additional data
that may support or suggest changes to
these bins.
TABLE IV–4—TECHNOLOGY BINS USED TO EVALUATE TRAILER BENEFITS AND COSTS
Bin
Bin
Bin
Bin
Bin
Bin
Bin
Delta CdA
Example technologies
Average
delta CDA
I ................................................
II ...............................................
III ..............................................
IV ..............................................
V ...............................................
VI ..............................................
< 0.09
0.10–0.19
0.20–0.39
0.40–0.59
0.60–0.79
0.80–1.19
0.0
0.1
0.3
0.5
0.7
1.0
Bin VII .............................................
Bin VIII ............................................
1.20–1.59
> 1.6
1.4
1.8
53-foot dry van
28-foot dry van
No Aero Devices ............................
Gap Reducer ..................................
Basic Skirt or Basic Tail .................
Advanced Skirt or Tail ...................
Basic Combinations.
Advanced Combinations (including
SmartWay Elite).
Optimized Combinations.
Changes to Trailer Construction.
No Aero Devices.
Skirt.
Skirt + Gap Reducer.
Adv. Skirt + Gap Reducer.
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Note: A blank cell indicates a zero or NA value in this table.
The agencies used EPA’s Greenhouse
gas Emissions Model (GEM) vehicle
simulation tool to conduct this analysis.
See Section F.1 below for more about
GEM. Within GEM, the aerodynamic
performance of each trailer subcategory
is evaluated by subtracting the delta
CDA shown in Table IV–4 from the CDA
value representing a specific standard
tractor pulling a zero-technology trailer.
The agencies chose to model the zerotechnology long box dry van using a
CDA value of 6.2 m2 (the average CDA
from EPA’s coastdown testing). For long
box refrigerated vans, a two percent
reduction in CDA was assumed to
account for the aerodynamic benefit of
the TRU at the front of the trailer. Short
box dry vans also received a two percent
lower CDA value compared to its 53-foot
counterpart, consistent with the
reduction observed in EPA’s wind
tunnel testing. The CDA value assigned
to the refrigerated short box vans was an
228 The agencies recognize that many 28-foot pup
trailers are often operated in tandem. However, we
are regulating and evaluating short dry vans as solo
trailers since they are sold individually and the
short box regulatory subcategories also include
trailer sizes not often operated in tandem (e.g., 40foot and 48-foot trailers).
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additional two percent lower than the
short box dry van. Non-aero box trailers
are modeled as short box dry vans. The
trailer subcategories that have design
standards (i.e., non-box and non-aero
box trailers) do not have numerical
standards to meet, but they were
evaluated in this feasibility analysis in
order to quantify the benefits of
including them in the program. Nonaero box trailers are modeled as short
dry vans. Non-box trailers, which are
modeled as flatbed trailers, were
assigned a drag area of 4.9 m2, as was
done in the Phase 1 tractor program for
low roof day cabs. Table IV–5 illustrates
the Bin I drag areas (CDA) associated
with each trailer subcategory.
TABLE IV–5—BASELINE CDA VALUES
ASSOCIATED WITH AERODYNAMIC BIN I
[Zero trailer technologies]
Trailer subcategory
Dry van
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Long Dry Van .......................
Short Dry Van .......................
Long Ref. Van ......................
Short Ref. Van ......................
Non-Aero Box .......................
Non-Box ................................
6.2
6.1
6.1
6.0
6.1
4.9
(b) Tire Rolling Resistance
Similar to the proposed Phase 2
tractor and vocational vehicle programs,
the agencies are proposing a tire
program based on adoption of lower
rolling resistance tires. Feedback from
several box trailer manufacturers
indicates that the standard tires offered
on their new trailers are SmartWayverified tires (i.e., CRR of 5.1 kg/ton or
better). An informal survey of members
from the Truck Trailer Manufacturers
Association (TTMA) indicates about 35
percent of box trailers sold today have
SmartWay tires.229 While some trailers
continue to be sold with tires of higher
rolling resistances, the agencies believe
most box trailer tires currently achieve
the Phase 1 trailer tire CRR of 6.0 kg/ton
or better.
The agencies evaluated two levels of
tire performance for this proposal
beyond the baseline trailer tire rolling
resistance level (TRRL) of 6.0 kg/ton.
The first performance level was set at
the criteria for SmartWay-verification
for trailer tires, 5.1 kg/ton, which is a 15
percent reduction in CRR from the
baseline. As mentioned previously,
several tire models available today
achieve rolling resistance values well
below the present SmartWay threshold.
Given the multiple year phase-in of the
229 Truck Trailer Manufacturers Association letter
to EPA. Received on October 16, 2014. Docket EPA–
HQ–OAR–2014–0827.
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standards, the agencies expect that tire
manufacturers will continue to respond
to demand for more efficient tires and
will offer increasing numbers of tire
models with rolling resistance values
significantly better than today’s typical
LRR tires. In this context, we believe it
is reasonable to expect a large fraction
of the trailer industry could adopt tires
with rolling resistances at a second
performance level that would achieve
an additional eight percent reduction in
rolling resistance (a 22 percent
reduction from the baseline tire),
especially in the later stages of the
program. The agencies project the CRR
for this second level of performance to
be a value of 4.7 kg/ton.
The agencies evaluated these three
tire rolling resistance levels,
summarized in Table IV–6, in the
feasibility analysis of the following
sections. GEM simulations that apply
Level 1 and 2 tires result in CO2 and
fuel consumption reductions of two and
three percent from the baseline tire,
respectively. It should be noted that
these levels are for the feasibility
analysis only. For compliance,
manufacturers would have the option to
use tires with any rolling resistance and
would not be limited to these TRRLs.
maintained. We selected the levels of
the proposed trailer standards with the
expectation that a high rate of adoption
of ATI systems would occur across all
on-highway trailers and during all years
of the phase-in of the program. See
Section IV.D.3.d below for discussion of
our estimates of these factors, as well as
estimates of the degree of adoption of
ATI systems prior to and at various
points in the phase-in of the proposed
program. The informal survey of
members from the Truck Trailer
Manufacturers Association (TTMA)
indicates about 40 percent of box
trailers sold today have ATI systems.231
(d) Weight Reduction
The agencies are proposing
compliance provisions that would limit
the weight-reduction options to the
substitution of specified components
that can be clearly isolated from the
trailer as a whole. For this proposal, the
agencies have identified several
conventional components with available
lighter-weight substitutes (e.g.,
substituting conventional dual tires
mounted on steel wheels with widebased single tires mounted on
aluminum wheels). We are proposing
values for the associated weight-related
savings that would be applied with
TABLE IV–6—SUMMARY OF TRAILER these substitutions for compliance. The
TIRE ROLLING RESISTANCE LEVELS proposed component substitutions and
their associated weight savings are
EVALUATED
presented in the draft RIA, Chapter
CRR
2.10.2.4 and in proposed 40 CFR
Tire rolling resistance level
(kg/ton)
1037.515. We believe that the initial
cost of these component substitutions is
Baseline ........................................
6.0
Level 1 ..........................................
5.1 currently substantial enough that only a
Level 2 ..........................................
4.7 relatively small segment of the industry
has adopted these technologies today.
The agencies recognize that when
(c) Automatic Tire Inflation Systems
weight reduction is applied to a trailer,
NHTSA and EPA recognize the role of some operators will replace that saved
proper tire inflation in maintaining
weight with additional payload. To
optimum tire rolling resistance during
account for this in EPA’s GEM vehicle
normal trailer operation. For this
simulation tool, it is assumed that oneproposal, rather than require
third of the weight reduction will be
performance testing of ATI systems, the applied to the payload. For tractoragencies are proposing to recognize the
trailers simulated in GEM, it takes a
benefits of ATI systems with a single
weight reduction of nearly 1,000 lbs
default reduction for manufacturers that before a one percent fuel savings is
incorporate ATI systems into their
achieved. The component substitutions
trailer designs. Based on information
identified by the agencies result in
available today, we believe that there is
weight reductions of less than 500 lbs,
a narrow range of performance among
yet can cost over $1,000. The agencies
technologies available and among
believe that few trailer manufacturers
systems in typical use. We propose to
would apply weight reduction solely as
assign a 1.5 percent reduction in CO2
a means of achieving reduced fuel
and fuel consumption for all trailers that consumption and CO emissions.
2
implement ATI systems, based on
Therefore, we are proposing standards
230 We
information available today.
that could be met without reducing
believe the use of these systems can
weight—that is, the compliance path set
consistently ensure that tire pressure
and tire rolling resistance are
231 Truck Trailer Manufacturers Association letter
PO 00000
230 See
the Chapter 2.10.2.3 of the draft RIA.
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out by the agencies for the proposed
standards does not include weight
reduction. However, we are proposing
to offer weight reduction as an option
for box trailer manufacturers who wish
to apply it to some of their trailers as
part of their compliance strategy.
The agencies have identified 11
common trailer components that have
lighter weight options available (see 40
CFR 1037.515) 232 233 234 235
Manufacturers that adopt these
technologies would sum the associated
weight reductions and apply those
values in GEM. As mentioned
previously, we are restricting the weight
reduction options to those listed in 40
CFR 1037.515. We are requesting
comment on the appropriateness of the
specified weight reductions from
component substitution. In addition, we
seek weight and cost data regarding
additional components that could be
offered as specific weight reduction
options. The agencies request that any
such components be applicable to most
box trailers, and that the reduced weight
option not currently be in common use.
(3) Effectiveness, Adoption Rates, and
Costs of Technologies for the Proposed
Standards
The agencies evaluated the
technologies above as they apply to each
of the trailer subcategories. The next
sections describe the effectiveness,
adoption rates and costs associated with
these technologies. The effectiveness
and adoption rates are then used to
derive the proposed standards.
(a) Zero-Technology Baseline TractorTrailer Vehicles
The regulatory purpose of EPA’s
heavy-duty vehicle compliance tool,
GEM, is to combine the effects of trailer
technologies through simulation so that
they can be expressed as g/ton-mile and
gal/1000 ton-mile and thus avoid the
need for direct testing of each trailer
model being certified. The proposed
trailer program has separate standards
for each trailer subcategory, and a
unique tractor-trailer vehicle was
chosen to represent each subcategory for
compliance. In the Phase 2 update to
GEM, each trailer subcategory is
modeled as a particular trailer being
pulled by a standard tractor depending
on the physical characteristics and use
pattern of the trailer. Table IV–7
highlights the relevant vehicle
characteristics for the zero-technology
baseline of each subcategory. Baseline
trailer tires are used, and the drag area,
which is a function of the aerodynamic
characteristics of both the tractor and
trailer, is set to the Bin I values shown
previously in Table IV–5. Weight
reduction and ATI systems are not
applied in these baselines. Chapter 2.10
of the draft RIA provides a detailed
description of the development of these
baseline tractor-trailers.
The agencies chose to consistently
model a Class 8 tractor across all trailer
subcategories. We recognize that Class 7
tractors are sometimes used in certain
applications. However, we believe Class
8 tractors are more widely available,
which will make it easier for trailer
manufacturers to obtain a qualified
tractor if they choose to perform trailer
testing. We request comment on the use
of Class 8 tractors as part of the tractortrailer vehicles used in the compliance
simulation as well as performance
testing. We ask that commenters include
data, where available, related to the
current use and availability of Class 7
and 8 tractors with respect to the trailer
types in each trailer subcategory.
TABLE IV—7 CHARACTERISTICS OF THE ZERO-TECHNOLOGY BASELINE TRACTOR-TRAILER VEHICLES
Dry van
Trailer Length .............................
Tractor Class ..............................
Tractor Cab Type .......................
Tractor Roof Height ....................
Engine ........................................
Frontal Area (m2) .......................
Drag Area, CDA (m2) .................
Steer Tire RR (kg/ton) ................
Drive Tire RR (kg/ton) ................
Trailer Tire RR (kg/ton) ..............
Total Weight (kg) ........................
Payload (tons) ............................
ATI System Use .........................
Weight Reduction (lb) ................
Drive Cycle Weightings ..............
65-MPH Cruise ...........................
55-MPH Cruise ...........................
Transient Driving ........................
Long .................
Class 8 .............
Sleeper ............
High .................
2018 MY 15L, ..
455 HP .............
10.4 ..................
6.2 ....................
6.54 ..................
6.92 ..................
6.00 ..................
31,978 ..............
19 .....................
0 .......................
0 .......................
..........................
86% ..................
9% ....................
5% ....................
ebenthall on DSK3VPTVN1PROD with MISCELLANEOUS
(b) Effectiveness of Technologies
The agencies are proposing to
recognize trailer improvements via four
performance parameters: aerodynamic
drag reduction, tire rolling resistance
232 Scarcelli, Jamie. ‘‘Fuel Efficiency for Trailers’’
Presented at ACEEE/ICCT Workshop: Emerging
Technologies for Heavy-Duty Vehicle Fuel
Efficiency, Wabash National Corporation. July 22,
2014.
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Refrigerated van
Short ................
Class 8 .............
Day ..................
High .................
2018 MY 15L, ..
455 HP .............
10.4 ..................
6.1 ....................
6.54 ..................
6.92 ..................
6.00 ..................
21,028 ..............
10 .....................
0 .......................
0 .......................
..........................
64% ..................
17% ..................
19% ..................
Long .................
Class 8 .............
Sleeper ............
High .................
2018 MY 15L, ..
455 HP .............
10.4 ..................
6.1 ....................
6.54 ..................
6.92 ..................
6.00 ..................
33,778 ..............
19 .....................
0 .......................
0 .......................
..........................
86% ..................
9% ....................
5% ....................
Non-aero box
Short ................
Class 8 .............
Day ..................
High .................
2018 MY 15L, ..
455 HP .............
10.4 ..................
6.0 ....................
6.54 ..................
6.92 ..................
6.00 ..................
22,828 ..............
10 .....................
0 .......................
0 .......................
..........................
64% ..................
17% ..................
19% ..................
All Lengths .......
Class 8 .............
Day ..................
High .................
2018 MY 15L, ..
455 HP .............
10.4 ..................
6.1 ....................
6.54 ..................
6.92 ..................
6.00 ..................
21,028 ..............
10 .....................
0 .......................
0 .......................
..........................
64% ..................
17% ..................
19% ..................
Non-box
All Lengths
Class 8
Day
Low
2018 MY 15L,
455 HP
6.9
4.9
6.54
6.92
6.00
29,710
19
0
0
64%
17%
19%
reduction, the adoption of ATI systems,
and by substituting specific weightreducing components. Table IV–8
summarizes the performance levels for
each of these parameters based on the
technology characteristics outlined in
Section IV. D. (2) .
233 ‘‘Weight Reduction: A Glance at Clean Freight
Strategies’’, EPA SmartWay. EPA420F09–043.
Available at: https://permanent.access.gpo.gov/
gpo38937/EPA420F09-043.pdf.
234 Memorandum dated June 2015 regarding
confidential weight reduction information obtained
during SBREFA Panel. Docket EPA–HQ–OAR–
2014–0827.
235 Randall Scheps, Aluminum Association, ‘‘The
Aluminum Advantage: Exploring Commercial
Vehicles Applications,’’ presented in Ann Arbor,
Michigan, June 18, 2009
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TABLE IV—8 PERFORMANCE PARAM- subcategory due to differences in the
ETERS FOR THE PROPOSED TRAILER simulated trailer characteristics. Table
IV–9 shows the agencies’ estimates of
PROGRAM—Continued
TABLE IV—8 PERFORMANCE PARAMETERS FOR THE PROPOSED TRAILER
PROGRAM
Aerodynamics (Delta CDA,
m2):
Bin I ...................................
Bin II ..................................
Bin III .................................
Bin IV .................................
Bin V ..................................
Bin VI .................................
Bin VII ................................
Bin VIII ...............................
Tire Rolling Resistance (CRR,
kg/ton):
Tire Baseline .....................
Tire Level 1 .......................
Tire Level 2 .......................
Tire Inflation System (% reduction):
ATI System ........................
Weight Reduction (lbs):
Weight ...............................
0.0.
0.1.
0.3.
0.5.
0.7.
1.0.
1.4.
1.8.
4.7.
1.5.
1/3 added to
payload, remaining reduces overall vehicle
weight.
These performance parameters have
different effects on each trailer
6.0.
5.1.
the effectiveness of each parameter for
the four box trailer subcategories. Each
technology was evaluated using the
baseline parameter values for the other
technology categories. For example,
each aerodynamic bin was evaluated
using the baseline tire (6.0 kg/ton) and
the baseline weight reduction option
(zero lbs). The table shows that
aerodynamic improvements offer the
largest potential for CO2 emissions and
fuel consumption reductions, making
them relatively effective technologies.
TABLE IV–9—EFFECTIVENESS (PERCENT CO2 AND FUEL SAVINGS FROM BASELINE) OF TECHNOLOGIES FOR THE
PROPOSED TRAILER PROGRAM
Dry van
Long
Bin
Bin
Bin
Bin
Bin
Bin
Bin
Bin
I ......................................................................
II .....................................................................
III ....................................................................
IV ....................................................................
V .....................................................................
VI ....................................................................
VII ...................................................................
VIII ..................................................................
Tire Rolling Resistance
0.0
0.1
0.3
0.5
0.7
1.0
1.4
1.8
.................................
.................................
.................................
.................................
.................................
.................................
.................................
.................................
Short
0%
¥1
¥2
¥3
¥5
¥7
¥10
¥13
CRR (kg/ton) ..................
Long
0%
¥1
¥2
¥4
¥5
¥7
¥10
¥13
Dry van
Long
6.0 .................................
5.1 .................................
4.7 .................................
0
¥2
¥3
Weight Reduction
Weight (lb) ....................
Baseline ................................................................
Al. Dual Wheels ....................................................
Upper Coupler ......................................................
Suspension ...........................................................
Al. Single Wide .....................................................
(c) Reference Tractor-Trailer To
Evaluate Benefits and Costs
In order to evaluate the benefits and
costs of the proposed standards, it is
necessary to establish a reference point
for comparison. As mentioned
previously, the technologies described
in Section IV. D. (2) exist in the market
today, and their adoption is driven by
available fuel savings as well as by the
voluntary SmartWay Partnership and
California’s tractor-trailer requirements.
For this proposal, the agencies
identified reference case tractor-trailers
for each trailer subcategory based on the
technology adoption rates we project
would exist if this proposed trailer
program was not implemented.
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0.0 .................................
168 ................................
280 ................................
430 ................................
556 ................................
236 Truck Trailer Manufacturers Association letter
to EPA. Received on October 16, 2014. Docket EPA–
HQ–OAR–2014–0827.
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0
¥1
¥2
0%
¥1
¥2
¥3
¥5
¥7
¥10
¥12
Short
0
¥2
¥3
0
¥1
¥2
Refrigerated van
Short
0.0
¥0.2
¥0.3
¥0.5
¥1
We project that by 2018, absent
further California regulation, EPA’s
SmartWay program and these research
programs will result in about 20 percent
of 53-foot dry and refrigerated vans
adopting basic SmartWay-level
aerodynamic technologies (meeting
SmartWay’s four percent verification
level and Bin III from Table IV–5), 30
percent adopting more advanced
aerodynamic technologies at the five
percent SmartWay-verification level
(Bin IV from Table IV–5) and five
percent adding combinations of
technologies (Bin V).236 237 238 In
0%
¥1
¥2
¥3
¥5
¥7
¥9
¥12
Long
Dry van
Long
Short
Refrigerated van
Short
Baseline ................................................................
Level 1 ..................................................................
Level 2 ..................................................................
ebenthall on DSK3VPTVN1PROD with MISCELLANEOUS
Refrigerated van
Delta CDA (m2)
Aerodynamics
0.0
¥0.3
¥1
¥1
¥1
Long
0.0
¥0.2
¥0.3
¥0.5
¥1
Short
0.0
¥0.3
¥1
¥1
¥1
addition, we project half of these 53’
box trailers will be equipped with
SmartWay-verified tires (i.e., 5.1 kg/ton
or better) and ATI systems as well. The
agencies project that market forces will
drive an additional one percent increase
in adoption of the advanced SmartWay
and tire technologies each year through
2027. For analytical purposes, the
agencies assumed manufacturers of the
shorter box trailers and other trailer
237 Ben Sharpe (ICCT) and Mike Roeth (North
American Council for Freight Efficiency), ‘‘Costs
and Adoption Rates of Fuel-Saving Technologies for
Trailer in the North American On-Road Freight
Sector’’, Feb 2014.
238 Frost & Sullivan, ‘‘Strategic Analysis of North
American Semi-trailer Advanced Technology
Market’’, Feb 2013.
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subcategories would not adopt these
technologies in the timeframe
considered and a zero-technology
baseline is assumed. We are not
assuming weight reduction for any of
the trailer subcategories in the reference
cases. Table IV–10 summarizes the
reference case trailers for each trailer
subcategory.
TABLE IV–10—PROJECTED ADOPTION RATES AND AVERAGE PERFORMANCE PARAMETERS FOR THE LESS DYNAMIC
REFERENCE CASE TRAILERS
Technology
Long box
dry & refrigerated vans
Model Year
2018
2021
Short box,
non-aero box,
& non-box
trailers
2024
2027
2018–2027
Aerodynamics:
Bin I ...............................................................................
Bin II ..............................................................................
Bin III .............................................................................
Bin IV ............................................................................
Bin V .............................................................................
Bin VI ............................................................................
Bin VII ...........................................................................
Bin VIII ..........................................................................
Average Delta CDA (m2) a .....................................
Tire Rolling Resistance:
Baseline tires ................................................................
Level 1 tires ..................................................................
Level 2 tires ..................................................................
Average CRR (kg/ton) a ..........................................
Tire Inflation:
ATI ................................................................................
Average % Reduction a .........................................
Weight Reduction (lbs):
Weight b .........................................................................
45%
........................
20
30
5
........................
........................
........................
0.2
41%
........................
20
34
5
........................
........................
........................
0.3
38%
........................
20
37
5
........................
........................
........................
0.3
35%
........................
20
40
5
........................
........................
........................
0.3
100%
........................
........................
........................
........................
........................
........................
........................
0.0
50
50
........................
5.55
47
53
........................
5.52
43
57
........................
5.49
40
60
........................
5.46
100
........................
........................
6.0
50
0.8
53
0.8
57
0.9
60
0.9
0
0.0
........................
........................
........................
........................
........................
Notes: A blank cell indicates a zero value.
a Combines adoption rates with performance levels shown in Table IV–8.
b Weight reduction was not projected for the reference case trailers.
Also shown in Table IV–10 are
average aerodynamic performance (delta
CDA), average tire rolling resistance
(CRR), and average reductions due to use
of ATI and weight reduction for each
stage of the proposed program. These
values indicate the performance of
theoretical average tractor-trailers that
the agencies project will be in use if no
federal regulations were in place for
trailer CO2 and fuel consumption. The
average tractor-trailer vehicles serve as
reference cases for each trailer
subcategory. The agencies provide a
detailed description of the development
of these reference case vehicles in
Chapter 2.10 in the draft RIA.
Because the agencies cannot be
certain about future trends, we also
considered a second reference case. This
more dynamic reference case reflects the
possibility that absent a Phase 2
regulation, there will be continuing
adoption of technologies in the trailer
market after 2027 that reduce fuel
consumption and CO2 emissions. This
case assumes the research funded and
conducted by the federal government,
industry, academia and other
organizations will, after 2027, result the
adoption of some technologies beyond
the levels required to comply with
existing regulatory and voluntary
programs. One example of such research
is the Department of Energy Super
Truck program which has a goal of
demonstrating cost-effective measures to
improve the efficiency of Class 8 longhaul freight trucks by 50 percent by
2015.239 This reference case assumes
that by 2040, 75 percent of new trailers
will be equipped with SmartWayverified aerodynamic devices, low
rolling resistance tires, and ATI systems.
Table IV–11 shows the agencies’
projected adoption rates of technologies
in the more dynamic reference case.
TABLE IV–11—PROJECTED ADOPTION RATES AND AVERAGE PERFORMANCE PARAMETERS FOR THE MORE DYNAMIC
REFERENCE CASE
ebenthall on DSK3VPTVN1PROD with MISCELLANEOUS
Technology
Long box
dry & refrigerated vans
Model year
2018
2021
2024
Short box,
non-aero box,
& non-box
trailers
2027
2040
2018–2027
Aerodynamics:
Bin I ...................................................
Bin II ..................................................
Bin III .................................................
45%
........................
20
41%
........................
20
38%
........................
20
35%
........................
20
239 Daimler Truck North America. SuperTruck
Program Vehicle Project Review. June 19, 2014.
Docket EPA–HQ–OAR–2014–0827.
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........................
20
100%
........................
........................
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TABLE IV–11—PROJECTED ADOPTION RATES AND AVERAGE PERFORMANCE PARAMETERS FOR THE MORE DYNAMIC
REFERENCE CASE—Continued
Technology
Long box
dry & refrigerated vans
Model year
2018
2021
2024
Short box,
non-aero box,
& non-box
trailers
2027
2040
2018–2027
Bin
Bin
Bin
Bin
Bin
IV ................................................
V .................................................
VI ................................................
VII ...............................................
VIII ..............................................
Average Delta C DA (m2) a ........
Tire Rolling Resistance:
Baseline tires ....................................
Level 1 tires ......................................
Level 2 tires ......................................
Average CRR (kg/ton) a ..............
Tire Inflation:
ATI ............................................................
Average % Reduction a .............
Weight Reduction (lbs):
Weight b .............................................
30
5
........................
........................
........................
0.2
34
5
........................
........................
........................
0.3
37
5
........................
........................
........................
0.3
40
5
........................
........................
........................
0.3
55
5
........................
........................
........................
0.4
........................
........................
........................
........................
........................
0.0
50
50
........................
5.6
47
53
........................
5.5
43
57
........................
5.5
40
60
........................
5.5
25
75
........................
5.3
100
........................
........................
6.0
50
0.8
53
0.8
57
0.9
60
0.9
75
1.1
0
0.0
........................
........................
........................
........................
........................
........................
Notes: A blank cell indicates a zero value.
a Combines adoption rates with performance levels shown in Table IV–8.
b Weight reduction was not projected for the reference case trailers.
The agencies applied the vehicle
attributes from Table IV–7 and the
average performance values from Table
IV–10 in the proposed Phase 2 GEM
vehicle simulation to calculate the CO2
emissions and fuel consumption
performance of the reference tractortrailers. The results of these simulations
are shown in Table IV–12. We used
these CO2 and fuel consumption values
to calculate the relative benefits of the
proposed standards. Note that the large
difference between the per ton-mile
values for long and short trailers is due
primarily to the large difference in
assumed payload (19 tons compared to
10 tons) as seen in Table IV–7 and
discussed further in the Chapter 2.10.3.
The alternative reference case shown in
Table IV–11 impacts the long-term
projections of benefits beyond 2027,
which are analyzed in Chapters 5–7 of
the draft RIA.
TABLE IV–12—CO2 EMISSIONS AND FUEL CONSUMPTION RESULTS FOR THE REFERENCE TRACTOR-TRAILERS
Dry van
Refrigerated van
Length
Long
CO2 Emissions (g/ton-mile) .............................................................................
Fuel Consumption (gal/1000 ton-miles) ..........................................................
ebenthall on DSK3VPTVN1PROD with MISCELLANEOUS
(d) Projected Technology Adoption
Rates for the Proposed Standards
As described in Section IV. E., the
agencies evaluated several alternatives
for the proposed trailer program. Based
on our analysis, and current
information, the agencies are proposing
the alternative we believe reflects the
agencies’ respective statutory
authorities. The agencies are also
considering an accelerated alternative
with less lead time, requiring the same
incremental stringencies for the
proposed program, but becoming
effective three years earlier. The
agencies believe this alternative has the
potential to be the maximum feasible
alternative. However, based on the
evidence currently before us, EPA and
NHTSA have outstanding questions
regarding relative risks and benefits of
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85
8.3497
Alternative 4 due to the timeframe
envisioned by that alternative. EPA and
NHTSA are seriously considering this
accelerated alternative in whole or in
part for the trailer segment. In other
words, the agencies could determine
that less lead-time is maximum feasible
in the final rule. We request comment
on these two alternatives, including the
proposed lead-times.
Table IV–13 and Table IV–14 present
a set of assumed adoption rates for
aerodynamic, tire, and ATI technologies
that a manufacturer could apply to meet
the proposed standards. These adoption
rates begin with 60 percent of long box
trailers achieving current SmartWay
level aerodynamics (Bin IV) and
progress to 90 percent achieving
SmartWay Elite (Bin VI) or better over
the following nine years. The adoption
rates for short box trailers assume
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147
14.4401
Long
87
8.5462
Short
151
14.8330
adoption of single aero devices in MY
2021 and combinations of devices by
MY 2027. Although the shorter lengths
of these trailers can restrict the design
of aerodynamic technologies that fully
match the SmartWay-like performance
levels of long boxes, we nevertheless
expect that trailer and device
manufacturers would continue to
innovate skirt, under-body, rear, and
gap-reducing devices and combinations
to achieve improved aerodynamic
performance on these shorter trailers.
The assumed adoption rates for
aerodynamic technologies for both long
and short refrigerated vans are slightly
less than for dry vans, reflecting the
more limited number of aerodynamic
options due to the presence of their
TRUs.
The gradual increase in assumed
adoption of aerodynamic technologies
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throughout the phase-in to the MY 2027
standards recognizes that even though
many of the technologies are available
today and technologically feasible
throughout the phase-period, their
adoption on the scale of the proposed
program would likely take time. The
adoption rates we are assuming in the
interim years—and the standards that
we developed from these rates—
represent steady and yet reasonable
improvement in average aerodynamic
performance.
The agencies project that nearly all
box trailers will adopt tire technologies
to comply with the standards and the
agencies projected consistent adoption
rates across all lengths of dry and
refrigerated vans, with more advanced
(Level 2) low-rolling resistance tires
assumed to replace Level 1 tire models
in the 2024 time frame, as Level 2-type
tires become more available and fleet
experience with these tires develops. As
mentioned previously, the agencies did
not include weight reduction in their
technology adoption projections, but
certain types of weight reduction could
be used as a compliance pathway, as
discussed in Section IV.D.1.d above.
The adoption rates shown in these
tables are one set of many possible
combinations that box trailer
manufacturers could apply to achieve
the same average stringency. If a
manufacturer chose these adoption
rates, a variety of technology options
exist within the aerodynamic bins, and
several models of LRR tires exist for the
levels shown. Alternatively,
technologies from other aero bins and
tire levels could be used to comply. It
should be noted that manufacturers are
not limited to aerodynamic and tire
technologies, since these are
performance-based standards, and
manufacturers would not be constrained
to adopt any particular way to
demonstrate compliance. Certain types
of weight reduction, for example, may
be used as a compliance pathway, as
discussed in Section IV.D.1.d above.
Similar to our analyses of the
reference cases, the agencies derived a
single set of performance parameters for
each subcategory by weighting the
performance levels included in Table
IV–8 by the corresponding adoption
rates. These performance parameters
represent an average compliant vehicle
for each trailer subcategory and we
present these values in the tables. The
2024 MY adoption rates would continue
to apply for the partial-aero box trailers
in 2027 and later model years.
TABLE IV–13—PROJECTED ADOPTION RATES AND AVERAGE PERFORMANCE PARAMETERS FOR LONG BOX TRAILERS
Technology
Long box dry vans
Model year
Long box refrigerated vans
2018
Aerodynamic Technologies:
Bin I ...........................................................
Bin II ..........................................................
Bin III .........................................................
Bin IV ........................................................
Bin V .........................................................
Bin VI ........................................................
Bin VII .......................................................
Bin VIII ......................................................
Average Delta CDA (m2) a .................
Trailer Tire Rolling Resistance:
Baseline tires ............................................
Level 1 tires ..............................................
Level 2 tires ..............................................
Average CRR (kg/ton) a ......................
Tire Inflation System:
ATI ............................................................
Average ATI Reduction (%) a ............
Weight Reduction (lbs):
Weight b .....................................................
2021
2024
2027
2018
2021
2024
2027
5%
................
30%
60%
5%
................
................
................
0.4
................
................
5%
55%
10%
30%
................
................
0.7
................
................
................
25%
10%
65%
................
................
0.8
................
................
................
................
10%
50%
40%
................
1.1
5%
................
30%
60%
5%
................
................
................
0.4
................
................
5%
55%
10%
30%
................
................
0.7
................
................
................
25%
10%
65%
................
................
0.8
................
................
................
................
20%
60%
20%
................
1.0
15%
85%
................
5.2
5%
95%
................
5.1
5%
................
95%
4.8
5%
................
95%
4.8
15%
85%
................
5.2
5%
95%
................
5.1
5%
................
95%
4.8
5%
................
95%
4.8
85
1.3%
95
1.4%
95
1.4%
95
1.4%
85
1.3%
95
1.4%
95
1.4%
95
1.4%
................
................
................
................
................
................
................
................
Notes: A blank cell indicates a zero value.
a Combines projected adoption rates with performance levels shown in Table IV–8.
b This set of proposed adoption rates did not apply any assumed weight reduction to meet the proposed standards for these trailers.
TABLE IV–14—PROJECTED ADOPTION RATES AND AVERAGE PERFORMANCE PARAMETERS FOR SHORT BOX TRAILERS
Technology
Short box dry vans
Model year
Short box refrigerated vans
2018
2021
2024
2027
2018
2021
2024
2027
100%
................
................
................
................
................
................
................
0.4
5%
95%
................
................
................
................
................
................
0.7
................
70%
30%
................
................
................
................
................
0.8
................
30%
60%
10%
................
................
................
................
1.1
100%
................
................
................
................
................
................
................
0.4
5%
95%
................
................
................
................
................
................
0.7
................
70%
30%
................
................
................
................
................
0.8
................
55%
40%
5%
................
................
................
................
1.0
15%
85%
................
5.2
5%
95%
................
5.1
5%
................
95%
4.8
5%
................
95%
4.8
15%
85%
................
5.2
5%
95%
................
5.1
5%
................
95%
4.8
5%
................
95%
4.8
ebenthall on DSK3VPTVN1PROD with MISCELLANEOUS
Technologies: a
Aerodynamic
Bin I ...........................................................
Bin II ..........................................................
Bin III .........................................................
Bin IV ........................................................
Bin V .........................................................
Bin VI ........................................................
Bin VII .......................................................
Bin VIII ......................................................
Average Delta CDA (m2) b .................
Trailer Tire Rolling Resistance:
Baseline tires ............................................
Level 1 tires ..............................................
Level 2 tires ..............................................
Average CRR (kg/ton) b ......................
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TABLE IV–14—PROJECTED ADOPTION RATES AND AVERAGE PERFORMANCE PARAMETERS FOR SHORT BOX TRAILERS—
Continued
Technology
Short box dry vans
Model year
2018
Tire Inflation System:
ATI ....................................................................
Average ATI Reduction (%) c ............
Weight Reduction (lbs):
Weight b .....................................................
2021
Short box refrigerated vans
2024
2027
2018
2021
2024
2027
85%
1.3%
95%
1.4%
95%
1.4%
95%
1.4%
85%
1.3%
95%
1.4%
95%
1.4%
95%
1.4%
................
................
................
................
................
................
................
................
Notes: A blank cell indicates a zero value.
a The majority of short box trailers are 28 feet in length. We recognize that they are often operated in tandem, which limits the technologies
that can be applied (for example, boat tails).
b Combines projected adoption rates with performance levels shown in Table IV–8.
c This set of proposed adoption rates did not apply any assumed weight reduction to meet the proposed standards for these trailers.
Non-aero box trailers, with two or
more work-related special components,
and non-box trailers are not shown in
the tables above. We are proposing that
manufacturers of these trailers meet
design-based (i.e., technology-based)
standards, instead of performance-based
standards that would apply to other
trailers. That is, manufacturers of these
trailers would not need to use
aerodynamic technologies, but they
would need to use appropriate lower
rolling resistance tires and ATI systems,
based on our assessments of the typical
CO2 and fuel consumption performance
would require manufacturers to use tires
meeting a rolling resistance of Level 1
or better and to install ATI systems on
all non-box and non-aero box trailers. In
2024, the proposed standards would
require manufacturers to use LRR tires
at a Level 2 or better, and to still install
ATI systems. We seek comment on all
aspects of this design-based standards
concept. We also seek comment on
providing manufacturers with the
option of adopting Level 2 tires in the
early years of the program (MY 2018–
2023) and avoiding the use of ATI
systems if they chose.
of this equipment (see Section IV.2.c).
Thus, we are projecting 100 percent
adoption rates of these technologies at
each stage of the program. Compared to
manufacturers that needed aerodynamic
technologies to comply, the approach
for non-aero box trailers and non-box
trailers would result in a significantly
lower compliance burden for
manufacturers by reducing the amount
of tracking and eliminating the need to
calculate a compliance value (see
Section IV. F.). The agencies are
proposing these design standards in two
stages. In 2018, the proposed standards
TABLE IV–15—PROJECTED ADOPTION RATES AND AVERAGE PERFORMANCE PARAMETERS FOR NON-AERO BOX AND NONBOX TRAILERS
Technology
Non-aero box & non-box trailers
Model year
2018
ebenthall on DSK3VPTVN1PROD with MISCELLANEOUS
Aerodynamic Technologies:
Bin I ..........................................................................................................
Bin II .........................................................................................................
Bin III ........................................................................................................
Bin IV ........................................................................................................
Bin V .........................................................................................................
Bin VI ........................................................................................................
Bin VII .......................................................................................................
Bin VIII ......................................................................................................
Average Delta CDA (m2) a .................................................................
Trailer Tire Rolling Resistance:
Baseline tires ............................................................................................
Level 1 tires ..............................................................................................
Level 2 tires ..............................................................................................
Average CRR (kg/ton) a ......................................................................
Tire Inflation System:
ATI ............................................................................................................
Average ATI Reduction (%) a ............................................................
Weight Reduction (lbs):
Weight b .....................................................................................................
2021
2024
2027
100%
........................
........................
........................
........................
........................
........................
........................
0.0
100%
........................
........................
........................
........................
........................
........................
........................
0.0
100%
........................
........................
........................
........................
........................
........................
........................
0.0
100%
........................
........................
........................
........................
........................
........................
........................
0.0
........................
100%
........................
5.1
........................
100%
........................
5.1
........................
........................
100%
4.7
........................
........................
100%
4.7
100%
1.5%
100%
1.5%
100%
1.5%
100%
1.5%
........................
........................
........................
........................
Notes: A blank cell indicates a zero value.
a Combines projected adoption rates with performance levels shown in Table IV–8.
b This set of adoption rates did not apply weight reduction to meet the proposed standards for these trailers.
We request comment and any data
related to our projections of technology
adoption rates. The following section (d)
explains how the agencies combined
these adoption rates with the
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performance values shown previously to
calculate the proposed standards.
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(e) Derivation of the Proposed Standards
The average performance parameters
from Table IV–14, and Table IV–15 were
applied as input values to the GEM
vehicle simulation to derive the
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proposed HD Phase 2 fuel consumption
and CO2 emissions standards for each
subcategory of trailers. The proposed
standards are shown in Table IV–16.
The proposed standards for partial-aero
trailers, which are not explicitly shown
in Table IV–16, would be the same as
their full-aero counterparts through MY
2026. In MY 2027 and later, partial aero
shorter would achieve reductions of two
percent, three percent and four percent
compared to their reference cases. The
tire technologies used on non-box and
non-aero box trailers would provide
reductions of two percent in the first
two stages and achieve three percent by
2027.
trailers would continue to meet the MY
2024 standards.
Over the four stages of the proposed
rule, box trailers longer than 50 feet
would, on average, reduce their CO2
emissions and fuel consumption by two
percent, four percent, seven percent and
eight percent compared to their
reference cases. Box trailers 50-feet and
TABLE IV–16—PROPOSED STANDARDS FOR BOX TRAILERS
Subcategory
Dry van
Refrigerated van
Model year
Length
2018—2020 ...........................
2021—2023 ...........................
2024—2026 ...........................
2027 + ...................................
Long
EPA Standard (CO2 Grams per Ton-Mile) ..
Voluntary NHTSA Standard (Gallons per
1,000 Ton-Mile).
EPA Standard (CO2 Grams per Ton-Mile) ..
NHTSA Standard (Gallons per 1,000 TonMile).
EPA Standard (CO2 Grams per Ton-Mile) ..
NHTSA Standard (Gallons per 1,000 TonMile).
EPA Standard (CO2 Grams per Ton-Mile) ..
NHTSA Standard (Gallons per 1,000 TonMile).
It should be noted that the proposed
standards are based on highway cruise
cycles that include road grade to better
reflect real world driving and to help
recognize engine and driveline
technologies. See Section III.E. The
agencies have evaluated some alternate
road grade profiles recommended by the
National Renewable Energy Laboratory
(NREL) and have prepared possible
alternative trailer vehicle standards
based on these profiles. The agencies
request comment on this analysis,
which is available in a memorandum to
the docket.240
(f) Technology Costs for the Proposed
Standards
The agencies evaluated the
technology costs for 53-foot dry and
refrigerated vans and 28-foot dry vans,
Short
Long
Short
83
8.1532
144
14.1454
84
8.2515
147
14.4401
81
7.9568
142
13.9489
82
8.0550
146
14.3418
79
7.7603
141
13.8507
81
7.9568
144
14.1454
77
7.5639
140
13.7525
80
7.8585
144
14.1454
which we believe are representative of
the majority of trailers in the 50-foot and
longer and shorter than 50-foot
categories, respectively. We identified
costs for each technology package
evaluated and projected the costs for
each year of the program. A summary of
the technology costs is included in
Table IV–17 through Table IV–20 for
MYs 2018 through 2027, with additional
details available in the draft RIA
Chapter 2.12. Costs shown in the
following tables are for the specific
model year indicated and are
incremental to the average reference
case costs, which includes some level of
adoption of these technologies as shown
in Table IV–13. Therefore, the
technology costs in the following tables
reflect the average cost expected for
each of the indicated trailer classes.
Note that these costs do not represent
actual costs for the individual
components because some fraction of
the component costs has been
subtracted to reflect some use of these
components in the reference case. For
more on the estimated technology costs
exclusive of adoption rates, refer to
Chapter 2.12 of the draft RIA. These
costs include indirect costs via markups
and reflect lower costs over time due to
learning impacts. For a description of
the markups and learning impacts
considered in this analysis and how
technology costs for other years are
thereby affected, refer to Chapter 7 of
the draft RIA. We welcome comment on
the technology costs, markups, and
learning impacts.
TABLE IV–17—TRAILER TECHNOLOGY INCREMENTAL COSTS IN THE 2018 MODEL YEAR
[2012$]
53-foot
refrigerated
van
ebenthall on DSK3VPTVN1PROD with MISCELLANEOUS
53-foot
dry van
28-foot
dry van
Non-aero
& non-box
Aerodynamics ..................................................................................................
Tires .................................................................................................................
Tire inflation system .........................................................................................
$285
65
239
$285
65
239
$0
78
435
$0
185
683
Total ..........................................................................................................
588
588
514
868
240 Memorandum dated May 2015 on Analysis of
Possible Tractor, Trailer, and Vocational Vehicle
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Standards Based on Alternative Road Grade
Profiles. Docket EPA–HQ–OAR–2014–0827.
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TABLE IV–18—TRAILER TECHNOLOGY INCREMENTAL COSTS IN THE 2021 MODEL YEAR
[2012$]
53-foot
refrigerated
van
53-foot
dry van
28-foot
dry van
Non-aero
& non-box
Aerodynamics ..................................................................................................
Tires .................................................................................................................
Tire inflation system .........................................................................................
$602
65
234
$602
65
234
$468
79
426
$0
175
632
Total ..........................................................................................................
901
901
974
807
TABLE IV–19—TRAILER TECHNOLOGY INCREMENTAL COSTS IN THE 2024 MODEL YEAR
[2012$]
53-foot
dry van
53-foot
refrigerated
van
28-foot
dry van
Non-aero
& non-box
Aerodynamics ..................................................................................................
Tires .................................................................................................................
Tire inflation system .........................................................................................
$836
61
220
$836
61
220
$608
76
412
$0
160
578
Total ..........................................................................................................
1,116
1,116
1,097
739
TABLE IV–20—TRAILER TECHNOLOGY INCREMENTAL COSTS IN THE 2027 MODEL YEAR
[2012$]
53-foot
dry van
53-foot
refrigerated
van
28-foot
dry van
Non-aero
& non-box
Aerodynamics ..................................................................................................
Tires .................................................................................................................
Tire inflation system .........................................................................................
$1,163
54
192
$1,034
54
192
$788
74
391
$0
155
549
Total ..........................................................................................................
1,409
1,280
1,253
704
ebenthall on DSK3VPTVN1PROD with MISCELLANEOUS
(4) Consistency of the Proposed Trailer
Standards With the Agencies’ Legal
Authority
The agencies’ initial determination,
subject to consideration of public
comment, is that the standards
presented in the Section IV.C.2, are the
maximum feasible and appropriate
under the agencies’ respective
authorities, considering lead time, cost,
and other factors. The agencies’
proposed decisions on the stringency
and timing of the proposed standards
focused on available technology and the
consequent emission reductions and
fuel efficiency improvements associated
with use of the technology, while taking
into account the circumstances of the
trailer manufacturing sector. Trailer
manufacturers would be subject to firsttime emission control and fuel
consumption regulation under the
proposed standards. These
manufacturers are in many cases small
businesses, with limited resources to
master the mechanics of regulatory
compliance. Thus, the agencies’
proposal seeks to provide a reasonable
time for trailer manufacturers to become
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familiar with the requirements and the
proposed new compliance regime, given
the unique circumstances of the
industry and the compliance
flexibilities and optional compliance
mechanisms specially adapted for this
industry segment that we are proposing.
The stringency of the standard is
predicated on more widespread
deployment of aerodynamic and tire
technologies that are already in
commercial use. The availability,
feasibility, and level of effectiveness of
these technologies are welldocumented. Thus the agencies do not
believe that there is any issue of
technological feasibility of the proposed
standards. Among the issues reflected in
the agencies’ proposal are
considerations of cost and sufficiency of
lead-time—including lead-time not only
to deploy technological improvements,
but also this industry sector to
assimilate for the first time the
compliance mechanisms of the
proposed rule.
The highest cost shown in Table IV–
20 is associated with the long dry vans.
We project that the average cost per
trailer to meet the proposed MY 2027
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standards for these trailers would be
about $1,400, which is less than 10
percent of the cost of a new dry van
trailer (estimated to be about $20,000).
Other trailer types have lower projected
technology costs, and many have higher
purchase prices. As a result, we project
that the per-trailer costs for all trailers
covered in this regulation will be less
than 10 percent of the cost of a new
trailer. This trend is consistent with the
expected average control costs for Phase
2 tractors, which are also less than 10
percent of typical tractor costs (see
Section III).
The agencies believe these
technologies can be adopted at the rates
the standards are predicated on within
the proposed lead-time, as discussed
above in Section IV.C.(3). Moreover, we
project that most owners would rapidly
recover the initial cost of these
technologies due to the associated fuel
savings, usually in less than two years,
as shown in the payback analysis in
Section IX. This payback period is
generally considered reasonable in the
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trailer industry for investments that
reduce fuel consumption.241
Overall, as discussed above in
IV.D.3.c in the context of our assumed
technology adoption rates, the gradual
increase in stringency of the proposed
trailer program over the phase-in period
recognizes two important factors that
the agencies carefully considered in
developing this proposed rule. One
factor is that assumed adoption of
technologies many of the aerodynamic
technologies that box trailer
manufacturers would likely choose are
available today and clearly
technologically feasible throughout the
phase-period. At the same time, we
recognize that the adoption of these
technologies across the industry scale
envisioned by the proposed program
would likely take time. The standards
we are proposing in the interim years
represent steady improvement in
average aerodynamic performance
toward the final MY 2027 standards.
E. Alternative Standards and Feasibility
Considered
As discussed in Section X, the
agencies evaluated several different
regulatory alternatives representing
different levels of stringency for the
Phase 2 program. The results of the
analysis of these proposed alternatives
are discussed below in Section X of the
preamble. The agencies believe each
alternative is feasible from a technical
standpoint. However, each successive
alternative increases costs and
complexity of compliance for the
manufacturers, which can be a
prohibitive burden on the large number
of small businesses in the industry.
Table IV–21 provides a summary of the
alternatives considered in this proposal.
TABLE IV–21—SUMMARY OF ALTERNATIVES CONSIDERED FOR THE PROPOSED RULEMAKING
Alternative 1 .................................................................
Alternative 2 .................................................................
Alternative 3 (Proposed Alternative) ............................
Alternative 4 .................................................................
Alternative 5 .................................................................
While we welcome comment on any
of these alternatives, we are specifically
requesting comment on Alternative 4 for
the trailer program identified as
Alternative 4 above and in Section X.
The same general technology
effectiveness values were considered
and much of the feasibility analysis was
the same in this alternative and in the
proposed alternative, but Alternative 4
applies the adoption rates of higherperforming aerodynamic technologies
from Alternative 3 at earlier stages for
box trailers. This accelerated alternative
achieves the same final fuel
consumption and CO2 reductions as our
proposed alternative three years in
advance. The following sections detail
the adoption rates, reductions and costs
projected for this alternative.
No action alternative.
Expand the use of aerodynamic and tire technologies at SmartWay levels to all 53-foot
box trailers.
Adoption of advanced aerodynamic and tire technologies on all box trailers.
Adoption of tire technologies on non-box trailers.
Same technology and application assumptions as Alternative 3 with an accelerated introduction schedule.
Aggressive adoption of advance aerodynamic and tire technologies for all box trailers.
Adoption of aerodynamic and tire technologies for some tank, flatbed, and container
chassis trailers.
Adoption of tire technologies for the remaining non-box trailers.
(1) Effectiveness, Adoption Rates, and
Technology Costs for Alternative 4
Alternative 4 includes the same trailer
subcategories and same trailer
technologies as the proposed
alternative. Therefore, the zerotechnology baseline trailers (Table IV–
7), reference case trailers (Table IV–10)
and performance levels (Table IV–8)
described in Section IV. D. apply for
this analysis as well. The following
sections describe the adoption rates of
this accelerated alternative and the
associated benefits and costs.
(a) Projected Technology Adoption
Rates for Alternative 4
The adoption rates and average
performance parameters projected by
the agencies for Alternative 4 are shown
in Table IV–22 and Table IV–23.
Adoption rates for non-aero box and
non-box trailers remain unchanged from
the proposed standards and they are not
repeated in this section. From the tables,
it can be seen that the 2018 MY
aerodynamic technology adoption rates
and the tire technology adoption rates
for all model years are identical to those
presented previously for the proposed
standards. The aerodynamic projections
for MY 2021 and MY 2024 in this
accelerated alternative are the same as
those projected for MY 2024 and MY
2027 of the proposed standards, but are
applied three years earlier. In this
alternative, the 2021 MY adoption rates
would continue to apply for the partialaero box trailers in 2024 and later model
years.
TABLE IV–22—ADOPTION RATES AND AVERAGE PERFORMANCE PARAMETERS FOR THE LONG BOX TRAILERS IN
ALTERNATIVE 4
Technology
Long box
dry vans
Long box
refrigerated vans
ebenthall on DSK3VPTVN1PROD with MISCELLANEOUS
Model year
2018
2021
2024
2018
2021
2024
Aerodynamic Technologies: a
Bin I ...................................................
Bin II ..................................................
Bin III .................................................
Bin IV ................................................
Bin V .................................................
Bin VI ................................................
5%
........................
30%
60%
5%
........................
........................
........................
........................
25%
10%
65%
........................
........................
........................
........................
10%
50%
5%
........................
30%
60%
5%
........................
........................
........................
........................
25%
10%
65%
........................
........................
........................
........................
20%
60%
241 Roeth, Mike, et al. ‘‘Barriers to Increased
Adoption of Fuel Efficiency Technologies in Freight
Trucking’’. July 2013. International Council for
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www.theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/
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ICCT-NACFE-CSS_Barriers_Report_Final_
20130722.pdf.
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TABLE IV–22—ADOPTION RATES AND AVERAGE PERFORMANCE PARAMETERS FOR THE LONG BOX TRAILERS IN
ALTERNATIVE 4—Continued
Technology
Long box
dry vans
Long box
refrigerated vans
Model year
2018
2021
2024
2018
2021
2024
Bin VII ...............................................
Bin VIII ..............................................
Average Delta CDA (m2) a ..........
Trailer Tire Rolling Resistance:
Baseline tires ....................................
Level 1 tires ......................................
Level 2 tires ......................................
Average CRR (kg/ton) a ...............
Tire Inflation System:
ATI ....................................................
Average ATI Reduction (%)a .....
Weight Reduction (lbs):
Weight b .............................................
........................
........................
0.4
........................
........................
0.8
40%
........................
1.1
........................
........................
0.4
........................
........................
0.8
20%
........................
1.0
15
85
........................
5.2
5
95
........................
5.1
5
........................
95
4.8
15
85
........................
5.2
5
95
........................
5.1
5
........................
95
4.8
85%
1.3%
95%
1.4%
95%
1.4%
85%
1.3%
95%
1.4%
95%
1.4%
........................
........................
........................
........................
........................
........................
Notes: A blank cell indicates a zero value.
a Combines adoption rates with performance levels shown in Table IV–8.
b This set of adoption rates did not apply weight reduction to meet the proposed standards for these trailers.
TABLE IV–23—ADOPTION RATES AND AVERAGE PERFORMANCE PARAMETERS FOR THE SHORT BOX TRAILERS IN
ALTERNATIVE 4
Technology
Short box
dry vans
Model Year
Short box
refrigerated vans
2018
Aerodynamic Technologies a
Bin I ...................................................
Bin II ..................................................
Bin III .................................................
Bin IV ................................................
Bin V .................................................
Bin VI ................................................
Bin VII ...............................................
Bin VIII ..............................................
Average Delta CDA (m2) b ..........
Trailer Tire Rolling Resistance:
Baseline tires ....................................
Level 1 tires ......................................
Level 2 tires ......................................
Average CRR (kg/ton) b ...............
Tire Inflation System:
ATI ....................................................
Average ATI Reduction (%) b ....
Weight Reduction (lbs):
Weight c .............................................
2021
2024
2018
2021
2024
100%
........................
........................
........................
........................
........................
........................
........................
0.4
........................
70%
30%
........................
........................
........................
........................
........................
0.8
........................
30%
60%
10%
........................
........................
........................
........................
1.1
100%
........................
........................
........................
........................
........................
........................
........................
0.4
........................
70%
30%
........................
........................
........................
........................
........................
0.8
........................
55%
40%
5%
........................
........................
........................
........................
1.0
15%
85%
........................
5.2
5%
95%
........................
5.1
5%
........................
95%
4.8
15%
85%
........................
5.2
5%
95%
........................
5.1
5%
........................
95%
4.8
85%
1.3%
95%
1.4%
95%
1.4%
85%
1.3%
95%
1.4%
95%
1.4%
........................
........................
........................
........................
........................
........................
Notes: A blank cell indicates a zero value.
a The majority of short box trailers are 28 feet in length. We recognize that they are often operated in tandem, which limits the technologies
that can be applied (for example, boat tails).
b Combines adoption rates with performance levels shown in Table IV–8.
c This set of adoption rates did not apply weight reduction to meet the proposed standards for these trailers.
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(b) Derivation of the Standards for
Alternative 4
Similar to the proposed standards of
Section IV. D. (3) (d), the agencies
applied the technology performance
values from Table IV–22 and Table IV–
23 as GEM inputs to derive the
proposed standards for each
subcategory.
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Table IV–24 shows the resulting
standards for Alternative 4. Over the
three phases of the alternative, box
trailers longer than 50 feet would, on
average, reduce their CO2 emissions and
fuel consumption by two percent, six
percent and eight percent. Box trailers
50-foot and shorter would achieve
reductions of two percent, three percent,
and four percent compared to the
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reference case. Partial-aero box trailers
would continue to be subject to the 2021
MY standards for MY 2024 and later.
The non-aero box and non-box trailers
would meet the same standards as
shown in the proposed Alternative 3
and achieve the same two and three
percent benefits as shown in the
proposed alternative.
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TABLE IV–24—TRAILER CO2 AND FUEL CONSUMPTION STANDARDS FOR BOX TRAILERS IN ALTERNATIVE 4
Subcategory
Dry van
Refrigerated van
Model year
Length
2018–2020 ............................
2021–2023 ............................
2024+ ....................................
Long
EPA Standard ..............................................
(CO2 Grams per Ton-Mile).
Voluntary NHTSA Standard .........................
(Gallons per 1,000 Ton-Mile).
EPA Standard ..............................................
(CO2 Grams per Ton-Mile).
NHTSA Standard .........................................
(Gallons per 1,000 Ton-Mile).
EPA Standard ..............................................
(CO2 Grams per Ton-Mile).
NHTSA Standard .........................................
(Gallons per 1,000 Ton-Mile).
(c) Costs Associated With Alternative 4
A summary of the technology costs is
included in Table IV–25 to Table IV–
27for MYs 2018, 2021 and 2024, with
additional details available in the draft
RIA Chapter 2.12. Costs shown in the
following tables are for the specific
model year indicated and are
incremental to the average reference
case costs, which includes some level of
Short
Long
Short
83
144
84
147
8.1532
14.1454
8.2515
14.4401
80
142
81
145
7.8585
13.9489
7.9568
14.2436
77
140
80
144
7.5639
13.7525
7.8585
14.1454
adoption of these technologies as shown
in Table IV–10. Therefore, the
technology costs in the following tables
reflect the average cost expected for
each of the indicated trailer classes.
Note that these costs do not represent
actual costs for the individual
components because some fraction of
the component costs has been
subtracted to reflect some use of these
components in the reference case. For
more on the estimated technology costs
exclusive of adoption rates, refer to
Chapter 2.12 of the draft RIA. These
costs include indirect costs via markups
and reflect lower costs over time due to
learning impacts. For a description of
the markups and learning impacts
considered in this analysis and how it
impacts technology costs for other years,
refer to the draft RIA.
TABLE IV–25—TRAILER TECHNOLOGY INCREMENTAL COSTS IN THE 2018 MODEL YEAR FOR ALTERNATIVE 4
[2012$]
53-foot
refrigerated
van
53-foot
dry van
28-foot
dry van
Non-aero &
non-box
Aerodynamics ..................................................................................................
Tires .................................................................................................................
Tire inflation system .........................................................................................
$285
65
239
$285
65
239
$0
78
435
$0
185
683
Total ..........................................................................................................
588
588
514
868
TABLE IV–26—TRAILER TECHNOLOGY INCREMENTAL COSTS IN THE 2021 MODEL YEAR FOR ALTERNATIVE 4
[2012$]
53-foot
dry van
53-foot
refrigerated
van
28-foot
dry van
Non-aero &
non-box
Aerodynamics ..................................................................................................
Tires .................................................................................................................
Tire inflation system .........................................................................................
$908
65
234
$908
65
234
$641
79
426
$0
175
632
Total ..........................................................................................................
1,207
1,207
1,146
807
TABLE IV–27—TRAILER TECHNOLOGY INCREMENTAL COSTS IN THE 2024 MODEL YEAR FOR ALTERNATIVE 4
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[2012$]
53-foot
dry van
53-foot
refrigerated
van
28-foot
dry van
Non-aero &
non-box
Aerodynamics ..................................................................................................
Tires .................................................................................................................
Tire inflation system .........................................................................................
1,223
61
220
1,090
61
220
816
76
412
0
160
578
Total ..........................................................................................................
1,504
1,371
1,304
739
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The agencies believe Alternative 4 has
the potential to be the maximum
feasible and appropriate alternative.
However, based on the evidence
currently before us, EPA and NHTSA
have outstanding questions regarding
relative risks and benefits of Alternative
4 due to the timeframe envisioned by
that alternative. As discussed earlier,
the ability for manufacturers in this
industry to broadly take the necessary
technical steps while becoming familiar
with first-time regulatory
responsibilities may be significantly
limited with three fewer years of leadtime. As reinforced in the SBAR Panel
Report, this challenge would not be
equal across the industry, often falling
more heavily on smaller trailer
manufacturers.
The agencies request comment on the
feasibility and costs for trailer
manufacturers to achieve the
Alternative 4 standards by applying
advanced aerodynamic technologies
with three years less lead-time than
Alternative 3 would provide. The
agencies also request comment on
particular burdens that these aggressive
adoption rates could have on small
business trailer manufacturers.
F. Trailer Standards: Compliance and
Flexibilities
Under the proposed structure, trailer
manufacturers would be required to
obtain a certificate of conformity from
EPA before introducing into commerce
new trailers subject to the proposed new
trailer CO2 and fuel consumption
standards. See CAA section 206(a). The
certification process the agencies are
proposing for trailer manufacturers is
very similar in its basic structure to the
process for the tractor program. This
structure involves pre-certification
activities, the certification application
and its approval, and end-of-year
reporting.
In this section, the agencies first
describe how we developed compliance
equations based on the GEM vehicle
simulation tool and the general
certification process, followed by a
discussion of the proposed test
procedures for measuring the
performance of tires and aerodynamic
technologies and how manufacturers
would apply test results toward
compliance and certification. The
section closes with discussions of
several other proposed certification and
compliance provisions as well as
proposed provisions to provide
manufacturers with compliance
flexibility.
(1) Trailer Compliance Using a GEMBased Equation
The agencies are committed to
introducing a compliance program for
trailer manufacturers that is
straightforward, technically robust,
transparent, and that minimizes new
administrative burdens on the industry.
As described earlier in this section and
in Chapter 4 of the draft RIA, GEM is a
customized vehicle simulation model
that EPA developed for the Phase 1
program to relate measured
aerodynamic and tire performance
values, as well as other parameters, to
CO2 and fuel consumption without
performing full-vehicle testing. As with
the Phase 1 and proposed Phase 2
tractor and vocational vehicle programs,
the proposed trailer program uses GEM
in evaluating emissions and fuel
consumption in developing the
proposed standards. However, unlike
the tractor and vocational vehicle
programs, we are not proposing to use
GEM directly to demonstrate
compliance with the trailer standards.
Instead, we have developed an equation
based on GEM that calculates CO2 and
fuel consumption from performance
inputs, but without running the model.
For the proposed trailer program, the
trailer characteristics that a
manufacturer would supply to the
equation are aerodynamic
improvements (i.e., a change in the
aerodynamic drag area, delta CDA), tire
rolling resistance (i.e., coefficient of
rolling resistance, CRR), the presence of
an automatic tire inflation (ATI) system,
and the use of light-weight components
from a pre-determined list. The use of
the equation would quantify the overall
performance of the trailer in terms of
CO2 emissions and fuel consumption on
a per ton-mile basis.
Chapter 2.10.6 of the draft RIA
provides a full a description of the
development and evaluation of the
equation proposed for trailer
compliance. Equation IV–1 is a single
linear regression curve that can be used
for all box trailers in this proposal.
Unique constant values, C1 through C4,
are applied for each of the trailer
subcategories as shown in Table IV–28.
Constant C5 is equal to 0.985 for any
trailer that installs an ATI system
(accounting for the 1.5 percent
reduction given for use of ATI) or 1.0 for
trailers without ATI systems. This
equation was found to accurately
reproduce the results of GEM for each
of the four box van subcategories and
the agencies are proposing that trailer
manufacturers use Equation IV–1 when
calculating CO2 for compliance.
Manufacturers would use a conversion
of 10,180 grams of CO2 per gallon of
diesel to calculate the corresponding
fuel consumption values for compliance
with NHTSA’s regulations. See 40 CFR
1037.515 and 49 CFR 535.6.
y = [C1 + C2·(TRRL) + C3·(DCDA) +
C4·(WR)]·C5
(IV–1)
TABLE IV–28—CONSTANTS FOR GEM-BASED TRAILER COMPLIANCE EQUATION
Trailer subcategory
C1
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Long Dry Van ...................................................................................................
Long Refrigerated Van ....................................................................................
Short Dry Van ..................................................................................................
Short Refrigerated Van ....................................................................................
The constants for long vans apply for
all dry or refrigerated vans longer than
50-feet and the constants for short vans
apply for all dry or refrigerated vans 50feet and shorter. These long and short
van constants are based on GEMsimulated tractors pulling 53-foot and
solo 28-foot trailers, respectively. As a
result, we are proposing that
aerodynamic testing to obtain a trailer’s
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C2
77.4
78.3
134.0
136.3
performance parameters for Equation
IV–1 be performed using consistent
trailer sizes (i.e., all lengths of short
vans be tested as a solo 28-foot van, and
all lengths of long vans be tested as a 53foot van). More information about
aerodynamic testing is provided in
Section IV. F. (3).
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C3
1.7
1.8
2.2
2.4
¥6.1
¥6.0
¥10.5
¥10.3
C4
¥0.001
¥0.001
¥0.003
¥0.003
(2) General Certification Process
Under the proposed process for
certification, trailer manufacturers
would be required to apply to EPA for
certification and would provide
performance test data (see 40 CFR
1037.205) in their applications.242 A
242 As with the tractor program, manufacturers
would submit their applications to EPA, which
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staff member from EPA’s Compliance
Division (in the Office of Transportation
and Air Quality) would be assigned to
each trailer manufacturer to help them
through the compliance process.
Although not required, we recommend
that manufacturers arrange to meet with
the agencies to discuss compliance
plans and obtain any preliminary
approvals (e.g., appropriate test
methods) before applying for
certification.
Trailer manufacturers would submit
their applications through the EPA
VERIFY electronic database, and EPA
would issue certificates based on the
information provided. At the end of the
model year, trailer manufacturers would
submit an end-of-year report to the
agencies to complete their annual
obligations.
The proposed EPA certification
provisions also contain provisions for
applying to the NHTSA program. EPA
and NHTSA would coordinate on any
enforcement action required.
(a) Preliminary Considerations for
Compliance
Prior to submitting an application for
a certificate, a manufacturer would
choose the technologies they plan to
offer their customers, obtain
performance information for these
technologies, and identify any trailers in
their production line that qualify for
exclusion from the program.243
Manufacturers that choose to perform
aerodynamic or tire testing would
obtain approval of test methods and
perform preliminary testing as needed.
During this time, the manufacturer
would also decide the strategy they
intend to use for compliance by
identifying ‘‘families’’ for the trailers
they produce. A family is a grouping of
similar products that would all be
subject to the same standard and
covered by a single certificate.
At its simplest, the program would
allow all products in each of the trailer
subcategories to be certified as separate
families. That is, long box dry vans,
short box dry vans, long refrigerated
vans, short refrigerated vans, non-box
trailers, partial-aero trailers (long and
short box, dry and refrigerated vans),
and non-aero trailers, could each be
certified as separate trailer families. If a
manufacturer chooses this approach, all
products within a family would need to
meet or do better than the standards for
would then share them with NHTSA. Obtaining an
approved certificate of conformity from EPA is the
first step in complying with the NHTSA program.
243 Trailers that meet the qualifications for
exclusion do not require a certificate of conformity
and manufacturers do not have to submit an
application to EPA for these trailers.
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that trailer subcategory. This is not to
say that, for example, every long box dry
van model would need to have identical
technologies like skirts, tires, and tire
inflation systems, but that every model
in that family would need to have a
combination of technologies that had
performance representative of testing
demonstrated for that family. (Because
the manufacturer would not be using
averaging provisions, a trailer that
‘‘over-complied’’ could not offset a
trailer that did not meet that family’s
emission limit).
If a trailer manufacturer wishes to
take advantage of the proposed
averaging provisions, it could divide the
trailer models in each of the standard
box trailer categories (i.e., not including
the non-box trailer or non-aero box
trailer categories244) into subfamilies.
Each subfamily could be a grouping of
trailers that have with similar
performance levels, even if they use
different technologies. We call the
performance levels for each subfamily
as ‘‘Family Emission Limits’’ (FELs). A
long box dry van manufacturer could
choose, for example, to create two or
more subfamilies in its long box dry van
family. Trailers in one or more of these
subfamilies could be allowed to undercomply with the standard (e.g., if the
manufacturer chose not to apply ATI or
chose tires with higher rolling resistance
levels) as long as the performance of the
other subfamilies over-comply with the
standard (e.g., if the manufacturer
applied higher-performing skirts) such
that the average of all of the subfamilies’
FELs met or did better than the
stringency for that family on a
production-weighted basis. Section
IV.F.6.a below further discusses how the
proposed averaging program would
function for any such trailer
subfamilies.
b) Submitting a Certification
Application and Request for a
Certificate to EPA
Once the preliminary steps are
completed, the manufacturer can
prepare and submit applications to EPA
for certificate of conformity for each of
its trailer families. The contents of the
application are specified in 40 CFR
1037.205, though not all items listed in
the regulation are applicable to each
trailer manufacturer.
For the early years of the program
(i.e., 2018 through 2020), the
application must specify whether the
244 The agencies are proposing that manufacturers
implement 100 percent of their non-box and special
purpose box trailers with automatic tire inflation
systems and tires meeting the specified rolling
resistance levels. As a result, averaging provisions
do not apply to these trailer subcategories.
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trailer manufacturer is opting into the
NHTSA voluntary program to ensure the
information is transferred between the
agencies. It must also include a
description of the emission controls that
a manufacturer intends to offer. These
emission controls could include
aerodynamic features, tire models, tire
inflation systems or components that
qualify for weight reduction. Basic
information about labeling, warranty,
and recommended maintenance should
also be included the application (see
Section IV.F.5 for more information).
The manufacturer would also provide
a summary of the plans to comply with
the standard. This information would
include a description of the trailer
family and subfamilies (if applicable)
covered by the certificate and projected
sales of its products. Manufacturers that
do not participate in averaging would
include information on the lowest level
of CO2 and fuel consumption
performance offered in the trailer
family. Manufacturers that choose to
average within their families would
include performance information for the
projected highest production trailer
configuration, as well as the lowest and
the highest performing configurations
within that trailer family.
(c) End-of-Year Obligations
After the end of each year, all
manufacturers would need to submit a
report to the agencies presenting
production-related data for that year
(see 40 CFR 1037.250 and 49 CFR
535.8). In addition, manufacturers
participating in the averaging program
would submit an end-of-year report
containing both emissions and fuel
consumption information for both
agencies. This report would include the
year’s final compliance data (as
calculated using the compliance
equation) and actual sales in order to
demonstrate that the trailers either met
the standards for that year or that the
manufacturer generated a deficit to be
reconciled within the next three years
under the averaging provisions (see 40
CFR 1037.730, 40 CFR 1037.745, and 49
CFR 535.7). All certifying manufacturers
would need to maintain records of all
the data and information required to be
supplied to EPA and NHTSA for eight
years.
(3) Trailer Certification Test Protocols
The Clean Air Act specifies that
compliance with emission standards for
motor vehicles be demonstrated using
emission test data (see CAA section
206(a) and (b)). The Act does not require
the use of specific technologies or
designs. The agencies are proposing that
the compliance equation shown in
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Section IV. F. (1) function as the official
‘‘test procedure’’ for quantifying CO2
and fuel consumption performance for
trailer compliance and certification (as
opposed to GEM, which serves this
function in the tractor and vocational
vehicle programs). Manufacturers would
insert performance information from the
trailer technologies applied into the
equation in order to calculate their
impact on overall trailer performance.
The agencies are proposing to assign
performance levels to ATI systems and
specific weight reduction values to predetermined component substitutions.
Aerodynamic and tire rolling resistance
performance would be obtained by the
trailer manufacturers. The following
sections describe the approved
performance tests for tire rolling
resistance and aerodynamic drag. Nonbox and non-aero box trailers have tire
requirements only. Manufacturers of
these trailers will only need to obtain
results from the tire performance tests.
Long and short box trailers are expected
to use aerodynamic and tire
technologies to meet the proposed
standards and will need to obtain test
results from both procedures. See
generally proposed 40 CFR part 1037,
subpart F, for full description of the
proposed performance tests, and see in
particular proposed section 40 CFR
1037.515.
(a) Trailer Tire Performance Testing
Under Phase 1, tractor and vocational
chassis manufacturers are required to
input the tire rolling resistance
coefficient into GEM and the agencies
adopted the provisions in ISO
28580:2009(E) 245 to determine the
rolling resistance of tires. As described
in 40 CFR 1037.520(c), this measured
value, expressed as CRR, is required to
be the result of at least three repeat
measurements of three different tires of
a given design, giving a total of at least
nine data points. Manufacturers specify
a CRR value for GEM that may not be
lower than the average of these nine
results. Tire rolling resistance may be
determined by either the vehicle or tire
manufacturer. In the latter case, the tire
manufacturer would provide a signed
statement confirming that it conducted
testing in accordance with this part.
Similar to the tractor program, we
propose to extend the Phase 1 testing
provisions for tire rolling resistance to
apply to the Phase 2 box trailer program,
only without requiring the use of GEM.
The average rolling resistance value
obtained from this test would be used to
245 See https://www.iso.org/iso/iso_catalogue/
catalogue_tc/catalogue_
detail.htm?csnumber=44770.
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specify the tire rolling resistance level
(TRRL) for the trailer tires in the
compliance equation. Based on the
current practice for tractors, we expect
the trailer manufacturers to obtain these
data from tire manufacturers. We
welcome comments regarding the
proposed tire testing provisions as they
relate to the proposed trailer program.
For non-box trailers, the agencies are
proposing to use the same test methods
to evaluate tires, but are proposing to
apply a single threshold standard
instead of inputting the rolling
resistance value into the GEM equation.
Manufacturers of non-box trailers would
comply with the rolling resistance
standard by using tires with rolling
resistance below the threshold. From
the perspective of the trailer
manufacturer, this would be equivalent
to a design standard for the trailers,
even though the standard would be
expressed as a performance standard for
the tires.
The agencies are considering adopting
a program for tire manufacturers similar
to the provision described in Section IV.
F. (3) (b)(iv) for aerodynamic device
manufacturers. For aerodynamic
devices, the agencies are proposing to
allow device manufacturers to seek
preliminary approval of the
performance of their devices. Device
manufacturers would perform the
required testing of their device and
submit the performance results directly
to EPA. We are requesting comment on
a similar provision for tires. Tire
manufacturers could submit their test
data directly to EPA to show they meet
the rolling resistance requirements, and
trailer manufacturers that choose to use
approved tires would merely indicate
that in their the certification
applications.
EPA is also considering adopting
regulatory text addressing obligations
for tire manufacturers. We note that
CAA section 207(c)(1) requires ‘‘the
manufacturer’’ to remedy certain in-use
problems and does not limit this
responsibility to certificate holders. The
remedy process is generally called
recall, and the regulations for this
process are in 40 CFR part 1068, subpart
F. In the case of in-use problems with
trailer tires, EPA is requesting comment
on adding regulatory text that would
explicitly apply these provisions to tire
manufacturers. In other words, if EPA
determines that tires on certified trailers
do not conform to the regulations in
actual use, should EPA require the tire
manufacturer to recall and replace the
nonconforming tires? 246
246 EPA is considering such a requirement for
trailer tire manufacturers, but not at this time for
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(b) Trailer Aerodynamic Performance
Testing
Our proposed trailer aerodynamic test
procedures are based on the current and
proposed tractor procedures for testing
aerodynamic control devices, including
coastdown, constant speed, wind
tunnel, and computational fluid
dynamics (CFD) modeling. The purpose
of the tests is to establish an estimate of
the aerodynamic drag experienced by a
tractor-trailer vehicle in real-world
operation. In the tractor program, the
resulting CdA value represents the
aerodynamic drag of a tested tractor
assumed to be pulling a specified
standard trailer. In the proposed trailer
program, the CDA value used in the
compliance equation would represent
the tested trailer pulled by a standard
tractor.
To minimize the number of tests
required, the agencies are proposing that
devices for long trailers be evaluated
based on 53-foot trailers, and that
devices for short trailers be evaluated
based on 28-foot trailers. Details of the
test procedures can be found in 40 CFR
1037.525 and a discussion of EPA’s
aerodynamic testing program as it
relates to the proposed trailer program
are provided in the draft RIA Chapter
3.2. The following sections outline the
testing requirements proposed for the
long term trailer program, as well as
simpler testing provisions that would
apply in the nearer term.
(i) A to B Testing for Trailer
Aerodynamic Performance
A key difference between the
proposed tractor and trailer programs is
that while the tractor procedures
provide a direct measurement of an
absolute CDA value for each tractor
model, the agencies expect a majority of
the aerodynamic improvements for
trailers will be accomplished by adding
bolt-on technologies. As a result, we are
proposing to evaluate the aerodynamic
improvements for trailers by measuring
a change in CDA (delta CDA) relative to
a baseline. Specifically, we propose that
the trailer tests be performed as ‘‘A to
B’’ tests, comparing the aerodynamic
performance of a tractor-trailer without
a trailer aerodynamic device to one with
the device installed. See Draft RIA
Chapter 2.10 for more information on
this approach.
As mentioned in Section IV. F. (1)
that is consistent with the compliance
manufacturers of other heavy-duty vehicle
components. This is because, for the trailer sector,
we believe that the small business trailer
manufacturers that make up a large fraction of
companies in this industry could be uniquely
challenged if they needed to recall trailers to
replace tires.
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equations. See 40 CFR 1037.525 and 49
CFR 535.6. We believe that most trailers
longer than 50 feet with comparable
technologies would perform similarly in
aerodynamic testing. We also recognize
that devices used on some lengths of
trailers in the short-van category may
perform differently than those devices
perform when used on a representative
28-foot test trailer.
The agencies are proposing that
manufacturers have some flexibility in
the devices (or packages of devices) that
they use with box vans that have lengths
different than those of the trailers on
which the devices/packages were tested
(i.e., trailers not 53 or 28 feet long). In
such situations, a manufacturer could
use devices that they believe would be
more appropriate for the length of the
trailer they are producing, consistent
with good engineering judgement. For
example, they could use longer or
shorter side skirts than those tested on
53- or 28-foot trailers. No additional
testing would be required in order to
validate the appropriateness of using the
alternate devices on these trailers.
On average, we believe that testing of
a device on a 28-foot test trailer would
provide a conservative evaluation of the
performance of that device on other
lengths of short box trailers. We believe
that the proposed compliance approach
would effectively represent the
performance of such devices on the
majority of short van trailers, yet would
limit the number of trailers a
manufacturer would need to track and
evaluate. We request comment,
including data where possible, on
additional approaches that could be
used to address this issue of varying
performance for devices across the range
of short van lengths. Commenters
supporting an allowance or requirement
to test devices on short van trailers of
other lengths than 28 feet are
encouraged to also address how the
agencies should consider such a
provision in setting the levels of the
standards, as well as how any additional
compliance complexity would be
justified.
The agencies note that it was
relatively straightforward in Phase 1 to
establish a standard trailer with enough
specificity to ensure consistent testing
of tractors, since there are relatively
small differences in aerodynamic
performance of base-model dry van
trailers. However, as discussed in
Chapter 2.10 of the draft RIA, small
differences in tractor design can have a
significant impact on overall tractortrailer aerodynamic performance. An
advantage of an A to B test approach for
trailers is that many of the differences
in tractor design are canceled-out,
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which allows a variety of standard
tractors to be used in testing without
compromising the evaluation of the
trailer aerodynamic technology. Thus,
the relative approach does not require
the agencies to precisely specify a
standard tractor, nor does it require
trailer manufacturers to purchase,
modify or retain a specific tractor model
in order to evaluate their trailers.
In essence, an A to B test is a set of
tests: one test of a baseline tractor-trailer
with zero trailer aerodynamic
technologies (A), and one test that
includes the aerodynamic devices to be
tested (B). However, because an A test
would relate to a B test only with
respect to the test method and the test
trailer length, one A test could be used
for many different B tests. This type of
testing would result in a delta CDA
value instead of an absolute CDA value.
For the trailer program, the vehicle
configuration in the A test would
include a standard tractor that meets
specified characteristics,247 and a
manufacturer’s baseline trailer with no
aerodynamic improvements. The entity
conducting the testing (e.g., the trailer
manufacturer or the trailer aerodynamic
device manufacturer, as discussed
below) would perform the test for this
configuration according to the
procedures in 40 CFR 1037.525 and
repeat the test for the B configuration,
which includes the trailer aerodynamic
package/device(s) being tested. The
delta CDA value for that trailer with that
device would be the difference between
the CDA values obtained in the A and
B tests.
In the event that a trailer
manufacturer makes major changes to
the aerodynamic design of its trailer in
lieu of installing add-on devices, trailer
manufacturers would use the same
baseline trailer for the A configuration
as would be used for bolt-on features. In
both cases, the baseline trailer would be
a manufacturer’s standard box trailer.
Thus, the manufacturer of a redesigned
trailer would get full credit for any
aerodynamic improvements it made. We
request comment on this issue. In
addition, we request comment on how
the program could handle a situation in
which a manufacturer made
aerodynamic design changes to a trailer
between 28 and 50 feet, which as
proposed could only be compared to a
28-foot standard trailer.
The agencies are proposing to
determine the delta CDA for trailer
aerodynamics using the zero-yaw (or
247 As explained in Section IV. F. (3) (b)(ii), the
standard tractor in GEM consists of a high roof
sleeper cab for box trailers longer than 50 feet and
a high roof day cab for box trailers 50 feet and
shorter.
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head-on wind) values. The agencies are
not proposing a reference method (i.e.,
the coastdown procedure in the tractor
program). Instead, we are proposing to
allow manufacturers to perform any of
the proposed test procedures to
establish a delta CDA. Since the
proposed coastdown and constant speed
procedures include wind restrictions,
we are proposing to only accept the
zero-yaw values from aerodynamic
evaluation techniques that are capable
of measuring drag at multiple yaw
angles (e.g., wind tunnels and CFD) to
allow cross-method comparison and
certification. The agencies welcome
comment on the pros and cons of
exclusive use of zero-yaw data from
trailer aerodynamic compliance testing.
We recognize that the benefits of
aerodynamic devices can be higher
when measured considering wind from
other yaw angles. We request comment
on the possibility of allowing
manufacturers to use wind-averaged
results for compliance if they choose to
test using procedures that provide windaveraged values. Chapter 2.10 of the
draft RIA compares zero-yaw and windaveraged results from EPA’s wind
tunnel testing. We request that
commenters provide test data to support
any preference for compliance test
results. We also request comments on
strategies that could be used to maintain
consistency with other methods that
cannot provide wind-averaged results.
(ii) Standard Tractor for Aerodynamic
Testing in the Proposed Trailer Program
We propose that the proposed
compliance equation, based on GEM, be
used to determine compliance with the
trailer standards. Our discussion of the
feasibility of our proposed standards
(Section IV. D. (3) (a)) includes a
description of the tractor-trailer vehicle
used in GEM. We recognize the impact
of the tractor and want to maintain
consistency with GEM, but for the
trailer program it is not necessary to
address all aspects (e.g., the engine) of
the tractor, because, as explained above,
the impact of many of its features will
be canceled-out with the use of an A to
B test strategy. However, some
aerodynamic design features of the
tractor can influence the performance of
trailer aerodynamic technologies and we
want to ensure a level of consistency
between tests of different trailer
manufacturers.
The agencies believe the A to B test
strategy would reduce the degree of
precision with which the standard
tractor needs to be specified. Instead of
identifying a specific make and model
of a tractor to be used over the entire
duration of the program, the agencies
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would instead identify key
characteristics of a standard tractor.
EPA’s trailer testing program
investigated the impact of tractor
aerodynamics on the performance of
trailer aerodynamic technologies, as
mentioned in Chapter 2.10 of the draft
RIA. In order to maintain a minimal
level of performance, we are proposing
that tractors used in trailer aerodynamic
tests meet Phase 2 Bin III or better
tractor requirements (see Section III.D.).
We believe the majority of tractors in
the U.S. trucking fleet will be Bin III or
better in the timeframe of this
rulemaking, and trailer manufacturers
have the option to choose higherperforming tractors in later years as
tractor technology improves. The
standard tractor for long-box trailers is
a Class 8 high-roof sleeper cab. The
standard tractor for short box trailers is
a Class 8 high roof day cab. Trailer
manufacturers are free to choose any
standard tractor that meets these criteria
in their aerodynamic performance
testing. See 40 CFR 1037.501.
(iii) Bins for Aerodynamic Performance
As mentioned in Section IV. D. (1) (a),
the agencies are proposing aerodynamic
bins to account for testing variability
and to provide consistency in the
performance values used for
compliance. These bins were developed
in terms of delta CDA ranges, and
designed to be broad enough to cover
the range of uncertainty seen in our
aerodynamic testing program in terms of
test-to-test variability as well as
variability due to differences in test
method, tractor models, trailer models
and device models.
As discussed in Chapter 2.10 of the
draft RIA, measured drag coefficients
and drag areas vary depending on the
test method used. In general, values
measured using wind tunnels and CFD
tend to be lower than values measured
using the coastdown method. The Phase
1 and proposed Phase 2 tractor program
use coastdown testing as the reference
test method, and the agencies require
tractor manufacturers to perform at least
one test using that method to establish
a correction factor (called ‘‘Falt,aero’’) to
apply to any of the alternative test
methods. For simplicity, the agencies
are not proposing a similar approach for
trailers. We believe that the size of the
bins and the use of change in CDA (as
opposed to absolute values) would
minimize the significance of this
variability. However, we recognize that
this could be a problem in instances
where a manufacturer using a method
other than coastdown produces a trailer
with performance near the upper end of
a bin. In such cases, it is possible that
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adjusting for methodological differences
using a Falt,aero would allow the
manufacturer to achieve a more
stringent bin.
We request comment on the proposed
approach for evaluating performance of
trailers and establishing bins for trailer
compliance. We specifically request that
commenters address the need for an
aerodynamic reference test for trailer
performance or additional strategies for
normalizing test methods. For example,
would it be appropriate to allow all
manufacturers using wind tunnel or
CFD methods to apply an assigned
Falt,aero of 1.10, or another value, to their
results?
TABLE IV–29—AERODYNAMIC BINS
USED TO DETERMINE INPUTS FOR
TRAILER CERTIFICATION
Delta CDA measured
in testing
0.09 .........................
0.10–0.19 ................
0.20–0.39 ................
0.40–0.59 ................
0.60–0.79 ................
0.80–1.19 ................
1.20–1.59 ................
≥ 1.6 ........................
Bin
Bin
Bin
Bin
Bin
Bin
Bin
Bin
Bin
I .....
II ....
III ...
IV ..
V ...
VI ..
VII
VIII
Average
delta CDA
input for
gem
0.0
0.1
0.3
0.5
0.7
1.0
1.4
1.8
A manufacturer that wished to
perform testing would first identify a
standard tractor (according to 40 CFR
1037.525) and a representative baseline
trailer with no aerodynamic features,
then perform the A to B tests with and
without aerodynamic devices and
obtain a delta CDA value. The
manufacturer would use Table IV–29 to
determine the appropriate bin based on
their delta CDA. Each bin has a
corresponding average delta CDA value
which is the value manufacturers insert
into the compliance equation.
(iv) Aerodynamic Device Testing
Alternative
The agencies recognize that much of
the trailer manufacturing industry may
have little experience with aerodynamic
performance testing. As such, we are
proposing an alternative compliance
option that we believe will minimize
the testing burden for trailer
manufacturers, meet the requirements of
the Clean Air Act and of EISA, and
provide reasonable assurance that the
anticipated CO2 and fuel consumption
benefits of the program will be realized
in real-world operation.
The agencies are proposing to allow
trailer aerodynamic device
manufacturers to seek preliminary
approval of the performance of their
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devices (or combinations of devices)
based on the same performance tests
described previously in Section IV. F.
(3) (b)(i). Device manufacturers would
perform the required A to B testing of
their device(s) on a trailer that meets the
requirements specified in 40 CFR
1037.211 and 1037.525 and submit the
performance results, in terms of delta
CDA, directly to EPA.248 Trailer
manufacturers could then choose to use
these devices and apply their
performance levels in the certification
application for their trailer families.
This approach would provide an
opportunity for trailer manufacturers to
choose technologies with pre-approved
test data for installation on their new
trailers without performing their own
aerodynamic testing. We note that this
proposed testing alternative is
consistent with recommendations of the
SBAR Panel. The Panel Report is
summarized below in Section XV.D.
If trailer manufacturers wish to use
multiple devices with pre-approved test
data, the proposed program provides a
process for combining the effects of
multiple devices to determine an
appropriate delta CDA value for
compliance. More specifically, such
manufacturers would fully count the
technology with largest delta CDA value,
discount the second by 10 percent, and
discount each of the remaining
additional technologies by 20
percent.249 This discounting would
acknowledge the complex interactions
among individual aerodynamic devices
and would provide a conservative value
for the impact of the combined devices.
For example, a manufacturer applying
three separately tested devices with
delta CDA values of 0.40, 0.30, and 0.10
would calculate the combined delta
CDA as:
Delta CDA = 0.40 + 0.90*0.30 +
0.80*0.10 = 0.75 m2
In addition, the agencies believe that
discounting the delta CDA values of
individually-tested devices used as a
combination would provide a modest
incentive for trailer or device
manufacturers to test and get EPA preapproval of the combination as an
aerodynamic system for compliance. We
propose that device manufacturers be
248 Note that in the event a device manufacturer
chooses to submit such data to EPA, it could incur
liability for causing a regulated entity to commit a
prohibited act. See 40 CFR 1068.101(c). This same
potential liability exists with respect to information
provided by a device manufacturer directly to a
trailer manufacturer.
249 A trailer manufacturer would need to use good
engineering judgement in combining devices for
compliance in order to avoid combinations that are
not intended to work together (e.g., both a side skirt
and an under-body device).
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allowed to test and receive EPA preapproval for combinations of devices,
and that trailer manufacturers that wish
to use those specific combinations be
allowed to use the results from the tests
of the combined devices.
The agencies note that many of the
largest box trailer manufacturers are
already performing aerodynamic test
procedures to some extent, and the
agencies expect other box trailer
manufacturers will increasingly be
capable of performing these tests as the
program progresses.
The proposed alternative testing
approach is intended to allow trailer
manufacturers to focus on and become
familiar with the certification process in
the early years of the program and, if
they wish, begin to perform testing in
the later years, when it may be more
appropriate for their individual
companies. This approach would not
preclude trailer manufacturers from
performing their own testing at any
time, even if the technologies they wish
to install are already pre-approved. For
example, a manufacturer that believed a
specific trailer actually performed in a
more synergistic manner with a given
device than the device’s pre-approved
delta CDA value suggested could
perform its own testing and submit the
results to EPA for certification. The
process to obtain approval is outlined in
the proposed 40 CFR 1037.211.
(4) Use of the Compliance Equation for
Trailer Compliance
The agencies are proposing standards
for non-box and non-aero box trailers
requiring the use of tires with rolling
resistance levels at or below a threshold,
and on ATI systems. As part of their
certification application, manufacturers
of these trailers would submit their tire
rolling resistance levels and a
description of their ATI system(s) to
EPA. As long as the trailer manufacturer
certifies that they will install the
appropriate tires and ATI systems on all
of their trailers, the agencies do not
believe it is necessary to require these
trailer manufacturers to use the equation
and report the results of the model to
the agencies to demonstrate compliance.
Box trailer manufacturers who apply
more than tire technologies to meet the
standards would use the compliance
equation to combine the effects of these
technologies and quantify the overall
performance of the vehicle to
demonstrate compliance. Trailer
manufacturers would obtain delta CDA
and tire rolling resistance values from
testing (either from their own testing or
testing performed by another entity as
described previously) and note if they
installed a qualifying automatic tire
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inflation system or made a component
substitution that qualifies for weight
reduction. Manufacturers would
directly apply the delta CDA and TRRL
values into the equation, which would
also recognize the use of an ATI system,
applying a 1.5 percent reduction in CO2
and fuel consumption. Qualifying
components for weight reduction can be
found in 40 CFR 1037.515(d).
Manufacturers that substitute one or
more of these components on their box
trailers would sum the weight
reductions assigned to each component
and enter that total into the equation.
The equation would also account for the
use of weight-reducing components,
assigning one-third of that reduced
weight to increase the payload and the
remaining weight reduction to reduce
the overall weight of the assumed
vehicle.
For this proposal, we are requiring
that the equation be used if the
manufacturer is to take advantage of the
agencies’ proposed averaging
provisions. Prior to submitting a
certificate application, manufacturers
would decide which technologies to
make available for their customers and
use the equation to determine the range
performance of the packages they will
offer. Manufacturers would supply these
results from the equation in their
certificate application and those
manufacturers that wish to perform
averaging would continue to calculate
emissions (and fuel consumption) with
the equation throughout the model year
and keep records of the results for each
trailer package sold. As described in
Section IV.F.2.c above, at the end of the
year, manufacturers would submit two
reports. One report would include their
production volumes for each
configuration. The second report,
required for manufacturers using
averaging, would summarize the
families and subfamilies, and CO2
emissions and fuel consumption results
from the equation for all of the trailer
configurations they build.250
Box trailer manufacturers that do not
participate in averaging would also use
the compliance equation to ensure that
all of the trailer configurations they offer
would meet the standard for the given
model year. These calculations using
the equation could be performed by the
manufacturer prior to submitting a
250 We are not proposing to allow manufacturers
to ‘‘bank’’ credits to the following year if a
manufacturer over-complies on average for a given
model year. We are proposing to allow
manufacturers to generate temporary deficits if they
under-comply on average. These deficits would
need to be resolved within three model years. See
Section IV.F.7.a below and 40 CFR 1037.250, 40
CFR 1037.730, and 49 CFR 535.7.
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certificate application, but it is not
necessary for the manufacturer to
continue to calculate emissions and fuel
consumption throughout the model year
unless a new technology package is
offered. These manufacturers would
submit a single end-of-year report that
would include their production
volumes and confirmation that all of
their trailers applied the technology
packages outlined in their application.
(5) Additional Certification and
Compliance Provisions
(a) Trailer Useful Life
Section 202(a)(1) of the CAA specifies
that EPA is to propose emission
standards that are applicable for the
‘‘useful life’’ of the vehicle. NHTSA also
proposes to adopt EPA’s useful life
requirements for trailers to ensure
manufacturers consider in the design
process the need for fuel efficiency
standards to apply for the same duration
and mileage as EPA standards. Based on
our own research and discussions with
trailer manufacturers, EPA and NHTSA
are proposing a regulatory useful life
value for trailers of 10 years. This useful
life represents the average duration of
the initial use of trailers, before they are
moved into less rigorous (e.g., limited
use or storage) duty. We note that the
useful life value is 10 years for other
heavy-duty vehicles. However, unlike
the other vehicles, we are not proposing
to set a mile value for trailers because
we do not require odometers for trailers.
Thus, we propose that trailer
manufacturers be responsible for
meeting the CO2 emissions and fuel
consumption standards for 10 years
after the trailer is produced. We believe
that manufacturers would be able to
demonstrate at certification that their
trailers will comply for the useful life of
the trailers without durability testing.
The aerodynamic technologies that we
expect manufacturers to use to comply
with the proposed standards, including
side skirts and boat tails, are designed
to continue to provide their full
potential benefit indefinitely as long as
no serious damage occurs. See also
Section IV.C.6 above describing why we
are not proposing separate in-use
standards.
Regarding trailer tires, we recognize
that the original lower rolling resistance
tires will wear over time and will be
replaced several times during the useful
life of a trailer, either with new or
retreaded tires. As with the Phase 1
tractor program, to help ensure that
trailer owners have sufficient
knowledge of which replacement tires
to purchase in order to retain the ascertified emission and fuel consumption
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performance of their trailer for its useful
life, we are proposing to require that
trailer manufacturers supply adequate
information in the owner’s manual to
allow the trailer owner to purchase
replacement tires meeting or exceeding
the rolling resistance performance of the
original equipment tires. We believe
that the favorable fuel consumption
benefit of continued use of LRR tires
would generally result in proper
replacements throughout the 10-year
useful life. Finally, we are requiring that
ATI systems remain effective for at least
the 10 year useful life, although some
servicing may be necessary. See the
maintenance discussion in Section
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(b) Emission Control Labels
Historically, EPA-certified vehicles
are required to have a permanent
emission control label affixed to the
vehicle. The label facilitates the
identification of the vehicle as a
certified vehicle. For the trailer
program, EPA proposes that the labels
include the same basic information as
we are proposing to require for tractor
labels. For trailers, this information
would include the manufacturer, a
trailer identifier such as the Vehicle
Identification Number, the trailer family
and regulatory subcategory, the date of
manufacture, and compliance
statements. Although the proposed
Phase 2 label for tractors would not
include emission control system
identifiers (as previously required for
tractors in the Phase 1 program in 40
CFR 1037.135(c)(6)), we are proposing
that these identifiers be included in the
trailer labels. As for tractors, we would
require manufacturers to maintain
records that would allow us to verify
that an individual trailer was in its
certified configuration.
(c) Warranty
Section 207 of the CAA requires
manufacturers to warrant their products
to be free from defects that would
otherwise cause non-compliance with
emission standards. For purposes of the
proposed trailer program, EPA would
require trailer manufacturers to warrant
all components that form the basis of
the certification to the CO2 emission
standards. The emission-related
warranty would cover all aerodynamic
devices, lower rolling resistance tires,
automatic tire inflation systems, and
other components that may be included
in the certification application.
The trailer manufacturer would need
to warrant that these components and
systems are designed to remain
functional for the warranty period.
Based on the historical practice of
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requiring emissions warranties to apply
for half of the useful life, we propose
that the warranty period for trailers be
5 years for everything except tires. For
trailer tires, we propose to apply a
warranty period of 1 year.
Manufacturers could offer a more
generous warranty if they chose;
however the emissions related warranty
may not be shorter than any other
warranty offered without charge for the
vehicle. If aftermarket components were
installed (unrelated to emissions
performance) that offer a longer
warranty, this would not impact
emission related warranty obligations of
the vehicle manufacturer. NHTSA is not
proposing any warranty requirements
relating to its trailer fuel consumption
program.
At the time of certification,
manufacturers would need to supply a
copy of the warranty statement that they
would supply to the end customer. This
document would outline what is
covered under the GHG emissions
related warranty as well as the duration
of coverage. Customers would also have
clear access to the terms of the warranty,
the repair network, and the process for
obtaining warranty service.
(d) Maintenance
In general, EPA requires that vehicle
manufacturers specify maintenance
schedules to keep their product in
compliance with emission standards
throughout the useful life of the vehicle
(CAA section 207). For trailers, such
maintenance could include fairing
adjustments or service to ATI systems.
However, EPA believes that any such
maintenance is likely to be performed
by operators to maintain the fuel savings
of the components, and we are not
proposing that trailer manufacturers be
required submit a maintenance schedule
for these components as part of its
application for certification.
Since low rolling resistance tires are
key emission control components under
this program, and will likely require
replacement at multiple points within
the life of a vehicle, it is important to
clarify how tires would fit into the
emission-related maintenance
requirements. Although the agencies
encourage the exclusive use of LRR tires
throughout the life of trailers vehicles,
we do not propose to hold trailer
manufacturers responsible for the
actions of operators. We do not see this
as problematic because we believe that
trailer operators have a genuine
financial motivation for ensuring their
vehicles are as fuel efficient as possible,
which includes purchasing LRR
replacement tires. Therefore, as
mentioned in Section IV.F.5.a above, to
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help ensure that trailer owners have
sufficient knowledge of which
replacement tires to purchase in order to
retain the as-certified emission and fuel
consumption performance of their
trailer, we are proposing to require that
trailer manufacturers supply adequate
information in the owner’s manual to
allow the trailer owner to purchase tires
meeting or exceeding the rolling
resistance performance of the original
equipment tires. We would require that
these instructions be submitted to EPA
as part of the application for
certification.
(e) Post-Useful Life Modifications
Under 40 CFR part 1037, EPA
generally prohibits for any person from
removing or rendering inoperative any
emission control device installed to
comply with the requirements of 40 CFR
part 1037. However, in 40 CFR 1037.655
EPA clarifies that certain vehicle
modifications are allowed after a vehicle
reaches the end of its regulatory useful
life. EPA is proposing for this section to
apply trailers, since it applies to all
vehicles subject to 40 CFR part 1037,
and requests comment on it.
Generally, this section clarifies that
owners may modify a vehicle for the
purpose of reducing emissions,
provided they have a reasonable
technical basis for knowing that such
modification will not increase emissions
of any other pollutant. In the case of
trailers, this essentially requires a trailer
owner to have information that would
lead an engineer or other person
familiar with trailer design and function
to reasonably believe that the
modifications will not increase
emissions of any regulated pollutant.
Thus, this provision does not provide a
blanket allowance for modifications
after the useful life.
This section does not apply with
respect to modifications that occur
within the useful life period, other than
to note that many such modifications to
the vehicle during the useful life are
presumed to violate 42 U.S.C.
7522(a)(3)(A). EPA notes, however, that
this is merely a presumption, and would
not prohibit modifications during the
useful life where the owner clearly has
a reasonable technical basis for knowing
the modifications would not cause the
vehicle to exceed any applicable
standard.
(6) Flexibilities
The trailer program that the agencies
are proposing incorporates a number of
provisions that would have the effect of
providing flexibility and easing the
compliance burden on trailer
manufacturers while maintaining the
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expected CO2 and fuel consumption
benefits of the program. Among these is
the basic approach we used in setting
the proposed standards, including the
staged phase-in of the standards, which
would gradually increase the CO2 and
fuel consumption reductions that
manufacturers would need to achieve
over time as they also increase their
experience with the program. As
described in the general certification
discussion above (Section IV.F.2),
another proposed provision would
allow trailer manufacturers to designate
broad trailer families that would
aggregate several models with similar
technologies or performance, thus
potentially limiting the number of
families and the associated family-level
compliance requirements.
In addition to these provisions
inherent to the proposed trailer
program, the agencies are proposing
additional options for certification that
we believe would be very valuable to
many trailer manufacturers. One of
these is the proposed process for
component manufacturers to submit test
data directly to EPA for review by the
agencies in advance of formal
certification, allowing a trailer
manufacturer to reduce the amount of
testing needed to demonstrate
compliance or avoid it altogether. See
Section IV.F.4 above.
(a) Proposed Averaging Provisions
The agencies are also proposing a
limited averaging program as a part of
the trailer compliance process for box
trailers. This program would be similar
to the Phase 1 averaging program for
other sectors, but would be narrower in
scope to reflect the unique competitive
aspects of the trailer market. The trailer
manufacturing industry is very
competitive, and manufacturers must be
highly responsive to their customers’
diverse demands. Compared to other
industry sectors, this reality can limit
the value of the flexibility that averaging
could provide to trailer manufacturers,
since they can have little control over
what kinds of trailer models their
customers demand and thus limited
ability to manage the mix and volume
of different products. In addition, the
majority of trailer manufacturers have
very few basic trailer models to offer,
potentially putting them at a
competitive disadvantage to the small
number of larger companies that would
be in a position to meet market demands
that the smaller companies could not.
For example, one of the larger, more
diverse manufacturers could potentially
supply a customer with trailers that had
few if any aerodynamic features, while
offsetting this part of their business with
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over-complying trailers that they were
able to sell to another customer; many
smaller companies with limited product
offerings might not be able to compete
for those customers.
Although we recognize that there
might be potential negative impacts on
at least some trailer manufacturers of an
averaging program, we believe that there
may be overall value to such a program.
We propose that full-aero box trailer
manufacturers may optionally comply
with their standards on average for a
trailer family in any given model year.
We are not proposing to allow partialaero box trailers to average. Instead, all
trailers in partial-aero families would
need to meet the standard for that
subcategory. We are proposing to allow
a trailer manufacturer to combine
partial-aero box trailers with the
corresponding full-aero trailer family
and reduce the number of certification
applications required. We expect this to
be particularly beneficial to
manufacturers in the early years of the
program, when these two trailer
categories have identical standards.
Although this option should reduce the
compliance paperwork, the partial-aero
trailers would not be able to adopt
enough technologies to meet the fullaero standards in the later years, and
manufacturers would have the option of
creating a separate family for these
trailers. Additionally, we are proposing
to allow refrigerated trailers to combine
with the dry vans of the same length
and meet the dry van standards and to
allow short box vans to combine with
their long box counterparts to meet the
long box standards.
Unlike averaging programs in other
sectors, including those in this Phase 2
program, we propose that averaging be
limited to a single model year, and
manufacturer not be allowed to ‘‘bank’’
credits generated from over-compliance
in one year for use in a future year. In
other words, a manufacturer that
produces some trailers in a family that
perform better than required by the
applicable standard would be allowed
to produce a number of trailers that do
not meet the standards, provided the
average of the trailers it produces in any
given model year is at or below the
standards. A trailer family performing
better than the standard would not be
allowed to bank credits for a future
model year.251 However, as a temporary
recourse for unexpected challenges in a
251 Section IV.F.2 describes the process of
identifying trailer families and sub-families based
on basic trailer characteristics. Section 1037.710 of
the proposed regulations describes the provisions
for establishing subfamilies within a trailer family
and the Family Emission Limits that would be
averaged among the subfamilies.
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given model year, we propose that
manufacturers be allowed to generate a
deficit that would be resolved within
the next three model years, and to allow
the manufacturer to use credits they
generate from over-compliance in
subsequent years to address deficits
from prior model years. As discussed
below, we are not proposing this
allowance for non-box trailers or nonaero trailers.
We recognize that at each stage of the
program, there may be a small fraction
of trailer applications for which the
trailer manufacturers cannot easily
apply all of the aerodynamic and tire
technologies. Thus the proposed dry
and refrigerated van standards are
designed in the form of family average
performance, meaning that each trailer
manufacturer would comply on average
across the trailer families it produces
within each subcategory category (or
family). The proposed program would
allow a manufacturer, for example, to
comply without full adoption of
aerodynamic devices across 100 percent
of its box trailer production in a trailer
family, as long as it also produced a
sufficient number of trailers within that
family that performed better than the
standard, such that the overall
production-weighted CO2 and fuel
consumption results of the trailer
models in that family complied with the
appropriate standard.
In addition to the flexibility created
by averaging, the proposed box trailer
standards themselves are not predicated
on a set adoption rate of any one
technology. Manufacturers would be
free under the proposed averaging
program to choose to apply the
appropriate number and type of
technologies that met their customers’
needs and the level of performance
required within a particular trailer
family. The proposed rules in general do
not mandate inclusion of any particular
technology or other means of emission
control. The agencies believe that,
ordinarily, averaging would create an
incentive for manufacturers to promote
high-performing technologies for some
customers, beyond the requirements for
that given year, in order to provide other
customers with trailers with fewer
aerodynamic technologies.
The agencies also recognize, however,
that an averaging program would
inherently require a higher degree of
data management, record keeping, and
reporting than one without averaging.
Recognizing that this could impose
burdens, especially on small business
manufacturers, the agencies are
proposing that the averaging provisions
be optional; a box trailer manufacturer
could choose whether to use averaging
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for any or all of its standard box trailer
subcategories (families), or to forego
averaging and simply meet the
standards with 100 percent of the
production within each family. Also,
unlike some other regulated motor
vehicle sectors, we are not proposing
that credits from over-compliance be
able to be ‘‘banked’’ for use in a later
model year, or to be ‘‘traded’’ among
trailer manufacturers, since they would
exacerbate the competitive issues,
especially for small manufacturers, as
discussed immediately below. However,
we are proposing to apply to trailers the
provisions of Phase 1 for tractors that
allow for the generation of a compliance
deficit that could be resolved over
several years. Thus, a manufacturer that
chose to use averaging, but by the end
of the production year found that a
trailer family’s CO2 and fuel
consumption values did not reach that
year’s standards, could carry a ‘‘deficit’’
that would need to be resolved by the
third year following.
The availability of averaging options
also has the potential to be a
disadvantage to some companies in a
competitive market that is highly
customer-driven. During the SBREFA
process, several manufacturers
expressed concern about their ability to
manage their credit balances in a highly
competitive market. Many believe that
they would have little ability to
essentially force their customers to
purchase the technology, especially if
other manufacturers that had credits
were able to sell trailers without the
technology. We see this as especially
problematic for non-box trailers, which
are much more likely to be produced by
small businesses, and for which
customers may have less interest in fuel
savings technologies since they are less
often used long-haul applications than
are box trailers. For these reasons, we
are proposing averaging only for dry and
refrigerated vans.
The agencies understand that
averaging is unfamiliar to many trailer
manufacturers and other stakeholders.
We have drafted a supplementary
document that includes example
scenarios to illustrate the concept of
averaging for a hypothetical box trailer
manufacturer.252 Example adoption
rates are provided for a standard
compliance strategy (no averaging) and
a strategy using the proposed averaging
provisions.
One value of averaging that the
agencies have historically cited in
252 Memorandum dated March 2015 on Example
Compliance Scenarios for the Proposed GHG Phase
2 Trailer Program. Docket EPA–HQ–OAR–2014–
0827.
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several other motor vehicle regulatory
programs is that the availability of
averaging provisions made it possible
for the agencies to propose and enact
more stringent standards than would
otherwise have been appropriate,
recognizing that the expected flexibility
of averaging provisions would ease the
path to compliance by the more
challenged members of the industry. In
the case of trailer manufacturers,
however, our decisions on the proposed
stringency of the standards is essentially
independent of the presence or absence
of averaging, since, as discussed above,
averaging provisions may have
relatively less value to manufacturers in
this customer-driven industry and we
did not speculate about much or how
little it might be used.
We also request comment on whether
the burden of managing an averaging
program could be more trouble than the
flexibility is worth. In the event that
averaging were not allowed, the
agencies would need to require that all
trailers meeting specified characteristics
meet a minimum stringency level
without averaging. If we were to finalize
such non-averaging standards,
manufacturers would still be allowed to
select the appropriate technology
package that best achieved their
emission performance level, but they
would not have the ability to
accommodate customers that may
request trailers that perform less well on
an individual trailer basis.
It is also worth noting that the
agencies are not proposing to allow any
generation of early credits before MY
2018. It is clear to us that small
businesses would be less prepared to
begin complying early than larger
businesses, and that allowing large
manufacturers to generate early credits
that could be used later could put small
businesses at a competitive
disadvantage. It does not appear to us
that there would be a sufficient broader
programmatic benefit from early credits
to justify such an adverse impact on
small businesses.
We request comment on this proposed
averaging option, including whether the
program should allow credit and deficit
banking and credit trading, as well as on
any other potential provisions that
could provide compliance flexibility for
trailer manufacturers while achieving
the goals of the overall program.
Comments supporting averaging,
banking, or trading should explain how
these provisions would be valuable for
trailer manufactures across the industry,
including how the provisions would
maintain a ‘‘level playing field.’’
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(b) Proposed SmartWay-Based
Certification
Since many manufacturers have some
experience with the SmartWay program,
the agencies are proposing a gradual
transition to the proposed approach that
recognizes the parallel SmartWay
Technology Program. The agencies
expect aerodynamic device
manufacturers to continue to submit test
data to SmartWay for verification.
Device manufacturers that also wish to
have their technology available for
trailer manufacturers to use in the Phase
2 program could, in parallel, submit
their test data to EPA for pre-approval
for Phase 2 (see Section IV.F.4). The
information obtained by EPA from the
device manufacturers would include the
technology name, a description of its
proper installation procedure, and its
corresponding delta CDA derived from
the approved test procedures. Any
manufacturers that attained SmartWay
verification prior to January 1, 2018
would be eligible to submit their
previous data to EPA’s Compliance
Division for pre-approval, provided
their test results come from SmartWay’s
2014 test protocols that measure a delta
CDA. The protocols for coastdown, wind
tunnel, and computational fluid
dynamics analyses result in a CDA
value. Note that SmartWay’s 2014
protocols allow SAE J1321 Type 2 track
testing, which generates fuel
consumption results, not CDA values.
The agencies request comment on
whether we should pre-approve devices
tested using SAE J1321 and also seek
comment on an appropriate means of
converting from the fuel consumption
results of that test to the delta CDA
values required for trailer compliance.
Beginning on January 1, 2018, EPA
would require that device
manufacturers that wish to seek
approval of new technologies for trailer
certification use one of the approved
test methods for Phase 2 (i.e.,
coastdown, constant speed, wind tunnel
or CFD) and the test procedures found
in 40 CFR 1037.525. Technologies that
were pre-approved using SmartWay’s
2014 Protocols would maintain their
approved status until CY 2021. After
January 1, 2021, we are proposing that
all pre-approved aerodynamic trailer
technologies be tested using the Phase 2
test procedures.
(c) Off-Cycle Technologies
The Phase 1 and proposed Phase 2
programs for tractors include provisions
for manufacturers to request the use of
off cycle technologies that are not
recognized in GEM or were not in
common use before MY 2010. In the
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case of trailers, the agencies are not
aware of any technologies that could
improve CO2 and fuel consumption
performance that would not be captured
in the test protocols as proposed. We are
therefore not proposing a process to
evaluate off-cycle trailer technologies.
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(d) Small Business Regulatory
Flexibility Provisions
As a part of our small business
obligations under the Regulatory
Flexibility Act, EPA and NHTSA have
considered additional flexibility
provisions aimed at this segment of the
trailer manufacturing industry. EPA
convened a Small Business Advocacy
Review (SBAR) Panel as required by the
Small Business Regulatory Enforcement
Fairness Act (SBREFA), and much of the
information gained and
recommendations provided by this
process form the basis of the flexibilities
proposed.253 As in previous
rulemakings, our justification for
including provisions specific to small
businesses is that these entities
generally have a greater degree of
difficulty in complying with the
standards compared to other entities.
Thus, as discussed below, we are
proposing several regulatory flexibility
provisions for small trailer
manufacturers that we believe would
reduce the burden on them while
achieving the goals of the program.
We believe that the small business
regulatory flexibilities discussed below
and in Section XV.C could provide
these entities with reduced compliance
requirements and/or additional time to
accumulate capital internally or to
secure capital financing from lenders,
and to acquire additional engineering
and testing resources.
The agencies designed many of the
proposed program elements and
flexibility provisions available to all
trailer manufacturers with the large
fraction of small business trailer
manufacturers in mind. We believe the
option to choose pre-approved
aerodynamic devices would
significantly reduce the compliance
burden and eliminate the requirement
for all manufacturers to perform testing.
As noted above, the small trailer
manufacturers raised concerns that their
businesses could be harmed by
provisions allowing averaging, banking,
253 Additional information regarding the findings
and recommendations of the Panel are available in
Section XIV, Chapter 11 of the draft RIA, and in the
Panel’s final report titled ‘‘Final Report of the Small
Business Advocacy Review Panel on EPA’s Planned
Proposed Rule Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Fuel
Efficiency Standards for Medium- and Heavy-Duty
Engines and Vehicles: Phase 2’’ (See Docket EPA–
HQ–OAR–2014–0827).
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and trading of emissions and fuel
consumption performance, since they
would not be able to generate the same
volume of credits as large
manufacturers. The agencies are
proposing not to include banking and
trading provisions in any part of the
program, and are limiting the option to
average to manufacturers of dry and
refrigerated box trailers. Since a
majority of non-box trailer
manufacturers are small businesses, we
believe a requirement of specific tire
technologies for all non-box trailers
would create the most uniformity in
requirements among manufacturers and
would reduce the compliance burden by
eliminating the use of the compliance
equation.
In addition to the provisions offered
to trailer manufacturers of all sizes, the
agencies are proposing or requesting
comment on several additional
provisions designed specifically to ease
compliance burdens on small trailer
manufacturers. For all small business
trailer manufacturers, the agencies
propose a one-year delay in the
beginning of implementation of the
program, until MY 2019. We believe
(subject to consideration of public
comment) that this would allow small
businesses additional needed lead-time
to make the proper staffing adjustments
and process changes, and possibly add
new infrastructure to meet the
requirements. We also request comment
about where there may be circumstances
in later stages of the program, when the
stringency of the standards increase in
MY 2021 and 2024, when a similar 1year delay in implementation could be
warranted for small trailer
manufacturers.
As mentioned previously, we are
proposing to offer averaging provisions
for manufacturers of dry and
refrigerated box trailers only. We
recognize that the small box trailer
manufacturers may not be able to fully
take advantage of averaging and may be
at a competitive disadvantage with
larger manufacturers with larger sales
volumes and more diverse product
lines. We request comment on
additional provisions that could ease
the potential harm to and/or incentivize
small business participation in an
averaging program.
The agencies also request comment on
provisions for small manufacturers that
might face a situation where the
technologies needed for compliance are
unavailable. This could be a particular
concern for small business non-box and
non-aero box trailers that require the use
of LRR tires and ATI systems. We
request that trailer manufacturers as
well as tire and aerodynamic technology
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manufacturers provide information
regarding the current projected
availability of the technologies that
trailer manufacturers can use to meet
our proposed standards.
V. Class 2b–8 Vocational Vehicles
A. Summary of Phase 1 Vocational
Vehicle Standards
Class 2b–8 vocational vehicles
include a wide variety of vehicle types,
and serve a wide range of functions.
Some examples include service for
urban delivery, refuse hauling, utility
service, dump, concrete mixing, transit
service, shuttle service, school bus,
emergency, motor homes, and tow
trucks. In the HD Phase 1 Program, the
agencies defined Class 2b-8 vocational
vehicles as all heavy-duty vehicles that
are not included in the Heavy-duty
Pickup Truck and Van or the Class 7
and 8 Tractor categories. In effect, the
rules classify heavy-duty vehicles that
are not a combination tractor or a
pickup truck or van as vocational
vehicles. Class 2b-8 vocational vehicles
and their engines emit approximately 20
percent of the GHG emissions and burn
approximately 21 percent of the fuel
consumed by today’s heavy-duty truck
sector.254
Most vocational vehicles are
produced in a two-stage build process,
though some are built from the ‘‘ground
up’’ by a single entity. In the two-stage
process, the first stage sometimes is
completed by a chassis manufacturer
that also builds its own proprietary
components such as engines or
transmissions. This is known as a
vertically integrated manufacturer. The
first stage can also be completed by a
chassis manufacturer who procures all
components, including the engine and
transmission, from separate suppliers.
The product completed at the first stage
is generally either a stripped chassis, a
cowled chassis, or a cab chassis. A
stripped chassis may include a steering
column, a cowled chassis may include
a hood and dashboard, and a cab chassis
may include an enclosed driver
compartment. Many of the same
companies that build Class 7 and 8
tractors also sell vocational chassis in
the medium heavy- and heavy heavyduty weight classes. Similarly, some of
the companies that build Class 2b and
3 pickups and vans also sell vocational
chassis in the light heavy-duty weight
classes.
254 See Memorandum to the Docket ‘‘Runspecs
and Model Inputs for MOVES for HD GHG Phase
2 Emissions Modeling’’ Docket Number EPA–HQ–
OAR–2014–0827. See also EPA’s MOVES Web page
at https://www.epa.gov/otaq/models/moves/
index.htm.
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The second stage is typically
completed by a final stage manufacturer
or body builder, which installs the
primary load carrying device or other
work-related equipment, such as a
dump bed, delivery box, or utility boom.
There are over 200 final stage
manufacturers in the U.S., most of
which are small businesses. Even the
large final stage manufacturers are
specialized, producing a narrow range
of vehicle body types. These businesses
also tend to be small volume producers.
In 2011, the top four producers of truck
bodies sold a total of 64,000 units,
which is about 31 percent of sales in
that year.255 In that same year, 74
percent of final stage manufacturers
produced less than 500 units.
The businesses that act both as the
chassis manufacturer and the final stage
manufacturer are those that build the
vehicles from the ‘‘ground up.’’ These
entities generally produce custom
products that are sold in lower volumes
than those produced in large
commercial processes. Examples of
vehicles produced with this build
process would include fire apparatus
and transit buses.
The diversity in the vocational
vehicle segment can be primarily
attributed to the variety of customer
needs for specialized vehicle bodies and
added equipment, rather than to the
chassis. For example, a body builder can
build either a Class 6 bucket truck or a
Class 6 delivery truck from the same
Class 6 chassis. The aerodynamic
difference between these two vehicles
due to their bodies would lead to
different in-use fuel consumption and
GHG emissions. However, the baseline
fuel consumption and emissions due to
the components included in the
common chassis (such as the engine,
drivetrain, frame, and tires) would be
the same between these two types of
vehicles.
Owners of vocational vehicles that are
upfitted with high-priced bodies that are
purpose-built for particular applications
tend to keep them longer, on average,
than owners of vehicles such as
pickups, vans, and tractors, which are
traded in broad markets that include
many potential secondary markets. The
fact that vocational vehicles also
generally accumulate far fewer annual
miles than tractors further contributes to
lengthy trade cycles among owners of
these vehicles. To the extent vocational
vehicle owners may be similar to
owners of tractors in terms of business
profiles, they would be more likely to
resemble private fleets or owner255 Specialty Transportation.net, 2012. Truck
Body Manufacturing in North America.
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operators than for-hire fleets. A 2013
survey conducted by NACFE found that
the trade cycle of private tractor fleets
ranged from seven to 12 years.256
The Phase 1 standards for this
vocational vehicle category generally
apply at the chassis manufacturer level.
For the same reasons given in Phase 1,
the agencies propose to apply the Phase
2 vocational vehicle standards at the
chassis manufacturer level.257
The Phase 1 regulations prohibit the
introduction into commerce of any
heavy-duty vehicle without a valid
certificate or exemption. 40 CFR
1037.620, redesignated as 40 CFR
1037.622 in the proposed rule, allows
for a temporary exemption for the
chassis manufacturer if it produces the
chassis for a secondary manufacturer
that holds a certificate. Further
discussion of temporary exemptions and
possible obligations of secondary
manufacturers can be found in Section
V. E.
In Phase 1, the agencies adopted two
equivalent sets of standards for Class 2b8 vocational vehicles. For vehicle-level
(chassis) emissions, EPA adopted CO2
standards expressed in grams per tonmile. For fuel efficiency, NHTSA
adopted fuel consumption standards
expressed in gallons per 1,000 tonmiles. The Phase 1 engine-based
standards vary based on the expected
weight class and usage of the vehicle
into which the engine will be installed.
We adopted Phase 1 vehicle-based
standards that vary according to one key
attribute, GVWR, based on the same
groupings of vehicle weight classes used
for the engine standards—light heavyduty (LHD, Class 2b–5), medium heavyduty (MHD, Class 6–7), and heavy
heavy-duty (HHD, Class 8).
In Phase 1, the agencies defined a
special regulatory category called
vocational tractor, which generally
operate more like vocational vehicles
than line haul tractors.258 As described
above in Section III.C.4, under the Phase
1 rules, a vocational tractor is certified
under standards for vocational vehicles,
not those for tractors. In Phase 2, the
agencies propose to retain the
vocational tractor definition, and to
allow vocational tractors to certify over
any of the proposed vocational vehicle
duty cycles, following the same
decision-tree as other vocational
chassis. Vocational tractors would
continue to satisfy the proposed engine
standard and vocational vehicle GEM256 See 2013 ICCT Barriers Report at Note 241,
above.
257 See 76 FR 57120.
258 See EPA’s regulation at 40 CFR 1037.630 and
NHTSA’s regulation at 49 CFR 523.2.
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based standard, rather than the
proposed tractor standard.
Manufacturers are required to use
GEM to determine compliance with the
Phase 1 vocational vehicle standards,
where the primary vocational vehicle
manufacturer-generated input is the
measure of tire rolling resistance. The
GEM assumes the use of a typical
representative, compliant engine in the
simulation, resulting in one overall
value for CO2 emissions and one for fuel
consumption. The manufacturers of
engines intended for use in vocational
vehicles are subject to separate Phase 1
engine-based standards. Manufacturers
also may demonstrate compliance with
the CO2 standards in whole or in part
using credits reflecting CO2 reductions
resulting from technologies not reflected
in the GEM testing regime. See 40 CFR
1037.610.
In Phase 1, EPA and NHTSA also
adopted provisions designed to give
manufacturers a degree of flexibility in
complying with the standards. Most
significantly, we adopted an ABT
program to allow manufacturers within
the same averaging set to comply on
average. See 40 CFR part 1037, subpart
H. These provisions enabled the
agencies to adopt overall standards that
are more stringent than we could have
considered with a less flexible
program.259
B. Proposed Phase 2 Standards for
Vocational Vehicles
The agencies have held dozens of
meetings with manufacturers, suppliers,
non-governmental organizations
(NGOs), and other stakeholders to
identify and understand the
opportunities and challenges involved
with regulating vocational vehicles.
These meetings have helped us to better
understand the performance demands of
the customers, the fuel-saving and GHG
reducing technologies that are being
investigated, as well as some challenges
that are being encountered. In addition,
we updated our industry
characterization to better understand the
vocational vehicle manufacturing
process, including the component
suppliers and body builders.260 We
believe these information exchanges
have enabled us to develop this
proposal with an appropriate balance of
259 As noted earlier, NHTSA notes that it has
greater flexibility in the HD program to include
consideration of credits and other flexibilities in
determining appropriate and feasible levels of
stringency than it does in the light-duty CAFE
program. Cf. 49 U.S.C. 32902(h), which applies to
light-duty CAFE but not to heavy-duty fuel
efficiency under 49 U.S.C. 32902(k).
260 September 2013, Heavy Duty Vocational
Vehicle Industry Characterization, EPA Contract
No. EP–C–12–011.
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(1) Proposed Subcategories and Test
Cycles
The proposed Phase 2 vocational
vehicle standards are based on the
performance of a wider array of control
technologies than the Phase 1 rules. In
particular, the agencies are proposing to
recognize detailed characteristics of
powertrains and drivelines in the
proposed Phase 2 vocational vehicle
standards. As described below,
driveline improvements present a
significant opportunity for reducing fuel
consumption and CO2 emissions from
vocational vehicles. However, there is
no single package of driveline
technologies that would be equally
suitable for the majority of vocational
vehicles, because there is an extremely
broad range of driveline configurations
available in the market. This is due in
part to the variety of build processes,
ranging from a purpose built custom
chassis to a commercial chassis that
may be intended as a multi-purpose
stock vehicle. Further, the wide range of
applications and driving patterns of
these vehicles leads manufacturers to
offer a variety of drivelines, as each
performs differently in use. For
example, depending on whether the
transmission has an overdrive gear,
drive axle ratios for Class 7 and 8
tractors can be found in the range of
2.5:1 to 4.1:1. By contrast, across all
types of vocational vehicles, drive axle
ratios can be as low as 3.1:1 (delivery
vehicle) and as high as 9.8:1 (transit
bus).261 Other components of the
driveline also have a broader range of
product in vocational vehicles than in
tractors, including transmission gears,
tire sizes, and engine speeds. Each of
these design features affects the GHG
emission rate and fuel consumption of
the vehicle. It therefore is reasonable to
define more than one baseline
configuration of vocational vehicle, to
encompass a range of drivelines and
recognize that the agencies cannot use a
one-size-fits-all approach. A detailed list
of the technologies the agencies project
could be adopted to meet the proposed
vocational vehicle standards is
described in Section V.C, and in the
draft RIA Chapter 2. The agencies have
determined that these technologies
perform differently depending on the
drivelines and driving patterns, further
supporting the need to subcategorize
this segment.
For these reasons, the agencies are
proposing to create additional
subcategories of vocational vehicles in
Phase 2. By creating additional
subcategories we would essentially be
setting separate baselines and separate
numerical performance standards for
different groups of vocational vehicle
chassis over different test cycles. This
would enable the technologies that
perform best at highway speeds and
those that perform best in urban driving
to each to be fully recognized over
appropriate test cycles, while avoiding
the unintended consequence of forcing
vocational vehicles that are designed to
serve in a wide variety of applications
to be measured against a single baseline.
The attributes we believe could define
these chassis groups are described
below.
The agencies are proposing to split
groups of chassis into subcategories
based generally on vehicle use patterns
in which the CO2 emissions and fuel
consumption standards vary as a
consequence. Compliance with these
standards would be demonstrated
through test cycles reflecting these use
patterns, to best assure that actual in-use
benefits occur. An ideal test cycle is one
in which the performance
improvements achieved by the adopted
technologies are recognized over the
cycle. As described in Section V.C and
in the draft RIA Chapter 2.9, the
agencies have found that most of the
technologies considered do perform
differently under different driving
conditions. For example, the
effectiveness of lower tire rolling
resistance is different depending on the
degree of highway or transient driving,
but the differences are very small
compared to the difference in
effectiveness for a hybrid drivetrain
under different driving conditions. The
agencies have found that the measurable
changes in performance of a majority of
the technologies are significant enough
to merit creation of different
subcategories with different test cycles.
Idle reduction technology is one type
of technology that is particularly dutycycle dependent. The composite test
cycle for vocational vehicles in Phase 1
includes a 42 percent weighting on the
ARB Transient test cycle, which
comprises nearly 17 percent of idle
time. However, no single idle event in
this test cycle is longer than 36 seconds,
which may not be enough time to
adequately recognize the benefits of
some idle reduction technologies.262 For
Phase 2, the agencies propose to
recognize this important fuel saving
technology by evaluating workday idle
reduction technologies through a new
idle-only cycle as described in the draft
RIA Chapter 3.
The agencies are proposing three
different composite test cycles for
vocational vehicles in Phase 2: Regional,
Multi-Purpose, and Urban. The agencies
believe these three cycles balance the
competing pressures to recognize the
varying performance of technologies,
serve the varying needs of customers,
and maintain reasonable regulatory
simplicity. Table V–1 below presents
the nine proposed subcategories of
vocational vehicles: Three weight class
groupings, each with three composite
duty cycles. Each of these proposed
composite duty cycles has a different
weighting of the new idle cycle, the
highway cruise cycles, and the ARB
Transient cycle, as shown in Table
V–2. The CALSTART HD Truck Fuel
Economy Task Group met in June 2013
to discuss vocational vehicle
segmentation, and suggested an
approach very similar to this. The task
group generally supported a limited
number of duty cycles that would be
sufficient to cover the basic applications
while allowing new technology to
demonstrate its worth. They recognized
that a few meaningful duty cycles could
‘‘bound’’ how vocational vehicles are
generally used, while recognizing that
this approach would not perfectly
match how every vocational vehicle is
actually used. Their recommendations
included three vocational vehicle dutycycle-based subcategories: Urban,
Regional, and Work Site. A detailed
discussion of the CALSTART
recommendations, as well as reasoning
why the agencies selected the proposed
composite cycle weightings can be
found in the draft RIA Chapter 2.
Continuing the averaging scheme from
Phase 1, each manufacturer would be
able to average within each vehicle
weight class.
261 See Dana Spicer Drive Axle Application
Guidelines, available at https://www.dana.com/wps/
wcm/connect/133007004bd8422b9ea8be
14e7b6dae0/DEXTdaag2012_0712_DriveAxlesAppGuide_LR.pdf?
MOD=AJPERES&CONVERT_TO=url&
CACHEID=133007004bd8422b9ea8be14e7b6dae0.
See also ZF Driveline and Chassis Technology
brochure, available at https://www.zf.com/media/
media/en/document/corporate_2/downloads_1/
flyer_and_brochures/bus_driveline_
technology_flyer/Busbroschuere_12_DE_final.pdf
262 However, as noted above, emission
improvements due to workday idle technology can
be recognized under Phase 1 as an innovative credit
under 40 CFR 1037.610 and 49 CFR 535.7.
reasonably achievable goals and a
reasonably small risk of unintended
consequences.
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TABLE V–1—PROPOSED REGULATORY SUBCATEGORIES FOR VOCATIONAL VEHICLES
Weight class
Light heavy-duty
class 2b–5
Medium heavy-duty
class 6–7
Duty Cycle ................................................................................................
Regional ....................
Multi-Purpose ............
Urban .........................
Regional ....................
Multi-Purpose ............
Urban .........................
Heavy heavy-duty
class 8
Regional.
Multi-Purpose.
Urban.
TABLE V–2—PROPOSED COMPOSITE TEST CYCLE WEIGHTINGS (IN PERCENT) FOR VOCATIONAL VEHICLES
ARB transient
55 mph cruise
with road
grade a
65 mph cruise
with road
grade a
50
82
94
28
15
6
22
3
0
Regional ...........................................................................................................
Multi-Purpose ...................................................................................................
Urban ...............................................................................................................
Idle
10
15
20
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Note:
a As described in Section III.E.2.b, the agencies are proposing to add road grade to the highway cruise test cycles.
The agencies are proposing criteria for
determining the applicability of these
subcategories. This is not as
straightforward an exercise as with
tractors, where attributes such as cab
type are obvious physical properties
that indicate reasonably well how a
vehicle is intended to be used. The
agencies have identified the final drive
ratio of a vocational vehicle as a
possible attribute that may indicate how
the vehicle is intended to be used. As
described in Section V.E.(1)(d), we
expect that most vocational chassis
could be assigned to a duty cycle by
estimating the percent of maximum
engine test speed that is achieved over
highway cruise cycles, by use of an
equation that relates engine speed to
vehicle speed. To simplify this
assignment process, the agencies
propose that a vocational chassis would
be presumed to certify using the MultiPurpose duty cycle unless some criteria
were met that indicated either the
Regional or Urban cycle would be more
appropriate. Those criteria could
include the objective calculation
described in Section V.E., or a mix of
physical attributes and knowledge of
intended use. The agencies are also
proposing that chassis manufacturers
would be able to request a different duty
cycle.
We understand that even within
certain vocational vehicle types, vehicle
use varies significantly. By employing
the agencies’ recommended assignment
process, it is our expectation that a
delivery truck and a dump truck could
both be certified over the same duty
cycle while still yielding accurate
technology effectiveness, if they had
similar chassis and driveline
characteristics. Further, while intended
service class may help a manufacturer
decide how to classify some vehicles,
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we do not believe that intended service
class would be a sufficient indicator by
itself. An example of this is the refuse
service class. A neighborhood collection
refuse truck would not need to be
assigned to the same subcategory as a
roll-off refuse straight/dump truck that
makes daily highway trips to a landfill.
The agencies request comment on the
method for assigning vocational chassis
to regulatory subcategories. We believe
the proposed approach is aligned with
the objective to allow manufacturers to
certify their chassis over appropriate
duty cycles, while maintaining the
ability of the market to offer a variety of
products to meet customer demand.
(2) Alternative Approach to
Subcategorization
The U.S. Department of Energy and
EPA are partnering to support a project
aimed at evaluating, refining and/or
developing duty cycles for tractors and
vocational vehicles to be used in the
certification of heavy-duty vehicles to
GHG emission standards. This project is
underway at the National Renewable
Energy Laboratory (NREL) and includes
a task to develop alternative
subcategorization options for vocational
vehicles, along with new drive cycles
and/or cycle composite weightings.
NREL is continuing to collate available
vehicle activity data and vehicle
characteristics, and the public is invited
to submit information to the docket in
support of this work to identify possible
alternative GEM test cycles and
segmentation options for vocational
vehicles. Preliminary work under this
project indicates that two or three test
cycles may adequately represent most
vocational vehicles. Depending on how
many distinct vehicle driving patterns
can be identified with correlation to
vehicle attributes, the agencies may
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finalize a vocational subcategorization
approach that includes as few as two or
as many as five composite GEM duty
cycles. It is also possible that some test
cycles may not apply to all
subcategories. It is further possible that
the approach to assignment of
vocational chassis to subcategories in
the final rules may be based on different
attributes than those proposed,
including different engine and driveline
characteristics and different indicators
of vehicle purpose. Preliminary work
from NREL indicates that in-use drive
cycles may include more idle operation
for all types of vocational vehicles than
is represented by the currently proposed
GEM test cycles. Depending on
comments and additional information
received during the comment period, it
may be within the agencies’ discretion
to adopt one or more alternative
vocational vehicle test cycles, or reweight the current test cycles, to better
represent real world driving and better
reflect performance of the technology
packages.
(3) Proposed GHG and Fuel
Consumption Standards for Vocational
Vehicles
EPA is proposing CO2 standards and
NHTSA is proposing fuel consumption
standards for manufacturers of chassis
for new vocational vehicles. As
described in Sections II.C.1 and II.D.1
above, the agencies are proposing test
procedures so that engine performance
would be evaluated within the GEM
simulation tool. These test procedures
include corrections for the test fuel,
enabling vocational vehicles to be
certified with many different types of CI
and SI engines. In addition, EPA is
proposing to establish HFC leakage
standards for air conditioning systems
in vocational vehicles, as described
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below and in the draft RIA Chapters 2
and 5.
This section describes the standards
and implementation dates that the
agencies are proposing for the nine
subcategories of vocational vehicles.
The agencies have performed a
technology analysis to determine the
level of standards that we believe would
be available at reasonable cost, and
would be cost-effective, technologically
feasible, and appropriate in the lead
time provided. More details of this
analysis are described in the draft RIA
Chapter 2. This analysis considered the
following for each of the proposed
regulatory subcategories:
• The level of technology that is
incorporated in current new vehicles,
• forecasts of manufacturers’ product
redesign schedules,
• the available data on CO2 emissions
and fuel consumption for these vehicles,
• technologies that would reduce CO2
emissions and fuel consumption and
that are judged to be feasible and
appropriate for these vehicles through
the 2027 model year,
• the effectiveness and cost of these
technologies,
• a projection of the technologically
feasible application rates of these
technologies, in this time frame, and
• projections of future U.S. sales for
different types of vehicles and engines.
The proposal described here and
throughout the rulemaking documents
is the preferred alternative, referred to
as Alternative 3 in Section X and the
draft RIA Chapter 11. However, the
agencies are seriously considering
another alternative for all segments,
including vocational vehicles, referred
to as Alternative 4. The agencies believe
that Alternative 4 has the potential to be
the maximum feasible and reasonable
alternative. However, based on the
evidence currently before the agencies,
EPA and NHTSA have outstanding
questions regarding relative risks and
benefits of Alternative 4 due to the time
frame envisioned by that alternative.
Alternative 4 is predicated on the same
general market adoption rates of the
same technologies as the proposal, but
would provide three years less lead time
than the proposal. Details of Alternative
4 are presented in Section V.D, Section
X, and in the draft RIA Chapter 11.
The agencies seek comment on the
feasibility of Alternative 4 for vocational
vehicles, including empirical data on its
appropriateness, cost-effectiveness, and
technological feasibility. It would be
helpful if comments addressed these
issues separately for each type of
technology.
Additional information and feedback
could further inform our assumptions
and, by extension, our analysis of
feasibility. The agencies believe it is
possible that it could be within the
agencies’ discretion to determine in the
final rules that Alternative 4 could be
maximum feasible and appropriate
under CAA section 202(a)(1) and (2). If
the agencies receive relevant
information supporting the feasibility of
Alternative 4, or regarding technology
pathways different than those in
Alternatives 3 and 4, the agencies may
consider establishing final fuel
consumption and GHG emission
standards at levels that provide more
overall reductions than what we are
proposing if we deem them to be
maximum feasible and reasonable for
NHTSA and EPA, respectively.
(a) Proposed Fuel Consumption and CO2
Standards
The agencies are proposing standards
that would phase in over a period of
seven years, beginning in the 2021
model year, consistent with the
requirement in EISA that NHTSA’s
standards provide four full model years
of regulatory lead time and three full
model years of regulatory stability, and
provide sufficient time ‘‘to permit the
development and application of the
requisite technology’’ for purposes of
CAA section 202(a)(2). The proposed
Phase 2 program would progress in
three-year stages with an intermediate
set of standards in MY 2024 and would
continue to reduce fuel consumption
and CO2 emissions well beyond the full
implementation year of MY 2027. The
agencies have identified a technology
path for each of these levels of
improvement, as described below.
Combining engine and vehicle
technologies, vocational vehicles
powered by CI engines would be
projected to achieve improvements of 16
percent in MY 2027 over the MY 2017
baseline, as described below and in the
draft RIA Chapter 2. The agencies
project up to 13 percent improvement in
fuel consumption and CO2 emissions in
MY 2027 from SI-powered vocational
vehicles, as shown in Table V–3. The
incremental Phase 2 vocational vehicle
standards would ensure steady progress
toward the MY 2027 standards, with
improvements in MY 2021 of up to
seven percent and improvements in MY
2024 of up to 11 percent over the MY
2017 baseline vehicles, as shown in
Table V–3.
The agencies’ analyses, as discussed
in this preamble and in the draft RIA
Chapter 2, show that the proposed
standards would be appropriate under
each agency’s respective statutory
authority.
TABLE V–3—PROJECTED VOCATIONAL VEHICLE CO2 AND FUEL USE REDUCTIONS (IN PERCENT) FROM 2017 BASELINE
Model year
2021 .......................................
2024 .......................................
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2027 .......................................
CI Engine
SI Engine
CI Engine
SI Engine
CI Engine
SI Engine
................................................................................
................................................................................
................................................................................
................................................................................
................................................................................
................................................................................
Based on our analysis and research,
the agencies believe that the
improvements in vocational vehicle fuel
consumption and CO2 emissions can be
achieved through deployment and
utilization of a greater set of
technologies than formed the
technology basis for the Phase 1
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Heavy heavyduty class 8
Engine type
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standards. In developing the proposed
standards, the agencies have evaluated
the current levels of fuel consumption
and emissions, the kinds of technologies
that could be utilized by manufacturers
to reduce fuel consumption and
emissions, the associated lead time, the
associated costs for the industry, fuel
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7
5
11
7
16
12
Medium
heavy-duty
class 6–7
7
5
11
7
16
13
Light heavyduty class
2b–5
6
4
10
7
16
12
savings for the owner/operator, and the
magnitude of the CO2 reductions and
fuel savings that may be achieved. After
examining the possibilities of vehicle
improvements, the agencies are basing
the proposed standards on the
performance of workday idle reduction
technologies, improved transmissions
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including hybrid powertrains, axle
technologies, weight reduction, and
further tire rolling resistance
improvements. The EPA-only air
conditioning standard is based on
leakage improvements.
The agencies’ evaluation indicates
that some of the above vehicle
technologies are commercially available
today, though often in limited volumes.
Other technologies would need
additional time for development. Those
that we believe are available today and
may be adopted to a limited extent in
some vehicles include improved tire
rolling resistance, weight reduction,
some types of conventional
transmission improvements, neutral
idle, and air conditioning leakage
improvements. However, EPA is not
proposing standards predicated on
performance of these technologies until
MY 2021.263 The agencies consider any
potential benefits that could be achieved
by implementing rules requiring some
technologies on vocational vehicles
earlier than MY 2021 to be outweighed
by several disadvantages. For one,
manufacturers would need lead time to
develop compliance tracking tools.
Also, if the Phase 2 vocational vehicle
standards began in a different year than
the tractor standards, this could create
unnecessary added complexity, and
could strongly detract from the fuel
savings and GHG emission reductions
that could otherwise be achieved.
Therefore we anticipate that the Phase
1 standards will continue to apply in
model years 2018 to 2020.
Vehicle technologies that we believe
will become available in the near term
include improved axle lubrication and
6x2 axles. Vehicle technologies that we
understand would benefit from even
more development time include stopstart idle reduction and hybrid
powertrains. The agencies have
analyzed the technological feasibility of
achieving the fuel consumption and CO2
standards, based on projections of what
actions manufacturers would be
expected to take to reduce fuel
consumption and emissions to achieve
the standards, and believe that the
standards would be technologically
feasible throughout the regulatory useful
life of the program. EPA and NHTSA
estimated vehicle package costs are
found in Section V.C.(2).
Table V–4 and Table V–5 present
EPA’s proposed CO2 standards and
NHTSA’s proposed fuel consumption
standards, respectively, for chassis
manufacturers of Class 2b through Class
8 vocational vehicles for the beginning
model year of the program, MY 2021. As
in Phase 1, the standards would be in
the form of the mass of emissions, or
gallons of fuel, associated with carrying
a ton of cargo over a fixed distance. The
EPA standards would be measured in
units of grams CO2 per ton-mile and the
NHTSA standards would be in gallons
of fuel per 1,000 ton-miles. With the
mass of freight in the denominator of
this term, the program is designed to
measure improved efficiency in terms of
freight efficiency. As in Phase 1, the
Phase 2 program would assign a fixed
default payload in GEM for each vehicle
weight class group (heavy heavy-duty,
medium heavy-duty, and light heavyduty). Even though this simplification
does not allow individual vehicle
freight efficiencies to be recognized, the
general capacity for larger vehicles to
carry more payload is represented in the
numerical values of the proposed
standards for each weight class group.
EPA’s proposed vocational vehicle
CO2 standards and NHTSA’s proposed
fuel consumption standards for the MY
2024 stage of the program are presented
in Table V–6 and Table V–7,
respectively. These reflect broader
adoption rates of vehicle technologies
already considered in the technology
basis for the MY 2021 standards. The
standards for vehicles powered by CI
engines also reflect that in MY 2024, the
separate engine standard would be more
stringent, so the vehicle standard keeps
pace with the engine standard.
EPA’s proposed vocational vehicle
CO2 standards and NHTSA’s proposed
fuel consumption standards for the full
implementation year of MY 2027 are
presented in Table V–8 and Table V–9,
respectively. These reflect even greater
adoption rates of the same vehicle
technologies considered in the basis for
the previous stages of the Phase 2
standards. The proposed MY 2027
standards for vocational vehicles
powered by CI engines reflect additional
engine technologies consistent with
those on which the separate proposed
MY 2027 CI engine standard is based.
The proposed MY 2027 standards for
vocational vehicles powered by SI
engines reflect improvements due to
additional engine friction reduction
technology, which is not among the
technologies on which the separate SI
engine standard is based.
The proposed standards are based on
highway cruise cycles that include road
grade, to better reflect real world driving
and to help recognize engine and
driveline technologies. See Section III.E.
The agencies have evaluated some
alternate road grade profiles, including
several recommended by NREL and two
developed independently by the
agencies, and have prepared possible
alternative vocational vehicle standards
based on these profiles. The agencies
request comment on this analysis,
which is available in a memorandum to
the docket.264
As described in Section I, the agencies
are proposing to continue the Phase 1
approach to averaging, banking and
trading (ABT), allowing ABT within
vehicle weight classes. For Phase 2,
continuing this approach means
allowing averaging between CI-powered
vehicles and SI-powered vehicles that
belong to the same weight class group
and have the same regulatory useful life.
TABLE V–4—PROPOSED EPA CO2 STANDARDS FOR MY 2021 CLASS 2b–8 VOCATIONAL VEHICLES
Light heavyduty class
2b–5
Duty cycle
Medium
heavy-duty
class 6–7
Heavy heavyduty class 8
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EPA Standard for Vehicle with CI Engine Effective MY 2021 (gram CO2/ton-mile)
Urban ...........................................................................................................................................
Multi-Purpose ...............................................................................................................................
Regional .......................................................................................................................................
296
305
318
188
190
186
198
200
189
203
214
EPA Standard for Vehicle with SI Engine Effective MY 2021 (gram CO2/ton-mile)
Urban ...........................................................................................................................................
263 NHTSA is unable to adopt mandatory
amended standards in those model years since there
would be less than the statutorily-prescribed
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amount of lead time available. 49 U.S.C.
32902(k)(3)(A).
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320
264 See Memorandum dated May 2015 on Possible
Tractor, Trailer, and Vocational Vehicle Standards
Derived from Alternative Road Grade Profiles.
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TABLE V–4—PROPOSED EPA CO2 STANDARDS FOR MY 2021 CLASS 2b–8 VOCATIONAL VEHICLES—Continued
Light heavyduty class
2b–5
Duty cycle
Multi-Purpose ...............................................................................................................................
Regional .......................................................................................................................................
Medium
heavy-duty
class 6–7
329
343
Heavy heavyduty class 8
205
201
216
204
TABLE V–5—PROPOSED NHTSA FUEL CONSUMPTION STANDARDS FOR MY 2021 CLASS 2b–8 VOCATIONAL VEHICLES
Light heavyduty class
2b–5
Duty cycle
Medium
heavy-duty
class 6–7
Heavy heavyduty class 8
NHTSA Standard for Vehicle with CI Engine Effective MY 2021 (Fuel Consumption gallon per 1,000 ton-mile)
Urban ...........................................................................................................................................
Multi-Purpose ...............................................................................................................................
Regional .......................................................................................................................................
29.0766
29.9607
31.2377
18.4676
18.6640
18.2711
19.4499
19.6464
18.5658
NHTSA Standard for Vehicle with SI Engine Effective MY 2021 (Fuel Consumption gallon per 1,000 ton-mile)
Urban ...........................................................................................................................................
Multi-Purpose ...............................................................................................................................
Regional .......................................................................................................................................
36.0077
37.0204
38.5957
22.8424
23.0674
22.6173
24.0801
24.3052
22.9549
TABLE V–6—PROPOSED EPA CO2 STANDARDS FOR MY 2024 CLASS 2b–8 VOCATIONAL VEHICLES
Light heavyduty class
2b–5
Duty cycle
Medium
heavy-duty
class 6–7
Heavy heavyduty class 8
EPA Standard for Vehicle with CI Engine Effective MY 2024 (gram CO2/ton-mile)
Urban ...........................................................................................................................................
Multi-Purpose ...............................................................................................................................
Regional .......................................................................................................................................
284
292
304
179
181
178
190
192
182
197
199
196
208
210
199
EPA Standard for Vehicle with SI Engine Effective MY 2024 (gram CO2/ton-mile)
Urban ...........................................................................................................................................
Multi-Purpose ...............................................................................................................................
Regional .......................................................................................................................................
312
321
334
TABLE V–7—PROPOSED NHTSA FUEL CONSUMPTION STANDARDS FOR MY 2024 CLASS 2b–8 VOCATIONAL VEHICLES
Light heavyduty class
2b–5
Duty cycle
Medium
heavy-duty
class 6–7
Heavy heavyduty class 8
NHTSA Standard for Vehicle with CI Engine Effective MY 2024 (Fuel Consumption gallon per 1,000 ton-mile)
Urban ...........................................................................................................................................
Multi-Purpose ...............................................................................................................................
Regional .......................................................................................................................................
27.8978
28.6837
29.8625
17.5835
17.7800
17.4853
18.6640
18.8605
17.8782
NHTSA Standard for Vehicle with SI Engine Effective MY 2024 (Fuel Consumption gallon per 1,000 ton-mile)
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Urban ...........................................................................................................................................
Multi-Purpose ...............................................................................................................................
Regional .......................................................................................................................................
35.1075
36.1202
37.5830
22.1672
22.3923
22.0547
23.4050
23.6300
22.3923
TABLE V–8—PROPOSED EPA CO2 STANDARDS FOR MY 2027 CLASS 2b–8 VOCATIONAL VEHICLES
Light heavyduty class
2b–5
Duty cycle
Medium
heavy-duty
class 6–7
Heavy heavyduty class 8
EPA Standard for Vehicle with CI Engine Effective MY 2027 (gram CO2/ton-mile)
Urban ...........................................................................................................................................
Multi-Purpose ...............................................................................................................................
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TABLE V–8—PROPOSED EPA CO2 STANDARDS FOR MY 2027 CLASS 2b–8 VOCATIONAL VEHICLES—Continued
Light heavyduty class
2b–5
Duty cycle
Regional .......................................................................................................................................
Medium
heavy-duty
class 6–7
292
Heavy heavyduty class 8
170
174
189
191
187
196
198
188
EPA Standard for Vehicle with SI Engine Effective MY 2027 (gram CO2/ton-mile)
Urban ...........................................................................................................................................
Multi-Purpose ...............................................................................................................................
Regional .......................................................................................................................................
299
308
321
TABLE V–9—PROPOSED NHTSA FUEL CONSUMPTION STANDARDS FOR MY 2027 CLASS 2b–8 VOCATIONAL VEHICLES
Light heavyduty class
2b–5
Duty cycle
Medium
heavy-duty
class 6–7
Heavy heavyduty class 8
NHTSA Standard for Vehicle with CI Engine Effective MY 2027 (Fuel Consumption gallon per 1,000 ton-mile)
Urban ...........................................................................................................................................
Multi-Purpose ...............................................................................................................................
Regional .......................................................................................................................................
26.7191
27.5049
28.6837
16.8959
17.0923
16.6994
17.8782
17.9764
17.0923
NHTSA Standard for Vehicle with SI Engine Effective MY 2027 (Fuel Consumption gallon per 1,000 ton-mile)
Urban ...........................................................................................................................................
Multi-Purpose ...............................................................................................................................
Regional .......................................................................................................................................
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As with the other regulatory
categories of heavy-duty vehicles,
NHTSA and EPA are are proposing
standards that apply to Class 2b–8
vocational vehicles at the time of
production, and EPA is proposing
standards for a specified period of time
in use (e.g., throughout the regulatory
useful life of the vehicle). The
derivation of the standards for these
vehicles, as well as details about the
proposed provisions for certification
and implementation of these standards,
are discussed in more detail later in this
notice and in the draft RIA.
(b) Proposed HFC Leakage Standards
The Phase 1 GHG standards do not
include standards to control direct HFC
emissions from air conditioning systems
on vocational vehicles. EPA deferred
such standards due to ‘‘the complexity
in the build process and the potential
for different entities besides the chassis
manufacturer to be involved in the air
conditioning system production and
installation’’. See 76 FR 57194. During
our stakeholder outreach conducted for
Phase 2, we learned that the majority of
vocational vehicles are sold as cabcompletes with the dashboard-mounted
air conditioning systems installed by the
chassis manufacturer. For those vehicles
that have A/C systems installed by a
second stage manufacturer, EPA is
proposing revisions to our regulations
that would resolve the issues identified
in Phase 1, in what we believe is a
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practical and feasible manner, as
described below in Section V.E.
For the above reasons, in Phase 2,
EPA now believes that it is reasonable
to propose A/C refrigerant leakage
standards for Class 2b–8 vocational
vehicles, beginning with the 2021 model
year. Chassis sold as cab-completes
typically have air conditioning systems
installed by the chassis manufacturer.
For these configurations, the process for
certifying that low leakage components
are used would follow the system in
place currently for comparable systems
in tractors. In the case where a chassis
manufacturer would rely on a second
stage manufacturer to install a
compliant air conditioning system, the
chassis manufacturer must follow the
proposed delegated assembly provisions
described below in Section V.E.
(4) Proposed Exemptions and
Exclusions
(a) Proposed Standards for Emergency
Vehicles
Emergency vehicles are covered by
the Phase 1 program at the same level
of stringency as any other vocational
vehicle. In discussions with
representatives of the Fire Apparatus
Manufacturers Association, the agencies
have learned that chassis manufacturers
of fire apparatus are currently able to
obtain compliant engines and tires with
the coefficient of rolling resistance
allowing compliance with the Phase 1
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36.1202
21.2670
21.4921
21.0420
22.0547
22.2797
21.1545
standards. The agencies are proposing
in Phase 2 to allow emergency vehicles
to meet less stringent standards than
other vocational vehicles. There are two
reasons for doing so. First, as the level
of complexity of Phase 2 would increase
with the need for additional
technologies aimed to improve driveline
efficiency, the compliance burden
would be disproportionately high for a
company that manufactures small
volumes of specialized chassis. The
ability of such a company to benefit
from averaging would be limited, as
would be the ability to spread
compliance costs across many vehicles.
The second and more important reason
is that emergency vehicles, which are
necessarily built for high levels of
performance and reliability, would
likely sacrifice some levels of function
to attain the proposed Phase 2
standards. For example, vehicles with
large engines, high-torque powertrains,
and tires designed with deep tread
would likely be deficit-producing
vehicles if manufacturers needed to
certify an emergency vehicle family to
the primary proposed standards.
In the MY 2017–2025 light-duty rule,
the agencies adopted an exclusion for
emergency and police vehicles from
GHG and fuel economy standards.265 As
described in that rule, the unique
features of purpose-built emergency
vehicles, such as high rolling resistance
265 See
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tires, reinforced suspensions, and
special calibrations of engines and
transmissions, have the effect of raising
their GHG emissions. The agencies
determined in that rule that an
exemption was appropriate because the
technological feasibility issues for
emergency vehicles went beyond those
of other high-performance vehicles, and
vehicles with these performance
characteristics must continue to be
made available in the market. The
agencies do not believe that nonemergency vocational vehicles are
designed for the severe duty cycles that
are experienced by emergency vehicles,
and therefore do not face the same
potential constraints in terms of vehicle
design and the application of
technology.
In conducting an independent
technological feasibility assessment for
heavy-duty emergency vehicles, the
agencies believe that some GHG and
fuel saving technologies could
reasonably be applied without
compromising vehicle utility. However,
these vehicles are designed, built, and
operated so differently than other
vocational vehicles that we believe
keeping them in the same averaging sets
as other vocational vehicles in Phase 2
would not be appropriate and thus a
separate standard (evaluated from a
baseline specific to these vehicles) is
warranted.
Our feasibility analysis and the
available tire data indicate that
emergency vehicle manufacturers can
reasonably continue to apply tires with
the Phase 1 level tire CRR performance,
in the Phase 2 program. We have also
learned that a variety of vehicle-level
technologies are being developed
specifically for emergency vehicles, to
maintain on-board electronics without
excessive idling. Modern fire apparatus
and ambulances typically have multiple
computers and other electronic devices
on-board, each of which requires power
and continues to draw electricity when
the vehicle is parked and the crew is
responding to an emergency, which
could take several hours. Most on-board
batteries and alternators are not capable
of sustaining these power demands for
any length of time, so emergency
vehicles must either operate in a highidle mode or adopt one of several
possible technologies that can assist
with electrical load management. Some
of these technologies can enable an
emergency vehicle to shut down the
main engine and drastically reduce idle
emissions.266 NHTSA and EPA have not
266 See
‘‘How to solar power a fire truck or
ambulance,’’ available at https://
www.firerescue1.com/fire-products/apparatus-
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based the proposed emergency vehicle
standards on use of idle reduction
technologies because we do not believe
the regular neutral idle and stop-start
technologies we project for other
vocational vehicles could apply equally
to emergency vehicles, and we do not
have enough information about this
subset of idle reduction technologies
that is designed for extended electrical
load management to either estimate an
effectiveness value or determine an
appropriate market adoption rate. The
agencies request comment on whether
we should include any market adoption
rate of idle reduction technologies for
emergency vehicles, as part of the basis
for the Phase 2 emergency vocational
vehicle standard.
To address both the technical
feasibility and the compliance burden,
the agencies are proposing less stringent
standards that also have a simplified
compliance method. Because the
potential trade-offs between
performance and fuel efficiency apply
equally to any emergency vehicle
manufacturer, the agencies propose that
these less stringent standards would
apply for commercial chassis
manufacturers of emergency vehicles, as
well as for custom chassis
manufacturers. The standard for
vehicles identified at the time of
certification as being intended for
emergency service would be predicated
solely on the continued use of lower
rolling resistance tires, at the Phase 2
baseline level (i.e. compliant with Phase
1).267
With respect to standards for engines
used in these emergency vehicles, based
on what we have learned from
discussions with engine manufacturers,
we understand that engines designed for
heavy-duty emergency vehicles are
generally higher-emitting than other
engines. However, if we maintain a
separate engine standard and regulatory
flexibility such as ABT, fire apparatus
manufacturers would be able to obtain
engines that, on average, meet the
proposed Phase 2 engine standards. The
agencies further recognize that the
proposed engine map inputs to GEM in
the primary program would pose a
difficulty for emergency vehicle
manufacturers. If we required enginespecific inputs then these manufacturers
would have to apply extra vehicle
technologies to compensate for the
necessary but higher-emitting engine.
The agencies are therefore not proposing
to recognize engine performance as part
accessories/articles/1934440-How-to-solar-power-afire-truck-or-ambulance/, accessed November 2014.
267 See 40 CFR 86.1803–01 for the applicable
definition of emergency vehicle.
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of the vehicle standard for emergency
vehicles. Manufacturers of these
vehicles would be expected to install an
engine that is certified to the applicable
separate Phase 2 engine standard.
However, under the simplified
compliance method we are proposing,
emergency vehicle manufacturers would
not follow the otherwise applicable
Phase 2 proposed approach of entering
an engine map in GEM. Instead a Phase
1 style GEM interface would be made
available, where an EPA default engine
specified by rule would be simulated in
GEM. The agencies request comments
on the merits of using an equation-based
compliance approach for emergency
vehicle manufacturers, similar to the
approach proposed for trailer
manufacturers and described in Section
IV.F.
This approach is consistent with the
approach recommended by the Small
Business Advocacy Review Panel,
which believed it would be feasible for
small emergency vehicle manufacturers
to install a Phase 2-compliant engine,
but recommended a simplified
certification approach to reduce the
number of required GEM inputs.
Consistent with the recommendations of
this panel, the agencies are asking for
comments on whether there would be
enough fuel consumption and CO2
emissions benefits achieved by use of
LRR tires in emergency vehicles to
justify requiring small business
emergency chassis manufacturers to
adopt them.
We expect some commercial chassis
manufacturers that serve the emergency
vehicle market may have the ability to
meet the proposed Phase 2 standards of
our primary program when including
emergency vehicles in their averaging
sets. Even so, we are proposing that they
have the option to comply with the less
stringent standards, because there are
fewer opportunities to improve fuel
efficiency on emergency vehicles, which
(as noted) are designed for high levels
of performance and severe duty. The
agencies expect that this compliance
path would be most needed by custom
chassis manufacturers who serve the
emergency vehicle market. Custom
chassis manufacturers typically offer a
narrow range of products with low sales
volumes. Therefore, fleet averaging
would provide a lower level of
compliance flexibility, and there would
be less opportunity to spread the costs
of developing advanced technologies
across a large number of vehicles.
Further, many custom chassis
manufacturers do not qualify as small
entities under the SBA regulations.
Thus, the agencies believe that existence
of program-wide ABT does not vitiate
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the need to propose alternative, less
stringent standards for emergency
vehicles.
Table V–10 below presents the
proposed numerical standards to which
an emergency vehicle chassis would be
certified under this provision.
Emergency vehicles certified to these
proposed emergency vehicle standards
would be ineligible to generate credits.
The proposed standards shown below
were derived by building a model of
three baseline vehicles (LHD, MHD,
HHD) using attributes similar to those
developed for the primary program as
assigned to the Urban drive cycle
subcategories. By modeling a 2021compliant engine and tires with CRR of
7.7, the MY 2021 standards were
derived using GEM. Details of these
configurations are provided in the draft
RIA Chapter 2.
TABLE V–10—PROPOSED STANDARDS FOR CLASS 2b–8 EMERGENCY VEHICLES FOR MY 2021 AND LATER
Light
heavy-duty
class
2b–5
Implementation year
Medium
heavy-duty
class 6–7
Heavy
heavy-duty
class 8
Proposed EPA Emergency Vehicle Standard (gram CO2/ton-mile)
MY2021 ........................................................................................................................................
312
195
215
19.1552
21.1198
Proposed NHTSA Emergency Vehicle Standard (Fuel Consumption gallon per 1,000 ton-mile)
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MY2021 ........................................................................................................................................
The agencies have estimated the costs
of vocational vehicle technology
packages, as presented below in Table
V–20 to Table V–22. The technologies
on which the proposed emergency
vehicle standards are based include
engines, LRR tires, and leak-tight air
conditioning systems. Using the
estimated costs of those technologies as
presented, the agencies estimate that the
average cost for a heavy heavy-duty or
medium-heavy-duty emergency vehicle
to meet the proposed emergency vehicle
standards would be approximately $463
in MY 2027, and the average cost for a
light heavy-duty emergency vehicle
would be approximately $497 in MY
2027. To derive these estimates, the
agencies have combined the $7 cost of
LRR tires that is presented in Table V–
20 with the engine and air conditioning
costs presented in Table V–22. The
agencies are not aware of any emergency
vehicle manufacturer that produces
engines, thus most of these costs would
be borne by engine manufacturers.
While some of the added engine costs
may be passed on to emergency vehicle
manufacturers and vehicle owners/
operators, the overall costs of these
technologies are on the order of the
Phase 1 vocational vehicle program
costs, which are highly cost-effective.
To ensure that only emergency
vehicle chassis would be able to certify
to these less stringent standards, the
agencies propose that manufacturers
identify vehicles using the definition at
40 CFR 86.1803–01, which for Phase 2
purposes would be an ambulance or a
fire truck. Manufacturers have informed
us that it is feasible to identify such
vehicles using sales codes or the
presence of specialty attributes. The
agencies request comment on the merits
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and drawbacks of aligning the definition
of emergency vehicle for purposes of the
Phase 2 program with the definition of
emergency vehicle for purposes of the
light-duty GHG provisions under 40
CFR 86.1818, which includes additional
vehicles such as those used by law
enforcement.
According to the International
Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT),
less than one percent of all new heavyduty truck registrations from 2003 to
2007 were emergency vehicles.268 On
average, the ICCT’s data suggest that
approximately 5,700 new emergency
vehicles are sold in the U.S. each year;
about 0.8 percent of the 3.4 million new
heavy-duty trucks registered between
2003 and 2007. According to the Fire
Apparatus Manufacturers Association,
the annual VMT of the newest
emergency vehicles ranges from
approximately 2,000 to 8,000 miles, as
documented in their 2004 Fire
Apparatus Duty Cycle White Paper.269
Because there are relatively few of these
vehicles and they travel a relatively
small number of miles, the agencies
believe that setting less stringent GHG
and fuel consumptions standards for
these vehicles would not detract from
the greater benefits of this rulemaking,
and such separate standards are
warranted in any case.
268 ICCT, May 2009, ‘‘Heavy-Duty Vehicle Market
Analysis: Vehicle Characteristics & Fuel Use,
Manufacturer Market Shares.’’
269 Fire Apparatus Manufacturer’s Association,
Fire Apparatus Duty Cycle White Paper, August
2004, available at https://www.deepriverct.us/
firehousestudy/reports/Apparatus-Duty-Cycle.pdf.
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30.6483
(b) Possible Standards for Other Custom
Chassis Manufacturers
The agencies request comment on
extending the above simplified
compliance procedure and less stringent
Phase 2 standards to other custom
chassis manufacturers—those who offer
such a narrow range of products that
averaging is not of practical value as a
compliance flexibility, and for whom
there are not large sales volumes over
which to distribute technology
development costs. Custom chassis
manufacturers that are not small
businesses must comply with the Phase
1 standards and are generally doing so,
by installing tires with the required
coefficient of rolling resistance. We are
aware of a handful of U.S. chassis
manufacturers serving the recreational
vehicle and bus markets who we believe
would have a disproportionate
compliance burden, should we require
compliance with the primary proposed
Phase 2 standards.
According to the MOVES model
forecast, there will be approximately
1,000 commercial intercity coach buses,
5,000 transit buses, 40,000 school buses,
and 90,000 recreational vehicles
manufactured new for MY 2018.270 In
each of these markets, specialty chassis
manufacturers compete with large
vertically integrated manufacturers. We
request comment on the merits of
offering less stringent standards to small
volume chassis manufacturers, and seek
comment as well as to other factors the
agencies should consider to ensure this
270 Vehicle populations are estimated using
MOVES2014. More information on projecting
populations in MOVES is available in the following
report: USEPA (2015). ‘‘Population and Activity of
On-road Vehicles in MOVES2014—Draft Report’’
Docket No. EPA–HQ–OAR–2014–0827.
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approach would not have unintended
consequences for businesses competing
in the vocational vehicle market.
If the agencies were to adopt less
stringent standards for custom nonemergency chassis manufacturers, we
would expect to limit this by setting a
maximum number of eligible vocational
chassis annually for each such
manufacturer. The agencies request
comment on an appropriate sales
volume to qualify for these possible
standards, and also request comment as
to whether the sales volume thresholds
should be different for different markets.
We further request comment on whether
it would adversely affect business
competitiveness if custom chassis
manufacturers were held to a different
standard than commercial chassis
manufacturers, and whether the
agencies should consider allowing
commercial chassis manufacturers
competing in these markets to sell a
limited number of chassis certified to a
less stringent standard.
As an alternative approach, the
agencies request comment on providing
custom chassis manufacturers with
additional lead time to comply. For
example, we could allow such
manufacturers an additional one or two
years to meet each level of the primary
proposed vocational vehicle standards.
If the agencies pursued the approach
of less stringent standards, we would
likely adopt a simplified compliance
procedure similar to the one proposed
for emergency vehicles. Custom chassis
manufacturers would not follow the
otherwise applicable Phase 2 proposed
approach of entering an engine map in
GEM. Instead, a Phase 1 style GEM
interface would be made available,
where an EPA default engine specified
by rule would be simulated in GEM.
The vehicle-level standard would be
predicated on a simpler set of
technologies than the primary proposed
Phase 2 standard, most likely lower
rolling resistance tires and idle
reduction. Because these would not be
emergency vehicles, we believe the
performance of these vehicles would not
be compromised by requiring
improvement in tire CRR beyond that of
the Phase 1 level. The agencies request
comment on whether we should
develop separate standards for different
vehicle types such as recreational
vehicles and buses.
The Small Business Advocacy Review
Panel recommended that EPA seek
comment on how to design a small
business vocational vehicle exemption
by means of a custom chassis volume
exemption and what sales volume
would be an appropriate threshold. The
agencies seek comments on all aspects
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of an approach for custom vocational
vehicle chassis manufacturers that
would enable us to adopt a final Phase
2 program that would be consistent with
the recommendations of the panel.
(c) Off-Road and Low-Speed Vocational
Vehicle Exemptions
The agencies are proposing to
continue the exemptions in Phase 1 for
off-road and low-speed vocational
vehicles, with revision. See generally 76
FR 57175. These provisions currently
apply for vehicles that are defined as
‘‘motor vehicles’’ per 40 CFR 85.1703,
but may conduct most of their
operations off-road, such as drill rigs,
mobile cranes and yard hostlers.
Vehicles qualifying under these
provisions must be built with engines
certified to meet the applicable engine
standard, but need not comply with a
vehicle-level GHG or fuel consumption
standard. In Phase 1, this typically
means not needing to install tires with
a lower coefficient of rolling resistance.
Because manufacturers choosing to
exempt vehicles (but not engines) based
on the criteria for heavy-duty off road
vehicles at 40 CFR 1037.631 and 49 CFR
523.2 will for the first time provide a
description to the agencies of how they
meet the qualifications for this
exemption in their end-of-the year
reports in the spring of 2015, we do not
have information beyond what we knew
at the time of the Phase 1 rules
regarding how broadly this provision is
being used. Nonetheless, we are
proposing to discontinue the criterion
for exemption based solely on use of
tires with maximum speed rating at or
below 55 mph. The agencies are
concerned that tires are so easily
replaced that this would be an
unreliable way to identify vehicles that
truly need special consideration. We are
proposing to retain the qualifying
criteria related to design and use of the
vehicle. We invite comments on the
proposed revisions to the qualifying
criteria in the regulations, including
whether the rated speed of the tires
should be retained, and whether
vehicles intended to be covered by this
provision have characteristics that are
captured by the proposed criteria.
C. Feasibility of the Proposed
Vocational Vehicle Standards
This section describes the agencies’
technological feasibility and cost
analysis in greater detail. Further detail
on all of these technologies can be
found in the draft RIA Chapter 2.4 and
Chapter 2.9. The variation in the design
and use of vocational vehicles has led
the agencies to project different
technology solutions for each regulatory
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subcategory. Manufacturers may also
find additional means to reduce
emissions and lower fuel consumption
than the technologies identified by the
agencies, and of course may adopt any
compliance path they deem most
advantageous. The focus of this section
is on the feasibility of the proposed
standards for non-emergency vocational
vehicles. Further, the agencies project
that these technology packages would
also be feasible for vocational tractors.
With typical driving patterns having
limited operation at highway speeds,
vocational tractors would appropriately
be classified as vocational vehicles, with
proposed standards that would not be
predicated on the performance of
aerodynamic devices. The agencies
propose to allow vocational tractors to
follow the same subcategory assignment
process as other vocational vehicles. For
example, a beverage tractor intended for
local delivery routes may have a driving
pattern that is reasonably represented by
the proposed Urban test cycle. The
agencies request comment on whether
vocational tractors would be deficitgenerating vehicles if certified as
vocational vehicles, where performance
would be measured against the
proposed vocational vehicle baseline
configurations. For example, if a tractor
were designed with a higher power
engine to carry a heavier payload than
presumed in the GEM baseline for that
subcategory, would GEM return a value
that poorly represents the real world
performance of that vehicle, and if so,
would that merit a different certification
approach for vocational tractors?
NHTSA and EPA collected
information on the cost and
effectiveness of fuel consumption and
CO2 emission reducing technologies
from several sources. The primary
sources of information were the
Southwest Research Institute evaluation
of heavy-duty vehicle fuel efficiency
and costs for NHTSA,271 the 2010
National Academy of Sciences report of
Technologies and Approaches to
Reducing the Fuel Consumption of
Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicles,272
TIAX’s assessment of technologies to
support the NAS panel report,273 the
technology cost analysis conducted by
271 Reinhart, T, 2015. Commercial Medium- and
Heavy-Duty (MD/HD) Truck Fuel Efficiency
Technology Study—Reports #1 and #2. Washington,
DC: National Highway Traffic Safety
Administration; and Schubert, R., Chan, M., Law,
K. 2015, Commercial Medium- and Heavy-Duty
(MD/HD) Truck Fuel Efficiency Cost Study.
Washington, DC: National Highway Traffic Safety
Administration.
272 See NAS Report, Note 136, above.
273 See TIAX 2009, Note 137, above.
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ICF for EPA,274 and the 2009 report
from Argonne National Laboratory on
Evaluation of Fuel Consumption
Potential of Medium and Heavy Duty
Vehicles through Modeling and
Simulation.275
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(1) What technologies are the agencies
considering to reduce the CO2 emissions
and fuel consumption of vocational
vehicles?
In assessing the feasibility of the
proposed Phase 2 vocational vehicle
standards, the agencies evaluated a suite
of technologies, including workday idle
reduction, improved tire rolling
resistance, improved transmissions,
improved axles, and weight reduction,
as well as their impact on reducing fuel
consumption and GHG emissions. The
agencies also evaluated aerodynamic
technologies and full electric vehicles.
As discussed above, vocational
vehicles may be powered by either SI or
CI engines. The technologies and
feasibility of the proposed engine
standards are discussed in Section II. At
the vehicle level, the agencies have
considered the same suite of
technologies and have applied the same
reasoning for including or rejecting
these vehicle-level technologies as part
of the basis for the proposed standards,
regardless of whether the vehicle is
powered by a CI or SI engine. With the
exception of the MY 2027 proposed
standards, the analysis below does not
distinguish between vehicles with
different types of engines. The resulting
proposed vehicle standards do reflect
the differences arising from the
performance of different types of
engines over the GEM cycles.
(a) Vehicle Technologies Considered in
Standard-Setting
The agencies note that the
effectiveness values estimated for the
technologies may represent average
values, and do not reflect the
potentially-limitless combination of
possible values that could result from
adding the technology to different
vehicles. For example, while the
agencies have estimated an effectiveness
of 0.5 percent for low friction axle
lubricants, each vehicle could have a
unique effectiveness estimate depending
on the baseline axle’s oil viscosity
rating. For purposes of this proposed
rulemaking, NHTSA and EPA believe
that employing average values for
technology effectiveness estimates is an
appropriate way of recognizing the
274 See
ICF 2010, Note 139, above.
National Laboratory, ‘‘Evaluation of
Fuel Consumption Potential of Medium and Heavy
Duty Vehicles through Modeling and Simulation.’’
October 2009
275 Argonne
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potential variation in the specific
benefits that individual manufacturers
(and individual vehicles) might obtain
from adding a given technology. There
may be real world effectiveness that
exceeds or falls short of the average, but
on-balance the agencies believe this is
the most practicable approach for
determining the wide ranging
effectiveness of technologies in the
diverse vocational vehicle arena.
(i) Transmissions
Transmission improvements present a
significant opportunity for reducing fuel
consumption and CO2 emissions from
vocational vehicles. Transmission
efficiency is important for many
vocational vehicles as their duty cycles
involve high percentages of driving
under transient operation. The three
categories of transmission
improvements the agencies considered
for Phase 2 are driveline optimization,
architectural improvements, and hybrid
powertrain systems.
The agencies believe an effective way
to derive efficiency improvements from
a transmission is by optimizing it with
the engine and other driveline
components to balance both
performance needs and fuel savings.
However, many vocational vehicles
today are not operating with such
optimized systems. Because customers
are able to specify their preferred
components in a highly customized
build process, many vocational vehicles
are assembled with components that
were designed more for compatibility
than for optimization. To some extent,
vertically integrated manufacturers are
able to optimize their drivelines.
However, this is not widespread in the
vocational vehicle sector, resulting
primarily, from the multi-stage
manufacture process. The agencies
project transmission and driveline
optimization will yield a substantial
proportion of vocational vehicle fuel
efficiency and GHG emissions reduction
improvements for Phase 2. On average,
we anticipate that efficiency
improvements of about five percent can
be achieved from optimization, or deep
integration of drivelines. However, we
are not assigning a fixed level of
improvement; rather we have developed
a test procedure, the powertrain test, for
manufacturers to use to obtain
improvement factors representative of
their systems. See Section V.E and the
draft RIA Chapter 3 for a discussion of
this proposed test procedure. Depending
on the test cycle and level of integration,
the agencies believe improvement
factors greater than ten percent above
the baseline vehicle performance could
be achieved. To obtain such benefits
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across more of the vocational vehicle
fleet, the agencies believe there is
opportunity for manufacturers to form
strategic partnerships and to explore
commercial pathways to deeper
driveline integration. For example, one
partnership of an engine manufacturer
and a transmission manufacturer has led
to development of driveline components
that deliver improved fuel efficiency
based on optimization that could not be
realized without sharing of critical
data.276
The agencies project other related
transmission technologies would be
recognized over the powertrain test
along with driveline optimization.
These include improved mechanical
gear efficiency, more sophisticated shift
strategies, more aggressive torque
converter lockups, transmission friction
reduction, and reduced parasitic losses,
as described in the 2009 TIAX report at
4.5.2. Each of these attributes would be
simulated in GEM using default values,
unless the powertrain test were utilized
by the certifying manufacturer. The
draft RIA Chapter 4 explains each
parameter that would be set as a fixed
value in GEM. The expected benefits of
improved gear efficiency, shift logic,
and torque converter lockup are
included in the total projected
effectiveness of optimized conventional
transmissions using the powertrain test.
Transmission efficiency could also be
improved in the time frame of the
proposed rules by changes in the
architecture of conventional
transmissions. Most vocational vehicles
currently use torque converter
automatic transmissions (AT),
especially in Classes 2b-6. According to
the 2009 TIAX report, approximately 70
percent of Class 3–6 box and bucket
trucks use AT, and all refuse trucks,
urban buses, and motor coaches use
AT.277 Automatic transmissions offer
acceleration benefits over drive cycles
with frequent stops, which can enhance
productivity. However, with the
diversity of vocational vehicles and
drive cycles, other kinds of transmission
architectures can meet customer needs,
including automated manual
transmissions (AMT) and even some
manual transmissions (MT).278
One type of architectural
improvement the agencies project will
be developed by manufacturers of all
transmission architectures is increased
number of gears. The benefit of adding
276 See Cummins-Eaton partnership at https://
smartadvantagepowertrain.com/
277 See TIAX 2009, Note 137, above.
278 See https://www.truckinginfo.com/channel/
equipment/article/story/2014/10/2015-mediumduty-trucks-the-vehicles-and-trends-to-look-for/
page/3.aspx (downloaded November 2014).
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more gears varies depending on whether
the gears are added in the range where
most operation occurs. The TIAX 2009
report projected that 8-speed
transmissions could incrementally
reduce fuel consumption by 2 to 3
percent over a 6-speed automatic
transmission, for Class 3–6 box and
bucket trucks, refuse haulers, and transit
buses.279 Although the agencies
estimate the improvement could on
average be about two percent for the
adding of two gears in the range where
significant vehicle operation occurs, we
are not assigning a fixed improvement
based solely on number of transmission
gears. Manufacturers would enter the
number of gears and gear ratios into
GEM and the model would simulate the
efficiency benefit over the applicable
test cycle. Because a public version of
proposed GEM is being released with
these proposed rules, stakeholders are
free to use this tool to explore the
effectiveness of different numbers of
gears and gear ratios over the proposed
test cycles. The agencies request
comment on all aspects of the GEM tool,
including how it models transmissions
and shifting strategies. More details on
GEM are available in the draft RIA
Chapter 4.
Other architectural changes that the
agencies project will offer efficiency
improvements include improved
automated manual transmissions (AMT)
and introduction of dual clutch
transmissions (DCT). Newer versions of
AMT are showing significant
improvements in reliability, such that
the current generation of transmissions
with this architecture is more likely to
retain resale value and win customer
acceptance than early models.280 The
agencies believe AMT generally
compare favorably to manual
transmissions in fuel efficiency, and
while the degree of improvement is
highly driver-dependent, it can be two
percent or greater, depending on the
drive cycle. See Section III for
additional discussion of AMT. The
agencies are not assigning fixed average
performance levels to compare an AMT
with a traditional automatic
transmission. Although the lack of a
torque converter offers AMT an
efficiency advantage in one respect, the
lag in power during shifts is a
disadvantage. For Phase 2, the agencies
279 See
TIAX 2009, Note 137, Table 4–48.
NACFE Confidence Report: Electronically
Controlled Transmissions, at https://
www.truckingefficiency.org/powertrain/automatedmanual-transmissions (January 2015). See also
https://www.overdriveonline.com/auto-vs-manualtransmission-autos-finding-solid-ground-bysharing-data-with-engines/ (accessed November
2014).
280 See
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have developed validated models of
both AMT and AT, as described in the
draft RIA Chapter 4. Manufacturers
installing AMT or AT would enter the
relevant inputs to GEM and the
simulation would calculate the
performance. Dual clutch transmissions
(DCT) designed for medium heavy-duty
vocational vehicles are already in
production, and could reasonably be
expected to be adapted for other weight
classes of vocational vehicles during the
time frame of Phase 2.281 Based on
supplier conversations, manufacturers
intend to match varying DCT designs
with the diverse needs of the heavyduty market. The agencies do not yet
have a validated DCT model in GEM,
and we are not assigning a fixed
performance level for DCT, though we
expect the per-vehicle fuel efficiency
improvement due to switching from
automatic to DCT to be in the range of
three percent over the GEM vocational
vehicle test cycles. Selection of
transmission architecture type (Manual,
AMT, AT, DCT) would be made by
manufacturers at the time of
certification, and GEM would either use
this input information to simulate that
transmission using algorithms as
described in the draft RIA Chapter 4, or
fixed improvements may be assigned.
The agencies are assigning fixed levels
of improvement that vary by test cycle
in GEM for AMT when replacing a
manual, which for vocational vehicles
would be in the HHD Regional
subcategory. If a manufacturer elected
not to conduct powertrain testing to
obtain specific improvements for use of
a DCT, GEM would simulate a DCT as
if it were an AMT, with no fixed
assigned benefit. The draft RIA at
Chapter 2.9 describes the projected
effectiveness of each type of
transmission improvement for each
vocational vehicle test cycle.
Hybrid powertrain systems are
included under transmission
technologies because, depending on the
design and degree of hybridization, they
may either replace a conventional
transmission or be deeply integrated
with a conventional transmission.
Further, these systems are often
manufactured by companies that also
manufacture conventional
transmissions.
The agencies are including hybrid
powertrains as a technology on which
some of the proposed vocational vehicle
standards are predicated. We project a
variety of mild and strong hybrid
281 See Eaton Announcement September 2014,
available at https://www.ttnews.com/articles/
lmtbase.aspx?storyid=2969&t=Eaton-UnveilsMedium-Duty-Procision-Transmission.
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systems, with a wide range of
effectiveness. Mild hybrid systems that
offer an engine stop-start feature are
discussed below under workday idle
reduction. For hybrid powertrains, we
are estimating a 22 to 25 percent fuel
efficiency improvement over the
powertrain test, depending on the duty
cycle in GEM for the applicable
subcategory. The agencies obtained
these estimates by projecting a 27
percent effectiveness over the ARB
Transient cycle, and zero percent over
the constant-speed highway cruise
cycles. With the proposed cycle
weightings, this calculates to a 25
percent improvement over the Urban
cycle, and 22 percent over the MultiPurpose cycle. According to the NREL
Final Evaluation of UPS Diesel HybridElectric Delivery Vans, the improvement
of a hybrid over a conventional diesel in
gallons per ton-mile on a chassis
dynamometer over the NYC Composite
test cycle was 28 percent.282 NREL
characterizes the NYC Composite cycle
as more aggressive than most of the
observed field data points from the
study, and may represent an ideal
hybrid cycle in terms of low average
speed, high stops per mile, and high
kinetic intensity. NREL noted that most
of the observed field data points were
reasonably represented by the HTUF4
cycle, over which the chassis
dynamometer results showed a 31
percent improvement in gallons per tonmile. In units of grams CO2 per mile,
NREL reported these test results as 22
percent improvement over the NYC
Composite cycle and 26 percent
improvement over the HTUF4 cycle.
Based on these results, and the fact that
any improvement from strong hybrids in
Phase 2 would not be simulated in
GEM, but rather would be evaluated
using the powertrain test, the agencies
deemed it reasonable to estimate a
conservative 27 percent effectiveness
over the ARB Transient in setting the
stringency of the proposed standards.
The Phase 1 standards were not
predicated on any adoption of hybrid
powertrains in the vocational vehicle
sector. Because the first implementation
year of Phase 1 came just three years
after promulgation, there was
insufficient lead time for development
and deployment of the technology.283 In
addition, our proposed Phase 2
282 Lammert, M., Walkowivz, K., NREL, EighteenMonth Final Evaluation of UPS Second Generation
Diesel Hybrid-Electric Delivery Vans, September
2012, NREL/TP–5400–55658.
283 In addition to concerns over adequacy of lead
time, the agencies described concerns over
‘‘modest’’ emission reductions. See 76 FR 57234.
Even so, in Phase 1 the agencies adopted provisions
for hybrids to generate advanced technology credits.
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vocational vehicle GEM test cycles are
expected to better recognize hybrid
technology effectiveness than the Phase
1 hybrid test cycle, especially in the
Urban subcategory. Further, our Phase 2
cost analysis shows that hybrid systems
designed for LHD and MHD vocational
vehicles would cost less than the costs
we were projecting in Phase 1. The
agencies believe the Phase 2 rulemaking
timeframes would offer sufficient lead
time to develop, demonstrate, and
conduct reliability testing for
technologies that are still maturing,
including these hybrid technologies.
Several types of vocational vehicles
are well suited for hybrid powertrains,
and are among the early adopters of this
technology. Vehicles such as utility or
bucket trucks, delivery vehicles, refuse
haulers, and buses have operational
usage patterns with either a significant
amount of stop-and-go activity or spend
a large portion of their operating hours
idling the main engine to operate a PTO
unit.
The industry is currently developing
many variations of hybrid powertrain
systems. There are a few hybrid systems
in the market today and several more
under development. In addition, energy
storage systems are improving.284
Heavy-duty customers are getting used
to these systems with the number of
demonstration products on the road.
Even so, some manufacturers may be
uncertain how much investment to
make in this technology without clear
signals about future market demand. A
list of hybrid manufacturers and their
products intended for the vocational
market is provided in the draft RIA
Chapter 2.9.
Some low cost products on the simple
end of the hybrid spectrum are available
that minimize battery demand through
the use of ultracapacitors or only
provide power assist at low speeds. Our
regulations define a hybrid system as
one that has the capacity for energy
storage.285 In the light-duty GHG
program a mild hybrid is defined as
including an integrated starter
generator, a high-voltage battery (above
12v), and a capacity to recover at least
15 percent of the braking energy. In
such systems some accessories are
usually electrified. Strong hybrids are
typically referred to as those that have
larger energy recovery and storage
capacity, defined at 65 percent braking
energy recovery in the light-duty GHG
program. Although integration of a
strong hybrid system may enable
installation of a downsized engine in
some cases, the agencies have not
projected any vocational engine
downsizing for any hybrid systems as
part of our Phase 2 technology
assessment. This is in part to be
conservative in our cost estimates, and
in part because in some applications a
smaller engine may not be acceptable if
it would risk that performance could be
sacrificed during some portion of a work
day. Depending on the drive cycle and
units of measurement, strong hybrids
developed to date have seen fuel
consumption and CO2 emissions
reductions between 20 and 50 percent
in the field.286
The agencies are working to reduce
barriers related to hybrid vehicle
certification. In Phase 1, there is a
significant test burden associated with
demonstrating the GHG and fuel
efficiency performance of vehicles with
hybrid powertrain systems.
Manufacturers must obtain a
conventional vehicle that is identical to
the hybrid vehicle in every way except
the transmission, test both, and compare
the results.287 In Phase 2, the agencies
are proposing that manufacturers would
conduct powertrain testing on the
hybrid system, and the results of that
testing would become inputs to GEM for
simulation of the non-powertrain
features of the hybrid vehicle, removing
a significant test burden.
In discussions with manufacturers
during the development of Phase 2, the
agencies have learned that meeting the
on-board diagnostic requirements for
criteria pollutant engine certification
continues to be a potential impediment
to adoption of hybrid systems. See
Section XIV.A.1 for a discussion of
regulatory changes proposed to reduce
the non-GHG certification burden for
engines paired with hybrid powertrain
systems. The agencies have also
received a letter from the California Air
Resources Board requesting
consideration of supplemental NOX
testing of hybrids. The agencies request
comment on the Air Resources Board’s
letter and recommendations.288
284 Green Fleet Magazine, The Latest
Developments in EV Battery Technology, November
2013, available at https://
www.greenfleetmagazine.com/article/story/2013/
12/the-latest-developments-in-ev-batterytechnology-grn/page/1.aspx.
285 EPA’s and NHTSA’s regulations define a
hybrid vehicle as one that ‘‘includes energy storage
features . . . in addition to an internal combustion
engine or other engine using consumable chemical
fuel. . . .’’ at 40 CFR 1037.801 and 49 CFR 535.4.
286 Van Amburg, Bill, CALSTART, Status Report:
Alternative Fuels and High-Efficiency Vehicles,
Presentation to National Association of Fleet
Administrators (NAFA) 2014 Institute and Expo,
April 8, 2014.
287 See test procedures at 40 CFR 1037.555.
288 California Air Resources Board. Letter from
Michael Carter to Matthew Spears dated December
29, 2014. CARB Request for Supplemental NOX
Emission Check for Hybrid Vehicles. Docket EPA–
HA–OAR–2014–0827.
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(ii) Axles
The agencies are considering two axle
technologies for the vocational vehicle
sector. The first is advanced low friction
axle lubricants. Under contract with
NHTSA, SwRI tested improved
driveline lubrication and found
measurable improvements by switching
from current mainstream products to
newer formulations focusing on
modified viscometric effects.289
Synthetic lubricant formulations can
offer superior thermal and oxidative
stability compared to petroleum or
mineral based lubricants. The agencies
believe that a 0.5 percent improvement
in vocational vehicle efficiency (as for
tractors) is achievable through the
application of low friction axle
lubricants, and have included that value
as a fixed value in GEM. Beyond the use
of different lubricant formulations, some
axle manufacturers are offering products
that achieve efficiency improvements by
varying the lubrication levels with
vehicle speed, reducing churning losses.
The agencies request comment on
whether we could accept these systems
as qualifying for a fixed GEM
improvement value. If a manufacturer
wishes to demonstrate the benefit of a
specific axle technology, an off-cycle
technology credit would be necessary.
To support such an application,
manufacturers could conduct a rear axle
efficiency test, as described in the draft
RIA Chapter 3.8. Proposed regulations
for this test procedure can be found at
40 CFR 1037.560. Our estimated axle
lubricating costs do not include
operational costs such as refreshing
lubricants on a periodic basis. Based on
supplier information, it is likely that
some advanced lubricants may have a
longer drain interval than traditional
lubricants. We are estimating the axle
lubricating costs for HHD to be the same
as for tractors since those vehicles
likewise typically have three axles.
However, for LHD and MHD vocational
vehicles, we scaled down the cost of
this technology to reflect the presence of
a single rear axle.
The second axle technology the
agencies are considering is a design that
enables one of the rear axles to
disconnect or otherwise behave as if it’s
a non-driven axle, on vehicles with two
rear (drive) axles, commonly referred to
as a 6x2 configuration. The agencies
have considered two types of 6x2
configurations for vocational vehicles:
289 Reinhart, T.E. (June 2015). Commercial
Medium- and Heavy-Duty Truck Fuel Efficiency
Technology Study—Report #1. (Report No. DOT HS
812 146). Washington, DC: National Highway
Traffic Safety Administration (the 2015 NHTSA
Technology Study). For axle improvements see T–
270 Delivery Truck Vehicle Technology Results.
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Those that are engaged full time on a
vehicle, and those that may be engaged
only during some types of vehicle
operation, such as only when operating
at highway cruise speeds. Some early
versions of 6x2 technology offered by
manufacturers were not accepted by
vehicle owners. When the second drive
axle is no longer powered, traction may
be sacrificed in some cases. Vehicles
with earlier versions of this technology
have seen reduced residual values in the
secondary market. Over the model years
covered by the Phase 2 rules, the
agencies expect the market to offer
significantly improved versions of this
technology, with traction control
maintained at lower speeds and
efficiency gains at highway cruise
speeds.290 Further information about
this technology is provided in the
feasibility of the tractor standards,
Section III, as well as in draft RIA
Chapter 2.4.
The efficiency benefit of a 6x2 axle
configuration can be duty-cycle
dependent. In many instances,
vocational vehicles need to operate offhighway, such as at a construction site
delivering materials or dumping at a
refuse collection facility. In these cases,
vehicles with two drive axles may need
the full tractive benefit of both drive
axles. The part-time 6x2 axle technology
is not expected to measurably improve
a vehicle’s efficiency for vehicles whose
normal duty cycle involves performing
significant off-highway work, but the
agencies do expect this technology to be
recognized over a highway cruise cycle.
Some vocational vehicles in the HHD
Regional subcategory may see a 6x2 axle
configuration as a reasonable option for
improving fuel efficiency. As in Phase 1,
our vehicle simulation model assumes
that only HHD vehicles have two rear
axles, so only these could be recognized
for adopting this technology. Further,
the agencies don’t believe the
Multipurpose and Urban subcategories
include a significant enough highway
cycle weighting in the composite cycle
for vehicles that operate in this manner
to experience a benefit from adopting
this technology. The agencies project
this can achieve 2 percent benefit at
highway cruise; 291 thus, we propose to
assign a fixed value in GEM for parttime 6x2 technology of 2.5 percent over
the highway cruise cycles, where the
specific improvement would be
290 NACFE, Confidence Findings on the Potential
of 6x2 Axles, available at https://nacfe.org/wpcontent/uploads/2014/01/Trucking-Efficiency-6x2Confidence-Report-FINAL–011314.pdf, January
2014 (downloaded November 2014).
291 See 2015 NHTSA Technology Study, Note
289, T–700 Class 8 Tractor-Trailer Vehicle
Technology Results.
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calculated according to the composite
weighting of the applicable vocational
vehicle test cycle. We request comment
on the best way to recognize this
technology in Phase 2, either through a
GEM calculation or a fixed assigned
value, for vocational vehicles.
(iii) Lower Rolling Resistance Tires
Tires are the second largest
contributor to energy losses of
vocational vehicles, as found in the
energy audit conducted by Argonne
National Lab.292 There is a wide range
of rolling resistance of tires used on
vocational vehicles today. This is in part
due to the fact that the competitive
pressure to improve rolling resistance of
vocational vehicle tires has been less
than that found in the line haul tire
market. In addition, the drive cycles
typical for these applications often lead
vocational vehicle buyers to value tire
traction and durability more heavily
than rolling resistance. The agencies
acknowledge there can be tradeoffs
when designing a tire for reduced
rolling resistance. These tradeoffs can
include characteristics such as wear
resistance, cost and scuff resistance.
However, based on input from tire
suppliers, the agencies expect that the
LRR tires that will be available in the
Phase 2 timeframe will not compromise
performance parameters such as
traction, handling, wear, retreadability,
or structural durability.
After the Phase 1 rules were
promulgated, NHTSA and EPA
conducted supplemental tire testing.
Other data that have become available to
the agencies since Phase 1 include precertification data provided to
manufacturers by tire suppliers in
preparation for MY 2014 vehicle
certification.293 The agencies
categorized the data by tire position and
vehicle application, so that we have a
representation of the variety of LRR
vocational vehicle tires that are
available in the market for the drive
position, steer and all-position tires, as
well as wide base singles in all
positions. Based on our data set that
includes results from multiple
laboratories, drive tires that are
intended for vocational vehicles have an
average CRR of 7.8, and steer and allposition tires that are intended for
vocational vehicles have an average CRR
of 6.7. The results also indicate that
there are a variety of wide based single
tires that are intended for vocational
vehicles, with an average CRR of 6.6.
292 See Argonne National Laboratory 2009 report,
Note 275, page 91.
293 See memorandum dated May 2015 on
Vocational Vehicle Tire Rolling Resistance Test
Data Evaluation.
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Each of these data sets shows several
models of commercial tires are available
at levels of CRR ranging generally from
20 percent worse than average to 20
percent better than average. Further
details are presented in the draft RIA
Chapter 2.
According to the 2015 NHTSA
Technology Study, vocational vehicles
are likely to see the most benefits from
reduced tire rolling resistance when
they are driving at 55 mph.294 This
report also found an influence of vehicle
weight on the benefits of LRR tires. The
study found that both vocational
vehicles tested had greater benefits of
LRR tires at 100 percent payload than
when empty. Also, the T270 delivery
box truck that was 4,000 lbs heavier
when fully loaded saw slightly greater
efficiency gains from LRR tires than the
F650 flatbed tow truck over the same
cycles. At higher speeds, aerodynamic
drag grows, which reduces the rolling
resistance share of total vehicle power
demand. In highly transient cycles, the
power required to accelerate the vehicle
inertia overshadows the rolling
resistance power demand. In
simulation, GEM represents vocational
vehicles with fixed vehicle weights,
payloads and aerodynamic coefficients.
Thus, the benefit of LRR tires will be
reflected in GEM differently for vehicles
of different weight classes. There will
also be further differences arising from
the different test cycles. Based on
preliminary simulations, it appears the
vehicles in GEM most likely to see the
greatest fuel efficiency gains from use of
LRR tires are those in the MHD weight
classes tested over the Regional or
Multipurpose duty cycles, where one
percent efficiency improvement could
be achieved by reducing CRR by four to
five percent. Those seeing the least
benefit from LRR tires would likely be
Class 8 vehicles tested over the Urban
or Multipurpose cycles, where one
percent efficiency improvement could
be achieved by reducing CRR by seven
to eight percent.
The agencies propose to continue the
light truck (LT) tire CRR adjustment
factor that was adopted in Phase 1. See
generally 76 FR 57172–57174. In Phase
1, the agencies developed this
adjustment factor by dividing the
overall vocational test average CRR of
7.7 by the LT vocational average CRR of
8.9. This yielded an adjustment factor of
0.87. After promulgation of the Phase 1
rules, the agencies conducted additional
tire CRR testing on a variety of LT tires,
most of which were designated as all294 See 2015 NHTSA Technology Study, Note
289, T–270 Delivery Truck Vehicle Technology
Results
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position tires. In addition,
manufacturers have submitted to the
agencies pre-certification data that
include CRR values provided by tire
suppliers. For the small subset of newer
test tires that were designated as steer
tires, the average CRR was 7.8 kg/ton.
For the subset of newer test tires that
were designated as drive tires, the
average CRR was 8.6 kg/ton. However
all-position tires had an average CRR of
8.9 kg/ton.295 Therefore, for LT
vocational vehicle tires, we propose to
continue allowing the measured CRR
values to be multiplied by a 0.87
adjustment factor before entering the
values in the GEM for compliance,
because this additional testing has not
revealed compelling information that a
change is needed. We request comment
on whether the adjustment factor should
be retained, as well as data on which to
base a possible update of its numerical
value.
As described above in V. B. (4) (c), the
agencies are proposing to continue the
Phase 1 off-road and low speed
exemptions in Phase 2, with the
proposed revision of discontinuing the
option to qualify for this exemption
solely if the vehicle is fitted with tires
that have a maximum speed rating at or
below 55 mph. The agencies welcome
comments on this revision.
(iv) Workday Idle Reduction
The Phase 2 idle reduction
technologies considered for vocational
vehicles are those that reduce workday
idling, unlike the overnight idling of
combination tractors. There are many
potential technologies. The agencies in
particular evaluated neutral idle and
stop-start technologies, and the
proposed standards are predicated on
projected amounts of penetrations of
these technologies, described in Section
V. C. (2) . While neutral idle is
necessarily a transmission technology,
stop-start could range from an engine
technology to one that would be
installed by a secondary manufacturer
under a delegated assembly agreement.
The agencies are aware that for a
vocational vehicle’s engine to turn off
during workday driving conditions,
there must be a reserve source of energy
to maintain functions such as power
steering, cabin heat, and transmission
pressure, among others. Stop-start
systems can be viewed as having a place
on the low-cost end of the hybridization
continuum. As described in Section V.
C. (2) and in the draft RIA Chapter 2.9,
the agencies are including the cost of
energy storage sufficient to maintain
critical onboard systems and restart the
engine as part of the cost of vocational
vehicle stop-start packages. The
technologies to capture this energy
could include a system of photovoltaic
cells on the roof of a box truck, or
regenerative braking. The technologies
to store the captured energy could
include a battery or a hydraulic pressure
bladder. More discussion of stop-start
technologies is found in the draft RIA
Chapter 2.4.
The agencies intend for the
technologies that would qualify to be
recognized in GEM as stop-start to be
broadly defined, including those that
may be installed at different stages in
the manufacturing process. The agencies
request comment on an appropriate
definition of stop-start technologies for
vocational vehicles.
The agencies are also proposing a
certification test cycle that measures the
amount of fuel saved and CO2 reduced
by these two primary types of idle
reduction technologies: neutral idle and
stop-start. Vocational vehicles
frequently also idle while cargo is
loaded or unloaded, and while
operating a PTO such as compacting
garbage or operating a bucket. In these
rules, the agencies are proposing that
the Regional duty cycle have ten percent
idle, the Multi-purpose cycle have 15
percent idle, and the Urban cycle have
20 percent idle. These estimates are
based on publically available data
published by NREL.296 To bolster this
information, EPA entered into an
interagency agreement with NREL to
characterize workday idle among
vocational vehicles. One task of this
agreement is to estimate the nationally
representative fraction of idle operation
for vocational vehicles for each
proposed regulatory subcategory
including a distinction between idling
while driving or stopping in gear, and
idling while parked. The preliminary
range of total daily idle operation per
vehicle indicated by this work is about
18 percent to 33 percent when
combining the data from all available
vehicles. The agencies request comment
regarding the nature of vocational
workday idle operation, including how
much of it is in traffic and how much
is while the vehicle is parked.
Depending on comments and additional
information received during the
comment period, it may be within the
agencies’ discretion to adopt different
final test cycles, or re-weight the current
test cycles, to better represent real world
driving and better reflect performance of
the technology packages. An analysis of
possible vocational vehicle standards
296 See
295 See
tire memorandum, Note 293.
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NREL data at https://www.nrel.gov/
vehiclesandfuels/fleettest/research_fleet_dna.html.
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derived from alternate characterizations
of idle operation has been prepared by
the agencies, and is available for review
in the public docket for this
rulemaking.297
Based on GEM simulations using the
currently proposed vocational vehicle
test cycles, the agencies estimate neutral
idle for automatic transmissions to
provide fuel efficiency improvements
ranging from one percent to nearly four
percent, depending on the regulatory
subcategory. The agencies estimate stopstart to provide fuel efficiency
improvements ranging from 0.5 percent
to nearly seven percent, depending on
the regulatory subcategory. Because of
the higher idle weighting factor in the
Urban test cycle, vehicles certified in
these subcategories would derive the
greatest benefit from applying idle
reduction technologies.
Although the primary program would
not simulate vocational vehicles over a
test cycle that includes PTO operation,
the agencies are proposing to continue,
with revisions, the hybrid-PTO test
option that was in Phase 1. See 76 FR
57247 and 40 CFR 1037.525 (proposed
to be redesignated as 40 CFR 1037.540).
Recall that we are proposing to regulate
vocational vehicles at the incomplete
stage when a chassis manufacturer may
not know at the time of certification
whether a PTO will be installed or how
the vehicle will be used. Based on
stakeholder input, chassis
manufacturers are expected to know
whether a vehicle’s transmission is
PTO-enabled. However, that is very
different from knowing whether a PTO
will actually be installed and how it
will be used. Chassis manufacturers
may rarely know whether the PTOenabled vehicle will use this capability
to maneuver a lift gate on a delivery
vehicle, to operate a utility boom, or
merely to keep it as a reserve item to
add value in the secondary market. In
cases where a manufacturer can certify
that a PTO with an idle-reduction
technology will be installed either by
the chassis manufacturer or by a second
stage manufacturer, the hybrid-PTO test
cycle may be utilized by the certifying
manufacturer to measure an
improvement factor over the GEM duty
cycle that would otherwise apply to that
vehicle. In addition, the delegated
assembly provisions would apply. See
Section V.E for a description of the
delegated assembly provisions. See draft
RIA Chapter 3 for a discussion of the
proposed revisions to the PTO test
cycle.
297 See memorandum dated May 2015 on
Analysis of Possible Vocational Vehicle Standards
Based on Alternative Idle Cycle Weightings.
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The agencies have reason to believe
there may be a NOX co-benefit to stopstart idle reduction technologies, e-PTO,
and possibly also to neutral idle. For
this to be true, the benefits of reduced
fuel consumption and retained
aftertreatment temperature would have
to outweigh any extra emissions due to
re-starts. In the draft RIA Chapter 2.9,
there is a more detailed discussion of
the relationship between idle reduction
and NOX co-benefits. The agencies
request comments and relevant test data
that can help inform this issue.
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(v) Weight Reduction
The agencies believe there is
opportunity for weight reduction in
some vocational vehicles. According to
the 2009 TIAX report, there are freightefficiency benefits to reducing weight
on vocational vehicles that carry heavy
cargo, and tax savings potentially
available to vocational vehicles that
remain below excise tax weight
thresholds. This report also estimates
that the cost effectiveness of weight
reduction over urban drive cycles is
potentially greater than the cost
effectiveness of weight reduction for
long haul tractors and trailers. On a city
duty cycle, 89 percent of the vehicle’s
road load is weight dependent,
compared to 38 percent on a steadystate 55 mph duty cycle.298 The 2015
NHTSA Technology Study found that
weight reduction provides a greater fuel
efficiency benefit for vehicles driving
under transient conditions than for
those operating under constant speeds.
In simulation, the study found that the
two Class 6 trucks improved fuel
efficiency by over two percent on the
ARB transient cycle by removing 1,100
lbs. Further, SwRI observed that the
improvements due to weight reduction
behaved linearly.299 The proposed
menu of components available for a
vocational vehicle weight credit in GEM
is presented in Section V.E and in the
draft RIA Chapter 2.9. It includes fewer
options than for tractors, but the
agencies believe there are a number of
feasible material substitution choices at
the chassis level, which could add up to
weight savings on the order of a few
hundred lbs. The agencies project that
refuse trucks, construction vehicles, and
weight-limited regional delivery
vehicles could reasonably apply
material substitution for weight
reduction. We do not expect this to be
broadly applicable across many types of
298 Helms
2003 as referenced in TIAX 2009.
2015 NHTSA Technology Study, Note
289, T–270 Delivery Truck Vehicle Technology
Results and Vehicle Performance in the F–650
Truck.
299 See
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vocational vehicles. Based on the
assumed payload in GEM, and
depending on the vocational vehicle
subcategory, the agencies believe a
reduction of 200 lbs may offer a fuel
efficiency improvement of
approximately 1 to 2 percent.
Without more specific data on which
to base our assumptions, the agencies
are proposing to allocate 50 percent of
any mass reduction to increased
payload, and 50 percent to reduce the
chassis weight. We considered the data
on which the tractor weight allocation
(1/3:2/3) is based, but determined this
would not be valid for vocational
vehicles, as the underlying data
pertained only to long haul tractortrailers. The agencies propose that 50
percent of weight removed from
vocational vehicle chassis would be
added back as additional payload in
GEM. This suggests an equal likelihood
that a vehicle would be reducing weight
for benefits of being lighter, or reducing
weight to carry more payload. The
agencies welcome data that could better
inform the fraction of weight reduced
for vocational vehicles that is added
back as payload.
The agencies request comment on
whether the HD Phase 2 program should
recognize that weight reduction of
rotating components provides an
enhanced fuel efficiency benefit over
weight reduction on static components.
In theory, as components such as brake
rotors, brake drums, wheels, tires,
crankshafts, camshafts, and piston
assemblies become lighter, the power
consumption to rotate the masses would
be directly proportional to the mass
decrease. Using physical properties of a
rotating component such as a wheel, it
is relatively straightforward to calculate
an equivalent mass. However, we do not
have enough information to derive
industry average values for equivalent
mass, nor have we evaluated the best
way for GEM to account for this.
(vi) HFC Refrigerant From Cabin Air
Conditioning (A/C) Systems
Manufacturers can reduce direct A/C
leakage emissions by utilizing leak-tight
components. EPA’s proposed HFC
direct emission leakage standard would
be independent of the CO2 vehicle
standard. Manufacturers could choose
components from a menu of leakreducing technologies sufficient to
comply with the standard, as opposed to
using a test to measure performance. See
76 FR 57194.
In Phase 1, EPA adopted a HFC
leakage standard to assure that highquality, low-leakage components are
used in each air conditioning system
installed in HD pickup trucks, vans, and
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40301
combination tractors (see 40 CFR
1037.115). We did not adopt a HFC
leakage standard in Phase 1 for systems
installed in vocational vehicles. EPA is
proposing in Phase 2 to extend the HFC
leakage standard that exists due to
Phase 1 requirements to all vocational
vehicles. Beginning in the 2021 model
year, EPA proposes that vocational
vehicle air conditioning systems with a
refrigerant capacity of greater than 733
grams meet a leakage rate of 1.50
percent leakage per year and systems
with a refrigerant capacity of 733 grams
or lower meet a leakage standard of 11.0
grams per year. EPA believes this
proposed approach of having a leak rate
standard for lower capacity systems and
a percent leakage per year standard for
higher capacity systems would result in
reduced refrigerant emissions from all
air conditioning systems, while still
allowing manufacturers the ability to
produce low-leak, lower capacity
systems in vehicles which require them.
EPA believes that reducing A/C
system leakage is both highly costeffective and technologically feasible.
The availability of low leakage
components is being driven by the air
conditioning program in the light-duty
GHG rule which began in the 2012
model year and the HD Phase 1 rule that
began in the 2014 model year. The
cooperative industry and government
Improved Mobile Air Conditioning
program has demonstrated that newvehicle leakage emissions can be
reduced by 50 percent by reducing the
number and improving the quality of
the components, fittings, seals, and
hoses of the A/C system.300 All of these
technologies are already in commercial
use and exist on some of today’s
systems, and EPA does not anticipate
any significant improvements in sealing
technologies for model years beyond
2021. However, EPA has recognized
some manufacturers utilize an improved
manufacturing process for air
conditioning systems, where a helium
leak test is performed on 100 percent of
all o-ring fittings and connections after
final assembly. By leak testing each
fitting, the manufacturer or supplier is
verifying the o-ring is not damaged
during assembly (which is the primary
source of leakage from o-ring fittings),
and when calculating the yearly leak
rate for a system, EPA will allow a
relative emission value equivalent to a
‘seal washer’ can be used in place of the
value normally used for an o-ring fitting,
when 100 percent helium leak testing is
performed on those fittings. The
agencies request comment on other
300 Team 1-Refrigerant Leakage Reduction: Final
Report to Sponsors, SAE, 2007.
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possible improvements in the design of
air conditioning systems that EPA could
recognize for the purposes of
compliance with this proposed
standard. For example, should the
agency recognize electrified
compressors as having a zero leak rate,
and should we allow vehicles fitted
with electrified compressors to use a
simplified version of the compliance
reporting form? Please see Section I.F.1
(b) of this preamble for a description of
proposed program-wide revisions to
EPA’s HFC leakage standards that
would address air conditioning systems
designed for alternative refrigerants.
The HFC control costs presented in
the draft RIA Chapter 2.9 and 2.12 are
applied to all heavy-duty vocational
vehicles. EPA views these costs as
minimal and the reductions of potent
GHGs to be easily feasible and
reasonable in the lead times provided by
the proposed rules.
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(b) Engine Technologies Considered in
Vehicle Standard-Setting
Section II explains the technical basis
for the agencies’ proposed separate
engine standards. The agencies are not
proposing to predicate the vocational
vehicle standards on different diesel
engine technology packages than those
presumed for compliance with the
separate diesel engine standards.
However, for the proposed MY 2027
vocational vehicle standards, the
agencies are predicating the SI-powered
vocational vehicle standards on a
gasoline engine technology package that
includes additional friction reduction
beyond that presumed for compliance
with the MY 2016 gasoline engine
standard. Chapter 2 of the draft RIA
provides more details on each of the
technologies that can be applied to both
gasoline and diesel engines.
The vehicle-level standards would
vary depending on whether the engines
powering those vehicles are
compression-ignition or sparkignition.301 In Phase 1, this was not the
case because GEM used a default engine
that was the same for every vehicle
configuration, regardless of the actual
engine being installed. As described
above in Section II, the Phase 2 vehicle
certification tool, GEM, would require
manufacturers to enter specific engine
performance data, where emissions and
fuel consumption profiles would differ
301 Specifically, EPA is proposing CO , N O, and
2
2
CH4 emission standards for new heavy-duty engines
over an EPA specified useful life period (See
Section II).
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significantly depending on the engine’s
architecture.302
As explained in Section II.A.2,
engines would continue to be certified
over the FTP test cycle. The FTP test
cycle that is applicable for bare
vocational engines is very different than
the proposed test cycles for vocational
vehicles in GEM. The FTP is a very
demanding transient cycle that exercises
the engine over its full range of
capabilities. In contrast, the cycles
evaluated by GEM measure emissions
over more frequently used engine
operating ranges. The ARB Transient
vehicle cycle represents city driving,
and the highway cruise cycles measure
engine operation that is closer to steady
state. Each of these cycles is described
in the draft RIA Chapter 3. A
consequence of recognizing engine
performance at the vehicle level would
be that further engine improvements
(i.e. improvements measureable by duty
cycles that more precisely represent
driving patterns for specific
subcategories of vocational vehicles)
could be evaluated as possible
components of a technical basis for a
vocational vehicle standard.303 For this
reason, the agencies considered whether
any different engine technologies
should be included in the feasibility
analysis for the vehicle standards (and
potentially, in the proposed standard
stringency).
One CI engine technology that might
be recognized over a vehicle highway
cruise cycle would be waste heat
recovery (WHR). However, the agencies
do not consider this to be a feasible
technology for vocational engines. As
described in Section II of this preamble
and Chapter 2.3 of the draft RIA, there
currently are no commercially available
WHR systems for diesel engines,
although most engine manufacturers are
exploring this technology. While it
would be possible to capture excess heat
from a vocational engine operating at
highway speeds, many vocational
vehicles spend insufficient time at
highway speeds to generate enough
excess heat to make this technology
worthwhile. As explained in Section
II.D, the agencies are projecting a very
small adoption rate of WHR even in the
tractor engine market. Because the
research is currently being conducted to
apply this technology for tractors, it is
logical that future research may reveal
ways to adapt this technology for those
302 See Section II.D.5 for an explanation of which
engine architecture would need to meet which
standard.
303 As noted in II.B.2 above, manufacturers also
have greater flexibility to meet a vehicle standard
if engine improvements can be evaluated as part of
compliance testing.
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vocational engines that are intended for
on-highway applications. The agencies
do not believe this technology will be
developed to the point of commercial
readiness for vocational vehicles in the
time frame of these proposed rules.
The agencies assessed three SI engine
technologies for possible inclusion in
the vocational vehicle technology
packages: cylinder deactivation, variable
valve timing, and advanced friction
reduction. These might be recognized
over the proposed vocational vehicle
test cycles in GEM through use of the
proposed engine mapping procedures.
To the extent either cylinder
deactivation or variable valve timing
would be adopted for complete heavyduty pickups and vans, they would be
recognized over the complete chassis
test specified for that segment and
possibly over the GEM highway cruise
cycles, however the aggressive bare
engine FTP test is unlikely to put the
engine into operating modes that
activate either of those technologies.
Based on stakeholder input, the
agencies project that the SI engines
certified over the FTP and fitted into
vocational vehicles would most likely
be designed as overhead valve engines,
for which the only kind of VVT
available is dual cam phasing.304 Dual
cam phasing is already included at 100
percent adoption rate in the feasibility
and stringency of the MY 2016 bare
engine standard. If manufacturers
choose to fit vocational vehicles with
coaxial camshaft SI engines, additional
VVT options would be feasible and
could be recognized over the vocational
vehicle test cycles. Based on stakeholder
input, the agencies project that some SI
engines certified over the FTP and fitted
into vocational vehicles may be
designed with cylinder deactivation by
MY 2021. However, the agencies do not
have enough information at this time to
quantify the potential fuel efficiency
improvements over the vocational
vehicle test cycles for engines with
cylinder deactivation or various designs
implementing VVT. Therefore we are
not proposing to predicate the SIpowered vocational vehicle standards
on use of these technologies.
In Section II.D, the agencies explain
why we are not proposing a more
stringent separate SI vocational engine
standard in Phase 2 based on additional
engine technologies beyond those
assumed for the Phase 1 MY 2016
standard. The agencies are instead
proposing to include adoption and
performance of advanced engine friction
reduction technology as a basis for the
304 See preamble Section VI.C.5.(a) under
Coupled Cam Phasing.
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proposed SI-powered vocational vehicle
standards. Based on Volpe model results
presented in preamble Section VI, the
agencies project that manufacturers of
some SI engines for complete HD
pickups would apply advanced friction
reduction. Level 2 engine friction
reduction is listed in Table VI–3, and
costs are presented in the draft RIA
Chapter 2.12. We expect some engines
with this technology would be enginecertified and sold for use in vocational
vehicles. We are projecting an overall
effectiveness of 0.6 percent
improvement over the GEM cycles for
this technology, calculated using a pervehicle effectiveness of 1.1 percent and
a vocational vehicle adoption rate of 56
percent. We request comment on the
merits of setting a SI-based vocational
vehicle standard predicated on adoption
of SI engine technologies.
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(c) Technologies the Agencies Assessed
but Did Not Use in Standard-Setting
(i) Aerodynamics
The Argonne National lab work shows
that aerodynamics has less of an impact
on vocational vehicle energy losses than
do engines or tires.305 Further, when a
vehicle spends significant time at
slower speeds, the disbenefit of the
added weight of the aero devices
diminishes the benefit obtained when
driving at high speeds. In addition, the
aerodynamic performance of a complete
vehicle is significantly influenced by
the body of the vehicle. As noted above,
the agencies are not proposing to
regulate body builders for the reasons
discussed in Phase 1.
The NAS 2010 report estimated a one
percent fuel efficiency improvement
could be achieved from a full
aerodynamic package on a box truck
with an average speed of 30 mph.306
Both from the NAS 2010 report and
from experiences of EPA’s SmartWay
team, the agencies expect the potential
benefits of aerodynamics at an average
speed of 60 mph would be diminished
by 50 percent or more when average
speeds are closer to 40 mph. The
proposed Regional composite duty cycle
in GEM for vocational vehicles (the test
cycle with the most highway weighting)
has a weighted average speed of 39
mph.
The 2015 NHTDA Technology Study
simulated a Class 6 box truck with a
coefficient of aerodynamic drag that had
been improved by 15 percent. Over
transient test cycles, this produced a
one percent fuel efficiency benefit,
305 See Argonne National Laboratory 2009 report,
Note 275, above.
306 See Table 5–10 of the NAS 2010 report, Note
136.
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though this produced results of
approximately seven percent
improvement over the 55 mph and eight
percent over the 65 mph cycle. SwRI
conducted coastdown testing to
determine the baseline CDA of the truck,
of 5.0.307 However, it is unknown what
aerodynamic technologies could be
applied to yield a 15 percent
improvement in CDA. Using these
simulation results and the proposed
Regional cycle weightings of 22 percent
at 65 mph and 28 percent at 55 mph, the
agencies estimate the fuel efficiency
benefit of improving the CdA of a Class
6 box truck by 15 percent could be
approximately four percent. This
assumes no penalty for carrying the
weight of the aerodynamic devices
while operating under transient driving
conditions.
Because we do not have information
on specific technologies that could be
applied to vocational vehicles to yield a
15 percent improvement in CdA, or
their costs, we are not basing any of the
proposed standards for vocational
vehicles on aerodynamic improvements.
Nonetheless, we are working with CARB
to incorporate into GEM some data from
testing that is being conducted by CARB
through NREL. A test plan is underway
to assess the fuel efficiency benefit of
three different devices to improve the
aerodynamic performance of a Class 6
box truck and one device on a Class 4
box truck. The agencies request
comment on allowing a manufacturer to
obtain an improved GEM result by
certifying that a final vehicle
configuration will closely match one of
the configurations on which this testing
was conducted, where the improvement
would be based on installation of
specific aerodynamic devices for which
we have pre-defined effectiveness
through this testing program. The
amount of improvement would be set by
EPA and NHTSA based on NREL’s test
results. This credit provision would
apply only to vocational vehicles
certified over the Regional duty cycle.
Manufacturers wishing to receive credit
for other aerodynamic technologies or
on other vehicle configurations would
be able to seek credit for it as an offcycle technology. See Section V.E, for a
description of regulatory flexibilities
such as off-cycle technology credits.
A description of vehicles and
aerodynamic technologies that could be
eligible for this option, as well as a
description of the testing conducted to
obtain the assigned GEM improvements
due to these technologies, can be found
307 See 2015 NHTSA Technology Study, Note
289, Appendix C.
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in a memorandum to the docket.308 The
agencies seek comment on this potential
approach to providing credits for
aerodynamic aids to vocational box
trucks.
(ii) Full Electric Trucks
Some heavy-duty vehicles can be
powered exclusively by electric motors.
Electric motors are efficient and able to
produce high torque, giving e-trucks
strong driving characteristics,
particularly in stop-and-go or urban
driving situations, and are well-suited
for moving heavy loads. Electric motors
also offer the ability to operate with very
low noise, an advantage in certain
applications. Currently, e-trucks have
some disadvantages over conventional
vehicles, primarily in cost, weight and
range. Components are relatively
expensive, and storing electricity using
currently available technology is
expensive, bulky, and heavy.
The West Coast Collaborative, a
public-private partnership, has
estimated the incremental costs for
electric Class 3–6 trucks in the Los
Angeles, CA, area.309 Compared to a
conventional diesel, the WCC estimates
a BEV system would cost between
$70,000 and $90,000 more than a
conventional diesel system. The
CalHEAT Technology Roadmap
includes an estimate that the
incremental cost for a fully-electric
medium- or heavy- duty vehicle would
be between $50,000 and $100,000. This
roadmap report also presents several
actions that must be taken by
manufacturers and others, before heavyduty e-trucks can reach what they call
Stage 3 Deployment.310
Early adopters of electric drivetrain
technology are medium-heavy-duty
vocational vehicles that are not weightlimited and have drive cycles where
they don’t need to go far from a central
garage. Examples include Frito-Lay.
CalHEAT has published results of a
comprehensive performance evaluation
of three battery electric truck models
using information and data from in-use
data collection, on road testing and
chassis dynamometer testing.311
308 See May 2015 memorandum to the docket
titled Vocational Vehicle Aerodynamic Testing
Program.
309 See https://westcoastcollaborative.org/files/
sector-fleets/WCC-LA-BEVBusinessCase2011-0815.pdf.
310 Silver, Fred, and Brotherton, Tom. (CalHEAT)
Research and Market Transformation Roadmap to
2020 for Medium- and Heavy-Duty Trucks.
California Energy Commission, June 2013.
311 Gallo, Jean-Baptiste, and Jasna Tomic
(CalHEAT). 2013. Battery Electric Parcel Delivery
Truck Testing and Demonstration. California Energy
Commission.
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Given the high costs and the
developing nature of this technology,
the agencies do not project fully electric
vocational vehicles to be widely
commercially available in the time
frame of the proposed rules. For this
reason, the agencies have not based the
proposed Phase 2 standards on adoption
of full-electric vocational vehicles. To
the extent this technology is able to be
brought to market in the time frame of
the Phase 2 program, there is currently
a certification path for these chassis
from Phase 1, as described in Section
V.E and in EPA’s regulations at 40 CFR
1037.150 and NHTSA’s regulations at 49
CFR 535.8.
(iii) Electrified Accessories
Accessories that are traditionally gearor belt-driven by a vehicle’s engine can
be optimized and/or converted to
electric power. Examples include the
engine water pump, oil pump, fuel
injection pump, air compressor, powersteering pump, cooling fans, and the
vehicle’s air-conditioning system.
Optimization and improved pressure
regulation may significantly reduce the
parasitic load of the water, air and fuel
pumps. Electrification may result in a
reduction in power demand, because
electrically-powered accessories (such
as the air compressor or power steering)
operate only when needed if they are
electrically powered, but they impose a
parasitic demand all the time if they are
engine-driven. In other cases, such as
cooling fans or an engine’s water pump,
electric power allows the accessory to
run at speeds independent of engine
speed, which can reduce power
consumption. Electrification of
accessories can individually improve
fuel consumption, regardless of whether
the drivetrain is a strong hybrid. The
TIAX study used 2 to 4 percent fuel
consumption improvement for
accessory electrification, with the
understanding that electrification of
accessories will have more effect in
short haul/urban applications and less
benefit in line-haul applications.312
Electric power steering (EPS) or
Electrohydraulic power steering (EHPS)
provides a potential reduction in CO2
emissions and fuel consumption over
hydraulic power steering because of
reduced overall accessory loads. This
eliminates the parasitic losses
associated with belt-driven power
steering pumps which consistently draw
load from the engine to pump hydraulic
fluid through the steering actuation
systems even when the wheels are not
being turned. EPS is an enabler for all
vehicle hybridization technologies since
312 TIAX
2009, Note 137, pp. 3–5.
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it provides power steering when the
engine is off. EPS is feasible for most
vehicles with a standard 12V system.
Some heavier vehicles may require a
higher voltage system which may add
cost and complexity.
The agencies are projecting that some
electrified accessories will be necessary
as part of the development of stop-start
idle reduction systems for vocational
vehicles. However, the agencies have
not developed a pre-defined creditgenerating option for manufacturers to
directly receive credit in GEM for
electrified accessories on vocational
vehicles. Manufacturers wishing to
conduct independent testing may apply
for off-cycle credits derived from
electrified accessories.
(iv) E–PTO
There are products available today
that can provide auxiliary power,
usually electric, to a vehicle that needs
to work in PTO mode for an extended
time, to avoid idling the main engine.
There are different designs of electrified
PTO systems on the market today. Some
designs have auxiliary power sources,
typically batteries, with sufficient
energy storage to power an onboard tool
or device for a short period of time, and
are intended to be recharged during the
workday by operating the main engine,
either while driving between work sites,
or by idling the engine until a sufficient
state of charge is reached that the engine
may shut off. Other designs have
sufficient energy storage to power an
onboard tool or device for many hours,
and are intended to be recharged as a
plug-in hybrid at a home garage. The
agencies are proposing to continue the
hybrid-PTO test option that was
available in Phase 1, with a few
revisions. See the proposed regulations
at 40 CFR 1037.540. The current test
procedure is a charge-sustaining
procedure, meaning the test is not
complete until the energy storage
system is depleted and brought back to
its original state of charge. The agencies
request comment and data relating to
the population and energy storage
capacity of plug-in e-PTO systems, for
which a charge-depleting test cycle may
be more appropriate. For the reasons
described above in Section V.C.1.a.iv,
the agencies are not basing the proposed
vocational vehicle standards on use of
electrified PTO or hybrid PTO
technology. Manufacturers wishing to
conduct testing as specified may apply
for off-cycle credits derived from e-PTO
or hybrid PTO technologies.
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(2) Projected Vehicle Technology
Package Effectiveness and Cost
(a) Baseline Vocational Engine and
Vehicle Performance
The proposed baseline vocational
vehicle configurations for each of the
nine proposed regulatory subcategories
are described in draft RIA Chapter 2.9
and Chapter 4.4. The agencies propose
to set the baseline rolling resistance
coefficient for the 2017 vocational
vehicle fleet at 7.7 kg/metric ton, which
assumes 100 percent of tires meet the
Phase 1 standard.
In the agencies’ proposed baseline
configurations, we include torque
converter automatics with five forward
gears in eight of the nine subcategories.
In the Regional HHD subcategory, the
baseline includes a manual transmission
with ten forward gears. No additional
vehicle-level efficiency-improving
technology is included in the baseline
vehicles, nor in the agencies’ analyses
for the no-action reference case.
Specifically, we have assumed zero
adoption rates for other types of
transmissions, increased numbers of
gears, idle reduction, and technologies
other than Phase 1 compliant LRR tires
in both the nominally flat baseline and
the dynamic baseline reference cases.
Technology adoption rates for
Alternative 1a (nominally flat baseline)
can be found in the draft RIA Chapter
2.12. Chapter 2.12.8 presents the
adoption rates for tires on vocational
vehicles with different levels of rolling
resistance, including the 100 percent
adoption rate of tires with Level 1 CRR
in the reference case and in model years
preceding Phase 2. In this manner, we
have defined a reference vocational
vehicle fleet that meets the Phase 1
standards and includes reasonable
representations of vocational vehicle
technology and configurations. Details
of the vehicle configurations, including
reasons why they are reasonably
included as baseline technologies, are
discussed in the draft RIA Chapter 2.9.
The agencies note that the baseline
performance derived for the proposed
rules varies between regulatory
subcategories—as noted above, this is
the reason the agencies are proposing
the further subcategories. The range of
performance at baseline is due to the
range of attributes and modeling
parameters, such as transmission
characteristics, final drive ratio, and
vehicle weight, which were selected to
represent a range of performance across
this diverse segment. The agencies
request comment on whether the
proposed configurations adequately
represent a reasonable range of
vocational chassis configurations likely
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to be manufactured in the
implementation years of the Phase 2
program. We especially are interested in
comments regarding the following
driveline parameters: Transmission gear
ratios, axle ratios, and tire radii.
The baseline engine fuel consumption
represents improvements beyond
currently available engines to achieve
the efficiency of what the agencies
believe would be a 2017 model year
diesel engine, as described in the draft
RIA Chapter 2. Using the values for
compression-ignition engines, the
baseline performance of vocational
vehicles is shown in Table V–11.
Different types of diesel engines are
used in vocational vehicles, depending
on the application. They fall into the
categories of Light, Medium, and Heavy
Heavy-duty Diesel engines. The Light
Heavy-duty Diesel engines typically
range between 4.7 and 6.7 liters
displacement. The Medium Heavy-duty
Diesel engines typically have some
overlap in displacement with the Light
Heavy-duty Diesel engines and range
between 6.7 and 9.3 liters. The Heavy
Heavy-duty Diesel engines typically are
represented by engines between 10.8
and 16 liters. Because of these
differences, the GEM simulation of
baseline vocational CI engines includes
four engines—one for LHD, one for
MHD, and two for HHD. Detailed
descriptions can be seen in Chapter 4 of
the draft RIA. These four engine models
have been employed in setting the
vocational vehicle baselines, as
described in the draft RIA Chapter 2.9.
TABLE V–11—BASELINE VOCATIONAL VEHICLE PERFORMANCE WITH CI ENGINES
Light
heavy-duty
class 2b–5
Duty cycle
Medium
heavy-duty
class 6–7
Heavy
heavy-duty
class 8
Baseline Emissions Performance in CO2 gram/ton-mile
Urban ...........................................................................................................................................
Multi-Purpose ...............................................................................................................................
Regional .......................................................................................................................................
316
325
339
201
203
199
212
214
203
19.7446
19.9411
19.5481
20.8251
21.0216
19.9411
Baseline Fuel Efficiency Performance in gallon per 1,000 ton-mile
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Multi-Purpose ...............................................................................................................................
Regional .......................................................................................................................................
The agencies intend to develop a
model in GEM of a MY 2016-compliant
gasoline engine, but we have been
unable to obtain sufficient information
to complete this process. The agencies
request comments on the process for
mapping gasoline engines for simulation
purposes, as well as information about
the power rating and displacement that
should be considered as a baseline SI
engine for vocational vehicle standardsetting purposes. In lieu of a SI engine
map, the agencies have applied a
correction factor to the GEM CI
vocational simulation results, to
approximate the baseline performance
of a SI-powered vocational vehicle. The
SI-powered vocational vehicle baseline
performance shown in Table V–12 was
calculated from applying an adjustment
factor to the respective CI-powered
vocational vehicle baseline values. This
CI to SI baseline adjustment factor is
derived from the Phase 1 HD pickup
and van stringency curves, as described
in the draft RIA Chapter 2.9.1. The
correction factor approach is not the
agencies’ preferred approach, as it has
31.0413
31.9253
33.3006
many drawbacks. One key drawback
with this approach is that it does not
account for the fact that SI engines
operate very differently than CI engines
at idle. Our current model includes
information on CI engine idle
performance, and assumes
transmissions and torque converters
appropriate for CI engines. We expect
these driveline parameters would be
very different for SI powered vehicles,
which would affect performance over all
the GEM duty cycles.
The baseline performance levels for
HHD vocational vehicles powered by SI
engines were derived using the same
procedures described above for the
MHD and LHD vehicles, adjusting the
performance of the HHD CI powered
vocational vehicles by the same degree
as for the other vehicles. However, we
expect that any gasoline Class 8
vocational vehicle would be powered by
a MHD SI engine, as there are no HHD
gasoline engines on the market. Further,
we expect that if we were to develop an
engine map for use in simulating
heavier SI vocational vehicles in GEM,
we could establish a more
representative baseline performance
level by calculating the work done by
the MHD engine to move the heavier
vehicle over the test cycles. The
agencies request comments on the
merits of developing separate baseline
levels and numerical standards for HHD
vocational vehicles powered by SI
engines, including any benefits that
could be obtained by addressing this
unlikely occurrence and other ways in
which the agencies could avoid the
instance of an orphaned SI vocational
vehicle. Commenters who favor separate
numerical standards are encouraged to
submit information related to
appropriate default vehicle
characteristics such as weight and
payload. Depending on comments, the
agencies could choose to require all
Class 8 vocational vehicles to certify to
the standards for CI powered HHD
vocational vehicles, or we could require
SI powered Class 8 vocational vehicles
to certify to the MHD standards for SI
vocational vehicles.
TABLE V–12—BASELINE VOCATIONAL VEHICLE PERFORMANCE WITH SI ENGINES
Light heavy-duty
Class 2b–5
Duty cycle
Medium heavy-duty
Class 6–7
Heavy heavy-duty
Class 8
Baseline Emissions Performance in CO2 gram/ton-mile
Urban .............................................................................................................
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TABLE V–12—BASELINE VOCATIONAL VEHICLE PERFORMANCE WITH SI ENGINES—Continued
Light heavy-duty
Class 2b–5
Duty cycle
Multi-Purpose .................................................................................................
Regional .........................................................................................................
Medium heavy-duty
Class 6–7
344
358
Heavy heavy-duty
Class 8
215
211
226
214
23.9676
24.1926
23.7425
25.2054
25.4304
24.0801
Baseline Fuel Efficiency Performance in gallon per 1,000 ton-mile
Urban .............................................................................................................
Multi-Purpose .................................................................................................
Regional .........................................................................................................
(b) Technology Packages for Derivation
of Proposed Standards
Prior to developing the numerical
values for the proposed standards, the
agencies projected the mix of new
technologies and technology
improvements that would be feasible
within the proposed lead time. We note
that for some technologies, the adoption
rates and effectiveness may be very
similar across subcategories. However,
for other technologies, either the
adoption rate, effectiveness, or both
differ across subcategories. The
standards being proposed reflect the
technology projected for each service
class. Where a technology performs
differently over different test cycles,
these differences are reflected to some
extent in the derivation of the
stringency of the proposed standard.
However, the proposed standard
stringency does reflect, to some extent,
the ability of manufacturers to utilize
credits. For example, we project that
hybrid vehicles would generally be
certified in the Urban subcategory and
would generate emission credits that
would most likely be used in the other
37.5830
38.7082
40.2836
subcategories within the weight class
group.313
As part of the derivation of the
numerical standards, we performed a
benchmarking analysis to inform our
development of standards that would
have roughly equivalent stringency
among the duty-cycle-based
subcategories within each weight class
group. To do this, the agencies assessed
the performance of broadly applicable
technologies, such as low rolling
resistance tires, on each of the selected
baseline vehicles over each of the duty
cycles. We then evaluated how much
improvement could be achieved over
the various duty cycles for a vehicle that
incorporated all the broadly applicable
technologies, but which did not include
a hybrid powertrain. We simulated
neutral idle for benchmarked vehicles
for MY 2021 and MY 2024, and
simulated stop-start idle reduction on
the benchmarked MY 2027 vehicles.
From this, we learned that a vehicle
with neutral idle and a deeply
integrated conventional powertrain,
with moderately low rolling resistance
tires and some weight reduction could
easily meet the proposed standards in
the early implementation years of the
program, in any weight class or duty
cycle. We also learned how the
effectiveness of tire rolling resistance
and weight reduction vary in GEM (i.e.
and therefore likely in actual operation)
across the different subcategories. We
also found that a vehicle with a deeply
integrated conventional powertrain,
tires with even lower CRR, some weight
reduction, and stop-start idle reduction
could achieve the MY 2027 proposed
standards. However, our technology
feasibility does not presume that 100
percent of vocational vehicles can
reasonably apply deep powertrain
integration, nor do we project 100
percent adoption of LRR tires or weight
reduction.
The technologies assumed for the
benchmarked vehicles are summarized
in Table V–13, Table V–14, and Table
V–15. Note that the agencies are not
projecting that these are the vehicles
that would actually be produced.
Rather, these theoretical vehicles are
being evaluated to compare the relative
stringency of the standards for each
subcategory.
TABLE V–13—GEM INPUTS FOR BENCHMARKED MY 2021 VOCATIONAL VEHICLES
Class 2b–5
Urban
Multi-purpose
Class 6–7
Regional
Urban
Multi-purpose
Class 8
Regional
Urban
Multi-purpose
Regional
Transmission
100% Deep Transmission Integration for 7% Urban, 6% Multipurpose, 5% Regional
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5s AT
313 See
5s AT
5s AT
5s AT
5s AT
5s AT
5s AT
averaging sets at 40 CFR 1037.740.
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40307
TABLE V–13—GEM INPUTS FOR BENCHMARKED MY 2021 VOCATIONAL VEHICLES—Continued
Class 2b–5
Urban
Multi-purpose
Class 6–7
Regional
Urban
Multi-purpose
Class 8
Regional
Urban
Multi-purpose
Regional
CI Engine a
2021 MY 7L, 200 hp Engine
2021 MY 7L, 270 hp Engine
2021 MY 11L, 345 hp Engine
2021 MY 15L
455hp Engine
100% Idle Reduction = Neutral Idle
100% improved axle lubrication: 0.5%
100% Steer Tires with CRR 6.9 kg/metric ton
100% Drive Tires with CRR 7.3 kg/metric ton
Weight Reduction 200 lb
Note:
a SI engines were not simulated in GEM.
TABLE V–14—GEM INPUTS FOR BENCHMARKED MY 2024 VOCATIONAL VEHICLES
Class 2b–5
Urban
Multi-purpose
Class 6–7
Regional
Urban
Multi-purpose
Class 8
Regional
Urban
Multi-purpose
Regional
Transmission
100% Deep Transmission Integration for 7% Urban, 6% Multipurpose, 5% Regional
5s AT
5s AT
5s AT
5s AT
5s AT
5s AT
5s AT
5s AT
10s AMT
CI Engine a
2024 MY 7L, 200 hp Engine
2024 MY 7L, 270 hp Engine
2024 MY 11L, 345 hp Engine
2024 MY 15L
455hp Engine
100% Idle Reduction = Neutral Idle
100% improved axle lubrication: 0.5%
100% Steer Tires with CRR 6.7 kg/metric ton
100% Drive Tires with CRR 7.1 kg/metric ton
Weight Reduction 200 lb
Note:
a SI engines were not simulated in GEM.
TABLE V–15—GEM INPUTS FOR BENCHMARKED MY 2027 VOCATIONAL VEHICLES
Class 2b–5
Urban
Multi-purpose
Class 6–7
Regional
Urban
Multi-purpose
Class 8
Regional
Urban
Multi-purpose
Regional
Transmission
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TABLE V–15—GEM INPUTS FOR BENCHMARKED MY 2027 VOCATIONAL VEHICLES—Continued
Class 2b–5
Urban
Multi-purpose
Class 6–7
Regional
Urban
Multi-purpose
Class 8
Regional
Urban
Multi-purpose
Regional
CI Engine a
2027 MY 7L, 200 hp Engine
2027 MY 7L, 270 hp Engine
2027 MY 11L, 345 hp Engine
2027 MY 15L
455hp Engine
100% Idle Reduction = Stop-Start
100% Steer Tires with CRR 6.4 kg/metric ton
100% Drive Tires with CRR 7.0 kg/metric ton
Weight Reduction 200 lb
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Note:
a SI engines were not simulated in GEM.
Next we identified the best
performing baseline vehicle in each
weight class group (one for HHD, one
for MHD and one for LHD) and
normalized the baseline GEM results to
the performance of that vehicle. A
complete description of this
normalization process is found in the
draft RIA Chapter 2. We then applied
our actual projected technology
adoption rates, including hybrid
powertrains and stop-start idle
reduction, to normalized-benchmarked
vehicles in each of the nine
subcategories. The proposed standards
then were calculated by multiplying the
normalized baseline vehicle GEM result
by an average percent improvement for
each weight class group. For example,
the GEM results from applying the
projected technology mix for MY 2021
MHD CI vocational vehicles were a 5
percent improvement in the Regional
MHD subcategory, 7 percent
improvement in the MHD Multipurpose
subcategory, and 8 percent
improvement in the MHD Urban
subcategory. To achieve standards with
equivalent stringency, we multiplied
each normalized baseline vehicle’s GEM
performance by the numerical average
of those simulated improvements, 6.6
percent. Without comparable stringency
across the subcategories, manufacturers
could have an incentive to select a
subcategory strategically to have a less
stringent standard, rather than to certify
vehicles in the subcategory that best
matches the vehicles’ expected use
patterns. By setting the standards at the
same percent reduction from each
weight class group of normalizedbenchmarked vehicles, we would expect
to minimize any incentive for a
manufacturer to certify a vocational
vehicle in an inappropriate subcategory.
We request comment on using this
approach to normalize the standards.
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Commenters are encouraged to address
both the approach in general and the
specific technology assumed for the
benchmark vehicles.
We are aware that in this approach,
some of the projected technology
packages would not provide a direct
path to compliance for manufacturers,
such as in the example above of the
MHD Regional vehicle. Using the
technologies adopted at projected rates,
it would fall short of the standard by 1.5
percent. The agencies believe that the
Phase 2 program has enough regulatory
flexibility (averaging, banking, and
trading provisions in particular) to
enable such a vehicle to be certified.
In the package descriptions that
follow, individual technology costs are
not presented, rather these can be found
in the draft RIA Chapter 2.9 and 2.12.
Section V. C. (2) (d) includes the costs
estimated for packages of technologies
the agencies project would enable
vocational vehicles to meet the
proposed Phase 2 standards.
(i) Transmission Packages
The agencies project that 30 percent
of vocational vehicles would have one
or more of the transmission technologies
identified above in this section applied
by MY 2021, increasing to nearly 60
percent by MY 2024 and over 80 percent
by MY 2027. Most of this increase is due
to a projected increase in adoption of
technologies that represent deep
driveline integration. The agencies
project an adoption rate of 15 percent in
MY 2021 and 30 percent in MY 2024 for
manufacturers using the powertrain test
to be recognized for non-hardware
upgrades such as gear efficiencies, shift
strategies, and torque converter lockups,
as well as other technologies that enable
driveline optimization. Due to the
relatively high efficiency gains available
from driveline optimization for
relatively low costs, the agencies are
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projecting a 70 percent application rate
of driveline optimization by MY 2027
across all subcategories. We do not have
information about the extent to which
integration may be deterred by barriers
to information-sharing between
component suppliers. Therefore we are
projecting that major manufacturers
would work to overcome these barriers,
integrate and optimize their drivelines,
and use the powertrain test on all
eligible configurations, while smaller
manufacturers may not adopt these
technologies at all, or not to a degree
that they would find value in this
optional test procedure.
For the technology of adding two
gears, we are predicating the proposed
MY 2021 standard on a five percent
adoption rate, except zero in the HHD
Regional subcategory, which is modeled
with a 10-speed transmission. This
adoption rate is projected to essentially
remain at this level throughout the
program, with an increase to ten percent
only for two subcategories (Regional
LHD and MHD) in MY 2027. This is
because the manufacturers most likely
to develop 8-speed transmissions are
those that are also developing
transmissions for HD pickups and vans,
and the GEM-certified vocational market
share among those manufacturers is
relatively small.
The HHD Regional subcategory is the
only one where we assume a manual
transmission in the baseline
configuration. For these vehicles, the
agencies project upgrades to electronic
transmissions such as either AMT, DCT,
or automatic, at collective adoption
rates of 51 percent in MY 2021, 68
percent in MY 2024, and five percent in
MY 2027. The decrease in MY 2027
reflects a projection that a greater
number of deeply integrated HHD
powertrains would be used by MY 2027
(one consequence being that fewer HHD
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powertrains would be directly
simulated in GEM in that year). The
larger numbers in the phase-in years
reflect powertrains that have been
automated or electrified but not deeply
integrated. The agencies have been
careful to account for the cost of both
electrifying and deeply integrating the
MY 2027 powertrains. In draft RIA
Chapter 11, the technology adoption
rates for the HHD Regional subcategory
presented in Table 11–42, Table 11–45,
and Table 11–48 account for the
assumption that a manual transmission
cannot be deeply integrated, so there
must also be an automation upgrade.
These tables are inputs to the agencies’
cost analysis, thus the costs of both
upgrading and integrating HHD
powertrains are included. The adoption
rates of the upgraded but not integrated
transmission architectures represent a
projection of three percent of all
vocational vehicles in MY 2021 and four
percent in MY 2024. This is based on an
estimate that seven percent of the
vocational vehicles would be in the
HHD Regional subcategory. For more
information about the assumptions that
were made about the populations of
vehicles in different subcategories, see
the agencies’ inventory estimates in
draft RIA Chapter 5.
In the eight subcategories in which
automatic transmissions are the base
technology, the agencies project that
five percent would upgrade to a dual
clutch transmission in MY 2021. This
projection increases to 15 percent in MY
2024 and decreases in MY 2027 to ten
percent for two subcategories (Regional
LHD and MHD) and five percent for the
remaining 6 subcategories. The low
projected adoption rates of DCT reflect
the fact that this is a relatively new
technology for the heavy-duty sector,
and it is likely that broader market
acceptance would be achieved once
fleets have gained experience with the
technology. Similar to the pattern
described for the HHD Regional
subcategory, the decrease in MY 2027
reflects a projection of greater use of
deeply integrated powertrains.
In setting the proposed standard
stringency, we have projected that
hybrids on vehicles certified in the
Multipurpose subcategories would
achieve on average 22 percent
improvement, and those in the Urban
subcategories would see a 25 percent
improvement. We have also projected
zero hybrid adoption rate by vehicles in
the Regional subcategories, expecting
that the benefit of hybrids for those
vehicles would be too low to merit use
of that type of technology. However,
there is no fixed hybrid value assigned
in GEM and the actual improvement
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over the applicable test cycle would be
determined by powertrain testing. By
the full implementation year of MY
2027, the agencies are projecting an
overall vocational vehicle adoption rate
of ten percent hybrids, which we
estimate would be 18 percent of
vehicles certified in the Multi-Purpose
and Urban subcategories. We are
projecting a low adoption rate in the
early years of the Phase 2 program, just
four percent in these subcategories in
MY 2021, and seven percent in MY
2024 for vehicles certified in the MultiPurpose and Urban subcategories. Based
on our assumptions about the
populations of vehicles in different
subcategories, these hybrid adoption
rates are about two percent overall in
MY 2021 and four percent overall in MY
2024.
Considering the combination of the
above technologies and adoption rates,
we project the CO2 and fuel efficiency
improvements for all transmission
upgrades to be approximately seven
percent on a fleet basis by MY 2027.
One subcategory in which we are
projecting a very large advanced
transmission adoption rate is the HHD
Regional subcategory, in which we are
projecting 75 percent of the
transmissions would be either
automated or automatic (upgraded from
a manual) with 70 percent of those also
being deeply integrated by MY 2027. By
comparison, the agencies are projecting
that HHD day cab tractors would have
90 percent adoption of automated or
automatic transmissions by MY 2027.
Although we are not prepared to predict
what fraction of these would be
upgraded in the absence of Phase 2, the
draft RIA Chapter 2.9 explains why the
agencies are confident that durable
transmissions will be widely available
in the Phase 2 time frame to support
manufacture of HHD vocational
vehicles.
If the above technologies do not reach
the expected level of market adoption,
the vocational vehicle Phase 2 program
has several other technology options
that manufacturers could choose to meet
the proposed standards.
(ii) Axle Packages
The agencies project that 75 percent
of vocational vehicles in all
subcategories would adopt advanced
axle lubricant formulations in all
implementation years of the Phase 2
program. Fuel efficient lubricant
formulations are widespread across the
heavy-duty market, though advanced
synthetic formulations are currently less
popular.314 Axle lubricants with
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on conversations with axle suppliers.
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improved viscosity and efficiencyenhancing performance are projected to
be widely adopted by manufacturers in
the time frame of Phase 2. Such
formulations are commercially available
and the agencies see no reason why they
could not be feasible for most vehicles.
Nonetheless, we have refrained from
projecting full adoption of this
technology. The agencies do not have
specific information regarding reasons
why axle manufacturers may specify a
specific type of lubricant over another,
and whether advanced lubricant
formulations may not be recommended
in all cases. The agencies request
comment on information regarding any
vocational vehicle applications for
which use of advanced lubricants would
not be feasible.
The agencies estimate that 45 percent
of HHD Regional vocational vehicles
would adopt either full time or part time
6x2 axle technology in MY 2021. This
technology is most likely to be applied
to Class 8 vocational vehicles (with 2
rear axles) that are designed for frequent
highway trips. The agencies project a
slightly higher adoption rate of 60
percent combined for both full and part
time 6x2 axle technologies in MY 2024
and MY 2027. Based on our estimates of
vehicle populations, this is about four
percent of all vocational vehicles.
(iii) Tire Packages
The agencies estimate that the pervehicle average level of rolling
resistance from vocational vehicle tires
could be reduced by 11 percent by full
implementation of the Phase 2 program
in MY 2027, based on the tire
development achievements expected
over the next decade. This is estimated
by weighting the projected
improvements of steer tires and drive
tires using an assumed axle load
distribution of 30 percent on the steer
tires and 70 percent on the drive tires,
as explained in the draft RIA Chapter
2.9. The projected adoption rates and
expected improvements in CRR are
presented in Table V–16. By applying
the assumed axle load distribution, the
average vehicle CRR improvements
projected for the proposed MY 2021
standards would be four percent, which
we project would achieve up to one
percent reduction in fuel use and CO2
emissions, depending on the vehicle
subcategory. Using that same method,
the agencies estimate the average
vehicle CRR in MY 2024 would be
seven percent, yielding reductions in
fuel use and CO2 emissions of between
one and two percent, depending on the
vehicle subcategory.
The agencies understand that the
vocational vehicle segment has access to
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a large variety of tires, including some
that are designed for tractors, some that
are designed for HD pickups and vans,
and some with multiple use
designations. In spite of the likely
availability of LRR tires during the
Phase 2 program, the projected adoption
rates are intended to be conservative.
The agencies believe that these tire
packages recognize the variety of tire
purposes and performance levels in the
vocational vehicle market, and maintain
choices for manufacturers to use the
most efficient tires (i.e. those with least
rolling resistance) only where it makes
sense given these vehicles’ differing
purposes and applications.
TABLE V–16—PROJECTED LRR TIRE ADOPTION RATES
Tire position
Drive
Steer
Drive
Steer
Drive
Steer
Drive
Steer
Drive
Steer
.....................................
.....................................
.....................................
.....................................
.....................................
.....................................
.....................................
.....................................
.....................................
.....................................
Baseline CRR (7.7) .............................................................
Baseline CRR (7.7) .............................................................
5% Lower CRR (7.3) ..........................................................
10% Lower CRR (6.9) ........................................................
10% Lower CRR (6.9) ........................................................
15% Lower CRR (6.5) ........................................................
15% Lower CRR (6.5) ........................................................
20% Lower CRR (6.2) ........................................................
Average Improvement in CRR ...........................................
Average Improvement in CRR ...........................................
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For comparison purposes, the reader
may note that these levels of tire CRR
generally correspond with levels of tire
CRR projected for tractors built for the
Phase 1 standards. For example, the
baseline level CRR for vocational tires is
very similar to the baseline tractor steer
tire CRR. Vocational vehicle tires with
10 percent better CRR have a similar
CRR level as tractor tires of Drive Level
1. Vocational vehicle tires with 15
percent better CRR have a similar CRR
level as tractor tires of Steer Level 1.
Vocational vehicle tires with 20 percent
better CRR have a similar CRR level as
tractor tires of Drive Level 2, as
described in Section III.D.2.
(iv) Idle Reduction Packages
In this proposal, we are projecting a
progression of idle reduction technology
development that begins with 70
percent adoption rate of neutral idle for
the MY 2021 standards, which by MY
2027 is replaced by a 70 percent
adoption rate of stop-start idle reduction
technology. Although it is possible that
a vehicle could have both neutral idle
and stop-start, we are only considering
emissions reductions for vehicles with
one or the other of these technologies.
Also, as the program phases in, we do
not see a reduction in the projected
adoption rate of neutral idle to be a
concern in terms of stranded
investment, because it is a very low cost
technology that could be an enabler for
stop-start systems in some cases.
We are not projecting any adoption of
neutral idle for the HHD Regional
subcategory, because any vehicle with a
manual transmission must shift to
neutral when stopped to avoid stalling
the engine, so that vehicles in the HHD
Regional subcategory would already
essentially be idling in neutral and no
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MY 2021
adoption rate
Level of rolling resistance
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additional technology would be needed
to achieve this. A similar case can be
made for any vocational vehicle with an
automated manual transmission, since
these share inherently similar
architectures with manuals. The
agencies are not projecting an adoption
rate of 85 percent neutral idle until MY
2024, because it may take some
additional development time to apply
this technology to high-torque automatic
transmissions designed for the largest
vocational vehicles. Based on
stakeholder input, the designs needed to
avoid an uncomfortable re-engagement
bump when returning to drive from
neutral may require some engineering
development time as well as some work
to enable two-way communication
between engines and transmissions.
We are projecting a five percent
adoption rate of stop-start in the six
MHD and LHD subcategories for MY
2021 and zero for the HHD vehicles,
because this technology is still
developing for vocational vehicles and
is most likely to be feasible in the early
years of Phase 2 for vehicles with lower
power demands and lower engine
inertia. Stopping a heavy-duty engine is
not challenging. The real challenge is
designing a robust system that can
deliver multiple smooth restarts daily
without loss of function while the
engine is off. Many current light-duty
products offer this feature, and some
heavy-duty manufacturers are exploring
this.315 The agencies are projecting an
315 See Ford announcement December 2013,
https://media.ford.com/content/fordmedia/fna/us/
en/news/2013/12/12/70-percent-of-ford-lineup-tohave-auto-start-stop-by-2017—fuel-.html. See also
Allison-Cummins announcement July 2014, https://
www.oemoffhighway.com/press_release/12000208/
allison-stop-start?utm_
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50
20
50
80
0
0
0
0
3%
8%
MY 2024
adoption rate
MY 2027
adoption rate
20
10
50
30
30
60
0
0
6%
12%
10
0
25
20
50
30
15
50
9%
17%
adoption rate of 15 percent stop-start
across all subcategories in the
intermediate year of MY 2024. The
agencies are projecting this technology
to have a relatively high adoption rate
(70 percent as stated above) by MY 2027
because we see it being technically
feasible on the majority of vocational
vehicles, and especially effective on
those with the most time at idle in their
workday operation. Although we are not
prepared to predict what fraction of
vehicles would adopt stop-start in the
absence of Phase 2, the draft RIA
Chapter 2.9 explains why the agencies
are confident that this technology,
which is on the entry-level side of the
hybrid and electrification spectrum, will
be widely available in the Phase 2 time
frame.
Based on these projected adoption
rates and the effectiveness values
described above in this section, we
expect overall GHG and fuel
consumption reductions from workday
idle on vocational vehicles to be
approximately three percent in MY
2027.
(v) Weight Reduction Packages
As described in the draft RIA Chapter
2.12, weight reduction is a relatively
costly technology, at approximately $3
to $4 per pound for a 200-lb package.
Even so, for vehicles in service classes
where dense, heavy loads are frequently
carried, weight reduction can translate
directly to additional payload. The
agencies project weight reduction would
most likely be used for vocational
vehicles in the refuse and construction
service classes, as well as some regional
delivery vehicles. The agencies are
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predicating the proposed standards on
an adoption rate of five to eight percent,
depending on the subcategory, in MY
2027, with slightly lower adoption rates
in MY 2021 and MY 2024.
For this technology package, NHTSA
and EPA project manufacturers would
use material substitution in the amount
of 200 lbs. An example of how this
weight could be reduced would be a
complete set of aluminum wheels for a
Class 8 vocational vehicle, or an
aluminum transmission case plus high
strength steel wheels, frame rails, and
suspension brackets on a MHD or LHD
vocational vehicle. The agencies have
limited information about how popular
the use of aluminum components is in
the vocational vehicle sector. We
request comments with information on
whether any lightweight vocational
vehicle components are in such
widespread use that we should exclude
them from the list of components for
which a GEM improvement value would
be available.
(c) GEM Inputs for Derivation of
Proposed Vocational Vehicle Standards
To derive the stringency of the
proposed vocational vehicle standards,
the agencies developed a suite of fuel
consumption maps for use with the
GEM: One set of maps that represent
engines meeting the proposed MY 2021
vocational diesel engine standards, a
second set of maps representing engines
meeting the proposed MY 2024
vocational diesel engine standards, and
a third set of maps representing engines
meeting the proposed MY 2027
vocational diesel engine standards.316
By incorporating the engine technology
packages projected to be adopted to
meet the proposed Phase 2 vocational CI
engine standards, the agencies
employed GEM engine models in
deriving the stringency of the proposed
Phase 2 CI-powered vocational vehicle
standards. As noted above, because the
agencies did not have enough
information to develop a robust GEMbased gasoline engine fuel map, the
stringency of the proposed SI-powered
vocational vehicle standards is derived
as an adjustment from the CI-powered
vocational vehicle standards. See the
draft RIA Chapter 2.9 for more details
about this adjustment process.
Depending on the particular
technology, either the effectiveness was
assigned by the agencies using an
accepted average value, or the GEM tool
was used to assess the proposed
technology effectiveness, as discussed
above. The agencies derived a scenario
vehicle for each subcategory using the
adoption rate and assigned or modeled
improvement values of transmission,
axle, and idle reduction technologies.
For example, the MY 2021 CRR values
for each subcategory scenario case were
derived as follows: For steer tires—20
percent times 7.7 plus 80 percent times
6.9 yields an average CRR of 7.1 kg/
metric ton; and for drive tires—50
percent times 7.7 plus 50 percent times
7.3 yields an average CRR of 7.5 kg/
metric ton. Similar calculations were
done for weight reduction, transmission
improvements, and axle improvements.
The set of tire CRR, idle reduction,
weight reduction, engine and
transmission input parameters that was
modeled in GEM in support of the
proposed MY 2021 vocational vehicle
standards is shown in Table V–17. The
agencies derived the level of the
proposed MY 2024 standards by using
the tire, weight reduction, engine and
transmission GEM inputs shown in
Table V–18, below. The agencies
derived the level of the proposed MY
2027 standards by using the tire, weight
reduction, engine and transmission
GEM inputs shown in Table V–19,
below. As post-processing, the
respective adoption rates and assigned
improvement values of transmission,
axle, and idle reduction technologies
were calculated for each subcategory.
The agencies have not directly
transferred the GEM results from these
inputs as the proposed standards.
Rather, the proposed standards are the
result of the normalizing and
benchmarking analysis described above.
The proposed standards are presented
in Table V–4 through Table V–9.
Additional detail is provided in the RIA
Chapter 2.9.
TABLE V–17—GEM INPUTS USED TO DERIVE PROPOSED MY 2021 VOCATIONAL VEHICLE STANDARDS
Class 2b–5
Urban
Multi-purpose
Class 6–7
Regional
Urban
Multi-purpose
Class 8
Regional
Urban
Multi-purpose
Regional
CI Engine a
2021 MY 7L, 200 hp Engine
200 hp Engine
2021 MY 7L,
270 hp Engine
2021 MY 11L,
345 hp Engine
2021 MY 15L
455hp Engine
Transmission (improvement factor)
0.023
0.021
0.008
0.023
0.021
0.009
0.023
0.022
0.022
0.004
0.004
0.004
0.012
5%
0%
0%
0%
70%
70%
70%
0%
7.1
7.1
7.1
Axle (improvement factor)
0.004
0.004
0.004
0.004
0.004
Stop-Start (adoption rate)
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5%
5%
5%
5%
5%
Neutral Idle (adoption rate)
70%
70%
70%
70%
70%
Steer Tires (CRR kg/metric ton)
7.1
7.1
7.1
7.1
7.1
7.1
316 See Section II.D.2 of this preamble for the
derivation of the engine standards.
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TABLE V–17—GEM INPUTS USED TO DERIVE PROPOSED MY 2021 VOCATIONAL VEHICLE STANDARDS—Continued
Class 2b–5
Urban
Multi-purpose
Class 6–7
Regional
Urban
Class 8
Multi-purpose
Regional
Urban
Multi-purpose
Regional
7.5
7.5
7.5
7.5
12
8
8
10
Drive Tires (CRR kg/metric ton)
7.5
7.5
7.5
7.5
7.5
Weight Reduction (lb)
8
8
14
8
8
Note:
a SI engines were not simulated in GEM, rather a gas/diesel adjustment factor was applied to the results.
TABLE V–18—GEM INPUTS USED TO DERIVE PROPOSED MY 2024 VOCATIONAL VEHICLE STANDARDS
Class 2b–5
Urban
Multi-purpose
Class 6–7
Regional
Urban
Class 8
Multi-purpose
Regional
Urban
Multi-purpose
Regional
CI Enginea
2024 MY 7L,
270 hp Engine
2024 MY 11L,
345 hp Engine
2024 MY 15L,
455hp Engine
2024 MY 15L
455hp Engine
Transmission (improvement factor)
0.045
0.04
0.017
0.045
0.041
0.018
0.045
0.042
0.035
0.004
0.004
0.004
0.014
15%
15%
15%
15%
85%
85%
0%
6.8
6.8
6.8
7.3
7.3
7.3
7.3
12
8
8
10
Axle (improvement factor)
0.004
0.004
0.004
0.004
0.004
Stop-Start (adoption rate)
15%
15%
15%
15%
15%
Neutral Idle (adoption rate)
85%
85%
85%
85%
85%
85%
Steer Tires (CRR kg/metric ton)
6.8
6.8
6.8
6.8
6.8
6.8
Drive Tires (CRR kg/metric ton)
7.3
7.3
7.3
7.3
7.3
Weight Reduction (lb)
8
8
14
8
8
Note:
a SI engines were not simulated in GEM, rather a gas/diesel adjustment factor was applied to the results.
TABLE V–19—GEM INPUTS USED TO DERIVE PROPOSED MY 2027 VOCATIONAL VEHICLE STANDARDS
Class 2b–5
Urban
Multi-purpose
Class 6–7
Regional
Urban
Multi-purpose
Class 8
Regional
Urban
Multi-purpose
Regional
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CI Engine a
2027 MY 7L,
200 hp Engine
2027 MY 7L,
270 hp Engine
2027 MY 11L,
345 hp Engine
2027 MY 15L
455hp Engine
Transmission (improvement factor)
0.096
0.085
0.034
0.096
0.088
0.037
0.097
0.089
0.036
0.004
0.004
0.014
Axle (improvement factor)
0.004
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40313
TABLE V–19—GEM INPUTS USED TO DERIVE PROPOSED MY 2027 VOCATIONAL VEHICLE STANDARDS—Continued
Class 2b–5
Urban
Class 6–7
Multi-purpose
Regional
Urban
Class 8
Multi-purpose
Regional
Urban
Multi-purpose
Regional
70%
70%
70%
30%
30%
0%
6.4
6.4
6.4
7.0
7.0
7.0
7.0
14
10
10
12
Stop-Start (adoption rate)
75%
70%
70%
75%
70%
70%
Neutral Idle (adoption rate)
25%
30%
30%
25%
30%
30%
Steer Tires (CRR kg/metric ton)
6.4
6.4
6.4
6.4
6.4
6.4
Drive Tires (CRR kg/metric ton)
7.0
7.0
7.0
7.0
7.0
Weight Reduction (lb)
10
10
16
10
10
Note:
a SI engines were not simulated in GEM, rather a gas/diesel adjustment factor was applied to the results.
(d) Technology Package Costs
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The agencies have estimated the costs
of the technologies that could be used
to comply with the proposed standards.
The estimated costs are shown in Table
V–20 for MY2021, in Table V–21 for
MY2024, and Table V–22 for MY 2027.
Fleet average costs are shown for light,
medium and heavy HD vocational
vehicles in each duty-cycle-based
subcategory—Urban, Multi-Purpose,
and Regional. As shown in Table V–20,
in MY 2021 these range from
approximately $600 for MHD and LHD
Regional vehicles, up to $3,400 for HHD
Regional vehicles. Those two lower-cost
packages reflect zero hybrids, and the
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higher-cost package reflects significant
adoption of automated transmissions. In
the draft RIA Chapter 2.13.2, the
agencies present vocational vehicle
technology package costs differentiated
by MOVES vehicle type. For example,
intercity buses are estimated to have an
average package cost of $2,900 and
gasoline motor homes are estimated to
have an average package cost of $450 in
MY 2021. These costs do not indicate
the per-vehicle cost that may be
incurred for any individual technology.
For more specific information about the
agencies’ estimates of per-vehicle costs,
please see the draft RIA Chapter 2.12.
For example, Chapter 2.12.7 describes
why a complex technology such as
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hybridization is estimated to range
between $15,000 and $40,000 per
vehicle for vocational vehicles in MY
2021. The engine costs listed represent
the cost of an average package of diesel
engine technologies as set out in Section
II. Individual technology adoption rates
for engine packages are described in
Section II.D. The details behind all these
costs are presented in draft RIA Chapter
2.12, including the markups and
learning effects applied and how the
costs shown here are weighted to
generate an overall cost for the
vocational segment. We welcome
comments on our technology cost
assessments.
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1,125
$293
7
81
99
27
49
547
22
Urban
1,125
$293
7
81
99
27
49
547
22
598
$293
7
81
99
48
49
0
22
1,418
$270
7
81
99
27
51
861
22
1,418
$270
7
81
99
27
51
861
22
Multipurpose
Regional
Multipurpose
571
$270
7
81
99
41
51
0
22
Regional
1,998
$270
7
81
148
27
6
1,437
22
Urban
1,998
$270
7
81
148
27
6
1,437
22
Multipurpose
Heavy HD
3,404
$270
7
2,852
219
34
0
0
22
Regional
Notes:
a Costs shown are for the 2021 model year and are incremental to the costs of a vehicle meeting the Phase 1 standards. These costs include indirect costs via markups along with learning impacts. For a description of the markups and learning impacts considered in this analysis and how it impacts technology costs for other years, refer to Chapter 2 of the draft RIA (see
draft RIA 2.12).
bNote that values in this table include adoption rates. Therefore, the technology costs shown reflect the average cost expected for each of the indicated vehicle classes. To see the actual
estimated technology costs exclusive of adoption rates, refer to Chapter 2 of the draft RIA (see RIA 2.9 in particular).
c Engine costs are for a light HD, medium HD or heavy HD diesel engine. We are projecting no additional costs beyond Phase 1 for gasoline vocational engines.
d EPA’s air conditioning standards are presented in Section V.C above.
Total ..........................................................................
Engine c ............................................................................
Tires .................................................................................
Transmission ...................................................................
Axle related ......................................................................
Weight Reduction ............................................................
Idle reduction ...................................................................
Electrification & hybridization ..........................................
Air Conditioning d .............................................................
Urban
Medium HD
Light HD
[2012$]
TABLE V–20—VOCATIONAL VEHICLE TECHNOLOGY INCREMENTAL COSTS FOR THE PROPOSAL IN THE 2021 MODEL YEARA B
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The estimated fleet average vocational
vehicle package costs are shown in
Table V–21 for MY 2024. As shown,
these range from approximately $800 for
MHD and LHD Regional vehicles, up to
$4,800 for HHD Regional vehicles. The
increased costs above the MY 2021
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values reflect increased adoption rates
of individual technologies, while the
individual technology costs are
generally expected to remain the same
or decrease, as explained in the draft
RIA Chapter 2.12. For example, Chapter
2.12.7 presents MY 2024 hybridization
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costs that range from $13,000 to $33,000
per vehicle for vocational vehicles. The
engine costs listed represent the average
costs associated with the proposed MY
2024 vocational diesel engine standard
described in Section II.D.
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1,737
$437
17
123
90
24
119
906
20
Urban
1,737
$437
17
123
90
24
119
906
20
849
$437
17
123
90
43
119
0
20
2,228
$405
17
123
90
24
125
1,423
20
2,228
$405
17
123
90
24
125
1,423
20
Multipurpose
Regional
Multipurpose
817
$405
17
123
90
37
125
0
20
Regional
3,332
$405
23
123
136
24
224
2,377
20
Urban
3,332
$405
23
123
136
24
224
2,377
20
Multipurpose
Heavy HD
4,834
$405
23
3,915
224
30
217
0
20
Regional
Notes:
a Costs shown are for the 2024 model year and are incremental to the costs of a vehicle meeting the Phase 1 standards. These costs include indirect costs via markups along with learning impacts. For a description of the markups and learning impacts considered in this analysis and how it impacts technology costs for other years, refer to Chapter 2 of the draft RIA (see
draft RIA 2.12).
bNote that values in this table include adoption rates. Therefore, the technology costs shown reflect the average cost expected for each of the indicated vehicle classes. To see the actual
estimated technology costs exclusive of adoption rates, refer to Chapter 2 of the draft RIA (see RIA 2.9 in particular).
c Engine costs are for a light HD, medium HD or heavy HD diesel engine. We are projecting no additional costs beyond Phase 1 for gasoline vocational engines.
d EPA’s air conditioning standards are presented in Section V.C above.
Total ..........................................................................
Engine c ............................................................................
Tires .................................................................................
Transmission ...................................................................
Axle related ......................................................................
Weight Reduction ............................................................
Idle reduction ...................................................................
Electrification & hybridization ..........................................
Air Conditioning d .............................................................
Urban
Medium HD
Light HD
[2012$]
TABLE V–21—VOCATIONAL VEHICLE TECHNOLOGY INCREMENTAL COSTS FOR THE PROPOSAL IN THE 2024 MODEL YEARa b
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The estimated fleet average vocational
vehicle package costs are shown in
Table V–22 for MY 2027. As shown,
these range from approximately $1,400
for MHD and LHD Regional vehicles, up
to $7,400 for HHD Urban and
Multipurpose vehicles. These two
subcategories are projected to have the
higher-cost packages in MY 2027 due to
an estimated 18 percent adoption of
HHD hybrids, which are estimated to
cost $31,000 per vehicle in MY 2027, as
shown in Chapter 2.12.7 of the draft
RIA. These per-vehicle technology
package costs were averaged using our
projections of vehicle populations in the
nine regulatory subcategories and do not
correspond to the MOVES vehicle types.
The engine costs shown represent the
average costs associated with the
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proposed MY 2027 vocational diesel
engine standard described in Section
II.D. For gasoline vocational vehicles,
the agencies are projecting adoption of
Level 2 engine friction reduction with
an estimated $68 added to the average
SI vocational vehicle package cost in
MY 2027, which represents about 56
percent of those vehicles upgrading
beyond Level 1 engine friction
reduction. Further details on how these
SI vocational vehicle costs were
estimated are provided in the draft RIA
Chapter 2.9.
Purchase prices of vocational vehicles
can range from $60,000 for a stake-bed
landscape truck to over $400,000 for
some transit buses. The costs of the
vocational vehicle standards can be put
into perspective by considering package
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costs estimated using MOVES vehicle
types along with typical prices for those
vehicles. For example, a package cost of
$4,000 on a $60,000 short haul straight
truck would represent an incremental
increase of about six percent of the
vehicle purchase price. Similarly, a
package cost of $7,000 on a $200,000
refuse truck would represent an
incremental increase of less than four
percent of the vehicle purchase price.
The vocational vehicle industry
characterization report in the docket
includes additional examples of vehicle
prices for a variety of vocational
applications.317
317 See industry characterization, Note 260,
above.
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3,489
$471
20
244
86
29
498
2,122
19
Urban
3,490
$471
20
244
86
29
499
2,122
19
1,407
$471
20
267
86
46
499
0
19
4,696
$437
20
244
86
29
526
3,336
19
4,696
$437
20
244
86
29
526
3,336
19
Multipurpose
Regional
Multipurpose
1,395
$437
20
267
86
40
526
0
19
Regional
7,422
$437
29
244
129
29
964
5,571
19
Urban
7,422
$437
29
244
129
29
964
5,571
19
Multipurpose
Heavy HD
b
4,682
$437
29
2,986
215
35
962
0
19
Regional
Notes:
a Costs shown are for the 2024 model year and are incremental to the costs of a vehicle meeting the Phase 1 standards. These costs include indirect costs via markups along with learning impacts. For a description of the markups and learning impacts considered in this analysis and how it impacts technology costs for other years, refer to Chapter 2 of the draft RIA (see
draft RIA 2.12).
b Note that values in this table include adoption rates. Therefore, the technology costs shown reflect the average cost expected for each of the indicated vehicle classes. To see the actual
estimated technology costs exclusive of adoption rates, refer to Chapter 2 of the draft RIA (see RIA 2.9 in particular).
c Engine costs are for a light HD, medium HD or heavy HD diesel engine. We are projecting no additional costs beyond Phase 1 for gasoline vocational engines.
d EPA’s air conditioning standards are presented in Section V.C above.
Total ..........................................................................
Engine c ............................................................................
Tires .................................................................................
Transmission ...................................................................
Axle related ......................................................................
Weight Reduction ............................................................
Idle reduction ...................................................................
Electrification & hybridization ..........................................
Air Conditioning d .............................................................
Urban
Medium HD
Light HD
[2012$]
TABLE V–22—VOCATIONAL VEHICLE TECHNOLOGY INCREMENTAL COSTS FOR THE PROPOSAL IN THE 2027 MODEL YEARa
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(3) Consistency of the Proposed
Vocational Vehicle Standards With the
Agencies’ Legal Authority
NHTSA and EPA project the proposed
standards to be achievable within
known design cycles, and we believe
these standards, although technologyforcing, would allow many different
paths to compliance in addition to the
example outlined in this section. The
proposed standards are predicated on
manufacturers implementing
technologies that we expect will be
available in the time frame of these
proposed rules, although in some
instances these technologies are still
under development or not widely
deployed in the current vocational
vehicle fleet. Under the proposal,
manufacturers would need to apply a
range of technologies to their vocational
chassis, which the agencies believe
would be consistent with the agencies’
respective statutory authorities. We are
projecting that most vehicles could
adopt certain of the technologies. For
example, we project a 70 to 75 percent
application rate for stop-start idle
reduction and advanced axle
lubrication. However, for other
technologies, such as strong hybrids and
weight reduction, we are projecting
adoption rates of ten percent or less
overall, with individual subcategories
having adoption rates greater or less
than this. The proposed standards offer
manufacturers the flexibility to apply
the technologies that make sense for
their business and customer needs.
As discussed above, average pervehicle costs associated with the
proposed 2027 MY standards are
projected to be generally less than six
percent of the overall price of a new
vehicle. The cost-effectiveness of these
proposed vocational vehicle standards
in dollars per ton is similar to the cost
effectiveness estimated for light-duty
trucks in the 2017–2025 light duty
greenhouse gas standards, which the
agencies have found to be highly cost
effective.318 In addition, the vocational
vehicle standards are clearly effective
from a net benefits perspective (see draft
RIA Chapter 11.2). Therefore, the
agencies regard the cost of the proposed
standards as reasonable.
The agencies note that while the
projected costs are significantly greater
than the costs projected for Phase 1, we
still consider these costs to be
reasonable, especially given that the
first vehicle owner may see the
technologies pay for themselves in
many cases. As discussed above, the
usual period of ownership for a
vocational vehicle reflects a lengthy
trade cycle that may often exceed seven
years. For most vehicle types evaluated,
the cost of these technologies, if passed
on fully to customers, would be
recovered within five years or less due
to the associated fuel savings, as shown
in the payback analysis included in
Section IX and in the draft RIA Chapter
7.1. Specifically, in Table 7–30 of the
draft RIA Chapter 7.1.3, a summary is
presented with estimated payback
periods for each of the MOVES
vocational vehicle types, using the
annual vehicle miles traveled from the
MOVES model for each vehicle type. As
shown, the vocational vehicle type with
the shortest payback would be intercity
buses (less than one year), while most
other vehicles (with the exception of
school buses and motor homes) are
projected to see paybacks in the fifth
year or sooner.
The agencies note further that
although the proposal is technologyforcing (especially with respect to
driveline improvements) and the
estimated costs for each subcategory
vary considerably (by a factor of five in
some cases), these costs represent only
one of many possible pathways to
compliance for manufacturers.
Manufacturers retain leeway to develop
alternative compliance paths, increasing
the likelihood of the standards’
successful implementation. Based on
available information, the agencies
believe the proposed standards are
technically feasible within the lead time
provided, are cost effective while
40319
accounting for the fuel savings (see draft
RIA Chapter 7.1.4), and have no
apparent adverse collateral potential
impacts (e.g., there are no projected
negative impacts on safety or vehicle
utility).
The proposed standards thus appear
to represent a reasonable choice under
Section 202(a) of the CAA and the
maximum feasible under NHTSA’s EISA
authority at 49 U.S.C. 32902(k)(2). The
agencies believe that the proposed
standards are consistent with their
respective authorities. Based on the
information currently before the
agencies, we believe that the preferred
alternative would be maximum feasible
and reasonable for the vocational
segment with a progression of standards
reaching full implementation in MY
2027.
Nevertheless, as discussed in Section
I. A. (1) and in Section X (Alternatives),
the agencies seek comment on the
feasibility of Alternative 4, which the
agencies may determine is maximum
feasible and reasonable depending on
comments and information received
during the comment period. This
alternative is discussed in detail below
because it may be possible for
manufacturers to accelerate product
development cycles enough to reach the
required levels by the 2024 model year.
Thus, the agencies may conclude in the
final rules that Alternative 4, or some
elements of this alternative, would be
maximum feasible and appropriate
under CAA section 202 (a)(1) and (2),
depending on information and
comments received. The agencies seek
comments to assist us in making that
determination.
D. Alternative Vocational Vehicle
Standards Considered
The agencies have analyzed
vocational vehicle standards other than
the proposed standards. These
alternatives, listed in Table III–22, are
described in detail in Section X of this
preamble and the draft RIA Chapter 11.
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TABLE V–23—SUMMARY OF ALTERNATIVES CONSIDERED FOR THE PROPOSED RULEMAKING
Alternative
Alternative
Alternative
Alternative
Alternative
1
2
3
4
5
.............................................................................
.............................................................................
(Proposed Alternative) ........................................
.............................................................................
.............................................................................
No action alternative
Less stringent than the proposed alternative, applying off-the-shelf technologies
Proposed alternative fully phased-in by MY 2027
Same stringency as proposed alternative, except phasing in faster, by MY 2024
More stringent alternative, based on higher adoption rates of advanced technologies
NHTSA and EPA are considering an
Alternative 4 that achieves the same
level of stringency as the preferred
alternative, except it would provide less
318 See Chapter 5.3 of the final RIA for the MY
2017–2025 Light-Duty GHG Rule, available at
https://www.epa.gov/otaq/climate/documents/
420r12016.pdf.
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lead time, reaching its most stringent
level three years earlier than the
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preferred alternative, that is in MY
2024. The agencies project that the same
selection of technology options would
be available to manufacturers regardless
of what alternative is chosen. The
preferred alternative would allow
greater lead time to manufacturers to
select and develop technologies for their
vehicles.
The agencies have outstanding
questions regarding relative risks and
benefits of Alternative 4 due to the time
frame envisioned by that alternative. If
the agencies receive relevant
information supporting the feasibility of
Alternative 4, the agencies may consider
establishing vocational vehicle
standards that provide more overall
reductions than what we are proposing
if we deem them to be maximum
feasible and reasonable for NHTSA and
EPA, respectively. See the draft RIA
Chapter 11.2.2 for a summary of costs
and benefits that compares the proposed
Phase 2 vocational vehicle program with
the costs and benefits of other
vocational vehicle alternatives
considered.
In the paragraphs that follow, the
agencies present the derivation of the
Alternative 4 vocational vehicle
standards. For currently developing
technologies where we project an
adoption rate that could present
potential risks or challenges, we seek
comment on the cost and effectiveness
of such technology. Further, the
agencies seek comment on the potential
for adoption of developing technologies
into the vocational vehicle fleet, as well
as the extent to which the more
accelerated alternative vocational
vehicle standards may depend on such
technology.
(1) Adoption Rates for Derivation of
Alternative 4 Vocational Vehicle
Standards
In developing the Alternative 4
standards, the agencies are projecting a
set of technology packages in MY 2024
that is identical to those projected for
the final phase-in year of the preferred
alternative. Because these are the same
for each subcategory, the GEM inputs
modeled to derive the level of the MY
2024 Alternative 4 standards can be
found in Table V–19, which presents
the GEM inputs used to derive the level
of the MY 2027 proposed standards. In
the package descriptions below, the
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agencies outline technology-specific
adoption rates in MY 2021 for
Alternative 4 and offer insights on what
market conditions could enable
reaching adoption rates that would
achieve the full implementation levels
of stringency with less lead time.
For transmissions including hybrids,
the agencies project for Alternative 4
that 50 percent of vocational vehicles
would have one or more of the
transmission technologies identified
above in this section applied by MY
2021. This includes 25 percent deeply
integrated conventional transmissions
that would be recognized over the
powertrain test, 10 percent DCT, 11
percent adding two gears (except zero
for HHD Regional), and nine percent
hybrids for vehicles certified in the
Multi-Purpose and Urban subcategories,
which we estimate would be five
percent overall. In this alternative, the
agencies project 21 percent of the
vocational vehicles with manual
transmissions in the HHD Regional
subcategory would upgrade to either an
AMT, DCT, or automatic transmission.
The increased projection of driveline
integration would mean that more
manufacturers would need to overcome
data-sharing barriers. In this alternative,
we project that manufacturers would
need to conduct additional research and
development to achieve overall
application of five percent hybrids. In
the draft RIA Chapter 7.1, the agencies
have estimated costs for this additional
accelerated research. Comments are
requested on the expected costs to
accelerate hybrid development to meet
the projected adoption rates of this
alternative.
For advanced axle lubricants, the
agencies are projecting the same 75
percent adoption rate in MY 2021 as in
the proposed program. For part time or
full time 6x2 axles, the agencies project
the HHD Regional vocational vehicles
could apply this at the 60 percent
adoption rate in MY 2021, where this
level wouldn’t be reached until MY
2024 in the proposed program. One
action that could enable this to be
achieved is if information on the
reliability of these systems were to be
disseminated to more fleet owners by
trustworthy sources.
For lower rolling resistance tires in
this alternative, the agencies project the
same adoption rates of LRR tires as in
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the proposed program for MY 2021,
because we don’t expect tire suppliers
would be able to make greater
improvements for the models that are
fitted on vocational vehicles in that time
frame. The tire research that is being
conducted currently is focused on
models for tractors and trailers, and we
project further improved LRR tires
would not be commercially available for
vocational vehicles in the early
implementation years of Phase 2.
For the adoption rate of LRR tires in
MY 2024 to reach the level projected for
MY 2027 in the proposed program, tire
suppliers could promote their most
efficient products to vocational vehicle
manufacturers to achieve equivalent
improvements with less lead time.
Depending on how tire manufacturers
focus their research and product
development, it is possible that more of
the LRR tire advancements being
applied for tractors and trailers could be
applied to vocational vehicles. To see
the specific projected adoption rates of
different levels of LRR tires for
Alternative 4, see columns three and
five of Table V–16 above.
For workday idle technologies, the
agencies project an adoption rate of 12
percent stop-start in the six MHD and
LHD subcategories for MY 2021 and
zero for the HHD vehicles, on the
expectation that manufacturers would
have fewer challenges in the short term
in bringing this technology to market for
vehicles with lower power demands and
lower engine inertia. In this alternative,
the agencies project the overall workday
idle adoption rate would approach 100
percent, such that any vehicle without
stop-start (except HHD Regional) would
apply neutral idle in MY 2021. These
adoption raters consider a more
aggressive investment by manufacturers
in developing these technologies.
Estimates of research and development
costs for this alternative are presented in
the draft RIA Chapter 7.1.
For weight reduction, in this
alternative, the agencies project the
same adoption rates of a 200-lb
lightweighting package as in the
proposal for each subcategory in MY
2021, which is four to seven percent.
Table V–24 shows the GEM inputs used
to derive the level of the Alternative 4
MY 2021 standards.
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TABLE V—24—GEM INPUTS USED TO DERIVE ALTERNATIVE 4 MY 2021 VOCATIONAL VEHICLE STANDARDS
Class 2b–5
Class 6–7
Multipurpose
Urban
Regional
Multipurpose
Urban
Class 8
Multipurpose
Regional
2021 MY 11L, 345 hp
Engine
2021 MY
15L
455hp
Engine
Regional
Urban
Alternative 4 CI Engine a
2021 MY 7L, 200 hp Engine
2021 MY 7L, 270 hp Engine
Transmission (improvement factor)
0.045 ................................................................
0.04
0.014
0.045
0.041
0.015
0.045
0.041
0.018
0.004
0.004
0.004
0.004
0.015
12%
12%
0%
0%
0%
88%
88%
90%
90%
0%
7.1
7.1
7.1
7.1
7.5
7.5
7.5
7.5
7.5
8
12
8
8
10
Axle (improvement factor)
0.004 ................................................................
0.004
0.004
0.004
Stop-Start (adoption rate)
12% ..................................................................
12%
12%
12%
Neutral Idle (adoption rate)
88% ..................................................................
88%
88%
88%
Steer Tires (CRR kg/metric ton)
7.1 ....................................................................
7.1
7.1
7.1
7.1
Drive Tires (CRR kg/metric ton)
7.5 ....................................................................
7.5
7.5
7.5
Weight Reduction (lb)
8 .......................................................................
8
14
8
Note:
a SI engines were not simulated in GEM, rather a gas/diesel adjustment factor was applied to the results.
(2) Possible Alternative 4 Standards
Because the MY 2024 Alternative 4
standards are the same as the proposed
standards for MY 2027 for each
subcategory, these numerical standards
can be found in Table V–8 and Table V–
9, which present EPA’s and NHTSA’s
proposed MY 2027 standards,
respectively. Table V–25 and Table V–
26 present the Alternative 4 vocational
vehicle standards for the initial year of
MY 2021. These represent incremental
improvements over the MY 2017
baseline of six to seven percent for SIpowered vocational vehicles and nine
percent for CI-powered vocational
vehicles.
TABLE V–25—ALTERNATIVE 4 EPA CO2 STANDARDS FOR MY2021 CLASS 2b–8 VOCATIONAL VEHICLES
Light heavyduty
Class 2b–5
Duty cycle
Medium
heavy-duty
Class 6–7
Heavy
heavy-duty
Class 8
Alternative EPA Standard for Vehicle with CI Engine Effective MY2021 (gram CO2/ton-mile)
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Urban .......................................................................................................................................................
Multi-Purpose ...........................................................................................................................................
Regional ...................................................................................................................................................
288
297
309
183
185
181
193
196
185
199
201
197
210
212
201
Alternative EPA Standard for Vehicle with SI Engine Effective MY2021 (gram CO2/ton-mile)
Urban .......................................................................................................................................................
Multi-Purpose ...........................................................................................................................................
Regional ...................................................................................................................................................
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TABLE V–26—ALTERNATIVE 4 NHTSA FUEL CONSUMPTION STANDARDS FOR MY2021 CLASS 2b–8 VOCATIONAL
VEHICLES
Light heavy-duty
Class 2b–5
Duty cycle
Medium heavy-duty
Class 6–7
Heavy heavy-duty
Class 8
Alternative NHTSA Standard for Vehicle with CI Engine Effective MY 2021 (Fuel Consumption gallon per 1,000 ton-mile)
Urban .............................................................................................................
Multi-Purpose .................................................................................................
Regional .........................................................................................................
28.2908
29.1749
30.3536
17.9764
18.1729
17.7800
18.9587
19.2534
18.1729
Alternative NHTSA Standard for Vehicle with SI Engine Effective MY 2021 (Fuel Consumption gallon per 1,000 ton-mile)
Urban .............................................................................................................
Multi-Purpose .................................................................................................
Regional .........................................................................................................
(3) Costs Associated With Alternative 4
Standards
The agencies have estimated the costs
of the technologies expected to be used
to comply with the Alternative 4
standards, as shown in Table V–27 for
MY2021. Fleet average costs are shown
for light, medium and heavy HD
vocational vehicles in each duty-cyclebased subcategory—Urban, MultiPurpose, and Regional. As shown in
Table V–27, in MY 2021 these range
35.2200
36.3452
37.8080
from approximately $800 for MHD and
LHD Regional vehicles, to $4,300 for
HHD Urban and Multipurpose vehicles.
Those two subcategories are projected to
have the higher-cost packages in MY
2021 due to an estimated 9 percent
adoption of HHD hybrids, which are
estimated to cost $40,000 per vehicle in
MY 2021, as shown in Chapter 2.12.7 of
the draft RIA. For more specific
information about the agencies’
estimates of per-vehicle costs, please see
22.3923
22.6173
22.1672
23.6300
23.8551
22.6173
the draft RIA Chapter 2.12. The engine
costs listed represent the cost of an
average package of diesel engine
technologies with Alternative 4
adoption rates described in Section
II.D.2(e). The details behind all these
costs are presented in draft RIA Chapter
2.12, including the markups and
learning effects applied and how the
costs shown here are weighted to
generate an overall cost for the
vocational segment.
TABLE V–27—VOCATIONAL VEHICLE TECHNOLOGY INCREMENTAL COSTS FOR ALTERNATIVE 4 STANDARDS IN THE 2021
MODEL YEAR a b
(2012$)
Light HD
Urban
Multipurpose
Medium HD
Regional
Urban
Multipurpose
Heavy HD
Regional
Urban
Multipurpose
Regional
Engine c ........................................
Tires .............................................
Transmission ................................
Axle related ..................................
Weight Reduction .........................
Idle reduction ...............................
Electrification & hybridization .......
Air Conditioning d ..........................
$372
7
148
99
27
110
1,384
22
$372
7
148
99
27
110
1,384
22
$372
7
148
99
48
110
0
22
$345
7
148
99
27
116
2,175
22
$345
7
148
99
27
116
2,175
22
$345
7
148
99
41
116
0
22
$345
7
148
148
27
8
3,633
22
$345
7
148
148
27
8
3,633
22
$345
7
2,042
243
34
0
0
22
Total ......................................
2,169
2,169
805
2,938
2,938
777
4,337
4,337
2,693
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Notes:
a Costs shown are for the 2021 model year and are incremental to the costs of a vehicle meeting the Phase 1 standards. These costs include
indirect costs via markups along with learning impacts. For a description of the markups and learning impacts considered in this analysis and
how it impacts technology costs for other years, refer to Chapter 2 of the draft RIA (see draft RIA 2.12).
b Note that values in this table include adoption rates. Therefore, the technology costs shown reflect the average cost expected for each of the
indicated vehicle classes. To see the actual estimated technology costs exclusive of adoption rates, refer to Chapter 2 of the draft RIA (see RIA
2.9 in particular).
c Engine costs are for a light HD, medium HD or heavy HD diesel engine. We are projecting no additional costs beyond Phase 1 for gasoline
vocational engines.
d EPA’s air conditioning standards are presented in Section V.C above.
The estimated costs of the
technologies expected to be used to
comply with the Alternative 4 standards
for MY2024 are shown in Table V–28.
As shown, these range from
approximately $1,500 for MHD and LHD
Regional vehicles to $7,900 for HHD
Urban and Multipurpose vehicles.
These two subcategories are projected to
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have the higher-cost packages in MY
2024 due to an estimated 18 percent
adoption of HHD hybrids, which are
estimated to cost $33,000 per vehicle in
MY 2024, as shown in Chapter 2.12.7 of
the draft RIA. The engine costs listed
represent the cost of an average package
of diesel engine technologies with
Alternative 4 adoption rates described
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in Section II.D.2(e). For gasoline
vocational vehicles, the agencies are
projecting adoption of Level 2 engine
friction reduction with an estimated $74
added to the average SI vocational
vehicle package cost in MY 2024, which
represents about 56 percent of those
vehicles upgrading beyond Level 1
engine friction reduction. Further
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details on how these SI vocational
vehicle costs were estimated are
provided in the draft RIA Chapter 2.9.
TABLE V–28—VOCATIONAL VEHICLE TECHNOLOGY INCREMENTAL COSTS FOR ALTERNATIVE 4 STANDARDS IN THE 2024
MODEL YEAR a
(2012$)
Light HD
Urban
Multipurpose
Medium HD
Regional
Urban
Multipurpose
Heavy HD
Regional
Urban
Multipurpose
Regional
Engine c ........................................
Tires .............................................
Transmission ................................
Axle related ..................................
Weight Reduction .........................
Idle reduction ...............................
Electrification & hybridization .......
Air Conditioning d ..........................
$493
26
256
90
30
561
2,264
20
$493
26
256
90
30
524
2,264
20
$493
26
280
90
49
524
0
20
$457
26
256
90
30
592
3,559
20
$457
26
256
90
30
553
3,559
20
$457
26
280
90
43
553
0
20
$457
40
256
136
30
1,014
5,943
20
$457
40
256
136
30
1,014
5,943
20
$457
40
3,123
224
37
1,011
0
20
Total ......................................
3,741
3,704
1,482
5,030
4,992
1,469
7,895
7,895
4,912
Notes:
a Costs shown are for the 2024 model year and are incremental to the costs of a vehicle meeting the Phase 1 standards. These costs include
indirect costs via markups along with learning impacts. For a description of the markups and learning impacts considered in this analysis and
how it impacts technology costs for other years, refer to Chapter 2 of the draft RIA (see draft RIA 2.12).
b Note that values in this table include adoption rates. Therefore, the technology costs shown reflect the average cost expected for each of the
indicated vehicle classes. To see the actual estimated technology costs exclusive of adoption rates, refer to Chapter 2 of the draft RIA (see RIA
2.9 in particular).
c Engine costs shown are for a light HD, medium HD or heavy HD diesel engine. For gasoline-powered vocational vehicles we are projecting
$74 of additional engine-based costs beyond Phase 1.
d EPA’s air conditioning standards are presented in Section V.C above.
E. Compliance Provisions for Vocational
Vehicles
We welcome comment on all aspects
of the compliance program, including
those where we would adopt a
provision without change in Phase 2.
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(1) Application and Certification
Process
The agencies propose to continue to
use GEM to determine compliance with
the proposed vehicle fuel efficiency and
CO2 standards. Because the agencies are
proposing to modify GEM to recognize
inputs in addition to those recognized
under Phase 1, there is a consequent
proposed requirement that
manufacturers or component suppliers
conduct component testing to generate
those input values. See Section II for
details of engine testing and GEM inputs
for engines.
As described above in Section I, the
agencies propose to continue the Phase
1 compliance process in terms of the
manufacturer requirements prior to the
effective model year, during the model
year, and after the model year. The
information that would be required to
be submitted by manufacturers is set
forth in 40 CFR 1037.205, 49 CFR 537.6,
and 49 CFR 537.7. EPA would continue
to issue certificates upon approval based
on information submitted through the
VERIFY database (see 40 CFR 1037.255).
End of year reports would continue to
include the GEM results for all of the
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configurations built, along with credit/
deficit balances, if applicable (see 40
CFR 1037.250 and 1037.730).
(a) GEM Inputs
In Phase 1, there were two inputs to
GEM for vocational vehicles:
• Steer tire coefficient of rolling
resistance, and
• Drive tire coefficient of rolling
resistance
As discussed above in Section II and
III.D, there are several additional inputs
that are proposed for Phase 2. In
addition to the steer and drive tire CRR,
the proposed inputs include the
following:
• Engine fuel map,
• Engine full-load torque curve,
• Engine motoring curve,
• Transmission type,
• Transmission gear ratios,
• Drive axle ratio,
• Loaded tire radius for drive and
steer tires,
• Idle Reduction,
• Weight Reduction, and
• Other pre-defined off-cycle
technologies.
(i) Driveline Inputs
As with tractors, for each engine
family, an engine fuel map, full load
torque curve, and motoring curve would
be generated by engine manufacturers as
inputs to GEM. The test procedures for
the torque and motoring curves are
found in proposed 40 CFR part 1065.
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Section II.D.1.b describes these
proposed procedures as well as the
proposed new procedure for generating
the engine fuel map. Also similar to
tractors, transmission specifications
would be input to GEM. Any number of
gears could be entered with a numerical
ratio for each, and transmission type
would be selectable as either a Manual,
Automated Manual, Automatic, or Dual
Clutch transmission.
As part of the driveline information
needed to run GEM, drive axle ratio
would be a user input. If a configuration
has a two-speed axle, the agencies
propose that a manufacturer may enter
the ratio that is expected to be engaged
most often. We request comment on
whether the agencies should allow this
choice. Two-speed axles are typically
specified for heavy-haul vocational
vehicles, where the higher numerical
ratio axle would be engaged during
transient driving conditions and to
deliver performance needed on work
sites, while the lower numerical ratio
axle would be engaged during highway
driving. The agencies request comment
on whether we should require GEM to
be run twice, once with each axle ratio,
where the output over the highway
cycles would be used from the run with
the lower axle ratio, and the output over
the transient cycle would be used from
the run with the higher axle ratio.
Tire size would be a new input to
GEM that is necessary for the model to
simulate the performance of the vehicle.
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The draft RIA Chapter 3 includes a
description of how to measure tire size.
For each model and nominal size of a
tire, there are numerous possible sizes
that could be measured, depending on
whether the tire is new or ‘‘grown,’’
meaning whether it has been broken in
for at least 200 miles. Size could also
vary based on load and inflation levels,
air temperature, and tread depth. The
agencies request comment on aspects of
measuring and reporting tire size that
could be specified by rule, to avoid any
unnecessary compliance burden of the
Phase 2 program.
at 40 CFR part 1065 specify that that
there must be two consecutive reference
zero load idle points to establish periods
of zero load idle for purposes of
calculating total work over an engine
test cycle. These two idle points from
the engine test would be used in GEM
for purposes of calculating emissions
during vehicle idling over the
vocational vehicle test cycles.
The agencies welcome comments on
the inclusion of these technologies into
GEM in Phase 2.
(ii) Idle Reduction Inputs
In Phase 1, the agencies adopted
tractor regulations that provided
manufacturers with the ability to utilize
high strength steel and aluminum
components for weight reduction
without the burden of entering the curb
weight of every tractor produced. In
Phase 2, the agencies propose to apply
relevant weights from the tractor lookup
table to vocational vehicles. As noted
above, the agencies are proposing to
recognize weight reduction by allocating
one half of the weight reduction to
payload in the denominator, while one
Based on user inputs derived from
engine testing described in Section II
and draft RIA Chapter 3, GEM would
calculate CO2 emissions and fuel
consumption at both zero torque
(neutral idle) and with torque set to
Curb-Idle Transmission Torque for
automatic transmissions in ‘‘drive’’ (as
defined in 40 CFR 1065.510(f)(4) for
variable speed engines) for use in the
CO2 emission calculation in 40 CFR
1037.510(b). The proposed regulations
(iii) Weight Reduction Inputs
half of the weight reduction would be
subtracted from the overall weight of the
vehicle in GEM.
To adapt the tractor table for
vocational vehicles, the agencies
propose to add lookup values for
vehicles in lower weight classes. We
believe it is appropriate to also
recognize the weight reduction
associated with 6x2 axles.319
Components available for vocational
vehicle manufacturers to select for
weight reduction are shown below in
Table V–29, below. We are also
proposing to assign a fixed weight
increase to natural gas fueled vehicles to
reflect the weight increase of natural gas
fuel tanks versus gasoline or diesel
tanks. These are shown as negative
values in Table V–29 to indicate that
GEM would internally compute these
values in an inverse manner as would
be computed for a weight reduction, for
which the GEM input is a positive
numerical value. We welcome
comments on all aspects of weight
reduction approaches and potential
weight increases as a byproduct of
technology application.
TABLE V—29 PROPOSED PHASE 2 WEIGHT REDUCTION TECHNOLOGIES FOR VOCATIONAL VEHICLES
Vocational Vehicle Class
Component
Material
Class 2b–5
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Axle Hubs—Non-Drive ..........................................
Axle Hubs—Non-Drive ..........................................
Axle—Non-Drive ...................................................
Axle—Non-Drive ...................................................
Brake Drums—Non-Drive .....................................
Brake Drums—Non-Drive .....................................
Axle Hubs—Drive .................................................
Axle Hubs—Drive .................................................
Brake Drums—Drive .............................................
Brake Drums—Drive .............................................
Clutch Housing .....................................................
Clutch Housing .....................................................
Suspension Brackets, Hangers ............................
Suspension Brackets, Hangers ............................
Transmission Case ...............................................
Transmission Case ...............................................
Aluminum ..............................................................
High Strength Steel ..............................................
Aluminum ..............................................................
High Strength Steel ..............................................
Aluminum ..............................................................
High Strength Steel ..............................................
Aluminum ..............................................................
High Strength Steel ..............................................
Aluminum ..............................................................
High Strength Steel ..............................................
Aluminum ..............................................................
High Strength Steel ..............................................
Aluminum ..............................................................
High Strength Steel ..............................................
Aluminum ..............................................................
High Strength Steel ..............................................
Crossmember—Cab .............................................
Crossmember—Cab .............................................
Crossmember—Non-Suspension .........................
Crossmember—Non-Suspension .........................
Crossmember—Suspension .................................
Crossmember—Suspension .................................
Driveshaft ..............................................................
Driveshaft ..............................................................
Frame Rails ..........................................................
Frame Rails ..........................................................
Wheels—Dual .......................................................
Wheels—Dual .......................................................
Wheels—Dual .......................................................
Wheels—Wide Base Single ..................................
Wheels—Wide Base Single ..................................
Wheels—Wide Base Single ..................................
Aluminum ..............................................................
High Strength Steel ..............................................
Aluminum ..............................................................
High Strength Steel ..............................................
Aluminum ..............................................................
High Strength Steel ..............................................
Aluminum ..............................................................
High Strength Steel ..............................................
Aluminum ..............................................................
High Strength Steel ..............................................
Aluminum ..............................................................
High Strength Steel ..............................................
Lightweight Aluminum ..........................................
Aluminum ..............................................................
High Strength Steel ..............................................
Lightweight Aluminum ..........................................
40
5
60
15
60
8
40
10
70
5.5
34
9
67
20
45
11
10
2
15
5
15
4
12
5
120
24
126
48
180
278
168
294
319 See NACFE Confidence Findings on the
Potential of 6x2 Axles, Note 152 above.
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Class 6–7
13JYP2
Class 8
40
5
60
15
60
8
80
20
140
11
40
10
100
30
50
12
14
4
18
6
20
5
40
10
300
40
126
48
180
278
168
294
15
5
21
7
25
6
50
12
440
87
210
80
300
556
336
588
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TABLE V—29 PROPOSED PHASE 2 WEIGHT REDUCTION TECHNOLOGIES FOR VOCATIONAL VEHICLES—Continued
Vocational Vehicle Class
Component
Material
Class 2b–5
Permanent 6x2 Axle Configuration .......................
CI Liquified Natural Gas Vocational Vehicle ........
SI Compressed Natural Gas Vocational Vehicle
CI Compressed Natural Gas Vocational Vehicle
(b) Test Procedures
Powertrain families aredefined in
Section II.C.3.b, and powertrain test
procedures are discussed in the draft
RIA Chapter 3. The agencies propose
that the results from testing a
powertrain configuration using the
matrix of tests described in draft RIA
Chapter 3.6 could be applied broadly
across all vocational vehicles in which
that powertrain would be installed.
As in Phase 1, the rolling resistance
of each tire would be measured using
the ISO 28850 test method for drive tires
and steer tires planned for fitment to the
vehicle being certified. Once the test
CRR values are obtained, a manufacturer
would input the CRR values for the
drive and steer tires separately into the
GEM. For vocational vehicles in Phase
2, the agencies propose that the vehicle
load would be distributed with 30
percent of the load over the steer tires
and 70 percent of the load over the drive
tires. With these data entered, the
amount of GHG reduction attributed to
tire rolling resistance would be
incorporated into the overall vehicle
compliance value.
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(c) Useful Life and In-Use Standards
Section 202(a)(1) of the CAA specifies
that emission standards are to be
applicable for the useful life of the
vehicle. The standards that EPA and
NHTSA are proposing would apply to
individual vehicles and engines at
production and in use. NHTSA is not
proposing in-use standards for vehicles
and engines.
Manufacturers may be required to
submit, as part of the application for
certification, an engineering analysis
showing that emission control
performance will not deteriorate during
the useful life, with proper
maintenance. If maintenance will be
required to prevent or minimize
deterioration, a demonstration may be
required that this maintenance will be
performed in use. See 40 CFR 1037.241.
320 See National Energy Policy Institute (2012),
Note 200 above.
321 See Westport presentation (2013), Note 201,
above.
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Multi ......................................................................
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N/A
Class 8
300
320 321 ¥600
Multi ......................................................................
Multi ......................................................................
Multi ......................................................................
EPA is proposing to continue the
Phase 1 approach to adjustment factors
and deterioration factors. The
technologies on which the Phase 1
vocational vehicle standards were
predicated were not expected to have
any deterioration of GHG effectiveness
in use. However, the regulations
provided a process for manufacturers to
develop deterioration factors (DF) if
they needed. We anticipate that some
hybrid powertrain systems may
experience some deterioration of
effectiveness with age of the energy
storage device. We believe the
regulations in place currently provide
adequate instructions to manufacturers
for developing DF where needed. We
request comment on whether any
changes to the DF process are needed.
As with engine certification, a
manufacturer must provide evidence of
compliance through the regulatory
useful life of the vehicle. Factors
influencing vehicle-level GHG
performance over the life of the vehicle
fall into two basic categories: Vehicle
attributes and maintenance items. Each
category merits different treatment from
the perspective of assessing useful life
compliance, as each has varying degrees
of manufacturer versus owner/operator
responsibility.
For vocational vehicles, attributes
generally refers to components that are
installed by the manufacturer to meet
the standard, whose reduction
properties are assessed at the time of
certification, and which are expected to
last the full life of the vehicle with
effectiveness maintained as new for the
life of the vehicle with no special
maintenance requirements. To assess
useful life compliance, we are proposing
to follow a design-based approach that
would ensure that the manufacturer has
robustly designed these features so they
can reasonably be expected to last the
useful life of the vehicle.
For vocational vehicles, maintenance
items generally refers to items that are
replaced, renewed, cleaned, inspected,
or otherwise addressed in the
preventative maintenance schedule
specified by the vehicle manufacturer.
Replacement items that have a direct
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influence on GHG emissions are
primarily tires and lubricants, but may
also include hybrid system batteries.
Synthetic engine oil may be used by
vehicle manufacturers to reduce the
GHG emissions of their vehicles.
Manufacturers may specify that these
fluids be changed throughout the useful
life of the vehicle. If this is the case, the
manufacturer should have a reasonable
basis that the owner/operator will use
fluids having the same properties. This
may be accomplished by requiring (in
service documentation, labeling, etc.)
that only these fluids can be used as
replacements. In this proposal, the only
maintenance costs we have quantified
are those for tire replacement, as
described in Section IX.C.3 and the draft
RIA Chapter 7.1. The agencies invite
comments with information related to
maintenance costs that the agencies
should quantify for the final rules.
For current non-hybrid technologies,
if the vehicle remains in its original
certified condition throughout its useful
life, it is not believed that GHG
emissions would increase as a result of
service accumulation. As in Phase 1, the
agencies propose allowing the use of an
assigned deterioration factor of zero
where appropriate in Phase 2; however
this does not negate the responsibility of
the manufacturer to ensure compliance
with the emission standards throughout
the useful life. The vehicle
manufacturer would be primarily
responsible for providing engineering
analysis demonstrating that vehicle
attributes will last for the full useful life
of the vehicle. We anticipate this
demonstration would show that
components are constructed of
sufficiently robust materials and design
practices so as not to become
dysfunctional under normal operating
conditions.
In Phase 1, EPA set the useful life for
engines and vehicles with respect to
GHG emissions equal to the respective
useful life periods for criteria pollutants.
In April 2014, as part of the Tier 3 lightduty vehicle final rule, EPA extended
the regulatory useful life period for
criteria pollutants to 150,000 miles or 15
years, whichever comes first, for Class
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values from Phase 1, which are 185,000
miles (or 10 years) and 435,000 miles (or
10 years), respectively. EPA requests
comment on this approach, including
the proposed values and the overall
process envisioned for achieving the
long-term goal of adopting harmonized
useful-life specifications for criteria and
GHG standards that properly represent
the manufacturers’ obligation to meet
emission standards over the expected
service life of the vehicles. EPA may
also revisit the useful-life values that
apply for medium heavy-duty vehicles
and heavy heavy-duty vehicles.
One technology option for vocational
vehicle manufacturers to reduce GHG
emissions is to use a smaller engine,
perhaps in conjunction with a hybrid
powertrain. This could lead to a
situation where the engine and the
vehicle are subject to emission
standards over different useful-life
periods. For example, an urban bus
(heavy heavy-duty vehicle), might be
able to use a medium heavy-duty
engine, or even a light heavy-duty
engine. While such a mismatch in
useful life values could be confusing,
we don’t believe it poses any particular
policy problem that we need to address.
EPA requests comment on the
possibility of mismatched engine and
vehicle useful-life values and on any
possible implications this may have for
manufacturers’ ability to design, certify,
produce, and sell their engines and
vehicles.
Where:
CutpointRegional is the percent of maximum
engine test speed that is achieved at a
vehicle speed of 65 mph,
SLR is the static loaded tire radius entered
into GEM as specified in the regulations,
Axle ratio is the drive axle ratio that entered
into GEM as specified in the regulations,
Trans ratio is the ratio of the top transmission
gear that is not permanently locked out,
fntest is the maximum engine test speed as
defined at 40 CFR 1065.610, and C is a
constant equal to:
• If a vehicle is powered by a CI
engine, use the Urban Duty Cycle if the
resulting value from the calculation
described in Equation V–2 is greater
than 90 percent.
• If a vehicle is powered by a SI
engine, use the Urban Duty Cycle if the
resulting value from the calculation
described in Equation V–2 is greater
than 50 percent.
(d) Assigning Vehicles to Test Cycles
EP13JY15.005
EP13JY15.006
The agencies propose the following
logic for deciding which chassis
configurations would be assigned to
each of the three proposed vocational
duty cycles and thus regulatory
subcategories:
• A vehicle would be certified over
the Multipurpose Duty Cycle, unless
one of the following conditions warrants
certifying over either the Regional or
Urban cycle.
• If the vehicle is powered by a CI
engine, use the Regional Duty Cycle if
the resulting value from the calculation
described in Equation V–1 is less than
75 percent.
• If the vehicle is powered by a SI
engine, use the Regional Duty Cycle if
the resulting value from the calculation
described in Equation V–1 is less than
45 percent.
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2b and 3 pickup trucks and vans and
some light-duty trucks (79 FR 23414,
April 28, 2014). Class 2 through Class 5
heavy-duty vehicles subject to the GHG
standards described in this section for
vocational applications generally use
the same kinds of engines,
transmissions, and emission controls as
the Class 2b and 3 vehicles that are
chassis-certified to the criteria standards
under 40 CFR part 86, subpart S. EPA
and NHTSA are therefore proposing that
the Phase 2 GHG and fuel consumption
standards for vocational vehicles at or
below 19,500 lbs GVWR apply over the
same useful life of 150,000 miles or 15
years. In many cases, this will result in
aligned useful-life values for criteria and
GHG standards. Where this longer
useful life is not aligned with the useful
life that applies for criteria standards
(generally in the case of engine-based
certification under 40 CFR part 86,
subpart A), EPA may revisit the usefullife values for both criteria and GHG
standards in a future rulemaking. For
medium heavy-duty vehicles (19,500 to
33,000 lbs GVWR) and heavy heavyduty vehicles (above 33,000 lbs GVWR)
EPA is proposing to keep the useful-life
Federal Register / Vol. 80, No. 133 / Monday, July 13, 2015 / Proposed Rules
40327
Where:
CutpointUrban is the percent of maximum
engine test speed that is achieved at a
vehicle speed of 55 mph,
SLR is the static loaded tire radius entered
into GEM as specified in the regulations,
Axle ratio is the drive axle ratio that is
entered into GEM as specified in the
regulations,
Trans ratio is the ratio of the top transmission
gear that is not permanently locked out,
fntest is the maximum engine test speed as
defined at 40 CFR 1065.610, and C is a
constant equal to:
The agencies ran GEM with many
vocational vehicle configurations to
develop a data set with which we could
assess appropriate cutpoints for the
above equations. The configurations
varied primarily by the engine model,
fuel type, and axle ratio. See the draft
RIA Chapter 2.9.2 for further details on
the assessment process for these
proposed cutpoints.
The agencies realize that there are
vocational vehicles for which the above
logic may not result in an appropriate
assignment of test cycle. Therefore we
are proposing an exception that would
enable any vehicle with a hybrid
drivetrain to certify over the Urban test
cycle. Further, we are proposing that the
following vehicles must be certified
using the Regional cycle: intercity coach
buses, recreational vehicles, and
vehicles whose engine is exclusively
certified over the SET. We are also
proposing to allow manufacturers to
request a different duty cycle. We
request comment on this approach, and
whether we should allow manufacturers
to have complete freedom to select a test
cycle without any need for EPA or
NHTSA approval.
emissions in Phase 2 has increased
significantly. For example, the engine,
transmission, axle configuration, tire
radius, and idle reduction system are
control systems that can be evaluated
on-cycle in Phase 2 (i.e. these
technologies’ performance can now be
input to GEM), but could not be
evaluated in Phase 1. Due to the
complexity in determining greenhouse
gas emissions as proposed in Phase 2,
the agencies do not believe that we can
unambiguously determine whether or
not a vehicle is in a certified condition
through simply comparing information
that could be made available on an
emission control label with the
components installed on a vehicle.
Therefore, EPA proposes to remove the
requirement to include the emission
control system identifiers required in 40
CFR 1037.135(c)(6) and in Appendix III
to 40 CFR part 1037 from the emission
control labels for vocational vehicles
certified to the primary Phase 2
standards. However, the agencies may
finalize requirements to maintain some
label content to facilitate a limited
visual inspection of key vehicle
parameters that can be readily observed.
Such requirements may be very similar
to the labeling requirements from the
Phase 1 rulemaking, though we would
want to more carefully consider the list
of technologies that would allow for the
most effective inspection. We request
comment on an appropriate list of
candidate technologies that would
properly balance the need to limit label
content with the interest in providing
the most useful information for
inspectors to confirm that vehicles have
been properly built. EPA is not
proposing to modify the existing
emission control labels for vocational
vehicles certified for MYs 2014–2020
(Phase 1) CO2 standards.
Under the agencies’ existing
authorities, manufacturers must provide
detailed build information for a specific
vehicle upon our request. Our
expectation is that this information
should be available to us via email or
other similar electronic communication
on a same-day basis, or within 24 hours
of a request at most. We request
comment on any practical limitations in
promptly providing this information.
We also request comment on
approaches that would minimize
burden for manufacturers to respond to
requests for vehicle build information
and would expedite an authorized
compliance inspector’s visual
inspection. For example, the agencies
have started to explore ideas that would
provide inspectors with an electronic
method to identify vehicles and access
on-line databases that would list all of
the engine-specific and vehicle-specific
emissions control system information.
We believe that electronic and Internet
technology exists today for using scan
tools to read a bar code or radio
frequency identification tag affixed to a
vehicle that would then lead to secure
on-line access to a database of
manufacturers’ detailed vehicle and
engine build information. Our
exploratory work on these ideas has
raised questions about the level of effort
that would be required to develop,
implement and maintain an information
technology system to provide inspectors
real-time access to this information. We
have also considered questions about
privacy and data security. We request
comment on the concept of electronic
labels and database access, including
any available information on similar
systems that exist today and on burden
estimates and approaches that could
address concerns about privacy and data
security. Based on new information that
we receive, we may consider initiating
a separate rulemaking effort to propose
and request comment on implementing
such an approach.
ebenthall on DSK3VPTVN1PROD with MISCELLANEOUS
(a) Emission Control Labels
The agencies consider it crucial that
authorized compliance inspectors are
able to identify whether a vehicle is
certified, and if so whether it is in its
certified condition. To facilitate this
identification in Phase 1, EPA adopted
labeling provisions for vocational
vehicles that included several items.
The Phase 1 vocational vehicle label
must include the manufacturer, vehicle
identifier such as the Vehicle
Identification Number, vehicle family,
regulatory subcategory, date of
manufacture, compliance statements,
and emission control system identifiers
(see 40 CFR 1037.135). In Phase 1, the
vocational vehicle emission control
system identifier is tire rolling
resistance, plus any innovative and
advanced technologies.
The number of proposed emission
control systems for greenhouse gas
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(b) End of Year Reports
In the Phase 1 program,
manufacturers participating in the ABT
program provided 90 day and 270 day
reports to EPA and NHTSA after the end
of the model year. The agencies adopted
two reports for the initial program to
help manufacturers become familiar
with the reporting process. For the HD
Phase 2 program, the agencies propose
to simplify reporting such that
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manufacturers would only be required
to submit one end of the year report 120
days after the end of the model year
with the potential to obtain approval for
a delay up to 30 days. We welcome
comment on this proposed revision.
ebenthall on DSK3VPTVN1PROD with MISCELLANEOUS
(c) Delegated Assembly
The proposed standards for vocational
vehicles are based on the application of
a wide range of technologies. Certifying
vehicle manufacturers manage their
compliance demonstration to reflect this
range of technologies by describing their
certified configurations in the
application for certification. In many
cases, these technologies are designed
and assembled (or installed) directly by
the certifying vehicle manufacturer,
which is typically the chassis
manufacturer. In these cases, it is
straightforward to assign the
responsibility to the certifying vehicle
manufacturer for ensuring that vehicles
are in their proper certified
configuration when sold to the ultimate
user. In Phase 1, the only vehicle
technology available for certified
vocational vehicles was LRR tires.
Because these are generally installed by
the chassis manufacturer, there would
have been no need to rely on a second
stage manufacturer for purposes of
certification.
In Phase 2, the agencies are
considering certain technologies where
the certifying vehicle manufacturer may
want or need to rely on a downstream
manufacturing company (a secondary
vehicle manufacturer) to take steps to
assemble or install certain components
or technologies to bring the vehicle into
a certified configuration. A similar
relationship between manufacturers
applies with aftertreatment devices for
certified engines. EPA has adopted
‘‘delegated assembly’’ provisions for
engines at 40 CFR 1068.261 to describe
how manufacturers can share
compliance responsibilities through
these cooperative assembly procedures.
We are proposing to take a similar
approach for vehicle-based GHG
standards in 40 CFR part 1037. The
delegated assembly provisions as
proposed for GHG standards are focused
on add-on features to reduce
aerodynamic drag, and on air
conditioning systems. This may occur,
for example, if the certifying
manufacturer sells a cab-complete
chassis to a secondary vehicle
manufacturer, which in turn installs a
box with the appropriate aerodynamic
accessories to reduce drag losses. To the
extent certifying manufacturers rely on
secondary vehicle manufacturers to
bring the vehicle into a certified
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configuration, the following provisions
would apply:
• The certifying manufacturer would
describe their approach to delegated
assembly in the application for
certification.
• The certifying manufacturer would
create installation instructions to
describe how the secondary vehicle
manufacturer would bring the vehicle
into a certified configuration.
• The certifying manufacturer would
have a contractual agreement with each
affected secondary vehicle manufacturer
obligating the secondary vehicle
manufacturer to build each vehicle into
a certified configuration and to provide
affidavits confirming proper assembly
procedures, and to provide information
regarding deployment of each type of
technology (if there are technology
options that relate to different GEM
input values).
The delegated assembly provisions
are most relevant to vocational vehicles,
but we are not proposing to limit these
provisions to vocational vehicles.
Similarly, we expect that aerodynamic
devices and air conditioning systems are
the most likely technologies for which
delegated assembly is appropriate, but
we are not proposing to limit the use of
delegated assembly to these
technologies.
Secondary manufacturers (such as
body builders) that build complete
vehicles from certified chassis are
obligated to comply with the emissionrelated installation instructions
provided by the certifying manufacturer.
Secondary manufacturers that build
complete vehicles from exempted
chassis are obligated to comply with all
of the regulations.
The draft regulations at 40 CFR
1037.621 describe further detailed
provisions related to delegated
assembly. We request comment on all
aspects of these provisions. In
particular, we request comment on how
the procedures should be applied more
broadly or more narrowly for specific
technologies. We also request comment
on any further modifications that should
be made to the delegated assembly
provisions to reflect the nature of
manufacturing relationships or
technologies that are specific to
greenhouse gas standards for heavy-duty
highway vehicles.
(d) Demonstrating Compliance With
Proposed HFC Leakage Standards
EPA is proposing requirements for
vocational chassis manufacturers to
demonstrate reductions in direct
emissions of HFC in their A/C systems
and components through a design-based
method. The method for calculating A/
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C leakage is the same as was adopted in
Phase 1 for tractors and HD pickups and
vans. It is based closely on an industryconsensus leakage scoring method,
described below. This leakage scoring
method is correlated to experimentallymeasured leakage rates from a number
of vehicles using the different available
A/C components. As is done currently
for other HD vehicles, vocational chassis
manufacturers would choose from a
menu of A/C equipment and
components used in their vehicles in
order to establish leakage scores, to
characterize their A/C system leakage
performance. The percent leakage per
year would then be calculated as this
score divided by the system refrigerant
capacity.
Consistent with the light-duty rule
and the Phase 1 program for other HD
vehicles, EPA is proposing a
requirement that vocational chassis
manufacturers compare the components
of a vehicle’s A/C system with a set of
leakage-reduction technologies and
actions that is based closely on that
developed through the Improved Mobile
Air Conditioning program and SAE
International (as SAE Surface Vehicle
Standard J2727, ‘‘HFC–134a, Mobile Air
Conditioning System Refrigerant
Emission Chart,’’ August 2008 version).
See generally 75 FR 25426. The SAE
J2727 approach was developed from
laboratory testing of a variety of A/C
related components, and EPA believes
that the J2727 leakage scoring system
generally represents a reasonable
correlation with average real-world
leakage in new vehicles. This approach
associates each component with a
specific leakage rate in grams per year
that is identical to the values in J2727
and then sums together the component
leakage values to develop the total A/C
system leakage. Unlike the light-duty
program, in the heavy-duty vehicle
program, the total A/C leakage score is
divided by the value of the total
refrigerant system capacity to develop a
percent leakage per year. EPA believes
that the design-based approach results
in estimates of likely leakage emissions
reductions that are comparable to those
that would result from performancebased testing.
Consistent with HD GHG Phase 1,
EPA is not proposing a specific in-use
standard for leakage, as neither test
procedures nor facilities exist to
measure refrigerant leakage from a
vehicle’s air conditioning system.
However, consistent with the HD Phase
1 program and the light-duty rule,
where we propose to require that
manufacturers attest to the durability of
components and systems used to meet
the CO2 standards (see 75 FR 25689), we
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propose to require that manufacturers of
heavy-duty vocational vehicles attest to
the durability of these systems, and
provide an engineering analysis that
demonstrates component and system
durability.
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(e) Glider Vehicles
EPA is proposing to not exempt glider
vehicles from the Phase 2 GHG emission
and fuel consumption standards.322
Gliders and glider kits are exempt from
NHTSA’s Phase 1 fuel consumption
standards. EPA’s interim provisions of
Phase 1 exempted glider vehicles
produced by small businesses from the
Phase 1 CO2 emission standards but did
not include such a blanket exemption
for other glider vehicles.323 Thus, some
glider vehicles are already subject to the
requirement to obtain a vehicle
certificate prior to introduction into
commerce as a new vehicle. However,
the agencies believe glider
manufacturers may not understand how
these regulations apply to them,
resulting in a number of uncertified
vehicles.
EPA is concerned about adverse
economic impacts on small businesses
that assemble glider kits and glider
vehicles. Therefore, EPA is proposing a
new provision that would grandfather
existing small businesses, but cap
annual production based on recent
sales. This approach is consistent with
the approach recommended by the
Small Business Advocacy Review Panel,
which believed there should be an
allowance to produce some glider
vehicles for legitimate purposes. EPA
requests comment on whether any
special provisions would be needed to
accommodate glider vehicles. See
Section XIV.B for additional discussion
of the proposed requirements for glider
vehicles.
Similarly, NHTSA is considering
including gliders under its Phase 2
program. The agencies request comment
on their respective considerations. We
believe that the agencies potentially
having different policies for glider kits
and glider vehicles under the Phase 2
program would not result in
problematic disharmony between the
NHTSA and EPA programs, because of
322 Glider vehicles are new vehicles produced to
accept rebuilt engines (or other used engines) along
with used axles and/or transmissions. The common
term ‘‘glider kit’’ is used here primarily to refer to
an assemblage of parts into which the used/rebuilt
engine is installed.
323 Rebuilt engines used in glider vehicles are
subject to EPA criteria pollutant emission standards
applicable for the model year of the engine. See 40
CFR 86.004–40 for requirements that apply for
engine rebuilding. Under existing regulations,
engines that remain in their certified configuration
after rebuilding may continue to be used.
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the small number of vehicles that would
be involved. EPA believes that its
proposed changes would result in the
glider market returning to the pre-2007
levels, in which fewer than 1,000 glider
vehicles would be produced in most
years. Given that a large fraction of these
vehicles would be exempted from EPA
regulations because they would be
produced by qualifying small
businesses, they would thus, in practice,
be treated the same under EPA and
NHTSA regulations. Only non-exempt
glider vehicles would be subject to
different requirements under the
NHTSA and EPA regulations. However,
we believe that this is unlikely to
exceed a few hundred vehicles in any
year, which would be few enough not to
result in any meaningful disharmony
between the two agencies.
With regard to NHTSA’s safety
authority over gliders, the agency notes
that it has become increasingly aware of
potential noncompliance with its
regulations applicable to gliders.
NHTSA has learned of manufacturers
who are creating glider vehicles that are
new vehicles under 49 CFR 571.7(e);
however, the manufacturers are not
certifying them and obtaining a new
VIN as required. NHTSA plans to
pursue enforcement actions as
applicable against noncompliant
manufacturers. In addition to
enforcement actions, NHTSA may
consider amending 49 CFR 571.7(e) and
related regulations as necessary in the
future. NHTSA believes manufacturers
may not be using this regulation as
originally intended.
(3) Proposed Compliance Flexibility
Provisions
EPA and NHTSA are proposing three
flexibility provisions specifically for
vocational vehicle manufacturers in
Phase 2. These are an averaging,
banking and trading program for CO2
emissions and fuel consumption credits,
provisions for off-cycle credits for
technologies that are not included as
inputs to the GEM, and optional chassis
certification. The agencies are also
proposing to remove or modify several
Phase 1 interim provisions, as described
below. Program-wide compliance
flexibilities are discussed in Section
I.B.3 to I.C.1.
(a) Averaging, Banking, and Trading
(ABT) Program
Averaging, banking, and trading of
emission credits have been an important
part of many EPA mobile source
programs under CAA Title II. ABT
provisions provide manufacturers
flexibilities that assist in the efficient
development and implementation of
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new technologies and therefore enable
new technologies to be implemented at
a more aggressive pace than without
ABT. NHTSA and EPA propose to carryover the Phase 1 ABT provisions for
vocational vehicles into Phase 2, as it is
an important way to achieve each
agency’s programmatic goals. ABT is
also discussed in Section I and Section
III.F.1.
Consistent with the Phase 1 averaging
sets, the agencies propose that chassis
manufacturers may average SI-powered
vocational vehicle chassis with CIpowered vocational vehicle chassis,
within the same vehicle weight class
group. In Phase 1, all vocational and
tractor chassis within a vehicle weight
class group were able to average with
each other, regardless of whether they
were powered by a CI or SI engine. The
proposed Phase 2 approach would
continue this. The only difference is
that in Phase 2, there would be different
numerical standards set for the SIpowered and CI-powered vehicles, but
that would not need to alter the basis for
averaging. This is consistent with the
Phase 1 approach where, for example,
Class 8 day cab tractors, Class 8 sleeper
cab tractors and Class 8 vocational
vehicles each have different numerical
standards, while they all belong to the
same averaging set.
As discussed in V. E. (1) (c), EPA and
NHTSA are proposing to change the
useful life for LHD vocational vehicles
for GHG emissions from the current 10
years/110,000 miles to 15 years/150,000
miles to be consistent with the useful
life of criteria pollutants recently
updated in EPA’s Tier 3 rule. For the
same reasons, EPA and NHTSA are also
proposing a useful life adjustment for
HD pickups and vans, as described in
Section VI.E.(1). According to the
credits calculation formula at 40 CFR
1037.705 and 49 CFR 535.7, useful life
in miles is a multiplicative factor
included in the calculation of CO2 and
fuel consumption credits. In order to
ensure that banked credits would
maintain their value in the transition
from Phase 1 to Phase 2, NHTSA and
EPA propose an interim vocational
vehicle adjustment factor of 1.36 for
credits that are carried forward from
Phase 1 to the MY 2021 and later Phase
2 standards.324 Without this adjustment
factor the proposed change in useful life
would effectively result in a discount of
banked credits that are carried forward
from Phase 1 to Phase 2, which is not
the intent of the change in the useful
life. The agencies do not believe that
this proposed adjustment would result
in a loss of program benefits because
324 See
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there is little or no deterioration
anticipated for CO2 emissions and fuel
consumption over the life of the
vehicles. Also, the carry-forward of
credits is an integral part of the
program, helping to smoothing the
transition to the new Phase 2 standards.
The agencies believe that effectively
discounting carry-forward credits from
Phase 1 to Phase 2 would be
unnecessary and could negatively
impact the feasibility of the proposed
Phase 2 standards. EPA and NHTSA
request comment on all aspects of the
averaging, banking, and trading
program.
(b) Innovative and Off-Cycle Technology
Credits
In Phase 1, the agencies adopted an
emissions and fuel consumption credit
generating opportunity that applied to
innovative technologies that reduce fuel
consumption and CO2 emissions. These
technologies were required to not be in
common use with heavy-duty vehicles
before the 2010MY and not reflected in
the GEM simulation tool (i.e., the
benefits are ‘‘off-cycle’’). See 76 FR
57253. The agencies propose to largely
continue the Phase 1 innovative
technology program but to redesignate it
as an off-cycle program for Phase 2. The
agencies propose to maintain that, in
order for a manufacturer to receive
credits for Phase 2, the off-cycle
technology would still need to meet the
requirement that it was not in common
use prior to MY 2010.
The agencies recognize that there are
emerging technologies today that are
being developed, but would not be
accounted for in the GEM tool, and
therefore would be considered off-cycle.
These technologies could include
systems such as electrified accessories,
air conditioning system efficiency, and
aerodynamics for vocational vehicles
beyond those tested and pre-approved
in the HD Phase 2 program. Such offcycle technologies could include
known, commercialized technologies if
they are not yet widely utilized in a
particular heavy-duty sector
subcategory. Any credits for these
technologies would need to be based on
real-world fuel consumption and GHG
reductions that can be measured with
verifiable test methods using
representative driving conditions
typical of the engine or vehicle
application. More information about offcycle technology credits can be found at
Section I.C.1.c.
As in Phase 1, the agencies are
proposing to continue to provide two
paths for approval of the test procedure
to measure the CO2 emissions and fuel
consumption reductions of an off-cycle
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technology used in vocational vehicles.
See 40 CFR 1037.610 and 49 CFR 535.7.
The first path would not require a
public approval process of the test
method. A manufacturer could use ‘‘preapproved’’ test methods for HD vehicles
including the A-to-B chassis testing,
powerpack testing or on-road testing. A
manufacturer may also use any
developed test procedure that has
known quantifiable benefits. A test plan
detailing the testing methodology would
be required to be approved prior to
collecting any test data. The agencies
are also proposing to continue the
second path, which includes a public
approval process of any testing method
that could have questionable benefits
(i.e., an unknown usage rate for a
technology). Furthermore, the agencies
are proposing to modify their provisions
to clarify what documentation must be
submitted for approval, which would
align them with provisions in 40 CFR
86.1869–12. NHTSA is separately
proposing to prohibit credits from
technologies addressed by any of its
crash avoidance safety rulemakings (i.e.,
congestion management systems). See
also 77 FR 62733 (discussion of similar
issue in the light duty greenhouse gas/
fuel economy regulations). We welcome
recommendations on how to improve or
streamline the off-cycle technology
approval process.
There are some technologies that are
entering the market today, and although
our model does not have the capability
to simulate the effectiveness over the
test cycles, there are reliable estimates
of effectiveness available to the
agencies. These are proposed to be
recognized in our HD Phase 2
certification procedures as pre-defined
technologies, and would not be
considered off-cycle. Examples of such
technologies for vocational vehicles
include 6x2 axles and axle lubricants.
These default effectiveness values
would be used as valid inputs to GEM.
The projected effectiveness of each
vocational vehicle technology is
discussed in the draft RIA Chapter 2.9.
The agencies propose that the
approval for Phase 1 innovative
technology credits (approved prior to
2021 MY) would be carried into the
Phase 2 program on a limited basis for
those technologies where the benefit is
not accounted for in the Phase 2 test
procedure. Therefore, the manufacturers
would not be required to request new
approval for any innovative credits
carried into the off-cycle program, but
would have to demonstrate the new
cycle does not account for these
improvements beginning in the 2021
MY. The agencies believe this is
appropriate because technologies, such
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as those related to the transmission or
driveline, may no longer be ‘‘off-cycle’’
because of the addition of these
technologies into the Phase 2 version of
GEM. The agencies also seek comments
on whether off-cycle technologies in the
Phase 2 program should be limited by
infrequent common use and by what
model years, if any. We also seek
comments on an appropriate
penetration rate for a technology not to
be considered in common use.
(c) Optional Chassis Certification
In Phase 2, the agencies are proposing
to continue the Phase 1 provisions
allowing the optional chassis
certification of vehicles over 14,000 lbs
GVWR. In Phase 1 the agencies allowed
manufacturers the option to choose to
comply with heavy-duty pickup or van
standards, for incomplete vehicles that
were identical to those on complete
pickup truck or van counterparts, with
respect to most components that affect
GHG emissions and fuel consumption,
such as engines, cabs, frames,
transmissions, axles, and wheels. The
incomplete vehicles would typically be
produced as cab-complete vehicles. For
example, a manufacturer could certify
under this allowance an incomplete
pickup truck that includes the cab, but
not the bed. The Phase 1 program also
includes provisions that allow
manufacturers to include some Class 4
and Class 5 vehicles in averaging sets
subject to the chassis-based HD pickup
and van standards, rather than the
vocational vehicle program.325
This optional chassis certification of
vehicles over 14,000 lbs applies for
greenhouse gas emission standards in
Phase 1, but not for criteria pollutant
emission standards. We revisited this
issue in the recent Tier 3 final rule,
where we revised the regulation to
allow this same flexibility relative to
exhaust emission standards for criteria
pollutants. However, EPA is now
seeking comment on the proper
approach for certifying vehicles above
14,000 lbs GVWR, because there are
lingering questions about how best to
align the certification processes for GHG
emissions and for criteria pollutants.
The agencies are requesting comment on
several issues on this topic, including
whether there should be an upper
weight limit to this allowance. See
Section XIV.A.2 for the issues on which
the agencies seek comment with respect
to chassis and engine certification for
GHG and criteria pollutants for vehicles
opting into the HD pickup and van
program.
325 See 76 FR 57259–57260, September 15, 2011
and 78 FR 36374, June 17, 2013.
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(d) Phase 1 Flexibilities Not Proposed
for Phase 2
As described above in Section I, the
agencies are not proposing to provide
advanced technology credits in Phase 2.
These technologies had been defined in
Phase 1 as hybrid powertrains, Rankine
cycle engines, all-electric vehicles, and
fuel cell vehicles (see 40 CFR
1037.150(i)), at a 1.5 credit value with
the purpose to promote the early
implementation of advanced
technologies that were not expected to
be widely adopted in the market in the
2014 to 2018 time frame. Our feasibility
assessment for the proposed Phase 2
vocational vehicle standards includes a
projection of the use of hybrid
powertrains as described earlier in this
section; therefore the agencies believe it
would no longer be appropriate to
provide extra credit for this technology.
As noted above, waste heat recovery is
not projected to be utilized for
vocational vehicles within the time
frame of Phase 2. While the agencies are
not proposing to premise the Phase 2
vocational vehicle standards on fuel
cells or electric vehicles, we expect that
any vehicle certified with this
technology would provide such a large
credit to a manufacturer that an
additional incentive credit would not be
necessary. We welcome comments on
the need for such incentives, including
information on why an incentive for
specific technologies in this time frame
may be warranted, recognizing that the
incentive would result in reduced
benefits in terms of CO2 emissions and
fuel use due to the Phase 2 program.
The agencies are not proposing to
extend early credits to manufacturers
who comply early with Phase 2
standards, because the ABT program
from Phase 1 will be available to
manufacturers and this displaces the
need for early credits (see 40 CFR
1037.150(a)). Please see the more
complete discussion of this above in
Section I.
Another Phase 1 interim flexibility
that the agencies are not proposing to
continue in Phase 2 is the flexibility
known as the ‘‘loose engine’’ provision,
whereby SI engines sold to chassis
manufacturers and intended for use in
vocational vehicles need not meet the
separate SI engine standard (see
preamble Section II and draft RIA
Chapter 2.6), and instead may be
averaged with the manufacturer’s HD
pickup and van fleet. We believe the
benefits this particular flexibility offers
for manufacturers in the interim
between Phase 1 and Phase 2 would
diminish considerably in Phase 2. The
agencies are proposing a Phase 2 SI
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engine standard that is no more
stringent than the MY 2016 SI engine
standard adopted in Phase 1, while the
proposed Phase 2 standards for the HD
pickup and van fleet would be
progressively more stringent through
MY 2027. The primary certification path
designed in the Phase 1 program for
both CI and SI engines sold separately
and intended for use in vocational
vehicles was that they be engine
certified while the vehicle would be
GEM certified under the GHG rules. In
Phase 2 the agencies propose to
continue this as the certification path
for such engines intended for vocational
vehicles. See the draft RIA Chapter 2.6
for further discussion of the separate
engine standard for SI engines intended
for vocational vehicles.
(e) Other Phase 1 Interim Provisions
In HD Phase 1, EPA adopted
provisions to delay the onboard
diagnostics (OBD) requirements for
heavy-duty hybrid powertrains (see 40
CFR 86.010–18(q)). This provision
delayed full OBD requirements for
hybrids until MY 2016 and MY 2017. In
discussion with manufacturers during
the development of Phase 2, the
agencies have learned that meeting the
on-board diagnostic requirements for
criteria pollutant engine certification
continues to be a potential impediment
to adoption of hybrid systems. See
Section XIII.A.1 for a discussion of
regulatory changes proposed to reduce
the non-GHG certification burden for
engines paired with hybrid powertrain
systems.
Also in Phase 1, EPA adopted
provisions that reinforced the fact that
we were setting GHG emissions from the
tailpipe of heavy-duty vehicles.
Therefore, we treated all electric
vehicles as having zero emissions of
CO2, CH4, and N2O (see 40 CFR
1037.150(f)). Similarly, NHTSA adopted
regulations in Phase 1 that set the fuel
consumption standards based on the
fuel consumed by the vehicle. The
agencies also did not require emission
testing for electric vehicles in Phase 1.
The agencies considered the potential
unintended consequence of ignoring
upstream emissions from the charging of
heavy-duty battery-electric vehicles. In
our assessment, we have observed that
the few all-electric heavy-duty
vocational vehicles that have been
certified are being produced in very
small volumes in MY2014. As we look
to the future, we project very limited
adoption of electric vocational vehicles
into the market; therefore, we believe
that this provision is still appropriate.
Unlike the MY2012–2016 light-duty
rule, which adopted a cap whereby
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upstream emissions would be counted
after a certain volume of sales (see 75 FR
25434–25436), we believe there is no
need to propose a cap for vocational
vehicles because of the infrequent
projected use of EV technologies in the
Phase 2 timeframe. In Phase 2, we
propose to continue to deem electric
vehicles as having zero CO2, CH4, and
N2O emissions as well as zero fuel
consumption. We welcome comments
on this approach.
VI. Heavy-Duty Pickups and Vans
A. Introduction and Summary of Phase
1 HD Pickup and Van Standards
In the Phase 1 rule, EPA and NHTSA
established GHG and fuel consumption
standards and a program structure for
complete Class 2b and 3 heavy-duty
vehicles (referred to in these rules as
‘‘HD pickups and vans’’), as described
below. The Phase 1 standards began to
be phased-in in MY 2014 and the
agencies believe the program is working
well. The agencies are proposing to
retain most elements from the structure
of the program established in the Phase
1 rule for the Phase 2 program while
proposing more stringent Phase 2
standards for MY 2027, phased in over
MYs 2021–2027, that would require
additional GHG reductions and fuel
consumption improvements. The MY
2027 standards would remain in place
unless and until amended by the
agencies.
Heavy-duty vehicles with GVWR
between 8,501 and 10,000 lb are
classified in the industry as Class 2b
motor vehicles. Class 2b includes
vehicles classified as medium-duty
passenger vehicles (MDPVs) such as
very large SUVs. Because MDPVs are
frequently used like light-duty
passenger vehicles, they are regulated
by the agencies under the light-duty
vehicle rules. Thus the agencies did not
adopt additional requirements for
MDPVs in the Phase 1 rule and are not
proposing additional requirements for
MDPVs in this rulemaking. Heavy-duty
vehicles with GVWR between 10,001
and 14,000 lb are classified as Class 3
motor vehicles. Class 2b and Class 3
heavy-duty vehicles together emit about
15 percent of today’s GHG emissions
from the heavy-duty vehicle sector.
About 90 percent of HD pickups and
vans are 3⁄4-ton and 1-ton pickup trucks,
12- and 15-passenger vans, and large
work vans that are sold by vehicle
manufacturers as complete vehicles,
with no secondary manufacturer making
substantial modifications prior to
registration and use. Most of these
vehicles are produced by companies
with major light-duty markets in the
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United States, primarily Ford, General
Motors, and Chrysler. Often, the
technologies available to reduce fuel
consumption and GHG emissions from
this segment are similar to the
technologies used for the same purpose
on light-duty pickup trucks and vans,
including both engine efficiency
improvements (for gasoline and diesel
engines) and vehicle efficiency
improvements.
In the Phase 1 rule EPA adopted GHG
standards for HD pickups and vans
based on the whole vehicle (including
the engine), expressed as grams of CO2
per mile, consistent with the way these
vehicles are regulated by EPA today for
criteria pollutants. NHTSA adopted
corresponding gallons per 100 mile fuel
consumption standards that are likewise
based on the whole vehicle. This
complete vehicle approach adopted by
both agencies for HD pickups and vans
was consistent with the
recommendations of the NAS
Committee in its 2010 Report. EPA and
NHTSA adopted a structure for the
Phase 1 HD pickup and van standards
that in many respects paralleled longstanding NHTSA CAFE standards and
more recent coordinated EPA GHG
standards for manufacturers’ fleets of
new light-duty vehicles. These
commonalities include a new vehicle
fleet average standard for each
manufacturer in each model year and
the determination of these fleet average
standards based on production volumeweighted targets for each model, with
the targets varying based on a defined
vehicle attribute. Vehicle testing for
both the HD and light-duty vehicle
programs is conducted on chassis
dynamometers using the drive cycles
from the EPA Federal Test Procedure
(Light-duty FTP or ‘‘city’’ test) and
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Highway Fuel Economy Test (HFET or
‘‘highway’’ test).326
For the light-duty GHG and fuel
economy 327 standards, the agencies
factored in vehicle size by basing the
emissions and fuel economy targets on
vehicle footprint (the wheelbase times
the average track width).328 For those
standards, passenger cars and light
trucks with larger footprints are
assigned higher GHG and lower fuel
economy target levels in
acknowledgement of their inherent
tendency to consume more fuel and
emit more GHGs per mile. EISA requires
that NHTSA study ‘‘the appropriate
metric for measuring and expressing
commercial medium- and heavy-duty
vehicle and work truck fuel efficiency
performance, taking into consideration,
among other things, the work performed
by such on-highway vehicles and work
trucks . . .’’ See 49 U.S.C.
32902(k)(1)(B).329 For HD pickups and
vans, the agencies also set standards
based on vehicle attributes, but used a
work-based metric as the attribute rather
than the footprint attribute utilized in
the light-duty vehicle rulemaking.
Work-based measures such as payload
and towing capability are key among the
parameters that characterize differences
326 The Light-duty FTP is a vehicle driving cycle
that was originally developed for certifying lightduty vehicles and subsequently applied to HD
chassis testing for criteria pollutants. This contrasts
with the Heavy-duty FTP, which refers to the
transient engine test cycles used for certifying
heavy-duty engines (with separate cycles specified
for diesel and spark-ignition engines).
327 Light duty fuel economy standards are
expressed as miles per gallon (mpg), which is
inverse to the HD fuel consumption standards
which are expressed as gallons per 100 miles.
328 EISA requires CAFE standards for passenger
cars and light trucks to be attribute-based; See 49
U.S.C. 32902(b)(3)(A).
329 The NAS 2010 report likewise recommended
standards recognizing the work function of HD
vehicles. See 76 FR 57161.
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in the design of these vehicles, as well
as differences in how the vehicles will
be utilized. Buyers consider these
utility-based attributes when purchasing
a HD pickup or van. EPA and NHTSA
therefore finalized Phase 1 standards for
HD pickups and vans based on a ‘‘work
factor’’ attribute that combines the
vehicle’s payload and towing
capabilities, with an added adjustment
for 4-wheel drive vehicles. See generally
76 FR 57161–57162.
For Phase 1, the agencies adopted
provisions such that each
manufacturer’s fleet average standard is
based on production volume-weighting
of target standards for all vehicles that
in turn are based on each vehicle’s work
factor. These target standards are taken
from a set of curves (mathematical
functions). The Phase 1 curves are
shown in the figures below for reference
and are described in detail in the Phase
1 final rule.330 The agencies established
separate curves for diesel and gasoline
HD pickups and vans. The agencies are
proposing to continue to use the workbased attribute and gradually declining
standards approach for the Phase 2
standards, as discussed in Section VI.B.
below. Note that this approach does not
create an incentive to reduce the
capabilities of these vehicles because
less capable vehicles are required to
have proportionally lower emissions
and fuel consumption targets.
330 The Phase 1 Final Rule provides a full
discussion of the standard curves including the
equations and coefficients. See 76 FR 57162–57165,
September 15 2011. The standards are also
provided in the regulations at 40 CFR 1037.104
(which is proposed to be redesignated as 40 CFR
86.1819–14).
331 The NHTSA program provides voluntary
standards for model years 2014 and 2015. Target
line functions for 2016–2018 are for the second
NHTSA alternative described in the Phase 1
preamble Section II.C (d)(ii).
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800
750
6.95
700
-;;;-
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0
650
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0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
Work Factor (pounds)
Figure VI-1 EPA Phase 1 C0 2 Target Standards and NHTSA Fuel Consumption Target Standards for Diesel
HD Pickups and Vans 331
800
750
8.38
-;;;-
700
..!!!
7.38
650
0
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Gasoline Vehicles
a.
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1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
Figure VI-2 EPA Phase 1 C0 2 Target Standards and NHTSA Fuel Consumption Target Standards for
Gasoline HD Pickups and Vans
EPA phased in its CO2 standards
gradually starting in the 2014 model
year, at 15–20–40–60–100 percent of the
model year 2018 standards stringency
level in model years 2014–2015–2016–
2017–2018, respectively. The phase-in
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takes the form of the set of target
standard curves shown above, with
increasing stringency in each model
year. The final EPA Phase 1 standards
for 2018 (including a separate standard
to control air conditioning system
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leakage) represent an average pervehicle reduction in GHGs of 17 percent
for diesel vehicles and 12 percent for
gasoline vehicles, compared to a
common MY 2010 baseline. EPA also
finalized a compliance alternative
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whereby manufacturers can phase in
different percentages: 15–20–67–67–67–
100 percent of the model year 2019
standards stringency level in model
years 2014–2015–2016–2017–2018–
2019, respectively. This compliance
alternative parallels and is equivalent to
NHTSA’s first alternative described
below.
NHTSA’s Phase 1 program allows
manufacturers to select one of two fuel
consumption standard alternatives for
model years 2016 and later. The first
alternative defines individual gasoline
vehicle and diesel vehicle fuel
consumption target curves that will not
change for model years 2016–2018, and
are equivalent to EPA’s 67–67–67–100
percent target curves in model years
2016–2017–2018–2019, respectively.
This option is consistent with EISA
requirements that NHTSA provide 4
years lead-time and 3 years of stability
for standards. See 49 U.S.C. 32902
(k)(3). The second alternative uses target
curves that are equivalent to EPA’s 40–
60–100 percent target curves in model
years 2016–2017–2018, respectively.
Stringency for the alternatives in Phase
1 was selected by the agencies to allow
a manufacturer, through the use of the
credit carry-forward and carry-back
provisions that the agencies also
finalized, to meet both NHTSA fuel
efficiency and EPA GHG emission
standards using a single compliance
strategy. If a manufacturer cannot meet
an applicable standard in a given model
year, it may make up its shortfall by
over-complying in a subsequent year.
NHTSA also allows manufacturers to
voluntarily opt into the NHTSA HD
pickup and van program in model years
2014 or 2015. For these model years,
NHTSA’s fuel consumption target
curves are equivalent to EPA’s target
curves. The Phase 1 phase-in options
are summarized in Table VI–1.
TABLE VI–1—PHASE 1 STANDARDS PHASE-IN OPTIONS
2014
%
EPA Primary Phase-in ...........................................
EPA Compliance Option ........................................
NHTSA First Option ...............................................
NHTSA Second Option ..........................................
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The form and stringency of the Phase
1 standards curves are based on the
performance of a set of vehicle, engine,
and transmission technologies expected
(although not required) to be used to
meet the GHG emissions and fuel
economy standards for model year
2012–2016 light-duty vehicles, with full
consideration of how these technologies
are likely to perform in heavy-duty
vehicle testing and use. All of these
technologies are already in use or have
been announced for upcoming model
years in some light-duty vehicle models,
and some are in use in a portion of HD
pickups and vans as well. The
technologies include:
• advanced 8-speed automatic
transmissions
• aerodynamic improvements
• electro-hydraulic power steering
• engine friction reductions
• improved accessories
• low friction lubricants in powertrain
components
• lower rolling resistance tires
• lightweighting
• gasoline direct injection
• diesel aftertreatment optimization
• air conditioning system leakage
reduction (for EPA program only)
B. Proposed HD Pickup and Van
Standards
As described in this section, NHTSA
and EPA are proposing more stringent
MY 2027 and later Phase 2 standards
that would be phased in over model
years 2021–2027. The agencies are
proposing standards based on a yearover-year increase in stringency of 2.5
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2015
%
15
15
0
0
2016
%
20
20
0
0
percent over MYs 2021–2027 for a total
increase in stringency for the Phase 2
program of about 16 percent compared
to the MY 2018 Phase 1 standard. Note
that an individual manufacturer’s fleetwide target may differ from this
stringency increase due to changes in
vehicle sales mix and changes in work
factor. The agencies have analyzed
several alternatives which are discussed
in this section below and in Section X.
In particular, we are requesting
comment not only on the proposed
standards but also particularly on the
Alternative 4 standard which would
result in approximately the same Phase
2 program stringency increase of about
16 percent compared to Phase 1 but
would do so two years earlier, in MY
2025 rather than in MY 2027. The
Alternative 4 phase in from 2021–2025
would be based on a year-over-year
increase in stringency of 3.5 percent, as
discussed below. While we believe the
proposed preferred alternative is
feasible in the time frame of this rule,
and that Alternative 4 could potentially
be feasible, the two phase-in schedules
differ in the required adoption rate of
advanced technologies for certain high
volume vehicle segments. The agencies’
analysis essentially shows that the
additional lead-time provided by the
preferred alternative would allow
manufacturers to more fully utilize
lower cost technologies thereby
reducing the adoption rate of more
advanced higher cost technologies such
as strong hybrids. As discussed in more
detail in C.8 below, both of the
considered phase-ins require
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2017
%
40
67
67
40
2018
%
60
67
67
60
2019
%
100
67
67
100
100
100
100
100
comparable penetration rates of several
non-hybrid technologies with some
approaching 100 percent penetration.
However, as discussed below, the
additional lead-time provided by
Alternative 3 would allow
manufacturers more flexibility to fully
utilize these non-hybrid technologies to
reduce the number of hybrids needed
compared to Alternative 4. Alternative 4
would additionally require significant
penetration of strong hybridization. We
request comments, additional
information, data, and feedback to
determine the extent to which such
adoption would be realistic within the
MY 2025 timeframe.
When considering potential Phase 2
standards, the agencies anticipate that
the technologies listed above that were
considered in Phase 1 will continue to
be available in the future if not already
applied under Phase 1 standards and
that additional technologies will also be
available:
• advanced engine improvements for
friction reduction and low friction
lubricants
• improved engine parasitics, including
fuel pumps, oil pumps, and coolant
pumps
• valvetrain variable lift and timing
• cylinder deactivation
• direct gasoline injection
• cooled exhaust gas recirculation
• turbo downsizing of gasoline engines
• Diesel engine efficiency
improvements
• downsizing of diesel engines
• 8-speed automatic transmissions
• electric power steering
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• high efficiency transmission gear
boxes and driveline
• further improvements in accessory
loads
• additional improvements in
aerodynamics and tire rolling
resistance
• low drag brakes
• mass reduction
• mild hybridization
• strong hybridization
Sections VI.C. and D below and
Section 2 of the Draft RIA provide a
detailed analysis of these and other
potential technologies for Phase 2,
including their feasibility, costs, and
effectiveness and projected application
rates for reducing fuel consumption and
CO2 emissions when utilized in HD
pickups and vans. Sections VI.C and D
and Section X also discuss the selection
of the proposed standards and the
alternatives considered.
In addition to EPA’s CO2 emission
standards and NHTSA’s fuel
consumption standards for HD pickups
and vans, EPA in Phase 1 also finalized
standards for two additional GHGs—
N2O and CH4, as well as standards for
air conditioning-related HFC emissions
in the Phase 1 rule. EPA is proposing to
continue these standards in Phase 2.
Also, consistent with CAA Section
202(a)(1), EPA finalized Phase 1
standards that apply to HD pickups and
vans in use and EPA is proposing in-use
standards for these vehicles in Phase 2.
All of the proposed standards for these
HD pickups and vans are discussed in
more detail below. Program flexibilities
and compliance provisions related to
the standards for HD pickups and vans
are discussed in Section VI.E.
A relatively small number of HD
pickups and vans are sold by vehicle
manufacturers as incomplete vehicles,
without the primary load-carrying
device or container attached. A sizeable
subset of these incomplete vehicles,
often called cab-chassis vehicles, are
sold by the vehicle manufacturers in
configurations with complete cabs and
many of the components that affect GHG
emissions and fuel consumption
identical to those on complete pickup
truck or van counterparts—including
engines, cabs, frames, transmissions,
axles, and wheels. The Phase 1 program
includes provisions that allow
manufacturers to include these
incomplete vehicles as well as some
Class 4 through 6 vehicles to be
regulated under the chassis-based HD
pickup and van program (i.e. subject to
the standards for HD pickups and vans),
rather than the vocational vehicle
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program.332 The agencies are proposing
to continue allowing such incomplete
vehicles the option of certifying under
either the heavy duty pickup and van
standards or the standards for
vocational vehicles.
Phase 1 also includes optional
compliance paths for spark-ignition
engines identical to engines used in
heavy-duty pickups and vans to comply
with 2b/3 standards. See 40 CFR
1037.150(m) and 49 CFR 535.5(a)(7).
Manufacturers sell such engines as
‘‘loose engines’’ or install these engines
in incomplete vehicles that are not cabcomplete vehicles. The agencies are not
proposing to retain the loose engine
provisions for Phase 2. These program
elements are discussed above in Section
V.E. on vocational vehicles and XIV.A.2
on engines.
NHTSA and EPA request comment on
all aspects of the proposed HD pickup
and van standards and program
elements described below and the
alternatives discussed in Section X.
(1) Vehicle-Based Standards
For Phase 1, EPA and NHTSA chose
to set vehicle-based standards whereby
the entire vehicle is chassis-tested. The
agencies propose to retain this approach
for Phase 2. About 90 percent of Class
2b and 3 vehicles are pickup trucks,
passenger vans, and work vans that are
sold by the original equipment
manufacturers as complete vehicles,
ready for use on the road. In addition,
most of these complete HD pickups and
vans are covered by CAA vehicle
emissions standards for criteria
pollutants (i.e., they are chassis tested
similar to light-duty), expressed in
grams per mile. This distinguishes this
category from other, larger heavy-duty
vehicles that typically have engines
covered by CAA engine emission
standards for criteria pollutants,
expressed in grams per brake
horsepower-hour. As a result, Class 2b
and 3 complete vehicles share both
substantive elements and a regulatory
structure much more in common with
light-duty trucks than with the other
heavy-duty vehicles.
Three of these features in common are
especially significant: (1) Over 95
percent of the HD pickups and vans sold
in the United States are produced by
Ford, General Motors, and Chrysler—
three companies with large light-duty
vehicle and light-duty truck sales in the
United States; (2) these companies
typically base their HD pickup and van
designs on higher sales volume lightduty truck platforms and technologies,
332 See 76 FR 57259–57260, September 15, 2011
and 78 FR 36374, June 17, 2013.
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often incorporating new light-duty truck
design features into HD pickups and
vans at their next design cycle, and (3)
at this time most complete HD pickups
and vans are certified to vehicle-based
rather than engine-based EPA criteria
pollutant and GHG standards. There is
also the potential for substantial GHG
and fuel consumption reductions from
vehicle design improvements beyond
engine changes (such as through
optimizing aerodynamics, weight, tires,
and accessories), and a single
manufacturer is generally responsible
for both engine and vehicle design. All
of these factors together suggest that it
is still appropriate and reasonable to
base standards on performance of the
vehicle as a whole, rather than to
establish separate engine and vehicle
GHG and fuel consumption standards,
as is being done for the other heavyduty categories. The chassis-based
standards approach for complete
vehicles was also consistent with NAS
recommendations and there was
consensus in the public comments on
the Phase 1 proposal supporting this
approach. For all of these reasons, the
agencies continue to believe that
establishing chassis-based standards for
Class 2b and 3 complete vehicles is
appropriate for Phase 2.
(a) Work-Based Attributes
In developing the Phase 1 HD
rulemaking, the agencies emphasized
creating a program structure that would
achieve reductions in fuel consumption
and GHGs based on how vehicles are
used and on the work they perform in
the real world. Work-based measures
such as payload and towing capability
are key among the things that
characterize differences in the design of
vehicles, as well as differences in how
the vehicles will be used. Vehicles in
the 2b and 3 categories have a wide
range of payload and towing capacities.
These work-based differences in design
and in-use operation are key factors in
evaluating technological improvements
for reducing CO2 emissions and fuel
consumption. Payload has a particularly
important impact on the test results for
HD pickup and van emissions and fuel
consumption, because testing under
existing EPA procedures for criteria
pollutants and the Phase 1 standards is
conducted with the vehicle loaded to
half of its payload capacity (rather than
to a flat 300 lb as in the light-duty
program), and the correlation between
test weight and fuel use is strong.
Towing, on the other hand, does not
directly factor into test weight as
nothing is towed during the test. Hence,
setting aside any interdependence
between towing capacity and payload,
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only the higher curb weight caused by
any heavier truck components would
play a role in affecting measured test
results. However towing capacity can be
a significant factor to consider because
HD pickup truck towing capacities can
be quite large, with a correspondingly
large effect on vehicle design.
We note too that, from a purchaser
perspective, payload and towing
capability typically play a greater role
than physical dimensions in influencing
purchaser decisions on which heavyduty vehicle to buy. For passenger vans,
seating capacity is of course a major
consideration, but this correlates closely
with payload weight.
For these reasons, EPA and NHTSA
set Phase 1 standards for HD pickups
and vans based on a ‘‘work factor’’
attribute that combines vehicle payload
capacity and vehicle towing capacity, in
lbs, with an additional fixed adjustment
for four-wheel drive (4wd) vehicles.
This adjustment accounts for the fact
that 4wd, critical to enabling many offroad heavy-duty work applications,
adds roughly 500 lb to the vehicle
weight. The work factor is calculated as
follows: 75 percent maximum payload +
25 percent of maximum towing + 375
lbs if 4wd. Under this approach, target
GHG and fuel consumption standards
are determined for each vehicle with a
unique work factor (analogous to a
target for each discrete vehicle footprint
in the light-duty vehicle rules). These
targets will then be production weighted
and summed to derive a manufacturer’s
annual fleet average standard for its
heavy-duty pickups and vans. There
was widespread support (and no
opposition) for the work factor-based
approach to standards and fleet average
approach to compliance expressed in
the comments we received on the Phase
1 rule. The agencies are proposing to
continue using the work factor attribute
for the Phase 2 standards and request
comments on continuing this approach.
Recognizing that towing is not
reflected in the certification test for
these vehicles, however, the agencies
are requesting comment with respect to
the treatment of towing in the work
factor, especially for diesel vehicles.
More specifically, does using the
existing work factor equation create an
inappropriate incentive for
manufacturers to provide more towing
capability than needed for some
operators, or a disincentive for
manufacturers to develop vehicles with
intermediate capability. In other words,
does it encourage ‘‘surplus’’ towing
capability that has no value to vehicle
owners and operators? We recognize
that some owners and operators do
actually use their vehicles to tow very
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heavy loads, and that some owners and
operators who rarely use their vehicles
to tow heavy loads nonetheless prefer to
own vehicles capable of doing so.
However, others may never tow such
heavy loads and purchase their vehicles
for other reasons, such as cargo capacity
or off-road capability. Some of these less
demanding (in terms of towing) users
may choose to purchase gasolinepowered vehicles that are typically less
expensive and have lower GCWR
values, an indicator of towing
capability. However, others could prefer
a diesel engine more powerful than
today’s gasoline engines but less
powerful than the typical diesel engines
found in 2b and 3 pickups today. In this
context, the agencies are considering
(but have not yet evaluated) four
possible changes to the work factor and
how it is applied. First, the agencies are
considering revising the work factor to
weight payload by 80 percent and
towing by 20 percent. Second, we are
considering capping the amount of
towing that could be credited in the
work factor. For example, the work
factors for all vehicles with towing
ratings above 15,000 lbs could be
calculated based on a towing rating of
15,000 lbs. It is important to be clear
that such a provision would not limit
the towing capability manufacturers
could provide, but would only impact
the extent to which the work factor
would ‘‘reward’’ towing capability.
Third, the agencies are considering
changing the shape of the standard
curve for diesel vehicles to become
more flat at very high work factors. A
flatter curve would mean that vehicles
with very high work factors would be
more similar to vehicles with lower
work factors than is the case for the
proposed curve. Thus, conceptually,
flattening the curves at the high end
might be appropriate if we were to
determine that these high work factor
vehicles actually operate in a manner
more like the vehicles with lower work
factors. For example, when not towing
and when not hauling a full payload,
heavy-duty pickup trucks with very
different work factors may actually be
performing the same amount of work.
Finally, we are considering having
different work factor formulas for
pickups and vans, and are also further
considering whether any of other
changes should be applied differently to
pickups than to vans. We welcome
comments on both the extent to which
surplus towing may be an issue and
whether any of the potential changes
discussed above would be appropriate.
Commenters supporting such changes
are encouraged to also address any
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potential accompanying changes. For
example, if we reweight the work factor,
would other changes to the coefficients
defining the target curves be important
to ensure that standards remain at the
maximum feasible levels. (Commenters
should, however, recognize that average
requirements will, in any event, depend
on fleet mix, and the agencies expect to
update estimates of future fleet mix
before issuing a final rule).
As noted in the Phase 1 rule, the
attribute-based CO2 and fuel
consumption standards are meant to be
as consistent as practicable from a
stringency perspective. Vehicles across
the entire range of the HD pickup and
van segment have their respective target
values for CO2 emissions and fuel
consumption, and therefore all HD
pickups and vans will be affected by the
standard. With this attribute-based
standards approach, EPA and NHTSA
believe there should be no significant
effect on the relative distribution of
vehicles with differing capabilities in
the fleet, which means that buyers
should still be able to purchase the
vehicle that meets their needs.
(b) Standards
The agencies are proposing Phase 2
standards based on analysis performed
to determine the appropriate HD pickup
and van Phase 2 standards and the most
appropriate phase in of those standards.
This analysis, described below and in
the Draft RIA, considered:
• Projections of future U.S. sales for HD
pickup and vans
• the estimates of corresponding CO2
emissions and fuel consumption for
these vehicles
• forecasts of manufacturers’ product
redesign schedules
• the technology available in new MY
2014 HD pickups and vans to specify
preexisting technology content to be
included in the analysis fleet (the fleet
of vehicles used as a starting point for
analysis) extending through MY 2030
• the estimated effectiveness, cost,
applicability, and availability of
technologies for HD pickup and vans
• manufacturers’ ability to use credit
carry-forward
• the levels of technology that are
projected to be added to the analysis
fleet through MY 2030 considering
improvements needed in order to
achieve compliance with the Phase 1
standards (thus defining the reference
fleet–i.e., under the No-Action
Alternative—relative to which to
measure incremental impacts of Phase
2 standards), and
• the levels of technology that are
projected to be added to the analysis
fleet through MY2030 considering
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further improvements needed in order
to achieve compliance with standards
defining each regulatory (action)
alternative for Phase 2.
Based on this analysis, EPA is
proposing CO2 attribute-based target
standards shown in Figure VI–3 and
Figure VI–4, and NHTSA is proposing
the equivalent attribute-based fuel
consumption target standards, also
shown in Figure VI–3 and Figure VI–4,
applicable in model year 2021–2027. As
shown in these tables, these standards
would be phased in year-by-year
commencing in MY 2021. The agencies
are not proposing to change the
standards for 2018–2020 and therefore
the standards would remain stable at the
MY 2018 Phase 1 levels for MYs 2019
and 2020. EISA requires four years of
lead-time and three years stability for
NHTSA standards and this period of
lead-time and stability for 2018–2020 is
consistent with the EISA requirements.
For MYs 2021–2027, the agencies are
proposing annual reductions in the
standards as the primary phase-in of the
Phase 2 standards. The proposed
standards become 16 percent more
stringent overall between MY 2020 and
MY 2027. This approach to the Phase 2
standards as a whole can be considered
a phase-in or implementation schedule
of the proposed MY 2027 standards
(which, as noted, would apply thereafter
unless and until amended).
For EPA, Section 202(a) provides the
Administrator with the authority to
establish standards, and to revise those
standards ‘‘from time to time,’’ thus
providing the Administrator with
considerable discretion in deciding
when to revise the Phase 1 MY 2018
standards. EISA requires that NHTSA
provide four full model years of
regulatory lead time and three full
model years of regulatory stability for its
fuel economy standards. See 49 U.S.C.
32902(k)(3). Consistent with these
authorities, the agencies are proposing
more stringent standards beginning with
MY 2021 that consider the level of
technology we predict can be applied to
new vehicles in the 2021 MY. EPA
believes the proposed Phase 2 standards
are consistent with CAA requirements
regarding lead-time, reasonable cost,
and feasibility, and safety. NHTSA
believes the proposed Phase 2 standards
are the maximum feasible under EISA.
Manufacturers in the HD pickup and
van market segment have relatively few
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vehicle lines and redesign cycles are
typically longer compared to light-duty
vehicles. Also, the timing of vehicle
redesigns differs among manufacturers.
To provide lead time needed to
accommodate these longer redesign
cycles, the proposed Phase 2 GHG
standards would not reach their highest
stringency until 2027. Although the
proposed standards would become more
stringent over time between MYs 2021
and 2027, the agencies expect
manufacturers will likely strive to make
improvements as part of planned
redesigns, such that some model years
will likely involve significant advances,
while other model years will likely
involve little change. The agencies also
expect manufacturers to use program
flexibilities (e.g., credit carry-forward
provisions and averaging, banking, and
trading provisions) to help balance
compliance costs over time (including
by allowing needed changes to align
with redesign schedules). The agencies
are proposing to provide stable
standards in MYs 2019–2020 in order to
provide necessary lead time for Phase 2.
However, for some manufacturers, the
transition to the Phase 2 standards may
begin earlier (e.g., as soon as MY 2017)
depending on their vehicle redesign
cycles. Although standards are not
proposed to change in MYs 2019–2020,
manufacturers may introduce additional
technologies in order to carry forward
corresponding improvements and
perhaps generate credits under the 5
year credit carry-forward provisions
established in Phase 1 and proposed to
continue for Phase 2. Sections VI.C. and
D below provides additional discussion
of vehicle redesign cycles and the
feasibility of the proposed standards.
While it is unlikely that there is a
phase-in approach that would equally
fit with all manufacturers’ unique
product redesign schedules, the
agencies recognize that there are other
ways the Phase 2 standards could be
phased in and request comments on
other possible approaches. One
alternative approach would be to phase
in the standards in a few step changes,
for example in MYs 2021, 2024 and
2027. Under this example, if the step
changes on the order of 5 percent, 10
percent, and 16 percent improvements
from the MY 2020 baseline in MYs
2021, 2024 and 2027 respectively, the
program would provide CO2 reductions
and fuel improvements roughly
equivalent to the proposed approach.
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Among the factors the agencies would
consider in assessing a different phasein than that proposed would be impacts
on lead time, feasibility, cost, CO2
reductions and fuel consumption
improvements. The agencies request
that commenters consider all of these
factors in their recommendations on
phase-in.
As in Phase 1, the proposed Phase 2
standards would be met on a
production-weighted fleet average basis.
No individual vehicle would have to
meet a particular fleet average standard.
Nor would all manufacturers have to
meet numerically identical fleet average
requirement. Rather, each manufacturer
would have its own unique fleet average
requirement based on the productionweighted average of the heavy duty
pickups and vans it chooses to produce.
Moreover, averaging, banking, and
trading provisions, just alluded to and
discussed further below, would provide
significant additional compliance
flexibility in implementing the
standards. It is important to note,
however, that while the standards
would differ numerically from
manufacturer to manufacturer, effective
stringency should be essentially the
same for each manufacturer.
Also, as with the Phase 1 standards,
the agencies are proposing separate
Phase 2 targets for gasoline-fueled (and
any other Otto-cycle) vehicles and
diesel-fueled (and any other dieselcycle) vehicles. The targets would be
used to determine the productionweighted fleet average standards that
apply to the combined diesel and
gasoline fleet of HD pickups and vans
produced by a manufacturer in each
model year. The above-proposed
stringency increase for Phase 2 applies
equally to the separate gasoline and
diesel targets. The agencies considered
different rates of increase for the
gasoline and diesel targets in order to
more equally balance compliance
burdens across manufacturers with
varying gasoline/diesel fleet mixes.
However, at least among major HD
pickup and van manufacturers, our
analysis suggests limited potential for
such optimization, especially
considering uncertainties involved with
manufacturers’ future fleet mix. The
agencies have thus maintained the
equivalent rates of stringency increase.
The agencies invite comment on this
element.
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Diesel Standards
6.94
700
650
600
5.94
550
5.44
500
4.94
450
4.44
400
~
6.44
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E
'"
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["
~
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0
u
350
3.44
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
5500
6000
6500
7000
Work Factor
Figure VI-3 EPA Proposed C02 Target Standards and NHTSA Proposed Fuel Consumption Target
Standards for Diesel HD Pickups and Vans
750
8.44
Gasoline Standards
7.94
700
"'
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7.44 ..9d
650
0
0
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6.94
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450
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400
4.44
350
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3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
5500
6000
6500
7000
Figure VI-4 EPA Proposed C02 Target Standards and NHTSA Proposed Fuel Consumption Target
Standards for Gasoline HD Pickups and Vans
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Described mathematically, EPA’s and
NHTSA’s proposed target standards are
defined by the following formulas:
EPA CO2 Target (g/mile) = [a × WF] +
b
Payload Capacity = GVWR (lb) ¥ Curb
Weight (lb)
xwd = 500 lb if the vehicle is equipped with
4wd, otherwise equals 0 lb.
Towing Capacity = GCWR (lb) ¥ GVWR (lb)
Coefficients a, b, c, and d are taken from
Table VI–2.
NHTSA Fuel Consumption Target
(gallons/100 miles) = [c × WF] + d
Where:
WF = Work Factor = [0.75 × (Payload
Capacity + xwd)] + [0.25 × Towing
Capacity]
TABLE VI–2—PROPOSED PHASE 2 COEFFICIENTS FOR HD PICKUP AND VAN TARGET STANDARDS
Model year
a
b
c
d
Diesel Vehicles
2018–2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
a
.......................................................................
0.0416
0.0004086
3.143
0.0406
0.0395
0.0386
0.0376
0.0367
0.0357
0.0348
312
304
297
289
282
275
268
0.0003988
0.0003880
0.0003792
0.0003694
0.0003605
0.0003507
0.0003418
3.065
2.986
2.917
2.839
2.770
2.701
2.633
0.044
339
0.0004951
3.815
0.0429
0.0418
0.0408
0.0398
0.0388
0.0378
0.0369
.........................................................................................
.........................................................................................
.........................................................................................
.........................................................................................
.........................................................................................
.........................................................................................
and later ..........................................................................
320
331
322
314
306
299
291
284
0.0004827
0.0004703
0.0004591
0.0004478
0.0004366
0.0004253
0.0004152
3.725
3.623
3.533
3.443
3.364
3.274
3.196
Gasoline Vehicles
2018–2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
a
.......................................................................
.........................................................................................
.........................................................................................
.........................................................................................
.........................................................................................
.........................................................................................
.........................................................................................
and later ..........................................................................
Note:
a Phase 1 primary phase-in coefficients. Alternative phase-in coefficients are different in MY2018 only.
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As noted above, the standards are not
proposed to change from the final Phase
1 standards for MYs 2018–2020. The
MY 2018–2020 standards are shown in
the Figures and tables above for
reference.
NHTSA and EPA have also analyzed
regulatory alternatives to the proposed
standards, as discussed in Sections VI.C
and D and Section X. below. The
agencies request comments on all of the
alternatives analyzed for the proposal,
but request comments on Alternative 4
in particular. The agencies believe
Alternative 4 has the potential to be the
maximum feasible alternative; however,
based on the evidence currently before
us, EPA and NHTSA have outstanding
questions regarding relative risks and
benefits of Alternative 4 due to the
timeframe envisioned by that
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alternative. Alternative 4 would provide
less lead time for the complete phase-in
of the proposed Phase 2 standards based
on an annual improvement of 3.5
percent per year in MYs 2021–2025
compared to the proposed Alternative 3
per year improvement of 2.5 percent in
MYs 2021–2027. The CO2 and fuel
consumption attribute-based target
standards for the Alternative 4 phase-in
are shown in Figure VI–5 and Figure
VI–6 below. As the target curves for
Alternative 4 show in comparison to the
target curves shown above for the
proposed Alternative 3, the final Phase
2 standards would result in essentially
the same level of stringency under
either alternative. However, the Phase 2
standards would be fully implemented
two years earlier, in MY 2025, under
Alternative 4. The agencies are seriously
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considering whether this Alternative 4
(i.e., the proposed standards but with
two years less lead-time) would be
realistic and feasible, as described in
Sections VI.C and D, Section X, and in
the Draft RIA Chapter 11. Alternative 4
is predicated on shortened lead time
that would result in accelerated and in
some cases higher adoption rates of the
same technologies on which the
proposed Alternative 3 is predicated.
The agencies request comments, data,
and information that would help inform
determination of the maximum feasible
(for NHTSA) and appropriate (for EPA)
stringency for HD pickups and vans and
are particularly interested in
information and data related to the
expected adoption rates of different
emerging technologies, such as mild and
strong hybridization.
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Diese I Standards
6.94
700
650
6.44
~ 600
5.94
E
~
550
5.44
500
4.94
450
4.44
400
~
3.94
~
N
0
u
350
3.44
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
5500
6000
6500
7000
Work factor
Figure VI-5 Alternative 4 EPA C0 2 Target Standards and NHTSA Fuel Consumption Target Standards for
Diesel HD Pickups and Vans
750 .
8.44
Gasoline Standards
7.94
700
"'
.E
8
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650
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..9d
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0
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600
a.
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0
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450
4.94
400
4.44
350
3.94
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
5500
6000
6500
7000
Figure VI-6 Alternative 4 EPA C0 2 Target Standards and NHTSA Fuel Consumption Target Standards for
Gasoline HD Pickups and Vans
As with Phase 1 standards, to
calculate a manufacturer’s HD pickup
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and van fleet average standard, the
agencies are proposing that separate
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target curves be used for gasoline and
diesel vehicles. The agencies’ proposed
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Federal Register / Vol. 80, No. 133 / Monday, July 13, 2015 / Proposed Rules
standards result in approximately 16
percent reductions in CO2 and fuel
consumption for both diesel and
gasoline vehicles relative to the MY
2018 Phase 1 standards for HD pickup
trucks and vans. These target reductions
are based on the agencies’ assessment of
the feasibility of incorporating
technologies (which differ for gasoline
and diesel powertrains) in the 2021–
2027 model years, and on the
differences in relative efficiency in the
current gasoline and diesel vehicles.
The agencies generally prefer to set
standards that do not distinguish
between fuel types where technological
or market-based reasons do not strongly
argue otherwise. However, as with
Phase 1, we continue to believe that
fundamental differences between spark
ignition and compression ignition
engines warrant unique fuel standards,
which is also important in ensuring that
our program maintains product choices
available to vehicle buyers. In fact,
gasoline and diesel fuel behave so
differently in the internal combustion
engine that they have historically
required unique test procedures,
emission control technologies and
emission standards. These technological
differences between gasoline and diesel
engines for GHGs and fuel consumption
exist presently and will continue to
exist after Phase 1 and through Phase 2
until advanced research evolves the
gasoline fueled engine to diesel-like
efficiencies. This will require significant
technological breakthroughs currently
in early stages of research such as
homogeneous charge compression
ignition (HCCI) or similar concepts.
Because these technologies are still in
the early research stages, we believe the
proposed separate fuel type standards
are appropriate in the timeframe of this
rule to protect for the availability of
both gasoline and diesel engines and
will result in roughly equivalent
redesign burdens for engines of both
fuel types as evidenced by feasibility
and cost analysis in RIA Chapter 10.
The agencies request comment on the
level of stringency of the proposed
standards, the continued separate
targets for gasoline and diesel HD
pickups and vans, and the continued
use of the work-based attribute
approach described above.
The proposed NHTSA fuel
consumption target curves and EPA
GHG target curves are equivalent. The
agencies established the target curves
using the direct relationship between
fuel consumption and CO2 using
conversion factors of 8,887 g CO2/gallon
for gasoline and 10,180 g CO2/gallon for
diesel fuel.
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It is expected that measured
performance values for CO2 will
generally be equivalent to fuel
consumption. However, Phase 1
established a provision that EPA is not
proposing to change for Phase 2 that
allows manufacturers, if they choose, to
use CO2 credits to help demonstrate
compliance with N2O and CH4
emissions standards, by expressing any
N2O and CH4 under compliance in
terms of their CO2-equivalent and
applying CO2 credits as needed. For test
families that do not use this compliance
alternative, the measured performance
values for CO2 and fuel consumption
will be equivalent because the same test
runs and measurement data will be used
to determine both values, and calculated
fuel consumption will be based on the
same conversion factors that are used to
establish the relationship between the
CO2 and fuel consumption target curves
(8,887 g CO2/gallon for gasoline and
10,180 g CO2/gallon for diesel fuel). For
manufacturers that choose to use EPA
provision for CO2 credit use in
demonstrating N2O and CH4
compliance, compliance with the CO2
standard will not be directly equivalent
to compliance with the NHTSA fuel
consumption standard.
(2) What are the HD Pickup and Van
Test Cycles and Procedures?
The Phase 1 program established
testing procedures for HD pickups and
vans and NHTSA and EPA are not
proposing to change these testing
protocols. The vehicles would continue
to be tested using the same heavy-duty
chassis test procedures currently used
by EPA for measuring criteria pollutant
emissions from these vehicles, but with
the addition of the highway fuel
economy test cycle (HFET). These test
procedures are used by manufacturers
for certification and emissions
compliance demonstrations and by the
agencies for compliance verification and
enforcement. Although the highway
cycle driving pattern is identical to that
of the light-duty test, other test
parameters for running the HFET, such
as test vehicle loaded weight, are
identical to those used in running the
current EPA Federal Test Procedure for
complete heavy-duty vehicles. Please
see Section II.C (2) of the Phase 1
preamble (76 FR 57166) for a discussion
of how HD pickups and vans would be
tested.
One item that the agencies are
considering to change is how vehicles
are categorized into test weight bins.
Under the current test procedures,
vehicles are tested at 500 lb increments
of inertial weight classes when testing at
or above 5500 lbs test weight. For
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example, all vehicles having a
calculated test weight basis of 11,251 to
11,750 lbs would be tested 11,500 lbs
(i.e., the midpoint of the range).
However, for some vehicles, the
existence of these bins and the large
intervals between bins may reduce or
eliminate the incentive for mass
reduction for some vehicles, as a vehicle
may require significant mass reduction
before it could switch from one test
weight bin to the next lower bin. For
other vehicles, these bins may unduly
reward relatively small reductions of
vehicle mass, as a vehicle’s mass may be
only slightly greater than that needed to
be assigned a 500-pound lighter inertia
weight class. For example, for a vehicle
with a calculated test weight basis of
11,700 lbs, a manufacturer would
receive no regulatory benefit for
reducing the vehicle weight by 400 lbs,
because the vehicle would stay within
the same weight bracket. The agencies
do recognize that the test weight bins
allow for some reduction in testing
burden as many vehicles can be grouped
together under a single test. For Phase
2, the agencies seek comment on
whether the test weight bins should be
changed in order to allow for more
realistic testing of HD pickups and vans
and better capture of the improvements
due to mass reduction. Some example
changes could include reducing the five
hundred pound interval between bins to
smaller intervals similar to those
allowed for vehicles tested below 5,500
lbs. test weight, or allowing any test
weight value that is not fixed to a
particular test weight bin. The latter
scenario would still allow some
grouping of vehicles to reduce test
burden, and the agencies also seek
comment on how vehicles would be
grouped and how the test weight of this
group of vehicles should be selected.
We further seek comment as to
whether there may be a more
appropriate method such as allowing
analytical adjustment of the CO2 levels
and fuel consumption within a vehicle
weight class to more precisely account
for the individual vehicle models
performance. For example, could an
equation like the one specified in 40
CFR 1037.104(g) for analytically
adjusting CO2 emissions be used (note
that this is proposed to be redesignated
as 40 CFR 86.1819–14(g)). The agencies
are specifically considering an approach
in which vehicles are tested in the same
way with the same test weights, but
manufacturers have the option to either
accept the emission results as provided
under the current regulations, or choose
to adjust the emissions based on the
actual test weight basis (actual curb plus
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half payload) instead of the equivalent
test weight for the 500 test weight
interval. Should the agencies finalize
this as an option, manufacturers
choosing to adjust their emissions
would be required to do so for all of
their vehicles, and not just for those
with test weights below the midpoint of
the range.
(3) Fleet Average Standards
NHTSA and EPA are proposing to
retain the fleet average standards
approach finalized in the Phase 1 rule
and structurally similar to light-duty
Corporate Average Fuel Economy
(CAFE) and GHG standards. The fleet
average standard for a manufacturer is a
production-weighted average of the
work factor-based targets assigned to
unique vehicle configurations within
each model type produced by the
manufacturer in a model year. Each
manufacturer would continue to have
an average GHG requirement and an
average fuel consumption requirement
unique to its new HD pickup and van
fleet in each model year, depending on
the characteristics (payload, towing, and
drive type) of the vehicle models
produced by that manufacturer, and on
the U.S.-directed production volume of
each of those models in that model year.
Vehicle models with larger payload/
towing capacities and/or four-wheel
drive have individual targets at
numerically higher CO2 and fuel
consumption levels than less capable
vehicles, as discussed in Section
VI.B(1).
The fleet average standard with which
the manufacturer must comply would
continue to be based on its final
production figures for the model year,
and thus a final assessment of
compliance would occur after
production for the model year ends. The
assessment of compliance also must
consider the manufacturer’s use of
carry-forward and carry-back credit
provisions included in the averaging,
banking, and trading program. Because
compliance with the fleet average
standards depends on actual test group
production volumes, it is not possible to
determine compliance at the time the
manufacturer applies for and receives
an (initial) EPA certificate of conformity
for a test group. Instead, at certification
the manufacturer would demonstrate a
level of performance for vehicles in the
test group, and make a good faith
demonstration that its fleet, regrouped
by unique vehicle configurations within
each model type, is expected to comply
with its fleet average standard when the
model year is over. EPA will issue a
certificate for the vehicles covered by
the test group based on this
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demonstration, and will include a
condition in the certificate that if the
manufacturer does not comply with the
fleet average, then production vehicles
from that test group will be treated as
not covered by the certificate to the
extent needed to bring the
manufacturer’s fleet average into
compliance. As in the parallel program
for light-duty vehicles, additional
‘‘model type’’ testing will be conducted
by the manufacturer over the course of
the model year to supplement the initial
test group data. The emissions and fuel
consumption levels of the test vehicles
will be used to calculate the productionweighted fleet averages for the
manufacturer, after application of the
appropriate deterioration factor to each
result to obtain a full useful life value.
Please see Section II.C (3)(a) of the
Phase 1 preamble (76 FR 57167) for
further discussion of the fleet average
approach for HD pickups and vans.
(4) In-Use Standards
Section 202(a)(1) of the CAA specifies
that EPA set emissions standards that
are applicable for the useful life of the
vehicle. EPA is proposing to continue
the in-use standards approach for
individual vehicles that EPA finalized
for the Phase 1 program. NHTSA did not
adopt Phase 1 in-use standards and is
not proposing in-use standards for
Phase 2. For the EPA program,
compliance with the in-use standard for
individual vehicles and vehicle models
does not impact compliance with the
fleet average standard, which will be
based on the production-weighted
average of the new vehicles. Vehicles
that fail to meet their in-use emission
standards would be subject to recall to
correct the noncompliance. NHTSA also
proposes to adopt EPA’s useful life
requirements to ensure manufacturers
consider in the design process the need
for fuel efficiency standards to apply for
the same duration and mileage as EPA
standards. NHTSA seeks comment on
the appropriateness of seeking civil
penalties for failure to comply with its
fuel efficiency standards in these
instances. NHTSA would limit such
penalties to situations in which it
determined that the vehicle or engine
manufacturer failed to comply with the
standards.
As with Phase 1, EPA proposes that
the in-use Phase 2 standards for HD
pickups and vans be established by
adding an adjustment factor to the full
useful life emissions used to calculate
the GHG fleet average. EPA proposes
that each model’s in-use CO2 standard
be the model-specific level used in
calculating the fleet average, plus 10
percent. No adverse comments were
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received on this provision during the
Phase 1 rulemaking. Please see Section
II.C (3)(b) of the Phase 1 preamble (76
FR 57167) for further discussion of inuse standards for HD pickups and vans.
For Phase 1, EPA aligned the useful
life for GHG emissions with the useful
life that was in place for criteria
pollutants: 11 years or 120,000 miles,
whichever occurs first (40 CFR 86.1805–
04(a)). Since the Phase 1 rule was
finalized, EPA updated the useful life
for criteria pollutants as part of the Tier
3 rulemaking.333 The new useful life
implemented for Tier 3 is 150,000 miles
or 15 years, whichever occurs first. EPA
and NHTSA propose that the useful life
for GHG emissions and fuel
consumption also be updated to 150,000
miles/15 years starting in MY 2021
when the Phase 2 standards begin so
that the useful life remains aligned for
GHG and criteria pollutant standards
long term. With the relatively flat
deterioration generally associated with
CO2 and fuel consumption and the
proposed in-use standard adjustment
factor discussed above, the agencies do
not believe the proposed change in
useful life would significantly affect the
feasibility of the proposed Phase 2
standards.334 The agencies requests
comments on the proposed change to
useful life.
(5) Other GHG Standards for HD
Pickups and Vans
This section addresses greenhouse
gases other than CO2. Note that since
these are greenhouse gases not directly
related to fuel consumption, NHTSA
does not have equivalent standards.
(a) Nitrous Oxide (N2O) and Methane
(CH4)
In the Phase 1 rule, EPA established
emissions standards for HD pickups and
vans for both nitrous oxide (N2O) and
methane (CH4). Similar to the CO2
standard approach, the N2O and CH4
emission levels of a vehicle are based on
a composite of the light-duty FTP and
HFET cycles with the same 55 percent
city weighting and 45 percent highway
weighting. The N2O and CH4 standards
were both set by EPA at 0.05 g/mile.
Unlike the CO2 standards, averaging
between vehicles is not allowed. The
standards are designed to prevent
increases in N2O and CH4 emissions
333 79 FR 23492, April 28, 2014 and 40 CFR
86.1805–17.
334 As discussed below in Section VI.D.1., EPA
and NHTSA are proposing an adjustment factor of
1.25 for banked credits that are carried over from
Phase 1 to Phase 2. The useful life is factored into
the credits calculation and without the adjustment
factor the change in useful life would effectively
result in a discount of those carry-over credits.
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from current levels, i.e., a nobacksliding standard. EPA is not
proposing to change the N2O or CH4
standards or related provisions
established in the Phase 1 rule. Please
see Phase 1 preamble Section II.E. (76
FR 57188–57193) for additional
discussion of N2O and CH4 emissions
and standards.
Across both current gasoline- and
diesel-fueled heavy-duty vehicle
designs, emissions of CH4 and N2O are
relatively low and the intent of the cap
standards is to ensure that future
vehicle technologies or fuels do not
result in an increase in these emissions.
Given the global warning potential
(GWP) of CH4, the 0.05 g/mile cap
standard is equivalent to about 1.25 g/
mile CO2, which is much less than 1
percent of the overall GHG emissions of
most HD pickups and vans.335 The
effectiveness of oxidation of CH4 using
a three-way or diesel oxidation catalyst
is limited by the activation energy,
which tends to be higher where the
number of carbon atoms in the
hydrocarbon molecule is low and thus
CH4 is very stable. At this time we are
not aware of any technologies beyond
the already present catalyst systems
which are highly effective at oxidizing
most hydrocarbon species for gasoline
and diesel fueled engines that would
further lower the activation energy
across the catalyst or increase the energy
content of the exhaust (without further
increasing fuel consumption and CO2
emissions) to further reduce CH4
emissions at the tailpipe. We note that
we are not aware of any new
technologies that would allow us to
adopt more stringent CH4 and N2O
standards at this time. The CH4 standard
remains an important backstop to
prevent future increases in CH4
emissions.
N2O is emitted from gasoline and
diesel vehicles mainly during specific
catalyst temperature conditions
conducive to N2O formation. The 0.05 g/
mile standard, which translates to a
CO2-equivalent value of 14.9 g/mile,
ensures that systems are not designed in
a way that emphasizes efficient NOX
control while allowing the formation of
significant quantities of N2O. The Phase
1 N2O standard of 0.05 g/mile for
pickups and vans was finalized
knowing that it is more stringent than
the Phase 1 N2O engine standard of 0.10
g/hp-hr, currently being revaluated as
discussed in Section II.D.3. EPA
continues to believe that the 0.05 g/mile
standard provides the necessary
assurance that N2O will not significantly
335 N
2O
has a GWP of 298 and CH4 has a GWP
of 25 according to the IPCC AR4.
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increase, given the mix of gasoline and
diesel fueled engines in this market and
the upcoming implementation of the
light-duty and heavy-duty (up to 14,000
lbs. GVWR) Tier 3 NOX standards. EPA
knows of no technologies that would
lower N2O emissions beyond the control
provided by the precise emissions
control systems already being
implemented to meet EPA’s criteria
pollutant standards. Therefore, EPA
continues to believe the 0.05 g/mile N2O
standard remains appropriate.
If a manufacturer is unable to meet
the N2O or CH4 cap standards, the EPA
program allows the manufacturer to
comply using CO2 credits. In other
words, a manufacturer may offset any
N2O or CH4 emissions above the
standard by taking steps to further
reduce CO2. A manufacturer choosing
this option would use GWPs to convert
its measured N2O and CH4 test results
that are in excess of the applicable
standards into CO2eq to determine the
amount of CO2 credits required. For
example, a manufacturer would use 25
Mg of positive CO2 credits to offset 1 Mg
of negative CH4 credits or use 298 Mg
of positive CO2 credits to offset 1 Mg of
negative N2O credits.336 By using the
GWP of N2O and CH4, the approach
recognizes the inter-correlation of these
compounds in impacting global
warming and is environmentally neutral
for demonstrating compliance with the
individual emissions caps. Because fuel
conversion manufacturers certifying
under 40 CFR part 85, subpart F, do not
participate in ABT programs, EPA
included in the Phase 1 rule a
compliance option for fuel conversion
manufacturers to comply with the N2O
and CH4 standards that is similar to the
credit program described above. See 76
FR 57192. The compliance option will
allow conversion manufacturers, on an
individual engine family basis, to
convert CO2 over compliance into CO2
equivalents (CO2 eq) of N2O and/or CH4
that can be subtracted from the CH4 and
N2O measured values to demonstrate
compliance with CH4 and/or N2O
standards. EPA did not include similar
provisions allowing over compliance
with the N2O or CH4 standards to serve
as a means to generate CO2 credits
because the CH4 and N2O standards are
cap standards representing levels that
all but the worst vehicles should already
be well below. Allowing credit
generation against such cap standard
would provide a windfall credit without
any true GHG reduction. EPA proposes
to maintain these provisions for Phase 2
as they provide important flexibility
336 N
has a GWP of 298 and CH4 has a GWP
of 25 according to the IPCC AR4.
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40343
without reducing the overall GHG
benefits of the program.
EPA is requesting comment on
updating GWPs used in the calculation
of credits discussed above. Please see
the full discussion of this issue and
request for comments provided in
Sections II.D and XI.D.
(b) Air Conditioning Related Emissions
Air conditioning systems contribute
to GHG emissions in two ways—direct
emissions through refrigerant leakage
and indirect exhaust emissions due to
the extra load on the vehicle’s engine to
provide power to the air conditioning
system. HFC refrigerants, which are
powerful GHG pollutants, can leak from
the A/C system. This includes the direct
leakage of refrigerant as well as the
subsequent leakage associated with
maintenance and servicing, and with
disposal at the end of the vehicle’s
life.337 Currently, the most commonly
used refrigerant in automotive
applications—R134a, has a high GWP.
Due to the high GWP of R134a, a small
leakage of the refrigerant has a much
greater global warming impact than a
similar amount of emissions of CO2 or
other mobile source GHGs.
In Phase 1, EPA finalized low leakage
requirement for all air conditioning
systems installed in 2014 model year
and later HDVs, with the exception of
Class 2b–8 vocational vehicles. As
discussed in Section V.B.3, EPA is
proposing to extend leakage standards
to vocational vehicles for Phase 2. For
air conditioning systems with a
refrigerant capacity greater than 733
grams, EPA finalized a leakage standard
which is a ‘‘percent refrigerant leakage
per year’’ to assure that high-quality,
low-leakage components are used in
each air conditioning system design.
EPA finalized a standard of 1.50 percent
leakage per year for heavy-duty pickup
trucks and vans and Class 7 and 8
tractors. See Section II.E.5. of Phase 1
preamble (76 FR 57194–57195) for
further discussion of the A/C leakage
standard.
In addition to use of leak-tight
components in air conditioning system
design, manufacturers could also
decrease the global warming impact of
leakage emissions by adopting systems
that use alternative, lower global
warming potential (GWP) refrigerants, to
replace the refrigerant most commonly
used today, HFC–134a (R–134a). The
potential use of alternative refrigerants
in HD vehicles and EPA’s proposed
revisions to 40 CFR 1037.115 so that use
337 The U.S. EPA has reclamation requirements
for refrigerants in place under Title VI of the Clean
Air Act.
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of certain lower GWP refrigerants would
cause an air conditioning system in a
HD vehicle to be deemed to comply
with the low leakage standard is
discussed in Section I.F. above.
In addition to direct emissions from
refrigerant leakage, air conditioning
systems also create indirect exhaust
emissions due to the extra load on the
vehicle’s engine to provide power to the
air conditioning system. These indirect
emissions are in the form of the
additional CO2 emitted from the engine
when A/C is being used due to the
added loads. Unlike direct emissions
which tend to be a set annual leak rate
not directly tied to usage, indirect
emissions are fully a function of A/C
usage. These indirect CO2 emissions are
associated with air conditioner
efficiency, since (as just noted) air
conditioners create load on the engine.
See 74 FR 49529. In Phase 1, the
agencies did not set air conditioning
efficiency standards for vocational
vehicles, combination tractors, or heavyduty pickup trucks and vans. The CO2
emissions due to air conditioning
systems in these heavy-duty vehicles
were estimated to be minimal compared
to their overall emissions of CO2. This
continues to be the case. For this reason,
EPA is not proposing to establish
standards for A/C efficiency for Phase 2.
NHTSA and EPA request comments
on all aspects of the proposed HD
pickup and van standards and program
elements described in this section.
C. Feasibility of Pickup and Van
Standards
EPCA and EISA require NHTSA to
‘‘implement a commercial medium- and
heavy-duty on-highway vehicle and
work truck fuel efficiency improvement
program designed to achieve the
maximum feasible improvement’’ and to
establish corresponding fuel
consumption standards ‘‘that are
appropriate, cost-effective, and
technologically feasible.’’ 338 Section
202(a)(1) and (2) of the Clean Air Act
require EPA to establish standards for
emissions of pollutants from new motor
vehicles and engines which emissions
cause or contribute to air pollution
which may reasonably be anticipated to
endanger public health or welfare,
which include GHGs. See section I.E.
above. Under section 202(a)(1) and (2),
EPA considers such issues as
technology effectiveness, its cost (both
per vehicle, per manufacturer, and per
consumer), the lead time necessary to
implement the technology, and based on
this the feasibility and practicability of
potential standards; the impacts of
338 49
U.S.C. 32902(k)(2).
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potential standards on emissions
reductions of both GHGs and non-GHG
emissions; the impacts of standards on
oil conservation and energy security; the
impacts of standards on fuel savings by
customers; the impacts of standards on
the truck industry; other energy
impacts; as well as other relevant factors
such as impacts on safety.
As part of the feasibility analysis of
potential standards for HD pickups and
vans, the agencies have applied DOT’s
CAFE Compliance and Effects Modeling
System (sometimes referred to as ‘‘the
CAFE model’’ or ‘‘the Volpe model’’),
which DOT’s Volpe National
Transportation Systems Center (Volpe
Center) developed, maintains, and
applies to support NHTSA CAFE
analyses and rulemakings.339 The
agencies used this model to determine
the range of stringencies that might be
achievable through the use of
technology that is projected to be
available in the Phase 2 time frame.
From these runs, the agencies identified
the stringency level that would be
technology-forcing (i.e. reflect levels of
stringency based on performance of
merging as well as currently available
control technologies), but leave
manufacturers the flexibility to adopt
varying technology paths for
compliance and allow adequate lead
time to develop, test, and deploy the
range of technologies.
As noted in Section I and discussed
further below, the analysis considers
two reference cases for HD pickups and
vans, a flat baseline (designated
Alternative 1a) where no improvements
are modeled beyond those needed to
meet Phase 1 standards and a dynamic
baseline (designated Alternative 1b)
where certain cost-effective technologies
(i.e., those that payback within a 6
month period) are assumed to be
applied by manufacturers to improve
fuel efficiency beyond the Phase 1
requirements in the absence of new
Phase 2 standards. NHTSA considered
its primary analysis to be based on the
more dynamic baseline whereas EPA
considered both reference cases. As
shown below and in Sections VII
339 The CAFE model has been under ongoing
development, application, review, and refinement
since 2002. In five rulemakings subject to public
review and comment, DOT has used the model to
estimate the potential impacts of new CAFE
standards. The model has also been subject to
formal review outside the rulemaking process, and
DOT anticipates comments on the model in mid2015 as part of a broader report under development
by the National Academy of Sciences (NAS). The
model, underlying source code, inputs, and outputs
are available at NHTSA’s Web site, and some
outside organizations are making use of the model.
The agency anticipates that stakeholders will have
comments on recent model changes made to
accommodate standards for HD pickups and vans.
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through X, using the two different
reference cases has little impact on the
results of the analysis and would not
lead to a different conclusion regarding
the appropriateness of the proposed
standards. As such, the use of different
reference cases corroborates the results
of the overall analysis.
The proposed phase-in schedule of
reduction of 2.5 percent per year in fuel
consumption and CO2 levels relative to
the 2018 MY Phase 1 standard level,
starting in MY 2021 and extending
through MY 2027, was chosen to strike
a balance between meaningful
reductions in the early years and
providing manufacturers with needed
lead time via a gradually accelerating
ramp-up of technology penetration. By
expressing the phase-in in terms of
increasing year to year stringency for
each manufacturer, while also providing
for credit generation and use (including
averaging, carry-forward, and carryback), we believe our proposed program
would afford manufacturers substantial
flexibility to satisfy the proposed phasein through a variety of pathways: the
gradual application of technologies
across the fleet, greater application
levels on only a portion of the fleet, and
a sufficiently broad set of available
technologies to account for the variety
of current technology deployment
among manufacturers and the lowestcost compliance paths available to each.
We decided to propose a phased
implementation schedule that would be
appropriate to accommodate
manufacturers’ redesign workload and
product schedules, especially in light of
this sector’s limited product offerings 340
and long product cycles. We did not
estimate the cost of implementing the
proposed standards immediately in
2021 without a phase-in, but we
qualitatively assessed it to be somewhat
higher than the cost of the phase-in we
are proposing, due to the workload and
product cycle disruptions it could
cause, and also due to manufacturers’
resulting need to develop some of these
technologies for heavy-duty
applications sooner than or
simultaneously with light-duty
development efforts. See 75 FR 25451
(May 7, 2010) (documenting types of
drastic cost increases associated with
trying to accelerate redesign schedules
and concluding that ‘‘[w]e believe that
it would be an inefficient use of societal
resources to incur such costs when they
can be obtained much more cost
effectively just one year later’’). On the
other hand, waiting until 2027 before
applying any new standards could miss
340 Manufacturers generally have only one pickup
platform and one van platform in this segment.
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the opportunity to achieve meaningful
and cost-effective early reductions not
requiring a major product redesign.
The agencies believe that Alternative
4 has the potential to be the maximum
feasible alternative, however, the
agencies are uncertain that the potential
technologies and market penetration
rates included in Alternative 4 are
currently technologically feasible.
Alternative 4 would ultimately reach
the same levels of stringency as
Alternative 3, but would do so with less
lead time. This could require the
application of a somewhat different (and
possibly broader) application of the
projected technologies depending on
product redesign cycles. We expect, in
fact, that some of these technologies
may well prove feasible and costeffective in this timeframe, and may
even become technologies of choice for
individual manufacturers.
Additionally, Alternative 3 provides
two more years of phase-in than
Alternative 4, which eases compliance
burden by having more vehicle
redesigns and lower stringency during
the phase-in period. Historically, the
vehicles in this segment are typically
only redesigned every 6–10 years, so
many of the vehicles may not even be
redesigned during the timeframe of the
stringency increase. In this case, a
manufacturer must either make up for
any vehicle that falls short of its target
through some combination of early
compliance, overcompliance, credit
carry-forward and carry-back, and
redesigning vehicles more frequently.
Each of these will increase technology
costs to the manufacturers and vehicle
purchasers, and early redesigns will
significantly increases capital costs and
product development costs. Also, the
longer phase-in time for Alternative 3
means that any manufacturer will have
a slightly lower target to meet from
2021–2026 than for the shorter phase-in
of Alternative 4, though by 2027 the
manufacturers will have the same target
in either alternative.
Alternative 4 is projected to be met
using a significantly higher degree of
hybridization including the use of more
strong hybrids, compared to the
proposed preferred Alternative 3. In
order to comply with a 3.5 percent per
year increase in stringency over MYs
2021–2025, manufacturers would need
to adopt more technology compared to
the 2.5 percent per year increase in
stringency over MYs 2021–2027. The
two years of additional lead time
provided by Alternative 3 to achieve the
proposed final standards reduces the
potential number of strong hybrids
projected to be used by allowing for
other more cost effective technologies to
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be more fully utilized across the fleet.
Alternative 4 is also projected to result
in higher costs and risks than the
proposed Alternative 3 due to the
projected higher technology adoption
rates with the additional emission
reductions and fuel savings
predominately occurring only during
the program phase-in period. The
agencies’ analysis is discussed in detail
below.
In some cases, the model selects
strong hybrids as a more cost effective
technology over certain other
technologies including stop-start and
mild hybrid. In other words, strong
hybrids are not a technology of last
resort in the analysis. The agencies
believe it is technologically feasible to
apply hybridization to HD pickups and
vans in the lead time provided.
However, strong hybrids present
challenges in this market segment
compared to light-duty where there are
several strong hybrids already available.
The agencies do not believe that at this
stage there is enough information about
the viability of strong hybrid technology
in this vehicle segment to assume that
they can be a part of large-volume
deployment strategies for regulated
manufacturers. For example, we believe
that hybrid electric technology could
provide significant GHG and fuel
consumption benefits, but we recognize
that there is uncertainty at this time
over the real world effectiveness of
these systems in HD pickups and vans,
and over customer acceptance of the
technology for vehicles with high
GCWR towing large loads. Further, the
development, design, and tooling effort
needed to apply this technology to a
vehicle model is quite large, and might
not be cost-effective due to the small
sales volumes relative to the light-duty
sector. Additionally, the analysis does
not project that engines would be downsized in conjunction with hybridization
for HD pickups and vans due to the
importance pickup trucks buyers place
on engine horsepower and torque
necessary to meet towing objectives.
Therefore, with no change projected for
engine size, the strong hybrid costs do
not include costs for engine changes. In
light-duty, the use of smaller engines
facilitates much of a hybrid’s benefit.
Due to these considerations, the
agencies have conducted a sensitivity
analysis that is based on the use of no
strong hybrids. The results of the
analysis are also discussed below. The
analysis indicates that there would be a
technology pathway that would allow
manufacturers to meet both the
proposed preferred Alternatives 3 and
Alternative 4 without the use of strong
hybrids. However, the analysis indicates
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that costs would be higher and the cost
effectiveness would be lower under the
no strong hybrid approach, especially
for Alternative 4, which provides less
lead time to manufacturers.
We also considered proposing less
stringent standards under which
manufacturers could comply by
deploying a more limited set of
technologies. However, our assessment
concluded with a high degree of
confidence that the technologies on
which the proposed standards are
premised would be available at
reasonable cost in the 2021–2027
timeframe, and that the phase-in and
other flexibility provisions allow for
their application in a very cost-effective
manner, as discussed in this section
below.
More difficult to characterize is the
degree to which more or less stringent
standards might be appropriate because
of under- or over-estimating the costs or
effectiveness of the technologies whose
performance is the basis of the proposed
standards. For the most part, these
technologies have not yet been applied
to HD pickups and vans, even on a
limited basis. We are therefore relying to
some degree on engineering judgment in
predicting their effectiveness. Even so,
we believe that we have applied this
judgment using the best information
available, primarily from a NHTSA
contracted study at SwRI 341 and our
recent rulemaking on light-duty vehicle
GHGs and fuel economy, and have
generated a robust set of effectiveness
values. Chapter 10 of the draft RIA
provides a detailed description of the
CAFE Model and the analysis performed
for the proposal.
(1) Regulatory Alternatives Considered
by the Agencies
As discussed above, the agencies are
proposing standards defined by fuel
consumption and GHG targets that
continue through model year 2020
unchanged from model year 2018, and
then increase in stringency at an annual
rate of 2.5 percent through model year
2027. In addition to this regulatory
alternative, the agencies also considered
a no-action alternative under which
standards remain unchanged after
model year 2018, as well as three other
alternatives, defined by annual
stringency increases of 2.0 percent, 3.5
percent, and 4.0 percent during 2021–
2025. For each of the ‘‘action
alternatives’’ (i.e., those involving
stringency increases beyond the no341 Reinhart, T.E. (June 2015). Commercial
Medium- and Heavy-Duty Truck Fuel Efficiency
Technology Study—Report #1. (Report No. DOT HS
812 146). Washington, DC: National Highway
Traffic Safety Administration.
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both DOT’s CAFE model and EPA’s
MOVES model. The agencies used
EPA’s MOVES model to estimate fuel
consumption and emissions impacts for
tractor-trailers (including the engine
that powers the tractor), and vocational
vehicles (including the engine that
powers the vehicle). Additional
calculations were performed to
determine corresponding monetized
program costs and benefits. For heavyduty pickups and vans, the agencies
performed complementary analyses,
which we refer to as ‘‘Method A’’ and
‘‘Method B’’. In Method A, the CAFE
model was used to project a pathway
the industry could use to comply with
TABLE VI–3 REGULATORY
each regulatory alternative and the
ALTERNATIVES
estimated effects on fuel consumption,
emissions, benefits and costs. In Method
Annual stringency
B, the CAFE model was used to project
increase
Regulatory
a pathway the industry could use to
alternative
2019– 2021– 2026– comply with each regulatory alternative,
2020
2025
2027 along with resultant impacts on per
vehicle costs, and the MOVES model
1: No Action ............ None None None was used to calculate corresponding
2: 2.0%/y ................. None
2.0% None
changes in total fuel consumption and
3: 2.5%/y ................. None
2.5%
2.5%
4: 3.5%/y ................. None
3.5% None annual emissions. Additional
5: 4.0%/y ................. None
4.0% None calculations were performed to
determine corresponding monetized
program costs and benefits. NHTSA
(2) DOT CAFE Model
considered Method A as its central
DOT developed the CAFE model in
analysis and Method B as a
2002 to support the 2003 issuance of
supplemental analysis. EPA considered
CAFE standards for MYs 2005–2007
the results of both methods. The
light trucks. DOT has since significantly agencies concluded that both methods
expanded and refined the model, and
led the agencies to the same conclusions
has applied the model to support every
and the same selection of the proposed
ensuing CAFE rulemaking for both lightstandards. See Section VII for additional
duty and heavy-duty. For this analysis,
discussion of these two methods.
the model was reconfigured to use the
As a starting point, the model makes
work based attribute metric of ‘‘work
use of an input file defining the analysis
factor’’ established in the Phase 1 rule
fleet—that is, a set of specific vehicle
instead of the light duty ‘‘footprint’’
models (e.g., Ford F250) and model
attribute metric.
Although the CAFE model can also be configurations (e.g., Ford F250 with 6.2liter V8 engine, 4WD, and 6-speed
used for more aggregated analysis (e.g.,
manual transmission) estimated or
involving ‘‘representative vehicles’’,
assumed to be produced by each
single-year snapshots, etc.), NHTSA
manufacturer in each model year to be
designed the model with a view toward
included in the analysis. The analysis
(a) detailed simulation of
manufacturers’ potential actions given a fleet includes key engineering attributes
defined set of standards, followed by (b) (e.g., curb weight, payload and towing
capacities, dimensions, presence of
calculation of resultant impacts and
economic costs and benefits. The model various fuel-saving technologies) of each
vehicle model, engine, and
is intended to describe actions
transmissions, along with estimates or
manufacturers could take in light of
assumptions of future production
defined standards and other input
volumes. It also specifies the extent to
assumptions and estimates, not to
which specific vehicle models share
predict actions manufacturers will take
engines, transmissions, and vehicle
in light of competing product and
platforms, and describes each
market interests (e.g. engine power,
manufacturer’s estimated or assumed
customer features, technology
product cadence (i.e., timing for
acceptance, etc.).
For these rules, the agencies
freshening and redesigning different
conducted coordinated and
vehicles and platforms). This input file
complementary analyses using two
also specifies a payback period used to
analytical methods for the heavy-duty
estimate the potential that each
pickup and van segment by employing
manufacturer might apply technology to
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action alternative), the annual
stringency increases are applied as
follows: An annual stringency increase
of r is applied by multiplying the model
year 2020 target functions (identical to
those applicable to model year 2018) by
1¥r to define the model year 2021
target functions, multiplying the model
year 2021 target functions by 1¥r to
define the model year 2022 target
functions, continuing through 2025 for
all alternatives except for the preferred
Alternative 3 which extends through
2027. In summary, the agencies have
considered the following five regulatory
alternatives in Table VI–3.
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improve fuel economy beyond levels
required by standards. The file used for
this analysis was created from 2014
manufacturer compliance reports for the
base sales and technology information,
and a future fleet projection created
from a combination of data from a sales
forecast that the agencies purchased
from IHS Automotive and total volumes
class 2b and 3 fleet volumes from 2014
AEO Reference Case. A complete
description of the future fleet is
available in Draft RIA Chapter 10.
A second input file to the model
contains a variety of contextual
estimates and assumptions. Some of
these inputs, such as future fuel prices
and vehicle survival and mileage
accumulation (versus vehicle age), are
relevant to estimating manufacturers’
potential application of fuel-saving
technologies. Some others, such as fuel
density and carbon content, vehicular
and upstream emission factors, the
social cost of carbon dioxide emissions,
and the discount rate, are relevant to
calculating physical and economic
impacts of manufacturers’ application of
fuel-saving technologies.
A third input file contains estimates
and assumptions regarding the future
applicability, availability, efficacy, and
cost of various fuel-saving technologies.
Efficacy is expressed in terms of the
percentage reduction in fuel
consumption, cost is expressed in
dollars, and both efficacy and cost are
expressed on an incremental basis (i.e.,
estimates for more advanced
technologies are specified as increments
beyond less advanced technologies).
The input file also includes ‘‘synergy
factors’’ used to make adjustments
accounting for the potential that some
combinations of technologies may result
fuel savings or costs different from those
indicated by incremental values.
Finally, a fourth model input file
specifies standards to be evaluated.
Standards are defined on a year-by-year
basis separately for each regulatory class
(passenger cars, light trucks, and heavyduty pickups and vans). Regulatory
alternatives are specified as discrete
scenarios, with one scenario defining
the no-action alternative or ‘‘baseline’’,
all other scenarios defining regulatory
alternatives to be evaluated relative to
that no-action alternative.
Given these inputs, the model
estimates each manufacturer’s potential
year-by-year application of fuel-saving
technologies to each engine,
transmission, and vehicle. Subject to a
range of engineering and planningrelated constraints (e.g., secondary axle
disconnect can’t be applied to 2-wheel
drive vehicles, many major technologies
can only be applied practicably as part
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of a vehicle redesign, and applied
technologies carry forward between
model years), the model attempts to
apply technology to each manufacturer’s
fleet in a manner that minimizes
‘‘effective costs’’ (accounting, in
particular, for technology costs and
avoided fuel outlays), continuing to add
improvements as long as doing so
would help toward compliance with
specified standards or would produce
fuel savings that ‘‘pay back’’ at least as
quickly as specified in the input file
mentioned above.
After estimating the extent to which
each manufacturer might add fuelsaving technologies under each
specified regulatory alternative, the
model calculates a range of physical
impacts, such as changes in highway
travel (i.e., VMT), changes in fleetwide
fuel consumption, changes in highway
fatalities, and changes in vehicular and
upstream greenhouse gas and criteria
pollutant emissions. The model also
applies a variety of input estimates and
assumptions to calculate economic costs
and benefits to vehicle owners and
society, based on these physical
impacts.
Since the manufacturers of HD
pickups and vans generally only have
one basic pickup truck and van with
different versions ((i.e., different
wheelbases, cab sizes, two-wheel drive,
four-wheel drive, etc.) there exists less
flexibility than in the light-duty fleet to
coordinate model improvements over
several years. As such, the CAFE model
allows changes to the HD pickups and
vans to meet new standards according to
predefined redesign cycles included as
a model input. As noted above, the
opportunities for large-scale changes
(e.g., new engines, transmission, vehicle
body and mass) thus occur less
frequently than in the light-duty fleet,
typically at spans of eight or more years
for this analysis. However,
opportunities for gradual improvements
not necessarily linked to large scale
changes can occur between the redesign
cycles (i.e., model refresh). Examples of
such improvements are upgrades to an
existing vehicle model’s engine,
transmission and aftertreatment
systems. Given the long redesign cycle
used in this analysis and the
understanding with respect to where the
different manufacturers are in that
cycle, the agencies have initially
determined that the full implementation
of the proposed standards would be
feasible and appropriate by the 2027
model year.
This analysis reflects several changes
made to the model since 2012, when
NHTSA used the model to estimate the
effects, costs, and benefits of final CAFE
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standards for light-duty vehicles
produced during MYs 2017–2021, and
augural standards for MYs 2022–2025.
Some of these changes specifically
enable analysis of potential fuel
consumption standards (and, hence,
CO2 emissions standards harmonized
with fuel consumption standards) for
heavy-duty pickups and vans; other
changes implement more general
improvements to the model. Key
changes include the following:
• Changes to accommodate standards
for heavy-duty pickups and vans,
including attribute-based standards
involving targets that vary with ‘‘work
factor’’.
• Explicit calculation of test weight,
taking into account test weight ‘‘bins’’
and differences in the definition of test
weight for light-duty vehicles (curb
weight plus 300 pound) and heavy-duty
pickups and vans (average of GVWR and
curb weight).
• Procedures to estimate increases in
payload when curb weight is reduced,
increases in towing capacity if GVWR is
reduced, and calculation procedures to
correspondingly update calculated work
factors.
• Inclusion of technologies not
included in prior analyses.
• Changes to enable more explicit
accounting for shared vehicle platforms
and adoption and ‘‘inheritance’’ of
major engine changes.
• Expansion of the Monte Carlo
simulation procedures used to perform
probabilistic uncertainty analysis.
In addition to the inputs summarized
above, the agencies’ analysis of potential
standards for HD pickups and vans
makes use of a range of other estimates
and assumptions specified as inputs to
the CAFE modeling system. Some
significant inputs (e.g., estimates of
future fuel prices) also applicable to
other HD segments are discussed below
in Section IX. Others more specific to
the analysis of HD pickups and vans are
listed as follows, with additional details
in section D:
• Vehicle survival and mileage
accumulation
• VMT rebound
• On-road ‘‘gap’’ in fuel consumption
• Fleet population profile
• Past fuel consumption levels
• Long-term fuel consumption levels
• Payback period
• Coefficients for fatality calculations
• Compliance credits carried-forward
• Emission factors for non-CO2
emissions
• Refueling time benefits
• External Costs of travel
• Ownership and operating costs
The CAFE model and its
modifications for this rulemaking are
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described in more detail in Section VI.
below as well as the Draft RIA Chapter
10.
(3) How Did the Agencies Develop the
Analysis Fleet
In order to more accurately estimate
the impacts of potential standards, the
agencies are estimating the composition
of the future vehicle fleet. Projections of
the future vehicle fleet are also done for
both vocational vehicles and tractors.
The procedure for pickups and vans is
more detailed, though, in order to show
the differences for each manufacturer in
the segment. Doing so enables
estimation of the extent to which each
manufacturer may need to add
technology in response to a given series
of attribute-based standards, accounting
for the mix and fuel consumption of
vehicles in each manufacturer’s
regulated fleet. The agencies create an
analysis fleet in order to track the
volumes and types of fuel economyimproving and CO2-reducing
technologies that are already present in
the existing fleet of Class 2b and 3
vehicles. This aspect of the analysis
fleet helps to keep the CAFE model from
adding technologies to vehicles that
already have these technologies, which
would result in ‘‘double counting’’ of
technologies’ costs and benefits. An
additional step involved projecting the
fleet sales into MYs 2019–2030. This
represents the fleet volumes that the
agencies believe would exist in MYs
2019–2030. The CAFE model considers
the actual redesign years of each vehicle
platform for each manufacturer. Due to
credit banking, some manufacturers may
not need to add technology to comply
with the standards until later model
years, which may be after the
rulemaking period. Therefore, it is
necessary to run the model until all of
the vehicle technology changes have
stabilized.
Most of the information about the
vehicles that make up the 2014 analysis
fleet was gathered from the 2014 PreModel Year Reports submitted to EPA
by the manufacturers under Phase 1 of
Fuel Efficiency and GHG Emission
Program for Medium- and Heavy-Duty
Trucks, MYs 2014–2018. The major
manufacturers of class 2b and class 3
trucks (Chrysler, Ford and GM) were
asked to voluntarily submit updates to
their Pre-Model Year Reports. Updated
data were provided by Chrysler and GM.
The agencies used these updated data in
constructing the analysis fleet for these
manufacturers. The agencies agreed to
treat this information as Confidential
Business Information (CBI) until the
publication of the proposed rule. This
information can be made public at this
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time because by now all MY2014
vehicle models have been produced,
which makes data about them
essentially public information.
In addition to information about each
vehicle, the agencies need additional
information about the fuel economyimproving/CO2-reducing technologies
already on those vehicles in order to
assess how much and which
technologies to apply to determine a
path toward future compliance. To
correctly account for the cost and
effectiveness of adding technologies, it
is necessary to know the technology
penetration in the existing vehicle fleet.
Otherwise, ‘‘double-counting’’ of
technology could occur. Thus, the
agencies augmented this information
with publicly-available data that
include more complete technology
descriptions, e.g. for specific engines
and transmissions.
The analysis fleet also requires
projections of sales volumes for the
years of the rulemaking analysis. The
agencies relied on the MY 2014 premodel-year compliance submissions
from manufacturers to provide sales
volumes at the model level based on the
level of disaggregation in which the
models appear in the compliance data.
However, the agencies only use these
reported volumes without adjustment
for MY 2014. For all future model years,
we combine the manufacturer
submissions with sales projections from
the 2014 Annual Energy Outlook
Reference Case and IHS Automotive to
determine model variant level sales
volumes in future years.
For more detail on how the analysis
fleet and sales volume projections were
developed, please see Section D below
as well as the draft RIA Chapter 10.
(4) What Technologies Did the Agencies
Consider
The agencies considered over 35
vehicle technologies that manufacturers
could use to improve the fuel
consumption and reduce CO2 emissions
of their vehicles during MYs 2021–2027.
The majority of the technologies
described in this section are readily
available, well known and proven in
other vehicle sectors, and could be
incorporated into vehicles once
production decisions are made. Other
technologies considered may not
currently be in production, but are
beyond the research phase and under
development, and are expected to be in
production in highway vehicles over the
next few years. These are technologies
that are capable of achieving significant
improvements in fuel economy and
reductions in CO2 emissions, at
reasonable costs. The agencies did not
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consider technologies in the research
stage because there is insufficient time
for such technologies to move from
research to production during the model
years covered by this proposed action.
However, we are considering and seek
comment on advanced technology
credits to encourage the development of
such technologies, as discussed below
in Section VI.E.
The technologies considered in the
agencies’ analysis are briefly described
below. They fall into five broad
categories: Engine technologies,
transmission technologies, vehicle
technologies, electrification/accessory
technologies, and hybrid technologies.
In this class of trucks and vans, diesel
engines are installed in about half of all
vehicles. The buyer’s decision to
purchase a diesel versus gasoline engine
depends on several factors including
initial purchase price, fuel operating
costs, durability, towing capability and
payload capacity amongst other reasons.
As discussed in IV.B. above, the
agencies generally prefer to set
standards that do not distinguish
between fuel types where technological
or market-based reasons do not strongly
argue otherwise. However, as with
Phase 1, we continue to believe that
fundamental differences between spark
ignition and compression ignition
engines warrant unique fuel standards,
which is also important in ensuring that
our program maintains product choices
available to vehicle buyers. Therefore,
we are proposing separate standards for
gasoline and diesel vehicles and in the
context of our technology discussion for
heavy-duty pickups and vans, we are
treating gasoline and diesel engines
separately so each has a set of baseline
technologies. We discuss performance
improvements in terms of changes to
those baseline engines. Our cost and
inventory estimates contained
elsewhere reflect the current fleet
baseline with an appropriate mix of
gasoline and diesel engines. Note that
we are not basing the proposed
standards on a targeted switch in the
mix of diesel and gasoline vehicles. We
believe our proposed standards require
similar levels of technology
development and cost for both diesel
and gasoline vehicles. Hence the
proposed program is not intended to
force, nor discourage, changes in a
manufacturer’s fleet mix between
gasoline and diesel vehicles. Types of
engine technologies that improve fuel
efficiency and reduce CO2 emissions
include the following:
• Low-friction lubricants—Low
viscosity and advanced low friction
lubricant oils are now available with
improved performance and better
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lubrication. If manufacturers choose to
make use of these lubricants, they
would need to make engine changes and
possibly conduct durability testing to
accommodate the low-friction
lubricants.
• Reduction of engine friction
losses—Can be achieved through lowtension piston rings, roller cam
followers, improved material coatings,
more optimal thermal management,
piston surface treatments, and other
improvements in the design of engine
components and subsystems that
improve engine operation.
• Reduction of engine parasitic
demand—Mechanical engine load
reduction can be achieved by variabledisplacement oil pumps, higherefficiency direct injection fuel pumps,
and variable speed/displacement
coolant pumps.
• Cylinder deactivation—Deactivates
the intake and exhaust valves and
prevents fuel injection into some
cylinders during light-load operation.
The engine runs temporarily as though
it were a smaller engine which
substantially reduces pumping losses.
• Variable valve timing—Alters the
timing of the intake valve, exhaust
valve, or both, primarily to reduce
pumping losses, increase specific
power, and control residual gases.
• Variable valve lift—Alters the
intake valve lift in order to reduce
pumping losses and more efficiently
ingest air.
• Stoichiometric gasoline directinjection technology—Injects fuel at
high pressure directly into the
combustion chamber to improve cooling
of the air/fuel charge within the
cylinder, which allows for higher
compression ratios and increased
thermodynamic efficiency.
• Cooled exhaust gas recirculation—
Technology that conceptually involves
utilizing EGR as a charge diluent for
controlling combustion temperatures
and cooling the EGR prior to its
introduction to the combustion system.
• Turbocharging and downsizing—
Technology approach that conceptually
involves decreasing the displacement
and cylinder count to improve
efficiency when not demanding regular
high loads and adding a turbocharger to
recover any loss to the original larger
engine peak operating power. This
technology was limited in this analysis
to vehicles that are not expected to
operate at high trailer towing levels and
instead are more akin to duty cycles of
light duty (i.e. V6 vans).
• Lean-burn combustion—Concept
that gasoline engines that are normally
stoichiometric mainly for emission
reasons can run lean over a range of
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operating conditions and utilize diesel
like aftertreatment systems to control
NOX. For this analysis, we determined
that the modal operation nature of this
technology to currently only be
beneficial at light loads would not be
appropriate for a heavy duty application
purchased specifically for its high work
and load capability.
• Diesel engine improvements and
diesel aftertreatment improvements—
Improved turbocharger, EGR systems,
and advanced timing can provide more
efficient combustion and, hence, lower
fuel consumption. Aftertreatment
systems are a relatively new technology
on diesel vehicles and, as such,
improvements are expected in coming
years that allow the effectiveness of
these systems to improve while
reducing the fuel and reductant
demands of current systems.
Types of transmission technologies
considered include:
• Eight-speed automatic
transmissions—The gear span, gear
ratios, and control system are optimized
for a broader range of efficient engine
operating conditions.
• High efficiency transmission—
Significant reduction of internal
parasitic losses such as pumps gear
bands, etc.
• Driveline friction reduction—
Reduction in the driveline friction from
improvements to bearings, seals and
other machining tolerances in the axles
and transfer cases.
• Secondary axle disconnect—
Disconnecting of some rotating
components in the front axle on 4wd
vehicles when the secondary axle is not
needed for traction.
Types of vehicle technologies
considered include:
• Low-rolling-resistance tires—Have
characteristics that reduce frictional
losses associated with the energy
dissipated in the deformation of the
tires under load, therefore improving
fuel efficiency and reducing CO2
emissions.
• Aerodynamic drag reduction—is
achieved by changing vehicle shape or
reducing frontal area, including skirts,
air dams, underbody covers, and more
aerodynamic side view mirrors.
• Mass reduction and material
substitution—Mass reduction
encompasses a variety of techniques
ranging from improved design and
better component integration to
application of lighter and higherstrength materials. Mass reduction is
further compounded by reductions in
engine power and ancillary systems
(transmission, steering, brakes,
suspension, etc.). The agencies
recognize there is a range of diversity
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and complexity for mass reduction and
material substitution technologies and
there are many techniques that
automotive suppliers and manufacturers
are using to achieve the levels of this
technology that the agencies have
modeled in our analysis for this
program.
Types of electrification/accessory and
hybrid technologies considered include:
• Electric power steering—Are
electrically-assisted steering systems
that have advantages over traditional
hydraulic power steering because it
replaces a continuously operated
hydraulic pump, thereby reducing
parasitic losses from the accessory
drive.
• Improved accessories—May include
high efficiency alternators, electrically
driven (i.e., on-demand) water pumps
and cooling fans. This excludes other
electrical accessories such as electric oil
pumps and electrically driven air
conditioner compressors.
• Mild hybrid—A small, enginedriven (through a belt or other
mechanism) electric motor/generator/
battery combination to enable features
such as start-stop, energy recovery, and
launch assist.
• Strong hybrid—A powerful electric
motor/generator/battery system coupled
to the powertrain to enable features
such as start-stop, and significant levels
of launch assist, electric operation, and
brake energy recovery. For HD pickups
and vans, the engine coupled with the
strong hybrid system would remain
unchanged in power and torque to
ensure vehicle performance at all times,
even if the hybrid battery is depleted.
• Air Conditioner Systems—These
technologies include improved hoses,
connectors and seals for leakage control.
They also include improved
compressors, expansion valves, heat
exchangers and the control of these
components for the purposes of
improving tailpipe CO2 emissions as a
result of A/C use.342
(5) How Did the Agencies Determine the
Costs and Effectiveness of Each of These
Technologies
Building on the technical analysis
underlying the 2017–2025 MY lightduty vehicle rule, the 2014–2018 MY
heavy-duty vehicle rule, and the 2015
NHTSA Technology Study, the agencies
took a fresh look at technology cost and
effectiveness values for purposes of this
proposal. For costs, the agencies
reconsidered both the direct (or ‘‘piece’’)
costs and indirect costs of individual
components of technologies. For the
342 See Draft RIA Chapter 2.3 for more detailed
technology descriptions.
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direct costs, the agencies followed a bill
of materials (BOM) approach employed
by the agencies in the light-duty rule as
well as referencing costs from the 2014–
2018 MY heavy-duty vehicle rule and a
new cost survey performed by Tetra
Tech in 2014.
For two technologies, stoichiometric
gasoline direct injection (SGDI) and
turbocharging with engine downsizing,
the agencies relied to the extent possible
on the available tear-down data and
scaling methodologies used in EPA’s
ongoing study with FEV, Incorporated.
This study consists of complete system
tear-down to evaluate technologies
down to the nuts and bolts to arrive at
very detailed estimates of the costs
associated with manufacturing them.343
For the other technologies,
considering all sources of information
and using the BOM approach, the
agencies worked together intensively to
determine component costs for each of
the technologies and build up the costs
accordingly. Where estimates differ
between sources, we have used
engineering judgment to arrive at what
we believe to be the best cost estimate
available today, and explained the basis
for that exercise of judgment.
Once costs were determined, they
were adjusted to ensure that they were
all expressed in 2012 dollars (see
Section IX.B.1.e of this preamble), and
indirect costs were accounted for using
a methodology consistent with the new
ICM approach developed by EPA and
used in the Phase 1 rule, and the 2012–
2016 and 2017–2025 light-duty rules.
NHTSA and EPA also reconsidered how
costs should be adjusted by modifying
or scaling content assumptions to
account for differences across the range
of vehicle sizes and functional
requirements, and adjusted the
associated material cost impacts to
account for the revised content. We
present the individual technology costs
used in this analysis in Chapter 2.12 of
the Draft RIA.
Regarding estimates for technology
effectiveness, the agencies used the
estimates from the 2014 Southwest
Research Institute study as a baseline,
which was designed specifically to
inform this rulemaking. In addition, the
agencies used 2017–2025 light-duty rule
as a reference, and adjusted these
estimates as appropriate, taking into
account the unique requirement of the
heavy-duty test cycles to test at curb
weight plus half payload versus the
light-duty requirement of curb plus 300
343 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, ‘‘Draft
Report—Light-Duty Technology Cost Analysis Pilot
Study,’’ Contract No. EP–C–07–069, Work
Assignment 1–3, September 3, 2009.
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lb. The adjustments were made on an
individual technology basis by assessing
the specific impact of the added load on
each technology when compared to the
use of the technology on a light-duty
vehicle. The agencies also considered
other sources such as the 2010 NAS
Report, recent CAFE compliance data,
and confidential manufacturer estimates
of technology effectiveness. The
agencies reviewed effectiveness
information from the multiple sources
for each technology and ensured that
such effectiveness estimates were based
on technology hardware consistent with
the BOM components used to estimate
costs. Together, the agencies compared
the multiple estimates and assessed
their validity, taking care to ensure that
common BOM definitions and other
vehicle attributes such as performance
and drivability were taken into account.
The agencies note that the
effectiveness values estimated for the
technologies may represent average
values applied to the baseline fleet
described earlier, and do not reflect the
potentially limitless spectrum of
possible values that could result from
adding the technology to different
vehicles. For example, while the
agencies have estimated an effectiveness
of 0.5 percent for low friction lubricants,
each vehicle could have a unique
effectiveness estimate depending on the
baseline vehicle’s oil viscosity rating.
Similarly, the reduction in rolling
resistance (and thus the improvement in
fuel efficiency and the reduction in CO2
emissions) due to the application of LRR
tires depends not only on the unique
characteristics of the tires originally on
the vehicle, but on the unique
characteristics of the tires being applied,
characteristics which must be balanced
between fuel efficiency, safety, and
performance. Aerodynamic drag
reduction is much the same—it can
improve fuel efficiency and reduce CO2
emissions, but it is also highly
dependent on vehicle-specific
functional objectives. For purposes of
this proposed rule, the agencies believe
that employing average values for
technology effectiveness estimates is an
appropriate way of recognizing the
potential variation in the specific
benefits that individual manufacturers
(and individual vehicles) might obtain
from adding a fuel-saving technology.
The following contains a description
of technologies the agencies considered
in the analysis for this proposal.
(a) Engine Technologies
The agencies reviewed the engine
technology estimates used in the 2017–
2025 light-duty rule, the 2014–2018
heavy-duty rule, and the 2015 NHTSA
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Technology Study. In doing so the
agencies reconsidered all available
sources and updated the estimates as
appropriate. The section below
describes both diesel and gasoline
engine technologies considered for this
program.
(i) Low Friction Lubricants
One of the most basic methods of
reducing fuel consumption in both
gasoline and diesel engines is the use of
lower viscosity engine lubricants. More
advanced multi-viscosity engine oils are
available today with improved
performance in a wider temperature
band and with better lubricating
properties. This can be accomplished by
changes to the oil base stock (e.g.,
switching engine lubricants from a
Group I base oils to lower-friction, lower
viscosity Group III synthetic) and
through changes to lubricant additive
packages (e.g., friction modifiers and
viscosity improvers). The use of 5W–30
motor oil is now widespread and auto
manufacturers are introducing the use of
even lower viscosity oils, such as 5W–
20 and 0W–20, to improve cold-flow
properties and reduce cold start friction.
However, in some cases, changes to the
crankshaft, rod and main bearings and
changes to the mechanical tolerances of
engine components may be required. In
all cases, durability testing would be
required to ensure that durability is not
compromised. The shift to lower
viscosity and lower friction lubricants
will also improve the effectiveness of
valvetrain technologies such as cylinder
deactivation, which rely on a minimum
oil temperature (viscosity) for operation.
(ii) Engine Friction Reduction
In addition to low friction lubricants,
manufacturers can also reduce friction
and improve fuel consumption by
improving the design of both diesel and
gasoline engine components and
subsystems. Approximately 10 percent
of the energy consumed by a vehicle is
lost to friction, and just over half is due
to frictional losses within the engine.344
Examples include improvements in lowtension piston rings, piston skirt design,
roller cam followers, improved
crankshaft design and bearings, material
coatings, material substitution, more
optimal thermal management, and
piston and cylinder surface treatments.
344 ‘‘Impact of Friction Reduction Technologies
on Fuel Economy,’’ Fenske, G. Presented at the
March 2009 Chicago Chapter Meeting of the
‘Society of Tribologists and Lubricated Engineers’
Meeting, March 18th, 2009. Available at: https://
www.chicagostle.org/program/2008–2009/
Impact%20of%20Friction%20Reduction
%20Technologies%20on%20Fuel%20Economy
%20-%20with%20VGs%20removed.pdf (last
accessed July 9, 2009).
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Additionally, as computer-aided
modeling software continues to
improve, more opportunities for
evolutionary friction reductions may
become available. All reciprocating and
rotating components in the engine are
potential candidates for friction
reduction, and minute improvements in
several components can add up to a
measurable fuel efficiency
improvement.
(iii) Engine Parasitic Demand Reduction
In addition to physical engine friction
reduction, manufacturers can reduce the
mechanical load on the engine from
parasitics, such as oil, fuel, and coolant
pumps. The high-pressure fuel pumps
of direct-injection gasoline and diesel
engines have particularly high demand.
Example improvements include variable
speed or variable displacement water
pumps, variable displacement oil
pumps, more efficient high pressure fuel
pumps, valvetrain upgrades and
shutting off piston cooling when not
needed.
(iv) Coupled Cam Phasing
Valvetrains with coupled (or
coordinated) cam phasing can modify
the timing of both the inlet valves and
the exhaust valves an equal amount by
phasing the camshaft of an overhead
valve engine.345 For overhead valve
engines, which have only one camshaft
to actuate both inlet and exhaust valves,
couple cam phasing is the only variable
valve timing implementation option
available and requires only one cam
phaser.346
(v) Cylinder Deactivation
In conventional spark-ignited engines
throttling the airflow controls engine
torque output. At partial loads,
efficiency can be improved by using
cylinder deactivation instead of
throttling. Cylinder deactivation can
improve engine efficiency by disabling
or deactivating (usually) half of the
cylinders when the load is less than half
of the engine’s total torque capability—
the valves are kept closed, and no fuel
is injected—as a result, the trapped air
345 Although couple cam phasing appears only in
the single overhead cam and overhead valve
branches of the decision tree, it is noted that a
single phaser with a secondary chain drive would
allow couple cam phasing to be applied to direct
overhead cam engines. Since this would potentially
be adopted on a limited number of direct overhead
cam engines NHTSA did not include it in that
branch of the decision tree.
346 It is also noted that coaxial camshaft
developments would allow other variable valve
timing options to be applied to overhead valve
engines. However, since they would potentially be
adopted on a limited number of overhead valve
engines, NHTSA did not include them in the
decision tree.
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within the deactivated cylinders is
simply compressed and expanded as an
air spring, with reduced friction and
heat losses. The active cylinders
combust at almost double the load
required if all of the cylinders were
operating. Pumping losses are
significantly reduced as long as the
engine is operated in this ‘‘partcylinder’’ mode.
Cylinder deactivation control strategy
relies on setting maximum manifold
absolute pressures or predicted torque
within a range in which it can
deactivate the cylinders. Noise and
vibration issues reduce the operating
range to which cylinder deactivation is
allowed, although manufacturers are
exploring vehicle changes that enable
increasing the amount of time that
cylinder deactivation might be suitable.
Some manufacturers may choose to
adopt active engine mounts and/or
active noise cancellations systems to
address Noise Vibration and Harshness
(NVH) concerns and to allow a greater
operating range of activation.
Cylinder deactivation has seen a
recent resurgence thanks to better
valvetrain designs and engine controls.
General Motors and Chrysler Group
have incorporated cylinder deactivation
across a substantial portion of their V8powered lineups.
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(vi) Stoichiometric Gasoline Direct
Injection
SGDI engines inject fuel at high
pressure directly into the combustion
chamber (rather than the intake port in
port fuel injection). SGDI requires
changes to the injector design, an
additional high pressure fuel pump,
new fuel rails to handle the higher fuel
pressures and changes to the cylinder
head and piston crown design. Direct
injection of the fuel into the cylinder
improves cooling of the air/fuel charge
within the cylinder, which allows for
higher compression ratios and increased
thermodynamic efficiency without the
onset of combustion knock. Recent
injector design advances, improved
electronic engine management systems
and the introduction of multiple
injection events per cylinder firing cycle
promote better mixing of the air and
fuel, enhance combustion rates, increase
residual exhaust gas tolerance and
improve cold start emissions. SGDI
engines achieve higher power density
and match well with other technologies,
such as boosting and variable valvetrain
designs.
Several manufacturers have recently
introduced vehicles with SGDI engines,
including GM and Ford and have
announced their plans to increase
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dramatically the number of SGDI
engines in their portfolios.
(vii) Turbocharging and Downsizing
The specific power of a naturally
aspirated engine is primarily limited by
the rate at which the engine is able to
draw air into the combustion chambers.
Turbocharging and supercharging
(grouped together here as boosting) are
two methods to increase the intake
manifold pressure and cylinder chargeair mass above naturally aspirated
levels. Boosting increases the airflow
into the engine, thus increasing the
specific power level, and with it the
ability to reduce engine displacement
while maintaining performance. This
effectively reduces the pumping losses
at lighter loads in comparison to a
larger, naturally aspirated engine.
Almost every major manufacturer
currently markets a vehicle with some
form of boosting. While boosting has
been a common practice for increasing
performance for several decades,
turbocharging has considerable
potential to improve fuel economy and
reduce CO2 emissions when the engine
displacement is also reduced. Specific
power levels for a boosted engine often
exceed 100 hp/L, compared to average
naturally aspirated engine power
densities of roughly 70 hp/L. As a
result, engines can be downsized
roughly 30 percent or higher while
maintaining similar peak output levels.
In the last decade, improvements to
turbocharger turbine and compressor
design have improved their reliability
and performance across the entire
engine operating range. New variable
geometry turbines and ball-bearing
center cartridges allow faster
turbocharger spool-up (virtually
eliminating the once-common ‘‘turbo
lag’’) while maintaining high flow rates
for increased boost at high engine
speeds. Low speed torque output has
been dramatically improved for modern
turbocharged engines. However, even
with turbocharger improvements,
maximum engine torque at very low
engine speed conditions, for example
launch from standstill, is increased less
than at mid and high engine speed
conditions. The potential to downsize
engines may be less on vehicles with
low displacement to vehicle mass ratios
for example a very small displacement
engine in a vehicle with significant curb
weight, in order to provide adequate
acceleration from standstill, particularly
up grades or at high altitudes.
The use of GDI in combination with
turbocharging and charge air cooling
reduces the fuel octane requirements for
knock limited combustion enabling the
use of higher compression ratios and
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boosting pressures. Recently published
data with advanced spray-guided
injection systems and more aggressive
engine downsizing targeted towards
reduced fuel consumption and CO2
emissions reductions indicate that the
potential for reducing CO2 emissions for
turbocharged, downsized GDI engines
may be as much as 15 to 30 percent
relative to port-fuel-injected
engines.14 15 16 17 18 Confidential
manufacturer data suggests an
incremental range of fuel consumption
and CO2 emission reduction of 4.8 to 7.5
percent for turbocharging and
downsizing. Other publicly-available
sources suggest a fuel consumption and
CO2 emission reduction of 8 to 13
percent compared to current-production
naturally-aspirated engines without
friction reduction or other fuel economy
technologies: a joint technical paper by
Bosch and Ricardo suggesting fuel
economy gain of 8 to 10 percent for
downsizing from a 5.7 liter port
injection V8 to a 3.6 liter V6 with direct
injection using a wall-guided direct
injection system; a Renault report
suggesting a 11.9 percent NEDC fuel
consumption gain for downsizing from
a 1.4 liter port injection in-line 4cylinder engine to a 1.0 liter in-line 4cylinder engine, also with wall-guided
direct injection; and a Robert Bosch
paper suggesting a 13 percent NEDC
gain for downsizing to a turbocharged
DI engine, again with wall-guided
injection. These reported fuel economy
benefits show a wide range depending
on the SGDI technology employed.
Note that for this analysis we
determined that this technology path is
only applicable to heavy duty
applications that have operating
conditions more closely associated with
light duty vehicles. This includes vans
designed mainly for cargo volume or
modest payloads having similar GCWR
to light duty applications. These vans
cannot tow trailers heavier than similar
light duty vehicles and are largely
already sharing engines of significantly
smaller displacement and cylinder
count compared to heavy duty vehicles
designed mainly for trailer towing.
(viii) Cooled Exhaust-Gas Recirculation
Cooled exhaust gas recirculation or
Boosted EGR is a combustion concept
that involves utilizing EGR as a charge
diluent for controlling combustion
temperatures and cooling the EGR prior
to its introduction to the combustion
system. Higher exhaust gas residual
levels at part load conditions reduce
pumping losses for increased fuel
economy. The additional charge
dilution enabled by cooled EGR reduces
the incidence of knocking combustion
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and obviates the need for fuel
enrichment at high engine power. This
allows for higher boost pressure and/or
compression ratio and further reduction
in engine displacement and both
pumping and friction losses while
maintaining performance. Engines of
this type use GDI and both dual cam
phasing and discrete variable valve lift.
The EGR systems considered in this
proposed rule, consistent with the
proposal, would use a dual-loop system
with both high and low pressure EGR
loops and dual EGR coolers. The
engines would also use single-stage,
variable geometry turbocharging with
higher intake boost pressure available
across a broader range of engine
operation than conventional
turbocharged SI engines. Such a system
is estimated to be capable of an
additional 3 to 5 percent effectiveness
relative to a turbocharged, downsized
GDI engine without cooled-EGR. The
agencies have also considered a more
advanced version of such a cooled EGR
system that employs very high
combustion pressures by using dual
stage turbocharging.
(b) Diesel Engine Technologies
Diesel engines have several
characteristics that give them superior
fuel efficiency compared to
conventional gasoline, spark-ignited
engines. Pumping losses are much lower
due to lack of (or greatly reduced)
throttling. The diesel combustion cycle
operates at a higher compression ratio,
with a very lean air/fuel mixture, and
turbocharged light-duty diesels typically
achieve much higher torque levels at
lower engine speeds than equivalentdisplacement naturally-aspirated
gasoline engines. Additionally, diesel
fuel has a higher energy content per
gallon.347 However, diesel fuel also has
a higher carbon to hydrogen ratio,
which increases the amount of CO2
emitted per gallon of fuel used by
approximately 15 percent over a gallon
of gasoline.
Based on confidential business
information and the 2010 NAS Report,
two major areas of diesel engine design
could be improved during the timeframe
of this proposed rule. These areas
include aftertreatment improvements
and a broad range of engine
improvements.
(i) Aftertreatment Improvements
The HD diesel pickup and van
segment has largely adopted the SCR
type of aftertreatment system to comply
347 Burning one gallon of diesel fuel produces
about 15 percent more carbon dioxide than gasoline
due to the higher density and carbon to hydrogen
ratio.
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with criteria pollutant emission
standards. As the experience base for
SCR expands over the next few years,
many improvements in this
aftertreatment system such as
construction of the catalyst, thermal
management, and reductant
optimization may result in a reduction
in the amount of fuel used in the
process. However, due to uncertainties
with these improvements regarding the
extent of current optimization and
future criteria emissions obligations, the
agencies are not considering
aftertreatment improvements as a fuelsaving technology in the rulemaking
analysis.
(ii) Engine Improvements
Diesel engines in the HD pickup and
van segment are expected to have
several improvements in their base
design in the 2021–2027 timeframe.
These improvements include items such
as improved combustion management,
optimal turbocharger design, and
improved thermal management.
(c) Transmission Technologies
The agencies have also reviewed the
transmission technology estimates used
in the 2017–2015 light-duty and 2014–
2018 heavy-duty final rules. In doing so,
NHTSA and EPA considered or
reconsidered all available sources
including the 2015 NHTSA Technology
Study and updated the estimates as
appropriate. The section below
describes each of the transmission
technologies considered for the
proposal.
(i) Automatic 8-Speed Transmissions
Manufacturers can also choose to
replace 6-speed automatic transmissions
with 8-speed automatic transmissions.
Additional ratios allow for further
optimization of engine operation over a
wider range of conditions, but this is
subject to diminishing returns as the
number of speeds increases. As
additional gear sets are added,
additional weight and friction are
introduced requiring additional
countermeasures to offset these losses.
Some manufacturers are replacing 6speed automatics already, and 7- and 8speed automatics have entered
production.
(ii) High Efficiency Transmission
For this proposal, a high efficiency
transmission refers to some or all of a
suite of incremental transmission
improvement technologies that should
be available within the 2019 to 2027
timeframe. The majority of these
improvements address mechanical
friction within the transmission. These
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improvements include but are not
limited to: shifting clutch technology
improvements, improved kinematic
design, dry sump lubrication systems,
more efficient seals, bearings and
clutches (reducing drag), component
superfinishing and improved
transmission lubricants.
(d) Electrification/Accessory
Technologies
(i) Electrical Power Steering or
Electrohydraulic Power Steering
Electric power steering (EPS) or
Electrohydraulic power steering (EHPS)
provides a potential reduction in CO2
emissions and fuel consumption over
hydraulic power steering because of
reduced overall accessory loads. This
eliminates the parasitic losses
associated with belt-driven power
steering pumps which consistently draw
load from the engine to pump hydraulic
fluid through the steering actuation
systems even when the wheels are not
being turned. EPS is an enabler for all
vehicle hybridization technologies since
it provides power steering when the
engine is off. EPS may be implemented
on most vehicles with a standard 12V
system. Some heavier vehicles may
require a higher voltage system which
may add cost and complexity.
(ii) Improved Accessories
The accessories on an engine,
including the alternator, coolant and oil
pumps are traditionally mechanicallydriven. A reduction in CO2 emissions
and fuel consumption can be realized by
driving them electrically, and only
when needed (‘‘on-demand’’).
Electric water pumps and electric fans
can provide better control of engine
cooling. For example, coolant flow from
an electric water pump can be reduced
and the radiator fan can be shut off
during engine warm-up or cold ambient
temperature conditions which will
reduce warm-up time, reduce warm-up
fuel enrichment, and reduce parasitic
losses.
Indirect benefit may be obtained by
reducing the flow from the water pump
electrically during the engine warm-up
period, allowing the engine to heat more
rapidly and thereby reducing the fuel
enrichment needed during cold
operation and warm-up of the engine.
Faster oil warm-up may also result from
better management of the coolant warmup period. Further benefit may be
obtained when electrification is
combined with an improved, higher
efficiency engine alternator used to
supply power to the electrified
accessories.
Intelligent cooling can more easily be
applied to vehicles that do not typically
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carry heavy payloads, so larger vehicles
with towing capacity present a
challenge, as these vehicles have high
cooling fan loads.348 However, towing
vehicles tend to have large cooling
system capacity and flow scaled to
required heat rejection levels when
under full load situations such as
towing at GCWR in extreme ambient
conditions. During almost all other
situations, this design characteristic
may result in unnecessary energy usage
for coolant pumping and heat rejection
to the radiator.
The agencies considered whether to
include electric oil pump technology for
the rulemaking. Because it is necessary
to operate the oil pump any time the
engine is running, electric oil pump
technology has insignificant effect on
efficiency. Therefore, the agencies
decided to not include electric oil pump
technology.
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(iii) Mild Hybrid
Mild hybrid systems offer idle-stop
functionality and a limited level of
regenerative braking and power assist.
These systems replace the conventional
alternator with a belt or crank driven
starter/alternator and may add high
voltage electrical accessories (which
may include electric power steering and
an auxiliary automatic transmission
pump). The limited electrical
requirements of these systems allow the
use of lead-acid batteries or
supercapacitors for energy storage, or
the use of a small lithium-ion battery
pack.
(iv) Strong Hybrid
A hybrid vehicle is a vehicle that
combines two significant sources of
propulsion energy, where one uses a
consumable fuel (like gasoline), and one
is rechargeable (during operation, or by
another energy source). Hybrid
technology is well established in the
U.S. light-duty market and more
manufacturers are adding hybrid models
to their lineups. Hybrids reduce fuel
consumption through three major
mechanisms:
• The internal combustion engine can
be optimized (through downsizing,
modifying the operating cycle, or other
control techniques) to operate at or near
its most efficient point more of the time.
Power loss from engine downsizing can
be mitigated by employing power assist
from the secondary power source.
• A significant amount of the energy
normally lost as heat while braking can
348 In the CAFE model, improved accessories
refers solely to improved engine cooling. However,
EPA has included a high efficiency alternator in
this category, as well as improvements to the
cooling system.
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be captured and stored in the energy
storage system for later use.
• The engine is turned off when it is
not needed, such as when the vehicle is
coasting or when stopped.
Hybrid vehicles utilize some
combination of the three above
mechanisms to reduce fuel consumption
and CO2 emissions. The effectiveness of
fuel consumption and CO2 reduction
depends on the utilization of the above
mechanisms and how aggressively they
are pursued. One area where this
variation is particularly prevalent is in
the choice of engine size and its effect
on balancing fuel economy and
performance. Some manufacturers
choose not to downsize the engine when
applying hybrid technologies. In these
cases, overall performance (acceleration)
is typically improved beyond the
conventional engine. However, fuel
efficiency improves less than if the
engine was downsized to maintain the
same performance as the conventional
version. The non-downsizing approach
is used for vehicles like trucks where
towing and/or hauling are an integral
part of their performance requirements.
In these cases, if the engine is
downsized, the battery can be quickly
drained during a long hill climb with a
heavy load, leaving only a downsized
engine to carry the entire load. Because
towing capability is currently a heavilymarketed truck attribute, manufacturers
are hesitant to offer a truck with
downsized engine which can lead to a
significantly diminished towing
performance when the battery state of
charge level is low, and therefore
engines are traditionally not downsized
for these vehicles.
Strong Hybrid technology utilizes an
axial electric motor connected to the
transmission input shaft and connected
to the engine crankshaft through a
clutch. The axial motor is a motor/
generator that can provide sufficient
torque for launch assist, all electric
operation, and the ability to recover
significant levels of braking energy.
(e) Vehicle Technologies
(i) Mass Reduction
Mass reduction is a technology that
can be used in a manufacturer’s strategy
to meet the Heavy Duty Greenhouse Gas
Phase 2 standards. Vehicle mass
reduction (also referred to as ‘‘downweighting’’ or ‘light-weighting’’),
decreases fuel consumption and GHG
emissions by reducing the energy
demand needed to overcome inertia
forces, and rolling resistance.
Automotive companies have worked
with mass reduction technologies for
many years and a lot of these
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technologies have been used in
production vehicles. The weight savings
achieved by adopting mass reduction
technologies offset weight gains due to
increased vehicle size, larger
powertrains, and increased feature
content (sound insulation,
entertainment systems, improved
climate control, panoramic roof, etc.).
Sometimes mass reduction has been
used to increase vehicle towing and
payload capabilities.
Manufacturers employ a systematic
approach to mass reduction, where the
net mass reduction is the addition of a
direct component or system mass
reduction, also referred to as primary
mass reduction, plus the additional
mass reduction taken from indirect
ancillary systems and components, also
referred to as secondary mass reduction
or mass compounding. There are more
secondary mass reductions achievable
for light-duty vehicles compared to
heavy-duty vehicles, which are limited
due to the higher towing and payload
requirements for these vehicles.
Mass reduction can be achieved
through a number of approaches, even
while maintaining other vehicle
functionalities. As summarized by NAS
in its 2011 light duty vehicle report,349
there are two key strategies for primary
mass reduction: (1) Changing the design
to use less material; (2) substituting
lighter materials for heavier materials.
The first key strategy of using less
material compared to the baseline
component can be achieved by
optimizing the design and structure of
vehicle components, systems and
vehicle structure. Vehicle manufacturers
have long used these continuallyimproving CAE tools to optimize
vehicle designs. For example, the Future
Steel Vehicle (FSV) project 350
sponsored by WorldAutoSteel used
three levels of optimization: topology
optimization, low fidelity 3G (Geometry
Grade and Gauge) optimization, and
subsystem optimization, to achieve 30
percent mass reduction in the body
structure of a vehicle with a mild steel
unibody structure. Using less material
can also be achieved through improving
the manufacturing process, such as by
using improved joining technologies
and parts consolidation. This method is
349 Committee on the Assessment of Technologies
for Improving Light-Duty Vehicle Fuel Economy;
National Research Council, ‘‘Assessment of Fuel
Economy Technologies for Light-Duty Vehicles’’,
2011. Available at https://www.nap.edu/
catalog.php?record_id=12924 (last accessed Jun 27,
2012).
350 SAE World Congress, ‘‘Focus B-pillar ‘tailor
rolled’ to 8 different thicknesses,’’ Feb. 24, 2010.
Available at https://www.sae.org/mags/AEI/7695
(last accessed Jun. 10, 2012).
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often used in combination with
applying new materials.
The second key strategy to reduce
mass of an assembly or component
involves the substitution of lower
density and/or higher strength
materials. Material substitution includes
replacing materials, such as mild steel,
with higher-strength and advanced
steels, aluminum, magnesium, and
composite materials. In practice,
material substitution tends to be quite
specific to the manufacturer and
situation. Some materials work better
than others for particular vehicle
components, and a manufacturer may
invest more heavily in adjusting to a
particular type of advanced material,
thus complicating its ability to consider
others. The agencies recognize that like
any type of mass reduction, material
substitution has to be conducted not
only with consideration to maintaining
equivalent component strength, but also
to maintaining all the other attributes of
that component, system or vehicle, such
as crashworthiness, durability, and
noise, vibration and harshness (NVH).
If vehicle mass is reduced sufficiently
through application of the two primary
strategies of using less material and
material substitution described above,
secondary mass reduction options may
become available. Secondary mass
reduction is enabled when the load
requirements of a component are
reduced as a result of primary mass
reduction. If the primary mass reduction
reaches a sufficient level, a
manufacturer may use a smaller, lighter,
and potentially more efficient
powertrain while maintaining vehicle
acceleration performance. If a
powertrain is downsized, a portion of
the mass reduction may be attributed to
the reduced torque requirement which
results from the lower vehicle mass. The
lower torque requirement enables a
reduction in engine displacement,
changes to transmission torque
converter and gear ratios, and changes
to final drive gear ratio. The reduced
powertrain torque enables the
downsizing and/or mass reduction of
powertrain components and
accompanying reduced rotating mass
(e.g., for transmission, driveshafts/
halfshafts, wheels, and tires) without
sacrificing powertrain durability.
Likewise, the combined mass reductions
of the engine, drivetrain, and body in
turn reduce stresses on the suspension
components, steering components,
wheels, tires, and brakes, which can
allow further reductions in the mass of
these subsystems. Reducing the
unsprung masses such as the brakes,
control arms, wheels, and tires further
reduce stresses in the suspension
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mounting points, which will allow for
further optimization and potential mass
reduction. However, pickup trucks have
towing and hauling requirements which
must be taken into account when
determining the amount of secondary
mass reduction that is possible and so
it is less than that of passenger cars.
Ford’s MY 2015 F–150 is one example
of a light duty manufacturer who has
begun producing high volume vehicles
with a significant amount of mass
reduction identified, specifically 250 to
750 lb per vehicle 351. The vehicle is an
aluminum intensive design and
includes an aluminum cab structure,
body panels, and suspension
components, as well as a high strength
steel frame and a smaller, lighter and
more efficient engine. The Executive
Summary to Ducker Worldwide’s 2014
report 352 states that state that the MY
2015 F–150 contains 1080 lbs of
aluminum with at least half of this being
aluminum sheet and extrusions for body
and closures. Ford engine range for its
light duty truck fleet includes a 2.7L
EcoBoost V–6. It is possible that the
strategy of aluminum body panels will
be applied to the heavy duty F–250 and
F–350 versions when they are
redesigned.353
EPA recently completed a multi-year
study with FEV North America, Inc. on
the lightweighting of a light-duty pickup
truck, a 2011 GMC Silverado, titled
‘‘Mass Reduction and Cost Analysis
–Light-Duty Pickup Trucks Model Years
2020–2025.’’ 354 Results contain a cost
curve for various mass reduction
percentages with the main solution
being evaluated for a 21.4 percent (511
kg/1124 lb) mass reduction resulting in
an increased direct incremental
manufacturing cost of $2228. In
addition, the report outlines the
compounding effect that occurs in a
vehicle with performance requirements
including hauling and towing.
Secondary mass evaluation was
performed on a component level based
on an overall 20 percent vehicle mass
reduction. Results revealed 84 kg of the
511 kg, or 20 percent, were from
351 ‘‘2008/9 Blueprint for Sustainability,’’ Ford
Motor Company. Available at: https://
www.ford.com/go/sustainability (last accessed
February 8, 2010).
352 ‘‘2015 North American Light Vehicle
Aluminum Content Study—Executive Summary’’,
June 2014, https://www.drivealuminum.org/
research-resources/PDF/Research/2014/2014ducker-report (last accessed February 26, 2015).
353 https://www.foxnews.com/leisure/2014/09/30/
ford-confirms-increased-aluminum-use-on-nextgen-super-duty-pickups/.
354 ‘‘Mass Reduction and Cost Analysis—LightDuty Pickup Trucks Model Years 2020–2025’’, FEV,
North America, Inc., April 2015, Document no.
EPA–420–R–15–006.
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secondary mass reduction. Information
on this study is summarized in SAE
paper 2015–01–0559. DOT has also
sponsored an on-going pickup truck
lightweighting project. This project uses
a more recent baseline vehicle, a MY
2014 GMC Silverado, and the project
will be finished by early 2016. Both
projects will be utilized for the lightduty GHG and CAFE Midterm
Evaluation mass reduction baseline
characterization and may be used to
update assumptions of mass reduction
for HD pickups and vans for the final
Phase 2 rulemaking.
In order to determine if technologies
identified on light duty trucks are
applicable to heavy-duty pickups, EPA
also contracted with FEV North
America, Inc. to perform a scaling study
in order to evaluate the technologies
identified for the light-duty truck would
be applicable for a heavy-duty pickup
truck, in this study a Silverado 2500, a
Mercedes Sprinter and a Renault
Master. This report is currently being
drafted and will be peer reviewed and
finalized between the proposed rule and
the final rule making. The specific
results will be presented in the final
rulemaking (FRM) and may be used to
update assumptions of mass reduction
for the FRM.
The RIA for this rulemaking shows
that mass reduction is assumed to be
part of the strategy for compliance for
HD pickups and vans. The assumptions
of mass reduction for HD pickups and
vans as used in this analysis were taken
from the recent light-duty fuel
economy/GHG rulemaking for light-duty
pickup trucks, though they may be
updated for the FRM based upon the ongoing EPA and NHTSA lightweighting
studies as well as other information
received in the interim. The cost and
effectiveness assumptions for mass
reduction technology are described in
the RIA.
(ii) Low Rolling Resistance Tires
Tire rolling resistance is the frictional
loss associated mainly with the energy
dissipated in the deformation of the
tires under load and thus influences fuel
efficiency and CO2 emissions. Other tire
design characteristics (e.g., materials,
construction, and tread design)
influence durability, traction (both wet
and dry grip), vehicle handling, and ride
comfort in addition to rolling resistance.
A typical LRR tire’s attributes would
include: Increased tire inflation
pressure, material changes, and tire
construction with less hysteresis,
geometry changes (e.g., reduced aspect
ratios), and reduction in sidewall and
tread deflection. These changes would
generally be accompanied with
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additional changes to suspension tuning
and/or suspension design.
(iii) Aerodynamic Drag Reduction
Many factors affect a vehicle’s
aerodynamic drag and the resulting
power required to move it through the
air. While these factors change with air
density and the square and cube of
vehicle speed, respectively, the overall
drag effect is determined by the product
of its frontal area and drag coefficient,
Cd. Reductions in these quantities can
therefore reduce fuel consumption and
CO2 emissions. Although frontal areas
tend to be relatively similar within a
vehicle class (mostly due to marketcompetitive size requirements),
significant variations in drag coefficient
can be observed. Significant changes to
a vehicle’s aerodynamic performance
may need to be implemented during a
redesign (e.g., changes in vehicle shape).
However, shorter-term aerodynamic
reductions, with a somewhat lower
effectiveness, may be achieved through
the use of revised exterior components
(typically at a model refresh in midcycle) and add-on devices that currently
being applied. The latter list would
include revised front and rear fascias,
modified front air dams and rear
valances, addition of rear deck lips and
underbody panels, and lower
aerodynamic drag exterior mirrors.
(6) What Are the Projected Technology
Effectiveness Values and Costs
The assessment of the technology
effectiveness and costs was determined
from a combination of sources. First an
assessment was performed by SwRI
under contract with the agencies to
determine the effectiveness and costs on
several technologies that were generally
not considered in the Phase 1 GHG rule
time frame. Some of the technologies
were common with the light-duty
assessment but the effectiveness and
costs of individual technologies were
appropriately adjusted to match the
expected effectiveness and costs when
implemented in a heavy-duty
application. Finally, the agencies
performed extensive outreach to
suppliers of engine, transmission and
vehicle technologies applicable to
heavy-duty applications to get industry
input on cost and effectiveness of
potential GHG and fuel consumption
reducing technologies.
To achieve the levels of the proposed
standards for gasoline and diesel
powered heavy-duty vehicles, a
combination of the technologies
previously discussed would be required
respective to unique gasoline and diesel
technologies and their challenges.
Although some of the technologies may
already be implemented in a portion of
heavy-duty vehicles, none of the
technologies discussed are considered
ubiquitous in the heavy-duty fleet. Also,
as would be expected, the available test
data show that some vehicle models
would not need the full complement of
available technologies to achieve the
proposed standards. Furthermore, many
technologies can be further improved
(e.g., aerodynamic improvements) from
today’s best levels, and so allow for
compliance without needing to apply a
technology that a manufacturer might
deem less desirable.
Technology costs for HD pickups and
vans are shown in Table VI–4. These
costs reflect direct and indirect costs to
the vehicle manufacturer for the 2021
model year. See Chapter 2 of the Draft
RIA for a more complete description of
the basis of these costs.
TABLE VI–4—TECHNOLOGY COSTS FOR HD PICKUPS & VANS INCLUSIVE OF INDIRECT COST MARKUPS FOR MY2021
(2012$)
Technology
Gasoline
Engine changes to accommodate low friction lubes .......................................................................................................
Engine friction reduction—level 1 ....................................................................................................................................
Engine friction reduction—level 2 ....................................................................................................................................
Dual cam phasing ............................................................................................................................................................
Cylinder deactivation .......................................................................................................................................................
Stoichiometric gasoline direct injection ...........................................................................................................................
Turbo improvements ........................................................................................................................................................
Cooled EGR .....................................................................................................................................................................
Turbocharging & downsizinga ..........................................................................................................................................
‘‘Right-sized’’ diesel from larger diesel ............................................................................................................................
8s automatic transmission (increment to 6s automatic transmission) ............................................................................
Improved accessories—level 1 ........................................................................................................................................
Improved accessories—level 2 ........................................................................................................................................
Low rolling resistance tires—level 1 ................................................................................................................................
Passive aerodynamic improvements (aero 1) .................................................................................................................
Passive plus Active aerodynamic improvements (aero2) ...............................................................................................
Electric (or electro/hydraulic) power steering ..................................................................................................................
Mass reduction (10% on a 6500 lb vehicle) ....................................................................................................................
Driveline friction reduction ...............................................................................................................................................
Stop-start (no regenerative braking) ................................................................................................................................
Mild HEV ..........................................................................................................................................................................
Strong HEV without inclusion of any engine changes ....................................................................................................
$6
116
254
183
196
451
N/A
373
671
N/A
457
82
132
10
51
230
151
318
139
539
2,730
6,779
Diesel
$6
116
254
183
N/A
N/A
16
373
N/A
0
457
82
132
10
51
230
151
318
139
539
2,730
6,779
ebenthall on DSK3VPTVN1PROD with MISCELLANEOUS
Note:
a Cost to downsize from a V8 OHC to a V6 OHC engine with twin turbos.
As noted above, the CAFE model
works by adding technologies in an
incremental fashion to each particular
vehicle in a manufacturer’s fleet until
that fleet complies with the imposed
standards. It does this by following a
predefined set of decision trees whereby
the particular vehicle is placed on the
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appropriate decision tree and it follows
the predefined progression of
technology available on that tree. At
each step along the tree, a decision is
made regarding the cost of a given
technology relative to what already
exists on the vehicle along with the fuel
consumption improvement it provides
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relative to the fuel consumption at the
current location on the tree, prior to
deciding whether to take that next step
on the tree or remain in the current
location. Because the model works in
this way, the input files must be
structured to provide costs and
effectiveness values for each technology
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relative to whatever technologies have
been added in earlier steps along the
tree. Table VI–5 presents the cost and
effectiveness values used in the CAFE
model input files.
TABLE VI–5—CAFE MODEL INPUT VALUES FOR COST & EFFECTIVENESS FOR GIVEN TECHNOLOGIES a
Incremental cost (2012$) a b
FC savings
(%)
Technology
Improved Lubricants and Engine Friction Reduction ................................................
Coupled Cam Phasing (SOHC) .................................................................................
Dual Variable Valve Lift (SOHC) ...............................................................................
Cylinder Deactivation (SOHC) ...................................................................................
Intake Cam Phasing (DOHC) ....................................................................................
Dual Cam Phasing (DOHC) ......................................................................................
Dual Variable Valve Lift (DOHC) ...............................................................................
Cylinder Deactivation (DOHC) ...................................................................................
Stoichiometric Gasoline Direct Injection (OHC) ........................................................
Cylinder Deactivation (OHV) .....................................................................................
Variable Valve Actuation (OHV) ................................................................................
Stoichiometric Gasoline Direct Injection (OHV) ........................................................
Engine Turbocharging and Downsizing:
Small Gasoline Engines .....................................................................................
Medium Gasoline Engines .................................................................................
Large Gasoline Engines .....................................................................................
Cooled Exhaust Gas Recirculation ............................................................................
Cylinder Deactivation on Turbo/downsized Eng. ......................................................
Lean-Burn Gasoline Direct Injection ..........................................................................
Improved Diesel Engine Turbocharging ....................................................................
Engine Friction & Parasitic Reduction:
Small Diesel Engines .........................................................................................
Medium Diesel Engines ......................................................................................
Large Diesel Engines .........................................................................................
Downsizing of Diesel Engines (V6 to I–4) .................................................................
8-Speed Automatic Transmission c ............................................................................
Electric Power Steering .............................................................................................
Improved Accessories (Level 1) ................................................................................
Improved Accessories (Level 2) ................................................................................
Stop-Start System ......................................................................................................
Integrated Starter-Generator .....................................................................................
Strong Hybrid Electric Vehicle ...................................................................................
Mass Reduction (5%) ................................................................................................
Mass Reduction (additional 5%) ................................................................................
Reduced Rolling Resistance Tires ............................................................................
Low-Drag Brakes .......................................................................................................
Driveline Friction Reduction .......................................................................................
Aerodynamic Improvements (10%) ...........................................................................
Aerodynamic Improvements (add’l 10%) ..................................................................
2021
2025
2027
1.60
3.82
2.47
3.70
0.00
3.82
2.47
3.70
0.50
3.90
6.10
0.50
24
48
42
34
48
46
42
34
71
216
54
71
24
43
37
30
43
40
37
30
61
188
47
61
23
39
34
27
39
37
34
27
56
172
43
56
8.00
8.00
8.00
3.04
1.70
4.30
2.51
518
¥12
623
382
33
1,758
22
441
¥62
522
332
29
1,485
19
407
¥44
456
303
26
1,282
18
3.50
3.50
3.50
11.10
5.00
1.00
0.93
0.93
1.10
3.20
17.20
1.50
1.50
1.10
0.40
0.50
0.70
0.70
269
345
421
0
482
160
93
57
612
1,040
3,038
0.28
0.87
10
106
153
58
193
253
325
397
0
419
144
83
54
517
969
2,393
0.24
0.75
9
102
137
52
182
213
273
334
0
382
130
75
46
446
760
2,133
0.21
0.66
9
102
124
47
153
Notes:
a Values for other model years available in CAFE model input files available at NHTSA Web site.
b For mass reduction, cost reported on mass basis (per pound of curb weight reduction).
c 8 speed automatic transmission costs include costs for high efficiency gearbox and aggressive shift logic whereas those costs were kept separate in prior analyses.
(7) Summary of Alternatives Analysis
The major outputs of the CAFE model
analysis are summarized in Table VI–6
and Table VI–7 below for the flat and
dynamic baselines, respectively. For a
more detailed analysis of the
alternatives, please refer to Section D
below as well as the draft RIA.
TABLE VI–6—SUMMARY OF HD PICKUP AND VAN ALTERNATIVES’ ANALYSIS—METHOD A USING THE FLAT BASELINE a
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Alternative
2
Annual Standard Increase ...............................................................................
Stringency Increase through MY .....................................................................
Total Stringency Increase .........................................................................
3
2.0%/y
2025
9.6%
4
5
2.5%/y
2027
16.2%
3.5%/y
2025
16.3%
4.0%/y
2025
18.5%
20.58
20.58
20.58
20.83
21.14
21.32
Average Fuel Economy (miles per gallon)
Required ..........................................................................................................
Achieved ..........................................................................................................
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19.12
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TABLE VI–6—SUMMARY OF HD PICKUP AND VAN ALTERNATIVES’ ANALYSIS—METHOD A USING THE FLAT BASELINE a—
Continued
Alternative
2
3
4
5
Average Fuel Consumption (gallons/100 mi.)
Required ..........................................................................................................
Achieved ..........................................................................................................
5.25
5.23
4.86
4.86
4.86
4.80
4.73
4.69
458
458
458
453
446
442
1,324
26
1,001
1,804
34
1,363
2,135
36
1,614
10.1
118
5.6
29.0
23.4
11.9
139
8.7
34.4
25.7
13.3
155
10.2
37.9
27.7
Average Greenhouse Gas Emissions (g/mi)
Required ..........................................................................................................
Achieved ..........................................................................................................
495
493
Incremental Technology Cost (vs. No-Action)
Average ($/vehicle) b ........................................................................................
Payback period (m) b .......................................................................................
Total ($m) .................................................................................................
700
24
529
Benefit-Cost Summary, MYs 2021–2030 ($billion) c
Fuel Savings (bil. gal.) .....................................................................................
CO2 Reduction (mmt) ......................................................................................
Total Social Cost ......................................................................................
Total Social Benefit ..................................................................................
Net Social Benefit .....................................................................................
6.1
73
3.3
18.4
15.1
Notes:
a For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
b Values also used in Method B.
c At a 3% discount rate.
TABLE VI–7—SUMMARY OF HD PICKUP AND VAN ALTERNATIVES’ ANALYSIS—METHOD A USING THE DYNAMIC BASELINE a
Alternative
2
Annual Standard Increase ...............................................................................
Stringency Increase through MY .....................................................................
Total Stringency Increase .........................................................................
3
2.0%/y
2025
9.6%
4
5
2.5%/y
2027
16.2%
3.5%/y
2025
16.3%
4.0%/y
2025
18.5%
20.57
20.61
20.57
20.83
21.14
21.27
4.86
4.85
4.86
4.80
4.73
4.70
458
458
458
453
446
444
1,348
31
1,019
1,655
34
1,251
2,080
38
1,572
8.9
104
6.8
23.6
16.8
10.5
122
9.5
28.2
18.7
11.9
139
13.0
32.8
19.8
Average Fuel Economy (miles per gallon)
Required ..........................................................................................................
Achieved ..........................................................................................................
19.04
19.14
Average Fuel Consumption (gallons/100 mi.)
Required ..........................................................................................................
Achieved ..........................................................................................................
5.25
5.22
Average Greenhouse Gas Emissions (g/mi)
Required ..........................................................................................................
Achieved ..........................................................................................................
495
491
Incremental Technology Cost (vs. No-Action)
Average ($/vehicle) b ........................................................................................
Payback period (m) b .......................................................................................
Total ($m) .................................................................................................
578
25
437
ebenthall on DSK3VPTVN1PROD with MISCELLANEOUS
Benefit-Cost Summary, MYs 2021–2030 ($billion) c
Fuel Savings (bil. gal.) .....................................................................................
CO2 Reduction (mmt) ......................................................................................
Total Social Cost ......................................................................................
Total Social Benefit ..................................................................................
Net Social Benefit .....................................................................................
5.0
59
3.3
14.3
11.0
Notes:
a For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
b Values also used in Method B.
c At a 3% discount rate.
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In general, the proposed standards are
projected to cause manufacturers to
produce HD pickups and vans that are
lighter, more aerodynamic, and more
technologically complex across all the
alternatives, while social benefits
continue to increase across all
alternatives. As shown, there is a major
difference between the relatively small
improvements in required fuel
consumption and average incremental
technology cost between the
alternatives, suggesting that the
challenge of improving fuel
consumption and CO2 emissions
accelerates as stringency increases (i.e.,
that there may be a ‘‘knee’’ in the
dependence of the challenge and on the
stringency). Despite the fact that the
required average fuel consumption level
only changes by 3 percent between
Alternative 4 and Alternative 5, average
technology cost increases by more than
25 percent.
Note further that the difference in
estimated costs, effectiveness, degree of
technology penetration required, and
overall benefits do not vary significantly
under either the flat or dynamic
baseline assumptions. The agencies
view these results as corroborative of
the basic reasonableness of the approach
proposed.
ebenthall on DSK3VPTVN1PROD with MISCELLANEOUS
(8) Consistency of the Proposed
Standards With the Agencies’
Respective Legal Authorities
Based on the information currently
before the agencies, we believe that
Alternative 3 would be maximum
feasible and appropriate for this
segment for the model years in question.
EPA believes this reflects a reasonable
consideration of the statutory factors of
technology effectiveness, feasibility,
cost, lead time, and safety for purposes
of CAA sections 202 (a)(1) and (2).
NHTSA believes this proposal is
maximum feasible under EISA. The
agencies have projected a compliance
path for the proposed standards
showing aggressive implementation of
technologies that the agencies consider
to be available in the time frame of these
rules. Under this approach,
manufacturers are expected to
implement these technologies at
aggressive adoption rates on essentially
all vehicles across this sector by 2027
model year. In the case of several of
these technologies, adoption rates are
projected to approach 100 percent. This
includes a combination of engine,
transmission and vehicle technologies
as described in this section across every
vehicle. The proposal also is premised
on less aggressive penetration of
particular advanced technologies,
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including strong hybrid electric
vehicles.
We project the proposed standards to
be achievable within known design
cycles, and we believe these standards
would allow different paths to
compliance in addition to the one we
outline and cost here. As discussed
below and throughout this analysis, our
proposal places a higher value on
maintaining functionality and capability
of vehicles designed for work (versus
light-duty), and on the assurance of in
use reliability and market acceptance of
new technology, particularly in initial
model years of the program.
Nevertheless, it may be possible to have
additional adoption rates of the
technologies than we project so that
further reductions could be available at
reasonable cost and cost-effectiveness.
Alternative 4 is also discussed in
detail below because the agencies
believe it has the potential to be the
maximum feasible alternative, and
otherwise appropriate. The agencies
could decide to adopt Alternative 4, in
whole or in part, in the final rule. In
particular, the agencies believe
Alternative 4, which would achieve the
same stringency as the proposed
standards with two years less lead time,
merits serious consideration. However,
the agencies are uncertain whether the
projected technologies and market
penetration rates that could be
necessary to meet the stringencies
would be practicable within the lead
time provided in Alternative 4. The
proposed standards are generally
designed to achieve the levels of fuel
consumption and GHG stringency that
Alternative 4 would achieve, but with
several years of additional lead time,
meaning that manufacturers could, in
theory, apply new technology at a more
gradual pace and with greater flexibility.
The agencies seek comment on these
alternatives, including their
corresponding lead times.
Alternative 4 is based on a year-overyear increase in stringency of 3.5
percent in MYs 2021–2025 whereas the
proposed preferred Alternative 3 is
based on a 2.5 percent year-over-year
increase in stringency in MY 2021–
2027. The agencies project that the
higher rate of increase in stringency
associated with Alternative 4 and the
shorter lead time would necessitate the
use of a different technology mix under
Alternative 4 compared to Alternative 3.
Alternative 3 would achieve the same
final stringency increase as Alternative
4 at about 80 percent of the average pervehicle cost increase, and without the
expected deployment of more advanced
technology at high penetration levels. In
particular, under the agencies’ primary
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analysis that includes the use of strong
hybrids manufacturers are estimated to
deploy strong hybrids in approximately
8 percent of new vehicles (in MY2027)
under Alternative 3, compared to 12
percent under Alternative 4 (in MY
2025). Less aggressive electrification
technologies also appear on 33 percent
of new vehicles simulated to be
produced in MY2027 under Alternative
4, but are not necessary under
Alternative 3. Additionally, it is
important to note that due to the shorter
lead time of Alternative 4, there are
fewer vehicle refreshes and redesigns
during the phase-in period of MY 2021–
2025. While the CAFE model’s
algorithm accounts for manufacturers’
consideration of upcoming stringency
changes and credit carry-forward, the
steeper ramp-up of the standard in
Alternative 4, coupled with the five-year
credit life, results in a prediction that
manufacturers would take less costeffective means to comply with the
standards compared with the proposed
alternative 3 phase-in period of MY
2021–2027. For example, the model
predicts that some manufacturers would
not implement any amount of strong
hybrids on their vans during the 2021–
2025 timeframe and instead would
implement less effective technologies
such as mild hybrids at higher rates
than what would otherwise have been
required if they had implemented a
small percentage of strong hybrids.
Whereas for Alternative 3, the longer,
shallower phase-in of the standards
allows for more compliance flexibility
and closer matching with the vehicle
redesign cycles, which (as noted above)
can be up to ten years for HD vans.
There is also a high degree of
sensitivity to the estimated effectiveness
levels of individual technologies. At
high penetration rates of all
technologies on a vehicle, the result of
a reduced effectiveness of even a single
technology could be non-compliance
with the standards. If the standards do
not account for this uncertainty, there
would be a real possibility that a
manufacturer who followed the exact
technology path we project would not
meet their target because a technology
performed slightly differently in their
application. NHTSA has explored this
uncertainty, among others, in the
uncertainty analysis described in
Section D below.
As discussed above, the proposed
Alternative 3 standards and the
Alternative 4 standards are based on the
application of the technologies
described in this section. These
technologies are projected to be
available within the lead time provided
under Alternative 3—i.e., by MY 2027,
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as discussed in Draft RIA Chapter 2.6.
The proposed standards and Alternative
4 would require a relatively aggressive
implementation schedule of most of
these technologies during the program
phase-in. Heavy-duty pickups and vans
would need to have a combination of
many individual technologies to achieve
the proposed standards. The proposed
standards are projected to yield
significant emission and fuel
consumption reductions without
requiring a large segment transition to
strong hybrids, a technology that while
successful in light-duty passenger cars,
cross-over vehicles and SUVs, may
impact vehicle work capabilities 355 and
have questionable customer acceptance
in a large portion of this segment
dedicated to towing.356
Table VI–8 below shows that the
agencies’ analysis estimates that the
most cost-effective way to meet the
requirements of Alternative 3 would be
to use strong hybrids in up to 9.9
percent of pickups and 5.5 percent of
vans on an industry-wide basis whereas
Alternative 4 shows strong hybrids on
40359
up to 19 percent of pickups. The
analysis shows that the two years of
additional lead time provided by the
proposed Alternative 3 would provide
manufacturers with a better opportunity
to maximize the use of more cost
effective technologies over time thereby
reducing the need for strong hybrids
which may be particularly challenging
for this market segment. The agencies
seek comment on the potential use of
technologies in response to Alternatives
3 and 4, as well as the corresponding
lead times proposed in each alternative.
TABLE VI–8—CAFE MODEL TECHNOLOGY ADOPTION RATES FOR PROPOSAL AND ALTERNATIVE 4 SUMMARY—FLAT
BASELINE
Proposal (2.5% per year)
2021 to 2027
Alternative 4 (3.5% per year)
2021 to 2025
Technology
Pickup trucks
(%)
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Low friction lubricants ......................................................................
Engine friction reduction ..................................................................
Cylinder deactivation .......................................................................
Variable valve timing .......................................................................
Gasoline direct injection ..................................................................
Diesel engine improvements ...........................................................
Turbo downsized engine .................................................................
8 speed transmission ......................................................................
Low rolling resistance tires ..............................................................
Aerodynamic drag reduction ...........................................................
Mass reduction and materials .........................................................
Electric power steering ....................................................................
Improved accessories .....................................................................
Low drag brakes .............................................................................
Stop/start engine systems ...............................................................
Mild hybrid .......................................................................................
Strong hybrid ...................................................................................
Vans
(%)
100
100
22
22
0
60
0
98
100
100
100
100
100
100
0
0
9.9
Pickup trucks
(%)
100
100
19
82
63
3.6
63
92
92
100
100
49
87
45
0
0
5.5
100
100
22
22
0
60
0
98
100
100
100
100
100
100
15
29
19
Vans
(%)
100
100
19
82
80
3.6
63
92
59
100
100
46
36
45
1.5
15
0
As discussed earlier, the agencies also
conducted a sensitivity analysis to
determine a compliance pathway where
no strong hybrids would be selected.
Although the agencies project that
strong hybrids may be the most cost
effective approach, manufacturers may
select another compliance path. This no
strong hybrid analysis included the use
of downsized turbocharged engine in
vans currently equipped with large
V–8 engines. Turbo-downsized engines
were not allowed on 6+ liter gasoline
vans in the primary analysis because the
agencies sought to preserve consumer
choice with respect to vans that have
large V–8s for towing. However, given
the recent introduction of vans with
considerable towing capacity and turbodownsized engines, the agencies believe
it would be feasible for vans in the timeframe of these proposed rules. Table VI–
9 below reflects the difference in
penetration rates of technologies for the
proposal and Alternative 4 if strong
hybridization is not chosen as a
technology pathway. For simplicity,
pickup trucks and vans are combined
into a single industry wide penetration
rate. While strong hybridization may
provide the most cost effective path for
a manufacturer to comply with the
Proposal or Alternative 4, there are
other means to comply with the
requirements, mainly a 20 percent
penetration rate of mild hybrids for the
Proposal or a 66 percent penetration of
mild hybrids for Alternative 4. The
modeling of both alternatives predicts a
1 to 4 percent penetration of stop/start
engine systems.
The table also shows that when strong
hybrids are used as a pathway to
compliance, penetration rates of all
hybrid technologies increase
substantially between the proposal and
Alternative 4. The analysis predicts an
increase in strong hybrid penetration
from 8 percent to 12 percent, a 23
percent penetration of mild hybrids and
a 10 percent penetration stop/start
engine systems for Alternative 4
compared with the proposal. Also, by
having the final standards apply in
MY2027 instead of MY2025, the
proposal is not premised on use of any
mild hybrids or stop/start engine
systems to achieve the same level of
stringency as Alternative 4.
355 Hybrid batteries, motors and electronics
generally add weight to a vehicle and require more
space which can result in conflicts with payload
weight and volume objectives.
356 Hybrid electric systems are not sized for
situations when vehicles are required to do trailer
towing where the combined weight of vehicle and
trailer is 2 to 4 times that of the vehicle alone.
During these conditions, the hybrid system will
have reduced effectiveness. Sizing the system for
trailer towing is prohibitive with respect to hybrid
component required sizes and the availability of
locations to place larger components like batteries.
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TABLE VI–9—CAFE MODEL TECHNOLOGY ADOPTION RATES FOR PROPOSAL AND ALTERNATIVE 4 COMBINED FLEET AND
FUELS SUMMARY—FLAT BASELINE
Proposal (2.5% per year)
2021 to 2027
Technology
With strong
hybrids
(%)
Low friction lubricants ......................................................................
Engine friction reduction ..................................................................
Cylinder deactivation .......................................................................
Variable valve timing .......................................................................
Gasoline direct injection ..................................................................
Diesel engine improvements ...........................................................
Turbo downsized engine a ...............................................................
8 speed transmission ......................................................................
Low rolling resistance tires ..............................................................
Aerodynamic drag reduction ...........................................................
Mass reduction and materials .........................................................
Electric power steering ....................................................................
Improved accessories .....................................................................
Low drag brakes .............................................................................
Stop/start engine systems ...............................................................
Mild hybrid .......................................................................................
Strong hybrid ...................................................................................
Alternative 4 (3.5% per year)
2021 to 2025
Without strong
hybrids
(%)
100
100
21
46
25
38
25
96
97
100
100
80
67
78
0
0
8
With strong
hybrids
(%)
100
100
22
46
45
38
31
96
97
100
100
92
77
93
1
20
0
100
100
21
46
31
38
25
96
84
100
100
79
75
78
10
23
12
Without strong
hybrids
(%)
100
100
14
46
45
38
31
96
84
100
100
79
75
78
4
66
0
Note:
a The 6+ liter V8 vans were allowed to convert to turbocharged and downsized engines in the ‘‘without strong hybrid’’ analysis for both the Proposal and the Alternative 4 to provide a compliance path.
Table VI–10 and Table VI–11 below
provide a further breakdown of
projected technology adoption rates
specifically for gasoline-fueled pickups
and vans which shows potential
adoption rates of strong hybrids for each
vehicle type. Strong hybrids are not
projected to be used in diesel
applications. The Alternative 4 analysis
shows the use of strong hybrids in up
to 48 percent of gasoline pickups,
depending on the mix of strong and
mild hybrids, and stop/start engine
systems in 20 percent of gasoline
pickups (the largest gasoline HD
segment). It is important to note that
this analysis only shows one pathway to
compliance, and the manufacturers may
make other decisions, e.g., changing the
mix of strong vs. mild hybrids, or
applying electrification technologies to
HD vans instead. The technology
adoption rates projected for gasoline
pickups and gasoline vans due to the
proposed Alternative 3 and Alternative
4 are shown in Table VI–10 and Table
VI–11, respectively.
TABLE VI–10—CAFE MODEL TECHNOLOGY ADOPTION RATES FOR PROPOSAL AND ALTERNATIVE 4 ON GASOLINE PICKUP
TRUCKS—FLAT BASELINE
Proposal (2.5% per year)
2021 to 2027
Alternative 4 (3.5% per year)
2021 to 2025
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Technology
With strong
hybrids
(%)
Without strong
hybrids
(%)
With strong
hybrids
(%)
Without strong
hybrids
(%)
Low friction lubricants .............................................................................
Engine friction reduction .........................................................................
Cylinder deactivation ..............................................................................
Variable valve timing ..............................................................................
Gasoline direct injection .........................................................................
8 speed transmission ..............................................................................
Low rolling resistance tires .....................................................................
Aerodynamic drag reduction ...................................................................
Mass reduction and materials ................................................................
Electric power steering ...........................................................................
Improved accessories .............................................................................
Low drag brakes .....................................................................................
Driveline friction reduction ......................................................................
Stop/start engine systems ......................................................................
Mild hybrid ..............................................................................................
Strong hybrid ..........................................................................................
100 .................
100 .................
56 ...................
56 ...................
0 .....................
100 .................
100 .................
100 .................
100 .................
100 .................
100 .................
100 .................
44 ...................
0 .....................
Up to 42 a .......
Up to 25 .........
100
100
56
56
56
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
68
0
0%
............................
100 .................
100 .................
56 ...................
56 ...................
0 .....................
100 .................
100 .................
100 .................
100 .................
100 .................
100 .................
100 .................
68 ...................
20 ...................
18–86 a ...........
Up to 48 .........
100
100
56
56
56
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
68
0
86
............................
Note:
a Depending on extent of strong hybrid adoption as hybrid technologies can replace each other, however they will have different effectiveness
and costs.
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TABLE VI–11—CAFE MODEL TECHNOLOGY ADOPTION RATES FOR PROPOSAL AND ALTERNATIVE 4 ON GASOLINE VANS—
FLAT BASELINE
Proposal (2.5% per year)
2021 to 2027
Alternative 4 (3.5% per year)
2021 to 2025
Technology
With strong
hybrids
(%)
Without strong
hybrids
(%)
Low friction lubricants .........................................................................
Engine friction reduction .....................................................................
Cylinder deactivation ..........................................................................
Variable valve timing ..........................................................................
Gasoline direct injection .....................................................................
Turbo downsized engine a .............................................................
8 speed transmission .........................................................................
Low rolling resistance tires .................................................................
Aerodynamic drag reduction ..............................................................
Mass reduction and materials ............................................................
Electric power steering .......................................................................
Improved accessories .........................................................................
Low drag brakes .................................................................................
Stop/start engine systems ..................................................................
Mild hybrid ..........................................................................................
Strong hybrid ......................................................................................
100 ..................
100 ..................
23 ....................
100 ..................
57 ....................
77 ....................
97 ....................
100 ..................
100 ..................
100 ..................
55 ....................
23 ....................
53 ....................
0 ......................
Up to 13 b ........
Up to 7 ............
100
100
3
100
97
97
97
100
100
100
85
38
89
0
13
............................
With strong
hybrids
(%)
100
100
23
100
97
77
97
60
100
100
53
43
53
2
18
0
Without strong
hybrids
(%)
100
100
3
100
97
97
97
60
100
100
53
43
100
0
40
............................
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Notes:
a The 6+ liter V8 vans were allowed to convert to turbocharged and downsized engines in the ‘‘without strong hybrid’’ analysis for both the Proposal and the Alternative 4 to provide a compliance path.
b Depending on extent of strong hybrid adoption as hybrid technologies can replace each other, however they will have different effectiveness
and costs.
The tables above show that many
technologies would be at or potentially
approach 100 percent adoption rates
according to the analysis. If certain
technologies turn out to be not well
suited for certain vehicle models or less
effective that projected, other
technology pathways would be needed.
The additional lead time provided by
the proposed Alternative 3 reduces
these concerns because manufacturers
would have more flexibility to
implement their compliance strategy
and are more likely to contain a product
redesign cycle necessary for many new
technologies to be implemented.
GM may have a particular challenge
meeting new standards compared to
other manufacturers because their
production consists of a larger portion
of gasoline-powered vehicles and
because they continue to offer a
traditional style HD van equipped only
with a V–8 engine. Under the strong
hybrid analysis for Alternative 3, GM is
projected to apply strong hybrids to 46
percent of their HD gasoline pickups
and 17 percent their HD gasoline vans.
Under Alternative 4, GM is projected to
apply a combination of 53 percent
strong and 43 percent mild hybrids to
their HD gasoline pickups and 44
percent mild hybrids to their HD vans.
The no strong hybrid analysis shows
that GM could comply without strong
hybrids based on the use of turbo
downsizing on all of their HD gasoline
vans to fully comply with either
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Alternative 3 or Alternative 4. As
modeled, Alternative 4 would also
require GM to additionally utilize
several other technologies such as
higher penetration of mild
hybridization. If GM were to choose to
maintain a V–8 version of their current
HD van and not fully utilize turbo
downsizing, another compliance path
such as some use of strong hybrids
would be needed. This would also be
the case if GM chose not to fully utilize
some other technologies under
Alterative 4 as well.
In addition to the possibility of an
increased level of hybridization, the
agencies are also requesting comment
on other possible outcomes associated
especially with Alternative 4; in
particular, the possibility of traditional
van designs or other products being
discontinued. Several manufacturers
now offer or are moving to European
style HD vans. Ford, for example, has
discontinued its E-series body on frame
HD van and has replaced it with the
unibody Transit van for MY 2015. While
other manufacturers have replaced their
traditional style vans with new
European style van designs, GM
continues to offer the traditional full
frame style van with eight cylinder
gasoline engines for higher towing
capability (up to 16,000 lb GCWR).
Typically, the European style vans are
equipped with smaller engines offering
better fuel consumption and lower CO2
emissions but with reduced towing
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capability, similar to light-duty trucks
(though Ford offers a Transit van with
a GCWR of 15,000 lb).
The agencies request comment on the
potential for Alternative 4 in particular
to incentivize GM to discontinue its
current traditional style van and replace
it with an as yet to be designed
European style van similar to its
competitor’s products. See Bluewater
Network v. EPA, 370 F. 3d 1, 22 (D.C.
Cir. 2004) (standard implementing
technology-forcing provision of CAA
remanded to EPA for an explanation of
why the standard was not based on
discontinuation of a particular model);
International Harvester v. Ruckelshaus,
478 F. 2d 615, 640–41 (D.C. Cir. 1973)
(‘‘We are inclined to agree with the
Administrator that as long as feasible
technology permits the demand for new
passenger automobiles to be generally
met, the basic requirements of the Act
would be satisfied, even though this
might occasion fewer models and a
more limited choice of engine types’’).
Such an outcome could limit consumer
choice both on the style of van available
in the marketplace and on the range of
capabilities of the vehicles available.
The agencies have not attempted to cost
out this possible compliance path. The
agencies request comments on the
likelihood of this type of redesign as a
possible outcome of Alternative 3 and
Alternative 4, and whether it would be
appropriate. We are especially
interested in comments on the potential
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impact on consumer choice and the
costs associated with this type of
wholesale vehicle model replacement.
In addition, another potential
outcome of Alternative 4 would be that
manufacturers could change the product
utility. For example, although GM’s
traditional van discussed above
currently offers similar towing capacity
as gasoline pickups, GM could choose to
replace engines designed for those
towing capacities with small gas or
diesel engines. The agencies request
comment on the potential for
Alternative 4 to lead to this type of
compliance approach.
The agencies also request comment on
the possibility that Alternative 4 could
lead to increased dieselization of the HD
pickup and van fleet. Dieselization is
not a technology path the agencies
included in the analysis for the Phase 1
rule or the Phase 2 proposal but it is
something the agencies could consider
as a technology path under Alternative
4. As discussed earlier, diesel engines
are fundamentally more efficient than
gasoline engines providing the same
power (even gasoline engines with the
technologies discussed above).
Alternative 4 could result in
manufacturers switching from gasoline
engines to diesel engines in certain
challenging segments. However, while
technologically feasible, this pathway
could cause a distortion in consumer
choices and significantly increase the
cost of those vehicles, particularly
considering Alternative 4 is projected to
require penetration of some form of
hybridization. Also, if dieselization
occurs by manufacturers equipping
vehicles with larger diesel engines
rather than ‘‘right-sized’’ engines, the
towing capability of the vehicles could
increase resulting in higher work factors
for the vehicles, higher targets, and
reduced program benefits. The issue of
surplus towing capability is also
discussed above in VI.B. (1).
The technologies associated with
meeting the proposed standards are
estimated to add costs to heavy-duty
pickups and vans as shown in Table VI–
12 and Table VI–13 for the flat baseline
and dynamic baseline, respectively.
These costs are the average fleet-wide
incremental vehicle costs relative to a
vehicle meeting the MY2018 standard in
each of the model years shown.
Reductions associated with these costs
and technologies are considerable,
estimated at a 13.6 percent reduction of
fuel consumption and CO2eq emissions
from the MY 2018 baseline for gasoline
and diesel engine equipped vehicles.357
A detailed cost and cost effectiveness
analysis for both the proposed preferred
Alternative 3 are provided in Section IX
and Chapter 7.1 of the draft RIA. As
shown by the analysis, the long-term
cost effectiveness of the proposal is
similar to that of the Phase 1 HD pickup
and van standards and also falls within
the range of the cost effectiveness for
Phase 2 standards proposed for the
other HD sectors.358 The cost of controls
would be fully recovered by the
operator due to the associated fuel
savings, with a payback period
somewhere in the third year of
ownership, as shown in Section IX.L of
this preamble. Consistent with the
agencies’ respective statutory authorities
under 42 U.S.C. 7521(a) and 49 U.S.C.
32902(k)(2), and based on the agencies’
analysis, EPA and NHTSA are
proposing Alternative 3. The agencies
seek comment on Alternative 4, as we
may seek to adopt it in whole or in part
in the final rule.
We also show the costs for the
potential Alternative 4 standards in
Table VI–14 and Table VI–15. As
shown, the costs under Alternative 4
would be significantly higher compared
to Alternative 3.
TABLE VI–12—HD PICKUPS AND VANS INCREMENTAL TECHNOLOGY COSTS PER VEHICLE PREFERRED ALTERNATIVE VS.
FLAT BASELINE
[2012$]
2021
HD Pickups & Vans ...................
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$516
$508
$791
$948
$1,161
$1,224
$1,342
TABLE VI–13—HD PICKUPS AND VANS INCREMENTAL TECHNOLOGY COSTS PER VEHICLE PREFERRED ALTERNATIVE VS.
DYNAMIC BASELINE
[2012$]
2021
HD Pickups & Vans ...................
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$493
$485
$766
$896
$1,149
$1,248
$1,366
TABLE VI–14—HD PICKUPS AND VANS INCREMENTAL TECHNOLOGY COSTS PER VEHICLE ALTERNATIVE 4 VS. FLAT
BASELINE
[2012$]
2021
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HD Pickups & Vans ...................
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$1,050
$1,033
$1,621
$1,734
$1,825
$1,808
$1,841
357 See
Table VI–5.
using the MOVES model indicates
that the cost effectiveness of these standards is $95
358 Analysis
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per ton CO2 eq removed in MY 2030 (Draft RIA
Table 7–31), almost identical to the $90 per ton CO2
eq removed (MY 2030) which the agencies found
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to be highly cost effective for these same vehicles
in Phase 1. See 76 FR 57228.
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TABLE VI–15—HD PICKUPS AND VANS INCREMENTAL TECHNOLOGY COSTS PER VEHICLE ALTERNATIVE 4 VS. DYNAMIC
BASELINE
[2012$]
2021
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HD Pickups & Vans ...................
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$909
$894
$1,415
$1,532
$1,627
$1,649
$1,684
D. DOT CAFE Model Analysis of the
Regulatory Alternatives for HD Pickups
and Vans
Considering the establishment of
potential HD pickup and van fuel
consumption and GHG standards to
follow those already in place through
model year 2018, the agencies evaluated
a range of potential regulatory
alternatives. The agencies estimated the
extent to which manufacturers might
add fuel-saving and CO2-avoiding
technologies under each regulatory
alternative, including the no-action
alternative described in Section X. of
this proposal. For HD pickups and vans
both agencies analyzed two no-action
alternatives, where one no-action
alternative could be described as a ‘‘flat
baseline’’ and the other as a ‘‘dynamic
baseline’’. Please refer to Section X. of
this proposal for a complete discussion
of the assumptions that underlie these
baselines. The agencies then estimated
the extent to which additional
technology that would be implemented
to meet each regulatory alternative
would incrementally (compared to the
no-action alternative) impact costs to
manufacturers and vehicle buyers,
physical outcomes such as highway
travel, fuel consumption, and
greenhouse gas emissions, and
economic benefits and costs to vehicle
owners and society. The remainder of
this section and portions of Sections VII
through X present the regulatory
alternatives the agencies have
considered, summarize the agencies’
analyses, and explain the agencies’
selection of the HD pickup and van
preferred alternative defined by today’s
proposed standards.
The agencies conducted coordinated
and complementary analyses by
employing both DOT’s CAFE model and
EPA’s MOVES model and other
analytical tools to project fuel
consumption and GHG emissions
impacts resulting from the proposed
standards for HD pickups and vans,
against both the flat and dynamic
baselines. In addition to running the
DOT CAFE model to provide per vehicle
cost and technology values, NHTSA also
used the model to estimate the full
range of impacts for pickups and vans,
including fuel consumption and GHG
emissions, including downstream
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vehicular emissions as well as
emissions from upstream processes
related to fuel production, distribution,
and delivery. The CAFE model applies
fuel properties (density and carbon
content) to estimated fuel consumption
in order to calculate vehicular CO2
emissions, applies per-mile emission
factors (in this analysis, from MOVES)
to estimated VMT in order to calculate
vehicular CH4 and N2O emissions (as
well, as discussed below, of non-GHG
pollutants), and applies per-gallon
upstream emission factors (in this
analysis, from GREET) in order to
calculate upstream GHG (and non-GHG)
emissions. EPA also ran its MOVES
model for all HD categories, namely
tractors and trailers, vocational vehicles
and HD pickups and vans, to develop a
consistent set of fuel consumption and
CO2 reductions for all HD categories.
The MOVES runs followed largely the
procedures described above, with some
differences. MOVES used the same
technology application rates and costs
that are part of the inputs, and used cost
per vehicle outputs of the CAFE model
to evaluate the proposed standards for
HD pickup trucks and vans. The
agencies note that these two
independent analyses of aggregate costs
and benefits both support the proposed
standards.
While both agencies fully analyzed
the regulatory alternatives against both
baselines, NHTSA considered its
primary analysis to be based on the
dynamic baseline, where certain costeffective technologies are assumed to be
applied by manufacturers to improve
fuel efficiency beyond the Phase 1
requirements in the absence of new
Phase 2 standards. On the other hand,
EPA considered both baselines and
EPA’s less dynamic or flat baseline
analysis is presented in Sections VII
through X of this proposal as well as the
draft Regulatory Impact Analysis
accompanying this proposal. In Section
X both the flat and dynamic baseline
analyses are presented for all of the
regulatory alternatives.
This section provides a discussion of
the CAFE model, followed by the
comprehensive results of the CAFE
model against the dynamic baseline to
show costs, benefits, and environmental
impacts of the regulatory alternatives for
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HD pickups and vans. This presentation
of regulatory analysis is consistent with
NHTSA’s presentation of similar
analyses conducted in support of the
agencies joint light-duty vehicle fuel
economy and GHG regulations. The
CAFE analysis against the flat baseline
as well as EPA’s complementary
analysis of GHG impacts, non-GHG
impacts, and economic and other
impacts using MOVES is presented in
Sections VII through IX of this proposal,
as well as in the draft Regulatory Impact
Analysis accompanying this proposal.
These are presented side-by-side with
the agencies’ joint analyses of the other
heavy-duty sectors (i.e., tractors, trailers,
vocational vehicles). The presentation of
the EPA analyses of HD pickups and
vans in these sections is consistent with
the agencies’ presentation of similar
analyses conducted as part of the
agencies’ joint HD Phase 1 regulations
and with EPA’s presentation of similar
analyses conducted in support of the
agencies’ joint light-duty vehicle fuel
economy and GHG regulations. The
agencies’ intention for presenting both
of these complementary and
coordinated analyses is to offer
interested readers the opportunity to
compare the regulatory alternatives
considered for Phase 2 in both the
context of our Phase 1 analytical
approaches and our light-duty vehicle
analytical approaches.
(1) Evaluation of Regulatory
Alternatives
As discussed in Section C above, the
agencies used DOT’s CAFE model to
conduct an analysis of potential
standards for HD pickups and vans. The
basic operation of the CAFE model was
described in section VI.C.2, so will not
be repeated here. However, this section
provides additional detail on the model
operation, inputs, assumptions, and
outputs.
DOT developed the CAFE model in
2002 to support the 2003 issuance of
CAFE standards for MYs 2005–2007
light trucks. DOT has since significantly
expanded and refined the model, and
has applied the model to support every
ensuing CAFE rulemaking;
• 2006: MYs 2008–2011 light trucks
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• 2008: MYs 2011–2015 passenger cars
and light trucks (final rule prepared
but withheld)
• 2009: MY 2011 passenger cars and
light trucks
• 2010: MYs 2012–2016 passenger cars
and light trucks (joint rulemaking
with EPA)
• 2012: MYs 2017–2021 passenger cars
and light trucks (joint rulemaking
with EPA)
Past analyses conducted using the
CAFE model have been subjected to
extensive and detailed review and
comment, much of which has informed
the model’s expansion and refinement.
NHTSA’s use of the model was
considered and supported in Center for
Biological Diversity v. National Highway
Traffic Safety Admin., 538 F.3d 1172,
1194 (9th Cir. 2008). For further
discussion see 76 FR 57198, and the
model has been subjected to formal peer
review and review by the General
Accounting Office (GAO) and National
Research Council (NRC). NHTSA makes
public the model, source code, and—
except insofar as doing so would
compromise confidential business
information (CBI) manufacturers have
provided to NHTSA—all model inputs
and outputs underlying published
rulemaking analyses.
This analysis reflects several changes
made to the model since 2012, when
NHTSA used the model to estimate the
effects, costs, and benefits of final CAFE
standards for light-duty vehicles
produced during MYs 2017–2021, and
augural standards for MYs 2022–2025.
Some of these changes specifically
enable analysis of potential fuel
consumption standards (and, hence,
related CO2 emissions standards
harmonized with fuel consumption
standards) for heavy-duty pickups and
vans; other changes implement more
general improvements to the model. Key
changes include the following:
• Expansion and restructuring of
model inputs, compliance calculations,
and reporting to accommodate
standards for heavy-duty pickups and
vans, including attribute-based
standards involving targets that vary
with ‘‘work factor’’.
• Explicit calculation of test weight,
taking into account test weight ‘‘bins’’
and differences in the definition of test
weight for light-duty vehicles (curb
weight plus 300 pound) and heavy-duty
pickups and vans (average of GVWR and
curb weight).
• Procedures to estimate increases in
payload when curb weight is reduced,
increases in towing capacity if GVWR is
reduced, and calculation procedures to
correspondingly update calculated work
factors.
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• Expansion of model inputs,
procedures, and outputs to
accommodate technologies not included
in prior analyses.
• Changes to the algorithm used to
apply technologies, enabling more
explicit accounting for shared vehicle
platforms and adoption and
‘‘inheritance’’ of major engine changes.
• Expansion of the Monte Carlo
simulation procedures used to perform
probabilistic uncertainty analysis.
These changes are reflected in
updated model documentation available
at NHTSA’s Web site, the
documentation also providing more
information about the model’s purpose,
scope, structure, design, inputs,
operation, and outputs. DOT invites
comment on the updated model, and in
particular, on the updated handling of
shared vehicle platforms, engines, and
transmissions, and on the new
procedures to estimate changes to test
weight, GVWR, and GCWR as vehicle
curb weight is reduced.
(a) Product Cadence
Past comments on the CAFE model
have stressed the importance of product
cadence—i.e., the development and
periodic redesign and freshening of
vehicles—in terms of involving
technical, financial, and other practical
constraints on applying new
technologies, and DOT has steadily
made changes to the model with a view
toward accounting for these
considerations. For example, early
versions of the model added explicit
‘‘carrying forward’’ of applied
technologies between model years,
subsequent versions applied
assumptions that most technologies
would be applied when vehicles are
freshened or redesigned, and more
recent versions applied assumptions
that manufacturers would sometimes
apply technology earlier than
‘‘necessary’’ in order to facilitate
compliance with standards in ensuing
model years. Thus, for example, if a
manufacturer is expected to redesign
many of its products in model years
2018 and 2023, and the standard’s
stringency increases significantly in
model year 2021, the CAFE model will
estimate the potential that the
manufacturer will add more technology
than necessary for compliance in MY
2018, in order to carry those product
changes forward through the next
redesign and contribute to compliance
with the MY 2021 standard.
The model also accommodates
estimates of overall limits (expressed as
‘‘phase-in caps’’ in model inputs) on the
rates at which manufacturers’ may
practicably add technology to their
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respective fleets. So, for example, even
if a manufacturer is expected to redesign
half of its production in MY 2016, if the
manufacturer is not already producing
any strong hybrid electric vehicles
(SHEVs), a phase-in cap can be specified
in order to assume that manufacturer
will stop applying SHEVs in MY 2016
once it has done so to at least 3 percent
of its production in that model year.
After the light-duty rulemaking
analysis accompanying the 2012 final
rule regarding post-2016 CAFE
standards and related GHG emissions
standards, DOT staff began work on
CAFE model changes expected to better
reflect additional considerations
involved with product planning and
cadence. These changes, summarized
below, interact with preexisting model
characteristics discussed above.
(b) Platforms and Technology
The term ‘‘platform’’ is used loosely
in industry, but generally refers to a
common structure shared by a group of
vehicle variants. The degree of
commonality varies, with some platform
variants exhibiting traditional ‘‘badge
engineering’’ where two products are
differentiated by little more than
insignias, while other platforms be used
to produce a broad suite of vehicles that
bear little outer resemblance to one
another.
Given the degree of commonality
between variants of a single platform,
manufacturers do not have complete
freedom to apply technology to a
vehicle: while some technologies (e.g.
low rolling resistance tires) are very
nearly ‘‘bolt-on’’ technologies, others
involve substantial changes to the
structure and design of the vehicle, and
therefore necessarily are constant
between vehicles that share a common
platform. DOT staff has, therefore,
modified the CAFE model such that all
mass reduction and aero technologies
are forced to be constant between
variants of a platform. The agencies
request comment on the suitability of
this viewpoint, and which technologies
can deviate from one platform variant to
another.
Within the analysis fleet, each vehicle
is associated with a specific platform.
As the CAFE model applies technology,
it first defines a platform ‘‘leader’’ as the
vehicle variant of a platform with the
highest technology utilization vehicle of
mass reduction and aerodynamic
technologies. As the vehicle applies
technologies, it effectively harmonizes
to the highest common denominator of
the platform. If there is a tie, the CAFE
model begins applying aerodynamic and
mass reduction technology to the
vehicle with the lowest average sales
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across all available model years. If there
remains a tie, the model begins by
choosing the vehicle with the highest
average MSRP across all available model
years. The model follows this
formulation due to previous market
trends suggesting that many
technologies begin deployment at the
high-end, low-volume end of the market
as manufacturers build their confidence
and capability in a technology, and later
expand the technology across more
mainstream product lines.
In the HD pickup and van market,
there is a relatively small amount of
diversity in platforms produced by
manufacturers: typically 1–2 truck
platforms and 1–2 van platforms.
However, accounting for platforms will
take on greater significance in future
analyses involving the light-duty fleet,
and the agency requests comments on
the general use of platforms within
CAFE rulemaking.
(c) Engine and Transmission Inheritance
In practice, manufacturers are limited
in the number of engines and
transmissions that they produce.
Typically a manufacturer produces a
number of engines—perhaps six or eight
engines for a large manufacturer—and
tunes them for slight variants in output
for a variety of car and truck
applications. Manufacturers limit
complexity in their engine portfolio for
much the same reason as they limit
complexity in vehicle variants: They
face engineering manpower limitations,
and supplier, production and service
costs that scale with the number of parts
produced.
In previous usage of the CAFE model,
engines and transmissions in individual
models were allowed relative freedom
in technology application, potentially
leading to solutions that would, if
followed, involve unaccounted-for costs
associated with increased complexity in
the product portfolio. The lack of a
constraint in this area allowed the
model to apply different levels of
technology to the engine in each vehicle
at the time of redesign or refresh,
independent of what was done to other
vehicles using a previously identical
engine.
In the current version of the CAFE
model, engines and transmissions that
are shared between vehicles must apply
the same levels of technology in all
technologies dictated by engine or
transmission inheritance. This forced
adoption is referred to as ‘‘engine
inheritance’’ in the model
documentation.
As with platform-shared technologies,
the model first chooses an ‘‘engine
leader’’ among vehicles sharing the
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same engine. The leader is selected first
by the vehicle with the lowest average
sales across all available model years. If
there is a tie, the vehicle with the
highest average MSRP across model
years is chosen. The model applies the
same logic with respect to the
application of transmission changes. As
with platforms, this is driven by the
concept that vehicle manufacturers
typically deploy new technologies in
small numbers prior to deploying
widely across their product lines.
(d) Interactions Between Regulatory
Classes
Like earlier versions, the current
CAFE model provides for integrated
analysis spanning different regulatory
classes, accounting both for standards
that apply separately to different classes
and for interactions between regulatory
classes. Light vehicle CAFE standards
are specified separately for passenger
cars and light trucks. However, there is
considerable sharing between these two
regulatory classes. Some specific
engines and transmissions are used in
both passenger cars and light trucks,
and some vehicle platforms span these
regulatory classes. For example, some
sport-utility vehicles are offered in 2WD
versions classified as passenger cars and
4WD versions classified as light trucks.
Integrated analysis of manufacturers’
passenger car and light truck fleets
provides the ability to account for such
sharing and reduce the likelihood of
finding solutions that could involve
impractical levels of complexity in
manufacturers’ product lines. In
addition, integrated analysis provides
the ability to simulate the potential that
manufactures could earn CAFE credits
by over complying with one standard
and use those credits toward
compliance with the other standard (i.e.,
to simulate credit transfers between
regulatory classes).
HD pickups and vans are regulated
separately from light-duty vehicles.
While manufacturers cannot transfer
credits between light-duty and MDHD
classes, there is some sharing of
engineering and technology between
light-duty vehicles and HD pickups and
vans. For example, some passenger vans
with GVWR over 8,500 lbs are classified
as medium-duty passenger vehicles
(MDPVs) and thus included in
manufacturers’ light-duty truck fleets,
while cargo vans sharing the same
nameplate are classified as HD vans.
While today’s analysis examines the
HD pickup and van fleet in isolation, as
a basis for analysis supporting the
planned final rule, the agencies intend
to develop an overall analysis fleet
spanning both the light-duty and HD
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pickup and van fleets. Doing so could
show some technology ‘‘spilling over’’
to HD pickups and vans due, for
example, to the application of
technology in response to current lightduty standards. More generally,
modeling the two fleets together should
tend to more realistically limit the scope
and complexity of estimated compliance
pathways.
The agencies anticipate that the
impact of modeling a combined fleet
will primarily arise from enginetransmission inheritance. While
platform sharing between the light-duty
and MD pickup and van fleets is
relatively small (MDPVs aside), there
are a number of instances of engine and
transmission sharing across the two
fleets. When the fleets are modeled
together, the agencies anticipate that
engine inheritance will be implemented
across the combined fleet, and therefore
only one engine-transmission leader can
be defined across the combined fleet. As
with the fleets separately, all vehicles
using a shared engine/transmission
would automatically adopt technologies
adopted by the engine-transmission
leader.
The agencies request comment on
plans to analyze the light-duty and MD
pickup and van fleets jointly in support
of planning for the final rule.
(e) Phase-In Caps
The CAFE model retains the ability to
use phase-in caps (specified in model
inputs) as proxies for a variety of
practical restrictions on technology
application. Unlike vehicle-specific
restrictions related to redesign, refreshes
or platforms/engines, phase-in caps
constrain technology application at the
vehicle manufacturer level. They are
intended to reflect a manufacturer’s
overall resource capacity available for
implementing new technologies (such
as engineering and development
personnel and financial resources),
thereby ensuring that resource capacity
is accounted for in the modeling
process.
In previous CAFE rulemakings,
redesign/refresh schedules and phase-in
caps were the primary mechanisms to
reflect an OEM’s limited pool of
available resources during the
rulemaking time frame and the years
leading up to the rulemaking time
frame, especially in years where many
models may be scheduled for refresh or
redesign. The newly-introduced
representation platform-, engine-, and
transmission-related considerations
discussed above augment the model’s
preexisting representation of redesign
cycles and accommodation of phase-in
caps. Considering these new constraints,
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(f) Impact of Vehicle Technology
Application Requirements
associated with producing and
maintaining a product portfolio.
Compared to prior analyses of lightduty standards, these model changes,
along with characteristics of the HD
pickup and van fleet result in some
changes in the broad characteristics of
the model’s application of technology to
manufacturers’ fleets. First, since the
number of HD pickup and van platforms
in a portfolio is typically small,
compliance with standards may appear
especially ‘‘lumpy’’ (compared to
previous applications of the CAFE
model to the more highly segmented
light-duty fleet), with significant over
compliance when widespread redesigns
precede stringency increases, and/or
significant application of carriedforward (aka ‘‘banked’’) credits.
Second, since the use of phase-in caps
has been de-emphasized and
manufacturer technology deployment
remains tied strongly to estimated
product redesign and freshening
schedules, technology penetration rates
may jump more quickly as
manufacturers apply technology to highvolume products in their portfolio.
By design, restrictions that enforce
commonality of mass reduction and
aerodynamic technologies on variants of
a platform, and those that enforce
engine inheritance, will result in fewer
vehicle-technology combinations in a
manufacturer’s future modeled fleet.
These restrictions are expected to more
accurately capture the true costs
(g) Accounting for Test Weight, Payload,
and Towing Capacity
Where:
DCW = % change in curb weight (from model
input),
DFCunrounded_TW = % change in fuel
consumption (from model input),
without TW rounding,
DTW = % change in test weight (calculated),
and
DFCrounded_TW = % change in fuel
consumption (calculated), with TW
rounding.
test weights to increase by, e.g., 500 lbs
when rounding is accounted for. Model
outputs now include initial and final
TW, GVWR, and GCWR (and, as before,
CW) for each vehicle model in each
model year, and the agencies invite
comment on the extent to which these
changes to account explicitly for
changes in TW are likely to produce
more realistic estimates of the
compliance impacts of reductions in
vehicle mass.
In addition, considering that the
regulatory alternatives in the agencies’
analysis all involve attribute-based
standards in which underlying fuel
consumption targets vary with ‘‘work
factor’’ (defined by the agencies as the
sum of three quarters of payload, one
quarter of towing capacity, and 500 lb.
for vehicles with 4WD), NHTSA has
modified the CAFE model to apply
inputs defining shares of curb weight
reduction to be ‘‘returned’’ to payload
and shares of GVWR reduction to be
returned to towing capacity. The
standards’ dependence on work factor
provides some incentive to increase
payload and towing capacity, both of
which are buyer-facing measures of
vehicle utility. In the agencies’
judgment, this provides reason to
assume that if vehicle mass is reduced,
manufacturers are likely to ‘‘return’’
some of the change to payload and/or
towing capacity. For this analysis, the
agencies have applied the following
assumptions:
• GVWR will be reduced by half the
amount by which curb weight is
reduced. In other words, 50 percent of
the curb weight reduction will be
returned to payload.
As a result, some applications of
vehicle mass reduction will produce no
compliance benefit at all, in cases where
the changes in ALVW are too small to
change test weight when rounding is
taken into account. On the other hand,
some other applications of vehicle mass
reduction will produce significantly
more compliance benefit than when
rounding is not taken into account, in
cases where even small changes in
ALVW are sufficient to cause vehicles’
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As mentioned above, NHTSA has also
revised the CAFE model to explicitly
account for the regulatory ‘‘binning’’ of
test weights used to certify light-duty
fuel economy and HD pickup and van
fuel consumption for purposes of
evaluating fleet-level compliance with
fuel economy and fuel consumption
standards. For HD pickups and vans,
test weight (TW) is based on adjusted
loaded vehicle weight (ALVW), which is
defined as the average of gross vehicle
weight rating (GVWR) and curb weight
(CW). TW values are then rounded,
resulting in TW ‘‘bins’’:
ALVW ≤ 4,000 lb.: TW rounded to
nearest 125 lb.
4,000 lb. < ALVW ≤ 5,500 lb.: TW
rounded to nearest 250 lb.
ALVW > 5,500 lb.: TW rounded to
nearest 500 lb.
This ‘‘binning’’ of TW is relevant to
calculation of fuel consumption
reductions accompanying mass
reduction. Model inputs for mass
reduction (as an applied technology) are
expressed in terms of a percentage
reduction of curb weight and an
accompanying estimate of the
percentage reduction in fuel
consumption, setting aside rounding of
test weight. Therefore, to account for
rounding of test weight, NHTSA has
modified these calculations as follows:
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inputs for today’s analysis de-emphasize
reliance on phase-in caps.
In this application of the CAFE
model, phase-in caps are used only for
the most advanced technologies
included in the analysis, i.e., SHEVs and
lean-burn GDI engines, considering that
these technologies are most likely to
involve implementation costs and risks
not otherwise accounted for in
corresponding input estimates of
technology cost. For these two
technologies, the agencies have applied
caps that begin at 3 percent (i.e., 3
percent of the manufacturer’s
production) in MY 2017, increase at 3
percent annually during the ensuing
nine years (reaching 30 percent in the
MY 2026), and subsequently increasing
at 5 percent annually for four years
(reaching 50 percent in MY 2030). Note
that the agencies did not feel that leanburn engines were feasible in the
timeframe of this rulemaking, so
decided to reject any model runs where
they were selected. Due to the cost
ineffectiveness of this technology, it was
never chosen. The agencies request
comment on the appropriateness of
these phase-in caps as proxies for
constraints that, though not monetized
by the agencies, nonetheless limit rates
at which these two technologies can
practicably be deployed, and on the
appropriateness of setting inputs to stop
applying phase-in caps to other
technologies in this analysis. Comments
on this issue should provide
information supporting any alternative
recommended inputs.
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• GCWR will not be reduced. In other
words, 100 percent of any GVWR
reduction will be returned to towing
capacity.
• GVWR/CW and GCWR/GVWR will
not increase beyond levels observed
among the majority of similar vehicles
(or, for outlier vehicles, initial values):
TABLE VI–16—RATIOS FOR MODIFYING GVW AND GCW AS A FUNCTION OF MASS REDUCTION
Group
Maximum ratios assumed enabled by
mass reduction
GVWR/CW
Unibody ........................................................................................................................................................
Gasoline pickups >13k GVWR ....................................................................................................................
Other gasoline pickups ................................................................................................................................
Diesel SRW pickups ....................................................................................................................................
All other ........................................................................................................................................................
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The first of two of these inputs are
specified along with standards for each
regulatory alternative, and the GVWR/
CW and GCWR/GVWR ‘‘caps’’ are
specified separately for each vehicle
model in the analysis fleet.
In addition, DOT has changed the
model to prevent HD pickup and van
GVWR from falling below 8,500 lbs
when mass reduction is applied
(because doing so would cause vehicles
to be reclassified as light-duty vehicles),
and to treat any additional mass for
hybrid electric vehicles as reducing
payload by the same amount (e.g., if
adding a strong HEV package to a
vehicle involves a 350 pound penalty,
GVWR is assumed to remain
unchanged, such that payload is also
reduced by 350 lbs).
The agencies invite comment on these
methods for estimating how changes in
vehicle mass may impact fuel
consumption, GVWR, and GCWR, and
on corresponding inputs to today’s
analysis.
(2) Development of the Analysis Fleet
As discussed above, both agencies
used DOT’s CAFE modeling system to
estimate technology costs and
application rates under each regulatory
alternative, including the no action
alternative (which reflects continuation
of previously-promulgated standards).
Impacts under each of the ‘‘action’’
alternatives are calculated on an
incremental basis relative to impacts
under the no action alternative. The
modeling system relies on many inputs,
including an analysis fleet. In order to
estimate the impacts of potential
standards, it is necessary to estimate the
composition of the future vehicle fleet.
Doing so enables estimation of the
extent to which each manufacturer may
need to add technology in response to
a given series of attribute-based
standards, accounting for the mix and
fuel consumption of vehicles in each
manufacturer’s regulated fleet. The
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agencies create an analysis fleet in order
to track the volumes and types of fuel
economy-improving and CO2-reducing
technologies that are already present in
the existing vehicle fleet. This aspect of
the analysis fleet helps to keep the
CAFE model from adding technologies
to vehicles that already have these
technologies, which would result in
‘‘double counting’’ of technologies’ costs
and benefits. An additional step
involved projecting the fleet sales into
MYs 2019–2030. This represents the
fleet volumes that the agencies believe
would exist in MYs 2019–2030. The
following presents an overview of the
information and methods applied to
develop the analysis fleet, and some
basic characteristics of that fleet.
The resultant analysis fleet is
provided in detail at NHTSA’s Web site,
along with all other inputs to and
outputs from today’s analysis. The
agencies invite comment on this
analysis fleet and, in particular, on any
other information that should be
reflected in an analysis fleet used to
update the agencies’ analysis for the
final rule. Also, the agencies also invites
comment on the potential expansion of
this analysis fleet such that the impacts
of new HD pickup and van standards
can be estimated within the context of
an integrated analysis of light-duty
vehicles and HD pickups and vans,
accounting for interactions between the
fleets.
(a) Data Sources
Most of the information about the
vehicles that make up the 2014 analysis
fleet was gathered from the 2014 PreModel Year Reports submitted to EPA
by the manufacturers under Phase 1 of
Fuel Efficiency and GHG Emission
Program for Medium- and Heavy-Duty
Trucks, MYs 2014–2018.
The major manufacturers of class 2b
and class 3 trucks (Chrysler, Ford and
GM) were asked to voluntarily submit
updates to their Pre-Model Year
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1.75
2.00
1.75
1.75
1.75
GCWR/GVWR
1.50
1.50
2.25
2.50
2.25
Reports. Updated data were provided by
Chrysler and GM. These updated data
were used in constructing the analysis
fleet for these manufacturers.
The agencies agreed to treat this
information as Confidential Business
Information (CBI) until the publication
of the proposed rule. This information
can be made public at this time because
by now all MY2014 vehicle models have
been produced, which makes data about
them essentially public information.
These data (by individual vehicle
configuration produced in MY2014)
include: Projected Production Volume/
MY2014 Sales, Drive Type, Axle Ratio,
Work Factor, Curb Weight, Test
Weight,359 GVWR, GCWR, Fuel
Consumption (gal/100 mile), engine
type (gasoline or diesel), engine
displacement, transmission type and
number of gears.
The column ‘‘Engine’’ of the PreModel Year report for each OEM was
copied to the column ‘‘Engine Code’’ of
the vehicle sheet of the CAFE model
market data input file. Values of
‘‘Engine’’ were changed to Engine Codes
for use in the CAFE model. The codes
indicated on the vehicle sheet map the
detailed engine data on the engine sheet
to the appropriate vehicle on the vehicle
sheet of the CAFE model input file.
The column ‘‘Trans Class’’ of the PreModel Year report for each OEM was
copied to the column ‘‘Transmission
Code’’ of the vehicle sheet of the market
data input file. Values of ‘‘Trans Class’’
were changed to Transmission Codes for
use in the CAFE model. The codes
indicated on the vehicle sheet map the
detailed transmission data on the
transmission sheet to the appropriate
vehicle on the vehicle sheet of the CAFE
model input file.
In addition to information about each
vehicle, the agencies need additional
359 Chrysler and GM did not provide test weights
in their submittals. Test weights were calculated as
the average of GVWR and curb weight rounded up
to the nearest 100 lb.
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information about the fuel economyimproving/CO2-reducing technologies
already on those vehicles in order to
assess how much and which
technologies to apply to determine a
path toward future compliance. Thus,
the agencies augmented this information
with publicly-available data that
includes more complete technology
descriptions. Specific engines and
transmissions associated with each
manufacturer’s trucks were identified
using their respective internet sites.
Detailed technical data on individual
engines and transmissions indicated on
the engine sheet and transmission sheet
of the CAFE model input file were then
obtained from manufacturer internet
sites, spec sheets and product literature,
Ward’s Automotive Group and other
commercial internet sites such as
cars.com, edmunds.com, and
motortrend.com. Specific additional
information included:
• ‘‘Fuel Economy on Secondary Fuel’’
was calculated as E85 = .74 gasoline fuel
economy, or B20 = .98 diesel fuel
economy. These values were duplicated
in the columns ‘‘Fuel Economy
(Ethanol-85)’’ and ‘‘Fuel Economy
(Biodiesel-20)’’ of the CAFE market data
input file.
• Values in the columns ‘‘Fuel Share
(Gasoline)’’, ‘‘Fuel Share (Ethanol-85)’’,
‘‘Fuel Share (Diesel),’’ and ‘‘Fuel Share
(Biodiesel-20)’’ are Volpe assumptions.
• The CAFE model also requires that
values of Origin, Regulatory Class,
Technology Class, Safety Class, and
Seating (Max) be present in the file in
order for the model to run. Placeholder
values were added in these columns.
• In addition to the data taken from
the OEM Pre Model Year submittals,
NHTSA added additional data for use
by the CAFE model. These included
Platform, Refresh Years, Redesign Years,
MSRP, Style, Structure and Fuel
Capacity.
• MSRP was obtained from
web2carz.com and the OEM Web sites.
• Fuel capacity was obtained from
OEM spec sheets and product literature.
• The Structure values (Ladder,
Unibody) used by the CAFE model were
added. These were determined from
OEM product literature and the
automotive press. It should be noted
that the new vans such as the Transit in
fact utilize a ladder/unibody structure.
Ford product literature uses the term
‘‘Uniladder’’ to describe the structure.
Vans based on this structure are noted
in the Vehicle Notes column of the
NHTSA input file.
• Style values used by the CAFE
model were also added: Chassis Cab,
Cutaway, Pickup and Van.
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(b) Vehicle Redesign Schedules and
Platforms
Product cadence in the Class 2b and
3 pickup market has historically ranged
from 7–9 years between major redesigns.
However, due to increasing competitive
pressures and consumer demands the
agency anticipates that manufacturers
will generally shift to shorter design
cycles resembling those of the light duty
market. Pickup truck manufacturers in
the Class 2b and 3 segments are shown
to adopt redesign cycles of six years,
allowing two redesigns prior to the end
of the regulatory period in 2025. The
agencies request comment on the
anticipated future use of redesign cycles
in this product segment.
The Class 2b and 3 van market has
changed markedly from five years ago.
Ford, Nissan, Ram and Daimler have
adopted vans of ‘‘Euro Van’’
appearance, and in many cases now use
smaller turbocharged gasoline or diesel
engines in the place of larger, naturallyaspirated V8s. The 2014 Model Year
used in this analysis represents a period
where most manufacturers, with the
exception of General Motors, have
recently introduced a completely
redesigned product after many years.
The van segment has historically been
one of the slowest to be redesigned of
any product segment, with some
products going two decades or more
between redesigns.
Due to new entrants in the field and
increased competition, the agencies
anticipate that most manufacturers will
increase the pace of product redesigns
in the van segment, but that they will
continue to trail other segments. The
cycle time used in this analysis is
approximately ten years between major
redesigns, allowing manufacturers only
one major redesign during the
regulatory period. The agencies request
comment on this anticipated product
design cycle.
Additional detail on product cadence
assumptions for specific manufacturers
is located in Chapter 10 of the draft RIA.
(c) Sales Volume Forecast
Since each manufacturer’s required
average fuel consumption and GHG
levels are sales-weighted averages of the
fuel economy/GHG targets across all
model offerings, sales volumes play a
critical role in estimating that burden.
The CAFE model requires a forecast of
sales volumes, at the vehicle modelvariant level, in order to simulate the
technology application necessary for a
manufacturer to achieve compliance in
each model year for which outcomes are
simulated.
For today’s analysis, the agencies
relied on the MY 2014 pre-model-year
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compliance submissions from
manufacturers to provide sales volumes
at the model level based on the level of
disaggregation in which the models
appear in the compliance data.
However, the agencies only use these
reported volumes without adjustment
for MY 2014. For all future model years,
we combine the manufacturer
submissions with sales projections from
the 2014 Annual Energy Outlook
Reference Case and IHS Automotive to
determine model variant level sales
volumes in future years.360 The
projected sales volumes by class that
appear in the 2014 Annual Energy
Outlook as a result of a collection of
assumptions about economic
conditions, demand for commercial
miles traveled, and technology
migration from light-duty pickup trucks
in response to the concurrent light-duty
CAFE/GHG standards. These are shown
in Chapter 2 of the draft RIA.
For this analysis, the agencies have
limited this analysis fleet to class 2b and
3 HD pickups and vans. However,
especially considering interactions
between the light-duty and HD pickup
and van fleets (e.g., MDPVs being
included in the light-duty fleet), the
agencies are evaluating the potential to
analyze the fleets in an integrated
fashion for the final rule, and invite
comment on the extent to which doing
so could provide more realistic
estimates of the incremental impacts of
new standards applicable HD pickups
and vans.
The projection of total sales volumes
for the Class 2b and 3 market segment
was based on the total volumes in the
2014 AEO Reference Case. For the
purposes of this analysis, the AEO2014
calendar year volumes have been used
to represent the corresponding modelyear volumes. While AEO2014 provides
enough resolution in its projections to
separate the volumes for the Class 2b
and 3 segments, the agencies deferred to
the vehicle manufacturers and chose to
rely on the relative shares present in the
pre-model-year compliance data.
The relative sales share by vehicle
type (van or pickup truck, in this case)
was derived from a sales forecast that
the agencies purchased from IHS
Automotive, and applied to the total
volumes in the AEO2014 projection.
Table VI–17 shows the implied shares of
the total new 2b/3 vehicle market
broken down by manufacturer and
vehicle type.
360 Tables from AEO’s forecast are available at
https://www.eia.gov/oiaf/aeo/tablebrowser/. The
agencies also made use of the IHS Automotive Light
Vehicle Production Forecast (August 2014).
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VerDate Sep<11>2014
Daimler .........................................................
Fiat ................................................................
Ford ..............................................................
General Motors .............................................
Nissan ...........................................................
Daimler .........................................................
Fiat ................................................................
Ford ..............................................................
General Motors .............................................
Nissan ...........................................................
Manufacturer
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Van ...........................
Van ...........................
Van ...........................
Van ...........................
Van ...........................
Pickup .......................
Pickup .......................
Pickup .......................
Pickup .......................
Pickup .......................
Style
2015
(%)
3
2
16
12
2
0
14
28
23
0
2016
(%)
3
2
17
12
2
0
14
27
23
0
2017
(%)
3
2
17
11
2
0
14
30
21
0
2018
(%)
3
2
17
12
2
0
14
30
21
0
Model year market share
TABLE VI–17—IHS AUTOMOTIVE MARKET SHARE FORECAST FOR 2b/3 VEHICLES
2019
(%)
3
2
18
13
2
0
11
30
21
0
2020
(%)
3
2
18
13
2
0
12
27
22
0
2021
(%)
3
3
18
13
2
0
12
26
23
0
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Within those broadly defined market
shares, volumes at the manufacturer/
model-variant level were constructed by
applying the model-variant’s share of
manufacturer sales in the pre-modelyear compliance data for the relevant
vehicle style, and multiplied by the total
volume estimated for that manufacturer
and that style.
After building out a set of initial
future sales volumes based on the
sources described above, the agencies
attempted to incorporate new
information about changes in sales mix
that would not be captured by either the
existing sales forecasts or the simulated
technology changes in vehicle
platforms. In particular, Ford has
announced intentions to phase out their
existing Econoline vans, gradually
shifting volumes to the new Transit
platform for some model variants
(notably chassis cabs and cutaways
variants) and eliminating offerings
outright for complete Econoline vans as
early as model year 2015. In the case of
complete Econoline vans, the volumes
for those vehicles were allocated to
MY2015 Transit vehicles based on
assumptions about likely production
splits for the powertrains of the new
Transit platform. The volumes for
complete Econoline vans were shifted at
ratios of 50 percent, 35 percent, and 15
percent for 3.7 L, 3.5 L Eco-boost, and
3.2 L diesel, respectively. Within each
powertrain, sales were allocated based
on the percentage shares present in the
pre-model-year compliance data. The
chassis cab and cutaway variants of the
Econolines were phased out linearly
between MY2015 and MY2020, at
which time the Econolines cease to exist
in any form and all corresponding
volume resides with the Transits.
(3) Additional Technology Cost and
Effectiveness Inputs
In addition to the base technology
cost and effectiveness inputs described
in VI. of this preamble, the CAFE model
has some additional cost and
effectiveness inputs, described as
follows.
The CAFE model accommodates
inputs to adjust accumulated
effectiveness under circumstances when
combining multiple technologies could
result in underestimation or
overestimation of total incremental
effectiveness relative to an ‘‘unevolved’’
baseline vehicle. These so-called
synergy factors may be positive, where
the combination of the technologies
results in greater improvement than the
additive improvement of each
technology, or negative, where the
combination of the technologies is lower
than the additive improvement of each
technology. The synergy factors used in
this analysis are described in VI–18.
TABLE VI–18—TECHNOLOGY PAIR EFFECTIVENESS SYNERGY FACTORS FOR HD PICKUPS AND VANS
Adjustment
(%)
Technology pair
8SPD/CCPS ..............................................................
8SPD/DEACO ............................................................
8SPD/ICP ..................................................................
8SPD/TRBDS1 ..........................................................
AERO2/SHEV1 ..........................................................
CCPS/IACC1 .............................................................
CCPS/IACC2 .............................................................
DCP/IACC1 ................................................................
DCP/IACC2 ................................................................
DEACD/IATC .............................................................
DEACO/IACC2 ..........................................................
DEACO/MHEV ...........................................................
DEACS/IATC .............................................................
DTURB/IATC .............................................................
DTURB/MHEV ...........................................................
DTURB/SHEV1 ..........................................................
DVVLD/8SPD ............................................................
DVVLD/IACC2 ...........................................................
DVVLD/IATC ..............................................................
DVVLD/MHEV ...........................................................
DVVLS/8SPD .............................................................
DVVLS/IACC2 ...........................................................
DVVLS/IATC ..............................................................
DVVLS/MHEV ............................................................
....................................................................................
....................................................................................
....................................................................................
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Technology pair
¥4.60
¥4.60
¥4.60
4.60
1.40
¥0.40
¥0.60
¥0.40
¥0.60
¥0.10
¥0.80
¥0.70
¥0.10
1.00
¥0.60
¥1.00
¥0.60
¥0.80
¥0.60
¥0.70
¥0.60
¥0.80
¥0.50
¥0.70
........................
........................
........................
IATC/CCPS ...............................................................
IATC/DEACO .............................................................
IATC/ICP ...................................................................
IATC/TRBDS1 ...........................................................
MR1/CCPS ................................................................
MR1/DCP ..................................................................
MR1/VVA ...................................................................
MR2/ROLL1 ...............................................................
MR2/SHEV1 ..............................................................
NAUTO/CCPS ...........................................................
NAUTO/DEACO ........................................................
NAUTO/ICP ...............................................................
NAUTO/SAX ..............................................................
NAUTO/TRBDS1 .......................................................
ROLL1/AERO1 ..........................................................
ROLL1/SHEV1 ..........................................................
ROLL2/AERO2 ..........................................................
SHFTOPT/MHEV .......................................................
TRBDS1/MHEV .........................................................
TRBDS1/SHEV1 ........................................................
TRBDS1/VVA ............................................................
TRBDS2/EPS ............................................................
TRBDS2/IACC2 .........................................................
TRBDS2/NAUTO .......................................................
VVA/IACC1 ................................................................
VVA/IACC2 ................................................................
VVA/IATC ..................................................................
The CAFE model also accommodates
inputs to adjust accumulated
incremental costs under circumstances
when the application sequence could
result in underestimation or
overestimation of total incremental costs
relative to an ‘‘unevolved’’ baseline
vehicle. For today’s analysis, the
agencies have applied one such
adjustment, increasing the cost of
medium-sized gasoline engines by $513
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in cases where turbocharging and
engine downsizing is applied with
variable valve actuation.
The analysis performed using Method
A also applied cost inputs to address
some costs encompassed neither by the
agencies’ estimates of the direct cost to
apply these technologies, nor by the
agencies’ methods for ‘‘marking up’’
these costs to arrive at increases in the
new vehicle purchase costs. To account
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Adjustment
(%)
¥1.30
¥1.30
¥1.30
1.30
0.40
0.40
0.40
¥0.10
¥0.40
¥1.70
¥1.70
¥1.70
¥0.40
1.70
0.10
1.10
0.20
¥0.30
0.80
¥3.30
¥8.00
¥0.30
¥0.30
¥0.50
¥0.40
¥0.60
¥0.60
for the additional costs that could be
incurred if a technology is applied and
then quickly replaced, the CAFE model
accommodates inputs specifying a
‘‘stranded capital cost’’ specific to each
technology. For this analysis, the model
was run with inputs to apply about $78
of additional cost (per engine) if
gasoline engine turbocharging and
downsizing (separately for each ‘‘level’’
considered) is applied and then
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Federal Register / Vol. 80, No. 133 / Monday, July 13, 2015 / Proposed Rules
immediately replaced, declining
steadily to zero by the tenth model year
following initial application of the
technology. The model also
accommodates inputs specifying any
additional changes owners might incur
in maintenance and post-warranty
repair costs. For this analysis, the model
was run with inputs indicating that
vehicles equipped with less rollingresistant tires could incur additional tire
replacement costs equivalent to $21–$23
(depending on model year) in additional
costs to purchase the new vehicle. The
agencies did not, however, include
inputs specifying any potential changes
repair costs that might accompany
application of any of the above
technologies. A sensitivity analysis
using Method A, discussed below,
includes a case in which repair costs are
estimated using factors consistent with
those underlying the indirect cost
multipliers used to mark up direct costs
for the agencies’ central analysis.
The agencies invite comment on all
efficacy and cost inputs involved in
today’s analysis and request that
commenters provide any additional data
or forward-looking estimates that could
be used to support alternative inputs,
including those related to costs beyond
those reflected in the cost to purchase
new vehicles.
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(4) Other Analysis Inputs
In addition to the inputs summarized
above, the analysis of potential
standards for HD pickups and vans
makes use of a range of other estimates
and assumptions specified as inputs to
the CAFE modeling system. Some
significant inputs (e.g., estimates of
future fuel prices) also applicable to
other MDHD segments are discussed
below in Section IX. Others more
specific to the analysis of HD pickups
and vans are as follows:
(a) Vehicle Survival and Mileage
Accumulation:
Today’s analysis estimates the travel,
fuel consumption, and emissions over
the useful lives of vehicles produced
during model years 2014–2030. Doing
so requires initial estimates of these
vehicles’ survival rates (i.e., shares
expected to remain in service) and
mileage accumulation rates (i.e.,
anticipated annual travel by vehicles
remaining in service), both as a function
of vehicle vintage (i.e., age). These
estimates are based on an empirical
analysis of changes in the fleet of
registered vehicles over time, in the case
of survival rates, and usage data
collected as part of the last Vehicle In
Use Survey (the 2002 VIUS), in the case
of mileage accumulation.
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(b) Rebound Effect
Expressed as an elasticity of mileage
accumulation with respect to the fuel
cost per mile of operation, the agencies
have applied a rebound effect of 10
percent for today’s analysis.
(c) On-Road ‘‘Gap’’
The model was run with a 20 percent
adjustment to reflect differences
between on-road and laboratory
performance.
(d) Fleet Population Profile
Though not reported here, cumulative
fuel consumption and CO2 emissions
are presented in the accompanying draft
EIS, and these calculations utilize
estimates of the numbers of vehicles
produced in each model year remaining
in service in calendar year 2014. The
initial age distribution of the registered
vehicle population in 2014 is based on
vehicle registration data acquired by
NHTSA from R.L. Polk Company.
(e) Past Fuel Consumption Levels
Though not reported here, cumulative
fuel consumption and CO2 emissions
are presented in the accompanying draft
EIS, and these calculations require
estimates of the performance of vehicles
produced prior to model year 2014.
Consistent with AEO 2014, the model
was run with the assumption that
gasoline and diesel HD pickups and
vans averaged 14.9 mpg and 18.6 mpg,
respectively, with gasoline versions
averaging about 48 percent of
production.
(f) Long-Term Fuel Consumption Levels
Though not reported here, longer-term
estimates of fuel consumption and
emissions are presented in the
accompanying draft EIS. These
estimates include calculations involving
vehicle produced after MY 2030 and,
consistent with AEO 2014, the model
was run with the assumption that fuel
consumption and CO2 emission levels
will continue to decline at 0.05 percent
annually (compounded) after MY 2030.
(g) Payback Period
To estimate in what sequence and to
what degree manufacturers might add
fuel-saving technologies to their
respective fleets, the CAFE model
iteratively ranks remaining
opportunities (i.e., applications of
specific technologies to specific
vehicles) in terms of effective cost,
primary components of which are the
technology cost and the avoided fuel
outlays, attempting to minimize
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effective costs incurred.361 Depending
on inputs, the model also assumes
manufacturers may improve fuel
consumption beyond requirements
insofar as doing so will involve
applications of technology at negative
effective cost—i.e., technology
application for which buyers’ up-front
costs are quickly paid back through
avoided fuel outlays. This calculation
includes only fuel outlays occurring
within a specified payback period. For
this analysis, a payback period of 6
months was applied for the dynamic
baseline case, or Alternative 1b. Thus,
for example, a manufacturer already in
compliance with standards is projected
to apply a fuel consumption
improvement projected to cost $250
(i.e., as a cost that could be charged to
the buyer at normal profit to the
manufacturer) and reduce fuel costs by
$500 in the first year of vehicle
operation. The agencies have conducted
the same analysis applying a payback
period of 0 months for the flat baseline
case, or Alternative 1a.
(h) Civil Penalties
EPCA and EISA require that a
manufacturer pay civil penalties if it
does not have enough credits to cover a
shortfall with one or both of the lightduty CAFE standards in a model year.
While these provisions do not apply to
HD pickups and vans, at this time, the
CAFE model will show civil penalties
owed in cases where available
technologies and credits are estimated
to be insufficient for a manufacturer to
achieve compliance with a standard.
These model-reported estimates have
been excluded from this analysis.
(i) Coefficients for Fatality Calculations
Today’s analysis considered the
potential effects on crash safety of the
technologies manufacturers may apply
to their vehicles to meet each of the
regulatory alternatives. NHTSA research
has shown that vehicle mass reduction
affects overall societal fatalities
associated with crashes 362 and, most
relevant to this proposal, mass
reduction in heavier light- and mediumduty vehicles has an overall beneficial
effect on societal fatalities. Reducing the
mass of a heavier vehicle involved in a
crash with another vehicle(s) makes it
less likely there will be fatalities among
the occupants of the other vehicles. In
addition to the effects of mass
reduction, the analysis anticipates that
361 Volpe CAFE Model, available at https://
www.nhtsa.gov/fuel-economy.
362 U.S. DOT/NHTSA, Relationships Between
Fatality Risk Mass and Footprint in MY 2000–2007
PC and LTVs, ID: NHTSA–2010–0131–0336, Posted
August 21, 2012.
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the proposed standards, by reducing the
cost of driving HD pickups and vans,
would lead to increased travel by these
vehicles and, therefore, more crashes
involving these vehicles. The Method A
analysis considers overall impacts
considering both of these factors, using
a methodology similar to NHTSA’s
analyses for the MYs 2017—2025 CAFE
and GHG emission standards.
The Method A analysis includes
estimates of the extent to which HD
pickups and vans produced during MYs
2014–2030 may be involved in fatal
crashes, considering the mass, survival,
and mileage accumulation of these
vehicles, taking into account changes in
mass and mileage accumulation under
each regulatory alternative. These
calculations make use of the same
coefficients applied to light trucks in the
MYs 2017–2025 CAFE rulemaking
analysis. Baseline rates of involvement
in fatal crashes are 13.03 and 13.24
fatalities per billion miles for vehicles
with initial curb weights above and
below 4,594 lbs, respectively.
Considering that the data underlying the
corresponding statistical analysis
included observations through calendar
year 2010, these rates are reduced by 9.6
percent to account for subsequent
impacts of recent Federal Motor Vehicle
Safety Standards (FMVSS) and
anticipated behavioral changes (e.g.,
continued increases in seat belt use).
For vehicles above 4,594 lbs—i.e., the
majority of the HD pickup and van
fleet—mass reduction is estimated to
reduce the net incidence of highway
fatalities by 0.34 percent per 100 lbs of
removed curb weight. For the few HD
pickups and vans below 4,594 lbs, mass
reduction is estimated to increase the
net incidence of highway fatalities by
0.52 percent per 100 lbs. Consistent
with DOT guidance, the social cost of
highway fatalities is estimated using a
value of statistical life (VSL) of $9.36m
in 2014, increasing thereafter at 1.18
percent annually.
(j) Compliance Credit Provisions
Today’s analysis accounts for the
potential to over comply with standards
and thereby earn compliance credits,
applying these credits to ensuring
compliance requirements. In doing so,
the agencies treat any unused carriedforward credits as expiring after five
model years, consistent with current
and proposed standards. For today’s
analysis, the agencies are not estimating
the potential to ‘‘borrow’’—i.e., to carry
credits back to past model years.
(k) Emission Factors
While CAFE model calculates
vehicular CO2 emissions directly on a
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per-gallon basis using fuel consumption
and fuel properties (density and carbon
content), the model calculates emissions
of other pollutants (methane, nitrogen
oxides, ozone precursors, carbon
monoxide, sulfur dioxide, particulate
matter, and air toxics) on a per-mile
basis. In doing so, the Method A
analysis used corresponding emission
factors estimated using EPA’s MOVES
model.363 To estimate emissions
(including CO2) from upstream
processes involved in producing,
distributing, and delivering fuel,
NHTSA has applied emission factors—
all specified on a gram per gallon
basis—derived from Argonne National
Laboratory’s GREET model.364
(l) Refueling Time Benefits
To estimate the value of time savings
associated with vehicle refueling, the
Method A analysis used estimates that
an average refueling event involves
refilling 60 percent of the tank’s
capacity over the course of 3.5 minutes,
at an hourly cost of $27.22.
(m) External Costs of Travel
Changes in vehicle travel will entail
economic externalities. To estimate
these costs, the Method A analysis used
estimates that congestion-, accident-,
and noise-related externalities will total
5.1 ¢/mi., 2.8 ¢/mi., and 0.1 ¢/mi.,
respectively.
(n) Ownership and Operating Costs
Method A results predict that the total
cost of vehicle ownership and operation
will change not just due to changes in
vehicle price and fuel outlays, but also
due to some other costs likely to vary
with vehicle price. To estimate these
costs, NHTSA has applied factors of 5.5
percent (of price) for taxes and fees, 15.3
percent for financing, 19.2 percent for
insurance, 1.9 percent for relative value
loss. The Method A analysis also
estimates that average vehicle resale
value will increase by 25 percent of any
increase in new vehicle price.
(5) DOT CAFE Model Analysis of
Impacts of Regulatory Alternatives for
HD Pickups and Vans
(a) Industry Impacts
The agencies’ analysis fleet provides a
starting point for estimating the extent
to which manufacturers might add fuelsaving (and, therefore, CO2-avoiding)
technologies under various regulatory
363 EPA MOVES model available at https://
www.epa.gov/otaq/models/moves/index.htm (last
accessed Feb 23, 2015).
364 GREET (Greenhouse Gases, Regulated
Emissions, and Energy Use in Transportation)
Model, Argonne National Laboratory, https://
greet.es.anl.gov/.
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alternatives, including the no-action
alternative that defines a baseline
against which to measure estimated
impacts of new standards. The analysis
fleet is a forward-looking projection of
production of new HD pickups and
vans, holding vehicle characteristics
(e.g., technology content and fuel
consumption levels) constant at model
year 2014 levels, and adjusting
production volumes based on recent
DOE and commercially-available
forecasts. This analysis fleet includes
some significant changes relative to the
market characterization that was used to
develop the Phase 1 standards
applicable starting in model year 2014;
in particular, the analysis fleet includes
some new HD vans (e.g., Ford’s Transit
and Fiat/Chrysler’s Promaster) that are
considerably more fuel-efficient than
HD vans these manufacturers have
previously produced for the U.S.
market.
While the proposed standards are
scheduled to begin in model year 2021,
the requirements they define are likely
to influence manufacturers’ planning
decisions several years in advance. This
is true in light-duty planning, but
accentuated by the comparatively long
redesign cycles and small number of
models and platforms offered for sale in
the 2b/3 market segment. Additionally,
manufacturers will respond to the cost
and efficacy of available fuel
consumption improvements, the price
of fuel, and the requirements of the
Phase 1 standards that specify
maximum allowable average fuel
consumption and GHG levels for
MY2014–MY2018 HD pickups and vans
(the final standard for MY2018 is held
constant for model years 2019 and
2020). The forward-looking nature of
product plans that determine which
vehicle models will be offered in the
model years affected by the proposed
standards lead to additional technology
application to vehicles in the analysis
fleet that occurs in the years prior to the
start of the proposed standards. From
the industry perspective, this means
that manufacturers will incur costs to
comply with the proposed standards in
the baseline and that the total cost of the
proposed regulations will include some
costs that occur prior to their start, and
represent incremental changes over a
world in which manufacturers will have
already modified their vehicle offerings
compared to today.
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TABLE VI–19—MY2021 BASELINE
COSTS FOR MANUFACTURERS IN 2b/
3 MARKET SEGMENT IN THE DYNAMIC BASELINE, OR ALTERNATIVE
1b
Average
technology
cost
($)
Manufacturer
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Chrysler/Fiat .....
Daimler .............
Ford ..................
General Motors
Nissan ...............
Industry .............
Total cost
increase
($m)
275
18
258
782
282
442
06:45 Jul 11, 2015
TABLE VI–20—MY2021 BASELINE
COSTS FOR HD PICKUPS AND VANS
IN THE FLAT BASELINE, OR ALTERNATIVE 1A
27
0
78
191
3
300
As Table VI–19 shows, the industry as
a whole is expected to add about $440
of new technology to each new vehicle
model by 2021 under the no-action
alternative defined by the Phase 1
standards. Reflecting differences in
projected product offerings in the
analysis fleet, some manufacturers
(notably Daimler) are significantly less
constrained by the Phase 1 standards
than others and face lower cost
increases as a result. General Motors
(GM) shows the largest increase in
average vehicle cost, but results for
GM’s closest competitors (Ford and
Chrysler/Fiat) do not include the costs
of their recent van redesigns, which are
already present in the analysis fleet
(discussed in greater detail below).
The above results reflect the
assumption that manufacturers having
achieved compliance with standards
might act as if buyers are willing to pay
for further fuel consumption
improvements that ‘‘pay back’’ within 6
months (i.e., those improvements whose
incremental costs are exceeded by
savings on fuel within the first six
months of ownership). It is also possible
that manufacturers will choose not to
migrate cost-effective technologies to
the 2b/3 market segment from similar
vehicles in the light-duty market. To
examine this possibility, all regulatory
alternatives were also analyzed using
the DOT CAFE model (Method A) with
a 0-month payback period in lieu of the
6-month payback period discussed
above. (A sensitivity analysis using
Method A, discussed below, also
explores longer payback periods, as well
as the combined effect of payback
period and fuel price on vehicle design
decisions). Resultant technology costs in
model year 2021 results for the noaction alternative, summarized in Table
VI–20 below, are quite similar to those
VerDate Sep<11>2014
shown above for the 6-month payback
period. Due to the similarity between
the two baseline characterizations,
results in the following discussion
represent differences relative to only the
6-month payback baseline.
Jkt 235001
Manufacturer
Average
technology
cost
($)
Chrysler/Fiat .....
Daimler .............
Ford ..................
General Motors
Nissan ...............
Industry .............
268
0
248
767
257
431
Total cost
increase
($m)
27
0
75
188
3
292
The results below represent the
impacts of several regulatory
alternatives, including those defined by
the proposed standards, as incremental
changes over the baseline, where the
baseline is defined as the state of the
world in the absence of the proposed
regulatory action. Large-scale,
macroeconomic conditions like fuel
prices are constant across all
alternatives, including the baseline, as
are the fuel economy improvements
under the no-action alternative defined
by the Phase 1 MDHD rulemaking that
covers model years 2014–2018 and is
constant from model year 2018 through
2020. In the baseline scenario, the Phase
1 standards are assumed to remain in
place and at 2018 levels throughout the
analysis (i.e. MY 2030). The only
difference between the definitions of the
alternatives is the stringency of the
proposed standards starting in MY 2021
and continuing through either MY 2025
or MY 2027, and all of the differences
in outcomes across alternatives are
attributable to differences in the
standards.
The standards vary in stringency
across regulatory alternatives (1–5), but
as discussed above, all of the standards
are based on the curve developed in the
Phase 1 standards that relate fuel
economy and GHG emissions to a
vehicle’s work factor. The alternatives
considered here represent different rates
of annual increase in the curve defined
for model year 2018, growing from a 0
percent annual increase (Alternative 1,
the baseline or ‘‘no-action’’ alternative)
up to a 4 percent annual increase
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40373
(Alternative 5). Table VI–21 shows a
summary 365 of outcomes by alternative
incremental to the baseline (Alternative
1b) for Model Year 2030 366, with the
exception of technology penetration
rates, which are absolute.
The technologies applied by the CAFE
model have been grouped (in most
cases) to give readers a general sense of
which types of technology are applied
more frequently than others, and are
more likely to be offered in new class
2b/3 vehicles once manufacturers are
fully compliant with the standards in
the alternative. Model year 2030 was
chosen to account for technology
application that occurs once the
standards have stabilized, but
manufacturers are still redesigning
products to achieve compliance—
generating technology costs and benefits
in those model years. The summaries of
technology penetration are also
intended to reflect the relationship
between technology application and
cost increases across the alternatives.
The table rows present the degree to
which specific technologies will be
present in new class 2b and class 3
vehicles in 2030, and correspond to:
Variable valve timing (VVT) and/or
variable valve lift (VVL), cylinder
deactivation, direct injection, engine
turbocharging, 8-speed automatic
transmissions, electric power-steering
and accessory improvements, microhybridization (which reduces engine
idle, but does not assist propulsion), full
hybridization (integrated starter
generator or strong hybrid that assists
propulsion and recaptures braking
energy), and aerodynamic
improvements to the vehicle shape. In
addition to the technologies in the
following tables, there are some lowercomplexity technologies that have high
market penetration across all the
alternatives and manufacturers; low
rolling-resistance tires, low friction
lubricants, and reduced engine friction,
for example.
365 NHTSA generated hundreds of outputs related
to economic and environmental impacts, each
available technology, and the costs associated with
the rule. A more comprehensive treatment of these
outputs appears in Chapter 10 of the draft RIA.
366 The DOT CAFE model estimates that redesign
schedules will ‘‘straddle’’ model year 2027, the
latest year for which the agencies are proposing
increases in the stringency of fuel consumption and
GHG standards. Considering also that today’s
analysis estimates some earning and application of
‘‘carried forward’’ compliance credits, the model
was run extending the analysis through model year
2030.
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TABLE VI–21—SUMMARY OF HD PICKUPS AND VANS ALTERNATIVES’ IMPACT ON INDUSTRY VERSUS THE DYNAMIC
BASELINE, ALTERNATIVE 1b
Alternative
2
Annual Stringency Increase .............................................................................
Stringency Increase Through MY ....................................................................
Total Stringency Increase ................................................................................
3
2.0%/y
2025
9.6%
4
5
2.5%/y
2027
16.2%
3.5%/y
2025
16.3%
4.0%/y
2025
18.5%
20.57
20.61
20.57
20.83
21.14
21.27
4.86
4.85
4.86
4.80
4.73
4.70
495
491
458
458
458
453
446
444
46
29
17
55
67
54
0
0
36
46
21
25
63
96
80
0
8
78
46
21
31
63
96
79
10
35
78
46
21
32
63
97
79
13
51
78
239
3.7
243
3.7
325
5.0
313
4.8
1,348
1,019
31
1,655
1,251
34
2,080
1,572
38
Average Fuel Economy (miles per gallon)
Required ..........................................................................................................
Achieved ..........................................................................................................
19.04
19.14
Average Fuel Consumption (gallons/100 mi.)
Required ..........................................................................................................
Achieved ..........................................................................................................
5.25
5.22
Average Greenhouse Gas Emissions (g/mi)
Required ..........................................................................................................
Achieved ..........................................................................................................
Technology Penetration (%)
VVT and/or VVL ...............................................................................................
Cylinder Deac ..................................................................................................
Direct Injection .................................................................................................
Turbocharging ..................................................................................................
8-Speed AT ......................................................................................................
EPS, Accessories ............................................................................................
Stop Start .........................................................................................................
Hybridization a ..................................................................................................
Aero. Improvements ........................................................................................
Mass Reduction (vs. No-Action)
CW (lb.) ............................................................................................................
CW (%) ............................................................................................................
Technology Cost (vs. No-Action)
Average ($) b ....................................................................................................
Total ($m) c ......................................................................................................
Payback period (m) c .......................................................................................
578
437
25
ebenthall on DSK3VPTVN1PROD with MISCELLANEOUS
Notes:
a Includes mild hybrids (ISG) and strong HEVs.
b Values used in Methods A & B.
c Values used in Method A, calculated using a 3% discount rate.
In general, the model projects that the
standards would cause manufacturers to
produce HD pickups and vans that are
lighter, more aerodynamic, and more
technologically complex across all the
alternatives. As Table VI–21 shows,
there is a difference between the
relatively small increases in required
fuel economy and average incremental
technology cost between the
alternatives, suggesting that the
challenge of improving fuel
consumption and CO2 emissions
accelerates as stringency increases (i.e.,
that there may be a ‘‘knee’’ in the
relationship between technology cost
and reductions in fuel consumption/
GHG emissions). Despite the fact that
the required average fuel consumption
level changes by about 3 percent
between Alternative 4 and Alternative 5,
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average technology cost increases by
more than 25 percent. These differences
help illustrate the clustered character of
this market segment, where relatively
small increases in fuel economy can
lead to much larger cost increases if
entire platforms must be changed in
response to the standards.
The contrast between alternatives 3
and 4 is even more prominent, with an
identical required fuel economy
improvement leading to price increases
greater than 20 percent based on the
more rapid rate of increase and shorter
time span of Alternative 4, which
achieves all of its increases by MY 2025
while Alternative 3 continues to
increase at a slower rate until MY 2027.
Despite these differences, the increase
in average payback period when moving
from Alternative 3 to Alternative 4 to
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Alternative 5 is fairly constant at around
an additional three months for each
jump in stringency.
Manufacturers offer few models,
typically only a pickup truck and/or a
cargo van, and while there are a large
number of variants of each model, the
degree of component sharing across the
variants can make diversified
technology application either
economically impractical or impossible.
This forces manufacturers to apply some
technologies more broadly in order to
achieve compliance than they might do
in other market segments (passenger
cars, for example). This difference
between broad and narrow
application—where some technologies
must be applied to entire platforms,
while some can be applied to individual
model variants—also explains why
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certain technology penetration rates
decrease between alternatives of
increasing stringency (cylinder
deactivation or mass reductions in Table
VI–21, for example). For those cases,
narrowly applying a more advanced
(and costly) technology can be a more
cost effective path to compliance and
lead to reductions in the amount of
lower-complexity technology that is
applied.
One driver of the change in
technology cost between Alternative 3
and Alternative 4 is the amount of
hybridization projected to result from
the implementation of the standards.
While only about 5 percent full
hybridization (defined as either
integrated starter-generator or strong
hybrid) is expected to be needed to
comply with Alternative 3, the higher
rate of increase and compressed
schedule moving from Alternative 3 to
Alternative 4 is enough to increase the
percentage of the fleet adopting full
hybridization by a factor of two. To the
extent that manufacturers are concerned
about introducing hybrid vehicles in the
2b and 3 market, it is worth noting that
new vehicles subject to Alternative 3
achieve the same fuel economy as new
vehicle subject to Alternative 4 by 2030,
with less hybridization required to
achieve the improvement.
The alternatives also lead to
important differences in outcomes at the
manufacturer level, both from the
industry average and from each other.
General Motors, Ford, and Chrysler
(Fiat), are expected to have
approximately 95 percent of the 2b/3
new vehicle market during the years
that the proposed standards are being
phased in. Due to their importance to
this market and the similarities between
their model offerings, these three
manufacturers are discussed together
and a summary of the way each is
impacted by the standards appears
below in Table VI–22, Table VI–23, and
Table VI–24 for General Motors, Ford,
and Chrysler/Fiat, respectively.
TABLE VI–22—SUMMARY OF IMPACTS ON GENERAL MOTORS BY 2030 IN THE HD PICKUP AND VAN MARKET VERSUS THE
DYNAMIC BASELINE, ALTERNATIVE 1b
Alternative
2
Annual Stringency Increase .............................................................................
Stringency Increase Through MY ....................................................................
3
2.0%/y
2025
4
5
2.5%/y
2027
3.5%/y
2025
4.0%/y
2025
19.96
19.95
20
20.24
20.53
20.51
5.01
5.01
5
4.94
4.87
4.87
507
505
467
468
467
461
455
455
64
47
18
53
36
100
0
0
100
64
47
18
53
100
100
0
19
100
64
47
36
53
100
100
2
79
100
64
47
36
53
100
100
0
100
100
325
5.3
161
2.6
158
2.6
164
2.7
1,706
465
2,244
611
2,736
746
Average Fuel Economy (miles per gallon)
Required ..........................................................................................................
Achieved ..........................................................................................................
18.38
18.43
Average Fuel Consumption (gallons/100 mi.)
Required ..........................................................................................................
Achieved ..........................................................................................................
5.44
5.42
Average Greenhouse Gas Emissions (g/mi)
Required ..........................................................................................................
Achieved ..........................................................................................................
Technology Penetration (%)
VVT and/or VVL ...............................................................................................
Cylinder Deac ..................................................................................................
Direct Injection .................................................................................................
Turbocharging ..................................................................................................
8-Speed AT ......................................................................................................
EPS, Accessories ............................................................................................
Stop Start .........................................................................................................
Hybridization ....................................................................................................
Aero. Improvements ........................................................................................
Mass Reduction (vs. No-Action)
CW (lb.) ............................................................................................................
CW (%) ............................................................................................................
Technology Cost (vs. No-Action)
ebenthall on DSK3VPTVN1PROD with MISCELLANEOUS
Average ($) a ....................................................................................................
Total ($m, undiscounted) b ...............................................................................
785
214
Notes:
a Values used in Methods A & B.
b Values used in Method A, calculated at a 3% discount rate.
TABLE VI–23—SUMMARY OF IMPACTS ON FORD BY 2030 IN THE HD PICKUP AND VAN MARKET VERSUS THE DYNAMIC
BASELINE, ALTERNATIVE 1b
Alternative
2
Annual Stringency Increase .............................................................................
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2.0%/y
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2.5%/y
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3.5%/y
4.0%/y
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TABLE VI–23—SUMMARY OF IMPACTS ON FORD BY 2030 IN THE HD PICKUP AND VAN MARKET VERSUS THE DYNAMIC
BASELINE, ALTERNATIVE 1b—Continued
Alternative
2
3
Stringency Increase Through MY ....................................................................
2025
4
5
2027
2025
2025
20.96
21.04
20.92
21.28
21.51
21.8
4.77
4.75
4.78
4.70
4.65
4.59
485
482
449
447
450
443
438
433
34
18
16
51
100
41
0
0
0
34
0
34
69
100
62
0
2
59
34
0
34
69
100
59
20
14
59
34
0
34
69
100
59
29
30
59
210
3.2
202
3
379
5.7
356
5.3
1,110
372
1,353
454
1,801
604
Average Fuel Economy (miles per gallon)
Required ..........................................................................................................
Achieved ..........................................................................................................
19.42
19.5
Average Fuel Consumption (gallons/100 mi.)
Required ..........................................................................................................
Achieved ..........................................................................................................
5.15
5.13
Average Greenhouse Gas Emissions (g/mi)
Required ..........................................................................................................
Achieved ..........................................................................................................
Technology Penetration (%)
VVT and/or VVL ...............................................................................................
Cylinder Deac ..................................................................................................
Direct Injection .................................................................................................
Turbocharging ..................................................................................................
8-Speed AT ......................................................................................................
EPS, Accessories ............................................................................................
Stop Start .........................................................................................................
Hybridization ....................................................................................................
Aero. Improvements ........................................................................................
Mass Reduction (vs. No-Action)
CW (lb.) ............................................................................................................
CW (%) ............................................................................................................
Technology Cost (vs. No-Action)
Average ($) a ....................................................................................................
Total ($m, undiscounted) b ...............................................................................
506
170
Notes:
a Values used in Methods A & B.
b Values used in Method A, calculated at a 3% discount rate.
TABLE VI–24—SUMMARY OF IMPACTS ON FIAT/CHRYSLER BY 2030 IN THE HD PICKUP AND VAN MARKET VERSUS THE
DYNAMIC BASELINE, ALTERNATIVE 1b
Alternative
2
Annual Stringency Increase .............................................................................
Stringency Increase Through MY ....................................................................
3
2.0%/y
2025
4
5
2.5%/y
2027
3.5%/y
2025
4.0%/y
2025
20.08
20.06
20.12
20.10
20.70
20.70
4.98
4.99
4.97
4.97
4.83
4.83
515
512
480
481
479
480
466
467
40
23
17
74
40
23
17
74
40
23
17
74
40
23
17
74
Average Fuel Economy (miles per gallon)
Required ..........................................................................................................
Achieved ..........................................................................................................
18.73
18.83
Average Fuel Consumption (gallons/100 mi.)
ebenthall on DSK3VPTVN1PROD with MISCELLANEOUS
Required ..........................................................................................................
Achieved ..........................................................................................................
5.34
5.31
Average Greenhouse Gas Emissions (g/mi)
Required ..........................................................................................................
Achieved ..........................................................................................................
Technology Penetration (%)
VVT and/or VVL ...............................................................................................
Cylinder Deac ..................................................................................................
Direct Injection .................................................................................................
Turbocharging ..................................................................................................
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TABLE VI–24—SUMMARY OF IMPACTS ON FIAT/CHRYSLER BY 2030 IN THE HD PICKUP AND VAN MARKET VERSUS THE
DYNAMIC BASELINE, ALTERNATIVE 1b—Continued
Alternative
2
3
8-Speed AT ......................................................................................................
EPS, Accessories ............................................................................................
Stop-Start .........................................................................................................
Hybridization ....................................................................................................
Aero. Improvements ........................................................................................
4
5
65
0
0
0
0
88
100
0
3
100
88
100
0
3
100
88
100
0
10
100
196
2.8
649
9.1
648
9.1
617
8.7
1,469
163
1,486
164
1,700
188
Mass Reduction (vs. No-Action)
CW (lb.) ............................................................................................................
CW (%) ............................................................................................................
Technology Cost (vs. No-Action)
($) a
Average
....................................................................................................
Total ($m, undiscounted) b ...............................................................................
434
48
ebenthall on DSK3VPTVN1PROD with MISCELLANEOUS
Notes:
a Values used in Methods A & B.
b Values used in Method A, calculated at a 3% discount rate.
The fuel consumption and GHG
standards require manufacturers to
achieve an average level of compliance,
represented by a sales-weighted average
across the specific targets of all vehicles
offered for sale in a given model year,
such that each manufacturer will have
a unique required consumption/
emissions level determined by the
composition of its fleet, as illustrated
above. However, there are more
interesting differences than the small
differences in required fuel economy
levels among manufacturers. In
particular, the average incremental
technology cost increases with the
stringency of the alternative for each
manufacturer, but the size of the cost
increase from one alternative to the next
varies among them, with General Motors
showing considerably larger increases in
cost moving from Alternative 3 to
Alternative 4, than from either
Alternative 2 to Alternative 3 or
Alternative 4 to Alternative 5. Ford is
estimated to have more uniform cost
increases from each alternative to the
next, in increasing stringency, though
still benefits from the reduced pace and
longer period of increase associated
with Alternative 3 compared to
Alternative 4.
The simulation results show all three
manufacturers facing cost increases
when the stringency of the standards
move from 2.5 percent annual increases
over the period from MY 2021–2027 to
3.5 percent annual increases from MY
2021–2025, but General Motors has the
largest at 75 percent more than the
industry average price increase for
Alternative 4. GM also faces higher cost
increases in Alternative 2 about 50
percent more than either Ford or Fiat/
Chrysler. And for the most stringent
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alternative considered, the agencies
estimate that General Motors would face
average cost increases of more than
$2,700, in addition to the more than
$700 increase in the baseline—
approaching nearly $3,500 per vehicle
over today’s prices.
Technology choices also differ by
manufacturer, and some of those
decisions are directly responsible for the
largest cost discrepancies. For example,
GM is estimated to engage in the least
amount of mass reduction among the
Big 3 after Phase 1, and much less than
Chrysler/Fiat, but reduces average
vehicle mass by over 300 lbs in the
baseline—suggesting that some of GM’s
easiest Phase 1 compliance
opportunities can be found in
lightweighting technologies. Similarly,
Chrysler/Fiat is projected to apply less
hybridization than the others, and much
less than General Motors, which is
simulated to have full hybrids (either
integrated starter generator or complete
hybrid system) on all of its fleet by
2030, nearly 20 percent of which will be
strong hybrids, in Alternative 4 and the
strong hybrid share decreases to about
18 percent in Alternative 5, as some
lower level technologies are applied
more broadly. Because the analysis
applies the same technology inputs and
the same logic for selecting among
available opportunities to apply
technology, the unique situation of each
manufacturer determined which
technology path is projected as the most
cost-effective.
In order to understand the differences
in incremental technology costs and fuel
economy achievement across
manufacturers in this market segment, it
is important to understand the
differences in their starting position
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relative to the proposed standards. One
important factor, made more obvious in
the following figures, is the difference
between the fuel economy and
performance of the recently redesigned
vans offered by Fiat/Chrysler and Ford
(the Promaster and Transit,
respectively), and the more
traditionally-styled vans that continue
to be offered by General Motors (the
Express/Savannah). In MY 2014, Ford
began the phase-out of the Econoline
van platform, moving those volumes to
the Euro-style Transit vans (discussed in
more detail in Section VI. D.2). The
Transit platform represents a significant
improvement over the existing
Econoline platform from the perspective
of fuel economy, and for the purpose of
complying with the standards, the
relationship between the Transit’s work
factor and fuel economy is a more
favorable one than the Econoline vans it
replaces. Since the redesign of van
offerings from both Chrysler/Fiat and
Ford occur in (or prior to) the 2014
model year, the costs, fuel consumption
improvements, and reductions of
vehicle mass associated with those
redesigns are included in the analysis
fleet, meaning they are not carried as
part of the compliance modeling
exercise. By contrast, General Motors is
simulated to redesign their van offerings
after 2014, such that there is a greater
potential for these vehicles to incur
additional costs attributable to new
standards, unlike the costs associated
with the recent redesigns of their
competitors. The inclusion of these new
Ford and Chrysler/Fiat products in the
analysis fleet is the primary driver of the
cost discrepancy between GM and its
competitors in both the baseline and
Alternative 2, when Ford and Chrysler/
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Fiat have to apply considerably less
technology to achieve compliance.
The remaining 5 percent of the 2b/3
market is attributed to two
manufacturers, Daimler and Nissan,
which, unlike the other manufacturers
in this market segment, only produce
vans. The vans offered by both
manufacturers currently utilize two
engines and two transmissions,
although both Nissan engines are
gasoline engines and both Daimler
engines are diesels. Despite the logical
grouping, these two manufacturers are
impacted much differently by the
proposed standards. For the least
stringent alternative considered,
Daimler adds no technology and incurs
no incremental cost in order to comply
with the standards. At stringency
increases greater than or equal to 3.5
percent per year, Daimler only really
improves some of their transmissions
and improves the electrical accessories
of its Sprinter vans. By contrast,
Nissan’s starting position is much
weaker and their compliance costs
closer to the industry average in Table
VI–21. This difference could increase if
the analysis fleet supporting the final
rule includes forthcoming Nissan HD
pickups.
TABLE VI–25—SUMMARY OF IMPACTS ON DAIMLER BY 2030 IN THE HD PICKUP AND VAN MARKET VERSUS THE DYNAMIC
BASELINE, ALTERNATIVE 1b
Alternative
2
Annual Stringency Increase .............................................................................
Stringency Increase Through MY ....................................................................
3
2.0%/y
2025
4
5
2.5%/y
2027
3.5%/y
2025
4.0%/y
2025
25.19
25.79
25.25
25.79
25.91
26.53
3.97
3.88
3.96
3.88
3.86
3.77
436
404
404
395
404
395
393
384
0
0
0
44
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
44
44
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
44
44
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
44
100
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
165
4
165
4
374
9
Average Fuel Economy (miles per gallon)
Required ..........................................................................................................
Achieved ..........................................................................................................
23.36
25.23
Average Fuel Consumption (gallons/100 mi.)
Required ..........................................................................................................
Achieved ..........................................................................................................
4.28
3.96
Average Greenhouse Gas Emissions (g/mi)
Required ..........................................................................................................
Achieved ..........................................................................................................
Technology Penetration (%)
VVT and/or VVL ...............................................................................................
Cylinder Deac ..................................................................................................
Direct Injection .................................................................................................
Turbocharging ..................................................................................................
8-Speed AT ......................................................................................................
EPS, Accessories ............................................................................................
Stop-Start .........................................................................................................
Hybridization ....................................................................................................
Aero. Improvements ........................................................................................
Mass Reduction (vs. No-Action)
CW (lb.) ............................................................................................................
CW (%) ............................................................................................................
Technology Cost (vs. No-Action)
Average ($) a ....................................................................................................
Total ($m, undiscounted) b ...............................................................................
Notes:
a Values used in Methods A & B.
b Values used in Method A, calculated at a 3% discount rate.
ebenthall on DSK3VPTVN1PROD with MISCELLANEOUS
TABLE VI–26—SUMMARY OF IMPACTS ON NISSAN BY 2030 IN THE HD PICKUP AND VAN MARKET VERSUS THE DYNAMIC
BASELINE, ALTERNATIVE 1b
Alternative
2
Annual Stringency Increase .............................................................................
Stringency Increase Through MY ....................................................................
3
2.0%/y
2025
4
5
2.5%/y
2027
3.5%/y
2025
4.0%/y
2025
21.19
21.17
20.92
21.19
21.46
21.51
Average Fuel Economy (miles per gallon)
Required ..........................................................................................................
Achieved ..........................................................................................................
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19.84
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TABLE VI–26—SUMMARY OF IMPACTS ON NISSAN BY 2030 IN THE HD PICKUP AND VAN MARKET VERSUS THE DYNAMIC
BASELINE, ALTERNATIVE 1b—Continued
Alternative
2
3
4
5
Average Fuel Consumption (gallons/100 mi.)
Required ..........................................................................................................
Achieved ..........................................................................................................
5.09
5.04
44.72
4.72
4.78
4.72
4.66
4.65
452
448
419
419
425
419
414
413
100
49
51
51
0
0
0
0
0
100
49
51
51
51
100
0
0
100
100
49
51
51
51
100
0
0
100
100
49
100
50
51
100
0
28
100
0
0
0
0
307
5
303
4.9
378
5
1,150
15.1
1,347
17.7
1,935
25.4
Average Greenhouse Gas Emissions (g/mi)
Required ..........................................................................................................
Achieved ..........................................................................................................
Technology Penetration (%)
VVT and/or VVL ...............................................................................................
Cylinder Deac ..................................................................................................
Direct Injection .................................................................................................
Turbocharging ..................................................................................................
8-Speed AT ......................................................................................................
EPS, Accessories ............................................................................................
Stop-Start .........................................................................................................
Hybridization ....................................................................................................
Aero. Improvements ........................................................................................
Mass Reduction (vs. No-Action)
CW (lb.) ............................................................................................................
CW (%) ............................................................................................................
Technology Cost (vs. No-Action)
($) a
Average
....................................................................................................
Total ($m, undiscounted) b ...............................................................................
ebenthall on DSK3VPTVN1PROD with MISCELLANEOUS
Notes:
a Values used in Methods A & B.
b Values used in Method A, calculated at a 3% discount rate.
As Table VI–25 and Table VI–26
show, Nissan applies more technology
than Daimler in the less stringent
alternatives and significantly more
technology with increasing stringency.
The Euro-style Sprinter vans that
comprise all of Daimler’s model
offerings in this segment put Daimler in
a favorable position. However, those
vans are already advanced—containing
downsized diesel engines and advanced
aerodynamic profiles. Much like the
Ford Transit vans, the recent
improvements to the Sprinter vans
occurred outside the scope of the
compliance modeling so the costs of the
improvements are not captured in the
analysis.
Although Daimler’s required fuel
economy level is much higher than
Nissan’s (in miles per gallon), Nissan
starts from a much weaker position than
Daimler and must incorporate
additional engine, transmission,
platform-level technologies (e.g. mass
reduction and aerodynamic
improvements) in order to achieve
compliance. In fact, more than 25
percent of Nissan’s van offerings are
projected to contain integrated starter
generators by 2030 in Alternative 5.
While the agencies do not allow sales
volumes for any manufacturer (or
model) to vary across regulatory
alternatives in the analysis, it is
conceivable that under the most
stringent alternatives individual
manufacturers could lose market share
to their competitors if the prices of their
new vehicles rise more than the
industry average without compensating
fuel savings and/or changes to other
features.
(b) Estimated Owner/Operator Impacts
With Respect to HD Pickups and Vans
Using Method A
The owner/operator impacts of the
proposed rules are more
straightforward. Table VI–27 shows the
impact on the average owner/operator
who buys a new class 2b or 3 vehicle
in model year 2030 using the worst case
assumption that manufacturers pass
through the entire cost of technology to
the purchaser. (All dollar values are
discounted at a rate of 7 percent per
year from the time of purchase, except
the average price increase, which occurs
at the time of purchase). The additional
costs associated with increases in taxes,
registration fees, and financing costs are
also captured in the table.
TABLE VI–27—SUMMARY OF INDIVIDUAL OWNER/OPERATOR IMPACTS IN MY 2030 IN THE HD PICKUP AND VAN MARKET
SEGMENT USING METHOD A AND VERSUS THE DYNAMIC BASELINE, ALTERNATIVE 1b a
Alternative
2
Annual Stringency Increase Increases ............................................................
Stringency Increase Through MY ....................................................................
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2025
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2025
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TABLE VI–27—SUMMARY OF INDIVIDUAL OWNER/OPERATOR IMPACTS IN MY 2030 IN THE HD PICKUP AND VAN MARKET
SEGMENT USING METHOD A AND VERSUS THE DYNAMIC BASELINE, ALTERNATIVE 1b a—Continued
Alternative
2
3
4
5
Value of Lifetime Fuel Savings (discounted 2012 dollars)
Pretax ...............................................................................................................
Tax ...................................................................................................................
Total .................................................................................................................
2,068
210
2,278
3,924
409
4,334
4,180
438
4,618
4,676
491
5,168
437
164
472
172
525
193
1,348
3
280
1,655
3.4
344
2,080
3.9
432
3,307
3,263
3,374
Economic Benefits (discounted 2012 dollars)
Mobility Benefit ................................................................................................
Avoided Refueling Time ..................................................................................
244
86
New Vehicle Purchase (vs. No-Action Alternative)
Avg. Price Increase ($) ....................................................................................
Avg. Payback (years) ......................................................................................
Additional costs ($) ..........................................................................................
578
2.5
120
Net Lifetime Owner/Operator Benefits (discounted $)
Total Net Benefits ............................................................................................
1,910
Notes:
* All dollar values are discounted at a rate of 7 percent per year from the time of purchase, except the average price increase, which occurs at
the time of purchase).
a For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
As expected, an owner/operator’s
lifetime fuel savings increase
monotonically across the alternatives.
The mobility benefit in Table VI–27
refers to the value of additional miles
that an individual owner/operator
travels as a result of reduced per-mile
travel costs. The additional miles result
in additional fuel consumption and
represent foregone fuel savings, but are
valued by owner/operators at the cost of
the additional fuel plus the owner/
operator surplus (a measure of the
increase in welfare that owner/operators
achieve by having more mobility). The
refueling benefit measures the value of
time saved through reduced refueling
events, the result of improved fuel
economy and range in vehicles that
have been modified in response to the
standards.
There are some limitations to using
payback period as a measure, as it
accounts for fuel expenditures and
incremental costs associated with taxes,
registration fees and financing, and
increased maintenance costs, but not the
cost of potential repairs or
replacements, which may or may not be
more expensive with more advanced
technology.
Overall, the average owner/operator is
likely to see discounted lifetime benefits
that are multiples of the price increases
faced when purchasing the new vehicle
in MY 2030 (or the few model years
preceding 2030). In particular, the net
present value of future benefits at the
time of purchase are estimated to be 3.5,
3.0, 2.2, and 1.8 times the price increase
of the average new MY2030 vehicle for
Alternatives 2–5, respectively. As Table
VI–27 illustrates, the preferred
alternative has the highest ratio of
discounted future owner/operator
benefits to owner/operator costs.
(c) Estimated Social and Environmental
Impacts for HD Pickups and Vans
Social benefits increase with the
increasing stringency of the alternatives.
As in the owner/operator analysis, the
net benefits continue to increase with
increasing stringency—suggesting that
benefits are still increasing faster than
costs for even the most stringent
alternative.
TABLE VI–28—SUMMARY OF TOTAL SOCIAL COSTS AND BENEFITS THROUGH MY 2029 IN THE HD PICKUP AND VAN
MARKET SEGMENT USING METHOD A AND VERSUS THE DYNAMIC BASELINE, ALTERNATIVE 1b a
Alternative
2
Annual Stringency Increase .............................................................................
Stringency Increase Through MY ....................................................................
3
4
5
2.0%
2025
2.5%
2027
3.5%
2025
4.0%
2025
9.6
15.9
19.1
22.2
0.5
1.9
0.9
3.2
1.1
3.8
1.3
4.4
1.8
0.7
2.1
0.8
2.4
0.9
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Fuel Purchases ($billion)
Pretax Savings .................................................................................................
Fuel Externalities ($billion)
Energy Security ...............................................................................................
CO2 emissions b ...............................................................................................
VMT-Related Externalities ($billion)
Driving Surplus ................................................................................................
Refueling Surplus ............................................................................................
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TABLE VI–28—SUMMARY OF TOTAL SOCIAL COSTS AND BENEFITS THROUGH MY 2029 IN THE HD PICKUP AND VAN
MARKET SEGMENT USING METHOD A AND VERSUS THE DYNAMIC BASELINE, ALTERNATIVE 1b a—Continued
Alternative
2
Congestion .......................................................................................................
Accidents .........................................................................................................
Noise ................................................................................................................
Fatalities ...........................................................................................................
Criteria Emissions ............................................................................................
3
¥0.2
¥0.1
0
0.1
0.6
4
5
¥0.4
¥0.2
0
¥0.2
1.1
¥0.4
¥0.2
0
¥0.2
1.3
¥0.5
¥0.3
0
¥0.5
1.6
2.5
0.5
5.0
1.0
7.2
1.5
9.7
2.0
3.3
13.9
10.6
6.8
22.7
15.9
9.5
27.4
17.9
13.0
31.7
18.7
Technology Costs vs. No-Action ($billion)
Incremental Cost ..............................................................................................
Additional Costs ...............................................................................................
Benefit Cost Summary ($billion)
Total Social Cost .............................................................................................
Total Social Benefit ..........................................................................................
Net Social Benefit ............................................................................................
ebenthall on DSK3VPTVN1PROD with MISCELLANEOUS
Notes:
* All dollar values are discounted at a rate of 3 percent per year from the time of purchase.
a For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
b Using the 3% average social cost of CO value. There are four distinct social cost of CO values presented in the Technical Support Docu2
2
ment: Social Cost of Carbon for Regulatory Impact Analysis under Executive Order 12866 (2010 and 2013). The CO2 emissions presented here
would be valued lower with one of those other three values and higher at the other two values.
Table VI–28 provides a summary of
benefits and costs, cumulative from
MY2015–MY2029 (although the early
years of the series typically have no
incremental costs and benefits over the
baseline), for each alternative. In the
social perspective, fuel savings are
considered net of fuel taxes, which are
a transfer from purchasers of fuel to
society at large. The energy security
component represents the risk premium
associated with exposure to oil price
spikes and the economic consequences
of adapting to them. This externality is
monetized on a per-gallon basis, just as
the social cost of carbon is used in this
analysis. Just as the previous two
externalities are caused by fuel
consumption, others are caused by
travel itself. The additional VMT
resulting from the increase in travel
demand that occurs when the price of
driving decreases (i.e. the rebound
effect), not only leads to increased
mobility (which is a benefit to drivers),
but also to increases in congestion,
noise, accidents, and per-mile emissions
of criteria pollutants like carbon
monoxide and diesel particulates.
Although increases in VMT lead to
increases in tailpipe emissions of
criteria pollutants, the proposed
regulations decrease overall
consumption enough that the emissions
reductions associated with the
remainder of the fuel cycle (extraction,
refining, transportation and
distribution) are large enough to create
a net reduction in the emissions of
criteria pollutants (shown below in
Table VI–29 and VI–30).367 A full
presentation of the costs and benefits,
and the considerations that have gone
into each cost and benefit category—
such as how energy security premiums
were developed, how the social costs of
carbon and co-pollutant benefits were
developed, etc.—is presented in Section
IX of this preamble and in Chapters 7
and 8 of the draft RIA for each regulated
segment (engines, HD pickups and vans,
vocational vehicles, tractors and
trailers).
Another side effect of increased VMT
is the likely increase in crashes, which
is a function of the total vehicle travel
in each year. Although additional
crashes could involve additional
fatalities, we estimate that this potential
could be partially offset by the
application of mass reduction to HD
pickup trucks and vans, which could
make fatalities less likely in some
crashes involving these vehicles. As
Table VI–28 illustrates, the social cost
associated with traffic fatalities is the
result of an additional ¥10 (Alternative
2 leads to a reduction in fatalities over
the baseline, due to the application of
mass reduction technologies), 35, 36,
and 66 fatalities for Alternatives 2–5,
respectively. The baseline contains
nearly 25,000 fatalities involving 2b/3
vehicles over the same period. The
incremental fatalities associated with
Alternative 2–5 are ¥0.4, 0.1, 0.1, and
0.3 percent relative to the MYs 2015–
2029 baseline, respectively.
The CAFE model was used to estimate
the emissions impacts of the various
alternatives that are the result of lower
fuel consumption, but increased vehicle
miles traveled for vehicle produced in
model years subject to the standards in
the alternatives. Criteria pollutants are
largely the result of vehicle use, and
accrue on a per-mile-of-travel basis, but
the alternatives still generally lead to
emissions reductions. Although vehicle
use increases under each of the
alternatives, upstream emissions
associated with fuel refining,
transportation and distribution are
reduced for each gallon of fuel saved
and that savings is larger than the
incremental increase in emissions
associated with increased travel. The
net of the two factors is a savings of
criteria (and other) pollutant emissions.
367 For a more detailed discussion of the results
from the CAFE Model on the proposed heavy duty
pickups and vans regulation’s impact on emissions
of CO2 and criteria pollutants, see NHTSA’s
accompanying Draft Environmental Impact
Statement.
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TABLE VI–29—SUMMARY OF ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS THROUGH MY2029 IN THE HD PICKUP AND VAN MARKET
SEGMENT, USING METHOD A AND VERSUS THE DYNAMIC BASELINE, ALTERNATIVE 1b a
Alternative
2
Annual Stringency Increase .............................................................................
Stringency Increase Through MY ....................................................................
3
2.0%
2025
4
5
2.5%
2027
3.5%
2025
4.0%
2025
91
111,400
110
133,700
127
155,300
20,700
43,600
2,550
19,900
47
4,350
25,800
53,500
3,090
24,100
49
5,300
30,400
62,200
3,590
28,000
55
6,160
0.3
2.1
3.0
5.1
0.1
4.8
0.4
2.6
3.6
6.2
0.1
5.9
0.4
3.0
4.2
7.2
0.2
6.8
Greenhouse Gas Emissions vs. No-Action Alternative
CO2 (MMT) ......................................................................................................
CH4 and N2O (tons) ........................................................................................
54
65,600
Other Emissions vs. No-Action Alternative (tons)
CO ....................................................................................................................
VOC and NOX .................................................................................................
PM ....................................................................................................................
SO2 ..................................................................................................................
Air Toxics .........................................................................................................
Diesel PM10 ......................................................................................................
10,400
23,800
1,470
11,400
44
2,470
Other Emissions vs. No-Action Alternative (% reduction)
CO ....................................................................................................................
VOC and NOX .................................................................................................
PM ....................................................................................................................
SO2 ..................................................................................................................
Air Toxics .........................................................................................................
Diesel PM10 ......................................................................................................
0.1
1.1
1.7
2.9
0.1
2.7
Notes:
a For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
In addition to comparing
environmental impacts of the
alternatives against a dynamic baseline
that shows some improvement over
time, compared to today’s fleet, even in
the absence of the alternatives, the
environmental impacts from the Method
A analysis were compared against a flat
baseline. This other comparison is
summarized below, but both
comparisons are discussed in greater
detail in the Draft EIS.
TABLE VI–30—SUMMARY OF ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS THROUGH MY2029 IN THE HD PICKUP AND VAN MARKET
SEGMENT, USING METHOD A AND VERSUS THE FLAT BASELINE, ALTERNATIVE 1a
Alternative
2
Annual Stringency Increase .............................................................................
Stringency Increase Through MY ....................................................................
3
2.0%
2025
4
5
2.5%
2027
3.5%
2025
4.0%
2025
105
127,400
127
154,800
142
172,800
22,160
48,770
2,900
22,580
65
4,930
28,030
60,180
3,550
27,660
72
6,060
32,370
68,050
3,980
31,020
73
6,810
0.3
2.3
3.4
5.7
0.2
5.4
0.4
2.9
4.2
7.0
0.2
6.7
0.4
3.3
4.7
7.9
0.2
7.5
Greenhouse Gas Emissions vs. No-Action Alternative
CO2 (MMT) ......................................................................................................
CH4 and N2O (tons) .........................................................................................
66
79,700
Other Emissions vs. No-Action Alternative (tons)
CO ....................................................................................................................
VOC and NOX .................................................................................................
PM ....................................................................................................................
SO2 ..................................................................................................................
Air Toxics .........................................................................................................
Diesel PM10 ......................................................................................................
11,630
28,280
1,780
13,780
60
2,980
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Other Emissions vs. No-Action Alternative (% reduction)
CO ....................................................................................................................
VOC and NOX .................................................................................................
PM ....................................................................................................................
SO2 ..................................................................................................................
Air Toxics .........................................................................................................
Diesel PM10 ......................................................................................................
0.2
1.4
2.1
3.5
0.2
3.3
Notes:
a For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
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This section describes some of the
principal sensitivity results, obtained by
running the various scenarios describing
the policy alternatives with alternative
inputs. OMB Circular A–4 indicates that
‘‘it is usually necessary to provide a
sensitivity analysis to reveal whether,
and to what extent, the results of the
analysis are sensitive to plausible
changes in the main assumptions and
numeric inputs.’’ 368 Considering this
guidance, a number of sensitivity
analyses were performed using analysis
Method A to examine important
assumptions and inputs, including the
following, all of which are discussed in
greater detail in the accompanying RIA:
1. Payback Period: In addition to the
0 and 6 month payback periods
discussed above, also evaluated cases
involving payback periods of 12, 18, and
24 months.
2. Fuel Prices: Evaluated cases
involving fuel prices from the AEO 2014
low and high oil price scenarios. (See
AEO-Low and AEO-High in the tables.)
3. Fuel Prices and Payback Period:
Evaluated one side case involving a 0
month payback period combined with
fuel prices from the AEO 2014 low oil
price scenario, and one side case with
a 24 month payback period combined
with fuel prices from the AEO 2014 high
oil price scenario.
4. Benefits to Vehicle Buyers: The
main Method A analysis assumes there
is no loss in value to owner/operators
resulting from vehicles that have an
increase in price and higher fuel
economy. NHTSA performed this
sensitivity analysis assuming that there
is a 25, or 50 percent loss in value to
owner/operators—equivalent to the
assumption that owner/operators will
only value the calculated benefits they
will achieve at 75, or 50 percent,
respectively, of the main analysis
estimates. (These are labeled as
75pctOwner/operatorBenefit and
50pctOwner/operatorBenefit.)
5. Value of Avoided GHG Emissions:
Evaluated side cases involving lower
and higher valuation of avoided CO2
emissions, expressed as the social cost
of carbon (SCC).
6. Rebound Effect: Evaluated side
cases involving rebound effect values of
5 percent, 15 percent, and 20 percent.
(These are labeled as
05PctReboundEffect,
15PctReboundEffect and
20PctReboundEffect).
7. RPE-based Markup: Evaluated a
side case using a retail price equivalent
(RPE) markup factor of 1.5 for nonelectrification technologies, which is
consistent with the NAS estimation for
technologies manufactured by suppliers,
and a RPE markup factor of 1.33 for
electrification technologies (mild and
strong HEV).
8. ICM-based Post-Warranty Repair
Costs: NHTSA evaluated a side case that
scaled the frequency of repair by vehicle
survival rates, assumes that per-vehicle
repair costs during the post-warranty
period are the same as in the inwarranty period, and that repair costs
are proportional to incremental direct
costs (therefore vehicles with additional
components will have increased repair
costs).
9. Mass-Safety Effect: Evaluated side
cases with the mass-safety impact
coefficient at the values defining the 5th
and 95th percent points of the
confidence interval estimated in the
underlying statistical analysis. (These
are labeled MassFatalityCoeff05pct and
MassFatalityCoeff95pct.)
10. Strong HEVs: Evaluated a side
case in which strong HEVs were
excluded from the set of technology
estimated to be available for HD pickups
and vans through model year 2030. As
in Section VI.C. (8), this ‘‘no SHEV’’
case allowed turbocharging and
downsizing on all GM vans to provide
a lower-cost path for compliance.
11. Diesel Downsizing: Evaluated a
side case in which downsizing of diesel
engines was estimated to be more
widely available to HD pickups and
vans.
12. Technology Effectiveness:
Evaluated side cases involving inputs
reflecting lower and higher impacts of
technologies on fuel consumption.
13. Technology Direct Costs:
Evaluated side cases involving inputs
reflecting lower and higher direct
incremental costs for fuel-saving
technologies.
14. Fleet Mix: Evaluated a side case in
which the shares of individual vehicle
models and configurations were kept
constant at estimated current levels.
Table VI–31 below, summarizes key
metrics for each of the cases included in
the sensitivity analysis using Method A
for the proposed alternative. The table
reflects the percent change in the
metrics (columns) relative to the main
analysis, due to the particular
sensitivity case (rows) for the proposed
alternative 3. For each sensitivity run,
the change in the metric can we
described as the difference between the
baseline and the preferred alternative
for the sensitivity case, minus the
difference between the preferred
alternative and the baseline in the main
analysis, divided by the difference
between the preferred alternative and
the baseline in the main analysis. Or,
Each metric represents the sum of the
impacts of the preferred alternative over
the model years 2018–2029, and the
percent changes in the table represent
percent changes to those sums. More
detailed results for all alternatives are
available in the accompanying RIA
Chapter 10.
TABLE VI–31—SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS RESULTS FROM CAFE MODEL IN THE HD PICKUP AND VAN MARKET SEGMENT
USING METHOD A AND VERSUS THE DYNAMIC BASELINE, ALTERNATIVE 1B (2.5% GROWTH IN STRINGENCY: CELLS
ARE PERCENT CHANGE FROM BASE CASE) A
Fuel savings
(gallons)
(%)
Sensitivity case
0 Month Payback .....................................
CO2 savings
(MMT)
(%)
14.0
Fuel savings
($)
(%)
14.5
Social costs
(%)
15.1
5.6
368 Available at https://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/
circulars_a004_a-4/.
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Social benefits
(%)
15.1
Social net
benefits
(%)
18.2
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Different Inputs to the DOT CAFE
Model
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TABLE VI–31—SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS RESULTS FROM CAFE MODEL IN THE HD PICKUP AND VAN MARKET SEGMENT
USING METHOD A AND VERSUS THE DYNAMIC BASELINE, ALTERNATIVE 1B (2.5% GROWTH IN STRINGENCY: CELLS
ARE PERCENT CHANGE FROM BASE CASE) A—Continued
Fuel savings
(gallons)
(%)
Sensitivity case
¥4.8
¥29.2
¥42.9
3.3
¥7.0
18.6
¥63.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
14.0
0.0
14.0
0.0
14.0
4.6
¥4.6
¥9.1
¥3.2
0.0
0.0
¥6.7
8.2
¥7.8
¥10.6
0.9
¥4.1
¥1.5
0.0
14.0
15.5
32.1
1.1
12 Month Payback ...................................
18 Month Payback ...................................
24 Month Payback ...................................
AEO-Low ..................................................
AEO-High .................................................
AEO-Low, 0 Month Payback ...................
AEO-High, 24 Month Payback .................
50pct Owner/operator Benefit ..................
75pct Owner/operator Benefit ..................
Low SCC ..................................................
Low SCC, 0 Month Payback ...................
High SCC .................................................
High SCC, 0 Month Payback ...................
Very High SCC ........................................
Very High SCC, 0 Month Payback ..........
05 Pct Rebound Effect .............................
15 Pct Rebound Effect .............................
20 Pct Rebound Effect .............................
RPE-Based Markup .................................
Mass Fatality Coeff 05pct ........................
Mass Fatality Coeff 95pct ........................
NoSHEVs .................................................
NoSHEVs, 0 Month Payback ...................
Lower Effectiveness .................................
Higher Effectiveness ................................
Lower Direct Costs ..................................
Higher Direct Costs ..................................
Wider Diesel Downsizing .........................
07 Pct Discount Rate ...............................
07 Pct DR, 0 Month Payback ..................
Allow Gas To Diesel ................................
Allow Gas To Diesel, 0 Month Payback ..
flat mix after 2016 ....................................
CO2 savings
(MMT)
(%)
Fuel savings
($)
(%)
¥4.7
¥28.1
¥42.4
3.5
¥7.2
19.3
¥64.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
14.5
0.0
14.5
0.0
14.5
4.6
¥4.6
¥9.2
¥1.5
0.0
0.0
¥5.8
9.8
¥7.8
¥10.3
2.7
¥3.8
¥1.0
0.0
14.5
5.3
22.6
0.9
Social costs
(%)
¥4.5
¥26.5
¥41.9
¥27.9
23.3
¥16.5
¥54.4
¥50.0
¥25.0
0.0
15.1
0.0
15.1
0.0
15.1
4.6
¥4.6
¥9.2
0.3
0.0
0.0
¥5.0
11.5
¥8.1
¥10.0
4.8
¥3.5
¥0.6
¥100.0
¥37.9
¥100.0
14.5
0.7
¥2.5
¥14.1
¥23.2
¥10.8
1.4
¥3.4
¥49.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
5.6
0.0
5.6
0.0
5.6
¥12.9
12.9
25.7
31.4
¥23.6
23.9
2.3
¥1.2
39.5
¥23.3
18.4
75.3
¥10.3
¥41.7
¥30.7
16.8
46.8
2.6
Social benefits
(%)
¥4.7
¥26.8
¥42.1
¥22.2
19.5
¥10.1
¥55.7
¥34.6
¥17.3
¥10.6
2.9
7.8
24.0
28.7
48.0
0.4
¥0.4
¥0.8
¥0.1
0.0
0.0
¥5.1
11.3
¥8.0
¥10.2
4.3
¥3.8
¥0.8
¥100.0
¥30.7
¥100.0
17.0
0.8
Social net
benefits
(%)
¥5.4
¥31.1
¥48.4
¥26.1
25.6
¥12.3
¥57.7
¥46.2
¥23.1
¥14.1
2.0
10.4
30.1
38.4
62.2
4.8
¥4.8
¥9.7
¥10.6
7.9
¥8.0
¥7.6
15.4
¥23.9
¥5.8
¥0.4
¥30.3
2.4
¥119.5
¥30.7
¥139.1
7.0
0.2
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Note:
a For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
For some of the cases for which
results are presented above, the
sensitivity of results to changes in
inputs is simple, direct, and easily
observed. For example, changes to
valuation of avoided GHG emissions
impact only this portion of the
estimated economic benefits;
manufacturers’ responses and
corresponding costs are not impacted.
Similarly, a higher discount rate does
not affect physical quantities saved
(gallons of fuel and metric tons of CO2
in the table), but reduces the value of
the costs and benefits attributable to the
proposed standards in an intuitive way.
Some other cases warrant closer
consideration:
First, cases involving alternatives to
the reference six-month payback period
involve different degrees of fuel
consumption improvement, and these
differences are greatest in the no-action
alternative defining the baseline.
Because all estimated impacts of the
proposed standards are shown as
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incremental values relative to this
baseline, longer payback periods
correspond to smaller estimates of
incremental impacts, as fuel economy
increasingly improves in the absence of
the rule and manufacturers are
compelled to add less technology in
order to comply with the standards.
Second, cases involving different fuel
prices similarly involve different
degrees of fuel economy improvement
in the absence of the standard, as more,
or less, improvement occurs as a result
of more, or fewer, technologies
appearing cost effective to owner/
operators. Lower fuel prices correspond
to increases in fuel savings on a
volumetric basis, as the standard is
responsible for a greater amount of the
fuel economy improvement, but the
value of fuel savings decreases because
each gallon saved is worth less when
fuel prices are low. Higher fuel prices
correspond to reductions in the
volumetric fuel savings attributable to
the proposed standards, but lead to
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increases in the value of fuel saved
because each gallon saved is worth more
when fuel prices are high.
Third, because the payback period
and fuel price inputs work in opposing
directions, the relative magnitude of
each is important to consider for the
combined sensitivity cases. While the
low price and 0-month payback case
leads to significant volumetric savings
compared to the main analysis, the low
fuel price is still sufficient to produce a
negative change in net benefits.
Similarly, the high price and 24-month
payback case results in large reductions
to volumetric savings that can be
attributed to the proposed standards,
but the presence of high fuel prices is
not sufficient to lead to increases in
either the dollar value of fuel savings or
net social benefits.
Fourth, the cases involving different
inputs defining the availability of some
technologies do not impact equally the
estimated impacts across all
manufacturers. Section C.8 above
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provides a discussion of a sensitivity
analysis that excludes strong hybrids
and includes the use of downsized
turbocharged engines in vans currently
equipped with large V–8 engines. The
modeling results for this analysis are
provided in Section C.8 and in the table
above. The no strong hybrid analysis
shows that GM could comply with the
proposed preferred Alternative 3
without strong hybrids based on the use
of turbo downsizing on all of their HD
gasoline vans. Alternatively, when the
analysis is modified to allow for wider
application of diesel engines, strong
HEV application for GM drops slightly
(from 19 percent to 17 percent) in
MY2030, average per-vehicle costs drop
slightly (by about $50), but MY2030
additional penetration rates of diesel
engines increase by about 10 percent.
Manufacturer-specific model results
accompanying today’s rules show the
extent to which individual
manufacturers’ potential responses to
the standards vary with these alternative
assumptions regarding the availability
and applicability of fuel-saving
technologies. However, across all of
these sensitivity cases, the model
projects that social costs increase (as a
result of increases in technology costs)
when manufacturers choose to comply
with the proposed regulations without
the use of strong hybrids.
Fifth, the cases that vary the
effectiveness and direct cost of available
technologies produce nuanced results in
the context of even the 0-month payback
case. In the case of effectiveness
changes, both sensitivity cases result in
reductions to the volumetric fuel
savings attributable to the proposal;
lower effectiveness because the
technologies applied in response to the
standards save less fuel, and higher
effectiveness because more of the
increase in fuel economy occurs in the
baseline. However, for both cases, social
costs (a strong proxy for technology
costs) move in the intuitive direction.
The cases that vary direct costs show
volumetric fuel savings increasing
under lower direct technology costs
despite additional fuel economy
improvements in the baseline, as more
aggressive technology becomes cost
effective. Higher direct costs lead to
decreases in volumetric fuel savings, as
more of the fuel economy improvement
can be attributed to the rule. In both
cases, social costs (as a result of
technology costs) move in the intuitive
direction.
If, instead of using the values in the
main analysis, each sensitivity case
were itself the main analysis, the costs
and benefits attributable to the proposed
rule would be as they appear in Table
VI–32, below.
TABLE VI–32—COSTS AND BENEFITS OF PROPOSED STANDARDS FOR HD PICKUPS AND VANS UNDER ALTERNATIVE
ASSUMPTIONS
Fuel savings
(billion gallons)
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Sensitivity case
CO2 reduction
(MMT)
7.8
8.9
7.4
5.5
4.5
8.1
7.3
9.3
2.8
7.8
7.8
7.8
8.9
7.8
8.9
7.8
8.9
8.2
7.5
7.1
7.6
7.8
7.8
7.2
7.0
7.9
7.5
7.7
7.8
8.9
9.0
10.3
7.9
7.3
8.4
94.1
107.7
87.2
65.8
52.7
94.7
84.9
109.1
32.4
91.5
91.5
91.5
104.7
91.5
104.7
91.5
104.7
95.7
87.2
83.0
90.1
91.5
91.5
84.3
82.0
94.0
88.0
90.5
91.5
104.7
96.3
112.2
92.3
85.8
99.8
6 Month Payback (main) ..........................
0 Month Payback .....................................
12 Month Payback ...................................
18 Month Payback ...................................
24 Month Payback ...................................
AEO-Low ..................................................
AEO-High .................................................
AEO-Low, 0 Month Payback ...................
AEO-High, 24 Month Payback .................
50pct Owner/operator Benefit ..................
75pct Owner/operator Benefit ..................
Low SCC ..................................................
Low SCC, 0 Month Payback ...................
High SCC .................................................
High SCC, 0 Month Payback ...................
Very High SCC ........................................
Very High SCC, 0 Month Payback ..........
05 Pct Rebound Effect .............................
15 Pct Rebound Effect .............................
20 Pct Rebound Effect .............................
RPE-Based Markup .................................
Mass Fatality Coeff 05pct ........................
Mass Fatality Coeff 95pct ........................
NoSHEVs .................................................
NoSHEVs, 0 Month Payback ...................
Lower Effectiveness .................................
Higher Effectiveness ................................
Lower Direct Costs ..................................
Higher Direct Costs ..................................
Wider Diesel Downsizing .........................
07 Pct Discount Rate ...............................
07 Pct DR, 0 Month Payback ..................
Allow Gas To Diesel ................................
Allow Gas To Diesel, 0 Month Payback ..
Flat mix after 2016 ...................................
(7) Uncertainty Analysis
As in previous rules, NHTSA has
conducted an uncertainty analysis to
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Fuel savings
($billion)
15.9
18.3
15.2
11.7
9.2
11.5
19.6
13.3
7.2
8.0
11.9
15.9
18.3
15.9
18.3
15.9
18.3
16.6
15.2
14.4
16.0
15.9
15.9
14.6
14.3
16.7
15.3
15.8
8.5
9.9
15.3
18.2
16.0
15.1
17.6
determine the extent to which
uncertainty about input assumptions
could impact the costs and benefits
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Social costs
($billion)
5.5
5.8
5.6
4.9
4.4
5.1
5.8
5.6
2.9
5.8
5.8
5.8
6.1
5.8
6.1
5.8
6.1
5.0
6.5
7.2
7.6
4.4
7.1
8.0
4.4
6.8
10.1
5.2
3.8
4.0
7.2
8.5
5.9
6.9
7.4
Social benefits
($billion)
23.5
27.0
21.9
16.8
13.3
17.8
27.4
20.6
10.2
15.0
19.0
20.5
23.6
24.7
28.5
29.5
34.0
23.0
22.9
22.8
22.9
23.0
23.0
21.1
20.6
23.9
22.1
22.8
13.8
15.9
22.7
26.9
23.1
21.7
25.4
Net social
benefits
($billion)
18.0
21.3
16.3
11.9
8.9
12.7
21.6
15.1
7.3
9.2
13.2
14.8
17.5
19.0
22.4
23.8
27.9
18.0
16.4
15.5
15.4
18.5
15.8
13.1
16.2
17.1
12.0
17.6
10.0
11.9
15.5
18.4
17.2
14.8
17.9
attributable to the proposed rule. Unlike
the preceding sensitivity analysis,
which is useful for understanding how
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relaxing the assumption that ‘‘all else is
equal’’.
Each trial, of which there are 14,000
in this analysis, represents a different
state of the world in which the
standards are implemented. To gauge
the robustness of the estimates of
impacts in the proposal, NHTSA varied
technology costs and effectiveness, fuel
prices, market demand for fuel economy
improvements in the absence of the
rule, the amount of additional driving
associated with fuel economy
improvements (the rebound effect), and
the on-road gaps between realized fuel
economy and laboratory test values for
gasoline and diesel vehicles. The shapes
and types of the probability
distributions used in the analysis vary
by uncertainty parameter, though the
costs and effectiveness values for
technologies are sampled as groups to
minimize issues associated with
interdependence. The most important
input to the uncertainty analysis, fuel
prices (which drive the majority of
benefits from the proposed standards),
are drawn from a range of fuel prices
characterized by permutations of the
Low, Reference, and High fuel price
cases in the Annual Energy Outlook
2014.
Figure VI–7 displays the distribution
of net benefits estimated by the
ensemble of simulation runs. As Figure
VI–7 indicates, the analysis produces a
wide distribution of possible outcomes
that are much broader than the range of
estimates characterized by only the
difference between the more and less
dynamic baselines. While the expected
value, the probability-weighted average
outcome, is only about 70 percent of the
net benefits estimated in the main
analysis, almost all of the trials produce
positive net benefits. In fact, the
distribution suggests there is only a one
percent chance of the proposal
producing negative net benefits for HD
pickups and vans. So while the
estimated net benefits in the main
analysis may be higher than the
expected value when uncertainty is
considered, net benefits at least as high
as those estimated in the main analysis
are still 20 times as likely as an outcome
that results in net costs.
Figure VI–8 shows the distribution of
payback periods (in years) for Model
Year 2029 trucks across 14,000
simulation runs. The ‘‘payback period’’
typically refers to the number of years
of vehicle use that occur before the
savings on fuel expenditures offset the
additional technology cost associated
with improved fuel economy. As Figure
VI–8 illustrates, the expected
incremental technology cost of both
Phase 1 and Phase 2 is eclipsed by the
value of fuel savings by year three of
ownership in most cases
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alternative values of a single input
assumption may influence the estimated
impacts of the proposed standards, the
uncertainty analysis considers multiple
states of the world, characterized by a
distribution of specific values of all
relevant inputs, based on their relative
probability of occurrence. A sensitivity
analysis varies a single parameter of
interest, holding all others constant at
whatever nominal values are used to
generate the single point estimate in the
main analysis, and measures the
resulting deviation. However, the
uncertainty analysis allows all of those
parameters to vary simultaneously—
This is an important metric for owner/
operator acceptability and, though
Figure VI–8 illustrates the long right tail
of the payback distribution (where
payback periods are likely to be
unacceptably long), fewer than ten
percent of the trials result in payback
periods longer than four years. This
suggests that, even in the face of
uncertainty about future fuel prices and
fuel economy in real-world driving
conditions, buyers of the vehicles that
are modified to comply with the
requirements of the proposal will still
see fuel savings greater than their
additional vehicle cost in a relatively
short period of time. As one would
expect, the technologies used in Phase
1 of the MDHD program are likely to be
more cost effective and serve to lower
the expected payback period, even
compared to the main analysis of Phase
2.
E. Compliance and Flexibility for HD
Pickup and Van Standards
(1) Averaging, Banking, and Trading
The Phase 1 program established
substantial flexibility in how
manufacturers can choose to implement
EPA and NHTSA standards while
preserving the benefits for the
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environment and for energy
consumption and security. Primary
among these flexibilities are the gradual
phase-in schedule, and the corporate
fleet average approach which
encompasses averaging, banking and
trading described below. See Section
IV.A. of the Phase 1 preamble (76 FR
57238) for additional discussion of the
Phase 1 averaging, banking, and trading
and Section IV.A (3) of the Phase 1
preamble (76 FR 57243) for a discussion
of the credit calculation methodology.
Manufacturers in this category
typically offer gasoline and diesel
versions of HD pickup and van vehicle
models. The agencies established
chassis-based Phase 1 standards that are
equivalent in terms of stringency for
gasoline and diesel vehicles and are
proposing the same approach to
stringency for Phase 2. In Phase 1, the
agencies established that HD pickups
and vans are treated as one large
averaging set that includes both gasoline
and diesel vehicles 369 and the agencies
369 See 40 CFR 1037.104(d) and the proposed 40
CFR 86.1819–14(d). Credits may not be transferred
or traded between this vehicle averaging set and
loose engines or other heavy-duty categories, as
discussed in Section I.
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40387
are proposing to maintain this averaging
set approach for Phase 2.
As explained in Section II.C(3) of the
Phase 1 preamble (76 FR 57167), and in
Section VI.B (3) above, the program is
structured so that final compliance is
determined at the end of each model
year, when production for the model
year is complete. At that point, each
manufacturer calculates productionweighted fleet average CO2 emission
and fuel consumption rates along with
its production-weighted fleet average
standard. Under this approach, a
manufacturer’s HD pickup and van fleet
that achieves a fleet average CO2 or fuel
consumption level better than its
standard would be allowed to generate
credits. Conversely, if the fleet average
CO2 or fuel consumption level does not
meet its standard, the fleet would incur
debits (also referred to as a shortfall).
A manufacturer whose fleet generates
credits in a given model year will have
several options for using those credits to
offset emissions from other HD pickups
and vans. These options include credit
carry-back, credit carry-forward, and
credit trading within the HD pickup and
van averaging set. These types of credit
provisions also exist in the light-duty
2012–2016 and 2017–2025 MY vehicle
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would effectively result in a discount of
banked credits that are carried forward
from Phase 1 to Phase 2, which is not
the intent of the change in the useful
life. Consider, for example, a vehicle
configuration with annual sales of 1,000
vehicles that was 10 g/mile below the
standard. Under Phase 1, those vehicles
would generate 1,200 Mg of credit
(10×1,000×120,000÷1,000,000). Under
Phase 2, the same vehicles would
generate 1,500 Mg of credit
(10×1,000×150,000÷1,000,000). The
agencies do not believe that this
proposed adjustment results in a loss of
program benefits because there is little
or no deterioration anticipated for CO2
emissions and fuel consumption over
the life of the vehicles. Also, as
described in the standards and
feasibility sections above, the carryforward of credits is an integral part of
the program, helping to smoothing the
transition to the new Phase 2 standards.
The agencies believe that effectively
discounting carry-forward credits from
Phase 1 to Phase 2 would be
unnecessary and could negatively
impact the feasibility of the proposed
Phase 2 standards. EPA and NHTSA
request comment on all aspects of the
averaging, banking, and trading
program.
• Waste heat recovery
• All-electric vehicles
• Fuel cell vehicles
The advanced technology credit
program is intended to encourage early
development of technologies that are
not yet commercially available. This
multiplier approach means that each
advanced technology vehicle would
count as 1.5 vehicles in a
manufacturer’s compliance calculation.
A manufacturer also has the option to
subtract these vehicles out of its fleet
and determine their performance as a
separate fleet calculating advanced
technology credits that can be used for
all other HD vehicle categories, but
these credits would, of course, not then
be reflected in the manufacturer’s
conventional pickup and van category
credit balance. The credits are thus
‘special’ in that they can be applied
across the entire heavy-duty sector,
unlike the ABT and early credits
discussed above and the proposed offcycle technology credits discussed in
the following subsection. The agencies
also capped the amount of advanced
credits that can be transferred into any
averaging set into any model year at
60,000 Mg to prevent market distortions.
The advanced technology multipliers
were included on an interim basis in the
Phase 1 program and the agencies are
proposing to end the incentive
multipliers beginning in MY 2021,
when the more stringent Phase 2
standards are proposed to begin phasein. The agencies are proposing a similar
approach for the other HD sectors as
(2) Advanced Technology Credits
The Phase 1 program included on an
interim basis advanced technology
credits for MYs 2014 and later in the
form of a multiplier of 1.5 for the
following technologies:
• Hybrid powertrain designs that
include energy storage systems
370 77
FR 62788, October 15, 2012.
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provide manufacturers with additional
flexibility during the transition to the
proposed Phase 2 standards. A
temporary credit carry-forward period of
longer than five years for Phase 1 credits
may help manufacturers resolve leadtime issues they might face as the
proposed more stringent Phase 2
standards phase-in and help avoid
negative impacts to their product
redesign cycles which tend to be longer
than those for light-duty vehicles.
As discussed in Section VI.B.4., EPA
and NHTSA are proposing to change the
HD pickup and van useful life for GHG
emissions and fuel consumption from
the current 11 years/120,000 miles to 15
years/150,000 miles to make the useful
life for GHG emissions consistent with
the useful life of criteria pollutants
recently updated in the Tier 3 rule. As
shown in the Equation VI–1 credits
calculation formula below, established
by the Phase 1 rule, useful life in miles
is a multiplicative factor included in the
calculation of CO2 and fuel
consumption credits. In order to ensure
banked credits maintain their value in
the transition from Phase 1 to Phase 2,
NHTSA and EPA propose an adjustment
factor of 1.25 (i.e, 150,000÷120,000) for
credits that are carried forward from
Phase 1 to the MY 2021 and later Phase
2 standards. Without this adjustment
factor the proposed change in useful life
Where:
CO2 Std = Fleet average CO2 standard (g/mi)
FC Std = Fleet average fuel consumption
standard (gal/100 mile)
CO2 Act = Fleet average actual CO2 value (g/
mi)
FC Act = Fleet average actual fuel
consumption value (gal/100 mile)
Volume = the total production of vehicles in
the regulatory category
UL = the useful life for the regulatory
category (miles)
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rules, as well as many other mobile
source standards issued by EPA under
the CAA. The manufacturer will be able
to carry back credits to offset a deficit
that had accrued in a prior model year
and was subsequently carried over to
the current model year, with a
limitation on the carry-back of credits to
three model years. After satisfying any
need to offset pre-existing deficits, a
manufacturer may bank remaining
credits for use in future years, with a
limitation on the carry-forward of
credits to five model years. Averaging
vehicle credits with engine credits or
between vehicle weight classes is not
allowed, as discussed in Section I. The
agencies are not proposing changes to
any of these provisions for the Phase 2
program.
While the agencies are proposing to
retain 5 year carry-forward of credits for
all HD sectors, the agencies request
comment on the merits of a temporary
credit carry-forward period of longer
than 5 years for HD pickups and vans,
allowing Phase 1 credits generated in
MYs 2014–2019 to be used through MY
2027. EPA included a similar provision
in the MY 2017–2025 light-duty vehicle
rule, which allows a one-time credit
carry-forward of MY 2010–2015 credits
to be carried forward through MY
2021.370 Such a credit carry-forward
extension for HD pickups and vans may
Federal Register / Vol. 80, No. 133 / Monday, July 13, 2015 / Proposed Rules
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discussed in Section I.C. (1). The
advanced technology incentives are
intended to promote the
commercialization of technologies that
have the potential to provide
substantially better GHG emissions and
fuel consumption if they were able to
overcome major near-term market
barriers. However, the incentives are not
intended to be a permanent part of the
program as they result in a decrease in
overall GHG emissions and fuel
consumption benefits associated with
the program when used. More
importantly, as explained in Section I.
above, the agencies are already
predicating the stringency of the
proposed standards on development
and deployment of two of these Phase
1 advanced technologies (waste heat
recovery and strong hybrid technology),
so that it would be inappropriate (and
essentially a windfall) to include credits
for use of these technologies in Phase
2.371
As discussed in Section I, the
agencies request comment on the
proposed approach for the advanced
technology multipliers for HD pickups
and vans as well as the other HD
sectors, including comments on whether
or not the credits should be extended to
later model years for more advanced
technologies such as EVs and fuel cell
vehicles. These technologies are not
projected to be part of the technology
path used by manufacturer to meet the
proposed Phase 2 standards for HD
pickups and vans. Waste heat recovery
is also not projected to be used for HD
pickups and vans in the time frame of
the proposed rules. EV and fuel cell
technologies would presumably need to
overcome the highest hurdles to
commercialization for HD pickups and
vans in the time frame of the proposed
rules, and also have the potential to
provide the highest level of benefit. We
welcome comments on the need for
such incentives, including information
on why an incentive for specific
technologies in this time frame may be
warranted, recognizing that the
incentive would result in reduced
371 EPA and NHTSA similarly included
temporary advanced technology multipliers in the
light-duty 2017–2025 program, believing it was
worthwhile to forego modest additional emissions
reductions and fuel consumption improvements in
the near-term in order to lay the foundation for the
potential for much larger ‘‘game-changing’’ GHG
and oil consumption reductions in the longer term.
The incentives in the light-duty vehicle program are
available through the 2021 model year. See 77 FR
62811, October 15, 2012.
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benefits in terms of CO2 emissions and
fuel use due to the Phase 2 program.
NHTSA and EPA established that for
Phase 1, EVs and other zero tailpipe
emission vehicles be factored into the
fleet average GHG and fuel consumption
calculations based on the diesel
standards targets for their model year
and work factor. The agencies also
established for electric and zero
emission vehicles that in the credits
equation the actual emissions and fuel
consumption performance be set to zero
(i.e. that emissions be considered on a
tailpipe basis exclusively) rather than
including upstream emissions or energy
consumption associated with electricity
generation. As we look to the future, we
are not projecting the adoption of
electric HD pickups and vans into the
market; therefore, we believe that this
provision is still appropriate. Unlike the
MY2012–2016 light-duty rule, which
adopted a cap whereby upstream
emissions would be counted after a
certain volume of sales (see 75 FR
25434–25436), we believe there is no
need to propose a cap for HD pickups
and vans because of the infrequent
projected use of EV technologies in the
Phase 2 timeframe. In Phase 2, we
propose to continue to deem electric
vehicles as having zero CO2, CH4, and
N2O emissions as well as zero fuel
consumption. We welcome comments
on this approach. See also Section I for
a discussion of the treatment of lifecycle
emissions for alternative fuel vehicles
and Section XI for the treatment of
lifecycle emissions for natural gas
specifically.
(3) Off-Cycle Technology Credits
The Phase 1 program established an
opportunity for manufacturers to
generate credits by applying innovative
technologies whose CO2 and fuel
consumption benefits are not captured
on the 2-cycle test procedure (i.e., offcycle).372 As discussed in Sections III.F.
and V.E.3., the agencies are proposing
approaches for Phase 2 off-cycle
technology credits for tractors and
vocational vehicles with proposed
provisions tailored for those sectors. For
HD pickups and vans, the approach for
off-cycle technologies established in
Phase 1 is similar to that established for
light-duty vehicles due to the use of the
same basic chassis test procedures. The
agencies are proposing to retain this
approach for Phase 2. To generate
372 See 76 FR 57251, September 15, 2011, 40 CFR
1037.104(d)(13), and the proposed 40 CFR 86.1819–
14(d)(13).
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credits, manufacturers are required to
submit data and a methodology for
determining the level of credits for the
off-cycle technology subject to EPA and
NHTSA review and approval. The
application for off-cycle technology
credits is also subject to a public
evaluation process and comment period.
EPA and NHTSA would approve the
methodology and credits only if certain
criteria were met. Baseline emissions
and fuel consumption 373 and control
emissions and fuel consumption need to
be clearly demonstrated over a wide
range of real world driving conditions
and over a sufficient number of vehicles
to address issues of uncertainty with the
data. Data must be on a vehicle modelspecific basis unless a manufacturer
demonstrated model-specific data were
not necessary. Once a complete
application is submitted by the
manufacturer, the regulations require
that the agencies publish a notice of
availability in the Federal Register
notifying the public of a manufacturer’s
proposed off-cycle credit calculation
methodology and provide opportunity
for comment.
As noted above, the approach
finalized for HD pickups and vans
paralleled provisions for off-cycle
credits in the MY 2012–2016 light-duty
vehicle GHG program.374 In the MY
2017–2025 light-duty vehicle program,
EPA revised the off-cycle credits
program for light-duty vehicles to
streamline the credits process. In
addition to the process established in
the MY 2012–2016 rule, EPA added a
list or ‘‘menu’’ of pre-approved off-cycle
technologies and associated credit
levels.375 Manufacturers may use the
pre-defined off-cycle technology menu
to generate light-duty vehicle credits by
demonstrating at time of certification
that the vehicles are equipped with the
technology without providing
additional test data. Different levels of
credits are provided for cars and light
trucks in the light-duty program.
NHTSA also included these credits in
the CAFE program (in gallons/mile
equivalent) starting with MY 2017. The
list of pre-approved off-cycle
technologies for light-duty vehicles is
shown below.
373 Fuel consumption is derived from measured
CO2 emissions using conversion factors of 8,887 g
CO2/gallon for gasoline and 10,180 g CO2/gallon for
diesel fuel.
374 See 75 FR 25440, May 7, 2010 and 40 CFR
86.1869–12(d).
375 77 FR 62832–62839, October 15, 2012.
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TABLE VI–33—PRE-APPROVED OFF-CYCLE TECHNOLOGIES FOR LIGHT-DUTY VEHICLES
Pre-approved technologies
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High Efficiency Exterior Lighting (at 100W)
Waste Heat Recovery (at 100W; scalable)
Solar Roof Panels (for 75 W, battery charging only)
Solar Roof Panels (for 75 W, active cabin ventilation plus battery charging)
Active Aerodynamic Improvements (scalable)
Engine Idle Start-Stop w/heater circulation system
Engine Idle Start-Stop without/heater circulation system
Active Transmission Warm-Up
Active Engine Warm-Up
Solar/Thermal Control
The agencies initially note that where
vehicles are not chassis-certified, but
rather evaluate compliance using the
GEM simulation tool, with the proposed
modifications to GEM, many more
technologies (especially those related to
engine and transmission improvements)
will now be ‘on-cycle’—evaluated
directly by the GEM compliance tool.
However, with respect to the proposed
standards which would be chassiscertified—namely, the standards for
heavy duty pickups and vans, the
effectiveness of some technologies will
be only partially captured (or not
captured at all). EPA and NHTSA are
requesting comment on establishing a
pre-defined technology menu list for HD
pickups and vans. The list for HD
pickups and vans could include some or
all of the technologies listed in Table
VI–33. As with the light-duty program,
the pre-defined list may simplify the
process for generating off-cycle credits
and may further encourage the
introduction of these technologies.
However, the appropriate default level
of credits for the heavier vehicles would
need to be established. The agencies
request comments with supporting HD
pickup and van specific data and
analysis that would provide a
substantive basis for appropriate
adjustments to the credits levels for the
HD pickup and van category. The data
and analysis would need to demonstrate
that the pre-defined credit level
represents real-world emissions
reductions and fuel consumption
improvements not captured by the 2cycle test procedures.
As with the light-duty vehicle
program, the agencies would also
consider including a cap on credits
generated from a pre-defined list
established for HD pickups and vans.
The cap for the light-duty vehicle
program is 10 g/mile (and gallons/mi
equivalent) applied on a manufacturer
fleet-wide basis.376 The 10 g/mile cap
limits the total off-cycle credits allowed
376 See
40 CFR 86.1869–12(b).
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based on the pre-defined list across the
manufacturer’s light-duty vehicle fleet.
The agencies adopted the cap on credits
to address issues of uncertainty
regarding the level of credits
automatically assigned to each
technology. Manufacturers able to
demonstrate that a technology provides
improvements beyond the menu credit
level would be able to apply for
additional credits through the
individual demonstration process noted
above. Credits based on the individual
manufacturer demonstration would not
count against the credit cap. If a menu
list of credits is developed to be
included in the HD pickup and van
program, a cap may also be appropriate
depending on the technology list and
credit levels. The agencies request
comments on all aspects of the off-cycle
credits program for HD trucks and vans.
(4) Demonstrating Compliance for
Heavy-Duty Pickup Trucks and Vans
The Phase 1 rule established a
comprehensive compliance program for
HD pickups and vans that NHTSA and
EPA are generally retaining for Phase 2.
The compliance provisions cover details
regarding the implementation of the
fleet average standards including
vehicle certification, demonstrating
compliance at the end of the model
year, in-use standards and testing,
carryover of certification test data, and
reporting requirements. Please see
Section V.B (1) of the Phase 1 rule
preamble (76 FR 57256–57263) for a
detailed discussion of these provisions.
The Phase 1 rule contains special
provisions regarding loose engines and
optional chassis certification of certain
vocational vehicles over 14,000 lbs.
GVWR. The agencies are proposing to
extend the optional chassis certification
provisions to Phase 2 and are not
proposing to extend the loose engine
provisions. See the vocational vehicle
Section V.E. and XIV.A.2 for a detailed
discussion of the proposal for optional
chassis certification and II.D. for the
discussion of loose engines.
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VII. Aggregate GHG, Fuel Consumption,
and Climate Impacts
Given that the purpose of setting these
Phase 2 standards is to reduce fuel
consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG)
emissions from heavy-duty vehicles, it
is necessary for the agencies to analyze
the extent to which the proposed
standards would accomplish that
purpose. This section describes the
agencies’ methodologies for projecting
the reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG)
emissions and fuel consumption, and
the methodologies the agencies used to
quantify the impacts associated with the
proposed standards, as well as the
impacts of Alternative 4. In addition,
EPA’s analyses of the projected change
in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2)
concentration and consequent climate
change impacts are discussed. Because
of NHTSA’s obligations under EPCA/
EISA and NEPA, NHTSA further
analyzes, for each regulatory alternative,
the projected environmental impacts
related to fuel consumption, GHG
emissions, and climate change. Detailed
documentation of this analysis is
provided in Chapters 3 and 5 of
NHTSA’s DEIS accompanying today’s
notice.
A. What methodologies did the agencies
use to project GHG emissions and fuel
consumption impacts?
Different tools exist for estimating
potential fuel consumption and GHG
emissions impacts associated with fuel
efficiency and GHG emission standards.
One such tool is EPA’s official mobile
source emissions inventory model
named Motor Vehicle Emissions
Simulator (MOVES).377 The agencies
used the most current version of the
model, MOVES2014, to quantify the
impacts of the proposed standards for
vocational vehicles and combination
tractor-trailers on GHG emissions and
fuel consumption for each regulatory
alternative. MOVES was run with user
377 MOVES homepage: https://www.epa.gov/otaq/
models/moves/index.htm (last accessed Feb 23,
2015).
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input databases, described in more
detail below, that reflected the projected
technological improvements resulting
from the proposed rules, such as the
improvements in engine and vehicle
efficiency, aerodynamic drag, and tire
rolling resistance.
Another such tool is DOT’s CAFE
model, which estimates how
manufacturers could potentially apply
technology improvements in response to
new standards, and then calculates,
among other things, resultant changes in
national fuel consumption and GHG
emissions. For today’s analysis of
potential new standards for HD pickups
and vans, the model was reconfigured to
use the work-based attribute metric of
‘‘work factor’’ established in the Phase
1 rule for heavy-duty pickups and vans
instead of the light-duty ‘‘footprint’’
attribute metric. The CAFE model takes
user-specified inputs on, among other
things, vehicles that will be produced in
a given model year, technologies
available to improve fuel efficiency on
those vehicles, potential regulatory
standards that would drive
improvements in fuel efficiency, and
economic assumptions. The CAFE
model takes every vehicle in each
manufacturer’s fleet and decides what
technologies to add to those vehicles in
order to allow each manufacturer to
comply with the standards in the most
cost-effective way. Based on the
resulting improved vehicle fleet, the
CAFE model then calculates total fuel
consumption and GHG emissions
impacts based on those inputs, along
with economic costs and benefits. The
DOT’s CAFE model is further described
in detail in Section VI.C of the preamble
and Chapter 2 of the draft RIA.
For these rules, the agencies
conducted coordinated and
complementary analyses by using two
analytical methods for the heavy-duty
pickup and van segment employing
both DOT’s CAFE model and EPA’s
MOVES model. The agencies used
EPA’s MOVES model to estimate fuel
consumption and emissions impacts for
tractor-trailers (including the engine
that powers the tractor), and vocational
vehicles (including the engine that
powers the vehicle).
For heavy-duty pickups and vans, the
agencies performed complementary
analyses, which we refer to as ‘‘Method
A’’ and ‘‘Method B’’. In Method A, the
CAFE model was used to project a
pathway the industry could use to
comply with each regulatory alternative
and the estimated effects on fuel
consumption, emissions, benefits and
costs. In Method B, the MOVES model
was used to estimate fuel consumption
and emissions from these vehicles.
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NHTSA considered Method A as its
central analysis. EPA considered the
results of both methods. The agencies
concluded that both methods led the
agencies to the same conclusions and
the same selection of the proposed
standards. See Chapter 5 of the draft
RIA for additional discussions of these
two methods.
For both methods, the agencies
analyzed the impact of the proposed
rules and Alternative 4, relative to two
different reference cases—less dynamic
and more dynamic. The less dynamic
baseline projects very little
improvement in new vehicles in the
absence of new Phase 2 standards. In
contrast, the more dynamic baseline
projects more improvements in vehicle
fuel efficiency. The agencies considered
both reference cases (for additional
details, see Chapter 11 of the draft RIA).
The results for all of the regulatory
alternatives relative to both reference
cases, derived via the same
methodologies discussed in this section,
are presented in Section X of the
preamble.
For brevity, a subset of these analyses
are presented in this section, and the
reader is referred to both the RIA
Chapter 11 and NHTSA’s DEIS Chapters
3 and 5 for complete sets of these
analyses. In this section, Method A is
presented for both the proposed
standards (i.e., Alternative 3—the
agencies’ preferred alternative) and for
the standards the agencies considered in
Alternative 4, relative to both the more
dynamic baseline (Alternative 1b) and
the less dynamic baseline (Alternative
1a). Method B is presented also for the
proposed standards and Alternative 4,
but relative only to the less dynamic
baseline. The agencies’ intention for
presenting both of these complementary
and coordinated analyses is to offer
interested readers the opportunity to
compare the regulatory alternatives
considered for Phase 2 in both the
context of our HD Phase 1 analytical
approaches and our light-duty vehicle
analytical approaches. The agencies
view these analyses as corroborative and
reinforcing: Both support agencies’
conclusion that the proposed standards
are appropriate and at the maximum
feasible levels.
Because reducing fuel consumption
also affects emissions that occur as a
result of fuel production and
distribution (including renewable fuels),
the agencies also calculated those
‘‘upstream’’ changes using the
‘‘downstream’’ fuel consumption
reductions predicted by the CAFE
model and the MOVES model. As
described in Section VI, Method A uses
the CAFE model to estimate vehicular
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40391
fuel consumption and emissions
impacts for HD pickups and vans and to
calculate upstream impacts. For
vocational vehicles and combination
tractor-trailers, both Method A and
Method B use the same upstream tools
originally created for the Renewable
Fuel Standard 2 (RFS2) rulemaking
analysis,378 used in the LD GHG
rulemakings,379 HD GHG Phase 1,380
and updated for the current analysis.
The estimate of emissions associated
with production and distribution of
gasoline and diesel from crude oil is
based on emission factors in the
‘‘Greenhouse Gases, Regulated
Emissions, and Energy Use in
Transportation’’ model (GREET)
developed by DOE’s Argonne National
Lab. In some cases, the GREET values
were modified or updated by the
agencies to be consistent with the
National Emission Inventory (NEI) and
emission factors from MOVES. Method
B uses the same tool described above to
estimate the upstream impacts for HD
pickups and vans. For additional
details, see Chapter 5 of the draft RIA.
The upstream tool used for the Method
B can be found in the docket.381 As
noted in Section VI above, these
analyses corroborate each other’s
results.
The agencies analyzed the anticipated
emissions impacts of the proposed rules
and Alternative 4 on carbon dioxide
(CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide
(N2O), and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)
for a number of calendar years (for
purposes of the discussion in these
proposed rules, only 2025, 2035 and
2050 will be shown) by comparing to
both reference cases.382 Additional runs
were performed for just the three of the
greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4, and N2O)
and for fuel consumption for every
calendar year from 2014 to 2050,
inclusive, which fed the economy-wide
modeling, monetized greenhouse gas
benefits estimation, and climate impacts
378 U.S. EPA. Draft Regulatory Impact Analysis:
Changes to Renewable Fuel Standard Program.
Chapters 2 and 3. May 26, 2009. Docket ID: EPA–
HQ–OAR–2009–0472–0119
379 2017 and Later Model Year Light-Duty Vehicle
Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Corporate Average
Fuel Economy Standards (77 FR 62623, October 15,
2012).
380 Greenhouse Gas Emission Standards and Fuel
Efficiency Standards for Medium- and Heavy-Duty
Engines and Vehicles (76 FR 57106, September 15,
2011).
381 Memorandum to the Docket ‘‘Upstream
Emissions Modeling Files for HDGHG Phase 2
NPRM’’ Docket No. EPA–HQ–OAR–2014–0827.
382 The emissions impacts of the proposed rules
on non-GHGs, including air toxics, were also
estimated using MOVES. See Section VIII of the
preamble for more information.
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analyses, discussed in sections
below.383
B. Analysis of Fuel Consumption and
GHG Emissions Impacts Resulting From
Proposed Standards and Alternative 4
The following sections describe the
model inputs and assumptions for both
the less dynamic and more dynamic
reference cases and the control case
representing the agencies’ proposed fuel
efficiency and GHG standards. The
agencies request comment on the model
inputs, projected reductions in energy
rates and fuel consumption rates
presented in this section, as well as in
Chapter 5 of the draft RIA. The details
of all the MOVES runs, and input data
tables, as well as the MOVES code and
database, can be found in the docket.384
See Section VI.C for the discussion of
the model inputs and assumptions for
the analysis of the HD pickups and vans
using DOT’s CAFE Model.
(1) Model Inputs and Assumptions for
the Less Dynamic Reference Case
The less dynamic reference case
(identified as Alternative 1a in Section
X), includes the impact of Phase 1, but
generally assumes that fuel efficiency
and GHG emission standards are not
improved beyond the required 2018
model year levels. Alternative 1a
functions as one of the baselines against
which the impacts of the proposed
standards can be evaluated. This case
projects some improvements in the
efficiency of the box trailers pulled by
combination tractors due to increased
penetration of aerodynamic
technologies and low rolling resistance
tires attributed to both EPA’s SmartWay
Transport Partnership and California
Air Resources Board’s Tractor-Trailer
Greenhouse Gas regulation, as described
in Section IV of the preamble. For other
HD vehicle sectors, no market-driven
improvement in fuel efficiency was
assumed. For HD pickups and vans, the
CAFE model was applied in a manner
that assumes manufacturers would only
add fuel-saving technology as needed to
continue complying with Phase 1
standards. MOVES2014 defaults were
used for all other parameters to estimate
the emissions inventories for this case.
The less dynamic reference case
assumed the MOVES2014 default
vehicle population and miles traveled
estimates. The growth in vehicle
populations and miles traveled in
MOVES2014 is based on the relative
annual VMT growth from AEO2014
Early Release for model years 2012 and
later.385
(2) Model Inputs and Assumptions for
the More Dynamic Reference Case
The more dynamic reference case
(identified as Alternative 1b in Section
X), also includes the impact of Phase 1
and generally assumes that fuel
efficiency and GHG emission standards
are not improved beyond the required
2018 model year levels. However, for
this case, the agencies assume market
forces would lead to additional fuel
efficiency improvements for HD pickups
and vans and tractor-trailers. These
additional assumed improvements are
described in Section X of the preamble.
No additional fuel efficiency
improvements due to market forces
were assumed for vocational vehicles.
For HD pickups and vans, the agencies
applied the CAFE model using the input
assumption that manufacturers having
achieved compliance with Phase 1
standards would continue to apply
technologies for which increased
purchase costs would be ‘‘paid back’’
through corresponding fuel savings
within the first six months of vehicle
operation. The agencies conducted the
MOVES analysis of this case in the same
manner as for the less dynamic
reference case.
(3) Model Inputs and Assumptions for
‘‘Control’’ Case
(a) Vocational Vehicles and TractorTrailers
The ‘‘control’’ case represents the
agencies’ proposed fuel efficiency and
GHG standards. The agencies developed
additional user input data for MOVES
runs to estimate the control case
inventories. The inputs to MOVES for
the control case account for
improvements of engine and vehicle
efficiency in vocational vehicles and
combination tractor-trailers. The
agencies used the percent reduction in
aerodynamic drag and tire rolling
resistance coefficients and absolute
changes in average total running weight
(gross combined weight) expected from
the proposed rules to develop the road
load inputs for the control case, based
on the GEM analysis. The agencies also
used the percent reduction in CO2
emissions expected from the powertrain
and other vehicle technologies not
accounted for in the aerodynamic drag
and tire rolling resistance in the
proposed rules to develop energy inputs
for the control case runs.
Table VII–1 and Table VII–2 describe
the proposed improvements in engine
and vehicle efficiency from the
proposed rules for vocational vehicles
and combination tractor-trailers that
were input into MOVES for estimating
the control case emissions inventories.
Additional details regarding the MOVES
inputs are included in the Chapter 5 of
the draft RIA.
TABLE VII–1—ESTIMATED REDUCTIONS IN ENERGY RATES FOR THE PROPOSED STANDARDS
Fuel
Long-haul Tractor-Trailers and HHD Vocational ..........
Diesel ............................................................................
Short-haul Tractor-Trailers and HHD Vocational .........
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Vehicle type
Diesel ............................................................................
383 The CAFE model estimates, among other
things, manufacturers’ potential multiyear planning
decisions within the context of an estimated yearby-year product cadence (i.e., schedule for
redesigning and freshening vehicles). The agencies
included earlier model years in the analysis in
order to account for the potential that
manufacturers might take anticipatory actions in
model years preceding those covered by today’s
proposal.
384 Memorandum to the Docket ‘‘Runspecs, Model
Inputs, MOVES Code and Database for HD GHG
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EPA–HQ–OAR–2014–0827
385 MOVES2014 assumes the population and
VMT growth based on the early release version of
AEO2014 because it was the only version that was
available at the time of MOVES2014 development.
Annual Energy Outlook 2014. https://www.eia.gov/
forecasts/aeo/er/ (last accessed Feb 23, 2015).
386 Vocational vehicles modeled in MOVES
include heavy heavy-duty, medium heavy-duty,
and light heavy-duty vehicles. However, for light
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Model years
2018–2020
2021–2023
2024–2026
2027+
2018–2020
Reduction
from reference
case
(percent)
1.3
5.2
9.7
10.4
0.9
heavy-duty vocational vehicles, class 2b and 3
vehicles are not included in the inventories for the
vocational sector. Instead, all vocational vehicles
with GVWR of less than 14,000 lbs were modeled
using the energy rate reductions described below
for HD pickup trucks and vans. In practice, many
manufacturers of these vehicles choose to average
the lightest vocational vehicles into chassiscertified families (i.e., heavy-duty pickups and
vans).
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TABLE VII–1—ESTIMATED REDUCTIONS IN ENERGY RATES FOR THE PROPOSED STANDARDS—Continued
Vehicle type
Fuel
Single-Frame Vocational 386 .........................................
Model years
Reduction
from reference
case
(percent)
2021–2023
2024–2026
2027+
2021–2023
2024–2026
2027+
2021–2023
2024–2026
2027+
Diesel and CNG ...........................................................
Gasoline ........................................................................
5.0
9.5
10.4
5.3
8.9
13.3
3.3
5.4
10.3
TABLE VII–2—ESTIMATED REDUCTIONS IN ROAD LOAD FACTORS FOR THE PROPOSED STANDARDS
Vehicle type
Model years
Combination Long-haul Tractor-Trailers ....................................................
Combination Short-haul Tractor-Trailers 387 ..............................................
Intercity Buses ...........................................................................................
Transit Buses .............................................................................................
School Buses .............................................................................................
Refuse Trucks ............................................................................................
Single Unit Short-haul Trucks ....................................................................
Single Unit Long-haul Trucks ....................................................................
Motor Homes .............................................................................................
Reduction in
tire rolling
resistance
coefficient
(percent)
2018–2020
2021–2023
2024–2026
2027+
2018–2020
2021–2023
2024–2026
2027+
2021–2023
2024–2026
2027+
2021–2023
2024–2026
2027+
2021–2023
2024–2026
2027+
2021–2023
2024–2026
2027+
2021–2023
2024–2026
2027+
2021–2023
2024–2026
2027+
2021–2023
2024–2026
2027+
Reduction in
aerodynamic
drag coefficient
(percent)
5.5
9.8
15.7
17.9
4.0
10.5
13.9
17.6
6.5
9.2
16.5
0
2.9
3.0
0
2.9
4.0
0
2.9
3.0
4.8
8.3
13.0
6.5
9.2
16.5
3.0
6.2
7.4
5.1
15.3
20.5
26.9
1.6
9.3
12.3
15.9
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Weight
reduction
(LB) a
¥131
¥199
¥246
¥304
¥41
¥79
¥100
¥127
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
20
20
25
5.8
5.8
7
20
20
25
0
0
0
Note:
a Negative weight reductions reflect an expected weight increase as a byproduct of other vehicle and engine improvements, as described in
Chapter 5 of the draft RIA.
ebenthall on DSK3VPTVN1PROD with MISCELLANEOUS
In addition, the proposed CO2
standard for tractors reflecting the use of
auxiliary power units (APU) during
extended idling, as discussed in Section
III.D of the preamble, was included in
the modeling for the long-haul
combination tractor-trailers, as shown
below in Table VII–3.
TABLE VII–3—ASSUMED APU USE DURING EXTENDED IDLING FOR COMBINATION LONG-HAUL TRACTOR-TRAILERS
Vehicle type
Model year
Combination Long-Haul Trucks ...............................................................................................................................
387 Vocational tractors are included in the shorthaul tractor segment.
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13JYP2
2010–2020
2021–2023
APU
penetration a
(percent)
30
80
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Federal Register / Vol. 80, No. 133 / Monday, July 13, 2015 / Proposed Rules
TABLE VII–3—ASSUMED APU USE DURING EXTENDED IDLING FOR COMBINATION LONG-HAUL TRACTOR-TRAILERS—
Continued
Vehicle type
Model year
2024+
APU
penetration a
(percent)
90
Note:
a The assumed APU penetration remains constant for model years 2024 and later.
To account for the potential increase
in vehicle use expected to result from
improvements in fuel efficiency for
vocational vehicles and combination
tractor-trailers due to the proposed rules
(also known as the ‘‘rebound effect’’ and
described in more detail in Chapter 5 of
the draft RIA), the control case assumed
an increase in VMT from the reference
levels by 1.83 percent for the vocational
vehicles and 0.79 percent for the
combination tractor-trailers.
(b) Heavy-Duty Pickups and Vans
As explained above and as also
discussed in the draft RIA, the agencies
used both DOT’s CAFE model and
EPA’s MOVES model, for Method A and
B, respectively, to project fuel
consumption and GHG emissions
impacts resulting from the proposed
standards for HD pickups and vans,
including downstream vehicular
emissions as well as emissions from
upstream processes related to fuel
production, distribution, and delivery.
ebenthall on DSK3VPTVN1PROD with MISCELLANEOUS
(i) Method A for HD Pickups and Vans
For Method A, the agencies used the
CAFE model which applies fuel
properties (density and carbon content)
to estimated fuel consumption in order
to calculate vehicular CO2 emissions,
applies per-mile emission factors from
MOVES to estimated VMT (for each
regulatory alternative, adjusted to
account for the rebound effect) in order
to calculate vehicular CH4 and N2O
emissions (as well, as discussed below,
of non-GHG pollutants), and applies
per-gallon upstream emission factors
from GREET in order to calculate
upstream GHG (and non-GHG)
emissions.
As discussed above in Section VI, the
proposed standards for HD pickups and
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vans—that is, the functions defining
fuel consumption and GHG targets that
each depend work factor—increase in
stringency by 2.5 percent annually
during model years 2021–2027. The
standards define targets specific to each
vehicle model, but no vehicle is
required to meet its target; instead, the
production-weighted averages of the
vehicle-specific targets define average
fuel consumption and CO2 emission
rates that a given manufacturer’s overall
fleet of produced vehicles is required to
achieve. The standards are specified
separately for gasoline and diesel
vehicles, and vary with work factor.
Work factors could change, and today’s
analysis assumes that some applications
of mass reduction could enable
increased work factor in cases where
manufacturers could increase a vehicle’s
rated payload and/or towing capacity.
Therefore, average required levels will
depend on the mix of vehicles and work
factors of the vehicles produced for sale
in the U.S., and since these can only be
estimated at this time, average required
and achieved fuel consumption and CO2
emission rates are subject to
uncertainty. Between today’s notice and
issuance of the ensuing final rule, the
agencies intend to update the market
forecast (and other inputs) used to
analyze HD pickup and van standards,
and expect that doing so will lead to
different estimates of required and
achieved fuel consumption and CO2
emission rates (as well as different
estimates of impacts, costs, and
benefits).
The following four tables present
stringency increases and estimated
required and achieved fuel consumption
and CO2 emission rates for the two No
Action Alternatives (Alternative 1a and
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Fmt 4701
Sfmt 4702
1b) and the proposed standards defining
the Preferred Alternative. Stringency
increases are shown relative to
standards applicable in model year 2018
(and through model year 2020). As
mathematical functions, the standards
themselves are not subject to
uncertainty. By 2027, they are 16.2
percent more stringent (i.e., lower) than
those applicable during 2018–2020.
NHTSA estimates that, by model 2027,
the proposed standards could reduce
average required fuel consumption and
CO2 emission rates to about 4.86
gallons/100 miles and about 458 grams/
mile, respectively. NHTSA further
estimates that average achieved fuel
consumption and CO2 emission rates
could correspondingly be reduced to
about the same levels. If, as represented
by Alternative 1b, manufacturers would,
even absent today’s proposed standards,
voluntarily make improvements that
pay back within six months, these
model year 2027 levels are about 13.5
percent lower than the agencies estimate
could be achieved under the Phase 1
standards defining the No Action
Alternative. If, as represented by
Alternative 1a, manufacturers would,
absent today’s proposed standards, only
apply technology as required to achieve
compliance, these model year 2027
levels are about 15 percent lower than
the agencies estimate could be achieved
under the Phase 1 standards. As
indicated below, the agencies estimate
that these improvements in fuel
consumption and CO2 emission rates
would build from model year to model
year, beginning as soon as model year
2017 (insofar as manufacturers may
make anticipatory improvements if
warranted given planned produce
cadence).
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TABLE VII–4—STRINGENCY OF HD PICKUP AND VAN STANDARDS, ESTIMATED AVERAGE REQUIRED AND ACHIEVED FUEL
CONSUMPTION RATES FOR METHOD A, RELATIVE TO ALTERNATIVE 1b a
Model year
2014 ......................
2015 ......................
2016 ......................
2017 ......................
2018 ......................
2019 ......................
2020 ......................
2021 ......................
2022 ......................
2023 ......................
2024 ......................
2025 ......................
2026 ......................
2027 ......................
2028* .....................
2029* .....................
2030* .....................
Stringency (vs.
2018) (%)
Ave. required fuel cons. (gal./100 mi.)
No action
MYs 2014–2020
Subject to Phase
1 Standards.
Proposed
6.41
6.41
6.27
6.11
5.80
5.78
5.78
5.77
5.77
5.77
5.77
5.77
5.77
5.77
5.77
5.77
5.77
2.5 ........................
4.9 ........................
7.3 ........................
9.6 ........................
11.9 ......................
14.1 ......................
16.2 ......................
16.2 ......................
16.2 ......................
16.2 ......................
Ave. achieved fuel cons. (gal./100 mi.)
Reduction (%)
6.41
6.41
6.27
6.11
5.80
5.78
5.78
5.64
5.50
5.38
5.25
5.12
4.98
4.86
4.86
4.86
4.86
No action
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.2
4.7
6.8
9.0
11.4
13.7
15.8
15.8
15.8
15.8
6.21
6.12
6.15
5.89
5.75
5.72
5.69
5.63
5.63
5.63
5.63
5.63
5.63
5.62
5.62
5.62
5.62
Proposed
Reduction (%)
6.21
6.12
6.15
5.88
5.70
5.68
5.64
5.42
5.42
5.28
5.23
4.99
4.93
4.86
4.86
4.85
4.85
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.8
0.7
0.8
3.8
3.8
6.3
7.1
11.5
12.5
13.7
13.7
13.7
13.7
Notes:
a For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
*Absent further action, standards assumed to continue unchanged after model year 2027.
TABLE VII–5—STRINGENCY OF HD PICKUP AND VAN STANDARDS, ESTIMATED AVERAGE REQUIRED AND ACHIEVED CO2
EMISSION RATES FOR METHOD A, RELATIVE TO ALTERNATIVE 1B A
Model year
2014 ......................
2015 ......................
2016 ......................
2017 ......................
2018 ......................
2019 ......................
2020 ......................
2021 ......................
2022 ......................
2023 ......................
2024 ......................
2025 ......................
2026 ......................
2027 ......................
2028* .....................
2029* .....................
2030* .....................
Stringency (vs.
2018) (%)
Ave. required CO2 Rate (g./mi.)
No action
MYs 2014–2020
Subject to Phase
1 Standards.
Proposed
602
608
593
578
548
545
545
544
544
544
544
544
544
544
544
544
544
2.5 ........................
4.9 ........................
7.3 ........................
9.6 ........................
11.9 ......................
14.1 ......................
16.2 ......................
16.2 ......................
16.2 ......................
16.2 ......................
Ave. achieved CO2 Rate (g./mi.)
Reduction
602
608
593
578
548
545
545
532
519
507
495
482
470
458
458
458
458
No Action
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.2
4.7
6.8
9.1
11.3
13.6
15.8
15.8
15.8
15.8
581
578
580
556
543
539
536
530
530
530
530
530
530
529
529
529
529
Proposed
Reduction (%)
581
578
580
554
538
535
532
510
510
496
492
470
465
458
458
458
458
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.8
0.7
0.8
3.8
3.8
6.4
7.2
11.3
12.3
13.4
13.4
13.5
13.5
Notes:
a For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
*Absent further action, standards assumed to continue unchanged after model year 2027.
TABLE VII–6—STRINGENCY OF HD PICKUP AND VAN STANDARDS, ESTIMATED AVERAGE REQUIRED AND ACHIEVED FUEL
CONSUMPTION RATES FOR METHOD A, RELATIVE TO ALTERNATIVE 1a a
Stringency (vs.
2018)(%)
ebenthall on DSK3VPTVN1PROD with MISCELLANEOUS
Model year
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
....................
....................
....................
....................
....................
....................
....................
....................
....................
....................
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Ave. required fuel cons. (gal./100 mi.)
No action
MYs 2014–2020
Subject to Phase
1 Standards.
6.41
6.41
6.27
6.11
5.80
5.78
5.78
5.77
5.77
5.77
2.5 ...........................
4.9 ...........................
7.3 ...........................
06:45 Jul 11, 2015
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Proposed
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Reduction (%)
6.41
6.41
6.27
6.11
5.80
5.78
5.78
5.64
5.50
5.38
Fmt 4701
Sfmt 4702
Ave. achieved fuel cons. (gal./100 mi.)
No Action
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
**∧0.0
0.0
0.0
2.3
4.7
6.8
E:\FR\FM\13JYP2.SGM
6.21
6.12
6.15
5.89
5.75
5.73
5.73
5.72
5.72
5.72
13JYP2
Proposed
6.21
6.12
6.15
5.87
5.70
5.68
5.68
5.44
5.44
5.29
Reduction (%)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.9
0.8
0.8
4.8
4.8
7.6
40396
Federal Register / Vol. 80, No. 133 / Monday, July 13, 2015 / Proposed Rules
TABLE VII–6—STRINGENCY OF HD PICKUP AND VAN STANDARDS, ESTIMATED AVERAGE REQUIRED AND ACHIEVED FUEL
CONSUMPTION RATES FOR METHOD A, RELATIVE TO ALTERNATIVE 1a a—Continued
Stringency (vs.
2018)(%)
Model year
2024 ....................
2025 ....................
2026 ....................
2027 ....................
2028* ..................
2029* ..................
2030* ..................
Ave. required fuel cons. (gal./100 mi.)
No action
9.6 ...........................
11.9 .........................
14.1 .........................
16.2 .........................
16.2 .........................
16.2 .........................
16.2 .........................
Proposed
5.77
5.77
5.77
5.77
5.77
5.77
5.77
Ave. achieved fuel cons. (gal./100 mi.)
Reduction (%)
5.25
5.12
4.98
4.86
4.86
4.86
4.86
No Action
9.1
11.4
13.7
15.8
15.8
15.8
15.8
5.72
5.72
5.72
5.72
5.72
5.72
5.72
Proposed
Reduction (%)
5.23
4.98
4.94
4.87
4.87
4.86
4.86
8.5
12.9
13.6
14.9
14.9
15.0
15.0
Notes:
a For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
*Absent further action, standards assumed to continue unchanged after model year 2027.
**Increased work factor for some vehicles produces a slight increase in average required fuel consumption.
TABLE VII–7—STRINGENCY OF HD PICKUP AND VAN STANDARDS, ESTIMATED AVERAGE REQUIRED AND ACHIEVED CO2
EMISSION RATES FOR METHOD A, RELATIVE TO ALTERNATIVE 1A A
Model year
2014 ......................
2015 ......................
2016 ......................
2017 ......................
2018 ......................
2019 ......................
2020 ......................
2021 ......................
2022 ......................
2023 ......................
2024 ......................
2025 ......................
2026 ......................
2027 ......................
2028* .....................
2029* .....................
2030* .....................
Stringency (vs.
2018) (%)
Ave. required CO2 Rate (g./mi.)
No action
MYs 2014–2020
Subject to Phase
1 Standards.
Proposed
6.02
6.08
593
578
548
545
545
544
544
544
544
544
544
544
544
544
544
2.5 ........................
4.9 ........................
7.3 ........................
9.6 ........................
11.9 ......................
14.1 ......................
16.2 ......................
16.2 ......................
16.2 ......................
16.2 ......................
Ave. achieved CO2 Rate (g./mi.)
Reduction (%)
602
608
593
578
548
546
545
532
519
507
495
482
470
458
458
458
458
No action
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
**¥0.0
**¥0.1
**¥0.1
2.2
4.7
6.8
9.1
11.4
13.6
15.8
15.8
15.8
15.8
581
578
580
556
543
539
539
538
538
538
538
538
538
538
538
538
538
Proposed
581
578
580
554
538
535
535
512
512
497
492
470
466
459
459
459
459
Reduction (%)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.9
0.8
0.8
4.9
4.9
7.7
8.6
12.7
13.4
14.7
14.7
14.8
14.8
ebenthall on DSK3VPTVN1PROD with MISCELLANEOUS
Notes:
a For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
*Absent further action, standards assumed to continue unchanged after model year 2027.
**Increased work factor for some vehicles produces a slight increase in the average required CO2 emission rate.
While the above tables show the
agencies’ estimates of average fuel
consumption and CO2 emission rates
manufacturers might achieve under
today’s proposed standards, total U.S.
fuel consumption and GHG emissions
from HD pickups and vans will also
depend on how many of these vehicles
are produced, and how they are
operated over their useful lives.
Relevant to estimating these outcomes,
the CAFE model applies vintage-specific
estimates of vehicle survival and
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mileage accumulation, and adjusts the
latter to account for the rebound effect.
This impact of the rebound effect is
specific to each model year (and,
underlying, to each vehicle model in
each model year), varying with changes
in achieved fuel consumption rates.
(ii) Method B for HD Pickups and Vans
For Method B, the MOVES model was
used to estimate fuel consumption and
GHG emissions for HD pickups and
vans. MOVES evaluated the proposed
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Sfmt 4702
standards for HD pickup trucks and
vans in terms of grams of CO2 per mile
or gallons of fuel per 100 miles. Since
nearly all HD pickup trucks and vans
are certified on a chassis dynamometer,
the CO2 reductions for these vehicles
were not represented as engine and road
load reduction components, but rather
as total vehicle CO2 reductions. The
control case for HD pickups and vans
assumed an increase in VMT from the
reference levels by 1.18 percent for HD
pickups and vans.
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Federal Register / Vol. 80, No. 133 / Monday, July 13, 2015 / Proposed Rules
TABLE VII–8—ESTIMATED TOTAL VEHICLE CO2 REDUCTIONS FOR THE PROPOSED STANDARDS AND IN-USE EMISSIONS
FOR HD PICKUP TRUCKS AND VANS IN METHOD B a
Model year
Vehicle type
Fuel
HD pickup trucks and vans .............................................................................
Gasoline and Diesel ...........................
CO2 reduction from
reference
case
(%)
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027+
2.50
4.94
7.31
9.63
11.89
14.09
16.24
Notes:
a For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
C. What are the projected reductions in
fuel consumption and GHG emissions?
NHTSA and EPA expect significant
reductions in GHG emissions and fuel
consumption from the proposed rules—
fuel consumption reductions from more
efficient vehicles, emission reductions
from both downstream (tailpipe) and
upstream (fuel production and
distribution) sources, and HFC
emissions from the proposed air
conditioning leakage standards. The
following subsections summarize two
slightly different analyses of the annual
GHG emissions and fuel consumption
reductions expected from these
proposed rules, as well as the
reductions in GHG emissions and fuel
consumption expected over the lifetime
of each heavy-duty vehicle categories. In
addition, because the agencies are
carefully considering Alternative 4
along with Alternative 3, the preferred
alternative, the results from both are
presented here for the reader’s
reference. Section VII. C. (1) shows the
impacts of the proposed rules and
Alternative 4 on fuel consumption and
GHG emissions using the MOVES model
for tractor-trailers and vocational
vehicles, and the DOT’s CAFE model for
HD pickups and vans (Method A),
relative to two different reference
cases—less dynamic and more dynamic.
Section VII. C. (2) shows the impacts of
the proposed standards and Alternative
4, relative to the less dynamic reference
case only, using the MOVES model for
all heavy-duty vehicle categories.
NHTSA also analyzes these impacts
resulting from the proposed rules and
reasonable alternatives in Chapters 3
and 5 of its DEIS.
(1) Impacts of the Proposed Rules and
Alternative 4 Using Analysis Method A
(a) Calendar Year Analysis
(i) Downstream (Tailpipe) Emissions
Projections
As described in Section VII. A, for the
analysis using Method A, the agencies
used MOVES to estimate downstream
GHG inventories from the proposed
rules for vocational vehicles and tractortrailers. For HD pickups and vans,
DOT’s CAFE model was used.
The following two tables summarize
the agencies’ estimates of HD pickup
and van fuel consumption and GHG
emissions under the current and
proposed standards defining the NoAction and Preferred alternatives,
respectively, using Method A. Table
VII–9 shows results assuming
manufacturers would voluntarily make
improvements that pay back within six
months (i.e., Alternative 1b). Table VII–
10 shows results assuming
manufacturers would only make
improvements as needed to achieve
compliance with standards (i.e.,
Alternative 1a). While underlying
calculations are all performed for each
calendar year during each vehicle’s
useful life, presentation of outcomes on
a model year basis aligns more clearly
with consideration of cost impacts in
each model year, and with
consideration of standards specified on
a model year basis. In addition, Method
A analyzes manufacturers’ potential
responses to HD pickup and van
standards on a model year basis through
2030, and any longer-term costs
presented in today’s notice represent
extrapolation of these results absent any
underlying analysis of longer-term
technology prospects and
manufacturers’ longer-term product
offerings.
TABLE VII–9—ESTIMATED FUEL CONSUMPTION AND GHG EMISSIONS OVER USEFUL LIFE OF HD PICKUPS AND VANS
PRODUCED IN EACH MODEL YEAR FOR METHOD A, RELATIVE TO ALTERNATIVE 1b a
Fuel consumption (b. gal.) over fleet’s
useful life
GHG emissions (MMT CO2eq) over
fleet’s useful life
Model year
ebenthall on DSK3VPTVN1PROD with MISCELLANEOUS
No action
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
.................................................................................
.................................................................................
.................................................................................
.................................................................................
.................................................................................
.................................................................................
.................................................................................
.................................................................................
.................................................................................
.................................................................................
.................................................................................
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9.41
9.53
9.72
9.49
9.26
9.20
9.19
9.10
9.13
9.11
9.32
Fmt 4701
Proposed
9.41
9.53
9.72
9.47
9.19
9.14
9.12
8.79
8.82
8.59
8.72
Sfmt 4702
Reduction
(%)
No action
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.7
0.7
0.7
3.4
3.4
5.7
6.4
E:\FR\FM\13JYP2.SGM
115
117
119
116
113
113
112
111
112
111
114
13JYP2
Proposed
115
117
119
116
113
112
112
107
108
105
107
Reduction
(%)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.7
0.7
0.7
3.4
3.4
5.7
6.4
40398
Federal Register / Vol. 80, No. 133 / Monday, July 13, 2015 / Proposed Rules
TABLE VII–9—ESTIMATED FUEL CONSUMPTION AND GHG EMISSIONS OVER USEFUL LIFE OF HD PICKUPS AND VANS
PRODUCED IN EACH MODEL YEAR FOR METHOD A, RELATIVE TO ALTERNATIVE 1b a—Continued
Fuel consumption (b. gal.) over fleet’s
useful life
GHG emissions (MMT CO2eq) over
fleet’s useful life
Model year
No action
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
.................................................................................
.................................................................................
.................................................................................
.................................................................................
.................................................................................
.................................................................................
9.49
9.67
9.78
9.90
10.02
10.03
Proposed
Reduction
(%)
8.49
8.56
8.55
8.66
8.75
8.76
No action
10.5
11.5
12.6
12.6
12.6
12.6
116
118
120
121
122
123
Proposed
104
105
105
106
107
107
Reduction
(%)
10.4
11.3
12.3
12.3
12.4
12.4
Note:
a For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
TABLE VII–10—ESTIMATED FUEL CONSUMPTION AND GHG EMISSIONS OVER USEFUL LIFE OF HD PICKUPS AND VANS
PRODUCED IN EACH MODEL YEAR FOR METHOD A, RELATIVE TO ALTERNATIVE 1a a
Fuel consumption (b. gal.) over fleet’s
useful life
GHG Emissions (MMT CO2eq) over
fleet’s useful life
Model year
No action
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
.................................................................................
.................................................................................
.................................................................................
.................................................................................
.................................................................................
.................................................................................
.................................................................................
.................................................................................
.................................................................................
.................................................................................
.................................................................................
.................................................................................
.................................................................................
.................................................................................
.................................................................................
.................................................................................
.................................................................................
9.41
9.53
9.72
9.49
9.27
9.20
9.25
9.23
9.26
9.23
9.45
9.62
9.81
9.93
10.05
10.17
10.18
Proposed
Reduction
(%)
9.41
9.53
9.72
9.46
9.19
9.14
9.18
8.82
8.85
8.60
8.72
8.48
8.58
8.57
8.68
8.77
8.78
No action
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.8
0.7
0.7
4.4
4.4
6.9
7.7
11.8
12.5
13.7
13.7
13.7
13.7
115
117
119
116
114
113
113
113
113
113
116
118
120
121
123
124
124
Proposed
115
117
119
116
113
112
112
108
108
105
107
104
105
105
106
108
108
Reduction
(%)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.8
0.7
0.8
4.4
4.4
6.9
7.7
11.7
12.3
13.5
13.5
13.5
13.5
Note:
a For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
ebenthall on DSK3VPTVN1PROD with MISCELLANEOUS
To more clearly communicate these
trends visually, the following two charts
present the above results graphically for
Method A, relative to Alternative 1b. As
shown, fuel consumption and GHG
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emissions follow parallel though not
precisely identical paths. Though not
presented, the charts for Alternative 1a
would appear sufficiently similar that
differences between Alternative 1a and
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Alternative 1b remain best
communicated by comparing values in
the above tables.
E:\FR\FM\13JYP2.SGM
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11
Qj
10
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9
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0
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..-i
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0
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0
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0
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0
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0
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N
0
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m
0
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ffl
N
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0
0
Model Year
Figure VII-9 Fuel Consumption (b. gal.) over Useful Life of HD Pickups and Vans Produced in Each Model
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Year for Method A
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TABLE VII–11 ANNUAL DOWNSTREAM GHG EMISSIONS IMPACTS IN CALENDAR YEARS 2025, 2035 AND 2050—
PREFERRED ALTERNATIVE VS. ALT 1b USING ANALYSIS METHOD A a
CO2
(MMT)
CY
2025 .................................................................................................................................
2035 .................................................................................................................................
2050 .................................................................................................................................
¥26.9
¥86.0
¥121.6
CH4
(MMT
CO2eq)
Total downstream
(MMT
CO2eq)
N 2O
(MMT
CO2eq)9
¥0.4
¥1.0
¥1.4
0
0
0
¥27.2
¥86.9
¥123.0
Note:
a For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
TABLE VII–12—ANNUAL FUEL SAVINGS IN CALENDAR YEARS 2025, 2035 AND 2050—PREFERRED ALTERNATIVE VS. ALT
1b USING ANALYSIS METHOD A a
Diesel savings
(billion gallons)
2025 .........................................................................................................................................................................
2035 .........................................................................................................................................................................
2050 .........................................................................................................................................................................
Gasoline
savings
(billion gallons)
2.5
7.6
10.8
0.2
0.9
1.2
Note:
a For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
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CY
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Federal Register / Vol. 80, No. 133 / Monday, July 13, 2015 / Proposed Rules
TABLE VII–13—ANNUAL DOWNSTREAM GHG EMISSIONS IMPACTS IN CALENDAR YEARS 2025, 2035 AND 2050—
PREFERRED ALTERNATIVE VS. ALT 1a USING ANALYSIS METHOD A a
CH4
(MMT CO2eq)
CO2
(MMT)
CY
N 2O
(MMT CO2eq)9
Total downstream (MMT
CO2eq)
¥0.4
¥1.0
¥1.4
0
0
0
¥28.1
¥94.6
¥134.9
¥27.7
¥93.6
¥133.5
2025 .................................................................................................................
2035 .................................................................................................................
2050 .................................................................................................................
Note:
a For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
TABLE VII–14—ANNUAL FUEL SAVINGS TABLE VII–14—ANNUAL FUEL SAVINGS
IN CALENDAR YEARS 2025, 2035
IN CALENDAR YEARS 2025, 2035
AND
2050—PREFERRED ALTERAND
2050—PREFERRED ALTERNATIVE VS. ALT 1a USING ANALYSIS
NATIVE VS. ALT 1a USING ANALYSIS
METHOD A a
METHOD A a—Continued
Diesel savings
(billion gallons)
CY
2025 ..................
2035 ..................
Gasoline
savings
(billion gallons)
2.5
8.3
0.2
1.0
Diesel savings
(billion gallons)
CY
Gasoline
savings
(billion gallons)
11.9
a For an explanation of analytical Methods A
and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and
more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
1.3
2050 ..................
Note:
TABLE VII–15—ANNUAL DOWNSTREAM GHG EMISSIONS IMPACTS IN CALENDAR YEARS 2025, 2035 AND 2050—
ALTERNATIVE 4 VS. ALT 1B USING ANALYSIS METHOD A A
CH4
(MMT CO2eq)
CO2
(MMT)
CY
N 2O
(MMT CO2eq)9
Total downstream (MMT
CO2eq)
¥0.4
¥1.0
¥1.4
0
0
0
¥33.5
¥90.9
¥124.0
¥33.2
¥89.9
¥122.6
2025 .................................................................................................................
2035 .................................................................................................................
2050 .................................................................................................................
Note:
a For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
TABLE VII–16—ANNUAL FUEL SAVINGS TABLE VII–16—ANNUAL FUEL SAVINGS
IN CALENDAR YEARS 2025, 2035
IN CALENDAR YEARS 2025, 2035
AND 2050—ALTERNATIVE 4 VS. ALT
AND 2050—ALTERNATIVE 4 VS. ALT
1b USING ANALYSIS METHOD A a
1b USING ANALYSIS METHOD A a—
Continued
Diesel
savings
(billion
gallons)
CY
2025 ..................
2035 ..................
Gasoline
savings
(billion
gallons)
3.0
7.9
0.3
1.0
Diesel
savings
(billion
gallons)
CY
2050 ..................
a For an explanation of analytical Methods A
and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and
more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
Gasoline
savings
(billion
gallons)
10.8
1.3
Note:
TABLE VII–17—ANNUAL DOWNSTREAM GHG EMISSIONS IMPACTS IN CALENDAR YEARS 2025, 2035 AND 2050—
ALTERNATIVE 4 VS. ALT 1a USING ANALYSIS METHOD A a
CO2
(MMT)
ebenthall on DSK3VPTVN1PROD with MISCELLANEOUS
CY
2025 .................................................................................................................
2035 .................................................................................................................
2050 .................................................................................................................
CH4
(MMT CO2eq)
¥34.3
¥97.7
¥134.6
¥0.4
¥1.0
¥1.4
N 2O
(MMT
CO2eq) 9
Total downstream (MMT
CO2eq)
0
0
0
¥34.6
¥98.7
¥136.0
Note:
a For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
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Federal Register / Vol. 80, No. 133 / Monday, July 13, 2015 / Proposed Rules
TABLE VII–18—ANNUAL FUEL SAVINGS TABLE VII–18—ANNUAL FUEL SAVINGS a For an explanation of analytical Methods A
and B, please see Section I.D; for an explaIN CALENDAR YEARS 2025, 2035
IN CALENDAR YEARS 2025, 2035 nation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and
AND 2050—ALTERNATIVE 4 VS. ALT
AND 2050—ALTERNATIVE 4 VS. ALT more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Sec1A USING ANALYSIS METHOD A a
1A USING ANALYSIS METHOD A a— tion X.A.1.
Continued
(ii) Upstream (Fuel Production and
Diesel
savings
(billion
gallons)
CY
2025 ..................
2035 ..................
Gasoline
savings
(billion
gallons)
3.1
8.6
0.3
1.1
Diesel
savings
(billion
gallons)
CY
2050 ..................
Gasoline
savings
(billion
gallons)
12.0
Distribution) Emissions Projections
1.3
Note:
TABLE VII–19—ANNUAL UPSTREAM GHG EMISSIONS IMPACTS IN CALENDAR YEARS 2025, 2035 AND 2050—PREFERRED
ALTERNATIVE VS. ALT 1b USING ANALYSIS METHOD A a
CO2
(MMT)
CY
2025 .................................................................................................................
2035 .................................................................................................................
2050 .................................................................................................................
CH4
(MMT CO2eq)
N 2O
(MMT CO2eq)
Total upstream
(MMT CO2eq)
¥0.9
¥2.8
¥4.0
¥0.1
¥0.2
¥0.3
¥9.3
¥29.7
¥42.0
¥8.4
¥26.6
¥37.7
Note:
a For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
TABLE VII–20—ANNUAL UPSTREAM GHG EMISSIONS IMPACTS IN CALENDAR YEARS 2025, 2035 AND 2050—PREFERRED
ALTERNATIVE VS. ALT 1A USING ANALYSIS METHOD A a
CO2
(MMT)
CY
2025 .................................................................................................................
2035 .................................................................................................................
2050 .................................................................................................................
CH4
(MMT CO2eq)
N 2O
(MMT CO2eq)
Total upstream
(MMT CO2eq)
¥0.9
¥3.1
¥4.4
¥0.1
¥0.2
¥0.3
¥9.6
¥32.3
¥46.1
¥8.6
¥29.0
¥41.4
Note:
a For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
TABLE VII–21—ANNUAL UPSTREAM GHG EMISSIONS IMPACTS IN CALENDAR YEARS 2025, 2035 AND 2050—
ALTERNATIVE 4 VS. ALT 1b USING ANALYSIS METHOD A a
CO2
(MMT)
CY
2025 .................................................................................................................
2035 .................................................................................................................
2050 .................................................................................................................
CH4
(MMT CO2eq)
N 2O
(MMT CO2eq)
Total upstream
(MMT CO2eq)
¥1.1
¥3.0
¥4.0
¥0.1
¥0.2
¥0.3
¥11.5
¥31.0
¥42.3
¥10.3
¥27.8
¥38.0
Note:
a For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
TABLE VII–22—ANNUAL UPSTREAM GHG EMISSIONS IMPACTS IN CALENDAR YEARS 2025, 2035 AND 2050—
ALTERNATIVE 4 VS. ALT 1a USING ANALYSIS METHOD A a
CO2
(MMT)
ebenthall on DSK3VPTVN1PROD with MISCELLANEOUS
CY
2025 .................................................................................................................
2035 .................................................................................................................
2050 .................................................................................................................
CH4
(MMT CO2eq)
N 2O
(MMT CO2eq)
Total upstream
(MMT CO2eq)
¥1.1
¥3.2
¥4.4
¥0.1
¥0.2
¥0.3
¥11.8
¥33.7
¥46.5
¥10.6
¥30.2
¥41.7
Note:
a For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
(iii) HFC Emissions Projections
The projected HFC emission
reductions due to the proposed AC
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leakage standards are 93,272 metric tons
of CO2eq in 2025, 253,118 metric tons
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of CO2eq in 2035, and 299,590 metric
tons CO2eq in 2050.
(iv) Total (Downstream + Upstream +
HFC) Emissions Projections
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Federal Register / Vol. 80, No. 133 / Monday, July 13, 2015 / Proposed Rules
TABLE VII–23—ANNUAL TOTAL GHG EMISSIONS IMPACTS IN CALENDAR YEARS 2025, 2035 AND 2050—PREFERRED
ALTERNATIVE VS. ALT 1b USING ANALYSIS METHOD A a
2035 (MMT
CO2eq)
CY
2025 (MMT CO2eq)
Downstream ....................................................................................................
Upstream .........................................................................................................
HFC .................................................................................................................
Total .........................................................................................................
¥27.2 .................................................
¥9.3 ...................................................
¥0.09 .................................................
¥36.4 .................................................
2050 (MMT
CO2eq)
¥86.9
¥29.7
¥0.25
¥116.4
¥123.0
¥42.0
¥0.3
¥164.7
Note:
a For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
TABLE VII–24—ANNUAL TOTAL GHG EMISSIONS IMPACTS IN CALENDAR YEARS 2025, 2035 AND 2050 2050—
PREFERRED ALTERNATIVE VS. ALT 1a USING ANALYSIS METHOD A a
2035 (MMT
CO2eq)
CY
2025 (MMT CO2eq)
Downstream ....................................................................................................
Upstream .........................................................................................................
HFC .................................................................................................................
Total .........................................................................................................
¥28.1 .................................................
¥9.6 ...................................................
¥0.09 .................................................
¥37.6 .................................................
2050 (MMT
CO2eq)
¥94.6
¥32.3
¥0.25
¥126.4
¥134.9
¥46.1
¥0.3
¥180.7
Note:
a For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
TABLE VII–25—ANNUAL TOTAL GHG EMISSIONS IMPACTS IN CALENDAR YEARS 2025, 2035 AND 2050—ALTERNATIVE 4
VS. ALT 1b USING ANALYSIS METHOD A a
CY
2035 (MMT
CO2eq)
2025 (MMT CO2eq)
Downstream ....................................................................................................
Upstream .........................................................................................................
HFC .................................................................................................................
Total .........................................................................................................
¥33.5
¥11.5
¥0.09
¥44.9
.................................................
.................................................
.................................................
.................................................
2050 (MMT
CO2eq)
¥90.9
¥31.0
¥0.25
¥121.7
¥124.0
¥42.3
¥0.3
¥166.0
Note:
a For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
TABLE VII–26—ANNUAL TOTAL GHG EMISSIONS IMPACTS IN CALENDAR YEARS 2025, 2035 AND 2050 2050—
ALTERNATIVE 4 VS. ALT 1a USING ANALYSIS METHOD A a
CY
2035 (MMT
CO2eq)
2025 (MMT CO2eq)
Downstream ....................................................................................................
Upstream .........................................................................................................
HFC .................................................................................................................
Total .........................................................................................................
¥34.6
¥11.8
¥0.09
¥46.3
.................................................
.................................................
.................................................
.................................................
2050 (MMT
CO2eq)
¥98.7
¥33.7
¥0.25
¥132.2
¥136.0
¥46.5
¥0.3
¥182.2
Note:
a For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
(b) Model Year Lifetime Analysis
ebenthall on DSK3VPTVN1PROD with MISCELLANEOUS
TABLE VII–27—LIFETIME GHG REDUCTIONS AND FUEL SAVINGS USING ANALYSIS METHOD A—SUMMARY FOR MODEL
YEARS 2018–2029 a
Alternative 3 (proposed)
1b (More
Dynamic)
No–Action Alternative (Baseline)
Fuel Savings (Billion Gallons) .........................................................................................
Total GHG Reductions (MMT CO2eq) .....................................................................
Downstream (MMT CO2eq) ...............................................................................
Upstream (MMT CO2eq) ...................................................................................
72.2
974
726.1
247.7
1a (Less
Dynamic)
76.7
1,034
771.3
262.9
Note:
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Alternative 4
1b (More
Dynamic)
81.9
1,102
821.9
279.9
1a (Less
Dynamic)
86.7
1,166
870.3
296.1
40404
Federal Register / Vol. 80, No. 133 / Monday, July 13, 2015 / Proposed Rules
a For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
(2) Impacts of the Proposed Rules and
Alternative 4 using Analysis Method B
(a) Calendar Year Analysis
(i) Downstream (Tailpipe) Emissions
Projections
As described in Section VII. A., the
Method B used MOVES to estimate
downstream GHG inventories from the
proposed rules and Alternative 4
relative to Alternative 1a for all heavyduty vehicle categories (including the
engines associated with tractor-trailer
combinations and vocational vehicles).
The agencies expect reductions in CO2
emissions from all heavy-duty vehicle
categories due to engine and vehicle
improvements. We expect N2O
emissions to increase very slightly
because of a rebound in vehicle miles
traveled (VMT). However, since N2O is
produced as a byproduct of fuel
combustion, the increase in N2O
emissions is expected to be more than
offset by the improvements in fuel
efficiency from the proposed rules.388
We expect methane emissions to
decrease primarily due to reduced
refueling from improved fuel efficiency
and the differences in hydrocarbon
emission characteristics between onroad diesel engines and APUs. The
amount of methane emitted as a fraction
of total hydrocarbons is expected to be
significantly less for APUs than for onroad diesel engines during extended
idling. Overall, the downstream GHG
emissions would be reduced
significantly and are described in the
following subsections.
Since fuel consumption is not directly
modeled in MOVES, the total energy
consumption was run as a surrogate in
MOVES. Then, the total energy
consumption was converted to fuel
consumption based on the fuel heating
values assumed in the Renewable Fuels
Standard rulemaking 389 and used in the
development of MOVES emission and
energy rates.390
Table VII–28 and Table VII–29 show
the impacts on downstream GHG
emissions and fuel savings in 2025,
2035 and 2050, relative to Alternative
1a, for the preferred alternative and
Alternative 4, respectively.
Table VII–30 and Table VII–31 show
the estimated fuel savings from the
preferred alternative and Alternative 4
in 2025, 2035, and 2050, relative to
Alternative 1a. For both GHG emissions
and fuel savings, the annual impacts are
greater for Alternative 4 than the
preferred alternative in earlier years, but
the differences become
indistinguishable by 2050. The results
from the comparable analyses relative to
Alternative 1b are presented in Section
VII. C. (1).
TABLE VII–28—ANNUAL DOWNSTREAM GHG EMISSIONS IMPACTS IN CALENDAR YEARS 2025, 2035 AND 2050—
PREFERRED ALTERNATIVE VS. ALT 1a USING ANALYSIS METHOD B a
CH4
(MMT
CO2eq)
CO2
(MMT)
CY
2025 .................................................................................................................................
2035 .................................................................................................................................
2050 .................................................................................................................................
¥27.0
¥93.7
¥135.1
¥0.4
¥1.0
¥1.4
N 2O
(MMT
CO2eq)
0.002
0.004
0.005
Total
downstream
(MMT
CO2eq)
¥27.4
¥94.7
¥136.5
Note:
a For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
TABLE VII–29—ANNUAL DOWNSTREAM GHG EMISSIONS IMPACTS IN CALENDAR YEARS 2025, 2035 AND 2050—
ALTERNATIVE 4 VS. ALT 1A USING ANALYSIS METHOD B a
CH4
(MMT
CO2eq)
CO2
(MMT)
CY
2025 .................................................................................................................................
2035 .................................................................................................................................
2050 .................................................................................................................................
¥33.3
¥97.3
¥135.5
¥0.4
¥1.0
¥1.4
N 2O
(MMT
CO2eq)
0.002
0.004
0.005
Total
downstream
(MMT
CO2eq)
¥33.7
¥98.3
¥136.9
ebenthall on DSK3VPTVN1PROD with MISCELLANEOUS
Note:
a For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
388 MOVES is not capable of modeling the
changes in exhaust N2O emissions from the
improvements in fuel efficiency. Due to this
limitation, a conservative approach was taken to
only model the VMT rebound in estimating the
emissions impact on N2O from the proposed rules,
resulting in a slight increase in downstream N2O
inventory.
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389 Renewable Fuels Standards assumptions of
115,000 BTU/gallon gasoline (E0) and 76,330 BTU/
gallon ethanol (E100) were weighted 90% and 10%,
respectively, for E10 and 85% and 15%,
respectively, for E15 and converted to kJ at 1.055
kJ/BTU. The conversion factors are 117,245 kJ/
gallon for gasoline blended with ten percent ethanol
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(E10) and 115,205 kJ/gallon for gasoline blended
with fifteen percent ethanol (E15).
390 The conversion factor for diesel is 138,451 kJ/
gallon. See MOVES2004 Energy and Emission
Inputs. EPA420–P–05–003, March 2005. https://
www.epa.gov/otaq/models/ngm/420p05003.pdf
(last accessed Feb 23, 2015).
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‘‘Greenhouse Gases, Regulated
Emissions, and Energy Use in
Transportation’’ (GREET) model. In
some cases, the GREET values were
modified or updated by the agencies to
be consistent with EPA’s National
Diesel savGasoline
Emissions Inventory (NEI), and
ings
savings
Diesel savGasoline
CY
(billion gal(billion gal- emission factors from MOVES. More
ings
savings
CY
lons)
lons)
information regarding these
(billion gal(billion gallons)
lons)
modifications can be found in Chapter
2025 ..................
3.1
0.3
2035 ..................
8.8
0.9 5 of the draft RIA. These estimates show
2025 ..................
2.5
0.2
12.3
1.1 the impacts for domestic emission
2035 ..................
8.5
0.8 2050 ..................
reductions only. Additionally, since this
2050 ..................
12.3
1.1
Note:
rulemaking is not expected to impact
a For an explanation of analytical Methods A
Note:
and B, please see Section I.D; for an expla- biofuel volumes mandated by the
a For an explanation of analytical Methods A
nation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and Annual Renewable Fuel Standards
and B, please see Section I.D; for an expla- more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Sec- (RFS) regulations 391, the impacts on
nation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and tion X.A.1.
upstream emissions from changes in
more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Secbiofuel feedstock (i.e., agricultural
(ii) Upstream (Fuel Production and
tion X.A.1.
sources such as fertilizer, fugitive dust,
Distribution) Emissions Projections
and livestock) are not shown. GHG
The upstream GHG emission
emission reductions from upstream
reductions associated with the
sources can be found in Table VII–32
production and distribution of gasoline
and Table VII–33 for preferred
and diesel from crude oil were based on alternative and Alternative 4,
emission factors from DOE’s
respectively.
TABLE VII–30—ANNUAL FUEL SAVINGS TABLE VII–31—ANNUAL FUEL SAVINGS
IN CALENDAR YEARS 2025, 2035
IN CALENDAR YEARS 2025, 2035
AND
2050—PREFERRED ALTERAND 2050—ALTERNATIVE 4 VS. ALT
NATIVE VS. ALT 1a USING ANALYSIS
1a USING ANALYSIS METHOD B a
METHOD B a
TABLE VII–32—ANNUAL UPSTREAM GHG EMISSIONS IMPACTS IN CALENDAR YEARS 2025, 2035 AND 2050—PREFERRED
ALTERNATIVE VS. ALT 1a USING ANALYSIS METHOD B a
CH4
(MMT
CO2eq)
CO2
(MMT)
CY
¥8.4
¥29.1
¥41.9
2025 .................................................................................................................................
2035 .................................................................................................................................
2050 .................................................................................................................................
¥0.9
¥3.0
¥4.4
N 2O
(MMT
CO2eq)
Total
uptream
(MMT
CO2eq)
¥0.04
¥0.14
¥0.20
¥9.3
¥32.2
¥46.5
Note:
a For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
TABLE VII–33—ANNUAL UPSTREAM GHG EMISSIONS IMPACTS IN CALENDAR YEARS 2025, 2035 AND 2050—
ALTERNATIVE 4 VS. ALT 1a USING ANALYSIS METHOD B a
CH4
(MMT
CO2eq)
CO2
(MMT)
CY
2025 .................................................................................................................................
2035 .................................................................................................................................
2050 .................................................................................................................................
¥10.4
¥30.1
¥42.0
¥1.0
¥3.2
¥4.4
N 2O
(MMT
CO2eq)
¥0.1
¥0.1
¥0.2
Total
uptream
(MMT
CO2eq)
¥11.5
¥33.4
¥46.6
Note:
a For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
ebenthall on DSK3VPTVN1PROD with MISCELLANEOUS
(iii) HFC Emissions Projections
Based on projected HFC emission
reductions due to the proposed AC
leakage standards, EPA estimates the
HFC reductions to be 93,272 metric tons
of CO2eq in 2025, 253,118 metric tons
of CO2eq in 2035, and 299,590 metric
tons CO2eq in 2050, as detailed in
Chapters 5.3.4 of the draft RIA. EPA
391 U.S. EPA. 2014 Standards for the Renewable
Fuel Standard Program. 40 CFR part 80. EPA–HQ–
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welcomes comments on the
methodology used to quantify the HFC
emissions benefits, as detailed in
Chapter 5 of the draft RIA.
(iv) Total (Downstream + Upstream +
HFC) Emissions Projections
Table VII–34 combines the impacts of
the preferred alternative from
downstream (Table VII–28), upstream
(Table VII–32), and HFC to summarize
the total GHG reductions in calendar
years 2025, 2035 and 2050, relative to
Alternative 1a. The combined impact of
Alternative 4 on total GHG emissions
are shown in Table VII–35.
Because of the differences in lead
time, as expected, Alternative 4 shows
greater annual GHG reductions in earlier
years (i.e., calendar year 2025), but by
OAR–2013–0479; FRL–9900–90–OAR, RIN 2060–
AR76.
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2050, the preferred alternative and
Alternative 4 show the same magnitude
of reductions in annual GHG emissions.
TABLE VII–34—ANNUAL TOTAL GHG EMISSIONS IMPACTS IN CALENDAR YEARS 2025, 2035 AND 2050—PREFERRED
ALTERNATIVE VS. ALT 1a USING ANALYSIS METHOD B a
2025
(MMT
CO2eq)
CY
Downstream .............................................................................................................................................
Upstream .................................................................................................................................................
HFC ..........................................................................................................................................................
Total ..................................................................................................................................................
¥27.4
¥9.3
¥0.1
¥36.8
2035
(MMT
CO2eq)
¥94.7
¥32.2
¥0.25
¥127.2
2050
(MMT
CO2eq)
¥136.5
¥46.5
¥0.3
¥183.3
Note:
a For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
TABLE VII–35—ANNUAL TOTAL GHG EMISSIONS IMPACTS IN CALENDAR YEARS 2025, 2035 AND 2050—ALTERNATIVE 4
VS. ALT 1a USING ANALYSIS METHOD B a
2025
(MMT
CO2eq)
CY
Downstream .............................................................................................................................................
Upstream .................................................................................................................................................
HFC ..........................................................................................................................................................
Total ..................................................................................................................................................
¥33.7
¥11.5
¥0.1
¥45.3
2035
(MMT
CO2eq)
¥98.3
¥33.4
¥0.25
¥132.0
2050
(MMT
CO2eq)
¥136.9
¥46.6
¥0.3
¥183.8
Note:
a For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
(b) Model Year Lifetime Analysis
In addition to the annual GHG
emissions and fuel consumption
reductions expected from the proposed
rules and Alternative 4, the combined
(downstream and upstream) GHG and
fuel consumption impacts for the
lifetime of the impacted vehicles were
estimated. Table VII–36 shows the fleetwide GHG reductions and fuel savings
from the preferred alternative and
Alternative 4, relative to Alternative 1a,
through the lifetime 392 of heavy-duty
vehicles. Compared to the preferred
alternative, Alternative 4 shows greater
lifetime GHG reductions and fuels
savings by 12 percent and 13 percent,
respectively. For the lifetime GHG
reductions and fuel savings by vehicle
categories, see Chapter 5 of the draft
RIA.
TABLE VII–36—LIFETIME GHG REDUCTIONS AND FUEL SAVINGS USING ANALYSIS METHOD B—SUMMARY FOR MODEL
YEARS 2018–2029 a
Model years
Alternative 3
(proposed)
Alternative 4
No-action
alternative
(baseline)
1a
(less dynamic)
1a
(less dynamic)
Fuel Savings (Billion Gallons) .........................................................................................................................................
Total GHG Reductions (MMT CO2eq) .....................................................................................................................
Downstream (MMT CO2eq) ...............................................................................................................................
Upstream (MMT CO2eq) ...................................................................................................................................
75.8
1,036.4
772.6
263.8
85.4
1,163.1
867.3
295.8
Note:
a For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
ebenthall on DSK3VPTVN1PROD with MISCELLANEOUS
D. Climate Impacts and Indicators
(1) Climate Change Impacts From GHG
Emissions
The impact of GHG emissions on the
climate has been reviewed in the 2009
Endangerment and Cause or Contribute
Findings for Greenhouse Gases under
Section 202(a) of the Clean Air Act, the
392 A
2012–2016 light-duty vehicle
rulemaking, the 2014–2018 heavy-duty
vehicle GHG and Fuel Efficiency
rulemaking, and the 2017–2025 lightduty vehicle rulemaking, and the
proposed standards for new electricity
utility generating units. See 74 FR
66496; 75 FR 25491; 76 FR 57294; 77 FR
62894; 79 FR 1456–1459 (January 8,
2014). This section briefly discusses
again some of the climate impact of
EPA’s proposed actions in context of
transportation emissions. NHTSA has
analyzed the climate impacts of its
specific proposed actions (i.e.,
excluding EPA’s HFC regulatory
provisions) as well as reasonable
alternative in its DEIS that accompanies
lifetime of 30 years is assumed in MOVES.
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ebenthall on DSK3VPTVN1PROD with MISCELLANEOUS
this proposed rule. DOT has considered
the potential climate impacts
documented in the DEIS as part of the
rulemaking process.
Once emitted, GHGs that are the
subject of this proposed regulation can
remain in the atmosphere for decades to
millennia, meaning that (1) their
concentrations become well-mixed
throughout the global atmosphere
regardless of emission origin, and (2)
their effects on climate are long lasting.
GHG emissions come mainly from the
combustion of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and
gas), with additional contributions from
the clearing of forests, agricultural
activities, cement production, and some
industrial activities. Transportation
activities, in aggregate, were the second
largest contributor to total U.S. GHG
emissions in 2010 (27 percent of total
emissions).393
The EPA Administrator relied on
thorough and peer-reviewed
assessments of climate change science
prepared by the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (‘‘IPCC’’), the
United States Global Change Research
Program (‘‘USGCRP’’), and the National
Research Council of the National
Academies (‘‘NRC’’) 394 as the primary
scientific and technical basis for the
Endangerment and Cause or Contribute
Findings for Greenhouse Gases Under
Section 202(a) of the Clean Air Act (74
FR 66496, December 15, 2009). These
assessments comprehensively address
the scientific issues the EPA
Administrator had to examine,
providing her data and information on
a wide range of issues pertinent to the
Endangerment Finding. These
assessments have been rigorously
reviewed by the expert community, and
also by United States government
agencies and scientists, including by
EPA itself.
Based on these assessments, the EPA
Administrator determined that the
emissions from new motor vehicles and
engines contributes to elevated
concentrations of greenhouse gases, that
these greenhouse gases cause warming;
that the recent warming has been
attributed to the increase in greenhouse
gases; and that warming of the climate
endangers the public health and welfare
of current and future generations. See
Coalition for Responsible Regulation v.
393 U.S. EPA (2012) Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse
Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990–2010. EPA 430–R–
12–001. Available at https://epa.gov/climatechange/
emissions/downloads12/US-GHG-Inventory-2012Main-Text.pdf.
394 For a complete list of core references from
IPCC, USGCRP/CCSP, NRC and others relied upon
for development of the TSD for EPA’s
Endangerment and Cause or Contribute Findings
see section 1(b), specifically, Table 1.1 of the TSD.
(Docket EPA–HQ–OAR–2010–0799)
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EPA, 684 F. 3d 102, 121 (D.C. Cir. 2012)
(upholding all of EPA’s findings and
stating ‘‘EPA had before it substantial
record evidence that anthropogenic
emissions of greenhouse gases ‘very
likely’ caused warming of the climate
over the last several decades. EPA
further had evidence of current and
future effects of this warming on public
health and welfare. Relying again upon
substantial scientific evidence, EPA
determined that anthropogenically
induced climate change threatens both
public health and public welfare. It
found that extreme weather events,
changes in air quality, increases in foodand water-borne pathogens, and
increases in temperatures are likely to
have adverse health effects. The record
also supports EPA’s conclusion that
climate change endangers human
welfare by creating risk to food
production and agriculture, forestry,
energy, infrastructure, ecosystems, and
wildlife. Substantial evidence further
supported EPA’s conclusion that the
warming resulting from the greenhouse
gas emissions could be expected to
create risks to water resources and in
general to coastal areas as a result of
expected increase in sea level.’’)
A number of major peer-reviewed
scientific assessments have been
released since the administrative record
concerning the Endangerment Finding
closed following EPA’s 2010
Reconsideration Denial.395 These
assessments include the ‘‘Special Report
on Managing the Risks of Extreme
Events and Disasters to Advance
Climate Change Adaptation’’ 396, the
2013–14 Fifth Assessment Report
(AR5),397 the 2014 National Climate
395 ‘‘EPA’s Denial of the Petitions to Reconsider
the Endangerment and Cause or Contribute
Findings for Greenhouse Gases under Section
202(a) of the Clean Air Act’’, 75 FR 49,556 (Aug.
13, 2010) (‘‘Reconsideration Denial’’).
396 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC). 2012: Managing the Risks of Extreme Events
and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaption.
A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and
New York, NY, USA.
397 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC). 2013. Climate Change 2013: The Physical
Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to
the Fifth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United
Kingdom and New York, NY, USA,
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
2014. Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation,
and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group
II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United
Kingdom and New York, NY, USA,
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
2014. Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate
Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the
Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental
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Assessment report,398 the ‘‘Ocean
Acidification: A National Strategy to
Meet the Challenges of a Changing
Ocean,’’ 399 ‘‘Report on Climate
Stabilization Targets: Emissions,
Concentrations, and Impacts over
Decades to Millennia,’’ 400 ‘‘National
Security Implications for U.S. Naval
Forces’’ (National Security
Implications),401 ‘‘Understanding
Earth’s Deep Past: Lessons for Our
Climate Future,’’ 402 ‘‘Sea Level Rise for
the Coasts of California, Oregon, and
Washington: Past, Present, and
Future,’’ 403 ‘‘Climate and Social Stress:
Implications for Security Analysis,’’ 404
and ‘‘Abrupt Impacts of Climate
Change’’ (Abrupt Impacts)
assessments.405
EPA has reviewed these assessments
and finds that in general, the improved
understanding of the climate system
they present are consistent with the
assessments underlying the 2009
Endangerment Finding.
The most recent assessments released
were the IPCC AR5 assessments
between September 2013 and April
2014, the NRC Abrupt Impacts
assessment in December of 2013, and
the U.S. National Climate Assessment in
May of 2014. The NRC Abrupt Impacts
report examines the potential for tipping
points, thresholds beyond which major
and rapid changes occur in the Earth’s
climate system or other systems
impacted by the climate. The Abrupt
Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University
Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York,
NY, USA.
398 Melillo, Jerry M., Terese (T.C.) Richmond, and
Gary W. Yohe, Eds. 2014. Climate Change Impacts
in the United States: The Third National Climate
Assessment. U.S. Global Change Research Program.
Available at https://nca2014.globalchange.gov.
399 National Research Council (NRC). 2010. Ocean
Acidification: A National Strategy to Meet the
Challenges of a Changing Ocean. National
Academies Press. Washington, DC.
400 National Research Council (NRC). 2011.
Climate Stabilization Targets: Emissions,
Concentrations, and Impacts over Decades to
Millennia. National Academies Press, Washington,
DC.
401 National Research Council (NRC) 2011.
National Security Implications of Climate Change
for U.S. Naval Forces. National Academies Press.
Washington, DC.
402 National Research Council (NRC). 2012. SeaLevel Rise for the Coasts of California, Oregon, and
Washington: Past, Present, and Future. National
Academies Press. Washington, DC.
403 National Research Council (NRC). 2012. SeaLevel Rise for the Coasts of California, Oregon, and
Washington: Past, Present, and Future. National
Academies Press. Washington, DC.
404 National Research Council (NRC). 2013.
Climate and Social Stress: Implications for Security
Analysis. National Academies Press. Washington,
DC.
405 National Research Council (NRC). 2013.
Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change: Anticipating
Surprises. National Academies Press. Washington,
DC.
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Impacts report did find less cause for
concern than some previous
assessments regarding some abrupt
events within the next century such as
disruption of the Atlantic Meridional
Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and
sudden releases of high-latitude
methane from hydrates and permafrost,
but found that the potential for abrupt
changes in ecosystems, weather and
climate extremes, and groundwater
supplies critical for agriculture now
seem more likely, severe, and imminent.
The assessment found that some abrupt
changes were already underway (Arctic
sea ice retreat and increases in
extinction risk due to the speed of
climate change), but cautioned that even
abrupt changes such as the AMOC
disruption that are not expected in this
century can have severe impacts when
they happen.
The IPCC AR5 assessments are also
generally consistent with the underlying
science supporting the 2009
Endangerment Finding. For example,
confidence in attributing recent
warming to human causes has
increased: The IPCC stated that it is
extremely likely (>95 percent
confidence) that human influences have
been the dominant cause of recent
warming. Moreover, the IPCC found that
the last 30 years were likely (>66
percent confidence) the warmest 30 year
period in the Northern Hemisphere of
the past 1400 years, that the rate of ice
loss of worldwide glaciers and the
Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets has
likely increased, that there is medium
confidence that the recent summer sea
ice retreat in the Arctic is larger than it
has been in 1450 years, and that
concentrations of carbon dioxide and
several other of the major greenhouse
gases are higher than they have been in
at least 800,000 years. Climate-change
induced impacts have been observed in
changing precipitation patterns, melting
snow and ice, species migration,
negative impacts on crops, increased
heat and decreased cold mortality, and
altered ranges for water-borne illnesses
and disease vectors. Additional risks
from future changes include death,
injury, and disrupted livelihoods in
coastal zones and regions vulnerable to
inland flooding, food insecurity linked
to warming, drought, and flooding,
especially for poor populations, reduced
access to drinking and irrigation water
for those with minimal capital in semiarid regions, and decreased biodiversity
in marine ecosystems, especially in the
Arctic and tropics, with implications for
coastal livelihoods. The IPCC
determined that ‘‘[c]ontinued emissions
of greenhouse gases will cause further
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warming and changes in all components
of the climate system. Limiting climate
change will require substantial and
sustained reductions of greenhouse
gases emissions.’’
Finally, the recently released National
Climate Assessment stated, ‘‘Climate
change is already affecting the American
people in far reaching ways. Certain
types of extreme weather events with
links to climate change have become
more frequent and/or intense, including
prolonged periods of heat, heavy
downpours, and, in some regions, floods
and droughts. In addition, warming is
causing sea level to rise and glaciers and
Arctic sea ice to melt, and oceans are
becoming more acidic as they absorb
carbon dioxide. These and other aspects
of climate change are disrupting
people’s lives and damaging some
sectors of our economy.’’
Assessments from these bodies
represent the current state of
knowledge, comprehensively cover and
synthesize thousands of individual
studies to obtain the majority
conclusions from the body of scientific
literature and undergo a rigorous and
exacting standard of review by the peer
expert community and U.S. government.
Based on modeling analysis
performed by the agencies, reductions
in CO2 and other GHG emissions
associated with these proposed rules
will affect future climate change. Since
GHGs are well-mixed in the atmosphere
and have long atmospheric lifetimes,
changes in GHG emissions will affect
atmospheric concentrations of
greenhouse gases and future climate for
decades to millennia, depending on the
gas. This section provides estimates of
the projected change in atmospheric
CO2 concentrations based on the
emission reductions estimated for these
proposed rules, compared to the
reference case. In addition, this section
analyzes the response to the changes in
GHG concentrations of the following
climate-related variables: Global mean
temperature, sea level rise, and ocean
pH.
(2) Projected Change in Atmospheric
CO2 Concentrations, Global Mean
Surface Temperature and Sea Level Rise
To assess the impact of the emissions
reductions from the proposed rules,
EPA estimated changes in projected
atmospheric CO2 concentrations, global
mean surface temperature and sea-level
rise to 2100 using the GCAM (Global
Change Assessment Model, formerly
MiniCAM), integrated assessment
model 406 coupled with the MAGICC
406 GCAM is a long-term, global integrated
assessment model of energy, economy, agriculture
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(Model for the Assessment of
Greenhouse-gas Induced Climate
Change) simple climate model.407
GCAM was used to create the globally
and temporally consistent set of climate
relevant emissions required for running
MAGICC. MAGICC was then used to
estimate the projected change in
relevant climate variables over time.
Given the magnitude of the estimated
emissions reductions associated with
these rules, a simple climate model such
as MAGICC is appropriate for estimating
the atmospheric and climate response.
The analysis projects that the
proposed rules would reduce
atmospheric concentrations of CO2,
global climate warming, ocean
acidification, and sea level rise relative
to the reference case. Although the
projected reductions and improvements
are small in comparison to the total
projected climate change, they are
quantifiable, directionally consistent,
and will contribute to reducing the risks
associated with climate change. Climate
change is a global phenomenon and
EPA recognizes that this one national
action alone will not prevent it; EPA
notes this would be true for any given
GHG mitigation action when taken
alone or when considered in isolation.
EPA also notes that a substantial portion
of CO2 emitted into the atmosphere is
not removed by natural processes for
millennia, and therefore each unit of
CO2 not emitted into the atmosphere
due to this rules avoids essentially
permanent climate change on centennial
time scales.
EPA determines that the projected
reductions in atmospheric CO2, global
mean temperature, sea level rise, and
ocean pH are meaningful in the context
of this action. The results of the
analysis, summarized in Table VII–37,
demonstrate that relative to the
and land use that considers the sources of
emissions of a suite of greenhouse gases (GHG’s),
emitted in 14 globally disaggregated regions, the
fate of emissions to the atmosphere, and the
consequences of changing concentrations of
greenhouse related gases for climate change. GCAM
begins with a representation of demographic and
economic developments in each region and
combines these with assumptions about technology
development to describe an internally consistent
representation of energy, agriculture, land-use, and
economic developments that in turn shape global
emissions.
407 MAGICC consists of a suite of coupled gascycle, climate and ice-melt models integrated into
a single framework. The framework allows the user
to determine changes in greenhouse-gas
concentrations, global-mean surface air temperature
and sea-level resulting from anthropogenic
emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4),
nitrous oxide (N2O), reactive gases (CO, NOX,
VOCs), the halocarbons (e.g. HCFCs, HFCs, PFCs)
and sulfur dioxide (SO2). MAGICC emulates the
global-mean temperature responses of more
sophisticated coupled Atmosphere/Ocean General
Circulation Models (AOGCMs) with high accuracy.
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reference case, by 2100 projected
atmospheric CO2 concentrations are
estimated to be reduced by 1.1 to 1.2
part per million by volume (ppmv),
global mean temperature is estimated to
be reduced by 0.0026 to 0.0065 °C, and
sea-level rise is projected to be reduced
by approximately 0.023 to 0.057 cm,
based on a range of climate sensitivities
(described below). Details about this
modeling analysis can be found in the
draft RIA Chapter 6.3.
TABLE VII–37—IMPACT OF GHG EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS ON PROJECTED CHANGES IN GLOBAL CLIMATE ASSOCIATED
WITH PROPOSED PHASE 2 STANDARDS FOR MY 2018–2024
[Based on a range of climate sensitivities from 1.5–6 °C]
Variable
Units
Year
Atmospheric CO2 CONCENTRATION ....................
Global Mean Surface Temperature ........................
Sea Level Rise ........................................................
Ocean pH ................................................................
ppmv .......................................................................
°C ...........................................................................
cm ...........................................................................
pH units ..................................................................
Projected change
2100
2100
2100
2100
¥1.1 to ¥1.2
¥0.0026 to ¥0.0065
¥0.023 to ¥0.057
+0.0006 a
ebenthall on DSK3VPTVN1PROD with MISCELLANEOUS
Note:
a The value for projected change in ocean pH is based on a climate sensitivity of 3.0.
The projected reductions are small
relative to the change in temperature
(1.8–4.8 °C), CO2 concentration (404 to
470 ppm), sea level rise (23–56 cm), and
ocean acidity (¥0.30 pH units) from
1990 to 2100 from the MAGICC
simulations for the GCAM reference
case. However, this is to be expected
given the magnitude of emissions
reductions expected from the program
in the context of global emissions.
Moreover, these effects are occurring
everywhere around the globe, so
benefits that appear to be marginal for
any one location, such as a reduction in
seal level rise of half a millimeter, can
be sizable when the effects are summed
along thousands of miles of coastline.
This uncertainty range does not include
the effects of uncertainty in future
emissions. It should also be noted that
the calculations in MAGICC do not
include the possible effects of
accelerated ice flow in Greenland and/
or Antarctica: Estimates of sea level rise
from the recent NRC, IPCC, and NCA
assessments range from 26 cm to 2
meters depending on the emissions
scenario, the processes included, and
the likelihood range assessed; inclusion
of these effects would lead to
correspondingly larger benefits of
mitigation. Further discussion of EPA’s
modeling analysis is found in the RIA,
Chapter 6.3.
Based on the projected atmospheric
CO2 concentration reductions resulting
from these proposed rules, EPA
calculates an increase in ocean pH of
0.0006 pH units in 2100 relative to the
baseline case (this is a reduction in the
expected acidification of the ocean of a
decrease of 0.3 pH units from 1990 to
2100 in the baseline case). Thus, this
analysis indicates the projected decrease
in atmospheric CO2 concentrations from
the proposed Phase 2 standards would
result in an increase in ocean pH (i.e.,
a reduction in the expected acidification
of the ocean in the reference case). A
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more detailed discussion of the
modeling analysis associated with ocean
pH is provided in the draft RIA, Chapter
6.3.
The 2011 NRC assessment on
‘‘Climate Stabilization Targets:
Emissions, Concentrations, and Impacts
over Decades to Millennia’’ determined
how a number of climate impacts—such
as heaviest daily rainfalls, crop yields,
and Arctic sea ice extent—would
change with a temperature change of 1
degree Celsius (C) of warming. These
relationships of impacts with
temperature change could be combined
with the calculated reductions in
warming in Table VII–37 to estimate
changes in these impacts associated
with this proposed rulemaking.
As a substantial portion of CO2
emitted into the atmosphere is not
removed by natural processes for
millennia, each unit of CO2 not emitted
into the atmosphere avoids some degree
of effectively permanent climate change.
Therefore, reductions in emissions in
the near-term are important in
determining climate impacts
experienced not just over the next
decades but over thousands of years.408
Though the magnitude of the avoided
climate change projected here in
isolation is small in comparison to the
total projected changes, these reductions
represent a reduction in the adverse
risks associated with climate change
(though these risks were not formally
estimated for this action) across a range
of equilibrium climate sensitivities.
EPA’s analysis of this proposed rule’s
impact on global climate conditions is
intended to quantify these potential
reductions using the best available
science. EPA’s modeling results show
consistent reductions relative to the
408 National Research Council (NRC) (2011).
Climate Stabilization Targets: Emissions,
Concentrations, and Impacts over Decades to
Millennia. National Academy Press. Washington,
DC. (Docket EPA–HQ–OAR–2010–0799)
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Frm 00273
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baseline case in changes of CO2
concentration, temperature, sea-level
rise, and ocean pH over the next
century.
VIII. How will this proposed action
impact non-GHG emissions and their
associated effects?
The proposed heavy-duty vehicle
standards are expected to influence the
emissions of criteria air pollutants and
several air toxics. This section describes
the projected impacts of the proposed
rules and Alternative 4 on non-GHG
emissions and air quality, and the
health and environmental effects
associated with these pollutants.
NHTSA further analyzes these projected
health and environmental effects
resulting from its proposed rules and
reasonable alternatives in Chapter 4 of
its DEIS.
A. Emissions Inventory Impacts
As described in Section VII, the
agencies conducted coordinated and
complementary analyses for these rules
by employing both DOT’s CAFE model
and EPA’s MOVES model, relative to
different reference cases (i.e., different
baselines). The agencies used EPA’s
MOVES model to estimate the non-GHG
impacts for tractor-trailers (including
the engine that powers the vehicle), and
vocational vehicles (including the
engine that powers the vehicle). For
heavy-duty pickups and vans, the
agencies performed complementary
analyses using the CAFE model
(‘‘Method A’’) and the MOVES model
(‘‘Method B’’) to estimate non-GHG
emissions from these vehicles. For both
methods, the agencies analyzed the
impact of the proposed rules, relative to
two different reference cases—less
dynamic and more dynamic. The less
dynamic baseline projects very little
improvement in new vehicles in the
absence of new Phase 2 standards. In
contrast, the more dynamic baseline
E:\FR\FM\13JYP2.SGM
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projects more improvements in vehicle
fuel efficiency. The agencies considered
both reference cases. The results for all
of the regulatory alternatives relative to
both reference cases, derived via the
same methodologies discussed in
Section VII of the Preamble, are
presented in Section X of the Preamble.
For brevity, a subset of these analyses
are presented in this section and the
reader is referred to both the RIA
Chapter 11 and NHTSA’s DEIS Chapters
3 and 5 for complete sets of these
analyses. In this section, Method A is
presented for both the proposed
standards (i.e., Alternative 3—the
agencies’ preferred alternative) and for
the standards the agencies considered in
Alternative 4, relative to both the more
dynamic baseline (Alternative 1b) and
the less dynamic baseline (Alternative
1a). Method B is presented also for the
proposed standards and Alternative 4,
but relative only to the less dynamic
baseline. The agencies’ intention for
presenting both of these complementary
and coordinated analyses is to offer
interested readers the opportunity to
compare the regulatory alternatives
considered for Phase 2 in both the
context of our HD Phase 1 analytical
approaches and our light-duty vehicle
analytical approaches. The agencies
view these analyses as corroborative and
reinforcing: Both support agencies’
conclusion that the proposed standards
are appropriate and at the maximum
feasible levels.
The following subsections summarize
two slightly different analyses of the
annual non-GHG emissions reductions
expected from the proposed standards
and Alternative 4. Section VIII. A. (1)
presents the impacts of the proposed
rules and Alternative 4 on non-GHG
emissions using the analytical Method
A, relative to two different reference
cases—less dynamic and more dynamic.
Section VIII. A. (2) presents the impacts
of the proposed standards and
Alternative 4, relative to the less
dynamic reference case only, using the
MOVES model for all heavy-duty
vehicle categories.
(1) Impacts of the Proposed Rules and
Alternative 4 Using Analysis Method A
(a) Calendar Year Analysis
(i) Upstream Impacts of the Proposed
Program and Alternative 4
Increasing efficiency in heavy-duty
vehicles would result in reduced fuel
demand, and therefore, reductions in
the emissions associated with all
processes involved in getting petroleum
to the pump. Both Method A and
Method B project these impacts for fuel
consumed by vocational vehicles and
combination tractor-trailers, using the
same methods. See Section VIII.A.(2)
(a)(i) for the description of this
methodology. To project these impacts
for fuel consumed by HD pickups and
vans, Method A used similar
calculations and inputs applicable to
the CAFE model, as discussed above in
Section VI. More information on the
development of the emission factors
used in this analysis can be found in
Chapter 5 of the draft RIA.
The following four tables summarize
the projected upstream emission
impacts of the preferred alternative and
Alternative 4 on both criteria pollutants
and air toxics from the heavy-duty
sector, relative to Alternative 1b (more
dynamic baseline conditions under the
No-Action Alternative) and Alternative
1a (less dynamic baseline conditions
under the No-Action Alternative).
TABLE VIII–1—ANNUAL UPSTREAM IMPACTS ON CRITERIA POLLUTANTS AND AIR TOXICS FROM HEAVY-DUTY SECTOR IN
CALENDAR YEARS 2025, 2035 AND 2050—PREFERRED ALTERNATIVE VS. ALT 1b USING ANALYSIS METHOD A a
CY2025
Pollutant
US short
tons
%
Reduction
¥1
¥3
0
¥21
¥3,798
¥19
¥9,472
¥1,019
¥5,983
¥3,066
1,3-Butadiene ...................................................................
Acetaldehyde ...................................................................
Acrolein ............................................................................
Benzene ...........................................................................
CO ....................................................................................
Formaldehyde ..................................................................
NOX ..................................................................................
PM2.5 ................................................................................
SOX ..................................................................................
VOC .................................................................................
CY2035
¥5
¥3
¥4
¥4
¥5
¥5
¥5
¥5
¥5
¥4
US short
tons
CY2050
%
Reduction
¥3
¥10
¥1
¥74
¥12,087
¥59
¥30,333
¥3,257
¥19,190
¥11,029
¥14
¥11
¥12
¥13
¥14
¥14
¥14
¥14
¥14
¥13
US short
tons
%
Reduction
¥5
¥15
¥2
¥104
¥17,120
¥84
¥42,839
¥4,609
¥27,074
¥15,386
¥17
¥13
¥15
¥15
¥17
¥17
¥17
¥17
¥17
¥15
Note:
a For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
TABLE VIII–2—ANNUAL UPSTREAM IMPACTS ON CRITERIA POLLUTANTS AND AIR TOXICS FROM HEAVY-DUTY SECTOR IN
CALENDAR YEARS 2025, 2035 AND 2050—ALTERNATIVE 4 VS. ALT 1b USING ANALYSIS METHOD A a
CY2025
ebenthall on DSK3VPTVN1PROD with MISCELLANEOUS
Pollutant
US short
tons
1,3-Butadiene ...................................................................
Acetaldehyde ...................................................................
Acrolein ............................................................................
Benzene ...........................................................................
CO ....................................................................................
Formaldehyde ..................................................................
NOX ..................................................................................
PM2.5 ................................................................................
SOX ..................................................................................
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06:45 Jul 11, 2015
Jkt 235001
PO 00000
Frm 00274
%
Reduction
¥1
¥4
¥1
¥28
¥4,679
¥23
¥11,708
¥1,259
¥7,402
Fmt 4701
CY2035
¥6
¥5
¥5
¥5
¥6
¥6
¥6
¥6
¥6
Sfmt 4702
US short
tons
¥3
¥11
¥1
¥78
¥12,640
¥62
¥31,769
¥3,408
¥20,107
E:\FR\FM\13JYP2.SGM
CY2050
%
Reduction
¥15
¥12
¥13
¥13
¥15
¥15
¥15
¥15
¥15
13JYP2
US short
tons
¥5
¥15
¥2
¥105
¥17,263
¥85
¥43,263
¥4,649
¥27,356
%
Reduction
¥17
¥14
¥15
¥16
¥17
¥17
¥17
¥17
¥17
40411
Federal Register / Vol. 80, No. 133 / Monday, July 13, 2015 / Proposed Rules
TABLE VIII–2—ANNUAL UPSTREAM IMPACTS ON CRITERIA POLLUTANTS AND AIR TOXICS FROM HEAVY-DUTY SECTOR IN
CALENDAR YEARS 2025, 2035 AND 2050—ALTERNATIVE 4 VS. ALT 1b USING ANALYSIS METHOD A a—Continued
CY2025
Pollutant
US short
tons
%
Reduction
¥4,081
VOC .................................................................................
CY2035
¥5
US short
tons
CY2050
%
Reduction
¥11,717
¥13
US short
tons
%
Reduction
¥15,645
¥15
Note:
a For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
TABLE VIII–3—ANNUAL UPSTREAM IMPACTS ON CRITERIA POLLUTANTS AND AIR TOXICS FROM HEAVY-DUTY SECTOR IN
CALENDAR YEARS 2025, 2035 AND 2050—PREFERRED ALTERNATIVE VS. ALT 1a USING ANALYSIS METHOD A a
CY2025
Pollutant
US short
tons
%
Reduction
¥1
¥3
0
¥22
¥3,911
¥19
¥9,787
¥1,051
¥6,189
¥3,193
1,3-Butadiene ...................................................................
Acetaldehyde ...................................................................
Acrolein ............................................................................
Benzene ...........................................................................
CO ....................................................................................
Formaldehyde ..................................................................
NOX ..................................................................................
PM2.5 ................................................................................
SOX ..................................................................................
VOC .................................................................................
CY2035
¥5
¥3
¥4
¥4
¥5
¥5
¥5
¥5
¥5
¥4
US short
tons
CY2050
%
Reduction
¥4
¥11
¥1
¥80
¥13,153
¥65
¥33,021
¥3,545
¥20,896
¥11,848
¥15
¥12
¥13
¥14
¥15
¥15
¥15
¥15
¥15
¥13
US short
tons
%
Reduction
¥5
¥16
¥2
¥113
¥18,794
¥92
¥47,028
¥5,058
¥29,726
¥16,625
¥18
¥14
¥15
¥16
¥18
¥18
¥18
¥18
¥18
¥16
Note:
a For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
TABLE VIII–4—ANNUAL UPSTREAM IMPACTS ON CRITERIA POLLUTANTS AND AIR TOXICS FROM HEAVY-DUTY SECTOR IN
CALENDAR YEARS 2025, 2035 AND 2050—ALTERNATIVE 4 VS. ALT 1a USING ANALYSIS METHOD A a
CY2025
Pollutant
US short
tons
1,3-Butadiene ...................................................................
Acetaldehyde ...................................................................
Acrolein ............................................................................
Benzene ...........................................................................
CO ....................................................................................
Formaldehyde ..................................................................
NOX ..................................................................................
PM2.5 ................................................................................
SOX ..................................................................................
VOC .................................................................................
CY2035
%
Reduction
¥1
¥4
¥1
¥29
¥4,816
¥24
¥12,098
¥1,298
¥7,658
¥4,251
¥6
¥5
¥5
¥5
¥6
¥6
¥6
¥6
¥6
¥5
US short
tons
¥4
¥12
¥1
¥84
¥13,720
¥67
¥34,501
¥3,700
¥21,843
¥12,541
CY2050
%
Reduction
¥16
¥12
¥13
¥14
¥16
¥16
¥16
¥16
¥16
¥14
US short
tons
¥5
¥16
¥2
¥114
¥18,945
¥93
¥47,477
¥5,101
¥30,024
¥16,870
%
Reduction
¥18
¥14
¥16
¥17
¥18
¥18
¥18
¥18
¥18
¥16
Note:
a For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
ebenthall on DSK3VPTVN1PROD with MISCELLANEOUS
(ii) Downstream Impacts of the
Proposed Program and Alternative 4
For vocational vehicles and tractortrailers, the agencies used the MOVES
model to determine non-GHG emissions
inventories. The improvements in
engine efficiency and road load, the
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06:45 Jul 11, 2015
Jkt 235001
increased use of APUs, and VMT
rebound were included in the MOVES
analysis. For the analysis presented in
this section, the DOT CAFE model was
used for HD pickups and vans. Further
information about DOT’s CAFE model is
available in Section VI.C and Chapter 10
PO 00000
Frm 00275
Fmt 4701
Sfmt 4702
of the draft RIA. The following four
tables summarize the projected
downstream emission impacts of the
preferred alternative and Alternative 4
on both criteria pollutants and air toxics
from the heavy-duty sector, relative to
Alternative 1b and Alternative 1a.
E:\FR\FM\13JYP2.SGM
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Federal Register / Vol. 80, No. 133 / Monday, July 13, 2015 / Proposed Rules
TABLE VIII–5—ANNUAL DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS ON CRITERIA POLLUTANTS AND AIR TOXICS FROM HEAVY-DUTY SECTOR
IN CALENDAR YEARS 2025, 2035 AND 2050—PREFERRED ALTERNATIVE VS. ALT 1b USING ANALYSIS METHOD A a
CY2025
Pollutant
US short
tons
%
Reduction
¥8
¥669
¥97
¥123
¥26,485
¥2,100
¥92,444
643
¥229
¥13,161
1,3-Butadiene ...................................................................
Acetaldehyde ...................................................................
Acrolein ............................................................................
Benzene ...........................................................................
CO ....................................................................................
Formaldehyde ..................................................................
NOX ..................................................................................
PM2.5 b ..............................................................................
SOX ..................................................................................
VOC .................................................................................
CY2035
¥3
¥10
¥10
¥6
¥3
¥12
¥7
2
¥4
¥6
US short
tons
CY2050
%
Reduction
¥21
¥1,882
¥272
¥347
¥75,199
¥5,910
¥260,949
1,722
¥715
¥38,051
¥12
¥31
¥31
¥19
¥8
¥32
¥28
8
¥13
¥21
US short
tons
%
Reduction
¥30
¥2,667
¥385
¥490
¥106,756
¥8,376
¥370,663
2,410
¥1,026
¥54,139
¥16
¥36
¥37
¥24
¥9
¥37
¥34
10
¥15
¥26
Notes:
a For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
b Positive number means emissions would increase from reference to control case. PM
2.5 from tire wear and brake wear are included.
TABLE VIII–6—ANNUAL DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS ON CRITERIA POLLUTANTS AND AIR TOXICS FROM HEAVY-DUTY SECTOR
IN CALENDAR YEARS 2025, 2035 AND 2050—ALTERNATIVE 4 VS. ALT 1b USING ANALYSIS METHOD A a
CY2025
Pollutant
US short
tons
%
Reduction
¥8
¥669
¥97
¥124
¥26,705
¥2,100
¥93,984
619
¥280
¥13,925
1,3-Butadiene ...................................................................
Acetaldehyde ...................................................................
Acrolein ............................................................................
Benzene ...........................................................................
CO ....................................................................................
Formaldehyde ..................................................................
NOX ..................................................................................
PM2.5 b ..............................................................................
SOX ..................................................................................
VOC .................................................................................
CY2035
¥2
¥10
¥10
¥6
¥3
¥12
¥8
2
¥5
¥7
US short
tons
CY2050
%
Reduction
¥21
¥1,882
¥271
¥347
¥75,407
¥5,908
¥262,150
1,705
¥742
¥38,472
¥12
¥31
¥31
¥19
¥8
¥32
¥28
8
¥13
¥22
US short
tons
%
Reduction
¥30
¥2,667
¥385
¥490
¥106,874
¥8,375
¥370,704
2,412
¥1,029
¥54,150
¥16
¥36
¥37
¥24
¥9
¥37
¥34
10
¥15
¥26
Notes:
a For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
b Positive number means emissions would increase from reference to control case. PM
2.5 from tire wear and brake wear are included.
TABLE VIII–7—ANNUAL DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS ON CRITERIA POLLUTANTS AND AIR TOXICS FROM HEAVY-DUTY SECTOR
IN CALENDAR YEARS 2025, 2035 AND 2050—PREFERRED ALTERNATIVE VS. ALT 1a USING ANALYSIS METHOD A a
CY2025
ebenthall on DSK3VPTVN1PROD with MISCELLANEOUS
Pollutant
US short
tons
1,3-Butadiene ...................................................................
Acetaldehyde ...................................................................
Acrolein ............................................................................
Benzene ...........................................................................
CO ....................................................................................
Formaldehyde ..................................................................
NOX ..................................................................................
PM2.5 b ..............................................................................
SOX ..................................................................................
VOC .................................................................................
¥8
¥669
¥97
¥123
¥26,576
¥2,100
¥93,197
632
¥232
¥13,210
CY2035
%
Reduction
¥3
¥10
¥10
¥6
¥3
¥12
¥8
2
¥4
¥6
US short
tons
¥21
¥1,880
¥271
¥346
¥75,571
¥5,904
¥266,890
1,635
¥776
¥38,964
CY2050
%
Reduction
¥12
¥31
¥31
¥19
¥8
¥32
¥29
8
¥14
¥22
US short
tons
¥30
¥2,664
¥384
¥490
¥107,287
¥8,369
¥380,303
2,267
¥1,125
¥55,628
%
Reduction
¥16
¥36
¥37
¥24
¥9
¥37
¥35
9
¥16
¥26
Notes:
a For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
b Positive number means emissions would increase from reference to control case. PM
2.5 from tire wear and brake wear are included.
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06:45 Jul 11, 2015
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Fmt 4701
Sfmt 4702
E:\FR\FM\13JYP2.SGM
13JYP2
40413
Federal Register / Vol. 80, No. 133 / Monday, July 13, 2015 / Proposed Rules
TABLE VIII–8—ANNUAL DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS ON CRITERIA POLLUTANTS AND AIR TOXICS FROM HEAVY-DUTY SECTOR
IN CALENDAR YEARS 2025, 2035 AND 2050—ALTERNATIVE 4 VS. ALT 1a USING ANALYSIS METHOD A a
CY2025
Pollutant
US short
tons
%
Reduction
¥8
¥668
¥97
¥124
¥26,821
¥2,099
¥94,724
609
¥282
¥13,971
1,3-Butadiene ...................................................................
Acetaldehyde ...................................................................
Acrolein ............................................................................
Benzene ...........................................................................
CO ....................................................................................
Formaldehyde ..................................................................
NOX ..................................................................................
PM2.5 b ..............................................................................
SOX ..................................................................................
VOC .................................................................................
CY2035
¥2
¥10
¥10
¥6
¥3
¥12
¥8
2
¥5
¥7
US short
tons
CY2050
%
Reduction
¥21
¥1,880
¥271
¥346
¥75,795
¥5,902
¥268,075
1,618
¥803
¥39,383
¥12
¥31
¥31
¥19
¥8
¥32
¥29
8
¥14
¥22
US short
tons
%
Reduction
¥29
¥2,664
¥384
¥489
¥107,414
¥8,367
¥380,328
2,269
¥1,127
¥55,638
¥16
¥36
¥37
¥24
¥9
¥37
¥35
9
¥16
¥26
Notes:
a For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
b Positive number means emissions would increase from reference to control case. PM
2.5 from tire wear and brake wear are included.
(iii) Total Impacts of the Proposed
Program and Alternative 4
The following four tables summarize
the projected upstream emission
impacts of the preferred alternative and
Alternative 4 on both criteria pollutants
and air toxics from the heavy-duty
sector, relative to Alternative 1b and
Alternative 1a.
TABLE VIII–9—ANNUAL TOTAL IMPACTS (UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM) OF CRITERIA POLLUTANTS AND AIR TOXICS
FROM HEAVY-DUTY SECTOR IN CALENDAR YEARS 2025, 2035 AND 2050—PREFERRED ALTERNATIVE VS. ALT 1b
USING ANALYSIS METHOD A a
CY2025
Pollutant
US short
tons
1,3-Butadiene ...................................................................
Acetaldehyde ...................................................................
Acrolein ............................................................................
Benzene ...........................................................................
CO ....................................................................................
Formaldehyde ..................................................................
NOX ..................................................................................
PM2.5 ................................................................................
SOX ..................................................................................
VOC .................................................................................
CY2035
%
reduction
¥9
¥672
¥97
¥145
¥30,282
¥2,119
¥101,916
¥376
¥6,213
¥16,227
¥3
¥10
¥10
¥5
¥3
¥11
¥7
¥1
¥5
¥6
US short
tons
CY2050
%
reduction
¥25
¥1,893
¥273
¥421
¥87,286
¥5,969
¥291,282
¥1,535
¥19,905
¥49,080
¥13
¥30
¥31
¥18
¥8
¥32
¥26
¥3
¥14
¥18
US short
tons
%
reduction
¥34
¥2,682
¥387
¥595
¥123,876
¥8,460
¥413,501
¥2,199
¥28,101
¥69,525
¥16
¥36
¥37
¥22
¥10
¥37
¥31
¥4
¥17
¥22
Note:
a For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
TABLE VIII–10—ANNUAL TOTAL IMPACTS (UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM) OF CRITERIA POLLUTANTS AND AIR TOXICS
FROM HEAVY-DUTY SECTOR IN CALENDAR YEARS 2025, 2035 AND 2050—ALTERNATIVE 4 VS. ALT 1b USING ANALYSIS METHOD A a
CY2025
ebenthall on DSK3VPTVN1PROD with MISCELLANEOUS
Pollutant
US short
tons
1,3-Butadiene ...................................................................
Acetaldehyde ...................................................................
Acrolein ............................................................................
Benzene ...........................................................................
CO ....................................................................................
Formaldehyde ..................................................................
NOX ..................................................................................
PM2.5 ................................................................................
SOX ..................................................................................
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¥9
¥673
¥97
¥152
¥31,383
¥2,123
¥105,693
¥639
¥7,682
Frm 00277
Fmt 4701
CY2035
%
reduction
¥3
¥10
¥10
¥6
¥3
¥11
¥7
¥1
¥6
Sfmt 4702
US short
tons
¥25
¥1,893
¥273
¥426
¥88,047
¥5,970
¥293,918
¥1,703
¥20,849
E:\FR\FM\13JYP2.SGM
CY2050
%
reduction
¥13
¥30
¥31
¥18
¥8
¥32
¥26
¥4
¥15
13JYP2
US short
tons
¥34
¥2,682
¥387
¥595
¥124,137
¥8,460
¥413,967
¥2,237
¥28,385
%
reduction
¥16
¥36
¥37
¥22
¥10
¥37
¥31
¥4
¥17
40414
Federal Register / Vol. 80, No. 133 / Monday, July 13, 2015 / Proposed Rules
TABLE VIII–10—ANNUAL TOTAL IMPACTS (UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM) OF CRITERIA POLLUTANTS AND AIR TOXICS
FROM HEAVY-DUTY SECTOR IN CALENDAR YEARS 2025, 2035 AND 2050—ALTERNATIVE 4 VS. ALT 1b USING ANALYSIS METHOD A a—Continued
CY2025
Pollutant
US short
tons
CY2035
%
reduction
¥18,006
VOC .................................................................................
¥6
US short
tons
CY2050
%
reduction
¥50,189
US short
tons
¥19
%
reduction
¥69,796
¥22
Note:
a For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
TABLE VIII–11—ANNUAL TOTAL IMPACTS (UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM) OF CRITERIA POLLUTANTS AND AIR TOXICS
FROM HEAVY-DUTY SECTOR IN CALENDAR YEARS 2025, 2035 AND 2050—PREFERRED ALTERNATIVE VS. ALT 1a
USING ANALYSIS METHOD A a
CY2025
Pollutant
US short
tons
1,3-Butadiene ...................................................................
Acetaldehyde ...................................................................
Acrolein ............................................................................
Benzene ...........................................................................
CO ....................................................................................
Formaldehyde ..................................................................
NOX ..................................................................................
PM2.5 ................................................................................
SOX ..................................................................................
VOC .................................................................................
CY2035
%
reduction
¥9
¥672
¥97
¥145
¥30,487
¥2,119
¥102,983
¥419
¥6,421
¥16,403
¥3
¥10
¥10
¥5
¥3
¥11
¥7
¥1
¥5
¥6
US short
tons
CY2050
%
reduction
¥25
¥1,891
¥273
¥425
¥88,724
¥5,969
¥299,911
¥1,910
¥21,672
¥50,812
US short
tons
¥13
¥30
¥31
¥18
¥8
¥32
¥26
¥4
¥15
¥19
%
reduction
¥35
¥2,680
¥386
¥603
¥126,081
¥8,461
¥427,332
¥2,791
¥30,850
¥72,253
¥16
¥36
¥37
¥22
¥10
¥37
¥32
¥5
¥18
¥23
Note:
a For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
TABLE VIII–12—ANNUAL TOTAL IMPACTS (UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM) OF CRITERIA POLLUTANTS AND AIR TOXICS
FROM HEAVY-DUTY SECTOR IN CALENDAR YEARS 2025, 2035 AND 2050—ALTERNATIVE 4 VS. ALT 1a USING ANALYSIS METHOD A a
CY2025
Pollutant
US short
tons
1,3-Butadiene ...................................................................
Acetaldehyde ...................................................................
Acrolein ............................................................................
Benzene ...........................................................................
CO ....................................................................................
Formaldehyde ..................................................................
NOX ..................................................................................
PM2.5 ................................................................................
SOX ..................................................................................
VOC .................................................................................
CY2035
%
reduction
¥9
¥672
¥97
¥153
¥31,637
¥2,123
¥106,822
¥689
¥7,941
¥18,222
¥3
¥10
¥10
¥6
¥3
¥11
¥7
¥1
¥6
¥6
US short
tons
CY2050
%
reduction
¥25
¥1,891
¥273
¥430
¥89,514
¥5,969
¥302,575
¥2,082
¥22,646
¥51,924
US short
tons
¥13
¥30
¥31
¥18
¥8
¥32
¥26
¥5
¥16
¥19
%
reduction
¥35
¥2,679
¥386
¥603
¥126,360
¥8,460
¥427,805
¥2,833
¥31,151
¥72,509
¥16
¥36
¥37
¥22
¥10
¥37
¥32
¥5
¥18
¥23
Note:
a For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
ebenthall on DSK3VPTVN1PROD with MISCELLANEOUS
(b) Model Year Lifetime Analysis
TABLE VIII–13—LIFETIME NON-GHG REDUCTIONS USING ANALYSIS METHOD A—SUMMARY FOR MODEL YEARS 2018–
2029 (US SHORT TONS) a
Alternative 3 (proposed)
No-action alternative (baseline)
1b
(more dynamic)
NOX ..................................................................................................
Downstream ..............................................................................
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2,359,548
2,103,163
Sfmt 4702
Alternative 4
1a
(less dynamic)
1b
(more dynamic)
2,409,738
2,137,232
E:\FR\FM\13JYP2.SGM
13JYP2
2,420,931
2,130,659
1a
(less dynamic)
2,472,021
2,164,458
40415
Federal Register / Vol. 80, No. 133 / Monday, July 13, 2015 / Proposed Rules
TABLE VIII–13—LIFETIME NON-GHG REDUCTIONS USING ANALYSIS METHOD A—SUMMARY FOR MODEL YEARS 2018–
2029 (US SHORT TONS) a—Continued
Alternative 3 (proposed)
No-action alternative (baseline)
1b
(more dynamic)
Upstream ..................................................................................
PM2.5 ................................................................................................
Downstream b ............................................................................
Upstream ..................................................................................
SOX ..................................................................................................
Downstream ..............................................................................
Upstream ..................................................................................
Alternative 4
1a
(less dynamic)
256,385
13,496
¥14,051
27,547
167,415
5,326
162,089
1b
(more dynamic)
272,506
15,706
¥13,546
29,252
177,948
5,562
172,386
1a
(less dynamic)
290,272
17,524
¥13,649
31,173
189,670
6,079
183,591
307,563
19,839
¥13,153
32,992
200,992
6,311
194,681
Notes:
a For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
b Negative number means emissions would increase from reference to control case. PM
2.5 from tire wear and brake wear are included.
(2) Impacts of the Proposed Rules and
Alternative 4 using Analysis Method B
(a) Calendar Year Analysis
(i) Upstream Impacts of the Proposed
Program and Alternative 4
Increasing efficiency in heavy-duty
vehicles would result in reduced fuel
demand, and therefore, reductions in
the emissions associated with all
processes involved in getting petroleum
to the pump. To project these impacts,
Method B estimated the impact of
reduced petroleum volumes on the
extraction and transportation of crude
oil as well as the production and
distribution of finished gasoline and
diesel. For the purpose of assessing
domestic-only emission reductions, it
was necessary to estimate the fraction of
fuel savings attributable to domestic
finished gasoline and diesel, and of this
fuel, what fraction is produced from
domestic crude. Method B estimated the
emissions associated with production
and distribution of gasoline and diesel
from crude oil based on emission factors
in the ‘‘Greenhouse Gases, Regulated
Emissions, and Energy used in
Transportation’’ model (GREET)
developed by DOE’s Argonne National
Laboratory. In some cases, the GREET
values were modified or updated by the
agencies to be consistent with the
National Emission Inventory (NEI) and
emission factors from MOVES. Method
B estimated the projected corresponding
changes in upstream emissions using
the same tools originally created for the
Renewable Fuel Standard 2 (RFS2)
rulemaking analysis,409 used in the LD
GHG rulemakings,410 HD GHG Phase
1,411 and updated for the current
analysis. More information on the
development of the emission factors
used in this analysis can be found in
Chapter 5 of the draft RIA.
Table VIII–14 and Table VIII–15
summarizes the projected upstream
emission impacts of the Preferred
Alternative and Alternative 4 on both
criteria pollutants and air toxics from
the heavy-duty sector, relative to
Alternative 1a. The comparable
estimates relative to Alternative 1b are
presented in Section VIII. A. (1).
TABLE VIII–14—ANNUAL UPSTREAM IMPACTS ON CRITERIA POLLUTANTS AND AIR TOXICS FROM HEAVY-DUTY SECTOR IN
CALENDAR YEARS 2025, 2035 AND 2050—PREFERRED ALTERNATIVE VS. ALT 1a USING ANALYSIS METHOD B a
CY2025
Pollutant
US short
tons
ebenthall on DSK3VPTVN1PROD with MISCELLANEOUS
1,3-Butadiene ...................................................................
Acetaldehyde ...................................................................
Acrolein ............................................................................
Benzene ...........................................................................
CO ....................................................................................
Formaldehyde ..................................................................
NOX ..................................................................................
PM2.5 ................................................................................
SOX ..................................................................................
VOC .................................................................................
¥1
¥4
¥0.5
¥24
¥3,798
¥19
¥9,282
¥1,020
¥5,817
¥3,283
CY2035
%
Reduction
¥5.0
¥3.0
¥3.4
¥3.8
¥4.9
¥4.7
¥4.9
¥4.9
¥4.9
¥3.7
US short
tons
¥4
¥18
¥2
¥92
¥13,001
¥67
¥31,782
¥3,514
¥19,902
¥12,724
CY2050
%
Reduction
¥15.3
¥11.9
¥12.7
¥13.4
¥15.3
¥14.9
¥15.3
¥15.2
¥15.3
¥13.2
US short
tons
¥5
¥26
¥3
¥132
¥18,772
¥98
¥45,888
¥5,072
¥28,736
¥18,214
%
Reduction
¥18.4
¥14.6
¥15.5
¥16.3
¥18.4
¥18.0
¥18.4
¥18.2
¥18.4
¥16.1
Note:
a For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
409 U.S. EPA. Draft Regulatory Impact Analysis:
Changes to Renewable Fuel Standard Program.
Chapters 2 and 3. May 26, 2009. Docket ID: EPA–
HQ–OAR–2009–0472–0119.
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410 2017 and Later Model Year Light-Duty Vehicle
Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Corporate Average
Fuel Economy Standards (77 FR 62623, October 15,
2012).
PO 00000
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Sfmt 4702
411 Greenhouse Gas Emission Standards and Fuel
Efficiency Standards for Medium- and Heavy-Duty
Engines and Vehicles (76 FR 57106, September 15,
2011).
E:\FR\FM\13JYP2.SGM
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40416
Federal Register / Vol. 80, No. 133 / Monday, July 13, 2015 / Proposed Rules
TABLE VIII–15—ANNUAL UPSTREAM IMPACTS ON CRITERIA POLLUTANTS AND AIR TOXICS FROM HEAVY-DUTY SECTOR IN
CALENDAR YEARS 2025, 2035 AND 2050—ALTERNATIVE 4 VS. ALT 1a USING ANALYSIS METHOD B a
CY2025
Pollutant
US short
tons
%
Reduction
¥1
¥6
¥1
¥32
¥4,661
¥24
¥11,393
¥1,256
¥7,137
¥4,342
1,3-Butadiene ...................................................................
Acetaldehyde ...................................................................
Acrolein ............................................................................
Benzene ...........................................................................
CO ....................................................................................
Formaldehyde ..................................................................
NOX ..................................................................................
PM2.5 ................................................................................
SOX ..................................................................................
VOC .................................................................................
CY2035
¥6.1
¥4.3
¥4.7
¥5.0
¥6.1
¥5.9
¥6.1
¥6.0
¥6.1
¥4.9
US short
tons
CY2050
%
Reduction
¥4
¥20
¥2
¥97
¥13,485
¥70
¥32,965
¥3,647
¥20,641
¥13,326
¥15.9
¥12.6
¥13.3
¥14.0
¥15.9
¥15.5
¥15.9
¥15.7
¥15.9
¥13.8
US short
tons
%
Reduction
¥5
¥26
¥3
¥133
¥18,812
¥97
¥45,986
¥5,083
¥28,797
¥18,273
¥18.4
¥14.7
¥15.5
¥16.3
¥18.4
¥18.0
¥18.4
¥18.3
¥18.4
¥16.1
Note:
a For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
(ii) Downstream Impacts of the
Proposed Program and Alternative 4
Both the proposed program and
Alternative 4 would impact the
downstream emissions of non-GHG
pollutants. These pollutants include
oxides of nitrogen (NOX), oxides of
sulfur (SOX), volatile organic
compounds (VOC), carbon monoxide
(CO), fine particulate matter (PM2.5), and
air toxics. The agencies are expecting
reductions in downstream emissions of
NOX, VOC, SOX, CO, and air toxics.
Much of these estimated net reductions
are a result of the agencies’ anticipation
of increased use of auxiliary power
units (APUs) in combination tractors
during extended idling; APUs emit
these pollutants at a lower rate than onroad engines during extended idle
operation, with the exception of PM2.5.
Additional reductions in tailpipe
emissions of NOX and CO and refueling
emissions of VOC would be achieved
through improvements in engine
efficiency and reduced road load
(improved aerodynamics and tire rolling
resistance), which reduces the amount
of work required to travel a given
distance and increases fuel economy.
For vehicle types not affected by road
load improvements, such as HD pickups
and vans,412 non-GHG emissions would
increase very slightly due to VMT
rebound. In addition, brake wear and
tire wear emissions of PM2.5 would also
increase very slightly due to VMT
rebound. The agencies estimate that
downstream emissions of SOX would be
reduced, because they are roughly
proportional to fuel consumption.
Alternative 4 would have directionally
similar effects as the preferred
alternative.
For vocational vehicles and tractortrailers, agencies used MOVES to
determine non-GHG emissions impacts
of the proposed rules and Alternative 4,
relative to the less dynamic baseline
(Alternative 1a). The improvements in
engine efficiency and road load, the
increased use of APUs, and VMT
rebound were included in the MOVES
analysis. For this analysis, Method B
also used the MOVES model for HD
pickups and vans. (Note that for the
comparable analysis as described in
Section VIII. A. (1), Method A used
DOT’s CAFE model). Further
information about the modeling using
DOT’s CAFE and MOVES model is
available in Section VII and Chapter 5
of the draft RIA.
The downstream criteria pollutant
and air toxics impacts of the Preferred
Alternative and Alternative 4, relative to
Alternative 1a, are presented in Table
VIII–16 and Table VIII–17, respectively.
TABLE VIII–16—ANNUAL DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS ON CRITERIA POLLUTANTS AND AIR TOXICS FROM HEAVY-DUTY SECTOR
IN CALENDAR YEARS 2025, 2035 AND 2050—PREFERRED ALTERNATIVE VS. ALT 1a USING ANALYSIS METHOD B a
CY2025
ebenthall on DSK3VPTVN1PROD with MISCELLANEOUS
Pollutant
US short
tons
1,3-Butadiene ...................................................................
Acetaldehyde ...................................................................
Acrolein ............................................................................
Benzene ...........................................................................
CO ....................................................................................
Formaldehyde ..................................................................
NOX ..................................................................................
PM2.5 b ..............................................................................
SOX ..................................................................................
VOC .................................................................................
¥8
¥670
¥97
¥125
¥25,824
¥2,102
¥93,220
634
¥254
¥13,440
CY2035
%
Reduction
¥2.6
¥10.3
¥9.9
¥5.9
¥1.7
¥11.5
¥7.5
1.6
¥4.8
¥6.4
US short
tons
¥22
¥1,884
¥272
¥353
¥72,960
¥5,911
¥267,125
1,631
¥876
¥40,148
CY2050
%
Reduction
¥15.1
¥31.0
¥31.6
¥21.0
¥6.0
¥32.1
¥29.1
7.6
¥15.0
¥21.7
US short
tons
¥31
¥2,671
¥385
¥501
¥103,887
¥8,379
¥380,721
2,257
¥1,264
¥57,308
%
Reduction
¥19.6
¥36.5
¥37.3
¥25.7
¥7.6
¥37.5
¥35.2
9.1
¥18.1
¥26.1
Notes:
a For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
b Positive number means emissions would increase from reference to control case. PM
2.5 from tire wear and brake wear are included.
412 HD pickups and vans are subject to gram per
mile (distance) emission standards, as opposed to
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gram per brake horsepower (work) standard.
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Federal Register / Vol. 80, No. 133 / Monday, July 13, 2015 / Proposed Rules
TABLE VIII–17—ANNUAL DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS ON CRITERIA POLLUTANTS AND AIR TOXICS FROM HEAVY¥DUTY
SECTOR IN CALENDAR YEARS 2025, 2035 AND 2050—ALTERNATIVE 4 VS. ALT 1aUSING ANALYSIS METHOD B a
CY2025
Pollutant
US short
tons
1,3-Butadiene ...................................................................
Acetaldehyde ...................................................................
Acrolein ............................................................................
Benzene ...........................................................................
CO ....................................................................................
Formaldehyde ..................................................................
NOX ..................................................................................
PM2.5 b ..............................................................................
SOX ..................................................................................
VOC .................................................................................
¥8
¥670
¥97
¥126
¥25,919
¥2,101
¥94,787
610
¥313
¥14,310
CY2035
%
Reduction
¥2.6
¥10.3
¥9.9
¥5.9
¥1.7
¥11.5
¥7.6
1.5
¥5.9
¥6.8
US short
tons
¥22
¥1,884
¥272
¥354
¥73,041
¥5,910
¥268,373
1,611
¥909
¥40,640
CY2050
%
Reduction
¥15.1
¥31.0
¥31.6
¥21.0
¥6.0
¥32.1
¥29.2
7.5
¥15.6
¥22.0
US short
tons
¥31
¥2,671
¥385
¥501
¥103,891
¥8,378
¥380,810
2,256
¥1,267
¥57,348
%
Reduction
¥19.6
¥36.5
¥37.3
¥25.7
¥7.6
¥37.5
¥35.2
9.1
¥18.1
¥26.1
Notes:
a For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
b Positive number means emissions would increase from reference to control case. PM
2.5 from tire wear and brake wear are included.
As shown in Table VIII–16, a net
increase in downstream PM2.5 emissions
is expected. Although the improvements
in engine efficiency and road load are
expected to reduce tailpipe emissions of
PM2.5, the projected increased use 413 of
APUs would lead to higher PM2.5
emissions that more than offset the
reductions from the tailpipe, since
engines powering APUs are currently
required to meet less stringent PM
standards than on-road engines.
Therefore, EPA conducted an evaluation
of a program that would reduce the
unintended consequence of increase in
PM2.5 emissions from increased APU
use by fitting the APU with a diesel
particulate filter or having the APU
exhaust plumbed into the vehicle’s
exhaust system upstream of the
particulate matter aftertreatment device.
Such program requiring additional
PM2.5 controls on APU could
significantly reduce PM2.5 emissions, as
shown in Table VIII–18 below. For
additional details, see Section III.C.3 of
the preamble.
TABLE VIII–18—PROJECTED IMPACT ON PM2.5 EMISSIONS OF FURTHER PM2.5 CONTROL ON APUS—PREFERRED
ALTERNATIVE VS. ALT 1a USING ANALYSIS METHOD B (US SHORT TONS) a
Proposed program inventory
without further
PM2.5 control
on APUs
CY
Proposed program inventory
with further
PM2.5 control
on APUs
Net impact of
further PM2.5
control on
APUs
23,083
26,932
19,999
22,588
¥3,084
¥4,344
2035 .............................................................................................................................................
2050 .............................................................................................................................................
Note:
a For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
ebenthall on DSK3VPTVN1PROD with MISCELLANEOUS
It is worth noting that the emission
reductions shown in Table VIII–16 are
not incremental to the emissions
reductions projected in the Phase 1
rulemaking. This is because, as
described in Sections III.D.2.a of the
preamble, the agencies have revised
their assumptions about the adoption
rate of APUs. This proposal assumes
that without the proposed Phase 2
program (i.e., in the Phase 2 reference
case), the APU adoption rate will be 30
percent for model years 2010 and later,
which is the value used in the Phase 1
reference case. EPA conducted an
analysis to estimate the combined
emissions impacts of the Phase 1 and
the proposed Phase 2 programs for NOX,
VOC, SOX and PM2.5 in calendar year
2050 using MOVES2014. The results are
shown in Table VIII–19. For NOX and
PM2.5 only, we estimated the combined
Phase 1 and Phase 2 downstream and
upstream emissions impacts for
calendar year 2025, and project that the
two rules combined would reduce NOX
by up to 120,000 tons and PM2.5 by up
to 2,000 tons in that year. For additional
details, see Chapter 5 of the draft RIA.
413 The projected use of APU during extended
idling is presented in Table VII–3 of the preamble.
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TABLE VIII–19—COMBINED PHASE 1 AND PHASE 2 ANNUAL DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS ON CRITERIA POLLUTANTS FROM
HEAVY-DUTY SECTOR IN CALENDAR YEAR 2050—PREFERRED ALTERNATIVE vs. ALT 1a USING ANALYSIS METHOD B
[US short tons] a
CY
NOX
VOC
SOX
PM2.5b
2050 .................................................................................................................
¥403,915
¥69,415
¥2,111
1,890
Notes:
a For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
b Positive number reflects an increase in emissions.
(iii) Total Impacts of the Proposed
Program and Alternative 4
As shown in Table VIII–20 and Table
VIII–21, agencies estimate that both the
proposed program and Alternative 4
would result in overall net reductions of
NOX, VOC, SOX, CO, PM2.5, and air
toxics emissions. The downstream
increase in PM2.5 due to APU use is
expected to be more than offset by
reductions in PM2.5 from upstream.414
The results are shown both in changes
in absolute tons and in percent
reductions from the less dynamic
reference to the alternatives for the
heavy-duty sector. By 2050, the total
impacts of the proposed program and
Alternative 4 on criteria pollutants and
air toxics are indistinguishable.
TABLE VIII–20—ANNUAL TOTAL IMPACTS (UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM) OF CRITERIA POLLUTANTS AND AIR TOXICS
FROM HEAVY-DUTY SECTOR IN CALENDAR YEARS 2025, 2035 AND 2050—PREFERRED ALTERNATIVE VS. ALT 1a
USING ANALYSIS METHOD B a
CY2025
Pollutant
%
Reduction
1,3-Butadiene ...................................................................
Acetaldehyde ...................................................................
Acrolein ............................................................................
Benzene ...........................................................................
CO ....................................................................................
Formaldehyde ..................................................................
NOX ..................................................................................
PM2.5 ................................................................................
SOX ..................................................................................
VOC .................................................................................
CY2035
US short
tons
¥9
¥674
¥97
¥149
¥29,622
¥2,121
¥102,502
¥386
¥6,070
¥16,724
¥2.7
¥10.1
¥9.8
¥5.4
¥1.9
¥11.4
¥7.2
¥0.6
¥4.9
¥5.6
%
Reduction
CY2050
US short
tons
¥25
¥1,902
¥274
¥445
¥85,961
¥5,978
¥298,907
¥1,883
¥20,777
¥52,872
%
Reduction
¥15.1
¥30.5
¥31.3
¥18.8
¥6.6
¥31.7
¥26.6
¥4.2
¥15.3
¥18.8
¥36
¥2,697
¥388
¥633
¥122,659
¥8,475
¥426,610
¥2,815
¥30,000
¥75,521
US short
tons
¥19.4
¥36.0
¥36.9
¥22.9
¥8.4
¥37.0
¥32.1
¥5.4
¥18.4
¥22.7
Note:
a For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
TABLE VIII–21—ANNUAL TOTAL IMPACTS (UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM) OF CRITERIA POLLUTANTS AND AIR TOXICS
FROM HEAVY-DUTY SECTOR IN CALENDAR YEARS 2025, 2035 AND 2050—ALTERNATIVE 4 vs. ALT 1a USING ANALYSIS METHOD B a
CY2025
ebenthall on DSK3VPTVN1PROD with MISCELLANEOUS
Pollutant
US
short tons
¥9
¥676
¥97
¥157
¥30,580
¥2,125
¥106,180
¥646
¥7,450
¥18,652
1,3-Butadiene ...........................................
Acetaldehyde ...........................................
Acrolein ....................................................
Benzene ...................................................
CO ............................................................
Formaldehyde ..........................................
NOX ..........................................................
PM2.5 ........................................................
SOX ..........................................................
VOC .........................................................
CY2035
%
Reduction
US
short tons
¥2.8
¥10.1
¥9.8
¥5.7
¥1.9
¥11.4
¥7.4
¥1.1
¥6.1
¥6.2
CY2050
%
Reduction
¥26
¥1,903
¥274
¥450
¥86,526
¥5,980
¥301,339
¥2,036
¥21,550
¥53,966
¥15.2
¥30.6
¥31.3
¥18.9
¥6.6
¥31.7
¥26.8
¥4.6
¥15.9
¥19.2
US
short tons
¥36
¥2,697
¥388
¥634
¥122,703
¥8,476
¥426,796
¥2,827
¥30,064
¥75,621
%
Reduction
¥19.4
¥36.0
¥36.9
¥22.9
¥8.4
¥37.0
¥32.1
¥5.4
¥18.4
¥22.7
Note:
a For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
414 Although net reduction in PM
2.5 is expected at
the national level, it is unlikely that the geographic
location of increases in downstream PM2.5
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emissions will coincide with the location of
decreases in upstream PM2.5 emissions. For further
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details, see Section VIII.D of this preamble and in
Chapter 8 of the draft RIA.
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(b) Model Year Lifetime Analysis
In addition to the annual non-GHG
emissions reductions expected from the
proposed rules and Alternative 4, the
combined (downstream and upstream)
non-GHG impacts for the lifetime of the
impacted vehicles were estimated. Table
VIII–22 shows the fleet-wide reductions
of NOX, PM2.5 and SOX from the
preferred alternative and Alternative 4,
relative to Alternative 1a, through the
lifetime 415 of heavy-duty vehicles. For
the lifetime non-GHG reductions by
vehicle categories, see Chapter 5 of the
draft RIA.
TABLE VIII–22—LIFETIME NON-GHG REDUCTIONS USING ANALYSIS METHOD B—SUMMARY FOR MODEL YEARS
2018–2029
[US short tons] a
Alternative 3 (proposed)
Alternative 4
1a
(Less dynamic)
1a
(Less dynamic)
No–action alternative (baseline)
NOX ..............................................................................................................................................................
Downstream ..........................................................................................................................................
Upstream ..............................................................................................................................................
PM2.5 ............................................................................................................................................................
Downstream b .......................................................................................................................................
Upstream ..............................................................................................................................................
SOX ..............................................................................................................................................................
Downstream ..........................................................................................................................................
Upstream ..............................................................................................................................................
2,399,990
2,139,331
260,659
15,206
¥13,528
28,733
169,436
6,158
163,278
2,459,497
2,167,512
291,986
19,151
¥13,089
32,240
189,904
7,035
182,869
Notes:
a For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
b Negative number means emissions would increase from reference to control case. PM
2.5 from tire wear and brake wear are included.
B. Health Effects of Non-GHG Pollutants
In this section, we discuss health
effects associated with exposure to some
of the criteria and air toxic pollutants
impacted by the proposed and
alternative heavy-duty vehicle
standards.
ebenthall on DSK3VPTVN1PROD with MISCELLANEOUS
(1) Particulate Matter
(a) Background
Particulate matter is a highly complex
mixture of solid particles and liquid
droplets distributed among numerous
atmospheric gases which interact with
solid and liquid phases. Particles range
in size from those smaller than 1
nanometer (10¥9 meter) to over 100
micrometer (mm, or 10¥6 meter) in
diameter (for reference, a typical strand
of human hair is 70 mm in diameter and
a grain of salt is about 100 mm).
Atmospheric particles can be grouped
into several classes according to their
aerodynamic and physical sizes.
Generally, the three broad classes of
particles considered by EPA include
ultrafine particles (UFP, aerodynamic
diameter <0.1 mm), ‘‘fine’’ particles
(PM2.5; particles with a nominal mean
aerodynamic diameter less than or equal
to 2.5 mm), and ‘‘thoracic’’ particles
(PM10; particles with a nominal mean
415 A
lifetime of 30 years is assumed in MOVES.
EPA. (2009). Integrated Science
Assessment for Particulate Matter (Final Report).
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,
Washington, DC, EPA/600/R–08/139F. Figure 3–1.
417 Regulatory definitions of PM size fractions,
and information on reference and equivalent
416 U.S.
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aerodynamic diameter less than or equal
to 10 mm).416 Particles that fall within
the size range between PM2.5 and PM10,
are referred to as ‘‘thoracic coarse
particles’’ (PM10–2.5, particles with a
nominal mean aerodynamic diameter
less than or equal to 10 mm and greater
than 2.5 mm). EPA currently has
standards that regulate PM2.5 and
PM10.417
Particles span many sizes and shapes
and may consist of hundreds of different
chemicals. Particles are emitted directly
from sources and are also formed
through atmospheric chemical
reactions; the former are often referred
to as ‘‘primary’’ particles, and the latter
as ‘‘secondary’’ particles. Particle
concentration and composition varies
by time of year and location, and in
addition to differences in source
emissions, is affected by several
weather-related factors, such as
temperature, clouds, humidity, and
wind. A further layer of complexity
comes from particles’ ability to shift
between solid/liquid and gaseous
phases, which is influenced by
concentration and meteorology,
especially temperature.
Fine particles are produced primarily
by combustion processes and by
transformations of gaseous emissions
(e.g., sulfur oxides (SOX), oxides of
nitrogen, and volatile organic
compounds (VOC)) in the atmosphere.
The chemical and physical properties of
PM2.5 may vary greatly with time,
region, meteorology, and source
category. Thus, PM2.5 may include a
complex mixture of different
components including sulfates, nitrates,
organic compounds, elemental carbon
and metal compounds. These particles
can remain in the atmosphere for days
to weeks and travel hundreds to
thousands of kilometers.
methods for measuring PM in ambient air, are
provided in 40 CFR parts 50, 53, and 58. With
regard to national ambient air quality standards
(NAAQS) which provide protection against health
and welfare effects, the 24-hour PM10 standard
provides protection against effects associated with
short-term exposure to thoracic coarse particles
(i.e., PM10–2.5).
418 U.S. EPA. (2009). Integrated Science
Assessment for Particulate Matter (Final Report).
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,
Washington, DC, EPA/600/R–08/139F.
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(b) Health Effects of PM
Scientific studies show ambient PM is
associated with a broad range of health
effects. These health effects are
discussed in detail in the December
2009 Integrated Science Assessment for
Particulate Matter (PM ISA).418 The PM
ISA summarizes health effects evidence
associated with both short- and longterm exposures to PM2.5, PM10–2.5, and
ultrafine particles. The PM ISA
concludes that human exposures to
ambient PM2.5 concentrations are
associated with a number of adverse
health effects and characterizes the
weight of evidence for these health
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ebenthall on DSK3VPTVN1PROD with MISCELLANEOUS
outcomes.419 The discussion below
highlights the PM ISA’s conclusions
pertaining to health effects associated
with both short- and long-term PM
exposures. Further discussion of health
effects associated with PM2.5 can also be
found in the rulemaking documents for
the most recent review of the PM
NAAQS completed in 2012.420 421
EPA has concluded that a causal
relationship exists between both longand short-term exposures to PM2.5 and
premature mortality and cardiovascular
effects and a likely causal relationship
exists between long- and short-term
PM2.5 exposures and respiratory effects.
Further, there is evidence suggestive of
a causal relationship between long-term
PM2.5 exposures and other health
effects, including developmental and
reproductive effects (e.g., low birth
weight, infant mortality) and
carcinogenic, mutagenic, and genotoxic
effects (e.g., lung cancer mortality).422
As summarized in the Final PM
NAAQS rule, and discussed extensively
in the 2009 p.m. ISA, the available
scientific evidence significantly
strengthens the link between long- and
short-term exposure to PM2.5 and
premature mortality, while providing
indications that the magnitude of the
PM2.5- mortality association with longterm exposures may be larger than
previously estimated. 423 424 The
strongest evidence comes from recent
studies investigating long-term exposure
to PM2.5 and cardiovascular-related
mortality. The evidence supporting a
419 The causal framework draws upon the
assessment and integration of evidence from across
epidemiological, controlled human exposure, and
toxicological studies, and the related uncertainties
that ultimately influence our understanding of the
evidence. This framework employs a five-level
hierarchy that classifies the overall weight of
evidence and causality using the following
categorizations: causal relationship, likely to be
causal relationship, suggestive of a causal
relationship, inadequate to infer a causal
relationship, and not likely to be a causal
relationship (U.S. EPA. (2009). Integrated Science
Assessment for Particulate Matter (Final Report).
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,
Washington, DC, EPA/600/R–08/139F, Table 1–3).
420 78 FR 3103–3104, January 15, 2013.
421 77 FR 38906–38911, June 29, 2012.
422 These causal inferences are based not only on
the more expansive epidemiological evidence
available in this review but also reflect
consideration of important progress that has been
made to advance our understanding of a number of
potential biologic modes of action or pathways for
PM-related cardiovascular and respiratory effects
(U.S. EPA. (2009). Integrated Science Assessment
for Particulate Matter (Final Report). U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC,
EPA/600/R–08/139F, Chapter 5).
423 78 FR 3103–3104, January 15, 2013.
424 U.S. EPA. (2009). Integrated Science
Assessment for Particulate Matter (Final Report).
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,
Washington, DC, EPA/600/R–08/139F, Chapter 6
(Section 6.5) and Chapter 7 (Section 7.6).
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causal relationship between long-term
PM2.5 exposure and mortality also
includes consideration of new studies
that demonstrated an improvement in
community health following reductions
in ambient fine particles.
Several studies evaluated in the 2009
p.m. ISA have examined the association
between cardiovascular effects and longterm PM2.5 exposures in multi-city
epidemiological studies conducted in
the U.S. and Europe. These studies have
provided new evidence linking longterm exposure to PM2.5 with an array of
cardiovascular effects such as heart
attacks, congestive heart failure, stroke,
and mortality. This evidence is coherent
with studies of effects associated with
short-term exposure to PM2.5 that have
observed associations with a continuum
of effects ranging from subtle changes in
indicators of cardiovascular health to
serious clinical events, such as
increased hospitalizations and
emergency department visits due to
cardiovascular disease and
cardiovascular mortality.425
As detailed in the 2009 p.m. ISA,
extended analyses of seminal
epidemiological studies, as well as more
recent epidemiological studies
conducted in the U.S. and abroad,
provide strong evidence of respiratoryrelated morbidity effects associated with
long-term PM2.5 exposure. The strongest
evidence for respiratory-related effects
is from studies that evaluated
decrements in lung function growth (in
children), increased respiratory
symptoms, and asthma development.
The strongest evidence from short-term
PM2.5 exposure studies has been
observed for increased respiratoryrelated emergency department visits and
hospital admissions for chronic
obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD)
and respiratory infections.426
The body of scientific evidence
detailed in the 2009 p.m. ISA is still
limited with respect to associations
between long-term PM2.5 exposures and
developmental and reproductive effects
as well as cancer, mutagenic, and
genotoxic effects. The strongest
evidence for an association between
PM2.5 and developmental and
reproductive effects comes from
epidemiological studies of low birth
weight and infant mortality, especially
425 U.S. EPA. (2009). Integrated Science
Assessment for Particulate Matter (Final Report).
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,
Washington, DC, EPA/600/R–08/139F, Chapter 2
(Section 2.3.1 and 2.3.2) and Chapter 6.
426 U.S. EPA. (2009). Integrated Science
Assessment for Particulate Matter (Final Report).
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,
Washington, DC, EPA/600/R–08/139F, Chapter 2
(Section 2.3.1 and 2.3.2) and Chapter 6.
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due to respiratory causes during the
post-neonatal period (i.e., 1 month to 12
months of age).427 With regard to cancer
effects, ‘‘[m]ultiple epidemiologic
studies have shown a consistent
positive association between PM2.5 and
lung cancer mortality, but studies have
generally not reported associations
between PM2.5 and lung cancer
incidence.’’ 428
Specific groups within the general
population are at increased risk for
experiencing adverse health effects
related to PM exposures.429 430 431 432 The
evidence detailed in the 2009 p.m. ISA
expands our understanding of
previously identified at-risk populations
and lifestages (i.e., children, older
adults, and individuals with preexisting heart and lung disease) and
supports the identification of additional
at-risk populations (e.g., persons with
lower socioeconomic status, genetic
differences). Additionally, there is
emerging, though still limited, evidence
for additional potentially at-risk
populations and lifestages, such as those
with diabetes, people who are obese,
pregnant women, and the developing
fetus.433
For PM10–2.5, the 2009 p.m. ISA
concluded that available evidence was
suggestive of a causal relationship
between short-term exposures to
PM10–2.5 and cardiovascular effects (e.g.,
hospital admissions and ED visits,
changes in cardiovascular function),
respiratory effects (e.g., ED visits and
hospital admissions, increase in markers
of pulmonary inflammation), and
premature mortality. Data were
inadequate to draw conclusions
regarding the relationships between
long-term exposure to PM10–2.5 and
various health effects.434 435 436
427 U.S. EPA. (2009). Integrated Science
Assessment for Particulate Matter (Final Report).
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,
Washington, DC, EPA/600/R–08/139F, Chapter 2
(Section 2.3.1 and 2.3.2) and Chapter 7.
428 U.S. EPA. (2009). Integrated Science
Assessment for Particulate Matter (Final Report).
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,
Washington, DC, EPA/600/R–08/139F. pg 2–13
429 U.S. EPA. (2009). Integrated Science
Assessment for Particulate Matter (Final Report).
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,
Washington, DC, EPA/600/R–08/139F. Chapter 8
and Chapter 2.
430 77 FR 38890, June 29, 2012.
431 78 FR 3104, January 15, 2013.
432 U.S. EPA. (2011). Policy Assessment for the
Review of the PM NAAQS. U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency, Washington, DC, EPA/452/R–
11–003. Section 2.2.1.
433 U.S. EPA. (2009). Integrated Science
Assessment for Particulate Matter (Final Report).
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,
Washington, DC, EPA/600/R–08/139F. Chapter 8
and Chapter 2 (Section 2.4.1).
434 U.S. EPA. (2009). Integrated Science
Assessment for Particulate Matter (Final Report).
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For ultrafine particles, the 2009 p.m.
ISA concluded that the evidence was
suggestive of a causal relationship
between short-term exposures and
cardiovascular effects, including
changes in heart rhythm and vasomotor
function (the ability of blood vessels to
expand and contract). It also concluded
that there was evidence suggestive of a
causal relationship between short-term
exposure to ultrafine particles and
respiratory effects, including lung
function and pulmonary inflammation,
with limited and inconsistent evidence
for increases in ED visits and hospital
admissions. Data were inadequate to
draw conclusions regarding the
relationship between short-term
exposure to ultrafine particle and
additional health effects including
premature mortality as well as long-term
exposure to ultrafine particles and all
health outcomes evaluated.437 438
(2) Ozone
(a) Background
ebenthall on DSK3VPTVN1PROD with MISCELLANEOUS
Ground-level ozone pollution is
typically formed through reactions
involving VOC and NOX in the lower
atmosphere in the presence of sunlight.
These pollutants, often referred to as
ozone precursors, are emitted by many
types of pollution sources, such as
highway and nonroad motor vehicles
and engines, power plants, chemical
plants, refineries, makers of consumer
and commercial products, industrial
facilities, and smaller area sources.
The science of ozone formation,
transport, and accumulation is complex.
Ground-level ozone is produced and
destroyed in a cyclical set of chemical
reactions, many of which are sensitive
to temperature and sunlight. When
ambient temperatures and sunlight
levels remain high for several days and
the air is relatively stagnant, ozone and
its precursors can build up and result in
more ozone than typically occurs on a
single high-temperature day. Ozone and
its precursors can be transported
hundreds of miles downwind from
precursor emissions, resulting in
elevated ozone levels even in areas with
low local VOC or NOX emissions.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,
Washington, DC, EPA/600/R–08/139F. Section 2.3.4
and Table 2–6.
435 78 FR 3167–3168, January 15, 2013.
436 77 FR 38947–38951, June 29, 2012.
437 U.S. EPA. (2009). Integrated Science
Assessment for Particulate Matter (Final Report).
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,
Washington, DC, EPA/600/R–08/139F. Section 2.3.5
and Table 2–6.
438 78 FR 3121, January 15, 2013.
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(b) Health Effects of Ozone
This section provides a summary of
the health effects associated with
exposure to ambient concentrations of
ozone.439 The information in this
section is based on the information and
conclusions in the February 2013
Integrated Science Assessment for
Ozone (Ozone ISA).440 The Ozone ISA
concludes that human exposures to
ambient concentrations of ozone are
associated with a number of adverse
health effects and characterizes the
weight of evidence for these health
effects.441 The discussion below
highlights the Ozone ISA’s conclusions
pertaining to health effects associated
with both short-term and long-term
periods of exposure to ozone.
For short-term exposure to ozone, the
Ozone ISA concludes that respiratory
effects, including lung function
decrements, pulmonary inflammation,
exacerbation of asthma, respiratoryrelated hospital admissions, and
mortality, are causally associated with
ozone exposure. It also concludes that
cardiovascular effects, including
decreased cardiac function and
increased vascular disease, and total
mortality are likely to be causally
associated with short-term exposure to
ozone and that evidence is suggestive of
a causal relationship between central
nervous system effects and short-term
exposure to ozone.
For long-term exposure to ozone, the
Ozone ISA concludes that respiratory
effects, including new onset asthma,
pulmonary inflammation and injury, are
likely to be causally related with ozone
exposure. The Ozone ISA characterizes
the evidence as suggestive of a causal
relationship for associations between
long-term ozone exposure and
cardiovascular effects, reproductive and
developmental effects, central nervous
system effects and total mortality. The
439 Human exposure to ozone varies over time
due to changes in ambient ozone concentration and
because people move between locations which have
notable different ozone concentrations. Also, the
amount of ozone delivered to the lung is not only
influenced by the ambient concentrations but also
by the individuals breathing route and rate.
440 U.S. EPA. Integrated Science Assessment of
Ozone and Related Photochemical Oxidants (Final
Report). U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,
Washington, DC, EPA/600/R–10/076F, 2013. The
ISA is available at https://cfpub.epa.gov/ncea/isa/
recordisplay.cfm?deid=247492#Download.
441 The ISA evaluates evidence and draws
conclusions on the causal relationship between
relevant pollutant exposures and health effects,
assigning one of five ‘‘weight of evidence’’
determinations: causal relationship, likely to be a
causal relationship, suggestive of a causal
relationship, inadequate to infer a causal
relationship, and not likely to be a causal
relationship. For more information on these levels
of evidence, please refer to Table II in the Preamble
of the ISA.
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40421
evidence is inadequate to infer a causal
relationship between chronic ozone
exposure and increased risk of lung
cancer.
Finally, interindividual variation in
human responses to ozone exposure can
result in some groups being at increased
risk for detrimental effects in response
to exposure. The Ozone ISA identified
several groups that are at increased risk
for ozone-related health effects. These
groups are people with asthma, children
and older adults, individuals with
reduced intake of certain nutrients (i.e.,
Vitamins C and E), outdoor workers,
and individuals having certain genetic
variants related to oxidative metabolism
or inflammation. Ozone exposure
during childhood can have lasting
effects through adulthood. Such effects
include altered function of the
respiratory and immune systems.
Children absorb higher doses
(normalized to lung surface area) of
ambient ozone, compared to adults, due
to their increased time spent outdoors,
higher ventilation rates relative to body
size, and a tendency to breathe a greater
fraction of air through the mouth.
Children also have a higher asthma
prevalence compared to adults.
Additional children’s vulnerability and
susceptibility factors are listed in
Section XIV.
(3) Nitrogen Oxides
(a) Background
Nitrogen dioxide (NO2) is a member of
the NOX family of gases. Most NO2 is
formed in the air through the oxidation
of nitric oxide (NO) emitted when fuel
is burned at a high temperature. NO2
and its gas phase oxidation products can
dissolve in water droplets and further
oxidize to form nitric acid which reacts
with ammonia to form nitrates, which
are important components of ambient
PM. The health effects of ambient PM
are discussed in Section VIII.B.1.b of
this preamble. NOX and VOC are the
two major precursors of ozone. The
health effects of ozone are covered in
Section VIII.B.2.b.
(b) Health Effects of Nitrogen Oxides
The most recent review of the health
effects of oxides of nitrogen completed
by EPA can be found in the 2008
Integrated Science Assessment for
Oxides of Nitrogen—Health Criteria
(Oxides of Nitrogen ISA).442 EPA
concluded that the findings of
epidemiological, controlled human
exposure, and animal toxicological
442 U.S. EPA (2008). Integrated Science
Assessment for Oxides of Nitrogen—Health Criteria
(Final Report). EPA/600/R–08/071. Washington,
DC: U.S. EPA.
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studies provided evidence that was
sufficient to infer a likely causal
relationship between respiratory effects
and short-term NO2 exposure. The 2008
ISA for Oxides of Nitrogen concluded
that the strongest evidence for such a
relationship comes from
epidemiological studies of respiratory
effects including increased respiratory
symptoms, emergency department
visits, and hospital admissions. Based
on both short- and long-term exposure
studies, the 2008 ISA for Oxides of
Nitrogen concluded that individuals
with preexisting pulmonary conditions
(e.g., asthma or COPD), children, and
older adults are potentially at greater
risk of NO2-related respiratory effects.
Based on findings from controlled
human exposure studies, the 2008 ISA
for Oxides of Nitrogen also drew two
broad conclusions regarding airway
responsiveness following NO2 exposure.
First, the ISA concluded that NO2
exposure may enhance the sensitivity to
allergen-induced decrements in lung
function and increase the allergeninduced airway inflammatory response
following 30-minute exposures of
asthmatic adults to NO2 concentrations
as low as 260 ppb.443 Second, exposure
to NO2 was found to enhance the
inherent responsiveness of the airway to
subsequent nonspecific challenges in
controlled human exposure studies of
healthy and asthmatic adults.
Statistically significant increases in
nonspecific airway responsiveness were
reported for asthmatic adults following
30-minute exposures to 200–300 ppb
NO2 and following 1-hour exposures to
100 ppb NO2.444 Enhanced airway
responsiveness could have important
clinical implications for asthmatics
since transient increases in airway
responsiveness following NO2 exposure
have the potential to increase symptoms
and worsen asthma control. Together,
the epidemiological and experimental
data sets formed a plausible, consistent,
and coherent description of a
relationship between NO2 exposures
and an array of adverse health effects
that range from the onset of respiratory
symptoms to hospital admissions and
emergency department visits for
respiratory causes, especially asthma.445
443 U.S. EPA (2008). Integrated Science
Assessment for Oxides of Nitrogen—Health Criteria
(Final Report). EPA/600/R–08/071. Washington,
DC: U.S. EPA, Section 3.1.3.1.
444 U.S. EPA (2008). Integrated Science
Assessment for Oxides of Nitrogen—Health Criteria
(Final Report). EPA/600/R–08/071. Washington,
DC: U.S.EPA, Section 3.1.3.2.
445 U.S. EPA (2008). Integrated Science
Assessment for Oxides of Nitrogen—Health Criteria
(Final Report). EPA/600/R–08/071. Washington,
DC: U.S. EPA, Section 3.1.7.
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In evaluating a broader range of health
effects, the 2008 ISA for Oxides of
Nitrogen concluded evidence was
‘‘suggestive but not sufficient to infer a
causal relationship’’ between short-term
NO2 exposure and premature mortality
and between long-term NO2 exposure
and respiratory effects. The latter was
based largely on associations observed
between long-term NO2 exposure and
decreases in lung function growth in
children. Furthermore, the 2008 ISA for
Oxides of Nitrogen concluded that
evidence was ‘‘inadequate to infer the
presence or absence of a causal
relationship’’ between short-term NO2
exposure and cardiovascular effects as
well as between long-term NO2
exposure and cardiovascular effects,
reproductive and developmental effects,
premature mortality, and cancer.446 The
conclusions for these health effect
categories were informed by
uncertainties in the evidence base such
as the independent effects of NO2
exposure within the broader mixture of
traffic-related pollutants, limited
evidence from experimental studies,
and/or an overall limited literature base.
(4) Sulfur Oxides
(a) Background
Sulfur dioxide (SO2), a member of the
sulfur oxide (SOX) family of gases, is
formed from burning fuels containing
sulfur (e.g., coal or oil derived),
extracting gasoline from oil, or
extracting metals from ore. SO2 and its
gas phase oxidation products can
dissolve in water droplets and further
oxidize to form sulfuric acid which
reacts with ammonia to form sulfates,
which are important components of
ambient PM. The health effects of
ambient PM are discussed in Section
VIII.B.1.b of this preamble.
(b) Health Effects of SO2
Information on the health effects of
SO2 can be found in the 2008 Integrated
Science Assessment for Sulfur Oxides—
Health Criteria (SOX ISA).447 Short-term
peaks of SO2 have long been known to
cause adverse respiratory health effects,
particularly among individuals with
asthma. In addition to those with
asthma (both children and adults),
potentially sensitive groups include all
children and the elderly. During periods
446 U.S. EPA (2008). Integrated Science
Assessment for Oxides of Nitrogen—Health Criteria
(Final Report). EPA/600/R–08/071. Washington,
DC: U.S. EPA.
447 U.S. EPA. (2008). Integrated Science
Assessment (ISA) for Sulfur Oxides—Health
Criteria (Final Report). EPA/600/R–08/047F.
Washington, DC: U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency.
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of elevated ventilation, asthmatics may
experience symptomatic
bronchoconstriction within minutes of
exposure. Following an extensive
evaluation of health evidence from
epidemiologic and laboratory studies,
EPA concluded that there is a causal
relationship between respiratory health
effects and short-term exposure to SO2.
Separately, based on an evaluation of
the epidemiologic evidence of
associations between short-term
exposure to SO2 and mortality, EPA
concluded that the overall evidence is
suggestive of a causal relationship
between short-term exposure to SO2 and
mortality. Additional information on the
health effects of SO2 is available in
Chapter 6.1.1.4.2 of the RIA.
(5) Carbon Monoxide
(a) Background
Carbon monoxide (CO) is a colorless,
odorless gas emitted from combustion
processes. Nationally and, particularly
in urban areas, the majority of CO
emissions to ambient air come from
mobile sources.
(b) Health Effects of Carbon Monoxide
Information on the health effects of
CO can be found in the January 2010
Integrated Science Assessment for
Carbon Monoxide (CO ISA).448 The CO
ISA concludes that ambient
concentrations of CO are associated
with a number of adverse health
effects.449 This section provides a
summary of the health effects associated
with exposure to ambient
concentrations of CO.450
Controlled human exposure studies of
subjects with coronary artery disease
show a decrease in the time to onset of
exercise-induced angina (chest pain)
and electrocardiogram changes
following CO exposure. In addition,
epidemiologic studies show associations
between short-term CO exposure and
448 U.S. EPA, (2010). Integrated Science
Assessment for Carbon Monoxide (Final Report).
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,
Washington, DC, EPA/600/R–09/019F, 2010.
Available at https://cfpub.epa.gov/ncea/cfm/
recordisplay.cfm?deid=218686.
449 The ISA evaluates the health evidence
associated with different health effects, assigning
one of five ‘‘weight of evidence’’ determinations:
causal relationship, likely to be a causal
relationship, suggestive of a causal relationship,
inadequate to infer a causal relationship, and not
likely to be a causal relationship. For definitions of
these levels of evidence, please refer to Section 1.6
of the ISA.
450 Personal exposure includes contributions from
many sources, and in many different environments.
Total personal exposure to CO includes both
ambient and nonambient components; and both
components may contribute to adverse health
effects.
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cardiovascular morbidity, particularly
increased emergency room visits and
hospital admissions for coronary heart
disease (including ischemic heart
disease, myocardial infarction, and
angina). Some epidemiologic evidence
is also available for increased hospital
admissions and emergency room visits
for congestive heart failure and
cardiovascular disease as a whole. The
CO ISA concludes that a causal
relationship is likely to exist between
short-term exposures to CO and
cardiovascular morbidity. It also
concludes that available data are
inadequate to conclude that a causal
relationship exists between long-term
exposures to CO and cardiovascular
morbidity.
Animal studies show various
neurological effects with in-utero CO
exposure. Controlled human exposure
studies report central nervous system
and behavioral effects following lowlevel CO exposures, although the
findings have not been consistent across
all studies. The CO ISA concludes the
evidence is suggestive of a causal
relationship with both short- and longterm exposure to CO and central
nervous system effects.
A number of studies cited in the CO
ISA have evaluated the role of CO
exposure in birth outcomes such as
preterm birth or cardiac birth defects.
The epidemiologic studies provide
limited evidence of a CO-induced effect
on preterm births and birth defects, with
weak evidence for a decrease in birth
weight. Animal toxicological studies
have found perinatal CO exposure to
affect birth weight, as well as other
developmental outcomes. The CO ISA
concludes the evidence is suggestive of
a causal relationship between long-term
exposures to CO and developmental
effects and birth outcomes.
Epidemiologic studies provide
evidence of associations between
ambient CO concentrations and
respiratory morbidity such as changes in
pulmonary function, respiratory
symptoms, and hospital admissions. A
limited number of epidemiologic
studies considered copollutants such as
ozone, SO2, and PM in two-pollutant
models and found that CO risk estimates
were generally robust, although this
limited evidence makes it difficult to
disentangle effects attributed to CO
itself from those of the larger complex
air pollution mixture. Controlled human
exposure studies have not extensively
evaluated the effect of CO on respiratory
morbidity. Animal studies at levels of
50–100 ppm CO show preliminary
evidence of altered pulmonary vascular
remodeling and oxidative injury. The
CO ISA concludes that the evidence is
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suggestive of a causal relationship
between short-term CO exposure and
respiratory morbidity, and inadequate to
conclude that a causal relationship
exists between long-term exposure and
respiratory morbidity.
Finally, the CO ISA concludes that
the epidemiologic evidence is
suggestive of a causal relationship
between short-term concentrations of
CO and mortality. Epidemiologic
studies provide evidence of an
association between short-term
exposure to CO and mortality, but
limited evidence is available to evaluate
cause-specific mortality outcomes
associated with CO exposure. In
addition, the attenuation of CO risk
estimates which was often observed in
copollutant models contributes to the
uncertainty as to whether CO is acting
alone or as an indicator for other
combustion-related pollutants. The CO
ISA also concludes that there is not
likely to be a causal relationship
between relevant long-term exposures to
CO and mortality.
(6) Diesel Exhaust
(a) Background
Diesel exhaust consists of a complex
mixture composed of carbon dioxide,
oxygen, nitrogen, water vapor, carbon
monoxide, nitrogen compounds, sulfur
compounds and numerous lowmolecular-weight hydrocarbons. A
number of these gaseous hydrocarbon
components are individually known to
be toxic, including aldehydes, benzene
and 1,3-butadiene. The diesel
particulate matter present in diesel
exhaust consists mostly of fine particles
(< 2.5 mm), of which a significant
fraction is ultrafine particles (< 0.1 mm).
These particles have a large surface area
which makes them an excellent medium
for adsorbing organics and their small
size makes them highly respirable.
Many of the organic compounds present
in the gases and on the particles, such
as polycyclic organic matter, are
individually known to have mutagenic
and carcinogenic properties.
Diesel exhaust varies significantly in
chemical composition and particle sizes
between different engine types (heavyduty, light-duty), engine operating
conditions (idle, accelerate, decelerate),
and fuel formulations (high/low sulfur
fuel). Also, there are emissions
differences between on-road and
nonroad engines because the nonroad
engines are generally of older
technology. After being emitted in the
engine exhaust, diesel exhaust
undergoes dilution as well as chemical
and physical changes in the atmosphere.
The lifetime for some of the compounds
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present in diesel exhaust ranges from
hours to days.
(b) Health Effects of Diesel Exhaust
In EPA’s 2002 Diesel Health
Assessment Document (Diesel HAD),
exposure to diesel exhaust was
classified as likely to be carcinogenic to
humans by inhalation from
environmental exposures, in accordance
with the revised draft 1996/1999 EPA
cancer guidelines.451 452 A number of
other agencies (National Institute for
Occupational Safety and Health, the
International Agency for Research on
Cancer, the World Health Organization,
California EPA, and the U.S.
Department of Health and Human
Services) had made similar hazard
classifications prior to 2002. EPA also
concluded in the 2002 Diesel HAD that
it was not possible to calculate a cancer
unit risk for diesel exhaust due to
limitations in the exposure data for the
occupational groups or the absence of a
dose-response relationship.
In the absence of a cancer unit risk,
the Diesel HAD sought to provide
additional insight into the significance
of the diesel exhaust cancer hazard by
estimating possible ranges of risk that
might be present in the population. An
exploratory analysis was used to
characterize a range of possible lung
cancer risk. The outcome was that
environmental risks of cancer from longterm diesel exhaust exposures could
plausibly range from as low as 10¥5 to
as high as 10¥3. Because of
uncertainties, the analysis
acknowledged that the risks could be
lower than 10¥5, and a zero risk from
diesel exhaust exposure could not be
ruled out.
Non-cancer health effects of acute and
chronic exposure to diesel exhaust
emissions are also of concern to EPA.
EPA derived a diesel exhaust reference
concentration (RfC) from consideration
of four well-conducted chronic rat
inhalation studies showing adverse
pulmonary effects. The RfC is 5 mg/m3
for diesel exhaust measured as diesel
particulate matter. This RfC does not
consider allergenic effects such as those
associated with asthma or immunologic
or the potential for cardiac effects. There
was emerging evidence in 2002,
discussed in the Diesel HAD, that
451 U.S. EPA. (1999). Guidelines for Carcinogen
Risk Assessment. Review Draft. NCEA–F–0644,
July. Washington, DC: U.S. EPA. Retrieved on
March 19, 2009 from https://cfpub.epa.gov/ncea/
cfm/recordisplay.cfm?deid=54932.
452 U.S. EPA (2002). Health Assessment
Document for Diesel Engine Exhaust. EPA/600/8–
90/057F Office of Research and Development,
Washington DC. Retrieved on March 17, 2009 from
https://cfpub.epa.gov/ncea/cfm/
recordisplay.cfm?deid=29060. pp. 1–1 1–2.
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exposure to diesel exhaust can
exacerbate these effects, but the
exposure-response data were lacking at
that time to derive an RfC based on
these then emerging considerations.
EPA Diesel HAD states, ‘‘With [diesel
particulate matter] being a ubiquitous
component of ambient PM, there is an
uncertainty about the adequacy of the
existing [diesel exhaust] noncancer
database to identify all of the pertinent
[diesel exhaust]-caused noncancer
health hazards.’’ The Diesel HAD also
notes ‘‘that acute exposure to [diesel
exhaust] has been associated with
irritation of the eye, nose, and throat,
respiratory symptoms (cough and
phlegm), and neurophysiological
symptoms such as headache,
lightheadedness, nausea, vomiting, and
numbness or tingling of the
extremities.’’ The Diesel HAD noted that
the cancer and noncancer hazard
conclusions applied to the general use
of diesel engines then on the market and
as cleaner engines replace a substantial
number of existing ones, the
applicability of the conclusions would
need to be reevaluated.
It is important to note that the Diesel
HAD also briefly summarizes health
effects associated with ambient PM and
discusses EPA’s then-annual PM2.5
NAAQS of 15 mg/m3. In 2012, EPA
revised the annual PM2.5 NAAQS to 12
mg/m3. There is a large and extensive
body of human data showing a wide
spectrum of adverse health effects
associated with exposure to ambient
PM, of which diesel exhaust is an
important component. The PM2.5
NAAQS is designed to provide
protection from the noncancer health
effects and premature mortality
attributed to exposure to PM2.5. The
contribution of diesel PM to total
ambient PM varies in different regions
of the country and also, within a region,
from one area to another. The
contribution can be high in nearroadway environments, for example, or
in other locations where diesel engine
use is concentrated.
Since 2002, several new studies have
been published which continue to
report increased lung cancer risk with
occupational exposure to diesel exhaust
from older engines. Of particular note
since 2011 are three new epidemiology
studies which have examined lung
cancer in occupational populations, for
example, truck drivers, underground
nonmetal miners and other diesel motor
related occupations. These studies
reported increased risk of lung cancer
with exposure to diesel exhaust with
evidence of positive exposure-response
relationships to varying
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degrees.453 454 455 These newer studies
(along with others that have appeared in
the scientific literature) add to the
evidence EPA evaluated in the 2002
Diesel HAD and further reinforces the
concern that diesel exhaust exposure
likely poses a lung cancer hazard. The
findings from these newer studies do
not necessarily apply to newer
technology diesel engines since the
newer engines have large reductions in
the emission constituents compared to
older technology diesel engines.
In light of the growing body of
scientific literature evaluating the health
effects of exposure to diesel exhaust, in
June 2012 the World Health
Organization’s International Agency for
Research on Cancer (IARC), a
recognized international authority on
the carcinogenic potential of chemicals
and other agents, evaluated the full
range of cancer related health effects
data for diesel engine exhaust. IARC
concluded that diesel exhaust should be
regarded as ‘‘carcinogenic to
humans.’’ 456 This designation was an
update from its 1988 evaluation that
considered the evidence to be indicative
of a ‘‘probable human carcinogen.’’
(7) Air Toxics
(a) Background
Heavy-duty vehicle emissions
contribute to ambient levels of air toxics
known or suspected as human or animal
carcinogens, or that have noncancer
health effects. The population
experiences an elevated risk of cancer
and other noncancer health effects from
exposure to the class of pollutants
known collectively as ‘‘air toxics.’’ 457
These compounds include, but are not
limited to, benzene, 1,3-butadiene,
formaldehyde, acetaldehyde, acrolein,
polycyclic organic matter, and
naphthalene. These compounds were
identified as national or regional risk
453 Garshick, Eric, Francine Laden, Jaime E. Hart,
Mary E. Davis, Ellen A. Eisen, and Thomas J. Smith.
2012. Lung cancer and elemental carbon exposure
in trucking industry workers. Environmental Health
Perspectives 120(9): 1301–1306.
454 Silverman, D.T., Samanic, C.M., Lubin, J.H.,
Blair, A.E., Stewart, P.A., Vermeulen, R., & Attfield,
M.D. (2012). The diesel exhaust in miners study: A
nested case–control study of lung cancer and diesel
exhaust. Journal of the National Cancer Institute.
455 Olsson, Ann C., et al. ‘‘Exposure to diesel
motor exhaust and lung cancer risk in a pooled
analysis from case-control studies in Europe and
Canada.’’ American journal of respiratory and
critical care medicine 183.7 (2011): 941–948.
456 IARC [International Agency for Research on
Cancer]. (2013). Diesel and gasoline engine exhausts
and some nitroarenes. IARC Monographs Volume
105. [Online at https://monographs.iarc.fr/ENG/
Monographs/vol105/index.php].
457 U.S. EPA. (2011) Summary of Results for the
2005 National-Scale Assessment. www.epa.gov/ttn/
atw/nata2005/05pdf/sum_results.pdf.
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drivers or contributors in the 2005
National-scale Air Toxics Assessment
and have significant inventory
contributions from mobile sources.458
(b) Benzene
EPA’s Integrated Risk Information
System (IRIS) database lists benzene as
a known human carcinogen (causing
leukemia) by all routes of exposure, and
concludes that exposure is associated
with additional health effects, including
genetic changes in both humans and
animals and increased proliferation of
bone marrow cells in mice.459 460 461 EPA
states in its IRIS database that data
indicate a causal relationship between
benzene exposure and acute
lymphocytic leukemia and suggest a
relationship between benzene exposure
and chronic non-lymphocytic leukemia
and chronic lymphocytic leukemia.
EPA’s IRIS documentation for benzene
also lists a range of 2.2 × 10¥6 to 7.8 ×
10¥6 as the unit risk estimate (URE) for
benzene.462 463 The International Agency
for Research on Carcinogens (IARC) has
determined that benzene is a human
carcinogen and the U.S. Department of
Health and Human Services (DHHS) has
characterized benzene as a known
human carcinogen.464 465
A number of adverse noncancer
health effects including blood disorders,
such as pre leukemia and aplastic
anemia, have also been associated with
long-term exposure to benzene.466 467
458 U.S. EPA (2011) 2005 National-Scale Air
Toxics Assessment. https://www.epa.gov/ttn/atw/
nata2005.
459 U.S. EPA. (2000). Integrated Risk Information
System File for Benzene. This material is available
electronically at: https://www.epa.gov/iris/subst/
0276.htm.
460 International Agency for Research on Cancer,
IARC monographs on the evaluation of carcinogenic
risk of chemicals to humans, Volume 29, some
industrial chemicals and dyestuffs, International
Agency for Research on Cancer, World Health
Organization, Lyon, France 1982.
461 Irons, R.D.; Stillman, W.S.; Colagiovanni, D.B.;
Henry, V.A. (1992). Synergistic action of the
benzene metabolite hydroquinone on myelopoietic
stimulating activity of granulocyte/macrophage
colony-stimulating factor in vitro, Proc. Natl. Acad.
Sci. 89:3691–3695.
462 A unit risk estimate is defined as the increase
in the lifetime risk of an individual who is exposed
for a lifetime to 1 mg/m3 benzene in air.
463 U.S. EPA. (2000). Integrated Risk Information
System File for Benzene. This material is available
electronically at: https://www.epa.gov/iris/subst/
0276.htm.
464 International Agency for Research on Cancer
(IARC). (1987). Monographs on the evaluation of
carcinogenic risk of chemicals to humans, Volume
29, Supplement 7, Some industrial chemicals and
dyestuffs, World Health Organization, Lyon, France.
465 NTP. (2014). 13th Report on Carcinogens.
Research Triangle Park, NC: U.S. Department of
Health and Human Services, Public Health Service,
National Toxicology Program.
466 Aksoy, M. (1989). Hematotoxicity and
carcinogenicity of benzene. Environ. Health
Perspect. 82: 193–197.
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The most sensitive noncancer effect
observed in humans, based on current
data, is the depression of the absolute
lymphocyte count in blood.468 469 EPA’s
inhalation reference concentration (RfC)
for benzene is 30 mg/m3. The RfC is
based on suppressed absolute
lymphocyte counts seen in humans
under occupational exposure
conditions. In addition, recent work,
including studies sponsored by the
Health Effects Institute, provides
evidence that biochemical responses are
occurring at lower levels of benzene
exposure than previously
known.470 471 472 473 EPA’s IRIS program
has not yet evaluated these new data.
EPA does not currently have an acute
reference concentration for benzene.
The Agency for Toxic Substances and
Disease Registry (ATSDR) Minimal Risk
Level (MRL) for acute exposure to
benzene is 29 mg/m3 for 1–14 days
exposure.474 475
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(c) 1,3-Butadiene
EPA has characterized 1,3-butadiene
as carcinogenic to humans by
inhalation.476 477 The IARC has
467 Goldstein, B.D. (1988). Benzene toxicity.
Occupational medicine. State of the Art Reviews. 3:
541–554.
468 Rothman, N., G.L. Li, M. Dosemeci, W.E.
Bechtold, G.E. Marti, Y.Z. Wang, M. Linet, L.Q. Xi,
W. Lu, M.T. Smith, N. Titenko-Holland, L.P. Zhang,
W. Blot, S.N. Yin, and R.B. Hayes. (1996).
Hematotoxicity among Chinese workers heavily
exposed to benzene. Am. J. Ind. Med. 29: 236–246.
469 U.S. EPA. (2002). Toxicological Review of
Benzene (Noncancer Effects). Environmental
Protection Agency, Integrated Risk Information
System (IRIS), Research and Development, National
Center for Environmental Assessment, Washington
DC. This material is available electronically at
https://www.epa.gov/iris/subst/0276.htm.
470 Qu, O.; Shore, R.; Li, G.; Jin, X.; Chen, C.L.;
Cohen, B.; Melikian, A.; Eastmond, D.; Rappaport,
S.; Li, H.; Rupa, D.; Suramaya, R.; Songnian, W.;
Huifant, Y.; Meng, M.; Winnik, M.; Kwok, E.; Li, Y.;
Mu, R.; Xu, B.; Zhang, X.; Li, K. (2003). HEI Report
115, Validation & Evaluation of Biomarkers in
Workers Exposed to Benzene in China.
471 Qu, Q., R. Shore, G. Li, X. Jin, L.C. Chen, B.
Cohen, et al. (2002). Hematological changes among
Chinese workers with a broad range of benzene
exposures. Am. J. Industr. Med. 42: 275–285.
472 Lan, Qing, Zhang, L., Li, G., Vermeulen, R., et
al. (2004). Hematotoxically in Workers Exposed to
Low Levels of Benzene. Science 306: 1774–1776.
473 Turtletaub, K.W. and Mani, C. (2003). Benzene
metabolism in rodents at doses relevant to human
exposure from Urban Air. Research Reports Health
Effect Inst. Report No.113.
474 U.S. Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease
Registry (ATSDR). (2007). Toxicological profile for
benzene. Atlanta, GA: U.S. Department of Health
and Human Services, Public Health Service. https://
www.atsdr.cdc.gov/ToxProfiles/tp3.pdf.
475 A minimal risk level (MRL) is defined as an
estimate of the daily human exposure to a
hazardous substance that is likely to be without
appreciable risk of adverse noncancer health effects
over a specified duration of exposure.
476 U.S. EPA. (2002). Health Assessment of 1,3Butadiene. Office of Research and Development,
National Center for Environmental Assessment,
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determined that 1,3-butadiene is a
human carcinogen and the U.S. DHHS
has characterized 1,3-butadiene as a
known human carcinogen.478 479 480
There are numerous studies consistently
demonstrating that 1,3-butadiene is
metabolized into genotoxic metabolites
by experimental animals and humans.
The specific mechanisms of 1,3butadiene-induced carcinogenesis are
unknown; however, the scientific
evidence strongly suggests that the
carcinogenic effects are mediated by
genotoxic metabolites. Animal data
suggest that females may be more
sensitive than males for cancer effects
associated with 1,3-butadiene exposure;
there are insufficient data in humans
from which to draw conclusions about
sensitive subpopulations. The URE for
1,3-butadiene is 3 × 10¥5 per mg/m3.481
1,3-butadiene also causes a variety of
reproductive and developmental effects
in mice; no human data on these effects
are available. The most sensitive effect
was ovarian atrophy observed in a
lifetime bioassay of female mice.482
Based on this critical effect and the
benchmark concentration methodology,
an RfC for chronic health effects was
calculated at 0.9 ppb (approximately 2
mg/m3).
(d) Formaldehyde
In 1991, EPA concluded that
formaldehyde is a carcinogen based on
Washington Office, Washington, DC. Report No.
EPA600–P–98–001F. This document is available
electronically at https://www.epa.gov/iris/supdocs/
buta-sup.pdf.
477 U.S. EPA. (2002). ‘‘Full IRIS Summary for 1,3butadiene (CASRN 106–99–0)’’ Environmental
Protection Agency, Integrated Risk Information
System (IRIS), Research and Development, National
Center for Environmental Assessment, Washington,
DC https://www.epa.gov/iris/subst/0139.htm.
478 International Agency for Research on Cancer
(IARC). (1999). Monographs on the evaluation of
carcinogenic risk of chemicals to humans, Volume
71, Re-evaluation of some organic chemicals,
hydrazine and hydrogen peroxide and Volume 97
(in preparation), World Health Organization, Lyon,
France.
479 International Agency for Research on Cancer
(IARC). (2008). Monographs on the evaluation of
carcinogenic risk of chemicals to humans, 1,3Butadiene, Ethylene Oxide and Vinyl Halides
(Vinyl Fluoride, Vinyl Chloride and Vinyl Bromide)
Volume 97, World Health Organization, Lyon,
France.
480 NTP. (2014). 13th Report on Carcinogens.
Research Triangle Park, NC: U.S. Department of
Health and Human Services, Public Health Service,
National Toxicology Program.
481 U.S. EPA. (2002). ‘‘Full IRIS Summary for 1,3butadiene (CASRN 106–99–0)’’ Environmental
Protection Agency, Integrated Risk Information
System (IRIS), Research and Development, National
Center for Environmental Assessment, Washington,
DC https://www.epa.gov/iris/subst/0139.htm.
482 Bevan, C.; Stadler, J.C.; Elliot, G.S.; et al.
(1996). Subchronic toxicity of 4-vinylcyclohexene
in rats and mice by inhalation. Fundam. Appl.
Toxicol. 32:1–10.
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nasal tumors in animal bioassays.483 An
Inhalation URE for cancer and a
Reference Dose for oral noncancer
effects were developed by the agency
and posted on the IRIS database. Since
that time, the National Toxicology
Program (NTP) and International
Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC)
have concluded that formaldehyde is a
known human carcinogen.484 485
The conclusions by IARC and NTP
reflect the results of epidemiologic
research published since 1991 in
combination with previous animal,
human and mechanistic evidence.
Research conducted by the National
Cancer Institute reported an increased
risk of nasopharyngeal cancer and
specific lymph hematopoietic
malignancies among workers exposed to
formaldehyde.486 487 488 A National
Institute of Occupational Safety and
Health study of garment workers also
reported increased risk of death due to
leukemia among workers exposed to
formaldehyde.489 Extended follow-up of
a cohort of British chemical workers did
not report evidence of an increase in
nasopharyngeal or lymph hematopoietic
cancers, but a continuing statistically
significant excess in lung cancers was
reported.490 Finally, a study of
embalmers reported formaldehyde
exposures to be associated with an
increased risk of myeloid leukemia but
not brain cancer.491
483 EPA. Integrated Risk Information System.
Formaldehyde (CASRN 50–00–0) https://
www.epa.gov/iris/subst/0419/htm.
484 NTP. (2014). 13th Report on Carcinogens.
Research Triangle Park, NC: U.S. Department of
Health and Human Services, Public Health Service,
National Toxicology Program.
485 IARC Monographs on the Evaluation of
Carcinogenic Risks to Humans Volume 100F (2012):
Formaldehyde.
486 Hauptmann, M.; Lubin, J.H.; Stewart, P.A.;
Hayes, R.B.; Blair, A. 2003. Mortality from
lymphohematopoetic malignancies among workers
in formaldehyde industries. Journal of the National
Cancer Institute 95: 1615–1623.
487 Hauptmann, M.; Lubin, J.H.; Stewart, P.A.;
Hayes, R.B.; Blair, A. 2004. Mortality from solid
cancers among workers in formaldehyde industries.
American Journal of Epidemiology 159: 1117–1130.
488 Beane Freeman, L.E.; Blair, A.; Lubin, J.H.;
Stewart, P.A.; Hayes, R.B.; Hoover, R.N.;
Hauptmann, M. 2009. Mortality from lymph
hematopoietic malignancies among workers in
formaldehyde industries: The National Cancer
Institute cohort. J. National Cancer Inst. 101: 751–
761.
489 Pinkerton, L.E. 2004. Mortality among a cohort
of garment workers exposed to formaldehyde: An
update. Occup. Environ. Med. 61: 193–200.
490 Coggon, D., E.C. Harris, J. Poole, K.T. Palmer.
2003. Extended follow-up of a cohort of British
chemical workers exposed to formaldehyde. J
National Cancer Inst. 95:1608–1615.
491 Hauptmann, M,; Stewart P.A.; Lubin J.H.;
Beane Freeman, L.E.; Hornung, R.W.; Herrick, R.F.;
Hoover, R.N.; Fraumeni, J.F.; Hayes, R.B. 2009.
Mortality from lymph hematopoietic malignancies
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Health effects of formaldehyde in
addition to cancer were reviewed by the
Agency for Toxics Substances and
Disease Registry in 1999 492 and
supplemented in 2010,493 and by the
World Health Organization.494 These
organizations reviewed the scientific
literature concerning health effects
linked to formaldehyde exposure to
evaluate hazards and dose response
relationships and defined exposure
concentrations for minimal risk levels
(MRLs). The health endpoints reviewed
included sensory irritation of eyes and
respiratory tract, pulmonary function,
nasal histopathology, and immune
system effects. In addition, research on
reproductive and developmental effects
and neurological effects were discussed
along with several studies that suggest
that formaldehyde may increase the risk
of asthma—particularly in the young.
EPA released a draft Toxicological
Review of Formaldehyde—Inhalation
Assessment through the IRIS program
for peer review by the National Research
Council (NRC) and public comment in
June 2010.495 The draft assessment
reviewed more recent research from
animal and human studies on cancer
and other health effects. The NRC
released their review report in April
2011.496 EPA is currently developing a
new draft assessment in response to this
review.
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(e) Acetaldehyde
Acetaldehyde is classified in EPA’s
IRIS database as a probable human
carcinogen, based on nasal tumors in
rats, and is considered toxic by the
inhalation, oral, and intravenous
routes.497 The URE in IRIS for
and brain cancer among embalmers exposed to
formaldehyde. Journal of the National Cancer
Institute 101:1696–1708.
492 ATSDR. 1999. Toxicological Profile for
Formaldehyde, U.S. Department of Health and
Human Services (HHS), July 1999.
493 ATSDR. 2010. Addendum to the Toxicological
Profile for Formaldehyde. U.S. Department of
Health and Human Services (HHS), October 2010.
494 IPCS. 2002. Concise International Chemical
Assessment Document 40. Formaldehyde. World
Health Organization.
495 EPA (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency).
2010. Toxicological Review of Formaldehyde (CAS
No. 50–00–0)—Inhalation Assessment: In Support
of Summary Information on the Integrated Risk
Information System (IRIS). External Review Draft.
EPA/635/R–10/002A. U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency, Washington, DC [online].
Available: https://cfpub.epa.gov/ncea/irs_drats/
recordisplay.cfm?deid=223614.
496 NRC (National Research Council). 2011.
Review of the Environmental Protection Agency’s
Draft IRIS Assessment of Formaldehyde.
Washington DC: National Academies Press. https://
books.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=13142.
497 U.S. EPA (1991). Integrated Risk Information
System File of Acetaldehyde. Research and
Development, National Center for Environmental
Assessment, Washington, DC. This material is
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acetaldehyde is 2.2 × 10¥6 per mg/m3.498
Acetaldehyde is reasonably anticipated
to be a human carcinogen by the U.S.
DHHS in the 13th Report on
Carcinogens and is classified as possibly
carcinogenic to humans (Group 2B) by
the IARC.499 500 EPA is currently
conducting a reassessment of cancer risk
from inhalation exposure to
acetaldehyde.
The primary noncancer effects of
exposure to acetaldehyde vapors
include irritation of the eyes, skin, and
respiratory tract.501 In short-term (4
week) rat studies, degeneration of
olfactory epithelium was observed at
various concentration levels of
acetaldehyde exposure.502 503 Data from
these studies were used by EPA to
develop an inhalation reference
concentration of 9 mg/m3. Some
asthmatics have been shown to be a
sensitive subpopulation to decrements
in functional expiratory volume (FEV1
test) and bronchoconstriction upon
acetaldehyde inhalation.504 The agency
is currently conducting a reassessment
of the health hazards from inhalation
exposure to acetaldehyde.
(f) Acrolein
EPA most recently evaluated the
toxicological and health effects
literature related to acrolein in 2003 and
concluded that the human carcinogenic
potential of acrolein could not be
determined because the available data
were inadequate. No information was
available on the carcinogenic effects of
acrolein in humans and the animal data
available electronically at https://www.epa.gov/iris/
subst/0290.htm.
498 U.S. EPA (1991). Integrated Risk Information
System File of Acetaldehyde. This material is
available electronically at https://www.epa.gov/iris/
subst/0290.htm.
499 NTP. (2014). 13th Report on Carcinogens.
Research Triangle Park, NC: U.S. Department of
Health and Human Services, Public Health Service,
National Toxicology Program.
500 International Agency for Research on Cancer
(IARC). (1999). Re-evaluation of some organic
chemicals, hydrazine, and hydrogen peroxide. IARC
Monographs on the Evaluation of Carcinogenic Risk
of Chemical to Humans, Vol 71. Lyon, France.
501 U.S. EPA (1991). Integrated Risk Information
System File of Acetaldehyde. This material is
available electronically at https://www.epa.gov/iris/
subst/0290.htm.
502 U.S. EPA. (2003). Integrated Risk Information
System File of Acrolein. Research and
Development, National Center for Environmental
Assessment, Washington, DC. This material is
available electronically at https://www.epa.gov/iris/
subst/0364.htm.
503 Appleman, L.M., R.A. Woutersen, and V.J.
Feron. (1982). Inhalation toxicity of acetaldehyde in
rats. I. Acute and subacute studies. Toxicology. 23:
293–297.
504 Myou, S.; Fujimura, M.; Nishi K.; Ohka, T.;
and Matsuda, T. (1993) Aerosolized acetaldehyde
induces histamine-mediated bronchoconstriction in
asthmatics. Am. Rev. Respir. Dis. 148(4 Pt 1): 940–
943.
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provided inadequate evidence of
carcinogenicity.505 The IARC
determined in 1995 that acrolein was
not classifiable as to its carcinogenicity
in humans.506
Lesions to the lungs and upper
respiratory tract of rats, rabbits, and
hamsters have been observed after
subchronic exposure to acrolein.507 The
agency has developed an RfC for
acrolein of 0.02 mg/m3 and an RfD of 0.5
mg/kg-day.508 EPA is considering
updating the acrolein assessment with
data that have become available since
the 2003 assessment was completed.
Acrolein is extremely acrid and
irritating to humans when inhaled, with
acute exposure resulting in upper
respiratory tract irritation, mucus
hypersecretion and congestion. The
intense irritancy of this carbonyl has
been demonstrated during controlled
tests in human subjects, who suffer
intolerable eye and nasal mucosal
sensory reactions within minutes of
exposure.509 These data and additional
studies regarding acute effects of human
exposure to acrolein are summarized in
EPA’s 2003 IRIS Human Health
Assessment for acrolein.510 Studies in
humans indicate that levels as low as
0.09 ppm (0.21 mg/m3) for five minutes
may elicit subjective complaints of eye
irritation with increasing concentrations
leading to more extensive eye, nose and
respiratory symptoms. Acute exposures
in animal studies report bronchial
505 U.S. EPA. (2003). Integrated Risk Information
System File of Acrolein. Research and
Development, National Center for Environmental
Assessment, Washington, DC. This material is
available at https://www.epa.gov/iris/subst/
0364.htm.
506 International Agency for Research on Cancer
(IARC). (1995). Monographs on the evaluation of
carcinogenic risk of chemicals to humans, Volume
63. Dry cleaning, some chlorinated solvents and
other industrial chemicals, World Health
Organization, Lyon, France.
507 U.S. EPA. (2003). Integrated Risk Information
System File of Acrolein. Office of Research and
Development, National Center for Environmental
Assessment, Washington, DC. This material is
available at https://www.epa.gov/iris/subst/
0364.htm.
508 U.S. EPA. (2003). Integrated Risk Information
System File of Acrolein. Office of Research and
Development, National Center for Environmental
Assessment, Washington, DC. This material is
available at https://www.epa.gov/iris/subst/
0364.htm.
509 U.S. EPA. (2003) Toxicological review of
acrolein in support of summary information on
Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) National
Center for Environmental Assessment, Washington,
DC. EPA/635/R–03/003. p. 10. Available online at:
https://www.epa.gov/ncea/iris/toxreviews/
0364tr.pdf.
510 U.S. EPA. (2003) Toxicological review of
acrolein in support of summary information on
Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) National
Center for Environmental Assessment, Washington,
DC. EPA/635/R–03/003. Available online at: https://
www.epa.gov/ncea/iris/toxreviews/0364tr.pdf.
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hyper-responsiveness. Based on animal
data (more pronounced respiratory
irritancy in mice with allergic airway
disease in comparison to non-diseased
mice 511) and demonstration of similar
effects in humans (e.g., reduction in
respiratory rate), individuals with
compromised respiratory function (e.g.,
emphysema, asthma) are expected to be
at increased risk of developing adverse
responses to strong respiratory irritants
such as acrolein. EPA does not currently
have an acute reference concentration
for acrolein. The available health effect
reference values for acrolein have been
summarized by EPA and include an
ATSDR MRL for acute exposure to
acrolein of 7 mg/m3 for 1–14 days
exposure; and Reference Exposure Level
(REL) values from the California Office
of Environmental Health Hazard
Assessment (OEHHA) for one-hour and
8-hour exposures of 2.5 mg/m3 and 0.7
mg/m3, respectively.512
(g) Polycyclic Organic Matter
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The term polycyclic organic matter
(POM) defines a broad class of
compounds that includes the polycyclic
aromatic hydrocarbon compounds
(PAHs). One of these compounds,
naphthalene, is discussed separately
below. POM compounds are formed
primarily from combustion and are
present in the atmosphere in gas and
particulate form. Cancer is the major
concern from exposure to POM.
Epidemiologic studies have reported an
increase in lung cancer in humans
exposed to diesel exhaust, coke oven
emissions, roofing tar emissions, and
cigarette smoke; all of these mixtures
contain POM compounds.513 514 Animal
studies have reported respiratory tract
tumors from inhalation exposure to
benzo[a]pyrene and alimentary tract and
liver tumors from oral exposure to
511 Morris J.B., Symanowicz P.T., Olsen J.E., et al.
(2003). Immediate sensory nerve-mediated
respiratory responses to irritants in healthy and
allergic airway-diseased mice. J Appl Physiol
94(4):1563–1571.
512 U.S. EPA. (2009). Graphical Arrays of
Chemical-Specific Health Effect Reference Values
for Inhalation Exposures (Final Report). U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC,
EPA/600/R–09/061, 2009. https://cfpub.epa.gov/
ncea/cfm/recordisplay.cfm?deid=211003.
513 Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease
Registry (ATSDR). (1995). Toxicological profile for
Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs). Atlanta,
GA: U.S. Department of Health and Human
Services, Public Health Service. Available
electronically at https://www.atsdr.cdc.gov/
ToxProfiles/TP.asp?id=122&tid=25.
514 U.S. EPA (2002). Health Assessment
Document for Diesel Engine Exhaust. EPA/600/8–
90/057F Office of Research and Development,
Washington, DC. https://cfpub.epa.gov/ncea/cfm/
recordisplay.cfm?deid=29060.
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benzo[a]pyrene.515 In 1997 EPA
classified seven PAHs (benzo[a]pyrene,
benz[a]anthracene, chrysene,
benzo[b]fluoranthene,
benzo[k]fluoranthene,
dibenz[a,h]anthracene, and
indeno[1,2,3-cd]pyrene) as Group B2,
probable human carcinogens.516 Since
that time, studies have found that
maternal exposures to PAHs in a
population of pregnant women were
associated with several adverse birth
outcomes, including low birth weight
and reduced length at birth, as well as
impaired cognitive development in
preschool children (3 years of age).517 518
These and similar studies are being
evaluated as a part of the ongoing IRIS
assessment of health effects associated
with exposure to benzo[a]pyrene.
(h) Naphthalene
Naphthalene is found in small
quantities in gasoline and diesel fuels.
Naphthalene emissions have been
measured in larger quantities in both
gasoline and diesel exhaust compared
with evaporative emissions from mobile
sources, indicating it is primarily a
product of combustion. Acute (shortterm) exposure of humans to
naphthalene by inhalation, ingestion, or
dermal contact is associated with
hemolytic anemia and damage to the
liver and the nervous system.519
Chronic (long term) exposure of workers
and rodents to naphthalene has been
reported to cause cataracts and retinal
damage.520 EPA released an external
Agency for Research on Cancer
(IARC). (2012). Monographs on the Evaluation of
the Carcinogenic Risk of Chemicals for Humans,
Chemical Agents and Related Occupations. Vol.
100F. Lyon, France.
516 U.S. EPA (1997). Integrated Risk Information
System File of indeno (1,2,3-cd) pyrene. Research
and Development, National Center for
Environmental Assessment, Washington, DC. This
material is available electronically at https://
www.epa.gov/ncea/iris/subst/0457.htm.
517 Perera, F.P.; Rauh, V.; Tsai, W–Y.; et al. (2002).
Effect of transplacental exposure to environmental
pollutants on birth outcomes in a multiethnic
population. Environ Health Perspect. 111: 201–205.
518 Perera, F.P.; Rauh, V.; Whyatt, R.M.; Tsai,
W.Y.; Tang, D.; Diaz, D.; Hoepner, L.; Barr, D.; Tu,
Y.H.; Camann, D.; Kinney, P. (2006). Effect of
prenatal exposure to airborne polycyclic aromatic
hydrocarbons on neurodevelopment in the first 3
years of life among inner-city children. Environ
Health Perspect 114: 1287–1292.
519 U.S. EPA. 1998. Toxicological Review of
Naphthalene (Reassessment of the Inhalation
Cancer Risk), Environmental Protection Agency,
Integrated Risk Information System, Research and
Development, National Center for Environmental
Assessment, Washington, DC. This material is
available electronically at https://www.epa.gov/iris/
subst/0436.htm.
520 U.S. EPA. 1998. Toxicological Review of
Naphthalene (Reassessment of the Inhalation
Cancer Risk), Environmental Protection Agency,
Integrated Risk Information System, Research and
Development, National Center for Environmental
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review draft of a reassessment of the
inhalation carcinogenicity of
naphthalene based on a number of
recent animal carcinogenicity
studies.521 The draft reassessment
completed external peer review.522
Based on external peer review
comments received, a revised draft
assessment that considers all routes of
exposure, as well as cancer and
noncancer effects, is under
development. The external review draft
does not represent official agency
opinion and was released solely for the
purposes of external peer review and
public comment. The National
Toxicology Program listed naphthalene
as ‘‘reasonably anticipated to be a
human carcinogen’’ in 2004 on the basis
of bioassays reporting clear evidence of
carcinogenicity in rats and some
evidence of carcinogenicity in mice.523
California EPA has released a new risk
assessment for naphthalene, and the
IARC has reevaluated naphthalene and
re-classified it as Group 2B: Possibly
carcinogenic to humans.524
Naphthalene also causes a number of
chronic non-cancer effects in animals,
including abnormal cell changes and
growth in respiratory and nasal
tissues.525 The current EPA IRIS
assessment includes noncancer data on
hyperplasia and metaplasia in nasal
tissue that form the basis of the
inhalation RfC of 3 mg/m3.526 The
Assessment, Washington, DC. This material is
available electronically at https://www.epa.gov/iris/
subst/0436.htm.
521 U.S. EPA. (1998). Toxicological Review of
Naphthalene (Reassessment of the Inhalation
Cancer Risk), Environmental Protection Agency,
Integrated Risk Information System, Research and
Development, National Center for Environmental
Assessment, Washington, DC. This material is
available electronically at https://www.epa.gov/iris/
subst/0436.htm.
522 Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education.
(2004). External Peer Review for the IRIS
Reassessment of the Inhalation Carcinogenicity of
Naphthalene. August 2004. https://cfpub.epa.gov/
ncea/cfm/recordisplay.cfm?deid=84403.
523 NTP. (2014). 13th Report on Carcinogens. U.S.
Department of Health and Human Services, Public
Health Service, National Toxicology Program.
524 International Agency for Research on Cancer
(IARC). (2002). Monographs on the Evaluation of
the Carcinogenic Risk of Chemicals for Humans.
Vol. 82. Lyon, France.
525 U.S. EPA. (1998). Toxicological Review of
Naphthalene, Environmental Protection Agency,
Integrated Risk Information System, Research and
Development, National Center for Environmental
Assessment, Washington, DC. This material is
available electronically at https://www.epa.gov/iris/
subst/0436.htm.
526 U.S. EPA. (1998). Toxicological Review of
Naphthalene. Environmental Protection Agency,
Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS), Research
and Development, National Center for
Environmental Assessment, Washington, DC https://
www.epa.gov/iris/subst/0436.htm.
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ATSDR MRL for acute exposure to
naphthalene is 0.6 mg/kg/day.
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(i) Other Air Toxics
In addition to the compounds
described above, other compounds in
gaseous hydrocarbon and PM emissions
from motor vehicles will be affected by
this action. Mobile source air toxic
compounds that will potentially be
impacted include ethylbenzene,
propionaldehyde, toluene, and xylene.
Information regarding the health effects
of these compounds can be found in
EPA’s IRIS database.527
(8) Exposure and Health Effects
Associated With Traffic
Locations in close proximity to major
roadways generally have elevated
concentrations of many air pollutants
emitted from motor vehicles. Hundreds
of such studies have been published in
peer-reviewed journals, concluding that
concentrations of CO, NO, NO2,
benzene, aldehydes, particulate matter,
black carbon, and many other
compounds are elevated in ambient air
within approximately 300–600 meters
(about 1,000–2,000 feet) of major
roadways. Highest concentrations of
most pollutants emitted directly by
motor vehicles are found at locations
within 50 meters (about 165 feet) of the
edge of a roadway’s traffic lanes.
A recent large-scale review of air
quality measurements in vicinity of
major roadways between 1978 and 2008
concluded that the pollutants with the
steepest concentration gradients in
vicinities of roadways were CO,
ultrafine particles, metals, elemental
carbon (EC), NO, NOX, and several
VOCs.528 These pollutants showed a
large reduction in concentrations within
100 meters downwind of the roadway.
Pollutants that showed more gradual
reductions with distance from roadways
included benzene, NO2, PM2.5, and
PM10. In the review article, results
varied based on the method of statistical
analysis used to determine the trend.
For pollutants with relatively high
background concentrations relative to
near-road concentrations, detecting
concentration gradients can be difficult.
For example, many aldehydes have high
background concentrations as a result of
photochemical breakdown of precursors
from many different organic
compounds. This can make detection of
gradients around roadways and other
primary emission sources difficult.
527 U.S. EPA Integrated Risk Information System
(IRIS) database is available at: www.epa.gov/iris.
528 Karner, A.A.; Eisinger, D.S.; Niemeier, D.A.
(2010). Near-roadway air quality: Synthesizing the
findings from real-world data. Environ Sci Technol
44: 5334–5344.
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However, several studies have measured
aldehydes in multiple weather
conditions, and found higher
concentrations of many carbonyls
downwind of roadways.529 530 These
findings suggest a substantial roadway
source of these carbonyls.
In the past 15 years, many studies
have been published with results
reporting that populations who live,
work, or go to school near high-traffic
roadways experience higher rates of
numerous adverse health effects,
compared to populations far away from
major roads.531 In addition, numerous
studies have found adverse health
effects associated with spending time in
traffic, such as commuting or walking
along high-traffic roadways.532 533 534 535
The health outcomes with the strongest
evidence linking them with trafficassociated air pollutants are respiratory
effects, particularly in asthmatic
children, and cardiovascular effects.
Numerous reviews of this body of
health literature have been published as
well. In 2010, an expert panel of the
Health Effects Institute (HEI) published
a review of hundreds of exposure,
epidemiology, and toxicology
studies.536 The panel rated how the
evidence for each type of health
outcome supported a conclusion of a
causal association with traffic529 Liu, W.; Zhang, J.; Kwon, J.l; et l. (2006).
Concentrations and source characteristics of
airborne carbonyl comlbs measured outside urban
residences. J Air Waste Manage Assoc 56: 1196–
1204.
530 Cahill, T.M.; Charles, M.J.; Seaman, V.Y.
(2010). Development and application of a sensitive
method to determine concentrations of acrolein and
other carbonyls in ambient air. Health Effects
Institute Research Report 149.Available at https://
dx.doi.org.
531 In the widely-used PubMed database of health
publications, between January 1, 1990 and August
18, 2011, 605 publications contained the keywords
‘‘traffic, pollution, epidemiology,’’ with
approximately half the studies published after 2007.
532 Laden, F.; Hart, J.E.; Smith, T.J.; Davis, M.E.;
Garshick, E. (2007) Cause-specific mortality in the
unionized U.S. trucking industry. Environmental
Health Perspect 115:1192–1196.
533 Peters, A.; von Klot, S.; Heier, M.;
¨
Trentinaglia, I.; Hormann, A.; Wichmann, H.E.;
¨
Lowel, H. (2004) Exposure to traffic and the onset
of myocardial infarction. New England J Med 351:
1721–1730.
534 Zanobetti, A.; Stone, P.H.; Spelzer, F.E.;
Schwartz, J.D.; Coull, B.A.; Suh, H.H.; Nearling,
B.D.; Mittleman, M.A.; Verrier, R.L.; Gold, D.R.
(2009) T-wave alternans, air pollution and traffic in
high-risk subjects. Am J Cardiol 104: 665–670.
535 Dubowsky Adar, S.; Adamkiewicz, G.; Gold,
D.R.; Schwartz, J.; Coull, B.A.; Suh, H. (2007)
Ambient and microenvironmental particles and
exhaled nitric oxide before and after a group bus
trip. Environ Health Perspect 115: 507–512.
536 Health Effects Institute Panel on the Health
Effects of Traffic-Related Air Pollution. (2010).
Traffic-related air pollution: A critical review of the
literature on emissions, exposure, and health
effects. HEI Special Report 17. Available at https://
www.healtheffects.org.
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associated air pollution as either
‘‘sufficient,’’ ‘‘suggestive but not
sufficient,’’ or ‘‘inadequate and
insufficient.’’ The panel categorized
evidence of a causal association for
exacerbation of childhood asthma as
‘‘sufficient.’’ The panel categorized
evidence of a causal association for new
onset asthma as between ‘‘sufficient’’
and as ‘‘suggestive but not sufficient.’’
‘‘Suggestive of a causal association’’ was
how the panel categorized evidence
linking traffic-associated air pollutants
with exacerbation of adult respiratory
symptoms and lung function decrement.
It categorized as ‘‘inadequate and
insufficient’’ evidence of a causal
relationship between traffic-related air
pollution and health care utilization for
respiratory problems, new onset adult
asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary
disease (COPD), nonasthmatic
respiratory allergy, and cancer in adults
and children. Other literature reviews
have been published with conclusions
generally similar to the HEI
panel’s.537 538 539 540 However,
researchers from the U.S. Centers for
Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)
recently published a systematic review
and meta-analysis of studies evaluating
the risk of childhood leukemia
associated with traffic exposure, and
reported positive associations between
‘‘postnatal’’ proximity to traffic and
leukemia risks, but no such association
for ‘‘prenatal’’ exposures.541
Health outcomes with few
publications suggest the possibility of
other effects still lacking sufficient
evidence to draw definitive conclusions.
Among these outcomes with a small
number of positive studies are
neurological impacts (e.g., autism and
reduced cognitive function) and
reproductive outcomes (e.g., preterm
birth, low birth weight).542 543 544 545
537 Boothe, V.L.; Shendell, D.G. (2008). Potential
health effects associated with residential proximity
to freeways and primary roads: Review of scientific
literature, 1999–2006. J Environ Health 70: 33–41.
538 Salam, M.T.; Islam, T.; Gilliland, F.D. (2008).
Recent evidence for adverse effects of residential
proximity to traffic sources on asthma. Curr Opin
Pulm Med 14: 3–8.
539 Sun, X.; Zhang, S.; Ma, X. (2014) No
association between traffic density and risk of
childhood leukemia: A meta-analysis. Asia Pac J
Cancer Prev 15: 5229–5232.
540 Raaschou-Nielsen, O.; Reynolds, P. (2006). Air
pollution and childhood cancer: A review of the
epidemiological literature. Int J Cancer 118: 2920–
9.
541 Boothe, V.L.; Boehmer, T.K.; Wendel, A.M.;
Yip, F.Y. (2014) Residential traffic exposure and
childhood leukemia: A systematic review and metaanalysis. Am J Prev Med 46: 413–422.
542 Volk, H.E.; Hertz-Picciotto, I.; Delwiche, L.; et
al. (2011). Residential proximity to freeways and
autism in the CHARGE study. Environ Health
Perspect 119: 873–877.
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In addition to health outcomes,
particularly cardiopulmonary effects,
conclusions of numerous studies
suggest mechanisms by which trafficrelated air pollution affects health.
Numerous studies indicate that nearroadway exposures may increase
systemic inflammation, affecting organ
systems, including blood vessels and
lungs.546 547 548 549 Long-term exposures
in near-road environments have been
associated with inflammation-associated
conditions, such as atherosclerosis and
asthma.550 551 552
Several studies suggest that some
factors may increase susceptibility to
the effects of traffic-associated air
pollution. Several studies have found
stronger respiratory associations in
children experiencing chronic social
stress, such as in violent neighborhoods
or in homes with high family
stress.553 554 555
543 Franco-Suglia, S.; Gryparis, A.; Wright, R.O.;
et al. (2007). Association of black carbon with
cognition among children in a prospective birth
cohort study. Am J Epidemiol. doi: 10.1093/aje/
kwm308. [Online at https://dx.doi.org].
544 Power, M.C.; Weisskopf, M.G.; Alexeef, S.E.; et
al. (2011). Traffic-related air pollution and cognitive
function in a cohort of older men. Environ Health
Perspect 2011: 682–687.
545 Wu, J.; Wilhelm, M.; Chung, J.; et al. (2011).
Comparing exposure assessment methods for trafficrelated air pollution in an adverse pregnancy
outcome study. Environ Res 111: 685–6692.
546 Riediker, M. (2007). Cardiovascular effects of
fine particulate matter components in highway
patrol officers. Inhal Toxicol 19: 99–105. doi:
10.1080/08958370701495238. Available at https://
dx.doi.org.
547 Alexeef, S.E.; Coull, B.A.; Gryparis, A.; et al.
(2011). Medium-term exposure to traffic-related air
pollution and markers of inflammation and
endothelial function. Environ Health Perspect 119:
481–486. doi:10.1289/ehp.1002560. Available at
https://dx.doi.org.
548 Eckel. S.P.; Berhane, K.; Salam, M.T.; et al.
(2011). Traffic-related pollution exposure and
exhaled nitric oxide in the Children’s Health Study.
Environ Health Perspect (IN PRESS). doi:10.1289/
ehp.1103516. Available at https://dx.doi.org.
549 Zhang, J.; McCreanor, J.E.; Cullinan, P.; et al.
(2009). Health effects of real-world exposure diesel
exhaust in persons with asthma. Res Rep Health
Effects Inst 138. [Online at https://
www.healtheffects.org].
550 Adar, S.D.; Klein, R.; Klein, E.K.; et al. (2010).
Air pollution and the microvasculatory: A crosssectional assessment of in vivo retinal images in the
population-based Multi-Ethnic Study of
Atherosclerosis. PLoS Med 7(11): E1000372.
doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1000372. Available at
https://dx.doi.org.
551 Kan, H.; Heiss, G.; Rose, K.M.; et al. (2008).
Proxpective analysis of traffic exposure as a risk
factor for incident coronary heart disease: The
Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study.
Environ Health Perspect 116: 1463–1468.
doi:10.1289/ehp.11290. Available at https://
dx.doi.org.
552 McConnell, R.; Islam, T.; Shankardass, K.; et
al. (2010). Childhood incident asthma and trafficrelated air pollution at home and school. Environ
Health Perspect 1021–1026.
553 Islam, T.; Urban, R.; Gauderman, W.J.; et al.
(2011). Parental stress increases the detrimental
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The risks associated with residence,
workplace, or schools near major roads
are of potentially high public health
significance due to the large population
in such locations. According to the 2009
American Housing Survey, over 22
million homes (17.0 percent of all U.S.
housing units) were located within 300
feet of an airport, railroad, or highway
with four or more lanes. This
corresponds to a population of more
than 50 million U.S. residents in close
proximity to high-traffic roadways or
other transportation sources. Based on
2010 Census data, a 2013 publication
estimated that 19 percent of the U.S.
population (over 59 million people)
lived within 500 meters of roads with at
least 25,000 annual average daily traffic
(AADT), while about 3.2 percent of the
population lived within 100 meters
(about 300 feet) of such roads.556
Another 2013 study estimated that 3.7
percent of the U.S. population (about
11.3 million people) lived within 150
meters (about 500 feet) of interstate
highways, or other freeways and
expressways.557 As discussed in Section
VIII. B. (9), on average, populations near
major roads have higher fractions of
minority residents and lower
socioeconomic status. Furthermore, on
average, Americans spend more than an
hour traveling each day, bringing nearly
all residents into a high-exposure
microenvironment for part of the day.
In light of these concerns, EPA has
required and is working with states to
ensure that air quality monitors be
placed near high-traffic roadways for
determining NAAQS compliance for
CO, NO2, and PM2.5 (in addition to those
existing monitors located in
neighborhoods and other locations
farther away from pollution sources).
Near-roadway monitors for NO2 begin
operation between 2014 and 2017 in
Core Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs)
with population of at least 500,000.
Monitors for CO and PM2.5 begin
operation between 2015 and 2017.
effect of traffic exposure on children’s lung
function. Am J Respir Crit Care Med (In press).
554 Clougherty, J.E.; Levy, J.I.; Kubzansky, L.D.; et
al. (2007). Synergistic effects of traffic-related air
pollution and exposure to violence on urban asthma
etiology. Environ Health Perspect 115: 1140–1146.
555 Chen, E.; Schrier, H.M.; Strunk, R.C.; et al.
(2008). Chronic traffic-related air pollution and
stress interact to predict biologic and clinical
outcomes in asthma. Environ Health Perspect 116:
970–5.
556 Rowangould, G.M. (2013) A census of the U.S.
near-roadway population: Public health and
environmental justice considerations.
Transportation Research Part D 25: 59–67.
557 Boehmer, T.K.; Foster, S.L.; Henry, J.R.;
Woghiren-Akinnifesi, E.L.; Yip, F.Y. (2013)
Residential proximity to major highways—United
States, 2010. Morbidity and Mortality Weekly
Report 62(3); 46–50.
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These monitors will further our
understanding of exposure in these
locations.
EPA and DOT continue to research
near-road air quality, including the
types of pollutants found in high
concentrations near major roads and
health problems associated with the
mixture of pollutants near roads.
(9) Environmental Justice
Environmental justice (EJ) is a
principle asserting that all people
deserve fair treatment and meaningful
involvement with respect to
environmental laws, regulations, and
policies. EPA seeks to provide the same
degree of protection from environmental
health hazards for all people. DOT
shares this goal and is informed about
the potential environmental impacts of
its rulemakings through its NEPA
process (see NHTSA’s DEIS). As
referenced below, numerous studies
have found that some environmental
hazards are more prevalent in areas
where racial/ethnic minorities and
people with low socioeconomic status
(SES), represent a higher fraction of the
population compared with the general
population.
As discussed in Section VIII. B. (8) of
this document and NHTSA’s DEIS,
concentrations of many air pollutants
are elevated near high-traffic roadways.
If minority populations and low-income
populations disproportionately live near
such roads, then an issue of EJ may be
present. We reviewed existing scholarly
literature examining the potential for
disproportionate exposure among
minorities and people with low SES and
we conducted our own evaluation of
two national datasets: The U.S. Census
Bureau’s American Housing Survey for
calendar year 2009 and the U.S.
Department of Education’s database of
school locations.
Publications that address EJ issues
generally report that populations living
near major roadways (and other types of
transportation infrastructure) tend to be
composed of larger fractions of
nonwhite residents. People living in
neighborhoods near such sources of air
pollution also tend to be lower in
income than people living elsewhere.
Numerous studies evaluating the
demographics and socioeconomic status
of populations or schools near roadways
have found that they include a greater
percentage of minority residents, as well
as lower SES (indicated by variables
such as median household income).
Locations in these studies include Los
Angeles, CA; Seattle, WA; Wayne
County, MI; Orange County, FL; and the
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State of California 558 559 560 561 562 563
Such disparities may be due to multiple
factors.564
People with low SES often live in
neighborhoods with multiple stressors
and health risk factors, including
reduced health insurance coverage rates,
higher smoking and drug use rates,
limited access to fresh food, visible
neighborhood violence, and elevated
rates of obesity and some diseases such
as asthma, diabetes, and ischemic heart
disease. Although questions remain,
several studies find stronger
associations between air pollution and
health in locations with such chronic
neighborhood stress, suggesting that
populations in these areas may be more
susceptible to the effects of air
pollution.565 566 567 568 Household-level
stressors such as parental smoking and
558 Marshall, J.D. (2008) Environmental
inequality: Air pollution exposures in California’s
South Coast Air Basin.
559 Su, J.G.; Larson, T.; Gould, T.; Cohen, M.;
Buzzelli, M. (2010) Transboundary air pollution
and environmental justice: Vancouver and Seattle
compared. GeoJournal 57: 595–608. doi:10.1007/
s10708–009–9269–6 [Online at https://dx.doi.org].
560 Chakraborty, J.; Zandbergen, P.A. (2007)
Children at risk: Measuring racial/ethnic disparities
in potential exposure to air pollution at school and
home. J Epidemiol Community Health 61: 1074–
1079. doi: 10.1136/jech.2006.054130 [Online at
https://dx.doi.org].
561 Green, R.S.; Smorodinsky, S.; Kim, J.J.;
McLaughlin, R.; Ostro, B. (2003) Proximity of
California public schools to busy roads. Environ
Health Perspect 112: 61–66. doi:10.1289/ehp.6566
[https://dx.doi.org].
562 Wu, Y.; Batterman, S.A. (2006) Proximity of
schools in Detroit, Michigan to automobile and
truck traffic. J Exposure Sci & Environ Epidemiol.
doi:10.1038/sj.jes.7500484 [Online at https://
dx.doi.org].
563 Su, J.G.; Jerrett, M.; de Nazelle, A.; Wolch, J.
(2011) Does exposure to air pollution in urban parks
have socioeconomic, racial, or ethnic gradients?
Environ Res 111: 319–328.
564 Depro, B.; Timmins, C. (2008) Mobility and
environmental equity: Do housing choices
determine exposure to air pollution? North Caroline
State University Center for Environmental and
Resource Economic Policy.
565 Clougherty, J.E.; Kubzansky, L.D. (2009) A
framework for examining social stress and
susceptibility to air pollution in respiratory health.
Environ Health Perspect 117: 1351–1358.
Doi:10.1289/ehp.0900612 [Online at https://
dx.doi.org].
566 Clougherty, J.E.; Levy, J.I.; Kubzansky, L.D.;
Ryan, P.B.; Franco Suglia, S.; Jacobson Canner, M.;
Wright, R.J. (2007) Synergistic effects of trafficrelated air pollution and exposure to violence on
urban asthma etiology. Environ Health Perspect
115: 1140–1146. doi:10.1289/ehp.9863 [Online at
https://dx.doi.org].
567 Finkelstein, M.M.; Jerrett, M.; DeLuca, P.;
Finkelstein, N.; Verma, D.K.; Chapman, K.; Sears,
M.R. (2003) Relation between income, air pollution
and mortality: a cohort study. Canadian Med Assn
J 169: 397–402.
568 Shankardass, K.; McConnell, R.; Jerrett, M.;
Milam, J.; Richardson, J.; Berhane, K. (2009)
Parental stress increases the effect of traffic-related
air pollution on childhood asthma incidence. Proc
Natl Acad Sci 106: 12406–12411. doi:10.1073/
pnas.0812910106 [Online at https://dx.doi.org].
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relationship stress also may increase
susceptibility to the adverse effects of
air pollution.569 570
More recently, three publications
report nationwide analyses that
compare the demographic patterns of
people who do or do not live near major
roadways.571 572 573 All three of these
studies found that people living near
major roadways are more likely to be
minorities or low in SES. They also
found that the outcomes of their
analyses varied between regions within
the U.S. However, only one such study
looked at whether such conclusions
were confounded by living in a location
with higher population density and how
demographics differ between locations
nationwide. In general, it found that
higher density areas have higher
proportions of low income and minority
residents.
We analyzed two national databases
that allowed us to evaluate whether
homes and schools were located near a
major road and whether disparities in
exposure may be occurring in these
environments. The American Housing
Survey (AHS) includes descriptive
statistics of over 70,000 housing units
across the nation. The study survey is
conducted every two years by the U.S.
Census Bureau. The second database we
analyzed was the U.S. Department of
Education’s Common Core of Data,
which includes enrollment and location
information for schools across the U.S.
In analyzing the 2009 AHS, we
focused on whether or not a housing
unit was located within 300 feet of ‘‘4or-more lane highway, railroad, or
airport.’’ 574 We analyzed whether there
569 Lewis, A.S.; Sax, S.N.; Wason, S.C.;
Campleman, S.L (2011) Non-chemical stressors and
cumulative risk assessment: an overview of current
initiatives and potential air pollutant interactions.
Int J Environ Res Public Health 8: 2020–2073.
Doi:10.3390/ijerph8062020 [Online at https://
dx.doi.org].
570 Rosa, M.J.; Jung, K.H.; Perzanowski, M.S.;
Kelvin, E.A.; Darling, K.W.; Camann, D.E.; Chillrud,
S.N.; Whyatt, R.M.; Kinney, P.L.; Perera, F.P.;
Miller, R.L (2010) Prenatal exposure to polycyclic
aromatic hydrocarbons, environmental tobacco
smoke and asthma. Respir Med (In press).
doi:10.1016/j.rmed.2010.11.022 [Online at https://
dx.doi.org].
571 Rowangould, G.M. (2013) A census of the U.S.
near-roadway population: public health and
environmental justice considerations.
Transportation Research Part D; 59–67.
572 Tian, N.; Xue, J.; Barzyk. T.M. (2013)
Evaluating socioeconomic and racial differences in
traffic-related metrics in the United States using a
GIS approach. J Exposure Sci Environ Epidemiol
23: 215–222.
573 Boehmer, T.K.; Foster, S.L.; Henry, J.R.;
Woghiren-Akinnifesi, E.L.; Yip, F.Y. (2013)
Residential proximity to major highways—United
States, 2010. Morbidity and Mortality Weekly
Report 62(3): 46–50.
574 This variable primarily represents roadway
proximity. According to the Central Intelligence
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were differences between households in
such locations compared with those in
locations farther from these
transportation facilities.575 We included
other variables, such as land use
category, region of country, and housing
type. We found that homes with a
nonwhite householder were 22–34
percent more likely to be located within
300 feet of these large transportation
facilities than homes with white
householders. Homes with a Hispanic
householder were 17–33 percent more
likely to be located within 300 feet of
these large transportation facilities than
homes with non-Hispanic householders.
Households near large transportation
facilities were, on average, lower in
income and educational attainment,
more likely to be a rental property and
located in an urban area compared with
households more distant from
transportation facilities.
In examining schools near major
roadways, we examined the Common
Core of Data (CCD) from the U.S.
Department of Education, which
includes information on all public
elementary and secondary schools and
school districts nationwide.576 To
determine school proximities to major
roadways, we used a geographic
information system (GIS) to map each
school and roadways based on the U.S.
Census’s TIGER roadway file.577 We
found that minority students were
overrepresented at schools within 200
meters of the largest roadways, and that
schools within 200 meters of the largest
roadways also had higher than expected
numbers of students eligible for free or
reduced-price lunches. For example,
Black students represent 22 percent of
students at schools located within 200
meters of a primary road, whereas Black
students represent 17 percent of
students in all U.S. schools. Hispanic
students represent 30 percent of
students at schools located within 200
meters of a primary road, whereas
Hispanic students represent 22 percent
of students in all U.S. schools.
Overall, there is substantial evidence
that people who live or attend school
near major roadways are more likely to
be of a minority race, Hispanic
Agency’s World Factbook, in 2010, the United
States had 6,506,204 km or roadways, 224,792 km
of railways, and 15,079 airports. Highways thus
represent the overwhelming majority of
transportation facilities described by this factor in
the AHS.
575 Bailey, C. (2011) Demographic and Social
Patterns in Housing Units Near Large Highways and
other Transportation Sources. Memorandum to
docket.
576 https://nces.ed.gov/ccd/.
577 Pedde, M.; Bailey, C. (2011) Identification of
Schools within 200 Meters of U.S. Primary and
Secondary Roads. Memorandum to the docket.
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ethnicity, and/or low SES. The emission
reductions from these proposed rules
would likely result in widespread air
quality improvements, but the impact
on pollution levels in close proximity to
roadways would be most direct. Thus,
these proposed rules would likely help
in mitigating the disparity in racial,
ethnic, and economically-based
exposures.
C. Environmental Effects of Non-GHG
Pollutants
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(1) Visibility
Visibility can be defined as the degree
to which the atmosphere is transparent
to visible light.578 Visibility impairment
is caused by light scattering and
absorption by suspended particles and
gases. Visibility is important because it
has direct significance to people’s
enjoyment of daily activities in all parts
of the country. Individuals value good
visibility for the well-being it provides
them directly, where they live and
work, and in places where they enjoy
recreational opportunities. Visibility is
also highly valued in significant natural
areas, such as national parks and
wilderness areas, and special emphasis
is given to protecting visibility in these
areas. For more information on visibility
see the final 2009 p.m. ISA.579
EPA is working to address visibility
impairment. Reductions in air pollution
from implementation of various
programs associated with the Clean Air
Act Amendments of 1990 (CAAA)
provisions have resulted in substantial
improvements in visibility, and will
continue to do so in the future. Because
trends in haze are closely associated
with trends in particulate sulfate and
nitrate due to the simple relationship
between their concentration and light
extinction, visibility trends have
improved as emissions of SO2 and NOX
have decreased over time due to air
pollution regulations such as the Acid
Rain Program.580
In the Clean Air Act Amendments of
1977, Congress recognized visibility’s
value to society by establishing a
578 National Research Council, (1993). Protecting
Visibility in National Parks and Wilderness Areas.
National Academy of Sciences Committee on Haze
in National Parks and Wilderness Areas. National
Academy Press, Washington, DC. This book can be
viewed on the National Academy Press Web site at
https://www.nap.edu/books/0309048443/html/.
579 U.S. EPA. (2009). Integrated Science
Assessment for Particulate Matter (Final Report).
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,
Washington, DC, EPA/600/R–08/139F.
580 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S.
EPA). 2009. Integrated Science Assessment for
Particulate Matter (Final Report). EPA–600–R–08–
139F. National Center for Environmental
Assessment—RTP Division. December. Available on
the Internet at .
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national goal to protect national parks
and wilderness areas from visibility
impairment caused by manmade
pollution.581 In 1999, EPA finalized the
regional haze program to protect the
visibility in Mandatory Class I Federal
areas.582 There are 156 national parks,
forests and wilderness areas categorized
as Mandatory Class I Federal areas.583
These areas are defined in CAA Section
162 as those national parks exceeding
6,000 acres, wilderness areas and
memorial parks exceeding 5,000 acres,
and all international parks which were
in existence on August 7, 1977.
EPA has also concluded that PM2.5
causes adverse effects on visibility in
other areas that are not protected by the
Regional Haze Rule, depending on PM2.5
concentrations and other factors such as
dry chemical composition and relative
humidity (i.e., an indicator of the water
composition of the particles). EPA
revised the PM2.5 standards in December
2012 and established a target level of
protection that is expected to be met
through attainment of the existing
secondary standards for PM2.5.
(2) Plant and Ecosystem Effects of
Ozone
The welfare effects of ozone can be
observed across a variety of scales, i.e.
subcellular, cellular, leaf, whole plant,
population and ecosystem. Ozone
effects that begin at small spatial scales,
such as the leaf of an individual plant,
when they occur at sufficient
magnitudes (or to a sufficient degree)
can result in effects being propagated
along a continuum to larger and larger
spatial scales. For example, effects at the
individual plant level, such as altered
rates of leaf gas exchange, growth and
reproduction can, when widespread,
result in broad changes in ecosystems,
such as productivity, carbon storage,
water cycling, nutrient cycling, and
community composition.
Ozone can produce both acute and
chronic injury in sensitive species
depending on the concentration level
and the duration of the exposure.584 In
those sensitive species,585 effects from
repeated exposure to ozone throughout
the growing season of the plant tend to
accumulate, so that even low
concentrations experienced for a longer
duration have the potential to create
Section 169(a) of the Clean Air Act.
FR 35714, July 1, 1999.
583 62 FR 38680–38681, July 18, 1997.
584 73 FR 16486, March 27, 2008.
585 73 FR 16491, March 27, 2008. Only a small
percentage of all the plant species growing within
the U.S. (over 43,000 species have been catalogued
in the USDA PLANTS database) have been studied
with respect to ozone sensitivity.
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chronic stress on vegetation.586 Ozone
damage to sensitive species includes
impaired photosynthesis and visible
injury to leaves. The impairment of
photosynthesis, the process by which
the plant makes carbohydrates (its
source of energy and food), can lead to
reduced crop yields, timber production,
and plant productivity and growth.
Impaired photosynthesis can also lead
to a reduction in root growth and
carbohydrate storage below ground,
resulting in other, more subtle plant and
ecosystems impacts.587 These latter
impacts include increased susceptibility
of plants to insect attack, disease, harsh
weather, interspecies competition and
overall decreased plant vigor. The
adverse effects of ozone on areas with
sensitive species could potentially lead
to species shifts and loss from the
affected ecosystems,588 resulting in a
loss or reduction in associated
ecosystem goods and services.
Additionally, visible ozone injury to
leaves can result in a loss of aesthetic
value in areas of special scenic
significance like national parks and
wilderness areas and reduced use of
sensitive ornamentals in landscaping.589
The Integrated Science Assessment
(ISA) for Ozone presents more detailed
information on how ozone effects
vegetation and ecosystems.590 The ISA
concludes that ambient concentrations
of ozone are associated with a number
of adverse welfare effects and
characterizes the weight of evidence for
different effects associated with
ozone.591 The ISA concludes that visible
foliar injury effects on vegetation,
586 The concentration at which ozone levels
overwhelm a plant’s ability to detoxify or
compensate for oxidant exposure varies. Thus,
whether a plant is classified as sensitive or tolerant
depends in part on the exposure levels being
considered. Chapter 9, Section 9.3.4 of U.S. EPA,
2013 Integrated Science Assessment for Ozone and
Related Photochemical Oxidants. Office of Research
and Development/National Center for
Environmental Assessment. U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency. EPA 600/R–10/076F.
587 73 FR 16492, March 27, 2008.
588 73 FR 16493–16494, March 27, 2008, Ozone
impacts could be occurring in areas where plant
species sensitive to ozone have not yet been studied
or identified.
589 73 FR 16490–16497, March 27, 2008.
590 U.S. EPA. Integrated Science Assessment of
Ozone and Related Photochemical Oxidants (Final
Report). U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,
Washington, DC, EPA/600/R–10/076F, 2013. The
ISA is available at https://cfpub.epa.gov/ncea/isa/
recordisplay.cfm?deid=247492#Download.
591 The Ozone ISA evaluates the evidence
associated with different ozone related health and
welfare effects, assigning one of five ‘‘weight of
evidence’’ determinations: causal relationship,
likely to be a causal relationship, suggestive of a
causal relationship, inadequate to infer a causal
relationship, and not likely to be a causal
relationship. For more information on these levels
of evidence, please refer to Table II of the ISA.
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reduced vegetation growth, reduced
productivity in terrestrial ecosystems,
reduced yield and quality of agricultural
crops, and alteration of below-ground
biogeochemical cycles are causally
associated with exposure to ozone. It
also concludes that reduced carbon
sequestration in terrestrial ecosystems,
alteration of terrestrial ecosystem water
cycling, and alteration of terrestrial
community composition are likely to be
causally associated with exposure to
ozone.
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(3) Atmospheric Deposition
Wet and dry deposition of ambient
particulate matter delivers a complex
mixture of metals (e.g., mercury, zinc,
lead, nickel, aluminum, and cadmium),
organic compounds (e.g., polycyclic
organic matter, dioxins, and furans) and
inorganic compounds (e.g., nitrate,
sulfate) to terrestrial and aquatic
ecosystems. The chemical form of the
compounds deposited depends on a
variety of factors including ambient
conditions (e.g., temperature, humidity,
oxidant levels) and the sources of the
material. Chemical and physical
transformations of the compounds occur
in the atmosphere as well as the media
onto which they deposit. These
transformations in turn influence the
fate, bioavailability and potential
toxicity of these compounds.
Adverse impacts to human health and
the environment can occur when
particulate matter is deposited to soils,
water, and biota.592 Deposition of heavy
metals or other toxics may lead to the
human ingestion of contaminated fish,
impairment of drinking water, damage
to terrestrial, freshwater and marine
ecosystem components, and limits to
recreational uses. Atmospheric
deposition has been identified as a key
component of the environmental and
human health hazard posed by several
pollutants including mercury, dioxin
and PCBs.593
The ecological effects of acidifying
deposition and nutrient enrichment are
detailed in the Integrated Science
Assessment for Oxides of Nitrogen and
Sulfur-Ecological Criteria.594
Atmospheric deposition of nitrogen and
sulfur contributes to acidification,
592 U.S. EPA. Integrated Science Assessment for
Particulate Matter (Final Report). U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC,
EPA/600/R–08/139F, 2009.
593 U.S. EPA. (2000). Deposition of Air Pollutants
to the Great Waters: Third Report to Congress.
Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards. EPA–
453/R–00–0005.
594 NO and SO secondary ISA594 U.S. EPA.
X
X
Integrated Science Assessment (ISA) for Oxides of
Nitrogen and Sulfur Ecological Criteria (Final
Report). U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,
Washington, DC, EPA/600/R–08/082F, 2008.
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altering biogeochemistry and affecting
animal and plant life in terrestrial and
aquatic ecosystems across the United
States. The sensitivity of terrestrial and
aquatic ecosystems to acidification from
nitrogen and sulfur deposition is
predominantly governed by geology.
Prolonged exposure to excess nitrogen
and sulfur deposition in sensitive areas
acidifies lakes, rivers and soils.
Increased acidity in surface waters
creates inhospitable conditions for biota
and affects the abundance and
biodiversity of fishes, zooplankton and
macroinvertebrates and ecosystem
function. Over time, acidifying
deposition also removes essential
nutrients from forest soils, depleting the
capacity of soils to neutralize future
acid loadings and negatively affecting
forest sustainability. Major effects in
forests include a decline in sensitive
tree species, such as red spruce (Picea
rubens) and sugar maple (Acer
saccharum). In addition to the role
nitrogen deposition plays in
acidification, nitrogen deposition also
leads to nutrient enrichment and altered
biogeochemical cycling. In aquatic
systems increased nitrogen can alter
species assemblages and cause
eutrophication. In terrestrial systems
nitrogen loading can lead to loss of
nitrogen sensitive lichen species,
decreased biodiversity of grasslands,
meadows and other sensitive habitats,
and increased potential for invasive
species. For a broader explanation of the
topics treated here, refer to the
description in Chapter 8.1.2.3 of the
RIA.
Building materials including metals,
stones, cements, and paints undergo
natural weathering processes from
exposure to environmental elements
(e.g., wind, moisture, temperature
fluctuations, sunlight, etc.). Pollution
can worsen and accelerate these effects.
Deposition of PM is associated with
both physical damage (materials damage
effects) and impaired aesthetic qualities
(soiling effects). Wet and dry deposition
of PM can physically affect materials,
adding to the effects of natural
weathering processes, by potentially
promoting or accelerating the corrosion
of metals, by degrading paints and by
deteriorating building materials such as
stone, concrete and marble.595 The
effects of PM are exacerbated by the
presence of acidic gases and can be
additive or synergistic due to the
595 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S.
EPA). 2009. Integrated Science Assessment for
Particulate Matter (Final Report). EPA–600–R–08–
139F. National Center for Environmental
Assessment—RTP Division. December. Available on
the Internet at .
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complex mixture of pollutants in the air
and surface characteristics of the
material. Acidic deposition has been
shown to have an effect on materials
including zinc/galvanized steel and
other metal, carbonate stone (as
monuments and building facings), and
surface coatings (paints).596 The effects
on historic buildings and outdoor works
of art are of particular concern because
of the uniqueness and irreplaceability of
many of these objects.
(4) Environmental Effects of Air Toxics
Emissions from producing,
transporting and combusting fuel
contribute to ambient levels of
pollutants that contribute to adverse
effects on vegetation. Volatile organic
compounds, some of which are
considered air toxics, have long been
suspected to play a role in vegetation
damage.597 In laboratory experiments, a
wide range of tolerance to VOCs has
been observed.598 Decreases in
harvested seed pod weight have been
reported for the more sensitive plants,
and some studies have reported effects
on seed germination, flowering and fruit
ripening. Effects of individual VOCs or
their role in conjunction with other
stressors (e.g., acidification, drought,
temperature extremes) have not been
well studied. In a recent study of a
mixture of VOCs including ethanol and
toluene on herbaceous plants,
significant effects on seed production,
leaf water content and photosynthetic
efficiency were reported for some plant
species.599
Research suggests an adverse impact
of vehicle exhaust on plants, which has
in some cases been attributed to
aromatic compounds and in other cases
to nitrogen oxides.600 601 602
596 Irving, P.M., e.d. 1991. Acid Deposition: State
of Science and Technology, Volume III, Terrestrial,
Materials, Health, and Visibility Effects, The U.S.
National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program,
Chapter 24, page 24–76.
597 U.S. EPA. (1991). Effects of organic chemicals
in the atmosphere on terrestrial plants. EPA/600/3–
91/001.
598 Cape JN, ID Leith, J Binnie, J Content, M
Donkin, M Skewes, DN Price AR Brown, AD
Sharpe. (2003). Effects of VOCs on herbaceous
plants in an open-top chamber experiment.
Environ. Pollut. 124:341–343.
599 Cape JN, ID Leith, J Binnie, J Content, M
Donkin, M Skewes, DN Price AR Brown, AD
Sharpe. (2003). Effects of VOCs on herbaceous
plants in an open-top chamber experiment.
Environ. Pollut. 124:341–343.
600 Viskari E–L. (2000). Epicuticular wax of
Norway spruce needles as indicator of traffic
pollutant deposition. Water, Air, and Soil Pollut.
121:327–337.
601 Ugrekhelidze D, F Korte, G Kvesitadze. (1997).
Uptake and transformation of benzene and toluene
by plant leaves. Ecotox. Environ. Safety 37:24–29.
602 Kammerbauer H, H Selinger, R Rommelt, A
Ziegler-Jons, D Knoppik, B Hock. (1987). Toxic
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D. Air Quality Impacts of Non-GHG
Pollutants
(1) Current Concentrations of Non-GHG
Pollutants
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Nationally, levels of PM2.5, ozone,
NOX, SOX, CO and air toxics are
declining.603 However, as of July 2, 2014
approximately 147 million people lived
in counties designated nonattainment
for one or more of the NAAQS, and this
figure does not include the people living
in areas with a risk of exceeding the
NAAQS in the future.604 The most
recent available data indicate that the
majority of Americans continue to be
exposed to ambient concentrations of air
toxics at levels which have the potential
to cause adverse health effects.605 In
addition, populations who live, work, or
attend school near major roads
experience elevated exposure
concentrations to a wide range of air
pollutants.606
EPA recognizes that states and local
areas are particularly concerned about
the challenges of reducing NOX and
attaining as well as maintaining the
ozone NAAQS. States and local areas
are required to adopt emission control
measures to attain the NAAQS. States
may then choose to seek redesignation
to attainment and if they do so they
must demonstrate that control measures
are in place sufficient to maintain the
NAAQS for ten years (and eight years
later, a similar demonstration is
required for another ten-year period).
The most recent revision to the ozone
standards was in 2008; the previous 8hour ozone standards were set in 1997.
Attaining and maintaining the NAAQS
has been challenging for some areas in
the past, and EPA has recently issued a
proposal that would strengthen the
ozone NAAQS (79 Fed. Reg 75,234, Dec.
17, 2014).
components of motor vehicle emissions for the
spruce Picea abies. Environ. Pollut. 48:235–243.
603 U.S. EPA, 2011. Our Nation’s Air: Status and
Trends through 2010. EPA–454/R–12–001. February
2012. Available at: https://www.epa.gov/airtrends/
2011/.
604 Data come from Summary Nonattainment Area
Population Exposure Report, current as of July 2,
2014 at: https://www.epa.gov/oar/oaqps/greenbk/
popexp.html and contained in Docket EPA–HQ–
OAR–2014–0827.
605 U.S. EPA. (2011) Summary of Results for the
2005 National-Scale Assessment. www.epa.gov/ttn/
atw/nata2005/05pdf/sum_results.pdf.
606 Health Effects Institute Panel on the Health
Effects of Traffic-Related Air Pollution. (2010)
Traffic-related air pollution: a critical review of the
literature on emissions, exposure, and health
effects. HEI Special Report 17. Available at https://
www.healtheffects.org].
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(2) Impacts of Proposed Standards on
Future Ambient Concentrations of NonGHG Pollutants
Full-scale photochemical air quality
modeling is necessary to accurately
project levels of criteria pollutants and
air toxics. For the final rulemaking,
national-scale air quality modeling
analyses will be performed to analyze
the impacts of the standards on PM2.5,
ozone, NO2, and selected air toxics (i.e.,
benzene, formaldehyde, acetaldehyde,
naphthalene, acrolein and 1,3butadiene). The length of time needed to
prepare the necessary emissions
inventories, in addition to the
processing time associated with the
modeling itself, has precluded us from
performing air quality modeling for this
proposal.
Section VIII.A of the preamble
presents projections of the changes in
criteria pollutant and air toxics
emissions due to the proposed vehicle
standards; the basis for those estimates
is set out in Chapter 5 of the draft RIA.
NHTSA also provides its projections in
Chapter 4 of its DEIS. The atmospheric
chemistry related to ambient
concentrations of PM2.5, ozone and air
toxics is very complex, and making
predictions based solely on emissions
changes is extremely difficult. However,
based on the magnitude of the emissions
changes predicted to result from the
proposed standards, the agencies expect
that there will be improvements in
ambient air quality, pending more
comprehensive analyses for the final
rulemaking.
For the final rulemaking nationalscale air quality modeling analyses will
be performed to estimate future year
ambient ozone, NO2, and PM2.5
concentrations, air toxics
concentrations, visibility levels and
nitrogen and sulfur deposition levels for
2040. The agencies intend to use a 2011based Community Multi-scale Air
Quality (CMAQ) modeling platform as
the tool for the air quality modeling.
The CMAQ modeling system is a
comprehensive three-dimensional gridbased Eulerian air quality model
designed to estimate the formation and
fate of oxidant precursors, primary and
secondary PM concentrations and
deposition, and air toxics, over regional
and urban spatial scales (e.g., over the
contiguous United States).607 608 609 610
607 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Byun,
D.W., and Ching, J.K.S., Eds, 1999. Science
algorithms of EPA Models-3 Community Multiscale
Air Quality (CMAQ modeling system, EPA/600/R–
99/030, Office of Research and Development).
Docket EPA–HQ–OAR–2010–0162
608 Byun, D.W., and Schere, K.L., 2006. Review of
the Governing Equations, Computational
Algorithms, and Other Components of the Models-
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The CMAQ model is a well-known and
well-established tool and is commonly
used by EPA for regulatory analyses, by
States in developing attainment
demonstrations for their State
Implementation Plans, and in numerous
other national and international
applications.611 612 613 614 The CMAQ
model version 5.0 was most recently
peer-reviewed in September of 2011 for
the U.S. EPA.615 CMAQ includes
numerous science modules that
simulate the emission, production,
decay, deposition and transport of
organic and inorganic gas-phase and
particle-phase pollutants in the
atmosphere. This 2011 multi-pollutant
modeling platform used the most recent
multi-pollutant CMAQ code available at
the time of air quality modeling (CMAQ
version 5.0.2; multipollutant
version).616 CMAQ v5.0.2 reflects
updates to version 5.0 to improve the
underlying science algorithms as well as
include new diagnostic/scientific
3 Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ)
Modeling System, J. Applied Mechanics Reviews,
59 (2), 51–77. Docket EPA–HQ–OAR–2010–0162
609 Dennis, R.L., Byun, D.W., Novak, J.H.,
Galluppi, K.J., Coats, C.J., and Vouk, M.A., 1996.
The next generation of integrated air quality
modeling: EPA’s Models-3, Atmospheric
Environment, 30, 1925–1938. Docket EPA–HQ–
OAR–2010–0162
610 Carlton, A., Bhave, P., Napelnok, S., Edney, E.,
Sarwar, G., Pinder, R., Pouliot, G., and Houyoux, M.
Model Representation of Secondary Organic
Aerosol in CMAQv4.7. Ahead of Print in
Environmental Science and Technology. Accessed
at: https://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/
es100636q?prevSearch=CMAQ&searchHistoryKey
Docket EPA–HQ–OAR–2010–0162.
611 U.S. EPA (2007). Regulatory Impact Analysis
of the Proposed Revisions to the National Ambient
Air Quality Standards for Ground-Level Ozone.
EPA document number 442/R–07–008, July 2007.
Docket EPA–HQ–OAR–2010–0162
612 Hogrefe, C., Biswas, J., Lynn, B., Civerolo, K.,
Ku, J.Y., Rosenthal, J., et al. (2004). Simulating
regional-scale ozone climatology over the eastern
United States: model evaluation results.
Atmospheric Environment, 38(17), 2627–2638.
613 United States Environmental Protection
Agency. (2008). Technical support document for the
final locomotive/marine rule: Air quality modeling
analyses. Research Triangle Park, N.C.: U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air
Quality Planning and Standards, Air Quality
Assessment Division.
614 Lin, M., Oki, T., Holloway, T., Streets, D.G.,
Bengtsson, M., Kanae, S., (2008). Long range
transport of acidifying substances in East Asia Part
I: Model evaluation and sensitivity studies.
Atmospheric Environment, 42(24), 5939–5955.
615 Brown, N., Allen, D., Amar, P., Kallos, G.,
McNider, R., Russell, A., Stockwell, W. (September
2011). Final Report: Fourth Peer Review of the
CMAQ Model, NERL/ORD/EPA. U.S. EPA, Research
Triangle Park, NC. https://www.epa.gov/asmdnerl/
Reviews/2011_CMAQ_Review_FinalReport.pdf. It is
available from the Community Modeling and
Analysis System (CMAS) as well as previous peerreview reports at: https://www.cmascenter.org.
616 CMAQ version 5.0.2 was released in April
2014. It is available from the Community Modeling
and Analysis System (CMAS) Web site: https://
www.cmascenter.org.
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modules which are detailed at https://
www.cmascenter.org.617 618 619
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IX. Economic and Other Impacts
This section presents the costs,
benefits and other economic impacts of
the proposed Phase 2 standards. It is
important to note that NHTSA’s
proposed fuel consumption standards
and EPA’s proposed GHG standards
would both be in effect, and each would
lead to average fuel efficiency increases
and GHG emission reductions.
The net benefits of the proposed
Phase 2 standards consist of the effects
of the program on:
• The vehicle program costs (costs of
complying with the vehicle CO2 and
fuel consumption standards),
• changes in fuel expenditures
associated with reduced fuel use
resulting from more efficient vehicles
and increased fuel use associated with
the ‘‘rebound’’ effect, both of which
result from the program,
• the economic value of reductions in
GHGs,
• the economic value of reductions in
non-GHG pollutants,
• costs associated with increases in
noise, congestion, and accidents
resulting from increased vehicle use,
• savings in drivers’ time from less
frequent refueling,
• benefits of increased vehicle use
associated with the ‘‘rebound’’ effect,
• the economic value of
improvements in U.S. energy security.
The benefits and costs of these rules
are analyzed using 3 percent and 7
percent discount rates, consistent with
current OMB guidance.620 These rates
are intended to represent consumers’
preference for current over future
consumption (3 percent), and the real
rate of return on private investment (7
percent) which indicates the
opportunity cost of capital. However,
neither of these rates necessarily
represents the discount rate that
individual decision-makers use.
The program may also have other
economic effects that are not included
617 Community Modeling and Analysis System
(CMAS) Web site: https://www.cmascenter.org,
RELEASE_NOTES for CMAQv5.0—February 2012.
618 Community Modeling and Analysis System
(CMAS) Web site: https://www.cmascenter.org,
RELEASE_NOTES for CMAQv5.0.1—July 2012.
619 Community Modeling and Analysis System
(CMAS) Web site: https://www.cmascenter.org.
CMAQ version 5.0.2 (April 2014 release) Technical
Documentation.—May 2014.
620 The range of Social Cost of Carbon (SC–CO )
2
values uses several discount rates because the
literature shows that the SC–CO2 is quite sensitive
to assumptions about the discount rate, and because
no consensus exists on the appropriate rate to use
in an intergenerational context (where costs and
benefits are incurred by different generations). Refer
to Section F.1 for more information.
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here. The agencies seek comment on
whether any costs or benefits are
omitted from this analysis, so that they
can be explicitly recognized in the final
rules. In particular, as discussed in
Sections III through VI of this preamble
and in Chapter 2 of the draft RIA, the
technology cost estimates developed
here take into account the costs to hold
other vehicle attributes, such as size and
performance, constant. With these
assumptions, and because welfare losses
represent monetary estimates of how
much buyers would have to be
compensated to be made as well off as
they would have been in the absence of
this regulation,621 price increases for
new vehicles measure the welfare losses
to the vehicle buyers.622 If the full
technology cost gets passed along to the
buyer as an increase in price, the
technology cost thus measures the
primary welfare loss of the standards,
including impacts on buyers. Increasing
fuel efficiency would have to lead to
other changes in the vehicles that
buyers find undesirable for there to be
additional welfare losses that are not
included in the technology costs.
As the 2012–2016 and 2017–2025
light-duty GHG/CAFE rules discussed, if
other vehicle attributes are not held
constant, then the technology cost
estimates do not capture the losses to
vehicle buyers associated with these
changes.623 The light-duty rules also
discussed other potential issues that
could affect the calculation of the
welfare impacts of these types of
621 This approach describes the economic concept
of compensating variation, a payment of money
after a change that would make a consumer as well
off after the change as before it. A related concept,
equivalent variation, estimates the income change
that would be an alternative to the change taking
place. The difference between them is whether the
consumer’s point of reference is her welfare before
the change (compensating variation) or after the
change (equivalent variation). In practice, these two
measures are typically very close together.
622 Indeed, it is likely to be an overestimate of the
loss to the consumer, because the buyer has choices
other than buying the same vehicle with a higher
price; she could choose a different vehicle, or
decide not to buy a new vehicle. The buyer would
choose one of those options only if the alternative
involves less loss than paying the higher price.
Thus, the increase in price that the buyer faces
would be the upper bound of loss of consumer
welfare, unless there are other changes to the
vehicle due to the fuel efficiency improvements that
make the vehicle less desirable to consumers.
623 Environmental Protection Agency and
Department of Transportation, ‘‘Light-Duty Vehicle
Greenhouse Gas Emission Standards and Corporate
Average Fuel Economy Standards; Final Rule,’’ 75
FR 25324, May 7, 2010, especially Sections III.H.1
(25510–25513) and IV.G.6 (25651–25657);
Environmental Protection Agency and Department
of Transportation, ’’2017 and Later Model Year
Light-Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Emissions and
Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards; Final
Rule,’’ 77 FR 62624, October 15, 2012, especially
Sections III.H.1 (62913–62919) and IV.G.5.a (63102–
63104).
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changes, such as aspects of buyers’
behavior that might affect the demand
for technology investments, uncertainty
in buyers’ investment horizons, and the
rate at which truck owners trade off
higher vehicle purchase price against
future fuel savings. The agencies seek
comments, including supporting data
and quantitative analyses, of any
additional impacts of the proposed
standards on vehicle attributes and
performance, or other potential aspects
that could positively or negatively affect
the welfare implications of this
proposed rulemaking.
Where possible, we identify the
uncertain aspects of these economic
impacts and attempt to quantify them
(e.g., sensitivity ranges associated with
quantified and monetized GHG impacts;
range of dollar-per-ton values to
monetize non-GHG health benefits;
uncertainty with respect to learning and
markups). For HD pickups and vans, the
agencies explicitly analyzed the
uncertainty surrounding its estimates of
the economic impacts from requiring
higher fuel efficiency in Preamble
Section VI. The agencies have also
examined the sensitivity of oil prices on
fuel expenditures; results of this
sensitivity analysis can be found in
Chapter 8 of the RIA. NHTSA’s draft EIS
also characterizes the uncertainty in
economic impacts associated with the
HD national program. For other impacts,
however, there is inadequate
information to inform a thorough,
quantitative assessment of uncertainty.
EPA and NHTSA continue to work
toward developing a comprehensive
strategy for characterizing the aggregate
impact of uncertainty in key elements of
its analyses and we will continue to
work to refine these uncertainty
analyses in the future as time and
resources permit. The agencies seek
comments on the methods and
assumptions used to quantify
uncertainty in this analysis, as well as
comments on methods and data that
might inform relevant uncertainty
analyses not quantified in this analysis.
This and other sections of the
preamble address Section 317 of the
Clean Air Act on economic analysis.
Section IX.L addresses Section 321 of
the Clean Air Act on employment
analysis. The total monetized benefits
and costs of the program are
summarized in Section IX.K for the
preferred alternative and in Section X
for all alternatives.
A. Conceptual Framework
The HD Phase 2 proposed standards
would implement both the 2007 Energy
Independence and Security Act
requirement that NHTSA establish fuel
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efficiency standards for medium- and
heavy-duty vehicles and the Clean Air
Act requirement that EPA adopt
technology-based standards to control
pollutant emissions from motor vehicles
and engines contributing to air pollution
that endangers public health and
welfare. NHTSA’s statutory mandate is
intended to further the agency’s longstanding goals of reducing U.S.
consumption and imports of petroleum
energy to improve the nation’s energy
security.
From an economics perspective,
government actions to improve our
nation’s energy security and to protect
our nation from the potential threats of
climate change address ‘‘externalities,’’
or economic consequences of decisions
by individuals and businesses that
extend beyond those who make these
decisions. For example, users of
transportation fuels increase the entire
U.S. economy’s risk of having to make
costly adjustments due to rapid
increases in oil prices, but these users
generally do not consider such costs
when they decide to consume more fuel.
Similarly, consuming transportation
fuel also increases emissions of
greenhouse gases and other more
localized air pollutants that occur when
fuel is refined, distributed, and
consumed. Some of these emissions
increase the likelihood and severity of
potential climate-related economic
damages, and others cause economic
damages by adversely affecting human
health. The need to address these
external costs and other adverse effects
provides a well-established economic
rationale that supports the statutory
direction given to government agencies
to establish regulatory programs that
reduce the magnitude of these adverse
effects at reasonable costs.
The proposed Phase 2 standards
would require manufacturers of new
heavy-duty vehicles, including trailers
(HDVs), to improve the fuel efficiency of
the products that they produce. As HDV
users purchase and operate these new
vehicles, they would consume
significantly less fuel, in turn reducing
U.S. petroleum consumption and
imports as well as emissions of GHGs
and other air pollutants. Thus, as a
consequence of the agencies’ efforts to
meet our statutory obligations to
improve U.S. energy security and EPA’s
obligation to issue standards ‘‘to
regulate emissions of the deleterious
pollutant . . . from motor vehicles’’ that
endangers public health and welfare,624
the proposed fuel efficiency and GHG
emission standards would also reduce
624 State
of Massachusetts v. EPA, 549 U.S. at
533.
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HDV operators’ outlays for fuel
purchases. These fuel savings are one
measure of the proposed rule’s
effectiveness in promoting NHTSA’s
statutory goal of conserving energy, as
well as EPA’s obligation to assess the
cost of standards under section 202(a)(1)
and (2) of the Clean Air Act. Although
these savings are not the agencies’
primary motivation for adopting higher
fuel efficiency standards, these
substantial fuel savings represent
significant additional economic benefits
of this proposal.
Potential savings in fuel costs would
appear to offer HDV buyers strong
incentives to pay higher prices for
vehicles that feature technology or
equipment that reduces fuel
consumption. These potential savings
would also appear to offer HDV
manufacturers similarly strong
incentives to produce more fuelefficient vehicles. Economic theory
suggests that interactions between
vehicle buyers and sellers in a normallyfunctioning competitive market would
lead HDV manufacturers to incorporate
all technologies that contribute to lower
net costs into the vehicles they offer,
and buyers to purchase them willingly.
Nevertheless, many readily available
technologies that appear to offer costeffective increases in HDV fuel
efficiency (when evaluated over their
expected lifetimes using conventional
discount rates) have not been widely
adopted, despite their potential to repay
buyers’ initial investments rapidly.
This economic situation is commonly
known as the ‘‘energy efficiency gap’’ or
‘‘energy paradox.’’ This situation is
perhaps more challenging to understand
with respect to the heavy-duty sector
versus the light-duty vehicle sector.
Unlike light-duty vehicles—which are
purchased and used mainly by
individuals and households—the vast
majority of HDVs are purchased and
operated by profit-seeking businesses
for which fuel costs represent a
substantial operating expense.
Nevertheless, on the basis of evidence
reviewed below, the agencies believe
that a significant number of fuel
efficiency improving technologies
would remain far less widely adopted in
the absence of these proposed
standards.
Economic research offers several
possible explanations for why the
prospect of these apparent savings
might not lead HDV manufacturers and
buyers to adopt technologies that would
be expected to reduce HDV operating
costs. Some of these explanations
involve failures of the HDV market for
reasons other than the externalities
caused by producing and consuming
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fuel. These include situations where
information about the performance of
fuel economy technologies is
incomplete, costly to obtain, or available
only to one party to a transaction (or
‘‘asymmetrical’’), as well as behavioral
rigidities in either the HDV
manufacturing or HDV-operating
industries, such as standardized or
inflexibly administered operating
procedures, or requirements of other
regulations on HDVs. Other
explanations for the limited use of
apparently cost-effective technologies
that do not involve market failures
include HDV operators’ concerns about
the performance, reliability, or
maintenance requirements of new
technology under the demands of
everyday use, uncertainty about the fuel
savings they will actually realize, and
questions about possible effects on
carrying capacity or other aspects of
HDVs’ utility.
In the HD Phase 1 rulemaking (which,
in contrast to these proposed standards,
did not apply to trailers), the agencies
raised five hypotheses that might
explain this energy efficiency gap or
paradox:
• Imperfect information in the new
vehicle market: Information available to
prospective buyers about the
effectiveness of some fuel-saving
technologies for new vehicles may be
inadequate or unreliable. If reliable
information on their effectiveness in
reducing fuel consumption is
unavailable or difficult to obtain, HDV
buyers will understandably be reluctant
to pay higher prices to purchase
vehicles equipped with unproven
technologies.
• Imperfect information in the resale
market: Buyers in the used vehicle
market may not be willing to pay
adequate premiums for more fuel
efficient vehicles when they are offered
for resale to ensure that buyers of new
vehicles can recover the remaining
value of their original investment in
higher fuel efficiency. The prospect of
an inadequate return on their original
owners’ investments in higher fuel
efficiency may contribute to the short
payback periods that buyers of new
vehicles appear to demand.625
625 Committee to Assess Fuel Economy
Technologies for Medium- and Heavy-Duty
Vehicles; National Research Council;
Transportation Research Board (2010).
‘‘Technologies and Approaches to Reducing the
Fuel Consumption of Medium- and Heavy-Duty
Vehicles,’’ (hereafter, ‘‘NAS 2010’’). Washington,
DC. The National Academies Press. Available
electronically from the National Academies Press
Web site at https://www.nap.edu/
catalog.php?record_id=12845 (accessed September
10, 2010).
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• Principal-agent problems causing
split incentives: An HDV buyer may not
be directly responsible for its future fuel
costs, or the individual who will be
responsible for fuel costs may not
participate in the HDV purchase
decision. In these cases, the signal to
invest in higher fuel efficiency normally
provided by savings in fuel costs may
not be transmitted effectively to HDV
buyers, and the incentives of HDV
buyers and fuel buyers will diverge, or
be ‘‘split.’’ The trailers towed by heavyduty tractors, which are typically not
supplied by the tractor manufacturer or
seller, present an obvious potential
situation of split incentives that was not
addressed in the HD Phase 1
rulemaking, but it may apply in this
rulemaking. If there is inadequate passthrough of price signals from trailer
users to their buyers, then low adoption
of fuel-saving technologies may result.
• Uncertainty about future fuel cost
savings: HDV buyers may be uncertain
about future fuel prices, or about
maintenance costs and reliability of
some fuel efficiency technologies.
Buyers may react to this uncertainty by
implicitly discounting potential future
savings at rates above discount rates
used in this analysis. In contrast, the
costs of fuel-saving or maintenancereducing technologies are immediate
and thus not subject to discounting. In
this situation, potential variability about
buyers’ expected returns on capital
investments to achieve higher fuel
efficiency may shorten the payback
period—the time required to repay those
investments—they demand in order to
make them.
• Adjustment and transactions costs:
Potential resistance to new
technologies—stemming, for example,
from drivers’ reluctance or slowness to
adjust to changes in the way vehicles
operate—may slow or inhibit new
technology adoption. If a conservative
approach to new technologies leads
HDV buyers to adopt them slowly, then
successful new technologies would be
adopted over time without market
intervention, but only with potentially
significant delays in achieving the fuel
saving, environmental, and energy
security benefits they offer. There also
may be costs associated with training
drivers to realize potential fuel savings
enabled by new technologies, or with
accelerating fleet operators’ scheduled
fleet turnover and replacement to hasten
their acquisition of vehicles equipped
with these technologies.
Some of these explanations imply
failures in the private market for fuelsaving technology beyond the
externalities caused by producing and
consuming fuel, while others suggest
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that complications in valuing or
adapting to technologies that reduce
fuel consumption may partly explain
buyers’ hesitance to purchase more fuelefficient vehicles. In either case,
adopting this proposed rule would
provide regulatory certainty and
generate important economic benefits in
addition to reducing externalities.
Since the HD Phase 1 rulemaking,
new research has provided further
insight into potential barriers to
adoption of fuel-saving technologies.
Several studies utilized focus groups
and interviews involving small numbers
of participants, who were people with
time and inclination to join such
studies, rather than selected at
random.626 As a result, the information
from these groups is not necessarily
representative of the industry as a
whole. While these studies cannot
provide conclusive evidence about how
all HDV buyers make their decisions,
they do describe issues that arise for
those that participated.
One common theme that emerges
from these studies is the inability of
HDV buyers to obtain reliable
information about the fuel savings,
reliability, and maintenance costs of
technologies that improve fuel
efficiency. In many product markets,
such as consumer electronics, credible
reviews and tests of product
performance are readily available to
potential buyers. In the trucking
industry, however, the performance of
fuel-saving technology is likely to
depend on many firm-specific
attributes, including the intensity of
HDV use, the typical distance and
routing of HDV trips, driver
characteristics, road conditions, regional
geography and traffic patterns.
As a result, businesses that operate
HDVs have strong preferences for testing
fuel-saving technologies ‘‘in-house’’
because they are concerned that their
patterns of vehicle use may lead to
different results from those reported in
published information. Businesses with
less capability to do in-house testing
often seek information from peers, yet
often remain skeptical of its
applicability due to differences in the
626 Klemick, Heather, Elizabeth Kopits, Keith
Sargent, and Ann Wolverton (2014). ‘‘Heavy-Duty
Trucking and the Energy Efficiency Paradox.’’ US
EPA NCEE Working Paper Series. Working Paper
14–02; Roeth, Mike, Dave Kircher, Joel Smith, and
Rob Swim (2013). ‘‘Barriers to the Increased
Adoption of Fuel Efficiency Technologies in the
North American On-Road Freight Sector.’’ NACFE
report for the International Council on Clean
Transportation; Aarnink, Sanne, Jasper Faber, and
Eelco den Boer (2012). ‘‘Market Barriers to
Increased Efficiency in the European On-road
Freight Sector.’’ CE Delft report for the International
Council on Clean Transportation.
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nature of their operations. One source of
imperfect information is the lack of
availability of certain technologies from
preferred suppliers. HDV buyers often
prefer to have technology or equipment
installed by their favored original
equipment manufacturers. However,
some technologies may not be available
through these preferred sources, or may
be available only as after-market
installations from third parties (Aarnink
et al. 2012, Roeth et al. 2013).
Although these studies appear to
show that information in the new HDV
market is often limited or viewed as
unreliable, the evidence for imperfect
information in the market for used
HDVs is mixed. On the one hand, some
studies noted that fuel-saving
technology is often not valued or
demanded in the used vehicle market,
because of imperfect information about
its benefits, or greater mistrust of its
performance among buyers in the used
vehicle market than among buyers of
new vehicles. The lack of demand might
also be due to the intended use of the
used HDV, which may not require or
reward the presence of certain fuelsaving technologies. In other cases,
however, fuel-saving technology can
lead to a premium in the used market,
as for instance to meet the more
stringent requirements for HDVs
operating in California.
All of the recent research identifies
split incentives, or principal-agent
problems, as a potential barrier to
technology adoption. These occur when
those responsible for investment
decisions are different from the main
beneficiaries of the technology. For
instance, businesses that own and lease
trailers to HDV operators may not have
an incentive to invest in trailer-specific
fuel-saving technology, since they do
not collect the savings from the lower
fuel costs that result. Vernon and Meier
(2012) estimate that 23 percent of
trailers may be exposed to this kind of
principal-agent problem, although they
do not quantify its financial
significance.627
Split incentives can also exist when
the HDV driver is not responsible for
paying fuel costs. Some technologies
require additional effort, training, or
changes in driving behavior to achieve
their promised fuel savings; drivers who
do not pay for fuel may be reluctant to
undertake those changes, thus reducing
the fuel-saving benefits from the
perspective of the individual or
company paying for the fuel. For
627 Vernon, David and Alan Meier (2012).
‘‘Identification and quantification of principal-agent
problems affecting energy efficiency investments
and use decisions in the trucking industry.’’ Energy
Policy, 49(C), pp. 266–273.
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instance, drivers might not consistently
deploy boat-tails equipped on trailers to
improve vehicle aerodynamics.628
Vernon and Meier also calculate that 91
percent of HDV fuel use is subject to
this form of principal-agent problem,
although they do not estimate how
much it might reduce fuel savings to
those who are paying for the fuel.
The studies based on focus groups
and interviews (Klemick et al. 2013,
Aarnink et al. 2012, Roeth et al. 2013)
provide mixed evidence on the severity
of the split-incentive problem. Focus
groups often do identify diverging
incentives between drivers and the
decision-makers responsible for
purchasing vehicles, and economics
literature recognizes that this split
incentive can be a barrier to adopting
new technology. Aarnink et al. (2012)
and Roeth et al. (2013) cite examples of
split incentives involving trailers and
fuel surcharges, although the latter also
cites other examples where these same
issues do not lead to split incentives.
In an effort to minimize problems that
can arise from split incentives, many
businesses that operate HDVs also train
drivers in the use of specific
technologies or to modify their driving
behavior in order to improve fuel
efficiency, while some also offer
financial incentives to their drivers to
conserve fuel. All of these options can
help to reduce the split incentive
problem, although they may not be
effective where it arises from different
ownership of combination tractors and
trailers.
Uncertainty about future costs for fuel
and maintenance, or about the
reliability of new technology, also
appears to be a significant obstacle that
can slow the adoption of fuel-saving
technologies. These examples illustrate
the problem of uncertain or unreliable
information about the actual
performance of fuel efficiency
technology discussed above. In
addition, businesses that operate HDVs
may be concerned about how reliable
new technologies will prove to be on the
road, and whether significant additional
maintenance costs or equipment
malfunctions that result in costly
downtime could occur. Roeth et al.
(2013) and Klemick et al. (2013) both
document the short payback periods
that HDV buyers require on their
investments—usually about 2 years—
which may be partly attributable to
these uncertainties.
628 Some boat-tails are being developed with
technology to open them automatically when the
trailer reaches a suitable speed, to reduce this
problem.
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These studies also provide some
support for the view that adjustment
and transactions costs may impede HDV
buyers from investing in higher fuel
efficiency. As discussed above, several
studies note that HDV buyers are less
likely to select new technology when it
is not available from their preferred
manufacturers. Some technologies are
only available as after-market additions,
which can add other costs to adopting
them.
Some studies also cite driver
acceptance of new equipment or
technologies as a barrier to their
adoption. HDV driver turnover is high
in the U.S., and businesses that operate
HDVs are concerned about retaining
their best drivers. Therefore, they may
avoid technologies that require
significant new training or adjustments
in driver behavior. For some
technologies that can be used to meet
the proposed standards, such as
automatic tire inflation systems, training
costs are likely to be minimal. Other
technologies such as stop-start systems,
however, may require drivers to adjust
their expectations about vehicle
operation, and it is difficult for the
agencies to anticipate how drivers will
respond to such changes.629
In addition to these factors, the
studies considered other possible
explanations for HDV buyers’ apparent
reluctance or slowness to invest in fuelsaving equipment or technology.
Financial constraints—access to lending
sources willing to finance purchases of
more expensive vehicles—do not appear
to be a problem for the medium- and
large-sized businesses participating in
Klemick et al.’s (2013) study. However,
Roeth et al. (2013) noted that access to
capital can be a significant challenge to
smaller or independent businesses, and
that price is always a concern to buyers.
In general, businesses that operate HDVs
face a range of competing uses for
available capital other than investing in
fuel-saving technologies, and may
assign higher priority to these other
uses, even when investing in higher fuel
efficiency HDVs appears to promise
adequate financial returns.
Other potentially important barriers to
the adoption of measures that improve
fuel efficiency may arise from ‘‘network
externalities,’’ where the benefits to new
users of a technology depend on how
many others have already adopted it.
One example where network
629 The distinction between simply requiring
drivers (or mechanics) to adjust their expectations
and compromises in vehicle performance or utility
is subtle. While the former may not impose
significant compliance costs in the long run, the
latter would represent additional economic costs of
complying with the standard.
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externalities seem likely to arise is the
market for natural gas-fueled HDVs: The
limited availability of refueling stations
may reduce potential buyers’
willingness to purchase natural gasfueled HDVs, while the small number of
such HDVs in-use does not provide
sufficient economic incentive to
construct more natural gas refueling
stations.
Some businesses that operate HDVs
may also be concerned about the
difficulty in locating repair facilities or
replacement parts, such as single-wide
tires, wherever their vehicles operate.
When a technology has been widely
adopted, then it is likely to be
serviceable even in remote or rural
places, but until it becomes widely
available, its early adopters may face
difficulties with repairs or
replacements. By accelerating the
widespread adoption of these
technologies, the proposed standards
may assist in overcoming these
difficulties.
As discussed previously, the lack of
availability of fuel-saving technologies
from preferred manufactures can also be
a significant barrier to adoption (Roeth
et al. 2013). Manufacturers may be
hesitant to offer technologies for which
there is not strong demand, especially if
the technologies require significant
research and development expenses and
other costs of bringing the technology to
a market of uncertain demand.
Roeth et al. (2013) also noted that it
can take years, and sometimes as much
as a decade, for a specific technology to
become available from all
manufacturers. Many manufacturers
prefer to observe the market and follow
other manufacturers rather than be the
first to market with a specific
technology. The ‘‘first-mover
disadvantage’’ has been recognized in
other research where the ‘‘first-mover’’
pays a higher proportion of the costs of
developing technology, but loses the
long-term advantage when other
businesses follow quickly.630 In this
way, there may be barriers to innovation
on the supply side that result in lower
adoption rates of fuel-efficiency
technology than would be optimal.
In summary, the agencies recognize
that businesses that operate HDVs are
under competitive pressure to reduce
operating costs, which should compel
630 Blumstein, Carl and Margaret Taylor (2013).
‘‘Rethinking the Energy-Efficiency Gap: Producers,
Intermediaries, and Innovation,’’ Energy Institute at
Haas Working Paper 243, University of California at
Berkeley; Tirole, Jean (1998). The Theory of
Industrial Organization. Cambridge, MA: MIT
Press, pp.400, 402. This first-mover disadvantage
must large enough to overcome the incentive
normally offered by the potential to for first movers
to earn unusually high (but temporary) profit levels.
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HDV buyers to identify and rapidly
adopt cost-effective fuel-saving
technologies. Outlays for labor and fuel
generally constitute the two largest
shares of HDV operating costs,
depending on the price of fuel, distance
traveled, type of HDV, and commodity
transported (if any), so businesses that
operate HDVs face strong incentives to
reduce these costs.631 632
However, the short payback periods
that buyers of new HDVs appear to
require suggest that some combination
of uncertainty about future cost savings,
transactions costs, and imperfectly
functioning markets impedes this
process. Markets for both new and used
HDVs may face these problems,
although it is difficult to assess
empirically the degree to which they
actually do. Even if the benefits from
widespread adoption of fuel-saving
technologies exceed their costs, their
use may remain limited or spread
slowly because their early adopters bear
a disproportionate share of those costs.
In this case, the proposed standards may
help to overcome such barriers by
ensuring that these measures would be
widely adopted.
Providing information about fuelsaving technologies, offering incentives
for their adoption, and sharing HDV
operators’ real-world experiences with
their performance through voluntary
programs such as EPA’s SmartWay
Transport Partnership should assist in
the adoption of new cost-saving
technologies. Nevertheless, other
barriers that impede the diffusion of
new technologies are likely to remain.
Buyers who are willing to experiment
with new technologies expect to find
cost savings, but those savings may be
difficult to verify or replicate. As noted
previously, because benefits from
employing these technologies are likely
to vary with the characteristics of
individual routes and traffic patterns,
buyers of new HDVs may find it
difficult to identify or verify the effects
of fuel-saving technologies in their
operations. Risk-averse buyers may also
avoid new technologies out of concerns
over the possibility of inadequate
returns on their investments, or with
other possible adverse impacts.
Some HDV manufacturers may delay
in investing in the development and
production of new technologies, instead
631 American Transportation Research Institute,
An Analysis of the Operational Costs of Trucking,
September 2013 (Docket ID: EPA–HQ–OAR–2014–
0827).
632 Transport Canada, Operating Cost of Trucks,
2005. See https://www.tc.gc.ca/eng/policy/reportacg-operatingcost2005-2005-e-2-1727.htm, accessed
on July 16, 2010 (Docket ID: EPA–HQ–OAR–2014–
0827).
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waiting for other manufacturers to bear
the risks of those investments first.
Competitive pressures in the HDV
freight transport industry can provide a
strong incentive to reduce fuel
consumption and improve
environmental performance. However,
not every HDV operator has the
requisite ability or interest to access and
utilize the technical information, or the
resources necessary to evaluate this
information within the context of his or
her own operations.
As discussed previously, whether the
technologies available to improve HDVs’
fuel efficiency would be adopted widely
in the absence of the program is
challenging to assess. To the extent that
these technologies would be adopted in
its absence, neither their costs nor their
benefits would be attributed to the
program. To account for this possibility,
the agencies analyzed the proposed
standards and the regulatory
alternatives against two reference cases,
or baselines, as described in Section X.
The first case uses a baseline that
projects some improvement in fuel
efficiency for new trailers, but no
improvement in fuel efficiency for other
vehicle segments in the absence of new
Phase 2 standards. This first case is
referred to as the less dynamic baseline,
or Alternative 1a. The second case uses
a baseline that projects some
improvement in vehicle fuel efficiency
for tractors, trailers, pickup trucks, and
vans but not for vocational vehicles.
This second case is referred to as the
more dynamic baseline, or Alternative
1b.
The agencies will continue to explore
reasons for the slow adoption of readily
available and apparently cost-effective
technologies for improving fuel
efficiency. We also seek comments on
our hypotheses about its causes, as well
as data or other information that can
inform our understanding of why this
situation seems to persist.
B. Vehicle-Related Costs Associated
With the Program
(1) Technology Cost Methodology
(a) Direct Manufacturing Costs
The direct manufacturing costs
(DMCs) used throughout this analysis
are derived from several sources. Many
of the tractor, vocational and trailer
DMCs can be sourced to the Phase 1 rule
which, in turn, were sourced largely
from a contracted study by ICF
International for EPA.633 We have
updated those costs by converting them
633 ICF International. Investigation of Costs for
Strategies to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions for
Heavy-Duty On-Road Vehicles. July 2010.
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to 2012 dollars, as described in Section
IX.B.1.e below, and by continuing the
learning effects described in the Phase
1 rule and in Section IX.B.1.c below.
The new tractor, vocational and trailer
costs can be sourced to a more recent
study conducted by Tetra Tech under
contract to NHTSA.634 The cost
methodology used by Tetra Tech was to
estimate retail costs and work backward
from there to derive a DMC for each
technology. The agencies did not agree
with the approach used by Tetra Tech
to move from retail cost to DMC as the
approach was to simply divide retail
costs by 2 and use the result as a DMC.
Our research, discussed below, suggests
that a divisor of 2 is too high. Therefore,
where we have used a Tetra Tech
derived retail estimate, we have divided
by our researched markups to arrive at
many of the DMCs used in this analysis.
In this way, the agencies have used an
approach consistent with past GHG/
CAFE/fuel consumption rules by
dividing estimated retail prices by our
estimated retail price equivalent (RPE)
markups to derive an appropriate DMC
for each technology. We describe our
RPEs in Section IX.B.1.b, below.
For HD pickups and vans, we have
relied primarily on the Phase 1 rule and
the recent light-duty 2017–2025 model
year rule since most technologies
expected on these vehicles are, in effect,
the same as those used on light-duty
pickups. Many of those technology
DMCs are based on cost teardown
studies which the agencies consider to
be the most robust method of cost
estimation. However, because most of
the HD versions of those technologies
are expected to be more costly than their
light-duty counterparts, we have scaled
upward most of the light-duty DMCs for
this analysis. We have also used some
costs developed under contract to
NHTSA by Tetra Tech.635
Importantly, in our methodology, all
technologies are treated as being
sourced from a supplier rather than
being developed and produced inhouse. As a result, some portion of the
total indirect costs of making a
technology or system—those costs
incurred by the supplier for research,
development, transportation, marketing
etc.—are contained in the sales price to
the engine and/or vehicle/trailer
manufacturer (i.e., the original
equipment manufacturer (OEM)). That
634 Schubert, R., Chan, M., Law, K. (2015).
Commercial Medium- and Heavy-Duty (MD/HD)
Truck Fuel Efficiency Cost Study. Washington, DC:
National Highway Traffic Safety Administration.
635 Schubert, R., Chan, M., Law, K. (2015).
Commercial Medium- and Heavy-Duty (MD/HD)
Truck Fuel Efficiency Cost Study. Washington, DC:
National Highway Traffic Safety Administration.
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sale price paid by the OEM to the
supplier is the DMC we estimate.
We present the details—sources, DMC
values, scaling from light-duty values,
markups, learning effects, adoption
rates—behind all our costs in Chapter 2
of the draft RIA.
(b) Indirect Costs
To produce a unit of output, engine
and truck manufacturers incur direct
and indirect costs. Direct costs include
cost of materials and labor costs.
Indirect costs are all the costs associated
with producing the unit of output that
are not direct costs—for example, they
may be related to production (such as
research and development [R&D]),
corporate operations (such as salaries,
pensions, and health care costs for
corporate staff), or selling (such as
transportation, dealer support, and
marketing). Indirect costs are generally
recovered by allocating a share of the
costs to each unit of good sold.
Although it is possible to account for
direct costs allocated to each unit of
good sold, it is more challenging to
account for indirect costs allocated to a
unit of goods sold. To make a cost
analysis process more feasible, markup
factors, which relate total indirect costs
to total direct costs, have been
developed. These factors are often
referred to as retail price equivalent
(RPE) multipliers.
While the agencies have traditionally
used RPE multipliers to estimate
indirect costs, in recent GHG/CAFE/fuel
consumption rules RPEs have been
replaced in the primary analysis with
indirect cost multipliers (ICMs). ICMs
differ from RPEs in that they attempt to
estimate not all indirect costs incurred
to bring a product to point of sale, but
only those indirect costs that change as
a result of a government action or
regulatory requirement. As such, some
indirect costs, notably health and
retirement benefits of retired employees,
among other indirect costs, would not
be expected to change due to a
government action and, therefore, the
portion of the RPE that covered those
costs does not change.
Further, the ICM is not a ‘‘one-sizefits-all’’ markup as is the traditional
RPE. With ICMs, higher complexity
technologies like hybridization or
moving from a manual to automatic
transmission may require higher
indirect costs—more research and
development, more integration work,
etc.—suggesting a higher markup.
Conversely, lower complexity
technologies like reducing friction or
adding passive aero features may
require fewer indirect costs thereby
suggesting a lower markup.
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Notably, ICMs are also not a simple
multiplier as are traditional RPEs. The
ICM is broken into two parts—warranty
related and non-warranty related costs.
The warranty related portion of the ICM
is relatively small while the nonwarranty portion represents typically
over 95 percent of indirect costs. These
two portions are applied to different
DMC values to arrive at total costs (TC).
The warranty portion of the markup is
applied to a DMC that decreases yearover-year due to learning effects
(described below in Section IX.B.1.c).636
As learning effects decrease the DMC
with production volumes, it makes
sense that warranty costs would
decrease since those parts replaced
under warranty should be less costly. In
contrast, the non-warranty portion of
the markup is applied to a static DMC
year-over-year resulting in static
indirect costs. This is logical since the
production plants and transportation
networks and general overhead required
to build parts, market them, deliver
them and integrate them into vehicles
do not necessarily decrease in cost yearover-year. Because the warranty and
non-warranty portions of the ICM are
applied differently, one cannot compare
the markup itself to the RPE to
determine which markup would result
in higher indirect cost estimates, at least
in the time periods typically considered
in our rules (four to ten years).
The agencies are concerned that some
potential costs associated with this
rulemaking may not be adequately
captured by our ICMs. ICMs are
estimated based on a few specific
technologies and these technologies
may not be representative of the changes
actually made to meet the proposed
requirements. Specifically, we may not
have adequately estimated the costs for
accelerated R&D or potential reliability
issues with advanced technologies
required by Alternative 4. There is a
great deal of uncertainty regarding these
costs, and this makes estimates for this
alternative of particular concern. We
request comment on that aspect of our
estimates and on all aspects of our
indirect cost estimation approach.
We provide more details on our ICM
approach and the markups used for each
technology in Chapter 2.12 of the draft
RIA.
636 We note that the labor portion of warranty
repairs does not decrease due to learning. However,
we do not have data to separate this portion and
so we apply learning to the entire warranty cost.
Because warranty costs are a small portion of
overall indirect costs, this has only a minor impact
on the analysis.
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(c) Learning Effects on Direct and
Indirect Costs
For some of the technologies
considered in this analysis,
manufacturer learning effects would be
expected to play a role in the actual end
costs. The ‘‘learning curve’’ or
‘‘experience curve’’ describes the
reduction in unit production costs as a
function of accumulated production
volume. In theory, the cost behavior it
describes applies to cumulative
production volume measured at the
level of an individual manufacturer,
although it is often assumed—as both
agencies have done in past regulatory
analyses—to apply at the industry-wide
level, particularly in industries that
utilize many common technologies and
component supply sources. Both
agencies believe there are indeed many
factors that cause costs to decrease over
time. Research in the costs of
manufacturing has consistently shown
that, as manufacturers gain experience
in production, they are able to apply
innovations to simplify machining and
assembly operations, use lower cost
materials, and reduce the number or
complexity of component parts. All of
these factors allow manufacturers to
lower the per-unit cost of production
(i.e., the manufacturing learning
curve).637
In this analysis, the agencies are using
the same approach to learning as done
in past GHG/CAFE/fuel consumption
rules. In short, learning effects result in
rapid cost reductions in the early years
following introduction of a new
technology. The agencies have
estimated those cost reductions as
resulting in 20 percent lower costs for
every doubling of production volume.
As production volumes increase,
learning rates continue at the same pace
but flatten asymptotically due to the
nature of the persistent doubling of
production required to realize that cost
reduction. As such, the cost reductions
flatten out as production volumes
continue to increase. Consistent with
the Phase 1 rule, we refer to these two
distinct portions of the ‘‘learning cost
reduction curve’’ or ‘‘learning curve’’ as
the steeper and flatter portions of the
curve. On that steep portion of the
curve, costs are estimated to decrease by
637 See ‘‘Learning Curves in Manufacturing’’, L.
Argote and D. Epple, Science, Volume 247;
‘‘Toward Cost Buy down Via Learning-by-Doing for
Environmental Energy Technologies, R. Williams,
Princeton University, Workshop on Learning-byDoing in Energy Technologies, June 2003; ‘‘Industry
Learning Environmental and the Heterogeneity of
Firm Performance, N. Balasubramanian and M.
Lieberman, UCLA Anderson School of
Management, December 2006, Discussion Papers,
Center for Economic Studies, Washington DC.
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20 percent for each double of
production or, by proxy, in the third
and then fifth year of production
following introduction. On the flat
portion of the curve, costs are estimated
to decrease by 3 percent per year for 5
years, then 2 percent per year for 5
years, then 1 percent per year for 5
years. Also consistent with the Phase 1
rule, the majority of the technologies we
expect would be adopted are considered
to be on the flat portion of the learning
curve meaning that the 20 percent cost
reductions are rarely applied. The
agencies request comment on this
approach to estimating these effects, and
request that commenters provide data
and forward-looking information to
support any alternative methods or
specific estimates.
We provide more details on the
concept of learning-by-doing and the
learning effects applied in this analysis
in Chapter 2 of the draft RIA.
(d) Technology Adoption Rates and
Developing Package Costs
Determining the stringency of the
proposed standards involves a balancing
of relevant factors—chiefly technology
feasibility and effectiveness, costs, and
lead time. For vocational vehicles,
tractors and trailers, the agencies have
projected a technology path to achieve
the proposed standards reflecting an
application rate of those technologies
the agencies consider to be available at
reasonable cost in the lead times
provided. The agencies do not expect
each of the technologies for which costs
have been developed to be employed by
all trucks and trailers across the board.
Further, many of today’s vehicles are
already equipped with some of the
technologies and/or are expected to
adopt them by MY2018 to comply with
the HD Phase 1 standards. Estimated
adoption rates in both the reference and
control cases are necessary for each
vehicle/trailer category. The adoption
rates for most technologies are zero in
the reference case; however, for some
technologies—notably aero and tire
technologies—the adoption rate is not
zero in the reference case. These
reference and control case adoption
rates are then applied to the technology
costs with the result being a package
cost for each vehicle/trailer category.
For HD pickups and vans, the CAFE
model determines the technology
adoption rates that most cost effectively
meet the standards being proposed.
Similar to vocational vehicles, tractors
and trailers, package costs are rarely if
ever a simple sum of all the technology
costs since each technology would be
expected to be adopted at different rates.
The methods for estimating technology
adoption rates and resultant costs (and
other impacts) for HD pickups and vans
are discussed above in Section 6.
We provide details of expected
adoption rates in Chapter 2 of the draft
RIA. We present package costs both in
Sections III through VI of this preamble
and in more detail in Chapter 2 of the
draft RIA.
(e) Conversion of Technology Costs to
2012 U.S. Dollars
As noted above in Section IX.B.1, the
agencies are using technology costs from
many different sources. These sources,
having been published in different
years, present costs in different year
dollars (i.e., 2009 dollars or 2010
dollars). For this analysis, the agencies
sought to have all costs in terms of 2012
dollars to be consistent with the dollars
used by AEO in its 2014 Annual Energy
Outlook.638 The agencies have used the
GDP Implicit Price Deflator for Gross
Domestic Product as the converter, with
the actual factors used as shown in
Table IX–1.639
TABLE IX–1—IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS AND CONVERSION FACTORS FOR CONVERSION TO 2012$
2006
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2008
94.818
1.107
Price index for GDP .........................................
Factor applied for 2012$ ..................................
2007
97.335
1.079
99.236
1.058
2009
100
1.050
(2) Compliance Program Costs
The agencies have also estimated
additional and/or new compliance costs
associated with the proposed standards.
Normally, compliance program costs
would be considered part of the indirect
costs and, therefore, would be
accounted for via the markup applied to
direct manufacturing costs. However,
since the agencies are proposing new
compliance elements that were not
present during development of the
indirect cost markups used in this
analysis, additional compliance
program costs are being accounted for
via a separate ‘‘line-item.’’ New research
and development costs (see below) are
being handled in the same way.
The new compliance program
elements included in this proposal are
new powertrain testing within the
vocational vehicle program, and an allnew compliance program where none
has existed to date within the trailer
program. Note that for HD pickups and
vans, HD engines, vocational vehicles
and tractors, the Phase 1 rule included
analogous compliance program costs
meant to account for costs incurred in
the all-new compliance program placed
on the regulated firms by that rule.
Compliance program costs cover costs
associated with any necessary
compliance testing and reporting to the
agencies and differ somewhat by
alternative since, for example, more
manufacturers are expected to conduct
powertrain testing under alternative 4
than under alternative 3, etc. The details
behind the estimated compliance
program costs are provided in Chapter
7 of the draft RIA. We request comment
on our estimated compliance costs.
638 U.S. Energy Information Administration,
Annual Energy Outlook 2014, Early Release; Report
Number DOE/EIA–0383ER (2014), December 16,
2013.
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(3) Research and Development Costs
Much like the compliance program
costs described above, we have
estimated additional HDD engine,
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2010
2011
2012
2013
101.211
1.037
103.199
1.017
105.002
1.000
106.588
0.985
vocational vehicle and tractor R&D
associated with the proposed standards
that is not accounted for via the indirect
cost markups used for these segments.
Much like the Phase 1 rule, EPA is
estimating these additional R&D costs
will occur over a 4-year timeframe as
the proposed standards come into force
and industry works on means to
comply. After that period, the additional
R&D costs go to $0 as R&D expenditures
return to their normal levels and R&D
costs are accounted for via the ICMs—
and the RPEs behind them—used for
these segments. Note that, due to the
accelerated implementation of some
technologies, alternative 4 has higher
R&D costs than does alternative 3. The
details behind the estimated R&D costs
are provided in Chapter 7 of the draft
RIA. We request comment on our
estimated R&D costs.
639 Bureau of Economic Analysis, Table 1.1.9
Implicit Price Deflators for Gross Domestic Product;
as revised on March 27, 2014.
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(4) Summary of Costs of the Proposed
Vehicle Programs
The agencies have estimated the costs
of the proposed vehicle standards on an
annual basis for the years 2018 through
2050, and have also estimated costs for
the full model year lifetimes of MY2018
through MY2029 vehicles. Table IX–2
shows the annual costs of the proposed
standards along with net present values
using both 3 percent and 7 percent
discount rates. Table IX–3 shows the
discounted model year lifetime costs of
the proposed standards at both 3
percent and 7 percent discount rates
along with sums across applicable
model years.
TABLE IX–2—ANNUAL COSTS OF THE PREFERRED ALTERNATIVE AND NET PRESENT VALUES AT 3% AND 7% DISCOUNT
RATES USING METHOD B AND RELATIVE TO THE LESS DYNAMIC BASELINE
[$Millions of 2012$] a
New
technology
Calendar year
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2035
2040
2050
NPV,
NPV,
.................................................................................................................
.................................................................................................................
.................................................................................................................
.................................................................................................................
.................................................................................................................
.................................................................................................................
.................................................................................................................
.................................................................................................................
.................................................................................................................
.................................................................................................................
.................................................................................................................
.................................................................................................................
.................................................................................................................
.................................................................................................................
.................................................................................................................
.................................................................................................................
3% ..........................................................................................................
7% ..........................................................................................................
Compliance
116
113
112
2,173
2,161
2,224
3,455
3,647
3,736
5,309
5,334
5,376
5,399
5,856
6,316
6,987
85,926
40,516
0
0
0
18
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
104
56
R&D
Sum
0
0
0
240
240
240
240
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
759
561
116
113
112
2,432
2,407
2,470
3,701
3,653
3,742
5,315
5,340
5,381
5,405
5,862
6,322
6,992
86,789
41,133
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Note:
a For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
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.........................................................................
.........................................................................
.........................................................................
.........................................................................
.........................................................................
.........................................................................
.........................................................................
.........................................................................
.........................................................................
.........................................................................
.........................................................................
.........................................................................
.........................................................................
104
99
95
1,794
1,731
1,730
2,610
2,674
2,660
3,670
3,580
3,502
24,248
New
technology
0
0
0
15
5
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
48
Compliance
R&D
Discounted at 3%
0
0
0
198
193
187
181
0
0
0
0
0
759
104
99
95
2,007
1,928
1,921
2,795
2,678
2,664
3,673
3,583
3,506
25,055
Sum
91
84
77
1,401
1,302
1,252
1,818
1,793
1,717
2,280
2,141
2,017
15,973
New
technology
0
0
0
12
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
33
Compliance
R&D
Discounted at 7%
0
0
0
155
145
135
126
0
0
0
0
0
561
91
84
77
1,567
1,450
1,390
1,947
1,796
1,719
2,283
2,143
2,019
16,568
Sum
Note:
a For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Sum
Model year
[$Millions of 2012$] a
TABLE IX–3—DISCOUNTED MY LIFETIME COSTS OF THE PREFERRED ALTERNATIVE USING METHOD B AND RELATIVE TO THE LESS DYNAMIC BASELINE
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New technology costs begin in
MY2018 as trailers begin to add new
technology. Compliance costs begin
with the new standards with capital cost
expenditure in that year for building
and upgrading test facilities to conduct
the proposed powertrain testing in the
vocational program. Research and
development costs begin in 2021 and
last for 4 years as engine, tractor and
vocational vehicle manufacturers
conduct research and development
testing to integrate new technologies
into their engines and vehicles. We
request comment on all aspects of our
technology costs, both individual
technology costs and package costs, as
detailed in Chapter 2 of the draft RIA.
C. Changes in Fuel Consumption and
Expenditures
(1) Changes in Fuel Consumption
The new GHG and fuel consumption
standards would result in significant
improvements in the fuel efficiency of
affected vehicles, and drivers of those
vehicles would see corresponding
savings associated with reduced fuel
expenditures. The agencies have
estimated the impacts on fuel
consumption for the proposed
standards. Details behind how these
changes in fuel consumption were
calculated are presented in Section VII
of this preamble and in Chapter 5 of the
draft RIA. The total number of miles
that vehicles are driven each year is
40443
different under the regulatory
alternatives than in the reference case
due to the ‘‘rebound effect’’ (discussed
below in Section IX.E), so the changes
in fuel consumption associated with
each alternative are not strictly
proportional to differences in the fuel
economy levels they require.
The expected annual impacts on fuel
consumption are shown in Table IX–4.
Table IX–5 shows the MY lifetime
changes in fuel consumption. The
gallons shown in these tables as
reductions in fuel consumption reflect
reductions due to the proposed
standards and include any increased
consumption resulting from the rebound
effect (discussed below in Section IX.E).
TABLE IX–4—ANNUAL FUEL CONSUMPTION REDUCTIONS DUE TO THE PREFERRED ALTERNATIVE USING METHOD B AND
RELATIVE TO THE LESS DYNAMIC BASELINE
[Millions of gallons] a
Gasoline
Calendar year
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2035
2040
2050
Reference
case
.........................................................
.........................................................
.........................................................
.........................................................
.........................................................
.........................................................
.........................................................
.........................................................
.........................................................
.........................................................
.........................................................
.........................................................
.........................................................
.........................................................
.........................................................
.........................................................
6,781
6,799
6,832
6,884
6,944
7,005
7,054
7,113
7,169
7,221
7,273
7,332
7,396
7,732
8,075
8,806
Diesel
Fuel
consumption
reduction
%
Reduction
0
0
0
10
29
57
99
151
210
291
369
445
516
801
968
1,127
Reference
case
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
10
12
13
45,999
46,362
46,768
47,236
47,761
48,309
48,807
49,400
49,967
50,420
50,821
51,262
51,792
54,602
58,082
65,937
Fuel
consumption
reduction
%
Reduction
74
150
227
523
894
1,276
1,895
2,523
3,152
3,890
4,600
5,278
5,924
8,517
10,209
12,310
0
0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
8
9
10
11
16
18
19
Note:
a For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
TABLE IX–5—MODEL YEAR LIFETIME FUEL CONSUMPTION REDUCTIONS DUE TO THE PREFERRED ALTERNATIVE USING
METHOD B AND RELATIVE TO THE LESS DYNAMIC BASELINE
[Millions of Gallons] a
Gasoline
Model year
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Reference
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
.........................................................
.........................................................
.........................................................
.........................................................
.........................................................
.........................................................
.........................................................
.........................................................
.........................................................
.........................................................
.........................................................
.........................................................
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Fuel
consumption
reduction
0
0
0
7,128
7,118
7,106
7,225
7,376
7,535
7,628
7,711
7,769
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Diesel
%
Reduction
0
0
0
113
216
317
493
602
714
982
992
999
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Reference
0
0
0
2
3
4
7
8
9
13
13
13
E:\FR\FM\13JYP2.SGM
33,384
33,922
34,575
47,792
48,112
48,366
49,577
51,050
52,420
53,532
54,524
55,421
13JYP2
Fuel
consumption
reduction
754
745
738
4,424
4,568
4,703
7,628
7,967
8,289
9,984
10,181
10,360
%
Reduction
2
2
2
9
9
10
15
16
16
19
19
19
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TABLE IX–5—MODEL YEAR LIFETIME FUEL CONSUMPTION REDUCTIONS DUE TO THE PREFERRED ALTERNATIVE USING
METHOD B AND RELATIVE TO THE LESS DYNAMIC BASELINE—Continued
[Millions of Gallons] a
Gasoline
Model year
Reference
Sum ..........................................................
66,596
Diesel
Fuel
consumption
reduction
%
Reduction
5,430
Reference
8
Fuel
consumption
reduction
562,673
70,342
%
Reduction
13
Note:
a For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
(2) Fuel Savings
We have also estimated the changes in
fuel expenditures, or the fuel savings,
using fuel prices estimated in the
Energy and Information
Administration’s 2014 Annual Energy
Outlook.640 As the AEO fuel price
projections go through 2040 and not
beyond, fuel prices beyond 2040 were
set equal to the 2040 values. These
estimates do not account for the
significant uncertainty in future fuel
prices; the monetized fuel savings
would be understated if actual fuel
prices are higher (or overstated if fuel
prices are lower) than estimated. The
Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) is a
standard reference used by NHTSA and
EPA and many other government
agencies to estimate the projected price
of fuel. This has been done using both
the pre-tax and post-tax fuel prices.
Since the post-tax fuel prices are the
prices paid at fuel pumps, the fuel
savings calculated using these prices
represent the changes fuel purchasers
would see. The pre-tax fuel savings
measure the value to society of the
resources saved when less fuel is
refined and consumed. Assuming no
change in fuel tax rates, the difference
between these two columns represents
the reduction in fuel tax revenues that
would be received by state and federal
governments, or about $240 million in
2021 and $5.2 billion by 2050 as shown
in Table IX–6 where annual changes in
monetized fuel savings are shown along
with net present values using 3 percent
and 7 percent discount rates. Table IX–
7 Table IX–8 show the discounted
model year lifetime fuel savings using 3
percent and 7 percent discount rates,
respectively.
TABLE IX–6—ANNUAL FUEL SAVINGS AND NET PRESENT VALUES AT 3% AND 7% DISCOUNT RATES USING METHOD B
FOR THE PREFERRED ALTERNATIVE AND RELATIVE TO THE LESS DYNAMIC BASELINE
[$Millions of 2012$] a
Fuel savings—retail
Fuel savings—untaxed
Calendar year
Gasoline
ebenthall on DSK3VPTVN1PROD with MISCELLANEOUS
2018 .............................
2019 .............................
2020 .............................
2021 .............................
2022 .............................
2023 .............................
2024 .............................
2025 .............................
2026 .............................
2027 .............................
2028 .............................
2029 .............................
2030 .............................
2035 .............................
2040 .............................
2050 .............................
NPV, 3% ......................
NPR, 7% ......................
Diesel
$0
0
0
31
92
183
324
496
695
976
1,243
1,511
1,770
2,921
3,778
4,397
37,319
15,211
$261
540
834
1,958
3,413
4,936
7,426
10,035
12,683
15,883
18,938
21,974
24,905
38,047
48,300
58,241
506,971
212,373
Sum
Gasoline
$261
540
834
1,989
3,505
5,119
7,750
10,531
13,378
16,859
20,181
23,485
26,675
40,968
52,078
62,638
544,290
227,584
$0
0
0
27
80
160
285
436
613
861
1,099
1,338
1,571
2,621
3,427
3,988
33,603
13,663
Diesel
$227
472
731
1,723
3,015
4,372
6,594
8,937
11,321
14,215
16,980
19,745
22,422
34,621
44,357
53,486
461,992
192,984
Sum
$227
472
731
1,750
3,095
4,532
6,879
9,372
11,934
15,076
18,079
21,083
23,993
37,242
47,783
57,474
495,595
206,646
Change in
transfer
$34
68
103
239
410
587
871
1,158
1,445
1,782
2,102
2,402
2,682
3,726
4,295
5,164
48,695
20,937
Note:
a For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
640 U.S. Energy Information Administration,
Annual Energy Outlook 2014, Early Release; Report
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Number DOE/EIA–0383ER (2014), December 16,
2013.
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TABLE IX–7—DISCOUNTED MODEL YEAR LIFETIME FUEL SAVINGS, 3% DISCOUNT RATE USING METHOD B FOR THE
PREFERRED ALTERNATIVE AND RELATIVE TO THE LESS DYNAMIC BASELINE
[$Millions of 2012$] a
Fuel savings—retail
Fuel savings—untaxed
Model year
Gasoline
2018 .............................
2019 .............................
2020 .............................
2021 .............................
2022 .............................
2023 .............................
2024 .............................
2025 .............................
2026 .............................
2027 .............................
2028 .............................
2029 .............................
Sum ..............................
Diesel
$0
0
0
258
487
700
1,067
1,277
1,484
2,001
1,981
1,957
11,211
$2,183
2,123
2,066
12,178
12,369
12,513
19,934
20,435
20,858
24,642
24,610
24,536
178,448
Sum
Gasoline
$2,183
2,123
2,066
12,436
12,856
13,212
21,001
21,712
22,342
26,643
26,592
26,493
189,659
Diesel
$0
0
0
228
431
620
947
1,136
1,323
1,787
1,772
1,754
9,997
$1,937
1,890
1,844
10,898
11,094
11,247
17,953
18,441
18,858
22,319
22,329
22,298
161,107
Sum
$1,937
1,890
1,844
11,126
11,525
11,867
18,901
19,577
20,180
24,106
24,101
24,052
171,105
Change in
transfer
$246
234
222
1,310
1,331
1,346
2,100
2,135
2,161
2,537
2,491
2,441
18,554
Note:
a For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
TABLE IX–8—DISCOUNTED MODEL YEAR LIFETIME FUEL SAVINGS, 7% DISCOUNT RATE USING METHOD B FOR THE
PREFERRED ALTERNATIVE AND RELATIVE TO THE LESS DYNAMIC BASELINE
[Millions of 2012] a
Fuel savings—retail
Fuel savings—untaxed
Model year
Gasoline
2018 .............................
2019 .............................
2020 .............................
2021 .............................
2022 .............................
2023 .............................
2024 .............................
2025 .............................
2026 .............................
2027 .............................
2028 .............................
2029 .............................
Sum ..............................
Diesel
$0
0
0
163
295
408
599
690
772
1,003
956
909
5,794
$1,529
1,428
1,331
7,538
7,383
7,200
11,055
10,917
10,734
12,215
11,741
11,269
94,339
Sum
Gasoline
$1,529
1,428
1,331
7,701
7,678
7,607
11,654
11,607
11,505
13,218
12,697
12,179
100,134
Diesel
$0
0
0
143
260
361
531
613
687
894
854
814
5,157
$1,352
1,267
1,185
6,731
6,608
6,458
9,938
9,834
9,688
11,046
10,636
10,228
84,971
Sum
$1,352
1,267
1,185
6,874
6,869
6,819
10,469
10,447
10,374
11,940
11,490
11,041
90,128
Change in
transfer
$176
161
146
827
810
789
1,186
1,160
1,131
1,278
1,206
1,137
10,005
Note:
a For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
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D. Maintenance Expenditures
The agencies expect minimal
increases in maintenance costs under
the proposed standards, having
estimated increased maintenance costs
associated only with installation of
lower rolling resistance tires. We expect
that, when replaced, the lower rolling
resistance tires would be replaced by
equivalent performing tires throughout
the vehicle lifetime. As such, the
incremental increases in costs for lower
rolling resistance tires would be
incurred throughout the vehicle lifetime
at intervals consistent with current tire
replacement intervals. Those intervals
are difficult to quantify given the variety
of vehicles and operating modes within
the HD industry. We detail the inputs
used to estimate maintenance impacts
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in Chapter 7.3.3 of the draft RIA. We
request comment on all aspects of the
maintenance estimates. Specifically, for
electrified vehicles (mild/strong
hybrids) which are expected in
alternatives 3 and 4 and in each vehicle
category, we have not estimated any
increased maintenance costs. We have
heard from at least one source 641 that
strong hybrid maintenance can be
higher in some ways, including possible
battery replacement, but may also be
much lower for some vehicle systems
like brakes and general engine wear.
Given the uncertainty, we have not
estimated maintenance costs
specifically for these electrified vehicles
but request comment so that we might
be able to include potential costs in the
final rule. We also request comment on
any other maintenance costs that should
be considered along with supporting
data.
Table IX–9 shows the annual
increased maintenance costs of the
preferred alternative along with net
present values using both 3 percent and
7 percent discount rates. Table IX–10
shows the discounted model year
lifetime increased maintenance costs of
the preferred alternative at both 3
percent and 7 percent discount rates
along with sums across applicable
model years.
641 Allison Transmission’s Responses to EPA’s
Hybrid Questions, November 6, 2014.
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Federal Register / Vol. 80, No. 133 / Monday, July 13, 2015 / Proposed Rules
TABLE IX–9—ANNUAL MAINTENANCE
EXPENDITURE INCREASE DUE TO
THE PROPOSAL AND NET PRESENT
VALUES AT 3% AND 7% DISCOUNT
RATES USING METHOD B AND RELATIVE TO THE LESS DYNAMIC BASE-
TABLE IX–9—ANNUAL MAINTENANCE
EXPENDITURE INCREASE DUE TO
THE PROPOSAL AND NET PRESENT
VALUES AT 3% AND 7% DISCOUNT
RATES USING METHOD B AND RELATIVE TO THE LESS DYNAMIC BASELINE—Continued
LINE
[$Millions of 2012$] a
Calendar year
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
[$Millions of 2012$] a
Maintenance
expenditure
increase
......................................
......................................
......................................
......................................
......................................
......................................
......................................
......................................
TABLE IX–9—ANNUAL MAINTENANCE
EXPENDITURE INCREASE DUE TO
THE PROPOSAL AND NET PRESENT
VALUES AT 3% AND 7% DISCOUNT
RATES USING METHOD B AND RELATIVE TO THE LESS DYNAMIC BASELINE—Continued
$6
11
16
28
39
50
64
78
Maintenance
expenditure
increase
Calendar year
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2035
2040
2050
[$Millions of 2012$] a
......................................
......................................
......................................
......................................
......................................
......................................
......................................
......................................
90
104
116
127
127
127
127
127
Maintenance
expenditure
increase
Calendar year
NPV, 3% ...............................
NPV, 7% ...............................
1,796
860
Note:
a For an explanation of analytical Methods A
and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and
more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
TABLE IX–10—DISCOUNTED MY LIFETIME MAINTENANCE EXPENDITURE INCREASE DUE TO THE PROPOSAL USING METHOD
B AND RELATIVE TO THE LESS DYNAMIC BASELINE
[$Millions of 2012$] a
3% Discount
rate
Model year
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
7% Discount
rate
.........................................................................................................................................................................
.........................................................................................................................................................................
.........................................................................................................................................................................
.........................................................................................................................................................................
.........................................................................................................................................................................
.........................................................................................................................................................................
.........................................................................................................................................................................
.........................................................................................................................................................................
.........................................................................................................................................................................
.........................................................................................................................................................................
.........................................................................................................................................................................
.........................................................................................................................................................................
51
49
47
90
89
89
112
113
102
116
111
101
36
33
31
57
54
52
63
61
53
58
54
47
Sum ..................................................................................................................................................................
1,071
600
Note:
a For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
E. Analysis of the Rebound Effect
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The ‘‘rebound effect’’ has been
defined a number of ways in the
literature, and one common definition
states that the rebound effect is the
increase in demand for an energy
service when the cost of the energy
service is reduced due to efficiency
improvements.642 643 644 In the context
642 Winebrake, J.J., Green, E.H., Comer, B.,
Corbett, J.J., Froman, S., 2012. Estimating the direct
rebound effect for on-road freight transportation.
Energy Policy 48, 252–259.
643 Greene, D.L., Kahn, J.R., Gibson, R.C., 1999,
‘‘Fuel economy rebound effect for U.S. household
vehicles’’, The Energy Journal, 20.
644 For a discussion of the wide range of
definitions found in the literature, see Appendix D:
Discrepancy in Rebound Effect Definitions, in EERA
(2014), ‘‘Research to Inform Analysis of the HeavyDuty vehicle Rebound Effect’’, Excerpts of Draft
Final Report of Phase 1 under EPA contract EP–C–
13–025. (Docket ID: EPA–HQ–OAR–2014–0827).
See also Greening, L.A., Greene, D.L., Difiglio, C.,
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of heavy-duty vehicles (HDVs), this can
be interpreted as an increase in HDV
fuel consumption resulting from more
intensive vehicle use in response to
increased vehicle fuel efficiency.645
Although much of this vehicle use
increase is likely to take the form of
increases in the number of miles
vehicles are driven, it can also take the
form of increases in the loaded weight
at which vehicles operate or changes in
traffic and road conditions vehicles
encounter as operators alter their routes
2000, ‘‘Energy efficiency and consumption—the
rebound effect—a survey’’, Energy Policy, 28, 389–
401.
645 We discuss other potential rebound effects in
section IX.D.3, such as the indirect and economywide rebound effects. Note also that there is more
than one way to measure HDV energy services and
vehicle use. The agencies’ analyses use VMT as a
measure (as discussed below); other potential
measures include ton-miles, cube-miles, and fuel
consumption.
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and schedules in response to improved
fuel efficiency. Because this more
intensive use consumes fuel and
generates emissions, it reduces the fuel
savings and avoided emissions that
would otherwise be expected to result
from the increases in fuel efficiency this
rulemaking proposes.
Unlike the light-duty vehicle (LDV)
rebound effect, the HDV rebound effect
has not been extensively studied.
According to a 2010 HDV report
published by the National Research
Council of the National Academies
(NRC),646 it is ‘‘not possible to provide
646 Committee to Assess Fuel Economy
Technologies for Medium- and Heavy-Duty
Vehicles; National Research Council;
Transportation Research Board (2010).
‘‘Technologies and Approaches to Reducing the
Fuel Consumption of Medium- and Heavy-Duty
Vehicles,’’ Washington, DC. The National
Academies Press. Available electronically from the
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Federal Register / Vol. 80, No. 133 / Monday, July 13, 2015 / Proposed Rules
a confident measure of the rebound
effect,’’ yet NRC concluded that a HDV
rebound effect probably exists and that,
‘‘estimates of fuel savings from
regulatory standards will be somewhat
misestimated if the rebound effect is not
considered.’’ Although we believe the
HDV rebound effect needs to be studied
in more detail, we have nevertheless
attempted to capture its potential effect
in our analysis of these proposed rules,
rather than to await further study. We
have elected to do so because the
magnitude of the rebound effect is an
important determinant of the actual fuel
savings and emission reductions that are
likely to result from adopting stricter
fuel efficiency and GHG emission
standards.
In our analysis and discussion below,
we focus on one widely-used metric to
estimate the rebound effect associated
with all types of more intensive vehicle
use, the increase in vehicle miles
traveled (VMT) that results from
improved fuel efficiency. VMT can often
provide a reasonable approximation for
all types of more intensive vehicle use.
For simplicity, we refer to this as ‘‘the
VMT rebound effect’’ or ‘‘VMT
rebound’’ throughout this section,
although we acknowledge that it is an
approximation to the rebound effect
associated with all types of more
intensive vehicle use. The agencies use
our VMT rebound estimates to generate
VMT inputs that are then entered into
the EPA MOVES national emissions
inventory model and the Volpe Center’s
HD CAFE model. Both of these models
use these inputs along with many others
to generate projected emissions and fuel
consumption changes resulting from
each of the regulatory alternatives
analyzed.
Using VMT rebound to approximate
the fuel consumption impact from all
types of more intensive vehicle use may
not be completely accurate. Many
factors other than distance traveled—for
example, a vehicle’s loaded weight—
play a role in determining its fuel
consumption, so it is also important to
consider how changes in these factors
are correlated with variation in vehicle
miles traveled. Empirical estimates of
the effect of weight on HDV fuel
consumption vary, but universally show
that loaded weight has some effect on
fuel consumption that is independent of
distance traveled. Therefore, the
product of vehicle payload and miles
traveled, which typically is expressed in
units of ‘‘ton-miles’’ or ‘‘tonkilometers’’, has also been considered as
National Academies Press Web site at https://
www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=12845 (last
accessed September 10, 2010).
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a metric to approximate the rebound
effect. Because this metric’s value
depends on both payload and distance,
it is important to note that changes in
these two variables can have different
impacts on HDV fuel consumption. This
is because the fuel consumed by HDV
freight transport is determined by
several vehicle attributes including
engine and accessory efficiencies,
aerodynamic characteristics, tire rolling
resistance and total vehicle mass—
including payload carried, if any.
Other factors such as vehicle route
and traffic patterns can also affect how
each of these vehicle attributes
contributes to the overall fuel
consumption of a vehicle. While it
seems intuitive that if all of these other
conditions remain constant, a vehicle
driving the same route and distance
twice will consume twice as much fuel
as driving that same route once.
However, because of the other vehicle
attributes, it is less intuitive how a
change in vehicle payload would affect
vehicle fuel consumption. We request
comment on how the agencies should
consider the relationship between
changes in vehicle miles traveled,
changes in vehicle ton-miles achieved,
and overall fuel consumption when
considering how best to measure the
rebound effect.
Because the factors influencing HDV
VMT rebound are generally different
from those affecting LDV VMT rebound,
much of the research on the LDV sector
is likely to not apply to the HDV sector.
For example, the owners and operators
of LDVs may respond to the costs and
benefits associated with changes in their
personal vehicle’s fuel efficiency very
differently than a HDV fleet owner or
operator would view the costs and
benefits (e.g., profits, offering more
competitive prices for services)
associated with changes in their HDVs’
fuel efficiency. To the extent the
response differs, such differences may
be smaller for HD pickups and vans,
which share some similarities with
LDVs. As discussed in the 2010 NRC HD
report, one difference from the LDV case
is that when calculating the change in
HDV costs that causes the rebound
effect, it is more important to consider
all components of HDV operating costs.
The costs of labor and fuel generally
constitute the two largest shares of HDV
operating costs, depending on the price
of petroleum, distance traveled, type of
vehicle, and commodity transported (if
any).647 648 Equipment depreciation
Transportation Research Institute,
An Analysis of the Operational Costs of Trucking,
September 2013.
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647 American
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40447
costs associated with the purchase or
lease of an HDV are another significant
component of total operating costs. Even
when HDV purchases involve upfront,
one-time payments, HDV operators must
recover the depreciation in the value of
their vehicles resulting from their use,
so this is likely to be considered as an
operating cost they will attempt to pass
on to final consumers of HDV operator
services.
Estimates of the impact of fuel
efficiency standards on HDV VMT, and
hence fuel consumption, should
account for changes in all of these
components of HDV operating costs.
The higher the net savings in total
operating costs is, the higher the
expected rebound effect would be.
Conversely, if higher HDV purchase
costs outweigh future cost savings and
total operating costs increase, HDV costs
could rise, which would likely result in
a decrease in HDV VMT. In theory,
other cost changes resulting from any
requirement to achieve higher fuel
efficiency, such as changes in
maintenance costs or insurance rates,
should also be taken into account,
although information on these elements
of HDV operating costs is extremely
limited. In this analysis, the agencies
adapt estimates of the VMT rebound
effect to project the response of HDV use
to the estimated changes in total
operating costs that result from the
proposed Phase 2 standards. We seek
comment and data on how our proposed
standards could impact these and other
types of HDV operating costs, as well as
on our procedure for adapting the VMT
rebound effect to estimate the response
of HDV use to changes in total operating
costs.
Since businesses are profit-driven,
one would expect their decisions to be
based on the costs and benefits of
different operating decisions, both in
the near-term and long-term.
Specifically, one would expect
commercial HDV operators to take into
account changes in overall operating
costs per mile when making decisions
about HDV use and setting rates they
charge for their services. If demand for
those services is sensitive to the rates
HDV operators charge, HDV VMT could
change in response to the effect of
higher fuel efficiency on the rates HDV
operators charge. If demand for HDV
services is insensitive to price (e.g., due
to lack of good substitutes), however, or
if changes in HDV operating costs due
to the proposed standards are not
648 Transport Canada, Operating Cost of Trucks,
2005. See https://www.tc.gc.ca/eng/policy/reportacg-operatingcost2005-2005-e-2-1727.htm, accessed
on July 16, 2010.
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passed on to final consumers of HDV
operator services, the proposed
standards may have a limited impact on
HDV VMT.
The following sections describe the
factors affecting the magnitude of HDV
VMT rebound; review the econometric
and other evidence related to HDV VMT
rebound; and summarize how we
estimated the HDV rebound effect for
this proposal.
(1) Factors Affecting the Magnitude of
HDV VMT Rebound
The magnitude and timing of HDV
VMT rebound result from the
interaction of many different factors.649
Fuel savings resulting from fuel
efficiency standards may cause HDV
operators and their customers to change
their patterns of HDV use and fuel
consumption in a variety of ways. For
example, HDV operators may pass on
the fuel cost savings to their customers
by decreasing prices for shipping
products or providing services, which in
turn could stimulate more demand for
those products and services (e.g.,
increases in freight output), and result
in higher VMT. As discussed later in
this section, HDV VMT rebound
estimates determined via other proxy
elasticities vary widely, but in no case
has there been an estimate that fully
offsets the fuel saved due to efficiency
improvements (i.e., no rebound effect
greater than or equal to 100 percent).
If fuel cost savings are passed on to
the HDV operators’ customers (e.g.,
logistics businesses, manufacturers,
retailers, municipalities, utilities
consumers), those customers might
reorganize their logistics and
distribution networks over time to take
advantage of lower operating costs. For
example, customers might order more
frequent shipments or choose products
that entail longer shipping distances,
while freight carriers might divert some
shipments to trucks from other shipping
modes such as rail, barge or air. In
addition, customers might choose to
reduce their number of warehouses,
reduce shipment rates or make smaller
but more frequent shipments, all of
which could lead to an increase in HDV
VMT. Ultimately, fuel cost savings
could ripple through the entire
economy, thus increasing demand for
goods and services shipped by trucks,
factors are discussed more fully in a
report to EPA from EERA, which illustrates in a
series of diagrams the complex system of decisions
and decision-makers that could influence the
magnitude and timing of the rebound effect. See
Sections 2.2.2, 2.2.3, 2.2.4, and 2.3 in EERA (2014),
‘‘Research to Inform Analysis of the Heavy-Duty
Vehicle Rebound Effect’’, Excerpts of Draft Final
Report of Phase 1 under EPA contract EP–C–13–
025.
and therefore increase HDV VMT due to
increased gross domestic product (GDP).
Conversely, if fuel efficiency
standards lead to net increases in the
total costs of HDV operation because
fuel cost savings do not fully offset the
increase in HDV purchase prices and
associated depreciation costs, then the
price of HDV services could rise. This
is likely to spur a decrease in HDV
VMT, and perhaps a shift to alternative
shipping modes. These effects could
also ripple through the economy and
affect GDP. Note, however, that we
project fuel cost savings will offset
technology costs in our analysis
supporting our proposed standards.
It is also important to note that any
increase in HDV VMT resulting from
our proposed standards may be offset, to
some extent, by a decrease in VMT by
older HDVs. This may occur if lower
fuel costs resulting from our standards
cause multi-vehicle fleet operators to
shift VMT to newer, more efficient
HDVs in their fleet or cause operators
with newer, more efficient HDVs to be
more successful at winning contracts
than operators with older HDVs.
Also, as discussed in Chapter 8.3.3 of
the Draft RIA, the magnitude of the
rebound effect is likely to be influenced
by the extent of any market failures that
affect the demand for more fuel efficient
HDVs, as well as by HDV operators’
responses to their perception of the
tradeoff between higher upfront HDV
purchase costs versus lower but
uncertain future expenditures on fuel.
(2) Econometric and Other Evidence
Related to HDV VMT Rebound
As discussed above, HDV VMT
rebound is defined as the change in
HDV VMT that occurs in response to an
increase in HDV fuel efficiency. We are
not aware of any studies that directly
estimate this elasticity 650 for the U.S.
This section discusses econometric
analyses of other related elasticities that
could potentially be used as a proxy for
measuring HDV VMT rebound, as well
as other analyses that may provide
insight into the magnitude of HDV VMT
rebound. We seek comment on the
applicability of the findings from these
analyses, as well as additional data and
research on the topic of HDV VMT
rebound.
One of the challenges to developing
robust econometric analyses of HDV
649 These
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650 Elasticity is the measurement of how
responsive an economic variable is to a change in
another. For example: price elasticity of demand is
a measure used in economics to show the
responsiveness, or elasticity, of the quantity
demanded of a good or service to a change in its
price. More precisely, it gives the percentage change
in quantity demanded in response to a one percent
change in price.
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VMT rebound in the U.S. is data
limitations. For example, the main
source of time-series HDV fuel
efficiency data in the U.S. is derived
from aggregate fuel consumption and
HDV VMT data. This may introduce
interdependence or ‘‘simultaneity’’
between measures of HDV VMT and
HDV fuel efficiency, because estimates
of HDV fuel efficiency are derived partly
from HDV VMT. This mutual
interdependence makes it difficult to
isolate the causal effect of HDV fuel
efficiency on HDV VMT and to measure
the response of HDV VMT to changes in
HDV fuel efficiency.
Data on other important determinants
of HDV VMT, such as freight shipping
rates, shipment sizes, HDV payloads,
and congestion levels on key HDV
routes is also limited, of questionable
reliability, or unavailable. Additionally,
data on HDVs and their use is usually
only available at an aggregate level,
making it difficult to evaluate potential
differences in determinants of VMT for
different types of HDV operations (e.g.,
long-haul freight vs. regional delivery
operations) or vehicle sub-classes (e.g.,
utility vehicles vs. school buses).
Another challenge inherent in using
econometric techniques to measure the
response of HDV VMT to HDV fuel
efficiency is developing model
specifications that incorporate the
mathematical form and range of
explanatory variables necessary to
produce reliable estimates of HDV VMT
rebound. Many different factors can
influence HDV VMT, and the complex
relationships among those factors
should be considered when measuring
the rebound effect.651
In practice, however, most studies
have employed simplified models.
Many use price variables (e.g., price per
gallon of fuel, or fuel cost per mile
driven) and some measure of aggregate
economic activity, such as GDP.
However, some of these studies exclude
potentially important variables such as
the amount of road capacity (which
affects travel speeds and may be related
to other important characteristics of
highway infrastructure), or the price or
availability of competing forms of
freight transport such as rail or barge
(i.e., characteristics of the overall freight
transport network).
651 A useful framework for understanding how
various responses interact to determine the rebound
effect is presented in Section 2 and Appendix B of
De Borger, B. and Mulalic, I. (2012), ‘‘The
determinants of fuel use in the trucking industry—
volume, fleet characteristics and the rebound
effect’’, Transportation Policy, Volume 24, pp. 284–
295. See also Section 3.4 of EERA (2014), ‘‘Research
to Inform Analysis of the Heavy-Duty vehicle
Rebound Effect’’, Excerpts of Draft Final Report of
Phase 1 under EPA contract EP–C–13–025.
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(a) Fuel Price and Fuel Cost Elasticities
This sub-section reviews econometric
analyses of the change in HDV use
(measured in VMT, ton-mile, or fuel
consumption) in response to changes in
fuel price ($/gallon) or fuel cost ($/mile
or $/ton-mile). The studies presented
below attempt to estimate these
elasticities in the HDV sector using
varying approaches and data sources.
Gately (1990) employed an
econometric analysis of U.S. data for the
years 1966–1988 to examine the
relationship between HDV VMT and
average fuel cost per mile, real Gross
National Product (GNP), and variables
capturing the effects of fuel shortages in
1974 and 1979.652 The study found no
statistically significant relationship
between HDV VMT and fuel cost per
mile. Gately’s estimates of the elasticity
of HDV VMT with respect to fuel cost
per mile were ¥0.035 with and ¥0.029
without the fuel shortage variables, but
both estimates had large standard errors.
However, Gately’s study was beset by
numerous statistical problems, which
raise serious questions about the
reliability of its results.653
More recently, Matos and Silva (2011)
analyzed road freight transportation
sector data for the years 1987–2006 in
Portugal to identify the determinants of
demand for HDV freight
transportation.654 Using a reduced-form
equation relating HDV use (measured in
ton-km) to economic activity (GDP) and
the energy cost of HDV use (measured
in fuel cost per ton-km carried), these
authors estimated the elasticity of HDV
ton-km with respect to energy costs to
be ¥0.241. An important strength of
Matos and Silva’s study is that it also
estimated this same elasticity using a
procedure that accounted for the effect
of potential mutual causality between
HDV ton-km and energy costs, and
arrived at an identical value.
Differences between HDV use and the
level of highway service in Portugal and
in the U.S. might limit the applicability
of Matos and Silva’s result to the U.S.
The volume and mix of commodities
could differ between the two nations, as
could the levels of congestion on their
652 Gately, D., The U.S. Demand for Highway
Travel and Motor Fuels, The Energy Journal,
Volume 11, No. 3, July 1990, pp.59–73.
653 The most important of these problems—
similar historical time trends in the model’s
dependent variable and the measures used to
explain its historical variation—can lead to
‘‘spurious regressions,’’ or the appearance of
behavioral relationships that are simply artifacts of
the similarity (or correlation) in historical trends
among the model’s variables.
654 Matos, F.J.F., and Silva, F.J.F., ‘‘The Rebound
Effect on Road Freight Transport: Empirical
Evidence from Portugal,’’ Energy Policy, 39, 2011,
pp. 2833–2841.
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respective highway networks, transport
distances, the extent of intermodal
competition, and the characteristics of
HDVs themselves. HDVs also operate
over a more limited highway network in
Portugal than in the United States.
Unfortunately, it is difficult to
anticipate how these differences might
cause Matos and Silva’s elasticity
estimates to differ from what we might
find in the U.S. Finally, their analysis
focused on HDV freight transport and
did not consider non-freight uses of
HDVs, which somewhat limits its
usefulness in the analysis of this
proposed rulemaking.
De Borger and Mulalic (2012)
examined the determinants of fuel use
in the Denmark HDV freight transport
sector for the years 1980–2007. The
authors developed a system of equations
that capture linkages among the demand
for HDV freight transport, HDV fleet
characteristics, and HDV fuel
consumption.655 As De Borger and
Mulalic state, ‘‘we precisely define and
estimate a rebound effect of
improvements in fuel efficiency in the
trucking industry: Behavioral
adjustments in the industry imply that
an exogenous improvement in fuel
efficiency reduces fuel use less than
proportionately. Our best estimate of
this effect is approximately 10 percent
in the short run and 17 percent in the
long run, so that a 1 percent
improvement in fuel efficiency reduces
fuel use by 0.90 percent (short-run) to
0.83 percent (long-run).’’
While De Borger and Mulalic capture
a number of important responses that
contribute to the rebound effect, some
caution is appropriate when using their
results to estimate the VMT rebound
effect for this proposal. Like the Matos
and Silva study, this study examined
HDV activity in another country,
Denmark, which has a less-developed
highway system, lower levels of freight
railroad service than the U.S., and is
also likely to have a different
composition of freight shipping activity.
Although the effect of some of these
differences is unclear, greater
competition from rail shipping in the
U.S. and the resulting potential for
lower trucking costs to divert some rail
freight to truck could cause the VMT
rebound effect to be larger in the U.S.
than De Borger and Mulalic’s estimate
for Denmark.
On the other hand, if freight networks
are denser and commodity types are
more homogenous in Denmark than the
655 De Borger, B. and Mulalic, I., ‘‘The
determinates of fuel use in the trucking industry—
volume, fleet characteristics and the rebound
effect’’, Transportation Policy, Volume 24,
November 2012, pp. 284–295.
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U.S., then shippers may have wider
freight trucking options. If this is the
case, shippers in Denmark might be
more sensitive to changes in freight
costs, which could cause the rebound
effect in Denmark to be larger than the
U.S. Like the Matos and Silva study,
this analysis also focuses on freight
trucking and does not consider nonfreight HDVs (e.g. vocational vehicles).
We have been unable to identify
adequate data to employ De Borger and
Mulalic’s model for the U.S. (mainly
because time-series data on freight
carriage by trucks, driver wages, and
vehicle prices in the U.S. are limited).
The Volpe National Transportation
Systems Center previously has
developed a series of travel forecasting
models for the Federal Highway
Administration (FHWA).656 Work
conducted by the Volpe Center during
2009–2011 to develop the original
version of FHWA’s forecasting model
was presented in the Regulatory Impact
Analysis for the HD GHG Phase 1 rule
(see Table 9–2 in that document, which
is reproduced below as Table IX–11).657
In the analysis for the Phase 1 rule,
Volpe estimated both state-level and
national aggregate models to forecast
HDV single unit and combination truck
VMT that included fuel cost per mile as
an explanatory variable. This analysis
used data from 1970–2008 for its
national aggregate model, and data for
the 50 individual states from 1994–2008
for its state-level model.658 659
656 FHWA Travel Analysis Framework
Development of VMT Forecasting Models for Use
by the Federal Highway Administration May 12,
2014 https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policyinformation/
tables/vmt/vmt_model_dev.pdf. Volpe’s work was
advised by a panel of approximately 20 experts in
the measurement, analysis, and forecasting of
travel, including academic researchers,
transportation consultants, and members of local,
state, and federal government transportation
agencies. It was also summarized in the paper
‘‘Developing a Multi-Level Vehicle Miles of Travel
Forecasting Model,’’ November, 2011, which was
presented to the Transportation Research Board’s
91st Annual Meeting in January, 2012.
657 EPA/NHTSA, August 2011. Chapter 9.3.3,
Final Rulemaking to Establish Greenhouse gas
Emission Standards & Fuel Efficiency Standards for
Medium-and Heavy-Duty Engines and Vehicles,
Regulatory Impact Analysis. EPA–420–R–11–901.
(https://www.epa.gov/otaq/climate/documents/
420r11901.pdf).
658 Combination trucks are defined as ‘‘all [Class
7/8] trucks designed to be used in combination with
one or more trailers with a gross vehicle weight
rating over 26,000 lbs.’’ (AFDC, 2014; ORNL,
2013c). Single-unit trucks are defined as ‘‘single
frame trucks that have 2-axles and at least 6 tires
or a gross vehicle weight rating exceeding 10,000
lbs.’’ (FHWA, 2013).
659 The national-level and functional class VMT
forecasting models utilize aggregate time-series data
for the nation as a whole, so that only a single
measure of each variable is available during each
time period (i.e., year). In contrast, the state-level
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Volpe analysts tested a large number
of different specifications for its
national and state level models that
incorporated the effects of factors such
as aggregate economic activity and its
composition, the volume of U.S. exports
and imports, and factors affecting the
cost of producing trucking services (e.g.,
driver wage rates, truck purchase prices,
and fuel costs), and the extent and
capacity of the U.S. and states’ highway
networks.
Table IX–11 summarizes Volpe’s
Phase 1 estimates of the elasticity of
truck VMT with respect to fuel cost per
mile.660 As it indicates, these estimates
vary widely, and the estimates based on
state-level and national data differ
substantially.
TABLE IX–11—SUMMARY OF VOLPE CENTER ESTIMATES OF ELASTICITY OF TRUCK VMT WITH RESPECT TO FUEL COST
PER MILE
National data
State data
Truck type
Short run
Single Unit .......................................................................................................
Combination ....................................................................................................
13–22%
N/A
Long run
28–45%
12–14%
Short run
3–8%
N/A
Long run
12–21%
4–5%
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Volpe staff conducted additional
analysis of the models that yielded the
estimates of the elasticity of truck VMT
with respect to fuel cost per mile
reported in Table IX–11, using updated
information on fuel costs and other
variables appearing in these models,
together with revised historical data on
truck VMT provided by DOT’s Federal
Highway Administration. The newlyavailable data, statistical procedures
employed in conducting this additional
analysis, and its results are summarized
in materials that can be found in the
docket for this rulemaking. This new
Volpe analysis was not available at the
time the agencies selected the values of
the rebound effect for this proposal, but
the agencies will consider this work and
any other work in the analysis
supporting the final rule.
Finally, EPA has contracted with
Energy and Environmental Research
Associates (EERA), LLC to analyze the
HDV rebound effect for regulatory
assessment purposes. Excerpts of
EERA’s initial report to EPA are
included in the docket and contain
detailed qualitative discussions of the
rebound effect as well as data sources
that could be used in quantitative
analysis.661 EERA also conducted
follow-on quantitative analyses focused
on estimating the impact of fuel prices
on VMT and fuel consumption. We have
included a working paper in the docket
on this work, and we seek comment on
this work.662 Note that EERA’s working
paper was not available at the time the
agencies conducted the analysis of the
rebound effect for this proposal, but the
agencies will consider this work and
any other work in the analysis
supporting the final rule.
There are reasons to be cautious about
interpreting the elasticities from the
studies reviewed in this section as a
measure of VMT rebound resulting from
our proposed standards. For example,
vehicle capacity and loaded weight can
vary dynamically in the HDV sector—
possibly in response to changes in fuel
price and fuel efficiency—and data on
these measures are limited. This makes
it difficult to confidently infer a direct
relationship between trucking output
(e.g., ton-miles carried) and VMT
assuming a constant average payload.
In addition, fuel cost per mile—
calculated by multiplying fuel price per
gallon by fuel efficiency in gallons per
mile—and fuel price may be imprecise
proxies for an improvement in fuel
efficiency, because the response of VMT
to these variables may differ. For
example, if truck operators are more
attentive to variation in fuel prices than
to changes in fuel efficiency, then fuel
price or fuel cost elasticities may
overstate the true magnitude of the
rebound effect.
Similarly, there is some evidence in
the literature that demand for crude
petroleum and refined fuels is more
responsive to increases than to
decreases in their prices, although this
research is not specific to the HDV
sector.663 Since improved fuel efficiency
typically causes fuel costs for HDVs to
fall (and assuming fuel costs are not
fully offset by increases in vehicle
purchase prices), fuel price or cost
elasticities derived from historical
periods when fuel prices were
increasing or fuel efficiency was
declining may also overstate the
magnitude of the rebound effect. An
additional unknown is that HDV
operators may factor fuel prices and fuel
costs into their decision-making about
rates to charge for their service
differently from the way they
incorporate initial vehicle purchase
costs.
Despite these limitations, elasticities
with respect to fuel price and fuel cost
can provide some insight into the
magnitude of the HDV VMT rebound
effect. The agencies request comment on
all of the studies presented in this
section.
VMT models have an additional data dimension,
since both their dependent variable (VMT) and
most explanatory variables have 51 separate
observations available for each time period (one for
each of the 50 states as well as Washington, DC).
In this context, the states represent a ‘‘crosssection,’’ and a continuous annual sequence of
these cross-sections is available.
660 One drawback of the fuel cost measure
employed in Volpe’s models is that it is based on
estimates of fuel economy derived from truck VMT
and fuel consumption, which introduces the
potential for mutual causality (or ‘‘simultaneity’’)
between VMT and the fuel cost measure and makes
the effect of the latter difficult to isolate. This may
cause their estimates of the sensitivity of truck VMT
to fuel costs to be inaccurate, although the direction
of any resulting bias is difficult to anticipate.
661 EERA (2014), ‘‘Research to Inform Analysis of
the Heavy-Duty vehicle Rebound Effect’’, Excerpts
of Draft Final Report of Phase 1 under EPA contract
EP–C–13–025.
662 EERA (2015), ‘‘Working Paper on Fuel Price
Elasticities for Heavy Duty Vehicles’’, Draft Final
Report of Phase 2 under EPA contract EP–C–11–
046.
663 Gately, D. 1993. The Imperfect PriceReversibility of World Oil Demand. The Energy
Journal, International Association for Energy
Economics, vol. 14 (4), pp. 163–182; Dargay, J.M.,
Gately, D. 1997. The demand for transportation
fuels: Imperfect price-reversibility? Transportation
Research Part B 31(1); and Sentenac-Chemin, E.,
2012. Is the price effect on fuel consumption
symmetric? Some evidence from an empirical
study. Energy Policy, vol. 41, pp. 59–65.
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(b) Freight Price Elasticities
Freight price elasticities measure the
percent change in demand for freight in
response to a percent change in freight
prices, controlling for other variables
that may influence freight demand such
as GDP, the extent that goods are traded
internationally, and road supply and
capacity. This type of elasticity is only
applicable to the HDV subcategory of
freight trucks (i.e., combination tractors
and vocational vehicles that transport
freight). One desirable attribute of such
measures for purposes of this analysis is
that they show the response of freight
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trucking activity to changes to trucking
rates, including changes that result from
fuel cost savings as well as increases in
HDV technology costs.664
Freight price elasticities, however, are
imperfect proxies for the rebound effect
in freight trucks for a number of
reasons.665 For example, in order to
apply these elasticities we must assume
that our proposed rule’s impact on fuel
and vehicle costs is fully reflected in
freight rates. This may not be the case
if truck operators adjust their profit
margins or other operational practices
(e.g., loading practices, truck driver’s
wages) instead of freight rates. It is not
well understood how trucking firms
respond to different types of cost
changes (e.g., changes to fuel costs
versus labor costs).
Freight price elasticity estimates in
the literature typically measure freight
activity in tons or ton-miles, rather than
VMT. As discussed in the previous
section, average truck capacity and
payload in the HDV sector varies
dynamically—possibly in response to
changes in fuel price and fuel
efficiency—and data on these measures
are limited. This makes it difficult to
confidently infer a direct relationship
between ton-miles and VMT by
assuming a constant average payload.
Inferring a direct relationship between
tons and VMT is even less
straightforward. Additionally, there are
significant limitations on national
freight rate and freight truck ton-mile
data in the U.S., making it difficult to
confidently measure the impact of a
change in freight rates on ton-miles.666
Finally, freight price elasticity
estimates in the literature vary
significantly based on commodity type,
length of haul, region, availability of
alternative modes (discussed further in
Section IX.E.b.iii below), and functional
form of the model (i.e., log-linear, linear,
translog) making it difficult to
confidently apply any single estimate
reported in the literature to nationwide
freight activity. For example, elasticity
estimates for longer trips tend to be
larger in magnitude than those for
shorter trips, while demand to ship bulk
664 Note however that a percent change in freight
activity in response to a percent change in freight
rates should theoretically be larger than a percent
change in freight activity in response to a percent
change in fuel efficiency because fuel efficiency
only impacts a portion of freight operating costs
(e.g., fuel and vehicle costs, but not likely driver
wages or highway tolls).
665 Winebrake, J.J., Green, E.H., Comer, B.,
Corbett, J.J., Froman, S., 2012. Estimating the direct
rebound effect for on-road freight transportation.
Energy Policy 48, 252–259.
666 See, for example, Appendix E in EERA (2014),
‘‘Research to Inform Analysis of the Heavy-Duty
Vehicle Rebound Effect’’, Draft Final Report of
Phase 1 under EPA contract EP–C–13–025.
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commodities tends to be less elastic
than for non-bulk commodities.
Although these factors explain some
of the differences among reported
estimates, much of the observed
variation cannot be explained
quantitatively. For example, one study
that controlled for mode, commodity
class, demand elasticity measure (i.e.,
tons or ton-miles), model estimation
form, country, and temporal nature of
data only accounted for about half of the
observed variation.667
(c) Mode Shift Case Study
Although the total demand for freight
transport is generally determined by
economic activity, there is often the
choice of shipping freight on modes
other than HDVs. This is because the
United States has extensive rail,
waterway, pipeline, and air transport
networks in addition to an extensive
highway network; these networks often
closely parallel each other and are often
viable choices for freight transport for
many long-distance shipping routes
within the continental U.S. If rates for
one mode decline, demand for that
mode is likely to increase, and some of
this new demand could represent shifts
from other modes.668 The ‘‘cross-price
elasticity of demand,’’ which measures
the percentage change in demand for
shipping by another mode (e.g., rail)
given a percentage change in the price
of HDV freight transport services,
provides a measure of the importance of
such mode shifting. Aggregate estimates
of cross-price elasticities vary widely,669
and there is no general consensus on the
most appropriate value to use for
analytical purposes.
When considering intermodal shift,
one of the most relevant kinds of
shipments are those that are competitive
between rail and HDV modes. These
trips generally include long-haul
shipments greater than 500 miles, which
weigh between 50,000 and 80,000 lbs
(the legal road limit in many states).
Special kinds of cargo like coal and
short-haul deliveries are of less interest
because they are generally not
economically transferable between HDV
and rail modes, so they would not be
667 Li, Z., D.A. Hensher, and J.M. Rose, Identifying
sources of systematic variation in direct price
elasticities from revealed preference studies of
inter-city freight demand. Transport Policy, 2011.
668 Rail lines in parts of the U.S. are thought to
be currently oversubscribed. If that is the case, and
new freight demand is already being satisfied by
trucks, then this would limit the potential for
intermodal freight shifts between trucks and rail as
the result of this proposed rule.
669 Winebrake, J.J., Green, E.H., Comer, B.,
Corbett, J.J., Froman, S., 2012. Estimating the direct
rebound effect for on-road freight transportation.
Energy Policy 48, 252–259.
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expected to shift modes except under an
extreme price change. However, to the
best of our knowledge, the total amount
of freight that could potentially be
subject to mode shifting has not been
studied extensively.
In order to explore the potential for
HDV fuel efficiency standards to
produce economic conditions that favor
a mode shift from rail to HDVs, EPA
commissioned GIFT Solutions, LLC to
perform case studies on the HD GHG
Phase 1 rule using a number of data
sources, including the Commodity Flow
Survey, interviews with trucking firms,
and the Geospatial Intermodal Freight
Transportation (GIFT) model developed
by Winebrake and Corbett, which
includes information on infrastructure
and other route characteristics in the
U.S.670 671
A central assumption in the case
studies was that economic conditions
would favor a shift from rail to HDVs if
either the price per ton-mile to ship a
commodity by HDV, or the price to ship
a given quantity of a commodity by
HDV, became lower relative to rail
transport options post-regulation. The
results of the case studies indicate that
the HD Phase 1 rule would not seem to
create obvious economic conditions that
lead to a mode shift from rail to truck,
but there are a number of limitations
and caveats to this analysis, which are
discussed in the final report to EPA by
GIFT.672 673 For example, even if
trucking did not become less expensive
than rail post-regulation, a relative
decrease in the truck versus rail rates
might be enough to produce a shift,
given that other factors could influence
shippers’ decisions on modal choice.
The study did not, however, consider
these other factors such as time-ofdelivery and modal capacity. As another
example, the analysis assumes all fuel
cost savings and incremental vehicle
670 Winebrake, James and James J. Corbett (2010).
‘‘Improving the Energy Efficiency and
Environmental Performance of Goods Movement,’’
in Sperling, Daniel and James S. Cannon (2010)
Climate and Transportation Solutions: Findings
from the 2009 Asilomar Conference on
Transportation and Energy Policy. See https://
www.its.ucdavis.edu/events/2009book/
Chapter13.pdf.
671 Winebrake, J.J.; Corbett, J.J.; Falzarano, A.;
Hawker, J.S.; Korfmacher, K.; Ketha, S.; Zilora, S.,
Assessing Energy, Environmental, and Economic
Tradeoffs in Intermodal Freight Transportation,
Journal of the Air & Waste Management
Association, 58(8), 2008 (Docket ID: EPA–HQ–
OAR–2010–0162–0008).
672 See GIFT Solutions, LLC, ‘‘Potential for Mode
Shift due to Heavy Duty Vehicle Fuel Efficiency
Improvements’’. February, 2012.
673 Winebrake, James, J. Corbett, J. Silberman, E.
Erin, & B. Comer, 2012. Potential for Mode Shift
due to Heavy Duty Vehicle Fuel Efficiency
Improvements: A Case Study Approach. GIFT
Solutions, LLC.
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costs from the HD Phase 1 rule would
be passed on to shippers via changes in
freight rates, even though the analysis
found some evidence that this might not
occur (in two cases, the charges for
shipping a truckload over a given route
and distance were the same despite
differences in payloads that should have
been reflected in their fuel costs). Given
these limitations, more work is needed
in this area to explore the potential for
mode shift in response to HD fuel
efficiency standards.
(d) Case Study Using Freight Price
Elasticities
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Cambridge Systematics, Inc. (CSI)
employed a case study approach using
freight price elasticity estimates in the
literature to show several examples of
the magnitude of the HDV rebound
effect.674 In their unpublished paper
commissioned by the National Research
Council of the National Academies in
support of its 2010 HDV report, CSI
estimated the effect on HDV VMT from
a net decrease in operating costs
associated with fuel efficiency
improvements, using two different
technology cost and fuel savings
scenarios for Class 8 combination
tractors. Scenario 1 increased average
fuel efficiency of the tractor from 5.59
miles per gallon to 6.8 miles per gallon,
with an additional cost of $22,930 for
purchasing the improved tractor.
Scenario 2 increased the average fuel
efficiency to 9.1 miles per gallon, at an
incremental cost of $71,630 per tractor.
Both of these scenarios were based on
the technologies and targets from a
report authored by the Northeast States
Center for a Clean Air Future
(NESCCAF) and International Council
on Clean Transportation (ICCT).675
The CSI estimates were based on a
range of direct (or ‘‘own-price’’) freight
elasticities (¥0.5 to ¥1.5) 676 and crossprice freight elasticities (0.35 to 0.59) 677
674 Cambridge Systematics, Inc., Assessment of
Fuel Economy Technologies for Medium and Heavy
Duty Vehicles: Commissioned Paper on Indirect
Costs and Alternative Approaches, 2009.
675 Northeast States Center for a Clean Air Future,
Southeast Research Institute, TIAX, LLC., and
International Council on Clean Transportation,
Reducing Heavy-Duty Long Haul Truck Fuel
Consumption and CO2 Emissions, September 2009.
See https://www.nescaum.org/documents/heavyduty-truck-ghg_report_final-200910.pdf.
676 Graham and Glaister, ‘‘Road Traffic Demand
Elasticity Estimates: A Review,’’ Transport Reviews
Volume 24, 3, pp. 261–274, 2004.
677 Based upon a study for the National
Cooperative Highway Research Program by
Cambridge Systematics, Inc., Characteristics and
Changes in Freight Transportation Demand: A
Guidebook for Planners and Policy Analysts Phase
II Report, National Cooperative Highway Research
Program Project 8–30, June 1995.
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obtained from the literature.678 In their
calculations, CSI assumed 142,706
million miles of tractor VMT and 1,852
billion ton-miles were affected. The
tractor VMT was based on the Bureau of
Transportation Statistics’ (BTS) estimate
of highway miles for combination
tractors in 2006, and the rail ton-miles
were based on the BTS estimate of total
railroad miles during 2006. This
assumption is likely to overstate the
rebound effect, since not all freight
shipments occur on routes where
tractors and rail service shipments
compete directly. Nevertheless, this
assumption appears to be reasonable in
the absence of more detailed
information on the percentage of total
miles and ton-miles that are subject to
potential mode shifting.
For CSI’s calculations, all costs except
fuel costs and vehicle costs were taken
from a 2008 ATRI study.679 It is not
clear from the report how the new
vehicle costs were incorporated into
CSI’s calculations of per-mile tractor
operating costs. For example, neither
the ATRI report nor the CSI report
discusses assumptions about
depreciation, useful lifetimes of tractors,
and the opportunity cost of capital.
Based on these two scenarios, CSI
estimated the change in tractor VMT in
response to a net decrease in operating
costs (i.e., accounting for fuel cost and
changes in tractor purchase costs)
associated with fuel efficiency
improvement of 11–31 percent for
Scenario 1 and 5–16 percent for
Scenario 2, without accounting for any
fuel savings from reduced rail service.
When the fuel savings from reduced rail
usage were included in the calculations,
they estimated the change in tractor
VMT in response to a net decrease in
operating costs associated with fuel
efficiency improvement would be 9–30
percent for Scenario 1, and 3–15 percent
for Scenario 2.
Note that these estimates reflect
changes to tractor VMT with respect to
total operating costs, so they should
theoretically be larger than a percent
change in tractor VMT with respect to
a percent change in fuel efficiency
because fuel efficiency only impacts a
portion of truck operating costs (e.g.,
678 The own (i.e., self) price elasticity provides a
measure for describing how the volume of truck
shipping (demand) changes with its price while the
cross-price elasticity provides a measure for
describing how the volume of rail shipping changes
with truck price. In general, an elasticity describes
the percent change in one variable (e.g. demand for
trucking) in response to a percent-change in another
(e.g. price of truck operations).
679 American Transportation Research Institute,
‘‘An Analysis of the Operational Costs of Trucking’’,
October 2008.
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fuel and vehicle costs, but not likely
driver wages or highway tolls).
CSI included caveats associated with
these calculations. For example, their
report states that freight price elasticity
estimates derived from the literature are
‘‘heavily reliant on factors including the
type of demand measures analyzed
(vehicle-miles of travel, ton-miles, or
tons), geography, trip lengths, markets
served, and commodities transported.’’
These factors can increase variability in
the results. Also, estimates in CSI’s
study have the limitation of using
freight price elasticities to estimate the
HDV rebound effect discussed
previously in Section IV.D.2.b.
(e) Simulation Model Study Using
Freight Price Elasticities
Guerrero (2014) constructs a freight
simulation model of the California
trucking sector to measure the impact of
fuel saving investments and fleet
management on GHG emissions.680
Rather than estimating these impacts
using econometric analysis of raw data,
the study uses values from the existing
literature. Guerrero determines that
‘‘. . . improving the performance of
trucking also increases the number of
trips demanded because the market
price also decreases. This ‘rebound’
effect offsets around 40–50 percent of
these vehicle efficiency emission
reductions, with 9–14 percent of the
effect coming from increased pavement
deterioration and 31–36 percent coming
from increased fuel combustion.’’ Note
that to the extent that trip lengths also
vary in response to improvements in
HDV fuel efficiency, changes in the
number of HDV trips may not exactly
reflect changes in the total number of
miles the vehicles are operated.
However, these findings are based on
freight price elasticities, which—as we
discuss in Section IV.D.2.b and in the
context of the CSI study above—have
significant limitations. The study also
simulates only one state’s freight
network (California), which may not be
a good representation of national
activity.
(3) How the Agencies Estimated the
HDV Rebound Effect for This Proposal
(a) Values Used in the Phase 1 Analysis
At the time the agencies conducted
their analysis of the Phase 1 fuel
efficiency and GHG emissions
standards, the only evidence on the
HDV rebound effect were the previously
680 Guerrero, Sebastian. Modeling fuel saving
investments and fleet management in the trucking
industry: The impact of shipment performance on
GHG emissions. Transportation Research Part E,
May 2014.
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described studies from CSI and the
Volpe Center.681 The agencies
determined that this evidence did not
lend itself to a specific quantitative
value for use in the analysis. Rather,
based on a qualitative assessment of this
evidence informed by the agencies’ best
professional judgement, the agencies
chose rebound effects of 15 percent for
vocational vehicles and 5 percent for
combination tractors, both of which
were toward the lower end of the range
of values from these studies. The
agencies found no evidence on the
rebound effect for HD pickup trucks and
vans, but concluded it would be
inappropriate to use the values selected
for vocational vehicles or combination
tractors for those vehicles. Because the
usage patterns of HD pickup trucks and
vans can more closely resemble those of
large light-duty vehicles, the agencies
used our judgement to select the 10
percent rebound effect we had
employed in our most recent light-duty
rulemaking to analyze the Phase 1
standards for 2b/3 vehicles.
(b) How the Agencies Analyzed VMT
Rebound in This Proposal
After considering the new evidence
that has become available since the HD
Phase 1 final rule, the agencies elected
to continue using the rebound effect
estimates we used previously in the HD
Phase 1 rule in our analysis of Phase 2
proposed standards. In arriving at this
decision, the agencies considered the
shortcomings and limitations of the
newly-available studies described
previously, particularly the limited
applicability of the two published
studies using data from European
nations to the U.S. context. After
weighing these attributes of the more
recent studies, the agencies concluded
that we had insufficient evidence to
justify revising the rebound effect values
that were used in the Phase 1 analysis.
In our assessment, we do not
differentiate between short-run and
long-run rebound effects, although these
effects may differ. The vocational and
combination truck estimates are based
on the Volpe Center analysis presented
in the HD Phase 1 rule and the case
study from CSI. As with the HD Phase
1 rule, we did not find any literature
specifically examining the HD pickup
and truck sector. Since these vehicles
are used for very different purposes than
combination tractors and vocational
vehicles, and they are more similar in
use to large light-duty vehicles, we have
chosen the light-duty rebound effect of
10 percent used in the final rule
681 The
Gately study was also available, however,
the agencies were not aware of the work at the time.
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establishing fuel economy and GHG
standards for MYs 2017–2025 light-duty
vehicles in our analysis of HD pickup
trucks and vans.
While for this proposal, the agencies
have selected to use these rebound
effect values of 5 percent for
combination tractors, 10 percent for
heavy duty pickup trucks and vans and
15 percent for vocational vehicles, we
acknowledge the literature shows a
wide range of rebound effect estimates.
Therefore, we will review and consider
revising these estimates in the final rule,
taking into consideration all available
data and analysis, including
submissions from public commenters
and new research on the rebound effect.
It should be noted that the rebound
estimates we have selected for our
analysis represent the VMT impact from
our proposed standards with respect to
changes in the fuel cost per mile driven.
As described previously, the HDV
rebound effect should ideally be a
measure of the change in fuel consumed
with respect to the change in overall
operating costs due to a change in HDV
fuel efficiency. Such a measure would
incorporate all impacts from our
proposal, including those from
incremental increases in vehicle prices
that reflect costs for improving their fuel
efficiency. Therefore, VMT rebound
estimates with respect to fuel costs per
mile must be ‘‘scaled’’ to apply to total
operating costs, by dividing them by the
fraction of total operating costs
accounted for by fuel.
The agencies made simplifying
assumptions in the VMT rebound
analysis for this proposal, similar to the
approach taken during the development
of the HD GHG Phase 1 final rule.
However, for the HD Phase 2 final
rulemaking, we plan to use a more
comprehensive approach. Due to timing
constraints during the development of
this proposal, the agencies did not have
the technology package costs for each of
the alternatives prior to the need to
conduct the inventory analysis, except
for the pickup truck and van category in
analysis Method A. Therefore, the same
‘‘overall’’ VMT rebound values were
used for Alternatives 2 through 5 (as
discussed in Chapter 8.3.3 of the Draft
RIA and analyzed in Chapter 6 of the
Draft RIA), despite the fact that each
alternative results in a different change
in incremental technology and fuel
costs. For the final rulemaking, we plan
to determine VMT rebound separately
for each HDV category and for each
alternative. Tables 64 through 66 in
Chapter 7 of the Draft RIA present VMT
rebound for each HDV sector that we
estimated for the preferred alternative.
These VMT impacts are reflected in the
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estimates of total fuel savings and
reductions in emissions of GHG and
other air pollutants presented in Section
VI and VII of this preamble for all
categories.
Section 9.3.3 in the draft RIA provides
more details on our assessment of HDV
VMT rebound. We invite comment on
our approach, the rebound estimates,
and the related assumptions we made.
In particular, we invite comment on the
most appropriate methodology for
factoring new vehicle purchase or
leasing costs into the per-mile operating
costs. For the purposes of this proposal,
we have not taken into account any
potential fuel savings or GHG emission
reductions from the rail sector due to
mode shift because estimates of this
effect seem too speculative at this time.
We invite comment on this assumption,
as well as suggestions on alternative
modeling frameworks that could be
used to assess mode shifting
implications of our proposed
regulations. Similarly, we have not
taken into account any fuel savings or
GHG emissions reductions from the
potential shift in VMT from older HDVs
to newer, more efficient HDVs because
we have found no evidence of this
potential effect from fuel efficiency
standards. We invite comment on
suggested modeling frameworks or data
that could be used to assess the
potential for activity to shift from older
to newer, more efficient HDVs in
response to our proposed standards.
Note that while we focus on the VMT
rebound effect in our analysis of this
proposed rule, there are at least two
other types of rebound effects discussed
in the economics literature. In addition
to VMT rebound effects, there are
‘‘indirect’’ rebound effects, which refers
to the purchase of other goods or
services (that consume energy) with the
costs savings from energy efficiency
improvements; and ‘‘economy-wide’’
rebound effects, which refers to the
increased demand for energy throughout
the economy in response to the reduced
market price of energy that happens as
a result of energy efficiency
improvements.
Research on indirect and economywide rebound effects is nascent, and we
have not identified any that attempts to
quantify indirect or economy-wide
rebound effects for HDVs. In particular,
the agencies are not aware of any data
to indicate that the magnitude of
indirect or economy-wide rebound
effects, if any, would be significant for
this proposed rule.682 Therefore, we rely
682 One entity sought reconsideration of the Phase
1 rule on the grounds that indirect rebound effects
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the same analysis of vehicle miles
traveled to estimate the rebound effect
in this proposal that we did for the HD
Phase 1 rule, where we attempted to
quantify only rebound effects from our
rule that impact HDV VMT. We
welcome comments and any new work
in this area that helps to assess and
quantify different rebound effects that
could result from improvements in HDV
efficiency, including different types of
more intensive truck usage that affect
fuel consumption but not VMT such as
loaded weight, truck routing, and
scheduling.
In order to test the effect of alternative
assumptions about the rebound effect,
NHTSA examined the sensitivity of its
estimates of benefits and costs of the
Phase 2 Preferred Alternative for HD
pickups and vans to alternative
assumptions about the rebound effect.
While the main analysis for pickups and
vans assumes a 10 percent rebound
effect, the sensitivity analysis estimates
the benefits and costs of the proposed
standards under the assumptions of 5,
15, and 20 percent rebound effects.
Alternative values of the rebound
effect change the estimates of benefits
and costs from the proposed standards
in three ways. First, higher values of the
rebound effect increase the amount of
additional VMT that results from
improved fuel efficiency; this increases
costs associated with additional
congestion, accidents, and noise, thus
increasing total costs associated with
the proposed standards. Conversely,
smaller values of the rebound effect
reduce costs from additional congestion,
accidents, and noise, so they reduce
total costs of the proposed standards.
Larger increases in VMT associated with
higher values of the rebound effect
reduce the value of fuel savings and
related benefits (such as reductions in
GHG emissions) by progressively larger
amounts, while smaller values of the
rebound effect cause smaller reductions
in these benefits. At the same time,
however, a higher rebound effect
generates larger benefits from increased
vehicle use, while a smaller rebound
effect reduces these benefits. Thus the
impact of alternative values of the
rebound effect on total benefits from the
proposed standards depends on the
exact magnitudes of these latter two
effects. On balance, these three effects
can cause net benefits to increase or
decrease for alternative values of the
rebound effect.
TABLE IX–12—SENSITIVITY OF PREFERRED ALTERNATIVE IMPACTS UNDER DIFFERENT ASSUMPTIONS ABOUT REBOUND
EFFECT FOR PICKUPS AND VANS, USING 3% DISCOUNT RATE
Rebound effect
HD pickups and vans
10%
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Fuel Reductions (Billion Gallons) ....................................................................
GHG Reductions (MMT CO2 eq) .....................................................................
Total Costs ($ billion) .......................................................................................
Total Benefits ($ billion) ...................................................................................
Net Benefits ($ billion) .....................................................................................
5%
7.8
94.1
5.5
23.5
18.0
Table IX–12 summarizes the impact of
these alternative assumptions on fuel
and GHG emissions savings, total costs,
total benefits, and net benefits. As it
indicates, using a 5 percent value for the
rebound effect reduces benefits and
costs of the proposed standards by
identical amounts, leaving net benefits
unaffected. As the table also shows,
rebound effects of 15 percent and 20
percent increase costs and reduce
benefits compared to their values in the
main analysis, thus reducing net
benefits of the proposed standards.
Nevertheless, the preferred alternative
has significant net benefits under each
alternative assumption about the
magnitude of the rebound effect for HD
pickups and vans. Thus, these
alternative values of the rebound effect
would not have affected the agencies’
selection of the preferred alternative, as
that selection is based on NHTSA’s
assessment of the maximum feasible
fuel efficiency standards and EPA’s
selection of appropriate GHG standards
to address energy security and the
environment.
had not been considered by the agencies and could
negate all of the benefits of the standards. This
assertion rested on an unsupported affidavit lacking
any peer review or other indicia of objectivity. This
affidavit cited only one published study. The study
cited did not deal with vehicle efficiency, has
methodological limitations (many of them
acknowledged), and otherwise was not pertinent.
EPA and NHTSA thus declined to reconsider the
Phase 1 rule based on these speculative assertions.
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Sensitivity cases using alternative rebound assumptions
Main analysis
F. Impact on Class Shifting, Fleet
Turnover, and Sales
The agencies considered two
additional potential indirect effects
which may lead to unintended
consequences of the program to improve
the fuel efficiency and reduce GHG
emissions from HD trucks. The next
sections cover the agencies’ qualitative
discussions on potential class shifting
and fleet turnover effects.
(1) Class Shifting
Heavy-duty vehicles are typically
configured and purchased to perform a
function. For example, a concrete mixer
truck is purchased to transport concrete,
a combination tractor is purchased to
move freight with the use of a trailer,
and a Class 3 pickup truck could be
purchased by a landscape company to
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15%
8.2
95.7
5.0
23.0
18.0
20%
7.5
87.2
6.5
22.9
16.4
7.1
83.0
7.2
22.8
15.5
pull a trailer carrying lawnmowers. The
purchaser makes decisions based on
many attributes of the vehicle, including
the gross vehicle weight rating of the
vehicle, which in part determines the
amount of freight or equipment that can
be carried. If the proposed Phase 2
standards impact either the performance
of the vehicle or the marginal cost of the
vehicle relative to the other vehicle
classes, then consumers may choose to
purchase a different vehicle, resulting in
the unintended consequence of
increased fuel consumption and GHG
emissions in-use.
The agencies, along with the NAS
panel, found that there is little or no
literature which evaluates class shifting
between trucks.683 NHTSA and EPA
qualitatively evaluated the proposed
rules in light of potential class shifting.
The agencies looked at four potential
cases of shifting:—From light-duty
pickup trucks to heavy-duty pickup
trucks; from sleeper cabs to day cabs;
See generally 77 FR 51703–51704, August 27, 2012
and 77 FR 51502–51503, August 24, 2012.
683 See 2010 NAS Report, page 152.
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Federal Register / Vol. 80, No. 133 / Monday, July 13, 2015 / Proposed Rules
from combination tractors to vocational
vehicles; and within vocational
vehicles.
Light-duty pickup trucks, those with
a GVWR of less than 8,500 lbs, are
currently regulated under the existing
GHG/CAFE Phase 1 program and will
meet GHG/CAFE Phase 2 emission
standards beginning in 2017. The
increased stringency of the light-duty
2017–2025 MY vehicle rule has led
some to speculate that vehicle
consumers may choose to purchase
heavy-duty pickup trucks that are
currently regulated under the HD Phase
1 program if the cost of the light-duty
regulation is high relative to the cost to
buy the larger heavy-duty pickup trucks.
Since fuel consumption and GHG
emissions rise significantly with vehicle
mass, a shift from light-duty trucks to
heavy-duty trucks would likely lead to
higher fuel consumption and GHG
emissions, an untended consequence of
the regulations. Given the significant
price premium of a heavy-duty truck
(often five to ten thousand dollars more
than a light-duty pickup), we believe
that such a class shift would be unlikely
even absent this program. These
proposed rules would continue to
diminish any incentive for such a class
shift because they would narrow the
GHG and fuel efficiency performance
gap between light-duty and heavy-duty
pickup trucks. The proposed regulations
for the HD pickup trucks, and similarly
for vans, are based on similar
technologies and therefore reflect a
similar expected increase in cost when
compared to the light-duty GHG
regulation. Hence, the combination of
the two regulations provides little
incentive for a shift from light-duty
trucks to HD trucks. To the extent that
our proposed regulation of heavy-duty
pickups and vans could conceivably
encourage a class shift towards lighter
pickups, this unintended consequence
would in fact be expected to lead to
lower fuel consumption and GHG
emissions as the smaller light-duty
pickups have significantly better fuel
economy ratings than heavy-duty
pickup trucks.
The projected cost increases for this
proposed action differ between Class 8
day cabs and Class 8 sleeper cabs,
reflecting our expectation that
compliance with the proposed
standards would lead truck consumers
to specify sleeper cabs equipped with
APUs while day cab consumers would
not. Since Class 8 day cab and sleeper
cab trucks perform essentially the same
function when hauling a trailer, this
raises the possibility that the higher cost
for an APU equipped sleeper cab could
lead to a shift from sleeper cab to day
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cab trucks. We do not believe that such
an intended consequence would occur
for the following reasons. The addition
of a sleeper berth to a tractor cab is not
a consumer-selectable attribute in quite
the same way as other vehicle features.
The sleeper cab provides a utility that
long-distance trucking fleets need to
conduct their operations—an on-board
sleeping berth that lets a driver comply
with federally-mandated rest periods, as
required by the Department of
Transportation Federal Motor Carrier
Safety Administration’s hours-of-service
regulations. The cost of sleeper trucks is
already higher than the cost of day cabs,
yet the fleets that need this utility
purchase them.684 A day cab simply
cannot provide this utility with a single
driver. The need for this utility would
not be changed even if the additional
costs to reduce greenhouse gas
emissions from sleeper cabs exceed
those for reducing greenhouse gas
emissions from day cabs.685
A trucking fleet could instead decide
to put its drivers in hotels in lieu of
using sleeper berths, and switch to day
cabs. However, this is unlikely to occur
in any great number, since the added
cost for the hotel stays would far
overwhelm differences in the marginal
cost between day and sleeper cabs. Even
if some fleets do opt to buy hotel rooms
and switch to day cabs, they would be
highly unlikely to purchase a day cab
that was aerodynamically worse than
the sleeper cab they replaced, since the
need for features optimized for longdistance hauling would not have
changed. So in practice, there would
likely be little difference to the
environment for any switching that
might occur. Further, while our
projected costs assume the purchase of
an APU for compliance, in fact our
proposed regulatory structure would
allow compliance using a near zero cost
software utility that eliminates tractor
idling after five minutes. Using this
compliance approach, the cost
difference between a Class 8 sleeper cab
and day cab due to our proposed
regulations is small. We are proposing
this alternative compliance approach
reflecting that some sleeper cabs are
used in team driving situations where
one driver sleeps while the other drives.
In that situation, an APU is unnecessary
684 A baseline tractor price of a new day cab is
$89,500 versus $113,000 for a new sleeper cab
based on information gathered by ICF in the
‘‘Investigation of Costs for Strategies to Reduce
Greenhouse Gas Emissions for Heavy-Duty On-Road
Vehicles’’, July 2010. Page 3. Docket Identification
Number EPA–HQ–OAR–2014—0827.
685 The average marginal cost difference between
sleeper cabs and day cabs in the proposal is roughly
$2,500.
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since the tractor is continually being
driven when occupied. When it is
parked, it would automatically
eliminate any additional idling through
the shutdown software. If trucking
businesses choose this option, then
costs based on purchase of APUs may
overestimate the costs of this program to
this sector.
Class shifting from combination
tractors to vocational vehicles may
occur if a customer deems the
additional marginal cost of tractors due
to the regulation to be greater than the
utility provided by the tractor. The
agencies initially considered this issue
when deciding whether to include Class
7 tractors with the Class 8 tractors or
regulate them as vocational vehicles.
The agencies’ evaluation of the
combined vehicle weight rating of the
Class 7 shows that if these vehicles were
treated significantly differently from the
Class 8 tractors, then they could be
easily substituted for Class 8 tractors.
Therefore, the agencies are proposing to
continue to include both classes in the
tractor category. The agencies believe
that a shift from tractors to vocational
vehicles would be limited because of
the ability of tractors to pick up and
drop off trailers at locations which
cannot be done by vocational vehicles.
The agencies do not envision that the
proposed regulatory program would
cause class shifting within the
vocational vehicle class. The marginal
cost difference due to the regulation of
vocational vehicles is minimal. The cost
of LRR tires on a per tire basis is the
same for all vocational vehicles so the
only difference in marginal cost of the
vehicles is due to the number of axles.
The agencies believe that the utility
gained from the additional load carrying
capability of the additional axle would
outweigh the additional cost for heavier
vehicles.686
In conclusion, NHTSA and EPA
believe that the proposed regulatory
structure for HD trucks would not
significantly change the current
competitive and market factors that
determine purchaser preferences among
truck types. Furthermore, even if a small
amount of shifting would occur, any
resulting GHG impacts would likely to
be negligible because any vehicle class
that sees an uptick in sales is also being
regulated for fuel efficiency. Therefore,
the agencies did not include an impact
of class shifting on the vehicle
populations used to assess the benefits
of the proposed program.
686 The proposed rule projects the difference in
costs between the HHD and MHD vocational
vehicle technologies is approximately $30.
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(2) Fleet Turnover and Sales Effects
A regulation that affects the cost to
purchase and/or operate trucks could
affect whether a consumer decides to
purchase a new truck and the timing of
that purchase. The term pre-buy refers
to the idea that truck purchases may
occur earlier than otherwise planned to
avoid the additional costs associated
with a new regulatory requirement.
Slower fleet turnover, or low-buys, may
occur when owners opt to keep their
existing truck rather than purchase a
new truck due to the incremental cost
of the regulation.
The 2010 NAS HD Report discussed
the topics associated with HD truck fleet
turnover. NAS noted that there is some
empirical evidence of pre-buy behavior
in response to the 2004 and 2007 heavyduty engine emission standards, with
larger impacts occurring in response to
higher costs.687 However, those
regulations increased upfront costs to
firms without any offsetting future cost
savings from reduced fuel purchases. In
summary, NAS stated that:
. . . during periods of stable or growing
demand in the freight sector, pre-buy
behavior may have significant impact on
purchase patterns, especially for larger fleets
with better access to capital and financing.
Under these same conditions, smaller
operators may simply elect to keep their
current equipment on the road longer, all the
more likely given continued improvements
in diesel engine durability over time. On the
other hand, to the extent that fuel economy
improvements can offset incremental
purchase costs, these impacts will be
lessened. Nevertheless, when it comes to
efficiency investments, most heavy-duty fleet
operators require relatively quick payback
periods, on the order of two to three years.688
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The proposed regulations are
projected to return fuel savings to the
truck owners that offset the cost of the
regulation within a few years. The
effects of the regulation on purchasing
behavior and sales will depend on the
nature of the market failures and the
extent to which firms consider the
projected future fuel savings in their
purchasing decisions.
If trucking firms account for the rapid
payback, they are unlikely to
strategically accelerate or delay their
purchase plans at additional cost in
687 Committee to Assess Fuel Economy
Technologies for Medium- and Heavy-Duty
Vehicles; National Research Council;
Transportation Research Board (2010).
‘‘Technologies and Approaches to Reducing the
Fuel Consumption of Medium- and Heavy-Duty
Vehicles,’’ (hereafter, ‘‘NAS Report’’). Washington,
DC, the National Academies Press. Available
electronically from the National Academies Press
Web site at https://www.nap.edu/
catalog.php?record_id=12845. pp. 150–151.
688 See NAS Report, Note 687, page 151.
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capital to avoid a regulation that will
lower their overall operating costs. As
discussed in Section IX. A. this scenario
may occur if this proposed program
reduces uncertainty about fuel-saving
technologies. More reliable information
about ways to reduce fuel consumption
allows truck purchasers to evaluate
better the benefits and costs of
additional fuel savings, primarily in the
original vehicle market, but possibly in
the resale market as well. In addition,
the proposed standards are expected to
lead manufacturers to install more fuelsaving technologies and promote their
purchase; the increased availability and
promotion may encourage sales.
Other market failures may leave open
the possibility of some pre-buy or
delayed purchasing behavior. Firms
may not consider the full value of the
future fuel savings for several reasons.
For instance, truck purchasers may not
want to invest in fuel efficiency because
of uncertainty about fuel prices.
Another explanation is that the resale
market may not fully recognize the
value of fuel savings, due to lack of trust
of new technologies or changes in the
uses of the vehicles. Lack of
coordination (also called split
incentives—see Section IX. A.) between
truck purchasers (who may emphasize
the up-front costs of the trucks) and
truck operators, who would like the fuel
savings, can also lead to pre-buy or
delayed purchasing behavior. If these
market failures prevent firms from fully
internalizing fuel savings when
deciding on vehicle purchases, then prebuy and delayed purchase could occur
and could result in a slight decrease in
the GHG benefits of the regulation.
Thus, whether pre-buy or delayed
purchase is likely to play a significant
role in the truck market depends on the
specific behaviors of purchasers in that
market. Without additional information
about which scenario is more likely to
be prevalent, the agencies are not
projecting a change in fleet turnover
characteristics due to this regulation.
Whether vehicle sales appear to be
affected by the HD Phase 1 standards
could provide some insight into the
impacts of the proposed standards. At
the time of this proposed rule, sales data
are not yet available for 2014 model
year, the first year of the Phase 1
standards. In addition, any trends in
sales are likely to be affected by
macroeconomic conditions, which have
been recovering since 2009–2010. As a
result, it is unlikely to be possible, even
when vehicle sales data are available, to
separate the effects of the existing
standards from other confounding
factors.
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G. Monetized GHG Impacts
(1) Monetized CO2 Impacts—The Social
Cost of Carbon (SC–CO2)
We estimate the global social benefits
of CO2 emission reductions expected
from the proposed heavy-duty GHG and
fuel efficiency standards using the
social cost of carbon (SC–CO2) estimates
presented in the 2013 Technical
Support Document: Technical Update of
the Social Cost of Carbon for Regulatory
Impact Analysis Under Executive Order
12866 (2013 SCC TSD).689 (The SC–CO2
estimates are presented in Table IX–11).
We refer to these estimates, which were
developed by the U.S. government, as
‘‘SC–CO2 estimates.’’ The SC–CO2 is a
metric that estimates the monetary value
of impacts associated with marginal
changes in CO2 emissions in a given
year. It includes a wide range of
anticipated climate impacts, such as net
changes in agricultural productivity and
human health, property damage from
increased flood risk, and changes in
energy system costs, such as reduced
costs for heating and increased costs for
air conditioning. It is used in regulatory
impact analyses to quantify the benefits
of reducing CO2 emissions, or the
disbenefit from increasing emissions.
The SC–CO2 estimates used in this
analysis were developed over many
years, using the best science available,
and with input from the public.
Specifically, an interagency working
group (IWG) that included EPA, DOT,
and other executive branch agencies and
offices used three integrated assessment
models (IAMs) to develop the SC–CO2
estimates and recommended four global
values for use in regulatory analyses.
The SC–CO2 estimates were first
released in February 2010 690 and
689 Docket ID EPA–HQ–OAR–2014–0827,
Technical Support Document: Technical Update of
the Social Cost of Carbon for Regulatory Impact
Analysis Under Executive Order 12866, Interagency
Working Group on Social Cost of Carbon, with
participation by Council of Economic Advisers,
Council on Environmental Quality, Department of
Agriculture, Department of Commerce, Department
of Energy, Department of Transportation,
Environmental Protection Agency, National
Economic Council, Office of Energy and Climate
Change, Office of Management and Budget, Office
of Science and Technology Policy, and Department
of Treasury (May 2013, Revised November 2013).
Available at: https://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/
default/files/omb/assets/inforeg/technical-updatesocial-cost-of-carbon-for-regulator-impactanalysis.pdf.
690 Docket ID EPA–HQ–OAR–2009–0472–114577,
Technical Support Document: Social Cost of
Carbon for Regulatory Impact Analysis Under
Executive Order 12866, Interagency Working Group
on Social Cost of Carbon, with participation by the
Council of Economic Advisers, Council on
Environmental Quality, Department of Agriculture,
Department of Commerce, Department of Energy,
Department of Transportation, Environmental
Protection Agency, National Economic Council,
E:\FR\FM\13JYP2.SGM
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updated in 2013 using new versions of
each IAM. These estimates were
published in the 2013 SCC TSD. The
2013 update did not revisit the 2010
modeling decisions (e.g., with regard to
the discount rate, reference case
socioeconomic and emission scenarios
or equilibrium climate sensitivity).
Rather, improvements in the way
damages are modeled are confined to
those that have been incorporated into
the latest versions of the models by the
developers themselves and used for
analyses in peer-reviewed publications.
The 2010 SCC Technical Support
Document (2010 SCC TSD) provides a
complete discussion of the methods
used to develop these estimates and the
2013 SCC TSD presents and discusses
the updated estimates.
The 2010 SCC TSD noted a number of
limitations to the SC–CO2 analysis,
including the incomplete way in which
the IAMs capture catastrophic and noncatastrophic impacts, their incomplete
treatment of adaptation and
technological change, uncertainty in the
extrapolation of damages to high
temperatures, and assumptions
regarding risk aversion. Current IAMs
do not assign value to all of the
important physical, ecological, and
economic impacts of climate change
recognized in the climate change
literature due to a lack of precise
information on the nature of damages
and because the science incorporated
into these models understandably lags
behind the most recent research.
Nonetheless, these estimates and the
discussion of their limitations represent
the best available information about the
social benefits of CO2 reductions to
inform benefit-cost analysis; see RIA of
this rule and the SCC TSDs for
additional details. The new versions of
the models used to estimate the values
presented below offer some
improvements in these areas, although
further work is warranted.
Accordingly, EPA and other agencies
continue to engage in research on
modeling and valuation of climate
impacts with the goal to improve these
estimates. The EPA and other federal
agencies have considered the extensive
public comments on ways to improve
SC–CO2 estimation received via the
notice and comment periods that were
part of numerous rulemakings. In
addition, OMB’s Office of Information
and Regulatory Affairs sought public
comment on the approach used to
develop the SC–CO2 estimates (78 FR
70586, November 26, 2013). The
comment period ended on February 26,
2014, and OMB is reviewing the
comments received. OMB also
responded in January 2014 to concerns
submitted in a Request for Correction on
the SCC TSDs.691
The four global SC–CO2 estimates,
updated in 2013, are as follows: $13,
$46, $68, and $140 per metric ton of
CO2 emissions in the year 2020
(2012$).692 The first three values are
based on the average SC–CO2 from the
three IAMs, at discount rates of 5, 3, and
2.5 percent, respectively. SC–CO2
estimates for several discount rates are
included because the literature shows
that the SC–CO2 is quite sensitive to
assumptions about the discount rate,
and because no consensus exists on the
40457
appropriate rate to use in an
intergenerational context (where costs
and benefits are incurred by different
generations). The fourth value is the
95th percentile of the SC–CO2 from all
three models at a 3 percent discount
rate. It is included to represent higherthan-expected impacts from temperature
change further out in the tails of the SC–
CO2 distribution (representing less
likely, but potentially catastrophic,
outcomes). The SC–CO2 increases over
time because future emissions are
expected to produce larger incremental
damages as economies grow and
physical and economic systems become
more stressed in response to greater
climate change. The SC–CO2 values are
presented in Table IX–11.
Applying the global SC–CO2
estimates, shown in Table IX–13, to the
estimated reductions in domestic CO2
emissions for the proposed program,
yields estimates of the dollar value of
the climate related benefits for each
analysis year. These estimates are then
discounted back to the analysis year
using the same discount rate used to
estimate the SC–CO2. For internal
consistency, the annual benefits are
discounted back to net present value
terms using the same discount rate as
each SC–CO2 estimate (i.e. 5 percent, 3
percent, and 2.5 percent) rather than the
discount rates of 3 percent and 7
percent used to derive the net present
value of other streams of costs and
benefits of the proposed rule.693 The
SC–CO2 benefit estimates for each
calendar year are shown in Table IX–14.
The SC–CO2 benefit estimates for each
model year are shown in Table IX–15.
TABLE IX–13—SOCIAL COST OF CO2, 2012–2050 a
(in 2012$ per metric ton)
5%
Average
Calendar year
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2012
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
.........................................................................................
.........................................................................................
.........................................................................................
.........................................................................................
.........................................................................................
.........................................................................................
.........................................................................................
.........................................................................................
.........................................................................................
3%
Average
$12
12
13
15
17
20
23
26
28
2.5%
Average
$37
40
46
51
56
60
66
71
77
3%,
95th Percentile
$58
61
69
74
81
86
93
99
100
$100
120
140
150
170
190
210
220
240
Note:
a The SC-CO values are dollar-year and emissions-year specific and have been rounded to two significant digits. Unrounded numbers from the
2
2013 SCC TSD were used to calculate the CO2 benefits.
Office of Energy and Climate Change, Office of
Management and Budget, Office of Science and
Technology Policy, and Department of Treasury
(February 2010). Also available at: https://
www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/omb/
inforeg/for-agencies/Social-Cost-of-Carbon-forRIA.pdf.
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691 OMB’s 1/24/14 response to the petition is
available at https://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/
default/files/omb/inforeg/ssc-rfc-under-iqaresponse.pdf.
692 The 2013 SCC TSD presents the SC–CO
2
estimates in $2007. These estimates were adjusted
to 2012$ using the GDP Implicit Price Deflator.
Bureau of Economic Analysis, Table 1.1.9 Implicit
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Price Deflators for Gross Domestic Product; last
revised on March 27, 2014.
693 See more discussion on the appropriate
discounting of climate benefits using SC–CO2 in the
2010 SCC TSD. Other benefits and costs of
proposed regulations unrelated to CO2 emissions
are discounted at the 3% and 7% rates specified in
OMB guidance for regulatory analysis.
E:\FR\FM\13JYP2.SGM
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Federal Register / Vol. 80, No. 133 / Monday, July 13, 2015 / Proposed Rules
TABLE IX–14—UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM ANNUAL CO2 BENEFITS FOR THE GIVEN SC-CO2 VALUE a USING METHOD
B AND RELATIVE TO THE LESS DYNAMIC BASELINE
[millions of 2012$] b
5%
Average
Calendar year
2018 .........................................................................................
2019 .........................................................................................
2020 .........................................................................................
2021 .........................................................................................
2022 .........................................................................................
2023 .........................................................................................
2024 .........................................................................................
2025 .........................................................................................
2026 .........................................................................................
2027 .........................................................................................
2028 .........................................................................................
2029 .........................................................................................
2030 .........................................................................................
2035 .........................................................................................
2040 .........................................................................................
2050 .........................................................................................
NPV ..........................................................................................
$13
26
40
92
170
250
400
540
720
890
1,100
1,300
1,500
2,500
3,300
5,000
22,000
3%
Average
2.5%
Average
$43
91
140
330
590
860
1,300
1,800
2,300
2,900
3,500
4,200
4,800
7,400
9,700
14,000
100,000
$65
130
210
500
880
1,300
1,900
2,600
3,400
4,200
5,100
5,900
6,900
11,000
14,000
19,000
160,000
3%,
95th Percentile
$130
270
420
1,000
1,800
2,600
4,000
5,500
7,000
8,900
11,000
13,000
15,000
23,000
30,000
42,000
320,000
Notes:
a The SC-CO values are dollar-year and emissions-year specific.
2
b For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
TABLE IX–15—UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM DISCOUNTED MODEL YEAR LIFETIME CO2 BENEFITS FOR THE GIVEN SCCO2 VALUE USING METHOD B AND RELATIVE TO THE LESS DYNAMIC BASELINE
[millions of 2012$] a b
5%
Average
Model year
2018 .........................................................................................
2019 .........................................................................................
2020 .........................................................................................
2021 .........................................................................................
2022 .........................................................................................
2023 .........................................................................................
2024 .........................................................................................
2025 .........................................................................................
2026 .........................................................................................
2027 .........................................................................................
2028 .........................................................................................
2029 .........................................................................................
Sum ..........................................................................................
3%
Average
$93
90
87
520
540
550
870
900
920
1,100
1,100
1,100
7,800
2.5%
Average
$380
370
360
2,200
2,300
2,300
3,700
3,900
4,000
4,800
4,800
4,900
34,000
$580
570
560
3,400
3,500
3,600
5,800
6,100
6,300
7,600
7,600
7,700
53,000
3%,
95th Percentile
$1,100
1,100
1,100
6,600
6,900
7,200
11,000
12,000
12,000
15,000
15,000
15,000
100,000
Notes:
a The SC-CO values are dollar-year and emissions-year specific.
2
b For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
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(2) Sensitivity Analysis—Monetized
Non-CO2 GHG Impacts
One limitation of the primary benefits
analysis is that it does not include the
valuation of non-CO2 GHG impacts (e.g.,
CH4, N2O, HFC-134a). Specifically, the
2010 and 2013 SCC TSDs do not include
estimates of the social costs of non-CO2
GHG emissions using an approach
analogous to the one used to estimate
the SC-CO2. However, EPA recognizes
that non-CO2 GHG impacts associated
with this rulemaking (e.g., net
reductions in CH4,N2O, and HFC-134a)
would provide additional benefits to
society. To understand the potential
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implication of omitting these benefits,
EPA has conducted sensitivity analysis
using two approaches: (1) An
approximation approach based on the
global warming potentials (GWP) of
non-CO2 GHGs, which has been used in
previous rulemakings, and (2) a set of
recently published SC-CH4 and SC-N2O
estimates that are consistent with the
modeling assumptions underlying the
SC-CO2 estimates (Marten et al. 2014).
This section presents estimates of the
non-CO2 benefits of the proposed
rulemaking using both approaches.
Other unquantified non-CO2 benefits are
discussed in this section as well.
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Additional details are provided in the
RIA of these rules.
Currently, EPA is undertaking a peer
review of the application of the Marten
et al. (2014) non-CO2 social cost
estimates in regulatory analysis.
Pending a favorable peer review, EPA
plans to include monetized benefits of
CH4 and N2O emission reductions in the
main benefit-cost analysis of the RIA for
the final rule, using the directly
modeled estimates of SC-CH4 and SCN2O from Marten et al. EPA seeks
comments on the use of directly
modeled estimates for the social cost of
non-CO2 GHGs.
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(a) Non-CO2 GHG Benefits Based on the
GWP Approximation Approach
In the absence of directly modeled
estimates, one potential method for
approximating the value of marginal
non-CO2 GHG emission reductions is to
convert non-CO2 emissions reductions
to CO2-equivalents that may then be
valued using the SC-CO2. Conversion to
CO2-equivalents is typically based on
the global warming potentials (GWPs)
for the non-CO2 gases. This approach,
henceforth referred to as the ‘‘GWP
approach,’’ has been used in sensitivity
analyses to estimate the non-CO2
benefits in previous EPA rulemakings
(see U.S. EPA 2012, 2013).694 EPA has
not presented these estimates in a main
benefit-cost analysis due to the
limitations associated with using the
GWP approach to value changes in nonCO2 GHG emissions, and considered the
GWP approach as an interim method of
analysis until social cost estimates for
non-CO2 GHGs, consistent with the SCCO2 estimates, were developed.
The GWP is a simple, transparent, and
well-established metric for assessing the
relative impacts of non-CO2 emissions
compared to CO2 on a purely physical
basis. However, as discussed both in the
2010 SCC TSD and previous
rulemakings (e.g., U.S. EPA 2012, 2013),
the GWP approximation approach to
measuring non-CO2 GHG benefits has
several well-documented limitations.
These metrics are not ideally suited for
use in benefit-cost analyses to
approximate the social cost of non-CO2
GHGs because the approach would
assume all subsequent linkages leading
to damages are linear in radiative
forcing, which would be inconsistent
with the most recent scientific
literature. Detailed discussion of
limitations of the GWP approach can be
found in the RIA.
Similar to the approach used in the
RIA of the Final Rulemaking for 2017–
2025 Light-Duty Vehicle Greenhouse
Gas Emission Standards and Corporate
Average Fuel Economy Standards (U.S.
EPA, 2013), EPA applies the GWP
40459
approach to estimate the benefits
associated with reductions of CH4, N2O
and HFCs in each calendar year. Under
the GWP Approach, EPA converted CH4,
N2O and HFC-134a to CO2 equivalents
using the AR4 100-year GWP for each
gas: CH4 (25), N2O (298), and HFC-134a
(1,430).695 These CO2-equivalent
emission reductions are multiplied by
the SC-CO2 estimate corresponding to
each year of emission reductions. As
with the calculation of annual benefits
of CO2 emission reductions, the annual
benefits of non-CO2 emission reductions
based on the GWP approach are
discounted back to net present value
terms using the same discount rate as
each SC-CO2 estimate. The estimated
non-CO2 GHG benefits using the GWP
approach are presented in Table IX–16
through Table IX–18. The total net
present value of the GHG benefits for
this proposed rulemaking would
increase by about $760 million to $11
billion (2012$), depending on discount
rate, or roughly 3 percent if these nonCO2 estimates were included.
TABLE IX–16—ANNUAL UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM CH4 BENEFITS FOR THE GIVEN SC-CO2 VALUE USING METHOD B
AND RELATIVE TO THE LESS DYNAMIC BASELINE, USING THE GWP APPROACH a b
[$Millions of 2012$] b
CH4
Calendar year
5% Average
2018 .........................................................................................
2019 .........................................................................................
2020 .........................................................................................
2021 .........................................................................................
2022 .........................................................................................
2023 .........................................................................................
2024 .........................................................................................
2025 .........................................................................................
2026 .........................................................................................
2027 .........................................................................................
2028 .........................................................................................
2029 .........................................................................................
2030 .........................................................................................
2035 .........................................................................................
2040 .........................................................................................
2050 .........................................................................................
NPV ..........................................................................................
3% Average
$0.3
0.6
1.0
3.1
6.0
8.8
14
19
25
30
36
43
49
82
110
160
730
2.5% Average
$1.1
2.2
3.5
11
20
30
46
62
79
99
120
140
160
240
320
440
3,400
$1.6
3.3
5.2
17
30
45
68
91
120
140
170
200
230
350
440
600
5,400
3%, 95th
Percentile
$3.2
6.6
10
33
62
93
140
190
240
300
360
420
480
760
990
1,400
11,000
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Notes:
a The SC-CO values are dollar-year and emissions-year specific
2
b For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
694 U.S. EPA. (2012). ‘‘Regulatory impact analysis
supporting the 2012 U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency final new source performance standards
and amendments to the national emission standards
for hazardous air pollutants for the oil and natural
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gas industry.’’ Retrieved from https://www.epa.gov/
ttn/ecas/regdata/RIAs/oil_natural_gas_final_
neshap_nsps_ria.pdf.
695 Source: Table 2.14 (Errata). Lifetimes,
radiative efficiencies and direct (except for CH4)
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GWPs relative to CO2. IPCC Fourth Assessment
Report ‘‘Climate Change 2007: Working Group I:
The Physical Science Basis.’’
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TABLE IX–17—ANNUAL UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM N2O BENEFITS FOR THE GIVEN SC-CO2 VALUE USING METHOD B
AND RELATIVE TO THE LESS DYNAMIC BASELINE, USING THE GWP APPROACH a b
[$Millions of 2012$] b
N2O
Calendar year
5% Average
2018 .........................................................................................
2019 .........................................................................................
2020 .........................................................................................
2021 .........................................................................................
2022 .........................................................................................
2023 .........................................................................................
2024 .........................................................................................
2025 .........................................................................................
2026 .........................................................................................
2027 .........................................................................................
2028 .........................................................................................
2029 .........................................................................................
2030 .........................................................................................
2035 .........................................................................................
2040 .........................................................................................
2050 .........................................................................................
NPV ..........................................................................................
3% Average
$0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.5
1.6
2.8
3.8
5.6
25
2.5% Average
$0.0
0.1
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.9
1.4
2.0
2.6
3.2
3.9
4.6
5.3
8.3
11
15
120
3%, 95th
Percentile
$0.1
0.2
0.2
0.5
1.0
1.4
2.1
2.9
3.7
4.7
5.7
6.6
7.7
12
15
21
180
$0.2
0.3
0.5
1.1
1.9
2.8
4.4
6.0
7.8
10
12
14
16
26
34
47
360
Notes:
a The SC-CO values are dollar-year and emissions-year specific.
2
b For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
TABLE IX–18—ANNUAL UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM HFC–134A BENEFITS FOR THE GIVEN SC-CO2 VALUE USING
METHOD B AND RELATIVE TO THE LESS DYNAMIC BASELINE, USING THE GWP APPROACH a b
[$Millions of 2012$] b
HFC–134a
Calendar year
5% Average
2018 .........................................................................................
2019 .........................................................................................
2020 .........................................................................................
2021 .........................................................................................
2022 .........................................................................................
2023 .........................................................................................
2024 .........................................................................................
2025 .........................................................................................
2026 .........................................................................................
2027 .........................................................................................
2028 .........................................................................................
2029 .........................................................................................
2030 .........................................................................................
2035 .........................................................................................
2040 .........................................................................................
2050 .........................................................................................
NPV ..........................................................................................
3% Average
$0.0
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.5
0.8
1.1
1.4
1.8
2.2
2.5
3.0
3.4
5.2
6.1
8.4
44
2.5% Average
$0.0
0.0
0.0
0.8
1.7
2.7
3.7
4.7
5.9
7.1
8.3
10
11
15
18
23
200
$0.0
0.0
0.0
1.3
2.6
4.0
5.4
6.9
8.6
10
12
14
16
22
25
31
320
3%, 95th
Percentile
$0.0
0.0
0.0
2.6
5.3
8.1
11
14
18
22
25
29
34
48
56
71
630
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Notes:
a The SC-CO values are dollar-year and emissions-year specific.
2
b For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
(b) Non-CO2 GHG Benefits Based on
Directly Modeled Estimates
Several researchers have directly
estimated the social cost of non-CO2
emissions using integrated assessment
models (IAMs), though the number of
such estimates is small compared to the
large number of SC-CO2 estimates
available in the literature. As discussed
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in previous RIAs (e.g., EPA 2012), there
is considerable variation among these
published estimates in the models and
input assumptions they employ. These
studies differ in the emission
perturbation year, employ a wide range
of constant and variable discount rate
specifications, and consider a range of
baseline socioeconomic and emissions
scenarios that have been developed over
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the last 20 years. However, none of the
other published estimates of the social
cost of non-CO2 GHG are consistent
with the SC-CO2 estimates, and most are
likely underestimates due to changes in
the underlying science since their
publication.
Recently, a paper by Marten et al.
(2014) provided the first set of
published SC-CH4 and SC-N2O
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Federal Register / Vol. 80, No. 133 / Monday, July 13, 2015 / Proposed Rules
estimates that are consistent with the
modeling assumptions underlying the
SC-CO2.696 Specifically, the estimation
approach of Marten et al. (2014) used
the same set of three IAMs, five
socioeconomic-emissions scenarios,
equilibrium climate sensitivity
distribution, three constant discount
rates, and aggregation approach used to
develop the SC-CO2 estimates.
The resulting SC-CH4 and SC-N2O
estimates are presented in Table IX–19.
More detailed discussion of their
methodology, results and a comparison
to other published estimates can be
found in the RIA and in Marten et al.
(2014). The tables do not include HFC–
134a because EPA is unaware of
analogous estimates.
TABLE IX–19—SOCIAL COST OF CH4 AND N2O, 2012–2050 a [IN 2012$ PER METRIC TON]
[Source: Marten et al., 2014]
SC-CH4
Year
2012
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
.................................
.................................
.................................
.................................
.................................
.................................
.................................
.................................
.................................
5%
Average
3%
Average
$440
500
590
710
840
990
1,200
1,300
1,500
SC-N2O
2.5%
Average
$1,000
1,200
1,300
1,500
1,700
2,000
2,300
2,500
2,700
$1,400
1,500
1,700
19,000
2,300
2,500
2,800
3,100
3,300
3%
95th
percentile
5%
Average
$2,800
3,100
3,500
4,100
4,600
5,400
6,000
6,800
7,400
$4,000
4,400
5,200
6,000
7,000
8,100
9,300
11,000
12,000
3%
Average
2.5%
Average
$14,000
15,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
23,000
25,000
27,000
29,000
$20,000
22,000
24,000
27,000
29,000
32,000
35,000
38,000
41,000
3%
95th
percentile
$37,000
39,000
44,000
50,000
55,000
61,000
67,000
73,000
80,000
Note:
a The values are emissions-year specific and have been rounded to two significant digits. Unrounded numbers were used to calculate the GHG
benefits.
The application of directly modeled
estimates from Marten et al. (2014) to
benefit-cost analysis of a regulatory
action is analogous to the use of the SCCO2 estimates. Specifically, the SC-CH4
and SC-N2O estimates in Table IX–19
are used to monetize the benefits of
changes in CH4 and N2O emissions
expected as a result of the proposed
rulemaking. Forecast changes in CH4
and N2O emissions in a given year
resulting from the regulatory action are
multiplied by the SC-CH4 and SC-N2O
estimate for that year, respectively. To
obtain a present value estimate, the
monetized stream of future non-CO2
benefits are discounted back to the
analysis year using the same discount
rate used to estimate the social cost of
the non-CO2 GHG emission changes.
The CH4 and N2O benefits based on
Marten et al. (2014) are presented for
each calendar year in Table IX–20.
Including these benefits would increase
the total net present value of the GHG
benefits for this proposed rulemaking by
about $1.5 billion to $12 billion (2012$),
or roughly 4 to 7 percent, depending on
discount rate.
TABLE IX–20—ANNUAL UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM NON-CO2 GHG BENEFITS FOR THE GIVEN SC-NON-CO2 VALUE
USING METHOD B AND RELATIVE TO THE LESS DYNAMIC BASELINE, USING THE DIRECTLY MODELED APPROACH a b
[Millions of 2012$] c
N 2O
CH4
ebenthall on DSK3VPTVN1PROD with MISCELLANEOUS
Calendar year
2018 .................................
2019 .................................
2020 .................................
2021 .................................
2022 .................................
2023 .................................
2024 .................................
2025 .................................
2026 .................................
2027 .................................
2028 .................................
2029 .................................
2030 .................................
2035 .................................
2040 .................................
2050 .................................
NPV ..................................
5%
Average
3%
Average
$0.6
1.1
1.8
5.8
11
17
26
35
46
57
69
82
95
160
230
350
1,500
2.5%
Average
$1.3
2.6
3.9
13
24
35
56
74
99
120
140
170
190
330
430
620
4,600
$1.6
3.4
5.2
17
31
49
72
95
130
150
190
220
260
400
540
770
6,400
3%
95th
percentile
5%
Average
$3.3
6.8
10
35
65
97
150
200
260
320
390
460
520
870
1,200
1,700
12,000
3%
Average
$0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.3
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.3
1.6
1.9
2.2
3.7
5.2
7.9
34
$0.1
0.1
0.2
0.4
0.8
1.1
1.8
2.4
3.0
4.0
4.8
5.8
6.5
10
14
20
150
2.5%
Average
3%
95th
percentile
$0.1
0.2
0.3
0.6
1.1
1.7
2.5
3.5
4.5
5.8
6.9
8.2
9.3
15
19
27
230
Notes:
696 Marten, A.L., E.A. Kopits, C.W. Griffiths, S.C.
Newbold & A. Wolverton (2014). Incremental CH4
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and N2O mitigation benefits consistent with the
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U.S. Government’s SC-CO2 estimates, Climate
Policy, DOI: 10.1080/14693062.2014.912981.
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$0.2
0.3
0.5
1.2
2.1
3.1
4.7
6.5
8.4
11
13
15
18
28
37
53
400
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Federal Register / Vol. 80, No. 133 / Monday, July 13, 2015 / Proposed Rules
a The
SC-CH4 and SC-N2O values are dollar-year and emissions-year specific.
that net present discounted values of reduced GHG emissions is are calculated differently than other benefits. The same discount rate
used to discount the value of damages from future emissions (SC-CH4 and SC-N2O at 5, 3, and 2.5 percent) is used to calculate net present
value discounted values of SC-CH4 and SC-N2O for internal consistency. Refer to SCC TSD for more detail.
c For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
b Note
et al. 2012 698; Shindell et al. 2012 699),
an estimate similar in magnitude to the
climate benefits of CH4 reductions
estimated by the Marten et al. or GWP
methods. However, though EPA is
continuing to monitor this area of
research as it evolves, EPA is not
applying them for benefit estimates at
this time.
(c) Additional Non-CO2 GHGs CoBenefits
ebenthall on DSK3VPTVN1PROD with MISCELLANEOUS
As illustrated above, compared to the
use of directly modeled estimates the
GWP-based approximation approach
underestimates the climate benefits of
the CH4 emission reductions by 12
percent to 52 percent and the climate
benefits of N2O reductions by 10 percent
to 26 percent, depending on the
discount rate assumption.
H. Monetized Non-GHG Health Impacts
In determining the relative social
costs of the different gases, the Marten
et al. (2014) analysis accounts for
differences in lifetime and radiative
efficiency between the non-CO2 GHGs
and CO2. The analysis also accounts for
radiative forcing resulting from
methane’s effects on tropospheric ozone
and stratospheric water vapor, and for at
least some of the fertilization effects of
elevated carbon dioxide concentrations.
However, there exist several other
differences between these gases that
have not yet been captured in this
analysis, namely the non-radiative
effects of methane-driven elevated
tropospheric ozone levels on human
health, agriculture, and ecosystems, and
the effects of carbon dioxide on ocean
acidification. Inclusion of these
additional non-radiative effects would
potentially change both the absolute and
relative value of the various gases.
Of these effects, the human health
effect of elevated tropospheric ozone
levels resulting from methane emissions
is the closest to being monetized in a
way that would be comparable to the
SCC. Premature ozone-related
cardiopulmonary deaths resulting from
global increases in tropospheric ozone
concentrations produced by the
methane oxidation process have been
the focus of a number of studies over the
past decade (e.g., West et al. 2006 697 ).
Recent studies have produced an
estimate of a monetized benefit of
methane emissions reductions, with
results on the order of $1,000 per metric
ton of CH4 emissions reduced (Anenberg
697 West JJ, Fiore AM, Horowitz LW, Mauzerall
DL (2006) Global health benefits of mitigating ozone
pollution with methane emission controls. Proc
Natl Acad Sci USA 103(11):3988–3993.
doi:10.1073/pnas.0600201103.
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This section analyzes the economic
benefits from reductions in health and
environmental impacts resulting from
non-GHG emission reductions that can
be expected to occur as a result of the
proposed Phase 2 standards. CO2
emissions are predominantly the
byproduct of fossil fuel combustion
processes that also produce criteria and
hazardous air pollutant emissions. The
vehicles that are subject to the proposed
standards are also significant sources of
mobile source air pollution such as
direct PM, NOX, VOCs and air toxics.
The proposed standards would affect
exhaust emissions of these pollutants
from vehicles and would also affect
emissions from upstream sources that
occur during the refining and
distribution of fuel. Changes in ambient
concentrations of ozone, PM2.5, and air
toxics that would result from the
proposed standards are expected to
affect human health by reducing
premature deaths and other serious
human health effects, as well as other
important improvements in public
health and welfare.
It is important to quantify the health
and environmental impacts associated
with the proposed standards because a
failure to adequately consider these
ancillary impacts could lead to an
incorrect assessment of their costs and
benefits. Moreover, the health and other
impacts of exposure to criteria air
pollutants and airborne toxics tend to
occur in the near term, while most
effects from reduced climate change are
698 Anenberg SC, Schwartz J, Shindell D, Amann
M, Faluvegi G, Klimont Z, . . ., Vignati E (2012)
Global air quality and health co-benefits of
mitigating near-term climate change through
methane and black carbon emission controls.
Environ Health Perspect 120(6):831. doi:10.1289/
ehp.1104301.
699 Shindell D, Kuylenstierna JCI, Vignati E, van
Dingenen R, Amann M, Klimont Z, . . . , Fowler
D (2012) Simultaneously Mitigating Near-Term
Climate Change and Improving Human Health and
Food Security. Science 335 (6065):183–189.
doi:10.1126/science.1210026.
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likely to occur only over a time frame
of several decades or longer.
Although EPA typically quantifies
and monetizes the health and
environmental impacts related to both
PM and ozone in its regulatory impact
analyses (RIAs), it was unable to do so
in time for this proposal. Instead, EPA
has applied PM-related ‘‘benefits perton’’ values to its estimated emission
reductions as an interim approach to
estimating the PM-related benefits of the
proposal. 700 701 EPA also characterizes
the health and environmental impacts
that will be quantified and monetized
for the final rulemaking.
This section is split into two subsections: the first presents the benefitsper-ton values used to monetize the
benefits from reducing population
exposure to PM associated with the
proposed standards; the second explains
what PM- and ozone-related health and
environmental impacts EPA will
quantify and monetize in the analysis
for the final rule. EPA bases its analyses
on peer-reviewed studies of air quality
and health and welfare effects and peerreviewed studies of the monetary values
of public health and welfare
improvements, and is generally
consistent with benefits analyses
performed for the analysis of the final
Tier 3 Vehicle Rule,702 the final 2012
p.m. NAAQS Revision,703 and the final
700 Fann, N., Baker, K.R., and Fulcher, C.M.
(2012). Characterizing the PM2.5-related health
benefits of emission reductions for 17 industrial,
area and mobile emission sectors across the U.S.,
Environment International, 49, 241–151, published
online September 28, 2012.
701 See also: https://www.epa.gov/airquality/
benmap/sabpt.html. The current values available
on the Web page have been updated since the
publication of the Fann et al., 2012 paper. For more
information regarding the updated values, see:
https://www.epa.gov/airquality/benmap/models/
Source_Apportionment_BPT_TSD_1_31_13.pdf
(accessed September 9, 2014).
702 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. (2014).
Control of Air Pollution from Motor Vehicles: Tier
3 Motor Vehicle Emission and Fuel Standards Final
Rule: Regulatory Impact Analysis, Assessment and
Standards Division, Office of Transportation and
Air Quality, EPA–420–R–14–005, March 2014.
Available on the Internet: https://www.epa.gov/otaq/
documents/tier3/420r14005.pdf.
703 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. (2012).
Regulatory Impact Analysis for the Final Revisions
to the National Ambient Air Quality Standards for
Particulate Matter, Health and Environmental
Impacts Division, Office of Air Quality Planning
and Standards, EPA–452–R–12–005, December
2012. Available on the Internet: https://
www.epa.gov/ttnecas1/regdata/RIAs/finalria.pdf.
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Federal Register / Vol. 80, No. 133 / Monday, July 13, 2015 / Proposed Rules
2017–2025 Light Duty Vehicle GHG
Rule.704
Though EPA is characterizing the
changes in emissions associated with
toxic pollutants, we are not able to
quantify or monetize the human health
effects associated with air toxic
pollutants for either the proposal or the
final rule analyses (see Section
VIII.G.1.b.iii for more information).
Please refer to Section VIII for more
information about the air toxics
emissions impacts associated with the
proposed standards.
(1) Economic Value of Reductions in
Criteria Pollutants
As described in Section VIII, the
proposed standards would reduce
emissions of several criteria and toxic
pollutants and their precursors. In this
analysis, EPA estimates the economic
value of the human health benefits
associated with the resulting reductions
in PM2.5 exposure. Due to analytical
40463
the human health benefits would be
estimated based on changes in ambient
PM2.5 as determined by full-scale air
quality modeling. However, the length
of time needed to prepare the necessary
emissions inventories, in addition to the
processing time associated with the
modeling itself, has precluded us from
performing air quality modeling for this
proposal. We will conduct this
modeling for the final rule.
The dollar-per-ton estimates used in
this analysis are provided in Table IX–
21. As the table indicates, these values
differ among pollutants, and also
depend on their original source, because
emissions from different sources can
result in different degrees of population
exposure and resulting health impacts.
In the summary of costs and benefits,
Section IX.K of this preamble, EPA
presents the monetized value of PMrelated improvements associated with
the proposal.
limitations with the benefit per ton
method, this analysis does not estimate
benefits resulting from reductions in
population exposure to other criteria
pollutants such as ozone.705
Furthermore, the benefits per-ton
method, like all air quality impact
analyses, does not monetize all of the
potential health and welfare effects
associated with reduced concentrations
of PM2.5.
This analysis uses estimates of the
benefits from reducing the incidence of
the specific PM2.5-related health impacts
described below. These estimates,
which are expressed per ton of PM2.5related emissions eliminated by the
proposed rules, represent the monetized
value of human health benefits
(including reductions in both premature
mortality and premature morbidity)
from reducing each ton of directly
emitted PM2.5 or its precursors (SO2 and
NOX), from a specified source. Ideally,
TABLE IX–21—BENEFITS-PER-TON VALUES
[Thousands, 2012$] a
On-road
mobile sources
Year c
Direct PM2.5
SO2
Upstream
sources d
NOX
Direct PM2.5
SO2
NOX
$330–$750
350–790
390–870
420–950
$69–$160
75–170
83–190
91–200
$6.8–$16
7.4–17
8.1–18
8.7–20
$290–$670
320–720
350–790
380–850
$63–$140
67–150
75–170
81–180
$6.2–$14
6.6–15
7.3–17
7.9–18
Estimated Using a 3 Percent Discount Rate b
2016
2020
2025
2030
.........................................................
.........................................................
.........................................................
.........................................................
$380–$850
400–910
440–1,000
480–1,100
$20–$45
22–49
24–55
27–61
$7.7–$18
8.1–18
8.8–20
9.6–22
Estimated Using a 7 Percent Discount Rate b
2016
2020
2025
2030
.........................................................
.........................................................
.........................................................
.........................................................
$340–$770
370–820
400–910
430–980
$18–$41
20–44
22–49
24–55
$6.9–$16
7.4–17
8.0–18
8.6–20
Notes:
a The benefit-per-ton estimates presented in this table are based on a range of premature mortality estimates derived from the ACS study
(Krewski et al., 2009) and the Six-Cities study (Lepeule et al., 2012). See Chapter VIII of the RIA for a description of these studies.
b The benefit-per-ton estimates presented in this table assume either a 3 percent or 7 percent discount rate in the valuation of premature mortality to account for a twenty-year segmented premature mortality cessation lag.
c Benefit-per-ton values were estimated for the years 2016, 2020, 2025 and 2030. We hold values constant for intervening years (e.g., the
2016 values are assumed to apply to years 2017–2019; 2020 values for years 2021–2024; 2030 values for years 2031 and beyond).
d We assume for the purpose of this analysis that total ‘‘upstream emissions’’ are most appropriately monetized using the refinery sector benefit per-ton values. The majority of upstream emission reductions associated with the proposed rule are related to domestic onsite refinery emissions and domestic crude production. While total upstream emissions also include storage and transport sources, as well as sources upstream
from the refinery, we have chosen to simply apply the refinery values. Full-scale air quality modeling, and the associated benefits analysis, will
include upstream emissions from all sources in the FRM.
ebenthall on DSK3VPTVN1PROD with MISCELLANEOUS
The benefit-per-ton technique has
been used in previous analyses,
including EPA’s 2017–2025 Light-Duty
Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Rule,706 the
Reciprocating Internal Combustion
Engine rules,707 708 and the Residential
704 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S.
EPA). (2012). Regulatory Impact Analysis: Final
Rulemaking for 2017-2025 Light-Duty Vehicle
Greenhouse Gas Emission Standards and Corporate
Average Fuel Economy Standards, Assessment and
Standards Division, Office of Transportation and
Air Quality, EPA–420–R–12–016, August 2012.
Available on the Internet at: https://www.epa.gov/
otaq/climate/documents/420r12016.pdf.
705 The air quality modeling that underlies the
PM-related benefit per ton values also produced
estimates of ozone levels attributable to each sector.
However, the complex non-linear chemistry
governing ozone formation prevented EPA from
developing a complementary array of ozone benefit
per ton values. This limitation notwithstanding, we
anticipate that the ozone-related benefits associated
with reducing emissions of NOX and VOC could be
substantial.
706 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S.
EPA). (2012). Regulatory Impact Analysis: Final
Rulemaking for 2017-2025 Light-Duty Vehicle
Greenhouse Gas Emission Standards and Corporate
Average Fuel Economy Standards, Assessment and
Standards Division, Office of Transportation and
Air Quality, EPA–420–R–12–016, August 2012.
Available on the Internet at: https://www.epa.gov/
otaq/climate/documents/420r12016.pdf.
707 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S.
EPA). (2013). Regulatory Impact Analysis for the
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Federal Register / Vol. 80, No. 133 / Monday, July 13, 2015 / Proposed Rules
Wood Heaters NSPS.709 Table IX–22
shows the quantified PM2.5-related co-
benefits captured in those benefit perton estimates, as well as unquantified
effects the benefit per-ton estimates are
unable to capture.
TABLE IX–22—HUMAN HEALTH AND WELFARE EFFECTS OF PM2.5
Pollutant/
effect
Quantified and monetized in primary estimates
Unquantified effects
Changes in:
PM2.5 .............
Adult premature mortality ............................................................
Acute bronchitis ..........................................................................
Hospital admissions: Respiratory and cardiovascular ................
Emergency room visits for asthma .............................................
Nonfatal heart attacks (myocardial infarction) ............................
Lower and upper respiratory illness ...........................................
Minor restricted-activity days ......................................................
Work loss days.
Asthma exacerbations (asthmatic population).
Infant mortality.
Chronic and subchronic bronchitis cases.
Strokes and cerebrovascular disease.
Low birth weight.
Pulmonary function.
Chronic respiratory diseases other than chronic bronchitis.
Non-asthma respiratory emergency room visits.
Visibility.
Household soiling.
ebenthall on DSK3VPTVN1PROD with MISCELLANEOUS
A more detailed description of the
benefit-per-ton estimates is provided in
Chapter VIII of the Draft RIA that
accompanies this rulemaking. Readers
interested in reviewing the complete
methodology for creating the benefitper-ton estimates used in this analysis
can consult EPA’s ‘‘Technical Support
Document: Estimating the Benefit per
Ton of Reducing PM2.5 Precursors from
17 Sectors.’’ 710 Readers can also refer to
Fann et al. (2012) 711 for a detailed
description of the benefit-per-ton
methodology.
As Table IX–20 indicates, EPA
projects that the per-ton values for
reducing emissions of non-GHG
pollutants from both vehicle use and
upstream sources such as fuel refineries
will increase over time.712 These
projected increases reflect rising income
levels, which increase affected
individuals’ willingness to pay for
reduced exposure to health threats from
air pollution.713 They also reflect future
population growth and increased life
expectancy, which expands the size of
the population exposed to air pollution
in both urban and rural areas, especially
among older age groups with the highest
mortality risk.714
(2) Human Health and Environmental
Benefits for the Final Rule
Reconsideration of the Existing Stationary
Compression Ignition (CI) Engines NESHAP, Office
of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Research
Triangle Park, NC. January. EPA–452/R–13–001.
Available at .
708 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S.
EPA). (2013). Regulatory Impact Analysis for
Reconsideration of Existing Stationary Spark
Ignition (SI) RICE NESHAP, Office of Air Quality
Planning and Standards, Research Triangle Park,
NC. January. EPA–452/R–13–002. Available at
.
709 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S.
EPA). (2015). Regulatory Impact Analysis for
Residential Wood Heaters NSPS Revision. Office of
Air Quality Planning and Standards, Research
Triangle Park, NC. February. EPA–452/R–15–001.
Available at .
710 For more information regarding the updated
values, see: https://www.epa.gov/airquality/benmap/
models/Source_Apportionment_BPT_TSD_1_31_
13.pdf (accessed September 9, 2014).
711 Fann, N., Baker, K.R., and Fulcher, C.M.
(2012). Characterizing the PM2.5-related health
benefits of emission reductions for 17 industrial,
area and mobile emission sectors across the U.S.,
Environment International, 49, 241–151, published
online September 28, 2012.
712 As we discuss in the emissions chapter of the
DRIA (Chapter V), the rule would yield emission
reductions from upstream refining and fuel
distribution due to decreased petroleum
consumption.
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(a) Human Health and Environmental
Impacts
To model the ozone and PM air
quality benefits of the final rule, EPA
will use the Community Multiscale Air
Quality (CMAQ) model (see Section VIII
for a description of the CMAQ model).
The modeled ambient air quality data
will serve as an input to the
Environmental Benefits Mapping and
Analysis Program—Community Edition
(BenMAP CE).715 BenMAP CE is a
computer program developed by EPA
that integrates a number of the modeling
elements used in previous RIAs (e.g.,
interpolation functions, population
projections, health impact functions,
valuation functions, analysis and
pooling methods) to translate modeled
air concentration estimates into health
effects incidence estimates and
monetized benefits estimates.
Chapter VIII in the DRIA that
accompanies this proposal lists the copollutant health effect concentrationresponse functions EPA will use to
quantify the non-GHG incidence
impacts associated with the proposed
heavy-duty vehicle standards. These
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include PM- and ozone-related
premature mortality, nonfatal heart
attacks, hospital admissions (respiratory
and cardiovascular), emergency room
visits, acute bronchitis, minor restricted
activity days, and days of work and
school lost.
(b) Monetized Impacts
To calculate the total monetized
impacts associated with quantified
health impacts, EPA applies values
derived from a number of sources. For
premature mortality, EPA applies a
value of a statistical life (VSL) derived
from the mortality valuation literature.
For certain health impacts, such as a
number of respiratory-related ailments,
EPA applies willingness-to-pay
estimates derived from the valuation
literature. For the remaining health
impacts, EPA applies values derived
from current cost-of-illness and/or wage
estimates. Chapter VIII in the DRIA that
accompanies this proposal presents the
monetary values EPA will apply to
changes in the incidence of health and
welfare effects associated with
reductions in non-GHG pollutants that
will occur when these GHG control
strategies are finalized.
713 The issue is discussed in more detail in the
2012 p.m. NAAQS RIA, Section 5.6.8. See U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency. (2012).
Regulatory Impact Analysis for the Final Revisions
to the National Ambient Air Quality Standards for
Particulate Matter, Health and Environmental
Impacts Division, Office of Air Quality Planning
and Standards, EPA–452–R–12–005, December
2012. Available on the internet: https://
www.epa.gov/ttnecas1/regdata/RIAs/finalria.pdf.
714 For more information about EPA’s population
projections, please refer to the following: https://
www.epa.gov/air/benmap/models/
BenMAPManualAppendicesAugust2010.pdf (See
Appendix K).
715 Information on BenMAP, including
downloads of the software, can be found at https://
www.epa.gov/air/benmap/.
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(c) Other Unquantified Health and
Environmental Impacts
In addition to the co-pollutant health
and environmental impacts EPA will
quantify for the analysis of the final
standard, there are a number of other
health and human welfare endpoints
that EPA will not be able to quantify or
monetize because of current limitations
in the methods or available data. These
impacts are associated with emissions of
air toxics (including benzene, 1,3butadiene, formaldehyde, acetaldehyde,
acrolein, naphthalene and ethanol),
ambient ozone, and ambient PM2.5
exposures. Chapter VIII of the DRIA lists
these unquantified health and
environmental impacts.
While there will be impacts
associated with air toxic pollutant
emission changes that result from the
final standard, EPA will not attempt to
monetize those impacts. This is
primarily because currently available
tools and methods to assess air toxics
risk from mobile sources at the national
scale are not adequate for extrapolation
to incidence estimations or benefits
assessment. The best suite of tools and
methods currently available for
assessment at the national scale are
those used in the National-Scale Air
Toxics Assessment (NATA). EPA’s
Science Advisory Board specifically
commented in their review of the 1996
NATA that these tools were not yet
ready for use in a national-scale benefits
analysis, because they did not consider
the full distribution of exposure and
risk, or address sub-chronic health
effects.716 While EPA has since
improved the tools, there remain critical
limitations for estimating incidence and
assessing benefits of reducing mobile
source air toxics.717 EPA continues to
work to address these limitations;
however, EPA does not anticipate
having methods and tools available for
national-scale application in time for
the analysis of the final rules.718
716 Science Advisory Board. 2001. NATA—
Evaluating the National-Scale Air Toxics
Assessment for 1996—an SAB Advisory. https://
www.epa.gov/ttn/atw/sab/sabrev.html.
717 Examples include gaps in toxicological data,
uncertainties in extrapolating results from highdose animal experiments to estimate human effects
at lower does, limited ambient and personal
exposure monitoring data, and insufficient
economic research to support valuation of the
health impacts often associated with exposure to
individual air toxics. See Gwinn et al., 2011.
Meeting Report: Estimating the Benefits of Reducing
Hazardous Air Pollutants—Summary of 2009
Workshop and Future Considerations. Environ
Health Perspect. Jan 2011; 119(1): 125–130.
718 In April, 2009, EPA hosted a workshop on
estimating the benefits of reducing hazardous air
pollutants. This workshop built upon the work
accomplished in the June 2000 in an earlier (2000)
Science Advisory Board/EPA Workshop on the
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I. Energy Security Impacts
The Phase 2 standards are designed to
require improvements in the fuel
efficiency of medium- and heavy-duty
vehicles and, thereby, reduce fuel
consumption and GHG emissions. In
turn, the Phase 2 standards help to
reduce U.S. petroleum imports. A
reduction of U.S. petroleum imports
reduces both financial and strategic
risks caused by potential sudden
disruptions in the supply of imported
petroleum to the U.S., thus increasing
U.S. energy security. This section
summarizes the agency’s estimates of
U.S. oil import reductions and energy
security benefits of the proposed Phase
2 standards. Additional discussion of
this issue can be found in Chapter 8 of
the draft RIA.
(1) Implications of Reduced Petroleum
Use on U.S. Imports
U.S. energy security is broadly
defined as the continued availability of
energy sources at an acceptable price.
Most discussion of U.S. energy security
revolves around the topic of the
economic costs of U.S. dependence on
oil imports. However, it is not imports
alone, but both imports and
consumption of petroleum from all
sources and their role in economic
activity, that expose the U.S. to risk
from price shocks in the world oil price.
The relative significance of petroleum
consumption and import levels for the
macroeconomic disturbances that follow
from oil price shocks is not fully
understood. Recognizing that changing
petroleum consumption will change
U.S. imports, this assessment of oil costs
focuses on those incremental social
costs that follow from the resulting
changes in imports, employing the usual
oil import premium measure. The
agencies request comment on how to
incorporate the impact of changes in oil
consumption, rather than imports
exclusively, into our energy security
analysis.
While the U.S. has reduced its
consumption and increased its
production of oil in recent years, it still
relies on oil from potentially unstable
sources. In addition, oil exporters with
a large share of global production have
the ability to raise the price of oil by
exerting the monopoly power associated
Benefits of Reductions in Exposure to Hazardous
Air Pollutants, which generated thoughtful
discussion on approaches to estimating human
health benefits from reductions in air toxics
exposure, but no consensus was reached on
methods that could be implemented in the near
term for a broad selection of air toxics. Please visit
https://epa.gov/air/toxicair/2009workshop.html for
more information about the workshop and its
associated materials.
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with a cartel, the Organization of
Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC),
to restrict oil supply relative to demand.
These factors contribute to the
vulnerability of the U.S. economy to
episodic oil supply shocks and price
spikes. In 2012, U.S. net expenditures
for imports of crude oil and petroleum
products were $290 billion and
expenditures on both imported oil and
domestic petroleum and refined
products totaled $634 billion (see Figure
IX–1).719 Import costs have declined
since 2011 but total oil expenditures
(domestic and imported) remain near
historical highs, at roughly triple the
inflation-adjusted levels experienced by
the U.S. from 1986 to 2002.
In 2010, just over 40 percent of world
oil supply came from OPEC nations and
the AEO 2014 (Early Release) 720
projects that this share will rise
gradually to over 45 percent by 2040.
Approximately 31 percent of global
supply is from Middle East and North
African countries alone, a share that is
also expected to grow. Measured in
terms of the share of world oil resources
or the share of global oil export supply,
rather than oil production, the
concentration of global petroleum
resources in OPEC nations is even
larger. As another measure of
concentration, of the 137 countries/
principalities that export either crude or
refined products, the top 12 have
recently accounted for over 55 percent
of exports.721 Eight of these countries
are members of OPEC, and a ninth is
Russia.722 In a market where even a 1–
2 percent supply loss can raise prices
noticeably, and where a 10 percent
supply loss could lead to an
unprecedented price shock, this
regional concentration is of concern.723
719 See EIA Annual Energy Review, various
editions. For data 2011–2013, and projected data:
EIA Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) 2014 (Reference
Case). See Table 11, file ‘‘aeotab_11.xls.’’
720 The agencies used the AEO 2014 (Early
Release) since this version of AEO was available at
the time that fuel savings from the rule were being
estimated. The AEO 2014 (Early Release) and the
AEO 2014 have very similar energy market and
economic projections. For example, world oil prices
are the same between the two forecasts.
721 Based on data from the CIA, combining
various recent years, https://www.cia.gov/library/
publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/
2242rank.html.
722 The other three are Norway, Canada, and the
EU, an exporter of product.
723 For example, the 2005 Hurricanes Katrina/Rita
and the 2011 Libyan conflict both led to a 1.8
percent reduction in global crude supply. While the
price impact of the latter is not easily distinguished
given the rapidly rising post-recession prices, the
former event was associated with a 10–15 percent
world oil price increase. There are a range of
smaller events with smaller but noticeable impacts.
Somewhat larger events, such as the 2002/3
Venezuelan Strike and the War in Iraq,
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OPEC country, and the tenth being
Hurricanes Katrina and Rita.
differences in U.S. fuel consumption,
petroleum imports, and imports of
petroleum products, the agencies
estimate that approximately 90 percent
of the reduction in fuel consumption
resulting from adopting improved GHG
emission standards and fuel efficiency
standards is likely to be reflected in
reduced U.S. imports of crude oil and
net imported petroleum products.726
Thus, on balance, each gallon of fuel
saved as a consequence of the HD GHG
and fuel efficiency standards is
anticipated to reduce total U.S. imports
of petroleum by 0.90 gallons.727 Based
upon the fuel savings estimated by the
MOVES/CAFE models and the 90
percent oil import factor, the reduction
in U.S. oil imports from these proposed
rules are estimated for the years 2020,
2025, 2030, 2040, and 2050 (in millions
of barrels per day (MMBD)) in Table IX–
25 below. For comparison purposes,
Table IX–25 also shows U.S. imports of
crude oil in 2020, 2025, 2030 and 2040
as projected by DOE in the Annual
Energy Outlook 2014 (Early Release)
Reference Case. U.S. Gross Domestic
corresponded to about a 2.9 percent sustained loss
of supply, and was associated with a 28 percent
world oil price increase.
724 IEA 2011 ‘‘IEA Response System for Oil
Supply Emergencies.’’
725 For historical data: EIA Annual Energy
Review, various editions. For data 2011–2013, and
projected data: EIA Annual Energy Outlook (AEO)
2014 (Reference Case). See Table 11, file ‘‘aeotab_
11.xls’’.
726 We looked at changes in crude oil imports and
net petroleum products in the Reference Case in
comparison to two cases from the AEO 2014. The
two cases are the Low (i.e., Economic Growth)
Demand and Low VMT cases. See the spreadsheet
‘‘Impacts on Fuel Demands and ImportsJan9.xlsx’’
comparing the AEO 2014 Reference Case to the Low
Demand Case. See the spreadsheet ‘‘Impact of Fuel
Demand and Impacts January20VMT.xlsl’’ for a
comparison of AEO 2014 Reference Case and the
Low VMT Case. We also considered a paper entitled
‘‘Effect of a U.S. Demand Reduction on Imports and
Domestic Supply Levels’’ by Paul Leiby, 4/16/2013.
This paper suggests that ‘‘Given a particular
reduction in oil demand stemming from a policy or
significant technology change, the fraction of oil use
savings that shows up as reduced U.S. imports,
rather than reduced U.S. supply, is actually quite
close to 90 percent, and probably close to 95
percent’’.
727 The NHTSA analysis uses a slightly different
value that was estimated using unique runs of the
National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) that
forms the foundation of the Annual Energy Outlook.
NHTSA ran a version of NEMS from 2012 (which
would have been used in the 2013 AEO) and
computed the change in imports of petroleum
products with and without the Phase 1 MDHD
program to estimate the relationship between
changes in fuel consumption and oil imports. The
analysis found that reducing gasoline consumption
by 1 gallon reduces imports of refined gasoline by
0.06 gallons and domestic refining from imported
crude by 0.94 gallons. Similarly, one gallon of
diesel saved by the Phase 1 rule was estimated to
reduce imports of refined diesel by 0.26 gallons and
domestic refining of imported crude by 0.74
gallons. The agencies will update this analysis for
the Final Rule using the model associated with
AEO2014, modeling the Phase 2 Preferred
Alternative explicitly.
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ten major world oil disruptions,724 with
the ninth originating in Venezuela, an
The agencies used EPA’s MOVES
model to estimate the reductions in U.S.
fuel consumption due to this proposed
rule for vocational vehicles and tractors.
For HD pickups and vans, the agencies
used both DOT’s CAFE model and
EPA’s MOVES model to estimate the
fuel consumption impacts. (Detailed
explanations of the MOVES and CAFE
models can be found in Chapters 5 and
10 of the draft RIA. See IX.C of the
preamble for estimates of reduced fuel
consumption from the proposed rule).
Based on a detailed analysis of
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Historically, the countries of the Middle
East have been the source of eight of the
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Federal Register / Vol. 80, No. 133 / Monday, July 13, 2015 / Proposed Rules
Product (GDP) is projected to grow by
roughly 59 percent over the same time
frame (e.g., from 2020 to 2040) in the
same AEO projections.
TABLE IX–23—PROJECTED U.S. IMPORTS OF CRUDE OIL AND U.S. OIL IMPORT REDUCTIONS RESULTING FROM THE PROPOSED PHASE 2 HEAVY-DUTY VEHICLE RULE IN 2020, 2025, 2030, 2040 AND 2050 USING METHOD B AND RELATIVE TO THE LESS DYNAMIC BASELINE
[Millions of barrels per day (MMBD)] a
U.S. oil
imports
Year
2020
2025
2030
2040
2050
.........................................................................................................................................................................
.........................................................................................................................................................................
.........................................................................................................................................................................
.........................................................................................................................................................................
.........................................................................................................................................................................
4.93
5.04
5.35
5.92
*
Reductions
from proposed
HD rule
0.01
0.16
0.37
0.65
0.78
Notes:
* The AEO 2014 (Early Release) only projects energy market and economic trends through 2040.
a For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
ebenthall on DSK3VPTVN1PROD with MISCELLANEOUS
(2) Energy Security Implications
In order to understand the energy
security implications of reducing U.S.
oil imports, EPA has worked with Oak
Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL),
which has developed approaches for
evaluating the social costs and energy
security implications of oil use. The
energy security estimates provided
below are based upon a methodology
developed in a peer-reviewed study
entitled, ‘‘The Energy Security Benefits
of Reduced Oil Use, 2006–2015,’’
completed in March 2008. This ORNL
study is an updated version of the
approach used for estimating the energy
security benefits of U.S. oil import
reductions developed in a 1997 ORNL
Report.728 For EPA and NHTSA
rulemakings, the ORNL methodology is
updated periodically to account for
forecasts of future energy market and
economic trends reported in the U.S.
Energy Information Administration’s
Annual Energy Outlook.
When conducting this analysis, ORNL
considered the full cost of importing
petroleum into the U.S. The full
economic cost is defined to include two
components in addition to the purchase
price of petroleum itself. These are: (1)
The higher costs for oil imports
resulting from the effect of U.S. demand
on the world oil price (i.e., the
‘‘demand’’ or ‘‘monopsony’’ costs); and
(2) the risk of reductions in U.S.
economic output and disruption to the
U.S. economy caused by sudden
disruptions in the supply of imported
oil to the U.S. (i.e., macroeconomic
disruption/adjustment costs).
The literature on the energy security
for the last two decades has routinely
combined the monopsony and the
macroeconomic disruption components
when calculating the total value of the
energy security premium. However, in
the context of using a global value for
the Social Cost of Carbon (SCC) the
question arises: How should the energy
security premium be used when some
benefits from the rule, such as the
benefits of reducing greenhouse gas
emissions, are calculated from a global
perspective? Monopsony benefits
represent avoided payments by U.S.
consumers to oil producers that result
from a decrease in the world oil price
as the U.S. decreases its demand for oil.
Although there is clearly an overall
benefit to the U.S. when considered
from a domestic perspective, the
decrease in price due to decreased
demand in the U.S. also represents a
loss to oil producing countries, one of
which is the United States. Given the
redistributive nature of this monopsony
effect from a global perspective, and the
fact that an increasing fraction of it
represents a transfer between U.S.
consumers and producers, it is excluded
in the energy security benefits
calculations for these proposed rules.
In contrast, the other portion of the
energy security premium, the avoided
U.S. macroeconomic disruption and
adjustment cost that arises from
reductions in U.S. petroleum imports,
does not have offsetting impacts outside
of the U.S., and, thus, is included in the
energy security benefits estimated for
these proposed rules. To summarize, the
agencies have included only the
avoided macroeconomic disruption
portion of the energy security benefits to
estimate the monetary value of the total
energy security benefits of these
proposed rules.
For this rulemaking, ORNL updated
the energy security premiums by
incorporating the most recent oil price
forecast and energy market trends,
particularly regional oil supplies and
demands, from the AEO 2014 (Early
Release) into its model.729 ORNL
developed energy security premium
estimates for a number of different
years. Table IX–24 provides estimates
for energy security premiums for the
years 2020, 2025, 2030 and 2040,730 as
well as a breakdown of the components
of the energy security premiums for
each year. The components of the
energy security premiums and their
values are discussed below.
728 Leiby, Paul N., Donald W. Jones, T. Randall
Curlee, and Russell Lee, Oil Imports: An
Assessment of Benefits and Costs, ORNL–6851, Oak
Ridge National Laboratory, November, 1997.
729 Leiby, P., Factors Influencing Estimate of
Energy Security Premium for Heavy-Duty Phase 2
Proposed Rule, 11/1/2014, Oak Ridge National
Laboratory.
730 AEO 2014 (Early Release) forecasts energy
market trends and values only to 2040. The post2040 energy security premium values are assumed
to be equal to the 2040 estimate.
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Federal Register / Vol. 80, No. 133 / Monday, July 13, 2015 / Proposed Rules
TABLE IX–24—ENERGY SECURITY PREMIUMS IN 2020, 2025, 2030 AND 2040
[2012$/Barrel] *
Year
(range)
Monopsony
(range)
2020 ...........................................................................................................................
2025 ...........................................................................................................................
2030 ...........................................................................................................................
2040 ...........................................................................................................................
Avoided macroeconomic disruption/adjustment
costs
(range)
$4.91
(1.63–9.15)
$5.46
(1.81–10.47)
$6.04
(2.00–11.67)
$7.17
(2.32–14.03)
$6.35
(3.07–10.15)
$7.29
(3.57–11.67)
$8.39
(4.12–13.41)
$10.74
(5.36–17.22)
Total mid-point
(range)
$11.25
(6.67–16.53)
$12.75
(7.58–18.65)
$14.43
(8.54–21.13)
$17.91
–26.14)
Note:
* Top values in each cell are the midpoints, the values in parentheses are the 90 percent confidence intervals.
ebenthall on DSK3VPTVN1PROD with MISCELLANEOUS
(a) Effect of Oil Use on the Long-Run Oil
Price
The first component of the full
economic costs of importing petroleum
into the U.S. follows from the effect of
U.S. import demand on the world oil
price over the long-run. Because the
U.S. is a sufficiently large purchaser of
global oil supplies, its purchases can
affect the world oil price. This
monopsony power means that increases
in U.S. petroleum demand can cause the
world price of crude oil to rise, and
conversely, that reduced U.S. petroleum
demand can reduce the world price of
crude oil. Thus, one benefit of
decreasing U.S. oil purchases, due to
improvements in the fuel efficiency of
medium- and heavy-duty vehicles, is
the potential decrease in the crude oil
price paid for all crude oil purchased.
A variety of oil market and economic
factors have contributed to lowering the
estimated monopsony premium
compared to monopsony premiums
cited in recent EPA/NHTSA
rulemakings. Three principal factors
contribute to lowering the monopsony
premium: Lower world oil prices, lower
U.S. oil imports and less responsiveness
of world oil prices to changes in U.S. oil
demand. For example, between 2012
(using the AEO 2012 (Early Release))
and 2014 (using the AEO 2014 (Early
Release)), there has been a general
downward revision in world oil price
projections in the near term (e.g. 19
percent in 2020) and a sharp reduction
in projected U.S. oil imports in the near
term, due to increased U.S. supply (i.e.,
a 41 percent reduction in U.S. oil
imports by 2017 and a 36 percent
reduction in 2020). Over the longer
term, oil’s share of total U.S. imports is
projected to gradually increase after
2020 but still remain 27 percent below
the AEO2012 (Early Release) projected
level in 2035.
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Another factor influencing the
monopsony premium is that U.S.
demand on the global oil market is
projected to decline, suggesting
diminished overall influence and some
reduction in the influence of U.S. oil
demand on the world price of oil.
Outside of the U.S., projected OPEC
supply remains roughly steady as a
share of world oil supply compared to
the AEO2012 (Early Release). OPEC’s
share of world oil supply outside of the
U.S. actually increases slightly. Since
OPEC supply is estimated to be more
price sensitive than non-OPEC supply,
this means that under AEO2014 (Early
Release) world oil supply is slightly
more responsive to changes in U.S. oil
demand. Together, these factors suggest
that changes in U.S. oil import
reductions have a somewhat smaller
effect on the long-run world oil price
than changes based on 2012 estimates.
These changes in oil price and import
levels lower the monopsony portion of
energy security premium since this
portion of the security premium is
related to the change in total U.S. oil
import costs that is achieved by a
marginal reduction in U.S oil imports.
Since both the price and the quantity of
oil imports are lower, the monopsony
premium component is 46–57 percent
lower over the years 2017–2025 than the
estimates based upon the AEO 2012
(Early Release) projections.
There is disagreement in the literature
about the magnitude of the monopsony
component, and its relevance for policy
analysis. Brown and Huntington
(2013),731 for example, argue that the
United States’ refusal to exercise its
market power to reduce the world oil
price does not represent a proper
externality, and that the monopsony
731 Brown, Stephen P.A. and Hillard G.
Huntington. 2013. Assessing the U.S. Oil Security
Premium. Energy Economics, vol. 38, pp 118–127.
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component should not be considered in
calculations of the energy security
externality. However, they also note in
their earlier discussion paper (Brown
and Huntington 2010) 732 that this is a
departure from the traditional energy
security literature, which includes
sustained wealth transfers associated
with stable but higher-price oil markets.
On the other hand, Greene (2010) 733
and others in prior literature (e.g.,
Toman 1993) 734 have emphasized that
the monopsony cost component is
policy-relevant because the world oil
market is non-competitive and strongly
influenced by cartelized and
government-controlled supply
decisions. Thus, while sometimes
couched as an externality, Greene notes
that the monopsony component is best
viewed as stemming from a completely
different market failure than an
externality (Ledyard 2008),735 yet still
implying marginal social costs to
importers.
There is also a question about the
ability of gradual, long-term reductions,
such as those resulting from this
proposed rule, to reduce the world oil
price in the presence of OPEC’s
monopoly power. OPEC is currently the
world’s marginal petroleum supplier,
and could conceivably respond to
gradual reductions in U.S. demand with
gradual reductions in supply over the
course of several years as the fuel
732 Reassessing the Oil Security Premium. RFF
Discussion Paper Series, (RFF DP 10–05). doi: RFF
DP 10–05
733 Greene, D.L. 2010. Measuring energy security:
Can the United States achieve oil independence?
Energy Policy, 38(4), 1614–1621. doi:10.1016/
j.enpol.2009.01.041.
734 Reassessing the Oil Security Premium. RFF
Discussion Paper Series, (RFF DP 10–05). doi:RFF
DP 10–05.
735 Ledyard, John O. ‘‘Market Failure.’’ The New
Palgrave Dictionary of Economics. Second Edition.
Eds. Steven N. Durlauf and Lawrence E. Blume.
Palgrave Macmillan, 2008.
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ebenthall on DSK3VPTVN1PROD with MISCELLANEOUS
savings resulting from this rule grow.
However, if OPEC opts for a long-term
strategy to preserve its market share,
rather than maintain a particular price
level (as they have done recently in
response to increasing U.S. petroleum
production), reduced demand would
create downward pressure on the global
price. The Oak Ridge analysis assumes
that OPEC does respond to demand
reductions over the long run, but there
is still a price effect in the model. Under
the mid-case behavioral assumption
used in the premium calculations, OPEC
responds by gradually reducing supply
to maintain market share (consistent
with the long-term self-interested
strategy suggested by Gately (2004,
2007)).736
It is important to note that the
decrease in global petroleum prices
resulting from this rulemaking could
spur increased consumption of
petroleum in other sectors and
countries, leading to a modest uptick in
GHG emissions outside of the United
States. This increase in global fuel
consumption could offset some portion
of the GHG reduction benefits
associated with these proposed rules.
The agencies have not quantified this
increase in global GHG emissions. We
request comments, data sources and
methodologies for how global rebound
effects may be quantified.
(b) Macroeconomic Disruption
Adjustment Costs
The second component of the oil
import premium, ‘‘avoided
macroeconomic disruption/adjustment
costs’’, arises from the effect of oil
imports on the expected cost of supply
disruptions and accompanying price
increases. A sudden increase in oil
prices triggered by a disruption in world
oil supplies has two main effects: (1) It
increases the costs of oil imports in the
short-run and (2) it can lead to
macroeconomic contraction, dislocation
and Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
losses. For example, ORNL estimates the
combined value of these two factors to
be $6.34/barrel when U.S. oil imports
are reduced in 2020, with a range from
$3.07/barrel to $10.15/barrel of
imported oil reduced.
Since future disruptions in foreign oil
supplies are an uncertain prospect, each
of the disruption cost components must
be weighted by the probability that the
supply of petroleum to the U.S. will
actually be disrupted. Thus, the
‘‘expected value’’ of these costs—the
736 Gately, Dermot 2004. ‘‘OPEC’s Incentives for
Faster Output Growth’’, The Energy Journal, 25
(2):75–96; Gately, Dermot 2007. ‘‘What Oil Export
Levels Should We Expect From OPEC?’’, The
Energy Journal, 28(2):151–173.
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product of the probability that a supply
disruption will occur and the sum of
costs from reduced economic output
and the economy’s abrupt adjustment to
sharply higher petroleum prices—is the
relevant measure of their magnitude.
Further, when assessing the energy
security value of a policy to reduce oil
use, it is only the change in the
expected costs of disruption that results
from the policy that is relevant. The
expected costs of disruption may change
from lowering the normal (i.e., predisruption) level of domestic petroleum
use and imports, from any induced
alteration in the likelihood or size of
disruption, or from altering the shortrun flexibility (e.g., elasticity) of
petroleum use.
With updated oil market and
economic factors, the avoided
macroeconomic disruption component
of the energy security premiums is
slightly lower in comparison to avoided
macroeconomic disruption premiums
used in previous rulemakings. Factors
that contribute to moderately lowering
the avoided macroeconomic disruption
component are lower projected GDP,
moderately lower oil prices and slightly
smaller price increases during
prospective shocks. For example, oil
price levels are 5–19 percent lower over
the 2020–2035 period, and the likely
increase in oil prices in the event of an
oil shock are somewhat smaller, given
small increases in the responsiveness of
oil supply to changes in the world price
of oil. Overall, the avoided
macroeconomic disruption component
estimates for the oil security premiums
are 2–19 percent lower over the period
from 2020–2035 based upon different
projected oil market and economic
trends in the AEO2014 (Early Release)
compared to the AEO2012 (Early
Release).
There are several reasons why the
avoided macroeconomic disruption
premiums change only moderately. One
reason is that the macroeconomic
sensitivity to oil price shocks is
assumed unchanged in recent years
since U.S. oil consumption levels and
the value share of oil in the U.S.
economy remain at high levels. For
example, Figure IX–2 below shows that
under AEO2014 (Early Release),
projected U.S. real annual oil
expenditures continue to rise after 2015
to over $800 billion (2012$) by 2030.
The value share of oil use in the U.S.
economy remains between three and
four percent, well above the levels
observed from 1985 to 2005. A second
factor is that oil disruption risks are
little changed. The two factors
influencing disruption risks are the
probability of global supply
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40469
interruptions and the world oil supply
share from OPEC. Both factors are not
significantly different from previous
forecasts of oil market trends.
The energy security costs estimated
here follow the oil security premium
framework, which is well established in
the energy economics literature. The oil
import premium gained attention as a
guiding concept for energy policy
around the time of the second and third
major post-war oil shocks (Bohi and
Montgomery 1982, EMF 1982).737
Plummer (1982) 738 provided valuable
discussion of many of the key issues
related to the oil import premium as
well as the analogous oil stockpiling
premium. Bohi and Montgomery
(1982) 739 detailed the theoretical
foundations of the oil import premium
established many of the critical analytic
relationships through their thoughtful
analysis. Hogan (1981) 740 and
Broadman and Hogan (1986, 1988)741
revised and extended the established
analytical framework to estimate
optimal oil import premia with a more
detailed accounting of macroeconomic
effects.
Since the original work on energy
security was undertaken in the 1980’s,
there have been several reviews on this
topic. For example, Leiby, Jones, Curlee
and Lee (1997) 742 provided an extended
review of the literature and issues
regarding the estimation of the
premium. Parry and Darmstadter
(2004) 743 also provided an overview of
extant oil security premium estimates
737Bohi, Douglas R. And W. David Montgomery
1982. Social Cost of Imported and Import Policy,
Annual Review of Energy, 7:37–60. Energy
Modeling Forum, 1981. World Oil, EMF Report 6
(Stanford University Press: Stanford 39 CA. https//
emf.stanford.edu/publications/emf-6-world-oil.
738 Plummer, James L. (Ed.) 1982. Energy
Vulnerability, ‘‘Basic Concepts, Assumptions and
Numerical Results’’, pp. 13–36, (Cambridge MA:
Ballinger Publishing Co.)
739 Bohi, Douglas R. And W. David Montgomery
1982. Social Cost of Imported and U.S. Import
Policy, Annual Review of Energy, 7:37–60.
740 Hogan, William W., 1981. ‘‘Import
Management and Oil Emergencies’’, Chapter 9 in
Deese, 5 David and Joseph Nye, eds. Energy and
Security. Cambridge, MA: Ballinger Publishing Co.
741Broadman, H.G. 1986. ‘‘The Social Cost of
Imported Oil,’’ Energy Policy 14(3):242-252.
Broadman H.G. and W.W. Hogan, 1988. ‘‘Is an Oil
Import Tariff Justified? An American Debate: The
Numbers Say ‘Yes’.’’ The Energy Journal 9: 7–29.
742 Leiby, Paul N., Donald W. Jones, T. Randall
Curlee, and Russell Lee, Oil Imports: An
Assessment of Benefits and Costs, ORNL–6851, Oak
Ridge National Laboratory, November 1, 1997.
743 Parry, Ian W.H. and Joel Darmstadter 2004.
‘‘The Costs of U.S. Oil Dependency,’’ Resources for
the Future, November 17, 2004 (also published as
NCEP Technical Appendix Chapter 1: Enhancing
Oil Security, the National Commission on Energy
Policy 2004 Ending the Energy Stalemate—A
Bipartisan Strategy to Meet America’s Energy
Challenges.)
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ebenthall on DSK3VPTVN1PROD with MISCELLANEOUS
and estimated of some premium
components.
The recent economics literature on
whether oil shocks are a threat to
economic stability that they once were
is mixed. Some of the current literature
asserts that the macroeconomic
component of the energy security
externality is small. For example, the
National Research Council (2009)
argued that the non-environmental
externalities associated with
dependence on foreign oil are small,
and potentially trivial.744 Analyses by
Nordhaus (2007) and Blanchard and
Gali (2010) question the impact of more
recent oil price shocks on the
economy.745 They were motivated by
attempts to explain why the economy
actually expanded immediately after the
last shocks, and why there was no
evidence of higher energy prices being
passed on through higher wage
inflation. Using different methodologies,
they conclude that the economy has
largely gotten over its concern with
dramatic swings in oil prices.
One reason, according to Nordhaus, is
that monetary policy has become more
accommodating to the price impacts of
oil shocks. Another is that consumers
have simply decided that such
movements are temporary, and have
noted that price impacts are not passed
on as inflation in other parts of the
economy. He also notes that real
changes to productivity due to oil price
increases are incredibly modest,746 and
that the general direction of the
economy matters a great deal regarding
how the economy responds to a shock.
Estimates of the impact of a price shock
on aggregate demand are insignificantly
different from zero.
Blanchard and Gali (2010) contend
that improvements in monetary policy
(as noted above), more flexible labor
markets, and lessening of energy
744 National Research Council, 2009. Hidden
Costs of Energy: Unpriced Consequences of Energy
Production and Use. National Academy of Science,
Washington, DC.
745 See, William Nordhaus, ‘‘Who’s Afraid of a
Big Bad Oil Shock?,’’ available at https://
aida.econ.yale.edu/∼nordhaus/homepage/Big_Bad_
Oil_Shock_Meeting.pdf, and Olivier Blanchard and
Jordi Gali, ‘‘The macroeconomic Effects of Oil price
Shocks: Why are the 2000s so different from the
1970s?,’’ pp. 373–421, in The International
Dimensions of Monetary Policy, Jordi Gali and Mark
Gertler, editors, University of Chicago Press,
February 2010, available at https://www.nber.org/
chapters/c0517.pdf.
746 In fact, ‘‘. . . energy-price changes have no
effect on multifactor productivity and very little
effect on labor productivity.’’ Page 19. He calculates
the productivity effect of a doubling of oil prices as
a decrease of 0.11 percent for one year and 0.04
percent a year for ten years. Page 5. (The doubling
reflects the historical experience of the post-war
shocks, as described in Table 7.1 in Blanchard and
Gali, p. 380.)
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intensity in the economy, combined
with an absence of concurrent shocks,
all contributed to lessen the impact of
oil shocks after 1980. They find ‘‘. . .
the effects of oil price shocks have
changed over time, with steadily smaller
effects on prices and wages, as well as
on output and employment.’’ 747 In a
comment at the chapter’s end, this work
is summarized as follows: ‘‘The message
of this chapter is thus optimistic in that
it suggests a transformation in U.S.
institutions has inoculated the economy
against the responses that we saw in the
past.’’
At the same time, the implications of
the ‘‘Shale Oil Revolution’’ are now
being felt in the international markets,
with current prices at four year lows.
Analysts generally attribute this result
in part to the significant increase in
supply resulting from U.S. production,
which has put liquid petroleum
production on par with Saudi Arabia.
The price decline is also attributed to
the sustained reductions in U.S.
consumption and global demand growth
from fuel efficiency policies and high
oil prices. The resulting decrease in
foreign imports, down to about onethird of domestic consumption (from 60
percent in 2005, for example 748),
effectively permits U.S. supply to act as
a buffer against artificial or other supply
restrictions (the latter due to conflict or
natural disaster, for example).
However, other papers suggest that oil
shocks, particularly sudden supply
shocks, remain a concern. Both
Blanchard and Gali’s and Nordhaus
work were based on data and analysis
through 2006, ending with a period of
strong global economic growth and
growing global oil demand. The
Nordhaus work particularly stressed the
effects of the price increase from 2002–
2006 that were comparatively gradual
(about half the growth rate of the 1973
event and one-third that of the 1990
event). The Nordhaus study emphasizes
the robustness of the U.S. economy
during a time period through 2006. This
time period was just before rapid further
increases in the price of oil and other
commodities with oil prices more-thandoubling to over $130/barrel by mid2008, only to drop after the onset of the
largest recession since the Great
Depression.
Hamilton (2012) reviewed the
empirical literature on oil shocks and
suggested that the results are mixed,
noting that some work (e.g. Rasmussen
and Roitman (2011) finds less evidence
and Gali, p. 414.
Oil Price Drops on Oversupply, https://
www.oil-price.net/en/articles/oil-price-drops-onoversupply.php, 10/6/2014.
PO 00000
747 Blanchard
748 See,
Frm 00334
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for economic effects of oil shocks, or
declining effects of shocks (Blanchard
and Gali 2010), while other work
continues to find evidence regarding the
economic importance of oil shocks. For
example, Baumeister and Peersman
(2011) found that an oil price increase
of a given size seems to have a
decreasing effect over time, but noted
that the declining price-elasticity of
demand meant that a given physical
disruption had a bigger effect on price
and turned out to have a similar effect
on output as in the earlier data.’’ 749
Hamilton observes that ‘‘a negative
effect of oil prices on real output has
also been reported for a number of other
countries, particularly when nonlinear
functional forms have been employed’’
(citing as recent examples Kim 2012,
Engemann, Kliesen, and Owyang 2011
and Daniel, et. al. 2011). Alternatively,
rather than a declining effect, Ramey
and Vine (2010) found ‘‘remarkable
stability in the response of aggregate real
variables to oil shocks once we account
for the extra costs imposed on the
economy in the 1970s by price controls
and a complex system of entitlements
that led to some rationing and
shortages.’’ 750
Some of the recent literature on oil
price shocks has emphasized that
economic impacts depend on the nature
of the oil shock, with differences
between price increases caused by
sudden supply loss and those caused by
rapidly growing demand. Most recent
analyses of oil price shocks have
confirmed that ‘‘demand-driven’’ oil
price shocks have greater effects on oil
prices and tend to have positive effects
on the economy while ‘‘supply-driven’’
oil shocks still have negative economic
impacts (Baumeister, Peersman and
Robays, 2010). A recent paper by Kilian
and Vigfusson (2014), for example,
assigned a more prominent role to the
effects of price increases that are
unusual, in the sense of being beyond
range of recent experience. Kilian and
Vigfussen also conclude that the
difference in response to oil shocks may
well stem from the different effects of
demand- and supply-based price
increases: ‘‘One explanation is that oil
price shocks are associated with a range
of oil demand and oil supply shocks,
some of which stimulate the U.S.
749 Hamilton, J.D. (2012). Oil Prices, Exhaustible
Resources, and Economic Growth. In Handbook of
Energy and Climate Change. Retrieved from https://
econweb.ucsd.edu/∼jhamilto/handbook_
climate.pdf.
750 Ramey, V.A., & Vine, D.J. (2010). ‘‘Oil,
Automobiles, and the U.S. Economy: How Much
have Things Really Changed?’’, National Bureau of
Economic Research Working Papers, WP 16067
(June). Retrieved from https://www.nber.org/papers/
w16067.pdf.
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40471
Finally, despite continuing
uncertainty about oil market behavior
and outcomes and the sensitivity of the
U.S. economy to oil shocks, it is
generally agreed that it is beneficial to
reduce petroleum fuel consumption
from an energy security standpoint.
Reducing fuel consumption reduces the
amount of domestic economic activity
associated with a commodity whose
price depends on volatile international
markets. Also, reducing U.S. oil import
levels reduces the likelihood and
significance of supply disruptions.
The last often-identified component
of the full economic costs of U.S. oil
imports are the costs to the U.S.
taxpayers of existing U.S. energy
security policies. The two primary
examples are maintaining the Strategic
Petroleum Reserve (SPR) and
maintaining a military presence to help
secure a stable oil supply from
potentially vulnerable regions of the
world. The SPR is the largest stockpile
of government-owned emergency crude
oil in the world. Established in the
aftermath of the 1973/1974 oil embargo,
the SPR provides the U.S. with a
response option should a disruption in
commercial oil supplies threaten the
U.S. economy. It also allows the U.S. to
meet part of its International Energy
Agency obligation to maintain
emergency oil stocks, and it provides a
national defense fuel reserve. While the
costs for building and maintaining the
SPR are more clearly related to U.S. oil
use and imports, historically these costs
have not varied in response to changes
in U.S. oil import levels. Thus, while
the effect of the SPR in moderating price
shocks is factored into the ORNL
analysis, the cost of maintaining the
SPR is excluded.
U.S. military costs are excluded from
the analysis performed by ORNL
because their attribution to particular
missions or activities is difficult, and
because it is not clear that these outlays
would decline in response to
incremental reductions in U.S. oil
imports. Most military forces serve a
broad range of security and foreign
policy objectives. The agencies also
recognize that attempts to attribute some
share of U.S. military costs to oil
imports are further challenged by the
need to estimate how those costs might
751 Historical data are from EIA Annual Energy
Review, various editions. For data since 2011 and
projected data: Source is EIA Annual Energy
Outlook (AEO) 2014 (Reference Case). See Table 11,
file ‘‘aeotab_11.xlsx’’ and Table 20 (Macroeconomic
Indicators,’’ (file ‘‘aeotab_20.xlsx’’).
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of an oil-demand shock driven by global
economic activity, and vary for oilimporting countries compared to energy
exporters,’’ and ‘‘oil importers
[including the U.S.] typically face a
long-lived fall in economic activity in
response to a supply-driven surge in oil
prices’’ but almost all countries see an
increase in real output for an oildemand disturbance. Note that the
energy security premium calculation in
this analysis is based on price shocks
from potential future supply events
only.
(c) Cost of Existing U.S. Energy Security
Policies
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economy in the short run and some of
which slow down U.S. growth (see
Kilian 2009a). How recessionary the
response to an oil price shock is thus
depends on the average composition of
oil demand and oil supply shocks over
the sample period.’’
The general conclusion that oil
supply-driven shocks reduce economic
output is also reached in a recently
published paper by Cashin et al. (2014)
for 38 countries from 1979–2011. ‘‘The
results indicate that the economic
consequences of a supply-driven oilprice shock are very different from those
40472
Federal Register / Vol. 80, No. 133 / Monday, July 13, 2015 / Proposed Rules
vary with incremental variations in U.S.
oil imports.
(3) Energy Security Benefits of This
Program
Using the ORNL ‘‘oil premium’’
methodology, updating world oil price
values and energy trends using AEO
2014 (Early Release) and using the
estimated fuel savings from the
proposed rules estimated from the
MOVES/CAFE models, the agencies has
calculated the annual energy security
benefits of this proposed rule through
2050.752 Since the agencies are taking a
global perspective with respect to
valuing greenhouse gas benefits from
the rules, only the avoided
macroeconomic adjustment/disruption
portion of the energy security premium
is used in the energy security benefits
estimates present below. These results
are shown below in Table IX–25. The
agencies have also calculated the net
present value at 3 percent and 7 percent
discount rates of model year lifetime
benefits associated with energy security;
these values are presented in Table IX–
26.
a For an explanation of analytical Methods A
and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and
more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
TABLE IX–26—DISCOUNTED MODEL
YEAR LIFETIME ENERGY SECURITY
BENEFITS DUE TO THE PREFERRED
ALTERNATIVE AT 3% AND 7% DISCOUNT RATES USING METHOD B
AND RELATIVE TO THE LESS DYNAMIC BASELINE
[Millions of 2012$] a
Calendar year
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
3%
discount
rate
7%
discount
rate
..................
..................
..................
..................
..................
..................
..................
..................
..................
..................
..................
..................
86
85
84
534
579
621
996
1,060
1,121
1,375
1,388
1,397
60
56
53
326
341
353
546
560
571
676
657
637
Sum ..................
9,325
4,837
TABLE IX–25—ANNUAL U.S. ENERGY
Note:
a For an explanation of analytical Methods A
SECURITY BENEFITS OF THE PREFERRED ALTERNATIVE AND NET and B, please see Section I.D; for an explaof the
1a, and
PRESENT VALUES AT 3% AND 7% nation dynamicless dynamic baseline,see Secmore
baseline, 1b, please
DISCOUNT RATES USING METHOD B tion X.A.1.
AND RELATIVE TO THE LESS DYJ. Other Impacts
NAMIC BASELINE
[In millions of 2012$] a
ebenthall on DSK3VPTVN1PROD with MISCELLANEOUS
Year
2018 ..........................................
2019 ..........................................
2020 ..........................................
2021 ..........................................
2022 ..........................................
2023 ..........................................
2024 ..........................................
2025 ..........................................
2026 ..........................................
2027 ..........................................
2028 ..........................................
2029 ..........................................
2030 ..........................................
2035 ..........................................
2040 ..........................................
2050 ..........................................
NPV, 3% ...................................
NPV, 7% ...................................
Benefits
(2012$)
10
20
31
77
140
211
328
456
596
770
947
1,126
1,306
2,156
2,920
3,498
28,947
11,857
Note:
752 In order to determine the energy security
benefits beyond 2040, we use the 2040 energy
security premium multiplied by the estimate fuel
savings from the proposed rule. Since the AEO 2014
(Early Release) only goes to 2040, we only calculate
energy security premiums to 2040.
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Highway Administration to estimate
these increased external costs caused by
added driving.753 We provide the details
behind the estimates in Chapter 8.7 of
the draft RIA. The agencies request
comment on all input metrics used in
the analysis of accidents, congestion
and noise and on the calculation
methodology. Table IX–27 presents the
estimated annual impacts associated
with accidents, congestion and noise
along with net present values at both 3
percent and 7 percent discount rates.
Table IX–28 presents the estimated
discounted model year lifetime impacts
associated with accidents, congestion
and noise.
(1) Costs of Noise, Congestion and
Accidents Associated With Additional
(Rebound) Driving
Although it provides benefits to
drivers as described above, increased
vehicle use associated with the rebound
effect also contributes to increased
traffic congestion, motor vehicle
accidents, and highway noise.
Depending on how the additional travel
is distributed over the day and where it
takes place, additional vehicle use can
contribute to traffic congestion and
delays by increasing the number of
vehicles using facilities that are already
heavily traveled. These added delays
impose higher costs on drivers and
other vehicle occupants in the form of
increased travel time and operating
expenses. At the same time, this
additional travel also increases costs
associated with traffic accidents and
vehicle noise.
The agencies estimate these costs
using the same methodology as used in
the two light-duty and the HD Phase 1
rule analyses, which relies on estimates
of congestion, accident, and noise costs
imposed by automobiles and light
trucks developed by the Federal
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TABLE IX–27—ANNUAL COSTS ASSOCIATED WITH ACCIDENTS, CONGESTION AND NOISE AND NET PRESENT
VALUES AT 3% AND 7% DISCOUNT
RATES USING METHOD B AND RELATIVE TO THE LESS DYNAMIC BASELINE
[Millions of 2012$] a
Calendar year
2018 ......................................
2019 ......................................
2020 ......................................
2021 ......................................
2022 ......................................
2023 ......................................
2024 ......................................
2025 ......................................
2026 ......................................
2027 ......................................
2028 ......................................
2029 ......................................
2030 ......................................
2035 ......................................
2040 ......................................
2050 ......................................
NPV, 3% ...............................
NPV, 7% ...............................
Costs of
accidents,
congestion,
and noise
$0
0
0
117
172
226
279
330
379
425
467
506
542
676
758
871
9,334
4,202
Note:
a For an explanation of analytical Methods A
and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and
more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
753 These estimates were developed by FHWA for
use in its 1997 Federal Highway Cost Allocation
Study; https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policy/hcas/final/
index.htm (last accessed July 8, 2012).
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TABLE IX–28—DISCOUNTED MODEL
YEAR LIFETIME COSTS OF ACCIDENTS, CONGESTION AND NOISE AT
3% AND 7% DISCOUNT RATES
USING METHOD B AND RELATIVE TO
THE LESS DYNAMIC BASELINE
[Millions of 2012$] a
Calendar year
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
3%
discount
rate
7%
discount
rate
..................
..................
..................
..................
..................
..................
..................
..................
..................
..................
..................
..................
132
146
162
450
438
427
424
422
420
415
409
402
85
94
103
284
266
250
239
229
219
209
198
187
Sum ...............
4,247
2,362
Note:
a For an explanation of analytical Methods A
and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and
more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
ebenthall on DSK3VPTVN1PROD with MISCELLANEOUS
recommended values of travel time
savings to convert the resulting time
savings to their economic value,
including a 1.2 percent growth rate in
those time savings going forward.754
The input metrics used in the analysis
are presented in greater detail in draft
RIA Chapter 9.7. The annual benefits
associated with reduced refueling time
are shown in Table IX–29 along with net
present values at both 3 percent and 7
percent discount rates. The discounted
model year lifetime benefits are shown
in Table IX–30.
(2) Benefits Associated With Reduced
Refueling Time
By reducing the frequency with which
drivers typically refuel their vehicles
and by extending the upper limit of the
range that can be traveled before
requiring refueling (i.e., future fuel tank
sizes remain constant), savings would
be realized associated with less time
spent refueling vehicles. Alternatively,
refill intervals may remain the same
(i.e., future fuel tank sizes get smaller),
resulting in the same number of refills
as today but less time spent per refill
because there would be less fuel to
refill. The agencies have estimated this
impact using the former approach—by
assuming that future tank sizes remain
constant.
The savings in refueling time are
calculated as the total amount of time
the driver of a typical truck in each class
would save each year as a consequence
of pumping less fuel into the vehicle’s
tank. The calculation does not include
any reduction in time spent searching
for a fueling station or other time spent
at the station; it is assumed that time
savings occur only when truck operators
are actually refueling their vehicles.
The calculation uses the reduced
number of gallons consumed by truck
type and divides that value by the tank
volume and refill amount to get the
number of refills, then multiplies that
by the time per refill to determine the
number of hours saved in a given year.
The calculation then applies DOT-
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TABLE IX–29—ANNUAL REFUELING
BENEFITS AND NET PRESENT VALUES AT 3% AND 7% DISCOUNT
RATES USING METHOD B AND RELATIVE TO THE LESS DYNAMIC BASELINE
[Millions of 2012$] a
Refueling
benefits
Calendar year
2018 ..........................................
2019 ..........................................
2020 ..........................................
2021 ..........................................
2022 ..........................................
2023 ..........................................
2024 ..........................................
2025 ..........................................
2026 ..........................................
2027 ..........................................
2028 ..........................................
2029 ..........................................
2030 ..........................................
2035 ..........................................
2040 ..........................................
2050 ..........................................
NPV, 3% ...................................
NPV, 7% ...................................
3
6
9
25
47
72
113
157
205
266
327
386
444
698
890
1,195
9,410
3,868
Note:
a For an explanation of analytical Methods A
and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and
more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
TABLE IX–30—DISCOUNTED MODEL
YEAR LIFETIME REFUELING BENEFITS
USING METHOD B AND RELATIVE TO
THE LESS DYNAMIC BASELINE
[Millions of 2012$] a
3%
discount
rate
Model year
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
..................
..................
..................
..................
..................
..................
..................
..................
23
22
21
163
184
203
325
349
7%
discount
rate
16
15
14
101
110
117
181
187
754 U.S. Department of Transportation, Valuation
of Travel Guidance, July 9, 2014, at page 14.
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TABLE IX–30—DISCOUNTED MODEL
YEAR LIFETIME REFUELING BENEFITS
USING METHOD B AND RELATIVE TO
THE LESS DYNAMIC BASELINE—
Continued
[Millions of 2012$] a
Model year
2026
2027
2028
2029
3%
discount
rate
7%
discount
rate
..................
..................
..................
..................
372
466
465
463
191
231
222
213
Sum ...............
3,055
1,597
Note:
a For an explanation of analytical Methods A
and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and
more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
(3) Benefits of Increased Travel
Associated With Rebound Driving
The increase in travel associated with
the rebound effect produces additional
benefits to vehicle owners and
operators, which reflect the value of the
added (or more desirable) social and
economic opportunities that become
accessible with additional travel. The
analysis estimates the economic benefits
from increased rebound-effect driving as
the sum of fuel expenditures incurred
plus the consumer surplus from the
additional accessibility it provides. As
evidenced by the fact that vehicles make
more frequent or longer trips when the
cost of driving declines, the benefits
from this added travel exceed added
expenditures for the fuel consumed. The
amount by which the benefits from this
increased driving exceed its increased
fuel costs measures the net benefits from
the additional travel, usually referred to
as increased consumer surplus.
The agencies’ analysis estimates the
economic value of the increased
consumer surplus provided by added
driving using the conventional
approximation, which is one half of the
product of the decline in vehicle
operating costs per vehicle-mile and the
resulting increase in the annual number
of miles driven. Because it depends on
the extent of improvement in fuel
economy, the value of benefits from
increased vehicle use changes by model
year and varies among alternative
standards. Under even those alternatives
that would impose the highest
standards, however, the magnitude of
the consumer surplus from additional
vehicle use represents a small fraction
of this benefit.
The annual benefits associated with
increased travel are shown in Table IX–
31 along with net present values at both
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3 percent and 7 percent discount rates.
The discounted model year lifetime
benefits are shown in Table IX–32.
TABLE IX–31—ANNUAL VALUE OF INCREASED TRAVEL AND NET PRESENT
VALUES AT 3% AND 7% DISCOUNT
RATES USING METHOD B AND RELATIVE TO THE LESS DYNAMIC BASE-
TABLE IX–31—ANNUAL VALUE OF INCREASED TRAVEL AND NET PRESENT
VALUES AT 3% AND 7% DISCOUNT
RATES USING METHOD B AND RELATIVE TO THE LESS DYNAMIC BASELINE—Continued
TABLE IX–31—ANNUAL VALUE OF INCREASED TRAVEL AND NET PRESENT
VALUES AT 3% AND 7% DISCOUNT
RATES USING METHOD B AND RELATIVE TO THE LESS DYNAMIC BASELINE—Continued
[Millions of 2012$] a
[Millions of 2012$] a
Benefits of
increased
travel
Calendar year
LINE
[Millions of 2012$] a
Calendar year
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
Benefits of
increased
travel
..........................................
..........................................
..........................................
..........................................
..........................................
0
0
0
445
636
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2035
2040
..........................................
..........................................
..........................................
..........................................
..........................................
..........................................
..........................................
..........................................
..........................................
..........................................
821
1,001
1,179
1,346
1,506
1,647
1,783
1,909
2,445
2,873
Calendar year
2050 ..........................................
NPV, 3% ...................................
NPV, 7% ...................................
Benefits of
increased
travel
3,286
34,240
15,316
Note:
a For an explanation of analytical Methods A
and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and
more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
TABLE IX–32—DISCOUNTED MODEL YEAR LIFETIME VALUE OF INCREASED TRAVEL AT 3% AND 7% DISCOUNT RATES
USING METHOD B AND RELATIVE TO THE LESS DYNAMIC BASELINE
[Millions of 2012$] a
3%
discount
rate
Calendar year
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
7%
discount
rate
.............................................................................................................................................................
.............................................................................................................................................................
.............................................................................................................................................................
.............................................................................................................................................................
.............................................................................................................................................................
.............................................................................................................................................................
.............................................................................................................................................................
.............................................................................................................................................................
.............................................................................................................................................................
.............................................................................................................................................................
.............................................................................................................................................................
.............................................................................................................................................................
$554
618
686
1,510
1,488
1,463
1,434
1,442
1,447
1,421
1,415
1,406
$353
390
429
942
894
847
799
774
748
708
678
649
Sum ..........................................................................................................................................................
14,884
8,211
Note:
a For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
ebenthall on DSK3VPTVN1PROD with MISCELLANEOUS
K. Summary of Benefits and Costs
This section presents the costs,
benefits, and other economic impacts of
the proposed Phase 2 standards. It is
important to note that NHTSA’s
proposed fuel consumption standards
and EPA’s proposed GHG standards
would both be in effect, and would
jointly lead to increased fuel efficiency
and reductions in GHG and non-GHG
emissions. The individual categories of
benefits and costs presented in the
tables below are defined more fully and
presented in more detail in Chapter 8 of
the draft RIA. These include:
• The vehicle program costs (costs of
complying with the vehicle CO2 and
fuel consumption standards),
• changes in fuel expenditures
associated with reduced fuel use by
more efficient vehicles and increased
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fuel use associated with the ‘‘rebound’’
effect, both of which result from the
program,
• the global economic value of
reductions in GHGs,
• the economic value of reductions in
non-GHG pollutants,
• costs associated with increases in
noise, congestion, and accidents
resulting from increased vehicle use,
• savings in drivers’ time from less
frequent refueling,
• benefits of increased vehicle use
associated with the ‘‘rebound’’ effect,
and
• the economic value of
improvements in U.S. energy security
impacts.
For a discussion of the cost of
ownership and the agencies’ payback
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analysis of vehicles covered by this
proposal, please see Section IX.M.
The agencies conducted coordinated
and complementary analyses using two
analytical methods referred to as
Method A and Method B. For an
explanation of these methods, please see
Section I.D. And as discussed in Section
X.A.1, the agencies present estimates of
benefits and costs that are measured
against two different assumptions about
improvements in fuel efficiency that
might occur in the absence of the Phase
2 standards. The first case (Alternative
1a) uses a baseline that projects very
little improvement in new vehicles in
the absence of new Phase 2 standards,
and the second (Alternative 1b) uses a
more dynamic baseline that projects
more significant improvements in
vehicle fuel efficiency.
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Table IX–33 shows benefits and costs
for the proposed standards from the
perspective of a program designed to
improve the nation’s energy security
and conserve energy by improving fuel
efficiency. From this viewpoint,
technology costs occur when the vehicle
is purchased. Fuel savings are counted
as benefits that occur over the lifetimes
of the vehicles produced during the
model years subject to the Phase 2
standards as they consume less fuel.
The table shows that benefits far
outweigh the costs, and the preferred
alternative is anticipated to result in
large net benefits to the U.S economy.
TABLE IX–33—LIFETIME BENEFITS & COSTS OF THE PREFERRED ALTERNATIVE FOR MODEL YEARS 2018–2029 VEHICLES
USING ANALYSIS METHOD A
[Billions of 2012$ discounted at 3% and 7%]
Baseline 1a
Baseline 1b
Category
3%
7%
3%
7%
Vehicle Program: Technology and Indirect Costs, Normal Profit on Additional Investments ........................................................................................
Additional Routine Maintenance ......................................................................
Congestion, Accidents, and Noise from Increased Vehicle Use .....................
25.4
1.1
4.7
17.1
0.6
2.8
25.0
1.0
4.5
16.8
0.6
2.6
Total Costs ...............................................................................................
Fuel Savings (valued at pre-tax prices) ...........................................................
Savings from Less Frequent Refueling ...........................................................
Economic Benefits from Additional Vehicle Use .............................................
Reduced Climate Damages from GHG Emissions a .......................................
Reduced Health Damages from Non-GHG Emissions ...................................
Increased U.S. Energy Security ......................................................................
31.1
175.1
3.1
15.1
34.9
38.8
8.9
20.5
94.2
1.6
8.4
34.9
20.7
4.7
30.5
165.1
2.9
14.7
32.9
37.2
8.1
20.0
89.2
1.5
8.2
32.9
20.0
4.3
Total Benefits ............................................................................................
276
165
261
156
Net Benefits .......................................................................................
245
144
231
136
Note:
a Benefits and net benefits use the 3 percent average global SCC value applied only to CO emissions; GHG reductions include CO , CH ,
2
2
4
N2O and HFC reductions, and include benefits to other nations as well as the U.S. See Draft RIA Chapter 8.5 and Preamble Section IX.G for further discussion.
Table IX–34, Table IX–35, and Table
IX–36 report benefits and cost from the
perspective of reducing GHG. Table IX–
34 shows the annual impacts and net
benefits of the preferred alternative for
selected future years, together with the
net present values of cumulative annual
impacts from 2018 through 2050,
discounted at 3 percent and 7 percent
rates. Table IX–35 and Table IX–36
show the discounted lifetime costs and
benefits for each model year affected by
the Phase 2 standards at 3 percent and
7 percent discount rates, respectively.
TABLE IX–34—ANNUAL BENEFITS & COSTS OF THE PREFERRED ALTERNATIVE AND NET PRESENT VALUES AT 3% AND 7%
DISCOUNT RATES USING METHOD B AND RELATIVE TO THE LESS DYNAMIC BASELINE
[Billions of 2012$] a
2018
ebenthall on DSK3VPTVN1PROD with MISCELLANEOUS
Vehicle program ..........................................................................................................
Maintenance ................................................................................................................
Pre-tax fuel ..................................................................................................................
Energy security ...........................................................................................................
Accidents/Congestion/Noise .......................................................................................
Refueling impacts ........................................................................................................
Travel value .................................................................................................................
Non-GHG impacts .......................................................................................................
SCCb c
SCC_CO2; 5% Avg .....................................................................................................
SCC_CO2; 3% Avg .....................................................................................................
SCC_CO2; 2.5% Avg ..................................................................................................
SCC_CO2; 3% 95th .....................................................................................................
Net benefits d
SCC_CO2; 5% Avg .....................................................................................................
SCC_CO2; 3% Avg .....................................................................................................
SCC_CO2; 2.5% Avg ..................................................................................................
SCC_CO2; 3% 95th .....................................................................................................
2021
2024
2030
2035
2040
2050
NPV,
3%
NPV,
7%
¥0.1
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
to
0.1
¥2.4
0.0
1.7
0.1
¥0.1
0.0
0.4
0.4
to
0.9
¥3.7
¥0.1
6.9
0.3
¥0.3
0.1
1.0
1.0
to
2.4
¥5.4
¥0.1
24.0
1.3
¥0.5
0.4
1.9
3.3
to
8.3
¥5.9
¥0.1
37.2
2.2
¥0.7
0.7
2.4
4.8
to
12.1
¥6.3
¥0.1
47.8
2.9
¥0.8
0.9
2.9
5.7
to
14.3
¥7.0
¥0.1
57.5
3.5
¥0.9
1.2
3.3
7.0
to
17.5
¥86.8
¥1.8
495.6
28.9
¥9.3
9.4
34.2
69.
to
157.0
¥41.1
¥0.9
206.7
11.9
¥4.2
3.9
15.3
26.6
to
60.4
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.3
0.5
1.0
0.4
1.3
1.9
4.0
1.5
4.8
6.9
14.6
2.5
7.4
10.6
23.2
3.3
9.7
13.7
30.3
5.0
13.6
18.5
42.0
22.1
103.1
164.1
320.5
22.1
103.1
164.1
320.5
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.7
0.8
1.3
6.4
7.3
7.9
10.0
28.8
32.1
34.2
41.9
46.8
51.7
54.9
67.5
60.6
66.9
70.9
87.6
74.6
83.2
88.2
111.7
605.8
686.8
747.8
904.1
257.1
338.1
399.1
555.5
Notes:
a Positive values denote decreased social costs (benefits); negative values denote increased social costs. For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please
see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
b Net present value of reduced CO emissions is calculated differently than other benefits. The same discount rate used to discount the value of damages from fu2
ture emissions (SC–CO2 at 5, 3, 2.5 percent) is used to calculate net present value of SC–CO2 for internal consistency. Refer to the SCC TSD for more detail.
c Section IX.G notes that SCCO increases over time. For the years 2012–2050, the SC–CO estimates range as follows: for Average SC–CO at 5%: $12–$28; for
2
2
2
Average SC–CO2 at 3%: $37–$77; for Average SC–CO2 at 2.5%: $58–$105; and for 95th percentile SC–CO2 at 3%: $105–$237. Section IX.G also presents these
SC–CO2 estimates.
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d Net impacts are the summation of results within columns of the table with the exception that the net impacts at each SC–CO value include only the SC–CO im2
2
pacts at that value.
TABLE IX–35—DISCOUNTED MODEL YEAR LIFETIME BENEFITS & COSTS OF THE PREFERRED ALTERNATIVE USING
METHOD B AND RELATIVE TO THE LESS DYNAMIC BASELINE
[Billions of 2012$ discounted at 3%] a
2018
Vehicle program ..................................................
Maintenance ........................................................
Pre-tax fuel ..........................................................
Energy security ...................................................
Accidents/Congestion/Noise ...............................
Refueling .............................................................
Travel value ........................................................
Non-GHG ............................................................
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
¥0.1
¥0.1
1.9
0.1
¥0.1
0.0
0.6
0.2
to
0.5
¥0.1
0.0
1.9
0.1
¥0.1
0.0
0.6
0.2
to
0.4
¥0.1
0.0
1.8
0.1
¥0.2
0.0
0.7
0.2
to
0.4
¥2.0
¥0.1
11.1
0.5
¥0.4
0.2
1.5
2.0
to
4.5
¥1.9
¥0.1
11.5
0.6
¥0.4
0.2
1.5
2.0
to
4.5
¥1.9
¥0.1
11.9
0.6
¥0.4
0.2
1.5
2.0
to
4.5
¥2.8
¥0.1
18.9
1.0
¥0.4
0.3
1.4
2.9
to
6.6
¥2.7
¥0.1
19.6
1.1
¥0.4
0.3
1.4
3.0
to
6.8
¥2.7
¥0.1
20.2
1.1
¥0.4
0.4
1.4
2.6
to
5.9
¥3.7
¥0.1
24.1
1.4
¥0.4
0.5
1.4
3.1
to
6.9
¥3.6
¥0.1
24.1
1.4
¥0.4
0.5
1.4
3.1
to
6.9
¥3.5
¥0.1
24.1
1.4
¥0.4
0.5
1.4
3.1
to
7.0
¥25.1
¥1.1
171.1
9.3
¥4.2
3.1
14.9
24.4
to
55.0
0.1
0.4
0.6
1.1
0.1
0.4
0.6
1.1
0.1
0.4
0.6
1.1
0.5
2.2
3.4
6.6
0.5
2.3
3.5
6.9
0.5
2.3
3.6
7.2
0.9
3.7
5.8
11.5
0.9
3.9
6.1
12.0
0.9
4.0
6.3
12.4
1.1
4.8
7.6
14.9
1.1
4.8
7.6
15.0
1.1
4.9
7.7
15.1
7.8
34.0
53.4
105.0
2.8
3.0
3.2
3.8
2.7
3.0
3.2
3.8
2.7
3.0
3.2
3.7
14.6
16.2
17.4
20.7
15.1
16.8
18.1
21.5
15.5
17.3
18.6
22.1
23.9
26.8
28.9
34.5
25.0
28.0
30.2
36.0
25.1
28.2
30.5
36.6
29.2
33.0
35.7
43.1
29.4
33.1
35.9
43.3
29.4
33.2
36.0
43.5
215.5
241.7
261.1
312.7
SCC; b c.
SCC_CO2; 5% Avg .............................................
SCC_CO2; 3% Avg .............................................
SCC_CO2; 2.5% Avg ..........................................
SCC_CO2; 3% 95th ............................................
Net benefits d
SCC_CO2; 5% Avg .............................................
SCC_CO2; 3% Avg .............................................
SCC_CO2; 2.5% Avg ..........................................
SCC_CO2; 3% 95th ............................................
2029
Sum
Notes:
a Positive values denote decreased social costs (benefits); negative values denote increased social costs. For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please
see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.c
b Net present value of reduced CO emissions is calculated differently than other benefits. The same discount rate used to discount the value of damages from fu2
ture emissions (SC–CO2 at 5, 3, 2.5 percent) is used to calculate net present value of SC–CO2 for internal consistency. Refer to the SCC TSD for more detail.
c Section IX.G notes that SCC increases over time. For the years 2012–2050, the SCC estimates range as follows: for Average SC–CO at 5%: $12–$28; for Aver2
age SC–CO2 at 3%: $37–$77; for Average SC–CO2 at 2.5%: $58–$105; and for 95th percentile SC–CO2 at 3%: $105–$237. Section IX.G also presents these SCC
estimates.
d Net impacts are the summation of results within columns of the table with the exception that the net impacts at each SC–CO value include only the SCCO im2
2
pacts at that value.
TABLE IX–36—DISCOUNTED MODEL YEAR LIFETIME BENEFITS & COSTS OF THE PREFERRED ALTERNATIVE USING
METHOD B AND RELATIVE TO THE LESS DYNAMIC BASELINE
[Billions of 2012$ discounted at 7%] a thnsp;b
2018
Vehicle program ..................................................
Maintenance ........................................................
Pre-tax fuel ..........................................................
Energy security ...................................................
Accidents/Congestion/Noise ...............................
Refueling .............................................................
Travel value ........................................................
Non-GHG ............................................................
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
¥0.1
0.0
1.4
0.1
¥0.1
0.0
0.4
0.1
to
0.3
¥0.1
0.0
1.3
0.1
¥0.1
0.0
0.4
0.1
to
0.3
¥0.1
0.0
1.2
0.1
¥0.1
0.0
0.4
0.1
to
0.3
¥1.6
¥0.1
6.9
0.3
¥0.3
0.1
0.9
1.1
to
2.5
¥1.4
¥0.1
6.9
0.3
¥0.3
0.1
0.9
1.1
to
2.4
¥1.4
¥0.1
6.8
0.4
¥0.2
0.1
0.8
1.0
to
2.3
¥1.9
¥0.1
10.5
0.5
¥0.2
0.2
0.8
1.4
to
3.3
¥1.8
¥0.1
10.4
0.6
¥0.2
0.2
0.8
1.4
to
3.2
¥1.7
¥0.1
10.4
0.6
¥0.2
0.2
0.7
1.2
to
2.7
¥2.3
¥0.1
11.9
0.7
¥0.2
0.2
0.7
1.3
to
3.0
¥2.1
¥0.1
11.5
0.7
¥0.2
0.2
0.7
1.3
to
2.9
¥2.0
0.0
11.0
0.6
¥0.2
0.2
0.6
1.3
to
2.8
¥16.6
¥0.6
90.1
4.8
¥2.4
1.6
8.2
11.5
to
26.0
0.1
0.4
0.6
1.1
0.1
0.4
0.6
1.1
0.1
0.4
0.6
1.1
0.5
2.2
3.4
6.6
0.5
2.3
3.5
6.9
0.5
2.3
3.6
7.2
0.9
3.7
5.8
11.5
0.9
3.9
6.1
12.0
0.9
4.0
6.3
12.4
1.1
4.8
7.6
14.9
1.1
4.8
7.6
15.0
1.1
4.9
7.7
15.1
7.8
34.0
53.4
105.0
1.9
2.2
2.4
2.9
1.8
2.1
2.3
2.8
1.7
2.0
2.2
2.8
8.7
10.3
11.5
14.8
8.7
10.4
11.7
15.1
8.7
10.5
11.8
15.3
13.0
15.8
17.9
23.6
13.1
16.1
18.3
24.2
12.7
15.8
18.1
24.2
14.3
18.0
20.7
28.1
13.8
17.6
20.4
27.8
13.4
17.2
20.0
27.4
111.8
138.0
157.4
209.0
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SCC b c
SCC_CO2; 5% Avg .............................................
SCC_CO2; 3% Avg .............................................
SCC_CO2; 2.5% Avg ..........................................
SCC_CO2; 3% 95th ............................................
Net benefits d
SCC_CO2; 5% Avg .............................................
SCC_CO2; 3% Avg .............................................
SCC_CO2; 2.5% Avg ..........................................
SCC_CO2; 3% 95th ............................................
2029
Sum
Notes:
a Positive values denote decreased social costs (benefits); negative values denote increased social costs. For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please
see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
b Net present value of reduced CO emissions is calculated differently than other benefits. The same discount rate used to discount the value of damages from fu2
ture emissions (SC–CO2 at 5, 3, 2.5 percent) is used to calculate net present value of SCC for internal consistency. Refer to the SCC TSD for more detail.
c Section IX.G notes that SC–CO increases over time. For the years 2012–2050, the SC–CO estimates range as follows: for Average SC–CO at 5%: $12–$28;
2
2
2
for Average SC–CO2 at 3%: $37–$77; for Average SC–CO2 at 2.5%: $58–$105; and for 95th percentile SCCO2 at 3%: $105–$237. Section IX.G also presents these
SC–CO2 estimates.
d Net impacts are the summation of results within columns of the table with the exception that the net impacts at each SC–CO value include only the SC–CO im2
2
pacts at that value.
The agencies note that this proposal
accounts for other regulations that have
been finalized. Until regulations are
finalized, there is no assurance they will
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be implemented and thus any potential
provisions of those potential regulations
are uncertain. The agencies note that
NHTSA has started the rulemaking
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process for regulations that involve
technologies that could potentially
affect medium- and heavy-duty fuel
consumption (e.g. vehicle speed
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limiters, etc.). If any such rulemakings
are finalized prior to this rulemaking
becoming final, this rulemaking will
take those regulations into account.
L. Employment Impacts
Executive Order 13563 (January 18,
2011) directs federal agencies to
consider regulatory impacts on, among
other criteria, job creation.755 According
to the Executive Order ‘‘Our regulatory
system must protect public health,
welfare, safety, and our environment
while promoting economic growth,
innovation, competitiveness, and job
creation. It must be based on the best
available science.’’ Analysis of
employment impacts of a regulation is
not part of a standard benefit-cost
analysis (except to the extent that labor
costs contribute to costs). Employment
impacts of federal rules are of general
interest, however, and have been
particularly so, historically, in the auto
sector during periods of challenging
labor market conditions. For this reason,
we are describing the connections of
these proposed standards to
employment in the regulated sector, the
motor vehicle manufacturing sector, as
well as the motor vehicle body and
trailer and motor vehicle parts
manufacturing sectors.
The overall effect of the proposed
rules on motor vehicle sector
employment depends on the relative
magnitude of output and substitution
effects, described below. Because we do
not have quantitative estimates of the
output effect, and only a partial estimate
of the substitution effect, we cannot
reach a quantitative estimate of the
overall employment effects of the
proposed rules on motor vehicle sector
employment or even whether the total
effect will be positive or negative.
According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor
Statistics, in 2014, about 850,000 people
in the U.S. were employed in the Motor
Vehicle and Parts Manufacturing Sector
(NAICS 3361, 3362, and 3363),756 the
directly regulated sector. The
employment effects of these proposed
rules are expected to expand beyond the
regulated sector. Though some of the
parts used to achieve the proposed
standards are likely to be built by motor
vehicle manufacturers (including trailer
manufacturers) themselves, the motor
vehicle parts manufacturing sector also
plays a significant role in providing
those parts, and will also be affected by
755 Available at https://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/
default/files/omb/inforeg/eo12866/eo13563_
01182011.pdf.
756 U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics. ‘‘Automotive Industry; Employment,
Earnings, and Hours.’’ https://www.bls.gov/iag/tgs/
iagauto.htm, accessed 8/18/14.
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changes in vehicle sales. Changes in
truck sales, discussed in Section IX.F.
(2), could also affect employment for
truck and trailer vendors. As discussed
in Section IX.C., this proposed rule is
expected to reduce the amount of fuel
these vehicles use, and thus affect the
petroleum refinery and supply
industries as well. Finally, since the net
reduction in cost associated with these
proposed rules is expected to lead to
lower transportation and shipping costs,
in a competitive market a substantial
portion of those cost savings will be
passed along to consumers, who then
will have additional discretionary
income (how much of the cost is passed
along to consumers depends on market
structure and the relative price
elasticities). The proposed rules are not
expected to have any notable
inflationary or recessionary effect.
The employment effects of
environmental regulation are difficult to
disentangle from other economic
changes and business decisions that
affect employment, over time and across
regions and industries. In light of these
difficulties, we lean on economic theory
to provide a constructive framework for
approaching these assessments and for
better understanding the inherent
complexities in such assessments.
Neoclassical microeconomic theory
describes how profit-maximizing firms
adjust their use of productive inputs in
response to changes in their economic
conditions.757 Berman and Bui (2001,
pp. 274–75) model two components that
drive changes in firm-level labor
demand: Output effects and substitution
effects.758 Regulation can affect the
profit-maximizing quantity of output by
changing the marginal cost of
production. If regulation causes
marginal cost to increase, it will place
upward pressure on output prices,
leading to a decrease in the quantity
demanded, and resulting in a decrease
in production. The output effect
757 See Layard, P.R.G., and A.A. Walters (1978),
Microeconomic Theory (McGraw-Hill, Inc.),
Chapter 9 (Docket ID EPA–HQ–OAR–2014–0827), a
standard microeconomic theory textbook treatment,
for a discussion.
758 Berman, E. and L.T.M. Bui (2001).
‘‘Environmental Regulation and Labor Demand:
Evidence from the South Coast Air Basin.’’ Journal
of Public Economics 79(2): 265–295 (Docket EPA–
HQ–OAR–2014–0827). The authors also discuss a
third component, the impact of regulation on factor
prices, but conclude that this effect is unlikely to
be important for large competitive factor markets,
such as labor and capital. Morgenstern, Pizer and
Shih (Morgenstern, Richard D., William A. Pizer,
and Jhih-Shyang Shih (2002). ‘‘Jobs versus the
Environment: An Industry-Level Perspective.’’
Journal of Environmental Economics and
Management 43: 412–436) use a similar model, but
they break the employment effect into three parts:
(1) A demand effect; (2) a cost effect; and (3) a
factor-shift effect.
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describes how, holding labor intensity
constant, a decrease in production
causes a decrease in labor demand. As
noted by Berman and Bui, although
many assume that regulation increases
marginal cost, it need not be the case.
A regulation could induce a firm to
upgrade to less polluting and more
efficient equipment that lowers
marginal production costs, or it may
induce use of technologies that may
prove popular with buyers or provide
positive network externalities (see
Section IX. A. for discussion of this
effect). In such a case, output could
increase.
The substitution effect describes how,
holding output constant, regulation
affects labor intensity of production.
Although increased environmental
regulation may increase use of pollution
control equipment and energy to operate
that equipment, the impact on labor
demand is ambiguous. For example,
equipment inspection requirements,
specialized waste handling, or pollution
technologies that alter the production
process may affect the number of
workers necessary to produce a unit of
output. Berman and Bui (2001) model
the substitution effect as the effect of
regulation on pollution control
equipment and expenditures required
by the regulation and the corresponding
change in labor intensity of production.
In summary, as output and
substitution effects may be positive or
negative, theory alone cannot predict
the direction of the net effect of
regulation on labor demand at the level
of the regulated firm. Operating within
the bounds of standard economic
theory, empirical estimation of net
employment effects on regulated firms
is possible when data and methods of
sufficient detail and quality are
available. The literature, however,
illustrates difficulties with empirical
estimation. For example, studies
sometimes rely on confidential plantlevel employment data from the U.S.
Census Bureau, possibly combined with
pollution abatement expenditure data
that are too dated to be reliably
informative. In addition, the most
commonly used empirical methods do
not permit estimation of net effects.
The conceptual framework described
thus far focused on regulatory effects on
plant-level decisions within a regulated
industry. Employment impacts at an
individual plant do not necessarily
represent impacts for the sector as a
whole. The approach must be modified
when applied at the industry level.
At the industry level, labor demand is
more responsive if: (1) The price
elasticity of demand for the product is
high, (2) other factors of production can
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be easily substituted for labor, (3) the
supply of other factors is highly elastic,
or (4) labor costs are a large share of
total production costs.759 For example,
if all firms in an industry are faced with
the same regulatory compliance costs
and product demand is inelastic, then
industry output may not change much,
and output of individual firms may
change slightly.760 In this case, the
output effect may be small, while the
substitution effect depends on input
substitutability. Suppose, for example,
that new equipment for fuel efficiency
improvements requires labor to install
and operate. In this case, the
substitution effect may be positive, and
with a small output effect, the total
effect may be positive. As with potential
effects for an individual firm, theory
cannot determine the sign or magnitude
of industry-level regulatory effects on
labor demand. Determining these signs
and magnitudes requires additional
sector-specific empirical study. For
environmental rules, much of the data
needed for these empirical studies is not
publicly available, would require
significant time and resources in order
to access confidential U.S. Census data
for research, and also would not be
necessary for other components of a
typical RIA.
In addition to changes to labor
demand in the regulated industry, net
employment impacts encompass
changes in other related sectors. For
example, the proposed standards are
expected to increase demand for fuelsaving technologies. This increased
demand may increase revenue and
employment in the firms providing
these technologies. At the same time,
the regulated industry is purchasing the
equipment, and these costs may impact
labor demand at regulated firms.
Therefore, it is important to consider the
net effect of compliance actions on
employment across multiple sectors or
industries.
If the U.S. economy is at full
employment, even a large-scale
environmental regulation is unlikely to
have a noticeable impact on aggregate
net employment.761 Instead, labor
would primarily be reallocated from one
759 See Ehrenberg, Ronald G., and Robert S. Smith
(2000), Modern Labor Economics: Theory and
Public Policy (Addison Wesley Longman, Inc.), p.
108.
760 This discussion draws from Berman, E. and
L.T.M. Bui (2001). ‘‘Environmental Regulation and
Labor Demand: Evidence from the South Coast Air
Basin.’’ Journal of Public Economics 79(2): 265–295
(Docket EPA–HQ–OAR–2014–0827), p. 293.
761 Full employment is a conceptual target for the
economy where everyone who wants to work and
is available to do so at prevailing wages is actively
employed. The unemployment rate at full
employment is not zero.
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productive use to another, and net
national employment effects from
environmental regulation would be
small and transitory (e.g., as workers
move from one job to another).762
Affected sectors may experience
transitory effects as workers change
jobs. Some workers may retrain or
relocate in anticipation of new
requirements or require time to search
for new jobs, while shortages in some
sectors or regions could bid up wages to
attract workers. These adjustment costs
can lead to local labor disruptions.
Although the net change in the national
workforce is expected to be small,
localized reductions in employment
may adversely impact individuals and
communities just as localized increases
may have positive impacts.
If the economy is operating at less
than full employment, economic theory
does not clearly indicate the direction or
magnitude of the net impact of
environmental regulation on
employment; it could cause either a
short-run net increase or short-run net
decrease.763 An important research
question is how to accommodate
unemployment as a structural feature in
economic models. This feature may be
important in assessing large-scale
regulatory impacts on employment.764
Environmental regulation may also
affect labor supply. In particular,
pollution and other environmental risks
may impact labor productivity or
employees’ ability to work.765 While the
theoretical framework for analyzing
labor supply effects is analogous to that
for labor demand, it is more difficult to
study empirically. There is a small
emerging literature described in the next
section that uses detailed labor and
environmental data to assess these
impacts.
To summarize, economic theory
provides a framework for analyzing the
impacts of environmental regulation on
employment. The net employment effect
incorporates expected employment
changes (both positive and negative) in
762 Arrow et al. (1996). ‘‘Benefit-Cost Analysis in
Environmental, Health, and Safety Regulation: A
Statement of Principles.’’ American Enterprise
Institute, the Annapolis Center, and Resources for
the Future. See discussion on bottom of p. 6. In
practice, distributional impacts on individual
workers can be important, as discussed later in this
section.
763 Schmalensee, Richard, and Robert N. Stavins.
‘‘A Guide to Economic and Policy Analysis of EPA’s
Transport Rule.’’ White paper commissioned by
Excelon Corporation, March 2011.
764 Klaiber, H. Allen, and V. Kerry Smith (2012).
‘‘Developing General Equilibrium Benefit Analyses
for Social Programs: An Introduction and
Example.’’ Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis 3(2).
765 E.g. Graff Zivin, J., and M. Neidell (2012).
‘‘The Impact of Pollution on Worker Productivity.’’
American Economic Review 102: 3652–3673.
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the regulated sector and elsewhere.
Labor demand impacts for regulated
firms, and also for the regulated
industry, can be decomposed into
output and substitution effects which
may be either negative or positive.
Estimation of net employment effects for
regulated sectors is possible when data
of sufficient detail and quality are
available. Finally, economic theory
suggests that labor supply effects are
also possible. In the next section, we
discuss the empirical literature.
(1) Current State of Knowledge Based on
the Peer-Reviewed Literature
In the labor economics literature there
is an extensive body of peer-reviewed
empirical work analyzing various
aspects of labor demand, relying on the
above theoretical framework.766 This
work focuses primarily on the effects of
employment policies, e.g. labor taxes,
minimum wage, etc.767 In contrast, the
peer-reviewed empirical literature
specifically estimating employment
effects of environmental regulations is
very limited. Several empirical
studies 768 suggest that net employment
impacts may be zero or slightly positive
but small even in the regulated sector.
Other research suggests that more highly
regulated counties may generate fewer
jobs than less regulated ones.769
However, since these latter studies
compare more regulated to less
regulated counties, they overstate the
net national impact of regulation to the
extent that regulation causes plants to
locate in one area of the country rather
than another. List et al. (2003) 770 find
766 See Hamermesh (1993), Labor Demand
(Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press), Chapter
2 (Docket EPA–HQ–OAR–2014–0827) for a detailed
treatment.
767 See Ehrenberg, Ronald G., and Robert S. Smith
(2000), Modern Labor Economics: Theory and
Public Policy (Addison Wesley Longman, Inc.),
Chapter 4 (Docket EPA–HQ–OAR–2014–0827), for a
concise overview.
768 Berman, E. and L.T.M. Bui (2001).
‘‘Environmental Regulation and Labor Demand:
Evidence from the South Coast Air Basin.’’ Journal
of Public Economics 79(2): 265–295 (Docket EPA–
HQ–OAR–2014–0827). Morgenstern, Richard D.,
William A. Pizer, and Jhih-Shyang Shih. ‘‘Jobs
Versus the Environment: An Industry-Level
Perspective.’’ Journal of Environmental Economics
and Management 43 (2002): 412–436; Gray et al.
(2014), and Ferris, Shadbegian and Wolverton
(2014).
769 Greenstone, M. (2002). ‘‘The Impacts of
Environmental Regulations on Industrial Activity:
Evidence from the 1970 and 1977 Clean Air Act
Amendments and the Census of Manufactures,’’
Journal of Political Economy 110(6): 1175–1219
(Docket EPA–HQ–OAR–2014–0827); Walker, Reed.
(2011). ‘‘Environmental Regulation and Labor
Reallocation.’’ American Economic Review: Papers
and Proceedings 101(3): 442–447 (Docket EPA–HQ–
OAR–2014–0827).
770 List, J.A., D.L. Millimet, P.G. Fredriksson, and
W.W. McHone (2003). ‘‘Effects of Environmental
Regulations on Manufacturing Plant Births:
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some evidence that this type of
geographic relocation may be occurring.
Overall, the peer-reviewed literature
does not contain evidence that
environmental regulation has a large
impact on net employment (either
negative or positive) in the long run
across the whole economy.
Analytic challenges make it very
difficult to accurately produce net
employment estimates for the whole
economy that would appropriately
capture the way in which costs,
compliance spending, and
environmental benefits propagate
through the macro-economy.
Quantitative estimates are further
complicated by the fact that
macroeconomic models often have very
little sectoral detail and usually assume
that the economy is at full employment.
EPA is currently in the process of
seeking input from an independent
expert panel on modeling economywide impacts, including employment
effects. For more information, see:
https://federalregister.gov/a/201402471.
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(2) Employment Impacts in the Motor
Vehicle and Parts Manufacturing Sector
This section describes changes in
employment in the motor vehicle,
trailer, and parts (hence, motor vehicle)
manufacturing sectors due to these
proposed rules. We focus on the motor
vehicle manufacturing sector because it
is directly regulated, and because it is
likely to bear a substantial share of
changes in employment due to these
proposed rules. We include discussion
of effects on the parts manufacturing
sector, because the motor vehicle
manufacturing sector can either produce
parts internally or buy them from an
external supplier, and we do not have
estimates of the likely breakdown of
effort between the two sectors.
We follow the theoretical structure of
Berman and Bui 771 of the impacts of
regulation in employment in the
regulated sectors. In Berman and Bui’s
(2001, p. 274–75) theoretical model, as
described above, the change in a firm’s
labor demand arising from a change in
regulation is decomposed into two main
components: Output and substitution
effects.772 As the output and
Evidence from a Propensity Score Matching
Estimator.’’ The Review of Economics and Statistics
85(4): 944–952 (Docket EPA–HQ–OAR–2014–0827).
771 Berman, E. and L.T.M. Bui (2001).
‘‘Environmental Regulation and Labor Demand:
Evidence from the South Coast Air Basin.’’ Journal
of Public Economics 79(2): 265–295 (Docket EPA–
HQ–OAR2014–0827).
772 The authors also discuss a third component,
the impact of regulation on factor prices, but
conclude that this effect is unlikely to be important
for large competitive factor markets, such as labor
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substitution effects may be both
positive, both negative, or some
combination, standard neoclassical
theory alone does not point to a
definitive net effect of regulation on
labor demand at regulated firms.
Following the Berman and Bui
framework for the impacts of regulation
on employment in the regulated sector,
we consider two effects for the motor
vehicle sector: The output effect and the
substitution effect.
(a) The Output Effect
If truck or trailer sales increase, then
more people will be required to
assemble trucks, trailers, and their
components. If truck or trailer sales
decrease, employment associated with
these activities will decrease. The
effects of this proposed rulemaking on
HD vehicle sales thus depend on the
perceived desirability of the new
vehicles. On one hand, this proposed
rulemaking will increase truck and
trailer costs; by itself, this effect would
reduce truck and trailer sales. In
addition, while decreases in truck
performance would also decrease sales,
this program is not expected to have any
negative effect on truck performance.
On the other hand, this proposed
rulemaking will reduce the fuel costs of
operating the trucks; by itself, this effect
would increase truck sales, especially if
potential buyers have an expectation of
higher fuel prices. The agencies have
not made an estimate of the potential
change in truck or trailer sales.
However, as discussed in IX. E., the
agencies have estimated an increase in
vehicle miles traveled (i.e., VMT
rebound) due to the reduced operating
costs of trucks meeting these proposed
standards. Since increased VMT is most
likely to be met with more drivers and
more trucks, our projection of VMT
rebound is suggestive of an increase in
vehicle sales and truck driver
employment (recognizing that these
increases may be partially offset by a
decrease in manufacturing and sales for
equipment of other modes of
transportation such as rail cars or
barges).
(b) The Substitution Effect
The output effect, above, measures the
effect due to new truck and trailer sales
only. The substitution effect includes
and capital. Morgenstern, Pizer and Shih (2002) use
a similar model, but they break the employment
effect into three parts: (1) The demand effect; (2) the
cost effect; and (3) the factor-shift effect. See
Morgenstern, Richard D., William A. Pizer, and
Jhih-Shyang Shih. ‘‘Jobs Versus the Environment:
An Industry-Level Perspective.’’ Journal of
Environmental Economics and Management 43
(2002): 412–436 (Docket EPA–HQ–OAR–2014–
0827).
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the impacts due to the changes in
technologies needed for vehicles to meet
the proposed standards, separate from
the effect on output (that is, as though
holding output constant). This effect
includes both changes in employment
due to incorporation of abatement
technologies and overall changes in the
labor intensity of manufacturing. We
present estimates for this effect to
provide a sense of the order of
magnitude of expected impacts on
employment, which we expect to be
small in the automotive sector, and to
repeat that regulations may have
positive as well as negative effects on
employment.
One way to estimate this effect, given
the cost estimates for complying with
the proposed rule, is to use the ratio of
workers to each $1 million of
expenditures in that sector. The use of
these ratios has both advantages and
limitations. It is often possible to
estimate these ratios for quite specific
sectors of the economy: For instance, it
is possible to estimate the average
number of workers in the motor vehicle
body and trailer manufacturing sector
per $1 million spent in the sector, rather
than use the ratio from another, more
aggregated sector, such as motor vehicle
manufacturing. As a result, it is not
necessary to extrapolate employment
ratios from possibly unrelated sectors.
On the other hand, these estimates are
averages for the sectors, covering all the
activities in those sectors; they may not
be representative of the labor required
when expenditures are required on
specific activities, or when
manufacturing processes change
sufficiently that labor intensity changes.
For instance, the ratio for the motor
vehicle manufacturing sector represents
the ratio for all vehicle manufacturing,
not just for emissions reductions
associated with compliance activities. In
addition, these estimates do not include
changes in sectors that supply these
sectors, such as steel or electronics
producers. They thus may best be
viewed as the effects on employment in
the motor vehicle sector due to the
changes in expenditures in that sector,
rather than as an assessment of all
employment changes due to these
changes in expenditures. In addition,
this approach estimates the effects of
increased expenditures while holding
constant the labor intensity of
manufacturing; it does not take into
account changes in labor intensity due
to changes in the nature of production.
This latter effect could either increase or
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decrease the employment impacts
estimated here.773
Some of the costs of these proposed
rules will be spent directly in the motor
vehicle manufacturing sector, but it is
also likely that some of the costs will be
spent in the motor vehicle body and
trailer and motor vehicle parts
manufacturing sectors. The analysis
here draws on estimates of workers per
$1 million of expenditures for each of
these sectors.
There are several public sources for
estimates of employment per $1 million
expenditures. The U.S. Bureau of Labor
Statistics (BLS) provides its
Employment Requirements Matrix
(ERM),774 which provides direct
estimates of the employment per $1
million in sales of goods in 202 sectors.
The values considered here are for
Motor Vehicle Manufacturing (NAICS
3361), Motor Vehicle Body and Trailer
Manufacturing (NAICS 3362), and
Motor Vehicle Parts Manufacturing
(NAICS 3363) for 2012.
The Census Bureau provides the
Annual Survey of Manufacturers 775
(ASM), a subset of the Economic
Census, based on a sample of
establishments; though the Census itself
is more complete, it is conducted only
every 5 years, while the ASM is annual.
Both include more sectoral detail than
the BLS ERM: For instance, while the
ERM includes the Motor Vehicle
Manufacturing sector, the ASM and
Economic Census have detail at the 6digit NAICS code level (e.g., light truck
and utility vehicle manufacturing).
While the ERM provides direct
estimates of employees/$1 million in
expenditures, the ASM and Economic
Census separately provide number of
employees and value of shipments; the
direct employment estimates here are
the ratio of those values. At this time,
the Economic Census values for 2012
(the most recent year) are not fully
available; we therefore do not report
them, and instead provide the 2011
ASM results (the most recent available).
The values reported are for Motor
Vehicle Manufacturing (NAICS 3361),
Light Truck and Utility Vehicle
Manufacturing (NAICS 336112), Heavy
Duty Truck Manufacturing (NAICS
33612), Motor Vehicle Body and Trailer
manufacturing (NAICS 3362), and Motor
Vehicle Parts Manufacturing (NAICS
3363).
Draft RIA Chapter 9.9 provides the
details on the values of workers per $1
million in expenditures for the sectors
mentioned above. In 2012$, these range
from 0.4 workers per $1 million for light
truck & utility vehicle manufacturing in
the ASM, to 2.8 workers per $1 million
in expenditures for Motor Vehicle Body
and Trailer Manufacturing in the ASM.
These values are then adjusted to
remove the employment effects of
imports through use of a ratio of
domestic production to domestic sales
of 0.78.776
Over time, the amount of labor
needed in the motor vehicle industry
has changed: Automation and improved
methods have led to significant
productivity increases. The BLS ERM,
for instance, provided estimates that, in
1993, 1.33 workers in the Motor Vehicle
Manufacturing sector were needed per
$1 million, but only 0.46 workers by
2012 (in 2005$).777 Because the ERM is
available annually for 1993–2012, we
used these data to estimate productivity
improvements over time. We then used
these productivity estimates to project
the ERM through 2027, and to adjust the
ASM values for 2011. RIA Chapter
9.9.2.2 provides detail on these
calculations.
Finally, to simplify the presentation
and give a range of estimates, we
compared the projected employment
among the 3 sectors for the ERM and
ASM, and we provide only the
maximum and minimum employment
effects estimated for the ERM and the
ASM. We provide the range rather than
a point estimate because of the inherent
difficulties in estimating employment
impacts; the range gives an estimate of
the expected magnitude. The ERM
estimates in the Motor Vehicle Parts
Manufacturing Sector are consistently
the maximum values. The ERM
estimates in the Motor Vehicle Body
and Trailer Manufacturing Sector are
the minimum values for all years but
2018–2019, when the ASM values for
Light Truck and Utility Vehicle
Manufacturing provide the minimum
values.
Section 0 of the Preamble discusses
the vehicle cost estimates developed for
these proposed rules. The final step in
estimating employment impacts is to
multiply costs (in $ millions) by
workers per $1 million in costs, to
estimate employment impacts in the
regulated and parts manufacturing
sectors. Increased costs of vehicles and
parts would, by itself, and holding labor
intensity constant, be expected to
increase employment between 2018 and
2027 from none to a few thousand jobs
each year.
While we estimate employment
impacts, measured in job-years,
beginning with program
implementation, some of these
employment gains may occur earlier as
motor vehicle manufacturers and parts
suppliers hire staff in anticipation of
compliance with the standards. A jobyear is a way to calculate the amount of
work needed to complete a specific task.
For example, a job-year is one year of
work for one person.
TABLE IX–37—EMPLOYMENT EFFECTS DUE TO INCREASED COSTS OF VEHICLES AND PARTS (SUBSTITUTION EFFECT), IN
JOB-YEARS
Costs
(millions of 2012$)
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Year
2018 .............................................................................................
2019 .............................................................................................
773 As noted above, Morgenstern et al. (2002)
separate the effect of holding output constant into
two effects: The cost effect, which holds labor
intensity constant, and the factor shift effect, which
estimates those changes in labor intensity.
774 https://www.bls.gov/emp/ep_data_emp_
requirements.htm.
775 https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/asm/
index.html.
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116
113
776 To estimate the proportion of domestic
production affected by the change in sales, we use
data from Ward’s Automotive Group for total truck
production in the U.S. compared to total truck sales
in the U.S. For the period 2004–2013, the
proportion is 78 percent (Docket EPA–HQ–OAR–
2014–0827), ranging from 68 percent (2009) to 83
percent (2012) over that time.
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Maximum employment
due to
substitution effect
(ERM estimates,
expenditures in the
Body and Trailer
Mfg Sector)
Minimum employment
due to
substitution effect
(ERM estimates,
expenditures in the
Parts Sector a)
0
0
100
100
777 https://www.bls.gov/emp/ep_data_emp_
requirements.htm; this analysis used data for
sectors 81 (Motor Vehicle Manufacturing), 82
(Motor Vehicle Body and Trailer Manufacturing),
and 83 (Motor Vehicle Parts Manufacturing) from
‘‘Chain-weighted (2005 dollars) real domestic
employment requirements tables.’’
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TABLE IX–37—EMPLOYMENT EFFECTS DUE TO INCREASED COSTS OF VEHICLES AND PARTS (SUBSTITUTION EFFECT), IN
JOB-YEARS—Continued
Costs
(millions of 2012$)
Year
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
.............................................................................................
.............................................................................................
.............................................................................................
.............................................................................................
.............................................................................................
.............................................................................................
.............................................................................................
.............................................................................................
Minimum employment
due to
substitution effect
(ERM estimates,
expenditures in the
Parts Sector a)
112
2,173
2,161
2,224
3,455
3,647
3,736
5,309
0
300
300
200
300
200
200
200
Maximum employment
due to
substitution effect
(ERM estimates,
expenditures in the
Body and Trailer
Mfg Sector)
100
2,300
2,200
2,100
3,200
3,200
3,100
4,200
Note:
a For 2018 and 2019, the minimum employment effects are associated with the ASM’s Light Truck and Utility Vehicle Manufacturing sector.
ebenthall on DSK3VPTVN1PROD with MISCELLANEOUS
(c) Summary of Employment Effects in
the Motor Vehicle Sector
The overall effect of these proposed
rules on motor vehicle sector
employment depends on the relative
magnitude of the output effect and the
substitution effect. Because we do not
have quantitative estimates of the
output effect, and only a partial estimate
of the substitution effect, we cannot
reach a quantitative estimate of the
overall employment effects of these
proposed rules on motor vehicle sector
employment or even whether the total
effect will be positive or negative.
The proposed standards are not
expected to provide incentives for
manufacturers to shift employment
between domestic and foreign
production. This is because the
proposed standards will apply to
vehicles sold in the U.S. regardless of
where they are produced. If foreign
manufacturers already have increased
expertise in satisfying the requirements
of the standards, there may be some
initial incentive for foreign production,
but the opportunity for domestic
manufacturers to sell in other markets
might increase. To the extent that the
requirements of these proposed rules
might lead to installation and use of
technologies that other countries may
seek now or in the future, developing
this capacity for domestic production
now may provide some additional
ability to serve those markets.
(3) Employment Impacts in Other
Affected Sectors
(a) Transport and Shipping Sectors
Although not directly regulated by
these proposed rules, employment
effects in the transport and shipping
sector are likely to result from these
regulations. If the overall cost of
shipping a ton of freight decreases
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because of increased fuel efficiency
(taking into account the increase in
upfront purchasing costs), in a perfectly
competitive industry some of these costs
savings, depending on the relative
elasticities of supply and demand, will
be passed along to customers. With
lower prices, demand for shipping
would lead to an increase in demand for
truck shipping services (consistent with
the VMT rebound effect analysis) and
therefore an increase in employment in
the truck shipping sector. In addition, if
the relative cost of shipping freight via
trucks becomes cheaper than shipping
by other modes (e.g., rail or barge), then
employment in the truck transport
industry is likely to increase. If the
trucking industry is more labor
intensive than other modes, we would
expect this effect to lead to an overall
increase in employment in the transport
and shipping sectors.778 779 Such a shift
would, however, be at the expense of
employment in the sectors that are
losing business to trucking. The first
effect—a gain due to lower shipping
costs—is likely to lead to a net increase
in employment. The second effect, due
to mode-shifting, may increase
employment in trucking, but decrease
employment in other shipping sectors
(e.g., rail or barge), with the net effects
dependent on the labor-intensity of the
sectors and the volumes.
(b) Fuel Suppliers
In addition to the effects on the
trucking industry and related truck parts
778 American Transportation Research Institute,
‘‘An Analysis of the Operational Costs of Trucking:
2011 Update.’’ See https://www.atri-online.org/
research/results/Op_Costs_2011_Update_one_page_
summary.pdf.
779 Association of American Railroads, ‘‘All
Inclusive Index and Rail Adjustment Factor.’’ June
3, 2011. See https://www.aar.org/∼/media/aar/
RailCostIndexes/AAR-RCAF-2011-Q3.ashx.
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sector, these proposed rules will result
in reductions in fuel use that lower GHG
emissions. Fuel saving, principally
reductions in liquid fuels such as diesel
and gasoline, will affect employment in
the fuel suppliers industry sectors,
principally the Petroleum Refinery
sector.
Section IX. C. of this Preamble
provides estimates of the effects of these
proposed standards on expected fuel
consumption. While reduced fuel
consumption represents savings for
purchasers of fuel, it also represents a
loss in value of output for the petroleum
refinery industry, which will result in
reduced sectoral employment. Because
this sector is material-intensive, the
employment effect is not expected to be
large.780
(c) Fuel Savings
As a result of this proposed
rulemaking, it is anticipated that
trucking firms will experience fuel
savings. Fuel savings lower the costs of
transportation goods and services. In a
competitive market, some of the fuel
savings that initially accrue to trucking
firms are likely to be passed along as
lower transportation costs that, in turn,
could result in lower prices for final
goods and services. Some of the savings
might also be retained by firms for
investments or for distributions to firm
owners. Again, how much accrues to
customers versus firm owners will
depend on the relative elasticities of
supply and demand. Regardless, the
savings will accrue to some segment of
consumers: Either owners of trucking
firms or the general public, and the
780 In the 2012 BLS ERM cited above, the
Petroleum and Coal Products Manufacturing sector
has a ratio of workers per $1 million of 0.242, lower
than all but two of the 181 sectors with non-zero
employment per $1 million.
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effect will be increased spending by
consumers in other sectors of the
economy, creating jobs in a diverse set
of sectors, including retail and service
industries.
As described in Section IX. C. (2) the
value of fuel savings from this proposed
rulemaking is projected to be $15.1
billion (2012$) in 2027, according to
Table IX–6. If all those savings are
spent, the fuel savings will stimulate
increased employment in the economy
through those expenditures. If the fuel
savings accrue primarily to firm owners,
they may either reinvest the money or
take it as profit. Reinvesting the money
in firm operations could increase
employment directly. If they take the
money as profit, to the extent that these
owners are wealthier than the general
public, they may spend less of the
savings, and the resulting employment
impacts would be smaller than if the
savings went to the public. Thus, while
fuel savings are expected to decrease
employment in the refinery sector, they
are expected to increase employment
through increased consumer
expenditures.
ebenthall on DSK3VPTVN1PROD with MISCELLANEOUS
(4) Summary of Employment Impacts
The primary employment effects of
these rules are expected to be found
throughout several key sectors: Truck
and engine manufacturers, the trucking
industry, truck parts manufacturing,
fuel production, and consumers. These
rules initially takes effect in model year
2018, a time period sufficiently far in
the future that the unemployment rate at
that time is unknowable. In an economy
with full employment, the primary
employment effect of a rulemaking is
likely to be to move employment from
one sector to another, rather than to
increase or decrease employment. For
that reason, we focus our partial
quantitative analysis on employment in
the regulated sector, to examine the
impacts on that sector directly. We
discuss the likely direction of other
impacts in the regulated sector as well
as in other directly related sectors, but
we do not quantify those impacts,
because they are more difficult to
quantify with reasonable accuracy,
particularly so far into the future.
For the regulated sector, we have not
quantified the output effect. The
substitution effect is associated with
potential increased employment from
none to a few thousand jobs per year
between 2018 and 2027, depending on
the share of employment impacts in the
affected sectors (Motor Vehicle
Manufacturing, Motor Vehicle Body and
Trailer Manufacturing, and Motor
Vehicle Parts Manufacturing). These
estimates do not include potential
changes, either greater or less, in labor
intensity of production. As mentioned
above, some of these job gains may
occur earlier as auto manufacturers and
parts suppliers hire staff to prepare to
comply with the standard.
Lower prices for shipping are
expected to lead to an increase in
demand for truck shipping services and,
therefore, an increase in employment in
that sector, though this effect may be
offset somewhat by changes in
employment in other shipping sectors.
Reduced fuel production implies less
employment in the fuel provision
sectors. Finally, any net cost savings
would be expected to be passed along to
some segment of consumers: Either the
general public or the owners of trucking
firms, who are expected then to increase
employment through their expenditures.
Under conditions of full employment,
any changes in employment levels in
the regulated sector due to this program
are mostly expected to be offset by
changes in employment in other sectors.
M. Cost of Ownership and Payback
Analysis
This section examines the economic
impacts of the Phase 2 proposed
standards from the perspective of
buyers, operators, and subsequent
owners of new HD vehicles, first in the
aggregate and then at the level of
individual purchasers of different types
of vehicles. In each case, the analysis
assumes that HD vehicle manufacturers
are able to recover their costs for
improving fuel efficiency—including
direct technology outlays, indirect costs,
and normal profits on any additional
capital investments—by charging higher
prices to HD vehicle buyers. As
summarized below, HDV buyers in the
aggregate would experience substantial
savings in fuel costs that would more
than offset higher initial outlays to buy
more fuel-efficient new vehicles.
Table IX–38 reports aggregate benefits
and costs to buyers and operators of
new HD vehicles for the Preferred
Alternative using Method A. The table
reports economic impacts on buyers
using only the 7 percent discount rate,
since that rate is intended to represent
the opportunity cost of capital that HD
vehicle buyers and users must divert
from other investment opportunities to
purchase more costly vehicles. As it
shows, fuel savings and the other
benefits from increased fuel efficiency—
savings from less frequent refueling and
benefits from additional truck use—far
outweigh the higher costs to buyers of
new HD vehicles. As a consequence,
buyers, operators, and subsequent
owners of HD vehicles subject to the
Phase 2 standards are together projected
to experience large economic gains
under the Preferred Alternative. It
should be noted that, because the
original buyers may not hold the
vehicles for their lifetimes, and because
those who own or operate the vehicles
may not pay for the fuel, these benefits
and costs do not necessarily represent
benefits and costs to identifiable
individuals.
As Table IX–38 shows, the agencies
have estimated the increased costs for
maintenance of the new technologies
that HD vehicle manufacturers would
employ to decrease fuel consumption,
and these costs are included together
with those for purchasing more fuelefficient vehicles. Manufacturers’ efforts
to comply with the Phase 2 standards
could also result in changes to vehicle
performance and capacity for certain
vehicles. For example, reducing the
mass of HD vehicles in order to improve
fuel efficiency could be used to improve
their load-carrying capabilities, while
some engine technologies and
aerodynamic modifications could
reduce payload capacity. The agencies
request comment on possible changes to
vehicle performance and load-carrying
capacity as a result of the proposal along
with supporting information.
TABLE IX–38—MY 2018–2029 LIFETIME AGGREGATE IMPACTS OF THE PREFERRED ALTERNATIVE ON ALL HD VEHICLE
BUYERS AND OPERATORS USING METHOD A
[Billions of 2012$, Discounted at 7%] a
Baseline 1a
Baseline 1b
Vehicle costs ................................................................................................................................................
Maintenance costs .......................................................................................................................................
17.1
0.6
16.8
0.6
Total costs to HD vehicle buyers .........................................................................................................
17.7
17.4
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40483
TABLE IX–38—MY 2018–2029 LIFETIME AGGREGATE IMPACTS OF THE PREFERRED ALTERNATIVE ON ALL HD VEHICLE
BUYERS AND OPERATORS USING METHOD A—Continued
[Billions of 2012$, Discounted at 7%] a
Baseline 1a
Baseline 1b
Fuel savings b ..............................................................................................................................................
(valued at retail prices) ................................................................................................................................
Refueling benefits ........................................................................................................................................
Increased travel benefits .............................................................................................................................
104.6
1.6
8.4
99.1
1.5
8.2
Total benefits to HD vehicle buyers/operators .....................................................................................
Net benefits to HD vehicle buyers/operators c .......................................................................................
114.7
97.0
108.9
91.5
Notes:
a For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
b Fuel savings includes fuel consumed during additional rebound driving.
c Net benefits shown do not include benefits associated with carbon or other co-pollutant emission reductions, accidents/congestion/noise impacts, energy security, etc.
Table IX–38 shows aggregate benefits
and costs to buyers and operators of
new HD vehicles for the Preferred
Alternative using Method B, again for
only the 7 percent discount rate. As it
shows, fuel savings and the other
benefits outweigh the higher prices and
added maintenance costs that buyers
and operators of new HD vehicles pay,
so they are again expected to experience
large economic gains from the Preferred
Alternative. Again, because the original
buyers may not hold the vehicles for
their lifetimes, and because those who
own or operate the vehicles may not pay
for the fuel, these benefits and costs do
not necessarily represent benefits and
costs to identifiable individuals.
TABLE IX–39 MY 2018–2029 LIFETIME AGGREGATE IMPACTS OF THE PREFERRED ALTERNATIVE ON ALL HD VEHICLE
BUYERS AND OPERATORS USING METHOD B
[Billions of 2012$, Discounted at 7%] a
Baseline 1b
Vehicle costs ..................................................................................................................................................................................
Maintenance costs .........................................................................................................................................................................
16.6
0.6
Total costs to HD vehicle buyers ...........................................................................................................................................
Fuel savings b (valued at retail prices) ..........................................................................................................................................
Refueling benefits ..........................................................................................................................................................................
Increased travel benefits ...............................................................................................................................................................
17.2
100.1
1.6
8.2
Total benefits to HD vehicle buyers/operators .......................................................................................................................
Net benefits to HD vehicle buyers/operators c .........................................................................................................................
109.9
92.7
ebenthall on DSK3VPTVN1PROD with MISCELLANEOUS
Notes:
a For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
b Fuel savings includes fuel consumed during additional rebound driving.
c Net benefits shown do not include benefits associated with carbon or other co-pollutant emission reductions, accidents/congestion/noise impacts, energy security, etc.
It is also useful to examine the cost of
purchasing and owning a new vehicle
that complies with the Phase 2
standards and its payback period—the
point at which cumulative savings from
lower fuel expenditures outpace
increased vehicle costs. For example, a
new MY2027 tractor is estimated to cost
roughly $11,684 more (on average, or
roughly 12 percent of a typical $100,000
reference case tractor) due to the
addition of new GHG reducing/fuel
consumption improving technology.
This new technology would result in
lower fuel consumption and, therefore,
reduced fuel expenditures. But how
many months or years would pass
before the reduced fuel expenditures
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would surpass the increased upfront
costs?
Table IX–40 presents the discounted
annual increased vehicle costs and fuel
savings associated with owning a new
MY2027 HD pickup or van using both
3 percent and 7 percent discount rates.
Table IX–41 and Table IX–42 show the
same information for a MY2027
vocational vehicle and a tractor/trailer,
respectively. These comparisons
include sales taxes, excise taxes (for
vocational and tractor/trailer) and
increased insurance expenditures on the
higher value vehicles, as well as
maintenance costs associated with
replacement of lower rolling resistance
tires throughout the lifetimes of affected
vehicles. Importantly, the values behind
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the tables in this payback analysis do
not include rebound miles driven and/
or rebound gallons consumed. Instead,
the tables use reference case miles
driven combined with policy case fuel
consumption. We detail these input
metrics in Chapter 7 of the draft RIA.
The fuel expenditure column uses
retail fuel prices specific to gasoline and
diesel fuel as projected in AEO2014.781
This payback analysis does not include
other impacts, such as reduced refueling
events, the value of driving potential
rebound miles, or noise, congestion and
accidents. We use retail fuel prices and
781 U.S. Energy Information Administration,
Annual Energy Outlook 2014, Early Release; Report
Number DOE/EIA–0383ER(2014), December 16,
2013.
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exclude these other private and social
impacts because the analysis is intended
to focus on those factors that are most
important to buyers when considering a
new vehicle purchase, and to include
only those factors that have clear dollar
impacts on HD vehicle buyers.
As shown, payback would occur in
the 3rd year of ownership for HD
pickups and vans (the first year where
cumulative net costs turn negative), in
the 5th year for vocational vehicles (at
a 3 percent discount rate, 6th year at a
7 percent discount rate) and early in the
2nd year for tractor/trailers. Note that
each table reflects the average vehicle
and reflects proper weighting of fuel
consumption/costs (gasoline vs. diesel).
We request comment and supporting
data on all aspects of our payback
analysis.
TABLE IX–40—DISCOUNTED ANNUAL INCREMENTAL EXPENDITURES FOR A MY 2027 HD PICKUP OR VAN USING METHOD
B AND RELATIVE TO THE LESS DYNAMIC BASELINE
[2012$] a
3% Discount rate
7% Discount rate
Age in years
Vehicle b
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
.......................................
.......................................
.......................................
.......................................
.......................................
.......................................
.......................................
.......................................
Maint c
$1,587
25
23
22
20
19
18
16
Cumulative
Net
Fuel d
¥$759
¥734
¥714
¥693
¥651
¥611
¥571
¥536
$4
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
$832
126
¥561
¥1,229
¥1,857
¥2,446
¥2,997
¥3,514
Vehicle b
Maint c
$1,558
23
21
19
17
15
14
12
Fuel d
$3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
¥$745
¥694
¥649
¥606
¥549
¥496
¥446
¥403
Cumulative
net
$817
150
¥476
¥1,060
¥1,590
¥2,067
¥2,497
¥2,886
Notes:
a For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
b Includes new technology costs, insurance costs and sales taxes.
c Maintenance costs.
d Uses AEO2014 retail fuel prices.
TABLE IX–41—DISCOUNTED ANNUAL INCREMENTAL EXPENDITURES FOR A MY 2027 VOCATIONAL VEHICLE USING
METHOD B AND RELATIVE TO THE LESS DYNAMIC BASELINE
[2012$] a
3% Discount rate
7% Discount rate
Age in years
Vehicle b
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
.......................................
.......................................
.......................................
.......................................
.......................................
.......................................
.......................................
.......................................
Maint c
$3,998
63
59
55
51
48
45
42
Cumulative
Net
Fuel d
¥$965
¥937
¥914
¥891
¥829
¥771
¥716
¥667
$10
9
9
9
8
7
7
6
$3,043
2,178
1,331
504
¥265
¥981
¥1,645
¥2,264
Vehicle b
Maint c
$3,924
59
53
48
43
39
35
31
$10
9
8
8
7
6
5
5
Fuel d
¥$947
¥885
¥832
¥780
¥699
¥625
¥559
¥501
Cumulative
net
$2,987
2,169
1,399
675
27
¥554
¥1,073
¥1,538
Notes:
a For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
b Includes new technology costs, insurance costs, excise and sales taxes.
c Maintenance costs.
d Uses AEO2014 retail fuel prices.
TABLE IX–42—DISCOUNTED ANNUAL INCREMENTAL EXPENDITURES FOR A MY 2027 TRACTOR/TRAILER USING METHOD B
AND RELATIVE TO THE LESS DYNAMIC BASELINE
[2012$] a
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3% Discount rate
Age in years
Vehicle b
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
.......................................
.......................................
.......................................
.......................................
.......................................
.......................................
.......................................
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Maint c
$15,194
238
223
209
195
182
170
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$48
46
44
42
39
35
32
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¥$14,649
¥14,204
¥13,809
¥13,416
¥12,391
¥11,411
¥10,511
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7% Discount rate
Cumulative
Net
$593
¥13,327
¥26,869
¥40,034
¥52,191
¥63,385
¥73,694
Sfmt 4702
Vehicle b
Maint c
$14,914
225
203
183
164
148
133
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$47
43
40
37
33
29
25
13JYP2
Fuel d
¥$14,379
¥13,421
¥12,561
¥11,746
¥10,443
¥9,258
¥8,209
Cumulative
Net
$582
¥12,571
¥24,889
¥36,415
¥46,661
¥55,743
¥63,794
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TABLE IX–42—DISCOUNTED ANNUAL INCREMENTAL EXPENDITURES FOR A MY 2027 TRACTOR/TRAILER USING METHOD B
AND RELATIVE TO THE LESS DYNAMIC BASELINE—Continued
[2012$] a
3% Discount rate
Age in years
Vehicle b
8 .......................................
Maint c
158
Fuel d
¥9,704
29
7% Discount rate
Cumulative
Net
Vehicle b
¥83,211
Maint c
119
Fuel d
22
¥7,295
Cumulative
Net
¥70,949
Notes:
a For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
b Includes new technology costs, insurance costs, excise and sales taxes.
c Maintenance costs.
d Uses AEO2014 retail fuel prices.
N. Safety Impacts
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(1) Summary of Supporting HD Vehicle
Safety Research
NHTSA and EPA considered the
potential safety impact of technologies
that improve HD vehicle fuel efficiency
and GHG emissions as part of the
assessment of regulatory alternatives.
The safety assessment of the
technologies in this proposal was
informed by two NAS reports, an
analysis of safety effects of HD pickups
and vans using estimates from the DOT
report on the effect of mass reduction
and vehicle size on safety, and agencysponsored safety testing and research. A
summary of the literature and work
considered by the agencies follows.
(2) National Academy of Sciences HD
Phase 1 and Phase 2 Reports
As required by EISA, the National
Research Council has conducted two
studies of the technologies and
approaches for reducing the fuel
consumption of medium- and heavyduty vehicles. The first was documented
in a report issued in 2010,
‘‘Technologies and Approaches to
Reducing the Fuel Consumption of
Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicles’’
(‘‘NAS Report’’). The second was
documented in a report issued in 2014,
‘‘Reducing the Fuel Consumption and
Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Mediumand Heavy-Duty Vehicles, Phase TwoFirst Report’’ (‘‘NAS HD Phase 2 First
Report’’). While the reports primarily
focused on reducing vehicle fuel
consumption and emissions through
technology application, and examined
potential regulatory frameworks, both
reports additionally contain findings
and recommendations on safety. In
developing this proposal, the agencies
carefully considered both of the reports’
findings related to safety. Some of the
reports’ key findings related to safety
follow.
NAS commented that idle reduction
strategies in actual can be sophisticated
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to provide for the safety of the driver in
hot and cold weather.782 The agencies
considered this comment in our
approach for idle reduction technologies
and allow override provisions, as
discussed in Section III. Override is
allowed if the external ambient
temperature reaches a level below
which or above which the cabin
temperature cannot be maintained
within reasonable heat or cold exposure
threshold limit values for the health and
safety of the operator (not merely
comfort). NAS commented extensively
on the recent emergence of natural gas
(NG) as a viable technology option for
commercial vehicles, but alluded to the
existence of uncertainties regarding its
safety. The committee found that while
the public crash databases do not
contain information on vehicle fuel
type, the existing information indicates
that the crash-related safety risk for NG
storage on vehicles does not appear to
be appreciably different from diesel fuel
risks. The committee also found that
while there are two existing SAErecommended practice standards for
NG-powered HD vehicles, the industry
could benefit from best practice
directives to minimize crash risks for
NG fuel tanks, such as on shielding to
prevent punctures during crashes. As a
final point, NAS stated that
manufacturers and operators have a
great incentive to prevent possible NG
leakage from a vehicle fuel system
because it would be a significant safety
concern and reduce vehicle range. No
recommendations were made for
additional Federal safety regulations for
these vehicles. In response, the agencies
have reviewed and discuss the existing
NG vehicle standards and best practices
cited by NAS in Section XI.
In the NAS Committee’s Phase 1
report, the Committee commented that
aerodynamic fairings detaching from
trucks on the road was a potential safety
issue. However, the Phase 2 interim
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p. 33.
Frm 00349
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report stated that ‘‘Anecdotal
information gained during the
observations of on-road trailers
indicates a few skirts badly damaged or
missing from one side. The skirt
manufacturers report no safety concerns
(such as side skirts falling off) and little
maintenance needed.’’
The NAS report also identified the
link between tire inflation and
condition and vehicle stopping distance
and handling, which impacts overall
safety. The committee found that tire
pressure monitoring systems and
automatic tire inflation systems are
being adopted by fleets at an increasing
rate. However, the committee noted that
there are no standards for performance,
display, and system validation. The
committee recommended that NHTSA
issue a white paper on the minimum
performance of tire pressure systems
from a safety perspective.
The agencies considered the safety
findings in both NAS reports in
developing this proposal and conducted
additional research on safety to further
examine information and findings of the
reports.
(3) DOT CAFE Model HD Pickup and
Van Safety Analysis
This analysis considered the potential
effects on crash safety of the
technologies manufacturers may apply
to their HD pickups and vans to meet
each of the regulatory alternatives
evaluated. NHTSA research has shown
that vehicle mass reduction affects
overall societal fatalities associated with
crashes and, most relevant to this
proposal, that mass reduction in heavier
light- and medium-duty vehicles has an
overall beneficial effect on societal
fatalities. Reducing the mass of a
heavier vehicle involved in a crash with
another vehicle(s) makes it less likely
that there will be fatalities among the
occupants of the other vehicles. In
addition to the effects of mass
reduction, the analysis anticipates that
the proposed standards, by reducing the
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cost of driving HD pickups and vans,
would lead to increased travel by these
vehicles and, therefore, more crashes
involving these vehicles. The Method A
analysis considers overall impacts from
both of these factors, using a
methodology similar to NHTSA’s
analyses for the MYs 2017–2025 CAFE
and GHG emission standards.
The Method A analysis includes
estimates of the extent to which HD
pickups and vans produced during MYs
2014–2030 may be involved in fatal
crashes, considering the mass, survival,
and mileage accumulation of these
vehicles, taking into account changes in
mass and mileage accumulation under
each regulatory alternative. These
calculations make use of the same
coefficients applied to light trucks in the
MYs 2017–2025 CAFE rulemaking
analysis. As discussed above, vehicle
miles traveled may increase due to the
fuel economy rebound effect, resulting
from improvements in vehicle fuel
efficiency and cost of fuel, as well as the
assumed future growth in average
vehicle use. Increases in total lifetime
mileage increase exposure to vehicle
crashes, including those that result in
fatalities. Consequently, the modeling
system computes total fatalities
attributed to vehicle use for vehicles of
a given model year based on safety class
and weight threshold. These
calculations also include a term that
accounts for the fact that vehicles
involved in future crashes will be
certified to more stringent safety
standards than those involved with past
crashes upon which the base rates of
involvement in fatal crashes were
estimated. Since the use of mass
reducing technology is present within
the model, safety impacts may also be
observed whenever a vehicle’s base
weight decreases. Thus, in addition to
computing total fatalities related to
vehicle use, the modeling system also
estimates changes in fatalities due to
reduction in a vehicle’s curb weight.
The total fatalities attributed to
vehicle use and vehicle weight change
for vehicles of a given model year are
then summed. Lastly, total fatalities
occurring within the industry in a given
model year are accumulated across all
vehicles. In addition to using inputs to
estimate the future involvement of
modeled vehicles in crashes involving
fatalities, the model also applies inputs
defining other accident-related
externalities estimated on a dollar per
mile basis. For vehicles above 4,594
lbs—i.e., the majority of the HD pickup
and van fleet—mass reduction is
estimated to reduce the net incidence of
highway fatalities by 0.34 percent per
100 lbs of removed curb weight. For the
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few HD pickups and vans below 4,594
lbs, mass reduction is estimated to
increase the net incidence of highway
fatalities by 0.52 percent per 100 lbs.
Because there are many more HD
pickups and vans above 4,594 lbs than
below 4,594 lbs, the overall effect of
mass reduction in the segment is
estimated to reduce the incidence of
highway fatalities. The estimated
increase in vehicle miles traveled due to
the fuel economy rebound effect is
estimated to increase exposure to
vehicle crashes and offset these
reductions.
(4) Volpe Research on MD/HD Fuel
Efficiency Technologies
The 2010 National Research Council
report ‘‘Technologies and Approaches to
Reducing the Fuel Consumption of
Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicles’’
recommended that NHTSA perform a
thorough safety analysis to identify and
evaluate potential safety issues with fuel
efficiency-improving technologies. The
Department of Transportation Volpe
Center’s 2015 report titled ‘‘Review and
Analysis of Potential Safety Impacts and
Regulatory Barriers to Fuel Efficiency
Technologies and Alternative Fuels in
Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicles’’
summarizes research and analysis
findings on potential safety issues
associated with both the diverse
alternative fuels (natural gas-CNG and
LNG, propane, biodiesel, and power
train electrification), and the specific FE
technologies recently adopted by the
MD/HDV fleets.783 These include
Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS)
and telematics, speed limiters, idle
reduction devices, tire technologies
(single-wide tires, and tire pressure
monitoring systems-TPMS and
Automated Tire Inflation SystemsATIS), aerodynamic components,
vehicle light-weighting materials, and
Long Combination Vehicles (LCVs).
Chapter 1 provides an overview of the
study’s rationale, background, and key
objective, namely, to identify the
technical and operational/behavioral
safety benefits and disbenefits of MD/
HDVs equipped with FE technologies
and using emerging alternative fuels
(AFs). Recent MD/HDV national fleet
crash safety statistical averages are also
provided for context, although no
information exists in crash reports
relating to specific vehicle FE
technologies and fuels. (NHTSA/FARS
783 Brecher, A., Epstein, A.K., & Breck, A. (2015,
June). Review and analysis of potential safety
impacts of and regulatory barriers to fuel efficiency
technologies and alternative fuels in medium- and
heavy-duty vehicles. (Report No. DOT HS 812 159).
Washington, DC: National Highway Traffic Safety
Administration.
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and FMCSA/CSA databases do not
include detailed information on vehicle
fuel economy technologies, since the
state crash report forms are not coded
down to an individual fuel economy
technology level).
Chapters 2 and 3 are organized by
clusters of functionally-related FE
technologies for vehicles and trailers
(e.g., tire systems, ITS, light-weighting
materials, and aerodynamic systems)
and alternative fuels, which are
described and their respective
associated potential safety issues are
discussed. Chapter 2 summarizes the
findings from a comprehensive review
of available technical and trade
literature and Internet sources regarding
the benefits, potential safety hazards,
and the applicable safety regulations
and standards for deployed FE
technologies and alternative fuels.
Chapter 2 safety-relevant fuel-specific
findings include:
• Both CNG- and LNG-powered
vehicles present potential hazards, and
call for well-known engineering and
process controls to assure safe
operability and crashworthiness.
However, based on the reported
incident rates of NGVs and the
experiences of adopting fleets, it
appears that NGVs can be operated at
least as safely as diesel MD/HDVs.
• There are no safety
contraindications to the large scale fleet
adoption of CNG or LNG fueled heavy
duty trucks and buses, and there is
ample experience with the safe
operation of large public transit fleets.
Voluntary industry standards and best
practices suffice for safety assurance,
though improved training of CMV
operators and maintenance staff in
natural gas safety of equipment and
operating procedures is needed.
• Observing CNG and LNG fuel
system and maintenance facility
standards, coupled with sound design,
manufacture, and inspection of natural
gas storage tanks will further reduce the
potential for leaks, tank ruptures, fires,
and explosions.
• Biodiesel blends used as drop-in
fuels have presented some operational
safety concerns dependent on blending
fraction, such as material compatibility,
bio-fouling sludge accumulation, or
cold-weather gelling. However, best
practices for biodiesel storage, and
improved gaskets and seals that are
biodiesel resistant, combined with
regular maintenance and leak inspection
schedules for the fuel lines and
components enable the safe use of
biodiesel in newer MD/HDVs.
• Propane (LPG, or autogas) presents
well-known hazards including ignition
(due to leaks or crash) that are
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preventable by using Overfill Prevention
Devices (OPDs), which supplement the
automatic stop-fill system on the fueling
station side, and pressure release
devices (PRDs). Established best
practices and safety codes (e.g., NFPA)
have proven that propane fueled MD/
HDVs can be as operationally safe as the
conventionally-fueled counterparts.
• As the market penetration of hybrid
and electric drivetrain accelerates, and
as the capacity and reliability of lithium
ion batteries used in Rechargeable
Energy Storage Systems (RESS)
improve, associated potential safety
hazards (e.g., electrocution from
stranded energy, thermal runaway
leading to battery fire) have become well
understood, preventable, and
manageable. Existing and emerging
industry technical and safety voluntary
standards, applicable NHTSA
regulations and guidance, and the
growing experience with the operation
of hybrid and electric MD/HDVs will
enable the safe operation and large-scale
adoption of safer and more efficient
power-train electrification technologies.
The safety findings from literature
review pertaining to the specific FE
technologies implemented to date in the
MD/HDV fleet include:
• Telematics—integrating on-board
sensors, video, and audio alerts for MD/
HDV drivers—offer potential
improvements in both driver safety
performance and fuel efficiency. Both
camera and non-camera based
telematics setups are currently
integrated with available crash
avoidance systems (such as ESC, RSC,
LDWS, etc.) and appear to be well
accepted by MD/HDV fleet drivers.
• Both experience abroad and the
cited US studies of trucks equipped
with active speed limiters indicated a
safety benefit, as measured by up to 50
percent reduced crash rates, in addition
to fuel savings and other benefits, with
good CMV driver acceptance. Any
negative aspects were small and
avoidable if all the speed limitation
devices were set to the same speed, so
there would be less need for overtaking
at highway speeds.
• No literature reports of adverse
safety impacts were found regarding
implementation of on-board idlereduction technologies in MD/HDVs
(such as automatic start-stop, directfired heaters, and APUs).
• There was no clear consensus from
the literature regarding the relative
crash rates and highway safety impacts
of LCVs, due to lack of sufficient data
and controls and inconsistent study
methodologies. Recent safety
evaluations of LCVs and ongoing MAP–
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21 mandated studies will clarify and
quantify this issue.
• Tire technologies for FE (including
ATIS, TPMS, LRR and single-wide tires)
literature raised potential safety
concerns regarding lower stability or
loss of control, e.g., when tire pressure
is uneven or a single wide tire blows out
on the highway. However, systems such
as automated tire monitoring systems
and stability enhancing electronic
systems (ABS, ESC, RSC) may
compensate and mitigate any adverse
safety impacts.
• Aerodynamic technologies that
offer significant fuel savings have raised
potential concerns about vehicle
damage or injury in case of detached
fairings or skirts, although there were no
documented incidents of this type in the
literature.
• Some light weighting materials may
pose some fire safety and
crashworthiness hazards, depending on
their performance in structural or other
vehicle subsystem applications (chassis,
power-train, crash box or safety cage).
Some composites (fiberglass, plastics,
CFRC, foams) may become brittle on
impact or due to weathering from UV
exposure or extreme cold. Industry has
developed advanced, high performance
lightweight material options tailored to
their automotive applications, e.g.,
thermoplastics resistant to UV and
weathering. No examples of such
lightweight material failures on MD/
HDVs were identified in the literature.
Chapter 3 provides complementary
inputs on the potential safety issues
associated with FE technologies and
alternative fuels obtained from Subject
Matter Experts (SMEs). The broad crosssection of SMEs consulted had
experience with the operation of
‘‘green’’ truck and bus fleets, were
Federal program managers, or were
industry developers of FE systems for
MD/HDVs. Safety concerns raised by the
SMEs can be prevented or mitigated by
complying with applicable regulations
and safety standards and best practices,
and are being addressed by evolving
technologies, such as electronic
collision prevention devices. Although
SMEs raised some safety concerns, their
experience indicates that system- or
fuel-specific hazards can be prevented
or mitigated by observing applicable
industry standards, and by training
managers, operators and maintenance
staff in safety best practices. Specific
safety concerns raised by SMEs based
on their experience included:
• Alternative fuels did not raise major
safety concerns, but generally required
better education and training of staff
and operators. There was a concern
expressed regarding high pressure (4000
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40487
psi) CNG cylinders that could
potentially explode in a crash scenario
or if otherwise ruptured. However, aging
CNG fuel tank safety can be assured by
enforcing regulations such as FMVSS
No. 304, and by periodic inspection and
end-of-life disposal and replacement. A
propane truck fleet manager stated that
the fuel was as safe as or safer than
gasoline, and reported no safety issues
with the company’s propane, nor with
hybrid gasoline-electric trucks. OEMs of
drivetrain hybridization and
electrification systems, including
advanced Lithium Ion batteries for
RESS, indicated that they undergo
multiple safety tests and are designed
with fail-safes for various misuse and
abuse scenarios. Integration of hybrid
components downstream by
bodybuilders in retrofits, as opposed to
new vehicles, was deemed a potential
safety risk. Another potential safety
concern raised was the uncertain battery
lifetime due to variability of climate,
duty-cycles, and aging. Without state-ofcharge indicators, this could
conceivably leave vehicles
underpowered or stranded if the battery
degrades and is not serviced or replaced
in a timely manner.
• ITS and telematics raised no safety
concerns; on the contrary, fleet
managers stated that ‘‘efficient drivers
are safer drivers.’’ Monitoring and
recording of driver behavior, combined
with coaching, appeared to reduce
distracted and aggressive driving and
provided significant FE and safety
benefits.
• A wide-base single tire safety
concern was the decrease in tire
redundancy in case of a tire blowout at
highway speeds. For LRRs, a concern
was that they could negatively affect
truck stopping distance and stability
control.
• A speed-limiter safety concern was
related to scenarios when such trucks
pass other vehicles on the highway
instead of staying in the right-hand lane
behind other vehicles. By combining
speed limiters with driver training
programs, overall truck safety could
actually improve, as shown by
international practice.
• Aerodynamic systems’ safety
performance to date was satisfactory,
with no instances of on-road detaching.
However, covering underside or other
components with aerodynamic fairings
can make them harder to inspect, such
as worn lugs, CNG relief valve shrouds,
wheel covers, and certain fairings.
Drivers and inspectors need to be able
to see through wheel covers and to be
able to access lug nuts through them.
These covers must also be durable to
withstand frequent road abuse.
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• For lightweighting materials, the
safety concern raised was lower
crashworthiness (debonding or brittle
fracture on impact) and the potential for
decreased survivability in vehicle fires
depending on the specific material
choice and its application.
The key finding from the literature
review and SME interviews is that there
appear to be no major safety hazards
preventing the adoption of FE
technologies, or the increased use of
alternative fuels and vehicle
electrification. In view of the scarcity of
hard data currently available on actual
highway crashes that can be directly or
causally attributed to adoption of FE
technologies and/or alternative fuels by
MD/HDVs, and the limited experience
with commercial truck and transit bus
fleets operations equipped with these
technologies, it was not possible to
perform a quantitative, probabilistic risk
assessment, or even a semi-quantitative
preliminary hazard analysis (PHA).
Chapter 4 employs a deterministic
scenario-based hazard analysis of
potential crash or other safety concerns
identified from the literature review or
raised by subject matter experts (SMEs)
interviewed (e.g., interfaces with
charging or refueling infrastructure). For
each specific hazard scenario discussed,
the recommended prevention or
mitigation options, including
compliance with applicable NHTSA or
FMCSA regulations, and voluntary
industry standards and best practices
are identified, along with FE technology
or fuel-specific operator training. SMEs
safety concerns identified in Sec 3.3
were complemented with actual
incidents, and developed into the
hazard scenarios analyzed in Chapter 4.
The scenario-based deterministic
hazard analysis reflected not only the
literature findings and SMEs’ safety
concerns, but also real truck or bus
mishaps that have occurred in the past.
Key hazard analysis scenarios included:
CNG-fueled truck and bus vehicle fires
or explosions due to tank rupture, when
pressurized fuel tanks were degraded
due to aging or when PRDs failed; LNG
truck crashes leading to fires, or LNG
refueling-related mishaps; the
flammability or brittle fracture issues
related to lightweighting materials in
crashes; reduced safety performance for
either LRR or wide-base tires; highway
pile-ups when LCVs attempt to pass at
highway speeds; aerodynamic
components detaching while the vehicle
traveled on a busy highway or urban
roadway; and fires resulting in
overheated lithium ion batteries in
electric or hybrid buses. These
hypothetical worst case scenarios
appear to be preventable or able to be
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mitigated by observing safety
regulations and voluntary standards, or
with engineering and operational best
practices.
Chapter 5 reviews and discusses the
existing federal and state regulatory
framework for safely operating MD/
HDVs equipped with FE technologies or
powered by alternative fuels. The
review identifies potential regulatory
barriers to their large-scale deployment
in the national fleet that could delay
achievement of desired fuel
consumption and environmental
benefits, while ensuring equal or better
safety performance.
Chapter 6 summarizes the major
findings and recommendations of this
preliminary safety analysis of fuel
efficiency technologies and alternative
fuels adopted by MD/HDVs. The
scenario-based hazard analysis, based
on the literature review and experts’
inputs, indicates that MD/HDVs
equipped with advanced FE
technologies and/or using alternative
fuels have manageable potentially
adverse safety impacts. The findings
suggest that the potential safety hazards
identified during operation,
maintenance, and crash scenarios can be
prevented or mitigated by complying
with safety regulations and voluntary
standards and industry best practices.
The study also did not identify any
major regulatory barriers to rapid
adoption of FE technologies and
alternative fuels by the MD/HDV fleet.
(5) Oak Ridge National Laboratory
(ORNL) Research on Low Rolling
Resistance Truck Tires
DOT’s Federal Motor Carrier Safety
Administration and NHTSA sponsored
a test program conducted by Oak Ridge
National Laboratory to explore the
effects of tire rolling resistance levels on
Class 8 tractor-trailer stopping distance
performance over a range of loading and
surface conditions. The objective was to
determine whether there is a
relationship between tire rolling
resistance and stopping distance for
vehicles of this type. The overall results
of this research suggest that tire rolling
resistance is not a reliable indicator of
Class 8 tractor-trailer stopping distance.
The correlation coefficients (R2 values)
for linear regressions of wet and dry
stopping distance versus overall vehicle
rolling resistance values did not meet
the minimum threshold for statistical
significance for any of the test
conditions. Correlation between CRR
and stopping distance was found to be
negligible for the dry tests for both
loading conditions. While correlation
was higher for the wet testing (showing
a slight trend in which lower CRRs
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correspond to longer stopping
distances), it still did not meet the
minimum threshold for statistical
significance. In terms of compliance
with Federal safety standards, it was
found that the stopping distance
performance of the vehicle with the four
tire sets studied in this research (with
estimated tractor CRRs which varied by
33 percent), were well under the
FMVSS No. 121 stopping distance
requirements.
(6) Additional Safety Considerations
The agencies’ considered the Organic
Rankine Cycle waste heat recovery
(WHR) as a fuel saving technology in the
rulemaking timeframe. The basic
approach of these systems is to use
engine waste heat from multiple sources
to evaporate a working fluid through a
heat exchanger, which is then passed
through a turbine or equivalent
expander to create mechanical or
electrical power. The working fluid is
then condensed as it passes through a
heat exchanger and returns to back to
the fluid tank, and pulled back to the
flow circuit through a pump to continue
the cycle. Despite the promising
performance of pre-prototype WHR
systems, manufacturers have not yet
arrived at a consensus on which
working fluid(s) to be used in WHR
systems to balance concerns regarding
performance, global warming potential
(GWP), and safety. Current working
fluids have a high GWP (conventional
refrigerant), are expensive (low GWP
refrigerant), are hazardous (ammonia,
etc.), are flammable (ethanol/methanol),
or can freeze (water). One of the
challenges is determining how to seal
the working fluid properly under the
vacuum condition with high
temperature to avoid safety issues for
flammable/hazardous working fluids.
Because of these challenges, choosing a
working fluid will be an important
factor for system safety, efficiency, and
overall production viability. The
agencies believe manufacturers will
require additional time and
development effort to assure that a
working fluid that is both appropriate,
given the noted challenges, and has a
low GWP for use in waste heat recovery
systems. Based on this and other factors,
the analysis for the Preferred Alternative
assumes that WHR would not achieve a
significant market penetration for diesel
tractor engines (i.e., greater than 5
percent) until 2027, which would
provide time for these considerations to
be addressed. The agencies assume no
use of this technology in the HD
pickups and vans and vocational
vehicle segments.
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(7) The Agencies’ Assessment of
Potential Safety Impacts
NHTSA and EPA considered the
potential safety impact of technologies
that improve HD vehicle fuel efficiency
and GHG emissions as part of the
assessment of regulatory alternatives.
The safety assessment of the
technologies in this proposal was
informed by two NAS reports, an
analysis of safety effects of HD pickups
and vans using estimates from the DOT
report on the effect of mass reduction
and vehicle size on safety, and agencysponsored safety testing and research.
The agencies considered safety from the
perspective of both direct effects and
indirect effects.
In terms of direct effects on vehicle
safety, research from NAS and Volpe,
and direct testing of technologies like
the ORNL tire work, indicate that there
are no major safety hazards associated
with the adoption of technologies that
improve HD vehicle fuel efficiency and
GHG emissions or the increased use of
alternative fuels and vehicle
electrification. The findings suggest that
the potential safety hazards identified
during operation, maintenance, and
crash scenarios can be prevented or
mitigated by complying with safety
regulations and voluntary standards and
industry best practices. Tire testing
showed tire rolling resistance did not
impact of Class 8 tractor-trailer stopping
distance for the tires tested. Also,
because the majority of HD pickup and
van fleet are above 4,594 lbs, the vehicle
mass reduction in HD pickup and vans
is estimated to reduce the net incidence
of highway fatalities. Taken together,
these studies suggest that the fuel
efficiency improving technologies
assessed in the studies can be
implemented with no degradation in
overall safety.
However, analysis anticipates that the
indirect effect of the proposed
standards, by reducing the operating
costs, would lead to increased travel by
tractor-trailers and HD pickups and vans
and, therefore, more crashes involving
these vehicles.
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X. Analysis of the Alternatives
As discussed throughout this
preamble, in developing this proposal
the agencies considered a number of
regulatory alternatives that could result
in potentially fewer or greater GHG
emission and fuel consumption
reductions than the program we are
proposing. This section summarizes the
alternatives we considered and presents
estimates of technology costs, CO2
reductions, fuel savings, and other costs
and benefits associated with each
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alternative. The agencies request
comment on each of these alternatives,
as well as other potential levels of
stringency and implementation timing.
Note that since the impacts of these
alternatives differ among the various
heavy-duty vehicle categories,
commenters are encouraged to address
the alternatives separately for each
vehicle category.
In developing alternatives, both
agencies must consider a range of
stringency. NHTSA must consider
EISA’s requirement for the MD/HD fuel
efficiency program. In particular, 49
U.S.C. 32902(k)(2) and (3) contain the
following three requirements specific to
the MD/HD vehicle fuel efficiency
improvement program: (1) The program
must be ‘‘designed to achieve the
maximum feasible improvement’’; (2)
the various required aspects of the
program must be appropriate, costeffective, and technologically feasible
for MD/HD vehicles; and (3) the
standards adopted under the program
must provide not less than four model
years of lead time and three model years
of regulatory stability. In considering
these various requirements, NHTSA will
also account for relevant environmental
and safety considerations.
As explained in the Phase 1 rule,
NHTSA has broad discretion in
balancing the above factors in
determining the improvement that the
manufacturers can achieve. The fact that
the factors may often be conflicting
gives NHTSA significant discretion to
decide what weight to give each of the
competing policies and concerns and
then determine how to balance them—
as long as NHTSA’s balancing does not
undermine the fundamental purpose of
the EISA: Energy conservation, and as
long as that balancing reasonably
accommodates ‘‘conflicting policies that
were committed to the agency’s care by
the statute.’’ 784
EPA also has significant discretion in
considering a range of stringency.
Section 202(a)(2) of the Clean Air Act
requires only that the standards ‘‘take
effect after such period as the
Administrator finds necessary to permit
the development and application of the
requisite technology, giving appropriate
consideration to the cost of compliance
within such period.’’ This language
affords EPA considerable discretion in
how to weight the critical statutory
factors of emission reductions, cost, and
lead time. See 76 FR 57129–57130.
784 Center for Biological Diversity v. National
Highway Traffic Safety Admin., 538 F.3d 1172,
1194 (9th Cir. 2008). For further discussion see 76
FR 57198.
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40489
As discussed in this Preamble’s
Sections II (Engines), III (Tractors), IV
(Trailers), V (Vocational Vehicles), And
VI (Pickups And Vans), although
NHTSA and EPA are proposing
Alternative 3 for each vehicle category,
we have also closely examined the
potential feasibility of Alternative 4 for
each category, and specifically direct
commenters’ attention to the analysis
and discussions contained in those
sections for both Alternatives 3 and 4.
As discussed in those sections, if we
reanalyze relevant existing information
or receive relevant comments or new
information between the proposal and
final rule that supports a more
accelerated implementation of the
proposed standards, the agencies may
consider establishing final fuel
consumption and GHG standards at the
Alternative 4 levels and timing if we
deem them to be maximum feasible and
reasonable for NHTSA and EPA,
respectively. This Section X describes
all of the alternatives considered, and
provides context for the relative
stringency, costs, and benefits
associated with Alternatives 3 and 4, as
compared to the other alternatives. The
agencies seek comment on all of the
alternatives, as well as whether we
should consider more, fewer or different
alternatives for the final rule analysis.
A. What are the alternatives that the
Agencies considered?
The five alternatives below represent
a broad range of potential stringency
levels, and thus a broad range of
associated technologies, costs and
benefits for a HD vehicle fuel efficiency
and GHG emissions program. All of the
alternatives were modeled using the
same methodologies described in
Chapter 5 of the draft RIA. The
alternatives in order of increasing fuel
efficiency and GHG emissions
reductions are as follows:
(1) Alternative 1: No Action (The
Baseline for Phase 2)
OMB guidance regarding regulatory
analysis indicates that proper evaluation
of the benefits and costs of regulations
and their alternatives requires agencies
to identify a baseline:
‘‘You need to measure the benefits and
costs of a rule against a baseline. This
baseline should be the best assessment
of the way the world would look absent
the proposed action. The choice of an
appropriate baseline may require
consideration of a wide range of
potential factors, including:
• Evolution of the market,
• changes in external factors affecting
expected benefits and costs,
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• changes in regulations promulgated
by the agency or other government
entities, and
• the degree of compliance by
regulated entities with other regulations.
It may be reasonable to forecast that the
world absent the regulation will
resemble the present. If this is the case,
however, your baseline should reflect
the future effect of current government
programs and policies. For review of an
existing regulation, a baseline assuming
no change in the regulatory program
generally provides an appropriate basis
for evaluating regulatory alternatives.
When more than one baseline is
reasonable and the choice of baseline
will significantly affect estimated
benefits and costs, you should consider
measuring benefits and costs against
alternative baselines. In doing so you
can analyze the effects on benefits and
costs of making different assumptions
about other agencies’ regulations, or the
degree of compliance with your own
existing rules. In all cases, you must
evaluate benefits and costs against the
same baseline. You should also discuss
the reasonableness of the baselines used
in the sensitivity analyses. For each
baseline you use, you should identify
the key uncertainties in your
forecast.’’ 785
A no-action alternative is also
required as a baseline against which to
measure environmental impacts of the
proposed standards and alternatives.
NHTSA, as required by the National
Environmental Policy Act, is
documenting these estimated impacts in
the draft EIS published with this
proposed rule.786
As discussed later in this section, the
agencies are requesting comment on
Alternative 1 in order to ensure an
appropriate analytical baseline (also
termed ‘reference case’) for the Phase 2
rulemaking. Alternative 1 is an
analytical tool, but, as discussed below,
785 OMB Circular A–4, September 17, 2003.
Available at https://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/
circulars_a004_a-4.
786 NEPA requires agencies to consider a ‘‘no
action’’ alternative in their NEPA analyses and to
compare the effects of not taking action with the
effects of the reasonable action alternatives to
demonstrate the different environmental effects of
the action alternatives. See 40 CFR 1502.2(e), and
1502.14(d). CEQ has explained that ‘‘[T]he
regulations require the analysis of the no action
alternative even if the agency is under a court order
or legislative command to act. This analysis
provides a benchmark, enabling decision makers to
compare the magnitude of environmental effects of
the action alternatives. [See 40 CFR 1502.14(c).]
* * * Inclusion of such an analysis in the EIS is
necessary to inform Congress, the public, and the
President as intended by NEPA. [See 40 CFR
1500.1(a).]’’ Forty Most Asked Questions
Concerning CEQ’s National Environmental Policy
Act Regulations, 46 FR 18026 (1981) (emphasis
added).
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no new standards beyond Phase 1 is not
a potential outcome of the Phase 2
rulemaking, as that outcome would not
meet the requirements of either EISA or
the CAA.
The No Action Alternative for today’s
analysis, alternatively referred to as the
‘‘baseline’’ or ‘‘reference case,’’ assumes
that the agencies would not issue new
rules regarding MD/HD fuel efficiency
and GHG emissions. That is, this
alternative assumes that the Phase 1
MD/HD fuel efficiency and GHG
emissions program’s model year 2018
standards would be extended
indefinitely and without change.
The agencies recognize that there are
a number of factors that create
uncertainty in projecting a baseline
against which to compare the future
effects of the proposed action and the
remaining alternatives. The composition
of the future fleet—such as the relative
position of individual manufacturers
and the mix of products they each
offer—cannot be predicted with
certainty at this time. As reflected, in
part, by the market forecast underlying
the agencies’ analysis, we anticipate that
the baseline market for medium- and
heavy-duty vehicles will continue to
evolve within a competitive market that
responds to a range of factors.
Additionally, the heavy-duty vehicle
market is diverse, as is the range of
vehicle purchasers.
Heavy-duty vehicle manufacturers
have reported that their customers’
purchasing decisions are influenced by
their customers’ own determinations of
minimum total cost of ownership,
which can be unique to a particular
customer’s circumstances. For example,
some customers (e.g., less-thantruckload or package delivery operators)
operate their vehicles within a limited
geographic region and typically own
their own vehicle maintenance and
repair centers within that region. These
operators tend to own their vehicles for
long time periods, and sometimes for
the entire service life of the vehicle.
Their total cost of ownership is
influenced by their ability to better
control their own maintenance costs,
and thus they can afford to consider fuel
efficiency technologies that have longer
payback periods, outside of the vehicle
manufacturer’s warranty period. Other
customers (e.g. truckload or long-haul
operators) tend to operate cross-country,
and thus must depend upon truck
dealer service centers for repair and
maintenance. Some of these customers
tend to own their vehicles for about four
to seven years, so that they typically do
not have to pay for repair and
maintenance costs outside of either the
manufacturer’s warranty period or some
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other extended warranty period. Many
of these customers tend to require
seeing evidence of fuel efficiency
technology payback periods on the
order of 18 to 24 months before
seriously considering evaluating a new
technology for potential adoption
within their fleet (NAS 2010, Roeth et
al. 2013, Klemick et al. 2014).
Purchasing decisions, however, are not
based exclusively on payback period,
but also include the considerations
discussed in this section. For the
baseline analysis, the agencies use
payback period as a proxy for all of
these considerations, and therefore the
payback period for the baseline analysis
is shorter than the payback period
industry uses as a threshold for the
further consideration of a technology.
Purchasers of HD pickups and vans
wanting better fuel efficiency will
demand that fuel consumption
improvements pay back within
approximately one to three years, but
not all purchasers fall into this category.
Some HD pickup and van owners accrue
relatively few vehicle miles traveled per
year, such that they may be less likely
to adopt new fuel efficiency
technologies, while other owners who
use their vehicle(s) with greater
intensity may be even more willing to
pay for fuel efficiency improvements.
Regardless of the type of customer, their
determination of minimum total cost of
ownership involves the customer
balancing their own unique
circumstances with a heavy-duty
vehicle’s initial purchase price,
availability of credit and lease options,
expectations of vehicle reliability, resale
value and fuel efficiency technology
payback periods. The degree of the
incentive to adopt additional fuel
efficiency technologies also depends on
customer expectations of future fuel
prices, which directly impacts customer
expectations of the payback period.
Another factor the agencies
considered is that other federal and
state-level policies and programs are
specifically aimed at stimulating fuel
efficiency technology development and
deployment. Particularly relevant to this
sector are DOE’s 21st Century Truck
Partnership, EPA’s voluntary SmartWay
Transport program, and California’s
AB32 fleet requirements.787 788 789 The
future availability of more cost-effective
technologies to reduce fuel
consumption could provide
manufacturers an incentive to produce
787 https://energy.gov/eere/vehicles/vehicletechnologies-office-21st-century-truck.
788 https://www.epa.gov/smartway/.
789 State of California Global Warming Solutions
Act of 2006 (Assembly Bill 32, or AB32).
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more fuel-efficient medium- and heavyduty vehicles, which in turn could
provide customers an incentive to
purchase these vehicles. The availability
of more cost-effective technologies to
reduce fuel consumption could also
lead to a substitution of less costeffective technologies, where overall
fuel efficiency could remain fairly flat if
buyers are less interested in fuel
consumption improvements than in
reduced vehicle purchase prices and/or
improved vehicle performance and/or
utility.
Although we have estimated the cost
and efficacy of fuel-saving technologies
assuming performance and utility will
be held constant, some uncertainty
remains regarding whether these
conditions will actually be observed. In
particular, we have assumed payload
will be preserved (and possibly
improved via reduced vehicle curb
weight); however, some fuel-saving
technologies, such as natural gas fueled
vehicles and hybrid electric vehicles,
could reduce payload via increased curb
weight due to the fuel tanks or added
electrical machine, batteries and
controls. It is also possible that under
extended high power demand resulting
from a vehicle towing up a road grade,
certain types of hybrid powertrains
could experience a temporary loss of
towing capacity if the capacity of the
hybrid’s energy storage device (e.g.,
batteries, hydraulic accumulator) is
insufficient for the extended power
demand. We have also assumed that
fuel-saving technologies will be no more
or less reliable than technologies
already in production. However, if
manufacturers pursue risky technologies
or if the agencies provide insufficient
lead-time to fully develop new
technologies, they could prove to be less
reliable, perhaps leading to increased
repair costs and out-of-service time.
This was observed as an unintended
consequence of certain manufacturers’
initial introduction of certain emissions
control technologies to meet EPA’s most
stringent heavy-duty engine standards.
If the fuel-saving technologies
considered here ultimately involve
similar reliability problems, overall
costs will be greater than we have
estimated. We have assumed drivers
will be as accepting of new fuel-saving
technologies as they are of technologies
already in service. However, drivers
could be less accepting of newer
technologies—particularly any which
must be deployed manually. Except for
increased costs to replace more efficient
tires, we have assumed that routine
maintenance costs will not increase or
decrease. However, maintenance of new
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technologies could involve unique tools
and parts. Therefore, maintenance costs
could increase, and maintenance could
involve increased vehicle out-of-service
time. On the other hand new
technologies can sometimes prove to be
more reliable and require less
maintenance than the technologies they
replace. One example of this is the
auxiliary power unit (APU) frequently
installed on heavy-duty sleeper cab
tractors. In the past these have been
typically powered by small nonroad
diesel engines that can require more
frequent maintenance than the main
engine of the tractor itself. However,
more recently, as electric battery
technology has advanced, some tractor
manufacturers have introduced battery
APUs instead of engine-driven APUs. A
comparison of recent sales of small
engine driven APUs versus battery
APUs suggests that customers may
prefer battery APUs,790 and some
operators and tractor dealerships have
also told the agencies that the decrease
in routine maintenance was an
important factor in purchase decisions
in favor of battery APUs. Again, insofar
as these unaccounted-for costs or
savings actually occur, overall costs
could be larger or smaller than we have
estimated. We have also applied the
EIA’s AEO estimates of future fuel
prices; however, heavy-duty vehicle
customers could have different
expectations about future fuel prices,
and could therefore be more inclined or
less inclined to apply new technology to
reduce fuel consumption than might be
expected based on EIA’s forecast. We
expect that vehicle customers will be
uncertain about future fuel prices, and
that this uncertainty will be reflected in
the degree of enthusiasm to apply new
technology to reduce fuel consumption.
Considering all of these factors, the
agencies have approached the definition
of the No Action Alternative separately
for each vehicle and engine category
covered by today’s proposal.
For trailers, the agencies considered
two No Action alternatives to cover a
nominal range of uncertainty. The
trailer category is unique in the context
of this rulemaking because it is the only
heavy-duty category not regulated under
Phase 1. In both No Action cases, the
agencies projected that the combination
of EPA’s voluntary SmartWay program,
DOE’s 21st Century Truck Partnership,
California’s AB32 trailer requirements
for fleets, and the potential for
significantly reduced operating costs
should result in continuing
790 Confidence Report: Idle-Reduction Solutions,
North American Council for Freight Efficiency, Lee,
Tessa, 2014, p. 13.
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40491
improvement to new trailers. Taking
this into account, the agencies project
that in 2018, 50 percent of new 53′ dry
van and reefer trailers would have
technologies qualifying for the
SmartWay label (5 percent aerodynamic
improvements and lower rolling
resistance tires) and 50 percent would
have automatic tire inflation systems to
maintain optimal tire pressure. We also
project that adoption of those same
technologies would increase 1 percent
per year until each technology is being
used on 60 percent of new trailers. In
the first case, Alternative 1a, this means
that the agencies project that in the
absence of new standards, the new
trailer fleet technology would stabilize
in 2027 to a level of 60 percent adoption
in 2027 for the No Action alternative. In
the second case, Alternative 1b, the
agencies projected that the fraction of
the in-use fleet qualifying for SmartWay
would continue to increase beyond 2027
as older trailers are replaced by newer
trailers. We projected that these
improvements would continue until
2040 when 75 percent of new trailers
would be assumed to include skirts.
For vocational vehicles, the agencies
considered one No Action alternative.
For the vocational vehicle category the
agencies recognized that these vehicles
tend to operate over fewer vehicle miles
travelled per year. Therefore, the
projected payback periods for fuel
efficiency technologies available for
vocational vehicles are generally longer
than the payback periods the agencies
consider likely to lead to their adoption
based solely on market forces. This is
especially true for vehicles used in
applications in which the vehicle
operation is secondary to the primary
business of the company using the
vehicle. For example, since the fuel
consumption of vehicles used by utility
companies to repair power lines would
generally be a smaller cost relative to
the other costs of repairing lines, fuel
saving technologies would generally not
be as strongly demanded for such
vehicles. Thus, the agencies project that
fuel-saving technologies would either
not be applied or only be applied as a
substitute for more expensive fuel
efficiency technologies, except as
necessitated by the Phase 1 fuel
consumption and GHG standards.
For tractors, the agencies considered
two No Action alternatives to cover a
nominal range of uncertainty. For
Alternative 1a the agencies project that
fuel-saving technologies would either
not be applied or only be applied as a
substitute for more expensive fuel
efficiency technologies to tractors
(thereby enabling manufacturers to offer
tractors that are less expensive to
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purchase), except as necessitated by the
Phase 1 fuel consumption and GHG
standards. In Alternative 1b the agencies
estimated that some available
technologies would save enough fuel to
pay back fairly quickly—within the first
six months of ownership. The agencies
considered a range of information to
formulate these two baselines for
tractors.
Both public 791 and confidential
historical information shows that tractor
trailer fuel efficiency improved steadily
through improvements in engine
efficiency and vehicle aerodynamics
over the past 40 years, except for engine
efficiency which decreased or was flat
between 2000 and approximately 2007
as a consequence of incorporating
technologies to meet engine emission
regulations. Today vehicle
manufacturers, the Federal Government,
academia and others continue to invest
in research to develop fuel efficiency
improving technologies for the future.
There is also evidence that
manufacturers have, in the past, applied
technologies to improve fuel efficiency
absent a regulatory requirement to do
so. Some manufacturers have even taken
regulatory risk in order to increase fuel
efficiency; in the 1990s, when fuel was
comparatively inexpensive, some tractor
manufacturers designed tractor engine
controls to determine when the vehicle
was not being emissions tested and,
under such conditions, shift to more
fuel-efficient operation even though
doing so caused the vehicles to violate
federal standards for NOX emissions.
Also, some manufacturers have recently
expressed concern that the Phase 1
tractor standards do not credit them for
fuel-saving technologies they had
already implemented before the Phase 1
standards were adopted.
In public meetings and in meetings
with the agencies, the trucking industry
stated that fuel cost for tractors is the
number one or number two expense for
many operators, and therefore is a very
important factor for their business.
However, the pre-Phase 1 market
suggests that, tractor manufacturers and
operators could be slow to adopt some
new technologies, even where the
agencies have estimated that the
technology would have paid for itself
791 Committee to Assess Fuel Economy
Technologies for Medium- and Heavy-Duty
Vehicles; National Research Council;
Transportation Research Board (2010).
‘‘Technologies and Approaches to Reducing the
Fuel Consumption of Medium- and Heavy-Duty
Vehicles,’’ (hereafter, ‘‘NAS 2010’’). Washington,
DC. The National Academies Press. Available
electronically from the National Academies Press
Web site at https://www.nap.edu/
catalog.php?record_id=12845 (last accessed
September 10, 2010).
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within a few months of operation.
Tractor operators have told the agencies
they generally require technologies to be
demonstrated in their fleet before
widespread adoption so they can assess
the actual fuel savings for their fleet and
any increase in cost associated with
effects on vehicle operation,
maintenance, reliability, mechanic
training, maintenance and repair
equipment, stocking unique parts and
driver acceptance, as well as effects on
vehicle resale value. Tractor operators
have publicly stated they would
consider conducting an assessment of
technologies when provided with data
that show the technologies may payback
costs through fuel savings within 18 to
24 months, based on their assumptions
about future fuel costs. In these cases,
an operator may first conduct a detailed
paper study of anticipated costs and
benefits. If that study shows likely
payback in 18 to 24 months for their
business, the fleet may acquire one or
several tractors with the technology to
directly measure fuel savings, costs and
driver acceptance for their fleet. Small
fleets may not have resources to conduct
assessments to this degree and may rely
on information from larger fleets or
observations of widespread acceptance
of the technology within the industry
before adopting a technology. This
uncertainty over the actual fuel savings
and costs and the lengthy process to
assess technologies significantly slows
the pace at which fuel efficiency
technologies are adopted.
The agencies believe that using the
two baselines addresses the
uncertainties we have identified for
tractors. The six-month payback period
of Alternative 1b reflects the agencies’
consideration of factors, discussed
above, that could limit—yet not
eliminate—manufacturers’ tendencies to
voluntarily improve fuel consumption.
In contrast, Alternative 1a reflects a
baseline for vehicles other than trailers
wherein manufacturers either do not
apply fuel efficiency technologies or
only apply them as a substitute for more
expensive fuel efficiency technologies,
except as necessitated by the Phase 1
fuel consumption and GHG standards.
For HD pickups and vans, the
agencies considered two No Action
alternatives to cover a nominal range of
uncertainty. In Alternative 1b the
agencies considered additional
technology application, which involved
the explicit estimation of the potential
to add specific fuel-saving technologies
to each specific vehicle model included
in the agencies’ HD pickup and van fleet
analysis, as discussed in Chapter VI.
Estimated technology application and
corresponding impacts depend on the
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modeled inputs. Also, under this
approach a manufacturer that has
improved fuel consumption and GHG
emissions enough to achieve
compliance with the standards is
assumed to apply further improvements,
provided those improvements reduce
fuel outlays by enough (within a
specified amount of time, the payback
period) to offset the additional costs to
purchase the new vehicle. These
calculations explicitly account for and
respond to fuel prices, vehicle survival
and mileage accumulation, and the cost
and efficacy of available fuel-saving
technologies. Therefore, all else being
equal, more technology is applied when
fuel prices are higher and/or technology
is more cost-effective. Manufacturers of
HD pickups and vans have reported to
the agencies that buyers of these
vehicles consider the total cost of
vehicle ownership, not just new vehicle
price, and that manufacturers plan as if
buyers will expect fuel consumption
improvements to ‘‘pay back’’ within
periods ranging from approximately one
to three years. For example, some
manufacturers made decisions to
introduce more efficient HD vans and
HD pickup transmissions before such
vehicles were subject to fuel
consumption and/or GHG standards.
However, considering factors discussed
above that could limit manufacturers’
tendency to voluntarily improve HD
pickup and van fuel consumption,
Alternative 1b applies a 6-month
payback period. In contrast for
Alternative 1a the agencies project that
fuel-saving technologies would either
not be applied or only be applied as a
substitute for more expensive fuel
efficiency technologies, except as
necessitated by the Phase 1 fuel
consumption and GHG standards. The
Method A sensitivity analysis presented
above in Section VI also examines other
payback periods. In terms of impacts
under reference case fuel prices, the
payback period input plays a more
significant role under the No-Action
Alternatives (defined by a continuation
of model year 2018 standards) than
under the more stringent regulatory
alternatives described next.
(2) Alternative 2: Less Stringent Than
the Preferred Alternative
For vocational vehicles and
combination tractor-trailers, Alternative
2 represents a stringency level which is
approximately half as stringent overall
as the preferred alternative. The
agencies developed Alternative 2 to
consider a continuation of the Phase 1
approach of applying off-the-shelf
technologies rather than requiring the
development of new technologies or
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fundamental improvements to existing
technologies. For tractors and vocational
vehicles, this also involved less
integrated optimization of the vehicles
and engines. Put another way,
Alternative 2 is not technology-forcing.
See, e.g., Sierra Club v. EPA, 325 F. 3d
374, 378 (D.C. Cir. 2003) (under a
technology-forcing provision, EPA
‘‘must consider future advances in
pollution control capability’’); see also
similar discussion in Husqvarna AB v.
EPA, 254 F. 3d 195, 201 (D.C. Cir. 2001).
The agencies’ decisions regarding
which technologies could be applied to
comply with Alternative 2 considered
not only the use of off-the shelf
technologies, but also considered other
factors as well, such as how broadly
certain technologies fit in-use
applications and regulatory structure.
The resulting Alternative 2 could be met
with most of the same technologies the
agencies project could be used to meet
the proposed standards, although at
lower application rates. Alternative 2 is
estimated to be achievable without the
application of some technologies, at any
level. These and other differences are
described below by category.
The agencies project that Alternative
2 combination tractor standards could
be met by applying lower adoption rates
of the projected technologies for
Alternative 3. This includes a projection
of slightly lower per-technology
effectiveness for Alternative 2 versus 3.
Alternative 2 also assumes that there
would be little optimization of
combination tractor powertrains.
The agencies project that the
Alternative 2 vocational vehicle
standard could be met without any use
of strong hybrids. Rather, it could be
met with lower adoption rates of the
other technologies that could be used to
meet Alternative 3, our proposed
standards. This includes a projection of
slightly lower per-technology
effectiveness for Alternative 2 versus 3
and little optimization of vocational
vehicle powertrains.
The Alternative 2 trailer standards
would apply to only 53-foot dry and
refrigerated box trailers and could be
met through the use of less effective
aerodynamic technologies and higher
rolling resistance tires versus what the
agencies projected could be used to
meet Alternative 3.
As discussed above in Section VI.D.,
the HD pickup truck and van
alternatives are characterized by an
annual required percentage change
(decrease) in the functions defining
attribute-based targets for per-mile fuel
consumption and GHG emissions.
Under the standards in each alternative,
a manufacturer’s fleet would, setting
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aside any changes in production mix, be
required to achieve average fuel
consumption/GHG levels that increase
in stringency every year relative to the
standard defined for MY2018 (and held
constant through 2020) that establishes
fuel consumption/GHG targets for
individual vehicles. A manufacturer’s
specific fuel consumption/GHG
requirement is the sales-weighted
average of the targets defined by the
work-factor curve in each year.
Therefore, although the alternatives
involve steady increases in the
functions defining the targets,
stringency increases faced by any
individual manufacturer may not be
steady if changes in the manufacturer’s
product mix cause fluctuations in the
average fuel consumption and GHG
levels required of the manufacturer. See
Section VI.D. for additional discussion
of this topic. Alternative 2 represents a
2.0 percent annual improvement
through 2025 in fuel consumption/GHG
emissions relative to the work-factor
curve in 2020. This would be 0.5
percent less stringent per year compared
to the proposed standards of Alternative
3.
For HD pickups and vans the agencies
project that most manufacturers could
comply with the standards defining
Alternative 2 by applying technologies
similar to those that could be applied in
order to comply with the proposed
standards, but at lower application rates
than could be necessitated by the
proposed standards. The biggest
technology difference the agencies
project between Alternative 2 and the
proposed standards of Alternative 3
would be that we project that most
manufacturers could meet the
Alternative 2 standards without any use
of stop-start or other mild or strong
hybrid technologies.
Of course, these estimates depend not
only on the stringency of the standards
defining this regulatory alternative, but
also on other input estimates, in
particular the detailed composition of
the agencies’ HD pickup and van market
forecast; the agencies’ estimates of the
future availability, cost, and efficacy of
fuel-saving HD pickup and van
technologies; and the agencies’
estimates of future fuel prices. Even
without changes to the standards
defining this regulatory alternative,
changes to analysis inputs would lead to
different estimates of the extent to
which various technologies might be
applied under this regulatory
alternative.
The agencies are not proposing
Alternative 2 as a matter of both policy
and law. Based on our current analysis
for each of the subcategories, it
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40493
presently appears that technically
feasible alternate standards are available
that provide for greater emission
reductions and reduced fuel
consumption, including the proposed
standards. Such alternative standards,
including the proposed standards and
potentially Alternative 4, are feasible at
reasonable cost, considering both pervehicle and per-engine cost, costeffectiveness, and lead time.
Consequently, at this point the agencies
do not believe that the modest
improvements in Alternative 2 would be
appropriate or otherwise reasonable
under Section 202(a)(1) and (2) of the
Clean Air Act, or represent the
‘‘maximum feasible improvement’’
within the meaning of 49 U.S.C.
32902(k)(2).
(3) Alternative 3: Preferred Alternative
and Proposed Standards
The agencies are proposing
Alternative 3 for HD engines, HD pickup
trucks and vans, Class 2b through Class
8 vocational vehicles, Class 7 and 8
combination tractors, and most
categories of trailers. Details regarding
modeling of this alternative are
included in Chapter 5 of the draft RIA.
Unlike the Phase 1 standards where
the agencies projected that
manufacturers could meet the Phase 1
standards with off-the-shelf
technologies only, the agencies project
that Alternative 3 standards could be
met through a combination of off-theshelf technologies applied at higher
market penetration rates and new
technologies that are still in various
stages of development and not yet in
production. Although this alternative is
technology-forcing, it must be kept in
mind that the standards themselves are
performance-based and thus do not
mandate any particular technology be
used to meet the standards. The
agencies recognize that there is some
uncertainty in projecting costs and
effectiveness for those technologies not
yet available on the market, but we do
not believe, as discussed
comprehensively in Sections II, III, IV,
V, and VI, that such uncertainty is not
sufficient to render Alternative 3
beyond the reasonable or maximum
feasible level of stringency for each of
the vehicle categories covered by this
program. Given that all of the proposed
standards are performance-based rather
than mandates of specific technologies,
and given that the lead time for the most
stringent standards in Alternative 3 is
greater than 10 years, the agencies
believe that the performance that would
be required by these stringency levels of
Alternative 3 would allow each
manufacturer to choose to develop
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technology and apply it to their vehicles
in a way that balances their unique
business constraints and reflects their
specific market position and customers’
needs.
We have described in detail above,
and also in Chapter 2 of the draft RIA,
the precise bases for each of the
proposed standards (that is, for each
segment covered under the program).
For HD pickups and vans, Alternative 3
represents a 2.5 percent compounded
annual improvement through 2027 in
fuel consumption/GHG emissions
relative to the work-factor curve in
2020.
Sections II through VI of this notice
provide comprehensive explanations of
the consideration that the agencies gave
to proposing standards that are more
accelerated than Alternative 3, based on
the agencies’ projection of how such
standards could be met through the
accelerated application of technologies
and our reasons for concluding that the
identified technologies for each of the
vehicle and engine standards that
constitute Alternative 3 represent the
maximum feasible (within the meaning
of 49 U.S.C. 32902(k)) and reasonable
(for purposes of CAA section 202 (a))
based on all of the information available
to the agencies at the time of this
proposal.
(4) Alternative 4: More Accelerated
Than the Preferred Alternative
As indicated by its description in the
title above, Alternative 4 represents
standards that are effective on a more
accelerated timeline in comparison to
the timeline of the proposed standards
in Alternative 3. The agencies believe
that Alternative 4 could potentially be
maximum feasible and appropriate, but
at this time the agencies have identified
sufficient uncertainty in the information
that the agencies have considered with
respect to the technologies’ readiness,
effectiveness and costs such that the
agencies cannot yet conclude that
Alternative 4 represents maximum
feasible and appropriate standards.
Accordingly, although we are not
proposing Alternative 4, we are
requesting comment on adopting some
or all of Alternative 4 in the final rule.
The agencies would especially welcome
data on the projected readiness,
effectiveness, and costs of technologies
the agencies consider for compliance
with Alternative 4 standards, which in
many cases are identical to the
technologies considered for the
Alternative 3 standards. It would be
especially helpful if commenters
addressed each category separately;
namely, tractors and vocational vehicles
and their engines; trailers, and pickups
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and vans. The agencies would consider
adopting Alternative 4’s stringencies
and lead time for the final rule,
depending on the information and
comments received in response to this
notice and based on additional
consideration of the information we
already have in-hand.
Alternatives 3 and 4 were both
designed to achieve similar fuel
efficiency and GHG emission levels in
the long term but with Alternative 4
being accelerated in its implementation
timeline. Specifically, alternative 4
reflects the same or similar standard
stringency levels as alternative 3, but 3
years sooner (2 years for heavy-duty
pickups and vans), so that the final
phase of the standards would occur in
MY 2024, or (for heavy duty pickups
and vans) 2025.
As discussed above and in the
feasibility discussions in Sections II–VI,
we are not proposing Alternative 4. By
accelerating the adoption schedule, this
option would result in several model
years of incrementally greater fuel
consumption and GHG emission
reductions than Alternative 3, but it
does raise concerns about adequacy of
lead time. The agencies have
outstanding questions regarding relative
risks and benefits of Alternative 4 due
to the timeframe envisioned by that
alternative.
The agencies recognize the potential
for larger net benefits if Alternative 4
were selected, and we therefore
welcome comments addressing the
feasibility and availability of relevant
technologies in the identified lead time.
Commenters are particularly encouraged
to address all aspects of feasibility
analysis, including effectiveness and
costs, the likelihood of developing
available technologies to achieve
sufficient reliability within the
proposed lead time, and the extent to
which the heavy-duty vehicle market
would accept and utilize the
technology. Comments should ideally
address these issues separately for each
type of technology, especially with
respect to advanced technologies like
waste heat recovery systems and hybrid
powertrains. Although we summarize
the specific differences below, readers
are encouraged to see Sections II
through VI for more detailed
descriptions of how the agencies
projected how manufacturers could
implement certain technologies in order
to meet the standards of Alternative 4.
The agencies project that Alternative
4 combination tractor standards could
be met by applying initially higher
adoption rates of the projected
technologies for Alternative 3. This
includes a projection of slightly higher
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per-technology effectiveness for
Alternative 4 versus 3. Alternative 4
also assumes that there would be more
optimization of combination tractor
powertrains and earlier market
penetration of engine waste heat
recovery systems.
The agencies project that the
Alternative 4 vocational vehicle
standard could be met through earlier
adoption rates of the same technology
packages projected for Alternative 3.
This includes a projection of slightly
higher per-technology effectiveness for
Alternative 4 versus 3.
The Alternative 4 trailer standards
could be met through earlier
implementation of more effective
aerodynamic technologies, including
the use of aerodynamic skirts and boat
tails. This would be in addition to
implementing lower rolling resistance
tires for nearly all trailers.
HD pickup truck and van standards
defining Alternative 4 represent a 3.5
percent annual improvement in fuel
consumption and GHG emissions
through 2025 relative to the work-factor
curves in 2020. Of course, this finding
depends not only on the stringency of
the standards defining this regulatory
alternative, but also on other input
estimates, in particular the detailed
composition of the agencies’ HD pickup
and van market forecast; the agencies’
estimates of the future availability, cost,
and efficacy of fuel-saving HD pickup
and van technologies; and the agencies’
estimates of future fuel prices. Even
without changes to the standards
defining this regulatory alternative,
changes to analysis inputs will lead to
different estimates of the extent to
which various technologies might be
applied under this regulatory
alternative.
(5) Alternative 5: Even More Stringent
Standards With No Additional LeadTime
Alternative 5 represents even more
stringent standards compared to
Alternatives 3 and 4, as well as the same
implementation timeline as Alternative
4. As discussed above and in the
feasibility discussions in Sections II–VI,
we are not proposing Alternative 5
because we cannot project that
manufacturers can develop and
introduce in sufficient quantities the
technologies that could be used to meet
Alternative 5 standards. We believe that
for some or all of the categories, the
Alternative 5 standards are technically
infeasible within the lead time allowed.
We have not fully estimated costs for
this alternative for tractors and
vocational vehicles because we believe
that there would be such substantial
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additional costs related to pulling ahead
the development of so many additional
technologies that we cannot accurately
predict these costs. We also believe this
alternative could result in a decrease in
the in-use reliability and durability of
new heavy-duty vehicles and that we do
not have the ability to accurately
quantify the costs that would be
associated with such problems. Instead
we merely note that costs would be
significantly greater than the estimated
costs for Alternatives 3 and 4.
B. How do these alternatives compare in
overall fuel consumption and GHG
emissions reductions and in benefits
and costs?
The following tables compare the
overall fuel consumption and GHG
emissions reductions and benefits and
costs of each of the regulatory
alternatives the agencies considered.
Note that for tractors, trailers, pickups
and vans the agencies compared overall
fuel consumption and GHG emissions
reductions and benefits and costs
relative to two different baselines,
described above in the section on the No
Action alternative. Therefore, for
tractors, trailers, pickups and vans two
results are listed; one relative to each
baseline, namely Alternative 1a and
Alternative 1b.
Also note that the agencies analyzed
pickup and van overall fuel
consumption and emissions reductions
and benefits and costs using the
NHTSA’s CAFE model (Method A). In
addition, the agencies used EPA’s
MOVES model to estimate pickup and
van fuel consumption and emissions
and a cost methodology that applied
vehicle costs in different model years
(Method B). In both cases, the agencies
used the CAFE model to estimate
40495
average per vehicle cost, and this
analysis extended through model year
2030.792 The agencies concluded that in
these instances the choice of baseline
and the choice of modeling approach
(Method A versus Method B) did not
impact the agencies’ decision to propose
Alternative 3 as the preferred alternative
and hence the proposed standards for
HD pickups and vans.
Table X–1 compares fuel savings,
technology costs, avoided emissions,
total costs, and benefits for the above
regulatory alternatives as estimated
under Method A. Table X–2 provides
the same comparisons for Method B.
Subsequent tables summarize segmentspecific results and projections for
longer-term impacts. The regulatory
impact analysis (RIA) accompanying
today’s notice presents more detailed
results of the agencies’ analysis.
(1) Method A Tables
TABLE X–1—SUMMARY OF COSTS AND BENEFITS THROUGH MY 2029 BY ALTERNATIVE, DISCOUNTED AT 3% (RELATIVE
TO BASELINE 1a), METHOD A a
Vehicle segment
Alt 2
Alt 3
Alt 4
Alt 5
Discounted pre-tax fuel savings ($billion)
HD pickups and Vans ..............................................................
Vocational Vehicles .................................................................
Tractors/Trailers .......................................................................
11.7
5.6
88.1
18.3
18.4
138.4
22.3
24.3
151.7
24.8
38.5
196.8
Total ..................................................................................
105.4
175.1
198.3
260.2
Discounted Total technology costs ($billion)
HD pickups and Vans ..............................................................
Vocational Vehicles .................................................................
Tractors/Trailers .......................................................................
3.0
1.2
9.2
5.0
7.6
12.8
8.2
10.8
15.3
9.9
26.0
34.8
Total ..................................................................................
13.4
25.4
34.3
70.6
Discounted value of emissions reductions ($billon)
HD pickups and Vans ..............................................................
Vocational Vehicles .................................................................
Tractors/Trailers .......................................................................
3.0
1.7
40.7
4.8
6.1
62.7
5.9
8.1
67.9
6.6
13.1
87.7
Total ..................................................................................
45.4
73.7
82.0
107.4
Total costs ($billion)
HD pickups and Vans ..............................................................
Vocational Vehicles .................................................................
Tractors/Trailers .......................................................................
3.5
3.0
11.5
5.7
9.5
15.5
9.1
12.8
18.1
15.2
28.1
37.5
Total ..................................................................................
18.0
30.8
40.0
80.8
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Total benefits ($billion)
HD pickups and Vans ..............................................................
Vocational Vehicles .................................................................
Tractors/Trailers .......................................................................
17.2
12.7
142.5
27.0
31.2
217.5
33.0
39.7
236.7
36.7
60.2
304.2
Total ..................................................................................
172.4
275.8
309.4
401.1
792 Although the agencies have considered
regulatory alternatives involving standards
increasing in stringency through, at the latest, 2027,
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the agencies extended the CAFE modeling analysis
through model year 2030 rather than model year
2027 in order to obtain more fully stabilized results
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given projected product cadence, multiyear
planning, and application of earned credits.
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TABLE X–1—SUMMARY OF COSTS AND BENEFITS THROUGH MY 2029 BY ALTERNATIVE, DISCOUNTED AT 3% (RELATIVE
TO BASELINE 1a), METHOD A a—Continued
Vehicle segment
Alt 2
Alt 3
Alt 4
Alt 5
Net benefits ($billion)
HD pickups and Vans ..............................................................
Vocational Vehicles .................................................................
Tractors/Trailers .......................................................................
13.7
9.6
131.0
21.3
21.7
202.0
23.9
26.9
218.7
21.5
32.1
266.7
Total ..................................................................................
154.3
245.0
269.4
320.3
Note:
a For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
TABLE X–2—SUMMARY OF PROGRAM BENEFITS AND COSTS THROUGH MY 2029, DISCOUNTED AT 3% (RELATIVE TO
BASELINE 1B), METHOD A a
Vehicle segment
Alt 2
Alt 3
Alt 4
Alt 5
Discounted pre-tax fuel savings ($billion)
HD pickups and Vans ..............................................................
Vocational Vehicles .................................................................
Tractors/Trailers .......................................................................
9.6
5.6
80.5
15.9
18.4
130.8
19.1
24.3
144.0
22.2
38.5
189.2
Total ..................................................................................
95.6
165.1
187.4
250.0
Discounted Total technology costs ($billion)
HD pickups and Vans ..............................................................
Vocational Vehicles .................................................................
Tractors/Trailers .......................................................................
2.5
1.2
8.9
5.0
7.6
12.5
7.2
10.8
15.0
9.7
25.9
34.4
Total ..................................................................................
12.5
25.0
32.9
70.0
Discounted value of emissions reductions ($billon)
HD pickups and Vans ..............................................................
Vocational Vehicles .................................................................
Tractors/Trailers .......................................................................
2.8
1.7
37.5
4.5
6.1
59.4
5.4
8.1
64.6
6.3
13.1
84.4
Total ..................................................................................
41.9
70.1
78.2
103.8
Total costs ($billion)
HD pickups and Vans ..............................................................
Vocational Vehicles .................................................................
Tractors/Trailers .......................................................................
2.8
3.0
11.2
5.5
9.5
15.2
7.8
12.8
17.7
10.4
28.0
37.2
Total ..................................................................................
17.0
30.3
38.4
75.7
Total benefits ($billion)
HD pickups and Vans ..............................................................
Vocational Vehicles .................................................................
Tractors/Trailers .......................................................................
14.1
12.7
131.1
23.5
31.2
206.2
28.3
39.7
225.4
32.9
60.2
292.8
Total ..................................................................................
157.9
260.9
293.3
385.9
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Net benefits ($billion)
HD pickups and Vans ..............................................................
Vocational Vehicles .................................................................
Tractors/Trailers .......................................................................
11.3
9.6
119.9
18.0
21.7
191.0
20.4
26.9
207.6
22.5
32.1
255.6
Total ..................................................................................
140.9
230.7
254.9
310.3
Note:
a For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
The following two tables summarize
results for each of the segments covered
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by today’s proposal, discounted at 7
percent.
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40497
TABLE X–3—SUMMARY OF PROGRAM BENEFITS AND COSTS THROUGH MY 2029, DISCOUNTED AT 7% (RELATIVE TO
BASELINE 1a), METHOD A a
Vehicle segment
Alt 2
Alt 3
Alt 4
Alt 5
Discounted pre-tax fuel savings ($billion)
HD pickups and Vans ..............................................................
Vocational Vehicles .................................................................
Tractors/Trailers .......................................................................
6.4
2.9
47.7
9.9
9.7
74.6
12.2
13.0
82.3
13.6
20.9
107.3
Total ..................................................................................
57.0
94.2
107.5
141.8
Discounted Total technology costs ($billion)
HD pickups and Vans ..............................................................
Vocational Vehicles .................................................................
Tractors/Trailers .......................................................................
2.1
0.8
6.3
3.4
5.0
8.7
5.7
7.3
10.5
6.9
17.8
23.9
Total ..................................................................................
9.1
17.1
23.5
48.6
Discounted value of emissions reductions ($billon)
HD pickups and Vans ..............................................................
Vocational Vehicles .................................................................
Tractors/Trailers .......................................................................
2.7
1.4
29.9
4.3
5.0
46.3
5.3
6.6
50.4
5.9
10.6
65.4
Total ..................................................................................
34.0
55.6
62.3
81.8
Total costs ($billion)
HD pickups and Vans ..............................................................
Vocational Vehicles .................................................................
Tractors/Trailers .......................................................................
2.4
1.8
7.6
3.8
6.1
10.3
6.2
8.4
12.1
10.1
19.0
25.5
Total ..................................................................................
11.8
20.2
26.7
54.6
Total benefits ($billion)
HD pickups and Vans ..............................................................
Vocational Vehicles .................................................................
Tractors/Trailers .......................................................................
10.4
7.3
85.1
16.3
18.3
130.0
20.1
23.6
142.2
22.3
36.2
183.5
Total ..................................................................................
102.9
164.6
185.8
242.1
Net benefits ($billion)
HD pickups and Vans ..............................................................
Vocational Vehicles .................................................................
Tractors/Trailers .......................................................................
8.1
5.5
77.5
12.4
12.2
119.7
13.9
15.2
130.1
12.2
17.2
158.0
Total ..................................................................................
91.1
144.4
159.1
187.5
Note:
a For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
TABLE X–4—SUMMARY OF PROGRAM BENEFITS AND COSTS THROUGH MY 2029, DISCOUNTED AT 7% (RELATIVE TO
BASELINE 1b), METHOD A a
Vehicle segment
Alt 2
Alt 3
Alt 4
Alt 5
ebenthall on DSK3VPTVN1PROD with MISCELLANEOUS
Discounted pre-tax fuel savings ($billion)
HD pickups and Vans ..............................................................
Vocational Vehicles .................................................................
Tractors/Trailers .......................................................................
5.2
2.9
44.0
8.5
9.7
71.0
10.4
13.0
78.6
12.2
20.9
103.7
Total ..................................................................................
52.2
89.2
102.0
136.8
3.4
5.0
8.4
4.9
7.3
10.3
6.7
17.8
23.7
Discounted Total technology costs ($billion)
HD pickups and Vans ..............................................................
Vocational Vehicles .................................................................
Tractors/Trailers .......................................................................
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TABLE X–4—SUMMARY OF PROGRAM BENEFITS AND COSTS THROUGH MY 2029, DISCOUNTED AT 7% (RELATIVE TO
BASELINE 1b), METHOD A a—Continued
Vehicle segment
Alt 2
Alt 3
Total ..................................................................................
8.5
Alt 4
16.8
Alt 5
22.5
48.2
Discounted value of emissions reductions ($billon)
HD pickups and Vans ..............................................................
Vocational Vehicles .................................................................
Tractors/Trailers .......................................................................
2.5
1.4
27.5
4.0
5.0
43.9
4.8
6.6
48.0
5.5
10.6
63.0
Total ..................................................................................
31.4
52.9
59.4
79.1
Total costs ($billion)
HD pickups and Vans ..............................................................
Vocational Vehicles .................................................................
Tractors/Trailers .......................................................................
1.9
1.8
7.3
3.7
6.1
10.0
5.3
8.4
11.9
7.1
19.0
25.3
Total ..................................................................................
11.1
19.8
25.6
51.4
Total benefits ($billion)
HD pickups and Vans ..............................................................
Vocational Vehicles .................................................................
Tractors/Trailers .......................................................................
8.6
7.3
78.9
14.1
18.3
123.7
17.1
23.6
135.9
20.0
36.2
177.3
Total ..................................................................................
94.8
156.2
176.6
233.5
Net benefits ($billion)
HD pickups and Vans ..............................................................
Vocational Vehicles .................................................................
Tractors/Trailers .......................................................................
6.7
5.5
71.5
10.5
12.2
113.7
11.9
15.2
124.0
12.9
17.2
152.0
Total ..................................................................................
83.7
136.4
151.1
182.2
Note:
a For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
While the agencies’ explicit analysis
of manufacturers’ potential responses to
today’s proposed standards extends
through model year 2030, the resulting
fuel savings and avoided emissions
summarized in the following two tables
occur as those vehicles.
TABLE X–5—FUEL SAVINGS AND GHG EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS BY VEHICLE SEGMENT, RELATIVE TO BASELINE 1a,
METHOD A a
Fuel reductions
(billion
gallons)
MY 2018–2029 Total
Upstream &
downstream GHG
reductions
(MMT)
Alternative 2
HD Pickup Trucks/Vans ...............................................................................................................................
Vocational Vehicles .....................................................................................................................................
Tractors and Trailers ...................................................................................................................................
5.5
2.5
37.8
67.5
33.6
518.8
Total ......................................................................................................................................................
45.8
619.9
HD Pickup Trucks/Vans ...............................................................................................................................
Vocational Vehicles .....................................................................................................................................
Tractors and Trailers ...................................................................................................................................
8.8
8.3
59.5
107.6
110.3
816.4
Total ......................................................................................................................................................
76.7
1,034.3
10.7
10.9
130.5
143.8
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Alt. 3—Preferred Alternative
Alt. 4
HD Pickup Trucks/Vans ...............................................................................................................................
Vocational Vehicles .....................................................................................................................................
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TABLE X–5—FUEL SAVINGS AND GHG EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS BY VEHICLE SEGMENT, RELATIVE TO BASELINE 1a,
METHOD A a—Continued
Fuel reductions
(billion
gallons)
MY 2018–2029 Total
Upstream &
downstream GHG
reductions
(MMT)
Tractors and Trailers ...................................................................................................................................
65.0
892.1
Total ......................................................................................................................................................
86.7
1,166.4
HD Pickup Trucks/Vans ...............................................................................................................................
Vocational Vehicles .....................................................................................................................................
Tractors and Trailers ...................................................................................................................................
12.0
17.3
84.2
145.4
226.9
1,155.1
Total ......................................................................................................................................................
113.4
1,527.4
Alt. 5
Note:
a For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
TABLE X–6—FUEL SAVINGS AND GHG EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS BY VEHICLE SEGMENT, RELATIVE TO BASELINE 1b,
METHOD A a
Fuel reductions
(billion gallons)
MY 2018–2029 Total
Upstream &
downstream GHG
reductions
(MMT)
Alternative 2
HD Pickup Trucks/Vans ...............................................................................................................................
Vocational Vehicles .....................................................................................................................................
Tractors and Trailers ...................................................................................................................................
4.5
2.5
34.4
55.5
33.6
471.9
Total ......................................................................................................................................................
41.4
561.0
HD Pickup Trucks/Vans ...............................................................................................................................
Vocational Vehicles .....................................................................................................................................
Tractors and Trailers ...................................................................................................................................
7.8
8.3
56.1
94.1
110.3
769.4
Total ......................................................................................................................................................
72.2
973.8
HD Pickup Trucks/Vans ...............................................................................................................................
Vocational Vehicles .....................................................................................................................................
Tractors and Trailers ...................................................................................................................................
9.3
10.9
61.6
112.8
143.8
845.2
Total ......................................................................................................................................................
81.8
1,101.8
HD Pickup Trucks/Vans ...............................................................................................................................
Vocational Vehicles .....................................................................................................................................
Tractors and Trailers ...................................................................................................................................
10.8
17.3
80.7
130.5
226.9
1,108.2
Total ......................................................................................................................................................
108.8
1,465.6
Alt. 3—Preferred Alternative
Alt. 4
Alt. 5
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Note:
a For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
Results presented above are
cumulative, spanning model years
2018–2029. Underlying these results are
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estimates of impacts for each specific
model year. As an example, Table X–7
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specific to model year 2029.
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TABLE X–7—SUMMARY OF COSTS AND BENEFITS FOR MY 2029 BY ALTERNATIVE, DISCOUNTED AT 3% (RELATIVE TO
BASELINE 1b), METHOD A a
Vehicle segment
Alt 2
Alt 3
Alt 4
Alt 5
Total Costs ($billion)
HD pickups and Vans ..............................................................
Vocational Vehicles .................................................................
Tractors/Trailers .......................................................................
0.3
0.3
1.2
0.8
1.5
1.9
0.9
1.5
1.9
1.1
2.9
3.9
Total ..................................................................................
1.9
4.1
4.3
7.9
Total Benefits ($billion)
HD pickups and Vans ..............................................................
Vocational Vehicles .................................................................
Tractors/Trailers .......................................................................
1.9
1.8
14.4
3.6
5.2
25.4
3.8
5.2
25.4
4.2
7.3
32.0
Total ..................................................................................
18.0
34.1
34.4
43.6
Net Benefits ($billon)
HD pickups and Vans ..............................................................
Vocational Vehicles .................................................................
Tractors/Trailers .......................................................................
1.5
1.4
13.2
2.8
3.7
23.5
2.9
3.7
23.5
3.1
4.4
28.1
Total ..................................................................................
16.1
30.0
30.1
35.6
Note:
a For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
(2) Method B Tables
TABLE X–8—ANNUAL GHG AND FUEL REDUCTIONS IN 2035 AND 2050 USING METHOD B AND RELATIVE TO THE LESS
DYNAMIC BASELINE a
Upstream & downstream GHG
reductions (MMT)
2035
Alt. 2 Less Stringent—Total .....................................................
Tractors and Trailers ........................................................
HD Pickup Trucks .............................................................
Vocational Vehicles ..........................................................
Alt. 3 Preferred—Total .............................................................
Tractors and Trailers ........................................................
HD Pickup Trucks .............................................................
Vocational Vehicles ..........................................................
Alt. 4 More Stringent—Total ....................................................
Tractors and Trailers ........................................................
HD Pickup Trucks .............................................................
Vocational Vehicles ..........................................................
Alt. 5 More Stringent—Total ....................................................
Tractors and Trailers ........................................................
HD Pickup Trucks .............................................................
Vocational Vehicles ..........................................................
Fuel reductions
(billion gallons)
2050
72
59
8
5
127
97
14
16
132
100
15
17
168
126
17
26
2035
101
84
11
7
183
141
19
23
184
141
19
23
232
176
22
34
2050
5.2
4.2
0.7
0.3
9.3
7.0
1.1
1.2
9.7
7.2
1.2
1.3
12.4
9.0
1.4
1.9
7.3
6.0
0.9
0.5
13.4
10.1
1.6
1.7
13.5
10.1
1.6
1.7
17.0
12.6
1.8
2.5
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Note:
a For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
TABLE X–9—BENEFIT & COST COMPARISON FOR EACH ALTERNATIVE USING METHOD B AND RELATIVE TO LESS DYNAMIC
BASELINE
[Monetary values in billions of 2012$, GHG reductions in million metric tons] a
Benefit-cost category
2035
Alt 2
¥$2.6
¥$0.06
$20.9
$12.8
$31.1
Vehicle program ..................................................
Maintenance ........................................................
Fuel (pre-tax) .......................................................
Benefits ................................................................
Net benefits .........................................................
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¥$0.13
$37.2
$20.5
$51.7
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¥$6.2
¥$0.14
$38.7
$21.1
$53.5
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N/A
N/A
$49.4
$26.3
N/A
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TABLE X–9—BENEFIT & COST COMPARISON FOR EACH ALTERNATIVE USING METHOD B AND RELATIVE TO LESS DYNAMIC
BASELINE—Continued
[Monetary values in billions of 2012$, GHG reductions in million metric tons] a
Benefit-cost category
Alt 2
Alt 3
Alt 4
Alt 5
NPV,
3%
NPV,
7%
GHG reductions (MMT) .......................................
Vehicle program ..................................................
Maintenance ........................................................
Fuel (pre-tax) .......................................................
Benefits ................................................................
Net benefits .........................................................
GHG reductions (MMT) .......................................
Vehicle program ..................................................
71.9
¥$3.1
¥$0.06
$31.5
$19.9
$48.3
101.2
¥$39.8
127.1
¥$7.0
¥$0.13
$57.5
$32.9
$83.2
183.4
¥$86.8
132.0
¥$7.4
¥$0.14
$57.6
$32.9
$83.0
183.8
¥$98.6
168.3
N/A
N/A
$72.7
$40.6
N/A
231.8
N/A
Maintenance ........................................................
Fuel (pre-tax) .......................................................
Benefits ................................................................
Net benefits .........................................................
Vehicle program ..................................................
¥$0.88
$280.0
$175.2
$414.5
¥$19.3
¥$1.80
$495.6
$279.7
$686.8
¥$41.1
¥$1.91
$517.6
$289.7
$706.8
¥$48.4
N/A
$664.3
$361.5
N/A
N/A
Maintenance ........................................................
Fuel (pre-tax) .......................................................
Benefits ................................................................
Net benefits .........................................................
2050
¥$0.42
$118.1
$105.5
$203.8
¥$0.86
$206.7
$173.5
$338.1
¥$0.92
$219.0
$180.7
$350.5
N/A
$283.0
$228.0
N/A
Note:
a For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
TABLE X–10—BENEFIT & COST COMPARISON FOR EACH ALTERNATIVE USING METHOD B AND RELATIVE TO LESS
DYNAMIC BASELINE HD PICKUP AND VANS ONLY
[Monetary values in billions of 2012$, GHG reductions in million metric tons] a
Benefit-cost category
Alt 2
Alt 3
Alt 4
Alt 5
2050
NPV,
3%
NPV,
7%
Vehicle program ..................................................
Maintenance ........................................................
Fuel (pre-tax) .......................................................
Benefits ................................................................
Net benefits .........................................................
GHG reductions (MMT) .......................................
Vehicle program ..................................................
Maintenance ........................................................
Fuel (pre-tax) .......................................................
Benefits ................................................................
Net benefits .........................................................
GHG reductions (MMT) .......................................
Vehicle program ..................................................
¥$0.5
¥$0.01
$2.5
$1.4
$3.4
8.1
¥$0.5
¥$0.01
$3.5
$2.1
$5.1
10.8
¥$7.5
¥$0.9
¥$0.01
$4.2
$2.2
$5.5
13.9
¥$1.0
¥$0.01
$6.3
$3.5
$8.7
19.3
¥$13.5
¥$1.2
¥$0.01
$4.4
$2.3
$5.5
14.6
¥$1.4
¥$0.01
$6.3
$3.5
$8.4
19.4
¥$19.6
N/A
N/A
$5.0
$2.6
N/A
16.6
N/A
N/A
$7.2
$4.0
N/A
22.1
N/A
Maintenance ........................................................
Fuel (pre-tax) .......................................................
Benefits ................................................................
Net benefits .........................................................
Vehicle program ..................................................
¥$0.18
$31.4
$18.7
$42.4
¥$3.7
¥$0.18
$53.5
$29.2
$69.1
¥$6.5
¥$0.18
$56.8
$30.7
$67.7
¥$9.7
N/A
$64.9
$34.6
N/A
N/A
Maintenance ........................................................
Fuel (pre-tax) .......................................................
Benefits ................................................................
Net benefits .........................................................
2035
¥$0.08
$13.1
$11.4
$20.7
¥$0.08
$21.9
$18.2
$33.5
¥$0.08
$23.7
$19.3
$33.2
N/A
$27.1
$21.8
N/A
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Note:
a For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
TABLE X–11—BENEFIT & COST COMPARISON FOR EACH ALTERNATIVE USING METHOD B AND RELATIVE TO LESS
DYNAMIC BASELINE VOCATIONAL VEHICLES ONLY
[Monetary values in billions of 2012$, GHG reductions in million metric tons] a
Benefit-cost category
2035
Alt 2
¥$0.2
¥$0.02
$1.3
$1.1
Vehicle program ..................................................
Maintenance ........................................................
Fuel (pre-tax) .......................................................
Benefits ................................................................
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¥$0.03
$4.7
$2.6
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¥$2.1
¥$0.04
$5.1
$2.8
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N/A
N/A
$7.6
$3.9
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TABLE X–11—BENEFIT & COST COMPARISON FOR EACH ALTERNATIVE USING METHOD B AND RELATIVE TO LESS
DYNAMIC BASELINE VOCATIONAL VEHICLES ONLY—Continued
[Monetary values in billions of 2012$, GHG reductions in million metric tons] a
Benefit-cost category
Alt 2
Alt 3
Alt 4
Alt 5
NPV,
3%
NPV,
7%
$2.2
4.7
¥$0.3
¥$0.02
$2.0
$1.7
$3.4
6.5
¥$3.6
$5.2
16.1
¥$2.4
¥$0.03
$7.3
$4.2
$9.0
23.2
¥$29.6
$5.8
17.4
¥$2.4
¥$0.04
$7.3
$4.2
$9.1
23.3
¥$32.8
..............................
25.8
N/A
N/A
$10.7
$5.9
N/A
33.9
N/A
Maintenance ........................................................
Fuel (pre-tax) .......................................................
Benefits ................................................................
Net benefits .........................................................
Vehicle program ..................................................
¥$0.22
$16.9
$14.8
$27.9
¥$1.7
¥$0.42
$60.6
$34.8
$65.4
¥$13.8
¥$0.52
$66.3
$37.4
$70.3
¥$16.0
N/A
$99.9
$52.7
N/A
N/A
Maintenance ........................................................
Fuel (pre-tax) .......................................................
Benefits ................................................................
Net benefits .........................................................
2050
Net benefits .........................................................
GHG reductions (MMT) .......................................
Vehicle program ..................................................
Maintenance ........................................................
Fuel (pre-tax) .......................................................
Benefits ................................................................
Net benefits .........................................................
GHG reductions (MMT) .......................................
Vehicle program ..................................................
¥$0.10
$6.9
$8.3
$13.4
¥$0.19
$24.7
$21.5
$32.2
¥$0.24
$27.9
$23.4
$35.0
N/A
$42.5
$33.8
N/A
Note:
a For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
TABLE X–12—BENEFIT & COST COMPARISON FOR EACH ALTERNATIVE USING METHOD B AND RELATIVE TO LESS
DYNAMIC BASELINE TRACTOR/TRAILERS ONLY
[Monetary values in billions of 2012$, GHG reductions in million metric tons] a
Benefit-cost category
Alt 2
Alt 3
Alt 4
Alt 5
2050
NPV,
3%
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NPV,
7%
Vehicle program ..................................................
Maintenance ........................................................
Fuel (pre-tax) .......................................................
Benefits ................................................................
Net benefits .........................................................
GHG reductions (MMT) .......................................
Vehicle program ..................................................
Maintenance ........................................................
Fuel (pre-tax) .......................................................
Benefits ................................................................
Net benefits .........................................................
GHG reductions (MMT) .......................................
Vehicle program ..................................................
¥$1.9
¥$0.03
$17.2
$10.3
$25.6
59.1
¥$2.3
¥$0.03
$26.1
$16.1
$39.9
83.8
¥$28.8
¥$2.9
¥$0.08
$28.4
$15.7
$41.0
97.2
¥$3.6
¥$0.08
$44.0
$25.2
$65.5
140.9
¥$43.7
¥$2.9
¥$0.08
$29.2
$16.0
$42.2
100.0
¥$3.6
¥$0.08
$44.0
$25.2
$65.6
141.1
¥$46.2
N/A
N/A
$36.8
$19.7
N/A
125.9
N/A
N/A
$54.8
$30.7
N/A
175.7
N/A
Maintenance ........................................................
Fuel (pre-tax) .......................................................
Benefits ................................................................
Net benefits .........................................................
Vehicle program ..................................................
¥$0.47
$231.7
$141.7
$344.1
¥$13.9
¥$1.19
$381.5
$215.7
$552.3
¥$20.9
¥$1.22
$394.5
$221.6
$568.8
¥$22.7
N/A
$499.5
$274.2
N/A
N/A
Maintenance ........................................................
Fuel (pre-tax) .......................................................
Benefits ................................................................
Net benefits .........................................................
2035
¥$0.23
$98.1
$85.8
$169.8
¥$0.59
$160.1
$133.8
$272.4
¥$0.60
$167.5
$138.1
$282.3
N/A
$213.4
$172.4
N/A
Note:
a For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
XI. Natural Gas Vehicles and Engines
Both gasoline and diesel vehicles can
be designed or modified to use natural
gas. NGV America estimates that
approximately 0.5 percent of the heavyduty vehicle fleet use natural gas. A
small but growing number of medium
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and heavy-duty natural gas vehicles
have been produced and are in current
use. Although these natural gas versions
are similar in many ways to their
petroleum counterparts, there are
significant differences. There are also
both similarities and differences in the
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production and distribution of natural
gas relative to gasoline and diesel fuel.
This combined rulemaking by EPA
and NHTSA is designed to regulate two
separate characteristics of heavy duty
vehicles: Emissions of GHGs and fuel
consumption. The use of natural gas as
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a heavy-duty fuel can impact both of
these. In the case of diesel or gasoline
powered vehicles, there is a close
relationship between these two
characteristics. For natural gas fueled
vehicles, which reduce or eliminate the
use of petroleum, the situation is
different. For example, a natural gas
vehicle that achieves approximately the
same fuel efficiency as a diesel powered
vehicle would emit about 20 percent
less CO2 when operating on natural gas;
and a natural gas vehicle with the same
fuel efficiency as a gasoline vehicle
would emit about 30 percent less CO2.
In Phase 1, the agencies balanced these
facts by applying the gasoline and diesel
CO2 standards to natural gas engines
based on the engine type of the natural
gas engine. Fuel consumption for these
vehicles is then calculated according to
their tailpipe CO2 emissions. In essence,
this applies a one-to-one relationship
between fuel efficiency and tailpipe CO2
emissions for all vehicles, including
natural gas vehicles. The agencies
determined that this approach would
likely create a small balanced incentive
for natural gas use. See 76 FR 57123; see
also 77 FR 51705 (August 24, 2012) and
77 FR 51500 (August 27, 2012) (EPA
and NHTSA, respectively, further
elaborating on basis for having Phase 1
apply at the tailpipe only, including for
alternative fueled vehicles); see also
Delta Construction Co. v. EPA, 783 F. 3d
1291 (D.C. Cir. 2015) U.S. App. LEXIS
6780, F.3d (D.C. Cir. April 24, 2015)
(dismissing challenge to Phase 1 GHG
standards as being arbitrary for applying
only on a tailpipe basis).
For Phase 2, the agencies have
reevaluated the potential use of natural
gas in the heavy-duty sector and the
impacts of such use. As discussed
below, based on our review of the
literature and external projections we
believe that the use of natural gas is
unlikely to become a major fuel source
for medium and heavy-duty vehicles
during the Phase 2 time frame. Thus,
since we project natural gas vehicles to
have little impact on both overall GHG
emissions and fuel consumption during
the Phase 2 time frame, the agencies see
no need to propose fundamental
changes to the Phase 1 approach for
natural gas engines and vehicles.
In the following sections, we present
a lifecycle analysis of natural gas used
by the heavy-duty truck sector. We also
present the results of an analysis by the
Energy Information Administration
projecting the future use of natural gas
by heavy-duty trucks. Finally, we list a
number of potential technologies and
discuss the approaches that could be
pursued help to reduce the methane
emissions from natural gas trucks. A
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more detailed discussion of these
analyses and issues can be found in the
draft RIA.
A. Natural Gas Engine and Vehicle
Technology
Several engine parameters and
characteristics come into play in
comparing engines powered by natural
gas with engines powered by
conventional fuels.
Gasoline-fueled engines are typically
spark-ignition engines that rely on
stoichiometric combustion, which
means that essentially all the oxygen
from the engine’s intake air is consumed
in the combustion process. Converting a
gasoline-fueled engine to run on natural
gas involves changing the hardware
used to store and deliver fuel to the
engine, but the combustion strategy
remains largely unchanged. The engine
must be recalibrated for the different
fuel properties, but combustion remains
stoichiometric. In addition, the catalysts
may require significant changes to
enable the heavy-duty engine to comply
with the emission standards.
Diesel-fueled engines are
compression-ignition engines that rely
on lean-burn combustion, which means
that the engine takes in a substantial
quantity of excess air (oxygen) that is
not consumed in the combustion
process. Engines usually have
turbochargers to compress the intake air,
which allows for greater power output
and thermodynamic efficiency.
Converting a diesel-fueled engine to run
on natural gas may involve a minimal
set of changes to engine calibrations to
maintain lean-burn operation and the
overall operating characteristics of a
compression-ignition engine, although
there would be substantial changes to
the fuel storage and delivery systems.
This could require the use of a pilot
injection of a small amount of diesel
fuel to initiate the combustion event, or
more commonly, a mixture (never more
than 50 percent natural gas) of natural
gas and diesel fuel is combusted. It is
also possible to convert a diesel-fueled
engine to run on natural gas by adding
a spark plug and changing the
calibration strategy to rely on
stoichiometric combustion. This allows
for simpler engine design and operation,
but comes at a cost of higher fuel
consumption and CO2 emissions.
Engines running on natural gas are
capable of meeting the same criteria and
GHG emission standards that apply for
gasoline and diesel engines. In the case
of reducing PM and CO2 emissions,
there is an inherent advantage for
natural gas. In contrast, engines must be
properly calibrated and maintained to
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avoid high emission rates for NOX, HC,
and CO.
On-vehicle fuel storage for natural gas
is also an important design parameter.
The most common method today is
compressed natural gas (CNG), which
involves storing the fuel as a gas at very
high pressure (up to ∼3500 psi) to
increase the density of the fuel. This
increases vehicle weight and generally
reduces the range relative to gasoline or
diesel vehicles, but the technology is
readily available and does not involve
big changes for operators. The
alternative is to cool the fuel so that it
can be stored as liquefied natural gas
(LNG), which involves more extensive
hardware changes for managing the fuel
as a cryogenic liquid. LNG fuel storage
also involves a substantial weight
increase, but LNG has a higher density
than CNG so LNG vehicles can store
much more fuel than CNG vehicles in
the same volume. LNG technology is
available for a limited number of truck
models, mostly for line-haul service
where range is a paramount
consideration. The cryogenic fuel
requires substantial changes in
hardware and procedures for refueling
stations and operators. An additional
factor in considering LNG technology is
that a parked vehicle could vent the fuel
as it takes on heat from the surrounding
environment over a period of several
days.
B. GHG Lifecycle Analysis for Natural
Gas Vehicles
This section is organized into three
sections. The first section summarizes
the upstream emissions. The second
section summarizes the downstream
emissions. The last section summarizes
the results of the lifecycle emissions and
provides a comparison between natural
gas lifecycle and diesel fuel lifecycle
emissions. Only the overall results of
the lifecycle emissions comparison
between natural gas and diesel fuel are
presented here, much more detail is
provided in Chapter 13 of the DRIA.
(1) Upstream Emissions
Upstream methane emissions,
occurring in the natural gas production,
natural gas processing, transmission,
storage and distribution stages of natural
gas production, are estimated and
summarized in the annual EPA report
Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas
Emissions and Sinks (GHG Inventory)
for the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC). As a basis for estimating the
life-cycle impact of natural gas use by
heavy-duty trucks, we used the year
2012 methane emission estimates in the
most recent GHG Inventory, published
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in 2014. The GHG Inventory also
includes the quantity of carbon dioxide
which is coproduced with methane
throughout the natural gas system and
emitted to the atmosphere through
venting, flaring, and as fugitive
emissions.
The GHG Inventory is updated
annually to account for new emission
sources (e.g., new natural gas wells),
updated data, emission factors and/or
methodologies, and to account for
changes in emissions due to policy
changes, regulatory changes and
changes in industry practices. The GHG
Inventory reflects emission reductions
due to existing state regulations,
National Emission Standards for
Hazardous Air Pollutants (NESHAP)
promulgated by EPA in 1999, the New
Source Performance Standards (NSPS)
promulgated by EPA in 2012,793 and
Natural Gas Star (a flexible, voluntary
partnership that encourages oil and
natural gas companies to adopt proven,
cost-effective technologies and practices
that improve operational efficiency and
reduce methane emissions).794
Emission estimates in the GHG
Inventory are generally bottom-up
estimates which are per-unit
(compressor, pneumatic valve, etc.)
emission estimates based on measured
or calculated emission rates from such
emission sources.
In addition to the national-level data
available through the GHG Inventory,
facility-level petroleum and natural gas
systems data are also available through
EPA’s Greenhouse Gas Reporting
Program (GHGRP). This data represents
a significant step forward in
understanding GHG emissions from this
sector and EPA expects that this data
will be an important tool for the agency
and the public to analyze emissions,
and understand emission trends. For
some sources, EPA has already used
GHGRP data to update emission
estimates in the GHG inventory, and
EPA plans to continue to leverage
GHGRP data to update future GHG
Inventories.
The EPA-promulgated 2012 New
Source Performance Standards (NSPS)
will reduce emissions of ozone
precursors from natural gas facilities
and have methane and hazardous air
pollutant reduction co-benefits. The
NSPS standards require that natural gas
wells which are hydraulically fractured
control emissions using flaring or
reduced emission completion (REC)
793 Oil and Natural Gas Sector: New Source
Performance Standards and National Emission
Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants Reviews;
Final Rule, 40 CFR parts 60 and 63, Environmental
Protection Agency, August 16, 2012.
794 www.epa.gov/gasstar/.
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technology from completions and
workovers starting in 2012. RECs used
by natural gas well drillers capture the
natural gas emissions that occur during
well completion, instead of venting or
flaring the emissions. Starting January
2015, RECs are required for natural gas
well completions and workovers. The
NSPS also regulates the emissions from
certain new natural gas production
equipment, including dehydrator vents
and condensate tanks. In the 2013
Climate Action Plan, EPA projects
future emissions of methane to increase
modestly, by about 4 percent between
now and 2025. As estimated for the
recent power plant proposed
rulemaking, natural gas production is
expected to increase by about 20 percent
during this timeframe, thus, methane
emissions in 2025 are expected to be 14
percent lower than in 2012 based on an
equivalent volume of natural gas being
produced. As announced by the White
House, EPA will further regulate
methane emissions from new natural
gas production facilities.795 796
In the GHG Inventory, emissions
associated with powering the units or
equipment (i.e., compressors, pumps)
used in natural gas production,
processing, transmission and
distribution are aggregated with all the
other fossil fuel combustion activities.
Rather than attempt to disaggregate
those specific GHG emissions from the
rest of the process emissions in the GHG
Inventory, we instead used the
estimated emissions for these sources
provided by GREET.
(2) Downstream Emissions
Natural gas can be used by vehicles
either as a compressed gas (CNG) or as
liquefied natural gas (LNG). We discuss
the emissions of both below.
(a) Compressed Natural Gas (CNG)
The natural gas that comprises CNG is
typically off-loaded from the natural gas
system where the vehicles using CNG
are refueled. This is because the natural
gas used as CNG is compressed at the
retail stations that sell the CNG and the
fleet facilities which fuel the CNG fleet
vehicles. To get the natural gas to the
CNG retail facilities which are mostly
located in or near urban areas, the
natural gas is expected to be shipped
through the distribution system
downstream of the natural gas
795 FACT SHEET: Administration Takes Steps
Forward on Climate Action Plan Announcing
Actions to Cut Methane Emissions, The White
House, January 14, 2015.
796 FACT SHEET; EPA’s Strategy for Reducing
Methane and Ozone-Forming Pollution from the Oil
and Natural Gas Industry; Environmental Protection
Agency, January 14, 2015.
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transmission system. CNG trucks are
then refueled at the retail stations
providing CNG. Each time a CNG
refueling event occurs, a small amount
of natural gas is released to the
environment. Because of a lack of data
or an estimate by GREET or CARB, this
small amount of natural gas has not
been estimated and therefore are not
included in the lifecycle analysis
presented here. Since these systems are
designed to have no leaks, the CNG
could remain stored in the CNG tanks
indefinitely. However, the very high
pressure at which CNG is stored
dramatically increases fugitive
emissions if a fitting were to develop a
leak. The level of fugitive emissions for
a certain sized hole is directly
proportional to the pressure. We do not
have any data on the fugitive emissions
from CNG trucks. In our lifecycle
analysis, we assume that CNG fugitive
emissions are zero, which likely
underestimates the methane emissions.
When CNG is stored at high pressure
(i.e., 3600 psi) it contains only about 25
percent the energy density of diesel fuel.
This low fuel storage density is a
disincentive for using CNG in long haul
trucks. An adsorbent for natural gas
(ANG),797 called metal organic
framework (MOF) for storing CNG, has
been invented and is being tested for
large scale use. The technology involves
filling the CNG tank with a specially
designed substance that looks similar to
a pelletized catalyst. The substance
establishes a matrix which causes the
methane molecules to become better
organized and store the same quantity of
natural gas in a smaller volume at the
same pressure (about 60 percent of the
energy density of diesel fuel), or store
the same density of natural gas at a
lower pressure. This MOF could
improve the energy density of CNG
which would make it a better candidate
for natural gas storage for long range
combination trucks. Or, if used to store
CNG at the same density, could reduce
the compression energy required to
compress the CNG since it could be
stored at a lower pressure.
(b) Liquified Natural Gas (LNG)
A primary reason for liquefying
natural gas is that it allows storing the
natural gas at about 60 percent of the
density of diesel fuel. For this reason,
LNG is a primary fuel being considered
by long haul trucks.
797 Menon, V.C., Komarneni, S. 1998 ‘‘Porous
Adsorbents for Vehicular Natural Gas Storage: A
Review’’, Journal of Porous Materials 5, 43–58
(1998); Burchell, T ‘‘Carbon Fiber Composite
Adsorbent Media for Low Pressure Natural Gas
Storage’’ Oak Ridge National Laboratory.
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The first step downstream of the
natural gas production, processing and
distribution system for making LNG
available to trucks is the liquefaction
step. This step involves the removal of
heat from the natural gas until it
undergoes a phase change from a gas to
a liquid at a low pressure. LNG plants
are configured depending on their
ultimate capacity. World class LNG
plants produce 5 million metric tons, or
more, per year of LNG and the economy
of scale of these large plants supports
the significant addition of capital to
reduce their operating costs and energy
use. An LNG plant solely producing
LNG for truck fuel is expected to be
significantly smaller than the world
class LNG export plants with a poorer
economy of scale. Their energy
efficiency would be expected to be
much lower on a percentage basis. The
California Air Resources Board
estimates the liquefaction plants used
for producing truck LNG fuel are 80
percent efficient, compared to 90
percent efficient for world class LNG
plants.798 In our lifecycle analysis of
LNG as a truck fuel, we also assumed
that LNG plants are 80 percent efficient.
The LNG producer is not only
responsible for the LNG fugitive
emissions at the plant, but it is also
responsible for the GHG and other
process emissions emitted when
liquefying the natural gas. Because LNG
plants are located separate from the
retail facilities, they can be located to
access the lowest cost feedstock. This
means the natural gas for LNG can be
sourced from the larger natural gas
transmission pipelines which are
upstream of the distribution pipelines.
Once the natural gas is liquefied at the
liquefaction plant, it is stored in an
insulated storage tank to keep the LNG
liquefied.
To transport the LNG to the retail
station, the LNG is loaded into an
insulated horizontal trailer designed
specifically for transporting LNG. If the
LNG in the truck trailer were to warm
sufficiently to cause the LNG to reach
the pressure relief valve venting
pressure, there would be boil-off
emissions from the truck trailer.
However, since the LNG is super cooled,
boil off events are likely to be rare. We
did not have access to any specific data
to estimate these emissions so we used
a CARB estimate of boil-off emissions
for LNG transportation by the tanker
798 Detailed California-Modified GREET Pathway
for Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) from North American
and Remote Natural Gas Sources, Version 1.0,
California Air Resources Board, July 20, 2009.
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truck between the LNG plant and retail
outlets.799
LNG is stored in an insulated storage
tank at the retail facility. Heat gain in
the storage tank could eventually lead to
boil-off emissions. Service stations with
little LNG demand are at a higher risk
of boil-off emissions compared to
service stations which have a significant
throughput volume. LNG stations could
be configured to avoid boil-off events to
the atmosphere, such as venting to a colocated CNG facility, or venting to a
nearby natural gas pipeline. We did not
have access to any specific data to
estimate these emissions so we used a
CARB emission estimates for the boil-off
emissions from LNG retail facilities.800
Vehicles requiring LNG fuel drive up
to an LNG retail outlet or fleet refueling
facility and fill up with LNG fuel. When
the refueling nozzle is disconnected
from the LNG tank nozzle, a small
amount of methane is released to the
environment. In addition, it may be
necessary prior to refueling, due to high
pressure in the truck’s LNG tank, to
reduce the pressure in the truck’s LNG
tank to speed up the refueling process.
In some cases the retail station is
equipped with another hose and
associated piping to vent the excess gas
to the retail stations’ storage tank where
it would usually condense back to a
liquid due to the lower temperature of
that tank, or perhaps be vented to a
natural gas pipeline. However, for those
retail outlets without such vent lines to
the storage tank, the truck driver may
simply vent the truck’s storage tank to
the atmosphere. As part of a sensitivity
analysis for our lifecycle analysis, we
estimate the emissions for venting an
LNG tank prior to refueling.
(c) Comparing CNG to LNG
There is an important difference in
providing CNG and LNG which is
important to highlight. For making CNG
available to trucks, only a single facility,
the retail outlet, is required for
distributing CNG, while LNG requires
both a liquefaction plant and a retail
outlet and a means for transporting the
LNG from the liquefaction plant to
retail. Relying on a single facility
simplifies the logistics of providing
CNG and reduces the opportunity for
methane leakage to the environment.
However, this emissions disadvantage of
LNG compared to CNG is offset
somewhat because LNG is expected to
access the lower priced natural gas from
the upstream transmission system,
therefore, the methane emissions
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800 Ibid.
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associated with the downstream natural
gas distribution system are avoided.
(d) Vehicle Emissions
There are several different ways that
diesel heavy duty engines can be
configured to use natural gas as a fuel.
The first is a spark ignition natural gas
(SING), Otto cycle SING heavy duty
engine burns the fuel stoichiometrically
and uses a three-way catalyst, and some
also add an oxidation catalyst to provide
the greatest emissions reduction. In this
case the engine compression ratio is
reduced similar to that of a gasoline
engine and thus its thermal efficiency is
lower than a diesel-like engine by about
10–15 percent.
The second is a direct injection
natural gas (DING), diesel cycle. The
DING engine uses a small quantity of
diesel fuel (pilot injection) or a glow
plug as ignition sources. As the
injection system for the diesel fuel does
not have the capability of greater
injection quantities, this option has no
dual-fuel properties. On the other hand,
an optimization of the pilot injection
can be made to achieve lower emissions.
An advanced high pressure direct
injection (HPDI) fuel system combining
the injection of both diesel fuel and
natural gas can be used for lean burn
combustion. This enables the engine to
maintain the efficiency advantage of a
compression ignition engine while
running mainly CNG/LNG.
The third is a mixed-fuel natural gas
(MFNG), diesel cycle. In a mixed-fuel
engine, natural gas is mixed with intake
air before induction to the cylinder and
diesel fuel is used as ignition source.
Mixed-fuel vehicle/engine means any
vehicle/engine engineered and designed
to be operated on the original fuel(s), or
a mixture of two or more fuels that are
combusted together. Engine results
showed that the efficiency of the engine
could decrease by about 2–5 percent in
mixed-fuel mode compared to diesel
mode and that the diesel replacement
was approximately 40–60 percent.
Each of these natural gas engine types
has its merits. The SING engine is less
costly, but is less fuel efficient and
because of the lower compression ratio
it has less torque than the two diesel
cycle engines. The DING engine is likely
the most expensive because of the
special natural gas/diesel fuel injection
system and large required amount of
natural gas (LNG or CNG) storage since
the truck must run on natural gas.
However, because the truck can run
almost completely on natural gas, the
DING engine has the potential to more
quickly pay down the higher investment
cost of the natural gas truck. The MFNG
engine provides the truck owner the
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flexibility to operate on natural gas or
diesel fuel, but at the expense of a
slower natural gas investment pay down
rate because it can operate at most 50
percent of the time on natural gas.
When assessing the methane
emissions from both CNG and LNG
trucks, it is important to separate those
trucks built or converted before 2014 to
those built or converted in 2014 and
later. The trucks built before 2014 only
needed to meet a nonmethane
hydrocarbon (NMHC) standard, which
means that the methane emissions from
these trucks are unregulated. Our
certification data show that the methane
tailpipe emissions from these trucks/
buses ranges from 2–5 g/bhp-hr for both
spark ignition (gasoline type) and
compression ignition (diesel type)
engines.
For 2014 and later OEM compression
ignition natural gas trucks or natural gas
conversions of 2014 and later diesel
trucks, the trucks must meet a 0.1 g/
bhp-hr methane emission standard in
the case of a larger truck engine tested
with an engine dynamometer, and a
0.05 g/mile methane emission standard
in the case of smaller trucks tested on
a chassis dynamometer. For spark
ignition (gasoline style) engines, the
standards take effect in 2016.801 Natural
gas truck manufacturers are allowed to
offset methane emissions exceeding the
methane emission standard by
converting the methane emission
exceedances into CO2 equivalent
emissions and using CO2 credits. For the
initial natural gas engine certifications
that EPA received for 2014, the truck
manufactures chose to continue to emit
high levels of methane (around 2 g/bhphr) and use carbon dioxide credits to
offset those emissions. We don’t know
if this practice of will continue in the
future, however, for evaluating the
lifecycle impacts of natural gas heavyduty trucks, the 2014 and later natural
gas heavy-duty trucks may in fact have
an emissions profile more like the pre2014 trucks and not like the 2014 and
later trucks as depicted below in the
figures. It is worth noting that the
potential exists for deterioration or
malfunction of the engines, fuel
supplies, or associated emission control
devices on these trucks to occur in such
a manner to result in higher methane
emissions in actual use. We have not
specifically accounted for the potential
for increased methane emissions caused
from high emitter natural gas trucks. See
generally Section II above.
801 See 76 FR 57192, 40 CFR 1036.108(a)(2) and
1037.104(c) (which is proposed to be redesignated
as 40 CFR 86.189–14(k)(5)).
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The crankcase of these engines
receives leakage from across the piston
rings, which can contain methane. The
crankcase of the spark ignition engines
is normally vented into the intake of the
engines, thus, any methane emissions
from the crankcase which is not
combusted in the engine would be
accounted for in the tailpipe emissions.
For compression ignition engines,
however, the crankcase emissions are
allowed to be vented into the exhaust
pipe downstream of the aftertreatment
devices, and therefore the crankcase
emissions are released to the
atmosphere even though they are
included in the emissions test for the
Methane standard that was introduced
in Phase 1 on the rule. Another
potential source of methane emissions
from CNG and LNG trucks is fugitive
emissions from the engine and the
piping which routes the fuel to the
engine. Thus, either while parked or
operated, this part of the vehicle fuel
and engine systems could leak methane
to the environment (which is different
from boil-off emissions from LNG trucks
discussed below). We do not have data
nor did we develop an estimate for these
potential fugitive emissions from these
types of in-use leaks. If the natural gas
vehicles are well maintained, these
emissions are likely to be very low.
The thermal efficiency (the ratio of
energy converted to work versus energy
consumed) of the natural gas engine also
plays a role in the lifecycle emissions of
the truck. Natural gas engines are
generally less efficient than their
gasoline and diesel counterparts.
Furthermore, manufacturers choose to
produce spark-ignition stoichiometric
natural gas engines for use in diesel
applications. Spark-ignition natural gas
engines can be as much as 15 percent
less efficient than compressed ignition
engines which operate on diesel fuel. In
our lifecycle analysis, we provide two
different sensitivities for natural gas
vehicles assuming that they may be 5
percent and 15 percent less efficient.
An important difference between CNG
and LNG is way in which the fuels are
stored on the vehicle. The CNG is
contained in a sealed system while the
LNG system is ultimately open to the
environment. Providing that there are
no leaks in the storage system, the CNG
truck is inherently low (zero) emitting
and a parked truck would contain the
CNG indefinitely. An LNG truck is
inherently high emitting since if the
truck were to be parked long enough its
entire contents would be emitted to the
environment.
Thus, a major GHG issue for LNG
trucks is boil-off emissions from the
truck’s fuel storage systems. When the
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liquefied natural gas is pumped into the
truck LNG tanks, it is ‘‘supercooled,’’
meaning that the pressure of the LNG is
well below the pressure at which the
natural gas vent valve would relieve the
LNG pressure. If the truck is driven
extensively, the drawdown of liquid
level will cause a vacuum which will
cause some of the fuel to boil off and the
heat of vaporization would thus cool the
rest of the liquid in the LNG storage
tank. It is possible that the fuel would
maintain its supercooled temperature,
or possibly even cool further below its
supercooled temperature, the entire
time until the LNG is completely
consumed.
If the truck is not driven at all or is
driven very little, the very low
temperature and low pressure LNG
warms due to the ambient temperature
gradient through the tank wall, and
vaporizes, causing the temperature and
pressure of the LNG to rise. When the
pressure reaches a maximum of 230 psi
a safety release valve releases the
methane gas to vent excess pressure.
There are two industry standards used
to design tanks to reduce the
temperature increase, one for a 3 day
hold time 802 and one for a 5 day hold
time.803 Hold time is the time elapsed
between the LNG refueling and venting.
If there is a boil-off event, a large
amount of methane would be released.
If aware of the impending boil-off, such
as when the truck is being maintained,
the truck driver could hook up the LNG
tank to a hose which would vent the
natural gas emissions to a CNG system
which could reuse the boil-off natural
gas as CNG, or vent the natural gas
emission to a natural gas pipeline.
Otherwise the boil-off emission would
simply vent to the atmosphere. If the
truck had 200 gallons of LNG storage
capacity, the estimated quantity of boiloff emissions would range from 3 to 9
gallons of LNG for each boil off event
depending on the fill level of the LNG
tank. Each boil off event has the
potential to release on the order of
5,300–15,800 grams of CH4 which
equates to 132–400K grams of CO2
equivalent emissions, assuming that
methane has a global warming potential
(GWP) of 25 (assessed over 100 years).
If the vehicle continues to sit for five
more days and boil-off events occur
each day to several times per day as the
tank vents and rebuilds in pressure, the
sum total of the boil-off events can
802 National Fire Protection Association 52,
Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) Vehicular Fuel
System Code, 2002 Edition.
803 SAE International (2008) SAE J2343:
Recommended Practice for LNG Medium and
Heavy-Duty Powered Vehicles. Warrendale,
Pennsylvania.
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heavy-duty vehicles, we assessed
several different scenarios. The first is a
conversion of a diesel engine to use
compressed natural gas. Of the tens of
thousands of heavy-duty natural gas
trucks currently in use, over 90 percent
are of this type. These are conversions
of older trucks so they are not regulated
by the 2014 methane standard. For
future year heavy-duty trucks, we also
estimated the lifecycle emissions if the
trucks were meeting a 0.1 g/bhp-hr or a
0.05 g/mile methane tailpipe standard.
We provide two sensitivities to capture
the lower thermal efficiencies of natural
gas trucks: 5 percent less thermally
efficient (thermal low) and 15 percent
less energy efficient (thermal high,
which is 10 percent worse thermal
efficiency than the 5 percent less
thermally efficient case). The relative
life cycle assessment is shown in Figure
XI–1.
The first two bars of Figure XI–1 show
that based solely on CO2 tailpipe
emissions (with and without thermal
efficiency adjustments and assuming no
increased methane emissions at the
truck), CNG trucks are estimated to emit
about 20 percent less GHG emissions
than diesel engines. But this advantage
decreases if the natural gas engine is
less thermally efficient. The three full
lifecycle analyses represented by the
right three bars in the figure show that
pre-2014 CNG trucks are estimated to
emit less GHG emissions as diesel
trucks, although if their thermal
efficiency is much lower (15 percent
less than the diesel fueled engine) they
could emit about the same GHG
emissions. When such trucks are
complying with the 2014 and later
methane emission standards, their
methane emissions are much lower and
these trucks are expected to be lower
emitting than diesels, even if they are
less thermally efficient.
The second scenario presented in
Figure X1–2 is a combination LNG truck
804 These global warming potential values are
based on the Fourth Assessment Report authored by
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
805 Conversation with Timothy J. Skone P.E.,
National Energy Technology Laboratory,
Department of Energy, June 2014.
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(3) Results of Life Cycle Analysis
To estimate the lifecycle impact of
natural gas used by heavy-duty trucks,
we totaled the carbon dioxide, methane
(CH4) and the nitrous oxide (N2O)
emissions for the upstream and
downstream portions of the natural gas
system. The methane and nitrous oxide
emissions are converted to carbon
dioxide-equivalent emissions using the
appropriate GWP conversion factors.
The GWP conversion factors EPA
currently uses are for a 100-year
timeframe, are 25 and 298 for methane
and nitrous oxide, respectively.804
To establish the impacts of natural gas
use in the heavy-duty fleet, it was
necessary to compare the lifecycle
impacts of natural gas against the base
fuel it is replacing, which is diesel fuel.
The lifecycle impact of diesel fuel was
estimated by the National Energy
Technology Laboratory (NETL) for the
production and use of diesel fuel in
2005. EPA used this lifecycle
assessment for the 2010 Renewable Fuel
Standard Rulemaking and we are using
this NETL diesel fuel lifecycle estimate
as the reference for comparison with the
natural gas lifecycle assessment. NETL
is in the process of revising its lifecycle
analysis of diesel fuel to 2009, which
should be available sometime in 2015.
According to the lead analyst, the 2009
lifecycle analysis appears to be similar
in magnitude to the 2005 analysis.805
However, the 2009 analysis will not
capture the lifecycle effects of the large
increase in hydraulically fractured
crude oil (i.e., Bakken, Eagle Ford)
which has occurred in the U.S. during
the first part of this decade.
To illustrate the relative full lifecycle
impact of natural gas-fueled heavy-duty
vehicles compared to diesel fueled
result in over a million grams of CO2equivalent emissions.
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to refueling and boil off emissions. In
the LNG average case, we assume a
modest quantity of refueling and boil-off
methane emissions which is estimated
by GREET. The second boil-off emission
estimate (assumed to be complying with
the 2014 methane emission standard) is
based on venting the LNG storage tank
to the atmosphere each time the driver
refills his tank, and one LNG boil-off
event between each time the driver must
refuel his tank. As discussed above, we
do not expect such high refueling and
boil-off emissions to be common
practices for newer trucks that are
operated regularly. However, as the use
of these trucks decreases as they age and
are sold into the secondary market, the
risk for refueling and boil-off emission
events increases—this estimate provides
a simple sensitivity emission estimate.
The lifecycle assessment is shown in
Figure XI–2.
Figure XI–2 shows that LNG trucks
have about the same greenhouse gas
footprint as diesel trucks providing that
they are complying with the methane
emission standard and providing we
assume a low quantity of refueling and
boil-off emissions. In comparing CNG to
LNG, the LNG trucks appear higher
emitting than CNG trucks because of the
low thermal efficiency of the small
liquefaction facilities. If these LNG
trucks emit high levels of methane when
refueling and by experiencing boil-off
events or if they emit methane at pre2014 emission standard levels, their
GHG emissions can potentially be much
greater than that from diesel trucks.
It is important to point out the
uncertainties associated with the
lifecycle estimates provided in the
above figures. As discussed above, there
is uncertainty in both the upstream and
downstream methane emission
estimates for natural gas facilities and
equipment, and the trucks that consume
natural gas. There is also uncertainty in
the diesel fuel lifecycle analysis
conducted by NETL. As new
information becomes available, we can
update our lifecycle emission estimates
which would reduce the uncertainty of
this analysis. A number of studies are
being conducted to quantify the
methane emissions (upstream and
downstream) and life cycle impacts of
natural gas by the Environmental
Defense Fund (EDF). The final reports
for these studies have not yet been
released but we will review them once
they are available. Finally, the lifecycle
analysis is sensitive to the GWP factor
used to assess methane and nitrous
oxide, and if a different GWP value were
to be used, it would affect the relative
lifecycle impact of natural gas relative to
diesel in heavy-duty trucks (see Chapter
13 of the draft RIA for sensitivity
analyses regarding upstream methane
emissions and the use of different GWP
factors).
We compared our lifecycle emission
estimates for natural gas, relative to
diesel fuel, with the estimates provided
by the California Air Resources Board
(CARB) for its Low Carbon Fuel
Standard (LCFS). For our emissions
estimate used in the comparison we
used the carbon dioxide-equivalent (CO2
eq) emissions estimated for 2014 and
later engines, which must comply with
a methane tailpipe emissions standard,
and assumed that the engine was 5
percent less thermally efficient than a
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which in one case is assumed to be
emitting methane at pre-2014 emission
standards and in another case is
assumed to comply with the 2014
methane standard. It is an OEM natural
gas truck with a high pressure direct
injection engine, and because of the
extensive mileage, the truck most
realistically would use LNG as a fuel to
provide the necessary range for the
dedicated natural gas engine. We make
two different assumptions with respect
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comparable diesel engine. For the CARB
emissions estimates, we used the
estimates made for illustrative purposes
using the 2013 version of the CARB
GREET model as published in August,
2014.806 807 CARB estimates that CNG
engines emit 76 percent of the CO2 eq
emissions as a diesel truck, while our
analysis estimates that CNG engines
emit 81 percent of the CO2 eq emissions
as a diesel truck. The most likely
explanation for CARB’s lower estimated
CO2 eq emissions for CNG engines is
that a much larger portion of the
electricity used to compress natural gas
is renewable in California than the rest
of the country. CARB estimates LNG
engines emit 94.5 percent of the CO2 eq
emissions as a diesel truck while our
analysis estimates LNG trucks emit 96
percent of the CO2 eq emissions as a
diesel truck. CARB assumes no boil-off
or venting emissions for LNG trucks and
for this comparison, we used our more
modest boil-off and venting assumption,
as described above, which is close to
CARB’s. Overall, our estimates are very
similar to those estimated by CARB and
when there are differences, the
differences are as expected.
A UC Davis report recently released
estimated that CNG and LNG trucks
using spark ignition engines (SING) emit
about the same amount of CO2
-equivalent emissions, and these
emissions are slightly higher than that
of diesel engines.808 The HPDI engines
(DING) fueled by LNG are estimated to
be the lowest emitting of the several
scenarios analyzed by the study.
Because the study did not discuss
vehicle boil-off emissions, it is likely
that the study either assumed that these
emissions are zero or assumed the
default vehicle boil-off emission
estimates made by GREET. It is likely
that the study assumed that the
liquefaction plants are 90 percent
efficient as this is the default
806 Low Carbon Fuel Standard Reconsideration:
CA–GREET Model Update, California Air Resources
Board, August 22, 2014.
807 Per Anthy Alexiades of CARB: CARB is
planning to propose a new draft lifecycle analysis
for CNG and LNG trucks at an April 2015 public
meeting. While the CNG lifecycle GHG emissions
are expected to be about the same, the LNG lifecycle
emissions are expected to be lower based on using
a 90% efficiency for liquefaction plants instead of
the 80% efficiency that CARB was using previously.
Lifecycle emissions for both CNG and LNG trucks
will be adjusted to be 10% higher if using a spark
ignition engine to account for their lower thermal
efficiency. These estimates are solely for
hypothetical analyses. LCFS credits are awarded
based on GHG emissions for each specific
application.
808 Jaffe, Amy Myers, Exploring the role of
Natural Gas in U.S. Trucking, NextSTEPS Program,
UC Davis Institute of Transportation Studies,
February 18, 2015.
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assumption in GREET, which leads to
lower GHG emissions by LNG trucks.
C. Projected Use of LNG and CNG
We reviewed several sources to
estimate how much natural gas is
currently being used and is projected to
be used by heavy-duty trucks.
Projections for this emerging technology
range from 7 percent of new heavy-duty
vehicle sales to over 40 percent by 2040.
Large uncertainties exist even since the
2014 NAS First Report was written.809
Among the range of projections we
assessed, that produced by the Energy
Information Administration (EIA)
seemed the most credible for capturing
recent trends, and for projecting future
natural gas use by heavy-duty trucks.
There are several factors that support
this assessment.
First, in its 2014 Annual Energy
Outlook, EIA estimates that natural gas
fueled 0.4 percent of the energy use of
heavy-duty trucks in 2014. This
estimate is consistent with the fraction
of the heavy-duty fleet which is fueled
by natural gas as estimated by the
industry.810 Conversely, other studies
referenced by the NAS report assume
that current use is already about 2
percent (the DRIA contains more
discussion about these other
projections).
Second, the EIA projection is based
on an economic analysis which
considers the increased cost of
manufacturing a natural gas truck over
a diesel truck, the fuel savings for using
natural gas instead of diesel fuel, and
whether the payback time of the fuel
savings against the increased truck cost
would result in purchases of natural gas
trucks. As part of this analysis, EIA
assumes that lighter heavy-duty trucks
would use CNG, which is a lower cost
technology suited for the shorter driving
distances for these trucks. The long haul
trucks, however, require larger on-board
stores of fuel to extend the driving range
which is satisfied by storing the natural
gas as a liquid. LNG has about 60
percent of the energy density of diesel
fuel, compared to CNG which has only
25 percent of the energy density of
diesel fuel. To satisfy the long driving
range of the long haul trucks, EIA
assumed that they would use LNG as a
fuel. The assumptions used by EIA for
conducting its economic analysis all
seem reasonable.
809 B. Tita, Slow Going for Natural-Gas Powered
Trucks; Wall Street Journal, 8/26/2014.
810 NGV America estimates that there are 62,000
natural gas fueled heavy-duty trucks and buses
operating in the U.S. out of a total of 12.3 million
heavy-duty trucks and buses operating in the U.S.,
which equates to 0.5%.
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Third, EIA is one of the several
organizations in the world which
collects fuel pricing data and projects
future fuel prices using a sophisticated
modeling platform. One of the most
important assumptions in projecting the
future use of natural gas in the
transportation sector is the relative price
of natural gas to the price of diesel fuel.
In 2014, the natural gas price purchased
by industrial users was about $6 per
million BTU. The price of crude oil has
been volatile during 2014 as the Brent
crude oil price started at about $110 per
barrel, but decreased to under $50 per
barrel. From EIA’s Web site, the average
retail diesel fuel price in the first part
of 2014 was about $3.80 cents per
gallon. When comparing the natural gas
spot market price on a diesel equivalent
basis to the diesel fuel price, it appears
that natural gas is priced about one
quarter of the diesel fuel price.
However, if used as compressed natural
gas, the natural gas must be distributed
through smaller distribution pipeline
system that exists in cities, which
increases the price of the natural gas.
Then the natural gas must be
compressed and stored at a retail outlet,
and then dispensed to CNG trucks. The
estimated retail price of CNG is $2.35 on
a diesel gallon equivalent (DGE) basis,
or about $1.45 DGE less than diesel fuel.
LNG plants are assumed to be located
close to large transmission pipelines
away from cities, thus, it is sourced
from lower cost natural gas. However,
for producing LNG, the natural gas must
be liquefied, shipped to retail outlets,
stored and then dispensed to LNG
trucks. These steps add substantially to
the price of the LNG and the estimated
retail price of LNG is $2.65 DGE, or
$1.15 DGE less than diesel fuel.
In its 2014 AEO projections, EIA
estimates that crude oil prices in the
upcoming years will decline modestly
until after 2020 when they start
increasing until they reach $140/bbl in
2040. Natural gas prices are expected to
only slightly increase over this period.
Fifth, the assumptions regarding
payback used by EIA seemed
reasonable. EIA projects that natural gas
trucks begin to be purchased when the
payback times are 4 years or less based
on a survey conducted by the American
Trucking Association. This is consistent
with conversations the agencies have
had with some fleet owners. Since EIA
does not report the payback times as an
output of its projections, it is useful to
understand payback times. The 2014
NAS Phase 2 First Report cites the
payback for the extra cost of natural gas
trucks as 2 years, but other sources
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report a longer return closer to 4
years.811
EPA assessed the time required for the
lower fuel cost of CNG and LNG to
payback the incremental truck cost of
using LNG and CNG. The CNG tank plus
fuel weighs on the order of four times
as much as the diesel counterpart, and
typically adds $40,000–$50,000 to the
cost of a heavy-duty truck. In 2014, we
estimated the payback time to be over 5
years when we assessed the payback at
the higher crude oil prices at the
beginning of the year. The payback rates
would be even higher if we would have
assessed the payback rates at the end of
the year when the crude oil prices were
much lower. However, for many fleets,
even the payback rates at the higher
crude oil prices would not be
sufficiently attractive, and generally
explains the low penetration of natural
gas in the heavy-duty sector today. It
appears that when the payoff time is
longer than 4 years, few fleets are
interested in purchasing natural gas
trucks without subsidies to compensate
for the higher purchase price of natural
gas trucks. According to EIA, half the
natural gas consumption by cars and
trucks is in California, a state that
subsidizes the purchase price of natural
gas vehicles, and also subsidizes the
cost of natural gas dispensing stations.
The Low Carbon Fuel Standard in place
in California also incentivizes natural
gas use because natural gas is
considered to cause less of an impact on
the climate than petroleum-based
gasoline and diesel fuel.812 The majority
of the other half of the NG fleet resides
in states which subsidize the cost of
using natural gas by motor vehicles.
Based on the EIA projections for
crude oil and natural gas prices, the
payoff time of LNG trucks is expected to
remain long (more than 5 years) until
sometime after 2020 when crude oil
prices are projected to begin increasing.
Thus, natural gas use by heavy-duty
trucks is not projected by EIA to
increase above 1 percent of the heavyduty fuel demand until after 2025.
If the apparent payback time for CNG
and LNG trucks use is favorable to fleet
owners, fuel availability could still slow
the transition to CNG and LNG. This is
because CNG and LNG availability at
service stations is currently 1 percent or
less of the availability of gasoline and
811 Early LNG Adopters Experience Mixed
Results; Truck News, October 1, 2013.
812 CARB currently estimates for the LCFS that
CNG and LNG trucks reduce GHG-equivalent
emissions by 32% and 17%, respectively, compared
to gasoline and diesel fuel. In August 2014, CARB
proposed reducing the GHG-equivalent benefit of
CNG and LNG trucks to 22% and 3%, respectively,
compared to gasoline and diesel fuel.
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diesel fuel and therefore not available
for most fleets. LNG availability is
particularly challenging because in
addition to an LNG service station, a
LNG liquefaction plant would be
needed as well.
To the extent that natural gas
displaces diesel fuel and impacts truck
greenhouse gas emissions, either
positive or negative, there would be
little impact on overall greenhouse gas
emissions because of the low natural gas
truck sales that are expected to occur
over the next decade. The low natural
gas use by the heavy-duty sector during
the Phase 2 timeframe will give us time
to learn more about both upstream and
downstream methane emissions to gain
a better understanding of the lifecycle
impacts of natural gas use by heavyduty trucks. It will allow us more time
to consider the best additional steps to
take to further reduce upstream and
downstream methane emissions to
improve the lifecycle impacts of natural
gas use by heavy-duty trucks should the
heavy duty truck fleet begin consuming
natural gas in much larger quantities.
related to recirculating crankcase gases
with high PM emissions back into the
engine’s air intake. Natural gas engines
have inherently low PM emissions, so
there is no technological limitation that
would prevent manufacturers from
closing the crankcase and recirculating
all crankcase gases into the engine’s air
intake. The methane standard that was
introduced in Phase 1 of this rule
accounts for crankcase emissions, but
when the system is sealed and
emissions are routed to the engine
intake, those emissions will be
considered in determining the
deterioration factor. See the Preamble
Section II. D. for a description of the
proposed closed crankcase requirement
for natural gas fueled engines. This
requirement would apply to the
manufacturer responsible for criteria
emission compliance: The vehicle
manufacturer for complete pickups and
vans, and the engine manufacturers for
all other vehicles.
D. Natural Gas Emission Control
Measures
As interest in the potential use of
natural gas as a heavy-duty fuel has
increased, industry has begun to
investigate how to improve the overall
emission performance of natural gas
vehicles, especially with respect to
reducing methane leaks. EPA is
proposing two control measures which
are discussed in Section XI. There are
additional items discussed in Section
XI. D. (2) on which we request
comment. Included in this list are
several control options.
Boil-off emissions from LNG vehicles
were not addressed in the Phase 1
rulemaking. As more testing has been
done in this area since that time for this
rising issue, as described in the
Preamble Section XII, EPA is proposing
to require manufacturers to follow
current industry recommended practice,
SAE J2343 for five day hold time to
limit boil-off emissions from LNG
vehicles. The specifications of this
safety related standard has an effect
which helps new LNG vehicles prevent
boil-off. This SAE standard will only
affect new LNG vehicles. It will not
address aging vehicles as their
insulating properties diminish such as
loosing vacuum over time and may
eventually result in much shorter hold
times.813
EPA proposes to require the certificate
holder for the chassis to also comply
with the proposed requirements for LNG
fuel systems, but to apply the delegated
assembly and secondary manufacturer
allowances for these requirements. We
request comment on this approach
generally, as well as on:
• The need for additional
requirements for manufacturers not
holding certificates, such as requiring
that fuel system manufacturers
participate in recalls for defects in their
components.
• The appropriateness of requiring or
allowing separate certification of fuel
(1) Proposed Control Measures
As is discussed earlier in this
preamble in Sections II and XIII. EPA is
proposing some control measures to
reduce potential methane emissions
from natural gas vehicles. These are
summarized here. Note that since these
controls are being proposed to address
GHG emissions rather than fuel
consumption, NHTSA is not proposing
equivalent requirements.
(a) Proposed Closed Crankcase
Requirement for NG Fueled Engines and
Vehicles
EPA is proposing to require that all
natural gas engines have closed
crankcases, rather than continuing the
provision that allows compressionignition engines to separately measure
and account for crankcase emissions
that are vented to the atmosphere. This
allowance has historically been in place
to account for the technical limitations
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(b) Proposal To Require 5 Day Hold
Time for LNG Vehicles
813 The LNG storage tanks achieve some of their
insulating properties due to a vacuum created
between the two walls of the double-walled LNG
storage tank.
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systems (or similar provisions) where
they are installed by manufacturers not
holding the certificate for the chassis
with respect to CO2 and fuel
consumption.
(2) Additional Natural Gas Topics for
Comment
In this section we request comment
on several additional areas related to
potential regulatory requirements for
natural gas fueled vehicles. See Chapter
13 of the Draft RIA for additional details
on these topics.
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(a) Request for Comment on Changing
Global Warming Potential Values in the
Credit Program for CH4 (See Also
Preamble Section II.(D)(5)(b))
The phase 1 heavy-duty vehicle
rulemaking establishing greenhouse gas
emission standards included a
compliance alternative allowing heavyduty manufacturers and conversion
companies to comply with the
respective methane or nitrous oxide
standards by means of over-complying
with CO2 standards (40 CFR 85.525).
The heavy-duty rules allow averaging
only between vehicles or engines of the
same designated type (referred to as an
‘‘averaging set’’ in the rules).
Specifically, the phase 1 heavy-duty
rulemaking added a CO2 credits
program which allowed heavy-duty
manufacturers to average and bank
pollutant emissions to comply with the
methane and nitrous oxide requirements
after adjusting the CO2 emission credits
(generated from the same averaging set)
based on the relative GHG equivalents.
To establish the GHG equivalents used
by the CO2 credits program, the phase
1 heavy-duty vehicle rulemaking
incorporated the IPCC Fourth
Assessment Report global warming
potential (GWP) values of 25 for CH4
and 298 for N2O, which are assessed
over a 100 year lifetime.
Since the Phase 1 rule was finalized,
a new IPCC report has been released
(the Fifth Assessment Report), with new
GWP estimates. This is prompting us to
look again at the relative CO2
equivalency of methane and to seek
comment on whether the methane GWP
used to establish the GHG equivalency
value for the CO2 Credit program should
be updated to those established by IPCC
in its Fifth Assessment Report. The Fifth
Assessment Report provides four 100
year GWPs for methane ranging from 28
to 36. Therefore, we not only request
comment on whether to update the
GWP for methane to that of the Fifth
Assessment Report, but also on which
value to use from this report.
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(b) Request for Comment on
Appropriate Deterioration Factors for
NG Tailpipe Emissions
The current assigned deterioration
factors for CO2, N2O, and CH4 are based
on diesel technology. While EPA still
believes this is likely appropriate, we
would welcome data to support this
policy or other comments on how
appropriate these factors are applied to
NG engines and vehicles.
(c) Request for Comment on LNG
Vehicle Boil-Off Warning System
A simple means to help limit boil-off
emissions would be to require that
natural gas truck drivers be alerted to
expected near-future boil-off events.
Such an alert could be in the form of a
warning light and associated audible
alarm that would indicate that the LNG
storage tank is approaching a pressure
which would require the tank to vent.
Knowing this, the truck driver could
take action to prevent such a release,
such as starting to drive the vehicle,
which likely would reduce the pressure
in the tank, or connecting the vent line
to either a LNG storage tank or natural
gas pipeline for venting. EPA requests
comment on the feasibility and
appropriateness of a regulatory
requirement that LNG fueled vehicles
include a warning system that would
notify the driver of a pending boil-off
event as one means reduce the
frequency of such events and thus limit
the release of methane.
(d) Request for Comment on Extending
the 5 Day Hold Time for LNG Vehicles
The specifications of the proposed 5
Day Hold Time SAE 2343 safety related
standard will only affect new LNG
vehicles to prevent boil-off initially and
does not address aging vehicles as their
insulating properties diminish such as
loosing vacuum over time that may
eventually result in much shorter hold
times. LNG tank manufacturers are
further developing their technologies for
improvement of hold times and
reducing boil-off from LNG storage
tanks on trucks. These improvements
can be incorporated by requiring longer
hold times. EPA is soliciting comment
on the ability of these emerging
technologies to address an extension of
5 days to a longer period of time such
as 10 days and the ability to achieve the
hold times for the duration of the
vehicle’s useful life.
(e) Capturing and/or Converting
Methane Refueling or Boil-Off
Emissions
We would like input on how effective
and feasible the following potential
emissions control technologies are for
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achieving longer hold times in LNG
vehicles.
A methane canister using adsorbents
such as ANG (adsorbed natural gas)
could be added to capture the methane
which otherwise would be released to
the environment during a refueling or
boil-off event. Once captured, steps
could be taken to route the methane to
the engine intake once the vehicle is
operating again, or to take steps to
converting the methane to less GHGpotent CO2.
Instead of discharging methane to the
environment, the methane potentially
could be burned to CO2 using a burner.
Another potential option would be to
convert the methane capture in a
canister to CO2 over a catalyst.
(f) Request for Comment on Reducing
Refueling Emissions
When refueling a natural gas vehicle,
methane is vented to the atmosphere. As
of Tier 3 it is required by EPA to use the
ANSI–NGV1–206 standard practice to
meet the evaporative emissions
refueling requirement. Small puffs of up
to 200 cc/hr (which equates to 72 grams
of methane per hour) of leakage are
allowed with these tests. Often there is
a vent line which carries these puffs
away from the nozzle interface for safety
reasons but is then vented to the
atmosphere. EPA is requesting comment
on ways to eliminate or reduce these
losses. If there must be allowances for
losses, then how can this methane gas
be captured during refueling using
systems that route methane emissions
back to the fuel storage tank, whether it
is a CNG tank, a CNG pipeline or reliquefying system for LNG. For LNG, in
addition to the boil-off issue is the
recurrence of manual venting at
refueling by truck operators. Under high
pressure circumstances, such as when
the vehicle has been sitting for some
time period in warmer temperatures, it
is necessary to decrease the pressure in
the fuel tank before new fuel can enter
the tank. The recommended practice is
to transfer the extra vaporized fuel to
the gas station or natural gas pipeline,
but this can take extra time. In some
areas it has turned into common
practice to just vent to the atmosphere
to keep the down time at the refueling
station to a minimum. In other areas
there is an incentive to reroute the gas
into the station storage tank or natural
gas pipeline with credit towards the fuel
purchase. EPA is requesting comment
on approaches to reduce refueling
emissions for LNG vehicles.
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(g) On-Board Monitoring Requirements
for Boil-Off Events and Venting at
Refueling
Onboard diagnostics for engines used
in vehicle applications greater than
14,000 lbs GVWR are already required
to detect and provide a warning for
when methane leaks occur due to wear
of connections and components of the
CNG or LNG fuel system (74 FR 8310,
February 24, 2009). We are requesting
comments on requiring on-board
monitoring to track boil-off events as
well as whether the excess vapors were
properly vented to the station storage
tanks or NG pipeline, or whether the
gaseous methane emissions were vented
to atmosphere during refueling events.
Each boil off event has the potential to
release on the order of 5,300–15,800
grams of CH4 which translates to 132K–
400K grams CO2 equivalent with a GWP
of 25 for 100 years.
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(h) Separate Standards for Natural Gas
Vehicles
As described above, the climate
impact of leaks and other methane
emissions that occur upstream of the
vehicle can potentially be large enough
to more than offset the CO2 benefit of
natural gas vehicles as measured at the
vehicle tailpipe. EPA is considering
separate action to control these
upstream emissions. Nevertheless, we
have some concern that the impact of
upstream emissions for natural gas
much higher than for gasoline or diesel
fuel because of the high Global Warming
Potential (GWP) for methane that makes
even small leaks of natural gas of
concern. In this way, natural gas is very
different than other alternative fuels.
While we are not proposing any
provisions to address this, we may
consider adopting such provisions in
the final rule and are asking for
comments on this topic. Would it be
appropriate to adjust the tailpipe GHG
emission standard for natural gas
vehicles by a factor to reflect the life
cycle emissions of natural gas vehicles
relative to diesel vehicles? For example,
if we were to determine that the lifecycle climate impacts of natural gas
vehicles were 150 percent of the tailpipe
GHG emissions, while the life-cycle
climate impacts of diesel vehicles were
135 percent of the tailpipe GHG
emissions, we could approximate the
relative climate impacts by setting the
natural gas tailpipe emission standard
10 percent lower than the diesel tailpipe
standard. We recognize that there is
significant uncertainty is assessing these
relative climate impacts, and that they
could change as new production
methods and/or regulations go into
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effect. Thus commenters supporting
making such an adjustment are
encouraged to address this uncertainty.
Commenters are also encouraged to
address how such an adjustment for
GHG emissions would impact the
closely coordinated EPA and NHTSA
heavy-duty Phase 2 program including
how a potential adjustment for upstream
methane emissions for natural gas
fueled vehicles would impact the
coordination of EPA GHG regulations
with the NHTSA fuel consumption
regulations.
E. Dimethyl Ether
Although NAS (2014) focused its
recommendations on natural gas, it also
discussed dimethyl ether (DME), which
is a potential heavy-duty truck fuel
sourced from natural gas. Dimethyl
ether has a high cetane number (more
than 55), although its energy density is
about 60 percent of that of diesel fuel.
Dimethyl ether is a volatile fuel, like
liquid petroleum gas, that can be stored
as a liquid at normal ambient
temperatures under moderate pressure.
Typical DME fuel tanks would be
designed to prevent any significant
evaporative emissions.
A DME fueled truck is only modestly
more expensive than a diesel fuel truck.
The fuel tank is more expensive than a
diesel fuel tank, but much less
expensive than an LNG tank since it
does not need to be heavily insulated.
The engine modifications to enable
using DME are also modest. Because
DME does not have carbon-carbon
bonds that form particulate matter
particles during combustion, the
particulate filter, which is standard
equipment on new diesel trucks, can be
eliminated. This offsets some of the
engine and fuel tank costs.
Although DME is sourced from cheap
natural gas, the conversion of natural
gas to DME and moving the fuel to retail
outlets greatly increases the cost of the
fuel. DME is more expensive than LNG,
but still lower in cost than diesel fuel
based on the fuel prices in early 2014.
DME is estimated to cost $3.50/DGE, or
$0.30 DGE less than diesel fuel.
Because there is very little DME use
in the U.S. (there is only a very small
fleet of trucks in California), we did not
conduct a lifecycle assessment of DME,
but note here a few aspects of a lifecycle
analysis for DME. First, since DME is
sourced from natural gas, the upstream
methane emissions from the natural gas
industry would still be allocated to
DME. Second, there are not venting
issues associated with DME as with
LNG or CNG refueling. Third, DME
itself has a much lower global warming
potential than methane. DME’s global
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warming potential is estimated to be 0.3
when assessed over a 100 year lifetime,
which is about 1 percent of methane’s
GWP.
XII. Agencies’ Response to
Recommendations From the National
Academy of Sciences
A. Overview
As part of the Phase 1 standards, the
agencies were informed by a report
generated by the National Academy of
Sciences (NAS), as required by Congress
in EISA.814 In addition to that initial
report, Section 107 of EISA requires that
the report be updated in five year
intervals through 2025.815 On
September 24, 2016, NAS will release
its updated report under Congress’
quinquennial update requirement.
However, because the Phase 2 rules will
be completed prior to the issuance of
the first update, NAS issued an interim
report in the form of a First Report (NAS
HD Phase 2 First Report) published on
April 3, 2014.816 The agencies have
consulted the report and considered its
findings in creating this proposal. The
National Research Council formed the
Committee on Technologies and
Approaches for Reducing the Fuel
Consumption of Medium- and HeavyDuty Vehicles, Phase Two (the
Committee or NAS Committee) in order
to prepare the NAS HD Phase 2 First
Report. In its Phase 2 First Report, the
Committee seeks to advise NHTSA on
the HD Phase 2 rules while meeting the
agencies’ objectives of:
• Reducing in-use emissions of carbon
dioxide from medium- and heavyduty vehicles
• Reducing in-use emissions of other
GHGs from medium- and heavy-duty
vehicles
• Improving the in-use efficiency of fuel
use in medium- and heavy-duty
vehicles—by driving innovation,
advancement, adoption, and in-use
balance of technology through
regulation
814 Energy Independence and Security Act of
2007, Public Law 110–140, section 108(a).
815 EISA further states that the NAS must submit
the report to DOT, the Senate Committee on
Commerce, Science, and Transportation, and the
House Committee on Energy and Commerce not
later than one year after the date on which the
Secretary executed the agreement with the NAS.
816 Transportation Research Board 2014.
‘‘Reducing the Fuel Consumption and Greenhouse
Gas Emissions of Medium- and Heavy-Duty
Vehicles, Phase Two.’’ (‘‘Phase 2 First Report’’)
Washington, DC, The National Academies Press.
Cooperative Agreement DTNH22–12–00389.
Available electronically from the National Academy
Press Web site at https://www.nap.edu/
catalog.php?record_id=12845 (last accessed
December 2, 2014).
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In providing the First Report
recommendations, the committee
acknowledged the following constraints:
(1) NAS Findings and
Recommendations With Which Phase 2
Standards Are Consistent
• Holding life-cycle cost of technology
change or technology addition to an
acceptable level
• Holding capital cost of acquiring
required new technology to an
acceptable level
• Acknowledging the importance of
employing a balance of energy
resources that offers national security
• Avoiding near-term, precipitous
regulatory changes that are disruptive
to commercial planning
• Ensuring that the vehicles offered for
sale remain suited to their intended
purposes and meet user requirements
• Ensuring that the process used to
demonstrate compliance is accurate,
efficient, and not excessively
burdensome
• Not eroding control of criteria
pollutants or unregulated species that
may have health effects
(a) How should the agencies address
standards for trailers in the phase 2
rulemaking?
Given the exclusion of trailers from
the Phase 1 standards, the Committee
focused on a wide array of opportunities
by which the agencies could reduce fuel
consumption and GHG emissions. The
Committee evaluated potential fuel
consumption- and GHG-reducing
technologies that can be incorporated on
a trailer as well as components of a
trailer, such as tire-related technologies.
The Committee found that many
opportunities exist for trailers to reduce
fuel consumption and GHG emissions of
the pulling tractor. More specifically,
the Committee evaluated trailer
aerodynamics, tire rolling resistance,
and tire pressure monitoring systems.
Despite the fuel consumption- and
GHG-reducing possibilities of the trailer
technologies the Committee evaluated, a
survey it conducted found that only 40
percent of new van trailers came
equipped with fuel-saving aerodynamic
devices.817 Further, the Committee
found that most trailer devices on
average, within one year, saved enough
in fuel cost to pay for the added cost of
the device. The Committee observed
that when a trailer is not owned by the
tractor operator, there is no incentive for
the trailer owner to purchase fuel-saving
devices. Moreover, the Committee stated
that in absence of regulation, many
trailer owners do not choose to employ
fuel saving devices.
The Committee recommended that
NHTSA, in coordination with EPA,
adopt a regulation requiring that all 53
foot and longer dry van and refrigerated
van trailers meet performance standards
that reduce fuel consumption and GHG
emissions.818 It also recommended that
NHTSA assess the benefit of using GEM
to address all tractors in combination
with trailers.819 The Committee also
recommended the agencies collect realworld data on fleet use of aerodynamic
trailers to help inform standards.820
As discussed in more detail in Section
IV, the agencies are proposing to adopt
Phase 2 standards for all new dry van
and refrigerated van trailers, including
both those above and below 53 feet in
length. The agencies have carefully
evaluated the lead time for
implementation of this potential
program to take into consideration
Although the Phase 2 First Report was
developed and written in terms of
reducing fuel consumption, its findings
and recommendations in general apply
equally to a program that reduces GHG
emissions, given the close relationship
between the two.
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B. Major Findings and
Recommendations of the NAS Phase 2
First Report
While the agencies have addressed
many NAS recommendations as they
pertain to individual areas of the Phase
2 standards, this section consolidates all
of the recommendations from the NAS
HD Phase 2 First Report and discusses
the extent to which the agencies’
proposed program is consistent with
them. The NAS HD Phase 2 First Report
contains more than 40
recommendations to the agencies. All of
the Committee’s recommendations have
been considered, and many of them
have been incorporated in the Phase 2
standards. In some instances, the
agencies have chosen a different course
from the one charted by the NAS
Committee’s recommendations.
Instead of discussing the NAS report
findings and recommendations in the
order presented in the Phase 2 First
Report itself, this section divides the
NAS findings and recommendations in
three categories: Findings and
recommendations with which (1) the
Phase 2 standards are consistent; (2) the
Phase 2 Standards are significantly
inconsistent; and (3) the Phase 2
standards are less-significantly
inconsistent.
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817 See
Note [3] at 78.
Recommendation 6.1.
819 Id., Recommendation 3.12.
820 Id., Recommendation 6.1.
factors such as existing market
conditions and the fact that a regulation
of new trailers will include companies
that have not previously been regulated
for fuel consumption and GHG
emissions. To the degree that it is
available, the agencies are gathering
data on real world fleet use of
aerodynamic devices, both to
understand the overall context of the
rules and for specific analytical
purposes such as the appropriate role of
aerodynamic devices on the reference
trailer used for tractor aerodynamic
assessment. The agencies have also
assessed the benefit of using GEM to
address all tractors in combination with
trailers and are proposing that, for the
long-term program, GEM be used to
demonstrate compliance with both the
tractor and the trailer requirements of
the Phase 2 program.
In addition to the Committee’s
recommendation that NHTSA and EPA
regulate 53 foot and longer box trailers,
the Committee recommended that
NHTSA and EPA assess the
practicability and cost-effectiveness of
including pups, flat-beds, and container
chassis.821 The Committee found that
pups, flat-beds, and container chassis
demonstrated fuel savings, however,
factors such as average speed, mileage,
and practical concerns such as access to
equipment underneath the trailer
needed to be assessed.822
The agencies have evaluated whether
it would be practical and cost effective
to include pups (in tandem or
separately), other box trailers of lengths
between that of pups and standard 53foot trailers, flatbeds, container chassis
(with and without containers attached),
tankers, and other trailer types in the
Phase 2 regulation. As a result of this
analysis, the agencies are proposing to
include pups as well as box vans
between 28 feet and 53 feet long in
Phase 2. With regard to other types of
trailers, such as tankers, flatbeds, and
container chassis, the agencies have
evaluated issues such as trailer
plumbing, flat bed ground clearance,
chassis stacking, trailer duty cycles, cost
of technologies, and other issues. The
agencies are proposing that these and
other non-box trailers be included in
Phase 2 requirements. However the
agencies are assuming compliance with
the Phase 2 program for these non-box
trailers will be limited to tire
technologies.
Finally, the Committee examined the
use of GEM for tractor and trailer
compliance. It asserted that tractors and
trailers are fundamentally inseparable
818 Id.,
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821 Id.,
822 Id.
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when addressing aerodynamic drag and
design. As applied to GEM simulation,
the Committee opined that considering
tractors and trailers separately for
simulation purposes might prove
counterproductive, because components
on a tractor and trailer might
compromise aerodynamic optimization.
The Committee recommended that
NHTSA assess the benefit of using GEM
to address all tractors in combination
with trailers.823
As stated above, the agencies have
assessed the benefit of using GEM to
address all tractors in combination with
trailers and are proposing to use GEM
for both tractors and trailers for the
Phase 2 program for tractors and trailers,
similar to what was done in Phase 1. In
Phase 1, which did not regulate trailers,
this meant simulating each tractor being
certified as being used in combination
with a standard reference trailer. For
these rules, we are proposing to
simulate each trailer being certified as
being used in combination with a
standard reference tractor.
(b) Have the agencies revisited
dieselization of Class 2b through 7
vehicles?
The Committee reiterated a
recommendation from its Phase 1 report
regarding the study of dieselization of
Class 2b through 7 vehicles.824 The
Committee stated that diesel engines
present an opportunity for incremental
fuel efficiency gains. The NAS
Committee recommended that NHTSA
conduct a study of Class 2b to 7 vehicles
to consider the incremental fuel
consumption reduction of diesels, the
price of diesel versus gasoline, and the
diesel advantage in durability.825
As part of the Phase 2 proposed rule
analysis, the agencies evaluated many
potential fuel efficiency and greenhouse
gas reduction (FE/GHG) technologies for
both gasoline and diesel fueled vehicles.
As will be discussed in detail in later
responses, NHTSA sponsored research
at Southwest Research Institute (SwRI)
included simulations of baseline and
projected Phase 2 FE/GHG technologies
for Class 2b through 7 vehicles over a
range of appropriate duty cycles.826 A
HD pickup truck (Class 2b), the Dodge
Ram 2500, was modeled using a 385-hp
6.7-liter diesel engine as the baseline.
The vehicle’s baseline performance and
the effectiveness of FE/GHG
technologies with the diesel engine
were compared over identical duty
823 Id.
824 Id.
at 38, Recommendation 3.12.
at 14–15.
825 Id.
cycles to two gasoline engines, a 6.2liter naturally aspirated gasoline V–8
and 3.5-liter turbocharged direct
injection V–6, with their corresponding
engine technologies. Similarly, two
medium-duty trucks (Class 6), the Ford
F–650 and Kenworth T–270, were
modeled using a 300-hp 6.7-liter diesel
engine as the baseline and compared to
the two aforementioned medium-duty
V–8 and V–6 gasoline engines.
Many of the diesel engine
technologies evaluated in supporting
Phase 2 research are currently available,
proven, and on the path to increased
penetration across the fleet. Other
technologies are still in development
and looking for the opportunity to enter
the mainstream production lifecycle.
For the latter, the agencies believe, as
informed through the proposed rule
development research, that costs,
reliability, durability, and clear user
benefits are important when
determining potential future technology
applications to achieve attainable
standards resulting in real-world
reductions. As identified in the
proposal, the agencies considered these
important factors when developing the
proposed standards and, included in the
analysis, are technologies that recognize
the value of the current and future fleet
dieselization.
However, the agencies recognize that
there are valid reasons for why medium
and heavy-duty vehicle purchasers
sometimes choose gasoline engines over
diesels. Gasoline engines are generally
lighter and less expensive than diesels,
although they typically do not last as
long in heavy-service. For applications
in which the vehicle is not expected to
travel many miles each year, gasoline
engines may be the best choice. On the
other hand, for applications in which
the vehicle is expected to travel many
miles each year, diesels can be a more
appropriate choice.
recommended that NHTSA, in
coordination with EPA, begin to
consider the well-to-wheel, life-cycle
energy consumption and greenhouse
emissions associated with different
vehicle and energy technologies to
ensure future rulemakings best
accomplish their overall goals.828
The agencies recognize that
understanding the life-cycle
implications of vehicle and energy
technologies is important to ensure that
the rulemaking accomplishes its overall
goals. In the Draft and Final
Environmental Impact Statement (EIS)
prepared for the 2017 and Later Model
Year Light-Duty Vehicle GHG Emissions
and CAFE Standards rulemaking,
NHTSA introduced a literature
synthesis of life-cycle environmental
impacts of certain vehicle materials and
technologies. Consistent with that
approach, in the Draft EIS for Phase 2,
NHTSA has again provided a literature
synthesis of life-cycle environmental
impacts, focusing on the unique vehicle
technologies for the HD sector and
incorporating by reference the literature
synthesis prepared for the MY 2017 and
beyond CAFE Final EIS. The Draft EIS
also uses the GREET fuel-cycle model to
assess upstream emissions from
extraction, refining, and transportation
of medium- and heavy-duty vehicle
fuels. This information in the Draft EIS
informs both the agency and the public
about the potential life-cycle
implications of the various technologies
under consideration in this rulemaking.
NHTSA invites comments on the Draft
EIS and its literature synthesis of lifecycle environmental impacts.
EPA has also evaluated the lifecycle
impact of heavy-duty trucks being
fueled with natural gas in comparison to
other heavy-duty trucks. This analysis is
presented in Section XI along with a
discussion of projections for future use
of natural gas by heavy-duty trucks.
(c) What kind of analyses are the
agencies doing on upstream emissions
related to natural gas?
The NAS Committee discussed the
potential natural gas presents for
reducing fuel consumption and GHG
emissions in medium- and heavy-duty
vehicles. The Committee stated that
while tailpipe emissions are often the
most observable instance of fuel
consumption and tailpipe emissions,
the fuel production, distribution, and
processing components of obtaining
natural gas for use in vehicles also
factors into any calculation of overall
benefits derived from natural gas
vehicles.827 The Committee
(d) How have the agencies evaluated
aerodynamic testing methods for the
Phase 2 program?
With regard to aerodynamic devices,
the NAS Committee reviewed
aerodynamic test procedures related to
evaluating aerodynamic effectiveness.
The Committee found that industry
testing procedures can vary widely
because of the precision of the standards
themselves.829 Further, the Committee
found that fidelity of test results from
coastdown procedures versus results
from a powered on-track test is not
known. The Committee recommended
that NHTSA and EPA evaluate the
826 See the 2015 NHTSA Technology Study, Note
289 above.
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827 Id.
at 19–20.
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829 Id.
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relative fidelities of the coast-down
procedure and candidate powered
procedures to define and optimum
prescribed full-vehicle test procedure
and process and validate the improved
procedure against real world vehicle
testing.830 It also recommended that
NHTSA and EPA assess whether adding
yaw loads provides significantly
increased value to the Cd result. The
Committee recommended providing
updated test data to manufacturers to
increase consumer confidence in the
accuracy (and real-world applicability)
of the testing measures as related to
aerodynamic devices.831 832
The agencies have undertaken a
coordinated research program to inform
the Phase 2 certification test procedure
for aerodynamic drag and tire rolling
resistance. The U.S. EPA and its
contractors have evaluated coastdown,
constant speed, CFD, and scale wind
tunnel testing for tractors and trailers.
The goals of this research effort were to:
Assess variability between test methods;
assess how yaw impacts aerodynamic
performance; evaluate correlation of
different test methods one to another;
assess the impact of different tractor/
trailer design attributes on the test
results; examine how differences
between manufacturers’ products
impact aerodynamics; and measure Cd
improvements from a variety of
aerodynamic devices in combination
and alone. NHTSA and its contractors
conducted simulation modeling to:
Evaluate aerodynamic drag and tire
rolling resistance improvements in
combination with other vehicle and
engine technologies, and determine the
impact of different duty cycles on
aerodynamic drag performance. Finally,
EPA has conducted an analysis to
determine whether or not adding yaw
adjustments to the certification process
improves the Cd result. As a result, the
agencies are proposing to add yaw
adjustments to the certification process
for tractors. The agencies are
disseminating the results of these test
programs and conclusions at association
meetings and public meetings such as
SAE COMVEC.
Through the research programs
described above, the agencies have
evaluated aerodynamic data that better
reflects real-world experience. And, to
the extent available, the agencies have
collected aerodynamic performance data
that reflect real-world experience. This
information has informed the Phase 2
proposal. For example, in addition to
the agencies are proposing to account
for yaw in the aerodynamic assessment
for Cd, we are also proposing changes to
vehicle speeds used in the aerodynamic
reference test procedure to facilitate
improved estimation of Cd.
(e) What kind of new modeling research
has been conducted to inform Phase 2?
With a wide range of potential fuel
consumption- and GHG emissions
reducing technologies, the NAS
Committee found that it is proper to
assess the various combinations of
technologies in real-world testing and in
modeling. The Committee
recommended that NHTSA conduct
detailed simulation modeling in
addition to physical testing.833
In September 2012, NHTSA
contracted with the Southwest Research
Institute (SwRI) to conduct research in
support of the next phase of Federal fuel
efficiency (FE) and GHG standards.834
Tasks included determining the baseline
fuel efficiency and emissions levels and
technologies of current model year
commercial medium- and heavy-duty
on-highway vehicles and work trucks,
as well as projections of Phase 2 fuel
efficiency and emission reduction
technologies for diesel and gasoline
powered vehicles. The scope
encompassed technologies for chassis
and final-stage manufacturer vehicles
and trailers, maintenance cost, material
application, future design, capital
investment, retail cost/payback and any
other applicable advanced technologies.
Estimates of the costs, fuel savings
effectiveness, availability, and
applicability of technologies were done
for each individual vehicle class
category (e.g., segment).
Selection of FE/GHG technologies,
engines, vehicles, drive-cycles, etc. for
the simulation modeling at SwRI was
done in coordination with EPA, which
had complimentary HD research
programs involving vehicle road testing
and engine dynamometer testing that
informed the simulation efforts. The
SwRI analysis relied on a technology list
that was developed from recent NAS HD
vehicle fuel consumption reports as
well as an extensive literature review.
Four base engines and four vehicles
spanning the class 2b to class 8 vehicle
segments were selected for simulation.
Experimental data was available from
other projects for all of the vehicles and
engines simulated, and full use of
experimental data was made to calibrate
the models before additional
technologies were evaluated.
SwRI used a vehicle simulation tool
developed in-house to model vehicle
830 Id.
at 84, Recommendation 6.3.
at 36, Recommendation 3.5.
832 Id. at 84, Recommendation 6.3.
831 Id.
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at 24, Recommendation 2.1.
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performance over a range of drive
cycles. The commercial software GT–
POWER (Gamma Technologies, Inc.)
was used to model engine performance,
fuel consumption, and CO2 emissions
over the full speed-load range. Results
of the agency-sponsored simulation
modeling at SwRI will be issued in peerreviewed research reports.
(f) How has GEM been modified by
EPA?
In its report, the NAS Committee
focused many of its recommendations
on EPA’s GEM. The Committee
concentrated on what features could be
incorporated into GEM in order to
improve the model’s ability to provide
outputs representative of real-world use.
More specifically, the Committee
found that GEM output was unaffected
by the actual use of a smaller or larger
engine in the same subcategory because
the engine map used by GEM is
predefined.835 The NAS Committee
recommended that the agencies should
assess whether a single steady-state
speed-torque map is sufficient for GEM
accuracy in engine efficiency
prediction.836 EPA has evaluated this
question and is modifying GEM to allow
for different maps as an input.
Additionally, the Committee
emphasized that a certification test must
be highly accurate and repeatable. It
stated that the need to account for the
close interaction of the engine with
other components, including the
aftertreatment subsystem and
transmission.837 NAS recommended
that the agencies allow powertrain
testing for certification.838 As described
in Section II, the agencies are doing so
in conjunction with GEM. See the
proposed provisions in 40 CFR
1037.550, which further discusses
powertrain testing and certification.
More generally, the NAS Committee
recommended revising GEM to reflect
the benefit of integrating an engines,
aftertreatment, and transmissions and to
cover as large a fraction of over-the-road
tractor operation as possible without
becoming overly cumbersome.839 As
described in Section II and in Chapter
4 of the draft RIA, the agencies believe
the proposed revisions to GEM reflect
this.
(g) What have the agencies done to
validate GEM testing?
The NAS Committee expressed
concern over GEM’s ability to translate
835 Id.
at 37.
Recommendation 3.8.
837 Id. at 14.
838 Id, Recommendation 1.6.
839 Id. at 37, Recommendations 3.10, 3.11.
836 Id.,
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to real world reductions in fuel
consumption and GHG emissions. In
particular, the Committee found that
GEM’s current certification procedures
have limited unbound variables that can
be user-specified and do not allow for
synergy between components.840
Moreover, the NAS Committee found
that GEM does not allow for the
operation of components in the most
efficient way or efficiency that could be
gained by the operation of a component
at a higher relative load, concluding that
vehicle designs that are optimized for
the conditions of the simulation might
not be optimized in real world
operation.841 The Committee
recommended that NHTSA conduct a
real world evaluation to validate GEM
inputs with the fuel consumption
outputs.842 Additionally, it
recommended that EPA and NHTSA
should assess whether a steady-state
torque map is sufficient for GEM
accuracy in engine efficiency
prediction.843
Recently, EPA and NHTSA sponsored
a technical workshop at the Southwest
Research Institute (SwRI). At this
workshop, SwRI presented a multi-year
research effort sponsored by EPA to
validate GEM. The development version
of GEM incorporates several engine,
transmission, driveline, and vehicle
technologies being considered to meet
FE and GHG standards for MD/HD
vehicles. GEM (including the steadystate fuel map approach) was validated
by the agencies against over 130 test
cases (multiple runs) of different size
vehicles. See Section II of this notice
and Chapter 4 of the draft RIA for
further information about this validation
work.
(h) Has NHTSA considered nonvehicular strategies to reduce fuel
consumption?
In examining the broader picture of
reducing fuel consumption, the NAS
Committee found that there are
opportunities to reduce fuel
consumption in ways that that exceed
NHTSA’s statutory authority.844 The
Committee recommended that NHTSA
work with and encourage EPA, DOE,
and FHWA to reduce fuel consumption
and GHG emissions by exploring nonvehicle approaches.845
NHTSA is jointly releasing this
rulemaking with EPA, and has involved
EPA as a co-drafter throughout the
840 Id.
development of these rules. NHTSA has
also worked with DOE, and has been in
touch with FHWA about medium- and
heavy duty fuel efficiency. While the
majority of NHTSA’s work with these
agencies has been vehicle-related,
NHTSA supports research and
development on nonvehicle methods to
reduce fuel consumption.
(2) NAS Findings and
Recommendations With Which the
Phase 2 Standards Are Significantly
Inconsistent and Why the Agencies
Chose a Different Course
(a) Should the agencies propose separate
standards for natural gas vehicles?
The NAS Committee found that
natural gas is a viable option to reduce
fuel consumption and can also
contribute to a reduction in GHG
emissions, ‘‘unless additional findings
of methane leakage alter this vision.’’ 846
It noted that natural gas engines are
well-developed and are ready for use for
medium- and heavy-duty vehicles,
including Class 8 trucks. The Committee
stated that while the load-specific CO2
emissions from natural gas engines are
less than a comparable diesel engine,
that benefit is partially negated by lower
engine efficiency and methane
emissions.847 The NAS Committee
recommended that NHTSA and EPA
develop a separate standard for natural
gas vehicles, similar to that in dieseland gasoline-fueled engines.848 We
interpret this to mean standards that
require natural gas-fueled engines to
achieve similar thermal efficiency to
diesel- and gasoline-fueled engines; in
other words more stringent standards
than would apply under a continuation
of the Phase 1 approach. Further, the
Committee recommended the agencies
do this without disrupting commercial
transportation business models, though
the Committee did not provide specific
recommendations for how to achieve
this goal.849 It recommended that GEM
certification tools need to include
natural gas engine maps to accurately
quantify the emissions and fuel
economy of natural gas vehicles. The
Committee also requested that EPA and
NHTSA assemble a best estimate of
well-to-tank GHG emissions to be used
for developing future rulemakings.850
The agencies closely evaluated the
recommendation for NHTSA and EPA to
develop a separate natural gas standard
for HD vehicles. The agencies are not
proposing a separate standard for
at 11.
841 Id.
846 Id.
842 Id.,
847 Id.
Recommendation 1.2.
843 Id. at 37, Recommendation 3.8.
844 Id. at 15.
845 Id., Recommendation 1.9.
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at 65.
848 Id.
at 65, Recommendation 5.2.
at 65, Recommendation 5.3.
850 Id. at 65, Recommendation 5.1.
natural gas engines or for natural gas
powered vehicles for the Phase 2
program primarily, because the current
market share is still at or below one
percent of the total heavy-duty fleet and
we do not project a significant increase
in natural gas use during the Phase 2
timeframe. Given its current status, we
do not want to inhibit the adoption of
this potentially promising alternative
fuel through more stringent standards.
Other reasons to hold back on
potentially establishing separate natural
gas fuel standards at this time include
the fact that there is uncertainty in the
quantification of methane emissions,
both upstream emissions as well as
potential leakage on a vehicle,
particularly the LNG vehicle boil-off
emissions, which makes it very difficult
to perform a rigorous analysis regarding
the potential impacts of a separate
natural gas standard; the industry itself
is in the process of developing its
technology and as it matures there is
potential for self-correction to address
methane leaks in recognition of
environmental concerns that might
affect its status as a potential green
alternative fuel.
With regard to well-to-tank or
upstream emissions, the medium- and
heavy-duty fuel efficiency program
focuses on the tailpipe emissions of
these vehicles for multiple reasons,
including test measurement capabilities
and the use of simulated output tools
calibrated to test lab measurements. The
agencies continue to evaluate the
potential impacts and the benefits of a
holistic approach for incorporating wellto-tank emissions into future
rulemakings.
As data comes available a better
estimate can be made on the emissions
impact from any potential regulations.
The agencies will closely monitor
developments in natural gas adoption
over the course of the rulemaking
timeframe and determine if additional
action may be necessary to prevent
methane emissions increases. See
Section XI of this preamble for
additional discussion regarding the
treatment of natural gas fuel, engines
and vehicles in this proposal, as well as
for a detailed discussion of lifecycle
emissions.
(b) How are the agencies handling
uniformity and accuracy regarding tire
rolling resistance characteristics?
The NAS Committee expressed
concern about the process by which
rolling resistance values are
established.851 Specifically, the
Committee noted that the process for
849 Id.
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determining tire rolling resistance is
new and variability is not as well
known. The Committee recommended
that the agencies implement a
mechanism for obtaining accurate tire
rolling resistance factors, including
establishing a tire alignment
laboratory.852 853 Additionally, the
Committee recommended that this data
be available in the through the Uniform
Tire Quality Grading system.854
In Phase 1, the agencies received
comments from stakeholders
highlighting a need to develop a
reference lab and alignment tires for the
HD sector. The agencies noted the labto-lab comparison conducted in the
Phase 1 EPA tire test program. The
agencies reviewed the rolling resistance
data from the tires that were tested at
both the STL and Smithers laboratories
to assess inter-laboratory and test
machine variability. The agencies
conducted statistical analysis of the data
to gain better understanding of lab-tolab correlation and developed an
adjustment factor for data measured at
each of the test labs. Based on these
results, the agencies believe the lab-tolab variation for the STL and Smithers
laboratories would have very small
effect on measured rolling resistance
values. Based on the test data, the
agencies judge that it is reasonable to
continue the HD Phase 2 program with
current levels of variability, and
consider the use of either Smithers or
STL laboratories to be acceptable for
determining the tire rolling resistance
value in Phase 2. Note that the agencies
have not made similar findings for other
laboratories. However, we welcome
comment on the need to establish a
reference machine for the HD sector and
interest from tire testing facilities to
commit to developing a reference
machine.
In the final rule for the Phase 1
program, the agencies stated that
compliance values submitted to the
agencies should be derived using the
ISO 28580 test method for drive tires
and steer tires planned for fitment to the
vehicle being certified.855 The agencies
believe that following a defined,
standardized test procedure will
provide levels of consistency in
submitted compliance values. The
agencies conducted substantive testing
to develop the final tire Crr standards in
the Phase 1 rule at two different testing
laboratories for comparison to test for
variability. The agencies concluded that
although laboratory-to-laboratory and
852 Id.
at 36, Recommendation 3.4, 6.6 p 84.
at 84, Recommendation 6.6.
854 Id. at 36, Recommendation 3.4.
855 76 FR 57182–57185.
test machine-to-test machine
measurement variability exists, the level
observed is not excessive relative to the
distribution of absolute measured Crr
performance values and relative to the
proposed standards. Based on this, the
agencies concluded that the test
protocol and the proposed standards are
reasonable for this program.
The agencies are considering
publishing the tire Crr levels from fuel
efficiency and GHG emission program
compliance data. Because compliance
data are submitted by vehicle
manufacturers rather than directly from
the tire manufacturers or agency
directed testing they could vary for a
given tire model among vehicle
manufacturer submissions, or lag when
tires are redesigned. Based on
considerations such as this, the agencies
are not proposing to establish a public
database for heavy-duty vehicle tire
rolling resistance information at this
time.
(c) Have the agencies considered
industry standards for medium- and
heavy-duty Tire Pressure Systems
(TPS)?
The NAS Committee found that tire
pressure monitoring systems and
automatic tire inflation systems are
being adopted by fleets at an increasing
rate.856 However, the Committee noted
that there are no standards for
performance, display, and system
validation. The Committee
recommended that NHTSA issue a
white paper to clarify the minimum
performance needed from these systems
from a safety perspective.857 This
recommendation addresses the effects of
tire pressure systems on vehicle safety.
Because the recommendation for a
white paper relates to safety, and is not
directed at fuel efficiency or GHG
emissions effects, the agencies are not
responding to the NAS recommendation
in this proposal.
Nevertheless, the agencies note that
automatic tire inflation systems can
improve fuel efficiency and greenhouse
gas emissions (see Preamble Section III/
draft RIA Chapter 2) by maintaining tire
pressure close to the tire pressure
specification. The agencies are
proposing to recognize automatic tire
inflation systems as a technology that
improves fuel efficiency for tractors,
trailers and vocational vehicles in the
GEM vehicle compliance model.
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857 Id.,
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Recommendation 6.4.
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(d) Will NHTSA survey private fleets or
leverage government fleets to gather
information for the Phase 2 rulemaking?
In its report, the NAS Committee
found that there are many additional
methods by which NHTSA could gather
fleet information to inform the Phase 2
rulemaking. The Committee
recommended that NHTSA gather data
from private fleets, and work with the
General Services Administration or
United States Postal Service to evaluate
the fleet of vehicles they possess.858 859
NHTSA understands that additional
fleet information could be helpful for
purposes of formulating medium- and
heavy-duty fuel efficiency standards.
Due to the length of time necessary to
capture useful, relevant data from fleets,
NHTSA was unable to conduct public or
private fleet studies to inform this
rulemaking. NHTSA will take these
recommendations under advisement to
inform the agency in the future. For the
time being, the agencies have utilized
data from FHWA, EPA’s SmartWay
program, Polk, and other sources of fleet
information.
(e) GEM Inputs and Outputs
The NAS Committee found that GEM
Version 2.0.1 is not compatible with
automated order entry systems of
OEMs.860 It recommended that the GEM
programmers configure GEM to be
compatible with existing OEM order
entry systems 861 and provide a more
useful output that includes graphs and
other presentation methods.862
However, EPA believes these
recommendations are beyond the scope
of this rulemaking.
(f) OEM-Specific Code
The NAS committee stated models
should be capable of simulating realworld component behavior, and should
not be oversimplified.863 It
recommended allowing OEMs to
substitute OEM-specific models or code
for the fixed models in the current GEM,
including substituting a power pack (the
engine, aftertreatment, transmission).864
However, as described in Section II, we
are not proposing to allow this for a
number of reasons. NAS explained that
its goal was to reflect real-world
operation accurately. We believe the
powertrain test option could be used to
achieve this goal.
858 Id.
at 43, Recommendation 4.2, 4.3, and 4.4.
at 11, Recommendation 1.3.
860 Id. at 35.
861 Id., Recommendation 3.2.
862 Id., Recommendation 3.3.
863 Id. at 37.
864 Id., Recommendation 3.7.
859 Id.
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(3) NAS Findings and
Recommendations With Which the
Phase 2 Standards Are LessSignificantly Inconsistent
(a) What are the agencies doing with
respect to fuel specifications for natural
gas?
The Committee found that natural gas
provides a potential long-term price
advantage backed by an abundant
supply.865 In addition to its other
natural gas (NG)-specific
recommendations, the Committee
recommended government and the
private sector should support further
technical improvements in engine
efficiency and operating costs, reduction
of storage costs, and emission controls
(as is done for diesel engines).866
Further, it recommended that NHTSA
and EPA should also evaluate the need
for and benefits and costs of an in-use
NG fuel specification for motor vehicle
use.
The agencies recognize the value in
evaluating an in-use NG fuel
specification for motor vehicle use. EPA
has developed and promulgated fuel
specifications for other motor vehicle
fuel types, both for test fuels and for inuse fuels. Such fuel specifications
established by EPA usually complement
fuel specifications established by third
party organizations such as ASTM.
EPA has established fuel
specifications for natural gas used as
test fuels for emissions testing,867 but
has not adopted specifications for in-use
natural gas used as a motor vehicle or
off-highway fuel. However, states have
set natural gas quality limits on the
natural gas sold within the state, and
natural gas pipelines have established
specifications for the natural gas either
for their own purposes or to ensure that
the natural gas being transported by its
pipeline will be usable within the states
to which the pipeline transports the
natural gas. These specifications would
apply to natural gas used as a motor
vehicle fuel.
EPA may consider establishing in-use
specifications for natural gas used as a
motor vehicle or off-highway fuel in the
future. However, because natural gas
use within the transportation sector is
currently so small (less than 1 percent
of total natural gas demand and less
than 1 percent of heavy-duty fuel
demand), its use for transportation
would not have a separate fuel supply
system, and it would not make sense
that such a small user segment should
dictate fuel quality for the overall fuel
supply. Like other potential regulations
that EPA might consider, EPA will
consider establishing fuel quality
regulations on natural gas if and when
its use increases as a fuel for the
transportation sector.
(b) Have the agencies considered low
rolling resistance standards for all new
tires?
With regard to low rolling resistance
tires, the NAS Committee found that 70
percent of new tires sold in 2012 were
for replacement of existing tires.868 It
found that although most new tractors
and trailers come equipped with
SmartWay verified tires, only 42 percent
of replacement tires are SmartWay
verified.869 The Committee
recommended that NHTSA and EPA
evaluate rolling resistance of new tires,
especially those sold as
replacements.870 It recommended that
NHTSA adopt a regulation establishing
a low rolling resistance standard for all
new tires designed for tractor and trailer
use.871
The agencies are proposing to include
low rolling resistance tires as a
technology that may be used for
compliance for fuel efficiency and GHG
standards. The agencies conducted tire
rolling resistance testing and considered
confidential business information data
provided by several tire manufacturers,
which is discussed in Preamble Sections
III, IV, and V and draft RIA Chapter 2.
The agencies have focused our resources
and attention to develop standards for
new vehicles and engines. NHTSA has
not conducted work to consider a
rolling resistance performance standard
for replacement tires at this time and
will take the Committee’s
recommendation under advisement.
(c) Have the agencies considered a
protocol for measuring and reporting the
coefficient of rolling resistance to aid in
consumer selection?
The Committee recommended that the
agencies consider establishing a
protocol for measuring and reporting the
coefficient of rolling resistance to aid in
consumer selection, similar to passenger
car tires.872 At this time, the agencies
are taking the Committee’s
recommendation under advisement.
865 Id.
at 65.
Recommendation 5.4.
867 EPA set natural gas test fuel quality for lightduty and heavy-duty engines in 1994 (40 CFR
86.113–94 and 86.1313–94, respectively), and for
nonroad engines in 2002 (40 CFR 1065.715).
866 Id.,
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868 Id.
at 84.
869 Id.
870 Id.,
Recommendation 6.5.
(d) What other revisions are the agencies
making to GEM?
Consistent with the NAS Committee’s
recommendations, the agencies are
proposing to make the following
revisions to GEM, as also detailed
Preamble Section II:
Allowing manufacturers to input
parameters related to engines,
transmissions, and axles
• Basing GEM on a steady-state fuel
map
• Allowing separate fuel maps for
alternative fuels
• Including real-world road grade to
highway cycles
• Use of wind-average drag coefficients
for aerodynamic inputs
However, the agencies are not making
other changes recommended by NAS.
We are not making the user interface
changes recommended by the
Committee on behalf of manufacturers.
Our recent discussions with
manufacturers indicate that they have
adopted ordering systems that are
consistent with the current interface.
We are also not revising GEM to allow
manufacturers to input their own shift
strategies. Instead, we are proposing a
powertrain test option that would serve
the same purpose.
The NAS Committee also
recommended that we broaden GEM to
allow for additional duty-cycles and
actual vehicle weights. We believe that
such changes would not significantly
improve the overall program, but would
add significant complexity.
(e) Vehicle Weight and Payload in GEM
The NAS Committee recommended
that NHTSA evaluate the load specific
fuel consumption (LSFC) at more than
one payload to ensure there is not an
undesirable acute sensitivity to payload
by a particular truck power train and to
reflect the fact that some states allow
vehicles to operate with gross
combination vehicle weight ratings well
in excess of the values adopted for the
simulation. NAS also recommended that
GEM allow manufacturers to input
actual vehicle weights.873
As described in Section III, the
agencies are proposing to modify GEM
to allow heavy-haul vehicles to be
certified separately, to reflect their
unique weight and payload attributes.
However, are not proposing to allow for
other payloads or weights to minimize
complexity during the compliance
process.
871 Id.
872 Id.
at 14, Recommendation 1.8.
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(f) Is NHTSA conducting any campaigns
related to fuel efficient driving
behaviors?
In the NAS Committee’s Phase 1
report,874 the Committee concluded that
fuel saving opportunities exist if drivers
are educated about fuel efficient driving
techniques.875 The Phase 2 reiterated
this finding, and recommended NHTSA
encourage and incentivize the
dissemination of information related to
the relationship between driver
behavior and fuel savings.876
Based on NHTSA’s understanding of
the medium- and heavy-duty segments,
a large portion of the vehicles are driven
professionally. Professional drivers
operate these vehicles as independent
drivers and in trucking fleets. In some
instances, particularly larger fleet
operations, management will track and
encourage driver fuel efficiency. It is not
uncommon for professional drivers
across all types of trucking operations to
undergo private fuel efficiency training.
For these reasons, NHTSA has not yet
undertaken dissemination of
information related to the relationship
between driver behavior and fuel
savings.
XIII. Amendments to Phase 1 Standards
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The agencies are proposing revisions
to the regulatory text specifying test
procedures and compliance provisions
used for Phase 1. For the most part,
these amendments would apply
exclusively to the Phase 2 rules. In a few
limited instances, the agencies are
proposing to apply some of these
changes to Phase 1. These limited
changes to the Phase 1 program are
largely conforming amendments, and
are described below, along with other
proposed minor changes to the Phase 1
compliance program. We note, however,
that we are not reopening the Phase 1
rules in a general sense, nor are we
requesting comment on the stringency
of the Phase 1 standards or other
fundamental aspects of the Phase 1
program.
874 Committee to Assess Fuel Economy
Technologies for Medium- and Heavy-Duty
Vehicles; National Research Council;
Transportation Research Board (2010).
‘‘Technologies and Approaches to Reducing the
Fuel Consumption of Medium- and Heavy-Duty
Vehicles,’’ (‘‘NAS Report’’), at page 9. Washington,
DC, The National Academies Press. Contract
DTNH22–08–H–00222. Available electronically
from the National Academy Press Web site at https://
www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record.id=12845 (last
accessed September 10, 2014.)
875 Id. at 177.
876 Phase 2 First Report at 14, Recommendation
1.8.
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A. EPA Amendments
(1) Pickups and Vans
EPA is proposing to relocate the GHG
standards and other regulatory
provisions for chassis-certified HD
pickups and vans in the Code of Federal
Regulations from 40 CFR 1037.104 to 40
CFR 86.1819–14. Accordingly, NHTSA
will modify any of EPA’s references in
49 CFR parts 523 and 535 to
accommodate the migration. EPA is
making this change largely to address
ambiguities regarding the application of
additional provisions from 40 CFR part
86, subpart S, for these vehicles. The
approach in 40 CFR 1037.104 was to
state that all of 40 CFR part 86, subpart
S, applies except as specified in 40 CFR
1037.104; however, the recent standards
adopted for light-duty vehicles and
light-duty trucks included several
changes to 40 CFR part 86, subpart S,
that should not apply for chassiscertified HD pickups and vans. Based on
our experience implementing the Phase
1 program, we believe it is appropriate
to include the GHG standards for
chassis-certified HD pickups and vans
in the same part as light-duty vehicles
(40 CFR part 86, subpart S). All other
certification requirements for these
heavy-duty vehicles—criteria exhaust
standards, evaporative and refueling
standards, provisions for onboard
diagnostics, and the range of
certification and compliance
provisions—are in that subpart. We note
that we have not experienced the same
challenges for other heavy-duty
vehicles, and are therefore not
proposing to relocate the other
provisions of 40 CFR part 1037.
This migration has highlighted a few
areas where we need to clarify how the
regulations apply for chassis-certified
HD pickups and vans. In particular, EPA
is proposing to make the following
changes:
• Clarify that the GHG standards apply
at high-altitude conditions
• State that fleet-average calculation of
carbon-related exhaust emissions
(CREE) is not required for chassiscertified HD pickups and vans
• Clarify that requirements related to
model types and production-weighted
average calculation apply on any
passenger automobiles and light
trucks
• State that the credit and debit
provisions of 40 CFR 86.1865–12(k)(5)
do not apply for chassis-certified HD
pickups and vans
Clarify that the Temporary Lead Time
Allowance Alternative Standards in
40 CFR 86.1865–12(k)(7) do not apply
for chassis-certified HD pickups and
vans
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• State that the early credit provisions
of 40 CFR 86.1866–12, 86.1867–12,
86.1868–12, 86.1869–12, 86.1870–12,
and 86.1871–12 do not apply for
chassis-certified HD pickups and vans
(2) Heavy-Duty Engines
As described in Section II, EPA is
proposing to revise the approach to
classifying gaseous-fuel engines with
respect to both GHG and criteria
emission standards. This does not affect
the vehicle-based standards that apply
under 40 CFR part 1037. The general
approach would be to continue to
divide these engines into spark-ignition
and compression-ignition categories, but
we propose to always apply the
compression-ignition standards to
gaseous-fuel engines that qualify as
medium heavy-duty or heavy heavyduty engines. Currently, any gaseousfuel engine derived from a gasoline
engine would be subject to the sparkignition standards no matter the weight
class of the vehicle. As described in
Section II, EPA now believes this
approach does not reflect the reality that
gaseous-fuel engines used in Class 6, 7,
or 8 vehicles compete with diesel
engines rather than gasoline engines.
Such engines compete directly with
diesel engines, and we believe they
should be required to meet the same
emission standards. Because all current
gaseous-fuel engines for these large
vehicles are already being certified to
the compression-ignition engine
standards we can propose to also apply
this approach to engines subject to the
HD GHG Phase 1 standards without
adverse impacts on any manufacturers.
EPA is also proposing to revise the
regulation to spell out how to apply
enforcement liability for a situation in
which the engine manufacturer uses
deficit credits for one or more model
years. Simply put, any time an engine
manufacturer is allowed to carry a
deficit to the next year, all enforcement
liability for the engines that generated
the deficit are extended for another year.
These provisions are the same as what
we have already adopted for heavy-duty
vehicles subject to GHG standards under
40 CFR part 1037.
(3) Evaporative Emission Testing for
LNG Vehicles
Heavy-duty vehicles fueled by natural
gas have for many years been subject to
evaporative emission standards and test
procedures. While fuel systems
containing gasoline require extensive
design features to handle vented fuel,
fuel systems containing natural gas
generally prevent evaporative losses by
remaining sealed. In the case of
compressed natural gas, there is a
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voluntary consensus standard, ANSI
NGV1–2006, that is designed to ensure
that there are no leaks or losses during
a refueling event. Since compressed
natural gas systems remain sealed
indefinitely once the refueling event is
complete, we understand that
complying with the ANSI refueling
standard is sufficient to demonstrate
that the vehicle also complies with all
applicable evaporative emission
standards. The Light-Duty Tier 3 final
rule included provisions to clarify that
compressed natural gas systems meeting
the applicable ANSI standard are
deemed to comply with EPA’s
evaporative emission standards.
Systems using liquefied natural gas
(LNG) behave similarly, except that the
cryogenically stored fuel needs to be
vented to prevent an over-pressure
situation if the vehicle is not used for an
extended time, as described in Section
XI. Such vehicles are currently subject
to evaporative emission standards and
test procedures, though there are some
substantial questions about how one can
best apply the procedures to these
systems; not all of the instructions about
preconditioning the vehicle are
straightforward for cryogenic fuel
systems with no evaporative canister.
EPA is interested in pursuing an
approach that is similar to what applies
for compressed natural gas systems,
which would need some additional
attention to address boil-off emissions.
There are two voluntary consensus
standards that specify recommended
practices to lengthen the time before
boil-off starts to occur for LNG systems.
SAE J2343 specifies a minimum fiveday hold time and NFPA 52 specifies a
minimum three-day hold time. EPA is
proposing to require that manufacturers
of LNG vehicles meet the SAE J2343
standard as a means of demonstrating
compliance with the evaporative
emission standards.
While the hold-time requirements of
SAE J2343 and NFPA 52 are clear, there
appears to be very little description of
the procedure to determine how much
time passes between a refueling event
and initial venting. To ensure that all
manufacturers are subject to the same
set of requirements, we are proposing to
include a minimal set of specifications
corresponding to the demonstration
under SAE J2343. In particular, EPA
proposes to specify that the vehicle
must remain parked throughout the
measurement procedure, ambient
temperatures must remain between 20
and 30 °C, the refueling event must
follow conventional procedures
corresponding to the vehicle’s
hardware, and no stabilization step is
allowed after the refueling event.
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The proposed rules provides for
relying on compliance with SAE J2343
as a means of demonstrating compliance
with evaporative emission standards
immediately upon completion of the
final rule. EPA is proposing to make this
mandatory for vehicles produced on or
after January 1, 2020.
EPA requests comment on all aspects
of the proposed provisions for LNG
vehicles.
flexibility was not used in setting the
level of the Phase 1 standards.
• Clarify how EPA would conduct
selective enforcement audits (SEAs) for
engines (in 40 CFR 1036.301) and
vehicles (in 40 CFR 1037.301) with
respect to GHG emissions.
(4) Compliance and Other General
Provisions
In Phase 1, the agencies intended
GHG and fuel consumption standards
for segments of the National Program to
be in alignment so that manufacturers
would not be required to build vehicles
to meet in equivalent standards. Despite
the intent, NHTSA and EPA have
identified several scenarios where
credits and compliance to both sets of
standards are not aligned. This
misalignment can have various impacts
on compliance with the National
Program.
For example, a manufacturer of
tractors could have two vehicle families
that with same number of vehicles but
with opposite and equal compliance
margins with standards. In this scenario,
the first family would over-comply with
the GHG standard while the second
family would under-comply with the
GHG standard by the same amount of
grams CO2/ton-mile. In calculating
credits, the manufacturer would have a
net of zero GHG credits and exactly
meet compliance; however, based on
conversions and rounding of the
standard and performance results that
manufacturer could end up earning
credits or having a credit deficit under
NHTSA’s fuel efficiency program.
In order to correct this misalignment,
NHTSA is proposing to amend the
existing fuel consumption standards
and the method for calculating
performance values for all compliance
categories by increasing the significant
digits in these conversion values.
Increasing the significant digits in these
values will result in more precise
alignment when converting from GHG
consumption standards to fuel
consumption standards.
The rounding approach differs for
heavy-duty pickup trucks and vans set
apart from other vehicle and engine
compliance categories. Heavy Duty
Pickup Trucks and Vans (HD PUV) use
the same approach for calculating
standards and performance values as the
LD CAFE and GHG programs. As such,
NHTSA proposes to increase the
required significant values for each
components used in these calculations.
More specifically, NHTSA proposes to
increase the number of decimal places
for sub-configuration target standards,
EPA proposes the following changes
that apply broadly for different types of
vehicles or engines:
• Add a requirement for vehicle
manufacturers that sell incomplete
vehicles to secondary vehicle
manufacturers to provide emissionrelated assembly instructions to ensure
that the completed vehicle will be in a
certified configuration.
• Specify parameters for determining
a vehicle’s curb weight, consistent with
current practice for vehicles certified
under 40 CFR part 86, subpart S.
• Revise the recordkeeping
requirement to specify a uniform eightyear retention period for all data
supporting an application for
certification. The provision allowing for
one-year retention for ‘‘routine data’’ is
no longer necessary now that data
collection is all recorded in electronic
format. EPA is also clarifying that the
eight-year retention period is calculated
relative to the latest associated
application for certification, not from
the date the data were generated.
• Change the rounding for
analytically derived CO2 emission rates
and target values from the nearest 0.1 g/
mile to the nearest 1 g/mile.
• Clarify that manufacturers may not
amend an application for certification
after the end of the model year, other
than to revise maintenance instructions
or family emission limits, as allowed
under the regulations. Remove the
general recordkeeping provisions from
40 CFR 1037.735 that are already
described in 40 CFR 1037.825.
• Require a different equation with a
ratio of 0.8330 in 40 CFR 1037.521(f)
when full yaw sweep measurements are
used to determine wind averaged drag
correction to establish an equivalent
method to the equation using ±6 degree
measurements (note that this cite is
proposed to be redesignated as 40 CFR
1037.525(d)). This proposed change
would not impact stringency because
manufacturers are already subject to
compliance using both methods—full
yaw sweep and ±6 degree
measurements. In addition, this Phase 1
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B. Other Compliance Provisions for
NHTSA
(1) Standards and Credit Alignment
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the sub-configuration fuel
consumptions, the fleet average target
standard and the fleet average fuel
consumption values from two fixed
values and increases them by one
additional significant digit. The
regulation currently specifies rounding
to these values nearest 0.01 and under
the proposed approach the values
would be rounded to the nearest 0.001.
NHTSA is also proposing to modify
the c and d target coefficients used for
deriving HD PUV target standards.
These values are directly convertible
from the EPA a and b target coefficients,
respectively. Currently, the c target
coefficient contains six decimal places
and the d target coefficient contains two
decimal places. Each coefficient would
be increased by one decimal—meaning
the c target coefficient would have
seven decimal places, with the last four
being significant digits—and the d target
coefficient would be increased to three
decimal places, with there being a total
of four significant digits. The
modifications to the rounding and level
of precision of these six values will not
entirely eliminate the misalignment of
the credits being calculated for EPA and
NHTSA but will reduce it to an
insignificant variance.
For other compliance categories, a
similar approach can be used to address
the misalignment of calculated credits
as it pertains to vocational vehicles,
tractors, and heavy duty engines.
NHTSA proposes to increase the
number of significant digits by
increasing the decimal places contained
in the standards and the FEL for the
vocational vehicle and tractor segments
and the FCL for the engine segments to
four decimal places. Currently, the
vocational vehicle and tractor standards
and FELs contain one decimal place
while engines standards and FELs
contain two decimal places. The
standards will be identified directly in
the regulation while the FEL and FCL
will be a calculated value rounded to
the nearest 0.0001.
The modifications to the rounding
and level of precision of these values
should eliminate the misalignment of
the credits being calculated.
These changes are planned for
implementation retroactively starting for
the model year 2013 standard. However,
because the stringency of the Phase 1
fuel consumption standards may be
adversely impacted for certain
manufacturers who have already
developed engineering plans
considering previous credit balance, we
propose to seek comments on whether
optional compliance should be allowed.
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(2) Off-Road Exclusion Petition Process
for Tractors and Vocational Vehicles
In the Phase 1 final rule, the agencies
added provisions for certain types of
vocational tractors and vocational
vehicles that operate off-road to be
exempt from standards, although
standards would still apply to the
engines installed in these vehicles. An
exemption was warranted because these
vehicles operate in a manner essentially
making them incompatible with fuel
saving and emission reduction
technologies, such as performing work
in an off-road environment, being speed
restricted, or having off-road
components or other features making
them incompatible for roadways. For
the Phase 1 program, off-road vehicle
manufacturers meeting the exemption
provisions are required to provide EPA
and NHTSA, through the EPA database,
a report within 90 days after the end of
each model year identifying its off-road
vehicles. The report must provide a
description of each excluded vehicle
configuration, including an explanation
of why it qualifies for the exclusion and
the production volume. A manufacturer
having an off-road vehicle failing to
meet the criteria under the agencies’ offroad exemptions explained in 40 CFR
1037.631 and 49 CFR 523.6 is allowed
to submit a petition as required in 49
CFR 535.8 describing how and why its
vehicles should qualify for exclusion.
Under Phase 1 compliance processes,
manufacturers have not been using the
petitioning process when seeking
clarification on off-road vehicles not
meeting the strict interpretation of the
provision. Instead, manufacturers are
submitting information to EPA in
advance of the end of the model year to
determine whether or not these vehicles
are exempted and to determine whether
it is necessary to submit any
applications for certificates of
conformity as required by 40 CFR
1037.201. EPA and NHTSA
collaboratively determine whether
manufacturers are exempted and EPA
shares the decision with the
manufacturer. The current process
followed by the agencies makes it
unnecessary to use the petitioning
process and has the added advantage of
providing a joint determine early
enough in the model year whereas
disapproved manufacturer have
adequate enough time to submit
applications for certificates of
conformity.
For the Phase 1 standards, the
agencies are proposing to delete the
petitioning process and add provisions
for manufacturers seeking clarification
on the qualifications of an off-road
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vehicle exemption to send information
to the agencies through EPA in advance
of the model year in order for us to
make an appropriate determination.
EPA plans to add these provisions into
its regulations as a part of 40 CFR
1037.150(h). Removal of the formal
petition process is intended to minimize
the impact on manufacturers that are
seeking an off-road exemption while
allowing the agencies to be proactive in
making a determination based on the
criteria and individual merits of the
vehicles being requested for an
exemption. Collaboration between the
agencies in making a decision about
exemptions outside a formal petition
process should streamline the timing for
a response and reduce the burden upon
the agencies and manufacturers.
(3) Innovative Technology Request
Documentation Specifications
For vehicle and engine technologies
that can reduce GHG and fuel
consumption, but for which there is not
yet an established method for
quantifying reductions, the agencies
encourage the development of such
technologies through providing
‘‘innovative technology’’ credits.
Manufacturers seeking innovative
technology credits must quantify the
reductions in fuel consumption and
GHG emissions that the technology is
expected to achieve, above and beyond
those achieved on the existing test
procedures.
Manufacturers submitting innovative
technology requests must send a
detailed description of the technology
and a recommended test plan to EPA as
detailed in 40 CFR 1036.610 and 40 CFR
1037.610. The test plan must include
whether the manufacturer is applying
for credits using the improvement factor
method or the separate-credit method. It
is recommended that manufacturers not
conduct testing until the agencies can
collaboratively approve the test plan in
which a determination is made on the
qualification of the technology as
innovative. EPA and NHTSA also make
the decision at that time whether to seek
public comments on the test plan if
there are unknown factors in the test
methodology.
Under the current regulations, EPA
and NHTSA have reviewed several test
plans from manufacturers seeking
innovative technology credits. The
agencies have received feedback from
manufacturers that the final approval
process is not clearly defined, which
has caused a substantial time
commitment from manufacturers. To
address this feedback, the agencies are
proposing to add further clarification in
40 CFR 1036.610 and 40 CFR 1037.610
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defining the steps manufacturers must
follow after an approval is granted for a
test plan. This includes specifications
for submitting the final documentation
to the agencies for final approval and for
determining credit amounts. The
agencies are adding the same level of
detail as required for the final
documentation required in EPA’s light
duty off-cycle program in 40 CFR
86.1869–12(e)(2). These specifications
should provide manufacturers with a
clear understanding of the required
documentation and approval process to
reduce the time burden placed on
manufacturers.
NHTSA also proposes to add similar
provisions from its light duty CAFE
program specified in 49 CFR 531.6(b)(2)
and 533(c)(2) for limiting the approval
of innovative technologies under its
program for those technologies related
to crash-avoidance technologies, safety
critical systems or systems affecting
safety-critical functions, or technologies
designed for the purpose of reducing the
frequency of vehicle crashes. NHTSA
prohibited credits for these technologies
under any circumstances in its CAFE
program (see 77 FR 62730). NHTSA
believes a similar strategy is warranted
for heavy-duty vehicle as well. Further,
the evaluation of crash avoidance
technologies is better addressed under
NHTSA’s vehicle safety authority than
under a case-by-case innovative
technology credit process.
(4) Credit Acquisition Plan
Requirements
The National Program was designed
to provide manufacturers with
averaging, banking and trading (ABT)
flexibilities for meeting the GHG and
fuel efficiency standards to optimize the
effectiveness of the program. As a part
of these flexibilities, manufacturers
generating a shortfall in fuel
consumption credits for a given model
year must submit a credit plan to
NHTSA describing how it plans to
resolve its deficits within 3 models year.
To assist manufacturers, NHTSA is
proposing to modify 49 CFR 535.9(a)(6)
of its regulation to clarify and provide
guidance to manufacturers on the
requirements for a credit allocation plan
which contains provisions to acquire
credits from another manufacturer
which will be earned in future model
years.
The current regulations do not specify
if future credit acquisition is permitted
or not and the revision is intended to
clarity that it is, with respect to the
limitation a credit shortfall can only be
carried forward three years. Providing
this clarification is intended to increase
transparency within the program and
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ensure all manufacturers are aware of its
available flexibilities.
In addition to providing this
clarification, the regulation is also being
amended to outline the requirement that
in order for a credit allocation plan
containing this provision to be reviewed
for approval, NHTSA will require an
agreement signed by both
manufacturers. This requirement will
assist NHTSA with its determination
that the credits will become available to
the acquiring manufacturer given they
are earned.
(5) New Vehicle Field Inspections and
Recordkeeping Requirements
Previously, NHTSA decided not to
include recordkeeping provisions in its
regulations for the Phase 1 program.
EPA regulations include recordkeeping
requirements in 40 CFR 1036.250,
1036.735, 1036.835, 1037.250, 1037.735,
and 1037.835. For the Phase 2 program,
NHTSA is proposing to add
recordkeeping provisions to facilitate its
compliance validation program. For the
Phase 1 program, manufacturers test and
conduct modeling to determine GHG
emissions and fuel consumption
performance, and EPA and NHTSA
perform validation testing. EPA uses the
results of the validation tests to create
a finalized report that confirms the
manufacturer’s final model year GHG
emissions and fuel consumption results.
Each agency will use this report to
enforce compliance with its standards.
NHTSA assesses compliance with fuel
consumption standards each year, based
upon EPA final verified data submitted
to NHTSA for its heavy-duty vehicle
fuel efficiency program established
pursuant to 49 U.S.C. 32902(k). NHTSA
may also conduct verification testing
throughout a given model year in order
to validate data received from
manufacturers and will discuss any
potential issues with EPA and the
manufacturer. See 49 CFR 535.9. After
the end of the model year, NHTSA may
also decide to conduct field inspections
in order to confirm whether or not a
new vehicle was manufactured as
originally certified. NHTSA may
conduct field inspections separately or
in coordination with EPA. To facilitate
inspections, the agencies propose to add
additional provisions to the EPA
recordkeeping provisions to require
manufacturers to keep build documents
for each manufactured tractor or
vocational vehicle. Each build
document would be required to contain
specific information on the design,
manufacturing, equipment and certified
components for a vehicle. NHTSA
would request build documents through
EPA and the agencies would collaborate
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on the finding of all field inspections.
Manufacturers would be required to
keep records of build documents for a
period of 8 calendar years.
XIV. Other Proposed Regulatory
Provisions
In addition to the new GHG standards
proposed in these rules, EPA and
NHTSA are proposing to amend various
aspects of the regulations as part of the
HD GHG Phase 1 standards for heavyduty highway engines and vehicles.
EPA is also taking the opportunity to
propose to amend regulatory provisions
for other requirements that apply for
heavy-duty highway engines, and for
certain types of nonroad engines and
equipment. NHTSA is also proposing to
amend its regulations to require
electronic submission of data for the
CAFE program.
A. Proposed Amendments Related to
Heavy-Duty Highway Engines and
Vehicles
This section describes a range of
proposed regulatory amendments for
heavy-duty highway engines and
vehicles that are not directly related to
GHG emission standards. Section XIV.D
describes additional changes related to
test procedures that affect heavy-duty
highway engines.
(1) Alternate Emission Standards for
Specialty Heavy-Duty Vehicles
Motor vehicles conventionally
comprise a familiar set of vehicles
within a relatively narrow set of
parameters—motorcycles, cars, light
trucks, heavy trucks, buses, etc. The
definition of ‘‘motor vehicle;’’ however,
is written broadly to include a very
wide range of vehicles. Almost any
vehicle that can be safely operated on
streets and highways is considered a
motor vehicle. Development of EPA’s
emission control programs is generally
focused on a consideration of the
technology, characteristics, and
operating parameters of conventional
vehicles, and typically includes efforts
to address concerns for special cases.
For example, the driving schedule for
light-duty vehicles includes a variation
for vehicles that are not capable of
reaching the maximum speeds specified
in the Federal Test Procedure.
Industry innovation in some cases
leads to some configurations that make
it particularly challenging to meet
regulatory requirements. We are aware
that plug-in hybrid-electric heavy-duty
vehicles are an example of this. An
engine for such a vehicle would be
expected to have a much lower power
rating and duty cycle of engine speeds
and loads than a conventional heavy-
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duty engine. The costs of regulatory
compliance and the mismatch to the
specified duty cycle can make it costprohibitive for engine manufacturers to
certify such an engine under the heavyduty highway engine program. EPA’s
nonroad emission standards have
reached a point that involves near parity
with the level of emission control
represented by the emission standards
for heavy-duty highway engines.
To address concerns about certifying
heavy-duty engines to highway
standards for use in hybrid vehicles, we
are therefore proposing to allow
manufacturers of heavy-duty highway
vehicles the option to install limited
numbers of engines certified to alternate
standards. Qualifying engines would be
considered motor vehicle engines, but
they would be certified to standards that
are equivalent to those adopted for
comparable nonroad engines. Vehicles
with hybrid powertrains would be a
focus of this allowance. EPA believes
the same principles apply for
amphibious vehicles and for vehicles
with maximum speed at or below 45
miles per hour and we are therefore
proposing to apply the same provisions
to these additional vehicles.
Under this approach, compressionignition engines could be certified to
alternate standards that are equivalent
to the emission standards under 40 CFR
part 1039, and spark-ignition engines
could be certified to alternate standards
that are equivalent to the Blue Sky
emission standards under 40 CFR part
1048. Engines meeting these alternate
emission standards would generally be
expected to use the same technologies to
control emissions as engines certified to
the applicable emission standards for
heavy-duty highway engines. EPA
would disallow this approach for
compression-ignition engines below 56
kW since the nonroad standards for
those engines are substantially less
stringent than the standards that apply
for heavy-duty highway engines. Also,
since the nonroad duty cycles would
generally better represent the in-use
operating characteristics of these
vehicles, we would expect the nonroad
test procedures to be at least as effective
in achieving effective in-use emission
control. The regulations at 40 CFR part
1048 include a simplified form of
diagnostic controls, and we are
proposing in these rules to include
simplified diagnostic controls for 40
CFR part 1039. These engine-based
diagnostic controls would substitute for
the diagnostic requirements that would
otherwise apply under 40 CFR 86.010–
18.
It may also be appropriate to allow
manufacturers of such heavy-duty
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vehicles to use an engine from a smaller
vehicle that is already covered by
chassis-based certification under 40 CFR
part 86, subpart S. Many of the heavyduty vehicles described under this
section would be adequately powered
by lower-displacement automotive
engines, and the level of emission
control would clearly be expected to
match or exceed that of engines certified
to the heavy-duty standards that would
otherwise apply. However, engines used
in chassis-certified vehicles involve
some degree of calibration that relates
engine operation to vehicle parameters.
Adapting these engines to heavy-duty
vehicles would therefore require some
recalibration, which could involve
changing the effectiveness of emission
controls. It is also unclear how the
heavy-duty vehicle would be designed
for onboard diagnostic controls. EPA
requests comment on the technical and
regulatory issues surrounding the use of
engines from chassis-certified vehicles
in certain heavy-duty vehicles.
These alternate standards relate only
to the engine certification-based
emission standards and certification
requirements. All vehicle-based
requirements for evaporative and
greenhouse gas emissions would
continue to apply as specified in the
regulation.
This allowance is intended to lower
the barrier to introducing innovative
technology for motor vehicles. It is not
intended to provide a full alternative
compliance path to avoid certifying to
the emission standards and control
requirements for highway engines and
vehicles. To accomplish this, EPA is
proposing to allow a manufacturer to
produce no more than 1,000 hybrid
vehicles in a single model year under
this program, and no more than 200
amphibious vehicles or speed-limited
vehicles.
California ARB is in the process of
developing similar provisions for a
reduced compliance burden for a
limited number of highway vehicles
toward the goal of incentivizing hybrid
vehicles and other advanced
technology. EPA expects to be involved
in that policy development and would
be interested in aligning programs as
much as possible. It may be necessary
or appropriate for the final rule to
include a reference to any new policy
that has been adopted by California ARB
in the meantime.
EPA requests comment on all aspects
of this program to create alternate
motor-vehicle emission standards that
allow certified nonroad engines to be
used in the identified types of heavyduty highway vehicles.
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(2) Chassis Certification of Class 4
Heavy-Duty Vehicles
In the HD Phase 1 rule, the agencies
included a provision allowing
manufacturers to certify Class 4 and
larger heavy-duty vehicles to the
chassis-based emission standards in 40
CFR part 86, subpart S. This applied for
greenhouse gas emission standards, but
not criteria emission standards. EPA
revisited this issue in the recent Tier 3
final rule, where we revised the
regulation to allow this same flexibility
relative to exhaust emission standards
for criteria pollutants. However, this
change to the regulation conflicted with
our response to a comment in that
rulemaking that EPA should not change
the certification arrangement for criteria
pollutants.
Manufacturers have taken opposing
views of the proper approach for
vehicles above 14,000 lbs GVWR. EPA
requests comment on how best to
address this issue in a way that resolves
the various and competing concerns. In
particular, EPA requests comment on
the following specific areas of interest:
• Should EPA treat 14,000 lbs as a
bright line to disallow any certification
of larger vehicles to the chassis-based
exhaust emission standards?
• Should EPA allow for certifying the
larger vehicles to the chassis-based
standards, but identify certain criteria to
narrow the scope of this allowance? For
example, EPA could limit this to
compression-ignition or spark-ignition
engines, we could identify a maximum
GVWR value above which chassis-based
certification is not allowed, or EPA
could limit this allowance to vehicles
that share design characteristics with
chassis-certified vehicles below 14,000
lbs GVWR (as California ARB has done).
• If EPA allows for certifying the
larger vehicles to the chassis-based
standards, what additional amendments
are needed to clarify how to apply the
requirements of 40 CFR part 86, subpart
S? For example, some further
specification may be needed to identify
how to apply requirements related to
emission standards, driving schedule,
and emission credits?
(3) On-Board Diagnostics for HeavyDuty Vehicles
EPA defines the onboard diagnostic
requirements for heavy-duty vehicles
above 14,000 lbs GVWR in 40 CFR
86.010–18, but we allow manufacturers
to meet OBD requirements based on the
requirements adopted by the California
Air Resources Board. Manufacturers in
almost all cases certify based on the
California procedures instead of EPA
procedures. Certification based on EPA
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procedures is limited to certain sparkignition engine families whose
certification is limited to states other
than California. EPA requests comment
on a change to EPA regulation that
simply requires that manufacturers meet
the California requirements. EPA has
taken a similar approach for vehicles at
or below 14,000 lbs GVWR, as described
in 40 CFR 86.1806–17. Under this
approach, EPA would recognize
California ARB’s approval as valid for
EPA certification. EPA requests
comment on this approach. In
particular, EPA requests comment on
the need to preserve EPA specifications
for on-board diagnostics for any special
situations, and on the need to make any
adjustments or allowances from the
California ARB regulations to work for
EPA implementation.
(4) Nonconformance Penalties (NCPs)
The Clean Air Act requires that
heavy-duty standards for criteria
pollutants such as NOX must reflect the
greatest degree of emission reduction
achievable through the application of
technology that EPA determines will be
available. Such ‘‘technology-forcing’’
standards create the risk that one or
more manufacturers may lag behind in
the development of their technology to
meet the standard and, thus, be forced
out of the marketplace. Recognizing this
risk, Congress enacted CAA section
206(g) (42 U.S.C. 7525(g)), which
requires EPA to establish
‘‘nonconformance penalties’’ to protect
these technological laggards by allowing
them to pay a penalty for engines that
temporarily are unable to meet the
applicable emission standard, while
removing any competitive advantage
those technological laggards may have.
On September 5, 2012, EPA adopted
final NCPs for heavy heavy-duty diesel
engines that could be used by
manufacturers of heavy-duty diesel
engines unable to meet the current
oxides of nitrogen (NOX) emission
standard. On December 11, 2013, the
U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of
Columbia Circuit issued an opinion
vacating that Final Rule. It issued its
mandate for this decision on April 16,
2014, ending the availability of the
NCPs for the current NOX standard, as
well as vacating certain amendments to
the NCP regulations due to concerns
about inadequate notice. In particular,
the amendments revise the text
explaining how EPA determines when
NCP should be made available. EPA is
proposing to remove the vacated
regulatory text specifying penalties, and
re-proposing most of the other vacated
amendments to provide fuller notice.
Finally, EPA is proposing a new 40 CFR
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86.1103–2016 to replace the existing 40
CFR 86.1103–87.
(a) Vacated Penalties
In EPA’s regulations, NCP penalties
are calculated from inputs specific to
the standards for which NCPs are
available. The input values are specified
in 40 CFR 86.1105–87. EPA is proposing
to remove paragraph (j) of this section
which specifies the vacated inputs for
the 2010 NOX emission standard. EPA
does not request comment on this
change because this text has already
been vacated by the Court. Since all
manufacturers are currently complying
with these standards, the text also no
longer has any purpose.
(b) Re-Proposed Text
The 2012 rule made amendments to
four different sections in 40 CFR part
86. The amendments to 40 CFR
86.1104–91 and 86.1113–87 were
supported during the rulemaking and
were not questioned in the Court’s
decision. Nevertheless, these revisions
were vacated along with the rest of the
rule. EPA is re-proposing these changes.
Since we are proposing to vacate and
restore the regulatory text, the proposal
consists of leaving these sections of the
regulations unchanged.
(i) Upper Limits
The changes to 40 CFR 86.1104–91
affected the upper limit. The upper limit
(UL) is the emission level established by
regulation above which NCPs are not
available. A heavy duty engine cannot
use NCPs to be certified for a level
above the upper limit. CAA section
206(g)(2) refers to the upper limit as a
percentage above the emission standard,
set by regulation, that corresponds to an
emission level EPA determines to be
‘‘practicable.’’ The upper limit is an
important aspect of the NCP regulations
not only because it establishes an
emission level above which no engine
may be certified using NCPs, but it is
also a critical component of the cost
analysis used to develop the penalty
rates. The regulations specify that the
relevant costs for determining the
COC50 and the COC90 factors are the
difference between an engine at the
upper limit and one that meets the
applicable standards (see 40 CFR
86.1113–87).
The regulatory approach adopted
under the prior NCP rules sets the upper
limit at the prior emission standard
when a prior emission standard exists
and is then changed to become more
stringent. EPA concluded that this
upper limit should be reasonably
achievable by all manufacturers with
engines or vehicles in the relevant class.
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It should be within reach of all
manufacturers of HD engines or HD
vehicles that are currently allowed so
that they can continue to sell their
engines and vehicles while finishing
their development of fully complying
engines. A manufacturer of a previously
certified engine or vehicle should not be
forced to immediately remove a HD
engine or vehicle from the market when
an emission standard becomes more
stringent. The prior emission standard
generally meets these goals because
manufactures have already certified
their vehicles to that standard.
EPA proposes to revise the regulations
in 40 CFR 86.1104–91 to clarify that
EPA may set the upper limit at a level
below the previous standard if we
determine that the lower level is
achievable by all engines or vehicles in
the relevant subclass. This was the case
for the vacated NCP rule. EPA also
proposes that we may set the upper
limit at a level above the previous
standard in unusual circumstances,
such as where a new standard for a
different pollutant or other requirement
effectively increases the stringency of
the standard for which NCPs would
apply. This occurred for heavy heavyduty engines with the 2004 standards.
(ii) Payment of Penalties
The proposed changes to 40 CFR
86.1113–87 correct EPA organizational
units and mail codes to which
manufacturers must send information.
The previous information is no longer
valid.
(c) Criteria for the Availability of NCPs
Since the promulgation of the first
NCP rule in 1985, subsequent NCP rules
generally have been described as
continuing ‘‘phases’’ of the initial NCP
rule. The first NCP rule (Phase I),
sometimes referred to as the ‘‘generic’’
NCP rule, established three basic criteria
for determining the eligibility of
emission standards for nonconformance
penalties in any given model year (50
FR 35374, August 30, 1985). (For
regulatory language, see 40 CFR
86.1103–87). The first criterion is that
the emission standard in question must
become more difficult to meet. This can
occur in two ways, either by the
emission standard itself becoming more
stringent, or due to its interaction with
another emission standard that has
become more stringent. Second,
substantial work must be required in
order to meet the emission standard.
EPA considers ‘‘substantial work’’ to
mean the application of technology not
previously used in that vehicle or
engine class/subclass, or a significant
modification of existing technology, in
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order to bring that vehicle/engine into
compliance. EPA does not consider
minor modifications or calibration
changes to be classified as substantial
work. Third, EPA must find that a
manufacturer is likely to be
noncomplying for technological reasons
(referred to in earlier rules as a
‘‘technological laggard’’). Prior NCP
rules have considered such a
technological laggard to be a
manufacturer who cannot meet a
particular emission standard due to
technological (not economic) difficulties
and who, in the absence of NCPs, might
be forced from the marketplace. During
the 2012 rulemaking, some commenters
raised issues relating to EPA’s
interpretation of these criteria:
• The extent to which the criteria are
intended to constrain EPA’s ability to
set NCPs
• The timing for evaluating the criteria
• The meaning of technological laggard
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(i) Constraints on EPA
Several commenters argued
(implicitly or explicitly) that EPA
cannot establish NCPs unless all of the
regulatory criteria for NCPs (in 40 CFR
86.1103–87) are met. Some went further
to argue that EPA must demonstrate that
the criteria are met. However, the actual
regulatory text has never stated that EPA
may establish NCPs only if all criteria
are met, but rather that EPA shall
establish NCPs ‘‘provided that EPA
finds’’ the criteria are met. These criteria
were included in the regulations to
clarify that manufacturers should not
expect EPA to initiate a rulemaking to
establish NCPs where these criteria were
not met. Moreover, the regulations
clearly defer to EPA’s judgment for
finding that the criteria are met. While
EPA must explain the basis of our
finding, the regulatory language does
not require us to prove or demonstrate
that the criteria are met.
This interpretation is consistent with
the text of the Clean Air Act, which
places no explicit restrictions on when
EPA can set NCPs. In fact, it seems to
create a presumption that NCPs will be
available. The Act actually requires EPA
to allow certification of engines that do
not meet the standard unless EPA
determines the practicable upper limit
to be equal to the new emission
standard.
To address this confusion, the new
proposed regulatory text would
explicitly state that where EPA cannot
determine if all of the criteria have been
met, we may presume that they have. In
other words, EPA does not have the
burden to prove they have been met.
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(ii) Timing for Evaluating Criteria
In order to properly understand the
appropriate timing for evaluating each
of the NCP criteria, it is necessary to
understand the purpose of each. When
considered together, these criteria
evaluate the likelihood that a
manufacturer will be technologically
unable to meet a standard on time.
However, when EPA initially proposed
the NCP criteria, we noted that the first
two criteria addressed whether there
was a possibility for a technological
laggard to develop. When the first
criterion is met, it creates the possibility
for a technological laggard to exist.
When manufacturers must perform
substantial work, it is possible that at
least one will be unsuccessful and will
become a laggard. Thus, when
evaluating these first two criteria, the
purpose is to determine whether the
standard created the possibility for a
laggard to exist. The third criterion is
different because it asks whether that
possibility has turned into a likelihood
that a technological laggard has
developed. For example, a standard may
become significantly more stringent and
substantial effort might be required for
compliance, but all manufacturers may
be meeting the applicable standard. In
that situation, a technological laggard is
not likely and penalties would be
unnecessary.
In this context, it becomes clear that
since the first two of these criteria are
intended to address the question of
whether a given standard creates the
possibility for this to occur, they are
evaluated before the third criterion that
addresses the likelihood that the
possibility will actually happen. In most
cases, it is possible to evaluate these
criteria at the point a new standard is
adopted. This is the value of these
criteria, that they can usually be
evaluated long before there is enough
information to know whether a
technological laggard is actually likely.
For example, where EPA adopts a new
standard that is not technology-forcing,
but rather merely an anti-backsliding
standard, EPA could determine at the
time it is adopted that the second
criterion is not met so that
manufacturers would know in advance
that no NCPs will be made available for
that standard.
One question that arose in the 2012
rule involved how to evaluate the
second criterion if significant time has
passed and some work toward meeting
the standard has already been
completed. To address this question, the
proposed regulations would clarify that
this criterion is to be evaluated based on
actual work needed to go from meeting
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the previous standard to meeting the
current standard, regardless of the
timing of such changes. EPA looks at
whether ‘‘substantial work’’ is or was
required to meet the revised standard at
any time after the standard was issued—
the important question is whether
manufacturers who were using
technology that met the previous
standard would need to build upon that
technology to meet the revised standard.
Other interpretations would seem to be
directly contrary to the purpose of the
statute, which is designed to allow
technological laggards to be able to
certify engines even if other
manufacturers have met the standard.
(iii) Technological Laggards
Questions also arose in 2012 about the
meaning of the term ‘‘technological
laggard’’. While the regulations do not
define ‘‘technological laggard’’, EPA has
previously interpreted this as meaning a
manufacturer who cannot meet the
emission standard due to technological
difficulties, not merely economic
difficulties (67 FR 51464–51465, August
8, 2002). Some have interpreted this to
mean that NCPs cannot be made
available where a manufacturer tries
and fails to meet a standard with one
technology but knew that another
technology would have allowed them to
meet the standard. In other words, that
it made a bad business decision.
However, EPA’s reference to ‘‘economic
difficulties’’ applies where a
technological path exists—at the time
EPA is evaluating the third criterion—
that would allow the manufacturer to
meet the standard on time, but the
manufacturer chooses not to use it for
economic reasons. The key question is
whether or not the technological path
exists at the time of the evaluation. To
address this confusion, the proposed
regulations would clarify that where
there is uncertainty about whether a
failure to meet the standards is a
technological failure, EPA may presume
that it was. Note that this does not mean
that EPA might declare any failure to
meet standards as a technological
failure. It would only apply where it is
not clear.
(5) In-Use Testing
EPA and manufacturers have gained
substantial experience with in-use
testing over the last four or five years.
This has led to important insights in
ways that the test protocol can be
adjusted to be more effective. EPA is
accordingly proposing to make the
following changes to the regulations in
40 CFR part 86, subparts N and T:
• Revise the NTE exclusion based on
aftertreatment temperature to associate
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the exclusion with the specific
aftertreatment device that does not meet
the temperature criterion. For example,
there should be no NOX exclusion if a
diesel oxidation catalyst is below the
temperature threshold. EPA is also
proposing to revise the exclusion to
include accommodation of CO
emissions when there is a problem with
low temperatures in the exhaust.
• Clarify that exhaust temperatures
should be measured continuously to
evaluate whether those temperatures
stay above the 250 °C threshold.
• Add specifications to describe
where to measure temperatures for
exhaust systems with multiple
aftertreatment devices.
• Include a provision to add 0.00042
g/hp-hr to the PM measurement to
account for PM emissions vented to the
atmosphere through the crankcase vent.
• Increase the time allowed for
submitting quarterly reports from 30 to
45 days after the end of the quarter.
(6) Miscellaneous Amendments to 40
CFR Part 86
As described elsewhere, EPA is
proposing to make several changes to 40
CFR part 86. This includes primarily the
GHG standards for Class 2b and 3
heavy-duty vehicles in subpart S. EPA
is also proposing changes related to
hearing procedures, adjustment factors
for infrequent regeneration of
aftertreatment devices, and the testing
program for heavy-duty in-use vehicles.
EPA is proposing to make several
minor amendments to 40 CFR part 86,
subpart A, including the following:
• Revise 40 CFR 86.1823 to extend
the default catalyst thermal reactivity
coefficient for Tier 2 vehicles to also
apply for Tier 3 vehicles. This change
was inadvertently omitted from the
recent Tier 3 rulemaking. EPA is also
interested in a broader review of the
appropriate default value for the catalyst
thermal reactivity coefficient. EPA
would be interested in reviewing any
available data related to this issue. In
any case, EPA would plan to revisit this
question in the future.
• Establish a minimum maintenance
interval of 1500 hours for DEF filters for
heavy-duty engines. This reflects the
technical capabilities for filter durability
and the expected maintenance in the
field.
• Remove the idle CO standard from
40 CFR 86.007–11 and 40 CFR 86.008–
10. This standard no longer applies,
since all engines are now subject to
diagnostic requirements instead of the
idle CO standard.
EPA is also proposing several
amendments to remove obsolete text,
update cross references, and streamline
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redundant regulatory text. For example,
paragraph (f)(3) of Appendix I includes
a duty cycle for heavy-duty sparkignition engines that is no longer
specified as part of the certification
process.
(7) Applying 40 CFR Part 1068 to
Heavy-Duty Highway Engines and
Vehicles
As part of the Phase 1 standards, EPA
applied the exemption and importation
provisions from 40 CFR part 1068,
subparts C and D, to heavy-duty
highway engines and vehicles. EPA also
specified that the defect reporting
provisions of 40 CFR 1068.501 were
optional. In an earlier rulemaking, EPA
applied the selective enforcement
auditing under 40 CFR part 1068,
subpart E (75 FR 22896, April 30, 2010).
EPA is proposing in this rule to adopt
the rest of 40 CFR part 1068 for heavyduty highway engines and vehicles,
with certain exceptions and special
provisions.
40 CFR part 1068 captures a range of
compliance provisions that are common
across our engine and vehicle programs.
These regulatory provisions generally
provide the legal framework for
implementing a certification-based
program. 40 CFR part 1068 works in
tandem with the standard-setting part
for each type of engine/equipment. This
allows EPA to adopt program-specific
provisions for emission standards and
certification requirements for each type
of engine/equipment while taking a
uniform approach to the compliance
provisions that apply generally.
Many of the provisions in 40 CFR part
1068 were originally written to align
with the procedures established in 40
CFR part 85 and part 86. EPA expects
the following provisions from 40 CFR
part 1068 to not involve a substantive
change for heavy-duty highway engines
and vehicles:
• Part 1068, subpart A, describes how
EPA handles confidential information,
how the Administrator may delegate
decision-making within the agency, how
EPA may enter manufacturers’ facilities
for inspections, what information
manufacturers must submit to EPA, and
how EPA may require testing or perform
testing. There is also a description of
labeling requirements that apply
uniformly for different types of engines/
equipment.
• The prohibited acts, penalties,
injunction provisions, and related
requirements of 40 CFR 1068.101 and
1068.125 correspond to what is
specified in Clean Air Act sections 203
through 207 (also see section 213(d)).
• 40 CFR 1068.103 describes how a
certificate of conformity applies on a
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model-year basis. With the exception of
the stockpiling provisions in paragraph
(f), as described below, these provisions
generally mirror what already applies
for heavy-duty highway engines.
• 40 CFR 1068.115 describes
manufacturers’ warranty obligations.
EPA is proposing to amend this section
to more carefully conform to the
warranty provisions in Clean Air Act
section 207, as described below. Note
that EPA also includes a provision
identifying the warranty requirements
from Clean Air Act section 203(a)(4),
which are specific to motor vehicles.
• 40 CFR 1068.120 describes
requirements that apply for rebuilding
engines. This includes more detailed
provisions describing how the rebuild
requirements apply for cases involving
a used engine to replace a certified
engine.
• 40 CFR part 1068, subpart F,
describes procedural requirements for
voluntary and mandatory recalls. As
noted below, EPA is proposing to
modify these regulations to eliminate a
few instances where the part 1068
provisions differ from what is specified
in 40 CFR part 86, subpart S.
• 40 CFR part 1068, subpart G,
describes how EPA would hold a
hearing to consider a manufacturer’s
appeal of an adverse compliance
decision from EPA. These procedures
apply for penalties associated with
violations of the prohibited acts, recall,
nonconformance penalties, and
generally for decisions related to
certification. As noted below, EPA is
proposing to migrate these procedures
from 40 CFR part 86, including an effort
to align with EPA-wide regulations that
apply in the case of a formal hearing.
Manufacturers are already required to
use good engineering judgment in many
cases related to certifying engines under
40 CFR part 86 (see 40 CFR 1068.5).
As noted above, the exemption
provisions of 40 CFR part 1068, subpart
C, already apply for heavy-duty
highway engines. EPA is proposing to
add a clarification that the exemption
from the tampering prohibition for
competition purposes does not apply to
heavy-duty highway vehicles. This
aligns with the statutory provisions for
the racing exemption.
EPA is proposing to require that
manufacturers comply with the defectreporting provisions in 40 CFR
1068.501. Defect reporting under 40
CFR 1068.501 involves a more detailed
approach for manufacturers to track
possible defects and establishes
thresholds to define when
manufacturers must perform an
investigation to determine an actual rate
of emission-related defects. These
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thresholds are scaled according to
production volumes, which allows us to
adopt a uniform protocol for everything
from locomotives to lawn and garden
equipment. Manufacturers that also
produce nonroad engines have already
been following this protocol for several
years. These defect-reporting
requirements are also similar to the
rules that apply in California.
40 CFR part 1068 includes a
definition of ‘‘engine’’ to clarify that an
engine becomes subject to certification
requirements when a crankshaft is
installed in an engine block. At that
point, a manufacturer may not ship the
engine unless it is covered by a
certificate of conformity or an
exemption. Most manufacturers have
opted into this definition of ‘‘engine’’ as
part of the replacement engine
exemption as specified in 40 CFR
85.1714. We are proposing to make this
mandatory for all manufacturers. A
related provision is the definition of
‘‘date of manufacture’’, which we use to
establish that an engine’s model year is
also based on the date of crankshaft
installation. To address the concern that
engine manufacturers would install a
large number of crankshafts before new
emission standards start to apply as a
means of circumventing those
standards, we state in 40 CFR
1068.103(f) that manufacturers must
follow their normal production plans
and schedules for building engines in
anticipation of new emission standards.
In addition to that broad principle, we
state that we will consider engines to be
subject to the standards for the new
model year if engine assembly is not
complete within 30 days after the end
of the model year with the less stringent
standards (a longer time frame applies
for engines with per-cylinder
displacement above 2.5 liters).
40 CFR part 1068 also includes
provisions related to vehicle
manufacturers that install certified
engines. EPA states in 40 CFR
1068.105(b) that vehicle manufacturers
are in violation of the tampering
prohibition if they do not follow the
engine manufacturers’ emission-related
installation instructions, we approve as
part of the certification process.
40 CFR part 1068 also establishes that
vehicles have a model year and that
installing certified engines includes a
requirement that the engine be certified
to emission standards corresponding to
the vehicle’s model year. An exception
to allow for normal production and
build schedules is described in 40 CFR
1068.105(a). This ‘‘normal-inventory’’
allowance is intended to allow for
installation of previous-tier engines that
are produced under a valid certificate by
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the engine manufacturer shortly before
the new emission standards start to
apply. Stockpiling such engines would
be considered an unlawful
circumvention of the new emission
standards. The range of companies and
production practices is much narrower
for heavy-duty highway engines and
vehicles than for nonroad engines and
equipment. EPA is therefore proposing
a further set of specifications to define
or constrain engine-installation
schedules that would be considered to
fall within normal-inventory practices.
In particular, vehicle manufacturers are
limited to three months of production,
once new emission standards start to
apply, to install previous-tier engines
without EPA approval. For any
subsequent installation of previous-tier
engines, EPA is proposing to require
that vehicle manufacturers get EPA
approval based on a demonstration that
the excess inventory was a result of
unforeseeable circumstances rather than
circumvention of emission standards.
EPA is proposing that approval in those
circumstances would be limited to a
maximum of 50 engines to be installed
for up to three additional months for a
single vehicle manufacturer.
The existing prohibitions and
exemptions in 40 CFR part 1068 related
to competition engines and vehicles
need to be amended to account for
differing policies for nonroad and motor
vehicle applications. In particular, we
generally consider nonroad engines and
vehicles to be ‘‘used solely for
competition’’ based on usage
characteristics. This allows EPA to set
up an administrative process to approve
competition exemptions, and to create
an exemption from the tampering
prohibition for products that are
modified for competition purposes.
There is no comparable allowance for
motor vehicles. A motor vehicle
qualifies for a competition exclusion
based on the physical characteristics of
the vehicle, not on its use. Also, if a
motor vehicle is covered by a certificate
of conformity at any point, there is no
exemption from the tampering and
defeat-device prohibitions that would
allow for converting the engine or
vehicle for competition use. There is no
prohibition against actual use of
certified motor vehicles or motor
vehicle engines for competition
purposes; however, it is not permissible
to remove a motor vehicle or motor
vehicle engine from its certified
configuration regardless of the purpose
for doing so.
It is relatively straightforward to
apply the provisions of 40 CFR part
1068 to all engines subject to the criteria
emission standards in 40 CFR part 86,
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subpart A, and the associated vehicles.
Manufacturers of comparable nonroad
engines are already subject to all these
provisions. Class 2b and 3 heavy-duty
vehicles subject to criteria emission
standards under 40 CFR part 86, subpart
S, are covered by a somewhat different
compliance program. EPA is therefore
proposing to apply the provisions of 40
CFR part 1068 only as described in the
next section for light-duty vehicles,
light-duty trucks, medium-duty
passenger vehicles, and chassis-certified
Class 2b and 3 heavy-duty vehicles.
B. Amendments Affecting Gliders and
Glider Kits
As noted in Sections III, and V the
agencies are proposing not to exempt
glider kits from the Phase 2 GHG
emission and fuel consumption
standards.877 Gliders and glider kits are
exempt from NHTSA’s Phase 1 fuel
consumption standards. The EPA Phase
1 rules exempted gliders and glider kits
produced by small businesses from CO2
standards (see 40 CFR 1037.150(c)) but
did not include such a blanket
exemption for other gliders and glider
kits. EPA is proposing to amend its rules
applicable to engines installed in glider
kits, a proposal which would affect
emission standards not only for GHGs
but for criteria pollutants as well.
NHTSA is also considering including
gliders under its Phase 2 standards.
Finally, EPA believes glider
manufacturers may not understand how
existing EPA regulations apply to them
or otherwise are not complying with
existing requirements, resulting in a
number of uncertified vehicles.
Therefore, EPA is also proposing to
clarify its requirements for certification
and to revise its definitions for glider
manufacturers as described below.
It is important to emphasize that EPA
is not proposing to ban gliders. Rather,
as is described below, EPA proposing to
restrict the number of gliders that may
be produced using engines not meeting
current standards.
EPA requests comment on its
proposed amendments and
clarifications regarding gliders.
Commenters are encouraged to include
technological information and
production data for the current glider
market, as well as for past practices.
Commenters opposing the proposed
provisions are also encouraged to
suggest alternate approaches that would
prevent glider kits from being used to
877 Glider vehicles are motor vehicles produced to
accept rebuilt engines (or other used engines) along
with used axles and/or transmissions. The common
commercial term ‘‘glider kit’’ is used here primarily
to refer to a chassis into which the used/rebuilt
engine is installed.
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(1) Background Under the Clean Air Act
EPA notes that under the antitampering provisions of the Clean Air
Act, and under EPA’s regulatory
requirements applicable to rebuilding
engines (see 40 CFR 86.004–40), rebuilt
engines must continue to comply with
emission standards applicable to the
model year for which they were
originally certified. These regulations
specifically apply to rebuilt engines
independent of the vehicle into which
they are installed or reinstalled. As a
general matter, EPA has considered the
question of whether the vehicle into
which the rebuilt engine is installed is
a ‘‘new motor vehicle’’ separately from
the status of the engine. The use of a
rebuilt or other previously used engine
in an otherwise newly manufactured
vehicle (such as a glider kit) does not
keep the vehicle from being ‘‘new’’
under the Clean Air Act. (Or, phrased
positively, a newly manufactured
vehicle remains ‘‘new’’ even if a rebuilt
engine is installed in it.) This issue
became of increased practical import
with the advent of separate vehicle (i.e.
non-engine) standards for GHGs in the
Phase 1 rule. Thus, before MY 2014,
EPA did not have separate standards for
vehicles over 14,000 lbs GVWR.
However, EPA Phase 1 GHG vehicle
standards apply for new MY 2014 and
later vehicles over 14,000 lbs. Thus,
EPA generally considers glider kits to be
subject to the Phase 1 vehicle standards,
and to have been subject to them from
the advent of the Phase 1 program.
However, with respect to engines
installed in glider kits, an EPA Phase 1
provision in 40 CFR 1037.150(j)
provided an exception allowing the use
of used or rebuilt engines 878 that were
certified to model year 2013 or earlier
(or model year 2015 or earlier for spark
ignition engines). The effect of this
transition provision during Phase 1 was
to allow glider kits to use engines not
certified to meet the engine GHG or fuel
consumption standards, although the
glider kits were still required to have an
EPA vehicle certificate with respect to
GHG emissions. In addition, another
provision of Phase 1 in 40 CFR
1037.150(c) exempted gliders and glider
kits produced by small businesses from
the need to obtain a vehicle certificate,
but did not include such a blanket
exemption for non-small business
gliders and glider kits. Thus, depending
878 Most
glider vehicles being produced today are
assembled with rebuilt engines. However, it is also
possible to use previously used engines that are not
rebuilt.
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on the size of the business producing
the glider kit, gliders and glider kits may
currently be subject to the requirement
to obtain a vehicle certificate prior to
introduction into commerce as a new
vehicle.
(2) Proposed Amendment to EPA
Vehicle Standards
EPA is proposing to end both 40 CFR
1037.150 provisions. EPA’s proposed
program would generally treat glider
vehicles the same as other new vehicles.
As a result, glider vehicles would have
to be certified to the Phase 2 vehicle
standards, which (among other things)
would require a fuel map for the actual
engine in order to run GEM. In other
words, manufacturers producing glider
kits would need to meet the applicable
GHG vehicle standards and, as part of
its compliance demonstration, would
need to have a fuel map for each engine
that would be used.
EPA is proposing this provision
because we believe there has been
adequate time for glider manufacturers
to transition to a compliance regime.
Moreover, as noted more fully below,
with increased numbers of glider kits
being produced, perpetuation of the
interim exemption from Phase 1 would
turn a transition provision into an ongoing loophole. Nevertheless, EPA is
proposing to replace this provision with
a limited allowance for small business
manufacturers as described in the
proposed 40 CFR 1037.635. EPA is also
proposing new definitions of ‘‘glider
vehicle’’ and ‘‘glider kit’’ in 40 CFR
1037.801 that are generally consistent
with the common understanding of
these terms as meaning new chassis
with a used engine or designed to accept
a used engine.
(3) Proposed Change to EPA Engine
Standards
EPA is also proposing to amend its
rules to require that engines used in
glider vehicles must be certified to the
standards applicable to the calendar
year in which assembly of the glider
vehicle is completed. This requirement
would apply to all pollutants, and thus
would encompass criteria pollutant
standards as well as GHG standards.
Used or rebuilt engines could be used,
as long as they had been certified to the
same standards as apply for the calendar
year of glider vehicle assembly. For
example, if assembly of a glider vehicle
was completed in calendar year 2020,
the engine standards applicable to MY
2020 engines would have to be satisfied.
(If the engine standards for model year
2020 were the same as for model years
2017 through 2019, then any model year
2017 or later engine could be used.)
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EPA is proposing to amend these
rules because, with the advent in MY
2007 of more stringent HD diesel engine
criteria pollutant standards,
continuation of provisions allowing
rebuilt and reused engines to meet
earlier MY criteria pollutant standards
results in unnecessarily high in-use
emissions. GHG emissions from these
engines also are controllable. As more
glider kits are produced, EPA believes
that these emissions should be
controlled to the same levels as other
new engines.
Since EPA has already justified the
criteria pollutant emission standards for
heavy duty diesel engines pursuant to
CAA section 202 (a)(3)(C), it is not clear
that any further justification for
applying those standards to engines
used in glider kits is needed. The GHG
engine standards for Phase 1 have
likewise already been justified, and the
proposed Phase 2 engine standards’
justification is set out in Section II
above. If any further justification is
required, EPA notes that the emission
benefits of applying current criteria
pollutant standards would be
substantial, and at low cost. Glider
vehicle production is not being reported
to EPA, and we cannot determine
precisely how much of an emission
impact these vehicles are having.
Nevertheless, since the current
standards for NOX and PM are at least
90 percent lower than the most stringent
previously applicable standards, we can
be certain that the NOX and PM
emissions of any glider vehicles using
pre-2007 engines are at least ten times
as high as emissions from equivalent
vehicles being produced with brand
new engines.879 Thus, each glider
vehicle that is purchased instead of a
new vehicle with a current MY engine
results in significantly higher in-use
emissions. EPA recognizes that the
environmental impacts of gliders using
2010 and later engines would be much
smaller, and requests comment on
whether we should treat such gliders
differently than gliders using older
engines.
These emission impacts are being
compounded by the increasing sales of
these vehicles. Estimates provided to
EPA indicate that production of glider
vehicles has increased by an order of
magnitude from what it was in the
2004–2006 time frame—from a few
879 The NO and PM standards for MY 2007 and
X
later engines are 0.20 g/hp-hr and 0.01 g/hp-hr,
respectively. The standards for MY 2004 through
2006 engines were ten times these levels, and
earlier standards were even higher.
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hundred each year to thousands.880
While the few hundred glider vehicles
produced annually in the 2004–2006
timeframe may have been produced for
arguably legitimate purposes such as
salvaging powertrains from vehicles
otherwise destroyed in accidents, EPA
believes the tenfold increase in glider
kit production since the MY 2007
criteria pollutant emission standards
took effect reflects an attempt to
circumvent these more stringent
standards and (ultimately) the Clean Air
Act.
The cost for manufacturers to comply
with the vehicle-based GHG standards is
similar for gliders as for other new
vehicles. Similar to EPA’s analysis of
emissions above, although we cannot
precisely quantify the cost of complying
with the proposed engine requirements
for criteria pollutant standards because
it is dependent on which engines would
be used and which would have
otherwise been used, EPA nevertheless
believes that cost-effectiveness (dollars
per ton) of the proposed requirement
relative to any pre-2007 engine would
be similar to the cost-effectiveness of the
NOX and PM standards for current
model year engines, which EPA has
already found to be cost effective.
The agencies (as well as the broader
SBAR Panel) are, however, concerned
about adverse economic impacts on
small businesses that assemble gliders
and build glider kits, and we recognize
that production of a smaller number of
gliders by these small manufacturers
may be appropriate for salvaged engines
or other non-circumvention purposes.
Therefore, EPA is proposing a new
provision that would preserve its
regulatory status quo for existing small
businesses, but cap annual production
based on recent sales. Thus, a limited
number of glider kits produced by small
businesses would not have to meet the
GHG vehicle standards, and could use
rebuilt or used engines provided those
engines were certified to the year of the
engine’s manufacture. For example, an
existing small business that produced
between 100 and 200 glider vehicles per
year would be allowed to produce up to
200 glider vehicles per year under
without having to certify them to the
GHG standards, or re-certifying the
engines to the now-applicable EPA
standards for criteria pollutants and
GHGs (so long as the engine is certified
to criteria pollutant standards for the
year of its manufacture). To be eligible
for this provision, EPA is also proposing
that no small entity could produce more
880 ‘‘Industry Characterization of Heavy Duty
Glider Kits’’, MacKay & Company, September 30,
2013.
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than 300 glider vehicles in any given
model year without certifying (or
recertifying) to any EPA standards. EPA
believes that this level reflects the upper
end of the range of production that
occurred before significant
circumvention of the 2007 criteria
pollutant standards began. We request
comment on the appropriate caps
(including the appropriate magnitude of
the caps) and on whether any other
special provisions would be needed to
accommodate glider kits. EPA also
requests comment on whether we
should allow larger manufacturers to
produce some limited number of glider
kits.
(4) Lead Time for Amended Standards
EPA is proposing that this
requirement for gliders to meet engine
and vehicle standards applicable to
other new vehicles and engines take
effect on January 1, 2018. EPA believes
this provides sufficient time to ‘‘permit
the development and application of the
requisite control measures’’ (CAA
section 202 (a)(3)(D)) because compliant
engines are available today, although
manufacturers would need several
months to change business practices to
comply. EPA also solicits comment on
whether an earlier or later compliance
date would be appropriate. We also
request comment on whether we should
include a production limit if we provide
additional lead time in the Final Rule.
(5) Legal Authority and Definitions
Under the Clean Air Act
With respect to statutory authority
under the Clean Air Act, EPA notes first
that it has broad authority to control all
pollutant emissions from ‘‘any’’ rebuilt
heavy duty engines (including engines
beyond their statutory useful life). See
CAA section 202(a)(3)(D). EPA is to give
‘‘appropriate’’ consideration to issues of
cost, energy, and safety in developing
such standards, and to provide
necessary lead time to implement those
standards. As noted above, if a used
engine is placed in a glider kit, the
engine would be considered a ‘‘new
motor vehicle engine’’ because it is
being used in a new motor vehicle (as
explained in the following paragraph).
See CAA section 216(3). With respect to
the vehicle-based GHG standards, there
is no question that the completed glider
is a ‘‘motor vehicle’’ under the Clean Air
Act (as well as under NHTSA’s safety
provisions). Some in the trucking
industry have questioned whether a
glider kit (without an engine) is a motor
vehicle. However, EPA considers glider
kits to be incomplete motor vehicles,
and EPA has the authority to regulate
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incomplete motor vehicles, including
unmotorized chassis.
Under the CAA, it is also important
that ‘‘new’’ is determined based on legal
title and does not consider prior use.
Thus, glider kits that have a new vehicle
identification number (VIN) and new
title are considered to be ‘‘new motor
vehicles’’ even if they incorporate
previously used components. Note that
under the Clean Air Act, EPA would not
consider the fact that a vehicle retained
the VIN of the donor vehicle from which
the engine was obtained determinative
of whether or not the vehicle is new.
The CAA also defines ‘‘manufacturer’’
to include any person who assembles
new motor vehicles. EPA is proposing to
revise its regulatory definitions of these
terms in 40 CFR 1036.801 and 1037.801
to more clearly reflect these aspects of
the CAA definitions—that glider kits are
‘‘new motor vehicles’’, previously used
engines (whether rebuilt or not)
installed into glider kits are ‘‘new motor
vehicle engines’’, and any person who
completes assembly of a glider is a
‘‘manufacturer’’. EPA also notes that
under the existing 40 CFR 1037.620,
glider kit assemblers would generally be
considered to be secondary vehicle
manufacturers. That section, which EPA
is proposing to redesignate as 40 CFR
1037.622, allows secondary vehicle
manufacturers that have a valid
certificate or exemption to receive
incomplete vehicles (such as glider kits)
from OEMs.
To further clarify that EPA considers
both glider kits and completed glider
vehicles to be motor vehicles, EPA is
proposing to add a clarification to our
definition of ‘‘motor vehicle’’ in 40 CFR
85.1703 regarding vehicles such as
gliders that clearly are intended for use
on highways, consistent with the CAA
definition of ‘‘motor vehicle’’ in CAA
section 216 (2). The regulatory
definition presently contains a
provision stating that vehicles lacking
certain safety features required by state
or federal law are not ‘‘motor vehicles’’.
This caveat needs a proper context: Is
the safety feature one that would
prevent operation on highways. If not,
absence of that feature does not result in
the vehicle being other than a motor
vehicle. The proposed amendment
would consequently make clear that
vehicles that are clearly intended for
operation on highways are motor
vehicles, even if they do not have every
safety feature. (EPA is also considering
whether to simply eliminate the clause
‘‘or safety features required by state and/
or federal law’’ from the regulatory
definition.) This clarifying provision
would take effect upon promulgation.
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We note that NHTSA and EPA have
separate definitions for motor vehicles
under their separate statutory
authorities. As such, EPA’s
determination of how its statute and
regulations apply to glider kits and
glider vehicles has no bearing on how
NHTSA may apply its safety authority
with regard to them. See Section XIV. B.
(6) for additional discussion of
NHTSA’s consideration of glider
vehicles.
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(6) Relation to NHTSA Fuel Efficiency
Program and Safety Regulations
NHTSA does not consider glider kits
to be motor vehicles, but it does
consider assembled glider vehicles to be
motor vehicles. As stated above, NHTSA
is considering including glider vehicles
under its Phase 2 standards. NHTSA
seeks comments from glider
manufacturers on this consideration.
We believe that the agencies
potentially having different policies for
glider kits and glider vehicles under the
Phase 2 program would not result in
problematic disharmony between the
NHTSA and EPA programs, because of
the small number of vehicles that would
be involved. EPA believes that its
proposed changes would result in the
glider market returning to the pre-2007
levels, in which fewer than 1,000 glider
vehicles would be produced in most
years. Given that a large fraction of these
vehicles would be exempted from EPA
regulations because they would be
produced by qualifying small
businesses, they would thus, in practice,
be treated the same under EPA and
NHTSA regulations. Only non-exempt
glider vehicles would be subject to
different requirements under the
NHTSA and EPA regulations. However,
we believe that this is unlikely to
exceed a few hundred vehicles in any
year, which would be few enough not to
result in any meaningful disharmony
between the two agencies.
With regard to NHTSA’s safety
authority over gliders, the agency notes
that it has become increasingly aware of
potential noncompliances with its
regulations applicable to gliders.
NHTSA has learned of manufacturers
who are creating glider vehicles that are
new vehicles under 49 CFR 571.7(e),
however, the manufacturers are not
certifying them and obtaining a new
VIN as required. NHTSA plans to
pursue enforcement actions as
applicable against noncompliant
manufacturers. In addition to
enforcement actions, NHTSA may
consider amending 49 CFR 571.7(e) and
related regulations as necessary. NHTSA
believes manufacturers may not be
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using this regulation as originally
intended.
C. Applying the General Compliance
Provisions of 40 CFR Part 1068 to LightDuty Vehicles, Light-Duty Trucks,
Chassis-Certified Class 2B and 3 HeavyDuty Vehicles and Highway
Motorcycles
As described above, EPA is proposing
to apply all the general compliance
provisions of 40 CFR part 1068 to
heavy-duty engines and vehicles. EPA
proposes to also apply the recall
provisions and the hearing procedures
from 40 CFR part 1068 for highway
motorcycles and for all vehicles subject
to standards under 40 CFR part 86,
subpart S. See the preceding section for
a description of how the provisions
from 40 CFR part 1068 compare to those
in 40 CFR part 85 and part 86.
EPA also requests comment on
applying the rest of the provisions from
40 CFR part 1068 to highway
motorcycles and to all vehicles subject
to standards under 40 CFR part 86,
subpart S. EPA particularly requests
comment on applying the defectreporting provisions in 40 CFR 1068.501
to these vehicles. The general approach
is to replace a fixed threshold of 25
defects as the basis for defect reporting
with a scaled approach that would
require defect reporting only after the
manufacturer finds some larger number
of actual emission-related defects. The
regulation calls for manufacturers to
monitor possible emission-related
defects as evidenced by warranty
claims, in-use testing, and other
indicators, and to start investigating for
actual defects once possible defects
exceed an established threshold. The
existing regulation in 40 CFR 1068.501
generally calls for investigating once
possible defects exceed 5 to 10 percent
of production, with a requirement to
report defects if confirmed defects
exceed a rate of 1 to 2 percent of
production. The percentage thresholds
that apply for a given engine/vehicle
model decrease with increasing
production volumes. This approach is
similar to defect-reporting requirements
that already apply in California.
Manufacturers may be interested in
complying with a single set of defectreporting provisions nationwide; EPA
therefore also requests comment on
simply requiring manufacturers to
follow the California defect-reporting
scheme for their EPA-certified vehicles.
Note that EPA is proposing to amend
40 CFR 85.1701 to specify that the
exemption provisions apply to heavyduty engines subject to regulation under
40 CFR part 86, subpart A. This is
intended to limit the scope of this
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provision so that it does not apply for
Class 2b and 3 heavy-duty vehicles
subject to standards under 40 CFR part
86, subpart S. This change corrects and
inadvertently broad reference to heavyduty vehicles in 40 CFR 85.1701.
D. Amendments to General Compliance
Provisions in 40 CFR Part 1068
The general compliance provisions in
40 CFR part 1068 apply broadly too
many different types of engines and
equipment. This section describes how
EPA is proposing to amend these
procedures to make various corrections
and adjustments.
(1) Hearing Procedures
EPA is proposing to update and
consolidate its regulations related to
formal and informal hearings in 40 CFR
part 1068, subpart G. This will allow us
to rely on a single set of regulations for
all the different categories of vehicles,
engines, and equipment that are subject
to emission standards. EPA also made
an effort to write these regulations for
improved readability.
The hearing procedures specified in
40 CFR part 1068 apply to the various
categories of nonroad engines and
equipment (along with the other
provisions of part 1068). EPA is
proposing in these rules to apply these
hearing procedures also to heavy-duty
highway engines, light-duty motor
vehicles, and highway motorcycles. EPA
believes there is no reason to treat any
of these sectors differently regarding
hearing procedures.
EPA is proposing an introductory
section that provides an overview of
requesting a hearing for all cases where
a person or a company objects to an
adverse decision by the agency. In
certain circumstances, as spelled out in
the regulations, a person or a company
can request a hearing before a Presiding
Officer. Statutory provisions require
formal hearing procedures for
administrative enforcement actions
seeking civil penalties. The Clean Air
Act does not require a formal hearing for
other agency decisions; EPA is therefore
proposing to specify that informal
hearing procedures apply for all such
decisions.
The introductory section also adds
detailed provisions describing the
requirements for submitting information
to the agency in a timely manner. These
provisions accommodate current
practices for electronic submission,
distinguish between postal and courier
delivery and provide separate
requirements for shipments made from
inside and outside the United States.
The specified deadlines are generally
based on the traditional approach of a
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postmark determining whether a
submission is timely or not. Fax, email
and courier shipments are similarly
specified as needing to be sent by close
of business on the day of the deadline.
A different approach applies for
shipments originating from outside the
United States. Because time in transit
can vary dramatically, we are proposing
to specify that foreign shipments need
to be received in our office by the
specified deadline to be considered
timely. Given the option to send
documents by email or by fax, EPA
expects this approach would not pose
any disadvantage to anyone making an
appeal from outside the United States.
EPA is proposing to replace the
current reference to 40 CFR 86.1853–01
for informal hearings with a full-text
approach that captures this same
material. EPA attempted to write these
proposed regulations in a way that
would not change the underlying
hearing protocol.
The regulations currently reference
the formal hearing procedures in 40 CFR
85.1807, which were originally drafted
to apply to light-duty motor vehicles.
After we adopted the hearing
procedures in 40 CFR 85.1807, EPA’s
Office of Administrative Law Judges
finalized a set of regulations defining
formal hearing procedures that were
intended to apply broadly across the
agency for appeals under every
applicable statute. See 40 CFR part 22,
‘‘Consolidated Rules of Practice
Governing the Administrative
Assessment of Civil Penalties and the
Revocation/Termination or Suspension
of Permits.’’ EPA is therefore revising
the regulations in 40 CFR part 1068 to
simply refer to these formal hearing
procedures in 40 CFR part 22.
(2) Additional Changes to General
Compliance Provisions
EPA is also proposing to make
numerous changes across 40 CFR part
1068 to correct errors, to add
clarification, and to make adjustments
based on lessons learned from
implementing these regulatory
provisions. This includes the following
proposed changes:
• § 1068.1: Clarify applicability of
part 1068 with respect to legacy parts
(such as 40 CFR parts 89 through 94).
• § 1068.20: Clarify that EPA’s
inspection activities do not depend on
having a warrant or a court order. As
noted in the standard-setting parts, EPA
may deny certification or suspend or
revoke certificates if a manufacturer
denies EPA entry for an attempted
inspection or other entry.
• § 1068.27: Clarify that EPA
confirmatory testing may properly be
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performed before issuance of a
certificate of conformity. We are also
making an addition to state that we may
require manufacturers to give us any
special components that are needed for
EPA testing.
• § 1068.30: Add definitions of
‘‘affiliated companies’’, ‘‘parent
company’’, and ‘‘subsidiaries’’ to clarify
how small-business provisions apply for
a range of business relationships.
• § 1068.30: Clarify that a
manufacturer can be considered a
certificate holder based on the current
or previous model year (to avoid
problems from having a gap between
model years).
• § 1068.30: Spell out contact
information for the ‘‘Designated
Compliance Officer’’ to clarify how
manufacturers should submit
information to the agency. This includes
email addresses for the various sectors.
• § 1068.32: Add discussion to
establish the meaning of various terms
and phrases for EPA regulations; for
example, we distinguish between
standards, requirements, allowances,
prohibitions, and provisions. EPA is
also clarifying terminology with respect
to singular/plural, inclusive lists, notes
and examples in the regulatory text, and
references to ‘‘general’’ or ‘‘typical’’
circumstances. EPA also describes some
of the approach to determining when
‘‘unusual circumstances’’ apply.
• § 1068.45: Allow manufacturers to
use coded dates on engine labels; allow
EPA to require the manufacturer to
share information to read the coded
information.
• § 1068.45: Clarify that engine labels
are information submissions to EPA.
• §§ 1068.101 and 1068.125: Update
penalty amounts to reflect changes to 40
CFR part 19.
• § 1068.101: Revise the penalty
associated with the tampering
prohibition to be an engine-based
penalty, as opposed to assessing
penalties per day of engine operation.
This correction aligns with Clean Air
Act section 205.
• § 1068.103: Clarify the process for
reinstating certificates after suspending,
revoking, or voiding.
• § 1068.103: Clarify that the
prohibition against ‘‘offering for sale’’
uncertified engines applies only for
engines already produced. It is not a
violation to invite customers to buy
engines as part of an effort to establish
the economic viability of producing
engines, as would be expected for
market research.
• § 1068.105: Require documentation
related to ‘‘normal inventory’’ for
stockpiling provision. EPA is also
clarifying that there is no specific
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deadline associated with producing
‘‘normal-inventory’’ engines under this
section, but emphasizing that vehicle/
equipment manufacturers may not delay
engine installation beyond their normal
production schedules. EPA is also
clarifying that the allowance related to
building vehicles/equipment in the
early part of a model year, before the
start of a new calendar year
corresponding to new emission
standards, applies only in cases where
vehicle/equipment assembly is
complete before the start of the new
calendar year. This is intended to
prevent manufacturers from
circumventing new standards by
initiating production of large numbers
of vehicles/equipment for eventual
completion after new standards have
started to apply.
• § 1068.115: Clarify warranty
provisions to align with statute.
• § 1068.120: Describe how the
rebuilding provisions apply in the case
of engine replacements where the new
and old engines are subject to standards
under different standard-setting parts
(such as switching from spark-ignition
to compression-ignition nonroad
engines).
• § 1068.201: Describe how someone
may sell an engine under a different
exemption than was originally intended
or used.
• § 1068.210: Remove the
requirement for companies getting
approval for a testing exemption to send
us written confirmation that they meet
the terms and conditions of the
exemption. We do not believe this
submission is necessary for
implementing the testing exemption.
• § 1068.220: Add description of how
we might approve engine operation
under the display exemption. This is
intended to more carefully address
circumstances in which engine
operation is part of the display function
in question. We would want to consider
a wide range of factors in considering
such a request; for example, we could be
more inclined to approve a request for
a display exemption if the extent of
operation is very limited, or if the
engine/equipment has emission rates
that are comparable to what would
apply absent the exemption. EPA is also
removing the specific prohibition
against generating revenue with
exempted engines/equipment, since this
has an unclear meaning and we can take
any possible revenue generation into
account in considering whether to
approve the exemption on its merits.
• § 1068.230: Add provision allowing
for engine operation under the export
exemption only as needed to prepare it
for export (this has already been in
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place in part 85, and in part 1068 for
engines/equipment imported for
export).
• § 1068.235: Clarify that the
standard-setting part may set conditions
on an exemption for competition
engines/equipment.
• § 1068.240: Describe the logistics
for identifying the disposition of
engines being replaced under the
replacement engine exemption. In
particular, manufacturers would need to
identify the disposition of each engine
by the due date for the report under
§ 1068.240(c) to avoid counting them
toward the production limit for
untracked replacement engines. We are
proposing to delay the due date for the
report until September 30 following the
production year to allow more time for
manufacturers to make these
determinations.
• § 1068.240: Clarify the relationship
between paragraphs (d) and (e).
• § 1068.250: Simplify the deadline
for requesting small-volume hardship.
• § 1068.255: Clarify that hardship
provisions for equipment manufacturers
are not limited to small businesses, and
that a hardship approval is generally
limited to a single instance of producing
exempt equipment for up to 12 months.
• § 1068.260: State that manufacturers
shipping engines without certain
emission-related components need to
identify the unshipped components
either with a performance specification
(where applicable) or with specific part
numbers. We are also listing exhaust
piping before and after aftertreatment
devices as not being emission-related
components for purposes of shipping
engines in a certified configuration.
• §§ 1068.260 and 1068.262: Revise
the text to clarify that provisions related
to partially complete engines have
limited applicability in the case of
equipment subject to equipment-based
exhaust emission standards (such as
recreational vehicles). These provisions
are not intended to prevent the sale of
partially complete equipment with
respect to evaporative emission
standards. We intend to address this in
the future by changing the regulation in
40 CFR part 1060 to address this more
carefully.
• § 1068.262: Revise text to align with
the terminology and description
adopted for similar circumstances
related to shipment of incomplete
heavy-duty vehicles under 40 CFR part
1037.
• § 1068.301: Revise text to more
broadly describe importers’
responsibility to submit information and
store records and explicitly allow
electronic submission of EPA
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declaration forms and other importation
documents.
• § 1068.305: Remove the provision
specifying that individuals may need to
submit taxpayer identification numbers
as part of a request for an exemption or
exclusion for imported engines/
equipment. We do not believe this
information is necessary for
implementing the exemption and
exclusion provisions.
• § 1068.315: Allow for destroying
engines/equipment instead of exporting
them under the exemption for importing
engines/equipment for repairs or
alterations.
• § 1068.315: Remove the time
constraints on approving extensions to a
display exemption for imported
engines/equipment. EPA would
continue to expect the default time
frame of one year to be appropriate, and
extension of one to three years is
sufficient for most cases; however, we
are aware that there are occasional
circumstances calling for a longer-term
exemption. For example, an engine on
display in a museum might
appropriately be exempted indefinitely
once its place in a standing exhibition
is well established.
• § 1068.315: Specify that engines
under the ancient engine exemption
must be substantially in the original
configuration.
• § 1068.360: Clarify the provisions
related to model year for imported
products by removing a circularity
regarding ‘‘new’’ engines and ‘‘new’’
equipment.
• § 1068.401: Add explicit statement
that SEA testing is at manufacturer’s
expense. This is consistent with current
practice and the rest of the regulatory
text.
• § 1068.401: Allow for requiring
manufacturers other than the certificate
holder to perform selective enforcement
audits in cases where multiple
manufacturers are cooperatively
producing certified engines.
• § 1068.401: State that SEA noncooperation may lead to suspended or
revoked certificate (like production-line
testing).
• § 1068.415: Set up new criteria for
lower SEA testing rate based on engine
power to allow for a reduced testing rate
of one engine per day only for engines
with maximum engine power above 560
kW, but keep the allowance to approve
a lower testing rate; that may be needed,
for example, if engine break-in
(stabilization) and testing are performed
on the same dynamometer. EPA believes
it is more appropriate to base reduced
testing rates on engine characteristics
rather than sales volumes, as has been
done in the past.
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• § 1068.415: Revise the service
accumulation requirement to specify a
maximum of eight days for stabilizing a
test engine. This is necessary to address
a situation where an engine operates
only six hours per day to achieve
stabilization after well over 50 hours.
For such cases, we would expect
manufacturers to be able to run engines
much more than six hours per day. As
with testing rates, manufacturers may
ask for our approval to use a longer
stabilization period if circumstances
don’t allow them to meet the specified
service accumulation targets.
• § 1068.501, and Appendix I: Clarify
that ‘‘emission-related components’’
include components whose failure
would commonly increase emissions
(not might increase), and whose primary
purpose is to reduce emissions (not sole
purpose); current regulations are not
consistent.
• § 1068.501: Add ‘‘in-use testing’’ to
list of things to consider for
investigating potential defects.
• § 1068.505: Clarify that
manufacturers subject to a mandatory
recall must remedy noncompliant target
vehicles without regard to their age or
mileage at the time of repair, consistent
with provisions that already apply
under 40 CFR part 85.
• § 1068.505: Revise the requirement
for submitting a remedial report from a
60-day maximum to a 45-day minimum
(or 30-day minimum in the event of a
hearing). This adjusted approach
already applies to motor vehicles under
40 CFR part 85.
• § 1068.515: Clarify an ambiguity to
require that manufacturers identify the
facility where repairs or inspections are
performed.
• § 1068.530: Specify that recall
records must be kept for five years,
rather than three years. This is
consistent with longstanding recall
policy for motor vehicles and motor
vehicle engines under 40 CFR part 85.
Manufacturers and equipment
operators have raised an additional
question about how the regulations
apply for replacement engines where
the replacement engine is of a different
type than the engine being replaced. For
example, someone operating a piece of
industrial equipment may want to
replace an old spark-ignition engine
with a compression-ignition engine (or
vice versa). The replacement engine
could be freshly manufactured, or it
may have already been placed into
service. The tampering prohibition
would generally disallow ‘‘disabling
emission controls,’’ but regulations do
not directly address how this applies
relative to the multiple emission
standards that apply. It is important to
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note that the standard-setting part often
specifies that a used replacement engine
becomes new (and subject to
certification requirements) if it is
installed in a piece of equipment from
a different category. For example,
installing a used heavy-duty highway
engine in land-based nonroad
equipment would make the engine
‘‘new’’ and subject to certification
requirements as a nonroad engine. This
does not apply for spark-ignition
engines and compression-ignition
engines installed in heavy-duty highway
vehicles, or for spark-ignition engines
and compression-ignition engines
installed in land-based nonroad
equipment. We request comment on the
best approach to delineating how the
tampering prohibition should apply for
these scenarios.
E. Amendments to Light-Duty
Greenhouse Gas Program Requirements
EPA is proposing to make minor
changes to correct errors and clarify
regulations in 40 CFR part 86, subpart
S, and 40 CFR part 600 relating to EPA’s
light-duty greenhouse gas emission
standards. This includes the following
proposed changes:
• § 86.1818–12: Correct a reference in
paragraph (c)(4) and clarify that CO2equivalent debits for N2O and CH4 are
calculated in Megagrams and rounded
to the nearest whole Megagram.
• § 86.1838–01: Correct references in
paragraph (d)(3)(iii).
• § 86.1866–12: Correct a reference in
paragraph (b).
• § 86.1868–12: Clarify language in
the introductory paragraph explaining
the model years of applicability of
different provisions for air conditioning
efficiency credits. In paragraph (e)(5)
clarify that the engine-off specification
of 2 minutes is intended to be
cumulative time. In paragraphs (f)(1),
(g)(1), and (g)(3), clarify language by
pointing to the definitions in § 86.1803–
01.
• § 86.1869–12: Make corrections to
the language for readability in paragraph
(b)(2). In paragraph (b)(4)(ii) delete the
phrase ‘‘backup/reverse lights’’ because
these lights were not intended to be part
of the stated eligibility criteria for highefficiency lighting credits. Correct
references in paragraph (f).
• § 86.1870–12: Add language that
clarifies that a manufacturer that meets
the minimum production volume
thresholds with a combination of mild
and strong hybrid electric pickup trucks
is eligible for credits.
• § 86.1871–12: Clarify that credits
from model years 2010–2015 are not
limited to a life of 5 model years. A
recent rule extended the life of 2010–
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2015 credits to model year 2021; thus,
language referring to a 5-year life for
emission credits generated in these
model years is being removed or
revised.
• § 600.113–12: Correct language in
paragraph (m)(1), which relates to
vehicles operating on LPG, that
erroneously refers to methanol and
methanol-fueled.
• § 600.113–12: Correct references in
paragraph (n) and add a new paragraph
(m) that reinstates language mistakenly
dropped by a previous regulation.
• § 600.116–12: Correct description of
physical quantity to refer to ‘‘energy’’
rather than ‘‘current’’, and correct
various paragraph references.
• § 600.208–12: Correct a reference in
paragraph (a)(2)(iii).
• § 600.210–12: Correct a reference
and text in paragraph (c)(2)(iv)(C).
F. Amendments to Highway and
Nonroad Test Procedures and
Certification Requirements
(1) Testing With Aftertreatment Devices
Involving Infrequent Regeneration
Manufacturers generally rely on
selective catalytic reaction and diesel
particulate filters to meet EPA’s
emission standards for highway and
nonroad compression-ignition engines.
These emission control devices
typically involve infrequent
regeneration, which can have a
significant effect on emission rates. EPA
has addressed that for each engine type
by provisions for infrequent
regeneration factors; this is a calculation
methodology that allows manufacturers
to incorporate the effect of infrequent
regeneration into reported emission
values whether or not that regeneration
occurs during an emission test. EPA
adopted separate provisions for
highway, locomotive, marine, and landbased nonroad compression-ignition
engines. EPA is proposing to harmonize
the common elements of these
procedures in 40 CFR part 1065, and to
add clarifying specifications in each of
the standard-setting parts for sectorspecific provisions.
(2) Mapping for Constant-Speed Engines
Under 40 CFR Part 1065
EPA is proposing to revise this section
as it applies to the two-point mapping
method for certain constant-speed
engines. The regulations currently cite a
performance parameter in ISO 8528–5
that does not apply for the design of
these engines.
Common practice for engines that
produce electric power is to use an
isochronous governor for stand-alone
generator sets. In some parallel
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operations of multiple generator sets,
droop is added as a method for load
sharing. The amount of droop can be
tuned by the generator set manufacturer
or the site system integrator. Such
engines are commonly tested on an
engine dynamometer with the
isochronous governor.
Mapping with just two points works
well for the case of 0 percent droop
(i.e. isochronous governor). For this
case, a persistent speed error is forced
on the engine governor on the second
point and this will cause the governor
to wind up to its maximum command.
The second point is effectively
operating on the torque curve instead of
the isochronous governor. So, the
second point captures the full fueling
torque (plus a small amount due to any
rising torque curve). This measured
torque is used as the maximum test
torque for computing the emission test
points. Since there is no designed-in
droop, some target amount of speed
error is needed for the second point.
The regulation at 40 CFR
1065.510(d)(5)(iii) currently has a
default target speed on the second point
of 97.5 percent of the no-load speed
measured on the first point. This results
in a persistent speed error of 2.5 percent
of the no-load speed. For an 1800 rpm
no-load speed, this would give a target
speed of 1755 rpm and a 45 rpm speed
error on an isochronous governor. If the
engine has a torque rise of 20 percent
from 1800 to 1200 rpm (0.0333 percent
torque rise per rpm), this 45 rpm error
will cause a 1.5 percent of point error
in the determination of the intended
maximum test torque. This error is
larger than desired for this type of
testing. Fortunately, engines and test
cells have sufficient speed resolution to
select a lower speed error, which
reduces this error in maximum test
torque. In practice, testing with a speed
error at or below 0.5 percent is more
than adequate to cause the isochronous
governor to wind up to maximum
fueling. Using a target speed of 99.5
percent on the second point gives a
target speed of 1791 rpm for an 1800
rpm no-load speed and will reduce the
error on the maximum test torque to a
reasonable 0.3 percent of point for the
20 percent torque rise case described
above.
For governors with droop, if we
attempt the two-point method, we
would have to calculate a target speed
for the second point based on a
designed amount of droop.
Unfortunately, the actual governor may
not have the same amount of droop as
the design droop, which may cause
error in the measured torque versus the
maximum test torque associated with a
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complete torque map. Also, the design
droop may be based on a torque value
that is different from the intended
maximum test torque. Thus, the twopoint method is not sufficient to yield
a maximum test torque equivalent to the
value that would be obtained using a
multi-point map. Also the allowed
speed error on the second point is 20
percent of the speed droop, which
allows an unacceptably large error in
the maximum test torque.
Thus, for the reasons listed, we are
proposing to limit the two-point
mapping method to any isochronous
governed engines, not just engines used
to generate electric power.
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(3) Calculating Maximum and
Intermediate Test Speeds Under 40 CFR
Part 1065
EPA is proposing to improve the
method for calculating maximum and
intermediate test speeds by applying a
more robust calculation method. The
new calculation method would be
consistent with the methodology used
for the maximum test torque
determination, which we revised in our
light-duty Tier 3 rulemaking. Under the
current regulations, the result is a
measured maximum test torque at one
of the map points. The proposed
calculation method involves
interpolation to determine the measured
maximum test torque, yielding a more
representative maximum test torque lbs.
(4) Additional Test Procedure
Amendments
EPA is proposing the following
additional changes to test procedures in
40 CFR part 1065 and part 1066:
• § 1065.15: Allow manufacturers to
use NMOG measurements to
demonstrate compliance with NMHC
standards. We also request comment on
whether other forms of hydrocarbon
standards (such as VOC) should be
allowed for alternative fuels.
• § 1066.210: Revise the
dynamometer force equation to
incorporate grade, consistent with the
coastdown procedures being proposed
for heavy-duty vehicles. For operation at
a level grade, the additional parameters
cancel out of the calculation.
• § 1066.605: Adding an equation to
the regulations to spell out how to
calculate emission rates in grams per
mile. This calculation is generally
assumed, but we want to include the
equation to remove any uncertainty
about calculating emission rates from
mass emission measurements and
driving distance.
• § 1066.815: Create an exception to
the maximum value for overall
residence time for PM sampling
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methods that involve PM samples
collected for combined bags over a duty
cycle. This is needed to accommodate
the reduced sample flow rates
associated with these procedures.
G. Amendments Related to Nonroad
Diesel Engines in 40 CFR Part 1039
EPA is proposing two changes to 40
CFR 1039.5 to clarify the scope and
applicability of standards under 40 CFR
part 1039. First, EPA is stating that
engines using the provisions of 40 CFR
1033.625 for non-locomotive-specific
engines remain subject to certification
requirements as nonroad diesel engines
under 40 CFR part 1039. Such engines
would need to be certified as both
locomotive engines and as nonroad
diesel engines. Second, EPA is
proposing to revise the statement about
how manufacturers may certify under
40 CFR part 1051 for engines installed
in recreational vehicles (such as allterrain vehicles or snowmobiles). EPA is
proposing to remove text that might be
interpreted to mean that there are
circumstances in which certification
under neither part is required. The
proper understanding of EPA’s policy in
that regard is that certification under
one part is a necessary condition for
being exempted from the other part.
In 2008, EPA adopted a requirement
in 40 CFR part 1042 for manufacturers
to design marine diesel engines using
selective catalytic reduction with basic
diagnostic functions to ensure that these
systems were working as intended (73
FR 37096, June 30, 2008). EPA is
proposing to apply those same
diagnostic control requirements to
nonroad diesel engines regulated under
40 CFR part 1039. This addresses the
same fundamental concern that engines
would not be controlling emissions
consistent with the certified
configuration if the engine is lacking the
appropriate quantity and quality of
reductant. While some lead time would
be needed to make the necessary
modifications, we believe it will be
straightforward to apply the same
designs from marine diesel engines to
land-based nonroad diesel engines. EPA
is accordingly proposing that
manufacturers meet the proposed
diagnostic specifications starting with
model year 2018. These diagnostic
controls would not affect the current
policy related to adjustable parameters
and inducements related to selective
catalytic reduction. EPA requests
comment on adding these diagnostic
requirements for nonroad diesel
engines.
EPA is proposing to make numerous
changes across 40 CFR part 1039 to
correct errors, to add clarification, and
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to make adjustments based on lessons
learned from implementing these
regulatory provisions. This includes the
following proposed changes:
• § 1039.2: Add a clarifying note to
say that something other than a
conventional ‘‘manufacturer’’ may need
to certify engines that become new after
being placed into service (such as
engines converted from highway or
stationary use). This is intended to
address a possible assumption that only
conventional manufacturers can certify
engines.
• §§ 1039.30, 1039.730, and 1039.825:
Consolidate information-collection
provisions into a single section.
• § 1039.107: Remove the reference to
deterioration factors for evaporative
emissions, since there are no
deterioration factors for demonstrating
compliance with evaporative emission
standards.
• § 1039.104(g): Correct the specified
FEL cap for an example scenario
illustrating how alternate FEL caps
work.
• § 1039.120: Reduce extendedwarranty requirements to warranties
that are actually provided to the
consumer, rather than to any published
warranties that are offered. The
principle is that the emission-related
warranty should not be less effective for
emission-related items than for items
that are not emission-related.
• § 1039.125: Allow for special
maintenance procedures that address
low-use engines. For example, owners
of recreational marine vessels may need
to perform engine maintenance after a
smaller number of hours than would
otherwise apply based on the limited
engine operation over time.
• § 1039.125: Establish a minimum
maintenance interval of 1500 hours for
DEF filters. This reflects the technical
capabilities for filter durability and the
expected maintenance in the field.
• § 1039.125: Add fuel-water
separator cartridges as an example of a
maintenance item that is not emissionrelated.
• § 1039.135: Allow for including
optional label content only if the
manufacturer does not opt to omit other
information based on limited
availability of space on the label, and
identify counterfeit protection as an
additional item that manufacturers may
include on the label.
• § 1039.201: Clarify that
manufacturers may amend their
application for certification after the end
of the model year in certain
circumstances, but they may not
produce engines for a given model year
after December 31 of the named year.
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• § 1039.201: Establish that
manufacturers may deliver to EPA for
testing an engine that is identical to the
test engine used for certification. This
may be necessary if the test engine has
accumulated too many hours, or if it is
unavailable for any reason.
• § 1039.205: Replace the requirement
to submit data from invalid tests with a
requirement to simply notify EPA in the
application for certification if test was
invalidated.
• § 1039.205: Add a requirement for
manufacturers to include in their
application for certification a
description of their practice for
importing engines, if applicable. Note
that where a manufacturers’ engines are
imported through a wide variety of
means, EPA would not require this
description to be comprehensive. In
such cases, a short description of the
predominant practices would generally
be sufficient. We are also proposing to
require manufacturers of engines below
560 kW to name a test lab in the United
States for the possibility of us requiring
tests under a selective enforcement
audit. We have adopted these same
requirements in many of our other
nonroad programs.
• § 1039.225: Clarify that
manufacturers may amend the
application for certification after the end
of the model year only in certain
circumstances, and not to add a new or
modified engine configuration.
• § 1039.235: Add an explicit
allowance for carryover engine families
to include the same kind of withinfamily running changes that are
currently allowed over the course of a
model year. The original text may have
been understood to require that such
running changes be made separate from
certifying the engine family for the new
model year.
• §§ 1039.235, 1039.240, and
1039.601: Describe how to demonstrate
compliance with dual-fuel and flexiblefuel engines. This generally involves
testing with each separate fuel, or with
a worst-case fuel blend.
• § 1039.240: Add instructions for
calculating deterioration factors for
sawtooth deterioration patterns, such as
might be expected for periodic
maintenance, such as cleaning or
replacing diesel particulate filters.
• § 1039.240: Remove the instruction
related to calculating NMHC emissions
from measured THC results, since this is
addressed in 40 CFR part 1065.
• § 1039.250: Remove references to
routine and standard tests, and remove
the shorter recordkeeping requirement
for routine data (or data from routine
tests). All test records must be kept for
eight years. With electronic recording of
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test data, there should be no advantage
to keeping the shorter recordkeeping
requirement for a subset of test data.
EPA also notes that the eight-year
period restarts with certification for a
new model year if the manufacturer
uses carryover data.
• § 1039.255: Clarify that rendering
information false or incomplete after
submitting it is the same as submitting
false or incomplete information. For
example, if there is a change to any
corporate information or engine
parameters described in the
manufacturer’s application for
certification, the manufacturer must
amend the application to include the
new information.
• § 1039.255: Clarify that voiding
certificates for a recordkeeping or
reporting violation would be limited to
certificates that relate to the particular
recordkeeping or reporting failure.
• § 1039.505: Correct the reference to
the ISO C1 duty cycle for engines below
19 kW.
• § 1039.515: Correct the cite to 40
CFR 86.1370.
• §§ 1039.605 and 1039.610: Revise
the reporting requirement to require
detailed information about the previous
year, rather than requiring a detailed
projection for the year ahead. The
information required in advance would
be limited to a notification of plans to
use the provisions of these sections.
• § 1039.640: Migrate engine branding
to § 1068.45.
• § 1039.701 1039.730: Describe the
process for retiring emission credits.
This may be referred to as donating
credits to the environment.
• § 1039.705: Change terminology for
counting engines from ‘‘point of first
retail sale’’ to ‘‘U.S.-direction
production volume.’’ This conforms to
the usual approach for calculating
emission credits for nonroad engines.
• § 1039.710: Clarify that it is not
permissible to show a proper balance of
credits for a given model by using
emission credits from a future model
year.
• § 1039.730: Clarify terminology for
ABT reports.
• § 1039.740: Clarify that the
averaging-set provisions apply for
credits generated by Tier 4 engines, not
for credits generated from engines
subject to earlier standards that are used
with Tier 4 engines.
• § 1039.801: Update the contact
information for the Designated
Compliance Officer.
• § 1039.801: Revise the definition of
‘‘model year’’ to clarify that the calendar
year relates to the time that engines are
produced under a certificate of
conformity.
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• § 1039.815: Migrate provisions
related to confidential information to 40
CFR part 1068.
EPA requests comment on removing
regulatory provisions for Independent
Commercial Importers in 40 CFR part
1039. These provisions, copied from
highway regulations many years ago,
generally allow for small businesses to
modify small numbers of uncertified
products to be in a certified
configuration using alternative
demonstration procedures. We are not
aware of anyone using these provisions
for nonroad engines in the last 15 years
or more. We are therefore interested in
considering these provisions to be
obsolete, in which case they can be
removed without consequence.
H. Amendments Related to Marine
Diesel Engines in 40 CFR Parts 1042 and
1043
EPA’s emission standards and
certification requirements for marine
diesel engines under the Clean Air Act
are identified in 40 CFR part 1042.
(1) Continuous NOX Monitoring and OnOff Controls
Manufacturers may produce certain
marine diesel engines with on-off
features that disable NOX controls when
the ship is operating outside of a
designated Emission Control Area (ECA)
as long as certain conditions are met
(§ 1042.115(g)). This provision, which
applies to Category 3 engines meeting
EPA Tier 3 standards, is intended to
address the special operating conditions
posed by an ECA and allows a ship that
operates in and out of designated ECAs
to downgrade engine NOX emission
controls while the ship is operating
outside of a designated ECA. This
provision also applies for Tier 4 NOX
standards for those Category 1 and
Category 2 auxiliary engines on
Category 3 vessels covered by
§ 1042.650(d); this provision does not
apply to any other auxiliary engines or
to any non-Category 3 propulsion
engines. Engines with allowable on-off
controls must be certified to meet the
previous tier of NOX standards when the
advanced NOX control strategies are
disabled (note that this would be Tier 2
for auxiliary engines as well as Category
3 engines, pursuant to § 1042.650(d)).
Engines with on-off NOX controls are
required to be equipped to continuously
monitor NOX concentrations in the
exhaust (§ 1042.110(d)). EPA has been
asked to clarify what ‘‘continuous’’
means in the context of this
requirement. Because the purpose of
this requirement is to show that the
engine complies with the NOX emission
limits on a continuous basis, continuous
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monitoring must be frequent enough to
demonstrate that the NOX controls are
on and are properly functioning from
the time the ship enters the ECA until
it leaves, which, depending on the ECA
and the ship’s itinerary, could be a
matter of hours or days. Since many
manufacturers equip their emission
control systems with NOX sensors to
monitoring and log the performance of
the combined engine and emission
control system, we are proposing that
continuous monitoring means
measuring NOX emissions at least every
60 seconds. EPA is also proposing that
a manufacturer may request approval of
an alternative measurement period if
that is necessary for sufficiently
accurate measurements. With regard to
the functioning of continuous NOX
monitoring, the continuous emission
measurement device would be required
to be included as part of the engine
system for EPA certification.
Continuous NOX monitoring would be
required to be engaged before the ship
enters an ECA and continue until after
it exits the ECA. Verification of
operation of the system would be
included in required periodic vessel
surveys and certification that cover
nearly all commercial U.S. vessels.
Enforcement is expected to be
performed on a periodic basis by
appropriate authorities when a ship is
in port.
It should be noted that the above
provisions with respect to on-off
controls and continuous emission
monitoring do not apply for the 40 CFR
part 1042 PM standards. Engines
certified to standards under 40 CFR part
1042 must meet the PM limits at all
times, except when the operator has
applied for and received permission to
disable Tier 4 PM controls while
operating outside the United States
pursuant to any of the provisions of 40
CFR 1042.650(a) through (c).
(2) Category 1 and Category 2 Auxiliary
Engines on Category 3 Vessels
The regulation at 40 CFR 1042.650(d)
exempts auxiliary Category 1 and
Category 2 engines installed on U.S.-flag
Category 3 vessels from the part 1042
standards if those auxiliary engines
meet certain conditions. This provision
is intended to facilitate compliance with
MARPOL Annex VI by certain qualified
Category 3 vessels engaged in
international trade and to simplify
compliance demonstrations while those
vessels are operating in foreign ports
and foreign waters. EPA is proposing
two revisions to make clear that the
engines on the Category 3 vessel must
remain in compliance with Annex VI,
and EPA is providing clarifying
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language relating to engines with a
power output of 130 kW or less.
First, EPA is proposing to revise the
regulations to clarify that the urea
reporting requirements in § 1042.660(b)
(which requires an owner or operator of
any vessel equipped with SCR to report
to EPA within 30 days of any operation
of such vessel without the appropriate
reductant) also apply to Category 1 and
Category 2 auxiliary engines on
Category 3 vessels that are covered by
§ 1042.650(d). This will extend the urea
reporting requirements to engines
between 130 and 600 kW if they rely on
SCR to meet the Annex VI Tier III NOX
limits. Engines covered by § 1043.650(d)
would be subject to emission standards
and testing requirements under
MARPOL Annex VI and the NOX
Technical Code.
Second, EPA is proposing to revise 40
CFR 1042.650(d) to clarify that, while
these Category 1 and Category 2
auxiliary engines may be designed with
on-off NOX controls, Annex VI requires
that the engines be certified to meet
IMO Tier II NOX standards anytime the
IMO Tier III NOX configuration is
disabled.
EPA has become aware that there is
some uncertainty about how the scope
of EPA’s implementation of Annex VI
through 40 CFR part 1043 relates to
engines with a power output of 130 kW
or less. The existing regulations at
§ 1043.30 state that an EIAPP certificate
is required for engines with a power
output above 130 kW, but the standards
described in § 1043.60 might be
interpreted to apply to engines of all
sizes. EPA did not intend to appear to
create additional requirements or
authority under part 1043 that is not
contained in Annex VI or its
implementing legislation (the Act to
Prevent Pollution from Ships). EPA is
therefore proposing to add clarifying
language to § 1043.60, consistent with
Regulation 13 of Annex VI and APPS, to
indicate that the international NOX
limits do not apply to engines with a
power output of 130 kW or less. Note
that EPA therefore may not issue EIAPP
certificates for engines with a power
output of 130 kW or less even if
manufacturers request it; this also
means that such auxiliary engines are
not eligible for an exemption under
§ 1042.650(d).
(3) Natural Gas Marine Engines
EPA is also proposing to expand
provisions that apply for marine engines
designed to operate on both diesel fuel
and natural gas. Test requirements
apply separately for each ‘‘fuel type’’.
EPA generally considers an engine with
a single calibration strategy that
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combines an initial pilot injection of
diesel fuel to burn natural gas to be a
single fuel type. This applies even if the
natural gas portion must be
substantially reduced or eliminated to
maintain proper engine operation at
light-load conditions. If the engine has
a different calibration allowing it to run
only on diesel fuel, or on continuous
mixtures of diesel fuel and natural gas,
we would consider it to be a dual-fuel
engine or a flexible-fuel engine,
respectively. These terms are used
consistently across EPA programs for
highway and nonroad applications.
There is an effort underway to revise the
definition of ‘‘dual-fuel’’ in MARPOL
Annex VI, which may be different than
EPA’s definition. It should be noted that
the 40 CFR part 1042 certification
testing requirement differs from that
specified in MARPOL Annex VI and the
NOX Technical Code. While the
international protocol involves testing
only on the engine calibration with the
greatest degree of diesel fuel, EPA
certification requires manufacturers to
perform testing on each separate fuel
type. This would involve one set of tests
with natural gas (with or without a
diesel pilot fuel, as appropriate), and an
additional set of tests with diesel fuel
alone. This has been required since we
first adopted standards, and this is the
same policy that applies across all our
emission control programs. EPA also
proposes to include amended regulatory
language to more carefully describe
these testing requirements, and to
specify how this applies differently for
dual-fuel and flexible-fuel engines.
(4) Additional Marine Diesel
Amendments
EPA is proposing to make numerous
changes across 40 CFR part 1042 to
correct errors, to add clarification, and
to make adjustments based on lessons
learned from implementing these
regulatory provisions. This includes the
following proposed changes:
• § 1042.1: Correct the tabulated
applicability date for engines with percylinder displacement between 7 and 15
liters; this should refer to engines ‘‘at or
above’’ 7 liters, rather than ‘‘above 7
liters’’.
• § 1042.1: Replace an incorrect
reference to 40 CFR part 89 with a
reference to 40 CFR part 94 for marine
engines above 37 kW.
• § 1042.2: Add a clarifying note to
say that something other than a
conventional ‘‘manufacturer’’ may need
to certify engines that become new after
being placed into service (such as
engines converted from highway or
stationary use). This is intended to
address a possible assumption that only
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conventional manufacturers can certify
engines.
• §§ 1042.30, 1042.730, and 1042.825:
Consolidate information-collection
provisions into a single section.
• § 1042.101: Revise the text to more
carefully identify engine subcategories
and better describe the transition
between Tier 3 and Tier 4 standards.
These changes are intended to clarify
which standards apply and are not
intended to change the emission
standards for any particular size or type
of engine.
• § 1042.101 and Appendix III: More
precisely define applicability of specific
NTE standards for different types of
engines and pollutants; correct formulas
defining NTE zones and subzones; and
add clarifying information to identify
subzone points that could otherwise be
derived from existing formulas. None of
these changes are intended to change
the standards, test procedures, or other
policies for implementing the NTE
standards.
• § 1042.101: Clarify the FEL caps for
certain engines above 3700 kW.
• § 1042.101: Add a specification to
define ‘‘continuous monitor’’ for
parameters requiring repeated discrete
measurements, as described above. The
proposal also includes further
clarification on the relationship between
on-off NOX controls and engine
diagnostic systems.
• § 1042.110: Remove the
requirement to notify operators
regarding an unsafe operating condition,
since we can more generally rely on the
broader provision in § 1042.115 that
prohibits manufacturers from
incorporating design strategies that
introduce an unreasonable safety risk
during engine operation.
• § 1042.120: Reduce extendedwarranty requirements to warranties
that are actually provided to the
consumer, rather than to any published
warranties that are offered. The
principle is that the emission-related
warranty should not be less effective for
emission-related items than for items
that are not emission-related.
• § 1042.125: Allow for special
maintenance procedures that address
low-use engines. For example, owners
of recreational marine vessels may need
to perform engine maintenance after a
smaller number of hours than would
otherwise apply based on the limited
engine operation over time.
• § 1042.125: Establish a minimum
maintenance interval of 1500 hours for
DEF filters. This reflects the technical
capabilities for filter durability and the
expected maintenance in the field.
• § 1042.135: Clarify that ULSD
labeling is required only for engines that
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use sulfur-sensitive technology. If an
engine can meet applicable emission
standards without depending on the use
of ULSD, the manufacturer should not
be required to state on the engine that
ULSD is required.
• § 1042.135: Allow for including
optional label content only if the
manufacturer does not opt to omit other
information based on limited
availability of space on the label.
• § 1042.201: Clarify that
manufacturers may amend their
application for certification after the end
of the model year in certain
circumstances, but they may not
produce engines for a given model year
after December 31 of the named year.
• § 1042.201: Establish that
manufacturers may deliver to EPA for
testing an engine that is identical to the
test engine used for certification. This
may be necessary if the test engine has
accumulated too many hours, or if it is
unavailable for any reason.
• §§ 1042.205 and 1042.840: Replace
the requirement to submit data from
invalid tests with a requirement to
simply notify EPA in the application for
certification if test was invalidated.
• § 1042.225: Clarify that
manufacturers may amend the
application for certification after the end
of the model year only in certain
circumstances, and not to add a new or
modified engine configuration.
• § 1042.235: Add an explicit
allowance for carryover engine families
to include the same kind of withinfamily running changes that are
currently allowed over the course of a
model year. The original text may have
been understood to require that such
running changes be made separate from
certifying the engine family for the new
model year.
• §§ 1042.235, 1042.240, and
1042.601: Describe how to demonstrate
compliance with dual-fuel and flexiblefuel engines. This generally involves
testing with each separate fuel, or with
a worst-case fuel blend.
• § 1042.240: Add instructions for
calculating deterioration factors for
sawtooth deterioration patterns, such as
might be expected for periodic
maintenance, such as cleaning or
replacing diesel particulate filters.
• § 1042.250: Remove references to
routine and standard tests, and remove
the shorter recordkeeping requirement
for routine data (or data from routine
tests). All test records must be kept for
eight years. With electronic recording of
test data, there should be no advantage
to keeping the shorter recordkeeping
requirement for a subset of test data.
EPA also notes that the eight-year
period restarts with certification for a
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new model year if the manufacturer
uses carryover data.
• § 1042.255: Clarify that rendering
information false or incomplete after
submitting it is the same as submitting
false or incomplete information. For
example, if there is a change to any
corporate information or engine
parameters described in the
manufacturer’s application for
certification, the manufacturer must
amend the application to include the
new information.
• § 1042.255: Clarify that voiding
certificates for a recordkeeping or
reporting violation would be limited to
certificates that relate to the particular
recordkeeping or reporting failure.
• § 1042.302: Clarify that
manufacturers may fulfill the
requirement to test each Category 3
production engine by performing the
test before or after the engine is installed
in the vessel. The largest Category 3
engines are assembled in the vessel, but
some smaller Category 3 engines are
assembled at a manufacturing facility
where they can be more easily tested.
Manufacturers must perform such
testing on fully assembled production
engines rather than relying on test
results from test bed engines.
• § 1042.501: Remove test procedure
specifications that are already covered
in 40 CFR part 1065.
• § 1042.505: Correct the reference to
the ISO C1 duty cycle in 40 CFR part
1039.
• § 1042.515: Remove an incorrect
cite.
• §§ 1042.605 and 1042.610: Revise
the reporting requirement to require
detailed information about the previous
year, rather than requiring a detailed
projection for the year ahead. The
information required in advance would
be limited to a notification of plans to
use the provisions of these sections.
• § 1042.630: Clarify that dockside
examinations are not inspections.
Vessels subject to Coast Guard
inspection are identified in 46 U.S.C.
3301.
• § 1042.640: Migrate engine branding
to § 1068.45.
• § 1042.650: Clarify that vessel
operators may modify certified engines
if they will be operated for an extended
period outside the United States where
ULSD will be unavailable. This does not
preclude the possibility of vessel
operators restoring engines to a certified
configuration in anticipation of bring
the vessel back to the United States.
• § 1042.660: Identify the contact
information for submitting reports
related to operation without SCR
reductant.
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• § 1042.670: Specify that gas turbine
engines are presumed to have an
equivalent power density below 35 kW
per liter of engine displacement; this is
needed to identify which Tier 3
standards apply.
• § 1042.701: Clarify that emission
credits generated under 40 CFR part 94
may be used for demonstrating
compliance with the Tier 3 and Tier 4
standards in 40 CFR part 1042.
• §§ 1042.701 and 1042.730: Describe
the process for retiring emission credits.
This may be referred to as donating
credits to the environment.
• § 1042.705: Change terminology for
counting engines from ‘‘point of first
retail sale’’ to ‘‘U.S.-direction
production volume.’’ This conforms to
the usual approach for calculating
emission credits for nonroad engines.
• § 1042.710: Clarify that it is not
permissible to show a proper balance of
credits for a given model by using
emission credits from a future model
year.
• § 1042.730: Clarify terminology for
ABT reports.
• § 1042.810: Clarify that it is only the
remanufacturing standards of subpart I,
not the certification standards that are
the subject of the applicability
determination in § 1042.810.
• § 1042.830: Add a provision to
specifically allow voluntary labeling for
engines that are not subject to
remanufacturing standards, and to
clarify that the label is required for
engines that are subject to
remanufacturing standards.
• § 1042.901: Update the contact
information for the Designated
Compliance Officer.
• § 1042.901: Revise the definition of
‘‘model year’’ to correct cites and clarify
that the calendar year relates to the time
that engines are produced under a
certificate of conformity.
• §§ 1042.901 and 1042.910: Update
the reference documents for Annex VI
and NOX Technical Code to include
recent changes from the International
Maritime Organization.
• § 1042.915: Migrate provisions
related to confidential information to 40
CFR part 1068.
I. Amendments Related to Locomotives
in 40 CFR Part 1033
EPA’s emission standards and
certification requirements for
locomotives and locomotive engines
under the Clean Air Act are identified
in 40 CFR part 1033.
EPA is proposing to revise the engine
mapping provisions in 40 CFR part 1033
for locomotive testing to denote that
manufacturers do not have to meet the
cycle limit values in 40 CFR 1065.514
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when testing complete locomotives.
Also, for engine testing with a
dynamometer, while the validation
criteria of CFR 1065.514 apply, EPA
proposes to allow manufacturers the
option to check validation using
manufacturer-declared values for
maximum torque, power, and speed.
This option would allow them to omit
engine mapping under 40 CFR
1065.510, which is already not required.
These provisions would reduce test
burden and cost for the manufacturer,
while preserving the integrity of the
certification requirements.
EPA is also proposing text that
describes the alternate ramped-model
cycle provisions in 40 CFR part 1033 as
some of the notch setting and durations
are inconsistent with the description of
the duty cycle in Table 1 of 40 CFR
1033.520. EPA has determined that the
table is correct as published and the
error lies in the text describing how to
carry out the ramped-modal test.
We are also proposing to clarify that
locomotives operating on a combination
of diesel fuel and gaseous fuel are
subject to NMHC standards, which is
the same as if the locomotives operated
only on gaseous fuel. With respect to inuse fuels, we are proposing a
clarification in 40 CFR 1033.815
regarding allowable fuels for certain
Tier 4 and later locomotives.
Specifically, we would note that
locomotives certified on ultra-low sulfur
diesel fuel, but that do not include
sulfur sensitive emission controls, could
use low sulfur diesel fuel instead of
ultra-low sulfur diesel fuel, consistent
with good engineering judgment. For
example, an obvious case where this
would be appropriate (but not the only
possible case), would be if a railroad
had emission data showing the
locomotive still met the applicable
standards/FELs while operating on the
higher sulfur fuel.
EPA is requesting comment on four
additional locomotive provisions. The
first is the allowance in 40 CFR
1033.101(g)(3) for shorter useful lives
for non-locomotive-specific engines—
that is, engines not specifically designed
for use in locomotives. For normal
locomotive engines, the minimum
useful life is specified in terms of MWhrs as the product of the rated
horsepower multiplied by 7.50.
However, the regulations allow
manufacturers/remanufacturers of
locomotives with non-locomotivespecific engines to ask for a shorter
useful life if the locomotives will rarely
operate longer than the shorter useful
life. Second, we request comment
regarding the need for additional
guidance on applying this provision.
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For example, would it be helpful if we
specified that the default alternative
minimum useful life under this
provision would be 6.00 (instead of
7.50) times the rated horsepower? Third,
we request comment on whether EPA
should consider notch-specific engine/
alternator efficiencies to be confidential
business information, and whether we
need to update the URL listed in 40 CFR
1033.150(a)(4). Fourth, we request
comment on extending the provisions of
40 CFR 1033.101(i) to Tier 4
locomotives. This generally involves a
less stringent CO standard in tandem
with over-complying with the PM
standard. Specifically, this option,
which currently applies for Tier 2 and
earlier locomotives, requires PM
emissions be at least 50 percent below
the normally applicable PM standard.
The existing provisions were developed
to provide a compliance path for natural
gas locomotives that reflected both the
technological capabilities of natural gas
locomotives and the relative
environmental significance of CO and
PM emissions. This provision was not
applied to Tier 4 locomotives, because
the applicable Tier 4 p.m. standard is
already very low (0.03 g/hp-hr). If we
were to apply a similar provision
corresponding to Tier 4 standards, we
would need to select PM and CO levels
that are properly paired to manage this
tradeoff. We request comment on
whether it is appropriate to pursue such
alternate standards, and on the specific
numerical standards for PM and CO that
would represent an equivalent level of
stringency relative to the published
standards.
EPA is proposing to make numerous
additional changes across 40 CFR part
1033 to correct errors, to add
clarification, and to make adjustments
based on lessons learned from
implementing these regulatory
provisions. This includes the following
proposed changes:
• §§ 1033.30, 1033.730, and 1033.925:
Consolidate information-collection
provisions into a single section.
• § 1033.101: Allow manufacturers to
certify Tier 4 and later locomotives
using Low Sulfur Diesel fuel instead of
Ultra-Low Sulfur Diesel fuel.
Manufacturers may wish to do this to
show that their locomotives do not
include sulfur sensitive technology.
§ 1033.120: Reduce extended-warranty
requirements to warranties that are
actually provided to customers, rather
than to any published warranties that
are offered. The principle is that the
emission-related warranty should not be
less effective for emission-related items
than for items that are not emissionrelated.
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• § 1033.201: Clarify that
manufacturers may amend their
application for certification after the end
of the model year in certain
circumstances, but they may not
produce locomotives for a given model
year after December 31 of the named
year.
• § 1033.201: Establish that
manufacturers may deliver to EPA for
testing a locomotive/engine that is
identical to the test locomotive/engine
used for certification. This may be
necessary if the test locomotive/engine
has accumulated too many hours, or if
it is unavailable for any reason.
• § 1033.225: Clarify that
manufacturers may amend the
application for certification after the end
of the model year only in certain
circumstances, and not to add a new or
modified locomotive configuration.
• § 1033.235: Add an explicit
allowance for carryover engine families
to include the same kind of withinfamily running changes that are
currently allowed over the course of a
model year. The original text may have
been understood to require that such
running changes be made separate from
certifying the engine family for the new
model year.
• §§ 1033.235, 1033.245, and
1033.601: Describe how to demonstrate
compliance with dual-fuel and flexiblefuel locomotives. This generally
involves testing with each separate fuel,
or with a worst-case fuel blend.
• § 1033.245: Add instructions for
calculating deterioration factors for
sawtooth deterioration patterns, such as
might be expected for periodic
maintenance, such as cleaning or
replacing diesel particulate filters.
• § 1033.250: Remove references to
routine and standard tests, and remove
the shorter recordkeeping requirement
for routine data (or data from routine
tests). All test records must be kept for
eight years. With electronic recording of
test data, there should be no advantage
to keeping the shorter recordkeeping
requirement for a subset of test data.
EPA also notes that the eight-year
period restarts with certification for a
new model year if the manufacturer
uses carryover data.
• § 1033.255: Clarify that rendering
information false or incomplete after
submitting it is the same as submitting
false or incomplete information. For
example, if there is a change to any
corporate information or engine
parameters described in the
manufacturer’s application for
certification, the manufacturer must
amend the application to include the
new information.
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• § 1033.255: Clarify that voiding
certificates for a recordkeeping or
reporting violation would be limited to
certificates that relate to the particular
recordkeeping or reporting failure.
• § 1033.501: Clarify how testing
requirements apply differently for
locomotive engines and for complete
locomotives.
• § 1033.501: Add paragraph (a)(4) to
remove proportionality verification for
discrete-mode tests if a single batch fuel
measurement is used to determine raw
exhaust flow rate. This verification
involves statistical assessment that is
not valid for the single data point.
Requiring manufacturers instead to
simply ensure constant sample flow
should adequately address the concern,
• §§ 1033.515 and 1033.520: Update
terminology by referring to ‘‘test
intervals’’ instead of ‘‘phases’’. This
allows us to be consistent with
terminology used in 40 CFR part 1065.
• § 1033.520: Correct the example
given to describe the testing transition
after the second test interval.
• §§ 1033.701 and 1033.730: Describe
the process for retiring emission credits.
This may be referred to as donating
credits to the environment.
• § 1033.710: Clarify that it is not
permissible to show a proper balance of
credits for a given model by using
emission credits from a future model
year.
• § 1033.730: Clarify terminology for
ABT reports.
• § 1033.815: Add consideration of
periodic locomotive inspections in 184day intervals.
• § 1033.901: Update the contact
information for the Designated
Compliance Officer.
• § 1033.915: Migrate provisions
related to confidential information to 40
CFR part 1068.
J. Miscellaneous EPA Amendments
EPA is proposing to clarify that the
cold NMHC standards specified in 40
CFR 86.1811–17 do not apply at high
altitude. We intended in recent
amendments to state that the cold CO
standards apply at both low and high
altitude, but inadvertently placed that
statement where it also covered cold
NMHC standards, which contradicts
existing regulatory provisions that
clearly describe the cold NMHC
standards as applying only for lowaltitude testing. The proposed change
would simply move the new clarifying
language to apply only to cold CO
standards. We are also proposing to
restore the cold NMHC standards in
paragraph (g)(2), which were
inadvertently removed as part of the
earlier amendments.
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EPA is proposing to revise the
specifications for Class 2b and Class 3
vehicles certifying early to the Tier 3
exhaust emission standards under 40
CFR 86.1816–18 to clarify that carryover
values for PM and formaldehyde apply.
The preamble to the earlier final rule
described these standards properly, but
the regulations inadvertently pointed to
the Tier 3 values for PM and
formaldehyde for these vehicles.
EPA is proposing to make a minor
correction to the In-Use Compliance
Program under 40 CFR 86.1846–01. A
recent amendment describing how to
use SFTP test results in the compliance
determination inadvertently removed a
reference to low-mileage SFTP testing.
We are proposing to restore the removed
text.
EPA is proposing to revise the
instruction for creating road-load
coefficients for cold temperature testing
in 40 CFR 1066.710 to simply refer back
to 40 CFR 1066.305 where this is
described more generally. The text
originally adopted in 40 CFR 1066.710
incorrectly describes the calculation for
determining those coefficients.
EPA is also proposing two minor
amendments related to highway
motorcycles. First, we are proposing to
correct an error related to the smallvolume provisions for highway
motorcycles. The regulation includes an
inadvertent reference to a small-volume
threshold based on an annual volume of
3,000 motorcycles produced in the
United States. As written, this would
not consider any foreign motorcycle
production for importation into the
United States. This error is corrected by
simply revising the text to refer to an
annual production volume of
motorcycles produced ‘‘for’’ the United
States. This would properly reflect
small-volume production as it relates to
compliance with EPA standards.
Second, we are proposing to clarify the
language describing how to manage the
precision of emission results, both for
measured values and for calculating
values when applying a deterioration
factor. This involves a new reference to
the rounding procedures in 40 CFR part
1065 to replace the references to
outdated ASTM procedures. EPA is
proposing in 40 CFR 1037.601(a)(3) to
clarify that the Clean Air Act does not
allow any person to disable, remove, or
render inoperative (i.e., tamper with)
emission controls on a certified motor
vehicle for purposes of competition. An
existing provision in 40 CFR 1068.235
provides an exemption for nonroad
engines converted for competition use.
This provision reflects the explicit
exclusion of engines used solely for
competition from the CAA definition of
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‘‘nonroad engine’’. The proposed
amendment clarifies that this part 1068
exemption does not apply for motor
vehicles.
K. Amending 49 CFR Parts 512 and 537
To Allow Electronic Submissions and
Defining Data Formats for Light-Duty
Vehicle Corporate Average Fuel
Economy (CAFE) Reports
To improve efficiency and reduce the
burden to manufacturers and the
agencies, NHTSA is proposing to
modify 49 CFR part 537 eliminating the
option for manufacturers to submit premodel, mid-model and supplemental
reports on CD–ROMS and require only
one electronic submission (for each
report) electronically via a method
proscribed by NHTSA. NHTSA is
introducing a new electronic format to
standardize the method for collecting
manufacturer’s information. NHTSA
also proposes to modify 49 CFR part 512
to include and protect submitted CAFE
data elements that need to be treated as
confidential business information.
49 CFR part 537 currently requires
manufacturers to provide reports to
NHTSA containing projected estimates
of how manufacturers plan to comply
with NHTSA standards. In the CAFE
final rule for vehicles manufactured for
model years 2017–2025, NHTSA
modified its reporting requirements at
49 CFR 537.5(c)(4) to eliminate the
option for manufacturers to mail
hardcopy submissions of CAFE reports
to NHTSA and required all reports to be
submitted electronically by CD–ROM
(CBI and non-CBI versions) or by email
(non-CBI version).881 Currently, any
data provided in the manufacturer’s
report is required in MS-Excel
spreadsheet format. Supporting
documentation such as cover letters or
requests for confidentiality is required
to be provided in a pdf format.
NHTSA is proposing to change the
required format for CAFE data required
under 49 CFR 537.7(b) and (c) in order
to standardize submissions and better
align with data provided to EPA. For
model year 2013 through 2015 most
manufacturer reports received by
NHTSA lacked the required format
adopted in the 2017–2025 final rule.
NHTSA is therefore adopting a
standardized template for manufacturers
to report model type level data. The
template organizes the required data in
a consistent manner, adopts formats for
values consistent with those provided to
EPA for similar values and calculates
manufacturer’s target standard.
Calculating target standards is preferred
because it reduces errors in
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manufacturer’s determinations.
However, NHTSA’s long-term goal is to
standardize the required data for
incorporation into an electronic
database system and this first step
facilities a structure for coding the
electronic data which will ultimately
reduce manufacturer’s and the
government’s burden for reporting.
NHTSA rationalizes that establishing
a required format is necessary because
manufacturers may not understand how
to provide the required CAFE data. In
the 2017 to 2025 final rule, NHTSA
modified its base tire definition to better
align with the approach manufacturers
use to determine model type target
standards. CAFE standards are attribute
based, and thus each manufacturer has
its own ‘‘standard,’’ or compliance
obligation, defined by the vehicles it
produces for sale in each fleet in a given
model year. A manufacturer calculates
its fleet standard from the attribute
based target curve standards derived
from the unique footprint values, which
are the products of the average front and
rear vehicle track width and wheelbase
dimensions, of the vehicles in each
model type. Vehicle track width
dimensions are determined with a
vehicle equipped with ‘‘base tires,’’
which NHTSA currently defines in 49
CFR part 523 as (for passenger
automobiles, light trucks, and medium
duty passenger vehicles) the tire size
specified as standard equipment by the
manufacturer on each unique
combination of a vehicle’s footprint and
model type. Standard equipment is
defined in 40 CFR 86.1803–01. NHTSA
made these changes to provide a clear
definition for footprint calculations and,
thus, fleet compliance projections,
calculations, finalizations and
enforcement efforts. Beginning in model
year 2013, as modified in 49 CFR
537.7(b), manufacturers were to provide
attribute characteristics and standards
in consideration of the change in the
base tire definition for each unique
model type and footprint combination
of the manufacturer’s automobiles.
Manufacturers were required to provide
the data listed by model types in order
of increasing average inertia weight
from top to bottom down the left side
of the table and list the information
categories in the order specified in 49
CFR 537.7(b)(3)(i) and (ii) from left to
right across the top of the table.
Manufacturers could also provide the
data using any format required by EPA,
which contains all of the required
information in a readily identifiable
format.
In the 2017–2025 final rule,
additional changes to NHTSA’s
reporting requirements also included a
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modification to 49 CFR 537.7(b) to
restructure and clarify how
manufacturers report information used
to make the determination that an
automobile can be classified as a light
truck for CAFE purposes. The agency
felt that this proposed change was
necessary because the previous
requirements in 49 CFR part 537
specified that manufacturers must
provide information on some, but not
all, of the functions and features used to
classify an automobile as a light truck,
and it is important for compliance
reasons to understand and be able to
readily verify the methods used to
ensure manufacturers are classifying
vehicles correctly. Furthermore, the
previous regulation required that the
information be distributed in different
locations throughout a manufacturer’s
report, making it difficult for the agency
to clearly determine exactly what
functions or features a manufacturer is
using to classify a vehicle as a light
truck. Therefore, NHTSA streamlined
the location of all its provisions for
defining vehicle classifications into one
consolidate section. With these changes,
manufacturers can provide the agency
with all the necessary data in a simpler
format that allows the agency, and
perhaps also the manufacturer, to
understand quickly and easily how light
truck vehicle classification
determination decisions are made.
In reviewing manufacturers current
reporting, most manufacturers are still
failing to provide the required
information for classifying light trucks.
For the model year 2015 pre-model year
reports, only a few manufacturers
provided the required information and
many provided the information
incorrectly. Therefore, NHTSA is also
proposing to incorporate an additional
template for collecting vehicle
configuration level data which includes
vehicle classification information.
Similarly, the template will standardize
the format of the data with values
required by EPA and structures the data
for future incorporation into a database
system. Finally, the template also
simplifies reporting by not having
manufacturers report all vehicle
classification characteristics but only
those used by the manufacturer in
qualifying a vehicle as a light truck.
NHTSA is adopting this provision to
better align with EPA current database
structure which uses a similar approach
in accepting light truck level data.
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XV. Statutory and Executive Order
Reviews
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A. Executive Order 12866: Regulatory
Planning and Review and Executive
Order 13563: Improving Regulation and
Regulatory Review
This action is an economically
significant regulatory action that was
submitted to the Office of Management
and Budget (OMB) for review. Any
changes made in response to OMB
recommendations have been
documented in the docket. The agencies
prepared an analysis of the potential
costs and benefits associated with this
action. This analysis, the draft
‘‘Regulatory Impact Analysis—HeavyDuty GHG and Fuel Efficiency
Standards NPRM,’’ is available in the
docket. The analyses contained in this
document are also summarized in
Sections VII, VIII, and IX of this
preamble.
B. National Environmental Policy Act
NHTSA has initiated the
Environmental Impact Statement (EIS)
process under the National
Environmental Policy Act (NEPA), 42
U.S.C. 4321–4347, and implementing
regulations issued by the Council on
Environmental Quality (CEQ), 40 CFR
part 1500, and NHTSA, 49 CFR part
520. On July 9, 2014, NHTSA published
a notice of intent to prepare an EIS for
this rulemaking and requested scoping
comments (79 FR 38842). The notice
invited Federal, State, and local
agencies, Indian tribes, stakeholders,
and the public to participate in the
scoping process and to help identify the
environmental issues and reasonable
alternatives to be examined in the EIS.
Concurrently with this proposed rule,
NHTSA is releasing a Draft
Environmental Impact Statement (DEIS).
NHTSA prepared the DEIS to analyze
and disclose the potential
environmental impacts of the proposed
HD fuel consumption standards and
reasonable alternatives. Environmental
impacts analyzed in the DEIS include
those related to fuel and energy use, air
quality, and climate change. The DEIS
also describes potential environmental
impacts to a variety of resource areas,
including water resources, biological
resources, land use and development,
safety, hazardous materials and
regulated wastes, noise,
socioeconomics, and environmental
justice. These resource areas are
assessed qualitatively in the DEIS.
The DEIS analyzes five alternative
approaches to regulating HD vehicle
fuel consumption, including a
‘‘preferred alternative’’ and a ‘‘no action
alternative.’’ The DEIS evaluates a
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reasonable range of alternatives under
NEPA, and analyzes the direct, indirect,
and cumulative impacts of those
alternatives in proportion to their
significance.
Because of the link between the
transportation sector and GHG
emissions, NHTSA recognizes the need
to consider the possible impacts on
climate and global climate change in the
analysis of the effects of these fuel
consumption standards. NHTSA also
recognizes the difficulties and
uncertainties involved in such an
impact analysis. Accordingly, consistent
with CEQ regulations on addressing
incomplete or unavailable information
in environmental impact analyses,
NHTSA has reviewed existing credible
scientific evidence that is relevant to
this analysis and summarized it in the
DEIS. NHTSA has also employed and
summarized the results of research
models generally accepted in the
scientific community.
Although the alternatives have the
potential to decrease GHG emissions
substantially, they do not prevent
climate change, but only result in
reductions in the anticipated increases
in CO2 concentrations, temperature,
precipitation, and sea level. They would
also, to a small degree, delay the point
at which certain temperature increases
and other physical effects stemming
from increased GHG emissions would
occur. As discussed in the EIS, NHTSA
presumes that these reductions in
climate effects will be reflected in
reduced impacts on affected resources.
The DEIS has informed NHTSA
decision makers in their preparation of
this proposed rule and in the ongoing
rulemaking process. NHTSA invites
comments on the DEIS from Federal,
State, and local agencies, Indian tribes,
stakeholders, and the public.
Instructions for submission of such
comments are included in the DEIS.
For additional information on
NHTSA’s NEPA analysis, please see the
DEIS. The DEIS is available on NHTSA’s
Web site and on https://
www.regulations.gov in Docket No.
NHTSA–2014–0074.
C. Paperwork Reduction Act
The information collection activities
in these proposed rules have been
submitted for approval to the Office of
Management and Budget (OMB) under
the PRA. The Information Collection
Request (ICR) document that EPA
prepared has been assigned EPA ICR
number 2394.04. You can find a copy of
the ICR in the docket for these proposed
rules, and it is briefly summarized here.
The agencies propose to collect
information to ensure compliance with
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the provisions in this proposal. This
includes a variety of testing, reporting
and recordkeeping requirements for
vehicle and engine manufacturers.
Section 208(a) of the CAA requires that
manufacturers provide information the
Administrator may reasonably require to
determine compliance with the
regulations; submission of the
information is therefore mandatory. We
will consider confidential all
information meeting the requirements of
Section 208(c) of the CAA.
Respondents/affected entities:
Respondents are manufacturers of
engines and vehicles within the North
American Industry Classification
System (NAICS) and use the coding
structure as defined by NAICS. 336111,
336112, 333618, 336120, 541514,
811112, 811198, 336111, 336112,
422720, 454312, 541514, 541690,
811198, 333618, 336510, for Motor
Vehicle Manufacturers, Engine and
Truck Manufacturers, Truck Trailer
Manufacturers, Commercial Importers of
Vehicles and Vehicle Components, and
Alternative Fuel Vehicle Converters and
Manufacturers.
Respondent’s obligation to respond:
The information that is subject to this
collection is collected whenever a
manufacturer applies for a certificate of
conformity. Under section 206 of the
CAA (42 U.S.C. 7521), a manufacturer
must have a certificate of conformity
before a vehicle or engine can be
introduced into commerce.
Estimated number of respondents: It
is estimated that this collection affects
approximately 155 engine and vehicle
manufacturers.
Frequency of response: Annually.
Total estimated burden: The burden
to the manufacturers affected by these
rules has a range based on the number
of engines and vehicles a manufacturer
produces. The estimated average annual
respondent burden associated with the
first three implementation years of the
Phase 2 program is 62,400 hours (see
Table XV–1). This estimated burden for
engine and vehicle manufacturers is an
average estimate for both new and
existing reporting requirements for
calendar years 2017, 2018 and 2019, in
which trailer manufacturers will
prepare for and begin certifying for
Phase 2 while Phase 1 will continue for
the other affected manufacturers.
Burden is defined at 5 CFR 1320.3(b).
Burden means the total time, effort, or
financial resources expended by persons
to generate, maintain, retain, or disclose
or provide information to or for a
Federal agency. This includes the time
needed to review instructions; develop,
acquire, install, and utilize technology
and systems for the purposes of
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collecting, validating, and verifying
information, processing and
maintaining information, and disclosing
and providing information; adjust the
existing ways to comply with any
previously applicable instructions and
requirements; train personnel to be able
to respond to a collection of
information; search data sources;
complete and review the collection of
information; and transmit or otherwise
disclose the information.
TABLE XV–1—BURDEN FOR REPORTING AND RECORDKEEPING REQUIREMENTS
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Number of Affected Vehicle
Manufacturers.
Annual Labor Hours for Each
Manufacturer to Prepare
and Submit Required Information.
Total Annual Information Collection Burden.
155.
Varies.
62,400
Hours.
Total estimated cost: The estimated
average annual cost associated with the
first three implementation years of the
Phase 2 program is approximately $8
million. This includes approximately
$3.3 million in capital and operation &
maintenance costs. This estimated cost
for engine and vehicle manufacturers is
an average estimate for both new and
existing testing, recordkeeping, and
reporting requirements for calendar
years 2017, 2018 and 2019, in which
trailer manufacturers will prepare for
and begin certifying for Phase 2 while
Phase 1 will continue for the other
affected manufacturers.
An agency may not conduct or
sponsor, and a person is not required to
respond to, a collection of information
unless it displays a currently valid OMB
control number. The OMB control
numbers for EPA’s regulations in title 40
are listed in 40 CFR part 9.
Submit your comments on the
agencies’ need for this information, the
accuracy of the provided burden
estimates and any suggested methods
for minimizing respondent burden to
EPA and NHTSA using the docket
identified at the beginning of these
proposed rules. You may also send your
ICR-related comments to OMB’s Office
of Information and Regulatory Affairs
via email to oira_submissions@
omb.eop.gov, Attention: Desk Officer for
EPA. Since OMB is required to make a
decision concerning the ICR between 30
and 60 days after receipt, OMB must
receive comments no later than August
12, 2015. The agencies will respond to
any ICR-related comments in the final
rules.
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NHTSA also separately submitted a
request to OMB for approval of a change
to an information collection activity that
is proposed in this rulemaking. The
information collection request was
previously assigned ICR No. 2127–0019
for 49 CFR part 537, ‘‘Automotive Fuel
Economy Reports.’’
The existing collection involves
vehicle manufacturers submitting
reports to the Secretary of
Transportation with preliminary
estimates demonstrating their ability to
comply with corporate average fuel
economy standards (CAFE) established
by 49 U.S.C. 32902 for each model year.
To improve efficiency and reduce
manufacturers’ and the government’s
burden, NHTSA is proposing to modify
49 CFR part 537 to require CAFE reports
to be submitted electronically via an
electronic database using a standardized
data format. The total estimated amount
of paperwork burden resulting from this
action that the federal government is
imposing on private businesses and
citizens is summarized below.
Respondents: Automobile
manufacturers.
Estimated Number of Respondents:
30.
Estimated Number of Responses: 54.
Some manufacturers have multiple
fleets (domestic passenger car, import
passenger car, light truck) and 49 CFR
part 537 requires a separate report for
each fleet.
Estimated Total Annual Burden:
Thirty automotive manufacturers must
comply with 49 CFR 537. For each
current model year, each manufacturer
is required to submit semi-annual
reports: A pre-model year report and a
mid-model year report. The pre-model
year report must be submitted during
the month of December, and the midmodel year report must be submitted
during the month of July. The total
number of responses submitted by
automotive manufacturers is 54. We
currently have a clearance based on
reports being received from 22
manufacturers with an estimated total
annual burden of 2,339 hours. Including
8 additional manufacturers, results in an
additional reporting burden of 850
hours. Adding that burden to the
existing burden of 2,339 hours, results
in a total of 3,189 hours.
Estimated Frequency: A pre-model
report and a mid-model report are
required to be submitted by
manufacturers once per model year for
each applicable fleet (domestic
passenger car, imported passenger car
and light trucks).
A copy of the 60 day notice for this
ICR containing the proposed changes is
included in the docket for this rule.
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NHTSA seeks public comments on all
aspects of this information collection,
including (a) whether the proposed
collection of information is necessary
for the Department’s performance, (b)
the accuracy of the estimated burden, (c)
ways for the Department to enhance the
quality, utility and clarity of the
information collection and (d) ways that
the burden could be minimized without
reducing the quality of the collected
information.
D. Regulatory Flexibility Act
Pursuant to section 603 of the RFA,
the agencies prepared an initial
regulatory flexibility analysis (IRFA)
that examines the impact of the
proposed rules on small entities along
with regulatory alternatives that could
minimize that impact. The complete
IRFA is available for review in the
docket and is summarized here. As
required by section 609(b) of the RFA,
EPA convened a Small Business
Advocacy Review (SBAR) Panel to
obtain advice and recommendations
from small entity representatives that
potentially would be subject to the
rule’s requirements. The SBAR Panel
evaluated the assembled materials and
small-entity comments on issues related
to elements of an IRFA. A copy of the
full SBAR Panel Report is available in
the rulemaking docket.
(1) Overview
The Regulatory Flexibility Act (RFA)
generally requires an agency to prepare
a regulatory flexibility analysis of any
rule subject to notice and comment
rulemaking requirements under the
Administrative Procedure Act or any
other statute unless the agency certifies
that the rule will not have a significant
economic impact on a substantial
number of small entities. Small entities
include small businesses, small
organizations, and small governmental
jurisdictions.
For purposes of assessing the impacts
of today’s rules on small entities, small
entity is defined as: (1) A small business
as defined by the Small Business
Administration’s (SBA) regulations at 13
CFR 121.201 (see table below); (2) a
small governmental jurisdiction that is a
government of a city, county, town,
school district or special district with a
population of less than 50,000; and (3)
a small organization that is any not-for
profit enterprise which is independently
owned and operated and is not
dominant in its field.
Table XV–2 provides an overview of
the primary SBA small business
categories potentially affected by this
regulation.
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TABLE XV–2—PRIMARY SMALL BUSINESS CATEGORIES POTENTIALLY AFFECTED BY THIS REGULATION
Industry
NAICS a
code
Industry expected in
rulemaking
Alternative Fuel Engine Converters .................
333999
811198
336120
336212
333924
Voc. Vehicle Chassis Manufacturers ...............
HD Trailer Manufacturers .................................
Defined as small entity by SBA if
less than or equal to:
NAICS description
Misc. General Purpose Machinery .................
All Other Automotive Repair & Maintenance
Heavy-Duty Truck Manufacturing ..................
Truck Trailer Manufacturing ...........................
Industrial Truck, Trailer & Stacker Machinery
500 employees.
$7.0 million (annual receipts).
1,000 employees.
500 employees.
750 employees.
Note:
a North American Industrial Classification System.
(2) Legal Basis for Agency Action
Heavy-duty vehicles are classified as
those with gross vehicle weight ratings
(GVWR) of greater than 8,500 lb. Section
202(a) of the Clean Air Act (CAA)
allows EPA to regulate new vehicles and
new engines by prescribing emission
standards for pollutants which the
Administrator finds ‘‘may reasonably be
anticipated to endanger public health or
welfare.’’ In 2009, EPA found that six
greenhouse gases (GHGs) were
anticipated to endanger public health or
welfare, and new motor vehicles and
new motor vehicle engines contribute to
that pollution. This finding was upheld
by the unanimous court in Coalition for
Responsible Regulation v. EPA, 684 F.
3d 102 (D.C. Cir. 2012). Acting under
the authority of the CAA, EPA set the
first phase of heavy-duty vehicle GHG
standards (Phase 1) and specified
certification requirements for emissions
of four GHGs emitted by mobile sources:
Carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrous oxide
(N2O), methane (CH4), and
hydrofluorocarbons (HFC).
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(3) Summary of Potentially Affected
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(6) Summary of SBREFA Panel Process
and Panel Outreach
For any emission control program,
EPA must have assurances that the
regulated products will meet the
standards. The program that EPA is
considering for manufacturers subject to
this proposal will include testing,
reporting, and recordkeeping
requirements. Testing requirements for
these manufacturers could include use
of EPA’s Greenhouse gas Emissions
Model (GEM) vehicle simulation tool to
obtain the overall CO2 emissions rate for
certification of vocational chassis and
trailers, aerodynamic testing to obtain
aerodynamic inputs to GEM for some
trailer manufacturers and engine
dynamometer testing for alternative fuel
engine converters to ensure their
conversions meet the proposed CO2,
CH4 and N2O engine standards.
Reporting requirements would likely
include emissions test data or model
inputs and results, technical data
related to the vehicles, and end-of-year
sales information. Manufacturers would
have to keep records of this information.
(a) Significant Panel Findings
The Small Business Advocacy Review
Panel (SBAR Panel, or the Panel)
considered regulatory options and
flexibilities to help mitigate potential
adverse effects on small businesses as a
result of these rules. During the SBREFA
Panel process, the Panel sought out and
received comments on the regulatory
options and flexibilities that were
presented to SERs and Panel members.
The recommendations of the Panel are
described below and are also located in
Section XX of the SBREFA Final Panel
Report, which is available in the public
docket.
(5) Related Federal Rules
Table XV–2 above lists industries/
sectors potentially affected by the
proposed rules. EPA is not aware of any
small businesses who manufacture
complete heavy-duty pickup trucks and
vans, heavy-duty engines, or Class 7 and
8 tractors.
EPA used the criteria for small
entities developed by the Small
Business Administration under the
North American Industry Classification
System (NAICS) as a guide. Information
about these entities comes from sources
including EPA’s certification data, trade
association databases, and previous
rulemakings that have affected these
industries. EPA then found employment
information for these companies using
the business information database
Hoover’s Online (a subsidiary of Dan
and Bradstreet). These entities fall
under the categories listed in the table.
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(4) Potential Reporting, Recordkeeping
and Compliance Burdens
The primary federal rule that is
related to the proposed Phase 2 rules
under consideration is the 2011
Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Fuel
Efficiency Standards for Medium- and
Heavy-Duty Engines and Vehicles (76
FR 57106). This Phase 1 rulemaking
would continue to be in effect in the
absence of these proposed rules. Several
Federal rules relate to heavy-duty
vehicles and to the proposed Phase 2
rules under consideration. The
Department of Transportation, through
NHTSA, has several safety requirements
for these vehicles. California adopted its
own greenhouse gas initiative, which
places aerodynamic requirements on
trailers used in long-haul applications.
None of these existing regulations were
found to conflict with the proposed
rulemaking.
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(b) Panel Process
As required by Section 609(b) of the
RFA, as amended by SBREFA, we also
conducted outreach to small entities
and convened an SBAR Panel to obtain
advice and recommendations of
representatives of the small entities that
potentially would be subject to the
rule’s requirements. On October 22,
2014, EPA’s Small Business Advocacy
Chairperson convened a Panel under
Section 609(b) of the RFA. In addition
to the Chair, the Panel consisted of the
Division Director of the Assessment and
Standards Division of EPA’s Office of
Transportation and Air Quality, the
Chief Counsel for Advocacy of the Small
Business Administration, and the
Administrator of the Office of
Information and Regulatory Affairs
within the Office of Management and
Budget.
As part of the SBAR Panel process, we
conducted outreach with
representatives of small businesses that
would potentially be affected by the
proposed rulemaking. We met with
these Small Entity Representatives
(SERs) to discuss the potential
rulemaking approaches and potential
options to decrease the impact of the
rulemaking on their industries. We
distributed outreach materials to the
SERs; these materials included
background on the rulemaking, possible
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regulatory approaches, and possible
rulemaking alternatives. The Panel met
with SERs from the industries that
would be directly affected by the Phase
2 rules on November 5, 2014 (trailer
manufacturers) and November 6, 2014
(engine converters and vocational
vehicle chassis manufacturers) to
discuss the outreach materials and
receive feedback on the approaches and
alternatives detailed in the outreach
packet. The Panel also met with SERs
on July 19, 2014 for an initial,
introductory outreach meeting, and held
a supplementary outreach meeting with
the trailer manufacturer SERs on
October 28, 2014. The Panel received
written comments from the SERs
following each meeting in response to
discussions had at the meeting and the
questions posed to the SERs by the
agency. The SERs were specifically
asked to provide comment on regulatory
alternatives that could help to minimize
the rule’s impact on small businesses.
The Panel’s findings and discussions
were based on the information that was
available during the term of the Panel
and issues that were raised by the SERs
during the outreach meetings and in
their comments. It was agreed that EPA
should consider the issues raised by the
SERs and discussions had by the Panel
itself, and that EPA should consider
comments on flexibility alternatives that
would help to mitigate negative impacts
on small businesses to the extent legally
allowable by the Clean Air Act.
Alternatives discussed throughout the
Panel process included those offered in
previous or current EPA rulemakings, as
well as alternatives suggested by SERs
and Panel members. A summary of
these recommendations is detailed
below, and a full discussion of the
regulatory alternatives and hardship
provisions discussed and recommended
by the Panel can be found in the
SBREFA Final Panel Report. A complete
discussion of the provisions for which
we are requesting comment and/or
proposing in this action can be found in
Sections IV.E and V.D of this preamble.
Also, the Panel Report includes all
comments received from SERs
(Appendix B of the Report) and
summaries of the two outreach meetings
that were held with the SERs. In
accordance with the RFA/SBREFA
requirements, the Panel evaluated the
aforementioned materials and SER
comments on issues related to the IRFA.
The Panel’s recommendations from the
Final Panel Report are discussed below.
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(c) Panel Recommendations
(iii) Non-Box Trailer Manufacturers
(i) Small Business Trailer Manufacturers
The Panel recommended no
aerodynamic requirements for non-box
trailers. The non-box trailer SERs
indicated that they had no experience
installing aerodynamic devices and had
only seen them in prototype-level
demonstrations. In terms of the
aerodynamic devices in use today, most
non-box trailer SERs identified unique
operations in which their trailers are
used that preclude the use of those
technologies.
Some non-box trailer manufacturers
had experience with LRR tires and ATI
systems. However, the non-box trailer
manufacturer SERs indicated that LRR
tires are not currently available for some
of their trailer types. The SERs noted
that tire manufacturers are currently
focused on box trailer applications and
there are only a few LRR tire models
that meet the needs of their customers.
The Panel recommended EPA ensure
appropriate availability of these tires in
order for it to be deemed a feasible
means of achieving these standards and
recommended a streamlined compliance
process based on the availability of
technologies. The Panel suggested the
best compliance option from a small
business perspective would be for EPA
to pre-approve tires, similar to the
approach being proposed for
aerodynamic technologies, and to
maintain a list that could be used to
exempt small businesses when no
suitable tires are available. However, the
Panel recognized the difficulties of
maintaining an up-to-date list of
certified technologies. The Panel
recommended that, if EPA did not adopt
the list-based approach, the agency
consider a simplified letter-based
compliance option that allows
manufacturers to petition EPA for an
exemption if they are unable to identify
tires that meet the LRR performance
requirements on a trailer family basis.
Comments from trailer manufacturer
SERs indicated that these companies are
familiar with most of the technologies
described in the materials, but have no
experience with EPA certification and
do not anticipate they could manage the
accounting and reporting requirements
without additional staff and extensive
training. Performance testing, which is a
common requirement for many of EPA’s
regulatory programs, is largely
unfamiliar to these small business
manufacturers and the SERs believed
the cost of testing would be a significant
burden on their companies. In light of
this feedback, the Panel recommended a
combination of streamlined compliance
and targeted exemptions for these small
businesses based on the specific trailer
types that they manufacture. The Panel
believed these strategies would achieve
many of the benefits for the
environment by driving adoption of
CO2-reducing technologies, while
significantly reducing the burden that
these new regulations would introduce
on small businesses.
(ii) Box Trailer Manufacturers
Box trailer manufacturers have the
benefit of relying on the aerodynamic
technology development initiated
through EPA’s voluntary SmartWay
program. The Panel was aware that EPA
was planning to propose a simplified
compliance program for all
manufacturers, in which aerodynamic
device manufacturers have the
opportunity to test and certify their
devices with EPA as technologies that
can be used by trailer manufacturers in
their trailer certification. This preapproved technology strategy was
intended to provide all trailer
manufactures a means of complying
with the standards without the burden
of testing. In the event that this strategy
is limited to the early years of the trailer
program for all manufactures, the Panel
recommended that small manufacturers
continue to be given the option to use
pre-approved devices in lieu of testing.
In the event that small trailer
manufacturers adopt pre-approved
aerodynamic technologies and the
appropriate tire technologies for
compliance, the Panel recommended an
alternative compliance pathway in
which small business trailer
manufacturers could simply report to
EPA that all of their trailers include
approved technologies in lieu of
collecting all of the required inputs for
the GEM vehicle simulation.
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(iv) Non-Highway Trailer Manufacturers
The Panel recommended excluding
all trailers that spend a significant
amount of time in off-road applications.
These trailers may not spend much time
at highway speeds and aerodynamic
devices may interfere with the vehicle’s
intended purpose. Additionally, tires
with lower rolling resistance may not
provide the type of traction needed in
off-road applications.
(v) Compliance Provisions for All Small
Trailer Manufacturers
Due to the potential for reducing a
small business’s competitiveness
compared to the larger manufacturers,
as well as the ABT record-keeping
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burden, the Panel recommended that
EPA consider small business
flexibilities to allow small entities to opt
out of ABT without placing themselves
at a competitive disadvantage to larger
firms that adopt ABT, such as a low
volume exemption or requiring only
LRR where appropriate. EPA was asked
to consider flexibilities for small
businesses that would ease and
incentivize their participation in ABT,
such as streamlined the tracking
requirements for small businesses. In
addition, the Panel recommended that
EPA request comment on the feasibility
and consequences of ABT for the trailer
program and additional flexibilities that
will promote small business
participation.
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(vi) Lead Time Provisions for All Small
Trailer Manufacturers
For all trailer types that will be
included in the proposal, the Panel
recommended a 1-year delay in
implementation for small trailer
manufacturers at the start of the
proposed rulemaking to allow them
additional lead time to make the proper
staffing adjustments and process
changes and possibly add new
infrastructure to meet these
requirements. In the event that EPA is
unable to provide pre-approved
technologies for manufacturers to
choose for compliance, the Panel
recommended that EPA provide small
business trailer manufacturers an
additional 1-year delay for each
subsequent increase in stringency. This
additional lead time will allow these
small businesses to research and market
the technologies required by the new
standards.
(vii) Small Business Alternative Fuel
Engine Converters
To reduce the compliance burden of
small business engine converters who
convert engines in previously-certified
complete vehicles, the Panel
recommended allowing engine
compliance to be sufficient for
certification. This would mean the
converted vehicle would not need to be
recertified as a vehicle. This flexibility
would eliminate the need for these
small manufacturers to gather all of the
additional component-level information
in addition to the engine CO2
performance necessary to properly
certify a vehicle with GEM (e.g.,
transmission data, aerodynamic
performance, tire rolling resistance,
etc.). In addition, the Panel
recommended that small engine
converters be able to submit an
engineering analysis, in lieu of
measurement, to show that their
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converted engines do not increase N2O
emissions. Many of the small engine
converters are converting SI-engines,
and the catalysts in these engines are
not expected to substantially impact
N2O production. Small engine
converters that convert CI-engines could
likely certify by ensuring that their
controls require changes to the SCR
dosing strategies.
The Panel did not recommend
separate standards for small business
natural gas engine manufacturers. The
Panel believes this would discourage
entrance for small manufactures into
this emerging market by adding
unnecessary costs to a technology that
has the potential to reduce CO2 tailpipe
emissions. In addition, the Panel noted
that additional leakage requirements
beyond a sealed crankcase for small
business natural gas-fueled CI engines
and requirements to follow industry
standards for leakage could be waived
for small businesses with minimal
impact on overall GHG emissions.
Finally, the Panel recommended that
small engine converters receive a oneyear delay in implementation for each
increase in stringency throughout the
proposed rules. This flexibility will
provide small converters additional lead
time to obtain the necessary equipment
and perform calibration testing if
needed.
(viii) Emergency Vehicle Chassis
Manufacturers
Fire trucks, and many other
emergency vehicles, are built for high
level of performance and reliability in
severe-duty applications. Some of the
CO2-reducing technologies listed in the
materials could compromise the fire
truck’s ability to perform its duties and
many of the other technologies simply
provide no benefit in real-world
emergency applications. The Panel
recommended proposing less stringent
standards for emergency vehicle chassis
manufactured by small businesses. The
Panel suggested that feasible standards
could include adoption of LRR tires at
the baseline Phase 2 level and
installation of a Phase 2-compliant
engine. In addition, the Panel
recommended a simplified certification
approach for small manufacturers who
make chassis for emergency vehicles
that reduces the number of inputs these
manufacturers must obtain for GEM.
(ix) Off-Road Vocational Vehicle Chassis
Manufacturers
EPA is planning to propose to
continue the exemptions in Phase 1 for
off-road and low-speed vocational
vehicles (see generally 76 FR 57175).
These provisions currently apply for
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vehicles that are defined as ‘‘motor
vehicles’’ per 40 CFR 85.1703, but may
conduct most of their operations offroad. Vehicles qualifying under these
provisions must comply with the
applicable engine standard, but need
not comply with a vehicle-level GHG
standard. The Panel concluded this
exemption is sufficient to cover the
small business chassis manufacturers
who design chassis for off-road
vocational vehicles.
(x) Custom Chassis Manufacturers
The Panel concluded that chassis
designed for specialty operations often
have limited ability to adopt CO2- and
fuel consumption-reducing technologies
due to their unique use patterns. In
addition, the manufacturers of these
chassis have very small annual sales
volumes. The Panel recommended that
EPA propose a low volume exemption
for these custom chassis manufacturers.
The Panel did not receive sufficient
information to recommend a specific
sales volume, but recommended that
EPA request comment on how to design
a small business exemption by means of
a volume exemption, and an appropriate
annual sales volume threshold.
(xi) Glider Manufacturers
The Panel was aware that EPA would
like to reduce the use of glider kits,
which have higher emissions of criteria
pollutants like NOX than current
engines, and which could have higher
GHG emissions than Phase 2 engines.
However, the Panel estimates that the
number of vehicles produced by the
small businesses who manufacturer
glider kits is too small to have a
substantial impact on the total heavyduty inventory and recommended that
existing small businesses be allowed to
continue assembling glider vehicles
without having to comply with the GHG
requirements. The Panel recommended
that EPA establish an allowance for
existing small business glider
manufacturers to produce some number
of glider kits for legitimate purposes,
such as for newer vehicles badly
damaged in crashes. The Panel
recommended that any other limitations
on small business glider production be
flexible enough to allow sales levels as
high as the peak levels in the 2010–2012
timeframe.
(7) Summary of Projected Impact on
Small Businesses
EPA has chosen to propose the
Panel’s recommended regulatory
flexibility provisions for small business
alternative fuel converters and
vocational vehicle chassis
manufacturers and we believe that all of
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the small businesses in these industries
will be impacted by less than one
percent of their annual sales. EPA is
also proposing many of the Panel’s
recommendations for small business
trailer manufacturers, including seeking
comment on the possibility of a small
volume exemption. A majority of the
small trailer manufacturers produce
non-box trailers, and are not required to
adopt aerodynamic devices in this
proposal. Additionally, many of the
smallest trailer manufacturers produce
specialty trailers that are candidates for
exemption under the proposed offhighway or heavy-haul provisions
described in Section IVC.(5). At this
time, EPA believes the additional
flexibilities offered for small business
trailer manufacturers will reduce their
burden below three percent of their
annual sales. A more detailed
description of the analysis to quantify
the impact on small businesses in each
affected industry sector is included in
the IRFA as presented in Chapter 12 of
the draft RIA for this rulemaking. EPA
invites comment on all aspects of the
proposal and its impacts on small
entities.
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E. Unfunded Mandates Reform Act
This action contains a federal
mandate under UMRA, 2 U.S.C. 1531–
1538, that may result in expenditures of
$100 million or more for state, local and
tribal governments, in the aggregate, or
the private sector in any one year.
Accordingly, the agencies have prepared
a statement required under section 202
of UMRA. The statement is included in
the docket for this action and briefly
summarized here.
The agencies have prepared a
statement of the cost-benefit analysis as
required by Section 202 of the UMRA;
this discussion can be found in this
preamble, and in the draft RIA. The
agencies believe that the proposal
represents the least costly, most costeffective approach to achieve the
statutory requirements of the rules.
Section IX explains why the agencies
believe that the fuel savings that would
result from this proposal would lead to
lower prices economy wide, improving
U.S. international competitiveness. The
costs and benefits associated with the
proposal are discussed in more detail
above in Section IX and in the Draft
Regulatory Impact Analysis, as required
by the UMRA.
This action is not subject to the
requirements of Section 203 of UMRA
because it contains no regulatory
requirements that might significantly or
uniquely affect small governments.
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F. Executive Order 13132: Federalism
This action does not have federalism
implications. It will not have substantial
direct effects on the states, on the
relationship between the national
government and the states, or on the
distribution of power and
responsibilities among the various
levels of government.
In the spirit of Executive Order 13132,
and consistent with EPA policy to
promote communications between EPA
and State and local governments, EPA
specifically solicits comment on this
proposed rules from State and local
officials.
NHTSA notes that EPCA contains a
provision (49 U.S.C. 32919(a)) that
expressly preempts any State or local
government from adopting or enforcing
a law or regulation related to fuel
economy standards or average fuel
economy standards for automobiles
covered by an average fuel economy
standard under 49 U.S.C. Chapter 329.
However, commercial medium- and
heavy-duty on-highway vehicles and
work trucks are not ‘‘automobiles,’’ as
defined in 49 U.S.C. 32901(a)(3). In
Phase 1 NHTSA concluded that EPCA’s
express preemption provision would
not reach the fuel efficiency standards
to be established in this rulemaking.
NHTSA is reiterating that conclusion
here for the proposed Phase 2 standards.
NHTSA also considered the issue of
implied or conflict preemption. The
possibility of such preemption is
dependent upon there being an actual
conflict between a standard established
by NHTSA in this rulemaking and a
State or local law or regulation. See
Spriestma v. Mercury Marine, 537 U.S.
51, 64–65 (2002). At present, NHTSA
has no knowledge of any State or local
law or regulation that would actually
conflict with one of the fuel efficiency
standards to be established in this
rulemaking.
NHTSA seeks public comment on this
issue.
G. Executive Order 13175: Consultation
and Coordination With Indian Tribal
Governments
This action does not have tribal
implications as specified in Executive
Order 13175. This proposal will be
implemented at the Federal level and
impose compliance costs only on
vehicle and engine manufacturers.
Tribal governments would be affected
only to the extent they purchase and use
regulated vehicles. Thus, Executive
Order 13175 does not apply to this
action.
The agencies specifically solicit
comment on this proposal from Tribal
officials.
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H. Executive Order 13045: Protection of
Children From Environmental Health
Risks and Safety Risks
This action is subject to Executive
Order 13045 because it is an
economically significant regulatory
action as defined by Executive Order
12866, and the agencies believe that the
environmental health or safety risk
addressed by this action may have a
disproportionate effect on children.
Accordingly, we have evaluated the
environmental health or safety effects of
these risks on children. The results of
this evaluation are discussed below.
A synthesis of the science and
research regarding how climate change
may affect children and other
vulnerable subpopulations is contained
in the Technical Support Document for
Endangerment or Cause or Contribute
Findings for Greenhouse Gases under
Section 202(a) of the Clean Air Act,
which can be found in the public docket
for this proposal. In making those
findings, EPA Administrator placed
weight on the fact that certain groups,
including children, are particularly
vulnerable to climate-related health
effects. In those findings, EPA
Administrator also determined that the
health effects of climate change linked
to observed and projected elevated
concentrations of GHGs include the
increased likelihood of more frequent
and intense heat waves, increases in
ozone concentrations over broad areas
of the country, an increase of the
severity of extreme weather events such
as hurricanes and floods, and increasing
severity of coastal storms due to rising
sea levels. These effects can all increase
mortality and morbidity, especially in
vulnerable populations such as
children, the elderly, and the poor. In
addition, the occurrence of wildfires in
North America have increased and are
likely to intensify in a warmer future.
PM emissions from these wildfires can
contribute to acute and chronic illnesses
of the respiratory system, including
pneumonia, upper respiratory diseases,
asthma, and chronic obstructive
pulmonary disease, especially in
children.
The agencies have estimated
reductions in projected global mean
surface temperature and sea level rise as
a result of reductions in GHG emissions
associated with the standards finalized
in this action (Section VII and NHTSA’s
DEIS). Due to their vulnerability,
children may receive disproportionate
benefits from these reductions in
temperature and the subsequent
reduction of increased ozone and
severity of weather events.
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As discussed in Section VIII.D.2,
based on the magnitude of the non-GHG
co-pollutant emissions changes
predicted to result from the proposed
standards, the agencies expect that there
will be improvements in ambient air
quality, pending a more comprehensive
analysis for the final rulemaking. Due to
their vulnerability, children may receive
disproportionate benefits from these
reductions, as well.
Children are also more susceptible
than adults to many air pollutants
because of differences in physiology,
higher per body weight breathing rates
and consumption, rapid development of
the brain and bodily systems, and
behaviors that increase chances for
exposure. Even before birth, the
developing fetus may be exposed to air
pollutants through the mother that affect
development and permanently harm the
individual.
Infants and children breathe at much
higher rates per body weight than
adults, with infants under one year of
age having a breathing rate up to five
times that of adults.882 In addition,
children breathe through their mouths
more than adults and their nasal
passages are less effective at removing
pollutants, which leads to a higher
deposition fraction in their lungs.883
Certain motor vehicle emissions
present greater risks to children as well.
Early lifestages (e.g., children) are
thought to be more susceptible to tumor
development than adults when exposed
to carcinogenic chemicals that act
through a mutagenic mode of action.884
Exposure at a young age to these
carcinogens could lead to a higher risk
of developing cancer later in life.
The adverse effects of individual air
pollutants may be more severe for
children, particularly the youngest age
groups, than adults. The Integrated
Science Assessments and Criteria
Documents for a number of pollutants
affected by these rules, including those
for NO2, SO2, PM, ozone and CO,
describe children as a group with
greater susceptibility. Section VIII.B.7
882 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. (2009).
Metabolically-derived ventilation rates: a revised
approach based upon oxygen consumption rates.
Washington, DC: Office of Research and
Development. EPA/600/R–06/129F. https://
cfpub.epa.gov/ncea/cfm/
recordisplay.cfm?deid=202543.
883 Foos, B.; Marty, M.; Schwartz, J.; Bennet, W.;
Moya, J.; Jarabek, A.M.; Salmon, A.G. (2008)
Focusing on children’s inhalation dosimetry and
health effects for risk assessment: An introduction.
J Toxicol Environ Health 71A: 149–165.
884 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. (2005).
Supplemental guidance for assessing susceptibility
from early-life exposure to carcinogens.
Washington, DC: Risk Assessment Forum. EPA/630/
R–03/003F. https://www.epa.gov/raf/publications/
pdfs/childrens_supplement_final.pdf.
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discusses a number of childhood health
outcomes associated with proximity to
roadways, including evidence for
exacerbation of asthma symptoms and
suggestive evidence for new onset
asthma. In general, these studies do not
identify the specific contaminants
associated with adverse effects, instead
addressing the near-roadway
environment as one containing
numerous exposures potentially
associated with adverse health effects.
There is substantial evidence that
people who live or attend school near
major roadways are more likely to be of
a minority race, Hispanic ethnicity, and/
or low SES. Within these highly
exposed groups, children’s exposure
and susceptibility to health effects is
greater than adults due to school-related
and seasonal activities, behavior, and
physiological factors.
Section VIII.D.2 describes the
expected ambient air quality changes for
non-GHG co-pollutants resulting from
the proposed standards, which
represent levels to which the general
population is exposed. Children are not
expected to experience greater ambient
concentrations of air pollutants than the
general population. However, because of
their greater susceptibility to air
pollution and their increased time spent
outdoors, it is likely that the proposed
standards would have particular
benefits for children’s health.
I. Executive Order 13211: Actions
Concerning Regulations That
Significantly Affect Energy Supply,
Distribution, or Use
This action is not a ‘‘significant
energy action’’ because it is not likely to
have a significant adverse effect on the
supply, distribution or use of energy. In
fact, this proposal has a positive effect
on energy supply and use. Because the
combination of the proposed fuel
economy standards and the proposed
GHG emission standards would result in
significant fuel savings, this proposal
encourages more efficient use of fuels.
Therefore, we have concluded that this
proposal is not likely to have any
adverse energy effects. Our energy
effects analysis is described above in
Section IX.
J. National Technology Transfer and
Advancement Act and 1 CFR Part 51
This action involves technical
standards.
The agencies propose to use the
following voluntary consensus
standards from SAE International:
• SAE J1263 (March 2010) and SAE
J2263 (December 2008) are voluntary
consensus standards that together
establish a test protocol to determine
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road-load coefficients for properly
testing vehicles on a chassis
dynamometer to simulate in-use
operating conditions. Heavy-duty
vehicle testing already relies on these
reference standards under 40 CFR part
1066.
• SAE J2343 (July 2008). This
voluntary consensus standard
establishes a minimum hold time for
LNG-fueled vehicles following a
refueling event before the tank vents to
relieve pressure. This is described
further in Section XIII.A.3.
We are also aware that updated
standards are pending for three SAE
standards that are already incorporated
by reference in the regulations—SAE
J2263, SAE J1526, and SAE J2071. We
will consider referencing these updated
standards if they are adopted before
completion of the final rule. All SAE
documents are available from the
publisher’s Web site at www.sae.org.
We are proposing to adopt updated
versions of two ASTM standards that
already apply under 40 CFR part 1036.
This applies for ASTM D240–14 and
ASTM D4809–13, both of which specify
test methods for determining the heat of
combustion of liquid hydrocarbon fuels.
This action also involves technical
standards for which there is no available
voluntary consensus standard. First, the
agencies are proposing greenhouse gas
emission standards for heavy-duty
vehicles that depend on computer
modeling to predict and emission rate
based on various engine and vehicle
characteristics. Such a model is not
available from other sources, so EPA has
developed the Greenhouse Gas Emission
Model as a simulation tool for
demonstrating compliance with
emission standards. See Section II for a
detailed description of the model. A
working version of this software is
available for download at https://
www.epa.gov/otaq/climate/gem.htm.
Second, we need to define a
benchmark gear oil for establishing a
reference point for establishing
improvements in axle efficiency. There
is no voluntary consensus standard for
this purpose. As described in Section
II.C.1.c, we are instead proposing to
identify the technical specifications for
a commonly used commercial product
from BASF Corporation. These technical
specifications have been placed in the
docket for this rulemaking.
Third, 40 CFR part 1037 includes
several test procedures involving
calculation with numerous physical
quantities. We are incorporating by
reference NIST Special Publication 811
to allow for standardization and
consistency of units and nomenclature.
This standard, which already applies for
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40 CFR parts 1065 and 1066, is
published by the National Institute of
Standards and Technology (Department
of Commerce) and is available at no
charge at www.nist.gov.
Fourth, the amendments for marine
diesel engines involve technical
standards related to the requirements
that apply internationally. There are no
voluntary consensus documents that
address these technical standards. In
earlier rulemakings, EPA has adopted an
incorporation by reference for MARPOL
Annex VI and the NOX Technical code
in 40 CFR parts 1042 and 1043. The
International Maritime Organization
adopted changes to these documents in
2013 and 2014, which need to be
reflected in 40 CFR parts 1042 and 1043.
EPA recently adopted the updated
reference documents in 40 CFR part
1043. As noted in Section XIV.H.4, this
proposal includes the remaining step of
incorporating the updated IMO
documents by reference in 40 CFR part
1042. All these documents are available
at www.imo.org.
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K. Executive Order 12898: Federal
Actions To Address Environmental
Justice in Minority Populations and
Low-Income Populations
The agencies believe the human
health or environmental risk addressed
by this action will not have potential
disproportionately high and adverse
human health or environmental effects
on minority, low-income or indigenous
populations. The results of this
evaluation are discussed below.
With respect to GHG emissions, the
agencies have determined that these
proposed rules would not have
disproportionately high and adverse
human health or environmental effects
on minority, low-income or indigenous
populations because they increase the
level of environmental protection for all
affected populations without having any
disproportionately high and adverse
human health or environmental effects
on any population, including any
minority, low-income or indigenous
population. The reductions in CO2 and
other GHGs associated with the
standards would affect climate change
projections, and the agencies have
estimated reductions in projected global
mean surface temperatures (Section VII).
Within communities experiencing
adverse impacts related to climate
change, certain parts of the population
may be especially vulnerable; these
include the poor, the elderly, those
already in poor health, the disabled,
those living alone, and/or indigenous
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populations dependent on one or a few
resources.885
For non-GHG co-pollutants such as
ozone, PM2.5, and toxics, the agencies
have concluded that it is not practicable
to determine whether there would be
disproportionately high and adverse
human health or environmental effects
on minority, low income and/or
indigenous populations from these
rules. As discussed in Section VIII.D.2,
however, based on the magnitude of the
non-GHG co-pollutant emissions
changes predicted to result from the
proposed standards, EPA and NHTSA
expect that there will be improvements
in ambient air quality that would likely
help in mitigating the disparity in racial,
ethnic, and economically-based
exposures, pending a more
comprehensive analysis for the final
rulemaking.
L. Endangered Species Act
Section 7(a)(2) of the ESA requires
federal agencies, in consultation with
one or both of the Services (depending
on the species at issue), to ensure that
actions they authorize, fund, or carry
out are not likely to jeopardize the
continued existence of federally listed
endangered or threatened species or
result in the destruction or adverse
modification of designated critical
habitat of such species. 16 U.S.C.
1536(a)(2). Under relevant
implementing regulations, section
7(a)(2) applies only to actions where
there is discretionary federal
involvement or control. 50 CFR 402.03.
Further, under the regulations
consultation is required only for actions
that ‘‘may affect’’ listed species or
designated critical habitat. 50 CFR
402.14. Consultation is not required
where the action has no effect on such
species or habitat. Under this standard,
it is the federal agency taking the action
that evaluates the action and determines
whether consultation is required. See 51
FR 19926, 19949 (June 3, 1986). Effects
of an action include both the direct and
indirect effects that will be added to the
environmental baseline. 50 CFR 402.02.
Indirect effects are those that are caused
by the action, later in time, and that are
reasonably certain to occur. Id. To
trigger a consultation requirement, there
must thus be a causal connection
between the federal action, the effect in
question, and the listed species, and the
effect must be reasonably certain to
occur.
885 EPA 2009. Technical Support Document for
Endangerment and Cause of Contribute Findings for
Greenhouse Gases under Section 202(a) of the Clean
Air Act. Available at: https://www.epa.gov/
climatechange/Downloads/endangerment/
Endangerment_TSD.pdf.
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The agencies note that the projected
environmental effects of this rule are
positive. See proposed preamble section
VII.C and VIII. However, the fact that
the rule will have overall positive
effects on the environment does not
mean that the rule may affect any listed
species or designated critical habitat
within the meaning of ESA section
7(a)(2) or the implementing regulations
or require ESA consultation. We have
carefully considered various types of
potential effects in reaching the
conclusion that ESA consultation is not
required for this rule.
With respect to the projected GHG
emission reductions, we are mindful of
significant legal and technical analysis
undertaken by FWS and the U.S.
Department of the Interior in the context
of listing the polar bear as a threatened
species under the ESA. In that context,
in 2008, FWS and DOI expressed the
view that the best scientific data
available were insufficient to draw a
causal connection between GHG
emissions and effects on the species in
its habitat.886 The DOI Solicitor
concluded that where the effect at issue
is climate change, proposed actions
involving GHG emissions cannot pass
the ‘‘may affect’’ test of the section 7
regulations and thus are not subject to
ESA consultation.
The agencies have also previously
considered issues relating to GHG
emissions in connection with the
requirements of ESA section 7(a)(2).
Although the GHG emission reductions
projected for this proposal are large,
EPA evaluated comparable or larger
reductions in assessing this same issue
in the context of the light duty vehicle
GHG emission standards for model
years 2012–2016 and 2017–2025. There
the agency projected emission
reductions comparable to, or greater
than those projected here over the
lifetimes of the model years in
question 887 and, based on air quality
modeling of potential environmental
effects, concluded that ‘‘EPA knows of
no modeling tool which can link these
small, time-attenuated changes in global
metrics to particular effects on listed
species in particular areas. Extrapolating
from global metric to local effect with
886 See, e.g., 73 FR 28212, 28300 (May 15, 2008);
Memorandum from David Longly Bernhardt,
Solicitor, U.S. Department of the Interior re:
‘‘Guidance on the Applicability of the Endangered
Species Act’s Consultation Requirements to
Proposed Actions Involving the Emission of
Greenhouse Gases’’ (Oct. 3, 2008).
887 See 75 FR at 25347 Table I.C 2–4 (May 7,
2010); 77 FR at 62894 Table III–68 (Oct. 15, 2012);
compare with Table VII–41 to the preamble to the
proposed rule here. Projected emission reductions
of criteria pollutants and air toxics are also on the
same order as the two light duty vehicle rules.
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such small numbers, and accounting for
further links in a causative chain,
remain beyond current modeling
capabilities.’’ EPA, Light Duty Vehicle
Greenhouse Gas Standards and
Corporate Average Fuel Economy
Standards, Response to Comment
Document for Joint Rulemaking at 4–102
(Docket EPA–OAR–HQ–2009–4782).
EPA reached this conclusion after
evaluating issues relating to potential
improvements relevant to both
temperature and oceanographic pH
outputs. EPA’s ultimate finding was that
‘‘any potential for a specific impact on
listed species in their habitats
associated with these very small
changes in average global temperature
and ocean pH is too remote to trigger the
threshold for ESA section 7(a)(2).’’Id.
EPA believes that the same conclusion
would apply to the present proposed
rule (should it be adopted), given that
the projected CO2 emission reductions
are comparable to or less than those
projected for either of the light duty
vehicle rules. See section VII.D.2 and
Table VII–41 to the preamble to the
proposed rule; See also, e.g., Ground
Zero Center for Non-Violent Action v.
U.S. Dept. of Navy, 383 F. 3d 1082,
1091–92 (9th Cir. 2004) (where the
likelihood of jeopardy to a species from
a federal action is extremely remote,
ESA does not require consultation).
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XVI. EPA and NHTSA Statutory
Authorities
As described below, the proposed
regulations are authorized separately for
EPA and NHTSA under the agencies’
respective statutory authorities. See
Section I for a discussion of these
authorities.
A. EPA
Statutory authority for the vehicle
controls proposed today is found in
CAA section 202(a) (which authorizes
standards for emissions of pollutants
from new motor vehicles that emissions
cause or contribute to air pollution
which may reasonably be anticipated to
endanger public health or welfare), and
CAA sections 202(d), 203–209, 216, and
301 (42 U.S.C. 7521(a), 7521(d), 7522–
7543, 7550, and 7601).
Pursuant to 42 U.S.C. 4365, EPA must
make certain proposed rules available to
the Science Advisory Board (SAB) for
review. EPA may also voluntarily
choose to make other rules available to
the SAB. EPA notified the SAB of its
plans for this rulemaking and on June
11, 2014, the chartered SAB discussed
the recommendations of its work group
on the planned action and agreed that
no further SAB consideration of the
supporting science was merited.
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B. NHTSA
Statutory authority for the fuel
consumption standards proposed today
is found in section 103 of the Energy
Independence and Security Act of 2007,
49 U.S.C. 32902(k). EISA authorizes a
fuel efficiency improvement program,
designed to achieve the maximum
feasible improvement to be created for
commercial medium- and heavy-duty
on-highway vehicles and work trucks, to
implement appropriate test methods,
measurement metrics, fuel economy
standards, and compliance and
enforcement protocols that are
appropriate, cost-effective and
technologically feasible. To the extent
motor vehicle safety is implicated,
NHTSA’s authority to regulate it is also
derived from the National Traffic and
Motor Vehicle Safety Act, 49 U.S.C.
30101 et seq.
List of Subjects
40 CFR Part 9
Reporting and recordkeeping
requirements.
40 CFR Part 22
Administrative practice and
procedure, Air pollution control,
Hazardous substances, Hazardous
waste, Penalties, Pesticides and pests,
Poison prevention, Water pollution
control.
40 CFR Part 85
Confidential business information,
Imports, Labeling, Motor vehicle
pollution, Reporting and recordkeeping
requirements, Research, Warranties.
40 CFR Part 86
Administrative practice and
procedure, Confidential business
information, Incorporation by reference,
Labeling, Motor vehicle pollution,
Reporting and recordkeeping
requirements.
40 CFR Part 600
Administrative practice and
procedure, Electric power, Fuel
economy, Incorporation by reference,
Labeling, Reporting and recordkeeping
requirements.
40 CFR Part 1033
Administrative practice and
procedure, Air pollution control.
40 CFR Parts 1036 and 1037
Environmental protection,
Administrative practice and procedure,
Air pollution control, confidential
business information, Incorporation by
reference, Labeling, Motor vehicle
pollution, Reporting and recordkeeping
requirements, Warranties.
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40 CFR Part 1039
Environmental protection,
Administrative practice and procedure,
Air pollution control, Confidential
business information, Imports, Labeling,
Penalties, Reporting and recordkeeping
requirements, Warranties.
40 CFR Part 1042
Environmental protection,
Administrative practice and procedure,
Air pollution control, Confidential
business information, Imports, Labeling,
Penalties, Reporting and recordkeeping
requirements, Vessels, Warranties.
40 CFR Part 1043
Environmental protection,
Administrative practice and procedure,
Air pollution control, Imports,
Incorporation by reference, Vessels,
Reporting and recordkeeping
requirements.
40 CFR Parts 1065 and 1066
Administrative practice and
procedure, Air pollution control,
Incorporation by reference, Reporting
and recordkeeping requirements,
Research.
40 CFR Part 1068
Administrative practice and
procedure, Confidential business
information, Imports, Incorporation by
reference, Motor vehicle pollution,
Penalties, Reporting and recordkeeping
requirements, Warranties.
49 CFR Part 512
Administrative practice and
procedure, Confidential business
information, Freedom of information,
Motor vehicle safety, Reporting and
recordkeeping requirements.
49 CFR Parts 523, 534, 535, and 537
Fuel economy, Reporting and
recordkeeping requirements.
49 CFR Part 538
Administrative practice and
procedure, Fuel economy, Motor
vehicles, Reporting and recordkeeping
requirements.
For the reasons set out in the
preamble, title 40, chapter I of the Code
of Federal Regulations is proposed to be
amended as set forth below.
PART 9—OMB Approvals Under the
Paperwork Reduction Act
1. The authority citation for part 9
continues to read as follows:
■
Authority: 7 U.S.C. 135 et seq., 136–136y;
15 U.S.C. 2001, 2003, 2005, 2006, 2601–2671;
21 U.S.C. 331j, 346a, 31 U.S.C. 9701; 33
U.S.C. 1251 et seq., 1311, 1313d, 1314, 1318,
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1321, 1326, 1330, 1342, 1344, 1345 (d) and
(e), 1361; E.O. 11735, 38 FR 21243, 3 CFR,
1971–1975 Comp. p. 973; 42 U.S.C. 241,
242b, 243, 246, 300f, 300g, 300g–1, 300g–2,
300g–3, 300g–4, 300g–5, 300g–6, 300j–1,
300j–2, 300j–3, 300j–4, 300j–9, 1857 et seq.,
6901–6992k, 7401–7671q, 7542, 9601–9657,
11023, 11048.
2. In § 9.1 the table is amended by:
a. Adding in numerical order by CFR
designation a new undesignated center
heading ‘‘Control of Emissions from
■
■
New and In-Use Heavy-Duty Highway
Engines’’ and its entry in numerical
order for ‘‘1036.825’’.;
■ b. Adding in numerical order by CFR
designation a new undesignated center
heading ‘‘Control of Emissions from
New Heavy-Duty Motor Vehicles’’ and
its entry in numerical order for
‘‘1037.825’’.; and
■ c. Adding in numerical order by CFR
designation a new undesignated center
heading ‘‘Control of NOX SOX, and PM
Emissions from Marine Engines and
Vessels Subject to the Marpol Protocol’’
and its entryies in numerical order for
‘‘1043.40—through 1043.95’’.
The additions read as follows:
§ 9.1 OMB approvals under the Paperwork
Reduction Act.
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*
40 CFR citation
*
OMB Control No.
*
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*
Control of Emissions From New and In-Use Heavy-Duty Highway Engines
1036.825 ..............................................................................................................................................................................
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2060–0678
*
Control of Emissions From New Heavy-Duty Motor Vehicles
1037.825 ..............................................................................................................................................................................
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2060–0678
*
Control of NOX SOX, and PM Emissions From Marine Engines and Vessels Subject to the Marpol Protocol
1043.40–1043.95 .................................................................................................................................................................
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PART 22—CONSOLIDATED RULES OF
PRACTICE GOVERNING THE
ADMINISTRATIVE ASSESSMENT OF
CIVIL PENALTIES AND THE
REVOCATION/TERMINATION OR
SUSPENSION OF PERMITS
3. The authority citation for part 22
continues to read as follows:
■
Authority: 7 U.S.C. 136(l); 15 U.S.C. 2615;
33 U.S.C. 1319, 1342, 1361, 1415 and 1418;
42 U.S.C. 300g–3(g), 6912, 6925, 6928, 6991e
and 6992d; 42 U.S.C. 7413(d), 7524(c),
7545(d), 7547, 7601 and 7607(a), 9609, and
11045.
4. Section 22.1 is amended by revising
paragraph (a)(2) to read as follows:
■
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§ 22.1
Scope of this part.
(a) * * *
(2) The assessment of any
administrative civil penalty under
sections 113(d), 205(c), 211(d) and
213(d) of the Clean Air Act, as amended
(42 U.S.C. 7413(d), 7524(c), 7545(d) and
7547(d)), and a determination of
nonconforming engines, vehicles or
equipment under sections 207(c) and
213(d) of the Clean Air Act, as amended
(42 U.S.C. 7541(c) and 7547(d));
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■ 5. Section 22.34 is revised to read as
follows:
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§ 22.34 Supplemental rules governing the
administrative assessment of civil penalties
under the Clean Air Act.
(a) Scope. This section shall apply, in
conjunction with §§ 22.1 through 22.32,
in administrative proceedings to assess
a civil penalty conducted under sections
113(d), 205(c), 211(d), and 213(d) of the
Clean Air Act, as amended (42 U.S.C.
7413(d), 7524(c), 7545(d), and 7547(d)),
and a determination of nonconforming
engines, vehicles or equipment under
sections 207(c) and 213(d) of the Clean
Air Act, as amended (42 U.S.C. 7541(c)
and 7547(d)). Where inconsistencies
exist between this section and §§ 22.1
through 22.32, this section shall apply.
(b) Issuance of notice. Prior to the
issuance of a final order assessing a civil
penalty or a final determination of
nonconforming engines, vehicles or
equipment, the person to whom the
order or determination is to be issued
shall be given written notice of the
proposed issuance of the order or
determination. Service of a complaint or
a consent agreement and final order
pursuant to § 22.13 satisfies these notice
requirements.
PART 85—CONTROL OF AIR
POLLUTION FROM MOBILE SOURCES
6. The authority citation for part 85
continues to read as follows:
■
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Authority: 42 U.S.C. 7401–7671q.
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Subpart F—Exemption of Clean
Alternative Fuel Conversions From
Tampering Prohibition
7. Section 85.525 is revised to read as
follows:
■
§ 85.525
Applicable standards.
To qualify for an exemption from the
tampering prohibition, vehicles/engines
that have been converted to operate on
a different fuel must meet emission
standards and related requirements as
described in this section. The modified
vehicle/engine must meet the
requirements that applied for the OEM
vehicle/engine, or the most stringent
OEM vehicle/engine standards in any
allowable grouping. Fleet average
standards do not apply unless clean
alternative fuel conversions are
specifically listed as subject to the
standards.
(a) If the vehicle/engine was certified
with a Family Emission Limit for NOX,
NOX + HC, NOX + NMOG, or particulate
matter, as noted on the vehicle/engine
emission control information label, the
modified vehicle/engine may not exceed
this Family Emission Limit.
(b) Compliance with greenhouse gas
emission standards is demonstrated as
follows:
(1) Subject to the following exceptions
and special provisions, compliance with
light-duty vehicle greenhouse gas
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emission standards is demonstrated by
complying with the N2O and CH4
standards and provisions set forth in 40
CFR 86.1818–12(f)(1) and the in-use CO2
exhaust emission standard set forth in
40 CFR 86.1818–12(d) as determined by
the OEM for the subconfiguration that is
identical to the fuel conversion
emission data vehicle (EDV):
(i) If the OEM complied with the
light-duty greenhouse gas standards
using the fleet averaging option for N2O
and CH4, as allowed under 40 CFR
86.1818–12(f)(2), the calculations of the
carbon-related exhaust emissions
require the input of grams/mile values
for N2O and CH4, and you are not
required to demonstrate compliance
with the standalone CH4 and N2O
standards.
(ii) If the OEM complied with
alternate standards for N2O and/or CH4,
as allowed under 40 CFR 86.1818–
12(f)(3), you may demonstrate
compliance with the same alternate
standards.
(iii) If the OEM complied with the
nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane (CH4)
standards and provisions set forth in 40
CFR 86.1818–12(f)(1) or (f)(3), and the
fuel conversion CO2 measured value is
lower than the in-use CO2 exhaust
emission standard, you also have the
option to convert the difference between
the in-use CO2 exhaust emission
standard and the fuel conversion CO2
measured value into GHG equivalents of
CH4 and/or N2O, using 298 g CO2 to
represent 1 g N2O and 25 g CO2 to
represent 1 g CH4. You may then
subtract the applicable converted values
from the fuel conversion measured
values of CH4 and/or N2O to
demonstrate compliance with the CH4
and/or N2O standards.
(iv) Optionally, compliance with
greenhouse gas emission requirements
may be demonstrated by comparing
emissions from the vehicle prior to the
fuel conversion to the emissions after
the fuel conversion. This comparison
must be based on FTP test results from
the emission data vehicle (EDV)
representing the pre-conversion test
group. The sum of CO2, CH4, and N2O
shall be calculated for pre- and postconversion FTP test results, where CH4
and N2O are weighted by their global
warming potentials of 25 and 298,
respectively. The post-conversion sum
of these emissions must be lower than
the pre-conversion conversion
greenhouse gas emission results. CO2
emissions are calculated as specified in
40 CFR 600.113–12. If statements of
compliance are applicable and accepted
in lieu of measuring N2O, as permitted
by EPA regulation, the comparison of
the greenhouse gas results also need not
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measure or include N2O in the before
and after emission comparisons.
(2) Compliance with heavy-duty
engine greenhouse gas emission
standards is demonstrated by complying
with the CO2, N2O, and CH4 standards
(or FELs, as applicable) and provisions
set forth in 40 CFR 1036.108 for the
engine family that is represented by the
fuel conversion emission data engine
(EDE). The following additional
provisions apply:
(i) If the fuel conversion CO2
measured value is lower than the CO2
standard (or FEL, as applicable), you
have the option to convert the difference
between the CO2 standard (or FEL, as
applicable) and the fuel conversion CO2
measured value into GHG equivalents of
CH4 and/or N2O, using 298 g/hp-hr CO2
to represent 1 g/hp-hr N2O and 25 g/hphr CO2 to represent 1 g/hp-hr CH4. You
may then subtract the applicable
converted values from the fuel
conversion measured values of CH4 and/
or N2O to demonstrate compliance with
the CH4 and/or N2O standards (or FEL,
as applicable).
(ii) Small volume conversion
manufacturers may demonstrate
compliance with N2O standards based
on an engineering analysis.
(iii) For conversions of engines
installed in vocational vehicles subject
to Phase 2 standards under 40 CFR
1037.105 or in tractors subject to Phase
2 standards under 40 CFR 1037.106,
conversion manufacturers may omit a
demonstration related to the vehiclebased standards, as long as they have a
reasonable technical basis for believing
that the modified vehicle continues to
meet those standards.
(3) Subject to the following exceptions
and special provisions, compliance with
greenhouse gas emission standards for
heavy-duty vehicles subject to 40 CFR
1037.104 is demonstrated by complying
with the N2O and CH4 standards and
provisions set forth in 40 CFR 1037.104
and the in-use CO2 exhaust emission
standard set forth in 40 CFR 1037.104(b)
as determined by the OEM for the
subconfiguration that is identical to the
fuel conversion emission data vehicle
(EDV):
(i) If the OEM complied with alternate
standards for N2O and/or CH4, as
allowed under 40 CFR 1037.104(c) you
may demonstrate compliance with the
same alternate standards.
(ii) If you are unable to meet either the
N2O or CH4 standards and your fuel
conversion CO2 measured value is lower
than the in-use CO2 exhaust emission
standard, you may also convert the
difference between the in-use CO2
exhaust emission standard and the fuel
conversion CO2 measured value into
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40551
GHG equivalents of CH4 and/or N2O,
using 298 g CO2 to represent 1 g N2O,
and 25 g CO2 to represent 1 g CH4. You
may then subtract the applicable
converted values from the fuel
conversion measured values of CH4 and/
or N2O to demonstrate compliance with
the CH4 and/or N2O standards.
(iii) You may alternatively comply
with the greenhouse gas emission
requirements by comparing emissions
from the vehicle before and after the
fuel conversion. This comparison must
be based on FTP test result from the
emission data vehicle (EDV)
representing the pre-conversion test
group. The sum of CO2, CH4, and N2O
shall be calculated for pre- and postconversion FTP test results, where CH4
and N2O are weighted by their global
warming potentials of 25 and 298,
respectively. The post-conversion sum
of these emissions must be lower than
the pre-conversion greenhouse gas
emission result. Calculate CO2
emissions as specified in 40 CFR
600.113. If we waive N2O measurement
requirements based on a statement of
compliance, disregard N2O for all
measurements and calculations under
this paragraph (b)(3)(iii).
(c) Conversion systems for engines
that would have qualified for chassis
certification at the time of OEM
certification may use those procedures,
even if the OEM did not. Conversion
manufacturers choosing this option
must designate test groups using the
appropriate criteria as described in this
subpart and meet all vehicle chassis
certification requirements set forth in 40
CFR part 86, subpart S.
Subpart O—Urban Bus Rebuild
Requirements
8. Section 85.1406 is amended by
revising paragraph (f)(2) to read as
follows:
■
§ 85.1406
Certification.
*
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(f) * * *
(2) If the equipment certifier disagrees
with such determination of
nonconformity and so advises the
Agency, the Administrator shall afford
the equipment certifier and other
interested persons an opportunity to
present their views and evidence in
support thereof at a public hearing
conducted in accordance with
procedures found in 40 CFR part 1068,
subpart G.
Subpart P—Importation of Motor
Vehicles And Motor Vehicle Engines
9. Section 85.1508 is amended by
revising paragraph (c) to read as follows:
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§ 85.1508 ‘‘In Use’’ inspections and recall
requirements.
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(c) A certificate holder will be notified
whenever the Administrator has
determined that a substantial number of
a class or category of the certificate
holder’s vehicles or engines, although
properly maintained and used, do not
conform to the regulations prescribed
under section 202 when in actual use
throughout their useful lives (as
determined under section 202(d)). After
such notification, the Recall Regulations
at 40 CFR part 1068, subpart G, shall
govern the certificate holder’s
responsibilities and references to a
manufacturer in the Recall Regulations
shall apply to the certificate holder.
■ 10. Section 85.1513 is amended by
revising paragraph (e)(4) to read as
follows:
§ 85.1513
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(e) * * *
(4) Hearings on suspensions and
revocations of certificates of conformity
or of eligibility to perform modification/
testing under § 85.1509 shall be held in
accordance with 40 CFR part 1068,
subpart G.
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Subpart R—Exclusion and Exemption
of Motor Vehicles and Motor Vehicle
Engines
General applicability.
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Definition of motor vehicle.
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(b) Note that, in applying the criterion
in paragraph (a)(2) of this section,
vehicles that are clearly intended for
operation on highways are motor
vehicles. Absence of a particular safety
feature is relevant only when absence of
that feature would prevent operation on
highways.
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(b) Any manufacturer that desires a
pre-certification exemption and is in the
business of importing, modifying or
testing uncertified vehicles for resale
under the provisions of 40 CFR 85.1501,
et seq., must send the request to the
Designated Compliance Officer as
specified in 40 CFR 1068.30. The
Designated Compliance Officer may
require such manufacturers to submit
information regarding the general nature
of the fleet activities, the number of
vehicles involved, and a demonstration
that adequate record-keeping
procedures for control purposes will be
employed.
§§ 85.1713 and 85.1714
[Removed]
14. Remove §§ 85.1713 and 85.1714.
Subpart S—Recall Regulations
15. Subpart S is revised to read as
follows:
■
Subpart S—Recall Regulations
§ 85.1801
Recall regulations.
Recall regulations apply for motor
vehicles and motor vehicle engines as
specified in 40 CFR part 1068, subpart
G.
Subpart T—Emission Defect Reporting
Requirements
PART 86—CONTROL OF EMISSIONS
FROM NEW AND IN-USE HIGHWAY
VEHICLES AND ENGINES
■
■
(a) * * *
(1) Beginning January 1, 2014, the
exemption provisions of 40 CFR part
1068, subpart C, apply instead of the
provisions of this subpart for heavyduty motor vehicle engines regulated
under 40 CFR part 86, subpart A, except
that the competition exemption of 40
CFR 1068.235 and the hardship
exemption provisions of 40 CFR
1068.245, 1068.250, and 1068.255 do
not apply for motor vehicle engines.
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■ 12. Section 85.1703 is amended by
adding paragraph (b) to read as follows:
*
Pre-certification exemption.
*
(1) A defect in design, materials, or
workmanship in a device, system, or
assembly described in the approved
Application for Certification that affects
any parameter or specification
enumerated in appendix VIII of this
part; or
(2) A defect in the design, materials,
or workmanship in one or more
emission-related parts, components,
systems, software or elements of design
which must function properly to ensure
continued compliance with emission
standards.
(c) Useful life has the meaning given
in section 202(d) of the Act (42 U.S.C.
7521(d)) and regulations promulgated
thereunder.
(d) Voluntary emissions recall means
a repair, adjustment, or modification
program voluntarily initiated and
conducted by a manufacturer to remedy
any emission-related defect for which
direct notification of vehicle or engine
owners has been provided, including
programs to remedy defects related to
emissions standards for CO2, CH4, N2O,
and/or carbon-related exhaust
emissions.
(e) Ultimate purchaser has the
meaning given in section 216 of the Act
(42 U.S.C. 7550).
(f) Manufacturer has the meaning
given in section 216 of the Act (42
U.S.C. 7550).
16. Section 85.1901 is revised to read
as follows:
11. Section 85.1701 is amended by
revising paragraph (a)(1) to read as
follows:
■
§ 85.1703
§ 85.1706
■
Prohibited acts; penalties.
*
§ 85.1701
13. Section 85.1706 is amended by
revising paragraph (b) to read as follows:
■
§ 85.1901
Applicability.
Authority: 42 U.S.C. 7401–7671q.
(a) The requirements of this subpart
shall be applicable to all 1972 and later
model year motor vehicles and motor
vehicle engines, except that the
provisions of 40 CFR 1068.501 apply
instead for heavy-duty motor vehicle
engines certified under 40 CFR part 86,
subpart A, and for heavy-duty motor
vehicles certified under 40 CFR part
1037 starting January 1, 2018.
(b) The requirement to report
emission-related defects affecting a
given class or category of vehicles or
engines shall remain applicable for five
years from the end of the model year in
which such vehicles or engines were
manufactured.
■ 17. Section 85.1902 is revised to read
as follows:
§ 85.1902
Definitions.
For the purposes of this subpart and
unless otherwise noted:
(a) Act means the Clean Air Act, 42
U.S.C. 7401–7671q, as amended.
(b) Emission-related defect means:
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18. The authority citation for part 86
continues to read as follows:
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Subpart A—General Provisions for
Heavy-Duty Engines and Heavy-Duty
Vehicles
19. Revise the heading of subpart A to
read as set forth above.
■
§ 86.001–35
[Removed]
20. Remove § 86.001–35.
21. Section 86.004–2 is amended by
revising the definition of ‘‘Emergency
vehicle’’ to read as follows:
■
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§ 86.004–2
Definitions.
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*
Emergency vehicle has the meaning
given in 40 CFR 1037.801.
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*
■ 22. Section 86.004–25 is amended by
revising paragraph (b)(4)(i) to read as
follows:
§ 86.004–25
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(b) * * *
(4) * * *
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(i) For diesel-cycle heavy-duty
engines, the adjustment, cleaning,
repair, or replacement of the following
items shall occur at 50,000 miles (or
1,500 hours) of use and at 50,000-mile
(or 1,500-hour) intervals thereafter:
(A) Exhaust gas recirculation system
related filters and coolers.
(B) Positive crankcase ventilation
valve.
(C) Fuel injector tips (cleaning only).
(D) DEF filters.
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■ 23. Section 86.004–28 is amended by
revising paragraph (i) introductory text
and adding paragraph (j) to read as
follows:
§ 86.004–28
standards.
Compliance with emission
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(i) This paragraph (i) describes how to
adjust emission results from model year
2020 and earlier heavy-duty engines
equipped with exhaust aftertreatment to
account for regeneration events. This
provision only applies for engines
equipped with emission controls that
are regenerated on an infrequent basis.
For the purpose of this paragraph (i), the
term ‘‘regeneration’’ means an event
during which emission levels change
while the aftertreatment performance is
being restored by design. Examples of
regenerations are increasing exhaust gas
temperature to remove sulfur from an
adsorber or increasing exhaust gas
temperature to oxidize PM in a trap. For
the purpose of this paragraph (i), the
term ‘‘infrequent’’ means having an
expected frequency of less than once per
transient test cycle. Calculation and use
of adjustment factors are described in
paragraphs (i)(1) through (5) of this
section. If your engine family includes
engines with one or more AECDs for
emergency vehicle applications
approved under paragraph (4) of the
definition of defeat device in § 86.004–
2, do not consider additional
regenerations resulting from those
AECDs when calculating emission
factors or frequencies under this
paragraph (i).
*
*
*
*
*
(j) For model year 2021 and later
engines using aftertreatment technology
with infrequent regeneration events that
may occur during testing, take one of
the following approaches to account for
the emission impact of regeneration:
(1) You may use the calculation
methodology described in 40 CFR
1065.680 to adjust measured emission
results. Do this by developing an
upward adjustment factor and a
downward adjustment factor for each
pollutant based on measured emission
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data and observed regeneration
frequency as follows:
(i) Adjustment factors should
generally apply to an entire engine
family, but you may develop separate
adjustment factors for different
configurations within an engine family.
Use the adjustment factors from this
section for all testing for the engine
family.
(ii) You may use carryover or carryacross data to establish adjustment
factors for an engine family as described
in § 86.001–24(f), consistent with good
engineering judgment.
(iii) Identify the value of F in each
application for the certification for
which it applies.
(2) You may ask us to approve an
alternate methodology to account for
regeneration events. We will generally
limit approval to cases where your
engines use aftertreatment technology
with extremely infrequent regeneration
and you are unable to apply the
provisions of this section.
(3) You may choose to make no
adjustments to measured emission
results if you determine that
regeneration does not significantly affect
emission levels for an engine family (or
configuration) or if it is not practical to
identify when regeneration occurs. If
you choose not to make adjustments
under paragraph (j)(1) or (2) of this
section, your engines must meet
emission standards for all testing,
without regard to regeneration.
§ 86.004–30—[Removed]
24. Remove § 86.004–30.
25. Section 86.007–11 is amended by
revising paragraphs (a)(1)(iii), (c), and
(g) to read as follows:
■
■
§ 86.007–11 Emission standards and
supplemental requirements for 2007 and
later model year diesel heavy-duty engines
and vehicles.
*
*
*
*
*
(a)(1) * * *
(iii) Carbon monoxide. 15.5 grams per
brake horsepower-hour (5.77 grams per
megajoule).
*
*
*
*
*
(c) No crankcase emissions shall be
discharged directly into the ambient
atmosphere from any new 2007 or later
model year diesel-cycle HDE, with the
following exception: Diesel-fueled HDEs
equipped with turbochargers, pumps,
blowers, or superchargers for air
induction may discharge crankcase
emissions to the ambient atmosphere if
the emissions are added to the exhaust
emissions (either physically or
mathematically) during all emission
testing. Manufacturers taking advantage
of this exception must manufacture the
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40553
engines so that all crankcase emission
can be routed into a dilution tunnel (or
other sampling system approved in
advance by the Administrator), and
must account for deterioration in
crankcase emissions when determining
exhaust deterioration factors. For the
purpose of this paragraph (c), crankcase
emissions that are routed to the exhaust
upstream of exhaust aftertreatment
during all operation are not considered
to be ‘‘discharged directly into the
ambient atmosphere.’’
*
*
*
*
*
(g) Model year 2018 and later engines
at or above 56 kW that will be installed
in specialty vehicles as allowed by 40
CFR 1037.605 may meet alternate
emission standards as follows:
(1) The engines must be of a
configuration that is identical to one
that is certified under 40 CFR part 1039.
(2) Except as specified in this
paragraph (g), engines certified under
this paragraph (g) must meet all the
requirements that apply under 40 CFR
part 1039 instead of the comparable
provisions in this subpart A. In your
annual production report, count these
engines separately and identify the
vehicle manufacturers that will be
installing them. Treat these engines as
part of the corresponding engine family
under 40 CFR part 1039 for compliance
purposes such as selective enforcement
audits, in-use testing, defect reporting,
and recall.
(3) The engines must be labeled as
described in § 86.095–35. Engines
certified under this paragraph (g) may
not have the label specified for nonroad
engines in 40 CFR part 1039.
(4) In a separate application for a
certificate of conformity, identify the
corresponding nonroad engine family,
describe the label required under this
paragraph (g), state that you meet
applicable diagnostic requirements
under 40 CFR part 1039, and identify
your projected U.S.-directed production
volume.
(5) No additional certification fee
applies for engines certified under this
paragraph (g).
(6) Engines certified under this
paragraph (g) may not generate or use
emission credits under this part or
under 40 CFR part 1039. The vehicles in
which these engines are installed may
generate or use emission credits as
described in 40 CFR part 1037.
*
*
*
*
*
§ 86.007–30
[Amended]
26. Section 86.007–30 is amended by
removing and reserving paragraph (d).
■
§ 86.007–35
■
[Removed]
27. Remove § 86.007–35.
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28. Section 86.008–10 is amended by:
a. Revising paragraph (a)(1)(iii);
b. Removing and reserving paragraph
(f); and
■ c. Revising paragraph (g).
The revisions read as follows:
the hearing procedures specified in 40
CFR part 1068, subpart G.
■ 30. Section 86.084–4 is revised to read
as follows:
§ 86.008–10 Emission standards for 2008
and later model year Otto-cycle heavy-duty
engines and vehicles.
(a) The model year of initial
applicability is indicated by the last two
digits of the 5-digit group. A section
remains in effect for subsequent model
years until it is superseded. The number
following the hyphen designates what
previous section is replaced by a future
regulation. For example, § 86.005–1
applies to model year 2005 and later
vehicles and engines until it is
superseded. Section 86.016–1 takes
effect with model year 2016 and
continues to apply until it is
superseded; § 86.005–1 no longer
applies starting with model year 2016,
except as specified by § 86.016–1.
(b) If the regulation references a
section that has been superseded or no
longer exists, this should be understood
as a reference to the same section for the
appropriate model year. For example, if
the regulation refers to § 86.001–30, it
should be taken as a reference to
§ 86.007–30 or any later version of that
section that applies for the appropriate
model year. However, this does not
apply if the reference to a superseded
section specifically states that the older
provision applies instead of any
updated provisions from the section in
effect for the current model year; this
occurs most often as part of the
transition to new emission standards.
(c) Except where indicated, the
language in this subpart applies to both
vehicles and engines. In many
instances, language referring to engines
is enclosed in parentheses and
immediately follows the language
discussing vehicles.
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■
■
■
(a)(1) * * *
(iii) Carbon monoxide. 14.4 grams per
brake horsepower-hour (5.36 grams per
megajoule).
*
*
*
*
*
(g) Model year 2018 and later engines
that will be installed in specialty
vehicles as allowed by 40 CFR 1037.605
may meet alternate emission standards
as follows:
(1) The engines must be of a
configuration that is identical to one
that is certified under 40 CFR part 1048
to the Blue Sky standards under 40 CFR
1048.140.
(2) Except as specified in this
paragraph (g), engines certified under
this paragraph (g) must meet all the
requirements that apply under 40 CFR
part 1048 instead of the comparable
provisions in this subpart A. In your
annual production report, count these
engines separately and identify the
vehicle manufacturers that will be
installing them. Treat these engines as
part of the corresponding engine family
under 40 CFR part 1048 for compliance
purposes such as production-line
testing, in-use testing, defect reporting,
and recall.
(3) The engines must be labeled as
described in § 86.095–35. Engines
certified under this paragraph (g) may
not have the label specified for nonroad
engines in 40 CFR part 1048.
(4) In a separate application for a
certificate of conformity, identify the
corresponding nonroad engine family,
describe the label required under this
paragraph (g), state that you meet
applicable diagnostic requirements
under 40 CFR part 1048, and identify
your projected U.S.-directed production
volume.
(5) No additional certification fee
applies for engines certified under this
paragraph (g).
(6) Engines certified under this
paragraph (g) may not generate or use
emission credits under this part. The
vehicles in which these engines are
installed may generate or use emission
credits as described in 40 CFR part
1037.
■ 29. Section 86.078–6 is revised to read
as follows:
§ 86.078–6
Hearings on certification.
If a manufacturer’s request for a
hearing is approved, EPA will follow
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§ 86.084–4 Section numbering;
construction.
§ 86.085–37
[Amended]
31. Section 86.085–37 is amended by
removing paragraph (d).
■
§ 86.094–30
[Removed]
32. Remove § 86.094–30.
33. Section 86.095–35 is amended by:
a. Revising paragraphs (a)
introductory text, (a)(3)(iii)(B),
(a)(3)(iii)(H), (I), (J), and (K);
■ b. Adding paragraph (c); and
■ c. Revising paragraph, (i).
The revisions and additions read as
follows:
■
■
■
§ 86.095–35
Labeling.
(a) The manufacturer of any motor
vehicle (or motor vehicle engine) subject
to the applicable emission standards
(and family emission limits, as
appropriate) of this subpart, shall, at the
time of manufacture, affix a permanent
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legible label, of the type and in the
manner described below, containing the
information hereinafter provided, to all
production models of such vehicles (or
engines) available for sale to the public
and covered by a Certificate of
Conformity under § 86.007–30(a).
*
*
*
*
*
(3) * * *
(iii) * * *
(B) The full corporate name and
trademark of the manufacturer; though
the label may identify another company
and use its trademark instead of the
manufacturer’s as long as the
manufacturer complies with the
branding provisions of 40 CFR 1068.45.
*
*
*
*
*
(H) The prominent statement: ‘‘This
engine conforms to U.S. EPA regulations
applicable to XXXX Model Year New
Heavy-Duty Engines.’’;
(I) If the manufacturer has an alternate
useful life period under the provisions
of § 86.094–21(f), the prominent
statement: ‘‘This engine has been
certified to meet U.S. EPA standards for
a useful-life period of XXX miles or
XXX hours of operation, whichever
occurs first. This engine’s actual life
may vary depending on its service
application.’’ The manufacturer may
alter this statement only to express the
assigned alternate useful life in terms
other than miles or hours (e.g., years, or
hours only);
(J) For diesel engines, the prominent
statement: ‘‘This engine has a primary
intended service application as a XXX
heavy-duty engine.’’ (The primary
intended service applications are light,
medium, and heavy, as defined in
§ 86.090–2.);
(K) For engines certified under the
alternative standards specified in
§ 86.007–11(g) or § 86.008–10(g), the
following statement: ‘‘This engine is
certified for only in specialty vehicles as
specified in [40 CFR 86.007–11 or 40
CFR 86.008–10]’’;
*
*
*
*
*
(c) Vehicles powered by model year
2007 through 2013 diesel-fueled engines
must include permanent, readily visible
labels on the dashboard (or instrument
panel) and near all fuel inlets that state
‘‘Use Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel Fuel
Only’’; or ‘‘Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel Fuel
Only’’.
*
*
*
*
*
(i) The Administrator may approve in
advance other label content and formats,
provided the alternative label contains
information consistent with this section.
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34. Section 86.402–78 is amended by
adding in alphabetical order a definition
for ‘‘Round’’ to paragraph (a) to read as
follows:
■
§ 86.402–78
Definitions.
(a) * * *
Round has the meaning given in 40
CFR 1065.1001, unless otherwise
specified.
*
*
*
*
*
■ 35. Section 86.410–2006 is amended
by revising paragraph (e) introductory
text to read as follows:
§ 86.410–2006 Emission standards for
2006 and later model year motorcycles.
*
*
*
*
*
(e) Manufacturers with fewer than 500
employees worldwide and producing
fewer than 3,000 motorcycles per year
for the United States are considered
small-volume manufacturers for the
purposes of this section. The following
provisions apply for these small-volume
manufacturers:
*
*
*
*
*
§ 86.419–78
[Removed]
36. Section 86.419–78 is removed.
■ 37. Section 86.419–2006 is amended
by revising paragraph (a)(1) to read as
follows:
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■
Where:
Ywm = Weighted mass emissions of each
pollutant (i.e., CO2, HC, CO, or NOX) in
grams per vehicle kilometer and if
appropriate, the weighted carbon mass
equivalent of total hydrocarbon
equivalent, in grams per vehicle
kilometer.
Yct = Mass emissions as calculated from the
transient phase of the cold-start test, in
grams per test phase.
Ys = Mass emissions as calculated from the
stabilized phase of the cold-start test, in
grams per test phase.
Dct = The measured driving distance from the
transient phase of the cold-start test, in
kilometers.
Ds = The measured driving distance from the
stabilized phase of the cold-start test, in
kilometers.
Yht = Mass emissions as calculated from the
transient phase of the hot-start test, in
grams per test phase.
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§ 86.419–2006 Engine displacement,
motorcycle classes.
(a)(1) Engine displacement shall be
calculated using nominal engine values
and rounded to the nearest whole cubic
centimeter.
*
*
*
*
*
■ 38. Section 86.432–78 is amended by
revising paragraph (d) to read as
follows:
§ 86.432–78
Deterioration factor.
*
*
*
*
*
(d) An exhaust emission deterioration
factor will be calculated by dividing the
predicted emissions at the useful life
distance by the predicted emissions at
the total test distance. Predicted
emissions are obtained from the
correlation developed in paragraph (c)
of this section. Factor = Predicted total
distance emissions ÷ Predicted total test
distance emissions. These interpolated
and extrapolated values shall be carried
out to four places to the right of the
decimal point before dividing one by
the other to determine the deterioration
factor. The results shall be rounded to
three places to the right of the decimal
point.
*
*
*
*
*
■ 39. Section 86.443–78 is revised to
read as follows:
§ 86.443–78
Request for hearing.
The manufacturer may request a
hearing on the Administrator’s
Dht = The measured driving distance from the
transient phase of the hot-start test, in
kilometers.
*
*
*
*
*
Subpart G—Selective Enforcement
Auditing of New Light-Duty Vehicles,
Light-Duty Trucks, and Heavy-Duty
Vehicles
42. Section 86.614–84 is revised to
read as follows:
■
§ 86.614–84 Hearings on suspension,
revocation, and voiding of certificates of
conformity.
The provisions of 40 CFR part 1068,
subpart G, apply if a manufacturer
requests a hearing regarding suspension,
revocation or voiding of certificates of
conformity.
■ 43. Section 86.615–84 is revised to
read as follows:
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determination as described in 40 CFR
part 1068, subpart G.
■ 40. Section 86.444–78 is revised to
read as follows:
§ 86.444–78
Hearings on certification.
If a manufacturer’s request for a
hearing is approved, EPA will follow
the hearing procedures specified in 40
CFR part 1068, subpart G.
Subpart F—Emission Regulations for
1978 and Later New Motorcycles; Test
Procedures
41. Section 86.544–90 is amended by
revising the introductory text and
paragraph (a) to read as follows:
■
§ 86.544–90
emissions.
Calculations; exhaust
This section describes how to
calculate exhaust emissions. Determine
emission results for each pollutant to at
least one more decimal place than the
applicable standard. Apply the
deterioration factor, then round the
adjusted figure to the same number of
decimal places as the emission
standard. Compare the rounded
emission levels to the emission standard
for each emission data vehicle. In the
case of NOX + HC standards, apply the
deterioration factor to each pollutant
and then add the results before
rounding.
(a) Calculate a composite FTP
emission result using the following
equation:
§ 86.615–84 Treatment of confidential
information.
The provisions of 40 CFR 1068.10
apply for information you consider
confidential.
Subpart L—Nonconformance Penalties
for Gasoline-Fueled and Diesel HeavyDuty Engines and Heavy-Duty
Vehicles, Including Light-Duty Trucks
§ 86.1103–87
■
[Removed]
44. Section 86.1103–87 is removed.
45. Section 86.1103–2016 is added to
subpart L to read as follows:
■
§ 86.1103–2016 Criteria for availability of
nonconformance penalties.
(a) General. This section describes the
three criteria EPA will use to use to
evaluate whether NCPs are appropriate
under the Clean Air Act for a given
pollutant and a given subclass of heavyduty engines and heavy-duty vehicles.
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Subpart E—Emission Regulations for
1978 and Later New Motorcycles,
General Provisions
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Together, these criteria evaluate the
likelihood that a manufacturer will be
technologically unable to meet a
standard on time. Note that since the
first two of these criteria are intended to
address the question of whether a given
standard creates the possibility for this
to occur, they are evaluated before the
third criterion that addresses the
likelihood that the possibility will
actually happen.
(b) Criteria. We will establish NCPs
for a given pollutant and subclass when
we find that each of the following
criteria is met:
(1) There is a new or revised emission
standard that is more stringent than the
previous standard for the pollutant, or
an existing standard for that pollutant
has become more difficult to achieve
because of a new or revised standard.
When evaluating this criterion, EPA will
consider a new or revised standard to be
‘‘new’’ or ‘‘revised’’ until the point at
which all manufacturers already
producing U.S.-directed engines or
vehicles within the subclass have
achieved full compliance with the
standard. For purposes of this criterion,
EPA will generally not consider
compliance using banked emission
credits to be ‘‘full compliance’’.
(2) Substantial work is required to
meet the standard for which the NCP is
offered, as evaluated from the point at
which the standard was adopted or
revised (or the point at which the
standard became more difficult meet
because another standard was adopted
or revised). Substantial work, as used in
this paragraph (b)(2), means the
application of technology not previously
used in an engine or vehicle class or
subclass, or the significant modification
of existing technology or design
parameters, needed to bring the vehicle
or engine into compliance with either
the more stringent new or revised
standard or an existing standard which
becomes more difficult to achieve
because of a new or revised standard.
Note that where this criterion is
evaluated after the work has been
completed, the criterion would be
interpreted as whether or not substantial
work was required to meet the standard.
(3) There is or is likely to be a
technological laggard for the subclass.
Note that a technological laggard is a
manufacturer that is unable to meet the
standard for one or more products
within the subclass for technological
reasons.
(c) Evaluation. (1) We will generally
evaluate these criteria in sequence.
Where we find that the first criterion
has not been met, we will not consider
the other two criteria. Where we find
that the first criterion has been met but
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not the second, we will not consider the
third criterion. We may announce our
findings separately or simultaneously.
(2) We may consider any available
information in making our findings.
(3) Where we are uncertain whether
the first and/or second criteria have
been met, we may presume that they
have been met and make our decision
based solely on whether or not the third
criterion has been met.
(4) Where we find that a manufacturer
will fail to meet a standard but are
uncertain whether the failure is a
technological failure, we may presume
that the manufacturer is a technological
laggard.
§ 86.1104–91
[Removed]
46. Section 86.1104–91 is removed.
■ 47. Section 86.1104–2016 is added to
subpart L to read as follows:
■
§ 86.1104–2016
limits.
Determination of upper
EPA shall set a separate upper limit
for each phase of NCPs and for each
service class.
(a) Except as provided in paragraphs
(b), (c) and (d) of this section, the upper
limit shall be set as follows:
(1) The upper limit applicable to a
pollutant emission standard for a
subclass of heavy-duty engines or
heavy-duty vehicles for which an NCP
is established in accordance with
§ 86.1103–87, shall be the previous
pollutant emission standard for that
subclass.
(2) If a manufacturer participates in
any of the emissions averaging, trading,
or banking programs, and carries over
certification of an engine family from
the prior model year, the upper limit for
that engine family shall be the family
emission limit of the prior model year,
unless the family emission limit is less
than the upper limit determined in
paragraph (a)(1) of this section.
(b) If no previous standard existed for
the pollutant under paragraph (a) of this
section, the upper limit will be
developed by EPA during rulemaking.
(c) EPA may set the upper limit
during rulemaking at a level below the
level specified in paragraph (a) of this
section if we determine that a lower
level is achievable by all engines or
vehicles in that subclass.
(d) EPA may set the upper limit at a
level above the level specified in
paragraph (a) of this section if we
determine that such level will not be
achievable by all engines or vehicles in
that subclass.
■ 48. Section 86.1105–87 is amended by
revising paragraph (e) and removing
paragraph (j).
The revision reads as follows:
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§ 86.1105–87 Emission standards for
which nonconformance penalties are
available.
*
*
*
*
*
(e) The values of COC50, COC90, and
MC50 in paragraphs (a) and (b) of this
section are expressed in December 1984
dollars. The values of COC50, COC90,
and MC50 in paragraphs (c) and (d) of
this section are expressed in December
1989 dollars. The values of COC50,
COC90, and MC50 in paragraph (f) of
this section are expressed in December
1991 dollars. The values of COC50,
COC90, and MC50 in paragraphs (g) and
(h) of this section are expressed in
December 1994 dollars. The values of
COC50, COC90, and MC50 in paragraph
(i) of this section are expressed in
December 2001 dollars. These values
shall be adjusted for inflation to dollars
as of January of the calendar year
preceding the model year in which the
NCP is first available by using the
change in the overall Consumer Price
Index, and rounded to the nearest whole
dollar in accordance with 40 CFR
1065.20.
*
*
*
*
*
■ 49. Section 86.1113–87 is amended by
revising paragraphs (f) and (g)(3)
introductory text to read as follows:
§ 86.1113–87
penalty.
Calculation and payment of
*
*
*
*
*
(f) A manufacturer may request a
hearing under 40 CFR part 1068, subpart
G, as to whether the compliance level
(including a compliance level in excess
of the upper limit) was determined
properly.
(g) * * *
(3) A manufacturer making payment
under paragraph (g)(1) or (2) of this
section shall submit the following
information by each quarterly due date
to the Designated Compliance Officer
(see 40 CFR 1036.801). This information
shall be submitted even if a
manufacturer has no NCP production in
a given quarter.
*
*
*
*
*
■ 50. Section 86.1115–87 is revised to
read as follows:
§ 86.1115–87 Hearing procedures for
nonconformance determinations and
penalties.
The provisions of 40 CFR part 1068,
subpart G, apply if a manufacturer
requests a hearing regarding penalties
under this subpart.
Subpart N—Exhaust Test Procedures
for Heavy-Duty Engines
51. Section 86.1362 is amended by
revising paragraph (a) to read as follows:
■
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§ 86.1362 Steady-state testing with a
ramped-modal cycle.
*
*
*
*
*
RMC
mode
1a
1b
2a
2b
3a
3b
4a
4b
5a
5b
6a
6b
7a
7b
8a
8b
9a
9b
10a
10b
11a
11b
12a
12b
13a
13b
14
(a) Measure emissions by testing the
engine on a dynamometer with the
following ramped-modal duty cycle to
170
20
173
20
219
20
217
20
103
20
100
20
103
20
194
20
218
20
171
20
102
20
100
20
102
20
168
CO2 weighting
(percent)4
Engine
speed 1 2
Torque
(percent) 2 3
Warm Idle ....................................
Linear Transition ..........................
A ...................................................
Linear Transition ..........................
B ...................................................
B ...................................................
B ...................................................
Linear Transition ..........................
A ...................................................
A ...................................................
A ...................................................
A ...................................................
A ...................................................
Linear Transition ..........................
B ...................................................
B ...................................................
B ...................................................
Linear Transition ..........................
C ..................................................
C ..................................................
C ..................................................
C ..................................................
C ..................................................
C ..................................................
C ..................................................
Linear Transition ..........................
Warm Idle ....................................
0 ...................................................
Linear Transition..
100 ...............................................
Linear Transition..
50 .................................................
Linear Transition..
75 .................................................
Linear Transition..
50 .................................................
Linear Transition..
75 .................................................
Linear Transition..
25 .................................................
Linear Transition..
100 ...............................................
Linear Transition..
25 .................................................
Linear Transition..
100 ...............................................
Linear Transition..
25 .................................................
Linear Transition..
75 .................................................
Linear Transition..
50 .................................................
Linear Transition..
0 ...................................................
Time in mode
(seconds)
Steady-state ..........................
Transition ...............................
Steady-state ..........................
Transition ...............................
Steady-state ..........................
Transition ...............................
Steady-state ..........................
Transition ...............................
Steady-state ..........................
Transition ...............................
Steady-state ..........................
Transition ...............................
Steady-state ..........................
Transition ...............................
Steady-state ..........................
Transition ...............................
Steady-state ..........................
Transition ...............................
Steady-state ........................
Transition .............................
Steady-state ........................
Transition .............................
Steady-state ........................
Transition .............................
Steady-state ........................
Transition .............................
Steady-state ..........................
determine whether it meets the
applicable steady-state emission
standards:
6
9
10
10
12
12
12
9
9
2
1
1
1
6
1 Speed
terms are defined in 40 CFR part 1065.
2 Advance from one mode to the next within a 20-second transition phase. During the transition phase, command a linear progression from the
speed or torque setting of the current mode to the speed or torque setting of the next mode.
3 The percent torque is relative to maximum torque at the commanded engine speed.
4 Use the specified weighting factors to calculate composite emission results for CO as specified in 40 CFR 1036.501.
2
*
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*
52. Section 86.1370 is amended by
revising paragraphs (g) and (h) and
adding paragraphs (i) and (j) to read as
follows:
■
§ 86.1370
Not-To-Exceed test procedures.
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(g) You may exclude emission data
based on catalytic aftertreatment
temperatures as follows:
(1) For an engine equipped with a
catalytic NOX aftertreatment system,
exclude NOX emission data that is
collected when the exhaust temperature
at any time during the NTE event is less
than 250 °C.
(2) For an engine equipped with an
oxidizing catalytic aftertreatment
system, exclude NMHC and CO
emission data that is collected if the
exhaust temperature is less than 250 °C
at any time during the NTE event.
(3) Using good engineering judgment,
measure exhaust temperature within 30
cm downstream of the last applicable
catalytic aftertreatment device. Where
there are parallel paths, use good
engineering judgment to measure the
temperature within 30 cm downstream
of the last applicable catalytic
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aftertreatment device in the path with
the greatest exhaust flow.
(h) Any emission measurements
corresponding to engine operating
conditions that do not qualify as a valid
NTE sampling event may be excluded
from the determination of the vehiclepass ratio specified in § 86.1912 for the
specific pollutant.
(i) Start emission sampling at the
beginning of each valid NTE sampling
event, except as needed to allow for
zeroing or conditioning the PEMS. For
gaseous emissions, PEMS preparation
must be complete for all analyzers
before starting emission sampling.
(j) Emergency vehicle AECDs. If your
engine family includes engines with one
or more approved AECDs for emergency
vehicle applications under paragraph (4)
of the definition of ‘‘defeat device’’ in
§ 86.1803, the NTE emission limits do
not apply when any of these AECDs are
active.
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Subpart S—General Compliance
Provisions for Control of Air Pollution
From New and In-Use Light-Duty
Vehicles, Light-Duty Trucks, and
Heavy-Duty Vehicles
§ 86.1801–12
[Amended]
53. Section 86.1801–12 is amended by
removing and reserving paragraph
(a)(2)(ii).
■ 54. Section 86.1802–01 is revised to
read as follows:
■
§ 86.1802–01 Section numbering;
construction.
(a) Section numbering. The model
year of initial applicability is indicated
by the section number. The two digits
following the hyphen designate the first
model year for which a section is
applicable. The section continues to
apply to subsequent model years unless
a later model year section is adopted.
Example: Section 86.18xx–10 applies to
model year 2010 and later vehicles. If a
§ 86.18xx–17 is promulgated, it would
apply beginning with the 2017 model
year; § 86.18xx–10 would apply only to
model years 2010 through 2016, except
as specified in § 86.18xx–17.
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(b) A section reference without a
model year suffix refers to the section
applicable for the appropriate model
year.
(c) If the regulation references a
section that has been superseded or no
longer exists, this should be understood
as a reference to the same section for the
appropriate model year. For example, if
the regulation refers to § 86.1845–01, it
should be taken as a reference to
§ 86.1845–04 or any later version of
§ 86.1845 that applies for the
appropriate model year. However, this
does not apply if the reference to a
superseded section specifically states
that the older provision applies instead
of any updated provisions from the
section in effect for the current model
year; this occurs most often as part of
the transition to new emission
standards.
■ 55. Section 86.1803–01 is amended as
follows:
■ a. By revising the definitions for ‘‘Base
level’’, ‘‘Base tire’’, ‘‘Base vehicle’’, and
‘‘Basic engine’’.
■ b. By adding a definition for ‘‘Cabcomplete vehicle’’.
■ c. By revising the definitions for
‘‘Carbon-related exhaust emissions
(CREE)’’, ‘‘Configuration’’, paragraph (1)
of ‘‘Emergency vehicle’’, ‘‘Engine code’’,
‘‘Highway Fuel Economy Test
Procedure (HFET)’’, ‘‘Mild hybrid
electric vehicle’’, ‘‘Model type’’,
‘‘Production volume’’, ‘‘Strong hybrid
electric vehicle’’, ‘‘Subconfiguration’’,
‘‘Transmission class’’, and
‘‘Transmission configuration’’.
■ d. By adding a definitions for
‘‘Transmission type’’.
The revisions and additions read as
follows:
§ 86.1803–01
Definitions.
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Base level has the meaning given in
40 CFR 600.002.
Base tire has the meaning given in 40
CFR 600.002.
Base vehicle has the meaning given in
40 CFR 600.002.
Basic engine has the meaning given in
40 CFR 600.002.
*
*
*
*
*
Cab-complete vehicle means a heavyduty vehicle that is first sold as an
incomplete vehicle that substantially
includes its cab. Vehicles known
commercially as chassis-cabs, cabchassis, box-deletes, bed-deletes, cutaway vans are considered cab-complete
vehicles. For purposes of this definition,
a cab includes a steering column and
passenger compartment. Note that a
vehicle lacking some components of the
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cab is a cab-complete vehicle if it
substantially includes the cab.
*
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*
*
*
Carbon-related exhaust emissions
(CREE) has the meaning given in 40 CFR
600.002.
*
*
*
*
*
Configuration means one of the
following:
(1) For LDV, LDT, and MDPV,
configuration means a subclassification
within a test group which is based on
engine code, inertia weight class,
transmission type and gear ratios, final
drive ratio, and other parameters which
may be designated by the Administrator.
(2) For HDV, configuration has the
meaning given in § 86.1819–14(d)(12).
*
*
*
*
*
Emergency vehicle * * *
(1) For the greenhouse gas emission
standards in §§ 86.1818 and 86.1819,
emergency vehicle means a motor
vehicle manufactured primarily for use
as an ambulance or combination
ambulance-hearse or for use by the
United States Government or a State or
local government for law enforcement.
*
*
*
*
*
Engine code means one of the
following:
(1) For LDV, LDT, and MDPV, engine
code means a unique combination
within a test group of displacement, fuel
injection (or carburetor) calibration,
choke calibration, distributor
calibration, auxiliary emission control
devices, and other engine and emission
control system components specified by
the Administrator. For electric vehicles,
engine code means a unique
combination of manufacturer, electric
traction motor, motor configuration,
motor controller, and energy storage
device.
(2) For HDV, engine code has the
meaning given in § 86.1819–14(d)(12).
*
*
*
*
*
Highway Fuel Economy Test
Procedure (HFET) has the meaning
given in 40 CFR 600.002.
*
*
*
*
*
Mild hybrid electric vehicle means a
hybrid electric vehicle that has start/
stop capability and regenerative braking
capability, where the recovered energy
over the Federal Test Procedure is at
least 15 percent but less than 65 percent
of the total braking energy, as measured
and calculated according to § 600.116–
12(d).
Model type has the meaning given in
40 CFR 600.002.
*
*
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*
*
Production volume has the meaning
given in 40 CFR 600.002.
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*
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Strong hybrid electric vehicle means a
hybrid electric vehicle that has start/
stop capability and regenerative braking
capability, where the recovered energy
over the Federal Test Procedure is at
least 65 percent of the total braking
energy, as measured and calculated
according to § 600.116–12(d).
Subconfiguration means one of the
following:
(1) For LDV, LDT, and MDPV,
subconfiguration has the meaning given
in 40 CFR 600.002.
(2) For HDV, subconfiguration has the
meaning given in § 86.1819–14(d)(12).
*
*
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*
*
Transmission class has the meaning
given in 40 CFR 600.002.
Transmission configuration has the
meaning given in 40 CFR 600.002.
Transmission type means the basic
type of the transmission (e.g., automatic,
manual, automated manual, semiautomatic, or continuously variable) and
does not include the drive system of the
vehicle (e.g., front-wheel drive, rearwheel drive, or four-wheel drive).
*
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*
*
■ 56. Section 86.1805–17 is amended by
revising paragraph (b) to read as follows:
§ 86.1805–17
Useful life.
*
*
*
*
*
(b) Greenhouse gas pollutants. The
emission standards in § 86.1818 apply
for a useful life of 10 years or 120,000
miles for LDV and LLDT and 11 years
or 120,000 miles for HLDT and MDPV.
For non-MDPV heavy-duty vehicles, the
emission standards in § 86.1819 apply
for a useful life of 11 years or 120,000
miles through model year 2020, and for
a useful life of 15 years or 150,000 miles
in model year 2021 and later.
Manufacturers may certify based on the
useful life as specified in paragraph (d)
of this section if it is different than the
useful life specified in this paragraph
(b).
*
*
*
*
*
■ 57. Section 86.1811–17 is amended by
revising paragraph (g) to read as follows:
§ 86.1811–17 Exhaust emission standards
for light-duty vehicles, light-duty trucks and
medium-duty passenger vehicles.
*
*
*
*
*
(g) Cold temperature exhaust
emission standards. The standards in
this paragraph (g) apply for certification
and in-use vehicles tested over the test
procedures specified in subpart C of this
part. These standards apply only to
gasoline-fueled vehicles. Multi-fuel, bifuel or dual-fuel vehicles must comply
with requirements using gasoline only.
Testing with other fuels such as a highlevel ethanol-gasoline blend, or testing
on diesel vehicles, is not required.
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§ 86.1818 for MDPV and in § 86.1819 for
other HDV. See § 86.1813 for
evaporative and refueling emission
standards. This section may apply to
vehicles before model year 2018 as
specified in paragraph (b)(11) of this
section. Separate requirements apply for
MDPV as specified in § 86.1811. See
subpart A of this part for requirements
that apply for incomplete heavy-duty
vehicles and for heavy-duty engines
certified independent of the chassis.
The following general provisions apply:
*
*
*
*
*
(b) * * *
(7) * * *
(i) The fleet-average FTP emission
TABLE 5 OF § 86.1811–17—FLEET
AVERAGE
COLD
TEMPERATURE standard for NMOG+NOX phases in over
NMHC EXHAUST EMISSION STAND- several years as described in this
paragraph (b)(7)(i). You must identify
ARDS
FELs as described in paragraph (b)(4) of
this section and calculate a fleet-average
Cold
emission level to show that you meet
temperature
NMHC salesthe FTP emission standard for
Vehicle weight category
weighted
NMOG+NOX that applies for each
fleet average
model year. You may certify using
standard
transitional bin standards specified in
(g/mile)
Table 5 of this section through model
LDV and LLDT ................
0.3 year 2021; these vehicles are subject to
HLDT ..............................
0.5 the FTP emission standard for
formaldehyde as described in
(ii) The manufacturer must calculate
§ 86.1818–08. You may use the E0 test
its fleet average cold temperature NMHC fuel specified in § 86.113 for gasolineemission level(s) as described in
fueled vehicles certified to the
§ 86.1864–10(m).
transitional bins; the useful life period
(iii) The standards specified in this
for these vehicles is 120,000 miles or 11
paragraph (g)(2) apply only for testing at years. Fleet-average FTP emission
low-altitude conditions. However,
standards decrease as shown in the
manufacturers must submit an
following table:
engineering evaluation indicating that
*
*
*
*
*
common calibration approaches are
(9) Except as specified in paragraph
utilized at high altitudes. Any deviation (b)(8) of this section, you may not use
from low altitude emission control
credits generated from vehicles certified
practices must be included in the
under § 86.1816–08 for demonstrating
auxiliary emission control device
compliance with the Tier 3 standards.
(AECD) descriptions submitted at
*
*
*
*
certification. Any AECD specific to high *
■ 59. Section 86.1818–12 is amended by
altitude must require engineering
revising paragraphs (a)(2), (c)(4), and
emission data for EPA evaluation to
(f)(4) to read as follows:
quantify any emission impact and
validity of the AECD.
§ 86.1818–12 Greenhouse gas emission
standards for light-duty vehicles, light-duty
*
*
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*
*
trucks, and medium-duty passenger
■ 58. Section 86.1816–18 is amended by
vehicles.
revising paragraphs (a) introductory
(a) * * *
text, (b)(7)(i) introductory text, and
(2) The standards specified in this
(b)(9) to read as follows:
section apply for testing at both low§ 86.1816–18 Emission standards for
altitude conditions and high-altitude
heavy-duty vehicles.
conditions. However, manufacturers
(a) Applicability and general
must submit an engineering evaluation
provisions. This section describes
indicating that common calibration
exhaust emission standards that apply
approaches are utilized at high altitude
for model year 2018 and later complete
instead of performing testing for
heavy-duty vehicles. These standards
certification, consistent with § 86.1829.
are optional for incomplete heavy-duty
Any deviation from low altitude
vehicles and for heavy duty vehicles
emission control practices must be
above 14,000 pounds GVWR as
included in the auxiliary emission
described in § 86.1801. Greenhouse gas
control device (AECD) descriptions
emission standards are specified in
submitted at certification. Any AECD
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(1) Cold temperature CO standards.
Cold temperature CO exhaust emission
standards apply for testing at both lowaltitude conditions and high-altitude
conditions as follows:
(i) For LDV and LDT1, the standard is
10.0 g/mile CO.
(ii) For LDT2, LDT3 and LDT4, the
standard is 12.5 grams per mile CO.
(2) Cold temperature NMHC
standards. The following fleet average
cold temperature NMHC standards
apply as follows:
(i) The standards are shown in the
following table:
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40559
specific to high altitude requires
engineering emission data for EPA
evaluation to quantify any emission
impact and determine the validity of the
AECD.
*
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*
(c) * * *
(4) Emergency vehicles. Emergency
vehicles may be excluded from the
emission standards described in this
section. The manufacturer must notify
the Administrator that they are making
such an election in the model year
reports required under § 600.512 of this
chapter. Such vehicles should be
excluded from both the calculation of
the fleet average standard for a
manufacturer under this paragraph (c)
and from the calculation of the fleet
average carbon-related exhaust
emissions in § 600.510–12.
*
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*
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*
(f) * * *
(4) CO2-equivalent debits. CO2equivalent debits for test groups using
an alternative N2O and/or CH4 standard
as determined under paragraph (f)(3) of
this section shall be calculated
according to the following equation and
rounded to the nearest whole megagram:
Debits = [GWP × (Production) ×
(AltStd ¥ Std) × VLM] ÷ 1,000,000
Where:
Debits = CO2-equivalent debits for N2O or
CH4, in Megagrams, for a test group using
an alternative N2O or CH4 standard,
rounded to the nearest whole Megagram;
GWP = 25 if calculating CH4 debits and 298
if calculating N2O debits;
Production = The number of vehicles of that
test group domestically produced plus
those imported as defined in § 600.511 of
this chapter;
AltStd = The alternative standard (N2O or
CH4) selected by the manufacturer under
paragraph (f)(3) of this section;
Std = The exhaust emission standard for N2O
or CH4 specified in paragraph (f)(1) of
this section; and
VLM = 195,264 for passenger automobiles
and 225,865 for light trucks.
*
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*
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*
60. Section 86.1819–14 is added to
subpart S to read as follows:
■
§ 86.1819–14 Greenhouse gas emission
standards for heavy-duty vehicles.
This section describes exhaust
emission standards for CO2, CH4, and
N2O for heavy-duty vehicles. The
standards of this section apply for
model year 2014 and later vehicles that
are chassis-certified with respect to
criteria pollutants under this subpart S.
Additional heavy-duty vehicles may be
optionally subject to the standards of
this section as allowed under paragraph
(j) of this section. Any heavy-duty
vehicles not subject to standards under
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of subconfigurations as allowed under
paragraph (a)(4) of this section),
rounded to the nearest pound, using the
following equation:
WF = 0.75 × (GVWR ¥ Curb Weight +
xwd) + 0.25 × (GCWR ¥ GVWR)
(2) Using the appropriate work factor,
calculate a target value for each vehicle
subconfiguration (or group of
subconfigurations as allowed under
paragraph (a)(4) of this section) you
produce using one of the following
equations, or the phase-in provisions in
paragraph (k)(4) of this section,
rounding to the nearest whole g/mile:
(i) For model year 2027 and later
vehicles with spark-ignition engines:
CO2 Target (g/mile) = 0.0369 × WF + 284
(ii) For model year 2027 and later
vehicles with compression-ignition
engines or with no engines (such as
electric vehicles and fuel cell vehicles):
CO2 Target (g/mile) = 0.0348 × WF + 268
(3) Calculate a production-weighted
average of the target values and round
it to the nearest whole g/mile. This is
your fleet-average standard. All vehicles
subject to the standards of this section
form a single averaging set. Use the
following equation to calculate your
fleet-average standard from the target
value for each vehicle subconfiguration
(Targeti) and U.S.-directed production
volume of each vehicle subconfiguration
for the given model year (Volumei):
(4) You may group subconfigurations
within a configuration together for
purposes of calculating your fleetaverage standard as follows:
(i) You may group together
subconfigurations that have the same
equivalent test weight (ETW), GVWR,
and GCWR. Calculate your work factor
and target value assuming a curb weight
equal to two times ETW minus GVWR.
(ii) You may group together other
subconfigurations if you use the lowest
target value calculated for any of the
subconfigurations.
(5) The standards specified in this
section apply for testing at both lowaltitude conditions and high-altitude
conditions. However, manufacturers
must submit an engineering evaluation
indicating that common calibration
approaches are utilized at high altitude
instead of performing testing for
certification, consistent with § 86.1829.
Any deviation from low altitude
emission control practices must be
included in the auxiliary emission
control device (AECD) descriptions
submitted at certification. Any AECD
specific to high altitude requires
engineering emission data for EPA
evaluation to quantify any emission
impact and determine the validity of the
AECD.
(b) Production and in-use CO2
standards. Each vehicle you produce
that is subject to the standards of this
section has an ‘‘in-use’’ CO2 standard
that is calculated from your test result
and that applies for selective
enforcement audits and in-use testing.
This in-use CO2 standard for each
vehicle is equal to the applicable
deteriorated emission level multiplied
by 1.10 and rounded to the nearest
whole g/mile.
(c) N2O and CH4 standards. Except as
allowed under this paragraph (c), all
vehicles subject to the standards of this
section must comply with an N2O
standard of 0.05 g/mile and a CH4
standard of 0.05 g/mile when calculated
according to the provisions of paragraph
(d)(4) of this section. You may specify
CH4 and/or N2O alternative standards
using CO2 emission credits instead of
these otherwise applicable emission
standards for one or more test groups.
To do this, calculate the CH4 and/or
N2O emission credits needed (negative
credits) using the equation in this
paragraph (c) based on the FEL(s) you
specify for your vehicles during
certification. You must adjust the
calculated emissions by the global
warming potential (GWP): GWP equals
25 for CH4 and 298 for N2O. This means
you must use 25 Mg of positive CO2
credits to offset 1 Mg of negative CH4
credits and 298 Mg of positive CO2
credits to offset 1 Mg of negative N2O
credits. Note that § 86.1818–12(f) does
not apply for vehicles subject to the
standards of this section. Calculate
credits using the following equation:
CO2 Credits Needed (Mg) = [(FEL ¥
Std) × (U.S.-directed production
volume) × (Useful Life)] × (GWP) ÷
1,000,000
(d) Compliance provisions. The
following compliance provisions apply
instead of other provisions described in
this subpart S:
(1) The CO2 standards of this section
apply with respect to CO2 emissions,
not with respect to carbon-related
exhaust emissions (CREE).
(2) The following general credit
provisions apply:
(i) Credits you generate under this
section may be used only to offset credit
deficits under this section. You may
bank credits for use in a future model
year in which your average CO2 level
exceeds the standard. You may trade
credits to another manufacturer
according to § 86.1865–12(k)(8). Before
you bank or trade credits, you must
apply any available credits to offset a
deficit if the deadline to offset that
credit deficit has not yet passed.
(ii) Vehicles subject to the standards
of this section are included in a single
greenhouse gas averaging set separate
from any averaging set otherwise
included in this subpart S.
(iii) Banked CO2 credits keep their full
value for five model years after the year
in which they were generated. Unused
credits may not be used for more than
five model years after the model year in
which the credits are generated.
(3) Special credit and incentive
provisions related to air conditioning in
§§ 86.1867 and 86.1868 do not apply for
vehicles subject to the standards of this
section.
(4) Measure emissions using the
procedures of subpart B of this part and
40 CFR part 1066. Determine separate
emission results for the Federal Test
Procedure (FTP) described in 40 CFR
1066.801(c)(1) and the Highway Fuel
Economy Test (HFET) described in 40
CFR 1066.801(c)(3). Calculate composite
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Where:
xwd = 500 pounds if the vehicle has fourwheel drive or all-wheel drive; xwd = 0
pounds for all other vehicles.
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this section are instead subject to
greenhouse gas standards under 40 CFR
part 1037, and engines installed in these
vehicles are subject to standards under
40 CFR part 1036. If you are not the
engine manufacturer, you must notify
the engine manufacturer that its engines
are subject to 40 CFR part 1036 if you
intend to use their engines in vehicles
that are not subject to standards under
this section. Vehicles produced by small
businesses may be excluded from the
standards of this section as described in
paragraph (k)(5) of this section.
(a) Fleet-average CO2 emission
standards. Fleet-average CO2 emission
standards apply for the full useful life
for each manufacturer as follows:
(1) Calculate a work factor, WF, for
each vehicle subconfiguration (or group
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emission results from these two test
cycles for demonstrating compliance
with the CO2, N2O, and CH4 standards
based on a weighted average of the FTP
(55%) and HFET (45%) emission
results. Note that this differs from the
way the criteria pollutant standards
apply.
(5) Apply an additive deterioration
factor of zero to measured CO2
emissions unless good engineering
judgment indicates that emissions are
likely to deteriorate in use. Use good
engineering judgment to develop
separate deterioration factors for N2O
and CH4.
(6) Credits are calculated using the
useful life value (in miles) in place of
‘‘vehicle lifetime miles’’ as specified in
§ 86.1865. Calculate a total credit or
debit balance in a model year by adding
credits and debits from § 86.1865–
12(k)(4), subtracting any CO2-equivalent
debits for N2O or CH4 calculated
according to paragraph (c) of this
section, and adding any of the following
credits:
(i) Off-cycle technology credits
according to paragraph (d)(13) of this
section.
(ii) Early credits from vehicles
certified under paragraph (k)(2) of this
section.
(iii) Advanced technology credits
according to paragraph (k)(7) of this
section.
(7) [Reserved]
(8) The provisions of § 86.1818 do not
apply.
(9) Calculate your fleet-average
emission rate consistent with good
engineering judgment and the
provisions of § 86.1865. The following
additional provisions apply:
(i) Unless we approve a lower
number, you must test at least ten
subconfigurations. If you produce more
than 100 subconfigurations in a given
model year, you must test at least ten
percent of your subconfigurations. For
purposes of this paragraph (d)(9)(i),
count carryover tests, but do not include
analytically derived CO2 emission rates,
data substitutions, or other untested
allowances. We may approve a lower
number of tests for manufacturers that
have limited product offerings, or low
sales volumes. Note that good
engineering judgment and other
provisions of this part may require you
to test more subconfigurations than
these minimum values.
(ii) The provisions of paragraph (g) of
this section specify how you may use
analytically derived CO2 emission rates.
(iii) At least 90 percent of final
production volume at the configuration
level must be represented by test data
(real, data substituted, or analytical).
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(iv) Perform fleet-average CO2
calculations as described in § 86.1865
and 40 CFR part 600, with the following
exceptions:
(A) Use CO2 emissions values for all
test results, intermediate calculations,
and fleet average calculations instead of
the carbon-related exhaust emission
(CREE) values specified in this subpart
S and 40 CFR part 600.
(B) Perform intermediate CO2
calculations for subconfigurations
within each configuration using the
subconfiguration and configuration
definitions in paragraph (d)(12) of this
section.
(C) Perform intermediate CO2
calculations for configurations within
each test group and transmission type
(instead of configurations within each
base level and base levels within each
model type). Use the configuration
definition in paragraph (d)(12)(i) of this
section.
(D) Do not perform intermediate CO2
calculations for each base level or for
each model type. Base level and model
type CO2 calculations are not applicable
to heavy-duty vehicles subject to
standards in this section.
(E) Determine fleet average CO2
emissions for heavy-duty vehicles
subject to standards in this section as
described in 40 CFR 600.510–12(j),
except that the calculations must be
performed on the basis of test group and
transmission type (instead of the modeltype basis specified in the light-duty
vehicle regulations), and the
calculations for dual fuel, multi-fuel,
and flexible fuel vehicles must be
consistent with the provisions of
paragraph (d)(10)(i) of this section.
(10) For dual-fuel, multi-fuel, and
flexible-fuel vehicles, perform exhaust
testing on each fuel type (for example,
gasoline and E85).
(i) For your fleet-average calculations,
use either the conventional-fueled CO2
emission rate or a weighted average of
your emission results as specified in 40
CFR 600.510–12(k) for light-duty trucks.
(ii) If you certify to an alternate
standard for N2O or CH4 emissions, you
may not exceed the alternate standard
when tested on either fuel.
(11) Test your vehicles with an
equivalent test weight based on its
Adjusted Loaded Vehicle Weight
(ALVW). Determine equivalent test
weight from the ALVW as specified in
40 CFR 1066.805; round ALVW values
above 14,000 pounds to the nearest 500
pound increment.
(12) The following definitions apply
for the purposes of this section:
(i) Configuration means a
subclassification within a test group
based on engine code, transmission type
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and gear ratios, final drive ratio, and
other parameters we designate. Engine
code means the combination of both
‘‘engine code’’ and ‘‘basic engine’’ as
defined in 40 CFR 600.002.
(ii) Subconfiguration means a unique
combination within a vehicle
configuration (as defined in this
paragraph (d)(12)) of equivalent test
weight, road-load horsepower, and any
other operational characteristics or
parameters that we determine may
significantly affect CO2 emissions
within a vehicle configuration. Note that
for vehicles subject to standards of this
section, equivalent test weight (ETW) is
based on the ALVW of the vehicle as
outlined in paragraph (d)(11) of this
section.
(13) This paragraph (d)(13) applies for
CO2 reductions resulting from
technologies that were not in common
use before 2010 that are not reflected in
the specified test procedures. These may
be described as off-cycle or innovative
technologies. We may allow you to
generate emission credits consistent
with the provisions of § 86.1869–12(c)
and (d). You do not need to provide
justification for not using the 5-cycle
methodology.
(14) You must submit pre-model year
reports before you submit your
applications for certification for a given
model year. Unless we specify
otherwise, include the information
specified for pre-model year reports in
49 CFR 535.8.
(15) You must submit a final report
within 90 days after the end of the
model year. Unless we specify
otherwise, include applicable
information identified in § 86.1865–
12(l), 40 CFR 600.512, and 49 CFR
535.8(e). The final report must include
at least the following information:
(i) Model year.
(ii) Applicable fleet-average CO2
standard.
(iii) Calculated fleet-average CO2
value and all the values required to
calculate the CO2 value.
(iv) Number of credits or debits
incurred and all values required to
calculate those values.
(v) Resulting balance of credits or
debits.
(vi) N2O emissions.
(vii) CH4 emissions.
(viii) Total and percent leakage rates
under paragraph (h) of this section.
(e) Useful life. The exhaust emission
standards of this section apply for the
full useful life, as described in
§ 86.1805.
(f) [Reserved]
(g) Analytically derived CO2 emission
rates (ADCs). This paragraph (g)
describes an allowance to use estimated
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(i.e., analytically derived) CO2 emission
rates based on baseline test data instead
of measured emission rates for
calculating fleet-average emissions. Note
that these ADCs are similar to ADFEs
used for light-duty vehicles. Note also
that F terms used in this paragraph (g)
represent coefficients from the following
road load equation:
Force = F0 + F1 · (velocity) + F2
· (velocity)2
(1) Except as specified in paragraph
(g)(2) of this section, use the following
equation to calculate the ADC of a new
vehicle from road load force coefficients
(F0, F1, F2), axle ratio, and test weight:
ADC = CO2base + 2.18 · DF0 + 37.4 · DF1
+ 2257 · DF2 + 189 · DAR + 0.0222
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Where:
ADC = Analytically derived combined city/
highway CO2 emission rate (g/mile) for a
new vehicle.
CO2base = Combined city/highway CO2
emission rate (g/mile) of a baseline
vehicle.
DF0 = F0 of the new vehicle—F0 of the
baseline vehicle.
DF1 = F1 of the new vehicle—F1 of the
baseline vehicle.
DF2 = F2 of the new vehicle—F2 of the
baseline vehicle.
DAR = Axle ratio of the new vehicle—axle
ratio of the baseline vehicle.
DETW = ETW of the new vehicle—ETW of
the baseline vehicle.
(2) The purpose of this section is to
accurately estimate CO2 emission rates.
(i) You must apply the provisions of
this section consistent with good
engineering judgment. For example, do
not use the equation in paragraph (g)(1)
of this section where good engineering
judgment indicates that it will not
accurately estimate emissions. You may
ask us to approve alternate equations
that allow you to estimate emissions
more accurately.
(ii) The analytically derived CO2
equation in paragraph (g)(1) of this
section may be periodically updated
through publication of an EPA guidance
document to more accurately
characterize CO2 emission levels for
example, changes may be appropriate
based on new test data, future
technology changes, or to changes in
future CO2 emission levels. Any EPA
guidance document will determine the
model year that the updated equation
takes effect. We will issue guidance no
later than eight months before the
effective model year. For example,
model year 2014 may start January 2,
2013, so guidance for model year 2014
would be issued by May 1, 2012.
(3) You may select baseline test data
without our advance approval if they
meet all the following criteria:
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(i) Vehicles considered for the
baseline test must comply with all
applicable emission standards in the
model year associated with the ADC.
(ii) You must include in the pool of
tests considered for baseline selection
all official tests of the same or
equivalent basic engine, transmission
class, engine code, transmission code,
engine horsepower, dynamometer drive
wheels, and compression ratio as the
ADC subconfiguration. Do not include
tests in which emissions exceed any
applicable standard.
(iii) Where necessary to minimize the
CO2 adjustment, you may supplement
the pool with tests associated with
worst-case engine or transmission codes
and carryover or carry-across engine
families. If you do, all the data that
qualify for inclusion using the elected
worst-case substitution (or carryover or
carry-across) must be included in the
pool as supplemental data (i.e.,
individual test vehicles may not be
selected for inclusion). You must also
include the supplemental data in all
subsequent pools, where applicable.
(iv) Tests previously used during the
subject model year as baseline tests in
ten other ADC subconfigurations must
be eliminated from the pool.
(v) Select the tested subconfiguration
with the smallest absolute difference
between the ADC and the test CO2
emission rate for combined emissions.
Use this as the baseline test for the
target ADC subconfiguration.
(4) You may ask us to allow you to
use baseline test data not fully meeting
the provisions of paragraph (g)(3) of this
section.
(5) Calculate the ADC rounded to the
nearest whole g/mile. Except with our
advance approval, the downward
adjustment of ADC from the baseline is
limited to ADC values 20 percent below
the baseline emission rate. The upward
adjustment is not limited.
(6) You may not submit an ADC if an
actual test has been run on the target
subconfiguration during the certification
process or on a development vehicle
that is eligible to be declared as an
emission-data vehicle.
(7) No more than 40 percent of the
subconfigurations tested in your final
CO2 submission may be represented by
ADCs.
(8) Keep the following records for at
least five years, and show them to us if
we ask to see them:
(i) The pool of tests.
(ii) The vehicle description and tests
chosen as the baseline and the basis for
the selection.
(iii) The target ADC subconfiguration.
(iv) The calculated emission rates.
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(9) We may perform or order a
confirmatory test of any
subconfiguration covered by an ADC.
(10) Where we determine that you did
not fully comply with the provisions of
this paragraph (g), we may require that
you comply based on actual test data
and that you recalculate your fleetaverage emission rate.
(h) Air conditioning leakage. Loss of
refrigerant from your air conditioning
systems may not exceed a total leakage
rate of 11.0 grams per year or a percent
leakage rate of 1.50 percent per year,
whichever is greater. Calculate the total
leakage rate in g/year as specified in
§ 86.1867–12(a). Calculate the percent
leakage rate as: [total leakage rate (g/yr)]
÷ [total refrigerant capacity (g)] × 100.
Round your percent leakage rate to the
nearest one-hundredth of a percent.
(1) For purpose of this requirement,
‘‘refrigerant capacity’’ is the total mass
of refrigerant recommended by the
vehicle manufacturer as representing a
full charge. Where full charge is
specified as a pressure, use good
engineering judgment to convert the
pressure and system volume to a mass.
(2) If your system uses a refrigerant
other than HFC–134a that is listed as an
acceptable substitute refrigerant for
heavy-duty vehicles under 40 CFR part
82, subpart G, and the substitute
refrigerant is identified in § 86.1867–
12(e), your system is deemed to meet
the leakage standard in this paragraph
(h), consistent with good engineering
judgment, and the reporting
requirement of § 86.1844–01(d)(7))(iv)
does not apply. If your system uses any
other refrigerant that is listed as an
acceptable substitute refrigerant for
heavy-duty vehicles under 40 CFR part
82, subpart G, contact us for procedures
for calculating the leakage rate in a way
that appropriately accounts for the
refrigerant’s properties.
(i) [Reserved]
(j) Optional GHG certification under
this subpart. You may certify certain
complete or cab-complete vehicles to
the GHG standards of this section. All
vehicles optionally certified under this
paragraph (j) are deemed to be subject
to the GHG standards of this section.
Note that for vehicles above 14,000
pounds GVWR and at or below 26,000
pounds GVWR, GHG certification under
this paragraph (j) does not affect how
you may or may not certify with respect
to criteria pollutants.
(1) For GHG compliance, you may
certify any complete or cab-complete
spark-ignition vehicles above 14,000
pounds GVWR and at or below 26,000
pounds GVWR to the GHG standards of
this section even though this section
otherwise specifies that you may certify
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vehicles to the GHG standards of this
section only if they are chassis-certified
for criteria pollutants.
(2) You may apply the provisions of
this section to cab-complete vehicles
based on a complete sister vehicle. In
unusual circumstances, you may ask us
to apply these provisions to Class 2b or
Class 3 incomplete vehicles that do not
meet the definition of cab-complete.
(i) Except as specified in paragraph
(j)(3) of this section, for purposes of this
section, a complete sister vehicle is a
complete vehicle of the same vehicle
configuration as the cab-complete
vehicle. You may not apply the
provisions of this paragraph (j) to any
vehicle configuration that has a fourwheel rear axle if the complete sister
vehicle has a two-wheel rear axle.
(ii) Calculate the target value for fleetaverage CO2 emissions under paragraph
(a) or (k)(4) of this section based on the
work factor value that applies for the
complete sister vehicle.
(iii) Test these cab-complete vehicles
using the same equivalent test weight
and other dynamometer settings that
apply for the complete vehicle from
which you used the work factor value
(the complete sister vehicle). For GHG
certification, you may submit the test
data from that complete sister vehicle
instead of performing the test on the
cab-complete vehicle.
(iv) You are not required to produce
the complete sister vehicle for sale to
use the provisions of this paragraph
(j)(2). This means the complete sister
vehicle may be a carryover vehicle from
a prior model year or a vehicle created
solely for the purpose of testing.
(3) For GHG purposes, if a cabcomplete vehicle is not of the same
vehicle configuration as a complete
sister vehicle due only to certain factors
unrelated to coastdown performance,
you may use the road-load coefficients
from the complete sister vehicle for
certification testing of the cab-complete
vehicle, but you may not use emission
data from the complete sister vehicle for
certifying the cab-complete vehicle.
(k) Interim provisions. The following
provisions apply instead of other
provisions in this subpart:
(1) Incentives for early introduction.
Manufacturers may voluntarily certify
in model year 2013 (or earlier model
years for electric vehicles) to the
greenhouse gas standards that apply
starting in model year 2014 as specified
in 40 CFR 1037.150(a).
(2) Early credits. To generate early
credits under this paragraph (k)(2) for
any vehicles other than electric
vehicles, you must certify your entire
U.S.-directed fleet to these standards. If
you calculate a separate fleet average for
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advanced-technology vehicles under
paragraph (k)(7) of this section, you
must certify your entire U.S.-directed
production volume of both advanced
and conventional vehicles within the
fleet. If some test groups are certified
after the start of the model year, you
may generate credits only for
production that occurs after all test
groups are certified. For example, if you
produce three test groups in an
averaging set and you receive your
certificates for those test groups on
January 4, 2013, March 15, 2013, and
April 24, 2013, you may not generate
credits for model year 2013 for vehicles
from any of the test groups produced
before April 24, 2013. Calculate credits
relative to the standard that would
apply in model year 2014 using the
applicable equations in this subpart and
your model year 2013 U.S.-directed
production volumes. These credits may
be used to show compliance with the
standards of this subpart for 2014 and
later model years. We recommend that
you notify us of your intent to use this
provision before submitting your
applications.
(3) Compliance date. Compliance
with the standards of this section was
optional before January 1, 2014 as
specified in 40 CFR 1037.150(g).
(4) Phase-in provisions. Each
manufacturer must choose one of the
options specified in paragraphs (k)(4)(i)
and (ii) of this section for phasing in the
Phase 1 standards. Manufacturers must
follow the schedule described in
paragraph (k)(4)(iii) of this section for
phasing in the Phase 2 standards.
(i) Phase 1—Option 1. You may
implement the Phase 1 standards by
applying CO2 target values as specified
in the following table for model year
2014 through 2020 vehicles:
TABLE 1 OF § 86.1819–14
Model year and engine
cycle
Alternate CO2 target
(g/mile)
2014 Spark-Ignition ...........
2015 Spark-Ignition ...........
2016 Spark-Ignition ...........
2017 Spark-Ignition ...........
2018–2020 Spark-Ignition
2014 Compression-Ignition
2015 Compression-Ignition
2016 Compression-Ignition
2017 Compression-Ignition
2018–2020 CompressionIgnition.
0.0482
0.0479
0.0469
0.0460
0.0440
0.0478
0.0474
0.0460
0.0445
0.0416
×
×
×
×
×
×
×
×
×
×
(WF)
(WF)
(WF)
(WF)
(WF)
(WF)
(WF)
(WF)
(WF)
(WF)
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
371
369
362
354
339
368
366
354
343
320
(ii) Phase 1—Option 2. You may
implement the Phase 1 standards by
applying CO2 target values specified in
the following table for model year 2014
through 2020 vehicles:
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TABLE 2 OF § 86.1819–14
Model year and engine
cycle
2014 Spark-Ignition ...........
2015 Spark-Ignition ...........
2016–2018 Spark-Ignition
2019–2020 Spark-Ignition
2014 Compression-Ignition
2015 Compression-Ignition
2016–2018 CompressionIgnition.
2019–2020 CompressionIgnition.
Alternate CO2 target
(g/mile)
0.0482
0.0479
0.0456
0.0440
0.0478
0.0474
0.0440
×
×
×
×
×
×
×
(WF)
(WF)
(WF)
(WF)
(WF)
(WF)
(WF)
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
371
369
352
339
368
366
339
0.0416 × (WF) + 320
(iii) Phase 2. Apply Phase 2 CO2 target
values as specified in the following
table for model year 2021 through 2026
vehicles:
TABLE 3 OF § 86.1819–14
Model year and engine
cycle
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
Spark-Ignition ...........
Spark-Ignition ...........
Spark-Ignition ...........
Spark-Ignition ...........
Spark-Ignition ...........
Spark-Ignition ...........
Compression-Ignition
Compression-Ignition
Compression-Ignition
Compression-Ignition
Compression-Ignition
Compression-Ignition
Alternate CO2 target
(g/mile)
0.0429
0.0418
0.0408
0.0398
0.0388
0.0378
0.0406
0.0395
0.0386
0.0376
0.0367
0.0357
×
×
×
×
×
×
×
×
×
×
×
×
(WF)
(WF)
(WF)
(WF)
(WF)
(WF)
(WF)
(WF)
(WF)
(WF)
(WF)
(WF)
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
331
322
314
306
299
291
312
304
297
289
282
275
(5) Provisions for small
manufacturers. Standards apply on a
delayed schedule for manufacturers
meeting the small business criteria
specified in 13 CFR 121.201. Apply the
small business criteria for NAICS code
336111 for vehicle manufacturers and
811198 for companies performing fuel
conversions with vehicles manufactured
by a different company. Qualifying
manufacturers are not subject to the
greenhouse gas standards of this section
for vehicles built before January 1, 2019,
as specified in 40 CFR 1037.150(c). The
employee and revenue limits apply to
the total number employees and total
revenue together for affiliated
companies. In addition, manufacturers
producing vehicles that run on any fuel
other than gasoline, E85, or diesel fuel
may delay complying with every new
standard under this part by one model
year.
(6) Alternate N2O standards.
Manufacturers may show compliance
with the N2O standards using an
engineering analysis. This allowance
also applies for model year 2015 and
later test groups or emission families
carried over from model 2014 consistent
with the provisions of § 86.1839. You
may not certify to an N2O FEL different
than the standard without measuring
N2O emissions.
(7) Advanced technology credits.
Credits generated from hybrid vehicles
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with regenerative braking or from
vehicles with other advanced
technologies may be used to show
compliance with any standards of this
part or 40 CFR part 1036, subject to the
service class restrictions in 40 CFR
1037.740. You may multiply these
credits by 1.50. Include these vehicles
in a separate fleet-average calculation
(and exclude them from your
conventional fleet-average calculation).
You must first apply these advanced
technology vehicle credits to any
deficits for other vehicles in the
averaging set before applying them to
other averaging sets. Credits you
generate under this paragraph (k)(7) may
be used to demonstrate compliance with
the CO2 emission standards in 40 CFR
part 1036 and part 1037. Similarly, you
may use advanced-technology credits
generated under 40 CFR 1036.615 or
1037.615 to demonstrate compliance
with the CO2 standards in this section.
You may generate advanced technology
credits under this paragraph (k)(7) only
with Phase 1 vehicles.
(8) Loose engine sales. This paragraph
(k)(8) applies for model year 2020 and
earlier spark-ignition engines identical
to engines used in vehicles certified to
the standards of this section, where you
sell such engines as loose engines or as
engines installed in incomplete vehicles
that are not cab-complete vehicles. For
purposes of this paragraph (k)(8),
engines would not be considered to be
identical if they used different engine
hardware. You may include such
engines in a test group certified to the
standards of this section, subject to the
following provisions:
(i) Engines certified under this
paragraph (k)(8) are deemed to be
certified to the standards of 40 CFR
1036.108 as specified in 40 CFR
1036.150(j).
(ii) The U.S.-directed production
volume of engines you sell as loose
engines or installed in incomplete
heavy-duty vehicles that are not cabcomplete vehicles in any given model
year may not exceed ten percent of the
total U.S-directed production volume of
engines of that design that you produce
for heavy-duty applications for that
model year, including engines you
produce for complete vehicles, cabcomplete vehicles, and other incomplete
vehicles. The total number of engines
you may certify under this paragraph
(k)(8), of all engine designs, may not
exceed 15,000 in any model year.
Engines produced in excess of either of
these limits are not covered by your
certificate. For example, if you produce
80,000 complete model year 2017 Class
2b pickup trucks with a certain engine
and 10,000 incomplete model year 2017
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Class 3 vehicles with that same engine,
and you do not apply the provisions of
this paragraph (k)(8) to any other engine
designs, you may produce up to 10,000
engines of that design for sale as loose
engines under this paragraph (k)(8). If
you produced 11,000 engines of that
design for sale as loose engines, the last
1,000 of them that you produced in that
model year 2017 would be considered
uncertified.
(iii) This paragraph (k)(8) does not
apply for engines certified to the
standards of 40 CFR 1036.108.
(iv) Label the engines as specified in
40 CFR 1036.135 including the
following compliance statement: ‘‘THIS
ENGINE WAS CERTIFIED TO THE
ALTERNATE GREENHOUSE GAS
EMISSION STANDARDS OF 40 CFR
1036.150(j).’’ List the test group name
instead of an engine family name.
(v) Vehicles using engines certified
under this paragraph (k)(8) are subject to
the emission standards of 40 CFR
1037.105.
(vi) For certification purposes, your
engines are deemed to have a CO2 target
value and test result equal to the CO2
target value and test result for the
complete vehicle in the applicable test
group with the highest equivalent test
weight, except as specified in paragraph
(k)(8)(vi)(B) of this section. Use these
values to calculate your target value,
fleet-average emission rate, and in-use
emission standard. Where there are
multiple complete vehicles with the
same highest equivalent test weight,
select the CO2 target value and test
result as follows:
(A) If one or more of the CO2 test
results exceed the applicable target
value, use the CO2 target value and test
result of the vehicle that exceeds its
target value by the greatest amount.
(B) If none of the CO2 test results
exceed the applicable target value,
select the highest target value and set
the test result equal to it. This means
that you may not generate emission
credits from vehicles certified under
this paragraph (k)(8).
(vii) State in your applications for
certification that your test group and
engine family will include engines
certified under this paragraph (k)(8).
This applies for your greenhouse gas
vehicle test group and your criteria
pollutant engine family. List in each
application the name of the
corresponding test group/engine family.
(9) Credit adjustment for useful life.
For credits that you calculate based on
a useful life of 120,000 miles, multiply
any banked credits that you carry
forward for use in model year 2021 and
later by 1.25.
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(10) CO2 rounding. For model year
2014 and earlier vehicles, you may
round measured and calculated CO2
emission levels to the nearest 0.1 g/mile,
instead of the nearest whole g/mile as
specified in paragraphs (a), (b), and (g)
of this section.
■ 61. Section 86.1823–08 is amended by
revising the definition of ‘‘R’’ in
paragraph (d)(3) to read as follows:
§ 86.1823–08 Durability demonstration
procedures for exhaust emissions.
*
*
*
*
*
(d) * * *
(3) * * *
R = Catalyst thermal reactivity
coefficient. You may use a default
value of 17,500 for the SBC.
*
*
*
*
*
■ 62. Section 86.1838–01 is amended by
revising paragraph (b)(1)(i)(B), adding
paragraph (b)(1)(i)(C), and revising
paragraph (d)(3)(iii) introductory text to
read as follows:
§ 86.1838–01 Small-volume manufacturer
certification procedures.
*
*
*
*
*
(b) * * *
(1) * * *
(i) * * *
(B) No small-volume sales threshold
applies for the heavy-duty greenhouse
gas standards; alternative small-volume
criteria apply as described in § 86.1819–
14(k)(4).
(C) 15,000 units for all other
requirements. See § 86.1845 for separate
provisions that apply for in-use testing.
*
*
*
*
*
(d) * * *
(3) * * *
(iii) Notwithstanding the
requirements of paragraph (d)(3)(ii) of
this section, an applicant may satisfy
the requirements of this paragraph (d)(3)
if the requirements of this paragraph
(d)(3) are completed by an auditor who
is an employee of the applicant,
provided that such employee:
*
*
*
*
*
■ 63. Section 86.1844–01 is amended by
adding paragraph (d)(7)(iv) to read as
follows:
§ 86.1844–01 Information requirements:
Application for certification and submittal of
information upon request.
*
*
*
*
*
(d) * * *
(7) * * *
(iv) For heavy-duty vehicles subject to
air conditioning standards under
§ 86.1819, include the refrigerant
leakage rates (leak scores), describe the
type of refrigerant, and identify the
refrigerant capacity of the air
conditioning systems. If another
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company will install the air
conditioning system, also identify the
corporate name of the final installer.
*
*
*
*
*
■ 64. Section 86.1846–01 is amended by
revising paragraph (b)(1)(i) to read as
follows:
§ 86.1846–01 Manufacturer in-use
confirmatory testing requirements.
*
*
*
*
*
(b) * * *
(1) * * *
(i) Additional testing is not required
under this paragraph (b)(1) based on
evaporative/refueling testing or based
on low-mileage Supplemental FTP
testing conducted under § 86.1845–
04(b)(5)(i). Testing conducted at high
altitude under the requirements of
§ 86.1845–04(c) will be included in
determining if a test group meets the
criteria triggering the testing required
under this section.
*
*
*
*
*
■ 65. Section 86.1848–10 is amended by
revising paragraph (c)(9) to read as
follows:
§ 86.1848–10 Compliance with emission
standards for the purpose of certification.
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*
*
*
*
*
(c) * * *
(9) For 2012 and later model year
LDVs, LDTs, and MDPVs, all certificates
of conformity issued are conditional
upon compliance with all provisions of
§§ 86.1818 and 86.1865 both during and
after model year production. Similarly,
for 2014 and later model year HDV, and
other HDV subject to standards under
§ 86.1819, all certificates of conformity
issued are conditional upon compliance
with all provisions of §§ 86.1819 and
86.1865 both during and after model
year production. The manufacturer
bears the burden of establishing to the
satisfaction of the Administrator that the
terms and conditions upon which the
certificate(s) was (were) issued were
satisfied. For recall and warranty
purposes, vehicles not covered by a
certificate of conformity will continue to
be held to the standards stated or
referenced in the certificate that
otherwise would have applied to the
vehicles.
(i) Failure to meet the fleet average
CO2 requirements will be considered a
failure to satisfy the terms and
conditions upon which the certificate(s)
was (were) issued and the vehicles sold
in violation of the fleet average CO2
standard will not be covered by the
certificate(s). The vehicles sold in
violation will be determined according
to § 86.1865–12(k)(8).
(ii) Failure to comply fully with the
prohibition against selling credits that
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are not generated or that are not
available, as specified in § 86.1865–12,
will be considered a failure to satisfy the
terms and conditions upon which the
certificate(s) was (were) issued and the
vehicles sold in violation of this
prohibition will not be covered by the
certificate(s).
(iii) For manufacturers using the
conditional exemption under § 86.1801–
12(k), failure to fully comply with the
fleet production thresholds that
determine eligibility for the exemption
will be considered a failure to satisfy the
terms and conditions upon which the
certificate(s) was (were) issued and the
vehicles sold in violation of the stated
sales and/or production thresholds will
not be covered by the certificate(s).
(iv) For manufacturers that are
determined to be operationally
independent under § 86.1838–01(d),
failure to report a material change in
their status within 60 days as required
by § 86.1838–01(d)(2) will be considered
a failure to satisfy the terms and
conditions upon which the certificate(s)
was (were) issued and the vehicles sold
in violation of the operationally
independent criteria will not be covered
by the certificate(s).
(v) For manufacturers subject to an
alternative fleet average greenhouse gas
emission standard approved under
§ 86.1818–12(g), failure to comply with
the annual sales thresholds that are
required to maintain use of those
standards, including the thresholds
required for new entrants into the U.S.
market, will be considered a failure to
satisfy the terms and conditions upon
which the certificate(s) was (were)
issued and the vehicles sold in violation
of stated sales and/or production
thresholds will not be covered by the
certificate(s).
*
*
*
*
*
■ 66. Section 86.1853–01 is revised to
read as follows:
§ 86.1853–01
Certification hearings.
If a manufacturer’s request for a
hearing is approved, EPA will follow
the hearing procedures specified in 40
CFR part 1068, subpart G.
■ 67. Section 86.1854–12 is amended by
adding paragraph (b)(5) to read as
follows:
§ 86.1854–12
Prohibited acts.
*
*
*
*
*
(b) * * *
(5) Certified motor vehicles and motor
vehicle engines and their emission
control devices must remain in their
certified configuration even if they are
used solely for competition or if they
become nonroad vehicles or engines;
anyone modifying a certified motor
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40565
vehicle or motor vehicle engine for any
reason is subject to the tampering and
defeat device prohibitions of paragraph
(a)(3) of this section and 42 U.S.C.
7522(a)(3).
■ 68. Section 86.1862–04 is amended by
revising paragraph (d) to read as
follows:
§ 86.1862–04 Maintenance of records and
submittal of information relevant to
compliance with fleet-average standards.
*
*
*
*
*
(d) Notice of opportunity for hearing.
Any voiding of the certificate under
paragraph (a)(6) of this section will be
made only after EPA has offered the
manufacturer concerned an opportunity
for a hearing conducted in accordance
with 40 CFR part 1068, subpart G and,
if a manufacturer requests such a
hearing, will be made only after an
initial decision by the Presiding Officer.
■ 69. Section 86.1865–12 is revised to
read as follows:
§ 86.1865–12 How to comply with the fleet
average CO2 standards.
(a) Applicability. (1) Unless otherwise
exempted under the provisions of
paragraph (d) of this section, CO2 fleet
average exhaust emission standards of
this subpart apply to:
(i) 2012 and later model year
passenger automobiles and light trucks.
(ii) Heavy-duty vehicles subject to
standards under § 86.1819.
(iii) Vehicles imported by ICIs as
defined in 40 CFR 85.1502.
(2) The terms ‘‘passenger automobile’’
and ‘‘light truck’’ as used in this section
have the meanings given in § 86.1818–
12.
(b) Useful life requirements. Full
useful life requirements for CO2
standards are defined in §§ 86.1818 and
86.1819. There is not an intermediate
useful life standard for CO2 emissions.
(c) Altitude. Greenhouse gas emission
standards apply for testing at both lowaltitude conditions and at high-altitude
conditions, as described in §§ 86.1818
and 86.1819.
(d) Small volume manufacturer
certification procedures. (1) Passenger
automobiles and light trucks.
Certification procedures for small
volume manufacturers are provided in
§ 86.1838. Small businesses meeting
certain criteria may be exempted from
the greenhouse gas emission standards
in § 86.1818 according to the provisions
of § 86.1801–12(j) or (k).
(2) Heavy-duty vehicles. HDV
manufacturers that qualify as small
businesses are not subject to the Phase
1 greenhouse gas standards of this
subpart as specified in § 86.1819–
14(k)(5).
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(e) CO2 fleet average exhaust emission
standards. The fleet average standards
referred to in this section are the
corporate fleet average CO2 standards
for passenger automobiles and light
trucks set forth in § 86.1818–12(c) and
(e), and for HDV in § 86.1819. Each
manufacturer must comply with the
applicable CO2 fleet average standard on
a production-weighted average basis, for
each separate averaging set, at the end
of each model year, using the procedure
described in paragraph (j) of this
section. The fleet average CO2 standards
applicable in a given model year are
calculated separately for passenger
automobiles and light trucks for each
manufacturer and each model year
according to the provisions in § 86.1818.
Calculate the HDV fleet average CO2
standard in a given model year as
described in § 86.1819–14(a).
(f) In-use CO2 standards. In-use CO2
exhaust emission standards are
provided in § 86.1818–12(d) for
passenger automobiles and light trucks
and in § 86.1819–14(b) for HDV.
(g) Durability procedures and method
of determining deterioration factors
(DFs). Deterioration factors for CO2
exhaust emission standards are
provided in § 86.1823–08(m) for
passenger automobiles and light trucks
and in § 86.1819–14(d)(5) for HDV.
(h) Vehicle test procedures. (1) The
test procedures for demonstrating
compliance with CO2 exhaust emission
standards are described at § 86.101 and
40 CFR part 600, subpart B.
(2) Testing to determine compliance
with CO2 exhaust emission standards
must be on a loaded vehicle weight
(LVW) basis for passenger automobiles
and light trucks (including MDPV), and
on an adjusted loaded vehicle weight
(ALVW) basis for non-MDPV heavyduty vehicles.
(3) Testing for the purpose of
providing certification data is required
only at low-altitude conditions. If
hardware and software emission control
strategies used during low-altitude
condition testing are not used similarly
across all altitudes for in-use operation,
the manufacturer must include a
statement in the application for
certification, in accordance with
§ 86.1844–01(d)(11), stating what the
different strategies are and why they are
used.
(i) Calculating fleet average carbonrelated exhaust emissions for passenger
automobiles and light trucks. (1)
Manufacturers must compute separate
production-weighted fleet average
carbon-related exhaust emissions at the
end of the model year for passenger
automobiles and light trucks, using
actual production, where production
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means vehicles produced and delivered
for sale, and certifying model types to
standards as defined in § 86.1818–12.
The model type carbon-related exhaust
emission results determined according
to 40 CFR part 600, subpart F (in units
of grams per mile rounded to the nearest
whole number) become the certification
standard for each model type.
(2) Manufacturers must separately
calculate production-weighted fleet
average carbon-related exhaust
emissions levels for the following
averaging sets according to the
provisions of 40 CFR part 600, subpart
F:
(i) Passenger automobiles subject to
the fleet average CO2 standards
specified in § 86.1818–12(c)(2);
(ii) Light trucks subject to the fleet
average CO2 standards specified in
§ 86.1818–12(c)(3);
(iii) Passenger automobiles subject to
the Temporary Leadtime Allowance
Alternative Standards specified in
§ 86.1818–12(e), if applicable; and
(iv) Light trucks subject to the
Temporary Leadtime Allowance
Alternative Standards specified in
§ 86.1818–12(e), if applicable.
(j) Certification compliance and
enforcement requirements for CO2
exhaust emission standards. (1)
Compliance and enforcement
requirements are provided in this
section and § 86.1848–10(c)(9).
(2) The certificate issued for each test
group requires all model types within
that test group to meet the in-use
emission standards to which each
model type is certified. The in-use
standards for passenger automobiles and
light duty trucks (including MDPV) are
described in § 86.1818–12(d). The in-use
standards for non-MDPV heavy-duty
vehicles are described in § 86.1819–
14(b).
(3) Each manufacturer must comply
with the applicable CO2 fleet average
standard on a production-weighted
average basis, at the end of each model
year. Use the procedure described in
paragraph (i) of this section for
passenger automobiles and light trucks
(including MDPV). Use the procedure
described in § 86.1819(d)(9)(iv) for nonMDPV heavy-duty vehicles.
(4) Each manufacturer must comply
on an annual basis with the fleet average
standards as follows:
(i) Manufacturers must report in their
annual reports to the Agency that they
met the relevant corporate average
standard by showing that the applicable
production-weighted average CO2
emission levels are at or below the
applicable fleet average standards; or
(ii) If the production-weighted average
is above the applicable fleet average
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standard, manufacturers must obtain
and apply sufficient CO2 credits as
authorized under paragraph (k)(8) of
this section. A manufacturer must show
that they have offset any exceedance of
the corporate average standard via the
use of credits. Manufacturers must also
include their credit balances or deficits
in their annual report to the Agency.
(iii) If a manufacturer fails to meet the
corporate average CO2 standard for four
consecutive years, the vehicles causing
the corporate average exceedance will
be considered not covered by the
certificate of conformity (see paragraph
(k)(8) of this section). A manufacturer
will be subject to penalties on an
individual-vehicle basis for sale of
vehicles not covered by a certificate.
(iv) EPA will review each
manufacturer’s production to designate
the vehicles that caused the exceedance
of the corporate average standard. EPA
will designate as nonconforming those
vehicles in test groups with the highest
certification emission values first,
continuing until reaching a number of
vehicles equal to the calculated number
of noncomplying vehicles as determined
in paragraph (k)(8) of this section. In a
group where only a portion of vehicles
would be deemed nonconforming, EPA
will determine the actual
nonconforming vehicles by counting
backwards from the last vehicle
produced in that test group.
Manufacturers will be liable for
penalties for each vehicle sold that is
not covered by a certificate.
(k) Requirements for the CO2
averaging, banking and trading (ABT)
program. (1) A manufacturer whose CO2
fleet average emissions exceed the
applicable standard must complete the
calculation in paragraph (k)(4) of this
section to determine the size of its CO2
deficit. A manufacturer whose CO2 fleet
average emissions are less than the
applicable standard may complete the
calculation in paragraph (k)(4) of this
section to generate CO2 credits. In either
case, the number of credits or debits
must be rounded to the nearest whole
number.
(2) There are no property rights
associated with CO2 credits generated
under this subpart. Credits are a limited
authorization to emit the designated
amount of emissions. Nothing in this
part or any other provision of law
should be construed to limit EPA’s
authority to terminate or limit this
authorization through a rulemaking.
(3) Each manufacturer must comply
with the reporting and recordkeeping
requirements of paragraph (l) of this
section for CO2 credits, including early
credits. The averaging, banking and
trading program is enforceable through
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the certificate of conformity that allows
the manufacturer to introduce any
regulated vehicles into U.S. commerce.
(4) Credits are earned on the last day
of the model year. Manufacturers must
calculate, for a given model year and
separately for passenger automobiles,
light trucks, and heavy-duty vehicles,
the number of credits or debits it has
generated according to the following
equation rounded to the nearest
megagram:
CO2 Credits or Debits (Mg) = [(CO2
Standard ¥ Manufacturer’s
Production-Weighted Fleet Average
CO2 Emissions) × (Total Number of
Vehicles Produced) × (Mileage)] ÷
1,000,000
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Where:
CO2 Standard = the applicable standard for
the model year as determined by
§ 86.1818 or § 86.1819;
Manufacturer’s Production-Weighted Fleet
Average CO2 Emissions = average
calculated according to paragraph (i) of
this section;
Total Number of Vehicles Produced = the
number of vehicles domestically
produced plus those imported as defined
in § 600.511–08 of this chapter; and
Mileage = useful life value (in miles) for
HDV, and vehicle lifetime miles of
195,264 for passenger automobiles and
225,865 for light trucks.
(5) Determine total HDV debits and
credits for a model year as described in
§ 86.1819–14(d)(6). Determine total
passenger car and light truck debits and
credits for a model year as described in
this paragraph (k)(5). Total credits or
debits generated in a model year,
maintained and reported separately for
passenger automobiles and light trucks,
shall be the sum of the credits or debits
calculated in paragraph (k)(4) of this
section and any of the following credits,
if applicable, minus any CO2-equivalent
debits for N2O and/or CH4 calculated
according to the provisions of
§ 86.1818–12(f)(4):
(i) Air conditioning leakage credits
earned according to the provisions of
§ 86.1867–12(b).
(ii) Air conditioning efficiency credits
earned according to the provisions of
§ 86.1868–12(c).
(iii) Off-cycle technology credits
earned according to the provisions of
§ 86.1869–12(d).
(iv) Full size pickup truck credits
earned according to the provisions of
§ 86.1870–12(c).
(v) CO2-equivalent debits for N2O
and/or CH4 accumulated according to
the provisions of § 86.1818–12(f)(4).
(6) Unused CO2 credits generally
retain their full value through five
model years after the model year in
which they were generated. Credits
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remaining at the end of the fifth model
year after the model year in which they
were generated may not be used to
demonstrate compliance for later model
years. The following particular
provisions apply for passenger cars and
light trucks:
(i) Unused CO2 credits from the 2009
model year shall retain their full value
through the 2014 model year. Credits
from the 2009 model year that remain at
the end of the 2014 model year may not
be used to demonstrate compliance for
later model years.
(ii) Unused CO2 credits from the 2010
through 2015 model years shall retain
their full value through the 2021 model
year. Credits remaining from these
model years at the end of the 2021
model year may not be used to
demonstrate compliance for later model
years.
(7) Credits may be used as follows:
(i) Credits generated and calculated
according to the method in paragraphs
(k)(4) and (5) of this section may not be
used to offset deficits other than those
deficits accrued within the respective
averaging set, except that credits may be
transferred between the passenger
automobile and light truck fleets of a
given manufacturer. Credits may be
banked and used in a future model year
in which a manufacturer’s average CO2
level exceeds the applicable standard.
Credits may also be traded to another
manufacturer according to the
provisions in paragraph (k)(8) of this
section. Before trading or carrying over
credits to the next model year, a
manufacturer must apply available
credits to offset any deficit, where the
deadline to offset that credit deficit has
not yet passed. This paragraph (k)(7)(i)
applies for MDPV, but not for other
HDV.
(ii) The use of credits shall not change
Selective Enforcement Auditing or inuse testing failures from a failure to a
non-failure. The enforcement of the
averaging standard occurs through the
vehicle’s certificate of conformity as
described in paragraph (k)(8) of this
section. A manufacturer’s certificate of
conformity is conditioned upon
compliance with the averaging
provisions. The certificate will be void
ab initio if a manufacturer fails to meet
the corporate average standard and does
not obtain appropriate credits to cover
its shortfalls in that model year or
subsequent model years (see deficit
carry-forward provisions in paragraph
(k)(8) of this section).
(iii) The following provisions apply
for passenger automobiles and light
trucks under the Temporary Leadtime
Allowance Alternative Standards:
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(A) Credits generated by vehicles
subject to the fleet average CO2
standards specified in § 86.1818–12(c)
may only be used to offset a deficit
generated by vehicles subject to the
Temporary Leadtime Allowance
Alternative Standards specified in
§ 86.1818–12(e).
(B) Credits generated by a passenger
automobile or light truck averaging set
subject to the Temporary Leadtime
Allowance Alternative Standards
specified in § 86.1818–12(e)(4)(i) or (ii)
of this section may be used to offset a
deficit generated by an averaging set
subject to the Temporary Leadtime
Allowance Alternative Standards
through the 2015 model year, except
that manufacturers qualifying under the
provisions of § 86.1818–12(e)(3) may
use such credits to offset a deficit
generated by an averaging set subject to
the Temporary Leadtime Allowance
Alternative Standards through the 2016
model year.
(C) Credits generated by an averaging
set subject to the Temporary Leadtime
Allowance Alternative Standards
specified in § 86.1818–12(e)(4)(i) or (ii)
of this section may not be used to offset
a deficit generated by an averaging set
subject to the fleet average CO2
standards specified in § 86.1818–
12(c)(2) or (3) or otherwise transferred to
an averaging set subject to the fleet
average CO2 standards specified in
§ 86.1818–12(c)(2) or (3).
(D) Credits generated by vehicles
subject to the Temporary Leadtime
Allowance Alternative Standards
specified in § 86.1818–12(e)(4)(i) or (ii)
may be banked for use in a future model
year (to offset a deficit generated by an
averaging set subject to the Temporary
Leadtime Allowance Alternative
Standards). All such credits may not be
used to demonstrate compliance for
model year 2016 and later vehicles,
except that manufacturers qualifying
under the provisions of § 86.1818–
12(e)(3) may use such credits to offset a
deficit generated by an averaging set
subject to the Temporary Leadtime
Allowance Alternative Standards
through the 2016 model year.
(E) A manufacturer with any vehicles
subject to the Temporary Leadtime
Allowance Alternative Standards
specified in § 86.1818–12(e)(4)(i) or (ii)
of this section in a model year in which
that manufacturer also generates credits
with vehicles subject to the fleet average
CO2 standards specified in § 86.1818–
12(c) may not trade or bank credits
earned against the fleet average
standards in § 86.1818–12(c) for use in
a future model year.
(iv) Credits generated in the 2017
through 2020 model years under the
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provisions of § 86.1818–12(e)(3)(ii) may
not be traded or otherwise provided to
another manufacturer.
(v) Credits generated under any
alternative fleet average standards
approved under § 86.1818–12(g) may
not be traded or otherwise provided to
another manufacturer.
(8) The following provisions apply if
a manufacturer calculates that it has
negative credits (also called ‘‘debits’’ or
a ‘‘credit deficit’’) for a given model
year:
(i) The manufacturer may carry the
credit deficit forward into the next three
model years. Such a carry-forward may
only occur after the manufacturer
exhausts any supply of banked credits.
The deficit must be covered with an
appropriate number of credits that the
manufacturer generates or purchases by
the end of the third model year. Any
remaining deficit is subject to a voiding
of the certificate ab initio, as described
in this paragraph (k)(8). Manufacturers
are not permitted to have a credit deficit
for four consecutive years.
(ii) If the credit deficit is not offset
within the specified time period, the
number of vehicles not meeting the fleet
average CO2 standards (and therefore
not covered by the certificate) must be
calculated.
(A) Determine the negative credits for
the noncompliant vehicle category by
multiplying the total megagram deficit
by 1,000,000 and then dividing by the
mileage specified in paragraph (k)(4) of
this section.
(B) Divide the result by the fleet
average standard applicable to the
model year in which the debits were
first incurred and round to the nearest
whole number to determine the number
of vehicles not meeting the fleet average
CO2 standards.
(iii) EPA will determine the vehicles
not covered by a certificate because the
condition on the certificate was not
satisfied by designating vehicles in
those test groups with the highest
carbon-related exhaust emission values
first and continuing until reaching a
number of vehicles equal to the
calculated number of non-complying
vehicles as determined in this paragraph
(k)(8). The same approach applies for
HDV, except that EPA will make these
designations by ranking test groups
based on CO2 emission values. If these
calculations determines that only a
portion of vehicles in a test group
contribute to the debit situation, then
EPA will designate actual vehicles in
that test group as not covered by the
certificate, starting with the last vehicle
produced and counting backwards.
(iv)(A) If a manufacturer ceases
production of passenger automobiles,
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light trucks, or heavy-duty vehicles, the
manufacturer continues to be
responsible for offsetting any debits
outstanding within the required time
period. Any failure to offset the debits
will be considered a violation of
paragraph (k)(8)(i) of this section and
may subject the manufacturer to an
enforcement action for sale of vehicles
not covered by a certificate, pursuant to
paragraphs (k)(8)(ii) and (iii) of this
section.
(B) If a manufacturer is purchased by,
merges with, or otherwise combines
with another manufacturer, the
controlling entity is responsible for
offsetting any debits outstanding within
the required time period. Any failure to
offset the debits will be considered a
violation of paragraph (k)(8)(i) of this
section and may subject the
manufacturer to an enforcement action
for sale of vehicles not covered by a
certificate, pursuant to paragraphs
(k)(8)(ii) and (iii) of this section.
(v) For purposes of calculating the
statute of limitations, a violation of the
requirements of paragraph (k)(8)(i) of
this section, a failure to satisfy the
conditions upon which a certificate(s)
was issued and hence a sale of vehicles
not covered by the certificate, all occur
upon the expiration of the deadline for
offsetting debits specified in paragraph
(k)(8)(i) of this section.
(9) The following provisions apply to
CO2 credit trading:
(i) EPA may reject CO2 credit trades
if the involved manufacturers fail to
submit the credit trade notification in
the annual report.
(ii) A manufacturer may not sell
credits that are no longer valid for
demonstrating compliance based on the
model years of the subject vehicles, as
specified in paragraph (k)(6) of this
section.
(iii) In the event of a negative credit
balance resulting from a transaction,
both the buyer and seller are liable for
the credit shortfall. EPA may void ab
initio the certificates of conformity of all
test groups that generate or use credits
in such a trade.
(iv) (A) If a manufacturer trades a
credit that it has not generated pursuant
to paragraph (k) of this section or
acquired from another party, the
manufacturer will be considered to have
generated a debit in the model year that
the manufacturer traded the credit. The
manufacturer must offset such debits by
the deadline for the annual report for
that same model year.
(B) Failure to offset the debits within
the required time period will be
considered a failure to satisfy the
conditions upon which the certificate(s)
was issued and will be addressed
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pursuant to paragraph (k)(8) of this
section.
(v) A manufacturer may only trade
credits that it has generated pursuant to
paragraphs (k)(4) and (5) of this section
or acquired from another party.
(1) Maintenance of records and
submittal of information relevant to
compliance with fleet average CO2
standards—(1) Maintenance of records.
(i) Manufacturers producing any lightduty vehicles, light-duty trucks,
medium-duty passenger vehicles, or
other heavy-duty vehicles subject to the
provisions in this subpart must
establish, maintain, and retain all the
following information in adequately
organized records for each model year:
(A) Model year.
(B) Applicable fleet average CO2
standards for each averaging set as
defined in paragraph (i) of this section.
(C) The calculated fleet average CO2
value for each averaging set as defined
in paragraph (i) of this section.
(D) All values used in calculating the
fleet average CO2 values.
(ii) Manufacturers must establish,
maintain, and retain all the following
information in adequately organized
records for each vehicle produced that
is subject to the provisions in this
subpart:
(A) Model year.
(B) Applicable fleet average CO2
standard.
(C) EPA test group.
(D) Assembly plant.
(E) Vehicle identification number.
(F) Carbon-related exhaust emission
standard (automobile and light truck
only), N2O emission standard, and CH4
emission standard to which the vehicle
is certified.
(G) In-use carbon-related exhaust
emission standard for passenger
automobiles and light truck, and in-use
CO2 standard for HDV.
(H) Information on the point of first
sale, including the purchaser, city, and
state.
(iii) Manufacturers must retain all
required records for a period of eight
years from the due date for the annual
report. Records may be stored in any
format and on any media, as long as
manufacturers can promptly send EPA
organized written records in English if
requested by the Administrator.
Manufacturers must keep records
readily available as EPA may review
them at any time.
(iv) The Administrator may require
the manufacturer to retain additional
records or submit information not
specifically required by this section.
(v) Pursuant to a request made by the
Administrator, the manufacturer must
submit to the Administrator the
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information that the manufacturer is
required to retain.
(vi) EPA may void ab initio a
certificate of conformity for vehicles
certified to emission standards as set
forth or otherwise referenced in this
subpart for which the manufacturer fails
to retain the records required in this
section or to provide such information
to the Administrator upon request, or to
submit the reports required in this
section in the specified time period.
(2) Reporting. (i) Each manufacturer
must submit an annual report. The
annual report must contain for each
applicable CO2 standard, the calculated
fleet average CO2 value, all values
required to calculate the CO2 emissions
value, the number of credits generated
or debits incurred, all the values
required to calculate the credits or
debits, and the resulting balance of
credits or debits. For each applicable
alternative N2O and/or CH4 standard
selected under the provisions of
§ 86.1818–12(f)(3) for passenger
automobiles and light trucks (or
§ 86.1819–14(c) for HDV), the report
must contain the CO2-equivalent debits
for N2O and/or CH4 calculated
according to § 86.1818–12(f)(4) (or
§ 86.1819–14(c) for HDV) for each test
group and all values required to
calculate the number of debits incurred.
(ii) For each applicable fleet average
CO2 standard, the annual report must
also include documentation on all credit
transactions the manufacturer has
engaged in since those included in the
last report. Information for each
transaction must include all of the
following:
(A) Name of credit provider.
(B) Name of credit recipient.
(C) Date the trade occurred.
(D) Quantity of credits traded in
megagrams.
(E) Model year in which the credits
were earned.
(iii) Manufacturers calculating air
conditioning leakage and/or efficiency
credits under paragraph § 86.1871–12(b)
shall include the following information
for each model year and separately for
passenger automobiles and light trucks
and for each air conditioning system
used to generate credits:
(A) A description of the air
conditioning system.
(B) The leakage credit value and all
the information required to determine
this value.
(C) The total credits earned for each
averaging set, model year, and region, as
applicable.
(iv) Manufacturers calculating
advanced technology vehicle credits
under paragraph § 86.1871–12(c) shall
include the following information for
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each model year and separately for
passenger automobiles and light trucks:
(A) The number of each model type of
eligible vehicle sold.
(B) The cumulative model year
production of eligible vehicles starting
with the 2009 model year.
(C) The carbon-related exhaust
emission value by model type and
model year.
(v) Manufacturers calculating offcycle technology credits under
paragraph § 86.1871–12(d) shall
include, for each model year and
separately for passenger automobiles
and light trucks, all test results and data
required for calculating such credits.
(vi) Unless a manufacturer reports the
data required by this section in the
annual production report required
under § 86.1844–01(e) or the annual
report required under § 600.512–12 of
this chapter, a manufacturer must
submit an annual report for each model
year after production ends for all
affected vehicles produced by the
manufacturer subject to the provisions
of this subpart and no later than May 1
of the calendar year following the given
model year. Annual reports must be
submitted to: Director, Compliance
Division, U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency, 2000 Traverwood Dr., Ann
Arbor, Michigan 48105.
(vii) Failure by a manufacturer to
submit the annual report in the
specified time period for all vehicles
subject to the provisions in this section
is a violation of section 203(a)(1) of the
Clean Air Act (42 U.S.C. 7522(a)(1)) for
each applicable vehicle produced by
that manufacturer.
(viii) If EPA or the manufacturer
determines that a reporting error
occurred on an annual report previously
submitted to EPA, the manufacturer’s
credit or debit calculations will be
recalculated. EPA may void erroneous
credits, unless traded, and will adjust
erroneous debits. In the case of traded
erroneous credits, EPA must adjust the
selling manufacturer’s credit balance to
reflect the sale of such credits and any
resulting credit deficit.
(3) Notice of opportunity for hearing.
Any voiding of the certificate under
paragraph (l)(1)(vi) of this section will
be made only after EPA has offered the
affected manufacturer an opportunity
for a hearing conducted in accordance
with 40 CFR part 1068, subpart G, and,
if a manufacturer requests such a
hearing, will be made only after an
initial decision by the Presiding Officer.
■ 70. Section 86.1866–12 is amended by
adding introductory text and revising
paragraph (b) introductory text to read
as follows:
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§ 86.1866–12 CO2 credits for advanced
technology vehicles.
This section describes how to apply
CO2 credits for advanced technology
passenger automobiles and light trucks
(including MDPV). This section does
not apply for heavy-duty vehicles that
are not MDPV.
*
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*
*
(b) For electric vehicles, plug-in
hybrid electric vehicles, fuel cell
vehicles, dedicated natural gas vehicles,
and dual-fuel natural gas vehicles as
those terms are defined in § 86.1803–01,
that are certified and produced for U.S.
sale in the 2017 through 2021 model
years and that meet the additional
specifications in this section, the
manufacturer may use the production
multipliers in this paragraph (b) when
determining the manufacturer’s fleet
average carbon-related exhaust
emissions under § 600.510–12 of this
chapter. Full size pickup trucks eligible
for and using a production multiplier
are not eligible for the performancebased credits described in § 86.1870–
12(b).
*
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*
*
*
■ 71. Section 86.1867–12 is amended by
revising the introductory text to read as
follows:
§ 86.1867–12 CO2 credits for reducing
leakage of air conditioning refrigerant.
Manufacturers may generate credits
applicable to the CO2 fleet average
program described in § 86.1865–12 by
implementing specific air conditioning
system technologies designed to reduce
air conditioning refrigerant leakage over
the useful life of their passenger
automobiles and/or light trucks
(including MDPV); only the provisions
of paragraph (a) this section apply for
non-MDPV heavy-duty vehicles. Credits
shall be calculated according to this
section for each air conditioning system
that the manufacturer is using to
generate CO2 credits. Manufacturers
may also generate early air conditioning
refrigerant leakage credits under this
section for the 2009 through 2011 model
years according to the provisions of
§ 86.1871–12(b).
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■ 72. Section 86.1868–12 is amended by
revising the introductory text and
paragraphs (e)(5), (f)(1), (g)(1), and (g)(3)
introductory text to read as follows:
§ 86.1868–12 CO2 credits for improving the
efficiency of air conditioning systems.
Manufacturers may generate credits
applicable to the CO2 fleet average
program described in § 86.1865–12 by
implementing specific air conditioning
system technologies designed to reduce
air conditioning-related CO2 emissions
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over the useful life of their passenger
automobiles and/or light trucks
(including MDPV). The provisions of
this section do not apply for non-MDPV
heavy-duty vehicles. Credits shall be
calculated according to this section for
each air conditioning system that the
manufacturer is using to generate CO2
credits. Manufacturers may also
generate early air conditioning
efficiency credits under this section for
the 2009 through 2011 model years
according to the provisions of
§ 86.1871–12(b). For model years 2012
and 2013 the manufacturer may
determine air conditioning efficiency
credits using the requirements in
paragraphs (a) through (d) of this
section. For model years 2014 through
2016 the eligibility requirements
specified in either paragraph (e) or (f) of
this section must be met before an air
conditioning system is allowed to
generate credits. For model years 2017
through 2019 the eligibility
requirements specified in paragraph (f)
of this section must be met before an air
conditioning system is allowed to
generate credits. For model years 2020
and later the eligibility requirements
specified in paragraph (g) of this section
must be met before an air conditioning
system is allowed to generate credits.
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(e) * * *
(5) Air conditioning systems with
compressors that are solely powered by
electricity shall submit Air Conditioning
Idle Test Procedure data to be eligible to
generate credits in the 2014 and later
model years, but such systems are not
required to meet a specific threshold to
be eligible to generate such credits, as
long as the engine remains off for a
period of at least 2 cumulative minutes
during the air conditioning on portion
of the Idle Test Procedure in § 86.165–
12(d).
(f) * * *
(1) The manufacturer shall perform
the AC17 test specified in 40 CFR
1066.845 on each unique air
conditioning system design and vehicle
platform combination (as those terms
are defined in § 86.1803) for which the
manufacturer intends to accrue air
conditioning efficiency credits. The
manufacturer must test at least one
unique air conditioning system within
each vehicle platform in a model year,
unless all unique air conditioning
systems within a vehicle platform have
been previously tested. A unique air
conditioning system design is a system
with unique or substantially different
component designs or types and/or
system control strategies (e.g., fixed
displacement vs. variable displacement
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compressors, orifice tube vs.
thermostatic expansion valve, single vs.
dual evaporator, etc.). In the first year of
such testing, the tested vehicle
configuration shall be the highest
production vehicle configuration within
each platform. In subsequent model
years the manufacturer must test other
unique air conditioning systems within
the vehicle platform, proceeding from
the highest production untested system
until all unique air conditioning
systems within the platform have been
tested, or until the vehicle platform
experiences a major redesign. Whenever
a new unique air conditioning system is
tested, the highest production
configuration using that system shall be
the vehicle selected for testing. Air
conditioning system designs which have
similar cooling capacity, component
types, and control strategies, yet differ
in terms of compressor pulley ratios or
condenser or evaporator surface areas
will not be considered to be unique
system designs. The test results from
one unique system design may represent
all variants of that design.
Manufacturers must use good
engineering judgment to identify the
unique air conditioning system designs
which will require AC17 testing in
subsequent model years. Results must
be reported separately for all four
phases (two phases with air
conditioning off and two phases with air
conditioning on) of the test to the
Environmental Protection Agency, and
the results of the calculations required
in 40 CFR 1066.845 must also be
reported. In each subsequent model year
additional air conditioning system
designs, if such systems exist, within a
vehicle platform that is generating air
conditioning credits must be tested
using the AC17 procedure. When all
unique air conditioning system designs
within a platform have been tested, no
additional testing is required within that
platform, and credits may be carried
over to subsequent model years until
there is a significant change in the
platform design, at which point a new
sequence of testing must be initiated. No
more than one vehicle from each creditgenerating platform is required to be
tested in each model year.
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(g) * * *
(1) For each air conditioning system
(as defined in § 86.1803) selected by the
manufacturer to generate air
conditioning efficiency credits, the
manufacturer shall perform the AC17
Air Conditioning Efficiency Test
Procedure specified in 40 CFR 1066.845,
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according to the requirements of this
paragraph (g).
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(3) For the first model year for which
an air conditioning system is expected
to generate credits, the manufacturer
must select for testing the projected
highest-selling configuration within
each combination of vehicle platform
and air conditioning system (as those
terms are defined in § 86.1803). The
manufacturer must test at least one
unique air conditioning system within
each vehicle platform in a model year,
unless all unique air conditioning
systems within a vehicle platform have
been previously tested. A unique air
conditioning system design is a system
with unique or substantially different
component designs or types and/or
system control strategies (e.g., fixeddisplacement vs. variable displacement
compressors, orifice tube vs.
thermostatic expansion valve, single vs.
dual evaporator, etc.). In the first year of
such testing, the tested vehicle
configuration shall be the highest
production vehicle configuration within
each platform.
In subsequent model years the
manufacturer must test other unique air
conditioning systems within the vehicle
platform, proceeding from the highest
production untested system until all
unique air conditioning systems within
the platform have been tested, or until
the vehicle platform experiences a major
redesign. Whenever a new unique air
conditioning system is tested, the
highest production configuration using
that system shall be the vehicle selected
for testing. Credits may continue to be
generated by the air conditioning system
installed in a vehicle platform provided
that:
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■ 73. Section 86.1869–12 is amended by
adding introductory text and revising
paragraphs (b)(2) introductory text,
(b)(4)(ii), and (f) to read as follows:
§ 86.1869–12 CO2 credits for off-cycle CO2reducing technologies.
This section describes how
manufacturers may generate credits for
off-cycle CO2-reducing technologies.
The provisions of this section do not
apply for non-MDPV heavy-duty
vehicles, except that § 86.1819–
14(d)(13) describes how to apply
paragraphs (c) and (d) this section for
those vehicles.
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(b) * * *
(2) The maximum allowable decrease
in the manufacturer’s combined
passenger automobile and light truck
fleet average CO2 emissions attributable
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to use of the default credit values in
paragraph (b)(1) of this section is 10
grams per mile. If the total of the CO2
g/mi credit values from paragraph (b)(1)
of this section does not exceed 10 g/mi
for any passenger automobile or light
truck in a manufacturer’s fleet, then the
total off-cycle credits may be calculated
according to paragraph (f) of this
section. If the total of the CO2 g/mi
credit values from paragraph (b)(1) of
this section exceeds 10 g/mi for any
passenger automobile or light truck in a
manufacturer’s fleet, then the gram per
mile decrease for the combined
passenger automobile and light truck
fleet must be determined according to
paragraph (b)(2)(i) of this section to
determine whether the 10 g/mi
limitation has been exceeded.
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(4) * * *
(ii) High efficiency exterior lighting
means a lighting technology that, when
installed on the vehicle, is expected to
reduce the total electrical demand of the
exterior lighting system when compared
to conventional lighting systems. To be
eligible for this credit, the high
efficiency lighting must be installed in
one or more of the following lighting
components: Low beam, high beam,
parking/position, front and rear turn
signals, front and rear side markers,
taillights, and/or license plate lighting.
*
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*
(f) Calculation of total off-cycle
credits. Total off-cycle credits in
Megagrams of CO2 (rounded to the
nearest whole number) shall be
calculated separately for passenger
automobiles and light trucks according
to the following formula:
Total Credits (Megagrams) = (Credit ×
Production × VLM) ÷ 1,000,000
Where:
Credit = the credit value in grams per mile
determined in paragraph (b), (c) or (d) of
this section.
Production = The total number of passenger
automobiles or light trucks, whichever is
applicable, produced with the off-cycle
technology to which to the credit value
determined in paragraph (b), (c), or (d) of
this section applies.
VLM = vehicle lifetime miles, which for
passenger automobiles shall be 195,264
and for light trucks shall be 225,865.
74. Section 86.1870–12 is amended by
revising the section heading,
introductory text, and paragraph (a)
introductory text and adding paragraph
(a)(3) to read as follows:
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§ 86.1870–12 CO2 credits for qualifying
full-size light pickup trucks.
Full-size pickup trucks may be
eligible for additional credits based on
the implementation of hybrid
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technologies or on exhaust emission
performance, as described in this
section. Credits may be generated under
either paragraph (a) or (b) of this section
for a qualifying pickup truck, but not
both. The provisions of this section do
not apply for heavy-duty vehicles.
(a) Credits for implementation of
hybrid electric technology. Full size
pickup trucks that implement hybrid
electric technologies may be eligible for
an additional credit under this
paragraph (a). Pickup trucks earning the
credits under this paragraph (a) may not
earn the credits described in paragraph
(b) of this section. To claim this credit,
the manufacturer must measure the
recovered energy over the Federal Test
Procedure according to 40 CFR 600.116–
12(d) to determine whether a vehicle is
a mild or strong hybrid electric vehicle.
To provide for EPA testing, the vehicle
must be able to broadcast battery pack
voltage via an on-board diagnostics
parameter ID channel.
*
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*
(3) If you produce both mild and
strong hybrid electric full size pickup
trucks but do not qualify for credits
under paragraph (a)(1) or (2) of this
section, your hybrid electric full size
pickup trucks may be eligible for a
credit of 10 grams/mile. To receive this
credit in a given model year, you must
produce a quantity of hybrid electric
full size pickup trucks such that the
proportion of combined mild and strong
full size hybrid electric pickup trucks
produced in a model year, when
compared to your total production of
full size pickup trucks, is not less than
the required minimum percentages
specified in paragraph (a)(1) of this
section.
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■ 75. Section 86.1871–12 is amended by
revising the introductory text and
paragraphs (a) introductory text, (b)(1),
and (d) to read as follows:
§ 86.1871–12
programs.
Optional early CO2 credit
Manufacturers may optionally
generate CO2 credits in the 2009 through
2011 model years for use in the 2012
and later model years subject to EPA
approval and to the provisions of this
section. The provisions of § 86.1819–
14(j)(1) apply instead of the provisions
of this section for non-MDPV heavyduty vehicles. Manufacturers may
generate early fleet average credits, air
conditioning leakage credits, air
conditioning efficiency credits, early
advanced technology credits, and early
off-cycle technology credits.
Manufacturers generating any credits
under this section must submit an early
credits report to the Administrator as
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40571
required in this section. The terms
‘‘sales’’ and ‘‘sold’’ as used in this
section shall mean vehicles produced
for U.S. sale, where ‘‘U.S.’’ means the
states and territories of the United
States. The expiration date of unused
CO2 credits is based on the model year
in which the credits are earned, as
described in § 86.1865–12(k)(6).
(a) Early fleet average CO2 reduction
credits. Manufacturers may optionally
generate credits for reductions in their
fleet average CO2 emissions achieved in
the 2009 through 2011 model years. To
generate early fleet average CO2
reduction credits, manufacturers must
select one of the four pathways
described in paragraphs (a)(1) through
(4) of this section. The manufacturer
may select only one pathway, and that
pathway must remain in effect for the
2009 through 2011 model years. Fleet
average credits (or debits) must be
calculated and reported to EPA for each
model year under each selected
pathway.
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*
(b) Early air conditioning leakage and
efficiency credits. (1) Manufacturers
may optionally generate air
conditioning refrigerant leakage credits
according to the provisions of § 86.1867
and/or air conditioning efficiency
credits according to the provisions of
§ 86.1868 in model years 2009 through
2011. Credits must be tracked by model
type and model year.
*
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*
(d) Early off-cycle technology credits.
Manufacturers may optionally generate
credits for the implementation of certain
CO2-reducing technologies according to
the provisions of § 86.1869 in model
years 2009 through 2011. Credits must
be tracked by model type and model
year.
*
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Subpart T—Manufacturer-Run In-Use
Testing Program for Heavy-Duty Diesel
Engines
76. Section 86.1910 is amended by
revising paragraph (i) to read as follows:
■
§ 86.1910 How must I prepare and test my
in-use engines?
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*
(i) You may count a vehicle as
meeting the vehicle-pass criteria
described in § 86.1912 if a shift day of
testing or two-shift days of testing (with
the requisite non-idle/idle operation
time as in paragraph (g) of this section),
or if the extended testing you elected
under paragraph (h) of this section does
not generate a single valid NTE
sampling event, as described in
§ 86.1912(b). Count the vehicle towards
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meeting your testing requirements
under this subpart.
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■ 77. Section 86.1912 is revised to read
as follows:
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§ 86.1912 How do I determine whether an
engine meets the vehicle-pass criteria?
In general, the average emissions for
each regulated pollutant must remain at
or below the NTE threshold in
paragraph (a) of this section for at least
90 percent of the valid NTE sampling
events, as defined in paragraph (b) of
this section. For 2007 through 2009
model year engines, the average
emissions from every NTE sampling
event must also remain below the NTE
thresholds in paragraph (g)(2) of this
section. Perform the following steps to
determine whether an engine meets the
vehicle-pass criteria:
(a) Determine the NTE threshold for
each pollutant subject to an NTE
standard by adding all three of the
following terms and rounding the result
to the same number of decimal places as
the applicable NTE standard:
(1) The applicable NTE standard.
(2) The in-use compliance testing
margin specified in § 86.007–11(h), if
any.
(3) An accuracy margin for portable
in-use equipment when testing is
performed under the special provisions
of § 86.1930, depending on the
pollutant, as follows:
(i) NMHC: 0.17 g/hp·hr.
(ii) CO: 0.60 g/hp·hr.
(iii) NOX: 0.50 g/hp·hr.
(iv) PM: 0.10 g/hp·hr.
(v) NOX + NMHC: 0.67 g/hp·hr.
(4) Accuracy margins for portable inuse equipment when testing is not
performed under the special provisions
of § 86.1930 for 2007 through 2009
model year engine families that are
selected for testing in any calendar year
as follows:
(i) NMHC using the emission
calculation method specified in 40 CFR
1065.650(a)(1): 0.02 g/hp·hr.
(ii) NMHC using the emission
calculation method specified in 40 CFR
1065.650(a)(3): 0.01 g/hp·hr.
(iii) NMHC using an alternative
emission calculation method we
approve under 40 CFR
1065.915(d)(5)(iv): 0.01 g/hp·hr.
(iv) CO using the emission calculation
method specified in 40 CFR
1065.650(a)(1): 0.5 g/hp·hr.
(v) CO using the emission calculation
method specified in 40 CFR
1065.650(a)(3): 0.25 g/hp·hr.
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(vi) CO using an alternative emission
calculation method we approve under
40 CFR 1065.915(d)(5)(iv): 0.25 g/hp·hr.
(vii) NOX using the emission
calculation method specified in 40 CFR
1065.650(a)(1): 0.45 g/hp·hr.
(viii) NOX using the emission
calculation method specified in 40 CFR
1065.650(a)(3): 0.15 g/hp·hr.
(ix) NOX using an alternative emission
calculation method we approve under
40 CFR 1065.915(d)(5)(iv): 0.15 g/hp·hr.
(x) NOX + NMHC using the emission
calculation method specified in 40 CFR
1065.650(a)(1): 0.47 g/hp·hr.
(xi) NOX + NMHC using the emission
calculation method specified in 40 CFR
1065.650(a)(3): 0.16 g/hp·hr.
(xii) NOX + NMHC using an
alternative emission calculation method
we approve under 40 CFR
1065.915(d)(5)(iv): 0.16 g/hp·hr.
(xiii) PM: 0.006 g/hp·hr.
(5) Accuracy margins for portable inuse equipment when testing is not
performed under the special provisions
of § 86.1930 for 2010 or later model year
engines families that are selected for
testing in any calendar year as follows:
(i) NMHC using any emission
calculation method specified in 40 CFR
1065.650(a) or an alternative emission
calculation method we approve under
40 CFR 1065.915(d)(5)(iv): 0.01 g/hp·hr.
(ii) CO using any emission calculation
method specified in 40 CFR 1065.650(a)
or an alternative emission calculation
method we approve under 40 CFR
1065.915(d)(5)(iv): 0.25 g/hp·hr.
(iii) NOX using any emission
calculation method specified in 40 CFR
1065.650(a) or an alternative emission
calculation method we approve under
40 CFR 1065.915(d)(5)(iv): 0.15 g/hp·hr.
(iv) PM: 0.006 g/hp·hr.
(b) For the purposes of this subpart,
a valid NTE sampling event consists of
at least 30 seconds of continuous
operation in the NTE control area. An
NTE event begins when the engine starts
to operate in the NTE control area and
continues as long as engine operation
remains in this area (see § 86.1370).
When determining a valid NTE
sampling event, exclude all engine
operation in approved NTE limited
testing regions under § 86.1370–
2007(b)(6) and any approved NTE
deficiencies under § 86.007–11(a)(4)(iv).
Engine operation in the NTE control
area of less than 30 contiguous seconds
does not count as a valid NTE sampling
event; operating periods of less than 30
seconds in the NTE control area, but
outside of any allowed deficiency area
or limited testing region, will not be
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added together to make a 30 second or
longer event. Exclude any portion of a
sampling event that would otherwise
exceed the 5.0 percent limit for the
time-weighted carve-out defined in
§ 86.1370–2007(b)(7). For EGR-equipped
engines, exclude any operation that
occurs during the cold-temperature
operation defined by the equations in
§ 86.1370–2007(f)(1).
(c) Calculate the average emission
level for each pollutant over each valid
NTE sampling event as specified in 40
CFR part 1065, subpart G, using each
NTE event as an individual test interval.
This should include valid NTE events
from all days of testing.
(d) If the engine has an open
crankcase, account for these emissions
by adding 0.00042 g/hp·hr to the PM
emission result for every NTE event.
(e) Calculate a time-weighted vehiclepass ratio (Rpass) for each pollutant. To
do this, first sum the time from each
valid NTE sampling event whose
average emission level is at or below the
NTE threshold for that pollutant, then
divide this value by the sum of the
engine operating time from all valid
NTE events for that pollutant. Round
the resulting vehicle-pass ratio to two
decimal places.
(1) Calculate the time-weighted
vehicle-pass ratio for each pollutant as
follows:
Where:
npass = the number of valid sampling events
for which the average emission level is
at or below the NTE threshold.
ntotal = the total number of valid NTE
sampling events.
(2) For both the numerator and the
denominator of the vehicle-pass ratio,
use the smallest of the following values
for determining the duration, t, of any
NTE sampling event:
(i) The measured time in the NTE
zone that is valid for an NTE sampling
event.
(ii) 600 seconds.
(iii) 10 times the length of the shortest
valid NTE sampling event for all testing
with that engine.
(f) The following example illustrates
how to select the duration of NTE
sampling events for calculations, as
described in paragraph (f) of this
section:
E:\FR\FM\13JYP2.SGM
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1
2
3
4
5
........................
........................
........................
........................
........................
45
168
605
490
65
No .................................................................................................................................
No .................................................................................................................................
Yes. Use 10 times shortest valid NTE .........................................................................
Yes. Use 10 times shortest valid NTE .........................................................................
No .................................................................................................................................
(g) Engines meet the vehicle-pass
criteria under this section if they meet
both of the following criteria:
(1) The vehicle-pass ratio calculated
according to paragraph (e) of this
section must be at least 0.90 for each
pollutant.
(2) For model year 2007 through 2009
engines, emission levels from every
valid NTE sampling event must be less
than 2.0 times the NTE thresholds
calculated according to paragraph (a) of
this section for all pollutants, except
that engines certified to a NOX FEL at
or below 0.50 g/hp·hr may meet the
vehicle-pass criteria for NOX if
measured NOX emissions from every
valid NTE sample are less than either
2.0 times the NTE threshold for NOX or
2.0 g/hp·hr, whichever is greater.
■ 78. Section 86.1920 is amended by
revising paragraph (b) introductory text
to read as follows:
§ 86.1920 What in-use testing information
must I report to EPA?
*
*
*
*
*
(b) Within 45 days after the end of
each calendar quarter, send us reports
containing the test data from each
engine for which testing was completed
during the calendar quarter.
Alternatively, you may separately send
us the test data within 30 days after you
complete testing for an engine. If you
request it, we may allow additional time
to send us this information. Once you
send us information under this section,
you need not send that information
again in later reports. Prepare your test
reports as follows:
*
*
*
*
*
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Appendix I to Part 86—[Amended]
■ 79. Appendix I to part 86 is amended
by removing paragraph (f)(3).
PART 600—FUEL ECONOMY AND
GREENHOUSE GAS EXHAUST
EMISSIONS OF MOTOR VEHICLES
80. The authority citation for part 600
continues to read as follows:
■
VerDate Sep<11>2014
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Duration used
in calculations
(seconds)
Duration limit applied?
Jkt 235001
Authority: 49 U.S.C. 32901–23919q, Pub.
L. 109–58.
Subpart A—General Provisions
81. Section 600.002 is amended by
revising the definitions for ‘‘Engine
code’’, ‘‘Subconfiguration’’,
‘‘Transmission class’’, and ‘‘Vehicle
configuration’’ to read as follows:
■
§ 600.002
Definitions.
*
*
*
*
*
Engine code means one of the
following:
(1) For LDV, LDT, and MDPV, engine
code means a unique combination,
within an engine-system combination
(as defined in § 86.1803 of this chapter),
of displacement, fuel injection (or
carburetion or other fuel delivery
system), calibration, distributor
calibration, choke calibration, auxiliary
emission control devices, and other
engine and emission control system
components specified by the
Administrator. For electric vehicles,
engine code means a unique
combination of manufacturer, electric
traction motor, motor configuration,
motor controller, and energy storage
device.
(2) For HDV, engine code has the
meaning given in § 86.1819–14(d)(12).
*
*
*
*
*
Subconfiguration means one of the
following:
(1) For LDV, LDT, and MDPV,
subconfiguration means a unique
combination within a vehicle
configuration of equivalent test weight,
road-load horsepower, and any other
operational characteristics or parameters
which the Administrator determines
may significantly affect fuel economy or
CO2 emissions within a vehicle
configuration.
(2) For HDV, subconfiguration has the
meaning given in § 86.1819–14(d)(12).
*
*
*
*
*
Transmission class means a group of
transmissions having the following
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45
168
450
450
65
common features: Basic transmission
type (e.g., automatic, manual, automated
manual, semi-automatic, or
continuously variable); number of
forward gears used in fuel economy
testing (e.g., manual four-speed, threespeed automatic, two-speed semiautomatic); drive system (e.g., front
wheel drive, rear wheel drive; four
wheel drive), type of overdrive, if
applicable (e.g., final gear ratio less than
1.00, separate overdrive unit); torque
converter type, if applicable (e.g., nonlockup, lockup, variable ratio); and
other transmission characteristics that
may be determined to be significant by
the Administrator.
*
*
*
*
*
Vehicle configuration means one of
the following:
(1) For LDV, LDT, and MDPV, vehicle
configuration means a unique
combination of basic engine, engine
code, inertia weight class, transmission
configuration, and axle ratio within a
base level.
(2) For HDV, vehicle configuration has
the meaning given for ‘‘configuration’’
in § 86.1819–14(d)(12).
Subpart B—Fuel Economy and
Carbon-Related Exhaust Emission Test
Procedures
82. Section 600.113–12 is amended by
revising paragraphs (m), (n)
introductory text, (n)(2), and (n)(3) and
adding paragraph (o) to read as follows:
■
§ 600.113–12 Fuel economy, CO2
emissions, and carbon-related exhaust
emission calculations for FTP, HFET, US06,
SC03 and cold temperature FTP tests.
*
*
*
*
*
(m)(1) For automobiles fueled with
liquefied petroleum gas and
automobiles designed to operate on
gasoline and liquefied petroleum gas,
the fuel economy in miles per gallon of
liquefied petroleum gas is to be
calculated using the following equation:
E:\FR\FM\13JYP2.SGM
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Duration of
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(seconds)
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Where:
mpge = miles per gasoline gallon equivalent
of liquefied petroleum gas.
CWFfuel = carbon weight fraction based on
the hydrocarbon constituents in the
liquefied petroleum gas fuel as obtained
in paragraph (f)(5) of this section and
rounded according to paragraph (g)(3) of
this section.
SG = Specific gravity of the fuel as
determined in paragraph (f)(5) of this
section and rounded according to
paragraph (g)(3) of this section.
3781.8 = Grams of H2O per gallon conversion
factor.
CWFHC = Carbon weight fraction of exhaust
hydrocarbon = CWFfuel as determined in
paragraph (f)(4) of this section and
rounded according to paragraph (f)(3) of
this section.
HC = Grams/mile HC as obtained in
paragraph (g)(2) of this section.
CO = Grams/mile CO as obtained in
paragraph (g)(2) of this section.
CO2 = Grams/mile CO2 as obtained in
paragraph (g)(2) of this section.
(2)(i) For automobiles fueled with
liquefied petroleum gas and
automobiles designed to operate on
gasoline and liquefied petroleum gas,
the carbon-related exhaust emissions in
grams per mile while operating on
liquefied petroleum gas is to be
calculated for 2012 and later model year
vehicles using the following equation
and rounded to the nearest 1 gram per
mile:
CREE = (CWFHC/0.273 × HC) + (1.571 ×
CO) + CO2
ebenthall on DSK3VPTVN1PROD with MISCELLANEOUS
Where:
CREE means the carbon-related exhaust
emission value as defined in § 600.002.
CWFHC = Carbon weight fraction of exhaust
hydrocarbon = CWFfuel as determined in
paragraph (f)(5) of this section and
rounded according to paragraph (g)(3) of
this section.
HC = Grams/mile HC as obtained in
paragraph (g)(2) of this section.
CO = Grams/mile CO as obtained in
paragraph (g)(2) of this section.
CO2 = Grams/mile CO2 as obtained in
paragraph (g)(2) of this section.
(ii) For manufacturers complying with
the fleet averaging option for N2O and
CH4 as allowed under § 86.1818 of this
chapter, the carbon-related exhaust
emissions in grams per mile for 2012
and later model year automobiles fueled
with liquefied petroleum gas and
automobiles designed to operate on
mixtures of gasoline and liquefied
petroleum gas while operating on
liquefied petroleum gas is to be
calculated using the following equation
and rounded to the nearest 1 gram per
mile:
CREE = [(CWFexHC/0.273) × NMHC] +
(1.571 × CO) + CO2 + (298 × N2O)
+ (25 × CH4)
Where:
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CREE means the carbon-related exhaust
emission value as defined in § 600.002.
CWFHC = Carbon weight fraction of exhaust
hydrocarbon = CWFfuel as determined in
paragraph (f)(5) of this section and
rounded according to paragraph (g)(3) of
this section.
NMHC = Grams/mile HC as obtained in
paragraph (g)(2) of this section.
CO = Grams/mile CO as obtained in
paragraph (g)(2) of this section.
CO2 = Grams/mile CO2 as obtained in
paragraph (g)(2) of this section.
N2O = Grams/mile N2O as obtained in
paragraph (g)(2) of this section.
CH4 = Grams/mile CH4 as obtained in
paragraph (g)(2) of this section.
(n) Manufacturers shall determine
CO2 emissions and carbon-related
exhaust emissions for electric vehicles,
fuel cell vehicles, and plug-in hybrid
electric vehicles according to the
provisions of this paragraph (n). Subject
to the limitations on the number of
vehicles produced and delivered for sale
as described in § 86.1866 of this chapter,
the manufacturer may be allowed to use
a value of 0 grams/mile to represent the
emissions of fuel cell vehicles and the
proportion of electric operation of a
electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid
electric vehicles that is derived from
electricity that is generated from sources
that are not onboard the vehicle, as
described in paragraphs (n)(1) through
(3) of this section. For purposes of
labeling under this part, the CO2
emissions for electric vehicles shall be
0 grams per mile. Similarly, for
purposes of labeling under this part, the
CO2 emissions for plug-in hybrid
electric vehicles shall be 0 grams per
mile for the proportion of electric
operation that is derived from electricity
that is generated from sources that are
not onboard the vehicle. For
manufacturers no longer eligible to use
0 grams per mile to represent electric
operation, and for all 2026 and later
model year electric vehicles, fuel cell
vehicles, and plug-in hybrid electric
vehicles, the provisions of this
paragraph (n) shall be used to determine
the non-zero value for CREE for
purposes of meeting the greenhouse gas
emission standards described in
§ 86.1818 of this chapter.
*
*
*
*
*
(2) For plug-in hybrid electric
vehicles the carbon-related exhaust
emissions in grams per mile is to be
calculated according to the provisions of
§ 600.116, except that the CREE for
charge-depleting operation shall be the
sum of the CREE associated with
gasoline consumption and the net
upstream CREE determined according to
paragraph (n)(1) of this section, rounded
to the nearest one gram per mile.
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(3) For 2012 and later model year fuel
cell vehicles, the carbon-related exhaust
emissions in grams per mile shall be
calculated using the method specified in
paragraph (n)(1) of this section, except
that CREEUP shall be determined
according to procedures established by
the Administrator under § 600.111–
08(f). As described in § 86.1866 of this
chapter the value of CREE may be set
equal to zero for a certain number of
2012 through 2025 model year fuel cell
vehicles.
(o) Equations for fuels other than
those specified in this section may be
used with advance EPA approval.
Alternate calculation methods for fuel
economy and carbon-related exhaust
emissions may be used in lieu of the
methods described in this section if
shown to yield equivalent or superior
results and if approved in advance by
the Administrator.
■ 83. Section 600.116–12 is amended as
follows:
■ a. By revising paragraph (c)(1)
introductory text.
■ b. By redesignating paragraphs (c)(2)
through (9) as paragraphs (c)(3) through
(10), respectively.
■ c. By adding a new paragraph (c)(2).
■ d. By revising newly redesignated
paragraph (c)(4).
■ e. By revising newly redesignated
paragraph (c)(5) introductory text.
■ f. By revising paragraphs (d)(1)(i)(C),
(d)(1)(ii), (d)(2)(ii), and (d)(3).
The revisions and addition read as
follows:
§ 600.116–12 Special procedures related to
electric vehicles and hybrid electric
vehicles.
*
*
*
*
*
(c) * * *
(1) To determine CREE values to
demonstrate compliance with GHG
standards, calculate composite values
representing combined operation during
charge-depleting and charge-sustaining
operation using the following utility
factors except as specified in this
paragraph (c):
*
*
*
*
*
(2) Determine fuel economy values to
demonstrate compliance with CAFE
standards as follows:
(i) For vehicles that do not qualify as
dual fueled automobiles under 49 CFR
538.5, determine fuel economy using
the utility factors described in
paragraph (c)(1) of this section. Do not
use the petroleum-equivalence factors
described in 10 CFR 474.3.
(ii) For vehicles that qualify as dual
fueled automobiles under 49 CFR 538.5,
determine fuel economy based on the
procedure described in paragraph
(c)(2)(i) of this section, or based on the
E:\FR\FM\13JYP2.SGM
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Pbrake = Paccel¥Proadload
Where:
Paccel = the value determined in paragraph
(d)(1)(i)(B) of this section;
Proadload = the value determined in paragraph
(d)(1)(i)(A) of this section; and
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Jkt 235001
(ii) The total maximum braking
energy (Ebrake) that could theoretically be
recovered is equal to the absolute value
of the sum of all the values of Pbrake
determined in paragraph (d)(1)(i)(C) of
this section, divided by 36000 (to
convert 10 Hz data to hours) and
rounded to the nearest 0.01 kilowatthours.
(2) * * *
(ii) At each sampling point where
current is flowing into the battery,
calculate the energy flowing into the
battery, in Watt-hours, as follows:
*
Where:
Et = the energy flowing into the battery, in
Watt-hours, at time t in the test;
It = the electrical current, in Amps, at time
t in the test; and
Vnominal = the nominal voltage of the hybrid
battery system determined according to
paragraph (d)(4) of this section.
*
*
*
*
*
(3) The percent of braking energy
recovered by a hybrid system relative to
the total available energy is determined
by the following equation, rounded to
the nearest one percent:
Where:
Erec = The actual total energy recovered, in
kilowatt-hours, as determined in
paragraph (d)(2) of this section; and
Ebrake = The theoretical maximum amount of
energy, in kilowatt-hours, that could be
recovered by a hybrid electric vehicle
over the FTP test cycle, as determined in
paragraph (d)(1) of this section.
*
*
*
*
84. Section 600.208–12 is amended by
revising paragraph (a)(2)(iii) to read as
follows:
§ 600.208–12 Calculation of FTP-based
and HFET-based fuel economy, CO2
emissions, and carbon-related exhaust
emissions for a model type.
(a) * * *
(2) * * *
(iii) All subconfigurations within the
new base level are represented by test
data in accordance with
§ 600.010(c)(1)(iii).
*
*
*
*
*
■ 85. Section 600.210–12 is amended by
revising paragraph (c)(2)(iv)(C) to read
as follows:
Fmt 4701
86. Section 600.510–12 is amended by
revising paragraph (h) to read as
follows:
■
§ 600.510–12 Calculation of average fuel
economy and average carbon-related
exhaust emissions.
*
*
*
*
*
(h) The increase in average fuel
economy determined in paragraph (c) of
this section attributable to dual fueled
automobiles is subject to a maximum
value that applies separately to each
category of automobile specified in
paragraph (a)(1) of this section. The
increase in average fuel economy
attributable to vehicles fueled by
electricity or, for model years 2016 and
later, by compressed natural gas, is not
subject to a maximum value. The
following maximum values apply under
this paragraph (h):
Model year
■
Frm 00439
Subpart F—Procedures for
Determining Manufacturer’s Average
Fuel Economy and Manufacturer’s
Average Carbon-Related Exhaust
Emissions
*
Subpart C—Procedures for Calculating
Fuel Economy and Carbon-Related
Exhaust Emission Values
PO 00000
*
*
*
*
(c) * * *
(2) * * *
(iv) * * *
(C) Calculate a composite city CO2
emission rate and a composite highway
CO2 emission rate by combining the
separate results for battery and engine
operation using the procedures
described in § 600.116. Use these values
to calculate the vehicle’s combined CO2
emissions as described in paragraph
(c)(2)(i) of this section.
*
*
*
*
*
Sfmt 4702
1993–2014 ................................
2015 ..........................................
2016 ..........................................
2017 ..........................................
2018 ..........................................
2019 ..........................................
2020 and later ..........................
Maximum
increase
(mpg)
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
(1) The Administrator shall calculate
the increase in average fuel economy to
determine if the maximum increase
provided in this paragraph (h) has been
reached. The Administrator shall
calculate the increase in average fuel
economy for each category of
automobiles specified in paragraph
(a)(1) of this section by subtracting the
average fuel economy values calculated
in accordance with this section,
assuming all alcohol dual fuel
automobiles are operated exclusively on
E:\FR\FM\13JYP2.SGM
13JYP2
EP13JY15.027
Calculate this value by dividing the
equivalent all-electric range determined
from the equation in § 86.1866–
12(b)(2)(ii) by the corresponding
measured Watt-hours of energy
consumed; apply the appropriate
petroleum-equivalence factor from 10
CFR 474.3 to convert Watt-hours to
gallons equivalent. Note that if vehicles
use no gasoline during charge-depleting
operation, MPGeelec is the same as the
charge-depleting fuel economy specified
in SAE J1711.
*
*
*
*
*
(4) You may calculate performance
values under paragraphs (c)(1) through
(3) of this section by combining phases
during FTP testing. For example, you
may treat the first 7.45 miles as a single
phase by adding the individual utility
factors for that portion of driving and
assigning emission levels to the
combined phase. Do this consistently
throughout a test run.
(5) Instead of the utility factors
specified in paragraphs (c)(1) through
(3) of this section, calculate utility
factors using the following equation for
vehicles whose maximum speed is less
than the maximum speed specified in
the driving schedule, where the
vehicle’s maximum speed is
determined, to the nearest 0.1 mph,
from observing the highest speed over
the first duty cycle (FTP, HFET, etc.):
*
*
*
*
*
(d) * * *
(1) * * *
(i) * * *
(C) Determine braking power in
kilowatts using the following equation.
Note that during braking events, Pbrake,
Paccel, and Proadload will all be negative
(i.e., resistive) forces on the vehicle.
§ 600.210–12 Calculation of fuel economy
and CO2 emission values for labeling.
EP13JY15.026
ebenthall on DSK3VPTVN1PROD with MISCELLANEOUS
Where:
MPGgas = The miles per gallon measured
while operating on gasoline during
charge-sustaining operation as
determined using the procedures of SAE
J1711 (incorporated by reference in
§ 600.011).
MPGeelec = The miles per gallon equivalent
measured while operating on electricity.
Pbrake = 0 if Paccel is greater than or equal to
Proadload.
EP13JY15.025
following equation, separately for city
and highway driving:
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gasoline (or diesel fuel), from the
average fuel economy values
determined in paragraph (c) of this
section. The difference is limited to the
maximum increase specified in this
paragraph (h).
(2) [Reserved]
*
*
*
*
*
PART 1033—CONTROL OF EMISSIONS
FROM LOCOMOTIVES
87. The authority citation for part
1033 continues to read as follows:
■
§ 1033.102 Transition to the standards
specified in this subpart.
Authority: 42 U.S.C. 7401–7671q.
Subpart A—Overview and Applicability
88. Section 1033.1 is amended by
revising paragraph (e) to read as follows:
■
§ 1033.1
Applicability.
*
*
*
*
*
(e) The provisions of this part apply
as specified for locomotives
manufactured or remanufactured on or
after July 7, 2008. See § 1033.102 to
determine whether the standards of this
part or the standards specified in
Appendix I of this part apply for model
years 2008 through 2012. For example,
for a locomotive that was originally
manufactured in 2007 and
remanufactured on April 10, 2014, the
provisions of this part begin to apply on
April 10, 2014.
■ 89. Section 1033.30 is revised to read
as follows:
§ 1033.30
Unless we specify otherwise, send all
reports and requests for approval to the
Designated Compliance Officer (see
§ 1033.901). See § 1033.925 for
additional reporting and recordkeeping
provisions.
Subpart B—Emission Standards and
Related Requirements
90. Section 1033.101 is amended by
revising paragraphs (f)(1)(ii) and (f)(2)(i)
and (iii) to read as follows:
■
Exhaust emission standards.
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*
*
*
*
*
(f) * * *
(1) * * *
(ii) Gaseous-fueled locomotives:
NMHC emissions. This includes dualfuel and flexible-fuel locomotives that
use a combination of a gaseous fuel and
a nongaseous fuel.
*
*
*
*
*
(2) * * *
(i) Certify your Tier 4 and later dieselfueled locomotives for operation with
only Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel (ULSD)
fuel. Use ULSD as the test fuel for these
locomotives. You may alternatively
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(a) Except as specified in
§ 1033.150(a), the Tier 0 and Tier 1
standards of § 1033.101 apply for new
locomotives beginning January 1, 2010,
except as specified in § 1033.150(a). The
Tier 0 and Tier 1 standards specified in
Appendix I of this part apply for earlier
model years.
(b) Except as specified in
§ 1033.150(a), the Tier 2 standards of
§ 1033.101 apply for new locomotives
beginning January 1, 2013. The Tier 2
standards specified in Appendix I of
this part apply for earlier model years.
(c) The Tier 3 and Tier 4 standards of
§ 1033.101 apply for the model years
specified in that section.
■ 92. Section 1033.120 is amended by
revising paragraph (b) to read as follows:
§ 1033.120 Emission-related warranty
requirements.
*
Submission of information.
§ 1033.101
certify Tier 4 and later locomotives
using Low Sulfur Diesel Fuel (LSD).
*
*
*
*
*
(iii) Certify your Tier 3 and earlier
diesel-fueled locomotives for operation
with either ULSD fuel or LSD fuel if
they do not include sulfur-sensitive
technology or if you demonstrate
compliance using an LSD test fuel
(including commercial LSD fuel).
*
*
*
*
*
■ 91. Section 1033.102 is revised to read
as follows:
*
*
*
*
(b) Warranty period. Except as
specified in this paragraph, the
minimum warranty period is one-third
of the useful life. Your emission-related
warranty must be valid for at least as
long as the minimum warranty periods
listed in this paragraph (b) in MW-hrs of
operation (or miles for Tier 0
locomotives not equipped with MW-hr
meters) and years, whichever comes
first. You may offer an emission-related
warranty more generous than we
require. The emission-related warranty
for the locomotive may not be shorter
than any basic mechanical warranty you
provide without charge for the
locomotive. Similarly, the emissionrelated warranty for any component
may not be shorter than any warranty
you provide without charge for that
component. This means that your
warranty may not treat emission-related
and nonemission-related defects
differently for any component. If you
provide an extended warranty to
individual owners for any components
covered in paragraph (c) of this section
for an additional charge, your emissionrelated warranty must cover those
components for those owners to the
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same degree. If the locomotive does not
record MW-hrs, we base the warranty
periods in this paragraph (b) only on
years. The warranty period begins when
the locomotive is placed into service, or
back into service after remanufacture.
*
*
*
*
*
■ 93. Section 1033.1135 is amended by
revising paragraph (b)(3) to read as
follows:
§ 1033.135
Labeling.
*
*
*
*
*
(b) * * *
(3) Label diesel-fueled locomotives
near the fuel inlet to identify the
allowable fuels, consistent with
§ 1033.101. For example, Tier 4
locomotives with sulfur sensitive
technology (or that otherwise require
ULSD for compliance) should be labeled
‘‘ULTRA LOW SULFUR DIESEL FUEL
ONLY’’. You do not need to label Tier
3 and earlier locomotives certified for
use with both LSD and ULSD.
*
*
*
*
*
Subpart C—Certifying Engine Families
94. Section 1033.201 is amended by
revising paragraphs (a) and (g) to read as
follows:
■
§ 1033.201 General requirements for
obtaining a certificate of conformity.
*
*
*
*
*
(a) You must send us a separate
application for a certificate of
conformity for each engine family. A
certificate of conformity is valid for new
production from the indicated effective
date, until the end of the model year for
which it is issued, which may not
extend beyond December 31 of that
year. No certificate will be issued after
December 31 of the model year. You
may amend your application for
certification after the end of the model
year in certain circumstances as
described in §§ 1033.220 and 1033.225.
You must renew your certification
annually for any locomotives you
continue to produce.
*
*
*
*
*
(g) We may require you to deliver
your test locomotives (including test
engines, as applicable) to a facility we
designate for our testing (see
§ 1033.235(c)). Alternatively, you may
choose to deliver another engine/
locomotive that is identical in all
material respects to the test locomotive,
or another engine/locomotive that we
determine can appropriately serve as an
emission-data locomotive for the engine
family.
*
*
*
*
*
■ 95. Section 1033.225 is amended by
revising the introductory text and
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adding paragraph (b)(4) to read as
follows:
§ 1033.225 Amending applications for
certification.
Before we issue you a certificate of
conformity, you may amend your
application to include new or modified
locomotive configurations, subject to the
provisions of this section. After we have
issued your certificate of conformity,
but before the end of the model year,
you may send us an amended
application requesting that we include
new or modified locomotive
configurations within the scope of the
certificate, subject to the provisions of
this section. Before the end of the model
year, you must also amend your
application if any changes occur with
respect to any information that is
included or should be included in your
application. For example, you must
amend your application if you
determine that your actual production
variation for an adjustable parameter
exceeds the tolerances specified in your
application. After the end of the model
year, you may amend your application
only to update maintenance instructions
as described in § 1033.220 or to modify
an FEL as described in paragraph (f) of
this section.
*
*
*
*
*
(b) * * *
(4) Include any other information
needed to make your application correct
and complete.
*
*
*
*
*
■ 96. Section 1033.235 is amended by
revising paragraphs (b), (c)(4), and (d)(1)
to read as follows:
§ 1033.235 Emission testing required for
certification.
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*
*
*
*
*
(b) Test your emission-data
locomotives using the procedures and
equipment specified in subpart F of this
part. In the case of dual-fuel
locomotives, measure emissions when
operating with each type of fuel for
which you intend to certify the
locomotive. In the case of flexible-fuel
locomotives, measure emissions when
operating with the fuel mixture that best
represents in-use operation or is most
likely to have the highest NOX
emissions, though you may ask us
instead to perform tests with both fuels
separately if you can show that
intermediate mixtures are not likely to
occur in use.
(c) * * *
(4) Before we test one of your
locomotives, we may calibrate it within
normal production tolerances for
anything we do not consider an
adjustable parameter. For example, this
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would apply for a parameter that is
subject to production variability because
it is adjustable during production, but is
not considered an adjustable parameter
(as defined in § 1033.901) because it is
permanently sealed.
(d) * * *
(1) The engine family from the
previous model year differs from the
current engine family only with respect
to model year, items identified in
§ 1033.225(a), or other factors not
related to emissions. We may waive this
criterion for differences we determine
not to be relevant.
*
*
*
*
*
■ 97. Section 1033.245 is amended by
revising the introductory text and
paragraph (b) introductory text and
adding paragraphs (b)(3) through (5) to
read as follows:
§ 1033.245
Deterioration factors.
Establish deterioration factors for each
pollutant to determine whether your
locomotives will meet emission
standards for each pollutant throughout
the useful life, as described in
§ 1033.240. Determine deterioration
factors as described in this section,
either with an engineering analysis,
with pre-existing test data, or with new
emission measurements. The
deterioration factors are intended to
reflect the deterioration expected to
result during the useful life of a
locomotive maintained as specified in
§ 1033.125. If you perform durability
testing, the maintenance that you may
perform on your emission-data
locomotive is limited to the
maintenance described in § 1033.125.
You may carry across a deterioration
factor from one engine family to another
consistent with good engineering
judgment.
*
*
*
*
*
(b) Apply deterioration factors as
follows:
*
*
*
*
*
(3) Sawtooth deterioration patterns.
The deterioration factors described in
paragraphs (b)(1) and (2) of this section
assume that the highest useful life
emissions occur either at the end of
useful life or at the low-hour test point.
The provisions of this paragraph (b)(3)
apply where good engineering judgment
indicates that the highest emissions over
the useful life will occur between these
two points. For example, emissions may
increase with service accumulation
until a certain maintenance step is
performed, then return to the low-hour
emission levels and begin increasing
again. Base deterioration factors for
locomotives with such emission
patterns on the difference between (or
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ratio of) the point of the sawtooth at
which the highest emissions occur and
the low-hour test point. Note that this
applies for maintenance-related
deterioration only where we allow such
critical emission-related maintenance.
(4) Dual-fuel and flexible-fuel engines.
In the case of dual-fuel and flexible-fuel
locomotives, apply deterioration factors
separately for each fuel type by
measuring emissions with each fuel
type at each test point. You may
accumulate service hours on a single
emission-data engine using the type of
fuel or the fuel mixture expected to have
the highest combustion and exhaust
temperatures; you may ask us to
approve a different fuel mixture if you
demonstrate that a different criterion is
more appropriate.
(5) Deterioration factor for crankcase
emissions. If your engine vents
crankcase emissions to the exhaust or to
the atmosphere, you must account for
crankcase emission deterioration, using
good engineering judgment. You may
use separate deterioration factors for
crankcase emissions of each pollutant
(either multiplicative or additive) or
include the effects in combined
deterioration factors that include
exhaust and crankcase emissions
together for each pollutant.
*
*
*
*
*
■ 98. Section 1033.250 is amended by
revising paragraphs (b)(3)(iv) and (c) to
read as follows:
§ 1033.250
Reporting and recordkeeping.
*
*
*
*
*
(b) * * *
(3) * * *
(iv) All your emission tests (valid and
invalid), including the date and purpose
of each test and documentation of test
parameters as specified in part 40 CFR
part 1065, and the date and purpose of
each test.
*
*
*
*
*
(c) Keep required data from emission
tests and all other information specified
in this section for eight years after we
issue your certificate. If you use the
same emission data or other information
for a later model year, the eight-year
period restarts with each year that you
continue to rely on the information.
*
*
*
*
*
■ 99. Section 1033.255 is amended by
revising paragraphs (c)(2), (c)(4), (d),
and (e) to read as follows:
§ 1033.255
*
EPA decisions.
*
*
*
*
(c) * * *
(2) Submit false or incomplete
information (paragraph (e) of this
section applies if this is fraudulent).
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This includes doing anything after
submission of your application to
render any of the submitted information
false or incomplete.
*
*
*
*
*
(4) Deny us from completing
authorized activities (see 40 CFR
1068.20). This includes a failure to
provide reasonable assistance.
*
*
*
*
*
(d) We may void the certificate of
conformity for an engine family if you
fail to keep records, send reports, or give
us information as required under this
part or the Act. Note that these are also
violations of 40 CFR 1068.101(a)(2).
(e) We may void your certificate if we
find that you intentionally submitted
false or incomplete information. This
includes rendering submitted
information false or incomplete after
submission.
*
*
*
*
*
Subpart F—Test Procedures
100. Section 1033.501 is amended by
revising paragraph (a)(3) and adding
paragraphs (a)(4), (a)(5), and (j) to read
as follows:
■
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§ 1033.501
General provisions.
(a) * * *
(3) The following provisions apply for
engine mapping, duty cycle generation,
and cycle validation to account for the
fact that locomotive operation and
locomotive duty cycles are based on
operator demand from locomotive notch
settings, not on target values for engine
speed and load:
(i) The provisions related to engine
mapping, duty cycle generation, and
cycle validation in 40 CFR 1065.510,
1065.512, and 1065.514 do not apply for
testing complete locomotives.
(ii) The provisions related to engine
mapping and duty cycle generation in
40 CFR 1065.510 and 1065.512 are not
required for testing with an engine
dynamometer; however, the cycle
validation criteria of 40 CFR 1065.514
apply for such testing. Demonstrate
compliance with cycle validation
criteria based on manufacturer-declared
values for maximum torque, maximum
power, and maximum test speed, or
determine these values from an engine
map generated according to 40 CFR
1065.510. If you test using a rampedmodal cycle, you may perform cycle
validation over all the test intervals
together.
(4) If you perform discrete-mode
testing and use only one batch fuel
measurement to determine your mean
raw exhaust flow rate, you must target
a constant sample flow rate over the
mode. Verify proportional sampling as
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described in 40 CFR 1065.545 using the
mean raw exhaust molar flow rate
paired with each recorded sample flow
rate.
(5) If you perform discrete-mode
testing by grouping the modes in the
same manner as the test intervals of the
ramped modal cycle using three
different dilution settings for the groups,
as allowed in § 1033.515(c)(5)(ii), you
may verify proportional sampling over
each phase instead of each discrete
mode.
*
*
*
*
*
(j) The following provisions apply for
locomotives using aftertreatment
technology with infrequent regeneration
events that may occur during testing:
(1) Adjust measured emissions to
account for aftertreatment technology
with infrequent regeneration as
described in § 1033.535.
(2) Invalidate a smoke test if active
regeneration starts to occur during the
test.
■ 101. Section 1033.515 is amended by
revising paragraphs (c)(2)(ii) and
(c)(5)(ii) to read as follows:
§ 1033.515 Discrete-mode steady-state
emission tests of locomotives and
locomotive engines.
*
*
*
*
*
(c) * * *
(2) * * *
(ii) The sample period is 300 seconds
for all test modes except mode 8. The
sample period for test mode 8 is 600
seconds.
*
*
*
*
*
(5) * * *
(ii) Group the modes in the same
manner as the test intervals of the
ramped modal cycle and use three
different dilution settings for the groups.
Use one setting for both idle modes, one
for dynamic brake through Notch 5, and
one for Notch 6 through Notch 8. For
each group, ensure that the mode with
the highest exhaust flow (typically
normal idle, Notch 5, and Notch 8)
meets the criteria for minimum dilution
ratio in 40 CFR part 1065.
*
*
*
*
*
■ 102. Section 1033.520 is revised to
read as follows:
§ 1033.520
cycles.
Alternative ramped modal
(a) Locomotive testing over a ramped
modal cycle is intended to improve
measurement accuracy at low emission
levels by allowing the use of batch
sampling of PM and gaseous emissions
over multiple locomotive notch settings.
Ramped modal cycles combine multiple
test modes of a discrete-mode steadystate into a single sample period. Time
in notch is varied to be proportional to
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weighting factors. The ramped modal
cycle for line-haul locomotives is shown
in Table 1 to this section. The ramped
modal cycle for switch locomotives is
shown in Table 2 to this section. Both
ramped modal cycles consist of a warmup followed by three test intervals that
are each weighted in a manner that
maintains the duty cycle weighting of
the line-haul and switch locomotive
duty cycles in § 1033.530. You may use
ramped modal cycle testing for any
locomotives certified under this part.
(b) Ramped modal testing requires
continuous gaseous analyzers and three
separate PM filters (one for each test
interval). You may collect a single batch
sample for each test interval, but you
must also measure gaseous emissions
continuously to allow calculation of
notch caps as required under
§ 1033.101.
(c) You may operate the engine in any
way you choose to warm it up. Then
follow the provisions of 40 CFR part
1065, subpart F for general pre-test
procedures (including engine and
sampling system pre-conditioning).
(d) Begin the test by operating the
locomotive over the pre-test portion of
the cycle. For locomotives not equipped
with catalysts, you may begin the test as
soon as the engine reaches its lowest
idle setting. For catalyst-equipped
locomotives, you may begin the test in
normal idle mode if the engine does not
reach its lowest idle setting within 15
minutes. If you do start in normal idle,
run the low idle mode after normal idle,
then resume the specified mode
sequence (without repeating the normal
idle mode).
(e) Start the test according to 40 CFR
1065.530.
(1) Each test interval begins when
operator demand is set to the first
operator demand setting of each test
interval of the ramped modal cycle.
Each test interval ends when the time in
mode is reached for the last mode in the
test interval.
(2) For PM emissions (and other batch
sampling), the sample period over
which emissions for the test interval are
averaged generally begins within 10
seconds after the operator demand is
changed to start the test interval and
ends within 5 seconds of the sampling
time for the test mode is reached (see
Table 1 to this section). You may ask to
delay the start of the sample period to
account for sample system residence
times longer than 10 seconds.
(3) Use good engineering judgment
when transitioning between test
intervals.
(i) You should come as close as
possible to simultaneously:
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(A) Ending batch sampling of the
previous test interval.
(B) Starting batch sampling of the next
test interval.
(C) Changing the operator demand to
the notch setting for the first mode in
the next test interval.
(ii) Avoid the following:
(A) Overlapping batch sampling of the
two test intervals.
(B) An unnecessarily long delay
before starting the next test interval.
(iii) For example, the following
sequence would generally be
appropriate:
(A) End batch sampling for Interval 2
after 304 seconds in Notch 5.
(B) Switch the operator demand to
Notch 6 one second later.
(C) Begin batch sampling for Interval
3 one second after switching to Notch 6.
(4) If applicable, begin the smoke test
at the start of the first test test interval
of the applicable ramped modal cycle.
Continue collecting smoke data until the
completion of final test interval. Refer to
§ 1033.101 to determine applicability of
the smoke standards and § 1033.525 for
details on how to conduct a smoke test.
(5) Proceed through each test interval
of the applicable ramped modal cycle in
the order specified until the test is
completed.
(6) If you must void a test interval,
you may repeat it. To do so, begin with
a warm engine operating at the notch
setting for the last mode in the previous
test interval. You do not need to repeat
later test intervals if they were valid.
(Note: you must report test results for all
voided tests and test test intervals.)
(7) Following the completion of the
third test test interval of the applicable
ramped modal cycle, conduct the posttest sampling procedures specified in 40
CFR 1065.530.
(f) Calculate your cycle-weighted
brake-specific emission rates as follows:
(1) For each test interval j:
(i) Calculate emission rates (Eij) for
each pollutant i as the total mass
emissions divided by the total time in
the test interval.
(ii) Calculate average power (Pj) as the
total work divided by the total time in
the test interval.
(2) For each pollutant, calculate your
cycle-weighted brake-specific emission
rate using the following equation, where
wj is the weighting factor for test
interval j:
(g) The following tables define
applicable ramped modal cycles for
line-haul and switch locomotives:
TABLE 1 TO § 1033.520—LINE-HAUL LOCOMOTIVE RAMPED MODAL CYCLE
RMC test interval
Weighting factor
Pre-test idle ...............................................................
Interval 1 (Idle test) ...................................................
Time in mode
(seconds)
RMC mode
NA
0.380
NA
A
B
600 to 900
600
600
C
1
2
3
4
5
1,000
520
520
416
352
304
6
7
8
144
111
600
Notch setting
Lowest idle setting.1
Low Idle.2
Normal Idle.
Interval Transition
Interval 2 ...................................................................
0.389
Dynamic Brake.3
Notch 1.
Notch 2.
Notch 3.
Notch 4.
Notch 5.
Interval Transition
Interval 3 ...................................................................
0.231
Notch 6.
Notch 7.
Notch 8.
1 See
paragraph (d) of this section for alternate pre-test provisions.
at normal idle for modes A and B if not equipped with multiple idle settings.
3 Operate at normal idle if not equipped with a dynamic brake.
2 Operate
TABLE 2 TO § 1033.520—SWITCH LOCOMOTIVE RAMPED MODAL CYCLE
RMC test interval
Weighting factor
Pre-test idle ...............................................................
Interval 1 (Idle test) ...................................................
Time in mode
(seconds)
RMC mode
NA
0.598
NA
A
B
600 to 900
600
600
1
2
3
4
5
868
861
406
252
252
6
7
1,080
144
Notch setting
Lowest idle setting.1
Low Idle.2
Normal Idle.
Interval 2 ...................................................................
0.377
Notch
Notch
Notch
Notch
Notch
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Interval Transition
Interval 3 ...................................................................
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Notch 7.
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TABLE 2 TO § 1033.520—SWITCH LOCOMOTIVE RAMPED MODAL CYCLE—Continued
RMC test interval
Weighting factor
Time in mode
(seconds)
RMC mode
8
576
Notch setting
Notch 8.
1 See
paragraph (d) of this section for alternate pre-test provisions.
2 Operate at normal idle for modes A and B if not equipped with multiple idle settings.
103. Section 1033.535 is revised to
read as follows:
■
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§ 1033.535 Adjusting emission levels to
account for infrequently regenerating
aftertreatment devices.
For locomotives using aftertreatment
technology with infrequent regeneration
events that may occur during testing,
take one of the following approaches to
account for the emission impact of
regeneration:
(a) You may use the calculation
methodology described in 40 CFR
1065.680 to adjust measured emission
results. Do this by developing an
upward adjustment factor and a
downward adjustment factor for each
pollutant based on measured emission
data and observed regeneration
frequency as follows:
(1) Adjustment factors should
generally apply to an entire engine
family, but you may develop separate
adjustment factors for different
configurations within an engine family.
Use the adjustment factors from this
section for all testing for the engine
family.
(2) You may use carryover or carryacross data to establish adjustment
factors for an engine family as described
in § 1033.235, consistent with good
engineering judgment.
(3) Determine the frequency of
regeneration, F, as described in 40 CFR
1065.680 from in-use operating data or
from running repetitive tests in a
laboratory. If the engine is designed for
regeneration at fixed time intervals, you
may apply good engineering judgment
to determine F based on those design
parameters.
(4) Identify the value of F in each
application for the certification for
which it applies.
(5) Apply the provisions for rampedmodal testing based on measurements
for each test interval rather than the
whole ramped-modal test.
(b) You may ask us to approve an
alternate methodology to account for
regeneration events. We will generally
limit approval to cases where your
engines use aftertreatment technology
with extremely infrequent regeneration
and you are unable to apply the
provisions of this section.
(c) You may choose to make no
adjustments to measured emission
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results if you determine that
regeneration does not significantly affect
emission levels for an engine family (or
configuration) or if it is not practical to
identify when regeneration occurs. If
you choose not to make adjustments
under paragraph (a) or (b) of this
section, your locomotives must meet
emission standards for all testing,
without regard to regeneration.
(k) You may use either of the
following approaches to retire or forego
emission credits:
(1) You may retire emission credits
generated from any number of your
locomotives. This may be considered
donating emission credits to the
environment. Identify any such credits
in the reports described in § 1033.730.
Locomotives must comply with the
applicable FELs even if you donate or
Subpart G—Special Compliance
sell the corresponding emission credits
Provisions
under this paragraph (e). Those credits
may no longer be used by anyone to
■ 104. Section 1033.601 is amended by
demonstrate compliance with any EPA
adding paragraph (f) to read as follows:
emission standards.
(2) You may certify a family using an
§ 1033.601 General compliance provisions.
FEL below the emission standard as
*
*
*
*
*
described in this part and choose not to
(f) Multi-fuel locomotives. Subpart C
generate emission credits for that
of this part describes how to test and
family. If you do this, you do not need
certify dual-fuel and flexible-fuel
to calculate emission credits for those
locomotives. Some multi-fuel
families and you do not need to submit
locomotives may not fit either of those
defined terms. For such locomotives, we or keep the associated records described
in this subpart for that family.
will determine whether it is most
■ 106. Section 1033.710 is amended by
appropriate to treat them as single-fuel
revising paragraph (c) to read as follows:
locomotives, dual-fuel locomotives, or
flexible-fuel locomotives based on the
§ 1033.710 Averaging emission credits.
range of possible and expected fuel
*
*
*
*
*
mixtures. For example, a locomotive
(c) If you certify an engine family to
might burn natural gas but initiate
an FEL that exceeds the otherwise
combustion with a pilot injection of
applicable emission standard, you must
diesel fuel. If the locomotive is designed
obtain enough emission credits to offset
to operate with a single fueling
the engine family’s deficit by the due
algorithm (i.e., fueling rates are fixed at
date for the final report required in
a given engine speed and load
§ 1033.730. The emission credits used to
condition), we would generally treat it
address the deficit may come from your
as a single-fuel locomotive, In this
other engine families that generate
context, the combination of diesel fuel
emission credits in the same model
and natural gas would be its own fuel
year, from emission credits you have
type. If the locomotive is designed to
banked from previous model years, or
also operate on diesel fuel alone, we
would generally treat it as a dual-fueled from emission credits generated in the
same or previous model years that you
locomotive. If the locomotive is
designed to operate on varying mixtures obtained through trading or by transfer.
■ 107. Section 1033.725 is amended by
of the two fuels, we would generally
revising paragraph (b)(2) to read as
treat it as a flexible-fueled locomotive.
To the extent that requirements vary for follows:
the different fuels or fuel mixtures, we
§ 1033.725 Requirements for your
may apply the more stringent
application for certification.
requirements.
*
*
*
*
*
(b) * * *
Subpart H—Averaging, Banking, and
(2) Detailed calculations of projected
Trading for Certification
emission credits (positive or negative)
based on projected production volumes.
■ 105. Section 1033.701 is amended by
We may require you to include similar
adding paragraph (k) to read as follows:
calculations from your other engine
§ 1033.701 General provisions.
families to demonstrate that you will be
able to avoid negative credit balances
*
*
*
*
*
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for the model year. If you project
negative emission credits for a family,
state the source of positive emission
credits you expect to use to offset the
negative emission credits.
■ 108. Section 1033.730 is amended by
revising paragraphs (b)(1), (b)(4), and
(c)(2) to read as follows:
§ 1033.730
ABT reports.
*
*
*
*
*
(b) * * *
(1) Engine family designation and
averaging sets (whether switch, linehaul, or both).
*
*
*
*
*
(4) The projected and actual U.S.directed production volumes for the
model year as described in § 1033.705.
If you changed an FEL during the model
year, identify the actual U.S.-directed
production volume associated with each
FEL.
*
*
*
*
*
(c) * * *
(2) State whether you will retain any
emission credits for banking. If you
choose to retire emission credits that
would otherwise be eligible for banking,
identify the engine families that
generated the emission credits,
including the number of emission
credits from each family.
*
*
*
*
*
■ 109. Section 1033.735 is amended by
revising paragraphs (a) and (b) to read
as follows:
§ 1033.735
Required records.
(a) You must organize and maintain
your records as described in this
section.
(b) Keep the records required by this
section for at least eight years after the
due date for the end-of-year report. You
may not use emission credits for any
engines if you do not keep all the
records required under this section. You
must therefore keep these records to
continue to bank valid credits.
*
*
*
*
*
Subpart I—Requirements for Owners
and Operators
110. Section 1033.815 is amended by
revising paragraphs (b) and (e)
introductory text to read as follows:
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■
§ 1033.815
repair.
Maintenance, operation, and
*
*
*
*
*
(b) Perform unscheduled maintenance
in a timely manner. This includes
malfunctions identified through the
locomotive’s emission control
diagnostics system and malfunctions
discovered in components of the
diagnostics system itself. For most
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repairs, this paragraph (b) requires that
the maintenance be performed no later
than the locomotive’s next periodic (92day or 184-day) inspection. See
paragraph (e) of this section, for
reductant replenishment requirements
in a locomotive equipped with an SCR
system.
*
*
*
*
*
(e) For locomotives equipped with
emission controls requiring the use of
specific fuels, lubricants, or other fluids,
proper maintenance includes complying
with the manufacturer/remanufacturer’s
specifications for such fluids when
operating the locomotives. This
requirement applies without regard to
whether misfueling permanently
disables the emission controls. For
locomotives certified on ultra-low sulfur
diesel fuel, but that do not include
sulfur-sensitive emission controls, you
may use low-sulfur diesel fuel instead of
ultra-low sulfur diesel fuel, consistent
with good engineering judgment. The
following additional provisions apply
for locomotives equipped with SCR
systems requiring the use of urea or
other reductants:
*
*
*
*
*
Subpart J—Definitions and Other
Reference Information
111. Section 1033.901 is amended as
follows:
■ a. By revising the definition for
‘‘Designated Compliance Officer’’.
■ b. By adding definitions for ‘‘Dualfuel’’ and ‘‘Flexible-fuel’’.
■ c. By revising the definitions for
‘‘Remanufacture system or
remanufacturing system’’ and ‘‘Total
hydrocarbon equivalent’’.
The revisions and addition read as
follows:
■
§ 1033.901
Definitions.
*
*
*
*
*
Designated Compliance Officer means
the Director, Diesel Engine Compliance
Center, U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency, 2000 Traverwood Drive, Ann
Arbor, MI 48105; complianceinfo@
epa.gov; epa.gov/otaq/verify.
*
*
*
*
*
Dual-fuel means relating to a
locomotive designed for operation on
two different fuels but not on a
continuous mixture of those fuels (see
§ 1033.601(f)). For purposes of this part,
such a locomotive remains a dual-fuel
locomotive even if it is designed for
operation on three or more different
fuels.
*
*
*
*
*
Flexible-fuel means relating to a
locomotive designed for operation on
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any mixture of two or more different
fuels (see § 1033.601(f)).
*
*
*
*
*
Remanufacture system or
remanufacturing system means all
components (or specifications for
components) and instructions necessary
to remanufacture a locomotive or
locomotive engine in accordance with
applicable requirements of this part.
*
*
*
*
*
Total hydrocarbon equivalent has the
meaning given in 40 CFR 1065.1001.
This generally means the sum of the
carbon mass contributions of nonoxygenated hydrocarbon, alcohols and
aldehydes, or other organic compounds
that are measured separately as
contained in a gas sample, expressed as
exhaust hydrocarbon from petroleumfueled locomotives. The atomic
hydrogen-to-carbon ratio of the
equivalent hydrocarbon is 1.85:1.
*
*
*
*
*
■ 112. Section 1033.915 is revised to
read as follows:
§ 1033.915
Confidential information.
The provisions of 40 CFR 1068.10
apply for information you consider
confidential.
■ 113. Section 1033.925 is revised to
read as follows:
§ 1033.925 Reporting and recordkeeping
requirements.
(a) This part includes various
requirements to submit and record data
or other information. Unless we specify
otherwise, store required records in any
format and on any media and keep them
readily available for eight years after
you send an associated application for
certification, or eight years after you
generate the data if they do not support
an application for certification. You are
expected to keep your own copy of
required records rather than relying on
someone else to keep records on your
behalf. We may review these records at
any time. You must promptly send us
organized, written records in English if
we ask for them. We may require you to
submit written records in an electronic
format.
(b) The regulations in § 1033.255, 40
CFR 1068.25, and 40 CFR 1068.101
describe your obligation to report
truthful and complete information. This
includes information not related to
certification. Failing to properly report
information and keep the records we
specify violates 40 CFR 1068.101(a)(2),
which may involve civil or criminal
penalties.
(c) Send all reports and requests for
approval to the Designated Compliance
Officer (see § 1033.801).
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(d) Any written information we
require you to send to or receive from
another company is deemed to be a
required record under this section. Such
records are also deemed to be
submissions to EPA. We may require
you to send us these records whether or
not you are a certificate holder.
(e) Under the Paperwork Reduction
Act (44 U.S.C. 3501 et seq.), the Office
of Management and Budget approves
the reporting and recordkeeping
specified in the applicable regulations.
Failing to properly report information
and keep the records we specify violates
40 CFR 1068.101(a)(2), which may
involve civil or criminal penalties. The
following items illustrate the kind of
reporting and recordkeeping we require
for locomotives regulated under this
part:
(1) We specify the following
requirements related to locomotive
certification in this part 1033:
(i) In § 1033.150 we state the
requirements for interim provisions.
(ii) In subpart C of this part we
identify a wide range of information
required to certify engines.
(iii) In § 1033.325 we specify certain
records related to production-line
testing.
(iv) In subpart G of this part we
identify several reporting and
recordkeeping items for making
demonstrations and getting approval
related to various special compliance
provisions.
(v) In §§ 1033.725, 1033.730, and
1033.735 we specify certain records
related to averaging, banking, and
trading.
(vi) In subpart I of this part we specify
certain records related to meeting
requirements for remanufactured
engines.
(2) We specify the following
requirements related to testing in 40
CFR part 1065:
(i) In 40 CFR 1065.2 we give an
overview of principles for reporting
information.
(ii) In 40 CFR 1065.10 and 1065.12 we
specify information needs for
establishing various changes to
published test procedures.
(iii) In 40 CFR 1065.25 we establish
basic guidelines for storing test
information.
(iv) In 40 CFR 1065.695 we identify
the specific information and data items
to record when measuring emissions.
(3) We specify the following
requirements related to the general
compliance provisions in 40 CFR part
1068:
(i) In 40 CFR 1068.5 we establish a
process for evaluating good engineering
judgment related to testing and
certification.
(ii) In 40 CFR 1068.25 we describe
general provisions related to sending
and keeping information.
Line-haul ...........................................
1973–1992
1993–2004
2005–2011
1973–1992
1993–2004
2005–2011
Switch ...............................................
Appendix I to Part 1033—Original
Standards for Tier 0, Tier 1 and Tier 2
Locomotives
(a) The following emission standards
applied for new locomotives not yet subject
to this part 1033:
Standards (g/bhp-hr)
Year of original
manufacture
Type of standard
(iii) In 40 CFR 1068.27 we require
manufacturers to make locomotives
available for our testing or inspection if
we make such a request.
(iv) In 40 CFR part 1068, subpart C,
we identify several reporting and
recordkeeping items for making
demonstrations and getting approval
related to various exemptions.
(v) In 40 CFR part 1068, subpart D, we
identify several reporting and
recordkeeping items for making
demonstrations and getting approval
related to importing locomotives and
engines.
(vi) In 40 CFR 1068.450 and 1068.455
we specify certain records related to
testing production-line locomotives in a
selective enforcement audit.
(vii) In 40 CFR 1068.501 we specify
certain records related to investigating
and reporting emission-related defects.
(viii) In 40 CFR 1068.525 and
1068.530 we specify certain records
related to recalling nonconforming
locomotives.
■ 114. Appendix I to part 1033 is added
to read as follows:
Tier
NOX
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
Tier
0
1
2
0
1
2
..................
..................
..................
..................
..................
..................
PM–primary
9.5
7.4
5.5
14.0
11.0
8.1
PM–alternate a
0.60
0.45
0.20
0.72
0.54
0.24
0.30
0.22
0.10
0.36
0.27
0.12
a Locomotives certified to the alternate PM standards are also subject to alternate CO standards of 10.0 for the line-haul cycle and 12.0 for the
switch cycle.
(b) The original Tier 0, Tier 1, and Tier 2
standards for HC and CO emissions and
smoke are the same standards identified in
§ 1033.101.
115. Part 1036 is revised to read as
follows:
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■
PART 1036—CONTROL OF EMISSIONS
FROM NEW AND IN-USE HEAVY-DUTY
HIGHWAY ENGINES
Subpart A—Overview and Applicability
Sec.
1036.1 Does this part apply for my engines?
1036.2 Who is responsible for compliance?
1036.5 Which engines are excluded from
this part’s requirements?
1036.10 How is this part organized?
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1036.15 Do any other regulation parts apply
to me?
1036.30 Submission of information.
Subpart B—Emission Standards and
Related Requirements
1036.100 Overview of exhaust emission
standards.
1036.108 Greenhouse gas emission
standards.
1036.115 Other requirements.
1036.130 Installation instructions for
vehicle manufacturers.
1036.135 Labeling.
1036.140 Primary intended service class
and engine cycle.
1036.150 Interim provisions.
Subpart C—Certifying Engine Families
1036.205 What must I include in my
application?
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1036.210 Preliminary approval before
certification.
1036.225 Amending my application for
certification.
1036.230 Selecting engine families.
1036.235 Testing requirements for
certification.
1036.241 Demonstrating compliance with
greenhouse gas emission standards.
1036.250 Reporting and recordkeeping for
certification.
1036.255 What decisions may EPA make
regarding my certificate of conformity?
Subpart D—Testing Production Engines
1036.301 Measurements related to GEM
inputs in a selective enforcement audit.
Subpart E—In-use Testing
1036.401
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Subpart F—Test Procedures
1036.501 How do I run a valid emission
test?
1036.525 Hybrid engines.
1036.530 Calculating greenhouse gas
emission rates.
1036.535 Determining engine fuel maps and
fuel consumption at idle.
Subpart G—Special Compliance Provisions
1036.601 What compliance provisions
apply?
1036.610 Off-cycle technology credits and
adjustments for reducing greenhouse gas
emissions.
1036.615 Engines with Rankine cycle waste
heat recovery and hybrid powertrains.
1036.620 Alternate CO2 standards based on
model year 2011 compression-ignition
engines.
1036.625 In-use compliance with family
emission limits (FELs).
1036.630 Certification of engine GHG
emissions for powertrain testing.
Subpart H—Averaging, Banking, and
Trading for Certification
1036.701 General provisions.
1036.705 Generating and calculating
emission credits.
1036.710 Averaging.
1036.715 Banking.
1036.720 Trading.
1036.725 What must I include in my
application for certification?
1036.730 ABT reports.
1036.735 Recordkeeping.
1036.740 Restrictions for using emission
credits.
1036.745 End-of-year CO2 credit deficits.
1036.750 What can happen if I do not
comply with the provisions of this
subpart?
1036.755 Information provided to the
Department of Transportation.
Subpart I—Definitions and Other Reference
Information
1036.801 Definitions.
1036.805 Symbols, abbreviations, and
acronyms.
1036.810 Incorporation by reference.
1036.815 Confidential information.
1036.820 Requesting a hearing.
1036.825 Reporting and recordkeeping
requirements.
Authority: 42 U.S.C. 7401–7671q.
Subpart A—Overview and Applicability
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§ 1036.1 Does this part apply for my
engines?
(a) Except as specified in § 1036.5, the
provisions of this part apply for engines
that will be installed in heavy-duty
vehicles above 14,000 pounds GVWR
for propulsion. These provisions also
apply for engines that will be installed
in incomplete heavy-duty vehicles at or
below 14,000 pounds GVWR unless the
engine is installed in a vehicle that is
covered by a certificate of conformity
under 40 CFR part 86, subpart S.
(b) This part does not apply with
respect to exhaust emission standards
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for HC, CO, NOX, or PM except as
follows:
(1) The provisions of § 1036.601
apply.
(2) 40 CFR parts 85 and/or 86 may
specify that certain provisions apply.
(c) The provisions of this part also
apply for fuel conversions of all engines
described in paragraph (a) of this
section as described in 40 CFR 85.502.
(d) Gas turbine heavy-duty engines
and other heavy-duty engines not
meeting the definition compressionignition or spark-ignition are deemed to
be compression-ignition engines for
purposes of this part.
§ 1036.2 Who is responsible for
compliance?
The regulations in this part 1036
contain provisions that affect both
engine manufacturers and others.
However, the requirements of this part
are generally addressed to the engine
manufacturer(s). The term ‘‘you’’
generally means the engine
manufacturer(s), especially for issues
related to certification. Additional
requirements and prohibitions apply to
other persons as specified in § 1036.601
and 40 CFR part 1068.
§ 1036.5 Which engines are excluded from
this part’s requirements?
(a) The provisions of this part do not
apply to engines used in medium-duty
passenger vehicles or other heavy-duty
vehicles that are subject to regulation
under 40 CFR part 86, subpart S, except
as specified in 40 CFR part 86, subpart
S, and § 1036.108(a)(4). For example,
this exclusion applies for engines used
in vehicles certified to the standards of
40 CFR 86.1819.
(b) An engine installed in a heavyduty vehicle that is not used to propel
the vehicle is not a heavy-duty engine.
The provisions of this part therefore do
not apply to these engines. Note that
engines used to indirectly propel the
vehicle (such as electrical generator
engines that provide power to batteries
for propulsion) are subject to this part.
See 40 CFR part 1039, 1048, or 1054 for
other requirements that apply for these
auxiliary engines. See 40 CFR part 1037
for requirements that may apply for
vehicles using these engines, such as the
evaporative emission requirements of 40
CFR 1037.103.
(c) The provisions of this part do not
apply to aircraft or aircraft engines.
Standards apply separately to certain
aircraft engines, as described in 40 CFR
part 87.
(d) The provisions of this part do not
apply to engines that are not internal
combustion engines. For example, the
provisions of this part do not apply to
fuel cells.
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(e) The provisions of this part do not
apply for model year 2013 and earlier
heavy-duty engines unless they were
voluntarily certified to this part.
§ 1036.10
How is this part organized?
This part 1036 is divided into the
following subparts:
(a) Subpart A of this part defines the
applicability of this part 1036 and gives
an overview of regulatory requirements.
(b) Subpart B of this part describes the
emission standards and other
requirements that must be met to certify
engines under this part. Note that
§ 1036.150 describes certain interim
requirements and compliance
provisions that apply only for a limited
time.
(c) Subpart C of this part describes
how to apply for a certificate of
conformity.
(d) [Reserved]
(e) Subpart E of this part describes
provisions for testing in-use engines.
(f) Subpart F of this part describes
how to test your engines (including
references to other parts of the Code of
Federal Regulations).
(g) Subpart G of this part describes
requirements, prohibitions, and other
provisions that apply to engine
manufacturers, vehicle manufacturers,
owners, operators, rebuilders, and all
others.
(h) Subpart H of this part describes
how you may generate and use emission
credits to certify your engines.
(i) Subpart I of this part contains
definitions and other reference
information.
§ 1036.15 Do any other regulation parts
apply to me?
(a) Part 86 of this chapter describes
additional requirements that apply to
engines that are subject to this part
1036. This part extensively references
portions of 40 CFR part 86. For example,
the regulations of part 86 specify
emission standards and certification
procedures related to criteria pollutants.
(b) Part 1037 of this chapter describes
requirements for controlling evaporative
emissions and greenhouse gas emissions
from heavy-duty vehicles, whether or
not they use engines certified under this
part. It also includes standards and
requirements that apply instead of the
standards and requirements of this part
in some cases.
(c) Part 1065 of this chapter describes
procedures and equipment
specifications for testing engines to
measure exhaust emissions. Subpart F
of this part 1036 describes how to apply
the provisions of part 1065 of this
chapter to determine whether engines
meet the exhaust emission standards in
this part.
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(d) Certain provisions of part 1068 of
this chapter apply as specified in
§ 1036.601 to everyone, including
anyone who manufactures, imports,
installs, owns, operates, or rebuilds any
of the engines subject to this part 1036,
or vehicles containing these engines.
Part 1068 of this chapter describes
general provisions that apply broadly,
but do not necessarily apply for all
engines or all persons. See § 1036.601 to
determine how to apply the part 1068
regulations for heavy-duty engines. The
issues addressed by these provisions
include these seven areas:
(1) Prohibited acts and penalties for
engine manufacturers, vehicle
manufacturers, and others.
(2) Rebuilding and other aftermarket
changes.
(3) Exclusions and exemptions for
certain engines.
(4) Importing engines.
(5) Selective enforcement audits of
your production.
(6) Recall.
(7) Procedures for hearings.
(e) Other parts of this chapter apply
if referenced in this part.
§ 1036.30
Submission of information.
Unless we specify otherwise, send all
reports and requests for approval to the
Designated Compliance Officer (see
§ 1036.801). See § 1036.825 for
additional reporting and recordkeeping
provisions.
Subpart B—Emission Standards and
Related Requirements
§ 1036.100 Overview of exhaust emission
standards.
Engines used in vehicles certified to
the applicable chassis standards for
greenhouse gases described in 40 CFR
86.1819 are not subject to the standards
specified in this part. All other engines
subject to this part must meet the
greenhouse gas standards in § 1036.108
in addition to the criteria pollutant
standards of 40 CFR part 86.
§ 1036.108 Greenhouse gas emission
standards.
This section contains standards and
other regulations applicable to the
emission of the air pollutant defined as
the aggregate group of six greenhouse
gases: Carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide,
methane, hydrofluorocarbons,
perfluorocarbons, and sulfur
hexafluoride. This section describes the
applicable CO2, N2O, and CH4 standards
for engines. These standards do not
apply for engines used in vehicles
subject to (or voluntarily certified to) the
CO2, N2O, and CH4 standards for
vehicles specified in 40 CFR 86.1819.
(a) Emission standards. Emission
standards apply for engines measured
using the test procedures specified in
subpart F of this part as follows:
(1) CO2 emission standards apply as
specified in this paragraph (a)(1). The
applicable test cycle for measuring CO2
emissions differs depending on the
engine family’s primary intended
service class and the extent to which the
engines will be (or were designed to be)
Light heavyduty
Model years
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2014–2016 ...........................................................................
2017–2020 ...........................................................................
2021–2023 ...........................................................................
2024–2026 ...........................................................................
2027 and later ......................................................................
(2) The CH4 emission standard is 0.10
g/hp-hr when measured over the
applicable transient duty cycle specified
in 40 CFR part 86, subpart N. This
standard begins in model year 2014 for
compression-ignition engines and in
model year 2016 for spark-ignition
engines. Note that this standard applies
for all fuel types just as the other
standards of this section do.
(3) N2O emission standards applies as
follows for engines when measured over
the appropriate transient duty cycle
specified in 40 CFR part 86, subpart N:
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Medium
heavy-duty—
vocational
600
576
565
556
553
Frm 00448
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Heavy heavyduty—
vocational
600
576
565
556
553
(i) An emission standard of 0.05 g/hphr applies for model year 2021 and later
engines.
(ii) An emission standard of 0.10 g/
hp-hr applies for compression-ignition
engines for model years 2014 through
2020.
(iii) An emission standard of 0.10 g/
hp-hr applies for spark-ignition engines
for model years 2016 through 2020.
(b) Family certification levels. You
must specify a CO2 Family Certification
Level (FCL) for each engine family. The
FCL may not be less than the certified
emission level for the engine family.
The CO2 Family Emission Limit (FEL)
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used in tractors. For medium and heavy
heavy-duty engines certified as tractor
engines, measure CO2 emissions using
the steady-state duty cycle specified in
40 CFR 86.1362 (referred to as the
ramped-modal cycle, or RMC, even
though emission sampling involves
measurements from discrete modes).
This is intended for engines designed to
be used primarily in tractors and other
line-haul applications. Note that the use
of some RMC-certified tractor engines in
vocational applications does not affect
your certification obligation under this
paragraph (a)(1); see other provisions of
this part and 40 CFR part 1037 for limits
on using engines certified to only one
cycle. For medium and heavy heavyduty engines certified as both tractor
and vocational engines, measure CO2
emissions using the steady-state duty
cycle and the transient duty cycle
(sometimes referred to as the FTP
engine cycle), both of which are
specified in 40 CFR part 86, subpart N.
This is intended for engines that are
designed for use in both tractor and
vocational applications. For all other
engines (including all spark-ignition
engines), measure CO2 emissions using
the appropriate transient duty cycle
specified in 40 CFR part 86, subpart N.
(i) The CO2 standard for model year
2016 and later spark-ignition engines is
627 g/hp-hr.
(ii) The following CO2 standards
apply for compression-ignition engines,
including engines that are deemed to be
compression-ignition engines under
§ 1036.1 (in g/hp-hr):
567
555
544
536
533
Medium
heavy-duty—
tractor
502
487
479
469
466
Heavy heavyduty—
tractor
475
460
453
443
441
for the engine family is equal to the FCL
multiplied by 1.03.
(c) Averaging, banking, and trading.
You may generate or use emission
credits under the averaging, banking,
and trading (ABT) program described in
subpart H of this part for demonstrating
compliance with CO2 emission
standards. Credits (positive and
negative) are calculated from the
difference between the FCL and the
applicable emission standard. As
described in § 1036.705, you may use
CO2 credits to certify your engine
families to FELs for N2O and/or CH4,
instead of the N2O/CH4 standards of this
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section that otherwise apply. Except as
specified in §§ 1036.150 and 1036.705,
you may not generate or use credits for
N2O or CH4 emissions.
(d) Useful life. The exhaust emission
standards of this section apply for the
full useful life, expressed in service
miles, operating hours, or calendar
years, whichever comes first. The useful
life values applicable to the criteria
pollutant standards of 40 CFR part 86
apply for the standards of this section,
except that model year 2021 and later
spark-ignition engines and light heavyduty compression-ignition engines are
subject to the standards of this section
over a useful life of 15 years or 150,000
miles, whichever comes first.
(e) Applicability for testing. The
emission standards in this subpart apply
as specified in this paragraph (e) to all
duty-cycle testing (according to the
applicable test cycles) of testable
configurations, including certification,
selective enforcement audits, and in-use
testing. The CO2 FCLs serve as the CO2
emission standards for the engine family
with respect to certification and
confirmatory testing instead of the
standards specified in paragraph (a)(1)
of this section. The FELs serve as the
emission standards for the engine family
with respect to all other duty-cycle
testing. See §§ 1036.235 and 1036.241 to
determine which engine configurations
within the engine family are subject to
testing. Note that fuel maps and
powertrain test results also serve as
standards as described in § 1036.535,
§ 1036.630 and 40 CFR 1037.550.
(f) Multi-fuel engines. For dual-fuel,
multi-fuel, and flexible-fuel engines,
perform exhaust testing on each fuel
type (for example, gasoline and E85).
(1) This paragraph (f)(1) applies where
you demonstrate the relative amount of
each fuel type that your engines
consume in actual use. Based on your
demonstration, we will specify a
weighting factor and allow you to
submit the weighted average of your
emission results. For example, if you
certify an E85 flexible-fuel engine and
we determine the engine will produce
one-half of its work from E85 and onehalf of its work from gasoline, you may
apply a 50% weighting factor to each of
your E85 and gasoline emission results.
(2) If you certify your engine family to
N2O and/or CH4 FELs the FELs apply for
testing on all fuel types for which your
engine is designed, to the same extent
as criteria emission standards apply.
§ 1036.115
Other requirements.
(a) The warranty and maintenance
requirements, adjustable parameter
provisions, and defeat device
prohibition of 40 CFR part 86 apply
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with respect to the standards of this
part.
(b) You must create a fuel map and
establish idle-specific fuel-consumption
values for your engine as described in
§ 1036.535. You may alternatively
perform powertrain testing as specified
in § 1036.630 and 40 CFR 1037.550 for
some or all of your configurations
within the engine family.
(c) You must design and produce your
engines to comply with evaporative
emission standards as follows:
(1) For complete heavy-duty vehicles
you produce, you must certify the
vehicles to emission standards as
specified in 40 CFR 1037.103.
(2) For incomplete heavy-duty
vehicles, and for engines used in
vehicles you do not produce, you do not
need to certify your engines to
evaporative emission standards or
otherwise meet those standards.
However, vehicle manufacturers
certifying their vehicles with your
engines may depend on you to produce
your engines according to their
specifications. Also, your engines must
meet applicable exhaust emission
standards in the installed configuration.
example, instructions for installing
aftertreatment devices when installing
the engines.
(7) State: ‘‘If you install the engine in
a way that makes the engine’s emission
control information label hard to read
during normal engine maintenance, you
must place a duplicate label on the
vehicle, as described in 40 CFR
1068.105.’’
(c) Give the vehicle manufacturer fuel
map results as described in § 1036.535
or powertrain results as described in
§ 1036.630 and 40 CFR 1037.550 for
each engine configuration, as
appropriate.
(d) You do not need installation
instructions for engines that you install
in your own vehicles.
(e) Provide instructions in writing or
in an equivalent format. For example,
you may post instructions on a publicly
available Web site for downloading or
printing. If you do not provide the
instructions in writing, explain in your
application for certification how you
will ensure that each installer is
informed of the installation
requirements.
§ 1036.130 Installation instructions for
vehicle manufacturers.
Label your engines as described in 40
CFR 86.007–35(a)(3), with the following
additional information:
(a) [Reserved]
(b) Identify the emission control
system. Use terms and abbreviations as
described in 40 CFR 1068.45 or other
applicable conventions.
(c) Identify any limitations on your
certification. For example, if you certify
heavy heavy-duty engines to the CO2
standards using only transient cycle
testing, include the statement
‘‘VOCATIONAL VEHICLES ONLY’’.
(d) You may ask us to approve
modified labeling requirements in this
part 1036 if you show that it is
necessary or appropriate. We will
approve your request if your alternate
label is consistent with the requirements
of this part. We may also specify
modified labeling requirement to be
consistent with the intent of 40 CFR part
1037.
(a) If you sell an engine for someone
else to install in a vehicle, give the
engine installer instructions for
installing it consistent with the
requirements of this part. Include all
information necessary to ensure that an
engine will be installed in its certified
configuration.
(b) Make sure these instructions have
the following information:
(1) Include the heading: ‘‘Emissionrelated installation instructions’’.
(2) State: ‘‘Failing to follow these
instructions when installing a certified
engine in a heavy-duty motor vehicle
violates federal law, subject to fines or
other penalties as described in the Clean
Air Act.’’
(3) Provide all instructions needed to
properly install the exhaust system and
any other components.
(4) Describe any necessary steps for
installing any diagnostic system
required under 40 CFR part 86.
(5) Describe how your certification is
limited for any type of application. For
example, if you certify heavy heavyduty engines to the CO2 standards using
only steady-state transient FTP testing,
you must make clear that the engine
may not be installed in tractors.
(6) Describe any other instructions to
make sure the installed engine will
operate according to design
specifications in your application for
certification. This may include, for
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§ 1036.135
Labeling.
§ 1036.140 Primary intended service class
and engine cycle.
(a) You must identify a single primary
intended service class for each engine
family. Select the class that best
describes vehicles for which you design
and market the engine. There are three
primary intended service classes for
vehicles with engines that are not
gasoline-fueled: Light heavy-duty,
medium heavy-duty, and heavy heavyduty. Unless otherwise specified,
engines that qualify as medium heavy-
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duty or heavy heavy-duty engines and
do not operate on gasoline must meet all
the emission standards and other
requirements of this part that apply for
compression-ignition engines, even if
they qualify under the definitions as
spark-ignition engines. Also, sparkignition engines that qualify as light
heavy-duty engines must meet all the
emission standards and other
requirements of this part that apply for
spark-ignition engines, regardless of
fuel. These spark-ignition light-heavyduty engines and all sizes of gasolinefueled heavy-duty engines together form
a separate primary intended service
class. For purposes of this section, dualfuel and flexible fuel engines that
operate on gasoline are considered
gasoline-fueled engines.
(b) Divide engines other than
gasoline-fueled engines into primary
intended service classes based on the
following engine and vehicle
characteristics:
(1) Light heavy-duty engines usually
are not designed for rebuild and do not
have cylinder liners. Vehicle body types
in this group might include any heavyduty vehicle built from a light-duty
truck chassis, van trucks, multi-stop
vans, motor homes and other
recreational vehicles, and some straight
trucks with a single rear axle. Typical
applications would include personal
transportation, light-load commercial
delivery, passenger service, agriculture,
and construction. The GVWR of these
vehicles is normally below 19,500
pounds.
(2) Medium heavy-duty engines may
be designed for rebuild and may have
cylinder liners. Vehicle body types in
this group would typically include
school buses, straight trucks with dual
rear axles, city tractors, and a variety of
special purpose vehicles such as small
dump trucks, and refuse trucks. Typical
applications would include commercial
short haul and intra-city delivery and
pickup. Engines in this group are
normally used in vehicles whose GVWR
ranges from 19,500 to 33,000 pounds.
(3) Heavy heavy-duty engines are
designed for multiple rebuilds and have
cylinder liners. Vehicles in this group
are normally tractors, trucks, and buses
used in inter-city, long-haul
applications. These vehicles normally
exceed 33,000 pounds GVWR.
§ 1036.150
Interim provisions.
The provisions in this section apply
instead of other provisions in this part.
(a) Early banking of greenhouse gas
emissions. You may generate CO2
emission credits for engines you certify
in model year 2013 (2015 for sparkignition engines) to the standards of
§ 1036.108.
(1) Except as specified in paragraph
(a)(2) of this section, to generate early
credits, you must certify your entire
U.S.-directed production volume within
that averaging set to these standards.
This means that you may not generate
early credits while you produce engines
in the averaging set that are certified to
the criteria pollutant standards but not
to the greenhouse gas standards.
Calculate emission credits as described
in subpart H of this part relative to the
standard that would apply for model
year 2014 (2016 for spark-ignition
engines).
(2) You may generate early credits for
an individual compression-ignition
engine family where you demonstrate
that you have improved a model year
2013 engine model’s CO2 emissions
relative to its 2012 baseline level and
certify it to an FCL below the applicable
standard. Calculate emission credits as
described in subpart H of this part
relative to the lesser of the standard that
would apply for model year 2014
engines or the baseline engine’s CO2
emission rate. Use the smaller U.S.directed production volume of the 2013
engine family or the 2012 baseline
engine family. We will not allow you to
generate emission credits under this
paragraph (a)(2) unless we determine
that your 2013 engine is the same
engine as the 2012 baseline or that it
replaces it.
(3) You may bank credits equal to the
surplus credits you generate under this
paragraph (a) multiplied by 1.50. For
example, if you have 10 Mg of surplus
credits for model year 2013, you may
bank 15 Mg of credits. Credit deficits for
an averaging set prior to model year
2014 (2016 for spark-ignition engines)
do not carry over to model year 2014
(2016 for spark-ignition engines). We
recommend that you notify us of your
intent to use this provision before
submitting your applications.
(b) Model year 2014 N2O standards. In
model year 2014 and earlier,
manufacturers may show compliance
with the N2O standards using an
engineering analysis. This allowance
also applies for later families certified
using carryover CO2 data from model
2014 consistent with § 1036.235(d).
(c) Engine cycle classification.
Through model year 2020, engines
meeting the definition of spark-ignition,
but regulated as diesel engines under 40
CFR part 86, must be certified to the
requirements applicable to
compression-ignition engines under this
part. Such engines are deemed to be
compression-ignition engines for
purposes of this part. Similarly, engines
meeting the definition of compressionignition, but regulated as Otto-cycle
under 40 CFR part 86 must be certified
to the requirements applicable to sparkignition engines under this part. Such
engines are deemed to be spark-ignition
engines for purposes of this part. See
§ 1036.140 for provisions that apply for
model year 2021 and later.
(d) Small manufacturers. Standards
apply on a delayed schedule for
manufacturers meeting the small
business criteria specified in 13 CFR
121.201. Apply the small business
criteria for NAICS code 336310 for
engine manufacturers with respect to
gasoline-fueled engines, 333618 for
engine manufacturers with respect to
other engines, and 811198 with respect
to fuel conversions with engines
manufactured by a different company.
Qualifying manufacturers are not
subject to the greenhouse gas emission
standards in § 1036.108 for engines built
before January 1, 2022. In addition,
qualifying manufacturers producing
engines that run on any fuel other than
gasoline, E85, or diesel fuel may delay
complying with every new standard
under this part by one model year.
Small businesses may certify their
engines and generate emission credits
under this part 1036 before standards
start to apply, but only if they certify
their entire U.S.-directed production
volume within that averaging set for that
model year.
(e) Alternate phase-in standards.
Where a manufacturer certifies all of its
model year 2013 compression-ignition
engines within a given primary
intended service class to the applicable
alternate standards of this paragraph (e),
its compression-ignition engines within
that primary intended service class are
subject to the standards of this
paragraph (e) for model years 2013
through 2016. This means that once a
manufacturer chooses to certify a
primary intended service class to the
standards of this paragraph (e), it is not
allowed to opt out of these standards.
Engines certified to these standards are
not eligible for early credits under
paragraph (a) of this section.
Tractors
LHD Engines
MHD Engines
Model Years 2013–2015. ........................
NA ..........................................................
512 g/hp-hr .............................................
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HHD Engines
485 g/hp-hr.
Federal Register / Vol. 80, No. 133 / Monday, July 13, 2015 / Proposed Rules
Tractors
LHD Engines
MHD Engines
Model Years 2016 and later.a .................
Vocational ................................................
Model Years 2013–2015. ........................
Model Years 2016 and later.a .................
NA ..........................................................
LHD Engines ..........................................
618 g/hp-hr .............................................
576 g/hp-hr .............................................
487 g/hp-hr .............................................
MHD Engines .........................................
618 g/hp-hr .............................................
576 g/hp-hr .............................................
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HHD Engines
460 g/hp-hr.
HHD Engines.
577 g/hp-hr.
555 g/hp-hr.
These alternate standards for 2016 and later are the same as the otherwise applicable standards for 2017 and later.
(f) Separate OBD families. This
paragraph (f) applies where you
separately certify engines for the
purpose of applying OBD requirements
(for engines used in vehicles under
14,000 pounds GVWR) from non-OBD
engines that could be certified as a
single engine family. You may treat the
two engine families as a single engine
family in certain respects for the
purpose of this part, as follows:
(1) This paragraph (f) applies only
where the two families are identical in
all respects except for the engine ratings
offered and the inclusion of OBD.
(2) For purposes of this part and 40
CFR part 86, the two families remain
two separate families except for the
following:
(i) Specify the testable configurations
of the non-OBD engine family as the
testable configurations for the OBD
family.
(ii) Submit the same CO2, N2O, and
CH4 emission data for both engine
families.
(g) Assigned deterioration factors.
You may use assigned deterioration
factors (DFs) without performing your
own durability emission tests or
engineering analysis as follows:
(1) You may use an assigned additive
DF of 0.0 g/hp-hr for CO2 emissions
from engines that do not use advanced
or off-cycle technologies. If we
determine it to be consistent with good
engineering judgment, we may allow
you to use an assigned additive DF of
0.0 g/hp-hr for CO2 emissions from your
engines with advanced or off-cycle
technologies.
(2) You may use an assigned additive
DF of 0.020 g/hp-hr for N2O emissions
from any engine through model year
2020, and 0.010 g/hp-hr for later model
years.
(3) You may use an assigned additive
DF of 0.020 g/hp-hr for CH4 emissions
from any engine.
(h) Advanced technology credits. If
you generate credits from model year
2020 and earlier engines certified for
advanced technology you may multiply
these credits by 1.5, except that you may
not apply this multiplier and the earlycredit multiplier of paragraph (a) of this
section.
(i) CO2 credits for low N2O emissions.
If you certify your model year 2014,
2015, or 2016 engines to an N2O FEL
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less than 0.04 g/hp-hr (provided you
measure N2O emissions from your
emission-data engines), you may
generate additional CO2 credits under
this paragraph (i). Calculate the
additional CO2 credits from the
following equation instead of the
equation in § 1036.705:
CO2 Credits (Mg) = (0.04 ¥ FELN2O) ·
(CF) · (Volume) · (UL) · (10¥6) ·
(298)
(j) Alternate standards under 40 CFR
part 86. This paragraph (j) describes
alternate emission standards for engines
certified under 40 CFR 86.1819–
14(k)(8). The standards of § 1036.108 do
not apply for these engines. The
standards in this paragraph (j) apply for
emissions measured with the engine
installed in a complete vehicle
consistent with the provisions of 40 CFR
86.1819–14(k)(8)(vi). The CO2 standard
for the engines equals the test result
specified in 40 CFR 86.1819–14(k)(8)(vi)
multiplied by 1.10 and rounded to the
nearest 0.1 g/mile. The N2O and CH4
standards are both 0.05 g/mile (or any
alternate standards that apply to the
corresponding vehicle test group). The
only requirements of this part that apply
to these engines are those in this
paragraph (j) and those in §§ 1036.115
through 1036.135.
(k) ABT reports. Through model year
2017, you may submit a final report
under § 1036.730 up to 270 days after
the end of the model year, as long as
you send a draft report with the same
information within 90 days after the end
of the model year.
(l) Credit adjustment for sparkignition engines and light heavy-duty
compression-ignition engines. For
emission credits generated from model
year 2020 and earlier spark-ignition
engines and light heavy-duty
compression-ignition engines, multiply
any banked credits that you carry
forward to demonstrate compliance
with model year 2021 and later
standards by 1.36.
(m) Infrequent regeneration. For
model year 2020 and earlier, you may
invalidate any test interval with respect
to CO2 measurements if an infrequent
regeneration event occurs during the
test interval.
(n) Supplying fuel maps. Certifying
engine manufacturers must supply
vehicle manufacturers with fuel maps
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(or powertrain test results) as described
in § 1036.130 for model year 2020
engines.
Subpart C—Certifying Engine Families
§ 1036.205 What must I include in my
application?
Submit an application for certification
as described in 40 CFR 86.007–21, with
the following additional information:
(a) Describe the engine family’s
specifications and other basic
parameters of the engine’s design and
emission controls with respect to
compliance with the requirements of
this part. Describe in detail all system
components for controlling greenhouse
gas emissions, including all auxiliary
emission control devices (AECDs) and
all fuel-system components you will
install on any production or test engine.
Identify the part number of each
component you describe. For this
paragraph (a), treat as separate AECDs
any devices that modulate or activate
differently from each other.
(b) Describe any test equipment and
procedures that you used if you
performed any tests that did not also
involve measurement of criteria
pollutants. Describe any special or
alternate test procedures you used (see
40 CFR 1065.10(c)).
(c) Include the emission-related
installation instructions you will
provide if someone else installs your
engines in their vehicles (see
§ 1036.130).
(d) Describe the label information
specified in § 1036.135. We may require
you to include a copy of the label.
(e) Identify the CO2 FCLs with which
you are certifying engines in the engine
family; also identify any FELs that apply
for CH4 and N2O. The actual U.S.directed production volume of
configurations that have CO2 emission
rates at or below the FCL and CH4 and
N2O emission rates at or below the
applicable standards or FELs must be at
least one percent of your actual (not
projected) U.S.-directed production
volume for the engine family. Identify
configurations within the family that
have emission rates at or below the FCL
and meet the one percent requirement.
For example, if your U.S.-directed
production volume for the engine family
is 10,583 and the U.S.-directed
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production volume for the tested rating
is 75 engines, then you can comply with
this provision by setting your FCL so
that one more rating with a U.S.directed production volume of at least
31 engines meets the FCL. Where
applicable, also identify other testable
configurations required under
§ 1036.230(b)(2).
(f) Identify the engine family’s
deterioration factors and describe how
you developed them (see § 1036.241).
Present any test data you used for this.
(g) Present emission data to show that
you meet emission standards, as
follows:
(1) Present exhaust emission data for
CO2, CH4, and N2O on an emission-data
engine to show that your engines meet
the applicable emission standards we
specify in § 1036.108. Show emission
figures before and after applying
deterioration factors for each engine. In
addition to the composite results, show
individual measurements for cold-start
testing and hot-start testing over the
transient test cycle.
(2) Note that § 1036.235 allows you to
submit an application in certain cases
without new emission data.
(h) State whether your certification is
limited for certain engines. For example,
if you certify heavy heavy-duty engines
to the CO2 standards using only
transient testing, the engines may be
installed only in vocational vehicles.
(i) Unconditionally certify that all the
engines in the engine family comply
with the requirements of this part, other
referenced parts of the CFR, and the
Clean Air Act. Note that § 1036.235
specifies which engines to test to show
that engines in the entire family comply
with the requirements of this part.
(j) Include the information required
by other subparts of this part. For
example, include the information
required by § 1036.725 if you participate
in the ABT program.
(k) Include the warranty statement
and maintenance instructions if we
request them.
(l) Include other applicable
information, such as information
specified in this part or 40 CFR part
1068 related to requests for exemptions.
(m) For imported engines or
equipment, identify the following:
(1) Describe your normal practice for
importing engines. For example, this
may include identifying the names and
addresses of any agents you have
authorized to import your engines.
Engines imported by nonauthorized
agents are not covered by your
certificate.
(2) The location of a test facility in the
United States where you can test your
engines if we select them for testing
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under a selective enforcement audit, as
specified in 40 CFR part 1068, subpart
E.
(n) Include information needed to
certify vehicles to GHG standards under
40 CFR part 1037, as follows:
(1) Identify the engine parameters
used for GEM modeling as described in
40 CFR 1037.520.
(2) Report the measured fuel
consumption rate and NOX emission
level corresponding to each point of the
fuel map and at each measured idle
point as described in § 1036.535.
(3) State whether your application is
intended to cover engine emissions
measured during powertrain testing
under 40 CFR 1037.550; include any
associated test results and powertrain
information. You may omit the fuel map
specified in paragraph (n)(2) of this
section (but not the idle points) if you
certify the powertrain test results. If you
omit the fuel map data, you will be
deemed to not be certifying a fuel map.
§ 1036.210 Preliminary approval before
certification.
If you send us information before you
finish the application, we may review it
and make any appropriate
determinations, especially for questions
related to engine family definitions,
auxiliary emission control devices,
adjustable parameters, deterioration
factors, testing for service accumulation,
and maintenance. Decisions made under
this section are considered to be
preliminary approval, subject to final
review and approval. We will generally
not reverse a decision where we have
given you preliminary approval, unless
we find new information supporting a
different decision. If you request
preliminary approval related to the
upcoming model year or the model year
after that, we will make best-efforts to
make the appropriate determinations as
soon as practicable. We will generally
not provide preliminary approval
related to a future model year more than
two years ahead of time.
§ 1036.225 Amending my application for
certification.
Before we issue you a certificate of
conformity, you may amend your
application to include new or modified
engine configurations, subject to the
provisions of this section. After we have
issued your certificate of conformity,
but before the end of the model year,
you may send us an amended
application requesting that we include
new or modified engine configurations
within the scope of the certificate,
subject to the provisions of this section.
You must amend your application if any
changes occur with respect to any
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information that is included or should
be included in your application.
(a) You must amend your application
before you take any of the following
actions:
(1) Add an engine configuration to an
engine family. In this case, the engine
configuration added must be consistent
with other engine configurations in the
engine family with respect to the criteria
listed in § 1036.230.
(2) Change an engine configuration
already included in an engine family in
a way that may affect emissions, or
change any of the components you
described in your application for
certification. This includes production
and design changes that may affect
emissions any time during the engine’s
lifetime.
(3) Modify an FEL and FCL for an
engine family as described in paragraph
(f) of this section.
(b) To amend your application for
certification, send the relevant
information to the Designated
Compliance Officer.
(1) Describe in detail the addition or
change in the engine model or
configuration you intend to make.
(2) Include engineering evaluations or
data showing that the amended engine
family complies with all applicable
requirements. You may do this by
showing that the original emission-data
engine is still appropriate for showing
that the amended family complies with
all applicable requirements.
(3) If the original emission-data
engine for the engine family is not
appropriate to show compliance for the
new or modified engine configuration,
include new test data showing that the
new or modified engine configuration
meets the requirements of this part.
(4) Include any other information
needed to make your application correct
and complete.
(c) We may ask for more test data or
engineering evaluations. You must give
us these within 30 days after we request
them.
(d) For engine families already
covered by a certificate of conformity,
we will determine whether the existing
certificate of conformity covers your
newly added or modified engine. You
may ask for a hearing if we deny your
request (see § 1036.820).
(e) For engine families already
covered by a certificate of conformity,
you may start producing the new or
modified engine configuration any time
after you send us your amended
application and before we make a
decision under paragraph (d) of this
section. However, if we determine that
the affected engines do not meet
applicable requirements, we will notify
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you to cease production of the engines
and may require you to recall the
engines at no expense to the owner.
Choosing to produce engines under this
paragraph (e) is deemed to be consent to
recall all engines that we determine do
not meet applicable emission standards
or other requirements and to remedy the
nonconformity at no expense to the
owner. If you do not provide
information required under paragraph
(c) of this section within 30 days after
we request it, you must stop producing
the new or modified engines.
(f) You may ask us to approve a
change to your FEL in certain cases after
the start of production, but before the
end of the model year. If you change an
FEL for CO2, your FCL for CO2 is
automatically set to your new FEL
divided by 1.03. The changed FEL may
not apply to engines you have already
introduced into U.S. commerce, except
as described in this paragraph (f). You
may ask us to approve a change to your
FEL in the following cases:
(1) You may ask to raise your FEL for
your engine family at any time. In your
request, you must show that you will
still be able to meet the emission
standards as specified in subparts B and
H of this part. Use the appropriate FELs/
FCLs with corresponding production
volumes to calculate emission credits
for the model year, as described in
subpart H of this part.
(2) You may ask to lower the FEL for
your engine family only if you have test
data from production engines showing
that emissions are below the proposed
lower FEL (or below the proposed FCL
for CO2). The lower FEL/FCL applies
only to engines you produce after we
approve the new FEL/FCL. Use the
appropriate FELs/FCLs with
corresponding production volumes to
calculate emission credits for the model
year, as described in subpart H of this
part.
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§ 1036.230
Selecting engine families.
See 40 CFR 86.001–24 for instructions
on how to divide your product line into
families of engines that are expected to
have similar emission characteristics
throughout the useful life. You must
certify your engines to the standards of
§ 1036.108 using the same engine
families you use for criteria pollutants
under 40 CFR part 86. The following
provisions also apply:
(a) Engines certified as hybrid engines
may not be included in an engine family
with engines with conventional
powertrains. Note that this does not
prevent you from including engines in
a conventional family if they are used in
hybrid vehicles, as long as you certify
them conventionally.
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(b) If you certify engines in the family
for use as both vocational and tractor
engines, you must split your family into
two separate subfamilies. Indicate in the
application for certification that the
engine family is to be split.
(1) Calculate emission credits relative
to the vocational engine standard for the
number of engines sold into vocational
applications and relative to the tractor
engine standard for the number of
engines sold into non-vocational tractor
applications. You may assign the
numbers and configurations of engines
within the respective subfamilies at any
time before submitting the final report
required by § 1036.730. If the family
participates in averaging, banking, or
trading, you must identify the type of
vehicle in which each engine is
installed; we may alternatively allow
you to use statistical methods to
determine this for a fraction of your
engines. Keep records to document this
determination.
(2) If you restrict use of the test
configuration for your split family to
only tractors, or only vocational
vehicles, you must identify a second
testable configuration for the other type
of vehicle (or an unrestricted
configuration). Identify this
configuration in your application for
certification. The FCL for the engine
family applies for this configuration as
well as the primary test configuration.
(c) If you certify in separate engine
families engines that could have been
certified in vocational and tractor
engine subfamilies in the same engine
family, count the two families as one
family for purposes of determining your
obligations with respect to the OBD
requirements and in-use testing
requirements of 40 CFR part 86. Indicate
in the applications for certification that
the two engine families are covered by
this paragraph (c).
(d) Engine configurations within an
engine family must use equivalent
greenhouse gas emission controls.
Unless we approve it, you may not
produce nontested configurations
without the same emission control
hardware included on the tested
configuration. We will only approve it
if you demonstrate that the exclusion of
the hardware does not increase
greenhouse gas emissions.
§ 1036.235 Testing requirements for
certification.
This section describes the emission
testing you must perform to show
compliance with the greenhouse gas
emission standards in § 1036.108.
(a) Select a single emission-data
engine from each engine family as
specified in 40 CFR part 86. The
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standards of this part apply only with
respect to emissions measured from this
tested configuration and other
configurations identified in
§ 1036.205(e). Note that configurations
identified in § 1036.205(e) are
considered to be ‘‘tested configurations’’
whether or not you actually tested them
for certification. However, you must
apply the same (or equivalent) emission
controls to all other engine
configurations in the engine family.
(b) Test your emission-data engines
using the procedures and equipment
specified in subpart F of this part. In the
case of dual-fuel and flexible-fuel
engines, measure emissions when
operating with each type of fuel for
which you intend to certify the engine.
(Note: Measurement of criteria
emissions from flexible-fuel engines
generally involves operation with the
fuel mixture that best represents in-use
operation, or with the fuel mixture with
the highest emissions.) Measure CO2,
CH4, and N2O emissions using the
specified duty cycle(s), including coldstart and hot-start testing as specified in
40 CFR part 86, subpart N. The
following provisions apply regarding
test cycles for demonstrating
compliance with tractor and vocational
standards:
(1) If you are certifying the engine for
use in tractors, you must measure CO2
emissions using the ramped-modal
cycle and measure CH4, and N2O
emissions using the specified transient
cycle.
(2) If you are certifying the engine for
use in vocational applications, you must
measure CO2, CH4, and N2O emissions
using the specified transient duty cycle,
including cold-start and hot-start testing
as specified in 40 CFR part 86, subpart
N.
(3) You may certify your engine
family for both tractor and vocational
use by submitting CO2 emission data
from both ramped-modal and transient
cycle testing and specifying FCLs for
both.
(4) Engines certified for use in tractors
may also be used in vocational vehicles;
however, you may not knowingly
circumvent the intent of this part (to
reduce in-use emissions of CO2) by
certifying engines designed for
vocational vehicles (and rarely used in
tractors) to the ramped-modal cycle and
not the transient cycle. For example, we
would generally not allow you to certify
all your engines to the ramped-modal
cycle without certifying any to the
transient cycle.
(c) We may measure emissions from
any of your emission-data engines.
(1) We may decide to do the testing
at your plant or any other facility. If we
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do this, you must deliver the engine to
a test facility we designate. The engine
you provide must include appropriate
manifolds, aftertreatment devices,
electronic control units, and other
emission-related components not
normally attached directly to the engine
block. If we do the testing at your plant,
you must schedule it as soon as possible
and make available the instruments,
personnel, and equipment we need.
(2) If we measure emissions on your
engine, the results of that testing
become the official emission results for
the engine. Unless we later invalidate
these data, we may decide not to
consider your data in determining if
your engine family meets applicable
requirements. This applies equally to
testing for fuel maps under § 1036.535
and to engine-based powertrain testing
under § 1036.630 and 40 CFR 1037.550,
except that the results of our testing at
individual test points do not become the
official emission result if they are lower
than your declared values.
(3) Before we test one of your engines,
we may set its adjustable parameters to
any point within the physically
adjustable ranges.
(4) Before we test one of your engines,
we may calibrate it within normal
production tolerances for anything we
do not consider an adjustable parameter.
For example, this would apply for an
engine parameter that is subject to
production variability because it is
adjustable during production, but is not
considered an adjustable parameter (as
defined in § 1036.801) because it is
permanently sealed. For parameters that
relate to a level of performance that is
itself subject to a specified range (such
as maximum power output), we will
generally perform any calibration under
this paragraph (c)(4) in a way that keeps
performance within the specified range.
(d) You may ask to use carryover
emission data from a previous model
year instead of doing new tests, but only
if all the following are true:
(1) The engine family from the
previous model year differs from the
current engine family only with respect
to model year, items identified in
§ 1036.225(a), or other characteristics
unrelated to emissions. We may waive
this criterion for differences we
determine not to be relevant.
(2) The emission-data engine from the
previous model year remains the
appropriate emission-data engine under
paragraph (b) of this section.
(3) The data show that the emissiondata engine would meet all the
requirements that apply to the engine
family covered by the application for
certification.
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(e) We may require you to test a
second engine of the same configuration
in addition to the engine tested under
paragraph (a) of this section.
(f) If you use an alternate test
procedure under 40 CFR 1065.10 and
later testing shows that such testing
does not produce results that are
equivalent to the procedures specified
in subpart F of this part, we may reject
data you generated using the alternate
procedure.
§ 1036.241 Demonstrating compliance with
greenhouse gas emission standards.
(a) For purposes of certification, your
engine family is considered in
compliance with the emission standards
in § 1036.108 if all emission-data
engines representing the tested
configuration of that engine family have
test results showing official emission
results and deteriorated emission levels
at or below the standards. Note that
your FCLs are considered to be the
applicable emission standards with
which you must comply for
certification.
(b) Your engine family is deemed not
to comply if any emission-data engine
representing the tested configuration of
that engine family has test results
showing an official emission result or a
deteriorated emission level for any
pollutant that is above an applicable
emission standard (generally the FCL).
Note that you may increase your FCL if
any certification test results exceed your
initial FCL.
(c) Apply deterioration factors to the
measured emission levels for each
pollutant to show compliance with the
applicable emission standards. Your
deterioration factors must take into
account any available data from in-use
testing with similar engines. Apply
deterioration factors as follows:
(1) Additive deterioration factor for
greenhouse gas emissions. Except as
specified in paragraphs (c)(2) and (3) of
this section, use an additive
deterioration factor for exhaust
emissions. An additive deterioration
factor is the difference between the
highest exhaust emissions (typically at
the end of the useful life) and exhaust
emissions at the low-hour test point. In
these cases, adjust the official emission
results for each tested engine at the
selected test point by adding the factor
to the measured emissions. If the factor
is less than zero, use zero. Additive
deterioration factors must be specified
to one more decimal place than the
applicable standard.
(2) Multiplicative deterioration factor
for greenhouse gas emissions. Use a
multiplicative deterioration factor for a
pollutant if good engineering judgment
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calls for the deterioration factor for that
pollutant to be the ratio of the highest
exhaust emissions (typically at the end
of the useful life) to exhaust emissions
at the low-hour test point. Adjust the
official emission results for each tested
engine at the selected test point by
multiplying the measured emissions by
the deterioration factor. If the factor is
less than one, use one. A multiplicative
deterioration factor may not be
appropriate in cases where testing
variability is significantly greater than
engine-to-engine variability.
Multiplicative deterioration factors must
be specified to one more significant
figure than the applicable standard.
(3) Sawtooth deterioration patterns.
The deterioration factors described in
paragraphs (c)(1) and (2) of this section
assume that the highest useful life
emissions occur either at the end of
useful life or at the low-hour test point.
The provisions of this paragraph (c)(3)
apply where good engineering judgment
indicates that the highest useful life
emissions will occur between these two
points. For example, emissions may
increase with service accumulation
until a certain maintenance step is
performed, then return to the low-hour
emission levels and begin increasing
again. Such a pattern may occur with
battery-based electric hybrid engines.
Base deterioration factors for engines
with such emission patterns on the
difference between (or ratio of) the point
of the sawtooth at which the highest
emissions occur and the low-hour test
point. Note that this applies for
maintenance-related deterioration only
where we allow such critical emissionrelated maintenance.
(4) [Reserved]
(5) Dual-fuel and flexible-fuel engines.
In the case of dual-fuel and flexible-fuel
engines, apply deterioration factors
separately for each fuel type by
measuring emissions with each fuel
type at each test point. You may
accumulate service hours on a single
emission-data engine using the type of
fuel or the fuel mixture expected to have
the highest combustion and exhaust
temperatures; you may ask us to
approve a different fuel mixture if you
demonstrate that a different criterion is
more appropriate.
(d) Calculate emission data using
measurements to at least one more
decimal place than the applicable
standard. Apply the deterioration factor
to the official emission result, as
described in paragraph (c) of this
section, then round the adjusted figure
to the same number of decimal places as
the emission standard. Compare the
rounded emission levels to the emission
standard for each emission-data engine.
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(e) If you identify more than one
configuration in § 1036.205(e), we may
test (or require you to test) any of the
identified configurations. We may also
require you to provide an engineering
analysis that demonstrates that untested
configurations listed in § 1036.205(e)
comply with their FCL.
§ 1036.250 Reporting and recordkeeping
for certification.
(a) Within 90 days after the end of the
model year, send the Designated
Compliance Officer a report including
the total U.S.-directed production
volume of engines you produced in each
engine family during the model year
(based on information available at the
time of the report). Report the
production by serial number and engine
configuration. Small manufacturers may
omit this requirement. You may
combine this report with reports
required under subpart H of this part.
(b) Organize and maintain the
following records:
(1) A copy of all applications and any
summary information you send us.
(2) Any of the information we specify
in § 1036.205 that you were not required
to include in your application.
(c) Keep routine data from emission
tests required by this part (such as test
cell temperatures and relative humidity
readings) for one year after we issue the
associated certificate of conformity.
Keep all other information specified in
this section for eight years after we issue
your certificate.
(d) Store these records in any format
and on any media, as long as you can
promptly send us organized, written
records in English if we ask for them.
You must keep these records readily
available. We may review them at any
time.
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§ 1036.255 What decisions may EPA make
regarding my certificate of conformity?
(a) If we determine your application is
complete and shows that the engine
family meets all the requirements of this
part and the Act, we will issue a
certificate of conformity for your engine
family for that model year. We may
make the approval subject to additional
conditions.
(b) We may deny your application for
certification if we determine that your
engine family fails to comply with
emission standards or other
requirements of this part or the Clean
Air Act. We will base our decision on
all available information. If we deny
your application, we will explain why
in writing.
(c) In addition, we may deny your
application or suspend or revoke your
certificate if you do any of the
following:
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(1) Refuse to comply with any testing
or reporting requirements.
(2) Submit false or incomplete
information (paragraph (e) of this
section applies if this is fraudulent).
This includes doing anything after
submission of your application to
render any of the submitted information
false or incomplete.
(3) Render inaccurate any test data.
(4) Deny us from completing
authorized activities (see 40 CFR
1068.20). This includes a failure to
provide reasonable assistance.
(5) Produce engines for importation
into the United States at a location
where local law prohibits us from
carrying out authorized activities.
(6) Fail to supply requested
information or amend your application
to include all engines being produced.
(7) Take any action that otherwise
circumvents the intent of the Act or this
part, with respect to your engine family.
(d) We may void the certificate of
conformity for an engine family if you
fail to keep records, send reports, or give
us information as required under this
part or the Act. Note that these are also
violations of 40 CFR 1068.101(a)(2).
(e) We may void your certificate if we
find that you intentionally submitted
false or incomplete information. This
includes rendering submitted
information false or incomplete after
submission.
(f) If we deny your application or
suspend, revoke, or void your
certificate, you may ask for a hearing
(see § 1036.820).
Subpart D—Testing Production
Engines
§ 1036.301 Measurements related to GEM
inputs in a selective enforcement audit.
(a) Selective enforcement audits apply
for engines as specified in 40 CFR part
1068, subpart E. This section describes
how this applies uniquely in certain
circumstances.
(b) Selective enforcement audit
provisions apply with respect to your
fuel maps as follows:
(1) A selective enforcement audit for
fuel maps would consist of performing
measurements with production engines
to determine the fuel-consumption rates
at each of the specified points under the
engine map as declared for GEM
simulations, and running GEM over one
or more applicable duty cycles based on
those measured values, using GEM
inputs that represent any applicable
vehicle configuration for which the
engine is being used. The engine is
considered passing for a given
configuration if the new modeled
emission result for every applicable
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duty cycle is at or below the modeled
emission result corresponding to the
declared GEM inputs.
(2) We may specify up to ten unique
vehicle configurations for an audit to
verify that an engine’s fuel map is part
of a complying certified engine
configuration. If the audit includes fuelmap testing in conjunction with engine
testing relative to exhaust emission
standards, the fuel-map simulations for
the whole set of vehicles and duty
cycles counts as a single test result for
purposes of evaluating whether the
engine family meets the pass-fail criteria
under 40 CFR 1068.420. If the audit
includes only fuel-map testing, the fuelmap simulation for each vehicle
configuration counts as a separate test
for the engine.
(c) If your certification includes
powertrain testing as specified in 40
CFR 1036.630, the selective enforcement
audit provisions apply with respect to
powertrain test results as specified in 40
CFR 1037.301 and 1037.550. We may
allow manufacturers to instead perform
the engine-based testing to simulate the
powertrain test as specified in 40 CFR
1037.551.
(d) We may suspend or revoke
certificates, based on the outcome of a
selective enforcement audit, for any
appropriate configurations within one
or more engine families.
Subpart E—In-Use Testing
§ 1036.401
In-use testing.
We may perform in-use testing of any
engine family subject to the standards of
this part, consistent with the Clean Air
Act and the provisions of § 1036.235.
Note that this provision does not affect
your obligation to test your in-use
engines as described in 40 CFR part 86,
subpart T.
Subpart F—Test Procedures
§ 1036.501
test?
How do I run a valid emission
(a) Use the equipment and procedures
specified in 40 CFR 86.1305 to
determine whether engines meet the
emission standards in § 1036.108. These
same procedures apply for determining
engine fuel maps and fuel consumption
at idle as specified in § 1036.535. These
procedures also apply for engine-based
measurement procedures to simulate
powertrain testing as specified in 40
CFR 1037.551.
(b) You may use special or alternate
procedures to the extent we allow them
under 40 CFR 1065.10.
(c) This subpart is addressed to you as
a manufacturer, but it applies equally to
anyone who does testing for you, and to
us when we perform testing to
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(a) If your engine system includes
features that recover and store energy
during engine motoring operation, test
the engine as described in paragraph (d)
of this section. For purposes of this
section, features that recover energy
between the engine and transmission
are considered related to engine
motoring.
(b) If you produce a hybrid engine
designed with power take-off capability
and sell the engine coupled with a
transmission, you may calculate a
reduction in CO2 emissions resulting
from the power take-off operation as
described in 40 CFR 1037.525. Use good
engineering judgment to use the vehiclebased procedures to quantify the CO2
reduction for your engines.
(c) The hardware that must be
included in these tests is the engine, the
hybrid electric motor, the rechargeable
energy storage system (RESS) and the
power electronics between the hybrid
electric motor and the RESS. You may
ask us to modify the provisions of this
section to allow testing non-electric
hybrid vehicles, consistent with good
engineering judgment.
(d) Measure emissions using the same
procedures that apply for testing nonhybrid engines under this part, except
as specified otherwise in this part and/
or 40 CFR part 1065. If you test hybrid
engines using the ramped-modal cycle,
deactivate the hybrid features unless we
have specified otherwise. The five
differences that apply under this section
are related to engine mapping, engine
shutdown during the test cycle,
calculating work, limits on braking
energy, and state of charge constraints.
(1) Map the engine as specified in 40
CFR 1065.510. This requires separate
torque maps for the engine with and
without the hybrid features active. For
transient testing, denormalize the test
cycle using the map generated with the
hybrid feature active. For steady-state
testing, denormalize the test cycle using
the map generated with the hybrid
feature inactive.
(2) If the engine will be configured in
actual use to shut down automatically
during idle operation, you may let the
engine shut down during the idle
portions of the test cycle.
(3) Follow 40 CFR 1065.650(d) to
calculate the work done over the cycle
except as specified in this paragraph
(d)(3). For the positive work over the
cycle, set negative hybrid power to zero.
For the negative work over the cycle set
the positive power to zero and the set
the non-hybrid power to zero.
(4) Calculate brake energy fraction, xb,
as follows:
(i) Calculate xb as the integrated
negative work over the cycle divided by
the integrated positive work over the
cycle according to Equation 1036.525–1.
Calculate the brake energy limit for the
engine, xbl, according to Equation
1036.525–2. If xb is less than xbl, use the
integrated positive work for your
emission calculations. If xb is greater
than xbl use Equation 1036.525–3 to
calculate the positive work done over
the cycle. Use Wcycle as the integrated
positive work when calculating brakespecific emissions. To avoid the need to
delete extra brake work from positive
work you may set an instantaneous
brake target that will prevent xb from
being larger than xbl.
(ii) The following definitions apply
for this paragraph (d)(4):
Wcycle = the work over the cycle when xb is
greater than xbl.
xb = the brake energy fraction.
Wneg = the negative work over the cycle.
Wpos = the positive work over the cycle.
xbl = the brake energy fraction limit.
Pmax = the maximum power of the engine
with the hybrid system engaged (kW).
(iii) Note that these calculations are
specified with SI units (such as kW),
consistent with 40 CFR part 1065.
Emission results are converted to g/hphr at the end of the calculations.
(5) Correct for the net energy change
of the energy storage device as described
in 40 CFR 1066.501.
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§ 1036.530 Calculating greenhouse gas
emission rates.
This section describes how to
calculate official emission results for
CO2, CH4, and N2O.
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determine if your engines meet emission
standards.
(d) For engines that use aftertreatment
technology with infrequent regeneration
events, apply infrequent regeneration
adjustment factors as described in
§ 1036.530.
(e) Test hybrid engines as described in
§ 1036.525 and 40 CFR part 1065.
(f) Determine engine fuel maps and
fuel consumption at idle as described in
§ 1036.535.
(g) The following additional
provisions apply for testing to
demonstrate compliance with the
emission standards in § 1036.108 for
model year 2021 and later engines:
(1) When calculating total engine
work, exclude work during any portion
of the duty cycle that has a zero
reference value for normalized torque.
(2) If your engine is intended for
installation in a vehicle equipped with
stop-start technology, you may use good
engineering judgment to turn the engine
off during the idle portions of the duty
cycle to represent in-use operation,
consistent with good engineering
judgment.
(3) Use continuous sampling (not
batch sampling) to measure CO2
emissions over the ramped-modal cycle
specified in 40 CFR 86.1362. Integrate
the test results by mode to establish
separate emission rates for each mode
(including the transition following each
mode, as applicable). Apply the
weighting factors specified in 40 CFR
86.1362 to calculate a composite
emission result.
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within a fuel type. Use good engineering
judgment to develop and apply testing
protocols to minimize the impact of
variations in test fuels.
(1) Determine mass-specific net
energy content, Emfuelmeas, also known as
lower heating value, in MJ/kg, expressed
to at least three decimal places, as
follows:
(i) For liquid fuels, determine
Emfuelmeas according to ASTM D4809
(recommended) or ASTM D240 (both
incorporated by reference in
§ 1036.810).
(ii) For gaseous fuels, determine
Emfuelmeas using good engineering
judgment.
(iii) If you determine based on good
engineering judgment that your careful
control of test fuel properties causes
Where:
eCO2 = the calculated CO2 emission result.
Emfuelmeas = the mass-specific net energy
content of the test fuel as determined by
paragraph (b)(1) of this section.
EmfuelCref = the reference value of carbonspecific net energy content for the
appropriate fuel, as determined in Table
1 of this section.
wCmeas = carbon mass fraction of the test fuel
as determined under paragraph (b)(2) of
this section.
Example:
described in paragraph (c) of this
section. Use these measured fuelconsumption values to declare fuelconsumption rates for certification as
Reference
fuel carbondescribed in paragraph (d) of this
mass-speReference
section. Also measure NOX emissions
cific net enfuel carbon
Fuel Typea
(in g/s) during each of the specified
ergy conmass fracsampling periods consistent with the
tent,
tion, wCref
EmfuelCref,
data requirements 40 CFR part 86,
(MJ/kgC)
subpart T. Perform emission
measurements as described in 40 CFR
Gasoline ............
50.4742
0.846
Natural Gas ......
66.2910
0.750 1065.530 for discrete-mode steady-state
LPG ...................
56.5218
0.820 testing. Control engine speed and torque
Dimethyl Ether ..
55.3886
0.521 to within ±20 rpm and ±20 N·m, or 20
percent of the speed and torque
a For fuels that are not listed, you must ask
setpoint, whichever is greater. This
us to approve a reference fuel and its
section uses engine parameters and
properties.
variables that are consistent with 40
(c) Your official CO2 emission result
CFR part 1065. For molar mass values,
equals your calculated brake-specific
see 40 CFR 1065.1005.
emission rate multiplied by all
(b) Steady-state fuel mapping.
applicable adjustment factors, other
Determine fuel-consumption rates for
than the deterioration factor.
each engine configuration over a series
of steady-state engine operating points
§ 1036.535 Determining engine fuel maps
and fuel consumption at idle.
as described in this paragraph (b). You
may use shared data across an engine
This section describes procedures for
platform to the extent that the fueldetermining an engine’s fuelconsumption rates remain valid. For
consumption rate for model year 2021
example, if you test a high-output
and later vehicles. Note that vehicle
configuration and create a different
manufacturers will generally use these
configuration that uses the same fueling
values to demonstrate compliance with
strategy but limits the engine operation
vehicle-based Phase 2 emission
to be a subset of that from the highstandards that rely on emission
output configuration, you may use the
modeling using the GEM simulation
fuel-consumption rates for the reduced
tool, as described in 40 CFR 1037.510.
number of mapped points for the low(a) General test provisions. Perform
output configuration, as long as the
fuel mapping using the procedure
narrower map includes at least 100
described in paragraph (b) of this
points. Perform fuel mapping as follows:
section to establish measured fuelconsumption rates at a range of engine
(1) Select 13 speed points that include
speed and load settings. Measure fuel
warm idle speed, fnidle, the highest speed
consumption at idle using the procedure above maximum power at which 70% of
Reference
fuel carbonmass-specific net energy content,
EmfuelCref,
(MJ/kgC)
Fuel Typea
Diesel fuel .........
VerDate Sep<11>2014
Reference
fuel carbon
mass fraction, wCref
49.3112
0.874
06:45 Jul 11, 2015
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TABLE 1 OF § 1036.530—REFERENCE
FUEL PROPERTIES—Continued
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TABLE 1 OF § 1036.530—REFERENCE
FUEL PROPERTIES
variations in the actual mass-specific
energy content and carbon mass fraction
to be the same as or smaller than the
repeatability of measuring those values,
you may use constant values equal to
the average values for your test fuel. If
you use a constant value, you must
update or verify the value at least once
per year, or after changes in test fuel
suppliers or specifications.
(2) Determine your test fuel’s carbon
mass fraction, wC as described in 40
CFR 1065.655(d), expressed to at least
three decimal places; however, you
must measure fuel properties rather
than using the default values specified
in Table 1 of 40 CFR 1065.655.
(3) Correct measured CO2 emission
rates as follows:
EP13JY15.030
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(a) Calculate brake-specific emission
rates for each applicable duty cycle as
specified in 40 CFR 1065.650. Apply
infrequent regeneration adjustment
factors to your cycle-average results as
described in 40 CFR 86.004–28 for CO2
starting in model year 2021. You may
optionally apply infrequent regeneration
adjustment factors for CH4 and N2O.
(b) Adjust CO2 emission rates
calculated under paragraph (a) of this
section for measured test fuel properties
as specified in this paragraph (b) to
obtain the official emission results. You
are not required to apply this
adjustment for fuels containing at least
75 percent pure alcohol, such as E85.
The purpose of this adjustment is to
make official emission results
independent of differences in test fuels
40594
Federal Register / Vol. 80, No. 133 / Monday, July 13, 2015 / Proposed Rules
Ô
mCO2urea = the mean CO2 mass emission rate
from urea decomposition as described in
paragraph (b)(9) of this section. If your
engine does not utilize urea SCR for
emission control, or if you choose not to
Ô
perform this correction, set mCO2urea
equal to 0.
MCO2 = molar mass of carbon dioxide.
Example:
(9) If you determine fuel-consumption rates
using emission measurements with engines
that have urea SCR for NOX control, you may
correct for the mean CO2 emissions coming
Ô
from urea decomposition, mCO2urea, at each
fuel map setpoint using the following
equation:
Where:
¯
murea = the mean mass flow rate of injected
urea solution for a given sampling
period.
MCO2 = molar mass of carbon dioxide.
MFCH4N2O = mass fraction of urea in aqueous
solution. Note that the subscript
‘‘CH4N2O’’ refers to urea as a pure
compound and the subscript ‘‘urea’’
refers to the aqueous urea solution.
MCH4N2O = molar mass of urea.
Example:
Ô
murea= 0. 304 g/s
MCO2 = 44.0095 g/mol
MFCH4N2O = 32.5% = 0.325
MCH4N2O = 60.05526 g/mol
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13JYP2
EP13JY15.033
to determine a, b, and wC for liquid
fuels.
nexh = the mean raw exhaust molar flow rate
from which you measured emissions
according to 40 CFR 1065.655.
xCcombdry = the mean concentration of carbon
from fuel in the exhaust per mole of dry
exhaust.
¯
xH2Oexhdry = the mean concentration of H2O in
exhaust per mole of dry exhaust.
EP13JY15.034
next lowest speed value and increase
torque to Tmax. Perform measurements
for all the torque values at the selected
speed as described in paragraphs (b)(5)
and (6) of this section. Repeat this
sequence for all remaining speed values
down to fnidle to complete the fuelmapping procedure. You may interrupt
the mapping sequence to calibrate
emission-measurement instrumentation
only during stabilization at Tmax for a
given speed.
(ii) If an infrequent regeneration event
occurs during fuel mapping, invalidate
all the measurements made at that
engine speed. Allow the regeneration
event to finish, then restart engine
stabilization at Tmax at the same engine
speed and continue with measurements
from that point in the fuel-mapping
sequence.
(8) If you determine fuel-consumption
rates using emission measurements from
the raw or diluted exhaust, calculate the
mean fuel mass flow rate,, for each point
in the fuel map using the following
equation:
EP13JY15.032
recording measurements using one of
the following methods:
(i) Carbon mass balance. Record
speed and torque and measure
emissions of CO2, CO, NMHC, and CH4
for (29 to 31) seconds and determine the
corresponding mean values for the
sampling period.
(ii) Direct measurement of fuel flow.
Record speed and torque and measure
fuel consumption with a fuel flow meter
for (29 to 31) seconds and determine the
corresponding mean values for the
sampling period.
(6) Within 15 seconds after
completing the sampling period
described in paragraph (b)(5) of this
section, set the engine to operate at the
next lowest torque value while holding
speed constant. Perform the
measurements described at the new
torque setting and repeat this sequence
for all remaining torque values down to
T = 0.
(7) Continue testing to complete fuel
mapping as follows:
(i) Within 15 seconds after sampling
at T = 0, set the engine to operate at the
Where:
mfuel = mean fuel mass flow rate for a given
fuel map setpoint, expressed to at least
the nearest 0.001 g/s.
MC = molar mass of carbon.
wCmeas = carbon mass fraction of fuel as
determined by 40 CFR 1065.655(d),
except that you may not use the default
properties in Table 1 of 40 CFR 1065.655
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maximum power occurs, nhi, and 11
equally spaced points between fnidle and
nhi. If operating the engine at the
specified speeds causes unstable engine
operation due to operating on the low or
high speed governor you may adjust the
speed setpoint for those points as
needed. Typically this would only
happen at fnidle above zero torque and nhi
at 100% torque. fnidle and zero torque
must be one of the test points.
(2) Select 11 normalized torque values
at each of the speed points determined
in paragraph (b)(1) of this section,
including T = 0, maximum mapped
torque, Tmax mapped, and 9 equally spaced
points between T = 0 and Tmax mapped.
Normalized torque values are expressed
as a percentage of Tmax mapped at a given
engine speed.
(3) Warm up the engine as described
in 40 CFR 1065.510(b)(2).
(4) Within 60 seconds after
concluding the warm-up procedure,
operate the engine at fntest and the
highest torque value, Tmax, at that speed.
(5) After the engine operates at the set
speed and torque for 60 seconds, start
Federal Register / Vol. 80, No. 133 / Monday, July 13, 2015 / Proposed Rules
40595
Ô
mass flow rate, mfuel at each engine
operating condition to a mass-specific
net energy content of a reference fuel
using the following equation and the
values specified in Table 1 of
§ 1036.530:
Example:
Ô
mfuel = 0.933 g/s
Emfuelmeas = 42.7984 MJ/kgC
wCref = 0.874
EmfuelCref = 49.3112 MJ/kgC
(c) Fuel consumption at idle.
Determine values for fuel-consumption
rate at idle for each engine configuration
as described in this paragraph (c). You
may use shared data across engine
configurations, consistent with good
engineering judgment. Perform
measurements as follows:
(1) Warm up the engine as described
in 40 CFR 1065.510(b)(2).
(2) Within 60 seconds after
concluding the warm-up procedure,
operate the engine at its minimum
declared warm idle speed, fnidlemin, as
described in 40 CFR 1065.510(b)(3), set
zero torque, and start the sampling
period. Continue sampling for (595 to
605) seconds. Perform measurements
using one of the following methods
during the sampling period:
(i) Carbon mass balance. Record
speed and torque and measure
emissions of CO2, CO, NMHC, and CH4
and determine the corresponding mean
values for the sampling period.
Calculate the mean fuel mass flow rate,
Ô
mfuel, during the sampling period as
described in paragraph (b)(8) of this
section.
(ii) Direct measurement of fuel flow.
Record speed and torque and measure
fuel consumption with a fuel flow meter
and determine the corresponding mean
values for the sampling period.
(3) Repeat the steps in paragraphs
(c)(1) and (2) of this section with the
engine set to operate at idle torque, Tidle.
Determine Tidle using the following
equation:
Where:
Tfnstall = the maximum engine torque at fnstall.
fnidle = the applicable engine idle speed as
described in this paragraph (c).
fnstall = the stall speed of the torque converter;
use fntest or 2250 rpm, whichever is
lower.
Pacc = accessory power for the vehicle class;
use 1300 W.
Example:
fntest = 1740.8 rpm = 182.30 rad/s
fnstall = 1740.8 rpm = 182.30 rad/s
Tfnstall = 1870 N·m
Pacc = 1300 W
fnidle = 600 rpm = 62.83 rad/s
(4) Repeat the steps in paragraphs
(c)(1) through (3) of this section with the
engine operated at its declared
maximum warm idle speed, fnidlemax.
(5) If an infrequent regeneration event
occurs during this procedure, invalidate
any measurements made at that idle
condition. Allow the regeneration event
to finish, then repeat the measurement
and continue with the test sequence.
(6) Correct the measured or calculated
Ô
mean fuel mass flow rate, mfuel at each
of the four idle settings to account for
mass-specific net energy content as
described in paragraph (b)(10) of this
section.
(d) Measured vs. declared fuelconsumption rates. Select fuelconsumption rates (g/s) to characterize
the engine’s fuel map and fuelconsumption rate at idle. These
declared values may not be lower than
any corresponding measured values
determined in paragraphs (b) and (c) of
this section. You may select any value
that is at or above the corresponding
measured value. Use good engineering
judgment to select values that will be at
or below the fuel-consumption rates for
your production engines. These
declared fuel-consumption rates are the
values that vehicle manufacturers will
use for certification. Note that
production engines are subject to GEM
cycle-weighted limits as described in
§ 1036.301.
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(10) For all fuels except those that
have at least 75% pure alcohol, correct
the measured or calculated mean fuel
40596
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Subpart G—Special Compliance
Provisions
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§ 1036.601
apply?
What compliance provisions
(a) Engine and vehicle manufacturers,
as well as owners, operators, and
rebuilders of engines subject to the
requirements of this part, and all other
persons, must observe the provisions of
this part, the provisions of 40 CFR part
1068, and the provisions of the Clean
Air Act. The provisions of 40 CFR part
1068 apply for heavy-duty highway
engines as specified in that part, subject
to the following provisions:
(1) The hardship exemption
provisions of 40 CFR 1068.245,
1068.250, and 1068.255 do not apply for
motor vehicle engines.
(2) The provisions of 40 CFR 1068.235
that allow for modifying certified
engines for competition do not apply for
heavy-duty vehicles or heavy-duty
engines. Certified motor vehicles and
motor vehicle engines and their
emission control devices must remain in
their certified configuration even if they
are used solely for competition or if they
become nonroad vehicles or engines;
anyone modifying a certified motor
vehicle or motor vehicle engine for any
reason is subject to the tampering and
defeat device prohibitions of 40 CFR
1068.101(b) and 42 U.S.C. 7522(a)(3).
Note that a new engine that will be
installed in a vehicle that will be used
solely for competition may be excluded
from the requirements of this part based
on a determination that the vehicle is
not a motor vehicle under 40 CFR
85.1703.
(3) The tampering prohibition in 40
CFR 1068.101(b)(1) applies for
alternative fuel conversions as specified
in 40 CFR part 85, subpart F.
(4) The warranty-related prohibitions
in section 203(a)(4) of the Act (42 U.S.C.
7522(a)(4)) apply to manufacturers of
new heavy-duty highway engines in
addition to the prohibitions described in
40 CFR 1068.101(b)(6). We may assess a
civil penalty up to $37,500 for each
engine or vehicle in violation.
(b) Engines exempted from the
applicable standards of 40 CFR part 86
are exempt from the standards of this
part without request.
(c) The emergency vehicle field
modification provisions of 40 CFR
85.1716 apply with respect to the
standards of this part.
(d) Subpart C of this part describes
how to test and certify dual-fuel and
flexible-fuel engines. Some multi-fuel
engines may not fit either of those
defined terms. For such engines, we will
determine whether it is most
appropriate to treat them as single-fuel
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engines, dual-fuel engines, or flexiblefuel engines based on the range of
possible and expected fuel mixtures. For
example, an engine might burn natural
gas but initiate combustion with a pilot
injection of diesel fuel. If the engine is
designed to operate with a single fueling
algorithm (i.e., fueling rates are fixed at
a given engine speed and load
condition), we would generally treat it
as a single-fuel engine. In this context,
the combination of diesel fuel and
natural gas would be its own fuel type.
If the engine is designed to also operate
on diesel fuel alone, we would generally
treat it as a dual-fueled engine. If the
engine is designed to operate on varying
mixtures of the two fuels, we would
generally treat it as a flexible-fueled
engine. To the extent that requirements
vary for the different fuels or fuel
mixtures, we may apply the more
stringent requirements.
§ 1036.610 Off-cycle technology credits
and adjustments for reducing greenhouse
gas emissions.
(a) You may ask us to apply the
provisions of this section for CO2
emission reductions resulting from
powertrain technologies that were not in
common use with heavy-duty vehicles
before model year 2010 that are not
reflected in the specified test procedure.
We will apply these provisions only for
technologies that will result in a
measurable, demonstrable, and
verifiable real-world CO2 reduction.
Note that prior to MY 2016, these
technologies were referred to as
‘‘innovative technologies’’.
(b) The provisions of this section may
be applied as either an improvement
factor (used to adjust emission results)
or as a separate credit within the engine
family, consistent with good
engineering judgment. Note that the
term ‘‘credit’’ in this section describes
an additive adjustment to emission rates
and is not equivalent to an emission
credit in the ABT program of subpart H
of this part. We recommend that you
base your credit/adjustment on A to B
testing of pairs of engines/vehicles
differing only with respect to the
technology in question.
(1) Calculate improvement factors as
the ratio of in-use emissions with the
technology divided by the in-use
emissions without the technology.
Adjust the emission results by
multiplying by the improvement factor.
Use the improvement-factor approach
where good engineering judgment
indicates that the actual benefit will be
proportional to emissions measured
over the test procedures specified in this
part. For example, the benefits from
technologies that reduce engine
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operation would generally be
proportional to the engine’s emission
rate.
(2) Calculate separate credits based on
the difference between the in-use
emission rate (g/ton-mile) with the
technology and the in-use emission rate
without the technology. Subtract this
value from your measured emission
result and use this adjusted value to
determine your FEL. We may also allow
you to calculate the credits based on
g/hp-hr emission rates. Use the separatecredit approach where good engineering
judgment indicates that the actual
benefit will not be proportional to
emissions measured over the test
procedures specified in this part.
(3) We may require you to discount or
otherwise adjust your improvement
factor or credit to account for
uncertainty or other relevant factors.
(c) Send your request to the
Designated Compliance Officer. We
recommend that you do not begin
collecting test data (for submission to
EPA) before contacting us. For
technologies for which the vehicle
manufacturer could also claim credits
(such as transmissions in certain
circumstances), we may require you to
include a letter from the vehicle
manufacturer stating that it will not seek
credits for the same technology. Your
request must contain the following
items:
(1) A detailed description of the offcycle technology and how it functions
to reduce CO2 emissions under
conditions not represented on the duty
cycles required for certification.
(2) A list of the engine configurations
that will be equipped with the
technology.
(3) A detailed description and
justification of the selected test engines.
(4) All testing and simulation data
required under this section, plus any
other data you have considered in your
analysis. You may ask for our
preliminary approval of your test plan
under § 1036.210.
(5) A complete description of the
methodology used to estimate the offcycle benefit of the technology and all
supporting data, including engine
testing and in-use activity data. Also
include a statement regarding your
recommendation for applying the
provisions of this section for the given
technology as an improvement factor or
a credit.
(6) An estimate of the off-cycle benefit
by engine model, and the fleetwide
benefit based on projected sales of
engine models equipped with the
technology.
(7) A demonstration of the in-use
durability of the off-cycle technology,
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Federal Register / Vol. 80, No. 133 / Monday, July 13, 2015 / Proposed Rules
based on any available engineering
analysis or durability testing data (either
by testing components or whole
engines).
(d) We may seek public comment on
your request, consistent with the
provisions of 40 CFR 86.1869–12(d).
However, we will generally not seek
public comment on credits/adjustments
based on A to B engine dynamometer
testing, chassis testing, or in-use testing.
(e) We may approve an improvement
factor or credit for any engine family
that is properly represented by your
testing. You may similarly continue to
use an approved improvement factor or
credit for any appropriate engine
families in future model years through
2020. Starting in model year 2021, you
must request our approval before
applying an improvement factor or
credit under this section for any kind of
technology, even if we approved an
improvement factor or credit for similar
engine models before model year 2021.
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§ 1036.615 Engines with Rankine cycle
waste heat recovery and hybrid
powertrains.
This section specifies how to generate
advanced technology-specific emission
credits for hybrid powertrains that
include energy storage systems and
regenerative braking (including
regenerative engine braking) and for
engines that include Rankine-cycle (or
other bottoming cycle) exhaust energy
recovery systems. This section applies
only for model year 2020 and earlier
engines.
(a) Pre-transmission hybrid
powertrains. Test pre-transmission
hybrid powertrains with the hybrid
engine test procedures of 40 CFR part
1065 or with the post-transmission test
procedures in 40 CFR 1037.550. Pretransmission hybrid powertrains are
those engine systems that include
features to recover and store energy
during engine motoring operation but
not from the vehicle’s wheels.
(b) Rankine engines. Test engines that
include Rankine-cycle exhaust energy
recovery systems according to the test
procedures specified in subpart F of this
part unless we approve alternate
procedures.
(c) Calculating credits. Calculate
credits as specified in subpart H of this
part. Credits generated from engines and
powertrains certified under this section
may be used in other averaging sets as
described in § 1036.740(c).
(d) Off-cycle technologies. You may
certify using both the provisions of this
section and the off-cycle technology
provisions of § 1036.610, provided you
do not double-count emission benefits.
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§ 1036.620 Alternate CO2 standards based
on model year 2011 compression-ignition
engines.
For model years 2014 through 2016,
you may certify your compressionignition engines to the CO2 standards of
this section instead of the CO2 standards
in § 1036.108. However, you may not
certify engines to these alternate
standards if they are part of an averaging
set in which you carry a balance of
banked credits. You may submit
applications for certifications before
using up banked credits in the averaging
set, but such certificates will not
become effective until you have used up
(or retired) your banked credits in the
averaging set. For purposes of this
section, you are deemed to carry credits
in an averaging set if you carry credits
from advanced technology that are
allowed to be used in that averaging set.
(a) The standards of this section are
determined from the measured emission
rate of the test engine of the applicable
baseline 2011 engine family(ies) as
described in paragraphs (b) and (c) of
this section. Calculate the CO2 emission
rate of the baseline test engine using the
same equations used for showing
compliance with the otherwise
applicable standard. The alternate CO2
standard for light and medium heavyduty vocational-certified engines
(certified for CO2 using the transient
cycle) is equal to the baseline emission
rate multiplied by 0.975. The alternate
CO2 standard for tractor-certified
engines (certified for CO2 using the
ramped-modal cycle) and all other
heavy heavy-duty engines is equal to the
baseline emission rate multiplied by
0.970. The in-use FEL for these engines
is equal to the alternate standard
multiplied by 1.03.
(b) This paragraph (b) applies if you
do not certify all your engine families in
the averaging set to the alternate
standards of this section. Identify
separate baseline engine families for
each engine family that you are
certifying to the alternate standards of
this section. For an engine family to be
considered the baseline engine family, it
must meet the following criteria:
(1) It must have been certified to all
applicable emission standards in model
year 2011. If the baseline engine was
certified to a NOX FEL above the
standard and incorporated the same
emission control technologies as the
new engine family, you may adjust the
baseline CO2 emission rate to be
equivalent to an engine meeting the 0.20
g/hp-hr NOX standard (or your higher
FEL as specified in this paragraph
(b)(1)), using certification results from
model years 2009 through 2011,
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40597
consistent with good engineering
judgment.
(i) Use the following equation to relate
model year 2009–2011 NOX and CO2
emission rates (g/hp-hr): CO2 = a ×
log(NOX)+b.
(ii) For model year 2014–2016 engines
certified to NOX FELs above 0.20 g/hphr, correct the baseline CO2 emissions to
the actual NOX FELs of the 2014–2016
engines.
(iii) Calculate separate adjustments for
emissions over the ramped-modal cycle
and the transient cycle.
(2) The baseline configuration tested
for certification must have the same
engine displacement as the engines in
the engine family being certified to the
alternate standards, and its rated power
must be within five percent of the
highest rated power in the engine family
being certified to the alternate
standards.
(3) The model year 2011 U.S.-directed
production volume of the configuration
tested must be at least one percent of the
total 2011 U.S.-directed production
volume for the engine family.
(4) The tested configuration must
have cycle-weighted BSFC equivalent to
or better than all other configurations in
the engine family.
(c) This paragraph (c) applies if you
certify all your engine families in the
primary intended service class to the
alternate standards of this section. For
purposes of this section, you may
combine light heavy-duty and medium
heavy-duty engines into a single
averaging set. Determine your baseline
CO2 emission rate as the productionweighted emission rate of the certified
engine families you produced in the
2011 model year. If you produce engines
for both tractors and vocational
vehicles, treat them as separate
averaging sets. Adjust the CO2 emission
rates to be equivalent to an engine
meeting the average NOX FEL of new
engines (assuming engines certified to
the 0.20 g/hp-hr NOX standard have a
NOX FEL equal to 0.20 g/hp-hr), as
described in paragraph (b)(1) of this
section.
(d) Include the following statement on
the emission control information label:
‘‘THIS ENGINE WAS CERTIFIED TO
AN ALTERNATE CO2 STANDARD
UNDER § 1036.620.’’
(e) You may not bank CO2 emission
credits for any engine family in the
same averaging set and model year in
which you certify engines to the
standards of this section. You may not
bank any advanced technology credits
in any averaging set for the model year
you certify under this section (since
such credits would be available for use
in this averaging set). Note that the
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provisions of § 1036.745 apply for
deficits generated with respect to the
standards of this section.
(f) You need our approval before you
may certify engines under this section,
especially with respect to the numerical
value of the alternate standards. We will
not approve your request if we
determine that you manipulated your
engine families or test engine
configurations to certify to less stringent
standards, or that you otherwise have
not acted in good faith. You must keep
and provide to us any information we
need to determine that your engine
families meet the requirements of this
section. Keep these records for at least
five years after you stop producing
engines certified under this section.
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§ 1036.625 In-use compliance with family
emission limits (FELs).
Section 1036.225 describes how to
change the FEL for an engine family
during the model year. This section,
which describes how you may ask us to
increase an engine family’s FEL after the
end of the model year, is intended to
address circumstances in which it is in
the public interest to apply a higher inuse FEL based on forfeiting an
appropriate number of emission credits.
(a) You may ask us to increase an
engine family’s FEL after the end of the
model year if you believe some of your
in-use engines exceed the CO2 FEL that
applied during the model year (or the
CO2 emission standard if the family did
not generate or use emission credits).
We may consider any available
information in making our decision to
approve or deny your request.
(b) If we approve your request under
this section, you must apply emission
credits to cover the increased FEL for all
affected engines. Apply the emission
credits as part of your credit
demonstration for the current
production year. Include the
appropriate calculations in your final
report under § 1036.730.
(c) Submit your request to the
Designated Compliance Officer. Include
the following in your request:
(1) Identify the names of each engine
family that is the subject of your
request. Include separate family names
for different model years
(2) Describe why your request does
not apply for similar engine models or
additional model years, as applicable.
(3) Identify the FEL(s) that applied
during the model year and recommend
a replacement FEL for in-use engines;
include a supporting rationale to
describe how you determined the
recommended replacement FEL.
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(4) Describe whether the needed
emission credits will come from
averaging, banking, or trading.
(d) If we approve your request, we
will identify the replacement FEL. The
value we select will reflect our best
judgment to accurately reflect the actual
in-use performance of your engines,
consistent with the testing provisions
specified in this part. We may apply the
higher FELs to other engine families
from the same or different model years
to the extent they used equivalent
emission controls. We may include any
appropriate conditions with our
approval.
(e) If we order a recall for an engine
family under 40 CFR 1068.505, we will
no longer approve a replacement FEL
under this section for any of your
engines from that engine family, or from
any other engine family that relies on
equivalent emission controls.
§ 1036.630 Certification of engine GHG
emissions for powertrain testing.
For engines included in powertrain
families under 40 CFR part 1037, you
may choose to include the
corresponding engine emissions in your
engine families under this part 1036.
(a) If you choose to include engine
emissions in an engine family, the
declared powertrain emission levels
become standards that apply for
selective enforcement audits and in-use
testing. We may require that you
provide the engine test cycle (not
normalized) corresponding to a given
powertrain for each of the specified
duty cycles.
(b) If you choose to certify only fuel
map emissions for an engine family and
to not certify emissions over powertrain
test cycles under 40 CFR 1037.550, we
will not presume you are responsible for
emissions over the powertrain cycles.
However, where we determine that you
are responsible in whole or in part for
the emission exceedance in such cases,
we may require that you participate in
any recall of the affected vehicles. Note
that this provision does not apply if you
also hold the certificate of conformity
for the vehicle.
Subpart H—Averaging, Banking, and
Trading for Certification
§ 1036.701
General provisions.
(a) You may average, bank, and trade
(ABT) emission credits for purposes of
certification as described in this subpart
and in subpart B of this part to show
compliance with the standards of
§ 1036.108. Participation in this
program is voluntary. (Note: As
described in subpart B of this part, you
must assign an FCL to all engine
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families, whether or not they participate
in the ABT provisions of this subpart.)
(b) The definitions of subpart I of this
part apply to this subpart. The following
definitions also apply:
(1) Actual emission credits means
emission credits you have generated
that we have verified by reviewing your
final report.
(2) Averaging set means a set of
engines in which emission credits may
be exchanged. Credits generated by one
engine may only be used by other
engines in the same averaging set. See
§ 1036.740.
(3) Broker means any entity that
facilitates a trade of emission credits
between a buyer and seller.
(4) Buyer means the entity that
receives emission credits as a result of
a trade.
(5) Reserved emission credits means
emission credits you have generated
that we have not yet verified by
reviewing your final report.
(6) Seller means the entity that
provides emission credits during a
trade.
(7) Standard means the emission
standard that applies under subpart B of
this part for engines not participating in
the ABT program of this subpart.
(8) Trade means to exchange emission
credits, either as a buyer or seller.
(c) Emission credits may be
exchanged only within an averaging set
as specified in § 1036.740.
(d) You may not use emission credits
generated under this subpart to offset
any emissions that exceed an FCL or
standard. This applies for all testing,
including certification testing, in-use
testing, selective enforcement audits,
and other production-line testing.
However, if emissions from an engine
exceed an FCL or standard (for example,
during a selective enforcement audit),
you may use emission credits to
recertify the engine family with a higher
FCL that applies only to future
production.
(e) You may use either of the
following approaches to retire or forego
emission credits:
(1) You may retire emission credits
generated from any number of your
engines. This may be considered
donating emission credits to the
environment. Identify any such credits
in the reports described in § 1036.730.
Engines must comply with the
applicable FELs even if you donate or
sell the corresponding emission credits
under this paragraph (h). Those credits
may no longer be used by anyone to
demonstrate compliance with any EPA
emission standards.
(2) You may certify an engine family
using an FEL (FCL for CO2) below the
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emission standard as described in this
part and choose not to generate
emission credits for that family. If you
do this, you do not need to calculate
emission credits for those engine
families and you do not need to submit
or keep the associated records described
in this subpart for that family.
(f) Emission credits may be used in
the model year they are generated.
Surplus emission credits may be banked
for future model years. Surplus
emission credits may sometimes be used
for past model years, as described in
§ 1036.745.
(g) You may increase or decrease an
FCL during the model year by amending
your application for certification under
§ 1036.225. The new FCL may apply
only to engines you have not already
introduced into commerce.
(h) See § 1036.740 for special credit
provisions that apply for greenhouse gas
credits generated under 40 CFR
86.1819–14(k)(7) or § 1036.615 or 40
CFR 1037.615.
(i) Unless the regulations explicitly
allow it, you may not calculate credits
more than once for any emission
reduction. For example, if you generate
CO2 emission credits for a hybrid engine
under this part for a given vehicle, no
one may generate CO2 emission credits
for that same hybrid engine and vehicle
under 40 CFR part 1037. However,
credits could be generated for identical
vehicles using engines that did not
generate credits under this part.
(j) You may use emission credits
generated in one model year without
adjustment for certifying vehicles in a
later model year, even if emission
standards are different.
(k) Engine families you certify with a
nonconformance penalty under 40 CFR
part 86, subpart L, may not generate
emission credits.
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§ 1036.705 Generating and calculating
emission credits.
(a) The provisions of this section
apply separately for calculating
emission credits for each pollutant.
(b) For each participating family,
calculate positive or negative emission
credits relative to the otherwise
applicable emission standard based on
the engine family’s FCL for greenhouse
gases. If your engine family is certified
to both the vocational and tractor engine
standards, calculate credits separately
for the vocational engines and the
tractor engines (as specified in
paragraph (b)(3) of this section).
Calculate positive emission credits for a
family that has an FCL below the
standard. Calculate negative emission
credits for a family that has an FCL
above the standard. Sum your positive
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and negative credits for the model year
before rounding. Round the sum of
emission credits to the nearest
megagram (Mg), using consistent units
throughout the following equations:
(1) For vocational engines:
Emission credits (Mg) = (Std—FCL) ·
(CF) · (Volume) · (UL) · (10¥6)
Where:
Std = the emission standard, in g/hp-hr, that
applies under subpart B of this part for
engines not participating in the ABT
program of this subpart (the ‘‘otherwise
applicable standard’’).
FCL = the Family Certification Level for the
engine family, in g/hp-hr, measured over
the transient duty cycle, rounded to the
same number of decimal places as the
emission standard.
CF = a transient cycle conversion factor (hphr/mile), calculated by dividing the total
(integrated) horsepower-hour over the
duty cycle (average of vocational engine
configurations weighted by their
production volumes) by 6.3 miles for
spark-ignition engines and 6.5 miles for
compression-ignition engines. This
represents the average work performed
by vocational engines in the family over
the mileage represented by operation
over the duty cycle.
Volume = the number of vocational engines
eligible to participate in the averaging,
banking, and trading program within the
given engine family during the model
year, as described in paragraph (c) of this
section.
UL = the useful life for the given engine
family, in miles.
(2) For tractor engines:
Emission credits (Mg) = (Std—FCL) ·
(CF) · (Volume) · (UL) · (10¥6)
Where:
Std = the emission standard, in g/hp-hr, that
applies under subpart B of this part for
engines not participating in the ABT
program of this subpart (the ‘‘otherwise
applicable standard’’).
FCL = the Family Certification Level for the
engine family, in g/hp-hr, measured over
the ramped-modal cycle rounded to the
same number of decimal places as the
emission standard.
CF = a transient cycle conversion factor (hphr/mile), calculated by dividing the total
(integrated) horsepower-hour over the
duty cycle (average of tractor-engine
configurations weighted by their
production volumes) by 6.3 miles for
spark-ignition engines and 6.5 miles for
compression-ignition engines. This
represents the average work performed
by tractor engines in the family over the
mileage represented by operation over
the duty cycle. Note that this calculation
requires you to use the transient cycle
conversion factor even for engines
certified to standards based on the
ramped-modal cycle.
Volume = the number of tractor engines
eligible to participate in the averaging,
banking, and trading program within the
given engine family during the model
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year, as described in paragraph (c) of this
section.
UL = the useful life for the given engine
family, in miles.
(3) For engine families certified to
both the vocational and tractor engine
standards, we may allow you to use
statistical methods to estimate the total
production volumes where a small
fraction of the engines cannot be tracked
precisely.
(4) You may not generate emission
credits for tractor engines (i.e., engines
not certified to the transient cycle for
CO2) installed in vocational vehicles
(including vocational tractors certified
pursuant to 40 CFR 1037.630 or
exempted pursuant to 40 CFR
1037.631). We will waive this
requirement where you demonstrate
that less than five percent of the engines
in your tractor family were installed in
vocational vehicles. For example, if you
know that 96 percent of your tractor
engines were installed in non-vocational
tractors, but cannot determine the
vehicle type for the remaining four
percent, you may generate credits for all
the engines in the family.
(c) As described in § 1036.730,
compliance with the requirements of
this subpart is determined at the end of
the model year based on actual U.S.directed production volumes. Keep
appropriate records to document these
production volumes. Do not include any
of the following engines to calculate
emission credits:
(1) Engines that you do not certify to
the CO2 standards of this part because
they are permanently exempted under
subpart G of this part or under 40 CFR
part 1068.
(2) Exported engines.
(3) Engines not subject to the
requirements of this part, such as those
excluded under § 1036.5. For example,
do not include engines used in vehicles
certified to the greenhouse gas standards
of 40 CFR 86.1819.
(4) Any other engines if we indicate
elsewhere in this part 1036 that they are
not to be included in the calculations of
this subpart.
(d) You may use CO2 emission credits
to show compliance with CH4 and/or
N2O FELs instead of the otherwise
applicable emission standards. To do
this, calculate the CH4 and/or N2O
emission credits needed (negative
credits) using the equation in paragraph
(b) of this section, using the FEL(s) you
specify for your engines during
certification instead of the FCL. You
must use 25 Mg of positive CO2 credits
to offset 1 Mg of negative CH4 credits.
You must use 298 Mg of positive CO2
credits to offset 1 Mg of negative N2O
credits.
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Averaging.
(a) Averaging is the exchange of
emission credits among your engine
families. You may average emission
credits only within the same averaging
set.
(b) You may certify one or more
engine families to an FCL above the
applicable standard, subject to any
applicable FEL caps and other the
provisions in subpart B of this part, if
you show in your application for
certification that your projected balance
of all emission-credit transactions in
that model year is greater than or equal
to zero, or that a negative balance is
allowed under § 1036.745.
(c) If you certify an engine family to
an FCL that exceeds the otherwise
applicable standard, you must obtain
enough emission credits to offset the
engine family’s deficit by the due date
for the final report required in
§ 1036.730. The emission credits used to
address the deficit may come from your
other engine families that generate
emission credits in the same model year
(or from later model years as specified
in § 1036.745), from emission credits
you have banked, or from emission
credits you obtain through trading.
§ 1036.715
Banking.
(a) Banking is the retention of surplus
emission credits by the manufacturer
generating the emission credits for use
in future model years for averaging or
trading.
(b) You may designate any emission
credits you plan to bank in the reports
you submit under § 1036.730 as
reserved credits. During the model year
and before the due date for the final
report, you may designate your reserved
emission credits for averaging or
trading.
(c) Reserved credits become actual
emission credits when you submit your
final report. However, we may revoke
these emission credits if we are unable
to verify them after reviewing your
reports or auditing your records.
(d) Banked credits retain the
designation of the averaging set in
which they were generated.
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§ 1036.720
Trading.
(a) Trading is the exchange of
emission credits between
manufacturers. You may use traded
emission credits for averaging, banking,
or further trading transactions. Traded
emission credits remain subject to the
averaging-set restrictions based on the
averaging set in which they were
generated.
(b) You may trade actual emission
credits as described in this subpart. You
may also trade reserved emission
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credits, but we may revoke these
emission credits based on our review of
your records or reports or those of the
company with which you traded
emission credits. You may trade banked
credits within an averaging set to any
certifying manufacturer.
(c) If a negative emission credit
balance results from a transaction, both
the buyer and seller are liable, except in
cases we deem to involve fraud. See
§ 1036.255(e) for cases involving fraud.
We may void the certificates of all
engine families participating in a trade
that results in a manufacturer having a
negative balance of emission credits.
See § 1036.745.
§ 1036.725 What must I include in my
application for certification?
(a) You must declare in your
application for certification your intent
to use the provisions of this subpart for
each engine family that will be certified
using the ABT program. You must also
declare the FELs/FCL you select for the
engine family for each pollutant for
which you are using the ABT program.
Your FELs must comply with the
specifications of subpart B of this part,
including the FEL caps. FELs/FCLs
must be expressed to the same number
of decimal places as the applicable
standards.
(b) Include the following in your
application for certification:
(1) A statement that, to the best of
your belief, you will not have a negative
balance of emission credits for any
averaging set when all emission credits
are calculated at the end of the year; or
a statement that you will have a
negative balance of emission credits for
one or more averaging sets, but that it
is allowed under § 1036.745.
(2) Detailed calculations of projected
emission credits (positive or negative)
based on projected U.S.-directed
production volumes. We may require
you to include similar calculations from
your other engine families to project
your net credit balances for the model
year. If you project negative emission
credits for a family, state the source of
positive emission credits you expect to
use to offset the negative emission
credits.
§ 1036.730
ABT reports.
(a) If any of your engine families are
certified using the ABT provisions of
this subpart, you must send a final
report by March 31 following the end of
the model year. You may ask us to
extend the deadline for the final report
to April 30.
(b) Your final report must include the
following information for each engine
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family participating in the ABT
program:
(1) Engine-family designation and
averaging set.
(2) The emission standards that would
otherwise apply to the engine family.
(3) The FCL for each pollutant. If you
change the FCL after the start of
production, identify the date that you
started using the new FCL and/or give
the engine identification number for the
first engine covered by the new FCL. In
this case, identify each applicable FCL
and calculate the positive or negative
emission credits as specified in
§ 1036.225.
(4) The projected and actual U.S.directed production volumes for the
model year. If you changed an FCL
during the model year, identify the
actual production volume associated
with each FCL.
(5) The transient cycle conversion
factor for each engine configuration as
described in § 1036.705.
(6) Useful life.
(7) Calculated positive or negative
emission credits for the whole engine
family. Identify any emission credits
that you traded, as described in
paragraph (d)(1) of this section.
(c) Your final report must include the
following additional information:
(1) Show that your net balance of
emission credits from all your
participating engine families in each
averaging set in the applicable model
year is not negative, except as allowed
under § 1036.745. Your credit tracking
must account for the limitation on credit
life under § 1036.740(d).
(2) State whether you will reserve any
emission credits for banking.
(3) State that the report’s contents are
accurate.
(d) If you trade emission credits, you
must send us a report within 90 days
after the transaction, as follows:
(1) As the seller, you must include the
following information in your report:
(i) The corporate names of the buyer
and any brokers.
(ii) A copy of any contracts related to
the trade.
(iii) The engine families that
generated emission credits for the trade,
including the number of emission
credits from each family.
(2) As the buyer, you must include the
following information in your report:
(i) The corporate names of the seller
and any brokers.
(ii) A copy of any contracts related to
the trade.
(iii) How you intend to use the
emission credits, including the number
of emission credits you intend to apply
to each engine family (if known).
(e) Send your reports electronically to
the Designated Compliance Officer
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using an approved information format.
If you want to use a different format,
send us a written request with
justification for a waiver.
(f) Correct errors in your final report
as follows:
(1) If you or we determine before the
due date for the final report that errors
mistakenly decreased your balance of
emission credits, you may correct the
errors and recalculate the balance of
emission credits. You may not make
these corrections for errors that are
determined after the due date for the
final report. If you report a negative
balance of emission credits, we may
disallow corrections under this
paragraph (f)(1).
(2) If you or we determine anytime
that errors mistakenly increased your
balance of emission credits, you must
correct the errors and recalculate the
balance of emission credits.
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§ 1036.735
Recordkeeping.
(a) You must organize and maintain
your records as described in this
section. We may review your records at
any time.
(b) Keep the records required by this
section for at least eight years after the
due date for the final report. You may
not use emission credits for any engines
if you do not keep all the records
required under this section. You must
therefore keep these records to continue
to bank valid credits. Store these records
in any format and on any media, as long
as you can promptly send us organized,
written records in English if we ask for
them. You must keep these records
readily available. We may review them
at any time.
(c) Keep a copy of the reports we
require in §§ 1036.725 and 1036.730.
(d) Keep records of the engine
identification number (usually the serial
number) for each engine you produce
that generates or uses emission credits
under the ABT program. You may
identify these numbers as a range. If you
change the FEL after the start of
production, identify the date you started
using each FCL and the range of engine
identification numbers associated with
each FCL. You must also identify the
purchaser and destination for each
engine you produce to the extent this
information is available.
(e) We may require you to keep
additional records or to send us relevant
information not required by this section
in accordance with the Clean Air Act.
§ 1036.740
credits.
Restrictions for using emission
The following restrictions apply for
using emission credits:
(a) Averaging sets. Except as specified
in paragraph (c) of this section, emission
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credits may be exchanged only within
the following averaging sets:
(1) Spark-ignition engines.
(2) Compression-ignition light heavyduty engines.
(3) Compression-ignition medium
heavy-duty engines.
(4) Compression-ignition heavy
heavy-duty engines.
(b) Applying credits to prior year
deficits. Where your credit balance for
the previous year is negative, you may
apply credits to that credit deficit only
after meeting your credit obligations for
the current year.
(c) Credits from hybrid engines and
other advanced technologies. Credits
you generate under § 1036.615 may be
used for any of the averaging sets
identified in paragraph (a) of this
section; you may also use those credits
to demonstrate compliance with the CO2
emission standards in 40 CFR 86.1819
and 40 CFR part 1037. Similarly, you
may use advanced-technology credits
generated under 40 CFR 86.1819–
14(k)(7) or 40 CFR 1037.615 to
demonstrate compliance with the CO2
standards in this part. In the case of
spark-ignition engines and compressionignition light heavy-duty engines, you
may not use more than 60,000 Mg of
credits from other averaging sets in any
model year.
(1) The maximum amount of CO2
credits you may bring into the following
service class groups is 60,000 Mg per
model year:
(i) Spark-ignition engines, light heavyduty compression-ignition engines, and
light heavy-duty vehicles. This group
comprises the averaging sets listed in
paragraphs (a)(1) and (2) of this section
and the averaging set listed in 40 CFR
1037.740(a)(1).
(ii) Medium heavy-duty compressionignition engines and medium heavyduty vehicles. This group comprises the
averaging sets listed in paragraph (a)(3)
of this section and 40 CFR
1037.740(a)(2).
(iii) Heavy heavy-duty compressionignition engines and heavy heavy-duty
vehicles. This group comprises the
averaging sets listed in paragraph (a)(4)
of this section and 40 CFR
1037.740(a)(3).
(2) The limit specified in paragraph
(c)(1) of this section does not limit the
amount of advanced technology credits
that can be used within a service class
group if they were generated in that
same service class group.
(d) Credit life. Credits may be used
only for five model years after the year
in which they are generated. For
example, credits you generate in model
year 2018 may be used to demonstrate
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compliance with emission standards
only through model year 2023.
(e) Other restrictions. Other sections
of this part specify additional
restrictions for using emission credits
under certain special provisions.
§ 1036.745
End-of-year CO2 credit deficits.
Except as allowed by this section, we
may void the certificate of any engine
family certified to an FCL above the
applicable standard for which you do
not have sufficient credits by the
deadline for submitting the final report.
(a) Your certificate for an engine
family for which you do not have
sufficient CO2 credits will not be void
if you remedy the deficit with surplus
credits within three model years. For
example, if you have a credit deficit of
500 Mg for an engine family at the end
of model year 2015, you must generate
(or otherwise obtain) a surplus of at
least 500 Mg in that same averaging set
by the end of model year 2018.
(b) You may not bank or trade away
CO2 credits in the averaging set in any
model year in which you have a deficit.
(c) You may apply only surplus
credits to your deficit. You may not
apply credits to a deficit from an earlier
model year if they were generated in a
model year for which any of your engine
families for that averaging set had an
end-of-year credit deficit.
(d) If you do not remedy the deficit
with surplus credits within three model
years, we may void your certificate for
that engine family. Note that voiding a
certificate applies ab initio. Where the
net deficit is less than the total amount
of negative credits originally generated
by the family, we will void the
certificate only with respect to the
number of engines needed to reach the
amount of the net deficit. For example,
if the original engine family generated
500 Mg of negative credits, and the
manufacturer’s net deficit after three
years was 250 Mg, we would void the
certificate with respect to half of the
engines in the family.
(e) For purposes of calculating the
statute of limitations, the following
actions are all considered to occur at the
expiration of the deadline for offsetting
a deficit as specified in paragraph (a) of
this section:
(1) Failing to meet the requirements of
paragraph (a) of this section.
(2) Failing to satisfy the conditions
upon which a certificate was issued
relative to offsetting a deficit.
(3) Selling, offering for sale,
introducing or delivering into U.S.
commerce, or importing vehicles that
are found not to be covered by a
certificate as a result of failing to offset
a deficit.
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§ 1036.750 What can happen if I do not
comply with the provisions of this subpart?
(a) For each engine family
participating in the ABT program, the
certificate of conformity is conditioned
upon full compliance with the
provisions of this subpart during and
after the model year. You are
responsible to establish to our
satisfaction that you fully comply with
applicable requirements. We may void
the certificate of conformity for an
engine family if you fail to comply with
any provisions of this subpart.
(b) You may certify your engine
family to an FCL above an applicable
standard based on a projection that you
will have enough emission credits to
offset the deficit for the engine family.
See § 1036.745 for provisions specifying
what happens if you cannot show in
your final report that you have enough
actual emission credits to offset a deficit
for any pollutant in an engine family.
(c) We may void the certificate of
conformity for an engine family if you
fail to keep records, send reports, or give
us information we request. Note that
failing to keep records, send reports, or
give us information we request is also a
violation of 42 U.S.C. 7522(a)(2).
(d) You may ask for a hearing if we
void your certificate under this section
(see § 1036.820).
§ 1036.755 Information provided to the
Department of Transportation.
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After receipt of each manufacturer’s
final report as specified in § 1036.730
and completion of any verification
testing required to validate the
manufacturer’s submitted final data, we
will issue a report to the Department of
Transportation with CO2 emission
information and will verify the accuracy
of each manufacturer’s equivalent fuel
consumption data that required by
NHTSA under 49 CFR 535.8. We will
send a report to DOT for each engine
manufacturer based on each regulatory
category and subcategory, including
sufficient information for NHTSA to
determine fuel consumption and
associated credit values. See 49 CFR
535.8 to determine if NHTSA deems
submission of this information to EPA
to also be a submission to NHTSA.
Subpart I—Definitions and Other
Reference Information
§ 1036.801
Definitions.
The following definitions apply to
this part. The definitions apply to all
subparts unless we note otherwise. All
undefined terms have the meaning the
Act gives to them. The definitions
follow:
Act means the Clean Air Act, as
amended, 42 U.S.C. 7401–7671q.
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Adjustable parameter has the
meaning given in 40 CFR part 86.
Advanced technology means
technology certified under 40 CFR
86.1819–14(k)(7), § 1036.615, or 40 CFR
1037.615.
Aftertreatment means relating to a
catalytic converter, particulate filter, or
any other system, component, or
technology mounted downstream of the
exhaust valve (or exhaust port) whose
design function is to decrease emissions
in the engine exhaust before it is
exhausted to the environment. Exhaustgas recirculation (EGR) and
turbochargers are not aftertreatment.
Aircraft means any vehicle capable of
sustained air travel more than 100 feet
above the ground.
Alcohol-fueled engine mean an engine
that is designed to run using an alcohol
fuel. For purposes of this definition,
alcohol fuels do not include fuels with
a nominal alcohol content below 25
percent by volume.
Auxiliary emission control device
means any element of design that senses
temperature, motive speed, engine rpm,
transmission gear, or any other
parameter for the purpose of activating,
modulating, delaying, or deactivating
the operation of any part of the emission
control system.
Averaging set has the meaning given
in § 1036.740.
Calibration means the set of
specifications and tolerances specific to
a particular design, version, or
application of a component or assembly
capable of functionally describing its
operation over its working range.
Carryover means relating to
certification based on emission data
generated from an earlier model year as
described in § 1036.235(d).
Certification means relating to the
process of obtaining a certificate of
conformity for an engine family that
complies with the emission standards
and requirements in this part.
Certified emission level means the
highest deteriorated emission level in an
engine family for a given pollutant from
the applicable transient and/or steadystate testing, rounded to the same
number of decimal places as the
applicable standard. Note that you may
have two certified emission levels for
CO2 if you certify a family for both
vocational and tractor use.
Complete vehicle means a vehicle
meeting the definition of complete
vehicle in 40 CFR 1037.801 when it is
first sold as a vehicle. For example,
where a vehicle manufacturer sells an
incomplete vehicle to a secondary
manufacturer, the vehicle is not a
complete vehicle under this part, even
after its final assembly.
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Compression-ignition means relating
to a type of reciprocating, internalcombustion engine that is not a sparkignition engine. Note that § 1036.1 also
deems gas turbine engines and other
engines to be compression-ignition
engines. Note also that certain sparkignition engines are subject to the
requirements for compression-ignition
engines.
Crankcase emissions means airborne
substances emitted to the atmosphere
from any part of the engine crankcase’s
ventilation or lubrication systems. The
crankcase is the housing for the
crankshaft and other related internal
parts.
Criteria pollutants means emissions of
NOX, HC, PM, and CO. Note that these
pollutants are also sometimes described
collectively as ‘‘non-greenhouse gas
pollutants’’, although they do not
necessarily have negligible global
warming potentials.
Designated Compliance Officer means
one of the following:
(1) For compression-ignition engines,
Designated Compliance Officer means
Director, Diesel Engine Compliance
Center, U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency, 2000 Traverwood Drive, Ann
Arbor, MI 48105; complianceinfo@
epa.gov; epa.gov/otaq/verify/
(2) For spark-ignition engines,
Designated Compliance Officer means
Director, Gasoline Engine Compliance
Center, U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency, 2000 Traverwood Drive, Ann
Arbor, MI 48105; nonroad-si-cert@
epa.gov; epa.gov/otaq/verify.
Deteriorated emission level means the
emission level that results from
applying the appropriate deterioration
factor to the official emission result of
the emission-data engine. Note that
where no deterioration factor applies,
references in this part to the
deteriorated emission level mean the
official emission result.
Deterioration factor means the
relationship between emissions at the
end of useful life (or point of highest
emissions if it occurs before the end of
useful life) and emissions at the lowhour/low-mileage test point, expressed
in one of the following ways:
(1) For multiplicative deterioration
factors, the ratio of emissions at the end
of useful life (or point of highest
emissions) to emissions at the low-hour
test point.
(2) For additive deterioration factors,
the difference between emissions at the
end of useful life (or point of highest
emissions) and emissions at the lowhour test point.
Dual-fuel means relating to an engine
designed for operation on two different
types of fuel but not on a continuous
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mixture of those fuels (see
§ 1036.601(d). For purposes of this part,
such an engine remains a dual-fuel
engine even if it is designed for
operation on three or more different
fuels.
Emission control system means any
device, system, or element of design that
controls or reduces the emissions of
regulated pollutants from an engine.
Emission-data engine means an
engine that is tested for certification.
This includes engines tested to establish
deterioration factors.
Emission-related maintenance means
maintenance that substantially affects
emissions or is likely to substantially
affect emission deterioration.
Engine configuration means a unique
combination of engine hardware and
calibration (related to the emission
standards) within an engine family.
Engines within a single engine
configuration differ only with respect to
normal production variability or factors
unrelated to compliance with emission
standards.
Engine family has the meaning given
in § 1036.230.
Excluded means relating to engines
that are not subject to some or all of the
requirements of this part as follows:
(1) An engine that has been
determined not to be a heavy-duty
engine is excluded from this part.
(2) Certain heavy-duty engines are
excluded from the requirements of this
part under § 1036.5.
(3) Specific regulatory provisions of
this part may exclude a heavy-duty
engine generally subject to this part
from one or more specific standards or
requirements of this part.
Exempted has the meaning given in
40 CFR 1068.30.
Exhaust-gas recirculation means a
technology that reduces emissions by
routing exhaust gases that had been
exhausted from the combustion
chamber(s) back into the engine to be
mixed with incoming air before or
during combustion. The use of valve
timing to increase the amount of
residual exhaust gas in the combustion
chamber(s) that is mixed with incoming
air before or during combustion is not
considered exhaust-gas recirculation for
the purposes of this part.
Family certification level (FCL) means
a CO2 emission level declared by the
manufacturer that is at or above
emission test results for all emissiondata engines. The FCL serves as the
emission standard for the engine family
with respect to certification testing if it
is different than the otherwise
applicable standard. The FCL must be
expressed to the same number of
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decimal places as the emission standard
it replaces.
Family emission limit (FEL) means an
emission level declared by the
manufacturer to serve in place of an
otherwise applicable emission standard
(other than CO2 standards) under the
ABT program in subpart H of this part.
The FEL must be expressed to the same
number of decimal places as the
emission standard it replaces. The FEL
serves as the emission standard for the
engine family with respect to all
required testing except certification
testing for CO2. The CO2 FEL is equal to
the CO2 FCL multiplied by 1.03 and
rounded to the same number of decimal
places as the standard (e.g., the nearest
whole g/hp-hr for the 2016 CO2
standards).
Flexible-fuel means relating to an
engine designed for operation on any
mixture of two or more different types
of fuels (see § 1036.601(d).
Fuel type means a general category of
fuels such as diesel fuel, gasoline, or
natural gas. There can be multiple
grades within a single fuel type, such as
premium gasoline, regular gasoline, or
gasoline with 10 percent ethanol.
Good engineering judgment has the
meaning given in 40 CFR 1068.30. See
40 CFR 1068.5 for the administrative
process we use to evaluate good
engineering judgment.
Greenhouse gas means one or more
compounds regulated under this part
based primarily on their impact on the
climate. This generally includes CO2,
CH4, and N2O.
Greenhouse gas emissions model
(GEM) means the GEM simulation tool
described in 40 CFR 1037.520. Note that
an updated version of GEM applies
starting in model year 2021 (see 40 CFR
1037.810).
Gross vehicle weight rating (GVWR)
means the value specified by the vehicle
manufacturer as the maximum design
loaded weight of a single vehicle,
consistent with good engineering
judgment.
Heavy-duty engine means any engine
which the engine manufacturer could
reasonably expect to be used for motive
power in a heavy-duty vehicle. For
purposes of this definition in this part,
the term ‘‘engine’’ includes internal
combustion engines and other devices
that convert chemical fuel into motive
power. For example, a fuel cell or a gas
turbine used in a heavy-duty vehicle is
a heavy-duty engine.
Heavy-duty vehicle means any motor
vehicle above 8,500 pounds GVWR or
that has a vehicle curb weight above
6,000 pounds or that has a basic vehicle
frontal area greater than 45 square feet.
Curb weight has the meaning given in 40
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40603
CFR 86.1803. Basic vehicle frontal area
has the meaning given in 40 CFR
86.1803.
Hybrid means relating to an engine or
powertrain that includes energy storage
features other than a conventional
battery system or conventional flywheel.
Supplemental electrical batteries and
hydraulic accumulators are examples of
hybrid energy storage systems. Note that
certain provisions in this part treat
hybrid engines and powertrains
intended for vehicles that include
regenerative braking different than those
intended for vehicles that do not
include regenerative braking.
Hydrocarbon (HC) means the
hydrocarbon group on which the
emission standards are based for each
fuel type. For alcohol-fueled engines,
HC means nonmethane hydrocarbon
equivalent (NMHCE). For all other
engines, HC means nonmethane
hydrocarbon (NMHC).
Identification number means a unique
specification (for example, a model
number/serial number combination)
that allows someone to distinguish a
particular engine from other similar
engines.
Incomplete vehicle means a vehicle
meeting the definition of incomplete
vehicle in 40 CFR 1037.801 when it is
first sold as a vehicle.
Innovative technology means
technology certified under § 1036.610.
Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) means
a liquid hydrocarbon fuel that is stored
under pressure and is composed
primarily of nonmethane compounds
that are gases at atmospheric conditions.
Note that, although this commercial
term includes the word ‘‘petroleum’’,
LPG is not considered to be a petroleum
fuel under the definitions of this
section.
Low-hour means relating to an engine
that has stabilized emissions and
represents the undeteriorated emission
level. This would generally involve less
than 125 hours of operation.
Manufacture means the physical and
engineering process of designing,
constructing, and/or assembling a
heavy-duty engine or a heavy-duty
vehicle.
Manufacturer has the meaning given
in section 216(1) of the Act. In general,
this term includes any person who
manufactures or assembles an engine,
vehicle, or piece of equipment for sale
in the United States or otherwise
introduces a new engine into commerce
in the United States. This includes
importers who import engines or
vehicles for resale.
Medium-duty passenger vehicle has
the meaning given in 40 CFR 86.1803.
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Model year means the manufacturer’s
annual new model production period,
except as restricted under this
definition. It must include January 1 of
the calendar year for which the model
year is named, may not begin before
January 2 of the previous calendar year,
and it must end by December 31 of the
named calendar year. Manufacturers
may not adjust model years to
circumvent or delay compliance with
emission standards or to avoid the
obligation to certify annually.
Motor vehicle has the meaning given
in 40 CFR 85.1703.
Natural gas means a fuel whose
primary constituent is methane.
New motor vehicle engine has the
meaning given in the Act. This generally
means a motor vehicle engine meeting
the criteria of either paragraph (1), (2),
or (3) of this definition.
(1) A motor vehicle engine for which
the ultimate purchaser has never
received the equitable or legal title is a
new motor vehicle engine. This kind of
engine might commonly be thought of
as ‘‘brand new’’ although a new motor
vehicle engine may include previously
used parts. Under this definition, the
engine is new from the time it is
produced until the ultimate purchaser
receives the title or places it into
service, whichever comes first.
(2) An imported motor vehicle engine
is a new motor vehicle engine if it was
originally built on or after January 1,
1970.
(3) Any motor vehicle engine installed
in a new motor vehicle.
Noncompliant engine means an
engine that was originally covered by a
certificate of conformity, but is not in
the certified configuration or otherwise
does not comply with the conditions of
the certificate.
Nonconforming engine means an
engine not covered by a certificate of
conformity that would otherwise be
subject to emission standards.
Nonmethane hydrocarbon (NMHC)
means the sum of all hydrocarbon
species except methane, as measured
according to 40 CFR part 1065.
Nonmethane hydrocarbon equivalent
has the meaning given in 40 CFR
1065.1001.
Off-cycle technology means
technology certified under § 1036.610.
Official emission result means the
measured emission rate for an emissiondata engine on a given duty cycle before
the application of any deterioration
factor, but after the applicability of any
required regeneration or other
adjustment factors.
Owners manual means a document or
collection of documents prepared by the
engine or vehicle manufacturer for the
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owner or operator to describe
appropriate engine maintenance,
applicable warranties, and any other
information related to operating or
keeping the engine. The owners manual
is typically provided to the ultimate
purchaser at the time of sale.
Oxides of nitrogen has the meaning
given in 40 CFR 1065.1001.
Percent has the meaning given in 40
CFR 1065.1001. Note that this means
percentages identified in this part are
assumed to be infinitely precise without
regard to the number of significant
figures. For example, one percent of
1,493 is 14.93.
Petroleum means gasoline or diesel
fuel or other fuels normally derived
from crude oil. This does not include
methane or LPG.
Placed into service means put into
initial use for its intended purpose,
excluding incidental use by the
manufacturer or a dealer.
Preliminary approval means approval
granted by an authorized EPA
representative prior to submission of an
application for certification, consistent
with the provisions of § 1036.210.
Primary intended service class has the
meaning given in § 1036.140.
Rechargeable Energy Storage System
(RESS) means the component(s) of a
hybrid engine or vehicle that store
recovered energy for later use, such as
the battery system in an electric hybrid
vehicle.
Revoke has the meaning given in 40
CFR 1068.30.
Round has the meaning given in 40
CFR 1065.1001.
Scheduled maintenance means
adjusting, repairing, removing,
disassembling, cleaning, or replacing
components or systems periodically to
keep a part or system from failing,
malfunctioning, or wearing prematurely.
It also may mean actions you expect are
necessary to correct an overt indication
of failure or malfunction for which
periodic maintenance is not
appropriate.
Small manufacturer means a
manufacturer meeting the criteria
specified in 13 CFR 121.201. The
employee and revenue limits apply to
the total number of employees and total
revenue together for affiliated
companies. Note that manufacturers
with low production volumes may or
may not be ‘‘small manufacturers’’.
Spark-ignition means relating to a
gasoline-fueled engine or any other type
of engine with a spark plug (or other
sparking device) and with operating
characteristics significantly similar to
the theoretical Otto combustion cycle.
Spark-ignition engines usually use a
throttle to regulate intake air flow to
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control power during normal operation.
Note that some spark-ignition engines
are subject to requirements that apply
for compression-ignition engines as
described in § 1036.140.
Steady-state has the meaning given in
40 CFR 1065.1001.
Suspend has the meaning given in 40
CFR 1068.30.
Test engine means an engine in a test
sample.
Test sample means the collection of
engines selected from the population of
an engine family for emission testing.
This may include testing for
certification, production-line testing, or
in-use testing.
Tractor means a vehicle meeting the
definition of ‘‘tractor’’ in 40 CFR
1037.801, but not classified as a
‘‘vocational tractor’’ under 40 CFR
1037.630, or relating to such a vehicle.
Tractor engine means an engine
certified for use in tractors. Where an
engine family is certified for use in both
tractors and vocational vehicles, ‘‘tractor
engine’’ means an engine that the engine
manufacturer reasonably believes will
be (or has been) installed in a tractor.
Note that the provisions of this part may
require a manufacturer to document
how it determines that an engine is a
tractor engine.
Ultimate purchaser means, with
respect to any new engine or vehicle,
the first person who in good faith
purchases such new engine or vehicle
for purposes other than resale.
United States has the meaning given
in 40 CFR 1068.30.
Upcoming model year means for an
engine family the model year after the
one currently in production.
U.S.-directed production volume
means the number of engines, subject to
the requirements of this part, produced
by a manufacturer for which the
manufacturer has a reasonable
assurance that sale was or will be made
to ultimate purchasers in the United
States. This does not include engines
certified to state emission standards that
are different than the emission
standards in this part.
Vehicle has the meaning given in 40
CFR 1037.801.
Vocational engine means an engine
certified for use in vocational vehicles.
Where an engine family is certified for
use in both tractors and vocational
vehicles, ‘‘vocational engine’’ means an
engine that the engine manufacturer
reasonably believes will be (or has been)
installed in a vocational vehicle. Note
that the provisions of this part may
require a manufacturer to document
how it determines that an engine is a
vocational engine.
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Vocational vehicle means a vehicle
meeting the definition of ‘‘vocational’’
vehicle in 40 CFR 1037.801.
Void has the meaning given in 40 CFR
1068.30.
We (us, our) means the Administrator
of the Environmental Protection Agency
and any authorized representatives.
See 40 CFR 1065.20 for specific
provisions related to these conventions.
This section summarizes the way we
use symbols, units of measure, and
other abbreviations.
(a) Symbols for chemical species. This
part uses the following symbols for
chemical species and exhaust
constituents:
§ 1036.805 Symbols, abbreviations, and
acronyms.
The procedures in this part generally
follow either the International System of
Units (SI) or the United States
customary units, as detailed in NIST
Special Publication 811, which we
incorporate by reference in § 1036.810.
Symbol
Species
C ...................
CH4 ...............
CH4N2O ........
CO ................
CO2 ..............
H2O ..............
carbon.
methane.
urea.
carbon monoxide.
carbon dioxide.
water.
Symbol
Species
HC ................
NMHC ..........
NMHCE ........
hydrocarbon.
nonmethane hydrocarbon.
nonmethane hydrocarbon
equivalent.
nitric oxide.
nitrogen dioxide.
oxides of nitrogen.
nitrous oxide.
particulate matter.
total hydrocarbon.
total hydrocarbon equivalent.
NO ................
NO2 ..............
NOX ..............
N2O ..............
PM ................
THC ..............
THCE ...........
(b) Symbols for quantities. This part
uses the following symbols and units of
measure for various quantities:
Unit in terms of
SI base units
Symbol
Quantity
Unit
Unit symbol
α ........
β ........
e ........
Em ......
fn ........
m .......
M .......
MF .....
P ........
T ........
W .......
wC ......
x .........
xb .......
xbl ......
atomic hydrogen-to-carbon ratio .............
atomic oxygen-to-carbon ratio ................
mass weighted emission result ..............
mass-specific net energy content ...........
angular speed (shaft) ..............................
mass .......................................................
molar mass .............................................
mass fraction ..........................................
power ......................................................
torque (moment of force) ........................
work ........................................................
carbon mass fraction ..............................
amount of substance mole fraction ........
brake energy fraction ..............................
brake energy limit ...................................
mole per mole ...................
mole per mole ...................
grams/ton-mile ..................
megajoules/kilogram .........
revolutions per minute ......
pound mass or kilogram ...
gram per mole ...................
mol/mol ..............................
mol/mol ..............................
g/ton-mi .............................
MJ/kg .................................
r/min ..................................
lbm or kg ...........................
g/mol .................................
1
1
g/kg-km
m2·s¥2
π·30·s¥1
kg
10¥3·kg·mol¥1
kilowatt ..............................
newton meter ....................
kilowatt-hour ......................
gram/gram .........................
mole per mole ...................
...........................................
kW .....................................
N·m ....................................
kW·hr .................................
g/g .....................................
mol/mol ..............................
...........................................
103·m2·kg·s¥3
m2·kg·s¥2
3.6·m2·kg·s¥1
1
1
(c) Superscripts. This part uses the
following superscripts to define a
quantity:
Superscript
¯
overbar (such as y ) .....
˙
overdot (such as y ) .....
Subscript
Quantity
arithmetic mean.
quantity per unit
time.
mapped .....................
pos ............................
ref ..............................
stall ............................
test ............................
ABT ..............
acc .............................
Ccombdry ..................
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CO2urea ....................
cor .............................
cycle ..........................
exh ............................
fuel ............................
H2Oexhaustdry .........
idle .............................
max ...........................
mapped .....................
meas .........................
neg ............................
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AECD ...........
Quantity
accessory.
carbon from fuel per
mole of dry exhaust.
CO2 from urea decomposition.
corrected.
test cycle.
raw exhaust.
fuel.
H2O in exhaust per
mole of exhaust.
idle.
maximum.
mapped.
measured quantity.
negative.
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mapped.
positive.
reference quantity.
stall.
test.
(e) Other acronyms and abbreviations.
This part uses the following additional
abbreviations and acronyms:
(d) Subscripts. This part uses the
following subscripts to define a
quantity:
Subscript
Quantity
ASTM ...........
BTU ..............
CFR ..............
DF ................
DOT ..............
E85 ...............
EPA ..............
FCL ..............
FEL ...............
GEM .............
g/hp-hr ..........
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averaging, banking, and trading.
auxiliary emission control device.
American Society for Testing
and Materials.
British thermal units.
Code of Federal Regulations.
deterioration factor.
Department of Transportation.
gasoline blend including
nominally 85 percent denatured ethanol.
Environmental Protection
Agency.
Family Certification Level.
Family Emission Limit.
Greenhouse gas Emissions
Model.
grams per brake horsepowerhour.
Fmt 4701
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GVWR ..........
LPG ..............
NARA ...........
NHTSA .........
NTE ..............
RESS ...........
RMC .............
rpm ...............
SCR ..............
U.S ...............
U.S.C ............
gross vehicle weight rating.
liquefied petroleum gas.
National Archives and
Records Administration.
National Highway Traffic
Safety Administration.
not-to-exceed.
rechargeable energy storage
system.
ramped-modal cycle.
revolutions per minute.
Selective catalytic reduction.
United States.
United States Code.
(f) Prefixes. This part uses the
following prefixes to define a quantity:
Symbol
Quantity
μ .......................
m .......................
c ........................
k ........................
M .......................
micro ................
milli ...................
centi ..................
kilo ....................
mega ................
§ 1036.810
Value
10 6
10¥3
10¥2
103
106
Incorporation by reference.
(a) Certain material is incorporated by
reference into this part with the
approval of the Director of the Federal
Register under 5 U.S.C. 552(a) and 1
CFR part 51. To enforce any edition
other than that specified in this section,
the Environmental Protection Agency
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must publish a notice of the change in
the Federal Register and the material
must be available to the public. All
approved material is available for
inspection at U.S. EPA, Air and
Radiation Docket and Information
Center, 1301 Constitution Ave. NW.,
Room B102, EPA West Building,
Washington, DC 20460, (202) 202–1744,
and is available from the sources listed
below. It is also available for inspection
at the National Archives and Records
Administration (NARA). For
information on the availability of this
material at NARA, call 202–741–6030,
or go to https://www.archives.gov/
federal_register/code_of_federal_
regulations/ibr_locations.html.
(b) American Society for Testing and
Materials, 100 Barr Harbor Drive, P.O.
Box C700, West Conshohocken, PA
19428–2959, (610) 832–9585, https://
www.astm.org/.
(1) ASTM D240–14 Standard Test
Method for Heat of Combustion of
Liquid Hydrocarbon Fuels by Bomb
Calorimeter, approved October 1, 2014,
(‘‘ASTM D240’’), IBR approved for
§ 1036.530(b).
(2) ASTM D4809–13 Standard Test
Method for Heat of Combustion of
Liquid Hydrocarbon Fuels by Bomb
Calorimeter (Precision Method),
approved May 1, 2013, (‘‘ASTM
D4809’’), IBR approved for
§ 1036.530(b).
(c) National Institute of Standards and
Technology, 100 Bureau Drive, Stop
1070, Gaithersburg, MD 20899–1070,
(301) 975–6478, or www.nist.gov.
(1) NIST Special Publication 811,
2008 Edition, Guide for the Use of the
International System of Units (SI),
March 2008, IBR approved for
§ 1036.805.
(2) [Reserved]
§ 1036.815
Confidential information.
The provisions of 40 CFR 1068.10
apply for information you consider
confidential.
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§ 1036.820
Requesting a hearing.
(a) You may request a hearing under
certain circumstances, as described
elsewhere in this part. To do this, you
must file a written request, including a
description of your objection and any
supporting data, within 30 days after we
make a decision.
(b) For a hearing you request under
the provisions of this part, we will
approve your request if we find that
your request raises a substantial factual
issue.
(c) If we agree to hold a hearing, we
will use the procedures specified in 40
CFR part 1068, subpart G.
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§ 1036.825 Reporting and recordkeeping
requirements.
(a) This part includes various
requirements to submit and record data
or other information. Unless we specify
otherwise, store required records in any
format and on any media and keep them
readily available for eight years after
you send an associated application for
certification, or eight years after you
generate the data if they do not support
an application for certification. You are
expected to keep your own copy of
required records rather than relying on
someone else to keep records on your
behalf. We may review these records at
any time. You must promptly send us
organized, written records in English if
we ask for them. We may require you to
submit written records in an electronic
format.
(b) The regulations in § 1036.255 and
40 CFR 1068.25 and 1068.101 describe
your obligation to report truthful and
complete information. This includes
information not related to certification.
Failing to properly report information
and keep the records we specify violates
40 CFR 1068.101(a)(2), which may
involve civil or criminal penalties.
(c) Send all reports and requests for
approval to the Designated Compliance
Officer (see § 1036.801).
(d) Any written information we
require you to send to or receive from
another company is deemed to be a
required record under this section. Such
records are also deemed to be
submissions to EPA. Keep these records
for eight years unless the regulations
specify a different period. We may
require you to send us these records
whether or not you are a certificate
holder.
(e) Under the Paperwork Reduction
Act (44 U.S.C. 3501 et seq.), the Office
of Management and Budget approves
the reporting and recordkeeping
specified in the applicable regulations.
The following items illustrate the kind
of reporting and recordkeeping we
require for engines and vehicles
regulated under this part:
(1) We specify the following
requirements related to engine
certification in this part 1036:
(i) In § 1036.135 we require engine
manufacturers to keep certain records
related to duplicate labels sent to
vehicle manufacturers.
(ii) In subpart C of this part we
identify a wide range of information
required to certify engines.
(iii) In subpart G of this part we
identify several reporting and
recordkeeping items for making
demonstrations and getting approval
related to various special compliance
provisions.
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(iv) In §§ 1036.725, 1036.730, and
1036.735 we specify certain records
related to averaging, banking, and
trading.
(2) We specify the following
requirements related to testing in 40
CFR part 1065:
(i) In 40 CFR 1065.2 we give an
overview of principles for reporting
information.
(ii) In 40 CFR 1065.10 and 1065.12 we
specify information needs for
establishing various changes to
published test procedures.
(iii) In 40 CFR 1065.25 we establish
basic guidelines for storing test
information.
(iv) In 40 CFR 1065.695 we identify
the specific information and data items
to record when measuring emissions.
(3) We specify the following
requirements related to the general
compliance provisions in 40 CFR part
1068:
(i) In 40 CFR 1068.5 we establish a
process for evaluating good engineering
judgment related to testing and
certification.
(ii) In 40 CFR 1068.25 we describe
general provisions related to sending
and keeping information.
(iii) In 40 CFR 1068.27 we require
manufacturers to make engines available
for our testing or inspection if we make
such a request.
(iv) In 40 CFR 1068.105 we require
vehicle manufacturers to keep certain
records related to duplicate labels from
engine manufacturers.
(v) In 40 CFR 1068.120 we specify
recordkeeping related to rebuilding
engines.
(vi) In 40 CFR part 1068, subpart C,
we identify several reporting and
recordkeeping items for making
demonstrations and getting approval
related to various exemptions.
(vii) In 40 CFR part 1068, subpart D,
we identify several reporting and
recordkeeping items for making
demonstrations and getting approval
related to importing engines.
(viii) In 40 CFR 1068.450 and
1068.455 we specify certain records
related to testing production-line
engines in a selective enforcement
audit.
(ix) In 40 CFR 1068.501 we specify
certain records related to investigating
and reporting emission-related defects.
(x) In 40 CFR 1068.525 and 1068.530
we specify certain records related to
recalling nonconforming engines.
■ 116. Part 1037 is revised to read as
follows:
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PART 1037—CONTROL OF EMISSIONS
FROM NEW HEAVY–DUTY MOTOR
VEHICLES
Subpart A—Overview and Applicability
Sec.
1037.1 Applicability.
1037.2 Who is responsible for compliance?
1037.5 Excluded vehicles.
1037.10 How is this part organized?
1037.15 Do any other regulation parts apply
to me?
1037.30 Submission of information.
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Subpart B—Emission Standards and
Related Requirements
1037.101 Overview of emission standards
for heavy-duty vehicles.
1037.102 Exhaust emission standards for
NOX, HC, PM, and CO.
1037.103 Evaporative and refueling
emission standards.
1037.104 Exhaust emission standards for
CO2, CH4, and N2O for heavy-duty
vehicles at or below 14,000 pounds
GVWR.
1037.105 Exhaust emission standards for
CO2 for vocational vehicles.
1037.106 Exhaust emission standards for
CO2 for tractors above 26,000 pounds
GVWR.
1037.107 Emission standards for trailers.
1037.115 Other requirements.
1037.120 Emission-related warranty
requirements.
1037.125 Maintenance instructions and
allowable maintenance.
1037.130 Assembly instructions for
secondary vehicle manufacturers.
1037.135 Labeling.
1037.140 Determining vehicle parameters.
1037.150 Interim provisions.
Subpart C—Certifying Vehicle Families
1037.201 General requirements for
obtaining a certificate of conformity.
1037.205 What must I include in my
application?
1037.210 Preliminary approval before
certification.
1037.211 Preliminary approval for
manufacturers of aerodynamic devices.
1037.220 Amending maintenance
instructions.
1037.225 Amending applications for
certification.
1037.230 Vehicle families, sub-families,
and configurations.
1037.231 Powertrain families.
1037.235 Testing requirements for
certification.
1037.241 Demonstrating compliance with
exhaust emission standards for
greenhouse gas pollutants.
1037.243 Demonstrating compliance with
evaporative emission standards.
1037.250 Reporting and recordkeeping.
1037.255 What decisions may EPA make
regarding my certificate of conformity?
Subpart D—Testing Production Vehicles
and Engines
1037.301 Measurements related to GEM
inputs in a selective enforcement audit.
Subpart E—In-use Testing
1037.401 General provisions.
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Subpart F—Test and Modeling Procedures
1037.501 General testing and modeling
provisions.
1037.510 Duty-cycle exhaust testing.
1037.515 Determining CO2 emissions to
show compliance for trailers.
1037.520 Modeling CO2 emissions to show
compliance for vocational vehicles and
tractors.
1037.525 Aerodynamic measurements.
1037.527 Coastdown procedures for
calculating drag area (CDA).
1037.529 Wind-tunnel procedures for
calculating drag area (CDA).
1037.531 Using computational fluid
dynamics to calculate drag area (CDA).
1037.533 Constant-speed procedure for
calculating drag area (CDA).
1037.540 Special procedures for testing
vehicles with hybrid power take-off.
1037.550 Powertrain testing.
1037.551 Engine-based simulation of
powertrain testing.
1037.555 Special procedures for testing
Phase 1 post-transmission hybrid
systems.
1037.560 Rear-axle efficiency test.
Subpart G—Special Compliance Provisions
1037.601 General compliance provisions.
1037.605 Installing engines certified to
alternate standards for specialty vehicles.
1037.610 Vehicles with off-cycle
technologies.
1037.615 Hybrid vehicles and other
advanced technologies.
1037.620 Responsibilities for multiple
manufacturers.
1037.621 Delegated assembly.
1037.622 Shipment of incomplete vehicles
to secondary vehicle manufacturers.
1037.630 Special purpose tractors.
1037.631 Exemption for vocational vehicles
intended for off-road use.
1037.635 Glider kits.
1037.640 Variable vehicle speed limiters.
1037.645 In-use compliance with family
emission limits (FELs).
1037.650 Tire manufacturers.
1037.655 Post-useful life vehicle
modifications.
1037.660 Automatic engine shutdown
systems.
1037.665 In-use tractor testing.
Subpart H—Averaging, Banking, and
Trading for Certification
1037.701 General provisions.
1037.705 Generating and calculating
emission credits.
1037.710 Averaging.
1037.715 Banking.
1037.720 Trading.
1037.725 What must I include in my
application for certification?
1037.730 ABT reports.
1037.735 Recordkeeping.
1037.740 Restrictions for using emission
credits.
1037.745 End-of-year CO2 credit deficits.
1037.750 What can happen if I do not
comply with the provisions of this
subpart?
1037.755 Information provided to the
Department of Transportation.
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Subpart I—Definitions and Other Reference
Information
1037.801 Definitions.
1037.805 Symbols, abbreviations, and
acronyms.
1037.810 Incorporation by reference.
1037.815 Confidential information.
1037.820 Requesting a hearing.
1037.825 Reporting and recordkeeping
requirements.
Appendix I to Part 1037—Heavy-duty
Transient Test Cycle
Appendix II to Part 1037—Power Take-Off
Test Cycle
Appendix III to Part 1037—Emission Control
Identifiers
Appendix IV to Part 1037—Heavy-Duty
Grade Profile for Phase 2 Steady-State
Test Cycles
Authority: 42 U.S.C. 7401–7671q.
Subpart A—Overview and Applicability
§ 1037.1
Applicability.
(a) This part contains standards and
other regulations applicable to the
emission of the air pollutant defined as
the aggregate group of six greenhouse
gases: Carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide,
methane, hydrofluorocarbons,
perflurocarbons, and sulfur
hexafluoride. The regulations in this
part 1037 apply for all new heavy-duty
vehicles, except as provided in
§§ 1037.5 and 1037.104. This includes
electric vehicles and vehicles fueled by
conventional and alternative fuels. This
also includes certain trailers as
described in §§ 1037.5, 1037.150, and
1037.801.
(b) The provisions of this part apply
for alternative fuel conversions as
specified in 40 CFR part 85, subpart F.
§ 1037.2 Who is responsible for
compliance?
The regulations in this part 1037
contain provisions that affect both
vehicle manufacturers and others.
However, the requirements of this part
are generally addressed to the vehicle
manufacturer(s). The term ‘‘you’’
generally means the vehicle
manufacturer(s), especially for issues
related to certification. Additional
requirements and prohibitions apply to
other persons as specified in § 1037.601
and 40 CFR part 1068.
§ 1037.5
Excluded vehicles.
Except for the definitions specified in
§ 1037.801, this part does not apply to
the following vehicles:
(a) Vehicles not meeting the definition
of ‘‘motor vehicle’’ in § 1037.801.
(b) Vehicles excluded from the
definition of ‘‘heavy-duty vehicle’’ in
§ 1037.801 because of vehicle weight,
weight rating, and frontal area (such as
light-duty vehicles and light-duty
trucks).
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(c) Vehicles produced in model years
before 2014, unless they are certified
under § 1037.150.
(d) Medium-duty passenger vehicles
and other vehicles subject to the lightduty greenhouse gas standards of 40
CFR part 86. See 40 CFR 86.1818 for
greenhouse gas standards that apply for
these vehicles. An example of such a
vehicle would be a vehicle meeting the
definition of ‘‘heavy-duty vehicle’’ in
§ 1037.801 and 40 CFR 86.1803, but also
meeting the definition of ‘‘light truck’’
in 40 CFR 86.1818–12(b)(2).
(e) Vehicles subject to the heavy-duty
greenhouse gas standards of 40 CFR part
86. See 40 CFR 86.1819 for greenhouse
gas standards that apply for these
vehicles. This generally applies for
complete heavy-duty vehicles at or
below 14,000 pounds GVWR.
(f) Aircraft meeting the definition of
‘‘motor vehicle’’. For example, this
would include certain convertible
aircraft that can be adjusted to operate
on public roads. Standards apply
separately to certain aircraft engines, as
described in 40 CFR part 87.
(g) Trailers meeting one or more of the
following characteristics:
(1) Trailers designed specifically for
in-field operations in logging or mining.
(2) Trailers designed to operate at low
speeds such that they are unsuitable for
normal highway operation.
(3) Trailers with permanently affixed
components designed for heavy
construction that allow the trailer to
perform its primary function while
stationary. This would include crane
trailers and concrete trailers. Trailers
would not qualify under this paragraph
(g)(3) based on welding equipment or
other components that are commonly
used separate from trailers.
(4) Trailers less than 35 feet long with
three axles, and all trailers with four or
more axles.
(5) Trailers intended for temporary or
permanent residence, office space, or
other work space, such as campers,
mobile homes, and carnival trailers.
(6) Trailers designed specifically to
transport livestock.
(7) Trailers built before January 1,
2018.
(8) Note that the definition of trailer
in § 1037.801 excludes equipment that
serves similar purposes but are not
intended to be pulled by a tractor. For
example, car-hauling equipment does
not qualify as a trailer under this part if
it is designed to be pulled by a heavyduty vehicle with a pintle hook or hitch
instead of a fifth wheel.
(h) Where it is unclear, you may ask
us to make a determination regarding
the exclusions identified in this section.
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We recommend that you make your
request before you produce the vehicle.
§ 1037.10
How is this part organized?
This part 1037 is divided into the
following subparts:
(a) Subpart A of this part defines the
applicability of part 1037 and gives an
overview of regulatory requirements.
(b) Subpart B of this part describes the
emission standards and other
requirements that must be met to certify
vehicles under this part. Note that
§ 1037.150 discusses certain interim
requirements and compliance
provisions that apply only for a limited
time.
(c) Subpart C of this part describes
how to apply for a certificate of
conformity for vehicles subject to the
standards of § 1037.105 or § 1037.106.
(d) [Reserved]
(e) Subpart E of this part addresses
testing of in-use vehicles.
(f) Subpart F of this part describes
how to test your vehicles and perform
emission modeling (including
references to other parts of the Code of
Federal Regulations) for vehicles subject
to the standards of § 1037.105 or
§ 1037.106.
(g) Subpart G of this part and 40 CFR
part 1068 describe requirements,
prohibitions, and other provisions that
apply to manufacturers, owners,
operators, rebuilders, and all others.
Section 1037.601 describes how 40 CFR
part 1068 applies for heavy-duty
vehicles.
(h) Subpart H of this part describes
how you may generate and use emission
credits to certify vehicles that are
subject to the standards of § 1037.105 or
§ 1037.106.
(i) Subpart I of this part contains
definitions and other reference
information.
§ 1037.15 Do any other regulation parts
apply to me?
(a) Parts 1065 and 1066 of this chapter
describe procedures and equipment
specifications for testing engines and
vehicles to measure exhaust emissions.
Subpart F of this part 1037 describes
how to apply the provisions of part 1065
and part 1066 of this chapter to
determine whether vehicles meet the
exhaust emission standards in this part.
(b) As described in § 1037.601, certain
requirements and prohibitions of part
1068 of this chapter apply to everyone,
including anyone who manufactures,
imports, installs, owns, operates, or
rebuilds any of the vehicles subject to
this part 1037. Part 1068 of this chapter
describes general provisions that apply
broadly, but do not necessarily apply for
all vehicles or all persons. The issues
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addressed by these provisions include
these seven areas:
(1) Prohibited acts and penalties for
manufacturers and others.
(2) Rebuilding and other aftermarket
changes.
(3) Exclusions and exemptions for
certain vehicles.
(4) Importing vehicles.
(5) Selective enforcement audits of
your production.
(6) Recall.
(7) Procedures for hearings.
(c) [Reserved]
(d) Other parts of this chapter apply
if referenced in this part.
§ 1037.30
Submission of information.
Unless we specify otherwise, send all
reports and requests for approval to the
Designated Compliance Officer (see
§ 1037.801). See § 1037.825 for
additional reporting and recordkeeping
provisions.
Subpart B—Emission Standards and
Related Requirements
§ 1037.101 Overview of emission
standards for heavy-duty vehicles.
(a) This part specifies emission
standards for certain vehicles and for
certain pollutants. This part contains
standards and other regulations
applicable to the emission of the air
pollutant defined as the aggregate group
of six greenhouse gases: Carbon dioxide,
nitrous oxide, methane,
hydrofluorocarbons, perflurocarbons,
and sulfur hexafluoride.
(b) The regulated emissions are
addressed in four groups:
(1) Exhaust emissions of NOX, HC,
PM, and CO. These pollutants are
sometimes described collectively as
‘‘criteria pollutants’’ because they are
either criteria pollutants under the
Clean Air Act or precursors to the
criteria pollutant ozone. These
pollutants are also sometimes described
collectively as ‘‘non-greenhouse gas
pollutants’’, although they do not
necessarily have negligible global
warming potential. As described in
§ 1037.102, standards for these
pollutants are provided in 40 CFR part
86.
(2) Exhaust emissions of CO2, CH4,
and N2O. These pollutants are described
collectively in this part as ‘‘greenhouse
gas pollutants’’ because they are
regulated primarily based on their
impact on the climate. These standards
are provided in §§ 1037.105 through
1037.107.
(3) Hydrofluorocarbons. These
pollutants are also ‘‘greenhouse gas
pollutants’’ but are treated separately
from exhaust greenhouse gas pollutants
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listed in paragraph (b)(2) of this section.
These standards are provided in
§ 1037.115.
(4) Fuel evaporative emissions. These
requirements are described in
§ 1037.103.
(c) The regulated heavy-duty vehicles
are addressed in different groups as
follows:
(1) For criteria pollutants, vocational
vehicles and tractors are regulated based
on gross vehicle weight rating (GVWR),
whether they are considered ‘‘sparkignition’’ or ‘‘compression-ignition,’’
and whether they are first sold as
complete or incomplete vehicles.
(2) For greenhouse gas pollutants,
vehicles are regulated in the following
groups:
(i) Tractors above 26,000 pounds
GVWR.
(ii) Trailers are subject to standards as
specified in § 1037.107.
(iii) All other motor vehicles subject
to standards under this part. These other
vehicles are referred to as ‘‘vocational’’
vehicles.
(iv) The greenhouse gas emission
standards in some cases apply
differently for ‘‘spark-ignition’’ and
‘‘compression-ignition’’ engines or
vehicles. Engine requirements are
similarly differentiated, as described in
40 CFR 1036.140. References in this part
1037 to ‘‘spark-ignition’’ or
‘‘compression-ignition’’ defer to the
application of standards under 40 CFR
1036.140. For example, any vehicle with
an engine certified to spark-ignition
standards under 40 CFR part 1036 is
subject to requirements under this part
1037 that apply for spark-ignition
vehicles.
(3) For evaporative and refueling
emissions, vehicles are regulated based
on the type of fuel they use. Vehicles
fueled with volatile liquid fuels or
gaseous fuels are subject to evaporative
emission standards. Vehicles up to a
certain size that are fueled with
gasoline, diesel fuel, ethanol, methanol,
or LPG are subject to refueling emission
standards.
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§ 1037.102 Exhaust emission standards
for NOX, HC, PM, and CO.
See 40 CFR part 86 for the exhaust
emission standards for NOX, HC, PM,
and CO that apply for heavy-duty
vehicles.
§ 1037.103 Evaporative and refueling
emission standards.
(a) Applicability. Evaporative and
refueling emission standards apply to
heavy-duty vehicles as follows:
(1) Complete and incomplete heavyduty vehicles at or below 14,000 pounds
GVWR must meet evaporative and
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refueling emission standards as
specified in 40 CFR part 86, subpart S,
instead of the requirements specified in
this section.
(2) Heavy-duty vehicles above 14,000
pounds GVWR that run on volatile
liquid fuel (such as gasoline or ethanol)
or gaseous fuel (such as natural gas or
LPG) must meet evaporative and
refueling emission standards as
specified in this section.
(b) Emission standards. The
evaporative and refueling emission
standards and measurement procedures
specified in 40 CFR 86.1813 apply for
vehicles above 14,000 pounds GVWR,
except as described in this section. The
evaporative emission standards phase in
over model years 2018 through 2022,
with provisions allowing for voluntary
compliance with the standards as early
as model year 2015. Count vehicles
subject to standards under this section
the same as heavy-duty vehicles at or
below 14,000 pounds GVWR to comply
with the phase-in requirements
specified in 40 CFR 86.1813. These
vehicles may generate and use emission
credits as described in 40 CFR part 86,
subpart S, but only for vehicles that are
tested for certification instead of relying
on the provisions of paragraph (c) of this
section. The following provisions apply
instead of what is specified in 40 CFR
86.1813:
(1) The refueling standards in 40 CFR
86.1813–17(b) apply to complete
vehicles starting in model year 2022;
they are optional for incomplete
vehicles.
(2) The leak standard in 40 CFR
86.1813–17(a)(4) does not apply.
(3) The FEL cap relative to the diurnal
plus hot soak standard for low-altitude
testing is 1.9 grams per test.
(4) The diurnal plus hot soak standard
for high-altitude testing is 2.3 grams per
test.
(5) Testing does not require
measurement of exhaust emissions.
Disregard references in subpart B of this
part to procedures, equipment
specifications, and recordkeeping
related to measuring exhaust emissions.
All references to the exhaust test under
40 CFR part 86, subpart B, are
considered the ‘‘dynamometer run’’ as
part of the evaporative testing sequence
under this subpart.
(6) Vehicles not yet subject to the Tier
3 standards in 40 CFR 86.1813 must
meet evaporative emission standards as
specified in 40 CFR 86.008–10(b)(1) and
(2) for Otto-cycle applications and 40
CFR 86.007–11(b)(3)(ii) and (b)(4)(ii) for
diesel-cycle applications.
(c) Compliance demonstration. You
may provide a statement in the
application for certification that
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40609
vehicles above 14,000 pounds GVWR
comply with evaporative and refueling
emission standards instead of
submitting test data if you include an
engineering analysis describing how
vehicles include design parameters,
equipment, operating controls, or other
elements of design that adequately
demonstrate that vehicles comply with
the standards. We would expect
emission control components and
systems to exhibit a comparable degree
of control relative to vehicles that
comply based on testing. For example,
vehicles that comply under this
paragraph (c) should rely on comparable
material specifications to limit fuel
permeation, and components should be
sized and calibrated to correspond with
the appropriate fuel capacities, fuel flow
rates, purge strategies, and other vehicle
operating characteristics. You may
alternatively show that design
parameters are comparable to those for
vehicles at or below 14,000 pounds
GVWR certified under 40 CFR part 86,
subpart S.
(d) CNG refueling requirement.
Compressed natural gas vehicles must
meet the requirements for fueling
connection devices as specified in 40
CFR 86.1813–17(f)(1). Vehicles meeting
these requirements are deemed to
comply with evaporative and refueling
emission standards.
(e) LNG refueling requirement.
Liquefied natural gas vehicles must
meet the requirements in Section 4.2 of
SAE J2343 (incorporated by reference in
§ 1037.810), which specifies that
vehicles meet a five-day hold time after
a refueling event before the fuel reaches
the point of venting to relieve pressure.
This hold time starts immediately after
a conventional refueling event
corresponding to the vehicle’s refueling
fittings and other hardware, without any
stabilization period to reach a different
starting condition for the fuel in the
tank. The vehicle must remain parked
away from direct sun with ambient
temperatures between (20 and 30) °C
throughout the measurement procedure.
This standard and procedure are
consistent with Section 9.3.5 of NFPA
52, except that NFPA specifies a threeday hold time. Vehicles meeting these
requirements are deemed to comply
with evaporative and refueling emission
standards. The provisions of this
paragraph (e) are optional for vehicles
produced before January 1, 2020.
(f) Incomplete vehicles. If you sell
incomplete vehicles, you must identify
the maximum fuel tank capacity for
which you designed the vehicle’s
evaporative emission control system.
(g) Useful life. The evaporative
emission standards of this section apply
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for the full useful life, expressed in
service miles or calendar years,
whichever comes first. The useful life
values for the standards of this section
are described in 40 CFR 86.1805.
(h) Auxiliary engines and separate
fuel systems. The provisions of this
paragraph (g) apply for vehicles with
auxiliary engines. This includes any
engines installed in the final vehicle
configuration that contribute no motive
power through the vehicle’s
transmission.
(1) Auxiliary engines and associated
fuel-system components must be
installed when testing complete
vehicles. If the auxiliary engine draws
fuel from a separate fuel tank, you must
fill the extra fuel tank before the start of
diurnal testing as described for the
vehicle’s main fuel tank. Use good
engineering judgment to ensure that any
nonmetal portions of the fuel system
related to the auxiliary engine have
reached stabilized levels of permeation
emissions. The auxiliary engine must
not operate during the running loss test
or any other portion of testing under
this section.
(2) For testing with incomplete
vehicles, you may omit installation of
auxiliary engines and associated fuelsystem components as long as those
components installed in the final
configuration are certified to meet the
applicable emission standards for Small
SI equipment described in 40 CFR
1054.112 or for Large SI engines in 40
CFR 1048.105. For any fuel-system
components that you do not install,
your installation instructions must
describe this certification requirement.
§ 1037.104 Exhaust emission standards
for CO2, CH4, and N2O for heavy-duty
vehicles at or below 14,000 pounds GVWR.
Heavy-duty vehicles at or below
14,000 pounds GVWR are not subject to
the provisions of this part 1037 if they
are subject to 40 CFR part 86, subpart
S, including all vehicles certified under
40 CFR part 86, subpart S. See 40 CFR
86.1819 and 86.1865 for detailed
provisions that apply for these vehicles.
§ 1037.105 Exhaust emission standards
for CO2 for vocational vehicles.
(a) The standards of this section apply
for the following vehicles:
(1) Vehicles above 14,000 pounds
GVWR and at or below 26,000 pounds
GVWR, but not certified to the vehicle
standards in 40 CFR 86.1819.
(2) Vehicles above 26,000 pounds
GVWR that are not tractors.
(3) Vocational tractors.
(4) Heavy-duty vehicles at or below
14,000 pounds GVWR that are excluded
from the standards in 40 CFR 86.1819 or
that use engines certified under
§ 1037.150(m).
(b) CO2 standards apply as described
in this paragraph (b). The provisions of
§ 1037.241 specify how to comply with
these standards. Standards differ based
on engine cycle, vehicle weight class,
and intended vehicle duty cycle. See
§ 1037.510(c) to determine which duty
cycle applies.
(1) Model year 2027 and later vehicles
are subject to CO2 standards
corresponding to the selected
subcategories as shown in the following
table:
TABLE 1 OF § 1037.105—PHASE 2 CO2 STANDARDS FOR MODEL YEAR 2027 AND LATER VOCATIONAL VEHICLES
[g/ton-mile]
Engine type
Vehicle size
Compression-ignition ...................................
Compression-ignition ...................................
Compression-ignition ...................................
Spark-ignition ...............................................
Spark-ignition ...............................................
Spark-ignition ...............................................
(2) Model year 2024 through 2026
vehicles are subject to CO2 standards
corresponding to the selected
Class
Class
Class
Class
Class
Class
Multi-purpose
2b–5 ..................................................
6–7 ....................................................
8 ........................................................
2b–5 ..................................................
6–7 ....................................................
8 ........................................................
Regional
280
174
183
308
191
198
Urban
292
170
174
321
187
188
272
172
182
299
189
196
subcategories as shown in the following
table:
TABLE 2 OF § 1037.105—PHASE 2 CO2 STANDARDS FOR MODEL YEAR 2024 AND LATER VOCATIONAL VEHICLES
[g/ton-mile]
Engine type
Vehicle size
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Compression-ignition ...................................
Compression-ignition ...................................
Compression-ignition ...................................
Spark-ignition ...............................................
Spark-ignition ...............................................
Spark-ignition ...............................................
(3) Model year 2021 through 2023
vehicles are subject to CO2 standards
corresponding to the selected
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Class
Class
Class
Class
Class
Class
Multi-purpose
2b–5 ..................................................
6–7 ....................................................
8 ........................................................
2b–5 ..................................................
6–7 ....................................................
8 ........................................................
292
181
192
321
199
210
subcategories as shown in the following
table:
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13JYP2
Regional
Urban
304
178
182
334
196
199
284
179
190
312
197
208
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TABLE 3 OF § 1037.105—PHASE 2 CO2 STANDARDS FOR MODEL YEAR 2021 THROUGH 2023 VOCATIONAL VEHICLES
[g/ton-mile]
Engine type
Vehicle size
Compression-ignition ...................................
Compression-ignition ...................................
Compression-ignition ...................................
Spark-ignition ...............................................
Spark-ignition ...............................................
Spark-ignition ...............................................
Class
Class
Class
Class
Class
Class
(4) You may certify model year 2021
and later emergency vehicles to the CO2
standards specified in Table 5 of this
section instead of the standards
specified in paragraphs (b)(1) through
(3) of this section. Vehicles certified to
these alternative standards may not
generate emission credits.
Multi-purpose
2b–5 ..................................................
6–7 ....................................................
8 ........................................................
2b–5 ..................................................
6–7 ....................................................
8 ........................................................
Regional
305
190
200
329
205
216
TABLE 5 OF § 1037.105—ALTERNATIVE PHASE 2 CO2 STANDARDS
FOR EMERGENCY VEHICLES
[g/ton-mile]
Urban
318
186
189
343
201
204
296
188
198
320
203
214
(5) Model year 2014 through 2020
vehicles are subject to Phase 1 CO2
standards as shown in the following
table:
CO2 standard
Vehicle size
Class 2b–5 ..........................
Class 6–7 ............................
Class 8 ................................
321
201
213
TABLE 4 OF § 1037.105—PHASE 1 CO2 STANDARDS FOR MODEL YEAR 2014 THROUGH 2020 VOCATIONAL VEHICLES
[g/ton-mile]
CO2 standard for model
years 2014–2016
Vehicle size
Class 2b–5 ...........................................................................................................................
Class 6–7 .............................................................................................................................
Class 8 .................................................................................................................................
(c) No CH4 or N2O standards apply
under this section. See 40 CFR part 1036
for CH4 or N2O standards that apply to
engines used in these vehicles.
(d) You may generate or use emission
credits for averaging, banking, and
trading as described in subpart H of this
part. This requires that you specify a
Family Emission Limit (FEL) for CO2 for
each vehicle subfamily. The FEL may
not be less than the result of emission
modeling from § 1037.520. These FELs
serve as the emission standards for the
vehicle subfamily instead of the
standards specified in paragraph (b) of
this section.
(e) The exhaust emission standards of
this section apply for the full useful life,
expressed in service miles or calendar
years, whichever comes first. The
following useful life values apply for the
standards of this section:
CO2 standard for model
year 2017 and later
388
234
226
(1) 150,000 miles or 15 years,
whichever comes first, for Class 2b
through Class 5 vehicles.
(2) 185,000 miles or 10 years,
whichever comes first, for Class 6 and
Class 7 vehicles.
(3) 435,000 miles or 10 years,
whichever comes first, for Class 8
vehicles.
(f) See § 1037.631 for provisions that
exempt certain vehicles used in off-road
operation from the standards of this
section.
(g) You may optionally certify a
vocational vehicle to the standards and
useful life applicable to a heavier
vehicle service class (such as medium
heavy-duty instead of light heavy-duty),
provided you do not generate credits
with the vehicle. If you include lighter
vehicles in a credit-generating subfamily
(with an FEL below the standard),
373
225
222
exclude their production volume from
the credit calculation. Conversely, if you
include lighter vehicles in a credit-using
subfamily, you must include their
production volume in the credit
calculation.
§ 1037.106 Exhaust emission standards
for CO2 for tractors above 26,000 pounds
GVWR.
(a) The CO2 standards of this section
apply for tractors above 26,000 pounds
GVWR. Note that the standards of this
section do not apply for vehicles
classified as ‘‘vocational tractors’’ under
§ 1037.630,
(b) The CO2 standards for tractors
above 26,000 pounds GVWR are given
in Table 1 of this section. The
provisions of § 1037.241 specify how to
comply with these standards.
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TABLE 1 OF § 1037.106—CO2 STANDARDS FOR CLASS 7 AND CLASS 8 TRACTORS BY MODEL YEAR
[g/ton-mile]
Phase 1
standards for
model years
2014–2016
Subcategory 1
Class
Class
Class
Class
7
7
7
8
Low-Roof (all cab styles) ....................
Mid-Roof (all cab styles) .....................
High-Roof (all cab styles) ...................
Low-Roof Day Cab .............................
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Phase 1
standards for
model years
2017–2020
107
119
124
81
Frm 00475
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104
115
120
80
Sfmt 4702
Phase 2
standards for
model years
2021–2023
Phase 2
standards for
model years
2024–2026
97
107
109
78
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13JYP2
90
100
101
72
Phase 2
standards for
model year 2027
and later
87
96
96
70
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TABLE 1 OF § 1037.106—CO2 STANDARDS FOR CLASS 7 AND CLASS 8 TRACTORS BY MODEL YEAR—Continued
[g/ton-mile]
Subcategory 1
Phase 1
standards for
model years
2014–2016
Phase 1
standards for
model years
2017–2020
Class 8 Low-Roof Sleeper Cab .......................
Class 8 Mid-Roof Day Cab ..............................
Class 8 Mid-Roof Sleeper Cab ........................
Class 8 High-Roof Day Cab ............................
Class 8 High-Roof Sleeper Cab ......................
Heavy-Haul Tractors ........................................
68
88
76
92
75
............................
66
86
73
89
72
............................
1 Sub-category
Phase 2
standards for
model years
2021–2023
Phase 2
standards for
model years
2024–2026
70
84
78
86
77
54
Phase 2
standards for
model year 2027
and later
64
78
71
79
70
52
62
76
69
76
67
51
terms are defined in § 1037.801.
(c) No CH4 or N2O standards apply
under this section. See 40 CFR part 1036
for CH4 or N2O standards that apply to
engines used in these vehicles.
(d) You may generate or use emission
credits for averaging, banking, and
trading as described in subpart H of this
part. This requires that you calculate a
credit quantity if you specify a Family
Emission Limit (FEL) that is different
than the standard specified in this
section for a given pollutant. The FEL
may not be less than the result of
emission modeling from § 1037.520.
These FELs serve as the emission
standards for the specific vehicle
subfamily instead of the standards
specified in paragraph (a) of this
section.
(e) The exhaust emission standards of
this section apply for the full useful life,
expressed in service miles or calendar
years, whichever comes first. The
following useful life values apply for the
standards of this section:
(1) 185,000 miles or 10 years,
whichever comes first, for vehicles at or
below 33,000 pounds GVWR.
(2) 435,000 miles or 10 years,
whichever comes first, for vehicles
above 33,000 pounds GVWR.
(f) You may optionally certify a tractor
to the standards and useful life
applicable to a heavier vehicle service
class (such as heavy heavy-duty instead
of medium heavy-duty), provided you
do not generate credits with the vehicle.
If you include lighter vehicles in a
credit-generating subfamily (with an
FEL below the standard), exclude its
production volume from the credit
calculation. Conversely, if you include
lighter vehicles in a credit-using
subfamily, you must include their
production volume in the credit
calculation.
§ 1037.107
Emission standards for trailers.
The exhaust emission standards
specified in this section apply to trailers
based on the effect of trailer designs on
the performance of the trailer in
conjunction with a tractor; this accounts
for the effect of the trailer on the
tractor’s exhaust emissions, even though
trailers themselves have no exhaust
emissions.
(a) Standards apply for trailers as
follows:
(1) Different levels of stringency apply
for box vans depending on features that
may affect aerodynamic performance.
You may optionally meet less stringent
standards for different trailer types,
which we characterize as follows:
(i) For trailers 35 feet or longer, ‘‘nonaero trailers’’ are box vans that have a
rear lift gate or rear hinged ramp, and
at least one of the following side
features: side lift gate, belly box, sidemounted pull-out platform, steps for
side-door access, or a drop-deck design.
For trailers less than 35 feet long, ‘‘nonaero trailers’’ are refrigerated box vans
with at least one of the side features
identified for longer trailers.
(ii) ‘‘Partial-aero trailers’’ are box vans
that have at least one of the side features
identified in paragraph (a)(1)(i) of this
section. Long box vans also qualify as
partial-aero trailers if they have a rear
lift gate or rear hinged ramp. Note that
this paragraph (a)(1)(ii) does not apply
for box vans designated as ‘‘non-aero
trailers’’ under paragraph (a)(1)(i) of this
section.
(iii) ‘‘Full-aero trailers’’ are box vans
that do not meet the specifications of
either paragraph (a)(1)(i) or (ii) of this
section.
(2) CO2 standards apply for full-aero
trailers as specified in the following
table:
TABLE 1 OF § 1037.107—PHASE 2 CO2 STANDARDS FOR TRAILERS
[g/ton-mile]
Dry van
Refrigerated van
Model year
Short
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2018–2020 .......................................................................................................
2021–2023 .......................................................................................................
2024–2026 .......................................................................................................
2027+ ...............................................................................................................
(3) Partial-aero trailers may continue
to meet the 2024 standards in 2027 and
later model years.
(4) Non-box trailers and non-aero
trailers must meet standards as follows:
(i) Trailers must use qualified
automatic tire inflation systems with
wheels on all axles.
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Long
Short
Long
144
143
141
140
83
81
79
77
147
146
144
144
84
82
79
77
(ii) Trailers must use tires with a
TRRL at or below 4.7 kg/ton. Through
model year 2023, trailers may instead
use tires with a TRRL at or below 5.1 kg/
ton.
(5) You may generate or use emission
credits for averaging to demonstrate
compliance with the standards specified
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in paragraph (a)(2) of this section as
described in subpart H of this part. This
requires that you specify a Family
Emission Limit (FEL) for CO2 for each
vehicle subfamily. The FEL may not be
less than the result of the emission
calculation in § 1037.515. These FELs
serve as the emission standards for the
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specific vehicle subfamily instead of the
standards specified in paragraph (a) of
this section. You may not use averaging
for non-box trailers, partial-aero trailers,
or non-aero trailers that meet standards
under paragraph (a)(3) or (a)(4) of this
section, and you may not use emission
credits for banking or trading for any
trailers.
(6) The provisions of § 1037.241
specify how to comply with the
standards of this section.
(b) No CH4, N2O, or HFC standards
apply under this section.
(c) The emission standards of this
section apply for a useful life of 10
years.
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§ 1037.115
Other requirements.
Vehicles required to meet the
emission standards of this part must
meet the following additional
requirements, except as noted elsewhere
in this part:
(a) Adjustable parameters. Vehicles
that have adjustable parameters must
meet all the requirements of this part for
any adjustment in the physically
adjustable range. We may require that
you set adjustable parameters to any
specification within the adjustable range
during any testing. See 40 CFR 86.094–
22 for information related to
determining whether or not an operating
parameter is considered adjustable. You
must ensure safe vehicle operation
throughout the physically adjustable
range of each adjustable parameter,
including consideration of production
tolerances. Note that adjustable roof
fairings and trailer rear fairings are
deemed not to be adjustable parameters.
(b) Prohibited controls. You may not
design your vehicles with emission
control devices, systems, or elements of
design that cause or contribute to an
unreasonable risk to public health,
welfare, or safety while operating. For
example, this would apply if the vehicle
emits a noxious or toxic substance it
would otherwise not emit that
contributes to such an unreasonable
risk.
(c) [Reserved]
(d) Defeat devices. 40 CFR 1068.101
prohibits the use of defeat devices.
(e) Air conditioning leakage. Loss of
refrigerant from your air conditioning
systems may not exceed a total leakage
rate of 11.0 grams per year or a percent
leakage rate of 1.50 percent per year,
whichever is greater. Calculate the total
leakage rate in g/year as specified in 40
CFR 86.1867–12(a). Calculate the
percent leakage rate as: [total leakage
rate (g/yr)] ÷ [total refrigerant capacity
(g)] × 100. Round your percent leakage
rate to the nearest one-hundredth of a
percent. This paragraph (e) does not
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apply for refrigeration units installed on
trailers or for refrigeration units on
vocational vehicles that are limited to
cooling cargo.
(1) For purposes of this requirement,
‘‘refrigerant capacity’’ is the total mass
of refrigerant recommended by the
vehicle manufacturer as representing a
full charge. Where full charge is
specified as a pressure, use good
engineering judgment to convert the
pressure and system volume to a mass.
(2) If your system uses a refrigerant
other than HFC–134a that is listed as an
acceptable substitute refrigerant for
heavy-duty vehicles under 40 CFR part
82, subpart G, and the substitute
refrigerant is identified in 40 CFR
86.1867–12(e), your system is deemed to
meet the leakage standard in this
paragraph (e), consistent with good
engineering judgment, and the leakage
rate reporting requirement of
§ 1037.205(c)(1) does not apply. If your
system uses any other refrigerant that is
listed as an acceptable substitute
refrigerant for heavy-duty vehicles
under 40 CFR part 82, subpart G,
contact us for procedures for calculating
the leakage rate in a way that
appropriately accounts for the
refrigerant’s properties.
§ 1037.120 Emission-related warranty
requirements.
(a) General requirements. You must
warrant to the ultimate purchaser and
each subsequent purchaser that the new
vehicle, including all parts of its
emission control system, meets two
conditions:
(1) It is designed, built, and equipped
so it conforms at the time of sale to the
ultimate purchaser with the
requirements of this part.
(2) It is free from defects in materials
and workmanship that cause the vehicle
to fail to conform to the requirements of
this part during the applicable warranty
period.
(b) Warranty period. (1) Your
emission-related warranty must be valid
for at least:
(i) 5 years or 50,000 miles for sparkignition vehicles and Class 5 and lighter
heavy-duty vehicles (except tires).
(ii) 5 years or 100,000 miles for Class
6 through Class 8 heavy-duty vehicles
(except tires).
(iii) 5 years for trailers (except tires).
(iv) 1 year for tires installed on
trailers, and 2 years or 24,000 miles for
all other tires.
(2) You may offer an emission-related
warranty more generous than we
require. The emission-related warranty
for the vehicle may not be shorter than
any basic mechanical warranty you
provide to that owner without charge for
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40613
the vehicle. Similarly, the emissionrelated warranty for any component
may not be shorter than any warranty
you provide to that owner without
charge for that component. This means
that your warranty for a given vehicle
may not treat emission-related and
nonemission-related defects differently
for any component. The warranty period
begins when the vehicle is placed into
service.
(c) Components covered. The
emission-related warranty covers tires,
automatic tire inflation systems, vehicle
speed limiters, idle shutdown systems,
hybrid system components, and devices
added to the vehicle to improve
aerodynamic performance (not
including standard components such as
hoods or mirrors even if they have been
optimized for aerodynamics), to the
extent such emission-related
components are included in your
application for certification. The
emission-related warranty also covers
other added emission-related
components to the extent they are
included in your application for
certification. The emission-related
warranty covers all components whose
failure would increase a vehicle’s
emissions of air conditioning
refrigerants (for vehicles subject to air
conditioning leakage standards), and it
covers all components whose failure
would increase a vehicle’s evaporative
emissions (for vehicles subject to
evaporative emission standards). The
emission-related warranty covers these
components even if another company
produces the component. Your
emission-related warranty does not need
to cover components whose failure
would not increase a vehicle’s
emissions of any regulated pollutant.
(d) Limited applicability. You may
deny warranty claims under this section
if the operator caused the problem
through improper maintenance or use,
as described in 40 CFR 1068.115.
(e) Owners manual. Describe in the
owners manual the emission-related
warranty provisions from this section
that apply to the vehicle.
§ 1037.125 Maintenance instructions and
allowable maintenance.
Give the ultimate purchaser of each
new vehicle written instructions for
properly maintaining and using the
vehicle, including the emission control
system. The maintenance instructions
also apply to service accumulation on
any of your emission-data vehicles. See
paragraph (i) of this section for
requirements related to tire
replacement. Only the provisions of
paragraph (h) of this section apply for
trailers.
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(a) Critical emission-related
maintenance. Critical emission-related
maintenance includes any adjustment,
cleaning, repair, or replacement of
critical emission-related components.
This may also include additional
emission-related maintenance that you
determine is critical if we approve it in
advance. You may schedule critical
emission-related maintenance on these
components if you demonstrate that the
maintenance is reasonably likely to be
done at the recommended intervals on
in-use vehicles. We will accept
scheduled maintenance as reasonably
likely to occur if you satisfy any of the
following conditions:
(1) You present data showing that, if
a lack of maintenance increases
emissions, it also unacceptably degrades
the vehicle’s performance.
(2) You present survey data showing
that at least 80 percent of vehicles in the
field get the maintenance you specify at
the recommended intervals.
(3) You provide the maintenance free
of charge and clearly say so in your
maintenance instructions.
(4) You otherwise show us that the
maintenance is reasonably likely to be
done at the recommended intervals.
(b) Recommended additional
maintenance. You may recommend any
additional amount of maintenance on
the components listed in paragraph (a)
of this section, as long as you state
clearly that these maintenance steps are
not necessary to keep the emissionrelated warranty valid. If operators do
the maintenance specified in paragraph
(a) of this section, but not the
recommended additional maintenance,
this does not allow you to disqualify
those vehicles from in-use testing or
deny a warranty claim. Do not take
these maintenance steps during service
accumulation on your emission-data
vehicles.
(c) Special maintenance. You may
specify more frequent maintenance to
address problems related to special
situations, such as atypical vehicle
operation. You must clearly state that
this additional maintenance is
associated with the special situation you
are addressing. We may disapprove your
maintenance instructions if we
determine that you have specified
special maintenance steps to address
vehicle operation that is not atypical, or
that the maintenance is unlikely to
occur in use. If we determine that
certain maintenance items do not
qualify as special maintenance under
this paragraph (c), you may identify this
as recommended additional
maintenance under paragraph (b) of this
section.
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(d) Noncritical emission-related
maintenance. Subject to the provisions
of this paragraph (d), you may schedule
any amount of emission-related
inspection or maintenance that is not
covered by paragraph (a) of this section
(that is, maintenance that is neither
explicitly identified as critical emissionrelated maintenance, nor that we
approve as critical emission-related
maintenance). Noncritical emissionrelated maintenance generally includes
maintenance on the components we
specify in 40 CFR part 1068, Appendix
I, that is not covered in paragraph (a) of
this section. You must state in the
owners manual that these steps are not
necessary to keep the emission-related
warranty valid. If operators fail to do
this maintenance, this does not allow
you to disqualify those vehicles from inuse testing or deny a warranty claim. Do
not take these inspection or
maintenance steps during service
accumulation on your emission-data
vehicles.
(e) Maintenance that is not emissionrelated. For maintenance unrelated to
emission controls, you may schedule
any amount of inspection or
maintenance. You may also take these
inspection or maintenance steps during
service accumulation on your emissiondata vehicles, as long as they are
reasonable and technologically
necessary. You may perform this
nonemission-related maintenance on
emission-data vehicles at the least
frequent intervals that you recommend
to the ultimate purchaser (but not the
intervals recommended for severe
service).
(f) Source of parts and repairs. State
clearly on the first page of your written
maintenance instructions that a repair
shop or person of the owner’s choosing
may maintain, replace, or repair
emission control devices and systems.
Your instructions may not require
components or service identified by
brand, trade, or corporate name. Also,
do not directly or indirectly condition
your warranty on a requirement that the
vehicle be serviced by your franchised
dealers or any other service
establishments with which you have a
commercial relationship. You may
disregard the requirements in this
paragraph (f) if you do one of two
things:
(1) Provide a component or service
without charge under the purchase
agreement.
(2) Get us to waive this prohibition in
the public’s interest by convincing us
the vehicle will work properly only
with the identified component or
service.
(g) [Reserved]
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(h) Owners manual. Explain the
owner’s responsibility for proper
maintenance in the owners manual.
(i) Tire maintenance and
replacement. Include instructions that
will enable the owner to replace tires so
that the vehicle conforms to the original
certified vehicle configuration.
§ 1037.130 Assembly instructions for
secondary vehicle manufacturers.
(a) If you sell a certified incomplete
vehicle to a secondary vehicle
manufacturer, give the secondary
vehicle manufacturer instructions for
completing vehicle assembly consistent
with the requirements of this part.
Include all information necessary to
ensure that the final vehicle assembly
an engine will be in its certified
configuration.
(b) Make sure these instructions have
the following information:
(1) Include the heading: ‘‘Emissionrelated installation instructions’’.
(2) State: ‘‘Failing to follow these
instructions when completing assembly
of a heavy-duty motor vehicle violates
federal law, subject to fines or other
penalties as described in the Clean Air
Act.’’
(3) Describe the necessary steps for
installing any diagnostic system
required under 40 CFR part 86.
(4) Describe how your certification is
limited for any type of application, as
illustrated in the following examples:
(i) If the incomplete vehicle is at or
below 8,500 pounds GVWR, state that
the vehicle’s certification is valid under
this part 1037 only if the final
configuration has a vehicle curb weight
above 6,000 pounds or basic vehicle
frontal area above 45 square feet.
(ii) If your engine will be installed in
a vehicle that you certify to meet
diurnal emission standards using an
evaporative canister, but you do not
install the fuel tank, identify the
maximum permissible fuel tank
capacity if tank size affects compliance.
(5) Describe any other instructions to
make sure the vehicle will operate
according to design specifications in
your application for certification.
(c) Provide instructions in writing or
in an equivalent format. You may
include this information with the
incomplete vehicle document required
by DOT. If you do not provide the
instructions in writing, explain in your
application for certification how you
will ensure that each installer is
informed of the installation
requirements.
§ 1037.135
Labeling.
(a) Assign each vehicle a unique
identification number and permanently
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affix, engrave, or stamp it on the vehicle
in a legible way. The vehicle
identification number (VIN) serves this
purpose.
(b) At the time of manufacture, affix
a permanent and legible label
identifying each vehicle. The label must
be—
(1) Attached in one piece so it is not
removable without being destroyed or
defaced.
(2) Secured to a part of the vehicle
needed for normal operation and not
normally requiring replacement.
(3) Durable and readable for the
vehicle’s entire life.
(4) Written in English.
(c) The label must—
(1) Include the heading ‘‘VEHICLE
EMISSION CONTROL
INFORMATION’’.
(2) Include your full corporate name
and trademark. You may identify
another company and use its trademark
instead of yours if you comply with the
branding provisions of 40 CFR 1068.45.
(3) Include EPA’s standardized
designation for the vehicle family.
(4) State the regulatory subcategory
that determines the applicable emission
standards for the vehicle family (see
definition in § 1037.801).
(5) State the date of manufacture
[DAY (optional), MONTH, and YEAR].
You may omit this from the label if you
stamp, engrave, or otherwise
permanently identify it elsewhere on
the vehicle, in which case you must also
describe in your application for
certification where you will identify the
date on the vehicle.
(6) Identify the emission control
system. Use terms and abbreviations as
described in Appendix III to this part or
other applicable conventions. Phase 2
tractors and Phase 2 vocational vehicles
(other than those certified to standards
for emergency vehicles) may omit this
information.
(7) Identify any requirements for fuel
and lubricants that do not involve fuelsulfur levels.
(8) State: ‘‘THIS VEHICLE COMPLIES
WITH U.S. EPA REGULATIONS FOR
[MODEL YEAR] HEAVY-DUTY
VEHICLES.’’
(9) If you rely on another company to
design and install fuel tanks in
incomplete vehicles that use an
evaporative canister for controlling
diurnal emissions, include the following
statement: ‘‘THIS VEHICLE IS
DESIGNED TO COMPLY WITH
EVAPORATIVE EMISSION
STANDARDS WITH UP TO ×
GALLONS OF FUEL TANK
CAPACITY.’’ Complete this statement
by identifying the maximum specified
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fuel tank capacity associated with your
certification.
(d) You may add information to the
emission control information label to
identify other emission standards that
the vehicle meets or does not meet (such
as European standards). You may also
add other information to ensure that the
vehicle will be properly maintained and
used.
(e) You may ask us to approve
modified labeling requirements in this
part 1037 if you show that it is
necessary or appropriate. We will
approve your request if your alternate
label is consistent with the requirements
of this part.
§ 1037.140 Determining vehicle
parameters.
(a) Where applicable, a vehicle’s roof
height and a trailer’s length are
determined from nominal design
specifications, as provided in this
section. Specify design values for roof
height and trailer length to the nearest
inch.
(b) Base roof height on fully inflated
tires having a static loaded radius equal
to the arithmetic mean of the largest and
smallest static loaded radius of tires you
offer or a standard tire we approve.
(c) Base trailer length on the outer
dimensions of the load-carrying
structure. Do not include aerodynamic
devices or HVAC units.
(d) The nominal design specifications
must be within the range of the actual
values from production vehicles
considering normal production
variability. In the case of roof height,
use the mean tire radius specified in
paragraph (b) of this section. If after
production begins it is determined that
your nominal design specifications do
not represent production vehicles, we
may require you to amend your
application for certification under
§ 1037.225.
(e) If your vehicle is equipped with an
adjustable roof fairing, measure the roof
height with the fairing in its lowest
setting.
(f) For any provisions in this part that
depend on the number of axles on a
vehicle, include lift axles or any other
installed axles that can be used to carry
the vehicle’s weight while in motion.
§ 1037.150
Interim provisions.
The provisions in this section apply
instead of other provisions in this part.
(a) Incentives for early introduction.
The provisions of this paragraph (a)
apply with respect to vehicles produced
in model years before 2014
Manufacturers may voluntarily certify
in model year 2013 (or earlier model
years for electric vehicles) to the
greenhouse gas standards of this part.
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(1) This paragraph (a)(1) applies for
regulatory subcategories subject to the
standards of § 1037.105 or § 1037.106.
Except as specified in paragraph (a)(3)
of this section, to generate early credits
under this paragraph for any vehicles
other than electric vehicles, you must
certify your entire U.S.-directed
production volume within the
regulatory subcategory to these
standards. Except as specified in
paragraph (a)(4) of this section, if some
vehicle families within a regulatory
subcategory are certified after the start
of the model year, you may generate
credits only for production that occurs
after all families are certified. For
example, if you produce three vehicle
families in an averaging set and you
receive your certificates for those
families on January 4, 2013, March 15,
2013, and April 24, 2013, you may not
generate credits for model year 2013
production in any of the families that
occurs before April 24, 2013. Calculate
credits relative to the standard that
would apply in model year 2014 using
the equations in subpart H of this part.
You may bank credits equal to the
surplus credits you generate under this
paragraph (a) multiplied by 1.50. For
example, if you have 1.0 Mg of surplus
credits for model year 2013, you may
bank 1.5 Mg of credits. Credit deficits
for an averaging set prior to model year
2014 do not carry over to model year
2014. These credits may be used to
show compliance with the standards of
this part for 2014 and later model years.
We recommend that you notify EPA of
your intent to use this provision before
submitting your applications.
(2) [Reserved]
(3) You may generate emission credits
for the number of additional SmartWay
designated tractors (relative to your
2012 production), provided you do not
generate credits for those vehicles under
paragraph (a)(1) of this section.
Calculate credits for each regulatory
subcategory relative to the standard that
would apply in model year 2014 using
the equations in subpart H of this part.
Use a production volume equal to the
number of designated model year 2013
SmartWay tractors minus the number of
designated model year 2012 SmartWay
tractors. You may bank credits equal to
the surplus credits you generate under
this paragraph (a)(3) multiplied by 1.50.
Your 2012 and 2013 model years must
be equivalent in length.
(4) This paragraph (a)(4) applies
where you do not receive your final
certificate in a regulatory subcategory
within 30 days of submitting your final
application for that subcategory.
Calculate your credits for all production
that occurs 30 days or more after you
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submit your final application for the
subcategory.
(b) Interim standards for pickups and
vans. See 40 CFR part 86, subpart S, for
interim standards that apply for certain
heavy-duty pickups and vans.
(c) Provisions for small
manufacturers. Standards apply on a
delayed schedule for manufacturers
meeting the small business criteria
specified in 13 CFR 121.201. Apply the
small business criteria for NAICS code
336120 for vocational vehicles and
tractors and 336212 for trailers.
Qualifying manufacturers are not
subject to the greenhouse gas standards
of §§ 1037.105 and 1037.106 for vehicles
built before January 1, 2022, Similarly,
qualifying manufacturers are not subject
to the greenhouse gas standards of
§ 1037.107 for trailers built before
January 1, 2019. In addition, qualifying
manufacturers producing vehicles that
run on any fuel other than gasoline, E85,
or diesel fuel may delay complying with
every new standard under this part by
one model year. Qualifying
manufacturers must notify the
Designated Compliance Officer each
model year before introducing these
excluded vehicles into U.S. commerce.
This notification must include a
description of the manufacturer’s
qualification as a small business under
13 CFR 121.201. You must label your
excluded vehicles with the following
statement: ‘‘THIS VEHICLE IS
EXCLUDED UNDER 40 CFR
1037.150(c).’’ Small businesses may
certify their vehicles under this part
1037 before standards start to apply;
however, they may generate emission
credits only if they certify their entire
U.S.-directed production volume within
the applicable averaging set for that
model year.
(d) Air conditioning leakage for
vocational vehicles. The air
conditioning leakage standard of
§ 1037.115 does not apply for model
year 2020 and earlier vocational
vehicles.
(e) [Reserved]
(f) Electric vehicles. All electric
vehicles are deemed to have zero
emissions of CO2, CH4, and N2O. No
emission testing is required for electric
vehicles. Use good engineering
judgment to apply other requirements of
this part to electric vehicles.
(g) Compliance date. Compliance with
the standards of this part was optional
prior to January 1, 2014. This means
that if your 2014 model year begins
before January 1, 2014, you may certify
for a partial model year that begins on
January 1, 2014 and ends on the day
your model year would normally end.
You must label model year 2014
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vehicles excluded under this paragraph
(g) with the following statement: ‘‘THIS
VEHICLE IS EXCLUDED UNDER 40
CFR 1037.150(g).’’
(h) Off-road vehicle exemption. In
unusual circumstances, vehicle
manufacturers may ask us to exempt
vehicles under § 1037.631 based on
other criteria that are equivalent to those
specified in § 1037.631(a). For example,
we would normally not grant relief in
cases where the vehicle manufacturer
had credits or could otherwise comply
with applicable standards. Request
approval for the exemption before you
produce the subject vehicles. Send your
request with supporting information to
the Designated Compliance Officer; we
will coordinate with NHTSA in making
a determination under § 1037.210. If you
introduce into U.S. commerce vehicles
that depend on our approval under this
paragraph (h) before we inform you of
our approval, those vehicles violate 40
CFR 1068.101(a)(1).
(i) Credit multiplier for advanced
technology. If you generate credits from
model year 2020 and earlier vehicles
certified with advanced technology, you
may multiply these credits by 1.50,
except that you may not apply this
multiplier in addition to the early-credit
multiplier of paragraph (a) of this
section.
(j) Limited prohibition related to early
model year engines. The provisions of
this paragraph (j) apply only for vehicles
that have a date of manufacture before
January 1, 2018. See § 1037.635 for
related provisions that apply in later
model years. The prohibition in
§ 1037.601 against introducing into U.S.
commerce a vehicle containing an
engine not certified to the standards
applicable for the calendar year of
installation does not apply for vehicles
using model year 2014 or 2015 sparkignition engines, or any model year
2013 or earlier engines.
(k) Verifying drag areas from in-use
vehicles. This paragraph (k) applies
instead of § 1037.401(b) through model
year 2020. We may measure the drag
area of your vehicles after they have
been placed into service. To account for
measurement variability, your vehicle is
deemed to conform to the regulations of
this part with respect to aerodynamic
performance if we measure its drag area
to be at or below the maximum drag
area allowed for the bin above the bin
to which you certified (for example, Bin
II if you certified the vehicle to Bin III),
unless we determine that you
knowingly produced the vehicle to have
a higher drag area than is allowed for
the bin to which it was certified.
(l) Optional sister-vehicle certification
under 40 CFR part 86. You may certify
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certain complete or cab-complete
vehicles to the GHG standards of 40 CFR
86.1819 instead of the standards of
§ 1037.105 as specified in 40 CFR
86.1819–14(j).
(m) Loose engine sales. Manufacturers
may certify certain model year 2020 and
earlier spark-ignition engines to
emission standards under 40 CFR
1036.108 where they are identical to
engines used in vehicles certified to the
standards of 40 CFR 86.1819. Vehicles
in which those engines are installed are
subject to standards under this part as
specified in § 1037.105. See 40 CFR
86.1819–14(k)(8).
(n) Streamlined preliminary approval
for trailer devices. Before January 1,
2018, manufacturers of aerodynamic
devices for trailers may ask for
preliminary EPA approval of
compliance data for their devices based
on qualifying for designation under the
SmartWay program based on measured
CDA values, whether or not that
involves testing or other methods
specified in § 1037.525. Trailer
manufacturers may certify based on
delta CDA values established under this
paragraph (n) through model year 2020.
Manufacturers must perform testing as
specified in subpart F of this part for
any vehicles or aerodynamic devices not
qualifying for approval under this
paragraph (n).
(o) Phase 1 coastdown procedures.
For tractors subject to Phase 1 standards
under § 1037.106, the default method
for measuring drag area (CDA) is the
coastdown procedure specified in 40
CFR part 1066, subpart D. This includes
preparing the tractor and the standard
trailer with wheels meeting
specifications of § 1037.527(b) and
submitting information related to your
coastdown testing under § 1037.527(h).
(p) ABT reports. Through model year
2017, you may submit a final report
under § 1037.730 up to 270 days after
the end of the model year, as long as
you send a draft report with the same
information within 90 days after the end
of the model year.
(q) Vehicle families for advanced and
off-cycle technologies. For vocational
vehicles and tractors subject to Phase 1
standards, create separate vehicle
families for vehicles that contain
advanced or off-cycle technologies;
group those vehicles together in a
vehicle family if they use the same
advanced or off-cycle technologies.
(r) Limited carryover from Phase 1 to
Phase 2. The provisions for carryover
data in § 1037.235(d) do not allow you
to use aerodynamic test results from
Phase 1 to support a compliance
demonstration for Phase 2 certification.
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(s) Interim useful life for light heavyduty vocational vehicles. Class 2b
through Class 5 vocational vehicles
certified to Phase 1 standards are subject
to a useful life of 110,000 miles or 10
years, whichever comes first, instead of
the useful life specified in § 1037.105.
For emission credits generated from
these Phase 1 vehicles, multiply any
banked credits that you carry forward to
demonstrate compliance with Phase 2
standards by 1.36.
Subpart C—Certifying Vehicle Families
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§ 1037.201 General requirements for
obtaining a certificate of conformity.
(a) You must send us a separate
application for a certificate of
conformity for each vehicle family. A
certificate of conformity is valid from
the indicated effective date until the end
of the model year for which it is issued,
which may not extend beyond
December 31 of that year. You must
renew your certification annually for
any vehicles you continue to produce.
(b) The application must contain all
the information required by this part
and must not include false or
incomplete statements or information
(see § 1037.255).
(c) We may ask you to include less
information than we specify in this
subpart, as long as you maintain all the
information required by § 1037.250.
(d) You must use good engineering
judgment for all decisions related to
your application (see 40 CFR 1068.5).
(e) An authorized representative of
your company must approve and sign
the application.
(f) See § 1037.255 for provisions
describing how we will process your
application.
(g) We may perform confirmatory
testing on your vehicles; for example,
we may test vehicles to verify drag areas
or other GEM inputs. This includes
tractors used to determine Falt-aero under
§ 1037.525. We may require you to
deliver your test vehicles or components
to a facility we designate for our testing.
Alternatively, you may choose to deliver
another vehicle or component that is
identical in all material respects to the
test vehicle or component, or a different
vehicle or component that we determine
can appropriately serve as an emissiondata vehicle for the family. We may
perform confirmatory testing on engines
under 40 CFR part 1036 and may
require you to apply modified fuel maps
from that testing for certification under
this part.
(h) The certification and testing
provisions of 40 CFR part 86, subpart S,
apply instead of the provisions of this
subpart relative to the evaporative and
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refueling emission standards specified
in § 1037.103, except that § 1037.245
describes how to demonstrate
compliance with evaporative emission
standards.
(i) Vehicles and installed engines
must meet exhaust, evaporative, and
refueling emission standards and
certification requirements in 40 CFR
part 86 or 40 CFR part 1036, as
applicable. Include the information
described in 40 CFR part 86, subpart S,
or 40 CFR 1036.205 in your application
for certification in addition to what we
specify in § 1037.205 so we can issue a
single certificate of conformity for all
the requirements that apply for your
vehicle and the installed engine.
§ 1037.205 What must I include in my
application?
This section specifies the information
that must be in your application, unless
we ask you to include less information
under § 1037.201(c). We may require
you to provide additional information to
evaluate your application. References to
testing and emission-data vehicles refer
to testing vehicles or components to
measure any quantity that serves as an
input value for modeling emission rates
under § 1037.515 or 1037.520.
(a) Describe the vehicle family’s
specifications and other basic
parameters of the vehicle’s design and
emission controls. List the fuel type on
which your vocational vehicles and
tractors are designed to operate (for
example, ultra low-sulfur diesel fuel).
(b) Explain how the emission control
system operates. As applicable, describe
in detail all system components for
controlling greenhouse gas emissions,
including all auxiliary emission control
devices (AECDs) and all fuel-system
components you will install on any
production vehicle. Identify the part
number of each component you
describe. For this paragraph (b), treat as
separate AECDs any devices that
modulate or activate differently from
each other. Also describe your modeling
inputs as described in §§ 1037.515 and
1037.520, with the following additional
information if it applies for your
vehicles:
(1) Describe your design for vehicle
speed limiters, consistent with
§ 1037.640.
(2) Describe your design for predictive
cruise control.
(3) Describe your design for automatic
engine shutdown systems, consistent
with § 1037.660.
(4) Describe your engineering analysis
demonstrating that your air
conditioning compressor qualifies as a
high-efficiency model as described in 40
CFR 86.1868–12(h)(5).
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(5) Describe your design for stop-start
technology, including the logic for
engine shutdown and the maximum
duration of engine operation after the
onset of any vehicle conditions
described in § 1037.520(f)(8)(iii).
(6) If you perform powertrain testing
under § 1037.550, report both CO2 and
NOX emission levels corresponding to
each test run.
(7) Include measurements for vehicles
with hybrid power take-off systems.
(c) For vehicles subject to air
conditioning standards, include:
(1) The refrigerant leakage rates (leak
scores).
(2) The type of refrigerant and the
refrigerant capacity of the air
conditioning systems.
(3) The corporate name of the final
installer of the air conditioning system.
(d) Describe any vehicles you selected
for testing and the reasons for selecting
them.
(e) Describe any test equipment and
procedures that you used, including any
special or alternate test procedures you
used (see § 1037.501). Include
information describing the procedures
you used to determine CDA values for
tractors and trailers as specified in
§ 1037.525.
(f) Describe how you operated any
emission-data vehicle before testing,
including the duty cycle and the
number of vehicle operating miles used
to stabilize emission-related
performance. Explain why you selected
the method of service accumulation.
Describe any scheduled maintenance
you did.
(g) Where applicable, list the
specifications of any test fuel to show
that it falls within the required ranges
we specify in 40 CFR part 1065.
(h) Identify the vehicle family’s useful
life.
(i) Include the maintenance
instructions and warranty statement you
will give to the ultimate purchaser of
each new vehicle (see §§ 1037.120 and
1037.125).
(j) Describe your emission control
information label (see § 1037.135).
(k) Identify the emission standards or
FELs to which you are certifying
vehicles in the vehicle family. For
families containing multiple
subfamilies, this means that you must
identify multiple CO2 FELs. For
example, you may identify the highest
and lowest FELs to which any of your
subfamilies will be certified and also list
all possible FELs in between (which
will be in 1 g/ton-mile increments).
(l) Where applicable, identify the
vehicle family’s deterioration factors
and describe how you developed them.
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Present any emission test data you used
for this (see § 1037.241(c)).
(m) Where applicable, state that you
operated your emission-data vehicles as
described in the application (including
the test procedures, test parameters, and
test fuels) to show you meet the
requirements of this part.
(n) [Reserved]
(o) Report calculated and modeled
emission results as follows:
(1) For vocational vehicles and
tractors, report modeling results for ten
configurations. Include modeling inputs
and detailed descriptions of how they
were derived. Unless we specify
otherwise, include the configuration
with the highest modeling result, the
lowest modeling result, and the
configurations with the highest
projected sales.
(2) For trailers that demonstrate
compliance with g/ton-mile emission
standards as described in § 1037.515,
report CO2 emission results for the
configurations with the highest and
lowest calculated values, and for the
configuration with the highest projected
sales.
(p) Where applicable, describe all
adjustable operating parameters (see
§ 1037.115), including production
tolerances. You do not need to include
parameters that do not affect emissions
covered by your application. Include the
following in your description of each
parameter:
(1) The nominal or recommended
setting.
(2) The intended physically adjustable
range.
(3) The limits or stops used to
establish adjustable ranges.
(4) Information showing why the
limits, stops, or other means of
inhibiting adjustment are effective in
preventing adjustment of parameters on
in-use vehicles to settings outside your
intended physically adjustable ranges.
(q) [Reserved]
(r) Unconditionally certify that all the
vehicles in the vehicle family comply
with the requirements of this part, other
referenced parts of the CFR, and the
Clean Air Act.
(s) Include good-faith estimates of
U.S.-directed production volumes by
subfamily. We may require you to
describe the basis of your estimates.
(t) Include the information required
by other subparts of this part. For
example, include the information
required by § 1037.725 if you plan to
generate or use emission credits.
(u) Include other applicable
information, such as information
specified in this part or 40 CFR part
1068 related to requests for exemptions.
(v) Name an agent for service located
in the United States. Service on this
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agent constitutes service on you or any
of your officers or employees for any
action by EPA or otherwise by the
United States related to the
requirements of this part.
§ 1037.210 Preliminary approval before
certification.
If you send us information before you
finish the application, we may review it
and make any appropriate
determinations. Decisions made under
this section are considered to be
preliminary approval, subject to final
review and approval. We will generally
not reverse a decision where we have
given you preliminary approval, unless
we find new information supporting a
different decision. If you request
preliminary approval related to the
upcoming model year or the model year
after that, we will make best-efforts to
make the appropriate determinations as
soon as practicable. We will generally
not provide preliminary approval
related to a future model year more than
two years ahead of time.
§ 1037.211 Preliminary approval for
manufacturers of aerodynamic devices.
(a) If you design or manufacture
aerodynamic devices for trailers, you
may ask us to provide preliminary
approval for the measured performance
of your devices. While decisions made
under this section are considered to be
preliminary approval, we will not
reverse a decision where we have given
you preliminary approval, unless we
find new information supporting a
different decision. For example, where
we measure the performance of your
device after giving you preliminary
approval and its measured performance
is less than your data indicated, we may
rescind the preliminary approval of
your test results.
(b) To request this, you must provide
test data for delta CDA values as
specified in § 1037.150(n) or § 1037.525.
Trailer manufacturers may use approved
delta CDA values as inputs under
§ 1037.515 to support their application
for certification.
(c) The following provisions apply for
combining multiple devices under this
section for the purpose of certifying
trailers:
(1) If the device manufacturer
establishes a delta CDA value in a single
test with multiple aerodynamic devices
installed, trailer manufacturers may use
that delta CDA value directly for the
same combination of aerodynamic
devices installed on production trailers.
(2) Trailer manufacturers may
combine delta CDA values for
aerodynamic devices that are not tested
together, as long as each device does not
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significantly impair the effectiveness of
another, consistent with good
engineering judgment. To approximate
the overall benefit of multiple devices,
calculate a composite delta CDA value
for multiple aerodynamic devices by
applying the full delta CDA value for the
device with the greatest aerodynamic
improvement, adding the secondhighest delta CDA value multiplied by
0.9, and adding any other delta CDA
values multiplied by 0.8.
§ 1037.220 Amending maintenance
instructions.
You may amend your emissionrelated maintenance instructions after
you submit your application for
certification as long as the amended
instructions remain consistent with the
provisions of § 1037.125. You must send
the Designated Compliance Officer a
written request to amend your
application for certification for a vehicle
family if you want to change the
emission-related maintenance
instructions in a way that could affect
emissions. In your request, describe the
proposed changes to the maintenance
instructions. If operators follow the
original maintenance instructions rather
than the newly specified maintenance,
this does not allow you to disqualify
those vehicles from in-use testing or
deny a warranty claim.
(a) If you are decreasing or
eliminating any specified maintenance,
you may distribute the new
maintenance instructions to your
customers 30 days after we receive your
request, unless we disapprove your
request. This would generally include
replacing one maintenance step with
another. We may approve a shorter time
or waive this requirement.
(b) If your requested change would
not decrease the specified maintenance,
you may distribute the new
maintenance instructions anytime after
you send your request. For example,
this paragraph (b) would cover adding
instructions to increase the frequency of
filter changes for vehicles in severe-duty
applications.
(c) You need not request approval if
you are making only minor corrections
(such as correcting typographical
mistakes), clarifying your maintenance
instructions, or changing instructions
for maintenance unrelated to emission
control. We may ask you to send us
copies of maintenance instructions
revised under this paragraph (c).
§ 1037.225 Amending applications for
certification.
Before we issue you a certificate of
conformity, you may amend your
application to include new or modified
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vehicle configurations, subject to the
provisions of this section. After we have
issued your certificate of conformity,
but before the end of the model year,
you may send us an amended
application requesting that we include
new or modified vehicle configurations
within the scope of the certificate,
subject to the provisions of this section.
Before the end of the model year, you
must amend your application if any
changes occur with respect to any
information that is included or should
be included in your application. After
the end of the model year, you may
amend your application only to update
maintenance instructions as described
in § 1037.220 or to modify an FEL as
described in paragraph (f) of this
section.
(a) You must amend your application
before you take any of the following
actions:
(1) Add a vehicle configuration to a
vehicle family. In this case, the vehicle
configuration added must be consistent
with other vehicle configurations in the
vehicle family with respect to the
criteria listed in § 1037.230.
(2) Change a vehicle configuration
already included in a vehicle family in
a way that may affect emissions, or
change any of the components you
described in your application for
certification. This includes production
and design changes that may affect
emissions any time during the vehicle’s
lifetime.
(3) Modify an FEL for a vehicle family
as described in paragraph (f) of this
section.
(b) To amend your application for
certification, send the relevant
information to the Designated
Compliance Officer.
(1) Describe in detail the addition or
change in the vehicle model or
configuration you intend to make.
(2) Include engineering evaluations or
data showing that the amended vehicle
family complies with all applicable
requirements. You may do this by
showing that the original emission-data
vehicle is still appropriate for showing
that the amended family complies with
all applicable requirements.
(3) If the original emission-data
vehicle or emission modeling for the
vehicle family is not appropriate to
show compliance for the new or
modified vehicle configuration, include
new test data or emission modeling
showing that the new or modified
vehicle configuration meets the
requirements of this part.
(4) Include any other information
needed to make your application correct
and complete.
(c) We may ask for more test data or
engineering evaluations. You must give
us these within 30 days after we request
them.
(d) For vehicle families already
covered by a certificate of conformity,
we will determine whether the existing
certificate of conformity covers your
newly added or modified vehicle. You
may ask for a hearing if we deny your
request (see § 1037.820).
(e) For vehicle families already
covered by a certificate of conformity,
you may start producing the new or
modified vehicle configuration anytime
after you send us your amended
application and before we make a
decision under paragraph (d) of this
section. However, if we determine that
the affected vehicles do not meet
applicable requirements, we will notify
you to cease production of the vehicles
and may require you to recall the
vehicles at no expense to the owner.
Choosing to produce vehicles under this
paragraph (e) is deemed to be consent to
recall all vehicles that we determine do
not meet applicable emission standards
or other requirements and to remedy the
nonconformity at no expense to the
owner. If you do not provide
information required under paragraph
(c) of this section within 30 days after
we request it, you must stop producing
the new or modified vehicles.
(f) You may ask us to approve a
change to your FEL in certain cases after
the start of production. The changed
FEL may not apply to vehicles you have
already introduced into U.S. commerce,
except as described in this paragraph (f).
You may ask us to approve a change to
your FEL in the following cases:
(1) You may ask to raise your FEL for
your vehicle subfamily at any time. In
your request, you must show that you
will still be able to meet the emission
standards as specified in subparts B and
H of this part. Use the appropriate FELs
with corresponding production volumes
to calculate emission credits for the
model year, as described in subpart H of
this part.
(2) Where testing applies, you may
ask to lower the FEL for your vehicle
subfamily only if you have test data
from production vehicles showing that
emissions are below the proposed lower
FEL. Otherwise, you may ask to lower
your FEL for your vehicle subfamily at
any time. The lower FEL applies only to
vehicles you produce after we approve
the new FEL. Use the appropriate FELs
with corresponding production volumes
to calculate emission credits for the
model year, as described in subpart H of
this part.
(3) You may ask to add an FEL for
your vehicle family at any time.
§ 1037.230 Vehicle families, sub-families,
and configurations.
(a) For purposes of certifying your
vehicles to greenhouse gas standards,
divide your product line into families of
vehicles based on regulatory
subcategories as specified in this
section. Subcategories are specified
using terms defined in § 1037.801. Your
vehicle family is limited to a single
model year.
(1) Apply subcategories for vocational
vehicles and vocational tractors as
shown in Table 1 of this section. This
involves 21 separate subcategories for
Phase 2 vehicles to account for engine
type, GVWR, and the vehicle
characteristics corresponding to the
duty cycles for vocational vehicles as
specified in § 1037.510; three separate
subcategories apply for emergency
vehicles as described in
§ 1037.105(b)(4). Divide Phase 1
vehicles into three GVWR-based vehicle
classes as shown in Table 1 of this
section, disregarding additional
specified characteristics. Table 1
follows:
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TABLE 1 OF § 1037.230—VOCATIONAL VEHICLE SUBCATEGORIES
Engine type
Class 2b–5
Class 6–7
Compression-ignition .....................
Urban ............................................
Multi-Purpose ................................
Regional ........................................
Urban ............................................
Multi-Purpose ................................
Regional ........................................
Emergency ....................................
Urban ............................................
Multi-Purpose ................................
Regional ........................................
Urban ............................................
Multi-Purpose ................................
Regional ........................................
Emergency ....................................
Spark-ignition .................................
All ...................................................
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Class 8
Urban.
Multi-Purpose.
Regional.
Urban.
Multi-Purpose.
Regional.
Emergency.
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(2) Apply subcategories for tractors
(other than vocational tractors) as
shown in the following table:
TABLE 2 OF § 1037.230—TRACTOR SUBCATEGORIES
Class 7
Class 8
Low-roof tractors ..............................................................
Mid-roof tractors ...............................................................
High-roof tractors ..............................................................
Low-roof day cabs ...........................................................
Mid-roof day cabs ............................................................
High-roof day cabs ..........................................................
Low-roof sleeper cabs.
Mid-roof sleeper cabs.
High-roof sleeper cabs.
Heavy-haul tractors (starting with Phase 2)
(3) Apply subcategories for trailers as
shown in the following table:
TABLE 3 OF § 1037.230— TRAILER SUBCATEGORIES
Full-aero trailers
Partial-aero trailers a
Long dry box vans ............................................................
Short dry box vans ...........................................................
Long refrigerated box vans ..............................................
Short refrigerated box vans ..............................................
Long dry box vans ...........................................................
Short dry box vans ..........................................................
Long refrigerated box vans ..............................................
Short refrigerated box vans .............................................
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a The
Other trailers
Non-aero trailers.
Non-box trailers.
partial-aero subcategories do not apply before model year 2027.
(b) If the vehicles in your family are
being certified to more than one FEL,
subdivide your greenhouse gas vehicle
families into subfamilies that include
vehicles with identical FELs. Note that
you may add subfamilies at any time
during the model year.
(c) Group vehicles into configurations
consistent with the definition of
‘‘vehicle configuration’’ in § 1037.801.
Note that vehicles with hardware or
software differences that are related to
measured or modeled emissions are
considered to be different vehicle
configurations even if they have the
same modeling inputs and FEL. Note
also, that you are not required to
separately identify all configurations for
certification. See paragraph (g) of this
section for provisions allowing you to
group certain hardware differences into
the same configuration. Note that you
are not required to identify all possible
configurations for certification; also, you
are required to include in your final
report only those configurations you
produced.
(d) You may combine dissimilar
vehicles into a single vehicle family in
special circumstances as follows:
(1) For a vehicle model that includes
a range of GVWR values that straddle
weight classes, you may include all the
vehicles in the same vehicle family if
you certify the vehicle family to the
numerically lower CO2 emission
standard from the affected weight
classes. Vehicles that are optionally
certified to a more stringent under this
paragraph (d)(1) are subject to useful-life
and all other provisions corresponding
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to the weight class with the numerically
lower CO2 emission standard.
(2) You may include refrigerated box
vans in a vehicle family with dry box
vans; if you do this, all the trailers in the
family are subject to the standards that
apply for dry box vans. Similarly, you
may include short trailers in a vehicle
family with long trailers; if you do this,
all the trailers in the family are subject
to the standards that apply for long
vans. You may also include short
refrigerated box vans in a vehicle family
with long dry box vans; if you do this,
all the trailers in the family are subject
to the standards that apply for long dry
box vans.
(e) You may divide your families into
more families than specified in this
section.
(f) You may ask us to allow you to
group into the same configuration
vehicles that have very small body
hardware differences that do not
significantly affect drag areas. Note that
this allowance does not apply for
substantial differences, even if the
vehicles have the same measured drag
areas.
§ 1037.231
Powertrain families.
(a) If you choose to perform
powertrain testing as specified in
§ 1037.550, use good engineering
judgment to divide your product line
into powertrain families that are
expected to have similar fuel
consumptions and CO2 emission
characteristics throughout the useful
life. Your powertrain family is limited
to a single model year.
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(b) Except as specified in paragraph
(c) of this section, group powertrains in
the same powertrain family if they share
all the following attributes:
(1) Engine family.
(2) The applicable simulated test
vehicle category according to
§ 1037.550(f): Either Class 2b through 7,
heavy-haul or Class 8 other than heavyhaul.
(3) Number of clutches.
(4) Type of clutch (e.g., wet or dry).
(5) Presence and location of a fluid
coupling such as a torque converter.
(6) Gear configuration, as follows:
(i) Planetary (e.g., simple, compound,
meshed-planet, stepped-planet, multistage).
(ii) Countershaft (e.g., single, double,
triple).
(iii) Continuously variable (e.g.,
pulley, magnetic, torroidal).
(7) Number of available forward gears,
and transmission gear ratio for each
available forward gear, if applicable.
(8) Transmission oil sump
configuration (e.g., conventional or dry).
(9) The power transfer configuration
of any hybrid technology (e.g., series or
parallel).
(10) The energy storage device and
capacity of any hybrid technology (e.g.,
10 MJ hydraulic accumulator, 10 kW·hr
Lithium-ion battery pack, 10 MJ
ultracapacitor bank).
(11) The rated output of any hybrid
mechanical power technology (e.g., 50
kW electric motor).
(c) For powertrains that share all the
attributes described in paragraph (b) of
this section, divide them further into
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separate powertrain families based on
common calibration attributes. Group
powertrains in the same powertrain
family to the extent that powertrain test
results and corresponding emission
levels are expected to be similar
throughout the useful life.
(d) You may subdivide a group of
powertrains with shared attributes
under paragraph (b) of this section into
different powertrain families.
(e) In unusual circumstances, you
may group powertrains into the same
powertrain family even if they do not
have shared attributes under in
paragraph (b) of this section if you show
that their emission characteristics
throughout the useful life will be
similar.
(f) If you include the axle when
performing powertrain testing for the
family, you must limit the family to
include only those axles represented by
the test results. You may include
multiple axle ratios in the family if you
test with the axle expected to produce
the highest emission results.
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§ 1037.235 Testing requirements for
certification.
This section describes the emission
testing you must perform to show
compliance with respect to the
greenhouse gas emission standards in
subpart B of this part, and to determine
any input values from §§ 1037.515 and
1037.520 that involve measured
quantities.
(a) Select emission-data vehicles that
represent production vehicles and
components for the vehicle family
consistent with the specifications in
§§ 1037.205(o), 1037.515, and 1037.520.
Where the test results will represent
multiple vehicles or components with
different emission performance, use
good engineering judgment to select
worst-case emission data vehicles. In
the case of powertrain testing under
§ 1037.550, select a test engine and test
transmission by considering the whole
range of vehicle models covered by the
powertrain family and the mix of duty
cycles specified in § 1037.510.
(b) Test your emission-data vehicles
(including emission-data components)
using the procedures and equipment
specified in subpart F of this part.
Measure emissions (or other parameters,
as applicable) using the specified
procedures.
(c) We may measure emissions (or
other parameters, as applicable) from
any of your emission-data vehicles.
(1) We may decide to do the testing
at your plant or any other facility. If we
do this, you must deliver the vehicle or
component to a test facility we
designate. The vehicle or component
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you provide must be in a configuration
that is suitable for testing. If we do the
testing at your plant, you must schedule
it as soon as possible and make
available the instruments, personnel,
and equipment we need.
(2) If we measure emissions (or other
parameters, as applicable) from your
vehicle or component, the results of that
testing become the official emission
results for the vehicle or component.
Note that changing the official emission
result does not necessarily require a
change in the declared modeling input
value. Unless we later invalidate these
data, we may decide not to consider
your data in determining if your vehicle
family meets applicable requirements.
This applies equally to individual data
points from powertrain testing under
§ 1037.550 or § 1037.551, except that the
results of our testing do not become the
official emission result if our results are
lower than your reported test results.
(3) Before we test one of your vehicles
or components, we may set its
adjustable parameters to any point
within the physically adjustable ranges,
if applicable.
(4) Before we test one of your vehicles
or components, we may calibrate it
within normal production tolerances for
anything we do not consider an
adjustable parameter. For example, this
would apply for a vehicle parameter
that is subject to production variability
because it is adjustable during
production, but is not considered an
adjustable parameter (as defined in
§ 1037.801) because it is permanently
sealed. For parameters that relate to a
level of performance that is itself subject
to a specified range (such as maximum
power output), we will generally
perform any calibration under this
paragraph (c)(4) in a way that keeps
performance within the specified range.
(d) You may ask to use carryover data
for a vehicle or component from a
previous model year instead of doing
new tests if the applicable emission-data
vehicle from the previous model year
remains the appropriate emission-data
vehicle under paragraph (b) of this
section.
(e) We may require you to test a
second vehicle or component of the
same configuration in addition to the
vehicle or component tested under
paragraph (a) of this section.
(f) If you use an alternate test
procedure under 40 CFR 1065.10 and
later testing shows that such testing
does not produce results that are
equivalent to the procedures specified
in subpart F of this part, we may reject
data you generated using the alternate
procedure.
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40621
§ 1037.241 Demonstrating compliance with
exhaust emission standards for greenhouse
gas pollutants.
(a) For purposes of certification, your
vehicle family is considered in
compliance with the CO2 emission
standards in §§ 1037.105 through
1037.107 if all vehicle configurations in
that family have calculated or modeled
CO2 emission rates from § 1037.515 or
§ 1037.520 that are at or below the
applicable standards. Note that FELs are
considered to be the applicable
emission standards with which you
must comply if you participate in the
ABT program in subpart H of this part.
Your vehicle family is deemed not to
comply if any vehicle configuration in
that family has a calculated or modeled
CO2 emission rate that is above the
applicable standard.
(b) In the case of trailer certification
that does not rely on calculated CO2
emission rates, your vehicle family is
considered in compliance with the
emission standards if all vehicle
configurations in that family meet
specified design standards and have
TRRL values at or below the specified
standard. Your family is deemed not to
comply for certification if any trailer
does not meet specified design
standards or if any vehicle configuration
in that family has a measured TRRL
value above the specified standard.
(c) We may require you to provide an
engineering analysis showing that the
performance of your emission controls
will not deteriorate during the useful
life with proper maintenance. If we
determine that your emission controls
are likely to deteriorate during the
useful life, we may require you to
develop and apply deterioration factors
consistent with good engineering
judgment. For example, you may need
to apply a deterioration factor to address
deterioration of battery performance for
a hybrid electric vehicle. Where the
highest useful life emissions occur
between the end of useful life and at the
low-hour test point, base deterioration
factors for the vehicles on the difference
between (or ratio of) the point at which
the highest emissions occur and the
low-hour test point.
§ 1037.243 Demonstrating compliance with
evaporative emission standards.
(a) For purposes of certification, your
vehicle family is considered in
compliance with the evaporative
emission standards in subpart B of this
part if you prepare an engineering
analysis showing that your vehicles in
the family will comply with applicable
standards throughout the useful life,
and there are no test results from an
emission-data vehicle representing the
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family that exceed an emission
standard.
(b) Your evaporative emission family
is deemed not to comply if your
engineering analysis is not adequate to
show that all the vehicles in the family
will comply with applicable emission
standards throughout the useful life, or
if a test result from an emission-data
vehicle representing the family exceeds
an emission standard.
(c) To compare emission levels with
emission standards, apply deterioration
factors to the measured emission levels.
Establish an additive deterioration
factor based on an engineering analysis
that takes into account the expected
aging from in-use vehicles.
(d) Apply the deterioration factor to
the official emission result, as described
in paragraph (c) of this section, then
round the adjusted figure to the same
number of decimal places as the
emission standard. Compare the
rounded emission levels to the emission
standard for each emission-data vehicle.
(e) Your analysis to demonstrate
compliance with emission standards
must take into account your design
strategy for vehicles that require testing.
Specifically, vehicles above 14,000
pounds GVWR are presumed to need
the same technologies that are required
for heavy-duty vehicles at or below
14,000 pounds GVWR. Similarly, your
analysis to establish a deterioration
factor must take into account your
testing to establish deterioration factors
for smaller vehicles.
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§ 1037.250
Reporting and recordkeeping.
(a) Within 90 days after the end of the
model year, send the Designated
Compliance Officer a report including
the total U.S.-directed production
volume of vehicles you produced in
each vehicle family during the model
year (based on information available at
the time of the report). Report by vehicle
identification number and vehicle
configuration and identify the subfamily
identifier. Report uncertified vehicles
sold to secondary vehicle
manufacturers. Small manufacturers
may omit the reporting requirements of
this paragraph (a).
(b) Organize and maintain the
following records:
(1) A copy of all applications and any
summary information you send us.
(2) Any of the information we specify
in § 1037.205 that you were not required
to include in your application.
(3) A detailed history of each
emission-data vehicle (including
emission-related components), if
applicable.
(4) Production figures for each vehicle
family divided by assembly plant.
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(5) Keep a list of vehicle identification
numbers for all the vehicles you
produce under each certificate of
conformity. Also identify the
technologies that make up the certified
configuration for each vehicle your
produce.
(c) Keep required data from emission
tests and all other information specified
in this section for eight years after we
issue your certificate. If you use the
same emission data or other information
for a later model year, the eight-year
period restarts with each year that you
continue to rely on the information.
(d) Store these records in any format
and on any media, as long as you can
promptly send us organized, written
records in English if we ask for them.
You must keep these records readily
available. We may review them at any
time.
(e) If you fail to properly keep records
or to promptly send us information as
required under this part, we may require
that you submit the information
specified in this section after each
calendar quarter, and we may require
that you routinely send us information
that the regulation requires you to
submit only if we request it. If we find
that you are fraudulent or grossly
negligent or otherwise act in bad faith
regarding information reporting and
recordkeeping, we may require that you
send us a detailed description of the
certified configuration for each vehicle
before you produce it.
§ 1037.255 What decisions may EPA make
regarding my certificate of conformity?
(a) If we determine your application is
complete and shows that the vehicle
family meets all the requirements of this
part and the Act, we will issue a
certificate of conformity for your vehicle
family for that model year. We may
make the approval subject to additional
conditions.
(b) We may deny your application for
certification if we determine that your
vehicle family fails to comply with
emission standards or other
requirements of this part or the Clean
Air Act. We will base our decision on
all available information. If we deny
your application, we will explain why
in writing.
(c) In addition, we may deny your
application or suspend or revoke your
certificate if you do any of the
following:
(1) Refuse to comply with any testing
or reporting requirements.
(2) Submit false or incomplete
information (paragraph (e) of this
section applies if this is fraudulent).
This includes doing anything after
submission of your application to
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render any of the submitted information
false or incomplete.
(3) Render any test data inaccurate.
(4) Deny us from completing
authorized activities (see 40 CFR
1068.20). This includes a failure to
provide reasonable assistance.
(5) Produce vehicles for importation
into the United States at a location
where local law prohibits us from
carrying out authorized activities.
(6) Fail to supply requested
information or amend your application
to include all vehicles being produced.
(7) Take any action that otherwise
circumvents the intent of the Act or this
part, with respect to your vehicle
family.
(d) We may void the certificate of
conformity for a vehicle family if you
fail to keep records, send reports, or give
us information as required under this
part or the Act. Note that these are also
violations of 40 CFR 1068.101(a)(2).
(e) We may void your certificate if we
find that you intentionally submitted
false or incomplete information. This
includes rendering submitted
information false or incomplete after
submission.
(f) If we deny your application or
suspend, revoke, or void your
certificate, you may ask for a hearing
(see § 1037.820).
Subpart D—Testing Production
Vehicles and Engines
§ 1037.301 Measurements related to GEM
inputs in a selective enforcement audit.
(a) We may require you to perform
selective enforcement audits under 40
CFR part 1068, subpart E, with respect
to any GEM inputs in your application
for certification. This section describes
how this applies uniquely in certain
circumstances.
(b) A selective enforcement audit
consist of performing measurements
with production vehicles relative to one
or more declared values for GEM inputs,
and using those measured values in
place of your declared values to run
GEM. The vehicle is considered passing
if the new modeled emission result is at
or below the modeled emission result
corresponding to the declared GEM
inputs. If you have reported an FEL for
the vehicle configuration prior to the
start of the audit, we will instead
consider the vehicle passing if the new
cycle-weighted emission result is at or
below the FEL.
(c) For vehicles certified based on
powertrain testing as specified in
§ 1037.550, we may apply the selective
enforcement audit requirements to the
powertrain. If engine manufacturers
perform the powertrain testing and
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include those results in their
certification under 40 CFR part 1036,
they are responsible for selective
enforcement audits related to those
results. Otherwise, the certificate holder
for the vehicle is responsible for the
selective enforcement audit.
(1) A selective enforcement audit for
powertrains would generally consist of
performing a test with the complete
powertrain (engine and transmission
together). We may alternatively allow
you to test the engine on a dynamometer
with no installed transmission as
described in § 1037.551.
(2) Recreate a set of test results for
each of three separate powertrains.
Generate weighted GEM results for each
of ten separate configurations for each of
the three selected powertrains. Each
unique test run for a given configuration
with a particular powertrain constitutes
a separate test for purposes of evaluating
whether the vehicle family meets the
pass-fail criteria under 40 CFR
1068.420. The test result for a single test
run in the audit is considered passing if
it is at or below the value selected as an
input for GEM. Perform testing with up
to ten separate configurations for
additional powertrains as needed to
reach a pass-fail decision under 40 CFR
1068.240. For example, testing three
powertrains over each of ten separate
test runs would represent 30 tests; the
family would have a pass result if 13 or
fewer of the 30 tests are failing, and the
family would have a fail result if 19 or
more of the 30 tests are failing, and
testing with an additional powertrain
would be required if 14–18 of the 30
tests are failing. In the case of testing
engines to simulate powertrain testing,
apply the provisions of this paragraph
(c)(2) based on separately simulated
powertrains and vehicle configurations.
(d) To perform a selective
enforcement audit with respect to drag
area, use the same method you used for
certification; we may instead require
you to use the reference method
specified in § 1037.525. For this
paragraph (d), all measurements for
tractors must include Falt-aero and
adjustments to account for windaveraged drag as applicable under
§ 1037.525. The following provisions
apply instead of 40 CFR 1068.420 for a
selective enforcement audit with respect
to drag area:
(1) Determine whether or not a
vehicle fails to meet standards as
follows:
(i) For tractors, a failed vehicle is one
whose measured drag area exceeds the
maximum drag area corresponding to
the bin you identified in your
application for certification.
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(ii) For trailers, a failed vehicle is a
failed vehicle is one whose delta CDA
based on measured values is less than
the minimum drag area corresponding
to the bin you identified in your
application for certification.
(2) Measure drag area for a minimum
of two vehicles. If one of those vehicles
fails, measure drag area for two
additional vehicles from the vehicle
family. If both of those vehicles fail,
measure drag area for four additional
vehicles from the vehicle family. You
may perform testing on additional
vehicles.
(3) Determine whether a vehicle
family passes or fails the audit as
follows:
(i) For tractors, you reach a pass
decision for the audit if the arithmetic
average value of the drag area for all
tested vehicles is at or below the
maximum value corresponding to the
bin you identified in your application
for certification. You reach a fail
decision for the audit if this average
value is above the maximum value
corresponding to the bin you identified
in your application for certification.
(ii) For trailers, you reach a pass
decision for the audit if the arithmetic
average value of delta CDA is at or above
the minimum value corresponding to
the bin you identified in your
application for certification. You reach
a fail decision for the audit if this
average value is below the minimum
value corresponding to the bin you
identified in your application for
certification.
(4) In the case of trailer certification
that relies on data from a device
manufacturer under § 1037.211, we may
require the device manufacturer to
perform a selective enforcement audit as
described in this paragraph (d). Our test
order will establish the equivalent of a
vehicle family for performing tests for
the audit. If the audit leads to a fail
result for the family, we may revoke our
approval under § 1037.211 as that
relates to any future application for
certification.
(5) If we test some of your vehicles in
addition to your testing, we may decide
not to include your test results as
official data for those vehicles if there is
substantial disagreement between your
testing and our testing. We will reinstate
your data as valid if you show us that
we made an error and your data are
correct. If we perform testing, we may
choose to stop testing after any number
of tests.
(6) If we rely on our test data instead
of yours, we will notify you in writing
of our decision and the reasons we
believe your facility is not appropriate
for doing the tests we require under this
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40623
paragraph (c). You may request in
writing that we consider your test
results from the same facility for future
testing if you show us that you have
made changes to resolve the problem.
(7) We may allow you to perform
additional replicate tests with a given
vehicle to reduce measurement
variability, consistent with good
engineering judgment.
(e) Selective enforcement audit
provisions for fuel maps apply to engine
manufacturers as specified in 40 CFR
1036.301.
(f) We may suspend or revoke
certificates, based on the outcome of a
selective enforcement audit, for any
appropriate configurations within one
or more vehicle families.
(g) We may apply selective
enforcement audit provisions with
respect to off-cycle technologies, with
any necessary modifications, consistent
with good engineering judgment.
Subpart E—In-Use Testing
§ 1037.401
General provisions.
(a) We may perform in-use testing of
any vehicle subject to the standards of
this part. For example, we may test
vehicles to verify drag areas or other
GEM inputs as specified in paragraph
(b) of this section.
(b) We may measure the drag area of
a vehicle you produced after it has been
placed into service. We may use any of
the procedures specified in § 1037.525
for measuring drag area. Your vehicle
conforms to the regulations of this part
with respect to aerodynamic
performance if we measure its drag area
to be at or below the maximum drag
area allowed for the bin to which that
configuration was certified.
Subpart F—Test and Modeling
Procedures
§ 1037.501 General testing and modeling
provisions.
This subpart specifies how to perform
emission testing and emission modeling
required elsewhere in this part.
(a) You must demonstrate that you
meet emission standards using emission
modeling as described in §§ 1037.515
and 1037.520. This modeling depends
on several measured values as described
in this subpart F. You may rely on fuel
maps from the engine manufacturer as
described in 40 CFR 1036.535, or you
may instead use powertrain testing as
described in § 1037.550.
(b) Where exhaust emission testing is
required, use the equipment and
procedures in 40 CFR part 1065 and/or
part 1066, as applicable. Measure the
emissions of all the exhaust constituents
subject to emission standards as
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specified in 40 CFR part 1065 and/or
part 1066, as applicable. Use the
applicable duty cycles specified in
§ 1037.510.
(c) See 40 CFR 86.101 and 86.1813 for
measurement procedures that apply for
evaporative and refueling emissions.
(d) Use the applicable fuels specified
40 CFR part 1065 to perform valid tests.
(1) For service accumulation, use the
test fuel or any commercially available
fuel that is representative of the fuel that
in-use vehicles will use.
(2) For diesel-fueled vehicles, use the
appropriate diesel fuel specified for
emission testing. Unless we specify
otherwise, the appropriate diesel test
fuel is ultra low-sulfur diesel fuel.
(3) For gasoline-fueled vehicles, use
the gasoline specified for ‘‘General
Testing’’.
(e) You may use special or alternate
procedures as specified in 40 CFR
1065.10.
(f) This subpart is addressed to you as
a manufacturer, but it applies equally to
anyone who does testing for you, and to
us when we perform testing to
determine if your vehicles meet
emission standards.
(g) Apply this paragraph (g) whenever
we specify the use of standard trailers.
Unless otherwise specified, a tolerance
of ±2 inches applies for all nominal
trailer dimensions.
(1) The standard trailer for high-roof
tractors must meet the following
criteria:
(i) It is an unloaded two-axle dry van
box trailer 53.0 feet long, 102 inches
wide, and 162 inches high (measured
from the ground with the trailer level).
(ii) It has a king pin located with its
center 36±0.5 inches from the front of
the trailer and a minimized trailer gap
(no greater than 45 inches).
(iii) It has a simple orthogonal shape
with smooth surfaces and nominally
flush rivets. Except as specified in
paragraph (g)(1)(v) of this section, the
standard trailer does not include any
aerodynamic features such as side
fairings, rear fairings, or gap reducers. It
may have a scuff band no more than
0.13 inches thick.
(iv) It includes dual 22.5 inch wheels,
standard tandem axle, standard
mudflaps, and standard landing gear.
The centerline of the tandem axle
assembly must be 146±4 inches from the
rear of the trailer. The landing gear must
be installed in a conventional
configuration.
(v) For the Phase 2 standards, include
side skirts meeting the specifications of
this paragraph (g)(1)(v). The side skirts
must be mounted flush with the sides of
the trailer and may extend as far
forward as the centerline of the landing
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gear and as far rearward as the leading
edge of the front wheel, with a height of
36±2 inches. We may approve your
request to use a skirt with different
dimensions if these specified values are
impractical or inappropriate for your
test trailer, and you propose alternative
dimensions that provide an equivalent
or comparable degree of aerodynamic
drag for your test configuration.
(2) The standard trailer for mid-roof
tractors is an empty two-axle tanker
trailer 42±1 feet long by 140 inches
high.
(i) It has a 40±1 feet long cylindrical
tank with a 7000±7 gallon capacity,
smooth surface, and rounded ends.
(ii) The standard tanker trailer does
not include any aerodynamic features
such as side fairings, but does include
a centered 20 inch manhole, sidecentered ladder, and lengthwise
walkway. It includes dual 24.5 inch
wheels.
(3) The standard trailer for low-roof
tractors is an unloaded two-axle flat bed
trailer 53±1 feet long and 102 inches
wide.
(i) The deck height is 60.0±0.5 inches
in the front and 55.0±0.5 inches in the
rear. The standard trailer does not
include any aerodynamic features such
as side fairings.
(ii) It includes an air suspension and
dual 22.5 inch wheels on tandem axles
spread up to 122 inches apart between
axle centerlines, measured along the
length of the trailer.
(h) Use a standard tractor for
measuring aerodynamic drag of trailers.
Standard tractors must be certified at
Bin III or better for Phase 1 or Phase 2
under § 1037.520(b)(1) or (3). The
standard tractor for long trailers is a
Class 8 high-roof sleeper cab. The
standard tractor for short trailers is a
Class 8 high-roof day cab.
§ 1037.510
Duty-cycle exhaust testing.
This section applies for Phase 2
powertrain testing, certain off-cycle
testing under § 1037.610, and the Phase
1 advanced-technology provisions of
§ 1037.615.
(a) Measure emissions by testing the
vehicle on a chassis dynamometer or the
powertrain on a powertrain
dynamometer with the applicable duty
cycles. Each duty cycle consists of a
series of speed commands over time—
variable speeds for the transient test and
constant speeds for the cruise tests.
None of these cycles include vehicle
starting or warmup.
(1) Perform testing for Phase 1
vehicles as follows to generate credits or
adjustment factors for off-cycle or
advanced technologies:
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(i) Transient cycle. The transient cycle
is specified in Appendix I of this part.
Warm up the vehicle. Start the duty
cycle within 30 seconds after
concluding the warm-up procedure.
Start sampling emissions at the start of
the duty cycle.
(ii) Cruise cycle. For the 55 mph and
65 mph cruise cycles, warm up the
vehicle at the test speed, then sample
emissions for 300 seconds while
maintaining vehicle speed within ±1.0
mph of the speed setpoint; this speed
tolerance applies instead of the
approach specified in 40 CFR
1066.425(b)(1) and (2).
(2) If you rely on powertrain testing
under § 1037.550 for demonstrating
compliance with Phase 2 vehicle
standards, perform testing as described
in this paragraph (a)(2) to generate GEM
inputs for each of the eight or nine test
runs representing different vehicle
configurations, and for each of the four
test runs representing different idle
speed settings. You may perform any
number of these test runs directly in
succession once the vehicle is warmed
up. For these tests and other powertrain
tests, perform testing as follows:
(i) Transient cycle. The transient cycle
is specified in Appendix I of this part.
Warm up the vehicle by operating over
one transient cycle. Within 60 seconds
after concluding the warm up cycle,
start emission sampling while the
vehicle operates over the duty cycle.
(ii) Cruise cycle. The grade portion of
the route corresponding to the 55 mph
and 65 mph cruise cycles is specified in
Appendix IV of this part. Warm up the
vehicle by operating it at the
appropriate speed setpoint over the duty
cycle. Within 60 seconds after
concluding the warm-up cycle, start
emission sampling while the vehicle
operates over the duty cycle,
maintaining vehicle speed within ±1.0
mph of the speed setpoint; this speed
tolerance applies instead of the
approach specified in 40 CFR
1066.425(b)(1) and (2).
(iii) Idle cycle. Perform testing with
the idle cycle for Phase 2 vocational
vehicles. Warm up the vehicle by
operating it at 65 mph for 600 seconds.
Within 60 seconds after concluding the
warm-up cycle, set the engine to operate
at idle speed for 600 seconds, with the
brake applied and the transmission in
drive (or clutch depressed for manual
transmission).
(3) For other testing of Phase 2 and
later vehicles, perform testing on a
chassis dynamometer as follows:
(i) Transient cycle. The transient cycle
is specified in Appendix I of this part.
Warm up the vehicle by operating over
one transient cycle. Within 60 seconds
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after concluding the warm up cycle,
start emission sampling while the
vehicle operates over the duty cycle.
(ii) Cruise cycle. The grade portion of
the route corresponding to the 55 mph
and 65 mph cruise cycles is specified in
Appendix IV of this part. Warm up the
vehicle by operating it at the
appropriate speed setpoint over the duty
cycle. Within 60 seconds after
concluding the warm-up cycle, start
emission sampling while the vehicle
operates over the duty cycle,
maintaining vehicle speed within ±1.0
mph of the speed setpoint; this speed
tolerance applies instead of the
approach specified in 40 CFR
1066.425(b)(1) and (2).
(b) Calculate the official emission
result from the following equation:
Where:
eCO2comp = total composite mass of CO2
emissions in g/ton-mile, rounded to the
nearest whole number.
PL = the standard payload, in tons, as
specified in § 1037.705.
vmoving = mean composite weighted driven
vehicle speed, excluding idle operation,
as shown in Table 1 of this section for
Phase 2 vocational vehicles. For other
vehicles, let vmoving = 1.
w[cycle] = weighting factor for the appropriate
test cycle, as shown in Table 1 of this
section.
m[cycle] = CO2 mass emissions over each test
cycle (other than idle), in g/test.
D[cycle] = the total driving distance for the
indicated drive cycle. Use 2.84 miles for
the transient cycle, and use 12.5 miles
for both of the cruise cycles.
Ô = CO emission rate at idle, in g/hr.
midle
2
PL = 7.5 tons
¯
vmoving = 28.1 mph
wtransient = 50% = 0.50
w55 = 28% = 0.28
w65 = 22% = 0.22
widle = 10% = 0.10
mtransient = 6184.7 g
m55 = 5260.0 g
m65 = 7452.5 g
Dtransient = 2.84
D55 = 12.5
D65 = 12.5
Ô
midle= 11707 g/hr
(c) Apply weighting factors specific to
each type of vehicle and for each duty
cycle as follows:
(1) Apply weighting factors for
tractors as shown in Table 1 of this
section. Note that the weighting factors
specified here are equivalent to
weighting factors in GEM.
(2) Apply weighting factors for
vocational vehicles as shown in Table 1
of this section. For Phase 2 vocational
vehicles, select the most appropriate
duty cycle for modeling emission results
with each vehicle configuration. The
default is the Multi-Purpose Duty Cycle.
You may need to instead select the
Regional Duty Cycle or the Urban Duty
Cycle as follows:
(i) Except as specified in paragraph
(c)(2)(iii) of this section, use the
Regional Duty Cycle for each
configuration meeting any of the
following characteristics:
(A) The vehicle configuration as
modeled in GEM reaches a speed of 65
miles per hour at less than 75% of
maximum test speed for compressionignition engines, and at less than 45%
maximum test speed for spark-ignition
engines, when operating in the highest
available transmission gear. Maximum
test speed is the highest speed from the
engine’s fuel map.
(B) The vehicle is intended to be used
as an intercity bus.
(C) The vehicle is intended to be used
for temporary housing, such as for
camping.
(D) The engine was certified based on
testing only with the ramped-modal
cycle.
(ii) Except as specified in paragraph
(c)(2)(iii) of this section, use the Urban
Duty Cycle for each configuration
meeting any of the following
characteristics:
(A) The vehicle configuration as
modeled in GEM does not reach a speed
of 55 miles per hour before the engine
is at or above 90% of maximum test
speed for compression-ignition engines,
and at or above 50% maximum test
speed for spark-ignition engines, when
operating in the highest available
transmission gear.
(B) The vehicle has a hybrid
powertrain.
(iii) You may ask us to make a
different determination with respect to
the duty cycle than we specify in this
paragraph (c)(2) if you can demonstrate
that a different duty cycle is more
appropriate for a certain vehicle
configuration.
(3) Use the values for weighting
factors and average speed in the
following table to properly simulate the
appropriate duty cycle:
Example: Class 8 vocational vehicle
meeting the Phase 2 standards based on the
Regional duty cycle.
Transient
(percent)
Day Cabs .................................................
Sleeper Cabs ...........................................
Heavy-haul tractors ..................................
Vocational—Multi-Purpose .......................
Vocational—Regional ...............................
Vocational—Urban ...................................
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55 mph cruise
(percent)
65 mph cruise
(percent)
17
9
17
15
28
6
64
86
64
3
22
0
19
5
19
82
50
94
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Idle
(percent)
Non-idle
(percent)
Average
speed while
moving,
(mph)
........................
........................
........................
15
10
20
........................
........................
........................
85
90
80
........................
........................
........................
20.9
28.1
19.2
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TABLE 1 OF § 1037.510—WEIGHTING FACTORS FOR DUTY CYCLES
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TABLE 1 OF § 1037.510—WEIGHTING FACTORS FOR DUTY CYCLES—Continued
Distance-weighted
Transient
(percent)
Time-weighted
Idle
(percent)
Non-idle
(percent)
Average
speed while
moving,
(mph)
37
........................
........................
........................
16
........................
........................
........................
Where:
Ci = constant values for calculating CO2
emissions from this regression equation
derived from GEM, as shown in Table 1
of this section. Let C5 = 0.985 for trailers
21
75
(d) For transient testing, compare
actual second-by-second vehicle speed
with the speed specified in the test
cycle and ensure any differences are
consistent with the criteria as specified
in 40 CFR 1066.425. If the speeds do not
conform to these criteria, the test is not
valid and must be repeated.
(e) Run test cycles as specified in 40
CFR part 1066. For cruise cycle testing
of vehicles equipped with cruise
control, use the vehicle’s cruise control
to control the vehicle speed. For
vehicles equipped with adjustable
vehicle speed limiters, test the vehicle
65 mph cruise
(percent)
42
Vocational with conventional powertrain
(Phase 1 only) ......................................
Vocational Hybrid Vehicles (Phase 1
only) ......................................................
55 mph cruise
(percent)
9
with the vehicle speed limiter at its
highest setting.
(f) For Phase 1, test the vehicle using
its adjusted loaded vehicle weight,
unless we determine this would be
unrepresentative of in-use operation as
specified in 40 CFR 1065.10(c)(1).
(g) For hybrid vehicles, correct for the
net energy change of the energy storage
device as described in 40 CFR 1066.501.
This section describes a compliance
approach for trailers that is consistent
with the modeling for vocational
vehicles and tractors described in
§ 1037.520, but is simplified consistent
with the smaller number of trailer
parameters that affect CO2 emissions.
Note that the calculated CO2 emission
rate, eCO2, is equivalent to the value that
would result from running GEM with
the same input values.
(a) Compliance equation. Calculate
CO2 emissions for demonstrating
compliance with emission standards for
each trailer configuration using the
following equation:
that have automatic tire inflation systems
with all wheels; otherwise, let C5 = 1.
TRRL = tire rolling resistance level, in kg per
metric ton, as specified in paragraph (b)
of this section.
DCDA = the delta CDA value for the trailer,
in m2, as specified in paragraph (c) of
this section.
WR = weight reduction, in pounds, as
specified in paragraph (d) of this section.
§ 1037.515 Determining CO2 emissions to
show compliance for trailers.
TABLE 1 OF § 1037.515—REGRESSION COEFFICIENTS FOR CALCULATING CO2 EMISSIONS
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Long dry box ban .............................................................................................
Long refrigerated box van ...............................................................................
Short dry box van ............................................................................................
Short refrigerated box van ...............................................................................
(b) Tire rolling resistance. Use the
procedure specified in § 1037.520(c) to
determine the tire rolling resistance
level for your tires. Note that you may
base tire rolling resistance levels on
measurements performed by tire
manufacturers, as long as those
measurements meet this part’s
specifications.
(c) Drag area. You may use delta CDA
values approved under § 1037.211 for
device manufacturers if your trailers are
properly equipped with those devices.
Determine delta CDA values for other
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C2
77.4
78.3
134.0
136.3
trailers based on testing. Measure CDA
and determine delta CDA values as
described in § 1037.525(a). You may use
delta CDA values from one trailer
configuration to represent any number
of additional trailers based on worstcase testing. This means that you may
apply delta CDA values from your
measurements to any trailer models of
the same category with drag area at or
below that of the tested configuration.
For trailers in the ‘‘short trailer’’
subcategory that are not 28 feet long,
apply the delta CDA value established
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C3
1.7
1.8
2.2
2.4
¥6.1
¥6.0
¥10.5
¥10.3
C4
¥0.001
¥0.001
¥0.003
¥0.003
for a comparable 28-foot trailer model;
you may use the same devices designed
for 28-foot trailers or you may adapt
those devices as appropriate for the
different trailer length, consistent with
good engineering judgment. For
example, 48-foot trailers may use longer
side skirts than the skirts that were
tested with a 28-foot trailer. Trailer and
device manufacturers may seek
preliminary approval for these
adaptations. Determine bin levels based
on delta CDA test results as described in
the following table:
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TABLE 2 OF § 1037.515—BIN DETERMINATIONS FOR TRAILERS BASED ON AERODYNAMIC TEST RESULTS
[delta CDA in m2]
If a trailer’s measured delta CDA is . . .
≤ 0.09 ..........................................................................................
0.10–0.19 ....................................................................................
0.20–0.39 ....................................................................................
0.40–0.59 ....................................................................................
0.60–0.79 ....................................................................................
0.80–1.19 ....................................................................................
1.20–1.59 ....................................................................................
≥1.60 ...........................................................................................
Bin
Bin
Bin
Bin
Bin
Bin
Bin
Bin
and use the
following values for delta
CDA
designated the trailer as . . .
(d) Weight reduction. Determine
weight reduction for a trailer
configuration by summing all applicable
values, as follows:
I ............................................................................................
II ...........................................................................................
III ..........................................................................................
IV ..........................................................................................
V ...........................................................................................
VI ..........................................................................................
VII .........................................................................................
VIII ........................................................................................
(1) Determine weight reduction for
using lightweight materials for wheels
as described in § 1037.520(e).
0.0
0.1
0.3
0.5
0.7
1.0
1.4
1.8
(2) Apply weight reductions for other
components made with light-weight
materials as shown in the following
table:
TABLE 3 OF § 1037.515—WEIGHT REDUCTIONS FOR TRAILERS
[pounds]
Weight
reduction
(pounds)
Component
Material
Structure for Suspension Assembly 1 .........................................
Hub and Drum (per axle) ...........................................................
Floor ............................................................................................
Floor ............................................................................................
Floor Crossmembers ..................................................................
Landing Gear ..............................................................................
Rear Door ...................................................................................
Rear Door Surround ...................................................................
Roof Bows ..................................................................................
Side Posts ..................................................................................
Slider Box ...................................................................................
Upper Coupler Assembly ...........................................................
Aluminum ....................................................................................
Aluminum ....................................................................................
Aluminum ....................................................................................
Composite (wood and plastic) ....................................................
Aluminum ....................................................................................
Aluminum ....................................................................................
Aluminum ....................................................................................
Aluminum ....................................................................................
Aluminum ....................................................................................
Aluminum ....................................................................................
Aluminum ....................................................................................
Aluminum ....................................................................................
280
80
375
245
203
50
187
150
100
300
150
430
1 For tandem-axle suspension sub-frames made of aluminum, apply a weight reduction of 280 pounds. Use good engineering judgment to estimate a weight reduction for using aluminum sub-frames with other axle configurations.
ebenthall on DSK3VPTVN1PROD with MISCELLANEOUS
§ 1037.520 Modeling CO2 emissions to
show compliance for vocational vehicles
and tractors.
This section describes how to use the
Greenhouse gas Emissions Model (GEM)
simulation tool (incorporated by
reference in § 1037.810) to show
compliance with the CO2 standards of
§§ 1037.105 and 1037.106 for vocational
vehicles and tractors. Use GEM version
2.0.1 to demonstrate compliance with
Phase 1 standards; use GEM Phase 2
version 1.0 (‘‘GEM_P2v1.0’’) to
demonstrate compliance with Phase 2
standards. Use good engineering
judgment when demonstrating
compliance using GEM. See § 1037.515
for calculation procedures for
demonstrating compliance with trailer
standards.
(a) General modeling provisions. To
run GEM, enter all applicable inputs as
specified by the model.
(1) GEM inputs apply for Phase 1 and
Phase 2 standards as follows:
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(i) Regulatory subcategory (see
§ 1037.230).
(ii) Coefficient of aerodynamic drag or
drag area, as described in paragraph (b)
of this section (tractors only).
(iii) Steer tire rolling resistance, as
described in paragraph (c) of this
section.
(iv) Drive tire rolling resistance, as
described in paragraph (c) of this
section.
(v) Vehicle speed limit, as described
in paragraph (d) of this section (tractors
only).
(vi) Vehicle weight reduction, as
described in paragraph (e) of this
section (tractors only for Phase 1).
(vii) Credit for idle-reduction
strategies, as described in paragraph (f)
of this section (only for Class 8 sleeper
cabs and Phase 2 vocational vehicles).
(2) Additional GEM inputs apply for
Phase 2 standards as follows:
(i) Transmission make, model, and
type. Also identify the gear ratio for
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every available forward gear to two
decimal places.
(ii) Engine make, model, fuel type,
engine family name, calibration
identification. Also identify whether the
engine is subject to spark-ignition or
compression-ignition standards under
40 CFR part 1036.
(iii) Drive axle ratio, ka. If a vehicle is
designed with two or more userselectable axle ratios, use the drive axle
ratio that is expected to be engaged for
the greatest driving distance. If the
vehicle does not have a drive axle, such
as a hybrid vehicle with direct electric
drive, let ka = 1.
(iv) Various engine and vehicle
operational characteristics, as described
in paragraph (f) of this section.
(v) Engine fuel map, as described in
paragraph (g) of this section. Include
fuel consumption at idle for vocational
vehicles.
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(vi) Engine full-load torque curve and
motoring torque curve, as described in
paragraph (h) of this section.
(vii) Loaded tire radius for drive tires,
expressed to the nearest 0.01 m, as
described in paragraph (c) of this
section.
(viii) Vehicles with hybrid power
take-off, as described in paragraph (j) of
this section (vocational vehicles only).
(ix) Declared engine idle speed at
CITT. This is the engine’s idle speed
when the vehicle is in drive.
(3) You may certify your vehicles
based on powertrain testing as described
in § 1037.550, rather than fuel maps, to
characterize fuel consumption rates at
different speed and torque values as
follows:
(i) Compliance based on powertrain
testing is required for hybrid electric
vehicles and all vehicles with a
transmission that is not automatic,
automated manual, manual, or dualclutch. Compliance based on powertrain
testing is optional for all other vehicles.
(ii) GEM inputs associated with
powertrain testing include powertrain
family, transmission calibration, test
data from § 1037.550, and the
powertrain test configuration
(dynamometer connected to
transmission output or wheel hub). You
do not need to identify or provide
inputs for transmission gear ratios, fuel
map data, or engine torque curves,
which would otherwise be required
under paragraph (a)(2) of this section.
(iii) Fuel consumption at idle is still
required for vocational vehicles.
(4) If you certify emergency vehicles
to the alternative standards specified in
§ 1037.105(b)(4), run GEM by
identifying the vehicle as an emergency
vehicle and enter values for tire rolling
resistance as specified in paragraph (c)
of this section. GEM requires no
additional data entry for qualifying
emergency vehicles.
(5) You may use a default fuel map for
specialty vehicles using engines
certified to alternate standards under
§ 1037.605.
(b) Coefficient of aerodynamic drag
and drag area. Determine the
appropriate drag area, CDA, for tractors
as described in this paragraph (b). Use
the recommended method or an
alternate method to establish a value for
CDA, expressed in m2 to one decimal
place, as specified in § 1037.525. Where
we allow you to group multiple
configurations together, measure CDA of
the worst-case configuration.
(1) Except as specified in paragraph
(b)(2) of this section, determine the
Phase 1 bin level for your vehicle based
on measured CDA values as shown in
the following tables:
TABLE 1 OF § 1037.520—CD INPUTS FOR PHASE 1 HIGH-ROOF TRACTORS
Tractor type
Bin level
High-Roof Day Cabs ...........................................................................................................................
High-Roof Sleeper Cabs .....................................................................................................................
Bin
Bin
Bin
Bin
Bin
Bin
Bin
Bin
Bin
Bin
I .......
II ......
III .....
IV .....
V ......
I .......
II ......
III .....
IV .....
V ......
If your measured CDA (m2)
is . . .
≥ 8.0
7.1–7.9
6.2–7.0
5.6–6.1
≤ 5.5
≥ 7.6
6.8–7.5
6.3–6.7
5.6–6.2
≤5.5
Then your CD
input is . . .
0.79
0.72
0.63
0.56
0.51
0.75
0.68
0.60
0.52
0.47
TABLE 2 OF § 1037.520—CD INPUTS FOR PHASE 1 LOW-ROOF AND MID-ROOF TRACTORS
Tractor type
Bin level
Low-Roof Day and Sleeper Cabs .......................................................................................................
Mid-Roof Day and Sleeper Cabs ........................................................................................................
ebenthall on DSK3VPTVN1PROD with MISCELLANEOUS
(2) For Phase 1 low- and mid-roof
tractors, you may instead determine
your drag area bin based on the drag
area bin of an equivalent high-roof
tractor. If the high-roof tractor is in Bin
I or Bin II, then you may assume your
equivalent low- and mid-roof tractors
are in Bin I. If the high-roof tractor is in
Bin III, Bin IV, or Bin V, then you may
assume your equivalent low- and midroof tractors are in Bin II.
(3) For Phase 2 tractors other than
heavy-haul tractors, determine bin
levels and CDA inputs as follows:
Bin
Bin
Bin
Bin
I .......
II ......
I .......
II ......
If your measured CDA (m2)
is . . .
≥
≤
≥
≤
5.1
5.0
5.6
5.5
Then your CD
input is . . .
0.77
0.71
0.87
0.82
(i) Determine bin levels for high-roof
tractors based on aerodynamic test
results as described in the following
table:
TABLE 3 OF § 1037.520—BIN DETERMINATIONS FOR PHASE 2 HIGH-ROOF TRACTORS BASED ON AERODYNAMIC TEST
RESULTS
[CDA in m2]
Tractor type
Day Cabs .....................
Sleeper Cabs ...............
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Bin I
Bin II
≥7.5
≥7.3
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6.8–7.4
6.6–7.2
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Bin III
Bin IV
6.2–6.7
6.0–6.5
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Bin V
5.6–6.1
5.4–5.9
E:\FR\FM\13JYP2.SGM
5.1–5.5
4.9–5.3
13JYP2
Bin VI
4.7–5.0
4.5–4.8
Bin VII
≤4.6
≤4.4
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(ii) For low- and mid-roof tractors,
you may determine your bin level based
on aerodynamic test results as described
in Table 4 of this section, or based on
the bin level of an equivalent high-roof
tractor as shown in Table 5 of this
section.
TABLE 4 OF § 1037.520—BIN DETERMINATIONS FOR PHASE 2 LOW-ROOF AND MID-ROOF TRACTORS BASED ON
AERODYNAMIC TEST RESULTS
[CDA in m2]
Tractor type
Bin I
≥5.1
≥6.5
Low-Roof Cabs ................................................................................................
Mid-Roof Cabs .................................................................................................
TABLE 5 OF § 1037.520—
BIN DETERMINATIONS FOR
PHASE 2 LOW- AND MIDROOF TRACTORS BASED
ON
EQIVALENT HIGHROOF TRACTORS
Bin II
4.6–5.0
6.0–6.4
then the corresponding
low- and midroof tractors is
. . .
If your equivalent high-roof
tractor is . . .
Bin
Bin
Bin
Bin
Bin V ...............
Bin VI ..............
Bin VII .............
≤4.1
≤5.5
4.2–4.5
5.6–5.9
then the corresponding
low- and midroof tractors is
. . .
Bin
Bin
Bin
Bin
Bin IV
(iii) Determine the CDA input
according to the tractor’s bin level as
described in the following table:
TABLE 5 OF § 1037.520—
BIN DETERMINATIONS FOR
PHASE 2 LOW- AND MIDROOF TRACTORS BASED
ON
EQIVALENT HIGHROOF TRACTORS—Continued
If your equivalent high-roof
tractor is . . .
Bin III
Bin III.
Bin III.
Bin IV.
I ................
II ...............
III ..............
IV ..............
I.
I.
II.
II.
TABLE 6 OF § 1037.520—PHASE 2 CDA TRACTOR INPUTS BASED ON BIN LEVEL
Tractor type
ebenthall on DSK3VPTVN1PROD with MISCELLANEOUS
High-Roof Day Cabs ....
High-Roof Sleeper
Cabs .........................
Low-Roof Cabs ............
Mid-Roof Cabs .............
Bin I
Bin II
06:45 Jul 11, 2015
Bin IV
Bin V
Bin VI
Bin VII
7.6
7.1
6.5
5.8
5.3
4.9
4.5
7.4
5.3
6.7
6.9
4.8
6.2
6.3
4.3
5.7
5.6
4.0
5.4
5.1
........................
........................
4.7
........................
........................
4.3
........................
........................
(c) Tire radius and rolling resistance.
You must have a loaded radius and a
tire rolling resistance level (TRRL) for
each tire configuration. For purposes of
this section, you may consider tires with
the same SKU number to be the same
configuration. Determine TRRL input
values separately for drive and steer
tires; determine tire radius only for
drive tires.
(1) Determine a tire’s loaded radius as
specified in ISO 28580 (incorporated by
reference in § 1037.810).
(2) Measure tire rolling resistance in
kg per metric ton as specified in ISO
28580 (incorporated by reference in
§ 1037.810), except as specified in this
paragraph (c). Use good engineering
judgment to ensure that your test results
are not biased low. You may ask us to
identify a reference test laboratory to
which you may correlate your test
results. Prior to beginning the test
procedure in Section 7 of ISO 28580 for
a new bias-ply tire, perform a break-in
procedure by running the tire at the
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Jkt 235001
specified test speed, load, and pressure
for 60±2 minutes.
(3) For each tire design tested,
measure rolling resistance of at least
three different tires of that specific
design and size. Perform the test at least
once for each tire. Use the arithmetic
mean of these results as your test result.
You may use this value or any higher
value as your GEM input for TRRL. You
must test at least one tire size for each
tire model, and may use engineering
analysis to determine the rolling
resistance of other tire sizes of that
model. Note that for tire sizes that you
do not test, we will treat your
analytically derived rolling resistances
the same as test results, and we may
perform our own testing to verify your
values. We may require you to test a
small sub-sample of untested tire sizes
that we select.
(4) If you obtain your test results from
the tire manufacturer or another third
party, you must obtain a signed
statement from the party supplying
those test results to verify that tests were
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conducted according to the
requirements of this part. Such
statements are deemed to be
submissions to EPA.
(5) For tires marketed as light truck
tires and that have load ranges C, D, or
E, use as the GEM input TRRL
multiplied by 0.87.
(d) Vehicle speed limit. If the vehicles
will be equipped with a vehicle speed
limiter, input the maximum vehicle
speed to which the vehicle will be
limited (in miles per hour rounded to
the nearest 0.1 mile per hour) as
specified in § 1037.640. Otherwise leave
this field blank. Use good engineering
judgment to ensure the limiter is tamper
resistant. We may require you to obtain
preliminary approval for your designs.
(e) Vehicle weight reduction. Develop
a weight-reduction as a GEM input as
described in this paragraph (e). For
purposes of this paragraph (e), highstrength steel is steel with tensile
strength at or above 350 MPa.
(1) Vehicle weight reduction inputs
for wheels are specified relative to dual-
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wide tires with conventional steel
wheels. For purposes of this paragraph
(e)(1), an aluminum alloy qualifies as
light-weight if a dual-wide drive wheel
made from this material weighs at least
21 pounds less than a comparable
conventional steel wheel. The inputs are
listed in Table 7 of this section. For
example, a tractor or vocational vehicle
with aluminum steer wheels and eight
(4×2) dual-wide aluminum drive wheels
would have an input of 210 pounds
(2×21 + 8×21).
TABLE 7 OF § 1037.520—WHEEL-RELATED WEIGHT REDUCTIONS
Weight-Reduction Technology
Wide-Based Single Drive Tire or Wide-Based
Single Trailer Tire with . . .
Weight Reduction
(lb per tire or
wheel)
Steel Wheel .................................................................................................
Aluminum Wheel .........................................................................................
Light-Weight Aluminum Alloy Wheel ..........................................................
High-Strength Steel Wheel .........................................................................
139
147
8
Aluminum Wheel .........................................................................................
Light-Weight Aluminum Alloy Wheel ..........................................................
Steer Tire, Dual-wide Drive Tire, or Dual-wide
Trailer Tire with . . .
84
21
30
(2) Weight reduction inputs for tractor
components other than wheels are
specified in the following table:
TABLE 8 OF § 1037.520—NONWHEEL-RELATED WEIGHT REDUCTIONS FROM ALTERNATIVE MATERIALS FOR TRACTORS
[pounds]
ebenthall on DSK3VPTVN1PROD with MISCELLANEOUS
Weight reduction technologies
Aluminum
High-strength
steel
Thermoplastic
Door .................................................................................................................................
Roof .................................................................................................................................
Cab rear wall ...................................................................................................................
Cab floor ..........................................................................................................................
Hood Support Structure System ......................................................................................
Hood and Front Fender ...................................................................................................
Day Cab Roof Fairing ......................................................................................................
Sleeper Cab Roof Fairing ................................................................................................
Aerodynamic Side Extender ............................................................................................
Fairing Support Structure System ...................................................................................
Instrument Panel Support Structure ................................................................................
Brake Drums—Drive (4) ..................................................................................................
Brake Drums—Non Drive (2) ..........................................................................................
Frame Rails .....................................................................................................................
Crossmember—Cab ........................................................................................................
Crossmember—Suspension ............................................................................................
Crossmember—Non Suspension (3) ...............................................................................
Fifth Wheel .......................................................................................................................
Radiator Support ..............................................................................................................
Fuel Tank Support Structure ...........................................................................................
Steps ................................................................................................................................
Bumper ............................................................................................................................
Shackles ..........................................................................................................................
Front Axle ........................................................................................................................
Suspension Brackets, Hangers .......................................................................................
Transmission Case ..........................................................................................................
Clutch Housing ................................................................................................................
Fairing Support Structure System ...................................................................................
Drive Axle Hubs (per 4) ...................................................................................................
Non Drive Hubs (2) ..........................................................................................................
Driveshaft .........................................................................................................................
Transmission/Clutch Shift Levers ....................................................................................
20
60
49
56
15
............................
............................
75
............................
35
5
140
60
440
15
25
15
100
20
40
35
33
10
60
100
50
40
35
80
40
20
20
6
18
16
18
3
............................
............................
20
............................
6
1
11
8
87
5
6
5
25
6
12
6
10
3
15
30
12
10
6
20
5
5
4
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
65
18
40
10
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
(3) Weight-reduction inputs for
vocational-vehicle components other
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than wheels are specified in the
following table:
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Federal Register / Vol. 80, No. 133 / Monday, July 13, 2015 / Proposed Rules
TABLE 9 OF § 1037.520—NONWHEEL-RELATED WEIGHT REDUCTIONS FROM ALTERNATIVE MATERIALS FOR PHASE 2
VOCATIONAL VEHICLES
[pounds]
Vehicle type
Material
Axle Hubs—Non-Drive ....................................
Axle Hubs—Non-Drive ....................................
Axle—Non-Drive .............................................
Axle—Non-Drive .............................................
Brake Drums—Non-Drive ...............................
Brake Drums—Non-Drive ...............................
Axle Hubs—Drive ............................................
Axle Hubs—Drive ............................................
Brake Drums—Drive .......................................
Brake Drums—Drive .......................................
Clutch Housing ................................................
Clutch Housing ................................................
Suspension Brackets, Hangers ......................
Suspension Brackets, Hangers ......................
Transmission Case .........................................
Transmission Case .........................................
Aluminum .......................................................
High Strength Steel ........................................
Aluminum .......................................................
High Strength Steel ........................................
Aluminum .......................................................
High Strength Steel ........................................
Aluminum .......................................................
High Strength Steel ........................................
Aluminum .......................................................
High Strength Steel ........................................
Aluminum .......................................................
High Strength Steel ........................................
Aluminum .......................................................
High Strength Steel ........................................
Aluminum .......................................................
High Strength Steel ........................................
Crossmember—Cab .......................................
Crossmember—Cab .......................................
Crossmember—Non-Suspension ...................
Crossmember—Non-Suspension ...................
Crossmember—Suspension ...........................
Crossmember—Suspension ...........................
Driveshaft ........................................................
Driveshaft ........................................................
Frame Rails .....................................................
Frame Rails .....................................................
ebenthall on DSK3VPTVN1PROD with MISCELLANEOUS
Component
Aluminum .......................................................
High Strength Steel ........................................
Aluminum .......................................................
High Strength Steel ........................................
Aluminum .......................................................
High Strength Steel ........................................
Aluminum .......................................................
High Strength Steel ........................................
Aluminum .......................................................
High Strength Steel ........................................
(4) Apply vehicle weight inputs for
changing technology configurations as
follows:
(i) For Class 8 tractors or Class 8
vocational vehicles with a permanent
6×2 axle configuration, apply a weight
reduction input of 300 pounds.
(ii) For Class 8 tractors with 4×2 axle
configuration, apply a weight reduction
input of 400 pounds.
(iii) For tractors with installed engines
with displacement below 14.0 liters,
apply a weight reduction of 300 pounds.
(iv) GEM accounts for increased
vehicle weight for vehicles that use
natural gas. For vehicles that use a fuel
other than diesel fuel, gasoline, or
natural gas, use good engineering
judgment to determine an appropriate
weight adjustment relative to a
comparable vehicle fueled by gasoline
or diesel fuel. This may require a
negative value.
(5) You may ask to apply the off-cycle
technology provisions of § 1037.610 for
weight reductions not covered by this
paragraph (e).
(f) Additional vehicle characteristics.
GEM accounts for CO2 emission
reductions for certain technologies and
vehicle configurations as noted in this
paragraph (f) for Phase 2 vehicles.
Because these adjustments are made
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Jkt 235001
Class 2b–5
vocational
vehicle
internal to GEM, you need to identify
the features as GEM inputs rather than
separately applying these adjustments to
GEM results. These adjustments (as
applicable for GEM 3.0) are summarized
for informational purposes only.
(1) GEM applies a 2.5% emission
reduction for single drive axles with the
following Class 8 vehicles:
(i) Tractors in a 4×2 configuration.
(ii) Vocational vehicles and tractors
with a permanent 6×2 configuration.
The same emission reduction applies for
part-time 6×2 configurations, but only
for the cruise cycles specified in
§ 1037.510.
(2) GEM applies a 0.5% emission
reduction for vehicles that use a lowfriction drive axle lubricant, as follows:
(i) A lubricant qualifies if it meets the
specifications for BASF Emgard FE 2986
as described in ‘‘Emgard® FE 75W–90
Fuel Efficient Synthetic Gear Lubricant’’
(incorporated by reference in
§ 1037.810).
(ii) You may use A to B testing using
the procedures in § 1037.560 to show
that a lubricant performs at an
equivalent or superior level relative to a
lubricant specified in paragraph (f)(2)(i)
of this section. Testing must show
equivalent or superior performance at
every specified speed and torque value.
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Class 6–7
ocational
vehicle
40
5
60
15
60
8
40
10
70
5.5
34
9
67
20
45
11
10
2
15
5
15
4
12
5
120
24
Class 8
ocational
vehicle
40
5
60
15
60
8
80
20
140
11
40
10
100
30
50
12
14
4
18
6
20
5
40
10
300
40
15
5
21
7
25
6
50
12
440
87
(3) GEM applies a 2% emission
reduction for tractors if they have an
automatic transmission, an automated
manual transmission, or a dual-clutch
transmission. Similarly, GEM applies a
2.3% emission reduction for Class 8
vocational vehicles certified with the
Regional duty cycle if they have an
automated manual transmission or a
dual-clutch transmission.
(4) GEM applies a 2% emission
reduction for tractors with predictive
cruise control. This includes any cruise
control system that incorporates
satellite-based global-positioning data
for controlling operator demand.
(5) GEM applies a 0.5% emission
reduction for tractors with a highefficiency air conditioning compressor.
This includes mechanically powered
compressors meeting the specifications
described in 40 CFR 86.1868–12(h)(5),
and all electrically powered
compressors.
(6) GEM applies a 1% emission
reduction for tractors with electrically
powered pumps for steering and engine
cooling.
(7) GEM applies a 1% emission
reduction for tractors with automatic
tire inflation systems.
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ebenthall on DSK3VPTVN1PROD with MISCELLANEOUS
(8) GEM accounts for emission
reductions for reduced idle for the
following technologies:
(i) Stop-start technology for
vocational vehicles. Phase 2 vocational
vehicles qualify for reduced emissions
in GEM modeling if the engine shuts
down no more than 30 seconds after the
onset of any of the following conditions:
(A) The vehicle’s brake is depressed at
a zero-speed condition.
(B) A vehicle with automatic
transmission goes into ‘‘Park’’.
(ii) Neutral-idle technology for
vocational vehicles. A Phase 2
vocational vehicle with an automatic
transmission qualifies for reduced
emissions in GEM modeling if the
vehicle goes into neutral (or reduces
torque equivalent to being in neutral) at
a zero-speed condition.
(iii) Extended-idle reduction. If your
sleeper cab is equipped with idle
reduction technology meeting the
requirements of § 1037.660 that will
automatically shut off the main engine
after 300 seconds or less, GEM applies
a 5 percent emission reduction for Phase
2 vehicles. For Phase 1, enter 5.0 g/tonmile as the input (or a lesser value
specified in § 1037.660); otherwise leave
this field blank.
(g) Engine fuel mapping and fuel
consumption at idle. Use the fuel map
and fuel consumption at idle from the
engine manufacturer to characterize the
engine’s specific fuel consumption, or
create a new fuel map and determine
fuel consumption at idle as described in
40 CFR 1036.535.
(h) Engine full-load torque curve and
motoring torque curve. Use the full-load
torque curve and the motoring torque
map from the engine manufacturer or
create new maps as described in 40 CFR
1065.510(b) and (c)(2).
(i) Vehicles with hybrid power takeoff. Determine the delta PTO emission
result of your engine and hybrid power
take-off system as described in
§ 1037.540.
(2) Determine Falt-aero by performing
coastdown testing and applying your
alternate method on the same vehicle.
Unless we approve another vehicle, the
vehicle must be a Class 8, high-roof,
sleeper cab with a full aerodynamics
package, pulling a standard trailer.
Where you have more than one tractor
model meeting these criteria, use the
tractor model with the highest projected
sales. If you do not have such a tractor
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(j) Alternate fuels. For fuels other than
those identified in GEM, perform the
simulation by identifying the vehicle as
being diesel-fueled, but use a fuel map
based on the mass flow rates of the
alternate fuel.
This section describes a methodology
for determining aerodynamic drag area,
CDA for use in determining input values
for §§ 1037.515 and 1037.520.
(a) General provisions for trailers. A
trailer’s aerodynamic performance for
demonstrating compliance with
standards is based on a delta CDA value
relative to a baseline trailer. Determine
these delta CDA values by performing A
to B testing, as follows:
(1) The default method for measuring
CDA is a coastdown procedure as
specified in § 1037.527. If we approve it
in advance, you may instead use one of
the alternative methods specified in
§§ 1037.529 through 1037.533,
consistent with good engineering
judgment. If you request our approval to
determine drag area using an alternative
method, you must submit additional
information as described in paragraph
(c) of this section.
(2) Determine a baseline CDA value
for a standard tractor pulling a test
trailer representing a production
configuration; use a 53-foot test trailer to
represent long trailers and a 28-foot test
trailer to represent short trailers. Repeat
this testing with the same tractor and a
baseline trailer. For testing long trailers,
the baseline trailer is a trailer meeting
the specifications for a Phase 1 standard
trailer in § 1037.501(g)(1); for testing
refrigerated box vans, install an HVAC
unit on the baseline trailer that properly
represents a baseline configuration. For
testing short trailers, use a 28-foot
baseline trailer with a single axle that
meets the same specifications as the
Phase 1 standard trailer, except as
needed to accommodate the reduced
trailer length. Use good engineering
judgment to perform paired tests that
accurately demonstrate the reduction in
aerodynamic drag associated with the
improved design. Measure CDA in m2 to
two decimal places. Calculate delta CDA
by subtracting the drag area for the test
trailer from the drag area for the
baseline trailer.
(b) General provisions for tractors.
The GEM input for a tractor’s
aerodynamic performance is an absolute
CDA value that is measured or
calculated for a tractor in a test
configuration. Test high-roof tractors
with a standard box trailer. Note that the
standard box trailer for Phase 1 tractors
is different from that of later model
years. Test low-roof and mid-roof
tractors without a trailer; however, you
may test low-roof and mid-roof tractors
with a trailer to evaluate off-cycle
technologies. The default method for
determining CDA values is a coastdown
procedure as specified in § 1037.527. If
we approve it in advance, you may
instead use one of the alternative
methods specified in §§ 1037.529
through 1037.533, or some other
method, based on a correlation to
coastdown testing, consistent with good
engineering judgment. Submit
information describing how you
determined CDA values from coastdown
testing whether or not you use an
alternative method. If you request our
approval to determine drag area using
an alternative method, CDAalt, you must
submit additional information as
described in paragraph (c) of this
section and adjust the CDA values to be
equivalent to the corresponding values
from coastdown measurements as
follows:
(1) Unless good engineering judgment
requires otherwise, assume that
coastdown drag areas are proportional
to drag areas measured using alternative
methods. This means you may apply a
single constant adjustment factor,
Falt-aero, for a given alternate drag area
method using the following equation:
model, you may use your most
comparable tractor model with our prior
approval. In the case of alternate
methods other than those specified in
this subpart, good engineering judgment
may require you to determine your
adjustment factor based on results from
more than one vehicle.
(3) For Phase 2 testing, determine
separate values of Falt-aero for a high-roof
day cab and a high-roof sleeper cab
corresponding to each major tractor
model based on testing as described in
paragraph (b)(2) of this section. Perform
this testing on each major tractor model.
You may ask us to approve aggregating
separate product lines into a single
major tractor model if you show that the
product lines are different only in ways
that are unrelated to aerodynamic
characteristics. If you have more than
six major tractor models, you may limit
§ 1037.525
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equation if you use an alternative
method:
area divided by yaw-sweep drag area for
your vehicle is greater than 0.8065 for
±6° yaw angle or 0.8330 for wind-
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averaged drag (which represents the
ratios expected for a typical Class 8
high-roof sleeper cab):
E:\FR\FM\13JYP2.SGM
13JYP2
EP13JY15.045
(2) For Phase 1 testing, you may
correct your zero-yaw drag area as
follows if the ratio of the zero-yaw drag
EP13JY15.046
Falt-aero, use the following equation to
determine CDAwa:
(v) You may calculate CDAwa without
additional testing by adding 0.80 m2 to
CDAzero-coastdown or using the following
applicable to this method (e.g., source
location/address, background/history).
(d) Yaw sweep corrections.
Aerodynamic features can be more
effective at reducing wind-averaged drag
than is predicted by zero-yaw drag. The
following procedures describe how to
adjust a tractor’s CDA values to account
for wind-averaged drag:
(1) For Phase 2 testing, apply the
following method based on SAE J1252
(incorporated by reference in
§ 1037.810):
(i) Determine the zero-yaw drag area,
CDAzero-yaw, and the yaw-sweep drag area
for your vehicle using the same alternate
method. For the yaw sweep drag area,
measure the drag area, at a minimum, at
yaw angles of 0°, ±1°, ±3°, ±6°, and ±9°,
where 0° represents the direction of
travel. Alternatively, using good
engineering judgment with
demonstration of equivalency and our
prior approval, you may measure the
drag area using different or fewer yaw
angles than those specified above,
provided they satisfy the requirements
for SAE J1252, unless otherwise
demonstrated.
(ii) Calculate the wind-averaged
coefficient of drag according to SAE
J1252 based on a vehicle speed of 55
mph and a wind speed of 7 mph.
(iii) For the tractor used to determine
Falt-aero, determine your wind-averaged
drag area, CDAwa, using the following
equation:
EP13JY15.044
procedures produce data that are the
same as or better than coastdown testing
with respect to repeatability and
unbiased correlation. Note that the
correlation is not considered to be
biased if there a bias before correction,
but you remove the bias using Falt-aero.
Send your request for approval to the
Designated Compliance Officer. Keep
records of the information specified in
this paragraph (c). Unless we specify
otherwise, include this information with
your request. You must provide any
information we require to evaluate
whether you may apply the provisions
of this section, consistent with good
engineering judgment. Include
additional information related to your
alternative method as described in
§§ 1037.529 through 1037.533. If you
use a method other than those specified
in this subpart, include all the following
information, as applicable:
(1) Official name/title of the
procedure.
(2) Description of the procedure.
(3) Cited sources for any standardized
procedures that the method is based on.
(4) Description and rationale for any
modifications/deviations from the
standardized procedures.
(5) Data comparing the procedure to
the coastdown reference procedure.
(6) Additional information specified
for the alternative methods described in
§§ 1037.529 through 1037.533 as
(iv) For additional tractors using an
alternative method and predetermined
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your testing in a given year to a
maximum of six major tractor models
until you have performed testing for
your whole product line. For any
untested tractor models, apply the value
of Falt-aero from the tested tractor model
that best represents the aerodynamic
characteristics of the untested tractor
model, consistent with good engineering
judgment. Testing under this paragraph
(b)(3) continues to be valid for later
model years until you change the tractor
model in a way that causes the test
results to no longer represent
production vehicles. You must also
determine unique values of Falt-aero for
low-roof and mid-roof tractors if you
determine CDA values based on low or
mid-roof tractor testing as shown in
Table 4 of § 1037.520. For Phase 1
testing, if good engineering judgment
allows it, you may calculate a single,
constant value of Falt-aero for your whole
product line by dividing the coastdown
drag area, CDAcoast, by CDAalt.
(4) Calculate Falt-aero to at least three
decimal places. For example, if your
coastdown testing results in a drag area
of 6.430, but your wind tunnel method
results in a drag area of 6.200, Falt-aero
would be 1.037.
(c) Approval of alternative methods.
You must obtain preliminary approval
before using any method other than
coastdown testing to determine drag
coefficients. We will approve your
request if you show that your
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(iv) Calculate your corrected drag area
for determining the aerodynamic bin by
multiplying the measured zero-yaw drag
area by CFys as determined using
Equation 1037.525–5 or 1037.525–6, as
applicable. You may apply the
correction factor to drag areas measured
using other procedures. For example,
apply CFys to drag areas measured using
the coastdown method. If you use an
alternative method, apply an alternative
correction, Falt-aero, and calculate the
final drag area using the following
equation:
(v) You may ask us to apply CFys to
similar vehicles incorporating the same
design features.
standard tractor. Prepare tractors and
trailers for testing as follows:
(1) Install instrumentation for
peforming the specified measurements.
(2) After adding vehicle
instrumentation, verify that there is no
brake drag or other condition that
prevents the wheels from rotating freely.
Do not apply the parking brake at any
point between this inspection and the
end of the measurement procedure.
(3) Install tires mounted on steel rims
in a dual configuration (except for steer
tires). The tires must—
(i) Be SmartWay-Verified or have a
coefficient of rolling resistance at or
below 5.1 kg/metric ton.
(ii) Have accumulated at least 2,175
miles but have no less than 50 percent
of their original tread depth, as specified
for truck cabs in SAE J1263
(incorporated by reference in
§ 1037.810).
(iii) Not be retreads or have any
apparent signs of chunking or uneven
wear.
(iv) Be size 295/75R22.5 or 275/
80R22.5.
(v) Be inflated to the proper tire
pressure as specified in Sections 6.6 and
8.1 of SAE J2263.
(4) Perform an inspection or wheel
alignment for both the tractor and the
trailer to ensure that wheel position is
within the manufacturer’s
specifications.
(c) The test condition specifications
described in Sections 7.1 through 7.4 of
SAE J1263 apply, with the following
exceptions and additional provisions:
(1) We recommend that you not
perform coastdown testing if winds are
expected to exceed 6.0 mph.
(2) Road grade may exceed 0.5%;
however, the road grade for testing must
not be excessive, considering factors
such as coastdown effects and road
safety standards.
(3) If road grade is greater than 0.02%
over the length of the test surface, you
must determine road grade as a function
of distance along the length of the test
surface and incorporate this into the
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§ 1037.527 Coastdown procedures for
calculating drag area (CDA).
The coastdown procedures in this
section describe how to calculate drag
area, CDA, for Phase 2 tractors and
trailers, subject to the provisions of
§ 1037.525. Follow the provisions of
Sections 1 through 9 of SAE J2263
(incorporated by reference in
§ 1037.810), with the following
clarifications and exceptions:
(a) The terms and variables identified
in this section have the meaning given
in SAE J1263 (incorporated by reference
in § 1037.810) and J2263 unless
specified otherwise.
(b) To determine CDA values for a
tractor, perform coastdown testing with
a tractor-trailer combination using the
manufacturer’s tractor and a standard
trailer. To determine CDA values for a
trailer, perform coastdown testing with
a tractor-trailer combination using a
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calculate your yaw-sweep correction
factor, CFys, using Equation 1037.525–5
through model year 2017; otherwise use
the following equation:
EP13JY15.048
into Equation 1037.525–4 for the ±6°
yaw-averaged drag area. If you choose to
calculate the wind-averaged drag area
according to SAE J1252, you may
EP13JY15.047
(iii) You may instead calculate the
wind-averaged drag area according to
SAE J1252 (incorporated by reference in
§ 1037.810) and substitute this value
Federal Register / Vol. 80, No. 133 / Monday, July 13, 2015 / Proposed Rules
40635
vehicle’s centerline as it passes the
anemometer. Record the location of the
anemometer along the test track, to the
nearest 10 feet.
(3) Mount the anemometer at a height
that is within 6 inches of half the test
vehicle’s body height.
(4) The height of vegetation
surrounding the anemometer may not
exceed 10% of the anemometer’s
mounted height, within a radius equal
to the anemometer’s mounted height.
(f) Measure air speed and air direction
onboard the vehicle at a minimum
recording frequency of 10 Hz, in
conjunction with time-of-day data,
using an anemometer and suitable data
loggers that meet the requirements of
Sections 5.4 and 5.5 of SAE J2263.
Mount the anemometer 1 meter above
the top of the leading edge of the trailer.
Correct anemometer measurements
using the wind speed and wind
direction measurements described in
paragraph (e) of this section as follows:
(1) Calculate arithmetic mean values
for vehicle speed, air speed, wind
speed, and wind direction in 5-mph
vehicle speed increments for each
coastdown. Include data from vehicle
speeds between 60 and 25 mph if you
collect data from complete coastdown
runs. You may disregard data from an
increment at the start or end of the
coastdown run if it is less than 5
minutes.
(2) Calculate the theoretical air speed,
vair,th, for each 5-mph increment using
the following equation:
increasing counterclockwise. For
example, if the vehicle starts by traveling
eastbound, then θw = 270° means a wind
from the south.
θveh = the vehicle direction. Use θveh = 0° for
travel in the first direction, and use θveh
= 180° for travel in the opposite
direction.
(3) Perform a linear regression using
paired values of vair,th and measured air
speed, vair,mess, from all 5-mph
increments to determine the air-speed
correction coefficients, a0 and a1, based
on the following equation:
EP13JY15.052
while the vehicle coasts through a test
segment that includes speeds from 27
mph down to 13 mph. Perform two to
four high-speed coastdowns
consecutively in one direction followed
by the same number of low-speed
coastdowns in the same direction, then
perform that same number of
measurements in the opposite direction.
Repeat this process until you have
performed twelve valid high-speed
coastdowns and twelve valid low-speed
coastdowns in each direction. You may
not split runs as described in Section
9.3.1 of SAE J2263 except as allowed
under this paragraph (d)(2).
(e) Measure wind speed, wind
direction, air temperature, and air
pressure at a minimum recording
frequency of 1 Hz, in conjunction with
time-of-day data. Use at least one
stationary electro-mechanical
anemometer and suitable data loggers
meeting SAE J1263 specifications,
subject to the following additional
specifications for the anemometer
placed along the test surface:
(1) You must start a coastdown
measurement within 24 hours after
running zero-wind and zero-angle
calibrations.
(2) Place the anemometer at least 50
feet from the nearest tree and at least 25
feet from the nearest bush (or equivalent
features). Position the anemometer
adjacent to the test surface, near the
midpoint of the length of the track,
between 2.5 and 3.0 body widths from
the expected location of the test
Where:
w = the mean wind speed over each 5-mph
increment.
v = the mean vehicle speed over each 5-mph
increment.
θw = the mean wind direction over each 5mph increment. Let θw = 0 for air flow
in the first travel direction, with values
EP13JY15.051
(4) Correct each measured value of air
speed using the following equation:
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analysis. Use Section 11.5 of SAE J2263
to calculate the force due to grade.
(4) The road surface temperature must
be at or below 50 °C. Use good
engineering judgment to measure road
surface temperature.
(d) CDA calculations are based on
measured speed values while the
vehicles coasts down through a highspeed range from 70 down to 60 mph,
and through a low-speed range from 25
down to 15 mph. Disable any vehicle
speed limiters that prevent travel above
72 mph. If a vehicle cannot exceed 72
mph, adjust the high-speed range to
include the highest achievable speed
range as described in paragraph (g)(2) of
this section. Measure vehicle speed at a
minimum recording frequency of 10 Hz,
in conjunction with time-of-day data.
Determine vehicle speed using either of
the following methods:
(1) Complete coastdown runs. Operate
the vehicle at a top speed above 72 mph
and allow the vehicle to coast down to
13 mph or lower. Collect data for the
high-speed range over a test segment
that includes speeds from 72 down to 58
mph, and collect data for the low-speed
range over a test segment that includes
speeds from 27 down to 13 mph.
Perform a minimum of sixteen valid
coastdown runs, eight in each direction.
(2) Split coastdown runs. Collect data
during a high-speed coastdown while
the vehicle coasts through a test
segment that includes speeds from 72
mph down to 58 mph. Similarly, collect
data during a low-speed coastdown
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Federal Register / Vol. 80, No. 133 / Monday, July 13, 2015 / Proposed Rules
point of each speed range as the time
midpoint of the ±2.00 mph speed
interval.
(ii) Repeat the calculations described
in paragraph (g)(3)(i) of this section
corresponding to the endpoint speed (60
or 15 mph) to determine the time at
which the vehicle reaches the ending
speed, and the mean vehicle speed
representing the endpoint of each speed
range.
(iii) If you incorporate grade into your
calculations, use the average values for
the elevation and distance traveled over
each interval.
(4) Calculate the road-load force, F,
for each speed range using the following
equation:
Faxle = an estimate of rear-axle losses. Use 200
N for the high-speed range and 100 N for
the low-speed range.
ag = acceleration of Earth’s gravity, as
described in 40 CFR 1065.630.
(5) If you perform high-speed and
low-speed coastdowns as described in
paragraph (d)(2) of this section, average
the F values for each set of consecutive
low-speed runs. Use this value as Flo in
the calculations in this paragraph (g) to
apply to each of the high-speed runs in
a set of consecutive high-speed runs that
immediately precede a set of
consecutive low-speed runs. Otherwise,
determine the Flo and Fhi values in the
calculations in this paragraph (g) from
the same run.
(6) Calculate average air temperature
T and air pressure pact during each highspeed run.
(7) Calculate average air speed during
each speed range for each run, vair,hi and
vair,lo.
(8) Perform an iterative calculation to
determine aerodynamic and mechanical
forces as follows:
(i) Assume initially that aerodynamic
forces for the low-speed range are zero:
Faero,lo = 0.
(ii) Estimate high-speed aerodynamic
forces by subtracting mechanical forces
from the road-load force corresponding
to the high-speed coastdown, Fhi, as
follows:
(iii) Calculate a new value for Faero,lo
by adjusting the high-speed
aerodynamic forces to account for
speed, as follows:
(iv) Repeat the steps in paragraphs
(g)(8)(ii) and (iii) of this section until
Faero,hi changes less than 1.0%.
(9) Calculate drag area, CDA, in m2 for
each high-speed segment using the
following equation:
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EP13JY15.055
EP13JY15.056
range such that the high-speed range
spans 10 mph; adjust the testing and
calculation instructions in this
paragraph (g) as needed to account for
this alternate high-speed range.
(3) Calculate mean vehicle speed at
each speed endpoint (70, 60, 25, and 15
mph) as follows:
(i) Calculate the mean vehicle speed
(in m/s) to represent the starting point
of each speed range as the arithmetic
average of measured speeds throughout
the speed interval defined as 2.00 mph
above the nominal starting speed point
to 2.00 mph below the nominal starting
speed point, expressed to at least two
decimal places. Determine the
timestamp corresponding to the starting
Where:
Me = the vehicle’s effective mass, in kg,
expressed to at least one decimal place.
v = average vehicle speed, in m/s, at the start
or end of each speed range, as described
in paragraph (g)(3) of this section.
t = timestamp at which the vehicle reaches
the starting or ending speed, in seconds,
expressed to at least one decimal place.
M = the vehicle’s measured mass, in kg,
expressed to at least one decimal place.
h = average elevation at the start or end of
each speed range, in m, expressed to at
least two decimal places.
D = distance traveled on the road surface
from a fixed reference location along the
road to the start or end of each speed
range, in m, expressed to at least one
decimal place.
ebenthall on DSK3VPTVN1PROD with MISCELLANEOUS
(g) Determine drag area, CDA, using
the following procedure instead of what
is specified in Section 10 of SAE J1263:
(1) Calculate the vehicle’s effective
mass, Me, to account for rotational
inertia by adding 56.7 kg to the
measured vehicle mass, M, (in kg) for
each tire making road contact.
(2) Operate the vehicle and collect
data over the high-speed range and lowspeed range as specified in paragraph
(d)(1) or (d)(2) of this section. If a
vehicle cannot exceed a maximum
speed of 72 mph, establish an alternate
high-speed range by fixing the high end
of the high-speed range at 2 mph less
than the vehicle’s maximum speed, and
fixing the low end of the high-speed
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(10) Calculate an arithmetic mean
CDA value from all the high-speed
segments to determine the drag area for
the test.
(h) Include the following information
in your application for certification:
(1) The name, location, and
description of your test facilities,
including background/history,
equipment and capability, and track and
(2) For full-scale wind tunnel testing,
use good engineering judgment to select
a tractor and trailer that is a reasonable
representation of the tractor and trailer
used for eference coastdown testing. For
example, where your wind tunnel is not
long enough to test the tractor with a
standard 53 foot trailer, it may be
appropriate to use a shorter box trailer.
In such a case, the correlation
developed using the shorter trailer
would only be valid for testing with the
shorter trailer.
(3) For reduced-scale wind tunnel
testing, use a one-eighth or larger scale
model of a tractor and trailer that is
sufficient to simulate airflow through
the radiator inlet grill and across an
engine geometry that represents engines
commonly used in your test vehicle.
(b) Open-throat wind tunnels must
also meet the specifications of SAE
J2071 (incorporated by reference in
§ 1037.810).
(c) To determine CDA values for a
tractor, perform wind-tunnel testing
with a tractor-trailer combination using
the manufacturer’s tractor and a
standard trailer. To determine CDA
values for a trailer, perform wind-tunnel
testing with a tractor-trailer combination
using a standard tractor. The wind
tunnel tests performed under this
section must simulate a vehicle speed of
55 mph. For Phase 1 vehicles, conduct
the wind tunnel tests at a zero yaw
angle and, if so equipped, utilizing the
moving/rolling floor to simulate driving
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facility elevation, along with the grade
and size/length of the track.
(2) Test conditions for each test result,
including date and time, wind speed
and direction, ambient temperature and
humidity, vehicle speed, driving
distance, manufacturer name, test
vehicle/model type, model year,
applicable family, tire type and rolling
resistance, weight of tractor-trailer (as
tested), and driver identifier(s).
(3) Average CDA result and all the
individual run results (including voided
or invalid runs).
§ 1037.529 Wind-tunnel procedures for
calculating drag area (CDA).
the vehicle for comparison to the
coastdown procedure, which corrects to
a zero yaw angle for the oncoming wind.
For Phase 2 vehicles, conduct the wind
tunnel tests by measuring the drag area
according to § 1037.525(d)(1) and, if so
equipped, utilizing the moving/rolling
floor for comparison to the coastdown
procedure.
(d) In your request to use wind-tunnel
testing, describe how you meet all the
specifications that apply under this
section, using terminology consistent
with SAE J1594 (incorporated by
reference in § 1037.810). If you request
our approval to use wind-tunnel testing
even though you do not meet all the
specifications of this section, describe
how your method nevertheless qualifies
as an alternative method under
§ 1037.525(c) and include all the
following information:
(1) Identify the name and location of
the test facilities for your wind tunnel
method.
(2) Background and history of the
wind tunnel.
(3) The wind tunnel’s layout (with
diagram), type, and construction
(structural and material).
(4) The wind tunnel’s design details:
The type and material for corner turning
vanes, air settling specification, mesh
screen specification, air straightening
method, tunnel volume, surface area,
average duct area, and circuit length.
(5) Specifications related to the wind
tunnel’s flow quality: Temperature
control and uniformity, airflow quality,
minimum airflow velocity, flow
uniformity, angularity and stability,
static pressure variation, turbulence
intensity, airflow acceleration and
deceleration times, test duration flow
quality, and overall airflow quality
achievement.
(6) Test/working section information:
Test section type (e.g., open, closed,
adaptive wall) and shape (e.g., circular,
square, oval), length, contraction ratio,
maximum air velocity, maximum
dynamic pressure, nozzle width and
height, plenum dimensions and net
volume, maximum allowed model scale,
maximum model height above road,
strut movement rate (if applicable),
model support, primary boundary layer
slot, boundary layer elimination
method, and photos and diagrams of the
test section.
(7) Fan section description: Fan type,
diameter, power, maximum rotational
speed, maximum speed, support type,
mechanical drive, and sectional total
weight.
(8) Data acquisition and control
(where applicable): Acquisition type,
motor control, tunnel control, model
balance, model pressure measurement,
wheel drag balances, wing/body panel
balances, and model exhaust
simulation.
(9) Moving ground plane or rolling
road (if applicable): Construction and
material, yaw table and range, moving
ground length and width, belt type,
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(a) You may measure drag areas
consistent with published SAE
procedures as described in this section
using any wind tunnel recognized by
the Subsonic Aerodynamic Testing
Association, subject to the provisions of
§ 1037.525. If your wind tunnel does not
meet the specifications described in this
section, you may ask us to approve it as
an alternative method under
§ 1037.525(b). All wind tunnels must
meet the specifications described in
SAE J1252 (incorporated by reference in
§ 1037.810), with the following
exceptions and additional provisions:
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Where:
R = specific gas constant = 287.058 J/(kg·K).
T = mean air temperature in K, expressed to
at least one decimal place.
Pact = mean absolute air pressure in Pa,
expressed to at least one decimal place.
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maximum belt speed, belt suction
mechanism, platen instrumentation,
temperature control, and steering.
(10) Facility correction factors and
purpose.
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§ 1037.531 Using computational fluid
dynamics to calculate drag area (CDA).
This section describes how to use
commercially available computational
fluid dynamics (CFD) software to
determine CDA values, subject to the
provisions of § 1037.525.
(a) To determine CDA values for a
tractor, perform CFD modeling based on
a tractor-trailer combination using the
manufacturer’s tractor and a standard
trailer. To determine CDA values for a
trailer, perform CFD modeling based on
a tractor-trailer combination using a
standard tractor. Perform all CFD
modeling as follows:
(1) Except as described in paragraph
(a)(9) of this section, specify a blockage
ratio at or below 0.2 percent to simulate
open-road conditions.
(2) Specify yaw angles according to
§ 1037.525(d)(1) for Phase 2 vehicles;
assume zero yaw angle for Phase 1
vehicles.
(4) Model the tractor with an open
grill and representative back pressures
based on available data describing the
tractor’s pressure characteristics.
(5) Enable the turbulence model and
mesh deformation.
(6) Model tires and ground plane in
motion to simulate a vehicle moving
forward in the direction of travel.
(7) Apply the smallest cell size to
local regions on the tractor and trailer in
areas of high flow gradients and smallergeometry features (e.g., the A-pillar,
mirror, visor, grille and accessories,
trailer-leading edge, trailer-trailing edge,
rear bogey, tires, and tractor-trailer gap).
(8) Simulate a vehicle speed of 55
mph.
(b) Take the following steps for CFD
code with a Navier-Stokes formula
solver:
(1) Perform an unstructured, timeaccurate analysis using a mesh grid size
with a total volume element count of at
least 50 million cells of hexahedral and/
or polyhedral mesh cell shape, surface
elements representing the geometry
consisting of no less than 6 million
elements, and a near-wall cell size
corresponding to a y+ value of less than
300.
(2) Perform the analysis with a
turbulence model and mesh
deformation enabled (if applicable) with
boundary layer resolution of ±95
percent. Once the results reach this
resolution, demonstrate the convergence
by supplying multiple, successive
convergence values for the analysis. The
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turbulence model may use k-epsilon (ke), shear stress transport k-omega (SST
k-w), or other commercially accepted
methods.
(c) For Lattice-Boltzman based CFD
code, perform an unstructured, timeaccurate analysis using a mesh grid size
with total surface elements of at least 50
million cells using cubic volume
elements and triangular and/or
quadrilateral surface elements with a
near-wall cell size of no greater than 6
mm on local regions of the tractor and
trailer in areas of high flow gradients
and smaller geometry features, with cell
sizes in other areas of the mesh grid
starting at twelve millimeters and
increasing in size from this value as the
distance from the tractor and trailer
increases.
(d) You may ask us to allow you to
perform CFD analysis using parameters
and criteria other than those specified in
this section, consistent with good
engineering judgment. In your request,
you must demonstrate that you are
unable to perform modeling based on
the specified conditions (for example,
you may have insufficient computing
power, or the computations may require
inordinate time), or you must
demonstrate that different criteria (such
as a different mesh cell shape and size)
will yield better results. In your request,
you must also describe your
recommended alternative parameters
and criteria, and describe how this
approach will produce results that
adequately represent a vehicle’s in-use
performance. We may require that you
supply data demonstrating that your
selected parameters and criteria will
provide a sufficient level of detail to
yield an accurate analysis. If you request
an alternative approach because it will
yield better results, we may require that
you perform CFD analysis using both
your recommended criteria and
parameters and the criteria and
parameters specified in this section to
compare the resulting key aerodynamic
characteristics, such as pressure
profiles, drag build-up, and turbulent/
laminar flow at key points around the
tractor-trailer combination.
(e) Include the following information
in your request to determine CDA values
using CFD for tractors:
(1) The name of the software.
(2) The date and version number of
the software.
(3) The name of the company
producing the software and the
corresponding address, phone number,
and Web site.
(4) Identify whether the software uses
Navier-Stokes or Lattice-Boltzmann
equations.
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(5) Describe the input values you will
use to simulate the vehicle’s
aerodynamic performance for
comparing to coastdown results.
§ 1037.533 Constant-speed procedure for
calculating drag area (CDA).
This section describes how to use
constant-speed aerodynamic drag
testing to determine CDA values, subject
to the provisions of § 1037.525.
(a) Test track. Select a test track that
meets the specifications described in
§ 1037.527(c)(2).
(b) Ambient conditions. Ambient
conditions must remain within the
specifications described in § 1037.527(c)
throughout the preconditioning and
measurement procedure.
(c) Vehicle preparation. To determine
CDA values for a tractor, perform
coastdown testing with a tractor-trailer
combination using the manufacturer’s
tractor and a standard trailer. To
determine CDA values for a trailer,
perform coastdown testing with a
tractor-trailer combination using a
standard tractor. Prepare tractors and
trailers for testing as described in
§ 1037.527(b). Install measurement
instruments meeting the requirements of
40 CFR part 1065, subpart C, that have
been calibrated as described in 40 CFR
part 1065, subpart D, as follows:
(1) Install a torque meter to measure
torque at the vehicle’s driveshaft, or
measure torque from both sides of each
drive axle using a half-shaft torque
meter, a hub torque meter, or a rim
torque meter. Set up instruments to read
engine rpm for calculating rotational
speed at the point of the torque
measurements, or install instruments for
measuring the rotational speed of the
driveshaft, axles, or wheels directly.
(2) Install instrumentation to measure
vehicle speed at 10 Hz, with an
accuracy and resolution of 0.2 kph. Also
install instrumentation for reading
engine rpm from the engine’s onboard
computer.
(3) Mount an anemometer on the
trailer as described in § 1037.527(f). For
air speeds in the range of 65–130 kps
and yaw angles in the range of 0±7°, the
anemometer must have an accuracy that
is ±1.5% of measured air speed and is
±0.5° of measured yaw angle.
(4) Fill the vehicle’s fuel tanks to be
at maximum capacity at the start of the
measurement procedure.
(5) Measure total vehicle mass to the
nearest 20 kg, with a full fuel tank,
including the driver and any passengers
that will be in the vehicle during the
measurement procedure.
(d) Measurement procedure. The
measurement sequence consists of
vehicle preconditioning followed by
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40639
(i) Calculate arithmetic mean values
for air speed,vair, wind speed,θw = 0, and
wind direction,w, over each 10-second
increment for each test segment.
Disregard data from the final increment
of the test segment if it is less than 10
seconds.
(ii) Calculate the theoretical air
direction, qair,th, for each 10-second
increment using the following equation:
Where:
qveh = the vehicle direction, as described in
§ 1037.527(f)(2).
(iii) Perform a linear regression using
paired values of qair,th and measured air
direction, qair,meas, from each 10-second
increment for all 80 kph and 113 kph
test segments to determine the air-
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segment. The test is valid if the data
conform to all the following
specifications:
(1) Vehicle speed. The mean vehicle
speed for the test segment must be
within 2.0 kph of the speed setpoint. In
addition, for testing at 80 kph and 113
kph, all ten of the 1-second mean
vehicle speeds used to calculate a
corresponding 10-second mean vehicle
speed must be within ± 0.3 kph of that
10-second mean vehicle speed. Perform
the same data analysis for testing at 16
kph, but apply a validation threshold of
±0.15 kph.
(2) Drive torque. All ten of the 1second mean torque values used to
calculate a corresponding 10-second
mean torque value must be within ±10%
of that 10-second mean torque value.
(3) Torque drift. Torque meter drift
may not exceed ±1%. Determine torque
meter drift by repeating the procedure
described in paragraph (d)(1) of this
section after testing is complete, except
that driving the vehicle is necessary
only to get the vehicle up to 80 kph as
part of coasting to standstill.
(f) Calculations. Analyze measured
data for each time segment after timealigning all the data. Use the following
calculations to determine CDA:
(1) Onboard air speed. Correct
onboard anemometer measurements for
air speed using onboard measurements
and measured ambient conditions as
described in § 1037.527(f), except that
you must divide the test segment into
consecutive 10-second increments
rather than 5-mph increments. Disregard
data from the final increment of the test
segment if it is less than 10 seconds.
This analysis results in the following
equation for correcting air speed
measurements:
EP13JY15.058
meters and start taking measurements.
The test segment starts when you start
taking measurements for all parameters.
(4) During the test segment, continue
to operate the vehicle at the speed
setpoint, maintaining constant speed
and torque within the ranges specified
in paragraph (e) of this section. Drive
the vehicle straight with minimal
steering; do not change gears. Perform
measurements as follows during the test
segment:
(i) Measure the rotational speed of the
driveshaft, axle, or wheel where the
torque is measured, or calculate it from
engine rpm in conjunction with gear
and axle ratios, as applicable.
(ii) Measure vehicle speed in
conjunction with time-of-day data.
(iii) Measure ambient conditions, air
speed, and air direction as described in
§ 1037.527(e) and (f). Correct air speed
and air direction as described in
paragraphs (f)(1) and (2) of this section.
(5) You may divide a test segment into
multiple passes by suspending and
resuming measurements. Stabilize
vehicle speed before resuming
measurements for each pass as
described in paragraph (d)(3) of this
section. Analyze the data from multiple
passes by combining them into a single
sequence of measurements for each test
segment.
(6) Divide measured values into even
10-second increments. If the last
increment for each test segment is less
than 10 seconds, disregard measured
values from that increment for all
calculations under this section.
(e) Validation criteria. Analyze
measurements to confirm that the test is
valid. Analyze vehicle speed and drive
torque by calculating the mean speed
and torque values for each successive 1second increment, for each successive
10-second increment, and for each test
(2) Yaw angle. Correct the onboard
anemometer measurements for air
direction for each test segment as
follows:
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stabilization and measurement over five
consecutive constant-speed test
segments with three different speed
setpoints (16, 80, and 113 kph). Each
test segment is divided into smaller
increments for data analysis.
(1) Precondition the vehicle and zero
the torque meters as follows:
(i) If you are using rim torque meters,
zero the torque meters by lifting each
instrumented axle and recording torque
signals for at least 30 seconds, and then
drive the vehicle at 80 kph for at least
30 minutes.
(ii) If you are using any other kind of
torque meter, drive the vehicle at 80 kph
for at least 30 minutes, and then allow
the vehicle to coast down from full
speed to a complete standstill while the
clutch is disengaged or the transmission
is in neutral, without braking. Zero the
torque meters within 60 seconds after
the vehicle stops moving by recording
the torque signals for at least 30
seconds, and directly resume vehicle
preconditioning at 80 kph for at least 2
km.
(iii) You may calibrate instruments
during the preconditioning drive.
(2) Perform testing as described in
paragraph (d)(3) of this section over a
sequence of test segments at constant
vehicle speed as follows:
(i) 300±30 seconds in each direction
at 16 kph.
(ii) 450±30 seconds in each direction
at 80 kph.
(iii) 900±30 seconds in each direction
at 113 kph.
(iv) 450±30 seconds in each direction
at 80 kph.
(v) 300±30 seconds in each direction
at 16 kph.
(3) When the vehicle preconditioning
described in paragraph (d)(1) of this
section is complete, stabilize the vehicle
at the specified speed for at least 200
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direction correction coefficients, b0 and
b1, based on the following equation:
(3) Traction force. (i) Calculate a
traction force in N for each
measurement using the following
equation:
Where:
(ii) Calculate a mean traction force,
Ftrac, in N for each 10-second increment
by averaging all the calculated traction
forces in each 10-second increment.
(4) Determination of drag area.
Calculate a vehicle’s drag area as
follows:
(i) Use Equation 1037.533–5 to
calculate a single mean traction force for
the two 16-kph test segments, Ftrac16.
This value represents the mechanical
drag force acting on the vehicle.
(ii) Calculate the mean aerodynamic
force for each 10-second increment,
Faero, from the 80 kph and 113 kph test
segments by subtracting Ftrac16 from
Ftrac.
(iii) Average the corrected air speed
and corrected yaw angle over every 10second segment from the 80 kph and
113 kph test segments to determine vair
and qair.
(iv) Calculate CDA for each 10-second
increment from the 80 kph and 113 kph
test segments using the following
equation:
from the 80 kph and 113 kph test
segments have a corrected yaw angle,
qair, that is within the range of |qair|≤2°.
If so, this is considered a low-yaw test.
If not, this is considered a high-yaw test.
(vi) For low-yaw tests, calculate a
vehicle’s characteristic zero-yaw drag
area as the arithmetic mean of the drag
areas representing all the 10-second
increments for both 80 kph and 113 kph
test segments that had.
(vii) For high-yaw tests, calculate a
vehicle’s characteristic zero-yaw drag
area as follows:
(A) Plot all the CDA values from the
80 kph and 113 kph test segments
against the corresponding values for
corrected yaw angle for each 10-second
increment. Create a regression based on
a fourth-order polynomial regression
equation of the following form:
constant-speed procedure for
calculating drag area:
(1) The measurement data for
calculating CDA as described in this
section.
(2) A general description and pictures
of the vehicle tested.
(3) The vehicle’s maximum height
and width.
(4) The measured vehicle mass.
Ttotal = the sum of all corrected torques at a
point in time, in N·m.
vveh = vehicle speed in m/s (full precision).
neng = mean engine speed in rpm (full
precision).
kg = transmission gear ratio of the engaged
gear.
ka = drive axle ratio.
M = the measured vehicle mass, in kg
ag = acceleration of Earth’s gravity, as
described in 40 CFR 1065.630.
G = instantaneous road grade, in percent
(increase in elevation per 100 units
horizontal length).
Where:
CDAi = the mean drag area for each 10-second
increment, i.
Faero = mean aerodynamic force over a given
10-second increment.
V2air[speed] = mean aerodynamic force over a
given 10-second increment
R = specific gas constant = 287.058 J/(kg·K).
T = mean air temperature in K.
Pact = mean absolute air pressure in Pa.
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(B) Determine CDAzero-yaw as the yintercept from the regression equation.
(g) Documentation. Keep the
following records related to the
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(v) Determine whether at least 75
percent of the 10-second increments
EP13JY15.064
of air direction using the following
equation:
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(iv) For all 80 kph and 113 kph test
segments, correct each measured value
Federal Register / Vol. 80, No. 133 / Monday, July 13, 2015 / Proposed Rules
§ 1037.540 Special procedures for testing
vehicles with hybrid power take-off.
This section describes the procedure
for quantifying the reduction in
greenhouse gas emissions for vehicles as
a result of running power take-off (PTO)
devices with a hybrid energy delivery
system. The procedures are written to
test the PTO by ensuring that the engine
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Where:
prefi = the reference pressure at each point i
in the PTO cycle.
pi = the normalized pressure at each point i
in the PTO cycle (relative to pmax).
pmax = the mean maximum pressure
measured in paragraph (b)(2) of this
section.
pmin = the mean minimum pressure measured
in paragraph (b)(2) of this section.
(4) If the PTO system has two circuits,
repeat paragraph (b)(2) and (3) of this
section for the second PTO circuit.
(5) Install a system to control
pressures in the PTO system during the
cycle.
(6) Start the engine.
(7) Operate the vehicle over one or
both of the denormalized PTO duty
cycles in Appendix II of this part, as
applicable. Measure emissions during
operation over each duty cycle using the
provisions of 40 CFR part 1066.
(8) Measured pressures must meet the
cycle-validation specifications in the
following table for each test run over the
duty cycle:
produces all of the energy with no net
change in stored energy. The full test for
the hybrid vehicle is from a fully
charged renewable energy storage
system (RESS) to a depleted RESS and
then back to a fully charged RESS. The
procedures in paragraphs (a) though (e)
of this section may be used for Phase 1
testing of any hybrid PTO architecture
for which you are requesting a vehicle
certificate using either chassis testing or
powertrain testing. You must include all
hardware for the PTO system. You may
ask us to modify the provisions of this
section to allow testing hybrid vehicles
other than electric-battery hybrids,
consistent with good engineering
judgment. Phase 2 PTO greenhouse gas
emission reductions are quantified
using GEM and are described in
paragraph (f) of this section.
(a) Select two vehicles for testing as
follows:
(1) Select a vehicle with a hybrid
energy delivery system to represent the
vehicle family. If your vehicle family
includes more than one vehicle model,
use good engineering judgment to select
(3) Turn the vehicle and PTO system
TABLE 1 OF § 1037.540—STATISTICAL
off while the sampling system is being
CRITERIA FOR VALIDATING EACH
TEST RUN OVER THE DUTY prepared.
(4) Turn the vehicle and PTO system
CYCLE—Continued
Parameter a
Absolute value of
intercept, ⎢a0⎢.
Standard error of estimate, SEE.
Coefficient of determination, r2.
Pressure
≤2.0% of maximum
mapped pressure
≤10% of maximum
mapped pressure
≥ 0.970
a Determine values for specified parameters
as described in 40 CFR 1065.514(e) by comparing measured values to denormalized pressure values from the duty cycle in Appendix II
of this part.
(c) Measure PTO emissions from the
fully warmed-up hybrid vehicle as
follows:
(1) Perform the steps in paragraphs
(b)(1) through (5) of this section.
(2) Prepare the vehicle for testing by
operating it as needed to stabilize the
battery at a full state of charge. For
TABLE 1 OF § 1037.540—STATISTICAL electric hybrid vehicles, we recommend
CRITERIA FOR VALIDATING EACH running back-to-back PTO tests until
engine operation is initiated to charge
TEST RUN OVER THE DUTY CYCLE
the battery. The battery should be fully
charged once engine operation stops.
Parameter a
Pressure
The ignition should remain in the ‘‘on’’
position.
Slope, a1 ................... 0.950 ≤a1 ≤ 1.030
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the vehicle type with the maximum
number of PTO circuits that has the
smallest potential reduction in
greenhouse gas emissions.
(2) Select an equivalent conventional
vehicle as specified in § 1037.615.
(b) Measure PTO emissions from the
fully warmed-up conventional vehicle
as follows:
(1) Without adding a restriction,
instrument the vehicle with pressure
transducers at the outlet of the
hydraulic pump for each circuit.
Perform pressure measurements with a
frequency of at least 1 Hz.
(2) Operate the PTO system with no
load for at least 15 seconds. Measure
gauge pressure and record the average
value over the last 10 seconds (Pmin).
Apply maximum operator demand to
the PTO system until the pressure relief
valve opens and pressure stabilizes;
measure gauge pressure and record the
average value over the last 10 seconds
(Pmax).
(3) Denormalize the PTO duty cycle in
Appendix II of this part using the
following equation:
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on such that the PTO system is
functional, whether it draws power from
the engine or a battery.
(5) Operate the vehicle over one or
both of the denormalized PTO duty
cycles without turning the vehicle off,
until the engine starts and then shuts
down. The test cycle is completed once
the engine shuts down. Measure
emissions as described in paragraph
(b)(7) of this section. Use good
engineering judgment to minimize the
variability in testing between the two
types of vehicles.
(6) Apply cycle-validation criteria as
described in paragraph (b)(8) of this
section.
(d) Calculate the equivalent distance
driven based on operating time for the
PTO portion of the test by determining
the time of the test and applying the
conversion factor in paragraph (d)(4) of
this section. For testing where fractions
of a cycle were run (for example, where
three cycles are completed and the
halfway point of a fourth PTO cycle is
reached before the engine starts and
shuts down again), calculate the time of
the test, ttest, as follows:
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(5) Mileage at the start of the first test
segment and at the end of the last test
segment.
(6) The date of the test, the starting
time for the first test segment, and the
ending time for the last test segment.
(7) The transmission gear used for
each test segment.
(8) The data describing how the test
was valid relative to the specifications
and criteria described in paragraphs (b)
and (e) of this section.
(9) A description of any unusual
events, such as a vehicle passing the test
vehicle, or any technical or human
errors that may have affected the CDA
determination without invalidating the
test.
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(2) For fractions of a test, use the
following equation to calculate the time:
(e) For Phase 1, calculate combined
cycle-weighted emissions of the four
duty cycles for vocational vehicles, for
both the conventional and hybrid PTO
vehicle tests, as follows:
(1) Calculate the CO2 emission rates in
grams per test without rounding.
(2) Divide the CO2 mass from the PTO
cycle by the distance determined in
paragraph (d)(4) of this section and the
standard payload to get the CO2
emission rate in g/ton-mile.
(3) Calculate the g/ton-mile emission
rate for the driving portion of the test
specified in § 1037.510 and add this to
the CO2 g/ton-mile emission rate for the
PTO portion of the test.
(4) Follow the provisions of
§ 1037.615 to calculate improvement
factors and benefits for advanced
technologies.
(f) For Phase 2, calculate the delta
PTO fuel results for input into GEM
during vehicle certification as follows:
(1) Calculate fuel consumption in
grams per test, mfuelPTO, without
rounding, as described in
§ 1037.550(k)(1).
(2) Divide the fuel mass by the
distance determined in paragraph (d)(4)
of this section and the standard payload
to determine the fuel rate in g/ton-mile.
(3) Calculate the difference between
the conventional PTO emissions result
and the hybrid PTO emissions result for
input into GEM.
(g) If the PTO system has more than
two circuits, apply to provisions of this
section using good engineering
judgment.
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(3) Sum the time from the complete
cycles and from the partial cycle.
§ 1037.550
Powertrain testing.
This section describes the procedure
for simulating a chassis test for both
conventional and hybrid powertrains.
This testing is an optional approach that
replaces the fuel map in GEM for
certifying Phase 2 vehicles. It applies for
vehicle manufacturers, but engine
manufacturers may perform testing
under this section as specified in 40
CFR 1036.630 and § 1037.551. While
this section includes the detailed
equations, you need to develop your
own driver model and vehicle model;
we recommend that you use the
MATLAB/Simulink code provided at
www.epa.gov/otaq/climate/gem.htm.
(a) Perform the powertrain test to
establish measured fuel-consumption
rates at a range of engine speed and load
settings. Also measure NOX emissions
during each of the specified sampling
periods consistent with the data
requirements 40 CFR part 86, subpart T.
You may use emission-measurement
systems meeting the specifications of 40
CFR part 1065, subpart J, to measure
NOx emissions. This section uses
engine parameters and variables that are
consistent with 40 CFR part 1065. For
molar mass values, see 40 CFR
1065.1005(f)(2).
(b) Select fuel-consumption rates (g/
cycle) to characterize the powertrain
emissions at each setting. These
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(4) Divide the total PTO operating
time from paragraph (d)(3) of this
section by a conversion factor of 0.0144
hr/mi to determine the equivalent
distance driven. This is based on an
assumed fraction of engine operating
time during which the PTO is operating
of 28 percent, and an assumed average
vehicle speed while driving of 27.1
mph, as follows:
declared values may not be lower than
any corresponding measured values
determined in this section. You may
select any value that is at or above the
corresponding measured value. These
declared fuel-consumption rates serve
as worst-case values for certification.
(c) Select a test engine and powertrain
as described in § 1037.235.
(d) Set up the engine according to 40
CFR 1065.110. The default test
configuration involves connecting the
powertrain’s transmission output shaft
directly to the dynamometer. You may
instead set up the dynamometer to
connect at the wheel hubs if your
powertrain configuration requires it,
such as for hybrid powertrains, or if you
want to represent the axle performance
with powertrain test results. If you
connect at the wheel hubs, input your
test results into GEM to reflect this.
(e) Cool the powertrain during testing
so temperatures for intake-air, oil,
coolant, block, head, transmission,
battery, and power electronics are
within their expected ranges for normal
operation. You may use auxiliary
coolers and fans.
(f) Set the dynamometer to operate in
speed control. Record data as described
in 40 CFR 1065.202. Design a vehicle
model to measure torque and calculate
the dynamometer speed setpoint at a
rate of at least 100 Hz, as follows:
(1) Calculate the dynamometer’s
angular speed target, fnref,dyno, based on
the simulated linear speed of the tires:
E:\FR\FM\13JYP2.SGM
13JYP2
EP13JY15.067
Pcircuit-1 = the mean normalized pressure
command from circuit 1 over the entire
PTO cycle.
Pcircuit-2 = the mean normalized pressure
command from circuit 2 over the entire
PTO cycle. Let Pcircuit-2 = 0 if there is only
one circuit.
Dt = the time interval between measurements.
For example, at 100 Hz, Dt = 0.0100
seconds.
EP13JY15.066
Where:
i = an indexing variable that represents one
recorded value.
N = number of measurement intervals.
pcircuit-1 = normalized pressure command
from circuit 1 of the PTO cycle for each
point, i, starting from i = 1.
pcircuit-2 = normalized pressure command
from circuit 2 of the PTO cycle for each
point, i, starting from i = 1. Let pcircuit-2
= 0 if there is only one circuit.
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(1) Add up the time run for all
complete tests.
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40643
Where:
v65 = reference speed. Use 65 mph = 29.05
m/s.
fn[speed] = engine’s angular speed
determined in paragraph (h) of this section.
Where:
vrefi = simulated vehicle reference speed. Use
the unrounded result for calculating
fnrefi,dyno.
i = a time-based counter corresponding to
each measurement during the sampling
period. Let vref1 = 0; start calculations at
i = 2. A 10-minute sampling period will
generally involve 60,000 measurements.
T = instantaneous measured torque.
Effaxle = axle efficiency. Use Effaxle = 0.955 for
T > 0, and use Effaxle = 1/0.955 for T <
0. To calculate fnrefi,dyno for a
dynamometer connected at the wheel
hubs, as described in paragraph (f)(2) of
this section, use Effaxle = 1.0.
M = vehicle mass for a vehicle class as
determined in paragraph (h) of this
section.
g = gravitational constant = 9.81 m/s2.
Crr = coefficient of rolling resistance for a
vehicle class as determined in paragraph
(h) of this section.
Gi-1 = the percent grade interpolated at
distance, Di-1 from the duty cycle in
Appendix IV corresponding to
measurement (i-1).
r = air density at reference conditions. Use
r = 1.17 kg/m3.
CDA = drag area for a vehicle class as
determined in paragraph (h) of this
section.
Fbrake = instantaneous braking force applied
by the driver model.
Dt = the time interval between measurements.
For example, at 100 Hz, Dt = 0.0100
seconds.
Mrotating = inertial mass of rotating
components as determined in paragraph
(h) of this section.
Example: Example is for Class 2b to 7
vocational vehicles with 6 speed automatic
transmission at B speed (Test 4 in Table 1 of
§ 1037.550).
ka = 4.0
ktopgear = 0.6716
fnrefB = 1870 rpm = 31.16 r/s
v65 = 65 mph = 29.05 m/s
T1000–1 = 500.0 N·m
Crr = 6.9 kg/ton = 6.9·10 minus;3 kg/kg
M = 11408 kg
CDA = 5.4 m2
G1000–1 = 1.0% = 0.018
Fbrake10001 = 0 N
Vref10001 = 20.0 m/s
Fgrade10001 = 11408·9.81·sin (atan (0.018))
= 2014. N
r Dt = 0.0100 s
Mrotating = 454 kg
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ka = drive axle ratio. Set ka = 4.0 for all
calculations in this paragraph (f).
ktopgear = transmission gear ratio in the
highest available gear.
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(2) For testing with the dynamometer
connected at the wheel hubs, calculate
fnref,dyno using the following equation:
(g) Design a driver model to mimic a
human driver modulating the throttle
and brake pedals to follow the test cycle
as closely as possible. The driver model
must meet the speed requirements for
operation over the cruise cycles as
described in § 1037.510 and for
operation over the transient cycle as
described in 40 CFR 1066.425(b). Design
the driver model to meet the following
specifications:
(1) Send a brake signal when throttle
position is zero and vehicle speed is
greater than the reference vehicle speed
from the test cycle. Include a delay
before changing the brake signal to
prevent dithering, consistent with good
engineering judgment.
(2) Allow braking only if throttle
position is zero.
(3) Compensate for the distance
driven over the duty cycle over the
course of the test. Use the following
equation to perform the compensation
in real time to determine your time in
the cycle:
Where:
vvehicle = measured vehicle speed.
vcycle = reference speed from the test cycle. If
vcycle,i-1 < 1.0 m/s, set vcycle,i-1 = vvehicle,i-1.
(1) For Class 2b through Class 7
vocational vehicles, test the powertrain
over eight different test runs. For all test
runs, set Mrotating to 454 kg, CDA to 5.4,
ka to 4.0, and Effaxle to 0.955. Set the tire
radius, r, for each test run based on the
vehicle configuration corresponding to
the designated engine speed (A, B, C, or
fntest, all from 40 CFR part 1065) at 65
mph. These engine speeds apply equally
for spark-ignition engines. Use the
following settings specific to each test
run:
(h) Set up the driver model and the
vehicle model in the test cell to test the
powertrain, as follows:
TABLE 1 OF § 1037.550—VEHICLE SETTINGS FOR POWERTRAIN TESTING OF CLASS 2b THROUGH CLASS 7 VOCATIONAL
VEHICLES
11,408
6.9
A
(2) For tractors and Class 8 vocational
vehicles, test the powertrain over nine
different test runs. For all test runs, set
Crr to 6.9, ka to 4.0, and Effaxle to 0.955.
Set the tire radius, r, for each test run
based on the vehicle configuration
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7,257
6.7
B
Test 4
11,408
6.9
B
Test 5
Test 6
7,257
6.7
C
11,408
6.9
C
corresponding to the designated engine
speed (the minimum NTE exclusion
speed as determined in 40 CFR
86.1370(b)(1), B, or fntest from 40 CFR
part 1065) at 65 mph. Use the settings
specific to each test run from Table 2 of
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Test 7
Test 8
7,257 .........................
6.7 .............................
Maximum test speed
11,408.
6.9.
Maximum test speed.
this section for general purpose
vehicles, and from Table 3 of this
section for heavy-haul tractors. Tables 2
and 3 follow:
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13JYP2
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7,257
6.7
A
Test 3
EP13JY15.075
M (kg) ........................
Crr (kg/metric ton) .....
r at engine speed ......
Test 2
EP13JY15.074
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Test 1
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TABLE 2 OF § 1037.550—VEHICLE SETTINGS FOR POWERTRAIN TESTING OF TRACTORS AND CLASS 8 VOCATIONAL
VEHICLES—GENERAL PURPOSE VEHICLES
Test 1
M (kg) .........
CDA ............
Mrotating (kg)
r at engine
speed.
Test 2
Test 3
Test 4
Test 5
Test 6
Test 7
Test 8
31,978 .......
5.4 .............
1,134 .........
Minimum
NTE exclusion
speed.
22,679 .......
4.7 .............
907 ............
Minimum
NTE exclusion
speed.
19,051 .......
4.0 .............
680 ............
Minimum
NTE exclusion
speed.
31,978 .......
5.4 .............
1,134 .........
B ................
22,679 .......
4.7 .............
907 ............
B ................
19,051 .......
4.0 .............
680 ............
B ................
31,978 .......
5.4 .............
1,134 .........
Maximum
test
speed.
22,679 .......
4.7 .............
907 ............
Maximum
test
speed.
Test 9
19,051.
4.0.
680.
Maximum
test
speed.
TABLE 3 OF § 1037.550—VEHICLE SETTINGS FOR POWERTRAIN TESTING OF HEAVY-HAUL TRACTORS
Test 1
Test 3
Test 4
Test 5
Test 6
Test 7
Test 8
Test 9
40,895 ......
6.1 ...........
1,134 .......
Minimum
NTE exclusion
speed.
31,978 ......
5.4 ...........
907 ...........
Minimum
NTE exclusion
speed.
22,679 ......
4.7 ...........
680 ..........
Minimum
NTE exclusion
speed.
40,895 .....
6.1 ...........
1,134 ........
B ..............
31,978 ......
5.4 ...........
907 ..........
B ..............
22,679 ......
4.7 ...........
680 ...........
B ..............
40,895 ......
6.1 ...........
1,134 .......
Maximum
test
speed.
31,978 ......
5.4 ...........
907 ...........
Maximum
test
speed.
22,679.
4.7.
680.
Maximum
test
speed.
TABLE 4 OF § 1037.550—STATISTICAL
CRITERIA FOR VALIDATING DUTY CYCLES
Parameter a
Slope, a1 ...................
Absolute value of
intercept, ⎢a0 ⎢.
Standard error of estimate, SEE.
Coefficient of determination, r 2.
Speed control
0.990 ≤ a1 ≤ 1.010.
≤2.0% of maximum
test speed.
≤2.0% of maximum
test speed.
≥ 0.990.
a Determine values for specified parameters
as described in 40 CFR 1065.514(e) by comparing measured and reference values for
ƒnref,dyno.
Where:
N = total number of measurements over the
duty cycle. For batch fuel mass
measurements, set N = 1.
i = an indexing variable that represents one
recorded value.
˙
mfueli = the fuel mass flow rate, for each point,
i, starting from i = 1.
Dt = 1/ƒrecord
ƒrecord = the data recording frequency.
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(l) [Reserved]
(m) Calculate mass of fuel consumed
for all duty cycles except idle as
follows:
(1) For measurements involving
measured fuel mass flow rate, calculate
the mass of fuel for each duty cycle,
mfuel[cycle], as follows:
Example:
N = 6680
˙
mfuel1 = 1.856 g/s
˙
mfuel2 = 1.962 g/s
ƒrecord = 10 Hz
Dt = 1/10 = 0.1 s
˙
mfueltransient = (1.856 + 1.962 + ... + mfuel6680)
· 0.1
mfueltransient = 111.95 g
Where:
N[event] = total number of measurements over
the duty cycle.
i = an indexing variable that represents one
recorded emission value.
wCmeas = carbon mass fraction of fuel as
determined by 40 CFR 1065.655(d),
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(2) For tests using emission
measurements (CO2, CO, and THC)
rather than measured fuel mass flow
rate, calculate the mass of fuel for each
duty cycle, mfuel[cycle], as follows:
(i) For calculations that use
continuous measurement of emissions,
calculate mfuel[cycle] using the following
equation:
E:\FR\FM\13JYP2.SGM
except that you may not use the default
properties in Table 1 of 40 CFR 1065.655
to determine a, b, and wC for liquid
fuels.
13JYP2
EP13JY15.078
(i) Operate the powertrain over each
of the duty cycles specified in
§ 1037.510(a)(2).
(j) Collect and measure emissions as
described in 40 CFR part 1065. For
hybrid powertrains, correct for the net
energy change of the energy storage
device as described in 40 CFR 1066.501.
(k) For each test point, validate the
measured output speed with the
corresponding reference values. You
may delete points when the vehicle is
stopped. Apply cycle-validation criteria
for each separate transient or cruise
cycle based on the following
parameters:
EP13JY15.077
M (kg) .........................
CDA ............................
Mrotating (kg) ................
r at engine speed .......
Test 2
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˙
nexh = exhaust molar flow rate from which
you measured emissions.
cCcombdry = amount of carbon from fuel in the
exhaust per mole of dry exhaust.
cH2Oexhdry = amount of H2O in exhaust per
mole of exhaust.
j = an indexing variable that represents one
recorded mass emission rate of CO2 from
urea value.
˙
mCO2ureaj = mass emission rate of CO2 from
the contribution of urea decomposition
over the duty cycle as determined from
mCO2transient = 1619.6 g
40 CFR 1036.535(a)(8). If your engine
does not utilize urea SCR for emission
control, or if you choose not to perform
this correction, set this value equal to 0.
Example:
MC = 12.0107 g/mol
wCmeas = 0.867
Nemission = 6680
NCO2urea = 668
˙
nexh1 = 2.876 mol/s
˙
nexh2= 2.224 mol/s
cCcombdry1 = 2.61·10¥3 mol/mol
cCcombdry2 = 1.91·10¥3 mol/mol
cH2Oexh1 = 3.53·10¥2 mol/mol
cH2Oexh2= 3.13·10¥2 mol/mol
ƒrecord-emission = 10 Hz
Dtemission = 1/10 = 0.1 s
MCO2 = 44.0095 g/mol
ƒrecord-CO2urea = 1 Hz
DtCO2urea = 1/1 = 1.0 s
˙
mCO2urea1 = 0.0726 g/s
˙
mCO2urea2 = 0.0751 g/s
(ii) If you measure batch emissions,
calculate mfuel[cycle] using the
following equation:
calculate mfuel[cycle] using the
following equation:
(iv) If you measure batch emissions and
batch CO2 from urea, calculate
mfuel[cycle] using the following
equation:
(n) Determine the mass of fuel
consumed at idle as follows:
(1) Measure fuel consumption with a
fuel flow meter and report the mean fuel
mass flow rate for each duty cycle,
Ô
mfuelidle.
(2) For measurements that do not
involve measured fuel mass flow rate,
calculate the fuel mass flow rate for
Ô
each duty cycle, mfuelidle, for each set of
vehicle settings, as follows:
Where:
Ô = the mean raw exhaust molar flow rate
nexh
from which you measured emissions.
˙
mCO2urea = mass emission rate of CO2 from the
contribution of urea decomposition over
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(iii) If you measure continuous
emissions and batch CO2 from urea,
Federal Register / Vol. 80, No. 133 / Monday, July 13, 2015 / Proposed Rules
40647
Ô
mCO2urea = the mean CO2 mass emission rate
from urea decomposition as described in
paragraph (c)(9) of this section. If your
engine does not utilize urea SCR for
emission control, or if you choose not to
Ô
perform this correction, set mCO2urea
equal to 0.
MCO2 = molar mass of carbon dioxide.
to determine a, b, and wC for liquid
fuels.
Ô = the mean raw exhaust molar flow rate
nexh
from which you measured emissions
according to 40 CFR 1065.655.
≈
cCcombdry = the mean concentration of carbon
from fuel in the exhaust per mole of dry
exhaust.
≈
cH2Oexhdry = the mean concentration of H2O in
exhaust per mole of dry exhaust.
(o) Use the results of powertrain
testing to determine GEM inputs as
described in this paragraph (o). Declare
a fuel mass consumption rate at idle
Ô
mfuelidle, as described in paragraph (b) of
this section. Include additional
parameters for each of the eight or nine
simulated vehicle configurations as
follows:
(1) Your declared fuel mass
consumption for both cruise cycles and
for the transient cycle, mfuel[cycle], as
described in paragraph (b) of this
section.
(2) Powertrain output speed per unit
of vehicle speed. If the test is done with
the dynamometer connected at the
wheel hubs set ka to the axle ratio of the
rear axle that was used in the test. If the
vehicle does not have a drive axle, such
as hybrid vehicles with direct electric
drive, let ka = 1.
(3) Positive work, W[cycle]powertrain, over
the duty cycle at the transmission
output or wheel hubs from the
powertrain test.
(4) The following table illustrates the
GEM data inputs corresponding to the
different vehicle configurations:
EP13JY15.173
Example:
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the duty cycle as determined from 40
CFR 1036.535(a)(8), for each point, i,
starting from i = 1. If your engine does
not utilize urea SCR for emission control,
or if you choose not to perform this
correction, set this value equal to 0.
MC = molar mass of carbon.
wCmeas = carbon mass fraction of fuel as
determined by 40 CFR 1065.655(d),
except that you may not use the default
properties in Table 1 of 40 CFR 1065.655
Federal Register / Vol. 80, No. 133 / Monday, July 13, 2015 / Proposed Rules
§ 1037.551 Engine-based simulation of
powertrain testing.
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Section 1037.550 describes how to
measure fuel consumption over specific
duty cycles with an engine coupled to
a transmission; § 1037.550(q) describes
how to create equivalent duty cycles for
repeating those same measurements
with just the engine. This § 1037.551
describes how to perform this engine
testing to simulate the powertrain test.
These engine-based measurements may
be used for confirmatory testing as
described in § 1037.235, or for selective
enforcement audits as described in
§ 1037.301, as long as the test engine’s
operation represents the engine
operation observed in the powertrain
test.
(a) Use the procedures of 40 CFR part
1065 to set up the engine, measure
emissions, and record data. Measure
individual parameters and emission
constituents as described in this section.
Where:
vcyclei = vehicle speed of the test cycle for
each point, i, starting from i=1.
ka = drive axle ratio, as declared by the
manufacturer.
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Measure NOX emissions during each of
the specified sampling periods
consistent with the data requirements
40 CFR part 86, subpart T. You may use
emission-measurement systems meeting
the specifications of 40 CFR part 1065,
subpart J, to measure NOX emissions.
For hybrid powertrains, correct for the
net energy change of the energy storage
device as described in 40 CFR 1066.501.
(b) Operate the engine over the
applicable engine duty cycles
corresponding to the vehicle cycles
specified in § 1037.510(a)(2) for
powertrain testing over the applicable
vehicle simulations described in
§ 1037.550(h). Warm up the engine to
prepare for the transient test or one of
the cruise cycles by operating it one
time over one of the simulations of the
corresponding duty cycle. Warm up the
engine to prepare for the idle test by
operating it over a simulation of the 65mph cruise cycle for 600 seconds.
Within 60 seconds after concluding the
warm up cycle, start emission sampling
while the engine operates over the duty
cycle. You may perform any number of
test runs directly in succession once the
engine is warmed up. Perform cycle
validation as described in 40 CFR
1065.514 for engine speed, torque, and
power.
(c) Calculate the mass of fuel
consumed as described in § 1037.550(m)
and (n). Correct each measured value for
the test fuel’s mass-specific net energy
content as described in 40 CFR
1036.530. Use these corrected values to
determine whether the engine’s
r = radius of the loaded tires, as declared by
the manufacturer.
(e) Use speed control with a loop rate
of at least 100 Hz to program the
dynamometer to follow the test cycle, as
follows:
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emission levels conform to the declared
fuel-consumption rates from the
powertrain test.
§ 1037.555 Special procedures for testing
Phase 1 post-transmission hybrid systems.
This section describes the procedure
for simulating a chassis test with a pretransmission or post-transmission
hybrid system for A to B testing of Phase
1 vehicles. These procedures may also
be used to perform A to B testing with
non-hybrid systems. See § 1037.550 for
Phase 2 hybrid systems.
(a) Set up the engine according to 40
CFR 1065.110 to account for work
inputs and outputs and accessory work.
(b) Collect CO2 emissions while
operating the system over the test cycles
specified in § 1037.510(a)(1).
(c) Collect and measure emissions as
described in 40 CFR part 1066.
Calculate emission rates in grams per
ton-mile without rounding. Determine
values for A, B, C, and M for the vehicle
being simulated as specified in 40 CFR
part 1066. If you will apply an
improvement factor or test results to
multiple vehicle configurations, use
values of A, B, C, M, ka, and r that
represent the vehicle configuration with
the smallest potential reduction in
greenhouse gas emissions as a result of
the hybrid capability.
(d) Calculate the transmission output
shaft’s angular speed target for the
driver model, fnref,driver, from the linear
speed associated with the vehicle cycle
using the following equation:
(1) Calculate the transmission output
shaft’s angular speed target for the
dynamometer, fnref,dyno, from the
measured linear speed at the
dynamometer rolls using the following
equation:
E:\FR\FM\13JYP2.SGM
13JYP2
EP13JY15.085
(p) Correct each fuel-consumption
result from paragraph (o) of this section
for the test fuel’s mass-specific net
energy content as described in 40 CFR
1036.530.
(q) For each test run, record the
engine speed and torque as defined in
40 CFR 1065.915(d)(5) with a minimum
sampling frequency of 1 Hz. These
engine speed and torque values
represent a duty cycle that can be used
for separate testing with an engine
mounted on an engine dynamometer,
such as for a selective enforcement audit
as described in § 1037.301.
EP13JY15.174
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40649
(i) Follow the provisions of § 1037.510
to weight the cycle results and
§ 1037.615 to calculate improvement
factors and benefits for advanced
technologies for Phase 1 vehicles.
§ 1037.560
Rear-axle efficiency test.
This section describes a procedure for
(2) For each test, validate the
mapping rear-axle efficiency.
measured transmission output shaft’s
(a) Prepare an axle assembly for
speed with the corresponding reference
testing as follows:
values according to 40 CFR 1065.514(e).
(1) Select a newly manufactured axle
You may delete points when the vehicle assembly housing.
is stopped. Perform the validation based
(2) If you have a family of axle
on speed values at the transmission
assemblies with different axle ratios,
output shaft. For steady-state tests (55
you may test multiple configurations
mph and 65 mph cruise), apply cycleusing a common axle housing.
validation criteria by treating the
(3) Install the axle with an input shaft
sampling periods from the two tests as
angle perpendicular to the axle.
a continuous sampling period. Perform
(i) If the axle assembly has a locking
this validation based on the following
differential, lock the main differential
parameters:
and test it with one electric motor on
the input shaft and a second electric
TABLE 1 OF § 1037.555—STATISTICAL motor on the output side of the output
CRITERIA FOR VALIDATING DUTY CY- shaft that has the speed-reduction gear
CLES
attached to it.
(ii) If an axle assembly has an open
Parameter
Speed control
differential, use an alternate method to
lock the differential for testing.
Slope, a1 ................... 0.950 ≤a1 ≤ 1.030.
(iii) For drive-through tandem-axle
Absolute value of
≤2.0% of maximum
setups, lock the longitudinal and interintercept, √a0√.
test speed.
Standard error of esti- ≤5% of maximum test wheel differentials.
(4) Add gear lubricant according to
mate, SEE.
speed.
the axle manufacturer’s instructions.
Coefficient of deter≥0.970.
Use gear lubricant meeting the
mination, r2.
specification for BASF Emgard FE 2986
(f) Send a brake signal when throttle
as described in ‘‘Emgard® FE 75W–90
position is equal to zero and vehicle
Fuel Efficient Synthetic Gear Lubricant’’
speed is greater than the reference
(incorporated by reference in
vehicle speed from the test cycle. Set a
§ 1037.810). Use this gear lubricant for
delay before changing the brake state to
all axle operation under this section.
prevent the brake signal from dithering,
(5) Install equipment for measuring
consistent with good engineering
the bulk temperature of the gear
judgment.
lubricant in the oil sump or a similar
(g) The driver model should be
location.
designed to follow the cycle as closely
(6) Break in the axle assembly by
as possible and must meet the
warming it up until the gear lubricant is
requirements of § 1037.510 for steadyas least 85 °C, and then operating it for
state testing and 40 CFR 1066.430(e) for 77 minutes at an angular wheel speed of
transient testing. The driver model
246 rpm at each of three differential
should be designed so that the brake
torque settings, 25%, 50%, and 75%, in
and throttle are not applied at the same
sequence, where differential torque is
time.
expressed as a percentage of the axle
(h) Correct for the net energy change
manufacturer’s torque rating. Maintain
of the energy storage device as described gear lubricant temperature at 90±5 °C
in 40 CFR 1066.501.
throughout the warm-up period.
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(7) Drain and refill the gear lubricant
following the break-in procedure.
(b) Measure input and output speeds
and torques as described in 40 CFR
1065.210(b). Calibrate and verify
measurement instruments according to
40 CFR part 1065, subpart C. Record all
data, including bulk oil temperature, at
a minimum of 256 Hz.
(c) The test matrix consists of torque
and wheel speed values meeting the
following specifications:
(1) Input torque values range from
1,000 to 4,000 N·m in 1,000 N·m
increments; also include a test point
with an output torque of 0 N·m.
(2) Determine maximum wheel speed
corresponding to a vehicle speed of 65
mph based on the smallest tire that will
be used with the axle. Use wheel speeds
for testing that include maximum wheel
speed, 50 rpm, and intermediate speeds
in 100-rpm increments up to maximum
wheel speed (150, 250, etc.). You may
omit the last 100-rpm increment if it is
within 10 rpm of the maximum wheel
speed, and instead test at maximum
wheel speed for the last test point.
(3) The average of measured values
corresponding to each separate torquemeasurement point must be within ±1
N·m of the setpoint for input torque, and
within ±1 rpm of the setpoint for output
speed.
(d) Determine rear-axle efficiency
using the following procedure:
(1) Maintain ambient temperature
between (20 and 30) °C throughout
testing. Measure ambient temperature
within 1.0 m of the axle assembly.
(2) Maintain gear lubricant
temperature at 82±1 °C. You may use
external heating and cooling as needed.
(3) Warm up the axle by operating it
at maximum wheel speed and at zero
output torque until the gear lubricant is
within the specified temperature range.
(4) Continue operating at maximum
wheel speed and zero output torque for
at least 300 seconds, then measure the
input torque, output torque, and wheel
speed for at least 300 seconds, recording
the average values for all three
parameters. Repeat this stabilization and
measurement sequence sequentially for
higher torque setpoints from the test
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T = instantaneous measured torque at the
transmission output shaft.
Fbrake = instantaneous brake force applied by
the driver model to add force to slow
down the vehicle.
t = elapsed time in the driving schedule as
measured by the dynamometer, in
seconds.
EP13JY15.087
Where:
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before completing the map, invalidate
all the measurements made at that
wheel speed. Once the problem has
been resolved, warm up the axle as
described in paragraph (d)(3) of this
section and continue with
measurements from the wheel speed
where you stopped testing.
(e) Calculate the torque loss, Tloss, at
each point from the test matrix using the
following equation:
further limited by this paragraph (a)(2).
If new engine emission standards apply
in a given model year, you may install
engines built before the date of the new
or changed standards under the
provisions of 40 CFR 1068.105(a)
through March 31 of that year without
our approval; you may not install such
engines after March 31 of that year
unless we approve it in advance.
Subpart G—Special Compliance
Installing such engines after March 31
Provisions
without our prior approval is
§ 1037.601 General compliance provisions. considered to be prohibited stockpiling
of engines. In a written request for our
(a) Engine and vehicle manufacturers,
approval, you must describe how your
as well as owners and operators of
circumstances led you and your engine
vehicles subject to the requirements of
supplier to have normal inventories of
this part, and all other persons, must
engines that were not used up in the
observe the provisions of this part, the
provisions of 40 CFR part 1068, and the specified time frame. We will approve
your request for up to three additional
provisions of the Clean Air Act. The
provisions of 40 CFR part 1068 apply for months to install up to 50 engines under
this paragraph (a)(2) if we determine
heavy-duty vehicles as specified in that
part, subject to the following provisions: that the excess inventory is a result of
unforeseeable circumstances and should
(1) Except as specifically allowed by
not be considered circumvention of
this part or 40 CFR part 1068, it is a
emission standards.
violation of § 1068.101(a)(1) to
(3) The provisions of 40 CFR 1068.235
introduce into U.S. commerce a tractor
that allow for modifying certified
or vocational vehicle containing an
vehicles and engines for competition do
engine not certified to the requirements
not apply for heavy-duty vehicles or
of this part and 40 CFR part 86
heavy-duty engines. Certified motor
corresponding to the calendar year for
vehicles and motor vehicle engines and
date of manufacture of the tractor or
their emission control devices must
vocational vehicle. Similarly, it is a
remain in their certified configuration
violation to introduce into U.S.
even if they are used solely for
commerce a Phase 1 tractor containing
competition or if they become nonroad
an engine not certified for use in
vehicles or engines; anyone modifying a
tractors; or to introduce into U.S.
certified motor vehicle or motor vehicle
commerce a vocational vehicle
engine for any reason is subject to the
containing a light heavy-duty or
medium heavy-duty engine not certified tampering and defeat device
prohibitions of 40 CFR 1068.101(b) and
for use in vocational vehicles. These
42 U.S.C. 7522(a)(3). Note that a new
prohibitions apply especially to the
vehicle that will be used solely for
vehicle manufacturer. Note that this
competition may be excluded from the
paragraph (a)(1) allows the use of Class
8 tractor engines in vocational vehicles. requirements of this part based on a
determination that the vehicle is not a
(2) The provisions of 40 CFR
motor vehicle under 40 CFR 85.1703.
1068.105(a) apply for vehicle
(4) The tampering prohibition in 40
manufacturers installing engines
CFR 1068.101(b)(1) applies for
certified under 40 CFR part 1036 as
alternative fuel conversions as specified
in 40 CFR part 85, subpart F.
(5) The warranty-related prohibitions
in section 203(a)(4) of the Act (42 U.S.C.
7522(a)(4)) apply to manufacturers of
new heavy-duty highway vehicles in
addition to the prohibitions described in
40 CFR 1068.101(b)(6). We may assess a
civil penalty up to $37,500 for each
engine or vehicle in violation.
(6) The hardship exemption
provisions of 40 CFR 1068.245,
1068.250, and 1068.255 do not apply for
heavy-duty vehicles.
(7) A vehicle manufacturer that
completes assembly of a vehicle at two
or more facilities may ask to use as the
date of manufacture for that vehicle the
date on which manufacturing is
completed at the place of main
assembly, consistent with provisions of
49 CFR 567.4. Note that such staged
assembly is subject to the corresponding
provisions of 40 CFR 1068.260. Include
your request in your application for
certification, along with a summary of
your staged-assembly process. You may
ask to apply this allowance to some or
all of the vehicles in your vehicle
family. Our approval is effective when
we grant your certificate. We will not
approve your request if we determine
that you intend to use this allowance to
circumvent the intent of this part.
(8) The provisions for selective
enforcement audits apply as described
in 40 CFR part 1068, subpart E, and
§ 1037.301.
(b) Vehicles exempted from the
applicable standards of 40 CFR part 86
are exempt from the standards of this
part without request. Similarly, vehicles
are exempt without request if the
installed engine is exempted from the
applicable standards in 40 CFR part 86.
(c) The prohibitions of 40 CFR
1068.101 apply for vehicles subject to
the requirements of this part. The
actions prohibited under this provision
include the introduction into U.S.
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Where:
Tin = input torque.
ka = drive axle ratio, expressed to at least the
nearest 0.001.
Tout = the output torque.
Example:
Tin = 1000.0 N·m
ka = 3.731
Tout = 3695.1 N·m
Tloss = 1000.0 · 3.731¥3695.1 = 35.9 N·m
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average value for input torque, output
torque, and wheel speed at each torque
setting.
(5) Decrease wheel speed to the next
lower speed setting and repeat the
torque sweep described in paragraph
(d)(4) of this section to determine input
torque, output torque, and wheel speed
results for all the torque settings at the
new wheel speed. Repeat this process in
order of decreasing wheel speed until
the mapping is complete for all points
in the test matrix. If the test is aborted
matrix while holding wheel speed
constant. Repeat the stabilization and
measurement sequence at the same
wheel speed from highest to lowest
torque. This results in two
measurements at each torque setting.
Perform the stabilization and
measurement sequence again in a
sequence from low to high torque
values, then from high to low torque
values, all at the same wheel speed,
resulting in four measurements at each
torque setting. Calculate an arithmetic
Federal Register / Vol. 80, No. 133 / Monday, July 13, 2015 / Proposed Rules
commerce of a complete or incomplete
vehicle subject to the standards of this
part where the vehicle is not covered by
a valid certificate of conformity or
exemption.
(d) The emergency vehicle field
modification provisions of 40 CFR
85.1716 apply with respect to the
standards of this part.
(e) Under § 1037.801, certain vehicles
are considered to be new vehicles when
they are imported into the United
States, even if they have previously
been used outside the country.
Independent Commercial Importers may
use the provisions of 40 CFR part 85,
subpart P, and 40 CFR 85.1706(b) to
receive a certificate of conformity for
engines and vehicles meeting all the
requirements of 40 CFR part 1036 and
this part 1037.
(f) Standards apply to multi-fuel
vehicles as described for engines in 40
CFR 1036.601(d).
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§ 1037.605 Installing engines certified to
alternate standards for specialty vehicles.
(a) General provisions. This section
allows vehicle manufacturers to
introduce into U.S. commerce certain
new motor vehicles if the engines are
certified to alternate emission standards
that are equivalent to standards that
apply for nonroad engines under 40 CFR
part 1039 or 1048. See 40 CFR 86.007–
11(g) and 40 CFR 86.008–10(g). The
provisions of this section apply for the
following types of vehicles:
(1) Vehicles with a hybrid powertrain
in which the engine provides energy for
the Rechargeable Energy Storage
System.
(2) Amphibious vehicles.
(3) Vehicles with maximum speed at
or below 45 miles per hour. If your
vehicle is speed-limited to meet this
specification by reducing maximum
speed below what is otherwise possible,
this speed limitation must be
programmed into the engine or vehicle’s
electronic control module in a way that
is tamper-proof. If your vehicles are not
inherently limited to a maximum speed
at or below 45 miles per hour, they may
qualify under this paragraph (a)(3) only
if we approve your design to limit
maximum speed as being tamper-proof
in advance.
(b) Notification and reporting
requirements. Send the Designated
Compliance Officer written notification
describing your plans before using the
provisions of this section. In addition,
by February 28 of each calendar year (or
less often if we tell you), send the
Designated Compliance Officer a report
with all the following information:
(1) Identify your full corporate name,
address, and telephone number.
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(2) List the vehicle and engine models
for which you used this exemption in
the previous year and identify the total
number of vehicles.
(c) Production limits. You may
produce up to 1,000 hybrid vehicles, up
to 200 amphibious vehicles, and up to
200 speed-limited vehicles under this
section in a given model year. This
includes vehicles produced by affiliated
companies. If you exceed this limit, the
exemption is void for the number of
vehicles that exceed the limit for the
model year. For the purpose of this
paragraph (c), we will include all
vehicles labeled or otherwise identified
as exempt under this section.
(d) Vehicle standards. Hybrid vehicles
using the provisions of this section
remain subject to all other requirements
of this part 1037. For example, you must
use GEM in conjunction with
powertrain testing to demonstrate
compliance with emission standards
under subpart B of this part. Vehicles
qualifying under paragraph (a)(2) or
(a)(3) of this section are exempt from the
requirements of this part, except as
specified in this section; these vehicles
must include a label as specified in
§ 1037.135(a) with the information from
§ 1037.135(c)(1) and (2) and the
following statement: ‘‘THIS [amphibious
vehicle or speed-limited vehicle] IS
EXEMPT FROM GREENHOUSE GAS
STANDARDS UNDER 40 CFR
1037.605.’’
§ 1037.610 Vehicles with off-cycle
technologies.
(a) You may ask us to apply the
provisions of this section for CO2
emission reductions resulting from
vehicle technologies that were not in
common use with heavy-duty vehicles
before model year 2010 that are not
reflected in GEM. These may be
described as off-cycle or innovative
technologies. These provisions may be
applied for CO2 emission reductions
reflected using the specified test
procedures, provided they are not
reflected in GEM. We will apply these
provisions only for technologies that
will result in measurable, demonstrable,
and verifiable real-world CO2 emission
reductions. This section does not apply
for trailers.
(b) The provisions of this section may
be applied as either an improvement
factor or as a separate credit within the
vehicle family, consistent with good
engineering judgment. Note that the
term ‘‘credit’’ in this section describes
an additive adjustment to emission rates
and is not equivalent to an emission
credit in the ABT program of subpart H
of this part. We recommend that you
base your credit/adjustment on A to B
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40651
testing of pairs of vehicles differing only
with respect to the technology in
question.
(1) Calculate improvement factors as
the ratio of in-use emissions with the
technology divided by the in-use
emissions without the technology. Use
the improvement-factor approach where
good engineering judgment indicates
that the actual benefit will be
proportional to emissions measured
over the test procedures specified in this
part.
(2) Calculate separate credits (g/tonmile) based on the difference between
the in-use emission rate with the
technology and the in-use emission rate
without the technology. Subtract this
value from your GEM result and use this
adjusted value to determine your FEL.
Use the separate-credit approach where
good engineering judgment indicates
that the actual benefit will be not be
proportional to emissions measured
over the test procedures specified in this
part.
(3) We may require you to discount or
otherwise adjust your improvement
factor or credit to account for
uncertainty or other relevant factors.
(c) You may perform A to B testing by
measuring emissions from the vehicles
during chassis testing or from in-use onroad testing. We recommend that you
perform on-road testing according to
SAE J1321, Fuel Consumption Test
Procedure—Type II, revised February
2012, or SAE J1526, Joint TMC/SAE
Fuel Consumption In-Service Test
Procedure Type III, Issued June 1987
(see § 1037.810 for information on
availability of SAE standards), subject to
the following provisions:
(1) The minimum route distance is
100 miles.
(2) The route selected must be
representative in terms of grade. We will
take into account published and
relevant research in determining
whether the grade is representative.
(3) Control vehicle speed over the
route to be representative of the drivecycle weighting adopted for each
regulatory subcategory, as specified in
§ 1037.510(c), or apply a correction to
account for the appropriate weighting.
For example, if the route selected for an
evaluation of a combination tractor with
a sleeper cab contains only interstate
driving at 65 mph, the improvement
factor would apply only to 86 percent of
the weighted result.
(4) The ambient air temperature must
be between (5 and 35) °C, unless the
technology requires other temperatures
for demonstration.
(5) We may allow you to use a
Portable Emissions Measurement
System (PEMS) device for measuring
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CO2 emissions during the on-road
testing.
(d) Send your request to the
Designated Compliance Officer. We
recommend that you do not begin
collecting test data (for submission to
EPA) before contacting us. For
technologies for which the engine
manufacturer could also claim credits
(such as transmissions in certain
circumstances), we may require you to
include a letter from the engine
manufacturer stating that it will not seek
credits for the same technology. Your
request must contain the following
items:
(1) A detailed description of the offcycle technology and how it functions
to reduce CO2 emissions under
conditions not represented on the duty
cycles required for certification.
(2) A list of the vehicle configurations
that will be equipped with the
technology.
(3) A detailed description and
justification of the selected test vehicles.
(4) All testing and simulation data
required under this section, plus any
other data you have considered in your
analysis. You may ask for our
preliminary approval of your test plan
under § 1037.210.
(5) A complete description of the
methodology used to estimate the offcycle benefit of the technology and all
supporting data, including vehicle
testing and in-use activity data. Also
include a statement regarding your
recommendation for applying the
provisions of this section for the given
technology as an improvement factor or
a credit.
(6) An estimate of the off-cycle benefit
by vehicle model, and the fleetwide
benefit based on projected sales of
vehicle models equipped with the
technology.
(7) A demonstration of the in-use
durability of the off-cycle technology,
based on any available engineering
analysis or durability testing data (either
by testing components or whole
vehicles).
(8) A recommended method for
auditing production vehicles consistent
with the intent of 40 CFR part 1068,
subpart E. We may approve your
recommended method or specify a
different method.
(e) We may seek public comment on
your request, consistent with the
provisions of 40 CFR 86.1866. However,
we will generally not seek public
comment on credits or adjustments
based on A to B chassis testing
performed according to the duty-cycle
testing requirements of this part or inuse testing performed according to
paragraph (c) of this section.
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(f) We may approve an improvement
factor or credit for any vehicle family
that is properly represented by your
testing. You may similarly continue to
use an approved improvement factor or
credit for any appropriate vehicle
families in future model years through
2020. Starting in model year 2021, you
must request our approval before
applying an improvement factor or
credit under this section for any kind of
technology, even if we approved an
improvement factor or credit for similar
vehicle models before model year 2021.
§ 1037.615 Hybrid vehicles and other
advanced technologies.
(a) This section applies for Phase 1
hybrid vehicles with regenerative
braking, vehicles equipped with
Rankine-cycle engines, electric vehicles,
and fuel cell vehicles. You may not
generate credits for engine features for
which the engines generate credits
under 40 CFR part 1036. Note that Phase
2 and later hybrid vehicles may be
powertrain tested under § 1037.550 to
demonstrate the performance of hybrid
powertrains.
(b) Generate advanced technology
emission credits for hybrid vehicles that
include regenerative braking (or the
equivalent) and energy storage systems,
fuel cell vehicles, and vehicles
equipped with Rankine-cycle engines as
follows:
(1) Measure the effectiveness of the
advanced system by chassis testing a
vehicle equipped with the advanced
system and an equivalent conventional
vehicle, or by testing the hybrid systems
and the equivalent non-hybrid systems
as described in § 1037.555. Test the
vehicles as specified in subpart F of this
part. For purposes of this paragraph (b),
a conventional vehicle is considered to
be equivalent if it has the same footprint
(as defined in 40 CFR 86.1803), vehicle
service class, aerodynamic drag, and
other relevant factors not directly
related to the hybrid powertrain. If you
use § 1037.540 to quantify the benefits
of a hybrid system for PTO operation,
the conventional vehicle must have the
same number of PTO circuits and have
equivalent PTO power. If you do not
produce an equivalent vehicle, you may
create and test a prototype equivalent
vehicle. The conventional vehicle is
considered Vehicle A and the advanced
vehicle is considered Vehicle B. We
may specify an alternate cycle if your
vehicle includes a power take-off.
(2) Calculate an improvement factor
and g/ton-mile benefit using the
following equations and parameters:
(i) Improvement Factor = [(Emission
Rate A)¥(Emission Rate B)]/(Emission
Rate A).
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(ii) g/ton-mile benefit = Improvement
Factor × (GEM Result B).
(iii) Emission Rates A and B are the
g/ton-mile CO2 emission rates of the
conventional and advanced vehicles,
respectively, as measured under the test
procedures specified in this section.
GEM Result B is the g/ton-mile CO2
emission rate resulting from emission
modeling of the advanced vehicle as
specified in § 1037.520.
(3) If you apply an improvement
factor to multiple vehicle configurations
using the same advanced technology,
use the vehicle configuration with the
smallest potential reduction in
greenhouse gas emissions resulting from
the hybrid capability.
(4) Use the equations of § 1037.705 to
convert the g/ton-mile benefit to
emission credits (in Mg). Use the g/tonmile benefit in place of the (Std-FEL)
term.
(c) See § 1037.540 for special testing
provisions related to vehicles equipped
with hybrid power take-off units.
(d) You may use an engineering
analysis to calculate an improvement
factor for fuel cell vehicles based on
measured emissions from the fuel cell
vehicle.
(e) For electric vehicles, calculate CO2
credits using an FEL of 0 g/ton-mile.
(f) As specified in subpart H of this
part, credits generated under this
section may be used under this part
1037 outside of the averaging set in
which they were generated or used
under 40 CFR part 1036.
(g) You may certify using both
provisions of this section and the offcycle technology provisions of
§ 1037.610, provided you do not double
count emission benefits.
§ 1037.620 Responsibilities for multiple
manufacturers.
This section describes certain
circumstances in which multiple
manufacturers share responsibilities for
vehicle they produce together. This
section does limit responsibilities that
apply under the Act or these regulations
for anyone meeting the definition of
‘‘manufacturer’’ in § 1037.801.
(a) The delegated assembly provisions
of § 1037.621 apply for certifying
manufacturers that rely on other
manufacturers to finish assembly in a
certified configuration. The provisions
of § 1037.622 apply for manufacturers
that ship vehicles subject to the
requirements of this part to a certifying
secondary vehicle manufacturer. The
provisions of § 1037.622 also apply to
the secondary manufacturer.
(b) Manufacturers of aerodynamic
devices may perform the aerodynamic
testing described in § 1037.525 to
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quantify CDA values for trailers and
submit that data to EPA verification
under § 1037.211. Trailer manufacturers
may use such verified data to establish
modeling inputs for certifying their
trailers. Both device manufacturers and
trailer manufacturers are subject to the
recall provisions described in 40 CFR
part 1068, subpart F.
(c) Tire manufacturers must comply
with the provisions of § 1037.650.
§ 1037.621
Delegated assembly.
(a) This section describes an
exemption that allows certificate
holders to sell or ship vehicles that are
missing certain emission-related
components if those components will be
installed by a secondary vehicle
manufacturer. (Note: See § 1037.622 for
provisions related to manufacturers
introducing into U.S. commerce
partially complete vehicles for which a
secondary vehicle manufacturer holds
the certificate of conformity.) This
exemption is temporary as described in
40 CFR 1068(f).
(b) The provisions of 40 CFR 1068.261
apply for vehicles subject to GHG
standards under this part, with the
following exceptions and clarifications:
(1) Understand references to
‘‘engines’’ to refer to vehicles.
(2) Understand references to
‘‘aftertreatment components’’ to refer to
any emission-related components
needed for complying with GHG
standards under this part.
(3) Understand ‘‘equipment
manufacturers’’ to be secondary vehicle
manufacturers.
(4) The provisions of 40 CFR
1068.261(b), (c)(7), (d), and (e) do not
apply. Accordingly, the provisions of 40
CFR 1068.261(c) apply regardless of
pricing arrangements.
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§ 1037.622 Shipment of incomplete
vehicles to secondary vehicle
manufacturers.
This section specifies how
manufacturers may introduce partially
complete vehicles into U.S. commerce.
The provisions of this section do not
apply for trailers, except in unusual
circumstances. You may not use the
provisions of this section to circumvent
the intent of this part.
(a) The provisions of this section
allow manufacturers to ship partially
complete vehicles to secondary vehicle
manufacturers or otherwise introduce
them into U.S. commerce in the
following circumstances:
(1) Tractors. Manufacturers may
introduce partially complete tractors
into U.S. commerce if they are covered
by a certificate of conformity for tractors
and will be in their certified tractor
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configuration before they reach the
ultimate purchasers. For example, this
would apply for sleepers initially
shipped without the sleeper
compartments attached. Note that
delegated assembly provisions may
apply (see § 1037.621).
(2) Small businesses modifying
certified tractors. Small businesses that
build custom sleeper cabs may modify
complete or incomplete vehicles
certified as tractors, as long as they do
not increase the effective frontal area of
the certified configuration.
(3) Vocational vehicles.
Manufacturers may introduce partially
complete vocational vehicles into U.S.
commerce if they are covered by a
certificate of conformity for vocational
vehicles and will be in their certified
vocational configuration before they
reach the ultimate purchasers. Note that
delegated assembly provisions may
apply (see § 1037.621).
(4) Uncertified vehicles that will be
certified by secondary vehicle
manufacturers. Manufacturers may
introduce into U.S. commerce partially
complete vehicles for which they do not
hold a certificate of conformity only as
allowed by paragraph (b) of this section;
however, the requirements of this
section do not apply for tractors or
vocational vehicles built before January
1, 2022, that are produced by a
secondary vehicle manufacturer if they
are excluded from the standards of this
part under § 1037.150(c).
(b) The provisions of this paragraph
(b) generally apply where the secondary
vehicle manufacturer has substantial
control over the design and assembly of
emission controls. In unusual
circumstances we may allow other
secondary vehicle manufacturers to use
these provisions. In determining
whether a manufacturer has substantial
control over the design and assembly of
emission controls, we would consider
the degree to which the secondary
manufacturer would be able to ensure
that the engine and vehicle will conform
to the regulations in their final
configurations.
(1) A secondary manufacturer may
finish assembly of partially complete
vehicles in the following cases:
(i) It obtains a vehicle that is not fully
assembled with the intent to
manufacture a complete vehicle in a
certified configuration.
(ii) It obtains a vehicle with the intent
to modify it to a certified configuration
before it reaches the ultimate purchaser.
For example, this may apply for
converting a gasoline-fueled vehicle to
operate on natural gas under the terms
of a valid certificate.
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(2) Manufacturers may introduce
partially complete vehicles into U.S.
commerce as described in this
paragraph (b) if they have a written
request for such vehicles from a
secondary vehicle manufacturer that
will finish the vehicle assembly and has
certified the vehicle (or the vehicle has
been exempted or excluded from the
requirements of this part). The written
request must include a statement that
the secondary manufacturer has a
certificate of conformity (or exemption/
exclusion) for the vehicle and identify a
valid vehicle family name associated
with each vehicle model ordered (or the
basis for an exemption/exclusion). The
original vehicle manufacturer must
apply a removable label meeting the
requirements of 40 CFR 1068.45 that
identifies the corporate name of the
original manufacturer and states that the
vehicle is exempt under the provisions
of § 1037.622. The name of the
certifying manufacturer must also be on
the label or, alternatively, on the bill of
lading that accompanies the vehicles
during shipment. The original
manufacturer may not apply a
permanent emission control information
label identifying the vehicle’s eventual
status as a certified vehicle.
(3) If you are the secondary
manufacturer and you will hold the
certificate, you must include the
following information in your
application for certification:
(i) Identify the original manufacturer
of the partially complete vehicle or of
the complete vehicle you will modify.
(ii) Describe briefly how and where
final assembly will be completed.
Specify how you have the ability to
ensure that the vehicles will conform to
the regulations in their final
configuration. (Note: This section
prohibits using the provisions of this
paragraph (b) unless you have
substantial control over the design and
assembly of emission controls.)
(iii) State unconditionally that you
will not distribute the vehicles without
conforming to all applicable regulations.
(4) If you are a secondary
manufacturer and you are already a
certificate holder for other families, you
may receive shipment of partially
complete vehicles after you apply for a
certificate of conformity but before the
certificate’s effective date. This
exemption allows the original
manufacturer to ship vehicles after you
have applied for a certificate of
conformity. Manufacturers may
introduce partially complete vehicles
into U.S. commerce as described in this
paragraph (b)(4) if they have a written
request for such vehicles from a
secondary manufacturer stating that the
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application for certification has been
submitted (instead of the information
we specify in paragraph (b)(2) of this
section). We may set additional
conditions under this paragraph (b)(4) to
prevent circumvention of regulatory
requirements.
(5) The provisions of this section also
apply for shipping partially complete
vehicles if the vehicle is covered by a
valid exemption and there is no valid
family name that could be used to
represent the vehicle model. Unless we
approve otherwise in advance, you may
do this only when shipping engines to
secondary manufacturers that are
certificate holders. In this case, the
secondary manufacturer must identify
the regulatory cite identifying the
applicable exemption instead of a valid
family name when ordering engines
from the original vehicle manufacturer.
(6) Both original and secondary
manufacturers must keep the records
described in this section for at least five
years, including the written request for
exempted vehicles and the bill of lading
for each shipment (if applicable). The
written request is deemed to be a
submission to EPA.
(7) These provisions are intended
only to allow secondary manufacturers
to obtain or transport vehicles in the
specific circumstances identified in this
section so any exemption under this
section expires when the vehicle
reaches the point of final assembly
identified in paragraph (b)(3)(ii) of this
section.
(8) For purposes of this section, an
allowance to introduce partially
complete vehicles into U.S. commerce
includes a conditional allowance to sell,
introduce, or deliver such vehicles into
commerce in the United States or
import them into the United States. It
does not include a general allowance to
offer such vehicles for sale because this
exemption is intended to apply only for
cases in which the certificate holder
already has an arrangement to purchase
the vehicles from the original
manufacturer. This exemption does not
allow the original manufacturer to
subsequently offer the vehicles for sale
to a different manufacturer who will
hold the certificate unless that second
manufacturer has also complied with
the requirements of this part. The
exemption does not apply for any
individual vehicles that are not labeled
as specified in this section or which are
shipped to someone who is not a
certificate holder.
(9) We may suspend, revoke, or void
an exemption under this section, as
follows:
(i) We may suspend or revoke your
exemption if you fail to meet the
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requirements of this section. We may
suspend or revoke an exemption related
to a specific secondary manufacturer if
that manufacturer sells vehicles that are
in not in a certified configuration in
violation of the regulations. We may
disallow this exemption for future
shipments to the affected secondary
manufacturer or set additional
conditions to ensure that vehicles will
be assembled in the certified
configuration.
(ii) We may void an exemption for all
the affected vehicles if you intentionally
submit false or incomplete information
or fail to keep and provide to EPA the
records required by this section.
(iii) The exemption is void for a
vehicle that is shipped to a company
that is not a certificate holder or for a
vehicle that is shipped to a secondary
manufacturer that is not in compliance
with the requirements of this section.
(iv) The secondary manufacturer may
be liable for penalties for causing a
prohibited act where the exemption is
voided due to actions on the part of the
secondary manufacturer.
(c) Provide instructions along with
partially complete vehicles including all
information necessary to ensure that an
engine will be installed in its certified
configuration.
§ 1037.630
Special purpose tractors.
(a) General provisions. This section
allows a vehicle manufacturer to
reclassify certain tractors as vocational
tractors. Vocational tractors are treated
as vocational vehicles and are exempt
from the standards of § 1037.106. Note
that references to ‘‘tractors’’ outside of
this section mean non-vocational
tractors.
(1) This allowance is intended only
for vehicles that do not typically operate
at highway speeds, or would otherwise
not benefit from efficiency
improvements designed for line-haul
tractors. This allowance is limited to the
following vehicle and application types:
(i) Low-roof tractors intended for
intra-city pickup and delivery, such as
those that deliver bottled beverages to
retail stores.
(ii) Tractors intended for off-road
operation (including mixed service
operation), such as those with
reinforced frames and increased ground
clearance.
(iii) Model year 2020 and earlier
tractors with a gross combination weight
rating (GCWR) over 120,000 pounds.
Note that tractors meeting the definition
of ‘‘heavy-haul’’ in § 1037.801 may be
certified to the heavy-haul standards in
§ 1037.106.
(2) Where we determine that a
manufacturer is not applying this
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allowance in good faith, we may require
the manufacturer to obtain preliminary
approval before using this allowance.
(b) Requirements. The following
requirements apply with respect to
tractors reclassified under this section:
(1) The vehicle must fully conform to
all requirements applicable to
vocational vehicles under this part.
(2) Vehicles reclassified under this
section must be certified as a separate
vehicle family. However, they remain
part of the vocational regulatory
subcategory and averaging set that
applies for their weight class.
(3) You must include the following
additional statement on the vehicle’s
emission control information label
under § 1037.135: ‘‘THIS VEHICLE WAS
CERTIFIED AS A VOCATIONAL
TRACTOR UNDER 40 CFR 1037.630.’’
(4) You must keep records for three
years to document your basis for
believing the vehicles will be used as
described in paragraph (a)(1) of this
section. Include in your application for
certification a brief description of your
basis.
(c) Production limit. No manufacturer
may produce more than 21,000 vehicles
under this section in any consecutive
three model year period. This means
you may not exceed 6,000 in a given
model year if the combined total for the
previous two years was 15,000. The
production limit applies with respect to
all Class 7 and Class 8 tractors certified
or exempted as vocational tractors. Note
that in most cases, the provisions of
paragraph (a) of this section will limit
the allowable number of vehicles to be
a number lower than the production
limit of this paragraph (c).
(d) Off-road exemption. All the
provisions of this section apply for
vocational tractors exempted under
§ 1037.631, except as follows:
(1) The vehicles are required to
comply with the requirements of
§ 1037.631 instead of the requirements
that would otherwise apply to
vocational vehicles. Vehicles complying
with the requirements of § 1037.631 and
using an engine certified to the
standards of 40 CFR part 1036 are
deemed to fully conform to all
requirements applicable to vocational
vehicles under this part.
(2) The vehicles must be labeled as
specified under § 1037.631 instead of as
specified in paragraph (b)(3) of this
section.
§ 1037.631 Exemption for vocational
vehicles intended for off-road use.
This section provides an exemption
from the greenhouse gas standards of
this part for certain vocational vehicles
intended to be used extensively in off-
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road environments such as forests, oil
fields, and construction sites. This
section does not exempt engines used in
vocational vehicles from the standards
of 40 CFR part 86 or part 1036. Note that
you may not include these exempted
vehicles in any credit calculations
under this part. Note also that trailers
designed specifically for off-road use are
generally excluded from the
requirements of this part under § 1037.5.
(a) Qualifying criteria. Vocational
vehicles intended for off-road use are
exempt without request, subject to the
provisions of this section, if they are
primarily designed to perform work offroad (such as in oil fields, mining,
forests, or construction sites), and they
meet at least one of the criteria of
paragraph (a)(1) of this section and at
least one of the criteria of paragraph
(a)(2) of this section.
(1) The vehicle must have affixed
components designed to work in an offroad environment (i.e., hazardous
material equipment or off-road drill
equipment) or be designed to operate at
low speeds such that it is unsuitable for
normal highway operation.
(2) The vehicle must meet one of the
following criteria:
(i) Have an axle that has a gross axle
weight rating (GAWR) at or above
29,000 pounds.
(ii) Have a speed attainable in 2.0
miles of not more than 33 mph.
(iii) Have a speed attainable in 2.0
miles of not more than 45 mph, an
unloaded vehicle weight that is not less
than 95 percent of its gross vehicle
weight rating, and no capacity to carry
occupants other than the driver and
operating crew.
(b) Tractors. The provisions of this
section may apply for tractors only if
each tractor qualifies as a vocational
tractor under § 1037.630.
(c) Recordkeeping and reporting. (1)
You must keep records to document that
your exempted vehicle configurations
meet all applicable requirements of this
section. Keep these records for at least
eight years after you stop producing the
exempted vehicle model. We may
review these records at any time.
(2) You must also keep records of the
individual exempted vehicles you
produce, including the vehicle
identification number and a description
of the vehicle configuration.
(3) Within 90 days after the end of
each model year, you must send to the
Designated Compliance Officer a report
with the following information:
(i) A description of each exempted
vehicle configuration, including an
explanation of why it qualifies for this
exemption.
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(ii) The number of vehicles exempted
for each vehicle configuration.
(d) Labeling. You must include the
following additional statement on the
vehicle’s emission control information
label under § 1037.135: ‘‘THIS VEHICLE
WAS EXEMPTED UNDER 40 CFR
1037.631.’’
§ 1037.635
Glider kits.
Section 1037.601(a)(1) generally
disallows the introduction into U.S.
commerce of a new tractor or vocational
vehicle (including a vehicle assembled
from a glider kit) unless it has an engine
that is certified to the standards that
apply for the engine model year
corresponding to the vehicle’s date of
manufacture. For example, for a vehicle
with a 2020 date of manufacture, the
engine must meet the standards that
apply for model year 2020. Note that the
engine may be from an earlier model
year if the standards were identical.
This section describes an exemption
from the certification requirement that
applies for qualifying manufacturers.
Note that the Clean Air Act definition of
‘‘manufacturer’’ includes anyone who
assembles motor vehicles, including
entities that install engines in or
otherwise complete assembly of glider
kits.
(a) Vehicles conforming to the
requirements in paragraphs (b) through
(g) of this section are exempt from the
emission standards of this part. Engines
in such vehicles remain subject to the
requirements of 40 CFR part 86
applicable for the engines’ original
model year, but are exempt from the
standards of 40 CFR part 1036.
(b) You are eligible for an exemption
under this section if you are a small
manufacturer and you sold vehicles in
2014 under the provisions of
§ 1037.150(j). You must notify us of
your plans to use this exemption before
you introduce exempt vehicles into U.S.
commerce. In your notification, you
must identify your annual sales of such
vehicles for calendar years 2010 through
2014. Vehicles you produce before
notifying us, are not exempt under this
section.
(c) In a given calendar year, you may
sell up to 300 exempt vehicles under
this section, or up to the highest annual
sales volume you identify in paragraph
(b) of this section, whichever is less.
(d) Identify the number of exempt
vehicles you sold under this section for
the prior calendar year in your annual
report under § 1037.250,
(e) Include the following statement on
the label required under § 1037.135:
‘‘THIS VEHICLE AND ITS ENGINE ARE
EXEMPT UNDER 40 CFR 1037.635.’’
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(f) This exemption is valid for a given
vehicle only if you meet all the
requirements and conditions of this
section that apply with respect to that
vehicle. Introducing such a vehicle into
U.S. commerce without meeting all
applicable requirements and conditions
violates 40 CFR 1068.101(a)(1).
(g) Companies that are not small
manufacturers may sell uncertified
incomplete vehicles without engines to
small manufacturers for the purpose of
producing exempt vehicles under this
section, subject to the provisions of
§ 1037.622.
§ 1037.640
Variable vehicle speed limiters.
This section specifies provisions that
apply for vehicle speed limiters (VSLs)
that you model under § 1037.520. This
does not apply for VSLs that you do not
model under § 1037.520.
(a) General. The regulations of this
part do not constrain how you may
design VSLs for your vehicles. For
example, you may design your VSL to
have a single fixed speed limit or a softtop speed limit. You may also design
your VSL to expire after accumulation
of a predetermined number of miles.
However, designs with soft tops or
expiration features are subject to
proration provisions under this section
that do not apply to fixed VSLs that do
not expire.
(b) Definitions. The following
definitions apply for purposes of this
section:
(1) Default speed limit means the
speed limit that normally applies for the
vehicle, except as follows:
(i) The default speed limit for
adjustable VSLs must represent the
speed limit that applies when the VSL
is adjusted to its highest setting under
paragraph (c) of this section.
(ii) For VSLs with soft tops, the
default speed does not include speeds
possible only during soft-top operation.
(iii) For expiring VSLs, the default
does not include speeds that are
possible only after expiration.
(2) Soft-top speed limit means the
highest speed limit that applies during
soft-top operation.
(3) Maximum soft-top duration means
the maximum amount of time that a
vehicle could operate above the default
speed limit.
(4) Certified VSL means a VSL
configuration that applies when a
vehicle is new and until it expires.
(5) Expiration point means the
mileage at which a vehicle’s certified
VSL expires (or the point at which
tamper protections expire).
(6) Effective speed limit has the
meaning given in paragraph (d) of this
section.
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(c) Adjustments. You may design your
VSL to be adjustable; however, this may
affect the value you use in GEM.
(1) Except as specified in paragraph
(c)(2) of this section, any adjustments
that can be made to the engine, vehicle,
or their controls that change the VSL’s
actual speed limit are considered to be
adjustable operating parameters.
Compliance is based on the vehicle
being adjusted to the highest speed limit
within this range.
(2) The following adjustments are not
adjustable parameters:
(i) Adjustments made only to account
for changing tire size or final drive ratio.
(ii) Adjustments protected by
encrypted controls or passwords.
(iii) Adjustments possible only after
the VSL’s expiration point.
(d) Effective speed limit. (1) For VSLs
without soft tops or expiration points
that expire before 1,259,000 miles, the
effective speed limit is the highest speed
limit that results by adjusting the VSL
or other vehicle parameters consistent
with the provisions of paragraph (c) of
this section.
(2) For VSLs with soft tops and/or
expiration points, the effective speed
limit is calculated as specified in this
paragraph (d)(2), which is based on 10
hours of operation per day (394 miles
per day for day cabs and 551 miles per
day for sleeper cabs). Note that this
calculation assumes that a fraction of
this operation is speed limited (3.9
hours and 252 miles for day cabs, and
7.3 hours and 474 miles for sleeper
cabs). Use the following equation to
calculate the effective speed limit,
rounded to the nearest 0.1 mph:
Effective speed = ExF · [STF · STSL +
(1-STF) · DSL] + (1-ExF) · 65 mph
Where:
ExF = expiration point miles/1,259,000
miles.
STF = the maximum number of allowable
soft top operation hours per day/3.9
hours for day cabs (or maximum miles
per day/252), or the maximum number of
allowable soft top operation hours per
day/7.3 hours for sleeper cabs (or
maximum miles per day/474).
STSL = the soft top speed limit.
DSL = the default speed limit.
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§ 1037.645 In-use compliance with family
emission limits (FELs).
Section 1037.225 describes how to
change the FEL for a vehicle family
during the model year. This section,
which describes how you may ask us to
increase a vehicle family’s FEL after the
end of the model year, is intended to
address circumstances in which it is in
the public interest to apply a higher inuse FEL based on forfeiting an
appropriate number of emission credits.
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(a) You may ask us to increase a
vehicle family’s FEL after the end of the
model year if you believe some of your
in-use vehicles exceed the CO2 FEL that
applied during the model year (or the
CO2 emission standard if the family did
not generate or use emission credits).
We may consider any available
information in making our decision to
approve or deny your request.
(b) If we approve your request under
this section, you must apply emission
credits to cover the increased FEL for all
affected vehicles. Apply the emission
credits as part of your credit
demonstration for the current
production year. Include the
appropriate calculations in your final
report under § 1037.730.
(c) Submit your request to the
Designated Compliance Officer. Include
the following in your request:
(1) Identify the names of each vehicle
family that is the subject of your
request. Include separate family names
for different model years.
(2) Describe why your request does
not apply for similar vehicle models or
additional model years, as applicable.
(3) Identify the FEL that applied
during the model year for each
configuration and recommend
replacement FELs for in-use vehicles;
include a supporting rationale to
describe how you determined the
recommended replacement FELs.
(4) Describe whether the needed
emission credits will come from
averaging, banking, or trading.
(d) If we approve your request, we
will identify one or more replacement
FELs, as follows:
(1) Where your vehicle family
includes more than one sub-family with
different FELs, we may apply a higher
FEL within the family than was applied
to the vehicle’s configuration in your
final ABT report. For example, if your
vehicle family included three subfamilies, with FELs of 200 g/ton-mile,
210 g/ton-mile, and 220 g/ton-mile, we
may apply a 220 g/ton-mile in-use FEL
to vehicles that were originally
designated as part of the 200 g/ton-mile
or 210 g/ton-mile sub-families.
(2) Without regard to the number of
sub-families in your certified vehicle
family, we may specify one or more new
sub-families with higher FELs than you
included in your final ABT report. We
may apply these higher FELs as in-use
FELs for your vehicles. For example, if
your vehicle family included three subfamilies, with FELs of 200 g/ton-mile,
210 g/ton-mile, and 220 g/ton-mile, we
may specify a new 230 g/ton-mile subfamily.
(3) Our selected values for the
replacement FEL will reflect our best
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judgment to accurately reflect the actual
in-use performance of your vehicles,
consistent with the testing provisions
specified in this part.
(4) We may apply the higher FELs to
other vehicle families from the same or
different model years to the extent they
used equivalent emission controls. We
may include any appropriate conditions
with our approval.
(e) If we order a recall for a vehicle
family under 40 CFR 1068.505, we will
no longer approve a replacement FEL
under this section for any of your
vehicles from that vehicle family, or
from any other vehicle family that relies
on equivalent emission controls.
§ 1037.650
Tire manufacturers.
This section describes how the
requirements of this part apply with
respect to tire manufacturers that choose
to provide test data or emission
warranties for purposes of this part.
(a) Testing. You are responsible as
follows for test tires and emission test
results that you provide to vehicle
manufacturers for the purpose of the
manufacturer submitting them to EPA
for certification under this part:
(1) Such test results are deemed under
§ 1037.825 to be submissions to EPA.
This means that you may be subject to
criminal penalties under 18 U.S.C. 1001
if you knowingly submit false test
results to the manufacturer.
(2) You may not cause a vehicle
manufacturer to violate the regulations
by rendering inaccurate emission test
results you provide (or emission test
results from testing of test tires you
provide) to the vehicle manufacturer.
(3) Your provision of test tires and
emission test results to vehicle
manufacturers for the purpose of
certifying under this part is deemed to
be an agreement to provide tires to EPA
for confirmatory testing under
§ 1037.201.
(b) Warranty. You may contractually
agree to process emission warranty
claims on behalf of the manufacturer
certifying the vehicle with respect to
tires you produce.
(1) Your fulfillment of the warranty
requirements of this part is deemed to
fulfill the vehicle manufacturer’s
warranty obligations under this part
with respect to tires you warrant.
(2) You may not cause a vehicle
manufacturer to violate the regulations
by failing to fulfill the emission
warranty requirements that you
contractually agreed to fulfill.
§ 1037.655 Post-useful life vehicle
modifications.
This section specifies vehicle
modifications that may occur in certain
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circumstances after a vehicle reaches
the end of its regulatory useful life. It
does not apply with respect to
modifications that occur within the
useful life period. It also does not apply
with respect to engine modifications or
recalibrations. Note that many such
modifications to the vehicle during the
useful life and to the engine at any time
are presumed to violate 42 U.S.C.
7522(a)(3)(A).
(a) General. Except as allowed by this
section, it is prohibited for any person
to remove or render inoperative any
emission control device installed to
comply with the requirements of this
part 1037.
(b) Allowable modifications. You may
modify a vehicle for the purpose of
reducing emissions, provided you have
a reasonable technical basis for knowing
that such modification will not increase
emissions of any other pollutant.
Reasonable technical basis has the
meaning given in 40 CFR 1068.30. This
generally requires you to have
information that would lead an engineer
or other person familiar with engine and
vehicle design and function to
reasonably believe that the
modifications will not increase
emissions of any regulated pollutant.
(c) Examples of allowable
modifications. The following are
examples of allowable modifications:
(1) It is generally allowable to remove
tractor roof fairings after the end of the
vehicle’s useful life if the vehicle will
no longer be used primarily to pull box
trailers.
(2) Other fairings may be removed
after the end of the vehicle’s useful life
if the vehicle will no longer be used
significantly on highways with vehicle
speed of 55 miles per hour or higher.
(d) Examples of prohibited
modifications. The following are
examples of modifications that are not
allowable:
(1) No person may disable a vehicle
speed limiter prior to its expiration
point.
(2) No person may remove
aerodynamic fairings from tractors that
are used primarily to pull box trailers on
highways.
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§ 1037.660
systems.
Automatic engine shutdown
This section specifies requirements
that apply for certified automatic engine
shutdown (AES) systems modeled
under § 1037.520. It does not apply for
AES systems you do not model under
§ 1037.520.
(a) Minimum requirements. Your AES
system must meet all of the
requirements of this paragraph (a) to be
modeled under § 1037.520. The system
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must shut down the engine within 300
seconds when all the following
conditions are met:
(1) The transmission is set in neutral
with the parking brake engaged (or the
transmission is set to park if so
equipped).
(2) The operator has not reset the
system timer within the 300 seconds by
changing the position of the accelerator,
brake, or clutch pedal; or by some other
mechanism we approve.
(3) None of the override conditions of
paragraph (b) of this section are met.
(b) Override conditions. The system
may delay shutting the engine down
while any of the conditions of this
paragraph (b) apply. Engines equipped
with auto restart may restart during
override conditions. Note that these
conditions allow the system to delay
shutdown or restart, but do not allow it
to reset the timer. The system may delay
shutdown—
(1) While an exhaust emission control
device is regenerating. The period
considered to be regeneration for
purposes of this allowance must be
consistent with good engineering
judgment and may differ in length from
the period considered to be regeneration
for other purposes. For example, in
some cases it may be appropriate to
include a cool down period for this
purpose but not for infrequent
regeneration adjustment factors.
(2) If necessary while servicing the
vehicle, provided the deactivation of the
AES system is accomplished using a
diagnostic scan tool. The system must
be automatically reactivated when the
engine is shutdown for more than 60
minutes.
(3) If the vehicle’s main battery stateof-charge is not sufficient to allow the
main engine to be restarted.
(4) If the external ambient
temperature reaches a level below
which or above which the cabin
temperature cannot be maintained
within reasonable heat or cold exposure
threshold limit values for the health and
safety of the operator (not merely
comfort).
(5) If the vehicle’s engine coolant
temperature is too low according to the
manufacturer’s engine protection
guidance. This may also apply for fuel
or oil temperatures. This allows the
engine to continue operating until it
reaches a predefined temperature at
which the shutdown sequence of
paragraph (a) of this section would
resume.
(6) The system may delay shutdown
while the vehicle’s main engine is
operating in power take-off (PTO) mode.
For purposes of this paragraph (b)(6), an
engine is considered to be in PTO mode
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when a switch or setting designating
PTO mode is enabled.
(c) Adjustments to AES systems. (1)
The AES system may include an
expiration point (in miles) after which
the AES system may be disabled. If your
vehicle is equipped with an AES system
that expires before 1,259,000 miles,
adjust the model input as follows,
rounded to the nearest 0.1 g/ton-mile:
AES Input = 5 g CO2/ton-mile × (miles
at expiration/1,259,000 miles).
(2) For AES systems designed to limit
idling to a specific number of hours less
than 1,800 hours over any 12-month
period, calculate an adjusted AES input
using the following equation, rounded
to the nearest 0.1 g/ton-mile: AES Input
= 5 g CO2/ton-mile × (1 ¥ (maximum
allowable number of idling hours per
year/1,800 hours)). This is an annual
allowance that starts when the vehicle
is new and resets every 12 months after
that. Manufacturers may propose an
alternative method based on operating
hours or miles instead of years.
(d) Adjustable parameters. Provisions
that apply generally with respect to
adjustable parameters also apply to the
AES system operating parameters,
except the following are not considered
to be adjustable parameters:
(1) Accelerator, brake, and clutch
pedals, with respect to resetting the idle
timer. Parameters associated with other
timer reset mechanisms we approve are
also not adjustable parameters.
(2) Bypass parameters allowed for
vehicle service under paragraph (b)(2) of
this section.
(3) Parameters that are adjustable only
after the expiration point.
§ 1037.665
In-use tractor testing.
Manufacturers with U.S.-directed
production volumes of greater than
20,000 tractors must perform in-use
testing as described in this section.
(a) The following test requirements
apply beginning in model year 2021:
(1) Each year, select for testing three
sleeper cabs and two day cabs certified
to Phase 1 or Phase 2 standards. If we
do not identify certain vehicle
configurations for your testing, select
models that you project to be among
your 12 highest-selling vehicle
configurations for the given year.
(2) Set up the tractors on a chassis
dynamometer and operate them over all
applicable duty cycles from
§ 1037.510(a). You may use emissionmeasurement systems meeting the
specifications of 40 CFR part 1065,
subpart J. Calculate coefficients for the
road-load force equation as described in
Section 10 of SAE J1263 or Section 11
of SAE J2263 (both incorporated by
reference in § 1037.810). Use standard
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payload. Measure emissions of NOX,
PM, CO, NMHC, CO2, CH4, and N2O.
Determine emission levels in g/hour for
the idle test and g/ton-mile for other
duty cycles.
(b) Send us an annual report with
your test results for each duty cycle and
the corresponding GEM results. We may
make your test data publicly available.
Subpart H—Averaging, Banking, and
Trading for Certification
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§ 1037.701
General provisions.
(a) You may average, bank, and trade
emission credits for purposes of
certification as described in this subpart
and in subpart B of this part to show
compliance with the standards of
§§ 1037.105 through 1037.107.
Participation in this program is
voluntary.
(b) The definitions of Subpart I of this
part apply to this subpart. The following
definitions also apply:
(1) Actual emission credits means
emission credits you have generated
that we have verified by reviewing your
final report.
(2) Averaging set means a set of
vehicles in which emission credits may
be exchanged. Credits generated by one
vehicle may only be used by other
vehicles in the same averaging set. Note
that an averaging set may comprise
more than one regulatory subcategory.
See § 1037.740.
(3) Broker means any entity that
facilitates a trade of emission credits
between a buyer and seller.
(4) Buyer means the entity that
receives emission credits as a result of
a trade.
(5) Reserved emission credits means
emission credits you have generated
that we have not yet verified by
reviewing your final report.
(6) Seller means the entity that
provides emission credits during a
trade.
(7) Standard means the emission
standard that applies under subpart B of
this part for vehicles not participating in
the ABT program of this subpart.
(8) Trade means to exchange emission
credits, either as a buyer or seller.
(c) Emission credits may be
exchanged only within an averaging set
as specified in § 1037.740.
(d) You may not use emission credits
generated under this subpart to offset
any emissions that exceed an FEL or
standard, except as allowed by
§ 1037.645.
(e) You may use either of the
following approaches to retire or forego
emission credits:
(1) You may trade emission credits
generated from any number of your
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vehicles to the vehicle purchasers or
other parties to retire the credits.
Identify any such credits in the reports
described in § 1037.730. Vehicles must
comply with the applicable FELs even
if you donate or sell the corresponding
emission credits under this paragraph
(e). Those credits may no longer be used
by anyone to demonstrate compliance
with any EPA emission standards.
(2) You may certify a family using an
FEL below the emission standard as
described in this part and choose not to
generate emission credits for that
family. If you do this, you do not need
to calculate emission credits for those
families and you do not need to submit
or keep the associated records described
in this subpart for that family.
(f) Emission credits may be used in
the model year they are generated.
Surplus emission credits may be banked
for future model years. Surplus
emission credits may sometimes be used
for past model years, as described in
§ 1037.745.
(g) You may increase or decrease an
FEL during the model year by amending
your application for certification under
§ 1037.225. The new FEL may apply
only to vehicles you have not already
introduced into commerce.
(h) See § 1037.740 for special credit
provisions that apply for credits
generated under § 1037.104(d)(7),
§ 1037.615 or 40 CFR 1036.615.
(i) Unless the regulations explicitly
allow it, you may not calculate credits
more than once for any emission
reduction. For example, if you generate
CO2 emission credits for a given hybrid
vehicle under this part, no one may
generate CO2 emission credits for the
hybrid engine under 40 CFR part 1036.
However, credits could be generated for
identical engine used in vehicles that
did not generate credits under this part.
(j) You may use emission credits
generated under the Phase 1 standards
when certifying vehicles to Phase 2
standards. No credit adjustments are
required other than corrections for
different useful lives.
§ 1037.705 Generating and calculating
emission credits.
(a) The provisions of this section
apply separately for calculating
emission credits for each pollutant.
(b) For each participating family or
subfamily, calculate positive or negative
emission credits relative to the
otherwise applicable emission standard.
Calculate positive emission credits for a
family or subfamily that has an FEL
below the standard. Calculate negative
emission credits for a family or
subfamily that has an FEL above the
standard. Sum your positive and
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negative credits for the model year
before rounding. Round the sum of
emission credits to the nearest
megagram (Mg), using consistent units
with the following equation:
Emission credits (Mg) = (Std–FEL) · (PL)
· (Volume) · (UL) · (10-6)
Where:
Std = the emission standard associated with
the specific regulatory subcategory (g/
ton-mile).
FEL = the family emission limit for the
vehicle subfamily (g/ton-mile).
PL = standard payload, in tons.
Volume = U.S.-directed production volume
of the vehicle subfamily. For example, if
you produce three configurations with
the same FEL, the subfamily production
volume would be the sum of the
production volumes for these three
configurations.
UL = useful life of the vehicle, in miles, as
described in § 1037.105 and § 1037.106.
Use 250,000 miles for trailers.
(c) As described in § 1037.730,
compliance with the requirements of
this subpart is determined at the end of
the model year based on actual U.S.directed production volumes. Keep
appropriate records to document these
production volumes. Do not include any
of the following vehicles to calculate
emission credits:
(1) Vehicles that you do not certify to
the CO2 standards of this part because
they are permanently exempted under
subpart G of this part or under 40 CFR
part 1068.
(2) Exported vehicles.
(3) Vehicles not subject to the
requirements of this part, such as those
excluded under § 1037.5.
(4) Any other vehicles, where we
indicate elsewhere in this part 1037 that
they are not to be included in the
calculations of this subpart.
§ 1037.710
Averaging.
(a) Averaging is the exchange of
emission credits among your vehicle
families. You may average emission
credits only within the same averaging
set.
(b) You may certify one or more
vehicle families (or subfamilies) to an
FEL above the applicable standard,
subject to any applicable FEL caps and
other provisions in subpart B of this
part, if you show in your application for
certification that your projected balance
of all emission-credit transactions in
that model year is greater than or equal
to zero or that a negative balance is
allowed under § 1037.745.
(c) If you certify a vehicle family to an
FEL that exceeds the otherwise
applicable standard, you must obtain
enough emission credits to offset the
vehicle family’s deficit by the due date
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for the final report required in
§ 1037.730. The emission credits used to
address the deficit may come from your
other vehicle families that generate
emission credits in the same model year
(or from later model years as specified
in § 1037.745), from emission credits
you have banked from previous model
years, or from emission credits
generated in the same or previous model
years that you obtained through trading.
Note that the option for using banked or
traded credits does not apply for
trailers.
§ 1037.715
Banking.
(a) Banking is the retention of surplus
emission credits by the manufacturer
generating the emission credits for use
in future model years for averaging or
trading. Note that § 1037.107 does not
allow banking for trailers.
(b) You may designate any emission
credits you plan to bank in the reports
you submit under § 1037.730 as
reserved credits. During the model year
and before the due date for the final
report, you may designate your reserved
emission credits for averaging or
trading.
(c) Reserved credits become actual
emission credits when you submit your
final report. However, we may revoke
these emission credits if we are unable
to verify them after reviewing your
reports or auditing your records.
(d) Banked credits retain the
designation of the averaging set in
which they were generated.
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§ 1037.720
Trading.
(a) Trading is the exchange of
emission credits between
manufacturers, or the transfer of credits
to another party to retire them. You may
use traded emission credits for
averaging, banking, or further trading
transactions. Traded emission credits
remain subject to the averaging-set
restrictions based on the averaging set in
which they were generated. Note that
§ 1037.107 does not allow trading for
trailers.
(b) You may trade actual emission
credits as described in this subpart. You
may also trade reserved emission
credits, but we may revoke these
emission credits based on our review of
your records or reports or those of the
company with which you traded
emission credits. You may trade banked
credits within an averaging set to any
certifying manufacturer.
(c) If a negative emission credit
balance results from a transaction, both
the buyer and seller are liable, except in
cases we deem to involve fraud. See
§ 1037.255(e) for cases involving fraud.
We may void the certificates of all
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vehicle families participating in a trade
that results in a manufacturer having a
negative balance of emission credits.
See § 1037.745.
§ 1037.725 What must I include in my
application for certification?
(a) You must declare in your
application for certification your intent
to use the provisions of this subpart for
each vehicle family that will be certified
using the ABT program. You must also
declare the FELs you select for the
vehicle family or subfamily for each
pollutant for which you are using the
ABT program. Your FELs must comply
with the specifications of subpart B of
this part, including the FEL caps. FELs
must be expressed to the same number
of decimal places as the applicable
standards.
(b) Include the following in your
application for certification:
(1) A statement that, to the best of
your belief, you will not have a negative
balance of emission credits for any
averaging set when all emission credits
are calculated at the end of the year; or
a statement that you will have a
negative balance of emission credits for
one or more averaging sets but that it is
allowed under § 1037.745.
(2) Calculations of projected emission
credits (positive or negative) based on
projected U.S.-directed production
volumes. We may require you to include
similar calculations from your other
vehicle families to project your net
credit balances for the model year. If
you project negative emission credits for
a family or subfamily, state the source
of positive emission credits you expect
to use to offset the negative emission
credits.
§ 1037.730
ABT reports.
(a) If any of your vehicle families are
certified using the ABT provisions of
this subpart, you must send a final
report by March 31 following the end of
the model year. You may ask us to
extend the deadline for the final report
to April 30.
(b) Your final report must include the
following information for each vehicle
family participating in the ABT
program:
(1) Vehicle-family and subfamily
designations, and averaging set.
(2) The regulatory subcategory and
emission standards that would
otherwise apply to the vehicle family.
(3) The FEL for each pollutant. If you
change the FEL after the start of
production, identify the date that you
started using the new FEL and/or give
the vehicle identification number for the
first vehicle covered by the new FEL. In
this case, identify each applicable FEL
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and calculate the positive or negative
emission credits as specified in
§ 1037.225.
(4) The projected and actual U.S.directed production volumes for the
model year. If you changed an FEL
during the model year, identify the
actual U.S.-directed production volume
associated with each FEL.
(5) Useful life.
(6) Calculated positive or negative
emission credits for the whole vehicle
family. Identify any emission credits
that you traded, as described in
paragraph (d)(1) of this section.
(7) If you have a negative credit
balance for the averaging set in the
given model year, specify whether the
vehicle family (or certain subfamilies
with the vehicle family) have a credit
deficit for the year. Consider for
example, a manufacturer with three
vehicle families (‘‘A’’, ‘‘B’’, and ‘‘C’’) in
a given averaging set. If family A
generates enough credits to offset the
negative credits of family B but not
enough to also offset the negative credits
of family C (and the manufacturer has
no banked credits in the averaging set),
the manufacturer may designate families
A and B as having no deficit for the
model year, provided it designates
family C as having a deficit for the
model year.
(c) Your final report must include the
following additional information:
(1) Show that your net balance of
emission credits from all your
participating vehicle families in each
averaging set in the applicable model
year is not negative, except as allowed
under § 1037.745. Your credit tracking
must account for the limitation on credit
life under § 1037.40(c).
(2) State whether you will retain any
emission credits for banking. If you
choose to retire emission credits that
would otherwise be eligible for banking,
identify the families that generated the
emission credits, including the number
of emission credits from each family.
(3) State that the report’s contents are
accurate.
(4) Identify the technologies that make
up the certified configuration associated
with each vehicle identification
number. You may identify this as a
range of identification numbers for
vehicles involving a single, identical
certified configuration.
(d) If you trade emission credits, you
must send us a report within 90 days
after the transaction, as follows:
(1) As the seller, you must include the
following information in your report:
(i) The corporate names of the buyer
and any brokers.
(ii) A copy of any contracts related to
the trade.
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(iii) The vehicle families that
generated emission credits for the trade,
including the number of emission
credits from each family.
(2) As the buyer, you must include the
following information in your report:
(i) The corporate names of the seller
and any brokers.
(ii) A copy of any contracts related to
the trade.
(iii) How you intend to use the
emission credits, including the number
of emission credits you intend to apply
to each vehicle family (if known).
(e) Send your reports electronically to
the Designated Compliance Officer
using an approved information format.
If you want to use a different format,
send us a written request with
justification for a waiver.
(f) Correct errors in your final report
as follows:
(1) If you or we determine before the
due date for the final report that errors
mistakenly decreased your balance of
emission credits, you may correct the
errors and recalculate the balance of
emission credits. You may not make
these corrections for errors that are
determined after the due date for the
final report. If you report a negative
balance of emission credits, we may
disallow corrections under this
paragraph (f)(1).
(2) If you or we determine anytime
that errors mistakenly increased your
balance of emission credits, you must
correct the errors and recalculate the
balance of emission credits.
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§ 1037.735
Recordkeeping.
(a) You must organize and maintain
your records as described in this
section.
(b) Keep the records required by this
section for at least eight years after the
due date for the final report. You may
not use emission credits for any vehicles
if you do not keep all the records
required under this section. You must
therefore keep these records to continue
to bank valid credits.
(c) Keep a copy of the reports we
require in §§ 1037.725 and 1037.730.
(d) Keep records of the vehicle
identification number for each vehicle
you produce. You may identify these
numbers as a range. If you change the
FEL after the start of production,
identify the date you started using each
FEL and the range of vehicle
identification numbers associated with
each FEL. You must also identify the
purchaser and destination for each
vehicle you produce to the extent this
information is available.
(e) We may require you to keep
additional records or to send us relevant
information not required by this section
in accordance with the Clean Air Act.
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§ 1037.740
credits.
Restrictions for using emission
The following restrictions apply for
using emission credits:
(a) Averaging sets. Except as specified
in paragraph (b) of this section,
emission credits may be exchanged only
within an averaging set. The following
principal averaging sets apply for
vehicles subject to this subpart:
(1) Class 2b through 5 vehicles that
are subject to the standards of
§ 1037.105.
(2) Class 6 and 7 vehicles.
(3) Class 8 vehicles.
(4) Long box van trailers.
(5) Short box van trailers.
(6) Long refrigerated box van trailers.
(7) Short refrigerated box van trailers.
(8) Note that other separate averaging
sets also apply for emission credits not
related to this part. For example,
vehicles certified to the greenhouse gas
standards of 40 CFR 86.1819 comprise
a single averaging set. Separate
averaging sets also apply for engines
under 40 CFR part 1036, including
engines used in vehicles subject to this
subpart.
(b) Credits from hybrid vehicles and
other advanced technologies. Credits
you generate under § 1037.615 in Phase
1 may be used for any of the averaging
sets identified in paragraph (a) of this
section; you may also use those credits
to demonstrate compliance with the CO2
emission standards in 40 CFR 86.1819
and 40 CFR part 1036. Similarly, you
may use advanced-technology credits
generated under 40 CFR 86.1819–
14(k)(7) or 40 CFR 1036.615 to
demonstrate compliance with the CO2
standards in this part.
(1) The maximum amount of credits
you may bring into the following service
class groups is 60,000 Mg per model
year:
(i) Spark-ignition engines, light heavyduty compression-ignition engines, and
light heavy-duty vehicles. This group
comprises the averaging set listed in
paragraphs (a)(1) of this section and the
averaging set listed in 40 CFR
1036.740(a)(1) and (2).
(ii) Medium heavy-duty compressionignition engines and medium heavyduty vehicles. This group comprises the
averaging sets listed in paragraph (a)(2)
of this section and 40 CFR
1036.740(a)(3).
(iii) Heavy heavy-duty compressionignition engines and heavy heavy-duty
vehicles. This group comprises the
averaging sets listed in paragraph (a)(3)
of this section and 40 CFR
1036.740(a)(4).
(2) Paragraph (b)(1) of this section
does not limit the advanced technology
credits that can be used within a service
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class group if they were generated in
that same service class group.
(c) Credit life. Banked credits may be
used only for five model years after the
year in which they are generated. For
example, credits you generate in model
year 2018 may be used to demonstrate
compliance with emission standards
only through model year 2023.
(d) Other restrictions. Other sections
of this part specify additional
restrictions for using emission credits
under certain special provisions.
§ 1037.745
End-of-year CO2 credit deficits.
Except as allowed by this section, we
may void the certificate of any vehicle
family certified to an FEL above the
applicable standard for which you do
not have sufficient credits by the
deadline for submitting the final report.
(a) Your certificate for a vehicle
family for which you do not have
sufficient CO2 credits will not be void
if you remedy the deficit with surplus
credits within three model years (this
applies equally for tractors, trailers, and
vocational vehicles). For example, if you
have a credit deficit of 500 Mg for a
vehicle family at the end of model year
2015, you must generate (or otherwise
obtain) a surplus of at least 500 Mg in
that same averaging set by the end of
model year 2018.
(b) You may not bank or trade away
CO2 credits in the averaging set in any
model year in which you have a deficit.
(c) You may apply only surplus
credits to your deficit. You may not
apply credits to a deficit from an earlier
model year if they were generated in a
model year for which any of your
vehicle families for that averaging set
had an end-of-year credit deficit.
(d) If you do not remedy the deficit
with surplus credits within three model
years, we may void your certificate for
that vehicle family. Note that voiding a
certificate applies ab initio. Where the
net deficit is less than the total amount
of negative credits originally generated
by the family, we will void the
certificate only with respect to the
number of vehicles needed to reach the
amount of the net deficit. For example,
if the original vehicle family generated
500 Mg of negative credits, and the
manufacturer’s net deficit after three
years was 250 Mg, we would void the
certificate with respect to half of the
vehicles in the family.
(e) For purposes of calculating the
statute of limitations, the following
actions are all considered to occur at the
expiration of the deadline for offsetting
a deficit as specified in paragraph (a) of
this section:
(1) Failing to meet the requirements of
paragraph (a) of this section.
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(2) Failing to satisfy the conditions
upon which a certificate was issued
relative to offsetting a deficit.
(3) Selling, offering for sale,
introducing or delivering into U.S.
commerce, or importing vehicles that
are found not to be covered by a
certificate as a result of failing to offset
a deficit.
§ 1037.750 What can happen if I do not
comply with the provisions of this subpart?
(a) For each vehicle family
participating in the ABT program, the
certificate of conformity is conditioned
upon full compliance with the
provisions of this subpart during and
after the model year. You are
responsible to establish to our
satisfaction that you fully comply with
applicable requirements. We may void
the certificate of conformity for a
vehicle family if you fail to comply with
any provisions of this subpart.
(b) You may certify your vehicle
family or subfamily to an FEL above an
applicable standard based on a
projection that you will have enough
emission credits to offset the deficit for
the vehicle family. See § 1037.745 for
provisions specifying what happens if
you cannot show in your final report
that you have enough actual emission
credits to offset a deficit for any
pollutant in a vehicle family.
(c) We may void the certificate of
conformity for a vehicle family if you
fail to keep records, send reports, or give
us information we request. Note that
failing to keep records, send reports, or
give us information we request is also a
violation of 42 U.S.C. 7522(a)(2).
(d) You may ask for a hearing if we
void your certificate under this section
(see § 1037.820).
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§ 1037.755 Information provided to the
Department of Transportation.
After receipt of each manufacturer’s
final report as specified in § 1037.730
and completion of any verification
testing required to validate the
manufacturer’s submitted final data, we
will issue a report to the Department of
Transportation with CO2 emission
information and will verify the accuracy
of each manufacturer’s equivalent fuel
consumption data required by NHTSA
under 49 CFR 535.8. We will send a
report to DOT for each vehicle
manufacturer based on each regulatory
category and subcategory, including
sufficient information for NHTSA to
determine fuel consumption and
associated credit values. See 49 CFR
535.8 to determine if NHTSA deems
submission of this information to EPA
to also be a submission to NHTSA.
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Subpart I—Definitions and Other
Reference Information
§ 1037.801
Definitions.
The following definitions apply to
this part. The definitions apply to all
subparts unless we note otherwise. All
undefined terms have the meaning the
Act gives to them. The definitions
follow:
Act means the Clean Air Act, as
amended, 42 U.S.C. 7401–7671q.
Adjustable parameter means any
device, system, or element of design that
someone can adjust (including those
which are difficult to access) and that,
if adjusted, may affect measured or
modeled emissions (as applicable). You
may ask us to exclude a parameter that
is difficult to access if it cannot be
adjusted to affect emissions without
significantly degrading vehicle
performance, or if you otherwise show
us that it will not be adjusted in a way
that affects emissions during in-use
operation.
Adjusted Loaded Vehicle Weight
means the numerical average of vehicle
curb weight and GVWR.
Advanced technology means vehicle
technology certified under 40 CFR
86.1819–14(k)(7), 40 CFR 1036.615, or
§ 1037.615.
Aftertreatment means relating to a
catalytic converter, particulate filter, or
any other system, component, or
technology mounted downstream of the
exhaust valve (or exhaust port) whose
design function is to decrease emissions
in the vehicle exhaust before it is
exhausted to the environment. Exhaustgas recirculation (EGR) and
turbochargers are not aftertreatment.
Aircraft means any vehicle capable of
sustained air travel more than 100 feet
off the ground.
Alcohol-fueled vehicle means a
vehicle that is designed to run using an
alcohol fuel. For purposes of this
definition, alcohol fuels do not include
fuels with a nominal alcohol content
below 25 percent by volume.
Alternative fuel conversion has the
meaning given for clean alternative fuel
conversion in 40 CFR 85.502.
Ambulance has the meaning given in
40 CFR 86.1803.
Amphibious vehicle means a motor
vehicle that is also designed for
operation on water.
A to B testing means testing
performed in pairs to allow comparison
of two vehicles or other test articles.
Back-to-back tests are performed on
Article A and Article B, changing only
the variable(s) of interest for the two
tests.
Automatic tire inflation system means
a system installed on a vehicle to keep
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each tire inflated to within 10 percent
of the target value with no operator
input.
Auxiliary emission control device
means any element of design that senses
temperature, motive speed, engine rpm,
transmission gear, or any other
parameter for the purpose of activating,
modulating, delaying, or deactivating
the operation of any part of the emission
control system.
Averaging set has the meaning given
in § 1037.701.
Axle ratio or Drive axle ratio, ka,
means the dimensionless number
representing the angular speed of the
transmission output shaft divided by the
angular speed of the drive axle.
Basic vehicle frontal area means the
area enclosed by the geometric
projection of the basic vehicle along the
longitudinal axis onto a plane
perpendicular to the longitudinal axis of
the vehicle, including tires but
excluding mirrors and air deflectors.
Calibration means the set of
specifications and tolerances specific to
a particular design, version, or
application of a component or assembly
capable of functionally describing its
operation over its working range.
Carryover means relating to
certification based on emission data
generated from an earlier model year.
Certification means relating to the
process of obtaining a certificate of
conformity for a vehicle family that
complies with the emission standards
and requirements in this part.
Certified emission level means the
highest deteriorated emission level in a
vehicle subfamily for a given pollutant
from either transient or steady-state
testing.
Class means relating to GVWR classes
for vehicles other than trailers, as
follows:
(1) Class 2b means heavy-duty motor
vehicles at or below 10,000 pounds
GVWR.
(2) Class 3 means heavy-duty motor
vehicles above 10,000 pounds GVWR
but at or below 14,000 pounds GVWR.
(3) Class 4 means heavy-duty motor
vehicles above 14,000 pounds GVWR
but at or below 16,000 pounds GVWR.
(4) Class 5 means heavy-duty motor
vehicles above 16,000 pounds GVWR
but at or below 19,500 pounds GVWR.
(5) Class 6 means heavy-duty motor
vehicles above 19,500 pounds GVWR
but at or below 26,000 pounds GVWR.
(6) Class 7 means heavy-duty motor
vehicles above 26,000 pounds GVWR
but at or below 33,000 pounds GVWR.
(7) Class 8 means heavy-duty motor
vehicles above 33,000 pounds GVWR.
Complete vehicle has the meaning
given in the definition of vehicle in this
section.
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Compression-ignition has the meaning
given in § 1037.101.
Date of manufacture means the date
on which the certifying vehicle
manufacturer completes its
manufacturing operations, except as
follows:
(1) Where the certificate holder is an
engine manufacturer that does not
manufacture the chassis, the date of
manufacture of the vehicle is based on
the date assembly of the vehicle is
completed.
(2) We may approve an alternate date
of manufacture based on the date on
which the certifying (or primary)
manufacturer completes assembly at the
place of main assembly, consistent with
the provisions of § 1037.601 and 49 CFR
567.4.
Day cab means a type of tractor cab
that is not a sleeper cab or a heavy-haul
tractor cab.
Designated Compliance Officer means
one of the following:
(1) For compression-ignition engines,
Designated Compliance Officer means
Director, Diesel Engine Compliance
Center, U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency, 2000 Traverwood Drive, Ann
Arbor, MI 48105; complianceinfo@
epa.gov; epa.gov/otaq/verify.
(2) For spark-ignition engines,
Designated Compliance Officer means
Director, Gasoline Engine Compliance
Center, U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency, 2000 Traverwood Drive, Ann
Arbor, MI 48105; nonroad-si-cert@
epa.gov.
Deteriorated emission level means the
emission level that results from
applying the appropriate deterioration
factor to the official emission result of
the emission-data vehicle. Note that
where no deterioration factor applies,
references in this part to the
deteriorated emission level mean the
official emission result.
Deterioration factor means the
relationship between the highest
emissions during the useful life and
emissions at the low-hour test point,
expressed in one of the following ways:
(1) For multiplicative deterioration
factors, the ratio of the highest
emissions to emissions at the low-hour
test point.
(2) For additive deterioration factors,
the difference between the highest
emissions and emissions at the lowhour test point.
Driver model means an automated
controller that simulates a person
driving a vehicle.
Dual-fuel means relating to a vehicle
or engine designed for operation on two
different fuels but not on a continuous
mixture of those fuels. For purposes of
this part, such a vehicle or engine
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remains a dual-fuel vehicle or engine
even if it is designed for operation on
three or more different fuels.
Electric vehicle means a vehicle that
does not include an engine, and is
powered solely by an external source of
electricity and/or solar power. Note that
this does not include electric hybrid or
fuel-cell vehicles that use a chemical
fuel such as gasoline, diesel fuel, or
hydrogen. Electric vehicles may also be
referred to as all-electric vehicles to
distinguish them from hybrid vehicles.
Emergency vehicle means a vehicle
that is an ambulance or a fire truck.
Emission control system means any
device, system, or element of design that
controls or reduces the emissions of
regulated pollutants from a vehicle.
Emission-data component means a
vehicle component that is tested for
certification. This includes vehicle
components tested to establish
deterioration factors.
Emission-data vehicle means a
vehicle (or vehicle component) that is
tested for certification. This includes
vehicles tested to establish deterioration
factors.
Emission-related maintenance means
maintenance that substantially affects
emissions or is likely to substantially
affect emission deterioration.
Excluded means relating to vehicles
that are not subject to some or all of the
requirements of this part as follows:
(1) A vehicle that has been
determined not to be a ‘‘motor vehicle’’
is excluded from this part.
(2) Certain vehicles are excluded from
the requirements of this part under
§ 1037.5.
(3) Specific regulatory provisions of
this part may exclude a vehicle
generally subject to this part from one
or more specific standards or
requirements of this part.
Exempted has the meaning given in
40 CFR 1068.30.
Family emission limit (FEL) means an
emission level declared by the
manufacturer to serve in place of an
otherwise applicable emission standard
under the ABT program in subpart H of
this part. The family emission limit
must be expressed to the same number
of decimal places as the emission
standard it replaces. Note that an FEL
may apply as a ‘‘subfamily’’ emission
limit.
Final drive ratio, kd, means the
dimensionless number representing the
angular speed of the transmission input
shaft divided by the angular speed of
the drive axle when the vehicle is
operating in its highest available gear.
The final drive ratio is the transmission
gear ratio (in the highest available gear)
multiplied by the drive axle ratio.
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Fire truck has the meaning given in 40
CFR 86.1803.
Flexible-fuel means relating to an
engine designed for operation on any
mixture of two or more different fuels.
Fuel system means all components
involved in transporting, metering, and
mixing the fuel from the fuel tank to the
combustion chamber(s), including the
fuel tank, fuel pump, fuel filters, fuel
lines, carburetor or fuel-injection
components, and all fuel-system vents.
It also includes components for
controlling evaporative emissions, such
as fuel caps, purge valves, and carbon
canisters.
Fuel type means a general category of
fuels such as diesel fuel or natural gas.
There can be multiple grades within a
single fuel type, such as high-sulfur or
low-sulfur diesel fuel.
Gaseous fuel means a fuel that has a
boiling point below 20 °C.
Gear ratio or Transmission gear ratio,
kg, means the dimensionless number
representing the angular velocity of the
transmission’s input shaft divided by
the angular velocity of the
transmission’s output shaft when the
transmission is operating in a specific
gear.
Glider kit means any of the following:
(1) A new vehicle that is incomplete
because it lacks an engine, transmission,
or axle.
(2) A new vehicle produced with a
used engine (including a rebuilt or
remanufactured engine).
(3) Any other new equipment that is
intended to become a motor vehicle
with a previously used engine
(including a rebuilt or remanufactured
engine).
Glider vehicle means a new vehicle
produced with a used engine.
Good engineering judgment has the
meaning given in 40 CFR 1068.30. See
40 CFR 1068.5 for the administrative
process we use to evaluate good
engineering judgment.
Gross axle weight rating (GAWR)
means the value specified by the vehicle
manufacturer as the maximum weight of
a loaded axle or set of axles, consistent
with good engineering judgment.
Gross combination weight rating
(GCWR) means the value specified by
the vehicle manufacturer as the
maximum weight of a loaded vehicle
and trailer, consistent with good
engineering judgment. For example,
compliance with SAE J2807 is generally
considered to be consistent with good
engineering judgment, especially for
Class 3 and smaller vehicles.
Gross vehicle weight rating (GVWR)
means the value specified by the vehicle
manufacturer as the maximum design
loaded weight of a single vehicle,
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consistent with good engineering
judgment.
Heavy-duty engine means any engine
used for (or for which the engine
manufacturer could reasonably expect
to be used for) motive power in a heavyduty vehicle.
Heavy-duty vehicle means any trailer
and any other motor vehicle that has a
GVWR above 8,500 pounds, a curb
weight above 6,000 pounds, or a basic
vehicle frontal area greater than 45
square feet.
Heavy-haul tractor means a tractor
with GCWR above 120,000 pounds, a
total gear reduction at or above 57, and
a frame Resisting Bending Moment at or
above 2,000,000 in-lbs per rail, or per
rail and liner combination. Total gear
reduction is the transmission gear ratio
in the lowest gear multiplied by the
drive axle ratio. A heavy-haul tractor is
not a vocational tractor.
Hybrid engine or hybrid powertrain
means an engine or powertrain that
includes energy storage features other
than a conventional battery system or
conventional flywheel. Supplemental
electrical batteries and hydraulic
accumulators are examples of hybrid
energy storage systems. Note that certain
provisions in this part treat hybrid
engines and powertrains intended for
vehicles that include regenerative
braking different than those intended for
vehicles that do not include
regenerative braking.
Hybrid vehicle means a vehicle that
includes energy storage features (other
than a conventional battery system or
conventional flywheel) in addition to an
internal combustion engine or other
engine using consumable chemical fuel.
Supplemental electrical batteries and
hydraulic accumulators are examples of
hybrid energy storage systems Note that
certain provisions in this part treat
hybrid vehicles that include
regenerative braking different than those
that do not include regenerative braking.
Hydrocarbon (HC) means the
hydrocarbon group on which the
emission standards are based for each
fuel type. For alcohol-fueled vehicles,
HC means nonmethane hydrocarbon
equivalent (NMHCE) for exhaust
emissions and total hydrocarbon
equivalent (THCE) for evaporative
emissions. For all other vehicles, HC
means nonmethane hydrocarbon
(NMHC) for exhaust emissions and total
hydrocarbon (THC) for evaporative
emissions.
Identification number means a unique
specification (for example, a model
number/serial number combination)
that allows someone to distinguish a
particular vehicle from other similar
vehicles.
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Incomplete vehicle has the meaning
given in the definition of vehicle in this
section.
Innovative technology means
technology certified under § 1037.610.
Light-duty truck means any motor
vehicle rated at or below 8,500 pounds
GVWR with a curb weight at or below
6,000 pounds and basic vehicle frontal
area at or below 45 square feet, which
is:
(1) Designed primarily for purposes of
transportation of property or is a
derivation of such a vehicle; or
(2) Designed primarily for
transportation of persons and has a
capacity of more than 12 persons; or
(3) Available with special features
enabling off-street or off-highway
operation and use.
Light-duty vehicle means a passenger
car or passenger car derivative capable
of seating 12 or fewer passengers.
Low-mileage means relating to a
vehicle with stabilized emissions and
represents the undeteriorated emission
level. This would generally involve
approximately 4000 miles of operation.
Low rolling resistance tire means a tire
on a vocational vehicle with a TRRL at
or below of 7.7 kg/metric ton, a steer tire
on a tractor with a TRRL at or below 7.7
kg/metric ton, or a drive tire on a tractor
with a TRRL at or below 8.1 kg/metric
ton.
Manufacture means the physical and
engineering process of designing,
constructing, and/or assembling a
vehicle.
Manufacturer has the meaning given
in section 216(1) of the Act. In general,
this term includes any person who
manufactures or assembles a vehicle for
sale in the United States or otherwise
introduces a new motor vehicle into
commerce in the United States. This
includes importers who import vehicles
or vehicles for resale and entities that
assemble glider kits.
Medium-duty passenger vehicle
(MDPV) has the meaning given in 40
CFR 86.1803.
Model year means the manufacturer’s
annual new model production period,
except as restricted under this definition
and 40 CFR part 85, subpart X. It must
include January 1 of the calendar year
for which the model year is named, may
not begin before January 2 of the
previous calendar year, and it must end
by December 31 of the named calendar
year.
(1) The manufacturer who holds the
certificate of conformity for the vehicle
must assign the model year based on the
date when its manufacturing operations
are completed relative to its annual
model year period. In unusual
circumstances where completion of
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your assembly is delayed, we may allow
you to assign a model year one year
earlier, provided it does not affect
which regulatory requirements will
apply.
(2) Unless a vehicle is being shipped
to a secondary manufacturer that will
hold the certificate of conformity, the
model year must be assigned prior to
introduction of the vehicle into U.S.
commerce. The certifying manufacturer
must redesignate the model year if it
does not complete its manufacturing
operations within the originally
identified model year. A vehicle
introduced into U.S. commerce without
a model year is deemed to have a model
year equal to the calendar year of its
introduction into U.S. commerce unless
the certifying manufacturer assigns a
later date.
Motor vehicle has the meaning given
in 40 CFR 85.1703.
Multi-Purpose Duty Cycle has the
meaning given in § 1037.510.
New motor vehicle has the meaning
given in the Act. It generally means a
motor vehicle meeting the criteria of
either paragraph (1) or (2) of this
definition. New motor vehicles may be
complete or incomplete.
(1) A motor vehicle for which the
ultimate purchaser has never received
the equitable or legal title is a new motor
vehicle. This kind of vehicle might
commonly be thought of as ‘‘brand
new’’ although a new motor vehicle may
include previously used parts. For
example, vehicles commonly known as
‘‘glider kits’’ or ‘‘gliders’’ are new motor
vehicles. Under this definition, the
vehicle is new from the time it is
produced until the ultimate purchaser
receives the title or places it into
service, whichever comes first.
(2) An imported heavy-duty motor
vehicle originally produced after the
1969 model year is a new motor vehicle.
Noncompliant vehicle means a
vehicle that was originally covered by a
certificate of conformity, but is not in
the certified configuration or otherwise
does not comply with the conditions of
the certificate.
Nonconforming vehicle means a
vehicle not covered by a certificate of
conformity that would otherwise be
subject to emission standards.
Nonmethane hydrocarbon (NMHC)
means the sum of all hydrocarbon
species except methane, as measured
according to 40 CFR part 1065.
Nonmethane hydrocarbon equivalent
has the meaning given in 40 CFR
1065.1001.
Off-cycle technology means
technology certified under § 1037.610.
Official emission result means the
measured emission rate for an emission-
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data vehicle on a given duty cycle
before the application of any required
deterioration factor, but after the
applicability of regeneration adjustment
factors.
Owners manual means a document or
collection of documents prepared by the
vehicle manufacturer for the owners or
operators to describe appropriate
vehicle maintenance, applicable
warranties, and any other information
related to operating or keeping the
vehicle. The owners manual is typically
provided to the ultimate purchaser at
the time of sale.
Oxides of nitrogen has the meaning
given in 40 CFR 1065.1001.
Particulate trap means a filtering
device that is designed to physically
trap all particulate matter above a
certain size.
Percent has the meaning given in 40
CFR 1065.1001. Note that this means
percentages identified in this part are
assumed to be infinitely precise without
regard to the number of significant
figures. For example, one percent of
1,493 is 14.93.
Phase 1 means relating to the Phase
1 standards specified in §§ 1037.105 and
1037.106. Note that there are no Phase
1 standards for trailers. For example, a
vehicle subject to the Phase 1 standards
is a Phase 1 vehicle.
Phase 2 means relating to the Phase
2 standards specified in §§ 1037.105
through 1037.107.
Placed into service means put into
initial use for its intended purpose,
excluding incidental use by the
manufacturer or a dealer.
Power take-off (PTO) means a
secondary engine shaft (or equivalent)
that provides substantial auxiliary
power for purposes unrelated to vehicle
propulsion or normal vehicle
accessories such as air conditioning,
power steering, and basic electrical
accessories. A typical PTO uses a
secondary shaft on the engine to
transmit power to a hydraulic pump
that powers auxiliary equipment, such
as a boom on a bucket truck. You may
ask us to consider other equivalent
auxiliary power configurations (such as
those with hybrid vehicles) as power
take-off systems.
Preliminary approval means approval
granted by an authorized EPA
representative prior to submission of an
application for certification, consistent
with the provisions of § 1037.210.
Rechargeable Energy Storage System
(RESS) means the component(s) of a
hybrid engine or vehicle that store
recovered energy for later use, such as
the battery system in an electric hybrid
vehicle.
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Regional Duty Cycle has the meaning
given in § 1037.510.
Regulatory subcategory has the
meaning given in § 1037.230.
Relating to as used in this section
means relating to something in a
specific, direct manner. This expression
is used in this section only to define
terms as adjectives and not to broaden
the meaning of the terms.
Revoke has the meaning given in 40
CFR 1068.30.
Roof height means the maximum
height of a vehicle (rounded to the
nearest inch), excluding narrow
accessories such as exhaust pipes and
antennas, but including any wide
accessories such as roof fairings.
Measure roof height of the vehicle
configured to have its maximum height
that will occur during actual use, with
properly inflated tires and no driver,
passengers, or cargo onboard. Roof
height may also refer to the following
categories:
(1) Low-roof means relating to a
vehicle with a roof height of 120 inches
or less.
(2) Mid-roof means relating to a
vehicle with a roof height of 121 to 147
inches.
(3) High-roof means relating to a
vehicle with a roof height of 148 inches
or more.
Round has the meaning given in 40
CFR 1065.1001.
Scheduled maintenance means
adjusting, repairing, removing,
disassembling, cleaning, or replacing
components or systems periodically to
keep a part or system from failing,
malfunctioning, or wearing prematurely.
It also may mean actions you expect are
necessary to correct an overt indication
of failure or malfunction for which
periodic maintenance is not
appropriate.
Secondary vehicle manufacturer
anyone that produces a vehicle by
modifying a complete or partially
complete vehicle. For the purpose of
this definition, ‘‘modifying’’ does not
include making changes that do not
remove a vehicle from its original
certified configuration. This definition
applies whether the production involves
a complete or partially complete vehicle
and whether the vehicle was previously
certified to emission standards or not.
Manufacturers controlled by the
manufacturer of the base vehicle (or by
an entity that also controls the
manufacturer of the base vehicle) are
not secondary vehicle manufacturers;
rather, both entities are considered to be
one manufacturer for purposes of this
part.
Sleeper cab means a type of tractor
cab that has a compartment behind the
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driver’s seat intended to be used by the
driver for sleeping, and is not a heavyhaul tractor cab. This includes cabs
accessible from the driver’s
compartment and those accessible from
outside the vehicle.
Small manufacturer means a
manufacturer meeting the criteria
specified in 13 CFR 121.201. The
employee and revenue limits apply to
the total number employees and total
revenue together for affiliated
companies.
Spark-ignition has the meaning given
in § 1037.101.
Standard payload means the payload
assumed for each vehicle, in tons, for
modeling and calculating emission
credits, as follows:
(1) For vocational vehicles:
(i) 2.85 tons for light heavy-duty
vehicles.
(ii) 5.6 tons for medium heavy-duty
vehicles.
(iii) 7.5 tons for heavy heavy-duty
vehicles.
(2) For tractors:
(i) 12.5 tons for Class 7.
(ii) 19 tons for Class 8, other than
heavy-haul tractors.
(iii) 43 tons for heavy-haul tractors.
(3) For trailers:
(i) 10 tons for short box vans.
(ii) 19 tons for other trailers.
Standard tractor has the meaning
given in § 1037.501.
Standard trailer has the meaning
given in § 1037.501.
Suspend has the meaning given in 40
CFR 1068.30.
Test sample means the collection of
vehicles or components selected from
the population of a vehicle family for
emission testing. This may include
testing for certification, production-line
testing, or in-use testing.
Test vehicle means a vehicle in a test
sample.
Test weight means the vehicle weight
used or represented during testing.
Tire rolling resistance level (TRRL)
means a value with units of kg/metric
ton that represents the rolling resistance
of a tire configuration. TRRLs are used
as modeling inputs under §§ 1037.515
and 1037.520. Note that a manufacturer
may use the measured value for a tire
configuration’s coefficient of rolling
resistance, or assign some higher value.
Total hydrocarbon has the meaning
given in 40 CFR 1065.1001. This
generally means the combined mass of
organic compounds measured by the
specified procedure for measuring total
hydrocarbon, expressed as a
hydrocarbon with an atomic hydrogento-carbon ratio of 1.85:1.
Total hydrocarbon equivalent has the
meaning given in 40 CFR 1065.1001.
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This generally means the sum of the
carbon mass contributions of nonoxygenated hydrocarbons, alcohols and
aldehydes, or other organic compounds
that are measured separately as
contained in a gas sample, expressed as
exhaust hydrocarbon from petroleumfueled vehicles. The atomic hydrogento-carbon ratio of the equivalent
hydrocarbon is 1.85:1.
Tractor has the meaning given for
‘‘truck tractor’’ in 49 CFR 571.3. This
includes most heavy-duty vehicles
specifically designed for the primary
purpose of pulling trailers, but does not
include vehicles designed to carry other
loads. For purposes of this definition
‘‘other loads’’ would not include loads
carried in the cab, sleeper compartment,
or toolboxes. Examples of vehicles that
are similar to tractors but that are not
tractors under this part include
dromedary tractors, automobile haulers,
straight trucks with trailers hitches, and
tow trucks. Note that the provisions of
this part that apply for tractors do not
apply for tractors that are classified as
vocational tractors under § 1037.630.
Trailer means a piece of equipment
designed for carrying cargo and for
being drawn by a tractor when coupled
to the tractor’s fifth wheel. Trailers may
be divided into different types and
categories as described in paragraphs (1)
through (4) of this definition. The types
of equipment identified in paragraph (5)
of this definition are not trailers for
purposes of this part.
(1) Box vans are trailers with an
enclosed cargo space that is
permanently attached to the chassis,
with fixed sides, nose, and roof and is
designed to carry a wide range of
freight. Tankers are not box vans.
(2) Box vans with front-mounted, selfcontained HVAC systems are
refrigerated vans. Note that this includes
systems that provide cooling, heating, or
both. All other box vans are dry vans.
(3) Trailers that are not box vans are
non-box trailers. This includes chassis
that are designed only for temporarily
mounted containers.
(4) Box trailers with length greater
than 50 feet are long box trailers. Other
box trailers are short box trailers.
(5) The following types of equipment
are not trailers:
(i) Containers that are not
permanently mounted on chassis.
(ii) [Reserved]
Urban Duty Cycle has the meaning
given in § 1037.510.
Ultimate purchaser means, with
respect to any new vehicle, the first
person who in good faith purchases
such new vehicle for purposes other
than resale.
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United States has the meaning given
in 40 CFR 1068.30.
Upcoming model year means for a
vehicle family the model year after the
one currently in production.
U.S.-directed production volume
means the number of vehicle units,
subject to the requirements of this part,
produced by a manufacturer for which
the manufacturer has a reasonable
assurance that sale was or will be made
to ultimate purchasers in the United
States. This does not include vehicles
certified to state emission standards that
are different than the emission
standards in this part.
Useful life means the period during
which a vehicle is required to comply
with all applicable emission standards.
Vehicle means equipment intended
for use on highways that meets at least
one of the criteria of paragraph (1) of
this definition, as follows:
(1) The following equipment are
vehicles:
(i) A piece of equipment that is
intended for self-propelled use on
highways becomes a vehicle when it
includes at least an engine, a
transmission, and a frame. (Note: For
purposes of this definition, any
electrical, mechanical, and/or hydraulic
devices attached to engines for the
purpose of powering wheels are
considered to be transmissions.)
(ii) A piece of equipment that is
intended for self-propelled use on
highways becomes a vehicle when it
includes a passenger compartment
attached to a frame with axles.
(iii) Trailers. A trailer becomes a
vehicle when it has a frame with axles
attached.
(2) Vehicles other than trailers may be
complete or incomplete vehicles as
follows:
(i) A complete vehicle is a functioning
vehicle that has the primary load
carrying device or container (or
equivalent equipment) attached.
Examples of equivalent equipment
would include fifth wheel trailer
hitches, firefighting equipment, and
utility booms.
(ii) An incomplete vehicle is a vehicle
that is not a complete vehicle.
Incomplete vehicles may also be cabcomplete vehicles. This may include
vehicles sold to secondary vehicle
manufacturers.
(iii) The primary use of the terms
‘‘complete vehicle’’ and ‘‘incomplete
vehicle’’ are to distinguish whether a
vehicle is complete when it is first sold
as a vehicle.
(iv) You may ask us to allow you to
certify a vehicle as incomplete if you
manufacture the engines and sell the
unassembled chassis components, as
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40665
long as you do not produce and sell the
body components necessary to complete
the vehicle.
Vehicle configuration means a unique
combination of vehicle hardware and
calibration (related to measured or
modeled emissions) within a vehicle
family. Vehicles with hardware or
software differences, but that have no
hardware or software differences related
to measured or modeled emissions may
be included in the same vehicle
configuration. Note that vehicles with
hardware or software differences related
to measured or modeled emissions are
considered to be different configurations
even if they have the same GEM inputs
and FEL. Vehicles within a vehicle
configuration differ only with respect to
normal production variability or factors
unrelated to measured or modeled
emissions.
Vehicle family has the meaning given
in § 1037.230.
Vehicle service class means a
vehicle’s weight class as specified in
this definition. Note that, while vehicle
service class is similar to primary
intended service class for engines, they
are not necessarily the same. For
example, a medium heavy-duty vehicle
may include a light heavy-duty engine.
(1) Light heavy-duty vehicles are
those vehicles with GVWR below 19,500
pounds. Vehicles In this class include
heavy-duty pickup trucks and vans,
motor homes and other recreational
vehicles, and some straight trucks with
a single rear axle. Typical applications
would include personal transportation,
light-load commercial delivery,
passenger service, agriculture, and
construction.
(2) Medium heavy-duty vehicles are
those vehicles with GVWR from 19,500
to 33,000 pounds. Vehicles in this class
include school buses, straight trucks
with a single rear axle, city tractors, and
a variety of special purpose vehicles
such as small dump trucks, and refuse
trucks. Typical applications would
include commercial short haul and
intra-city delivery and pickup.
(3) Heavy heavy-duty vehicles are
those vehicles with GVWR above 33,000
pounds. Vehicles in this class include
tractors, urban buses, and other heavy
trucks.
Vehicle subfamily or subfamily means
a subset of a vehicle family including
vehicles subject to the same FEL(s).
Vocational tractor means a vehicle
classified as a vocational tractor under
§ 1037.630.
Vocational vehicle means relating to a
vehicle subject to the standards of
§ 1037.105 (including vocational
tractors).
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Void has the meaning given in 40 CFR
1068.30.
Volatile liquid fuel means any fuel
other than diesel or biodiesel that is a
liquid at atmospheric pressure and has
a Reid Vapor Pressure higher than 2.0
pounds per square inch.
We (us, our) means the Administrator
of the Environmental Protection Agency
and any authorized representatives.
Special Publication 811, which we
incorporate by reference in § 1037.810.
See 40 CFR 1065.20 for specific
provisions related to these conventions.
This section summarizes the way we
use symbols, units of measure, and
other abbreviations.
(a) Symbols for chemical species. This
part uses the following symbols for
chemical species and exhaust
constituents:
§ 1037.805 Symbols, abbreviations, and
acronyms.
Symbol
The procedures in this part generally
follow either the International System of
Units (SI) or the United States
customary units, as detailed in NIST
Symbol
H2O ..............
HC ................
NMHC ..........
NMHCE ........
water.
hydrocarbon.
nonmethane hydrocarbon.
nonmethane hydrocarbon
equivalent.
nitric oxide.
nitrogen dioxide.
oxides of nitrogen.
nitrous oxide.
particulate matter.
total hydrocarbon.
total hydrocarbon equivalent.
NO ................
NO2 ..............
NOX ..............
N2O ..............
PM ................
THC ..............
THCE ...........
Species
C ...................
CH4 ...............
CO ................
CO2 ..............
Species
carbon.
methane.
carbon monoxide.
carbon dioxide.
(b) Symbols for quantities. This part
uses the following symbols and units of
measure for various quantities:
Symbol
Quantity
Unit
Unit symbol
α ...................
atomic hydrogen-to-carbon ratio.
intercept of air speed
correction.
slope of air speed correction.
vehicle frictional load ....
acceleration of Earth’s
gravity.
intercept of least
squares regression.
slope of least squares
regression.
vehicle load from drag
and rolling resistance.
mole per mole ..............
mol/mol .........................
1
pound force or newton
meters per second
squared.
lbf or N ..........................
m/s2 ..............................
kg·m·s¥2
m·s¥2
pound force per mile
per hour or newton
second per meter.
mole per mole ..............
lbf/mph2 or N·s2/m2 ......
kg·s¥1
mol/mol .........................
1
pound force per mile
per hour squared or
newton-second
squared per meter
squared.
lbf/mph2 or N·s2/m2 ......
kg·m¥1
meter squared ..............
m2 .................................
m2
kilogram per metric ton
kg/tonne ........................
10¥3
miles or meters .............
grams/ton-mile ..............
mi or m .........................
g/ton-mi .........................
m
g/kg-km
pound force or newton
revolutions per minute ..
percent ..........................
meters per second
squared.
meters ...........................
lbf or N ..........................
r/min ..............................
% ..................................
m/s2 ..............................
kg·m·s¥2
π·30·s¥1
10¥2
m·s¥2
m ...................................
m
pound mass or kilogram
gram per mole ..............
kilogram ........................
kilogram ........................
lbm or kg ......................
g/mol .............................
kg ..................................
kg ..................................
kg
10¥3·kg·mol¥1
kg
kg
α0 ..................
α1 ..................
A ...................
ag ..................
a0 ..................
a1 ..................
B ...................
β ...................
β0 ..................
β1 ..................
C ...................
Ci ..................
CDA ...............
CD .................
CF .................
Crr .................
D ...................
e ...................
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Eff .................
F ...................
F ...................
fn ...................
G ...................
g ...................
h ...................
i .....................
ka ..................
kd ..................
ktopgear ...........
m ..................
M ..................
M ..................
Me .................
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atomic oxygen-to-carbon ratio.
intercept of air direction
correction.
slope of air direction
correction.
vehicle-specific aerodynamic effects.
constant.
drag area ......................
drag coefficient.
correction factor.
coefficient of rolling resistance.
distance ........................
mass-weighted emission result.
efficiency.
adjustment factor.
force ..............................
angular speed (shaft) ...
road grade ....................
gravitational acceleration.
elevation or height ........
indexing variable.
drive axle ratio.
transmission gear ratio.
highest available transmission gear.
mass .............................
molar mass ...................
vehicle mass .................
vehicle effective mass ..
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Symbol
Quantity
Unit
Unit symbol
Mrotating ..........
inertial mass of rotating
components.
total number in series.
amount of substance
rate.
pressure ........................
mass density ................
kilogram ........................
kg ..................................
kg
mole per second ...........
mol/s .............................
mol·s¥1
pascal ...........................
kilogram per cubic
meter.
tons ...............................
meter ............................
Pa .................................
kg/m3 ............................
kg·m¥1·s¥2
kg·m¥3
ton .................................
m ...................................
kg
m
kilogram per metric ton
kg/tonne ........................
10¥3
degrees .........................
kelvin ............................
degree Celsius .............
newton meter ................
° ....................................
K ...................................
°C ..................................
N·m ...............................
°
K
K—273.15
m2·kg·s¥2
second ..........................
second ..........................
s ....................................
s ....................................
s
s
miles per hour or meters per second.
mph or m/s ...................
m·s¥1
miles per hour ..............
kilowatt-hour .................
gram/gram ....................
pound mass ..................
mole per mole ..............
mph ...............................
kW·hr ............................
g/g .................................
lbm ................................
mol/mol .........................
m·s¥1
3.6·m2·kg·s¥1
1
kg
1
N ...................
˙
n ...................
p ...................
r ...................
PL .................
r ....................
r2 ...................
payload .........................
tire radius ......................
coefficient of determination.
Reynolds number.
standard estimate of
error.
tire rolling resistance
level.
wind direction ...............
absolute temperature ...
Celsius temperature .....
torque (moment of
force).
time ...............................
time interval, period, 1/
frequency.
speed ............................
Re# ...............
SEE ..............
TRRL ............
q ....................
T ...................
T ...................
T ...................
t ....................
Δt ..................
v ....................
w ...................
w ...................
W ..................
wC .................
WR ...............
x ....................
weighting factor.
wind speed ...................
work ..............................
carbon mass fraction ....
weight reduction ...........
amount of substance
mole fraction.
(c) Superscripts. This part uses the
following superscripts to define a
quantity:
Subscript
Superscript
Quantity
overbar (such as y) ...
˙
overdot (such as y) ...
arithmetic mean.
quantity per unit time.
(d) Subscripts. This part uses the
following subscripts to define a
quantity:
Subscript
Quantity
±6 ...................
aero ................
air ...................
alt. ...................
act ...................
6° yaw angle sweep.
aerodynamic.
air.
alternative.
actual or measured condition.
air.
axle.
brake.
carbon from fuel per mole of
dry exhaust.
circuit.
coastdown.
CO2 emissions for PTO
cycle.
CO2 from urea decomposition.
composite.
test cycle.
driver.
dynamometer.
air ...................
axle .................
brake ..............
Ccombdry .......
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circuit ..............
coastdown ......
CO2PTO .........
CO2urea .........
comp ...............
cycle ...............
driver ..............
dyno ................
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Quantity
event ...............
end .................
fuel ..................
full ...................
grade ..............
H2Oexhaustdry
event.
end.
fuel.
full.
grade.
H2O in exhaust per mole of
exhaust.
high.
inlet.
idle.
low.
maximum.
measured quantity.
minimum.
moving.
outlet.
powertrain.
record.
reference quantity.
speed.
start.
theoretical.
total.
traction.
transient.
urea.
vehicle.
wind.
wind average.
yaw angle.
yaw sweep.
zero quantity.
hi .....................
in .....................
idle ..................
lo .....................
max .................
meas ...............
min ..................
moving ............
out ..................
powertrain .......
record .............
ref ...................
speed ..............
start ................
th ....................
total .................
trac .................
transient ..........
urea ................
veh ..................
w .....................
wa ...................
yaw .................
ys ....................
zero ................
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Unit in terms of SI base units
(e) Other acronyms and abbreviations.
This part uses the following additional
abbreviations and acronyms:
ABT averaging, banking, and trading
AECD auxiliary emission control
device
AES automatic engine shutdown
CFD computational fluid dynamics
CFR Code of Federal Regulations
CITT curb idle transmission torque
DOT Department of Transportation
EPA Environmental Protection Agency
FE fuel economy
FEL Family Emission Limit
GAWR gross axle weight rating
GCWR gross combination weight
rating
GEM greenhouse gas emission model
GVWR gross vehicle weight rating
HVAC heating, ventilating, and air
conditioning
ISO International Organization for
Standardization
NARA National Archives and Records
Administration
NHTSA National Highway
Transportation Safety Administration
PTO power take-off
RESS rechargeable energy storage
system
rpm revolutions per minute
SAE Society of Automotive Engineers
SKU stock-keeping unit
TRRL tire rolling resistance level
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U.S.C United States Code
VSL vehicle speed limiter
(f) Constants. This part uses the
following constants:
Symbol
g .............
R ............
Quantity
gravitational
constant.
specific gas
constant.
Value
9.81 m·s ¥2
287.058 J/(kg·K)
(g) Prefixes. This part uses the
following prefixes to define a quantity:
Quantity
μ .............
m ............
c .............
k .............
M ............
micro .........................
milli ...........................
centi ..........................
kilo ............................
mega .........................
§ 1037.810
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Symbol
Value
Incorporation by reference.
10¥6
10¥3
10¥2
103
106
(a) Certain material is incorporated by
reference into this part with the
approval of the Director of the Federal
Register under 5 U.S.C. 552(a) and 1
CFR part 51. To enforce any edition
other than that specified in this section,
the Environmental Protection Agency
must publish a notice of the change in
the Federal Register and the material
must be available to the public. All
approved material is available for
inspection at U.S. EPA, Air and
Radiation Docket and Information
Center, 1301 Constitution Ave. NW.,
Room B102, EPA West Building,
Washington, DC 20460, (202) 202–1744,
and is available from the sources listed
below. It is also available for inspection
at the National Archives and Records
Administration (NARA). For
information on the availability of this
material at NARA, call 202–741–6030,
or go to https://www.archives.gov/
federal_register/code_of_
federal_regulations/ibr_locations.html.
(b) International Organization for
Standardization, Case Postale 56, CH–
1211 Geneva 20, Switzerland, (41)
22749 0111, www.iso.org, or
central@iso.org.
(1) ISO 28580:2009(E) ‘‘Passenger car,
truck and bus tyres—Methods of
measuring rolling resistance—Single
point test and correlation of
measurement results’’, First Edition,
July 1, 2009, (‘‘ISO 28580’’), IBR
approved for § 1037.520(c).
(2) [Reserved]
(c) U.S. EPA, Office of Air and
Radiation, 2565 Plymouth Road, Ann
Arbor, MI 48105, www.epa.gov.
(1) Greenhouse gas Emissions Model
(GEM) simulation tool, Version 2.0.1,
September 2012 (‘‘GEM version 2.0.1’’),
IBR approved for § 1037.520. The
computer code for this model is
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06:45 Jul 11, 2015
Jkt 235001
available as noted in paragraph (a) of
this section. A working version of this
software is also available for download
at https://www.epa.gov/otaq/climate/
gem.htm.
(2) Greenhouse gas Emissions Model
(GEM) Phase 2 simulation tool, Version
1.0, June 2015 (‘‘GEM Phase 2 version
1.0’’, or ‘‘GEM_P2v1.0’’); IBR approved
for § 1037.520. The computer code for
this model is available as noted in
paragraph (a) of this section. A working
version of this software is also available
for download at https://www.epa.gov/
otaq/climate/gem.htm.
(d) SAE International, 400
Commonwealth Dr., Warrendale, PA
15096–0001, (877) 606–7323 (U.S. and
Canada) or (724) 776–4970 (outside the
U.S. and Canada), https://www.sae.org.
(1) SAE J1252, SAE Wind Tunnel Test
Procedure for Trucks and Buses,
Revised July 2012, (‘‘SAE J1252’’), IBR
approved for §§ 1037.525(d),
1037.529(a), and 1037.531(a).
(2) SAE J1263, Road Load
Measurement and Dynamometer
Simulation Using Coastdown
Techniques, revised March 2010, (‘‘SAE
J1263’’), IBR approved for §§ 1037.527
and 1037.665(a).
(3) SAE J1594, Vehicle Aerodynamics
Terminology, Revised July 2010, (‘‘SAE
J1594’’), IBR approved for § 1037.529(d).
(4) SAE J2071, Aerodynamic Testing
of Road Vehicles—Open Throat Wind
Tunnel Adjustment, Revised June 1994,
(‘‘SAE J2071’’), IBR approved for
§ 1037.529(b).
(5) SAE J2263, Road Load
Measurement Using Onboard
Anemometry and Coastdown
Techniques, revised December 2008,
(‘‘SAE J2263’’), IBR approved for
§§ 1037.527 and 1037.665(a).
(6) SAE J2343, Recommended Practice
for LNG Medium and Heavy-Duty
Powered Vehicles, Revised July 2008,
(‘‘SAE J2343’’), IBR approved for
§ 1037.103(e).
(e) BASF Corporation, 100 Park
Avenue, Florham Park, NJ 07932, (973)
245–6000, https://www.basf.com.
(1) BASF TI/EVO 0137 e, Emgard® FE
75W–90 Fuel Efficient Synthetic Gear
Lubricant, April 2012, IBR approved for
§ 1037.560(a).
(2) [Reserved]
(f) National Institute of Standards and
Technology, 100 Bureau Drive, Stop
1070, Gaithersburg, MD 20899–1070,
(301) 975–6478, or www.nist.gov.
(1) NIST Special Publication 811,
2008 Edition, Guide for the Use of the
International System of Units (SI),
March 2008, IBR approved for
§ 1037.805.
(2) [Reserved]
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§ 1037.815
Confidential information.
The provisions of 40 CFR 1068.10
apply for information you consider
confidential.
§ 1037.820
Requesting a hearing.
(a) You may request a hearing under
certain circumstances, as described
elsewhere in this part. To do this, you
must file a written request, including a
description of your objection and any
supporting data, within 30 days after we
make a decision.
(b) For a hearing you request under
the provisions of this part, we will
approve your request if we find that
your request raises a substantial factual
issue.
(c) If we agree to hold a hearing, we
will use the procedures specified in 40
CFR part 1068, subpart G.
§ 1037.825 Reporting and recordkeeping
requirements.
(a) This part includes various
requirements to submit and record data
or other information. Unless we specify
otherwise, store required records in any
format and on any media and keep them
readily available for eight years after
you send an associated application for
certification, or eight years after you
generate the data if they do not support
an application for certification. You may
not rely on anyone else to meet
recordkeeping requirements on your
behalf unless we specifically authorize
it. We may review these records at any
time. You must promptly send us
organized, written records in English if
we ask for them. We may require you to
submit written records in an electronic
format.
(b) The regulations in § 1037.255 and
40 CFR 1068.25 and 1068.101 describe
your obligation to report truthful and
complete information. This includes
information not related to certification.
Failing to properly report information
and keep the records we specify violates
40 CFR 1068.101(a)(2), which may
involve civil or criminal penalties.
(c) Send all reports and requests for
approval to the Designated Compliance
Officer (see § 1037.801).
(d) Any written information we
require you to send to or receive from
another company is deemed to be a
required record under this section. Such
records are also deemed to be
submissions to EPA. Keep these records
for eight years unless the regulations
specify a different period. We may
require you to send us these records
whether or not you are a certificate
holder.
(e) Under the Paperwork Reduction
Act (44 U.S.C. 3501 et seq.), the Office
of Management and Budget approves
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the reporting and recordkeeping
specified in the applicable regulations.
The following items illustrate the kind
of reporting and recordkeeping we
require for vehicles regulated under this
part:
(1) We specify the following
requirements related to vehicle
certification in this part 1037:
(i) In subpart C of this part we identify
a wide range of information required to
certify vehicles.
(ii) In subpart G of this part we
identify several reporting and
recordkeeping items for making
demonstrations and getting approval
related to various special compliance
provisions.
(iii) In § 1037.725, 1037.730, and
1037.735 we specify certain records
related to averaging, banking, and
trading.
(2) We specify the following
requirements related to testing in 40
CFR part 1066:
(i) In 40 CFR 1066.2 we give an
overview of principles for reporting
information.
(ii) In 40 CFR 1066.25 we establish
basic guidelines for storing test
information.
(iii) In 40 CFR 1066.695 we identify
the specific information and data items
to record when measuring emissions.
(3) We specify the following
requirements related to the general
compliance provisions in 40 CFR part
1068:
(i) In 40 CFR 1068.5 we establish a
process for evaluating good engineering
judgment related to testing and
certification.
(ii) In 40 CFR 1068.25 we describe
general provisions related to sending
and keeping information.
(iii) In 40 CFR 1068.27 we require
manufacturers to make engines available
for our testing or inspection if we make
such a request.
(iv) In 40 CFR 1068.105 we require
vehicle manufacturers to keep certain
records related to duplicate labels from
engine manufacturers.
(v) In 40 CFR 1068.120 we specify
recordkeeping related to rebuilding
engines.
(vi) In 40 CFR part 1068, subpart C,
we identify several reporting and
recordkeeping items for making
demonstrations and getting approval
related to various exemptions.
(vii) In 40 CFR part 1068, subpart D,
we identify several reporting and
recordkeeping items for making
demonstrations and getting approval
related to importing engines.
(viii) In 40 CFR 1068.450 and
1068.455 we specify certain records
related to testing production-line
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engines in a selective enforcement
audit.
(ix) In 40 CFR 1068.501 we specify
certain records related to investigating
and reporting emission-related defects.
(x) In 40 CFR 1068.525 and 1068.530
we specify certain records related to
recalling nonconforming engines.
Appendix I to Part 1037—Heavy-Duty
Transient Test Cycle
Time
(sec)
Speed
(mph)
1 ................................
2 ................................
3 ................................
4 ................................
5 ................................
6 ................................
7 ................................
8 ................................
9 ................................
10 ..............................
11 ..............................
12 ..............................
13 ..............................
14 ..............................
15 ..............................
16 ..............................
17 ..............................
18 ..............................
19 ..............................
20 ..............................
21 ..............................
22 ..............................
23 ..............................
24 ..............................
25 ..............................
26 ..............................
27 ..............................
28 ..............................
29 ..............................
30 ..............................
31 ..............................
32 ..............................
33 ..............................
34 ..............................
35 ..............................
36 ..............................
37 ..............................
38 ..............................
39 ..............................
40 ..............................
41 ..............................
42 ..............................
43 ..............................
44 ..............................
45 ..............................
46 ..............................
47 ..............................
48 ..............................
49 ..............................
50 ..............................
51 ..............................
52 ..............................
53 ..............................
54 ..............................
55 ..............................
56 ..............................
57 ..............................
58 ..............................
59 ..............................
60 ..............................
61 ..............................
PO 00000
Frm 00533
Fmt 4701
Speed
(m/s)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.41
1.18
2.26
3.19
3.97
4.66
5.32
5.94
6.48
6.91
7.28
7.64
8.02
8.36
8.60
8.74
8.82
8.82
8.76
8.66
8.58
8.52
8.46
8.38
8.31
8.21
8.11
8.00
7.94
7.94
7.80
7.43
6.79
5.81
4.65
3.03
1.88
1.15
1.14
1.12
1.11
1.19
1.57
2.31
3.37
4.51
5.56
6.41
7.09
7.59
7.99
8.32
8.64
8.91
9.13
Sfmt 4702
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.18
0.53
1.01
1.43
1.77
2.08
2.38
2.66
2.90
3.09
3.25
3.42
3.59
3.74
3.84
3.91
3.94
3.94
3.92
3.87
3.84
3.81
3.78
3.75
3.71
3.67
3.63
3.58
3.55
3.55
3.49
3.32
3.04
2.60
2.08
1.35
0.84
0.51
0.51
0.50
0.50
0.53
0.70
1.03
1.51
2.02
2.49
2.87
3.17
3.39
3.57
3.72
3.86
3.98
4.08
Time
(sec)
62 ..............................
63 ..............................
64 ..............................
65 ..............................
66 ..............................
67 ..............................
68 ..............................
69 ..............................
70 ..............................
71 ..............................
72 ..............................
73 ..............................
74 ..............................
75 ..............................
76 ..............................
77 ..............................
78 ..............................
79 ..............................
80 ..............................
81 ..............................
82 ..............................
83 ..............................
84 ..............................
85 ..............................
86 ..............................
87 ..............................
88 ..............................
89 ..............................
90 ..............................
91 ..............................
92 ..............................
93 ..............................
94 ..............................
95 ..............................
96 ..............................
97 ..............................
98 ..............................
99 ..............................
100 ............................
101 ............................
102 ............................
103 ............................
104 ............................
105 ............................
106 ............................
107 ............................
108 ............................
109 ............................
110 ............................
111 ............................
112 ............................
113 ............................
114 ............................
115 ............................
116 ............................
117 ............................
118 ............................
119 ............................
120 ............................
121 ............................
122 ............................
123 ............................
124 ............................
125 ............................
126 ............................
127 ............................
128 ............................
129 ............................
130 ............................
131 ............................
132 ............................
133 ............................
134 ............................
E:\FR\FM\13JYP2.SGM
13JYP2
Speed
(mph)
9.29
9.40
9.39
9.20
8.84
8.35
7.81
7.22
6.65
6.13
5.75
5.61
5.65
5.80
5.95
6.09
6.21
6.31
6.34
6.47
6.65
6.88
7.04
7.05
7.01
6.90
6.88
6.89
6.96
7.04
7.17
7.29
7.39
7.48
7.57
7.61
7.59
7.53
7.46
7.40
7.39
7.38
7.37
7.37
7.39
7.42
7.43
7.40
7.39
7.42
7.50
7.57
7.60
7.60
7.61
7.64
7.68
7.74
7.82
7.90
7.96
7.99
8.02
8.01
7.87
7.59
7.20
6.52
5.53
4.36
3.30
2.50
1.94
Speed
(m/s)
4.15
4.20
4.20
4.11
3.95
3.73
3.49
3.23
2.97
2.74
2.57
2.51
2.53
2.59
2.66
2.72
2.78
2.82
2.83
2.89
2.97
3.08
3.15
3.15
3.13
3.08
3.08
3.08
3.11
3.15
3.21
3.26
3.30
3.34
3.38
3.40
3.39
3.37
3.33
3.31
3.30
3.30
3.29
3.29
3.30
3.32
3.32
3.31
3.30
3.32
3.35
3.38
3.40
3.40
3.40
3.42
3.43
3.46
3.50
3.53
3.56
3.57
3.59
3.58
3.52
3.39
3.22
2.91
2.47
1.95
1.48
1.12
0.87
40670
Federal Register / Vol. 80, No. 133 / Monday, July 13, 2015 / Proposed Rules
ebenthall on DSK3VPTVN1PROD with MISCELLANEOUS
Time
(sec)
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
151
152
153
154
155
156
157
158
159
160
161
162
163
164
165
166
167
168
169
170
171
172
173
174
175
176
177
178
179
180
181
182
183
184
185
186
187
188
189
190
191
192
193
194
195
196
197
198
199
200
201
202
203
204
205
206
207
Speed
(mph)
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
VerDate Sep<11>2014
Speed
(m/s)
1.56
0.95
0.42
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.11
2.65
4.45
5.68
6.75
7.59
7.75
7.63
7.67
8.70
10.20
11.92
12.84
13.27
13.38
13.61
14.15
14.84
16.49
18.33
20.36
21.47
22.35
22.96
23.46
23.92
24.42
24.99
25.91
26.26
26.38
26.26
26.49
26.76
27.07
26.64
06:45 Jul 11, 2015
Jkt 235001
0.70
0.42
0.19
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.50
1.18
1.99
2.54
3.02
3.39
3.46
3.41
3.43
3.89
4.56
5.33
5.74
5.93
5.98
6.08
6.33
6.63
7.37
8.19
9.10
9.60
9.99
10.26
10.49
10.69
10.92
11.17
11.58
11.74
11.79
11.74
11.84
11.96
12.10
11.91
Time
(sec)
208
209
210
211
212
213
214
215
216
217
218
219
220
221
222
223
224
225
226
227
228
229
230
231
232
233
234
235
236
237
238
239
240
241
242
243
244
245
246
247
248
249
250
251
252
253
254
255
256
257
258
259
260
261
262
263
264
265
266
267
268
269
270
271
272
273
274
275
276
277
278
279
280
PO 00000
Speed
(mph)
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
Frm 00534
Fmt 4701
Speed
(m/s)
25.99
24.77
24.04
23.39
22.73
22.16
21.66
21.39
21.43
20.67
17.98
13.15
7.71
3.30
0.88
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.50
1.57
3.07
4.57
5.65
6.95
8.05
9.13
10.05
11.62
12.92
13.84
14.38
15.64
17.14
18.21
18.90
19.44
20.09
21.89
24.15
26.26
Sfmt 4702
11.62
11.07
10.75
10.46
10.16
9.91
9.68
9.56
9.58
9.24
8.04
5.88
3.45
1.48
0.39
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.22
0.70
1.37
2.04
2.53
3.11
3.60
4.08
4.49
5.19
5.78
6.19
6.43
6.99
7.66
8.14
8.45
8.69
8.98
9.79
10.80
11.74
Time
(sec)
281
282
283
284
285
286
287
288
289
290
291
292
293
294
295
296
297
298
299
300
301
302
303
304
305
306
307
308
309
310
311
312
313
314
315
316
317
318
319
320
321
322
323
324
325
326
327
328
329
330
331
332
333
334
335
336
337
338
339
340
341
342
343
344
345
346
347
348
349
350
351
352
353
E:\FR\FM\13JYP2.SGM
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
13JYP2
Speed
(mph)
26.95
27.03
27.30
28.10
29.44
30.78
32.09
33.24
34.46
35.42
35.88
36.03
35.84
35.65
35.31
35.19
35.12
35.12
35.04
35.08
35.04
35.34
35.50
35.77
35.81
35.92
36.23
36.42
36.65
36.26
36.07
35.84
35.96
36.00
35.57
35.00
34.08
33.39
32.20
30.32
28.48
26.95
26.18
25.38
24.77
23.46
22.39
20.97
20.09
18.90
18.17
16.48
15.07
12.23
10.08
7.71
7.32
8.63
10.77
12.65
13.88
15.03
15.64
16.99
17.98
19.13
18.67
18.25
18.17
18.40
19.63
20.32
21.43
Speed
(m/s)
12.05
12.08
12.20
12.56
13.16
13.76
14.35
14.86
15.40
15.83
16.04
16.11
16.02
15.94
15.78
15.73
15.70
15.70
15.66
15.68
15.66
15.80
15.87
15.99
16.01
16.06
16.20
16.28
16.38
16.21
16.12
16.02
16.08
16.09
15.90
15.65
15.24
14.93
14.39
13.55
12.73
12.05
11.70
11.35
11.07
10.49
10.01
9.37
8.98
8.45
8.12
7.37
6.74
5.47
4.51
3.45
3.27
3.86
4.81
5.66
6.20
6.72
6.99
7.60
8.04
8.55
8.35
8.16
8.12
8.23
8.78
9.08
9.58
40671
Federal Register / Vol. 80, No. 133 / Monday, July 13, 2015 / Proposed Rules
ebenthall on DSK3VPTVN1PROD with MISCELLANEOUS
Time
(sec)
354
355
356
357
358
359
360
361
362
363
364
365
366
367
368
369
370
371
372
373
374
375
376
377
378
379
380
381
382
383
384
385
386
387
388
389
390
391
392
393
394
395
396
397
398
399
400
401
402
403
404
405
406
407
408
409
410
411
412
413
414
415
416
417
418
419
420
421
422
423
424
425
426
Speed
(mph)
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
VerDate Sep<11>2014
Speed
(m/s)
21.47
21.97
22.27
22.69
23.15
23.69
23.96
24.27
24.34
24.50
24.42
24.38
24.31
24.23
24.69
25.11
25.53
25.38
24.58
23.77
23.54
23.50
24.15
24.30
24.15
23.19
22.50
21.93
21.85
21.55
21.89
21.97
21.97
22.01
21.85
21.62
21.62
22.01
22.81
23.54
24.38
24.80
24.61
23.12
21.62
19.90
18.86
17.79
17.25
16.91
16.75
16.75
16.87
16.37
16.37
16.49
17.21
17.41
17.37
16.87
16.72
16.22
15.76
14.72
13.69
12.00
10.43
8.71
7.44
5.71
4.22
2.30
1.00
06:45 Jul 11, 2015
Jkt 235001
9.60
9.82
9.96
10.14
10.35
10.59
10.71
10.85
10.88
10.95
10.92
10.90
10.87
10.83
11.04
11.23
11.41
11.35
10.99
10.63
10.52
10.51
10.80
10.86
10.80
10.37
10.06
9.80
9.77
9.63
9.79
9.82
9.82
9.84
9.77
9.67
9.67
9.84
10.20
10.52
10.90
11.09
11.00
10.34
9.67
8.90
8.43
7.95
7.71
7.56
7.49
7.49
7.54
7.32
7.32
7.37
7.69
7.78
7.77
7.54
7.47
7.25
7.05
6.58
6.12
5.36
4.66
3.89
3.33
2.55
1.89
1.03
0.45
Time
(sec)
427
428
429
430
431
432
433
434
435
436
437
438
439
440
441
442
443
444
445
446
447
448
449
450
451
452
453
454
455
456
457
458
459
460
461
462
463
464
465
466
467
468
469
470
471
472
473
474
475
476
477
478
479
480
481
482
483
484
485
486
487
488
489
490
491
492
493
494
495
496
497
498
499
PO 00000
Speed
(mph)
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
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............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
Frm 00535
Fmt 4701
Speed
(m/s)
0.00
0.61
1.19
1.61
1.53
2.34
4.29
7.25
10.20
12.46
14.53
16.22
17.87
19.74
21.01
22.23
22.62
23.61
24.88
26.15
26.99
27.56
28.18
28.94
29.83
30.78
31.82
32.78
33.24
33.47
33.31
33.08
32.78
32.39
32.13
31.82
31.55
31.25
30.94
30.71
30.56
30.79
31.13
31.55
31.51
31.47
31.44
31.51
31.59
31.67
32.01
32.63
33.39
34.31
34.81
34.20
32.39
30.29
28.56
26.45
24.79
23.12
20.73
18.33
15.72
13.11
10.47
7.82
5.70
3.57
0.92
0.00
0.00
Sfmt 4702
0.00
0.27
0.53
0.72
0.68
1.05
1.92
3.24
4.56
5.57
6.50
7.25
7.99
8.82
9.39
9.94
10.11
10.55
11.12
11.69
12.07
12.32
12.60
12.94
13.34
13.76
14.22
14.65
14.86
14.96
14.89
14.79
14.65
14.48
14.36
14.22
14.10
13.97
13.83
13.73
13.66
13.76
13.92
14.10
14.09
14.07
14.05
14.09
14.12
14.16
14.31
14.59
14.93
15.34
15.56
15.29
14.48
13.54
12.77
11.82
11.08
10.34
9.27
8.19
7.03
5.86
4.68
3.50
2.55
1.60
0.41
0.00
0.00
Time
(sec)
500
501
502
503
504
505
506
507
508
509
510
511
512
513
514
515
516
517
518
519
520
521
522
523
524
525
526
527
528
529
530
531
532
533
534
535
536
537
538
539
540
541
542
543
544
545
546
547
548
549
550
551
552
553
554
555
556
557
558
559
560
561
562
563
564
565
566
567
568
569
570
571
572
E:\FR\FM\13JYP2.SGM
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
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............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
13JYP2
Speed
(mph)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.50
1.50
3.00
4.50
5.80
6.52
6.75
6.44
6.17
6.33
6.71
7.40
7.67
7.33
6.71
6.41
6.60
6.56
5.94
5.45
5.87
6.71
7.56
7.59
7.63
7.67
7.67
7.48
7.29
7.29
7.40
7.48
7.52
7.52
7.48
7.44
7.28
7.21
7.09
7.06
7.29
7.75
8.55
9.09
10.04
11.12
12.46
13.00
14.26
15.37
17.02
Speed
(m/s)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.22
0.67
1.34
2.01
2.59
2.91
3.02
2.88
2.76
2.83
3.00
3.31
3.43
3.28
3.00
2.87
2.95
2.93
2.66
2.44
2.62
3.00
3.38
3.39
3.41
3.43
3.43
3.34
3.26
3.26
3.31
3.34
3.36
3.36
3.34
3.33
3.25
3.22
3.17
3.16
3.26
3.46
3.82
4.06
4.49
4.97
5.57
5.81
6.37
6.87
7.61
40672
Federal Register / Vol. 80, No. 133 / Monday, July 13, 2015 / Proposed Rules
Time
(sec)
573
574
575
576
577
578
579
580
581
582
583
584
585
586
587
588
589
590
591
592
593
594
595
596
597
598
599
600
601
602
603
604
605
606
Speed
(mph)
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
Speed
(m/s)
18.17
19.21
20.17
20.66
21.12
21.43
22.66
23.92
25.42
25.53
26.68
28.14
30.06
30.94
31.63
32.36
33.24
33.66
34.12
35.92
37.72
39.26
39.45
39.83
40.18
40.48
40.75
41.02
41.36
41.79
42.40
42.82
43.05
43.09
8.12
8.59
9.02
9.24
9.44
9.58
10.13
10.69
11.36
11.41
11.93
12.58
13.44
13.83
14.14
14.47
14.86
15.05
15.25
16.06
16.86
17.55
17.64
17.81
17.96
18.10
18.22
18.34
18.49
18.68
18.95
19.14
19.25
19.26
Time
(sec)
607
608
609
610
611
612
613
614
615
616
617
618
619
620
621
622
623
624
625
626
627
628
629
630
631
632
633
634
635
636
637
638
639
640
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
Cycle simulation
ebenthall on DSK3VPTVN1PROD with MISCELLANEOUS
Speed
(mph)
VerDate Sep<11>2014
06:45 Jul 11, 2015
Jkt 235001
43.24
43.59
44.01
44.35
44.55
44.82
45.05
45.31
45.58
46.00
46.31
46.54
46.61
46.92
47.19
47.46
47.54
47.54
47.54
47.50
47.50
47.50
47.31
47.04
46.77
45.54
43.24
41.52
39.79
38.07
36.34
34.04
32.45
30.86
PO 00000
Frm 00536
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
Fmt 4701
19.33
19.49
19.67
19.83
19.92
20.04
20.14
20.26
20.38
20.56
20.70
20.81
20.84
20.98
21.10
21.22
21.25
21.25
21.25
21.23
21.23
21.23
21.15
21.03
20.91
20.36
19.33
18.56
17.79
17.02
16.25
15.22
14.51
13.80
Time
(sec)
641
642
643
644
645
646
647
648
649
650
651
652
653
654
655
656
657
658
659
660
661
662
663
664
665
666
667
668
Speed
(mph)
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
............................
28.83
26.45
24.27
22.04
19.82
17.04
14.26
11.52
8.78
7.17
5.56
3.72
3.38
3.11
2.58
1.66
0.67
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Speed
(m/s)
12.89
11.82
10.85
9.85
8.86
7.62
6.37
5.15
3.93
3.21
2.49
1.66
1.51
1.39
1.15
0.74
0.30
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Appendix II to Part 1037—Power TakeOff Test Cycle
Start time of mode
Mode
Utility ........................................................................................
Utility ........................................................................................
Utility ........................................................................................
Utility ........................................................................................
Utility ........................................................................................
Refuse ......................................................................................
Refuse ......................................................................................
Refuse ......................................................................................
Refuse ......................................................................................
Refuse ......................................................................................
Refuse ......................................................................................
Refuse ......................................................................................
Refuse ......................................................................................
Refuse ......................................................................................
Refuse ......................................................................................
Refuse ......................................................................................
Refuse ......................................................................................
Refuse ......................................................................................
Refuse ......................................................................................
Refuse ......................................................................................
Refuse ......................................................................................
Refuse ......................................................................................
Refuse ......................................................................................
Refuse ......................................................................................
Refuse ......................................................................................
Refuse ......................................................................................
Refuse ......................................................................................
Refuse ......................................................................................
Refuse ......................................................................................
Refuse ......................................................................................
Refuse ......................................................................................
Speed
(m/s)
Sfmt 4702
Normalized pressure, circuit 1 (%)
Normalized pressure, circuit 2 (%)
0
33
40
145
289
361
363
373
384
388
401
403
413
424
442
468
473
486
512
517
530
532
541
550
553
566
568
577
586
589
600
0.0
80.5
0.0
83.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
11.2
29.3
0.0
11.2
29.3
0.0
12.8
12.8
12.8
12.8
0.0
12.8
12.8
12.8
12.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
13.0
38.0
53.0
73.0
0.0
13.0
38.0
53.0
73.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
11.1
38.2
53.4
73.5
0.0
11.1
38.2
53.4
73.5
0.0
0.0
E:\FR\FM\13JYP2.SGM
13JYP2
Federal Register / Vol. 80, No. 133 / Monday, July 13, 2015 / Proposed Rules
Appendix III to Part 1037—Emission
Control Identifiers
Distance
(m)
ebenthall on DSK3VPTVN1PROD with MISCELLANEOUS
This appendix identifies abbreviations for
emission control information labels, as
required under § 1037.135.
Vehicle Speed Limiters
—VSL—Vehicle speed limiter
—VSLS—‘‘Soft-top’’ vehicle speed limiter
—VSLE—Expiring vehicle speed limiter
—VSLD—Vehicle speed limiter with both
‘‘soft-top’’ and expiration
Idle Reduction Technology
—IRT5—Engine shutoff after 5 minutes or
less of idling
—IRTE—Expiring engine shutoff
Tires
—LRRA—Low rolling resistance tires (all)
—LRRD—Low rolling resistance tires (drive)
—LRRS—Low rolling resistance tires (steer)
Aerodynamic Components
—ATS—Aerodynamic side skirt and/or fuel
tank fairing
—ARF—Aerodynamic roof fairing
—ARFR—Adjustable height aerodynamic
roof fairing
—TGR—Gap reducing tractor fairing (tractor
to trailer gap)
—TGRT—Gap reducing trailer fairing (tractor
to trailer gap)
—TATS—Trailer aerodynamic side skirt
—TARF—Trailer aerodynamic rear fairing
—TAUD—Trailer aerodynamic underbody
device
Other Components
—ADVH—Vehicle includes advanced hybrid
technology components
—ADVO—Vehicle includes other advanced
technology components (i.e., non-hybrid
system)
—INV—Vehicle includes innovative (offcycle) technology components
—ATI—Automatic tire inflation system
—WRTW—Weight-reducing trailer wheels
—WRTC—Weight-reducing trailer upper
coupler plate
—WRTS—Weight-reducing trailer axle subframes
—WBSW—Wide-based single trailer tires
with steel wheel
—WBAW—Wide-based single trailer tires
with aluminum wheel
—WBLW—Wide-based single trailer tires
with light-weight aluminum alloy wheel
—DWSW—Dual-wide trailer tires with steel
wheel
—DWAW—Dual-wide trailer tires with
aluminum wheel
—DWLW—Dual-wide trailer tires with lightweight aluminum alloy wheel
Appendix IV to Part 1037—Heavy-Duty
Grade Profile for Phase 2 Steady-State
Test Cycles
Distance
(m)
Grade
(%)
0 ....................................................
2 ....................................................
5 ....................................................
7 ....................................................
10 ..................................................
VerDate Sep<11>2014
06:45 Jul 11, 2015
0
0
0
¥0.01
¥0.03
Jkt 235001
Grade
(%)
12 ..................................................
15 ..................................................
17 ..................................................
20 ..................................................
22 ..................................................
25 ..................................................
27 ..................................................
29 ..................................................
32 ..................................................
145 ................................................
148 ................................................
256 ................................................
258 ................................................
263 ................................................
266 ................................................
273 ................................................
275 ................................................
354 ................................................
357 ................................................
374 ................................................
376 ................................................
391 ................................................
394 ................................................
455 ................................................
457 ................................................
470 ................................................
472 ................................................
602 ................................................
605 ................................................
720 ................................................
723 ................................................
770 ................................................
772 ................................................
782 ................................................
784 ................................................
794 ................................................
797 ................................................
807 ................................................
809 ................................................
917 ................................................
920 ................................................
922 ................................................
925 ................................................
927 ................................................
930 ................................................
932 ................................................
934 ................................................
937 ................................................
939 ................................................
942 ................................................
944 ................................................
947 ................................................
949 ................................................
952 ................................................
954 ................................................
957 ................................................
959 ................................................
962 ................................................
1038 ..............................................
1040 ..............................................
1043 ..............................................
1045 ..............................................
1048 ..............................................
1050 ..............................................
1052 ..............................................
1055 ..............................................
1057 ..............................................
1060 ..............................................
1062 ..............................................
1111 ..............................................
1114 ..............................................
1116 ..............................................
1119 ..............................................
PO 00000
Frm 00537
Fmt 4701
Sfmt 4702
¥0.04
¥0.04
¥0.07
¥0.09
¥0.1
¥0.12
¥0.12
¥0.13
¥0.15
¥0.15
¥0.16
¥0.16
¥0.17
¥0.17
¥0.18
¥0.18
¥0.19
¥0.19
¥0.18
¥0.18
¥0.17
¥0.17
¥0.16
¥0.16
¥0.15
¥0.15
¥0.14
¥0.14
¥0.15
¥0.15
¥0.14
¥0.14
¥0.15
¥0.15
¥0.16
¥0.16
¥0.17
¥0.17
¥0.18
¥0.18
¥0.17
¥0.17
¥0.16
¥0.15
¥0.15
¥0.14
¥0.14
¥0.13
¥0.12
¥0.12
¥0.11
¥0.11
¥0.1
¥0.1
¥0.09
¥0.08
¥0.08
¥0.07
¥0.07
0
0.06
0.13
0.19
0.26
0.32
0.38
0.45
0.51
0.58
0.58
0.62
0.67
0.71
Distance
(m)
1121
1124
1126
1128
1131
1133
1136
1163
1165
1168
1170
1172
1175
1177
1180
1182
1185
1258
1260
1262
1265
1267
1270
1272
1275
1277
1279
1282
1357
1360
1364
1367
1372
1374
1377
1379
1384
1386
1394
1396
1401
1403
1486
1488
1561
1564
1598
1600
1695
1698
1703
1705
1710
1713
1717
1720
1725
1727
1735
1737
1742
1744
1769
1771
1774
1776
1778
1781
1783
1786
1788
1791
1793
E:\FR\FM\13JYP2.SGM
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
13JYP2
40673
Grade
(%)
0.71
0.8
0.85
0.89
0.94
0.99
1.03
1.03
1.17
1.24
1.24
1.38
1.45
1.52
1.59
1.66
1.73
1.73
1.74
1.75
1.76
1.76
1.77
1.78
1.79
1.8
1.81
1.82
1.82
1.81
1.81
1.8
1.8
1.79
1.79
1.78
1.78
1.77
1.77
1.76
1.76
1.75
1.75
1.76
1.76
1.77
1.77
1.78
1.78
1.77
1.77
1.76
1.76
1.75
1.75
1.74
1.74
1.73
1.73
1.72
1.72
1.71
1.71
1.7
1.69
1.68
1.67
1.66
1.65
1.64
1.63
1.62
1.61
40674
Federal Register / Vol. 80, No. 133 / Monday, July 13, 2015 / Proposed Rules
ebenthall on DSK3VPTVN1PROD with MISCELLANEOUS
Distance
(m)
1818
1820
1822
1825
1827
1830
1832
1835
1837
1840
1842
1940
1943
1945
1947
1950
1952
1955
1957
1960
1962
1965
1989
1992
1994
1997
1999
2002
2004
2006
2009
2011
2014
2016
2019
2021
2024
2026
2029
2031
2034
2036
2038
2165
2167
2170
2172
2175
2177
2180
2182
2185
2187
2190
2192
2194
2197
2199
2202
2204
2207
2209
2212
2269
2271
2278
2281
2288
2291
2298
2301
2308
2311
Grade
(%)
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
VerDate Sep<11>2014
06:45 Jul 11, 2015
1.61
1.58
1.55
1.52
1.49
1.46
1.43
1.41
1.38
1.35
1.32
1.32
1.27
1.21
1.16
1.11
1.06
1.01
0.96
0.91
0.85
0.8
0.8
0.77
0.74
0.71
0.71
0.65
0.61
0.58
0.55
0.52
0.49
0.44
0.38
0.33
0.28
0.23
0.18
0.12
0.07
0.02
¥0.03
¥0.03
¥0.09
¥0.12
¥0.15
¥0.18
¥0.2
¥0.23
¥0.26
¥0.26
¥0.32
¥0.33
¥0.34
¥0.36
¥0.37
¥0.38
¥0.39
¥0.41
¥0.42
¥0.43
¥0.45
¥0.45
¥0.46
¥0.46
¥0.47
¥0.47
¥0.48
¥0.48
¥0.49
¥0.49
¥0.5
Jkt 235001
Distance
(m)
2360
2362
2367
2370
2377
2380
2436
2439
2483
2485
2508
2510
2530
2532
2672
2675
2694
2697
2717
2719
2817
2820
2881
2884
2899
2901
2916
2918
3034
3036
3157
3159
3233
3236
3398
3401
3570
3573
3580
3583
3588
3590
3789
3792
3802
3804
3861
3863
3866
3868
3871
3873
3875
3878
3880
3883
3885
3984
3986
3989
3991
3994
3996
3999
4001
4004
4006
4008
4011
4013
4016
4018
4021
PO 00000
Grade
(%)
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
Frm 00538
Fmt 4701
Sfmt 4702
¥0.5
¥0.49
¥0.49
¥0.48
¥0.48
¥0.47
¥0.47
¥0.46
¥0.46
¥0.45
¥0.45
¥0.44
¥0.44
¥0.43
¥0.43
¥0.44
¥0.44
¥0.45
¥0.45
¥0.46
¥0.46
¥0.47
¥0.47
¥0.46
¥0.46
¥0.45
¥0.45
¥0.44
¥0.44
¥0.43
¥0.43
¥0.42
¥0.42
¥0.43
¥0.43
¥0.42
¥0.42
¥0.43
¥0.43
¥0.44
¥0.44
¥0.45
¥0.45
¥0.44
¥0.44
¥0.43
¥0.43
¥0.45
¥0.47
¥0.49
¥0.51
¥0.53
¥0.55
¥0.57
¥0.59
¥0.59
¥0.63
¥0.63
¥0.65
¥0.66
¥0.68
¥0.69
¥0.71
¥0.72
¥0.74
¥0.75
¥0.75
¥0.78
¥0.8
¥0.81
¥0.83
¥0.84
¥0.84
Distance
(m)
4023
4026
4028
4031
4033
4110
4112
4115
4117
4119
4122
4124
4127
4129
4132
4233
4236
4243
4246
4288
4290
4385
4387
4399
4402
4429
4432
4434
4437
4439
4442
4444
4447
4449
4452
4454
4553
4556
4558
4561
4563
4566
4568
4571
4573
4576
4578
4603
4605
4608
4610
4613
4615
4618
4620
4623
4625
4628
4652
4655
4657
4660
4662
4665
4667
4670
4672
4675
4677
4751
4753
4756
4758
E:\FR\FM\13JYP2.SGM
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
13JYP2
Grade
(%)
¥0.87
¥0.89
¥0.9
¥0.92
¥0.93
¥0.93
¥0.95
¥0.99
¥1
¥1.02
¥1.04
¥1.06
¥1.07
¥1.09
¥1.11
¥1.11
¥1.1
¥1.1
¥1.09
¥1.09
¥1.08
¥1.08
¥1.07
¥1.07
¥1.06
¥1.06
¥1.04
¥1.03
¥1.01
¥0.99
¥0.97
¥0.97
¥0.93
¥0.91
¥0.9
¥0.88
¥0.88
¥0.83
¥0.83
¥0.74
¥0.74
¥0.64
¥0.59
¥0.55
¥0.5
¥0.45
¥0.41
¥0.41
¥0.39
¥0.37
¥0.35
¥0.33
¥0.32
¥0.3
¥0.28
¥0.26
¥0.24
¥0.23
¥0.23
¥0.2
¥0.2
¥0.16
¥0.14
¥0.11
¥0.09
¥0.07
¥0.05
¥0.02
0
0
¥0.01
¥0.01
¥0.02
Federal Register / Vol. 80, No. 133 / Monday, July 13, 2015 / Proposed Rules
ebenthall on DSK3VPTVN1PROD with MISCELLANEOUS
Distance
(m)
4760
4763
4765
4768
4770
4773
4873
4875
4880
4883
4885
4888
4893
4895
4976
4979
4981
4984
4991
4993
5072
5075
5084
5087
5094
5097
5107
5109
5200
5202
5210
5212
5340
5343
5345
5347
5352
5355
5357
5360
5362
5414
5416
5419
5421
5424
5426
5429
5431
5434
5436
5438
5512
5515
5517
5519
5522
5524
5527
5529
5532
5534
5537
5561
5564
5566
5568
5571
5573
5576
5578
5581
5583
Grade
(%)
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
VerDate Sep<11>2014
06:45 Jul 11, 2015
¥0.02
¥0.03
¥0.03
¥0.04
¥0.04
¥0.05
¥0.05
¥0.06
¥0.06
¥0.07
¥0.07
¥0.08
¥0.08
¥0.09
¥0.09
¥0.08
¥0.08
¥0.07
¥0.07
¥0.06
¥0.06
¥0.05
¥0.05
¥0.04
¥0.04
¥0.03
¥0.03
¥0.02
¥0.02
¥0.03
¥0.03
¥0.04
¥0.04
¥0.03
¥0.03
¥0.02
¥0.02
¥0.01
0
0
0.01
0.01
0.05
0.05
0.12
0.15
0.19
0.22
0.26
0.29
0.33
0.36
0.36
0.41
0.47
0.52
0.57
0.62
0.68
0.73
0.78
0.84
0.89
0.89
0.9
0.91
0.92
0.92
0.93
0.94
0.95
0.96
0.97
Jkt 235001
Distance
(m)
5586
5588
5590
5593
5595
5598
5600
5603
5605
5608
5610
5612
5615
5617
5620
5622
5625
5627
5630
5632
5634
5732
5734
5739
5742
5749
5752
5759
5761
5769
5771
5776
5779
5810
5813
5825
5828
5977
5980
5997
5999
6102
6105
6122
6124
6166
6169
6205
6208
6215
6218
6299
6301
6306
6308
6311
6313
6316
6318
6370
6372
6375
6377
6380
6382
6385
6387
6389
6392
6419
6421
6424
6426
PO 00000
Grade
(%)
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
Frm 00539
Fmt 4701
Sfmt 4702
0.98
1
1.02
1.03
1.05
1.07
1.09
1.11
1.13
1.15
1.17
1.18
1.19
1.2
1.21
1.21
1.23
1.24
1.25
1.26
1.27
1.27
1.26
1.26
1.25
1.25
1.24
1.24
1.23
1.23
1.22
1.22
1.21
1.21
1.2
1.2
1.19
1.19
1.2
1.2
1.21
1.21
1.2
1.2
1.19
1.19
1.2
1.2
1.21
1.21
1.22
1.22
1.21
1.21
1.19
1.19
1.18
1.18
1.17
1.17
1.16
1.15
1.15
1.14
1.14
1.13
1.13
1.12
1.11
1.11
1.07
1.04
1.04
Distance
(m)
6429
6431
6434
6436
6439
6441
6443
6517
6520
6522
6525
6527
6529
6532
6534
6537
6539
6542
6566
6569
6571
6574
6576
6579
6581
6584
6586
6589
6591
6665
6668
6670
6673
6675
6678
6680
6683
6685
6687
6690
6692
6695
6697
6700
6702
6705
6707
6710
6712
6715
6839
6841
6844
6846
6849
6851
6854
6856
6859
6861
6864
6866
6964
6966
6969
6971
6974
6976
6979
6981
6984
6986
6989
E:\FR\FM\13JYP2.SGM
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
13JYP2
40675
Grade
(%)
0.97
0.94
0.91
0.87
0.84
0.84
0.77
0.77
0.73
0.7
0.66
0.62
0.58
0.55
0.51
0.47
0.43
0.4
0.4
0.34
0.29
0.24
0.19
0.14
0.08
0.03
¥0.02
¥0.07
¥0.12
¥0.12
¥0.15
¥0.17
¥0.2
¥0.22
¥0.24
¥0.27
¥0.29
¥0.31
¥0.31
¥0.36
¥0.36
¥0.44
¥0.6
¥0.6
¥0.75
¥0.75
¥0.91
¥0.99
¥1.07
¥1.14
¥1.14
¥1.21
¥1.28
¥1.35
¥1.42
¥1.49
¥1.56
¥1.63
¥1.7
¥1.77
¥1.84
¥1.85
¥1.85
¥1.86
¥1.87
¥1.88
¥1.9
¥1.91
¥1.92
¥1.94
¥1.95
¥1.96
¥1.98
40676
Federal Register / Vol. 80, No. 133 / Monday, July 13, 2015 / Proposed Rules
ebenthall on DSK3VPTVN1PROD with MISCELLANEOUS
Distance
(m)
7115
7117
7128
7130
7138
7140
7295
7298
7323
7326
7336
7339
7451
7454
7456
7459
7461
7464
7466
7469
7471
7474
7477
7479
7482
7484
7487
7489
7492
7494
7574
7576
7579
7581
7584
7587
7589
7592
7594
7597
7599
7651
7653
7656
7658
7661
7663
7666
7668
7671
7673
7676
7679
7681
7684
7686
7689
7691
7694
7696
7699
7701
7827
7829
7832
7834
7837
7839
7841
7844
7846
7849
7851
Grade
(%)
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
VerDate Sep<11>2014
06:45 Jul 11, 2015
¥1.98
¥1.97
¥1.97
¥1.96
¥1.96
¥1.95
¥1.95
¥1.94
¥1.94
¥1.95
¥1.95
¥1.96
¥1.96
¥1.94
¥1.94
¥1.93
¥1.93
¥1.92
¥1.92
¥1.91
¥1.9
¥1.9
¥1.89
¥1.88
¥1.87
¥1.87
¥1.86
¥1.85
¥1.84
¥1.83
¥1.83
¥1.78
¥1.72
¥1.67
¥1.62
¥1.57
¥1.52
¥1.47
¥1.42
¥1.37
¥1.32
¥1.32
¥1.26
¥1.2
¥1.14
¥1.08
¥1.02
¥0.96
¥0.9
¥0.84
¥0.78
¥0.72
¥0.64
¥0.56
¥0.47
¥0.39
¥0.31
¥0.22
¥0.14
¥0.06
0.03
0.11
0.11
0.17
0.24
0.3
0.3
0.43
0.49
0.56
0.62
0.69
0.75
Jkt 235001
Distance
(m)
7949
7952
7954
7956
7959
7961
7964
7966
7969
7971
7973
7976
7983
7986
7988
7993
7995
8051
8054
8144
8147
8149
8152
8154
8157
8159
8162
8164
8167
8169
8248
8250
8265
8267
8270
8272
8275
8277
8280
8282
8285
8287
8290
8393
8395
8398
8400
8403
8405
8408
8410
8413
8440
8442
8444
8447
8449
8452
8454
8457
8459
8462
8464
8467
8469
8472
8474
8476
8479
8481
8484
8486
8489
PO 00000
Grade
(%)
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
Frm 00540
Fmt 4701
Sfmt 4702
0.75
0.74
0.72
0.72
0.7
0.68
0.67
0.66
0.64
0.63
0.62
0.61
0.61
0.6
0.59
0.59
0.58
0.58
0.57
0.57
0.58
0.58
0.59
0.6
0.6
0.61
0.62
0.63
0.63
0.64
0.64
0.65
0.65
0.66
0.65
0.64
0.63
0.63
0.62
0.61
0.61
0.6
0.59
0.59
0.6
0.61
0.61
0.62
0.63
0.64
0.65
0.66
0.66
0.67
0.68
0.69
0.7
0.71
0.72
0.72
0.73
0.73
0.75
0.76
0.77
0.78
0.79
0.79
0.8
0.81
0.82
0.83
0.84
Distance
(m)
8491
8494
8496
8499
8501
8503
8506
8508
8511
8513
8516
8518
8521
8523
8526
8528
8530
8533
8535
8538
8611
8614
8616
8618
8621
8623
8626
8628
8631
8633
8635
8662
8665
8667
8670
8672
8674
8677
8679
8682
8684
8711
8713
8716
8718
8721
8723
8725
8728
8730
8733
8735
8805
8808
8810
8812
8815
8817
8820
8822
8824
8827
8829
8831
8901
8903
8905
8908
8910
8913
8915
8917
8920
E:\FR\FM\13JYP2.SGM
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................
13JYP2
Grade
(%)
0.87
0.91
0.95
0.98
1.02
1.06
1.1
1.13
1.13
1.2
1.2
1.24
1.31
1.35
1.39
1.42
1.46
1.5
1.53
1.57
1.57
1.64
1.7
1.77
1.83
1.9
1.97
2.03
2.1
2.16
2.23
2.23
2.25
2.27
2.3
2.32
2.34
2.36
2.37
2.39
2.41
2.41
2.39
2.35
2.34
2.32
2.3
2.28
2.26
2.26
2.24
2.22
2.22
2.16
2.16
2.05
2.05
1.93
1.87
1.81
1.75
1.69
1.69
1.64
1.64
1.62
1.62
1.57
1.55
1.53
1.51
1.49
1.47
Federal Register / Vol. 80, No. 133 / Monday, July 13, 2015 / Proposed Rules
ebenthall on DSK3VPTVN1PROD with MISCELLANEOUS
Distance
(m)
Grade
(%)
8922 ..............................................
8925 ..............................................
8927 ..............................................
8930 ..............................................
8932 ..............................................
8934 ..............................................
8937 ..............................................
8939 ..............................................
8942 ..............................................
8944 ..............................................
8946 ..............................................
8949 ..............................................
8951 ..............................................
8954 ..............................................
8956 ..............................................
8959 ..............................................
8961 ..............................................
8963 ..............................................
8966 ..............................................
8968 ..............................................
8971 ..............................................
8973 ..............................................
9056 ..............................................
9059 ..............................................
9066 ..............................................
9069 ..............................................
9076 ..............................................
9079 ..............................................
9086 ..............................................
9088 ..............................................
9093 ..............................................
9096 ..............................................
9304 ..............................................
9306 ..............................................
9348 ..............................................
9350 ..............................................
9487 ..............................................
9490 ..............................................
9500 ..............................................
9502 ..............................................
9547 ..............................................
9549 ..............................................
9610 ..............................................
9613 ..............................................
9706 ..............................................
9709 ..............................................
9711 ..............................................
9714 ..............................................
9716 ..............................................
9719 ..............................................
9721 ..............................................
9723 ..............................................
9726 ..............................................
9728 ..............................................
9731 ..............................................
9765 ..............................................
9768 ..............................................
9773 ..............................................
9775 ..............................................
9927 ..............................................
9930 ..............................................
9932 ..............................................
9934 ..............................................
9937 ..............................................
9939 ..............................................
9942 ..............................................
9944 ..............................................
9947 ..............................................
9949 ..............................................
9952 ..............................................
10006 ............................................
10008 ............................................
10011 ............................................
VerDate Sep<11>2014
06:45 Jul 11, 2015
Jkt 235001
1.45
1.43
1.43
1.41
1.39
1.36
1.36
1.32
1.32
1.29
1.27
1.25
1.23
1.22
1.2
1.18
1.16
1.15
1.13
1.11
1.09
1.07
1.07
1.06
1.06
1.05
1.05
1.04
1.04
1.03
1.03
1.02
1.02
1.01
1.01
1
1
0.99
0.99
0.98
0.98
0.97
0.97
0.96
0.96
0.97
0.98
0.99
1
1
1.01
1.02
1.03
1.04
1.05
1.05
1.06
1.06
1.07
1.07
1.06
1.05
1.04
1.03
1.02
1
0.99
0.98
0.98
0.96
0.96
0.95
0.95
Distance
(m)
10013
10015
10018
10020
10025
10028
10050
10052
10055
10057
10060
10062
10065
10067
10070
10072
10074
10148
10151
10153
10156
10158
10161
10163
10165
10168
10170
10173
10175
10178
10180
10183
10185
10188
10190
10192
10195
10197
10200
10202
10205
10207
10210
10212
10215
10217
10220
10222
10224
10227
10229
10232
10234
10237
10239
10242
10244
10247
10249
10252
10254
10256
10259
10261
10264
10266
10269
10271
10370
10373
10375
10378
10380
PO 00000
Grade
(%)
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
Frm 00541
Fmt 4701
Sfmt 4702
0.94
0.93
0.93
0.92
0.92
0.91
0.91
0.9
0.89
0.89
0.88
0.87
0.86
0.85
0.84
0.83
0.82
0.82
0.81
0.79
0.77
0.76
0.74
0.72
0.71
0.69
0.68
0.66
0.66
0.63
0.61
0.59
0.58
0.56
0.55
0.53
0.51
0.5
0.49
0.47
0.46
0.45
0.44
0.42
0.41
0.4
0.39
0.38
0.38
0.35
0.34
0.33
0.32
0.3
0.29
0.28
0.27
0.26
0.21
0.21
0.1
0.05
0
¥0.05
¥0.1
¥0.15
¥0.2
¥0.25
¥0.25
¥0.27
¥0.29
¥0.3
¥0.3
Distance
(m)
10383
10385
10387
10390
10392
10395
10397
10400
10402
10405
10407
10410
10412
10415
10417
10420
10422
10425
10427
10429
10432
10434
10437
10439
10442
10444
10494
10496
10499
10501
10504
10506
10509
10511
10514
10516
10519
10521
10583
10585
10605
10608
10667
10669
10672
10674
10677
10679
10682
10684
10687
10689
10692
10716
10719
10721
10724
10726
10729
10731
10734
10736
10739
10741
10744
10840
10843
10845
10848
10850
10853
10855
10858
E:\FR\FM\13JYP2.SGM
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
13JYP2
40677
Grade
(%)
¥0.34
¥0.36
¥0.38
¥0.39
¥0.39
¥0.43
¥0.45
¥0.48
¥0.5
¥0.5
¥0.55
¥0.58
¥0.6
¥0.63
¥0.65
¥0.68
¥0.68
¥0.69
¥0.7
¥0.7
¥0.71
¥0.72
¥0.72
¥0.73
¥0.73
¥0.74
¥0.74
¥0.75
¥0.76
¥0.77
¥0.78
¥0.79
¥0.8
¥0.8
¥0.81
¥0.81
¥0.82
¥0.83
¥0.83
¥0.82
¥0.82
¥0.81
¥0.81
¥0.82
¥0.82
¥0.83
¥0.83
¥0.84
¥0.84
¥0.85
¥0.86
¥0.86
¥0.87
¥0.87
¥0.9
¥0.92
¥0.95
¥0.98
¥1
¥1
¥1.06
¥1.08
¥1.11
¥1.11
¥1.14
¥1.14
¥1.18
¥1.18
¥1.28
¥1.33
¥1.38
¥1.43
¥1.47
40678
Federal Register / Vol. 80, No. 133 / Monday, July 13, 2015 / Proposed Rules
ebenthall on DSK3VPTVN1PROD with MISCELLANEOUS
Distance
(m)
10860
10863
10865
10890
10892
10895
10897
10900
10902
10905
10907
10910
10912
10915
10917
10920
10922
10925
10927
10930
10932
10935
10937
10940
11040
11043
11048
11050
11055
11058
11060
11063
11065
11124
11126
11139
11141
11169
11172
11286
11289
11306
11309
11327
11329
11334
11337
11396
11398
11401
11403
11406
11408
11411
11413
11416
11419
11421
11472
11475
11477
11480
11482
11485
11488
11490
11493
11495
11498
11549
11551
11554
11556
Grade
(%)
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
VerDate Sep<11>2014
06:45 Jul 11, 2015
¥1.52
¥1.57
¥1.62
¥1.62
¥1.64
¥1.66
¥1.68
¥1.7
¥1.72
¥1.74
¥1.76
¥1.78
¥1.8
¥1.82
¥1.84
¥1.85
¥1.87
¥1.89
¥1.91
¥1.93
¥1.95
¥1.97
¥1.99
¥2.01
¥2.01
¥2
¥2
¥1.98
¥1.98
¥1.97
¥1.96
¥1.96
¥1.95
¥1.95
¥1.94
¥1.94
¥1.93
¥1.93
¥1.94
¥1.94
¥1.95
¥1.95
¥1.96
¥1.96
¥1.95
¥1.95
¥1.94
¥1.94
¥1.92
¥1.91
¥1.89
¥1.88
¥1.87
¥1.85
¥1.84
¥1.83
¥1.81
¥1.8
¥1.8
¥1.77
¥1.74
¥1.72
¥1.72
¥1.66
¥1.63
¥1.6
¥1.58
¥1.55
¥1.52
¥1.52
¥1.5
¥1.49
¥1.47
Jkt 235001
Distance
(m)
11559
11561
11564
11567
11569
11572
11574
11625
11628
11630
11633
11635
11638
11643
11645
11648
11650
11653
11655
11658
11660
11666
11668
11671
11673
11746
11749
11779
11782
11880
11882
11887
11890
11895
11897
11902
11905
11908
11910
11913
11915
11918
11920
11923
11925
11928
11933
11935
11943
11945
11950
11953
12003
12006
12008
12011
12013
12016
12018
12021
12023
12026
12028
12078
12081
12083
12086
12088
12091
12094
12096
12099
12101
PO 00000
Grade
(%)
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
Frm 00542
Fmt 4701
Sfmt 4702
¥1.45
¥1.43
¥1.42
¥1.4
¥1.38
¥1.36
¥1.35
¥1.35
¥1.34
¥1.34
¥1.33
¥1.33
¥1.32
¥1.32
¥1.31
¥1.31
¥1.3
¥1.3
¥1.29
¥1.29
¥1.28
¥1.28
¥1.27
¥1.27
¥1.26
¥1.26
¥1.27
¥1.27
¥1.28
¥1.28
¥1.29
¥1.29
¥1.3
¥1.3
¥1.31
¥1.31
¥1.32
¥1.33
¥1.33
¥1.34
¥1.35
¥1.35
¥1.36
¥1.36
¥1.37
¥1.38
¥1.38
¥1.39
¥1.39
¥1.4
¥1.4
¥1.41
¥1.41
¥1.43
¥1.45
¥1.48
¥1.5
¥1.52
¥1.55
¥1.57
¥1.59
¥1.61
¥1.64
¥1.64
¥1.65
¥1.67
¥1.68
¥1.68
¥1.71
¥1.73
¥1.74
¥1.76
¥1.77
Distance
(m)
12104
12129
12131
12134
12136
12139
12141
12144
12146
12149
12151
12154
12157
12159
12162
12164
12167
12169
12172
12174
12177
12179
12281
12283
12286
12288
12293
12296
12298
12301
12303
12306
12380
12382
12390
12392
12397
12400
12408
12410
12418
12420
12425
12428
12435
12438
12446
12448
12453
12456
12463
12466
12474
12476
12481
12484
12509
12512
12514
12517
12519
12522
12525
12527
12530
12532
12535
12611
12614
12616
12619
12621
12624
E:\FR\FM\13JYP2.SGM
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
13JYP2
Grade
(%)
¥1.79
¥1.79
¥1.8
¥1.8
¥1.81
¥1.81
¥1.82
¥1.82
¥1.83
¥1.84
¥1.84
¥1.85
¥1.85
¥1.86
¥1.86
¥1.87
¥1.88
¥1.88
¥1.89
¥1.89
¥1.9
¥1.91
¥1.91
¥1.9
¥1.9
¥1.89
¥1.89
¥1.88
¥1.88
¥1.87
¥1.87
¥1.86
¥1.86
¥1.87
¥1.87
¥1.88
¥1.88
¥1.89
¥1.89
¥1.9
¥1.9
¥1.91
¥1.91
¥1.92
¥1.92
¥1.93
¥1.93
¥1.94
¥1.94
¥1.95
¥1.95
¥1.96
¥1.96
¥1.97
¥1.97
¥1.98
¥1.98
¥1.96
¥1.95
¥1.93
¥1.92
¥1.9
¥1.89
¥1.87
¥1.86
¥1.84
¥1.83
¥1.83
¥1.8
¥1.77
¥1.75
¥1.72
¥1.69
Federal Register / Vol. 80, No. 133 / Monday, July 13, 2015 / Proposed Rules
ebenthall on DSK3VPTVN1PROD with MISCELLANEOUS
Distance
(m)
12626
12629
12632
12634
12637
12639
12642
12644
12647
12649
12652
12655
12657
12660
12662
12665
12667
12670
12672
12675
12677
12680
12683
12685
12688
12791
12793
12796
12798
12801
12803
12806
12808
12811
12813
12816
12818
12821
12823
12826
12828
12831
12833
12836
12838
12888
12890
12893
12895
12898
12900
12902
12905
12907
12910
12912
12999
13001
13032
13035
13039
13042
13044
13047
13049
13051
13158
13160
13163
13165
13167
13170
13175
Grade
(%)
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
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............................................
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............................................
............................................
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............................................
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............................................
............................................
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............................................
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............................................
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............................................
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............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
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............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
VerDate Sep<11>2014
06:45 Jul 11, 2015
¥1.66
¥1.63
¥1.61
¥1.58
¥1.55
¥1.52
¥1.49
¥1.47
¥1.44
¥1.41
¥1.38
¥1.35
¥1.33
¥1.3
¥1.27
¥1.18
¥1.09
¥0.99
¥0.9
¥0.81
¥0.72
¥0.62
¥0.53
¥0.44
¥0.35
¥0.35
¥0.16
¥0.06
0.03
0.13
0.22
0.31
0.41
0.5
0.6
0.66
0.72
0.79
0.85
0.91
0.97
1.04
1.1
1.1
1.22
1.22
1.25
1.27
1.29
1.31
1.33
1.35
1.37
1.39
1.41
1.43
1.43
1.42
1.42
1.41
1.41
1.4
1.4
1.39
1.39
1.38
1.38
1.39
1.39
1.4
1.4
1.41
1.41
Jkt 235001
Distance
(m)
13177
13295
13297
13332
13334
13408
13410
13504
13506
13759
13761
13864
13867
13882
13884
13896
13899
13909
13911
14029
14031
14036
14039
14044
14046
14051
14053
14058
14061
14159
14161
14164
14166
14169
14171
14174
14176
14178
14181
14183
14208
14210
14213
14215
14218
14220
14223
14225
14228
14230
14232
14257
14259
14262
14264
14267
14269
14272
14274
14277
14279
14282
14379
14381
14384
14386
14389
14391
14393
14396
14398
14401
14403
PO 00000
Grade
(%)
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
Frm 00543
Fmt 4701
Sfmt 4702
1.42
1.42
1.43
1.43
1.42
1.42
1.41
1.41
1.4
1.4
1.41
1.41
1.42
1.42
1.43
1.43
1.44
1.44
1.45
1.45
1.44
1.44
1.45
1.45
1.46
1.46
1.47
1.47
1.48
1.48
1.46
1.44
1.42
1.4
1.38
1.36
1.34
1.33
1.31
1.29
1.29
1.26
1.23
1.19
1.16
1.13
1.1
1.07
1.04
1
0.97
0.97
0.91
0.85
0.78
0.72
0.66
0.59
0.53
0.47
0.4
0.34
0.34
0.21
0.08
¥0.04
¥0.17
¥0.3
¥0.43
¥0.56
¥0.68
¥0.81
¥0.94
Distance
(m)
14526
14528
14531
14533
14536
14538
14541
14543
14546
14548
14551
14678
14680
14685
14687
14695
14697
14802
14805
14807
14810
14815
14817
14820
14823
14828
14830
14835
14838
14843
14845
15028
15031
15038
15041
15048
15051
15076
15078
15081
15083
15086
15088
15091
15093
15096
15098
15226
15229
15231
15234
15236
15239
15241
15244
15246
15249
15251
15352
15354
15357
15359
15362
15364
15367
15369
15372
15374
15377
15379
15382
15384
15387
E:\FR\FM\13JYP2.SGM
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
13JYP2
40679
Grade
(%)
¥0.94
¥0.98
¥1.03
¥1.07
¥1.12
¥1.16
¥1.21
¥1.25
¥1.3
¥1.34
¥1.39
¥1.39
¥1.38
¥1.38
¥1.37
¥1.37
¥1.36
¥1.36
¥1.35
¥1.35
¥1.34
¥1.34
¥1.33
¥1.33
¥1.32
¥1.32
¥1.31
¥1.31
¥1.3
¥1.3
¥1.29
¥1.29
¥1.3
¥1.3
¥1.31
¥1.31
¥1.32
¥1.32
¥1.33
¥1.33
¥1.34
¥1.35
¥1.36
¥1.37
¥1.38
¥1.39
¥1.4
¥1.4
¥1.38
¥1.36
¥1.34
¥1.32
¥1.3
¥1.27
¥1.25
¥1.23
¥1.21
¥1.19
¥1.19
¥1.1
¥1
¥0.91
¥0.82
¥0.73
¥0.64
¥0.55
¥0.46
¥0.37
¥0.28
¥0.2
¥0.12
¥0.04
0.03
40680
Federal Register / Vol. 80, No. 133 / Monday, July 13, 2015 / Proposed Rules
ebenthall on DSK3VPTVN1PROD with MISCELLANEOUS
Distance
(m)
15389
15392
15394
15397
15399
15402
15501
15503
15506
15508
15511
15513
15516
15518
15521
15523
15525
15598
15601
15603
15606
15608
15610
15613
15615
15618
15620
15623
15625
15627
15630
15632
15635
15637
15639
15642
15644
15647
15721
15723
15726
15728
15730
15733
15738
15740
15742
15745
15747
15749
15752
15754
15757
15759
15761
15764
15773
15776
15783
15785
15867
15870
15877
15879
15962
15965
15977
15979
16141
16144
16259
16262
16266
Grade
(%)
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
VerDate Sep<11>2014
06:45 Jul 11, 2015
Jkt 235001
0.11
0.19
0.26
0.34
0.42
0.49
0.49
0.59
0.69
0.79
0.89
0.99
1.08
1.18
1.28
1.38
1.48
1.48
1.51
1.55
1.58
1.62
1.65
1.68
1.72
1.75
1.79
1.82
1.83
1.85
1.85
1.87
1.88
1.89
1.91
1.92
1.93
1.94
1.94
1.93
1.93
1.92
1.92
1.91
1.91
1.9
1.9
1.89
1.89
1.88
1.88
1.87
1.87
1.86
1.86
1.85
1.85
1.84
1.84
1.83
1.83
1.84
1.84
1.85
1.85
1.86
1.86
1.87
1.87
1.88
1.88
1.89
1.89
Distance
(m)
16269
16276
16279
16328
16330
16333
16335
16338
16340
16342
16345
16347
16350
16352
16377
16379
16382
16384
16387
16389
16392
16394
16396
16399
16401
16500
16502
16504
16507
16509
16512
16514
16517
16519
16522
16524
16527
16529
16531
16534
16536
16539
16541
16544
16546
16549
16625
16627
16630
16632
16634
16637
16639
16642
16644
16649
16651
16678
16680
16692
16695
16772
16774
16777
16779
16782
16784
16789
16791
16897
16899
16919
16921
PO 00000
Grade
(%)
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
Frm 00544
Fmt 4701
Sfmt 4702
1.9
1.9
1.91
1.91
1.9
1.89
1.88
1.87
1.86
1.85
1.85
1.84
1.83
1.82
1.82
1.79
1.77
1.75
1.72
1.7
1.68
1.65
1.63
1.61
1.58
1.58
1.54
1.5
1.45
1.41
1.36
1.32
1.27
1.23
1.19
1.14
1.11
1.08
1.05
1.02
1
0.97
0.94
0.91
0.88
0.85
0.85
0.84
0.83
0.81
0.79
0.79
0.77
0.75
0.74
0.74
0.73
0.73
0.74
0.74
0.75
0.75
0.76
0.76
0.77
0.77
0.78
0.78
0.79
0.79
0.78
0.78
0.77
Distance
(m)
16936
16939
17012
17015
17062
17064
17081
17084
17103
17106
17153
17155
17177
17180
17266
17268
17278
17280
17293
17295
17408
17410
17413
17415
17418
17420
17423
17425
17428
17430
17455
17457
17460
17462
17464
17467
17469
17472
17474
17477
17479
17528
17531
17533
17536
17538
17541
17543
17546
17548
17551
17553
17649
17652
17654
17657
17659
17662
17664
17667
17669
17672
17674
17677
17801
17803
17806
17808
17811
17813
17816
17818
17821
E:\FR\FM\13JYP2.SGM
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
13JYP2
Grade
(%)
0.77
0.76
0.76
0.77
0.77
0.78
0.78
0.79
0.79
0.8
0.8
0.81
0.81
0.82
0.82
0.81
0.81
0.8
0.8
0.79
0.79
0.77
0.76
0.75
0.74
0.74
0.73
0.72
0.71
0.7
0.7
0.68
0.66
0.64
0.62
0.59
0.57
0.55
0.53
0.51
0.49
0.49
0.43
0.37
0.31
0.31
0.18
0.12
0.06
0
¥0.06
¥0.12
¥0.12
¥0.13
¥0.27
¥0.42
¥0.42
¥0.71
¥0.86
¥1
¥1.15
¥1.29
¥1.44
¥1.58
¥1.58
¥1.61
¥1.64
¥1.67
¥1.69
¥1.72
¥1.75
¥1.78
¥1.81
Federal Register / Vol. 80, No. 133 / Monday, July 13, 2015 / Proposed Rules
ebenthall on DSK3VPTVN1PROD with MISCELLANEOUS
Distance
(m)
17823
17826
17851
17854
17856
17859
17861
17864
17866
17869
17871
17874
17876
17879
17884
17886
17889
17891
17894
17896
17899
17901
18028
18030
18033
18035
18038
18040
18043
18045
18048
18051
18053
18180
18182
18185
18188
18190
18193
18195
18198
18200
18203
18205
18231
18233
18236
18238
18241
18243
18246
18248
18251
18254
18256
18307
18309
18312
18315
18317
18320
18322
18325
18327
18330
18332
18411
18414
18416
18419
18424
18427
18432
Grade
(%)
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
VerDate Sep<11>2014
06:45 Jul 11, 2015
¥1.83
¥1.86
¥1.86
¥1.87
¥1.88
¥1.89
¥1.89
¥1.9
¥1.91
¥1.92
¥1.92
¥1.93
¥1.94
¥1.93
¥1.93
¥1.91
¥1.91
¥1.9
¥1.89
¥1.88
¥1.88
¥1.87
¥1.87
¥1.85
¥1.83
¥1.83
¥1.79
¥1.77
¥1.75
¥1.73
¥1.71
¥1.69
¥1.67
¥1.67
¥1.69
¥1.7
¥1.71
¥1.72
¥1.74
¥1.75
¥1.76
¥1.78
¥1.79
¥1.8
¥1.8
¥1.81
¥1.83
¥1.84
¥1.85
¥1.87
¥1.88
¥1.89
¥1.91
¥1.92
¥1.93
¥1.93
¥1.95
¥1.96
¥1.98
¥1.99
¥2
¥2.02
¥2.03
¥2.05
¥2.06
¥2.08
¥2.08
¥2.07
¥2.07
¥2.06
¥2.06
¥2.05
¥2.05
Jkt 235001
Distance
(m)
18434
18437
18439
18442
18445
18447
18450
18452
18455
18457
18460
18463
18465
18468
18470
18473
18475
18478
18480
18483
18486
18591
18593
18596
18598
18603
18606
18609
18611
18724
18727
18737
18739
18768
18770
18775
18778
18783
18786
18791
18793
18801
18804
18809
18811
18816
18819
18845
18847
18850
18852
18855
18858
18860
18863
18865
18868
18870
18978
18980
18983
18985
18988
18991
18993
18996
18998
19001
19003
19006
19008
19011
19013
PO 00000
Grade
(%)
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
............................................
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Grade
(%)
¥0.18
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¥0.02
0.06
0.06
0.08
0.1
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0.15
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0.19
0.22
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0.26
0.28
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Distance
(m)
20060
20063
20065
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20082
20156
20158
20193
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0
0
PART 1039—CONTROL OF EMISSIONS
FROM NEW AND IN-USE NONROAD
COMPRESSION-IGNITION ENGINES
117. The authority citation for part
1039 continues to read as follows:
■
Authority: 42 U.S.C. 7401–7671q.
Subpart A—Overview and Applicability
118. Section 1039.2 is revised to read
as follows:
■
§ 1039.2 Who is responsible for
compliance?
The regulations in this part 1039
contain provisions that affect both
manufacturers and others. However, the
requirements of this part are generally
addressed to the manufacturer. The term
‘‘you’’ generally means the
manufacturer, as defined in § 1039.801,
especially for issues related to
certification. Note that for engines that
become new after being placed into
service (such as engines converted from
highway or stationary use), the
requirements that normally apply for
manufacturers of freshly manufactured
engines apply to the importer or any
other entity we allow to obtain a
certificate of conformity.
■ 119. Section 1039.5 is amended by
revising the introductory text, adding
paragraph (a)(2)(iii), and revising
paragraph (e) to read as follows:
ebenthall on DSK3VPTVN1PROD with MISCELLANEOUS
§ 1039.5 Which engines are excluded from
this part’s requirements?
This part does not apply to certain
nonroad engines, as follows:
(a) * * *
(2) * * *
(iii) Locomotive engines produced
under the provisions of 40 CFR
1033.625.
*
*
*
*
*
(e) Engines used in recreational
vehicles. Engines certified to meet the
requirements of 40 CFR part 1051 are
not subject to the provisions of this part
1039.
■ 120. Section 1039.30 is revised to read
as follows:
VerDate Sep<11>2014
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§ 1039.30
Submission of information.
Unless we specify otherwise, send all
reports and requests for approval to the
Designated Compliance Officer (see
§ 1039.801). See § 1039.825 for
additional reporting and recordkeeping
provisions.
Subpart B—Emission Standards and
Related Requirements
121. Section 1039.102 is amended by
revising paragraph (e)(3) to read as
follows:
■
§ 1039.102 What exhaust emission
standards and phase-in allowances apply
for my engines in model year 2014 and
earlier?
*
*
*
*
*
(e) * * *
(3) You may use NOX +NMHC
emission credits to certify an engine
family to the alternate NOX +NMHC
standards in this paragraph (e)(3)
instead of the otherwise applicable
alternate NOX and NMHC standards.
Calculate the alternate NOX +NMHC
standard by adding 0.1 g/kW-hr to the
numerical value of the applicable
alternate NOX standard of paragraph
(e)(1) or (2) of this section. Engines
certified to the NOX +NMHC standards
of this paragraph (e)(3) may not generate
emission credits. The FEL caps for
engine families certified under this
paragraph (e)(3) are the previously
applicable NOX +NMHC standards of 40
CFR 89.112 (generally the Tier 3
standards).
*
*
*
*
*
■ 122. Section 1039.104 is amended by
revising paragraph (g)(5) and adding
paragraph (i) to read as follows:
§ 1039.104 Are there interim provisions
that apply only for a limited time?
*
*
*
*
*
(g) * * *
(5) You may certify engines under this
paragraph (g) in any model year
provided for in Table 1 of this section
without regard to whether or not the
engine family’s FEL is at or below the
otherwise applicable FEL cap. For
example, a 200 kW engine certified to
the NOX + NMHC standard of
§ 1039.102(e)(3) with an FEL equal to
the FEL cap of 4.0 g/kW-hr may
nevertheless be certified under this
paragraph (g).
*
*
*
*
*
(i) Lead time for diagnostic controls.
Model year 2017 and earlier engines are
not subject to the requirements for
diagnostic controls specified in
§ 1039.110.
*
*
*
*
*
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123. Section 1039.107 is amended by
revising paragraph (b)(2) to read as
follows:
■
§ 1039.107 What evaporative emission
standards and requirements apply?
*
*
*
*
*
(b) * * *
(2) Present test data to show that
equipment using your engines meets the
evaporative emission standards we
specify in this section if you do not use
design-based certification under 40 CFR
1048.245.
■ 124. Section 1039.110 is added to
subpart B to read as follows:
§ 1039.110 Recording reductant use and
other diagnostic functions.
(a) Engines equipped with SCR
systems using a reductant other than the
engine’s fuel must have a diagnostic
system that monitors reductant quality
and tank levels and alert operators to
the need to refill the reductant tank
before it is empty, or to replace the
reductant if it does not meet your
concentration specifications. Unless we
approve other alerts, use a warning
lamp or an audible alarm. You do not
need to separately monitor reductant
quality if you include an exhaust NOX
sensor (or other sensor) that allows you
to determine inadequate reductant
quality. However, tank level must be
monitored in all cases.
(b) You may equip your engine with
other diagnostic features. If you do, they
must be designed to allow us to read
and interpret the codes. Note that
§ 1039.205 requires you to provide us
any information needed to read, record,
and interpret all the information
broadcast by an engine’s onboard
computers and electronic control units.
■ 125. Section 1039.120 is amended by
revising paragraph (b) introductory text
to read as follows:
§ 1039.120 What emission-related warranty
requirements apply to me?
*
*
*
*
*
(b) Warranty period. Your emissionrelated warranty must be valid for at
least as long as the minimum warranty
periods listed in this paragraph (b) in
hours of operation and years, whichever
comes first. You may offer an emissionrelated warranty more generous than we
require. The emission-related warranty
for the engine may not be shorter than
any basic mechanical warranty you
provide without charge for the engine.
Similarly, the emission-related warranty
for any component may not be shorter
than any warranty you provide without
charge for that component. This means
that your warranty may not treat
emission-related and nonemissionrelated defects differently for any
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component. If an engine has no hour
meter, we base the warranty periods in
this paragraph (b) only on the engine’s
age (in years). The warranty period
begins when the engine is placed into
service. The minimum warranty periods
are shown in the following table:
*
*
*
*
*
■ 126. Section 1039.125 is amended by
revising paragraphs (a)(2)(i), (a)(3)(i), (c),
and (e) to read as follows:
§ 1039.125 What maintenance instructions
must I give to buyers?
ebenthall on DSK3VPTVN1PROD with MISCELLANEOUS
*
*
*
*
*
(a) * * *
(2) * * *
(i) For EGR-related filters and coolers,
DEF filters, PCV valves, crankcase vent
filters, and fuel injector tips (cleaning
only), the minimum interval is 1,500
hours.
*
*
*
*
*
(3) * * *
(i) For EGR-related filters and coolers,
DEF filters, PCV valves, crankcase vent
filters, and fuel injector tips (cleaning
only), the minimum interval is 1,500
hours.
*
*
*
*
*
(c) Special maintenance. You may
specify more frequent maintenance to
address problems related to special
situations, such as atypical engine
operation. You must clearly state that
this additional maintenance is
associated with the special situation you
are addressing. You may also address
maintenance of low-use engines (such
as recreational or stand-by engines) by
specifying the maintenance interval in
terms of calendar months or years in
addition to your specifications in terms
of engine operating hours. All special
maintenance instructions must be
consistent with good engineering
judgment. We may disapprove your
maintenance instructions if we
determine that you have specified
special maintenance steps to address
maintenance that is unlikely to occur in
use, or engine operation that is not
atypical. For example, this paragraph (c)
does not allow you to design engines
that require special maintenance for a
certain type of expected operation. If we
determine that certain maintenance
items do not qualify as special
maintenance under this paragraph (c),
you may identify this as recommended
additional maintenance under
paragraph (b) of this section.
*
*
*
*
*
(e) Maintenance that is not emissionrelated. For maintenance unrelated to
emission controls, you may schedule
any amount of inspection or
maintenance. You may also take these
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06:45 Jul 11, 2015
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inspection or maintenance steps during
service accumulation on your emissiondata engines, as long as they are
reasonable and technologically
necessary. This might include adding
engine oil, changing air, fuel, or oil
filters, servicing engine-cooling systems
or fuel-water separator cartridges or
elements, and adjusting idle speed,
governor, engine bolt torque, valve lash,
or injector lash. You may not perform
this nonemission-related maintenance
on emission-data engines more often
than the least frequent intervals that you
recommend to the ultimate purchaser.
*
*
*
*
*
■ 127. Section 1039.130 is amended by
adding paragraph (b)(4) and revising
paragraph (b)(5) to read as follows:
§ 1039.130 What installation instructions
must I give to equipment manufacturers?
*
*
*
*
*
(b) * * *
(4) Describe any necessary steps for
installing the diagnostic system
described in § 1039.110.
(5) Describe how your certification is
limited for any type of application. For
example, if your engines are certified
only for constant-speed operation, tell
equipment manufacturers not to install
the engines in variable-speed
applications.
*
*
*
*
*
■ 128. Section 1039.135 is amended by
revising paragraphs (c)(2) and (d) to read
as follows:
§ 1039.135 How must I label and identify
the engines I produce?
*
*
*
*
*
(c) * * *
(2) Include your full corporate name
and trademark. You may identify
another company and use its trademark
instead of yours if you comply with the
branding provisions of 40 CFR 1068.45.
*
*
*
*
*
(d) You may add information to the
emission control information label as
follows:
(1) If your emission control
information label includes all the
information described in paragraphs
(c)(5) through (10) of this section, you
may identify other emission standards
that the engine meets or does not meet
(such as international standards). You
may include this information by adding
it to the statement we specify or by
including a separate statement.
(2) You may add other information to
ensure that the engine will be properly
maintained and used.
(3) You may add appropriate features
to prevent counterfeit labels. For
example, you may include the engine’s
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40683
unique identification number on the
label.
*
*
*
*
*
Subpart C—Certifying Engine Families
129. Section 1039.201 is amended by
revising paragraphs (a) and (g) to read as
follows:
■
§ 1039.201 What are the general
requirements for obtaining a certificate of
conformity?
(a) You must send us a separate
application for a certificate of
conformity for each engine family. A
certificate of conformity is valid for new
production from the indicated effective
date until the end of the model year for
which it is issued, which may not
extend beyond December 31 of that
year. No new certificate will be issued
after December 31 of the model year.
You may amend your application for
certification after the end of the model
year in certain circumstances as
described in §§ 1039.220 and 1039.225.
You must renew your certification
annually for any engines you continue
to produce.
*
*
*
*
*
(g) We may require you to deliver
your test engines to a facility we
designate for our testing (see
§ 1039.235(c)). Alternatively, you may
choose to deliver another engine that is
identical in all material respects to the
test engine, or another engine that we
determine can appropriately serve as an
emission-data engine for the engine
family.
*
*
*
*
*
■ 130. Section 1039.205 is amended by
revising paragraph (r)(1) and adding
paragraph (bb) to read as follows:
§ 1039.205 What must I include in my
application?
*
*
*
*
*
(r) * * *
(1) Report all valid test results
involving measurement of pollutants for
which emission standards apply. Also
indicate whether there are test results
from invalid tests or from any other tests
of the emission-data engine, whether or
not they were conducted according to
the test procedures of subpart F of this
part. We may require you to report these
additional test results. We may ask you
to send other information to confirm
that your tests were valid under the
requirements of this part and 40 CFR
part 1065.
*
*
*
*
*
(bb) For imported engines or
equipment, identify the following:
(1) Describe your normal practice for
importing engines. For example, this
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may include identifying the names and
addresses of any agents you have
authorized to import your engines.
(2) For engines below 560 kW,
identify a test facility in the United
States where you can test your engines
if we select them for testing under a
selective enforcement audit, as specified
in 40 CFR part 1068, subpart E.
■ 131. Section 1039.220 is amended by
revising the section heading as to read
as follows:
§ 1039.220 How do I amend my
maintenance instructions?
*
*
*
*
*
132. Section 1039.225 is amended by
revising the introductory text and
adding paragraph (b)(4) to read as
follows:
■
§ 1039.225 How do I amend my application
for certification?
Before we issue you a certificate of
conformity, you may amend your
application to include new or modified
engine configurations, subject to the
provisions of this section. After we have
issued your certificate of conformity,
but before the end of the model year,
you may send us an amended
application requesting that we include
new or modified engine configurations
within the scope of the certificate,
subject to the provisions of this section.
Before the end of the model year, you
must amend your application if any
changes occur with respect to any
information that is included or should
be included in your application. After
the end of the model year, you may
amend your application only to update
maintenance instructions as described
in § 1039.220 or to modify an FEL as
described in paragraph (f) of this
section.
*
*
*
*
*
(b) * * *
(4) Include any other information
needed to make your application correct
and complete.
*
*
*
*
*
■ 133. Section 1039.230 is amended by
revising paragraph (b)(1) to read as
follows:
ebenthall on DSK3VPTVN1PROD with MISCELLANEOUS
§ 1039.230
families?
How do I select engine
*
*
*
*
*
(b) * * *
(1) The combustion cycle and fuel.
However, you do not need to separate
dual-fuel and flexible-fuel engines into
separate engine families.
*
*
*
*
*
■ 134. Section 1039.235 is amended by
revising paragraphs (a), (b), (c)(4), and
(d)(1) to read as follows:
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§ 1039.235 What testing requirements
apply for certification?
*
*
*
*
*
(a) Select an emission-data engine
from each engine family for testing.
Select the engine configuration with the
highest volume of fuel injected per
cylinder per combustion cycle at the
point of maximum torque—unless good
engineering judgment indicates that a
different engine configuration is more
likely to exceed (or have emissions
nearer to) an applicable emission
standard or FEL. If two or more engines
have the same fueling rate at maximum
torque, select the one with the highest
fueling rate at rated speed. In making
this selection, consider all factors
expected to affect emission-control
performance and compliance with the
standards, including emission levels of
all exhaust constituents, especially NOX
and PM.
(b) Test your emission-data engines
using the procedures and equipment
specified in subpart F of this part. In the
case of dual-fuel engines, measure
emissions when operating with each
type of fuel for which you intend to
certify the engine. In the case of flexiblefuel engines, measure emissions when
operating with the fuel mixture that best
represents in-use operation or is most
likely to have the highest NOX
emissions (or NOX+NMHC emissions for
engines subject to NOX+NMHC
standards), though you may ask us
instead to perform tests with both fuels
separately if you can show that
intermediate mixtures are not likely to
occur in use.
*
*
*
*
*
(c) * * *
(4) Before we test one of your engines,
we may calibrate it within normal
production tolerances for anything we
do not consider an adjustable parameter.
For example, this would apply for an
engine parameter that is subject to
production variability because it is
adjustable during production, but is not
considered an adjustable parameter (as
defined in § 1039.801) because it is
permanently sealed. For parameters that
relate to a level of performance that is
itself subject to a specified range (such
as maximum power output), we will
generally perform any calibration under
this paragraph (c)(4) in a way that keeps
performance within the specified range.
(d) * * *
(1) The engine family from the
previous model year differs from the
current engine family only with respect
to model year, items identified in
§ 1039.225(a), or other characteristics
unrelated to emissions. We may waive
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this criterion for differences we
determine not to be relevant.
*
*
*
*
*
■ 135. Section 1039.240 is amended by
revising paragraphs (c) and (d) and
removing paragraph (e).
The revisions read as follows:
§ 1039.240 How do I demonstrate that my
engine family complies with exhaust
emission standards?
*
*
*
*
*
(c) To compare emission levels from
the emission-data engine with the
applicable emission standards, apply
deterioration factors to the measured
emission levels for each pollutant.
Section 1039.245 specifies how to test
your engine to develop deterioration
factors that represent the deterioration
expected in emissions over your
engines’ full useful life. Your
deterioration factors must take into
account any available data from in-use
testing with similar engines. Smallvolume engine manufacturers may use
assigned deterioration factors that we
establish. Apply deterioration factors as
follows:
(1) Additive deterioration factor for
exhaust emissions. Except as specified
in paragraph (c)(2) of this section, use
an additive deterioration factor for
exhaust emissions. An additive
deterioration factor is the difference
between exhaust emissions at the end of
the useful life and exhaust emissions at
the low-hour test point. In these cases,
adjust the official emission results for
each tested engine at the selected test
point by adding the factor to the
measured emissions. If the factor is less
than zero, use zero. Additive
deterioration factors must be specified
to one more decimal place than the
applicable standard.
(2) Multiplicative deterioration factor
for exhaust emissions. Use a
multiplicative deterioration factor if
good engineering judgment calls for the
deterioration factor for a pollutant to be
the ratio of exhaust emissions at the end
of the useful life to exhaust emissions at
the low-hour test point. For example, if
you use aftertreatment technology that
controls emissions of a pollutant
proportionally to engine-out emissions,
it is often appropriate to use a
multiplicative deterioration factor.
Adjust the official emission results for
each tested engine at the selected test
point by multiplying the measured
emissions by the deterioration factor. If
the factor is less than one, use one. A
multiplicative deterioration factor may
not be appropriate in cases where
testing variability is significantly greater
than engine-to-engine variability.
Multiplicative deterioration factors must
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be specified to one more significant
figure than the applicable standard.
(3) Sawtooth deterioration patterns.
The deterioration factors described in
paragraphs (c)(1) and (2) of this section
assume that the highest useful life
emissions occur either at the end of
useful life or at the low-hour test point.
The provisions of this paragraph (c)(3)
apply where good engineering judgment
indicates that the highest emissions over
the useful life will occur between these
two points. For example, emissions may
increase with service accumulation
until a certain maintenance step is
performed, then return to the low-hour
emission levels and begin increasing
again. Base deterioration factors for
engines with such emission patterns on
the difference between (or ratio of) the
point of the sawtooth at which the
highest emissions occur and the lowhour test point. Note that this applies
for maintenance-related deterioration
only where we allow such critical
emission-related maintenance.
(4) Deterioration factor for smoke.
Deterioration factors for smoke are
always additive, as described in
paragraph (c)(1) of this section.
(5) Deterioration factor for crankcase
emissions. If your engine vents
crankcase emissions to the exhaust or to
the atmosphere, you must account for
crankcase emission deterioration, using
good engineering judgment. You may
use separate deterioration factors for
crankcase emissions of each pollutant
(either multiplicative or additive) or
include the effects in combined
deterioration factors that include
exhaust and crankcase emissions
together for each pollutant.
(6) Dual-fuel and flexible-fuel engines.
In the case of dual-fuel and flexible-fuel
engines, apply deterioration factors
separately for each fuel type. You may
accumulate service hours on a single
emission-data engine using the type of
fuel or the fuel mixture expected to have
the highest combustion and exhaust
temperatures; you may ask us to
approve a different fuel mixture if you
demonstrate that a different criterion is
more appropriate.
(d) Determine the official emission
result for each pollutant to at least one
more decimal place than the applicable
standard. Apply the deterioration factor
to the official emission result, as
described in paragraph (c) of this
section, then round the adjusted figure
to the same number of decimal places as
the emission standard. Compare the
rounded emission levels to the emission
standard for each emission-data engine.
In the case of NOX+NMHC standards,
apply the deterioration factor to each
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pollutant and then add the results
before rounding.
*
*
*
*
*
■ 136. Section 1039.250 is amended by
revising paragraphs (b)(3)(iv) and (c) to
read as follows:
§ 1039.250 What records must I keep and
what reports must I send to EPA?
*
*
*
*
*
(b) * * *
(3) * * *
(iv) All your emission tests, including
the date and purpose of each test and
documentation of test parameters as
specified in part 40 CFR part 1065.
*
*
*
*
*
(c) Keep required data from emission
tests and all other information specified
in this section for eight years after we
issue your certificate. If you use the
same emission data or other information
for a later model year, the eight-year
period restarts with each year that you
continue to rely on the information.
*
*
*
*
*
■ 137. Section 1039.255 is amended by
revising paragraphs (c)(2), (c)(4), (d),
and (e) to read as follows:
§ 1039.255 What decisions may EPA make
regarding my certificate of conformity?
*
*
*
*
*
(c) * * *
(2) Submit false or incomplete
information (paragraph (e) of this
section applies if this is fraudulent).
This includes doing anything after
submission of your application to
render any of the submitted information
false or incomplete.
*
*
*
*
*
(4) Deny us from completing
authorized activities (see 40 CFR
1068.20). This includes a failure to
provide reasonable assistance.
*
*
*
*
*
(d) We may void the certificate of
conformity for an engine family if you
fail to keep records, send reports, or give
us information as required under this
part or the Act. Note that these are also
violations of 40 CFR 1068.101(a)(2).
(e) We may void your certificate if we
find that you intentionally submitted
false or incomplete information. This
includes rendering submitted
information false or incomplete after
submission.
*
*
*
*
*
Subpart F—Test Procedures
138. Section 1039.501 is amended by
revising paragraphs (e), (f), and (g) and
adding paragraph (h) to read as follows:
■
§ 1039.501
test?
How do I run a valid emission
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40685
(e) The following provisions apply for
engines using aftertreatment technology
with infrequent regeneration events that
may occur during testing:
(1) Adjust measured emissions to
account for aftertreatment technology
with infrequent regeneration as
described in § 1039.525.
(2) If your engine family includes
engines with one or more emergency
AECDs approved under § 1039.115(g)(4)
or (5), do not consider additional
regenerations resulting from those
AECDs when developing adjustments to
measured values under this paragraph
(e).
(3) Invalidate a smoke test if active
regeneration starts to occur during the
test.
(f) You may disable any AECDs that
have been approved solely for
emergency equipment applications
under § 1039.115(g)(4). Note that the
emission standards do not apply when
any of these AECDs are active.
(g) You may use special or alternate
procedures to the extent we allow them
under 40 CFR 1065.10.
(h) This subpart is addressed to you
as a manufacturer, but it applies equally
to anyone who does testing for you, and
to us when we perform testing to
determine if your engines meet emission
standards.
■ 139. Section 1039.505 is amended by
revising paragraph (b)(2) to read as
follows:
§ 1039.505 How do I test engines using
steady-state duty cycles, including rampedmodal testing?
*
*
*
*
*
(b) * * *
(2) Use the 6-mode duty cycle or the
corresponding ramped-modal cycle
described in paragraph (b) of Appendix
II of this part for variable-speed engines
below 19 kW. You may instead use the
8-mode duty cycle or the corresponding
ramped-modal cycle described in
paragraph (c) of Appendix II of this part
if some engines from your engine family
will be used in applications that do not
involve governing to maintain engine
operation around rated speed.
*
*
*
*
*
■ 140. Section 1039.515 is amended by
revising paragraph (a) to read as follows:
§ 1039.515 What are the test procedures
related to not-to-exceed standards?
(a) General provisions. The provisions
in 40 CFR 86.1370 apply for
determining whether an engine meets
the not-to-exceed emission standards in
§ 1039.101(e), except as noted in this
section. Interpret references to vehicles
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§ 1039.601
apply?
and vehicle operation to mean
equipment and equipment operation.
*
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*
■ 141. Section 1039.525 is revised to
read as follows:
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§ 1039.525 How do I adjust emission levels
to account for infrequently regenerating
aftertreatment devices?
For engines using aftertreatment
technology with infrequent regeneration
events that may occur during testing,
take one of the following approaches to
account for the emission impact of
regeneration:
(a) You may use the calculation
methodology described in 40 CFR
1065.680 to adjust measured emission
results. Do this by developing an
upward adjustment factor and a
downward adjustment factor for each
pollutant based on measured emission
data and observed regeneration
frequency as follows:
(1) Adjustment factors should
generally apply to an entire engine
family, but you may develop separate
adjustment factors for different
configurations within an engine family.
Use the adjustment factors from this
section for all testing for the engine
family.
(2) You may use carryover or carryacross data to establish adjustment
factors for an engine family as described
in § 1039.235, consistent with good
engineering judgment.
(3) For engines that are required to
certify to both transient and steady-state
duty cycles, calculate a separate
adjustment factor for steady-state and
transient operation.
(b) You may ask us to approve an
alternate methodology to account for
regeneration events. We will generally
limit approval to cases where your
engines use aftertreatment technology
with extremely infrequent regeneration
and you are unable to apply the
provisions of this section.
(c) You may choose to make no
adjustments to measured emission
results if you determine that
regeneration does not significantly affect
emission levels for an engine family (or
configuration) or if it is not practical to
identify when regeneration occurs. If
you choose not to make adjustments
under paragraph (a) or (b) of this
section, your engines must meet
emission standards for all testing,
without regard to regeneration.
Subpart G—Special Compliance
Provisions
142. Section 1039.601 is revised to
read as follows:
■
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What compliance provisions
(a) Engine and equipment
manufacturers, as well as owners,
operators, and rebuilders of engines
subject to the requirements of this part,
and all other persons, must observe the
provisions of this part, the requirements
and prohibitions in 40 CFR part 1068,
and the provisions of the Act.
(b) Subpart C of this part describes
how to test and certify dual-fuel and
flexible-fuel engines. Some multi-fuel
engines may not fit either of those
defined terms. For such engines, we will
determine whether it is most
appropriate to treat them as single-fuel
engines, dual-fuel engines, or flexiblefuel engines based on the range of
possible and expected fuel mixtures. For
example, an engine might burn natural
gas but initiate combustion with a pilot
injection of diesel fuel. If the engine is
designed to operate with a single fueling
algorithm (i.e., fueling rates are fixed at
a given engine speed and load
condition), we would generally treat it
as a single-fuel engine, In this context,
the combination of diesel fuel and
natural gas would be its own fuel type.
If the engine is designed to also operate
on diesel fuel alone, we would generally
treat it as a dual-fueled engine. If the
engine is designed to operate on varying
mixtures of the two fuels, we would
generally treat it as a flexible-fueled
engine. To the extent that requirements
vary for the different fuels or fuel
mixtures, we may apply the more
stringent requirements.
■ 143. Section 1039.605 is amended by
revising paragraphs (b), (d)(5), and (d)(8)
to read as follows:
§ 1039.605 What provisions apply to
engines certified under the motor-vehicle
program?
*
*
*
*
*
(b) Equipment-manufacturer
provisions. If you are not an engine
manufacturer, you may install motorvehicle engines certified for the
appropriate model year under 40 CFR
part 86 in nonroad equipment as long as
you meet all the requirements and
conditions specified in paragraph (d) of
this section. You must also add the fuelinlet label we specify in § 1039.135(e).
If you modify the motor-vehicle engine
in any of the ways described in
paragraph (d)(2) of this section, we will
consider you a manufacturer of a new
nonroad engine. Such engine
modifications prevent you from using
the provisions of this section.
*
*
*
*
*
(d) * * *
(5) You must add a permanent
supplemental label to the engine in a
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position where it will remain clearly
visible after installation in the
equipment. In the supplemental label,
do the following:
(i) Include the heading: ‘‘NONROAD
ENGINE EMISSION CONTROL
INFORMATION’’.
(ii) Include your full corporate name
and trademark. You may identify
another company and use its trademark
instead of yours if you comply with the
branding provisions of 40 CFR 1068.45.
(iii) State: ‘‘THIS ENGINE WAS
ADAPTED FOR NONROAD USE
WITHOUT AFFECTING ITS EMISSION
CONTROLS. THE EMISSION–
CONTROL SYSTEM DEPENDS ON THE
USE OF FUEL MEETING
SPECIFICATIONS THAT APPLY FOR
MOTOR–VEHICLE APPLICATIONS.
OPERATING THE ENGINE ON OTHER
FUELS MAY BE A VIOLATION OF
FEDERAL LAW.’’
(iv) State the date you finished
modifying the engine (month and year),
if applicable.
*
*
*
*
*
(8) Send the Designated Compliance
Officer written notification describing
your plans before using the provisions
of this section. In addition, by February
28 of each calendar year (or less often
if we tell you), send the Designated
Compliance Officer a signed letter with
all the following information:
(i) Identify your full corporate name,
address, and telephone number.
(ii) List the engine or equipment
models for which you used this
exemption in the previous year and
describe your basis for meeting the sales
restrictions of paragraph (d)(3) of this
section.
(iii) State: ‘‘We prepared each listed
[engine or equipment] model for
nonroad application without making
any changes that could increase its
certified emission levels, as described in
40 CFR 1039.605.’’
*
*
*
*
*
144. Section 1039.610 is amended by
revising paragraphs (d)(5)(ii) and (d)(7)
to read as follows:
§ 1039.610 What provisions apply to
vehicles certified under the motor-vehicle
program?
*
*
*
*
*
(d) * * *
(5) * * *
(ii) Include your full corporate name
and trademark. You may identify
another company and use its trademark
instead of yours if you comply with the
branding provisions of 40 CFR 1068.45.
*
*
*
*
*
(7) Send the Designated Compliance
Officer written notification describing
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your plans before using the provisions
of this section. In addition, by February
28 of each calendar year (or less often
if we tell you), send the Designated
Compliance Officer a signed letter with
all the following information:
(i) Identify your full corporate name,
address, and telephone number.
(ii) List the equipment models for
which you used this exemption in the
previous year and describe your basis
for meeting the sales restrictions of
paragraph (d)(3) of this section.
(iii) State: ‘‘We prepared each listed
engine or equipment model for nonroad
application without making any changes
that could increase its certified emission
levels, as described in 40 CFR
1039.610.’’
*
*
*
*
*
Remove § 1039.640—[Removed]
■ 145. Section 1039.640 is removed.
Subpart H—Averaging, Banking, and
Trading for Certification
146. Section 1039.701 is amended by
adding paragraph (h) to read as follows:
■
§ 1039.701
General provisions.
*
*
*
*
(h) You may use either of the
following approaches to retire or forego
emission credits:
(1) You may retire emission credits
generated from any number of your
engines. This may be considered
donating emission credits to the
environment. Identify any such credits
in the reports described in § 1039.730.
Engines must comply with the
applicable FELs even if you donate or
sell the corresponding emission credits
under this paragraph (h). Those credits
may no longer be used by anyone to
demonstrate compliance with any EPA
emission standards.
(2) You may certify a family using an
FEL below the emission standard as
described in this part and choose not to
generate emission credits for that
family. If you do this, you do not need
to calculate emission credits for those
families and you do not need to submit
or keep the associated records described
in this subpart for that family.
■ 147. Section 1039.705 is amended by
revising paragraphs (b), (c) introductory
text, and (c)(1) to read as follows:
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§ 1039.705 How do I generate and
calculate emission credits?
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*
*
*
*
(b) For each participating family,
calculate positive or negative emission
credits relative to the otherwise
applicable emission standard. Calculate
positive emission credits for a family
that has an FEL below the standard.
Calculate negative emission credits for a
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family that has an FEL above the
standard. Sum your positive and
negative credits for the model year
before rounding. Round the sum of
emission credits to the nearest kilogram
(kg), using consistent units throughout
the following equation:
Emission credits (kg) = (Std¥FEL) C
(Volume) C (AvgPR) C (UL) C
(10¥3)
Where:
Std = the emission standard, in grams per
kilowatt-hour, that applies under subpart
B of this part for engines not
participating in the ABT program of this
subpart (the ‘‘otherwise applicable
standard’’).
FEL = the family emission limit for the
engine family, in grams per kilowatthour.
Volume = the number of engines eligible to
participate in the averaging, banking,
and trading program within the given
engine family during the model year, as
described in paragraph (c) of this section.
AvgPR = the average of maximum engine
power values of all the engine
configurations within an engine family,
calculated on a sales-weighted basis, in
kilowatts.
UL = the useful life for the given engine
family, in hours.
(c) As described in § 1039.730,
compliance with the requirements of
this subpart is determined at the end of
the model year based on actual U.S.directed production volumes. Do not
include any of the following engines to
calculate emission credits:
(1) Engines with a permanent
exemption under subpart G of this part
or under 40 CFR part 1068.
*
*
*
*
*
■ 148. Section 1039.710 is amended by
revising paragraph (c) to read as follows:
§ 1039.710
credits?
How do I average emission
*
*
*
*
(c) If you certify an engine family to
an FEL that exceeds the otherwise
applicable standard, you must obtain
enough emission credits to offset the
engine family’s deficit by the due date
for the final report required in
§ 1039.730. The emission credits used to
address the deficit may come from your
other engine families that generate
emission credits in the same model
year, from emission credits you have
banked from previous model years, or
from emission credits generated in the
same or previous model years that you
obtained through trading.
■ 149. Section 1039.725 is amended by
revising paragraph (b)(2) to read as
follows:
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§ 1039.725 What must I include in my
application for certification?
*
*
*
*
*
(b) * * *
(2) Detailed calculations of projected
emission credits (positive or negative)
based on projected production volumes.
We may require you to include similar
calculations from your other engine
families to demonstrate that you will be
able to avoid negative credit balances
for the model year. If you project
negative emission credits for a family,
state the source of positive emission
credits you expect to use to offset the
negative emission credits.
■ 150. Section 1039.730 is amended by
revising paragraphs (b)(1), (b)(4), and
(c)(2) to read as follows:
§ 1039.730
to EPA?
Fmt 4701
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What ABT reports must I send
*
*
*
*
*
(b) * * *
(1) Engine-family designation and
averaging set.
*
*
*
*
*
(4) The projected and actual U.S.directed production volumes for the
model year. If you changed an FEL
during the model year, identify the
actual U.S.-directed production volume
associated with each FEL.
*
*
*
*
*
(c) * * *
(2) State whether you will retain any
emission credits for banking. If you
choose to retire emission credits that
would otherwise be eligible for banking,
identify the engine families that
generated the emission credits,
including the number of emission
credits from each family.
*
*
*
*
*
■ 151. Section 1039.735 is amended by
revising paragraphs (a) and (b) to read
as follows:
§ 1039.735
*
40687
What records must I keep?
(a) You must organize and maintain
your records as described in this
section.
(b) Keep the records required by this
section for at least eight years after the
due date for the end-of-year report. You
may not use emission credits for any
engines if you do not keep all the
records required under this section. You
must therefore keep these records to
continue to bank valid credits.
*
*
*
*
*
■ 152. Section 1039.740 is amended by
revising paragraph (a) to read as follows:
§ 1039.740 What restrictions apply for
using emission credits?
*
*
*
*
*
(a) Averaging sets. Emission credits
may be exchanged only within an
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averaging set. For emission credits
generated by Tier 4 engines, there are
two averaging sets—one for engines at
or below 560 kW and another for
engines above 560 kW.
*
*
*
*
*
Subpart I—Definitions and Other
Reference Information
153. Section 1039.801 is amended as
follows:
■ a. By revising the definitions of
‘‘Aircraft’’ and ‘‘Designated Compliance
Officer’’.
■ b. By removing the definition for
‘‘Designated Enforcement Officer’’.
■ c. By adding definitions for ‘‘Dualfuel’’ and ‘‘Flexible-fuel’’.
■ d. By revising paragraph (1)(i) of the
definition of ‘‘Model year’’ and the
definition of ‘‘Placed into service’’.
■ e. By removing the definition for
‘‘Point of first retail sale’’.
The revisions and additions read as
follows:
■
§ 1039.801
part?
What definitions apply to this
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*
*
*
*
Aircraft means any vehicle capable of
sustained air travel more than 100 feet
above the ground.
*
*
*
*
*
Designated Compliance Officer means
the Director, Diesel Engine Compliance
Center, U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency, 2000 Traverwood Drive, Ann
Arbor, MI 48105; complianceinfo@
epa.gov; epa.gov/otaq/verify.
*
*
*
*
*
Dual-fuel means relating to an engine
designed for operation on two different
fuels but not on a continuous mixture of
those fuels (see § 1039.601(b)). For
purposes of this part, such an engine
remains a dual-fuel engine even if it is
designed for operation on three or more
different fuels.
*
*
*
*
*
Flexible-fuel means relating to an
engine designed for operation on any
mixture of two or more different fuels
(see § 1039.601(b)).
*
*
*
*
*
Model year means one of the
following things:
(1) * * *
(i) Calendar year of production.
*
*
*
*
*
Placed into service means put into
initial use for its intended purpose.
Engines and equipment do not qualify
as being ‘‘placed into service’’ based on
incidental use by a manufacturer or
dealer.
*
*
*
*
*
■ 154. Section 1039.815 is revised to
read as follows:
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§ 1039.815 What provisions apply to
confidential information?
The provisions of 40 CFR 1068.10
apply for information you consider
confidential.
■ 155. Section 1039.825 is revised to
read as follows:
§ 1039.825 What reporting and
recordkeeping requirements apply under
this part?
(a) This part includes various
requirements to submit and record data
or other information. Unless we specify
otherwise, store required records in any
format and on any media and keep them
readily available for eight years after
you send an associated application for
certification, or eight years after you
generate the data if they do not support
an application for certification. You are
expected to keep your own copy of
required records rather than relying on
someone else to keep records on your
behalf. We may review these records at
any time. You must promptly send us
organized, written records in English if
we ask for them. We may require you to
submit written records in an electronic
format.
(b) The regulations in § 1039.255, 40
CFR 1068.25, and 40 CFR 1068.101
describe your obligation to report
truthful and complete information. This
includes information not related to
certification. Failing to properly report
information and keep the records we
specify violates 40 CFR 1068.101(a)(2),
which may involve civil or criminal
penalties.
(c) Send all reports and requests for
approval to the Designated Compliance
Officer (see § 1039.801).
(d) Any written information we
require you to send to or receive from
another company is deemed to be a
required record under this section. Such
records are also deemed to be
submissions to EPA. We may require
you to send us these records whether or
not you are a certificate holder.
(e) Under the Paperwork Reduction
Act (44 U.S.C. 3501 et seq.), the Office
of Management and Budget approves
the reporting and recordkeeping
specified in the applicable regulations.
The following items illustrate the kind
of reporting and recordkeeping we
require for engines and equipment
regulated under this part:
(1) We specify the following
requirements related to engine
certification in this part 1039:
(i) In § 1039.20 we require engine
manufacturers to label stationary
engines that do not meet the standards
in this part.
(ii) In § 1039.135 we require engine
manufacturers to keep certain records
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related to duplicate labels sent to
equipment manufacturers.
(iii) [Reserved]
(iv) In subpart C of this part we
identify a wide range of information
required to certify engines.
(v) [Reserved]
(vi) In subpart G of this part we
identify several reporting and
recordkeeping items for making
demonstrations and getting approval
related to various special compliance
provisions. For example, equipment
manufacturers must submit reports and
keep records related to the flexibility
provisions in § 1039.625.
(vii) In § 1039.725, 1039.730, and
1039.735 we specify certain records
related to averaging, banking, and
trading.
(2) We specify the following
requirements related to testing in 40
CFR part 1065:
(i) In 40 CFR 1065.2 we give an
overview of principles for reporting
information.
(ii) In 40 CFR 1065.10 and 1065.12 we
specify information needs for
establishing various changes to
published test procedures.
(iii) In 40 CFR 1065.25 we establish
basic guidelines for storing test
information.
(iv) In 40 CFR 1065.695 we identify
the specific information and data items
to record when measuring emissions.
(3) We specify the following
requirements related to the general
compliance provisions in 40 CFR part
1068:
(i) In 40 CFR 1068.5 we establish a
process for evaluating good engineering
judgment related to testing and
certification.
(ii) In 40 CFR 1068.25 we describe
general provisions related to sending
and keeping information.
(iii) In 40 CFR 1068.27 we require
manufacturers to make engines available
for our testing or inspection if we make
such a request.
(iv) In 40 CFR 1068.105 we require
equipment manufacturers to keep
certain records related to duplicate
labels from engine manufacturers.
(v) In 40 CFR 1068.120 we specify
recordkeeping related to rebuilding
engines.
(vi) In 40 CFR part 1068, subpart C,
we identify several reporting and
recordkeeping items for making
demonstrations and getting approval
related to various exemptions.
(vii) In 40 CFR part 1068, subpart D,
we identify several reporting and
recordkeeping items for making
demonstrations and getting approval
related to importing engines.
(viii) In 40 CFR 1068.450 and
1068.455 we specify certain records
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related to testing production-line
engines in a selective enforcement
audit.
(ix) In 40 CFR 1068.501 we specify
certain records related to investigating
and reporting emission-related defects.
(x) In 40 CFR 1068.525 and 1068.530
we specify certain records related to
recalling nonconforming engines.
40689
PART 1042—CONTROL OF EMISSIONS
FROM NEW AND IN–USE MARINE
COMPRESSION–IGNITION ENGINES
AND VESSELS
Subpart A—Overview and Applicability
156. The authority citation for part
1042 continues to read as follows:
§ 1042.1
■
Authority: 42 U.S.C. 7401–7671q.
157. Section 1042.1 is amended by
revising paragraphs (a) and (c)
introductory text to read as follows:
■
Applicability.
*
*
*
*
*
(a) The emission standards of this part
1042 for freshly manufactured engines
apply for new marine engines starting
with the model years noted in the
following table:
TABLE 1 TO § 1042.1—PART 1042 APPLICABILITY BY MODEL YEAR
Engine category
Maximum engine power a
Displacement (L/cyl) or application
Category 1 ...............................................
kW <75 ....................................................
75 ≤ kW ≤ 3700 .......................................
disp.< 0.9 .................................................
disp.< 0.9 .................................................
0.9 ≤ disp. < 1.2 ......................................
1.2 ≤ disp. < 2.5 ......................................
2.5 ≤ disp. < 3.5 ......................................
3.5 ≤ disp. < 7.0 ......................................
All .............................................................
7.0 ≤ disp. < 15.0 ....................................
7.0 ≤ disp. < 15.0 ....................................
15 ≤ disp. < 30 ........................................
disp. ≥ 30 .................................................
Category 2 ...............................................
Category 3 ...............................................
kW > 3700 ...............................................
kW ≤ 3700 ...............................................
kW > 3700 ...............................................
All .............................................................
All .............................................................
Model year
b 2009
2012
2013
2014
2013
2012
2014
2013
2014
2014
2011
a See
§ 1042.140, which describes how to determine maximum engine power.
Table 1 of § 1042.101 for the first model year in which this part 1042 applies for engines with maximum engine power below 75 kW and
displacement at or above 0.9 L/cyl.
b See
*
*
*
*
(c) Freshly manufactured engines
with maximum engine power at or
above 37 kW and originally
manufactured and certified before the
model years identified in Table 1 to this
section are subject to emission
standards and requirements of 40 CFR
part 94. The provisions of this part 1042
do not apply for such engines certified
under 40 CFR part 94, except as follows
beginning June 29, 2010:
*
*
*
*
*
■ 158. Section 1042.2 is revised to read
as follows:
defined in § 1042.901, especially for
issues related to certification (including
production-line testing, reporting, etc.).
Note that for engines that become new
after being placed into service (such as
engines converted from highway or
stationary use, or engines installed on
vessels that are reflagged to become U.S.
vessels), the requirements that normally
apply for manufacturers of freshly
manufactured engines apply to the
importer or any other entity we allow to
obtain a certificate of conformity.
■ 159. Section 1042.30 is revised to read
as follows:
§ 1042.2 Who is responsible for
compliance?
§ 1042.30
ebenthall on DSK3VPTVN1PROD with MISCELLANEOUS
*
The regulations in this part 1042
contain provisions that affect both
engine manufacturers and others.
However, the requirements of this part,
other than those of subpart I of this part,
are generally addressed to the engine
manufacturer for freshly manufactured
marine engines or other certificate
holders. The term ‘‘you’’ generally
means the engine manufacturer, as
Submission of information.
Unless we specify otherwise, send all
reports and requests for approval to the
Designated Compliance Officer (see
§ 1042.901). See § 1042.925 for
additional reporting and recordkeeping
provisions.
Subpart B—Emission Standards and
Related Requirements
160. Section 1042.101 is amended by
revising the section heading and
■
paragraphs (a), (b), and (c) to read as
follows:
§ 1042.101 Exhaust emission standards
for Category 1 and Category 2 engines.
(a) Duty-cycle standards. Exhaust
emissions from your engines may not
exceed emission standards, as follows:
(1) Measure emissions using the test
procedures described in subpart F of
this part.
(2) The following CO emission
standards in this paragraph (a)(2) apply
starting with the applicable model year
identified in § 1042.1:
(i) 8.0 g/kW-hr for engines below 8
kW.
(ii) 6.6 g/kW-hr for engines at or above
8 kW and below 19 kW.
(iii) 5.5 g/kW-hr for engines at or
above 19 kW and below 37 kW.
(iv) 5.0 g/kW-hr for engines at or
above 37 kW.
(3) Except as described in paragraphs
(a)(4) and (5) of this section, the Tier 3
standards for PM and NOX+HC
emissions are described in the following
tables:
TABLE 1 TO § 1042.101—TIER 3 STANDARDS FOR CATEGORY 1 ENGINES BELOW 3700 kW a
Power density and application
Displacement
(L/cyl)
Maximum engine power
all ...........................................
disp. < 0.9 .............................
kW < 19 ................................
19 > kW < 75 ........................
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Model year
2009+
2009–2013
2014+
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PM
(g/kW-hr)
0.40
0.30
c 0.30
NOX+HC
(g/kW-hr) b
7.5
7.5
c 4.7
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TABLE 1 TO § 1042.101—TIER 3 STANDARDS FOR CATEGORY 1 ENGINES BELOW 3700 kW a—Continued
Power density and application
Displacement
(L/cyl)
Maximum engine power
Commercial engines with kW/
L ≤35.
disp. < 0.9 .............................
0.9 ≤ disp. < 1.2 ...................
1.2 ≤ disp. < 2.5 ...................
kW ≥ 75 ................................
all ..........................................
kW < 600 ..............................
...............................................
kW ≥ 600.
kW < 600 ..............................
2.5 > disp. < 3.5 ...................
Commercial engines with kW/
L >35, and all recreational
engines ≥75 kW.
disp. < 0.9 .............................
0.9 ≤ disp. < 1.2 ...................
1.2 ≤ disp. < 2.5
2.5 > disp. < 3.5
3.5 > disp. < 7.0
kW ≥ 600 ..............................
kW ≥ 75 ................................
all ..........................................
Model year
2012+
2013+
2014–2017
2018+
2014+
2013–2017
2018+
2013+
2012+
2013+
2014+
2013+
2012+
PM
(g/kW-hr)
0.14
0.12
0.11
0.10
0.11
0.11
0.10
0.11
0.15
0.14
0.12
0.12
0.11
NOX+HC
(g/kW-hr) b
5.4
5.4
5.6
5.6
5.6
5.6
5.6
5.6
5.8
5.8
5.8
5.8
5.8
a No Tier 3 standards apply for commercial Category 1 engines at or above 3700 kW. See § 1042.1(c) and paragraph (a)(7) of this section for
the standards that apply for these engines.
b The applicable NO +HC standards specified for Tier 2 engines in Appendix I of this part continue to apply instead of the values noted in the
X
table for commercial engines at or above 2000 kW. FELs for these engines may not be higher than the Tier 1 NOX standard specified in Appendix I of this part.
c See paragraph (a)(4) of this section for alternative PM and NO +HC standards for engines at or above 19 kW and below 75 kW with disX
placement below 0.9 L/cyl.
TABLE 2 TO § 1042.101—TIER 3 STANDARDS FOR CATEGORY 2 ENGINES BELOW 3700 kW a
Displacement
(L/cyl)
Maximum engine power
7.0 ≤ disp. ≤ 15.0 ............................................
kW < 2000 ......................................................
2000 ≤ kW ≤ 3700 .........................................
kW < 2000 ......................................................
kW < 2000 ......................................................
kW < 2000 ......................................................
15.0 ≤ disp. < 20.0 c ........................................
20.0 ≤ disp. < 25.0 c ........................................
25.0 ≤ disp. < 30.0 c ........................................
Model year
2013+
2013+
2014+
2014+
2014+
PM
(g/kW-hr)
0.14
0.14
0.34
0.27
0.27
NOX+HC
(g/kW-hr)
6.2
b 7.8
7.0
9.8
11.0
a The Tier 3 standards in this table do not apply for Category 2 engines at or above 2000 kW with per-cylinder displacement at or above 15.0
liters, or for any Category 2 engines at or above 3700 kW. See § 1042.1(c) and paragraphs (a)(6) through (8) of this section for the standards
that apply for these engines.
b For engines subject to the 7.8 g/kW-hr NO +HC standard, FELs may not be higher than the Tier 1 NO standards specified in Appendix I of
X
X
this part.
c There are no Tier 3 standards for Category 2 engines with per-cylinder displacement at or above 15 and 20 liters with maximum engine
power at or above 2000 kW. See paragraphs (a)(6) and (7) of this section for the Tier 4 standards that apply for these engines starting with the
2014 model year.
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(4) For Tier 3 engines at or above 19
kW and below 75 kW with displacement
below 0.9 L/cyl, you may alternatively
certify some or all of your engine
families to a PM emission standard of
0.20 g/kW-hr and a NOX+HC emission
standard of 5.8 g/kW-hr for 2014 and
later model years.
(5) Starting with the 2014 model year,
recreational marine engines at or above
3700 kW (with any displacement) must
be certified under this part 1042 to the
Tier 3 standards specified in this section
for 3.5 to 7.0 L/cyl recreational marine
engines.
(6) Interim Tier 4 PM standards apply
for 2014 and 2015 model year engines
between 2000 and 3700 kW as specified
in this paragraph (a)(6). These engines
are considered to be Tier 4 engines.
(i) For Category 1 engines, the Tier 3
PM standards from Table 1 to this
section continue to apply. PM FELs for
these engines may not be higher than
the applicable Tier 2 PM standards
specified in Appendix I of this part.
(ii) For Category 2 engines with percylinder displacement below 15.0 liters,
the Tier 3 PM standards from Table 2 to
this section continue to apply. PM FELs
for these engines may not be higher than
0.27 g/kW-hr.
(iii) For Category 2 engines with percylinder displacement at or above 15.0
liters, the PM standard is 0.34 g/kW-hr
for engines at or above 2000 kW and
below 3300 kW, and 0.27 g/kW-hr for
engines at or above 3300 kW and below
3700 kW. PM FELs for these engines
may not be higher than 0.50 g/kW-hr.
(7) Except as described in paragraph
(a)(8) of this section, the Tier 4
standards for PM, NOX, and HC
emissions are described in the following
table:
TABLE 3 TO § 1042.101—TIER 4 STANDARDS FOR CATEGORY 2 AND COMMERCIAL CATEGORY 1 ENGINES AT OR ABOVE
600 kW
Maximum engine power
Displacement
(L/cyl)
Model year
600 ≤kW <1400 .....................
1400 ≤kW <2000 ...................
2000 ≤kW ≤3700 a .................
kW >3700 ..............................
all ..........................................
all ..........................................
all ..........................................
disp. <15.0 ............................
15.0 ≤ disp. <30.0 ................
2017+ ....................................
2016+ ....................................
2014+ ....................................
2014–2015 ............................
2014–2015 ............................
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(g/kW-hr)
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0.04
0.04
0.04
0.12
0.25
13JYP2
NOX
(g/kW-hr)
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.8
HC
(g/kW-hr)
0.19
0.19
0.19
0.19
0.19
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TABLE 3 TO § 1042.101—TIER 4 STANDARDS FOR CATEGORY 2 AND COMMERCIAL CATEGORY 1 ENGINES AT OR ABOVE
600 kW—Continued
Displacement
(L/cyl)
Model year
all ..........................................
Maximum engine power
PM
(g/kW-hr)
2016+ ....................................
NOX
(g/kW-hr)
0.06
1.8
HC
(g/kW-hr)
0.19
a See
paragraph (a)(6) of this section for interim PM standards that apply for model years 2014 and 2015 for engines between 2000 and 3700
kW. The Tier 4 NOX FEL cap for engines at or above 2000 kW and below 3700 kW is 7.0 g/kW-hr. Starting in the 2016 model year, the Tier 4
PM FEL cap for engines at or above 2000 kW and below 3700 kW is 0.34 g/kW-hr.
(8) The following optional provisions
apply for complying with the Tier 3 and
Tier 4 standards specified in paragraphs
(a)(3) through (7) of this section:
(i) You may use NOX credits
accumulated through the ABT program
to certify Tier 4 engines to a NOX+HC
emission standard of 1.9 g/kW-hr
instead of the NOX and HC standards
that would otherwise apply by
certifying your family to a NOX+HC
FEL. Calculate the NOX credits needed
as specified in subpart H of this part
using the NOX+HC emission standard
and FEL in the calculation instead of the
otherwise applicable NOX standard and
FEL. You may not generate credits
relative to the alternate standard or
certify to the standard without using
credits.
(ii) For engines below 1000 kW, you
may delay complying with the Tier 4
standards in the 2017 model year for up
to nine months, but you must comply
no later than October 1, 2017.
(iii) For engines at or above 3700 kW,
you may delay complying with the Tier
4 standards in the 2016 model year for
up to twelve months, but you must
comply no later than December 31,
2016.
(iv) For Category 2 engines at or above
1400 kW, you may alternatively comply
with the Tier 3 and Tier 4 standards
specified in Table 4 of this section
instead of the NOX, HC, NOX+HC, and
PM standards specified in paragraphs
(a)(3) through (7) of this section. The CO
standards specified in paragraph (a)(2)
of this section apply without regard to
whether you choose this option. If you
choose this option, you must do so for
all engines at or above 1400 kW in the
same displacement category (that is, 7–
15, 15–20, 20–25, or 25–30 liters per
cylinder) in model years 2012 through
2015.
TABLE 4 TO § 1042.101—OPTIONAL TIER 3 AND TIER 4 STANDARDS FOR CATEGORY 2 ENGINES AT OR ABOVE 1400 kW
NOX
(g/kW-hr)
Tier 3 .....................................
kW >1400 .............................
2012–2014
0.14
1400 ≤kW ≤3700 ..................
kW >3700 .............................
2015
2015
0.04
0.06
1.8 .........................................
1.8 .........................................
HC
(g/kW-hr)
7.8 NOX+HC
Tier 4 .....................................
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Maximum engine power
(b) Averaging, banking, and trading.
You may generate or use emission
credits under the averaging, banking,
and trading (ABT) program as described
in subpart H of this part for
demonstrating compliance with NOX,
NOX+HC, and PM emission standards
for Category 1 and Category 2 engines.
You may also use NOX or NOX+HC
emission credits to comply with the
alternate NOX+HC standard in
paragraph (a)(8)(i) of this section.
Generating or using emission credits
requires that you specify a family
emission limit (FEL) for each pollutant
you include in the ABT program for
each engine family. These FELs serve as
the emission standards for the engine
family with respect to all required
testing instead of the standards
specified in paragraph (a) of this
section. The FELs determine the not-toexceed standards for your engine family,
as specified in paragraph (c) of this
section. Unless otherwise specified, the
following FEL caps apply:
(1) FELs for Tier 3 engines may not be
higher than the applicable Tier 2
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Model year
PM
(g/kW-hr)
Tier
standards specified in Appendix I of
this part.
(2) FELs for Tier 4 engines may not be
higher than the applicable Tier 3
standards specified in paragraph (a)(3)
of this section.
(3) The following FEL caps apply for
engines at or above 3700 kW that are not
subject to Tier 3 standards under
paragraph (a)(3) of this section:
(i) FELs may not be higher than the
applicable Tier 1 NOX standards
specified in Appendix I of this part
before the Tier 4 standards start to
apply.
(ii) FELs may not be higher than the
applicable Tier 2 NOX+THC standards
specified in Appendix I of this part after
the Tier 4 standards start to apply.
(c) Not-to-exceed standards. Except as
noted in § 1042.145(e), exhaust
emissions from all engines subject to the
requirements of this part may not
exceed the not-to-exceed (NTE)
standards as follows:
(1) Use the following equation to
determine the NTE standards:
(i) NTE standard for each pollutant =
STD × M.
Where:
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0.19
0.19
STD = The standard specified for that
pollutant in this section if you certify
without using ABT for that pollutant; or
the FEL for that pollutant if you certify
using ABT.
M = The NTE multiplier for that pollutant.
(ii) Round each NTE standard to the
same number of decimal places as the
emission standard.
(2) Determine the applicable NTE
zone and subzones as described in
§ 1042.515. Determine NTE multipliers
for specific zones and subzones and
pollutants as follows:
(i) For marine engines certified using
the duty cycle specified in
§ 1042.505(b)(1), except for variablespeed propulsion marine engines used
with controllable-pitch propellers or
with electrically coupled propellers,
apply the following NTE multipliers:
(A) Subzone 1: 1.2 for Tier 3 NOX+HC
standards.
(B) Subzone 1: 1.5 for Tier 4 standards
and Tier 3 p.m. and CO standards.
(C) Subzone 2: 1.5 for Tier 4 NOX and
HC standards and for Tier 3 NOX+HC
standards.
(D) Subzone 2: 1.9 for PM and CO
standards.
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(ii) For recreational marine engines
certified using the duty cycle specified
in § 1042.505(b)(2), except for variablespeed marine engines used with
controllable-pitch propellers or with
electrically coupled propellers, apply
the following NTE multipliers:
(A) Subzone 1: 1.2 for Tier 3 NOX+HC
standards.
(B) Subzone 1: 1.5 for Tier 3 p.m. and
CO standards.
(C) Subzones 2 and 3: 1.5 for Tier 3
NOX+HC standards.
(D) Subzones 2 and 3: 1.9 for PM and
CO standards.
(iii) For variable-speed marine
engines used with controllable-pitch
propellers or with electrically coupled
propellers that are certified using the
duty cycle specified in § 1042.505(b)(1),
(2), or (3), apply the following NTE
multipliers:
(A) Subzone 1: 1.2 for Tier 3 NOX+HC
standards.
(B) Subzone 1: 1.5 for Tier 4 standards
and Tier 3 p.m. and CO standards.
(C) Subzone 2: 1.5 for Tier 4 NOX and
HC standards and for Tier 3 NOX+HC
standards.
(D) Subzone 2: 1.9 for PM and CO
standards. However, there is no NTE
standard in Subzone 2b for PM
emissions if the engine family’s
applicable standard for PM is at or
above 0.07 g/kW-hr.
(iv) For constant-speed engines
certified using a duty cycle specified in
§ 1042.505(b)(3) or (4), apply the
following NTE multipliers:
(A) Subzone 1: 1.2 for Tier 3 NOX+HC
standards.
(B) Subzone 1: 1.5 for Tier 4 standards
and Tier 3 p.m. and CO standards.
(C) Subzone 2: 1.5 for Tier 4 NOX and
HC standards and for Tier 3 NOX+HC
standards.
(D) Subzone 2: 1.9 for PM and CO
standards. However, there is no NTE
standard for PM emissions if the engine
family’s applicable standard for PM is at
or above 0.07 g/kW-hr.
(v) For variable-speed auxiliary
marine engines certified using the duty
cycle specified in § 1042.505(b)(5)(ii) or
(iii):
(A) Subzone 1: 1.2 for Tier 3 NOX+HC
standards.
(B) Subzone 1: 1.5 for Tier 4 standards
and Tier 3 p.m. and CO standards.
(C) Subzone 2: 1.2 for Tier 3 NOX+HC
standards.
(D) Subzone 2: 1.5 for Tier 4 standards
and Tier 3 p.m. and CO standards.
However, there is no NTE standard for
PM emissions if the engine family’s
applicable standard for PM is at or
above 0.07 g/kW-hr.
(3) The NTE standards apply to your
engines whenever they operate within
the NTE zone for an NTE sampling
period of at least thirty seconds, during
which only a single operator demand set
point may be selected. Engine operation
during a change in operator demand is
excluded from any NTE sampling
period. There is no maximum NTE
sampling period.
(4) Collect emission data for
determining compliance with the NTE
standards using the procedures
described in subpart F of this part.
(5) You may ask us to accept as
compliant an engine that does not fully
meet specific requirements under the
applicable NTE standards where such
deficiencies are necessary for safety.
*
*
*
*
*
■ 161. Section 1042.104 is amended by
revising paragraph (a)(2) to read as
follows:
§ 1042.104 Exhaust emission standards
for Category 3 engines.
(a) * * *
(2) NOX standards apply based on the
engine’s model year and maximum inuse engine speed as shown in the
following table:
TABLE 1 TO § 1042.104—NOX EMISSION STANDARDS FOR CATEGORY 3 ENGINES
[g/kW-hr]
Maximum in-use engine speed
Emission
standards
Model
year
Tier 1 ............................................................
Tier 2 ............................................................
Tier 3 c ..........................................................
2004–2010 b .................................................
2011–2015 ...................................................
2016 and later ..............................................
Less than 130
RPM
130–2000 RPM a
17.0
14.4
3.4
45.0 · n(¥0.20) .....
44.0 · n(¥0.23) .....
9.0 · n(¥0.20) .......
Over 2000
RPM
9.8
7.7
2.0
a Applicable standards are calculated from n (maximum in-use engine speed, in RPM, as specified in § 1042.140). Round the standards to one
decimal place.
b Tier 1 NO standards apply as specified in 40 CFR part 94 for engines originally manufactured in model years 2004 through 2010. They are
X
shown here only for reference.
c For engines designed with on-off controls as specified in § 1042.115(g), the Tier 2 standards continue to apply anytime the engine has disabled its Tier 3 NOX emission controls.
*
*
*
*
*
162. Section 1042.110 is amended by
removing and reserving paragraph (b)
and revising paragraph (d).
The revision reads as follows:
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■
§ 1042.110 Recording reductant use and
other diagnostic functions.
*
*
*
*
*
(d) For Category 3 engines equipped
with on-off NOX controls (as allowed by
§ 1042.115(g)), you must also equip your
engine to continuously monitor NOX
concentrations in the exhaust. See
§ 1042.650 to determine if this
requirement applies for a given Category
1 or Category 2 engine. For
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measurement technologies involving
discrete sampling events, measurements
are considered continuous if they repeat
at least once every 60 seconds; we may
approve a longer sampling period if it is
necessary or appropriate for sufficiently
accurate measurements. Describe your
system for onboard NOX measurements
in your application for certification. Use
good engineering judgment to alert
operators if measured NOX
concentrations indicate malfunctioning
emission controls. Record any such
operation in nonvolatile computer
memory. You are not required to
monitor NOX concentrations during
operation for which the emission
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controls may be disabled under
§ 1042.115(g). For the purpose of this
paragraph (d), ‘‘malfunctioning
emission controls’’ means any condition
in which the measured NOX
concentration exceeds the highest value
expected when the engine is in
compliance with the installed engine
standard of § 1042.104(g). Use good
engineering judgment to determine
these expected values during
production-line testing of the engine
using linear interpolation between test
points and accounting for the degree to
which the cycle-weighted emissions of
the engine are below the standard. You
may also use additional intermediate
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test points measured during the
production-line test. Note that the
provisions of paragraph (a) of this
section also apply for SCR systems
covered by this paragraph (d). For
engines subject to both the provisions of
paragraph (a) of this section and this
paragraph (d), use good engineering
judgment to integrate diagnostic features
to comply with both paragraphs. For
example, engines may use on-off NOX
controls to disable certain emission
control functions only if the diagnostic
system indicates that the monitoring
described in this paragraph (d) is active.
■ 163. Section 1042.120 is amended by
revising paragraph (b) introductory text
to read as follows:
§ 1042.120 Emission-related warranty
requirements.
*
*
*
*
*
(b) Warranty period. Your emissionrelated warranty must be valid for at
least as long as the minimum warranty
periods listed in this paragraph (b) in
hours of operation and years, whichever
comes first. You may offer an emissionrelated warranty more generous than we
require. The emission-related warranty
for the engine may not be shorter than
any basic mechanical warranty you
provide without charge for the engine.
Similarly, the emission-related warranty
for any component may not be shorter
than any warranty you provide without
charge for that component. This means
that your warranty may not treat
emission-related and nonemissionrelated defects differently for any
component. If an engine has no hour
meter, we base the warranty periods in
this paragraph (b) only on the engine’s
age (in years). The warranty period
begins when the engine is placed into
service. The following minimum
warranty periods apply:
*
*
*
*
*
■ 164. Section 1042.125 is amended by
revising paragraphs (a)(2)(i), (a)(3)(i), (c),
and (e) to read as follows:
§ 1042.125
Maintenance instructions.
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(a) * * *
(2) * * *
(i) For EGR-related filters and coolers,
DEF filters, PCV valves, and fuel
injector tips (cleaning only), the
minimum interval is 1,500 hours.
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(3) * * *
(i) For EGR-related filters and coolers,
DEF filters, PCV valves, and fuel
injector tips (cleaning only), the
minimum interval is 1,500 hours.
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(c) Special maintenance. You may
specify more frequent maintenance to
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address problems related to special
situations, such as atypical engine
operation. You must clearly state that
this additional maintenance is
associated with the special situation you
are addressing. You may also address
maintenance of low-use engines (such
as recreational or stand-by engines) by
specifying the maintenance interval in
terms of calendar months or years in
addition to your specifications in terms
of engine operating hours. All special
maintenance instructions must be
consistent with good engineering
judgment. We may disapprove your
maintenance instructions if we
determine that you have specified
special maintenance steps to address
maintenance that is unlikely to occur in
use, or engine operation that is not
atypical. For example, this paragraph (c)
does not allow you to design engines
that require special maintenance for a
certain type of expected operation. If we
determine that certain maintenance
items do not qualify as special
maintenance under this paragraph (c),
you may identify this as recommended
additional maintenance under
paragraph (b) of this section.
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(e) Maintenance that is not emissionrelated. For maintenance unrelated to
emission controls, you may schedule
any amount of inspection or
maintenance. You may also take these
inspection or maintenance steps during
service accumulation on your emissiondata engines, as long as they are
reasonable and technologically
necessary. This might include adding
engine oil, changing air, fuel, or oil
filters, servicing engine-cooling systems,
and adjusting idle speed, governor,
engine bolt torque, valve lash, or
injector lash. You may not perform this
nonemission-related maintenance on
emission-data engines more often than
the least frequent intervals that you
recommend to the ultimate purchaser.
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■ 165. Section 1042.130 is amended by
revising paragraph (b) to read as follows:
§ 1042.130 Installation instructions for
vessel manufacturers.
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(b) Make sure these instructions have
the following information:
(1) Include the heading: ‘‘Emissionrelated installation instructions’’.
(2) State: ‘‘Failing to follow these
instructions when installing a certified
engine in a vessel violates federal law
(40 CFR 1068.105(b)), subject to fines or
other penalties as described in the Clean
Air Act.’’
(3) Describe the instructions needed
to properly install the exhaust system
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and any other components. Include
instructions consistent with the
requirements of § 1042.205(u).
(4) Describe any necessary steps for
installing the diagnostic system
described in § 1042.110.
(5) Describe how your certification is
limited for any type of application. . For
example, if your engines are certified
only for constant-speed operation, tell
vessel manufacturers not to install the
engines in variable-speed applications
or modify the governor.
(6) Describe any other instructions to
make sure the installed engine will
operate according to design
specifications in your application for
certification. This may include, for
example, instructions for installing
aftertreatment devices when installing
the engines.
(7) State: ‘‘If you install the engine in
a way that makes the engine’s emission
control information label hard to read
during normal engine maintenance, you
must place a duplicate label on the
vessel, as described in 40 CFR
1068.105.’’
(8) Describe any vessel labeling
requirements specified in § 1042.135.
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■ 166. Section 1042.135 is amended by
revising paragraphs (c), (d)(1), and (e)
introductory text to read as follows:
§ 1042.135
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Labeling.
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(c) The label must—
(1) Include the heading ‘‘EMISSION
CONTROL INFORMATION’’.
(2) Include your full corporate name
and trademark. You may identify
another company and use its trademark
instead of yours if you comply with the
branding provisions of 40 CFR 1068.45.
(3) Include EPA’s standardized
designation for the engine family (and
subfamily, where applicable).
(4) Identify all the emission standards
that apply to the engine (or FELs, if
applicable). If you do not declare an FEL
under subpart H of this part, you may
alternatively state the engine’s category,
displacement (in liters or L/cyl),
maximum engine power (in kW), and
power density (in kW/L) as needed to
determine the emission standards for
the engine family. You may specify
displacement, maximum engine power,
or power density as a range consistent
with the ranges listed in § 1042.101. See
§ 1042.140 for descriptions of how to
specify per-cylinder displacement,
maximum engine power, and power
density.
(5) State the date of manufacture
[DAY (optional), MONTH, and YEAR];
however, you may omit this from the
label if you stamp, engrave, or otherwise
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permanently identify it elsewhere on
the engine, in which case you must also
describe in your application for
certification where you will identify the
date on the engine.
(6) Identify the application(s) for
which the engine family is certified
(such as constant-speed auxiliary,
variable-speed propulsion engines used
with fixed-pitch propellers, etc.). If the
engine is certified as a recreational
engine, state: ‘‘INSTALLING THIS
RECREATIONAL ENGINE IN A
COMMERCIAL VESSEL OR USING THE
VESSEL FOR COMMERCIAL
PURPOSES MAY VIOLATE FEDERAL
LAW SUBJECT TO CIVIL PENALTY (40
CFR 1042.601).’’
(7) For engines using sulfur-sensitive
technologies, state: ‘‘ULTRA LOW
SULFUR DIESEL FUEL ONLY’’.
(8) State the useful life for your engine
family if the applicable useful life is
based on the provisions of
§ 1042.101(e)(2) or (3), or
§ 1042.104(d)(2).
(9) Identify the emission control
system. Use terms and abbreviations as
described in 40 CFR 1068.45. You may
omit this information from the label if
there is not enough room for it and you
put it in the owners manual instead.
(10) State: ‘‘THIS MARINE ENGINE
COMPLIES WITH U.S. EPA
REGULATIONS FOR [MODEL YEAR].’’
(11) For a Category 1 or Category 2
engine that can be modified to operate
on residual fuel, but has not been
certified to meet the standards on such
a fuel, include the statement: ‘‘THIS
ENGINE IS CERTIFIED FOR
OPERATION ONLY WITH DIESEL
FUEL. MODIFYING THE ENGINE TO
OPERATE ON RESIDUAL OR
INTERMEDIATE FUEL MAY BE A
VIOLATION OF FEDERAL LAW
SUBJECT TO CIVIL PENALTIES.’’
(12) For an engine equipped with onoff emissions controls as allowed by
§ 1042.115, include the statement:
‘‘THIS ENGINE IS CERTIFIED WITH
ON–OFF EMISSION CONTROLS.
OPERATION OF THE ENGINE
CONTRARY TO 40 CFR 1042.115(g) IS
A VIOLATION OF FEDERAL LAW
SUBJECT TO CIVIL PENALTIES.’’
(13) For engines intended for
installation on domestic or public
vessels, include the following statement:
‘‘THIS ENGINE DOES NOT COMPLY
WITH INTERNATIONAL MARINE
REGULATIONS FOR COMMERCIAL
VESSELS UNLESS IT IS ALSO
COVERED BY AN EIAPP
CERTIFICATE.’’
(d) * * *
(1) If your emission control
information label includes all the
information described in paragraphs
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(c)(5) and (9) of this section, you may
identify other emission standards that
the engine meets or does not meet (such
as international standards). You may
include this information by adding it to
the statement we specify or by including
a separate statement.
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(e) For engines using sulfur-sensitive
technologies, create a separate label
with the statement: ‘‘ULTRA LOW
SULFUR DIESEL FUEL ONLY’’.
Permanently attach this label to the
vessel near the fuel inlet or, if you do
not manufacture the vessel, take one of
the following steps to ensure that the
vessel will be properly labeled:
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■ 167. Section 1042.140 is amended by
revising paragraph (e) to read as follows:
§ 1042.140 Maximum engine power,
displacement, power density, and maximum
in-use engine speed.
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(e) Throughout this part, references to
a specific power value for an engine are
based on maximum engine power. For
example, the group of engines with
maximum engine power below 600 kW
may be referred to as engines below 600
kW.
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Subpart C—Certifying Engine Families
168. Section 1042.201 is amended by
revising paragraphs (a) and (g) to read as
follows:
■
§ 1042.201 General requirements for
obtaining a certificate of conformity.
(a) You must send us a separate
application for a certificate of
conformity for each engine family. A
certificate of conformity is valid for new
production from the indicated effective
date until the end of the model year for
which it is issued, which may not
extend beyond December 31 of that
year. No certificate will be issued after
December 31 of the model year. You
may amend your application for
certification after the end of the model
year in certain circumstances as
described in §§ 1042.220 and 1042.225.
You must renew your certification
annually for any engines you continue
to produce.
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(g) We may require you to deliver
your test engines to a facility we
designate for our testing (see
§ 1042.235(c)). Alternatively, you may
choose to deliver another engine that is
identical in all material respects to the
test engine, or another engine that we
determine can appropriately serve as an
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emission-data engine for the engine
family.
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■ 169. Section 1042.205 is amended by
revising paragraphs (g), (o), (r)(1), and
(bb)(1) to read as follows:
§ 1042.205
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Application requirements.
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(g) List the specifications of the test
fuel(s) to show that they fall within the
required ranges we specify in 40 CFR
part 1065.
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(o) Present emission data for HC,
NOX, PM, and CO on an emission-data
engine to show your engines meet
emission standards as specified in
§§ 1042.101 or 1042.104. Note that you
must submit PM data for all engines,
whether or not a PM standard applies.
Show emission figures before and after
applying adjustment factors for
regeneration and deterioration factors
for each pollutant and for each engine.
If we specify more than one grade of any
fuel type (for example, high-sulfur and
low-sulfur diesel fuel), you need to
submit test data only for one grade,
unless the regulations of this part
specify otherwise for your engine.
Include emission results for each mode
for Category 3 engines or for other
engines if you do discrete-mode testing
under § 1042.505. For engines using onoff controls as described in
§ 1042.115(g), include emission data
demonstrating compliance with the Tier
2 standards when the engines Tier 3
NOx emission controls are disabled.
Note that §§ 1042.235 and 1042.245
allows you to submit an application in
certain cases without new emission
data.
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(r) * * *
(1) Report all valid test results
involving measurement of pollutants for
which emission standards apply. Also
indicate whether there are test results
from invalid tests or from any other tests
of the emission-data engine, whether or
not they were conducted according to
the test procedures of subpart F of this
part. We may require you to report these
additional test results. We may ask you
to send other information to confirm
that your tests were valid under the
requirements of this part and 40 CFR
part 1065.
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(bb) * * *
(1) Describe your normal practice for
importing engines. For example, this
may include identifying the names and
addresses of any agents you have
authorized to import your engines.
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170. Section 1042.225 is amended by
revising the introductory text and
adding paragraph (b)(4) to read as
follows:
■
§ 1042.225 Amending applications for
certification.
Before we issue you a certificate of
conformity, you may amend your
application to include new or modified
engine configurations, subject to the
provisions of this section. After we have
issued your certificate of conformity,
but before the end of the model year,
you may send us an amended
application requesting that we include
new or modified engine configurations
within the scope of the certificate,
subject to the provisions of this section.
Before the end of the model year, you
must amend your application if any
changes occur with respect to any
information that is included or should
be included in your application. After
the end of the model year, you may
amend your application only to update
maintenance instructions as described
in § 1042.220 or to modify an FEL as
described in paragraph (f) of this
section.
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(b) * * *
(4) Include any other information
needed to make your application correct
and complete.
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■ 171. Section 1042.235 is amended by
revising paragraphs (b), (c)(4), and (d)(1)
to read as follows:
§ 1042.235 Emission testing related to
certification.
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(b) Test your emission-data engines
using the procedures and equipment
specified in subpart F of this part. In the
case of dual-fuel engines, measure
emissions when operating with each
type of fuel for which you intend to
certify the engine. In the case of flexiblefuel engines, measure emissions when
operating with the fuel mixture that best
represents in-use operation or is most
likely to have the highest NOX
emissions (or NOX+HC emissions for
engines subject to NOX+HC standards),
though you may ask us to instead to
perform tests with both fuels separately
if you can show that intermediate
mixtures are not likely to occur in use.
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(c) * * *
(4) Before we test one of your engines,
we may calibrate it within normal
production tolerances for anything we
do not consider an adjustable parameter.
For example, this would apply for an
engine parameter that is subject to
production variability because it is
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adjustable during production, but is not
considered an adjustable parameter (as
defined in § 1042.901) because it is
permanently sealed. For parameters that
relate to a level of performance that is
itself subject to a specified range (such
as maximum power output), we will
generally perform any calibration under
this paragraph (c)(4) in a way that keeps
performance within the specified range.
(d) * * *
(1) The engine family from the
previous model year differs from the
current engine family only with respect
to model year, items identified in
§ 1042.225(a), or other characteristics
unrelated to emissions. We may waive
this criterion for differences we
determine not to be relevant.
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■ 172. Section 1042.240 is amended by
revising paragraph (c)(3), adding
paragraphs (c)(4) and (5), and revising
paragraph (d) to read as follows:
§ 1042.240 Demonstrating compliance with
exhaust emission standards.
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(c) * * *
(3) Sawtooth deterioration patterns.
The deterioration factors described in
paragraphs (c)(1) and (2) of this section
assume that the highest useful life
emissions occur either at the end of
useful life or at the low-hour test point.
The provisions of this paragraph (c)(3)
apply where good engineering judgment
indicates that the highest emissions over
the useful life will occur between these
two points. For example, emissions may
increase with service accumulation
until a certain maintenance step is
performed, then return to the low-hour
emission levels and begin increasing
again. Base deterioration factors for
engines with such emission patterns on
the difference between (or ratio of) the
point of the sawtooth at which the
highest emissions occur and the lowhour test point. Note that this applies
for maintenance-related deterioration
only where we allow such critical
emission-related maintenance.
(4) Deterioration factor for crankcase
emissions. If your engine vents
crankcase emissions to the exhaust or to
the atmosphere, you must account for
crankcase emission deterioration, using
good engineering judgment. You may
use separate deterioration factors for
crankcase emissions of each pollutant
(either multiplicative or additive) or
include the effects in combined
deterioration factors that include
exhaust and crankcase emissions
together for each pollutant.
(5) Dual-fuel and flexible-fuel engines.
In the case of dual-fuel and flexible-fuel
engines, apply deterioration factors
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separately for each fuel type. You may
accumulate service hours on a single
emission-data engine using the type of
fuel or the fuel mixture expected to have
the highest combustion and exhaust
temperatures; you may ask us to
approve a different fuel mixture if you
demonstrate that a different criterion is
more appropriate.
(d) Determine the official emission
result for each pollutant to at least one
more decimal place than the applicable
standard. Apply the deterioration factor
to the official emission result, as
described in paragraph (c) of this
section, then round the adjusted figure
to the same number of decimal places as
the emission standard. Compare the
rounded emission levels to the emission
standard for each emission-data engine.
In the case of NOX+HC standards, apply
the deterioration factor to each pollutant
and then add the results before
rounding.
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■ 173. Section 1042.250 is amended by
revising paragraphs (b)(3)(iv) and (c) to
read as follows:
§ 1042.250
Recordkeeping and reporting.
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(b) * * *
(3) * * *
(iv) All your emission tests, including
the date and purpose of each test and
documentation of test parameters as
specified in part 40 CFR part 1065.
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(c) Keep required data from emission
tests and all other information specified
in this section for eight years after we
issue your certificate. If you use the
same emission data or other information
for a later model year, the eight-year
period restarts with each year that you
continue to rely on the information.
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■ 174. Section 1042.255 is amended by
revising paragraphs (c)(2), (d), and (e) to
read as follows:
§ 1042.255
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EPA decisions.
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(c) * * *
(2) Submit false or incomplete
information (paragraph (e) of this
section applies if this is fraudulent).
This includes doing anything after
submission of your application to
render any of the submitted information
false or incomplete.
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(d) We may void the certificate of
conformity for an engine family if you
fail to keep records, send reports, or give
us information as required under this
part or the Clean Air Act. Note that
these are also violations of 40 CFR
1068.101(a)(2).
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(e) We may void your certificate if we
find that you intentionally submitted
false or incomplete information. This
includes rendering submitted
information false or incomplete after
submission.
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Subpart D—Testing Production-Line
Engines
175. Section 1042.302 is amended by
revising paragraph (a) to read as follows:
■
§ 1042.302 Applicability of this subpart for
Category 3 engines.
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(a) You must test each Category 3
engine at the sea trial of the vessel in
which it is installed or within the first
300 hours of operation, whichever
occurs first. This may involve testing a
fully assembled production engine
before it is installed in the vessel. Since
you must test each engine, the
provisions of §§ 1042.310 and
1042.315(b) do not apply for Category 3
engines. If we determine that an engine
failure under this subpart is caused by
defective components or design
deficiencies, we may revoke or suspend
your certificate for the engine family as
described in § 1042.340. If we determine
that an engine failure under this subpart
is caused only by incorrect assembly,
we may suspend your certificate for the
engine family as described in
§ 1042.325. If the engine fails, you may
continue operating only to complete the
sea trial and return to port. It is a
violation of 40 CFR 1068.101(b)(1) to
operate the vessel further until you
remedy the cause of failure. Each twohour period of such operation
constitutes a separate offense. A
violation lasting less than two hours
constitutes a single offense.
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Subpart F—Test Procedures
176. Section 1042.501 is amended by
revising paragraphs (d), (e), and (f) and
adding paragraph (h) to read as follows:
■
§ 1042.501
test?
How do I run a valid emission
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(d) Adjust measured emissions to
account for aftertreatment technology
with infrequent regeneration as
described in § 1042.525.
(e) Duty-cycle testing is limited to
atmospheric pressures between 91.000
and 103.325 kPa.
(f) You may use special or alternate
procedures to the extent we allow them
under 40 CFR 1065.10.
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(h) This subpart is addressed to you
as a manufacturer, but it applies equally
to anyone who does testing for you, and
to us when we perform testing to
determine if your engines meet emission
standards.
■ 177. Section 1042.505 is amended by
revising paragraph (b)(5)(iii) to read as
follows:
§ 1042.505 Testing engines using discretemode or ramped-modal duty cycles.
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(b) * * *
(5) * * *
(iii) Use the 8-mode duty cycle or the
corresponding ramped-modal cycle
described in 40 CFR part 1039,
Appendix II, paragraph (c) for variablespeed auxiliary engines with maximum
engine power at or above 19 kW that are
not propeller-law engines.
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■ 178. Section 1042.515 is amended by
revising paragraphs (f)(2), (f)(4), and (g)
to read as follows:
§ 1042.515 Test procedures related to notto-exceed standards.
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(f) * * *
(2) You may ask us to approve a
Limited Testing Region (LTR). An LTR
is a region of engine operation, within
the applicable NTE zone, where you
have demonstrated that your engine
family operates for no more than 5.0
percent of its normal in-use operation,
on a time-weighted basis. You must
specify an LTR using boundaries based
on engine speed and power (or torque),
where the LTR boundaries must
coincide with some portion of the
boundary defining the overall NTE
zone. Any emission data collected
within an LTR for a time duration that
exceeds 5.0 percent of the duration of its
respective NTE sampling period will be
excluded when determining compliance
with the applicable NTE standards. Any
emission data collected within an LTR
for a time duration of 5.0 percent or less
of the duration of the respective NTE
sampling period will be included when
determining compliance with the NTE
standards.
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(4) You may exclude emission data
based on catalytic aftertreatment
temperatures as follows:
(i) For an engine equipped with a
catalytic NOX aftertreatment system,
exclude NOX emission data that is
collected when the exhaust temperature
at any time during the NTE event is less
than 250 °C.
(ii) For an engine equipped with an
oxidizing catalytic aftertreatment
system, exclude HC and CO emission
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data that is collected when the exhaust
temperature at any time during the NTE
event is less than 250 °C. Also exclude
PM emission data if the applicable PM
standard (or family emission limit) is
above 0.06 g/kW-hr. Where there are
parallel paths, measure the temperature
30 cm downstream of the last oxidizing
aftertreatment device in the path with
the greatest exhaust flow.
(iii) Measure exhaust temperature
within 30 cm downstream of the last
applicable catalytic aftertreatment
device. Where there are parallel paths,
use good engineering judgment to
measure the temperature within 30 cm
downstream of the last applicable
catalytic aftertreatment device in the
path with the greatest exhaust flow.
(g) Emission sampling is not valid for
NTE testing if it includes any active
regeneration, unless the emission
averaging period includes the complete
regeneration event(s) and the full period
of engine operation until the start of the
next regeneration event. This provision
applies only for engines that send an
electronic signal indicating the start of
the regeneration event.
■ 179. Section 1042.525 is revised to
read as follows:
§ 1042.525 How do I adjust emission levels
to account for infrequently regenerating
aftertreatment devices?
For engines using aftertreatment
technology with infrequent regeneration
events that may occur during testing,
take one of the following approaches to
account for the emission impact of
regeneration, or use an alternate
methodology that we approve for
Category 3 engines:
(a) You may use the calculation
methodology described in 40 CFR
1065.680 to adjust measured emission
results. Do this by developing an
upward adjustment factor and a
downward adjustment factor for each
pollutant based on measured emission
data and observed regeneration
frequency as follows:
(1) Adjustment factors should
generally apply to an entire engine
family, but you may develop separate
adjustment factors for different
configurations within an engine family.
Use the adjustment factors from this
section in all testing for the engine
family.
(2) You may use carryover or carryacross data to establish adjustment
factors for an engine family as described
in § 1042.235, consistent with good
engineering judgment.
(3) Determine the frequency of
regeneration, F, as described in 40 CFR
1065.680 from in-use operating data or
from running repetitive tests in a
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laboratory. If the engine is designed for
regeneration at fixed time intervals, you
may apply good engineering judgment
to determine F based on those design
parameters.
(4) Identify the value of F in each
application for certification for which it
applies.
(b) You may ask us to approve an
alternate methodology to account for
regeneration events. We will generally
limit approval to cases where your
engines use aftertreatment technology
with extremely infrequent regeneration
and you are unable to apply the
provisions of this section.
(c) You may choose to make no
adjustments to measured emission
results if you determine that
regeneration does not significantly affect
emission levels for an engine family (or
configuration) or if it is not practical to
identify when regeneration occurs. If
you choose not to make adjustments
under paragraph (a) or (b) of this
section, your engines must meet
emission standards for all testing,
without regard to regeneration.
Subpart G—Special Compliance
Provisions
180. Section 1042.601 is amended by
adding paragraph (j) to read as follows:
■
§ 1042.601 General compliance provisions
for marine engines and vessels.
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(j) Subpart C of this part describes
how to test and certify dual-fuel and
flexible-fuel engines. Some multi-fuel
engines may not fit either of those
defined terms. For such engines, we will
determine whether it is most
appropriate to treat them as single-fuel
engines, dual-fuel engines, or flexiblefuel engines based on the range of
possible and expected fuel mixtures. For
example, an engine might burn natural
gas but initiate combustion with a pilot
injection of diesel fuel. If the engine is
designed to operate with a single fueling
algorithm (i.e., fueling rates are fixed at
a given engine speed and load
condition), we would generally treat it
as a single-fuel engine, In this context,
the combination of diesel fuel and
natural gas would be its own fuel type.
If the engine is designed to also operate
on diesel fuel alone, we would generally
treat it as a dual-fueled engine. If the
engine is designed to operate on varying
mixtures of the two fuels, we would
generally treat it as a flexible-fueled
engine. To the extent that requirements
vary for the different fuels or fuel
mixtures, we may apply the more
stringent requirements.
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■
181. Section 1042.605 is amended by
revising paragraphs (e)(3) to read as
follows:
the Coast Guard are not considered
inspections (see 46 U.S.C. 3301 and 46
U.S.C. 4502).
§ 1042.605 Dressing engines already
certified to other standards for nonroad or
heavy-duty highway engines for marine
use.
§ 1042.640
*
*
*
*
*
(e) * * *
(3) Send the Designated Compliance
Officer written notification describing
your plans before using the provisions
of this section. In addition, by February
28 of each calendar year (or less often
if we tell you), send the Designated
Compliance Officer a signed letter with
all the following information:
(i) Identify your full corporate name,
address, and telephone number.
(ii) List the engine models for which
you used this exemption in the previous
year and describe your basis for meeting
the sales restrictions of paragraph (d)(4)
of this section.
(iii) State: ‘‘We prepared each listed
engine model for marine application
without making any changes that could
increase its certified emission levels, as
described in 40 CFR 1042.605.’’
*
*
*
*
*
■ 182. Section 1042.610 is amended by
revising paragraph (e)(2) to read as
follows:
§ 1042.610 Certifying auxiliary marine
engines to land-based standards.
*
*
*
*
*
(e) * * *
(2) Send the Designated Compliance
Officer written notification describing
your plans before using the provisions
of this section. In addition, by February
28 of each calendar year (or less often
if we tell you), send the Designated
Compliance Officer a signed letter with
all the following information:
(i) Identify your full corporate name,
address, and telephone number.
(ii) List the engine models for which
you used this exemption in the previous
year and describe your basis for meeting
the sales restrictions of paragraph (d)(3)
of this section.
(iii) State: ‘‘We prepared each listed
engine model for marine application
without making any changes that could
increase its certified emission levels, as
described in 40 CFR 1042.610.’’
*
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*
*
■ 183. Section 1042.630 is amended by
revising paragraph (f) to read as follows:
§ 1042.630
Personal-use exemption.
*
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*
(f) The vessel must be a vessel that is
not classed or subject to Coast Guard
inspections or surveys. Note that
dockside examinations performed by
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184. Section 1042.640 is removed.
185. Section 1042.650 is amended by
revising paragraphs (a) and (d) to read
as follows:
■
■
§ 1042.650
*
Migratory vessels.
*
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*
(a) Temporary exemption. A vessel
owner may ask us for a temporary
exemption from the tampering
prohibition in 40 CFR 1068.101(b)(1) for
a vessel if it will operate for an extended
period outside the United States where
ULSD is not available. In your request,
describe where the vessel will operate,
how long it will operate there, why
ULSD will be unavailable, and how you
will modify the engine, including its
emission controls. If we approve your
request, you may modify the engine, but
only as needed to disable or remove the
emission controls needed for meeting
the Tier 4 standards. You must return
the engine to its original certified
configuration before the vessel returns
to the United States to avoid violating
the tampering prohibition in 40 CFR
1068.101(b)(1). We may set additional
conditions to prevent circumvention of
the provisions of this part.
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(d) Auxiliary engines on Category 3
vessels. Auxiliary engines that will be
installed on vessels with Category 3
propulsion engines qualify for an
exemption from the standards of this
part provided all the following
conditions are met:
(1) To be eligible for this exemption,
the engine must meet all of the
following criteria.
(i) The engine must be certified to the
applicable NOX standards of Annex VI
and meet all other applicable
requirements of 40 CFR part 1043.
Engines installed on vessels constructed
on or after January 1, 2016 must
conform fully to the Annex VI Tier III
NOX standards as described in 40 CFR
part 1043 and meet all other applicable
requirements in 40 CFR part 1043.
Engines that would otherwise be subject
to the Tier 4 standards of this part must
also conform fully to the Annex VI Tier
III NOX standards as described in 40
CFR part 1043.
(ii) The engine may not be used for
propulsion (except for emergency
engines).
(iii) Engines certified to the Annex VI
Tier III standards may be equipped with
on-off NOX controls, as long as they
conform to the requirements of
§§ 1042.110(d) and 1042.115(g);
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however, the engines must comply fully
with the Annex VI Tier II standards
when the emission controls are
disabled, and meet any other
requirements that apply under Annex
VI.
(2) You must notify the Designated
Compliance Officer of your intent to use
this exemption before you introduce
engines into U.S. commerce, not later
than the time that you apply for an
EIAPP certificate for the engine under
40 CFR part 1043.
(3) The remanufactured engine
requirements of subpart I of this part do
not apply.
(4) If you introduce an engine into
U.S. commerce under this paragraph (d),
you must meet the labeling
requirements in § 1042.135, but add the
following statement instead of the
compliance statement in
§ 1042.135(c)(10):
THIS ENGINE DOES NOT COMPLY
WITH CURRENT U.S. EPA EMISSION
STANDARDS UNDER 40 CFR 1042.650
AND IS FOR USE SOLELY IN VESSELS
WITH CATEGORY 3 PROPULSION
ENGINES. INSTALLATION OR USE OF
THIS ENGINE IN ANY OTHER
APPLICATION MAY BE A VIOLATION
OF FEDERAL LAW SUBJECT TO CIVIL
PENALTY.
(5) The reporting requirements of
§ 1042.660 apply for engines exempted
under this paragraph (d).
■ 186. Section 1042.655 is amended by
revising the section heading and
paragraph (b) to read as follows:
§ 1042.655 Special certification provisions
for Category 3 engines with aftertreatment.
*
*
*
*
(b) Required testing. The emissiondata engine must be tested as specified
in subpart F of this part to verify that
the engine-out emissions comply with
the Tier 2 standards. The catalyst
material or other aftertreatment device
must be tested under conditions that
accurately represent actual engine
conditions for the test points. This
catalyst or aftertreatment testing may be
performed on a benchscale.
*
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*
■ 187. Section 1042.660 is amended by
revising paragraphs (b) and (c)(1) to read
as follows:
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vessels with auxiliary engines certified
to Annex VI standards under
§ 1042.650(d). Failure to comply with
the requirements of this paragraph is a
violation of 40 CFR 1068.101(a)(2). Note
that such operation is a violation of 40
CFR 1068.101(b)(1).
(c) * * *
(1) The requirements of this paragraph
(c)(1) apply only for Category 3 engines.
All maintenance, repair, adjustment,
and alteration of Category 3 engines
subject to the provisions of this part
performed by any owner, operator or
other maintenance provider must be
performed using good engineering
judgment, in such a manner that the
engine continues (after the maintenance,
repair, adjustment or alteration) to meet
the emission standards it was certified
as meeting prior to the need for service.
This includes but is not limited to
complying with the maintenance
instructions described in § 1042.125.
Adjustments are limited to the range
specified by the engine manufacturer in
the approved application for
certification. Note that where a repair
(or other maintenance) cannot be
completed while at sea, it is not a
violation to continue operating the
engine to reach your destination.
*
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*
■ 188. Section 1042.670 is amended by
revising paragraph (d) to read as
follows:
§ 1042.670 Special provisions for gas
turbine engines.
*
*
*
*
*
(d) Equivalent displacement. Apply
displacement-based provisions of this
part by calculating an equivalent
displacement from maximum engine
power. The equivalent per-cylinder
displacement (in liters) equals
maximum engine power in kW
multiplied by 0.00311, except that all
gas turbines with maximum engine
power above 9,300 kW are considered to
have an equivalent per-cylinder
displacement of 29.0 liters. Also,
determine the appropriate Tier 3
standards for Category 1 engines based
on the engine having an equivalent
power density below 35 kW per liter.
*
*
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*
*
§ 1042.660 Requirements for vessel
manufacturers, owners, and operators.
Subpart H—Averaging, Banking, and
Trading for Certification
*
■
*
*
*
*
(b) For vessels equipped with SCR
systems requiring the use of urea or
other reductants, owners and operators
must report to the Designated
Enforcement Officer within 30 days any
operation of such vessels without the
appropriate reductant. This includes
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189. Section 1042.701 is amended by
adding paragraphs (j) and (k) to read as
follows:
§ 1042.701
General provisions.
*
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*
(j) NOX+HC and PM credits generated
under 40 CFR part 94 may be used
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under this part in the same manner as
NOX+HC and PM credits generated
under this part.
(k) You may use either of the
following approaches to retire or forego
emission credits:
(1) You may retire emission credits
generated from any number of your
engines. This may be considered
donating emission credits to the
environment. Identify any such credits
in the reports described in § 1042.730.
Engines must comply with the
applicable FELs even if you donate or
sell the corresponding emission credits
under this paragraph (k). Those credits
may no longer be used by anyone to
demonstrate compliance with any EPA
emission standards.
(2) You may certify a family using an
FEL below the emission standard as
described in this part and choose not to
generate emission credits for that
family. If you do this, you do not need
to calculate emission credits for those
families and you do not need to submit
or keep the associated records described
in this subpart for that family.
■ 190. Section 1042.705 is amended by
revising paragraph (c) to read as follows:
§ 1042.705 Generating and calculating
emission credits.
*
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*
*
(c) As described in § 1042.730,
compliance with the requirements of
this subpart is determined at the end of
the model year based on actual U.S.directed production volumes. Do not
include any of the following engines to
calculate emission credits:
(1) Engines with a permanent
exemption under subpart G of this part
or under 40 CFR part 1068.
(2) Exported engines.
(3) Engines not subject to the
requirements of this part, such as those
excluded under § 1042.5.
(4) [Reserved]
(5) Any other engines, where we
indicate elsewhere in this part 1042 that
they are not to be included in the
calculations of this subpart.
■ 191. Section 1042.710 is amended by
revising paragraph (c) to read as follows:
§ 1042.710
*
Averaging emission credits.
*
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*
(c) If you certify an engine family to
an FEL that exceeds the otherwise
applicable emission standard, you must
obtain enough emission credits to offset
the engine family’s deficit by the due
date for the final report required in
§ 1042.730. The emission credits used to
address the deficit may come from your
other engine families that generate
emission credits in the same model
year, from emission credits you have
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banked from previous model years, or
from emission credits generated in the
same or previous model years that you
obtained through trading.
■ 192. Section 1042.725 is amended by
revising paragraph (b)(2) to read as
follows:
§ 1042.725 Information required for the
application for certification.
*
*
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*
*
(b) * * *
(2) Detailed calculations of projected
emission credits (positive or negative)
based on projected production volumes.
We may require you to include similar
calculations from your other engine
families to demonstrate that you will be
able to avoid negative credit balances
for the model year. If you project
negative emission credits for a family,
state the source of positive emission
credits you expect to use to offset the
negative emission credits.
■ 193. Section 1042.730 is amended by
revising paragraphs (b) and (c)(2) to read
as follows:
§ 1042.730
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§ 1042.735
Recordkeeping.
(a) You must organize and maintain
your records as described in this
section.
(b) Keep the records required by this
section for at least eight years after the
due date for the end-of-year report. You
may not use emission credits for any
engines if you do not keep all the
records required under this section. You
must therefore keep these records to
continue to bank valid credits.
*
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Subpart I—Special Provisions for
Remanufactured Marine Engines
ABT reports.
*
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*
*
(b) Your end-of-year and final reports
must include the following information
for each engine family participating in
the ABT program:
(1) Engine-family designation and
averaging set.
(2) The emission standards that would
otherwise apply to the engine family.
(3) The FEL for each pollutant. If you
change the FEL after the start of
production, identify the date that you
started using the new FEL and/or give
the engine identification number for the
first engine covered by the new FEL. In
this case, identify each applicable FEL
and calculate the positive or negative
emission credits as specified in
§ 1042.225.
(4) The projected and actual U.S.directed production volumes for the
model year, as described in
§ 1042.705(c). If you changed an FEL
during the model year, identify the
actual U.S.-directed production volume
associated with each FEL.
(5) Maximum engine power for each
engine configuration, and the average
engine power weighted by U.S.-directed
production volumes for the engine
family.
(6) Useful life.
(7) Calculated positive or negative
emission credits for the whole engine
family. Identify any emission credits
that you traded, as described in
paragraph (d)(1) of this section.
(c) * * *
(2) State whether you will retain any
emission credits for banking. If you
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choose to retire emission credits that
would otherwise be eligible for banking,
identify the engine families that
generated the emission credits,
including the number of emission
credits from each family.
*
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*
*
■ 194. Section 1042.735 is amended by
revising paragraphs (a) and (b) to read
as follows:
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195. Section 1042.810 is amended by
revising paragraph (c) to read as follows:
■
§ 1042.810 Requirements for owner/
operators and installers during
remanufacture.
*
*
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*
*
(c) Your engine is not subject to the
standards of this subpart if we
determine that no certified
remanufacturing system is available for
your engine as described in § 1042.815.
For engines that are remanufactured
during multiple events within a fiveyear period, you are not required to use
a certified system until all of your
engine’s cylinders have been replaced
after the system became available. For
example, if you remanufacture your 16cylinder engine by replacing four
cylinders each January and a system
becomes available for your engine June
1, 2010, your engine must be in a
certified configuration when you
replace four cylinders in January of
2014. At that point, all 16 cylinders
would have been replaced after June 1,
2010.
*
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*
*
■ 196. Section 1042.830 is revised to
read as follows:
§ 1042.830
Labeling.
(a) The labeling requirements of this
paragraph (a) apply for remanufacturing
that is subject to the standards of this
subpart. At the time of remanufacture,
affix a permanent and legible label
identifying each engine. The label must
be—
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40699
(1) Attached in one piece so it is not
removable without being destroyed or
defaced.
(2) Secured to a part of the engine
needed for normal operation and not
normally requiring replacement.
(3) Durable and readable for the
engine’s entire useful life.
(4) Written in English.
(b) The label required under
paragraph (a) of this section must—
(1) Include the heading ‘‘EMISSION
CONTROL INFORMATION’’.
(2) Include your full corporate name
and trademark.
(3) Include EPA’s standardized
designation for the engine family.
(4) State the engine’s category,
displacement (in liters or L/cyl),
maximum engine power (in kW), and
power density (in kW/L) as needed to
determine the emission standards for
the engine family. You may specify
displacement, maximum engine power,
and power density as ranges consistent
with the ranges listed in § 1042.101. See
§ 1042.140 for descriptions of how to
specify per-cylinder displacement,
maximum engine power, and power
density.
(5) State: ‘‘THIS MARINE ENGINE
MEETS THE STANDARDS OF 40 CFR
1042, SUBPART I, FOR [CALENDAR
YEAR OF REMANUFACTURE].’’
(c) For remanufactured engines that
are subject to this subpart as described
in § 1042.801(a), but are not subject to
remanufacturing standards as allowed
by § 1042.810 or § 1042.815, you may
voluntarily add a label as specified in
paragraphs (a) and (b) of this section,
except that the label must omit the
standardized designation for the engine
family and include the following
alternative compliance statement:
‘‘THIS MARINE ENGINE IS NOT
SUBJECT TO REMANUFACTURING
STANDARDS UNDER 40 CFR 1042,
SUBPART I, FOR [CALENDAR YEAR
OF REMANUFACTURE].’’
(d) You may add information to the
emission control information label to
identify other emission standards that
the engine meets or does not meet (such
as international standards). You may
also add other information to ensure
that the engine will be properly
maintained and used.
(e) You may ask us to approve
modified labeling requirements in this
section if you show that it is necessary
or appropriate. We will approve your
request if your alternate label is
consistent with the intent of the labeling
requirements of this section.
■ 197. Section 1042.840 is amended by
revising paragraphs (c) and (o) to read
as follows:
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§ 1042.840 Application requirements for
remanufactured engines.
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(c) Summarize the cost effectiveness
analysis used to demonstrate your
system will meet the availability criteria
of § 1042.815. Identify the maximum
allowable costs for vessel modifications
to meet the criteria.
*
*
*
*
*
(o) Report all valid test results. Also
indicate whether there are test results
from invalid tests or from any other tests
of the emission-data engine, whether or
not they were conducted according to
the test procedures of subpart F of this
part. If you measure CO2, report those
emission levels. We may require you to
report these additional test results. We
may ask you to send other information
to confirm that your tests were valid
under the requirements of this part and
40 CFR part 1065.
*
*
*
*
*
Subpart J—Definitions and Other
Reference Information
198. Section 1042.901 is amended as
follows:
■ a. By revising the definition of
‘‘Designated Compliance Officer’’.
■ b. By adding definitions for
‘‘Designated Enforcement Officer’’,
‘‘Dual-fuel’’, and ‘‘Flexible-fuel’’.
■ c. By revising the definition for ‘‘Lowsulfur diesel fuel’’, ‘‘Model year’’, and
‘‘Placed into service’’.
■ d. By removing the definition for
‘‘Point of first retail sale’’.
The revisions and additions read as
follows:
■
§ 1042.901
Definitions.
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Designated Compliance Officer means
the Director, Diesel Engine Compliance
Center, U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency, 2000 Traverwood Drive, Ann
Arbor, MI 48105; complianceinfo@
epa.gov; epa.gov/otaq/verify.
Designated Enforcement Officer
means the Director, Air Enforcement
Division (2242A), U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency, 1200 Pennsylvania
Ave. NW.,Washington, DC 20460.
*
*
*
*
*
Dual-fuel means relating to an engine
designed for operation on two different
fuels but not on a continuous mixture of
those fuels (see § 1042.601(j)). For
purposes of this part, such an engine
remains a dual-fuel engine even if it is
designed for operation on three or more
different fuels. Note that this definition
differs from MARPOL Annex VI.
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*
*
Flexible-fuel means relating to an
engine designed for operation on any
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06:45 Jul 11, 2015
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mixture of two or more different fuels
(see § 1042.601(j)).
*
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*
Low-sulfur diesel fuel means one of
the following:
(1) For in-use fuels, low-sulfur diesel
fuel means a diesel fuel marketed as
low-sulfur diesel fuel having a
maximum sulfur concentration of 500
parts per million.
(2) For testing, low-sulfur diesel fuel
has the meaning given in 40 CFR part
1065.
*
*
*
*
*
Model year means any of the
following:
(1) For freshly manufactured marine
engines (see definition of ‘‘new marine
engine,’’ paragraph (1)), model year
means one of the following:
(i) Calendar year of production.
(ii) Your annual new model
production period if it is different than
the calendar year. This must include
January 1 of the calendar year for which
the model year is named. It may not
begin before January 2 of the previous
calendar year and it must end by
December 31 of the named calendar
year. For seasonal production periods
not including January 1, model year
means the calendar year in which the
production occurs, unless you choose to
certify the applicable engine family with
the following model year. For example,
if your production period is June 1,
2010 through November 30, 2010, your
model year would be 2010 unless you
choose to certify the engine family for
model year 2011.
(2) For an engine that is converted to
a marine engine after being certified and
placed into service as a motor vehicle
engine, a nonroad engine that is not a
marine engine, or a stationary engine,
model year means the calendar year in
which the engine was originally
produced. For an engine that is
converted to a marine engine after being
placed into service as a motor vehicle
engine, a nonroad engine that is not a
marine engine, or a stationary engine
without having been certified, model
year means the calendar year in which
the engine becomes a new marine
engine. (See definition of ‘‘new marine
engine,’’ paragraph (2)).
(3) For an uncertified marine engine
excluded under § 1042.5 that is later
subject to this part 1042 as a result of
being installed in a different vessel,
model year means the calendar year in
which the engine was installed in the
non-excluded vessel. For a marine
engine excluded under § 1042.5 that is
later subject to this part 1042 as a result
of reflagging the vessel, model year
means the calendar year in which the
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engine was originally manufactured. For
a marine engine that become new under
paragraph (7) of the definition of ‘‘new
marine engine,’’ model year means the
calendar year in which the engine was
originally manufactured. (See definition
of ‘‘new marine engine,’’ paragraphs (3)
and (7).)
(4) For engines that do not meet the
definition of ‘‘freshly manufactured’’
but are installed in new vessels, model
year means the calendar year in which
the engine is installed in the new vessel
(see definition of ‘‘new marine engine,’’
paragraph (4)).
(5) For remanufactured engines,
model year means the calendar year in
which the remanufacture takes place.
(6) For imported engines:
(i) For imported engines described in
paragraph (6)(i) of the definition of
‘‘new marine engine,’’ model year has
the meaning given in paragraphs (1)
through (4) of this definition.
(ii) For imported engines described in
paragraph (6)(ii) of the definition of
‘‘new marine engine,’’ model year
means the calendar year in which the
engine is remanufactured.
(iii) For imported engines described
in paragraph (6)(iii) of the definition of
‘‘new marine engine,’’ model year
means the calendar year in which the
engine is first assembled in its imported
configuration, unless specified
otherwise in this part or in 40 CFR part
1068.
(iv) For imported engines described in
paragraph (6)(iv) of the definition of
‘‘new marine engine,’’ model year
means the calendar year in which the
engine is imported.
(7) [Reserved]
(8) For freshly manufactured vessels,
model year means the calendar year in
which the keel is laid or the vessel is at
a similar stage of construction. For
vessels that become new under
paragraph (2) or (3) of the definition of
‘‘new vessel’’ (as a result of
modifications), model year means the
calendar year in which the
modifications physically begin.
*
*
*
*
*
Placed into service means put into
initial use for its intended purpose.
Engines and vessels do not qualify as
being ‘‘placed into service’’ based on
incidental use by a manufacturer or
dealer.
*
*
*
*
*
■ 199. Section 1042.905 is revised to
read as follows:
§ 1042.905 Symbols, acronyms, and
abbreviations.
The following symbols, acronyms,
and abbreviations apply to this part:
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ABT ..............
AECD ...........
CFR ..............
CH4 ...............
CO ................
CO2 ..............
cyl .................
disp. ..............
ECA ..............
EEZ ..............
EPA ..............
FEL ...............
g ...................
HC ................
IMO ..............
hr ..................
kPa ...............
kW ................
L ...................
LTR ..............
N2O ..............
NARA ...........
NMHC ..........
NOX ..............
NTE ..............
PM ................
RPM .............
SAE ..............
SCR ..............
THC ..............
THCE ...........
ULSD ............
U.S.C. ...........
Averaging, banking, and trading.
auxiliary emission control device.
Code of Federal Regulations.
methane.
carbon monoxide.
carbon dioxide.
cylinder.
displacement.
Emission Control Area.
Exclusive Economic Zone.
Environmental Protection
Agency.
Family Emission Limit.
grams.
hydrocarbon.
International Maritime Organization.
hours.
kilopascals.
kilowatts.
liters.
Limited Testing Region.
nitrous oxide.
National Archives and
Records Administration.
nonmethane hydrocarbon.
oxides of nitrogen (NO and
NO2).
not-to-exceed.
particulate matter.
revolutions per minute.
Society of Automotive Engineers.
selective catalytic reduction.
total hydrocarbon.
total hydrocarbon equivalent.
ultra low-sulfur diesel fuel.
United States Code.
200. Section 1042.910 is revised to
read as follows:
■
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§ 1042.910
Incorporation by reference.
(a) Certain material is incorporated by
reference into this part with the
approval of the Director of the Federal
Register under 5 U.S.C. 552(a) and 1
CFR part 51. To enforce any edition
other than that specified in this section,
the Environmental Protection Agency
must publish a notice of the change in
the Federal Register and the material
must be available to the public. All
approved material is available for
inspection at U.S. EPA, Air and
Radiation Docket and Information
Center, 1301 Constitution Ave. NW.,
Room B102, EPA West Building,
Washington, DC 20460, (202) 202–1744,
and is available from the sources listed
below. It is also available for inspection
at the National Archives and Records
Administration (NARA). For
information on the availability of this
material at NARA, call 202–741–6030,
or go to: https://www.archives.gov/
federal_register/code_of_federal_
regulations/ibr_locations.html.
(b) The International Maritime
Organization, 4 Albert Embankment,
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London SE1 7SR, United Kingdom, or
www.imo.org, or 44–(0)20–7735–7611.
(1) MARPOL Annex VI, Regulations
for the Prevention of Air Pollution from
Ships, Third Edition, 2013, and NOx
Technical Code 2008.
(i) Revised MARPOL Annex VI,
Regulations for the Prevention of
Pollution from Ships, Third Edition,
2013 (‘‘2008 Annex VI’’); IBR approved
for § 1042.901.
(ii) NOx Technical Code 2008,
Technical Code on Control of Emission
of Nitrogen Oxides from Marine Diesel
Engines, 2013 Edition, (‘‘NOx Technical
Code’’); IBR approved for
§§ 1042.104(g), 1042.230(d), 1042.302(c)
and (e), 1042.501(g), and 1042.901.
(iii) Annex 12, Resolution
MEPC.251(66) from the Report of the
Marine Environment Protection
Committee on its Sixty-Sixth Session,
April 25, 2014. This document describes
new and revised provisions that are
considered to be part of Annex VI and
NOx Technical Code 2008 as referenced
in paragraphs (a)(1)(i) and (ii) of this
section. IBR approved for
§§ 1042.104(g), 1042.230(d), 1042.302(c)
and (e), 1042.501(g), and 1042.901.
(2) [Reserved]
■ 201. Section 1042.915 is revised to
read as follows:
§ 1042.915
Confidential information.
The provisions of 40 CFR 1068.10
apply for information you consider
confidential.
■ 202. Section 1042.925 is revised to
read as follows:
§ 1042.925 Reporting and recordkeeping
requirements.
(a) This part includes various
requirements to submit and record data
or other information. Unless we specify
otherwise, store required records in any
format and on any media and keep them
readily available for eight years after
you send an associated application for
certification, or eight years after you
generate the data if they do not support
an application for certification. You are
expected to keep your own copy of
required records rather than relying on
someone else to keep records on your
behalf. We may review these records at
any time. You must promptly send us
organized, written records in English if
we ask for them. We may require you to
submit written records in an electronic
format.
(b) The regulations in § 1042.255, 40
CFR 1068.25, and 40 CFR 1068.101
describe your obligation to report
truthful and complete information. This
includes information not related to
certification. Failing to properly report
information and keep the records we
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specify violates 40 CFR 1068.101(a)(2),
which may involve civil or criminal
penalties.
(c) Send all reports and requests for
approval to the Designated Compliance
Officer (see § 1042.801).
(d) Any written information we
require you to send to or receive from
another company is deemed to be a
required record under this section. Such
records are also deemed to be
submissions to EPA. We may require
you to send us these records whether or
not you are a certificate holder.
(e) Under the Paperwork Reduction
Act (44 U.S.C. 3501 et seq.), the Office
of Management and Budget approves
the reporting and recordkeeping
specified in the applicable regulations.
The following items illustrate the kind
of reporting and recordkeeping we
require for engines and vessels regulated
under this part:
(1) We specify the following
requirements related to engine
certification in this part 1042:
(i) In § 1042.135 we require engine
manufacturers to keep certain records
related to duplicate labels sent to vessel
manufacturers.
(ii) In § 1042.145 we state the
requirements for interim provisions.
(iii) In subpart C of this part we
identify a wide range of information
required to certify engines.
(iv) In §§ 1042.345 and 1042.350 we
specify certain records related to
production-line testing.
(v) In subpart G of this part we
identify several reporting and
recordkeeping items for making
demonstrations and getting approval
related to various special compliance
provisions.
(vi) In §§ 1042.725, 1042.730, and
1042.735 we specify certain records
related to averaging, banking, and
trading.
(vii) In subpart I of this part we
specify certain records related to
meeting requirements for
remanufactured engines.
(2) We specify the following
requirements related to testing in 40
CFR part 1065:
(i) In 40 CFR 1065.2 we give an
overview of principles for reporting
information.
(ii) In 40 CFR 1065.10 and 1065.12 we
specify information needs for
establishing various changes to
published test procedures.
(iii) In 40 CFR 1065.25 we establish
basic guidelines for storing test
information.
(iv) In 40 CFR 1065.695 we identify
the specific information and data items
to record when measuring emissions.
(3) We specify the following
requirements related to the general
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compliance provisions in 40 CFR part
1068:
(i) In 40 CFR 1068.5 we establish a
process for evaluating good engineering
judgment related to testing and
certification.
(ii) In 40 CFR 1068.25 we describe
general provisions related to sending
and keeping information.
(iii) In 40 CFR 1068.27 we require
manufacturers to make engines available
for our testing or inspection if we make
such a request.
(iv) In 40 CFR 1068.105 we require
vessel manufacturers to keep certain
records related to duplicate labels from
engine manufacturers.
(v) In 40 CFR 1068.120 we specify
recordkeeping related to rebuilding
engines.
(vi) In 40 CFR part 1068, subpart C,
we identify several reporting and
recordkeeping items for making
demonstrations and getting approval
related to various exemptions.
(vii) In 40 CFR part 1068, subpart D,
we identify several reporting and
recordkeeping items for making
demonstrations and getting approval
related to importing engines.
(viii) In 40 CFR 1068.450 and
1068.455 we specify certain records
related to testing production-line
..........................................................
..........................................................
..........................................................
..........................................................
1 Maximum
Appendix II to Part 1042—Steady-State
Duty Cycles
(a) The following duty cycles apply as
specified in § 1042.505(b)(1):
(1) The following duty cycle applies for
discrete-mode testing:
Percent of
maximum
test power
Engine speed 1
E3 mode No.
1
2
3
4
engines in a selective enforcement
audit.
(ix) In 40 CFR 1068.501 we specify
certain records related to investigating
and reporting emission-related defects.
(x) In 40 CFR 1068.525 and 1068.530
we specify certain records related to
recalling nonconforming engines.
■ 203. Appendix II is revised to read as
follows:
Maximum test speed ......................................................................................
91% .................................................................................................................
80% .................................................................................................................
63% .................................................................................................................
100
75
50
25
Weighting
factors
0.2
0.5
0.15
0.15
test speed is defined in 40 CFR part 1065. Percent speed values are relative to maximum test speed.
(2) The following duty cycle applies for
ramped-modal testing:
Time in mode
(seconds)
RMC mode
Engine speed 1 3
Power (percent) 2 3
1a
1b
Steady-state ....................................................
Transition .........................................................
229
20
Maximum test speed ..............................................
Linear transition ......................................................
2a
2b
Steady-state ....................................................
Transition .........................................................
166
20
63% ........................................................................
Linear transition ......................................................
3a
3b
Steady-state ....................................................
Transition .........................................................
570
20
91% ........................................................................
Linear transition ......................................................
4a
Steady-state ....................................................
175
80% ........................................................................
100%.
Linear transition in
torque.
25%.
Linear transition in
torque.
75%.
Linear transition in
torque.
50%.
1 Maximum
test speed is defined in 40 CFR part 1065. Percent speed is relative to maximum test speed.
percent power is relative to the maximum test power.
from one mode to the next within a 20-second transition phase. During the transition phase, command a linear progression from the
torque setting of the current mode to the torque setting of the next mode, and simultaneously command a similar linear progression for engine
speed if there is a change in speed setting.
2 The
3 Advance
(b) The following duty cycles apply as
specified in § 1042.505(b)(2):
(1) The following duty cycle applies for
discrete-mode testing:
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1
2
3
4
5
..........................................................
..........................................................
..........................................................
..........................................................
..........................................................
1
Percent of
maximum
test power
Engine speed 1
E5 mode No.
Maximum test speed ......................................................................................
91% .................................................................................................................
80% .................................................................................................................
63% .................................................................................................................
Warm idle ........................................................................................................
Maximum test speed is defined in 40 CFR part 1065. Percent speed values are relative to maximum test speed.
(2) The following duty cycle applies for
ramped-modal testing:
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75
50
25
0
Weighting
factors
0.08
0.13
0.17
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Time in mode
(seconds)
RMC mode
Engine speed 1 3
Power (percent) 2 3
1a
1b
Steady-state ....................................................
Transition .........................................................
167
20
Warm idle ...............................................................
Linear transition ......................................................
2a
2b
Steady-state ....................................................
Transition .........................................................
85
20
Maximum test speed ..............................................
Linear transition ......................................................
3a
3b
Steady-state ....................................................
Transition .........................................................
354
20
63% ........................................................................
Linear transition ......................................................
4a
4b
Steady-state ....................................................
Transition .........................................................
141
20
91% ........................................................................
Linear transition ......................................................
5a
5b
Steady-state ....................................................
Transition .........................................................
182
20
80% ........................................................................
Linear transition ......................................................
6
Steady-state ......................................................
171
Warm idle ...............................................................
0%.
Linear transition
torque.
100%.
Linear transition
torque.
25%.
Linear transition
torque.
75%.
Linear transition
torque.
50%.
Linear transition
torque.
0%.
in
in
in
in
in
1 Maximum
test speed is defined in 40 CFR part 1065. Percent speed is relative to maximum test speed.
2 The percent power is relative to the maximum test power.
3 Advance from one mode to the next within a 20-second transition phase. During the transition phase, command a linear progression from the
torque setting of the current mode to the torque setting of the next mode, and simultaneously command a similar linear progression for engine
speed if there is a change in speed setting.
(c) The following duty cycles apply as
specified in § 1042.505(b)(3):
(1) The following duty cycle applies for
discrete-mode testing:
1
2
3
4
Torque
(percent) 2
Engine speed 1
E2 mode No.
..........................................................
..........................................................
..........................................................
..........................................................
Engine
Engine
Engine
Engine
Governed
Governed
Governed
Governed
............................................................................................
............................................................................................
............................................................................................
............................................................................................
Weighting
factors
100
75
50
25
0.2
0.5
0.15
0.15
1 Speed
2 The
terms are defined in 40 CFR part 1065.
percent torque is relative to the maximum test torque as defined in 40 CFR part 1065.
(2) The following duty cycle applies for
ramped-modal testing:
Time in mode
(seconds)
RMC mode
1a
1b
2a
2b
3a
3b
4a
Steady-state ....................................................
Transition .........................................................
Steady-state ....................................................
Transition .........................................................
Steady-state ....................................................
Transition .........................................................
Steady-state ....................................................
229
20
166
20
570
20
175
Torque
(percent) 1 2
Engine speed
Engine
Engine
Engine
Engine
Engine
Engine
Engine
Governed
Governed
Governed
Governed
Governed
Governed
Governed
...................................................
...................................................
...................................................
...................................................
...................................................
...................................................
...................................................
100%.
Linear transition.
25%.
Linear transition.
75%.
Linear transition.
50%.
1 The
percent torque is relative to the maximum test torque as defined in 40 CFR part 1065.
from one mode to the next within a 20-second transition phase. During the transition phase, command a linear progression from the
torque setting of the current mode to the torque setting of the next mode.
2 Advance
204. Appendix III is revised to read as
follows:
■
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Appendix III to Part 1042—Not-ToExceed Zones
(a) The following definitions apply for this
Appendix III:
(1) Percent power means the percentage of
the maximum power achieved at Maximum
Test Speed (or at Maximum Test Torque for
constant-speed engines).
(2) Percent speed means the percentage of
Maximum Test Speed.
(b) Figure 1 of this Appendix illustrates the
default NTE zone for marine engines certified
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using the duty cycle specified in
§ 1042.505(b)(1), except for variable-speed
propulsion marine engines used with
controllable-pitch propellers or with
electrically coupled propellers, as follows:
(1) Subzone 1 is defined by the following
boundaries:
(i) Percent power ÷ 100 ≥ 0.7 · (percent
speed ÷ 100)2.5.
(ii) Percent power ÷ 100 ≤ (percent speed
÷ 90)3.5.
(iii) Percent power ÷ 100 ≥ 3.0 · (1 ¥
percent speed ÷ 100).
(2) Subzone 2 is defined by the following
boundaries:
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(i) Percent power ÷ 100 ≥ 0.7 · (percent
speed ÷ 100)2.5.
(ii) Percent power ÷ 100 ≤ (percent speed
÷ 90)3.5.
(iii) Percent power ÷ 100 < 3.0 · (1 ¥
percent speed ÷ 100).
(iv) Percent speed ÷ 100 ≥ 0.7.
(3) Note that the line separating Subzone
1 and Subzone 2 includes the following
endpoints:
(i) Percent speed = 78.9 percent; Percent
power = 63.2 percent.
(ii) Percent speed = 84.6 percent; Percent
power = 46.1 percent.
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(c) Figure 2 of this Appendix illustrates the
default NTE zone for recreational marine
engines certified using the duty cycle
specified in § 1042.505(b)(2), except for
variable-speed marine engines used with
controllable-pitch propellers or with
electrically coupled propellers, as follows:
(1) Subzone 1 is defined by the following
boundaries:
(i) Percent power ÷ 100 ≥ 0.7 · (percent
speed ÷ 100)2.5.
(ii) Percent power ÷ 100 ≤ (percent speed
÷ 90)3.5.
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(iii) Percent power ÷ 100 ≥ 3.0 · (1 ¥
percent speed ÷ 100).
(iv) Percent power ≤ 95 percent.
(2) Subzone 2 is defined by the following
boundaries:
(i) Percent power ÷ 100 ≥ 0.7 · (percent
speed ÷ 100)2.5.
(ii) Percent power ÷ 100 ≤ (percent speed
÷ 90)3.5.
(iii) Percent power ÷ 100 < 3.0 · (1 ¥
percent speed ÷ 100).
(iv) Percent speed ≥ 70 percent.
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(3) Subzone 3 is defined by the following
boundaries:
(i) Percent power ÷ 100 ≤ (percent speed ÷
90)3.5.
(ii) Percent power > 95 percent.
(4) Note that the line separating Subzone
1 and Subzone 3 includes a point at Percent
speed = 88.7 percent and Percent power =
95.0 percent. See paragraph (b)(3) of this
appendix regarding the line separating
Subzone 1 and Subzone 2.
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(2) Subzone 2a is defined by the following
boundaries:
(i) Percent power ÷ 100 ≥ 0.7 • (percent
speed ÷ 100)2.5.
(ii) Percent speed ≥ 70 percent.
(iii) Percent speed < 78.9 percent, for
Percent power > 63.3 percent.
(iv) Percent power ÷ 100 < 3.0 · (1 ¥
percent speed ÷ 100), for Percent speed ≥
78.9 percent.
(3) Subzone 2b is defined by the following
boundaries:
(i) The line formed by connecting the
following two points on a plot of speed-vs.power:
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(A) Percent speed = 70 percent; Percent
power = 28.7 percent.
(B) Percent power = 40 percent; Speed =
governed speed.
(ii) Percent power ÷ 100 < 0.7 · (percent
speed ÷ 100)2.5.
(4) Note that the line separating Subzone
1 and Subzone 2a includes the following
endpoints:
(i) Percent speed = 78.9 percent; Percent
power = 63.3 percent.
(ii) Percent speed = 84.6 percent; Percent
power = 46.1 percent.
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(d) Figure 3 of this Appendix illustrates the
default NTE zone for variable-speed marine
engines used with controllable-pitch
propellers or with electrically coupled
propellers that are certified using the duty
cycle specified in § 1042.505(b)(1), (2), or (3),
as follows:
(1) Subzone 1 is defined by the following
boundaries:
(i) Percent power ÷ 100 ≥ 0.7 · (percent
speed ÷ 100)2.5.
(ii) Percent power ÷ 100 ≥ 3.0 · (1 ¥
percent speed ÷ 100).
(iii) Percent speed ≥ 78.9 percent.
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(2) Subzone 2 is defined by the following
boundaries:
(i) Percent power < 70 percent.
(ii) Percent power ≥ 40 percent.
EP13JY15.092
(1) Subzone 1 is defined by the following
boundaries:
(i) Percent power ≥ 70 percent.
(ii) [Reserved]
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(e) Figure 4 of this Appendix illustrates the
default NTE zone for constant-speed engines
certified using a duty cycle specified in
§ 1042.505(b)(3) or (b)(4), as follows:
Federal Register / Vol. 80, No. 133 / Monday, July 13, 2015 / Proposed Rules
(1) The default NTE zone is defined by the
boundaries specified in 40 CFR 86.1370(b)(1),
(2), and (4).
(2) A special PM subzone is defined in 40
CFR 1039.515(b).
PART 1043—CONTROL OF NOX, SOX,
AND PM EMISSIONS FROM MARINE
ENGINES AND VESSELS SUBJECT TO
THE MARPOL PROTOCOL
CFR part 51. To enforce any edition
other than that specified in this section,
the Environmental Protection Agency
must publish a notice of the change in
the Federal Register and the material
must be available to the public. All
approved material is available for
inspection at U.S. EPA, Air and
Radiation Docket and Information
Center, 1301 Constitution Ave. NW.,
Room B102, EPA West Building,
Washington, DC 20460, (202) 202–1744,
and is available from the sources listed
below. It is also available for inspection
at the National Archives and Records
Administration (NARA). For
information on the availability of this
material at NARA, call 202–741–6030,
or go to: https://www.archives.gov/
federal_register/code_of_federal_
regulations/ibr_locations.html.
(b) The International Maritime
Organization, 4 Albert Embankment,
London SE1 7SR, United Kingdom, or
www.imo.org, or 44–(0)20–7735–7611.
(1) MARPOL Annex VI, Regulations
for the Prevention of Air Pollution from
Ships, Third Edition, 2013, and NOX
Technical Code 2008.
205. The authority citation for part
1043 continues to read as follows:
■
Authority: 33 U.S.C. 1901–1912.
206. Section 1043.60 is amended by
revising paragraph (a) introductory text
to read as follows:
■
§ 1043.60 Operating requirements for
engines and vessels subject to this part.
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*
*
*
*
*
(a) Except as specified otherwise in
this part, NOX emission limits apply to
all engines with power output of more
than 130 kW that will be installed on
vessels subject to this part as specified
in the following table:
*
*
*
*
*
■ 207. Section 1043.100 is revised to
read as follows:
§ 1043.100
Incorporation by reference.
(a) Certain material is incorporated by
reference into this part with the
approval of the Director of the Federal
Register under 5 U.S.C. 552(a) and 1
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(i) Revised MARPOL Annex VI,
Regulations for the Prevention of
Pollution from Ships, Third Edition,
2013 (‘‘2008 Annex VI’’); IBR approved
for §§ 1043.1 introductory text, 1043.20,
1043.30(f), 1043.60(c), and 1043.70(a).
(ii) NOX Technical Code 2008,
Technical Code on Control of Emission
of Nitrogen Oxides from Marine Diesel
Engines, 2013 Edition, (‘‘NOX Technical
Code’’); IBR approved for §§ 1043.20,
1043.41(b) and (h), and 1043.70(a).
(iii) Annex 12, Resolution
MEPC.251(66) from the Report of the
Marine Environment Protection
Committee on its Sixty-Sixth Sesson,
April 25, 2014. This document describes
new and revised provisions that are
considered to be part of Annex VI and
NOX Technical Code 2008 as referenced
in paragraphs (a)(1)(i) and (ii) of this
section. IBR approved for §§ 1043.1
introductory text, 1043.20, 1043.30(f),
1043.41(b) and (h), 1043.60(c), and
1043.70(a).
(2) [Reserved]
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(f) Figure 5 of this Appendix illustrates the
default NTE zone for variable-speed auxiliary
marine engines certified using the duty cycle
specified in § 1042.505(b)(5)(ii) or (iii), as
follows:
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PART 1065—ENGINE-TESTING
PROCEDURES
208. The authority citation for part
1065 continues to read as follows:
■
Authority: 42 U.S.C. 7401–7671q.
Subpart A—Applicability and General
Provisions
209. Section 1065.15 is amended by
revising paragraphs (a)(2)(ii) and (iv) to
read as follows:
■
§ 1065.15 Overview of procedures for
laboratory and field testing.
*
*
*
*
*
(a) * * *
(2) * * *
(ii) Nonmethane hydrocarbon, NMHC,
which results from subtracting methane,
CH4, from THC. You may choose to
measure NMOG emissions to
demonstrate compliance with NMHC
standards.
*
*
*
*
*
(iv) Nonmethane hydrocarbonequivalent, NMHCE, which results from
adjusting NMHC mathematically to be
equivalent on a carbon-mass basis. You
may choose to measure NMOG
emissions to demonstrate compliance
with NMHCE standards.
*
*
*
*
*
Subpart F—Performing an Emission
Test in the Laboratory
210. Section 1065.510 is amended by
revising paragraphs (c) introductory text
and (d)(5)(iii) to read as follows:
■
§ 1065.510
Engine mapping.
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*
*
*
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*
(c) Negative torque mapping. If your
engine is subject to a reference duty
cycle that specifies negative torque
values (i.e., engine motoring), generate a
motoring torque curve by any of the
following procedures:
*
*
*
*
*
(d) * * *
(5) * * *
(iii) For any isochronous governed
(0% speed droop) constant-speed
engine, you may map the engine with
two points as described in this
paragraph (d)(5)(iii). After stabilizing at
the no-load governed speed in
paragraph (d)(4) of this section, record
the mean feedback speed and torque.
Continue to operate the engine with the
governor or simulated governor
controlling engine speed using operator
demand, and control the dynamometer
to target a speed of 99.5% of the
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recorded mean no-load governed speed.
Allow speed and torque to stabilize.
Record the mean feedback speed and
torque. Record the target speed. The
absolute value of the speed error (the
mean feedback speed minus the target
speed) must be no greater than 0.1% of
the recorded mean no-load governed
speed. From this series of two mean
feedback speed and torque values, use
linear interpolation to determine
intermediate values. Use this series of
two mean feedback speeds and torques
to generate a power map as described in
paragraph (e) of this section. Note that
the measured maximum test torque as
determined in § 1065.610 (b)(1) will be
the mean feedback torque recorded on
the second point.
*
*
*
*
*
Subpart G—Calculations and Data
Requirements
211. Section 1065.610 is amended by
revising paragraphs (a)(1)(ii), (a)(1)(iii),
(a)(1)(vi), (b), and (c)(1) and (2) to read
as follows:
■
§ 1065.610
Duty cycle generation.
*
*
*
*
*
(a) * * *
(1) * * *
(ii) Determine the lowest and highest
engine speeds corresponding to 98% of
Pmax, using linear interpolation, and no
extrapolation, as appropriate.
(iii) Determine the engine speed
corresponding to maximum power,
fnPmax, by calculating the average of the
two speed values from paragraph
(a)(1)(ii) of this section. If there is only
one speed where power is equal to 98%
of Pmax, take fnPmax as the speed at which
Pmax occurs.
*
*
*
*
*
(vi) Determine the lowest and highest
engine speeds corresponding to the
value calculated in paragraph (a)(1)(v) of
this section, using linear interpolation
as appropriate. Calculate fntest as the
average of these two speed values. If
there is only one speed corresponding to
the value calculated in paragraph
(a)(1)(v) of this section, take fntest as the
speed where the maximum of the sum
of the squares occurs.
*
*
*
*
*
(b) Maximum test torque, Ttest. For
constant-speed engines, determine the
measured Ttest from the torque and
power-versus-speed maps, generated
according to § 1065.510, as follows:
(1) For constant speed engines
mapped using the methods in
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§ 1065.510(d)(5)(i) or (ii), determine Ttest
as follows:
(i) Determine maximum power, Pmax,
from the engine map generated
according to § 1065.510 and calculate
the value for power equal to 98% of
Pmax.
(ii) Determine the lowest and highest
engine speeds corresponding to 98% of
Pmax, using linear interpolation, and no
extrapolation, as appropriate.
(iii) Determine the engine speed
corresponding to maximum power,
fnPmax, by calculating the average of the
two speed values from paragraph
(a)(1)(ii) of this section. If there is only
one speed where power is equal to 98%
of Pmax, take fnPmax as the speed at which
Pmax occurs.
(iv) Transform the map into a
normalized power-versus-speed map by
dividing power terms by Pmax and
dividing speed terms by fnPmax. Use the
Equation 1065.610–1 to calculate a
quantity representing the sum of squares
from the normalized map.
(v) Determine the maximum value for
the sum of the squares from the map
and multiply that value by 0.98.
(vi) Determine the lowest and highest
engine speeds corresponding to the
value calculated in paragraph (a)(1)(v) of
this section, using linear interpolation
as appropriate. Calculate fntest as the
average of these two speed values. If
there is only one speed corresponding to
the value calculated in paragraph
(a)(1)(v) of this section, take fntest as the
speed where the maximum of the sum
of the squares occurs.
(vii) The measured Ttest is the mapped
torque at fntest.
(2) For constant-speed engines using
the two-point mapping method in
§ 1065.510(d)(5)(iii), you may follow
paragraph (a)(1) of this section to
determine the measured Ttest, or you
may use the measured torque of the
second point as the measured Ttest
directly.
(3) Transform normalized torques to
reference torques according to
paragraph (d) of this section by using
the measured maximum test torque
determined according to paragraph
(b)(1) of this section—or use your
declared maximum test torque, as
allowed in § 1065.510.
(c) * * *
(1) % speed. If your normalized duty
cycle specifies % speed values, use your
warm idle speed and your maximum
test speed to transform the duty cycle,
as follows:
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Federal Register / Vol. 80, No. 133 / Monday, July 13, 2015 / Proposed Rules
Example:
% speed = 85%
fntest = 2364 r/min
fnidle = 650 r/min
fnref = 85% · (2364 ¥ 650) + 650
fnref = 2107 r/min
Example:
nlo = 1005 r/min
nhi = 2385 r/min
fnrefA = 0.25 · (2385 ¥ 1005) + 1005
fnrefB = 0.50 · (2385 ¥ 1005) + 1005
fnrefC = 0.75 · (2385 ¥ 1005) + 1005
fnrefA = 1350 r/min
fnrefB = 1695 r/min
lowest speed below maximum power at
which 50% of maximum power occurs.
Denote this value as nlo. Take nlo to be
warm idle speed if all power points at
speeds below the maximum power
speed are higher than 50% of maximum
power. Also determine the highest
speed above maximum power at which
70% of maximum power occurs. Denote
this value as nhi. If all power points at
speeds above the maximum power
speed are higher than 70% of maximum
power, take nhi to be the declared
maximum safe engine speed or the
declared maximum representative
engine speed, whichever is lower. Use
nhi and nlo to calculate reference values
for A, B, or C speeds as follows:
fnrefC = 2040 r/min
(2) A, B, and C speeds. If your
normalized duty cycle specifies speeds
as A, B, or C values, use your powerversus-speed curve to determine the
(d) * * *
(1) You may calculate wC as described
in this paragraph (d)(1) based on
measured fuel properties. To do so, you
must determine values for a and b in all
cases, but you may set g and d to zero
if the default value listed in Table 1 of
this section is zero. Calculate wC using
the following equation:
*
*
*
*
*
■ 212. Section 1065.655 is amended by
revising paragraph (d)(1) to read as
follows:
§ 1065.655 Chemical balances of fuel,
intake air, and exhaust.
*
*
*
*
*
g = atomic sulfur-to-carbon ratio of the
mixture of fuel(s) being combusted.
MS = molar mass of sulfur.
d = atomic nitrogen-to-carbon ratio of the
mixture of fuel(s) being combusted.
MN = molar mass of nitrogen.
Example:
a = 1.8
b = 0.05
g = 0.0003
d = 0.0001
MC = 12.0107
MH = 1.00794
MO = 15.9994
MS = 32.065
MN = 14.0067
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EP13JY15.094
EP13JY15.095
EP13JY15.097
Where:
wC= carbon mass fraction of fuel.
MC = molar mass of carbon.
a = atomic hydrogen-to-carbon ratio of the
mixture of fuel(s) being combusted.
MH = molar mass of hydrogen.
b = atomic oxygen-to-carbon ratio of the
mixture of fuel(s) being combusted.
MO = molar mass of oxygen.
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■ 213. Section 1065.680 is added to read
as follows:
§ 1065.680 Adjusting emission levels to
account for infrequently regenerating
aftertreatment devices.
ebenthall on DSK3VPTVN1PROD with MISCELLANEOUS
This section describes how to
calculate and apply emission
adjustment factors for engines using
aftertreatment technology with
infrequent regeneration events that may
occur during testing. These adjustment
factors are typically calculated based on
measurements conducted for the
purposes of engine certification, and
then used to adjust the results of testing
related to demonstrating compliance
Where:
EFA[cycle] = the average emission factor over
the test segment as determined in
paragraph (a)(4) of this section.
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with emission standards. For this
section, ‘‘regeneration’’ means an
intended event during which emission
levels change while the system restores
aftertreatment performance. For
example, exhaust gas temperatures may
increase temporarily to remove sulfur
from adsorbers or to oxidize
accumulated particulate matter in a
trap. Also, ‘‘infrequent’’ refers to
regeneration events that are expected to
occur on average less than once over a
transient or ramped-modal duty cycle,
or on average less than once per mode
in a discrete-mode test.
(a) Adjustment factors. Apply
adjustment factors based on whether
there is active regeneration during a test
segment. The test segment may be a test
interval or a full duty cycle, as
described in paragraph (b) of this
section. For engines subject to standards
over more than one duty cycle, you
must develop adjustment factors under
this section for each separate duty cycle.
You must be able to identify active
regeneration in a way that is readily
apparent during all testing. All
adjustment factors for regeneration are
additive.
(1) If active regeneration does not
occur during a test segment, apply an
upward adjustment factor, UAF, that
will be added to the measured emission
rate for that test segment. Use the
following equation to calculate UAF:
EFL[cycle] = measured emissions over a
complete test segment in which active
regeneration does not occur.
UAFRMC = 0.15¥0.11 = 0.04 g/kW·hr
(2) If active regeneration occurs or starts to
occur during a test segment, apply a
downward adjustment factor, DAF, that will
be subtracted from the measured emission
rate for that test segment. Use the following
equation to calculate DAF:
Example:
EFARMC = 0.15 g/kW·hr
EFLRMC = 0.11 g/kW·hr
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EP13JY15.099
wC= 0.8206
EP13JY15.098
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Federal Register / Vol. 80, No. 133 / Monday, July 13, 2015 / Proposed Rules
(6) Use good engineering judgment to
determine ir and if, as follows:
(i) For engines that are programmed to
regenerate after a specific time interval,
you may determine the duration of a
regeneration event and the time between
regeneration events based on the
engine’s design parameters. For other
engines, determine these values based
on measurements from in-use operation
or from running repetitive duty cycles
in a laboratory.
(ii) For engines subject to standards
over multiple duty cycles, such as for
transient and steady-state testing, apply
this same calculation to determine a
value of F for each duty cycle.
(iii) Consider an example for an
engine that is designed to regenerate its
PM filter 500 minutes after the end of
the last regeneration event, with the
regeneration event lasting 30 minutes. If
the RMC takes 28 minutes, irRMC = 2 (30
÷ 28 = 1.07, which rounds up to 2), and
ifRMC = 500 ÷ 28 = 17.86.
(b) Develop adjustment factors for
different types of testing as follows:
(1) Discrete-mode testing. Develop
separate adjustment factors for each test
mode (test interval) of a discrete-mode
test. When measuring EFH, if a
regeneration event has started but is not
complete when you reach the end of the
sampling time for a test interval, extend
the sampling period for that test interval
until the regeneration event is complete.
(2) Ramped-modal and transient
testing. Develop a separate set of
adjustment factors for an entire rampedmodal cycle or transient duty cycle.
When measuring EFH, if a regeneration
event has started but is not complete
when you reach the end of the dutycycle, start the next repeat test as soon
as possible, allowing for the time
needed to complete emission
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to the start of the next active
regeneration, without rounding.
Example:
measurement and installation of new
filters for PM measurement; in that case
EFH is the average emission level for the
test segments that included
regeneration.
(3) Accounting for cold-start
measurements. For engines subject to
cold-start testing requirements,
incorporate cold-start operation into
your analysis as follows:
(i) Determine the frequency of
regeneration, F, in a way that
incorporates the impact of cold-start
operation in proportion to the cold-start
weighting factor specified in the
standard-setting part. You may use good
engineering judgment to determine the
effect of cold-start operation
analytically.
(ii) Treat cold-start testing and hotstart testing together as a single test
segment for adjusting measured
emission results under this section.
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13JYP2
EP13JY15.103
regeneration, rounded up to the next
whole number.
if[cycle] = the number of test segments from the
end of one complete regeneration event
EP13JY15.102
Where:
ir[cycle] = the number of successive test
segments required to complete an active
(5) The frequency of regeneration, F,
generally characterizes how often a
regeneration event occurs within a
series of test segments. Determine F
using the following equation, subject to
the provisions of paragraph (a)(6) of this
section:
EP13JY15.101
Example:
FRMC = 0.10
EFARMC = 0.10 · 0.50 + (1.00 ¥ 0.10) · 0.11
= 0.15 g/kW·hr
(3) Note that emissions for a given
pollutant may be lower during
regeneration, in which case EFL would
be greater than EFH, and both UAF and
DAF would be negative.
(4) Calculate the average emission
factor, EFA, as follows:
EP13JY15.100
Example:
EFARMC = 0.15 g/kW·hr
EFHRMC = 0.50 g/kW·hr
DAFRMC = 0.50¥0.15 = 0.35 g/kW·hr
Where:
F[cycle] = the frequency of the regeneration
event during the test segment, expressed
in terms of the fraction of equivalent test
segments during which active
regeneration occurs, as described in
paragraph (a)(5) of this section.
ebenthall on DSK3VPTVN1PROD with MISCELLANEOUS
Where:
EFH[cycle] = measured emissions over the test
segment from a complete regeneration
event, or the average emission rate over
multiple complete test segments with
regeneration if the complete regeneration
event lasts longer than one test segment.
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Apply the adjustment factor to the
composite emission result.
(iii) You may apply the adjustment
factor only to the hot-start test result if
your aftertreatment technology does not
regenerate during cold operation as
represented by the cold-start transient
duty cycle. If we ask for it, you must
demonstrate this by engineering
analysis or by test data.
(c) If an engine has multiple
regeneration strategies, determine and
apply adjustment factors under this
section separately for each type of
regeneration.
■ 214. Section 1065.1005 is amended by
revising paragraph (f)(2) to read as
follows:
§ 1065.1005 Symbols, abbreviations,
acronyms, and units of measure.
*
*
*
*
*
(f) * * *
(2) This part uses the following molar
masses or effective molar masses of
chemical species:
10g¥3·kg·mol ¥1
Symbol
Quantity
Mair .................................
MAr .................................
MC ..................................
MCH3OH ..........................
MC2H5OH .........................
MC2H4O ...........................
MCH4N2O .........................
MC3H8 .............................
MC3H7OH .........................
MCO ................................
MCH4 ..............................
MCO2 ..............................
MH ..................................
MH2 ................................
MH2O ..............................
MCH2O ............................
MHe ................................
MN ..................................
MN2 ................................
MNH3 ..............................
MNMHC ...........................
MNMHCE .........................
MNOX ..............................
MN2O ..............................
MO ..................................
MO2 ................................
MS ..................................
MTHC ..............................
MTHCE ............................
molar mass of dry air 1 ..........................................................................................................................
molar mass of argon .............................................................................................................................
molar mass of carbon ...........................................................................................................................
molar mass of methanol ........................................................................................................................
molar mass of ethanol ...........................................................................................................................
molar mass of acetaldehyde .................................................................................................................
molar mass of urea ...............................................................................................................................
molar mass of propane .........................................................................................................................
molar mass of propanol ........................................................................................................................
molar mass of carbon monoxide ...........................................................................................................
molar mass of methane ........................................................................................................................
molar mass of carbon dioxide ...............................................................................................................
molar mass of atomic hydrogen ............................................................................................................
molar mass of molecular hydrogen .......................................................................................................
molar mass of water ..............................................................................................................................
molar mass of formaldehyde .................................................................................................................
molar mass of helium ............................................................................................................................
molar mass of atomic nitrogen ..............................................................................................................
molar mass of molecular nitrogen .........................................................................................................
molar mass of ammonia ........................................................................................................................
effective C1 molar mass of nonmethane hydrocarbon 2 .......................................................................
effective C1 molar mass of nonmethane hydrocarbon equivalent 2 ......................................................
effective molar mass of oxides of nitrogen 3 .........................................................................................
molar mass of nitrous oxide ..................................................................................................................
molar mass of atomic oxygen ...............................................................................................................
molar mass of molecular oxygen ..........................................................................................................
molar mass of sulfur ..............................................................................................................................
effective C1 molar mass of total hydrocarbon 2 ....................................................................................
effective C1 molar mass of total hydrocarbon equivalent 2 ...................................................................
28.96559
39.948
12.0107
32.04186
46.06844
44.05256
60.05526
44.09562
60.09502
28.0101
16.0425
44.0095
1.00794
2.01588
18.01528
30.02598
4.002602
14.0067
28.0134
17.03052
13.875389
13.875389
46.0055
44.0128
15.9994
31.9988
32.065
13.875389
13.875389
1 See
paragraph (f)(1) of this section for the composition of dry air.
effective molar masses of THC, THCE, NMHC, and NMHCE are defined on a C1 basis and are based on an atomic hydrogen-to-carbon
ratio, α, of 1.85 (with β, γ, and δ equal to zero).
3 The effective molar mass of NO is defined by the molar mass of nitrogen dioxide, NO
X
2.
2 The
*
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Authority: 42 U.S.C. 7401–7671q.
*
216. Section 1066.210 is amended by
revising paragraph (d)(3) to read as
follows:
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Where:
FR = total road-load force to be applied at the
surface of the roll. The total force is the
sum of the individual tractive forces
applied at each roll surface.
i = a counter to indicate a point in time over
the driving schedule. For a dynamometer
operating at 10-Hz intervals over a 600second driving schedule, the maximum
value of i should be 6,000.
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*
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*
(d) * * *
(3) The load applied by the
dynamometer simulates forces acting on
the vehicle during normal driving
according to the following equation:
A = a vehicle-specific constant value
representing the vehicle’s frictional load
in lbf or newtons. See subpart D of this
part.
Gi = instantaneous road grade, in percent
(increase in elevation per 100 units
horizontal length).
B = a vehicle-specific coefficient representing
load from drag and rolling resistance,
which are a function of vehicle speed, in
lbf/mph or N·s/m. See subpart D of this
part.
v = instantaneous linear speed at the roll
surfaces as measured by the
dynamometer, in mph or m/s. Let vi-1 =
0 for i = 0.
C = a vehicle-specific coefficient representing
aerodynamic effects, which are a
function of vehicle speed squared, in lbf/
mph2 or N·s2/m2. See subpart D of this
part.
■
215. The authority citation for part
1066 continues to read as follows:
■
06:45 Jul 11, 2015
Dynamometers.
*
Subpart C—Dynamometer
Specifications
PART 1066—VEHICLE-TESTING
PROCEDURES
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Me = the vehicle’s effective mass in lbm or
kg, including the effect of rotating axles
as specified in § 1066.310(b)(7).
t = elapsed time in the driving schedule as
measured by the dynamometer, in
seconds. Let ti¥1 = 0 for i = 0.
M = the measured vehicle mass, in lbm or kg.
ag = acceleration of Earth’s gravity, as
described in 40 CFR 1065.630.
*
*
Subpart D—Coastdown
217. Section 1066.301 is amended by
adding introductory text to read as
follows:
■
§ 1066.301 Overview of road-load
determination procedures.
Vehicle testing on a chassis
dynamometer involves simulating the
Where:
M = the measured vehicle mass, expressed to
at least the nearest 0.1 kg.
ag = acceleration of Earth’s gravity, as
described in 40 CFR 1065.630.
Dh = change in elevation over the
measurement interval, in m. Assume Dh
= 0 if you are not correcting for grade.
Ds = distance the vehicle travels down the
road during the measurement interval, in
m.
Am = the calculated value of the y-intercept
based on the curve-fit.
*
*
*
*
Subpart E—Preparing Vehicles and
Running an Exhaust Emission Test
219. Section 1066.410 is amended by
revising paragraph (h) introductory text
to read as follows:
■
§ 1066.410
Dynamometer test procedure.
*
*
*
*
*
(h) Determine equivalent test weight as
follows:
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
(b) * * *
(7) * * *
(ii) * * *
(B) Calculate the vehicle’s effective
mass, Me, in kg by adding 56.7 kg to the
measured vehicle mass, M, for each tire
making road contact. This accounts for
the rotational inertia of the wheels and
tires.
*
*
*
*
*
(D) Plot the data from all the
coastdown runs on a single plot of Fi vs.
vi2 to determine the slope correlation, D,
based on the following equation:
Subpart G—Calculations
220. Section 1066.605 is amended by
redesignating paragraphs (d) through (g)
as paragraphs (e) through (h),
respectively and adding a new
paragraph (d) to read as follows:
■
§ 1066.605 Mass-based and molar-based
exhaust emission calculations.
*
*
*
*
*
(d) Calculate g/mile emission rates
using the following equation unless
specified otherwise in the standardsetting part:
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Where:
e[emission] = emission rate over the test
interval.
m[emission] = emission mass over the test
interval.
*
Subpart H—Cold Temperature Test
Procedures
§ 1066.710 Cold temperature testing
procedures for measuring CO and NMHC
emissions and determining fuel economy.
221. Section 1066.710 is amended by
revising paragraphs (a)(5) and (d)(3)
introductory text to read as follows:
*
*
*
*
*
Example:
■
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D = the measured driving distance over the
test interval.
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*
*
(a) * * *
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EP13JY15.107
*
*
EP13JY15.106
*
§ 1066.310 Coastdown procedures for
vehicles above 14,000 pounds GVWR.
EP13JY15.105
*
road-load force, which is the sum of
forces acting on a vehicle from
aerodynamic drag, tire rolling
resistance, driveline losses, and other
effects of friction. Determine
dynamometer settings to simulate roadload force in two stages. First, perform
a road-load force specification by
characterizing on-road operation.
Second, perform a road-load derivation
to determine the appropriate
dynamometer load settings to simulate
the road-load force specification from
the on-road test.
*
*
*
*
*
■ 218. Section 1066.310 is amended by
revising paragraphs (b)(7)(ii)(B) and (D)
to read as follows:
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(5) Adjust the dynamometer to
simulate vehicle operation on the road
at ¥7 °C as described in
§ 1066.305(b)(2).
*
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*
*
*
(d) * * *
(3) You may start the preconditioning
drive once the fuel in the fuel tank
reaches (–12.6 to –1.4) °C. Precondition
the vehicle as follows:
*
*
*
*
*
Subpart I—Exhaust Emission Test
Procedures for Motor Vehicles
222. Section 1066.815 is amended by
revising paragraph (b) introductory text
to read as follows:
■
§ 1066.815 Exhaust emission test
procedures for FTP testing.
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*
(b) PM sampling options. Collect PM
using any of the procedures specified in
paragraphs (b)(1) through (5) of this
section and use the corresponding
equation in § 1066.820 to calculate FTP
composite emissions. Testing must meet
the requirements related to filter face
velocity as described in 40 CFR
1065.170(c)(1)(vi), except as specified in
paragraphs (b)(4) and (5) of this section.
For procedures involving flow
weighting, set the filter face velocity to
a weighting target of 1.0 to meet the
requirements of 40 CFR
1065.170(c)(1)(vi). Allow filter face
velocity to decrease as a percentage of
the weighting factor if the weighting
factor is less than 1.0. Use the
appropriate equations in § 1066.610 to
show that you meet the dilution factor
requirements of § 1066.110(b)(2)(iii)(B).
If you collect PM using the procedures
specified in paragraph (b)(4) or (b)(5) of
this section, the residence time
requirements in 40 CFR 1065.140(e)(3)
apply, except that you may exceed an
overall residence time of 5.5 s for
sample flow rates below the highest
expected sample flow rate.
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PART 1068—GENERAL COMPLIANCE
PROVISIONS FOR HIGHWAY,
STATIONARY, AND NONROAD
PROGRAMS
223. The authority citation for part
1068 continues to read as follows:
■
Authority: 42 U.S.C. 7401–7671q.
Subpart A—Applicability and
Miscellaneous Provisions
224. Section 1068.1 is revised to read
as follows:
■
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§ 1068.1
Does this part apply to me?
(a) The provisions of this part apply
to everyone with respect to the engine
and equipment categories as described
in this paragraph (a). They apply to
everyone, including owners, operators,
parts manufacturers, and persons
performing maintenance. Where we
identify an engine category, the
provisions of this part also apply with
respect to the equipment using such
engines. This part 1068 applies to
different engine and equipment
categories as follows:
(1) This part 1068 applies to motor
vehicles we regulate under 40 CFR part
86, subpart S, to the extent and in the
manner specified in 40 CFR parts 85
and 86.
(2) This part 1068 applies for heavyduty motor vehicles certified under 40
CFR part 1037, subject to the provisions
of 40 CFR parts 85 and 1037. This part
1068 applies to other heavy-duty motor
vehicles and motor vehicle engines to
the extent and in the manner specified
in 40 CFR parts 85, 86, and 1036.
(3) This part 1068 applies to highway
motorcycles we regulate under 40 CFR
part 86, subparts E and F, to the extent
and in the manner specified in 40 CFR
parts 85 and 86.
(4) This part 1068 applies to aircraft
we regulate under 40 CFR part 87 to the
extent and in the manner specified in 40
CFR part 87.
(5) This part 1068 applies for
locomotives that are subject to the
provisions of 40 CFR part 1033. This
part 1068 does not apply for
locomotives or locomotive engines that
were originally manufactured before
July 7, 2008, and that have not been
remanufactured on or after July 7, 2008.
(6) This part 1068 applies for landbased nonroad compression-ignition
engines that are subject to the
provisions of 40 CFR part 1039. This
part 1068 does not apply for engines
certified under 40 CFR part 89.
(7) This part 1068 applies for
stationary compression-ignition engines
certified using the provisions of 40 CFR
parts 89, 94, 1039, and 1042 as
described in 40 CFR part 60, subpart IIII.
(8) This part 1068 applies for marine
compression-ignition engines that are
subject to the provisions of 40 CFR part
1042. This part 1068 does not apply for
marine compression-ignition engines
certified under 40 CFR part 94.
(9) This part 1068 applies for marine
spark-ignition engines that are subject to
the provisions of 40 CFR part 1045. This
part 1068 does not apply for marine
spark-ignition engines certified under
40 CFR part 91.
(10) This part 1068 applies for large
nonroad spark-ignition engines that are
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subject to the provisions of 40 CFR part
1048.
(11) This part 1068 applies for
stationary spark-ignition engines
certified using the provisions of 40 CFR
part 1048 or part 1054, as described in
40 CFR part 60, subpart JJJJ.
(12) This part 1068 applies for
recreational engines and vehicles,
including snowmobiles, off-highway
motorcycles, and all-terrain vehicles
that are subject to the provisions of 40
CFR part 1051.
(13) This part applies for small
nonroad spark-ignition engines that are
subject to the provisions of 40 CFR part
1054. This part 1068 does not apply for
nonroad spark-ignition engines certified
under 40 CFR part 90.
(14) This part applies for fuel-system
components installed in nonroad
equipment powered by volatile liquid
fuels that are subject to the provisions
of 40 CFR part 1060.
(b) [Reserved]
(c) Paragraph (a) of this section
identifies the parts of the CFR that
define emission standards and other
requirements for particular types of
engines and equipment. This part 1068
refers to each of these other parts
generically as the ‘‘standard-setting
part.’’ For example, 40 CFR part 1051 is
always the standard-setting part for
snowmobiles. Follow the provisions of
the standard-setting part if they are
different than any of the provisions in
this part.
(d) Specific provisions in this part
1068 start to apply separate from the
schedule for certifying engines/
equipment to new emission standards,
as follows:
(1) The provisions of §§ 1068.30 and
1068.310 apply for stationary sparkignition engines built on or after January
1, 2004, and for stationary compressionignition engines built on or after January
1, 2006.
(2) The provisions of §§ 1068.30 and
1068.235 apply for the types of engines/
equipment listed in paragraph (a) of this
section beginning January 1, 2004, if
they are used solely for competition.
(3) The standard-setting part may
specify how the provisions of this part
1068 apply for uncertified engines/
equipment.
■ 225. Section 1068.10 is amended by
revising the section heading to read as
follows:
§ 1068.10
Confidential information.
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■ 226. Section 1068.15 is amended by
revising the section heading and
paragraph (a) to read as follows:
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§ 1068.15 General provisions for EPA
decision-making.
(a) Not all EPA employees may
represent the Agency with respect to
EPA decisions under this part or the
standard-setting part. Only the
Administrator of the Environmental
Protection Agency or an official to
whom the Administrator has delegated
specific authority may represent the
Agency. For more information, ask for a
copy of the relevant sections of the EPA
Delegations Manual from the Designated
Compliance Officer.
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§ 1068.20—[Amended]
227. Section 1068.20 is amended by
removing paragraphs (b) and (c) and
redesignating paragraphs (d) through (f)
as paragraphs (b) through (d),
respectively.
■ 228. Section 1068.27 is revised to read
as follows:
■
§ 1068.27 May EPA conduct testing with
my engines/equipment?
(a) As described in the standardsetting part, we may perform testing on
your engines/equipment before we issue
a certificate of conformity. This is
generally known as confirmatory
testing.
(b) If we request it, you must make a
reasonable number of production-line
engines or pieces of production-line
equipment available for a reasonable
time so we can test or inspect them for
compliance with the requirements of
this chapter.
(c) If your emission-data engine/
equipment or production engine/
equipment requires special components
for proper testing, you must promptly
provide any such components to us if
we ask for them.
■ 229. Section 1068.30 is revised to read
as follows:
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§ 1068.30
Definitions.
The following definitions apply to
this part. The definitions apply to all
subparts unless we note otherwise. All
undefined terms have the meaning the
Clean Air Act gives to them. The
definitions follow:
Affiliated companies or affiliates
means one of the following:
(1) For determinations related to small
manufacturer allowances or other small
business provisions, these terms mean
all entities considered to be affiliates
with your entity under the Small
Business Administration’s regulations
in 13 CFR 121.103.
(2) For all other provisions, these
terms mean all of the following:
(i) Parent companies (as defined in
this section).
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(ii) Subsidiaries (as defined in this
section).
(iii) Subsidiaries of your parent
company.
Aftertreatment means relating to a
catalytic converter, particulate filter, or
any other system, component, or
technology mounted downstream of the
exhaust valve (or exhaust port) whose
design function is to reduce emissions
in the engine exhaust before it is
exhausted to the environment. Exhaustgas recirculation (EGR) is not
aftertreatment.
Aircraft means any vehicle capable of
sustained air travel more than 100 feet
above the ground.
Certificate holder means a
manufacturer (including importers) with
a valid certificate of conformity for at
least one family in a given model year,
or the preceding model year. Note that
only manufacturers may hold
certificates. Your applying for or
accepting a certificate is deemed to be
your agreement that you are a
manufacturer.
Clean Air Act means the Clean Air
Act, as amended, 42 U.S.C. 7401–7671q.
Date of manufacture means one of the
following:
(1) For engines, the date on which the
crankshaft is installed in an engine
block, with the following exceptions:
(i) For engines produced by secondary
engine manufacturers under § 1068.262,
date of manufacture means the date the
engine is received from the original
engine manufacturer. You may assign an
earlier date up to 30 days before you
received the engine, but not before the
crankshaft was installed. You may not
assign an earlier date if you cannot
demonstrate the date the crankshaft was
installed.
(ii) Manufacturers may assign a date
of manufacture at a point in the
assembly process later than the date
otherwise specified under this
definition. For example, a manufacturer
may use the build date printed on the
label or stamped on the engine as the
date of manufacture.
(2) For equipment, the date on which
the engine is installed, unless otherwise
specified in the standard-setting part.
Manufacturers may alternatively assign
a date of manufacture later in the
assembly process.
Days means calendar days, including
weekends and holidays.
Defeat device has the meaning given
in the standard-setting part.
Designated Compliance Officer means
one of the following:
(1) For motor vehicles regulated under
40 CFR part 86, subpart S: Director,
Light-Duty Vehicle Center, U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency, 2000
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Traverwood Drive, Ann Arbor, MI
48105; complianceinfo@epa.gov;
epa.gov/otaq/verify.
(2) For compression-ignition engines
used in heavy-duty highway vehicles
regulated under 40 CFR part 86, subpart
A, and 40 CFR parts 1036 and 1037, and
for nonroad and stationary compressionignition engines or equipment regulated
under 40 CFR parts 60, 1033, 1039, and
1042: Director, Diesel Engine
Compliance Center, U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency, 2000 Traverwood
Drive, Ann Arbor, MI 48105;
complianceinfo@epa.gov; epa.gov/otaq/
verify.
(3) Director, Gasoline Engine
Compliance Center, U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency, 2000 Traverwood
Drive, Ann Arbor, MI 48105; nonroadsi-cert@epa.gov; epa.gov/otaq/verify, for
all the following engines and vehicles:
(i) For spark-ignition engines used in
heavy-duty highway vehicles regulated
under 40 CFR part 86, subpart A, and
40 CFR parts 1036 and 1037,
(ii) For highway motorcycles
regulated under 40 CFR part 86, subpart
E.
(iii) For nonroad and stationary sparkignition engines or equipment regulated
under 40 CFR parts 60, 1045, 1048,
1051, 1054, and 1060.
Engine means an engine block with an
installed crankshaft, or a gas turbine
engine. The term engine does not
include engine blocks without an
installed crankshaft, nor does it include
any assembly of reciprocating engine
components that does not include the
engine block. (Note: For purposes of this
definition, any component that is the
primary means of converting an engine’s
energy into usable work is considered a
crankshaft, whether or not it is known
commercially as a crankshaft.) This
includes complete and partially
complete engines as follows:
(1) A complete engine is a fully
assembled engine in its final
configuration. In the case of equipmentbased standards, an engine is not
considered complete until it is installed
in the equipment, even if the engine
itself is fully assembled.
(2) A partially complete engine is an
engine that is not fully assembled or is
not in its final configuration. Except
where we specify otherwise in this part
or the standard-setting part, partially
complete engines are subject to the same
standards and requirements as complete
engines. The following would be
considered examples of partially
complete engines:
(i) An engine that is missing certain
emission-related components.
(ii) A new engine that was originally
assembled as a motor-vehicle engine
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that will be recalibrated for use as a
nonroad engine.
(iii) A new engine that was originally
assembled as a land-based engine that
will be modified for use as a marine
propulsion engine.
(iv) A short block consisting of a
crankshaft and other engine components
connected to the engine block, but
missing the head assembly.
(v) A long block consisting of all
engine components except the fuel
system and an intake manifold.
(vi) In the case of equipment-based
standards, a fully functioning engine
that is not yet installed in the
equipment. For example, a fully
functioning engine that will be installed
in an off-highway motorcycle or a
locomotive is considered partially
complete until it is installed in the
equipment.
Engine-based standard means an
emission standard expressed in units of
grams of pollutant per kilowatt-hour (or
grams of pollutant per horsepower-hour)
that applies to the engine. Emission
standards are either engine-based or
equipment-based. Note that engines may
be subject to additional standards such
as smoke standards.
Engine-based test means an emission
test intended to measure emissions in
units of grams of pollutant per kilowatthour (or grams of pollutant per
horsepower-hour), without regard to
whether the standard applies to the
engine or equipment. Note that some
products that are subject to enginebased testing are subject to additional
test requirements such as for smoke.
Engine configuration means a unique
combination of engine hardware and
calibration within an engine family.
Engines within a single engine
configuration differ only with respect to
normal production variability or factors
unrelated to emissions.
Engine/equipment and engines/
equipment mean engine(s) and/or
equipment depending on the context.
Specifically these terms mean the
following:
(1) Engine(s) when only engine-based
standards apply.
(2) Engine(s) for testing issues when
engine-based testing applies.
(3) Engine(s) and equipment when
both engine-based and equipment-based
standards apply.
(4) Equipment when only equipmentbased standards apply.
(5) Equipment for testing issues when
equipment-based testing applies.
Equipment means one of the
following things:
(1) Any vehicle, vessel, or other type
of equipment that is subject to the
requirements of this part or that uses an
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engine that is subject to the
requirements of this part. An installed
engine is part of the equipment.
(2) Fuel-system components that are
subject to an equipment-based standard
under this chapter. Installed fuel-system
components are also considered part of
the engine/equipment to which they are
attached.
Equipment-based standard means an
emission standard that applies to the
equipment in which an engine is used
or to fuel-system components associated
with an engine, without regard to how
the emissions are measured. If
equipment-based standards apply, we
require that the equipment or fuelsystem components be certified rather
than just the engine. Emission standards
are either engine-based or equipmentbased. For example, recreational
vehicles we regulate under 40 CFR part
1051 are subject to equipment-based
standards even if emission
measurements are based on engine
operation alone.
Excluded engines/equipment means
engines/equipment that are not subject
to emission standards or other
requirements because they do not meet
the definitions or other regulatory
provisions that define applicability. For
example, a non-stationary engine that is
used solely for off-highway competition
is excluded from the requirements of
this part because it meets neither the
definition of ‘‘motor vehicle engine’’ nor
‘‘nonroad engine’’ under section 216 of
the Clean Air Act.
Exempted means relating to engines/
equipment that are not required to meet
otherwise applicable standards.
Exempted engines/equipment must
conform to regulatory conditions
specified for an exemption in this part
1068 or in the standard-setting part.
Exempted engines/equipment are
deemed to be ‘‘subject to’’ the standards
of the standard-setting part even though
they are not required to comply with the
otherwise applicable requirements.
Engines/equipment exempted with
respect to a certain tier of standards may
be required to comply with an earlier
tier of standards as a condition of the
exemption; for example, engines
exempted with respect to Tier 3
standards may be required to comply
with Tier 1 or Tier 2 standards.
Family means engine family or
emission family, as applicable under the
standard-setting part.
Final deteriorated test result has the
meaning given in the standard-setting
part. If it is not defined in the standardsetting part, it means the emission level
that results from applying all
appropriate adjustments (such as
deterioration factors) to the measured
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emission result of the emission-data
engine.
Gas turbine engine means anything
commercially known as a gas turbine
engine or any collection of assembled
engine components that is substantially
similar to engines commercially known
as gas turbine engines. For example, a
jet engine is a gas turbine engine. Gas
turbine engines may be complete or
partially complete. Turbines that rely on
external combustion such as steam
engines are not gas turbine engines.
Good engineering judgment means
judgments made consistent with
generally accepted scientific and
engineering principles and all available
relevant information. See § 1068.5.
Manufacturer has the meaning given
in section 216(1) of the Clean Air Act
(42 U.S.C. 7550(1)). In general, this term
includes any person who manufactures
or assembles an engine or piece of
equipment for sale in the United States
or otherwise introduces a new engine or
piece of equipment into U.S. commerce.
This includes importers that import new
engines or new equipment into the
United States for resale. It also includes
secondary engine manufacturers.
Model year has the meaning given in
the standard-setting part. Unless the
standard-setting part specifies
otherwise, model year for individual
engines/equipment is based on the date
of manufacture or a later stage in the
assembly process determined by the
manufacturer, subject to the limitations
described in §§ 1068.103 and 1068.360.
The model year of a new engine that is
neither certified nor exempt is deemed
to be the calendar year in which it is
sold, offered for sale, imported, or
delivered or otherwise introduced into
U.S. commerce.
Motor vehicle has the meaning given
in 40 CFR 85.1703(a).
New has the meaning we give it in the
standard-setting part. Note that in
certain cases, used and remanufactured
engines/equipment may be ‘‘new’’
engines/equipment.
Nonroad engine means:
(1) Except as discussed in paragraph
(2) of this definition, a nonroad engine
is an internal combustion engine that
meets any of the following criteria:
(i) It is (or will be) used in or on a
piece of equipment that is self-propelled
or serves a dual purpose by both
propelling itself and performing another
function (such as garden tractors, offhighway mobile cranes and bulldozers).
(ii) It is (or will be) used in or on a
piece of equipment that is intended to
be propelled while performing its
function (such as lawnmowers and
string trimmers).
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(iii) By itself or in or on a piece of
equipment, it is portable or
transportable, meaning designed to be
and capable of being carried or moved
from one location to another. Indicia of
transportability include, but are not
limited to, wheels, skids, carrying
handles, dolly, trailer, or platform.
(2) An internal combustion engine is
not a nonroad engine if it meets any of
the following criteria:
(i) The engine is used to propel a
motor vehicle, an aircraft, or equipment
used solely for competition.
(ii) The engine is regulated under 40
CFR part 60, (or otherwise regulated by
a federal New Source Performance
Standard promulgated under section
111 of the Clean Air Act (42 U.S.C.
7411)). Note that this criterion does not
apply for engines meeting any of the
criteria of paragraph (1) of this
definition that are voluntarily certified
under 40 CFR part 60.
(iii) The engine otherwise included in
paragraph (1)(iii) of this definition
remains or will remain at a location for
more than 12 consecutive months or a
shorter period of time for an engine
located at a seasonal source. A location
is any single site at a building, structure,
facility, or installation. For any engine
(or engines) that replaces an engine at a
location and that is intended to perform
the same or similar function as the
engine replaced, include the time period
of both engines in calculating the
consecutive time period. An engine
located at a seasonal source is an engine
that remains at a seasonal source during
the full annual operating period of the
seasonal source. A seasonal source is a
stationary source that remains in a
single location on a permanent basis
(i.e., at least two years) and that operates
at that single location approximately
three months (or more) each year. See
§ 1068.31 for provisions that apply if the
engine is removed from the location.
Operating hours means:
(1) For engine and equipment storage
areas or facilities, times during which
people other than custodians and
security personnel are at work near, and
can access, a storage area or facility.
(2) For other areas or facilities, times
during which an assembly line operates
or any of the following activities occurs:
(i) Testing, maintenance, or service
accumulation.
(ii) Production or compilation of
records.
(iii) Certification testing.
(iv) Translation of designs from the
test stage to the production stage.
(v) Engine or equipment manufacture
or assembly.
Parent company means any entity that
has a controlling ownership of another
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company. Note that the standard-setting
part may treat a partial owner as a
parent company even if it does not have
controlling ownership of a company.
Piece of equipment means any
vehicle, vessel, locomotive, aircraft, or
other type of equipment equipped with
engines to which this part applies.
Placed into service means used for its
intended purpose. Engines/equipment
do not qualify as being ‘‘placed into
service’’ based on incidental use by a
manufacturer or dealer.
Reasonable technical basis means
information that would lead a person
familiar with engine design and
function to reasonably believe a
conclusion related to compliance with
the requirements of this part. For
example, it would be reasonable to
believe that parts performing the same
function as the original parts (and to the
same degree) would control emissions
to the same degree as the original parts.
Note that what is a reasonable basis for
a person without technical training
might not qualify as a reasonable
technical basis.
Relating to as used in this section
means relating to something in a
specific, direct manner. This expression
is used in this section only to define
terms as adjectives and not to broaden
the meaning of the terms. Note that
‘‘relating to’’ is used in the same manner
as in the standard-setting parts.
Replacement engine means an engine
exempted as a replacement engine
under § 1068.240.
Revoke means to terminate the
certificate or an exemption for a family.
If we revoke a certificate or exemption,
you must apply for a new certificate or
exemption before continuing to
introduce the affected engines/
equipment into U.S. commerce. This
does not apply to engines/equipment
you no longer possess.
Secondary engine manufacturer
means anyone who produces a new
engine by modifying a complete or
partially complete engine that was made
by a different company. For the purpose
of this definition, ‘‘modifying’’ does not
include making changes that do not
remove an engine from its original
certified configuration. Secondary
engine manufacturing includes, for
example, converting automotive engines
for use in industrial applications, or
land-based engines for use in marine
applications. This applies whether it
involves a complete or partially
complete engine and whether the engine
was previously certified to emission
standards or not.
(1) Manufacturers controlled by the
manufacturer of the base engine (or by
an entity that also controls the
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manufacturer of the base engine) are not
secondary engine manufacturers; rather,
both entities are considered to be one
manufacturer for purposes of this part.
(2) This definition applies equally to
equipment manufacturers that modify
engines. Also, equipment manufacturers
that certify to equipment-based
standards using engines produced by
another company are deemed to be
secondary engine manufacturers.
(3) Except as specified in paragraph
(2) of this definition, companies
importing complete engines into the
United States are not secondary engine
manufacturers regardless of the
procedures and relationships between
companies for assembling the engines.
Small business means either of the
following:
(1) A company that qualifies under
the standard-setting part for special
provisions for small businesses or smallvolume manufacturers.
(2) A company that qualifies as a
small business under the regulations
adopted by the Small Business
Administration at 13 CFR 121.201 if the
standard-setting part does not establish
such qualifying criteria.
Standard-setting part means a part in
the Code of Federal Regulations that
defines emission standards for a
particular engine and/or piece of
equipment (see § 1068.1(a)). For
example, the standard-setting part for
marine spark-ignition engines is 40 CFR
part 1045. For provisions related to
evaporative emissions, the standardsetting part may be 40 CFR part 1060,
as specified in 40 CFR 1060.1.
Subsidiary means an entity that is
owned or controlled by a parent
company.
Suspend means to temporarily
discontinue the certificate or an
exemption for a family. If we suspend
a certificate, you may not sell, offer for
sale, or introduce or deliver into
commerce in the United States or
import into the United States engines/
equipment from that family unless we
reinstate the certificate or approve a
new one. This also applies if we
suspend an exemption, unless we
reinstate the exemption.
Ultimate purchaser means the first
person who in good faith purchases a
new engine or new piece of equipment
for purposes other than resale.
United States, in a geographic sense,
means the States, the District of
Columbia, the Commonwealth of Puerto
Rico, the Commonwealth of the
Northern Mariana Islands, Guam,
American Samoa, and the U.S. Virgin
Islands.
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U.S.-directed production volume has
the meaning given in the standardsetting part.
Void means to invalidate a certificate
or an exemption ab initio (‘‘from the
beginning’’). If we void a certificate, all
the engines/equipment introduced into
U.S. commerce under that family for
that model year are considered
uncertified (or nonconforming) and are
therefore not covered by a certificate of
conformity, and you are liable for all
engines/equipment introduced into U.S.
commerce under the certificate and may
face civil or criminal penalties or both.
This applies equally to all engines/
equipment in the family, including
engines/equipment introduced into U.S.
commerce before we voided the
certificate. If we void an exemption, all
the engines/equipment introduced into
U.S. commerce under that exemption
are considered uncertified (or
nonconforming), and you are liable for
engines/equipment introduced into U.S.
commerce under the exemption and
may face civil or criminal penalties or
both. You may not sell, offer for sale, or
introduce or deliver into commerce in
the United States or import into the
United States any additional engines/
equipment using the voided exemption.
Voluntary emission recall means a
repair, adjustment, or modification
program voluntarily initiated and
conducted by a manufacturer to remedy
any emission-related defect for which
engine owners have been notified.
We (us, our) means the Administrator
of the Environmental Protection Agency
and any authorized representatives.
■ 230. Section 1068.31 is amended by
revising the section heading, the
introductory text, and paragraph (c) to
read as follows:
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§ 1068.31 Changing the status of nonroad
or stationary engines under the definition of
‘‘nonroad engine’’.
This section specifies the provisions
that apply when an engine previously
used in a nonroad application is
subsequently used in an application
other than a nonroad application, or
when an engine previously used in a
stationary application (i.e., an engine
that was not used as a nonroad engine
and that was not used to propel a motor
vehicle, an aircraft, or equipment used
solely for competition) is moved.
*
*
*
*
*
(c) A stationary engine does not
become a new nonroad engine if it is
moved but continues to meet the criteria
specified in paragraph (2)(iii) in the
definition of ‘‘nonroad engine’’ in
§ 1068.30 in its new location. For
example, a transportable engine that is
used in a single specific location for 18
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months and is later moved to a second
specific location where it will remain
for at least 12 months is considered to
be a stationary engine in both locations.
Note that for stationary engines that are
neither portable nor transportable in
actual use, the residence-time
restrictions in the definition of
‘‘nonroad engine’’ generally do not
apply.
*
*
*
*
*
■ 231. A new § 1068.32 is added to read
as follows:
§ 1068.32
Explanatory terms.
This section explains how certain
phrases and terms are used in 40 CFR
parts 1000 through 1099, especially
those used to clarify and explain
regulatory provisions.
(a) Types of provisions. The term
‘‘provision’’ includes all aspects of the
regulations. As described in this section,
regulatory provisions include standards,
requirements, prohibitions, and
allowances, along with a variety of other
types of provisions. In certain cases, we
may use these terms to apply to some
but not all of the provisions of a part or
section. For example, we may apply the
allowances of a section for certain
engines, but not the requirements. We
may also apply all provisions except the
requirements and prohibitions.
(1) A standard is a requirement
established by regulation that limits the
emissions of air pollutants. Examples of
standards include numerical emission
standards (such as 0.01 g/kW-hr) and
design standards (such a closed
crankcase standard). Compliance with
or conformance to a standard is a
specific type of requirement, and in
some cases a standard may be discussed
as a requirement. Thus, a statement
about the requirements of a part or
section also applies with respect to the
standards of the part or section.
(2) The regulations apply other
requirements in addition to standards.
For example, manufacturers are
required to keep records and provide
reports to EPA.
(3) While requirements state what
someone must do, prohibitions state
what someone may not do. Prohibitions
are often referred to as prohibited acts
or prohibited actions. Most penalties
apply for violations of prohibitions. A
list of prohibitions may therefore
include the failure to meet a
requirement as a prohibited action.
(4) Allowances provide some form of
relief from requirements. This may
include provisions delaying
implementation, establishing
exemptions or test waivers, or creating
alternative compliance options.
Allowances may be conditional. For
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example, we may exempt you from
certain requirements on the condition
that you meet certain other
requirements.
(5) The regulations also include
important provisions that are not
standards, requirements, prohibitions,
or allowances, such as definitions.
(6) Engines/equipment are generally
considered ‘‘subject to’’ a specific
provision if that provision applies, or if
it does not apply because of an
exemption authorized under the
regulation. For example, locomotives
are subject to the provisions of 40 CFR
part 1033 even if they are exempted
from the standards of part 1033.
(b) Singular and plural. Unless stated
otherwise or unless it is clear from the
regulatory context, provisions written in
singular form include the plural form
and provisions written in plural form
include the singular form. For example,
the statement ‘‘The manufacturer must
keep this report for three years’’ is
equivalent to ‘‘The manufacturers must
keep these reports for three years.’’
(c) Inclusive lists. Lists in the
regulations prefaced by ‘‘including’’ or
‘‘this includes’’ are not exhaustive. The
terms ‘‘including’’ and ‘‘this includes’’
should be read to mean ‘‘including but
not limited to’’ and ‘‘this includes but
is not limited to’’. For example, the
phrase ‘‘including small manufacturers’’
does not exclude large manufacturers.
However, prescriptive statements to
‘‘include’’ specific items (such as those
related to recordkeeping and reporting
requirements) may be exhaustive.
(d) Notes. Statements that begin with
‘‘Note:’’ or ‘‘Note that’’ are intended to
clarify specific regulatory provisions
stated elsewhere in the regulations. By
themselves, such statements are not
intended to specify regulatory
requirements. Such statements are
typically used for regulatory text that,
while legally sufficient to specify a
requirement, may be misunderstood by
some readers. For example, the
regulations might note that a word is
defined elsewhere in the regulations to
have a specific meaning that may be
either narrower or broader than some
readers might assume.
(e) Examples. Examples provided in
the regulations are typically introduced
by either ‘‘for example’’ or ‘‘such as’’.
Specific examples given in the
regulations do not necessarily represent
the most common examples. The
regulations may specify examples
conditionally (that is, specifying that
they are applicable only if certain
criteria or conditions are met). Lists of
examples cannot be presumed to be
exhaustive lists.
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(f) Generally and typically. Statements
that begin with ‘‘generally’’, ‘‘in
general’’, or ‘‘typically’’ should not be
read to apply universally or absolutely.
Rather they are intended to apply for the
most common circumstances.
‘‘Generally’’ and ‘‘typically’’ statements
may be identified as notes as described
in paragraph (d) of this section.
(g) Unusual circumstances. The
regulations specify certain allowances
that apply ‘‘in unusual circumstances’’.
While it is difficult to precisely define
what ‘‘unusual circumstances’’ means,
this generally refers to specific
circumstances that are both rare and
unforeseeable. For example, a severe
hurricane in the northeastern United
States may be considered to be an
unusual circumstance, while a less
severe hurricane in the southeastern
United States may not be. Where the
regulations limit an allowance to
unusual circumstances, manufacturers
and others should not presume that
such an allowance will be available to
them. Provisions related to unusual
circumstances may be described using
the phrase ‘‘normal circumstances’’,
which are those circumstances that are
not unusual circumstances.
(h) Exceptions and other
specifications. Regulatory provisions
may be expressed as a general
prohibition, requirement, or allowance
that is modified by other regulatory text.
Such provisions may include phrases
such as ‘‘unless specified otherwise’’,
‘‘except as specified’’, or ‘‘as specified
in this section’’. It is important that the
exceptions and the more general
statement be considered together. This
regulatory construct is intended to allow
the core requirement or allowance to be
stated in simple, clear sentences, rather
than more precise and comprehensive
sentences that may be misread. For
example, where an action is prohibited
in most but not all circumstances, the
provision may state that you may not
take the action, ‘‘except as specified in
this section.’’ The exceptions could then
be stated in subsequent regulatory text.
■ 232. Section 1068.35 is amended by
revising the section heading to read as
follows:
§ 1068.35 Symbols, acronyms, and
abbreviations.
*
*
*
*
*
233. Section 1068.40 is amended by
revising the section heading and
paragraph (a) and removing paragraph
(c).
The revisions read as follows:
■
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§ 1068.40 Special provisions for
implementing changes in the regulations.
(a) During the 12 months following
the effective date of any change in the
provisions of this part, you may ask to
apply the previously applicable
provisions. Note that the effective date
is generally 30 or 60 days after
publication in the Federal Register, as
noted in the final rule. We will
generally approve your request if you
can demonstrate that it would be
impractical to comply with the new
requirements. We may consider the
potential for adverse environmental
impacts in our decision. Similarly, in
unusual circumstances, you may ask for
relief under this paragraph (a) from new
requirements that apply under the
standard-setting part.
*
*
*
*
*
■ 234. Section 1068.45 is amended by
revising paragraph (e) and adding
paragraphs (g) and (h) to read as follows:
§ 1068.45
General labeling provisions.
*
*
*
*
*
(e) Prohibitions against removing
labels. As specified in § 1068.101(b)(7),
removing permanent labels is prohibited
except for certain circumstances.
Removing temporary or removable
labels prematurely is also prohibited by
§ 1068.101(b)(7).
*
*
*
*
*
(g) Date format. If you use a coded
approach to identify the engine/
equipment’s date of manufacture,
describe or interpret the code in your
application for certification.
(h) Branding. The following
provisions apply if you identify the
name and trademark of another
company instead of your own on your
emission control information label, as
provided in the standard-setting part:
(1) You must have a contractual
agreement with the other company that
obligates that company to take the
following steps:
(i) Meet the emission warranty
requirements that apply under the
standard-setting part. This may involve
a separate agreement involving
reimbursement of warranty-related
expenses.
(ii) Report all warranty-related
information to the certificate holder.
(2) In your application for
certification, identify the company
whose trademark you will use.
(3) You remain responsible for
meeting all the requirements of this
chapter, including warranty and defectreporting provisions.
■ 235. Section 1068.95 is revised to read
as follows:
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§ 1068.95
40719
Incorporation by reference.
(a) Certain material is incorporated by
reference into this part with the
approval of the Director of the Federal
Register under 5 U.S.C. 552(a) and 1
CFR part 51. To enforce any edition
other than that specified in this section,
a document must be published in the
Federal Register and the material must
be available to the public. All approved
materials are available for inspection at
the Air and Radiation Docket and
Information Center (Air Docket) in the
EPA Docket Center (EPA/DC) at Rm.
3334, EPA West Bldg., 1301
Constitution Ave. NW., Washington,
DC. The EPA/DC Public Reading Room
hours of operation are 8:30 a.m. to 4:30
p.m., Monday through Friday, excluding
legal holidays. The telephone number of
the EPA/DC Public Reading Room is
(202) 566–1744, and the telephone
number for the Air Docket is (202) 566–
1742. These approved materials are also
available for inspection at the National
Archives and Records Administration
(NARA). For information on the
availability of this material at NARA,
call (202) 741–6030 or go to https://
www.archives.gov/federal_register/
code_of_federal_regulations/ibr_
locations.html. In addition, these
materials are available from the sources
listed below.
(b) SAE International, 400
Commonwealth Dr., Warrendale, PA
15096–0001, (724) 776–4841, or https://
www.sae.org:
(1) SAE J1930, Electrical/Electronic
Systems Diagnostic Terms, Definitions,
Abbreviations, and Acronyms, revised
April 2002 (‘‘SAE J1930’’), IBR approved
for § 1068.45(f).
(2) [Reserved]
Subpart B—Prohibited Actions and
Related Requirements
236. Section 1068.101 is amended by
revising the introductory text and
paragraphs (a)(1), (b), and (h)
introductory text to read as follows:
■
§ 1068.101 What general actions does this
regulation prohibit?
This section specifies actions that are
prohibited and the maximum civil
penalties that we can assess for each
violation in accordance with 42 U.S.C.
7522 and 7524. The maximum penalty
values listed in paragraphs (a) and (b) of
this section and in § 1068.125 apply as
of December 7, 2013. As described in
paragraph (h) of this section, these
maximum penalty limits are different
for earlier violations and they may be
adjusted as set forth in 40 CFR part 19.
(a) * * *
(1) Introduction into commerce. You
may not sell, offer for sale, or introduce
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or deliver into commerce in the United
States or import into the United States
any new engine/equipment after
emission standards take effect for the
engine/equipment, unless it is covered
by a valid certificate of conformity for
its model year and has the required
label or tag. You also may not take any
of the actions listed in the previous
sentence with respect to any equipment
containing an engine subject to this
part’s provisions unless the engine is
covered by a valid certificate of
conformity for its model year and has
the required engine label or tag. We may
assess a civil penalty up to $37,500 for
each engine or piece of equipment in
violation.
(i) For purposes of this paragraph
(a)(1), a valid certificate of conformity is
one that applies for the same model year
as the model year of the equipment
(except as allowed by § 1068.105(a)),
covers the appropriate category or
subcategory of engines/equipment (such
as locomotive or sterndrive/inboard
Marine SI or nonhandheld Small SI),
and conforms to all requirements
specified for equipment in the standardsetting part. Engines/equipment are
considered not covered by a certificate
unless they are in a configuration
described in the application for
certification.
(ii) The prohibitions of this paragraph
(a)(1) also apply for new engines you
produce to replace an older engine in a
piece of equipment, except that the
engines may qualify for the
replacement-engine exemption in
§ 1068.240.
(iii) The prohibitions of this
paragraph (a)(1) also apply for new
engines that will be installed in
equipment subject to equipment-based
standards, except that the engines may
qualify for an exemption under
§ 1068.260(c) or § 1068.262.
(iv) Where the regulations specify that
you are allowed to introduce engines/
equipment into U.S. commerce without
a certificate of conformity, you may take
any of the otherwise prohibited actions
specified in this paragraph (a)(1) with
respect to those engines/equipment.
*
*
*
*
*
(b) The following prohibitions apply
to everyone with respect to the engines
and equipment to which this part
applies:
(1) Tampering. You may not remove
or render inoperative any device or
element of design installed on or in
engines/equipment in compliance with
the regulations prior to its sale and
delivery to the ultimate purchaser. You
also may not knowingly remove or
render inoperative any such device or
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element of design after such sale and
delivery to the ultimate purchaser. This
includes, for example, operating an
engine without a supply of appropriate
quality urea if the emission control
system relies on urea to reduce NOX
emissions or the use of incorrect fuel or
engine oil that renders the emissions
control system inoperative. Section
1068.120 describes how this applies to
rebuilding engines. See the standardsetting part, which may include
additional provisions regarding actions
prohibited by this requirement. For a
manufacturer or dealer, we may assess
a civil penalty up to $37,500 for each
engine or piece of equipment in
violation. For anyone else, we may
assess a civil penalty up to $3,750 for
each engine or piece of equipment in
violation. This prohibition does not
apply in any of the following situations:
(i) You need to repair the engine/
equipment and you restore it to proper
functioning when the repair is
complete.
(ii) You need to modify the engine/
equipment to respond to a temporary
emergency and you restore it to proper
functioning as soon as possible.
(iii) You modify new engines/
equipment that another manufacturer
has already certified to meet emission
standards and recertify them under your
own family. In this case you must tell
the original manufacturer not to include
the modified engines/equipment in the
original family.
(2) Defeat devices. You may not
knowingly manufacture, sell, offer to
sell, or install, any component that
bypasses, impairs, defeats, or disables
the control of emissions of any regulated
pollutant, except as explicitly allowed
by the standard-setting part. We may
assess a civil penalty up to $3,750 for
each component in violation.
(3) Stationary engines. For an engine
that is excluded from any requirements
of this chapter because it is a stationary
engine, you may not move it or install
it in any mobile equipment except as
allowed by the provisions of this
chapter. You may not circumvent or
attempt to circumvent the residencetime requirements of paragraph (2)(iii)
of the nonroad engine definition in
§ 1068.30. Anyone violating this
paragraph (b)(3) is deemed to be a
manufacturer in violation of paragraph
(a)(1) of this section. We may assess a
civil penalty up to $37,500 for each
engine or piece of equipment in
violation.
(4) Competition engines/equipment.
(i) For uncertified engines/equipment
that are excluded or exempted as new
engines/equipment from any
requirements of this chapter because
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they are to be used solely for
competition, you may not use any of
them in a manner that is inconsistent
with use solely for competition. Anyone
violating this paragraph (b)(4)(i) is
deemed to be a manufacturer in
violation of paragraph (a)(1) of this
section. We may assess a civil penalty
up to $37,500 for each engine or piece
of equipment in violation.
(ii) For certified nonroad engines/
equipment that qualify for exemption
from the tampering prohibition as
described in § 1068.235 because they are
to be used solely for competition, you
may not use any of them in a manner
that is inconsistent with use solely for
competition. Anyone violating this
paragraph (b)(4)(ii) is in violation of
paragraph (b)(1) or (2) of this section.
Certified motor vehicles and motor
vehicle engines and their emission
control devices must remain in their
certified configuration even if they are
used solely for competition or if they
become nonroad vehicles or engines;
anyone modifying a certified motor
vehicle or motor vehicle engine for any
reason is subject to the tampering and
defeat device prohibitions of 40 CFR
1068.101(b) and 42 U.S.C. 7522(a)(3).
(5) Importation. You may not import
an uncertified engine or piece of
equipment if it is defined to be new in
the standard-setting part with a model
year for which emission standards
applied. Anyone violating this
paragraph (b)(5) is deemed to be a
manufacturer in violation of paragraph
(a)(1) of this section. We may assess a
civil penalty up to $37,500 for each
engine or piece of equipment in
violation. Note the following:
(i) The definition of new is broad for
imported engines/equipment;
uncertified engines and equipment
(including used engines and equipment)
are generally considered to be new
when imported.
(ii) Used engines/equipment that were
originally manufactured before
applicable EPA standards were in effect
are generally not subject to emission
standards.
(6) Warranty, recall, and maintenance
instructions. You must meet your
obligation to honor your emissionrelated warranty under § 1068.115,
including any commitments you
identify in your application for
certification. You must also fulfill all
applicable requirements under subpart
F of this part related to emission-related
defects and recalls. You must also
provide emission-related installation
and maintenance instructions as
described in the standard-setting part.
Failure to meet these obligations is
prohibited. Also, except as specifically
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provided by regulation, you are
prohibited from directly or indirectly
communicating to the ultimate
purchaser or a later purchaser that the
emission-related warranty is valid only
if the owner has service performed at
authorized facilities or only if the owner
uses authorized parts, components, or
systems. We may assess a civil penalty
up to $37,500 for each engine or piece
of equipment in violation.
(7) Labeling. (i) You may not remove
or alter an emission control information
label or other required permanent label
except as specified in this paragraph
(b)(7) or otherwise allowed by this
chapter. Removing or altering an
emission control information label is a
violation of paragraph (b)(1) of this
section. However, it is not a violation to
remove a label in the following
circumstances:
(A) The engine is destroyed, is
permanently disassembled, or otherwise
loses its identity such that the original
title to the engine is no longer valid.
(B) The regulations specifically direct
you to remove the label. For example,
see § 1068.235.
(C) The part on which the label is
mounted needs to be replaced. In this
case, you must have a replacement part
with a duplicate of the original label
installed by the certifying manufacturer
or an authorized agent, except that the
replacement label may omit the date of
manufacture if applicable. We generally
require labels to be permanently
attached to parts that will not normally
be replaced, but this provision allows
for replacements in unusual
circumstances, such as damage in a
collision or other accident.
(D) The original label is incorrect,
provided that it is replaced with the
correct label from the certifying
manufacturer or an authorized agent.
This allowance to replace incorrect
labels does not affect whether the
application of an incorrect original label
is a violation.
(ii) Removing or altering a temporary
or removable label contrary to the
provisions of this paragraph (b)(7)(ii) is
a violation of paragraph (b)(1) of this
section.
(A) For labels identifying temporary
exemptions, you may not remove or
alter the label while the engine/
equipment is in an exempt status. The
exemption is automatically revoked for
each engine/equipment for which the
label has been removed.
(B) For temporary or removable
consumer information labels, only the
ultimate purchaser may remove the
label.
(iii) You may not apply a false
emission control information label. You
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also may not manufacture, sell, or offer
to sell false labels. The application,
manufacture, sale, or offer for sale of
false labels is a violation of this section
(such as paragraph (a)(1) or (b)(2) of this
section). Note that applying an
otherwise valid emission control
information label to the wrong engine is
considered to be applying a false label.
(iv) Information on engine/equipment
labels as specified in this chapter is
deemed to be information submitted to
EPA and is therefore subject to the
prohibition against knowingly
submitting false information under
paragraph (a)(2) of this section and 18
U.S.C. 1001.
*
*
*
*
*
(h) The maximum penalty values
listed in paragraphs (a) and (b) of this
section and in § 1068.125 apply as of
December 7, 2013. Maximum penalty
values for earlier violations are
published in 40 CFR part 19. Maximum
penalty limits may be adjusted after
December 7, 2013 based on the
Consumer Price Index. The specific
regulatory provisions for changing the
maximum penalties, published in 40
CFR part 19, reference the applicable
U.S. Code citation on which the
prohibited action is based. The
following table is shown here for
informational purposes:
*
*
*
*
*
■ 237. Section 1068.103 is revised to
read as follows:
§ 1068.103 Provisions related to the
duration and applicability of certificates of
conformity.
(a) Engines/equipment covered by a
certificate of conformity are limited to
those that are produced during the
period specified in the certificate and
conform to the specifications described
in the certificate and the associated
application for certification. For the
purposes of this paragraph (a),
‘‘specifications’’ includes the emission
control information label and any
conditions or limitations identified by
the manufacturer or EPA. For example,
if the application for certification
specifies certain engine configurations,
the certificate does not cover any
configurations that are not specified. We
may ignore any information provided in
the application that we determine is not
relevant to a demonstration of
compliance with applicable regulations,
such as your projected production
volumes in many cases.
(b) Unless the standard-setting part
specifies otherwise, determine the
production period corresponding to
each certificate of conformity as
specified in this paragraph (b). In
general, the production period is the
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manufacturer’s annual production
period identified as a model year.
(1) For engines/equipment subject to
emission standards based on model
years, the first day of the annual
production period can be no earlier than
January 2 of the calendar year preceding
the year for which the model year is
named, or the earliest date of
manufacture for any engine/equipment
in the engine family, whichever is later.
The last day of the annual production
period can be no later than December 31
of the calendar year for which the model
year is named or the latest date of
manufacture for any engine/equipment
in the engine family, whichever is
sooner. Note that this approach limits
how you can designate a model year for
your engines/equipment; however, it
does not limit your ability to meet more
stringent emission standards early
where this is permitted in the
regulation.
(2) For fuel-system components
certified to evaporative emission
standards based on production periods
rather than model years, the production
period is either the calendar year or a
longer period we specify consistent with
the manufacturer’s normal production
practices.
(c) A certificate of conformity will not
cover engines/equipment you produce
with a date of manufacture earlier than
the date you submit the application for
certification for the family. You may
start to produce engines/equipment after
you submit an application for
certification and before the effective
date of a certificate of conformity,
subject to the following conditions:
(1) The engines/equipment must
conform in all material respects to the
engines/equipment described in your
application. Note that if we require you
to modify your application, you must
ensure that all engines/equipment
conform to the specifications of the
modified application.
(2) The engines/equipment may not
be sold, offered for sale, introduced into
U.S. commerce, or delivered for
introduction into U.S. commerce before
the effective date of the certificate of
conformity.
(3) You must notify us in your
application for certification that you
plan to use the provisions of this
paragraph (c) and when you intend to
start production. If the standard-setting
part specifies mandatory testing for
production-line engines, you must start
testing as directed in the standardsetting part based on your actual start of
production, even if that occurs before
we approve your certification. You must
also agree to give us full opportunity to
inspect and/or test the engines/
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equipment during and after production.
For example, we must have the
opportunity to specify selective
enforcement audits as allowed by the
standard-setting part and the Clean Air
Act as if the engines/equipment were
produced after the effective date of the
certificate.
(4) See § 1068.262 for special
provisions that apply for secondary
engine manufacturers receiving
shipment of partially complete engines
before the effective date of a certificate.
(d) The prohibition in § 1068.101(a)(1)
against offering to sell engines/
equipment without a valid certificate of
conformity generally does not apply for
engines/equipment that have not yet
been produced. You may contractually
agree to produce engines/equipment
before obtaining the required certificate
of conformity. This is intended to allow
manufacturers of low-volume products
to establish a sufficient market for
engines/equipment before going through
the effort to certify.
(e) Engines/equipment with a date of
manufacture after December 31 of the
calendar year for which a model year is
named are not covered by the certificate
of conformity for that model year. You
must submit an application for a new
certificate of conformity demonstrating
compliance with applicable standards
even if the engines/equipment are
identical to those built before December
31.
(f) The flexible approach to naming
the annual production period described
in paragraph (b)(1) of this section is
intended to allow you to introduce new
products at any point during the year.
This is based on the expectation that
production periods generally run on
consistent schedules from year to year.
You may not use this flexibility to
arrange your production periods such
that you can avoid annual certification.
(g) An engine is generally assigned a
model year based on its date of
manufacture, which is typically based
on the date the crankshaft is installed in
the engine (see § 1068.30). You may not
circumvent the provisions of
§ 1068.101(a)(1) by stockpiling engines
with a date of manufacture before new
or changed emission standards take
effect by deviating from your normal
production and inventory practices. (For
purposes of this paragraph (g), normal
production and inventory practices
means those practices you typically use
for similar families in years in which
emission standards do not change. We
may require you to provide us routine
production and inventory records that
document your normal practices for the
preceding eight years.) For most engines
you should plan to complete the
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assembly of an engine of a given model
year into its certified configuration
within the first week after the end of the
model year if new emission standards
start to apply in that model year. For
special circumstances it may be
appropriate for your normal business
practice to involve more time. For
engines with per-cylinder displacement
below 2.5 liters, if new emission
standards start to apply in a given year,
we would consider an engine not to be
covered by a certificate of conformity for
the preceding model year if the engine
is not assembled in a compliant
configuration within 30 days after the
end of the model year for that engine
family. (Note: an engine is considered
‘‘in a compliant configuration’’ without
being fully assembled if § 1068.260(a) or
(b) authorizes shipment of the engine
without certain components.) For
example, in the case where new
standards apply in the 2010 model year,
and your normal production period is
based on the calendar year, you must
complete the assembly of all your 2009
model year engines before January 31,
2010, or an earlier date consistent with
your normal production and inventory
practices. For engines with per-cylinder
displacement at or above 2.5 liters, this
time may not exceed 60 days. Note that
for the purposes of this paragraph (g), an
engine shipped under § 1068.261 is
deemed to be a complete engine. Note
also that § 1068.245 allows flexibility for
additional time in unusual
circumstances. Note finally that
disassembly of complete engines and
reassembly (such as for shipment) does
not affect the determination of model
year; the provisions of this paragraph (g)
apply based on the date on which initial
assembly is complete.
(h) This paragraph (h) describes the
effect of suspending, revoking, or
voiding a certificate of conformity. See
the definitions of ‘‘suspend,’’ ‘‘revoke,’’
and ‘‘void’’ in § 1068.30. Engines/
equipment produced at a time when the
otherwise applicable certificate of
conformity has been suspended or
revoked are not covered by a certificate
of conformity. Where a certificate of
conformity is void, all engines/
equipment produced under that
certificate of conformity are not and
were not covered by a certificate of
conformity. In cases of suspension,
engines/equipment will be covered by a
certificate only if they are produced
after the certificate is reinstated or a
new certificate is issued. In cases of
revocation and voiding, engines/
equipment will be covered by a
certificate only if they are produced
after we issue a new certificate. 42
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U.S.C. 7522(a)(1) and § 1068.101(a)(1)
prohibit selling, offering for sale,
introducing into commerce, delivering
for introduction into commerce, and
importing engines/equipment that are
not covered by a certificate of
conformity, and they prohibit anyone
from causing another to violate these
prohibitions.
(i) You may transfer a certificate to
another entity only in the following
cases:
(1) You may transfer a certificate to a
parent company, including a parent
company that purchases your company
after we have issued your certificate.
(2) You may transfer a certificate to a
subsidiary including a subsidiary you
purchase after we have issued your
certificate.
(3) You may transfer a certificate to a
subsidiary of your parent company.
■ 238. Section 1068.105 is amended by
revising paragraphs (a) and (c)(2) to read
as follows:
§ 1068.105 What other provisions apply to
me specifically if I manufacture equipment
needing certified engines?
*
*
*
*
*
(a) Transitioning to new engine-based
standards. If new engine-based emission
standards apply in a given model year,
your equipment produced in that
calendar year (or later) must have
engines that are certified to the new
standards, except that you may continue
to use up normal inventories of earlier
engines that were built before the date
of the new or changed standards. For
purposes of this paragraph (a), normal
inventory applies for engines you
possess and engines from your engine
supplier’s normal inventory. (Note: this
paragraph (a) does not apply in the case
of new remanufacturing standards.) We
may require you and your engine
suppliers to provide us routine
production and/or inventory records
that document your normal practices for
the preceding eight years. For example,
if you have records documenting that
your normal inventory practice is to
keep on hand a one-month supply of
engines based on your upcoming
production schedules, and a new tier of
standards starts to apply for the 2015
model year, you may order engines
consistent with your normal inventory
requirements late in the engine
manufacturer’s 2014 model year and
install those engines in your equipment
consistent with your normal production
schedule. Also, if your model year starts
before the end of the calendar year
preceding new standards, you may use
engines from the previous model year
for those units you completely assemble
before January 1 of the year that new
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standards apply. If emission standards
for the engine do not change in a given
model year, you may continue to install
engines from the previous model year
without restriction (or any earlier model
year for which the same standards
apply). You may not circumvent the
provisions of § 1068.101(a)(1) by
stockpiling engines that were built
before new or changed standards take
effect. Similarly, you may not
circumvent the provisions of
§ 1068.101(a)(1) by knowingly installing
engines that were stockpiled by engine
suppliers in violation of § 1068.103(f).
Note that this allowance does not apply
for equipment subject to equipmentbased standards. See 40 CFR 1060.601
for similar provisions that apply for
equipment subject to evaporative
emission standards. Note that the
standard-setting part may impose
further restrictions on using up
inventories of engines from an earlier
model year under this paragraph (a).
*
*
*
*
*
(c) * * *
(2) Permanently attach the duplicate
label to your equipment by securing it
to a part needed for normal operation
and not normally requiring replacement.
Make sure an average person can easily
read it. Note that attaching an inaccurate
duplicate label may be a violation of
§ 1068.101(b)(7).
*
*
*
*
*
■ 239. Section 1068.110 is amended by
revising the section heading and
paragraph (d) to read as follows:
§ 1068.110 Other provisions for engines/
equipment in service.
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*
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(d) Defeat devices. We may test
components, engines, and equipment to
investigate potential defeat devices. We
may also require the manufacturer to do
this testing. If we choose to investigate
one of your designs, we may require you
to show us that a component is not a
defeat device, and that an engine/
equipment does not have a defeat
device. To do this, you may have to
share with us information regarding test
programs, engineering evaluations,
design specifications, calibrations, onboard computer algorithms, and design
strategies. It is a violation of the Clean
Air Act for anyone to make, install or
use defeat devices as described in
§ 1068.101(b)(2) and the standardsetting part.
*
*
*
*
*
■ 240. Section 1068.115 is amended by
revising the section heading to read as
follows:
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§ 1068.115 What are manufacturers’
emission-related warranty requirements?
*
*
*
*
*
241. Section 1068.120 is amended by
revising the section heading and
paragraph (f) to read as follows:
■
§ 1068.120
engines.
Requirements for rebuilding
*
*
*
*
*
(f) A rebuilt engine or other used
engine may replace a certified engine in
a piece of equipment only if the engine
was built and/or rebuilt to a certified
configuration meeting equivalent or
more stringent emission standards. Note
that a certified configuration would
generally include more than one model
year. A rebuilt engine being installed
that is from the same model year or a
newer model year than the engine being
replaced meets this requirement. The
following examples illustrate the
provisions of this paragraph (f):
(1) In most cases, you may use a
rebuilt Tier 2 engine to replace a Tier 1
engine or another Tier 2 engine.
(2) You may use a rebuilt Tier 1
engine to replace a Tier 2 engine if the
two engines differ only with respect to
model year or other characteristics
unrelated to emissions since such
engines would be considered to be in
the same configuration. This may occur
if the Tier 1 engine had emission levels
below the Tier 2 standards or if the Tier
2 engine was certified with a Family
Emission Limit for calculating emission
credits.
(3) You may use a rebuilt engine that
originally met the Tier 1 standards
without certification, as provided under
§ 1068.265, to replace a certified Tier 1
engine. This may occur for engines
produced under a Transition Program
for Equipment Manufacturers such as
that described in 40 CFR 1039.625.
(4) You may never replace a certified
engine with an engine rebuilt to a
configuration that does not meet EPA
emission standards. Note that, for
purposes of this paragraph (f)(4), a
configuration is considered to meet EPA
emission standards if it was previously
certified or was otherwise shown to
meet emission standards (see
§ 1068.265).
*
*
*
*
*
■ 242. Section 1068.125 is amended by
revising paragraph (b) introductory text
to read as follows:
§ 1068.125 What happens if I violate the
regulations?
*
*
*
*
*
(b) Administrative penalties. Instead
of bringing a civil action, we may assess
administrative penalties if the total is
less than $320,000 against you
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40723
individually. This maximum penalty
may be greater if the Administrator and
the Attorney General jointly determine
that a greater administrative penalty
assessment is appropriate, or if the limit
is adjusted under 40 CFR part 19. No
court may review this determination.
Before we assess an administrative
penalty, you may ask for a hearing as
described in subpart G of this part. The
Administrator may compromise or
remit, with or without conditions, any
administrative penalty that may be
imposed under this section.
*
*
*
*
*
Subpart C— Exemptions and
Exclusions
243. Section 1068.201 is amended by
revising the section heading and
paragraphs (a), (c), and (i) to read as
follows:
■
§ 1068.201 General exemption and
exclusion provisions.
*
*
*
*
*
(a) This subpart identifies which
engines/equipment qualify for
exemptions and what information we
need. We may require more information.
*
*
*
*
*
(c) If you use an exemption under this
subpart, we may require you to add a
permanent or temporary label to your
exempted engines/equipment. You may
ask us to modify these labeling
requirements if it is appropriate for your
engine/equipment.
*
*
*
*
*
(i) If you want to take an action with
respect to an exempted or excluded
engine/equipment that is prohibited by
the exemption or exclusion, such as
selling it, you need to certify the engine/
equipment or qualify for a different
exemption.
(1) We will issue a certificate of
conformity if you send us an application
for certification showing that you meet
all the applicable requirements from the
standard-setting part and pay the
appropriate fee. Alternatively, we may
allow you to include in an existing
certified engine family those engines/
equipment you modify (or otherwise
demonstrate) to be identical to engines/
equipment already covered by the
certificate. We would base such an
approval on our review of any
appropriate documentation. These
engines/equipment must have emission
control information labels that
accurately describe their status.
(2) The exemption provisions of this
part may be applied to new engines
without regard to whether or not they
have already been certified or exempted.
You may ask to apply the exemption
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provisions prospectively to used
engines to cover circumstances not
otherwise allowed by the original
certification or exemption. Note that
application of new exemption
provisions does not apply with respect
to actions that occur before the new
exemption applies. For example, you
may ask for a testing exemption for a
new or used engine that has already
been introduced into commerce under a
competition exemption, but the testing
exemption would not cover noncompetition use that occurred before we
approved the testing exemption.
■ 244. Section 1068.210 is amended by
revising the section heading and
paragraph (e) to read as follows:
§ 1068.210 Exempting test engines/
equipment.
*
*
*
*
(e) If we approve your request for a
testing exemption, we will send you a
letter or a memorandum describing the
basis and scope of the exemption. It will
also include any necessary terms and
conditions, which normally require you
to do the following:
(1) Stay within the scope of the
exemption.
(2) Create and maintain adequate
records that we may inspect.
(3) Add a permanent label to all
engines/equipment exempted under this
section, consistent with § 1068.45, with
at least the following items:
(i) The label heading ‘‘EMISSION
CONTROL INFORMATION’’.
(ii) Your corporate name and
trademark.
(iii) Engine displacement, family
identification, and model year of the
engine/equipment (as applicable), or
whom to contact for further information.
(iv) The statement: ‘‘THIS [engine,
equipment, vehicle, etc.] IS EXEMPT
UNDER 40 CFR 1068.210 OR 1068.215
FROM EMISSION STANDARDS AND
RELATED REQUIREMENTS.’’
(4) Tell us when the test program is
finished.
(5) Tell us the final disposition of the
engines/equipment.
■ 245. Section 1068.215 is amended by
revising the section heading and
paragraphs (a) and (c)(3)(iv) to read as
follows:
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§ 1068.215 Exempting manufacturerowned engines/equipment.
(a) You are eligible for this exemption
for manufacturer-owned engines/
equipment only if you are a certificate
holder. Any engine for which you meet
all applicable requirements under this
section is exempt without request.
*
*
*
*
*
(c) * * *
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(3) * * *
(iv) The statement: ‘‘THIS [engine,
equipment, vehicle, etc.] IS EXEMPT
UNDER 40 CFR 1068.210 OR 1068.215
FROM EMISSION STANDARDS AND
RELATED REQUIREMENTS.’’
■ 246. Section 1068.220 is revised to
read as follows:
§ 1068.220 Exempting display engines/
equipment.
(a) Anyone may request an exemption
for display engines/equipment.
(b) Nonconforming display engines/
equipment will be exempted if they are
used only for displays in the interest of
a business or the general public. This
exemption does not apply to engines/
equipment displayed for private use,
private collections, or any other purpose
we determine is inappropriate for a
display exemption.
(c) You may operate the exempted
engine/equipment, but only if we
approve specific operation that is part of
the display, or is necessary for the
display (possibly including operation
that is indirectly necessary for the
display). We may consider any relevant
factor in our approval process,
including the extent of the operation,
the overall emission impact, and
whether the engine/equipment meets
emission requirements of another
country.
(d) You may sell or lease the
exempted engine/equipment only with
our advance approval.
(e) To use this exemption, you must
add a permanent label to all engines/
equipment exempted under this section,
consistent with § 1068.45, with at least
the following items:
(1) The label heading ‘‘EMISSION
CONTROL INFORMATION’’.
(2) Your corporate name and
trademark.
(3) Engine displacement, family
identification, and model year of the
engine/equipment (as applicable), or
whom to contact for further information.
(4) The statement: ‘‘THIS [engine,
equipment, vehicle, etc.] IS EXEMPT
UNDER 40 CFR 1068.220 FROM
EMISSION STANDARDS AND
RELATED REQUIREMENTS.’’
(f) We may set other conditions for
approval of this exemption.
■ 247. Section 1068.225 is amended by
revising the section heading and
paragraph (d)(4) to read as follows:
§ 1068.225 Exempting engines/equipment
for national security.
*
*
*
*
*
(d) * * *
(4) The statement: ‘‘THIS [engine,
equipment, vehicle, etc.] HAS AN
EXEMPTION FOR NATIONAL
SECURITY UNDER 40 CFR 1068.225.’’
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248. Section 1068.230 is amended by
revising the section heading and
paragraphs (b) and (c) to read as follows:
■
§ 1068.230 Exempting engines/equipment
for export.
*
*
*
*
*
(b) Engines/equipment exported to a
country not covered by paragraph (a) of
this section are exempt from the
prohibited acts in this part without a
request. If you produce exempt engines/
equipment for export and any of them
are sold or offered for sale to an ultimate
purchaser in the United States, the
exemption is automatically void for
those engines/equipment, except as
specified in § 1068.201(i). You may
operate engines/equipment in the
United States only as needed to prepare
and deliver them for export.
(c) Except as specified in paragraph
(d) of this section, label exempted
engines/equipment (including shipping
containers if the label on the engine/
equipment will be obscured by the
container) with a label showing that
they are not certified for sale or use in
the United States. This label may be
permanent or removable. See § 1068.45
for provisions related to the use of
removable labels and applying labels to
containers without labeling individual
engines/equipment. The label must
include your corporate name and
trademark and the following statement:
‘‘THIS [engine, equipment, vehicle, etc.]
IS SOLELY FOR EXPORT AND IS
THEREFORE EXEMPT UNDER 40 CFR
1068.230 FROM U.S. EMISSION
STANDARDS AND RELATED
REQUIREMENTS.’’
*
*
*
*
*
■ 249. Section 1068.235 is revised to
read as follows:
§ 1068.235 Exempting nonroad engines/
equipment used solely for competition.
The following provisions apply for
nonroad engines/equipment, but not for
motor vehicles:
(a) New nonroad engines/equipment
you produce that are used solely for
competition are excluded from emission
standards. We may exempt (rather than
exclude) new nonroad engines/
equipment you produce that you intend
to be used solely for competition, where
we determine that such engines/
equipment are unlikely to be used
contrary to your intent. See the
standard-setting parts for specific
provisions where applicable. Note that
the definitions in the standard-setting
part may deem uncertified engines/
equipment to be new upon importation.
(b) If you modify any nonroad
engines/equipment after they have been
placed into service in the United States
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so they will be used solely for
competition, they are exempt without
request. This exemption applies only to
the prohibitions in § 1068.101(b)(1) and
(2) and are valid only as long as the
engine/equipment is used solely for
competition. You may not use the
provisions of this paragraph (b) to
circumvent the requirements that apply
to the sale of new competition engines
under the standard-setting part.
(c) If you modify any nonroad
engines/equipment under paragraph (b)
of this section, you must destroy the
original emission labels. If you loan,
lease, sell, or give any of these engines/
equipment to someone else, you must
tell the new owner (or operator, if
applicable) in writing that they may be
used only for competition.
■ 250. Section 1068.240 is amended by
revising the section heading and
paragraphs (c)(1), (c)(3), and (e)
introductory text to read as follows:
§ 1068.240
engines.
Exempting new replacement
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(c) * * *
(1) You may produce a limited
number of replacement engines under
this paragraph (c) representing 0.5
percent of your annual production
volumes for each category and
subcategory of engines identified in
Table 1 to this section (1.0 percent
through 2013). Calculate this number by
multiplying your annual U.S.-directed
production volume by 0.005 (or 0.01
through 2013) and rounding to the
nearest whole number. Determine the
appropriate production volume by
identifying the highest total annual
U.S.-directed production volume of
engines from the previous three model
years for all your certified engines from
each category or subcategory identified
in Table 1 to this section, as applicable.
In unusual circumstances, you may ask
us to base your production limits on
U.S.-directed production volume for a
model year more than three years prior.
You may include stationary engines and
exempted engines as part of your U.S.directed production volume. Include
U.S.-directed engines produced by any
affiliated companies and those from any
other companies you license to produce
engines for you.
*
*
*
*
*
(3) Send the Designated Compliance
Officer a report by September 30 of the
year following any year in which you
produced exempted replacement
engines under this paragraph (c). In
your report include the total number of
replacement engines you produce under
this paragraph (c) for each category or
subcategory, as appropriate, and the
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corresponding total production volumes
determined under paragraph (c)(1) of
this section. If you send us a report
under this paragraph (c)(3), you must
also include the total number of
replacement engines you produced
under paragraphs (b), (d), and (e) of this
section. Count exempt engines as
tracked under paragraph (b) of this
section only if you meet all the
requirements and conditions that apply
under paragraph (b) of this section by
the due date for the annual report. You
may include the information required
under this paragraph (c)(3) in
production reports required under the
standard-setting part.
*
*
*
*
*
(e) Partially complete current-tier
replacement engines. The provisions of
paragraph (d) of this section apply for
engines you produce from a current line
of certified engines or vehicles if you
ship them as partially complete engines
for replacement purposes. This applies
for engine-based and equipment-based
standards as follows:
*
*
*
*
*
■ 251. Section 1068.245 is amended by
revising the section heading and
paragraph (g)(4) to read as follows:
§ 1068.245 Temporary provisions
addressing hardship due to unusual
circumstances.
*
*
*
*
*
(g) * * *
(4) A statement describing the
engine’s status as an exempted engine:
(i) If the engine/equipment does not
meet any emission standards, add the
following statement:‘‘THIS [engine,
equipment, vehicle, etc.] IS EXEMPT
UNDER 40 CFR 1068.245 FROM
EMISSION STANDARDS AND
RELATED REQUIREMENTS.’’
(ii) If the engines/equipment meet
alternate emission standards as a
condition of an exemption under this
section, we may specify a different
statement to identify the alternate
emission standards.
■ 252. Section 1068.250 is amended by
revising the section heading and
paragraphs (c) introductory text and
(k)(4) and removing and reserving
paragraph (h).
The revisions read as follows:
§ 1068.250 Extending compliance
deadlines for small businesses under
hardship.
*
*
*
*
*
(c) Send the Designated Compliance
Officer a written request for an
extension as soon as possible before you
are in violation. In your request, show
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that all the following conditions and
requirements apply:
*
*
*
*
*
(k) * * *
(4) A statement describing the
engine’s status as an exempted engine:
(i) If the engine/equipment does not
meet any emission standards, add the
following statement:‘‘THIS [engine,
equipment, vehicle, etc.] IS EXEMPT
UNDER 40 CFR 1068.250 FROM
EMISSION STANDARDS AND
RELATED REQUIREMENTS.’’
(ii) If the engine/equipment meets
alternate emission standards as a
condition of an exemption under this
section, we may specify a different
statement to identify the alternate
emission standards.
■ 253. Section 1068.255 is amended by
revising the section heading and
paragraph (a) introductory text to read
as follows:
§ 1068.255 Exempting engines and fuelsystem components for hardship for
equipment manufacturers and secondary
engine manufacturers.
*
*
*
*
*
(a) Equipment exemption. As an
equipment manufacturer, you may ask
for approval to produce exempted
equipment for up to 12 months. We will
generally limit this to a single interval
up to 12 months in the first year that
new or revised emission standards
apply. Exemptions under this section
are not limited to small businesses.
Send the Designated Compliance Officer
a written request for an exemption
before you are in violation. In your
request, you must show you are not at
fault for the impending violation and
that you would face serious economic
hardship if we do not grant the
exemption. This exemption is not
available under this paragraph (a) if you
manufacture the engine or fuel-system
components you need for your own
equipment, or if complying engines or
fuel-system components are available
from other manufacturers that could be
used in your equipment, unless we
allow it elsewhere in this chapter. We
may impose other conditions, including
provisions to use products meeting less
stringent emission standards or to
recover the lost environmental benefit.
In determining whether to grant the
exemptions, we will consider all
relevant factors, including the
following:
*
*
*
*
*
■ 254. Section 1068.260 is revised to
read as follows:
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§ 1068.260 General provisions for selling
or shipping engines that are not yet in their
certified configuration.
Except as specified in paragraph (e) of
this section, all new engines in the
United States are presumed to be subject
to the prohibitions of § 1068.101, which
generally require that all new engines be
in a certified configuration before being
sold, offered for sale, or introduced or
delivered into commerce in the United
States or imported into the United
States. All emission-related components
generally need to be installed on an
engine for such an engine to be in its
certified configuration. This section
specifies clarifications and exemptions
related to these requirements for
engines. Except for paragraph (c) of this
section, the provisions of this section
generally apply for engine-based
standards but not for equipment-based
exhaust emission standards.
(a) The provisions of this paragraph
(a) apply for emission-related
components that cannot practically be
assembled before shipment because they
depend on equipment design
parameters.
(1) You do not need an exemption to
ship an engine that does not include
installation or assembly of certain
emission-related components, if those
components are shipped along with the
engine. For example, you may generally
ship aftertreatment devices along with
engines rather than installing them on
the engine before shipment. We may
require you to describe how you plan to
use this provision.
(2) You may ask us at the time of
certification for an exemption to allow
you to ship your engines without
emission-related components. If we
allow this, we may specify conditions
that we determine are needed to ensure
that shipping the engine without such
components will not result in the engine
being operated outside of its certified
configuration. You must identify
unshipped parts by specific part
numbers if they cannot be properly
characterized by performance
specification. For example, electronic
control units, turbochargers, and EGR
coolers must generally be identified by
part number. Parts that we believe can
be properly characterized by
performance specification include air
filters, noncatalyzed mufflers, and
charge air coolers. See paragraph (d) of
this section for additional provisions
that apply in certain circumstances.
(b) You do not need an exemption to
ship engines without specific
components if they are not emissionrelated components identified in
Appendix I of this part. For example,
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you may generally ship engines without
the following parts:
(1) Radiators needed to cool the
engine.
(2) Exhaust piping between the engine
and an aftertreatment device, between
two aftertreatment devices, or
downstream of the last aftertreatment
device.
(c) If you are a certificate holder,
partially complete engines/equipment
shipped between two of your facilities
are exempt, subject to the provisions of
this paragraph (c), as long as you
maintain ownership and control of the
engines/equipment until they reach
their destination. We may also allow
this where you do not maintain actual
ownership and control of the engines/
equipment (such as hiring a shipping
company to transport the engines) but
only if you demonstrate that the
engines/equipment will be transported
only according to your specifications.
See § 1068.261(b) for the provisions that
apply instead of this paragraph (c) for
the special case of integrated
manufacturers using the delegatedassembly exemption. Notify us of your
intent to use this exemption in your
application for certification, if
applicable. Your exemption is effective
when we grant your certificate. You may
alternatively request an exemption in a
separate submission; for example, this
would be necessary if you will not be
the certificate holder for the engines in
question. We may require you to take
specific steps to ensure that such
engines/equipment are in a certified
configuration before reaching the
ultimate purchaser. Note that since this
is a temporary exemption, it does not
allow you to sell or otherwise distribute
to ultimate purchasers an engine/
equipment in an uncertified
configuration with respect to exhaust
emissions. Note also that the exempted
engine/equipment remains new and
subject to emission standards (see
definition of ‘‘exempted’’ in § 1068.30)
until its title is transferred to the
ultimate purchaser or it otherwise
ceases to be new.
(d) See § 1068.261 for delegatedassembly provisions in which
certificate-holding manufacturers ship
engines that are not yet equipped with
certain emission-related components.
See § 1068.262 for provisions related to
manufacturers shipping partially
complete engines for which a secondary
engine manufacturer holds the
certificate of conformity.
(e) Engines used in hobby vehicles are
not presumed to be engines subject to
the prohibitions of § 1068.101. Hobby
vehicles are reduced-scale models of
vehicles that are not capable of
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transporting a person. Some gas turbine
engines are subject to the prohibitions of
§ 1068.101, but we do not presume that
all gas turbine engines are subject to
these prohibitions. Other engines that
do not have a valid certificate of
conformity or exemption when sold,
offered for sale, or introduced or
delivered into commerce in the United
States or imported into the United
States are presumed to be engines
subject to the prohibitions of § 1068.101
unless we determine that such engines
are excluded from the prohibitions of
§ 1068.101.
(f) While we presume that new nonhobby engines are subject to the
prohibitions of § 1068.101, we may
determine that a specific engine is not
subject to these prohibitions based on
information you provide or other
information that is available to us. For
example, the provisions of this part
1068 and the standard-setting parts
provide for exemptions in certain
circumstances. Also, some engines may
be subject to separate prohibitions
under subchapter C instead of the
prohibitions of § 1068.101.
■ 255. Section 1068.261 is amended by
revising the section heading and
paragraph (a) to read as follows:
§ 1068.261 Delegated assembly and other
provisions related to engines not yet in the
certified configuration.
*
*
*
*
*
(a) Shipping an engine separately
from an aftertreatment component that
you have specified as part of its certified
configuration will not be a violation of
the prohibitions in § 1068.101(a)(1)
subject to the provisions in this section.
We may also require that you apply
some or all of the provisions of this
section for other components if we
determine it is necessary to ensure that
shipping the engine without such
components will not result in the engine
being operated outside of its certified
configuration. In making this
determination, we will consider the
importance of the component for
controlling emissions and the likelihood
that equipment manufacturers will have
an incentive to disregard your emissionrelated installation instructions based
on any relevant factors, such as the cost
of the component and any real or
perceived expectation of a negative
impact on engine or equipment
performance.
*
*
*
*
*
■ 256. Section 1068.262 is revised to
read as follows:
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§ 1068.262 Shipment of engines to
secondary engine manufacturers.
This section specifies how
manufacturers may introduce into U.S.
commerce partially complete engines
that have an exemption or a certificate
of conformity held by a secondary
engine manufacturer and are not yet in
a certified configuration. See the
standard-setting part to determine
whether and how the provisions of this
section apply. (Note: See § 1068.261 for
provisions related to manufacturers
introducing into U.S. commerce
partially complete engines for which
they hold the certificate of conformity.)
This exemption is temporary as
described in paragraph (g) of this
section.
(a) The provisions of this section
generally apply where the secondary
engine manufacturer has substantial
control over the design and assembly of
emission controls. In unusual
circumstances we may allow other
secondary engine manufacturers to use
these provisions. In determining
whether a manufacturer has substantial
control over the design and assembly of
emission controls, we would consider
the degree to which the secondary
engine manufacturer would be able to
ensure that the engine will conform to
the regulations in its final configuration.
Such secondary engine manufacturers
may finish assembly of partially
complete engines in the following cases:
(1) You obtain an engine that is not
fully assembled with the intent to
manufacture a complete engine.
(2) You obtain an engine with the
intent to modify it before it reaches the
ultimate purchaser.
(3) You obtain an engine with the
intent to install it in equipment that will
be subject to equipment-based
standards.
(b) Manufacturers may introduce into
U.S. commerce partially complete
engines as described in this section if
they have a written request for such
engines from a secondary engine
manufacturer that has certified the
engine and will finish the engine
assembly. The written request must
include a statement that the secondary
engine manufacturer has a certificate of
conformity for the engine and identify a
valid engine family name associated
with each engine model ordered (or the
basis for an exemption if applicable, as
specified in paragraph (e) of this
section). The original engine
manufacturer must apply a removable
label meeting the requirements of
§ 1068.45 that identifies the corporate
name of the original manufacturer and
states that the engine is exempt under
the provisions of § 1068.262. The name
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of the certifying manufacturer must also
be on the label or, alternatively, on the
bill of lading that accompanies the
engines during shipment. The original
engine manufacturer may not apply a
permanent emission control information
label identifying the engine’s eventual
status as a certified engine.
(c) If you are the secondary engine
manufacturer and you will hold the
certificate, you must include the
following information in your
application for certification:
(1) Identify the original engine
manufacturer of the partially complete
engine or of the complete engine you
will modify.
(2) Describe briefly how and where
final assembly will be completed.
Specify how you have the ability to
ensure that the engines will conform to
the regulations in their final
configuration. (Note: Paragraph (a) of
this section prohibits using the
provisions of this section unless you
have substantial control over the design
and assembly of emission controls.)
(3) State unconditionally that you will
not distribute the engines without
conforming to all applicable regulations.
(d) If you are a secondary engine
manufacturer and you are already a
certificate holder for other families, you
may receive shipment of partially
complete engines after you apply for a
certificate of conformity but before the
certificate’s effective date. In this case,
all the provisions of § 1068.103(c)(1)
through (3) apply. This exemption
allows the original manufacturer to ship
engines after you have applied for a
certificate of conformity. Manufacturers
may introduce into U.S. commerce
partially complete engines as described
in this paragraph (d) if they have a
written request for such engines from a
secondary engine manufacturer stating
that the application for certification has
been submitted (instead of the
information we specify in paragraph (b)
of this section). We may set additional
conditions under this paragraph (d) to
prevent circumvention of regulatory
requirements. Consistent with
§ 1068.103(c), we may also revoke an
exemption under this paragraph (d) if
we have reason to believe that the
application for certification will not be
approved or that the engines will
otherwise not reach a certified
configuration before reaching the
ultimate purchaser. This may require
that you export the engines.
(e) The provisions of this section also
apply for shipping partially complete
engines if the engine is covered by a
valid exemption and there is no valid
engine family name that could be used
to represent the engine model. Unless
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40727
we approve otherwise in advance, you
may do this only when shipping engines
to secondary engine manufacturers that
are certificate holders. In this case, the
secondary engine manufacturer must
identify the regulatory cite identifying
the applicable exemption instead of a
valid engine family name when ordering
engines from the original engine
manufacturer.
(f) If secondary engine manufacturers
determine after receiving an engine
under this section that the engine will
not be covered by a certificate or
exemption as planned, they may ask us
to allow for shipment of the engines
back to the original engine manufacturer
or to another secondary engine
manufacturer. This might occur in the
case of an incorrect shipment or excess
inventory. We may modify the
provisions of this section as appropriate
to address these cases.
(g) Both original and secondary
engine manufacturers must keep the
records described in this section for at
least five years, including the written
request for engines and the bill of lading
for each shipment (if applicable). The
written request is deemed to be a
submission to EPA and is thus subject
to the reporting requirements of 40 CFR
1068.101(a)(2).
(h) These provisions are intended
only to allow secondary engine
manufacturers to obtain or transport
engines in the specific circumstances
identified in this section so any
exemption under this section expires
when the engine reaches the point of
final assembly identified in paragraph
(c)(2) of this section.
(i) For purposes of this section, an
allowance to introduce partially
complete engines into U.S. commerce
includes a conditional allowance to sell,
introduce, or deliver such engines into
commerce in the United States or
import them into the United States. It
does not include a general allowance to
offer such partially complete engines for
sale because this exemption is intended
to apply only for cases in which the
certificate holder already has an
arrangement to purchase the engines
from the original engine manufacturer.
This exemption does not allow the
original engine manufacturer to
subsequently offer the engines for sale
to a different manufacturer who will
hold the certificate unless that second
manufacturer has also complied with
the requirements of this part. The
exemption does not apply for any
individual engines that are not labeled
as specified in this section or which are
shipped to someone who is not a
certificate holder.
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(j) We may suspend, revoke, or void
an exemption under this section, as
follows:
(1) We may suspend or revoke your
exemption if you fail to meet the
requirements of this section. We may
suspend or revoke an exemption related
to a specific secondary engine
manufacturer if that manufacturer sells
engines that are in not in a certified
configuration in violation of the
regulations. We may disallow this
exemption for future shipments to the
affected secondary engine manufacturer
or set additional conditions to ensure
that engines will be assembled in the
certified configuration.
(2) We may void an exemption for all
the affected engines if you intentionally
submit false or incomplete information
or fail to keep and provide to EPA the
records required by this section.
(3) The exemption is void for an
engine that is shipped to a company that
is not a certificate holder or for an
engine that is shipped to a secondary
engine manufacturer that is not in
compliance with the requirements of
this section.
(4) The secondary engine
manufacturer may be liable for causing
a prohibited act if voiding the
exemption is due to its own actions.
(k) No exemption is needed to import
equipment that does not include an
engine. No exemption from exhaust
emission standards is available under
this section for equipment subject to
equipment-based standards if the engine
has been installed.
■ 257. Section 1068.265 is amended by
revising the section heading to read as
follows:
§ 1068.265 Provisions for engines/
equipment conditionally exempted from
certification.
*
*
*
*
*
Subpart D—Imports
258. Section 1068.301 is amended by
revising the section heading and
paragraphs (b) and (d) and adding
paragraph (e) to read as follows:
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§ 1068.301 General provisions for
importing engines/equipment.
*
*
*
*
*
(b) In general, engines/equipment that
you import must be covered by a
certificate of conformity unless they
were built before emission standards
started to apply. This subpart describes
the limited cases where we allow
importation of exempt or excluded
engines/equipment. If an engine has an
exemption from exhaust emission
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standards, this allows you to import the
equipment under the same exemption.
*
*
*
*
*
(d) Complete the appropriate EPA
declaration before importing any
engines or equipment. These forms may
be submitted and stored electronically
and are available on the Internet at
https://www.epa.gov/OTAQ/imports/ or
by phone at 734–214–4100. Importers
must keep these records for five years
and make them available promptly upon
request.
(e) The standard-setting part may
define uncertified engines/equipment to
be ‘‘new’’ upon importation, whether or
not they have already been placed into
service. This may affect how the
provisions of this subpart apply for your
engines/equipment. (See the definition
of ‘‘new’’ and other relevant terms in the
standard-setting part.)
■ 259. Section 1068.305 is amended by
revising paragraphs (b)(1) and (2) to read
as follows:
§ 1068.305 How do I get an exemption or
exclusion for imported engines/equipment?
*
*
*
*
*
(b) * * *
(1) Give your name, address, and
telephone number.
(2) Give the engine/equipment
owner’s name, address, and telephone
number.
*
*
*
*
*
■ 260. Section 1068.310 is amended by
revising the section heading and
paragraph (a) to read as follows:
§ 1068.310 Exclusions for imported
engines/equipment.
*
*
*
*
*
(a) Engines/equipment used solely for
competition. Engines/equipment that
you demonstrate will be used solely for
competition are excluded from the
restrictions on imports in § 1068.301(b),
but only if they are properly labeled.
See the standard-setting part for
provisions related to this demonstration
that may apply. Section 1068.101(b)(4)
prohibits anyone from using these
excluded engines/equipment for
purposes other than competition. We
may waive the labeling requirement or
allow a removable label for engines/
equipment that are being temporarily
imported for one or more specific
competition events.
*
*
*
*
*
■ 261. Section 1068.315 is amended by
revising the section heading and
paragraph (i) to read as follows:
§ 1068.315 Permanent exemptions for
imported engines/equipment.
*
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*
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*
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(i) Ancient engine/equipment
exemption. If you are not the original
engine/equipment manufacturer, you
may import nonconforming engines/
equipment that are subject to a
standard-setting part and were first
manufactured at least 21 years earlier, as
long as they are still substantially in
their original configurations.
■ 262. Section 1068.325 is amended by
revising the section heading,
introductory text, and paragraphs (a),
(c), (d), and (j)(5) to read as follows:
§ 1068.325 Temporary exemptions for
imported engines/equipment.
You may import engines/equipment
under certain temporary exemptions,
subject to the conditions in this section.
We may ask U.S. Customs and Border
Protection to require a specific bond
amount to make sure you comply with
the requirements of this subpart. You
may not sell or lease one of these
engines/equipment while it is in the
United States except as specified in this
section or § 1068.201(i). You must
eventually export the engine/equipment
as we describe in this section unless it
conforms to a certificate of conformity
or it qualifies for one of the permanent
exemptions in § 1068.315 or the
standard-setting part.
(a) Exemption for repairs or
alterations. You may temporarily import
nonconforming engines/equipment
under bond solely for repair or
alteration, subject to our advance
approval as described in paragraph (j) of
this section. You may operate the
engine/equipment in the United States
only as necessary to repair it, alter it, or
ship it to or from the service location.
Export the engine/equipment directly
after servicing is complete, or confirm
that it has been destroyed.
*
*
*
*
*
(c) Display exemption. You may
temporarily import nonconforming
engines/equipment under bond for
display if you follow the requirements
of § 1068.220, subject to our advance
approval as described in paragraph (j) of
this section. This exemption expires one
year after you import the engine/
equipment, unless we approve your
request for an extension. The engine/
equipment must be exported (or
destroyed) by the time the exemption
expires or directly after the display
concludes, whichever comes first.
(d) Export exemption. You may
temporarily import nonconforming
engines/equipment to export them, as
described in § 1068.230. Label the
engine/equipment as described in
§ 1068.230. You may sell or lease the
engines/equipment for operation
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outside the United States consistent
with the provisions of § 1068.230.
*
*
*
*
*
(j) * * *
(5) Acknowledge that EPA
enforcement officers may conduct
inspections or testing as allowed under
the Clean Air Act.
*
*
*
*
*
■ 263. Section 1068.335 is amended by
revising the section heading to read as
follows:
§ 1068.335
Penalties for violations.
*
*
*
*
*
■ 264. Section 1068.360 is amended by
revising the section heading and
paragraph (b) to read as follows:
§ 1068.360 Restrictions for assigning a
model year to imported engines and
equipment.
*
*
*
*
*
(b) This paragraph (b) applies for the
importation of engines and equipment
that have not been placed into service,
where the importation occurs in any
calendar year that is more than one year
after the named model year of the
engine or equipment when emission
control requirements applying to
current engines are different than for
engines or equipment in the named
model year, unless they are imported
under special provisions for
Independent Commercial Importers as
allowed under the standard-setting part.
Regardless of what other provisions of
this subchapter U specify for the model
year of the engine or equipment, such
engines and equipment are deemed to
have an applicable model year no more
than one year earlier than the calendar
year in which they are imported. For
example, a new engine identified as a
2007 model-year product that is
imported on January 31, 2010 will be
treated as a 2009 model-year engine; the
same engine will be treated as a 2010
model-year engine if it is imported any
time in calendar year 2011.
*
*
*
*
*
we may require manufacturers other
than the certificate holder to conduct or
participate in the audit as necessary. For
products subject to equipment-based
standards, but tested using engine-based
test procedures, this subpart applies to
the engines and/or the equipment, as
applicable. Otherwise this subpart
applies to engines for products subject
to engine-based standards and to
equipment for products subject to
equipment-based standards.
(b) If we send you a signed test order,
you must follow its directions and the
provisions of this subpart. We may tell
you where to test the engines/
equipment. This may be where you
produce the engines/equipment or any
other emission testing facility. You are
responsible for all testing costs whether
the testing is conducted at your facility
or another facility.
(c) If we select one or more of your
families for a selective enforcement
audit, we will send the test order to the
person who signed the application for
certification or we will deliver it in
person.
(d) If we do not select a testing
facility, notify the Designated
Compliance Officer within one working
day of receiving the test order where
you will test your engines/equipment.
(e) You must do everything we require
in the audit without delay. We may
suspend or revoke your certificate of
conformity for the affected engine
families if you do not fulfill your
obligations under this subpart.
■ 266. Section 1068.405 is amended by
revising paragraph (a)(1) to read as
follows:
§ 1068.405
What is in a test order?
(a) * * *
(1) The family we have identified for
testing. We may also specify individual
configurations.
*
*
*
*
*
■ 267. Section 1068.415 is amended by
revising paragraphs (c) and (d) to read
as follows:
Subpart E—Selective Enforcement
Auditing
§ 1068.415 How do I test my engines/
equipment?
265. Section 1068.401 is revised to
read as follows:
*
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■
§ 1068.401 What is a selective
enforcement audit?
(a) We may conduct or require you as
a certificate holder to conduct emission
tests on production engines/equipment
in a selective enforcement audit. This
requirement is independent of any
requirement for you to routinely test
production-line engines/equipment.
Where there are multiple entities
meeting the definition of manufacturer,
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*
*
*
*
(c) Test at least two engines/
equipment in each 24-hour period
(including void tests). However, for
engines with maximum engine power
above 560 kW, you may test one engine
per 24-hour period. If you request and
justify it, we may approve a lower
testing rate.
(d) For exhaust emissions, accumulate
service on test engines/equipment at a
minimum rate of 6 hours per engine or
piece of equipment during each 24-hour
period; however, service accumulation
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40729
to stabilize an engine’s emission levels
may not take longer than eight days. The
first 24-hour period for service
accumulation begins when you finish
preparing an engine or piece of
equipment for testing. The minimum
service accumulation rate does not
apply on weekends or holidays. We may
approve a longer stabilization period or
a lower service accumulation rate if you
request and justify it. We may require
you to accumulate hours more rapidly
than the minimum rate, as appropriate.
Plan your service accumulation to allow
testing at the rate specified in paragraph
(c) of this section. Select operation for
accumulating operating hours on your
test engines/equipment to represent
normal in-use operation for the family.
*
*
*
*
*
■ 268. Section 1068.420 is amended by
revising paragraphs (b) and (e) to read
as follows:
§ 1068.420 How do I know when my engine
family fails an SEA?
*
*
*
*
*
(b) Continue testing engines/
equipment until you reach a pass
decision for all pollutants or a fail
decision for one pollutant, as described
in paragraph (c) of this section.
*
*
*
*
*
(e) If you reach a pass decision for one
pollutant, but need to continue testing
for another pollutant, we will not use
these later test results for the pollutant
with the pass decision as part of the
SEA.
*
*
*
*
*
■ 269. Section 1068.425 is amended by
revising paragraph (b) to read as follows:
§ 1068.425 What happens if one of my
production-line engines/equipment exceeds
the emission standards?
*
*
*
*
*
(b) You may ask for a hearing relative
to the suspended certificate of
conformity for the failing engine/
equipment as specified in subpart G of
this part.
■ 270. Section 1068.430 is amended by
revising paragraph (c) to read as follows:
§ 1068.430
an SEA?
*
What happens if a family fails
*
*
*
*
(c) You may ask for a hearing as
described in subpart G of this part up to
15 days after we suspend the certificate
for a family. If we agree that we used
erroneous information in deciding to
suspend the certificate before a hearing
is held, we will reinstate the certificate.
■ 271. Section 1068.450 is amended by
revising paragraph (b) to read as follows:
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What records must I send to
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(b) We may ask you to add
information to your written report, so
we can determine whether your new
engines/equipment conform to the
requirements of this subpart.
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Subpart F—Reporting Defects and
Recalling Engines/Equipment
272. Section 1068.501 is amended by
revising paragraphs (a)(1)(iv), (a)(8), and
(b)(1)(iii) to read as follows:
■
§ 1068.501 How do I report emissionrelated defects?
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(a) * * *
(1) * * *
(iv) Any other component whose
failure would commonly increase
emissions of any regulated pollutant
without significantly degrading engine/
equipment performance.
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(8) Send all reports required by this
section to the Designated Compliance
Officer.
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(b) * * *
(1) * * *
(iii) You receive any other
information for which good engineering
judgment would indicate the
component or system may be defective,
such as information from dealers, fieldservice personnel, equipment
manufacturers, hotline complaints, inuse testing, or engine diagnostic
systems.
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■ 273. Section 1068.505 is amended by
revising paragraphs (a), (c), and (g) to
read as follows:
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§ 1068.505
work?
How does the recall program
(a) If we make a determination that a
substantial number of properly
maintained and used engines/
equipment do not conform to the
regulations of this chapter during their
useful life, you must submit a plan to
remedy the nonconformity of your
engines/equipment. We will notify you
of our determination in writing. Our
notice will identify the class or category
of engines/equipment affected and
describe how we reached our
conclusion. If this happens, you must
meet the requirements and follow the
instructions in this subpart. You must
remedy at your expense noncompliant
engines/equipment that have been
properly maintained and used, as
described in § 1068.510(a)(7), regardless
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of their age or extent of service
accumulation at the time of repair. You
may not transfer this expense to a dealer
(or equipment manufacturer for enginebased standards) through a franchise or
other agreement.
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(c) Unless we withdraw the
determination of noncompliance, you
must respond to it by sending a
remedial plan to the Designated
Compliance Officer. We will designate a
date by which you must send us the
remedial plan; the designated date will
be no sooner than 45 days after we
notify you, and no sooner than 30 days
after a hearing.
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(g) For purposes of recall, ‘‘owner’’
means someone who owns an engine or
piece of equipment affected by a
remedial plan.
■ 274. Section 1068.510 is amended by
revising paragraph (a)(6) to read as
follows:
§ 1068.510 How do I prepare and apply my
remedial plan?
(a) * * *
(6) How you will notify owners;
include a copy of any notification
letters.
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■ 275. Section 1068.515 is amended by
revising paragraph (c) to read as follows:
§ 1068.515 How do I mark or label repaired
engines/equipment?
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(c) On the label, designate the specific
recall campaign and identify the facility
where you repaired or inspected the
engine/equipment.
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■ 276. Section 1068.530 is amended by
revising the introductory text to read as
follows:
§ 1068.530
What records must I keep?
We may review your records at any
time so it is important that you keep
required information readily available.
Keep records associated with your recall
campaign for five years after you send
the last report we require under
§ 1068.525(b). Organize and maintain
your records as described in this
section.
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■ 277. Subpart G is revised to read as
follows:
Subpart G—Hearings
Sec.
1068.601 Overview.
1068.610 Request for hearing—suspending,
revoking, or voiding a certificate of
conformity.
1068.615 Request for hearing— denied
application for certification,
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automatically suspended certificate, and
determinations related to certification.
1068.620 Request for hearing—recall.
1068.625 Request for hearing—
nonconformance penalties.
1068.650 Procedures for informal hearings.
Subpart G—Hearings
§ 1068.601
Overview.
The regulations of this chapter
involve numerous provisions that may
result in EPA making a decision or
judgment that you may consider adverse
to your interests and that either limits
your business activities or requires you
to pay penalties. As specified in the
regulations, this might involve an
opportunity for an informal hearing or
a formal hearing that follows specific
procedures and is directed by a
Presiding Officer. The regulations
generally specify when we would hold
a hearing. In limited circumstances, we
may grant a request for a hearing related
to adverse decisions regarding
regulatory provisions for which we do
not specifically describe the possibility
of asking for a hearing.
(a) If you request a hearing regarding
our decision to assess administrative
penalties under § 1068.125, we will
hold a formal hearing according to the
provisions of 40 CFR 22.1 through 22.32
and 22.34.
(b) For other issues where the
regulation allows for a hearing in
response to an adverse decision, you
may request an informal hearing as
described in § 1068.650. Sections
1068.610 through 1068.625 describe
when and how to request an informal
hearing under various circumstances.
(c) The time limits we specify are
calendar days and include weekends
and holidays, except that a deadline
falling on a Saturday, Sunday, or a
federal holiday is understood to move to
the next business day. Your filing will
be considered timely based on the
following criteria relative to the
specified deadline:
(1) The postmarked date for items sent
by U.S. mail must be on or before the
specified date.
(2) The ship date for items sent from
any location within the United States by
commercial carriers must be on or
before the specified date.
(3) Items sent by mail or courier from
outside the United States must be
received by the specified date.
(4) The time and date stamp on an
email message must be at or before 5:00
p.m. on the specified date.
(5) The time and date stamp on faxed
pages must be at or before 5:00 p.m. on
the specified date.
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(6) Hand-delivered items must be
received by the appropriate personnel
by 3:00 p.m. on the specified date.
(d) See the standard-setting part for
additional information. If the standardsetting part specifies any provisions that
are contrary to those described in this
subpart, the provisions of the standardsetting part apply instead of those
described in this subpart.
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§ 1068.610 Request for hearing—
suspending, revoking, or voiding a
certificate of conformity.
(a) You may request an informal
hearing as described in § 1068.650 if
you disagree with our decision to
suspend, revoke, or void a certificate of
conformity. We will approve your
request for an informal hearing under
this paragraph (a) if we find that your
request raises a substantial factual issue
in the decision we made that, if
addressed differently, could alter the
outcome of that decision.
(b) If you request a hearing regarding
the outcome of a testing regimen with
established evaluation criteria, such as
selective enforcement audits or routine
production-line testing, we will hold a
hearing limited to the following issues
that are relevant to your circumstances:
(1) Whether tests were conducted in
accordance with applicable regulations.
(2) Whether test equipment was
properly calibrated and functioning.
(3) Whether specified sampling
procedures were followed to select
engines/equipment for testing.
(4) Whether there is a basis for
determining that the problems
identified do not apply for engines/
equipment produced at plants other
than the one from which engines/
equipment were selected for testing.
(c) You must send your hearing
request in writing to the Designated
Compliance Officer no later than 30
days after we notify you of our decision
to suspend, revoke, or void your
certificate, or by some later deadline we
specify. If the deadline passes, we may
nevertheless grant you a hearing at our
discretion.
(d) Your hearing request must include
the following information:
(1) Identify the classes or categories of
engines/equipment that will be the
subject of the hearing.
(2) State briefly which issues you will
raise at the hearing for each affected
class or category of engines/equipment.
(3) Specify why you believe the
hearing will conclude in your favor for
each of the issues you will raise.
(4) Summarize the evidence
supporting your position on each of the
issues you will raise and include any
supporting data.
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§ 1068.615 Request for hearing—denied
application for certification, automatically
suspended certificate, and determinations
related to certification.
(a) You may request an informal
hearing as described in § 1068.650 if we
deny your application for a certificate of
conformity, if your certificate of
conformity is automatically suspended
under the regulations, or if you disagree
with determinations we make as part of
the certification process. For example,
you might disagree with our
determinations regarding adjustable
parameters under § 1068.50 or regarding
your good engineering judgment under
§ 1068.5.
(b) You must send your hearing
request in writing to the Designated
Compliance Officer no later than 30
days after we notify you of our decision,
or by some later deadline we specify. If
the specified deadline passes, we may
nevertheless grant you a hearing at our
discretion.
(c) Your hearing request must include
the information specified in
§ 1068.610(d).
(d) We will approve your request for
an informal hearing if we find that your
request raises a substantial factual issue
in the decision we made that, if
addressed differently, could alter the
outcome of that decision.
§ 1068.620
Request for hearing—recall.
(a) You may request an informal
hearing as described in § 1068.650 if
you disagree with our decision to order
a recall.
(b) You must send your hearing
request in writing to the Designated
Compliance Officer no later than 45
days after we notify you of our decision,
or by some later deadline we specify. If
the specified deadline passes, we may
nevertheless grant you a hearing at our
discretion.
(c) Your hearing request must include
the information specified in
§ 1068.610(d).
§ 1068.625 Request for hearing—
nonconformance penalties.
(a) You may request an informal
hearing as described in § 1068.650 if
you disagree with our determination of
compliance level or penalty calculation
or both. The hearing will address only
whether the compliance level or penalty
was determined in accordance with the
regulations.
(b) Send a request for a hearing in
writing to the Designated Compliance
Officer within the following time frame,
as applicable:
(1) No later than 15 days after we
notify you that we have approved a
nonconformance penalty under this
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subpart if the compliance level is in the
allowable range of nonconformity.
(2) No later than 15 days after
completion of the Production
Compliance Audit if the compliance
level exceeds the upper limit.
(3) No later than 15 days after we
notify you of an adverse decision for all
other cases.
(c) If you miss the specified deadline
in paragraph (b) of this section, we may
nevertheless grant you a hearing at our
discretion.
(d) Your hearing request must include
the information specified in
§ 1068.610(d).
(e) We will approve your request for
an informal hearing if we find that your
request raises a substantial factual issue
in the decision we made that, if
addressed differently, could alter the
outcome of that decision.
§ 1068.650
hearings.
Procedures for informal
(a) The following provisions apply for
arranging the hearing:
(1) After granting your request for an
informal hearing, we will designate a
Presiding Officer for the hearing.
(2) The Presiding Officer will select
the time and place for the hearing. The
hearing must be held as soon as
practicable for all parties involved.
(3) The Presiding Officer may require
that all argument and presentation of
evidence be concluded by a certain date
after commencement of the hearing.
(b) The Presiding Officer will
establish a paper or electronic hearing
record, which may be made available for
inspection. The hearing record includes,
but is not limited to, the following
materials:
(1) All documents relating to the
application for certification, including
the certificate of conformity itself, if
applicable.
(2) Your request for a hearing and the
accompanying supporting data.
(3) Correspondence and other data
relevant to the hearing.
(4) The Presiding Officer’s written
decision regarding the subject of the
hearing, together with any
accompanying material.
(c) You may appear in person or you
may be represented by counsel or by
any other representative you designate.
(d) The Presiding Officer may arrange
for a prehearing conference, either in
response to a request from any party or
at his or her own discretion. The
Presiding Officer will select the time
and place for the prehearing conference.
The Presiding Officer will summarize
the results of the conference and
include the written summary as part of
the record. The prehearing conference
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may involve consideration of the
following items:
(1) Simplification of the issues.
(2) Stipulations, admissions of fact,
and the introduction of documents.
(3) Limitation of the number of expert
witnesses.
(4) Possibility of reaching an
agreement to resolve any or all of the
issues in dispute.
(5) Any other matters that may aid in
expeditiously and successfully
concluding the hearing.
(e) Hearings will be conducted as
follows:
(1) The Presiding Officer will conduct
informal hearings in an orderly and
expeditious manner. The parties may
offer oral or written evidence; however,
the Presiding Officer may exclude
evidence that is irrelevant, immaterial,
or repetitious.
(2) Witnesses will not be required to
testify under oath; however, the
Presiding Officer must make clear that
18 U.S.C. 1001 specifies civil and
criminal penalties for knowingly
making false statements or
representations or using false
documents in any matter within the
jurisdiction of EPA or any other
department or agency of the United
States.
(3) Any witness may be examined or
cross-examined by the Presiding Officer,
by you, or by any other parties.
(4) Written transcripts must be made
for all hearings. Anyone may purchase
copies of transcripts from the reporter.
(f) The Presiding Officer will make a
final decision with written findings,
conclusions and supporting rationale on
all the substantial factual issues
presented in the record. The findings,
conclusions, and written decision must
be provided to the parties and made a
part of the record.
■ 278. Appendix I to part 1068 is
amended by revising paragraph IV to
read as follows:
APPENDIX I TO PART 1068—
EMISSION–RELATED COMPONENTS
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IV. Emission-related components also
include any other part whose primary
purpose is to reduce emissions or whose
failure would commonly increase
emissions without significantly
degrading engine/equipment
performance.
Department of Transportation
National Highway Traffic Safety
Administration
49 CFR Chapter V
In consideration of the foregoing,
under the authority of 49 U.S.C. 322, 5
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U.S.C. 552, 49 U.S.C. 30166, 49 U.S.C.
30167, 49 U.S.C. 32307, 49 U.S.C.
32505, 49 U.S.C. 32708, 49 U.S.C.
32910, 49 U.S.C. 33116, 49 U.S.C.
32901, 49 U.S.C. 32902, 49 U.S.C.
30101, 49 U.S.C. 32905, 49 U.S.C.
32906, and delegation of authority at 49
CFR 1.95, NHTSA amends 49 CFR
chapter V as follows:
PART 512—CONFIDENTIAL BUSINESS
INFORMATION
279. Revise the authority citation for
part 512 to read as follows:
■
Authority: 49 U.S.C. 322; 5 U.S.C. 552; 49
U.S.C. 30166; 49 U.S.C. 30167; 49 U.S.C.
32307; 49 U.S.C. 32505; 49 U.S.C. 32708; 49
U.S.C. 32910; 49 U.S.C. 33116; delegation of
authority at 49 CFR 1.95.
§ 512.7 Where should I send the
information for which I am requesting
confidentiality?
Except for requests pertaining to
information submitted under 49 CFR
part 537, any claim for confidential
treatment must be submitted to the
Chief Counsel of the National Highway
Traffic Safety Administration, 1200 New
Jersey Avenue SE., West Building W41–
227, Washington, DC 20590. Requests
for confidential treatment for
information submitted under 49 CFR
part 537 shall accompany the
submission and be provided to NHTSA
through the electronic portal identified
in 49 CFR 537.5(a)(4) or through an
email address that will be provided and
maintained by NHTSA.
PART 523—VEHICLE CLASSIFICATION
280. Amend § 512.6 by revising
paragraph (c)(2) to read as follows:
■
§ 512.6 How should I prepare documents
when submitting a claim for confidentiality?
Authority: 49 U.S.C. 32901; delegation of
authority at 49 CFR 1.95.
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(c) * * *
(2) Confidential portions of electronic
files submitted in other than their
original format must be marked
‘‘Confidential Business Information’’ or
‘‘Entire Page Confidential Business
Information’’ at the top of each page. If
only a portion of a page is claimed to
be confidential, that portion shall be
designated by brackets. Files submitted
in their original format that cannot be
marked as described above must, to the
extent practicable, identify confidential
information by alternative markings
using existing attributes within the file
or means that are accessible through use
of the file’s associated program. When
alternative markings are used, such as
font changes or symbols, the submitter
must use one method consistently for
electronic files of the same type within
the same submission. The method used
for such markings must be described in
the request for confidentiality. Files and
materials that cannot be marked
internally, such as video clips or
executable files or files provided in a
format specifically requested by the
agency, shall be renamed prior to
submission so the words ‘‘Confidential
Bus Info’’ appears in the file name or,
if that is not practicable, the characters
‘‘Conf Bus Info’’ or ‘‘CBI’’ appear. In all
cases, a submitter shall provide an
electronic copy of its request for
confidential treatment on any medium
containing confidential information,
except where impracticable.
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■ 281. Revise § 512.7 to read as follows:
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282. Revise the authority citation for
part 523 to read as follows:
283. Revise § 523.2 to read as follows:
§ 523.2
Definitions.
Ambulance has the meaning given in
40 CFR 86.1803.
Approach angle means the smallest
angle, in a plane side view of an
automobile, formed by the level surface
on which the automobile is standing
and a line tangent to the front tire static
loaded radius arc and touching the
underside of the automobile forward of
the front tire.
Axle clearance means the vertical
distance from the level surface on which
an automobile is standing to the lowest
point on the axle differential of the
automobile.
Base tire (for passenger automobiles,
light trucks, and medium duty
passenger vehicles) means the tire size
specified as standard equipment by the
manufacturer on each unique
combination of a vehicle’s footprint and
model type. Standard equipment is
defined in 40 CFR 86.1803.
Basic vehicle frontal area is used as
defined in 40 CFR 86.1803 for passenger
automobiles, light trucks, medium duty
passenger vehicles and Class 2b through
3 pickup trucks and vans. For heavyduty tracts and vocational vehicles, it
has the meaning given in 40 CFR
1037.801.
Breakover angle means the
supplement of the largest angle, in the
plan side view of an automobile that can
be formed by two lines tangent to the
front and rear static loaded radii arcs
and intersecting at a point on the
underside of the automobile.
Cab-complete vehicle means a vehicle
that is first sold as an incomplete
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vehicle that substantially includes the
vehicle cab section as defined in 40 CFR
1037.801. For example, vehicles known
commercially as chassis-cabs, cabchassis, box-deletes, bed-deletes, and
cut-away vans are considered cabcomplete vehicles. A cab includes a
steering column and a passenger
compartment. Note that a vehicle
lacking some components of the cab is
a cab-complete vehicle if it substantially
includes the cab.
Cargo-carrying volume means the
luggage capacity or cargo volume index,
as appropriate, and as those terms are
defined in 40 CFR 600.315–08, in the
case of automobiles to which either of
these terms apply. With respect to
automobiles to which neither of these
terms apply, ‘‘cargo-carrying volume’’
means the total volume in cubic feet,
rounded to the nearest 0.1 cubic feet, of
either an automobile’s enclosed
nonseating space that is intended
primarily for carrying cargo and is not
accessible from the passenger
compartment, or the space intended
primarily for carrying cargo bounded in
the front by a vertical plane that is
perpendicular to the longitudinal
centerline of the automobile and passes
through the rearmost point on the
rearmost seat and elsewhere by the
automobile’s interior surfaces.
Class 2b vehicles are vehicles with a
gross vehicle weight rating (GVWR)
ranging from 8,501 to 10,000 pounds.
Class 3 through Class 8 vehicles are
vehicles with a gross vehicle weight
rating (GVWR) of 10,001 pounds or
more as defined in 49 CFR 565.15.
Commercial medium- and heavy-duty
on-highway vehicle means an onhighway vehicle with a gross vehicle
weight rating of 10,000 pounds or more
as defined in 49 U.S.C. 32901(a)(7).
Complete vehicle has the meaning
given to completed vehicle as defined in
49 CFR 567.3.
Curb weight has the meaning given in
49 CFR 571.3.
Dedicated vehicle has the same
meaning as dedicated automobile as
defined in 49 U.S.C. 32901(a)(8).
Departure angle means the smallest
angle, in a plane side view of an
automobile, formed by the level surface
on which the automobile is standing
and a line tangent to the rear tire static
loaded radius arc and touching the
underside of the automobile rearward of
the rear tire.
Dual-fueled vehicle (multi-fuel, or
flexible-fuel vehicle) has the same
meaning as dual fueled automobile as
defined in 49 U.S.C. 32901(a)(9).
Electric vehicle means a vehicle that
does not include an engine, and is
powered solely by an external source of
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electricity and/or solar power. Note that
this does not include electric hybrid or
fuel-cell vehicles that use a chemical
fuel such as gasoline, diesel fuel, or
hydrogen. Electric vehicles may also be
referred to as all-electric vehicles to
distinguish them from hybrid vehicles.
Emergency vehicle means one of the
following:
(1) For passenger cars, light trucks
and medium duty passenger vehicles,
emergency vehicle has the meaning in
49 U.S.C. 32902(e).
(2) For heavy-duty vehicles,
emergency vehicle has the meaning
given in 40 CFR 1037.801.
Engine code has the meaning given in
40 CFR 86.1803.
Final stage manufacturer has the
meaning given in 49 CFR 567.3.
Fire truck has the meaning given in 40
CFR 86.1803.
Footprint is defined as the product of
track width (measured in inches,
calculated as the average of front and
rear track widths, and rounded to the
nearest tenth of an inch) times
wheelbase (measured in inches and
rounded to the nearest tenth of an inch),
divided by 144 and then rounded to the
nearest tenth of a square foot. For
purposes of this definition, track width
is the lateral distance between the
centerlines of the base tires at ground,
including the camber angle. For
purposes of this definition, wheelbase is
the longitudinal distance between front
and rear wheel centerlines.
Full-size pickup truck means a light
truck or medium duty passenger vehicle
that meets the requirements specified in
40 CFR 86.1866–12(e).
Gross axle weight rating (GAWR) has
the meaning given in 49 CFR 571.3.
Gross combination weight rating
(GCWR) has the meaning given in 49
CFR 571.3.
Gross vehicle weight rating (GVWR)
has the meaning given in 49 CFR 571.3.
Heavy-duty engine means any engine
used for (or for which the engine
manufacturer could reasonably expect
to be used for) motive power in a heavyduty vehicle. For purposes of this
definition in this part, the term
‘‘engine’’ includes internal combustion
engines and other devices that convert
chemical fuel into motive power. For
example, a fuel cell and motor used in
a heavy-duty vehicle is a heavy-duty
engine.
Heavy-duty vehicle means a vehicle as
defined in § 523.6.
Incomplete vehicle has the meaning
given in 49 CFR 567.3.
Innovative technology means
technology certified under 40 CFR
1036.610, 40 CFR 1037.610 and 49 CFR
535.7(f).
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Light truck means a non-passenger
automobile meeting the criteria in
§ 523.5.
Manufacturer has the meaning in 49
U.S.C. 30102.
Medium duty passenger vehicle
means a vehicle which would satisfy the
criteria in § 523.5 (relating to light
trucks) but for its gross vehicle weight
rating or its curb weight, which is rated
at more than 8,500 lbs GVWR or has a
vehicle curb weight of more than 6,000
pounds or has a basic vehicle frontal
area in excess of 45 square feet, and
which is designed primarily to transport
passengers, but does not include a
vehicle that—
(1) Is an ‘‘incomplete vehicle’’’ as
defined in this subpart; or
(2) Has a seating capacity of more
than 12 persons; or
(3) Is designed for more than 9
persons in seating rearward of the
driver’s seat; or
(4) Is equipped with an open cargo
area (for example, a pick-up truck box
or bed) of 72.0 inches in interior length
or more. A covered box not readily
accessible from the passenger
compartment will be considered an
open cargo area for purposes of this
definition.
Mild hybrid gasoline-electric vehicle
means a vehicle as defined by EPA in
40 CFR 86.1866–12(e).
Motor home has the meaning given in
49 CFR 571.3.
Motor vehicle has the meaning giving
in 49 U.S.C. 30102.
Off-cycle technology means
technology certified under 40 CFR
1036.610, 40 CFR 1037.610 and 49 CFR
535.7(f).
Passenger-carrying volume means the
sum of the front seat volume and, if any,
rear seat volume, as defined in 40 CFR
600.315–08, in the case of automobiles
to which that term applies. With respect
to automobiles to which that term does
not apply, ‘‘passenger-carrying volume’’
means the sum in cubic feet, rounded to
the nearest 0.1 cubic feet, of the volume
of a vehicle’s front seat and seats to the
rear of the front seat, as applicable,
calculated as follows with the head
room, shoulder room, and leg room
dimensions determined in accordance
with the procedures outlined in Society
of Automotive Engineers Recommended
Practice J1100, Motor Vehicle
Dimensions (Report of Human Factors
Engineering Committee, Society of
Automotive Engineers, approved
November 2009).
(1) For front seat volume, divide 1,728
into the product of the following SAE
dimensions, measured in inches to the
nearest 0.1 inches, and round the
quotient to the nearest 0.001 cubic feet.
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(i) H61-Effective head room—front.
(ii) W3-Shoulder room—front.
(iii) L34-Maximum effective leg roomaccelerator.
(2) For the volume of seats to the rear
of the front seat, divide 1,728 into the
product of the following SAE
dimensions, measured in inches to the
nearest 0.1 inches, and rounded the
quotient to the nearest 0.001 cubic feet.
(i) H63-Effective head room—second.
(ii) W4-Shoulder room—second.
(iii) L51-Minimum effective leg
room—second.
Phase 1 means the greenhouse gas
emissions standards and fuel efficiency
standards for medium- and heavy-duty
engines and vehicles program published
in 2011, effective beginning with model
year 2013.
Phase 2 means means the greenhouse
gas emissions standards and fuel
efficiency standards for medium- and
heavy-duty engines and vehicles
program effective beginning with model
year 2018 for heavy-duty trailers and
model year 2021 for all other heavyduty vehicles and engines.
Pickup truck means a non-passenger
automobile which has a passenger
compartment and an open cargo area
(bed).
Recreational vehicle or RV means a
motor vehicle equipped with living
space and amenities found in a motor
home.
Running clearance means the distance
from the surface on which an
automobile is standing to the lowest
point on the automobile, excluding
unsprung weight.
Static loaded radius arc means a
portion of a circle whose center is the
center of a standard tire-rim
combination of an automobile and
whose radius is the distance from that
center to the level surface on which the
automobile is standing, measured with
the automobile at curb weight, the
wheel parallel to the vehicle’s
longitudinal centerline, and the tire
inflated to the manufacturer’s
recommended pressure.
Strong hybrid gasoline-electric vehicle
means a vehicle as defined by EPA in
40 CFR 86.1866–12(e).
Temporary living quarters means a
space in the interior of an automobile in
which people may temporarily live and
which includes sleeping surfaces, such
as beds, and household conveniences,
such as a sink, stove, refrigerator, or
toilet.
Transmission class has the meaning
given in 40 CFR 600.002.
Tranmission configuration has the
meaning given in 40 CFR 600.002.
Transmission type has the meaning
given in 40 CFR 86.1803.
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Van means a vehicle with a body that
fully encloses the driver and a cargo
carrying or work performing
compartment. The distance from the
leading edge of the windshield to the
foremost body section of vans is
typically shorter than that of pickup
trucks and sport utility vehicles.
Vocational tractor means a tractor that
is classified as a vocational vehicle
according to 40 CFR 1037.630
Vocational vehicle means a vehicle
that is equipped for a particular
industry, trade or occupation such as
construction, heavy hauling, mining,
logging, oil fields, refuse and includes
vehicles such as school buses,
motorcoaches and RVs.
Work truck means a vehicle that is
rated at more than 8,500 pounds and
less than or equal to 10,000 pounds
gross vehicle weight, and is not a
medium-duty passenger vehicle as
defined in 40 CFR 86.1803.
■ 284. Revise § 523.6 to read as follows:
§ 523.6
Heavy-duty vehicle.
(a) A heavy-duty vehicle is any
commercial medium or heavy-duty onhighway vehicle or a work truck, as
defined in 49 U.S.C. 32901(a)(7) and
(19). For the purpose of this section,
heavy-duty vehicles are divided into
four regulatory categories as follows:
(1) Heavy-duty pickup trucks and
vans;
(2) Heavy-duty vocational vehicles;
(3) Truck tractors with a GVWR above
26,000 pounds; and
(4) Heavy-duty trailers.
(b) The heavy-duty vehicle
classification does not include vehicles
excluded as specified in 49 CFR 535.3.
■ 285. Revise § 523.7 to read as follows:
§ 523.7
vans.
Heavy-duty pickup trucks and
Heavy-duty pickup trucks and vans
are pickup trucks and vans with a gross
vehicle weight rating between 8,501
pounds and 14,000 pounds (Class 2b
through 3 vehicles) manufactured as
complete vehicles by a single or final
stage manufacturer or manufactured as
incomplete vehicles as designated by a
manufacturer. A manufacturer may also
optionally designate as a heavy-duty
pickup truck or van any cab-complete or
complete vehicle having a GVWR over
14,000 pounds and below 26,001
pounds equipped with a spark ignition
engine or any spark ignition engine
certified and sold as a loose engine
manufactured for use in a heavy-duty
pickup truck or van. See references in
40 CFR 86.1819, 40 CFR 1037.150, and
49 CFR 535.5(a).
■ 286. Add § 523.10 to read as follows:
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§ 523.10
Heavy-duty trailers.
(a) A trailer means a motor vehicle
with or without motive power, designed
for carrying persons or property and for
being drawn by another motor vehicle
as defined in 49 CFR 571.3. For the
purpose of this part, heavy-duty trailers
include only those trailers designed to
be drawn by a truck tractor or vocational
tractor. Heavy-duty trailers may be
divided into different types and
categories as follows:
(1) Box vans are trailers with an
enclosed cargo space that is
permanently attached to the chassis,
with fixed sides, nose, and roof and is
designed to carry a wide range of
freight. Tankers are not box vans.
(2) Box vans with self-contained
refrigeration systems are refrigerated
vans. All other box vans are dry vans.
(3) Trailers that are not box vans are
non-box trailers. This includes chassis
that are designed only for temporarily
mounted containers.
(4) Box trailers with length greater
than 50 feet are long box trailers. Other
box trailers are short box trailers.
(b) Heavy-duty trailers does not
include excluded trailers as specified in
49 CFR 535.3.
PART 534—RIGHTS AND
RESPONSIBILITIES OF
MANUFACTURERS IN THE CONTEXT
OF CHANGES IN CORPORATE
RELATIONSHIPS
287. Revise the authority citation for
part 534 to read as follows:
■
Authority: 49 U.S.C. 32901; delegation of
authority at 49 CFR 1.95.
■
288. Add § 534.8 to read as follows:
§ 534.8
Shared corporate relationships.
(a) Vehicles and engines built by
multiple manufacturers can share
responsibility for complying with fuel
consumption standards in 49 CFR part
535, if allowed by EPA under 40 CFR
1037.620 and a joint agreement between
the parties is sent to EPA and NHTSA.
(1) Each agreement must—
(i) Define how the vehicles and
engines will be divided among each
manufacturer;
(ii) Specify which manufacturer(s)
will be responsible for the EPA
certificates of conformity required in 40
CFR 1036.201 and 40 CFR 1037.201;
(iii) Describe the vehicles and engines
in terms of the model types, production
volumes, and model years (production
periods if necessary);
(iv) Describe which manufacturer(s)
have engineering and design control and
sale distribution ownership over the
vehicles and/or engines; and
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(v) Include signatures from all parties
involved in the shared corporate
relationship.
(2) After defining the shared
relationship between the manufacturers
for the initiating model year,
manufacturers cannot change the
defined ownerships for subsequent
model years unless one manufacturer
assumes a successor relationship over
another manufacturer that previously
shared ownership.
(3) Multiple manufacturers must
designate the same shared responsibility
for complying with fuel consumption as
selected for GHG standards unless
otherwise allowed by EPA and NHTSA.
(b) NHTSA reserves the right to reject
the joint agreement.
■ 289. Revise part 535 to read as
follows:
PART 535 MEDIUM- AND HEAVY-DUTY
VEHICLE FUEL EFFICIENCY
PROGRAM
Sec.
535.1 Scope.
535.2 Purpose.
535.3 Applicability.
535.4 Definitions.
535.5 Standards.
535.6 Measurement and calculation
procedures.
535.7 Averaging, banking, and trading
(ABT) credit program.
535.8 Reporting requirements and
recordkeeping requirements.
535.9 Enforcement approach.
535.10 How do manufacturers comply with
fuel consumption standards?
Authority: 49 U.S.C. 32902 and 30101;
delegation of authority at 49 CFR 1.95.
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§ 535.1
Scope.
This part establishes fuel
consumption standards pursuant to 49
U.S.C. 32902(k) for work trucks and
commercial medium-duty and heavyduty on-highway vehicles, including
trailers (hereafter referenced as heavyduty vehicles), and engines
manufactured for sale in the United
States and establishes a credit program
manufacturers may use to comply with
standards and requirements for
manufacturers to provide reports to the
National Highway Traffic Safety
Administration regarding their efforts to
reduce the fuel consumption of heavyduty vehicles.
§ 535.2
Purpose.
The purpose of this part is to reduce
the fuel consumption of new heavy-duty
vehicles by establishing maximum
levels for fuel consumption standards
while providing a flexible credit
program to assist manufacturers in
complying with standards.
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§ 535.3
Applicability.
(a) This part applies to manufacturers
that produce complete and incomplete
heavy-duty vehicles as defined in 49
CFR part 523, and to the manufacturers
of all heavy-duty engines manufactured
for use in the applicable vehicles for
each given model year.
(b) Vehicle and engine manufacturers
that must comply with this part include
manufacturers required to have
approved certificates of conformity from
EPA as specified in 40 CFR parts 86,
1036, and 1037, except for minor
differences in excluded vehicles as
specified in paragraph (d) of this
section.
(c) In certain special conditions where
EPA allows manufacturers to designate
other manufacturers to comply with
GHG standards or grants special
allowances in the construction of
vehicles, as specified in 40 CFR
1037.620, 1037.621, and 1037.650, these
allowances can be used to comply with
the fuel consumption standards of this
part.
(d) Manufacturers required to meet
the fuel consumption standards of this
part also include manufacturers
completing, altering, or assembling
motor vehicles or motor vehicle
equipment into—
(1) Electric vehicles; and
(2) Alternative fueled vehicles from
all types of heavy duty engine
conversions.
(i) Entities that install alternative fuel
conversion systems into vehicles
acquired from vehicle manufacturers
prior to first retail sale or introduction
into interstate commerce may be
regulated under this part if designated
by the vehicle manufacturer and EPA to
be the certificate holder.
(ii) Entities installing alternative fuel
conversions are regulated as vehicle and
engine manufacturers.
(iii) Entities can be omitted from
compliance with vehicle based
standards, if–
(A) Allowed by EPA;
(B) They provide a reasonable
technical basis that the modified vehicle
continues to meet vehicle standards;
and
(C) They provide a joint agreement to
EPA and NHTSA as specified in 49 CFR
534.7.
(e) The following heavy-duty vehicles
and engines are excluded from the
requirements of this part:
(1) Medium-duty passenger vehicles
and other vehicles subject to the lightduty corporate average fuel economy
standards in 49 CFR parts 531 and 533.
(2) Recreational vehicles, including
motor homes manufactured before
model year 2021 exept those produced
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by manufacturers voluntarily complying
with NHTSA’s early voational standards
for model years 2013 through 2020.
(3) Heavy-duty trailers meeting one or
more of the following criteria are
excluded from vehicle standards in
§ 535.5(e):
(i) Trailers designed for in-field
operations in logging or mining.
(ii) Trailers designed to operate at low
speeds such that they are unsuitable for
normal highway operation.
(iii) Trailers designed to perform their
primary function while stationary, if
they have permanently affixed
components designed for heavy
construction. This would include crane
trailers and concrete trailers. Trailers
would not qualify under this paragraph
based on welding equipment or other
components that are commonly used
separate from trailers.
(iv) Trailers less than 35 feet long
with three axles, and all trailers with
four or more axles.
(v) Trailers intended for temporary or
permanent residence, office space, or
other work space, such as campers,
mobile homes, and carnival trailers.
(vi) Trailers built before January 1,
2021, except those trailers voluntarily
complaying with NHTSA’s early trailer
standards for model years 2018–2020.
(vii) Equipment that serves similar
purposes to trailers but is not intended
to be pulled by a tractor.
(viii) Containers that are not
permanently mounted on chassis.
(ix) Trailers designed to be drawn by
vehicles other than tractors, and those
that are coupled to vehicles with pintle
hooks or hitches instead of a fifth wheel.
(f) The following heavy-duty vehicles
and engines are exempted from the
requirements of this part:
(1) Off-road vehicles. Manufacturers
producing heavy-duty vocational
vehicles or vocational tractors that are
intended for off-road use meeting the
criteria of paragraph (f)(1)(i) of this
section are exempted from vehicle
standards in § 535.5(b) and (c) but must
comply with engine standards in
§ 535.5(d).
(i) Vehicles primarily designed to
perform work off-road (such as in oil
fields, mining, forests, or construction
sites), and meeting at least one of the
criteria of paragraph (f)(1)(i)(A) of this
section and at least one of the criteria of
paragraph (f)(1)(i)(B) of this section.
(A) Vehicle must have affixed
components designed to work in an offroad environment (for example,
hazardous material equipment or
drilling equipment) or was designed to
operate at low speeds making them
unsuitable for normal highway
operation.
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(B) Vehicles must—
(1) Have an axle that has a gross axle
weight rating (GAWR) of 29,000 pounds
or more;
(2) Have a speed attainable in 2 miles
of not more than 33 mph; or
(3) Have a speed attainable in 2 miles
of not more than 45 mph, an unloaded
vehicle weight that is not less than 95
percent of its gross vehicle weight rating
(GVWR), and no capacity to carry
occupants other than the driver and
operating crew.
(C) Manufacturers building tractors
exempted under this provision must
request preliminary approval before
introducing vehicles into commerce.
The request with supporting
information must be sent to EPA that
will coordinate with NHTSA in making
a determination in accordance with 40
CFR 1037.210. Vehicles introduced into
U.S. commerce without approval under
this paragraph violate 40 CFR
1068.101(a)(1).
(ii) [Reserved]
(2) Small business manufacturers. (i)
For Phase 1, small business
manufacturers are exempted from the
vehicle and engine standards of § 535.5,
but must comply with the reporting
requirements of § 535.8(g).
(ii) For Phase 2, fuel consumption
standards apply on a delayed schedule
for manufacturers meeting the small
business criteria specified in 13 CFR
121.201 and in 40 CFR 86.1819–
14(k)(5), 40 CFR 1036.150, and 40 CFR
1037.150. Qualifying manufacturers of
truck tractors, vocational vehicles,
heavy duty pickups and vans, and
engines are not subject to the fuel
consumption standards for vehicles and
engines built before January 1, 2022.
Qualifying manufacturers may choose to
voluntarily comply early.
(iii) Small business manufacturers
producing vehicles and engines that run
on any fuel other than gasoline, E85, or
diesel fuel meeting the criteria specified
in 13 CFR 121.201 and in 40 CFR
86.1819–14(k)(5), 40 CFR 1036.150, and
40 CFR 1037.150 may delay complying
with every new mandatory standard
under this part by one model year.
(g) For model year 2021 and later,
emergency vehicles may comply with
alternative fuel consumption standards
as specified in § 535.5(b)(5) instead of
the standards specified in § 535.5(b)(4).
Vehicles certified to these alternative
standards may not generate or use
positive fuel consumption credits but
negative credits must be averaged
within an averaging set.
(h) NHTSA may exclude or exempt
vehicles and engines under special
conditions allowed by EPA in
accordance with 40 CFR parts 85, 86,
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1036, 1037, and 1068. Manufacturers
should consult the agencies if uncertain
how to apply any EPA provision under
the NHTSA fuel consumption program.
Upon notification by EPA of a
fraudulent use of an exemption, NHTSA
reserves that right to suspend or revoke
any exemption or exclusion.
§ 535.4
Definitions.
The terms manufacture and
manufacturer are used as defined in
section 501 of the Act and the terms
commercial medium-duty and heavyduty on highway vehicle, fuel and work
truck are used as defined in 49 U.S.C.
32901.
Act means the Motor Vehicle
Information and Cost Savings Act, as
amended by Pub. L. 94–163 and 96–425.
Administrator means the
Administrator of the National Highway
Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA)
or the Administrator’s delegate.
Advanced technology means vehicle
technology under this fuel consumption
program in §§ 535.6 and 535.7 and by
EPA under 40 CFR 86.1819–14(d)(7),
1036.615, or 1037.615.
Alternative fuel conversion has the
meaning given for clean alternative fuel
conversion in 40 CFR 85.502.
A to B testing has the meaning given
in 40 CFR 1037.801.
Automatic tire inflation system has
the meaning in 40 CFR 1037.801.
Averaging set means, a set of engines
or vehicles in which fuel consumption
credits may be exchanged. Credits
generated by one engine or vehicle
family may only be used by other
respective engine or vehicle families in
the same averaging set. Note that an
averaging set may comprise more than
one regulatory subcategory. The
averaging sets for this HD program are
defined as follows:
(1) Heavy-duty pickup trucks and
vans.
(2) Vocational light-heavy vehicles
with a GVWR above 8,500 pounds but
at or below 19,500 pounds.
(3) Vocational and tractor mediumheavy vehicles with a GVWR above
19,500 pounds but at or below 33,000
pounds.
(4) Vocational and tractor heavyheavy vehicles with a GVWR above
33,000 pounds.
(5) Compression-ignition light heavyduty engines for Class 2b to 5 vehicles
with a GVWR above 8,500 pounds but
at or below 19,500 pounds.
(6) Compression-ignition medium
heavy-duty engines for Class 6 and 7
vehicles with a GVWR above 19,500 but
at or below 33,000 pounds.
(7) Compression-ignition heavy
heavy-duty engines for Class 8 vehicles
with a GVWR above 33,000 pounds.
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(8) Spark-ignition engines in Class 2b
to 8 vehicles with a GVWR above 8,500
pounds.
(9) Long box van trailers.
(10) Short box van trailers.
(11) Long refrigerated box van trailers.
(12) Short refrigerated box van
trailers.
Cab-complete vehicle has the meaning
given in 49 CFR part 523.
Carryover means relating to
certification based on emission data
generated from an earlier model year.
Certificate holder means the
manufacturer who holds the certificate
of conformity for the vehicle or engine
and that assigns the model year based
on the date when its manufacturing
operations are completed relative to its
annual model year period.
Certificate of Conformity means an
approval document granted by EPA to a
manufacturer that submits an
application for a vehicle or engine
emissions family in 40 CFR 1036.205
and 1037.205. A certificate of
conformity is valid from the indicated
effective date until December 31 of the
model year for which it is issued. The
certificate must be renewed annually for
any vehicle a manufacturer continues to
produce.
Certification means process of
obtaining a certificate of conformity for
a vehicle family that complies with the
emission standards and requirements in
this part.
Certified emission level means the
highest deteriorated emission level in an
engine family for a given pollutant from
the applicable transient and/or steadystate testing rounded to the same
number of decimal places as the
applicable standard. Note that you may
have two certified emission levels for
CO2 if you certify a family for both
vocational and tractor use.
Chassis-cab means the incomplete
part of a vehicle that includes a frame,
a completed occupant compartment and
that requires only the addition of cargocarrying, work-performing, or loadbearing components to perform its
intended functions.
Chief Counsel means the NHTSA
Chief Counsel, or his or her designee.
Complete sister vehicle is a complete
vehicle of the same configuration as a
cab-complete vehicle.
Complete vehicle has the meaning
given in 49 CFR part 523.
Compression-ignition (CI) means
relating to a type of reciprocating,
internal-combustion engine, such as a
diesel engine, that is not a sparkignition engine. Note that 40 CFR 1036.1
also deems gas turbine engines and
other engines to be compressionignition engines.
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Configuration means a
subclassification within a test group for
passenger cars, light trucks and
medium-duty passenger vehicles and
heavy-duty pickup trucks and vans
which is based on basic engine, engine
code, transmission type and gear ratios,
and final drive ratio.
Curb weight has the meaning given in
40 CFR 86.1803.
Date of manufacture means the date
on which the certifying vehicle
manufacturer completes its
manufacturing operations, except as
follows:
(1) Where the certificate holder is an
engine manufacturer that does not
manufacture the complete or incomplete
vehicle, the date of manufacture of the
vehicle is based on the date assembly of
the vehicle is completed.
(2) EPA and NHTSA may approve an
alternate date of manufacture based on
the date on which the certifying (or
primary) vehicle manufacturer
completes assembly at the place of main
assembly, consistent with the provisions
of 40 CFR 1037.601 and 49 CFR 567.4.
(3) A vehicle manufacturer that
completes assembly of a vehicle at two
or more facilities may ask to use as the
month and year of manufacture, for that
vehicle, the month and year in which
manufacturing is completed at the place
of main assembly, consistent with
provisions of 49 CFR 567.4, as the
model year. Note that such staged
assembly is subject to the provisions of
40 CFR 1068.260(c). NHTSA’s
allowance of this provision is effective
when EPA approves the manufacturer’s
certificates of conformity for these
vehicles.
Day cab has the meaning given in 40
CFR 1037.801.
Emergency vehicle means a vehicle
that meets one of the criteria in 40 CFR
1037.801.
Engine family has the meaning given
in 40 CFR 1036.230.
Excluded means a vehicle or engine
manufacturer or component is not
required to comply with any aspects
with the NHTSA fuel consumption
program.
Exempted means a vehicle or engine
manufacturer or component is not
required to comply with certain
provisions of the NHTSA fuel
consumption program.
Family certification level (FCL) has
the meaning given in 40 CFR 1036.801.
Family emission limit (FEL) has the
meaning given in 40 CFR 1037.801.
Final drive ratio has the meaning in
40 CFR 1037.801.
Final-stage manufacturer has the
meaning given in 49 CFR 567.3.
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Fleet in this part means all the heavyduty vehicles or engines within each of
the regulatory sub-categories that are
manufactured by a manufacturer in a
particular model year and that are
subject to fuel consumption standards
under § 535.5.
Fleet average fuel consumption is the
calculated average fuel consumption
performance value for a manufacturer’s
fleet derived from the production
weighted fuel consumption values of
the unique vehicle configurations
within each vehicle model type that
makes up that manufacturer’s vehicle
fleet in a given model year. In this part,
the fleet average fuel consumption value
is determined for each manufacturer’s
fleet of heavy-duty pickup trucks and
vans.
Fleet average fuel consumption
standard is the actual average fuel
consumption standard for a
manufacturer’s fleet derived from the
production weighted fuel consumption
standards of each unique vehicle
configuration, based on payload, tow
capacity and drive configuration (2, 4 or
all-wheel drive), of the model types that
makes up that manufacturer’s vehicle
fleet in a given model year. In this part,
the fleet average fuel consumption
standard is determined for each
manufacturer’s fleet of heavy-duty
pickup trucks and vans.
Fuel cell means an electrochemical
cell that produces electricity via the
non-combustion reaction of a
consumable fuel, typically hydrogen.
Fuel cell electric vehicle means a
motor vehicle propelled solely by an
electric motor where energy for the
motor is supplied by a fuel cell.
Fuel efficiency means the amount of
work performed for each gallon of fuel
consumed.
Gaseous fuel has the meaning given in
40 CFR 1037.801.
Good engineering judgment has the
meaning given in 40 CFR 1068.30. See
40 CFR 1068.5 for the administrative
process used to evaluate good
engineering judgment.
Heavy-duty off-road vehicle means a
heavy-duty vocational vehicle or
vocational tractor that is intended for
off-road use.
Heavy-duty vehicle has the meaning
given in 49 CFR part 523.
Heavy-haul tractor has the meaning
given in 40 CFR 1037.801.
Heavy heavy-duty (HHD) vehicle
means a Class 8 vehicle with a GVWR
above 33,000 pounds.
Hybrid engine or hybrid powertrain
means an engine or powertrain that
includes energy storage features other
than a conventional battery system or
conventional flywheel. Supplemental
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electrical batteries and hydraulic
accumulators are examples of hybrid
energy storage systems. Note that certain
provisions in this part treat hybrid
engines and powertrains intended for
vehicles that include regenerative
braking different than those intended for
vehicles that do not include
regenerative braking.
Hybrid vehicle means a vehicle that
includes energy storage features (other
than a conventional battery system or
conventional flywheel) in addition to an
internal combustion engine or other
engine using consumable chemical fuel.
Supplemental electrical batteries and
hydraulic accumulators are examples of
hybrid energy storage systems Note that
certain provisions in this part treat
hybrid vehicles that include
regenerative braking different than those
that do not include regenerative braking.
Incomplete vehicle has the meaning
given in 49 CFR part 523. For the
purpose of this regulation, a
manufacturer may request EPA and
NHTSA to allow the certification of a
vehicle as an incomplete vehicle if it
manufactures the engine and sells the
unassembled chassis components,
provided it does not produce and sell
the body components necessary to
complete the vehicle.
Light heavy-duty (LHD) vehicle means
a Class 2b through 5 vehicle with a
GVWR at or below 19,500 pounds.
Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) has the
meaning given in 40 CFR 1036.801.
Low rolling resistance tire means a tire
on a vocational vehicle with a tire
rolling resistance level (TRRL) of 7.7 kg/
metric ton or lower, a steer tire on a
tractor with a TRRL of 7.7 kg/metric ton
or lower, or a drive tire on a tractor with
a TRRL of 8.1 kg/metric ton or lower.
Medium heavy-duty (MHD) vehicle
means a Class 6 or 7 vehicle with a
GVWR above 19,500 pounds GVWR but
at or below 33,000 pounds.
Model type has the meaning given in
40 CFR 600.002.
Model year as it applies to engines
means the manufacturer’s annual new
model production period, except as
restricted under this definition. It must
include January 1 of the calendar year
for which the model year is named, may
not begin before January 2 of the
previous calendar year, and it must end
by December 31 of the named calendar
year. Manufacturers may not adjust
model years to circumvent or delay
compliance with standards.
Model year as it applies to vehicles
means the manufacturer’s annual new
model production period, except as
restricted under this definition and 40
CFR part 85, subpart X. It must include
January 1 of the calendar year for which
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the model year is named, may not begin
before January 2 of the previous
calendar year, and it must end by
December 31 of the named calendar
year.
(1) The manufacturer who holds the
certificate of conformity for the vehicle
must assign the model year based on the
date when its manufacturing operations
are completed relative to its annual
model year period.
(2) Unless a vehicle is being shipped
to a secondary manufacturer that will
hold the certificate of conformity, the
model year must be assigned prior to
introduction of the vehicle into U.S.
commerce. The certifying manufacturer
must redesignate the model year if it
does not complete its manufacturing
operations within the originally
identified model year. A vehicle
introduced into U.S. commerce without
a model year is deemed to have a model
year equal to the calendar year of its
introduction into U.S. commerce unless
the certifying manufacturer assigns a
later date.
Natural gas has the meaning given in
40 CFR 1036.801. Vehicles that use a
pilot-ignited natural gas engine (which
uses a small diesel fuel ignition system),
are still considered natural gas vehicles.
NHTSA Enforcement means the
NHTSA Associate Administrator for
Enforcement, or his or her designee.
Party means the person alleged to
have committed a violation of § 535.9,
and includes manufacturers of vehicles
and manufacturers of engines.
Payload means in this part the
resultant of subtracting the curb weight
from the gross vehicle weight rating.
Petroleum has the meaning given in
40 CFR 1036.801.
Pickup truck has the meaning given in
49 CFR part 523.
Plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV)
means a hybrid electric vehicle that has
the capability to charge the battery or
batteries used for vehicle propulsion
from an off-vehicle electric source, such
that the off-vehicle source cannot be
connected to the vehicle while the
vehicle is in motion.
Power take-off (PTO) means a
secondary engine shaft or other system
on a vehicle that provides substantial
auxiliary power for purposes unrelated
to vehicle propulsion or normal vehicle
accessories such as air conditioning,
power steering, and basic electrical
accessories. A typical PTO uses a
secondary shaft on the engine to
transmit power to a hydraulic pump
that powers auxiliary equipment such as
a boom on a bucket truck.
Powertrain family has the meaning
given in 40 CFR 1037.231.
Manufacturers choosing to perform
powertrain testing as specified in 40
CFR 1037.550, divide product lines into
powertrain families that are expected to
have similar fuel consumptions and CO2
emission characteristics throughout the
useful life.
Preliminary approval means approval
granted by an authorized EPA
representative prior to submission of an
application for certification, consistent
with the provisions of 40 CFR 1037.210.
For requirements involing NHTSA, EPA
will ensure decisions are jointly made
and will convey the decision to the
manufacturer.
Primary intended service class has the
meaning for engines as specified in 40
CFR 1036.140.
Rechargeable Energy Storage System
(RESS) means the component(s) of a
hybrid engine or vehicle that store
recovered energy for later use, such as
the battery system in a electric hybrid
vehicle.
Regulatory category means each of the
four types of heavy-duty vehicles
defined in 49 CFR 523.6 and the heavyduty engines used in these heavy-duty
vehicles.
Regulatory subcategory means the
sub-groups in each regulatory category
to which fuel consumption standards
and requirements apply, and are defined
as follows:
(1) Heavy-duty pick-up trucks and
vans.
(2) Vocational vehicle subcategories
are shown in Tables 1 and 2 below and
include vocational tractors. Table 1
includes vehicles complying with Phase
1 standards. Phase 2 vehicles are
included in Table 2 which have 21
separate subcategories to account for
differences in engine type, GVWR, and
the vehicle characteristics
corresponding to the duty cycles for
vocational vehicles.
TABLE 1—PHASE 1 VOCATIONAL
VEHICLE SUBCATEGORIES
LHD vocational vehicles.
MHD vocational vehicles.
HHD vocational vehicles.
TABLE 2—PHASE 2 VOCATIONAL VEHICLE SUBCATEGORIES
Engine type
CI
CI
CI
CI
SI
SI
SI
LHD vocational vehicles
.....................................................
.....................................................
.....................................................
and SI .........................................
.....................................................
.....................................................
.....................................................
MHD vocational vehicles
Urban ............................................
Multi-Purpose ...............................
Regional .......................................
Emergency ...................................
Urban ............................................
Multi-Purpose ...............................
Regional .......................................
Urban ............................................
Multi-Purpose ...............................
Regional .......................................
Emergency ...................................
Urban ............................................
Multi-Purpose ...............................
Regional .......................................
(3) Tractor subcategories are shown in
Table 3 below for Phase 1 and 2. Table
3 includes 10 separate subcategories for
tractors complying with Phase 1 and 2
HHD vocational vehicles
Urban.
Multi-Purpose.
Regional.
Emergency.
Urban.
Multi-Purpose.
Regional.
standards. The heavy-haul tractor
subcategory only applies for Phase 2.
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TABLE 3—PHASE 1 AND 2 TRUCK TRACTOR SUBCATEGORIES
Class 7
Class 8 day cabs
Class 8 sleeper cabs
Low-roof tractors ................................................
Mid-roof tractors .................................................
High-roof tractors ................................................
Low-roof day cab tractors ................................
Mid-roof day cab tractors .................................
High-roof day cab tractors ...............................
Low-roof sleeper cab tractors.
Mid-roof sleeper cab tractors.
High-roof sleeper cab tractors.
Heavy-haul tractors (applies only to Phase 2
program).
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(4) Trailer subcategories are shown in
Table 4 of this section for the Phase 2
program. Trailers do not comply under
the Phase 1 program. Table 4 includes
10 separate subcategories for trailers,
40739
which are only subject to Phase 2 only
standards.
TABLE 4—TRAILER SUBCATEGORIES
Full-aero trailers
Partial-aero trailers
Long box dry vans ..............................................
Short box dry vans .............................................
Long box refrigerated vans ................................
Short box refrigerated vans ................................
Long box dry vans ...........................................
Short box dry vans ...........................................
Long box refrigerated vans ..............................
Short box refrigerated vans .............................
(5) Engine subcategories are shown in
Table 5 below. Table 5 includes 6
separate subcategories for engines
Other trailers
Non-aero box vans.
Non-box trailers.
which are the same for Phase 1 and 2
standards.
TABLE 5—ENGINE SUBCATEGORIES
LHD engines
MHD engines
HHD engines
CI engines for vocational vehicles .....................
CI engines for vocational vehicles ...................
CI engines for truck tractors ............................
CI engines for vocational vehicles.
CI engines for truck tractors.
ebenthall on DSK3VPTVN1PROD with MISCELLANEOUS
All spark-ignition engines.
Roof height means the maximum
height of a vehicle (rounded to the
nearest inch), excluding narrow
accessories such as exhaust pipes and
antennas, but including any wide
accessories such as roof fairings.
Measure roof height of the vehicle
configured to have its maximum height
that will occur during actual use, with
properly inflated tires and no driver,
passengers, or cargo onboard. Determine
the base roof height on fully inflated
tires having a static loaded radius equal
to the arithmetic mean of the largest and
smallest static loaded radius of tires a
manufacturer offers or a standard tire
EPA approves. If a vehicle is equipped
with an adjustable roof fairing, measure
the roof height with the fairing in its
lowest setting. Once the maximum
height is determined, roof heights are
divided into the following categories:
(1) Low-roof means a vehicle with a
roof height of 120 inches or less.
(2) Mid-roof means a vehicle with a
roof height between 121 and 147 inches.
(3) High-roof means a vehicle with a
roof height of 148 inches or more.
Service class group means a group of
engine and vehicle averaging sets
defined as follows:
(1) Spark-ignition engines, light
heavy-duty compression-ignition
engines, light heavy-duty vocational
vehicles and heavy-duty pickup trucks
and vans.
(2) Medium heavy-duty compressionignition engines and medium heavyduty vocational vehicles and tractors.
(3) Heavy heavy-duty compressionignition engines and heavy heavy-duty
vocational vehicles and tractors.
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Sleeper cab means a type of truck cab
that has a compartment behind the
driver’s seat intended to be used by the
driver for sleeping. This includes both
cabs accessible from the driver’s
compartment and those accessible from
outside the vehicle.
Small business manufacturer means a
manufacturer meeting the criteria
specified in 13 CFR 121.201. For
manufacturers owned by a parent
company, the employee and revenue
limits apply to the total number
employees and total revenue of the
parent company and all its subsidiaries.
Spark-ignition (SI) means relating to a
gasoline-fueled engine or any other type
of engine with a spark plug (or other
sparking device) and with operating
characteristics significantly similar to
the theoretical Otto combustion cycle.
Spark-ignition engines usually use a
throttle to regulate intake air flow to
control power during normal operation.
Note that some spark-ignition engines
are subject to requirements that apply
for compression-ignition engines as
described in 40 CFR 1036.140.
Subconfiguration means a unique
combination within a vehicle
configuration of equivalent test weight,
road-load horsepower, and any other
operational characteristics or parameters
that EPA determines may significantly
affect CO2 emissions within a vehicle
configuration as defined in 40 CFR
600.002.
Standard payload means the payload
assumed for each vehicle, in tons, for
modeling and calculating emission
credits, as follows:
(1) For vocational vehicles:
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(i) 2.85 tons for light heavy-duty
vehicles.
(ii) 5.6 tons for medium heavy-duty
vehicles.
(iii) 7.5 tons for heavy heavy-duty
vocational vehicles.
(2) For tractors:
(i) 12.5 tons for Class 7.
(ii) 19 tons for Class 8.
(iii) 43 tons for heavy-haul tractors.
(3) For trailers:
(i) 10 tons for short box vans.
(ii) 19 tons for other trailers.
Standard tractor has the meaning
given in 40 CFR 1037.501.
Standard trailer has the meaning
given in 40 CFR 1037.501.
Test group means the multiple vehicle
lines and model types that share critical
emissions and fuel consumption related
features and that are certified as a group
by a common certificate of conformity
issued by EPA and is used collectively
with other test groups within an
averaging set or regulatory subcategory
and is used by NHTSA for determining
the fleet average fuel consumption.
Tire rolling resistance level (TRRL)
means a value with units of kg/metric
ton that represents that rolling
resistance of a tire configuration. TRRLs
are used as inputs to the GEM model
under 40 CFR 1037.520. Note that a
manufacturer may assign a value higher
than a measured rolling resistance of a
tire configuration.
Towing capacity in this part is equal
to the resultant of subtracting the gross
vehicle weight rating from the gross
combined weight rating.
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Trade means to exchange fuel
consumption credits, either as a buyer
or a seller.
Truck tractor has the meaning given
in 49 CFR 571.3. This includes most
heavy-duty vehicles specifically
designed for the primary purpose of
pulling trailers, but does not include
vehicles designed to carry other loads.
For purposes of this definition ‘‘other
loads’’ would not include loads carried
in the cab, sleeper compartment, or
toolboxes. Examples of vehicles that are
similar to tractors but that are not
tractors under this part include
dromedary tractors, automobile haulers,
straight trucks with trailers hitches, and
tow trucks.
U.S.-directed production volume
means the number of vehicle units,
subject to the requirements of this part,
produced by a manufacturer for which
the manufacturer has a reasonable
assurance that sale was or will be made
to ultimate purchasers in the United
States.
Useful life has the meaning given in
40 CFR 1036.801 and 1037.801.
Vehicle configuration means a unique
combination of vehicle hardware and
calibration (related to measured or
modeled emissions) within a vehicle
family. Vehicles with hardware or
software differences, but that have no
hardware or software differences related
to measured or modeled emissions or
fuel consumption can be included in the
same vehicle configuration. Note that
vehicles with hardware or software
differences related to measured or
modeled emissions or fuel consumption
are considered to be different
configurations even if they have the
same GEM inputs and FEL. Vehicles
within a vehicle configuration differ
only with respect to normal production
variability or factors unrelated to
measured or modeled emissions and
fuel consumption for EPA and NHTSA.
Vehicle family has the meaning given
in 40 CFR 1037.230. Manufacturers
designate families in accordance with
EPA provisions and may not choose
different families between the NHTSA
and EPA programs.
Vehicle service class has the meaning
for vehicles as specified in the 40 CFR
1037.801.
Vocational tractor has the meaning
given in 40 CFR 1037.801.
Zero emissions vehicle means an
electric vehicle or a fuel cell vehicle.
§ 535.5
Standards.
(a) Heavy-duty pickup trucks and
vans. Each manufacturer’s fleet of
heavy-duty pickup trucks and vans shall
comply with the fuel consumption
standards in this paragraph (a)
expressed in gallons per 100 miles. Each
vehicle must be manufactured to
comply for its useful life. If the
manufacturer’s fleet includes
conventional vehicles (gasoline, diesel
and alternative fueled vehicles) and
advanced technology vehicles in Phase
1 (hybrids with regenerative braking,
vehicles equipped with Rankine-cycle
engines, electric and fuel cell vehicles),
it should divide its fleet into two
separate fleets each with its own
separate fleet average fuel consumption
standard which the manufacturer must
comply with the requirements of this
paragraph (a). NHTSA standards
correspond to the same requirements for
EPA as specified in 40 CFR 86.1819–14.
(1) Mandatory standards. For model
years 2016 and later, each manufacturer
must comply with the fleet average
standard derived from the unique
subconfiguration target standards (or
groups of subconfigurations approved
by EPA in accordance with 40 CFR
86.1819) of the model types that make
up the manufacturer’s fleet in a given
model year. Each subconfiguration has a
unique attribute-based target standard,
defined by each group of vehicles
having the same payload, towing
capacity and whether the vehicles are
equipped with a 2-wheel or 4-wheel
drive configuration. Phase 1 target
standards apply for model years 2016
through 2020. Phase 2 target standards
apply for model year 2021 and
afterwards.
(2) Subconfiguration target standards.
(i) Two alternatives exist for
determining the subconfiguration target
standards for Phase 1. For each
alternative, separate standards exist for
compression-ignition and spark-ignition
vehicles:
(A) The first alternative allows
manufacturers to determine a fixed fuel
consumption standard that is constant
over the model years; and
(B) The second alternative allows
manufacturers to determine standards
that are phased-in gradually each year.
(ii) Calculate the subconfiguration
target standards as specified in this
paragraph (a)(2)(ii), using the
appropriate coefficients from Table 6
choosing between the alternatives in
paragraph (a)(2)(i) of this section. For
electric or fuel cell heavy-duty vehicles,
use compression-ignition vehicle
coefficients ‘‘c’’ and ‘‘d’’ and for hybrid
(including plug-in hybrid), dedicated
and dual-fueled vehicles, use
coefficients ‘‘c’’ and ‘‘d’’ appropriate for
the engine type used. Round each
standard to the nearest 0.001 gallons per
100 miles and specify all weights in
pounds rounded to the nearest pound.
Calculate the subconfiguration target
standards using the following equation:
Subconfiguration Target Standard
(gallons per 100 miles) = [c × (WF)]
+d
Where:
WF = Work Factor = [0.75 × (Payload
Capacity + Xwd)] + [0.25 × Towing
Capacity]
Xwd = 4wd Adjustment = 500 lbs if the
vehicle group is equipped with 4wd
and all-wheel drive, otherwise
equals 0 lbs for 2wd.
Payload Capacity = GVWR (lbs) ¥ Curb
Weight (lbs) (for each vehicle
group)
Towing Capacity = GCWR (lbs) ¥
GVWR (lbs) (for each vehicle group)
TABLE 6—COEFFICIENTS FOR MANDATORY SUBCONFIGURATION TARGET STANDARDS
Model year(s)
c
d
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Phase 1 Alternative 1—Fixed Target Standards
CI Vehicle Coefficients
2016 to 2018 ................................................................................................................................................
2019 to 2020 ................................................................................................................................................
0.0004322
0.0004086
3.330
3.143
0.0005131
0.0004951
3.961
3.815
SI Vehicle Coefficients
2016 to 2018 ................................................................................................................................................
2019 to 2020 ................................................................................................................................................
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TABLE 6—COEFFICIENTS FOR MANDATORY SUBCONFIGURATION TARGET STANDARDS—Continued
Model year(s)
c
d
Phase 1 Alternative 2—Phased-in Target Standards
CI Vehicle Coefficients
2016 .............................................................................................................................................................
2017 .............................................................................................................................................................
2018 to 2020 ................................................................................................................................................
0.0004519
0.0004371
0.0004086
3.477
3.369
3.143
0.0005277
0.0005176
0.0004951
4.073
3.983
3.815
0.0003988
0.0003880
0.0003792
0.0003694
0.0003605
0.0003507
0.0003418
3.065
2.986
2.917
2.839
2.770
2.701
2.633
0.0004827
0.0004703
0.0004591
0.0004478
0.0004366
0.0004253
0.0004152
3.725
3.623
3.533
3.443
3.364
3.274
3.196
SI Vehicle Coefficients
2016 .............................................................................................................................................................
2017 .............................................................................................................................................................
2018 to 2020 ................................................................................................................................................
Phase 2—Fixed Target Standards
CI Vehicle Coefficients
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
.............................................................................................................................................................
.............................................................................................................................................................
.............................................................................................................................................................
.............................................................................................................................................................
.............................................................................................................................................................
.............................................................................................................................................................
and later ..............................................................................................................................................
SI Vehicle Coefficients
.............................................................................................................................................................
.............................................................................................................................................................
.............................................................................................................................................................
.............................................................................................................................................................
.............................................................................................................................................................
.............................................................................................................................................................
and later ..............................................................................................................................................
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(3) Fleet average fuel consumption
standard. (i) Calculate each
manufacturer’s fleet average fuel
consumption standard for conventional
and advanced technology fleets
separately based on the
Subconfiguration Target Standardi = fuel
consumption standard for each group of
vehicles with same payload, towing
capacity and drive configuration (gallons
per 100 miles).
Volumei = production volume of each unique
subconfiguration of a model type based
upon payload, towing capacity and drive
configuration.
(A) A manufacturer may group
together subconfigurations that have the
same test weight (ETW), GVWR, and
GCWR. Calculate work factor and target
value assuming a curb weight equal to
two times ETW minus GVWR.
(B) A manufacturer may group
together other subconfigurations if it
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subconfiguration target standards
specified in paragraph (a)(2) of this
section, weighted to production
volumes and averaged using the
following equation combining all the
applicable vehicles in a manufacturer’s
U.S.-directed fleet (compressionignition, spark-ignition and advanced
technology vehicles) for a given model
year, rounded to the nearest 0.001
gallons per 100 miles:
uses the lowest target value calculated
for any of the subconfigurations.
(ii) For Phase 1, manufacturers must
select an alternative for
subconfiguration target standards at the
same time they submit the model year
2016 pre-model year Report, specified
in § 535.8. Once selected, the decision
cannot be reversed and the
manufacturer must continue to comply
with the same alternative for subsequent
model years.
(4) Voluntary standards. (i)
Manufacturers may choose voluntarily
to comply early with fuel consumption
standards for model years 2013 through
2015, as determined in paragraphs
(a)(4)(iii) and (iv) of this section, for
example, in order to begin accumulating
credits through over-compliance with
the applicable standard. A manufacturer
choosing early compliance must comply
with all the vehicles and engines it
manufactures in each regulatory
category for a given model year.
(ii) A manufacturer must declare its
intent to voluntarily comply with fuel
consumption standards at the same time
it submits a Pre-Model Report, prior to
the compliance model year beginning as
specified in § 535.8; and, once selected,
the decision cannot be reversed and the
manufacturer must continue to comply
for each subsequent model year for all
the vehicles and engines it
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2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
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manufactures in each regulatory
category for a given model year.
(iii) Calculate separate
subconfiguration target standards for
compression-ignition and spark-ignition
vehicles for model years 2013 through
2015 using the equation in paragraph
(a)(2)(ii) of this section, substituting the
appropriate values for the coefficients in
the following table as appropriate:
TABLE 7—COEFFICIENTS FOR VOLUNTARY SUBCONFIGURATION TARGET STANDARDS
Model year(s)
c
d
CI Vehicle Coefficients
2013 and 14 .................................................................................................................................................
2015 .............................................................................................................................................................
0.0004695
0.0004656
3.615
3.595
0.0005424
0.0005390
4.175
4.152
SI Vehicle Coefficients
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2013 and 14 .................................................................................................................................................
2015 .............................................................................................................................................................
(iv) Calculate the fleet average fuel
consumption standards for model years
2013 through 2015 using the equation in
paragraph (a)(3) of this section.
(5) Exclusion of vehicles not certified
as complete vehicles. The vehicle
standards in paragraph (a) of this
section do not apply for vehicles that
are chassis-certified with respect to
EPA’s criteria pollutant test procedure
in 40 CFR part 86, subpart S. Any
chassis-certified vehicles must comply
with the vehicle standards and
requirements of paragraph (b) of this
section and the engine standards of
paragraph (d) of this section for engines
used in these vehicles. A vehicle
manufacturer choosing to comply with
this paragraph and that is not the engine
manufacturer is required to notify the
engine manufacturers that their engines
are subject to paragraph (d) of this
section and that it intends to use their
engines in excluded vehicles.
(6) Optional certification under this
section. Manufacturers may certify any
complete or cab-complete Class 2b
through 5 vehicles weighing at or below
19,500 pounds GVWR and any
incomplete vehicles approved by EPA
for inclusion under this paragraph to the
same testing and standard that applies
to a comparable complete sister vehicles
as determined in accordance in 40 CFR
86.1819–14(j). Calculate the target
standard value under paragraph (a)(2) of
this section based on the same work
factor value that applies for the
complete sister vehicle.
(7) Loose engines. This paragraph
applies for model year 2020 and earlier
spark-ignition engines identical to
engines used in vehicles certified to the
standards of this paragraph (a), where
manufacturers sell such engines as loose
engines or installed in incomplete
vehicles that are not cab-complete
vehicles in accordance with 40 CFR
86.1819–14(k)(8). Vehicles in which
those engines are installed are subject to
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standards in paragraph (b) of this
section and the engines are subject to
standards in paragraph (d) of this
section. Loose engines produced each
model year must comply with
provisions of 40 CFR 86.1819–14(k)(8).
(8) Alternative fuel vehicle
conversions. Alternative fuel vehicle
conversions may demonstrate
compliance with the standards of this
part or other alternative compliance
approaches allowed by EPA in 40 CFR
85.525.
(9) Useful life. The following useful
life values apply for the standards of
this section:
(i) 120,000 miles or 10 years,
whichever comes first, for Class 2b
through Class 3 heavy-duty pickup
trucks and vans certified to Phase 1
standards.
(ii) 150,000 miles or 15 years,
whichever comes first, for Class 2b
through Class 3 heavy-duty pickup
trucks and vans certified to Phase 2
standards.
(iii) For Phase 1 credits that you
calculate based on a useful life of
120,000 miles, multiply any banked
credits that you carry forward for use
into the Phase 2 program by 1.25. For
Phase 1 credit deficits that you generate
based on a useful life of 120,000 miles
multiply the credit deficit by 1.25 if
offsetting the shortfall with Phase 2
credits.
(10) Optional standards. For model
years 2013 through 2019, manufacturers
may calculate target standards ‘‘c’’
coefficients rounded to the nearest six
decimal places (0.000001) and ‘‘d’’
coefficients rounded to the nearest two
decimal places (0.01) based on the
standards listed in tables 6 or 7. If a
manufacturer chooses this option, the
fleet standard calculated in accordance
with paragraph (a)(3) of this section and
fuel consumption rate calculated in
accordance with paragraph (a)(5) of this
section must be rounded to the nearest
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0.01 gallons per 100 miles. If a
manufacturer chooses this provision it
will be applicable for all model years
2013 through 2019.
(b) Heavy-duty vocational vehicles.
Each manufacturer building a complete
or incomplete heavy-duty vocational
vehicles shall comply with the fuel
consumption standards in this
paragraph (b) expressed in gallons per
1000 ton-miles. Engines used in heavyduty vocational vehicles shall comply
with the standards in paragraph (d) of
this section. Each vehicle must be
manufactured to comply for its useful
life.
(1) Mandatory standards. Heavy-duty
vocational vehicles produced for Phase
1 must comply with the fuel
consumption standards in paragraph
(b)(3) of this section. For Phase 2, each
vehicle manufacturer of heavy-duty
vocational vehicles must comply with
the fuel consumption standards in
paragraph (b)(4) of this section.
(i) For model years 2016 to 2020, the
heavy-duty vocational vehicles are
subdivided by GVWR into three
regulatory subcategories as defined in
§ 535.4, each with its own assigned
standard.
(ii) For model years 2021 and later,
the heavy-duty vocational vehicle
category is subdivided into 21
regulatory subcategories depending
upon whether vehicles are equipped
with a compression or spark ignition
engine, as defined in § 535.4. Each
subcategory has its own assigned
standard.
(iii) For purposes of certifying
vehicles to fuel consumption standards,
manufacturers must divide their
product lines in each regulatory
subcategory into vehicle families that
have similar emissions and fuel
consumption features, as specified by
EPA in 40 CFR part 1037, subpart C.
These families will be subject to the
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applicable standards. Each vehicle
family is limited to a single model year.
(2) Voluntary compliance. (i) For
model years 2013 through 2015, a
manufacturer may choose voluntarily to
comply early with the fuel consumption
standards provided in paragraph (b)(3)
of this section. For example, a
manufacturer may choose to comply
early in order to begin accumulating
credits through over-compliance with
the applicable standards. A
manufacturer choosing early
40743
continue to comply for each subsequent
model year for all the vehicles and
engines it manufacturers in each
regulatory category for a given model
year.
(3) Regulatory subcategory standards
for model years 2013 to 2020. The
mandatory and voluntary fuel
consumption standards for heavy-duty
vocational vehicles are given in the
following table:
compliance must comply with all the
vehicles and engines it manufacturers in
each regulatory category for a given
model year.
(ii) A manufacturer must declare its
intent to voluntarily comply with fuel
consumption standards and identify its
plans to comply before it submits its
first application for a certificate of
conformity for the respective model year
as specified in § 535.8; and, once
selected, the decision cannot be
reversed and the manufacturer must
TABLE 8—PHASE 1 VOCATIONAL VEHICLE FUEL CONSUMPTION STANDARDS
[Gallons per 1000 ton-miles]
LHD Vocational vehicles
Regulatory subcategories
MHD Vocational vehicles
HHD Vocational vehicles
38.1139
22.9862
22.2004
36.6405
22.1022
21.8075
MHD Vocational vehicles
HHD Vocational vehicles
29.0766
29.9607
31.2377
18.4676
18.6640
18.2711
19.4499
19.6464
18.5658
36.0077
37.0204
38.5957
22.8424
23.0674
22.6173
24.0801
24.3052
22.9549
27.8978
28.6837
29.8625
17.5835
17.7800
17.4853
18.6640
18.8605
17.8782
35.1075
36.1202
37.5830
22.1672
22.3923
22.0547
23.4050
23.6300
22.3923
26.7191
27.5049
28.6837
16.8959
17.0923
16.6994
17.8782
17.9764
17.0923
33.6446
34.6574
21.2670
21.4921
22.0547
22.2797
Model Years 2013 to 2016 Voluntary Standards
Standard ......................................................................................................................................
Model Years 2017 to 2020 Mandatory Standards
Standard ......................................................................................................................................
(4) Regulatory subcategory standards
for model years 2021 and later. The
mandatory fuel consumption standards
for heavy-duty vocational vehicles are
given in the following table:
TABLE 9—PHASE 2 VOCATIONAL VEHICLE FUEL CONSUMPTION STANDARDS
[gallons per 1000 ton-miles]
LHD Vocational vehicles
Duty cycle
Model Years 2021 to 2023 Standards for CI Vehicles
Urban ...........................................................................................................................................
Multi-Purpose ...............................................................................................................................
Regional .......................................................................................................................................
Model Years 2021 to 2023 Standards for SI Vehicles
Urban ...........................................................................................................................................
Multi-Purpose ...............................................................................................................................
Regional .......................................................................................................................................
Model Years 2024 to 2026 Standards for CI Vehicles
Urban ...........................................................................................................................................
Multi-Purpose ...............................................................................................................................
Regional .......................................................................................................................................
Model Years 2024 to 2026 Standards for SI Vehicles
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Urban ...........................................................................................................................................
Multi-Purpose ...............................................................................................................................
Regional .......................................................................................................................................
Model Years 2027 and later Standards for CI Vehicles
Urban ...........................................................................................................................................
Multi-Purpose ...............................................................................................................................
Regional .......................................................................................................................................
Model Years 2027 and later Standards for SI Vehicles
Urban ...........................................................................................................................................
Multi-Purpose ...............................................................................................................................
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TABLE 9—PHASE 2 VOCATIONAL VEHICLE FUEL CONSUMPTION STANDARDS—Continued
[gallons per 1000 ton-miles]
LHD Vocational vehicles
Duty cycle
Regional .......................................................................................................................................
(5) Regulatory subcategory standards
for model year 2021 and later
emergency vehicles. The mandatory fuel
consumption standards for heavy-duty
MHD Vocational vehicles
HHD Vocational vehicles
36.1202
21.0420
21.1545
emergency vehicles are given in the
following table:
TABLE 10—PHASE 2 EMERGENCY VEHICLE FUEL CONSUMPTION STANDARDS
[Gallons per 1000 ton-miles] *
Regulatory subcategories
LHD Vocational vehicles
MHD Vocational vehicles
HHD Vocational vehicles
Model Years 2021 and later Emergency Vehicle Standards ......................................................
30.6483
19.1552
21.1198
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* Vehicles certified to these alternative standards may not generate fuel consumption credits.
(6) Subfamily standards.
Manufacturers may specify a family
emission limit (FEL) in terms of fuel
consumption for each vehicle
subfamily. The FEL may not be less than
the result of fuel consumption modeling
from 40 CFR 1037.520. The FELs is the
fuel consumption standards for the
vehicle subfamily instead of the
standards specified in paragraph (b)(3)
and (4) of this section and can be used
for calculating fuel consumption credits
in accordance with § 535.7.
(7) Vehicle families for advanced and
innovative technologies. For vocational
vehicles subject to Phase 1 standards,
manufacturers must create separate
vehicle families for vehicles that contain
advanced or off-cycle technologies and
group those vehicles together in a
vehicle family if they use the same
advanced or innovative technologies.
(8) Certifying across service classes. A
manufacturer may optionally certify a
vocational vehicle to the standards and
useful life applicable to a heavier
vehicle service class (or regulatory
subcategory changes such as complying
with the heavy heavy-duty standard
instead of medium heavy-duty
standard), provided the manufacturer
does not generate credits with the
vehicle. If a manufacturer includes
lighter vehicles in a credit-generating
subfamily (with an FEL below the
standard), they must exclude their
production volume from the credit
calculation. Note that if the subfamily is
a credit-using subfamily, the
manufacturer must include the
production volume of the lighter
vehicles in the credit calculations.
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(9) Off-road exemptions. Heavy-duty
vocational vehicles, including
vocational tractors meeting the off-road
criteria in § 535.3 are exempted from the
requirements in this paragraph (b) of
this section, but the engines in these
vehicles must meet the requirements of
paragraph (d) of this section.
Manufacturers may request approval in
accordance with the provisions in 40
CFR 1037.150 and 40 CFR 1037.210 to
determine if they are producing vehicles
that meet the criteria for the heavy-duty
off-road vehicle exemption. A
manufacturer’s request must be
submitted in advance of the model year,
or early enough in the model year, to
ensure that an application for a
certificate of conformity, as required in
40 CFR 1037.201, can be submitted if
the approval is denied. The approval is
a collaboration between NHTSA and
EPA and can be given informally or
through a formal determination. If a
manufacturer requests a formal
determination, the manufacturer must
submit the required documentation in
40 CFR 1037.150 to both agenices.
(10) Small business alternative fuel
engine converters. Small business
alternative fuel engine converters may
delay implementation of the standards
in paragraph (b)(4) of this section for
one year for each increase in stringency
throughout the proposed rule.
(11) Useful life. The following useful
life values apply for the standards of
this section:
(i) 110,000 miles or 10 years,
whichever comes first, for Class 2b
through Class 5 vocational vehicles
certified to Phase 1 standards.
(ii) 150,000 miles or 15 years,
whichever comes first, for Class 2b
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through Class 5 vocational vehicles
certified to Phase 2 standards.
(iii) 185,000 miles or 10 years,
whichever comes first, for Class 6 and
Class 7 vehicles above 19,500 pounds
GVWR and at or below 33,000 pounds
GVWR for Phase 1 and for Phase 2.
(iv) 435,000 miles or 10 years,
whichever comes first, for Class 8
vehicles above 33,000 pounds GVWR
for Phase 1 and for Phase 2.
(v) For Phase 1 credits that you
calculate based on a useful life of
110,000 miles, multiply any banked
credits that you carry forward for use
into the Phase 2 program by 1.36. For
Phase 1 credit deficits that you generate
based on a useful life of 110,000 miles
multiply the credit deficit by 1.36, if
offsetting the shortfall with Phase 2
credits.
(12) Recreational vehicles.
Recreational vehicles manufactured
after model year 2020 must comply with
the fuel consumption standards of this
section. Manufacturers producing these
vehicles may also certify to fuel
consumption standards from 2014
through model year 2020.
Manufacturers may earn credits
retroactively for early compliance with
fuel consumption standards. Once
selected, a manufacturer cannot reverse
the decision and the manufacturer must
continue to comply for each subsequent
model year for all the vehicles it
manufacturers in each regulatory
subcategory for a given model year.
(13) Optional standards. (i) For model
years 2013 through 2019, manufacturers
have the option to use heavy-duty
vocational vehicle fuel consumption
standards given in the following table:
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TABLE 11—OPTIONAL VOCATIONAL VEHICLE FUEL CONSUMPTION STANDARDS
[Gallons per 1,000 ton-miles]
Regulatory subcategories
LH vehicles
MH vehicles
HH vehicles
Model Years 2017 to 2019 Mandatory Standards
Standard ......................................................................................................................................
36.7
22.1
21.8
38.1
23.0
22.2
38.1
23.0
22.2
Model Year 2016 Mandatory Standard
Standard ......................................................................................................................................
Model Years 2013 to 2015 Voluntary Standards
Standard ......................................................................................................................................
(ii) If a manufacturer chooses this
option, the fuel consumption rate
calculated in accordance with 49 CFR
535.6(b)(4) must be rounded to the
nearest 0.1 gallons per 1,000 ton-miles.
(iii) If a manufacturer chooses this
option, it must apply these same
standards for each model year from
2013 through 2019.
(c) Truck tractors. Each manufacturer
building truck tractors, except
vocational tractors, with a GVWR above
26,000 pounds shall comply with the
fuel consumption standards in this
paragraph (c) expressed in gallons per
1000 ton-miles. Each vehicle must be
manufactured to comply for its useful
life.
(1) Mandatory standards. For model
years 2016 and later, each manufacturer
of truck tractors must comply with the
fuel consumption standards in
paragraph (c)(3) of this section.
(i) Based on the roof height and the
design of the cab, truck tractors are
divided into subcatagories as described
in § 535.4. The standards that apply to
each regulatory subcategory are shown
in paragraphs (c)(2) and (3) of this
section, each with its own assigned
standard.
(ii) For purposes of certifying vehicles
to fuel consumption standards,
manufacturers must divide their
product lines in each regulatory
subcategory into vehicles families that
have similar emissions and fuel
consumption features, as specified by
EPA in 40 CFR 1037.230, and these
families will be subject to the applicable
standards. Each vehicle family is
limited to a single model year.
(iii) Standards for truck tractor
engines are given in paragraph (d) of
this section.
(2) Voluntary compliance. (i) For
model years 2013 through 2015, a
manufacturer may choose voluntarily to
comply early with the fuel consumption
standards provided in paragraph (c)(3)
of this section. For example, a
manufacturer may choose to comply
early in order to begin accumulating
credits through over-compliance with
the applicable standards. A
manufacturer choosing early
compliance must comply with all the
vehicles and engines it manufacturers in
each regulatory category for a given
model year.
(ii) A manufacturer must declare its
intent to voluntarily comply with fuel
consumption standards and identify its
plans to comply before it submits its
first application for a certificate of
conformity for the respective model year
as specified in § 535.8; and, once
selected, the decision cannot be
reversed and the manufacturer must
continue to comply for each subsequent
model year for all the vehicles and
engines it manufacturers in each
regulatory category for a given model
year.
(3) Regulatory subcategory standards.
The fuel consumption standards for
truck tractors, except for vocational
tractors, are given in the following table:
TABLE 12—TRUCK TRACTOR FUEL CONSUMPTION STANDARDS
[Gallons per 1,000 ton-miles]
Day cab
Sleeper cab
Regulatory subcategories
Heavy-haul
Class 7
Class 8
Class 8
Phase 1—Model Years 2013 to 2015 Voluntary Standards
Low Roof ..........................................................................................................
Mid Roof ..........................................................................................................
High Roof .........................................................................................................
10.5108
11.6896
12.1807
7.9568
8.6444
9.0373
6.6798
7.4656
7.3674
........................
........................
........................
7.9568
8.6444
9.0373
6.6798
7.4656
7.3674
........................
........................
........................
7.8585
8.4479
8.7426
6.4833
7.1709
7.0727
........................
........................
........................
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Phase 1—Model Year 2016 Mandatory Standard
Low Roof ..........................................................................................................
Mid Roof ..........................................................................................................
High Roof .........................................................................................................
10.5108
11.6896
12.1807
Phase 1—Model Years 2017 to 2020 Mandatory Standards
Low Roof ..........................................................................................................
Mid Roof ..........................................................................................................
High Roof .........................................................................................................
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10.2161
11.2967
11.7878
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TABLE 12—TRUCK TRACTOR FUEL CONSUMPTION STANDARDS—Continued
[Gallons per 1,000 ton-miles]
Day cab
Sleeper cab
Regulatory subcategories
Heavy-haul
Class 7
Class 8
Class 8
Phase 2—Model Years 2021 to 2023 Mandatory Standards
Low Roof ..........................................................................................................
Mid Roof ..........................................................................................................
High Roof .........................................................................................................
9.5285
10.5108
10.7073
7.6621
8.2515
8.4479
6.8762
7.6621
7.5639
5.3045
........................
........................
7.0727
7.6621
7.7603
6.2868
6.9745
6.8762
5.1081
........................
........................
6.0904
6.7780
6.5815
5.0098
........................
........................
Phase 2—Model Years 2024 to 2026 Mandatory Standards
Low Roof ..........................................................................................................
Mid Roof ..........................................................................................................
High Roof .........................................................................................................
8.8409
9.8232
9.9214
Phase 2—Model Years 2027 and later Mandatory Standards
Low Roof ..........................................................................................................
Mid Roof ..........................................................................................................
High Roof .........................................................................................................
(4) Subfamily standards.
Manufacturers may specify a family
emission limit (FEL) in terms of fuel
consumption for each vehicle
subfamily. The FEL may not be less than
the result of fuel consumption modeling
from 40 CFR 1037.520. The FEL serves
as the fuel consumption standards for
the vehicle subfamily instead of the
standards specified in paragraph (c)(3)
of this section and can be used for
calculating fuel consumption credits in
accordance with § 535.7.
(5) Vehicle families for advanced and
innovative technologies. For tractors
subject to Phase 1 standards,
manufacturers must create separate
vehicle families for vehicles that contain
advanced or off-cycle technologies and
group those vehicles together in a
vehicle family if they use the same
advanced or innovative technologies.
8.5462
9.4303
9.4303
6.8762
7.4656
7.4656
with requirements for heavy-duty
vocational vehicles specified in
paragraphs (b) and (d) of this section.
Class 7 and Class 8 tractors certified or
exempted as vocational tractors are
limited in production to no more than
21,000 vehicles in any three consecutive
model years. If a manufacturer is
determined as not applying this
allowance in good faith by EPA in its
applications for certification in
accordance with 40 CFR 1037.205 and
1037.610, a manufacturer must comply
with the tractor fuel consumption
standards in paragraph (c)(3) of this
section.
(8) Optional standards. (i) For Phase
1, manufacturers may use the heavyduty truck tractor fuel consumption
standards given in the following table:
(6) Certifying across service classes. A
manufacturer may optionally certify a
tractor to the standards and useful life
applicable to a heavier vehicle service
class (or regulatory subcategory changes
such as complying with the Class 8 daycab tractor standard instead of Class 7
day-cab tractor), provided the
manufacturer does not generate credits
with the vehicle. If a manufacturer
includes lighter vehicles in a creditgenerating subfamily (with an FEL
below the standard), exclude their
production volume from the credit
calculation. Note that if the subfamily is
a credit-using subfamily, the
manufacturer must include the
production volume of the lighter
vehicles in the credit calculations.
(7) Vocational tractors. Tractors
meeting the definition of vocational
tractors in 49 CFR 523.2 must comply
TABLE 13— OPTIONAL TRUCK TRACTOR FUEL CONSUMPTION STANDARDS FOR MODEL YEARS 2013 THROUGH 2019
[Gallons per 1,000 ton-miles]
Day cab
Sleeper cab
Regulatory subcategories
Class 7
Class 8
Class 8
Model Years 2017 to 2019 Mandatory Standards
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Low Roof ....................................................................................................................................
Mid Roof ....................................................................................................................................
High Roof ...................................................................................................................................
10.2
11.3
11.8
7.8
8.4
8.7
6.5
7.2
7.1
10.5
11.7
12.2
8
8.7
9
6.7
7.4
7.3
10.5
11.7
8
8.7
6.7
7.4
Model Years 2016 Mandatory Standards
Low Roof ....................................................................................................................................
Mid Roof ....................................................................................................................................
High Roof ...................................................................................................................................
Model Years 2013 to 2015 Voluntary Standards
Low Roof ....................................................................................................................................
Mid Roof ....................................................................................................................................
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TABLE 13— OPTIONAL TRUCK TRACTOR FUEL CONSUMPTION STANDARDS FOR MODEL YEARS 2013 THROUGH 2019—
Continued
[Gallons per 1,000 ton-miles]
Day cab
Sleeper cab
Regulatory subcategories
Class 7
High Roof ...................................................................................................................................
(ii) If a manufacturer chooses this
option, the fuel consumption rate
calculated in accordance with
§ 535.6(b)(4) must be rounded to the
nearest 0.1 gallons per 1,000 ton-miles.
(iii) If a manufacturer chooses this
option, it must apply these same
standards for each model year from
2013 through 2019.
(9) Useful life. The following useful
life values apply for the standards of
this section:
(i) 185,000 miles or 10 years,
whichever comes first, for Class 6 and
Class 7 tractors above 19,500 pounds
GVWR and at or below 33,000 pounds
GVWR for Phase 1 and for Phase 2.
(ii) 435,000 miles or 10 years,
whichever comes first, for Class 8
tractors above 33,000 pounds GVWR for
Phase 1 and for Phase 2.
(d) Heavy-duty engines. Each
manufacturer of heavy-duty engines
shall comply with the fuel consumption
standards in this paragraph (d) of this
section expressed in gallons per 100
horsepower-hour. Each engine must be
manufactured to comply for its useful
life. The provisions of this part apply to
all new 2014 model year and later
heavy-duty engines. This includes
engines fueled by conventional and
alternative fuels for engines that will be
installed in heavy-duty vehicles above
14,000 pounds GVWR. These provisions
also apply for engines that will be
installed in heavy-duty glider vehicles
at or below 14,000 pounds GVWR Each
engine manufactured for use in a heavy-
duty tractor or vocational vehicle must
be certified to the primary intended
service class that it is designed for in
accordance with 40 CFR 1036.108 and
1036.140.
(1) Mandatory standards.
Manufacturers of heavy-duty engines
shall comply with the mandatory fuel
consumption standards in paragraphs
(d)(3) through (6) of this section for
model years 2017 and later for
compression-ignition engines and for
model years 2016 and later for sparkignition engines.
(i) The heavy-duty engine regulatory
category is divided into six regulatory
subcategories, five compression-ignition
subcategories and one spark-ignition
subcategory, as shown in Table 14 of
this section.
(ii) Separate standards exist for
engines manufactured for use in heavyduty vocational vehicles and in truck
tractors.
(iii) For purposes of certifying engines
to fuel consumption standards,
manufacturers must divide their
product lines in each regulatory
subcategory into engine families that
have similar fuel consumption features
and the same primary intended service
class, as specified by EPA in 40 CFR
1036.230, and these families will be
subject to the same standards. Each
engine family is limited to a single
model year.
(2) Voluntary compliance. (i) For
model years 2013 through 2016 for
compression-ignition engines, and for
Class 8
12.2
Class 8
9
7.3
model year 2015 for spark-ignition
engines, a manufacturer may choose
voluntarily to comply with the fuel
consumption standards provided in
paragraph (d)(3) through (5) of this
section. For example, a manufacturer
may choose to comply early in order to
begin accumulating credits through
over-compliance with the applicable
standards. A manufacturer choosing
early compliance must comply with all
the vehicles and engines it
manufacturers in each regulatory
category for a given model year except
in model year 2013 the manufacturer
may comply with individual engine
families as specified in 40 CFR
1036.150(a)(2).
(ii) A manufacturer must declare its
intent to voluntarily comply with fuel
consumption standards and identify its
plans to comply before it submits its
first application for a certificate of
conformity for the respective model year
as specified in § 535.8; and, once
selected, the decision cannot be
reversed and the manufacturer must
continue to comply for each subsequent
model year for all the vehicles and
engines it manufacturers in each
regulatory category for a given model
year.
(3) Regulatory subcategory standards.
The primary fuel consumption
standards for heavy-duty engines are
given in the following table:
TABLE 14—PRIMARY HEAVY-DUTY ENGINE FUEL CONSUMPTION STANDARDS
[Gallons per 100 hp-hr]
Regulatory subcategory
Application
LHD CI
engines and
all other engines
MHD CI engines and all other
engines
Vocational
Tractor
HHD CI engines and all other
engines
SI engines
Vocational
Tractor
All
........................
5.5697
........................
4.666
7.0552
........................
........................
5.4519
........................
4.5187
7.0552
7.0552
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Vocational
Phase 1—Voluntary Standards
2015 .........................................................
2013 to 2016 ............................................
........................
5.8939
........................
5.8939
........................
4.9312
Phase 1—Mandatory Standards
2016 .........................................................
2017 to 2020 ............................................
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5.6582
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5.6582
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........................
4.7839
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TABLE 14—PRIMARY HEAVY-DUTY ENGINE FUEL CONSUMPTION STANDARDS—Continued
[Gallons per 100 hp-hr]
Regulatory subcategory
LHD CI
engines and
all other engines
Application
MHD CI engines and all other
engines
Vocational
Tractor
HHD CI engines and all other
engines
Vocational
Tractor
SI engines
All
Vocational
Phase 2—Mandatory Standards
2021 to 2023 ............................................
2024 to 2026 ............................................
2027 and later ..........................................
5.5501
5.4617
5.4322
(4) Alternate subcategory standards.
The alternative fuel consumption
standards for heavy-duty compressionignition engines are as follows:
(i) Manufacturers entering the
voluntary program in model years 2014
through 2016, may choose to certify
compression-ignition engine families
unable to meet standards provided in
paragraph (d)(3) of this section to the
alternative fuel consumption standards
of this paragraph (d)(4).
(ii) Manufacturers may not certify
engines to these alternate standards if
they are part of an averaging set in
which they carry a balance of banked
credits. For purposes of this section,
5.5501
5.4617
5.4322
4.7053
4.6071
4.5776
manufacturers are deemed to carry
credits in an averaging set if they carry
credits from advance technology that are
allowed to be used in that averaging set
in accordance with § 535.7(d)(12).
(iii) The emission standards of this
section are determined as specified by
EPA in 40 CFR 1036.620(a) through (c)
and should be converted to equivalent
fuel consumption values.
(5) Alternate phase-in standards.
Manufacturers have the option to
comply with EPA emissions standards
for compression-ignition engines using
an alternative phase-in schedule that
correlates with EPA’s OBD standards. If
a manufacturer chooses to use the
5.3438
5.2652
5.2358
4.4499
4.3517
4.3320
7.0552
7.0552
7.0552
alternative phase-in schedule for
meeting EPA standards and optionally
chooses to comply early with the
NHTSA fuel consumption program, it
must use the same phase-in schedule
beginning in model year 2013 for fuel
consumption standards and must
remain in the program for each model
year thereafter until model year 2020.
The fuel consumption standard for each
model year of the alternative phase-in
schedule is provided in Table 15 of this
section. Note that engines certified to
these standards are not eligible for early
credits under § 535.7.
TABLE 15—PHASE 1 ALTERNATIVE PHASE-IN CI ENGINE FUEL CONSUMPTION STANDARDS
[Gallons per 100 hp-hr]
Tractors
LHD engines
Model Years 2013 to 2015 ..........................................................................................................
Model Years 2016 to 2020 † ........................................................................................................
Vocational
MHD engines
HHD engines
5.0295
4.7839
4.7642
4.5187
MHD engines
HHD engines
6.0707
5.6582
5.6680
5.4519
NA
NA
LHD engines
Model Years 2013 to 2015 ..........................................................................................................
Model Years 2016 to 2020† .........................................................................................................
6.0707
5.6582
Note: † These alternate standards for 2016 and later are the same as the otherwise applicable standards through 2020.
(6) Optional standards. (i) For model
years 2013 through 2020, manufacturers
may use heavy-duty engine fuel
consumption standards given in the
following tables:
TABLE 16—OPTIONAL PRIMARY HEAVY-DUTY ENGINE FUEL CONSUMPTION STANDARDS
[Gallons per 100 hp-hr]
LHD CI engines
Application
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Regulatory subcategory
Vocational
MHD CI engines
Vocational
HHD CI engines
Tractor
Vocational
SI Engines
Tractor
All
Mandatory Standards
Model Years .....................
2017 to 2020
Standards .........................
5.66
5.66
4.78
2016 to 2019
5.45
4.52
7.06
Voluntary Standards
Model Years .....................
2013 to 2016
Standards .........................
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TABLE 17—ALTERNATIVE PHASE-IN CI ENGINE FUEL CONSUMPTION STANDARDS
[Gallons per 100 hp-hr]
Truck Tractors
LHD CI engines
MHD CI engines
Model Years 2013 to 2015 ..............................................
Model Years 2016 to 2020 † ............................................
Vocational vehicles ..........................................................
Model Years 2013 to 2015 ..............................................
Model Years 2016 and later † ..........................................
NA ......................................
NA ......................................
LHD CI Engines ................
6.07 ....................................
5.66 ....................................
5.03 ....................................
4.78 ....................................
MHD CI Engines ...............
6.07 ....................................
5.66 ....................................
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(ii) If a manufacturer chooses this
option, the fuel consumption rate
calculated in accordance with
§ 535.6(c)(4) must be rounded to the
nearest 0.01 gallon per 100 hp-hr.
(iii) If a manufacturer chooses this
option, it must apply these same
standards for each model year from
2013 through 2020.
(7) Specialty vehicles. Manufacturers
of specialty vehicles as identified in 40
CFR 1037.605 may comply with fuel
consumption standards by complying
with alternate emission standards that
are equivalent to standards that apply
for non-road engines as identified in 40
CFR 1037.605, and using § 535.6 and
exercising good engineering judgment to
determine equivalent fuel consumption
standards.
(8) Alternative fuel conversions.
Engines that have been converted to
operate on alternative fuels may
demonstrate compliance with the
standards of this part or other
alternative compliance approaches
allowed by EPA in 40 CFR 85.525.
(9) Useful life. The following useful
life values apply for the standards of
this section:
(i) 110,000 miles or 10 years,
whichever comes first, for engines used
in Class 2b through Class 5 vehicles
certified to Phase 1 standards.
(ii) 150,000 miles or 15 years,
whichever comes first, for engines used
in Class 2b through Class 5 vehicles
certified to Phase 2 standards.
(iii) 185,000 miles or 10 years,
whichever comes first, for engines used
in Class 6 and Class 7 vehicles above
19,500 pounds GVWR and at or below
33,000 pounds GVWR for Phase 1 and
for Phase 2.
(iv) 435,000 miles or 10 years,
whichever comes first, for engines used
in Class 8 vehicles above 33,000 pounds
GVWR for Phase 1 and for Phase 2.
(v) For Phase 1 credits that you
calculate based on a useful life of
110,000 miles, multiply any banked
credits that you carry forward for use
into the Phase 2 program by 1.36. For
Phase 1 credit deficits that you generate
based on a useful life of 110,000 miles
multiply the credit deficit by 1.36, if
offsetting the shortfall with Phase 2
credits.
(e) Heavy-duty Trailers. Each
manufacturer of heavy-duty trailers as
specified in 49 CFR 523.10, shall
comply with the fuel consumption
standards in paragraph (e)(1) of this
section expressed in gallons per 1000
ton-miles. Each vehicle must be
manufactured to comply for its useful
life. There are no Phase 1 standards for
trailers. Different levels of stringency
apply for box vans depending on
features that may affect aerodynamic
performance.
(1) Fuel consumption standards.
Trailers manufactured in model year
2021 and later must comply with the
fuel consumption standards of this
section. For model years 2018 through
2020, trailer manufacturers have the
option to voluntarily comply with the
fuel consumption standards of this
section.
(i) Non-aero and non-box trailer
standards. Non-aero and non-box
trailers must comply with the regulatory
subcategory fuel consumption standards
in this section.
(A) ‘‘Non-aero trailers’’ for trailers 35
feet or longer are box vans that have a
rear lift gate or rear hinged ramp, and
at least one of the following side
features: Side lift gate, belly box, sidemounted pull-out platform, steps for
HHD CI engines
4.76
4.52
HHD CI Engines
5.67
5.45
side-door access, or a drop-deck design.
‘‘Non-aero trailers’’ for trailers less than
35 feet long are refrigerated box vans
with at least one of the side features
identified for longer trailers.
(B) Non-box trailers and non-aero
trailers must meet the following
standards:
(1) Trailers must use qualified
automatic tire inflation systems with all
load-bearing wheels.
(2) Trailers must use tires with a
TRRL at or below 4.7 kg/ton. Through
model year 2023, trailers may instead
use tires with a TRRL at or below
5.1 kg/ton.
(ii) Partial-aero trailer standards.
Partial-aero trailers must comply with
the regulatory subcategory fuel
consumption standards as follows:
(A) ‘‘Partial-aero trailers’’ are box vans
that have at least one of the side features
identified in paragraph (e)(1)(i)(A) of
this section. Long box vans also qualify
as partial-aero trailers if they have a rear
lift gate or rear hinged ramp.
(B) Partial-aero trailers may continue
to meet the 2024 standards in 2027 and
later model years. This provision does
not apply for short refrigerated vans
because their standard does not change
in 2027.
(iii) Full-aero trailers. Full-aero
trailers comply with the regulatory
subcategory fuel consumption standards
as follows:
(A) ‘‘Full-aero trailers’’ are box vans
that do not meet the specifications for
non-areo or partial-aero trailers in
paragraph (e)(1)(i)(A) or (e)(1)(ii)(A) of
this section.
(B) Fuel consumption standards apply
for full-aero trailers as specified in the
following table:
TABLE 18—PHASE 2 FUEL AERO TRAILER FUEL CONSUMPTION STANDARDS
[Gallons per 1,000 ton-miles]
Dry van
Refrigerated van
Model years
Long
Short
Long
Short
Voluntary Standards
2018 to 2020 ....................................................................................................
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TABLE 18—PHASE 2 FUEL AERO TRAILER FUEL CONSUMPTION STANDARDS—Continued
[Gallons per 1,000 ton-miles]
Dry van
Refrigerated van
Model years
Long
Short
Long
Short
Mandatory Standards
2021 to 2023 ....................................................................................................
2024 to 2026 ....................................................................................................
2027 and later ..................................................................................................
(C) For purposes of certifying vehicles
to fuel consumption standards,
manufacturers must divide their
product lines into vehicles families that
have similar emissions and fuel
consumption features, as specified by
EPA in 40 CFR part 1037.230, and these
families will be subject to the applicable
standards. Each vehicle family is
limited to a single model year.
(2) Subfamily standards.
Manufacturers may specify a Family
Emission Limit (FEL) in terms of fuel
consumption for each vehicle
subfamily. The FEL may not be less than
the result of fuel consumption modeling
from 40 CFR 1037.520. The FEL is the
fuel consumption standard for the
vehicle subfamily instead of the
standard specified in paragraph (e)(1)(ii)
and (iii) of this section and can be used
for calculating fuel consumption credits
in accordance with § 535.7.
Manufacturers may not use averaging
for non-box trailers, partial-aero trailers,
or non-aero trailers that meet standards
under paragraph (e)(1) of this section,
and may not use fuel consumption
credits for banking or trading for any
trailers.
(3) Useful life. The fuel consumption
standards of this section apply for a
useful life equal to 10 years.
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§ 535.6 Measurement and calculation
procedures.
Determine all vehicle parameters used
for testing in accordance with EPA’s
provisions in 40 CFR 1037.140.
Manufacturers conducting testing for
certification or annual demonstration
testing and providing CO2 emissions
data to EPA must also provide
equivalent fuel consumption results for
all values. NHTSA and EPA reserve the
right to verify separately or in
coordination the results of any testing
and measurement established by
manufacturers in complying with the
provisions of this program and as
specified in 40 CFR 1037.301 and
§ 535.9. Any carry over data from the
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7.9568
7.7603
7.5639
Phase 1 program may be carried into the
Phase 2 only with approval from EPA
and by using good engineering judgment
considering differences in test protocols
for testing procedure.
(a) Heavy-duty pickup trucks and
vans. This section describes the testing
a manufacturer must perform for each
model year and the method for
determining the fleet fuel consumption
performance to show compliance with
the fleet average fuel consumption
standard for heavy-duty pickup trucks
and vans in § 535.5(a).
(1) For each model year, the heavyduty pickup trucks and vans selected by
a manufacturer to comply with fuel
consumption standards in § 535.5(a)
must be used to determine the
manufacturer’s fleet average fuel
consumption performance. If the
manufacturer’s fleet includes
conventional and advanced technology
heavy-duty pickup trucks and vans, the
fleet should be sub-divided into two
separate vehicle fleets, with all of the
conventional vehicles in one fleet and
all of the advanced technology vehicles
in the other fleet.
(2) Vehicles in each fleet should be
divided into test groups or
subconfigurations according to EPA in
40 CFR part 86, subpart S.
(3) Test and measure the CO2
emissions test results for the selected
vehicles and determine the CO2
emissions test group result, in grams per
mile in accordance with 40 CFR part 86,
subpart S.
(i) Perform exhaust testing on vehicles
fueled by conventional and alternative
fuels, including dedicated and dualfueled (multi-fuel and flexible-fuel)
vehicles and measure the CO2 emissions
test result.
(ii) Adjust the CO2 emissions test
result of dual-fueled vehicles using a
weighted average of your emission
results as specified in 40 CFR 600.510–
12(k) for light-duty trucks.
(iii) All electric vehicles are deemed
to have zero emissions of CO2, CH4, and
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13.8507
13.7525
8.0550
7.9568
7.8585
14.3418
14.1454
14.1454
N2O. No emission testing is required for
such electric vehicles. Assign the fuel
consumption test group result to a value
of zero gallons per 100 miles in
paragraph (a)(4) of this section.
(iv) Test cab-complete and incomplete
vehicles using the applicable complete
sister vehicles as determined in 40 CFR
part 86.
(v) Test loose engines using
applicable complete vehicles as
determined in 40 CFR part 86.
(vi) Manufacturers can choose to
analytically derive CO2 emission rates
(ADCs) for test groups or
subconfigurations. Calculate the ADCs
for test groups or subconfigurations in
accordance with 40 CFR 86.1819–14 (g).
(4) Calculate equivalent fuel
consumption test group results, in
gallons per 100 miles, from CO2
emissions test group results, in grams
per miles, and round to the nearest
0.001 gallon per 100 miles.
(i) Calculate the equivalent fuel
consumption test group results as
follows for compression-ignition
vehicles and alternative fuel
compression-ignition vehicles. CO2
emissions test group result (grams per
mile)/10,180 grams per gallon of diesel
fuel) × (102) = Fuel consumption test
group result (gallons per 100 mile).
(ii) Calculate the equivalent fuel
consumption test group results as
follows for spark-ignition vehicles and
alternative fuel spark-ignition vehicles.
CO2 emissions test group result (grams
per mile)/8,877 grams per gallon of
gasoline fuel) × (102) = Fuel
consumption test group result (gallons
per 100 mile).
(5) Calculate the fleet average fuel
consumption result, in gallons per 100
miles, from the equivalent fuel
consumption test group results and
round the fuel consumption result to the
nearest 0.001 gallon per 100 miles.
Calculate the fleet average fuel
consumption result using the following
equation.
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Where:
Fuel Consumption Test Group Resulti = fuel
consumption performance for each test
group as defined in 49 CFR 523.4.
Volumei = production volume of each test
group.
(6) Compare the fleet average fuel
consumption standard to the fleet
average fuel consumption performance.
The fleet average fuel consumption
performance must be less than or equal
to the fleet fuel consumption standard
to comply with standards in § 535.5(a).
(b) Heavy-duty vocational vehicles
and tractors. This section describes the
testing a manufacturer must perform
and the method for determining fuel
consumption performance to show
compliance with the fuel consumption
standards for vocational vehicles and
tractors in § 535.5(b) and (c).
(1) Select vehicles and vehicle family
configurations to test as specified in 40
CFR 1037.230 for vehicles that make up
each of the manufacturer’s regulatory
subcategories of vocational vehicles and
tractors.
(2) Determine the CO2 emissions and
fuel consumption results for all
vehicles(conventional, alternative
fueled and advanced technology
vehicles) using the Greenhouse
Emissions Model (GEM) in accordance
with 40 CFR part 1037, subpart F.
Vocational vehicles and tractors are
modeled using the following inputs in
the GEM model.
(3) For Phase 1, all of the following
GEM inputs apply for sleeper cab
tractors, and day cab tractors. Some do
not apply for vocational vehicles and
other tractor regulatory subcategories, as
follows:
(i) Manufacturers must identify
vehicles according to their regulatory
subcategory, as defined in § 535.4, for
use in GEM (such as ‘‘Class 8
Combination—Sleeper Cab—High
Roof’’).
(ii) Coefficient of aerodynamic drag in
accordance with 40 CFR 1037.520 and
1037.525. Do not use for vocational
vehicles.
(iii) Steer tire rolling resistance for
low rolling resistance tires in
accordance with 40 CFR 1037.520 and
1037.650.
(iv) Drive tire rolling resistance for
low rolling resistance tires in
accordance with 40 CFR 1037.520 and
1037.650.
(v) Vehicle speed limit as governed by
vehicles speed limiters in accordance
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with 40 CFR 1037.520 and 1037.640. Do
not use for vocational vehicles.
(vi) Vehicle weight reduction as
provided in accordance with 40 CFR
1037.520. Do not use for vocational
vehicles.
(vii) Extended idle reduction credit
using automatic engine shutdown
systems in accordance with 40 CFR
1037.520 and 1037.660. Do not use for
vehicles other than Class 8 sleeper cabs.
(4) For Phase 1, engine performance
and the advanced technologies
equipped on vocational vehicles and
tractors are tested separately as follows:
(i) Test results for engines installed in
vocational vehicles and tractors, for
both conventional and alternative fueled
vehicles, are determined in accordance
with paragraph (c) of this section.
(ii) Improvements for advanced
technologies are determined as follows:
(A) Test hybrid vehicles with power
take-off in accordance with 40 CFR
1037.540.
(B) Vehicles with post-transmission
hybrid systems are determined in
accordance with 40 CFR 1037.550.
(5) For Phase 2, manufacturers are
allowed to add additional specifications
to improve fuel consumption
performance in GEM as specified in 40
CFR 1037.520. Additional GEM inputs
apply for Phase 2 tractors and
vocational vehicles as follows:
(i) Transmission make, model, type,
and the gear ratio for every available
forward gears.
(ii) Engine make, model, fuel type,
engine family name, calibration
identification. Also identify whether the
engine is subject to spark-ignition or
compression-ignition standards under
40 CFR part 1036.
(iii) Drive axle ratio. If a vehicle is
designed with two or more userselectable axle ratios, use the axle ratio
that is expected to be engaged for the
greatest driving distance.
(iv) Various engine and vehicle
operational characteristics, as described
in 40 CFR 1037.520(f).
(v) Engine fuel maps, which include
an idle fuel map for vocational vehicles.
(vi) Engine full-load torque curve and
motoring torque curve.
(vii) Loaded tire radius, based upon
nominal design specifications,
expressed to the nearest 0.01m as
described in 40 CFR 1037.140.
(viii) Hybrid power take-off (for
vocational vehicles only).
(6) Manufacturers may certify their
vehicles based on powertrain testing as
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described in 40 CFR 1037.550, rather
than fuel maps, to characterize fuel
consumption rates at different speed
and torque values.
(7) Emergency vehicles complying
with alternative standards specified in
§ 535.5(b) and 40 CFR 1037.105(b)(4),
run GEM by identifying the vehicle as
an emergency vehicle and enter values
for tire rolling resistance only.
(8) You may use a default fuel map for
specialty vehicles using engines
certified to alternate standards under 40
CFR 1037.605.
(9) Manufacturers of vehicles that run
on fuel other than gasoline or diesel,
should use good engineering judgment
to adjust modeling output values to
account for the physical properties of
the fuel.
(10) From the GEM results, select the
CO2 family emissions level (FEL) and
equivalent fuel consumption values for
vocational vehicle and tractor families
in each regulatory subcategory for each
model year. Equivalent fuel
consumption FELs are derived in GEM
and expressed to the nearest 0.0001
gallons per 1000 ton-mile. For families
containing multiple subfamilies,
identify the FELs for each subfamily.
(11) All electric vehicles are deemed
to have zero CO2 emissions and fuel
consumption. No emission testing is
required for such electric vehicles.
Assign the vehicle family with a fuel
consumption FEL result to a value of
zero gallons per 1000-ton miles.
(c) [Reserved]
(d) Heavy-duty engines. This section
describes the testing a manufacturer
must perform and the method for
determining fuel consumption
performance to show compliance with
the fuel consumption standards for
engines in § 535.5(d). Each engine must
be tested to the primary intended
service class that it is designed for in
accordance with 40 CFR 1036.108. For
engines using aftertreatment technology
with infrequent regeneration events test
in accordance with 40 CFR 86.004–28,
(1) Manufacturers must select
emission-data engines and engine
family configurations to test as specified
in 40 CFR part 86 for engines in heavyduty pickup trucks and vans and 40
CFR 1036.235 for engines installed in
truck tractors and vocational vehicles
that make up each of the manufacture’s
regulatory subcategories.
(2) Test the CO2 emissions for each
emissions-data engine subject to the
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standards in § 535.5(d) using the
procedures and equipment specified in
40 CFR part 1036, subpart F. Measure
the CO2 emissions in grams per hp-hr as
specified in 40 CFR 1036.501. For
medium and heavy heavy-duty engines
certified as tractor engines, measure CO2
emissions using the steady-state duty
cycle specified in 40 CFR 86.1362. For
medium and heavy heavy-duty engines
certified as both tractor and vocational
engines, measure CO2 emissions using
the steady-state duty cycle and the
transient duty cycle (sometimes referred
to as the FTP engine cycle), both of
which are specified in 40 CFR part 86,
subpart N.
(i) Perform exhaust testing on each
fuel type for conventional, dedicated,
dual-fueled (multi-fuel, and flexiblefuel) vehicles and measure the CO2
emissions level as specified in 40 CFR
part 1036.
(ii) Adjust the CO2 emissions result of
dual-fueled vehicles using a weighted
average of the demonstrated emission
results as specified in 40 CFR 1036.225.
If EPA disapproves a manufacturer’s
dual-fueled vehicle demonstrated use
submission, NHTSA will require the
manufacturer to only use the test results
with 100 percent conventional fuel to
determine the fuel consumption of the
engine.
(iii) All electric vehicles are deemed
to have zero emissions of CO2 and zero
fuel consumption. No emission or fuel
consumption testing is required for such
electric vehicles.
(3) Determine the CO2 emissions for
the family certification level (FCL) from
the emissions test results in paragraph
(c)(2) of this section for engine families
within the heavy-duty engine regulatory
subcategories for each model year.
(i) If a manufacturer certifies an
engine family for use both as a
vocational engine and as a tractor
engine, the manufacturer must split the
family into two separate subfamilies in
accordance with 40 CFR 1036.230. The
manufacturer may assign the numbers
and configurations of engines within the
respective subfamilies at any time prior
to the submission of the end-of-year
report required by 40 CFR 1036.730 and
§ 535.8. The manufacturer must track
into which type of vehicle each engine
is installed, although EPA may allow
the manufacturer to use statistical
methods to determine this for a fraction
of its engines.
(ii) The following engines are
excluded from the engine families used
to determined FCL values and the
benefit for these engines is determined
as an advanced technology credit under
the ABT provisions provided in
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§ 535.7(e); these provisions apply only
for the Phase 1 program:
(A) Engines certified as hybrid
engines or power packs.
(B) Engines certified as hybrid engines
designed with PTO capability and that
are sold with the engine coupled to a
transmission.
(C) Engines with Rankine cycle waste
heat recovery.
(4) Calculate equivalent fuel
consumption values for emissions FCLs
and the CO2 levels for certified engines,
in gallons per 100 hp-hr and round each
fuel consumption value to the nearest
0.0001 gallon per 100 hp-hr.
(i) Calculate equivalent fuel
consumption FCL values for
compression-ignition engines and
alternative fuel compression-ignition
engines. CO2 FCL value (grams per hphr)/10,180 grams per gallon of diesel
fuel) x (102) = Fuel consumption FCL
value (gallons per 100 hp-hr).
(ii) Calculate equivalent fuel
consumption FCL values for sparkignition engines and alternative fuel
spark-ignition engines. CO2 FCL value
(grams per hp-hr)/8,877 grams per
gallon of gasoline fuel) x (102) = Fuel
consumption FCL value (gallons per 100
hp-hr).
(iii) Manufacturers may carryover fuel
consumption data from a previous
model year if allowed to carry over
emissions data for EPA in accordance
with 40 CFR 1036.235.
(iv) If a manufacturer uses an alternate
test procedure under 40 CFR 1065.10
and subsequently the data is rejected by
EPA, NHTSA will also reject the data.
(e) Heavy-duty trailers. This section
describes the testing a manufacturer
must perform and the method for
determining fuel consumption
performance to show compliance with
the fuel consumption standards for
trailers in § 535.5(e).
(1) Select trailer family configurations
to test as specified in 40 CFR 1037.235
for trailers that make up each of the
manufacture’s regulatory subcategories
of heavy-duty trailers.
(2) Obtain preliminary approvals for
trailers aerodynamic devices from EPA
in accordance with 40 CFR 1037.150.
(3) For manufacturers voluntarily
complying in model years 2018 through
2020, and for trailers complying with
mandatory standards in model years
2021 and later, determine the CO2
emissions and fuel consumption results
for partial- and full-aero trailers using
the equations and technologies specified
in CFR part 1037, subpart F. Use testing
to determine input values in accordance
with 40 CFR 1037.515.
(4) Non-box trailers and non-aero
trailers certified using design-based
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certification must meet tire rolling
resistance levels, and use tire inflation
systems on all load-bearing wheels as
prescribed in 40 CFR 1037.150.
(5) Box trailer manufacturers shall use
a GEM-based equation to calculate CO2
emissions, as specified in 40 CFR
1037.515. From the equation results,
calculate the CO2 family emissions level
(FEL) and equivalent fuel consumption
values for trailer families in the long dry
van, short dry van, long refrigerated van,
and short refrigerated van regulatory
subcategories for each model year.
Equivalent fuel consumption FELs are
expressed to the nearest 0.0001 gallons
per 1000 ton-mile. For families
containing multiple subfamilies,
identify the FELs for each subfamily.
§ 535.7 Averaging, banking, and trading
(ABT) credit program.
(a) General provisions. After the end
of each model year, manufacturers must
comply with the fuel consumption
standards in § 535.5 by averaging,
banking and trading credits. Trailer
manufacturers are excluded from this
section except for those producing fullaero box trailers, which may comply
with special provisions in paragraph (e)
of this section. Manufacturers comply
with standards if the sum of averaged,
banked and traded credits generate a
‘‘zero’’ credit balance or a credit surplus
within an averaging set of vehicles or
engines. Manufacturers fail to comply
with standards if the sum of the credit
flexibilities generate a credit deficit (or
shortfall) in an averaging set. Credit
shortfalls must be offset by banked or
traded credits within three model years
after the shortfall is incurred. These
processes are hereafter referenced as the
NHTSA ABT credit program. The
following provisions apply to all fuel
consumption credits.
(1) Credits (or fuel consumption
credits (FCCs)). Credits in this part mean
a calculated weighted value
representing the difference between the
fuel consumption performance and the
standard of a vehicle or engine family or
fleet within a particular averaging set.
Positive credits represent cases where a
vehicle or engine family or fleet perform
better than the applicable standard (the
fuel consumption performance is less
than the standard) whereas negative
credits represent underperforming
cases. The value of a credit is calculated
according to sections (b) through (e) of
this section. FCCs are only considered
earned or useable for averaging, banking
or trading after EPA and NHTSA have
verified the information in a
manufacturer’s final reports required in
§ 535.8. Types of FCCs include the
following:
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(i) Conventional credits. Credits
generated by vehicle or engine families
or fleets containing conventional
vehicles (i.e., gasoline, diesel and
alternative fueled vehicles).
(ii) Early credits. Credits generated by
vehicle or engine families or fleets
produced for model year 2013. Early
credits are multiplied by an incentive
factor of 1.5 times.
(iii) Advanced technology credits.
Credits generated by vehicle or engine
families or subconfigurations containing
vehicles with advanced technologies
(i.e., hybrids with regenerative braking,
vehicles equipped with Rankine-cycle
engines, electric and fuel cell vehicles)
and incentivized under this ABT credit
program in paragraph (f)(1) of this
section and by EPA under 40 CFR
86.1819–14(d)(7), 1036.615, and
1037.615.
(iv) Innovative and off-cycle
technology credits. Credits generated by
vehicle or engine families or
subconfigurations having fuel
consumption reductions resulting from
technologies not reflected in the GEM
simulation tool or in the FTP chassis
dynomometer. These innovative and offcycle technology are incentivized under
this fuel consumption program in
paragraph (f)(2) of this section and by
EPA under 40 CFR 86.1819–14(d)(13),
1036.610, and 1037.610.
(2) Averaging. Averaging is the
summing of a manufacturer’s positive
and negative FCCs for engines or vehicle
families or fleets within an averaging
set. The principle averaging sets are
defined in § 535.4.
(i) A credit surplus occurs when the
net sum of the manufacturer’s generated
credits for engines or vehicle families or
fleets within an averaging set is positive
(a zero credit balance is when the sum
equals zero).
(ii) A credit deficit occurs when the
net sum of the manufacturer’s generated
credits for engines or vehicle families or
fleets within an averaging set is
negative.
(iii) Positive credits, other than
advanced technology credits, generated
and calculated within an averaging set
may only be used to offset negative
credits within the same averaging set.
(iv) Manufacturers may certify one or
more vehicle families (or subfamilies) to
an FEL above the applicable fuel
consumption standard, subject to any
applicable FEL caps and other
provisions allowed by EPA in 40 CFR
parts 1036 and 1037, if the manufacturer
shows in its application for certification
to EPA that its projected balance of all
FCC transactions in that model year is
greater than or equal to zero or that a
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negative balance is allowed by EPA
under 40 CFR 1036.745 and 1037.745.
(v) If a manufacturer certifies a
vehicle family to an FEL that exceeds
the otherwise applicable standard, it
must obtain enough FCC to offset the
vehicle family’s deficit by the due date
of its final report required in § 535.8.
The emission credits used to address the
deficit may come from other vehicle
families that generate FCCs in the same
model year (or from the next three
subsequent model years), from banked
FCCs from previous model years, or
from FCCs generated in the same or
previous model years that it obtained
through trading. Note that the option for
using banked or traded credits does not
apply for trailers.
(vi) Manufacturers may certify a
vehicle or engine family using an FEL
(as described in § 535.6) below the fuel
consumption standard (as described in
§ 535.5) and choose not to generate
conventional fuel consumption credits
for that family. Manufacturers do not
need to calculate fuel consumption
credits for those families and do not
need to submit or keep the associated
records described in § 535.8 for these
families. Manufacturers participating in
NHTSA’s FCC program must provide
reports as specified in § 535.8.
(3) Banking. Banking is the retention
of surplus FCC in an averaging set by
the manufacturer for use in future
model years for the purpose of averaging
or trading.
(i) Surplus credits may be banked by
the manufacturer for use in future
model years, or traded, given the
restriction that the credits have an
expiration date of five model years after
the year in which the credits are
generated. For example, banked credits
earned in model year 2014 may be
utilized through model year 2019.
Surplus credits will become banked
credits unless a manufacturer contacts
NHTSA to expire its credits.
(ii) Surplus credits become earned or
usable banked FCCs when the
manufacturer’s final report is approved
by both agencies. However, the agencies
may revoke these FCCs at any time if
they are unable to verify them after
reviewing the manufacturer’s reports or
auditing its records.
(iii) Banked FCC retain the
designation from the averaging set and
model year in which they were
generated.
(iv) Banked credits retain the
designation of the averaging set in
which they were generated.
(v) Trailer manufacturers generating
credits in paragraph (e) of this section
may not bank credits except to resolve
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40753
credit deficits in the same model year or
from up to three prior model years.
(4) Trading. Trading is a transaction
that transfers banked FCCs between
manufacturers or other entities in the
same averaging set. A manufacturer may
use traded FCCs for averaging, banking,
or further trading transactions.
(i) Manufacturers may only trade
banked credits to other manufacturers
with vehicle or engines in the same
averaging set. Traded FCCs, other than
advanced technology credits, may be
used only within the averaging set in
which they were generated.
Manufacturers may only trade credits to
other entities for the purpose of expiring
credits.
(ii) Advanced technology credits can
be traded across different averaging sets.
(iii) The agencies may revoke traded
FCCs at any time if they are unable to
verify them after reviewing the
manufacturer’s reports or auditing its
records.
(iv) If a negative FCC balance results
from a transaction, both the buyer and
seller are liable, except in cases the
agencies deem to involve fraud. See
§ 535.9 for cases involving fraud. EPA
also may void the certificates of all
vehicle families participating in a trade
that results in a manufacturer having a
negative balance of emission credits.
See 40 CFR 1037.745.
(v) Trailer manufacturers generating
credits in paragraph (e) of this section
may not trade credits.
(5) Credit deficit (or credit shortfall).
A credit shortfall or deficit occurs when
the sum of the manufacturer’s generated
credits for engines or vehicle families or
fleets within an averaging set is
negative. Credit shortfalls must be offset
by an available credit surplus within
three model years after the shortfall was
incurred. If the shortfall cannot be
offset, the manufacturer is liable for
civil penalties as discussed in § 535.9.
(6) FCC transaction plan. In order to
provide the maximum flexibility to a
manufacturer, during the model year
and before the due date for its final
report, an FCC transaction plan must be
submitted to the agencies as specified in
§ 535.8 anytime a manufacturer wants to
executes a credit transaction involving
banked or tradeding credits. For
example, if a manufacturer executes a
plan to apply banked credits over
multiple subsequent model years.
(7) Revoked credits. NHTSA may
revoke fuel consumption credits if
unable to verify any information after
auditing reports or records or
conducting conformitory testing. In the
cases where EPA revokes emissions CO2
credits, NHTSA will revoke the same
amount of fuel consumption credits.
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(b) ABT provisions for heavy-duty
pickup trucks and vans. (1) Calculate
fuel consumption credits in a model
year for one fleet of conventional heavyduty pickup trucks and vans and if
designated by the manufacturer another
consisting of advance technology
vehicles for the averaging set as defined
in § 535.4. Calculate credits for each
fleet separately using the following
equation:
Total MY Fleet FCC (gallons) = (Std –
Act) x (Volume) x (UL) x (102)
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Std = Fleet average fuel consumption
standard (gal/100 mile).
Act = Fleet average actual fuel consumption
value (gal/100 mile).
Volume = the total U.S.-directed production
of vehicles in the regulatory subcategory.
UL = the useful life for the regulatory
subcategory. The useful life value for
heavy-pickup trucks and vans
manufactured for model years 2013
through 2020 is equal to the 120,000
miles. The useful life for model years
2021 and later is equal to 150,000 miles.
(2) Adjust the fuel consumption
performance of subconfigurations with
advanced technology for determining
the fleet average actual fuel
consumption value as specified in
paragraph (f)(1) of this section and 40
CFR 86.1819–14(d)(7). Advanced
technology vehicles can be separated in
a different fleet for the purpose of
applying credit incentives as described
in paragraph (f)(1) of this section.
(3) Adjust the fuel consumption
performance for subconfigurations with
innovative technology. A manufacturer
is eligible to increase the fuel
consumption performance of heavyduty pickup trucks and vans in
accordance with procedures established
by EPA set forth in 40 CFR part 600. The
eligibility of a manufacturer to increase
its fuel consumption performance
through use of an off-cycle technology
requires an application request made to
EPA and NHTSA in accordance with 40
CFR 86.1869–12 and an approval
granted by the agencies. For off-cycle
technologies that are covered under 40
CFR 86.1869–12, NHTSA will
collaborate with EPA regarding
NHTSA’s evaluation of the specific offcycle technology to ensure its impact on
fuel consumption and the suitability of
using the off-cycle technology to adjust
fuel consumption performance. NHTSA
will provide its views on the suitability
of the technology for that purpose to
EPA. NHTSA will apply the criteria in
section (f) of this section in granting or
denying off-cycle requests.
(4) Fuel consumption credits may be
generated for vehicles certified in model
year 2013 to the model year 2014
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standards in § 535.5(a). If a
manufacturer chooses to generate CO2
emission credits under EPA’s provisions
in 40 CFR part 86, it may also
voluntarily generate early credits under
the NHTSA fuel consumption program.
To do so, a manufacturer must certify its
entire U.S.-directed production volume
of vehicles in its fleet. The same
production volume restrictions
specified in 40 CFR 1037.150(a)(2)
relating to when test groups are certified
apply to the NHTSA early credit
provisions. Credits are calculated as
specified in paragraph (b)(3) of this
section relative to the fleet standard that
would apply for model year 2014 using
the model year 2013 production
volumes. Surplus credits generated
under this paragraph (b)(4) are available
for banking or trading. Credit deficits for
an averaging set prior to model year
2014 do not carry over to model year
2014. These credits may be used to
show compliance with the standards of
this part for 2014 and later model years.
Once a manufacturer opts into the
NHTSA program they must stay in the
program for all of the optional model
years and remain standardized with the
same implementation approach being
followed to meet the EPA CO2 emission
program.
(5) Calculate the averaging set credit
value by summing together the fleet
credits for conventional and advanced
technology vehicles including any
adjustments for innovative technologies.
Manufacturers may sum conventional
and innovative technology credits
before adding any advanced technology
credits in each averaging set.
(6) Credit adjustment for useful life.
For credits that manufacturers calculate
based on a useful life of 120,000 miles,
multiply any banked credits carried
forward for use in model year 2021 and
later by 1.25. For credit deficits that you
calculate based on a useful life of
120,000 miles and that you offset with
credits originally earned in model year
2021 and later, multiply the credit
deficit by 1.25.
(c) ABT provisions for vocational
vehicles and tractors. (1) Calculate the
fuel consumption credits in a model
year for each participating family or
subfamily consisting of conventional
vehicles in each averaging set (as
defined in § 535.4) using the equation in
this section. Each designated vehicle
family or subfamily has a ‘‘family
emissions limit’’ (FEL) that is compared
to the associated regulatory subcategory
standard. An FEL that falls below the
regulatory subcategory standard creates
‘‘positive credits,’’ while fuel
consumption level of a family group
above the standard creates a ‘‘negative
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credits.’’ The value of credits generated
for each family or subfamily in a model
year is calculated as follows:
Vehicle Family FCC (gallons) = (Std –
FEL) x (Payload) x (Volume) x (UL)
x (103)
Where:
Std = the standard for the respective vehicle
family regulatory subcategory (gal/1000
ton-mile).
FEL = family emissions limit for the vehicle
family (gal/1000 ton-mile).
Payload = the prescribed payload in tons for
each regulatory subcategory as shown in
the following table:
Regulatory subcategory
LHD Vocational Vehicles ..........
MHD Vocational Vehicles .........
HHD Vocational Vehicles .........
Class 7 Tractor .........................
Class 8 Tractor .........................
Payload
(tons)
2.85
5.60
7.5
12.50
19.00
Volume = the number of U.S.-directed
production volume of vehicles in
the corresponding vehicle family.
UL = the useful life for the regulatory
subcategory (miles) as shown in the
following table:
Regulatory subcategory
LHD Vocational Vehicles ..........
MHD Vocational Vehicles .........
HHD Vocational Vehicles .........
Class 7 Tractor .........................
Class 8 Tractor .........................
UL
(miles)
110,000
(Phase 1),
150,000
(Phase 2).
185,000.
435,000.
185,000.
435,000.
(i) Calculate the value of credits
generated in a model year for each
family or subfamily consisting of
vehicles with advanced technology
vehicles in each averaging set using the
equation above and the guidelines
provided in paragraph (f)(1) of this
section. Manufacturers may generate
credits for advanced technology
vehicles using incentives specified in
paragraph (f)(1) of this section.
(ii) Calculate the value of credits
generated in a model year for each
family or subfamily consisting of
vehicles with off-cycle technology
vehicles in each averaging set using the
equation above and the guidelines
provided in paragraph (f)(2) of this
section.
(2) Manufacturers must sum all
negative and positive credits for each
vehicle family within each applicable
averaging set to obtain the total credit
balance for the model year before
rounding. The sum of fuel
consumptions credits must be rounded
to the nearest gallon. Calculate the total
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credits generated in a model year for
each averaging set using the following
equation:
Total averaging set MY credits = S
Vehicle family credits within each
averaging set
(3) Manufacturers can sum
conventional and innovative technology
credits before adding any advanced
technology credits in each averaging set.
(4) If a manufacturer chooses to
generate CO2 emission credits under
EPA provisions of 40 CFR 1037.150(a),
it may also voluntarily generate early
credits under the NHTSA fuel
consumption program as follows:
(i) Fuel consumption credits may be
generated for vehicles certified in model
year 2013 to the model year 2014
standards in § 535.5(b) and (c). To do so,
a manufacturer must certify its entire
U.S.-directed production volume of
vehicles. The same production volume
restrictions specified in 40 CFR
1037.150(a)(1) relating to when test
groups are certified apply to the NHTSA
early credit provisions. Credits are
calculated as specified in paragraph
(c)(11) of this section relative to the
standards that would apply for model
year 2014. Surplus credits generated
under this paragraph (c)(4) may be
increased by a factor of 1.5 for
determining total available credits for
banking or trading. For example, if you
have 10 gallons of surplus credits for
model year 2013, you may bank 15
gallons of credits. Credit deficits for an
averaging set prior to model year 2014
do not carry over to model year 2014.
These credits may be used to show
compliance with the standards of this
part for 2014 and later model years.
Once a manufacturer opts into the
NHTSA program they must stay in the
program for all of the optional model
years and remain standardized with the
same implementation approach being
followed to meet the EPA CO2 emission
program.
(ii) A tractor manufacturer may
generate fuel consumption credits for
the number of additional SmartWay
designated tractors (relative to its MY
2012 production), provided that credits
are not generated for those vehicles
under paragraph (c)(4)(i) of this section.
Calculate credits for each regulatory
sub-category relative to the standard
that would apply in model year 2014
using the equations in paragraph (c)(2)
of this section. Use a production volume
equal to the number of verified model
year 2013 SmartWay tractors minus the
number of verified model year 2012
SmartWay tractors. A manufacturer may
bank credits equal to the surplus credits
generated under this paragraph
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multiplied by 1.50. A manufacturer’s
2012 and 2013 model years must be
equivalent in length. Once a
manufacturer opts into the NHTSA
program they must stay in the program
for all of the optional model years and
remain standardized with the same
implementation approach being
followed to meet the EPA CO2 emission
program.
(5) If a manufacturer generates credits
from vehicles certified for advanced
technology in accordance with
paragraph (e)(1) of this section, a
multiplier of 1.5 can be used, but this
multiplier cannot be used on the same
credits for which the early credit
multiplier is used.
(d) ABT provisions for heavy-duty
engines. (1) Calculate the fuel
consumption credits in a model year for
each participating family or subfamily
consisting of engines in each averaging
set (as defined in § 535.4) using the
equation in this section. Each
designated engine family has a ‘‘family
certification level’’ (FCL) which is
compared to the associated regulatory
subcategory standard. A FCL that falls
below the regulatory subcategory
standard creates ‘‘positive credits,’’
while fuel consumption level of a family
group above the standard creates a
‘‘credit shortfall.’’ The value of credits
generated in a model year for each
engine family or subfamily is calculated
as follows:
Engine Family FCC (gallons) =
(Std¥FCL) × (CF) × (Volume) × (UL)
× (102)
Where:
Std = the standard for the respective engine
regulatory subcategory (gal/100 hp-hr).
FCL = family certification level for the engine
family (gal/100 hp-hr).
CF= a transient cycle conversion factor in hphr/mile which is the integrated total
cycle horsepower-hour divided by the
equivalent mileage of the applicable test
cycle. For spark-ignition heavy-duty
engines, the equivalent mileage is 6.3
miles. For compression-ignition heavyduty engines, the equivalent mileage is
6.5 miles.
Volume = the number of engines in the
corresponding engine family.
UL = the useful life of the given engine
family (miles) as shown in the following
table:
UL
(miles)
Regulatory subcategory
Class 2b-5 Vocational Vehicles, Spark Ignited (SI),
and Light Heavy-Duty Diesel Engines.
Class 6–7 Vocational Vehicles and Medium HeavyDuty Diesel Engines.
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110,000
(Phase 1),
150,000
(Phase 2).
185,000.
Sfmt 4702
Regulatory subcategory
40755
UL
(miles)
Class 8 Vocational Vehicles
435,000.
and Heavy Heavy-Duty
Diesel Engines.
Class 7 Tractors and Medium 185,000.
Heavy-Duty Diesel Engines.
Class 8 Tractors and Heavy
435,000.
Heavy-Duty Diesel Engines.
(i) Calculate the value of credits
generated in a model year for each
family or subfamily consisting of
engines with advanced technology
vehicles in each averaging set using the
equation above and the guidelines
provided in paragraph (f)(1) of this
section. Manufacturers may generate
credits for advanced technology
vehicles using incentives specified in
paragraph (f)(1) of this section.
(ii) Calculate the value of credits
generated in a model year for each
family or subfamily consisting of
engines with off-cycle technology
vehicles in each averaging set using the
equation above and the guidelines
provided in paragraph (f)(2) of this
section.
(2) Manufacturers shall sum all
negative and positive credits for each
engine family within the applicable
averaging set to obtain the total credit
balance for the model year before
rounding. The sum of fuel
consumptions credits should be
rounded to the nearest gallon. Calculate
the total credits generated in a model
year for each averaging set using the
following equation:
Total averaging set MY credits = S
Engine family credits within each
averaging set
(3) The provisions of this section
apply to manufacturers utilizing the
compression-ignition engine voluntary
alternate standard provisions specified
in § 535.5(d)(4) as follows:
(i) Manufacturers may not certify
engines to the alternate standards if they
are part of an averaging set in which
they carry a balance of banked credits.
For purposes of this section,
manufacturers are deemed to carry
credits in an averaging set if they carry
credits from advance technology that are
allowed to be used in that averaging set.
(ii) Manufacturers may not bank fuel
consumption credits for any engine
family in the same averaging set and
model year in which it certifies engines
to the alternate standards. This means a
manufacturer may not bank advanced
technology credits in a model year it
certifies any engines to the alternate
standards.
(iii) Note that the provisions of
paragraph (a) of this section apply with
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respect to credit deficits generated while
utilizing alternate standards.
(4) Where a manufacturer has chosen
to comply with the EPA alternative
compression ignition engine phase-in
standard provisions in 40 CFR
1036.150(e), and has optionally decided
to follow the same path under the
NHTSA fuel consumption program, it
must certify all of its model year 2013
compression-ignition engines within a
given averaging set to the applicable
alternative standards in § 535.5(d)(5).
Engines certified to these standards are
not eligible for early credits under
paragraph (d)(5) of this section. Credits
are calculated using the same equation
provided in paragraph (d)(1) of this
section.
(5) If a manufacturer chooses to
generate early CO2 emission credits
under EPA provisions of 40 CFR
1036.150, it may also voluntarily
generate early credits under the NHTSA
fuel consumption program. Fuel
consumption credits may be generated
for engines certified in model year 2013
(2015 for spark-ignition engines) to the
standards in § 535.5(d). To do so, a
manufacturer must certify its entire
U.S.-directed production volume of
engines except as specified in 40 CFR
1036.150(a)(2). Credits are calculated as
specified in paragraph (d)(1) of this
section relative to the standards that
would apply for model year 2014 (2016
for spark-ignition engines). Surplus
credits generated under this paragraph
(d)(3) may be increased by a factor of 1.5
for determining total available credits
for banking or trading. For example, if
you have 10 gallons of surplus credits
for model year 2013, you may bank 15
gallons of credits. Credit deficits for an
averaging set prior to model year 2014
(2016 for spark-ignition engines) do not
carry over to model year 2014 (2016 for
spark-ignition engines). These credits
may be used to show compliance with
the standards of this part for 2014 and
later model years. Once a manufacturer
opts into the NHTSA program they must
stay in the program for all of the
optional model years and remain
standardized with the same
implementation approach being
followed to meet the EPA CO2 emission
program.
(e) ABT provisions for trailers. (1)
Manufacturers can not use averaging for
non-box trailers, partial-aero trailers, or
non-aero trailers and can not use fuel
consumption credits for banking or
trading for any trailers. Full aero box
trailer manufactures may average credits
but cannot bank credits except to
resolve deficits in future model years.
(2) Calculate the fuel consumption
credits in a model year for each
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participating family or subfamily
consisting of full aero box trailers
(vehicles) in each averaging set (as
defined in § 535.4) using the equation in
this section. Each designated vehicle
family or subfamily has a ‘‘family
emissions limit’’ (FEL) which is
compared to the associated regulatory
subcategory standard. An FEL that falls
below the regulatory subcategory
standard creates ‘‘positive credits,’’
while fuel consumption level of a family
group above the standard creates a
‘‘negative credits.’’ The value of credits
generated for each family or subfamily
in a model year is calculated as follows:
Vehicle Family FCC (gallons) =
(Std ¥ FEL) × (Payload) ×
(Volume) × (UL) × (103)
Where:
Std = the standard for the respective vehicle
family regulatory subcategory (gal/1000
ton-mile).
FEL = family emissions limit for the vehicle
family (gal/1000 ton-mile).
Payload = 19 tons.
Volume = the number of U.S.-directed
production volume of vehicles in the
corresponding vehicle family.
UL = the useful life for the regulatory
subcategory. The useful life value for
heavy-duty trailers is equal to the
250,000 miles.
(3) Trailer manufacturers may not
generate advanced or innovative
technology credits.
(4) Manufacturers shall sum all
negative and positive credits for each
vehicle family within the applicable
averaging set to obtain the total credit
balance for the model year before
rounding. The sum of fuel
consumptions credits should be
rounded to the nearest gallon.
Calculate the total credits generated in
a model year for each averaging set
using the following equation:
Total averaging set MY credits = S
Vehicle family credits within each
averaging set
(5) Trailer manufacturers may not
generate a credit surplus within an
averaging set for the purpose of banking
except to offset a credit deficit from a
prior model year.
(f) Additional credit provisions. (1)
Advanced technology credits.
Manufacturers of heavy-duty pickup
trucks and vans, vocational vehicles,
tractors and the associated engines
showing improvements in CO2
emissions and fuel consumption using
hybrid vehicles with regenerative
braking, vehicles equipped with
Rankine-cycle engines, electric vehicles
and fuel cell vehicles are eligible for
advanced technology credits.
Manufacturers shall use sound
engineering judgment to determine the
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performance of the vehicle or engine
with advanced techonology. Advanced
technology credits for vehicles or
engines complying with Phase 1
standards may be increased by a 1.5
multiplier for Phase 2. Manufacturers
may not apply this multiplier in
addition to any early-credit multipliers.
The maximum amount of credits a
manufacturer may bring into the service
class group that contains the heavy-duty
pickup and van averaging set is 5.89·106
gallons (for advanced technology credits
based upon compression ignition
engines) or 6.76·106 gallons (for
advanced technology credits based upon
spark-ignition engines) per model year
as specified in 40 CFR part 86 for heavyduty pickup trucks and vans, 40 CFR
1036.740 for engines and 40 CFR
1037.740 for tractors and vocational
vehicles. The specified limit does not
cap the amount of advanced technology
credits that can be used across averaging
sets within the same service class group.
Advanced technology credits can be
used to offset negative credits in the
same averaging set or other averaging
sets. A manufacturer must first apply
advanced technology credits to any
deficits in the same averaging set before
applying them to other averaging.
(i) Heavy-duty pickup trucks and
vans. For advanced technology systems
(hybrid vehicles with regenerative
braking, vehicles equipped with
Rankine-cycle engines and fuel cell
vehicles), calculate fleet-average
performance rates consistent with good
engineering judgment and the
provisions of 40 CFR 86.1819–14 and 40
CFR 86.1865.
(ii) Tractors and vocational vehicles.
For advanced technology system (hybrid
vehicles with regenerative braking,
vehicles equipped with Rankine-cycle
engines and fuel cell vehicles), calculate
the advanced technology credits as
follows:
(A) Measure the effectiveness of the
advanced system by conducting A to B
testing a vehicle equipped with the
advanced system and an equivalent
conventional system in accordance with
40 CFR 1037.615.
(B) For purposes of this paragraph (e),
a conventional vehicle is considered to
be equivalent if it has the same
footprint, intended vehicle service class,
aerodynamic drag, and other relevant
factors not directly related to the
advanced system powertrain. If there is
no equivalent vehicle, the manufacturer
may create and test a prototype
equivalent vehicle. The conventional
vehicle is considered Vehicle A, and the
advanced technology vehicle is
considered Vehicle B.
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(C) The benefit associated with the
advanced system for fuel consumption
is determined from the weighted fuel
consumption results from the chassis
tests of each vehicle using the following
equation:
Benefit (gallon/1000 ton mile) =
Improvement Factor × GEM Fuel
Consumption Result_B
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Where:
Improvement Factor = (Fuel Consumption_A
¥ Fuel Consumption_B)/(Fuel
Consumption_A)
Fuel Consumption Rates A and B are the
gallons per 1000 ton-mile of the
conventional and advanced vehicles,
respectively as measured under the test
procedures specified by EPA.
GEM Fuel Consumption Result B is the
estimated gallons per 1000 ton-mile rate
resulting from emission modeling of the
advanced vehicle as specified in 40 CFR
1037.520 and § 535.6(b).
(D) Calculate the benefit in credits
using the equation in paragraph (c) of
this section and replacing the term (StdFEL) with the benefit.
(E) For electric vehicles calculate the
fuel consumption credits using an FEL
of 0 g/1000ton-mile.
(iii) Heavy-duty engines. (A) This
section specifies how to generate
advanced technology-specific fuel
consumption credits for hybrid
powertrains that include energy storage
systems and regenerative braking
(including regenerative engine braking)
and for engines that include Rankinecycle (or other bottoming cycle) exhaust
energy recovery systems.
(1) Pre-transmission hybrid
powertrains are those engine systems
that include features that recover and
store energy during engine motoring
operation but not from the vehicle
wheels. These powertrains are tested
using the hybrid engine test procedures
of 40 CFR part 1065 or using the posttransmission test procedures.
(2) Post-transmission hybrid
powertrains are those powertrains that
include features that recover and store
energy from braking at the vehicle
wheels. These powertrains are tested by
simulating the chassis test procedure
applicable for hybrid vehicles under 40
CFR 1037.550.
(3) Test engines that include Rankinecycle exhaust energy recovery systems
according to the test procedures
specified in 40 CFR part 1036, subpart
F, unless EPA approves the
manufacturer’s alternate procedures.
(B) Calculate credits as specified in
paragraph (c) of this section. Credits
generated from engines and powertrains
certified under this section may be used
in other averaging sets as described in
40 CFR 1036.740(d).
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(2) Innovative and off-cycle
technology credits. This provision
allows fuel saving innovative and offcycle engine and vehicle technologies to
generate fuel consumption credits
comparable to CO2 emission credits
consistent with the provisions of 40 CFR
1036.610 (for engines), 40 CFR part 86
(for heavy-duty pickup trucks and vans)
and 40 CFR 1037.610 (for vocational
vehicles and tractors).
(i) For model years 2013 through
2020, manufacturers may generate
innovative technology credits for
introducing technologies that were not
in-common use for heavy-duty vehicles
or engines before model year 2010 and
that are not reflected in the EPA
specified test procedures. Upon
identification and joint approval with
EPA, NHTSA will allow equivalent fuel
consumption credits into its program to
those allowed by EPA for manufacturers
seeking to obtain innovative technology
credits in a given model year. Such
credits must remain within the same
regulatory subcategory in which the
credits were generated. NHTSA will
adopt fuel consumption credits
depending upon whether—
(A) The technology has a direct
impact upon reducing fuel consumption
performance; and
(B) The manufacturer has provided
sufficient information to make sound
engineering judgments on the impact of
the technology in reducing fuel
consumption performance.
(ii) For model years 2021 and later,
manufacturers may generate off-cycle
technology credits for introducing
technologies that are not reflected in the
EPA specified test procedures. Upon
identification and joint approval with
EPA, NHTSA will allow equivalent fuel
consumption credits into its program to
those allowed by EPA for manufacturers
seeking to obtain innovative technology
credits in a given model year. Such
credits must remain within the same
regulatory subcategory in which the
credits were generated. NHTSA will
adopt fuel consumption credits
depending upon whether—
(A) The technology meets paragraph
(f)(2)(i)(A) and (B) of this section.
(B) For heavy-duty pickup trucks and
vans, manufacturers using the 5-cycle
test to quantify the benefit of a
technology are not required to obtain
approval from the agencies to generate
results.
(iii) The following provisions apply to
all innovative and off-cycle
technologies:
(A) Technologies found to be
defective, or identified as a part of
NHTSA’s safety defects program, and
technologies that are not performing as
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intended will have the values of
approved off-cycle credits removed from
the manufacturer’s credit balance.
(B) Approval granted for innovative
and off-cycle technology credits under
NHTSA’s fuel efficiency program does
not affect or relieve the obligation to
comply with the Vehicle Safety Act (49
U.S.C. Chapter 301), including the
‘‘make inoperative’’ prohibition (49
U.S.C. 30122), and all applicable
Federal motor vehicle safety standards
issued thereunder (FMVSSs) (49 CFR
part 571). In order to generate off-cycle
or innovative technology credits
manufacturers must state—
(1) That each vehicle equipped with
the technology for which they are
seeking credits will comply with all
applicable FMVSS(s); and
(2) Whether or not the technology has
a fail-safe provision. If no fail-safe
provision exists, the manufacturer must
explain why not and whether a failure
of the innovative technology would
affect the safety of the vehicle.
(C) Manufacturers requesting approval
for innovative technology credits are
required to provide documentation in
accordance with 40 CFR 86.1869–12,
1036.610, and 1037.610.
(D) Credits will be accepted on a onefor-one basis expressed in terms of
gallons in comparison to those approved
by EPA.
(E) For the heavy-duty pickup trucks
and vans, the average fuel consumption
will be calculated as a separate credit
amount (rounded to the nearest whole
number) using the following equation:
Off-cycle FC credits = (CO2 Credit/CF) ×
100 ×
Production × VLM
Where:
CO2 Credits = the credit value in grams per
mile determined in 40 CFR 86.1869–
12(c)(3), (d)(1), (d)(2) or (d)(3).
CF = conversion factor, which for spark
ignition engines is 8,887 and for
compression ignition engines is 10,180.
Production = the total production volume for
the applicable category of vehicles
VLM = vehicle lifetime miles, which for 2b3 vehicles shall be 150,000 for the Phase
2 program.
(F) NHTSA will not approve
innovative technology credits for
technology that is related to crashavoidance technologies, safety critical
systems or systems affecting safetycritical functions, or technologies
designed for the purpose of reducing the
frequency of vehicle crashes.
(iv) Manufacturers may carryover an
approved innovative technology into the
Phase 2 off-cycle credit program.
Manufacturers may continue to
carryover the improvement factor (not
the credit value) if—
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(A) The FEL is generated by GEM or
5-cycle testing;
(B) The technology is not changed or
paired with any other off-cycle
technology;
(C) The improvement factor only
applies to approved vehicle or engine
families;
(D) The agencies do not expect the
technology to be incorporated into GEM
at any point during the Phase 2
program; and
(E) The documentation to carryover
credits that would primarily justify the
difference in fuel efficiency between
real world and compliance protocols is
the same for both Phase 1 and Phase 2
compliance protocols. The agencies
must approve the justification. If the
agencies do not approve the
justification, the manufacturer must
recertify.
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§ 535.8 Reporting and recordkeeping
requirements.
(a) General requirements.
Manufacturers producing heavy-duty
vehicles and engines applicable to fuel
consumption standards in § 535.5, for
each given model year, must submit the
required information as specified in
paragraphs (b) through (h) of this
section.
(1) The information required by this
part must be submitted by the deadlines
specified in this section and must be
based upon all the information and data
available to the manufacturer 30 days
before submitting information.
(2) Manufacturers must submit
information electronically through the
EPA database system as the single point
of entry for all information required for
this national program and both agencies
will have access to the information. The
format for the required information is
specified by EPA in coordination with
NHTSA.
(3) Manufacturers providing
incomplete reports missing any of the
required information or providing
untimely reports are considered as not
complying with standards (i.e., if goodfaith estimates of U.S.-directed
production volumes for EPA certificates
of conformity are not provided) and are
liable to pay civil penalties in
accordance with 49 U.S.C. 32912.
(4) Manufacturers certifying a vehicle
or engine family using an FEL or FCL
below the applicable fuel consumption
standard as described in § 535.5 may
choose not to generate fuel consumption
credits for that family. In which case,
the manufacturer is not required to
submit reporting or keep the associated
records described in this part for that
family.
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(5) Manufacturers must use good
engineering judgment and provide
comparable fuel consumption
information to that of the information or
data provided to EPA under 40 CFR
86.1865, 1036.250, 1036.730, 1036.825
1037.250, 1037.730, and 1037.825.
(6) Any information that must be sent
directly to NHTSA. In instances in
which EPA has not created an electronic
pathway to receive the information, the
information should be sent through an
electronic portal identified by NHTSA
or through the NHTSA CAFE database
(i.e., information on fuel consumption
credit transactions). If hardcopy
documents must be sent, the
information should be sent to the
Associate Administrator of Enforcement
at 1200 New Jersey Avenue, NVS–200,
Office W45–306, SW., Washington, DC
20590.
(b) Pre-model year reports.
Manufacturers producing heavy-duty
pickup trucks and vans must submit
reports in advance of the model year
providing early estimates demonstrating
how their fleet(s) would comply with
GHG emissions and fuel consumption
standards. Note, the agencies
understand that early model year
reports contain estimates that may
change over the course of a model year
and that compliance information
manufacturers submit prior to the
beginning of a new model year may not
represent the final compliance outcome.
The agencies view the necessity for
requiring early model reports as a
manufacturer’s good faith projection for
demonstrating compliance with
emission and fuel consumption
standards.
(1) Report deadlines. For model years
2013 and later, manufacturer of heavyduty pickup trucks and vans complying
with voluntary and mandatory
standards must submit a pre-model year
report for the given model year as early
as the date of the manufacturer’s annual
certification preview meeting with EPA
and NHTSA, or prior to submitting its
first application for a certificate of
conformity to EPA in accordance with
40 CFR 86.1819–14 (d). For example, a
manufacturer choosing to comply in
model year 2014 could submit its premodel year report during its
precertification meeting which could
occur before January 2, 2013, or could
provide its pre-model year report any
time prior to submitting its first
application for certification for the given
model year.
(2) Contents. Each pre-model year
report must be submitted including the
following information for each model
year.
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(i) A list of each unique
subconfiguration in the manufacturer’s
fleet describing the make and model
designations, attribute based-values (i.e.,
GVWR, GCWR, Curb Weight and drive
configurations) and standards;
(ii) The emission and fuel
consumption fleet average standard
derived from the unique vehicle
configurations;
(iii) The estimated vehicle
configuration, test group and fleet
production volumes;
(iv) The expected emissions and fuel
consumption test group results and fleet
average performance;
(v) If complying with MY 2013 fuel
consumption standards, a statement
must be provided declaring that the
manufacturer is voluntarily choosing to
comply early with the EPA and NHTSA
programs. The manufacturers must also
acknowledge that once selected, the
decision cannot be reversed and the
manufacturer will continue to comply
with the fuel consumption standards for
subsequent model years for all the
vehicles it manufacturers in each
regulatory category for a given model
year;
(vi) If complying with MYs 2014,
2015 or 2016 fuel consumption
standards, a statement must be provided
declaring whether the manufacturer will
use fixed or increasing standards in
accordance with § 535.5(a). The
manufacturer must also acknowledge
that once selected, the decision cannot
be reversed and the manufacturer must
continue to comply with the same
alternative for subsequent model years
for all the vehicles it manufacturers in
each regulatory category for a given
model year;
(vii) If complying with MYs 2014 or
2015 fuel consumption standards, a
statement must be provided declaring
that the manufacturer is voluntarily
choosing to comply with NHTSA’s
voluntary fuel consumption standards
in accordance with § 535.5(a)(4). The
manufacturers must also acknowledge
that once selected, the decision cannot
be reversed and the manufacturer will
continue to comply with the fuel
consumption standards for subsequent
model years for all the vehicles it
manufacturers in each regulatory
category for a given model year;
(viii) The list of Class 2b and 3
incomplete vehicles (cab-complete or
chassis complete vehicles) and the
method used to certify these vehicles as
complete pickups and vans identifying
the most similar complete sister- or
other complete vehicles used to derive
the target standards and performance
test results;
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(ix) The list of Class 4 and 5
incomplete and complete vehicles and
the method use to certify these vehicles
as complete pickups and vans
identifying the most similar complete or
sister vehicles used to derive the target
standards and performance test results;
(x) List of loose engines included in
the heavy-duty pickup and van category
and the list of vehicles used to derive
target standards and performance test
results;
(xi) Copy of any notices a vehicle
manufacturer sends to the engine
manufacturer to notify the engine
manufacturers that their engines are
subject to emissions and fuel
consumption standards and that it
intends to use their engines in excluded
vehicles;
(xii) A credit plan identifying the
manufacturers estimated credit
balances, planned credit flexibilities
(i.e., credit balances, planned credit
trading, innovative, advanced and early
credits and etc.) and if needed a credit
deficit plan demonstrating how it plans
to resolve any credit deficits that might
occur for a model year within a period
of up to three model years after that
deficit has occurred; and
(xiii) The supplemental information
specified in paragraph (h) of this
section. [Note: NHTSA may also ask a
manufacturer to provide additional
information if necessary to verify
compliance with the fuel consumption
requirements of this regulation.]
(c) Applications for certificate of
conformity. Manufacturers producing
vocational vehicles, tractors and heavyduty engines are required to submit
applications for certificates of
conformity to EPA in accordance with
40 CFR 1036.205 and 1037.205 in
advance of introducing vehicles for
commercial sale. Applications contain
early model year information
demonstrating how manufacturers plan
to comply with GHG emissions. For
model years 2013 and later,
manufacturers of vocational vehicles,
tractors and engine complying with
NHTSA’s voluntary and mandatory
standards must submit applications for
certificates of conformity in accordance
through the EPA database including
both GHG emissions and fuel
consumption information for each given
model year.
(1) Submission deadlines.
Applications are primarily submitted in
advance of the given model year to EPA
but cannot be submitted any later than
December 31 of the given model year.
(2) Contents. Each application for
certificates of conformity submitted to
EPA must include the following
equivalent fuel consumption.
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(i) Equivalent fuel consumption
values for emissions CO2 FCLs values
used to certify each engine family in
accordance with 40 CFR 1036.205(e).
This provision applies only to
manufacturers producing heavy-duty
engines.
(ii) Equivalent fuel consumption
values for emission CO2 data engines
used to comply with emission standards
in 40 CFR 1036.108. This provision
applies only to manufacturers
producing heavy-duty engines.
(iii) Equivalent fuel consumption
values for emissions CO2 FELs values
used to certify each vehicle families or
subfamilies in accordance with 40 CFR
1037.205(k). This provision applies only
to manufacturers producing vocational
vehicles and tractors.
(iv) Report modeling results for ten
configurations in terms of CO2
emissions and equivalent fuel
consumption results in accordance with
40 CFR 1037.205(o). Include modeling
inputs and detailed descriptions of how
they were derived. This provision
applies only to manufacturers
producing vocational vehicles and
tractors.
(3) Additional supplemental
information. Manufacturers are required
to submit additional information as
specified in paragraph (h) of this section
for the NHTSA program before or at the
same time it submits its first application
for a certificate of conformity to EPA.
Under limited conditions, NHTSA may
also ask a manufacturer to provide
additional information directly to the
Administrator if necessary to verify the
fuel consumption requirements of this
regulation.
(d) Final reports. Heavy-duty vehicle
and engine manufacturers participating
and not-participating in the ABT
program are required to submit an endof-the-year (EOY) report containing
information for NHTSA as specified in
paragraph (d)(2) of this section and in
accordance with 40 CFR 86.1865,
1036.730, and 1037.730. The final
reports are used to review a
manufacturer’s preliminary or final
compliance information and to identify
manufacturers that might have a credit
deficit for the given model year. For
model years 2013 and later, heavy-duty
vehicle and engine manufacturers
complying with NHTSA’s voluntary and
mandatory standards must submit final
reports through the EPA database
including both GHG emissions and fuel
consumption information for each given
model year.
(1) Report deadlines. For model year
2013 and later, heavy-duty vehicle and
engine manufacturers complying with
NHTSA voluntary and mandatory
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standards must submit EOY reports
through the EPA database including
both GHG emissions and fuel
consumption information within 90
days after the end of the given model
year and no later than April 1 of the
next calendar year. For example, the
final report for model year 2014 must be
submitted no later than April 1, 2015. A
manufacturer may ask NHTSA and EPA
to extend the deadline of a final report
by up to 30 days. A manufacturer
unable to provide, and requesting to
omit an emissions rate or fuel
consumption value from a final report
must obtain approval from the agencies
prior to the submission deadline of its
final report.
(i) If a manufacturer expects
differences in the information reported
between the EOY and the final year
report specified in 40 CFR 1036.730 and
1037.730, it must provide the most upto-date fuel consumption projections in
its final report and identify the
information as preliminary.
(ii) If the manufacturer cannot provide
any of the required fuel consumption
information, it must state the specific
reason for the insufficiency and identify
the additional testing needed or explain
what analytical methods are believed by
the manufacturer will be necessary to
eliminate the insufficiency and certify
that the results will be available for the
final report.
(2) Contents. Each final report must be
submitted including the following fuel
consumption information for each
model year. final reports for
manufacturers participating in the ABT
program must include final estimates.
(i) Engine and vehicle family
designations and averaging sets.
(ii) Engine and vehicle regulatory
subcategory and fuel consumption
standards including any alternative
standards used.
(iii) Engine and vehicle family FCLs
and FELs in terms of fuel consumption.
(iv) Final production volumes for
engines and vehicles.
(v) A final credit plan (for
manufacturers participating in the ABT
program) identifying the manufacturers
actual fuel consumption credit balances,
credit flexibilities, credit trades and a
credit deficit plan if needed
demonstrating how it plans to resolve
any credit deficits that might occur for
a model year within a period of up to
three model years after that deficit has
occurred.
(vi) A summary as specified in
paragraph (g)(7) of this section
describing the vocational vehicles and
vocational tractors that were exempted
as heavy-duty off-road vehicles. This
applies to manufacturers participating
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and not participating in the ABT
program.
(vii) A summary describing any
advanced or innovative technology
engines or vehicles including alternative
fueled vehicles that were produced for
the model year identifying the
approaches used to determinate
compliance and the production
volumes.
(viii) A list of each unique
subconfiguration included in a
manufacturer’s fleet of heavy-duty
pickup trucks and vans identifying the
attribute based-values (GVWR, GCWR,
Curb Weight, and drive configurations)
and standards. This provision applies
only to manufacturers producing heavyduty pickup trucks and vans.
(ix) The fuel consumption fleet
average standard derived from the
unique vehicle configurations. This
provision applies only to manufacturers
producing heavy-duty pickup trucks
and vans.
(x) The subconfiguration and test
group production volumes. This
provision applies only to manufacturers
producing heavy-duty pickup trucks
and vans.
(xi) The fuel consumption test group
results and fleet average performance.
This provision applies only to
manufacturers producing heavy-duty
pickup trucks and vans.
(xii) Under limited conditions,
NHTSA may also ask a manufacturer to
provide additional information directly
to the Administrator if necessary to
verify the fuel consumption
requirements of this regulation.
(e) Amendments to applications for
certification. At any time, a
manufacturer modifies an application
for certification in accordance with 40
CFR 1036.225 and 1037.225, it must
submit GHG emissions changes with
equivalent fuel consumption values for
the information required in paragraphs
(b) through (e) and (h) of this section.
(f) Confidential information.
Manufacturers must submit a request for
confidentiality with each electronic
submission specifying any part of the
for information or data in a report that
it believes should be withheld from
public disclosure as trade secret or other
confidential business information.
Information submitted to EPA should
follow EPA guidelines for treatment of
confidentiality. Requests for
confidential treatment for information
submitted to NHTSA must be filed in
accordance with the requirements of 49
CFR part 512, including submission of
a request for confidential treatment and
the information for which confidential
treatment is requested as specified by
part 512. For any information or data
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requested by the manufacturer to be
withheld under 5 U.S.C. 552(b)(4) and
49 U.S.C. 32910(c), the manufacturer
shall present arguments and provide
evidence in its request for
confidentiality demonstrating that–
(1) The item is within the scope of 5
U.S.C. 552(b)(4) and 49 U.S.C. 32910(c);
(2) The disclosure of the information
at issue would cause significant
competitive damage;
(3) The period during which the item
must be withheld to avoid that damage;
and
(4) How earlier disclosure would
result in that damage.
(g) Additional required information.
The following additional information is
required to be submitted through the
EPA database. NHTSA reserves the right
to ask a manufacturer to provide
additional information if necessary to
verify the fuel consumption
requirements of this regulation.
(1) Small businesses. For model years
2013 through 2020, vehicles and
engines produced by small business
manufacturers meeting the criteria in 13
CFR 121.201 are exempted from the
requirements of this part. Qualifying
small business manufacturers must
notify EPA and NHTSA Administrators
before importing or introducing into
U.S. commerce exempted vehicles or
engines. This notification must include
a description of the manufacturer’s
qualification as a small business under
13 CFR 121.201. Manufacturers must
submit this notification to EPA, and
EPA will provide the notification to
NHTSA. The agencies may review a
manufacturer’s qualification as a small
business manufacturer under 13 CFR
121.201.
(2) Emergency vehicles. For model
years 2021 and later, emergency
vehicles produced by heavy-duty
pickup truck and van manufacturers are
exempted except those produced by
manufacturers voluntarily complying
with standards in § 535.5(a).
Manufacturers must notify the agencies
in writing if using the provisions in
§ 535.5(a) to produce exempted
emergency vehicles in a given model
year, either in the report specified in 40
CFR 86.1865 or in a separate
submission.
(3) Early introduction. The provision
applies to manufacturers seeking to
comply early with the NHTSA’s fuel
consumption program prior to model
year 2014. The manufacturer must send
the request to EPA before submitting its
first application for a certificate of
conformity.
(4) NHTSA voluntary compliance
model years. Manufacturers must
submit a statement declaring whether
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the manufacturer chooses to comply
voluntarily with NHTSA’s fuel
consumption standards for model years
2014 through 2015. The manufacturers
must acknowledge that once selected,
the decision cannot be reversed and the
manufacturer will continue to comply
with the fuel consumption standards for
subsequent model years. The
manufacturer must send the statement
to EPA before submitting its first
application for a certificate of
conformity.
(5) Alternative engine standards.
Manufacturers choosing to comply with
the alternative engine standards must
notify EPA and NHTSA of their choice
and include in that notification a
demonstration that it has exhausted all
available credits and credit
opportunities. The manufacturer must
send the statement to EPA before
submitting its EOY report.
(6) Alternate phase-in. Manufacturers
choosing to comply with the alternative
engine phase-in must notify EPA and
NHTSA of their choice. The
manufacturer must send the statement
to EPA before submitting its first
application for a certificate of
conformity.
(7) Off-road exclusion (tractors,
vocational vehicles and trailers only). (i)
Tractors and vocational vehicles
intended to be used extensively in offroad environments such as forests, oil
fields, and construction sites may be
exempted without request from the
requirements of this regulation as
specified in 49 CFR 523.2 and
§ 535.5(b). Within 90 days after the end
of each model year, manufacturers must
send EPA and NHTSA through the EPA
database a report with the following
information:
(A) A description of each excluded
vehicle configuration, including an
explanation of why it qualifies for this
exclusion.
(B) The number of vehicles excluded
for each vehicle configuration.
(ii) A manufacturer having an off-road
vehicle failing to meet the criteria under
the agencies’ off-road exclusions will be
allowed to request an exclusion of such
a vehicle from EPA and NHTSA. The
approval will be granted through the
certification process for the vehicle
family and will be done in collaboration
between EPA and NHTSA in accordance
with the provisions in 40 CFR 1037.150,
1037.210, and 1037.630.
(8) Vocational tractors. Tractors
intended to be used as vocational
tractors may comply with vocational
vehicle standards in § 535.5(b) of this
regulation. Manufacturers classifying
tractors as vocational tractors must
provide a description of how they meet
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the qualifications in their applications
for certificates of conformity as
specified in 40 CFR 1037.205.
(9) Approval of alternate methods to
determine drag coefficients (tractors
only). Manufacturers seeking to use
alternative methods to determine
aerodynamic drag coefficients must
provide a request and gain approval by
EPA in accordance with 40 CFR
1037.525. The manufacturer must send
the request to EPA before submitting its
first application for a certificate of
conformity.
(10) Innovative and off-cycle
technology credits. Manufacturers
pursuing innovative and off-cycle
technology credits must submit
information to the agencies and may be
subject to a public evaluation process in
which the public would have
opportunity for comment if the
manufacturer is not using a test
procedure in accordance with 40 CFR
1037.610(c). Whether the approach
involves on-road testing, modeling, or
some other analytical approach, the
manufacturer would be required to
present a final methodology to EPA and
NHTSA. EPA and NHTSA would
approve the methodology and credits
only if certain criteria were met.
Baseline emissions and fuel
consumption and control emissions and
fuel consumption would need to be
clearly demonstrated over a wide range
of real world driving conditions and
over a sufficient number of vehicles to
address issues of uncertainty with the
data. Data would need to be on a vehicle
model-specific basis unless a
manufacturer demonstrated modelspecific data was not necessary. The
agencies may publish a notice of
availability in the Federal Register
notifying the public of a manufacturer’s
proposed alternative off-cycle credit
calculation methodology and provide
opportunity for comment. Any notice
will include details regarding the
methodology, but not include any
Confidential Business Information.
(11) Credit trades. If a manufacturer
trades fuel consumption credits, it must
send EPA and NHTSA a fuel
consumption credit plan as specified in
§ 535.7(a) and provide the following
information within 90 days after the
transaction:
(i) As the seller, the manufacturer
must include the following information
in its report:
(A) The corporate names of the buyer
and any brokers.
(B) A copy of any contracts related to
the trade.
(C) The fleet, vehicle or engine
families that generated fuel
consumption credits for the trade,
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including the number of fuel
consumption credits from each family.
(ii) As the buyer, the manufacturer or
entity must include the following
information in its report:
(A) The corporate names of the seller
and any brokers.
(B) A copy of any contracts related to
the trade.
(C) How the manufacturer or entity
intends to use the fuel consumption
credits, including the number of fuel
consumption credits it intends to apply
to each vehicle family (if known).
(D) A copy of the contract with
signatures from both the buyer and the
seller.
(12) Production reports. Within 90
days after the end of the model year,
manufacturers must send to EPA a
report including the total U.S.-directed
production volume of vehicles it
produced in each vehicle and engine
family during the model year (based on
information available at the time of the
report) as required by 40 CFR 1036.250
and 40 CFR 1037.250. Each
manufacturer shall report by vehicle or
engine identification number and by
configuration and identify the subfamily
identifier. Report uncertified vehicles
sold to secondary vehicle
manufacturers. Small business
manufacturers may omit reporting.
Identify any differences between
volumes included for EPA but excluded
for NHTSA.
(h) Public information. Based upon
information submitted by manufacturers
and EPA, NHTSA will publish fuel
consumption standards and
performance results.
(i) Information received from EPA.
NHTSA will receive information from
EPA as specified in 40 CFR 1036.755
and 1037.755.
(j) Recordkeeping. NHTSA has the
same recordkeeping requirements as
EPA, specified in 40 CFR 86.1865–12(k),
1036.250, 1036.735, 1036.825, 1037.250,
1037.735, and 1037.825. The agencies
each reserve the right to request
information contained in records
separately. If collected separately and
NHTSA finds that information is
provided fraudulent or grossly negligent
or otherwise provided in bad faith, the
manufacturer may be liable to civil
penalties in accordance with each
agencies authority.
§ 535.9
Enforcement approach.
(a) Compliance. (1) Each year NHTSA
will assess compliance with fuel
consumption standards as specified in
§ 535.10.
(i) NHTSA may conduct audits or
verification testing prior to first sale
throughout a given model year or after
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the model year in order to validate data
received from manufacturers and will
discuss any potential issues with EPA
and the manufacturer. Audits may
periodically be performed to confirm
manufacturers credit balances or other
credit transactions.
(ii) NHTSA may also conduct field
inspections either at manufacturing
plants or at new vehicle dealerships to
validate data received from
manufacturers. Field inspections will be
carried out in order to validate the
condition of vehicles, engines or
technology prior to first commercial sale
to verify each component’s certified
configuration as initially built. NHTSA
reserves the right to conduct inspections
at other locations but will target only
those components for which a violation
would apply to OEMs and not the fleets
or vehicle owners. Compliance
inspections could be carried out through
a number of approaches including
during safety inspections or during
compliance safety testing.
(iii) NHTSA will conduct audits and
inspections in the same manner and,
when possible, in conjunction with
EPA. NHTSA will also attempt to
coordinate inspections with EPA and
share results.
(iv) Documents collected under
NHTSA safety authority may be used to
support fuel efficiency audits and
inspections.
(2) At the end of each model year
NHTSA will confirm a manufacturer’s
fleet or family performance values
against the applicable standards and, if
a manufacturer uses a credit flexibility,
the amount of credits in each averaging
set. The averaging set balance is based
upon the engines or vehicles
performance above or below the
applicable regulatory subcategory
standards in each respective averaging
set and any credits that are traded into
or out of an averaging set during the
model year.
(i) If the balance is positive, the
manufacturer is designated as having a
credit surplus.
(ii) If the balance is negative, the
manufacturer is designated as having a
credit deficit.
(iii) NHTSA will provide notification
to each manufacturer confirming its
credit balance(s) after the end of each
model year directly or through EPA.
(3) Manufacturer are required to
confirm the negative balance and submit
a fuel consumption credit plan as
specified in § 535.7(a) along with
supporting documentation indicating
how it will allocate existing credits or
earn (providing information on future
vehicles, engines or technologies), and/
or acquire credits, or else be liable for
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a civil penalty as determined in
paragraph (b) of this section. The
manufacturer must submit the
information within 60 days of receiving
agency notification.
(4) Credit shortfall within an
averaging set may be carried forward
only three years, and if not offset by
earned or traded credits, the
manufacturer may be liable for a civil
penalty as described in paragraph (b) of
this section.
(5) Credit allocation plans received
from a manufacturer will be reviewed
and approved by NHTSA. NHTSA will
approve a credit allocation plan unless
it determines that the proposed credits
are unavailable or that it is unlikely that
the plan will result in the manufacturer
earning or acquiring sufficient credits to
offset the subject credit shortfall. In the
case where a manufacturer submits a
plan to acquire future model year
credits earned by another manufacturer,
NHTSA will require a signed agreement
by both manufacturers to initiate a
review of the plan. If a plan is approved,
NHTSA will revise the respective
manufacturer’s credit account
accordingly by identifying which
existing or traded credits are being used
to address the credit shortfall, or by
identifying the manufacturer’s plan to
earn future credits for addressing the
respective credit shortfall. If a plan is
rejected, NHTSA will notify the
respective manufacturer and request a
revised plan. The manufacturer must
submit a revised plan within 14 days of
receiving agency notification. The
agency will provide a manufacturer one
opportunity to submit a revised credit
allocation plan before it initiates civil
penalty proceedings.
(6) For purposes of this regulation,
NHTSA will treat the use of future
credits for compliance, as through a
credit allocation plan, as a deferral of
civil penalties for non-compliance with
an applicable fuel consumption
standard.
(7) If NHTSA receives and approves a
manufacturer’s credit allocation plan to
earn future credits within the following
three model years in order to comply
with regulatory obligations, NHTSA will
defer levying civil penalties for noncompliance until the date(s) when the
manufacturer’s approved plan indicates
that credits will be earned or acquired
to achieve compliance, and upon
receiving confirmed CO2 emissions and
fuel consumption data from EPA. If the
manufacturer fails to acquire or earn
sufficient credits by the plan dates,
NHTSA will initiate civil penalty
proceedings.
(8) In the event that NHTSA fails to
receive or is unable to approve a plan
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for a non-compliant manufacturer due
to insufficiency or untimeliness,
NHTSA may initiate civil penalty
proceedings.
(9) In the event that a manufacturer
fails to report accurate fuel consumption
data for vehicles or engines covered
under this rule, noncompliance will be
assumed until corrected by submission
of the required data, and NHTSA may
initiate civil penalty proceedings.
(10) If EPA suspends or revoke a
certificate of conformity as specified in
40 CFR 1036.255 or 1037.255, and a
manufacturer is unable to take a
corrective action allowed by EPA,
noncompliance will be assumed, and
NHTSA may initiate civil penalty
proceedings or revoke fuel consumption
credits.
(b) Civil penalties—(1) Generally.
NHTSA may assess a civil penalty for
any violation of this part under 49
U.S.C. 32902(k). This section states the
procedures for assessing civil penalties
for violations of § 535.3(h). The
provisions of 5 U.S.C. 554, 556, and 557
do not apply to any proceedings
conducted pursuant to this section.
(2) Initial determination of
noncompliance. An action for civil
penalties is commenced by the
execution of a Notice of Violation. A
determination by NHTSA’s Office of
Enforcement of noncompliance with
applicable fuel consumption standards
utilizing the certified and reported CO2
emissions and fuel consumption data
provided by the Environmental
Protection Agency as described in this
part, and after considering all the
flexibilities available under § 535.7,
underlies a Notice of Violation. If
NHTSA Enforcement determines that a
manufacturer’s averaging set of vehicles
or engines fails to comply with the
applicable fuel consumption standard(s)
by generating a credit shortfall, the
incomplete vehicle, complete vehicle or
engine manufacturer, as relevant, shall
be subject to a civil penalty.
(3) Numbers of violations and
maximum civil penalties. Any violation
shall constitute a separate violation with
respect to each vehicle or engine within
the applicable regulatory averaging set.
The maximum civil penalty is not more
than $37,500.00 per vehicle or engine.
The maximum civil penalty under this
section for a related series of violations
shall be determined by multiplying
$37,500.00 times the vehicle or engine
production volume for the model year
in question within the regulatory
averaging set. NHTSA may adjust this
civil penalty amount to account for
inflation.
(4) Factors for determining penalty
amount. In determining the amount of
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any civil penalty proposed to be
assessed or assessed under this section,
NHTSA shall take into account the
gravity of the violation, the size of the
violator’s business, the violator’s history
of compliance with applicable fuel
consumption standards, the actual fuel
consumption performance related to the
applicable standards, the estimated cost
to comply with the regulation and
applicable standards, the quantity of
vehicles or engines not complying, and
the effect of the penalty on the violator’s
ability to continue in business. The
‘‘estimated cost to comply with the
regulation and applicable standards,’’
will be used to ensure that penalties for
non-compliance will not be less than
the cost of compliance.
(5) NHTSA enforcement report of
determination of non-compliance. (i) If
NHTSA Enforcement determines that a
violation has occurred, NHTSA
Enforcement may prepare a report and
send the report to the NHTSA Chief
Counsel.
(ii) The NHTSA Chief Counsel will
review the report prepared by NHTSA
Enforcement to determine if there is
sufficient information to establish a
likely violation.
(iii) If the Chief Counsel determines
that a violation has likely occurred, the
Chief Counsel may issue a Notice of
Violation to the party.
(iv) If the Chief Counsel issues a
Notice of Violation, he or she will
prepare a case file with recommended
actions. A record of any prior violations
by the same party shall be forwarded
with the case file.
(6) Notice of violation. (i) The Notice
of Violation will contain the following
information:
(A) The name and address of the
party;
(B) The alleged violation(s) and the
applicable fuel consumption standard(s)
violated;
(C) The amount of the proposed
penalty and basis for that amount;
(D) The place to which, and the
manner in which, payment is to be
made;
(E) A statement that the party may
decline the Notice of Violation and that
if the Notice of Violation is declined
within 30 days of the date shown on the
Notice of Violation, the party has the
right to a hearing, if requested within 30
days of the date shown on the Notice of
Violation, prior to a final assessment of
a penalty by a Hearing Officer; and
(F) A statement that failure to either
pay the proposed penalty or to decline
the Notice of Violation and request a
hearing within 30 days of the date
shown on the Notice of Violation will
result in a finding of violation by default
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and that NHTSA will proceed with the
civil penalty in the amount proposed on
the Notice of Violation without
processing the violation under the
hearing procedures set forth in this
subpart.
(ii) The Notice of Violation may be
delivered to the party by—
(A) Mailing to the party (certified mail
is not required);
(B) Use of an overnight or express
courier service; or
(C) Facsimile transmission or
electronic mail (with or without
attachments) to the party or an
employee of the party.
(iii) At any time after the Notice of
Violation is issued, NHTSA and the
party may agree to reach a compromise
on the payment amount.
(iv) Once a penalty amount is paid in
full, a finding of ‘‘resolved with
payment’’ will be entered into the case
file.
(v) If the party agrees to pay the
proposed penalty, but has not made
payment within 30 days of the date
shown on the Notice of Violation,
NHTSA will enter a finding of violation
by default in the matter and NHTSA
will proceed with the civil penalty in
the amount proposed on the Notice of
Violation without processing the
violation under the hearing procedures
set forth in this subpart.
(vi) If within 30 days of the date
shown on the Notice of Violation a party
fails to pay the proposed penalty on the
Notice of Violation, and fails to request
a hearing, then NHTSA will enter a
finding of violation by default in the
case file, and will assess the civil
penalty in the amount set forth on the
Notice of Violation without processing
the violation under the hearing
procedures set forth in this subpart.
(vii) NHTSA’s order assessing the
civil penalty following a party’s default
is a final agency action.
(7) Hearing Officer. (i) If a party
timely requests a hearing after receiving
a Notice of Violation, a Hearing Officer
shall hear the case.
(ii) The Hearing Officer will be
appointed by the NHTSA
Administrator, and is solely responsible
for the case referred to him or her. The
Hearing Officer shall have no other
responsibility, direct or supervisory, for
the investigation of cases referred for the
assessment of civil penalties. The
Hearing Officer shall have no duties
related to the light-duty fuel economy or
medium- and heavy-duty fuel efficiency
programs.
(iii) The Hearing Officer decides each
case on the basis of the information
before him or her.
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(8) Initiation of action before the
Hearing Officer. (i) After the Hearing
Officer receives the case file from the
Chief Counsel, the Hearing Officer
notifies the party in writing of–
(A) The date, time, and location of the
hearing and whether the hearing will be
conducted telephonically or at the DOT
Headquarters building in Washington,
DC;
(B) The right to be represented at all
stages of the proceeding by counsel as
set forth in paragraph (b)(9) of this
section; and
(C) The right to a free copy of all
written evidence in the case file.
(ii) On the request of a party, or at the
Hearing Officer’s direction, multiple
proceedings may be consolidated if at
any time it appears that such
consolidation is necessary or desirable.
(9) Counsel. A party has the right to
be represented at all stages of the
proceeding by counsel. A party electing
to be represented by counsel must notify
the Hearing Officer of this election in
writing, after which point the Hearing
Officer will direct all further
communications to that counsel. A
party represented by counsel bears all of
its own attorneys’ fees and costs.
(10) Hearing location and costs. (i)
Unless the party requests a hearing at
which the party appears before the
Hearing Officer in Washington, DC, the
hearing may be held telephonically. In
Washington, DC, the hearing is held at
the headquarters of the U.S. Department
of Transportation.
(ii) The Hearing Officer may transfer
a case to another Hearing Officer at a
party’s request or at the Hearing
Officer’s direction.
(iii) A party is responsible for all fees
and costs (including attorneys’ fees and
costs, and costs that may be associated
with travel or accommodations)
associated with attending a hearing.
(11) Hearing procedures. (i) There is
no right to discovery in any proceedings
conducted pursuant to this subpart.
(ii) The material in the case file
pertinent to the issues to be determined
by the Hearing Officer is presented by
the Chief Counsel or his or her designee.
(iii) The Chief Counsel may
supplement the case file with
information prior to the hearing. A copy
of such information will be provided to
the party no later than three business
days before the hearing.
(iv) At the close of the Chief Counsel’s
presentation of evidence, the party has
the right to examine respond to and
rebut material in the case file and other
information presented by the Chief
Counsel. In the case of witness
testimony, both parties have the right of
cross-examination.
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(v) In receiving evidence, the Hearing
Officer is not bound by strict rules of
evidence. In evaluating the evidence
presented, the Hearing Officer must give
due consideration to the reliability and
relevance of each item of evidence.
(vi) At the close of the party’s
presentation of evidence, the Hearing
Officer may allow the introduction of
rebuttal evidence that may be presented
by the Chief Counsel.
(vii) The Hearing Officer may allow
the party to respond to any rebuttal
evidence submitted.
(viii) After the evidence in the case
has been presented, the Chief Counsel
and the party may present arguments on
the issues in the case. The party may
also request an opportunity to submit a
written statement for consideration by
the Hearing Officer and for further
review. If granted, the Hearing Officer
shall allow a reasonable time for
submission of the statement and shall
specify the date by which it must be
received. If the statement is not received
within the time prescribed, or within
the limits of any extension of time
granted by the Hearing Officer, it need
not be considered by the Hearing
Officer.
(ix) A verbatim transcript of the
hearing will not normally be prepared.
A party may, solely at its own expense,
cause a verbatim transcript to be made.
If a verbatim transcript is made, the
party shall submit two copies to the
Hearing Officer not later than 15 days
after the hearing. The Hearing Officer
shall include such transcript in the
record.
(12) Determination of violations and
assessment of civil penalties. (i) Not
later than 30 days following the close of
the hearing, the Hearing Officer shall
issue a written decision on the Notice of
Violation, based on the hearing record.
This may be extended by the Hearing
officer if the submissions by the Chief
Counsel or the party are voluminous.
The decision shall address each alleged
violation, and may do so collectively.
For each alleged violation, the decision
shall find a violation or no violation and
provide a basis for the finding. The
decision shall set forth the basis for the
Hearing Officer’s assessment of a civil
penalty, or decision not to assess a civil
penalty. In determining the amount of
the civil penalty, the gravity of the
violation, the size of the violator’s
business, the violator’s history of
compliance with applicable fuel
consumption standards, the actual fuel
consumption performance related to the
applicable standard, the estimated cost
to comply with the regulation and
applicable standard, the quantity of
vehicles or engines not complying, and
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the effect of the penalty on the violator’s
ability to continue in business. The
assessment of a civil penalty by the
Hearing Officer shall be set forth in an
accompanying final order. The Hearing
Officer’s written final order is a final
agency action.
(ii) If the Hearing Officer assesses civil
penalties in excess of $1,000,000, the
Hearing Officer’s decision shall contain
a statement advising the party of the
right to an administrative appeal to the
Administrator within a specified period
of time. The party is advised that failure
to submit an appeal within the
prescribed time will bar its
consideration and that failure to appeal
on the basis of a particular issue will
constitute a waiver of that issue in its
appeal before the Administrator.
(iii) The filing of a timely and
complete appeal to the Administrator of
a Hearing Officer’s order assessing a
civil penalty shall suspend the
operation of the Hearing Officer’s
penalty, which shall no longer be a final
agency action.
(iv) There shall be no administrative
appeals of civil penalties assessed by a
Hearing Officer of less than $1,000,000.
(13) Appeals of civil penalties in
excess of $1,000,000. (i) A party may
appeal the Hearing Officer’s order
assessing civil penalties over $1,000,000
to the Administrator within 21 days of
the date of the issuance of the Hearing
Officer’s order.
(ii) The Administrator will review the
decision of the Hearing Officer de novo,
and may affirm the decision of the
hearing officer and assess a civil
penalty, or
(iii) The Administrator may—
(A) Modify a civil penalty;
(B) Rescind the Notice of Violation; or
(C) Remand the case back to the
Hearing Officer for new or additional
proceedings.
(iv) In the absence of a remand, the
decision of the Administrator in an
appeal is a final agency action.
(14) Collection of assessed or
compromised civil penalties. (i)
Payment of a civil penalty, whether
assessed or compromised, shall be made
by check, postal money order, or
electronic transfer of funds, as provided
in instructions by the agency. A
payment of civil penalties shall not be
considered a request for a hearing.
(ii) The party must remit payment of
any assessed civil penalty to NHTSA
within 30 days after receipt of the
Hearing Officer’s order assessing civil
penalties, or, in the case of an appeal to
the Administrator, within 30 days after
receipt of the Administrator’s decision
on the appeal.
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(iii) The party must remit payment of
any compromised civil penalty to
NHTSA on the date and under such
terms and conditions as agreed to by the
party and NHTSA. Failure to pay may
result in NHTSA entering a finding of
violation by default and assessing a civil
penalty in the amount proposed in the
Notice of Violation without processing
the violation under the hearing
procedures set forth in this part.
(c) Changes in corporate ownership
and control. Manufacturers must inform
NHTSA of corporate relationship
changes to ensure that credit accounts
are identified correctly and credits are
assigned and allocated properly.
(1) In general, if two manufacturers
merge in any way, they must inform
NHTSA how they plan to merge their
credit accounts. NHTSA will
subsequently assess corporate fuel
consumption and compliance status of
the merged fleet instead of the original
separate fleets.
(2) If a manufacturer divides or
divests itself of a portion of its
automobile manufacturing business, it
must inform NHTSA how it plans to
divide the manufacturer’s credit
holdings into two or more accounts.
NHTSA will subsequently distribute
holdings as directed by the
manufacturer, subject to provision for
reasonably anticipated compliance
obligations.
(3) If a manufacturer is a successor to
another manufacturer’s business, it must
inform NHTSA how it plans to allocate
credits and resolve liabilities per 49 CFR
part 534.
§ 535.10 How do manufacturers comply
with fuel consumption standards?
(a) Pre-certification process. (1)
Regulated manufacturers determine
eligibility to use exemptions or
exclusions in accordance with § 535.3.
(2) Manufacturers may seek
preliminary approvals as specified in 40
CFR 1036.210 and 40 CFR 1037.210.
Manufacturers may request to schedule
pre-certification meetings with EPA and
NHTSA prior to submitting approval
requests for certificates of conformity to
address any joint compliance issues and
gain informal feedback from the
agencies.
(3) The requirements and prohibitions
required by EPA in special
circumstances in accordance with 40
CFR 1037.601 and 40 CFR part 1068
apply to manufacturers for the purpose
of complying with fuel consumption
standards. Manufacturers should use
good judgment when determining how
EPA requirements apply in complying
with the NHTSA program.
Manufacturers may contact NHTSA and
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EPA for clarification about how these
requirements apply to them.
(4) In circumstances in which EPA
provides multiple compliance
approaches manufacturers must choose
the same compliance path to comply
with NHTSA’s fuel consumption
standards that they choose to comply
with EPA’s greenhouse gas emission
standards.
(5) Manufacturers may not introduce
new vehicles into commerce without a
certificate of conformity from EPA.
Manufacturers must attest to several
compliance standards in order to obtain
a certificate of conformity. This includes
stating comparable fuel consumption
results for all required CO2 emissions
rates. Manufacturers not completing
these steps do not comply with the
NHTSA fuel consumption standards.
(6) Manufacturers apply the fuel
consumption standards specified in
§ 535.5 to vehicles, engines and
components that represent production
units and components for vehicle and
engine families, sub-families and
configurations consistent with the EPA
specifications in 40 CFR 86.1819,
1036.230, and 1037.230.
(7) Only certain vehicles and engines
are allowed to comply differently
between the NHTSA and EPA programs
as detailed in this section. These
vehicles and engines must be identified
by manufacturers in the ABT and
production reports required in § 535.8.
(b) Model year compliance.
Manufacturers are required to conduct
testing to demonstrate compliance with
CO2 exhaust emissions standards in
accordance with EPA’s provisions in 40
CFR part 600, subpart B, 40 CFR 1036,
subpart F, 40 CFR part 1037, subpart R,
and 40 CFR part 1066. Manufacturers
determine equivalent fuel consumption
performance values for CO2 results as
specified in § 535.6 and demonstrate
compliance by comparing equivalent
results to the applicable fuel
consumption standards in § 535.5.
(c) End-of-the-year process.
Manufacturers comply with fuel
consumption standards after the end of
each model year, if—
(1) For heavy-duty pickup trucks and
vans, the manufacturer’s fleet average
performance, as determined in § 535.6,
is less than the fleet average standard;
or
(2) For truck tractors, vocational
vehicles, engines and box trailers the
manufacturer’s fuel consumption
performance for each vehicle or engine
family (or sub-family), as determined in
§ 535.6, is lower than the applicable
regulatory subcategory standards in
§ 535.5.
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Federal Register / Vol. 80, No. 133 / Monday, July 13, 2015 / Proposed Rules
(3) For non-box and non-aero trailers,
a manufacturer is considered in
compliance with fuel consumption
standards if all trailers meet the
specified standards in § 535.5(e)(1)(i).
(4) NHTSA will use the EPA final
verified values as specified in 40 CFR
86.1819, 40 CFR 1036.755 and 1037.755
for making final determinations on
whether vehicles and engines comply
with fuel consumption standards.
(5) A manufacturer fails to comply
with fuel consumption standards if its
final reports are not provided in
accordance with § 535.7 and 40 CFR
86.1865, 1036.730, and 1037.730.
Manufacturers not providing complete
or accurate final reports by the required
deadlines do not comply with fuel
consumption standards. A manufacturer
that is unable to provide any emissions
results along with comparable fuel
consumption values must obtain
permission for EPA to exclude the
results prior to the deadline for
submitting final reports.
(6) A manufacturer that would
otherwise fail to directly comply with
fuel consumption standards as
described in paragraphs (c)(1) through
(3) of this section may use one or more
of the credit flexibilities provided under
the NHTSA averaging, banking and
trading program, as specified in § 535.7,
but must offset all credit deficits in its
averaging sets to achieve compliance.
(7) A manufacturer failing to comply
with the provisions specified in this
part may be liable to pay civil penalties
in accordance with § 535.9.
(8) A manufacturer may also be liable
to pay civil penalties if found by EPA
or NHTSA to have provided false
information as identified through
NHTSA or EPA enforcement audits or
new vehicle verification testing as
specified in § 535.9 and 40 CFR parts
86, 1036, and 1037.
PART 537—AUTOMOTIVE FUEL
ECONOMY REPORTS
290. Revise the authority citation for
part 537 to read as follows:
■
Authority: 49 U.S.C. 32907; delegation of
authority at 49 CFR 1.95.
ebenthall on DSK3VPTVN1PROD with MISCELLANEOUS
■
291. Revise § 537.5 to read as follows:
VerDate Sep<11>2014
06:45 Jul 11, 2015
Jkt 235001
§ 537.5
General requirements for reports.
(a) For each current model year, each
manufacturer shall submit a pre-model
year report, a mid-model year report,
and, as required by § 537.8,
supplementary reports.
(b)(1) The pre-model year report
required by this part for each current
model year must be submitted during
the month of December (e.g., the premodel year report for the 1983 model
year must be submitted during
December, 1982).
(2) The mid-model year report
required by this part for each current
model year must be submitted during
the month of July (e.g., the mid-model
year report for the 1983 model year
must be submitted during July 1983).
(3) Each supplementary report must
be submitted in accordance with
§ 537.8(c).
(c) Each report required by this part
must–
(1) Identify the report as a pre-model
year report, mid-model year report, or
supplementary report as appropriate;
(2) Identify the manufacturer
submitting the report;
(3) State the full name, title, and
address of the official responsible for
preparing the report;
(4) Be submitted through an electronic
portal identified by NHTSA (i.e. the
Environmental Protection Agency
VERYIFY database) or through the
NHTSA CAFE database.
(5) Identify the current model year;
(6) Be written in the English language;
and
(7)(i) Specify any part of the
information or data in the report that the
manufacturer believes should be
withheld from public disclosure as trade
secret or other confidential business
information.
(ii) With respect to each item of
information or data requested by the
manufacturer to be withheld under 5
U.S.C. 552(b)(4) and 15 U.S.C.
2005(d)(1), the manufacturer shall–
(A) Show that the item is within the
scope of sections 552(b)(4) and
2005(d)(1);
(B) Show that disclosure of the item
would result in significant competitive
damage;
(C) Specify the period during which
the item must be withheld to avoid that
damage; and
PO 00000
Frm 00629
Fmt 4701
Sfmt 9990
40765
(D) Show that earlier disclosure
would result in that damage.
(d) Each report required by this part
must be based upon all information and
data available to the manufacturer 30
days before the report is submitted to
the Administrator.
PART 538—MANUFACTURING
INCENTIVES FOR ALTERNATIVE FUEL
VEHICLES
292. Revise the authority citation for
part 538 to read as follows:
■
Authority: 49 U.S.C. 32901, 32905, and
32906; delegation of authority at 49 CFR 1.95.
■
293. Revise § 538.5 to read as follows:
§ 538.5
Minimum driving range.
(a) The minimum driving range that a
passenger automobile must have in
order to be treated as a dual fueled
automobile pursuant to 49 U.S.C.
32901(c) is 200 miles when operating on
its nominal useable fuel tank capacity of
the alternative fuel, except when the
alternative fuel is electricity or
compressed natural gas. Beginning
model year 2016, a natural gas
passenger automobile must have a
minimum driving range of 150 miles
when operating on its nominal useable
fuel tank capacity of the alternative fuel
to be treated as a dual fueled
automobile, pursuant to 49 U.S.C.
32901(c)(2).
(b) The minimum driving range that a
passenger automobile using electricity
as an alternative fuel must have in order
to be treated as a dual fueled automobile
pursuant to 49 U.S.C. 32901(c) is 7.5
miles on its nominal storage capacity of
electricity when operated on the EPA
urban test cycle and 10.2 miles on its
nominal storage capacity of electricity
when operated on the EPA highway test
cycle.
Dated: June 19, 2015.
Anthony R. Foxx,
Secretary, Department of Transportation
Dated: June 19, 2015.
Gina McCarthy,
Administrator, Environmental Protection
Agency.
[FR Doc. 2015–15500 Filed 7–10–15; 8:45 am]
BILLING CODE 6560–50–P
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Agencies
[Federal Register Volume 80, Number 133 (Monday, July 13, 2015)]
[Proposed Rules]
[Pages 40137-40765]
From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office [www.gpo.gov]
[FR Doc No: 2015-15500]
[[Page 40137]]
Vol. 80
Monday,
No. 133
July 13, 2015
Part II
Environmental Protection Agency
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40 CFR Parts 9, 22, 85, et al.
Department of Transportation
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National Highway Traffic Safety Administration
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49 CFR Parts 512, 523, 534, et al.
Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Fuel Efficiency Standards for Medium- and
Heavy-Duty Engines and Vehicles--Phase 2; Proposed Rule
Federal Register / Vol. 80 , No. 133 / Monday, July 13, 2015 /
Proposed Rules
[[Page 40138]]
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ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
40 CFR Parts 9, 22, 85, 86, 600, 1033, 1036, 1037, 1039, 1042,
1043, 1065, 1066, and 1068
DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION
National Highway Traffic Safety Administration
49 CFR Parts 512, 523, 534, 535, 537, and 538
[EPA-HQ-OAR-2014-0827; NHTSA-2014-0132; FRL-9927-21-OAR]
RIN 2060-AS16; RIN 2127-AL52
Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Fuel Efficiency Standards for
Medium- and Heavy-Duty Engines and Vehicles--Phase 2
AGENCY: Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and Department of
Transportation (DOT) National Highway Traffic Safety Administration
(NHTSA)
ACTION: Proposed rule.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
SUMMARY: EPA and NHTSA, on behalf of the Department of Transportation,
are each proposing rules to establish a comprehensive Phase 2 Heavy-
Duty (HD) National Program that will reduce greenhouse gas (GHG)
emissions and fuel consumption for new on-road heavy-duty vehicles.
This technology-advancing program would phase in over the long-term,
beginning in the 2018 model year and culminating in standards for model
year 2027, responding to the President's directive on February 18,
2014, to develop new standards that will take us well into the next
decade. NHTSA's proposed fuel consumption standards and EPA's proposed
carbon dioxide (CO2) emission standards are tailored to each
of four regulatory categories of heavy-duty vehicles: Combination
tractors; trailers used in combination with those tractors; heavy-duty
pickup trucks and vans; and vocational vehicles. The proposal also
includes separate standards for the engines that power combination
tractors and vocational vehicles. Certain proposed requirements for
control of GHG emissions are exclusive to EPA programs. These include
EPA's proposed hydrofluorocarbon standards to control leakage from air
conditioning systems in vocational vehicles, and EPA's proposed nitrous
oxide (N2O) and methane (CH4) standards for
heavy-duty engines. Additionally, NHTSA is addressing misalignment in
the Phase 1 standards between EPA and NHTSA to ensure there are no
differences in compliance standards between the agencies. In an effort
to promote efficiency, the agencies are also proposing to amend their
rules to modify reporting requirements, such as the method by which
manufacturers submit pre-model, mid-model, and supplemental reports.
EPA's proposed HD Phase 2 GHG emission standards are authorized under
the Clean Air Act and NHTSA's proposed HD Phase 2 fuel consumption
standards authorized under the Energy Independence and Security Act of
2007. These standards would begin with model year 2018 for trailers
under EPA standards and 2021 for all of the other heavy-duty vehicle
and engine categories. The agencies estimate that the combined
standards would reduce CO2 emissions by approximately 1
billion metric tons and save 1.8 billion barrels of oil over the life
of vehicles and engines sold during the Phase 2 program, providing over
$200 billion in net societal benefits. As noted, the proposal also
includes certain EPA-specific provisions relating to control of
emissions of pollutants other than GHGs. EPA is seeking comment on non-
GHG emission standards relating to the use of auxiliary power units
installed in tractors. In addition, EPA is proposing to clarify the
classification of natural gas engines and other gaseous-fueled heavy-
duty engines, and is proposing closed crankcase standards for emissions
of all pollutants from natural gas heavy-duty engines. EPA is also
proposing technical amendments to EPA rules that apply to emissions of
non-GHG pollutants from light-duty motor vehicles, marine diesel
engines, and other nonroad engines and equipment. Finally, EPA is
proposing to require that rebuilt engines installed in new incomplete
vehicles meet the emission standards applicable in the year of
assembly, including all applicable standards for criteria pollutants.
DATES: Comments on all aspects of this proposal must be received on or
before September 11, 2015. Under the Paperwork Reduction Act (PRA),
comments on the information collection provisions are best assured of
consideration if the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) receives a
copy of your comments on or before August 12, 2015.
EPA and NHTSA will announce the public hearing dates and locations
for this proposal in a supplemental Federal Register document.
ADDRESSES: Submit your comments, identified by Docket ID No. EPA-HQ-
OAR-2014-0827 (for EPA's docket) and NHTSA-2014-0132 (for NHTSA's
docket) by one of the following methods:
Online: www.regulations.gov: Follow the on-line
instructions for submitting comments.
Email: a-and-r-docket@epa.gov.
Mail:
EPA: Air and Radiation Docket and Information Center, Environmental
Protection Agency, Mail code: 28221T, 1200 Pennsylvania Ave. NW.,
Washington, DC 20460.
NHTSA: Docket Management Facility, M-30, U.S. Department of
Transportation, West Building, Ground Floor, Rm. W12-140, 1200 New
Jersey Avenue SE., Washington, DC 20590.
Hand Delivery:
EPA: EPA Docket Center, EPA WJC West Building, Room 3334, 1301
Constitution Ave. NW., Washington, DC 20460. Such deliveries are only
accepted during the Docket's normal hours of operation, and special
arrangements should be made for deliveries of boxed information.
NHTSA: West Building, Ground Floor, Rm. W12-140, 1200 New Jersey
Avenue SE., Washington, DC 20590, between 9 a.m. and 4 p.m. Eastern
Time, Monday through Friday, except Federal holidays.
Instructions: EPA and NHTSA have established dockets for this
action under Direct your comments to Docket ID No. EPA-HQ-OAR-2014-0827
and/or NHTSA-2014-0132, respectively. See the SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION
section on ``Public Participation'' for more information about
submitting written comments.
Docket: All documents in the docket are listed on the
www.regulations.gov Web site. Although listed in the index, some
information is not publicly available, e.g., confidential business
information or other information whose disclosure is restricted by
statute. Certain other material, such as copyrighted material, is not
placed on the Internet and will be publicly available only in hard copy
form. Publicly available docket materials are available either
electronically through www.regulations.gov or in hard copy at the
following locations:
EPA: Air and Radiation Docket and Information Center, EPA Docket
Center, EPA/DC, EPA WJC West Building, 1301 Constitution Ave. NW., Room
3334, Washington, DC. The Public Reading Room is open from 8:30 a.m. to
4:30 p.m., Monday through Friday, excluding legal holidays. The
telephone number for the Public Reading Room is (202) 566-1744, and the
telephone number for the Air Docket is (202) 566-1742.
NHTSA: Docket Management Facility, M-30, U.S. Department of
[[Page 40139]]
Transportation, West Building, Ground Floor, Rm. W12-140, 1200 New
Jersey Avenue SE., Washington, DC 20590. The telephone number for the
docket management facility is (202) 366-9324. The docket management
facility is open between 9 a.m. and 5 p.m. Eastern Time, Monday through
Friday, except Federal holidays.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: EPA: For hearing information or to
register, please contact: JoNell Iffland, Office of Transportation and
Air Quality, Assessment and Standards Division (ASD), Environmental
Protection Agency, 2000 Traverwood Drive, Ann Arbor, MI 48105;
Telephone number: (734) 214-4454; Fax number: (734) 214-4816; Email
address: iffland.jonell@epa.gov. For all other information related to
the rule, please contact: Tad Wysor, Office of Transportation and Air
Quality, Assessment and Standards Division (ASD), Environmental
Protection Agency, 2000 Traverwood Drive, Ann Arbor, MI 48105;
telephone number: (734) 214-4332; email address: wysor.tad@epa.gov.
NHTSA: Ryan Hagen or Analiese Marchesseault, Office of Chief
Counsel, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, 1200 New
Jersey Avenue SE., Washington, DC 20590. Telephone: (202) 366-2992;
ryan.hagen@dot.gov or analiese.marchesseault@dot.gov.
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION:
A. Does this action apply to me?
This proposed action would affect companies that manufacture, sell,
or import into the United States new heavy-duty engines and new Class
2b through 8 trucks, including combination tractors, all types of
buses, vocational vehicles including municipal, commercial,
recreational vehicles, and commercial trailers as well as \3/4\-ton and
1-ton pickup trucks and vans. The heavy-duty category incorporates all
motor vehicles with a gross vehicle weight rating of 8,500 lbs or
greater, and the engines that power them, except for medium-duty
passenger vehicles already covered by the greenhouse gas standards and
corporate average fuel economy standards issued for light-duty model
year 2017-2025 vehicles. Proposed regulated categories and entities
include the following:
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Examples of potentially
Category NAICS code \a\ affected entities
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Industry....................... 336111 Motor Vehicle
Manufacturers, Engine
Manufacturers, Truck
Manufacturers, Truck
Trailer Manufacturers.
336112
333618
336120
336212
Industry....................... 541514 Commercial Importers of
Vehicles and Vehicle
Components.
811112
811198
Industry....................... 336111 Alternative Fuel
Vehicle Converters.
336112
422720
454312
541514
541690
811198
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note:\a\ North American Industry Classification System (NAICS).
This table is not intended to be exhaustive, but rather provides a
guide for readers regarding entities likely covered by these rules.
This table lists the types of entities that the agencies are aware may
be regulated by this action. Other types of entities not listed in the
table could also be regulated. To determine whether your activities are
regulated by this action, you should carefully examine the
applicability criteria in the referenced regulations. You may direct
questions regarding the applicability of this action to the persons
listed in the preceding FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT section.
B. Public Participation
EPA and NHTSA request comment on all aspects of this joint proposed
rule. This section describes how you can participate in this process.
(1) How do I prepare and submit comments?
In this joint proposal, there are many issues common to both EPA's
and NHTSA's proposals. For the convenience of all parties, comments
submitted to the EPA docket will be considered comments submitted to
the NHTSA docket, and vice versa. An exception is that comments
submitted to the NHTSA docket on NHTSA's Draft Environmental Impact
Statement (EIS) will not be considered submitted to the EPA docket.
Therefore, the public only needs to submit comments to either one of
the two agency dockets, although they may submit comments to both if
they so choose. Comments that are submitted for consideration by one
agency should be identified as such, and comments that are submitted
for consideration by both agencies should be identified as such. Absent
such identification, each agency will exercise its best judgment to
determine whether a comment is submitted on its proposal.
Further instructions for submitting comments to either EPA or NHTSA
docket are described below.
EPA: Direct your comments to Docket ID No. EPA-HQ-OAR-2014-0827.
EPA's policy is that all comments received will be included in the
public docket without change and may be made available online at
www.regulations.gov, including any personal information provided,
unless the comment includes information claimed to be Confidential
Business Information (CBI) or other information whose disclosure is
restricted by statute. Do not submit information that you consider to
be CBI or otherwise protected through www.regulations.gov or email. The
www.regulations.gov Web site is an ``anonymous access'' system, which
means EPA will not know your identity or contact information unless you
provide it in the body of your comment. If you send an email comment
directly to EPA without going through www.regulations.gov your email
address will be automatically captured and included as part of the
comment that is placed in the public docket and made available on the
Internet. If you submit an electronic comment, EPA recommends that you
include your
[[Page 40140]]
name and other contact information in the body of your comment and with
any disk or CD-ROM you submit. If EPA cannot read your comment due to
technical difficulties and cannot contact you for clarification, EPA
may not be able to consider your comment. Electronic files should avoid
the use of special characters, any form of encryption, and be free of
any defects or viruses. For additional information about EPA's public
docket visit the EPA Docket Center homepage at https://www.epa.gov/epahome/dockets.htm.
NHTSA: Your comments must be written and in English. To ensure that
your comments are correctly filed in the Docket, please include the
Docket number NHTSA-2014-0132 in your comments. Your comments must not
be more than 15 pages long.\1\ NHTSA established this limit to
encourage you to write your primary comments in a concise fashion.
However, you may attach necessary additional documents to your
comments, and there is no limit on the length of the attachments. If
you are submitting comments electronically as a PDF (Adobe) file, we
ask that the documents submitted be scanned using the Optical Character
Recognition (OCR) process, thus allowing the agencies to search and
copy certain portions of your submissions.\2\ Please note that pursuant
to the Data Quality Act, in order for the substantive data to be relied
upon and used by the agency, it must meet the information quality
standards set forth in the OMB and Department of Transportation (DOT)
Data Quality Act guidelines. Accordingly, we encourage you to consult
the guidelines in preparing your comments. OMB's guidelines may be
accessed at https://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/fedreg/reproducible.html.
DOT's guidelines may be accessed at https://www.dot.gov/dataquality.htm.
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\1\ See 49 CFR 553.21.
\2\ Optical character recognition (OCR) is the process of
converting an image of text, such as a scanned paper document or
electronic fax file, into computer-editable text.
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(2) Tips for Preparing Your Comments
When submitting comments, please remember to:
Identify the rulemaking by docket number and other
identifying information (subject heading, Federal Register date and
page number).
Explain why you agree or disagree, suggest alternatives,
and substitute language for your requested changes.
Describe any assumptions and provide any technical
information and/or data that you used.
If you estimate potential costs or burdens, explain how
you arrived at your estimate in sufficient detail to allow for it to be
reproduced.
Provide specific examples to illustrate your concerns, and
suggest alternatives.
Explain your views as clearly as possible, avoiding the
use of profanity or personal threats.
Make sure to submit your comments by the comment period
deadline identified in the DATES section above.
(3) How can I be sure that my comments were received?
NHTSA: If you submit your comments by mail and wish Docket
Management to notify you upon its receipt of your comments, enclose a
self-addressed, stamped postcard in the envelope containing your
comments. Upon receiving your comments, Docket Management will return
the postcard by mail.
(4) How do I submit confidential business information?
Any confidential business information (CBI) submitted to one of the
agencies will also be available to the other agency. However, as with
all public comments, any CBI information only needs to be submitted to
either one of the agencies' dockets and it will be available to the
other. Following are specific instructions for submitting CBI to either
agency. If you have any questions about CBI or the procedures for
claiming CBI, please consult the persons identified in the FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION CONTACT section.
EPA: Do not submit CBI to EPA through www.regulations.gov or email.
Clearly mark the part or all of the information that you claim to be
CBI. For CBI information in a disk or CD ROM that you mail to EPA, mark
the outside of the disk or CD ROM as CBI and then identify
electronically within the disk or CD ROM the specific information that
is claimed as CBI. Information not marked as CBI will be included in
the public docket without prior notice. In addition to one complete
version of the comment that includes information claimed as CBI, a copy
of the comment that does not contain the information claimed as CBI
must be submitted for inclusion in the public docket. Information so
marked will not be disclosed except in accordance with procedures set
forth in 40 CFR part 2.
NHTSA: If you wish to submit any information under a claim of
confidentiality, you should submit three copies of your complete
submission, including the information you claim to be confidential
business information, to the Chief Counsel, NHTSA, at the address given
above under FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT. When you send a comment
containing confidential business information, you should include a
cover letter setting forth the information specified in our
confidential business information regulation.\3\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\3\ See 49 CFR part 512.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
In addition, you should submit a copy from which you have deleted
the claimed confidential business information to the Docket by one of
the methods set forth above.
(5) How can I read the comments submitted by other people?
You may read the materials placed in the docket for this document
(e.g., the comments submitted in response to this document by other
interested persons) at any time by going to https://www.regulations.gov.
Follow the online instructions for accessing the dockets. You may also
read the materials at the EPA Docket Center or NHTSA Docket Management
Facility by going to the street addresses given above under ADDRESSES.
(6) How do I participate in the public hearings?
EPA and NHTSA will announce the public hearing dates and locations
for this proposal in a supplemental Federal Register document. At all
hearings, both agencies will accept comments on the rulemaking, and
NHTSA will also accept comments on the EIS.
If you would like to present testimony at the public hearings, we
ask that you notify EPA and NHTSA contact persons listed in the FOR
FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT section at least ten days before the
hearing. Once EPA and NHTSA learn how many people have registered to
speak at the public hearing, we will allocate an appropriate amount of
time to each participant. For planning purposes, each speaker should
anticipate speaking for approximately ten minutes, although we may need
to adjust the time for each speaker if there is a large turnout. We
suggest that you bring copies of your statement or other material for
EPA and NHTSA panels. It would also be helpful if you send us a copy of
your statement or other materials before the hearing. To accommodate as
many speakers as possible, we prefer that speakers not use
technological aids (e.g., audio-visuals, computer slideshows). However,
if you plan to do so, you must notify the contact persons in the FOR
FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT section above. You also must make
arrangements to provide your presentation or any other
[[Page 40141]]
aids to EPA and NHTSA in advance of the hearing in order to facilitate
set-up. In addition, we will reserve a block of time for anyone else in
the audience who wants to give testimony. The agencies will assume that
comments made at the hearings are directed to the proposed rule unless
commenters specifically reference NHTSA's EIS in oral or written
testimony.
The hearing will be held at a site accessible to individuals with
disabilities. Individuals who require accommodations such as sign
language interpreters should contact the persons listed under FOR
FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT section above no later than ten days before
the date of the hearing.
EPA and NHTSA will conduct the hearing informally, and technical
rules of evidence will not apply. We will arrange for a written
transcript of the hearing and keep the official record of the hearing
open for 30 days to allow you to submit supplementary information. You
may make arrangements for copies of the transcript directly with the
court reporter.
C. Did EPA conduct a peer review before issuing this notice?
This regulatory action is supported by influential scientific
information. Therefore, EPA conducted a peer review consistent with
OMB's Final Information Quality Bulletin for Peer Review. As described
in Section II.C.3, a peer review of updates to the vehicle simulation
model (GEM) for the proposed Phase 2 standards has been completed. This
version of GEM is based on the model used for the Phase 1 rule, which
was peer-reviewed by a panel of four independent subject matter experts
(from academia and a national laboratory). The peer review report and
the agency's response to the peer review comments are available in
Docket ID No. EPA-HQ-OAR-2014-0827.
D. Executive Summary
(1) Commitment to Greenhouse Gas Emission Reductions and Vehicle Fuel
Efficiency
As part of the Climate Action Plan announced in June 2013,\4\ the
President directed the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the
Department of Transportation's (DOT) National Highway Traffic Safety
Administration (NHTSA) to set the next round of standards to reduce
greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and improve fuel efficiency for medium-
and heavy-duty vehicles. More than 70 percent of the oil used in the
United States and 28 percent of GHG emissions come from the
transportation sector, and since 2009 EPA and NHTSA have worked with
industry and states to develop ambitious, flexible standards for both
the fuel economy and GHG emissions of light-duty vehicles and the fuel
efficiency and GHG emissions of heavy-duty vehicles.5 6 The
standards proposed here (referred to as Phase 2) would build on the
light-duty vehicle standards spanning model years 2011 to 2025 and on
the initial phase of standards (referred to as Phase 1) for new medium
and heavy-duty vehicles (MDVs and HDVs) and engines in model years 2014
to 2018. Throughout every stage of development for these programs, EPA
and NHTSA (collectively, the agencies, or ``we'') have worked in close
partnership not only with one another, but with the vehicle
manufacturing industry, environmental community leaders, and the State
of California among other entities to create a single, effective set of
national standards.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\4\ The White House, The President's Climate Action Plan (June,
2013). https://www.whitehouse.gov/share/climate-action-plan.
\5\ The White House, Improving the Fuel Efficiency of American
Trucks--Bolstering Energy Security, Cutting Carbon Pollution, Saving
Money and Supporting Manufacturing Innovation (Feb. 2014), 2.
\6\ U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. 2014. Inventory of
U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990-2012. EPA 430-R-14-
003. Mobile sources emitted 28 percent of all U.S. GHG emissions in
2012. Available at https://www.epa.gov/climatechange/Downloads/ghgemissions/US-GHG-Inventory-2014-Main-Text.pdf.
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Through two previous rulemakings, EPA and NHTSA have worked with
the auto industry to develop new fuel economy and GHG emission
standards for light-duty vehicles. Taken together, the light-duty
vehicle standards span model years 2011 to 2025 and are the first
significant improvement in fuel economy in approximately two decades.
Under the final program, average new car and light truck fuel economy
is expected to double by 2025.\7\ This is projected to save consumers
$1.7 trillion at the pump--roughly $8,200 per vehicle for a MY2025
vehicle--reducing oil consumption by 2.2 million barrels a day in 2025
and slashing GHG emissions by 6 billion metric tons over the lifetime
of the vehicles sold during this period.\8\ These fuel economy
standards are already delivering savings for American drivers. Between
model years 2008 and 2013, the unadjusted average test fuel economy of
new passenger cars and light trucks sold in the United States has
increased by about four miles per gallon. Altogether, light-duty
vehicle fuel economy standards finalized after 2008 have already saved
nearly one billion gallons of fuel and avoided more than 10 million
tons of carbon dioxide emissions.\9\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\7\ Id.
\8\ Id.
\9\ Id. at 3.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Similarly, EPA and NHTSA have previously developed joint GHG
emission and fuel efficiency standards for MDVs and HDVs. Prior to
these Phase 1 standards, heavy-duty trucks and buses--from delivery
vans to the largest tractor-trailers--were required to meet pollution
standards for soot and smog-causing air pollutants, but no requirements
existed for the fuel efficiency or carbon pollution from these
vehicles.\10\ By 2010, total fuel consumption and GHG emissions from
MDVs and HDVs had been growing, and these vehicles accounted for 23
percent of total U.S. transportation-related GHG emissions.\11\ In
August 2011, the agencies finalized the groundbreaking Phase 1
standards for new MDVs and HDVs in model years 2014 through 2018. This
program, developed with support from the trucking and engine
industries, the State of California, Environment Canada, and leaders
from the environmental community, set standards that are expected to
save a projected 530 million barrels of oil and reduce carbon emissions
by about 270 million metric tons, representing one of the most
significant programs available to reduce domestic emissions of
GHGs.\12\ The Phase 1 program, as well as the many additional actions
called for in the President's 2013 Climate Action Plan \13\ including
this Phase 2 rulemaking, not only result in meaningful decreases in GHG
emissions, but support--indeed are critical for--United States
leadership to encourage other countries to also achieve meaningful GHG
reductions.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\10\ Id.
\11\ Id.
\12\ Id. at 4.
\13\ The President's Climate Action Plan calls for GHG-cutting
actions including, for example, reducing carbon emissions from power
plants and curbing hydrofluorocarbon and methane emissions.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
This proposal builds on our commitment to robust collaboration with
stakeholders and the public. It follows an expansive and thorough
outreach effort in which the agencies gathered input, data and views
from many interested stakeholders, involving over 200 meetings with
heavy-duty vehicle and engine manufacturers, technology suppliers,
trucking fleets, truck drivers, dealerships, environmental
organizations, and state agencies. As with the previous light-duty
rules and the heavy-duty Phase 1 rule, the agencies have consulted
[[Page 40142]]
frequently with the California Air Resources Board staff during the
development of this Phase 2 proposal, given California's unique ability
among the states to adopt their own GHG standards for on-highway
engines and vehicles. The agencies look forward to feedback and ongoing
conversation following the release of this proposed rule from all
stakeholders--including through planned public hearings, written
comments, and other opportunities for input.
(2) Overview of Phase 1 Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicle Standards
The President's direction to EPA and NHTSA to develop GHG emission
and fuel efficiency standards for MDVs and HDVs resulted in the
agencies' promulgation of the Phase 1 program in 2011, which covers new
trucks and heavy vehicles in model years 2014 to 2018. The Phase 1
program includes specific standards for combination tractors, heavy-
duty pickup trucks and vans, and vocational vehicles, and includes
separate standards for both vehicles and engines. The program offers
extensive flexibility, allowing manufacturers to reach standards
through average fleet calculations, a mix of technologies, and the use
of various credit and banking programs.
The Phase 1 program was developed through close consultation with
industry and other stakeholders, resulting in standards tailored to the
specifics of each different class of vehicles and engines.
Heavy-duty combination tractors. Combination tractors--
semi trucks that typically pull trailers--are regulated under nine
subcategories based on weight class, cab type, and roof height. These
vehicles represent approximately two-thirds of all fuel consumption and
GHG emissions from MDVs and HDVs.
Heavy-duty pickup trucks and vans. Heavy-duty pickup and
van standards are based on a ``work factor'' attribute that combines a
vehicle's payload, towing capabilities, and the presence of 4-wheel
drive. These vehicles represent about 15 percent of the fuel
consumption and GHG emissions from MDVs and HDVs.
Vocational vehicles. Specialized vocational vehicles,
which consist of a very wide variety of truck and bus types (e.g.,
delivery, refuse, utility, dump, cement, transit bus, shuttle bus,
school bus, emergency vehicles, and recreational vehicles) are
regulated in three subcategories based on engine classification. These
vehicles represent approximately 20 percent of the fuel consumption and
GHG emissions from MDVs and HDVs. The Phase 1 program includes EPA GHG
standards for recreational vehicles, but not NHTSA fuel efficiency
standards.\14\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\14\ The proposed Phase 2 program would also include NHTSA
recreational vehicle fuel efficiency standards.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Heavy-duty engines. In addition to vehicle types, the
Phase 1 rule has separate standards for heavy-duty engines, to assure
they contribute to the overall vehicle reductions in fuel consumption
and GHG emissions.
The Phase 1 standards are premised on utilization of immediately
available technologies. The Phase 1 program provides flexibilities that
facilitate compliance. These flexibilities help provide sufficient lead
time for manufacturers to make necessary technological improvements and
reduce the overall cost of the program, without compromising overall
environmental and fuel consumption objectives. The primary flexibility
provisions are an engine averaging, banking, and trading (ABT) program
and a vehicle ABT program. These ABT programs allow for emission and/or
fuel consumption credits to be averaged, banked, or traded within each
of the regulatory subcategories. However, credits are not allowed to be
transferred across subcategories.
The Phase 1 program is projected to save 530 million barrels of oil
and avoid 270 million metric tons of GHG emissions.\15\ At the same
time, the program is projected to produce $50 billion in fuel savings,
and net societal benefits of $49 billion. Today, the Phase 1 fuel
efficiency and GHG reduction standards are already reducing GHG
emissions and U.S. oil consumption, and producing fuel savings for
America's trucking industry. The market appears to be very accepting of
the new technology, and the agencies have seen no evidence of ``pre-
buy'' effects in response to the standards.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\15\ The White House, Improving the Fuel Efficiency of American
Trucks--Bolstering Energy Security, Cutting Carbon Pollution, Saving
Money and Supporting Manufacturing Innovation (Feb. 2014), 4.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
(3) Overview of Proposed Phase 2 Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicle
Standards
The Phase 2 GHG and fuel efficiency standards for MDVs and HDVs are
a critical next step in improving fuel efficiency and reducing GHG. The
proposed Phase 2 standards carry forward our commitment to meaningful
collaboration with stakeholders and the public, as they build on more
than 200 meetings with manufacturers, suppliers, trucking fleets,
dealerships, state air quality agencies, non-governmental organizations
(NGOs), and other stakeholders to identify and understand the
opportunities and challenges involved with this next level of fuel
saving technology. These meetings have been invaluable to the agencies,
enabling the development of a proposal that appropriately balances all
potential impacts and effectively minimizes the possibility of
unintended consequences.
Phase 2 would include technology-advancing standards that would
phase in over the long-term (through model year 2027) to result in an
ambitious, yet achievable program that would allow manufacturers to
meet standards through a mix of different technologies at reasonable
cost. The Phase 2 standards would maintain the underlying regulatory
structure developed in the Phase 1 program, such as the general
categorization of MDVs and HDVs and the separate standards for vehicles
and engines. However, the Phase 2 program would build on and advance
Phase 1 in a number of important ways including: Basing standards not
only on currently available technologies but also on utilization of
technologies now under development or not yet widely deployed while
providing significant lead time to assure adequate time to develop,
test, and phase in these controls; developing standards for trailers;
further encouraging innovation and providing flexibility; including
vehicles produced by small business manufacturers; incorporating
enhanced test procedures that (among other things) allow individual
drivetrain and powertrain performance to be reflected in the vehicle
certification process; and using an expanded and improved compliance
simulation model.
Strengthening standards to account for ongoing
technological advancements. Relative to the baseline as of the end of
Phase 1, the proposed standards (labeled Alternative 3 or the
``preferred alternative'' throughout this proposal) would achieve
vehicle fuel savings of up to 8 percent and 24 percent, depending on
the vehicle category. While costs are higher than for Phase 1, benefits
greatly exceed costs, and payback periods are short, meaning that
consumers will see substantial net savings over the vehicle lifetime.
Payback is estimated at about two years for tractors and trailers,
about five years for vocational vehicles, and about three years for
heavy-duty pickups and vans. The agencies are further proposing to
phase in these MY 2027 standards with interim standards for model years
2021 and 2024 (and for certain types of trailers, EPA is proposing
model year 2018 phase-in standards as well).
[[Page 40143]]
In addition to the proposed standards, the agencies are considering
another alternative (Alternative 4), which would achieve the same
performance as the proposed standards 2-3 years earlier, leading to
overall reductions in fuel use and greenhouse gas emissions. The
agencies believe Alternative 4 has the potential to be the maximum
feasible and appropriate alternative; however, based on the evidence
currently before us, EPA and NHTSA have outstanding questions regarding
relative risks and benefits of Alternative 4 due to the timeframe
envisioned by that alternative. The agencies are proposing Alternative
3 based on their analyses and projections, and taking into account the
agencies' respective statutory considerations. The comments that the
agencies receive on this proposal will be instrumental in helping us
determine standards that are appropriate (for EPA) and maximum feasible
(for NHTSA), given the discretion that both agencies have under our
respective statutes. Therefore, the agencies have presented different
options and raised specific questions throughout the proposed rule,
focusing in particular on better understanding the perspectives on the
feasible adoption rates of different technologies, considering
associated costs and necessary lead time.
Setting standards for trailers for the first time. In
addition to retaining the vehicle and engine categories covered in the
Phase 1 program, which include semi tractors, heavy-duty pickup trucks
and work vans, vocational vehicles, and separate standards for heavy-
duty engines, the Phase 2 standards propose fuel efficiency and GHG
emission standards for trailers used in combination with tractors.
Although the agencies are not proposing standards for all trailer
types, the majority of new trailers would be covered.
Encouraging technological innovation while providing
flexibility and options for manufacturers. For each category of HDVs,
the standards would set performance targets that allow manufacturers to
achieve reductions through a mix of different technologies and leave
manufacturers free to choose any means of compliance. For tractors and
vocational vehicles, enhanced test procedures and an expanded and
improved compliance simulation model enable the proposed vehicle
standards to encompass more of the complete vehicle and to account for
engine, transmission and driveline improvements than the Phase 1
program. With the addition of the powertrain and driveline to the
compliance model, representative drive cycles and vehicle baseline
configurations become critically important to assure the standards
promote technologies that improve real world fuel efficiency and GHG
emissions. This proposal updates drive cycles and vehicle
configurations to better reflect real world operation. For tractor
standards, for example, different combinations of improvements like
advanced aerodynamics, engine improvements and waste-heat recovery,
automated transmission, and lower rolling resistance tires and
automatic tire inflation can be used to meet standards. Additionally,
the agencies' analyses indicate that this proposal should have no
adverse impact on vehicle or engine safety.
Providing flexibilities to help minimize effect on small
businesses. All small businesses are exempt from the Phase 1 standards.
The agencies are proposing to regulate small business entities under
Phase 2 (notably certain trailer manufacturers), but have conducted
extensive proceedings pursuant to Section 609 of the Regulatory
Flexibility Act, and otherwise have engaged in extensive consultation
with stakeholders, and developed a proposed approach to provide
targeted flexibilities geared toward helping small businesses comply
with the Phase 2 standards. Specifically, the agencies are proposing to
delay all new requirements by one year and simplify certification
requirements for small businesses, and are further proposing additional
specific flexibilities adapted to particular types of trailers.
Summary of the Proposed Phase 2 Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicle Rule
Impacts to Fuel Consumption, GHG Emissions, Benefits and Costs Over the
Lifetime of Model Years 2018-2029, Based on Analysis Method A \a\ \b\
\c\
------------------------------------------------------------------------
3% 7%
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Fuel Reductions (billion gallons)....... 72-77
GHG Reductions (MMT, CO2eq)............. 974-1034
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pre-Tax Fuel Savings ($billion)......... 165-175 89-94
Discounted Technology Costs ($billion).. 25-25.4 16.8 -17.1
Value of reduced emissions ($billion)... 70.1-73.7 52.9-55.6
Total Costs ($billion).................. 30.5-31.1 20.0-20.5
Total Benefits ($billion)............... 261-276 156-165
Net Benefits ($billion)................. 231-245 136-144
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Notes:
\a\ For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section
I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more
dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
\b\ Range reflects two reference case assumptions, one that projects
very little improvement in new vehicle fuel efficiency absent new
standards, and the second that projects more significant improvements
in vehicle fuel efficiency absent new standards.
\c\ Benefits and net benefits (including those in the 7% discount rate
column) use the 3 percent average SCC-CO2 value applied only to CO2
emissions; GHG reductions include CO2, CH4, N2O and HFC reductions.
Summary of the Proposed Phase 2 Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicle Annual
Fuel and GHG Reductions, Program Costs, Benefits and Net Benefits in
Calendar Years 2035 and 2050, Based on Analysis Method B \a\
------------------------------------------------------------------------
2035 2050
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Fuel Reductions (Billion Gallons)....... 9.3 13.4
GHG Reduction (MMT, CO2eq).............. 127.1 183.4
Vehicle Program Costs (including -$6.0 -$7.1
Maintenance; Billions of 2012$)........
Fuel Savings (Pre-Tax; Billions of $37.2 $57.5
2012$).................................
Benefits (Billions of 2012$)............ $20.5 $32.9
[[Page 40144]]
Net Benefits (Billions of 2012$)........ $51.7 $83.2
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note:
\a\ Benefits and net benefits use the 3 percent average SCC-CO2 value
applied only to CO2 emissions; GHG reductions include CO2, CH4, N2O
and HFC reductions; values reflect the preferred alternative relative
to the less dynamic baseline (a reference case that projects very
little improvement in new vehicle fuel economy absent new standards.
Summary of the Proposed Phase 2 Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicle Program Expected Per-Vehicle Fuel Savings, GHG
Emission Reductions, and Cost for Key Vehicle Categories, Based on Analysis Method B \a\
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MY 2021 MY 2024 MY 2027
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Maximum Vehicle Fuel Savings and
Tailpipe GHG Reduction (%)
Tractors..................... 13 20 24
Trailers \b\................. 4 6 8
Vocational Vehicles.......... 7 11 16
Pickups/Vans................. 2.5 10 16
Per Vehicle Cost ($) \c\ (%
Increase in Typical Vehicle
Price) \d\
Tractors..................... $6,710 (7%) $9,940 (10%) $11,680 (12%)
Trailers..................... $900 (4%) $1,010 (4%) $1,170 (5%)
Vocational Vehicles.......... $1,150 (2%) $1,770 (3%) $3,380 (5%)
Pickups/Vans................. $520 (1%) $950 (2%) $1,340 (3%)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Notes:
\a\ Note that the proposed EPA standards for some categories of box trailers begin in model year 2018; values
reflect the preferred alternative relative to the less dynamic baseline (a reference case that projects very
little improvement in new vehicle fuel economy absent new standards.
\b\ All engine costs are included.
\c\ For this table, we use a minimum vehicle price today of $100,000 for tractors, $25,000 for trailers, $70,000
for vocational vehicles and $40,000 for HD pickups/vans.
Payback Periods for MY2027 Vehicles Under the Proposed Standards, Based
on Analysis Method B
[Payback occurs in the year shown; using 7% discounting]
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Proposed
standards
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tractors/Trailers....................................... 2nd
Vocational Vehicles..................................... 6th
Pickups/Vans............................................ 3rd
------------------------------------------------------------------------
(4) Issues Addressed in This Proposed Rule
This proposed rule contains extensive discussion of the background,
elements, and implications of the proposed Phase 2 program. Section I
includes information on the MDV and HDV industry, related regulatory
and non-regulatory programs, summaries of Phase 1 and Phase 2 programs,
costs and benefits of the proposed standards, and relevant statutory
authority for EPA and NHTSA. Section II discusses vehicle simulation,
engine standards, and test procedures. Sections III, IV, V, and VI
detail the proposed standards for combination tractors, trailers,
vocational vehicles, and heavy-duty pickup trucks and vans. Sections
VII and VIII discuss aggregate GHG impacts, fuel consumption impacts,
climate impacts, and impacts on non-GHG emissions. Section IX evaluates
the economic impacts of the proposed standards. Sections X, XI, and XII
present the alternatives analyses, consideration of natural gas
vehicles, and the agencies' initial response to recommendations from
the Academy of Sciences. Finally, Sections XIII and XIV discuss the
changes that the proposed Phase 2 rules would have on Phase 1 standards
and other regulatory provisions. In addition to this preamble, the
agencies have also prepared a joint Draft Regulatory Impact Analysis
(DRIA) which is available on our respective Web sites and in the public
docket for this rulemaking which provides additional data, analysis and
discussion of the proposed standards and the alternatives analyzed by
the agencies. We request comment on all aspects of this proposed
rulemaking, including the DRIA.
Table of Contents
A. Does this action apply to me?
B. Public Participation
C. Did EPA conduct a peer review before issuing this notice?
D. Executive Summary
I. Overview
A. Background
B. Summary of Phase 1 Program
C. Summary of the Proposed Phase 2 Standards and Requirements
D. Summary of the Costs and Benefits of the Proposed Rule
E. EPA and NHTSA Statutory Authorities
F. Other Issues
II. Vehicle Simulation, Engine Standards and Test Procedures
A. Introduction and Summary of Phase 1 and Phase 2 Regulatory
Structures
B. Phase 2 Proposed Regulatory Structure
C. Proposed Vehicle Simulation Model--Phase 2 GEM
D. Proposed Engine Test Procedures and Engine Standards
III. Class 7 and 8 Combination Tractors
A. Summary of the Phase 1 Tractor Program
B. Overview of the Proposed Phase 2 Tractor Program
C. Proposed Phase 2 Tractor Standards
D. Feasibility of the Proposed Tractor Standards
E. Proposed Compliance Provisions for Tractors
F. Flexibility Provisions
IV. Trailers
A. Summary of Trailer Consideration in Phase 1
B. The Trailer Industry
C. Proposed Phase 2 Trailer Standards
D. Feasibility of the Proposed Trailer Standards
E. Alternative Standards and Feasibility Considered
F. Trailer Standards: Compliance and Flexibilities
V. Class 2b-8 Vocational Vehicles
A. Summary of Phase 1 Vocational Vehicle Standards
[[Page 40145]]
B. Proposed Phase 2 Standards for Vocational Vehicles
C. Feasibility of the Proposed Vocational Vehicle Standards
D. Alternative Vocational Vehicle Standards Considered
E. Compliance Provisions for Vocational Vehicles
VI. Heavy-Duty Pickups and Vans
A. Introduction and Summary of Phase 1 HD Pickup and Van
Standards
B. Proposed HD Pickup and Van Standards
C. Feasibility of Pickup and Van Standards
D. DOT CAFE Model Analysis of the Regulatory Alternatives for HD
Pickups and Vans
E. Compliance and Flexibility for HD Pickup and Van Standards
VII. Aggregate GHG, Fuel Consumption, and Climate Impacts
A. What methodologies did the agencies use to project GHG
emissions and fuel consumption impacts?
B. Analysis of Fuel Consumption and GHG Emissions Impacts
Resulting From Proposed Standards and Alternative 4
C. What are the projected reductions in fuel consumption and GHG
emissions?
VIII. How will this proposed action impact non-GHG emissions and
their associated effects?
A. Emissions Inventory Impacts
B. Health Effects of Non-GHG Pollutants
C. Environmental Effects of Non-GHG Pollutants
D. Air Quality Impacts of Non-GHG Pollutants
IX. Economic and Other Impacts
A. Conceptual Framework
B. Vehicle-Related Costs Associated With the Program
C. Changes in Fuel Consumption and Expenditures
D. Maintenance Expenditures
E. Analysis of the Rebound Effect
F. Impact on Class Shifting, Fleet Turnover, and Sales
G. Monetized GHG Impacts
H. Monetized Non-GHG Health Impacts
I. Energy Security Impacts
J. Other Impacts
K. Summary of Benefits and Costs
L. Employment Impacts
M. Cost of Ownership and Payback Analysis
N. Safety Impacts
X. Analysis of the Alternatives
A. What are the alternatives that the agencies considered?
B. How do these alternatives compare in overall fuel consumption
and GHG emissions reductions and in benefits and costs?
XI. Natural Gas Vehicles and Engines
A. Natural Gas Engine and Vehicle Technology
B. GHG Lifecycle Analysis for Natural Gas Vehicles
C. Projected Use of LNG and CNG
D. Natural Gas Emission Control Measures
E. Dimethyl Ether
XII. Agencies' Response to Recommendations From the National Academy
of Sciences
A. Overview
B. Major Findings and Recommendations of the NAS Phase 2 First
Report
XIII. Amendments to Phase 1 Standards
A. EPA Amendments
B. Other Compliance Provisions for NHTSA
XIV. Other Proposed Regulatory Provisions
A. Proposed Amendments Related to Heavy-Duty Highway Engines and
Vehicles
B. Amendments Affecting Gliders and Glider Kits
C. Applying the General Compliance Provisions of 40 CFR Part
1068 to Light-Duty Vehicles, Light-Duty Trucks, Chassis-Certified
Class 2B and 3 Heavy-Duty Vehicles and Highway Motorcycles
D. Amendments to General Compliance Provisions in 40 CFR Part
1068
E. Amendments to Light-Duty Greenhouse Gas Program Requirements
F. Amendments to Highway and Nonroad Test Procedures and
Certification Requirements
G. Amendments Related to Nonroad Diesel Engines in 40 CFR Part
1039
H. Amendments Related to Marine Diesel Engines in 40 CFR Parts
1042 and 1043
I. Amendments Related to Locomotives in 40 CFR Part 1033
J. Miscellaneous EPA Amendments
K. Amending 49 CFR Parts 512 and 537 To Allow Electronic
Submissions and Defining Data Formats for Light-Duty Vehicle
Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) Reports
XV. Statutory and Executive Order Reviews
A. Executive Order 12866: Regulatory Planning and Review and
Executive Order 13563: Improving Regulation and Regulatory Review
B. National Environmental Policy Act
C. Paperwork Reduction Act
D. Regulatory Flexibility Act
E. Unfunded Mandates Reform Act
F. Executive Order 13132: Federalism
G. Executive Order 13175: Consultation and Coordination With
Indian Tribal Governments
H. Executive Order 13045: Protection of Children From
Environmental Health Risks and Safety Risks
I. Executive Order 13211: Actions Concerning Regulations That
Significantly Affect Energy Supply, Distribution, or Use
J. National Technology Transfer and Advancement Act and 1 CFR
Part 51
K. Executive Order 12898: Federal Actions To Address
Environmental Justice in Minority Populations and Low-Income
Populations
L. Endangered Species Act
XVI. EPA and NHTSA Statutory Authorities
A. EPA
B. NHTSA
C. List of Subjects
I. Overview
A. Background
This background and summary of the proposed Phase 2 GHG emissions
and fuel efficiency standards includes an overview of the heavy-duty
truck industry and related regulatory and non-regulatory programs, a
summary of the Phase 1 GHG emissions and fuel efficiency program, a
summary of the proposed Phase 2 standards and requirements, a summary
of the costs and benefits of the proposed Phase 2 standards, discussion
of EPA and NHTSA statutory authorities, and other issues.
For purposes of this preamble, the terms ``heavy-duty'' or ``HD''
are used to apply to all highway vehicles and engines that are not
within the range of light-duty passenger cars, light-duty trucks, and
medium-duty passenger vehicles (MDPV) covered by separate GHG and
Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards.\16\ They do not
include motorcycles. Thus, in this rulemaking, unless specified
otherwise, the heavy-duty category incorporates all vehicles with a
gross vehicle weight rating above 8,500 lbs, and the engines that power
them, except for MDPVs.17 18
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\16\ 2017 and Later Model Year Light-Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas
Emissions and Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards; Final Rule,
77 FR 62623, October 15, 2012.
\17\ The CAA defines heavy-duty as a truck, bus or other motor
vehicles with a gross vehicle weight rating exceeding 6,000 lbs (CAA
section 202(b)(3)). The term HD as used in this action refers to a
subset of these vehicles and engines.
\18\ The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 requires
NHTSA to set standards for commercial medium- and heavy-duty on-
highway vehicles, defined as on-highway vehicles with a GVWR of
10,000 lbs or more, and work trucks, defined as vehicles with a GVWR
between 8,500 and 10,000 lbs and excluding medium duty passenger
vehicles.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Consistent with the President's direction, over the past two years
as we have developed this proposal, the agencies have met on an on-
going basis with a very large number of diverse stakeholders. This
includes meetings, and in many cases site visits, with truck, trailer,
and engine manufacturers; technology supplier companies and their trade
associations (e.g., transmissions, drive lines, fuel systems,
turbochargers, tires, catalysts, and many others); line haul and
vocational trucking firms and trucking associations; the trucking
industries owner-operator association; truck dealerships and dealers
associations; trailer manufacturers and their trade association; non-
governmental organizations (NGOs, including environmental NGOs,
national security NGOs, and consumer advocacy NGOs); state air quality
agencies; manufacturing labor unions; and many other stakeholders. In
particular, NHTSA and EPA have consulted on an on-going basis with the
California Air Resources Board (CARB) over the past two years as we
have developed the Phase 2 proposal. In addition, CARB staff and
managers have also participated with EPA and NHTSA in meetings with
[[Page 40146]]
many external stakeholders, in particular with vehicle OEMs and
technology suppliers.\19\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\19\ Vehicle chassis manufacturers are known in this industry as
original equipment manufacturers or OEMs.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
NHTSA and EPA staff also participated in a large number of
technical and policy conferences over the past two years related to the
technological, economic, and environmental aspects of the heavy-duty
trucking industry. The agencies also met with regulatory counterparts
from several other nations who either have already or are considering
establishing fuel consumption or GHG requirements, including outreach
with representatives from the governments of Canada, the European
Commission, Japan, and China.
These comprehensive outreach actions by the agencies provided us
with information to assist in our identification of potential
technologies that can be used to reduce heavy-duty GHG emissions and
improve fuel efficiency. The outreach has also helped the agencies to
identify and understand the opportunities and challenges involved with
the proposed standards for the heavy-duty trucks, trailers, and engines
detailed in this preamble, including time needed for implementation of
various technologies and potential costs and fuel savings. The scope of
this outreach effort to gather input for the proposal included well
over 200 meetings with stakeholders. These meetings and conferences
have been invaluable to the agencies. We believe they have enabled us
to develop this proposal in such a way as to appropriately balance all
of the potential impacts, to minimize the possibility of unintended
consequences, and to ensure that we are requesting comment on a wide
range of issues that can inform the final rule.
(1) Brief Overview of the Heavy-Duty Truck Industry
The heavy-duty sector is diverse in several respects, including the
types of manufacturing companies involved, the range of sizes of trucks
and engines they produce, the types of work for which the trucks are
designed, and the regulatory history of different subcategories of
vehicles and engines. The current heavy-duty fleet encompasses vehicles
from the ``18-wheeler'' combination tractors one sees on the highway to
the largest pickup trucks and vans, as well as vocational vehicles
covering a range between these extremes. Together, the HD sector spans
a wide range of vehicles with often specialized form and function. A
primary indicator of the diversity among heavy-duty trucks is the range
of load-carrying capability across the industry. The heavy-duty truck
sector is often subdivided by vehicle weight classifications, as
defined by the vehicle's gross vehicle weight rating (GVWR), which is a
measure of the combined curb (empty) weight and cargo carrying capacity
of the truck.\20\ Table I-1 below outlines the vehicle weight
classifications commonly used for many years for a variety of purposes
by businesses and by several Federal agencies, including the Department
of Transportation, the Environmental Protection Agency, the Department
of Commerce, and the Internal Revenue Service.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\20\ GVWR describes the maximum load that can be carried by a
vehicle, including the weight of the vehicle itself. Heavy-duty
vehicles (including those designed for primary purposes other than
towing) also have a gross combined weight rating (GCWR), which
describes the maximum load that the vehicle can haul, including the
weight of a loaded trailer and the vehicle itself.
Table I-1--Vehicle Weight Classification
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Class 2b 3 4 5 6 7 8
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GVWR (lb)............................... 8,501-10,000 10,001-14,000 14,001-16,000 16,001-19,500 19,501-26,000 26,001-33,000 >33,000
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
In the framework of these vehicle weight classifications, the heavy-
duty truck sector refers to ``Class 2b'' through ``Class 8'' vehicles
and the engines that power those vehicles.\21\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\21\ Class 2b vehicles manufactured as passenger vehicles
(Medium Duty Passenger Vehicles, MDPVs) are covered by the light-
duty GHG and fuel economy standards and therefore are not addressed
in this rulemaking.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unlike light-duty vehicles, which are primarily used for
transporting passengers for personal travel, heavy-duty vehicles fill
much more diverse operator needs. Heavy-duty pickup trucks and vans
(Classes 2b and 3) are used chiefly as work trucks and vans, and as
shuttle vans, as well as for personal transportation, with an average
annual mileage in the range of 15,000 miles. The rest of the heavy-duty
sector is used for carrying cargo and/or performing specialized tasks.
``Vocational'' vehicles, which may span Classes 2b through 8, vary
widely in size, including smaller and larger van trucks, utility
``bucket'' trucks, tank trucks, refuse trucks, urban and over-the-road
buses, fire trucks, flat-bed trucks, and dump trucks, among others. The
annual mileage of these vehicles is as varied as their uses, but for
the most part tends to fall in between heavy-duty pickups/vans and the
large combination tractors, typically from 15,000 to 150,000 miles per
year.
Class 7 and 8 combination tractor-trailers--some equipped with
sleeper cabs and some not--are primarily used for freight
transportation. They are sold as tractors and operate with one or more
trailers that can carry up to 50,000 lbs or more of payload, consuming
significant quantities of fuel and producing significant amounts of GHG
emissions. Together, Class 7 and 8 tractors and trailers account for
approximately two-thirds of the heavy-duty sector's total
CO2 emissions and fuel consumption. Trailer designs vary
significantly, reflecting the wide variety of cargo types. However, the
most common types of trailers are box vans (dry and refrigerated),
which are a focus of this Phase 2 rulemaking. The tractor-trailers used
in combination applications can and frequently do travel more than
150,000 miles per year and can operate for 20-30 years.
EPA and NHTSA have designed our respective proposed standards in
careful consideration of the diversity and complexity of the heavy-duty
truck industry, as discussed in Section I.B.
(2) Related Regulatory and Non-Regulatory Programs
(a) History of EPA's Heavy-Duty Regulatory Program and Impacts of
Greenhouse Gases on Climate Change
This subsection provides an overview of the history of EPA's heavy-
duty regulatory program and impacts of greenhouse gases on climate
change.
(i) History of EPA's Heavy-Duty Regulatory Program
Since the 1980s, EPA has acted several times to address tailpipe
emissions of criteria pollutants and air toxics from heavy-duty
vehicles and engines. During the last two decades these programs have
primarily
[[Page 40147]]
addressed emissions of particulate matter (PM) and the primary ozone
precursors, hydrocarbons (HC) and oxides of nitrogen (NOX).
These programs, which have successfully achieved significant and cost-
effective reductions in emissions and associated health and welfare
benefits to the nation, were an important basis of the Phase 1 program.
See e.g. 66 FR 5002, 5008, and 5011-5012 (January 18, 2001) (detailing
substantial public health benefits of controls of criteria pollutants
from heavy-duty diesel engines, including bringing areas into
attainment with primary (public health) PM NAAQS, or contributing
substantially to such attainment); National Petrochemical Refiners
Association v. EPA, 287 F.3d 1130, 1134 (D.C. Cir. 2002) (referring to
the ``dramatic reductions'' in criteria pollutant emissions resulting
from those on-highway heavy-duty engine standards, and upholding all of
the standards).
As required by the Clean Air Act (CAA), the emission standards
implemented by these programs include standards that apply at the time
that the vehicle or engine is sold and continue to apply in actual use.
EPA's overall program goal has always been to achieve emissions
reductions from the complete vehicles that operate on our roads. The
agency has often accomplished this goal for many heavy-duty truck
categories by regulating heavy-duty engine emissions. A key part of
this success has been the development over many years of a well-
established, representative, and robust set of engine test procedures
that industry and EPA now use routinely to measure emissions and
determine compliance with emission standards. These test procedures in
turn serve the overall compliance program that EPA implements to help
ensure that emissions reductions are being achieved. By isolating the
engine from the many variables involved when the engine is installed
and operated in a HD vehicle, EPA has been able to accurately address
the contribution of the engine alone to overall emissions.
(ii) Impacts of Greenhouse Gases on Climate Change
In 2009, the EPA Administrator issued the document known as the
Endangerment Finding under CAA Section 202(a)(1).\22\ In the
Endangerment Finding, which focused on public health and public welfare
impacts within the United States, the Administrator found that elevated
concentrations of GHG emissions in the atmosphere may reasonably be
anticipated to endanger public health and welfare of current and future
generations. See also Coalition for Responsible Regulation v. EPA, 684
F.3d 102, 117-123 (D.C. Cir. 2012) (upholding the endangerment finding
in all respects). The following sections summarize the key information
included in the Endangerment Finding.
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\22\ ``Endangerment and Cause or Contribute Findings for
Greenhouse Gases Under Section 202(a) of the Clean Air Act,'' 74 FR
66496 (December 15, 2009) (``Endangerment Finding'').
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Climate change caused by human emissions of GHGs threatens public
health in multiple ways. By raising average temperatures, climate
change increases the likelihood of heat waves, which are associated
with increased deaths and illnesses. While climate change also
increases the likelihood of reductions in cold-related mortality,
evidence indicates that the increases in heat mortality will be larger
than the decreases in cold mortality in the United States. Compared to
a future without climate change, climate change is expected to increase
ozone pollution over broad areas of the U.S., including in the largest
metropolitan areas with the worst ozone problems, and thereby increase
the risk of morbidity and mortality. Other public health threats also
stem from projected increases in intensity or frequency of extreme
weather associated with climate change, such as increased hurricane
intensity, increased frequency of intense storms and heavy
precipitation. Increased coastal storms and storm surges due to rising
sea levels are expected to cause increased drownings and other adverse
health impacts. Children, the elderly, and the poor are among the most
vulnerable to these climate-related health effects. See also 79 FR
75242 (December 17, 2014) (climate change, and temperature increases in
particular, likely to increase O3 (Ozone) pollution ``over broad areas
of the U.S., including the largest metropolitan areas with the worst O3
problems, increas[ing] the risk of morbidity and mortality'').
Climate change caused by human emissions of GHGs also threatens
public welfare in multiple ways. Climate changes are expected to place
large areas of the country at serious risk of reduced water supplies,
increased water pollution, and increased occurrence of extreme events
such as floods and droughts. Coastal areas are expected to face
increased risks from storm and flooding damage to property, as well as
adverse impacts from rising sea level, such as land loss due to
inundation, erosion, wetland submergence and habitat loss. Climate
change is expected to result in an increase in peak electricity demand,
and extreme weather from climate change threatens energy,
transportation, and water resource infrastructure. Climate change may
exacerbate ongoing environmental pressures in certain settlements,
particularly in Alaskan indigenous communities. Climate change also is
very likely to fundamentally rearrange U.S. ecosystems over the 21st
century. Though some benefits may balance adverse effects on
agriculture and forestry in the next few decades, the body of evidence
points towards increasing risks of net adverse impacts on U.S. food
production, agriculture and forest productivity as temperature
continues to rise. These impacts are global and may exacerbate problems
outside the U.S. that raise humanitarian, trade, and national security
issues for the U.S. See also 79 FR 75382 (December 17, 2014) (welfare
effects of O3 increases due to climate change, with emphasis on
increased wildfires).
As outlined in Section VIII.A. of the 2009 Endangerment Finding,
EPA's approach to providing the technical and scientific information to
inform the Administrator's judgment regarding the question of whether
GHGs endanger public health and welfare was to rely primarily upon the
recent, major assessments by the U.S. Global Change Research Program
(USGCRP), the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and the
National Research Council (NRC) of the National Academies. These
assessments addressed the scientific issues that EPA was required to
examine, were comprehensive in their coverage of the GHG and climate
change issues, and underwent rigorous and exacting peer review by the
expert community, as well as rigorous levels of U.S. government review.
Since the administrative record concerning the Endangerment Finding
closed following EPA's 2010 Reconsideration Denial, a number of such
assessments have been released. These assessments include the IPCC's
2012 ``Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and
Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation'' (SREX) and the 2013-
2014 Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), the USGCRP's 2014 ``Climate Change
Impacts in the United States'' (Climate Change Impacts), and the NRC's
2010 ``Ocean Acidification: A National Strategy to Meet the Challenges
of a Changing Ocean'' (Ocean Acidification), 2011 ``Report on Climate
Stabilization Targets: Emissions, Concentrations, and Impacts over
Decades to Millennia'' (Climate Stabilization Targets), 2011 ``National
Security Implications for U.S. Naval
[[Page 40148]]
Forces'' (National Security Implications), 2011 ``Understanding Earth's
Deep Past: Lessons for Our Climate Future'' (Understanding Earth's Deep
Past), 2012 ``Sea Level Rise for the Coasts of California, Oregon, and
Washington: Past, Present, and Future'', 2012 ``Climate and Social
Stress: Implications for Security Analysis'' (Climate and Social
Stress), and 2013 ``Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change'' (Abrupt Impacts)
assessments.
EPA has reviewed these new assessments and finds that the improved
understanding of the climate system they present strengthens the case
that GHG emissions endanger public health and welfare.
In addition, these assessments highlight the urgency of the
situation as the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere
continues to rise. Absent a reduction in emissions, a recent National
Research Council of the National Academies assessment projected that
concentrations by the end of the century would increase to levels that
the Earth has not experienced for millions of years.\23\ In fact, that
assessment stated that ``the magnitude and rate of the present
greenhouse gas increase place the climate system in what could be one
of the most severe increases in radiative forcing of the global climate
system in Earth history.'' \24\ What this means, as stated in another
NRC assessment, is that:
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\23\ National Research Council, Understanding Earth's Deep Past,
p. 1
\24\ Id., p.138.
Emissions of carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels
have ushered in a new epoch where human activities will largely
determine the evolution of Earth's climate. Because carbon dioxide
in the atmosphere is long lived, it can effectively lock Earth and
future generations into a range of impacts, some of which could
become very severe. Therefore, emission reductions choices made
today matter in determining impacts experienced not just over the
next few decades, but in the coming centuries and millennia.\25\
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\25\ National Research Council, Climate Stabilization Targets,
p. 3.
Moreover, due to the time-lags inherent in the Earth's climate, the
Climate Stabilization Targets assessment notes that the full warming
from any given concentration of CO2 reached will not be
realized for several centuries.
The recently released USGCRP ``National Climate Assessment'' \26\
emphasizes that climate change is already happening now and it is
happening in the United States. The assessment documents the increases
in some extreme weather and climate events in recent decades, the
damage and disruption to infrastructure and agriculture, and projects
continued increases in impacts across a wide range of peoples, sectors,
and ecosystems.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\26\ U.S. Global Change Research Program, Climate Change Impacts
in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment, May
2014 Available at https://nca2014.globalchange.gov/.
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These assessments underscore the urgency of reducing emissions now:
Today's emissions will otherwise lead to raised atmospheric
concentrations for thousands of years, and raised Earth system
temperatures for even longer. Emission reductions today will benefit
the public health and public welfare of current and future generations.
Finally, it should be noted that the concentration of carbon
dioxide in the atmosphere continues to rise dramatically. In 2009, the
year of the Endangerment Finding, the average concentration of carbon
dioxide as measured on top of Mauna Loa was 387 parts per million.\27\
The average concentration in 2013 was 396 parts per million. And the
monthly concentration in April of 2014 was 401 parts per million, the
first time a monthly average has exceeded 400 parts per million since
record keeping began at Mauna Loa in 1958, and for at least the past
800,000 years according to ice core records.\28\
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\27\ ftp://aftp.cmdl.noaa.gov/products/trends/co2/co2_annmean_mlo.txt.
\28\ https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/.
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(b) The NHTSA and EPA Light-Duty National GHG and Fuel Economy Program
On May 7, 2010, EPA and NHTSA finalized the first-ever National
Program for light-duty cars and trucks, which set GHG emissions and
fuel economy standards for model years 2012-2016 (see 75 FR 25324).
More recently, the agencies adopted even stricter standards for model
years 2017 and later (77 FR 62624, October 15, 2012). The agencies have
used the light-duty National Program as a model for the HD National
Program in several respects. This is most apparent in the case of
heavy-duty pickups and vans, which are similar to the light-duty trucks
addressed in the light-duty National Program both technologically as
well as in terms of how they are manufactured (i.e., the same company
often makes both the vehicle and the engine, and several light-duty
manufacturers also manufacture HD pickups and vans).\29\ For HD pickups
and vans, there are close parallels to the light-duty program in how
the agencies have developed our respective heavy-duty standards and
compliance structures. However, HD pickups and vans are true work
vehicles that are designed for much higher towing and payload
capabilities than are light-duty pickups and vans. The technologies
applied to light-duty trucks are not all applicable to heavy-duty
pickups and vans at the same adoption rates, and the technologies often
produce a lower percent reduction in CO2 emissions and fuel
consumption when used in heavy-duty vehicles. Another difference
between the light-duty and the heavy-duty standards is that each agency
adopts heavy-duty standards based on attributes other than vehicle
footprint, as discussed below.
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\29\ This is more broadly true for heavy-duty pickup trucks than
vans because every manufacturer of heavy-duty pickup trucks also
makes light-duty pickup trucks, while only some heavy-duty van
manufacturers also make light-duty vans.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Due to the diversity of the remaining HD vehicles, there are fewer
parallels with the structure of the light-duty program. However, the
agencies have maintained the same collaboration and coordination that
characterized the development of the light-duty program throughout the
Phase 1 rulemaking and the continued efforts for Phase 2. Most notably,
as with the light-duty program, manufacturers would continue to be able
to design and build vehicles to meet a closely coordinated, harmonized
national program, and to avoid unnecessarily duplicative testing and
compliance burdens. In addition, the averaging, banking, and trading
provisions in the HD program, although structurally different from
those of the light-duty program, serve the same purpose, which is to
allow manufacturers to achieve large reductions in fuel consumption and
emissions while providing a broad mix of products to their customers.
The agencies have also worked closely with CARB to provide harmonized
national standards.
(c) EPA's SmartWay Program
EPA's voluntary SmartWay Transport Partnership program encourages
businesses to take actions that reduce fuel consumption and
CO2 emissions while cutting costs by working with the
shipping, logistics, and carrier communities to identify low carbon
strategies and technologies across their transportation supply chains.
SmartWay provides technical information, benchmarking and tracking
tools, market incentives, and partner recognition to facilitate and
accelerate the adoption of these strategies. Through the SmartWay
program and its related technology assessment center, EPA has worked
closely with truck and trailer manufacturers and truck fleets over the
last ten years to develop test
[[Page 40149]]
procedures to evaluate vehicle and component performance in reducing
fuel consumption and has conducted testing and has established test
programs to verify technologies that can achieve these reductions.
SmartWay partners have demonstrated these new and emerging technologies
in their business operations, adding to the body of technical data and
information that EPA can disseminate to industry, researchers and other
stakeholders. Over the last several years, EPA has developed hands-on
experience testing the largest heavy-duty trucks and trailers and
evaluating improvements in tire and vehicle aerodynamic performance. In
developing the Phase 1 program, the agencies drew from this testing and
from the SmartWay experience. In the same way, the agencies benefitted
from SmartWay in developing the proposed Phase 2 trailer program.
(d) The State of California
California has established ambitious goals for reducing GHG
emissions from heavy-duty vehicles and engines as part of an overall
plan to reduce GHG emissions from the transportation sector in
California.\30\ Heavy-duty vehicles are responsible for one-fifth of
the total GHG emissions from transportation sources in California. In
the past several years the California Air Resources Board (CARB) has
taken a number of actions to reduce GHG emissions from heavy-duty
vehicles and engines. For example, in 2008, the CARB adopted
regulations to reduce GHG emissions from heavy-duty tractors that pull
box-type trailers through improvements in tractor and trailer
aerodynamics and the use of low rolling resistance tires.\31\ The
tractors and trailers subject to the CARB regulation are required to
use SmartWay certified tractors and trailers, or retrofit their
existing fleet with SmartWay verified technologies, consistent with
California's state authority to regulate both new and in-use vehicles.
Recently, in December 2013, CARB adopted regulations that establish its
own parallel Phase 1 program with standards consistent with EPA Phase 1
standards. On December 5, 2014, California's Office of Administrative
Law approved CARB's adoption of the Phase 1 standards, with an
effective date of December 5, 2014.\32\ Complementary to its regulatory
efforts, CARB and other California agencies are investing significant
public capital through various incentive programs to accelerate fleet
turnover and stimulate technology innovation within the heavy-duty
vehicle market (e.g., Air Quality Improvement, Carl Moyer, Loan
Incentives, Lower-Emission School Bus and Goods Movement Emission
Reduction Programs).\33\ And, recently, California Governor Jerry Brown
established a target of up to 50 percent petroleum reduction by 2030.
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\30\ See https://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/cc.htm for details on the
California Air Resources Board climate change actions, including a
discussion of Assembly Bill 32, and the Climate Change Scoping Plan
developed by CARB, which includes details regarding CARB's future
goals for reducing GHG emissions from heavy-duty vehicles.
\31\ See https://www.arb.ca.gov/msprog/truckstop/trailers/trailers.htm for a summary of CARB's ``Tractor-Trailer Greenhouse
Gas Regulation''.
\32\ See https://www.arb.ca.gov/regact/2013/hdghg2013/hdghg2013.htm for details regarding CARB's adoption of the Phase 1
standards.
\33\ See https://www.arb.ca.gov/ba/fininfo.htm for detailed
descriptions of CARB's mobile source incentive programs. Note that
EPA works to support CARB's heavy-duty incentive programs through
the West Coast Collaborative (https://westcoastcollaborative.org/)
and the Clean Air Technology Initiative (https://www.epa.gov/region09/cleantech/).
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In addition to California's efforts to reduce GHG emissions that
contribute to climate change, California also faces unique air quality
challenges as compared to many other regions of the United States. Many
areas of the state are classified as non-attainment for both the ozone
and particulate matter National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS)
with California having the nation's only two ``Extreme'' ozone non-
attainment airsheds (the San Joaquin Valley and South Coast Air
Basins).\34\ By 2016, California must submit to EPA its Clean Air Act
State Implementation Plans (SIPs) that demonstrate how the 2008 ozone
and 2006 PM2.5 NAAQS will be met by Clean Air Act deadlines.
Extreme ozone areas must attain the 2008 ozone NAAQS by no later than
2032 and PM2.5 moderate areas must attain the 2006
PM2.5 standard by 2021 or, if reclassified to serious, by
2025.
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\34\ See https://www.epa.gov/airquality/greenbk/ for
more information on EPA's nonattainment designations.
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Heavy-duty vehicles are responsible today for one-third of the
state's oxides of nitrogen (NOX) emissions. California has
estimated that the state's South Coast Air Basin will need nearly a 90
percent reduction in heavy-duty vehicle NOX emissions by
2032 from 2010 levels to attain the 2008 NAAQS for ozone. Additionally,
on November 25, 2014, EPA issued a proposal to strengthen the ozone
NAAQS. If a change to the ozone NAAQS is finalized, California and
other areas of the country will need to identify and implement measures
to reduce NOX as needed to complement Federal emission
reduction measures. While this section is focused on California's
regulatory programs and air quality needs, EPA recognizes that other
states and local areas are concerned about the challenges of reducing
NOX and attaining, as well as maintaining, the ozone NAAQS
(further discussed in Section VIII.D.1 below).
In order to encourage the use of lower NOX emitting new
heavy-duty vehicles in California, in 2013 CARB adopted a voluntary low
NOX emission standard for heavy-duty engines.\35\ In
addition, in 2013 CARB awarded a major new research contract to
Southwest Research Institute to investigate advanced technologies that
could reduce heavy-duty vehicle NOX emissions well below the
current EPA and CARB standards.
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\35\ See https://www.arb.ca.gov/regact/2013/hdghg2013/hdghg2013.htm for a description of the CARB optional reduced
NOX emission standards for on-road heavy-duty engines.
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California has long had the unique ability among states to adopt
its own separate new motor vehicle standards per Section 209 of the
Clean Air Act (CAA). Although section 209(a) of the CAA expressly
preempts states from adopting and enforcing standards relating to the
control of emissions from new motor vehicles or new motor vehicle
engines (such as state controls for new heavy-duty engines and
vehicles) CAA section 209(b) directs EPA to waive this preemption under
certain conditions. Under the waiver process set out in CAA Section
209(b), EPA has granted CARB a waiver for its initial heavy-duty
vehicle GHG regulation.\36\ Even with California's ability under the
CAA to establish its own emission standards, EPA and CARB have worked
closely together over the past several decades to largely harmonize new
vehicle criteria pollutant standard programs for heavy-duty engines and
heavy-duty vehicles. In the past several years EPA and NHTSA also
consulted with CARB in the development of the Federal light-duty
vehicle GHG and CAFE rulemakings for the 2012-2016 and 2017-2025 model
years.
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\36\ See EPA's waiver of CARB's heavy-duty tractor-trailer
greenhouse gas regulation applicable to new 2011 through 2013 model
year Class 8 tractors equipped with integrated sleeper berths
(sleeper-cab tractors) and 2011 and subsequent model year dry-can
and refrigerated-van trailers that are pulled by such tractors on
California highways at 79 FR 46256 (August 7, 2014).
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As discussed above, California operates under state authority to
establish its own new heavy-duty vehicle and engine emission standards,
including standards for CO2, methane, N2O, and
hydrofluorocarbons. EPA recognizes this independent authority, and we
also recognize the potential
[[Page 40150]]
benefits for the regulated industry if the Federal Phase 2 standards
could result in a single, National Program that would meet the NHTSA
and EPA's statutory requirements to set appropriate and maximum
feasible standards, and also be equivalent to potential future new
heavy-duty vehicle and engine GHG standards established by CARB
(addressing the same model years as addressed by the final Federal
Phase 2 program and requiring the same technologies).
Similarly, CARB has expressed support in the past for a Federal
heavy-duty Phase 2 program that would produce significant GHG
reductions both at the Federal level and in California that could
enable CARB to adopt the same standards at the state level. This is
similar to CARB's approach for the Federal heavy-duty Phase 1 program,
and with past EPA criteria pollutant standards for heavy-duty vehicles
and engines. In order to further the opportunity for maintaining
coordinated Federal and California standards in the Phase 2 timeframe
(as well as to benefit from different technical expertise and
perspective), NHTSA and EPA have consulted on an on-going basis with
CARB over the past two years as we have developed the Phase 2 proposal.
The agencies' technical staff have shared information on technology
cost, technology effectiveness, and feasibility with the CARB staff. We
have also received information from CARB on these same topics. EPA and
NHTSA have also shared preliminary results from several of our modeling
exercises with CARB as we examined different potential levels of
stringency for the Phase 2 program. In addition, CARB staff and
managers have also participated with EPA and NHTSA in meetings with
many external stakeholders, in particular with vehicle OEMs and
technology suppliers.
In addition to information on GHG emissions, CARB has also kept EPA
and NHTSA informed of the state's need to consider opportunities for
additional NOX emission reductions from heavy-duty vehicles.
CARB has asked the agencies to consider opportunities in the Heavy-Duty
Phase 2 rulemaking to encourage or incentivize further NOX
emission reductions, in addition to the petroleum and GHG reductions
which would come from the Phase 2 standards. When combined with the
Phase 1 standards, the technologies the agencies are projecting to be
used to meet the proposed GHG emission and fuel efficiency standards
would be expected to reduce NOX emissions by over 450,000
tons in 2050 (see Section VIII).
EPA and NHTSA believe that through this information sharing and
dialog we will enhance the potential for the Phase 2 program to result
in a National Program that can be adopted not only by the Federal
agencies, but also by the State of California, given the strong
interest from the regulated industry for a harmonized State and Federal
program.
The agencies will continue to seek input from CARB, and from all
stakeholders, throughout this rulemaking.
(e) Environment Canada
On March 13, 2013, Environment Canada (EPA's Canadian counterpart)
published its own regulations to control GHG emissions from heavy-duty
vehicles and engines, beginning with MY 2014. These regulations are
closely aligned with EPA's Phase 1 program to achieve a common set of
North American standards. Environment Canada has expressed its
intention to amend these regulations to further limit emissions of
greenhouse gases from new on-road heavy-duty vehicles and their engines
for post-2018 MYs. As with the development of the current regulations,
Environment Canada is committed to continuing to work closely with EPA
to maintain a common Canada-United States approach to regulating GHG
emissions for post-2018 MY vehicles and engines. This approach will
build on the long history of regulatory alignment between the two
countries on vehicle emissions pursuant to the Canada-United States Air
Quality Agreement.\37\ Environment Canada has also been of great
assistance during the development of this Phase 2 proposal. In
particular, Environment Canada supported aerodynamic testing, and
conducted chassis dynamometer emissions testing.
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\37\ https://www.ijc.org/en_/Air_Quality__Agreement.
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(f) Recommendations of the National Academy of Sciences
In April 2010 as mandated by Congress in the Energy Independence
and Security Act of 2007 (EISA), the National Research Council (NRC)
under the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) issued a report to NHTSA
and to Congress evaluating medium- and heavy-duty truck fuel efficiency
improvement opportunities, titled ``Technologies and Approaches to
Reducing the Fuel Consumption of Medium- and Heavy-duty Vehicles.''
That NAS report was far reaching in its review of the technologies that
were available and that might become available in the future to reduce
fuel consumption from medium- and heavy-duty vehicles. In presenting
the full range of technical opportunities, the report included
technologies that may not be available until 2020 or even further into
the future. The report provided not only a valuable list of off the
shelf technologies from which the agencies drew in developing the Phase
1 program, but also provided useful information the agencies have
considered when developing this second phase of regulations.
In April 2014, the NAS issued another report: ``Reducing the Fuel
Consumption and Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Medium and Heavy-Duty
Vehicles, Phase Two, First Report.'' This study outlines a number of
recommendations to the U.S. Department of Transportation and NHTSA on
technical and policy matters to consider when addressing the fuel
efficiency of our nation's medium- and heavy-duty vehicles. In
particular, this report provided recommendations with respect to:
The Greenhouse Gas Emission Model (GEM) simulation tool used
by the agencies to assess compliance with vehicle standards
Regulation of trailers
Natural gas-fueled engines and vehicles
Data collection on in-use operation
As described in Sections II, IV, and XII, the agencies are
proposing to incorporate many of these recommendations into this
proposed Phase 2 program, especially those recommendations relating to
the GEM simulation tool and to trailers.
B. Summary of Phase 1 Program
(1) EPA Phase 1 GHG Emission Standards and NHTSA Phase 1 Fuel
Consumption Standards
The EPA Phase 1 GHG mandatory standards commenced in MY 2014 and
include increased stringency for standards applicable to MY 2017 and
later MY vehicles and engines. NHTSA's fuel consumption standards are
voluntary for MYs 2014 and 2015, due to lead time requirements in EISA,
and apply on a mandatory basis thereafter. They also increase in
stringency for MY 2017. Both agencies have allowed voluntary early
compliance starting in MY 2013 and encouraged manufacturers'
participation through credit incentives.
Given the complexity of the heavy-duty industry, the agencies
divided the industry into three discrete categories for purposes of
setting our respective Phase 1 standards--combination
[[Page 40151]]
tractors, heavy-duty pickups and vans, and vocational vehicles--based
on the relative degree of homogeneity among trucks within each
category. The Phase 1 rule also include separate standards for the
engines that power combination tractors and vocational vehicles. For
each regulatory category, the agencies adopted related but distinct
program approaches reflecting the specific challenges in these
segments. In the following paragraphs, we summarize briefly EPA's final
GHG emission standards and NHTSA's final fuel consumption standards for
the three regulatory categories of heavy-duty vehicles and for the
engines powering vocational vehicles and tractors. See Sections III, V,
and VI for additional details on the Phase 1 standards. To respect
differences in design and typical uses that drive different technology
solutions, the agencies segmented each regulatory class into
subcategories. The category-specific structure enabled the agencies to
set standards that appropriately reflect the technology available for
each regulatory subcategory of vehicles and the engines for use in each
type of vehicle. The Phase 1 program also provided several
flexibilities, as summarized in Section I.B(3).
The agencies are proposing to base the Phase 2 standards on test
procedures that differ from those used for Phase 1, including the
revised GEM simulation tool. Significant revisions to GEM are discussed
in Section II and the draft RIA Chapter 4, and other test procedures
are discussed further in the draft RIA Chapter 3. It is important to
note that due to these test procedure changes, the Phase 1 standards
and the proposed Phase 2 standards are not directly comparable in an
absolute sense. In particular, the proposed revisions to the 55 mph and
65 mph highway cruise cycles for tractors and vocational vehicles have
the effect of making the cycles more challenging (albeit more
representative of actual driving conditions). We are not proposing to
apply these revisions to the Phase 1 program because doing so would
significantly change the stringency of the Phase 1 standards, for which
manufacturers have already developed engineering plans and are now
producing products to meet. Moreover, the agencies intend such changes
to address a broader range of technologies not part of the projected
compliance path for use in Phase 1.
(a) Class 7 and 8 Combination Tractors
Class 7 and 8 combination tractors and their engines contribute the
largest portion of the total GHG emissions and fuel consumption of the
heavy-duty sector, approximately two-thirds, due to their large
payloads, their high annual miles traveled, and their major role in
national freight transport. These vehicles consist of a cab and engine
(tractor or combination tractor) and a detachable trailer. The primary
manufacturers of combination tractors in the United States are Daimler
Trucks North America, Navistar, Volvo/Mack, and PACCAR. Each of the
tractor manufacturers and Cummins (an independent engine manufacturer)
also produce heavy-duty engines used in tractors. The Phase 1 standards
require manufacturers to reduce GHG emissions and fuel consumption for
these vehicles and engines, which we expect them to do through
improvements in aerodynamics and tires, reductions in tractor weight,
reduction in idle operation, as well as engine-based efficiency
improvements.\38\
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\38\ We note although the standards' stringency is predicated on
use of certain technologies, and the agencies' assessed the cost of
the rule based on the cost of use of those technologies, the
standards can be met by any means. Put another way, the rules create
a performance standard, and do not mandate any particular means of
achieving that level of performance.
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The Phase 1 tractor standards differ depending on gross vehicle
weight rating (GVWR) (i.e., whether the truck is Class 7 or Class 8),
the height of the roof of the cab, and whether it is a ``day cab'' or a
``sleeper cab.'' The agencies created nine subcategories within the
Class 7 and 8 combination tractor category reflecting combinations of
these attributes. The agencies set Phase 1 standards for each of these
subcategories beginning in MY 2014, with more stringent standards
following in MY 2017. The standards represent an overall fuel
consumption and CO2 emissions reduction up to 23 percent
from the tractors and the engines installed in them when compared to a
baseline MY 2010 tractor and engine.
For Phase 1, manufacturers demonstrate compliance with the tractor
CO2 and fuel consumption standards using a vehicle
simulation tool described in Section II. The tractor inputs to the
simulation tool in Phase 1 are the aerodynamic performance, tire
rolling resistance, vehicle speed limiter, automatic engine shutdown,
and weight reduction. The agencies have verified, through our own
confirmatory testing, that the values inputs into the model by
manufacturers are generally correct. Prior to and after adopting the
Phase 1 standards, the agencies worked with manufacturers to minimize
impacts of this process on their normal business practices.
In addition to the final Phase 1 tractor-based standards for
CO2, EPA adopted a separate standard to reduce leakage of
hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) refrigerant from cabin air conditioning (A/C)
systems from combination tractors, to apply to the tractor
manufacturer. This HFC leakage standard is independent of the
CO2 tractor standard. Manufacturers can choose technologies
from a menu of leak-reducing technologies sufficient to comply with the
standard, as opposed to using a test to measure performance. Given that
HFC leakage does not relate to fuel efficiency, NHTSA did not adopt
corresponding HFC standards.
(b) Heavy-Duty Pickup Trucks and Vans (Class 2b and 3)
Heavy-duty vehicles with a GVWR between 8,501 and 10,000 lb are
classified as Class 2b motor vehicles. Heavy-duty vehicles with a GVWR
between 10,001 and 14,000 lb are classified as Class 3 motor vehicles.
Class 2b and Class 3 heavy-duty vehicles (referred to in these rules as
``HD pickups and vans'') together emit about 15 percent of today's GHG
emissions from the heavy-duty vehicle sector.\39\
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\39\ EPA MOVES Model, https://www.epa.gov/otaq/models/moves/index.htm.
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The majority of HD pickups and vans are \3/4\-ton and 1-ton pickup
trucks, 12- and 15-passenger vans,\40\ and large work vans that are
sold by vehicle manufacturers as complete vehicles, with no secondary
manufacturer making substantial modifications prior to registration and
use. These vehicles can also be sold as cab-complete vehicles (i.e.,
incomplete vehicles that include complete or nearly complete cabs that
are sold to secondary manufacturers). The majority of heavy-duty
pickups and vans are produced by companies with major light-duty
markets in the United States. Furthermore, the technologies available
to reduce fuel consumption and GHG emissions from this segment are
similar to the technologies used on light-duty pickup trucks, including
both engine efficiency improvements (for gasoline and diesel engines)
and vehicle efficiency improvements. For these reasons, EPA and NHTSA
concluded that it was appropriate to adopt GHG standards, expressed as
grams per mile, and fuel consumption standards, expressed as gallons
per 100 miles, for HD pickups and vans based on the whole vehicle
(including the engine), consistent with the way these vehicles
[[Page 40152]]
have been regulated by EPA for criteria pollutants and also consistent
with the way their light-duty counterpart vehicles are regulated by
NHTSA and EPA. This complete vehicle approach adopted by both agencies
for HD pickups and vans was consistent with the recommendations of the
NAS Committee in its 2010 Report.
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\40\ Note that 12-passenger vans are subject to the light-duty
standards as medium-duty passenger vehicles (MDPVs) and are not
subject to this proposal.
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For the light-duty GHG and fuel economy standards, the agencies
based the emissions and fuel economy targets on vehicle footprint (the
wheelbase times the average track width). For those standards,
passenger cars and light trucks with larger footprints are assigned
higher GHG and lower fuel economy target levels reflecting their
inherent tendency to consume more fuel and emit more GHGs per mile. For
HD pickups and vans, the agencies believe that setting standards based
on vehicle attributes is appropriate, but have found that a work-based
metric would be a more appropriate attribute than the footprint
attribute utilized in the light-duty vehicle rulemaking, given that
work-based measures such as towing and payload capacities are critical
elements of these vehicles' functionality. EPA and NHTSA therefore
adopted standards for HD pickups and vans based on a ``work factor''
attribute that combines their payload and towing capabilities, with an
added adjustment for 4-wheel drive vehicles.
Each manufacturer's fleet average Phase 1 standard is based on
production volume-weighting of target standards for all vehicles, which
in turn are based on each vehicle's work factor. These target standards
are taken from a set of curves (mathematical functions), with separate
curves for gasoline and diesel.\41\ However, both gasoline and diesel
vehicles in this category are included in a single averaging set. EPA
phased in the CO2 standards gradually starting in the 2014
MY, at 15-20-40-60-100 percent of the MY 2018 standards stringency
level in MYs 2014-2015-2016-2017-2018, respectively. The phase-in takes
the form of a set of target curves, with increasing stringency in each
MY.
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\41\ As explained in Section XII, EPA is proposing to recodify
the Phase 1 requirements for pickups and vans from 40 CFR 1037.104
into 40 CFR part 86, which is also the regulatory part that applies
for light-duty vehicles.
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NHTSA allowed manufacturers to select one of two fuel consumption
standard alternatives for MYs 2016 and later. The first alternative
defined individual gasoline vehicle and diesel vehicle fuel consumption
target curves that will not change for MYs 2016-2018, and are
equivalent to EPA's 67-67-67-100 percent target curves in MYs 2016-
2017-2018-2019, respectively. The second alternative defined target
curves that are equivalent to EPA's 40-60-100 percent target curves in
MYs 2016-2017-2018, respectively. NHTSA allowed manufacturers to opt
voluntarily into the NHTSA HD pickup and van program in MYs 2014 or
2015 at target curves equivalent to EPA's target curves. If a
manufacturer chose to opt in for one category, they would be required
to opt in for all categories. In other words a manufacturer would be
unable to opt in for Class 2b vehicles, but opt out for Class 3
vehicles.
EPA also adopted an alternative phase-in schedule for manufacturers
wanting to have stable standards for model years 2016-2018. The
standards for heavy-duty pickups and vans, like those for light-duty
vehicles, are expressed as set of target standard curves, with
increasing stringency in each model year. The final EPA standards for
2018 (including a separate standard to control air conditioning system
leakage) represent an average per-vehicle reduction in GHG emissions of
17 percent for diesel vehicles and 12 percent for gasoline vehicles
(relative to pre-control baseline vehicles). The NHTSA standard will
require these vehicles to achieve up to about 15 percent reduction in
fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions by MY 2018 (relative to
pre-control baseline vehicles). Manufacturers demonstrate compliance
based on entire vehicle chassis certification using the same duty
cycles used to demonstrate compliance with criteria pollutant
standards.
(c) Class 2b-8 Vocational Vehicles
Class 2b-8 vocational vehicles include a wide variety of vehicle
types, and serve a vast range of functions. Some examples include
service for urban delivery, refuse hauling, utility service, dump,
concrete mixing, transit service, shuttle service, school bus,
emergency, motor homes, and tow trucks. In Phase 1, we defined Class
2b-8 vocational vehicles as all heavy-duty vehicles that are not
included in either the heavy-duty pickup and van category or the Class
7 and 8 tractor category. EPA's and NHTSA's Phase 1 standards for this
vocational vehicle category generally apply at the chassis manufacturer
level. Class 2b-8 vocational vehicles and their engines emit
approximately 20 percent of the GHG emissions and burn approximately 21
percent of the fuel consumed by today's heavy-duty truck sector.\42\
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\42\ EPA MOVES model, https://www.epa.gov/otaq/models/moves/index.htm.
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The Phase 1 program for vocational vehicles has vehicle standards
and separate engine standards, both of which differ based on the weight
class of the vehicle into which the engine will be installed. The
vehicle weight class groups mirror those used for the engine
standards--Classes 2b-5 (light heavy-duty or LHD in EPA regulations),
Classes 6 & 7 (medium heavy-duty or MHD in EPA regulations) and Class 8
(heavy heavy-duty or HHD in EPA regulations). Manufacturers demonstrate
compliance with the Phase 1 vocational vehicle CO2 and fuel
consumption standards using a vehicle simulation tool described in
Section II. The Phase 1 program for vocational vehicles limited the
simulation tool inputs to tire rolling resistance. The model assumes
the use of a typical representative, compliant engine in the
simulation, resulting in one overall value for CO2 emissions
and one for fuel consumption.
Engines used in vocational vehicles are subject to separate Phase 1
engine-based standards. Optional certification paths, for EPA and
NHTSA, are also provided to enhance the flexibilities for vocational
vehicles. Manufacturers producing spark-ignition (or gasoline) cab-
complete or incomplete vehicles weighing over 14,000 lbs GVWR and below
26,001 lbs GVWR have the option to certify to the complete vehicle
standards for heavy-duty pickup trucks and vans rather than using the
separate engine and chassis standards for vocational vehicles.
(d) Engine Standards
The agencies established separate Phase 1 performance standards for
the engines manufactured for use in vocational vehicles and Class 7 and
8 tractors.\43\ These engine standards vary depending on engine size
linked to intended vehicle service class. EPA's engine-based
CO2 standards and NHTSA's engine-based fuel consumption
standards are being implemented using EPA's existing test procedures
and regulatory structure for criteria pollutant emissions from heavy-
duty engines.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\43\ See 76 FR 57114 explaining why NHTSA's authority under the
Energy Independence and Safety Act includes authority to establish
separate engine standards.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
The agencies also finalized a regulatory alternative whereby a
manufacturer, for an interim period of the 2014-2016 MYs, would have
the option to comply with a unique standard based on a three percent
reduction from an individual engine model's own 2011 MY baseline
level.\44\
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\44\ See 76 FR 57144.
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[[Page 40153]]
(e) Manufacturers Excluded From the Phase 1 Standards
Phase 1 temporarily deferred greenhouse gas emissions and fuel
consumption standards for any manufacturers of heavy-duty engines,
manufacturers of combination tractors, and chassis manufacturers for
vocational vehicles that meet the ``small business'' size criteria set
by the Small Business Administration (SBA). 13 CFR 121.201 defines a
small business by the maximum number of employees; for example, this is
currently 1,000 for heavy-duty vehicle manufacturing and 750 for engine
manufacturing. In order to utilize this exemption, qualifying small
businesses must submit a declaration to the agencies. See Section
I.F.(1)(b) for a summary of how Phase 2 would apply for small
businesses.
The agencies stated that they would consider appropriate GHG and
fuel consumption standards for these entities as part of a future
regulatory action. This includes both U.S.-based and foreign small-
volume heavy-duty manufacturers.
(2) Costs and Benefits of the Phase 1 Program
Overall, EPA and NHTSA estimated that the Phase 1 HD National
Program will cost the affected industry about $8 billion, while saving
vehicle owners fuel costs of nearly $50 billion over the lifetimes of
MY 2014-2018 vehicles. The agencies also estimated that the combined
standards will reduce CO2 emissions by about 270 million
metric tons and save about 530 million barrels of oil over the life of
MY 2014 to 2018 vehicles. The agencies estimated additional monetized
benefits from CO2 reductions, improved energy security,
reduced time spent refueling, as well as possible disbenefits from
increased driving accidents, traffic congestion, and noise. When
considering all these factors, we estimated that Phase 1 of the HD
National Program will yield $49 billion in net benefits to society over
the lifetimes of MY 2014-2018 vehicles.
EPA estimated the benefits of reduced ambient concentrations of
particulate matter and ozone resulting from the Phase 1 program to
range from $1.3 to $4.2 billion in 2030.\45\
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\45\ Note: These calendar year benefits do not represent the
same time frame as the model year lifetime benefits described above,
so they are not additive.
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In total, we estimated the combined Phase 1 standards will reduce
GHG emissions from the U.S. heavy-duty fleet by approximately 76
million metric tons of CO2-equivalent annually by 2030. In
its Environmental Impact Statement for the Phase 1 rule, NHTSA also
quantified and/or discussed other potential impacts of the program,
such as the health and environmental impacts associated with changes in
ambient exposures to toxic air pollutants and the benefits associated
with avoided non-CO2 GHGs (methane, nitrous oxide, and
HFCs).
(3) Phase 1 Program Flexibilities
As noted above, the agencies adopted numerous provisions designed
to give manufacturers a degree of flexibility in complying with the
Phase 1 standards. These provisions, which are essentially identical in
structure and function in NHTSA's and EPA's regulations, enabled the
agencies to consider overall standards that are more stringent and that
will become effective sooner than we could consider with a more rigid
program, one in which all of a manufacturer's similar vehicles or
engines would be required to achieve the same emissions or fuel
consumption levels, and at the same time.\46\
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\46\ NHTSA explained that it has greater flexibility in the HD
program to include consideration of credits and other flexibilities
in determining appropriate and feasible levels of stringency than it
does in the light-duty CAFE program. Cf. 49 U.S.C. 32902(h), which
applies to light-duty CAFE but not heavy-duty fuel efficiency under
49 U.S.C. 32902(k).
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Phase 1 included four primary types of flexibility: Averaging,
banking, and trading (ABT) provisions; early credits; advanced
technology credits (including hybrid powertrains); and innovative
technology credit provisions. The ABT provisions were patterned on
existing EPA and NHTSA ABT programs (including the light-duty GHG and
fuel economy standards) and will allow a vehicle manufacturer to reduce
CO2 emission and fuel consumption levels further than the
level of the standard for one or more vehicles to generate ABT credits.
The manufacturer can use those credits to offset higher emission or
fuel consumption levels in the same averaging set, ``bank'' the credits
for later use, or ``trade'' the credits to another manufacturer. As
also noted above, for HD pickups and vans, we adopted a fleet averaging
system very similar to the light-duty GHG and CAFE fleet averaging
system. In both programs, manufacturers are allowed to carry-forward
deficits for up to three years without penalty.
The agencies provided in the ABT programs flexibility for
situations in which a manufacturer is unable to avoid a negative credit
balance at the end of the year. In such cases, manufacturers are not
considered to be out of compliance unless they are unable to make up
the difference in credits by the end of the third subsequent model
year.
In total, the Phase 1 program divides the heavy-duty sector into 19
subcategories of vehicles. These subcategories are grouped into 9
averaging sets to provide greater opportunities in leveraging
compliance. For tractors and vocational vehicles, the fleet averaging
sets are Classes 2b through 5, Classes 6 and 7, and Class 8 weight
classes. For engines, the fleet averaging sets are gasoline engines,
light heavy-duty diesel engines, medium heavy-duty diesel engines, and
heavy heavy-duty diesel engines. Complete HD pickups and vans (both
spark-ignition and compression-ignition) are the final fleet averaging
set.
As noted above, the agencies included a restriction on averaging,
banking, and trading of credits between the various regulatory
subcategories by defining three HD vehicle averaging sets: Light heavy-
duty (Classes 2b-5); medium heavy-duty (Class 6-7); and heavy heavy-
duty (Class 8). This allows the use of credits between vehicles within
the same weight class. This means that a Class 8 day cab tractor can
exchange credits with a Class 8 high roof sleeper tractor but not with
a smaller Class 7 tractor. Also, a Class 8 vocational vehicle can
exchange credits with a Class 8 tractor. However, we did not allow
trading between engines and chassis. We similarly allowed for trading
among engine categories only within an averaging set, of which there
are four: Spark-ignition engines, compression-ignition light heavy-duty
engines, compression-ignition medium heavy-duty engines, and
compression-ignition heavy heavy-duty engines.
In addition to ABT, the other primary flexibility provisions in the
Phase 1 program involve opportunities to generate early credits,
advanced technology credits (including for use of hybrid powertrains),
and innovative technology credits.\47\ For the early credits and
advanced technology credits, the agencies adopted a 1.5 x multiplier,
meaning that manufacturers would get 1.5 credits for each early credit
and each advanced technology credit. In addition, advanced technology
credits for Phase 1 can be used anywhere within the heavy-duty sector
(including both vehicles and engines). Put another way, as a means of
promoting this promising technology,
[[Page 40154]]
the Phase 1 rule does not restrict averaging or trading by averaging
set in this instance.
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\47\ Early credits are for engines and vehicles certified before
EPA standards became mandatory, advanced technology credits are for
hybrids and/or Rankine cycle engines, and innovative technology
credits are for other technologies not in the 2010 fleet whose
benefits are not reflected using the Phase 1 test procedures.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
For other vehicle or engine technologies that can reduce
CO2 and fuel consumption, but for which there do not yet
exist established methods for quantifying reductions, the agencies
wanted to encourage the development of such innovative technologies,
and therefore adopted special ``innovative technology'' credits. These
innovative technology credits apply to technologies that are shown to
produce emission and fuel consumption reductions that are not
adequately recognized on the Phase 1 test procedures and that were not
yet in widespread use in the heavy-duty sector before MY 2010.
Manufacturers need to quantify the reductions in fuel consumption and
CO2 emissions that the technology is expected to achieve,
above and beyond those achieved on the existing test procedures. As
with ABT, the use of innovative technology credits is allowed only
among vehicles and engines of the same defined averaging set generating
the credit, as described above. The credit multiplier likewise does not
apply for innovative technology credits.
(4) Implementation of Phase 1
Manufacturers have already begun complying with the Phase 1
standards. In some cases manufacturers voluntarily chose to comply
early, before compliance was mandatory. The Phase 1 rule allows
manufacturers to generate credits for such early compliance. The market
appears to be very accepting of the new technology, and the agencies
have seen no evidence of ``pre-buy'' effects in response to the
standards. In fact sales have been higher in recent years than they
were before Phase 1 began. Moreover, manufacturers' compliance plans
are taking advantage of the Phase 1 flexibilities, and we have yet to
see significant non-compliance with the standards.
(5) Litigation on Phase 1 Rule
The D.C. Circuit recently rejected all challenges to the agencies'
Phase 1 regulations. The court did not reach the merits of the
challenges, holding that none of the petitioners had standing to bring
their actions, and that a challenge to NHTSA's denial of a rulemaking
petition could only be brought in District Court. See Delta
Construction Co. v. EPA, 783 F. 3d 1291 (D.C. Cir. 2015), U.S. App.
LEXIS 6780, F.3d (D.C. Cir. April 24, 2015).
C. Summary of the Proposed Phase 2 Standards and Requirements
The agencies are proposing new standards that build on and enhance
existing Phase 1 standards, as well as proposing the first ever
standards for certain trailers used in combination with heavy-duty
tractors. Taken together, the proposed Phase 2 program would comprise a
set of largely technology-advancing standards that would achieve
greater GHG and fuel consumption savings than the Phase 1 program. As
described in more detail in the following sections, the agencies are
proposing these standards because, based on the information available
at this time, we believe they would best match our respective statutory
authorities when considered in the context of available technology,
feasible reductions of emissions and fuel consumption, costs, lead
time, safety, and other relevant factors. The agencies request comment
on all aspects of our feasibility analysis including projections of
feasible market adoption rates and technological effectiveness for each
technology.
The proposed Phase 2 standards would represent a more technology-
forcing \48\ approach than the Phase 1 approach, predicated on use of
both off-the-shelf technologies and emerging technologies that are not
yet in widespread use. The agencies are proposing standards for MY 2027
that would likely require manufacturers to make extensive use of these
technologies. For existing technologies and technologies in the final
stages of development, we project that manufacturers would likely apply
them to nearly all vehicles, excluding those specific vehicles with
applications or uses that would prevent the technology from functioning
properly. We also project as one possible compliance pathway that
manufacturers could apply other more advanced technologies such as
hybrids and waste engine heat recovery systems, although at lower
application rates.
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\48\ In this context, the term ``technology-forcing'' is used to
distinguish standards that will effectively require manufacturers to
develop new technologies (or to significantly improve technologies)
from standards that can be met using off-the-shelf technology alone.
Technology-forcing standards do not require manufacturers to use any
specific technologies.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Under Alternative 3, the preferred alternative, the agencies
propose to provide ten years of lead time for manufacturers to meet
these 2027 standards, which the agencies believe is adequate to
implement the technologies industry could use to meet the proposed
standards. For some of the more advanced technologies production
prototype parts are not yet available, though they are in the research
stage with some demonstrations in actual vehicles.\49\ Additionally,
even for the more developed technologies, phasing in more stringent
standards over a longer timeframe may help manufacturers to ensure
better reliability of the technology and to develop packages to work in
a wide range of applications. Moving more quickly, however, as in
Alternative 4, would lead to earlier and greater cumulative fuel
savings and greenhouse gas reductions.
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\49\ ``Prototype'' as it is used here refers to technologies
that have a potentially production-feasible design that is expected
to meet all performance, functional, reliability, safety,
manufacturing, cost and other requirements and objectives that is
being tested in laboratories and on highways under a full range of
operating conditions, but is not yet available in production
vehicles already for sale in the market.
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As discussed later, the agencies are also proposing new standards
in MYs 2018 (trailers only), 2021, and 2024 to ensure manufacturers
make steady progress toward the 2027 standards, thereby achieving
steady and feasible reductions in GHG emissions and fuel consumption in
the years leading up to the MY 2027 standards. Moving more quickly,
however, as in Alternative 4, would lead to earlier and greater
cumulative fuel and greenhouse gas savings.
Providing additional lead time can often enable manufacturers to
resolve technological challenges or to find lower cost means of meeting
new regulatory standards, effectively making them more feasible in
either case. See generally NRDC v. EPA, 655 F. 2d 318, 329 (D.C. Cir.
1981). On the other hand, manufacturers and/or operators may incur
additional costs if regulations require them to make changes to their
products with less lead time than manufacturers would normally have
when bringing a new technology to the market or expanding the
application of existing technologies. After developing a new
technology, manufacturers typically conduct extensive field tests to
ensure its durability and reliability in actual use. Standards that
accelerate technology deployment can lead to manufacturers incurring
additional costs to accelerate this development work, or can lead to
manufacturers beginning production before such testing can be
completed. Some industry stakeholders have informed EPA that when
manufacturers introduced new emission control technologies (primarily
diesel particulate filters) in response to the 2007 heavy-duty engine
standards
[[Page 40155]]
they did not perform sufficient product development validation, which
led to additional costs for operators when the technologies required
repairs or other resulted in other operational issues in use. Thus, the
issues of costs, lead time, and reliability are intertwined for the
agencies' determination of whether standards are reasonable.
Another important consideration is the possibility of disrupting
the market, such as might happen if we were to adopt standards that
manufacturers respond to by applying a new technology too suddenly.
Several of the heavy-duty vehicle manufacturers, fleets, and commercial
truck dealerships informed the agencies that for fleet purchases that
are planned more than a year in advance, expectations of reduced
reliability, increased operating costs, reduced residual value, or of
large increases in purchase prices can lead the fleets to pull-ahead by
several months planned future vehicle purchases by pre-buying vehicles
without the newer technology. In the context of the Class 8 tractor
market, where a relatively small number of large fleets typically
purchase very large volumes of tractors, such actions by a small number
of firms can result in large swings in sales volumes. Such market
impacts would be followed by some period of reduced purchases that can
lead to temporary layoffs at the factories producing the engines and
vehicles, as well as at supplier factories, and disruptions at
dealerships. Such market impacts also can reduce the overall
environmental and fuel consumption benefits of the standards by
delaying the rate at which the fleet turns over. See International
Harvester v. EPA, 478 F. 2d 615, 634 (D.C. Cir. 1973). A number of
industry stakeholders have informed EPA that the 2007 EPA heavy-duty
engine criteria pollutant standard resulted in this pull-ahead
phenomenon for the Class 8 tractor market. The agencies understand the
potential impact that a pull-ahead can have on American manufacturing
and labor, dealerships, truck purchasers, and on the program's
environmental and fuel savings goals, and have taken steps in the
design of the proposed program to avoid such disruption. These steps
include the following:
Providing considerable lead time, including two to three
additional years for the preferred alternative compared to Alternative
4
The standards will result in significantly lower operating
costs for vehicle owners (unlike the 2007 standard, which increased
operating costs)
Phasing in the standards
Structuring the program so the industry will have a
significant range of technology choices to be considered for
compliance, rather than the one or two new technologies the OEMs
pursued in 2007
Allowing manufacturers to use emissions averaging, banking and
trading to phase in the technology even further
We request comment on the sufficiency of the proposed Phase 2
structure, lead time, and stringency to avoid market disruptions. We
note an important difference, however, between standards for criteria
pollutants, with generally no attendant fuel savings, and the fuel
consumption/GHG emission standards proposed today, which provide
immediate and direct financial benefits to vehicle purchasers, who will
begin saving money on fuel costs as soon as they begin operating the
vehicles. It would seem logical, therefore, that vehicle purchasers
(and manufacturers) would weigh those significant fuel savings against
the potential for increased costs that could result from applying fuel-
saving technologies sooner than they might otherwise choose in the
absence of the standards.
As discussed in the Phase 1 final rule, NHTSA has certain statutory
considerations to take into account when determining feasibility of the
preferred alternative.\50\ The Energy Independence and Security Act
(EISA) states that NHTSA (in consultation with EPA and the Secretary of
Energy) shall develop a commercial medium- and heavy-duty fuel
efficiency program designed ``to achieve the maximum feasible
improvement.'' \51\ Although there is no definition of maximum feasible
standards in EISA, NHTSA is directed to consider three factors when
determining what the maximum feasible standards are. Those factors are,
appropriateness, cost-effectiveness, and technological feasibility,\52\
which modify ``feasible'' beyond its plain meaning.
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\50\ 75 FR 57198.
\51\ 49 U.S.C. 32902(k).
\52\ Id.
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NHTSA has the broad discretion to weigh and balance the
aforementioned factors in order to accomplish EISA's mandate of
determining maximum feasible standards. The fact that the factors may
often be at odds gives NHTSA significant discretion to decide what
weight to give each of the competing factors, policies and concerns and
then determine how to balance them--as long as NHTSA's balancing does
not undermine the fundamental purpose of the EISA: Energy conservation,
and as long as that balancing reasonably accommodates ``conflicting
policies that were committed to the agency's care by the statute.''
\53\
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\53\ Center for Biological Diversity v. National Highway Traffic
Safety Admin., 538 F.3d 1172, 1195 (9th Cir. 2008).
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EPA also has significant discretion in assessing, weighing, and
balancing the relevant statutory criteria. Section 202(a)(2) of the
Clean Air Act requires that the standards ``take effect after such
period as the Administrator finds necessary to permit the development
and application of the requisite technology, giving appropriate
consideration to the cost of compliance within such period.'' This
language affords EPA considerable discretion in how to weight the
critical statutory factors of emission reductions, cost, and lead time
(76 FR 57129-57130). Section 202(a) also allows (although it does not
compel) EPA to adopt technology-forcing standards. Id. at 57130.
Giving due consideration to the agencies' respective statutory
criteria discussed above, the agencies are proposing these technology-
forcing standards for MY 2027. The agencies nevertheless recognize that
there is some uncertainty in projecting costs and effectiveness,
especially for those technologies not yet widely available, but believe
that the thresholds proposed for consideration account for realistic
projections of technological development discussed throughout this
notice and in the draft RIA. The agencies are requesting comment on the
alternatives described in Section X below. These alternatives range
from Alternative 1 (which is a no-action alternative that serves as the
baseline for our cost and benefit analyses) to Alternative 5 (which
includes the most stringent of the alternative standards analyzed by
the agencies). The assessment of these different alternatives considers
the importance of allowing manufacturers sufficient flexibility and
discretion while achieving meaningful fuel consumption and GHG
emissions reductions across vehicle types. The agencies look forward to
receiving comments on questions of feasibility and long-term
projections of costs and effectiveness.
As discussed throughout this document, the agencies believe
Alternative 4 has potential to be the maximum feasible alternative,
however, based on the evidence currently before us, the agencies have
outstanding questions regarding relative risks and
[[Page 40156]]
benefits of that option in the timeframe envisioned. We are seeking
comment on these relative risks and benefits. Alternative 3 is
generally designed to achieve the vehicle levels of fuel consumption
and GHG reduction that Alternative 4 would achieve, but with two to
three years of additional lead-time--i.e., the Alternative 3 standards
would end up in the same place as the Alternative 4 standards, but two
to three years later, meaning that manufacturers could, in theory,
apply new technology at a more gradual pace and with greater
flexibility as discussed above. However, Alternative 4 would lead to
earlier and greater cumulative fuel savings and greenhouse gas
reductions.
In the sections that follow, the agencies have closely examined the
potential feasibility of Alternative 4 for each subcategory. The
agencies may consider establishing final fuel efficiency and GHG
standards in whole or in part in the Alternative 4 timeframe if we deem
them to be maximum feasible and reasonable for NHTSA and EPA,
respectively. The agencies seek comment on the feasibility of
Alternative 4, whether for some or for all segments, including
empirical data on its appropriateness, cost-effectiveness, and
technological feasibility. The agencies also note the possibility of
adoption in MY 2024 of a standard reflecting deployment of some, rather
than all, of the technologies on which Alternative 4 is predicated. It
is also possible that the agencies could adopt some or all of the
proposal (Alternative 3) earlier than MY 2027, but later than MY 2024,
based especially on lead time considerations. Any such choices would
involve a considered weighing of the issues of feasibility of projected
technology penetration rates, associated costs, and necessary lead
time, and would consider the information on available technologies,
their level of performance and costs set out in the administrative
record to this proposal.
Sections II through VI of this notice explain the consideration
that the agencies took into account in considering options and
proposing a preferred alternative based on balancing of the statutory
factors under 42 U.S.C. 7521(a)(1) and (2), and under 49 U.S.C.
32902(k).
(1) Carryover From Phase 1 Program and Proposed Compliance Changes
Phase 2 will carry over many of the compliance approaches developed
for Phase 1, with certain changes as described below. Readers are
referred to the proposed regulatory text for much more detail. Note
that some of these provisions are being carried over with revisions or
additions (such as those needed to address trailers).
(a) Certification
EPA and NHTSA are proposing to apply the same general certification
procedures for Phase 2 as are currently being used for certifying to
the Phase 1 standards. The agencies, however, are proposing changes to
the simulation tool used for the vocational vehicle, tractor and
trailer standards that would allow the simulation tool to more
specifically reflect improvements to transmissions and drivetrains.\54\
Rather than the model using default values for transmissions and
drivetrains, manufacturers would enter measured or tested values as
inputs reflecting performance of their actual transmission and
drivetrain technologies.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\54\ As described in Section IV, although the proposed trailer
standards were developed using the simulation tool, the agencies are
proposing a compliance structure that does not require trailer
manufacturers to actually use the compliance tool.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
The agencies apply essentially the same process for certifying
tractors and vocational vehicles, and propose largely to apply it to
trailers as well. The Phase 1 certification process for engines used in
tractors and vocational vehicles was based on EPA's process for showing
compliance with the heavy-duty engine criteria pollutant standards, and
the agencies propose to continue it for Phase 2. Finally, we also
propose to continue certifying HD pickups and vans using the Phase 1
vehicle certification process, which is very similar to the light-duty
vehicle certification process.
EPA and NHTSA are also proposing to clarify provisions related to
confirming a manufacturer's test data during certification (i.e.,
confirmatory testing) and verifying a manufacturer's vehicles are being
produced to perform as described in the application for certification
(i.e., selective enforcement audits or SEAs). The EPA confirmatory
testing provisions for engines and vehicles are in 40 CFR 1036.235 and
1037.235. The SEA provisions are in 40 CFR 1036.301 and 1037.301. The
NHTSA provisions are in 49 CFR 535.9(a). Note that these clarifications
would also apply for Phase 1 engines and vehicles. The agencies welcome
suggestions for alternative approaches that would offer the same degree
of compliance assurance for GHGs and fuel consumption as these programs
offer with respect to EPA's criteria pollutants.
(b) Averaging, Banking and Trading (ABT)
The Phase 1 ABT provisions were patterned on established EPA ABT
programs that have proven to work well. In Phase 1, the agencies
determined this flexibility would provide an opportunity for
manufacturers to make necessary technological improvements and reduce
the overall cost of the program without compromising overall
environmental and fuel economy objectives. We propose to generally
continue this Phase 1 approach with few revisions for vehicles
regulated in Phase 1. As described in Section IV, we are proposing a
more limited averaging program for trailers. The agencies see the ABT
program as playing an important role in making the proposed technology-
advancing standards feasible, by helping to address many issues of
technological challenges in the context of lead time and costs. It
provides manufacturers flexibilities that assist the efficient
development and implementation of new technologies and therefore enable
new technologies to be implemented at a more aggressive pace than
without ABT.
ABT programs are more than just add-on provisions included to help
reduce costs, and can be, as in EPA's Title II programs generally, an
integral part of the standard setting itself. A well-designed ABT
program can also provide important environmental and energy security
benefits by increasing the speed at which new technologies can be
implemented (which means that more benefits accrue over time than with
later-commencing standards) and at the same time increase flexibility
for, and reduce costs to, the regulated industry and ultimately
consumers. Without ABT provisions (and other related flexibilities),
standards would typically have to be numerically less stringent since
the numerical standard would have to be adjusted to accommodate issues
of feasibility and available lead time. See 75 FR 25412-25413. By
offering ABT credits and additional flexibilities the agencies can
offer progressively more stringent standards that help meet our fuel
consumption reduction and GHG emission goals at a faster and more cost-
effective pace.\55\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\55\ See NRDC v. Thomas, 805 F. 2d 410, 425 (D.C. Cir. 1986)
(upholding averaging as a reasonable and permissible means of
implementing a statutory provision requiring technology-forcing
standards).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
(i) Carryover of Phase 1 Credits and Credit Life
The agencies propose to continue the five-year credit life
provisions from Phase 1, and are not proposing any
[[Page 40157]]
additional restriction on the use of banked Phase 1 credits in Phase 2.
In other words, Phase 1 credits in MY2019 could be used in Phase 1 or
in Phase 2 in MYs 2021-2024. Although, as we have already noted, the
numerical values of proposed Phase 2 standards are not directly
comparable in an absolute sense to the existing Phase 1 standards (in
other words, a given vehicle would have a different g/ton-mile emission
rate when evaluated using Phase 1 GEM than it would when evaluated
using Phase 2 GEM), we believe that the Phase 1 and Phase 2 credits are
largely equivalent. Because the standards and emission levels are
included in a relative sense (as a difference), it is not necessary for
the Phase 1 and Phase 2 standards to be directly equivalent in an
absolute sense in order for the credits to be equivalent.
This is best understood by examining the way in which credits are
calculated. For example, the credit equations in 40 CFR 1037.705 and 49
CFR 535.7 calculate credits as the product of the difference between
the standard and the vehicle's emission level (g/ton-mile or gallon/
1,000 ton-mile), the regulatory payload (tons), production volume, and
regulatory useful life (miles). Phase 2 would not change payloads,
production volumes, or useful lives for tractors, medium and heavy
heavy-duty engines, or medium and heavy heavy-duty vocational vehicles.
However, EPA is proposing to change the regulatory useful lives of HD
pickups and vans, light heavy-duty vocational vehicles, spark-ignited
engines, and light heavy-duty compression-ignition engines. Because
useful life is a factor in determining the value of a credit, the
agencies are proposing interim adjustment factors to ensure banked
credits maintain their value in the transition from Phase 1 to Phase 2.
For Phase 1, EPA aligned the useful life for GHG emissions with the
useful life already in place for criteria pollutants. After the Phase 1
rules were finalized, EPA updated the useful life for criteria
pollutants as part of the Tier 3 rulemaking.\56\ The new useful life
implemented for Tier 3 is 150,000 miles or 15 years, whichever occurs
first. This is the same useful life proposed in Phase 2 for HD pickups
and vans, light heavy-duty vocational vehicles, spark-ignited engines,
and light heavy-duty compression-ignition engines.\57\ The numerical
value of the adjustment factor for each of these regulatory categories
depends on the Phase 1 useful life. These are described in detail below
in this preamble in Sections II, V, and VI. Without these adjustment
factors the proposed changes in useful life would effectively result in
a discount of banked credits that are carried forward from Phase 1 to
Phase 2, which is not the intent of the changes in the useful life.
With the relatively flat deterioration generally associated with
CO2, EPA does not believe the proposed changes in useful
life would significantly affect the feasibility of the proposed Phase 2
standards. EPA requests comments on the proposed changes to useful
life. We note that the primary purpose of allowing manufacturers to
bank credits is to provide flexibility in managing transitions to new
standards. The five-year credit life is substantial, and would allow
credits generated in either Phase 1 or early in Phase 2 to be used for
the intended purpose. The agencies believe longer credit life is not
necessary to accomplish this transition. Restrictions on credit life
serve to reduce the likelihood that any manufacturer would be able to
use banked credits to disrupt the heavy-duty vehicle market in any
given year by effectively limiting the amount of credits that can be
held. Without this limit, one manufacturer that saved enough credits
over many years could achieve a significant cost advantage by using all
the credits in a single year. The agencies believe, subject to
consideration of public comment, that allowing a five year credit life
for all credits, and as a consequence allowing use of Phase 1 credits
in Phase 2, creates appropriate flexibility and appropriately
facilitates a smooth transition to each new level of standards.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\56\ 79 FR 23492, April 28, 2014 and 40 CFR 86.1805-17.
\57\ NHTSA's useful life is based on mileage and years of
duration.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Although we are not proposing any additional restrictions on the
use of Phase 1 credits, we are requesting comment on this issue. Early
indications suggest that positive market reception to the Phase 1
technologies could lead to manufacturers accumulating credit surpluses
that could be quite large at the beginning of the proposed Phase 2
program. This appears especially likely for tractors. The agencies are
specifically requesting comment on the likelihood of this happening,
and whether any regulatory changes would be appropriate in response.
For example, should the agencies limit the amount of credits that could
be carried over from Phase1 or limit them to the first year or two of
the Phase 2 program? Also, if we determine that large surpluses are
likely, how should that factor into our decision on the feasibility of
more stringent standards in MY 2021?
(ii) Averaging Sets
EPA has historically restricted averaging to some extent for its HD
emission standards to avoid creating unfair competitive advantages or
environmental risks due to credits being inconsistent. Under Phase 1,
averaging, banking and trading can only occur within and between
specified ``averaging sets'' (with the exception of credits generated
through use of specified advanced technologies). We propose to continue
this regime in Phase 2, to retain the existing vehicle and engine
averaging sets, and create new trailer averaging sets. We also propose
to continue the averaging set restrictions from Phase 1 in Phase 2.
These averaging sets for vehicles are:
Complete pickups and vans
Other light heavy-duty vehicles (Classes 2b-5)
Medium heavy-duty vehicles (Class 6-7)
Heavy heavy-duty vehicles (Class 8)
Long dry van trailers
Short dry van trailers
Long refrigerated trailers
Short refrigerated trailers
We also propose not to allow trading between engines and chassis,
even within the same vehicle class. Such trading would essentially
result in double counting of emission credits, because the same engine
technology would likely generate credits relative to both standards. We
similarly would limit trading among engine categories to trades within
the designated averaging sets:
Spark-ignition engines
Compression-ignition light heavy-duty engines
Compression-ignition medium heavy-duty engines
Compression-ignition heavy heavy-duty engines
The agencies continue to believe that restricting trading to within
the same eight classes would provide adequate opportunities for
manufacturers to make necessary technological improvements and to
reduce the overall cost of the program without compromising overall
environmental and fuel efficiency objectives, and is therefore
appropriate and reasonable under EPA's authority and maximum feasible
under NHTSA's authority, respectively. We do not expect emissions from
engines and vehicles--when restricted by weight class--to be
dissimilar. We therefore expect that the lifetime vehicle performance
and emissions levels will be very similar across these defined
[[Page 40158]]
categories, and the estimated credit calculations will fairly ensure
the expected fuel consumption and GHG emission reductions.
We continue to believe, subject to consideration of public comment,
that the Phase 1 averaging sets create the most flexibility that is
appropriate without creating an unfair advantage for manufacturers with
erratically integrated portfolios, including engines and vehicles. See
76 FR 57240. The agencies committed in Phase 1 to seek public comment
after credit trading begins with manufacturers certifying in 2014 on
whether broader credit trading is more appropriate in developing the
next phase of HD regulations (76 FR 57128, September 15, 2011). The
2014 model year end of year reports will become available to the
agencies in mid-2015. Therefore, the agencies will provide information
at that point. We welcome comment on averaging set restrictions. The
agencies propose to continue this carry forward provision for phase 2
for the same reasons.
(iii) Credit Deficits
The Phase 1 regulations allow manufacturers to carry-forward
deficits for up to three years without penalty. This is an important
flexibility because the program is designed to address the diversity of
the heavy-duty industry by allowing manufacturers to sell a mix of
engines or vehicles that have very different emission levels and fuel
efficiencies. Under this construct, manufacturers can offset sales of
engines or vehicles not meeting the standards by selling others (within
the same averaging set) that are much better than required. However, in
any given year it is possible that the actual sales mix will not
balance out and the manufacturer may be short of credits for that model
year. The three year provision allows for this possibility and creates
additional compliance flexibility to accommodate it.
(iv) Advanced Technology Credits
At this time, the agencies believe it is no longer appropriate to
provide extra credit for the technologies identified as advanced
technologies for Phase 1, although we are requesting comment on this
issue. The Phase 1 advanced technology credits were adopted to promote
the implementation of advanced technologies, such as hybrid
powertrains, Rankine cycle engines, all-electric vehicles, and fuel
cell vehicles (see 40 CFR 1037.150(i)). As the agencies stated in the
Phase 1 final rule, the Phase 1 standards were not premised on the use
of advanced technologies but we expected these advanced technologies to
be an important part of the Phase 2 rulemaking (76 FR 57133, September
15, 2011). The proposed Phase 2 heavy-duty engine and vehicles
standards are premised on the use of some advanced technologies, making
them equivalent to other fuel-saving technologies in this context. We
believe the Phase 2 standards themselves would provide sufficient
incentive to develop them.
We request comment on this issue, especially with respect to
electric vehicle, plug-in hybrid, and fuel cell technologies. Although
the proposed standards are premised on some use of Rankine cycle
engines and hybrid powertrains, none of the proposed standards are
based on projected utilization of the use of the other advanced
technologies. (Note that the most stringent alternative is based on
some use of these technologies). Commenters are encouraged to consider
the recently adopted light-duty program, which includes temporary
incentives for these technologies.
(c) Innovative Technology and Off-Cycle Credits
The agencies propose to largely continue the Phase 1 innovative
technology program but to redesignate it as an off-cycle program for
Phase 2. In other words, beginning in MY 2021 technologies that are not
fully accounted for in the GEM simulation tool, or by compliance
dynamometer testing would be considered ``off-cycle'', including those
technologies that may no longer be considered innovative technologies.
However, we are not proposing to apply this flexibility to trailers
(which were not part of Phase 1) in order to simplify the program for
trailer manufacturers.
The agencies propose to maintain that, in order for a manufacturer
to receive credits for Phase 2, the off-cycle technology would still
need to meet the requirement that it was not in common use prior to MY
2010. Although, we have not identified specific off-cycle technologies
at this time that should be excluded, we believe it may be prudent to
continue this requirement to avoid the potential for manufacturers to
receive windfall credits for technologies that they were already using
before MY 2010. Nevertheless, the agencies seek comment on whether off-
cycle technologies in the Phase 2 program should be limited in this
way. In particular, the agencies are concerned that because the
proposed Phase 2 program would be implemented MY 2021 and may extend
beyond 2027, the agencies and manufacturers may have difficulty in the
future determining whether an off-cycle technology was in common use
prior to MY 2010. Moreover, because we have not identified a single
off-cycle technology that should be excluded by this provision at this
time, we are concerned that this approach may create an unnecessary
hindrance to the off-cycle program.
Manufacturers would be able to carry over an innovative technology
credits from Phase 1 into Phase 2, subject to the same restrictions as
other credits. Manufacturers would also be able to carry over the
improvement factor (not the credit value) of a technology, if certain
criteria were met. The agencies would require documentation for all
off-cycle requests similar to those required by EPA for its light-duty
GHG program.
Additionally, NHTSA would not grant any off-cycle credits for crash
avoidance technologies. NHTSA would also require manufacturers to
consider the safety of off-cycle technologies and would request a
safety assessment from the manufacturer for all off-cycle technologies.
The agencies seek comment on these proposed changes, as well as the
possibility of adopting aspects of the light-duty off-cycle program.
(d) Alternative Fuels
The agencies are proposing to largely continue the Phase 1 approach
for engines and vehicles fueled by fuels other than gasoline and
diesel.\58\ Phase 1 engine emission standards applied uniquely for
gasoline-fueled and diesel-fueled engines. The regulations in 40 CFR
part 86 implement these distinctions for alternative fuels by dividing
engines into Otto-cycle and Diesel-cycle technologies based on the
combustion cycle of the engine. The agencies are, however, proposing a
small change that is described in Section II. Under the proposed
change, we would require manufacturers to divide their natural gas
engines into primary intended service classes, like the current
requirement for compression-ignition engines. Any alternative fuel-
engine qualifying as a medium heavy-duty engine or a heavy heavy-duty
engine would be subject to all the emission standards and other
requirements that apply to compression-ignition engines. Note that this
small change in approach would also apply with respect to EPA's
criteria pollutant program.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\58\ See Section I. F. (1) (a) for a summary of certain specific
changes we are proposing or considering for natural gas-fueled
engines and vehicles.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
We are also proposing that the Phase 2 standards apply exclusively
at the
[[Page 40159]]
vehicle tailpipe. That is, compliance is based on vehicle fuel
consumption and GHG emission reductions, and does not reflect any so-
called lifecycle emission properties. The agencies have explained why
it is reasonable that the heavy duty standards be fuel neutral in this
manner. See 76 FR 57123; see also 77 FR 51705 (August 24, 2012) and 77
FR 51500 (August 27, 2012). In particular, EPA notes that there is a
separate, statutorily-mandated program under the Clean Air Act which
encourages use of renewable fuels in transportation fuels, including
renewable fuel used in heavy-duty diesel engines. This program
considers lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions compared to petroleum
fuel. NHTSA notes that the fuel efficiency standards are necessarily
tailpipe-based, and that a lifecycle approach would likely render it
impossible to harmonize the fuel efficiency and GHG emission standards,
to the great detriment of our goal of achieving a coordinated program.
77 FR 51500-51501; see also 77 FR 51705 (similar finding by EPA); see
also section I.F. (1) (a) below.
One consequence of the tailpipe-based approach is that the agencies
are proposing to treat vehicles powered by electricity the same as in
Phase 1. In Phase 1, EPA treated all electric vehicles as having zero
emissions of CO2, CH4, and N2O (see 40
CFR 1037.150(f)). Similarly, NHTSA adopted regulations in Phase 1 that
set the fuel consumption standards based on the fuel consumed by the
vehicle. The agencies also did not require emission testing for
electric vehicles in Phase 1. The agencies considered the potential
unintended consequence of not accounting for upstream emissions from
the charging of heavy-duty electric vehicles. In our reassessment for
Phase 2, we have not found any all-electric heavy-duty vehicles that
have certified by 2014. As we look to the future, we project very
limited adoption of all-electric vehicles into the market. Therefore,
we believe that this provision is still appropriate. Unlike the 2017-
2025 light-duty rule, which included a cap whereby upstream emissions
would be counted after a certain volume of sales (see 77 FR 62816-
62822), we believe there is no need to propose a cap for heavy-duty
vehicles because of the small likelihood of significant production of
EV technologies in the Phase 2 timeframe. We welcome comments on this
approach.\59\ Note that we also request comment on upstream emissions
for natural gas in Section XI.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\59\ See also Section I. C. (1) (b)(iv) above (soliciting
comment on need for advanced technology incentive credits for heavy
duty EVs).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
(e) Phase 1 Interim Provisions
EPA adopted several flexibilities for the Phase 1 program (40 CFR
1036.150 and 1037.150) as interim provisions. Because the existing
regulations do not have an end date for Phase 1, most of these
provisions did not have an explicit end date. NHTSA adopted similar
provisions. With few exceptions, the agencies are proposing not to
apply these provisions to Phase 2. These will generally remain in
effect for the Phase 1 program. In particular, the agencies note that
we do not propose to continue the blanket exemption for small
manufacturers. Instead, the agencies propose to adopt narrower and more
targeted relief.
(f) In-Use Standards
Section 202(a)(1) of the CAA specifies that EPA is to adopt
emissions standards that are applicable for the useful life of the
vehicle and for the engine. EPA finalized in-use standards for the
Phase 1 program whereas NHTSA adopted an approach which does not
include these standards. For the Phase 2 program, EPA will carry-over
its in-use provisions and NHTSA proposes to adopt EPA's useful life
requirements for its vehicle and engine fuel consumption standards to
ensure manufacturers consider in the design process the need for fuel
efficiency standards to apply for the same duration and mileage as EPA
standards. If EPA determines a manufacturer fails to meet its in-use
standards, civil penalties may be assessed. NHTSA seeks comment on the
appropriateness of seeking civil penalties for failure to comply with
its fuel efficiency standards in these instances. NHTSA would limit
such penalties to situations in which it determined that the vehicle or
engine manufacturer failed to comply with the standards.
(2) Proposed Phase 2 Standards
This section briefly summarizes the proposed Phase 2 standards for
each category and identifies the technologies that the agencies project
would be needed to meet the standards. Given the large number of
different regulatory categories and model years for which separate
standards are being proposed, the actual numerical standards are not
listed. Readers are referred to Sections II through IV for the tables
of proposed standards.
(a) Summary of the Proposed Engine Standards
The agencies are proposing to continue the basic Phase 1 structure
for the Phase 2 engine standards. There would be separate standards and
test cycles for tractor engines, vocational diesel engines, and
vocational gasoline engines. However, as described in Section II, we
are proposing a revised test cycle for tractor engines to better
reflect actual in-use operation.
For diesel engines, the agencies are proposing standards for MY
2027 requiring reduction in CO2 emissions and fuel
consumption of 4.2 percent better than the 2017 baseline.\60\ We are
also proposing standards for MY 2021 and MY 2024, requiring reductions
in CO2 emissions and fuel consumption of 1.5 to 3.7 percent
better than the 2017 baseline. The agencies project that these
reductions would be feasible based on technological changes that would
improve combustion and reduce energy losses. For most of these
improvements, the agencies project manufacturers will begin applying
them to about 50 percent of their heavy-duty engines by 2021, and
ultimately apply them to about 90 percent of their heavy-duty engines
by 2024. However, for some of these improvements we project more
limited application rates. In particular, we project a more limited use
of waste exhaust heat recovery systems in 2027, projecting that about
10 percent of tractor engines will have turbo-compounding systems, and
an additional 15 percent of tractor engines would employ Rankine-cycle
waste heat recovery. We do not project that turbo-compounding or
Rankine-cycle waste heat recovery technology will be utilized in
vocational engines. Although we see great potential for waste heat
recovery systems to achieve significant fuel savings and CO2
emission reductions, we are not projecting that the technology could be
available for more wide-spread use in this time frame.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\60\ Phase 1 standards for diesel engines will be fully phased-
in by MY 2017.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
For gasoline vocational engines, we are not proposing new more
stringent engine standards. Gasoline engines used in vocational
vehicles are generally the same engines as are used in the complete HD
pickups and vans in the Class 2b and 3 weight categories. Given the
relatively small sales volumes for gasoline-fueled vocational vehicles,
manufacturers typically cannot afford to invest significantly in
developing separate technology for these vocational vehicle engines.
Thus, we project that vocational gasoline engines would
[[Page 40160]]
include the same technology as would be used to meet the pickup and van
chassis standards, and this would result in some real world reductions
in CO2 emissions and fuel consumption. Although it is
difficult at this time to project how much improvement would be
observed during certification testing, it seems likely that these
improvements would reduce measured CO2 emissions and fuel
consumption by about one percent. Therefore, we are requesting comment
on finalizing a Phase 2 standard of 621 g/hp-hr for gasoline engines
(i.e., one percent more stringent than the 2016 Phase 1 standard of 627
g/hp-hr) in MY 2027. We note that the proposed MY 2027 vehicle
standards for gasoline-fueled vocational vehicles are predicated in
part on the use of advanced friction reduction technology with
effectiveness over the GEM cycles of about one percent. We also request
comment on whether not proposing more stringent standards for gasoline
engines would create an incentive for purchasers who would have
otherwise chosen a diesel vehicle to instead choose a gasoline vehicle.
Table I-2--Summary of Phase 1 and Proposed Phase 2 Requirements for Engines in Combination Tractors and
Vocational Vehicles
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Alternative 3-2027 Alternative 4-2024 (also
Phase 1 program (proposed standard) under consideration)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Covered in this category......... Engines installed in tractors and vocational chassis.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Share of HDV fuel consumption and Combination tractors and vocational vehicles account for approximately 85
GHG emissions. percent of fuel use and GHG emissions in the medium and heavy duty truck
sector.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Per vehicle fuel consumption and 5%-9% improvement over MY 4% improvement over MY 2017 for diesel engines.
CO2 improvement. 2010 baseline, depending Note that improvements are captured in complete
vehicle application. vehicle tractor and vocational vehicle standards,
Improvements are in so that engine improvements and the vehicle
addition to improvements improvement shown below are not additive.
from tractor and
vocational vehicle
standards.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Form of the standard............. EPA: CO2 grams/horsepower-hour and NHTSA: Gallons of fuel/horsepower-hour.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Example technology options Combustion, air handling, Further technology improvements and increased use
available to help manufacturers friction and emissions of all Phase 1 technologies, plus waste heat
meet standards. after-treatment recovery systems for tractor engines (e.g., turbo-
technology improvements. compound and Rankine-cycle).
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Flexibilities.................... ABT program which allows Same as Phase 1, except no advanced technology
emissions and fuel incentives.
consumption credits to Adjustment factor of 1.36 proposed for credits
be averaged, banked, or carried forward from Phase 1 to Phase 2 for SI
traded (five year credit and LHD CI engines due to proposed change in
life). Manufacturers useful life.
allowed to carry-forward
credit deficits for up
to three model years.
Interim incentives for
advanced technologies,
recognition of
innovative (off-cycle)
technologies not
accounted for by the HD
Phase 1 test procedures,
and credits for
certifying early.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(b) Summary of the Proposed Tractor Standards
As explained in Section III, the agencies are proposing to largely
continue the Phase 1 tractor program but to propose new standards. The
tractor standards proposed for MY 2027 would achieve up to 24 percent
lower CO2 emissions and fuel consumption than a 2017 model
year Phase 1 tractor. The agencies project that the proposed 2027
tractor standards could be met through improvements in the:
Engine \61\ (including some use of waste heat recovery
systems)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\61\ Although the agencies are proposing separate engine
standards and separate engine certification, engine improvements
would also be reflected in the vehicle certification process. Thus,
it is appropriate to also consider engine improvements in the
context of the vehicle standards.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Transmission
Driveline
Aerodynamic design
Tire rolling resistance
Idle performance
Other accessories of the tractor.
The agencies' evaluation shows that some of these technologies are
available today, but have very low adoption rates on current vehicles,
while others will require some lead time for development. The agencies
are proposing to enhance the GEM vehicle simulation tool to recognize
these technologies, as described in Section II.C.
We have also determined that there is sufficient lead time to
introduce many of these tractor and engine technologies into the fleet
at a reasonable cost starting in the 2021 model year. The proposed 2021
model year standards for combination tractors and engines would achieve
up to 13 percent lower CO2 emissions and fuel consumption
than a 2017 model year Phase 1 tractor, and the 2024 model year
standards would achieve up to 20 percent lower CO2 emissions
and fuel consumption.
[[Page 40161]]
Table I-3--Summary of Phase 1 and Proposed Phase 2 Requirements for Class 7 and Class 8 Combination Tractors
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Alternative 4--2024
Phase 1 program Alternative 3--2027 (also under
(proposed standard) consideration)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Covered in this category......... Tractors that are designed to pull trailers and move freight.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Share of HDV fuel consumption and Combination tractors and their engines account for approximately two thirds
GHG emissions. of fuel use and GHG emissions in the medium and heavy duty truck sector.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Per vehicle fuel consumption and 10%-23% improvement over 18%-24% improvement over MY 2017 standards.
CO2 improvement. MY 2010 baseline,
depending on tractor
category. Improvements
are in addition to
improvements from engine
standards.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Form of the standard............. EPA: CO2 grams/ton payload mile and NHTSA: Gallons of fuel/1,000 ton payload
mile.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Example technology options Aerodynamic drag Further technology improvements and increased use
available to help manufacturers improvements; low of all Phase 1 technologies, plus engine
meet standards. rolling resistance improvements, improved and automated
tires; high strength transmissions and axles, powertrain optimization,
steel and aluminum tire inflation systems, and predictive cruise
weight reduction; control (depending on tractor type).
extended idle reduction;
and speed limiters.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Flexibilities.................... ABT program which allows Same as Phase 1, except no extra credits for
emissions and fuel advanced technologies or early certification.
consumption credits to
be averaged, banked, or
traded (five year credit
life). Manufacturers
allowed to carry-forward
credit deficits for up
to three model years.
Interim incentives for
advanced technologies,
recognition of
innovative (off-cycle)
technologies not
accounted for by the HD
Phase 1 test procedures,
and credits for
certifying early.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(c) Summary of the Proposed Trailer Standards
This proposed rule is a set of GHG emission and fuel consumption
standards for manufacturers of new trailers that are used in
combination with tractors that would significantly reduce
CO2 and fuel consumption from combination tractor-trailers
nationwide over a period of several years. As described in Section IV,
there are numerous aerodynamic and tire technologies available to
manufacturers to accomplish these proposed standards. For the most
part, these technologies have already been introduced into the market
to some extent through EPA's voluntary SmartWay program. However,
adoption is still somewhat limited.
The agencies are proposing incremental levels of Phase 2 standards
that would apply beginning in MY 2018 and be fully phased-in by 2027.
These standards are predicated on use of aerodynamic and tire
improvements, with trailer OEMs making incrementally greater
improvements in MYs 2021 and 2024 as standard stringency increases in
each of those model years. EPA's GHG emission standards would be
mandatory beginning in MY 2018, while NHTSA's fuel consumption
standards would be voluntary beginning in MY 2018, and be mandatory
beginning in MY 2021.
As described in Section XV.D and Chapter 12 of the draft RIA, the
agencies are proposing special provisions to minimize the impacts on
small trailer manufacturers. These provisions have been informed by and
are largely consistent with recommendations coming from the SBAR Panel
that EPA conducted pursuant to Section 609(b) of the Regulatory
Flexibility Act (RFA). Broadly, these provisions provide additional
lead time for small manufacturers, as well as simplified testing and
compliance requirements. The agencies are also requesting comment on
whether there is a need for additional provisions to address small
business issues.
Table I-4--Summary of Proposed Phase 2 Requirements for Trailers
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Alternative 4--2024
Phase 1 program Alternative 3--2027 (also under
(proposed standard) consideration)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Covered in this category......... Trailers hauled by low, mid, and high roof day and sleeper cab tractors,
except those qualified as logging, mining, stationary or heavy-haul.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Share of HDV fuel consumption and Trailers are modeled together with combination tractors and their engines.
GHG emissions. Together, they account for approximately two thirds of fuel use and GHG
emissions in the medium and heavy duty truck sector.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Per vehicle fuel consumption and N/A...................... Between 3% and 8% improvement over MY 2017
CO2 improvement. baseline, depending on the trailer type.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
[[Page 40162]]
Form of the standard............. N/A...................... EPA: CO2 grams/ton payload mile and NHTSA: Gallons/
1,000 ton payload mile.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Example technology options N/A...................... Low rolling resistance tires, automatic tire
available to help manufacturers inflation systems, weight reduction for most
meet standards. trailers, aerodynamic improvements such as side
and rear fairings, gap closing devices, and
undercarriage treatment for box-type trailers
(e.g., dry and refrigerated vans).
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Flexibilities.................... N/A...................... One year delay in implementation for small
businesses, trailer manufacturers may use pre-
approved devices to avoid testing, averaging
program for manufacturers of dry and refrigerated
box trailers.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(d) Summary of the Proposed Vocational Vehicle Standards
As explained in Section V, the agencies are proposing to revise the
Phase 1 vocational vehicle program and to propose new standards. These
proposed standards also reflect further sub-categorization from Phase
1, with separate proposed standards based on mode of operation: Urban,
regional, and multi-purpose. The agencies are also proposing
alternative standards for emergency vehicles.
The agencies project that the proposed vocational vehicle standards
could be met through improvements in the engine, transmission,
driveline, lower rolling resistance tires, workday idle reduction
technologies, and weight reduction, plus some application of hybrid
technology. These are described in Section V of this preamble and in
Chapter 2.9 of the draft RIA. These MY 2027 standards would achieve up
to 16 percent lower CO2 emissions and fuel consumption than
MY 2017 Phase 1 standards. The agencies are also proposing revisions to
the compliance regime for vocational vehicles. These include: The
addition of an idle cycle that would be weighted along with the other
drive cycles; and revisions to the vehicle simulation tool to reflect
specific improvements to the engine, transmission, and driveline.
Similar to the tractor program, we have determined that there is
sufficient lead time to introduce many of these new technologies into
the fleet starting in MY 2021. Therefore, we are proposing new
standards for MY 2021 and 2024. Based on our analysis, the MY 2021
standards for vocational vehicles would achieve up to 7 percent lower
CO2 emissions and fuel consumption than a MY 2017 Phase 1
vehicle, on average, and the MY 2024 standards would achieve up to 11
percent lower CO2 emissions and fuel consumption.
In Phase 1, EPA adopted air conditioning (A/C) refrigerant leakage
standards for tractors, as well as for heavy-duty pickups and vans, but
not for vocational vehicles. For Phase 2, EPA believes that it would be
feasible to apply similar A/C refrigerant leakage standards for
vocational vehicles, beginning with the 2021 model year. The process
for certifying that low leakage components are used would follow the
system currently in place for comparable systems in tractors.
Table I-5--Summary of Phase 1 and Proposed Phase 2 Requirements for Vocational Vehicle Chassis
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Alternative 4--2024
Phase 1 program Alternative 3--2027 (also under
(proposed standard) consideration)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Covered in this category......... Class 2b-8 chassis that are intended for vocational services such as delivery
vehicles, emergency vehicles, dump truck, tow trucks, cement mixer, refuse
trucks, etc., except those qualified as off-highway vehicles.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Because of sector diversity, vocational vehicle chassis are segmented into
Light, Medium and Heavy Duty vehicle categories and for Phase 2 each of
these segments are further subdivided using three duty cycles: Regional,
Multi-purpose, and Urban.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Share of HDV fuel consumption and Vocational vehicles account for approximately 20 percent of fuel use and GHG
GHG emissions. emissions in the medium and heavy duty truck sector categories.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Per vehicle fuel consumption and 2% improvement over MY Up to 16% improvement over MY 2017 standards.
CO2 improvement. 2010 baseline.
Improvements are in
addition to improvements
from engine standards.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Form of the standard............. EPA: CO2 grams/ton payload mile and NHTSA: Gallons of fuel/1,000 ton payload
mile.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Example technology options Low rolling resistance Further technology improvements and increased use
available to help manufacturers tires. of Phase 1 technologies, plus improved engines,
meet standards. transmissions and axles, powertrain optimization,
weight reduction, hybrids, and workday idle
reduction systems.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
[[Page 40163]]
Flexibilities.................... ABT program which allows Same as Phase 1, except no advanced technology
emissions and fuel incentives.
consumption credits to
be averaged, banked, or
traded (five year credit
life). Manufacturers
allowed to carry-forward
credit deficits for up
to three model years.
Interim incentives for
advanced technologies,
recognition of
innovative (off-cycle)
technologies not
accounted for by the HD
Phase 1 test procedures,
and credits for
certifying early.
......................... Chassis intended for emergency vehicles have
proposed Phase 2 standards based only on Phase 1
technologies, and may continue to certify using a
simplified Phase 1-style GEM tool. Adjustment
factor of 1.36 proposed for credits carried
forward from Phase 1 to Phase 2 due to proposed
change in useful life.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(e) Summary of the Proposed Heavy-Duty Pickup and Van Standards
The agencies are proposing to adopt new Phase 2 GHG emission and
fuel consumption standards for heavy-duty pickups and vans that would
be applied in largely the same manner as the Phase 1 standards. These
standards are based on the extensive use of most known and proven
technologies, and could result in some use of strong hybrid powertrain
technology. These proposed standards would commence in MY 2021.
Overall, the proposed standards are 16 percent more stringent by 2027.
Table I-6--Summary of Phase 1 and Proposed Phase 2 Requirements for HD Pickups and Vans
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Alternative 4--2025
Phase 1 program Alternative 3--2027 (also under
(proposed standard) consideration)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Covered in this category......... Class 2b and 3 complete pickup trucks and vans, including all work vans and
15-passenger vans but excluding 12-passenger vans which are subject to light-
duty standards.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Share of HDV fuel consumption and HD pickups and vans account for approximately 15% of fuel use and GHG
GHG emissions. emissions in the medium and heavy duty truck sector.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Per vehicle fuel consumption and 15% improvement over MY 16% improvement over MY 2018-2020 standards.
CO2 improvement. 2010 baseline for diesel
vehicles, and 10%
improvement for gasoline
vehicles.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Form of the standard............. Phase 1 standards are based upon a ``work factor'' attribute that combines
truck payload and towing capabilities, with an added adjustment for 4-wheel
drive vehicles. There are separate target curves for diesel-powered and
gasoline-powered vehicles. As proposed, the Phase 2 standards would be based
on the same approach.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Example technology options Engine improvements, Further technology improvements and increased use
available to help manufacturers transmission of all Phase 1 technologies, plus engine stop-
meet standards. improvements, start, and powertrain hybridization (mild and
aerodynamic drag strong).
improvements, low
rolling resistance
tires, weight reduction,
and improved accessories.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
[[Page 40164]]
Flexibilities.................... Two optional phase-in Proposed to be same as Phase 1, with phase-in
schedules; ABT program schedule based on year-over-year increase in
which allows emissions stringency. Adjustment factor of 1.25 proposed
and fuel consumption for credits carried forward from Phase 1 to Phase
credits to be averaged, 2 due to proposed change in useful life. Proposed
banked, or traded (five cessation of advanced technology incentives in
year credit life). 2021 and continuation of off-cycle credits.
Manufacturers allowed to
carry-forward credit
deficits for up to three
model years. Interim
incentives for advanced
technologies,
recognition of
innovative (off-cycle)
technologies not
accounted for by the HD
Phase 1 test procedures,
and credits for
certifying early.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(f) Summary of the Proposed Final Numeric Standards by Regulatory
Subcategory
Table I-7 lists the proposed final (i.e., MY 2027) numeric
standards by regulatory subcategory for tractors, trailers, vocational
vehicles and engines. Note that these are the same final numeric
standards for Alternative 4, but for Alternative 4 these would be
implemented in MY 2024 instead of MY 2027.
Table I-7--Proposed Final (MY 2027) Numeric Standards by Regulatory Subcategory
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CO2 grams per ton-mile Fuel consumption gallon
(for engines CO2 grams per 1,000 ton-mile (for
Regulatory subcategory per brake horsepower- engines gallons per 100
hour) brake horsepower-hour)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tractors:.....................................................
Class 7 Low Roof Day Cab.................................. 87 8.5462
Class 7 Mid Roof Day Cab.................................. 96 9.4303
Class 7 High Roof Day Cab................................. 96 9.4303
Class 8 Low Roof Day Cab.................................. 70 6.8762
Class 8 Mid Roof Day Cab.................................. 76 7.4656
Class 8 High Roof Day Cab................................. 76 7.4656
Class 8 Low Roof Sleeper Cab.............................. 62 6.0904
Class 8 Mid Roof Sleeper Cab.............................. 69 6.7780
Class 8 High Roof Sleeper Cab............................. 67 6.5815
Trailers:
Long Dry Box Trailer...................................... 77 7.5639
Short Dry Box Trailer..................................... 140 13.7525
Long Refrigerated Box Trailer............................. 80 7.8585
Short Refrigerated Box Trailer............................ 144 14.1454
Vocational Diesel:
LHD Urban................................................. 272 26.7191
LHD Multi-Purpose......................................... 280 27.5049
LHD Regional.............................................. 292 28.6837
MHD Urban................................................. 172 16.8959
MHD Multi-Purpose......................................... 174 17.0923
MHD Regional.............................................. 170 16.6994
HHD Urban................................................. 182 17.8782
HHD Multi-Purpose......................................... 183 17.9764
HHD Regional.............................................. 174 17.0923
Vocational Gasoline:
LHD Urban................................................. 299 33.6446
LHD Multi-Purpose......................................... 308 34.6574
LHD Regional.............................................. 321 36.1202
MHD Urban................................................. 189 21.2670
MHD Multi-Purpose......................................... 191 21.4921
MHD Regional.............................................. 187 21.0420
HHD Urban................................................. 196 22.0547
HHD Multi-Purpose......................................... 198 22.2797
HHD Regional.............................................. 188 21.1545
Diesel Engines:
LHD Vocational............................................ 553 5.4322
MHD Vocational............................................ 553 5.4322
HHD Vocational............................................ 533 5.2358
MHD Tractor............................................... 466 4.5776
[[Page 40165]]
HHD Tractor............................................... 441 4.3320
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Similar to Phase 1 the agencies are proposing for Phase 2 a set of
continuous equation-based standards for HD pickups and vans. Please
refer to Section 6, subsection B.1, for a description of these
standards, including associated tables and figures.
D. Summary of the Costs and Benefits of the Proposed Rule
This section summarizes the projected costs and benefits of the
proposed NHTSA fuel consumption and EPA GHG emission standards, along
with those of Alternative 4. These projections helped to inform the
agencies' choices among the alternatives considered, along with other
relevant factors, and NHTSA's Draft Environmental Impact Statement
(DEIS). See Sections VII through IX and the Draft RIA for additional
details about these projections.
For this rule, the agencies conducted coordinated and complementary
analyses using two analytical methods for the heavy-duty pickup and van
segment by employing both DOT's CAFE model and EPA's MOVES model. The
agencies used EPA's MOVES model to estimate fuel consumption and
emissions impacts for tractor-trailers (including the engine that
powers the tractor), and vocational vehicles (including the engine that
powers the vehicle). Additional calculations were performed to
determine corresponding monetized program costs and benefits. For
heavy-duty pickups and vans, the agencies performed complementary
analyses, which we refer to as ``Method A'' and ``Method B.'' In Method
A, the CAFE model was used to project a pathway the industry could use
to comply with each regulatory alternative and the estimated effects on
fuel consumption, emissions, benefits and costs. In Method B, the CAFE
model was used to project a pathway the industry could use to comply
with each regulatory alternative, along with resultant impacts on per
vehicle costs, and the MOVES model was used to calculate corresponding
changes in total fuel consumption and annual emissions. Additional
calculations were performed to determine corresponding monetized
program costs and benefits. NHTSA considered Method A as its central
analysis and Method B as a supplemental analysis. EPA considered the
results of both methods. The agencies concluded that both methods led
the agencies to the same conclusions and the same selection of the
proposed standards. See Section VII for additional discussion of these
two methods.
(1) Reference Case Against Which Costs and Benefits Are Calculated
The No Action Alternative for today's analysis, alternatively
referred to as the ``baseline'' or ``reference case,'' assumes that the
agencies would not issue new rules regarding MD/HD fuel efficiency and
GHG emissions. This is the baseline against which costs and benefits
for the proposed standards are calculated. The reference case assumes
that model year 2018 standards would be extended indefinitely and
without change.
The agencies recognize that if the proposed rule is not adopted,
manufacturers will continue to introduce new heavy-duty vehicles in a
competitive market that responds to a range of factors. Thus
manufacturers might have continued to improve technologies to reduce
heavy-duty vehicle fuel consumption. Thus, as described in Section VII,
both agencies fully analyzed the proposed standards and the regulatory
alternatives against two reference cases. The first case uses a
baseline that projects very little improvement in new vehicles in the
absence of new Phase 2 standards, and the second uses a more dynamic
baseline that projects more significant improvements in vehicle fuel
efficiency. NHTSA considered its primary analysis to be based on the
more dynamic baseline, where certain cost-effective technologies are
assumed to be applied by manufacturers to improve fuel efficiency
beyond the Phase 1 requirements in the absence of new Phase 2
standards. EPA considered both reference cases. The results for all of
the regulatory alternatives relative to both reference cases, derived
via the same methodologies discussed in this section, are presented in
Section X of the preamble.
The agencies chose to analyze these two different baselines because
the agencies recognize that there are a number of factors that create
uncertainty in projecting a baseline against which to compare the
future effects of the proposed action and the remaining alternatives.
The composition of the future fleet--such as the relative position of
individual manufacturers and the mix of products they each offer--
cannot be predicted with certainty at this time. Additionally, the
heavy-duty vehicle market is diverse, as is the range of vehicle
purchasers. Heavy-duty vehicle manufacturers have reported that their
customers' purchasing decisions are influenced by their customers' own
determinations of minimum total cost of ownership, which can be unique
to a particular customer's circumstances. For example, some customers
(e.g., less-than-truckload or package delivery operators) operate their
vehicles within a limited geographic region and typically own their own
vehicle maintenance and repair centers within that region. These
operators tend to own their vehicles for long time periods, and
sometimes for the entire service life of the vehicle. Their total cost
of ownership is influenced by their ability to better control their own
maintenance costs, and thus they can afford to consider fuel efficiency
technologies that have longer payback periods, outside of the vehicle
manufacturer's warranty period. Other customers (e.g. truckload or
long-haul operators) tend to operate cross-country, and thus must
depend upon truck dealer service centers for repair and maintenance.
Some of these customers tend to own their vehicles for about four to
seven years, so that they typically do not have to pay for repair and
maintenance costs outside of either the manufacturer's warranty period
or some other extended warranty period. Many of these customers tend to
require seeing evidence of fuel efficiency technology payback periods
on the order of 18 to 24 months before seriously considering evaluating
a new technology for potential adoption within their fleet (NAS 2010,
Roeth et al. 2013, Klemick et al. 2014). Purchasers of HD pickups and
vans wanting better fuel efficiency tend to demand that fuel
consumption improvements pay back within approximately one to three
years, but some HD pickup and van owners accrue
[[Page 40166]]
relatively few vehicle miles traveled per year, such that they may be
less likely to adopt new fuel efficiency technologies, while other
owners who use their vehicle(s) with greater intensity may be even more
willing to pay for fuel efficiency improvements. Regardless of the type
of customer, their determination of minimum total cost of ownership
involves the customer balancing their own unique circumstances with a
heavy-duty vehicle's initial purchase price, availability of credit and
lease options, expectations of vehicle reliability, resale value and
fuel efficiency technology payback periods. The degree of the incentive
to adopt additional fuel efficiency technologies also depends on
customer expectations of future fuel prices, which directly impacts
customer payback periods. Purchasing decisions are not based
exclusively on payback period, but also include the considerations
discussed above and in Section X.A.1. For the baseline analysis, the
agencies use payback period as a proxy for all of these considerations,
and therefore the payback period for the baseline analysis is shorter
than the payback period industry uses as a threshold for the further
consideration of a technology. The agencies request comment on which
alternative baseline scenarios would be most appropriate for analysis
in the final rule. Specifically, the agencies request empirical
evidence to support whether the agencies should use for the final rule
the central cases used in this proposal, alternative sensitivity cases
such as those mentioned below, or some other scenarios. See Section
X.A.1of this Preamble and Chapter 11 of the draft RIA for a more
detailed discussion of baselines.
As part of a sensitivity analysis, additional baseline scenarios
were also evaluated for HD pickups and vans, including baseline payback
periods of 12, 18 and 24 months. See Section VI of this Preamble and
Chapter 10 of the draft RIA for a detailed discussion of these
additional scenarios.
(2) Costs and Benefits Projected for the Standards Being Proposed and
Alternative 4
The tables below summarize the benefits and costs for the program
in two ways: First, from the perspective of a program designed to
improve the Nation's energy security and to conserve energy by
improving fuel efficiency and then from the perspective of a program
designed to reduce GHG emissions. The individual categories of benefits
and costs presented in the tables below are defined more fully and
presented in more detail in Chapter 8 of the draft RIA.
Table I-8 shows benefits and costs for the proposed standards and
Alternative 4 from the perspective of a program designed to improve the
Nation's energy security and conserve energy by improving fuel
efficiency. From this viewpoint, technology costs occur when the
vehicle is purchased. Fuel savings are counted as benefits that occur
over the lifetimes of the vehicles produced during the model years
subject to the Phase 2 standards as they consume less fuel.
Table I-8--Lifetime Fuel Savings, GHG Reductions, Benefits, Costs and Net Benefits for Model Years 2018-2029
Vehicles Using Analysis Method A
[Billions of 2012$] \a\ \b\
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Alternative
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Category 3 Preferred 4
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
7% Discount rate 3% Discount rate 7% Discount rate 3% Discount rate
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Fuel Reductions (Billion Gallons)....... 72.2-76.7
81.9-86.7
GHG reductions (MMT CO2 eq)............. 974-1,034
1,102-1,166
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Vehicle Program: Technology and Indirect 25.0-25.4 16.8-17.1 32.9-34.3 22.5-23.5
Costs, Normal Profit on Additional
Investments............................
Additional Routine Maintenance.......... 1.0-1.1 0.6-0.6 1.0-1.1 0.6-0.7
Congestion, Accidents, and Noise from 4.5-4.7 2.6-2.8 4.7-4.9 2.7-2.8
Increased Vehicle Use..................
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Total Costs......................... 30.5-31.1 20.0-20.5 38.7-40.8 25.8-27.0
Fuel Savings (valued at pre-tax prices). 165.1-175.1 89.2-94.2 187.4-198.3 102.0-107.5
Savings from Less Frequent Refueling.... 2.9-3.1 1.5-1.6 3.4-3.6 1.8-2.0
Economic Benefits from Additional 14.7-15.1 8.2-8.4 15.0-15.4 8.4-8.6
Vehicle Use............................
Reduced Climate Damages from GHG 32.9-34.9 32.9-34.9 37.3-39.4 37.3-39.4
Emissions \c\..........................
Reduced Health Damages from Non-GHG 37.2-38.8 20-20.7 40.9-42.5 22.1-22.8
Emissions..............................
Increased U.S. Energy Security.......... 8.1-8.9 4.3-4.7 9.3-10.2 5.0-5.5
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Total Benefits...................... 261-276 156-165 293-309 177-186
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Net Benefits.................... 231-245 136-144 255-269 151-159
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Notes:
\a\ For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less
dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
\b\ Range reflects two reference case assumptions 1a and 1b.
\c\ Benefits and net benefits use the 3 percent global average SCC value applied only to CO2 emissions; GHG
reductions include CO2, CH4, N2O and HFC reductions, and include benefits to other nations as well as the U.S.
See Draft RIA Chapter 8.5 and Preamble Section IX.G for further discussion.
Table I-9 shows benefits and cost from the perspective of reducing
GHG.
[[Page 40167]]
Table I-9--Lifetime Fuel Savings, GHG Reductions, Benefits, Costs and Net Benefits for Model Years 2018-2029
Vehicles Using Analysis Method B
[Billions of 2012$] \a\ \b\
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Alternative
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Category 3 Preferred 4
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
7% Discount rate 3% Discount rate 7% Discount rate 3% Discount rate
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Fuel Reductions (Billion 70.2 to 75.8
Gallons).
79.7 to 85.4
GHG reductions (MMT CO2eq)... 960 to 1,040
1,090 to 1,160
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Vehicle Program (e.g., -$24.6 to -$25.1 -$16.3 to -$16.6 -$33.1 to -$33.5 -$22.2 to -$22.5
technology and indirect
costs, normal profit on
additional investments).
Additional Routine -$1.1 to -$1.1 -$0.6 to -$0.6 -$1.1 to -$1.1 -$0.6 to -$0.6
Maintenance.
Fuel Savings (valued at pre- $159 to $171 $84.2 to $90.1 $181 to $193 $96.5 to $103
tax prices).
Energy Security.............. $8.5 to $9.3 $4.4 to $4.8 $9.8 to $10.6 $5.2 to $5.6
Congestion, Accidents, and -$4.2 to -$4.3 -$2.4 to -$2.4 -$4.2 to -$4.3 -$2.4 to -$2.4
Noise from Increased Vehicle
Use.
Savings from Less Frequent $2.8 to $3.1 $1.4 to $1.6 $3.3 to $3.6 $1.7 to $1.9
Refueling.
Economic Benefits from $14.8 to $14.9 $8.2 to $8.2 $14.7 to $14.8 $8.1 to $8.1
Additional Vehicle Use.
Benefits from Reduced Non-GHG $37.4 to $39.7 $17.7 to $18.8 $41.2 to $43.5 $19.7 to $20.7
Emissions \c\.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Reduced Climate Damages from $31.6 to $34.0
GHG Emissions \d\.
$35.9 to $38.3
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Net Benefits............. $224 to $242 $128 to $138 $248 to $265 $142 to $152
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Notes:
\a\ For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less
dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
\b\ Range reflects two baseline assumptions 1a and 1b.
\c\ Range reflects both the two baseline assumptions 1a and 1b using the mid-point of the low and high $/ton
estimates for calculating benefits.
\d\ Benefits and net benefits use the 3 percent average SCCO2 value applied only to CO2 emissions; GHG
reductions include CO2, CH4 and N2O reductions.
Table I-10 breaks down by vehicle category the benefits and costs
for the proposed standards and Alternative 4 using the Method A
analytical approach. For additional detail on per-vehicle break-downs
of costs and benefits, please see Chapter 10.
Table I-10--Per Vehicle Category Lifetime Fuel Savings, GHG Reductions, Benefits, Costs and Net Benefits for
Model Years 2018-2029 Vehicles Using Analysis Method A (Billions of 2012$), Relative to Baseline 1b \a\
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Alternative
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Key costs and benefits by vehicle 3 Preferred 4
category -----------------------------------------------------------------------
7% Discount rate 3% Discount rate 7% Discount rate 3% Discount rate
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tractors, Including Engines, and
Trailers:..............................
Fuel Reductions (Billion Gallons)... 56.1
61.6
GHG Reductions (MMT CO2 eq)......... 731.1
803.1
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Total Costs..................... 15.2 10.0 17.7 11.9
Total Benefits.................. 177.8 105.4 194.2 115.7
Net Benefits.................... 162.6 95.4 176.5 103.9
Vocational Vehicles, Including Engines:
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Fuel Reductions (Billion Gallons)... 8.3
10.9
GHG Reductions (MMT CO2 eq)......... 107.0
139.8
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Total Costs..................... 9.5 6.1 12.8 8.4
Total Benefits.................. 27.7 16.0 35.0 20.6
Net Benefits.................... 18.1 9.9 22.1 12.1
HD Pickups and Vans:
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Fuel Reductions (Billion Gallons)... 7.8
9.3
GHG Reductions (MMT CO2 eq)......... 94.1
112.8
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Total Costs..................... 5.5 3.7 7.8 5.3
[[Page 40168]]
Total Benefits.................. 23.5 14.1 28.3 17.1
Net Benefits.................... 18.0 10.5 20.4 11.9
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Notes:
\a\ For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less
dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
Table I-11--Per Vehicle Costs Relative to Baseline 1a
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
3 Proposed standards 4
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MY 2021 MY 2024 MY 2027 MY 2021 MY 2024
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Per Vehicle Cost ($) \a\
Tractors.................... $6,710 $9,940 $11,700 $10,200 $12,400
Trailers.................... 900 1,010 1,170 1,080 1,230
Vocational Vehicles......... 1,150 1,770 3,380 1,990 3,590
Pickups/Vans................ 520 950 1,340 1,050 1,730
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note:
\a\ Per vehicle costs include new engine and vehicle technology only; costs associated with increased insurance,
taxes and maintenance are included in the payback period values.
An important metric to vehicle purchasers is the payback period
that can be expected on any new purchase. In other words, there is
greater willingness to pay for new technology if that new technology
``pays back'' within an acceptable period of time. The agencies make no
effort to define the acceptable period of time, but seek to estimate
the payback period for others to make the decision themselves. The
payback period is the point at which reduced fuel expenditures outpace
increased vehicle costs, including increased maintenance, insurance
premiums and taxes. The payback periods for vehicles meeting the
standards considered for the final year of implementation (MY2024 for
alternative 4 and MY2027 for the proposed standards) are shown in Table
I-12, and are similar for both Method A and Method B.
Table I-12--Payback Periods for MY2027 Vehicles Under the Proposed
Standards and for MY2024 Vehicles Under Alternative 4 Relative to
Baseline 1a
[Payback occurs in the year shown; using 7% discounting]
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Proposed
standards Alternative 4
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Tractors/Trailers....................... 2nd 2nd
Vocational Vehicles..................... 6th 6th
Pickups/Vans............................ 3rd 4th
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(3) Cost Effectiveness
These proposed regulations implement Section 32902(k) of EISA and
Section 202(a)(1) and (2) of the Clean Air Act. Through the 2007 EISA,
Congress directed NHTSA to create a medium- and heavy-duty vehicle fuel
efficiency program designed to achieve the maximum feasible improvement
by considering appropriateness, cost-effectiveness, and technological
feasibility to determine maximum feasible standards.\62\ The Clean Air
Act requires that any air pollutant emission standards for heavy-duty
vehicles and engines take into account the costs of any requisite
technology and the lead time necessary to implement such technology.
Both agencies considered overall costs, overall benefits and cost
effectiveness in developing the Phase 1 standards. Although there are
different ways to evaluate cost effectiveness, the essence is to
consider some measure of costs relative to some measure of impacts.
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\62\ This EISA requirement applies to regulation of medium- and
heavy-duty vehicles. For many years, and as reaffirmed by Congress
in 2007, ``economic practicability'' has been among the factors EPCA
requires NHTSA to consider when setting light-duty fuel economy
standards at the (required) maximum feasible levels. NHTSA
interprets ``economic practicability'' as a factor involving
considerations broader than those likely to be involved in ``cost
effectiveness''.
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Considering that Congress enacted EPCA and EISA to, among other
things, address the need to conserve energy, the agencies have
evaluated the proposed standards in terms of costs per gallon of fuel
conserved. As described in the draft RIA, the agencies also evaluated
the
[[Page 40169]]
proposed standards using the same approaches employed in HD Phase 1.
Together, the agencies have considered the following three ratios of
cost effectiveness:
1. Total costs per gallon of fuel conserved.
2. Technology costs per ton of GHG emissions reduced.
3. Technology costs minus fuel savings per ton of GHG emissions
reduced.
By all three of these measures, the proposed standards would be
highly cost effective.
As discussed below, the agencies estimate that over the lifetime of
heavy-duty vehicles produced for sale in the U.S. during model years
2018-2029, the proposed standards would cost about $30 billion and
conserve about 75 billion gallons of fuel, such that the first measure
of cost effectiveness would be about 40 cents per gallon. Relative to
fuel prices underlying the agencies' analysis, the agencies have
concluded that today's proposed standards would be cost effective.
With respect to the second measure, which is useful for comparisons
to other GHG rules, the proposed standards would have overall $/ton
costs similar to the HD Phase 1 rule. As Chapter 7 of the draft RIA
shows, technology costs by themselves would amount to less than $50 per
metric ton of GHG (CO2 eq) for the entire HD Phase 2
program. This compares well to both the HD Phase 1 rule, which was
estimated to cost about $30 per metric ton of GHG (without fuel
savings), and to the agencies' estimates of the social cost of carbon.
Thus, even without accounting for fuel savings, the proposed standards
would be cost-effective.
The third measure deducts fuel savings from technology costs, which
also is useful for comparisons to other GHG rules. On this basis, net
costs per ton of GHG emissions reduced would be negative under the
proposed standards. This means that the value of the fuel savings would
be greater than the technology costs, and there would be a net cost
saving for vehicle owners. In other words, the technologies would pay
for themselves (indeed, more than pay for themselves) in fuel savings.
In addition, while the net economic benefits (i.e., total benefits
minus total costs) of the proposed standards is not a traditional
measure of their cost-effectiveness, the agencies have concluded that
the total costs of the proposed standards are justified in part by
their significant economic benefits. As discussed in the previous
subsection and in Section IX, this rule would provide benefits beyond
the fuel conserved and GHG emissions avoided. The rule's net benefits
is a measure that quantifies each of its various benefits in economic
terms, including the economic value of the fuel it saves and the
climate-related damages it avoids, and compares their sum to the rule's
estimated costs. The agencies estimate that the proposed standards
would result in net economic benefits exceeding $100 billion, making
this a highly beneficial rule.
Our current analysis of Alternative 4 also shows that, if
technologically feasible, it would have similar cost-effectiveness but
with greater net benefits (see Chapter 11 of the draft RIA). For
example, the agencies estimate costs under Alternative 4 could be about
$40 billion and about 85 billion gallons of fuel could be conserved,
such that the first measure of cost effectiveness would be about 47
cents per gallon. However, the agencies considered all of the relevant
factors, not just relative cost-effectiveness, when selecting the
proposed standards from among the alternatives considered. Relative
cost-effectiveness was not a limiting factor for the agencies in
selecting the proposed standards. It is also worth noting that the
proposed standards and the Alternative 4 standards appear very cost
effective, regardless of which reference case is used for the baseline,
such that all of the analyses reinforced the agencies' findings.
E. EPA and NHTSA Statutory Authorities
This section briefly summarizes the respective statutory authority
for EPA and NHTSA to promulgate the Phase 1 and proposed Phase 2
programs. For additional details of the agencies' authority, see
Section XV of this notice as well as the Phase 1 rule.\63\
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\63\ 76 FR 57106--57129, September 15, 2011.
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(1) EPA Authority
Statutory authority for the vehicle controls in this proposal is
found in CAA section 202(a)(1) and (2) (which requires EPA to establish
standards for emissions of pollutants from new motor vehicles and
engines which emissions cause or contribute to air pollution which may
reasonably be anticipated to endanger public health or welfare), and in
CAA sections 202(d), 203-209, 216, and 301 (42 U.S.C. 7521 (a)(1) and
(2), 7521(d), 7522-7543, 7550, and 7601).
Title II of the CAA provides for comprehensive regulation of mobile
sources, authorizing EPA to regulate emissions of air pollutants from
all mobile source categories. When acting under Title II of the CAA,
EPA considers such issues as technology effectiveness, its cost (both
per vehicle, per manufacturer, and per consumer), the lead time
necessary to implement the technology, and based on this the
feasibility and practicability of potential standards; the impacts of
potential standards on emissions reductions of both GHGs and non-GHG
emissions; the impacts of standards on oil conservation and energy
security; the impacts of standards on fuel savings by customers; the
impacts of standards on the truck industry; other energy impacts; as
well as other relevant factors such as impacts on safety.
This proposed action implements a specific provision from Title II,
Section 202(a). Section 202(a)(1) of the CAA states that ``the
Administrator shall by regulation prescribe (and from time to time
revise) . . . standards applicable to the emission of any air pollutant
from any class or classes of new motor vehicles . . ., which in his
judgment cause, or contribute to, air pollution which may reasonably be
anticipated to endanger public health or welfare.'' With EPA's December
2009 final findings that certain greenhouse gases may reasonably be
anticipated to endanger public health and welfare and that emissions of
GHGs from Section 202(a) sources cause or contribute to that
endangerment, Section 202(a) requires EPA to issue standards applicable
to emissions of those pollutants from new motor vehicles. See Coalition
for Responsible Regulation v. EPA, 684 F. 3d at 116-125, 126-27 cert.
granted by, in part Util. Air Regulatory Group v. EPA, 134 S. Ct. 418,
187 L. Ed. 2d 278, 2013 U.S. LEXIS 7380 (U.S., 2013), affirmed in part
and reversed in part on unrelated grounds by Util. Air Regulatory Group
v. EPA, 134 S. Ct. 2427, 189 L. Ed. 2d 372, 2014 U.S. LEXIS 4377 (U.S.,
2014) (upholding EPA's endangerment and cause and contribute findings,
and further affirming EPA's conclusion that it is legally compelled to
issue standards under Section 202 (a) to address emission of the
pollutant which endangers after making the endangerment and cause of
contribute findings); see also id. at 127-29 (upholding EPA's light-
duty GHG emission standards for MYs 2012-2016 in their entirety).
Other aspects of EPA's legal authority, including it authority
under Section 202(a), its testing authority under Section 203 of the
Act, and its enforcement authorities under Section 207 of the Act are
discussed fully in the Phase 1 rule, and need not be repeated here. See
76 FR 57129-57130.
[[Page 40170]]
The proposed rule includes GHG emission and fuel efficiency
standards applicable to trailers--an essential part of the tractor-
trailer motor vehicle. Class 7/8 heavy-duty vehicles are composed of
three major components:--The engine, the cab-chassis (i.e. the
tractor), and the trailer. The fact that the vehicle consists of two
detachable parts does not mean that either of the parts is not a motor
vehicle. The trailer's sole purpose is to serve as the cargo-hauling
part of the vehicle. Without the tractor, the trailer cannot transport
property. The tractor is likewise incomplete without the trailer. The
motor vehicle needs both parts, plus the engine, to accomplish its
intended use. Connected together, a tractor and trailer constitute ``a
self-propelled vehicle designed for transporting . . . property on a
street or highway,'' and thus meet the definition of ``motor vehicle''
under Section 216(2) of the CAA. Thus, as EPA has previously explained,
we interpret our authority to regulate motor vehicles to include
authority to regulate such trailers. See 79 FR 46259 (August 7,
2014).\64\
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\64\ Indeed, an argument that a trailer is not a motor vehicle
because, considered (artificially) as a separate piece of equipment
it is not self-propelled, applies equally to the cab-chassis--the
tractor. No entity has suggested that tractors are not motor
vehicles; nor is such an argument plausible.
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This analysis is consistent with definitions in the Federal
regulations issued under the CAA at 40 CFR 86.1803-01, where a heavy-
duty vehicle ``that has the primary load carrying device or container
attached'' is referred to as a ``[c]omplete heavy-duty vehicle,'' while
a heavy-duty vehicle or truck ``which does not have the primary load
carrying device or container attached'' is referred to as an
``[i]ncomplete heavy- duty vehicle'' or ``[i]ncomplete truck.'' The
trailers that would be covered by this proposal are properly considered
``the primary load carrying device or container'' for the heavy-duty
vehicles to which they become attached for use. Therefore, under these
definitions, such trailers are implicitly part of a ``complete heavy-
duty vehicle,'' and thus part of a ``motor vehicle.''
65 66 67
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\65\ We note further, however, that certain hauled items, for
example a boat, would not be considered to be a trailer under the
proposal. See proposed section 1037.801, proposing to define
``trailer' as being ``designed for cargo and for being drawn by a
tractor.''
\66\ This concept is likewise reflected in the definition of
``tractor'' in the parallel Department of Transportation
regulations: ``a truck designed primarily for drawing other motor
vehicles and not so constructed as to carry a load other than a part
of the weight of the vehicle and the load so drawn.'' See 49 CFR
571.3.
\67\ EPA's proposed definition of ``vehicle'' in 40 CFR 1037.801
makes clear that an incomplete trailer becomes a vehicle (and thus
subject to the prohibition against introduction into commerce
without a certificate) when it has a frame with axles attached.
Complete trailers are also vehicles.
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The argument that trailers do not themselves emit pollutants and so
are not subject to emission standards is also unfounded. First, the
argument lacks a factual predicate. Trailers indisputably contribute to
the motor vehicle's CO2 emissions by increasing engine load,
and these emissions can be reduced through various means such as
trailer aerodynamic and tire rolling resistance improvements. See
Section IV below. The argument also lacks a legal predicate. Section
202(a)(1) authorizes standards applicable to emissions of air
pollutants ``from'' either the motor vehicle or the engine. There is no
requirement that pollutants be emitted from a specified part of the
motor vehicle or engine. And indeed, the argument proves too much,
since tractors and vocational vehicle chassis likewise contribute to
emissions (including contributing by the same mechanisms that trailers
do) but do not themselves directly emit pollutants. The fact that
Section 202(a)(1) applies explicitly to both motor vehicles and engines
likewise indicates that EPA has unquestionable authority to interpret
pollutant emission caused by the vehicle component to be ``from'' the
motor vehicle and so within its regulatory authority under Section
202(a)(1).\68\
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\68\ This argument applies equally to emissions of criteria
pollutants, whose rate of emission is likewise affected by vehicle
characteristics. It is for this reason that EPA's implementing rules
for criteria pollutants from heavy duty vehicles and engines specify
a test weight for certification testing, since that weight
influences the amount of pollution emission.
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(2) NHTSA Authority
The Energy Policy and Conservation Act (EPCA) of 1975 mandates a
regulatory program for motor vehicle fuel economy to meet the various
facets of the need to conserve energy. In December 2007, Congress
enacted the Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA), amending EPCA
to require, among other things, the creation of a medium- and heavy-
duty fuel efficiency program for the first time.
Statutory authority for the fuel consumption standards in this
proposed rule is found in EISA section 103, 49 U.S.C. 32902(k). This
section authorizes a fuel efficiency improvement program, designed to
achieve the maximum feasible improvement to be created for commercial
medium- and heavy-duty on-highway vehicles and work trucks, to include
appropriate test methods, measurement metrics, standards, and
compliance and enforcement protocols that are appropriate, cost-
effective and technologically feasible.
NHTSA has responsibility for fuel economy and consumption
standards, and assures compliance with EISA through rulemaking,
including standard-setting; technical reviews, audits and studies;
investigations; and enforcement of implementing regulations including
penalty actions. This proposed rule would continue to fulfill the
requirements of Section 103 of EISA, which instructs NHTSA to create a
fuel efficiency improvement program for ``commercial medium- and heavy-
duty on-highway vehicles and work trucks'' by rulemaking, which is to
include standards, test methods, measurement metrics, and enforcement
protocols. See 49 U.S.C. 32902(k)(2).
Congress directed that the standards, test methods, measurement
metrics, and compliance and enforcement protocols be ``appropriate,
cost-effective, and technologically feasible'' for the vehicles to be
regulated, while achieving the ``maximum feasible improvement'' in fuel
efficiency. NHTSA has broad discretion to balance the statutory factors
in Section 103 in developing fuel consumption standards to achieve the
maximum feasible improvement.
As discussed in the Phase 1 final rule notice, NHTSA has determined
that the five year statutory limit on average fuel economy standards
that applies to passengers and light trucks is not applicable to the HD
vehicle and engine standards. As a result, the Phase 1 HD engine and
vehicle standards remain in effect indefinitely at their 2018 or 2019
MY levels until amended by a future rulemaking action. As was
contemplated in that notice, NHTSA is currently engaging in this Phase
2 rulemaking action. Therefore, the Phase 1 standards would not remain
in effect at their 2018 or 2019 MY levels indefinitely; they would
remain in effect until the MY Phase 2 standards apply. In accordance
with Section 103 of EISA, NHTSA will ensure that not less than four
full MYs of regulatory lead-time and three full MYs of regulatory
stability are provided for in the Phase 2 standards.
(a) Authority To Regulate Trailers
As contemplated in the Phase 1 proposed and final rules, the
agencies are proposing standards for trailers in this rulemaking.
Because Phase 1 did not include standards for trailers, NHTSA did not
discuss its authority for regulating them in the proposed or final
rules; that authority is described here.
[[Page 40171]]
EISA directs NHTSA to ``determine in a rulemaking proceeding how to
implement a commercial medium- and heavy-duty on-highway vehicle and
work truck fuel efficiency improvement program designed to achieve the
maximum feasible improvement. . . .'' EISA defines a commercial medium-
and heavy-duty on-highway vehicle to mean ``an on-highway vehicle with
a GVWR of 10,000 lbs or more.'' A ``work truck'' is defined as a
vehicle between 8,500 and 10,000 lbs GVWR that is not an MDPV. These
definitions do not explicitly exclude trailers, in contrast to MDPVs.
Because Congress did not act to exclude trailers when defining GVWRs,
despite demonstrating the ability to exclude MDPVs, it is reasonable to
interpret the provision to include them.
Both commercial medium- and heavy-duty on-highway vehicles and work
trucks, though, must be vehicles in order to be regulated under this
program. Although EISA does not define the term ``vehicle,'' NHTSA's
authority to regulate motor vehicles under its organic statute, the
Motor Vehicle Safety Act (``Safety Act''), does. The Safety Act defines
a motor vehicle as ``a vehicle driven or drawn by mechanical power and
manufactured primarily for use on public streets, roads, and highways.
. . .'' NHTSA clearly has authority to regulate trailers under this Act
as vehicles that are drawn and has exercised that authority numerous
times. Given the absence of any apparent contrary intent on the part of
Congress in EISA, NHTSA believes it is reasonable to interpret the term
``vehicle'' as used in the EISA definitions to have a similar meaning
that includes trailers.
Furthermore, the general definition of a vehicle is something used
to transport goods or persons from one location to another. A tractor-
trailer is designed for the purpose of transporting goods. Therefore it
is reasonable to consider all of its parts--the engine, the cab-
chassis, and the trailer--as parts of a whole. As such they are all
parts of a vehicle, and are captured within the definition of vehicle.
As EPA describes above, the tractor and trailer are both incomplete
without the other. Neither can fulfill the function of the vehicle
without the other. For this reason, and the other reasons stated above,
NHTSA interprets its authority to regulate commercial medium- and
heavy-duty on-highway vehicles, including tractor-trailers, as
encompassing both tractors and trailers.
(b) Authority To Regulate Recreational Vehicles
NHTSA did not regulate recreational vehicles as part of the Phase 1
medium- and heavy-duty fuel consumption standards, although EPA did
regulate them as vocational vehicles for GHG emissions.\69\ In the
Phase 1 proposed rule, NHTSA interpreted ``commercial medium- and heavy
duty'' to mean that recreational vehicles, such as motor homes, were
not to be included within the program because recreational vehicles are
not commercial. Oshkosh Corporation submitted a comment on the agency's
interpretation stating that it did not match the statutory definition
of ``commercial medium- and heavy-duty on-highway vehicle,'' which
defines the phrase by GVWR and on-highway use. In the Phase 1 final
rule NHTSA agreed with Oshkosh Corporation that the agency had
effectively read words into the statutory definition. However, because
recreational vehicles were not proposed in the Phase 1 proposed rule,
they were not within the scope of the rulemaking and were excluded from
NHTSA's standards.\70\ NHTSA expressed that it would address
recreational vehicles in its next rulemaking.
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\69\ EPA did not give special consideration to recreational
vehicles because the CAA applies to heavy-duty motor vehicle
generally.
\70\ Motor homes are still subject to EPA's Phase 1
CO2 standards for vocational vehicles.
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NHTSA is proposing that recreational vehicles be included in the
Phase 2 fuel consumption standards. As discussed above, EISA prescribes
that NHTSA shall set average fuel economy standards for work trucks and
commercial medium-duty or heavy-duty on-highway vehicles. ``Work
truck'' means a vehicle that is rated between 8,500 and 10,000 lbs GVWR
and is not an MDPV. ``Commercial medium- and heavy-duty on-road highway
vehicle'' means an on-highway vehicle with a gross vehicle weight
rating of 10,000 lbs or more.\71\ Based on the definitions in EISA,
recreational vehicles would be regulated as class 2b-8 vocational
vehicles. Excluding recreational vehicles from the NHTSA standards in
Phase 2 could create illogical results, including treating similar
vehicles differently. Moreover, including recreational vehicles under
NHTSA regulations furthers the agencies' goal of one national program,
as EPA regulations already cover recreational vehicles.
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\71\ 49 U.S.C. 32901(a)(7).
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NHTSA is proposing that recreational vehicles be included in the
Phase 2 fuel consumption standards and that early compliance be allowed
for manufacturers who want to certify during the Phase 1 period.\72\
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\72\ NHTSA did not allow early compliance for one RV
manufacturer in MY 2014 that is currently complying EPA's GHG
standards.
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F. Other Issues
In addition to the standards being proposed, this notice discusses
several other issues related to those standards. It also proposes some
regulatory provisions related to the Phase 1 program, as well as
amendments related to other EPA and NHTSA regulations. These other
issues are summarized briefly here and discussed in greater detail in
later sections.
(1) Issues Related to Phase 2
(a) Natural Gas Engines and Vehicles
This combined rulemaking by EPA and NHTSA is designed to regulate
two separate characteristics of heavy duty vehicles: GHGs and fuel
consumption. In the case of diesel or gasoline powered vehicles, there
is a one-to-one relationship between these two characteristics. For
alternatively fueled vehicles, which use no petroleum, the situation is
different. For example, a natural gas vehicle that achieves
approximately the same fuel efficiency as a diesel powered vehicle
would emit 20 percent less CO2; and a natural gas vehicle
with the same fuel efficiency as a gasoline vehicle would emit 30
percent less CO2. Yet natural gas vehicles consume no
petroleum. In Phase 1, the agencies balanced these facts by applying
the gasoline and diesel CO2 standards to natural gas engines
based on the engine type of the natural gas engine. Fuel consumption
for these vehicles is then calculated according to their tailpipe
CO2 emissions. In essence, this applies a one-to-one
relationship between fuel efficiency and tailpipe CO2
emissions for all vehicles, including natural gas vehicles. The
agencies determined that this approach would likely create a small
balanced incentive for natural gas use. In other words, it created a
small incentive for the use of natural gas engines that appropriately
balanced concerns about the climate impact methane emissions against
other factors such as the energy security benefits of using domestic
natural gas. See 76 FR 57123. We propose to maintain this approach for
Phase 2. Note that EPA is also considering natural gas in a broader
context of life cycle emissions, as described in Section XI.
(b) Alternative Refrigerants
In addition to use of leak-tight components in air conditioning
system
[[Page 40172]]
design, manufacturers could also decrease the global warming impact of
refrigerant leakage emissions by adopting systems that use alternative,
lower global warming potential (GWP) refrigerants, to replace the
refrigerant most commonly used today, HFC-134a (R-134a). HFC-134a is a
potent greenhouse gas with a GWP 1,430 times greater than that of
CO2.
Under EPA's Significant New Alternatives Policy (SNAP) Program,\73\
EPA has found acceptable, subject to use conditions, three alternative
refrigerants that have significantly lower GWPs than HFC-134a for use
in A/C systems in newly manufactured light-duty vehicles: HFC-152a,
CO2 (R-744), and HFO-1234yf.\74\ HFC-152a has a GWP of 124,
HFO-1234yf has a GWP of 4, and CO2 (by definition) has a GWP
of 1, as compared to HFC-134a which has a GWP of 1,430.\75\
CO2 is nonflammable, while HFO-1234yf and HFC-152a are
flammable. All three are subject to use conditions requiring labeling
and the use of unique fittings, and where appropriate, mitigating
flammability and toxicity. Currently, the SNAP listing for HFO-1234yf
is limited to newly manufactured A/C systems in LD vehicles, whereas
HFC-152a and CO2 have been found acceptable for all motor
vehicle air conditioning applications, including heavy-duty vehicles.
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\73\ Section 612(c) of the Clean Air Act requires EPA to review
substitutes for class I and class II ozone-depleting substances and
to determine whether such substitutes pose lower risk than other
available alternatives. EPA is also required to publish lists of
substitutes that it determines are acceptable and those it
determines are unacceptable. See https://www.epa.gov/ozone/snap/refrigerants/lists/, last accessed on March 5, 2015.
\74\ Listed at 40 CFR part 82, subpart G.
\75\ GWP values cited in this proposal are from the IPCC Fourth
Assessment Report (AR4) unless stated otherwise. Where no GWP is
listed in AR4, GWP values shall be determined consistent with the
calculations and analysis presented in AR4 and referenced materials.
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None of these alternative refrigerants can simply be ``dropped''
into existing HFC-134a air conditioning systems. In order to account
for the unique properties of each refrigerant and address use
conditions required under SNAP, changes to the systems will be
necessary. Typically these changes will need to occur during a vehicle
redesign cycle but could also occur during a refresh. For example,
because CO2, when used as a refrigerant, is physically and
thermodynamically very different from HFC-134a and operates at much
higher pressures, a transition to this refrigerant would require
significant hardware changes. A transition to A/C systems designed for
HFO-1234yf, which is more thermodynamically similar to HFC-134a than is
CO2, requires less significant hardware changes that
typically include installation of a thermal expansion valve and could
potentially require resized condensers and evaporators, as well as
changes in other components. In addition, vehicle assembly plants
require re-tooling in order to handle new refrigerants safely. Thus a
change in A/C refrigerants requires significant engineering, planning,
and manufacturing investments.
EPA is not aware of any significant development of A/C systems
designed to use alternative refrigerants in heavy-duty vehicles; \76\
however, all three lower GWP alternatives are in use or under various
stages of development for use in LD vehicles. Of these three
refrigerants, most manufacturers of LD vehicles have identified HFO-
1234yf as the most likely refrigerant to be used in that application.
For that reason, EPA would anticipate that HFO-1234yf could be a
primary candidate for refrigerant substitution in the HD market in the
future if it is listed as an acceptable substitute under SNAP for HD A/
C applications. EPA has begun, but has not yet completed, our
evaluation of the use of HFO-1234yf in HD vehicles. After EPA has
conducted a full evaluation based on the SNAP program's comparative
risk framework, EPA will list this alternative as either a) acceptable
subject to use conditions or b) unacceptable if the risk of use in HD
A/C systems is determined to be greater than that of the other
currently or potentially available alternatives. EPA is also
considering and evaluating additional refrigerant substitutes for use
in motor vehicle A/C systems under the SNAP program. EPA welcomes
comments related to industry development of HD A/C systems using lower-
GWP refrigerants.
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\76\ To the extent that some manufacturers produce HD pickups
and vans on the same production lines or in the same facilities as
LD vehicles, some A/C system technology commonality between the two
vehicle classes may be developing.
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LD vehicle manufacturers are currently making investments in
systems designed for lower-GWP refrigerants, both domestically and on a
global basis. In support of the LD GHG rule, EPA projected a full
transition of LD vehicles to lower-GWP alternatives in the United
States by MY 2021. We expect the investment required to transition to
ease over time as alternative refrigerants are adopted across all LD
vehicles and trucks. This may occur in part due to increased
availability of components and the continuing increases in refrigerant
production capacity, as well as knowledge gained through experience. As
lower-GWP alternatives become widely used in LD vehicles, some
manufacturers may wish to also transition their HD vehicles.
Transitioning could be advantageous for a variety of reasons including
platform standardization and company environmental stewardship
policies.
Although manufacturers of HD vehicles may begin to transition to
alternative refrigerants in the future, there is great uncertainty
about when significant adoption of alternative refrigerants for HD
vehicles might begin, on what timeline adoption might become
widespread, and which refrigerants might be involved. Another factor is
that the most likely candidate, HFO-1234yf, remains under evaluation
and has not yet been listed under SNAP. For these reasons, EPA has not
attempted to project any specific hypothetical scenarios of transition
for analytical purposes in this proposed rule.
Because future introduction of and transition to lower-GWP
alternative refrigerants for HD vehicles may occur, EPA is proposing
regulatory provisions that would be in place if and when such
alternatives become available and manufacturers of HD vehicles choose
to use them. These proposed provisions would also have the effect of
easing the burden associated with complying with the lower-leakage
requirements when a lower-GWP refrigerant is used instead of HFC-134a.
These provisions would recognize that leakage of refrigerants would be
relatively less damaging from a climate perspective if one of the
lower-GWP alternatives is used. Specifically, EPA is proposing to allow
a manufacturer to be ``deemed to comply'' with the leakage standard by
using a lower-GWP alternative refrigerant. In order to be ``deemed to
comply'' the vehicle manufacturer would need to use a refrigerant other
than HFC-134a that is listed as an acceptable substitute refrigerant
for heavy-duty A/C systems under SNAP, and defined under the LD GHG
regulations at 40 CFR 86.1867-12(e). The refrigerants currently defined
at 40 CFR 86.1867-12(e), besides HFC-134a, are HFC-152a, HFO-1234yf,
and CO2. If a manufacturer chooses to use a lower-GWP
refrigerant that is listed in the future as acceptable in 40 CFR part
82, subpart G, but that is not identified in 40 CFR 86.1867-12(e), then
the manufacturer could contact EPA about how to appropriately determine
compliance with the leakage standard.
EPA encourages comment on all aspects of our proposed approach to
HD
[[Page 40173]]
vehicle refrigerant leakage and the potential future use of alternative
refrigerants for HD applications. We specifically request comment on
whether there should be additional provisions that could prevent or
discourage manufacturers that transition to an alternative refrigerant
from discontinuing existing, low-leak A/C system components and instead
reverting to higher-leakage components.
Recently, EPA proposed to change the SNAP listing for the
refrigerant HFC-134a from acceptable (subject to use conditions) to
unacceptable for use in A/C systems in new LD vehicles.\77\ EPA expects
to take final action on this proposed change in listing status for HFC-
134a for use in new, light-duty vehicles in 2015. If the final action
changes the status of HFC-134a to unacceptable, it would establish a
future compliance date by which HFC-134a could no longer be used in A/C
systems in newly manufactured LD vehicles; instead, all A/C systems in
new LD vehicles would be required to use HFC-152a, HFO-1234yf,
CO2, or any other alternative listed as acceptable for this
use in the future. The current proposed rule does not address the use
of HFC-134a in heavy-duty vehicles; however, EPA could consider a
change of listing status for HFC-134a use in HD vehicles in the future
if EPA determines that other alternatives are currently or potentially
available that pose lower overall risk to human health and the
environment.
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\77\ See 79 FR 46126, August 6, 2014.
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(c) Small Business Issues
The Regulatory Flexibility Act (RFA) generally requires an agency
to prepare a regulatory flexibility analysis of any rule subject to
notice and comment rulemaking requirements under the Administrative
Procedure Act or any other statute unless the agency certifies that the
rule will not have a significant economic impact on a substantial
number of small entities. See generally 5 U.S.C. Sections 601-612. The
RFA analysis is discussed in Section XIV.
Pursuant to Section 609(b) of the RFA, as amended by the Small
Business Regulatory Enforcement Fairness Act (SBREFA), EPA also
conducted outreach to small entities and convened a Small Business
Advocacy Review Panel to obtain advice and recommendations of
representatives of the small entities that potentially would be subject
to the rule's requirements. Consistent with the RFA/SBREFA
requirements, the Panel evaluated the assembled materials and small-
entity comments on issues related to elements of the IRFA. A copy of
the Panel Report is included in the docket for this proposed rule.
The agencies determined that the proposed Phase 2 regulations could
have a significant economic impact on small entities. Specifically, the
agencies identified four categories of directly regulated small
businesses that could be impacted:
Trailer Manufacturers
Alternative Fuel Converters
Vocational Chassis Manufacturers
Glider Vehicle \78\ Assemblers
\78\ Vehicles produced by installing a used engine into a new
chassis are commonly referred to as ``gliders,'' ``glider kits,'' or
``glider vehicles,''
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To minimize these impacts the agencies are proposing certain
regulatory flexibilities--both general and category-specific. In
general, we are proposing to delay new requirements for EPA GHG
emission standards by one year and simplify certification requirements
for small businesses. For the proposed trailers standards, small
businesses would be required to comply with EPA's standards before
NHTSA's fuel efficiency standards would begin. NHTSA does not believe
that providing small businesses trailer manufacturers with an
additional year of delay to comply with those fuel efficiency standards
would provide beneficial flexibility. The agencies are also proposing
the following specific relief:
Trailers: Proposing simpler requirements for non-box
trailers, which are more likely to be manufactured by small businesses;
and making third-party testing easier for certification.
Alternative Fuel Converters: Omitting recertification of a
converted vehicle when the engine is converted and certified; reduced
N2O testing; and simplified onboard diagnostics and delaying
required compliance with each new standard by one model year.
Vocational Chassis: Less stringent standards for certain
vehicle categories.
Glider Vehicle Assemblers: \79\ Exempt existing small
businesses, but limit the small business exemption to a capped level of
annual production (production in excess of the capped amount would be
allowed, but subject to all otherwise applicable requirements including
the Phase 2 standards).
\79\ EPA is proposing to amend its rules applicable to engines
installed in glider kits, a proposal which would affect emission
standards not only for GHGs but for criteria pollutants as well. EPA
is also proposing to clarify its requirements for certification and
revise its definitions for glider manufacturers. NHTSA is also
considering including gliders under its Phase 2 standards.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
These flexibilities are described in more detail in Section XIV and in
the Panel Report. The agencies look forward to comments and to feedback
from the small business community before finalizing the rule and
associated flexibilities to protect small businesses.
(d) Confidentiality of Test Results and GEM Inputs
In accordance with Federal statutes, EPA does not release
information from certification applications (or other compliance
reports) that we determine to be confidential business information
(CBI) under 40 CFR part 2. Consistent with the CAA, EPA does not
consider emission test results to be CBI after introduction into
commerce of the certified engine or vehicle. (However, we have
generally treated test results as protected before the introduction
into commerce date). For Phase 2, we expect to continue this policy and
thus would not treat any test results or other GEM inputs as CBI after
the introduction into commerce date as identified by the manufacturer.
We request comment on this approach.
We consider this issue to be especially relevant for tire rolling
resistance measurements. Our understanding is that tire manufacturers
typically consider such results as proprietary. However, under EPA's
policy, tire rolling resistance measurements are not considered to be
CBI and can be released to the public after the introduction into
commerce date identified by the manufacturer. We request comment on
whether EPA should release such data on a regular basis to make it
easier for operators to find proper replacement tires for their
vehicles.
With regard to NHTSA's treatment of confidential business
information, manufacturers must submit a request for confidentiality
with each electronic submission specifying any part of the information
or data in a report that it believes should be withheld from public
disclosure as trade secret or other confidential business information.
A form will be available through the NHTSA Web site to request
confidentiality. NHTSA does not consider manufacturers to continue to
have a business case for protecting pre-model report data after the
vehicles contained within that report have been introduced into
commerce.
(e) Delegated Assembly
In EPA's existing regulations (40 CFR 1068.261), we allow engine
manufacturers to sell or ship engines that are missing certain
emission-related components if those components will be installed by
the vehicle manufacturer. EPA has found this provision to work well for
engine manufacturers and is proposing a new provision in 40 CFR
[[Page 40174]]
1037.621 that would provide a similar allowance for vehicle
manufacturers to sell or ship vehicles that are missing certain
emission-related components if those components will be installed by a
secondary vehicle manufacturer. As conditions of this allowance
manufacturers would be required to:
Have a contractual obligation with the secondary
manufacturer to complete the assembly properly and provide instructions
about how to do so.
Keep records to demonstrate compliance.
Apply a temporary label to the incomplete vehicles.
Take other reasonable steps to ensure the assembly is
completed properly.
Describe in its application for certification how it will
use this allowance.
We request comment on this allowance.
(2) Proposed Amendments to Phase 1 Program
The agencies are proposing revisions to test procedures and
compliance provisions used for Phase 1. These changes are described in
Section XII. As a drafting matter, EPA notes that we are proposing to
migrate the GHG standards for Class 2b and 3 pickups and vans from 40
CFR 1037.104 to 40 CFR 86.1819-14. NHTSA is also proposing to amend 49
CFR part 535 to make technical corrections to its Phase 1 program to
better align with EPA's compliance approach, standards and
CO2 performance results. In general, these changes are
intended to improve the regulatory experience for regulated parties and
also reduce agency administrative burden. More specifically, NHTSA
proposes to change the rounding of its standards and performance values
to have more significant digits. Increasing the number of significant
digits for values used for compliance with NHTSA standards reduces
differences in credits generated and overall credit balances for the
NHTSA and EPA programs. NHTSA is also proposing to remove the
petitioning process for off-road vehicles, clarify requirements for the
documentation needed for submitting innovative technology requests in
accordance with 40 CFR 1037.610 and 49 CFR 535.7, and add further
detail to requirements for submitting credit allocation plans as
specified in 49 CFR 535.9. Finally, NHTSA is adding the same record
requirements that EPA currently requires to facilitate in-use
compliance inspections. These changes are intended to improve the
regulatory experience for regulated parties and also reduce agency
administrative burden.
(3) Other Proposed Amendments to EPA Regulations
EPA is proposing several amendments to regulations not directly
related to the HD Phase 1 or Phase 2 programs, as detailed in Section
XIII. For these amendments, there would not be corresponding changes in
NHTSA regulations (since there are no such regulations relevant to
those programs). Some of these relate directly to heavy-duty highway
engines, but not to the GHG programs. Others relate to nonroad engines.
This latter category reflects the regulatory structure EPA uses for its
mobile source regulations, in which regulatory provisions applying
broadly to different types of mobile sources are codified in common
regulatory parts such as 40 CFR part 1068. This approach creates a
broad regulatory structure that regulates highway and nonroad engines,
vehicles, and equipment collectively in a common program. Thus, it is
appropriate to include some proposed amendments to nonroad regulations
in addition to the changes proposed only for highway engines and
vehicles.
(a) Standards for Engines Used In Glider Kits
EPA regulations currently allow used pre-2013 engines to be
installed into new glider kits without meeting currently applicable
standards. As described in Section XIV, EPA is proposing to amend our
regulations to allow only engines that have been certified to meet
current standards to be installed in new glider kits, with two
exceptions. First, engines certified to earlier MY standards that were
identical to the current model year standards may be used. Second, the
small manufacturer allowance described in Section I.F.(1)(c) for glider
vehicles would also apply for the engines used in the exempted glider
kits.
(b) Re-Proposal of Nonconformance Penalty Process Changes
Nonconformance penalties (NCPs) are monetary penalties established
by regulation that allow a vehicle or engine manufacturer to sell
engines that do not meet the emission standards. Manufacturers unable
to comply with the applicable standard pay penalties, which are
assessed on a per-engine basis.
On September 5, 2012, EPA adopted final NCPs for heavy heavy-duty
diesel engines that could be used by manufacturers of heavy-duty diesel
engines unable to meet the current oxides of nitrogen (NOX)
emission standard. On December 11, 2013 the U.S. Court of Appeals for
the District of Columbia Circuit issued an opinion vacating that Final
Rule. It issued its mandate for this decision on April 16, 2014, ending
the availability of the NCPs for the current NOX standard,
as well as vacating certain amendments to the NCP regulations due to
concerns about inadequate notice. In particular, the amendments revise
the text explaining how EPA determines when NCP should be made
available. In this action, EPA is re-proposing most of these amendments
to provide fuller notice and additional opportunity for public comment.
They are discussed in Section XIV.
(c) Updates to Heavy-Duty Engine Manufacturer In-Use Testing
Requirements
EPA and manufacturers have gained substantial experience with in-
use testing over the last four or five years. This has led to important
insights in ways that the test protocol can be adjusted to be more
effective. We are accordingly proposing to make changes to the
regulations in 40 CFR part 86, subparts N and T.
(d) Extension of Certain 40 CFR Part 1068 Provisions to Highway
Vehicles and Engines
As part of the Phase 1 GHG standards, we applied the exemption and
importation provisions from 40 CFR part 1068, subparts C and D, to
heavy-duty highway engines and vehicles. We also specified that the
defect reporting provisions of 40 CFR 1068.501 were optional. In an
earlier rulemaking, we applied the selective enforcement auditing under
40 CFR part 1068, subpart E (75 FR 22896, April 30, 2010). We are
proposing in this rule to adopt the rest of 40 CFR part 1068 for heavy-
duty highway engines and vehicles, with certain exceptions and special
provisions.
As described above, we are proposing to apply all the general
compliance provisions of 40 CFR part 1068 to heavy-duty engines and
vehicles. We propose to also apply the recall provisions and the
hearing procedures from 40 CFR part 1068 for highway motorcycles and
for all vehicles subject to standards under 40 CFR part 86, subpart S.
We also request comment on applying the rest of the provisions from 40
CFR part 1068 to highway motorcycles and to all vehicles subject to
standards under 40 CFR part 86, subpart S.
EPA is proposing to update and consolidate the regulations related
to
[[Page 40175]]
formal and informal hearings in 40 CFR part 1068, subpart G. This would
allow us to rely on a single set of regulations for all the different
categories of vehicles, engines, and equipment that are subject to
emission standards. We also made an effort to write these regulations
for improved readability.
We are also proposing to make a number of changes to part 1068 to
correct errors, to add clarification, and to make adjustments based on
lessons learned from implementing these regulatory provisions.
(e) Amendments to Engine and Vehicle Test Procedures in 40 CFR Parts
1065 and 1066
EPA is proposing several changes to our engine testing procedures
specified in 40 CFR part 1065. None of these changes would
significantly impact the stringency of any standards.
(f) Amendments Related to Marine Diesel Engines in 40 CFR Parts 1042
and 1043
EPA's emission standards and certification requirements for marine
diesel engines under the Clean Air Act and the act to Prevent Pollution
from Ships are identified in 40 CFR parts 1042 and 1043, respectively.
EPA is proposing to amend these regulations with respect to continuous
NOX monitoring and auxiliary engines, as well as making
several other minor revisions.
(g) Amendments Related to Locomotives in 40 CFR Part 1033
EPA's emission standards and certification requirements for
locomotives under the Clean Air Act are identified in 40 CFR part 1033.
EPA is proposing to make several minor revisions to these regulations.
(4) Other Proposed Amendments to NHTSA Regulations
NHTSA is proposing to amend 49 CFR parts 512 and 537 to allow
manufacturers to submit required compliance data for the Corporate
Average Fuel Economy program electronically, rather than submitting
some reports to NHTSA via paper and CDs and some reports to EPA through
its VERIFY database system. The agencies are coordinating on an
information technology project which will allow manufacturers to submit
pre-model, mid-model and final model year reports through a single
electronic entry point. The agencies anticipate that this would reduce
the reporting burden on manufacturers by up to fifty percent. The
amendments to 49 CFR part 537 would allow reporting to an electronic
database (i.e. EPA's VERIFY system), and the amendments to 49 CFR part
512 would ensure that manufacturer's confidential business information
would be protected through that process. This proposal is discussed
further in Section XIII.
II. Vehicle Simulation, Engine Standards and Test Procedures
A. Introduction and Summary of Phase 1 and Phase 2 Regulatory
Structures
This Section II. A. gives an overview of our vehicle simulation
approach in Phase 1 and our proposed approach for Phase 2; our separate
engine standards for tractor and vocational chassis in Phase 1 and our
proposed separate engine standards in Phase 2; and it describes our
engine and vehicle test procedures that are common among the tractor
and vocational chassis standards. Section II. B. discusses in more
detail how the Phase 2 proposed regulatory structure would approach
vehicle simulation, separate engine standards, and test procedures.
Section II. C. discusses the proposed vehicle simulation computer
program, GEM, in further detail and Section II. D. discusses the
proposed separate engine standards and engine test procedure. See
Sections III through VI for discussions of the proposed test procedures
that are unique for tractors, trailers, vocational chassis, and HD
pickup trucks and vans.
In Phase 1 the agencies adopted a regulatory structure that
included a vehicle simulation procedure for certifying tractors and the
chassis of vocational vehicles. In contrast, the agencies adopted a
full vehicle chassis dynamometer test procedure for certifying complete
heavy-duty pickups and vans. The Phase 1 vehicle simulation procedure
for tractors and vocational chassis requires regulated entities to use
GEM to simulate and certify tractors and vocational vehicle chassis.
This program is provided free of charge for unlimited use and may be
downloaded by anyone from EPA's Web site: https://www.epa.gov/otaq/climate/gem.htm. This computer program mathematically combines vehicle
component test results with other pre-determined vehicle attributes to
determine a vehicle's levels of fuel consumption and CO2
emissions for certification purposes. For Phase 1, the required inputs
to this computer program include, for tractors, vehicle aerodynamics
information, tire rolling resistance, and whether or not a vehicle is
equipped with certain lightweight high-strength steel or aluminum
components, a tamper-proof speed limiter, or tamper-proof idle
reduction technologies. The sole input for vocational vehicles, was
tire rolling resistance. For Phase 1 the computer program's inputs did
not include engine test results or attributes related to a vehicle's
powertrain, namely, its transmission, drive axle(s), or tire
revolutions per mile. Instead, for Phase 1 the agencies specified a
generic engine and powertrain within the computer program, and for
Phase 1 these cannot be changed by a program user.\80\
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\80\ These attributes are recognized in Phase 1 innovative
technology provisions at 40 CFR 1037.610.
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The full vehicle chassis dynamometer test procedure for heavy-duty
pickups and vans substantially mirrors EPA's existing light-duty
vehicle test procedure. EPA also set separate engine so-called cap
standards for methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide
(N2O) (essentially capping current emission levels).
Compliance with the CH4 and N2O standards is
measured by an engine dynamometer test procedure, which EPA based on
our existing heavy-duty engine emissions test procedure with small
adaptations. EPA also set hydro-fluorocarbon refrigerant leakage design
standards for cabin air conditioning systems in tractors, pickups, and
vans, which are evaluated by design rather than a test procedure.
In this action the agencies are proposing a similar regulatory
structure for Phase 2, along with a number of revisions that are
intended to more accurately evaluate vehicle and engine technologies'
impact on real-world fuel efficiency and GHG emissions. Thus, we are
proposing to continue the same certification test regime for heavy duty
pickups and vans, and for the CH4 and N2O)
standards, as well as tractor and pickup and van air conditioning
leakage standards. EPA is also proposing to control vocational vehicle
air conditioning leakage and to use that same certification procedure.
We are proposing to continue the vehicle simulation procedure for
certifying tractors and vocational chassis, and we are proposing a new
regulatory program to regulate some of the trailers hauled by tractors.
The agencies are proposing the use of an equation based on the vehicle
simulation procedure for trailer certification. In addition, we are
proposing a simplified option for trailer certification that would not
require testing to be undertaken by manufacturers to generate inputs
for the equation. We are also proposing to continue separate fuel
consumption and CO2 standards for the engines installed
[[Page 40176]]
in tractors and vocational chassis, and we are proposing to continue to
require a full vehicle chassis dynamometer test procedure for
certifying complete heavy-duty pickups and vans. As described in
Section II.B.(2)(b), the agencies see important advantages to
maintaining separate engines standards, such as improved compliance
assurance and better control during transient engine operation.
The vehicle simulation procedure necessitates some testing of
engines and vehicle components to generate the inputs for the
simulation tool; that is, to generate the inputs to the model which is
used to certify tractors and vocational chassis. For trailers, some
testing may be performed in order to generate values that are input
into the simulation-based compliance equations. In addition to the
testing needed for this purpose for the inputs used in the Phase 1
standards, the agencies are proposing in Phase 2 that manufacturers
conduct additional required and optional engine and vehicle component
tests, and proposing the additional procedures for conducting these
input tests. These include a new required engine test procedure that
provides steady-state engine fuel consumption and CO2 inputs
to represent the actual engine in a vehicle. In addition, we are
seeking comment on a newly developed engine test procedure that
captures transient engine performance for use in the vehicle simulation
computer program. As described in detail in the draft RIA Chapter 4, we
are proposing to require entering attributes that describe the
vehicle's transmission type, and its number of gears and gear ratios.
We are proposing an optional powertrain test procedure that would
provide inputs to override the agencies' simulated engine and
transmission in the vehicle simulation computer program. We are
proposing to require entering attributes that describe the vehicle's
drive axle(s) type and axle ratio. We are also seeking comment on an
optional axle efficiency test procedure that would override the
agencies' simulated axle in the vehicle simulation computer program. To
improve the measurement of aerodynamic components performance, we are
proposing a number of improvements to the aerodynamic coast-down test
procedure and data analysis, and we are seeking comment on a newly
developed constant speed aerodynamic test procedure. We are proposing
that the aerodynamic test procedures for tractors be applicable to
trailers when a regulated entity opts to use the GEM-based compliance
equation. Additional details about all these test procedures are found
in the draft RIA Chapter 3.
We are further proposing to significantly expand the number of
technologies that are recognized in the vehicle simulation computer
program. These include recognizing lightweight thermoplastic materials,
automatic tire inflation systems, advanced cruise control systems,
workday idle reduction systems, and axle configurations that decrease
the number of drive axles. We are seeking comment on recognizing
additional technologies such as high efficiency glass and low global
warming potential air conditioning refrigerants as post-process
adjustments to the simulation results.
To better reflect real-world operation, we are also proposing to
revise the vehicle simulation computer program's urban (55 mph) and
rural (65 mph) highway duty cycles to include changes in road grade. We
are seeking comment on whether or not these duty cycles should also
simulate driver behavior in response to varying traffic patterns. We
are proposing a new duty cycle to capture the performance of
technologies that reduce the amount of time a vehicle's engine is at
idle during a workday when the vehicle is not moving. And to better
recognize that vocational vehicle powertrains are configured for
particular applications, we are proposing to further subdivide the
vocational chassis category into three different vehicle speed
categories. This is in addition to the Phase 1 subdivision by three
weight categories. The result is nine proposed vocational vehicle
subcategories for Phase 2. The agencies are also proposing to subdivide
the highest weight class of tractors into two separate categories to
recognize the unique configurations and technology applicability to
``heavy-haul'' tractors.
Even though we are proposing to include engine test results as
inputs into the vehicle simulation computer model, we are also
proposing to continue the Phase 1 separate engine standard regulatory
structure by proposing separate engine fuel consumption and
CO2 standards for engines installed in tractors and
vocational chassis. For these separate engine standards, we are
proposing to continue to use the Phase 1 engine dynamometer test
procedure, which was adapted substantially from EPA's existing heavy-
duty engine emissions test procedure. However, we are proposing to
modify the weighting factors of the tractor engine's 13-point steady-
state duty cycle to better reflect real-world engine operation and to
reflect the trend toward operating engines at lower engine speeds
during tractor cruise speed operation. Further details on the proposed
Phase 2 separate engine standards are provided below in Section II. D.
In today's action EPA is proposing to continue the separate engine cap
standards for methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide
(N2O) emissions.
(1) Phase 1 Vehicle Simulation Computer Program (GEM)
For Phase 1 EPA developed a vehicle simulation computer program
called, ``Greenhouse gas Emissions Model'' or ``GEM.'' GEM was created
for Phase 1 for the exclusive purpose of certifying tractors and
vocational vehicle chassis. GEM is similar in concept to a number of
other commercially available vehicle simulation computer programs. See
76 FR 57116, 57146, and 57156-57157. However, GEM is also unique in a
number of ways.
Similar to other vehicle simulation computer programs, GEM combines
various vehicle inputs with known physical laws and justified
assumptions to predict vehicle performance for a given period of
vehicle operation. For Phase 1 GEM's vehicle inputs include vehicle
aerodynamics information (for tractors), tire rolling resistance, and
whether or not a vehicle is equipped with lightweight materials, a
tamper-proof speed limiter, or tamper-proof idle reduction
technologies. Other vehicle and engine characteristics were fixed as
defaults that cannot be altered by the user. These defaults included
tabulated data of engine fuel rate as a function of engine speed and
torque (i.e. ``engine fuel maps''), transmissions, axle ratios, and
vehicle payloads. For tractors, Phase 1 GEM models the vehicle pulling
a standard trailer. For vocational vehicles, Phase 1 GEM includes a
fixed aerodynamic drag coefficient and vehicle frontal area.
GEM uses the same physical principles as many other existing
vehicle simulation models to derive governing equations which describe
driveline components, engine, and vehicle. These equations are then
integrated in time to calculate transient speed and torque. Some of the
justified assumptions in GEM include average energy losses due to
friction between moving parts of a vehicle's powertrain; the logical
behavior of an average driver shifting from one transmission gear to
the next; ad speed limit assumptions such as 55 miles per hour for
urban highway driving and 65 miles per hour for rural interstate
highway driving. The sequence of the GEM vehicle simulation can be
visualized by imagining a human driver initially sitting in a parked
running tractor or vocational vehicle. The driver then proceeds to
drive the vehicle over a prescribed route that
[[Page 40177]]
includes three distinct patterns of driving: Stop-and-go city driving,
urban highway driving, and rural interstate highway driving. The driver
then exits the highway and brings the vehicle to a stop. This concludes
the vehicle simulation.
Over each of the three driving patterns or ``duty cycles,'' GEM
simulates the driver's behavior of pressing the accelerator, coasting,
or applying the brakes. GEM also simulates how the engine operates as
the gears in the vehicle's transmission are shifted and how the
vehicle's weight, aerodynamics, and tires resist the forward motion of
the vehicle. GEM combines the driver behavior over the duty cycles with
the various vehicle inputs and other assumptions to determine how much
fuel must be consumed to move the vehicle forward at each point during
the simulation. For each of the three duty cycles, GEM totals the
amount of fuel consumed and then divides that amount by the product of
the miles travelled and tons of payload carried. The tons of payload
carried are specified by the agencies for each vehicle type and weight
class. For each regulatory subcategory of tractor and vocational
vehicle (e.g., sleeper cab tractor, day cab tractor, small vocational
vehicle, large vocational vehicle, etc.), GEM applies prescribed
weighting factors to each of the three duty cycles to represent the
fraction of city, urban highway, and rural highway driving that would
be typical of each subcategory. After completing all the cycles, GEM
outputs a single composite result for the vehicle, expressed as both
fuel consumed in gallon per 1,000 ton-miles (for NHTSA standards) and
an equivalent amount of CO2 emitted in grams per ton-mile
(for EPA standards). These are the vehicle's GEM results that are used
along with other information to demonstrate the vehicle complies with
the applicable standards. This other information includes the annual
sales volume of the vehicle (family) simulated in GEM, plus information
on emissions credits that may be generated or used as part of that
vehicle family's certification.
While GEM is similar to other vehicle simulation computer programs,
GEM is also unique in a number of ways. First, GEM was designed
exclusively for regulated entities to certify tractor and vocational
vehicle chassis to the agencies' respective fuel consumption and
CO2 emissions standards. For GEM to be effective for this
purpose, the inputs to GEM include only information related to vehicle
components and attributes that significantly impact vehicle fuel
efficiency and CO2 emissions. For example, these include
vehicle aerodynamics, tire rolling resistance, and whether or not a
vehicle is equipped with lightweight materials, a tamper-proof speed
limiter, or tamper-proof idle reduction technologies. On the other
hand, other attributes such as those related to a vehicle's suspension,
frame strength, or interior features are not included, where these
might be included in other commercially available vehicle simulation
programs for other purposes. Furthermore, the simulated driver behavior
and the duty cycles cannot be changed in the GEM executable program.
This helps to ensure that all vehicles are simulated and certified in
the same way, but this does preclude GEM from being of much use as a
research tool for exploring the effects of driver behavior and of
different duty cycles.
To allow for public comment, GEM is available free of charge for
unlimited use, and the GEM source code is open source. That is, the
programming source code of GEM is freely available upon request for
anyone to examine, manipulate, and generally use without restriction.
In contrast commercially available vehicle simulation programs are
generally not free and open source. Additional details of GEM are
included in Chapter 4 of the RIA.
As part of Phase 1, the agencies conducted a peer review of GEM
version 1.0, which was the version released for the Phase 1
proposal.81 82 In response to this peer review and comments
from stakeholders, EPA has made changes to GEM. The current version of
GEM is v2.0.1, which is the version applicable for the Phase 1
standards.\83\
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\81\ See 76 FR 57146-57147.
\82\ U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. ``Peer Review of the
Greenhouse Gas Emissions Model (GEM) and EPA's Response to
Comments.'' EPA-420-R-11-007. Last access on November 24, 2014 at
https://www.epa.gov/otaq/climate/documents/420r11007.pdf.
\83\ See EPA's Web site at https://www.epa.gov/otaq/climate/gem.htm for the Phase 1 GEM revision dated May 2013, made to
accommodate a revision to 49 CFR 535.6(b)(3).
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(2) Phase 1 Engine Standards and Engine Test Procedure
For Phase 1 the agencies set separate engine fuel consumption and
CO2 standards for engines installed in tractors and
vocational vehicle chassis. EPA also set separate engine cap standards
for methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O)
emissions. These Phase 1 engine standards are specified in terms of
brake-specific (g/hp-hr) fuel, CO2, CH4 and
N2O emissions limits. For these separate engine standards,
the agencies adopted an engine dynamometer test procedure, which was
built substantially from EPA's existing heavy-duty engine emissions
test procedure. Since the test procedure already specified how to
measure fuel consumption, CO2 and CH4, few
changes were needed to employ the test procedure for purposes of the
Phase 1 standards. For Phase 1 the test procedure was modified to
specify how to measure N2O.
The duty cycles from EPA's existing heavy-duty emissions test
procedure were used in a somewhat unique way for Phase 1. In EPA's non-
GHG engine emissions standards, heavy-duty engines must meet brake-
specific standards for emissions of total oxides of nitrogen
(NOX), particulate mass (PM), non-methane hydrocarbon
(NMHC), and carbon monoxide (CO). These standards must be met by all
engines both over a 13-mode steady-state duty cycle called the
``Supplemental Emissions Test'' (SET) and over a composite of a cold-
start and a hot-start transient duty cycle called the ``Federal Test
Procedure'' (FTP). In contrast, for Phase 1 the agencies require that
engines specifically installed in tractors meet fuel efficiency and
CO2 standards over only the SET but not the FTP. This
requirement was intended to reflect that tractor engines typically
operate near steady-state conditions versus transient conditions. See
76 FR 57159. The agencies adopted the converse for engines installed in
vocational vehicles. That is, these engines must meet fuel efficiency
and CO2 standards over only the hot-start FTP but not the
SET. This requirement was intended to reflect that vocational vehicle
engines typically operate under transient conditions versus steady-
state conditions (76 FR 57178). For both tractor and vocational vehicle
engines in Phase 1, EPA set CH4 and N2O emissions
cap standards over the cold-start and hot-start FTP only and not over
the SET duty cycle. See Section II. D. for details on how we propose to
modify the engine test procedure for Phase 2.
B. Phase 2 Proposed Regulatory Structure
For Phase 2, the agencies are proposing to modify the regulatory
structure used for Phase 1. Note that we are not proposing to apply the
new Phase 2 regulatory structure for compliance with the Phase 1
standards. The structure used to demonstrate compliance with the Phase
1 standards will remain as finalized in the Phase 1 regulation. The
modifications we are proposing are consistent with the agencies' Phase
1 commitments to consider a range of regulatory approaches during the
development of
[[Page 40178]]
future regulatory efforts (76 FR 57133), especially for vehicles not
already subject to full vehicle chassis dynamometer testing. For
example, we committed to consider a more sophisticated approach to
vehicle testing to more completely capture the complex interactions
within the total vehicle, including the engine and powertrain
performance. We also intended to consider the potential for full
vehicle certification of complete tractors and vocational chassis using
a chassis dynamometer test procedure. We also considered chassis
dynamometer testing of complete tractors and vocational chassis as a
complementary approach for validating a more complex vehicle simulation
approach. We also committed to consider the potential for a regulatory
program for some of the trailers hauled by tractors. After considering
these various approaches, the agencies are proposing a structure in
which regulated tractor and vocational chassis manufacturers would
additionally enter engine and powertrain-related inputs into GEM, which
was not allowed in Phase 1.
For trailer manufacturers, which would be subject to first-time
standards under the proposal, we are also proposing GEM-based
certification. However, we are proposing a simplified structure that
would allow certification without the manufacturers actually running
GEM. More specifically, the agencies have developed a simple equation
that uses the same trailer inputs as GEM to represent the emission
impacts of aerodynamic improvements, tire improvements, and weight
reduction. As described in Chapter 2.10.6 of the draft RIA, these
equations have nearly perfect correlation with GEM so that they can be
used instead of GEM without impacting stringency.
We are proposing both required and optional test procedures to
provide these additional GEM inputs. We are also proposing to
significantly expand the number of technologies recognized in GEM.
Further, we are proposing to modify the GEM duty cycles and to further
subdivide the vocational vehicle subcategory to better represent real-
world vehicle operation. In contrast to these changes, we are proposing
to maintain essentially the same chassis dynamometer test procedure for
certifying complete heavy-duty pickups and vans.
(1) Other Structures Considered
To follow-up on the commitment to consider other approaches, the
agencies spent significant time and resources in evaluating six
different options for demonstrating compliance with the proposed Phase
2 standards. These six options include full vehicle chassis dynamometer
testing, full vehicle simulation, and vehicle simulation in combination
with powertrain testing, engine testing, engine electronic controller
and/or transmission electronic controller testing. The agencies
evaluated these options in terms of the capital investment required of
regulated manufacturers to conduct the testing and/or simulation, the
cost per test, the accuracy of the simulation, and the challenges of
validating the results. Other considerations included the
representativeness to the real world behavior, maintaining existing
Phase 1 certification approaches that are known to work well, enhancing
the Phase 1 approaches that could use improvements, the alignment of
test procedures for determining GHG and non-GHG emissions compliance,
and the potential to circumvent the intent of the test procedures.
Chassis dynamometer testing is used extensively in the development
and certification of light-duty vehicles. It also is used in Phase 1
for complete Class 2b/3 pickups and vans, as well as for certain
incomplete vehicles (at the manufacturer's option). The agencies
considered chassis dynamometer testing more broadly as a heavy-duty
fuel efficiency and GHG certification option because chassis
dynamometer testing has the ability to evaluate a vehicle's performance
in a manner that most closely resembles the vehicle's in-use
performance. Nearly all of the fuel efficiency technologies can be
evaluated on a chassis dynamometer, including the vehicle systems'
interactions that depend on the behavior of the engine, transmission,
and other vehicle electronic controllers. One challenge associated with
application of wide-spread heavy-duty chassis testing is the small
number of heavy-duty chassis test sites that are available in North
America. As discussed in draft RIA Chapter 3, the agencies were only
able to locate 11 heavy-duty chassis test sites. However, we have seen
an increased interest in building new sites since issuing the Phase 1
Final Rule. For example, EPA is currently building a heavy-duty chassis
dynamometer with the ability to test up to 80,000 pound vehicles at the
National Vehicle and Fuel Emissions Laboratory in Ann Arbor, Michigan.
Nevertheless, the agencies continue to be concerned about proposing
a chassis test procedure for certifying tractors or vocational chassis
due to the initial cost of a new test facility and the large number of
heavy duty tractor and vocational chassis variants that could require
testing. We have also concluded that for heavy-duty tractors and
vocational chassis, there can be increased test-to-test variability
under chassis dynamometer test conditions. First, the agencies
recognize that such testing requires expensive, specialized equipment
that is not widely available. The agencies estimate that it would vary
from about $1.3 to $4.0 million per new test site depending on existing
facilities.\84\ In addition, the large number of heavy-duty vehicle
configurations would require significant amounts of testing to cover
the sector. For example, for Phase 1 tractor manufacturers typically
certified several thousand variants of one single tractor model.
Finally, EPA's evaluation of heavy-duty chassis dynamometer testing has
shown that the variation of chassis test results is greater than light-
duty testing, up to 3 percent worse, based on our sponsored testing at
Southwest Research Institute.\85\ Although the agencies are not
proposing chassis dynamometer certification of tractors and vocational
chassis, we believe such an approach could be appropriate in the future
for some heavy duty vehicles if more test facilities become available
and if the agencies are able to address the large number of vehicle
variants that might require testing. We request comment on whether or
not a chassis dynamometer test procedure should be required in lieu of
the vehicle simulation approach we are proposing. Note, as discussed in
Section II. C. (4) (b) that we are also proposing a modest complete
tractor heavy-duty chassis dynamometer test program only for monitoring
complete tractor fuel efficiency trends over the implementation
timeframe of the Phase 1 and proposed Phase 2 standards.
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\84\ 03-19034 TASK 2 Report-Paper 03-Class8_hil_DRAFT, September
30, 2013.
\85\ GEM Validation, Technical Research Workshop, San Antonio,
December 10-11, 2014.
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Another option considered for certification involves testing a
vehicle's powertrain in a modified engine dynamometer test facility. In
this case the engine and transmission are installed in a laboratory
test facility and a dynamometer is connected to the output shaft of the
transmission. GEM or an equivalent vehicle simulation computer program
is then used to control the dynamometer to simulate vehicle speeds and
loads. The step-by-step test procedure considered for this option was
initially developed as an option for hybrid powertrain testing for
Phase 1. A key advantage of the powertrain test approach is that it
[[Page 40179]]
directly measures the effectiveness of the engine, the transmission,
and the integration of the two. Engines and transmissions are
particularly challenging to simulate within a computer program like GEM
because engines and transmissions installed in vehicles today are
actively and interactively controlled by their own sophisticated
electronic controls. These controls already contain essentially their
own vehicle simulation programs that GEM would then have to otherwise
simulate.
We believe that the capital investment impact for powertrain
testing on manufacturers could be manageable for those that already
have heavy-duty engine dynamometer test cells. We have found that in
general medium-duty powertrains can be tested in heavy-duty engine test
cells. EPA has successfully completed such a test facility conversion
at the National Vehicle and Fuel Emissions Laboratory in Ann Arbor,
Michigan. Southwest Research Institute (SwRI) in San Antonio, Texas has
completed a similar test cell conversion. Oak Ridge National Laboratory
in Oak Ridge, Tennessee recently completed construction of a new and
specialized heavy heavy-duty powertrain dynamometer facility. EPA also
contracted SwRI to evaluate North America's current capabilities for
powertrain testing in the heavy-duty sector and the cost of installing
a new powertrain cell that would meet agency requirements.\86\ Results
indicated that one supplier currently has this capability. We estimate
that the upgrade costs to an existing engine test facility are on the
order of $1.2 million, and a new test facility in an existing building
are on the order of $1.9 million. We also estimate that current
powertrain test cells that could be upgraded to measure CO2
emissions would cost approximately $600,000. For manufacturers or
suppliers wishing to contract out such testing, SwRI estimated that a
cost of $150,000 would provide about one month of powertrain testing
services. Once a powertrain test cell is fully operational, we estimate
that for a nominal powertrain family (i.e. one engine family tested
with one transmission family), the cost for powertrain installation,
testing, and data analysis would be $68,972.
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\86\ 03-19034 TASK 2 Report-Paper 03-Class8_hil_DRAFT, September
30, 2013.
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Since the Phase 1 Final Rule, the agencies and other stakeholders
have completed significant new work toward refining the powertrain test
procedure itself. The proposed regulations provide details of the
refined powertrain test procedure. See 40 CFR 1037.550.
Furthermore, the agencies have worked with key transmission
suppliers to develop an approach to define transmission families.
Coupled with the agencies existing definitions of engine families (40
CFR 1036.230 and 1037.230), we are proposing an approach to define a
powertrain family in 40 CFR 1037.231. We request comment on what key
attributes should be considered when defining a transmission family.
We believe that a combination of a robust powertrain family
definition, a refined powertrain test procedure and a refined GEM could
become an optimal certification path that leverages the accuracy of
powertrain testing along with the versatility of GEM, which alleviates
the need to test a large number of vehicle or powertrain variants. To
balance the potential advantages of this approach with the fact that it
has never been used for vehicle certification in the past, we are
proposing to allow this approach as an optional certification path, as
described in Section II.B.(2)(b). To be clear, we are not proposing to
require powertrain testing at this time, but because this testing would
recognize additional technologies that are not recognized directly in
GEM (even as proposed to be amended), we are factoring its use into our
stringency considerations for vocational chassis. We request comment on
whether the agencies should consider requiring powertrain testing more
broadly.
Another regulatory structure option considered was engine-only
testing over the GEM duty cycles over a range of simulated vehicle
configurations. This approach would use GEM to generate engine duty
cycles by simulating a range of transmissions and other vehicle
variations. These engine duty cycles then would be programmed into a
separate controller of a dynamometer connected to an engine's output
shaft. Unlike the chassis dynamometer or powertrain dynamometer
approaches, which could have significant test facility construction or
modification costs, this approach has little capital investment impact
on manufacturers because the majority already have engine test
facilities to both develop engines and to certify engines to meet both
the non-GHG standards and the Phase 1 fuel efficiency and GHG
standards. The agencies also have been investigating this approach as
an alternative way to generate data that could be used to represent an
engine in GEM. Because this approach captures engine performance under
transient conditions, this approach could be an improvement over our
proposed Phase 2 approach of representing an engine in GEM with only
steady-state operating data. Details of this alternative are described
in draft RIA. Because this approach is new and has never been used for
vehicle development or certification, we are not proposing requiring
its use as part of the Phase 2 certification process. However, we
encourage others to investigate this new approach in detail, and we
request comment on whether or not the agencies should replace our
proposed steady-state operation representation of the engine in GEM
with this alternative approach.
Additional certification options considered included simulating the
engine, transmission, and vehicle using a computer program while having
the actual transmission electronic controller connected to the computer
running the vehicle simulation program. The output of the simulation
would be an engine cycle that would be used to test the engine in an
engine test facility. Just as in the engine-only test procedure, this
procedure would not require significant capital investment in new test
facilities. An additional benefit of this approach would be that the
actual transmission controller would be determining the transmission
gear shift points during the test, without a transmission manufacturer
having to reveal their proprietary transmission control logic. This
approach comes with some technical challenges, however. The model would
have to become more complex and tailored to each transmission and
controller to make sure that the controller would operate properly when
it is connected to a computer instead of a transmission. Some examples
of the transmission specific requirements would be simulating all the
Controller Area Network (CAN) communication to and from the
transmission controller and the specific sensor responses both through
simulation and hardware. The vehicle manufacturer would have to be
responsible for connecting the transmission controller to the computer,
which would require a detailed verification process to ensure it is
operating properly. Determining full compliance with this test
procedure would be a significant challenge for the regulatory agencies
because the agencies would have to be able to replicate each of the
manufacturer's unique interfaces between the transmission controller
and computer running GEM.
Finally, the agencies considered full vehicle simulation plus
separate engine standards, which is the proposed
[[Page 40180]]
approach for Phase 2. These are discussed in more detail in the
following sections.
(2) Proposed Regulatory Structure
Under the proposed structure, tractor and vocational chassis
manufacturers would be required to provide engine, transmission, drive
axle(s) and tire radius inputs into GEM. For Phase 1, GEM used default
values for all of these, which limited the types of technologies that
could be recognized by GEM to show compliance with the standards. We
are proposing to significantly expand GEM to account for a wider range
of technological improvements that would otherwise need to be
recognized through some off-cycle crediting approach. These include
improvements to the driver controller (i.e., the simulation of the
driver), engines, transmissions, and axles. Additional technologies
that would now be recognized in GEM also include lightweight
thermoplastic materials, automatic tire inflation systems, advanced
cruise control systems, engine stop-start idle reduction systems, and
axle configurations that decrease the number of drive axles. The
agencies are also proposing to maintain separate engine standards. As
described below, we see advantages to having both engine-based and
vehicle-based standards. Moreover, the advantages described here for
full vehicle simulation do not necessarily correspond to disadvantages
for engine testing or vice versa.
(a) Advantages of Full Vehicle Simulation
The agencies' primary purpose in developing fuel efficiency and GHG
emissions standards is to increase the use of vehicle technologies that
improve fuel efficiency and decrease GHG emissions. Under the Phase 1
tractor and vocational chassis standards, there is no regulatory
incentive for manufacturers to adopt new engine, transmission or axle
technologies because GEM was not configured to recognize these
technologies uniquely. By recognizing such technologies in GEM under
Phase 2, the agencies would be creating a regulatory incentive to
improve engine, transmission, and axle technologies to improve fuel
efficiency and decrease GHG emissions. In its 2014 report, NAS also
recognized the benefits of full vehicle simulation and recommended that
Phase 2 incorporate such an approach.
We anticipate that the proposed Phase 2 approach would create three
new specific regulatory incentives. First, vehicle manufacturers would
have an incentive to use the most efficient engines. Since GEM would no
longer use the agency default engine in simulation manufacturers would
have their own more efficient engines recognized in GEM. Under Phase 1,
engine manufacturers have a regulatory incentive to design efficient
engines, but vehicle manufacturers do not have a similar regulatory
incentive to use efficient engines in their vehicles. Second, the
proposed approach would create incentives for both engine and vehicle
manufacturers to design engines and vehicles to work together to ensure
that engines actually operate as much as possible near their most
efficient points. This is because Phase 2 GEM would allow the vehicle
manufactures to use specific transmission, axle, and tire
characteristics as inputs, thus having the ability to directly
recognize many powertrain integration benefits, such as downspeeding,
and different transmission architectures and technologies, such as
automated manual transmissions, automatic transmissions,, and different
numbers of transmission gears, transmission gear ratios, axle ratios
and tire revolutions per mile. No matter how well designed, all engines
have speed and load operation points with differing fuel efficiency and
GHG emissions. The speed and load point with the best fuel efficiency
(i.e., peak thermal efficiency) is commonly known as the engine's
``sweet spot''. The more frequently an engine operates near its sweet
spot, the better the vehicle's fuel efficiency will be. In Phase 1, a
vehicle manufacturer receives no regulatory credit for designing its
vehicle to operate closer to the sweet spot because Phase 1 GEM does
not model the actual engine, transmission, axle, or tire revolutions
per mile. Third, the proposed approach would recognize improvements to
the overall efficiency of the drivetrain including the axle. The
proposed version of GEM would recognize the benefits of different axle
technologies including axle lubricants, and reducing axle losses such
as by enabling three-axle vehicles to deliver power to only one rear
axle through the proposed post-simulation adjustment approach (see
Chapter 4.5 of the Draft RIA).
In addition to providing regulatory incentives to use more fuel
efficient technologies, expanding GEM to recognize engine and other
powertrain component improvements would also provide important
flexibility to vehicle manufacturers. The flexibility to effectively
trade engine and other component improvements against other vehicle
improvements would allow vehicle manufacturers to better optimize their
vehicles to achieve the lowest cost for specific customers. Vehicle
manufacturers could use this flexibility to reduce overall compliance
costs and/or address special applications where certain vehicle
technologies are not practical. The agencies considered in Phase 1
allowing the exchange of emission certification credits generated
relative to the separate brake-specific (g/hp-hr) engine standards and
credits generated relative to the vehicle standards (g/ton-mile).
However, we did not allow this in Phase 1 due in part to concerns about
the equivalency of credits generated relative to different standards,
with different units of measure and different test procedures. The
proposed approach for Phase 2 would eliminate these concerns because
engine and other vehicle component improvements would be evaluated
relative to the same vehicle standard in GEM. This also means that
under the proposed Phase 2 approach there is no need to consider
allowing emissions credit trading between engine-generated and vehicle-
generated credits because vehicle manufacturers are directly credited
by the combination of engine and vehicle technologies they choose to
install in each vehicle. Therefore, this approach eliminates one of the
concerns about continuing separate engine standards, which was that a
separate engine standard and a full vehicle standard were somehow
mutually exclusive. That is not the case. In fact, in the next section
we describe how we propose to continue the separate engine standard
along with recognizing engine performance at the vehicle level. The
agencies acknowledge that maintaining a separate engine standard would
limit flexibility in cases where a vehicle manufacturer wanted to use
less efficient engines and make up for them using more efficient
vehicle technologies. However, as described below, we see important
advantages to maintaining a separate engine standard, and we believe
they more than justify the reduced flexibility.
There could be disadvantages to the proposed approach, however. As
is discussed in Section II.B.(2)(b), some of the disadvantages can be
addressed by maintaining separate engine standards, which we are
proposing to do. We request comment on other disadvantages such as
those discussed below.
One disadvantage of the proposed approach is that it would increase
complexity for the vehicle standards. For example, vehicle
manufacturers would be required to conduct additional engine tests and
track additional GEM
[[Page 40181]]
inputs for compliance purposes. However, we believe that most of the
burden associated with this increased complexity would be an infrequent
burden of engine testing and updating information systems to track
these inputs.
Because GEM measures performance over specific duty cycles intended
to represent average operation of vehicles in-use, the proposed
approach might also create an incentive to optimize powertrains and
drivetrains for the best GEM performance rather than the best in-use
performance for a particular application. This is always a concern when
selecting duty cycles for certification. There will always be
instances, however infrequent, where specific vehicle applications will
operate differently than the duty cycles used for certification. The
question is would these differences force manufacturers to optimize
vehicles to the certification duty cycles in a way that decreases fuel
efficiency and increases GHG emissions in-use? We believe that the
certification duty cycles would not prevent manufacturers from properly
optimizing vehicles for customer fuel efficiency. First, the impact of
the certification duty cycles would be relatively small because they
affect only a small fraction of all vehicle technologies. Second, the
emission averaging and fleet average provisions mean that the proposed
regulations would not require all vehicles to meet the standards.
Vehicles exceeding a standard over the duty cycles because they are
optimized for different in-use operation can be offset by other
vehicles that perform better over the certification duty cycles. Third,
vehicle manufacturers would also have the ability to lower such a
vehicle's measured GHG emissions by adding technology that would
improve fuel efficiency both over the certification duty cycles and in-
use. The proposed standards are not intended to be at a stringency
where manufacturers would be expected to apply all technologies to all
vehicles. Thus, there should be technologies available to add to
vehicle configurations that initially fail to meet the Phase 2 proposed
standards. Fourth, we are proposing further sub-categorization of the
vocational vehicle segment, tripling the number of subcategories within
this segment from 3 to 9. These 9 subcategories would divide each of
the 3 Phase 1 weight categories into 3 additional vehicle speed
categories. Each of the 3 speed categories would have unique duty cycle
weighting factors to recognize that different vocational chassis are
configured for different vehicle speed applications. Furthermore, we
are proposing 9 unique standards for each of the subcategories. This
further subdivision better recognizes technologies' performance under
the conditions for which the vocational chassis was configured to
operate. This further decreases the potential of the certification duty
cycles to encourage manufacturers to configure vocational chassis
differently than the optimum configuration for specific customers'
applications. Finally, as required by Section 202 (a) (1) and 202 (d)
of the CAA, EPA is proposing specific GHG standards which would have to
be met in-use.
One disadvantage of our proposed full vehicle simulation approach
is the potential requirement for engine manufacturers to disclose
otherwise proprietary information to vehicle manufacturers who install
their engines. Under the proposed approach, vehicle manufacturers would
need to know details about engine performance long before production,
both for compliance planning purposes, as well as for the actual
submission of applications for certification. Moreover, vehicle
manufacturers would need to know details about the engine's performance
that are generally not publicly available--specifically the detailed
fuel consumption of an engine over many steady-state operating points.
We request comment on whether or not such information could be used to
``reverse engineer'' intellectual property related to the proprietary
design of engines, and what steps the agencies could take to address
this.
The agencies also generally request comment on the advantages and
disadvantages of the proposed structure that would require vehicle
manufacturers to provide additional inputs into GEM to represent the
engine, transmission, drive axle(s), and loaded tire radius.
(b) Advantages of Separate Engine Standards
For engines installed in tractors and vocational vehicle chassis,
we are proposing to maintain separate engine standards for fuel
consumption and GHG emissions in Phase 2 for both SI and CI engines.
Moreover, we are proposing new more stringent engine standards for CI
engines. While the vehicle standards alone are intended to provide
sufficient incentive for improvements in engine efficiency, we continue
to see important advantages to maintaining separate engine standards
for both SI and CI engines. The agencies believe the advantages
described below are critical to fully achieve the goals of the NHTSA
and EPA standards.
First, EPA has a robust compliance program based on engine testing.
For the Phase 1 standards, we applied the existing criteria pollutant
compliance program to ensure that engine efficiency in actual use
reflected the improvements manufacturers claimed during certification.
With engine-based standards, it is straightforward to hold engine
manufacturers accountable by testing in-use engines. If the engines
exceed the standards, they can be required to correct the problem or
perform other remedial actions. Without separate engine standards in
Phase 2, addressing in-use compliance becomes more subjective. Having
clearly defined compliance responsibilities is important to both the
agencies and to the market.
Second, engine standards for CO2 and fuel efficiency
force engine manufacturers to optimize engines for both fuel efficiency
and control of non-CO2 emissions at the same engine
operating points. This is of special concern for NOX
emissions, given the strong counter-dependency between engine-out
NOX emissions and fuel consumption. By requiring engine
manufacturers to comply with both NOX and CO2
standards using the same test procedures, the agencies ensure that
manufacturers include technologies that can be optimized for both
rather than alternate calibrations that would trade NOX
emissions against fuel consumption depending how the engine or vehicle
is tested. In the past, when there was no CO2 engine
standard and no steady-state NOX standard, some
manufacturers chose this dual calibration approach instead of investing
in technology that would allow them to simultaneously reduce both
CO2 and NOX.
Third, engine fuel consumption can vary significantly between
transient operation and steady-state operation, and we are proposing
only steady-state engine operating data as the required engine input
into GEM for both tractor and vocational chassis certification. Because
vocational vehicles can spend significant operation under transient
engine operation, the separate engine standard for engines installed in
vocational vehicles is a transient test. Therefore, the separate engine
standard for vocational engines provides the only measure of engine
fuel consumption and CO2 emissions under transient
conditions. Without a transient engine test we would not be able to
ensure control of fuel consumption and CO2 emissions under
transient engine conditions.
[[Page 40182]]
It is worth noting that these first three advantages are also
beneficial for the marketplace. In these respects, the separate engine
standards allow each manufacturer to be confident that its competitors
are playing by the same rules. The agencies believe that the absence of
a separate engine standard would leave open the possibility that a
manufacturer might choose to cut corners with respect to in-use
compliance margins, the NOX-CO2 tradeoff, or
transient controls. Concerns that competitors might take advantage of
this can put a manufacturer in a difficult situation. On the other hand
knowing that the agencies are ensuring all manufacturers are complying
fully can eliminate these concerns.
Finally, the existence of meaningful separate engine standards
allows the agencies to exempt certain vehicles from some or all of the
vehicle standards and requirements without forgoing the engine
improvements. A good example of this is the off-road vehicle exemption
in 40 CFR 1037.631 and 49 CFR 535.3, which exempts vehicles ``intended
to be used extensively in off-road environments'' from the vehicle
requirements. The engines used in such vehicles must still meet the
engine standards of 40 CFR 1036.108 and 49 CFR 535.5(d). The agencies
see no reason why efficient engines cannot be used in such vehicles.
However, without separate engine standards, there would be no way to
require them to be efficient.
In the past there has been some confusion about the Phase 1
separate engine standards somehow preventing the recognition of engine-
vehicle optimization that vehicle manufacturers perform to minimize a
vehicle's overall fuel consumption. It was not the existence of
separate engine standards that prevented recognition of this
optimization. Rather it was that the agencies did not allow
manufacturers to enter inputs into GEM that characterized unique engine
performance. For Phase 2 we are proposing to require that manufacturers
input such data because we intend for GEM to recognize this engine-
vehicle optimization. The continuation of separate engine standards in
Phase 2 does not undermine in any way the recognition of this
optimization in GEM.
The agencies request comment on the advantages and disadvantages of
the proposal to maintain separate engine standards and to increase the
stringency of the CI engine standards. We would also welcome suggested
alternative approaches that would achieve the same goals. It is
important to emphasize that the agencies see the advantages of separate
engine standards as fundamental to the success of the program and do
not expect to adopt alternative approaches that fall short of these
goals.
Note that commenters opposing separate engine standards should also
be careful distinguish between concerns related to the stringency of
the proposed engine standards, from concerns inherent to any separate
engine standards whatsoever. When meeting with manufacturers prior to
this proposal, the agencies heard many concerns about the potential
problems with separate engines standards that were actually concerns
about separate engine standards that are too stringent. However, we see
these as two different issues. The agencies do recognize that setting
engine standards at a high stringency could increase the cost to comply
with the vehicle standard, if lower-cost vehicle technologies are
available. Additionally, the agencies recognize that setting engine
standards at a high stringency may promote the use of large-
displacement engines, which have inherent heat transfer and efficiency
advantages over smaller displacement engines over the engine test
cycles, though a smaller engine may be more efficient for a given
vehicle application. Thus we encourage commenters supporting the
separate engine standards to address the possibility of unintended
consequences such as these.
C. Proposed Vehicle Simulation Model--Phase 2 GEM 87
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\87\ The specific version of GEM used to develop the proposed
standards, and which we propose to use for compliance purposes is
also known as GEM 3.0.
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For tractors and vocational vehicle chassis, the agencies propose
that manufacturers would be required to meet vehicle-based standards,
and certification to these standards would be facilitated by the
required use of the vehicle simulation computer program called,
``Greenhouse gas Emissions Model'' or ``GEM.'' GEM was created for
Phase 1 for the exclusive purpose of certifying tractors and vocational
chassis. The agencies are proposing to modify GEM and to require
vehicle manufacturers to provide additional inputs into GEM to
represent the engine, transmission, drive axle(s), and loaded tire
radius. For Phase 1, GEM used agency default values for all of these
parameters. Under the proposed approach for Phase 2, vehicle
manufacturers would be able to use these technologies, plus additional
technologies to demonstrate compliance with the applicable standards.
The additional technologies include lightweight thermoplastic
materials, automatic tire inflation systems, advanced cruise control
systems, engine stop-start idle reduction systems, and axle
configurations that decrease the number of drive axles to comply with
the standards.
(1) Description of the Proposed Modifications to GEM
As explained above, GEM is a computer program that was originally
developed by EPA specifically for manufacturers to use to certify to
the Phase 1 tractor and vocational chassis standards. GEM
mathematically combines the results of vehicle component test
procedures with other vehicle attributes to determine a vehicle's
certified levels of fuel consumption and CO2 emissions. For
Phase 1 the required inputs to GEM include vehicle aerodynamics
information, tire rolling resistance, and whether or not a vehicle is
equipped with certain lightweight high-strength steel or aluminum
components, a tamper-proof speed limiter, or tamper-proof idle
reduction technologies for tractors. The vocational vehicle inputs to
GEM for Phase 1 only included tire rolling resistance. For Phase 1 the
GEM's inputs did not include engine test results or attributes related
to a vehicle's powertrain; namely, its transmission, drive axle(s), or
loaded tire radius. Instead, for Phase 1 the agencies specified a
generic engine and powertrain within GEM, and for Phase 1 these cannot
be changed in GEM.
For this proposal GEM has been modified and validated against a set
of experimental data that represents over 130 unique vehicle variants.
EPA believes this new version of GEM is an accurate and cost-effective
alternative to measuring fuel consumption and CO2 over a
chassis dynamometer test procedure. Some of the key proposed
modifications would necessitate required and optional vehicle component
test procedures to generate additional GEM inputs. The results of which
would provide additional inputs into GEM. These include a new required
engine test procedure to provide steady-state engine fuel consumption
and CO2 inputs into GEM. We are also seeking comment on a
newly developed engine test procedure that also captures transient
engine performance for use in GEM. We are proposing to require inputs
that describe the vehicle's transmission type, and its number of gears
and gear ratios. We are proposing an optional powertrain test procedure
that would provide inputs to override
[[Page 40183]]
the agencies' simulated engine and transmission in GEM. We are
proposing to require inputs that describe the vehicle's drive axle(s)
type (e.g., 6x4 or 6x2) and axle ratio. We are also seeking comment on
an optional axle efficiency test procedure to override the agencies'
simulated axle in GEM. We are proposing to significantly expand the
number of technologies that are recognized in GEM. These include
recognizing lightweight thermoplastic materials, automatic tire
inflation systems, advanced cruise control systems, engine stop-start
idle reduction systems, and axle configurations that decrease the
number of drive axles. We are seeking comment on recognizing (outside
of the GEM simulation) additional technologies such as high efficiency
glass and low global warming potential air conditioning refrigerants.
To better reflect real-world operation, we are also proposing to revise
the vehicle simulation computer program's urban and rural highway duty
cycles to include changes in road grade. We are seeking comment on
whether or not these duty cycles should also simulate driver behavior
in response to varying traffic patterns. We are proposing a new duty
cycle to capture the performance of technologies that reduce the amount
of time a vehicle's engine is at idle during a workday when the vehicle
is not moving. And to better recognize that vocational vehicle
powertrains are configured for particular applications, we are
proposing to further subdivide the vocational chassis category into
three different vehicle speed categories, where GEM weights the
individual duty cycles' results of each of the speed categories
differently. Section 4.2 of the RIA details all these modifications.
This section briefly describes some of the key proposed modifications
to GEM.
(a) Simulating Engines for Vehicle Certification
Before describing the proposed approach for Phase 2, this section
first reviews how engines are simulated for vehicle certification in
Phase 1. GEM for Phase 1 simulates the same generic engine for any
vehicle in a given regulatory subcategory with a data table of steady-
state engine fuel consumption mass rates (g/s) versus a series of
steady-state engine output shaft speeds (revolutions per minute, rpm)
and loads (torque, N-m). This data table is also sometimes called a
``fuel map'' or an ``engine map'', although the term ``engine map'' can
mean other kinds of data in different contexts. The engine speeds in
this map range from idle to maximum governed speed and the loads range
from engine motoring (negative load) to the maximum load of an engine.
When GEM runs over a vehicle duty cycle, this data table is linearly
interpolated to find a corresponding fuel consumption mass rate at each
engine speed and load that is demanded by the simulated vehicle
operating over the duty cycle. The fuel consumption mass rate of the
engine is then integrated over each duty cycle in GEM to arrive at the
total mass of fuel consumed for the specific vehicle and duty cycle.
Under Phase 1, manufacturers were not allowed to input their own engine
fuel maps to represent their specific engines in the vehicle being
simulated in GEM. Because GEM was programmed with fixed engine fuel
maps for Phase 1 that all manufacturers had to use, interpolation of
the tables themselves over each of the three different GEM duty cycles
did not have to closely represent how an actual engine might operate
over these three different duty cycles.
In contrast, for Phase 2 we are proposing a new and required
steady-state engine dynamometer test procedure for manufacturers to use
to generate their own engine fuel maps to represent each of their
engine families in GEM. The proposed Phase 2 approach is consistent
with the 2014 NAS Phase 2 First Report recommendation.\88\ To validate
this approach we compared the results from 28 individual engine
dynamometer tests. Three different engines were used to generate this
data, and these engines were produced by two different engine
manufacturers. One engine was tested at three different power ratings
(13 liters at 410, 450 & 475 hp) and one engine was tested at two
ratings (6.7 liters at 240 and 300 hp), and other engine with one
rating (15 liters 455 hp) service classes. For each engine and rating
our proposed steady-state engine dynamometer test procedure was
conducted to generate an engine fuel map to represent that particular
engine in GEM. Next, with GEM we simulated various vehicles in which
the engine could be installed. For each of the GEM duty cycles we are
proposing, namely the urban local (ARB Transient), urban highway with
road grade (55 mph), and rural highway with road grade (65 mph) duty
cycles, we determined the GEM result for each vehicle configuration,
and we saved the engine output shaft speed and torque information that
GEM created to interpolate the steady-state engine map for each vehicle
configuration. We then had this same engine output shaft speed and
torque information programmed into an engine dynamometer controller,
and we had each engine perform the same duty cycles that GEM demanded
of the simulated version of the engine. We then compared the GEM
results based on GEM's linear interpolation of the engine maps to the
measured engine dynamometer results. We concluded that for the 55 mph
and 65 mph duty cycles, GEM's interpolation of the steady-state data
tables was sufficiently accurate versus the measured results. This is
an outcome one would reasonably expect because even with changes in
road grade, the 55 mph and 65 mph duty cycles do not demand rapid
changes in engine speed or load. The 55 mph and 65 mph duty cycles are
nearly steady-state, as far as engine operation is concerned, just like
the engine maps themselves. However, for the ARB Transient cycle, we
observed a consistent bias, where GEM consistently under-predicted fuel
consumption and CO2 emissions. This low bias over the 28
engine tests ranged from 4.2 percent low to 7.8 percent low. The mean
was 5.9 percent low and the 90th percentile value was 7.1 percent low.
These observations are consistent with the fact that engines generally
operate less efficiently under transient conditions than under steady-
state conditions.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\88\ National Academy of Science. ``Reducing the Fuel
Consumption and GHG Emissions of Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicles,
Phase Two, First Report.'' 2014. Recommendation 3.8.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
A number of reasons explain this consistent trend. For example,
under rapidly changing engine conditions, it is generally more
challenging to program an engine electronic controller to respond with
optimum fuel injection rate and timing, exhaust gas recirculation valve
position, variable nozzle turbo-charger vane position and other set
points than it is to do so under steady-state conditions. Transient
heat and mass transfer within the intake, exhaust, and combustion
chambers also tend to increase turbulence and enhance energy loss to
engine coolant during transient operation. Furthermore, because exhaust
emissions control is more challenging under transient engine operation,
engineering tradeoffs sometimes need to be made between fuel efficiency
and transient emissions control. Special calibrations are typically
also required to control smoke and manage exhaust temperatures during
transient operation for a transient cycle. We are confident that this
low bias in GEM would continue to exist well into the future if we were
to test additional engines. However, with the range of the results that
we have generated so far we are somewhat less confident in proposing a
single numerical value to correct for this effect
[[Page 40184]]
over the ARB Transient duty cycle. Based on the data we have collected
so far, we are conservatively proposing to apply a 5.0 percent
correction factor to GEM's ARB Transient results. Note that adjustment
would be applied internal to GEM, and no manufacturer input or action
would be needed. This means that for GEM fuel consumption and
CO2 emissions results that were generated using the steady-
state engine map representation of an engine in GEM, a 1.05 multiplier
would be applied to only the ARB Transient result. If a manufacturer
chooses to perform the optional powertrain test procedure we are
proposing, then this 1.05 multiplier to the ARB Transient would not
apply (since we know of no bias in that optional powertrain test). For
the same reason, if we were to replace the proposed steady-state engine
map in GEM with the alternative approach detailed in draft RIA, then
this 1.05 multiplier would not apply. We request comment on whether or
not this single value multiplier is an appropriate way to correct
between steady-state and transient engine fuel consumption and
CO2 emissions, specifically over the ARB Transient duty
cycle. We also request comment on the magnitude of the multiplier
itself. For example, for the proposal we have chosen a 1.05 multiplier
correction value because it is conservative but still near the mean
bias we observed. However, for the tests we have conducted on current
technology engines, a 1.05 multiplier would mean that about one half of
these engines would be penalized by powertrain testing (or if we
utilized the alternative engine approach) because the actual measured
transient impact would be slightly higher than 5 percent. While these
tests were performed on current technology powertrains rather than the
kind of optimized powertrains we project for Phase 2, these results
raise still some concerns for us. Because we intend to incentivize
powertrain testing and not penalize it, and because we also encourage
constructive comments on the alternative approach, we also request
comment on increasing the magnitude of this ARB Transient multiplier
toward the higher end of the biases we observed. For example, we
request comment on increasing the proposed multiplier from 1.05 to
1.07, which is close to the 90th percentile of the results we have
collected so far. Using this higher multiplier would imply that only
about 10 percent of engines powertrain tested or tested under the
alternative approach would show worse fuel consumption over the ARB
Transient than its respective representation in a steady-state data
table in GEM. This would mean that the remaining 90 percent of engines
powertrain tested would receive additional credit in GEM. Using 1.07
would essentially guarantee that any powertrain that was significantly
more efficient than current powertrains would receive meaningful credit
for the improvement. However, this value would also provide credits for
many current powertrain designs.
We also request comment as to whether or not there might be certain
vehicle sub-categories or certain small volume vocational chassis,
where using the Phase 1 approach of using a generic engine table might
be more appropriate. We also request comment as to whether or not the
agencies should provide default generic engine maps in GEM for Phase 2
and allow manufacturers to optionally override these generic maps with
their own maps, which would be generated according to our proposed
engine dynamometer steady-state test procedure.
(b) Simulating Human Driver Behavior and Transmissions for Vehicle
Certification
GEM for Phase 1 simulates the same generic human driver behavior
and manual transmission for all vehicles. The simulated driver responds
to changes in the target vehicle speed of the duty cycles by changing
the simulated positions of the vehicle's accelerator pedal, brake
pedal, clutch pedal, and gear shift lever. For simplicity in Phase 1
the GEM driver shifted at ideal points for maximum fuel efficiency and
the manual transmission was simulated as an ideal transmission that did
not have any delay time (i.e., torque interruption) between gear shifts
and did not have any energy losses associated with clutch slip during
gear shifts.
In GEM for Phase 2 we are proposing to allow manufacturers to
select one of three types of transmissions to represent the
transmission in the vehicle they are certifying: manual transmission,
automated manual transmission, and automatic transmission. We are
currently in the process of developing a dual-clutch transmission type
in GEM, but we are not proposing to allow its use in Phase 2 at this
time. Because production of heavy-duty dual clutch transmissions has
only begun in the past few months, we do not yet have any experimental
data to validate our GEM simulation of this transmission type.
Therefore, we are requesting comment on whether or not there is
additional data available for such validation. Should such data be
provided in comments, we may finalize GEM for Phase 2 with a fourth
transmission types for dual clutch transmissions. We are also
considering an option to address dual clutch transmissions through a
post-simulation adjustment as discussed in Chapter 4 of the draft RIA.
In the proposed modifications to GEM, the driver behavior and the
three different transmission types are simulated in the same basic
manner as in Phase 1, but each transmission type features a unique
combination of driver behavior and transmission responses that match
both the driver behavior and the transmission responses we measured
during vehicle testing of these three transmission types. In general
the transmission gear shifting strategy for all of the transmissions is
designed to shift the transmission so that it is always in the most
efficient gear for the current vehicle demand, while staying within
certain limits to prevent unrealistically high frequency shifting. Some
examples of these limits are torque reserve limits (which vary as
function of engine speed), minimum time-in-gear and minimum fuel
efficiency benefit to shift to the next gear. Some of the differences
between the three transmission types include a driver ``double-
clutching'' during gear shifts of the manual transmission only, and
``power shifts'' and torque converter torque multiplication, slip, and
lock-up in automatic transmissions only. Refer to Chapter 4 of the
draft RIA for a more detailed description of these different simulated
driver behaviors and transmission types.
We considered an alternative approach where transmission
manufacturers would provide vehicle manufacturers with detailed
information about their automated transmissions' proprietary shift
strategies for representation in GEM. NAS also recommended this
approach.\89\ The advantages of this approach include a more realistic
representation of a transmission in GEM and potentially the recognition
of additional fuel efficiency improving strategies to achieve
additional fuel consumption and CO2 emissions reductions.
However, there are a number of technical and policy disadvantages of
this approach. One disadvantage is that it would require the
[[Page 40185]]
disclosure of proprietary information between competing companies
because some vehicle manufacturers produce their own transmissions and
also use other suppliers' transmissions. There are technical challenges
too. For example, some transmission manufacturers have upwards of 40
different shift strategies programmed into their transmission
controllers. Depending on in-use driving conditions, some of which are
not simulated in GEM (e.g., changing payloads, changing tire traction)
a transmission controller can change its shift strategy. Representing
dynamic switching between multiple proprietary shift strategies would
be extremely complex to simulate in GEM. Furthermore, if the agencies
were to propose requiring transmission manufacturers to provide shift
strategy inputs for use in GEM, then the agencies would have to devise
a compliance strategy to monitor in-use shift strategies, including a
driver behavior model that could be implemented as part of an in-use
shift strategy test. This too would be very complex. If manufacturers
were subject to in-use compliance requirements of their transmission
shift strategies, this could lead to restricting the use of certain
shift strategies in the heavy-duty sector, which would in turn
potentially lead to sub-optimal vehicle configurations that do not
improve fuel efficiency or adequately serve the wide range of customer
needs; especially in the vocational vehicle segment. For example, if
the agencies were to restrict the use of more aggressive and less fuel
efficient in-use shift strategies that are used only under heavy loads
and steep grades, then certain vehicle applications would need to
compensate for this loss of capability through the installation of
over-sized and over-powered engines that are subsequently poorly
matched and less efficient under lighter load conditions. Therefore, as
a policy consideration to preserve vehicle configuration choice and to
preserve the full capability of heavy-duty vehicles today, the agencies
are intentionally not requiring transmission manufacturers to submit
detailed proprietary shift strategy information to vehicle
manufacturers to input into GEM. This is not unlike Phase 1, where
unique transmission and axle attributes were not recognized at all in
GEM. Instead, the agencies are proposing that vehicle manufacturers
choose from among the three transmission types that the agencies have
already developed, validated, and programmed into GEM. The vehicle
manufacturers would then enter into GEM their particular transmission's
number of gears and gear ratios. The agencies recognize that designing
GEM like this would exclude a potentially significant reduction from
the GEM simulation. However, if a manufacturer chooses to use the
optional powertrain test procedure, then the agencies' transmission
types in GEM would be overridden by the actual data collected during
the powertrain test, which would recognize the actual benefit of the
transmission. Note that the optional powertrain test procedure is only
advantageous to a vehicle manufacturer if an actual transmission is
more efficient and has a superior shift strategy compared to its
respective transmission type simulated in GEM.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\89\ Transportation Research Board 2014. ``Reducing the Fuel
Consumption and Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Medium- and Heavy-Duty
Vehicles, Phase Two.'' (``Phase 2 First Report'') Washington, DC,
The National Academies Press. Cooperative Agreement DTNH22-12-00389.
Available electronically from the National Academy Press Web site at
https://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=12845 (last accessed
December 2, 2014). Recommendation 3.7.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
(c) Simulating Axles for Vehicle Certification
In GEM for Phase 1 the axle ratio of the primary drive axle and the
energy losses assumed in the simulated axle itself were the same for
all vehicles. For Phase 2 we are proposing that the vehicle
manufacturer input into GEM the axle ratio of the primary drive axle.
This input would recognize the intent to operate the engine at a
particular engine speed when the transmission is operating in its
highest transmission gear; especially for the 55 mph and 65 mph duty
cycles in GEM. This input facilitates GEM's recognition of vehicle
designs that take advantage of operating the engine at the lowest
possible engine speeds. This is commonly known as ``engine down-
speeding'', and the general rule-of-thumb for heavy-duty engines is
that for every 100 rpm decrease in engine speed, there can be about a 1
percent decrease in fuel consumption and CO2 emissions.
Therefore, it is important that GEM allow this value to be input by the
vehicle manufacturer. Axle ratio is also straightforward to verify
during any in-use compliance audit.
We are proposing a fixed axle ratio energy efficiency of 95.5
percent at all speeds and loads, but are requesting comment on whether
this pre-specified efficiency is reasonable. However, we know that this
efficiency actually varies as a function of axle speed and axle input
torque. Therefore, as an exploratory test we have created a modified
version of GEM that has as an input a data table of axle efficiency as
a function of axle speed and axle torque. The modified version of GEM
subsequently interpolates this table over each of the duty cycles to
represent a more realistic axle efficiency at each point of each duty
cycle. We have also created a draft axle ratio efficiency test
procedure that requires the use of a dynamometer test facility. This
procedure includes the use of a baseline fuel-efficient synthetic gear
lubricant manufactured by BASF.\90\ This baseline will be used to gauge
improvements in axle design and lubricants. The draft test procedure
includes initial feedback that we have received from axle manufacturers
and our own engineering judgment. Refer to 40 CFR 1037.560 of the Phase
2 proposed regulations, which contain this draft test procedure. This
test procedure could be used to generate the results needed to create
the axle efficiency data table for input into GEM. However, the
agencies have not yet conducted experimental tests of axles using this
draft test procedure so we are reluctant to propose this test procedure
as either mandatory or even optional at this time. Rather we request
comment as to whether or not we should finalize this test procedure and
either require its use or allow its use optionally to determine an axle
efficiency data table as an input to GEM, which would override the
fixed axle efficiency we are proposing at this time. We also request
comment on improving or otherwise refining the test procedure itself.
Note that the agencies believe that allowing the GEM default axle
efficiency to be replaced by manufacturer inputs only makes sense if
the manufacturer inputs is are the results of a specified test
procedure that we could verify by our own independent testing of the
axle.
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\90\ BASF TI/EVO 0137 e, Emgard[supreg] FE 75W-90 Fuel Efficient
Synthetic Gear Lubricant.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
In addition to proposing to require the primary drive axle ratio
input into GEM (and potentially an option to input an actual axle
efficiency data table), we are also proposing that the vehicle
manufacturer input into GEM whether or not one or two drive axles are
driven by the engine. When a heavy-duty vehicle is equipped with two
rear axles where both are driven by the engine, this is called a
``6x4'' configuration. ``6'' refers to the total number of wheel hubs
on the vehicle. In the 6x4 configuration there are two front wheel hubs
for the two steer wheels and tires plus four rear wheel hubs for the
four rear wheels and tires (or more commonly four sets of rear dual
wheels and tires). ``4'' refers to the number of wheel hubs driven by
the engine. These are the two rear axles that have two wheel hubs each.
Compared to a 6x4 configuration a 6x2 configuration decreases axle
energy loss due to friction and oil pumping in two driven axles, by
driving only one axle. The decrease in fuel consumption and
CO2 emissions associated with a 6x2 versus 6x4 axle
configuration is estimated to be
[[Page 40186]]
2.5 percent.\91\ Therefore, in the proposed Phase 2 version of GEM, if
a manufacturer simulates a 6x2 axle configuration, GEM decreases the
overall GEM result by 2.5 percent. Note that GEM will similarly
decrease the overall GEM result by 2.5 percent for a 4x2 tractor or
Class 8 vocational chassis configuration if it has only two wheel hubs
driven. Note that we are not proposing that GEM have an option to
increase the overall GEM result by some percentage by selecting, say, a
6x6 or 8x8 option if the front axle(s) are driven. Because these
configurations are only manufactured for specialized vehicles that
require extra traction for off-road applications, they are very low
volume sales and their increased fuel consumption and CO2
emissions are not significant in comparison to the overall reductions
of the proposed Phase 2 program. Note that 40 CFR 1037.631 (for off-
road vocational vehicles), which is being continued from the Phase 1
program, would likely exempt many of these vehicles from the vehicle
standards.
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\91\ NACFE. Executive Report--6x2 (Dead Axle) Tractors. November
2010. See Docket EPA-HQ-OAR-2014-0827.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Instead of directly modeling 6x4 or 6x2 axle configuration, we are
proposing use of a post-simulation adjustment approach discussed in
Chapter 4 of the drat RIA to model benefits of different axle
configuration.
(d) Simulating Accessories for Vehicle Certification
Phase 1 GEM uses a fixed power consumption value to simulate the
fuel consumed for powering accessories such as power steering pumps and
alternators. While the agencies are not proposing any changes to this
approach for Phase 2, we are requesting comment on whether or not we
should allow some manufacturer input to reflect the installation of
accessory components that result in lower accessory loads. For example,
we could consider an accessory load reduction GEM input based on
installing a number of qualifying advanced accessory components that
could be in production during Phase 2. We request comment on
identifying such advanced accessory components, and we request comment
on defining these components in such a way that they can be
unambiguously distinguished from other similar components that do not
decrease accessory loads. We also request comment on how much of a
decrease in accessory load should be programmed into GEM if qualifying
advanced accessory components are installed.
(e) Aerodynamics for Tractor, Vocational Vehicle, and Trailer
Certification
For GEM in Phase 2 the agencies propose to simulate aerodynamic
drag in largely the same manner as in Phase 1. For vocational chassis
we propose to continue to use the same prescribed products of drag
coefficient times vehicle frontal area (Cd*A) that were predefined for
each of the vocational subcategories in Phase 1. For tractors we
propose to continue to use an aerodynamic bin approach similar to the
one that exists in Phase 1 today. This approach requires tractor
manufacturers to conduct a certain amount of coast-down vehicle
testing, although manufacturers have the option to conduct scaled wind
tunnel testing and/or computational fluid dynamics modeling. The
results of these tests determine into which bin a vehicle is assigned.
Then in GEM the aerodynamic drag coefficient for each vehicle in the
same bin is the same. This approach helps to account for limits in the
repeatability of aerodynamic testing and it creates a compliance margin
since any test result which keeps the vehicle in the same aerodynamic
bin is considered compliant. However, for Phase 2 we are proposing new
boundary values for the bins themselves and we are adding two
additional bins in order to recognize further advances in aerodynamic
drag reduction beyond what was recognized in Phase 1. Furthermore,
while Phase 1 GEM used predefined frontal areas for tractors while the
manufacturers input a Cd value, the agencies propose that manufacturers
would use a measured drag area (CdA) value for each tractor
configuration for Phase 2. See 40 CFR 1037.525.
In addition to these proposed changes we are proposing a number of
aerodynamic drag test procedure improvements. One proposed improvement
is to update the so-called standard trailer that is prescribed for use
during aerodynamic drag testing of a tractor--that is, the hypothetical
trailer modeled in GEM to represent a trailer paired with the tractor
in actual use. In Phase 1 a non-aerodynamic 53-foot long box-shaped dry
van trailer was specified as the standard trailer for tractor
aerodynamic testing (see 40 CFR 1037.501(g)). For Phase 2 we are
proposing to modify this standard trailer for tractor testing to make
it more similar to the trailers we would require to be produced during
the Phase 2 timeframe. More specifically, we would prescribe the
installation of aerodynamic trailer skirts (and low rolling resistance
tires as applied in Phase 1) on the reference trailer, as discussed in
further in Section III.E.2. As explained more fully in Sections III and
IV below, the agencies believe that tractor-trailer pairings will be
optimized aerodynamically to a significant extent in-use (such as using
high-roof cabs when pulling box trailers), and that this real-world
optimization should be reflected in the certification testing. We also
request comment on whether or not the Phase 2 standard trailer should
include the installation of other aerodynamic devices such as a nose
fairing, an under tray, or a boat tail or trailer tail. Would a
standard trailer including these additional components make the tractor
program better?
Another proposed aerodynamic test procedure improvement is intended
to better account for average wind yaw angle to better reflect the true
impact of aerodynamic features on the in-use fuel consumption and
CO2 emissions of tractors. Refer to the proposed test
procedures in 40 CFR 1037.525 for further details of these aerodynamic
test procedures.
For trailer certification, the agencies are proposing to use GEM in
a different way than GEM is used for tractor certification in Phase 1
and Phase 2. As described in Section IV, the proposed trailer standards
are based on GEM simulation, but trailer manufacturers would not run
GEM for certification. Instead, manufacturers would use a simple
equation to replicate GEM performance from the inputs. As with GEM, the
only technologies recognized by this GEM-based equation for trailer
certification are aerodynamic technologies, tire technologies
(including tire rolling resistance and automatic tire inflation
systems), and some weight reduction technologies. Note that since the
purpose of this equation is to measure GEM performance, it can be
considered as simply another form of the model using a different input
interface. Thus, for simplicity, the remainder of this Section II. C.
sometimes discusses GEM as being used for trailers, without regard to
how manufacturers will actually input GEM variables.
Similar to tractor certification, we propose that trailer
manufacturers may at their option conduct some amount of aerodynamic
testing (e.g., coast-down testing, scale wind tunnel testing,
computational fluid dynamics modeling, or possibly aerodynamic
component testing) and use this information with the equation.\92\ In
this
[[Page 40187]]
case the agencies propose the configuration of a reference tractor for
conducting trailer testing. Refer to Section IV of this preamble and to
40 CFR 1037.501 of the proposed regulations for details on the proposed
reference tractor configuration for trailer test procedures.
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\92\ The agencies project that more than enough aerodynamic
component vendors would take advantage of proposed optional pre-
approval process to make trailer manufacturer testing optional.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
(f) Tires and Tire Inflation Systems for Truck and Trailer
Certification
For GEM in Phase 1 vehicle manufacturers input the tire rolling
resistance of steer and drive tires directly into GEM. The agencies
prescribed an internationally recognized tire rolling resistance test
procedure, ISO 28580, for determining the tire rolling resistance value
that is input into GEM, as described in 40 CFR 1037.520(c). For Phase 2
we are proposing to continue this same approach and the use of ISO
28580, and we propose to expand these requirements to trailer tires as
well. We request comment on whether specific modifications to this test
procedure would improve its accuracy, repeatability or its test lab to
test lab variability.
In addition to tire rolling resistance, we are proposing that for
Phase 2 vehicle manufacturers enter into GEM the tire manufacturer's
specified tire loaded radius for the vehicle's drive tires. This value
is commonly reported by tire manufacturers already so that vehicle
speedometers can be adjusted appropriately. This input value is needed
so that GEM can accurately convert simulated vehicle speed into axle
speed, transmission speed, and ultimately engine speed. We request
comment on whether the proposed test procedure should be modified to
measure the tire's revolutions per distance directly, as opposed to
using the loaded radius to calculate the drive axle rotational speed
from vehicle speed.
For tractors and trailers, we propose to allow manufacturers to
specify whether or not an automatic tire inflation system is installed.
If one is installed, GEM, or in the case of trailers, the equations
based on GEM, would assign a 1 percent decrease in the overall fuel
consumption and CO2 emissions simulation results for
tractors, and a 1.5 percent decrease for trailers. This would be done
through post-simulation adjustments discussed in Chapter 4 of the draft
RIA. In contrast, we are not proposing to assign any decrease in fuel
consumption and CO2 emissions for tire pressure monitoring
systems. We do recognize that some drivers would respond to a warning
indication from a tire pressure monitoring system, but we are unsure
how to assign a fixed decrease in fuel consumption and CO2
emissions for tire pressure monitoring systems. We would estimate that
the value would be less than any value we would assign for an automatic
tire inflation system. We request comment on whether or not we should
assign a fixed decrease in fuel consumption and CO2
emissions for tire pressure monitoring systems, and if so, we request
comment on what would be an appropriate assigned fixed value.
(g) Weight Reduction for Tractor, Vocational Chassis and Trailer
Certification
We propose for Phase 2 that GEM continues the weight reduction
recognition approach in Phase 1, where the agencies prescribe fixed
weight reductions, or ``deltas'', for using certain lightweight
materials for certain vehicle components. In Phase 1 the agencies
published a list of weight reductions for using high-strength steel and
aluminum materials on a part by part basis. For Phase 2 we propose to
use these same values for high-strength steel and aluminum parts for
tractors and for trailers and we have scaled these values for use in
certifying the different weight classes of vocational chassis. In
addition we are proposing a similar part by part weight reduction list
for tractor parts made from thermoplastic material. We are also
proposing to assign a fixed weight increase to natural gas fueled
vehicles to reflect the weight increase of natural gas fuel tanks
versus gasoline or diesel tanks. This increase would be allocated
partly to the chassis and from the payload using the same allocation as
weight reductions for the given vehicle type. For tractors we are
proposing to continue the same mathematical approach in GEM to assign
1/3 of a total weight decrease to a payload increase and 2/3 of the
total weight decrease to a vehicle mass decrease. For Phase 1 these
ratios were based on the average frequency that a tractor operates at
its gross combined weight rating. Therefore, we propose to use these
ratios for trailers in Phase 2. However, as with the other fuel
consumption and GHG reducing technologies manufacturers use for
compliance, reductions associated with weight reduction would be
calculated using the trailer compliance equation rather than GEM. For
vocational chassis, for which Phase 1 did not address weight reduction,
we propose a 50/50 ratio. In other words, for vocational chassis in GEM
we propose to assign 1/2 of a total weight decrease to a payload
increase and 1/2 of the total weight decrease to a vehicle mass
decrease. We request comment on all aspects of applying weight
reductions in GEM, including proposed weight increases for alternate
fuel vehicles and whether a 50/50 ratio is appropriate for vocational
chassis.
(h) GEM Duty Cycles for Tractor, Vocational Chassis and Trailer
Certification
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\93\ SwRI road grade testing and GEM validation report, 2014.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
In Phase 1, there are three GEM vehicle duty cycles that
represented stop-and-go city driving (ARB Transient), urban highway
driving (55 mph), and rural interstate highway driving (65 mph). In
Phase 1 these cycles were time-based. That is, they were specified as a
function of simulated time and the duty cycles ended once the specified
time elapsed in simulation. The agencies propose to use these three
drive cycles in Phase 2, but with some revisions. First the agencies
propose that GEM would simulate these cycles on a distance-based
specification, rather than on a time-based specification. A distance-
based specification ensures that even if a vehicle in simulation does
not always achieve the target vehicle speed, the vehicle will have to
continue in simulation for a longer period of time to complete the duty
cycle. This ensures that vehicles are evaluated over the complete
distance of the duty cycle and not just the portion of the duty cycle
that a vehicle completes in a given time period. A distance-based duty
cycle specification also facilitates a straightforward specification of
road grade as a function of distance along the duty cycle. For Phase 2
the agencies are proposing to enhance the 55 mph and 65 mph duty cycles
by adding representative road grade to exercise the simulated vehicle's
engine, transmission, axle, and tires in a more realistic way. A flat
road grade profile over a constant speed test does not present many
opportunities for a transmission to shift gears, and may have the
unintended consequence of enabling underpowered vehicles or excessively
downsped drivetrains to generate credits. The road grade profile
proposed is the same for both the 55 mph and 65 mph duty cycles, and
the profile was based on real over-the-road testing the agencies
directed under an agency-funded contract with Southwest Research
Institute.\93\ See Section III.E for more details on development of the
proposed road grade profile. The agencies are continuing to evaluate
[[Page 40188]]
alternate road grade profiles including actual sections of restricted
access highway with road grades that are statistically similar to the
national road grade profile as well as purely synthetic road grade
profiles.\94\ We request comments on the proposed road grade profile,
and would welcome additional statistical evaluations of this road grade
profile and other road grade profiles for comparison. We believe that
the enhancement of the 55 mph and 65 mph duty cycles with road grade is
consistent with the NAS recommendation regarding road grade.\95\
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\94\ See National Renewable Energy Laboratory report ``EPA GHG
Certification of Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicles: Development of
Road Grade Profiles Representative of US Controlled Access
Highways'' dated May 2015 and EPA memorandum ``Development of an
Alternative, Nationally Representative, Activity Weighted Road Grade
Profile for Use in EPA GHG Certification of Medium- and Heavy-Duty
Vehicles'' dated May 13, 2015, both available in Docket EPA-HQ-OAR-
2014-0827. This docket also includes file
NREL_SyntheticAndLocalGradeProfiles.xlsx which contains numerical
representations of all road grade profiles described in the NREL
report.
\95\ NAS 2010 Report. Page 189. ``A fundamental concern raised
by the committee and those who testified during our public sessions
was the tension between the need to set a uniform test cycle for
regulatory purposes, and existing industry practices of seeking to
minimize the fuel consumption of medium and heavy-duty vehicles
designed for specific routes that may include grades, loads, work
tasks or speeds inconsistent with the regulatory test cycle. This
highlights the critical importance of achieving fidelity between
certification values and real-world results to avoid decisions that
hurt rather than help real-world fuel consumption.''
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We recognize that even with the proposed road grade profile, GEM
may continue to under predict the number of transmission shifts of
vehicles on restricted access highways if the model simulates constant
speeds. We request comment on other ways in which the proposed 55 mph
and 65 mph duty cycles could be enhanced. For example, we request
comment on whether a more aggressive road grade profile would induce a
more realistic and representative number of transmission gear shifts.
We also request comment on whether we should consider varying the
vehicle target speed over the 55 mph and/or 65 mph duty cycles to
simulate human driver behavior reacting to traffic congestion. This
would increase the number of shifts during the 55 mph and 65 mph duty
cycles, though it may be possible for an equivalent effect to be
achieved by assigning a greater weighting to the transient cycle in the
GEM composite test score.
(i) Workday Idle Operation for Vocational Vehicle Certification
In the Phase 1 program, reduction in idle emissions was recognized
only for sleeper cab tractors, and only with respect to hotelling idle,
where a driver needs power to operate heating, ventilation, air
conditioning and other electrical equipment in order to use the sleeper
cab to eat, rest, or conduct other business. As described in Section V,
the agencies are now proposing to recognize in GEM technologies that
reduce workday idle emissions, such as automatic stop-start systems and
automatic transmissions that shift to neutral at idle. Many vocational
vehicle applications operate on patterns implicating workday idle
cycles, and the agencies are proposing test procedures in GEM to
account specifically for these cycles and potential controls. GEM would
recognize these idle controls in two ways. For technologies like
neutral-idle that address idle that occurs during the transient cycle
(representing the type of operation that would occur when the vehicle
is stopped at a stop light), GEM would interpolate lower fuel rates
from the engine map. For technologies like start-stop and auto-shutdown
that eliminate some of the idle that occurs when a vehicle is stopped
or parked, GEM would assign a value of zero fuel rate for what we are
proposing as an ``idle cycle''. This idle cycle would be weighted along
with the 65 mph, 55 mph, and ARB Transient duty cycles according to the
vocational chassis duty cycle weighting factors that we are proposing
for Phase 2. These weighting factors are different for each of the
three vocational chassis speed categories that we are proposing for
Phase 2. While we are not proposing to apply this idle cycle for
tractors, we do request comment on whether or not we should consider a
applying this idle cycle to certain tractor types, like day cabs that
could experience more significant amounts of time stopped or parked as
part of an urban delivery route. We also request comment on whether or
not start-stop or auto-shutdown technologies are being developed for
tractors; especially for Class 7 and 8 day cabs that could experience
more frequent stops and more time parked for deliveries.
(2) Validation of the Proposed GEM
After making the proposed changes to GEM, the agencies validated
the model in comparison to over 130 vehicle variants, consistent with
the recommendation made by the NAS in their Phase 2-First Report.\96\
As is described in Chapter 4 of the Draft RIA, good agreement was
observed between GEM simulations and test data over a wide range of
vehicles. In general, the model simulations agreed with the test
results within 5 percent on an absolute basis. As pointed
out in Chapter 4.3.2 of the RIA, relative accuracy is more relevant to
this rulemaking. This is because all of the numeric standards proposed
for tractors, trailers and vocational chassis are derived from running
GEM first with Phase 1 ``baseline'' technology packages and then with
various candidate Phase 2 technology packages. The differences between
these GEM results are examined to select stringencies. In other words,
the agencies used the same version of GEM to establish the standards as
was used to evaluate baseline performance for this rulemaking.
Therefore, it is most important that GEM accurately reflects relative
changes in emissions for each added technology. For vehicle
certification purposes it is less important that GEM's absolute value
of the fuel consumption or CO2 emissions are accurate
compared to laboratory testing of the same vehicle. The ultimate
purpose of this new version of GEM will be to evaluate changes or
additions in technology, and compliance is demonstrated on a relative
basis to the numerically standards that were also derived from GEM.
Nevertheless, the agencies concluded that the absolute accuracy of GEM
is generally within 5 percent, as shown in Figure II-1.
Chapter 4.3.2 of the draft RIA shows that relative accuracy is even
better, 2-3 percent.
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\96\ National Academy of Science. ``Reducing the Fuel
Consumption and GHG Emissions of Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicles,
Phase Two, First Report.'' 2014. Recommendation1.2.
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[[Page 40189]]
[GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] TP13JY15.000
In addition to this successful validation against experimental
results, the agencies have also initiated a peer review of the proposed
GEM source code. This peer review has been submitted to Docket # EPA-
HQ-OAR-2014-0827.
(3) Supplements to GEM Simulation
As in Phase 1, for most tractors and vocational vehicles,
compliance with the Phase 2 g/ton-mile vehicle standards could be
evaluated by directly comparing the GEM result to the standard.
However, in Phase 1, manufacturers incorporating innovative or advanced
technologies could apply improvement factors to lower the GEM result
slightly before comparing to the standard.\97\ For example, a
manufacturer incorporating a launch-assist mild hybrid that was
approved for a 5 percent benefit would apply a 0.95 improvement factor
to its GEM results for such vehicles. In this example, a GEM result of
300 g/ton-mile would be reduced to 285 g/ton-mile.
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\97\ 40 CFR 1036.610, 1036.615, 1037.610, and 1037.615
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For Phase 2, the agencies are proposing to largely continue the
existing Phase 1 innovative technology approach. We are also proposing
to create a parallel option specifically related to innovative
powertrain designs. These proposals are discussed below.
(a) Innovative/Off-Cycle Technology Procedures
In Phase 1 the agencies adopted an emissions credit generating
opportunity that applied to new and innovative technologies that reduce
fuel consumption and CO2 emissions, that were not in common
use with heavy-duty vehicles before model year 2010 and are not
reflected over the test procedures or GEM (i.e., the benefits are
``off-cycle''). See 76 FR 57253. As was the case in the development of
Phase 1, the agencies are proposing to continue this approach for
technologies and concepts with CO2 emissions and fuel
consumption reduction potential that might not be adequately captured
over the proposed Phase 2 duty cycles or are not proposed inputs to
GEM. Note, however, that the agencies are proposing to refer to these
technologies as off-cycle rather than innovative. See Section I for
more discussion of innovative and off-cycle technologies.
We recognize that the Phase 1 testing burden associated with the
innovative technology credit provisions discouraged some manufacturers
from applying. To streamline recognition of many technologies, default
values have been integrated directly into GEM. For example, automatic
tire inflation systems and 6x2 axles both have fixed default values,
recognized through a post-simulation adjustment approach discussed in
Chapter 4 of the draft RIA. This is similar to the technology ``pick
list'' from our light-duty programs. See 77 FR 62833-62835 (October 15,
2012). If manufacturers wish to receive additional credit beyond these
fixed values, then the innovative/off-cycle technology credit
provisions would provide the regulatory path toward that additional
recognition.
Beyond the additional technologies that the agencies have added to
GEM, the agencies also believe there are several emerging technologies
that are being developed today, but would not be accounted for in GEM
as we are proposing it because we do not have enough information about
these technologies to assign fixed values to them in GEM. Any credits
for these technologies would need to be based on the off-cycle
technology credit generation provisions. These require the assessment
of real-world fuel consumption and GHG reductions that can be measured
with verifiable test methods using representative operating conditions
typical of the engine or vehicle application.
As in Phase 1, the agencies are proposing to continue to provide
two
[[Page 40190]]
paths for approval of the test procedure to measure the CO2
emissions and fuel consumption reductions of an off-cycle technology
used in the HD tractor. See 40 CFR 1037.610 and 49 CFR 535.7. The first
path would not require a public approval process of the test method. A
manufacturer can use ``pre-approved'' test methods for HD vehicles
including the A-to-B chassis testing, powerpack testing or on-road
testing. A manufacturer may also use any developed test procedure which
has known quantifiable benefits. A test plan detailing the testing
methodology is required to be approved prior to collecting any test
data. The agencies are also proposing to continue the second path which
includes a public approval process of any testing method which could
have questionable benefits (i.e., an unknown usage rate for a
technology). Furthermore, the agencies are proposing to modify its
provisions to better clarify the documentation required to be submitted
for approval aligning them with provisions in 40 CFR 86.1869-12, and
NHTSA is separately proposing to prohibit credits from technologies
addressed by any of its crash avoidance safety rulemakings (i.e.,
congestion management systems). We welcome recommendations on how to
improve or streamline the off-cycle technology approval process.
Sections III and V describe tractor and vocational vehicle
technologies, respectively, that the agencies anticipate may qualify
for these off-cycle credit provisions.
(b) Powertrain Testing
The agencies are proposing a powertrain test option to allow for a
robust way to quantify the benefits of CO2 reducing
technologies that are a part of the powertrain (conventional or hybrid)
that are not captured in the GEM simulation. Powertrain testing and
certification was included as one of the NAS recommendations in the
Phase 2 -First Report.\98\ Some of these improvements are transient
fuel control, engine and transmission control integration and hybrid
systems. To limit the amount of testing, the powertrain would be
divided into families and powertrains would be tested in a limited
number of simulated vehicles that cover the range of vehicles in which
the powertrain would be installed. The powertrain test results would
then be used to override the engine and transmission simulation portion
of GEM.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\98\ National Academy of Science. ``Reducing the Fuel
Consumption and GHG Emissions of Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicles,
Phase Two, First Report.'' 2014. Recommendation 1.6. However, the
agencies are not proposing to allow for the use of manufacturer
derived and verified models of the powertrain within GEM.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
The largest proposed change from the Phase 1 powertrain procedure
is that only the advanced powertrain would need to be tested (as
opposed to the Phase 1 requirement where both the advanced powertrain
and the conventional powertrain had to be tested). This change is
possible because the proposed GEM simulation uses the engine fuel map
and torque curve from the actual engine in the vehicle to be certified.
For the powertrain results to be used broadly across all the vehicles
that the powertrain would go into, a matrix of 8 to 9 tests would be
needed per vehicle cycle. These tests would cover the range of
coefficient of drag, coefficient of rolling resistance, vehicle mass
and axle ratio of the vehicles that the powertrain will be installed
in. The main output of this matrix of tests would be fuel mass as a
function of positive work and average transmission output speed over
average vehicle speed. This matrix of test results would then be used
to calculate the vehicle's CO2 emissions by taking the work
per ton-mile from the GEM simulation and multiplying it by the
interpolated work specific fuel mass from the powertrain test and mass
of CO2 to mass of fuel ratio.
Along with proposing changes to how the powertrain results are
used, the agencies are also proposing changes to the procedures that
describe how to carry out a powertrain test. The changes are to give
additional guidance on controlling the temperature of the powertrains
intake-air, oil, coolant, block, head, transmission, battery, and power
electronics so that they are within their expected ranges for normal
operation. The equations that describe the vehicle model are proposed
to be changed to allow for input of the axle's efficiency, driveline
rotational inertia, as well as the mechanical and electrical accessory
loads.
The determine the positive work and average transmission output
speed over average vehicle speed in GEM for the vehicle that will be
certified, the agencies have defined a generic powertrain for each
vehicle category. The agencies are requesting comment on if the generic
powertrains should be modified according to specific aspects of the
actual powertrain. For example using the engine's rated power to scale
the generic engine's torque curve. Similarly, the transmission gear
ratios could be scaled by the axle ratio of the drive axle, to make
sure the generic engine is operated in GEM at the correct engine speed.
(4) Production Vehicle Testing for Comparison to GEM
The agencies are is proposing to require tractor and vocational
vehicle manufacturers to annually chassis test 5 production vehicles
over the GEM cycles to verify that relative reductions simulated in GEM
are being achieved in actual production. See 40 CFR 1037.665. We would
not expect absolute correlation between GEM results and chassis
testing. GEM makes many simplifying assumptions that do not compromise
its usefulness for certification, but do cause it to produce emission
rates different from what would be measured during a chassis
dynamometer test. Given the limits of correlation possible between GEM
and chassis testing, we would not expect such testing to accurately
reflect whether a vehicle was compliant with the GEM standards.
Therefore, we are proposing to not apply compliance liability to such
testing. Rather, this testing would be for informational purposes only.
However, we do expect there to be correlation in a relative sense.
Vehicle to vehicle differences showing a 10 percent improvement in GEM
should show a similar percent improvement with chassis dynamometer
testing. Nevertheless, manufacturers would not be subject to recall or
other compliance actions if chassis testing did not agree with the GEM
results on a relative basis. Rather, the agencies would continue
evaluate in-use compliance by verifying GEM inputs and testing in-use
engines.
EPA believes this chassis test program is necessary because of our
experience implementing regulations for heavy-duty engines. In the
past, manufacturers have designed engines that have much lower
emissions on the duty cycles than occur during actual use. By proposing
this simple test program, we hope to be able to identify such issues
earlier and to dissuade any attempts to design solely to the
certification test. We also expect the results of this testing to help
inform the need for any further changes to GEM.
As already noted in Section II.B.(1), it can be expensive to build
chassis test cells for certification. However, EPA is proposing to
structure this pilot-scale program to minimize the costs. First, we are
proposing that this chassis testing would not need to comply with the
same requirements as would apply for official certification testing.
This would allow testing to be performed in developmental test cells
with simple portable analyzers. Second, since the proposed program
would require only 5 tests per year, manufacturers without
[[Page 40191]]
their own chassis testing facility would be able to contract with a
third party to perform the testing. Finally, EPA proposes to apply this
testing to only those manufacturers with annual production in excess of
20,000 vehicles.
We request comment on this proposed testing requirement. Commenters
are encouraged to suggest alternate approaches that could achieve the
assurance that the projected emissions reductions would occur in actual
use.
(5) Use of GEM in Establishing Proposed Numerical Standards
Just like in Phase 1, the agencies are proposing specific numerical
standards against which tractors and vocational vehicles would be
evaluated using GEM (We propose that trailers use a simplified
equation-based approach that was derived from GEM). Although the
proposed standards are performance-based standards, which do not
specifically require the use of any particular technologies, the
agencies established the proposed standards by evaluating specific
vehicle technology packages using a prepublication version of the Phase
2 GEM. This prepublication version was an intermediate version of the
GEM source code, rather than the executable file version of GEM, which
is being docketed for this proposal and is available on EPA's GEM Web
page. Both the GEM source code and the GEM executable file are
generally functionally equivalent.
The agencies determined the proposed numerical standards
essentially by evaluating certain specific technology packages
representing the packages we are projecting to be feasible in the Phase
2 time frame. For each technology package, GEM was used determine a
cycle-weighted g/ton-mile emission rate and a gal/1,000 ton-mile fuel
consumption rate. These GEM results were then essentially averaged
together, weighted by the adoption rates the agencies are projecting
for each technology package and for each model year of standards.
Consider as an oversimplified example of two technology packages for
Class 8 low-roof sleepers cabs: one package that resulted in 60 g/ton-
mile and a second that resulted in 80 g/ton-mile. If we project that
the first package could be applied to 50 percent of the Class 8 low-
roof sleeper cab fleet in MY 2027, and that the rest of the fleet could
do no better than the second technology package, then we would set the
fleet average standard at 70 g/ton-mile (0.5 [middot] 60 + 0.5 [middot]
80 = 70).
Formal external peer review and expert external user review was
then conducted on the version of the GEM source code that was used to
calculate the numerical values of the proposed standards. It was
discovered via these external review processes that the GEM source code
contained some minor software ``bugs.'' These bugs were then corrected
by EPA and the Phase 2 proposed GEM executable file was derived from
this corrected version of the GEM source code. Moreover, we expect to
also receive technical comments during the comment period that could
potentially identify additional GEM software bugs, which would lead EPA
to make additional changes to GEM before the Final Rule. Nevertheless,
EPA has repeated the analysis described above using the corrected
version of the GEM source code that was used to create the proposed GEM
executable file. The results of this analysis are available in the
docket to this proposal.\99\
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\99\ See Memorandum to the Docket ``Numerical Standards for
Tractors, Trailers, and Vocational Vehicles Based on the June 2015
GEM Executable Code.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thus, even without the agencies making any changes in our
projections of technology effectiveness or market adoption rates, it is
likely that further revisions to GEM could result in us finalizing
different numerical values for the standards. It is important to note
that the agencies would not necessarily consider such GEM-based
numerical changes by themselves to be changes in the stringency of the
standards. Rather, we believe that stringency is more appropriately
evaluated in technological terms; namely, by evaluating technology
effectiveness and the market adoption rates of technologies.
Nevertheless, the agencies will docket any updates and supporting
information in a timely manner.
D. Proposed Engine Test Procedures and Engine Standards
For the most part, the proposed Phase 2 engine standards are a
continuation of the Phase 1 program, but with more stringent standards
for compression-ignition engines. Nevertheless, the agencies are
proposing important changes related to the test procedures and
compliance provisions. These changes are described below.
As already discussed in Section II.B. the agencies are proposing a
regulatory structure in which engine technologies are evaluated using
engine-specific test procedures as well using GEM, which is vehicle-
based. We are proposing separate standards for each procedure. The
proposed engine standards described in Section II.D.(2) and the
proposed vehicle standards described in Sections III and V are based on
the same engine technology, which is described in Section II.D.(2). We
request comment on whether the engine and vehicle standards should be
based on the same projected technology. As described below, while the
agencies projected the same engine technology for engine standards and
for vehicle standards, we separately projected the technology that
would be appropriate for:
Gasoline vocational engines and vehicles
Diesel vocational engines and vehicles
Tractor engines and vehicles
Before addressing the engine standards and engine technology in
Section II.D.(2), the agencies describe the test procedures that would
be used to evaluate these technologies in Section II.D.(1) below. We
believe that without first understanding the test procedures, the
numerical engine standards would not have the proper context.
(1) Engine Test Procedures
The Phase 1 engine standards relied on the engine test procedures
specified in 40 CFR part 1065. These procedures were previously used by
EPA to regulate criteria pollutants such as NOX and PM, and
few changes were needed to employ them for purposes of the Phase 1
standards. The agencies are proposing significant changes to two areas
for Phase 2: (1) cycle weighting; and (2) GEM inputs. (Note that EPA is
also proposing some minor changes to the basic part 1065 test
procedures, as described in Section XIII).
The diesel (i.e., compression-ignition) engine test procedure
relies on two separate engine test cycles. The first is the Heavy-duty
Federal Test Procedure (Heavy-duty FTP) that includes transient
operation typified by frequent accelerations and decelerations, similar
to urban or suburban driving. The second is the Supplemental Engine
Test (SET) which includes 13 steady-state test points. The SET was
adopted by EPA to address highway cruise operation and other nominally
steady-state operation. However, it is important to note that it was
intended as a supplemental test cycle and not necessarily to replicate
precisely any specific in-use operation.
The gasoline (i.e., spark-ignition) engine test procedure relies on
a single engine test cycle: a gasoline version of Heavy-duty FTP. The
agencies are not proposing changes to the gasoline engine test
procedures.
It is worth noting that EPA sees great value in using the same test
procedures for measuring GHG emissions as is used
[[Page 40192]]
for measuring criteria pollutants. From the manufacturers' perspective,
using the same procedures minimizes their test burden. However, EPA
sees additional benefits. First, as already noted in Section(b),
requiring engine manufacturers to comply with both NOX and
CO2 standards using the same test procedures discourages
alternate calibrations that would trade NOX emissions
against fuel consumption depending how the engine or vehicle is tested.
Second, this approach leverages the work that went into developing the
criteria pollutant cycles. Taken together, these factors support our
decision to continue to rely on the 40 CFR part 1065 test procedures
with only minor adjustments, such as those described in Section
II.D.(1)(a). Nevertheless, EPA would consider more substantial changes
if they were necessary to incentivize meaningful technology changes,
similar to the changes being made to GEM for Phase 2 to address
additional technologies.
(a) SET Cycle Weighting
The SET cycle was adopted by EPA in 2000 and modified in 2005 from
a discrete-mode test to a ramped-modal cycle to broadly cover the most
significant part of the speed and torque map for heavy-duty engines,
defined by three non-idle speeds and three relative torques. The low
speed is often called the ``A speed'', the intermediate speed is often
called the ``B speed'', and the high speed is often called the ``C
speed.'' As is shown in Table II-1, the SET weights these three speeds
at 23 percent, 39 percent, and 23 percent.
Table II-1--SET Modes Weighting Factor in Phase 1
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Weighting
Speed, % load factor in
Phase 1 (%)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Idle.................................................... 15
A, 100.................................................. 8
B, 50................................................... 10
B, 75................................................... 10
A, 50................................................... 5
A, 75................................................... 5
A, 25................................................... 5
B, 100.................................................. 9
B, 25................................................... 10
C, 100.................................................. 8
C, 25................................................... 5
C, 75................................................... 5
C, 50................................................... 5
Total................................................... 100
Total A Speed........................................... 23
Total B Speed........................................... 39
Total C Speed........................................... 23
------------------------------------------------------------------------
The C speed is typically in the range of 1800 rpm for current HHD
engine designs. However, it is becoming less common for engines to
operate often in such a high speed in real world driving condition, and
especially not during cruise vehicle speed between 55 and 65 mph. The
agencies receive confidential business information from a few vehicle
manufacturers that support this observation. Thus, although the current
SET represents highway operation better than the FTP cycle, it is not
an ideal cycle to represent future highway operation. Furthermore,
given the recent trend configure drivetrains to operate engines at
speeds down to a range of 1150-1200 rpm at vehicle speed of 65mph. This
trend would make the typical highway engine speeds even further away
from C speed.
To address this issue, the agencies are proposing new weighting
factors for the Phase 2 GHG and fuel consumption standards. The
proposed new SET mode weightings move most of C weighting to ``A''
speed, as shown in Table II-2. It would also slightly reduce the
weighting factor on the idle speed.
The agencies request comment on the proposed reweighting.
Table II-2--Proposed SET Modes Weighting Factor in Phase 2
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Proposed
weighting
Speed, % load factor in
Phase 2 (%)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Idle.................................................... 12
A, 100.................................................. 9
B, 50................................................... 10
B, 75................................................... 10
A, 50................................................... 12
A, 75................................................... 12
A, 25................................................... 12
B, 100.................................................. 9
B, 25................................................... 9
C, 100.................................................. 2
C, 25................................................... 1
C, 75................................................... 1
C, 50................................................... 1
Total................................................... 100
Total A Speed........................................... 45
Total B Speed........................................... 38
Total C Speed........................................... 5
------------------------------------------------------------------------
(b) Measuring GEM Engine Inputs
Although GEM does not apply directly to engine certification,
implementing the Phase 2 GEM would impact engine manufacturers. To
recognize the contribution of the engine in GEM the engine fuel map,
full load torque curve and motoring torque curve have to be input into
GEM. To insure the robustness of each of those inputs, a standard
procedure has to be followed. Both the full load and motoring torque
curve procedures are already defined in 40 CFR part 1065 for engine
testing. However, the fuel mapping procedure being proposed would be
new. The agencies have compared the proposed procedure against other
accepted engine mapping procedures with a number of engines at various
labs including EPA's NVFEL, Southwest Research Institute sponsored by
the agencies, and Environment Canada's laboratory.\100\ The proposed
procedure was selected because it proved to be accurate and repeatable,
while limiting the test burden to create the fuel map. This proposed
provision is consistent with NAS's recommendation (3.8).
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\100\ US EPA, ``Technical Research Workshop supporting EPA and
NHTSA Phase 2 Standards for MD/HD Greenhouse Gas and Fuel
Efficiency-- December 10 and 11, 2014,'' https://www.epa.gov/otaq/climate/regs-heavy-duty.htm.
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One important consideration is the need to correct measured fuel
consumption rates for the carbon and energy content of the test fuel.
For engine tests, we propose to continue the Phase 1 approach, which is
specified in 40 CFR 1036.530. We propose a similar approach to GEM fuel
maps in Phase 2.
The agencies are proposing that engine manufacturers must certify
fuel maps as part of their certification to the engine standards, and
that they be required to provide those maps to vehicle manufacturers
beginning with MY 2020.\101\ The one exception to this requirement
would be for cases in which the engine manufacturer certifies based on
powertrain testing, as described in Section (c). In such cases, engine
manufacturers would not be required to also certify the otherwise
applicable fuel maps. We are not proposing that vehicle manufacturers
be allowed to develop their own fuel maps for engines they do not
manufacture.
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\101\ Current normal vehicle manufacturing processes generally
result in many vehicles being produced with prior model year
engines. For example, we expect that some MY 2021 vehicles will be
produced with MY 2020 engines. Thus, we are proposing to require
engine manufacturers to begin providing fuel maps in 2020 so that
vehicle manufacturers could run GEM to certify MY 2021 vehicles with
MY 2020 engines.
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The current engine test procedures also require the development of
regeneration emission rate and frequency factors to account for the
emission changes for criteria pollutants during a regeneration event.
In Phase 1, the agencies adopted provisions to exclude CO2
emissions and fuel consumption due to regeneration. However, for Phase
2, we propose to include CO2 emissions and fuel consumption
due to regeneration over the FTP and RMC cycles as determined using the
infrequently regenerating aftertreatment devices (IRAF) provisions in
40 CFR 1065.680. We do not believe this would significantly impact the
stringency of the proposed standards
[[Page 40193]]
because manufacturers have already made great progress in reducing the
impact of regeneration emissions since 2007. Nevertheless, we believe
it would be prudent to begin accounting for regeneration emissions to
discourage manufacturers from adopting compliance strategies that would
reverse this trend. We request comment on this requirement.
We are not proposing, however, to include fuel consumption due to
regeneration in the creation of the fuel map used in GEM for vehicle
compliance. We believe that the proposed requirements for the duty-
cycle standards, along with market forces that already exist, would
create sufficient incentives to reduce fuel consumption during
regeneration over the entire fuel map.
(c) Engine Test Procedures for Replicating Powertrain Tests
As described in Section II.B.(2)(b), the agencies are proposing a
powertrain test option to quantify the benefits of CO2
reducing powertrain technologies. These powertrain test results would
then be used to override the engine and transmission simulation portion
of GEM. The agencies are proposing to require that any manufacturer
choosing to use this option also measure engine speed and engine torque
during the powertrain test so that the engine's performance during the
powertrain test could be replicated in a non-powertrain engine test
cell. Subsequent engine testing would be conducted using the normal
part 1065 engine test procedures, and g/hp-hr CO2 results
would be compared to the levels the manufacturer reported during
certification. Such testing would apply for both confirmatory and
selective enforcement audit testing.
Under the proposed regulations, engine manufacturers certifying
powertrain performance (instead of or in addition to the multi-point
fuel maps) would be held responsible for powertrain test results. If
the engine manufacturer does not certify powertrain performance and
instead certifies only the multi-point fuel maps, it would held
responsible for fuel map performance rather than the powertrain test
results. Engine manufacturers certifying both would be responsible for
both.
(d) CO2 From Urea SCR Systems
For diesel engines utilizing urea SCR emission control systems for
NOX reduction, the agencies are proposing to allow
correction of the final engine fuel map and powertrain duty cycle
CO2 emission results to account for the contribution of
CO2 from the urea injected into the exhaust. This urea could
contribute up to 1 percent of the total CO2 emissions from
the engine. Since current urea production methods use gaseous
CO2 captured from the atmosphere (along with
NH3), CO2 from urea consumption does not
represent a net carbon emission. This adjustment is necessary so that
fuel maps developed from CO2 measurements would be
consistent with fuel maps from direct measurements of fuel flow rates.
Thus, we are only proposing to allow this correction for emission tests
where CO2 emissions are determined from direct measurement
of CO2 and not from fuel flow measurement, which would not
be impacted by CO2 from urea.
We note that this correction would be voluntary for manufacturers,
and expect that some manufacturers may determine that the correction is
too small to be of concern. The agencies will use this correction with
any engines for which the engine manufacturer applied the correction
for its fuel maps during certification.
We are not proposing this correction for engine test results with
respect to the engine CO2 standards. Both the Phase 1
standards and the proposed standards for CO2 from diesel
engines are based on test results that included CO2 from
urea. In other words, these standards are consistent with using a test
procedure that does not correct for CO2 from urea. We
request comment on whether it would be appropriate to allow this
correction for the Phase 2 engine CO2 standards, but also
adjust the standards to reflect the correction. At this time, we
believe that reducing the numerical value of the CO2
standards by 1 g/hp-hr would make the standards consistent with
measurement that are corrected for CO2 from urea. However,
we also request comment on the appropriateness of applying a 2 g/hp-hr
adjustment should we determine it would better reflect the urea
contribution for current engines.
(e) Potential Alternative Certification Approach
In Section II.B.(2)(b), we explained that although GEM does not
apply directly to engine certification, implementing the Phase 2 GEM
would impact engine manufacturers by requiring that they measure engine
fuel maps. In Section II.B.(2), the agencies noted that some
stakeholders may have concerns about the proposed regulatory structure
that would require engine manufacturers to provide detailed fuel
consumption maps for GEM. Given such concerns, the agencies are
requesting comment on an approach that could mitigate the concerns by
allowing both vehicle and engine to use the same driving cycles for
certification. The detailed description of this alternative
certification approach can be seen in the draft RIA. We are requesting
comment on allowing this approach as an option, or as a replacement to
the proposed approach. Commenters supporting this approach should
address possible impacts on the stringency of the proposed standards.
This approach utilizes GEM with a default engine fuel map pre-
defined by the agency to run a number of pre-defined vehicle
configurations over three certification cycles. Engine torque and speed
profile would be obtained from the simulations, and would be used to
specify engine dynamometer commands for engine testing. The results of
this testing would be a CO2 map as function of the
integrated work and the ratio of averaged engine speed (N) to averaged
vehicle speed (V) defined as (N/V) over each certification cycle. In
vehicle certification, vehicle manufacturers would run GEM with the to-
be-certified vehicle configuration and the agency default engine fuel
map separately for each GEM cycle. Applying the total work and N/V
resulted from the GEM simulations to the CO2 map obtained
from engine tests would determine CO2 consumption for
vehicle certification. For engine certification, we are considering
allowing the engine to be certified based on one of the points
conducted during engine alternative CO2 map tests mentioned
above rather than based on the FTP and SET cycle testing.
(2) Proposed Engine Standards for CO2 and Fuel Consumption
We are proposing to maintain the existing Phase 1 regulatory
structure for engine standards, which had separate standards for spark-
ignition engines (such as gasoline engines) and compression-ignition
engines (such as diesel engines), but we are proposing changes to how
these standards would apply to natural gas fueled engines. As discussed
in Section II.B.(2)(b), the agencies see important advantages to
maintaining separate engines standards, such as improved compliance
assurance and better control during transient engine operation.
Phase 1 also applied different test cycles depending on whether the
engine is used for tractors, vocational vehicles, or both, and we
propose to continue this as well.\102\ We assume that CO2 at
the
[[Page 40194]]
end of Phase 1 is the baseline of Phase 2. Table II-3 shows the Phase 1
CO2 standards for diesel engines, which serve as the
baseline for our analysis of the proposed Phase 2 standards.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\102\ Engine classification is set forth in 40 CFR 1036.801.
Spark-ignition means relating to a gasoline-fueled engine or any
other type of engine with a spark plug (or other sparking device)
and with operating characteristics similar to the Otto combustion
cycle. However, engines that meet the definition of spark-ignition
per 1036.801, but are regulated as diesel engines under 40 CFR part
86 (for criteria pollutants) are treated as compression-ignition
engines for GHG standards. Compression-ignition means relating to a
type of reciprocating, internal-combustion engine that is not a
spark-ignition engine, however, engines that meet the definition of
compression-ignition per 1036.801, but are regulated as Otto-cycle
engines under 40 CFR part 86 are treated as spark-ignition engines
for GHG standards.
Table II-3--Phase 2 Baseline CO2 Performance
(g/bhp-hr)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LHDD-FTP MHDD-FTP HHDD-FTP MHDD-SET HHDD-SET
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
576 576 555 487 460
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The gasoline engine baseline CO2 is 627 (g/bhp-hr). The
agencies used the baseline engine to assess the potential of the
technologies described in the following sections. As described below,
the agencies are proposing new compression-ignition engine standards
for Phase 2 that would require additional reductions in CO2
emissions and fuel consumption beyond the baseline. However, as also
described below in Section II.B.(2)(b), we are not proposing more
stringent CO2 or fuel consumption standards for new heavy-
duty gasoline engines. Note, however, that we are projecting some small
improvement in gasoline engine performance that would be recognized
over the vehicle cycles.
For heavy-heavy-duty diesel engines to be installed in Class 7 and
8 combination tractors, the agencies are proposing the standards shown
in Table II-4.\103\ The proposed MY 2027 standards for engines
installed in tractors would require engine manufacturers to achieve, on
average, a 4.2 percent reduction in fuel consumption and CO2
emissions beyond the Phase 1 standard. We propose to adopt interim
engine standards in MY 2021 and MY 2024 that would require diesel
engine manufacturers to achieve, on average, 1.5 percent and 3.7
percent reductions in fuel consumption and CO2 emissions,
respectively.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\103\ The agencies note that the CO2 and fuel
consumption standards for Class 7 and 8 combination tractors do not
cover gasoline or LHDD engines, as those are not used in Class 7 and
8 combination tractors.
Table II-4--Proposed Phase 2 Heavy-Duty Tractor Engine Standards for Engines\104\ Over the SET Cycle
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Medium heavy- Heavy heavy-
Model year Standard duty diesel duty diesel
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2021-2023.................................. CO2 (g/bhp-hr)..................... 479 453
Fuel Consumption (gallon/100 bhp- 4.7053 4.4499
hr).
2024-2026.................................. CO2 (g/bhp-hr)..................... 469 443
Fuel Consumption (gallon/100 bhp- 4.6071 4.3517
hr).
2027 and Later............................. CO2 (g/bhp-hr)..................... 466 441
Fuel Consumption (gallon/100 bhp- 4.5776 4.3320
hr).
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Forcompression-ignition engines fitted into vocational vehicles,
the agencies are proposing MY 2027 standards that would require engine
manufacturers to achieve, on average, a 4.0 percent reduction in fuel
consumption and CO2 emissions beyond the Phase 1 standard.
We propose to adopt interim engine standards in MY 2021 and MY 2024
that would require diesel engine manufacturers to achieve, on average,
2.0 percent and 3.5 percent reductions in fuel consumption and
CO2 emissions, respectively.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\104\ Tractor engine standards apply to all engines, without
regard to the engine-cycle classification.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table II-5 presents the CO2 and fuel consumption
standards the agencies propose for compression-ignition engines to be
installed in vocational vehicles. The first set of standards would take
effect with MY 2021, and the second set would take effect with MY 2024.
Table II-5--Proposed Vocational Diesel Engine Standards Over the Heavy-Duty FTP Cycle
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Light heavy- Medium heavy- Heavy heavy-
Model year Standard duty diesel duty diesel duty diesel
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2021-2023.......................... CO2 Standard (g/bhp-hr).... 565 565 544
Fuel Consumption Standard 5.5501 5.5501 5.3438
(gallon/100 bhp-hr).
2024-2026.......................... CO2 Standard (g/bhp-hr).... 556 556 536
Fuel Consumption (gallon/ 5.4617 5.4617 5.2652
100 bhp-hr).
2027 and Later..................... CO2 Standard (g/bhp-hr).... 553 553 533
Fuel Consumption (gallon/ 5.4322 5.4322 5.2358
100 bhp-hr).
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Although both EPA and NHTSA are proposing to begin the Phase 2
engine standards, EPA considered proposing Phase 2 standards that would
begin before MY 2021--that is with less lead time. NHTSA is required by
statute to
[[Page 40195]]
provide four models years of lead time, while EPA is required only to
provide lead time ``necessary to permit the development and application
of the requisite technology'' (CAA Section 202(a)(2)). However, as
noted in Section I, lead time cannot be separated for other relevant
factors such as costs, reliability, and stringency. Proposing these
standards before 2021 could increase the risk of reliability issues in
the early years. Given the limited number of engine models that each
manufacturer produces, managing that many new standards would be
problematic (i.e., new Phase 1 standards in 2017, new Phase 2 EPA
standards in 2018, 2019, or 2020, new standards in 2021, 2024, and
again in 2027). Considering these challenges, EPA determined that
earlier model year standards would not be appropriate, especially given
the value of harmonizing the NHTSA and EPA standards.
(a) Feasibility of the Diesel (Compression-Ignition) Engine Standards
In this section, the agencies discuss our assessment of the
feasibility of the proposed engine standards and the extent to which
they would conform to our respective statutory authority and
responsibilities. More details on the technologies discussed here can
be found in the Draft RIA Chapter 2.3. The feasibility of these
technologies is further discussed in draft RIA Chapter 2.7 for tractor
and vocational vehicle engines. Note also, that the agencies are
considering adopting engine standards with less lead time, and may do
so in the Final Rules. These standards are discussed in Section (e).
Based on the technology analysis described below, the agencies can
project a technology path exists to allow manufacturers to meet the
proposed final Phase 2 standards by 2027, as well as meeting the
intermediate 2021 and 2024 standards. The agencies also project that
manufacturers would be able to meet these standards at a reasonable
cost and without adverse impacts on in-use reliability. Note that the
agencies are still evaluating whether these same standards could be met
sooner, as was analyzed in Alternative 4.
In general, engine performance for CO2 emissions and
fuel consumption can be improved by improving combustion and reducing
energy losses. More specifically, the agencies have identified the
following key areas where fuel efficiency can be improved:
Combustion optimization
Turbocharging system
Engine friction and other parasitic losses
Exhaust aftertreatment
Engine breathing system
Engine downsizing
Waste heat recovery
Transient control for vocational engines only
The agencies are proposing to phase-in the standards from 2021
through 2027 so that manufacturers could gradually introduce these
technologies. For most of these improvements, the agencies project
manufacturers could begin applying them to about 45-50 percent of their
heavy-duty engines by 2021, 90-95 percent by 2024, and ultimately apply
them to 100 percent of their heavy-duty engines by 2027. However, for
some of these improvements (such as waste heat recovery and engine
downsizing) we project lower application rates in the Phase 2 time
frame. This phase-in structure is consistent with the normal manner in
which manufacturers introduce new technology to manage limited R&D
budgets and well as to allow them to work with fleets to fully evaluate
in-use reliability before a technology is applied fleet-wide. The
agencies believe the proposed phase-in schedule would allow
manufacturers to complete these normal processes. As described in
Section (e), the agencies are also requesting comment on whether
manufacturers could complete these development steps more quickly so
that they could meet these standards sooner.
Based on our technology assessment described below, the proposed
engine standards appear to be consistent with the agencies' respective
statutory authorities. All of the technologies with high penetration
rates above 50 percent have already been demonstrated to some extent in
the field or in research laboratories, although some development work
remains to be completed. We note that our feasibility analysis for
these engine standards is not based on projecting 100 percent
application for any technology until 2027. We believe that projecting
less than 100 percent application is appropriate and gives us
additional confidence that the interim standards would be feasible.
Because this analysis considers reductions from engines meeting the
Phase 1 standards, it assumes manufacturers would continue to include
the same compliance margins as Phase 1. In other words, a manufacturer
currently declaring FCLs 10 g/hp-hr above its measured emission rates
(in order to account for production and test-to-test variability) would
continue to do the same in Phase 2. We request comment on this
assumption.
The agencies have carefully considered the costs of applying these
technologies, which are summarized in Section II.D.(2) (d). These costs
appear to be reasonable on both a per engine basis, and when
considering payback periods.\105\ The engine technologies are discussed
in more detail below. Readers are encouraged to see the draft RIA
Chapter 2 for additional details (and underlying references) about our
feasibility analysis.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\105\ See Section IX.M for additional information about payback
periods.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
(i) Combustion Optimization
Although manufacturers are making significant improvements in
combustion to meet the Phase 1 engine standards, the agencies project
that even more improvement would be possible after 2018. For example,
improvements to fuel injection systems would allow more flexible fuel
injection capability with higher injection pressure, which can provide
more opportunities to improve engine fuel efficiency. Further
optimization of piston bowls and injector tips would also improve
engine performance and fuel efficiency. We project that a reduction of
up to 1.0 percent is feasible in the 2024 model year through the use of
these technologies, although it would likely apply to only 95 percent
of engines until 2027.
Another important area of potential improvement is advanced engine
control incorporating model based calibration to reduce losses of
control during transient operation. Improvements in computing power and
speed would make it possible to use much more sophisticated algorithms
that are more predictive than today's controls. Because such controls
are only beneficial during transient operation, they would reduce
emission over the FTP cycle, and during in-use operation, they would
not reduce emissions over the SET cycle. Thus the agencies are
projecting model based control reductions only for vocational engines.
Although this control concept is not currently available, we project
model based controls achieving a 2 percent improvement in transient
emissions could be in production for some engine models by 2021. By
2027, we project over one-third of all vocational diesel engines would
incorporate model-based controls.
(ii) Turbocharging System
Many advanced turbocharger technologies can be potentially added
[[Page 40196]]
into production in the time frame between 2021 and 2027, and some of
them are already in production, such as mechanical or electric turbo-
compound, more efficient variable geometry turbine, and Detroit
Diesel's patented asymmetric turbocharger. A turbo compound system
extracts energy from the exhaust to provide additional power.
Mechanical turbo-compounding includes a power turbine located
downstream of the turbine which in turn is connected to the crankshaft
to supply additional power. On-highway demonstrations of this
technology began in the early 1980s. It was used first in heavy duty
production by Detroit Diesel for their DD15 and DD16 engines and
reportedly provided a 3 to 5 percent fuel consumption reduction.
Results are duty cycle dependent, and require significant time at high
load to see a fuel efficiency improvement. Light load factor vehicles
can expect little or no benefit. Volvo reports two to four percent fuel
consumption improvement in line haul applications, which could be in
production even by 2020.
(iii) Engine Friction and Parasitic Losses
The friction associated with each moving part in an engine results
in a small loss of engine power. For example, frictional losses occur
at bearings, in the valvetrain, and at the piston-cylinder interface.
Taken together such losses represent a large fraction of all energy
lost in an engine. For Phase 1, the agencies projected a 1-2 percent
reduction in fuel consumption due to friction reduction. However, new
information leads us to project that an additional 1.4 percent
reduction would be possible for some engines by 2021 and all engines by
2027. These reductions would be possible due to improvements in bearing
materials, lubricants, and new accessory designs such as variable-speed
pumps.
(iv) Aftertreatment Optimization
All diesel engines manufacturers are already using diesel
particulate filter (DPF) to reduce particulate matter (PM) and
selective catalytic reduction (SCR) to reduce NOX emissions.
The agencies see two areas in which improved aftertreatment systems can
also result in lower fuel consumption. First, increased SCR efficiency
could allow re-optimization of combustion for better fuel consumption
because the SCR would be capable of reducing higher engine-out
NOX emissions. Second, improved designs could reduce
backpressure on the engine to lower pumping losses. The agencies
project the combined impact of such improvements could be 0.6 percent
or more.
(v) Engine Breathing System
Various high efficiency air handling (for both intake air and
exhaust) processes could be produced in the 2020 and 2024 time frame.
To maximize the efficiency of such processes, induction systems may be
improved by manufacturing more efficiently designed flow paths
(including those associated with air cleaners, chambers, conduit, mass
air flow sensors and intake manifolds) and by designing such systems
for improved thermal control. Improved turbocharging and air handling
systems would likely include higher efficiency EGR systems and
intercoolers that reduce frictional pressure loss while maximizing the
ability to thermally control induction air and EGR. EGR systems that
often rely upon an adverse pressure gradient (exhaust manifold
pressures greater than intake manifold pressures) must be reconsidered
and their adverse pressure gradients minimized. Other components that
offer opportunities for improved flow efficiency include cylinder
heads, ports and exhaust manifolds to further reduce pumping losses by
about 1 percent.
(vi) Engine Downsizing
Proper sizing of an engine is an important component of optimizing
a vehicle for best fuel consumption. This Phase 2 rule would improve
overall vehicle efficiency, which would result in a drop in the vehicle
power demand for most operation. This drop moves the vehicle operating
points down to a lower load zone, which can move the engine away from
the sweet spot. Engine downsizing combined with engine downspeeding can
allow the engine to move back to higher loads and lower speed zone,
thus achieving slightly better fuel economy in the real world. However,
because of the way engines are tested, little of the benefit of engine
downsizing would be detected during engine testing (if power density
remains the same) because the engine test cycles are normalized based
on the full torque curve. Thus the current engine test is not the best
way to measure the true effectiveness of engine downsizing.
Nevertheless, we project that some small benefit would be measured over
the engine test cycles--perhaps up to a one-quarter percent improvement
in fuel consumption. Note that a bigger benefit would be observed
during GEM simulation, better reflecting real world improvements. This
is factored into the vehicle standards. Thus, the agencies see no
reason to fundamentally revise the engine test procedure at this time.
(vii) Waste Heat Recovery
More than 40 percent of all energy loss in an engine is lost as
heat to the exhaust and engine coolant. For many years, manufacturers
have been using turbochargers to convert some of the waste heat in the
exhaust into usable mechanical power than is used to compress the
intake air. Manufacturers have also been working to use a Rankine
cycle-based system to extract additional heat energy from the engine.
Such systems are often called waste heat recovery (WHR) systems. The
possible sources of energy include the exhaust, recirculated exhaust
gases, compressed charge air, and engine coolant. The basic approach
with WHR is to use waste heat from one or more of these sources to
evaporate a working fluid, which is passed through a turbine or
equivalent expander to create mechanical or electrical power, then re-
condensed.
Prior to the Phase 1 Final Rule, the NAS estimated the potential
for WHR to reduce fuel consumption by up to 10 percent.\106\ However,
the agencies do not believe such levels would be achievable within the
Phase 2 time frame. There currently are no commercially available WHR
systems for diesel engines, although research prototype systems are
being tested by some manufacturers. The agencies believe it is likely a
commercially-viable WHR capable of reducing fuel consumption by over
three percent would be available in the 2021 to 2024 time frame. Cost
and complexity may remain high enough to limit the use of such systems
in this time frame. Moreover, packaging constraints and transient
response challenges would limit the application of WHR systems to line-
haul tractors. Refer to RIA Chapter 2 for a detailed description of
these systems and their applicability. The agencies project that WHR
recovery could be used on 1 percent of all tractor engines by 2021, on
5 percent by 2024, and 15 percent by 2027.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\106\ See 2010 NAS Report, page 57.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
The net cost and effectiveness of future WHR systems would depend
on the sources of waste heat. Systems that extract heat from EGR gases
may provide the side benefit of reducing the size of EGR coolers or
eliminating them altogether. To the extent that WHR systems use exhaust
heat, they would increase the overall cooling system heat rejection
requirement and likely require larger radiators. This could have
negative impacts on cooling fan power
[[Page 40197]]
needs and vehicle aerodynamics. Limited engine compartment space under
hood could leave insufficient room for additional radiator size
increasing. On the other hand, WHR systems that extract heat from the
engine coolant, could actually improve overall cooling.
(viii) Technology Packages for Diesel Engines Installed in Tractors
Typical technology packaged for diesel engines installed in
tractors basically includes most technologies mentioned above, which
includes combustion optimization, turbocharging system, engine friction
and other parasitic losses, exhaust aftertreatment, engine breathing
system, and engine downsizing. Depending on the technology maturity of
WHR and market demands, a small number of tractors could install waste
heat recovery device with Rankine cycle technology. During the
stringency development, the agencies received strong support from
various stakeholders, where they graciously provided many confidential
business information (CBI) including both technology reduction
potentials and estimated market penetrations. Combining those CBI data
with the agencies' engineering judgment, Table II-4 lists those
potential technologies together with the agencies' estimated market
penetration for tractor engine. Those reduction values shown as ``SET
reduction'' are relative to Phase 1 engine, which is shown in Table II-
6. It should be pointed out that the stringency in Table II-6 are
developed based on the proposed SET reweighting factors l shown in
Table II-2. The agencies welcome comment on the market penetration
rates listed below.
Table II-6--Projected Tractor Engine Technologies and Reduction
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SET weighted Market Market Market
SET mode reduction (%) penetration penetration penetration
2020-2027 (2021) % (2024) % (2027) %
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Turbo compound with clutch...................... 1.8 5 10 10
WHR (Rankine cycle)............................. 3.6 1 5 15
Parasitic/Friction (Cyl Kits, pumps, FIE), 1.4 45 95 100
lubrication....................................
Aftertreatment (lower dP)....................... 0.6 45 95 100
EGR/Intake & exhaust manifolds/Turbo/VVT/Ports.. 1.1 45 95 100
Combustion/FI/Control........................... 1.1 45 95 100
Downsizing...................................... 0.3 10 20 30
Weighted reduction (%).......................... .............. 1.5 3.7 4.2
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(ix) Technology Packages for Diesel Engines Installed in Vocational
Vehicles
For compression-ignition engines fitted into vocational vehicles,
the agencies are proposing MY 2021 standards that would require engine
manufacturers to achieve, on average, a 2.0 percent reduction in fuel
consumption and CO2 emissions beyond the baseline that is
the Phase 1 standard. Beginning in MY 2024, the agencies are proposing
engine standards that would require diesel engine manufacturers to
achieve, on average, a 3.5 percent reduction in fuel consumption and
CO2 emissions beyond the Phase 1 baseline standards for all
diesel engines including LHD, MHD, and HHD. The agencies are proposing
these standards based on the performance of reduced parasitics and
friction, improved aftertreatment, combustion optimization,
superchargers with VGT and bypass, model-based controls, improved EGR
cooling/transport, and variable valve timing (only in LHD and MHD
engines). The percent reduction for the MY2021, MY2024, and MY2027
standards is based on the combination of technology effectiveness and
market adoption rate projected.
Most of the potential engine related technologies discussed
previously can be applied here. However, neither the waste heat
technologies with the Rankine cycle concept nor turbo-compound would be
applied into vocational sector due to the inefficient use of waste heat
energy with duty cycles and applications with more transient operation
than highway operation. Given the projected cost and complexity of such
systems, we believe that for the Phase 2 time frame manufacturers will
focus their development work on tractor applications (which would have
better payback for operators) rather than vocational applications. In
addition, the benefits due to engine downsizing, which can be seen in
tractor engines, may not be clearly seen in vocational sector, again
because this control technology produces few benefits in transient
operation.
One of the most effective technologies for vocational engines is
the optimization of transient control. It would be expected that more
advanced transient control including different levels of model based
control and neural network control package could provide substantial
benefits in vocational engines due to the extensive transient operation
of these vehicles. For this technology, the use of the FTP cycle would
drive engine manufacturers to invest more in transient control to
improve engine efficiency. Other effective technologies would be
parasitic/friction reduction, as well as improvements to combustion,
air handling systems, turbochargers, and aftertreatment systems. Table
II-7 below lists those potential technologies together with the
agencies' projected market penetration for vocational engines. Again,
similar to tractor engine, the technology reduction and market
penetration are estimated by combining the CBI data together with the
agencies' engineering judgment. Those reduction values shown as ``FTP
reduction'' are relative to a Phase 2 baseline engine, which is shown
in Table II-3. The weighted reductions combine the emission reduction
values weighted by the market penetration of each technology).
[[Page 40198]]
Table II-7--Projected Vocational Engine Technologies and Reduction
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GHG emissions Market Market Market
Technology reduction 2020- penetration penetration penetration
2027 % 2021 % 2024 % 2027 %
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Model based control............................. 2.0 25 30 40
Parasitic/Friction.............................. 1.5 60 90 100
EGR/Air/VVT/Turbo............................... 1.0 50 90 100
Improved AT..................................... 0.5 50 90 100
Combustion Optimization......................... 1.0 50 90 100
Weighted reduction (%)-L/M/HHD.................. .............. 2.0 3.5 4.0
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(x) Summary of the Agencies' Analysis of the Feasibility of the
Proposed Diesel Engine Standards
The proposed HD Phase 2 standards are based on adoption rates for
technologies that the agencies regard, subject to consideration of
public comment, as the maximum feasible for purposes of EISA Section
32902(k) and appropriate under CAA Section 202(a) for the reasons given
above. The agencies believe these technologies can be adopted at the
estimated rates for these standards within the lead time provided, as
discussed in draft RIA Chapter 2. The 2021 and 2024 MY standards are
phase-in standards on the path to the 2027 MY standards and were
developed using less aggressive application rates and therefore have
lower technology package costs than the 2027 MY standards.
As described in Section II.D.(2)(d) below, the cost of the proposed
standards is estimated to range from $270 to $1,698 per engine. This is
slightly higher than the costs for Phase 1, which were estimated to be
$234 to $1,091 per engine. Although the agencies did not separately
determine fuel savings or emission reductions due to the engine
standards apart from the vehicle program, it is expected that the fuel
savings would be significantly larger than these costs, and the
emission reductions would be roughly proportional to the technology
costs when compared to the corresponding vehicle program reductions and
costs. Thus, we regard these standards as cost-effective. This is true
even without considering payback period. The proposed phase-in 2021 and
2024 MY standards are less stringent and less costly than the proposed
2027 MY standards. Given that the agencies believe the proposed
standards are technologically feasible, are highly cost effective, and
highly cost effective when accounting for the fuel savings, and have no
apparent adverse potential impacts (e.g., there are no projected
negative impacts on safety or vehicle utility), the proposed standards
appear to represent a reasonable choice under Section 202(a) of the CAA
and the maximum feasible under NHTSA's EISA authority at 49 U.S.C.
32902(k)(2).
(b) Basis for Continuing the Phase 1 Spark-Ignited Engine Standard
Today most SI-powered vocational vehicles are sold as incomplete
vehicles by a vertically integrated chassis manufacturer, where the
incomplete chassis shares most of the same technology as equivalent
complete pickups or vans, including the powertrain. The number of such
incomplete SI-powered vehicles is small compared to the number of
completes. Another, even less common way that SI-powered vocational
vehicles are built is by a non-integrated chassis manufacturer
purchasing an engine from a company that also produces complete and/or
incomplete HD pickup trucks and vans. The resulting market structure
leads manufacturers of heavy-duty SI engines to have little market
incentive to develop separate technology for vocational engines that
are engine-certified. Moreover, the agencies have not identified a
single SI engine technology that we believe belongs on engine-certified
vocational engines that we do not also project to be used on complete
heavy-duty pickups and vans.
In light of this market structure, when the agencies considered the
feasibility of more stringent Phase 2 standards for SI vocational
engines, we identified the following key questions:
1. Will there be technologies available that could reduce in-use
emissions from vocational SI engines?
2. Would these technologies be applied to complete vehicles and
carried-over to engine certified engines without a new standard?
3. Would these technologies be applied to meet the vehicle-based
standards described in Section V?
4. What are the drawbacks associated with setting a technology-
forcing Phase 2 standard for SI engines?
With respect to the first and second questions, as noted in Chapter
2.6 of the draft RIA, the agencies have identified improved lubricants,
friction reduction, and cylinder deactivation as technologies that
could potentially reduce in-use emissions from vocational engines; and
the agencies have further determined that to the extent these
technologies would be viable for complete vehicles, they would also be
applied to engine-certified engines. Nevertheless, significant
uncertainty remains about how much benefit would be provided by these
technologies. It is possible that the combined impact of these
technologies would be one percent or less. With respect to the third
question, we believe that to the extent these technologies are viable
and effective, they would be applied to meet the vehicle-based
standards for vocational vehicles.
At this time, it appears the fourth question regarding drawbacks is
the most important. The agencies could propose a technology forcing
standard for vocational SI engines based on a projection of each of
these technologies being effective for these engines. However, as
already noted in Section I, the agencies see value in setting the
standards at levels that would not require every projected technology
to work as projected. Effectively requiring technologies to match our
current projections would create the risk that the standards would not
be feasible if even a single one of technologies failed to match our
projections. This risk is amplified for SI engines because of the very
limited product offerings, which provide far fewer opportunities for
averaging than exist for CI engines. Given the relatively small
improvement projected, and the likelihood that most or all of this
improvement would result anyway from the complete pickup and van
standards and the vocational vehicle-based standards, we do not believe
such risk is justified or needed. The approach the agencies are
proposing accomplishes the same objective without the attendant
[[Page 40199]]
potential risk. With this approach, the Phase 1 SI engine standard for
these engines would remain in place, and engine improvements would be
reflected in the stringency of the vehicle standard for the vehicle in
which the engine would be installed. Nevertheless, we request comment
on the merits of adopting a more stringent SI engine standard in the
2024 to 2027 time frame, including comment on technologies, adoption
rates, and effectiveness over the engine cycle that could support
adoption of a more stringent standard. Please see Section V.C of this
preamble for a description of the SI engine technologies that have been
considered in developing the proposed vocational vehicle standards.
Please see Section VI.C of this preamble for a description of the SI
engine technologies that have been considered in developing the
proposed HD pickup truck and van standards.
(c) Engine Improvements Projected for Vehicles over the GEM Duty Cycles
Because we are proposing that tractor and vocational vehicle
manufacturers represent their vehicles' actual engines in GEM for
vehicle certification, the agencies aligned our engine technology
effectiveness assessments for both the separate engine standards and
the tractor and vocational vehicle standards for each of the regulatory
alternatives considered. This was an important step because we are
proposing to recognize the same engine technologies in both the
separate engine standards and the vehicle standards, which each have
different test procedures for demonstrating compliance. As explained
earlier in Section II. D. (1), compliance with the tractor separate
engine standards is determined from a composite of the Supplemental
Engine Test (SET) procedure's 13 steady-state operating points.
Compliance with the vocational vehicle separate engine standards is
determined over the Federal Test Procedure's (FTP) transient engine
duty cycle. In contrast, compliance with the vehicle standards is
determined using GEM, which calculates composite results over a
combination of 55 mph and 65 mph steady-state vehicle cycles and the
ARB Transient vehicle cycle. Note that we are also proposing a new
workday idle cycle for vocational vehicles. Each of these duty cycles
emphasizes different engine operating points; therefore, they can each
recognize certain technologies differently.
Our first step in aligning our engine technology assessment at both
the engine and vehicle levels was to start with an analysis of how we
project each technology to impact performance at each of the 13
individual test points of the SET steady-state engine duty cycle. For
example, engine friction reduction technology would be expected to have
the greatest impact at the highest engine speeds, where frictional
energy losses are the greatest. As another example, turbocharger
technology is generally optimized for best efficiency at steady-state
cruise vehicle speed. For an engine this is near its lower peak-torque
speed and at a moderately high load that still offers sufficient torque
reserve to climb modest road grades without frequent transmission gear
shifting. The agencies also considered the combination of certain
technologies causing synergies and dis-synergies with respect to engine
efficiency at each of these test points. See RIA Chapter 2 for further
details.
Next we estimated unique brake-specific fuel consumption values for
each of the 13 SET test points for two hypothetical MY2018 tractor
engines that would be compliant with the Phase 1 standards. These were
a 15 liter displacement 455 horsepower engine and an 11 liter 350
horsepower engine. We then added technologies to these engines that we
determined were feasible for MY2021, MY2024, and MY 2027, and we
determined unique improvements at each of the 13 SET points. We then
calculated composite SET values for these hypothetical engines and
determined the SET improvements that we could use to propose more
stringent separate tractor engine standards for MY2021, MY2024, and MY
2027.
To align our engine technology analysis for vehicles to the SET
engine analysis described above, we then fit a surface equation through
each engine's SET points versus engine speed and load to approximate
their analogous fuel maps that would represent these same engines in
GEM. Because the 13 SET test points do not fully cover an engine's wide
range of possible operation, we also determined improvements for an
additional 6 points of engine operation to improve the creation of GEM
fuel maps for these engines. Then for each of these 8 tractor engines
(two each for MY2018, MY2021, MY2024, and MY2027) we ran GEM
simulations to represent low-, mid-, and high-roof sleeper cabs and
low-, mid-, and high-roof day cabs. Class 8 tractors were assumed for
the 455 horsepower engine and Class 7 tractors (day cabs only) were
assumed for the 350 horsepower engine. Each GEM simulation calculated
results for the 55 mph, 65 mph, and ARB Transient cycles, as well as
the composite GEM value associated with each of the tractor types.
After factoring in our Alternative 3 projected market penetrations of
the engine technologies, we then compared the percent improvements that
the same sets of engine technology caused over the separate engines'
SET composites and the various vehicles' GEM composites. Compared to
their respective MY2018 baseline engines, the two engines of different
horsepower showed the same percent improvements. All of the tractor cab
types showed nearly the same relative improvements too. For example,
for the MY2021 Alternative 3 engine technology package in a high roof
sleeper tractor, the SET engine composites showed a 1.5 percent
improvement and the GEM composites a 1.6 percent improvement. For the
MY2024 Alternative 3 engine technology packages, the SET engine
composites showed a 3.7 percent improvement and the GEM composites a
3.7 percent improvement. For MY2027 Alternative 3 engine technology
packages, the SET engine composites showed a 4.2 percent improvement
and the GEM composites a 4.2 percent improvement. We therefore
concluded that tractor engine technologies will improve engines and
tractors proportionally, even though the separate engine and vehicle
certification test procedures have different duty cycles.
We then repeated this same process for the FTP engine transient
cycle and the GEM vocational vehicle types. For the vocational engine
analysis we investigated four engines: 15 liter displacement engine at
455 horsepower rating, 11 liter displacement engine at 345 horsepower
rating, a 7 liter displacement engine at a 200 horsepower rating and a
270 horsepower rating. These engines were then used in GEM over the
light-heavy, medium-heavy, and heavy-heavy vocational vehicle
configurations. Because the technologies were assumed to impact each
point of the FTP in the same way, the results for all engines and
vehicles were 2.0 percent improvement in MY2021, 3.5 percent
improvement in MY2024, and 4.0 percent improvement in MY2027.
Therefore, we arrived at the same conclusion that vocational vehicle
engine technologies are recognized at the same percent improvement over
the FTP as the GEM cycles. We request comment on our approach to arrive
at this conclusion.
(d) Engine Technology Package Costs for Tractor and Vocational Engines
(and Vehicles)
As described in Chapters 2 and 7 of the draft RIA, the agencies
estimated costs for each of the engines technologies discussed here.
All costs
[[Page 40200]]
are presented relative to engines projected to comply with the model
year 2017 standards--i.e., relative to our baseline engines. Note that
we are not presenting any costs for gasoline engines (SI engines)
because we are not proposing to change the standards.
Our engine cost estimates include a separate analysis of the
incremental part costs, research and development activities, and
additional equipment. Our general approach used elsewhere in this
action (for HD pickup trucks, gasoline engines, Class 7 and 8 tractors,
and Class 2b-8 vocational vehicles) estimates a direct manufacturing
cost for a part and marks it up based on a factor to account for
indirect costs. See also 75 FR 25376. We believe that approach is
appropriate when compliance with proposed standards is achieved
generally by installing new parts and systems purchased from a
supplier. In such a case, the supplier is conducting the bulk of the
research and development on the new parts and systems and including
those costs in the purchase price paid by the original equipment
manufacturer. The indirect costs incurred by the original equipment
manufacturer need not include much cost to cover research and
development since the bulk of that effort is already done. For the MHD
and HHD diesel engine segment, however, the agencies believe that OEMs
will incur costs not associated with the purchase of parts or systems
from suppliers or even the production of the parts and systems, but
rather the development of the new technology by the original equipment
manufacturer itself. Therefore, the agencies have directly estimated
additional indirect costs to account for these development costs. The
agencies used the same approach in the Phase 1 HD rule. EPA commonly
uses this approach in cases where significant investments in research
and development can lead to an emission control approach that requires
no new hardware. For example, combustion optimization may significantly
reduce emissions and cost a manufacturer millions of dollars to develop
but would lead to an engine that is no more expensive to produce. Using
a bill of materials approach would suggest that the cost of the
emissions control was zero reflecting no new hardware and ignoring the
millions of dollars spent to develop the improved combustion system.
Details of the cost analysis are included in the draft RIA Chapter 2.
To reiterate, we have used this different approach because the MHD and
HHD diesel engines are expected to comply in part via technology
changes that are not reflected in new hardware but rather reflect
knowledge gained through laboratory and real world testing that allows
for improvements in control system calibrations--changes that are more
difficult to reflect through direct costs with indirect cost
multipliers. Note that these engines are also expected to incur new
hardware costs as shown in Table II-8 through Table II-11. EPA also
developed the incremental piece cost for the components to meet each of
the 2021 and 2024 standards. The costs shown in Table II-12 include a
low complexity ICM of 1.15 and assume the flat-portion of the learning
curve is applicable to each technology.
(i) Tractor Engine Package Costs
Table II-8--Proposed MY2021 Tractor Diesel Engine Component Costs
Inclusive of Indirect Cost Markups and Adoption Rates (2012$)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Medium HD Heavy HD
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Aftertreatment system (improved $7 $7
effectiveness SCR, dosing, DPF)........
Valve Actuation......................... 82 82
Cylinder Head (flow optimized, increased 3 3
firing pressure, improved thermal
management)............................
Turbocharger (improved efficiency)...... 9 9
Turbo Compounding....................... 50 50
EGR Cooler (improved efficiency)........ 2 2
Water Pump (optimized, variable vane, 43 43
variable speed)........................
Oil Pump (optimized).................... 2 2
Fuel Pump (higher working pressure, 2 2
increased efficiency, improved pressure
regulation)............................
Fuel Rail (higher working pressure)..... 5 5
Fuel Injector (optimized, improved 5 5
multiple event control, higher working
pressure)..............................
Piston (reduced friction skirt, ring and 1 1
pin)...................................
Valvetrain (reduced friction, roller 39 39
tappet)................................
Waste Heat Recovery..................... 105 105
``Right sized'' engine.................. -40 -40
-------------------------------
Total............................... 314 314
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note: ``Right sized'' diesel engine is a smaller, less costly engine
than the engine it replaces.
Table II-9--Proposed MY2024 Tractor Diesel Engine Component Costs
Inclusive of Indirect Cost Markups and Adoption Rates (2012$)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Medium HD Heavy HD
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Aftertreatment system (improved $14 $14
effectiveness SCR, dosing, DPF)........
Valve Actuation......................... 166 166
Cylinder Head (flow optimized, increased 6 6
firing pressure, improved thermal
management)............................
Turbocharger (improved efficiency)...... 17 17
Turbo Compounding....................... 92 92
EGR Cooler (improved efficiency)........ 3 3
Water Pump (optimized, variable vane, 84 84
variable speed)........................
Oil Pump (optimized).................... 4 4
Fuel Pump (higher working pressure, 4 4
increased efficiency, improved pressure
regulation)............................
Fuel Rail (higher working pressure)..... 9 9
Fuel Injector (optimized, improved 10 10
multiple event control, higher working
pressure)..............................
Piston (reduced friction skirt, ring and 3 3
pin)...................................
Valvetrain (reduced friction, roller 75 75
tappet)................................
[[Page 40201]]
Waste Heat Recovery..................... 502 502
``Right sized'' engine.................. -85 -85
-------------------------------
Total............................... 904 904
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note: ``Right sized'' diesel engine is a smaller, less costly engine
than the engine it replaces.
Table II-10--Proposed MY2027 Tractor Diesel Engine Component Costs
Inclusive of Indirect Cost Markups and Adoption Rates (2012$)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Medium HD Heavy HD
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Aftertreatment system (improved $14 $14
effectiveness SCR, dosing, DPF)........
Valve Actuation......................... 169 169
Cylinder Head (flow optimized, increased 6 6
firing pressure, improved thermal
management)............................
Turbocharger (improved efficiency)...... 17 17
Turbo Compounding....................... 87 87
EGR Cooler (improved efficiency)........ 3 3
Water Pump (optimized, variable vane, 84 84
variable speed)........................
Oil Pump (optimized).................... 4 4
Fuel Pump (higher working pressure, 4 4
increased efficiency, improved pressure
regulation)............................
Fuel Rail (higher working pressure)..... 9 9
Fuel Injector (optimized, improved 10 10
multiple event control, higher working
pressure)..............................
Piston (reduced friction skirt, ring and 3 3
pin)...................................
Valvetrain (reduced friction, roller 75 75
tappet)................................
Waste Heat Recovery..................... 1,340 1,340
``Right sized'' engine.................. -127 -127
-------------------------------
Total................................... 1,698 1,698
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note: ``Right sized'' diesel engine is a smaller, less costly engine
than the engine it replaces.
(ii) Vocational Diesel Engine Package Costs
Table II-11--Proposed MY2021 Vocational Diesel Engine Component Costs Inclusive of Indirect Cost Markups and
Adoption Rates (2012$)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Light HD Medium HD Heavy HD
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Aftertreatment system (improved effectiveness SCR, dosing, DPF). $8 $8 $8
Valve Actuation................................................. 91 91 91
Cylinder Head (flow optimized, increased firing pressure, 6 3 3
improved thermal management)...................................
Turbocharger (improved efficiency).............................. 10 10 10
EGR Cooler (improved efficiency)................................ 2 2 2
Water Pump (optimized, variable vane, variable speed)........... 57 57 57
Oil Pump (optimized)............................................ 3 3 3
Fuel Pump (higher working pressure, increased efficiency, 3 3 3
improved pressure regulation)..................................
Fuel Rail (higher working pressure)............................. 7 6 6
Fuel Injector (optimized, improved multiple event control, 8 6 6
higher working pressure).......................................
Piston (reduced friction skirt, ring and pin)................... 1 1 1
Valvetrain (reduced friction, roller tappet).................... 69 52 52
Model Based Controls............................................ 28 28 28
-----------------------------------------------
Total....................................................... 293 270 270
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table II-12--Proposed MY2024 Vocational Diesel Engine Component Costs Inclusive of Indirect Cost Markups and
Adoption Rates (2012$)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Light HD Medium HD Heavy HD
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Aftertreatment system (improved effectiveness SCR, dosing, DPF). $13 $13 $13
Valve Actuation................................................. 157 157 157
Cylinder Head (flow optimized, increased firing pressure, 10 6 6
improved thermal management)...................................
Turbocharger (improved efficiency).............................. 16 16 16
EGR Cooler (improved efficiency)................................ 3 3 3
Water Pump (optimized, variable vane, variable speed)........... 79 79 79
Oil Pump (optimized)............................................ 4 4 4
[[Page 40202]]
Fuel Pump (higher working pressure, increased efficiency, 4 4 4
improved pressure regulation)..................................
Fuel Rail (higher working pressure)............................. 10 9 9
Fuel Injector (optimized, improved multiple event control, 13 10 10
higher working pressure).......................................
Piston (reduced friction skirt, ring and pin)................... 2 2 2
Valvetrain (reduced friction, roller tappet).................... 95 71 71
Model Based Controls............................................ 31 31 31
-----------------------------------------------
Total....................................................... 437 405 405
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table II-13--Proposed MY2027 Vocational Diesel Engine Component Costs Inclusive of Indirect Cost Markups and
Adoption Rates (2012$)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Light HD Medium HD Heavy HD
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Aftertreatment system (improved effectiveness SCR, dosing, DPF). $14 $14 $14
Valve Actuation................................................. 169 169 169
Cylinder Head (flow optimized, increased firing pressure, 10 6 6
improved thermal management)...................................
Turbocharger (improved efficiency).............................. 17 17 17
EGR Cooler (improved efficiency)................................ 3 3 3
Water Pump (optimized, variable vane, variable speed)........... 84 84 84
Oil Pump (optimized)............................................ 4 4 4
Fuel Pump (higher working pressure, increased efficiency, 4 4 4
improved pressure regulation)..................................
Fuel Rail (higher working pressure)............................. 11 9 9
Fuel Injector (optimized, improved multiple event control, 13 10 10
higher working pressure).......................................
Piston (reduced friction skirt, ring and pin)................... 3 3 3
Valvetrain (reduced friction, roller tappet).................... 100 75 75
Model Based Controls............................................ 39 39 39
-----------------------------------------------
Total....................................................... 471 437 437
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(e) Feasibility of Phasing In the CO2 and Fuel Consumption
Standards Sooner
The agencies are requesting comment on accelerated standards for
diesel engines that would achieve the same reductions as the proposed
standards, but with less lead time. Table II-14 and Table II-15 below
show a technology path that the agencies project could be used to
achieve the reductions that would be required within the lead time
allowed by the alternative standards. As discussed in Sections I and X,
the agencies are proposing to fully phase in these standards through
2027. The agencies believe that standards that fully phase in through
2024 have the potential to be the maximum feasible and appropriate
option. However, based on the evidence currently before the agencies,
we have outstanding questions (for which we are seeking comment)
regarding relative risks and benefits of that option in the timeframe
envisioned. Commenters are encouraged to address how technologies could
develop if a shorter lead time is selected. In particular, we request
comment on the likelihood that WHR systems would be available for
tractor engines in this time frame, and that WHR systems would achieve
the projected level of reduction and the necessary reliability. We also
request comment on whether it would be possible to apply the model
based controls described in Section II.D.(2) (a)(i) to this many
vocational engines in this time frame.
Table II-14--Projected Tractor Engine Technologies and Reduction for Alternative 4 Standards
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Market Market
%-Improvements beyond Phase 1, 2018 engine as baseline SET reduction penetration MY penetration MY
(%) 2021 (%) 2024 (%)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Turbo compound.................................................. 1.82 5 10
WHR (Rankine cycle)............................................. 3.58 4 15
Parasitics/Friction (Cyl Kits, pumps, FIE), lubrication......... 1.41 60 100
Aftertreatment.................................................. 0.61 60 100
Exhaust Manifold Turbo Efficiency EGR Cooler VVT................ 1.14 60 100
Combustion/FI/Control........................................... 1.11 60 100
Downsizing...................................................... 0.29 20 30
-------------------------------
Market Penetration Weighted Package............................................. 2.1 4.2
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
[[Page 40203]]
Table II-15--Projected Vocational Engine Technologies and Reduction for More Stringent Alternative Standards
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Market Market
%-Improvements beyond Phase 1, 2018 engine as baseline FTP reduction penetration MY penetration MY
(%) 2021 (%) 2024 (%)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Model based control............................................. 2 30 40
Parasitics/Friction............................................. 1.5 70 100
EGR/Air/VVT/Turbo............................................... 1 70 100
Improved AT..................................................... 0.5 70 100
Combustion Optimization......................................... 1 70 100
Weighted reduction (%)-L/MHD/HHD................................ .............. 2.5 4.0
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The projected HDD engine package costs for both tractors and
vocational engines in MYs 2021 and 2024 under Alternative 4 are shown
in Table II-16. Note that, while the technology application rates in
MY2024 under Alternative 4 are essentially identical to those for
MY2027 under the proposal, the costs are about 5 to 11 percent higher
under Alternative 4 due to learning effects and markup changes that are
estimated to have occurred by MY2027 under Alternative 3. Note also
that the agencies did not include any additional costs for accelerating
technology development or to address potential in-use durability
issues. We request comment on whether such costs would occur if we
finalized this alternative. We also request comment on what steps could
be taken to mitigate such costs.
Table II-16--Expected Package Costs for HD Diesel Engines under Alternative 4 (2012$) \a\
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LHDD MHDD HHDD
Model year MHDD tractor HHDD tractor vocational vocational vocational
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2021............................ $656 $656 $372 $345 $345
2024............................ 1,885 1,885 493 457 457
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note:
\a\ Costs presented here include application rates.
The agencies' analysis shows that, in the absence of additional
costs for accelerating technology development or to address potential
in-use durability issues, the costs associated with Alternative 4 would
be very similar to those we project for the proposed standards.
Alternative 4 would also have similar payback times and cost-
effectiveness. In other words, Alternative 4 would achieve some
additional reductions for model years 2021 through 2026, with roughly
proportional additional costs unless there were additional costs for
accelerating development or for in-use durability issues. (Note that
reductions and costs for MY 2027 and later would be equivalent for
Alternative 4 and the proposed standards). In order to help make this
assessment, we request comment on the following issues: whether
manufacturers could meet these standards with three years less lead
time, what additional expenses would be incurred to meet these
standards with less lead time, and how reliable would the engines be if
the manufacturers had to bring them to market three years earlier.
(3) Proposed EPA Engine Standards for N2O
EPA is proposing to adopt the MY 2021 N2O engine
standards that were originally proposed for Phase 1. The proposed level
for Phase 2 would be 0.05 g/hp-hr with a default deterioration factor
of 0.01 g/hp-hr, which we believe is technologically feasible because a
number of engines meet this level today. This level of stringency is
consistent with the agency's Phase 1 approach to set ``cap'' standards
for N2O. EPA finalized Phase 1 standards for N2O
as engine-based standards at 0.10 g/hp-hr and a 0.02 g/hp-hr default
deterioration factor because the agency believes that emissions of this
GHG are technologically related solely to the engine, fuel, and
emissions aftertreatment systems, and the agency is not aware of any
influence of vehicle-based technologies on these emissions. We continue
to believe this approach is appropriate, but we believe that more
stringent standards are appropriate to ensure that N2O
emissions do not increase in the future. Note that NHTSA did not adopt
standards for N2O because these emissions do not impact fuel
consumption in a significant way, and is not proposing such standards
for Phase 2 for the same reason.
We are proposing this change at no additional cost and no
additional benefit because manufacturers are generally meeting the
proposed standard today. The purpose of this standard is to prevent
increases in N2O emissions absent this proposed increase in
stringency. We request comment on whether or not we should be
considering additional costs for compliance. Similarly, we request
comment on whether or not we should assume N2O increases in
our ``No Action'' regulatory Alternatives 1a and 1b described in
Section X.
Although N2O is emitted in very small amounts, it can
have a very significant impact on the climate. The global warming
potential (GWP) of one molecule of N2O is 298 times that of
one molecule CO2. Because N2O and CO2
coincidentally have the same molar mass, this means that one gram of
N2O would have the same impact on the climate as 298 grams
of CO2. To further put this into perspective, the difference
between the proposed N2O standard (and deterioration factor)
and the current Phase 1 standard is 0.40 g/hp-hr of N2O
emissions. This is equivalent to 11.92 g/hp-hr CO2. Over the
same certification test cycle (i.e. EPA's HD FTP) the Phase 1 engine
CO2 emissions standard ranges from 460 to 576 g/hp-hr,
depending on the service class of the engine. Therefore, absent today's
proposed action, engine N2O increases equivalent to 2.1 to
2.6 percent of the Phase 1 CO2 standard could occur.
We are proposing this lower cap because we have determined that
[[Page 40204]]
manufacturers generally are meeting this level today but in the future
could increase N2O emissions up to the current Phase 1 cap
standard. Because we do not believe any manufacturer would need to do
anything more than recalibrate their SCR systems to comply, the lead
time being provided would be sufficient. This section later describes
why manufacturers may increase N2O emissions from SCR-
equipped compression-ignition engines in the absence of a lower
N2O cap standard. We request comment on this. We also note
that, as described in Section XI, EPA does not believe there is a
similar opportunity to lower the pickup and van N2O standard
because it was set at a more stringent level in Phase 1.
(a) N2O Formation
N2O formation in modern diesel engines is a by-product
of the SCR process. It is dependent on the SCR catalyst type, the
NO2 to NOX ratio, the level of NOX
reduction required, and the concentration of the reactants in the
system (NH3 to NOX ratio).
Two current engine/aftertreatment designs are driving
N2O emission higher. The first is an increase in engine out
NOX, which puts a higher NOX reduction burden on
the SCR NOX emission control system. The second is an
increase in NO2 formation from the diesel oxidation catalyst
(DOC) located upstream of the passive catalyzed diesel particulate
filter (CDPF). This increase in NO2 serves two functions:
Improving passive CDPF regeneration and optimization of faster SCR
reaction.\107\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\107\ Hallstrom, K., Voss, K., and Shah, S., ``The Formation of
N2O on the SCR Catalyst in a Heavy Duty US 2010 Emission
Control System'', SAE Technical Paper 2013-01-2463.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
There are multiple mechanisms through which N2O can form
in an SCR system:
1. Low temperature formation of N2O over the DOC prior
to the SCR catalyst.
2. Low temperature formation of NH4NO3 with
subsequent decomposition as exhaust temperatures increase, leading to
conversion to N2O over the SCR catalyst.
3. Formation of N2O from NO2 over the SCR
catalyst at NO2 to NO ratios greater than 1:1.
N2O formation increases significantly at 300 to 350 [deg]C.
4. Formation of N2O from NH3 via partial
oxidation over the ammonia slip catalyst.
5. High-temperature N2O formation over the SCR catalyst
due to NH3 oxidation facilitated by high SCR catalyst
surface coverage of NH3.
Thus, as discussed below, control of N2O formation
requires precise optimization of SCR controls including thermal
management and dosing rates, as well as catalyst composition.
(b) N2O Emission Reduction
Through on-engine and reactor bench experiments, this same work
showed that the key to reducing N2O emissions lies in
intelligent emission control system design and operation, namely:
1. Selecting the appropriate DOC and/or CDPF catalyst loadings to
maintain NO2 to NO ratios at or below 1:1.
2. Avoiding high catalyst surface coverage of NH3 though
urea dosing management when the system is in the ideal N2O
formation window.
3. Utilizing thermal management to push the SCR inlet temperature
outside of the N2O low-temperature formation window.
EPA believes that reducing the standard from 0.1 g/hp-hr to 0.05 g/
hp-hr is feasible because most engines have emission rates that would
meet this standard today and the others could meet it with minor
calibration changes at no additional cost. Numerous studies have shown
that diesel engine technologies can be fine-tuned to meet the current
NOX and proposed N2O standards while still
providing passive CDPF regeneration even with earlier generations of
SCR systems. Currently model year 2014 systems have already moved on to
newer generation systems in which the combined CDPF and SCR functions
have been further optimized. The result of this is 18 of 24 engines in
the EPA 2014 certification database emitting N2O at less
than half of the 2014 standard, and thus below the proposed
standard.\108\ Given the discussions in the literature, there are still
additional calibration steps that can be taken to further reduce
N2O emissions for the higher emitters to afford an adequate
compliance margin and room to account for deterioration, without having
an adverse effect on criteria pollutant emissions.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\108\ https://www.epa.gov/otaq/crttst.htm.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
[[Page 40205]]
[GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] TP13JY15.001
It is important to note, however, that there is a trade off when
trying to optimize SCR systems to achieve peak NOX reduction
efficiencies. When transitioning from a <93 percent efficient MY 2011
system to a 98 percent efficient system of the future, lowering the
N2O cap to 0.05 g/hp-hr would put constraints on the
techniques that can be applied to improve efficiency. If system
designers push the NH3 to NOX ratio higher to try
and achieve the maximum possible NOX reduction, it could
increase N2O emissions. If EPA were to adopt a very low
NOX standard (e.g., 0.02 g/hp-hr) over existing test cycles,
some reductions would be needed throughout the hot portion of the cycle
(although most of the reductions would have to come from the cold start
portion of the test cycle). Thermal management would need to play a key
role, and reducing catalyst light-off time would move the SCR catalyst
through the ammonium nitrate formation and decomposition thermal range
quicker, thus lowering N2O emissions. An increase in the
NH3 to NOX ratio could also further reduce
NOX emissions; however this would also adversely affect
NH3 slip and N2O formation. The inability of
NH3 slip catalysts to handle the increased NH3
load and the EPA NH3 slip limit of 10 ppm would guard
against this NH3 to NOX ratio increase, and thus
subsequent N2O increase.
In summary, EPA believes that engine manufacturers would be able to
respond with highly efficient NOX reducing systems that can
meet the proposed lower N2O cap of 0.05 g/hp-hr with no
additional cost or lead time. When optimizing SCR systems for better
NOX reduction efficiency, that optimization includes
lowering the emissions of undesirable side reactions, including those
that form N2O.
(4) EPA Engine Standards for Methane
EPA is proposing to apply the Phase 1 methane engine standards to
the Phase 2 program. EPA adopted the cap standards for CH4
(along with N2O standards) as engine-based standards because
the agency believes that emissions of this GHG are technologically
related solely to the engine, fuel, and emissions aftertreatment
systems, and the agency is not aware of any influence of vehicle-based
technologies on these emissions. Note that NHTSA did not adopt
standards for CH4 (or N2O) because these
emissions do not impact fuel consumption in a significant way, and is
not proposing CH4 standards for Phase 2 either.
EPA continues to believe that manufacturers of most engine
technologies will be able to comply with the Phase 1 CH4
standard with no technological improvements. We note that we are not
aware of any new technologies that would allow us to adopt more
stringent standards at this time. We request comment on this.
(5) Compliance Provisions and Flexibilities for Engine Standards
The agencies are proposing to continue most of the Phase 1
compliance provisions and flexibilities for the Phase 2 engine
standards.
(a) Averaging, Banking, and Trading
The agencies' general approach to averaging is discussed in Section
I. We are not proposing to offer any special credits to engine
manufacturers. Except for early credits and advanced technology
credits, the agencies propose to retain all Phase 1 credit
flexibilities and limitations to continue for use in the Phase 2
program.
As discussed below, EPA is proposing to change the useful life for
LHD
[[Page 40206]]
engines for GHG emissions from the current 10 years/110,000 miles to 15
years/150,000 miles to be consistent with the useful life of criteria
pollutants recently updated in EPA's Tier 3 rule. In order to ensure
that banked credits would maintain their value in the transition from
Phase 1 to Phase 2, NHTSA and EPA propose an adjustment factor of 1.36
(i.e., 150,000 mile / 110,000 miles) for credits that are carried
forward from Phase 1 to the MY 2021 and later Phase 2 standards.
Without this adjustment factor the proposed change in useful life would
effectively result in a discount of banked credits that are carried
forward from Phase 1 to Phase 2, which is not the intent of the change
in the useful life. See Sections V and VI for additional discussion of
similar adjustments of vehicle-based credits.
(b) Request for Comment on Changing Global Warming Potential Values in
the Credit Program for CH4 and N2O
The Phase 1 rule included a compliance alternative allowing heavy-
duty manufacturers and conversion companies to comply with the
respective methane or nitrous oxide standards by means of over-
complying with CO2 standards (40 CFR 1036.705(d)). The
heavy-duty rules allow averaging only between vehicles or engines of
the same designated type (referred to as an ``averaging set'' in the
rules). Specifically, the phase 1 heavy-duty rulemaking added a
CO2 credits program which allowed heavy-duty manufacturers
to average and bank pollutant emissions to comply with the methane and
nitrous oxide requirements after adjusting the CO2 emission
credits based on the relative GHG equivalents. To establish the GHG
equivalents used by the CO2 credits program, the Phase 1
rule incorporated the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report global warming
potential (GWP) values of 25 for CH4 and 298 for
N2O, which are assessed over a 100 year lifetime.
Since the Phase 1 rule was finalized, a new IPCC report has been
released (the Fifth Assessment Report), with new GWP estimates. This is
prompting us to look again at the relative CO2 equivalency
of methane and nitrous oxide and to seek comment on whether the methane
and nitrous oxide GWPs used to establish the GHG equivalency value for
the CO2 Credit program should be updated to those
established by IPCC in its Fifth Assessment Report. The Fifth
Assessment Report provides four 100 year GWPs for methane ranging from
28 to 36 and two 100 year GWPs for nitrous oxide, either 265 or 298.
Therefore, we not only request comment on whether to update the GWP for
methane and nitrous oxide to that of the Fifth Assessment Report, but
also on which value to use from this report.
(c) In-Use Compliance and Useful Life
Consistent with Section 202(a)(1) and 202 (d) of the CAA, for Phase
1, EPA established in-use standards for heavy-duty engines. Based on
our assessment of testing variability and other relevant factors, we
established in-use standards by adding a 3 percent adjustment factor to
the full useful life emissions and fuel consumption results measured in
the EPA certification process to address measurement variability
inherent in comparing results among different laboratories and
different engines. See 40 CFR part 1036. The agencies are not proposing
to change this for Phase 2, but request comment on whether this
allowance is still necessary.
We note that in Phase 1, we applied these standards to only certain
engine configurations in each engine family (often called the parent
rating). We welcome comment on whether the agencies should set Phase 2
CO2 and fuel consumption standards for the other ratings
(often called the child ratings) within an engine family. We are not
proposing specific engine standards for child ratings in Phase 2
because we are proposing to include the actual engine's fuel map in the
vehicle certification. We believe this approach appropriately addresses
our concern that manufacturers control CO2 emissions and
fuel consumption from all in-use engine configurations within an engine
family.
In Phase 1, EPA set the useful life for engines and vehicles with
respect to GHG emissions equal to the respective useful life periods
for criteria pollutants. In April 2014, as part of the Tier 3 light-
duty vehicle final rule, EPA extended the regulatory useful life period
for criteria pollutants to 150,000 miles or 15 years, whichever comes
first, for Class 2b and 3 pickup trucks and vans and some light-duty
trucks (79 FR 23414, April 28, 2014). As described in Section V, EPA is
proposing that the Phase 2 GHG standards for vocational vehicles at or
below 19,500 lbs GVWR apply over the same useful life of 150,000 miles
or 15 years. To be consistent with that proposed change, we are also
proposing that the Phase 2 GHG standards for engines used in vocational
vehicles at or below 19,500 lbs GVWR apply over the same useful life of
150,000 miles or 15 years. NHTSA proposes to use the same useful life
values as EPA for all vocational vehicles.
We are proposing to continue regulatory allowance in 40 CFR
1036.150(g) that allows engine manufacturers to use assigned
deterioration factors (DFs) for most engines without performing their
own durability emission tests or engineering analysis. However, the
engines would still be required to meet the standards in actual use
without regard to whether the manufacturer used the assigned DFs. This
allowance is being continued as an interim provision and may be
discontinued for later phases of standards as more information becomes
known. Manufacturers are allowed to use an assigned additive DF of 0.0
g/bhp-hr for CO2 emissions from any conventional engine
(i.e., an engine not including advance or off-cycle technologies). Upon
request, we could allow the assigned DF for CO2 emissions
from engines including advance or off-cycle technologies, but only if
we determine that it would be consistent with good engineering
judgment. We believe that we have enough information about in-use
CO2 emissions from conventional engines to conclude that
they will not increase as the engines age. However, we lack such
information about the more advanced technologies.
We are also requesting comment on how to apply DFs to low level
measurements where test-to-test variability may be larger than the
actual deterioration rates being measured, such as might occur with
N2O. Should we allow statistical analysis to be used to
identifying trends rather than basing the DF on the highest measured
value? How would we allow this where emission deterioration is not
linear, such as saw-tooth deterioration related to maintenance or other
offsetting emission effects causing emissions to peak before the end of
the useful life? Finally, EPA requests comment on whether a similar
allowance would be appropriate for criteria pollutants as well.
(d) Alternate CO2 Standards
In the Phase 1 rulemaking, the agencies proposed provisions to
allow certification to alternate CO2 engine standards in
model years 2014 through 2016. This flexibility was intended to address
the special case of needed lead time to implement new standards for a
previously unregulated pollutant. Since that special case does not
apply for Phase 2, we are not proposing a similar flexibility in this
rulemaking. We also request comment on whether this allowance should be
eliminated for Phase 1 engines.
[[Page 40207]]
(e) Proposed Approach to Standards and Compliance Provisions for
Natural Gas Engines
EPA is also proposing certain clarifying changes to its rules
regarding classification of natural gas engines. This proposal relates
to standards for all emissions, both greenhouse gases and criteria
pollutants. These clarifying changes are intended to reflect the status
quo, and therefore should not have any associated costs.
EPA emission standards have always applied differently for
gasoline-fueled and diesel-fueled engines. The regulations in 40 CFR
part 86 implement these distinctions by dividing engines into Otto-
cycle and Diesel-cycle technologies. This approach led EPA to
categorize natural gas engines according to their design history. A
diesel engine converted to run on natural gas was classified as a
diesel-cycle engine; a gasoline engine converted to run on natural gas
was classified as an Otto-cycle engine.
The Phase 1 rule described our plan to transition to a different
approach, consistent with our nonroad programs, in which we divide
engines into compression-ignition and spark-ignition technologies based
only on the operating characteristics of the engines.\109\ However, the
Phase 1 rule included a provision allowing us to continue with the
historic approach on an interim basis.
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\109\ See 40 CFR 1036.108.
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Under the existing EPA regulatory definitions of ``compression-
ignition'' and ``spark-ignition'', a natural gas engine would generally
be considered compression-ignition if it operates with lean air-fuel
mixtures and uses a pilot injection of diesel fuel to initiate
combustion, and would generally be considered spark-ignition if it
operates with stoichiometric air-fuel mixtures and uses a spark plug to
initiate combustion.
EPA's basic premise here is that natural gas engines performing
similar in-use functions should be subject to similar regulatory
requirements. The compression-ignition emission standards and testing
requirements reflect the operating characteristics for the full range
of heavy-duty vehicles, including substantial operation in long-haul
service characteristic of tractors. The spark-ignition emission
standards and testing requirements do not include some of those
provisions related to use in long-haul service or other applications
where diesel engines predominate, such as steady-state testing, Not-to-
Exceed standards, and extended useful life. We believe it would be
inappropriate to apply the spark-ignition standards and requirements to
natural gas engines that would be used in applications mostly served by
diesel engines today. We are therefore proposing to replace the interim
provision described above with a differentiated approach to
certification of natural gas engines across all of the EPA standards--
for both GHGs and criteria pollutants. Under the proposed clarifying
amendment, we would require manufacturers to divide all their natural
gas engines into primary intended service classes, as we already
require for compression-ignition engines, whether or not the engine has
features that otherwise could (in theory) result in classification as
SI under the current rules. Any natural gas engine qualifying as a
medium heavy-duty engine (19,500 to 33,000 lbs GVWR) or a heavy heavy-
duty engine (over 33,000 lbs GVWR) would be subject to all the emission
standards and other requirements that apply to compression-ignition
engines.
Table II-17 describes the provisions that would apply differently
for compression-ignition and spark-ignition engines:
Table II-17--Regulatory Provisions That Are Different for Compression-
Ignition and Spark-Ignition Engines
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Provision Compression-ignition Spark-ignition
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Transient duty cycle.......... 40 CFR part 86, 40 CFR part 86,
Appendix I, paragraph Appendix I,
(f)(2) cycle; divide paragraph
by 1.12 to de- (f)(1) cycle.
normalize.
Ramped-modal test (SET)....... yes................... no.
NTE standards................. yes................... no.
Smoke standard................ yes................... no.
Manufacturer-run in-use yes................... no.
testing.
ABT--pollutants............... NOX, PM............... NOX, NMHC.
ABT-- transient conversion 6.5................... 6.3.
factor.
ABT--averaging set............ Separate averaging One averaging
sets for light, set for all SI
medium, and heavy engines.
HDDE.
Useful life................... 110,000 miles for 110,000 miles
light HDDE.
185,000 miles for
medium HDDE..
435,000 miles for
heavy HDDE..
Warranty...................... 50,000 miles for light 50,000 miles.
HDDE.
100,000 miles for
medium HDDE..
100,000 miles for
heavy HDDE..
Detailed AECD description..... yes................... no.
Test engine selection......... highest injected fuel most likely to
volume. exceed emission
standards.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
The onboard diagnostic requirements already differentiate
requirements by fuel type, so there is no need for those provisions to
change based on the considerations of this section.
We are not aware of any currently certified engines that would
change from compression-ignition to spark-ignition under the proposed
clarified approach. Nonetheless, because these proposed standards
implicate rules for criteria pollutants (as well as GHGs), the
provisions of CAA section 202(a)(3)(C) apply (for the criteria
pollutants), notably the requirement of four years lead time. We are
therefore proposing to continue to apply the existing interim provision
through model year 2020.\110\
[[Page 40208]]
Starting in model year 2021, all the provisions would apply as
described above. Manufacturers would not be permitted to certify any
engine families using carryover emission data if a particular engine
model switched from compression-ignition to spark-ignition, or vice
versa. However, as noted above, in practice these vehicles are already
being certified as CI engines, so we view these changes as
clarifications ratifying the current status quo.
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\110\ Section 202(a)(2), applicable to emissions of greenhouse
gases, does not mandate a specific period of lead time, but EPA sees
no reason for a different compliance date here for GHGs and criteria
pollutants. This is also true with respect to the closed crankcase
emission discussed in the following subsection.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
We are also proposing that these provisions would apply equally to
engines fueled by any fuel other than gasoline or ethanol, should such
engines be produced in the future. Given the current and historic
market for vehicles above 19,500 lbs GVWR, EPA believes any
alternative-fueled vehicles in this weight range would be competing
primarily with diesel vehicles and should be subject to the same
requirements as them. We request comment on all aspects of classifying
natural-gas and other engines for purposes of applying emission
standards. See Sections XI and XII for additional discussion of natural
gas fueled engines.
(f) Crankcase Emissions From Natural Gas Engines
EPA is proposing one fuel-specific provision for natural gas
engines, likewise applicable to all pollutant emissions, both GHGs and
criteria pollutant emissions. Note that we are also proposing other
vehicle-level emissions controls for the natural gas storage tanks and
refueling connections. These are presented in Section XIII.
EPA is proposing to require that all natural gas-fueled engines
have closed crankcases, rather than continuing the provision that
allows venting to the atmosphere all crankcase emissions from all
compression-ignition engines. This has been allowed as long as these
vented crankcase emissions are measured and accounted for as part of an
engine's tailpipe emissions. This allowance has historically been in
place to address the technical limitations related to recirculating
diesel-fueled engines' crankcase emissions, which have high PM
emissions, back into the engine's air intake. High PM emissions vented
into the intake of an engine can foul turbocharger compressors and
aftercooler heat exchangers. In contrast, historically EPA has mandated
closed crankcase technology on all gasoline fueled engines and all
natural gas spark-ignition engines.\111\ The inherently low PM
emissions from these engines posed no technical barrier to a closed
crankcase mandate. Because natural gas-fueled compression ignition
engines also have inherently low PM emissions, there is no
technological limitation that would prevent manufacturers from closing
the crankcase and recirculating all crankcase gases into a natural gas-
fueled compression ignition engine's air intake. We are requesting
comment on the costs and effectiveness of technologies that we have
identified to comply with these provisions. In addition, EPA is
proposing that this revised standard not take effect until the 2021
model year, consistent with the requirement of section 202(a)(3)(C) to
provide four years lead time.
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\111\ See 40 CFR 86.008-10(c).
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III. Class 7 and 8 Combination Tractors
Class 7 and 8 combination tractors-trailers contribute the largest
portion of the total GHG emissions and fuel consumption of the heavy-
duty sector, approximately two-thirds, due to their large payloads,
their high annual miles traveled, and their major role in national
freight transport.\112\ These vehicles consist of a cab and engine
(tractor or combination tractor) and a trailer.\113\ In general,
reducing GHG emissions and fuel consumption for these vehicles would
involve improvements to all aspects of the vehicle.
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\112\ The on-highway Class 7 and 8 combination tractor-trailers
constitute the vast majority of this regulatory category. A small
fraction of combination tractors are used in off-road applications
and are regulated differently, as described in Section III.C.
\113\ ``Tractor'' is defined in 49 CFR 571.3 to mean ``a truck
designed primarily for drawing other motor vehicles and not so
constructed as to carry a load other than a part of the weight of
the vehicle and the load so drawn.''
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As we found during the development in Phase 1 and as continues to
be true in the industry today, the heavy-duty combination tractor-
trailer industry consists of separate tractor manufacturers and trailer
manufacturers. We are not aware of any manufacturer that typically
assembles both the finished truck and the trailer and introduces the
combination into commerce for sale to a buyer. There are also large
differences in the kinds of manufacturers involved with producing
tractors and trailers. For HD highway tractors and their engines, a
relatively limited number of manufacturers produce the vast majority of
these products. The trailer manufacturing industry is quite different,
and includes a large number of companies, many of which are relatively
small in size and production volume. Setting standards for the products
involved--tractors and trailers--requires recognition of the large
differences between these manufacturing industries, which can then
warrant consideration of different regulatory approaches. Thus,
although tractor-trailers operate essentially as a unit from both a
commercial standpoint and for purposes of fuel efficiency and
CO2 emissions, the agencies have developed separate proposed
standards for each.
Based on these industry characteristics, EPA and NHTSA believe that
the most appropriate regulatory approach for combination tractors and
trailers is to establish standards for tractors separately from
trailers. As discussed below in Section IV, the agencies are also
proposing standards for certain types of trailers.
A. Summary of the Phase 1 Tractor Program
The design of each tractor's cab and drivetrain determines the
amount of power that the engine must produce in moving the truck and
its payload down the road. As illustrated in Figure III-1, the loads
that require additional power from the engine include air resistance
(aerodynamics), tire rolling resistance, and parasitic losses
(including accessory loads and friction in the drivetrain). The
importance of the engine design is that it determines the basic GHG
emissions and fuel consumption performance for the variety of demands
placed on the vehicle, regardless of the characteristics of the cab in
which it is installed.
[[Page 40209]]
[GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] TP13JY15.002
Accordingly, for Class 7 and 8 combination tractors, the agencies
adopted two sets of Phase 1 tractor standards for fuel consumption and
CO2 emissions. The CO2 emission and fuel
consumption reductions related to engine technologies are recognized in
the engine standards. For vehicle-related emissions and fuel
consumption, tractor manufacturers are required to meet vehicle-based
standards. Compliance with the vehicle standard must be determined
using the GEM vehicle simulation tool.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\114\ Adapted from Figure 4.1. Class 8 Truck Energy Audit,
Technology Roadmap for the 21st Century Truck Program: A Government-
Industry Research Partnership, 21CT-001, December 2000.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
The Phase 1 tractor standards were based on several key attributes
related to GHG emissions and fuel consumption that reasonably represent
the many differences in utility and performance among these vehicles.
Attribute-based standards in general recognize the variety of functions
performed by vehicles and engines, which in turn can affect the kind of
technology that is available to control emissions and reduce fuel
consumption, or its effectiveness. Attributes that characterize
differences in the design of vehicles, as well as differences in how
the vehicles will be employed in-use, can be key factors in evaluating
technological improvements for reducing CO2 emissions and
fuel consumption. Developing an appropriate attribute-based standard
can also avoid interfering with the ability of the market to offer a
variety of products to meet the customer's demand. The Phase 1 tractor
standards differ depending on GVWR (i.e., whether the truck is Class 7
or Class 8), the height of the roof of the cab, and whether it is a
``day cab'' or a ``sleeper cab.'' These later two attributes are
important because the height of the roof, designed to correspond to the
height of the trailer, significantly affects air resistance, and a
sleeper cab generally corresponds to the opportunity for extended
duration idle emission and fuel consumption improvements. Based on
these attributes, the agencies created nine subcategories within the
Class 7 and 8 combination tractor category. The Phase 1 rules set
standards for each of them. Phase 1 standards began with the 2014 model
year and were followed with more stringent standards following in model
year 2017.\115\ The standards represent an overall fuel consumption and
CO2 emissions reduction up to 23 percent from the tractors
and the engines installed in them when compared to a baseline 2010
model year tractor and engine without idle shutdown technology.
Although the EPA and NHTSA standards are expressed differently (grams
of CO2 per ton-mile and gallons per 1,000 ton-mile
respectively), the standards are equivalent.
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\115\ Manufacturers may voluntarily opt-in to the NHTSA fuel
consumption standards in model years 2014 or 2015. Once a
manufacturer opts into the NHTSA program it must stay in the program
for all optional MYs.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
In Phase 1, the agencies allowed manufacturers to certify certain
types of combination tractors as vocational vehicles. These are
tractors that do not typically operate at highway speeds, or would
otherwise not benefit from efficiency improvements designed for line-
haul tractors (although standards would still apply to the engines
installed in these vehicles). The agencies created a subcategory of
``vocational tractors,'' or referred to as ``special purpose tractors''
in 40 CFR part 1037, because real world operation of these tractors is
better represented by our Phase 1 vocational vehicle duty cycle than
the tractor duty cycles. Vocational tractors are subject to the
standards for vocational vehicles rather than the combination tractor
standards. In addition, specific vocational tractors and heavy-duty
vocational vehicles primarily designed to perform work off-road or
having tires installed with a maximum speed rating at or below 55 mph
are exempted from the Phase 1 standards.
In Phase 1, the agencies also established separate performance
standards for the engines manufactured for use in these tractors. EPA's
engine-based CO2 standards and NHTSA's engine-based fuel
consumption standards are being implemented using EPA's existing test
procedures and regulatory structure for criteria pollutant emissions
from medium- and heavy-duty engines. These engine standards vary
depending on engine size linked to intended vehicle service class
(which are the same service classes used for many years for EPA's
criteria pollutant standards).
Manufacturers demonstrate compliance with the Phase 1 tractor
standards using the GEM simulation tool. As explained in Section II
above, GEM is a customized vehicle simulation model which is the
preferred approach to demonstrating compliance testing for combination
tractors rather than chassis dynamometer testing used in light-duty
vehicle compliance. As discussed in the development of HD Phase 1 and
recommended by the NAS 2010 study,
[[Page 40210]]
a simulation tool is the preferred approach for HD tractor compliance
because of the extremely large number of vehicle configurations.\116\
The GEM compliance tool was developed by EPA and is an accurate and
cost-effective alternative to measuring emissions and fuel consumption
while operating the vehicle on a chassis dynamometer. Instead of using
a chassis dynamometer as an indirect way to evaluate real world
operation and performance, various characteristics of the vehicle are
measured and these measurements are used as inputs to the model. For HD
Phase 1, these characteristics relate to key technologies appropriate
for this category of truck including aerodynamic features, weight
reductions, tire rolling resistance, the presence of idle-reducing
technology, and vehicle speed limiters. The model also assumes the use
of a representative typical engine in compliance with the separate,
applicable Phase 1 engine standard. Using these inputs, the model is
used to quantify the overall performance of the vehicle in terms of
CO2 emissions and fuel consumption. CO2 emission
reduction and fuel consumption technologies not measured by the model
must be evaluated separately, and the HD Phase 1 rules establish
mechanisms allowing credit for such ``off-cycle'' technologies.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\116\ National Academy of Science. ``Technologies and Approaches
to Reducing the Fuel Consumption of Medium- and Heavy-Duty
Vehicles.'' 2010. Recommendation 8-4 stated ``Simulation modeling
should be used with component test data and additional tested inputs
from powertrain tests, which could lower the cost and administrative
burden yet achieve the needed accuracy of results.''
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In addition to the final Phase 1 tractor-based standards for
CO2, EPA adopted a separate standard to reduce leakage of
HFC refrigerant from cabin air conditioning (A/C) systems from
combination tractors, to apply to the tractor manufacturer. This HFC
leakage standard is independent of the CO2 tractor standard.
Manufacturers can choose technologies from a menu of leak-reducing
technologies sufficient to comply with the standard, as opposed to
using a test to measure performance.
The Phase 1 program also provided several flexibilities to advance
the goals of the overall program while providing alternative pathways
to achieve compliance. The primary flexibility is the averaging,
banking, and trading program which allows emissions and fuel
consumption credits to be averaged within an averaging set, banked for
up to five years, or traded among manufacturers. Manufacturers with
credit deficits were allowed to carry-forward credit deficits for up to
three model years, similar to the LD GHG and CAFE carry-back credits.
Phase 1 also included several interim provisions, such as incentives
for advanced technologies and provisions to obtain credits for
innovative technologies (called off-cycle in the Phase 2 program) not
accounted for by the HD Phase 1 version of GEM or for certifying early.
B. Overview of the Proposed Phase 2 Tractor Program
The proposed HD Phase 2 program is similar in many respects to the
Phase 1 approach. The agencies are proposing to maintain the Phase 1
attribute-based regulatory structure in terms of dividing the tractor
category into the same nine subcategories based on the tractor's GVWR,
cab configuration, and roof height. This structure is working well in
the implementation of Phase 1. The one area where the agencies are
proposing to change the regulatory structure is related to heavy-haul
tractors. As noted above, the Phase 1 regulations include a set of
provisions that allow vocational tractors to be treated as vocational
vehicles. However, because the agencies propose to include the
powertrain as part of the technology basis for the tractor and
vocational vehicle standards in Phase 2, we are proposing to classify a
certain set of these vocational tractors as heavy-haul tractors and
subject them to a separate tractor standard that reflects their unique
powertrain requirements and limitations in application of technologies
to reduce fuel consumption and CO2 emissions.\117\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\117\ See 76 FR 57138 for Phase 1 discussion. See 40 CFR
1037.801 for proposed Phase 2 heavy-haul tractor regulatory
definition.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
The agencies propose to also retain much of the certification and
compliance structure developed in Phase 1 but to simplify end of the
year reporting. The agencies propose that the Phase 2 tractor
CO2 emissions and fuel consumption standards, as in Phase 1,
be aligned.\118\ The agencies also propose to continue to have separate
engine and vehicle standards to drive technology improvements in both
areas. The reasoning behind the proposal to maintain separate standards
is discussed above in Section II.B.2. As in Phase 1, the agencies
propose to certify tractors using the GEM simulation tool and to
require manufacturers to evaluate the performance of subsystems through
testing (the results of this testing to be used as inputs to the GEM
simulation tool). Other aspects of the proposed HD Phase 2
certification and compliance program also mirror the Phase 1 program,
such as maintaining a single reporting structure to satisfy both
agencies, requiring limited data at the beginning of the model year for
certification, and determining compliance based on end of year reports.
In the Phase 1 program, manufacturers participating in the ABT program
provided 90 day and 270 day reports after the end of the model year.
The agencies required two reports for the initial program to help
manufacturers become familiar with the reporting process. For the Phase
2 program, the agencies propose that manufacturers would only be
required to submit one end of the year report, which would simplify
reporting.
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\118\ Fuel consumption is calculated from CO2 using
the conversion factor of 10,180 grams of CO2 per gallon
for diesel fuel.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Even though many aspects of the proposed HD Phase 2 program are
similar to Phase 1, there are some key differences. While Phase 1
focused on reducing CO2 emissions and fuel consumption in
tractors through the application of existing (``off-the-shelf'')
technologies, the proposed HD Phase 2 standards seek additional
reductions through increased use of existing technologies and the
development and deployment of more advanced technologies. To evaluate
the effectiveness of a more comprehensive set of technologies, the
agencies propose several additional inputs to GEM. The proposed set of
inputs includes the Phase 1 inputs plus parameters to assess the
performance of the engine, transmission, and driveline. Specific inputs
for, among others, predictive cruise control, automatic tire inflation
systems, and 6x2 axles would now be required. Manufacturers would
conduct component testing to obtain the values for these technologies
(should they choose to use them), which testing values would then be
input into the GEM simulation tool. See Section III.D.2 below. To
effectively assess performance of the technologies, the agencies also
propose to change some aspects of the drive cycle used in certification
through the addition of road grade. To reflect the existing trailer
market, the agencies are proposing to refine the aerodynamic test
procedure for high roof cabs by adding some aerodynamic improving
devices to the reference trailer (used for determining the relative
aerodynamic performance of the tractor). The agencies also propose to
change the aerodynamic certification test procedure to capture
aerodynamic improvement of trailers and the impact of wind on tractor
aerodynamic performance. The agencies are also proposing to change some
of the interim provisions developed in Phase 1 to reflect the maturity
of the program and
[[Page 40211]]
reduced need and justification for some of the Phase 1 flexibilities.
Further discussions on all of these matters are covered in the
following sections.
C. Proposed Phase 2 Tractor Standards
EPA is proposing CO2 standards and NHTSA is proposing
fuel consumption standards for new Class 7 and 8 combination tractors.
In addition, EPA is proposing to maintain the HFC standards for the air
conditioning systems that were adopted in Phase 1. EPA is also seeking
comment on new standards to further control emissions of particulate
matter (PM) from auxiliary power units (APU) installed in tractors that
would prevent an unintended consequence of increasing PM emissions from
tractors during long duration idling.
This section describes in detail the proposed standards. In
addition to describing the proposed alternative (``Alternative 3''), in
Section III.D.2.f we also detail another alternative (``Alternative
4''). Alternative 4 provides less lead time than the proposed set of
standards but may provide more net benefits in the form of greater
emission and fuel consumption reductions (with somewhat higher costs)
in the early years of the program. The agencies believe Alternative 4
has the potential to be maximum feasible and appropriate as discussed
later in this section.
The agencies welcome comment on all aspects of the proposed
standards and the alternative standards described in Section III.D.2.f.
Commenters are encouraged to address all aspects of feasibility
analysis, including costs, the likelihood of developing the technology
to achieve sufficient relaibility within the proposed and alternative
lead-times, and the extent to which the market could utilize the
technology. It would be helpful if comments addressed these issues
separately for each type of technology.
(1) Proposed Fuel Consumption and CO2 Standards
The proposed fuel consumption and CO2 standards for the
tractor cab are shown below in Table III-1. These proposed standards
would achieve reductions of up to 24 percent compared to the 2017 model
year baseline level when fully phased in beginning in the 2027 MY.\119\
The proposed standards for Class 7 are described as ``Day Cabs''
because we are not aware of any Class 7 sleeper cabs in the market
today; however, the agencies propose to require any Class 7 tractor,
regardless of cab configuration, meet the standards described as
``Class 7 Day Cab.'' We welcome comment on this proposed approach.
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\119\ Since the HD Phase 1 tractor standards fully phase-in by
the MY 2017, this is the logical baseline year.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
The agencies' analyses, as discussed briefly below and in more
detail later in this preamble and in the draft RIA Chapter 2, indicate
that these proposed standards, if finalized, would be maximum feasible
(within the meaning of 49 U.S.C. Section 32902 (k)) and would be
appropriate under each agency's respective statutory authorities. The
agencies solicit comment on all aspects of these analyses.
Table III-1--Proposed Phase 2 Heavy-Duty Combination Tractor EPA Emissions Standards (g CO2/ton-mile) and NHTSA
Fuel Consumption Standards (gal/1,000 ton-mile)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day cab Sleeper cab
-----------------------------------------------
Class 7 Class 8 Class 8
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2021 Model Year CO2 Grams per Ton-Mile..........................................................................
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Low Roof........................................................ 97 78 70
Mid Roof........................................................ 107 84 78
High Roof....................................................... 109 86 77
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2021 Model Year Gallons of Fuel per 1,000 Ton-Mile..............................................................
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Low Roof........................................................ 9.5285 7.6621 6.8762
Mid Roof........................................................ 10.5108 8.2515 7.6621
High Roof....................................................... 10.7073 8.4479 7.5639
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2024 Model Year CO2 Grams per Ton-Mile..........................................................................
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Low Roof........................................................ 90 72 64
Mid Roof........................................................ 100 78 71
High Roof....................................................... 101 79 70
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2024 Model Year and Later Gallons of Fuel per 1,000 Ton-Mile....................................................
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Low Roof........................................................ 8.8409 7.0727 6.2868
Mid Roof........................................................ 9.8232 7.6621 6.9745
High Roof....................................................... 9.9214 7.7603 6.8762
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2027 Model Year CO2 Grams per Ton-Mile..........................................................................
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Low Roof........................................................ 87 70 62
Mid Roof........................................................ 96 76 69
High Roof....................................................... 96 76 67
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2027 Model Year and Later Gallons of Fuel per 1,000 Ton-Mile....................................................
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Low Roof........................................................ 8.5462 6.8762 6.0904
Mid Roof........................................................ 9.4303 7.4656 6.7780
[[Page 40212]]
High Roof....................................................... 9.4303 7.4656 6.5815
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
It should be noted that the proposed HD Phase 2 CO2 and
fuel consumptions standards are not directly comparable to the Phase 1
standards. This is because the agencies are proposing several test
procedure changes to more accurately reflect real world operation of
tractors. These changes will result in the following differences.
First, the same vehicle evaluated using the proposed HD Phase 2 version
of GEM will obtain higher (i.e. less favorable) CO2 and fuel
consumption values because the Phase 2 drive cycles include road grade.
Road grade, which (of course) exists in the real-world, requires the
engine to operate at higher horsepower levels to maintain speed while
climbing a hill. Even though the engine saves fuel on a downhill
section, the overall impact increases CO2 emissions and fuel
consumption. The second of the key differences between the
CO2 and fuel consumption values in Phase 1 and Phase 2 is
due to proposed changes in the evaluation of aerodynamics. In the real
world, vehicles are exposed to wind which increases the drag of the
vehicle and in turn increases the power required to move the vehicle
down the road. To more appropriately reflect the in-use aerodynamic
performance of tractor-trailers, the agencies are proposing to input
into Phase 2 GEM the wind averaged coefficient of drag instead of the
no-wind (zero yaw) value used in Phase 1. The final key difference
between Phase 1 and the proposed Phase 2 program includes a more
realistic and improved simulation of the transmission in GEM, which
could increase CO2 and fuel consumption relative to Phase 1.
The agencies are proposing Phase 2 CO2 emissions and
fuel consumption standards for the combination tractors that reflect
reductions that can be achieved through improvements in the tractor's
powertrain, aerodynamics, tires, and other vehicle systems. The
agencies have analyzed the feasibility of achieving the proposed
CO2 and fuel consumption standards, and have identified
means of achieving the proposed standards that are technically feasible
in the lead time afforded, economically practicable and cost-effective.
EPA and NHTSA present the estimated costs and benefits of the proposed
standards in Section III.D.2. In developing the proposed standards for
Class 7 and 8 tractors, the agencies have evaluated the following:
the current levels of emissions and fuel consumption
the kinds of technologies that could be utilized by tractor
and engine manufacturers to reduce emissions and fuel consumption from
tractors and associated engines
the necessary lead time
the associated costs for the industry
fuel savings for the consumer
the magnitude of the CO2 and fuel savings that may
be achieved
The technologies on whose performance the proposed tractor
standards are predicated include: Improvements in the engine,
transmission, driveline, aerodynamic design, tire rolling resistance,
other accessories of the tractor, and extended idle reduction
technologies. These technologies, and other accessories of the tractor,
are described in draft RIA Chapter 2.4. The agencies' evaluation shows
that some of these technologies are available today, but have very low
adoption rates on current vehicles, while others will require some lead
time for development. EPA and NHTSA also present the estimated costs
and benefits of the proposed Class 7 and 8 combination tractor
standards in draft RIA Chapter 2.8 and 2.12, explaining as well the
basis for the agencies' proposed stringency level.
As explained below in Section III.D, EPA and NHTSA have determined
that there would be sufficient lead time to introduce various tractor
and engine technologies into the fleet starting in the 2021 model year
and fully phasing in by the 2027 model year. This is consistent with
NHTSA's statutory requirement to provide four full model years of
regulatory lead time for standards. As was adopted in Phase 1, the
agencies are proposing for Phase 2 that manufacturers may generate and
use credits from Class 7 and 8 combination tractors to show compliance
with the standards. This is discussed further in Section III.F.
Based on our analysis, the 2027 model year standards for
combination tractors and engines represent up to a 24 percent reduction
in CO2 emissions and fuel consumption over a 2017 model year
baseline tractor, as detailed in Section III.D.2. In considering the
feasibility of vehicles to comply with the proposed standards over
their useful lives, EPA also considered the potential for
CO2 emissions to increase during the regulatory useful life
of the product. As we discuss in Phase 1 and separately in the context
of deterioration factor (DF) testing, we have concluded that
CO2 emissions are likely to stay the same or actually
decrease in-use compared to new certified configurations. In general,
engine and vehicle friction decreases as products wear, leading to
reduced parasitic losses and consequent lower CO2 emissions.
Similarly, tire rolling resistance falls as tires wear due to the
reduction in tread height. In the case of aerodynamic components, we
project no change in performance through the regulatory life of the
vehicle since there is essentially no change in their physical form as
vehicles age. Similarly, weight reduction elements such as aluminum
wheels are (evidently) not projected to increase in mass through time,
and hence, we can conclude will not deteriorate with regard to
CO2 performance in-use. Given all of these considerations,
the agencies are confident in projecting that the tractor standards
being proposed today would be technically feasible throughout the
regulatory useful life of the program.
(2) Proposed Non-CO2 GHG Standards for Tractors
EPA is also proposing standards to control non-CO2 GHG
emissions from Class 7 and 8 combination tractors.
(a) N2O and CH4 Emissions
The proposed heavy-duty engine standards for both N2O
and CH4 as well as details of the proposed standards are
included in the discussion in Section II.D.3 and II.D.4. No additional
controls for N2O or CH4 emissions beyond those in
the proposed HD Phase 2 engine standards are being considered for the
tractor category.
(b) HFC Emissions
Manufacturers can reduce hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) emissions from air
conditioning (A/C) leakage emissions in two ways. First, they can
[[Page 40213]]
utilize leak-tight A/C system components. Second, manufacturers can
largely eliminate the global warming impact of leakage emissions by
adopting systems that use an alternative, low-Global Warming Potential
(GWP) refrigerant, to replace the commonly used R-134a refrigerant. EPA
proposes to address HFC emissions by maintaining the A/C leakage
standards adopted in HD Phase 1 (see 40 CFR 1037.115). EPA believes the
Phase 1 use of leak-tight components is at an appropriate level of
stringency while maintaining the flexibility to produce the wide
variety of A/C system configurations required in the tractor category.
In addition, there currently are not any low GWP refrigerants approved
for the heavy-duty vehicle sector. Without an alternative refrigerant
approved for this sector, it is challenging to demonstrate feasibility
to reduce the amount of leakage allowed under the HFC leakage standard.
Please see Section I.F(1)(b) for a discussion related to alternative
refrigerants.
(3) PM Emissions From APUs
Auxiliary power units (APUs) can be used in lieu of operating the
main engine during extended idle operations to provide climate control
and power to the driver. APUs can reduce fuel consumption,
NOX, HC, CH4, and CO2 emissions when
compared to main engine idling.\120\ However, a potential unintended
consequence of reducing CO2 emissions from combination
tractors through the use of APUs during extended idle operation is an
increase in PM emissions. Therefore, EPA is seeking comment on the need
and appropriateness to further reduce PM emissions from APUs.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\120\ U.S. EPA. Development of Emission Rates for Heavy-Duty
Vehicles in the Motor Vehicle Emissions Simulator MOVES 2010. EPA-
420-B-12-049. August 2012.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
EPA conducted an analysis evaluating the potential impact on PM
emissions due to an increase in APU adoption rates using MOVES. In this
analysis, EPA assumed that these APUs emit criteria pollutants at the
level of the EPA standard for this type of non-road diesel engines.
Under this assumption, an APU would emit 1.8 grams PM per hour,
assuming an extended idle load demand of 4.5 kW (6 hp).\121\ However, a
2010 model year or newer tractor that uses its main engine to idle
emits approximately 0.35 grams PM per hour.\122\ The results from these
MOVES runs are shown below in Table III-2. These results show that an
increase in use of APUs could lead to an overall increase in PM
emissions if left uncontrolled. Column three labeled ``Proposed Program
PM2.5 Emission Impact without Further PM Control (tons)''
shows the incremental increase in PM2.5 without further
regulation of APU PM2.5 emissions.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\121\ Tier 4, less-than-8 kW nonroad compression-ignition engine
exhaust emissions standards assumed for APUs: https://www.epa.gov/otaq/standards/nonroad/nonroadci.htm.
\122\ U.S. EPA. MOVES2014 Reports. Last accessed on May 1, 2015
at https://www.epa.gov/otaq/models/moves/moves-reports.htm.
Table III-2--Projected Impact of Increased Adoption of APUs in
Phase 2
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Proposed program
Baseline HD vehicle PM2.5\a\ emission
CY PM2.5 emissions impact without
(tons) further PM control
(tons)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
2035.......................... 21,452 1,631
2050.......................... 24,675 2,257
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note:
\a\ Positive numbers mean emissions would increase from baseline to
control case. PM2.5 from tire wear and brake wear are included.
Since January 1, 2008, California ARB has prohibited the idling of
sleeper cab tractors during periods of sleep and rest.\123\ The
regulations apply additional requirements to diesel-fueled APUs on
tractors equipped with 2007 model year or newer engines. Truck owners
in California must either: (1) Fit the APU with an ARB verified Level 3
particulate control device that achieves 85 percent reduction in
particulate matter; or (2) have the APU exhaust plumbed into the
vehicle's exhaust system upstream of the particulate matter
aftertreatment device.\124\ Currently ARB includes four control devices
that have been verified to meet the Level 3 p.m. requirements. These
devices include HUSS Umwelttechnik GmbH's FS-MK Series Diesel
Particulate filters, Impco Ecotrans Technologies' ClearSky Diesel
Particulate Filter, Thermo King's Electric Regenerative Diesel
Particulate Filter, and Proventia's Electronically Heated Diesel
Particulate Filter. In addition, ARB has approved a Cummins integrated
diesel-fueled APU and several fuel-fired heaters produced by Espar and
Webasto.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\123\ California Air Resources Board. Idle Reduction
Technologies for Sleeper Berth Trucks. Last viewed on September 19,
2014 at https://www.arb.ca.gov/msprog/cabcomfort/cabcomfort.htm.
\124\ California Air Resources Board. Sec. 2485(c)(3)(A)(1).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
EPA conducted an evaluation of the impact of potentially requiring
further PM control from APUs nationwide. As shown in Table III-2, EPA
projects that the HD Phase 2 program as proposed (without additional PM
controls) would increase PM2.5 emissions by 1,631 tons in
2035 and 2,257 tons in 2050. The annual impact of a program to further
control PM could lead to a reduction of PM2.5 emissions
nationwide by 3,084 tons in 2035 and by 4,344 tons in 2050, as shown in
Table III-3 the column labeled ``Net Impact on National
PM2.5 Emission with Further PM Control of APUs (tons).''
[[Page 40214]]
Table III-3--Projected Impact of Further Control on PM2.5 Emissions \a\
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Proposed HD phase 2 Proposed HD Phase 2 Net impact on
Baseline national program national Program National national PM2.5
CY heavy-duty vehicle PM2.5 Emissions PM2.5 emissions emission with
PM2.5 emissions without Further PM with further pm further PM control
(tons) Control (tons) control (tons) of APUs (tons)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2035........................ 21,452 23,083 19,999 -3,084
2050........................ 24,675 26,932 22,588 -4,344
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note:
\a\ PM2.5 from tire wear and brake wear are included.
EPA developed long-term cost projections for catalyzed diesel
particulate filters (DPF) as part of the Nonroad Diesel Tier 4
rulemaking. In that rulemaking, EPA estimated the DPF costs would add
$580 to the cost of 150 horsepower engines (69 FR 39126, June 29,
2004). On the other hand, ARB estimated the cost of retrofitting a
diesel powered APU with a PM trap to be $2,000 in 2005.\125\ The costs
of a DPF for an APU that provides less than 25 horsepower would be less
than the projected cost of a 150 HP engine because the filter volume is
in general proportional to the engine-out emissions and exhaust flow
rate. Proventia is charging customers $2,240 for electronically heated
DPF.\126\ EPA welcomes comments on cost estimates associated with DPF
systems for APUs.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\125\ California Air Resources Board. Staff Report: Initial
Statement of Reasons; Notice of Public Hearing to Consider
Requirements to Reduce Idling Emissions From New and In-Use Trucks,
Beginning in 2008. September 1, 2005. Page 38. Last viewed on
October 20, 2014 at https://www.arb.ca.gov/regact/hdvidle/isor.pdf.
\126\ Proventia. Tripac Filter Kits. Last accessed on October
21, 2014 at https://www.proventiafilters.com/purchase.html.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
EPA requests comments on the technical feasibility of diesel
particulate filters ability to reduce PM emissions by 85 percent from
non-road engines used to power APUs. EPA also requests comments on
whether the technology costs outlined above are accurate, and if so, if
projected reductions are appropriate taking into account cost, noise,
safety, and energy factors. See CAA section 213(a)(4).
(4) Proposed Exclusions From the Phase 2 Tractor Standards
As noted above, in Phase 1, the agencies adopted provisions to
allow tractor manufacturers to reclassify certain tractors as
vocational vehicles.\127\ The agencies propose in Phase 2 to continue
to allow manufacturers to exclude certain vocational-types of tractors
from the combination tractor standards and instead be subject to the
vocational vehicle standards. However, the agencies propose to set
unique standards for tractors used in heavy haul applications in Phase
2. Details regarding the proposed heavy-haul standards are included
below in Section II.D.3.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\127\ See 40 CFR 1037.630.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
During the development of Phase 1, the agencies received multiple
comments from several stakeholders supporting an approach for an
alternative treatment of a subset of tractors because they were
designed to operate at lower speeds, in stop and go traffic, and
sometimes operate at higher weights than the typical line-haul tractor.
These types of applications have limited potential for improvements in
aerodynamic performance to reduce CO2 emissions and fuel
consumption. Consistent with the agencies' approach in Phase 1, the
agencies agree that these vocational tractors are operated differently
than line-haul tractors and therefore fit more appropriately into the
vocational vehicle category. However, we need to continue to ensure
that only tractors that are truly vocational tractors are classified as
such.\128\ A vehicle determined by the manufacturer to be a HHD
vocational tractor would fall into one of the HHD vocational vehicle
subcategories and be regulated as a vocational vehicle. Similarly, MHD
tractors which the manufacturer chooses to reclassify as vocational
tractors would be regulated as a MHD vocational vehicle. Specifically,
the agencies are proposing to change the provisions in EPA's 40 CFR
1037.630 and NHTSA's regulation at 49 CFR 523.2 and only allow the
following two types of vocational tractors to be eligible for
reclassification by the manufacturer:
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\128\ As a part of the end of the year compliance process, EPA
and NHTSA verify manufacturer's production reports to avoid any
abuse of the vocational tractor allowance.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
(1) Low-roof tractors intended for intra-city pickup and delivery,
such as those that deliver bottled beverages to retail stores.
(2) Tractors intended for off-road operation (including mixed
service operation), such as those with reinforced frames and increased
ground clearance.\129\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\129\ See existing 40 CFR 1037.630(a)(1)(i) through (iii).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Because the difference between some vocational tractors and line-
haul tractors is potentially somewhat subjective, we are also proposing
to continue to limit the use of this provision to a rolling three year
sales limit of 21,000 vocational tractors per manufacturer consistent
with past production volumes of such vehicles. We propose to carry-over
the existing three year sales limit with the recognition that heavy-
haul tractors would no longer be permitted to be treated as vocational
vehicles (suggesting a lower volumetric cap could be appropriate) but
that the heavy-duty market has improved since the development of the HD
Phase 1 rule (suggesting the need for a higher sales cap). The agencies
welcome comment on whether the proposed sales volume limit is set at an
appropriate level looking into the future.
Also in Phase 1, EPA determined that manufacturers that met the
small business criteria specified in 13 CFR 121.201 for ``Heavy Duty
Truck Manufacturing'' were not subject to the greenhouse gas emissions
standards of 40 CFR 1037.106.\130\ The regulations required that
qualifying manufacturers must notify the Designated Compliance Officer
each model year before introducing the vehicles into commerce. The
manufacturers are also required to label the vehicles to identify them
as excluded vehicles. EPA and NHTSA are seeking comments on eliminating
this provision for tractor manufacturers in the Phase 2 program. The
agencies are aware of two second stage manufacturers building custom
sleeper cab tractors. We could treat these vehicles in one of two ways.
First, the vehicles may be considered as dromedary vehicles and
therefore treated as vocational vehicles.\131\ Or the
[[Page 40215]]
agencies could provide provisions that stated if a manufacturer changed
the cab, but not the frontal area of the vehicle, then it could retain
the aerodynamic bin of the original tractor. We welcome comments on
these considerations.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\130\ See 40 CFR 1037.150(c).
\131\ A dromedary is a box, deck, or plate mounted behind the
tractor cab and forward of the fifth wheel on the frame of the power
unit of a tractor-trailer combination to carry freight.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
EPA is proposing to not exempt glider kits from the Phase 2 GHG
emission standards.\132\ Gliders and glider kits are exempt from
NHTSA's Phase 1 fuel consumption standards. For EPA purposes, the
CO2 provisions of Phase 1 exempted gliders and glider kits
produced by small businesses but did not include such a blanket
exemption for other glider kits.\133\ Thus, some gliders and glider
kits are already subject to the requirement to obtain a vehicle
certificate prior to introduction into commerce as a new vehicle.
However, the agencies believe glider manufacturers may not understand
how these regulations apply to them, resulting in a number of
uncertified vehicles.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\132\ Glider vehicles are new vehicles produced to accept
rebuilt engines (or other used engines) along with used axles and/or
transmissions. The common commercial term ``glider kit'' is used
here primarily to refer to an assemblage of parts into which the
used/rebuilt engine is installed.
\133\ Rebuilt engines used in glider vehicles are subject to EPA
criteria pollutant emission standards applicable for the model year
of the engine. See 40 CFR 86.004-40 for requirements that apply for
engine rebuilding. Under existing regulations, engines that remain
in their certified configuration after rebuilding may continue to be
used.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
EPA is concerned about adverse economic impacts on small businesses
that assemble glider kits and glider vehicles. Therefore, EPA is
proposing an option that would grandfather existing small businesses,
but cap annual production based on their recent sales. EPA requests
comment on whether any special provisions would be needed to
accommodate glider kits. See Section XIV for additional discussion of
the proposed requirements for glider vehicles.
Similarly, NHTSA is considering including glider vehicles under its
Phase 2 program. The agencies request comment on their respective
considerations.
We believe that the agencies potentially having different policies
for glider kits and glider vehicles under the Phase 2 program would not
result in problematic disharmony between the NHTSA and EPA programs,
because of the small number of vehicles that would be involved. EPA
believes that its proposed changes would result in the glider market
returning to the pre-2007 levels, in which fewer than 1,000 glider
vehicles would be produced in most years. Only non-exempt glider
vehicles would be subject to different requirements under the NHTSA and
EPA regulations. However, we believe that this is unlikely to exceed a
few hundred vehicles in any year, which would be few enough not to
result in any meaningful disharmony between the two agencies.
With regard to NHTSA's safety authority over gliders, the agency
notes that it has become increasingly aware of potential noncompliance
with its regulations applicable to gliders. NHTSA has learned of
manufacturers who are creating glider vehicles that are new vehicles
under 49 CFR 571.7(e); however, the manufacturers are not certifying
them and obtaining a new VIN as required. NHTSA plans to pursue
enforcement actions as applicable against noncompliant manufacturers.
In addition to enforcement actions, NHTSA may consider amending 49 CFR
571.7(e) and related regulations as necessary. NHTSA believes
manufacturers may not be using this regulation as originally intended.
(5) In-Use Standards
Section 202(a)(1) of the CAA specifies that EPA is to propose
emissions standards that are applicable for the useful life of the
vehicle. The in-use Phase 2 standards that EPA is proposing would apply
to individual vehicles and engines, just as EPA adopted for Phase 1.
NHTSA is also proposing to use the same useful life mileage and years
as EPA for Phase 2.
EPA is also not proposing any changes to provisions requiring that
the useful life for tractors with respect to CO2 emissions
be equal to the respective useful life periods for criteria pollutants,
as shown below in Table III-4. See 40 CFR 1037.106(e). EPA does not
expect degradation of the technologies evaluated for Phase 2 in terms
of CO2 emissions, therefore we propose no changes to the
regulations describing compliance with GHG pollutants with regards to
deterioration. See 40 CFR 1037.241. We welcome comments that highlight
a need to change this approach.
Table III-4--Tractor Useful Life Periods
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Years Miles
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Class 7 Tractors.................................. 10 185,000
Class 8 Tractors.................................. 10 435,000
------------------------------------------------------------------------
D. Feasibility of the Proposed Tractor Standards
This section describes the agencies' technical feasibility and cost
analysis in greater detail. Further detail on all of these technologies
can be found in the draft RIA Chapter 2.
Class 7 and 8 tractors are used in combination with trailers to
transport freight. The variation in the design of these tractors and
their typical uses drive different technology solutions for each
regulatory subcategory. As noted above, the agencies are proposing to
continue the Phase 1 provisions that treat vocational tractors as
vocational vehicles instead of as combination tractors, as noted in
Section III.C. The focus of this section is on the feasibility of the
proposed standards for combination tractors including the heavy-haul
tractors, but not the vocational tractors.
EPA and NHTSA collected information on the cost and effectiveness
of fuel consumption and CO2 emission reducing technologies
from several sources. The primary sources of information were the
Southwest Research Institute evaluation of heavy-duty vehicle fuel
efficiency and costs for NHTSA,\134\ the Department of Energy's
SuperTruck Program,\135\ 2010 National Academy of Sciences report of
Technologies and Approaches to Reducing the Fuel Consumption of Medium-
and Heavy-Duty Vehicles,\136\ TIAX's assessment of technologies to
support the NAS panel report,\137\ the analysis conducted by the
Northeast States Center for a Clean Air Future, International Council
on Clean Transportation, Southwest Research Institute and TIAX for
reducing fuel consumption of heavy-duty long haul combination tractors
(the NESCCAF/ICCT study),\138\ and the technology cost analysis
conducted by ICF for EPA.\139\
[[Page 40216]]
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\134\ Reinhart, T.E. (June 2015). Commercial Medium- and Heavy-
Duty Truck Fuel Efficiency Technology Study--Report #1. (Report No.
DOT HS 812 146). Washington, DC: National Highway Traffic Safety
Administration.
\135\ U.S. Department of Energy. SuperTruck Initiative.
Information available at https://energy.gov/eere/vehicles/vehicle-technologies-office.
\136\ Committee to Assess Fuel Economy Technologies for Medium-
and Heavy-Duty Vehicles; National Research Council; Transportation
Research Board (2010). Technologies and Approaches to Reducing the
Fuel Consumption of Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicles. (``The 2010 NAS
Report'') Washington, DC, The National Academies Press.
\137\ TIAX, LLC. ``Assessment of Fuel Economy Technologies for
Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicles,'' Final Report to National Academy
of Sciences, November 19, 2009.
\138\ NESCCAF, ICCT, Southwest Research Institute, and TIAX.
Reducing Heavy-Duty Long Haul Combination Truck Fuel Consumption and
CO2 Emissions. October 2009.
\139\ ICF International. ``Investigation of Costs for Strategies
to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions for Heavy-Duty On-Road
Vehicles.'' July 2010. Docket Number EPA-HQ-OAR-2010-0162-0283.
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(1) What technologies did the agencies consider to reduce the
CO2 emissions and fuel consumption of combination tractors?
Manufacturers can reduce CO2 emissions and fuel
consumption of combination tractors through use of many technologies,
including engine, drivetrain, aerodynamic, tire, extended idle, and
weight reduction technologies. The agencies' determination of the
feasibility of the proposed HD Phase 2 standards is based on our
projection of the use of these technologies and an assessment of their
effectiveness. We will also discuss other technologies that could
potentially be used, such as vehicle speed limiters, although we are
not basing the proposed standards on their use for the model years
covered by this proposal, for various reasons discussed below.
In this section we discuss generally the tractor and engine
technologies that the agencies considered to improve performance of
heavy-duty tractors, while Section III.D.2 discusses the baseline
tractor definition and technology packages the agencies used to
determine the proposed standard levels.
Engine technologies: As discussed in Section II.D above, there are
several engine technologies that can reduce fuel consumption of heavy-
duty tractors. These technologies include friction reduction,
combustion system optimization, and Rankine cycle. These engine
technologies would impact the Phase 2 vehicle results because the
agencies propose that the manufacturers enter a fuel map into GEM.
Aerodynamic technologies: There are opportunities to reduce
aerodynamic drag from the tractor, but it is sometimes difficult to
assess the benefit of individual aerodynamic features. Therefore,
reducing aerodynamic drag requires optimizing of the entire system. The
potential areas to reduce drag include all sides of the truck--front,
sides, top, rear and bottom. The grill, bumper, and hood can be
designed to minimize the pressure created by the front of the truck.
Technologies such as aerodynamic mirrors and fuel tank fairings can
reduce the surface area perpendicular to the wind and provide a smooth
surface to minimize disruptions of the air flow. Roof fairings provide
a transition to move the air smoothly over the tractor and trailer.
Side extenders can minimize the air entrapped in the gap between the
tractor and trailer. Lastly, underbelly treatments can manage the flow
of air underneath the tractor. DOE has partnered with the heavy-duty
industry to demonstrate vehicles that achieve a 50 percent improvement
in freight efficiency. This SuperTruck program has led to significant
advancements in the aerodynamics of combination tractor-trailers. The
manufacturers' SuperTruck demonstration vehicles are achieving
approximately 7 percent freight efficiency improvements over a 2010 MY
baseline vehicle due to improvements in tractor aerodynamics.\140\ The
2010 NAS Report on heavy-duty trucks found that aerodynamic
improvements which yield 3 to 4 percent fuel consumption reduction or 6
to 8 percent reduction in Cd values, beyond technologies used in
today's SmartWay trucks are achievable.\141\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\140\ Daimler Truck North America. SuperTruck Program Vehicle
Project Review. June 19, 2014.
\141\ See TIAX, Note 137, Page 4-40.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Lower Rolling Resistance Tires: A tire's rolling resistance results
from the tread compound material, the architecture and materials of the
casing, tread design, the tire manufacturing process, and its operating
conditions (surface, inflation pressure, speed, temperature, etc.).
Differences in rolling resistance of up to 50 percent have been
identified for tires designed to equip the same vehicle. Since 2007,
SmartWay designated tractors have had steer tires with rolling
resistance coefficients of less than 6.6 kg/metric ton for the steer
tire and less than 7.0 kg/metric ton for the drive tire.\142\ Low
rolling resistance (LRR) drive tires are currently offered in both dual
assembly and wide-based single configurations. Wide based single tires
can offer rolling resistance reduction along with improved aerodynamics
and weight reduction. The lowest rolling resistance value submitted for
2014MY GHG and fuel efficiency certification was 4.3 and 5.0 kg/metric
ton for the steer and drive tires respectively.\143\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\142\ Ibid.
\143\ Memo to Docket. Coefficient of Rolling Resistance
Certification Data. See Docket EPA-HQ-OAR-2014-0827.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Weight Reduction: Reductions in vehicle mass lower fuel consumption
and GHG emissions by decreasing the overall vehicle mass that is moved
down the road. Weight reductions also increase vehicle payload
capability which can allow additional tons to be carried by fewer
trucks consuming less fuel and producing lower emissions on a ton-mile
basis. We treated such weight reduction in two ways in Phase 1 to
account for the fact that combination tractor-trailers weigh-out
approximately one-third of the time and cube-out approximately two-
thirds of the time. Therefore in Phase 1 and also as proposed for Phase
2, one-third of the weight reduction would be added payload in the
denominator while two-thirds of the weight reduction is subtracted from
the overall weight of the vehicle in GEM. See 76 FR 57153.
In Phase 1, we reflected mass reductions for specific technology
substitutions (e.g., installing aluminum wheels instead of steel
wheels). These substitutions were included where we could with
confidence verify the mass reduction information provided by the
manufacturer. The agencies propose to expand the list of weight
reduction components which can be input into GEM in order to provide
the manufacturers with additional means to comply via GEM with the
combination tractor standards and to further encourage reductions in
vehicle weight. As in Phase 1, we recognize that there may be
additional potential for weight reduction in new high strength steel
components which combine the reduction due to the material substitution
along with improvements in redesign, as evidenced by the studies done
for light-duty vehicles.\144\ In the development of the high strength
steel component weights, we are only assuming a reduction from material
substitution and no weight reduction from redesign, since we do not
have any data specific to redesign of heavy-duty components nor do we
have a regulatory mechanism to differentiate between material
substitution and improved design. Additional weight reduction would be
evaluated as a potential off-cycle credit.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\144\ American Iron and Steel Institute. ``A Cost Benefit
Analysis Report to the North American Steel Industry on Improved
Material and Powertrain Architectures for 21st Century Trucks.''
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Extended Idle Reduction: Auxiliary power units (APU), fuel operated
heaters, battery supplied air conditioning, and thermal storage systems
are among the technologies available today to reduce main engine
extended idling from sleeper cabs. Each of these technologies reduces
fuel consumption during idling from a truck without this equipment (the
baseline) from approximately 0.8 gallons per hour (main engine idling
fuel consumption rate) to approximately 0.2 gallons per hour for an
APU.\145\ EPA and NHTSA agree with the TIAX assessment that a 5 percent
reduction in overall fuel consumption reduction is achievable.\146\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\145\ See the draft RIA Chapter 2.4.8 for details.
\146\ See the 2010 NAS Report, Note 136, above, at 128.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
[[Page 40217]]
Idle Reduction: Day cab tractors often idle while cargo is loaded
or unloaded, as well as during the frequent stops that are inherent
with driving in urban traffic conditions near cargo destinations. To
recognize idle reduction technologies that reduce workday idling, the
agencies have developed a new idle-only duty cycle that is proposed to
be used in GEM. As discussed above in Section II.D, this new proposed
certification test cycle would measure the amount of fuel saved and
CO2 emissions reduced by two primary types of technologies:
Neutral idle and stop-start. The proposed rules apply this test cycle
only to vocational vehicles because these types of vehicles spend more
time at idle than tractors. However, the agencies request comment on
whether we should extend this vocational vehicle idle reduction
approach to day cab tractors. Neutral idle would only be available for
tractors using torque-converter automatic transmissions, and stop-start
would be available for any tractor. Unlike the fixed numerical value in
GEM for automatic engine shutdown systems to reduce overnight idling of
combination tractors, this new idle reduction approach would result in
different numerical values depending on user inputs. The required
inputs and other details about this cycle, as it would apply to
vocational vehicles, are described in the draft RIA Chapter 3. If we
extended this approach to day cab tractors, we could set a fixed GEM
composite cycle weighting factor at a value representative of the time
spent at idle for a typical day cab tractor, possibly five percent.
Under this approach, tractor manufacturers would be able to select GEM
inputs that identify the presence of workday idle reduction
technologies, and GEM would calculate the associated benefit due to
these technologies, using this new idle-only cycle as described in the
draft RIA Chapter 3.
The agencies have also received a letter from the California Air
Resources Board requesting consideration of credits for reducing solar
loads. Solar reflective paints and solar control glazing technologies
are briefly discussed in draft RIA Chapter 2.4.9.3. The agencies
request comment on the Air Resources Board's letter and
recommendations.\147\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\147\ California Air Resources Board. Letter from Michael Carter
to Matthew Spears dated December 3, 2014. Solar Control: Heavy-Duty
Vehicles White Paper. Docket EPA-HA-OAR-2014-0827.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Vehicle Speed Limiters: Fuel consumption and GHG emissions increase
proportional to the square of vehicle speed. Therefore, lowering
vehicle speeds can significantly reduce fuel consumption and GHG
emissions. A vehicle speed limiter (VSL), which limits the vehicle's
maximum speed, is another technology option for compliance that is
already utilized today by some fleets (though the typical maximum speed
setting is often higher than 65 mph).
Downsized Engines and Downspeeding: As tractor manufacturers
continue to reduce the losses due to vehicle loads, such as aerodynamic
drag and rolling resistance, the amount of power required to move the
vehicle decreases. In addition, engine manufacturers continue to
improve the power density of heavy-duty engines through means such as
reducing the engine friction due to smaller surface area. These two
changes lead to the ability for truck purchasers to select lower
displacement engines while maintaining the previous level of
performance. Engine downsizing could be more effective if it is
combined with the downspeeding assuming increased BMEP does not affect
durability. The increased efficiency of the vehicle moves the operating
points down to a lower load zone on a fuel map, which often moves the
engine away from its sweet spot to a less efficient zone. In order to
compensate for this loss, downspeeding allows the engine to run at a
lower engine speed and move back to higher load zones, thus can
slightly improve fuel efficiency. Reducing the engine size allows the
vehicle operating points to move back to the sweet spot, thus further
improving fuel efficiency. Engine downsizing can be accounted for as a
vehicle technology through the use of the engine's fuel map in GEM.
Transmission: As discussed in the 2010 NAS report, automatic (AT)
and automated manual transmissions (AMT) may offer the ability to
improve vehicle fuel consumption by optimizing gear selection compared
to an average driver.\148\ However, as also noted in the report and in
the supporting TIAX report, the improvement is very dependent on the
driver of the truck, such that reductions ranged from 0 to 8
percent.\149\ Well-trained drivers would be expected to perform as well
or even better than an automatic transmission since the driver can see
the road ahead and anticipate a changing stoplight or other road
condition that neither an automatic nor automated manual transmission
can anticipate. However, poorly-trained drivers that shift too
frequently or not frequently enough to maintain optimum engine
operating conditions could be expected to realize improved in-use fuel
consumption by switching from a manual transmission to an automatic or
automated manual transmission. As transmissions continue to evolve, we
are now seeing in the European heavy-duty vehicle market the addition
of dual clutch transmissions (DCT). DCTs operate similar to AMTs, but
with two clutches so that the transmission can maintain engine speed
during a shift which improves fuel efficiency. We believe there may be
real benefits in reduced fuel consumption and GHG emissions through the
adoption of dual clutch, automatic or automated manual transmission
technology.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\148\ Manual transmissions require the driver to shift the gears
and manually engage and disengage the clutch. Automatic
transmissions shift gears through computer controls and typically
include a torque converter. An AMT operates similar to a manual
transmission, except that an automated clutch actuator disengages
and engages the drivetrain instead of a human driver. An AMT does
not include a clutch pedal controllable by the driver or a torque
converter.
\149\ See TIAX, Note 137, above at 4-70.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Low Friction Transmission, Axle, and Wheel Bearing Lubricants: The
2010 NAS report assessed low friction lubricants for the drivetrain as
providing a 1 percent improvement in fuel consumption based on fleet
testing.\150\ A field trial of European medium-duty trucks found an
average fuel consumption improvement of 1.8 percent using SAE 5W-30
engine oil, SAE 75W90 axle oil and SAE 75W80 transmission oil when
compared to SAE 15W40 engine oil and SAE 90W axle oil, and SAE 80W
transmission oil.\151\ The light-duty 2012-16 MY vehicle rule and the
pickup truck portion of this program estimate that low friction
lubricants can have an effectiveness value between 0 and 1 percent
compared to traditional lubricants.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\150\ See the 2010 NAS Report, Note 136, page 67.
\151\ Green, D.A., et al. ``The Effect of Engine, Axle, and
Transmission Lubricant, and Operating Conditions on Heavy Duty
Diesel Fuel Economy. Part 1: Measurements.'' SAE 2011-01-2129. SAE
International Journal of Fuels and Lubricants. January 2012.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Drivetrain: Most tractors today have three axles--a steer axle and
two rear drive axles, and are commonly referred to as 6x4 tractors.
Manufacturers offer 6x2 tractors that include one rear drive axle and
one rear non-driving axle. The 6x2 tractors offer three distinct
benefits. First, the non-driving rear axle does not have internal
friction and therefore reduces the overall parasitic losses in the
drivetrain. In addition, the 6x2 configuration typically weighs
approximately 300 to 400 lbs less than
[[Page 40218]]
a 6x4 configuration.\152\ Finally, the 6x2 typically costs less or is
cost neutral when compared to a 6x4 tractor. Sources cite the
effectiveness of 6x2 axles at between 1 and 3 percent.\153\ Similarly,
with the increased use of double and triple trailers, which reduce the
weight on the tractor axles when compared to a single trailer,
manufacturers offer 4x2 axle configurations. The 4x2 axle configuration
would have as good as or better fuel efficiency performance than a 6x2.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\152\ North American Council for Freight Efficiency.
''Confidence Findings on the Potential of 6x2 Axles.'' 2014. Page
16.
\153\ Reinhart, T.E. (June 2015). Commercial Medium- and Heavy-
Duty Truck Fuel Efficiency Technology Study--Report #1. (Report No.
DOT HS 812 146). Washington, DC: National Highway Traffic Safety
Administration.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Accessory Improvements: Parasitic losses from the engine come from
many systems, including the water pump, oil pump, and power steering
pump. Reductions in parasitic losses are one of the areas being
developed under the DOE SuperTruck program. As presented in the DOE
Merit reviews, Navistar stated that they demonstrated a 0.45 percent
reduction in fuel consumption through water pump improvements and 0.3
percent through oil pump improvements compared to a current engine. In
addition, Navistar showed a 0.9 percent benefit for a variable speed
water pump and variable displacement oil pump. Detroit Diesel reports a
0.5 percent coming from improved water pump efficiency.\154\ It should
be noted that water pump improvements include both pump efficiency
improvement and variable speed or on/off controls. Lube pump
improvements are primarily achieved using variable displacement pumps
and may also include efficiency improvement. All of these results shown
in this paragraph are demonstrated through the DOE SuperTruck program
at single operating point on the engine map, and therefore the overall
expected reduction of these technologies is less than the single point
result.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\154\ See the draft RIA Chapter 2.4 for details.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Intelligent Controls: Skilled drivers know how to control a vehicle
to obtain maximum fuel efficiency by, among other things, considering
road terrain. For example, the driver may allow the vehicle to slow
down below the target speed on an uphill and allow it to go over the
target speed when going downhill, to essentially smooth out the engine
demand. Electronic controls can be developed to essentially mimic this
activity. The agencies propose to provide a 2 percent reduction in fuel
consumption and CO2 emissions for vehicles configured with
intelligent controls, such as predictive cruise control.
Automatic Tire Inflation Systems: Proper tire inflation is critical
to maintaining proper stress distribution in the tire, which reduces
heat loss and rolling resistance. Tires with reduced inflation pressure
exhibit a larger footprint on the road, more sidewall flexing and tread
shearing, and therefore, have greater rolling resistance than a tire
operating at its optimal inflation pressure. Bridgestone tested the
effect of inflation pressure and found a 2 percent variation in fuel
consumption over a 40 psi range.\155\ Generally, a 10 psi reduction in
overall tire inflation results in about a 1 percent reduction in fuel
economy.\156\ To achieve the intended fuel efficiency benefits of low
rolling resistance tires, it is critical that tires are maintained at
the proper inflation pressure.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\155\ Bridgestone Tires. Real Questions, Real Answers. https://www.bridgestonetrucktires.com/us_eng/real/magazines/ra_special-edit_4/ra_special4_fuel-tires.asp.
\156\ ``Factors Affecting Truck Fuel Economy,'' Goodyear, Radial
Truck and Retread Service Manual. Accessed February 16, 2010 at
https://www.goodyear.com/truck/pdf/radialretserv/Retread_S9_V.pdf.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Proper tire inflation pressure can be maintained with a rigorous
tire inspection and maintenance program or with the use of tire
pressure and inflation systems. According to a study conducted by FMCSA
in 2003, about 1 in 5 tractors/trucks is operating with 1 or more tires
underinflated by at least 20 psi.\157\ A 2011 FMCSA study estimated
underinflation accounts for one service call per year and increases
tire procurement costs 10 to 13 percent. The study found that total
operating costs can increase by $600 to $800 per year due to
underinflation.\158\ A recent study by The North American Council on
Freight Efficiency, found that adoption of tire pressure monitoring
systems is increasing. It also found that reliability and durability of
commercially available tire pressure systems are good and early issues
with the systems have been addressed.\159\ These automatic tire
inflation systems monitor tire pressure and also automatically keep
tires inflated to a specific level. The agencies propose to provide a 1
percent CO2 and fuel consumption reduction value for
tractors with automatic tire inflation systems installed.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\157\ American Trucking Association. Tire Pressure Monitoring
and Inflation Maintenance. June 2010. Page 3. Last accessed on
December 15, 2014 at https://www.trucking.org/ATA%20Docs/About/Organization/TMC/Documents/Position%20Papers/Study%20Group%20Information%20Reports/Tire%20Pressure%20Monitoring%20and%20Inflation%20Maintenance%E2%80%94TMC%20I.R.%202010-2.pdf.
\158\ TMC Future Truck Committee Presentation ``FMCSA Tire
Pressure Monitoring Field Operational Test Results,'' February 8,
2011.
\159\ North American Council for Freight Efficiency, ``Tire
Pressure Systems,'' 2013.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tire pressure monitoring systems notify the operator of tire
pressure, but require the operator to manually inflate the tires to the
optimum pressure. Because of the dependence on the operator's action,
the agencies are not proposing to provide a reduction value for tire
pressure monitoring systems. We request comment on this approach and
seek data from those that support a reduction value be assigned to tire
pressure monitoring systems.
Hybrid: Hybrid powertrain development in Class 7 and 8 tractors has
been limited to a few manufacturer demonstration vehicles to date. One
of the key benefit opportunities for fuel consumption reduction with
hybrids is less fuel consumption when a vehicle is idling, but the
standard is already premised on use of extended idle reduction so use
of hybrid technology would duplicate many of the same emission
reductions attributable to extended idle reduction. NAS estimated that
hybrid systems would cost approximately $25,000 per tractor in the 2015
through the 2020 time frame and provide a potential fuel consumption
reduction of 10 percent, of which 6 percent is idle reduction which can
be achieved (less expensively) through the use of other idle reduction
technologies.\160\ The limited reduction potential outside of idle
reduction for Class 8 sleeper cab tractors is due to the mostly highway
operation and limited start-stop operation. Due to the high cost and
limited benefit during the model years at issue in this action (as well
as issues regarding sufficiency of lead time (see Section III.D.2
below), the agencies are not including hybrids in assessing standard
stringency (or as an input to GEM).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\160\ See the 2010 NAS Report, Note 136, page 128.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Management: The 2010 NAS report noted many operational
opportunities to reduce fuel consumption, such as driver training and
route optimization. The agencies have included discussion of several of
these strategies in draft RIA Chapter 2, but are not using these
approaches or technologies in the standard setting process. The
agencies are looking to other resources, such as EPA's SmartWay
Transport Partnership and regulations that could potentially be
promulgated by the Federal Highway Administration and the Federal Motor
Carrier Safety Administration, to continue to encourage the development
and utilization of these approaches.
[[Page 40219]]
(2) Projected Technology Effectiveness and Cost
EPA and NHTSA project that CO2 emissions and fuel
consumption reductions can be feasibly and cost-effectively met through
technological improvements in several areas. The agencies evaluated
each technology and estimated the most appropriate adoption rate of
technology into each tractor subcategory. The next sections describe
the baseline vehicle configuration, the effectiveness of the individual
technologies, the costs of the technologies, the projected adoption
rates of the technologies into the regulatory subcategories, and
finally the derivation of the proposed standards.
The agencies propose Phase 2 standards that project by 2027, all
high-roof tractors would have aerodynamic performance equal to or
better today's SmartWay performance--which represents the best of
today's technology. This would equate to having 40 percent of new high
roof sleeper cabs in 2027 complying with the current best practices and
60 percent of the new high-roof sleeper cab tractors sold in 2027
having better aerodynamic performance than the best tractors available
today. For tire rolling resistance, we premised the proposed standards
on the assumption that nearly all tires in 2027 would have rolling
resistance equal to or superior to tires meeting today's SmartWay
designation. As discussed in Section II.D, the agencies assume the
proposed 2027 MY engines would achieve an additional 4 percent
improvement over Phase 1 engines and we project would include 15
percent of waste heat recovery (WHR) and many other advanced engine
technologies. In addition, we are proposing standards that project
improvements to nearly all of today's transmissions, incorporation of
extended idle reduction technologies on 90 percent of sleeper cabs, and
significant adoption of other types of technologies such as predictive
cruise control and automatic tire inflation systems.
In addition to the high cost and limited utility of hybrids for
many tractor drive cycles noted above, the agencies believe that hybrid
powertrains systems for tractors may not be sufficiently developed and
the necessary manufacturing capacity put in place to base a standard on
any significant volume of hybrid tractors. Unlike hybrids for
vocational vehicles and light-duty vehicles, the agencies are not aware
of any full hybrid systems currently developed for long haul tractor
applications. To date, hybrid systems for tractors have been primarily
focused on idle shutdown technologies and not on the broader energy
storage and recovery systems necessary to achieve reductions over
typical vehicle drive cycles. The proposed standards reflect the
potential for idle shutdown technologies through GEM. Further as
highlighted by the 2010 NAS report, the agencies do believe that full
hybrid powertrains may have the potential in the longer term to provide
significant improvements in tractor fuel efficiency and to greenhouse
gas emission reductions. However, due to the high cost, limited benefit
during highway driving, and lacking any existing systems or
manufacturing base, we cannot conclude with certainty, absent
additional information, that such technology would be available for
tractors in the 2021-2027 timeframe. However the agencies welcome
comment from industry and others on their projected timeline for
deployment of hybrid powertrains for tractor applications.
(a) Tractor Baselines for Costs and Effectiveness
The fuel efficiency and CO2 emissions of combination
tractors vary depending on the configuration of the tractor. Many
aspects of the tractor impact its performance, including the engine,
transmission, drive axle, aerodynamics, and rolling resistance. For
each subcategory, the agencies selected a theoretical tractor to
represent the average 2017 model year tractor that meets the Phase 1
standards (see 76 FR 57212, September 15, 2011). These tractors are
used as baselines from which to evaluate costs and effectiveness of
additional technologies and standards. The specific attributes of each
tractor subcategory are listed below in Table III-5. Using these
values, the agencies assessed the CO2 emissions and fuel
consumption performance of the proposed baseline tractors using the
proposed version of Phase 2 GEM. The results of these simulations are
shown below in Table III-6.
As noted earlier, the Phase 1 2017 model year tractor standards and
the baseline 2017 model year tractor results are not directly
comparable. The same set of aerodynamic and tire rolling resistance
technologies were used in both setting the Phase 1 standards and
determining the baseline of the Phase 2 tractors. However, there are
several aspects that differ. First, a new version of GEM was developed
and validated to provide additional capabilities, including more
refined modeling of transmissions and engines. Second, the
determination of the proposed HD Phase 2 CdA value takes into account a
revised test procedure, a new standard reference trailer, and wind
averaged drag as discussed below in Section III.E. In addition, the
proposed HD Phase 2 version of GEM includes road grade in the 55 mph
and 65 mph highway cycles, as discussed below in Section III.E.
Finally, the agencies assessed the current level of automatic engine
shutdown and idle reduction technologies used by the tractor
manufacturers to comply with the 2014 model year CO2 and
fuel consumption standards. To date, the manufacturers are meeting the
2014 model year standards without the use of this technology.
Therefore, in this proposal the agencies reverted back to the baseline
APU adoption rate of 30 percent, the value used in the Phase 1
baseline.
[[Page 40220]]
Table III-5--GEM Inputs for the Baseline Class 7 and 8 Tractor
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Class 7 Class 8
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day cab Day cab Sleeper cab
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Low roof Mid roof High roof Low roof Mid roof High roof Low roof Mid roof High roof
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Engine
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2017 MY 11L 2017 MY 11L 2017 MY 11L 2017 MY 15L 2017 MY 15L 2017 MY 15L 2017 MY 2017 MY 2017 MY
Engine 350 Engine 350 Engine 350 Engine 455 Engine 455 Engine 455 15L Engine 15L Engine 15L Engine
HP HP HP HP HP HP 455 HP 455 HP 455 HP
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Aerodynamics (CdA in m\2\)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
5.00 6.40 6.42 5.00 6.40 6.42 4.95 6.35 6.22
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Steer Tires (CRR in kg/metric ton)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
6.99 6.99 6.87 6.99 6.99 6.87 6.87 6.87 6.54
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Drive Tires (CRR in kg/metric ton)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
7.38 7.38 7.26 7.38 7.38 7.26 7.26 7.26 6.92
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Extended Idle Reduction Adoption Rate
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 30% 30% 30%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Transmission = 10 Speed Manual Transmission
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gear Ratios = 12.8, 9.25, 6.76, 4.90, 3.58, 2.61, 1.89, 1.38, 1.00, 0.73
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Drive Axle Ratio = 3.70
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table III-6--Class 7 and 8 Tractor Baseline CO2 Emissions and Fuel Consumption
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Class 7 Class 8
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day cab Day cab Sleeper cab
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Low roof Mid roof High roof Low roof Mid roof High roof Low roof Mid roof High roof
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CO2 (grams CO2/ton-mile)............................. 107 118 121 86 93 95 79 87 88
Fuel Consumption (gal/1,000 ton-mile)................ 10.5 11.6 11.9 8.4 9.1 9.3 7.8 8.5 8.6
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The fuel consumption and CO2 emissions in the baseline
described above remains the same over time with no assumed improvements
after 2017, absent a Phase 2 regulation. An alternative baseline was
also evaluated by the agencies in which there is a continuing uptake of
technologies in the tractor market that reduce fuel consumption and
CO2 emissions absent a Phase 2 regulation. This alternative
baseline, referred to as the more dynamic baseline, was developed to
estimate the effect of market pressures and non-regulatory government
initiatives to improve tractor fuel consumption. The more dynamic
baseline assumes that the significant level of research funded and
conducted by the Federal government, industry, academia and other
organizations will, in the future, result the adoption of some
technologies beyond the levels required to comply with Phase 1
standards. One example of such research is the Department of Energy
Super Truck program \161\ which has a goal of demonstrating cost-
effective measures to improve the efficiency of Class 8 long-haul
freight trucks by 50 percent by 2015. The more dynamic baseline also
assumes that manufacturers will not cease offering fuel efficiency
improving technologies that currently have significant market
penetration, such as automated manual transmissions. The baselines (one
for each of the nine tractor types) are characterized by fuel
consumption and CO2 emissions that gradually decrease
between 2019 and 2028. In 2028, the fuel consumption for the
alternative tractor baselines is approximately 4.0 percent lower than
those shown in Table III-6. This results from the assumed introduction
of aerodynamic technologies such as down exhaust, underbody airflow
treatment in addition to tires with lower rolling resistance. The
assumed introduction of these technologies reduces the CdA of the
baseline tractors and CRR of the tractor tires. To take one example,
the CdA for baseline high roof sleeper cabs in Table III-5 is 6.22
(m\2\) in 2018. In 2028, the CdA of a high roof sleeper cab would be
assumed to still be 6.22 m\2\ in the baseline case outlined above.
Alternatively, in the dynamic baseline, the CdA for high roof sleeper
cabs is 5.61 (m\2\) in 2028 due to assumed market penetration of
technologies absent the Phase 2 regulation. The dynamic baseline
analysis is discussed in more detail in draft RIA Chapter 11.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\161\ U.S. Department of Energy. ``SuperTruck Making Leaps in
Fuel Efficiency.'' 2014. Last accessed on May 10, 2015 at https://energy.gov/eere/articles/supertruck-making-leaps-fuel-efficiency.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
[[Page 40221]]
(b) Tractor Technology Packages
The agencies' assessment of the proposed technology effectiveness
was developed through the use of the GEM in coordination with modeling
conducted by Southwest Research Institute. The agencies developed the
proposed standards through a three-step process, similar to the
approach used in Phase 1. First, the agencies developed technology
performance characteristics for each technology, as described below.
Each technology is associated with an input parameter which in turn
would be used as an input to the Phase 2 GEM simulation tool and its
effectiveness thereby modeled. The performance levels for the range of
Class 7 and 8 tractor aerodynamic packages and vehicle technologies are
described below in Table III-7. Second, the agencies combined the
technology performance levels with a projected technology adoption rate
to determine the GEM inputs used to set the stringency of the proposed
standards. Third, the agencies input these parameters into Phase 2 GEM
and used the output to determine the proposed CO2 emissions
and fuel consumption levels. All percentage improvements noted below
are over the 2017 baseline tractor.
(i) Engine Improvements
There are several technologies that could be used to improve the
efficiency of diesel engines used in tractors. Details of the engine
technologies, adoption rates, and overall fuel consumption and
CO2 emission reductions are included in Section II.D. The
proposed heavy-duty tractor engine standards would lead to a 1.5
percent reduction in 2021MY, a 3.5 percent reduction in 2024MY, and a 4
percent reduction in 2027MY. These reductions would show up in the fuel
map used in GEM.
(ii) Aerodynamics
The aerodynamic packages are categorized as Bin I, Bin II, Bin III,
Bin IV, Bin V, Bin VI, or Bin VII based on the wind averaged drag
aerodynamic performance determined through testing conducted by the
manufacturer. A more complete description of these aerodynamic packages
is included in Chapter 2 of the draft RIA. In general, the proposed CdA
values for each package and tractor subcategory were developed through
EPA's coastdown testing of tractor-trailer combinations, the 2010 NAS
report, and SAE papers.
(iii) Tire Rolling Resistance
The proposed rolling resistance coefficient target for Phase 2 was
developed from SmartWay's tire testing to develop the SmartWay
certification, testing a selection of tractor tires as part of the
Phase 1 and Phase 2 programs, and from 2014 MY certification data. Even
though the coefficient of tire rolling resistance comes in a range of
values, to analyze this range, the tire performance was evaluated at
four levels for both steer and drive tires, as determined by the
agencies. The four levels are the baseline (average) from 2010, Level I
and Level 2 from Phase 1, and Level 3 that achieves an additional 25
percent improvement over Level 2. The Level 1 rolling resistance
performance represents the threshold used to develop SmartWay
designated tires for long haul tractors. The Level 2 threshold
represents an incremental step for improvements beyond today's SmartWay
level and represents the best in class rolling resistance of the tires
we tested. The Level 3 values represent the long-term rolling
resistance value that the agencies predicts could be achieved in the
2025 timeframe. Given the multiple year phase-in of the standards, the
agencies expect that tire manufacturers will continue to respond to
demand for more efficient tires and will offer increasing numbers of
tire models with rolling resistance values significantly better than
today's typical low rolling resistance tires. The tire rolling
resistance level assumed to meet the 2017 MY Phase 1 standard high roof
sleeper cab is considered to be a weighted average of 10 percent
baseline rolling resistance, 70 percent Level 1, and 20 percent Level
2. The tire rolling resistance to meet the 2017MY Phase 1 standards for
the high roof day cab, low roof sleeper cab, and mid roof sleeper cab
includes 30 percent baseline, 60 percent Level 1 and 10 percent Level
2. Finally, the low roof day cab 2017MY standard can be met with a
weighted average rolling resistance consisting of 40 percent baseline,
50 percent Level 1, and 10 percent Level 2.
(iv) Idle Reduction
The benefits for the extended idle reductions were developed from
literature, SmartWay work, and the 2010 NAS report. Additional details
regarding the comments and calculations are included in draft RIA
Section 2.4.
(v) Transmission
The benefits for automated manual, automatic, and dual clutch
transmissions were developed from literature and from simulation
modeling conducted by Southwest Research Institute. The benefit of
these transmissions is proposed to be set to a two percent improvement
over a manual transmission due to the automation of the gear shifting.
(vi) Drivetrain
The reduction in friction due to low viscosity axle lubricants is
set to 0.5 percent. 6x4 and 4x2 axle configurations lead to a 2.5
percent improvement in vehicle efficiency. Downspeeding would be as
demonstrated through the Phase 2 GEM inputs of transmission gear ratio,
drive axle ratio, and tire diameter. Downspeeding is projected to
improve the fuel consumption by 1.8 percent.
(vii) Accessories and Other Technologies
Compared to 2017MY air conditioners, air conditioners with improved
efficiency compressors will reduce CO2 emissions by 0.5
percent. Improvements in accessories, such as power steering, can lead
to an efficiency improvement of 1 percent over the 2017MY baseline.
Based on literature information, intelligent controls such as
predictive cruise control will reduce CO2 emissions by 2
percent while automatic tire inflation systems improve fuel consumption
by 1 percent by keeping tire rolling resistance to its optimum based on
inflation pressure.
(viii) Weight Reduction
The weight reductions were developed from tire manufacturer
information, the Aluminum Association, the Department of Energy, SABIC
and TIAX, as discussed above in Section II.B.3.e.
(ix) Vehicle Speed Limiter
The agencies did not consider the availability of vehicle speed
limiter technology in setting the Phase 1 stringency levels, and again
did not consider the availability of the technology in developing
regulatory alternatives for Phase 2. However, as described in more
detail above, speed limiters could be an effective means for achieving
compliance, if employed on a voluntary basis.
(x) Summary of Technology Performance
Table III-7 describes the performance levels for the range of Class
7 and 8 tractor vehicle technologies.
[[Page 40222]]
Table III-7--Proposed Phase 2 Technology Inputs
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Class 7 Class 8
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day cab Day cab Sleeper cab
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Low roof Mid roof High roof Low roof Mid roof High roof Low roof Mid roof High roof
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Engine
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2021MY 2021MY 2021MY 2021MY 2021MY 2021MY 2021MY 2021MY 2021MY
11L 11L 11L 15L 15L 15L 15L 15L 15L
Engine Engine Engine Engine Engine Engine Engine Engine Engine
350 HP 350 HP 350 HP 455 HP 455 HP 455 HP 455 HP 455 HP 455 HP
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Aerodynamics (CdA in m\2\)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Bin I................................................ 5.3 6.7 7.6 5.3 6.7 7.6 5.3 6.7 7.4
Bin II............................................... 4.8 6.2 7.1 4.8 6.2 7.1 4.8 6.2 6.9
Bin III.............................................. 4.3 5.7 6.5 4.3 5.7 6.5 4.3 5.7 6.3
Bin IV............................................... 4.0 5.4 5.8 4.0 5.4 5.8 4.0 5.4 5.6
Bin V................................................ N/A N/A 5.3 N/A N/A 5.3 N/A N/A 5.1
Bin VI............................................... N/A N/A 4.9 N/A N/A 4.9 N/A N/A 4.7
Bin VII.............................................. N/A N/A 4.5 N/A N/A 4.5 N/A N/A 4.3
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Steer Tires (CRR in kg/metric ton)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Base................................................. 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.8
Level 1.............................................. 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6
Level 2.............................................. 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7
Level 3.............................................. 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Drive Tires (CRR in kg/metric ton)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Base................................................. 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2
Level 1.............................................. 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0
Level 2.............................................. 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0
Level 3.............................................. 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Idle Reduction (% reduction)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
APU.................................................. N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 5% 5% 5%
Other................................................ N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 7% 7% 7%
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Transmission Type (% reduction)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Manual............................................... 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
AMT.................................................. 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
Auto................................................. 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
Dual Clutch.......................................... 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Driveline (% reduction)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Axle Lubricant....................................... 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%
6x2 or 4x2 Axle...................................... 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5
Downspeed............................................ 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Accessory Improvements (% reduction)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A/C.................................................. 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%
Electric Access...................................... 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Other Technologies (% reduction)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Predictive Cruise Control............................ 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%
Automated Tire Inflation System...................... 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(c) Tractor Technology Adoption Rates
As explained above, tractor manufacturers often introduce major
product changes together, as a package. In this manner the
manufacturers can optimize their available resources, including
engineering, development, manufacturing and marketing activities to
create a product with multiple new features. In addition, manufacturers
recognize that a truck design will need to remain competitive over the
intended life of the design and meet future regulatory requirements. In
some limited cases, manufacturers may implement an individual
technology outside of a vehicle's redesign cycle.
With respect to the levels of technology adoption used to develop
the proposed HD Phase 2 standards, NHTSA and EPA established technology
[[Page 40223]]
adoption constraints. The first type of constraint was established
based on the application of fuel consumption and CO2
emission reduction technologies into the different types of tractors.
For example, extended idle reduction technologies are limited to Class
8 sleeper cabs using the reasonable assumption that day cabs are not
used for overnight hoteling. A second type of constraint was applied to
most other technologies and limited their adoption based on factors
reflecting the real world operating conditions that some combination
tractors encounter. This second type of constraint was applied to the
aerodynamic, tire, powertrain, and vehicle speed limiter technologies.
Table III-8 and Table III-10, specify the adoption rates that EPA
and NHTSA used to develop the proposed standards. The agencies welcome
comments on these adoption rates.
NHTSA and EPA believe that within each of these individual vehicle
categories there are particular applications where the use of the
identified technologies would be either ineffective or not technically
feasible. For example, the agencies are not predicating the proposed
standards on the use of full aerodynamic vehicle treatments on 100
percent of tractors because we know that in many applications (for
example gravel truck engaged in local aggregate delivery) the added
weight of the aerodynamic technologies will increase fuel consumption
and hence CO2 emissions to a greater degree than the
reduction that would be accomplished from the more aerodynamic nature
of the tractor.
(i) Aerodynamics Adoption Rate
The impact of aerodynamics on a tractor-trailer's efficiency
increases with vehicle speed. Therefore, the usage pattern of the
vehicle will determine the benefit of various aerodynamic technologies.
Sleeper cabs are often used in line haul applications and drive the
majority of their miles on the highway travelling at speeds greater
than 55 mph. The industry has focused aerodynamic technology
development, including SmartWay tractors, on these types of trucks.
Therefore the agencies are proposing the most aggressive aerodynamic
technology application to this regulatory subcategory. All of the major
manufacturers today offer at least one SmartWay sleeper cab tractor
model, which is represented as Bin III aerodynamic performance. The
proposed aerodynamic adoption rate for Class 8 high roof sleeper cabs
in 2027 (i.e., the degree of technology adoption on which the
stringency of the proposed standard is premised) consists of 20 percent
of Bin IV, 35 percent Bin V, 20 percent Bin VI, and 5 percent Bin VII
reflecting our assessment of the fraction of tractors in this segment
that could successfully apply these aerodynamic packages with this
amount of lead time. We believe that there is sufficient lead time to
develop aerodynamic tractors that can move the entire high roof sleeper
cab aerodynamic performance to be as good as or better than today's
SmartWay designated tractors. The changes required for Bin IV and
better performance reflect the kinds of improvements projected in the
Department of Energy's SuperTruck program. That program assumes that
such systems can be demonstrated on vehicles by 2017. In this case, the
agencies are projecting that truck manufacturers would be able to begin
implementing these aerodynamic technologies as early as 2021 MY on a
limited scale. Importantly, our averaging, banking and trading
provisions provide manufacturers with the flexibility (and incentive)
to implement these technologies over time even though the standard
changes in a single step.
The aerodynamic adoption rates used to develop the proposed
standards for the other tractor regulatory categories are less
aggressive than for the Class 8 sleeper cab high roof. Aerodynamic
improvements through new tractor designs and the development of new
aerodynamic components is an inherently slow and iterative process. The
agencies recognize that there are tractor applications which require
on/off-road capability and other truck functions which restrict the
type of aerodynamic equipment applicable. We also recognize that these
types of trucks spend less time at highway speeds where aerodynamic
technologies have the greatest benefit. The 2002 VIUS data ranks trucks
by major use.\162\ The heavy trucks usage indicates that up to 35
percent of the trucks may be used in on/off-road applications or
heavier applications. The uses include construction (16 percent),
agriculture (12 percent), waste management (5 percent), and mining (2
percent). Therefore, the agencies analyzed the technologies to evaluate
the potential restrictions that would prevent 100 percent adoption of
more advanced aerodynamic technologies for all of the tractor
regulatory subcategories.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\162\ U.S. Department of Energy. Transportation Energy Data
Book, Edition 28-2009. Table 5.7.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
As discussed in Section III.C.2, the agencies propose to increase
the number of aerodynamic bins for low and mid roof tractors from the
two levels adopted in Phase 1 to four levels in Phase 2. The agencies
propose to increase the number of bins for these tractors to reflect
the actual range of aerodynamic technologies effective in low and mid
roof tractor applications. The aerodynamic improvements to the bumper,
hood, windshield, mirrors, and doors are developed for the high roof
tractor application and then carried over into the low and mid roof
applications.
(ii) Low Rolling Resistance Tire Adoption Rate
For the tire manufacturers to further reduce tire rolling
resistance, the manufacturers must consider several performance
criteria that affect tire selection. The characteristics of a tire also
influence durability, traction control, vehicle handling, comfort, and
retreadability. A single performance parameter can easily be enhanced,
but an optimal balance of all the criteria will require improvements in
materials and tread design at a higher cost, as estimated by the
agencies. Tire design requires balancing performance, since changes in
design may change different performance characteristics in opposing
directions. Similar to the discussion regarding lesser aerodynamic
technology application in tractor segments other than sleeper cab high
roof, the agencies believe that the proposed standards should not be
premised on 100 percent application of Level 3 tires in all tractor
segments given the potential interference with vehicle utility that
could result.
(iii) Weight Reduction Technology Adoption Rate
Unlike in HD Phase 1, the agencies propose setting the 2021 through
2027 model year tractor standards without using weight reduction as a
technology to demonstrate the feasibility. However, as described in
Section III.C.2 below, the agencies are proposing an expanded list of
weight reduction options which could be input into the GEM by the
manufacturers to reduce their certified CO2 emission and
fuel consumption levels. The agencies view weight reduction as a
technology with a high cost that offers a small benefit in the tractor
sector. For example, our estimate of a 400 pound weight reduction would
cost $2,050 (2012$) in 2021MY, but offers a 0.3 percent reduction in
fuel consumption and CO2 emissions.
(iv) Idle Reduction Technology Adoption Rate
Idle reduction technologies provide significant reductions in fuel
consumption and CO2 emissions for Class 8 sleeper cabs and
are available on
[[Page 40224]]
the market today. There are several different technologies available to
reduce idling. These include APUs, diesel fired heaters, and battery
powered units. Our discussions with manufacturers indicate that idle
technologies are sometimes installed in the factory, but it is also a
common practice to have the units installed after the sale of the
truck. We would like to continue to incentivize this practice and to do
so in a manner that the emission reductions associated with idle
reduction technology occur in use. Therefore, as adopted in Phase 1, we
are allowing only idle emission reduction technologies which include an
automatic engine shutoff (AES) with some override provisions.\163\
However, we welcome comment on other approaches that would
appropriately quantify the reductions that would be experienced in the
real world.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\163\ The agencies are proposing to continue the HD Phase 1 AES
override provisions included in 40 CFR 1037.660(b) for driver
safety.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
We propose an overall 90 percent adoption rate for this technology
for Class 8 sleeper cabs. The agencies are unaware of reasons why AES
with extended idle reduction technologies could not be applied to this
high fraction of tractors with a sleeper cab, except those deemed a
vocational tractor, in the available lead time.
The agencies are interested in extending the idle reduction
benefits beyond Class 8 sleepers, to day cabs. The agencies reviewed
literature to quantify the amount of idling which is conducted outside
of hoteling operations. One study, conducted by Argonne National
Laboratory, identified several different types of trucks which might
idle for extended amounts of time during the work day.\164\ Idling may
occur during the delivery process, queuing at loading docks or border
crossings, during power take off operations, or to provide comfort
during the work day. However, the study provided only ``rough
estimates'' of the idle time and energy use for these vehicles. The
agencies are not able to appropriately develop a baseline of workday
idling for day cabs and identify the percent of this idling which could
be reduced through the use of AES. We welcome comment and data on
quantifying the effectiveness of AES on day cabs.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\164\ Gaines, L., A. Vyas, J. Anderson. Estimation of Fuel Use
by Idling Commercial Trucks. January 2006.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
(v) Vehicle Speed Limiter Adoption Rate
As adopted in Phase 1, we propose to continue the approach where
vehicle speed limiters may be used as a technology to meet the proposed
standard. In setting the proposed standard, however, we assumed a zero
percent adoption rate of vehicle speed limiters. Although we believe
vehicle speed limiters are a simple, easy to implement, and inexpensive
technology, we want to leave the use of vehicles speed limiters to the
truck purchaser. Since truck fleets purchase tractors today with owner-
set vehicle speed limiters, we considered not including VSLs in our
compliance model. However, we have concluded that we should allow the
use of VSLs that cannot be overridden by the operator as a means of
compliance for vehicle manufacturers that wish to offer it and truck
purchasers that wish to purchase the technology. In doing so, we are
providing another means of meeting that standard that can lower
compliance cost and provide a more optimal vehicle solution for some
truck fleets or owners. For example, a local beverage distributor may
operate trucks in a distribution network of primarily local roads.
Under those conditions, aerodynamic fairings used to reduce aerodynamic
drag provide little benefit due to the low vehicle speed while adding
additional mass to the vehicle. A vehicle manufacturer could choose to
install a VSL set at 55 mph for this vehicle at the request of the
customer. The resulting tractor would be optimized for its intended
application and would be fully compliant with our program all at a
lower cost to the ultimate tractor purchaser.\165\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\165\ Ibid.
The agencies note that because a VSL value can be input into
GEM, its benefits can be directly assessed with the model and off
cycle credit applications therefore are not necessary even though
the proposed standard is not based on performance of VSLs (i.e. VSL
is an on-cycle technology).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
As in Phase 1, we have chosen not to base the proposed standards on
performance of VSLs because of concerns about how to set a realistic
adoption rate that avoids unintended adverse impacts. Although we
expect there would be some use of VSL, currently it is used when the
fleet involved decides it is feasible and practicable and increases the
overall efficiency of the freight system for that fleet operator. To
date, the compliance data provided by manufacturers indicate that none
of the tractor configurations include a tamper-proof VSL setting less
than 65 mph. At this point the agencies are not in a position to
determine in how many additional situations use of a VSL would result
in similar benefits to overall efficiency or how many customers would
be willing to accept a tamper-proof VSL setting. As discussed in
Section III.E.2.f below, we welcome comment on suggestions to modify
the tamper-proof requirement while maintaining assurance that the speed
limiter is used in-use throughout the life of the vehicle. We are not
able at this time to quantify the potential loss in utility due to the
use of VSLs, but we welcome comment on whether the use of a VSL would
require a fleet to deploy additional tractors. Absent this information,
we cannot make a determination regarding the reasonableness of setting
a standard based on a particular VSL level. Therefore, the agencies are
not premising the proposed standards on use of VSL, and instead would
continue to rely on the industry to select VSL when circumstances are
appropriate for its use. The agencies have not included either the cost
or benefit due to VSLs in analysis of the proposed program's costs and
benefits, therefore it remains a significant flexibility for
manufacturers to choose.
(vi) Summary of the Adoption Rates Used To Determine the Proposed
Standards
Table III-8 through Table III-10 provide the adoption rates of each
technology broken down by weight class, cab configuration, and roof
height.
[[Page 40225]]
Table III-8--Technology Adoption Rates for Class 7 and 8 Tractors for Determining the Proposed 2021 MY Standards
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Class 7 Class 8
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day cab Day Cab Sleeper Cab
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Low roof Mid roof High roof Low roof Mid roof High roof Low roof Mid roof High roof
% % % % % % % % %
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2021 MY Engine Technology Package
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Aerodynamics
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Bin I................................................ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Bin II............................................... 75 75 0 75 75 0 75 75 0
Bin III.............................................. 25 25 40 25 25 40 25 25 40
Bin IV............................................... 0 0 35 0 0 35 0 0 35
Bin V................................................ N/A N/A 20 N/A N/A 20 N/A N/A 20
Bin VI............................................... N/A N/A 5 N/A N/A 5 N/A N/A 5
Bin VII.............................................. N/A N/A 0 N/A N/A 0 N/A N/A 0
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Steer Tires
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Base................................................. 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
Level 1.............................................. 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60
Level 2.............................................. 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25
Level 3.............................................. 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Drive Tires
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Base................................................. 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
Level 1.............................................. 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60
Level 2.............................................. 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25
Level 3.............................................. 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Extended Idle Reduction
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
APU.................................................. N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 80 80 80
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Transmission Type
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Manual............................................... 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
AMT.................................................. 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40
Auto................................................. 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
Dual Clutch.......................................... 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Driveline
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Axle Lubricant....................................... 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
6x2 or 4x2 Axle...................................... ......... ......... ......... 10 10 20 10 10 20
Downspeed............................................ 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
Accessory Improvements
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A/C.................................................. 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
Electric Access...................................... 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Other Technologies
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Predictive Cruise Control............................ 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
Automated Tire Inflation System...................... 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
[[Page 40226]]
Table III-9--Technology Adoption Rates for Class 7 and 8 Tractors for Determining the Proposed 2024 MY Standards
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Class 7 Class 8
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day cab Day cab Sleeper cab
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Low roof Mid roof High roof Low roof Mid roof High roof Low roof Mid roof High roof
% % % % % % % % %
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2024 MY Engine Technology Package
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Aerodynamics
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Bin I................................................ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Bin II............................................... 60 60 0 60 60 0 60 60 0
Bin III.............................................. 38 38 30 38 38 30 38 38 30
Bin IV............................................... 2 2 30 2 2 30 2 2 30
Bin V................................................ N/A N/A 25 N/A N/A 25 N/A N/A 25
Bin VI............................................... N/A N/A 13 N/A N/A 13 N/A N/A 13
Bin VII.............................................. N/A N/A 2 N/A N/A 2 N/A N/A 2
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Steer Tires
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Base................................................. 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
Level 1.............................................. 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50
Level 2.............................................. 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30
Level 3.............................................. 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Drive Tires
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Base................................................. 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
Level 1.............................................. 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50
Level 2.............................................. 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30
Level 3.............................................. 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Extended Idle Reduction
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
APU.................................................. N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 90 90 90
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Transmission Type
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Manual............................................... 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
AMT.................................................. 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50
Auto................................................. 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
Dual Clutch.......................................... 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Driveline
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Axle Lubricant....................................... 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40
6x2 or 4x2 Axle...................................... ......... ......... ......... 20 20 60 20 20 60
Downspeed............................................ 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40
Direct Drive......................................... 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Accessory Improvements
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A/C.................................................. 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
Electric Access...................................... 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Other Technologies
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Predictive Cruise Control............................ 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40
Automated Tire Inflation System...................... 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
[[Page 40227]]
Table III-10--Technology Adoption Rates for Class 7 and 8 Tractors for Determining the Proposed 2027 MY Standards
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Class 7 Class 8
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day cab Day cab Sleeper cab
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Low roof Mid roof High roof Low roof Mid roof High roof Low roof Mid roof High roof
% % % % % % % % %
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2027 MY Engine Technology Package
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Aerodynamics
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Bin I................................................ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Bin II............................................... 50 50 0 50 50 0 50 50 0
Bin III.............................................. 40 40 20 40 40 20 40 40 20
Bin IV............................................... 10 10 20 10 10 20 10 10 20
Bin V................................................ N/A N/A 35 N/A N/A 35 N/A N/A 35
Bin VI............................................... N/A N/A 20 N/A N/A 20 N/A N/A 20
Bin VII.............................................. N/A N/A 5 N/A N/A 5 N/A N/A 5
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Steer Tires
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Base................................................. 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
Level 1.............................................. 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
Level 2.............................................. 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50
Level 3.............................................. 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Drive Tires
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Base................................................. 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
Level 1.............................................. 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
Level 2.............................................. 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50
Level 3.............................................. 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Extended Idle Reduction
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
APU.................................................. N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 90 90 90
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Transmission Type
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Manual............................................... 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
AMT.................................................. 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50
Auto................................................. 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30
Dual Clutch.......................................... 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Driveline
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Axle Lubricant....................................... 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40
6x2 Axle............................................. ......... ......... ......... 20 20 60 20 20 60
Downspeed............................................ 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60
Direct Drive......................................... 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Accessory Improvements
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A/C.................................................. 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30
Electric Access...................................... 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Other Technologies
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Predictive Cruise Control............................ 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40
Automated Tire Inflation System...................... 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(d) Derivation of the Proposed Tractor Standards
The agencies used the technology effectiveness inputs and
technology adoption rates to develop GEM inputs to derive the proposed
HD Phase 2 fuel consumption and CO2 emissions standards for
each subcategory of Class 7 and 8 combination tractors. Note that we
have analyzed one technology pathway for each proposed level of
stringency, but manufacturers would be free to use any combination of
technology to meet the standards, and with the flexibility of
averaging, banking and trading, to meet the standard on average. The
agencies derived a scenario tractor for each subcategory by weighting
the individual GEM input parameters included in Table III-7 with the
adoption rates in Table III-8 through Table III-10. For example, the
proposed CdA value for a 2021MY Class 8 Sleeper Cab High Roof scenario
case was
[[Page 40228]]
derived as 40 percent times 6.3 plus 35 percent times 5.6 plus 20
percent times 5.1 plus 5 percent times 4.7, which is equal to a CdA of
5.74 m\2\. Similar calculations were made for tire rolling resistance,
transmission types, idle reduction, and other technologies. To account
for the proposed engine standards and engine technologies, the agencies
assumed a compliant engine fuel map in GEM.\166\ The agencies then ran
GEM with a single set of vehicle inputs, as shown in Table III-11, to
derive the proposed standards for each subcategory. Additional detail
is provided in the draft RIA Chapter 2.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\166\ See Section II.D above explaining the derivation of the
proposed engine standards.
Table III-11--GEM Inputs for the Proposed 2021MY Class 7 and 8 Tractor Standard Setting
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Class 7 Class 8
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day cab Day cab Sleeper cab
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Low roof Mid roof High roof Low roof Mid roof High roof Low roof Mid roof High roof
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Engine
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2021MY 11L 2021MY 11L 2021MY 11L 2021MY 15L 2021MY 15L 2021MY 15L 2021MY 15L 2021MY 15L 2021MY 15L
Engine 350 Engine 350 Engine 350 Engine 455 Engine 455 Engine 455 Engine 455 Engine 455 Engine 455
HP HP HP HP HP HP HP HP HP
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Aerodynamics (CdA in m\2\)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
4.68 6.08 5.94 4.68 6.08 5.94 4.68 6.08 5.74
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Steer Tires (CRR in kg/metric ton)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Drive Tires (CRR in kg/metric ton)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Extended Idle Reduction Weighted Effectiveness
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 2.5% 2.5% 2.5%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Transmission = 10 speed Automated Manual Transmission
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gear Ratios = 12.8, 9.25, 6.76, 4.90, 3.58, 2.61, 1.89, 1.38, 1.00, 0.73
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Drive axle Ratio = 3.55
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
6x2 Axle Weighted Effectiveness
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
N/A N/A N/A 0.3% 0.3% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.5%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Low Friction Axle Lubrication = 0.1%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Transmission benefit = 1.1%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Predictive Cruise Control = 0.4%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Accessory Improvements = 0.1%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Air Conditioner Efficiency Improvements = 0.1%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Automatic Tire Inflation Systems = 0.2%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Weight Reduction = 0 lbs
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
[[Page 40229]]
Table III-12--GEM Inputs for the Proposed 2024MY Class 7 and 8 Tractor Standard Setting
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Class 7 Class 8
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day cab Day cab Sleeper cab
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Low roof Mid roof High roof Low roof Mid roof High roof Low roof Mid roof High roof
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Engine
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2024MY 11L 2024MY 11L 2024MY 11L 2024MY 15L 2024MY 15L 2024MY 15L 2024MY 15L 2024MY 15L 2024MY 15L
Engine 350 Engine 350 Engine 350 Engine 455 Engine 455 Engine 455 Engine 455 Engine 455 Engine 455
HP HP HP HP HP HP HP HP HP
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Aerodynamics (CdA in m\2\)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
4.59 5.99 5.74 4.59 5.99 5.74 4.59 5.99 5.54
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Steer Tires (CRR in kg/metric ton)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9
Drive Tires (CRR in kg/metric ton)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Extended Idle Reduction Weighted Effectiveness
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 3% 3% 3%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Transmission = 10 speed Automated Manual Transmission
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gear Ratios = 12.8, 9.25, 6.76, 4.90, 3.58, 2.61, 1.89, 1.38, 1.00, 0.73
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Drive axle Ratio = 3.36
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
6x2 Axle Weighted Effectiveness
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
N/A N/A N/A 0.5% 0.5% 1.5% 0.5% 0.5% 1.5%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Low Friction Axle Lubrication = 0.2%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Transmission benefit = 1.6%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Predictive Cruise Control = 0.8%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Accessory Improvements = 0.2%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Air Conditioner Efficiency Improvements = 0.1%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Automatic Tire Inflation Systems = 0.4%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Weight Reduction = 0 lbs
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Direct Drive Weighted Efficiency = 1% for sleeper cabs; 0.8% for day cabs
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table III-13--GEM Inputs for the Proposed 2027MY Class 7 and 8 Tractor Standard Setting
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Class 7 Class 8
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day cab Day cab Sleeper cab
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Low roof Mid roof High roof Low roof Mid roof High roof Low roof Mid roof High roof
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Engine
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2027MY 11L 2027MY 11L 2027MY 11L 2027MY 15L 2027MY 15L 2027MY 15L 2027MY 15L 2027MY 15L 2027MY 15L
Engine 350 Engine 350 Engine 350 Engine 455 Engine 455 Engine 455 Engine 455 Engine 455 Engine 455
HP HP HP HP HP HP HP HP HP
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Aerodynamics (CdA in m\2\)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
4.52 5.92 5.52 4.52 5.92 5.52 4.52 5.92 5.32
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Steer Tires (CRR in kg/metric ton)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
[[Page 40230]]
Drive Tires (CRR in kg/metric ton)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Extended Idle Reduction Weighted Effectiveness
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 3% 3% 3%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Transmission = 10 speed Automated Manual Transmission
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gear Ratios = 12.8, 9.25, 6.76, 4.90, 3.58, 2.61, 1.89, 1.38, 1.00, 0.73
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Drive axle Ratio = 3.2
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
6x2 Axle Weighted Effectiveness
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
N/A N/A N/A 0.5% 0.5% 1.5% 0.5% 0.5% 1.5%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Low Friction Axle Lubrication = 0.2%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Transmission benefit = 1.8%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Predictive Cruise Control = 0.8%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Accessory Improvements = 0.3%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Air Conditioner Efficiency Improvements = 0.2%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Automatic Tire Inflation Systems = 0.4%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Weight Reduction = 0 lbs
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Direct Drive Weighted Efficiency = 1% for sleeper cabs; 0.8% for day cabs
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The proposed level of the 2027 model year standards, in addition to
the phase-in standards in model years 2021 and 2024 for each
subcategory is included in Table III-14.
Table III-14--Proposed 2021, 2024, and 2027 Model Year Tractor Standards
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day cab Sleeper Cab
-----------------------------------------------
Class 7 Class 8 Class 8
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2021 Model Year CO2 Grams per Ton-Mile
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Low Roof........................................................ 97 78 70
Mid Roof........................................................ 107 84 78
High Roof....................................................... 109 86 77
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2021 Model Year Gallons of Fuel per 1,000 Ton-Mile
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Low Roof........................................................ 9.5285 7.6621 6.8762
Mid Roof........................................................ 10.5108 8.2515 7.6621
High Roof....................................................... 10.7073 8.4479 7.5639
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2024 Model Year CO2 Grams per Ton-Mile
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Low Roof........................................................ 90 72 64
Mid Roof........................................................ 100 78 71
High Roof....................................................... 101 79 70
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2024 Model Year and Later Gallons of Fuel per 1,000 Ton-Mile
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Low Roof........................................................ 8.8409 7.0727 6.2868
Mid Roof........................................................ 9.8232 7.6621 6.9745
High Roof....................................................... 9.9214 7.7603 6.8762
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
[[Page 40231]]
2027 Model Year CO2 Grams per Ton-Mile
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Low Roof........................................................ 87 70 62
Mid Roof........................................................ 96 76 69
High Roof....................................................... 96 76 67
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2027 Model Year and Later Gallons of Fuel per 1,000 Ton-Mile
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Low Roof........................................................ 8.5462 6.8762 6.0904
Mid Roof........................................................ 9.4303 7.4656 6.7780
High Roof....................................................... 9.4303 7.4656 6.5815
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A summary of the draft technology package costs is included in
Table III-15 through Table III-17 for MYs 2021, 2024, and 2027,
respectively, with additional details available in the draft RIA
Chapter 2.12. We welcome comments on the technology costs.
Table III-15--Class 7 and 8 Tractor Technology Incremental Costs in the 2021 Model Year \a\ \b\ Preferred
Alternative vs. the Less Dynamic Baseline
[2012$ per vehicle]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Class 7 Class 8
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day cab Day cab Sleeper cab
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Low/mid Low/mid
roof High roof roof High roof Low roof Mid roof High roof
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Engine \c\......................... $314 $314 $314 $314 $314 $314 $314
Aerodynamics....................... 687 511 687 511 656 656 535
Tires.............................. 49 9 81 15 59 59 15
Tire inflation system.............. 180 180 180 180 180 180 180
Transmission....................... 3,969 3,969 3,969 3,969 3,969 3,969 3,969
Axle & axle lubes.................. 50 50 70 90 70 70 90
Idle reduction with APU............ 0 0 0 0 2,449 2,449 2,449
Air conditioning................... 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Other vehicle technologies......... 174 174 174 174 174 174 174
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total.......................... 5,468 5,252 5,520 5,298 7,916 7,916 7,771
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Notes:
\a\ Costs shown are for the 2021 model year and are incremental to the costs of a tractor meeting the Phase 1
standards. These costs include indirect costs via markups along with learning impacts. For a description of
the markups and learning impacts considered in this analysis and how it impacts technology costs for other
years, refer to Chapter 2 of the draft RIA (see draft RIA 2.12).
\b\ Note that values in this table include adoption rates. Therefore, the technology costs shown reflect the
average cost expected for each of the indicated tractor classes. To see the actual estimated technology costs
exclusive of adoption rates, refer to Chapter 2 of the draft RIA (see draft RIA 2.12 in particular).
\c\ Engine costs are for a heavy HD diesel engine meant for a combination tractor. The engine costs in this
table are equal to the engine costs associated with the separate engine standard because both include the same
set of engine technologies (see Section II.D.2.d.i).
Table III-16--Class 7 and 8 Tractor Technology Incremental Costs in the 2024 Model Year \a\ \b\ Preferred
Alternative vs. the Less Dynamic Baseline
[2012$ per vehicle]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Class 7 Class 8
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day cab Day cab Sleeper cab
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Low/mid Low/mid
roof High roof roof High roof Low roof Mid roof High roof
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Engine \c\......................... $904 $904 $904 $904 $904 $904 $904
Aerodynamics....................... 744 684 744 684 712 712 723
Tires.............................. 47 11 78 18 58 58 18
Tire inflation system.............. 330 330 330 330 330 330 330
Transmission....................... 5,883 5,883 5,883 5,883 5,883 5,883 5,883
Axle & axle lubes.................. 92 92 128 200 128 128 200
Idle reduction with APU............ 0 0 0 0 2,687 2,687 2,687
Air conditioning................... 82 82 82 82 82 82 82
[[Page 40232]]
Other vehicle technologies......... 318 318 318 318 318 318 318
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total.......................... 8,400 8,304 8,467 8,419 11,102 11,102 11,145
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Notes:
\a\ Costs shown are for the 2024 model year and are incremental to the costs of a tractor meeting the Phase 1
standards. These costs include indirect costs via markups along with learning impacts. For a description of
the markups and learning impacts considered in this analysis and how it impacts technology costs for other
years, refer to Chapter 2 of the draft RIA (see draft RIA 2.12).
\b\ Note that values in this table include adoption rates. Therefore, the technology costs shown reflect the
average cost expected for each of the indicated tractor classes. To see the actual estimated technology costs
exclusive of adoption rates, refer to Chapter 2 of the draft RIA (see draft RIA 2.12).
\c\ Engine costs are for a heavy HD diesel engine meant for a combination tractor. The engine costs in this
table are equal to the engine costs associated with the separate engine standard because both include the same
set of engine technologies (see Section II.D.2.d.i).
Table III-17--Class 7 and 8 Tractor Technology Incremental Costs in the 2027 Model Year \a\ \b\ Preferred
Alternative vs. the Less Dynamic Baseline
[2012$ per vehicle]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Class 7 Class 8
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day cab Day cab Sleeper cab
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Low/mid Low/mid
roof High roof roof High roof Low roof Mid roof High roof
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Engine \c\......................... $1,698 $1,698 $1,698 $1,698 $1,698 $1,698 $1,698
Aerodynamics....................... 771 765 771 765 733 733 802
Tires.............................. 45 10 75 17 56 56 17
Tire inflation system.............. 314 314 314 314 314 314 314
Transmission....................... 6,797 6,797 6,797 6,797 6,797 6,797 6,797
Axle & axle lubes.................. 97 97 131 200 131 131 200
Idle reduction with APU............ 0 0 0 0 2,596 2,596 2,596
Air conditioning................... 117 117 117 117 117 117 117
Other vehicle technologies......... 302 302 302 302 302 302 302
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total.......................... 10,140 10,099 10,204 10,209 12,744 12,744 12,842
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Notes:
\a\ Costs shown are for the 2027 model year and are incremental to the costs of a tractor meeting the Phase 1
standards. These costs include indirect costs via markups along with learning impacts. For a description of
the markups and learning impacts considered in this analysis and how it impacts technology costs for other
years, refer to Chapter 2 of the draft RIA (see draft RIA 2.12).
\b\ Note that values in this table include adoption rates. Therefore, the technology costs shown reflect the
average cost expected for each of the indicated tractor classes. To see the actual estimated technology costs
exclusive of adoption rates, refer to Chapter 2 of the draft RIA (see draft RIA 2.12 in particular).
\c\ Engine costs are for a heavy HD diesel engine meant for a combination tractor. The engine costs in this
table are equal to the engine costs associated with the separate engine standard because both include the same
set of engine technologies (see Section II.D.2.d.i).
(i) Proposed Heavy-Haul Tractor Standards
For Phase 2, the agencies propose to add a tenth subcategory to the
tractor category for heavy-haul tractors. The agencies recognize the
need for manufacturers to build these types of vehicles for specific
applications and believe the appropriate way to prevent penalizing
these vehicles is to set separate standards recognizing a heavy-haul
vehicle's unique needs, such as requiring a higher horsepower engine or
different transmissions. The agencies are proposing this change in
Phase 2 because unlike in Phase 1 the engine, transmission, and
drivetrain technologies are included in the technology packages used to
determine the stringency of the proposed tractor standards and are
included as manufacturer inputs in GEM. This means that the agencies
can adopt a standard reflecting individualized performance of these
technologies in particular applications, in this case, heavy-haul
tractors, and further, have a means of reliably assessing
individualized performance of these technology at certification.
The typical tractor is designed with a Gross Combined Weight Rating
(GCWR) of approximately 80,000 lbs due to the effective weight limit on
the federal highway system, except in states with preexisting higher
weight limits. The agencies propose to consider tractors with a GCWR
over 120,000 lbs as heavy-haul tractors. Based on comments received
during the development of HD Phase 1 (76 FR 57136-57138) and because we
are not proposing a sales limit for heavy-haul like we have for the
vocational tractors, the agencies also believe it would be appropriate
to further define the heavy-haul vehicle characteristics to
differentiate these vehicles from the vehicles in the other nine
tractor subcategories. The two additional requirements would include
[[Page 40233]]
a total gear reduction greater than or equal to 57:1 and a frame
Resisting Bending Moment (RBM) greater than or equal to 2,000,000 in-
lbs per rail or rail and liner combination. Heavy-haul tractors
typically require the large gear reduction to provide the torque
necessary to start the vehicle moving. These vehicles also typically
require frame rails with extra strength to ensure the ability to haul
heavy loads. We welcome comment on the proposed heavy-haul tractor
specifications, including whether Gross Vehicle Weight Rating (GVWR) or
Gross Axle Weight Rating (GAWR) would be a more appropriate metric to
differentiate between a heavy-haul tractor and a typical tractor.
The agencies propose that heavy-haul tractors demonstrate
compliance with the proposed standards using the day cab drive cycle
weightings of 19 percent transient cycle, 17 percent 55 mph cycle, and
64 percent 65 mph cycle. We also propose that GEM simulates the heavy-
haul tractors with a payload of 43 tons and a total tractor, trailer,
and payload weight of 118,500 lbs. In addition, we propose that the
engines installed in heavy-haul tractors meet the proposed tractor
engine standards included in 40 CFR 1036.108. We welcome comments on
these proposed specifications.
The agencies recognize that certain technologies used to determine
the stringency of the proposed Phase 2 tractor standards are less
applicable to heavy-haul tractors. Heavy-haul tractors are not
typically used in the same manner as long-haul tractors with extended
highway driving, and therefore would experience less benefit from
aerodynamics. Aerodynamic technologies are very effective at reducing
the fuel consumption and GHG emissions of tractors, but only when
traveling at highway speeds. At lower speeds, the aerodynamic
technologies may have a detrimental impact due to the potential of
added weight. The agencies therefore are not considering the use of
aerodynamic technologies in the development of the proposed Phase 2
heavy-haul tractor standards. Moreover, because aerodynamics would not
play a role in the heavy-haul standards, the agencies propose to
combine all of the heavy-haul tractor cab configurations (day and
sleeper) and roof heights (low, mid, and high) into a single heavy-haul
tractor subcategory.\167\ We welcome comment on this approach.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\167\ Since aerodynamic improvements are not part of the
technology package, the agencies likewise are not proposing any bin
structure for the heavy-haul tractor subcategory.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Certain powertrain and drivetrain components are also impacted
during the design of a heavy-haul tractor, including the transmission,
axles, and the engine. Heavy-haul tractors typically require
transmissions with 13 or 18 speeds to provide the ratio spread to
ensure that the tractor is able to start pulling the load from a stop.
Downsped powertrains are typically not an option for heavy-haul
operations because these vehicles require more torque to move the
vehicle because of the heavier load. Finally, due to the loading
requirements of the vehicle, it is not likely that a 6x2 axle
configuration can be used in heavy-haul applications.
The agencies used the following heavy-haul tractor inputs for
developing the proposed 2021, 2024, and 2027 MY standards, as shown in
Table III-18 and Table III-19.
Table III-18--Application Rates for Proposed Heavy-Haul Tractor
Standards
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Heavy-Haul Tractor Application Rates
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
2021MY 2024MY 2027MY
--------------------------------------
Engine 2021 MY 15L 2024 MY 15L 2027 MY 15L
Engine with Engine with Engine with
600 HP (%) 600 HP (%) 600 HP (%)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Aerodynamics--0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Steer Tires
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Phase 1 Baseline................. 5 5 5
Level I.......................... 60 50 20
Level 2.......................... 25 30 50
Level 3.......................... 10 15 25
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Drive Tires
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Phase 1 Baseline................. 5 5 5
Level I.......................... 60 50 20
Level 2.......................... 25 30 50
Level 3.......................... 10 15 25
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Transmission
------------------------------------------------------------------------
AMT.............................. 40 50 50
Automatic........................ 10 20 30
DCT.............................. 5 10 10
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Other Technologies
------------------------------------------------------------------------
6x2 Axle......................... 0 0 0
Low Friction Axle Lubrication.... 20 40 40
Predictive Cruise Control........ 20 40 40
Accessory Improvements........... 10 20 30
Air Conditioner Efficiency 10 20 30
Improvements....................
Automatic Tire Inflation Systems. 20 40 40
[[Page 40234]]
Weight Reduction................. 0 0 0
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table III-19--GEM Inputs for Proposed 2021, 2024 and 2027 MY Heavy-Haul Tractor Standards
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Heavy-haul tractor
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Baseline 2021MY 2024MY 2027MY
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Engine = 2017 MY 15L Engine with 600 Engine = 2021 MY 15L Engine = 2024 MY 15L Engine = 2027 MY 15L
HP. Engine with 600 HP. Engine with 600 HP. Engine with 600 HP
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Aerodynamics (CdA in m\2\) = 5.00
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Steer Tires (CRR in kg/metric ton) = Steer Tires (CRR in kg/ Steer Tires (CRR in kg/ Steer Tires (CRR in kg/
7.0. metric ton) = 6.2. metric ton) = 6.0. metric ton) = 5.8.
Drive Tires (CRR in kg/metric ton) = Drive Tires (CRR in kg/ Drive Tires (CRR in kg/ Drive Tires (CRR in kg/
7.4. metric ton) = 6.6. metric ton) = 6.4. metric ton) = 6.2.
Transmission = 13 speed Manual Transmission = 13 speed Transmission = 13 speed Transmission = 13 speed
Transmission, Gear Ratios = 12.29, Automated Manual Automated Manual Automated Manual
8.51, 6.05, 4.38, 3.20, 2.29, 1.95, Transmission, Gear Transmission, Gear Transmission, Gear
1.62, 1.38, 1.17, 1.00, 0.86, 0.73. Ratios = 12.29, 8.51, Ratios = 12.29, 8.51, Ratios = 12.29, 8.51,
6.05, 4.38, 3.20, 6.05, 4.38, 3.20, 6.05, 4.38, 3.20,
2.29, 1.95, 1.62, 2.29, 1.95, 1.62, 2.29, 1.95, 1.62,
1.38, 1.17, 1.00, 1.38, 1.17, 1.00, 1.38, 1.17, 1.00,
0.86, 0.73. 0.86, 0.73. 0.86, 0.73.
Drive axle Ratio = 3.55.............. Drive axle Ratio = 3.55 Drive axle Ratio = 3.55 Drive axle Ratio =
3.55.
N/A.................................. 6x2 Axle Weighted 6x2 Axle Weighted 6x2 Axle Weighted
Effectiveness = 0%. Effectiveness = 0%. Effectiveness = 0%.
N/A.................................. Low Friction Axle Low Friction Axle Low Friction Axle
Lubrication = 0.1%. Lubrication = 0.2%. Lubrication = 0.2%.
N/A.................................. AMT benefit = 1.1%..... AMT benefit = 1.8%..... AMT benefit = 1.8%.
N/A.................................. Predictive Cruise Predictive Cruise Predictive Cruise
Control = 0.4%. Control = 0.8%. Control = 0.8%.
N/A.................................. Accessory Improvements Accessory Improvements Accessory Improvements
= 0.1%. = 0.2%. = 0.3%.
N/A.................................. Air Conditioner Air Conditioner Air Conditioner
Efficiency Efficiency Efficiency
Improvements = 0.1%. Improvements = 0.1%. Improvements = 0.2%.
N/A.................................. Automatic Tire Automatic Tire Automatic Tire
Inflation Systems = Inflation Systems = Inflation Systems =
0.2%. 0.4%. 0.4%.
N/A.................................. Weight Reduction = 0 Weight Reduction = 0 Weight Reduction = 0
lbs. lbs. lbs.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The baseline 2017 MY heavy-haul tractor would emit 57 grams of
CO2 per ton-mile and consume 5.6 gallons of fuel per 1,000
ton-mile. The agencies propose the heavy-haul standards shown in Table
III-20. We welcome comment on the heavy-haul tractor technology path
and standards proposed by the agencies.
Table III-20--Proposed Heavy-Haul Tractor Standards
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Heavy-haul tractor
--------------------------------------
2021 MY 2024 MY 2027 MY
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Grams of CO2 per Ton-Mile 54 52 51
Standard........................
Gallons of Fuel per 1,000 Ton- 5.3045 5.1081 5.010
Mile............................
------------------------------------------------------------------------
The technology costs associated with the proposed heavy-haul
tractor standards are shown below in Table III-21. We welcome comment
on the technology costs.
[[Page 40235]]
Table III-21--Heavy-Haul Tractor Technology Incremental Costs in the
2021, 2024, and 2027 Model Year \a\ \b\ Preferred Alternative vs. the
Less Dynamic Baseline
[2012$ per vehicle]
------------------------------------------------------------------------
2021 MY 2024 MY 2027 MY
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Engine \c\....................... $314 $904 $1,698
Tires............................ 81 78 75
Tire inflation system............ 180 330 314
Transmission..................... 3,969 5,883 6,797
Axle & axle lubes................ 70 128 200
Air conditioning................. 45 82 117
Other vehicle technologies....... 174 318 302
Total........................ 4,833 7,723 9,503
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Notes:
\a\ Costs shown are for the specified model year and are incremental to
the costs of a tractor meeting the phase 1 standards. These costs
include indirect costs via markups along with learning impacts. For a
description of the markups and learning impacts considered in this
analysis and how it impacts technology costs for other years, refer to
Chapter 2 of the draft RIA (see draft RIA 2.12).
\b\ Note that values in this table include adoption rates. Therefore,
the technology costs shown reflect the average cost expected for each
of the indicated tractor classes. To see the actual estimated
technology costs exclusive of adoption rates, refer to Chapter 2 of
the draft RIA (see draft RIA 2.12 in particular).
\c\ Engine costs are for a heavy HD diesel engine meant for a
combination tractor.
(e) Consistency of the Proposed Tractor Standards With the Agencies'
Legal Authority
The proposed HD Phase 2 standards are based on adoption rates for
technologies that the agencies regard, subject to consideration of
public comment, as the maximum feasible for purposes of EISA Section
32902 (k) and appropriate under CAA Section 202 (a) for the reasons
given in Section III.D.2(b) through (d) above; see also draft RIA
Chapter 2.4. The agencies believe these technologies can be adopted at
the estimated rates for these standards within the lead time provided,
as discussed in draft RIA Chapter 2. The 2021 and 2024 MY standards are
phase-in standards on the path to the 2027 MY standards and were
developed using less aggressive application rates and therefore have
lower technology package costs than the 2027 MY standards. Moreover, we
project the cost of these technologies would be rapidly recovered by
operators due to the associated fuel savings, as shown in the payback
analysis included in Section IX below. The cost per tractor to meet the
proposed 2027 MY standards is projected to range between $10,000 and
$13,000 (much or all of this would be mitigated by the fuel savings
during the first two years of ownership). The agencies note that while
the projected costs are significantly greater than the costs projected
for Phase 1, we still consider that cost to be reasonable, especially
given the relatively short payback period. In this regard the agencies
note that the estimated payback period for tractors of less than two
years \168\ is itself shorter than the estimated payback period for
light duty trucks in the 2017-2025 light duty greenhouse gas standards.
That period was slightly over three years, see 77 FR 62926-62927, which
EPA found to be a highly reasonable given the usual period of ownership
of light trucks is typically five years.\169\ The same is true here.
Ownership of new tractors is customarily four to six years, meaning
that the greenhouse gas and fuel consumption technologies pay for
themselves early on and the purchaser sees overall savings in
succeeding years--while still owning the vehicle.\170\ The agencies
note further that the costs for each subcategory are relatively
proportionate; that is, costs of any single tractor subcategory are not
disproportionately higher (or lower) than any other. Although the
proposal is technology-forcing (especially with respect to aerodynamic
and tire rolling resistance improvements), the agencies believe that
manufacturers retain leeway to develop alternative compliance paths,
increasing the likelihood of the standards' successful implementation.
The agencies also regard these reductions as cost-effective, even
without considering payback period. The agencies estimate the cost per
metric ton of CO2eq reduction without considering fuel
savings to be $20 in 2030, and we estimate the cost per gallon of
avoided fuel consumption to be about $0.25 per gallon, which compares
favorably with the levels of cost effectiveness the agencies found to
be reasonable for light duty trucks.171 172 See 77 FR 62922.
The proposed phase-in 2021 and 2024 MY standards are less stringent and
less costly than the proposed 2027 MY standards. For these reasons, and
because the agencies have carefully considered lead time, EPA believes
they are also reasonable under Section 202(a) of the CAA. Given that
the agencies believe the proposed standards are technically feasible,
are highly cost effective, and highly cost effective when accounting
for the fuel savings, and have no apparent adverse potential impacts
(e.g., there are no projected negative impacts on safety or vehicle
utility), the proposed standards appear to represent a reasonable
choice under Section 202(a) of the CAA and the maximum feasible under
NHTSA's EISA authority at 49 U.S.C. 32902(k)(2).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\168\ See Draft RIA Chapter 7.1.3.
\169\ Auto Remarketing. Length of Ownership Returning to More
Normal Levels; New Registrations Continue Slow Climb. April 1, 2013.
Last accessed on February 26, 2015 at https://www.autoremarketing.com/trends/length-ownership-returning-more-normal-levels-new-registrations-continue-slow-climb.
\170\ North American Council for Freight Efficiency. Barriers to
Increased Adoption of Fuel Efficiency Technologies in Freight
Trucking. July 2013. Page 24.
\171\ See Draft RIA Chapter 7.1.4.
\172\ If using a cost effectiveness metric that treats fuel
savings as a negative cost, net costs per ton of GHG emissions
reduced or per gallon of avoided fuel consumption would be negative
under the proposed standards.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Based on the information before the agencies, we currently believe
that Alternative 3 would be maximum feasible and reasonable for the
tractor segment for the model years in question. The agencies believe
Alternative 4 has potential to be the maximum feasible and reasonable
alternative; however, based on the evidence currently before us, EPA
and NHTSA have outstanding questions regarding relative risks and
benefits of Alternative 4 due to the timeframe envisioned by the
alternative. Alternative 3 is generally designed to achieve the levels
of fuel consumption and GHG reduction that Alternative 4 would achieve,
but with several years of
[[Page 40236]]
additional lead-time--i.e., the Alternative 3 standards would end up in
the same place as the Alternative 4 standards, but several years later,
meaning that manufacturers could, in theory, apply new technology at a
more gradual pace and with greater flexibility. However, Alternative 4
would provide earlier GHG benefits compared to Alternative 3.
(f) Alternative Tractor Standards Considered
The agencies developed and considered other alternative levels of
stringency for the Phase 2 program. The results of the analysis of
these alternatives are discussed below in Section X of the preamble.
For tractors, the agencies developed the following alternatives as
shown in Table III-22.
Table III-22--Summary of Alternatives Considered for the Proposed
Rulemaking
------------------------------------------------------------------------
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Alternative 1..................... No action alternative
Alternative 2..................... Less Stringent than the Proposed
Alternative applying off-the-shelf
technologies.
Alternative 3 (Proposed Proposed Alternative fully phased-in
Alternative). by 2027 MY.
Alternative 4..................... Alternative that pulls ahead the
proposed 2027 MY standards to 2024
MY.
Alternative 5..................... Alternative based on very high
market adoption of advanced
technologies.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
When evaluating the alternatives, it is necessary to evaluate the
impact of a proposed regulation in terms of CO2 emission
reductions, fuel consumption reductions, and technology costs. However,
it is also necessary to consider other aspects, such as manufacturers'
research and development resources, the impact on purchase price, and
the impact on purchasers. Manufacturers are limited in their ability to
develop and implement new technologies due to their human resources and
budget constraints. This has a direct impact on the amount of lead time
that is required to meet any new standards. From the owner/operator
perspective, heavy-duty vehicles are a capital investment for firms and
individuals so large increases in the upfront cost could impact buying
patterns. Though the dollar value of the lifetime fuel savings will far
exceed the upfront technology costs, purchasers often discount future
fuel savings for a number of reasons. The purchaser often has
uncertainty in the amount of fuel savings that can be expected for
their specific operation due to the diversity of the heavy-duty tractor
market. Although a nationwide perspective that averages out this
uncertainty is appropriate for rulemaking analysis, individual
operators must consider their potentially narrow operation. In
addition, purchasers often put a premium on reliability (because
downtime is costly in terms of towing, repair, late deliveries, and
lost revenue) and may perceive any new technology as a potential risk
with respect to reliability. Another factor that purchasers consider is
the impact of a new technology on the resale market, which can also be
impacted by uncertainty.
The agencies selected the proposed standards over the more
stringent alternatives based on considering the relevant statutory
factors. In 2027, the proposed standards achieve up to a 24 percent
reduction in CO2 emissions and fuel consumption compared to
a Phase 1 tractor at a per vehicle cost of approximately $13,000.
Alternative 4 achieves the same percent reduction in CO2
emissions and fuel consumption compared to a Phase 1 tractor, but three
years earlier, at a per vehicle cost of approximately $14,000. The
alternative standards are projected to result in more emission and fuel
consumption reductions from the heavy-duty tractors built in model
years 2021 through 2026.\173\ We project the proposed standards to be
achievable within known design cycles, and we believe these standards
would allow different paths to compliance in addition to the one we
outline and cost here.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\173\ See Tables III-14 and III-27.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
The agencies solicit comment on all of these issues and again note
the possibility of adopting, in a final action, standards that are more
accelerated than those proposed in Alternative 3. The agencies are also
assuming that both the proposed standards and Alternative 4 could be
accomplished with all changes being made during manufacturers' normal
product design cycles. However, we note that doing so would be more
challenging for Alternative 4 and may require accelerated research and
development outside of design cycles with attendant increased costs.
The agencies are especially interested in seeking detailed comments
on Alternative 4. Therefore, we are including the details of the
Alternative 4 analysis below. The adoption rates considered for the
2021 and 2024 MY standards developed for Alternative 4 are shown below
in Table III-23 and Table III-24. The inputs to GEM used to develop the
Alternative 4 CO2 and fuel consumption standards are shown
below in Table III-25 and Table III-26. The standards associated with
Alternative 4 are shown below in Table III-27. Commenters are
encouraged to address all aspects of feasibility analysis, including
costs, the likelihood of developing the technology to achieve
sufficient relaibility within the proposed lead time, and the extent to
which the market could utilize the technology.
(g) Derivation of Alternative 4 Tractor Standards
The adoption rates considered for the 2021 and 2024 MY standards
developed for Alternative 4 are shown below in Table III-23 and Table
III-24. The inputs to GEM used to develop the Alternative 4
CO2 and fuel consumption standards are shown below in Table
III-25 and Table III-26. The standards associated with Alternative 4
are shown below in Table III-27. Commenters are encouraged to address
all aspects of feasibility analysis, including costs, the likelihood of
developing the technology to achieve sufficient relaibility within the
lead time.
[[Page 40237]]
Table III-23--Alternative 4 Adoption Rates for 2021 MY
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Class 7 Class 8
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day cab Day cab Sleeper cab
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Low roof Mid roof High roof Low roof Mid roof High roof Low roof Mid roof High roof
(%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Alternative 4 2021MY Engine Technology Package
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Aerodynamics
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Bin I.............................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Bin II............................. 65 65 0 65 65 0 65 65 0
Bin III............................ 30 30 35 30 30 35 30 30 35
Bin IV............................. 5 5 30 5 5 30 5 5 30
Bin V.............................. N/A N/A 25 N/A N/A 25 N/A N/A 25
Bin VI............................. N/A N/A 10 N/A N/A 10 N/A N/A 10
Bin VII............................ N/A N/A 0 N/A N/A 0 N/A N/A 0
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Steer Tires
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Base............................... 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
Level 1............................ 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35
Level 2............................ 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Level 3............................ 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Drive Tires
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Base............................... 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
Level 1............................ 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35
Level 2............................ 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Level 3............................ 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Extended Idle Reduction
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
APU................................ N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 80 80 80
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Transmission Type
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Manual............................. 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25
AMT................................ 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40
Auto............................... 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30
Dual Clutch........................ 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Driveline
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Axle Lubricant..................... 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
6x2 Axle........................... ........... ........... ........... 10 10 20 10 10 30
Downspeed.......................... 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30
Direct Drive....................... 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Accessory Improvements
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A/C................................ 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
Electric Access.................... 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Other Technologies
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Predictive Cruise Control.......... 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Automated Tire Inflation System.... 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
[[Page 40238]]
Table III-24--Alternative 4 Adoption Rates for 2024 MY
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Class 7 Class 8
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day cab Day cab Sleeper cab
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Low roof Mid roof High roof Low roof Mid roof High roof Low roof Mid roof High roof
(%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Alternative 4 2024MY Engine Technology Package
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
Aerodynamics
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Bin I.............................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Bin II............................. 50 50 0 50 50 0 50 50 0
Bin III............................ 40 40 20 40 40 20 40 40 20
Bin IV............................. 10 10 20 10 10 20 10 10 20
Bin V.............................. N/A N/A 35 N/A N/A 35 N/A N/A 35
Bin VI............................. N/A N/A 20 N/A N/A 20 N/A N/A 20
Bin VII............................ N/A N/A 5 N/A N/A 5 N/A N/A 5
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Steer Tires
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Base............................... 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
Level 1............................ 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
Level 2............................ 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50
Level 3............................ 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Drive Tires
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Base............................... 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
Level 1............................ 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
Level 2............................ 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50
Level 3............................ 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Extended Idle Reduction
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
APU................................ N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 90 90 90
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Transmission Type
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Manual............................. 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
AMT................................ 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50
Auto............................... 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30
Dual Clutch........................ 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Driveline
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Axle Lubricant..................... 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40
6x2 Axle........................... ........... ........... ........... 20 20 60 20 20 60
Downspeed.......................... 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60
Direct Drive....................... 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Accessory Improvements
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A/C................................ 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30
Electric Access.................... 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Other Technologies
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Predictive Cruise Control.......... 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40
Automated Tire Inflation System.... 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
[[Page 40239]]
Table III-25--Alternative 4 GEM Inputs for 2021MY
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Class 7 Class 8
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day cab Day cab Sleeper cab
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Low roof Mid roof High roof Low roof Mid roof High roof Low roof Mid roof High roof
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Engine
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2021MY 11L 2021MY 11L 2021MY 11L 2021MY 15L 2021MY 15L 2021MY 15L 2021MY 15L 2021MY 15L 2021MY 15L
Engine 350 Engine 350 Engine 350 Engine 455 Engine 455 Engine 455 Engine 455 Engine 455 Engine 455
HP--2% HP--2% HP--2% HP--2% HP--2% HP--2% HP--2% HP--2% HP--2%
reduction reduction reduction reduction reduction reduction reduction reduction reduction
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Aerodynamics (CdA in m\2\)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
4.61 6.01 5.83 4.61 6.01 5.83 4.61 6.01 5.63
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Steer Tires (CRR in kg/metric ton)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Drive Tires (CRR in kg/metric ton)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Extended Idle Reduction Weighted Effectiveness
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 2.5% 2.5% 2.5%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Transmission = 10 speed Automated Manual Transmission
Gear Ratios = 12.8, 9.25, 6.76, 4.90, 3.58, 2.61, 1.89, 1.38, 1.00, 0.73
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Drive axle Ratio = 3.45
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
6x2 Axle Weighted Effectiveness
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
N/A N/A N/A 0.3% 0.3% 0.8% 0.3% 0.3% 0.8%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Low Friction Axle Lubrication = 0.1%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Transmission benefit = 1.5%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Predictive Cruise Control = 0.6%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Accessory Improvements = 0.2%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Air Conditioner Efficiency Improvements = 0.1%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Automatic Tire Inflation Systems = 0.3%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Weight Reduction = 0 lbs
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Direct Drive Weighted Efficiency = 1% for sleeper cabs; 0.8% for day cabs
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table III-26--Alternative 4 GEM Inputs for 2024MY
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Class 7 Class 8
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day cab Day cab Sleeper cab
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Low roof Mid roof High roof Low roof Mid roof High roof Low roof Mid roof High roof
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Engine
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2021MY 11L 2021MY 11L 2021MY 11L 2021MY 15L 2021MY 15L 2021MY 15L 2021MY 15L 2021MY 15L 2021MY 15L
Engine 350 Engine 350 Engine 350 Engine 455 Engine 455 Engine 455 Engine 455 Engine 455 Engine 455
HP--4% HP--4% HP--4% HP--4% HP--4% HP--4% HP--4% HP--4% HP--4%
reduction reduction reduction reduction reduction reduction reduction reduction reduction
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Aerodynamics (CdA in m\2\)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
4.52 5.92 5.52 4.52 5.92 5.52 4.52 5.92 5.32
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
[[Page 40240]]
Steer Tires (CRR in kg/metric ton)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Drive Tires (CRR in kg/metric ton)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Extended Idle Reduction Weighted Effectiveness
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 3% 3% 3%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Transmission = 10 speed Automated Manual Transmission
Gear Ratios = 12.8, 9.25, 6.76, 4.90, 3.58, 2.61, 1.89, 1.38, 1.00, 0.73
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Drive axle Ratio = 3.2
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
6x2 Axle Weighted Effectiveness
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
N/A N/A N/A 0.5% 0.5% 1.5% 0.5% 0.5% 1.5%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Low Friction Axle Lubrication = 0.2%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Transmission benefit = 1.8%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Predictive Cruise Control = 0.8%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Accessory Improvements = 0.3%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Air Conditioner Efficiency Improvements = 0.2%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Automatic Tire Inflation Systems = 0.4%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Weight Reduction = 0 lbs
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Direct Drive Weighted Efficiency = 1% for sleeper cabs; 0.8% for day cabs
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table III-27--Tractor Standards Associated with Alternative 4
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day cab Sleeper cab
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Class 7 Class 8 Class 8
------------------------------------------------------------------------
2021 Model Year CO2 Grams per Ton-Mile
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Low Roof......................... 92 74 66
Mid Roof......................... 102 81 74
High Roof........................ 104 82 73
------------------------------------------------------------------------
2021 Model Year Gallons of Fuel per 1,000 Ton-Mile
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Low Roof......................... 9.0373 7.2692 6.4833
Mid Roof......................... 10.0196 7.9568 7.2692
High Roof........................ 10.2161 8.0550 7.1709
------------------------------------------------------------------------
2024 Model Year CO2 Grams per Ton-Mile
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Low Roof......................... 87 70 62
Mid Roof......................... 96 76 69
High Roof........................ 96 76 67
------------------------------------------------------------------------
2024 Model Year and Later Gallons of Fuel per 1,000 Ton-Mile
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Low Roof......................... 8.5462 6.8762 6.0904
Mid Roof......................... 9.4303 7.4656 6.7780
High Roof........................ 9.4303 7.4656 6.5815
------------------------------------------------------------------------
[[Page 40241]]
The technology costs of achieving the reductions projected in
Alternative 4 are included below in Table III-28 and Table III-29.
Table III-28-Class 7 and 8 Tractor Technology Incremental Costs in the 2021 Model Year Alternative 4 vs. the Less Dynamic Baseline \a\ \b\
(2012$ per vehicle)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Class 7 Class 8
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day cab Day cab Sleeper cab
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Low/mid Low/mid
roof High roof roof High roof Low roof Mid roof High roof
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Engine \c\................................................... $656 $656 $656 $656 $656 $656 $656
Aerodynamics................................................. 769 632 769 632 740 740 665
Tires........................................................ 50 11 83 18 61 61 18
Tire inflation system........................................ 271 271 271 271 271 271 271
Transmission................................................. 6,794 6,794 6,794 6,794 6,794 6,794 6,794
Axle & axle lubes............................................ 56 56 75 95 75 75 115
Idle reduction with APU...................................... 0 0 0 0 2,449 2,449 2,449
Air conditioning............................................. 90 90 90 90 90 90 90
Other vehicle technologies................................... 261 261 261 261 261 261 261
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total.................................................... 8,946 8,769 8,999 8,816 11,397 11,397 11,318
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Notes:
\a\ Costs shown are for the 2021 model year and are incremental to the costs of a tractor meeting the Phase 1 standards. These costs include indirect
costs via markups along with learning impacts. For a description of the markups and learning impacts considered in this analysis and how it impacts
technology costs for other years, refer to Chapter 2 of the draft RIA (see draft RIA 2.12).
\b\ Note that values in this table include adoption rates. Therefore, the technology costs shown reflect the average cost expected for each of the
indicated tractor classes. To see the actual estimated technology costs exclusive of adoption rates, refer to Chapter 2 of the draft RIA (see draft
RIA 2.12 in particular).
\c\ Engine costs are for a heavy HD diesel engine meant for a combination tractor. The engine costs in this table are equal to the engine costs
associated with the separate engine standard because both include the same set of engine technologies (see Section II.D.2.e).
Table III-29-Class 7 and 8 Tractor Technology Incremental Costs in the 2024 Model Year Alternative 4 vs. the Less Dynamic Baseline \a\ \b\
(2012$ per vehicle)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Class 7 Class 8
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day cab Day cab Sleeper cab
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Low/mid Low/mid
roof High roof roof High roof Low roof Mid roof High roof
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Engine \c\................................................... $1,885 $1,885 $1,885 $1,885 $1,885 $1,885 $1,885
Aerodynamics................................................. 805 935 805 935 773 773 997
Tires........................................................ 50 14 83 23 63 63 23
Tire inflation system........................................ 330 330 330 330 330 330 330
Transmission................................................. 7,143 7,143 7,143 7,143 7,143 7,143 7,143
Axle & axle lubes............................................ 102 102 138 210 138 138 210
Idle reduction with APU...................................... 0 0 0 0 2,687 2,687 2,687
Air conditioning............................................. 123 123 123 123 123 123 123
Other vehicle technologies................................... 318 318 318 318 318 318 318
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total.................................................... 10,757 10,851 10,826 10,968 13,461 13,461 13,717
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Notes:
\a\ Costs shown are for the 2024 model year and are incremental to the costs of a tractor meeting the Phase 1 standards. These costs include indirect
costs via markups along with learning impacts. For a description of the markups and learning impacts considered in this analysis and how it impacts
technology costs for other years, refer to Chapter 2 of the draft RIA (see draft RIA 2.12).
\b\ Note that values in this table include adoption rates. Therefore, the technology costs shown reflect the average cost expected for each of the
indicated tractor classes. To see the actual estimated technology costs exclusive of adoption rates, refer to Chapter 2 of the draft RIA (see draft
RIA 2.12 in particular).
\c\ Engine costs are for a heavy HD diesel engine meant for a combination tractor. The engine costs in this table are equal to the engine costs
associated with the separate engine standard because both include the same set of engine technologies (see Section II.D.2.e).
E. Proposed Compliance Provisions for Tractors
In HD Phase 1, the agencies developed an entirely new program to
assess the CO2 emissions and fuel consumption of tractors.
The agencies propose to carry over many aspects of the Phase 1
compliance approach, but are proposing to enhance several aspects of
the compliance program. The sections below highlight the key areas that
are the same and those that are different.
(1) HD Phase 2 Compliance Provisions That Remain the Same
The regulatory structure considerations for Phase 2 are discussed
in more detail above in Section II. We welcome comment on all aspects
of the
[[Page 40242]]
compliance program including where we are not proposing any changes.
(a) Application and Certification Process
For the Phase 2 proposed rule, the agencies are proposing to keep
many aspects of the HD Phase 1 tractor compliance program. For example,
the agencies propose to continue to use GEM (as revised for Phase 2),
in coordination with additional component testing by manufacturers to
determine the inputs, to determine compliance with the proposed fuel
efficiency and CO2 standards. Another aspect that we propose
to carry over is the overall compliance approach.
In Phase 1 and as proposed in Phase 2, the general compliance
process in terms of the pre-model year, during the model year, and post
model year activities remain unchanged. The manufacturers would
continue to be required to apply for certification through a single
source, EPA, with limited sets of data and GEM results (see 40 CFR
1037.205). EPA would issue certificates upon approval based on
information submitted through the VERIFY database (see 40 CFR
1037.255). In Phase 1, EPA and NHTSA jointly review and approve
innovative technology requests, i.e. performance of any technology
whose performance is not measured by the GEM simulation tool and is not
in widespread use in the 2010 MY. For Phase 2, the agencies are
proposing a similar process for allowing credits for off-cycle
technologies that are not measured by the GEM simulation tool (see
Section I.B.v. for a more detailed discussion of off-cycle requests).
During the model year, the manufacturers would continue to generate
certification data and conduct GEM runs on each of the vehicle
configurations it builds. After the model year ends, the manufacturers
would submit end of year reports to EPA that include the GEM results
for all of the configurations it builds, along with credit/deficit
balances if applicable (see 40 CFR 1037.250 and 1037.730). EPA and
NHTSA would jointly coordinate on any enforcement action required.
(b) Compliance Requirements
The agencies are also proposing not to change the following
provisions:
Useful life of tractors (40 CFR 1037.105(e) and 1037.106(e))
although added for NHTSA in Phase 2 (40 CFR 535.5)
Emission-related warranty requirements (40 CFR 1037.120)
Maintenance instructions, allowable maintenance, and amending
maintenance instructions (40 CFR 1037.125 and 137.220)
Deterioration factors (40 CFR 1037.205(l) and 1037.241(c))
Vehicle family, subfamily, and configurations (40 CFR
1037.230)
(c) Drive Cycles and Weightings
In Phase 1, the agencies adopted three drive cycles used in GEM to
evaluate the fuel consumption and CO2 emissions from various
vehicle configurations. One of the cycles is the Transient mode of the
California ARB Heavy Heavy-Duty Truck 5 Mode cycle. It is intended to
broadly cover urban driving. The other two cycles represent highway
driving at 55 mph and 65 mph.
The agencies propose to maintain the existing drive cycles and
weighting. For sleeper cabs, the weightings would remain 5 percent of
the Transient cycle, 9 percent of the 55 mph cycle, and 86 percent of
the 65 mph cycle. The day cab results would be weighted based on 19
percent of the transient cycle, 17 percent of the 55 mph cycle, and 64
percent of the 65 mph cycle (see 40 CFR 1037.510(c)). One key
difference in the proposed drive cycles is the addition of grade,
discussed below in Section III.E.2.
The 55 mph and 65 mph drive cycles used in GEM assume constant
speed operation at nominal vehicle speeds with downshifting occurring
if road incline causes a predetermined drop in vehicle speed. In real-
world vehicle operation, traffic conditions and other factors may cause
periodic operation at lower (e.g. creep) or variable vehicle speeds.
The agencies therefore request comment on the need to include segments
of lower or variable speed operation in the nominally 55 mph and 65 mph
drive cycles used in GEM and how this may or may not impact the
strategies manufacturers would develop. We also request data from fleet
operators or others that may track vehicle speed operation of heavy-
duty tractors.
(d) Empty Weight and Payload
The total weight of the tractor-trailer combination is the sum of
the tractor curb weight, the trailer curb weight, and the payload. The
total weight of a vehicle is important because it in part determines
the impact of technologies, such as rolling resistance, on GHG
emissions and fuel consumption. In Phase 2, we are proposing to carry
over the total weight of the tractor-trailer combination used in GEM
for Phase 1. The agencies developed the proposed tractor curb weight
inputs for Phase 2 from actual tractor weights measured in two of EPA's
Phase 1 test programs. The proposed trailer curb weight inputs were
derived from actual trailer weight measurements conducted by EPA and
from weight data provided to ICF International by the trailer
manufacturers.\174\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\174\ ICF International. Investigation of Costs for Strategies
to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions for Heavy-Duty On-road Vehicles.
July 2010. Pages 4-15. Docket Number EPA-HQ-OAR-2010-0162-0044.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
There is a further issue of what payload weight to assign during
compliance testing. In use, trucks operate at different weights at
different times during their operations. The greatest freight transport
efficiency (the amount of fuel required to move a ton of payload) would
be achieved by operating trucks at the maximum load for which they are
designed all of the time. However, this may not always be practicable.
Delivery logistics may dictate partial loading. Some payloads, such as
potato chips, may fill the trailer before it reaches the vehicle's
maximum weight limit. Or full loads simply may not be available
commercially. M.J. Bradley analyzed the Truck Inventory and Use Survey
and found that approximately 9 percent of combination tractor miles
travelled empty, 61 percent are ``cubed-out'' (the trailer is full
before the weight limit is reached), and 30 percent are ``weighed out''
(operating weight equal 80,000 lbs which is the gross vehicle weight
limit on the Federal Interstate Highway System or greater than 80,000
lbs for vehicles traveling on roads outside of the interstate
system).\175\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\175\ M.J. Bradley & Associates. Setting the Stage for
Regulation of Heavy-Duty Vehicle Fuel Economy and GHG Emissions:
Issues and Opportunities. February 2009. Page 35. Analysis based on
1992 Truck Inventory and Use Survey data, where the survey data
allowed developing the distribution of loads instead of merely the
average loads.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
The amount of payload that a tractor can carry depends on the
category (or GVWR and GCWR) of the vehicle. For example, a typical
Class 7 tractor can carry less payload than a Class 8 tractor. For
Phase 1, the agencies used the Federal Highway Administration Truck
Payload Equivalent Factors using Vehicle Inventory and Use Survey
(VIUS) and Vehicle Travel Information System data to determine the
payloads. FHWA's results indicated that the average payload of a Class
8 vehicle ranged from 36,247 to 40,089 lbs, depending on the average
distance travelled per day.\176\ The same study shows that Class 7
vehicles carried between 18,674 and 34,210 lbs of payload also
depending on average distance travelled per day. Based on
[[Page 40243]]
these data, the agencies are proposing to continue to prescribe a fixed
payload of 25,000 lbs for Class 7 tractors and 38,000 lbs for Class 8
tractors for certification testing. The agencies propose to continue to
use a common payload for Class 8 day cabs and sleeper cabs as a
predefined GEM input because the data available do not distinguish
among Class 8 tractor types. These proposed payload values represent a
heavily loaded trailer, but not maximum GVWR, since as described above
the majority of tractors ``cube-out'' rather than ``weigh-out.''
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\176\ The U.S. Federal Highway Administration. Development of
Truck Payload Equivalent Factor. Table 11. Last viewed on March 9,
2010 at https://ops.fhwa.dot.gov/freight/freight_analysis/faf/faf2_reports/reports9/s510_11_12_tables.htm.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Details of the proposed individual weight inputs by regulatory
category, as shown in Table III-30, are included in draft RIA Chapter
3. We welcome comment or new data to support changes to the tractor
weights, or refinements to the heavy-haul tractor, trailer, and payload
weights.
Table III-30--Proposed Combination Tractor Weight Inputs
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Regulatory Tractor tare Trailer weight Total weight
Model type subcategory weight (lbs) (lbs) Payload (lbs) (lbs)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Class 8...................... Sleeper Cab 19,000 13,500 38,000 70,500
High Roof.
Class 8...................... Sleeper Cab Mid 18,750 10,000 38,000 66,750
Roof.
Class 8...................... Sleeper Cab Low 18,500 10,500 38,000 67,000
Roof.
Class 8...................... Day Cab High 17,500 13,500 38,000 69,000
Roof.
Class 8...................... Day Cab Mid 17,100 10,000 38,000 65,100
Roof.
Class 8...................... Day Cab Low 17,000 10,500 38,000 65,500
Roof.
Class 7...................... Day Cab High 11,500 13,500 25,000 50,000
Roof.
Class 7...................... Day Cab Mid 11,100 10,000 25,000 46,100
Roof.
Class 7...................... Day Cab Low 11,000 10,500 25,000 46,500
Roof.
Class 8...................... Heavy-Haul..... 19,000 13,500 86,000 118,500
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(e) Tire Testing
In Phase 1, the manufacturers are required to input their tire
rolling resistance coefficient into GEM. Also in Phase 1, the agencies
adopted the provisions in ISO 28580 to determine the rolling resistance
of tires. As described in 40 CFR 1037.520(c), the agencies require that
at least three tires for each tire design are to be tested at least one
time. Our assessment of the Phase 1 program to date indicates that
these requirements reasonably balance the need for precision,
repeatability, and testing burden. Therefore we propose to carry over
the Phase 1 testing provisions for tire rolling resistance into Phase
2. We welcome comments regarding the proposed tire testing provisions.
In Phase 1, the agencies received comments from stakeholders
highlighting a need to develop a reference lab and alignment tires for
the HD sector. The agencies discussed the lab-to-lab comparison
conducted in the Phase 1 EPA tire test program (76 FR 57184). The
agencies reviewed the rolling resistance data from the tires that were
tested at both the STL and Smithers laboratories to assess inter-
laboratory and test machine variability. The agencies conducted
statistical analysis of the data to gain better understanding of lab-
to-lab correlation and developed an adjustment factor for data measured
at each of the test labs. Based on these results, the agencies believe
the lab-to-lab variation for the STL and Smithers laboratories would
have very small effect on measured rolling resistance values. Based on
the test data, the agencies judge for the HD Phase 2 program to
continue to use the current levels of variability, and the agencies
therefore propose to allow the use of either Smithers or STL
laboratories for determining the tire rolling resistance value.
However, we welcome comment on the need to establish a reference
machine for the HD sector and whether tire testing facilities are
interested in and willing to commit to developing a reference machine.
(2) Key Differences in HD Phase 2 Compliance Provisions
We welcome comment on all aspects of the compliance program for
which we are proposing changes.
(a) Aerodynamic Assessment
In Phase 1, the manufacturers conduct aerodynamic testing to
establish the appropriate bin and GEM input for determining compliance
with the CO2 and fuel consumption standards. The agencies
propose to continue this general approach in HD Phase 2, but make
several enhancements to the aerodynamic assessment of tractors. As
discussed below in this section, we propose some modifications to the
aerodynamic test procedures--the addition of wind averaged yaw in the
aerodynamic assessment, the addition of trailer skirts to the standard
trailer used to determine aerodynamic performance of tractors and
revisions to the aerodynamic bins.
(i) Aerodynamic Test Procedures
The aerodynamic drag of a vehicle is determined by the vehicle's
coefficient of drag (Cd), frontal area, air density and speed.
Quantifying tractor aerodynamics as an input to the GEM presents
technical challenges because of the proliferation of tractor
configurations, and subtle variations in measured aerodynamic values
among various test procedures. In Phase 1, Class 7 and 8 tractor
aerodynamic results are developed by manufacturers using a range of
techniques, including wind tunnel testing, computational fluid
dynamics, and constant speed tests.
We continue to believe a broad approach allowing manufacturers to
use these multiple test procedures to demonstrate aerodynamic
performance of its tractor fleet is appropriate given that no single
test procedure is superior in all aspects to other approaches. However,
we also recognize the need for consistency and a level playing field in
evaluating aerodynamic performance. To address the consistency and
level playing field concerns, NHTSA and EPA adopted in Phase 1, while
working with industry, an approach that identified a reference
aerodynamic test method and a procedure to align results from other
aerodynamic test procedures with the reference method.
The agencies adopted in Phase 1 an enhanced coastdown procedure as
the reference method (see 40 CFR 1066.310) and defined a process for
manufacturers to align drag results from each of their own test methods
to the reference method results using Falt-aero (see 40 CFR 1037.525).
Manufacturers are able to use any aerodynamic evaluation method in
demonstrating a vehicle's aerodynamic performance as long as the method
is aligned to the reference method. The agencies propose to continue to
use this alignment method
[[Page 40244]]
approach to maintain the testing flexibility that manufacturers have
today. However, the agencies propose to increase the rigor in
determining the Falt-aero for Phase 2. Beginning in 2021 MY, we propose
that the manufacturers would be required to determine a new Falt-aero
for each of their tractor models for each aerodynamic test method. In
Phase 1, manufacturers are required to determine their Falt-aero using
only a high roof sleeper cab with a full aerodynamics package (see 40
CFR 1037.521(a)(2) and proposed 40 CFR 1037.525(b)(2)). In Phase 2, we
propose that manufacturers would be required to determine a unique
Falt-aero value for each major model of their high roof day cabs and
high roof sleeper cabs. In Phase 2, we propose that manufacturers may
carry over the Falt-aero value until a model changeover or based on the
agencies' discretion to require up to six new Falt-aero determinations
each year. We welcome comment on the burden associated with this
proposed change to conduct up to six coastdown tests per year per
manufacturer.
Based on feedback received during the development of Phase 1, we
understand that there is interest from some manufacturers to change the
reference method in Phase 2 from coastdown to constant speed testing.
EPA has conducted an aerodynamic test program at Southwest Research
Institute to evaluate both methods in terms of cost of testing, testing
time, testing facility requirements, and repeatability of results.
Details of the analysis and results are included in draft RIA Chapter
3.2. The results showed that the enhanced coastdown test procedures and
analysis produced results with acceptable repeatability and at a lower
cost than the constant speed testing. Based on the results of this
testing, the agencies propose to continue to use the enhanced coastdown
procedure for the reference method in Phase 2.\177\ However, we welcome
comment on the need to change the reference method for the Phase 2
final rule to constant speed testing, including comparisons of
aerodynamic test results using both the coastdown and constant speed
test procedures. In addition, we welcome comments on and suggested
revisions to the constant speed test procedure specifications set forth
in Chapter 3.2.2.2 of the draft RIA and 40 CFR 1037.533. If we
determine that it is appropriate to make the change, then the
aerodynamic bins in the final rule would be adjusted to take into
account the difference in absolute CdA values due to the change in
method.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\177\ Southwest Research Institute. ``Heavy Duty Class 8 Truck
Coastdown and Constant Speed Testing.'' April 2015.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
The agencies are also considering refinements to the computational
fluid dynamics modeling method to determine the aerodynamic performance
of tractors. Specifically, we are considering whether the conditions
for performing the analysis require greater specificity (e.g., wind
speed and direction inclusion, turbulence intensity criteria value) or
if turbulence model and mesh deformation should be required, rather
than ``if applicable,'' for all CFD analysis.\178\ The agencies welcome
comment on the proposed revisions.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\178\ 40 CFR 1037.531 ``Computational fluid dynamics (CFD)''.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
In Phase 1, we adopted interim provisions in 40 CFR 1037.150(k)
that accounted for coastdown measurement variability by allowing a
compliance demonstration based on in-use test results if the drag area
was at or below the maximum drag area allowed for the bin above the bin
to which the vehicle was certified. Since adoption of Phase 1, EPA has
conducted in-use aerodynamic testing and found that uncertainty
associated with coastdown testing is less than anticipated.\179\ In
addition, we are proposing additional enhancements in the Phase 2
coastdown procedures to continue to reduce the variability of coastdown
results, including the impact of environmental conditions. Therefore,
we are proposing to sunset the provision in 40 CFR 1037.150(k) at the
end of the Phase 1 program (after the 2020 model year). We request
comment on whether or not we should factor in a test variability
compliance margin into the aerodynamic test procedure, and therefore
request data on aerodynamic test variability.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\179\ Southwest Research Institute. ``Heavy Duty Class 8 Truck
Coastdown and Constant Speed Testing.'' April 2015.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
(ii) Wind Averaged Drag
In Phase 1, EPA and NHTSA recognized that wind conditions, most
notably wind direction, have a greater impact on real world
CO2 emissions and fuel consumption of heavy-duty trucks than
of light-duty vehicles.\180\ As noted in the NAS report, the wind
average drag coefficient is about 15 percent higher than the zero
degree coefficient of drag.\181\ In addition, the agencies received
comments in Phase 1 that supported the use of wind averaged drag
results for the aerodynamic determination. The agencies considered
adopting the use of a wind averaged drag coefficient in the Phase 1
regulatory program, but ultimately decided to finalize drag values
which represent zero yaw (i.e., representing wind from directly in
front of the vehicle, not from the side) instead. We took this approach
recognizing that the reference method is coastdown testing and it is
not capable of determining wind averaged yaw.\182\ Wind tunnels and CFD
are currently the only tools to accurately assess the influence of wind
speed and direction on a truck's aerodynamic performance. The agencies
recognized, as NAS did, that the results of using the zero yaw approach
may result in fuel consumption predictions that are offset slightly
from real world performance levels, not unlike the offset we see today
between fuel economy test results in the CAFE program and actual fuel
economy performance observed in-use.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\180\ See 2010 NAS Report, page 95
\181\ See 2010 NAS Report, Finding 2-4 on page 39. Also see 2014
NAS Report, Recommendation 3.5.
\182\ See 2010 NAS Report. Page 95.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
As the tractor manufacturers continue to refine the aerodynamics of
tractors, we believe that continuing the zero yaw approach into Phase 2
could potentially impact the overall technology effectiveness or change
the kinds of technology decisions made by the tractor manufacturers in
developing equipment to meet our proposed HD Phase 2 standards.
Therefore, we are proposing aerodynamic test procedures that take into
account the wind averaged drag performance of tractors. The agencies
propose to account for this change in aerodynamic test procedure by
appropriately adjusting the aerodynamic bins to reflect a wind averaged
drag result instead of a zero yaw result.
The agencies propose that beginning in 2021 MY, the manufacturers
would be required to adjust their CdA values to represent a zero yaw
value from coastdown and add the CdA impact of the wind averaged drag.
The impact of wind averaged drag relative to a zero yaw condition can
only be measured in a wind tunnel or with CFD. We welcome data
evaluating the consistency of wind averaged drag measurements between
wind tunnel, CFD, and other potential methods such as constant speed or
coastdown. The agencies propose that manufacturers would use the
following equation to make the necessary adjustments to a coastdown
result to obtain the CdAwad value:
CdAwad = CdAzero,coastdown +
(CdAwad,wind tunnel-CdAzero,wind tunnel) *
Falt-aero
If the manufacturer has a wind averaged CdA value from either a
wind tunnel or CFD, then we propose they
[[Page 40245]]
would use the following equation to obtain the CdAwad value:
CdAwad = CdAwad,wind tunnel or CFD *
Falt-aero
We welcome comment on whether the wind averaged drag should be
determined using a full yaw sweep as specified in Appendix A of the
Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE) recommended practice number J1252
``SAE Wind Tunnel Test Procedure for Trucks and Buses'' (e.g., zero
degree yaw and a six other yaw angles at increments of 3 degrees or
greater) or a subset of specific angles as currently allowed in the
Phase 1 regulations.\183\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\183\ Proposed 40 CFR 1037.525(d)(2); ``Yaw Sweep Corrections''.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
To reduce the testing burden the agencies propose that
manufacturers have the option of determining the offset between zero
yaw and wind averaged yaw either through testing or by using the EPA-
defined default offset. Details regarding the determination of the
offset are included in the draft RIA Chapter 3.2. We propose the
manufacturers would use the following equation if they had a zero yaw
coastdown value and choose not to conduct wind averaged measurements.
CdAwad = CdAzero,coastdown + 0.80
In addition, we propose the manufacturers would use the following
equation if they had a zero yaw wind tunnel or CFD value and choose not
to conduct wind averaged measurements.
CdAwad = (CdAzero,wind tunnel or CFD *
Falt-aero)+0.80
We welcome comments on all aspects of the proposed wind averaged
drag provisions.
(iii) Standard Trailer Definition
Similar to the approach the agencies adopted in Phase 1, NHTSA and
EPA are proposing provisions such that the tractor performance in GEM
is judged assuming the tractor is pulling a standardized trailer.\184\
The agencies believe that an assessment of the tractor fuel consumption
and CO2 emissions should be conducted using a tractor-
trailer combination, as tractors are invariably used in combination
with trailers and this is their essential commercial purpose. Trailers,
of course, also influence the extent of carbon emissions from the
tractor (and vice-versa). We believe that using a standardized trailer
best reflects the impact of the overall weight of the tractor-trailer
and the aerodynamic technologies in actual use, and consequent real-
world performance, where tractors are designed and used with a trailer.
EPA research confirms what one would intuit: tractor-trailer pairings
are almost always optimized. EPA conducted an evaluation of over 4,000
tractor-trailer combinations using live traffic cameras in 2010.\185\
The results showed that approximately 95 percent of the tractors were
matched with the standard trailer specified (high roof tractor with box
trailer, mid roof tractor with tanker trailer, and low roof with
flatbed trailer). Therefore, the agencies propose that Phase 2 GEM
continue to use a predefined typical trailer defined in Phase 1 in
assessing overall performance for test purposes. As such, the high roof
tractors would be paired with a standard box trailer; the mid roof
tractors would be paired with a tanker trailer; and the low roof
tractors would be paired with a flatbed trailer.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\184\ See 40 CFR 1037.501(g).
\185\ See Memo to Docket, Amy Kopin. ``Truck and Trailer Roof
Match Analysis.'' August 2010.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
However, the agencies are proposing to change the definition of the
standard box trailer used by tractor manufacturers to determine the
aerodynamic performance of high roof tractors in Phase 2. We believe
this is necessary to reflect the aerodynamic improvements experienced
by the trailer fleet over the last several years due to influences from
the California Air Resources Board mandate \186\ and EPA's SmartWay
Transport Partnership. The standard box trailer used in Phase 1 to
assess the aerodynamic performance of high roof tractors is a 53 foot
box trailer without any aerodynamic devices. In the development of
Phase 2, the agencies evaluated the increase in adoption rates of
trailer side skirts and boat tails in the market over the last several
years and have seen a marked increase. We estimate that approximately
50 percent of the new trailers sold in 2018 will have trailer side
skirts.187 188 As the agencies look towards the proposed
standards in the 2021 and beyond timeframe, we believe that it is
appropriate to update the standard box trailer definition. In 2021-
2027, we believe the trailer fleet will be a mix of trailers with no
aerodynamics, trailers with skirts, and trailers with advanced aero;
with the advanced aero being a very limited subset of the new trailers
sold each year. Consequently, overall, we believe a trailer with a
skirt will be the most representative of the trailer fleet for the
duration of the regulation timeframe, and plausibly beyond. Therefore,
we are proposing that the standard box trailer in Phase 2--the trailer
assumed during the certification process to be paired with a high roof
tractor--be updated to include a trailer skirt starting in 2021 model
year. Even though the agencies are proposing new box trailer standards
beginning in 2018 MY, we are not proposing to update the standard
trailer in the tractor certification process until 2021 MY, to align
with the new tractor standards. If we were to revise the standardized
trailer definition for Phase 1, then we would need to revise the Phase
1 tractor standards. The details of the trailer skirt definition are
included in 40 CFR 1037.501(g)(1).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\186\ California Air Resources Board. Tractor-Trailer Greenhouse
Gas regulation. Last viewed on September 4, 2014 at https://www.arb.ca.gov/msprog/truckstop/trailers/trailers.htm.
\187\ Ben Sharpe (ICCT) and Mike Roeth (North American Council
for Freight Efficiency), ``Costs and Adoption Rates of Fuel-Saving
Technologies for Trailer in the North American On-Road Freight
Sector'', Feb 2014.
\188\ Frost & Sullivan, ``Strategic Analysis of North American
Semi-trailer Advanced Technology Market'', Feb 2013.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
EPA has conducted extensive aerodynamic testing to quantify the
impact on the coefficient of drag of a high roof tractor due to the
addition of a trailer skirt. Details of the test program and the
results can be found in the draft RIA Chapter 3.2. The results of the
test program indicate that on average, the impact of a trailer skirt
matching the definition of the skirt specified in 40 CFR 1037.501(g)(1)
is approximately 8 percent improvement in coefficient of drag area.
This off-set was used during the development of the Phase 2 aerodynamic
bins.
We seek comment on our proposed HD Phase 2 standard trailer
configuration. We also welcome comments on suggestions on alternative
ways to define the standard trailer, such as developing a certified
computer aided drawing (CAD) model.
(iv) Aerodynamic Bins
The agencies are proposing to continue the approach where the
manufacturer would determine a tractor's aerodynamic drag force through
testing, determine the appropriate predefined aerodynamic bin, and then
input the predefined CdA value for that bin into the GEM. The agencies
proposed Phase 2 aerodynamic bins reflect three changes to the Phase 1
bins--the incorporation of wind averaged drag, the addition of trailer
skirts to the standard box trailer used to determine the aerodynamic
performance of high roof tractors, and the addition of bins to reflect
the continued improvement of tractor aerodynamics in the future.
Because of each of these changes, the aerodynamic bins proposed for
Phase 2 are not directly comparable to the Phase 1 bins.
HD Phase 1 included five aerodynamic bins to cover the spectrum of
aerodynamic performance of high
[[Page 40246]]
roof tractors. Since the development of the Phase 1 rules, the
manufacturers have continued to invest in aerodynamic improvements for
tractors. This continued evolution of aerodynamic performance, both in
production and in the research stage as part of the SuperTruck program,
has consequently led the agencies to propose two additional aerodynamic
technology bins (Bins VI and VII) for high roof tractors. These two new
bins would further segment the Phase 1 aerodynamic Bin V to recognize
the difference in advanced aerodynamic technologies and designs.
In both HD Phase 1 and as proposed by the agencies in Phase 2,
aerodynamic Bin I through Bin V represent tractors sharing similar
levels of technology. The first high roof aerodynamic category, Bin I,
is designed to represent tractor bodies which prioritize appearance or
special duty capabilities over aerodynamics. These Bin I tractors
incorporate few, if any, aerodynamic features and may have several
features that detract from aerodynamics, such as bug deflectors, custom
sunshades, B-pillar exhaust stacks, and others. The second high roof
aerodynamics category is Bin II which roughly represents the
aerodynamic performance of the average new tractor sold in 2010. The
agencies developed this bin to incorporate conventional tractors which
capitalize on a generally aerodynamic shape and avoid classic features
which increase drag. High roof tractors within Bin III build on the
basic aerodynamics of Bin II tractors with added components to reduce
drag in the most significant areas on the tractor, such as integral
roof fairings, side extending gap reducers, fuel tank fairings, and
streamlined grill/hood/mirrors/bumpers, similar to 2013 model year
SmartWay tractors. The Bin IV aerodynamic category for high roof
tractors builds upon the Bin III tractor body with additional
aerodynamic treatments such as underbody airflow treatment, down
exhaust, and lowered ride height, among other technologies. HD Phase 1
Bin V tractors incorporate advanced technologies which are currently in
the prototype stage of development, such as advanced gap reduction,
rearview cameras to replace mirrors, wheel system streamlining, and
advanced body designs. For HD Phase 2, the agencies propose to segment
the aerodynamic performance of these advanced technologies into Bins V
through VII.
In Phase 1, the agencies adopted only two aerodynamic bins for low
and mid roof tractors. The agencies limited the number of bins to
reflect the actual range of aerodynamic technologies effective in low
and mid roof tractor applications. High roof tractors are consistently
paired with box trailer designs, and therefore manufacturers can design
the tractor aerodynamics as a tractor-trailer unit and target specific
areas like the gap between the tractor and trailer. In addition, the
high roof tractors tend to spend more time at high speed operation
which increases the impact of aerodynamics on fuel consumption and GHG
emissions. On the other hand, low and mid roof tractors are designed to
pull variable trailer loads and shapes. They may pull trailers such as
flat bed, low boy, tankers, or bulk carriers. The loads on flat bed
trailers can range from rectangular cartons with tarps, to a single
roll of steel, to a front loader. Due to these variables, manufacturers
do not design unique low and mid roof tractor aerodynamics but instead
use derivatives from their high roof tractor designs. The aerodynamic
improvements to the bumper, hood, windshield, mirrors, and doors are
developed for the high roof tractor application and then carried over
into the low and mid roof applications. As mentioned above, the types
of designs that would move high roof tractors from a Bin III to Bins IV
through VII include features such as gap reducers and integral roof
fairings which would not be appropriate on low and mid roof tractors.
As Phase 2 looks to further improve the aerodynamics for high roof
sleeper cabs, we believe it is also appropriate to expand the number of
bins for low and mid roof tractors too. For Phase 2, the agencies are
proposing to differentiate the aerodynamic performance for low and mid
roof applications with four bins, instead of two, in response to
feedback received from manufacturers of low and mid roof tractors
related to the limited opportunity to incorporate aerodynamic
technologies in their compliance plan. We propose that low and mid roof
tractors may determine the aerodynamic bin based on the aerodynamic bin
of an equivalent high roof tractor, as shown below in Table III-31.
Table III-31--Proposed Phase 2 Revisions to 40 CFR 1037.520(b)(3)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
High roof bin Low and mid roof bin
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Bin I Bin I
Bin II Bin I
Bin III Bin II
Bin IV Bin II
Bin V Bin III
Bin VI Bin III
Bin VII Bin IV
------------------------------------------------------------------------
The agencies developed new high roof tractor aerodynamic bins for
Phase 2 that reflect the change from zero yaw to wind averaged drag,
the more aerodynamic reference trailer, and the addition of two bins.
Details regarding the derivation of the proposed high roof bins are
included in Draft RIA Chapter 3.2.8. The proposed high roof tractor
bins are defined in Table III-32. The proposed revisions to the low and
mid roof tractor bins reflect the addition of two new aerodynamic bins
and are listed in Table III-33.
Table III-32--Proposed Phase 2 Aerodynamic Input Definitions to GEM for
High Roof Tractors
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Class 7 Class 8
--------------------------------------
Day cab Day cab Sleeper cab
--------------------------------------
High roof High roof High roof
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Aerodynamic Test Results (CdAwad in m\2\)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Bin I............................ >=7.5 >=7.5 >=7.3
Bin II........................... 6.8-7.4 6.8-7.4 6.6-7.2
Bin III.......................... 6.2-6.7 6.2-6.7 6.0-6.5
Bin IV........................... 5.6-6.1 5.6-6.1 5.4-5.9
Bin V............................ 5.1-5.5 5.1-5.5 4.9-5.3
Bin VI........................... 4.7-5.0 4.7-5.0 4.5-4.8
Bin VII.......................... <=4.6 <=4.6 <=4.4
------------------------------------------------------------------------
[[Page 40247]]
Aerodynamic Input to GEM (CdAwad in m\2\)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Bin I............................ 7.6 7.6 7.4
Bin II........................... 7.1 7.1 6.9
Bin III.......................... 6.5 6.5 6.3
Bin IV........................... 5.8 5.8 5.6
Bin V............................ 5.3 5.3 5.1
Bin VI........................... 4.9 4.9 4.7
Bin VII.......................... 4.5 4.5 4.3
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table III-33--Proposed Phase 2 Aerodynamic Input Definitions to GEM for Low and Mid Roof Tractors
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Class 7 Class 8
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day cab Day cab Sleeper cab
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Low roof Mid roof Low roof Mid roof Low roof Mid roof
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Aerodynamic Test Results (CdA in m\2\)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Bin I............................. >=5.1 >=6.5 >=5.1 >=6.5 >=5.1 >=6.5
Bin II............................ 4.6-5.0 6.0-6.4 4.6-5.0 6.0-6.4 4.6-5.0 6.0-6.4
Bin III........................... 4.2-4.5 5.6-5.9 4.2-4.5 5.6-5.9 4.2-4.5 5.6-5.9
Bin IV............................ <=4.1 <=5.5 <=4.1 <=5.5 <=4.1 <=5.5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Aerodynamic Input to GEM (CdA in m\2\)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Bin I............................. 5.3 6.7 5.3 6.7 5.3 6.7
Bin II............................ 4.8 6.2 4.8 6.2 4.8 6.2
Bin III........................... 4.3 5.7 4.3 5.7 4.3 5.7
Bin IV............................ 4.0 5.4 4.0 5.4 4.0 5.4
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(b) Road Grade in the Drive Cycles
Road grade can have a significant impact on the overall fuel
economy of a heavy-duty vehicle. Table III-34 shows the results from a
real world evaluation of heavy-duty tractor-trailers conducted by Oak
Ridge National Lab.\189\ The study found that the impact of a mild
upslope of one to four percent led to a decrease in average fuel
economy from 7.33 mpg to 4.35 mpg. These results are as expected
because vehicles consume more fuel while driving on an upslope than
driving on a flat road because the vehicle needs to exert additional
power to overcome the grade resistance force.\190\ The amount of extra
fuel increases with increases in road gradient. On downgrades, vehicles
consume less fuel than on a flat road. However, as shown in the fuel
consumption results in Table III-34, the amount of increase in fuel
consumption on an upslope is greater than the amount of decrease in
fuel consumption on a downslope which leads to a net increase in fuel
consumption. As an example, the data shows that a vehicle would use 0.3
gallons per mile more fuel in a severe upslope than on flat terrain,
but only save 0.1 gallons of fuel per mile on a severe downslope. In
another study, Southwest Research Institute modeling found that the
addition of road grade to a drive cycle has an 8 to 10 percent negative
impact on fuel economy.\191\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\189\ Oakridge National Laboratory. Transportation Energy Book,
Edition 33. Table 5.10 Effect of Terrain on Class 8 Truck Fuel
Economy. 2014. Last accessed on September 19, 2014 at https://cta.ornl.gov/data/Chapter5.shtml.
\190\ Ibid.
\191\ Reinhart, T. (2015). Commercial Medium- and Heavy-Duty
(MD/HD) Truck Fuel Efficiency Technology Study--Report #2.
Washington, DC: National Highway Traffic Safety Administration.
Table III-34--Fuel Consumption Relative to Road Grade
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Average fuel Average fuel
Type of terrain economy (miles per consumption
gallon) (gallons per mile)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Severe upslope (>4%)........ 2.90 0.34
Mild upslope (1% to 4%)..... 4.35 0.23
Flat terrain (1% to 1%)..... 7.33 0.14
Mild downslope (-4% to -1%). 15.11 0.07
Severe downslope (<-4%)..... 23.50 0.04
------------------------------------------------------------------------
[[Page 40248]]
In Phase 1, the agencies did not include road grade. However, we
believe it is important to propose including road grade in Phase 2 to
properly assess the value of technologies, such as downspeeding and the
integration of the engine and transmission, which were not technologies
included in the technology basis for Phase 1 and are not directly
assessed by GEM in its Phase 1 iteration. The addition of road grade to
the drive cycles would be consistent with the NAS recommendation in the
2014 Phase 2 First Report.\192\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\192\ National Academy of Science. ``Reducing the Fuel
Consumption and GHG Emissions of Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicles,
Phase Two, First Report.'' 2014. Recommendation S.3 (3.6).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
The U.S. Department of Energy and EPA have partnered to support a
project aimed at evaluating, refining and/or developing the appropriate
road grade profiles for the 55 mph and 65 mph highway cruise duty
cycles that would be used in the certification of heavy-duty vehicles
to the Phase 2 GHG emission and fuel efficiency standards. The National
Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) was contracted to do this work and
has since developed two pairs of candidate, activity-weighted road
grade profiles representative of U.S. limited-access highways. To this
end, NREL used high-accuracy road grade data and county-specific
vehicle miles traveled data. One pair of the profiles is representative
of the nation's limited-access highways with 55 and 60 mph speed
limits, and another is representative of such highways with speed
limits of 65 to 75 mph. The profiles are distance-based and cover a
maximum distance of 12 and 15 miles, respectively. A report documenting
this NREL work is in the public docket for these proposed rules, and
comments are requested on the recommendations therein.\193\ In addition
to NREL work, the agencies have independently developed yet another
candidate road grade profile for use in the 55 mph and 65 mph highway
cruise duty cycles. While based on the same road grade database
generated by NREL for U.S. restricted-access highways, its design is
predicated on a different approach. The development of this profile is
documented in the memorandum to the docket.\194\ The agencies have
evaluated all of the candidate road grade profiles and have prepared
possible alternative tractor standards based on these profiles. The
agencies request comment on this analysis, which is available in a
memorandum to the docket.\195\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\193\ See NREL Report ``EPA Road Grade profiles'' for DOE-EPA
Interagency Agreement to Refine Drive Cycles for GHG Certification
of Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicles, IA Number DW-89-92402501.
\194\ Memorandum dated April 2015 on Possible Tractor, Trailer,
and Vocational Vehicle Standards Derived from Alternative Road Grade
Profiles.
\195\ Ibid.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
For the proposal, the agencies developed an interim road grade
profile for development of the proposed standards. The agencies are
proposing the inclusion of an interim road grade profile, as shown
below in Figure III-2, in both the 55 mph and 65 mph cycles. The grade
profile was developed by Southwest Research Institute on a 12.5 mile
stretch of restricted-access highway during on-road tests conducted for
EPA's validation of the Phase 2 version of GEM.\196\ The minimum grade
in the interim cycle is -2.1 percent and the maximum grade is 2.4
percent. The cycle spends 30 percent of the distance in grades of +/-
0.5 percent. Overall, the cycle spends approximately 50 percent of the
time in relatively flat terrain with road gradients of less than 1
percent.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\196\ Southwest Research Institute. ``GEM Validation'',
Technical Research Workshop supporting EPA and NHTSA Phase 2
Standards for MD/HD Greenhouse Gas and Fuel Efficiency--December 10
and 11, 2014. Can be accessed at https://www.epa.gov/otaq/climate/regs-heavy-duty.htm.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
The agencies believe the interim cycle has sufficient
representativeness based on a comparison to data from the Department of
Transportation used in the development of the light-duty Federal Test
Procedure cycle (FTP), which found approximately 55 percent of the
vehicle miles traveled were on road gradients of less than 1
percent.\197\ Consequently, we expect that road grade profiles
developed by NREL and by the agencies will not differ significantly
from the interim profile proposed here. The agencies request data from
fleet operators or others that have real world grade profile data.
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\197\ U.S. EPA. FTP Preliminary Report. May 14, 1993. Table 5-1,
page 76. EPA-420-R-93-007.
[GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] TP13JY15.003
(c) Weight Reduction
In Phase 1, the agencies adopted regulations that provided
manufacturers with the ability to use GEM to measure emission reduction
and reductions in fuel consumption resulting from use of high strength
steel and aluminum components for weight reduction,, and to do so
without the burden of entering the curb weight of every tractor
produced. We treated such weight reduction in two ways in Phase 1 to
account for the fact that combination tractor-trailers weigh-out
approximately one-third of the time and cube-out approximately two-
thirds of the time. Therefore, one-third of the weight reduction is
added payload in the denominator while two-thirds of the weight
reduction is subtracted from the overall weight of the vehicle in GEM.
See 76 FR 57153. The agencies also allowed manufacturers to petition
for off-cycle credits for components not measured in GEM.
NHTSA and EPA propose carrying the Phase 1 treatment of weight
reduction into Phase 2. That is, these types of weight reduction,
although not part of the agencies' technology packages for
[[Page 40249]]
the proposed (or alternative) standards, can still be recognized in GEM
up to a point. In addition, the agencies propose to add additional
thermoplastic components to the weight reduction table, as shown below
in Table III-35. The thermoplastic component weight reduction values
were developed in coordination with SABIC, a thermoplastic component
supplier. Also, in Phase 2, we are proposing to recognize the potential
weight reduction opportunities in the powertrain and drivetrain systems
as part of the vehicle inputs into GEM. Therefore, we believe it is
appropriate to also recognize the weight reduction associated with both
smaller engines and 6x2 axles.\198\ We propose including the values
listed in Table III-36 and make them available upon promulgation of the
final Phase 2 rules (i.e., available even under Phase 1). We welcome
comments on all aspects of weight reduction.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\198\ North American Council for Freight Efficiency.
``Confidence Findings on the Potential of 6x2 Axles.'' 2014. Page
16.
Table III-35--Proposed Phase 2 Weight Reduction Technologies for Tractors
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Weight reduction technology Weight reduction
(lb per tire/wheel)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Single Wide Drive Tire with..................... Steel Wheel............................ 84
Aluminum Wheel......................... 139
Light Weight Aluminum Wheel............ 147
Steer Tire or Dual Wide Drive Tire with......... High Strength Steel Wheel.............. 8
Aluminum Wheel......................... 21
Light Weight Aluminum Wheel............ 30
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Aluminum High strength Thermoplastic
weight steel weight weight
Weight reduction technologies reduction reduction reduction
(lb.) (lb.) (lb.)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Door (per door).............................................. 20 6 ...............
Roof (per vehicle)........................................... 60 18 ...............
Cab rear wall (per vehicle).................................. 49 16 ...............
Cab floor (per vehicle)...................................... 56 18 ...............
Hood (per vehicle)........................................... 55 17 ...............
Hood Support Structure (per vehicle)......................... 15 3 ...............
Hood and Front Fender (per vehicle).......................... ............... ............... 65
Day Cab Roof Fairing (per vehicle)........................... ............... ............... 18
Sleeper Cab Roof Fairing (per vehicle)....................... 75 20 40
Aerodynamic Side Extender (per vehicle)...................... ............... ............... 10
Fairing Support Structure (per vehicle)...................... 35 6 ...............
Instrument Panel Support Structure (per vehicle)............. 5 1 ...............
Brake Drums--Drive (per 4)................................... 140 11 ...............
Brake Drums--Non Drive (per 2)............................... 60 8 ...............
Frame Rails (per vehicle).................................... 440 87 ...............
Crossmember--Cab (per vehicle)............................... 15 5 ...............
Crossmember--Suspension (per vehicle)........................ 25 6 ...............
Crossmember--Non Suspension ( per 3)......................... 15 5 ...............
Fifth Wheel (per vehicle).................................... 100 25 ...............
Radiator Support (per vehicle)............................... 20 6 ...............
Fuel Tank Support Structure (per vehicle).................... 40 12 ...............
Steps (per vehicle).......................................... 35 6 ...............
Bumper (per vehicle)......................................... 33 10 ...............
Shackles (per vehicle)....................................... 10 3 ...............
Front Axle (per vehicle)..................................... 60 15 ...............
Suspension Brackets, Hangers (per vehicle)................... 100 30 ...............
Transmission Case (per vehicle).............................. 50 12 ...............
Clutch Housing (per vehicle)................................. 40 10 ...............
Drive Axle Hubs (per 4)...................................... 80 20 ...............
Non Drive Front Hubs (per 2)................................. 40 5 ...............
Driveshaft (per vehicle)..................................... 20 5 ...............
Transmission/Clutch Shift Levers (per vehicle)............... 20 4 ...............
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table III-36--Proposed Phase 2 Weight Reduction Values for Other
Components
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Weight reduction
Weight reduction technology (lb)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
6x2 axle configuration in tractors................ 300
4x2 axle configuration in Class 8 tractors........ 300
Tractor engine with displacement less than 14.0L.. \199\300
CI Liquified Natural Gas tractor.................. \200\ \201\-600
SI Compressed Natural Gas tractor................. -525
[[Page 40250]]
CI Compressed Natural Gas tractor................. -900
------------------------------------------------------------------------
(d) GEM Inputs
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\199\ Kenworth. ``Kenworth T680 with PACCAR MX-13 Engine Lowers
Costs for Oregon Open-Deck Carrier.'' Last viewed on December 16,
2014 at https://www.kenworth.com/news/news-releases/2013/december/t680-cotc.aspx.
\200\ National Energy Policy Institute. ``What Set of Conditions
Would Make the Business Case to Convert Heavy Trucks to Natural
Gas?--A Case Study.'' May 1, 2012. Last accessed on December 15,
2014 at https://www.tagnaturalgasinfo.com/uploads/1/2/2/3/12232668/natural_gas_for_heavy_trucks.pdf.
\201\ Westport presentation (2013). Last accessed on December
15, 2014 at https://www.westport.com/file_library/files/webinar/2013-06-19_CNGandLNG.pdf.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
The agencies propose to continue to require the Phase 1 GEM inputs
for tractors in Phase 2. These inputs include the following:
Steer tire rolling resistance,
Drive tire rolling resistance,
Coefficient of Drag Area,
Idle Reduction, and
Vehicle Speed Limiter.
As discussed above in Section II.C and III.D, there are several
additional inputs that are proposed for Phase 2. The new GEM inputs
proposed for Phase 2 include the following:
Engine information including manufacturer, model,
combustion type, fuel type, family name, and calibration identification
Engine fuel map,
Engine full-load torque curve,
Engine motoring curve,
Transmission information including manufacturer and model
Transmission type,
Transmission gear ratios,
Drive axle ratio,
Loaded tire radius for drive tires, and
Other technology inputs.
The agencies welcome comments on the inclusion of these proposed
technologies into GEM in Phase 2.
(e) Vehicle Speed Limiters and Extended Idle Provisions
The agencies received comments during the development of Phase 1
that the Clean Air Act provisions to prevent tampering (CAA section
203(a)(3)(A); 42 U.S.C. 7522(a)(3)(A)) of vehicle speed limiters and
extended idle reduction technologies would prohibit their use for
demonstrating compliance with the Phase 1 standards. In Phase 1, the
agencies adopted provisions to allow for discounted credits for idle
reduction technologies that allowed for override conditions and
expiring engine shutdown systems (see 40 CFR 1037.660). Similarly, the
agencies adopted provisions to allow for ``soft top'' speeds and
expiring vehicle speed limiters, and we are not proposing to change
those provisions (see 40 CFR 1037.640). However, as we develop Phase 2,
we understand that the concerns still exist that the ability for a
tractor manufacturer to reflect the use of a VSL in its compliance
determination may be constrained by the demand for flexibility in the
use of VSLs by the customers. . The agencies welcome suggestions on how
to close the gap between the provisions that would be acceptable to the
industry while maintaining our need to ensure that modifications do not
violate 42 U.S.C. 7522(a)(3)(A). We request comment on potential
approaches which would enable feedback mechanism between the vehicle
owner/fleet that would provide the agencies the assurance that the
benefits of the VSLs will be seen in use but which also provides the
vehicle owner/fleet the flexibility they many need during in-use
operation. More generally in our discussions with several trucking
fleets and with the American Trucking Associations an interest was
expressed by the fleets if there was a means by which they could
participate in the emissions credit transactions which is currently
limited to the directly regulated truck manufacturers. VSLs and
extended idle systems were two example technologies that fleets and
individual owners can order for a new build truck, and that from the
fleet's perspective the truck manufacturers receive emission credits
for. The agencies do not have a specific proposal or a position on the
request from the American Trucking Association and its members, but we
request comment on whether or not it is appropriate to allow owners to
participate in the overall compliance process for the directly
regulated parties, if such a thing is allowed under the two agencies'
respective statutes, and what regulatory provisions would be needed to
incorporate such an approach.
(f) Emission Control Labels
The agencies consider it crucial that authorized compliance
inspectors are able to identify whether a vehicle is certified, and if
so whether it is in its certified condition. To facilitate this
identification in Phase 1, EPA adopted labeling provisions for tractors
that included several items. The Phase 1 tractor label must include the
manufacturer, vehicle identifier such as the Vehicle Identification
Number (VIN), vehicle family, regulatory subcategory, date of
manufacture, compliance statements, and emission control system
identifiers (see 40 CFR 1037.135). In Phase 1, the emission control
system identifiers are limited to vehicle speed limiters, idle
reduction technology, tire rolling resistance, some aerodynamic
components, and other innovative and advanced technologies.
The number of proposed emission control systems for greenhouse gas
emissions in Phase 2 has increased significantly. For example, the
engine, transmission, drive axle ratio, accessories, tire radius, wind
averaged drag, predictive cruise control, and automatic tire inflation
system are controls which can be evaluated on-cycle in Phase 2 (i.e.
these technologies' performance can now be input to GEM), but could not
be in Phase 1. Due to the complexity in determining greenhouse gas
emissions as proposed in Phase 2, the agencies do not believe that we
can unambiguously determine whether or not a vehicle is in a certified
condition through simply comparing information that could be made
available on an emission control label with the components installed on
a vehicle. Therefore, EPA proposes to remove the requirement to include
the emission control system identifiers required in 40 CFR
1037.135(c)(6) and in Appendix III to 40 CFR part 1037 from the
emission control labels for vehicles certified to the Phase 2
standards. However, the agencies may finalize requirements to maintain
some label content to facilitate a limited visual inspection of key
vehicle parameters that can be readily observed. Such requirements may
be very similar to the labeling requirements from the Phase 1
rulemaking, though we would want to more carefully consider the list of
technologies that would allow for the most effective inspection. We
request comment on an appropriate list of candidate technologies that
would properly balance the need to limit label content with the
interest in providing the most useful information for inspectors to
confirm that vehicles have been properly built. We are not proposing to
modify the existing emission control labels for tractors certified for
MYs 2014-2020 (Phase 1) CO2 standards.
Under the agencies' existing authorities, manufacturers must
provide detailed build information for a specific vehicle upon our
request. Our expectation is that this information should be available
to us via email or other similar electronic communication
[[Page 40251]]
on a same-day basis, or within 24 hours of a request at most. We
request comment on any practical limitations in promptly providing this
information. We also request comment on approaches that would minimize
burden for manufacturers to respond to requests for vehicle build
information and would expedite an authorized compliance inspector's
visual inspection. For example, the agencies have started to explore
ideas that would provide inspectors with an electronic method to
identify vehicles and access on-line databases that would list all of
the engine-specific and vehicle-specific emissions control system
information. We believe that electronic and Internet technology exists
today for using scan tools to read a bar code or radio frequency
identification tag affixed to a vehicle that would then lead to secure
on-line access to a database of manufacturers' detailed vehicle and
engine build information. Our exploratory work on these ideas has
raised questions about the level of effort that would be required to
develop, implement and maintain an information technology system to
provide inspectors real-time access to this information. We have also
considered questions about privacy and data security. We request
comment on the concept of electronic labels and database access,
including any available information on similar systems that exist today
and on burden estimates and approaches that could address concerns
about privacy and data security. Based on new information that we
receive, we may consider initiating a separate rulemaking effort to
propose and request comment on implementing such an approach.
(g) End of Year Reports
In the Phase 1 program, manufacturers participating in the ABT
program provided 90 day and 270 day reports to EPA and NHTSA after the
end of the model year. The agencies adopted two reports for the initial
program to help manufacturers become familiar with the reporting
process. For the HD Phase 2 program, the agencies propose to simplify
reporting such that manufacturers would only be required to submit the
final report 90 days after the end of the model year with the potential
to obtain approval for a delay up to 30 days. We are accordingly
proposing to eliminate the end of year report, which represents a
preliminary set of ABT figures for the preceding year. We welcome
comment on this proposed revision.
(h) Special Compliance Provisions
In Phase 2, the agencies propose to consider the performance of the
engine, transmission, and drivetrain in determining compliance with the
Phase 2 tractor standards. With the inclusion of the engine's
performance in the vehicle compliance, EPA proposes to modify the
prohibition to introducing into U.S. commerce a tractor containing an
engine not certified for use in tractor (see proposed 40 CFR
1037.601(a)(1)). In Phase 2, we no longer see the need to prohibit the
use of vocational engines in tractors because the performance of the
engine would be appropriately reflected in GEM. We welcome comment on
removing this prohibition.
The agencies also propose to change the compliance process for
manufacturers seeking to use the off-road exclusion. During the Phase 1
program, manufacturers realized that contacting the agencies in advance
of the model year was necessary to determine whether vehicles would
qualify for exemption and need approved certificates of conformity. The
agencies found that the petition process allowed at the end of the
model year was not necessary and that an informal approval during the
precertification period was more effective. Therefore, NHTSA is
proposing to remove its off-road petitioning process in 49 CFR 535.8
and EPA is proposing to add requirements for informal approvals in 40
CFR 1037.610.
(i) Chassis Dynamometer Testing Requirement
The agencies foresee the need to continue to track the progress of
the Phase 2 program throughout its implementation. As discussed in
Section II, the agencies expect to evaluate the overall performance of
tractors with the GEM results provided by manufacturers through the end
of year reports. However, we also need to continue to have confidence
in our simulation tool, GEM, as the vehicle technologies continue to
evolve. Therefore, EPA proposes that the manufacturers conduct annual
chassis dynamometer testing of three sleeper cabs tractor and two day
cab tractor and provide the data and the GEM result from each of these
two tractor configurations to EPA (see 40 CFR 1037.665). We request
comment on the costs and efficacy of this data submission requirement.
We emphasize that this program would not be used for compliance or
enforcement purposes.
F. Flexibility Provisions
EPA and NHTSA are proposing two flexibility provisions specifically
for heavy-duty tractor manufacturers in Phase 2. These are an
averaging, banking and trading program for CO2 emissions and
fuel consumption credits, as well as provisions for credits for off-
cycle technologies which are not included as inputs to the GEM. Credits
generated under these provisions can only be used within the same
averaging set which generated the credit.
The agencies are also proposing to remove or modify several Phase 1
interim provisions, as described below.
(1) Averaging, Banking, and Trading (ABT) Program
Averaging, banking, and trading of emission credits have been an
important part of many EPA mobile source programs under CAA Title II,
and the NHTSA light-duty CAFE program. The agencies also included this
flexibility in the HD Phase 1 program. ABT provisions are useful
because they can help to address many potential issues of technological
feasibility and lead-time, as well as considerations of cost. They
provide manufacturers flexibilities that assist in the efficient
development and implementation of new technologies and therefore enable
new technologies to be implemented at a more aggressive pace than
without ABT. A well-designed ABT program can also provide important
environmental and energy security benefits by increasing the speed at
which new technologies can be implemented. Between MYs 2013 and 2014
all four tractor manufacturers are taking advantage of the ABT
provisions in the Phase 1 program. NHTSA and EPA propose to carry-over
the Phase 1 ABT provisions for tractors into Phase 2.
The agencies propose to continue the five year credit life and
three year deficit carry-over provisions from Phase 1 (40 CFR
1037.740(c) and 1037.745). Please see additional discussion in Section
I.C.1.b. Although we are not proposing any additional restrictions on
the use of Phase 1 credits, we are requesting comment on this issue.
Early indications suggest that positive market reception to the Phase 1
technologies could lead to manufacturers accumulating credits surpluses
that could be quite large at the beginning of the proposed Phase 2
program. This appears especially likely for tractors. The agencies are
specifically requesting comment on the likelihood of this happening,
and whether any regulatory changes would be appropriate. For example,
should the agencies limit the amount of credits than could be carried
[[Page 40252]]
over from Phase 1 or limit them to the first year or two of the Phase 2
program? Also, if we determine that large surpluses are likely, how
should that factor into our decision on the feasibility of more
stringent standards in MY 2021?
We welcome comments on these proposed flexibilities and are
interested in information that may indicate doing as proposed could
distort the heavy-duty vehicle market.
(2) Off-Cycle Technology Credits
In Phase 1, the agencies adopted an emissions and fuel consumption
credit generating opportunity that applied to innovative technologies
that reduce fuel consumption and CO2 emissions. These
technologies were required to not be in common use with heavy-duty
vehicles before the 2010MY and not reflected in the GEM simulation tool
(i.e., the benefits are ``off-cycle''). See 76 FR 57253. The agencies
propose to largely continue, but redesignate the Phase 1 innovative
technology program as part of the off-cycle program for Phase 2. In
other words, beginning in 2021 MY all technologies that are not fully
accounted for in the GEM simulation tool, or by compliance dynamometer
testing could be considered off-cycle, including those technologies
that may have been considered innovative technologies in Phase 1 of the
program. The agencies propose to maintain the requirement that, in
order for a manufacturer to receive credits for Phase 2, the off-cycle
technology would still need to meet the requirement that it was not in
common use prior to MY 2010. For additional information on the
treatment of off-cycle technologies see Section I.C.1.c.
The agencies are proposing a split process for handling off-cycle
technologies in Phase 2. First, there is a set of predefined off-cycle
technologies that are entering the market today, but could be fully-
recognized in our proposed HD Phase 2 certification procedures.
Examples of such technologies include predictive cruise control, 6x2
axles, axle lubricants, automated tire inflation systems, and air
conditioning efficiency improvements. For these technologies, the
agencies propose to define the effectiveness value of these
technologies similar to the approach taken in the MY2017-2025 light-
duty rule (see 77 FR 62832-62840 (October 15, 2012)). These default
effectiveness values could be used as valid inputs to Phase 2 GEM. The
proposed effectiveness value of each technology is discussed above in
Section III.D.2.
The agencies also recognize that there are emerging technologies
today that are being developed, but would not be accounted for in the
GEM inputs, therefore would be considered off-cycle. These technologies
could include systems such as efficient steering systems, cooling fan
optimization, and further tractor-trailer integration. These off-cycle
technologies could include known, commercialized technologies if they
are not yet widely utilized in a particular heavy-duty sector
subcategory. Any credits for these technologies would need to be based
on real-world fuel consumption and GHG reductions that can be measured
with verifiable test methods using representative driving conditions
typical of the engine or vehicle application.
The agencies propose that the approval for Phase 1 innovative
technology credits (approved prior to 2021 MY) would be carried into
the Phase 2 program on a limited basis for those technologies where the
benefit is not accounted for in the Phase 2 test procedure. Therefore,
the manufacturers would not be required to request new approval for any
innovative credits carried into the off-cycle program, but would have
to demonstrate the new cycle does not account for these improvements
beginning in the 2021 MY. The agencies believe this is appropriate
because technologies, such as those related to the transmission or
driveline, may no longer be ``off-cycle'' because of the addition of
these technologies into the Phase 2 version of GEM. The agencies also
seek comments on whether off-cycle technologies in the Phase 2 program
should be limited by infrequent common use and by what model years, if
any. We also seek comments on an appropriate penetration rate for a
technology not to be considered in common use.
As in Phase 1, the agencies are proposing to continue to provide
two paths for approval of the test procedure to measure the
CO2 emissions and fuel consumption reductions of an off-
cycle technology used in the HD tractor. See proposed 40 CFR 1037.610
and 49 CFR 535.7. The first path would not require a public approval
process of the test method. A manufacturer could use ``pre-approved''
test methods for HD vehicles including the A-to-B chassis testing,
powerpack testing or on-road testing. A manufacturer may also use any
developed test procedure that has known quantifiable benefits. A test
plan detailing the testing methodology would be required to be approved
prior to collecting any test data. The agencies are also proposing to
continue the second path, which includes a public approval process of
any testing method that could have questionable benefits (i.e., an
unknown usage rate for a technology). Furthermore, the agencies are
proposing to modify their provisions to clarify what documentation must
be submitted for approval, which would align them with provisions in 40
CFR 86.1869-12. NHTSA and EPA are also proposing to prohibit credits
from technologies addressed by any of NHTSA's crash avoidance safety
rulemakings (i.e., congestion management systems). See 77 FR 62733
(discussing similar issues in the context of the light-duty fuel
economy and greenhouse gas reduction standards). We welcome
recommendations on how to improve or streamline the off-cycle
technology approval process.
(3) Post Useful Life Modifications
Under 40 CFR part 1037, it is generally prohibited for any person
to remove or render inoperative any emission control device installed
to comply with the requirements of part 1037. However, in 40 CFR
1037.655 EPA clarifies that certain vehicle modifications are allowed
after a vehicle reaches the end of its regulatory useful life. This
section applies for all vehicles subject to 40 CFR part 1037 and would
thus apply for trailers regulated in Phase 2. EPA is proposing to
continue this provision and requests comment on it.
This section states (as examples) that it is generally allowable to
remove tractor roof fairings after the end of the vehicle's useful life
if the vehicle will no longer be used primarily to pull box trailers,
or to remove other fairings if the vehicle will no longer be used
significantly on highways with vehicle speed of 55 miles per hour or
higher. More generally, this section clarifies that owners may modify a
vehicle for the purpose of reducing emissions, provided they have a
reasonable technical basis for knowing that such modification will not
increase emissions of any other pollutant. This essentially requires
the owner to have information that would lead an engineer or other
person familiar with engine and vehicle design and function to
reasonably believe that the modifications will not increase emissions
of any regulated pollutant. Thus, this provision does not provide a
blanket allowance for modifications after the useful life.
This section also makes clear that no person may ever disable a
vehicle speed limiter prior to its expiration point, or remove
aerodynamic fairings from tractors that are used primarily to pull box
trailers on highways. It is also clear that this allowance does not
apply with
[[Page 40253]]
respect to engine modifications or recalibrations.
This section does not apply with respect to modifications that
occur within the useful life period, other than to note that many such
modifications to the vehicle during the useful life and to the engine
at any time are presumed to violate 42 U.S.C. 7522(a)(3)(A). EPA notes,
however, that this is merely a presumption, and would not prohibit
modifications during the useful life where the owner clearly has a
reasonable technical basis for knowing that the modifications would not
cause the vehicle to exceed any applicable standard.
(4) Other Interim Provisions
In HD Phase 1, EPA adopted provisions to delay the onboard
diagnostics (OBD) requirements for heavy-duty hybrid powertrains (see
40 CFR 86.010-18(q)). This provision delayed full OBD requirements for
hybrids until 2016 and 2017 model years. In discussion with
manufacturers during the development of Phase 2, the agencies have
learned that meeting the on-board diagnostic requirements for criteria
pollutant engine certification continues to be a potential impediment
to adoption of hybrid systems. See Section XIV.A.1 for a discussion of
regulatory changes proposed to reduce the non-GHG certification burden
for engines paired with hybrid powertrain systems.
(5) Phase 1 Flexibilities Not Proposed for Phase 2
The Phase 1 advanced technology credits were adopted to promote the
implementation of advanced technologies, such as hybrid powertrains,
Rankine cycle engines, all-electric vehicles, and fuel cell vehicles
(see 40 CFR 1037.150(i)). As the agencies stated in the Phase 1 final
rule, the Phase 1 standards were not premised on the use of advanced
technologies but we expected these advanced technologies to be an
important part of the Phase 2 rulemaking (76 FR 57133, September 15,
2011). The proposed HD Phase 2 heavy-duty engine and tractor standards
are premised on the use of Rankine-cycle engines, therefore the
agencies believe it is no longer appropriate to provide extra credit
for this technology. While the agencies have not premised the proposed
HD Phase 2 tractor standards on hybrid powertrains, fuel cells, or
electric vehicles, we also foresee some limited use of these
technologies in 2021 and beyond. Therefore, we propose to not provide
advanced technology credits in Phase 2 for any technology, but we
welcome comments on the need for such incentive.
Also in Phase 1, the agencies adopted early credits to create
incentives for manufacturers to introduce more efficient engines and
vehicles earlier than they otherwise would have planned to do (see 40
CFR 1037.150(a)). The agencies are not proposing to extend this
flexibility to Phase 2 because the ABT program from Phase 1 will be
available to manufacturers in 2020 model year and this would displace
the need for early credits.
IV. Trailers
As mentioned in Section III, trailers pulled by Class 7 and 8
tractors (together considered ``tractor-trailers'') account for
approximately two-thirds of the heavy-duty sector's total
CO2 emissions and fuel consumption. Because neither trailers
nor the tractors that pull them are useful by themselves, it is the
combination of the tractor and the trailer that forms the useful
vehicle. Although trailers do not directly generate exhaust emissions
or consume fuels (except for the refrigeration units on refrigerated
trailers), their designs and operation nevertheless contribute
substantially to the CO2 emissions and diesel fuel
consumption of the tractors pulling them. See also Section I.E (1) and
(2) above.
The agencies are proposing standards for trailers specifically
designed to be drawn by Class 7 and 8 tractors when coupled to the
tractor's fifth wheel. The agencies are not proposing standards for
trailers designed to be drawn by vehicles other than tractors, and
those that are coupled to vehicles with pintle hooks or hitches instead
of a fifth wheel. These proposed standards are expressed as
CO2 and fuel consumption standards, and would apply to each
trailer with respect to the emissions and fuel consumption that would
be expected for a specific standard type of tractor pulling such a
trailer. Note that this approach is discussed in more detail later.
Nevertheless, EPA and NHTSA believe it is appropriate to establish
standards for trailers separately from tractors because they are
separately manufactured by distinct companies; the agencies are not
aware of any manufacturers that currently assemble both the finished
tractor and the trailer.
A. Summary of Trailer Consideration in Phase 1
In the Phase 1 program, the agencies did not regulate trailers, but
discussed how we might do so in the future (see 76 FR 57362). We chose
not to regulate trailers at that time, primarily because of the lack of
a proposed test procedure, as well as the technical and policy issues
at that time. The agencies also noted the large number of small
businesses in this industry, the possibility that regulations would
substantially impact these small businesses, and the agencies'
consequent obligations under the Small Business Regulatory Enforcement
Fairness Act.\202\ However, the agencies did indicate the potential
CO2 and fuel consumption benefits of including trailers in
the program and we committed to consider establishing standards for
trailers in future rulemakings.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\202\ The Regulatory Flexibility Act (RFA), as amended by the
Small Business Regulatory Enforcement Fairness Act (SBREFA),
requires agencies to account for economic impacts of all rules that
may have a significant impact on a substantial number of small
businesses and in addition contains provisions specially applicable
to EPA requiring a multi-agency pre-proposal process involving
outreach and consultation with representatives of potentially
affected small businesses. See https://www.epa.gov/rfa/ for more
information. Note that for this Phase 2 proposal, EPA has completed
a Small Business Advocacy Review panel process that included small
trailer manufacturers, as discussed in XIV.C below.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
In the Phase 1 proposal, the agencies solicited general comments on
controlling CO2 emissions and fuel consumption through
future trailer regulations (see 75 FR 74345-74351). Although we neither
proposed nor finalized trailer regulations at that time, the agencies
have considered those comments in developing this proposal. This notice
proposes the first EPA regulations covering trailer manufacturers for
CO2 emissions (or any other emissions), and the first fuel
consumption regulations by NHTSA for these manufacturers. The agencies
intend for this program to be a unified national program so that when a
trailer model complies with EPA's standards it will also comply with
NHTSA's standards.
B. The Trailer Industry
(1) Industry Characterization
The trailer industry encompasses a wide variety of trailer
applications and designs. Among these are box trailers (dry vans and
refrigerated vans of all sizes) and ``non-box'' trailers, including
platform (sometimes called ``flatbed''), tanker, container chassis,
bulk, dump, grain, and many specialized types of trailers, such as car
carriers, pole trailers, and logging trailers. Most trailers are
designed for predominant use on paved streets, roads, and highways
(called ``highway trailers'' for purposes of this proposed rule). A
relatively small number of trailers are designed for dedicated use in
logging and mining operations or for use in
[[Page 40254]]
applications that we expect would involve little or no time on paved
roadways. A more detailed description of the characteristics that
distinguish these trailers is included in Section IV.C.(5).
The trailer manufacturing industry is very competitive, and
manufacturers are highly responsive to their customers' diverse
demands. The wide range of trailer designs and features reflects the
broad variety of customer needs, chief among them typically being the
ability to maximize the amount of freight the trailer can transport.
Other design goals reflect the numerous, more specialized customer
needs.
Box trailers are the most common type of trailer and are made in
many different lengths, generally ranging from 28 feet to 53 feet.
While all have a rectangular shape, they can vary widely in basic
construction design (internal volume and weight), materials (steel,
fiberglass composites, aluminum, and wood) and the number and
configuration of axles (usually two axles closely spaced, but number
and spacing of axles can be greater). Box trailer designs may also
include additional features, such as one or more side doors, out-
swinging or roll-up rear doors, side or rear lift gates, and numerous
types of undercarriage accessories.
Non-box trailers are uniquely designed to transport a specific type
of freight. Platform trailers carry cargo that may not be easily
contained within or loaded and unloaded into a box trailer, such as
large, nonuniform equipment or machine components. Tank trailers are
often pressure-tight enclosures designed to carry liquids, gases or
bulk, dry solids and semi-solids. There are also a number of other
specialized trailers such as grain, dump, automobile hauler, livestock
trailers, construction and heavy-hauling trailers.
Chapter 1 of the Draft RIA includes a more thorough
characterization of the trailer industry. The agencies have considered
the variety of trailer designs and applications in developing the
proposed CO2 emissions and fuel consumption standards for
trailers.
(2) Historical Context for Proposed Trailer Provisions
(a) SmartWay Program
EPA's voluntary SmartWay Transport Partnership program encourages
businesses to take actions that reduce fuel consumption and
CO2 emissions while cutting costs. See Section I.A.2.f
above. SmartWay staff work with the shipping, logistics, and carrier
communities to identify low carbon strategies and technologies across
their transportation supply chains. It is a voluntary, fleet-targeted
program that provides an objective ranking of a fleet's freight
efficiency relative to its competitors. SmartWay Partners commit to
adopting fuel-saving practices and technologies relative to a baseline
year as well as tracking their progress.
EPA's SmartWay program has accelerated the availability and market
penetration of advanced, fuel efficient technologies and operational
practices. In conjunction with the SmartWay Partners Program, EPA
established a testing, verification, and designation program, the
SmartWay Technology Program, to help freight companies identify the
equipment, technologies, and strategies that save fuel and lower
emissions. SmartWay verifies the performance of aerodynamic equipment
and low rolling resistance tires and maintains a list of verified
technologies on its Web site. The trailer aerodynamic technologies
verified are grouped in bins that represent one percent, four percent,
or five percent fuel savings relative to a typical long-haul tractor-
trailer at 65-mph cruise conditions. Historically, use of verified
aerodynamic devices totaling at least five percent fuel savings, along
with verified tires, qualifies a 53-foot dry van trailer for the
``SmartWay Trailer'' designation. In 2014, EPA expanded the program to
qualify trailers as ``SmartWay Elite'' if they use verified tires and
aerodynamic equipment providing nine percent or greater fuel savings.
The 2014 updates also expanded the SmartWay-designated trailer
eligibility to include 53-foot refrigerated van trailers in addition to
53-foot dry van trailers.
The SmartWay Technology Program continues to improve the technical
quality of data that EPA and stakeholders need for verification. EPA
bases its SmartWay verifications on common industry test methods using
SmartWay-specified testing protocols. Historically, SmartWay's
aerodynamic equipment verification was performed using the SAE J1321
test procedure, which measures fuel consumption as the test vehicle
drives laps around a test track. Under SmartWay's 2014 updates, EPA
expanded its trailer designation and equipment verification programs to
allow additional testing options. The updates included a new, more
stringent 2014 track test protocol based on SAE's 2012 update to its
SAE J1321 test method,\203\ as well as protocols for wind tunnel,
coastdown, and possibly computational fluid dynamics (CFD) approaches.
These new protocols are based on stakeholder input, the latest industry
standards (i.e., 2012 versions of the SAE fuel consumption and wind
tunnel test \204\ methods), EPA's own testing and research, and lessons
learned from years of implementing technology verification programs.
Wind tunnel, coastdown, and CFD testing produce values for aerodynamic
drag improvements in terms of coefficient of drag (CD),
which is then related to projected fuel savings using a mathematical
curve.\205\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\203\ SAE International, Fuel Consumption Test Procedure--Type
II. SAE Standard J1321. Revised 2012-02-06. Available at: https://standards.sae.org/j1321_201202/.
\204\ SAE International. Wind Tunnel Test Procedure for Trucks
and Buses. SAE Standard J1252. Revised 2012-07-16. Available at:
https://standards.sae.org/j1252_201207/.
\205\ McCallen, R., et al. Progress in Reducing Aerodynamic Drag
for Higher Efficiency of Heavy Duty Trucks (Class 7-8). SAE
Technical Paper. 1999-01-2238.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
SmartWay verifies tires based on test data submitted by tire
manufacturers demonstrating the coefficient of rolling resistance
(CRR) of their tires using either the SAE J1269 or ISO 28580
test methods. These verified tires have rolling resistance targets for
each axle position on the tractor-trailer. SmartWay-verified trailer
tires achieve a CRR of 5.1 kg/metric ton or less on the
ISO28580 test method. An operator who replaces the trailer tires with
SmartWay-verified tires can expect fuel consumption savings of one
percent or more at a 65-mph cruise. Operators who apply SmartWay-
verified tires on both the trailer and tractor can achieve three
percent fuel consumption savings at 65-mph.
Over the last decade, SmartWay partners have demonstrated
measureable fuel consumption benefits by adding aerodynamic features
and low rolling resistance tires to their 53-foot dry van trailers. To
date, SmartWay has verified over 70 technologies, including nine
packages from five manufacturers that have received the Elite
designation. The SmartWay Transport program has worked with over 3,000
partners, the majority of which are trucking fleets, and broadly
throughout the supply-chain industry, since 2004. These relationships,
combined with the Technology Program's extensive involvement in the HD
vehicle technology industry, have provided EPA with significant
experience in freight fuel efficiency. Furthermore, the more than 10-
year duration of the voluntary SmartWay Transport Partnership has
resulted in significant fleet and manufacturer experience with
innovating and deploying technologies
[[Page 40255]]
that reduce CO2 emissions and fuel consumption.
(b) California Tractor-Trailer Greenhouse Gas Regulation
The state of California passed the Global Warming Solutions Act of
2006 (Assembly Bill 32, or AB32), enacting the state's 2020 greenhouse
gas emissions reduction goal into law. Pursuant to this Act, the
California Air Resource Board (CARB) was required to begin developing
early actions to reduce GHG emissions. As a part of a larger effort to
comply with AB32, the California Air Resource Board issued a regulation
entitled ``Heavy-Duty Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Regulation'' in
December 2008.
This regulation reduces GHG emissions by requiring improvement in
the efficiency of heavy-duty tractors and 53 foot or longer dry and
refrigerated box trailers that operate in California.\206\ The program
is being phased in between 2010 and 2020. Small fleets have been
allowed special compliance opportunities to phase in the retrofits of
their existing trailer fleets through 2017. The regulation requires
affected trailer fleet owners to either use SmartWay-verified trailers
or to retrofit trailers with SmartWay-verified technologies. The
efficiency improvements are achieved through the use of aerodynamic
equipment and low rolling resistance tires on both the tractor and
trailer. EPA has granted a waiver for this California program.\207\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\206\ Recently, in December 2013, ARB adopted regulations that
establish its own parallel Phase 1 program with standards consistent
with the EPA Phase 1 tractor standards. On December 5, 2014
California's Office of Administrative Law approved ARB's adoption of
the Phase 1 standards, with an effective date of December 5, 2014.
\207\ See EPA's waiver of CARB's heavy-duty tractor-trailer
greenhouse gas regulation applicable to new 2011 through 2013 model
year Class 8 tractors equipped with integrated sleeper berths
(sleeper-cab tractors) and 2011 and subsequent model year dry-can
and refrigerated-van trailers that are pulled by such tractors on
California highways at 79 FR 46256 (August 7, 2014).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
(c) NHTSA Safety-Related Regulations for Trailers and Tires
NHTSA regulates new trailer safety through regulations. Table IV-1
lists the current regulations in place related to trailers. Trailer
manufacturers will continue to be required to meet current safety
regulations for the trailers they produce. We welcome any comments on
additional regulations that are not included and particularly those
that may be incompatible with the regulations outlined in this
proposal.
FMVSS Nos. 223 and 224 \208\ require installation of rear guard
protection on trailers. The definition of rear extremity of the trailer
in 223 limits installation of rear fairings to a specified zone behind
the trailer. The agencies request comment on any issues associated with
installing potential boat tails or other rear aerodynamic fairings that
would be more effective than current designs, given the current
definition of trailer rear extremity in FMVSS 223.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\208\ 49 CFR 571.223, 224.
Table IV--1 Current NHTSA Statutes and Regulations Related to Trailers
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Reference Title
------------------------------------------------------------------------
49 CFR 565............................. Vehicle Identification Number
(VIN) Requirements.
49 CFR 566............................. Manufacturer Identification.
49 CFR 567............................. Certification.
49 CFR 568............................. Vehicles Manufactured in Two or
More Stages.
49 CFR 569............................. Regrooved Tires.
49 CFR 571............................. Federal Motor Vehicle Safety
Standards.
49 CFR 573............................. Defect and Noncompliance
Responsibility and Reports.
49 CFR 574............................. Tire Identification and
Recordkeeping.
49 CFR 575............................. Consumer Information.
49 CFR 576............................. Record Retention.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
(d) Additional DOT Regulations Related to Trailers
In addition to NHTSA's regulations, DOT's Federal Highway
Administration (FHWA) regulates the weight and dimensions of motor
vehicles on the National Network.\209\ FHWA's regulations limit states
from setting truck size and weight limits beyond certain ranges for
vehicles used on the National Network. Specifically, vehicle weight and
truck tractor-semitrailer length and width are limited by FHWA.\210\
EPA and NHTSA do not anticipate any conflicts between FHWA's
regulations and those proposed in this rulemaking.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\209\ 23 CFR 658.9.
\210\ 23 CFR part 658.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
(3) Agencies' Outreach in Developing This Proposal
In developing this proposed rule, EPA and NHTSA staff met and
consulted with a wide range of organizations that have an interest in
trailer regulations. Staff from both agencies met representatives of
the Truck Trailer Manufacturers Association, the National Trailer
Dealers Association, and the American Trucking Association, including
their Fuel Efficiency Advisory Committee and their Technology and
Maintenance Council. We also met with and visited the facilities of
several individual trailer manufacturers, trailer aerodynamic device
manufacturing companies, and trailer tire manufacturers, as well as
visited an aerodynamic wind tunnel test facility and two independent
tire testing facilities. The agencies consulted with representatives
from California Air Resources Board, the International Council on Clean
Transportation, the North American Council for Freight Efficiency, and
several environmental NGOs.
In addition to these informal meetings, and as noted above, EPA
also conducted several outreach meetings with representatives from
small business trailer manufacturers as required under section 609(b)
of the Regulatory Flexibility Act (RFA) and amended by the Small
Business Regulatory Enforcement Fairness Act of 1996 (SBREFA). EPA
convened a Small Business Advocacy Review (SBAR) Panel, and additional
information regarding the findings and recommendations of the Panel are
available in Section XIV below and in the Panel's final report.\211\
EPA worked with NHTSA to propose flexibilities in response to EPA's
SBAR Panel (as outlined in Section IV. F(6)(f) with more detail
provided in Chapter 12 of the draft RIA). We welcome comments from all
entities and the public to all aspects of this proposal.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\211\ Final Report of the Small Business Advocacy Review Panel
on EPA's Planned Proposed Rule: Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Fuel
Efficiency Standards for Medium- and Heavy-Duty Engines and
Vehicles: Phase 2, January 15, 2015.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
C. Proposed Phase 2 Trailer Standards
This proposed rule proposes, for the first time, a set of
CO2 emission and fuel consumption standards for
manufacturers of new trailers that would phase in over a period of nine
years and continue to reduce CO2 emissions and fuel
consumption in the years to follow. The proposed standards are
expressed as overall CO2 emissions and fuel consumption
performance standards considering the trailer as an integral part of
the tractor-trailer vehicle.
The agencies are proposing trailer standards that we believe well
implement our respective statutory obligations. The agencies believe
that a proposed set of standards with similar stringencies, but less
lead-time (referred to as ``Alternative 4'' and discussed in more
detail later) has the potential to be the maximum feasible alternative
within the meaning of section 32902 (k) of EISA, and appropriate under
EPA's CAA authority (sections 202 (a)(1) and (2)). However, based on
the evidence
[[Page 40256]]
currently before us, EPA and NHTSA have outstanding questions regarding
relative risks and benefits of Alternative 4 due to the timeframe
envisioned by that alternative. The proposed alternative (referred to
as ``Alternative 3'' and discussed in more detail later) is generally
designed to achieve the levels of fuel consumption and GHG reduction
that Alternative 4 would achieve, but with several years of additional
lead-time. Put another way, the Alternative 3 standards would result in
the same stringency as the Alternative 4 standards, but several years
later, meaning that manufacturers could, in theory apply new technology
at a more gradual pace and with greater flexibility. Additional lead-
time will also provide for a more gradual implementation of full
compliance program, which could be especially helpful for this newly-
regulated trailer industry. It is possible that the agencies could
adopt, in full or in part, stringencies from Alternative 4 in the final
rule. The agencies seek comment on the lead-time and market penetration
in these alternatives.
The agencies are not proposing standards for CO2
emissions and fuel consumption from the transport refrigeration units
(TRUs) used on refrigerated box trailers. Additionally, EPA is not
proposing standards for hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) emissions from TRUs.
See Section IV.C.(4)
It is worth noting that the proposed standards for box trailers are
based in part on the expectation that the proposed program would allow
emissions averaging. However, as discussed in Section IV.F. below,
given the specific structure and competitive nature of the trailer
industry, we request comment on the advantages and disadvantages of
implementing the proposed standards without an averaging program.
Commenters addressing the stringency of the proposed standards are
encouraged to address stringency in the context of compliance programs
with and without averaging.
(1) Trailer Designs Covered by This Proposed Rule
As described previously, the trailer industry produces many
different trailer designs for many different applications. The agencies
are proposing standards for a majority of these trailers. Note that
these proposed regulations apply to trailers designed for being drawn
by a tractor when coupled to the tractor's fifth wheel. As described in
detail in Section IV.C below, the agencies are proposing standards that
would phase in between MY 2018 and 2027; the NHTSA standards would be
voluntary until MY 2021. The proposed standards would apply to most
types of trailers. For most box trailers, these standards would be
based on the use of various technologies to improve aerodynamic
performance, and on improved tire efficiency through low rolling
resistance tires and use of automatic tire inflation (ATI) systems. As
discussed below, the agencies have identified some trailers with
characteristics that limit the aerodynamics that can be applied, and
are proposing reduced the stringencies for those trailer types. As
described in Sections IV.D.(1)(d) and (2)(d) below, although
manufacturers can reduce trailer weight to reduce fuel costs by
reducing trailer weight, these standards are not predicated on weight
reduction for the industry.
The most comprehensive set of proposed requirements would apply to
long box trailers, which include refrigerated and non-refrigerated
(dry) vans. Long box trailers are the largest trailer category and are
typically paired with high roof cab tractors that have high annual
vehicle miles traveled (VMT) and high average speeds, and therefore
offer the greatest potential for CO2 and fuel consumption
reductions. Many of the aerodynamic and tire technologies considered
for long box trailers in this proposal are similar to those used in
EPA's SmartWay program and required by California's Heavy-Duty
Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Regulation. Many manufacturers and
operators of box trailers have experience with these CO2-
and fuel consumption-reducing technologies. In addition to SmartWay
partners and those fleets affected by the California regulation, many
operators also seek such technologies in response to high fuel prices
and the prospect of improved fuel efficiency. As a result, more data
about the performance of these technologies exist for long box trailers
than for other trailer types. Short box vans do not have the benefit of
programs such as SmartWay to provide an incentive for development of
and a reliable evaluation and promotion of CO2- and fuel
consumption-reducing technologies for their trailers. In addition,
short box trailers are more frequently used in short-haul and urban
operations, which may limit the potential effectiveness of these
technologies. As such, EPA is proposing less stringent requirements for
manufacturers of short box trailers.
Some trailer designs include features that can affect the
practicality or the effectiveness of devices that manufacturers may
consider to lower their CO2 emissions and fuel consumption.
We are proposing to recognize box trailers that are restricted from
using aerodynamic devices in one location on the trailer as ``partial-
aero'' box trailers.\212\ The proposed standards for these trailers are
based on the proposed standards for full-aero box-trailers, but would
be less stringent than when the program is fully phased in.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\212\ Examples of types of work-performing components,
equipment, or designs that the agencies might consider as warranting
recognition as partial-aero or non-aero trailers include side or end
lift gates, belly boxes, pull-out platforms or steps for side door
access, and drop-deck designs. See 40 CFR 1037.107 and 49 CFR
535.5(e).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
We propose that box trailers that have work-performing devices in
two locations such that they inhibit the use of all practical
aerodynamic devices be considered ``non-aero'' box trailers in this
proposal. The proposed standards for non-aero box trailers are
predicated on the use of tire technologies--lower rolling resistance
tires and ATI. We are proposing similar standards for non-box trailers
(including applications such as dump trailers and agricultural trailers
that are designed to be used both on and off the highway).
We are proposing to completely exclude several types of trailers
from this trailer program. These excluded trailers would include those
designed for dedicated in-field operations related to logging and
mining. In addition, we are proposing to exclude heavy-haul trailers
and trailers the primary function of which is performed while they are
stationary. For all of these excluded trailers, manufacturers would not
have any regulatory requirements under this program, and would not be
subject to the proposed trailer compliance requirements. We seek
comment on the appropriateness of excluding these types of trailers
from the proposed trailer program and whether other trailer designs
should be excluded. Section IV. C. (5) discusses these trailer types we
propose to exclude and the physical characteristics that would define
these trailers.
In summary, the agencies are proposing separate standards for ten
trailer subcategories:
--Long box (longer than 50 feet \213\) dry vans
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\213\ Most long trailers are 53 feet in length; we are proposing
a cut-point of 50 feet to avoid an unintended incentive for an OEM
to slightly shorten a trailer design in order to avoid the new
regulatory requirements.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
--Long box (longer than 50 feet) refrigerated vans
--Short box (50 feet and shorter) dry vans
--Short box (50 feet and shorter) refrigerated vans
--Partial-aero long box dry vans
--Partial-aero long box refrigerated vans
--Partial-aero short box dry vans
[[Page 40257]]
--Partial-aero short box refrigerated vans
--Non-aero box vans (all lengths of dry and refrigerated vans)
--Non-box trailers (tanker, platform, container chassis, and all other
types of highway trailers that are not box trailers)
As discussed in the next section, partial-aero box trailers would
have the same standards as their corresponding full-aero trailers in
the early phase-in years, and would have separate, less stringent
standards as the program is fully implemented. Section IV. C. (5)
introduces these proposed partial-aero trailer standards and Section
IV. D. describes the technologies that could be applied to meet these
proposed standards.
(2) Proposed Fuel Consumption and CO2 Standards
As described in previously, it is the combination of the tractor
and the trailer that form the useful vehicle, and trailer designs
substantially affect the CO2 emissions and diesel fuel
consumption of the tractors pulling them. Note that although the
agencies are proposing new CO2 and fuel consumption
standards for trailers separately from tractors, we set the numerical
level of the trailer standards (see Section IV.D below) in relation to
``standard'' reference tractors in recognition of their
interrelatedness. In other words, the regulatory standards refer to the
simulated emissions and fuel consumption of a standard tractor pulling
the trailer being certified.
The agencies project that these proposed standards, when fully
implemented in MY (model year) 2027, would achieve fuel consumption and
CO2 emissions reductions of three to eight percent,
depending on trailer subcategory. These projected reductions assume a
degree of technology adoption into the future absent the proposed
program and are evaluated on a weighted drive cycle (see Section IV. D.
(3) . We expect that the MY 2027 standards would be met with high-
performing aerodynamic and tire technologies largely available in the
marketplace today. With a lead-time of more than 10 years, the agencies
believe that both trailer construction and bolt-on CO2- and
fuel consumption-reducing technologies will advance well beyond the
performance of their current counterparts that exist today. A
description of technologies that the agencies considered for this
proposal is provided in Section IV. D.
The agencies designed this proposed trailer program to ensure a
gradual progression of both stringency and compliance requirements in
order to limit the impact on this newly-regulated industry. The
agencies are proposing progressively more stringent standards in three-
year stages leading up to the MY 2027.\214\ The agencies are proposing
several options to reduce compliance burden (see Section IV. F.) in the
early years as the industry gains experience with the program. EPA is
proposing to initiate its program in 2018 with modest standards for
long box dry and refrigerated vans that can be met with common
SmartWay-verified aerodynamic and tire technologies. In this early
stage, we expect that manufacturers of the other trailer subcategories
would meet those standards by using tire technologies only. Standards
that we propose for the next stages, which we propose to begin in MY
2021, MY 2024, and MY 2027, would gradually increase in stringency for
each subcategory, including the introduction of standards for shorter
box vans that we expect would be met by applying both aerodynamic and
tire technologies. NHTSA's regulations would be voluntary until MY 2021
as described in Section IV. C. (3).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\214\ These stages are consistent with NHTSA's stability
requirements under EISA.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table IV-2 below presents the CO2 and fuel consumption
phase-in standards, beginning in MY 2018 that the agencies are
proposing for trailers. The standards are expressed in grams of
CO2 per ton-mile and gallons of fuel per 1,000 ton-miles to
reflect the load-carrying capacity of the trailers. Partial-aero
trailers would be subject to the same standards as their corresponding
``full aero'' trailers for MY 2018 through MY 2026. In MY 2027 and the
years to follow, partial-aero trailers would continue to meet the
standards for MY 2024.
The agencies are not proposing CO2 or fuel consumption
standards predicated on aerodynamic improvements for non-box trailers
or non-aero box vans at any stage of this proposed program. Instead, we
are proposing design standards that would require manufacturers of
these trailers to adopt specific tire technologies and thus to comply
without aerodynamic devices. We believe that this approach would
significantly limit the compliance burden for these manufacturers and
request comment on this provision.\215\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\215\ The agencies are not proposing provisions to allow
averaging for non-box trailers, non-aero box trailers, or partial-
aero box trailers, and this reduced flexibility would likely have
the effect of requiring compliant tire technologies to be used.
Table IV-2--Proposed Trailer CO2 and Fuel Consumption Standards for Box Trailers
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Subcategory Dry van Refrigerated van
Model year ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Length Long Short Long Short
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2018-2020..................... EPA Standard.... 83 144 84 147
(CO2 Grams per
Ton-Mile).
Voluntary NHTSA 8.1532 14.1454 8.2515 14.4401
Standard.
(Gallons per
1,000 Ton-Mile).
2021-2023..................... EPA Standard.... 81 142 82 146
(CO2 Grams per
Ton-Mile).
NHTSA Standard.. 7.9568 13.9489 8.0550 14.3418
(Gallons per
1,000 Ton-Mile).
2024-2026..................... EPA Standard.... 79 141 81 144
(CO2 Grams per
Ton-Mile).
NHTSA Standard.. 7.7603 13.8507 7.9568 14.1454
(Gallons per
1,000 Ton-Mile).
2027 +........................ EPA Standard.... 77 140 80 144
(CO2 Grams per
Ton-Mile).
NHTSA Standard.. 7.5639 13.7525 7.8585 14.1454
(Gallons per
1,000 Ton-Mile).
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
[[Page 40258]]
Differences in the numerical values of these standards among
trailer subcategories are due to differences in the tractor-trailer
characteristics, as well as differences in the default payloads, in the
vehicle simulation model we used to develop the proposed standards (as
described in Section IV. D. (3) (a) below). Lower numerical values in
Table IV-2 do not necessarily indicate more stringent standards. For
instance, the proposed standards for dry and refrigerated vans of the
same length have the same stringency through MY 2026, but the standards
recognize differences in trailer weight and aerodynamic performance due
to the TRU on refrigerated vans. Trailers of the same type but
different length differ in weight as well as in the number of axles
(and tires), tractor type, payload and aerodynamic performance. Section
IV. D. and Chapter 2.10 of the draft RIA provide more details on the
characteristics of the tractor-trailer vehicles, with various
technologies, that are the basis for these standards.
In developing the proposed standards for trailers, the agencies
evaluated the current level of CO2 emissions and fuel
consumption, the types and availability of technologies that could be
applied to reduce CO2 and fuel consumption, and the current
adoption rates of these technologies. Additionally, we considered the
necessary lead-time and associated costs to the industry to meet these
standards, as well as the fuel savings to the consumer and magnitude of
CO2 and fuel savings that we project would be achieved as a
result of these proposed standards. As discussed in more detail later
in this preamble and in Chapter 2.10 of the draft RIA, the analyses of
trailer aerodynamic and tire technologies that the agencies have
conducted appear to show that these proposed standards would be the
maximum feasible and appropriate in the lead-time provided under each
agency's respective statutory authorities. We ask that any comments
related to stringency include data whenever possible indicating the
potential effectiveness and cost of adding such devices to these
vehicles.
The agencies request comment on all aspects of these proposed
standards, including trailers to be covered and the proposed 50-foot
demarcation between ``long'' and ``short'' box vans, the proposed
phase-in schedule, and the stringency of the standards in relation to
their cost, CO2 and fuel consumption reductions, and on the
proposed compliance provisions, as discussed in Section IV. F.
In addition to these proposed trailer standards, the agencies
considered standards both less stringent and more stringent than the
proposed standards. We specifically request comment on a set of
accelerated standards that we considered, as presented in Section IV.
E. This set of standards is predicated on performance and penetration
rates of the same technologies as the proposed standards, but would
reach full implementation three years sooner.
(3) Lead-Time Considerations
As mentioned earlier, although the agencies did not include
standards for trailers in Phase 1, box trailer manufacturers have been
gaining experience with CO2- and fuel consumption-reducing
technologies over the past several years, and the agencies expect that
trend to continue, due in part to EPA's SmartWay program and
California's Tractor-Trailer Greenhouse Gas Regulation. Most
manufacturers of long box trailers have some experience installing
these aerodynamic and tire technologies for customers. This experience
impacts how much lead-time is necessary from a technological
perspective. EPA is proposing CO2 emission standards for
long box trailers for MY 2018 that represent stringency levels similar
to those used for SmartWay verification and required for the California
regulation, and thus could be met by adopting off-the-shelf aerodynamic
and tire technologies available today. The NHTSA program from 2018
through 2020 would be voluntary.
Manufacturers of trailers other than 53-foot box vans do not have
the benefit of programs such as SmartWay to provide a reliable
evaluation and promotion of these technologies for their trailers and
therefore have less experience with these technologies. As such, EPA is
proposing less stringent requirements for manufacturers of other
highway trailer subcategories beginning in MY 2018. We expect these
manufacturers of short box trailers would adopt some aerodynamic and
tire technologies, and manufacturers of other trailers would adopt tire
technologies only, as a means of achieving the proposed standards. Some
manufacturers of trailers other than long boxes may not yet have direct
experience with these technologies, but the technologies they would
need are fairly simple and can be incorporated into trailer production
lines without significant process changes. Also, the NHTSA program for
these trailers would be voluntary until MY 2021.
The agencies believe that the burdens of installing and marketing
these technologies would not be limiting factors in determining
necessary lead-time for manufacturers of these trailers. Instead, we
expect that the proposed first-time compliance and, in some cases,
performance testing requirements, would be the more challenging
obstacles for this newly regulated industry. For these reasons, we are
proposing that these standards phase in over a period of nine years,
with flexibilities that would minimize the compliance and testing
burdens in the early years of the proposed program (see Section IV.
F.).
As mentioned previously, EPA is proposing modest standards and
several compliance options that would allow it to begin its program for
MY 2018. However, EISA requires four model years of lead-time for fuel
consumption standards, regardless of the stringency level or
availability of flexibilities. Therefore, NHTSA's proposed fuel
consumption requirements would not become mandatory until MY 2021.
Prior to MY 2021, trailer manufacturers could voluntarily participate
in NHTSA's program, noting that once they made such a choice, they
would need to stay in the program for all succeeding model years.\216\
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\216\ NHTSA adopted a similar voluntary approach in the first
years of Phase 1 (see 76 FR 57106).
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The agencies believe that the expected period of seven years or
more between the issuing of the final rules and full implementation of
the program would provide sufficient lead-time for all affected trailer
manufacturers to adopt CO2- and fuel consumption-reducing
technologies or design trailers to meet the proposed standards.
(4) Non-CO2 GHG Emissions from Trailers
In addition to the impact of trailer design on the CO2
emissions of tractor-trailer vehicles, the agencies recognize that
refrigerated trailers can also be a source of emissions of HFCs.
Specifically, HFC refrigerants that are used in transport refrigeration
units (TRUs) have the potential to leak into the atmosphere. We do not
currently believe that HFC leakage is likely to become a major problem
in the near future, and we are not proposing provisions addressing
refrigerant leakage of trailer-related HFCs in this proposed
rulemaking. TRUs differ from the other source categories where EPA has
adopted (or proposed) to apply HFC leakage requirements (i.e., air
conditioning). We believe trailer owners have a strong incentive to
limit refrigerant leakage in order to maintain the operability of the
trailer's refrigeration unit and avoid financial liability for damage
to perishable freight due to a failure to maintain the agreed-
[[Page 40259]]
upon temperature and humidity conditions. In addition, refrigerated van
units represent a relatively small fraction of new trailers.
Nevertheless, we request comment on this issue, including any data on
typical TRU charge capacity, the frequency of HFC refrigerant leakage
from these units across the fleet, the magnitude of unaddressed leakage
from individual units, and how potential EPA regulations might address
this leakage issue.
(5) Exclusions and Less-Stringent Standards
All trailers built before January 1, 2018 are excluded from the
Phase 2 trailer program, and from 40 CFR part 1037 and 49 CFR part 535
in general (see 40 CFR 1037.5(g) and 49 CFR 535.3(e)). Furthermore, the
proposed regulations do not apply to trailers designed to be drawn by
vehicles other than tractors, and those that are coupled to vehicles
with pintle hooks or hitches instead of a fifth wheel. As stated
previously, we are proposing that non-box trailers that are designed
for dedicated use with in-field operations related to logging and
mining be completely excluded from this Phase 2 trailer program. The
agencies believe that the operational capabilities of trailers designed
for these purposes could be compromised by the use of aerodynamic
devices or tires with lower rolling resistance. Additionally, the
agencies are proposing to exclude trailers designed for heavy-haul
applications and those that are not intended for highway use, as
follows:
--Trailers shorter than 35 feet in length with three axles, and all
trailers with four or more axles (including any lift axles)
--Trailers designed to operate at low speeds such that they are
unsuitable for normal highway operation
--Trailers designed to perform their primary function while stationary
--Trailers intended for temporary or permanent residence, office space,
or other work space, such as campers, mobile homes, and carnival
trailers
--Trailers designed to transport livestock
--Incomplete trailers that are sold to a secondary manufacturer for
modification to serve a purpose other than transporting freight, such
as for offices or storage \217\
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\217\ Secondary manufacturers who purchase incomplete trailers
and complete their construction to serve as trailers are subject to
the requirements of 40 CFR 1037.620.
Where the criteria for exclusion identified above may be unclear
for specific trailer models, manufacturers would be encouraged to ask
the agencies to make a determination before production begins. The
agencies seek comments on these and any other trailer characteristics
that might make the trailers incompatible with highway use or would
restrict their typical operating speeds.
Because the agencies are proposing that these trailers be excluded
from the program, we are not proposing to require manufacturers to
report to the agencies about these excluded trailers. We seek comments
on whether, in lieu of the exclusion of trailers from the program, the
agencies should instead exempt these trailers from the standards, but
still require reporting to the agencies in order to verify that a
manufacturer qualifies for an exemption. In that case, exempt trailers
would have some regulatory requirements (e.g., reporting); again,
excluded trailers would have no regulatory requirements under this
proposal. All other trailers would remain covered by the proposed
standards.
As described earlier, the proposed program is based on the
expectation that manufacturers would be able to apply aerodynamic
devices and tire technologies to the vast majority of box trailers, and
these standards would be relatively stringent. We propose to categorize
trailers with functional components or work-performing equipment, and
trailers with certain design elements, that could partially interfere
with the installation or the effectiveness of some aerodynamic
technologies, as ``partial-aero'' box trailers. For example, some
trailer equipment by their placement or their need for operator access
might not be compatible with current designs of trailer skirts, but a
boat tail could be effective on that trailer in the early years of the
program. Similarly, a rear lift gate or roll-up rear door might not be
compatible with a current boat tail design, but skirts could be
effective. The proposed requirements for these trailers would the same
as their full-aero counterparts until MY 2027, at which time they would
continue to be subject to the MY 2024 standards. See 40 CFR 1037.107.
For trailers for which no aerodynamic devices are practical, the
agencies are proposing design standards requiring LRR tires and ATI
systems. Trailers for which neither skirt/under-body devices nor rear-
end devices would be likely to be feasible fall into two categories:
non-box trailers and non-aero box trailers. We believe that there is
limited availability of aerodynamic technologies for non-box trailers
(for example, platform (flatbed) trailers, tank trailers, and container
chassis trailers). Also, for container chassis trailers, operational
considerations, such as stacking of the chassis trailers, impede
introduction of aerodynamic technologies. In addition, manufacturers of
these trailer types have little or no experience with aerodynamic
technologies designed for their products. Non-aero box trailers,
defined as those with equipment or design features that would preclude
both skirt/under-body and rear-end aerodynamic technologies (e.g., a
trailer with both a pull-out platform for side access and a rear lift
gate), would be subject to the same tire-only design standards as would
non-box trailers, based exclusively on the performance of tire and ATI
technologies.\218\
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\218\ The agencies are not aware of work-performing equipment
that would prevent the use of gap-reducing trailer devices on dry
vans of any length; thus dry vans with side and rear equipment could
qualify as ``non-aero'' trailers, even if the manufacturer could
install a gap-reducing device.
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We recognize that the shortest short box vans (i.e., less than 35
feet) are often pulled in tandem. Since these trailers make up the
majority of trailers in the short box van subcategories, we are not
proposing standards for short box dry and refrigerated vans based on
the use of rear devices. Thus, work-performing features on the rear of
the trailer (e.g., lift gates) would not impact a trailer's ability to
meet the full-aero short-box trailer standards. As a result, we are
proposing that all short box vans only be categorized as partial-aero
vans if they have work-performing side features (e.g., belly boxes). We
expect that partial-aero short dry van trailers would be able to adopt
front-side devices that would achieve the reduced standards.
Furthermore, some short box trailers that are not operated in tandem,
such as 40- or 48-foot trailers, could also be able to adopt rear-side
devices and achieve even greater reductions.
Refrigerated short box vans are a special case in that they have
TRUs that limit the ability to apply aerodynamic technologies to the
front side of the trailers. Because of this, we are proposing to
classify the shortest refrigerated box vans (shorter than 35 feet) as
non-aero trailers if they are designed with work-performing side
features. Since these trailers may be pulled in tandem and since they
cannot adopt front-side aerodynamic devices, we propose that they meet
standards predicated on tire technologies only. Short box refrigerated
trailers 35 feet and longer would only qualify for non-aero standards
if they have work-
[[Page 40260]]
performing devices on both the side and rear of the trailer. See 40 CFR
1037.107.
We request comment on these proposed provisions for excluding some
trailers from the program, including speed restrictions and physical
characteristics that would generally make them incompatible for highway
use. We also request comment on the proposed approach of applying less-
stringent standards to non-box, non-aero box, and partial-aero box
trailers.
(6) In-Use Standards
Consistent with Section 202(a)(1) of the CAA, EPA is proposing that
the emissions standards apply for the useful life of the trailers.
NHTSA also proposes to adopt EPA's useful life requirements for
trailers to ensure manufacturers consider in the design process the
need for fuel efficiency standards to apply for the same duration and
mileage as EPA standards. Aerodynamic devices available today,
including trailer skirts, rear fairings, under-body devices, and gap-
reducing fairings, are designed to maintain their physical integrity
for the life of the trailer. In the absence of failures like
detachment, breakage, or misalignment, we expect that the aerodynamic
performance of the devices will not degrade appreciably over time and
that the projected CO2 and fuel consumption reductions will
continue for the life of the vehicle with no special maintenance
requirements. Because of this, EPA does not see a benefit to
establishing separate standards that would apply in-use for trailers.
EPA and NHTSA are proposing a regulatory useful life value for trailers
of 10 years, and thus the certification standards would apply in-use
for that period of time.\219\ See Section IV. F. (5) (a) for a
discussion of other factors related to trailer useful life.
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\219\ EPA may perform in-use testing of any vehicle subject to
the standards of this part, including trailers. For example, we may
test trailers to verify drag areas or other GEM inputs.
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D. Feasibility of the Proposed Trailer Standards
As discussed below, the agencies' initial determination, subject to
consideration of public comment, is that the standards presented in the
Section IV.C.2, are the maximum feasible and appropriate under the
agencies' respective authorities, considering lead time, cost, and
other factors. We summarize our analyses in this section, and describe
them in more detail in the Draft RIA (Chapter 2.10).
Our analysis of the feasibility of the proposed CO2 and
fuel consumption standards is based on technology cost and
effectiveness values collected from several sources. Our assessment of
the proposed trailer program is based on information from:
--Southwest Research Institute evaluation of heavy-duty vehicle fuel
efficiency and costs for NHTSA,\220\
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\220\ Reinhart, T.E. (June 2015). Commercial Medium- and Heavy-
Duty Truck Fuel Efficiency Technology Study--Report #1. (Report No.
DOT HS 812 146). Washington, DC: National Highway Traffic Safety
Administration.
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--2010 National Academy of Sciences report of Technologies and
Approaches to Reducing the Fuel Consumption of Medium- and Heavy-Duty
Vehicles,\221\
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\221\ Committee to Assess Fuel Economy Technologies for Medium-
and Heavy-Duty Vehicles; National Research Council; Transportation
Research Board (2010). Technologies and Approaches to Reducing the
Fuel Consumption of Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicles. (``The NAS
Report'') Washington, DC, The National Academies Press. Available
electronically from the National Academy Press Web site at https://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=12845.
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--TIAX's assessment of technologies to support the NAS panel
report,\222\
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\222\ TIAX, LLC. ``Assessment of Fuel Economy Technologies for
Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicles,'' Final Report to National Academy
of Sciences, November 19, 2009.
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--The analysis conducted by the Northeast States Center for a Clean Air
Future, International Council on Clean Transportation, Southwest
Research Institute and TIAX for reducing fuel consumption of heavy-duty
long haul combination tractors (the NESCCAF/ICCT study),\223\
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\223\ NESCCAF, ICCT, Southwest Research Institute, and TIAX.
Reducing Heavy-Duty Long Haul Combination Truck Fuel Consumption and
CO2 Emissions. October 2009.
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--The technology cost analysis conducted by ICF for EPA,\224\ and
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\224\ ICF International. ``Investigation of Costs for Strategies
to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions for Heavy-Duty On-Road
Vehicles.'' July 2010. Docket Number EPA-HQ-OAR-2010-0162-0283.
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--Testing conducted by EPA.
As an initial step in our analysis, we identified the extent to
which fuel consumption- and CO2-reducing technologies are in
use today.
The technologies include those that reduce aerodynamic drag at the
front, back, and underside of trailers, tires with lower rolling
resistance, tire inflation technologies, and weight reduction through
component substitution. It should be noted that the agencies need not
and did not attempt to predict the exact future pathway of the
industry's response to the new standards, but rather demonstrated one
example of how compliance could reasonably occur, taking into account
cost of the standards (including costs of compliance testing and
certification), and needed lead time. We are proposing that full-aero
box trailer manufacturers have additional flexibility in meeting the
standards through averaging. The less complex standards proposed for
partial- and non-aero box and non-box trailers would still provide a
degree of technology choices that would meet their standards.
For our feasibility analysis, we identified a set of technologies
to represent the range of those likely to be used in the time frame of
the rule. We then combined these technologies into packages of
increasing effectiveness in reducing CO2 and fuel
consumption and projected reasonable rates at which the evaluated
technologies and packages could be adopted across the trailer industry.
More details regarding our analysis can be found in Chapter 2.10.4.1 of
the draft RIA.
The agencies developed the proposed CO2 and fuel
consumption standards for each stage of the program by combining the
projected effectiveness of trailer technologies and the projected
adoption rates for each trailer type. We evaluated these standards with
respect to the cost of these technologies, the emission reductions and
fuel consumption improvements achieved, and the lead-time needed to
deploy the technology at a given adoption rate.
Unlike the other sectors covered by this Phase 2 rulemaking,
trailer manufacturers do not have experience certifying under the Phase
1 program. Moreover, a large fraction of the trailer industry is
composed of small businesses and very few of the largest trailer
manufacturers have the same resources available as manufacturers in the
other heavy-duty sectors. The standards have been developed with this
in mind, and we are confident the proposed standards can be achieved by
manufacturers who lack prior experience implementing such standards.
(1) Available Technologies
Trailer manufacturers can design a trailer to reduce fuel
consumption and CO2 emissions by addressing the trailer's
aerodynamic drag, tire rolling resistance and weight. In this section
we outline the general trailer technologies that the agencies
considered in evaluating the feasibility of the proposed standards.
(a) Aerodynamic Drag Reduction
Historically, the primary goal when designing the shape of box
trailers has been to maximize usable internal cargo volume, while
complying with regulatory size limits and minimizing construction
costs. This led to standard box trailers being rectangular. This basic
shape creates significant aerodynamic
[[Page 40261]]
drag and makes box trailers strong candidates for aerodynamic
improvements. Current bolt-on aerodynamic technologies for box trailers
are designed to create a smooth transition of airflow from the tractor,
around the trailer, and beyond the trailer.
Table IV-3 lists general aerodynamic technologies that the EPA
SmartWay program has evaluated for use on box trailers and a
description of their intended impact. Several versions of each of these
technologies are commercially available and have seen increased
adoption over the past decade. Performance of these devices varies
based on their design, their location and orientation on the trailer,
and the vehicle speed. More information regarding the agencies' initial
assessment of these devices, including incremental costs is discussed
in Chapter 2.10 of the draft RIA.
Table IV-3--Aerodynamic Technologies for Box Trailers
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Example Intended impact on
Location on trailer technologies aerodynamics
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Front........................... Front fairings and Reduce cross-flow
gap-reducing through gap and
fairings. smoothly
transition
airflow from
tractor to the
trailer.
Rear............................ Rear fairings, Reduce pressure
boat tails and drag induced by
flow diffusers. the trailer wake.
Underside....................... Side fairings and Manage flow of air
skirts, and under the trailer
underbody devices. to reduce
turbulence,
eddies and wake.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
As mentioned previously, SmartWay-verified technologies are
evaluated on 53-foot dry vans. However, the CO2- and fuel
consumption-reducing potential of some aerodynamic technologies
demonstrated on 53-foot dry vans can be translated to refrigerated vans
and box trailers in lengths different than 53 feet and some fleets have
opted to add trailer skirts to their refrigerated vans and 28-foot
trailers (often called ``pups''). In addition, some side skirts have
been adapted for non-box trailers (e.g., tankers, platforms, and
container chassis), and have shown potential for large reductions in
drag. At this time, however, non-box trailer aerodynamic devices are
not widely available, with many still at the prototype stage. The
agencies encourage commenters to provide more information and data
related to the effectiveness of technologies applied to trailers other
than 53-foot dry and refrigerated vans.
``Boat tail'' devices, applied to the rear of a trailer, are
typically designed to collapse flat as the trailer rear doors are
opened. If the tail structure can remain in the collapsed configuration
when the doors are closed, the benefit of the device is lost. The
agencies request comment on whether we should require that trailer
manufacturers using such devices for compliance with the proposed
standards only use designs that automatically deploy when the vehicle
is in motion.
The agencies are aware that physical characteristics of some box
trailers influence the technologies that can be applied. For instance,
the TRUs on refrigerated vans are located at the front of the trailer,
which prohibits the use of current gap-reducers. Similarly, drop deck
dry vans have lowered floors between the landing gear and the trailer
axles that limit the ability to use side skirts. The agencies
considered the availability and limitations of aerodynamic technologies
for each trailer type evaluated in our feasibility analysis of the
proposed and alternative standards.
(b) Tire Rolling Resistance
On a typical Class 8 long-haul tractor-trailer, over 40 percent of
the total energy loss from tires is attributed to rolling resistance
from the trailer tires.\225\ Trailer tire rolling resistance values
collected by the agencies for Phase 1 indicate that the average
coefficient of rolling resistance (CRR) for new trailer
tires was 6.0 kg/ton. This value was applied for the standard trailer
used for tractor compliance in the Phase 1 tractor program. For Phase
2, the agencies consider all trailer tires with CRR values
below 6.0 kg/ton to be ``lower rolling resistance'' (LRR) tires. For
reference, a trailer tire that qualifies as a SmartWay-verified tire
must meet a CRR value of 5.1 kg/ton, a 15 percent
CRR reduction from the trailer tire identified in Phase 1.
Our research of rolling resistance indicates an additional
CRR reduction of 15 percent or more from the SmartWay
verification threshold is possible with tires that are available in the
commercial market today.
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\225\ ``Tires & Truck Fuel Economy: A New Perspective'', The
Tire Topic Magazine, Special Edition Four, 2008, Bridgestone
Firestone, North American Tire, LLC. Available online: https://www.trucktires.com/bridgestone/us_eng/brochures/pdf/08-Tires_and_Truck_Fuel_Economy.pdf.
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For this proposal, the agencies are proposing to use the same
rolling resistance baseline value of 6.0 kg/ton for all trailer
subcategories. We request comment on the appropriateness of 6.0 kg/ton
as the proposed CRR threshold for all regulated trailers.
Specifically, the agencies would like more information on current
adoption rates of and CRR values for models of LRR tires
currently in use on short box trailers and the various non-box
trailers.
Similar to the case of tractor tires, LRR tires are available as
either dual or as single wide-based tires for trailers. Single wide-
based tires achieve CRR values that are similar to their
dual counterparts, but have an added benefit of weight reduction, which
can be an attractive option for trailers that frequently maximize cargo
weight. See Section IV.D.1.d below.
(c) Tire Pressure Systems
The inflation pressure of tires also impacts the rolling
resistance. Tractor-trailers operating with all tires under-inflated by
10 psi have been shown to increase fuel consumed by up to 1
percent.\226\ Tires can gradually lose pressure from small punctures,
leaky valves or simply diffusion through the tire casing. Changes in
ambient temperature can also have an effect on tire pressure. Trailers
that remain unused for long periods of time between hauls may
experience any of these conditions. A 2003 FMCSA report found that
nearly 1 in 5 trailers had at least 1 tire under-inflated by 20 psi or
more. If drivers or fleets are not diligent about checking and
attending to under-inflated tires, the trailer may have much higher
rolling resistance and much higher CO2 emissions and fuel
consumption.
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\226\ ``Tire Pressure Systems--Confidence Report''. North
American Council for Freight Efficiency. 2013. Available online:
https://nacfe.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/TPS-Detailed-Confidence-Report1.pdf.
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Tire pressure monitoring (TPM) and automatic tire inflation (ATI)
systems are designed to address under-inflated tires. Both systems
alert drivers if a tire's pressure drops below its set point. TPM
systems are simpler and merely monitor tire pressure. Thus, they
require user-interaction to re inflate to the appropriate pressure.
Today's ATI systems, on the other hand, typically
[[Page 40262]]
take advantage of trailers' air brake systems to supply air back into
the tires (continuously or on demand) until a selected pressure is
achieved. In the event of a slow leak, ATI systems have the added
benefit of maintaining enough pressure to allow the driver to get to a
safe stopping area. The agencies believe TPM systems cannot
sufficiently guarantee the proper inflation of tires due to the
inherent user-interaction required. Therefore, ATI systems are the only
pressure systems the agencies are proposing to recognize in Phase 2.
Benefits of ATI systems in individual trailers vary depending on
the base level of maintenance already performed by the driver or fleet,
as well as the number of miles the trailer travels. Trailers that are
well maintained or that travel fewer miles will experience less
benefits from ATI systems compared to trailers that often drive with
poorly inflated tires or log many miles. The agencies believe ATI
systems can provide a CO2 and fuel consumption benefit to
most trailers. With ATI use, trailers that have lower annual vehicle
miles traveled (VMT) due to long periods between uses would be less
susceptible to low tire pressures when they resume activity. Trailers
with high annual VMT would experience the fuel savings associated with
consistent tire pressures. Automatic tire inflation systems could
provide a CO2 and fuel consumption savings of 0.5-2.0
percent, depending on the degree of under-inflation in the trailer
system. See Section IV.D.3.d below for discussion of our estimates of
these factors, as well as estimates of the degree of adoption of ATI
systems prior to and at various points in the phase-in of the proposed
program.
The use of ATI systems can result in cost savings beyond reducing
fuel costs. For example, drivers and fleets that diligently maintain
their tires would spend less time and money to inspect each tire. A
2011 FMCSA estimated under-inflation accounts for one service call per
year and increases tire procurement costs 10 to 13 percent. The study
found that total operating costs can increase by $600 to $800 per year
due to under-inflation.\227\
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\227\ TMC Future Truck Committee Presentation ``FMCSA Tire
Pressure Monitoring Field Operational Test Results,'' February 8,
2011.
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(d) Weight Reduction
Reduction in trailer tare (i.e., empty) weight can lead to fuel
efficiency reductions in two ways. For applications where payload is
not limited by weight restrictions, the overall weight of the tractor
and trailer would be reduced and would lead to improved fuel
efficiency. For applications where payload is limited by weight
restrictions, the lower trailer weight would allow additional payload
to be transported during the truck's trip, so emissions and fuel
consumption on a ton-mile basis would decrease. There are weight
reduction opportunities for trailers in both the structural components
and in the wheels/tires. Material substitution (e.g., replacing steel
with aluminum or lighter-weight composites) is feasible for components
such as roof bows, side and corner posts, cross members, floor joists,
floors, and van sidewalls. Similar material substitution is feasible
for wheels (e.g., substituting aluminum for steel). Weight can also be
reduced through the use of single wide-based tires replacing two dual
tires.
Lower weight is a desired trailer attribute for many customers, and
most trailer manufacturers offer options that reduce weight to some
degree. Some of these manufacturers, especially box van makers, market
trailers with lower-weight major components, such as light-weight
composite van sidewalls or aluminum floors, especially to customers
that expect to frequently reach regulatory weight limits (i.e., ``weigh
out'') and are willing to pay a premium for the ability to increase
cargo weight without exceeding overall vehicle weight. Alternatively,
manufacturers that primarily design trailers for customers that do not
have weight limit concerns (i.e., their payloads frequently fill the
available trailer cargo space before the weight limit is reached, or
``cube out''), or for customers that have smaller budgets, may continue
to design trailers based on traditional, heavier materials, such as
wood and steel.
There is no clear ``baseline'' for current trailer weight against
which lower-weight designs could be compared for regulatory purposes.
For this reason, the agencies do not believe it would be appropriate or
fair across the industry to apply overall weight reductions toward
compliance. However, the agencies do believe it would be appropriate to
allow a manufacturer to account for weight reductions that involve
substituting very specific, traditionally heavier components with
lower-weight options that are not currently widely adopted in the
industry. We discuss how we apply weight reduction in developing the
standards in Section IV. D. (2)(d) below.
(2) Technological Basis of the Standards
The analysis below presents one possible set of technology designs
by which trailer manufacturers could reasonably achieve the goals of
the program on average. However, in practice, trailer manufacturers
could choose different technologies, versions of technologies, and
combinations of technologies that meet the business needs of their
customers while complying with this proposed program.
Much of our analysis is performed for box trailers, which have the
most stringent proposed standards. As mentioned previously, we have
separate standards for short and long box vans, and a trailer length of
50 feet is proposed as the cut-point to distinguish the two length
categories. For the purpose of this analysis, long trailers are
represented by 53-foot vans and short trailers are represented by
single, 28-foot (``pup'') vans. These trailer lengths make up the
largest fraction of the vans in the two categories. The agencies
recognize that many 28-foot short vans are operated in tandem. However,
these trailers are sold individually, and require a ``dolly'', often
sold by a separate manufacturer, to connect the trailers for tandem
operation.
In addition, the other trailer types considered short vans in this
proposal (e.g., 40-foot and 48-foot) typically operate as single
trailers. To minimize complexity, we are proposing that 28-foot
trailers represent all short refrigerated and dry vans for both
compliance and for this feasibility analysis. This means that
manufacturers would not need to perform tests (or report device
manufacturers' test data) of the performance of devices for each
trailer length in the short van category. Although this approach would
provide a conservative estimate of actual CO2 emissions and
fuel consumption reductions for the short van category, the agencies
believe that the need to avoid an overly complex compliance program
justifies this approach. We request comment on this approach to
evaluating short box trailers.
(a) Aerodynamic Packages
In order to evaluate performance and cost of the aerodynamic
technologies discussed in the previous section, the agencies identified
``packages'' of individual or combined technologies that are being sold
today on box trailers. The agencies also identified distinct
performance levels (i.e., bins) for these technologies based on EPA's
aerodynamic testing. The agencies recognize that there are other
technology options that have similar performance. We chose the
technologies presented here based on their current adoption rates and
effectiveness in reducing CO2 and fuel consumption.
[[Page 40263]]
Bin I represents a base trailer with no aerodynamic technologies
added. There is no cost associated with this bin. Bin II achieves small
reductions in CO2 and fuel consumption. This bin includes a
gap reducing fairing added to a long dry van or a skirt added to a solo
short dry van.\228\ Bin III includes devices that would achieve
SmartWay's verification threshold of four percent at cruise speeds.
Some basic skirts and boat tails would achieve these levels of
reductions for long box trailers. A gap reducer and a basic skirt on a
short dry van would meet this level of performance. Bin IV technologies
are more effective, single aerodynamic devices for long box trailers,
including advanced skirts or boat tails, that achieve larger reductions
in drag than the technologies in Bin III. The combination of an
advanced skirt and gap reducer on a short dry van are also expected to
achieve this bin.
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\228\ The agencies recognize that many 28-foot pup trailers are
often operated in tandem. However, we are regulating and evaluating
short dry vans as solo trailers since they are sold individually and
the short box regulatory subcategories also include trailer sizes
not often operated in tandem (e.g., 40-foot and 48-foot trailers).
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Bin V levels of performance were not observed in EPA's aerodynamic
testing for short box trailers. It is possible that a gap reducer,
skirt, and boat tail could achieve this performance, but boat tails are
not feasible for 28-foot trailers operated in tandem unless the trailer
is located in the rear position. For this analysis, the agencies only
evaluated solo pup trailers and, therefore, did not evaluate any
technologies for short box trailers beyond Bin IV. For this proposed
rulemaking, we believe a Bin V level of performance can be achieved for
long box trailers by either highly effective single devices or by
applying a combination of basic boat tails and skirts. We do not
currently have data for a single aerodynamic device that fits this bin
and we evaluated it as a combination of a basic tail and skirt. Bin VI
combines advanced skirts and boat tail technologies on long box
trailers. This bin is expected to include many technologies that
qualify for SmartWay's ``Elite'' designation.
Bin VII represents an optimized system of technologies that work
together to synergistically address each of the main areas of drag and
achieves aerodynamic improvements greater than SmartWay's ``Elite''
designation. We are representing Bin VII with a gap reducer, and
advanced tail and skirt. Bin VIII is designed to represent aerodynamic
technologies that may become available in the future, including
aerodynamic devices yet to be designed or approaches that would
incorporate changes to the construction of trailer bodies. We have not
analyzed this final bin in terms of effectiveness or cost, but are
including it to account for future advancements in trailer
aerodynamics.
For this proposal, aerodynamic performance is evaluated using a
vehicle's aerodynamic drag area, CDA. EPA collected
aerodynamic test data for several tractor-trailer configurations,
including 53-foot dry vans and 28-foot dry van trailers with many of
these technology packages. The agencies developed bins, somewhat
similar to the aerodynamic bins in the Phase 1 and proposed Phase 2
tractor programs, based on results from our test program. However,
unlike the tractor program, we grouped the technologies by changes in
CDA (or ``delta CDA'') rather than by absolute
values. In other words, each bin would comprise aerodynamic
technologies that provide similar improvements in drag. This delta
CDA classification methodology, which measures improvement
in performance relative to a baseline, is similar to the SmartWay
technology verification program with which most trailer manufacturers
are familiar.
Table IV-4 illustrates the bin structure that the agencies are
proposing as the basis for compliance. The table shows example
technology packages that might be included in each bin based on EPA's
testing of 53-foot dry vans and solo 28-foot dry vans. The agencies
believe these bins apply to other box trailers (refrigerated vans and
lengths other than 28 and 53 feet), which will be described in more
detail in Section IV.D.3.b. These bins cover a wide enough range of
delta CDAs to account for the uncertainty seen in EPA's
aerodynamic testing program due to procedure variability, the use of
different test methods, or different models of tractors, trailers and
devices. A more detailed description of the development of these bins
can be found in the draft RIA, Chapter 2.10. We welcome comments and
additional data that may support or suggest changes to these bins.
Table IV-4--Technology Bins Used To Evaluate Trailer Benefits and Costs
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Example technologies
Bin Delta CdA Average delta ---------------------------------------------
CDA 53-foot dry van 28-foot dry van
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Bin I............................. < 0.09 0.0 No Aero Devices...... No Aero Devices.
Bin II............................ 0.10-0.19 0.1 Gap Reducer.......... Skirt.
Bin III........................... 0.20-0.39 0.3 Basic Skirt or Basic Skirt + Gap Reducer.
Tail.
Bin IV............................ 0.40-0.59 0.5 Advanced Skirt or Adv. Skirt + Gap
Tail. Reducer.
Bin V............................. 0.60-0.79 0.7 Basic Combinations...
Bin VI............................ 0.80-1.19 1.0 Advanced Combinations .....................
(including SmartWay
Elite).
Bin VII........................... 1.20-1.59 1.4 Optimized .....................
Combinations.
Bin VIII.......................... > 1.6 1.8 Changes to Trailer .....................
Construction.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note: A blank cell indicates a zero or NA value in this table.
The agencies used EPA's Greenhouse gas Emissions Model (GEM)
vehicle simulation tool to conduct this analysis. See Section F.1 below
for more about GEM. Within GEM, the aerodynamic performance of each
trailer subcategory is evaluated by subtracting the delta
CDA shown in Table IV-4 from the CDA value
representing a specific standard tractor pulling a zero-technology
trailer. The agencies chose to model the zero-technology long box dry
van using a CDA value of 6.2 m\2\ (the average
CDA from EPA's coastdown testing). For long box refrigerated
vans, a two percent reduction in CDA was assumed to account
for the aerodynamic benefit of the TRU at the front of the trailer.
Short box dry vans also received a two percent lower CDA
value compared to its 53-foot counterpart, consistent with the
reduction observed in EPA's wind tunnel testing. The CDA
value assigned to the refrigerated short box vans was an
[[Page 40264]]
additional two percent lower than the short box dry van. Non-aero box
trailers are modeled as short box dry vans. The trailer subcategories
that have design standards (i.e., non-box and non-aero box trailers) do
not have numerical standards to meet, but they were evaluated in this
feasibility analysis in order to quantify the benefits of including
them in the program. Non-aero box trailers are modeled as short dry
vans. Non-box trailers, which are modeled as flatbed trailers, were
assigned a drag area of 4.9 m\2\, as was done in the Phase 1 tractor
program for low roof day cabs. Table IV-5 illustrates the Bin I drag
areas (CDA) associated with each trailer subcategory.
Table IV-5--Baseline CDA Values Associated With Aerodynamic Bin I
[Zero trailer technologies]
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trailer subcategory Dry van
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Long Dry Van............................................ 6.2
Short Dry Van........................................... 6.1
Long Ref. Van........................................... 6.1
Short Ref. Van.......................................... 6.0
Non-Aero Box............................................ 6.1
Non-Box................................................. 4.9
------------------------------------------------------------------------
(b) Tire Rolling Resistance
Similar to the proposed Phase 2 tractor and vocational vehicle
programs, the agencies are proposing a tire program based on adoption
of lower rolling resistance tires. Feedback from several box trailer
manufacturers indicates that the standard tires offered on their new
trailers are SmartWay-verified tires (i.e., CRR of 5.1 kg/
ton or better). An informal survey of members from the Truck Trailer
Manufacturers Association (TTMA) indicates about 35 percent of box
trailers sold today have SmartWay tires.\229\ While some trailers
continue to be sold with tires of higher rolling resistances, the
agencies believe most box trailer tires currently achieve the Phase 1
trailer tire CRR of 6.0 kg/ton or better.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\229\ Truck Trailer Manufacturers Association letter to EPA.
Received on October 16, 2014. Docket EPA-HQ-OAR-2014-0827.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
The agencies evaluated two levels of tire performance for this
proposal beyond the baseline trailer tire rolling resistance level
(TRRL) of 6.0 kg/ton. The first performance level was set at the
criteria for SmartWay-verification for trailer tires, 5.1 kg/ton, which
is a 15 percent reduction in CRR from the baseline. As
mentioned previously, several tire models available today achieve
rolling resistance values well below the present SmartWay threshold.
Given the multiple year phase-in of the standards, the agencies expect
that tire manufacturers will continue to respond to demand for more
efficient tires and will offer increasing numbers of tire models with
rolling resistance values significantly better than today's typical LRR
tires. In this context, we believe it is reasonable to expect a large
fraction of the trailer industry could adopt tires with rolling
resistances at a second performance level that would achieve an
additional eight percent reduction in rolling resistance (a 22 percent
reduction from the baseline tire), especially in the later stages of
the program. The agencies project the CRR for this second
level of performance to be a value of 4.7 kg/ton.
The agencies evaluated these three tire rolling resistance levels,
summarized in Table IV-6, in the feasibility analysis of the following
sections. GEM simulations that apply Level 1 and 2 tires result in
CO2 and fuel consumption reductions of two and three percent
from the baseline tire, respectively. It should be noted that these
levels are for the feasibility analysis only. For compliance,
manufacturers would have the option to use tires with any rolling
resistance and would not be limited to these TRRLs.
Table IV-6--Summary of Trailer Tire Rolling Resistance Levels Evaluated
------------------------------------------------------------------------
CRR (kg/
Tire rolling resistance level ton)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Baseline..................................................... 6.0
Level 1...................................................... 5.1
Level 2...................................................... 4.7
------------------------------------------------------------------------
(c) Automatic Tire Inflation Systems
NHTSA and EPA recognize the role of proper tire inflation in
maintaining optimum tire rolling resistance during normal trailer
operation. For this proposal, rather than require performance testing
of ATI systems, the agencies are proposing to recognize the benefits of
ATI systems with a single default reduction for manufacturers that
incorporate ATI systems into their trailer designs. Based on
information available today, we believe that there is a narrow range of
performance among technologies available and among systems in typical
use. We propose to assign a 1.5 percent reduction in CO2 and
fuel consumption for all trailers that implement ATI systems, based on
information available today.\230\ We believe the use of these systems
can consistently ensure that tire pressure and tire rolling resistance
are maintained. We selected the levels of the proposed trailer
standards with the expectation that a high rate of adoption of ATI
systems would occur across all on-highway trailers and during all years
of the phase-in of the program. See Section IV.D.3.d below for
discussion of our estimates of these factors, as well as estimates of
the degree of adoption of ATI systems prior to and at various points in
the phase-in of the proposed program. The informal survey of members
from the Truck Trailer Manufacturers Association (TTMA) indicates about
40 percent of box trailers sold today have ATI systems.\231\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\230\ See the Chapter 2.10.2.3 of the draft RIA.
\231\ Truck Trailer Manufacturers Association letter to EPA.
Received on October 16, 2014. Docket EPA-HQ-OAR-2014-0827
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
(d) Weight Reduction
The agencies are proposing compliance provisions that would limit
the weight-reduction options to the substitution of specified
components that can be clearly isolated from the trailer as a whole.
For this proposal, the agencies have identified several conventional
components with available lighter-weight substitutes (e.g.,
substituting conventional dual tires mounted on steel wheels with wide-
based single tires mounted on aluminum wheels). We are proposing values
for the associated weight-related savings that would be applied with
these substitutions for compliance. The proposed component
substitutions and their associated weight savings are presented in the
draft RIA, Chapter 2.10.2.4 and in proposed 40 CFR 1037.515. We believe
that the initial cost of these component substitutions is currently
substantial enough that only a relatively small segment of the industry
has adopted these technologies today.
The agencies recognize that when weight reduction is applied to a
trailer, some operators will replace that saved weight with additional
payload. To account for this in EPA's GEM vehicle simulation tool, it
is assumed that one-third of the weight reduction will be applied to
the payload. For tractor-trailers simulated in GEM, it takes a weight
reduction of nearly 1,000 lbs before a one percent fuel savings is
achieved. The component substitutions identified by the agencies result
in weight reductions of less than 500 lbs, yet can cost over $1,000.
The agencies believe that few trailer manufacturers would apply weight
reduction solely as a means of achieving reduced fuel consumption and
CO2 emissions. Therefore, we are proposing standards that
could be met without reducing weight--that is, the compliance path set
[[Page 40265]]
out by the agencies for the proposed standards does not include weight
reduction. However, we are proposing to offer weight reduction as an
option for box trailer manufacturers who wish to apply it to some of
their trailers as part of their compliance strategy.
The agencies have identified 11 common trailer components that have
lighter weight options available (see 40 CFR 1037.515)
232 233 234 235 Manufacturers that adopt these technologies
would sum the associated weight reductions and apply those values in
GEM. As mentioned previously, we are restricting the weight reduction
options to those listed in 40 CFR 1037.515. We are requesting comment
on the appropriateness of the specified weight reductions from
component substitution. In addition, we seek weight and cost data
regarding additional components that could be offered as specific
weight reduction options. The agencies request that any such components
be applicable to most box trailers, and that the reduced weight option
not currently be in common use.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\232\ Scarcelli, Jamie. ``Fuel Efficiency for Trailers''
Presented at ACEEE/ICCT Workshop: Emerging Technologies for Heavy-
Duty Vehicle Fuel Efficiency, Wabash National Corporation. July 22,
2014.
\233\ ``Weight Reduction: A Glance at Clean Freight
Strategies'', EPA SmartWay. EPA420F09-043. Available at: https://permanent.access.gpo.gov/gpo38937/EPA420F09-043.pdf.
\234\ Memorandum dated June 2015 regarding confidential weight
reduction information obtained during SBREFA Panel. Docket EPA-HQ-
OAR-2014-0827.
\235\ Randall Scheps, Aluminum Association, ``The Aluminum
Advantage: Exploring Commercial Vehicles Applications,'' presented
in Ann Arbor, Michigan, June 18, 2009.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
(3) Effectiveness, Adoption Rates, and Costs of Technologies for the
Proposed Standards
The agencies evaluated the technologies above as they apply to each
of the trailer subcategories. The next sections describe the
effectiveness, adoption rates and costs associated with these
technologies. The effectiveness and adoption rates are then used to
derive the proposed standards.
(a) Zero-Technology Baseline Tractor-Trailer Vehicles
The regulatory purpose of EPA's heavy-duty vehicle compliance tool,
GEM, is to combine the effects of trailer technologies through
simulation so that they can be expressed as g/ton-mile and gal/1000
ton-mile and thus avoid the need for direct testing of each trailer
model being certified. The proposed trailer program has separate
standards for each trailer subcategory, and a unique tractor-trailer
vehicle was chosen to represent each subcategory for compliance. In the
Phase 2 update to GEM, each trailer subcategory is modeled as a
particular trailer being pulled by a standard tractor depending on the
physical characteristics and use pattern of the trailer. Table IV-7
highlights the relevant vehicle characteristics for the zero-technology
baseline of each subcategory. Baseline trailer tires are used, and the
drag area, which is a function of the aerodynamic characteristics of
both the tractor and trailer, is set to the Bin I values shown
previously in Table IV-5. Weight reduction and ATI systems are not
applied in these baselines. Chapter 2.10 of the draft RIA provides a
detailed description of the development of these baseline tractor-
trailers.
The agencies chose to consistently model a Class 8 tractor across
all trailer subcategories. We recognize that Class 7 tractors are
sometimes used in certain applications. However, we believe Class 8
tractors are more widely available, which will make it easier for
trailer manufacturers to obtain a qualified tractor if they choose to
perform trailer testing. We request comment on the use of Class 8
tractors as part of the tractor-trailer vehicles used in the compliance
simulation as well as performance testing. We ask that commenters
include data, where available, related to the current use and
availability of Class 7 and 8 tractors with respect to the trailer
types in each trailer subcategory.
Table IV--7 Characteristics of the Zero-Technology Baseline Tractor-Trailer Vehicles
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Dry van
Refrigerated van Non-aero box Non-box
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trailer Length.................. Long.............. Short............. Long.............. Short............. All Lengths....... All Lengths
Tractor Class................... Class 8........... Class 8........... Class 8........... Class 8........... Class 8........... Class 8
Tractor Cab Type................ Sleeper........... Day............... Sleeper........... Day............... Day............... Day
Tractor Roof Height............. High.............. High.............. High.............. High.............. High.............. Low
Engine.......................... 2018 MY 15L,...... 2018 MY 15L,...... 2018 MY 15L,...... 2018 MY 15L,...... 2018 MY 15L,...... 2018 MY 15L,
455 HP............ 455 HP............ 455 HP............ 455 HP............ 455 HP............ 455 HP
Frontal Area (m\2\)............. 10.4.............. 10.4.............. 10.4.............. 10.4.............. 10.4.............. 6.9
Drag Area, CDA (m\2\)........... 6.2............... 6.1............... 6.1............... 6.0............... 6.1............... 4.9
Steer Tire RR (kg/ton).......... 6.54.............. 6.54.............. 6.54.............. 6.54.............. 6.54.............. 6.54
Drive Tire RR (kg/ton).......... 6.92.............. 6.92.............. 6.92.............. 6.92.............. 6.92.............. 6.92
Trailer Tire RR (kg/ton)........ 6.00.............. 6.00.............. 6.00.............. 6.00.............. 6.00.............. 6.00
Total Weight (kg)............... 31,978............ 21,028............ 33,778............ 22,828............ 21,028............ 29,710
Payload (tons).................. 19................ 10................ 19................ 10................ 10................ 19
ATI System Use.................. 0................. 0................. 0................. 0................. 0................. 0
Weight Reduction (lb)........... 0................. 0................. 0................. 0................. 0................. 0
Drive Cycle Weightings.......... .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. ..................
65-MPH Cruise................... 86%............... 64%............... 86%............... 64%............... 64%............... 64%
55-MPH Cruise................... 9%................ 17%............... 9%................ 17%............... 17%............... 17%
Transient Driving............... 5%................ 19%............... 5%................ 19%............... 19%............... 19%
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(b) Effectiveness of Technologies
The agencies are proposing to recognize trailer improvements via
four performance parameters: aerodynamic drag reduction, tire rolling
resistance reduction, the adoption of ATI systems, and by substituting
specific weight-reducing components. Table IV-8 summarizes the
performance levels for each of these parameters based on the technology
characteristics outlined in Section IV. D. (2) .
[[Page 40266]]
Table IV--8 Performance Parameters for the Proposed Trailer Program
------------------------------------------------------------------------
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Aerodynamics (Delta CDA, m\2\):
Bin I................................... 0.0.
Bin II.................................. 0.1.
Bin III................................. 0.3.
Bin IV.................................. 0.5.
Bin V................................... 0.7.
Bin VI.................................. 1.0.
Bin VII................................. 1.4.
Bin VIII................................ 1.8.
Tire Rolling Resistance (CRR, kg/ton):
Tire Baseline........................... 6.0.
Tire Level 1............................ 5.1.
Tire Level 2............................ 4.7.
Tire Inflation System (% reduction):
ATI System.............................. 1.5.
Weight Reduction (lbs):
Weight.................................. 1/3 added to payload,
remaining reduces overall
vehicle weight.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
These performance parameters have different effects on each trailer
subcategory due to differences in the simulated trailer
characteristics. Table IV-9 shows the agencies' estimates of the
effectiveness of each parameter for the four box trailer subcategories.
Each technology was evaluated using the baseline parameter values for
the other technology categories. For example, each aerodynamic bin was
evaluated using the baseline tire (6.0 kg/ton) and the baseline weight
reduction option (zero lbs). The table shows that aerodynamic
improvements offer the largest potential for CO2 emissions
and fuel consumption reductions, making them relatively effective
technologies.
Table IV-9--Effectiveness (Percent CO2 and Fuel Savings From Baseline) of Technologies for the Proposed Trailer
Program
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Dry van Refrigerated van
Aerodynamics Delta CDA (m\2\) ---------------------------------------------------------------
Long Short Long Short
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Bin I......................... 0.0............. 0% 0% 0% 0%
Bin II........................ 0.1............. -1 -1 -1 -1
Bin III....................... 0.3............. -2 -2 -2 -2
Bin IV........................ 0.5............. -3 -4 -3 -3
Bin V......................... 0.7............. -5 -5 -5 -5
Bin VI........................ 1.0............. -7 -7 -7 -7
Bin VII....................... 1.4............. -10 -10 -9 -10
Bin VIII...................... 1.8............. -13 -13 -12 -12
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tire Rolling Resistance CRR (kg/ton).... Dry van
Refrigerated van
---------------------------------------------------------------
Long Short Long Short
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Baseline...................... 6.0............. 0 0 0 0
Level 1....................... 5.1............. -2 -1 -2 -1
Level 2....................... 4.7............. -3 -2 -3 -2
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Weight Reduction Weight (lb)..... Dry van
Refrigerated van
---------------------------------------------------------------
Long Short Long Short
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Baseline...................... 0.0............. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Al. Dual Wheels............... 168............. -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.3
Upper Coupler................. 280............. -0.3 -1 -0.3 -1
Suspension.................... 430............. -0.5 -1 -0.5 -1
Al. Single Wide............... 556............. -1 -1 -1 -1
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(c) Reference Tractor-Trailer To Evaluate Benefits and Costs
In order to evaluate the benefits and costs of the proposed
standards, it is necessary to establish a reference point for
comparison. As mentioned previously, the technologies described in
Section IV. D. (2) exist in the market today, and their adoption is
driven by available fuel savings as well as by the voluntary SmartWay
Partnership and California's tractor-trailer requirements. For this
proposal, the agencies identified reference case tractor-trailers for
each trailer subcategory based on the technology adoption rates we
project would exist if this proposed trailer program was not
implemented.
We project that by 2018, absent further California regulation,
EPA's SmartWay program and these research programs will result in about
20 percent of 53-foot dry and refrigerated vans adopting basic
SmartWay-level aerodynamic technologies (meeting SmartWay's four
percent verification level and Bin III from Table IV-5), 30 percent
adopting more advanced aerodynamic technologies at the five percent
SmartWay-verification level (Bin IV from Table IV-5) and five percent
adding combinations of technologies (Bin V).236 237 238 In
addition, we project half of these 53' box trailers will be equipped
with SmartWay-verified tires (i.e., 5.1 kg/ton or better) and ATI
systems as well. The agencies project that market forces will drive an
additional one percent increase in adoption of the advanced SmartWay
and tire technologies each year through 2027. For analytical purposes,
the agencies assumed manufacturers of the shorter box trailers and
other trailer
[[Page 40267]]
subcategories would not adopt these technologies in the timeframe
considered and a zero-technology baseline is assumed. We are not
assuming weight reduction for any of the trailer subcategories in the
reference cases. Table IV-10 summarizes the reference case trailers for
each trailer subcategory.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\236\ Truck Trailer Manufacturers Association letter to EPA.
Received on October 16, 2014. Docket EPA-HQ-OAR-2014-0827.
\237\ Ben Sharpe (ICCT) and Mike Roeth (North American Council
for Freight Efficiency), ``Costs and Adoption Rates of Fuel-Saving
Technologies for Trailer in the North American On-Road Freight
Sector'', Feb 2014.
\238\ Frost & Sullivan, ``Strategic Analysis of North American
Semi-trailer Advanced Technology Market'', Feb 2013.
Table IV-10--Projected Adoption Rates and Average Performance Parameters for the Less Dynamic Reference Case
Trailers
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Technology Long box dry & refrigerated vans Short box, non-
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- aero box, &
non-box
trailers
Model Year 2018 2021 2024 2027 ---------------
2018-2027
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Aerodynamics:
Bin I....................... 45% 41% 38% 35% 100%
Bin II...................... .............. .............. .............. .............. ..............
Bin III..................... 20 20 20 20 ..............
Bin IV...................... 30 34 37 40 ..............
Bin V....................... 5 5 5 5 ..............
Bin VI...................... .............. .............. .............. .............. ..............
Bin VII..................... .............. .............. .............. .............. ..............
Bin VIII.................... .............. .............. .............. .............. ..............
Average Delta CDA (m\2\) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0
\a\....................
Tire Rolling Resistance:
Baseline tires.............. 50 47 43 40 100
Level 1 tires............... 50 53 57 60 ..............
Level 2 tires............... .............. .............. .............. .............. ..............
Average CRR (kg/ton) \a\ 5.55 5.52 5.49 5.46 6.0
Tire Inflation:
ATI......................... 50 53 57 60 0
Average % Reduction \a\. 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.0
Weight Reduction (lbs):
Weight \b\.................. .............. .............. .............. .............. ..............
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Notes: A blank cell indicates a zero value.
\a\ Combines adoption rates with performance levels shown in Table IV-8.
\b\ Weight reduction was not projected for the reference case trailers.
Also shown in Table IV-10 are average aerodynamic performance
(delta CDA), average tire rolling resistance
(CRR), and average reductions due to use of ATI and weight
reduction for each stage of the proposed program. These values indicate
the performance of theoretical average tractor-trailers that the
agencies project will be in use if no federal regulations were in place
for trailer CO2 and fuel consumption. The average tractor-
trailer vehicles serve as reference cases for each trailer subcategory.
The agencies provide a detailed description of the development of these
reference case vehicles in Chapter 2.10 in the draft RIA.
Because the agencies cannot be certain about future trends, we also
considered a second reference case. This more dynamic reference case
reflects the possibility that absent a Phase 2 regulation, there will
be continuing adoption of technologies in the trailer market after 2027
that reduce fuel consumption and CO2 emissions. This case
assumes the research funded and conducted by the federal government,
industry, academia and other organizations will, after 2027, result the
adoption of some technologies beyond the levels required to comply with
existing regulatory and voluntary programs. One example of such
research is the Department of Energy Super Truck program which has a
goal of demonstrating cost-effective measures to improve the efficiency
of Class 8 long-haul freight trucks by 50 percent by 2015.\239\ This
reference case assumes that by 2040, 75 percent of new trailers will be
equipped with SmartWay-verified aerodynamic devices, low rolling
resistance tires, and ATI systems. Table IV-11 shows the agencies'
projected adoption rates of technologies in the more dynamic reference
case.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\239\ Daimler Truck North America. SuperTruck Program Vehicle
Project Review. June 19, 2014. Docket EPA-HQ-OAR-2014-0827.
Table IV-11--Projected Adoption Rates and Average Performance Parameters for the More Dynamic Reference Case
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Technology Long box dry & refrigerated vans Short box, non-
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- aero box, &
non-box
trailers
Model year 2018 2021 2024 2027 2040 ---------------
2018-2027
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Aerodynamics:
Bin I............................................... 45% 41% 38% 35% 20% 100%
Bin II.............................................. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. ..............
Bin III............................................. 20 20 20 20 20 ..............
[[Page 40268]]
Bin IV.............................................. 30 34 37 40 55 ..............
Bin V............................................... 5 5 5 5 5 ..............
Bin VI.............................................. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. ..............
Bin VII............................................. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. ..............
Bin VIII............................................ .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. ..............
Average Delta C DA (m\2\) \a\................... 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.0
Tire Rolling Resistance:
Baseline tires...................................... 50 47 43 40 25 100
Level 1 tires....................................... 50 53 57 60 75 ..............
Level 2 tires....................................... .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. ..............
Average CRR (kg/ton) \a\........................ 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.3 6.0
Tire Inflation:
ATI..................................................... 50 53 57 60 75 0
Average % Reduction \a\......................... 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.1 0.0
Weight Reduction (lbs):
Weight \b\.......................................... .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. ..............
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Notes: A blank cell indicates a zero value.
\a\ Combines adoption rates with performance levels shown in Table IV-8.
\b\ Weight reduction was not projected for the reference case trailers.
The agencies applied the vehicle attributes from Table IV-7 and the
average performance values from Table IV-10 in the proposed Phase 2 GEM
vehicle simulation to calculate the CO2 emissions and fuel
consumption performance of the reference tractor-trailers. The results
of these simulations are shown in Table IV-12. We used these
CO2 and fuel consumption values to calculate the relative
benefits of the proposed standards. Note that the large difference
between the per ton-mile values for long and short trailers is due
primarily to the large difference in assumed payload (19 tons compared
to 10 tons) as seen in Table IV-7 and discussed further in the Chapter
2.10.3. The alternative reference case shown in Table IV-11 impacts the
long-term projections of benefits beyond 2027, which are analyzed in
Chapters 5-7 of the draft RIA.
Table IV-12--CO2 Emissions and Fuel Consumption Results for the Reference Tractor-Trailers
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Dry van Refrigerated van
Length ---------------------------------------------------------------
Long Short Long Short
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CO2 Emissions (g/ton-mile)...................... 85 147 87 151
Fuel Consumption (gal/1000 ton-miles)........... 8.3497 14.4401 8.5462 14.8330
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(d) Projected Technology Adoption Rates for the Proposed Standards
As described in Section IV. E., the agencies evaluated several
alternatives for the proposed trailer program. Based on our analysis,
and current information, the agencies are proposing the alternative we
believe reflects the agencies' respective statutory authorities. The
agencies are also considering an accelerated alternative with less lead
time, requiring the same incremental stringencies for the proposed
program, but becoming effective three years earlier. The agencies
believe this alternative has the potential to be the maximum feasible
alternative. However, based on the evidence currently before us, EPA
and NHTSA have outstanding questions regarding relative risks and
benefits of Alternative 4 due to the timeframe envisioned by that
alternative. EPA and NHTSA are seriously considering this accelerated
alternative in whole or in part for the trailer segment. In other
words, the agencies could determine that less lead-time is maximum
feasible in the final rule. We request comment on these two
alternatives, including the proposed lead-times.
Table IV-13 and Table IV-14 present a set of assumed adoption rates
for aerodynamic, tire, and ATI technologies that a manufacturer could
apply to meet the proposed standards. These adoption rates begin with
60 percent of long box trailers achieving current SmartWay level
aerodynamics (Bin IV) and progress to 90 percent achieving SmartWay
Elite (Bin VI) or better over the following nine years. The adoption
rates for short box trailers assume adoption of single aero devices in
MY 2021 and combinations of devices by MY 2027. Although the shorter
lengths of these trailers can restrict the design of aerodynamic
technologies that fully match the SmartWay-like performance levels of
long boxes, we nevertheless expect that trailer and device
manufacturers would continue to innovate skirt, under-body, rear, and
gap-reducing devices and combinations to achieve improved aerodynamic
performance on these shorter trailers. The assumed adoption rates for
aerodynamic technologies for both long and short refrigerated vans are
slightly less than for dry vans, reflecting the more limited number of
aerodynamic options due to the presence of their TRUs.
The gradual increase in assumed adoption of aerodynamic
technologies
[[Page 40269]]
throughout the phase-in to the MY 2027 standards recognizes that even
though many of the technologies are available today and technologically
feasible throughout the phase-period, their adoption on the scale of
the proposed program would likely take time. The adoption rates we are
assuming in the interim years--and the standards that we developed from
these rates--represent steady and yet reasonable improvement in average
aerodynamic performance.
The agencies project that nearly all box trailers will adopt tire
technologies to comply with the standards and the agencies projected
consistent adoption rates across all lengths of dry and refrigerated
vans, with more advanced (Level 2) low-rolling resistance tires assumed
to replace Level 1 tire models in the 2024 time frame, as Level 2-type
tires become more available and fleet experience with these tires
develops. As mentioned previously, the agencies did not include weight
reduction in their technology adoption projections, but certain types
of weight reduction could be used as a compliance pathway, as discussed
in Section IV.D.1.d above.
The adoption rates shown in these tables are one set of many
possible combinations that box trailer manufacturers could apply to
achieve the same average stringency. If a manufacturer chose these
adoption rates, a variety of technology options exist within the
aerodynamic bins, and several models of LRR tires exist for the levels
shown. Alternatively, technologies from other aero bins and tire levels
could be used to comply. It should be noted that manufacturers are not
limited to aerodynamic and tire technologies, since these are
performance-based standards, and manufacturers would not be constrained
to adopt any particular way to demonstrate compliance. Certain types of
weight reduction, for example, may be used as a compliance pathway, as
discussed in Section IV.D.1.d above.
Similar to our analyses of the reference cases, the agencies
derived a single set of performance parameters for each subcategory by
weighting the performance levels included in Table IV-8 by the
corresponding adoption rates. These performance parameters represent an
average compliant vehicle for each trailer subcategory and we present
these values in the tables. The 2024 MY adoption rates would continue
to apply for the partial-aero box trailers in 2027 and later model
years.
Table IV-13--Projected Adoption Rates and Average Performance Parameters for Long Box Trailers
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Technology Long box dry vans Long box refrigerated vans
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Model year 2018 2021 2024 2027 2018 2021 2024 2027
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Aerodynamic Technologies:
Bin I....................................................... 5% ......... ......... ......... 5% ......... ......... .........
Bin II...................................................... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Bin III..................................................... 30% 5% ......... ......... 30% 5% ......... .........
Bin IV...................................................... 60% 55% 25% ......... 60% 55% 25% .........
Bin V....................................................... 5% 10% 10% 10% 5% 10% 10% 20%
Bin VI...................................................... ......... 30% 65% 50% ......... 30% 65% 60%
Bin VII..................................................... ......... ......... ......... 40% ......... ......... ......... 20%
Bin VIII.................................................... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Average Delta CDA (m\2\) \a\............................ 0.4 0.7 0.8 1.1 0.4 0.7 0.8 1.0
Trailer Tire Rolling Resistance:
Baseline tires.............................................. 15% 5% 5% 5% 15% 5% 5% 5%
Level 1 tires............................................... 85% 95% ......... ......... 85% 95% ......... .........
Level 2 tires............................................... ......... ......... 95% 95% ......... ......... 95% 95%
Average CRR (kg/ton) \a\................................ 5.2 5.1 4.8 4.8 5.2 5.1 4.8 4.8
Tire Inflation System:
ATI......................................................... 85 95 95 95 85 95 95 95
Average ATI Reduction (%) \a\........................... 1.3% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.3% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4%
Weight Reduction (lbs):
Weight \b\.................................................. ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Notes: A blank cell indicates a zero value.
\a\ Combines projected adoption rates with performance levels shown in Table IV-8.
\b\ This set of proposed adoption rates did not apply any assumed weight reduction to meet the proposed standards for these trailers.
Table IV-14--Projected Adoption Rates and Average Performance Parameters for Short Box Trailers
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Technology Short box dry vans Short box refrigerated vans
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Model year 2018 2021 2024 2027 2018 2021 2024 2027
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Aerodynamic Technologies: \a\
Bin I....................................................... 100% 5% ......... ......... 100% 5% ......... .........
Bin II...................................................... ......... 95% 70% 30% ......... 95% 70% 55%
Bin III..................................................... ......... ......... 30% 60% ......... ......... 30% 40%
Bin IV...................................................... ......... ......... ......... 10% ......... ......... ......... 5%
Bin V....................................................... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Bin VI...................................................... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Bin VII..................................................... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Bin VIII.................................................... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Average Delta CDA (m\2\) \b\............................ 0.4 0.7 0.8 1.1 0.4 0.7 0.8 1.0
Trailer Tire Rolling Resistance:
Baseline tires.............................................. 15% 5% 5% 5% 15% 5% 5% 5%
Level 1 tires............................................... 85% 95% ......... ......... 85% 95% ......... .........
Level 2 tires............................................... ......... ......... 95% 95% ......... ......... 95% 95%
Average CRR (kg/ton) \b\................................ 5.2 5.1 4.8 4.8 5.2 5.1 4.8 4.8
[[Page 40270]]
Tire Inflation System:
ATI............................................................. 85% 95% 95% 95% 85% 95% 95% 95%
Average ATI Reduction (%) \c\........................... 1.3% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.3% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4%
Weight Reduction (lbs):
Weight \b\.................................................. ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Notes: A blank cell indicates a zero value.
\a\ The majority of short box trailers are 28 feet in length. We recognize that they are often operated in tandem, which limits the technologies that
can be applied (for example, boat tails).
\b\ Combines projected adoption rates with performance levels shown in Table IV-8.
\c\ This set of proposed adoption rates did not apply any assumed weight reduction to meet the proposed standards for these trailers.
Non-aero box trailers, with two or more work-related special
components, and non-box trailers are not shown in the tables above. We
are proposing that manufacturers of these trailers meet design-based
(i.e., technology-based) standards, instead of performance-based
standards that would apply to other trailers. That is, manufacturers of
these trailers would not need to use aerodynamic technologies, but they
would need to use appropriate lower rolling resistance tires and ATI
systems, based on our assessments of the typical CO2 and
fuel consumption performance of this equipment (see Section IV.2.c).
Thus, we are projecting 100 percent adoption rates of these
technologies at each stage of the program. Compared to manufacturers
that needed aerodynamic technologies to comply, the approach for non-
aero box trailers and non-box trailers would result in a significantly
lower compliance burden for manufacturers by reducing the amount of
tracking and eliminating the need to calculate a compliance value (see
Section IV. F.). The agencies are proposing these design standards in
two stages. In 2018, the proposed standards would require manufacturers
to use tires meeting a rolling resistance of Level 1 or better and to
install ATI systems on all non-box and non-aero box trailers. In 2024,
the proposed standards would require manufacturers to use LRR tires at
a Level 2 or better, and to still install ATI systems. We seek comment
on all aspects of this design-based standards concept. We also seek
comment on providing manufacturers with the option of adopting Level 2
tires in the early years of the program (MY 2018-2023) and avoiding the
use of ATI systems if they chose.
Table IV-15--Projected Adoption Rates and Average Performance Parameters for Non-Aero Box and Non-Box Trailers
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Technology Non-aero box & non-box trailers
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Model year 2018 2021 2024 2027
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Aerodynamic Technologies:
Bin I....................................... 100% 100% 100% 100%
Bin II...................................... .............. .............. .............. ..............
Bin III..................................... .............. .............. .............. ..............
Bin IV...................................... .............. .............. .............. ..............
Bin V....................................... .............. .............. .............. ..............
Bin VI...................................... .............. .............. .............. ..............
Bin VII..................................... .............. .............. .............. ..............
Bin VIII.................................... .............. .............. .............. ..............
Average Delta CDA (m\2\) \a\............ 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Trailer Tire Rolling Resistance:
Baseline tires.............................. .............. .............. .............. ..............
Level 1 tires............................... 100% 100% .............. ..............
Level 2 tires............................... .............. .............. 100% 100%
Average CRR (kg/ton) \a\................ 5.1 5.1 4.7 4.7
Tire Inflation System:
ATI......................................... 100% 100% 100% 100%
Average ATI Reduction (%) \a\........... 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5%
Weight Reduction (lbs):
Weight \b\.................................. .............. .............. .............. ..............
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Notes: A blank cell indicates a zero value.
\a\ Combines projected adoption rates with performance levels shown in Table IV-8.
\b\ This set of adoption rates did not apply weight reduction to meet the proposed standards for these trailers.
We request comment and any data related to our projections of
technology adoption rates. The following section (d) explains how the
agencies combined these adoption rates with the performance values
shown previously to calculate the proposed standards.
(e) Derivation of the Proposed Standards
The average performance parameters from Table IV-14, and Table IV-
15 were applied as input values to the GEM vehicle simulation to derive
the
[[Page 40271]]
proposed HD Phase 2 fuel consumption and CO2 emissions
standards for each subcategory of trailers. The proposed standards are
shown in Table IV-16. The proposed standards for partial-aero trailers,
which are not explicitly shown in Table IV-16, would be the same as
their full-aero counterparts through MY 2026. In MY 2027 and later,
partial aero trailers would continue to meet the MY 2024 standards.
Over the four stages of the proposed rule, box trailers longer than
50 feet would, on average, reduce their CO2 emissions and
fuel consumption by two percent, four percent, seven percent and eight
percent compared to their reference cases. Box trailers 50-feet and
shorter would achieve reductions of two percent, three percent and four
percent compared to their reference cases. The tire technologies used
on non-box and non-aero box trailers would provide reductions of two
percent in the first two stages and achieve three percent by 2027.
Table IV-16--Proposed Standards for Box Trailers
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Subcategory Dry van Refrigerated van
Model year ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Length Long Short Long Short
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2018--2020.................... EPA Standard 83 144 84 147
(CO2 Grams per
Ton-Mile).
Voluntary NHTSA 8.1532 14.1454 8.2515 14.4401
Standard
(Gallons per
1,000 Ton-Mile).
2021--2023.................... EPA Standard 81 142 82 146
(CO2 Grams per
Ton-Mile).
NHTSA Standard 7.9568 13.9489 8.0550 14.3418
(Gallons per
1,000 Ton-Mile).
2024--2026.................... EPA Standard 79 141 81 144
(CO2 Grams per
Ton-Mile).
NHTSA Standard 7.7603 13.8507 7.9568 14.1454
(Gallons per
1,000 Ton-Mile).
2027 +........................ EPA Standard 77 140 80 144
(CO2 Grams per
Ton-Mile).
NHTSA Standard 7.5639 13.7525 7.8585 14.1454
(Gallons per
1,000 Ton-Mile).
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
It should be noted that the proposed standards are based on highway
cruise cycles that include road grade to better reflect real world
driving and to help recognize engine and driveline technologies. See
Section III.E. The agencies have evaluated some alternate road grade
profiles recommended by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL)
and have prepared possible alternative trailer vehicle standards based
on these profiles. The agencies request comment on this analysis, which
is available in a memorandum to the docket.\240\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\240\ Memorandum dated May 2015 on Analysis of Possible Tractor,
Trailer, and Vocational Vehicle Standards Based on Alternative Road
Grade Profiles. Docket EPA-HQ-OAR-2014-0827.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
(f) Technology Costs for the Proposed Standards
The agencies evaluated the technology costs for 53-foot dry and
refrigerated vans and 28-foot dry vans, which we believe are
representative of the majority of trailers in the 50-foot and longer
and shorter than 50-foot categories, respectively. We identified costs
for each technology package evaluated and projected the costs for each
year of the program. A summary of the technology costs is included in
Table IV-17 through Table IV-20 for MYs 2018 through 2027, with
additional details available in the draft RIA Chapter 2.12. Costs shown
in the following tables are for the specific model year indicated and
are incremental to the average reference case costs, which includes
some level of adoption of these technologies as shown in Table IV-13.
Therefore, the technology costs in the following tables reflect the
average cost expected for each of the indicated trailer classes. Note
that these costs do not represent actual costs for the individual
components because some fraction of the component costs has been
subtracted to reflect some use of these components in the reference
case. For more on the estimated technology costs exclusive of adoption
rates, refer to Chapter 2.12 of the draft RIA. These costs include
indirect costs via markups and reflect lower costs over time due to
learning impacts. For a description of the markups and learning impacts
considered in this analysis and how technology costs for other years
are thereby affected, refer to Chapter 7 of the draft RIA. We welcome
comment on the technology costs, markups, and learning impacts.
Table IV-17--Trailer Technology Incremental Costs in the 2018 Model Year
[2012$]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
53-foot
53-foot dry refrigerated 28-foot dry Non-aero &
van van van non-box
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Aerodynamics.................................... $285 $285 $0 $0
Tires........................................... 65 65 78 185
Tire inflation system........................... 239 239 435 683
---------------------------------------------------------------
Total....................................... 588 588 514 868
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
[[Page 40272]]
Table IV-18--Trailer Technology Incremental Costs in the 2021 Model Year
[2012$]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
53-foot
53-foot dry refrigerated 28-foot dry Non-aero &
van van van non-box
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Aerodynamics.................................... $602 $602 $468 $0
Tires........................................... 65 65 79 175
Tire inflation system........................... 234 234 426 632
---------------------------------------------------------------
Total....................................... 901 901 974 807
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table IV-19--Trailer Technology Incremental Costs in the 2024 Model Year
[2012$]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
53-foot
53-foot dry refrigerated 28-foot dry Non-aero &
van van van non-box
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Aerodynamics.................................... $836 $836 $608 $0
Tires........................................... 61 61 76 160
Tire inflation system........................... 220 220 412 578
---------------------------------------------------------------
Total....................................... 1,116 1,116 1,097 739
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table IV-20--Trailer Technology Incremental Costs in the 2027 Model Year
[2012$]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
53-foot
53-foot dry refrigerated 28-foot dry Non-aero &
van van van non-box
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Aerodynamics.................................... $1,163 $1,034 $788 $0
Tires........................................... 54 54 74 155
Tire inflation system........................... 192 192 391 549
---------------------------------------------------------------
Total....................................... 1,409 1,280 1,253 704
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(4) Consistency of the Proposed Trailer Standards With the Agencies'
Legal Authority
The agencies' initial determination, subject to consideration of
public comment, is that the standards presented in the Section IV.C.2,
are the maximum feasible and appropriate under the agencies' respective
authorities, considering lead time, cost, and other factors. The
agencies' proposed decisions on the stringency and timing of the
proposed standards focused on available technology and the consequent
emission reductions and fuel efficiency improvements associated with
use of the technology, while taking into account the circumstances of
the trailer manufacturing sector. Trailer manufacturers would be
subject to first-time emission control and fuel consumption regulation
under the proposed standards. These manufacturers are in many cases
small businesses, with limited resources to master the mechanics of
regulatory compliance. Thus, the agencies' proposal seeks to provide a
reasonable time for trailer manufacturers to become familiar with the
requirements and the proposed new compliance regime, given the unique
circumstances of the industry and the compliance flexibilities and
optional compliance mechanisms specially adapted for this industry
segment that we are proposing.
The stringency of the standard is predicated on more widespread
deployment of aerodynamic and tire technologies that are already in
commercial use. The availability, feasibility, and level of
effectiveness of these technologies are well-documented. Thus the
agencies do not believe that there is any issue of technological
feasibility of the proposed standards. Among the issues reflected in
the agencies' proposal are considerations of cost and sufficiency of
lead-time--including lead-time not only to deploy technological
improvements, but also this industry sector to assimilate for the first
time the compliance mechanisms of the proposed rule.
The highest cost shown in Table IV-20 is associated with the long
dry vans. We project that the average cost per trailer to meet the
proposed MY 2027 standards for these trailers would be about $1,400,
which is less than 10 percent of the cost of a new dry van trailer
(estimated to be about $20,000). Other trailer types have lower
projected technology costs, and many have higher purchase prices. As a
result, we project that the per-trailer costs for all trailers covered
in this regulation will be less than 10 percent of the cost of a new
trailer. This trend is consistent with the expected average control
costs for Phase 2 tractors, which are also less than 10 percent of
typical tractor costs (see Section III).
The agencies believe these technologies can be adopted at the rates
the standards are predicated on within the proposed lead-time, as
discussed above in Section IV.C.(3). Moreover, we project that most
owners would rapidly recover the initial cost of these technologies due
to the associated fuel savings, usually in less than two years, as
shown in the payback analysis in Section IX. This payback period is
generally considered reasonable in the
[[Page 40273]]
trailer industry for investments that reduce fuel consumption.\241\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\241\ Roeth, Mike, et al. ``Barriers to Increased Adoption of
Fuel Efficiency Technologies in Freight Trucking''. July 2013.
International Council for Clean Transportation. Available here:
https://www.theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/ICCT-NACFE-CSS_Barriers_Report_Final_20130722.pdf.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Overall, as discussed above in IV.D.3.c in the context of our
assumed technology adoption rates, the gradual increase in stringency
of the proposed trailer program over the phase-in period recognizes two
important factors that the agencies carefully considered in developing
this proposed rule. One factor is that assumed adoption of technologies
many of the aerodynamic technologies that box trailer manufacturers
would likely choose are available today and clearly technologically
feasible throughout the phase-period. At the same time, we recognize
that the adoption of these technologies across the industry scale
envisioned by the proposed program would likely take time. The
standards we are proposing in the interim years represent steady
improvement in average aerodynamic performance toward the final MY 2027
standards.
E. Alternative Standards and Feasibility Considered
As discussed in Section X, the agencies evaluated several different
regulatory alternatives representing different levels of stringency for
the Phase 2 program. The results of the analysis of these proposed
alternatives are discussed below in Section X of the preamble. The
agencies believe each alternative is feasible from a technical
standpoint. However, each successive alternative increases costs and
complexity of compliance for the manufacturers, which can be a
prohibitive burden on the large number of small businesses in the
industry. Table IV-21 provides a summary of the alternatives considered
in this proposal.
Table IV-21--Summary of Alternatives Considered for the Proposed
Rulemaking
------------------------------------------------------------------------
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Alternative 1........................ No action alternative.
Alternative 2........................ Expand the use of aerodynamic and
tire technologies at SmartWay
levels to all 53-foot box
trailers.
Alternative 3 (Proposed Alternative). Adoption of advanced aerodynamic
and tire technologies on all box
trailers.
Adoption of tire technologies on
non-box trailers.
Alternative 4........................ Same technology and application
assumptions as Alternative 3
with an accelerated introduction
schedule.
Alternative 5........................ Aggressive adoption of advance
aerodynamic and tire
technologies for all box
trailers.
Adoption of aerodynamic and tire
technologies for some tank,
flatbed, and container chassis
trailers.
Adoption of tire technologies for
the remaining non-box trailers.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
While we welcome comment on any of these alternatives, we are
specifically requesting comment on Alternative 4 for the trailer
program identified as Alternative 4 above and in Section X. The same
general technology effectiveness values were considered and much of the
feasibility analysis was the same in this alternative and in the
proposed alternative, but Alternative 4 applies the adoption rates of
higher-performing aerodynamic technologies from Alternative 3 at
earlier stages for box trailers. This accelerated alternative achieves
the same final fuel consumption and CO2 reductions as our
proposed alternative three years in advance. The following sections
detail the adoption rates, reductions and costs projected for this
alternative.
(1) Effectiveness, Adoption Rates, and Technology Costs for Alternative
4
Alternative 4 includes the same trailer subcategories and same
trailer technologies as the proposed alternative. Therefore, the zero-
technology baseline trailers (Table IV-7), reference case trailers
(Table IV-10) and performance levels (Table IV-8) described in Section
IV. D. apply for this analysis as well. The following sections describe
the adoption rates of this accelerated alternative and the associated
benefits and costs.
(a) Projected Technology Adoption Rates for Alternative 4
The adoption rates and average performance parameters projected by
the agencies for Alternative 4 are shown in Table IV-22 and Table IV-
23. Adoption rates for non-aero box and non-box trailers remain
unchanged from the proposed standards and they are not repeated in this
section. From the tables, it can be seen that the 2018 MY aerodynamic
technology adoption rates and the tire technology adoption rates for
all model years are identical to those presented previously for the
proposed standards. The aerodynamic projections for MY 2021 and MY 2024
in this accelerated alternative are the same as those projected for MY
2024 and MY 2027 of the proposed standards, but are applied three years
earlier. In this alternative, the 2021 MY adoption rates would continue
to apply for the partial-aero box trailers in 2024 and later model
years.
Table IV-22--Adoption Rates and Average Performance Parameters for the Long Box Trailers in Alternative 4
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Technology Long box dry vans Long box refrigerated vans
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Model year 2018 2021 2024 2018 2021 2024
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Aerodynamic Technologies: \a\
Bin I............................................... 5% .............. .............. 5% .............. ..............
Bin II.............................................. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. ..............
Bin III............................................. 30% .............. .............. 30% .............. ..............
Bin IV.............................................. 60% 25% .............. 60% 25% ..............
Bin V............................................... 5% 10% 10% 5% 10% 20%
Bin VI.............................................. .............. 65% 50% .............. 65% 60%
[[Page 40274]]
Bin VII............................................. .............. .............. 40% .............. .............. 20%
Bin VIII............................................ .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. ..............
Average Delta CDA (m2) a........................ 0.4 0.8 1.1 0.4 0.8 1.0
Trailer Tire Rolling Resistance:
Baseline tires...................................... 15 5 5 15 5 5
Level 1 tires....................................... 85 95 .............. 85 95 ..............
Level 2 tires....................................... .............. .............. 95 .............. .............. 95
Average CRR (kg/ton) a.......................... 5.2 5.1 4.8 5.2 5.1 4.8
Tire Inflation System:
ATI................................................. 85% 95% 95% 85% 95% 95%
Average ATI Reduction (%)a...................... 1.3% 1.4% 1.4% 1.3% 1.4% 1.4%
Weight Reduction (lbs):
Weight b............................................ .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. ..............
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Notes: A blank cell indicates a zero value.
a Combines adoption rates with performance levels shown in Table IV-8.
b This set of adoption rates did not apply weight reduction to meet the proposed standards for these trailers.
Table IV-23--Adoption Rates and Average Performance Parameters for the Short Box Trailers in Alternative 4
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Technology Short box dry vans Short box refrigerated vans
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Model Year 2018 2021 2024 2018 2021 2024
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Aerodynamic Technologies a
Bin I............................................... 100% .............. .............. 100% .............. ..............
Bin II.............................................. .............. 70% 30% .............. 70% 55%
Bin III............................................. .............. 30% 60% .............. 30% 40%
Bin IV.............................................. .............. .............. 10% .............. .............. 5%
Bin V............................................... .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. ..............
Bin VI.............................................. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. ..............
Bin VII............................................. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. ..............
Bin VIII............................................ .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. ..............
Average Delta CDA (m2) b........................ 0.4 0.8 1.1 0.4 0.8 1.0
Trailer Tire Rolling Resistance:
Baseline tires...................................... 15% 5% 5% 15% 5% 5%
Level 1 tires....................................... 85% 95% .............. 85% 95% ..............
Level 2 tires....................................... .............. .............. 95% .............. .............. 95%
Average CRR (kg/ton) b.......................... 5.2 5.1 4.8 5.2 5.1 4.8
Tire Inflation System:
ATI................................................. 85% 95% 95% 85% 95% 95%
Average ATI Reduction (%) b..................... 1.3% 1.4% 1.4% 1.3% 1.4% 1.4%
Weight Reduction (lbs):
Weight c............................................ .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. ..............
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Notes: A blank cell indicates a zero value.
a The majority of short box trailers are 28 feet in length. We recognize that they are often operated in tandem, which limits the technologies that can
be applied (for example, boat tails).
b Combines adoption rates with performance levels shown in Table IV-8.
c This set of adoption rates did not apply weight reduction to meet the proposed standards for these trailers.
(b) Derivation of the Standards for Alternative 4
Similar to the proposed standards of Section IV. D. (3) (d), the
agencies applied the technology performance values from Table IV-22 and
Table IV-23 as GEM inputs to derive the proposed standards for each
subcategory.
Table IV-24 shows the resulting standards for Alternative 4. Over
the three phases of the alternative, box trailers longer than 50 feet
would, on average, reduce their CO2 emissions and fuel
consumption by two percent, six percent and eight percent. Box trailers
50-foot and shorter would achieve reductions of two percent, three
percent, and four percent compared to the reference case. Partial-aero
box trailers would continue to be subject to the 2021 MY standards for
MY 2024 and later. The non-aero box and non-box trailers would meet the
same standards as shown in the proposed Alternative 3 and achieve the
same two and three percent benefits as shown in the proposed
alternative.
[[Page 40275]]
Table IV-24--Trailer CO2 and Fuel Consumption Standards for Box Trailers in Alternative 4
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Subcategory Dry van Refrigerated van
Model year ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Length Long Short Long Short
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2018-2020..................... EPA Standard.... 83 144 84 147
(CO2 Grams per
Ton-Mile).
Voluntary NHTSA 8.1532 14.1454 8.2515 14.4401
Standard.
(Gallons per
1,000 Ton-Mile).
2021-2023..................... EPA Standard.... 80 142 81 145
(CO2 Grams per
Ton-Mile).
NHTSA Standard.. 7.8585 13.9489 7.9568 14.2436
(Gallons per
1,000 Ton-Mile).
2024+......................... EPA Standard.... 77 140 80 144
(CO2 Grams per
Ton-Mile).
NHTSA Standard.. 7.5639 13.7525 7.8585 14.1454
(Gallons per
1,000 Ton-Mile).
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(c) Costs Associated With Alternative 4
A summary of the technology costs is included in Table IV-25 to
Table IV-27for MYs 2018, 2021 and 2024, with additional details
available in the draft RIA Chapter 2.12. Costs shown in the following
tables are for the specific model year indicated and are incremental to
the average reference case costs, which includes some level of adoption
of these technologies as shown in Table IV-10. Therefore, the
technology costs in the following tables reflect the average cost
expected for each of the indicated trailer classes. Note that these
costs do not represent actual costs for the individual components
because some fraction of the component costs has been subtracted to
reflect some use of these components in the reference case. For more on
the estimated technology costs exclusive of adoption rates, refer to
Chapter 2.12 of the draft RIA. These costs include indirect costs via
markups and reflect lower costs over time due to learning impacts. For
a description of the markups and learning impacts considered in this
analysis and how it impacts technology costs for other years, refer to
the draft RIA.
Table IV-25--Trailer Technology Incremental Costs in the 2018 Model Year for Alternative 4
[2012$]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
53-foot
53-foot dry refrigerated 28-foot dry Non-aero & non-
van van van box
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Aerodynamics.................................... $285 $285 $0 $0
Tires........................................... 65 65 78 185
Tire inflation system........................... 239 239 435 683
---------------------------------------------------------------
Total....................................... 588 588 514 868
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table IV-26--Trailer Technology Incremental Costs in the 2021 Model Year for Alternative 4
[2012$]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
53-foot
53-foot dry refrigerated 28-foot dry Non-aero & non-
van van van box
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Aerodynamics.................................... $908 $908 $641 $0
Tires........................................... 65 65 79 175
Tire inflation system........................... 234 234 426 632
---------------------------------------------------------------
Total....................................... 1,207 1,207 1,146 807
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table IV-27--Trailer Technology Incremental Costs in the 2024 Model Year for Alternative 4
[2012$]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
53-foot
53-foot dry refrigerated 28-foot dry Non-aero & non-
van van van box
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Aerodynamics.................................... 1,223 1,090 816 0
Tires........................................... 61 61 76 160
Tire inflation system........................... 220 220 412 578
---------------------------------------------------------------
Total....................................... 1,504 1,371 1,304 739
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
[[Page 40276]]
The agencies believe Alternative 4 has the potential to be the
maximum feasible and appropriate alternative. However, based on the
evidence currently before us, EPA and NHTSA have outstanding questions
regarding relative risks and benefits of Alternative 4 due to the
timeframe envisioned by that alternative. As discussed earlier, the
ability for manufacturers in this industry to broadly take the
necessary technical steps while becoming familiar with first-time
regulatory responsibilities may be significantly limited with three
fewer years of lead-time. As reinforced in the SBAR Panel Report, this
challenge would not be equal across the industry, often falling more
heavily on smaller trailer manufacturers.
The agencies request comment on the feasibility and costs for
trailer manufacturers to achieve the Alternative 4 standards by
applying advanced aerodynamic technologies with three years less lead-
time than Alternative 3 would provide. The agencies also request
comment on particular burdens that these aggressive adoption rates
could have on small business trailer manufacturers.
F. Trailer Standards: Compliance and Flexibilities
Under the proposed structure, trailer manufacturers would be
required to obtain a certificate of conformity from EPA before
introducing into commerce new trailers subject to the proposed new
trailer CO2 and fuel consumption standards. See CAA section
206(a). The certification process the agencies are proposing for
trailer manufacturers is very similar in its basic structure to the
process for the tractor program. This structure involves pre-
certification activities, the certification application and its
approval, and end-of-year reporting.
In this section, the agencies first describe how we developed
compliance equations based on the GEM vehicle simulation tool and the
general certification process, followed by a discussion of the proposed
test procedures for measuring the performance of tires and aerodynamic
technologies and how manufacturers would apply test results toward
compliance and certification. The section closes with discussions of
several other proposed certification and compliance provisions as well
as proposed provisions to provide manufacturers with compliance
flexibility.
(1) Trailer Compliance Using a GEM-Based Equation
The agencies are committed to introducing a compliance program for
trailer manufacturers that is straightforward, technically robust,
transparent, and that minimizes new administrative burdens on the
industry. As described earlier in this section and in Chapter 4 of the
draft RIA, GEM is a customized vehicle simulation model that EPA
developed for the Phase 1 program to relate measured aerodynamic and
tire performance values, as well as other parameters, to CO2
and fuel consumption without performing full-vehicle testing. As with
the Phase 1 and proposed Phase 2 tractor and vocational vehicle
programs, the proposed trailer program uses GEM in evaluating emissions
and fuel consumption in developing the proposed standards. However,
unlike the tractor and vocational vehicle programs, we are not
proposing to use GEM directly to demonstrate compliance with the
trailer standards. Instead, we have developed an equation based on GEM
that calculates CO2 and fuel consumption from performance
inputs, but without running the model.
For the proposed trailer program, the trailer characteristics that
a manufacturer would supply to the equation are aerodynamic
improvements (i.e., a change in the aerodynamic drag area, delta
CDA), tire rolling resistance (i.e., coefficient of rolling
resistance, CRR), the presence of an automatic tire
inflation (ATI) system, and the use of light-weight components from a
pre-determined list. The use of the equation would quantify the overall
performance of the trailer in terms of CO2 emissions and
fuel consumption on a per ton-mile basis.
Chapter 2.10.6 of the draft RIA provides a full a description of
the development and evaluation of the equation proposed for trailer
compliance. Equation IV-1 is a single linear regression curve that can
be used for all box trailers in this proposal. Unique constant values,
C1 through C4, are applied for each of the
trailer subcategories as shown in Table IV-28. Constant C5
is equal to 0.985 for any trailer that installs an ATI system
(accounting for the 1.5 percent reduction given for use of ATI) or 1.0
for trailers without ATI systems. This equation was found to accurately
reproduce the results of GEM for each of the four box van subcategories
and the agencies are proposing that trailer manufacturers use Equation
IV-1 when calculating CO2 for compliance. Manufacturers
would use a conversion of 10,180 grams of CO2 per gallon of
diesel to calculate the corresponding fuel consumption values for
compliance with NHTSA's regulations. See 40 CFR 1037.515 and 49 CFR
535.6.
y = [C1 + C2[middot](TRRL) +
C3[middot]([Delta]CDA) +
C4[middot](WR)][middot]C5 (IV-1)
Table IV-28--Constants for GEM-Based Trailer Compliance Equation
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trailer subcategory C1 C2 C3 C4
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Long Dry Van.................................... 77.4 1.7 -6.1 -0.001
Long Refrigerated Van........................... 78.3 1.8 -6.0 -0.001
Short Dry Van................................... 134.0 2.2 -10.5 -0.003
Short Refrigerated Van.......................... 136.3 2.4 -10.3 -0.003
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The constants for long vans apply for all dry or refrigerated vans
longer than 50-feet and the constants for short vans apply for all dry
or refrigerated vans 50-feet and shorter. These long and short van
constants are based on GEM-simulated tractors pulling 53-foot and solo
28-foot trailers, respectively. As a result, we are proposing that
aerodynamic testing to obtain a trailer's performance parameters for
Equation IV-1 be performed using consistent trailer sizes (i.e., all
lengths of short vans be tested as a solo 28-foot van, and all lengths
of long vans be tested as a 53-foot van). More information about
aerodynamic testing is provided in Section IV. F. (3).
(2) General Certification Process
Under the proposed process for certification, trailer manufacturers
would be required to apply to EPA for certification and would provide
performance test data (see 40 CFR 1037.205) in their applications.\242\
A
[[Page 40277]]
staff member from EPA's Compliance Division (in the Office of
Transportation and Air Quality) would be assigned to each trailer
manufacturer to help them through the compliance process. Although not
required, we recommend that manufacturers arrange to meet with the
agencies to discuss compliance plans and obtain any preliminary
approvals (e.g., appropriate test methods) before applying for
certification.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\242\ As with the tractor program, manufacturers would submit
their applications to EPA, which would then share them with NHTSA.
Obtaining an approved certificate of conformity from EPA is the
first step in complying with the NHTSA program.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trailer manufacturers would submit their applications through the
EPA VERIFY electronic database, and EPA would issue certificates based
on the information provided. At the end of the model year, trailer
manufacturers would submit an end-of-year report to the agencies to
complete their annual obligations.
The proposed EPA certification provisions also contain provisions
for applying to the NHTSA program. EPA and NHTSA would coordinate on
any enforcement action required.
(a) Preliminary Considerations for Compliance
Prior to submitting an application for a certificate, a
manufacturer would choose the technologies they plan to offer their
customers, obtain performance information for these technologies, and
identify any trailers in their production line that qualify for
exclusion from the program.\243\ Manufacturers that choose to perform
aerodynamic or tire testing would obtain approval of test methods and
perform preliminary testing as needed. During this time, the
manufacturer would also decide the strategy they intend to use for
compliance by identifying ``families'' for the trailers they produce. A
family is a grouping of similar products that would all be subject to
the same standard and covered by a single certificate.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\243\ Trailers that meet the qualifications for exclusion do not
require a certificate of conformity and manufacturers do not have to
submit an application to EPA for these trailers.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
At its simplest, the program would allow all products in each of
the trailer subcategories to be certified as separate families. That
is, long box dry vans, short box dry vans, long refrigerated vans,
short refrigerated vans, non-box trailers, partial-aero trailers (long
and short box, dry and refrigerated vans), and non-aero trailers, could
each be certified as separate trailer families. If a manufacturer
chooses this approach, all products within a family would need to meet
or do better than the standards for that trailer subcategory. This is
not to say that, for example, every long box dry van model would need
to have identical technologies like skirts, tires, and tire inflation
systems, but that every model in that family would need to have a
combination of technologies that had performance representative of
testing demonstrated for that family. (Because the manufacturer would
not be using averaging provisions, a trailer that ``over-complied''
could not offset a trailer that did not meet that family's emission
limit).
If a trailer manufacturer wishes to take advantage of the proposed
averaging provisions, it could divide the trailer models in each of the
standard box trailer categories (i.e., not including the non-box
trailer or non-aero box trailer categories\244\) into subfamilies. Each
subfamily could be a grouping of trailers that have with similar
performance levels, even if they use different technologies. We call
the performance levels for each subfamily as ``Family Emission Limits''
(FELs). A long box dry van manufacturer could choose, for example, to
create two or more subfamilies in its long box dry van family. Trailers
in one or more of these subfamilies could be allowed to under-comply
with the standard (e.g., if the manufacturer chose not to apply ATI or
chose tires with higher rolling resistance levels) as long as the
performance of the other subfamilies over-comply with the standard
(e.g., if the manufacturer applied higher-performing skirts) such that
the average of all of the subfamilies' FELs met or did better than the
stringency for that family on a production-weighted basis. Section
IV.F.6.a below further discusses how the proposed averaging program
would function for any such trailer subfamilies.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\244\ The agencies are proposing that manufacturers implement
100 percent of their non-box and special purpose box trailers with
automatic tire inflation systems and tires meeting the specified
rolling resistance levels. As a result, averaging provisions do not
apply to these trailer subcategories.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
b) Submitting a Certification Application and Request for a Certificate
to EPA
Once the preliminary steps are completed, the manufacturer can
prepare and submit applications to EPA for certificate of conformity
for each of its trailer families. The contents of the application are
specified in 40 CFR 1037.205, though not all items listed in the
regulation are applicable to each trailer manufacturer.
For the early years of the program (i.e., 2018 through 2020), the
application must specify whether the trailer manufacturer is opting
into the NHTSA voluntary program to ensure the information is
transferred between the agencies. It must also include a description of
the emission controls that a manufacturer intends to offer. These
emission controls could include aerodynamic features, tire models, tire
inflation systems or components that qualify for weight reduction.
Basic information about labeling, warranty, and recommended maintenance
should also be included the application (see Section IV.F.5 for more
information).
The manufacturer would also provide a summary of the plans to
comply with the standard. This information would include a description
of the trailer family and subfamilies (if applicable) covered by the
certificate and projected sales of its products. Manufacturers that do
not participate in averaging would include information on the lowest
level of CO2 and fuel consumption performance offered in the
trailer family. Manufacturers that choose to average within their
families would include performance information for the projected
highest production trailer configuration, as well as the lowest and the
highest performing configurations within that trailer family.
(c) End-of-Year Obligations
After the end of each year, all manufacturers would need to submit
a report to the agencies presenting production-related data for that
year (see 40 CFR 1037.250 and 49 CFR 535.8). In addition, manufacturers
participating in the averaging program would submit an end-of-year
report containing both emissions and fuel consumption information for
both agencies. This report would include the year's final compliance
data (as calculated using the compliance equation) and actual sales in
order to demonstrate that the trailers either met the standards for
that year or that the manufacturer generated a deficit to be reconciled
within the next three years under the averaging provisions (see 40 CFR
1037.730, 40 CFR 1037.745, and 49 CFR 535.7). All certifying
manufacturers would need to maintain records of all the data and
information required to be supplied to EPA and NHTSA for eight years.
(3) Trailer Certification Test Protocols
The Clean Air Act specifies that compliance with emission standards
for motor vehicles be demonstrated using emission test data (see CAA
section 206(a) and (b)). The Act does not require the use of specific
technologies or designs. The agencies are proposing that the compliance
equation shown in
[[Page 40278]]
Section IV. F. (1) function as the official ``test procedure'' for
quantifying CO2 and fuel consumption performance for trailer
compliance and certification (as opposed to GEM, which serves this
function in the tractor and vocational vehicle programs). Manufacturers
would insert performance information from the trailer technologies
applied into the equation in order to calculate their impact on overall
trailer performance. The agencies are proposing to assign performance
levels to ATI systems and specific weight reduction values to pre-
determined component substitutions. Aerodynamic and tire rolling
resistance performance would be obtained by the trailer manufacturers.
The following sections describe the approved performance tests for tire
rolling resistance and aerodynamic drag. Non-box and non-aero box
trailers have tire requirements only. Manufacturers of these trailers
will only need to obtain results from the tire performance tests. Long
and short box trailers are expected to use aerodynamic and tire
technologies to meet the proposed standards and will need to obtain
test results from both procedures. See generally proposed 40 CFR part
1037, subpart F, for full description of the proposed performance
tests, and see in particular proposed section 40 CFR 1037.515.
(a) Trailer Tire Performance Testing
Under Phase 1, tractor and vocational chassis manufacturers are
required to input the tire rolling resistance coefficient into GEM and
the agencies adopted the provisions in ISO 28580:2009(E) \245\ to
determine the rolling resistance of tires. As described in 40 CFR
1037.520(c), this measured value, expressed as CRR, is
required to be the result of at least three repeat measurements of
three different tires of a given design, giving a total of at least
nine data points. Manufacturers specify a CRR value for GEM
that may not be lower than the average of these nine results. Tire
rolling resistance may be determined by either the vehicle or tire
manufacturer. In the latter case, the tire manufacturer would provide a
signed statement confirming that it conducted testing in accordance
with this part.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\245\ See https://www.iso.org/iso/iso_catalogue/catalogue_tc/catalogue_detail.htm?csnumber=44770.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Similar to the tractor program, we propose to extend the Phase 1
testing provisions for tire rolling resistance to apply to the Phase 2
box trailer program, only without requiring the use of GEM. The average
rolling resistance value obtained from this test would be used to
specify the tire rolling resistance level (TRRL) for the trailer tires
in the compliance equation. Based on the current practice for tractors,
we expect the trailer manufacturers to obtain these data from tire
manufacturers. We welcome comments regarding the proposed tire testing
provisions as they relate to the proposed trailer program.
For non-box trailers, the agencies are proposing to use the same
test methods to evaluate tires, but are proposing to apply a single
threshold standard instead of inputting the rolling resistance value
into the GEM equation. Manufacturers of non-box trailers would comply
with the rolling resistance standard by using tires with rolling
resistance below the threshold. From the perspective of the trailer
manufacturer, this would be equivalent to a design standard for the
trailers, even though the standard would be expressed as a performance
standard for the tires.
The agencies are considering adopting a program for tire
manufacturers similar to the provision described in Section IV. F. (3)
(b)(iv) for aerodynamic device manufacturers. For aerodynamic devices,
the agencies are proposing to allow device manufacturers to seek
preliminary approval of the performance of their devices. Device
manufacturers would perform the required testing of their device and
submit the performance results directly to EPA. We are requesting
comment on a similar provision for tires. Tire manufacturers could
submit their test data directly to EPA to show they meet the rolling
resistance requirements, and trailer manufacturers that choose to use
approved tires would merely indicate that in their the certification
applications.
EPA is also considering adopting regulatory text addressing
obligations for tire manufacturers. We note that CAA section 207(c)(1)
requires ``the manufacturer'' to remedy certain in-use problems and
does not limit this responsibility to certificate holders. The remedy
process is generally called recall, and the regulations for this
process are in 40 CFR part 1068, subpart F. In the case of in-use
problems with trailer tires, EPA is requesting comment on adding
regulatory text that would explicitly apply these provisions to tire
manufacturers. In other words, if EPA determines that tires on
certified trailers do not conform to the regulations in actual use,
should EPA require the tire manufacturer to recall and replace the
nonconforming tires? \246\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\246\ EPA is considering such a requirement for trailer tire
manufacturers, but not at this time for manufacturers of other
heavy-duty vehicle components. This is because, for the trailer
sector, we believe that the small business trailer manufacturers
that make up a large fraction of companies in this industry could be
uniquely challenged if they needed to recall trailers to replace
tires.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
(b) Trailer Aerodynamic Performance Testing
Our proposed trailer aerodynamic test procedures are based on the
current and proposed tractor procedures for testing aerodynamic control
devices, including coastdown, constant speed, wind tunnel, and
computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling. The purpose of the tests
is to establish an estimate of the aerodynamic drag experienced by a
tractor-trailer vehicle in real-world operation. In the tractor
program, the resulting CdA value represents the aerodynamic drag of a
tested tractor assumed to be pulling a specified standard trailer. In
the proposed trailer program, the CDA value used in the
compliance equation would represent the tested trailer pulled by a
standard tractor.
To minimize the number of tests required, the agencies are
proposing that devices for long trailers be evaluated based on 53-foot
trailers, and that devices for short trailers be evaluated based on 28-
foot trailers. Details of the test procedures can be found in 40 CFR
1037.525 and a discussion of EPA's aerodynamic testing program as it
relates to the proposed trailer program are provided in the draft RIA
Chapter 3.2. The following sections outline the testing requirements
proposed for the long term trailer program, as well as simpler testing
provisions that would apply in the nearer term.
(i) A to B Testing for Trailer Aerodynamic Performance
A key difference between the proposed tractor and trailer programs
is that while the tractor procedures provide a direct measurement of an
absolute CDA value for each tractor model, the agencies
expect a majority of the aerodynamic improvements for trailers will be
accomplished by adding bolt-on technologies. As a result, we are
proposing to evaluate the aerodynamic improvements for trailers by
measuring a change in CDA (delta CDA) relative to
a baseline. Specifically, we propose that the trailer tests be
performed as ``A to B'' tests, comparing the aerodynamic performance of
a tractor-trailer without a trailer aerodynamic device to one with the
device installed. See Draft RIA Chapter 2.10 for more information on
this approach.
As mentioned in Section IV. F. (1) that is consistent with the
compliance
[[Page 40279]]
equations. See 40 CFR 1037.525 and 49 CFR 535.6. We believe that most
trailers longer than 50 feet with comparable technologies would perform
similarly in aerodynamic testing. We also recognize that devices used
on some lengths of trailers in the short-van category may perform
differently than those devices perform when used on a representative
28-foot test trailer.
The agencies are proposing that manufacturers have some flexibility
in the devices (or packages of devices) that they use with box vans
that have lengths different than those of the trailers on which the
devices/packages were tested (i.e., trailers not 53 or 28 feet long).
In such situations, a manufacturer could use devices that they believe
would be more appropriate for the length of the trailer they are
producing, consistent with good engineering judgement. For example,
they could use longer or shorter side skirts than those tested on 53-
or 28-foot trailers. No additional testing would be required in order
to validate the appropriateness of using the alternate devices on these
trailers.
On average, we believe that testing of a device on a 28-foot test
trailer would provide a conservative evaluation of the performance of
that device on other lengths of short box trailers. We believe that the
proposed compliance approach would effectively represent the
performance of such devices on the majority of short van trailers, yet
would limit the number of trailers a manufacturer would need to track
and evaluate. We request comment, including data where possible, on
additional approaches that could be used to address this issue of
varying performance for devices across the range of short van lengths.
Commenters supporting an allowance or requirement to test devices on
short van trailers of other lengths than 28 feet are encouraged to also
address how the agencies should consider such a provision in setting
the levels of the standards, as well as how any additional compliance
complexity would be justified.
The agencies note that it was relatively straightforward in Phase 1
to establish a standard trailer with enough specificity to ensure
consistent testing of tractors, since there are relatively small
differences in aerodynamic performance of base-model dry van trailers.
However, as discussed in Chapter 2.10 of the draft RIA, small
differences in tractor design can have a significant impact on overall
tractor-trailer aerodynamic performance. An advantage of an A to B test
approach for trailers is that many of the differences in tractor design
are canceled-out, which allows a variety of standard tractors to be
used in testing without compromising the evaluation of the trailer
aerodynamic technology. Thus, the relative approach does not require
the agencies to precisely specify a standard tractor, nor does it
require trailer manufacturers to purchase, modify or retain a specific
tractor model in order to evaluate their trailers.
In essence, an A to B test is a set of tests: one test of a
baseline tractor-trailer with zero trailer aerodynamic technologies
(A), and one test that includes the aerodynamic devices to be tested
(B). However, because an A test would relate to a B test only with
respect to the test method and the test trailer length, one A test
could be used for many different B tests. This type of testing would
result in a delta CDA value instead of an absolute
CDA value. For the trailer program, the vehicle
configuration in the A test would include a standard tractor that meets
specified characteristics,\247\ and a manufacturer's baseline trailer
with no aerodynamic improvements. The entity conducting the testing
(e.g., the trailer manufacturer or the trailer aerodynamic device
manufacturer, as discussed below) would perform the test for this
configuration according to the procedures in 40 CFR 1037.525 and repeat
the test for the B configuration, which includes the trailer
aerodynamic package/device(s) being tested. The delta CDA
value for that trailer with that device would be the difference between
the CDA values obtained in the A and B tests.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\247\ As explained in Section IV. F. (3) (b)(ii), the standard
tractor in GEM consists of a high roof sleeper cab for box trailers
longer than 50 feet and a high roof day cab for box trailers 50 feet
and shorter.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
In the event that a trailer manufacturer makes major changes to the
aerodynamic design of its trailer in lieu of installing add-on devices,
trailer manufacturers would use the same baseline trailer for the A
configuration as would be used for bolt-on features. In both cases, the
baseline trailer would be a manufacturer's standard box trailer. Thus,
the manufacturer of a redesigned trailer would get full credit for any
aerodynamic improvements it made. We request comment on this issue. In
addition, we request comment on how the program could handle a
situation in which a manufacturer made aerodynamic design changes to a
trailer between 28 and 50 feet, which as proposed could only be
compared to a 28-foot standard trailer.
The agencies are proposing to determine the delta CDA
for trailer aerodynamics using the zero-yaw (or head-on wind) values.
The agencies are not proposing a reference method (i.e., the coastdown
procedure in the tractor program). Instead, we are proposing to allow
manufacturers to perform any of the proposed test procedures to
establish a delta CDA. Since the proposed coastdown and
constant speed procedures include wind restrictions, we are proposing
to only accept the zero-yaw values from aerodynamic evaluation
techniques that are capable of measuring drag at multiple yaw angles
(e.g., wind tunnels and CFD) to allow cross-method comparison and
certification. The agencies welcome comment on the pros and cons of
exclusive use of zero-yaw data from trailer aerodynamic compliance
testing. We recognize that the benefits of aerodynamic devices can be
higher when measured considering wind from other yaw angles. We request
comment on the possibility of allowing manufacturers to use wind-
averaged results for compliance if they choose to test using procedures
that provide wind-averaged values. Chapter 2.10 of the draft RIA
compares zero-yaw and wind-averaged results from EPA's wind tunnel
testing. We request that commenters provide test data to support any
preference for compliance test results. We also request comments on
strategies that could be used to maintain consistency with other
methods that cannot provide wind-averaged results.
(ii) Standard Tractor for Aerodynamic Testing in the Proposed Trailer
Program
We propose that the proposed compliance equation, based on GEM, be
used to determine compliance with the trailer standards. Our discussion
of the feasibility of our proposed standards (Section IV. D. (3) (a))
includes a description of the tractor-trailer vehicle used in GEM. We
recognize the impact of the tractor and want to maintain consistency
with GEM, but for the trailer program it is not necessary to address
all aspects (e.g., the engine) of the tractor, because, as explained
above, the impact of many of its features will be canceled-out with the
use of an A to B test strategy. However, some aerodynamic design
features of the tractor can influence the performance of trailer
aerodynamic technologies and we want to ensure a level of consistency
between tests of different trailer manufacturers.
The agencies believe the A to B test strategy would reduce the
degree of precision with which the standard tractor needs to be
specified. Instead of identifying a specific make and model of a
tractor to be used over the entire duration of the program, the
agencies
[[Page 40280]]
would instead identify key characteristics of a standard tractor. EPA's
trailer testing program investigated the impact of tractor aerodynamics
on the performance of trailer aerodynamic technologies, as mentioned in
Chapter 2.10 of the draft RIA. In order to maintain a minimal level of
performance, we are proposing that tractors used in trailer aerodynamic
tests meet Phase 2 Bin III or better tractor requirements (see Section
III.D.). We believe the majority of tractors in the U.S. trucking fleet
will be Bin III or better in the timeframe of this rulemaking, and
trailer manufacturers have the option to choose higher-performing
tractors in later years as tractor technology improves. The standard
tractor for long-box trailers is a Class 8 high-roof sleeper cab. The
standard tractor for short box trailers is a Class 8 high roof day cab.
Trailer manufacturers are free to choose any standard tractor that
meets these criteria in their aerodynamic performance testing. See 40
CFR 1037.501.
(iii) Bins for Aerodynamic Performance
As mentioned in Section IV. D. (1) (a), the agencies are proposing
aerodynamic bins to account for testing variability and to provide
consistency in the performance values used for compliance. These bins
were developed in terms of delta CDA ranges, and designed to
be broad enough to cover the range of uncertainty seen in our
aerodynamic testing program in terms of test-to-test variability as
well as variability due to differences in test method, tractor models,
trailer models and device models.
As discussed in Chapter 2.10 of the draft RIA, measured drag
coefficients and drag areas vary depending on the test method used. In
general, values measured using wind tunnels and CFD tend to be lower
than values measured using the coastdown method. The Phase 1 and
proposed Phase 2 tractor program use coastdown testing as the reference
test method, and the agencies require tractor manufacturers to perform
at least one test using that method to establish a correction factor
(called ``Falt,aero'') to apply to any of the alternative
test methods. For simplicity, the agencies are not proposing a similar
approach for trailers. We believe that the size of the bins and the use
of change in CDA (as opposed to absolute values) would
minimize the significance of this variability. However, we recognize
that this could be a problem in instances where a manufacturer using a
method other than coastdown produces a trailer with performance near
the upper end of a bin. In such cases, it is possible that adjusting
for methodological differences using a Falt,aero would allow
the manufacturer to achieve a more stringent bin.
We request comment on the proposed approach for evaluating
performance of trailers and establishing bins for trailer compliance.
We specifically request that commenters address the need for an
aerodynamic reference test for trailer performance or additional
strategies for normalizing test methods. For example, would it be
appropriate to allow all manufacturers using wind tunnel or CFD methods
to apply an assigned Falt,aero of 1.10, or another value, to
their results?
Table IV-29--Aerodynamic Bins Used To Determine Inputs for Trailer
Certification
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Average
delta CDA
Delta CDA measured in testing Bin input for
gem
------------------------------------------------------------------------
0.09............................... Bin I................. 0.0
0.10-0.19.......................... Bin II................ 0.1
0.20-0.39.......................... Bin III............... 0.3
0.40-0.59.......................... Bin IV................ 0.5
0.60-0.79.......................... Bin V................. 0.7
0.80-1.19.......................... Bin VI................ 1.0
1.20-1.59.......................... Bin VII............... 1.4
[gteqt] 1.6........................ Bin VIII.............. 1.8
------------------------------------------------------------------------
A manufacturer that wished to perform testing would first identify
a standard tractor (according to 40 CFR 1037.525) and a representative
baseline trailer with no aerodynamic features, then perform the A to B
tests with and without aerodynamic devices and obtain a delta
CDA value. The manufacturer would use Table IV-29 to
determine the appropriate bin based on their delta CDA. Each
bin has a corresponding average delta CDA value which is the
value manufacturers insert into the compliance equation.
(iv) Aerodynamic Device Testing Alternative
The agencies recognize that much of the trailer manufacturing
industry may have little experience with aerodynamic performance
testing. As such, we are proposing an alternative compliance option
that we believe will minimize the testing burden for trailer
manufacturers, meet the requirements of the Clean Air Act and of EISA,
and provide reasonable assurance that the anticipated CO2
and fuel consumption benefits of the program will be realized in real-
world operation.
The agencies are proposing to allow trailer aerodynamic device
manufacturers to seek preliminary approval of the performance of their
devices (or combinations of devices) based on the same performance
tests described previously in Section IV. F. (3) (b)(i). Device
manufacturers would perform the required A to B testing of their
device(s) on a trailer that meets the requirements specified in 40 CFR
1037.211 and 1037.525 and submit the performance results, in terms of
delta CDA, directly to EPA.\248\ Trailer manufacturers could
then choose to use these devices and apply their performance levels in
the certification application for their trailer families. This approach
would provide an opportunity for trailer manufacturers to choose
technologies with pre-approved test data for installation on their new
trailers without performing their own aerodynamic testing. We note that
this proposed testing alternative is consistent with recommendations of
the SBAR Panel. The Panel Report is summarized below in Section XV.D.
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\248\ Note that in the event a device manufacturer chooses to
submit such data to EPA, it could incur liability for causing a
regulated entity to commit a prohibited act. See 40 CFR 1068.101(c).
This same potential liability exists with respect to information
provided by a device manufacturer directly to a trailer
manufacturer.
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If trailer manufacturers wish to use multiple devices with pre-
approved test data, the proposed program provides a process for
combining the effects of multiple devices to determine an appropriate
delta CDA value for compliance. More specifically, such
manufacturers would fully count the technology with largest delta
CDA value, discount the second by 10 percent, and discount
each of the remaining additional technologies by 20 percent.\249\ This
discounting would acknowledge the complex interactions among individual
aerodynamic devices and would provide a conservative value for the
impact of the combined devices. For example, a manufacturer applying
three separately tested devices with delta CDA values of
0.40, 0.30, and 0.10 would calculate the combined delta CDA
as:
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\249\ A trailer manufacturer would need to use good engineering
judgement in combining devices for compliance in order to avoid
combinations that are not intended to work together (e.g., both a
side skirt and an under-body device).
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Delta CDA = 0.40 + 0.90*0.30 + 0.80*0.10 = 0.75 m\2\
In addition, the agencies believe that discounting the delta
CDA values of individually-tested devices used as a
combination would provide a modest incentive for trailer or device
manufacturers to test and get EPA pre-approval of the combination as an
aerodynamic system for compliance. We propose that device manufacturers
be
[[Page 40281]]
allowed to test and receive EPA pre-approval for combinations of
devices, and that trailer manufacturers that wish to use those specific
combinations be allowed to use the results from the tests of the
combined devices.
The agencies note that many of the largest box trailer
manufacturers are already performing aerodynamic test procedures to
some extent, and the agencies expect other box trailer manufacturers
will increasingly be capable of performing these tests as the program
progresses.
The proposed alternative testing approach is intended to allow
trailer manufacturers to focus on and become familiar with the
certification process in the early years of the program and, if they
wish, begin to perform testing in the later years, when it may be more
appropriate for their individual companies. This approach would not
preclude trailer manufacturers from performing their own testing at any
time, even if the technologies they wish to install are already pre-
approved. For example, a manufacturer that believed a specific trailer
actually performed in a more synergistic manner with a given device
than the device's pre-approved delta CDA value suggested
could perform its own testing and submit the results to EPA for
certification. The process to obtain approval is outlined in the
proposed 40 CFR 1037.211.
(4) Use of the Compliance Equation for Trailer Compliance
The agencies are proposing standards for non-box and non-aero box
trailers requiring the use of tires with rolling resistance levels at
or below a threshold, and on ATI systems. As part of their
certification application, manufacturers of these trailers would submit
their tire rolling resistance levels and a description of their ATI
system(s) to EPA. As long as the trailer manufacturer certifies that
they will install the appropriate tires and ATI systems on all of their
trailers, the agencies do not believe it is necessary to require these
trailer manufacturers to use the equation and report the results of the
model to the agencies to demonstrate compliance.
Box trailer manufacturers who apply more than tire technologies to
meet the standards would use the compliance equation to combine the
effects of these technologies and quantify the overall performance of
the vehicle to demonstrate compliance. Trailer manufacturers would
obtain delta CDA and tire rolling resistance values from
testing (either from their own testing or testing performed by another
entity as described previously) and note if they installed a qualifying
automatic tire inflation system or made a component substitution that
qualifies for weight reduction. Manufacturers would directly apply the
delta CDA and TRRL values into the equation, which would
also recognize the use of an ATI system, applying a 1.5 percent
reduction in CO2 and fuel consumption. Qualifying components
for weight reduction can be found in 40 CFR 1037.515(d). Manufacturers
that substitute one or more of these components on their box trailers
would sum the weight reductions assigned to each component and enter
that total into the equation. The equation would also account for the
use of weight-reducing components, assigning one-third of that reduced
weight to increase the payload and the remaining weight reduction to
reduce the overall weight of the assumed vehicle.
For this proposal, we are requiring that the equation be used if
the manufacturer is to take advantage of the agencies' proposed
averaging provisions. Prior to submitting a certificate application,
manufacturers would decide which technologies to make available for
their customers and use the equation to determine the range performance
of the packages they will offer. Manufacturers would supply these
results from the equation in their certificate application and those
manufacturers that wish to perform averaging would continue to
calculate emissions (and fuel consumption) with the equation throughout
the model year and keep records of the results for each trailer package
sold. As described in Section IV.F.2.c above, at the end of the year,
manufacturers would submit two reports. One report would include their
production volumes for each configuration. The second report, required
for manufacturers using averaging, would summarize the families and
subfamilies, and CO2 emissions and fuel consumption results
from the equation for all of the trailer configurations they
build.\250\
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\250\ We are not proposing to allow manufacturers to ``bank''
credits to the following year if a manufacturer over-complies on
average for a given model year. We are proposing to allow
manufacturers to generate temporary deficits if they under-comply on
average. These deficits would need to be resolved within three model
years. See Section IV.F.7.a below and 40 CFR 1037.250, 40 CFR
1037.730, and 49 CFR 535.7.
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Box trailer manufacturers that do not participate in averaging
would also use the compliance equation to ensure that all of the
trailer configurations they offer would meet the standard for the given
model year. These calculations using the equation could be performed by
the manufacturer prior to submitting a certificate application, but it
is not necessary for the manufacturer to continue to calculate
emissions and fuel consumption throughout the model year unless a new
technology package is offered. These manufacturers would submit a
single end-of-year report that would include their production volumes
and confirmation that all of their trailers applied the technology
packages outlined in their application.
(5) Additional Certification and Compliance Provisions
(a) Trailer Useful Life
Section 202(a)(1) of the CAA specifies that EPA is to propose
emission standards that are applicable for the ``useful life'' of the
vehicle. NHTSA also proposes to adopt EPA's useful life requirements
for trailers to ensure manufacturers consider in the design process the
need for fuel efficiency standards to apply for the same duration and
mileage as EPA standards. Based on our own research and discussions
with trailer manufacturers, EPA and NHTSA are proposing a regulatory
useful life value for trailers of 10 years. This useful life represents
the average duration of the initial use of trailers, before they are
moved into less rigorous (e.g., limited use or storage) duty. We note
that the useful life value is 10 years for other heavy-duty vehicles.
However, unlike the other vehicles, we are not proposing to set a mile
value for trailers because we do not require odometers for trailers.
Thus, we propose that trailer manufacturers be responsible for
meeting the CO2 emissions and fuel consumption standards for
10 years after the trailer is produced. We believe that manufacturers
would be able to demonstrate at certification that their trailers will
comply for the useful life of the trailers without durability testing.
The aerodynamic technologies that we expect manufacturers to use to
comply with the proposed standards, including side skirts and boat
tails, are designed to continue to provide their full potential benefit
indefinitely as long as no serious damage occurs. See also Section
IV.C.6 above describing why we are not proposing separate in-use
standards.
Regarding trailer tires, we recognize that the original lower
rolling resistance tires will wear over time and will be replaced
several times during the useful life of a trailer, either with new or
retreaded tires. As with the Phase 1 tractor program, to help ensure
that trailer owners have sufficient knowledge of which replacement
tires to purchase in order to retain the as-certified emission and fuel
consumption
[[Page 40282]]
performance of their trailer for its useful life, we are proposing to
require that trailer manufacturers supply adequate information in the
owner's manual to allow the trailer owner to purchase replacement tires
meeting or exceeding the rolling resistance performance of the original
equipment tires. We believe that the favorable fuel consumption benefit
of continued use of LRR tires would generally result in proper
replacements throughout the 10-year useful life. Finally, we are
requiring that ATI systems remain effective for at least the 10 year
useful life, although some servicing may be necessary. See the
maintenance discussion in Section IV.D.4.e.
(b) Emission Control Labels
Historically, EPA-certified vehicles are required to have a
permanent emission control label affixed to the vehicle. The label
facilitates the identification of the vehicle as a certified vehicle.
For the trailer program, EPA proposes that the labels include the same
basic information as we are proposing to require for tractor labels.
For trailers, this information would include the manufacturer, a
trailer identifier such as the Vehicle Identification Number, the
trailer family and regulatory subcategory, the date of manufacture, and
compliance statements. Although the proposed Phase 2 label for tractors
would not include emission control system identifiers (as previously
required for tractors in the Phase 1 program in 40 CFR 1037.135(c)(6)),
we are proposing that these identifiers be included in the trailer
labels. As for tractors, we would require manufacturers to maintain
records that would allow us to verify that an individual trailer was in
its certified configuration.
(c) Warranty
Section 207 of the CAA requires manufacturers to warrant their
products to be free from defects that would otherwise cause non-
compliance with emission standards. For purposes of the proposed
trailer program, EPA would require trailer manufacturers to warrant all
components that form the basis of the certification to the
CO2 emission standards. The emission-related warranty would
cover all aerodynamic devices, lower rolling resistance tires,
automatic tire inflation systems, and other components that may be
included in the certification application.
The trailer manufacturer would need to warrant that these
components and systems are designed to remain functional for the
warranty period. Based on the historical practice of requiring
emissions warranties to apply for half of the useful life, we propose
that the warranty period for trailers be 5 years for everything except
tires. For trailer tires, we propose to apply a warranty period of 1
year. Manufacturers could offer a more generous warranty if they chose;
however the emissions related warranty may not be shorter than any
other warranty offered without charge for the vehicle. If aftermarket
components were installed (unrelated to emissions performance) that
offer a longer warranty, this would not impact emission related
warranty obligations of the vehicle manufacturer. NHTSA is not
proposing any warranty requirements relating to its trailer fuel
consumption program.
At the time of certification, manufacturers would need to supply a
copy of the warranty statement that they would supply to the end
customer. This document would outline what is covered under the GHG
emissions related warranty as well as the duration of coverage.
Customers would also have clear access to the terms of the warranty,
the repair network, and the process for obtaining warranty service.
(d) Maintenance
In general, EPA requires that vehicle manufacturers specify
maintenance schedules to keep their product in compliance with emission
standards throughout the useful life of the vehicle (CAA section 207).
For trailers, such maintenance could include fairing adjustments or
service to ATI systems. However, EPA believes that any such maintenance
is likely to be performed by operators to maintain the fuel savings of
the components, and we are not proposing that trailer manufacturers be
required submit a maintenance schedule for these components as part of
its application for certification.
Since low rolling resistance tires are key emission control
components under this program, and will likely require replacement at
multiple points within the life of a vehicle, it is important to
clarify how tires would fit into the emission-related maintenance
requirements. Although the agencies encourage the exclusive use of LRR
tires throughout the life of trailers vehicles, we do not propose to
hold trailer manufacturers responsible for the actions of operators. We
do not see this as problematic because we believe that trailer
operators have a genuine financial motivation for ensuring their
vehicles are as fuel efficient as possible, which includes purchasing
LRR replacement tires. Therefore, as mentioned in Section IV.F.5.a
above, to help ensure that trailer owners have sufficient knowledge of
which replacement tires to purchase in order to retain the as-certified
emission and fuel consumption performance of their trailer, we are
proposing to require that trailer manufacturers supply adequate
information in the owner's manual to allow the trailer owner to
purchase tires meeting or exceeding the rolling resistance performance
of the original equipment tires. We would require that these
instructions be submitted to EPA as part of the application for
certification.
(e) Post-Useful Life Modifications
Under 40 CFR part 1037, EPA generally prohibits for any person from
removing or rendering inoperative any emission control device installed
to comply with the requirements of 40 CFR part 1037. However, in 40 CFR
1037.655 EPA clarifies that certain vehicle modifications are allowed
after a vehicle reaches the end of its regulatory useful life. EPA is
proposing for this section to apply trailers, since it applies to all
vehicles subject to 40 CFR part 1037, and requests comment on it.
Generally, this section clarifies that owners may modify a vehicle
for the purpose of reducing emissions, provided they have a reasonable
technical basis for knowing that such modification will not increase
emissions of any other pollutant. In the case of trailers, this
essentially requires a trailer owner to have information that would
lead an engineer or other person familiar with trailer design and
function to reasonably believe that the modifications will not increase
emissions of any regulated pollutant. Thus, this provision does not
provide a blanket allowance for modifications after the useful life.
This section does not apply with respect to modifications that
occur within the useful life period, other than to note that many such
modifications to the vehicle during the useful life are presumed to
violate 42 U.S.C. 7522(a)(3)(A). EPA notes, however, that this is
merely a presumption, and would not prohibit modifications during the
useful life where the owner clearly has a reasonable technical basis
for knowing the modifications would not cause the vehicle to exceed any
applicable standard.
(6) Flexibilities
The trailer program that the agencies are proposing incorporates a
number of provisions that would have the effect of providing
flexibility and easing the compliance burden on trailer manufacturers
while maintaining the
[[Page 40283]]
expected CO2 and fuel consumption benefits of the program.
Among these is the basic approach we used in setting the proposed
standards, including the staged phase-in of the standards, which would
gradually increase the CO2 and fuel consumption reductions
that manufacturers would need to achieve over time as they also
increase their experience with the program. As described in the general
certification discussion above (Section IV.F.2), another proposed
provision would allow trailer manufacturers to designate broad trailer
families that would aggregate several models with similar technologies
or performance, thus potentially limiting the number of families and
the associated family-level compliance requirements.
In addition to these provisions inherent to the proposed trailer
program, the agencies are proposing additional options for
certification that we believe would be very valuable to many trailer
manufacturers. One of these is the proposed process for component
manufacturers to submit test data directly to EPA for review by the
agencies in advance of formal certification, allowing a trailer
manufacturer to reduce the amount of testing needed to demonstrate
compliance or avoid it altogether. See Section IV.F.4 above.
(a) Proposed Averaging Provisions
The agencies are also proposing a limited averaging program as a
part of the trailer compliance process for box trailers. This program
would be similar to the Phase 1 averaging program for other sectors,
but would be narrower in scope to reflect the unique competitive
aspects of the trailer market. The trailer manufacturing industry is
very competitive, and manufacturers must be highly responsive to their
customers' diverse demands. Compared to other industry sectors, this
reality can limit the value of the flexibility that averaging could
provide to trailer manufacturers, since they can have little control
over what kinds of trailer models their customers demand and thus
limited ability to manage the mix and volume of different products. In
addition, the majority of trailer manufacturers have very few basic
trailer models to offer, potentially putting them at a competitive
disadvantage to the small number of larger companies that would be in a
position to meet market demands that the smaller companies could not.
For example, one of the larger, more diverse manufacturers could
potentially supply a customer with trailers that had few if any
aerodynamic features, while offsetting this part of their business with
over-complying trailers that they were able to sell to another
customer; many smaller companies with limited product offerings might
not be able to compete for those customers.
Although we recognize that there might be potential negative
impacts on at least some trailer manufacturers of an averaging program,
we believe that there may be overall value to such a program. We
propose that full-aero box trailer manufacturers may optionally comply
with their standards on average for a trailer family in any given model
year. We are not proposing to allow partial-aero box trailers to
average. Instead, all trailers in partial-aero families would need to
meet the standard for that subcategory. We are proposing to allow a
trailer manufacturer to combine partial-aero box trailers with the
corresponding full-aero trailer family and reduce the number of
certification applications required. We expect this to be particularly
beneficial to manufacturers in the early years of the program, when
these two trailer categories have identical standards. Although this
option should reduce the compliance paperwork, the partial-aero
trailers would not be able to adopt enough technologies to meet the
full-aero standards in the later years, and manufacturers would have
the option of creating a separate family for these trailers.
Additionally, we are proposing to allow refrigerated trailers to
combine with the dry vans of the same length and meet the dry van
standards and to allow short box vans to combine with their long box
counterparts to meet the long box standards.
Unlike averaging programs in other sectors, including those in this
Phase 2 program, we propose that averaging be limited to a single model
year, and manufacturer not be allowed to ``bank'' credits generated
from over-compliance in one year for use in a future year. In other
words, a manufacturer that produces some trailers in a family that
perform better than required by the applicable standard would be
allowed to produce a number of trailers that do not meet the standards,
provided the average of the trailers it produces in any given model
year is at or below the standards. A trailer family performing better
than the standard would not be allowed to bank credits for a future
model year.\251\ However, as a temporary recourse for unexpected
challenges in a given model year, we propose that manufacturers be
allowed to generate a deficit that would be resolved within the next
three model years, and to allow the manufacturer to use credits they
generate from over-compliance in subsequent years to address deficits
from prior model years. As discussed below, we are not proposing this
allowance for non-box trailers or non-aero trailers.
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\251\ Section IV.F.2 describes the process of identifying
trailer families and sub-families based on basic trailer
characteristics. Section 1037.710 of the proposed regulations
describes the provisions for establishing subfamilies within a
trailer family and the Family Emission Limits that would be averaged
among the subfamilies.
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We recognize that at each stage of the program, there may be a
small fraction of trailer applications for which the trailer
manufacturers cannot easily apply all of the aerodynamic and tire
technologies. Thus the proposed dry and refrigerated van standards are
designed in the form of family average performance, meaning that each
trailer manufacturer would comply on average across the trailer
families it produces within each subcategory category (or family). The
proposed program would allow a manufacturer, for example, to comply
without full adoption of aerodynamic devices across 100 percent of its
box trailer production in a trailer family, as long as it also produced
a sufficient number of trailers within that family that performed
better than the standard, such that the overall production-weighted
CO2 and fuel consumption results of the trailer models in
that family complied with the appropriate standard.
In addition to the flexibility created by averaging, the proposed
box trailer standards themselves are not predicated on a set adoption
rate of any one technology. Manufacturers would be free under the
proposed averaging program to choose to apply the appropriate number
and type of technologies that met their customers' needs and the level
of performance required within a particular trailer family. The
proposed rules in general do not mandate inclusion of any particular
technology or other means of emission control. The agencies believe
that, ordinarily, averaging would create an incentive for manufacturers
to promote high-performing technologies for some customers, beyond the
requirements for that given year, in order to provide other customers
with trailers with fewer aerodynamic technologies.
The agencies also recognize, however, that an averaging program
would inherently require a higher degree of data management, record
keeping, and reporting than one without averaging. Recognizing that
this could impose burdens, especially on small business manufacturers,
the agencies are proposing that the averaging provisions be optional; a
box trailer manufacturer could choose whether to use averaging
[[Page 40284]]
for any or all of its standard box trailer subcategories (families), or
to forego averaging and simply meet the standards with 100 percent of
the production within each family. Also, unlike some other regulated
motor vehicle sectors, we are not proposing that credits from over-
compliance be able to be ``banked'' for use in a later model year, or
to be ``traded'' among trailer manufacturers, since they would
exacerbate the competitive issues, especially for small manufacturers,
as discussed immediately below. However, we are proposing to apply to
trailers the provisions of Phase 1 for tractors that allow for the
generation of a compliance deficit that could be resolved over several
years. Thus, a manufacturer that chose to use averaging, but by the end
of the production year found that a trailer family's CO2 and
fuel consumption values did not reach that year's standards, could
carry a ``deficit'' that would need to be resolved by the third year
following.
The availability of averaging options also has the potential to be
a disadvantage to some companies in a competitive market that is highly
customer-driven. During the SBREFA process, several manufacturers
expressed concern about their ability to manage their credit balances
in a highly competitive market. Many believe that they would have
little ability to essentially force their customers to purchase the
technology, especially if other manufacturers that had credits were
able to sell trailers without the technology. We see this as especially
problematic for non-box trailers, which are much more likely to be
produced by small businesses, and for which customers may have less
interest in fuel savings technologies since they are less often used
long-haul applications than are box trailers. For these reasons, we are
proposing averaging only for dry and refrigerated vans.
The agencies understand that averaging is unfamiliar to many
trailer manufacturers and other stakeholders. We have drafted a
supplementary document that includes example scenarios to illustrate
the concept of averaging for a hypothetical box trailer
manufacturer.\252\ Example adoption rates are provided for a standard
compliance strategy (no averaging) and a strategy using the proposed
averaging provisions.
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\252\ Memorandum dated March 2015 on Example Compliance
Scenarios for the Proposed GHG Phase 2 Trailer Program. Docket EPA-
HQ-OAR-2014-0827.
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One value of averaging that the agencies have historically cited in
several other motor vehicle regulatory programs is that the
availability of averaging provisions made it possible for the agencies
to propose and enact more stringent standards than would otherwise have
been appropriate, recognizing that the expected flexibility of
averaging provisions would ease the path to compliance by the more
challenged members of the industry. In the case of trailer
manufacturers, however, our decisions on the proposed stringency of the
standards is essentially independent of the presence or absence of
averaging, since, as discussed above, averaging provisions may have
relatively less value to manufacturers in this customer-driven industry
and we did not speculate about much or how little it might be used.
We also request comment on whether the burden of managing an
averaging program could be more trouble than the flexibility is worth.
In the event that averaging were not allowed, the agencies would need
to require that all trailers meeting specified characteristics meet a
minimum stringency level without averaging. If we were to finalize such
non-averaging standards, manufacturers would still be allowed to select
the appropriate technology package that best achieved their emission
performance level, but they would not have the ability to accommodate
customers that may request trailers that perform less well on an
individual trailer basis.
It is also worth noting that the agencies are not proposing to
allow any generation of early credits before MY 2018. It is clear to us
that small businesses would be less prepared to begin complying early
than larger businesses, and that allowing large manufacturers to
generate early credits that could be used later could put small
businesses at a competitive disadvantage. It does not appear to us that
there would be a sufficient broader programmatic benefit from early
credits to justify such an adverse impact on small businesses.
We request comment on this proposed averaging option, including
whether the program should allow credit and deficit banking and credit
trading, as well as on any other potential provisions that could
provide compliance flexibility for trailer manufacturers while
achieving the goals of the overall program. Comments supporting
averaging, banking, or trading should explain how these provisions
would be valuable for trailer manufactures across the industry,
including how the provisions would maintain a ``level playing field.''
(b) Proposed SmartWay-Based Certification
Since many manufacturers have some experience with the SmartWay
program, the agencies are proposing a gradual transition to the
proposed approach that recognizes the parallel SmartWay Technology
Program. The agencies expect aerodynamic device manufacturers to
continue to submit test data to SmartWay for verification. Device
manufacturers that also wish to have their technology available for
trailer manufacturers to use in the Phase 2 program could, in parallel,
submit their test data to EPA for pre-approval for Phase 2 (see Section
IV.F.4). The information obtained by EPA from the device manufacturers
would include the technology name, a description of its proper
installation procedure, and its corresponding delta CDA
derived from the approved test procedures. Any manufacturers that
attained SmartWay verification prior to January 1, 2018 would be
eligible to submit their previous data to EPA's Compliance Division for
pre-approval, provided their test results come from SmartWay's 2014
test protocols that measure a delta CDA. The protocols for
coastdown, wind tunnel, and computational fluid dynamics analyses
result in a CDA value. Note that SmartWay's 2014 protocols
allow SAE J1321 Type 2 track testing, which generates fuel consumption
results, not CDA values. The agencies request comment on
whether we should pre-approve devices tested using SAE J1321 and also
seek comment on an appropriate means of converting from the fuel
consumption results of that test to the delta CDA values
required for trailer compliance.
Beginning on January 1, 2018, EPA would require that device
manufacturers that wish to seek approval of new technologies for
trailer certification use one of the approved test methods for Phase 2
(i.e., coastdown, constant speed, wind tunnel or CFD) and the test
procedures found in 40 CFR 1037.525. Technologies that were pre-
approved using SmartWay's 2014 Protocols would maintain their approved
status until CY 2021. After January 1, 2021, we are proposing that all
pre-approved aerodynamic trailer technologies be tested using the Phase
2 test procedures.
(c) Off-Cycle Technologies
The Phase 1 and proposed Phase 2 programs for tractors include
provisions for manufacturers to request the use of off cycle
technologies that are not recognized in GEM or were not in common use
before MY 2010. In the
[[Page 40285]]
case of trailers, the agencies are not aware of any technologies that
could improve CO2 and fuel consumption performance that
would not be captured in the test protocols as proposed. We are
therefore not proposing a process to evaluate off-cycle trailer
technologies.
(d) Small Business Regulatory Flexibility Provisions
As a part of our small business obligations under the Regulatory
Flexibility Act, EPA and NHTSA have considered additional flexibility
provisions aimed at this segment of the trailer manufacturing industry.
EPA convened a Small Business Advocacy Review (SBAR) Panel as required
by the Small Business Regulatory Enforcement Fairness Act (SBREFA), and
much of the information gained and recommendations provided by this
process form the basis of the flexibilities proposed.\253\ As in
previous rulemakings, our justification for including provisions
specific to small businesses is that these entities generally have a
greater degree of difficulty in complying with the standards compared
to other entities. Thus, as discussed below, we are proposing several
regulatory flexibility provisions for small trailer manufacturers that
we believe would reduce the burden on them while achieving the goals of
the program.
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\253\ Additional information regarding the findings and
recommendations of the Panel are available in Section XIV, Chapter
11 of the draft RIA, and in the Panel's final report titled ``Final
Report of the Small Business Advocacy Review Panel on EPA's Planned
Proposed Rule Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Fuel Efficiency Standards
for Medium- and Heavy-Duty Engines and Vehicles: Phase 2'' (See
Docket EPA-HQ-OAR-2014-0827).
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We believe that the small business regulatory flexibilities
discussed below and in Section XV.C could provide these entities with
reduced compliance requirements and/or additional time to accumulate
capital internally or to secure capital financing from lenders, and to
acquire additional engineering and testing resources.
The agencies designed many of the proposed program elements and
flexibility provisions available to all trailer manufacturers with the
large fraction of small business trailer manufacturers in mind. We
believe the option to choose pre-approved aerodynamic devices would
significantly reduce the compliance burden and eliminate the
requirement for all manufacturers to perform testing.
As noted above, the small trailer manufacturers raised concerns
that their businesses could be harmed by provisions allowing averaging,
banking, and trading of emissions and fuel consumption performance,
since they would not be able to generate the same volume of credits as
large manufacturers. The agencies are proposing not to include banking
and trading provisions in any part of the program, and are limiting the
option to average to manufacturers of dry and refrigerated box
trailers. Since a majority of non-box trailer manufacturers are small
businesses, we believe a requirement of specific tire technologies for
all non-box trailers would create the most uniformity in requirements
among manufacturers and would reduce the compliance burden by
eliminating the use of the compliance equation.
In addition to the provisions offered to trailer manufacturers of
all sizes, the agencies are proposing or requesting comment on several
additional provisions designed specifically to ease compliance burdens
on small trailer manufacturers. For all small business trailer
manufacturers, the agencies propose a one-year delay in the beginning
of implementation of the program, until MY 2019. We believe (subject to
consideration of public comment) that this would allow small businesses
additional needed lead-time to make the proper staffing adjustments and
process changes, and possibly add new infrastructure to meet the
requirements. We also request comment about where there may be
circumstances in later stages of the program, when the stringency of
the standards increase in MY 2021 and 2024, when a similar 1-year delay
in implementation could be warranted for small trailer manufacturers.
As mentioned previously, we are proposing to offer averaging
provisions for manufacturers of dry and refrigerated box trailers only.
We recognize that the small box trailer manufacturers may not be able
to fully take advantage of averaging and may be at a competitive
disadvantage with larger manufacturers with larger sales volumes and
more diverse product lines. We request comment on additional provisions
that could ease the potential harm to and/or incentivize small business
participation in an averaging program.
The agencies also request comment on provisions for small
manufacturers that might face a situation where the technologies needed
for compliance are unavailable. This could be a particular concern for
small business non-box and non-aero box trailers that require the use
of LRR tires and ATI systems. We request that trailer manufacturers as
well as tire and aerodynamic technology manufacturers provide
information regarding the current projected availability of the
technologies that trailer manufacturers can use to meet our proposed
standards.
V. Class 2b-8 Vocational Vehicles
A. Summary of Phase 1 Vocational Vehicle Standards
Class 2b-8 vocational vehicles include a wide variety of vehicle
types, and serve a wide range of functions. Some examples include
service for urban delivery, refuse hauling, utility service, dump,
concrete mixing, transit service, shuttle service, school bus,
emergency, motor homes, and tow trucks. In the HD Phase 1 Program, the
agencies defined Class 2b-8 vocational vehicles as all heavy-duty
vehicles that are not included in the Heavy-duty Pickup Truck and Van
or the Class 7 and 8 Tractor categories. In effect, the rules classify
heavy-duty vehicles that are not a combination tractor or a pickup
truck or van as vocational vehicles. Class 2b-8 vocational vehicles and
their engines emit approximately 20 percent of the GHG emissions and
burn approximately 21 percent of the fuel consumed by today's heavy-
duty truck sector.\254\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\254\ See Memorandum to the Docket ``Runspecs and Model Inputs
for MOVES for HD GHG Phase 2 Emissions Modeling'' Docket Number EPA-
HQ-OAR-2014-0827. See also EPA's MOVES Web page at https://www.epa.gov/otaq/models/moves/index.htm.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Most vocational vehicles are produced in a two-stage build process,
though some are built from the ``ground up'' by a single entity. In the
two-stage process, the first stage sometimes is completed by a chassis
manufacturer that also builds its own proprietary components such as
engines or transmissions. This is known as a vertically integrated
manufacturer. The first stage can also be completed by a chassis
manufacturer who procures all components, including the engine and
transmission, from separate suppliers. The product completed at the
first stage is generally either a stripped chassis, a cowled chassis,
or a cab chassis. A stripped chassis may include a steering column, a
cowled chassis may include a hood and dashboard, and a cab chassis may
include an enclosed driver compartment. Many of the same companies that
build Class 7 and 8 tractors also sell vocational chassis in the medium
heavy- and heavy heavy-duty weight classes. Similarly, some of the
companies that build Class 2b and 3 pickups and vans also sell
vocational chassis in the light heavy-duty weight classes.
[[Page 40286]]
The second stage is typically completed by a final stage
manufacturer or body builder, which installs the primary load carrying
device or other work-related equipment, such as a dump bed, delivery
box, or utility boom. There are over 200 final stage manufacturers in
the U.S., most of which are small businesses. Even the large final
stage manufacturers are specialized, producing a narrow range of
vehicle body types. These businesses also tend to be small volume
producers. In 2011, the top four producers of truck bodies sold a total
of 64,000 units, which is about 31 percent of sales in that year.\255\
In that same year, 74 percent of final stage manufacturers produced
less than 500 units.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\255\ Specialty Transportation.net, 2012. Truck Body
Manufacturing in North America.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
The businesses that act both as the chassis manufacturer and the
final stage manufacturer are those that build the vehicles from the
``ground up.'' These entities generally produce custom products that
are sold in lower volumes than those produced in large commercial
processes. Examples of vehicles produced with this build process would
include fire apparatus and transit buses.
The diversity in the vocational vehicle segment can be primarily
attributed to the variety of customer needs for specialized vehicle
bodies and added equipment, rather than to the chassis. For example, a
body builder can build either a Class 6 bucket truck or a Class 6
delivery truck from the same Class 6 chassis. The aerodynamic
difference between these two vehicles due to their bodies would lead to
different in-use fuel consumption and GHG emissions. However, the
baseline fuel consumption and emissions due to the components included
in the common chassis (such as the engine, drivetrain, frame, and
tires) would be the same between these two types of vehicles.
Owners of vocational vehicles that are upfitted with high-priced
bodies that are purpose-built for particular applications tend to keep
them longer, on average, than owners of vehicles such as pickups, vans,
and tractors, which are traded in broad markets that include many
potential secondary markets. The fact that vocational vehicles also
generally accumulate far fewer annual miles than tractors further
contributes to lengthy trade cycles among owners of these vehicles. To
the extent vocational vehicle owners may be similar to owners of
tractors in terms of business profiles, they would be more likely to
resemble private fleets or owner-operators than for-hire fleets. A 2013
survey conducted by NACFE found that the trade cycle of private tractor
fleets ranged from seven to 12 years.\256\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\256\ See 2013 ICCT Barriers Report at Note 241, above.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
The Phase 1 standards for this vocational vehicle category
generally apply at the chassis manufacturer level. For the same reasons
given in Phase 1, the agencies propose to apply the Phase 2 vocational
vehicle standards at the chassis manufacturer level.\257\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\257\ See 76 FR 57120.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
The Phase 1 regulations prohibit the introduction into commerce of
any heavy-duty vehicle without a valid certificate or exemption. 40 CFR
1037.620, redesignated as 40 CFR 1037.622 in the proposed rule, allows
for a temporary exemption for the chassis manufacturer if it produces
the chassis for a secondary manufacturer that holds a certificate.
Further discussion of temporary exemptions and possible obligations of
secondary manufacturers can be found in Section V. E.
In Phase 1, the agencies adopted two equivalent sets of standards
for Class 2b-8 vocational vehicles. For vehicle-level (chassis)
emissions, EPA adopted CO2 standards expressed in grams per
ton-mile. For fuel efficiency, NHTSA adopted fuel consumption standards
expressed in gallons per 1,000 ton-miles. The Phase 1 engine-based
standards vary based on the expected weight class and usage of the
vehicle into which the engine will be installed. We adopted Phase 1
vehicle-based standards that vary according to one key attribute, GVWR,
based on the same groupings of vehicle weight classes used for the
engine standards--light heavy-duty (LHD, Class 2b-5), medium heavy-duty
(MHD, Class 6-7), and heavy heavy-duty (HHD, Class 8).
In Phase 1, the agencies defined a special regulatory category
called vocational tractor, which generally operate more like vocational
vehicles than line haul tractors.\258\ As described above in Section
III.C.4, under the Phase 1 rules, a vocational tractor is certified
under standards for vocational vehicles, not those for tractors. In
Phase 2, the agencies propose to retain the vocational tractor
definition, and to allow vocational tractors to certify over any of the
proposed vocational vehicle duty cycles, following the same decision-
tree as other vocational chassis. Vocational tractors would continue to
satisfy the proposed engine standard and vocational vehicle GEM-based
standard, rather than the proposed tractor standard.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\258\ See EPA's regulation at 40 CFR 1037.630 and NHTSA's
regulation at 49 CFR 523.2.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Manufacturers are required to use GEM to determine compliance with
the Phase 1 vocational vehicle standards, where the primary vocational
vehicle manufacturer-generated input is the measure of tire rolling
resistance. The GEM assumes the use of a typical representative,
compliant engine in the simulation, resulting in one overall value for
CO2 emissions and one for fuel consumption. The
manufacturers of engines intended for use in vocational vehicles are
subject to separate Phase 1 engine-based standards. Manufacturers also
may demonstrate compliance with the CO2 standards in whole
or in part using credits reflecting CO2 reductions resulting
from technologies not reflected in the GEM testing regime. See 40 CFR
1037.610.
In Phase 1, EPA and NHTSA also adopted provisions designed to give
manufacturers a degree of flexibility in complying with the standards.
Most significantly, we adopted an ABT program to allow manufacturers
within the same averaging set to comply on average. See 40 CFR part
1037, subpart H. These provisions enabled the agencies to adopt overall
standards that are more stringent than we could have considered with a
less flexible program.\259\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\259\ As noted earlier, NHTSA notes that it has greater
flexibility in the HD program to include consideration of credits
and other flexibilities in determining appropriate and feasible
levels of stringency than it does in the light-duty CAFE program.
Cf. 49 U.S.C. 32902(h), which applies to light-duty CAFE but not to
heavy-duty fuel efficiency under 49 U.S.C. 32902(k).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
B. Proposed Phase 2 Standards for Vocational Vehicles
The agencies have held dozens of meetings with manufacturers,
suppliers, non-governmental organizations (NGOs), and other
stakeholders to identify and understand the opportunities and
challenges involved with regulating vocational vehicles. These meetings
have helped us to better understand the performance demands of the
customers, the fuel-saving and GHG reducing technologies that are being
investigated, as well as some challenges that are being encountered. In
addition, we updated our industry characterization to better understand
the vocational vehicle manufacturing process, including the component
suppliers and body builders.\260\ We believe these information
exchanges have enabled us to develop this proposal with an appropriate
balance of
[[Page 40287]]
reasonably achievable goals and a reasonably small risk of unintended
consequences.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\260\ September 2013, Heavy Duty Vocational Vehicle Industry
Characterization, EPA Contract No. EP-C-12-011.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
(1) Proposed Subcategories and Test Cycles
The proposed Phase 2 vocational vehicle standards are based on the
performance of a wider array of control technologies than the Phase 1
rules. In particular, the agencies are proposing to recognize detailed
characteristics of powertrains and drivelines in the proposed Phase 2
vocational vehicle standards. As described below, driveline
improvements present a significant opportunity for reducing fuel
consumption and CO2 emissions from vocational vehicles.
However, there is no single package of driveline technologies that
would be equally suitable for the majority of vocational vehicles,
because there is an extremely broad range of driveline configurations
available in the market. This is due in part to the variety of build
processes, ranging from a purpose built custom chassis to a commercial
chassis that may be intended as a multi-purpose stock vehicle. Further,
the wide range of applications and driving patterns of these vehicles
leads manufacturers to offer a variety of drivelines, as each performs
differently in use. For example, depending on whether the transmission
has an overdrive gear, drive axle ratios for Class 7 and 8 tractors can
be found in the range of 2.5:1 to 4.1:1. By contrast, across all types
of vocational vehicles, drive axle ratios can be as low as 3.1:1
(delivery vehicle) and as high as 9.8:1 (transit bus).\261\ Other
components of the driveline also have a broader range of product in
vocational vehicles than in tractors, including transmission gears,
tire sizes, and engine speeds. Each of these design features affects
the GHG emission rate and fuel consumption of the vehicle. It therefore
is reasonable to define more than one baseline configuration of
vocational vehicle, to encompass a range of drivelines and recognize
that the agencies cannot use a one-size-fits-all approach. A detailed
list of the technologies the agencies project could be adopted to meet
the proposed vocational vehicle standards is described in Section V.C,
and in the draft RIA Chapter 2. The agencies have determined that these
technologies perform differently depending on the drivelines and
driving patterns, further supporting the need to subcategorize this
segment.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\261\ See Dana Spicer Drive Axle Application Guidelines,
available at https://www.dana.com/wps/wcm/connect/133007004bd8422b9ea8be14e7b6dae0/DEXT-daag2012_0712_DriveAxlesAppGuide_LR.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&CONVERT_TO=url&CACHEID=133007004bd8422b9ea8be14e7b6dae0. See also ZF Driveline and
Chassis Technology brochure, available at https://www.zf.com/media/media/en/document/corporate_2/downloads_1/flyer_and_brochures/bus_driveline_technology_flyer/Busbroschuere_12_DE_final.pdf
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
For these reasons, the agencies are proposing to create additional
subcategories of vocational vehicles in Phase 2. By creating additional
subcategories we would essentially be setting separate baselines and
separate numerical performance standards for different groups of
vocational vehicle chassis over different test cycles. This would
enable the technologies that perform best at highway speeds and those
that perform best in urban driving to each to be fully recognized over
appropriate test cycles, while avoiding the unintended consequence of
forcing vocational vehicles that are designed to serve in a wide
variety of applications to be measured against a single baseline. The
attributes we believe could define these chassis groups are described
below.
The agencies are proposing to split groups of chassis into
subcategories based generally on vehicle use patterns in which the
CO2 emissions and fuel consumption standards vary as a
consequence. Compliance with these standards would be demonstrated
through test cycles reflecting these use patterns, to best assure that
actual in-use benefits occur. An ideal test cycle is one in which the
performance improvements achieved by the adopted technologies are
recognized over the cycle. As described in Section V.C and in the draft
RIA Chapter 2.9, the agencies have found that most of the technologies
considered do perform differently under different driving conditions.
For example, the effectiveness of lower tire rolling resistance is
different depending on the degree of highway or transient driving, but
the differences are very small compared to the difference in
effectiveness for a hybrid drivetrain under different driving
conditions. The agencies have found that the measurable changes in
performance of a majority of the technologies are significant enough to
merit creation of different subcategories with different test cycles.
Idle reduction technology is one type of technology that is
particularly duty-cycle dependent. The composite test cycle for
vocational vehicles in Phase 1 includes a 42 percent weighting on the
ARB Transient test cycle, which comprises nearly 17 percent of idle
time. However, no single idle event in this test cycle is longer than
36 seconds, which may not be enough time to adequately recognize the
benefits of some idle reduction technologies.\262\ For Phase 2, the
agencies propose to recognize this important fuel saving technology by
evaluating workday idle reduction technologies through a new idle-only
cycle as described in the draft RIA Chapter 3.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\262\ However, as noted above, emission improvements due to
workday idle technology can be recognized under Phase 1 as an
innovative credit under 40 CFR 1037.610 and 49 CFR 535.7.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
The agencies are proposing three different composite test cycles
for vocational vehicles in Phase 2: Regional, Multi-Purpose, and Urban.
The agencies believe these three cycles balance the competing pressures
to recognize the varying performance of technologies, serve the varying
needs of customers, and maintain reasonable regulatory simplicity.
Table V-1 below presents the nine proposed subcategories of vocational
vehicles: Three weight class groupings, each with three composite duty
cycles. Each of these proposed composite duty cycles has a different
weighting of the new idle cycle, the highway cruise cycles, and the ARB
Transient cycle, as shown in Table V-2. The CALSTART HD Truck Fuel
Economy Task Group met in June 2013 to discuss vocational vehicle
segmentation, and suggested an approach very similar to this. The task
group generally supported a limited number of duty cycles that would be
sufficient to cover the basic applications while allowing new
technology to demonstrate its worth. They recognized that a few
meaningful duty cycles could ``bound'' how vocational vehicles are
generally used, while recognizing that this approach would not
perfectly match how every vocational vehicle is actually used. Their
recommendations included three vocational vehicle duty-cycle-based
subcategories: Urban, Regional, and Work Site. A detailed discussion of
the CALSTART recommendations, as well as reasoning why the agencies
selected the proposed composite cycle weightings can be found in the
draft RIA Chapter 2. Continuing the averaging scheme from Phase 1, each
manufacturer would be able to average within each vehicle weight class.
[[Page 40288]]
Table V-1--Proposed Regulatory Subcategories for Vocational Vehicles
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Light heavy-duty class 2b- Medium heavy-duty class 6-
Weight class 5 7 Heavy heavy-duty class 8
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Duty Cycle.................. Regional.................. Regional.................. Regional.
Multi-Purpose............. Multi-Purpose............. Multi-Purpose.
Urban..................... Urban..................... Urban.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table V-2--Proposed Composite Test Cycle Weightings (in Percent) for Vocational Vehicles
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
55 mph cruise 65 mph cruise
ARB transient with road with road Idle
grade \a\ grade \a\
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Regional........................................ 50 28 22 10
Multi-Purpose................................... 82 15 3 15
Urban........................................... 94 6 0 20
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note:
\a\ As described in Section III.E.2.b, the agencies are proposing to add road grade to the highway cruise test
cycles.
The agencies are proposing criteria for determining the
applicability of these subcategories. This is not as straightforward an
exercise as with tractors, where attributes such as cab type are
obvious physical properties that indicate reasonably well how a vehicle
is intended to be used. The agencies have identified the final drive
ratio of a vocational vehicle as a possible attribute that may indicate
how the vehicle is intended to be used. As described in Section
V.E.(1)(d), we expect that most vocational chassis could be assigned to
a duty cycle by estimating the percent of maximum engine test speed
that is achieved over highway cruise cycles, by use of an equation that
relates engine speed to vehicle speed. To simplify this assignment
process, the agencies propose that a vocational chassis would be
presumed to certify using the Multi-Purpose duty cycle unless some
criteria were met that indicated either the Regional or Urban cycle
would be more appropriate. Those criteria could include the objective
calculation described in Section V.E., or a mix of physical attributes
and knowledge of intended use. The agencies are also proposing that
chassis manufacturers would be able to request a different duty cycle.
We understand that even within certain vocational vehicle types,
vehicle use varies significantly. By employing the agencies'
recommended assignment process, it is our expectation that a delivery
truck and a dump truck could both be certified over the same duty cycle
while still yielding accurate technology effectiveness, if they had
similar chassis and driveline characteristics. Further, while intended
service class may help a manufacturer decide how to classify some
vehicles, we do not believe that intended service class would be a
sufficient indicator by itself. An example of this is the refuse
service class. A neighborhood collection refuse truck would not need to
be assigned to the same subcategory as a roll-off refuse straight/dump
truck that makes daily highway trips to a landfill.
The agencies request comment on the method for assigning vocational
chassis to regulatory subcategories. We believe the proposed approach
is aligned with the objective to allow manufacturers to certify their
chassis over appropriate duty cycles, while maintaining the ability of
the market to offer a variety of products to meet customer demand.
(2) Alternative Approach to Subcategorization
The U.S. Department of Energy and EPA are partnering to support a
project aimed at evaluating, refining and/or developing duty cycles for
tractors and vocational vehicles to be used in the certification of
heavy-duty vehicles to GHG emission standards. This project is underway
at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and includes a task
to develop alternative subcategorization options for vocational
vehicles, along with new drive cycles and/or cycle composite
weightings. NREL is continuing to collate available vehicle activity
data and vehicle characteristics, and the public is invited to submit
information to the docket in support of this work to identify possible
alternative GEM test cycles and segmentation options for vocational
vehicles. Preliminary work under this project indicates that two or
three test cycles may adequately represent most vocational vehicles.
Depending on how many distinct vehicle driving patterns can be
identified with correlation to vehicle attributes, the agencies may
finalize a vocational subcategorization approach that includes as few
as two or as many as five composite GEM duty cycles. It is also
possible that some test cycles may not apply to all subcategories. It
is further possible that the approach to assignment of vocational
chassis to subcategories in the final rules may be based on different
attributes than those proposed, including different engine and
driveline characteristics and different indicators of vehicle purpose.
Preliminary work from NREL indicates that in-use drive cycles may
include more idle operation for all types of vocational vehicles than
is represented by the currently proposed GEM test cycles. Depending on
comments and additional information received during the comment period,
it may be within the agencies' discretion to adopt one or more
alternative vocational vehicle test cycles, or re-weight the current
test cycles, to better represent real world driving and better reflect
performance of the technology packages.
(3) Proposed GHG and Fuel Consumption Standards for Vocational Vehicles
EPA is proposing CO2 standards and NHTSA is proposing
fuel consumption standards for manufacturers of chassis for new
vocational vehicles. As described in Sections II.C.1 and II.D.1 above,
the agencies are proposing test procedures so that engine performance
would be evaluated within the GEM simulation tool. These test
procedures include corrections for the test fuel, enabling vocational
vehicles to be certified with many different types of CI and SI
engines. In addition, EPA is proposing to establish HFC leakage
standards for air conditioning systems in vocational vehicles, as
described
[[Page 40289]]
below and in the draft RIA Chapters 2 and 5.
This section describes the standards and implementation dates that
the agencies are proposing for the nine subcategories of vocational
vehicles. The agencies have performed a technology analysis to
determine the level of standards that we believe would be available at
reasonable cost, and would be cost-effective, technologically feasible,
and appropriate in the lead time provided. More details of this
analysis are described in the draft RIA Chapter 2. This analysis
considered the following for each of the proposed regulatory
subcategories:
The level of technology that is incorporated in current
new vehicles,
forecasts of manufacturers' product redesign schedules,
the available data on CO2 emissions and fuel
consumption for these vehicles,
technologies that would reduce CO2 emissions
and fuel consumption and that are judged to be feasible and appropriate
for these vehicles through the 2027 model year,
the effectiveness and cost of these technologies,
a projection of the technologically feasible application
rates of these technologies, in this time frame, and
projections of future U.S. sales for different types of
vehicles and engines.
The proposal described here and throughout the rulemaking documents
is the preferred alternative, referred to as Alternative 3 in Section X
and the draft RIA Chapter 11. However, the agencies are seriously
considering another alternative for all segments, including vocational
vehicles, referred to as Alternative 4. The agencies believe that
Alternative 4 has the potential to be the maximum feasible and
reasonable alternative. However, based on the evidence currently before
the agencies, EPA and NHTSA have outstanding questions regarding
relative risks and benefits of Alternative 4 due to the time frame
envisioned by that alternative. Alternative 4 is predicated on the same
general market adoption rates of the same technologies as the proposal,
but would provide three years less lead time than the proposal. Details
of Alternative 4 are presented in Section V.D, Section X, and in the
draft RIA Chapter 11.
The agencies seek comment on the feasibility of Alternative 4 for
vocational vehicles, including empirical data on its appropriateness,
cost-effectiveness, and technological feasibility. It would be helpful
if comments addressed these issues separately for each type of
technology.
Additional information and feedback could further inform our
assumptions and, by extension, our analysis of feasibility. The
agencies believe it is possible that it could be within the agencies'
discretion to determine in the final rules that Alternative 4 could be
maximum feasible and appropriate under CAA section 202(a)(1) and (2).
If the agencies receive relevant information supporting the feasibility
of Alternative 4, or regarding technology pathways different than those
in Alternatives 3 and 4, the agencies may consider establishing final
fuel consumption and GHG emission standards at levels that provide more
overall reductions than what we are proposing if we deem them to be
maximum feasible and reasonable for NHTSA and EPA, respectively.
(a) Proposed Fuel Consumption and CO2 Standards
The agencies are proposing standards that would phase in over a
period of seven years, beginning in the 2021 model year, consistent
with the requirement in EISA that NHTSA's standards provide four full
model years of regulatory lead time and three full model years of
regulatory stability, and provide sufficient time ``to permit the
development and application of the requisite technology'' for purposes
of CAA section 202(a)(2). The proposed Phase 2 program would progress
in three-year stages with an intermediate set of standards in MY 2024
and would continue to reduce fuel consumption and CO2
emissions well beyond the full implementation year of MY 2027. The
agencies have identified a technology path for each of these levels of
improvement, as described below.
Combining engine and vehicle technologies, vocational vehicles
powered by CI engines would be projected to achieve improvements of 16
percent in MY 2027 over the MY 2017 baseline, as described below and in
the draft RIA Chapter 2. The agencies project up to 13 percent
improvement in fuel consumption and CO2 emissions in MY 2027
from SI-powered vocational vehicles, as shown in Table V-3. The
incremental Phase 2 vocational vehicle standards would ensure steady
progress toward the MY 2027 standards, with improvements in MY 2021 of
up to seven percent and improvements in MY 2024 of up to 11 percent
over the MY 2017 baseline vehicles, as shown in Table V-3.
The agencies' analyses, as discussed in this preamble and in the
draft RIA Chapter 2, show that the proposed standards would be
appropriate under each agency's respective statutory authority.
Table V-3--Projected Vocational Vehicle CO2 and Fuel Use Reductions (in Percent) From 2017 Baseline
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Light heavy-
Model year Engine type Heavy heavy- Medium heavy- duty class 2b-
duty class 8 duty class 6-7 5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2021.................................. CI Engine............... 7 7 6
SI Engine............... 5 5 4
2024.................................. CI Engine............... 11 11 10
SI Engine............... 7 7 7
2027.................................. CI Engine............... 16 16 16
SI Engine............... 12 13 12
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Based on our analysis and research, the agencies believe that the
improvements in vocational vehicle fuel consumption and CO2
emissions can be achieved through deployment and utilization of a
greater set of technologies than formed the technology basis for the
Phase 1 standards. In developing the proposed standards, the agencies
have evaluated the current levels of fuel consumption and emissions,
the kinds of technologies that could be utilized by manufacturers to
reduce fuel consumption and emissions, the associated lead time, the
associated costs for the industry, fuel savings for the owner/operator,
and the magnitude of the CO2 reductions and fuel savings
that may be achieved. After examining the possibilities of vehicle
improvements, the agencies are basing the proposed standards on the
performance of workday idle reduction technologies, improved
transmissions
[[Page 40290]]
including hybrid powertrains, axle technologies, weight reduction, and
further tire rolling resistance improvements. The EPA-only air
conditioning standard is based on leakage improvements.
The agencies' evaluation indicates that some of the above vehicle
technologies are commercially available today, though often in limited
volumes. Other technologies would need additional time for development.
Those that we believe are available today and may be adopted to a
limited extent in some vehicles include improved tire rolling
resistance, weight reduction, some types of conventional transmission
improvements, neutral idle, and air conditioning leakage improvements.
However, EPA is not proposing standards predicated on performance of
these technologies until MY 2021.\263\ The agencies consider any
potential benefits that could be achieved by implementing rules
requiring some technologies on vocational vehicles earlier than MY 2021
to be outweighed by several disadvantages. For one, manufacturers would
need lead time to develop compliance tracking tools. Also, if the Phase
2 vocational vehicle standards began in a different year than the
tractor standards, this could create unnecessary added complexity, and
could strongly detract from the fuel savings and GHG emission
reductions that could otherwise be achieved. Therefore we anticipate
that the Phase 1 standards will continue to apply in model years 2018
to 2020.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\263\ NHTSA is unable to adopt mandatory amended standards in
those model years since there would be less than the statutorily-
prescribed amount of lead time available. 49 U.S.C. 32902(k)(3)(A).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Vehicle technologies that we believe will become available in the
near term include improved axle lubrication and 6x2 axles. Vehicle
technologies that we understand would benefit from even more
development time include stop-start idle reduction and hybrid
powertrains. The agencies have analyzed the technological feasibility
of achieving the fuel consumption and CO2 standards, based
on projections of what actions manufacturers would be expected to take
to reduce fuel consumption and emissions to achieve the standards, and
believe that the standards would be technologically feasible throughout
the regulatory useful life of the program. EPA and NHTSA estimated
vehicle package costs are found in Section V.C.(2).
Table V-4 and Table V-5 present EPA's proposed CO2
standards and NHTSA's proposed fuel consumption standards,
respectively, for chassis manufacturers of Class 2b through Class 8
vocational vehicles for the beginning model year of the program, MY
2021. As in Phase 1, the standards would be in the form of the mass of
emissions, or gallons of fuel, associated with carrying a ton of cargo
over a fixed distance. The EPA standards would be measured in units of
grams CO2 per ton-mile and the NHTSA standards would be in
gallons of fuel per 1,000 ton-miles. With the mass of freight in the
denominator of this term, the program is designed to measure improved
efficiency in terms of freight efficiency. As in Phase 1, the Phase 2
program would assign a fixed default payload in GEM for each vehicle
weight class group (heavy heavy-duty, medium heavy-duty, and light
heavy-duty). Even though this simplification does not allow individual
vehicle freight efficiencies to be recognized, the general capacity for
larger vehicles to carry more payload is represented in the numerical
values of the proposed standards for each weight class group.
EPA's proposed vocational vehicle CO2 standards and
NHTSA's proposed fuel consumption standards for the MY 2024 stage of
the program are presented in Table V-6 and Table V-7, respectively.
These reflect broader adoption rates of vehicle technologies already
considered in the technology basis for the MY 2021 standards. The
standards for vehicles powered by CI engines also reflect that in MY
2024, the separate engine standard would be more stringent, so the
vehicle standard keeps pace with the engine standard.
EPA's proposed vocational vehicle CO2 standards and
NHTSA's proposed fuel consumption standards for the full implementation
year of MY 2027 are presented in Table V-8 and Table V-9, respectively.
These reflect even greater adoption rates of the same vehicle
technologies considered in the basis for the previous stages of the
Phase 2 standards. The proposed MY 2027 standards for vocational
vehicles powered by CI engines reflect additional engine technologies
consistent with those on which the separate proposed MY 2027 CI engine
standard is based. The proposed MY 2027 standards for vocational
vehicles powered by SI engines reflect improvements due to additional
engine friction reduction technology, which is not among the
technologies on which the separate SI engine standard is based.
The proposed standards are based on highway cruise cycles that
include road grade, to better reflect real world driving and to help
recognize engine and driveline technologies. See Section III.E. The
agencies have evaluated some alternate road grade profiles, including
several recommended by NREL and two developed independently by the
agencies, and have prepared possible alternative vocational vehicle
standards based on these profiles. The agencies request comment on this
analysis, which is available in a memorandum to the docket.\264\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\264\ See Memorandum dated May 2015 on Possible Tractor,
Trailer, and Vocational Vehicle Standards Derived from Alternative
Road Grade Profiles.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
As described in Section I, the agencies are proposing to continue
the Phase 1 approach to averaging, banking and trading (ABT), allowing
ABT within vehicle weight classes. For Phase 2, continuing this
approach means allowing averaging between CI-powered vehicles and SI-
powered vehicles that belong to the same weight class group and have
the same regulatory useful life.
Table V-4--Proposed EPA CO2 Standards for MY 2021 Class 2b-8 Vocational Vehicles
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Light heavy-
Duty cycle duty class 2b- Medium heavy- Heavy heavy-
5 duty class 6-7 duty class 8
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
EPA Standard for Vehicle with CI Engine Effective MY 2021 (gram CO2/ton-mile)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Urban........................................................... 296 188 198
Multi-Purpose................................................... 305 190 200
Regional........................................................ 318 186 189
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
EPA Standard for Vehicle with SI Engine Effective MY 2021 (gram CO2/ton-mile)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Urban........................................................... 320 203 214
[[Page 40291]]
Multi-Purpose................................................... 329 205 216
Regional........................................................ 343 201 204
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table V-5--Proposed NHTSA Fuel Consumption Standards for MY 2021 Class 2b-8 Vocational Vehicles
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Light heavy-
Duty cycle duty class 2b- Medium heavy- Heavy heavy-
5 duty class 6-7 duty class 8
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NHTSA Standard for Vehicle with CI Engine Effective MY 2021 (Fuel Consumption gallon per 1,000 ton-mile)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Urban........................................................... 29.0766 18.4676 19.4499
Multi-Purpose................................................... 29.9607 18.6640 19.6464
Regional........................................................ 31.2377 18.2711 18.5658
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NHTSA Standard for Vehicle with SI Engine Effective MY 2021 (Fuel Consumption gallon per 1,000 ton-mile)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Urban........................................................... 36.0077 22.8424 24.0801
Multi-Purpose................................................... 37.0204 23.0674 24.3052
Regional........................................................ 38.5957 22.6173 22.9549
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table V-6--Proposed EPA CO2 Standards for MY 2024 Class 2b-8 Vocational Vehicles
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Light heavy-
Duty cycle duty class 2b- Medium heavy- Heavy heavy-
5 duty class 6-7 duty class 8
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
EPA Standard for Vehicle with CI Engine Effective MY 2024 (gram CO2/ton-mile)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Urban........................................................... 284 179 190
Multi-Purpose................................................... 292 181 192
Regional........................................................ 304 178 182
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
EPA Standard for Vehicle with SI Engine Effective MY 2024 (gram CO2/ton-mile)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Urban........................................................... 312 197 208
Multi-Purpose................................................... 321 199 210
Regional........................................................ 334 196 199
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table V-7--Proposed NHTSA Fuel Consumption Standards for MY 2024 Class 2b-8 Vocational Vehicles
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Light heavy-
Duty cycle duty class 2b- Medium heavy- Heavy heavy-
5 duty class 6-7 duty class 8
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NHTSA Standard for Vehicle with CI Engine Effective MY 2024 (Fuel Consumption gallon per 1,000 ton-mile)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Urban........................................................... 27.8978 17.5835 18.6640
Multi-Purpose................................................... 28.6837 17.7800 18.8605
Regional........................................................ 29.8625 17.4853 17.8782
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NHTSA Standard for Vehicle with SI Engine Effective MY 2024 (Fuel Consumption gallon per 1,000 ton-mile)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Urban........................................................... 35.1075 22.1672 23.4050
Multi-Purpose................................................... 36.1202 22.3923 23.6300
Regional........................................................ 37.5830 22.0547 22.3923
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table V-8--Proposed EPA CO2 Standards for MY 2027 Class 2b-8 Vocational Vehicles
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Light heavy-
Duty cycle duty class 2b- Medium heavy- Heavy heavy-
5 duty class 6-7 duty class 8
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
EPA Standard for Vehicle with CI Engine Effective MY 2027 (gram CO2/ton-mile)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Urban........................................................... 272 172 182
Multi-Purpose................................................... 280 174 183
[[Page 40292]]
Regional........................................................ 292 170 174
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
EPA Standard for Vehicle with SI Engine Effective MY 2027 (gram CO2/ton-mile)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Urban........................................................... 299 189 196
Multi-Purpose................................................... 308 191 198
Regional........................................................ 321 187 188
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table V-9--Proposed NHTSA Fuel Consumption Standards for MY 2027 Class 2b-8 Vocational Vehicles
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Light heavy-
Duty cycle duty class 2b- Medium heavy- Heavy heavy-
5 duty class 6-7 duty class 8
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NHTSA Standard for Vehicle with CI Engine Effective MY 2027 (Fuel Consumption gallon per 1,000 ton-mile)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Urban........................................................... 26.7191 16.8959 17.8782
Multi-Purpose................................................... 27.5049 17.0923 17.9764
Regional........................................................ 28.6837 16.6994 17.0923
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NHTSA Standard for Vehicle with SI Engine Effective MY 2027 (Fuel Consumption gallon per 1,000 ton-mile)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Urban........................................................... 33.6446 21.2670 22.0547
Multi-Purpose................................................... 34.6574 21.4921 22.2797
Regional........................................................ 36.1202 21.0420 21.1545
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
As with the other regulatory categories of heavy-duty vehicles,
NHTSA and EPA are are proposing standards that apply to Class 2b-8
vocational vehicles at the time of production, and EPA is proposing
standards for a specified period of time in use (e.g., throughout the
regulatory useful life of the vehicle). The derivation of the standards
for these vehicles, as well as details about the proposed provisions
for certification and implementation of these standards, are discussed
in more detail later in this notice and in the draft RIA.
(b) Proposed HFC Leakage Standards
The Phase 1 GHG standards do not include standards to control
direct HFC emissions from air conditioning systems on vocational
vehicles. EPA deferred such standards due to ``the complexity in the
build process and the potential for different entities besides the
chassis manufacturer to be involved in the air conditioning system
production and installation''. See 76 FR 57194. During our stakeholder
outreach conducted for Phase 2, we learned that the majority of
vocational vehicles are sold as cab-completes with the dashboard-
mounted air conditioning systems installed by the chassis manufacturer.
For those vehicles that have A/C systems installed by a second stage
manufacturer, EPA is proposing revisions to our regulations that would
resolve the issues identified in Phase 1, in what we believe is a
practical and feasible manner, as described below in Section V.E.
For the above reasons, in Phase 2, EPA now believes that it is
reasonable to propose A/C refrigerant leakage standards for Class 2b-8
vocational vehicles, beginning with the 2021 model year. Chassis sold
as cab-completes typically have air conditioning systems installed by
the chassis manufacturer. For these configurations, the process for
certifying that low leakage components are used would follow the system
in place currently for comparable systems in tractors. In the case
where a chassis manufacturer would rely on a second stage manufacturer
to install a compliant air conditioning system, the chassis
manufacturer must follow the proposed delegated assembly provisions
described below in Section V.E.
(4) Proposed Exemptions and Exclusions
(a) Proposed Standards for Emergency Vehicles
Emergency vehicles are covered by the Phase 1 program at the same
level of stringency as any other vocational vehicle. In discussions
with representatives of the Fire Apparatus Manufacturers Association,
the agencies have learned that chassis manufacturers of fire apparatus
are currently able to obtain compliant engines and tires with the
coefficient of rolling resistance allowing compliance with the Phase 1
standards. The agencies are proposing in Phase 2 to allow emergency
vehicles to meet less stringent standards than other vocational
vehicles. There are two reasons for doing so. First, as the level of
complexity of Phase 2 would increase with the need for additional
technologies aimed to improve driveline efficiency, the compliance
burden would be disproportionately high for a company that manufactures
small volumes of specialized chassis. The ability of such a company to
benefit from averaging would be limited, as would be the ability to
spread compliance costs across many vehicles. The second and more
important reason is that emergency vehicles, which are necessarily
built for high levels of performance and reliability, would likely
sacrifice some levels of function to attain the proposed Phase 2
standards. For example, vehicles with large engines, high-torque
powertrains, and tires designed with deep tread would likely be
deficit-producing vehicles if manufacturers needed to certify an
emergency vehicle family to the primary proposed standards.
In the MY 2017-2025 light-duty rule, the agencies adopted an
exclusion for emergency and police vehicles from GHG and fuel economy
standards.\265\ As described in that rule, the unique features of
purpose-built emergency vehicles, such as high rolling resistance
[[Page 40293]]
tires, reinforced suspensions, and special calibrations of engines and
transmissions, have the effect of raising their GHG emissions. The
agencies determined in that rule that an exemption was appropriate
because the technological feasibility issues for emergency vehicles
went beyond those of other high-performance vehicles, and vehicles with
these performance characteristics must continue to be made available in
the market. The agencies do not believe that non-emergency vocational
vehicles are designed for the severe duty cycles that are experienced
by emergency vehicles, and therefore do not face the same potential
constraints in terms of vehicle design and the application of
technology.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\265\ See 77 FR 62653, October 12, 2012.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
In conducting an independent technological feasibility assessment
for heavy-duty emergency vehicles, the agencies believe that some GHG
and fuel saving technologies could reasonably be applied without
compromising vehicle utility. However, these vehicles are designed,
built, and operated so differently than other vocational vehicles that
we believe keeping them in the same averaging sets as other vocational
vehicles in Phase 2 would not be appropriate and thus a separate
standard (evaluated from a baseline specific to these vehicles) is
warranted.
Our feasibility analysis and the available tire data indicate that
emergency vehicle manufacturers can reasonably continue to apply tires
with the Phase 1 level tire CRR performance, in the Phase 2 program. We
have also learned that a variety of vehicle-level technologies are
being developed specifically for emergency vehicles, to maintain on-
board electronics without excessive idling. Modern fire apparatus and
ambulances typically have multiple computers and other electronic
devices on-board, each of which requires power and continues to draw
electricity when the vehicle is parked and the crew is responding to an
emergency, which could take several hours. Most on-board batteries and
alternators are not capable of sustaining these power demands for any
length of time, so emergency vehicles must either operate in a high-
idle mode or adopt one of several possible technologies that can assist
with electrical load management. Some of these technologies can enable
an emergency vehicle to shut down the main engine and drastically
reduce idle emissions.\266\ NHTSA and EPA have not based the proposed
emergency vehicle standards on use of idle reduction technologies
because we do not believe the regular neutral idle and stop-start
technologies we project for other vocational vehicles could apply
equally to emergency vehicles, and we do not have enough information
about this subset of idle reduction technologies that is designed for
extended electrical load management to either estimate an effectiveness
value or determine an appropriate market adoption rate. The agencies
request comment on whether we should include any market adoption rate
of idle reduction technologies for emergency vehicles, as part of the
basis for the Phase 2 emergency vocational vehicle standard.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\266\ See ``How to solar power a fire truck or ambulance,''
available at https://www.firerescue1.com/fire-products/apparatus-accessories/articles/1934440-How-to-solar-power-a-fire-truck-or-ambulance/, accessed November 2014.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
To address both the technical feasibility and the compliance
burden, the agencies are proposing less stringent standards that also
have a simplified compliance method. Because the potential trade-offs
between performance and fuel efficiency apply equally to any emergency
vehicle manufacturer, the agencies propose that these less stringent
standards would apply for commercial chassis manufacturers of emergency
vehicles, as well as for custom chassis manufacturers. The standard for
vehicles identified at the time of certification as being intended for
emergency service would be predicated solely on the continued use of
lower rolling resistance tires, at the Phase 2 baseline level (i.e.
compliant with Phase 1).\267\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\267\ See 40 CFR 86.1803-01 for the applicable definition of
emergency vehicle.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
With respect to standards for engines used in these emergency
vehicles, based on what we have learned from discussions with engine
manufacturers, we understand that engines designed for heavy-duty
emergency vehicles are generally higher-emitting than other engines.
However, if we maintain a separate engine standard and regulatory
flexibility such as ABT, fire apparatus manufacturers would be able to
obtain engines that, on average, meet the proposed Phase 2 engine
standards. The agencies further recognize that the proposed engine map
inputs to GEM in the primary program would pose a difficulty for
emergency vehicle manufacturers. If we required engine-specific inputs
then these manufacturers would have to apply extra vehicle technologies
to compensate for the necessary but higher-emitting engine. The
agencies are therefore not proposing to recognize engine performance as
part of the vehicle standard for emergency vehicles. Manufacturers of
these vehicles would be expected to install an engine that is certified
to the applicable separate Phase 2 engine standard. However, under the
simplified compliance method we are proposing, emergency vehicle
manufacturers would not follow the otherwise applicable Phase 2
proposed approach of entering an engine map in GEM. Instead a Phase 1
style GEM interface would be made available, where an EPA default
engine specified by rule would be simulated in GEM. The agencies
request comments on the merits of using an equation-based compliance
approach for emergency vehicle manufacturers, similar to the approach
proposed for trailer manufacturers and described in Section IV.F.
This approach is consistent with the approach recommended by the
Small Business Advocacy Review Panel, which believed it would be
feasible for small emergency vehicle manufacturers to install a Phase
2-compliant engine, but recommended a simplified certification approach
to reduce the number of required GEM inputs. Consistent with the
recommendations of this panel, the agencies are asking for comments on
whether there would be enough fuel consumption and CO2
emissions benefits achieved by use of LRR tires in emergency vehicles
to justify requiring small business emergency chassis manufacturers to
adopt them.
We expect some commercial chassis manufacturers that serve the
emergency vehicle market may have the ability to meet the proposed
Phase 2 standards of our primary program when including emergency
vehicles in their averaging sets. Even so, we are proposing that they
have the option to comply with the less stringent standards, because
there are fewer opportunities to improve fuel efficiency on emergency
vehicles, which (as noted) are designed for high levels of performance
and severe duty. The agencies expect that this compliance path would be
most needed by custom chassis manufacturers who serve the emergency
vehicle market. Custom chassis manufacturers typically offer a narrow
range of products with low sales volumes. Therefore, fleet averaging
would provide a lower level of compliance flexibility, and there would
be less opportunity to spread the costs of developing advanced
technologies across a large number of vehicles. Further, many custom
chassis manufacturers do not qualify as small entities under the SBA
regulations. Thus, the agencies believe that existence of program-wide
ABT does not vitiate
[[Page 40294]]
the need to propose alternative, less stringent standards for emergency
vehicles.
Table V-10 below presents the proposed numerical standards to which
an emergency vehicle chassis would be certified under this provision.
Emergency vehicles certified to these proposed emergency vehicle
standards would be ineligible to generate credits. The proposed
standards shown below were derived by building a model of three
baseline vehicles (LHD, MHD, HHD) using attributes similar to those
developed for the primary program as assigned to the Urban drive cycle
subcategories. By modeling a 2021-compliant engine and tires with CRR
of 7.7, the MY 2021 standards were derived using GEM. Details of these
configurations are provided in the draft RIA Chapter 2.
Table V-10--Proposed Standards for Class 2b-8 Emergency Vehicles for MY 2021 and Later
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Light heavy-
Implementation year duty class 2b- Medium heavy- Heavy heavy-
5 duty class 6-7 duty class 8
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Proposed EPA Emergency Vehicle Standard (gram CO2/ton-mile)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MY2021.......................................................... 312 195 215
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Proposed NHTSA Emergency Vehicle Standard (Fuel Consumption gallon per 1,000 ton-mile)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MY2021.......................................................... 30.6483 19.1552 21.1198
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The agencies have estimated the costs of vocational vehicle
technology packages, as presented below in Table V-20 to Table V-22.
The technologies on which the proposed emergency vehicle standards are
based include engines, LRR tires, and leak-tight air conditioning
systems. Using the estimated costs of those technologies as presented,
the agencies estimate that the average cost for a heavy heavy-duty or
medium-heavy-duty emergency vehicle to meet the proposed emergency
vehicle standards would be approximately $463 in MY 2027, and the
average cost for a light heavy-duty emergency vehicle would be
approximately $497 in MY 2027. To derive these estimates, the agencies
have combined the $7 cost of LRR tires that is presented in Table V-20
with the engine and air conditioning costs presented in Table V-22. The
agencies are not aware of any emergency vehicle manufacturer that
produces engines, thus most of these costs would be borne by engine
manufacturers. While some of the added engine costs may be passed on to
emergency vehicle manufacturers and vehicle owners/operators, the
overall costs of these technologies are on the order of the Phase 1
vocational vehicle program costs, which are highly cost-effective.
To ensure that only emergency vehicle chassis would be able to
certify to these less stringent standards, the agencies propose that
manufacturers identify vehicles using the definition at 40 CFR 86.1803-
01, which for Phase 2 purposes would be an ambulance or a fire truck.
Manufacturers have informed us that it is feasible to identify such
vehicles using sales codes or the presence of specialty attributes. The
agencies request comment on the merits and drawbacks of aligning the
definition of emergency vehicle for purposes of the Phase 2 program
with the definition of emergency vehicle for purposes of the light-duty
GHG provisions under 40 CFR 86.1818, which includes additional vehicles
such as those used by law enforcement.
According to the International Council on Clean Transportation
(ICCT), less than one percent of all new heavy-duty truck registrations
from 2003 to 2007 were emergency vehicles.\268\ On average, the ICCT's
data suggest that approximately 5,700 new emergency vehicles are sold
in the U.S. each year; about 0.8 percent of the 3.4 million new heavy-
duty trucks registered between 2003 and 2007. According to the Fire
Apparatus Manufacturers Association, the annual VMT of the newest
emergency vehicles ranges from approximately 2,000 to 8,000 miles, as
documented in their 2004 Fire Apparatus Duty Cycle White Paper.\269\
Because there are relatively few of these vehicles and they travel a
relatively small number of miles, the agencies believe that setting
less stringent GHG and fuel consumptions standards for these vehicles
would not detract from the greater benefits of this rulemaking, and
such separate standards are warranted in any case.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\268\ ICCT, May 2009, ``Heavy-Duty Vehicle Market Analysis:
Vehicle Characteristics & Fuel Use, Manufacturer Market Shares.''
\269\ Fire Apparatus Manufacturer's Association, Fire Apparatus
Duty Cycle White Paper, August 2004, available at https://www.deepriverct.us/firehousestudy/reports/Apparatus-Duty-Cycle.pdf.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
(b) Possible Standards for Other Custom Chassis Manufacturers
The agencies request comment on extending the above simplified
compliance procedure and less stringent Phase 2 standards to other
custom chassis manufacturers--those who offer such a narrow range of
products that averaging is not of practical value as a compliance
flexibility, and for whom there are not large sales volumes over which
to distribute technology development costs. Custom chassis
manufacturers that are not small businesses must comply with the Phase
1 standards and are generally doing so, by installing tires with the
required coefficient of rolling resistance. We are aware of a handful
of U.S. chassis manufacturers serving the recreational vehicle and bus
markets who we believe would have a disproportionate compliance burden,
should we require compliance with the primary proposed Phase 2
standards.
According to the MOVES model forecast, there will be approximately
1,000 commercial intercity coach buses, 5,000 transit buses, 40,000
school buses, and 90,000 recreational vehicles manufactured new for MY
2018.\270\ In each of these markets, specialty chassis manufacturers
compete with large vertically integrated manufacturers. We request
comment on the merits of offering less stringent standards to small
volume chassis manufacturers, and seek comment as well as to other
factors the agencies should consider to ensure this
[[Page 40295]]
approach would not have unintended consequences for businesses
competing in the vocational vehicle market.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\270\ Vehicle populations are estimated using MOVES2014. More
information on projecting populations in MOVES is available in the
following report: USEPA (2015). ``Population and Activity of On-road
Vehicles in MOVES2014--Draft Report'' Docket No. EPA-HQ-OAR-2014-
0827.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
If the agencies were to adopt less stringent standards for custom
non-emergency chassis manufacturers, we would expect to limit this by
setting a maximum number of eligible vocational chassis annually for
each such manufacturer. The agencies request comment on an appropriate
sales volume to qualify for these possible standards, and also request
comment as to whether the sales volume thresholds should be different
for different markets. We further request comment on whether it would
adversely affect business competitiveness if custom chassis
manufacturers were held to a different standard than commercial chassis
manufacturers, and whether the agencies should consider allowing
commercial chassis manufacturers competing in these markets to sell a
limited number of chassis certified to a less stringent standard.
As an alternative approach, the agencies request comment on
providing custom chassis manufacturers with additional lead time to
comply. For example, we could allow such manufacturers an additional
one or two years to meet each level of the primary proposed vocational
vehicle standards.
If the agencies pursued the approach of less stringent standards,
we would likely adopt a simplified compliance procedure similar to the
one proposed for emergency vehicles. Custom chassis manufacturers would
not follow the otherwise applicable Phase 2 proposed approach of
entering an engine map in GEM. Instead, a Phase 1 style GEM interface
would be made available, where an EPA default engine specified by rule
would be simulated in GEM. The vehicle-level standard would be
predicated on a simpler set of technologies than the primary proposed
Phase 2 standard, most likely lower rolling resistance tires and idle
reduction. Because these would not be emergency vehicles, we believe
the performance of these vehicles would not be compromised by requiring
improvement in tire CRR beyond that of the Phase 1 level. The agencies
request comment on whether we should develop separate standards for
different vehicle types such as recreational vehicles and buses.
The Small Business Advocacy Review Panel recommended that EPA seek
comment on how to design a small business vocational vehicle exemption
by means of a custom chassis volume exemption and what sales volume
would be an appropriate threshold. The agencies seek comments on all
aspects of an approach for custom vocational vehicle chassis
manufacturers that would enable us to adopt a final Phase 2 program
that would be consistent with the recommendations of the panel.
(c) Off-Road and Low-Speed Vocational Vehicle Exemptions
The agencies are proposing to continue the exemptions in Phase 1
for off-road and low-speed vocational vehicles, with revision. See
generally 76 FR 57175. These provisions currently apply for vehicles
that are defined as ``motor vehicles'' per 40 CFR 85.1703, but may
conduct most of their operations off-road, such as drill rigs, mobile
cranes and yard hostlers. Vehicles qualifying under these provisions
must be built with engines certified to meet the applicable engine
standard, but need not comply with a vehicle-level GHG or fuel
consumption standard. In Phase 1, this typically means not needing to
install tires with a lower coefficient of rolling resistance. Because
manufacturers choosing to exempt vehicles (but not engines) based on
the criteria for heavy-duty off road vehicles at 40 CFR 1037.631 and 49
CFR 523.2 will for the first time provide a description to the agencies
of how they meet the qualifications for this exemption in their end-of-
the year reports in the spring of 2015, we do not have information
beyond what we knew at the time of the Phase 1 rules regarding how
broadly this provision is being used. Nonetheless, we are proposing to
discontinue the criterion for exemption based solely on use of tires
with maximum speed rating at or below 55 mph. The agencies are
concerned that tires are so easily replaced that this would be an
unreliable way to identify vehicles that truly need special
consideration. We are proposing to retain the qualifying criteria
related to design and use of the vehicle. We invite comments on the
proposed revisions to the qualifying criteria in the regulations,
including whether the rated speed of the tires should be retained, and
whether vehicles intended to be covered by this provision have
characteristics that are captured by the proposed criteria.
C. Feasibility of the Proposed Vocational Vehicle Standards
This section describes the agencies' technological feasibility and
cost analysis in greater detail. Further detail on all of these
technologies can be found in the draft RIA Chapter 2.4 and Chapter 2.9.
The variation in the design and use of vocational vehicles has led the
agencies to project different technology solutions for each regulatory
subcategory. Manufacturers may also find additional means to reduce
emissions and lower fuel consumption than the technologies identified
by the agencies, and of course may adopt any compliance path they deem
most advantageous. The focus of this section is on the feasibility of
the proposed standards for non-emergency vocational vehicles. Further,
the agencies project that these technology packages would also be
feasible for vocational tractors. With typical driving patterns having
limited operation at highway speeds, vocational tractors would
appropriately be classified as vocational vehicles, with proposed
standards that would not be predicated on the performance of
aerodynamic devices. The agencies propose to allow vocational tractors
to follow the same subcategory assignment process as other vocational
vehicles. For example, a beverage tractor intended for local delivery
routes may have a driving pattern that is reasonably represented by the
proposed Urban test cycle. The agencies request comment on whether
vocational tractors would be deficit-generating vehicles if certified
as vocational vehicles, where performance would be measured against the
proposed vocational vehicle baseline configurations. For example, if a
tractor were designed with a higher power engine to carry a heavier
payload than presumed in the GEM baseline for that subcategory, would
GEM return a value that poorly represents the real world performance of
that vehicle, and if so, would that merit a different certification
approach for vocational tractors?
NHTSA and EPA collected information on the cost and effectiveness
of fuel consumption and CO2 emission reducing technologies
from several sources. The primary sources of information were the
Southwest Research Institute evaluation of heavy-duty vehicle fuel
efficiency and costs for NHTSA,\271\ the 2010 National Academy of
Sciences report of Technologies and Approaches to Reducing the Fuel
Consumption of Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicles,\272\ TIAX's assessment
of technologies to support the NAS panel report,\273\ the technology
cost analysis conducted by
[[Page 40296]]
ICF for EPA,\274\ and the 2009 report from Argonne National Laboratory
on Evaluation of Fuel Consumption Potential of Medium and Heavy Duty
Vehicles through Modeling and Simulation.\275\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\271\ Reinhart, T, 2015. Commercial Medium- and Heavy-Duty (MD/
HD) Truck Fuel Efficiency Technology Study--Reports #1 and #2.
Washington, DC: National Highway Traffic Safety Administration; and
Schubert, R., Chan, M., Law, K. 2015, Commercial Medium- and Heavy-
Duty (MD/HD) Truck Fuel Efficiency Cost Study. Washington, DC:
National Highway Traffic Safety Administration.
\272\ See NAS Report, Note 136, above.
\273\ See TIAX 2009, Note 137, above.
\274\ See ICF 2010, Note 139, above.
\275\ Argonne National Laboratory, ``Evaluation of Fuel
Consumption Potential of Medium and Heavy Duty Vehicles through
Modeling and Simulation.'' October 2009
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
(1) What technologies are the agencies considering to reduce the
CO2 emissions and fuel consumption of vocational vehicles?
In assessing the feasibility of the proposed Phase 2 vocational
vehicle standards, the agencies evaluated a suite of technologies,
including workday idle reduction, improved tire rolling resistance,
improved transmissions, improved axles, and weight reduction, as well
as their impact on reducing fuel consumption and GHG emissions. The
agencies also evaluated aerodynamic technologies and full electric
vehicles.
As discussed above, vocational vehicles may be powered by either SI
or CI engines. The technologies and feasibility of the proposed engine
standards are discussed in Section II. At the vehicle level, the
agencies have considered the same suite of technologies and have
applied the same reasoning for including or rejecting these vehicle-
level technologies as part of the basis for the proposed standards,
regardless of whether the vehicle is powered by a CI or SI engine. With
the exception of the MY 2027 proposed standards, the analysis below
does not distinguish between vehicles with different types of engines.
The resulting proposed vehicle standards do reflect the differences
arising from the performance of different types of engines over the GEM
cycles.
(a) Vehicle Technologies Considered in Standard-Setting
The agencies note that the effectiveness values estimated for the
technologies may represent average values, and do not reflect the
potentially-limitless combination of possible values that could result
from adding the technology to different vehicles. For example, while
the agencies have estimated an effectiveness of 0.5 percent for low
friction axle lubricants, each vehicle could have a unique
effectiveness estimate depending on the baseline axle's oil viscosity
rating. For purposes of this proposed rulemaking, NHTSA and EPA believe
that employing average values for technology effectiveness estimates is
an appropriate way of recognizing the potential variation in the
specific benefits that individual manufacturers (and individual
vehicles) might obtain from adding a given technology. There may be
real world effectiveness that exceeds or falls short of the average,
but on-balance the agencies believe this is the most practicable
approach for determining the wide ranging effectiveness of technologies
in the diverse vocational vehicle arena.
(i) Transmissions
Transmission improvements present a significant opportunity for
reducing fuel consumption and CO2 emissions from vocational
vehicles. Transmission efficiency is important for many vocational
vehicles as their duty cycles involve high percentages of driving under
transient operation. The three categories of transmission improvements
the agencies considered for Phase 2 are driveline optimization,
architectural improvements, and hybrid powertrain systems.
The agencies believe an effective way to derive efficiency
improvements from a transmission is by optimizing it with the engine
and other driveline components to balance both performance needs and
fuel savings. However, many vocational vehicles today are not operating
with such optimized systems. Because customers are able to specify
their preferred components in a highly customized build process, many
vocational vehicles are assembled with components that were designed
more for compatibility than for optimization. To some extent,
vertically integrated manufacturers are able to optimize their
drivelines. However, this is not widespread in the vocational vehicle
sector, resulting primarily, from the multi-stage manufacture process.
The agencies project transmission and driveline optimization will yield
a substantial proportion of vocational vehicle fuel efficiency and GHG
emissions reduction improvements for Phase 2. On average, we anticipate
that efficiency improvements of about five percent can be achieved from
optimization, or deep integration of drivelines. However, we are not
assigning a fixed level of improvement; rather we have developed a test
procedure, the powertrain test, for manufacturers to use to obtain
improvement factors representative of their systems. See Section V.E
and the draft RIA Chapter 3 for a discussion of this proposed test
procedure. Depending on the test cycle and level of integration, the
agencies believe improvement factors greater than ten percent above the
baseline vehicle performance could be achieved. To obtain such benefits
across more of the vocational vehicle fleet, the agencies believe there
is opportunity for manufacturers to form strategic partnerships and to
explore commercial pathways to deeper driveline integration. For
example, one partnership of an engine manufacturer and a transmission
manufacturer has led to development of driveline components that
deliver improved fuel efficiency based on optimization that could not
be realized without sharing of critical data.\276\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\276\ See Cummins-Eaton partnership at https://smartadvantagepowertrain.com/
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
The agencies project other related transmission technologies would
be recognized over the powertrain test along with driveline
optimization. These include improved mechanical gear efficiency, more
sophisticated shift strategies, more aggressive torque converter
lockups, transmission friction reduction, and reduced parasitic losses,
as described in the 2009 TIAX report at 4.5.2. Each of these attributes
would be simulated in GEM using default values, unless the powertrain
test were utilized by the certifying manufacturer. The draft RIA
Chapter 4 explains each parameter that would be set as a fixed value in
GEM. The expected benefits of improved gear efficiency, shift logic,
and torque converter lockup are included in the total projected
effectiveness of optimized conventional transmissions using the
powertrain test.
Transmission efficiency could also be improved in the time frame of
the proposed rules by changes in the architecture of conventional
transmissions. Most vocational vehicles currently use torque converter
automatic transmissions (AT), especially in Classes 2b-6. According to
the 2009 TIAX report, approximately 70 percent of Class 3-6 box and
bucket trucks use AT, and all refuse trucks, urban buses, and motor
coaches use AT.\277\ Automatic transmissions offer acceleration
benefits over drive cycles with frequent stops, which can enhance
productivity. However, with the diversity of vocational vehicles and
drive cycles, other kinds of transmission architectures can meet
customer needs, including automated manual transmissions (AMT) and even
some manual transmissions (MT).\278\
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\277\ See TIAX 2009, Note 137, above.
\278\ See https://www.truckinginfo.com/channel/equipment/article/story/2014/10/2015-medium-duty-trucks-the-vehicles-and-trends-to-look-for/page/3.aspx (downloaded November 2014).
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One type of architectural improvement the agencies project will be
developed by manufacturers of all transmission architectures is
increased number of gears. The benefit of adding
[[Page 40297]]
more gears varies depending on whether the gears are added in the range
where most operation occurs. The TIAX 2009 report projected that 8-
speed transmissions could incrementally reduce fuel consumption by 2 to
3 percent over a 6-speed automatic transmission, for Class 3-6 box and
bucket trucks, refuse haulers, and transit buses.\279\ Although the
agencies estimate the improvement could on average be about two percent
for the adding of two gears in the range where significant vehicle
operation occurs, we are not assigning a fixed improvement based solely
on number of transmission gears. Manufacturers would enter the number
of gears and gear ratios into GEM and the model would simulate the
efficiency benefit over the applicable test cycle. Because a public
version of proposed GEM is being released with these proposed rules,
stakeholders are free to use this tool to explore the effectiveness of
different numbers of gears and gear ratios over the proposed test
cycles. The agencies request comment on all aspects of the GEM tool,
including how it models transmissions and shifting strategies. More
details on GEM are available in the draft RIA Chapter 4.
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\279\ See TIAX 2009, Note 137, Table 4-48.
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Other architectural changes that the agencies project will offer
efficiency improvements include improved automated manual transmissions
(AMT) and introduction of dual clutch transmissions (DCT). Newer
versions of AMT are showing significant improvements in reliability,
such that the current generation of transmissions with this
architecture is more likely to retain resale value and win customer
acceptance than early models.\280\ The agencies believe AMT generally
compare favorably to manual transmissions in fuel efficiency, and while
the degree of improvement is highly driver-dependent, it can be two
percent or greater, depending on the drive cycle. See Section III for
additional discussion of AMT. The agencies are not assigning fixed
average performance levels to compare an AMT with a traditional
automatic transmission. Although the lack of a torque converter offers
AMT an efficiency advantage in one respect, the lag in power during
shifts is a disadvantage. For Phase 2, the agencies have developed
validated models of both AMT and AT, as described in the draft RIA
Chapter 4. Manufacturers installing AMT or AT would enter the relevant
inputs to GEM and the simulation would calculate the performance. Dual
clutch transmissions (DCT) designed for medium heavy-duty vocational
vehicles are already in production, and could reasonably be expected to
be adapted for other weight classes of vocational vehicles during the
time frame of Phase 2.\281\ Based on supplier conversations,
manufacturers intend to match varying DCT designs with the diverse
needs of the heavy-duty market. The agencies do not yet have a
validated DCT model in GEM, and we are not assigning a fixed
performance level for DCT, though we expect the per-vehicle fuel
efficiency improvement due to switching from automatic to DCT to be in
the range of three percent over the GEM vocational vehicle test cycles.
Selection of transmission architecture type (Manual, AMT, AT, DCT)
would be made by manufacturers at the time of certification, and GEM
would either use this input information to simulate that transmission
using algorithms as described in the draft RIA Chapter 4, or fixed
improvements may be assigned. The agencies are assigning fixed levels
of improvement that vary by test cycle in GEM for AMT when replacing a
manual, which for vocational vehicles would be in the HHD Regional
subcategory. If a manufacturer elected not to conduct powertrain
testing to obtain specific improvements for use of a DCT, GEM would
simulate a DCT as if it were an AMT, with no fixed assigned benefit.
The draft RIA at Chapter 2.9 describes the projected effectiveness of
each type of transmission improvement for each vocational vehicle test
cycle.
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\280\ See NACFE Confidence Report: Electronically Controlled
Transmissions, at https://www.truckingefficiency.org/powertrain/automated-manual-transmissions (January 2015). See also https://www.overdriveonline.com/auto-vs-manual-transmission-autos-finding-solid-ground-by-sharing-data-with-engines/ (accessed November 2014).
\281\ See Eaton Announcement September 2014, available at https://www.ttnews.com/articles/lmtbase.aspx?storyid=2969&t=Eaton-Unveils-Medium-Duty-Procision-Transmission.
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Hybrid powertrain systems are included under transmission
technologies because, depending on the design and degree of
hybridization, they may either replace a conventional transmission or
be deeply integrated with a conventional transmission. Further, these
systems are often manufactured by companies that also manufacture
conventional transmissions.
The agencies are including hybrid powertrains as a technology on
which some of the proposed vocational vehicle standards are predicated.
We project a variety of mild and strong hybrid systems, with a wide
range of effectiveness. Mild hybrid systems that offer an engine stop-
start feature are discussed below under workday idle reduction. For
hybrid powertrains, we are estimating a 22 to 25 percent fuel
efficiency improvement over the powertrain test, depending on the duty
cycle in GEM for the applicable subcategory. The agencies obtained
these estimates by projecting a 27 percent effectiveness over the ARB
Transient cycle, and zero percent over the constant-speed highway
cruise cycles. With the proposed cycle weightings, this calculates to a
25 percent improvement over the Urban cycle, and 22 percent over the
Multi-Purpose cycle. According to the NREL Final Evaluation of UPS
Diesel Hybrid-Electric Delivery Vans, the improvement of a hybrid over
a conventional diesel in gallons per ton-mile on a chassis dynamometer
over the NYC Composite test cycle was 28 percent.\282\ NREL
characterizes the NYC Composite cycle as more aggressive than most of
the observed field data points from the study, and may represent an
ideal hybrid cycle in terms of low average speed, high stops per mile,
and high kinetic intensity. NREL noted that most of the observed field
data points were reasonably represented by the HTUF4 cycle, over which
the chassis dynamometer results showed a 31 percent improvement in
gallons per ton-mile. In units of grams CO2 per mile, NREL
reported these test results as 22 percent improvement over the NYC
Composite cycle and 26 percent improvement over the HTUF4 cycle. Based
on these results, and the fact that any improvement from strong hybrids
in Phase 2 would not be simulated in GEM, but rather would be evaluated
using the powertrain test, the agencies deemed it reasonable to
estimate a conservative 27 percent effectiveness over the ARB Transient
in setting the stringency of the proposed standards.
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\282\ Lammert, M., Walkowivz, K., NREL, Eighteen-Month Final
Evaluation of UPS Second Generation Diesel Hybrid-Electric Delivery
Vans, September 2012, NREL/TP-5400-55658.
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The Phase 1 standards were not predicated on any adoption of hybrid
powertrains in the vocational vehicle sector. Because the first
implementation year of Phase 1 came just three years after
promulgation, there was insufficient lead time for development and
deployment of the technology.\283\ In addition, our proposed Phase 2
[[Page 40298]]
vocational vehicle GEM test cycles are expected to better recognize
hybrid technology effectiveness than the Phase 1 hybrid test cycle,
especially in the Urban subcategory. Further, our Phase 2 cost analysis
shows that hybrid systems designed for LHD and MHD vocational vehicles
would cost less than the costs we were projecting in Phase 1. The
agencies believe the Phase 2 rulemaking timeframes would offer
sufficient lead time to develop, demonstrate, and conduct reliability
testing for technologies that are still maturing, including these
hybrid technologies.
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\283\ In addition to concerns over adequacy of lead time, the
agencies described concerns over ``modest'' emission reductions. See
76 FR 57234. Even so, in Phase 1 the agencies adopted provisions for
hybrids to generate advanced technology credits.
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Several types of vocational vehicles are well suited for hybrid
powertrains, and are among the early adopters of this technology.
Vehicles such as utility or bucket trucks, delivery vehicles, refuse
haulers, and buses have operational usage patterns with either a
significant amount of stop-and-go activity or spend a large portion of
their operating hours idling the main engine to operate a PTO unit.
The industry is currently developing many variations of hybrid
powertrain systems. There are a few hybrid systems in the market today
and several more under development. In addition, energy storage systems
are improving.\284\ Heavy-duty customers are getting used to these
systems with the number of demonstration products on the road. Even so,
some manufacturers may be uncertain how much investment to make in this
technology without clear signals about future market demand. A list of
hybrid manufacturers and their products intended for the vocational
market is provided in the draft RIA Chapter 2.9.
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\284\ Green Fleet Magazine, The Latest Developments in EV
Battery Technology, November 2013, available at https://www.greenfleetmagazine.com/article/story/2013/12/the-latest-developments-in-ev-battery-technology-grn/page/1.aspx.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Some low cost products on the simple end of the hybrid spectrum are
available that minimize battery demand through the use of
ultracapacitors or only provide power assist at low speeds. Our
regulations define a hybrid system as one that has the capacity for
energy storage.\285\ In the light-duty GHG program a mild hybrid is
defined as including an integrated starter generator, a high-voltage
battery (above 12v), and a capacity to recover at least 15 percent of
the braking energy. In such systems some accessories are usually
electrified. Strong hybrids are typically referred to as those that
have larger energy recovery and storage capacity, defined at 65 percent
braking energy recovery in the light-duty GHG program. Although
integration of a strong hybrid system may enable installation of a
downsized engine in some cases, the agencies have not projected any
vocational engine downsizing for any hybrid systems as part of our
Phase 2 technology assessment. This is in part to be conservative in
our cost estimates, and in part because in some applications a smaller
engine may not be acceptable if it would risk that performance could be
sacrificed during some portion of a work day. Depending on the drive
cycle and units of measurement, strong hybrids developed to date have
seen fuel consumption and CO2 emissions reductions between
20 and 50 percent in the field.\286\
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\285\ EPA's and NHTSA's regulations define a hybrid vehicle as
one that ``includes energy storage features . . . in addition to an
internal combustion engine or other engine using consumable chemical
fuel. . . .'' at 40 CFR 1037.801 and 49 CFR 535.4.
\286\ Van Amburg, Bill, CALSTART, Status Report: Alternative
Fuels and High-Efficiency Vehicles, Presentation to National
Association of Fleet Administrators (NAFA) 2014 Institute and Expo,
April 8, 2014.
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The agencies are working to reduce barriers related to hybrid
vehicle certification. In Phase 1, there is a significant test burden
associated with demonstrating the GHG and fuel efficiency performance
of vehicles with hybrid powertrain systems. Manufacturers must obtain a
conventional vehicle that is identical to the hybrid vehicle in every
way except the transmission, test both, and compare the results.\287\
In Phase 2, the agencies are proposing that manufacturers would conduct
powertrain testing on the hybrid system, and the results of that
testing would become inputs to GEM for simulation of the non-powertrain
features of the hybrid vehicle, removing a significant test burden.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\287\ See test procedures at 40 CFR 1037.555.
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In discussions with manufacturers during the development of Phase
2, the agencies have learned that meeting the on-board diagnostic
requirements for criteria pollutant engine certification continues to
be a potential impediment to adoption of hybrid systems. See Section
XIV.A.1 for a discussion of regulatory changes proposed to reduce the
non-GHG certification burden for engines paired with hybrid powertrain
systems. The agencies have also received a letter from the California
Air Resources Board requesting consideration of supplemental
NOX testing of hybrids. The agencies request comment on the
Air Resources Board's letter and recommendations.\288\
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\288\ California Air Resources Board. Letter from Michael Carter
to Matthew Spears dated December 29, 2014. CARB Request for
Supplemental NOX Emission Check for Hybrid Vehicles.
Docket EPA-HA-OAR-2014-0827.
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(ii) Axles
The agencies are considering two axle technologies for the
vocational vehicle sector. The first is advanced low friction axle
lubricants. Under contract with NHTSA, SwRI tested improved driveline
lubrication and found measurable improvements by switching from current
mainstream products to newer formulations focusing on modified
viscometric effects.\289\ Synthetic lubricant formulations can offer
superior thermal and oxidative stability compared to petroleum or
mineral based lubricants. The agencies believe that a 0.5 percent
improvement in vocational vehicle efficiency (as for tractors) is
achievable through the application of low friction axle lubricants, and
have included that value as a fixed value in GEM. Beyond the use of
different lubricant formulations, some axle manufacturers are offering
products that achieve efficiency improvements by varying the
lubrication levels with vehicle speed, reducing churning losses. The
agencies request comment on whether we could accept these systems as
qualifying for a fixed GEM improvement value. If a manufacturer wishes
to demonstrate the benefit of a specific axle technology, an off-cycle
technology credit would be necessary. To support such an application,
manufacturers could conduct a rear axle efficiency test, as described
in the draft RIA Chapter 3.8. Proposed regulations for this test
procedure can be found at 40 CFR 1037.560. Our estimated axle
lubricating costs do not include operational costs such as refreshing
lubricants on a periodic basis. Based on supplier information, it is
likely that some advanced lubricants may have a longer drain interval
than traditional lubricants. We are estimating the axle lubricating
costs for HHD to be the same as for tractors since those vehicles
likewise typically have three axles. However, for LHD and MHD
vocational vehicles, we scaled down the cost of this technology to
reflect the presence of a single rear axle.
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\289\ Reinhart, T.E. (June 2015). Commercial Medium- and Heavy-
Duty Truck Fuel Efficiency Technology Study--Report #1. (Report No.
DOT HS 812 146). Washington, DC: National Highway Traffic Safety
Administration (the 2015 NHTSA Technology Study). For axle
improvements see T-270 Delivery Truck Vehicle Technology Results.
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The second axle technology the agencies are considering is a design
that enables one of the rear axles to disconnect or otherwise behave as
if it's a non-driven axle, on vehicles with two rear (drive) axles,
commonly referred to as a 6x2 configuration. The agencies have
considered two types of 6x2 configurations for vocational vehicles:
[[Page 40299]]
Those that are engaged full time on a vehicle, and those that may be
engaged only during some types of vehicle operation, such as only when
operating at highway cruise speeds. Some early versions of 6x2
technology offered by manufacturers were not accepted by vehicle
owners. When the second drive axle is no longer powered, traction may
be sacrificed in some cases. Vehicles with earlier versions of this
technology have seen reduced residual values in the secondary market.
Over the model years covered by the Phase 2 rules, the agencies expect
the market to offer significantly improved versions of this technology,
with traction control maintained at lower speeds and efficiency gains
at highway cruise speeds.\290\ Further information about this
technology is provided in the feasibility of the tractor standards,
Section III, as well as in draft RIA Chapter 2.4.
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\290\ NACFE, Confidence Findings on the Potential of 6x2 Axles,
available at https://nacfe.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/Trucking-Efficiency-6x2-Confidence-Report-FINAL-011314.pdf, January 2014
(downloaded November 2014).
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The efficiency benefit of a 6x2 axle configuration can be duty-
cycle dependent. In many instances, vocational vehicles need to operate
off-highway, such as at a construction site delivering materials or
dumping at a refuse collection facility. In these cases, vehicles with
two drive axles may need the full tractive benefit of both drive axles.
The part-time 6x2 axle technology is not expected to measurably improve
a vehicle's efficiency for vehicles whose normal duty cycle involves
performing significant off-highway work, but the agencies do expect
this technology to be recognized over a highway cruise cycle.
Some vocational vehicles in the HHD Regional subcategory may see a
6x2 axle configuration as a reasonable option for improving fuel
efficiency. As in Phase 1, our vehicle simulation model assumes that
only HHD vehicles have two rear axles, so only these could be
recognized for adopting this technology. Further, the agencies don't
believe the Multipurpose and Urban subcategories include a significant
enough highway cycle weighting in the composite cycle for vehicles that
operate in this manner to experience a benefit from adopting this
technology. The agencies project this can achieve 2 percent benefit at
highway cruise; \291\ thus, we propose to assign a fixed value in GEM
for part-time 6x2 technology of 2.5 percent over the highway cruise
cycles, where the specific improvement would be calculated according to
the composite weighting of the applicable vocational vehicle test
cycle. We request comment on the best way to recognize this technology
in Phase 2, either through a GEM calculation or a fixed assigned value,
for vocational vehicles.
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\291\ See 2015 NHTSA Technology Study, Note 289, T-700 Class 8
Tractor-Trailer Vehicle Technology Results.
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(iii) Lower Rolling Resistance Tires
Tires are the second largest contributor to energy losses of
vocational vehicles, as found in the energy audit conducted by Argonne
National Lab.\292\ There is a wide range of rolling resistance of tires
used on vocational vehicles today. This is in part due to the fact that
the competitive pressure to improve rolling resistance of vocational
vehicle tires has been less than that found in the line haul tire
market. In addition, the drive cycles typical for these applications
often lead vocational vehicle buyers to value tire traction and
durability more heavily than rolling resistance. The agencies
acknowledge there can be tradeoffs when designing a tire for reduced
rolling resistance. These tradeoffs can include characteristics such as
wear resistance, cost and scuff resistance. However, based on input
from tire suppliers, the agencies expect that the LRR tires that will
be available in the Phase 2 timeframe will not compromise performance
parameters such as traction, handling, wear, retreadability, or
structural durability.
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\292\ See Argonne National Laboratory 2009 report, Note 275,
page 91.
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After the Phase 1 rules were promulgated, NHTSA and EPA conducted
supplemental tire testing. Other data that have become available to the
agencies since Phase 1 include pre-certification data provided to
manufacturers by tire suppliers in preparation for MY 2014 vehicle
certification.\293\ The agencies categorized the data by tire position
and vehicle application, so that we have a representation of the
variety of LRR vocational vehicle tires that are available in the
market for the drive position, steer and all-position tires, as well as
wide base singles in all positions. Based on our data set that includes
results from multiple laboratories, drive tires that are intended for
vocational vehicles have an average CRR of 7.8, and steer and all-
position tires that are intended for vocational vehicles have an
average CRR of 6.7. The results also indicate that there are a variety
of wide based single tires that are intended for vocational vehicles,
with an average CRR of 6.6. Each of these data sets shows several
models of commercial tires are available at levels of CRR ranging
generally from 20 percent worse than average to 20 percent better than
average. Further details are presented in the draft RIA Chapter 2.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\293\ See memorandum dated May 2015 on Vocational Vehicle Tire
Rolling Resistance Test Data Evaluation.
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According to the 2015 NHTSA Technology Study, vocational vehicles
are likely to see the most benefits from reduced tire rolling
resistance when they are driving at 55 mph.\294\ This report also found
an influence of vehicle weight on the benefits of LRR tires. The study
found that both vocational vehicles tested had greater benefits of LRR
tires at 100 percent payload than when empty. Also, the T270 delivery
box truck that was 4,000 lbs heavier when fully loaded saw slightly
greater efficiency gains from LRR tires than the F650 flatbed tow truck
over the same cycles. At higher speeds, aerodynamic drag grows, which
reduces the rolling resistance share of total vehicle power demand. In
highly transient cycles, the power required to accelerate the vehicle
inertia overshadows the rolling resistance power demand. In simulation,
GEM represents vocational vehicles with fixed vehicle weights, payloads
and aerodynamic coefficients. Thus, the benefit of LRR tires will be
reflected in GEM differently for vehicles of different weight classes.
There will also be further differences arising from the different test
cycles. Based on preliminary simulations, it appears the vehicles in
GEM most likely to see the greatest fuel efficiency gains from use of
LRR tires are those in the MHD weight classes tested over the Regional
or Multipurpose duty cycles, where one percent efficiency improvement
could be achieved by reducing CRR by four to five percent. Those seeing
the least benefit from LRR tires would likely be Class 8 vehicles
tested over the Urban or Multipurpose cycles, where one percent
efficiency improvement could be achieved by reducing CRR by seven to
eight percent.
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\294\ See 2015 NHTSA Technology Study, Note 289, T-270 Delivery
Truck Vehicle Technology Results
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The agencies propose to continue the light truck (LT) tire CRR
adjustment factor that was adopted in Phase 1. See generally 76 FR
57172-57174. In Phase 1, the agencies developed this adjustment factor
by dividing the overall vocational test average CRR of 7.7 by the LT
vocational average CRR of 8.9. This yielded an adjustment factor of
0.87. After promulgation of the Phase 1 rules, the agencies conducted
additional tire CRR testing on a variety of LT tires, most of which
were designated as all-
[[Page 40300]]
position tires. In addition, manufacturers have submitted to the
agencies pre-certification data that include CRR values provided by
tire suppliers. For the small subset of newer test tires that were
designated as steer tires, the average CRR was 7.8 kg/ton. For the
subset of newer test tires that were designated as drive tires, the
average CRR was 8.6 kg/ton. However all-position tires had an average
CRR of 8.9 kg/ton.\295\ Therefore, for LT vocational vehicle tires, we
propose to continue allowing the measured CRR values to be multiplied
by a 0.87 adjustment factor before entering the values in the GEM for
compliance, because this additional testing has not revealed compelling
information that a change is needed. We request comment on whether the
adjustment factor should be retained, as well as data on which to base
a possible update of its numerical value.
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\295\ See tire memorandum, Note 293.
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As described above in V. B. (4) (c), the agencies are proposing to
continue the Phase 1 off-road and low speed exemptions in Phase 2, with
the proposed revision of discontinuing the option to qualify for this
exemption solely if the vehicle is fitted with tires that have a
maximum speed rating at or below 55 mph. The agencies welcome comments
on this revision.
(iv) Workday Idle Reduction
The Phase 2 idle reduction technologies considered for vocational
vehicles are those that reduce workday idling, unlike the overnight
idling of combination tractors. There are many potential technologies.
The agencies in particular evaluated neutral idle and stop-start
technologies, and the proposed standards are predicated on projected
amounts of penetrations of these technologies, described in Section V.
C. (2) . While neutral idle is necessarily a transmission technology,
stop-start could range from an engine technology to one that would be
installed by a secondary manufacturer under a delegated assembly
agreement.
The agencies are aware that for a vocational vehicle's engine to
turn off during workday driving conditions, there must be a reserve
source of energy to maintain functions such as power steering, cabin
heat, and transmission pressure, among others. Stop-start systems can
be viewed as having a place on the low-cost end of the hybridization
continuum. As described in Section V. C. (2) and in the draft RIA
Chapter 2.9, the agencies are including the cost of energy storage
sufficient to maintain critical onboard systems and restart the engine
as part of the cost of vocational vehicle stop-start packages. The
technologies to capture this energy could include a system of
photovoltaic cells on the roof of a box truck, or regenerative braking.
The technologies to store the captured energy could include a battery
or a hydraulic pressure bladder. More discussion of stop-start
technologies is found in the draft RIA Chapter 2.4.
The agencies intend for the technologies that would qualify to be
recognized in GEM as stop-start to be broadly defined, including those
that may be installed at different stages in the manufacturing process.
The agencies request comment on an appropriate definition of stop-start
technologies for vocational vehicles.
The agencies are also proposing a certification test cycle that
measures the amount of fuel saved and CO2 reduced by these
two primary types of idle reduction technologies: neutral idle and
stop-start. Vocational vehicles frequently also idle while cargo is
loaded or unloaded, and while operating a PTO such as compacting
garbage or operating a bucket. In these rules, the agencies are
proposing that the Regional duty cycle have ten percent idle, the
Multi-purpose cycle have 15 percent idle, and the Urban cycle have 20
percent idle. These estimates are based on publically available data
published by NREL.\296\ To bolster this information, EPA entered into
an interagency agreement with NREL to characterize workday idle among
vocational vehicles. One task of this agreement is to estimate the
nationally representative fraction of idle operation for vocational
vehicles for each proposed regulatory subcategory including a
distinction between idling while driving or stopping in gear, and
idling while parked. The preliminary range of total daily idle
operation per vehicle indicated by this work is about 18 percent to 33
percent when combining the data from all available vehicles. The
agencies request comment regarding the nature of vocational workday
idle operation, including how much of it is in traffic and how much is
while the vehicle is parked. Depending on comments and additional
information received during the comment period, it may be within the
agencies' discretion to adopt different final test cycles, or re-weight
the current test cycles, to better represent real world driving and
better reflect performance of the technology packages. An analysis of
possible vocational vehicle standards derived from alternate
characterizations of idle operation has been prepared by the agencies,
and is available for review in the public docket for this
rulemaking.\297\
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\296\ See NREL data at https://www.nrel.gov/vehiclesandfuels/fleettest/research_fleet_dna.html.
\297\ See memorandum dated May 2015 on Analysis of Possible
Vocational Vehicle Standards Based on Alternative Idle Cycle
Weightings.
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Based on GEM simulations using the currently proposed vocational
vehicle test cycles, the agencies estimate neutral idle for automatic
transmissions to provide fuel efficiency improvements ranging from one
percent to nearly four percent, depending on the regulatory
subcategory. The agencies estimate stop-start to provide fuel
efficiency improvements ranging from 0.5 percent to nearly seven
percent, depending on the regulatory subcategory. Because of the higher
idle weighting factor in the Urban test cycle, vehicles certified in
these subcategories would derive the greatest benefit from applying
idle reduction technologies.
Although the primary program would not simulate vocational vehicles
over a test cycle that includes PTO operation, the agencies are
proposing to continue, with revisions, the hybrid-PTO test option that
was in Phase 1. See 76 FR 57247 and 40 CFR 1037.525 (proposed to be
redesignated as 40 CFR 1037.540). Recall that we are proposing to
regulate vocational vehicles at the incomplete stage when a chassis
manufacturer may not know at the time of certification whether a PTO
will be installed or how the vehicle will be used. Based on stakeholder
input, chassis manufacturers are expected to know whether a vehicle's
transmission is PTO-enabled. However, that is very different from
knowing whether a PTO will actually be installed and how it will be
used. Chassis manufacturers may rarely know whether the PTO-enabled
vehicle will use this capability to maneuver a lift gate on a delivery
vehicle, to operate a utility boom, or merely to keep it as a reserve
item to add value in the secondary market. In cases where a
manufacturer can certify that a PTO with an idle-reduction technology
will be installed either by the chassis manufacturer or by a second
stage manufacturer, the hybrid-PTO test cycle may be utilized by the
certifying manufacturer to measure an improvement factor over the GEM
duty cycle that would otherwise apply to that vehicle. In addition, the
delegated assembly provisions would apply. See Section V.E for a
description of the delegated assembly provisions. See draft RIA Chapter
3 for a discussion of the proposed revisions to the PTO test cycle.
[[Page 40301]]
The agencies have reason to believe there may be a NOX
co-benefit to stop-start idle reduction technologies, e-PTO, and
possibly also to neutral idle. For this to be true, the benefits of
reduced fuel consumption and retained aftertreatment temperature would
have to outweigh any extra emissions due to re-starts. In the draft RIA
Chapter 2.9, there is a more detailed discussion of the relationship
between idle reduction and NOX co-benefits. The agencies
request comments and relevant test data that can help inform this
issue.
(v) Weight Reduction
The agencies believe there is opportunity for weight reduction in
some vocational vehicles. According to the 2009 TIAX report, there are
freight-efficiency benefits to reducing weight on vocational vehicles
that carry heavy cargo, and tax savings potentially available to
vocational vehicles that remain below excise tax weight thresholds.
This report also estimates that the cost effectiveness of weight
reduction over urban drive cycles is potentially greater than the cost
effectiveness of weight reduction for long haul tractors and trailers.
On a city duty cycle, 89 percent of the vehicle's road load is weight
dependent, compared to 38 percent on a steady-state 55 mph duty
cycle.\298\ The 2015 NHTSA Technology Study found that weight reduction
provides a greater fuel efficiency benefit for vehicles driving under
transient conditions than for those operating under constant speeds. In
simulation, the study found that the two Class 6 trucks improved fuel
efficiency by over two percent on the ARB transient cycle by removing
1,100 lbs. Further, SwRI observed that the improvements due to weight
reduction behaved linearly.\299\ The proposed menu of components
available for a vocational vehicle weight credit in GEM is presented in
Section V.E and in the draft RIA Chapter 2.9. It includes fewer options
than for tractors, but the agencies believe there are a number of
feasible material substitution choices at the chassis level, which
could add up to weight savings on the order of a few hundred lbs. The
agencies project that refuse trucks, construction vehicles, and weight-
limited regional delivery vehicles could reasonably apply material
substitution for weight reduction. We do not expect this to be broadly
applicable across many types of vocational vehicles. Based on the
assumed payload in GEM, and depending on the vocational vehicle
subcategory, the agencies believe a reduction of 200 lbs may offer a
fuel efficiency improvement of approximately 1 to 2 percent.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\298\ Helms 2003 as referenced in TIAX 2009.
\299\ See 2015 NHTSA Technology Study, Note 289, T-270 Delivery
Truck Vehicle Technology Results and Vehicle Performance in the F-
650 Truck.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Without more specific data on which to base our assumptions, the
agencies are proposing to allocate 50 percent of any mass reduction to
increased payload, and 50 percent to reduce the chassis weight. We
considered the data on which the tractor weight allocation (1/3:2/3) is
based, but determined this would not be valid for vocational vehicles,
as the underlying data pertained only to long haul tractor-trailers.
The agencies propose that 50 percent of weight removed from vocational
vehicle chassis would be added back as additional payload in GEM. This
suggests an equal likelihood that a vehicle would be reducing weight
for benefits of being lighter, or reducing weight to carry more
payload. The agencies welcome data that could better inform the
fraction of weight reduced for vocational vehicles that is added back
as payload.
The agencies request comment on whether the HD Phase 2 program
should recognize that weight reduction of rotating components provides
an enhanced fuel efficiency benefit over weight reduction on static
components. In theory, as components such as brake rotors, brake drums,
wheels, tires, crankshafts, camshafts, and piston assemblies become
lighter, the power consumption to rotate the masses would be directly
proportional to the mass decrease. Using physical properties of a
rotating component such as a wheel, it is relatively straightforward to
calculate an equivalent mass. However, we do not have enough
information to derive industry average values for equivalent mass, nor
have we evaluated the best way for GEM to account for this.
(vi) HFC Refrigerant From Cabin Air Conditioning (A/C) Systems
Manufacturers can reduce direct A/C leakage emissions by utilizing
leak-tight components. EPA's proposed HFC direct emission leakage
standard would be independent of the CO2 vehicle standard.
Manufacturers could choose components from a menu of leak-reducing
technologies sufficient to comply with the standard, as opposed to
using a test to measure performance. See 76 FR 57194.
In Phase 1, EPA adopted a HFC leakage standard to assure that high-
quality, low-leakage components are used in each air conditioning
system installed in HD pickup trucks, vans, and combination tractors
(see 40 CFR 1037.115). We did not adopt a HFC leakage standard in Phase
1 for systems installed in vocational vehicles. EPA is proposing in
Phase 2 to extend the HFC leakage standard that exists due to Phase 1
requirements to all vocational vehicles. Beginning in the 2021 model
year, EPA proposes that vocational vehicle air conditioning systems
with a refrigerant capacity of greater than 733 grams meet a leakage
rate of 1.50 percent leakage per year and systems with a refrigerant
capacity of 733 grams or lower meet a leakage standard of 11.0 grams
per year. EPA believes this proposed approach of having a leak rate
standard for lower capacity systems and a percent leakage per year
standard for higher capacity systems would result in reduced
refrigerant emissions from all air conditioning systems, while still
allowing manufacturers the ability to produce low-leak, lower capacity
systems in vehicles which require them.
EPA believes that reducing A/C system leakage is both highly cost-
effective and technologically feasible. The availability of low leakage
components is being driven by the air conditioning program in the
light-duty GHG rule which began in the 2012 model year and the HD Phase
1 rule that began in the 2014 model year. The cooperative industry and
government Improved Mobile Air Conditioning program has demonstrated
that new-vehicle leakage emissions can be reduced by 50 percent by
reducing the number and improving the quality of the components,
fittings, seals, and hoses of the A/C system.\300\ All of these
technologies are already in commercial use and exist on some of today's
systems, and EPA does not anticipate any significant improvements in
sealing technologies for model years beyond 2021. However, EPA has
recognized some manufacturers utilize an improved manufacturing process
for air conditioning systems, where a helium leak test is performed on
100 percent of all o-ring fittings and connections after final
assembly. By leak testing each fitting, the manufacturer or supplier is
verifying the o-ring is not damaged during assembly (which is the
primary source of leakage from o-ring fittings), and when calculating
the yearly leak rate for a system, EPA will allow a relative emission
value equivalent to a `seal washer' can be used in place of the value
normally used for an o-ring fitting, when 100 percent helium leak
testing is performed on those fittings. The agencies request comment on
other
[[Page 40302]]
possible improvements in the design of air conditioning systems that
EPA could recognize for the purposes of compliance with this proposed
standard. For example, should the agency recognize electrified
compressors as having a zero leak rate, and should we allow vehicles
fitted with electrified compressors to use a simplified version of the
compliance reporting form? Please see Section I.F.1 (b) of this
preamble for a description of proposed program-wide revisions to EPA's
HFC leakage standards that would address air conditioning systems
designed for alternative refrigerants.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\300\ Team 1-Refrigerant Leakage Reduction: Final Report to
Sponsors, SAE, 2007.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
The HFC control costs presented in the draft RIA Chapter 2.9 and
2.12 are applied to all heavy-duty vocational vehicles. EPA views these
costs as minimal and the reductions of potent GHGs to be easily
feasible and reasonable in the lead times provided by the proposed
rules.
(b) Engine Technologies Considered in Vehicle Standard-Setting
Section II explains the technical basis for the agencies' proposed
separate engine standards. The agencies are not proposing to predicate
the vocational vehicle standards on different diesel engine technology
packages than those presumed for compliance with the separate diesel
engine standards. However, for the proposed MY 2027 vocational vehicle
standards, the agencies are predicating the SI-powered vocational
vehicle standards on a gasoline engine technology package that includes
additional friction reduction beyond that presumed for compliance with
the MY 2016 gasoline engine standard. Chapter 2 of the draft RIA
provides more details on each of the technologies that can be applied
to both gasoline and diesel engines.
The vehicle-level standards would vary depending on whether the
engines powering those vehicles are compression-ignition or spark-
ignition.\301\ In Phase 1, this was not the case because GEM used a
default engine that was the same for every vehicle configuration,
regardless of the actual engine being installed. As described above in
Section II, the Phase 2 vehicle certification tool, GEM, would require
manufacturers to enter specific engine performance data, where
emissions and fuel consumption profiles would differ significantly
depending on the engine's architecture.\302\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\301\ Specifically, EPA is proposing CO2,
N2O, and CH4 emission standards for new heavy-
duty engines over an EPA specified useful life period (See Section
II).
\302\ See Section II.D.5 for an explanation of which engine
architecture would need to meet which standard.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
As explained in Section II.A.2, engines would continue to be
certified over the FTP test cycle. The FTP test cycle that is
applicable for bare vocational engines is very different than the
proposed test cycles for vocational vehicles in GEM. The FTP is a very
demanding transient cycle that exercises the engine over its full range
of capabilities. In contrast, the cycles evaluated by GEM measure
emissions over more frequently used engine operating ranges. The ARB
Transient vehicle cycle represents city driving, and the highway cruise
cycles measure engine operation that is closer to steady state. Each of
these cycles is described in the draft RIA Chapter 3. A consequence of
recognizing engine performance at the vehicle level would be that
further engine improvements (i.e. improvements measureable by duty
cycles that more precisely represent driving patterns for specific
subcategories of vocational vehicles) could be evaluated as possible
components of a technical basis for a vocational vehicle standard.\303\
For this reason, the agencies considered whether any different engine
technologies should be included in the feasibility analysis for the
vehicle standards (and potentially, in the proposed standard
stringency).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\303\ As noted in II.B.2 above, manufacturers also have greater
flexibility to meet a vehicle standard if engine improvements can be
evaluated as part of compliance testing.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
One CI engine technology that might be recognized over a vehicle
highway cruise cycle would be waste heat recovery (WHR). However, the
agencies do not consider this to be a feasible technology for
vocational engines. As described in Section II of this preamble and
Chapter 2.3 of the draft RIA, there currently are no commercially
available WHR systems for diesel engines, although most engine
manufacturers are exploring this technology. While it would be possible
to capture excess heat from a vocational engine operating at highway
speeds, many vocational vehicles spend insufficient time at highway
speeds to generate enough excess heat to make this technology
worthwhile. As explained in Section II.D, the agencies are projecting a
very small adoption rate of WHR even in the tractor engine market.
Because the research is currently being conducted to apply this
technology for tractors, it is logical that future research may reveal
ways to adapt this technology for those vocational engines that are
intended for on-highway applications. The agencies do not believe this
technology will be developed to the point of commercial readiness for
vocational vehicles in the time frame of these proposed rules.
The agencies assessed three SI engine technologies for possible
inclusion in the vocational vehicle technology packages: cylinder
deactivation, variable valve timing, and advanced friction reduction.
These might be recognized over the proposed vocational vehicle test
cycles in GEM through use of the proposed engine mapping procedures. To
the extent either cylinder deactivation or variable valve timing would
be adopted for complete heavy-duty pickups and vans, they would be
recognized over the complete chassis test specified for that segment
and possibly over the GEM highway cruise cycles, however the aggressive
bare engine FTP test is unlikely to put the engine into operating modes
that activate either of those technologies. Based on stakeholder input,
the agencies project that the SI engines certified over the FTP and
fitted into vocational vehicles would most likely be designed as
overhead valve engines, for which the only kind of VVT available is
dual cam phasing.\304\ Dual cam phasing is already included at 100
percent adoption rate in the feasibility and stringency of the MY 2016
bare engine standard. If manufacturers choose to fit vocational
vehicles with coaxial camshaft SI engines, additional VVT options would
be feasible and could be recognized over the vocational vehicle test
cycles. Based on stakeholder input, the agencies project that some SI
engines certified over the FTP and fitted into vocational vehicles may
be designed with cylinder deactivation by MY 2021. However, the
agencies do not have enough information at this time to quantify the
potential fuel efficiency improvements over the vocational vehicle test
cycles for engines with cylinder deactivation or various designs
implementing VVT. Therefore we are not proposing to predicate the SI-
powered vocational vehicle standards on use of these technologies.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\304\ See preamble Section VI.C.5.(a) under Coupled Cam Phasing.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
In Section II.D, the agencies explain why we are not proposing a
more stringent separate SI vocational engine standard in Phase 2 based
on additional engine technologies beyond those assumed for the Phase 1
MY 2016 standard. The agencies are instead proposing to include
adoption and performance of advanced engine friction reduction
technology as a basis for the
[[Page 40303]]
proposed SI-powered vocational vehicle standards. Based on Volpe model
results presented in preamble Section VI, the agencies project that
manufacturers of some SI engines for complete HD pickups would apply
advanced friction reduction. Level 2 engine friction reduction is
listed in Table VI-3, and costs are presented in the draft RIA Chapter
2.12. We expect some engines with this technology would be engine-
certified and sold for use in vocational vehicles. We are projecting an
overall effectiveness of 0.6 percent improvement over the GEM cycles
for this technology, calculated using a per-vehicle effectiveness of
1.1 percent and a vocational vehicle adoption rate of 56 percent. We
request comment on the merits of setting a SI-based vocational vehicle
standard predicated on adoption of SI engine technologies.
(c) Technologies the Agencies Assessed but Did Not Use in Standard-
Setting
(i) Aerodynamics
The Argonne National lab work shows that aerodynamics has less of
an impact on vocational vehicle energy losses than do engines or
tires.\305\ Further, when a vehicle spends significant time at slower
speeds, the disbenefit of the added weight of the aero devices
diminishes the benefit obtained when driving at high speeds. In
addition, the aerodynamic performance of a complete vehicle is
significantly influenced by the body of the vehicle. As noted above,
the agencies are not proposing to regulate body builders for the
reasons discussed in Phase 1.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\305\ See Argonne National Laboratory 2009 report, Note 275,
above.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
The NAS 2010 report estimated a one percent fuel efficiency
improvement could be achieved from a full aerodynamic package on a box
truck with an average speed of 30 mph.\306\ Both from the NAS 2010
report and from experiences of EPA's SmartWay team, the agencies expect
the potential benefits of aerodynamics at an average speed of 60 mph
would be diminished by 50 percent or more when average speeds are
closer to 40 mph. The proposed Regional composite duty cycle in GEM for
vocational vehicles (the test cycle with the most highway weighting)
has a weighted average speed of 39 mph.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\306\ See Table 5-10 of the NAS 2010 report, Note 136.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
The 2015 NHTDA Technology Study simulated a Class 6 box truck with
a coefficient of aerodynamic drag that had been improved by 15 percent.
Over transient test cycles, this produced a one percent fuel efficiency
benefit, though this produced results of approximately seven percent
improvement over the 55 mph and eight percent over the 65 mph cycle.
SwRI conducted coastdown testing to determine the baseline
CDA of the truck, of 5.0.\307\ However, it is unknown what
aerodynamic technologies could be applied to yield a 15 percent
improvement in CDA. Using these simulation results and the
proposed Regional cycle weightings of 22 percent at 65 mph and 28
percent at 55 mph, the agencies estimate the fuel efficiency benefit of
improving the CdA of a Class 6 box truck by 15 percent could be
approximately four percent. This assumes no penalty for carrying the
weight of the aerodynamic devices while operating under transient
driving conditions.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\307\ See 2015 NHTSA Technology Study, Note 289, Appendix C.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Because we do not have information on specific technologies that
could be applied to vocational vehicles to yield a 15 percent
improvement in CdA, or their costs, we are not basing any of the
proposed standards for vocational vehicles on aerodynamic improvements.
Nonetheless, we are working with CARB to incorporate into GEM some data
from testing that is being conducted by CARB through NREL. A test plan
is underway to assess the fuel efficiency benefit of three different
devices to improve the aerodynamic performance of a Class 6 box truck
and one device on a Class 4 box truck. The agencies request comment on
allowing a manufacturer to obtain an improved GEM result by certifying
that a final vehicle configuration will closely match one of the
configurations on which this testing was conducted, where the
improvement would be based on installation of specific aerodynamic
devices for which we have pre-defined effectiveness through this
testing program. The amount of improvement would be set by EPA and
NHTSA based on NREL's test results. This credit provision would apply
only to vocational vehicles certified over the Regional duty cycle.
Manufacturers wishing to receive credit for other aerodynamic
technologies or on other vehicle configurations would be able to seek
credit for it as an off-cycle technology. See Section V.E, for a
description of regulatory flexibilities such as off-cycle technology
credits.
A description of vehicles and aerodynamic technologies that could
be eligible for this option, as well as a description of the testing
conducted to obtain the assigned GEM improvements due to these
technologies, can be found in a memorandum to the docket.\308\ The
agencies seek comment on this potential approach to providing credits
for aerodynamic aids to vocational box trucks.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\308\ See May 2015 memorandum to the docket titled Vocational
Vehicle Aerodynamic Testing Program.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
(ii) Full Electric Trucks
Some heavy-duty vehicles can be powered exclusively by electric
motors. Electric motors are efficient and able to produce high torque,
giving e-trucks strong driving characteristics, particularly in stop-
and-go or urban driving situations, and are well-suited for moving
heavy loads. Electric motors also offer the ability to operate with
very low noise, an advantage in certain applications. Currently, e-
trucks have some disadvantages over conventional vehicles, primarily in
cost, weight and range. Components are relatively expensive, and
storing electricity using currently available technology is expensive,
bulky, and heavy.
The West Coast Collaborative, a public-private partnership, has
estimated the incremental costs for electric Class 3-6 trucks in the
Los Angeles, CA, area.\309\ Compared to a conventional diesel, the WCC
estimates a BEV system would cost between $70,000 and $90,000 more than
a conventional diesel system. The CalHEAT Technology Roadmap includes
an estimate that the incremental cost for a fully-electric medium- or
heavy- duty vehicle would be between $50,000 and $100,000. This roadmap
report also presents several actions that must be taken by
manufacturers and others, before heavy-duty e-trucks can reach what
they call Stage 3 Deployment.\310\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\309\ See https://westcoastcollaborative.org/files/sector-fleets/WCC-LA-BEVBusinessCase2011-08-15.pdf.
\310\ Silver, Fred, and Brotherton, Tom. (CalHEAT) Research and
Market Transformation Roadmap to 2020 for Medium- and Heavy-Duty
Trucks. California Energy Commission, June 2013.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Early adopters of electric drivetrain technology are medium-heavy-
duty vocational vehicles that are not weight-limited and have drive
cycles where they don't need to go far from a central garage. Examples
include Frito-Lay. CalHEAT has published results of a comprehensive
performance evaluation of three battery electric truck models using
information and data from in-use data collection, on road testing and
chassis dynamometer testing.\311\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\311\ Gallo, Jean-Baptiste, and Jasna Tomic (CalHEAT). 2013.
Battery Electric Parcel Delivery Truck Testing and Demonstration.
California Energy Commission.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
[[Page 40304]]
Given the high costs and the developing nature of this technology,
the agencies do not project fully electric vocational vehicles to be
widely commercially available in the time frame of the proposed rules.
For this reason, the agencies have not based the proposed Phase 2
standards on adoption of full-electric vocational vehicles. To the
extent this technology is able to be brought to market in the time
frame of the Phase 2 program, there is currently a certification path
for these chassis from Phase 1, as described in Section V.E and in
EPA's regulations at 40 CFR 1037.150 and NHTSA's regulations at 49 CFR
535.8.
(iii) Electrified Accessories
Accessories that are traditionally gear- or belt-driven by a
vehicle's engine can be optimized and/or converted to electric power.
Examples include the engine water pump, oil pump, fuel injection pump,
air compressor, power-steering pump, cooling fans, and the vehicle's
air-conditioning system. Optimization and improved pressure regulation
may significantly reduce the parasitic load of the water, air and fuel
pumps. Electrification may result in a reduction in power demand,
because electrically-powered accessories (such as the air compressor or
power steering) operate only when needed if they are electrically
powered, but they impose a parasitic demand all the time if they are
engine-driven. In other cases, such as cooling fans or an engine's
water pump, electric power allows the accessory to run at speeds
independent of engine speed, which can reduce power consumption.
Electrification of accessories can individually improve fuel
consumption, regardless of whether the drivetrain is a strong hybrid.
The TIAX study used 2 to 4 percent fuel consumption improvement for
accessory electrification, with the understanding that electrification
of accessories will have more effect in short haul/urban applications
and less benefit in line-haul applications.\312\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\312\ TIAX 2009, Note 137, pp. 3-5.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Electric power steering (EPS) or Electrohydraulic power steering
(EHPS) provides a potential reduction in CO2 emissions and fuel
consumption over hydraulic power steering because of reduced overall
accessory loads. This eliminates the parasitic losses associated with
belt-driven power steering pumps which consistently draw load from the
engine to pump hydraulic fluid through the steering actuation systems
even when the wheels are not being turned. EPS is an enabler for all
vehicle hybridization technologies since it provides power steering
when the engine is off. EPS is feasible for most vehicles with a
standard 12V system. Some heavier vehicles may require a higher voltage
system which may add cost and complexity.
The agencies are projecting that some electrified accessories will
be necessary as part of the development of stop-start idle reduction
systems for vocational vehicles. However, the agencies have not
developed a pre-defined credit-generating option for manufacturers to
directly receive credit in GEM for electrified accessories on
vocational vehicles. Manufacturers wishing to conduct independent
testing may apply for off-cycle credits derived from electrified
accessories.
(iv) E-PTO
There are products available today that can provide auxiliary
power, usually electric, to a vehicle that needs to work in PTO mode
for an extended time, to avoid idling the main engine. There are
different designs of electrified PTO systems on the market today. Some
designs have auxiliary power sources, typically batteries, with
sufficient energy storage to power an onboard tool or device for a
short period of time, and are intended to be recharged during the
workday by operating the main engine, either while driving between work
sites, or by idling the engine until a sufficient state of charge is
reached that the engine may shut off. Other designs have sufficient
energy storage to power an onboard tool or device for many hours, and
are intended to be recharged as a plug-in hybrid at a home garage. The
agencies are proposing to continue the hybrid-PTO test option that was
available in Phase 1, with a few revisions. See the proposed
regulations at 40 CFR 1037.540. The current test procedure is a charge-
sustaining procedure, meaning the test is not complete until the energy
storage system is depleted and brought back to its original state of
charge. The agencies request comment and data relating to the
population and energy storage capacity of plug-in e-PTO systems, for
which a charge-depleting test cycle may be more appropriate. For the
reasons described above in Section V.C.1.a.iv, the agencies are not
basing the proposed vocational vehicle standards on use of electrified
PTO or hybrid PTO technology. Manufacturers wishing to conduct testing
as specified may apply for off-cycle credits derived from e-PTO or
hybrid PTO technologies.
(2) Projected Vehicle Technology Package Effectiveness and Cost
(a) Baseline Vocational Engine and Vehicle Performance
The proposed baseline vocational vehicle configurations for each of
the nine proposed regulatory subcategories are described in draft RIA
Chapter 2.9 and Chapter 4.4. The agencies propose to set the baseline
rolling resistance coefficient for the 2017 vocational vehicle fleet at
7.7 kg/metric ton, which assumes 100 percent of tires meet the Phase 1
standard.
In the agencies' proposed baseline configurations, we include
torque converter automatics with five forward gears in eight of the
nine subcategories. In the Regional HHD subcategory, the baseline
includes a manual transmission with ten forward gears. No additional
vehicle-level efficiency-improving technology is included in the
baseline vehicles, nor in the agencies' analyses for the no-action
reference case. Specifically, we have assumed zero adoption rates for
other types of transmissions, increased numbers of gears, idle
reduction, and technologies other than Phase 1 compliant LRR tires in
both the nominally flat baseline and the dynamic baseline reference
cases. Technology adoption rates for Alternative 1a (nominally flat
baseline) can be found in the draft RIA Chapter 2.12. Chapter 2.12.8
presents the adoption rates for tires on vocational vehicles with
different levels of rolling resistance, including the 100 percent
adoption rate of tires with Level 1 CRR in the reference case and in
model years preceding Phase 2. In this manner, we have defined a
reference vocational vehicle fleet that meets the Phase 1 standards and
includes reasonable representations of vocational vehicle technology
and configurations. Details of the vehicle configurations, including
reasons why they are reasonably included as baseline technologies, are
discussed in the draft RIA Chapter 2.9.
The agencies note that the baseline performance derived for the
proposed rules varies between regulatory subcategories--as noted above,
this is the reason the agencies are proposing the further
subcategories. The range of performance at baseline is due to the range
of attributes and modeling parameters, such as transmission
characteristics, final drive ratio, and vehicle weight, which were
selected to represent a range of performance across this diverse
segment. The agencies request comment on whether the proposed
configurations adequately represent a reasonable range of vocational
chassis configurations likely
[[Page 40305]]
to be manufactured in the implementation years of the Phase 2 program.
We especially are interested in comments regarding the following
driveline parameters: Transmission gear ratios, axle ratios, and tire
radii.
The baseline engine fuel consumption represents improvements beyond
currently available engines to achieve the efficiency of what the
agencies believe would be a 2017 model year diesel engine, as described
in the draft RIA Chapter 2. Using the values for compression-ignition
engines, the baseline performance of vocational vehicles is shown in
Table V-11.
Different types of diesel engines are used in vocational vehicles,
depending on the application. They fall into the categories of Light,
Medium, and Heavy Heavy-duty Diesel engines. The Light Heavy-duty
Diesel engines typically range between 4.7 and 6.7 liters displacement.
The Medium Heavy-duty Diesel engines typically have some overlap in
displacement with the Light Heavy-duty Diesel engines and range between
6.7 and 9.3 liters. The Heavy Heavy-duty Diesel engines typically are
represented by engines between 10.8 and 16 liters. Because of these
differences, the GEM simulation of baseline vocational CI engines
includes four engines--one for LHD, one for MHD, and two for HHD.
Detailed descriptions can be seen in Chapter 4 of the draft RIA. These
four engine models have been employed in setting the vocational vehicle
baselines, as described in the draft RIA Chapter 2.9.
Table V-11--Baseline Vocational Vehicle Performance With CI Engines
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Light heavy-
Duty cycle duty class 2b- Medium heavy- Heavy heavy-
5 duty class 6-7 duty class 8
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Baseline Emissions Performance in CO[bdi2] gram/ton-mile
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Urban........................................................... 316 201 212
Multi-Purpose................................................... 325 203 214
Regional........................................................ 339 199 203
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Baseline Fuel Efficiency Performance in gallon per 1,000 ton-mile
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Urban........................................................... 31.0413 19.7446 20.8251
Multi-Purpose................................................... 31.9253 19.9411 21.0216
Regional........................................................ 33.3006 19.5481 19.9411
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The agencies intend to develop a model in GEM of a MY 2016-
compliant gasoline engine, but we have been unable to obtain sufficient
information to complete this process. The agencies request comments on
the process for mapping gasoline engines for simulation purposes, as
well as information about the power rating and displacement that should
be considered as a baseline SI engine for vocational vehicle standard-
setting purposes. In lieu of a SI engine map, the agencies have applied
a correction factor to the GEM CI vocational simulation results, to
approximate the baseline performance of a SI-powered vocational
vehicle. The SI-powered vocational vehicle baseline performance shown
in Table V-12 was calculated from applying an adjustment factor to the
respective CI-powered vocational vehicle baseline values. This CI to SI
baseline adjustment factor is derived from the Phase 1 HD pickup and
van stringency curves, as described in the draft RIA Chapter 2.9.1. The
correction factor approach is not the agencies' preferred approach, as
it has many drawbacks. One key drawback with this approach is that it
does not account for the fact that SI engines operate very differently
than CI engines at idle. Our current model includes information on CI
engine idle performance, and assumes transmissions and torque
converters appropriate for CI engines. We expect these driveline
parameters would be very different for SI powered vehicles, which would
affect performance over all the GEM duty cycles.
The baseline performance levels for HHD vocational vehicles powered
by SI engines were derived using the same procedures described above
for the MHD and LHD vehicles, adjusting the performance of the HHD CI
powered vocational vehicles by the same degree as for the other
vehicles. However, we expect that any gasoline Class 8 vocational
vehicle would be powered by a MHD SI engine, as there are no HHD
gasoline engines on the market. Further, we expect that if we were to
develop an engine map for use in simulating heavier SI vocational
vehicles in GEM, we could establish a more representative baseline
performance level by calculating the work done by the MHD engine to
move the heavier vehicle over the test cycles. The agencies request
comments on the merits of developing separate baseline levels and
numerical standards for HHD vocational vehicles powered by SI engines,
including any benefits that could be obtained by addressing this
unlikely occurrence and other ways in which the agencies could avoid
the instance of an orphaned SI vocational vehicle. Commenters who favor
separate numerical standards are encouraged to submit information
related to appropriate default vehicle characteristics such as weight
and payload. Depending on comments, the agencies could choose to
require all Class 8 vocational vehicles to certify to the standards for
CI powered HHD vocational vehicles, or we could require SI powered
Class 8 vocational vehicles to certify to the MHD standards for SI
vocational vehicles.
Table V-12--Baseline Vocational Vehicle Performance With SI Engines
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Light heavy-duty Medium heavy-duty Heavy heavy-duty
Duty cycle Class 2b-5 Class 6-7 Class 8
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Baseline Emissions Performance in CO[bdi2] gram/ton-mile
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Urban............................................ 334 213 224
[[Page 40306]]
Multi-Purpose.................................... 344 215 226
Regional......................................... 358 211 214
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Baseline Fuel Efficiency Performance in gallon per 1,000 ton-mile
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Urban............................................ 37.5830 23.9676 25.2054
Multi-Purpose.................................... 38.7082 24.1926 25.4304
Regional......................................... 40.2836 23.7425 24.0801
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(b) Technology Packages for Derivation of Proposed Standards
Prior to developing the numerical values for the proposed
standards, the agencies projected the mix of new technologies and
technology improvements that would be feasible within the proposed lead
time. We note that for some technologies, the adoption rates and
effectiveness may be very similar across subcategories. However, for
other technologies, either the adoption rate, effectiveness, or both
differ across subcategories. The standards being proposed reflect the
technology projected for each service class. Where a technology
performs differently over different test cycles, these differences are
reflected to some extent in the derivation of the stringency of the
proposed standard. However, the proposed standard stringency does
reflect, to some extent, the ability of manufacturers to utilize
credits. For example, we project that hybrid vehicles would generally
be certified in the Urban subcategory and would generate emission
credits that would most likely be used in the other subcategories
within the weight class group.\313\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\313\ See averaging sets at 40 CFR 1037.740.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
As part of the derivation of the numerical standards, we performed
a benchmarking analysis to inform our development of standards that
would have roughly equivalent stringency among the duty-cycle-based
subcategories within each weight class group. To do this, the agencies
assessed the performance of broadly applicable technologies, such as
low rolling resistance tires, on each of the selected baseline vehicles
over each of the duty cycles. We then evaluated how much improvement
could be achieved over the various duty cycles for a vehicle that
incorporated all the broadly applicable technologies, but which did not
include a hybrid powertrain. We simulated neutral idle for benchmarked
vehicles for MY 2021 and MY 2024, and simulated stop-start idle
reduction on the benchmarked MY 2027 vehicles. From this, we learned
that a vehicle with neutral idle and a deeply integrated conventional
powertrain, with moderately low rolling resistance tires and some
weight reduction could easily meet the proposed standards in the early
implementation years of the program, in any weight class or duty cycle.
We also learned how the effectiveness of tire rolling resistance and
weight reduction vary in GEM (i.e. and therefore likely in actual
operation) across the different subcategories. We also found that a
vehicle with a deeply integrated conventional powertrain, tires with
even lower CRR, some weight reduction, and stop-start idle reduction
could achieve the MY 2027 proposed standards. However, our technology
feasibility does not presume that 100 percent of vocational vehicles
can reasonably apply deep powertrain integration, nor do we project 100
percent adoption of LRR tires or weight reduction.
The technologies assumed for the benchmarked vehicles are
summarized in Table V-13, Table V-14, and Table V-15. Note that the
agencies are not projecting that these are the vehicles that would
actually be produced. Rather, these theoretical vehicles are being
evaluated to compare the relative stringency of the standards for each
subcategory.
Table V-13--GEM Inputs for Benchmarked MY 2021 Vocational Vehicles
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Class 2b-5 Class 6-7 Class 8
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Multi- Multi- Multi-
Urban purpose Regional Urban purpose Regional Urban purpose Regional
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Transmission
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
100% Deep Transmission Integration for 7% Urban, 6% Multipurpose, 5% Regional
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
5s AT 5s AT 5s AT 5s AT 5s AT 5s AT 5s AT 5s AT 10s AMT
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
[[Page 40307]]
CI Engine \a\
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2021 MY 7L, 22021 MY 7L, 270 hp Engine
2021 MY 11L, 345 hp 2021 MY 15L
Engine 455hp
Engine
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
100% Idle Reduction = Neutral Idle
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
100% improved axle lubrication: 0.5%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
100% Steer Tires with CRR 6.9 kg/metric ton
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
100% Drive Tires with CRR 7.3 kg/metric ton
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Weight Reduction 200 lb
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note:
\a\ SI engines were not simulated in GEM.
Table V-14--GEM Inputs for Benchmarked MY 2024 Vocational Vehicles
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Class 2b-5 Class 6-7 Class 8
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Multi- Multi- Multi-
Urban purpose Regional Urban purpose Regional Urban purpose Regional
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Transmission
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
100% Deep Transmission Integration for 7% Urban, 6% Multipurpose, 5% Regional
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
5s AT 5s AT 5s AT 5s AT 5s AT 5s AT 5s AT 5s AT 10s AMT
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CI Engine \a\
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2024 MY 7L, 22024 MY 7L, 270 hp Engine
2024 MY 11L, 345 hp 2024 MY 15L
Engine 455hp
Engine
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
100% Idle Reduction = Neutral Idle
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
100% improved axle lubrication: 0.5%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
100% Steer Tires with CRR 6.7 kg/metric ton
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
100% Drive Tires with CRR 7.1 kg/metric ton
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Weight Reduction 200 lb
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note:
\a\ SI engines were not simulated in GEM.
Table V-15--GEM Inputs for Benchmarked MY 2027 Vocational Vehicles
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Class 2b-5 Class 6-7 Class 8
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Multi- Multi- Multi-
Urban purpose Regional Urban purpose Regional Urban purpose Regional
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Transmission
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
100% Deep Transmission Integration for 7% Urban, 6% Multipurpose, 5% Regional
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
5s AT 5s AT 5s AT 5s AT 5s AT 5s AT 5s AT 5s AT 10s AMT
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
[[Page 40308]]
CI Engine \a\
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2027 MY 7L, 22027 MY 7L, 270 hp Engine
2027 MY 11L, 345 hp 2027 MY 15L
Engine 455hp
Engine
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
100% Idle Reduction = Stop-Start
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
100% Steer Tires with CRR 6.4 kg/metric ton
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
100% Drive Tires with CRR 7.0 kg/metric ton
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Weight Reduction 200 lb
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note:
\a\ SI engines were not simulated in GEM.
Next we identified the best performing baseline vehicle in each
weight class group (one for HHD, one for MHD and one for LHD) and
normalized the baseline GEM results to the performance of that vehicle.
A complete description of this normalization process is found in the
draft RIA Chapter 2. We then applied our actual projected technology
adoption rates, including hybrid powertrains and stop-start idle
reduction, to normalized-benchmarked vehicles in each of the nine
subcategories. The proposed standards then were calculated by
multiplying the normalized baseline vehicle GEM result by an average
percent improvement for each weight class group. For example, the GEM
results from applying the projected technology mix for MY 2021 MHD CI
vocational vehicles were a 5 percent improvement in the Regional MHD
subcategory, 7 percent improvement in the MHD Multipurpose subcategory,
and 8 percent improvement in the MHD Urban subcategory. To achieve
standards with equivalent stringency, we multiplied each normalized
baseline vehicle's GEM performance by the numerical average of those
simulated improvements, 6.6 percent. Without comparable stringency
across the subcategories, manufacturers could have an incentive to
select a subcategory strategically to have a less stringent standard,
rather than to certify vehicles in the subcategory that best matches
the vehicles' expected use patterns. By setting the standards at the
same percent reduction from each weight class group of normalized-
benchmarked vehicles, we would expect to minimize any incentive for a
manufacturer to certify a vocational vehicle in an inappropriate
subcategory.
We request comment on using this approach to normalize the
standards. Commenters are encouraged to address both the approach in
general and the specific technology assumed for the benchmark vehicles.
We are aware that in this approach, some of the projected
technology packages would not provide a direct path to compliance for
manufacturers, such as in the example above of the MHD Regional
vehicle. Using the technologies adopted at projected rates, it would
fall short of the standard by 1.5 percent. The agencies believe that
the Phase 2 program has enough regulatory flexibility (averaging,
banking, and trading provisions in particular) to enable such a vehicle
to be certified.
In the package descriptions that follow, individual technology
costs are not presented, rather these can be found in the draft RIA
Chapter 2.9 and 2.12. Section V. C. (2) (d) includes the costs
estimated for packages of technologies the agencies project would
enable vocational vehicles to meet the proposed Phase 2 standards.
(i) Transmission Packages
The agencies project that 30 percent of vocational vehicles would
have one or more of the transmission technologies identified above in
this section applied by MY 2021, increasing to nearly 60 percent by MY
2024 and over 80 percent by MY 2027. Most of this increase is due to a
projected increase in adoption of technologies that represent deep
driveline integration. The agencies project an adoption rate of 15
percent in MY 2021 and 30 percent in MY 2024 for manufacturers using
the powertrain test to be recognized for non-hardware upgrades such as
gear efficiencies, shift strategies, and torque converter lockups, as
well as other technologies that enable driveline optimization. Due to
the relatively high efficiency gains available from driveline
optimization for relatively low costs, the agencies are projecting a 70
percent application rate of driveline optimization by MY 2027 across
all subcategories. We do not have information about the extent to which
integration may be deterred by barriers to information-sharing between
component suppliers. Therefore we are projecting that major
manufacturers would work to overcome these barriers, integrate and
optimize their drivelines, and use the powertrain test on all eligible
configurations, while smaller manufacturers may not adopt these
technologies at all, or not to a degree that they would find value in
this optional test procedure.
For the technology of adding two gears, we are predicating the
proposed MY 2021 standard on a five percent adoption rate, except zero
in the HHD Regional subcategory, which is modeled with a 10-speed
transmission. This adoption rate is projected to essentially remain at
this level throughout the program, with an increase to ten percent only
for two subcategories (Regional LHD and MHD) in MY 2027. This is
because the manufacturers most likely to develop 8-speed transmissions
are those that are also developing transmissions for HD pickups and
vans, and the GEM-certified vocational market share among those
manufacturers is relatively small.
The HHD Regional subcategory is the only one where we assume a
manual transmission in the baseline configuration. For these vehicles,
the agencies project upgrades to electronic transmissions such as
either AMT, DCT, or automatic, at collective adoption rates of 51
percent in MY 2021, 68 percent in MY 2024, and five percent in MY 2027.
The decrease in MY 2027 reflects a projection that a greater number of
deeply integrated HHD powertrains would be used by MY 2027 (one
consequence being that fewer HHD
[[Page 40309]]
powertrains would be directly simulated in GEM in that year). The
larger numbers in the phase-in years reflect powertrains that have been
automated or electrified but not deeply integrated. The agencies have
been careful to account for the cost of both electrifying and deeply
integrating the MY 2027 powertrains. In draft RIA Chapter 11, the
technology adoption rates for the HHD Regional subcategory presented in
Table 11-42, Table 11-45, and Table 11-48 account for the assumption
that a manual transmission cannot be deeply integrated, so there must
also be an automation upgrade. These tables are inputs to the agencies'
cost analysis, thus the costs of both upgrading and integrating HHD
powertrains are included. The adoption rates of the upgraded but not
integrated transmission architectures represent a projection of three
percent of all vocational vehicles in MY 2021 and four percent in MY
2024. This is based on an estimate that seven percent of the vocational
vehicles would be in the HHD Regional subcategory. For more information
about the assumptions that were made about the populations of vehicles
in different subcategories, see the agencies' inventory estimates in
draft RIA Chapter 5.
In the eight subcategories in which automatic transmissions are the
base technology, the agencies project that five percent would upgrade
to a dual clutch transmission in MY 2021. This projection increases to
15 percent in MY 2024 and decreases in MY 2027 to ten percent for two
subcategories (Regional LHD and MHD) and five percent for the remaining
6 subcategories. The low projected adoption rates of DCT reflect the
fact that this is a relatively new technology for the heavy-duty
sector, and it is likely that broader market acceptance would be
achieved once fleets have gained experience with the technology.
Similar to the pattern described for the HHD Regional subcategory, the
decrease in MY 2027 reflects a projection of greater use of deeply
integrated powertrains.
In setting the proposed standard stringency, we have projected that
hybrids on vehicles certified in the Multipurpose subcategories would
achieve on average 22 percent improvement, and those in the Urban
subcategories would see a 25 percent improvement. We have also
projected zero hybrid adoption rate by vehicles in the Regional
subcategories, expecting that the benefit of hybrids for those vehicles
would be too low to merit use of that type of technology. However,
there is no fixed hybrid value assigned in GEM and the actual
improvement over the applicable test cycle would be determined by
powertrain testing. By the full implementation year of MY 2027, the
agencies are projecting an overall vocational vehicle adoption rate of
ten percent hybrids, which we estimate would be 18 percent of vehicles
certified in the Multi-Purpose and Urban subcategories. We are
projecting a low adoption rate in the early years of the Phase 2
program, just four percent in these subcategories in MY 2021, and seven
percent in MY 2024 for vehicles certified in the Multi-Purpose and
Urban subcategories. Based on our assumptions about the populations of
vehicles in different subcategories, these hybrid adoption rates are
about two percent overall in MY 2021 and four percent overall in MY
2024.
Considering the combination of the above technologies and adoption
rates, we project the CO2 and fuel efficiency improvements
for all transmission upgrades to be approximately seven percent on a
fleet basis by MY 2027. One subcategory in which we are projecting a
very large advanced transmission adoption rate is the HHD Regional
subcategory, in which we are projecting 75 percent of the transmissions
would be either automated or automatic (upgraded from a manual) with 70
percent of those also being deeply integrated by MY 2027. By
comparison, the agencies are projecting that HHD day cab tractors would
have 90 percent adoption of automated or automatic transmissions by MY
2027. Although we are not prepared to predict what fraction of these
would be upgraded in the absence of Phase 2, the draft RIA Chapter 2.9
explains why the agencies are confident that durable transmissions will
be widely available in the Phase 2 time frame to support manufacture of
HHD vocational vehicles.
If the above technologies do not reach the expected level of market
adoption, the vocational vehicle Phase 2 program has several other
technology options that manufacturers could choose to meet the proposed
standards.
(ii) Axle Packages
The agencies project that 75 percent of vocational vehicles in all
subcategories would adopt advanced axle lubricant formulations in all
implementation years of the Phase 2 program. Fuel efficient lubricant
formulations are widespread across the heavy-duty market, though
advanced synthetic formulations are currently less popular.\314\ Axle
lubricants with improved viscosity and efficiency-enhancing performance
are projected to be widely adopted by manufacturers in the time frame
of Phase 2. Such formulations are commercially available and the
agencies see no reason why they could not be feasible for most
vehicles. Nonetheless, we have refrained from projecting full adoption
of this technology. The agencies do not have specific information
regarding reasons why axle manufacturers may specify a specific type of
lubricant over another, and whether advanced lubricant formulations may
not be recommended in all cases. The agencies request comment on
information regarding any vocational vehicle applications for which use
of advanced lubricants would not be feasible.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\314\ Based on conversations with axle suppliers.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
The agencies estimate that 45 percent of HHD Regional vocational
vehicles would adopt either full time or part time 6x2 axle technology
in MY 2021. This technology is most likely to be applied to Class 8
vocational vehicles (with 2 rear axles) that are designed for frequent
highway trips. The agencies project a slightly higher adoption rate of
60 percent combined for both full and part time 6x2 axle technologies
in MY 2024 and MY 2027. Based on our estimates of vehicle populations,
this is about four percent of all vocational vehicles.
(iii) Tire Packages
The agencies estimate that the per-vehicle average level of rolling
resistance from vocational vehicle tires could be reduced by 11 percent
by full implementation of the Phase 2 program in MY 2027, based on the
tire development achievements expected over the next decade. This is
estimated by weighting the projected improvements of steer tires and
drive tires using an assumed axle load distribution of 30 percent on
the steer tires and 70 percent on the drive tires, as explained in the
draft RIA Chapter 2.9. The projected adoption rates and expected
improvements in CRR are presented in Table V-16. By applying the
assumed axle load distribution, the average vehicle CRR improvements
projected for the proposed MY 2021 standards would be four percent,
which we project would achieve up to one percent reduction in fuel use
and CO2 emissions, depending on the vehicle subcategory.
Using that same method, the agencies estimate the average vehicle CRR
in MY 2024 would be seven percent, yielding reductions in fuel use and
CO2 emissions of between one and two percent, depending on
the vehicle subcategory.
The agencies understand that the vocational vehicle segment has
access to
[[Page 40310]]
a large variety of tires, including some that are designed for
tractors, some that are designed for HD pickups and vans, and some with
multiple use designations. In spite of the likely availability of LRR
tires during the Phase 2 program, the projected adoption rates are
intended to be conservative. The agencies believe that these tire
packages recognize the variety of tire purposes and performance levels
in the vocational vehicle market, and maintain choices for
manufacturers to use the most efficient tires (i.e. those with least
rolling resistance) only where it makes sense given these vehicles'
differing purposes and applications.
Table V-16--Projected LRR Tire Adoption Rates
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Level of rolling MY 2021 MY 2024 MY 2027
Tire position resistance adoption rate adoption rate adoption rate
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Drive............................... Baseline CRR (7.7)..... 50 20 10
Steer............................... Baseline CRR (7.7)..... 20 10 0
Drive............................... 5% Lower CRR (7.3)..... 50 50 25
Steer............................... 10% Lower CRR (6.9).... 80 30 20
Drive............................... 10% Lower CRR (6.9).... 0 30 50
Steer............................... 15% Lower CRR (6.5).... 0 60 30
Drive............................... 15% Lower CRR (6.5).... 0 0 15
Steer............................... 20% Lower CRR (6.2).... 0 0 50
Drive............................... Average Improvement in 3% 6% 9%
CRR.
Steer............................... Average Improvement in 8% 12% 17%
CRR.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
For comparison purposes, the reader may note that these levels of
tire CRR generally correspond with levels of tire CRR projected for
tractors built for the Phase 1 standards. For example, the baseline
level CRR for vocational tires is very similar to the baseline tractor
steer tire CRR. Vocational vehicle tires with 10 percent better CRR
have a similar CRR level as tractor tires of Drive Level 1. Vocational
vehicle tires with 15 percent better CRR have a similar CRR level as
tractor tires of Steer Level 1. Vocational vehicle tires with 20
percent better CRR have a similar CRR level as tractor tires of Drive
Level 2, as described in Section III.D.2.
(iv) Idle Reduction Packages
In this proposal, we are projecting a progression of idle reduction
technology development that begins with 70 percent adoption rate of
neutral idle for the MY 2021 standards, which by MY 2027 is replaced by
a 70 percent adoption rate of stop-start idle reduction technology.
Although it is possible that a vehicle could have both neutral idle and
stop-start, we are only considering emissions reductions for vehicles
with one or the other of these technologies. Also, as the program
phases in, we do not see a reduction in the projected adoption rate of
neutral idle to be a concern in terms of stranded investment, because
it is a very low cost technology that could be an enabler for stop-
start systems in some cases.
We are not projecting any adoption of neutral idle for the HHD
Regional subcategory, because any vehicle with a manual transmission
must shift to neutral when stopped to avoid stalling the engine, so
that vehicles in the HHD Regional subcategory would already essentially
be idling in neutral and no additional technology would be needed to
achieve this. A similar case can be made for any vocational vehicle
with an automated manual transmission, since these share inherently
similar architectures with manuals. The agencies are not projecting an
adoption rate of 85 percent neutral idle until MY 2024, because it may
take some additional development time to apply this technology to high-
torque automatic transmissions designed for the largest vocational
vehicles. Based on stakeholder input, the designs needed to avoid an
uncomfortable re-engagement bump when returning to drive from neutral
may require some engineering development time as well as some work to
enable two-way communication between engines and transmissions.
We are projecting a five percent adoption rate of stop-start in the
six MHD and LHD subcategories for MY 2021 and zero for the HHD
vehicles, because this technology is still developing for vocational
vehicles and is most likely to be feasible in the early years of Phase
2 for vehicles with lower power demands and lower engine inertia.
Stopping a heavy-duty engine is not challenging. The real challenge is
designing a robust system that can deliver multiple smooth restarts
daily without loss of function while the engine is off. Many current
light-duty products offer this feature, and some heavy-duty
manufacturers are exploring this.\315\ The agencies are projecting an
adoption rate of 15 percent stop-start across all subcategories in the
intermediate year of MY 2024. The agencies are projecting this
technology to have a relatively high adoption rate (70 percent as
stated above) by MY 2027 because we see it being technically feasible
on the majority of vocational vehicles, and especially effective on
those with the most time at idle in their workday operation. Although
we are not prepared to predict what fraction of vehicles would adopt
stop-start in the absence of Phase 2, the draft RIA Chapter 2.9
explains why the agencies are confident that this technology, which is
on the entry-level side of the hybrid and electrification spectrum,
will be widely available in the Phase 2 time frame.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\315\ See Ford announcement December 2013, https://
media.ford.com/content/fordmedia/fna/us/en/news/2013/12/12/70-
percent-of-ford-lineup-to-have-auto-start-stop-by-2017--fuel-.html.
See also Allison-Cummins announcement July 2014, https://www.oemoffhighway.com/press_release/12000208/allison-stop-start?utm_source=OOH+Industry+News+eNL&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=RCL140723006.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Based on these projected adoption rates and the effectiveness
values described above in this section, we expect overall GHG and fuel
consumption reductions from workday idle on vocational vehicles to be
approximately three percent in MY 2027.
(v) Weight Reduction Packages
As described in the draft RIA Chapter 2.12, weight reduction is a
relatively costly technology, at approximately $3 to $4 per pound for a
200-lb package. Even so, for vehicles in service classes where dense,
heavy loads are frequently carried, weight reduction can translate
directly to additional payload. The agencies project weight reduction
would most likely be used for vocational vehicles in the refuse and
construction service classes, as well as some regional delivery
vehicles. The agencies are
[[Page 40311]]
predicating the proposed standards on an adoption rate of five to eight
percent, depending on the subcategory, in MY 2027, with slightly lower
adoption rates in MY 2021 and MY 2024.
For this technology package, NHTSA and EPA project manufacturers
would use material substitution in the amount of 200 lbs. An example of
how this weight could be reduced would be a complete set of aluminum
wheels for a Class 8 vocational vehicle, or an aluminum transmission
case plus high strength steel wheels, frame rails, and suspension
brackets on a MHD or LHD vocational vehicle. The agencies have limited
information about how popular the use of aluminum components is in the
vocational vehicle sector. We request comments with information on
whether any lightweight vocational vehicle components are in such
widespread use that we should exclude them from the list of components
for which a GEM improvement value would be available.
(c) GEM Inputs for Derivation of Proposed Vocational Vehicle Standards
To derive the stringency of the proposed vocational vehicle
standards, the agencies developed a suite of fuel consumption maps for
use with the GEM: One set of maps that represent engines meeting the
proposed MY 2021 vocational diesel engine standards, a second set of
maps representing engines meeting the proposed MY 2024 vocational
diesel engine standards, and a third set of maps representing engines
meeting the proposed MY 2027 vocational diesel engine standards.\316\
By incorporating the engine technology packages projected to be adopted
to meet the proposed Phase 2 vocational CI engine standards, the
agencies employed GEM engine models in deriving the stringency of the
proposed Phase 2 CI-powered vocational vehicle standards. As noted
above, because the agencies did not have enough information to develop
a robust GEM-based gasoline engine fuel map, the stringency of the
proposed SI-powered vocational vehicle standards is derived as an
adjustment from the CI-powered vocational vehicle standards. See the
draft RIA Chapter 2.9 for more details about this adjustment process.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\316\ See Section II.D.2 of this preamble for the derivation of
the engine standards.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Depending on the particular technology, either the effectiveness
was assigned by the agencies using an accepted average value, or the
GEM tool was used to assess the proposed technology effectiveness, as
discussed above. The agencies derived a scenario vehicle for each
subcategory using the adoption rate and assigned or modeled improvement
values of transmission, axle, and idle reduction technologies. For
example, the MY 2021 CRR values for each subcategory scenario case were
derived as follows: For steer tires--20 percent times 7.7 plus 80
percent times 6.9 yields an average CRR of 7.1 kg/metric ton; and for
drive tires--50 percent times 7.7 plus 50 percent times 7.3 yields an
average CRR of 7.5 kg/metric ton. Similar calculations were done for
weight reduction, transmission improvements, and axle improvements. The
set of tire CRR, idle reduction, weight reduction, engine and
transmission input parameters that was modeled in GEM in support of the
proposed MY 2021 vocational vehicle standards is shown in Table V-17.
The agencies derived the level of the proposed MY 2024 standards by
using the tire, weight reduction, engine and transmission GEM inputs
shown in Table V-18, below. The agencies derived the level of the
proposed MY 2027 standards by using the tire, weight reduction, engine
and transmission GEM inputs shown in Table V-19, below. As post-
processing, the respective adoption rates and assigned improvement
values of transmission, axle, and idle reduction technologies were
calculated for each subcategory.
The agencies have not directly transferred the GEM results from
these inputs as the proposed standards. Rather, the proposed standards
are the result of the normalizing and benchmarking analysis described
above. The proposed standards are presented in Table V-4 through Table
V-9. Additional detail is provided in the RIA Chapter 2.9.
Table V-17--GEM Inputs Used To Derive Proposed MY 2021 Vocational Vehicle Standards
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Class 2b-5 Class 6-7 Class 8
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Multi- Multi- Multi-
Urban purpose Regional Urban purpose Regional Urban purpose Regional
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CI Engine \a\
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2021 MY 7L, 200 hp E2021 MY 7L,
2021 MY 11L, 2021 MY 15L
200 hp Engine270 hp Engine
345 hp Engine 455hp
Engine
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Transmission (improvement factor)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
0.023 0.021 0.008 0.023 0.021 0.009 0.023 0.022 0.022
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Axle (improvement factor)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
0.004 0.004 0.004 0.004 0.004 0.004 0.004 0.004 0.012
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Stop-Start (adoption rate)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 0% 0% 0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Neutral Idle (adoption rate)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Steer Tires (CRR kg/metric ton)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
[[Page 40312]]
Drive Tires (CRR kg/metric ton)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Weight Reduction (lb)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
8 8 14 8 8 12 8 8 10
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note:
\a\ SI engines were not simulated in GEM, rather a gas/diesel adjustment factor was applied to the results.
Table V-18--GEM Inputs Used To Derive Proposed MY 2024 Vocational Vehicle Standards
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Class 2b-5 Class 6-7 Class 8
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Multi- Multi- Multi-
Urban purpose Regional Urban purpose Regional Urban purpose Regional
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CI Engine\a\
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2024 MY 7L, 2024 MY 11L,
2024 MY 15L, 2024 MY 15L
270 hp Engine345 hp Engine
455hp Engine 455hp
Engine
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Transmission (improvement factor)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
0.045 0.04 0.017 0.045 0.041 0.018 0.045 0.042 0.035
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Axle (improvement factor)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
0.004 0.004 0.004 0.004 0.004 0.004 0.004 0.004 0.014
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Stop-Start (adoption rate)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Neutral Idle (adoption rate)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Steer Tires (CRR kg/metric ton)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Drive Tires (CRR kg/metric ton)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Weight Reduction (lb)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
8 8 14 8 8 12 8 8 10
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note:
\a\ SI engines were not simulated in GEM, rather a gas/diesel adjustment factor was applied to the results.
Table V-19--GEM Inputs Used To Derive Proposed MY 2027 Vocational Vehicle Standards
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Class 2b-5 Class 6-7 Class 8
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Multi- Multi- Multi-
Urban purpose Regional Urban purpose Regional Urban purpose Regional
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CI Engine \a\
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2027 MY 7L, 2027 MY 7L,
2027 MY 11L, 2027 MY 15L
200 hp Engine270 hp Engine
345 hp Engine 455hp
Engine
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Transmission (improvement factor)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
0.096 0.085 0.034 0.096 0.088 0.037 0.097 0.089 0.036
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Axle (improvement factor)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
0.004 0.004 0.004 0.004 0.004 0.004 0.004 0.004 0.014
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
[[Page 40313]]
Stop-Start (adoption rate)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
75% 70% 70% 75% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Neutral Idle (adoption rate)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
25% 30% 30% 25% 30% 30% 30% 30% 0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Steer Tires (CRR kg/metric ton)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Drive Tires (CRR kg/metric ton)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Weight Reduction (lb)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
10 10 16 10 10 14 10 10 12
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note:
\a\ SI engines were not simulated in GEM, rather a gas/diesel adjustment factor was applied to the results.
(d) Technology Package Costs
The agencies have estimated the costs of the technologies that
could be used to comply with the proposed standards. The estimated
costs are shown in Table V-20 for MY2021, in Table V-21 for MY2024, and
Table V-22 for MY 2027. Fleet average costs are shown for light, medium
and heavy HD vocational vehicles in each duty-cycle-based subcategory--
Urban, Multi-Purpose, and Regional. As shown in Table V-20, in MY 2021
these range from approximately $600 for MHD and LHD Regional vehicles,
up to $3,400 for HHD Regional vehicles. Those two lower-cost packages
reflect zero hybrids, and the higher-cost package reflects significant
adoption of automated transmissions. In the draft RIA Chapter 2.13.2,
the agencies present vocational vehicle technology package costs
differentiated by MOVES vehicle type. For example, intercity buses are
estimated to have an average package cost of $2,900 and gasoline motor
homes are estimated to have an average package cost of $450 in MY 2021.
These costs do not indicate the per-vehicle cost that may be incurred
for any individual technology. For more specific information about the
agencies' estimates of per-vehicle costs, please see the draft RIA
Chapter 2.12. For example, Chapter 2.12.7 describes why a complex
technology such as hybridization is estimated to range between $15,000
and $40,000 per vehicle for vocational vehicles in MY 2021. The engine
costs listed represent the cost of an average package of diesel engine
technologies as set out in Section II. Individual technology adoption
rates for engine packages are described in Section II.D. The details
behind all these costs are presented in draft RIA Chapter 2.12,
including the markups and learning effects applied and how the costs
shown here are weighted to generate an overall cost for the vocational
segment. We welcome comments on our technology cost assessments.
[[Page 40314]]
Table V-20--Vocational Vehicle Technology Incremental Costs for the Proposal in the 2021 Model Year\a\ \b\
[2012$]
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Light HD Medium HD Heavy HD
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Multi- Multi- Multi-
Urban purpose Regional Urban purpose Regional Urban purpose Regional
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Engine \c\...................................................... $293 $293 $293 $270 $270 $270 $270 $270 $270
Tires........................................................... 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
Transmission.................................................... 81 81 81 81 81 81 81 81 2,852
Axle related.................................................... 99 99 99 99 99 99 148 148 219
Weight Reduction................................................ 27 27 48 27 27 41 27 27 34
Idle reduction.................................................. 49 49 49 51 51 51 6 6 0
Electrification & hybridization................................. 547 547 0 861 861 0 1,437 1,437 0
Air Conditioning \d\............................................ 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total....................................................... 1,125 1,125 598 1,418 1,418 571 1,998 1,998 3,404
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Notes:
\a\ Costs shown are for the 2021 model year and are incremental to the costs of a vehicle meeting the Phase 1 standards. These costs include indirect costs via markups along with learning
impacts. For a description of the markups and learning impacts considered in this analysis and how it impacts technology costs for other years, refer to Chapter 2 of the draft RIA (see draft
RIA 2.12).
\b\Note that values in this table include adoption rates. Therefore, the technology costs shown reflect the average cost expected for each of the indicated vehicle classes. To see the actual
estimated technology costs exclusive of adoption rates, refer to Chapter 2 of the draft RIA (see RIA 2.9 in particular).
\c\ Engine costs are for a light HD, medium HD or heavy HD diesel engine. We are projecting no additional costs beyond Phase 1 for gasoline vocational engines.
\d\ EPA's air conditioning standards are presented in Section V.C above.
[[Page 40315]]
The estimated fleet average vocational vehicle package costs are
shown in Table V-21 for MY 2024. As shown, these range from
approximately $800 for MHD and LHD Regional vehicles, up to $4,800 for
HHD Regional vehicles. The increased costs above the MY 2021 values
reflect increased adoption rates of individual technologies, while the
individual technology costs are generally expected to remain the same
or decrease, as explained in the draft RIA Chapter 2.12. For example,
Chapter 2.12.7 presents MY 2024 hybridization costs that range from
$13,000 to $33,000 per vehicle for vocational vehicles. The engine
costs listed represent the average costs associated with the proposed
MY 2024 vocational diesel engine standard described in Section II.D.
[[Page 40316]]
Table V-21--Vocational Vehicle Technology Incremental Costs for the Proposal in the 2024 Model Year\a\ \b\
[2012$]
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Light HD Medium HD Heavy HD
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Multi- Multi- Multi-
Urban purpose Regional Urban purpose Regional Urban purpose Regional
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Engine \c\...................................................... $437 $437 $437 $405 $405 $405 $405 $405 $405
Tires........................................................... 17 17 17 17 17 17 23 23 23
Transmission.................................................... 123 123 123 123 123 123 123 123 3,915
Axle related.................................................... 90 90 90 90 90 90 136 136 224
Weight Reduction................................................ 24 24 43 24 24 37 24 24 30
Idle reduction.................................................. 119 119 119 125 125 125 224 224 217
Electrification & hybridization................................. 906 906 0 1,423 1,423 0 2,377 2,377 0
Air Conditioning \d\............................................ 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total....................................................... 1,737 1,737 849 2,228 2,228 817 3,332 3,332 4,834
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Notes:
\a\ Costs shown are for the 2024 model year and are incremental to the costs of a vehicle meeting the Phase 1 standards. These costs include indirect costs via markups along with learning
impacts. For a description of the markups and learning impacts considered in this analysis and how it impacts technology costs for other years, refer to Chapter 2 of the draft RIA (see draft
RIA 2.12).
\b\Note that values in this table include adoption rates. Therefore, the technology costs shown reflect the average cost expected for each of the indicated vehicle classes. To see the actual
estimated technology costs exclusive of adoption rates, refer to Chapter 2 of the draft RIA (see RIA 2.9 in particular).
\c\ Engine costs are for a light HD, medium HD or heavy HD diesel engine. We are projecting no additional costs beyond Phase 1 for gasoline vocational engines.
\d\ EPA's air conditioning standards are presented in Section V.C above.
[[Page 40317]]
The estimated fleet average vocational vehicle package costs are
shown in Table V-22 for MY 2027. As shown, these range from
approximately $1,400 for MHD and LHD Regional vehicles, up to $7,400
for HHD Urban and Multipurpose vehicles. These two subcategories are
projected to have the higher-cost packages in MY 2027 due to an
estimated 18 percent adoption of HHD hybrids, which are estimated to
cost $31,000 per vehicle in MY 2027, as shown in Chapter 2.12.7 of the
draft RIA. These per-vehicle technology package costs were averaged
using our projections of vehicle populations in the nine regulatory
subcategories and do not correspond to the MOVES vehicle types. The
engine costs shown represent the average costs associated with the
proposed MY 2027 vocational diesel engine standard described in Section
II.D. For gasoline vocational vehicles, the agencies are projecting
adoption of Level 2 engine friction reduction with an estimated $68
added to the average SI vocational vehicle package cost in MY 2027,
which represents about 56 percent of those vehicles upgrading beyond
Level 1 engine friction reduction. Further details on how these SI
vocational vehicle costs were estimated are provided in the draft RIA
Chapter 2.9.
Purchase prices of vocational vehicles can range from $60,000 for a
stake-bed landscape truck to over $400,000 for some transit buses. The
costs of the vocational vehicle standards can be put into perspective
by considering package costs estimated using MOVES vehicle types along
with typical prices for those vehicles. For example, a package cost of
$4,000 on a $60,000 short haul straight truck would represent an
incremental increase of about six percent of the vehicle purchase
price. Similarly, a package cost of $7,000 on a $200,000 refuse truck
would represent an incremental increase of less than four percent of
the vehicle purchase price. The vocational vehicle industry
characterization report in the docket includes additional examples of
vehicle prices for a variety of vocational applications.\317\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\317\ See industry characterization, Note 260, above.
[[Page 40318]]
Table V-22--Vocational Vehicle Technology Incremental Costs for the Proposal in the 2027 Model Year\a\ \b\
[2012$]
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Light HD Medium HD Heavy HD
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Multi- Multi- Multi-
Urban purpose Regional Urban purpose Regional Urban purpose Regional
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Engine \c\...................................................... $471 $471 $471 $437 $437 $437 $437 $437 $437
Tires........................................................... 20 20 20 20 20 20 29 29 29
Transmission.................................................... 244 244 267 244 244 267 244 244 2,986
Axle related.................................................... 86 86 86 86 86 86 129 129 215
Weight Reduction................................................ 29 29 46 29 29 40 29 29 35
Idle reduction.................................................. 498 499 499 526 526 526 964 964 962
Electrification & hybridization................................. 2,122 2,122 0 3,336 3,336 0 5,571 5,571 0
Air Conditioning \d\............................................ 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total....................................................... 3,489 3,490 1,407 4,696 4,696 1,395 7,422 7,422 4,682
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Notes:
\a\ Costs shown are for the 2024 model year and are incremental to the costs of a vehicle meeting the Phase 1 standards. These costs include indirect costs via markups along with learning
impacts. For a description of the markups and learning impacts considered in this analysis and how it impacts technology costs for other years, refer to Chapter 2 of the draft RIA (see draft
RIA 2.12).
\b\ Note that values in this table include adoption rates. Therefore, the technology costs shown reflect the average cost expected for each of the indicated vehicle classes. To see the actual
estimated technology costs exclusive of adoption rates, refer to Chapter 2 of the draft RIA (see RIA 2.9 in particular).
\c\ Engine costs are for a light HD, medium HD or heavy HD diesel engine. We are projecting no additional costs beyond Phase 1 for gasoline vocational engines.
\d\ EPA's air conditioning standards are presented in Section V.C above.
[[Page 40319]]
(3) Consistency of the Proposed Vocational Vehicle Standards With the
Agencies' Legal Authority
NHTSA and EPA project the proposed standards to be achievable
within known design cycles, and we believe these standards, although
technology-forcing, would allow many different paths to compliance in
addition to the example outlined in this section. The proposed
standards are predicated on manufacturers implementing technologies
that we expect will be available in the time frame of these proposed
rules, although in some instances these technologies are still under
development or not widely deployed in the current vocational vehicle
fleet. Under the proposal, manufacturers would need to apply a range of
technologies to their vocational chassis, which the agencies believe
would be consistent with the agencies' respective statutory
authorities. We are projecting that most vehicles could adopt certain
of the technologies. For example, we project a 70 to 75 percent
application rate for stop-start idle reduction and advanced axle
lubrication. However, for other technologies, such as strong hybrids
and weight reduction, we are projecting adoption rates of ten percent
or less overall, with individual subcategories having adoption rates
greater or less than this. The proposed standards offer manufacturers
the flexibility to apply the technologies that make sense for their
business and customer needs.
As discussed above, average per-vehicle costs associated with the
proposed 2027 MY standards are projected to be generally less than six
percent of the overall price of a new vehicle. The cost-effectiveness
of these proposed vocational vehicle standards in dollars per ton is
similar to the cost effectiveness estimated for light-duty trucks in
the 2017-2025 light duty greenhouse gas standards, which the agencies
have found to be highly cost effective.\318\ In addition, the
vocational vehicle standards are clearly effective from a net benefits
perspective (see draft RIA Chapter 11.2). Therefore, the agencies
regard the cost of the proposed standards as reasonable.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\318\ See Chapter 5.3 of the final RIA for the MY 2017-2025
Light-Duty GHG Rule, available at https://www.epa.gov/otaq/climate/documents/420r12016.pdf.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
The agencies note that while the projected costs are significantly
greater than the costs projected for Phase 1, we still consider these
costs to be reasonable, especially given that the first vehicle owner
may see the technologies pay for themselves in many cases. As discussed
above, the usual period of ownership for a vocational vehicle reflects
a lengthy trade cycle that may often exceed seven years. For most
vehicle types evaluated, the cost of these technologies, if passed on
fully to customers, would be recovered within five years or less due to
the associated fuel savings, as shown in the payback analysis included
in Section IX and in the draft RIA Chapter 7.1. Specifically, in Table
7-30 of the draft RIA Chapter 7.1.3, a summary is presented with
estimated payback periods for each of the MOVES vocational vehicle
types, using the annual vehicle miles traveled from the MOVES model for
each vehicle type. As shown, the vocational vehicle type with the
shortest payback would be intercity buses (less than one year), while
most other vehicles (with the exception of school buses and motor
homes) are projected to see paybacks in the fifth year or sooner.
The agencies note further that although the proposal is technology-
forcing (especially with respect to driveline improvements) and the
estimated costs for each subcategory vary considerably (by a factor of
five in some cases), these costs represent only one of many possible
pathways to compliance for manufacturers. Manufacturers retain leeway
to develop alternative compliance paths, increasing the likelihood of
the standards' successful implementation. Based on available
information, the agencies believe the proposed standards are
technically feasible within the lead time provided, are cost effective
while accounting for the fuel savings (see draft RIA Chapter 7.1.4),
and have no apparent adverse collateral potential impacts (e.g., there
are no projected negative impacts on safety or vehicle utility).
The proposed standards thus appear to represent a reasonable choice
under Section 202(a) of the CAA and the maximum feasible under NHTSA's
EISA authority at 49 U.S.C. 32902(k)(2). The agencies believe that the
proposed standards are consistent with their respective authorities.
Based on the information currently before the agencies, we believe that
the preferred alternative would be maximum feasible and reasonable for
the vocational segment with a progression of standards reaching full
implementation in MY 2027.
Nevertheless, as discussed in Section I. A. (1) and in Section X
(Alternatives), the agencies seek comment on the feasibility of
Alternative 4, which the agencies may determine is maximum feasible and
reasonable depending on comments and information received during the
comment period. This alternative is discussed in detail below because
it may be possible for manufacturers to accelerate product development
cycles enough to reach the required levels by the 2024 model year.
Thus, the agencies may conclude in the final rules that Alternative 4,
or some elements of this alternative, would be maximum feasible and
appropriate under CAA section 202 (a)(1) and (2), depending on
information and comments received. The agencies seek comments to assist
us in making that determination.
D. Alternative Vocational Vehicle Standards Considered
The agencies have analyzed vocational vehicle standards other than
the proposed standards. These alternatives, listed in Table III-22, are
described in detail in Section X of this preamble and the draft RIA
Chapter 11.
Table V-23--Summary of Alternatives Considered for the Proposed
Rulemaking
------------------------------------------------------------------------
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Alternative 1.......................... No action alternative
Alternative 2.......................... Less stringent than the
proposed alternative, applying
off-the-shelf technologies
Alternative 3 (Proposed Alternative)... Proposed alternative fully
phased-in by MY 2027
Alternative 4.......................... Same stringency as proposed
alternative, except phasing in
faster, by MY 2024
Alternative 5.......................... More stringent alternative,
based on higher adoption rates
of advanced technologies
------------------------------------------------------------------------
NHTSA and EPA are considering an Alternative 4 that achieves the
same level of stringency as the preferred alternative, except it would
provide less lead time, reaching its most stringent level three years
earlier than the
[[Page 40320]]
preferred alternative, that is in MY 2024. The agencies project that
the same selection of technology options would be available to
manufacturers regardless of what alternative is chosen. The preferred
alternative would allow greater lead time to manufacturers to select
and develop technologies for their vehicles.
The agencies have outstanding questions regarding relative risks
and benefits of Alternative 4 due to the time frame envisioned by that
alternative. If the agencies receive relevant information supporting
the feasibility of Alternative 4, the agencies may consider
establishing vocational vehicle standards that provide more overall
reductions than what we are proposing if we deem them to be maximum
feasible and reasonable for NHTSA and EPA, respectively. See the draft
RIA Chapter 11.2.2 for a summary of costs and benefits that compares
the proposed Phase 2 vocational vehicle program with the costs and
benefits of other vocational vehicle alternatives considered.
In the paragraphs that follow, the agencies present the derivation
of the Alternative 4 vocational vehicle standards. For currently
developing technologies where we project an adoption rate that could
present potential risks or challenges, we seek comment on the cost and
effectiveness of such technology. Further, the agencies seek comment on
the potential for adoption of developing technologies into the
vocational vehicle fleet, as well as the extent to which the more
accelerated alternative vocational vehicle standards may depend on such
technology.
(1) Adoption Rates for Derivation of Alternative 4 Vocational Vehicle
Standards
In developing the Alternative 4 standards, the agencies are
projecting a set of technology packages in MY 2024 that is identical to
those projected for the final phase-in year of the preferred
alternative. Because these are the same for each subcategory, the GEM
inputs modeled to derive the level of the MY 2024 Alternative 4
standards can be found in Table V-19, which presents the GEM inputs
used to derive the level of the MY 2027 proposed standards. In the
package descriptions below, the agencies outline technology-specific
adoption rates in MY 2021 for Alternative 4 and offer insights on what
market conditions could enable reaching adoption rates that would
achieve the full implementation levels of stringency with less lead
time.
For transmissions including hybrids, the agencies project for
Alternative 4 that 50 percent of vocational vehicles would have one or
more of the transmission technologies identified above in this section
applied by MY 2021. This includes 25 percent deeply integrated
conventional transmissions that would be recognized over the powertrain
test, 10 percent DCT, 11 percent adding two gears (except zero for HHD
Regional), and nine percent hybrids for vehicles certified in the
Multi-Purpose and Urban subcategories, which we estimate would be five
percent overall. In this alternative, the agencies project 21 percent
of the vocational vehicles with manual transmissions in the HHD
Regional subcategory would upgrade to either an AMT, DCT, or automatic
transmission. The increased projection of driveline integration would
mean that more manufacturers would need to overcome data-sharing
barriers. In this alternative, we project that manufacturers would need
to conduct additional research and development to achieve overall
application of five percent hybrids. In the draft RIA Chapter 7.1, the
agencies have estimated costs for this additional accelerated research.
Comments are requested on the expected costs to accelerate hybrid
development to meet the projected adoption rates of this alternative.
For advanced axle lubricants, the agencies are projecting the same
75 percent adoption rate in MY 2021 as in the proposed program. For
part time or full time 6x2 axles, the agencies project the HHD Regional
vocational vehicles could apply this at the 60 percent adoption rate in
MY 2021, where this level wouldn't be reached until MY 2024 in the
proposed program. One action that could enable this to be achieved is
if information on the reliability of these systems were to be
disseminated to more fleet owners by trustworthy sources.
For lower rolling resistance tires in this alternative, the
agencies project the same adoption rates of LRR tires as in the
proposed program for MY 2021, because we don't expect tire suppliers
would be able to make greater improvements for the models that are
fitted on vocational vehicles in that time frame. The tire research
that is being conducted currently is focused on models for tractors and
trailers, and we project further improved LRR tires would not be
commercially available for vocational vehicles in the early
implementation years of Phase 2.
For the adoption rate of LRR tires in MY 2024 to reach the level
projected for MY 2027 in the proposed program, tire suppliers could
promote their most efficient products to vocational vehicle
manufacturers to achieve equivalent improvements with less lead time.
Depending on how tire manufacturers focus their research and product
development, it is possible that more of the LRR tire advancements
being applied for tractors and trailers could be applied to vocational
vehicles. To see the specific projected adoption rates of different
levels of LRR tires for Alternative 4, see columns three and five of
Table V-16 above.
For workday idle technologies, the agencies project an adoption
rate of 12 percent stop-start in the six MHD and LHD subcategories for
MY 2021 and zero for the HHD vehicles, on the expectation that
manufacturers would have fewer challenges in the short term in bringing
this technology to market for vehicles with lower power demands and
lower engine inertia. In this alternative, the agencies project the
overall workday idle adoption rate would approach 100 percent, such
that any vehicle without stop-start (except HHD Regional) would apply
neutral idle in MY 2021. These adoption raters consider a more
aggressive investment by manufacturers in developing these
technologies. Estimates of research and development costs for this
alternative are presented in the draft RIA Chapter 7.1.
For weight reduction, in this alternative, the agencies project the
same adoption rates of a 200-lb lightweighting package as in the
proposal for each subcategory in MY 2021, which is four to seven
percent. Table V-24 shows the GEM inputs used to derive the level of
the Alternative 4 MY 2021 standards.
[[Page 40321]]
Table V--24--GEM Inputs Used To Derive Alternative 4 MY 2021 Vocational Vehicle Standards
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Class 2b-5 Class 6-7 Class 8
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Multi- Multi- Multi-
Urban purpose Regional Urban purpose Regional Urban purpose Regional
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Alternative 4 CI Engine a
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2021 MY 7L, 200 hp Engine 2021 MY 7L, 270 hp Engine
2021 MY 11L, 345 hp 2021 MY
Engine 15L 455hp
Engine
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Transmission (improvement factor)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
0.045................................................... 0.04 0.014 0.045 0.041 0.015 0.045 0.041 0.018
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Axle (improvement factor)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
0.004................................................... 0.004 0.004 0.004 0.004 0.004 0.004 0.004 0.015
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Stop-Start (adoption rate)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
12%..................................................... 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 0% 0% 0%
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Neutral Idle (adoption rate)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
88%..................................................... 88% 88% 88% 88% 88% 90% 90% 0%
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Steer Tires (CRR kg/metric ton)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
7.1..................................................... 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Drive Tires (CRR kg/metric ton)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
7.5..................................................... 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Weight Reduction (lb)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
8....................................................... 8 14 8 8 12 8 8 10
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note:
\a\ SI engines were not simulated in GEM, rather a gas/diesel adjustment factor was applied to the results.
(2) Possible Alternative 4 Standards
Because the MY 2024 Alternative 4 standards are the same as the
proposed standards for MY 2027 for each subcategory, these numerical
standards can be found in Table V-8 and Table V-9, which present EPA's
and NHTSA's proposed MY 2027 standards, respectively. Table V-25 and
Table V-26 present the Alternative 4 vocational vehicle standards for
the initial year of MY 2021. These represent incremental improvements
over the MY 2017 baseline of six to seven percent for SI-powered
vocational vehicles and nine percent for CI-powered vocational
vehicles.
Table V-25--Alternative 4 EPA CO2 Standards for MY2021 Class 2\b\-8
Vocational Vehicles
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Light heavy- Medium Heavy heavy-
Duty cycle duty Class heavy-duty duty Class
2b-5 Class 6-7 8
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Alternative EPA Standard for Vehicle with CI Engine Effective MY2021
(gram CO2/ton-mile)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Urban............................ 288 183 193
Multi-Purpose.................... 297 185 196
Regional......................... 309 181 185
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Alternative EPA Standard for Vehicle with SI Engine Effective MY2021
(gram CO2/ton-mile)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Urban............................ 313 199 210
Multi-Purpose.................... 323 201 212
Regional......................... 336 197 201
------------------------------------------------------------------------
[[Page 40322]]
Table V-26--Alternative 4 NHTSA Fuel Consumption Standards for MY2021 Class 2\b\-8 Vocational Vehicles
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Light heavy-duty Medium heavy-duty Heavy heavy-duty
Duty cycle Class 2b-5 Class 6-7 Class 8
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Alternative NHTSA Standard for Vehicle with CI Engine Effective MY 2021 (Fuel Consumption gallon per 1,000 ton-
mile)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Urban............................................ 28.2908 17.9764 18.9587
Multi-Purpose.................................... 29.1749 18.1729 19.2534
Regional......................................... 30.3536 17.7800 18.1729
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Alternative NHTSA Standard for Vehicle with SI Engine Effective MY 2021 (Fuel Consumption gallon per 1,000 ton-
mile)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Urban............................................ 35.2200 22.3923 23.6300
Multi-Purpose.................................... 36.3452 22.6173 23.8551
Regional......................................... 37.8080 22.1672 22.6173
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(3) Costs Associated With Alternative 4 Standards
The agencies have estimated the costs of the technologies expected
to be used to comply with the Alternative 4 standards, as shown in
Table V-27 for MY2021. Fleet average costs are shown for light, medium
and heavy HD vocational vehicles in each duty-cycle-based subcategory--
Urban, Multi-Purpose, and Regional. As shown in Table V-27, in MY 2021
these range from approximately $800 for MHD and LHD Regional vehicles,
to $4,300 for HHD Urban and Multipurpose vehicles. Those two
subcategories are projected to have the higher-cost packages in MY 2021
due to an estimated 9 percent adoption of HHD hybrids, which are
estimated to cost $40,000 per vehicle in MY 2021, as shown in Chapter
2.12.7 of the draft RIA. For more specific information about the
agencies' estimates of per-vehicle costs, please see the draft RIA
Chapter 2.12. The engine costs listed represent the cost of an average
package of diesel engine technologies with Alternative 4 adoption rates
described in Section II.D.2(e). The details behind all these costs are
presented in draft RIA Chapter 2.12, including the markups and learning
effects applied and how the costs shown here are weighted to generate
an overall cost for the vocational segment.
Table V-27--Vocational Vehicle Technology Incremental Costs for Alternative 4 Standards in the 2021 Model Year \a\ \b\
(2012$)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Light HD Medium HD Heavy HD
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Multi- Multi- Multi-
Urban purpose Regional Urban purpose Regional Urban purpose Regional
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Engine \c\........................................... $372 $372 $372 $345 $345 $345 $345 $345 $345
Tires................................................ 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
Transmission......................................... 148 148 148 148 148 148 148 148 2,042
Axle related......................................... 99 99 99 99 99 99 148 148 243
Weight Reduction..................................... 27 27 48 27 27 41 27 27 34
Idle reduction....................................... 110 110 110 116 116 116 8 8 0
Electrification & hybridization...................... 1,384 1,384 0 2,175 2,175 0 3,633 3,633 0
Air Conditioning \d\................................. 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total............................................ 2,169 2,169 805 2,938 2,938 777 4,337 4,337 2,693
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Notes:
\a\ Costs shown are for the 2021 model year and are incremental to the costs of a vehicle meeting the Phase 1 standards. These costs include indirect
costs via markups along with learning impacts. For a description of the markups and learning impacts considered in this analysis and how it impacts
technology costs for other years, refer to Chapter 2 of the draft RIA (see draft RIA 2.12).
\b\ Note that values in this table include adoption rates. Therefore, the technology costs shown reflect the average cost expected for each of the
indicated vehicle classes. To see the actual estimated technology costs exclusive of adoption rates, refer to Chapter 2 of the draft RIA (see RIA 2.9
in particular).
\c\ Engine costs are for a light HD, medium HD or heavy HD diesel engine. We are projecting no additional costs beyond Phase 1 for gasoline vocational
engines.
\d\ EPA's air conditioning standards are presented in Section V.C above.
The estimated costs of the technologies expected to be used to
comply with the Alternative 4 standards for MY2024 are shown in Table
V-28. As shown, these range from approximately $1,500 for MHD and LHD
Regional vehicles to $7,900 for HHD Urban and Multipurpose vehicles.
These two subcategories are projected to have the higher-cost packages
in MY 2024 due to an estimated 18 percent adoption of HHD hybrids,
which are estimated to cost $33,000 per vehicle in MY 2024, as shown in
Chapter 2.12.7 of the draft RIA. The engine costs listed represent the
cost of an average package of diesel engine technologies with
Alternative 4 adoption rates described in Section II.D.2(e). For
gasoline vocational vehicles, the agencies are projecting adoption of
Level 2 engine friction reduction with an estimated $74 added to the
average SI vocational vehicle package cost in MY 2024, which represents
about 56 percent of those vehicles upgrading beyond Level 1 engine
friction reduction. Further
[[Page 40323]]
details on how these SI vocational vehicle costs were estimated are
provided in the draft RIA Chapter 2.9.
Table V-28--Vocational Vehicle Technology Incremental Costs for Alternative 4 Standards in the 2024 Model Year \a\
(2012$)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Light HD Medium HD Heavy HD
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Multi- Multi- Multi-
Urban purpose Regional Urban purpose Regional Urban purpose Regional
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Engine \c\........................................... $493 $493 $493 $457 $457 $457 $457 $457 $457
Tires................................................ 26 26 26 26 26 26 40 40 40
Transmission......................................... 256 256 280 256 256 280 256 256 3,123
Axle related......................................... 90 90 90 90 90 90 136 136 224
Weight Reduction..................................... 30 30 49 30 30 43 30 30 37
Idle reduction....................................... 561 524 524 592 553 553 1,014 1,014 1,011
Electrification & hybridization...................... 2,264 2,264 0 3,559 3,559 0 5,943 5,943 0
Air Conditioning \d\................................. 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total............................................ 3,741 3,704 1,482 5,030 4,992 1,469 7,895 7,895 4,912
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Notes:
\a\ Costs shown are for the 2024 model year and are incremental to the costs of a vehicle meeting the Phase 1 standards. These costs include indirect
costs via markups along with learning impacts. For a description of the markups and learning impacts considered in this analysis and how it impacts
technology costs for other years, refer to Chapter 2 of the draft RIA (see draft RIA 2.12).
\b\ Note that values in this table include adoption rates. Therefore, the technology costs shown reflect the average cost expected for each of the
indicated vehicle classes. To see the actual estimated technology costs exclusive of adoption rates, refer to Chapter 2 of the draft RIA (see RIA 2.9
in particular).
\c\ Engine costs shown are for a light HD, medium HD or heavy HD diesel engine. For gasoline-powered vocational vehicles we are projecting $74 of
additional engine-based costs beyond Phase 1.
\d\ EPA's air conditioning standards are presented in Section V.C above.
E. Compliance Provisions for Vocational Vehicles
We welcome comment on all aspects of the compliance program,
including those where we would adopt a provision without change in
Phase 2.
(1) Application and Certification Process
The agencies propose to continue to use GEM to determine compliance
with the proposed vehicle fuel efficiency and CO2 standards.
Because the agencies are proposing to modify GEM to recognize inputs in
addition to those recognized under Phase 1, there is a consequent
proposed requirement that manufacturers or component suppliers conduct
component testing to generate those input values. See Section II for
details of engine testing and GEM inputs for engines.
As described above in Section I, the agencies propose to continue
the Phase 1 compliance process in terms of the manufacturer
requirements prior to the effective model year, during the model year,
and after the model year. The information that would be required to be
submitted by manufacturers is set forth in 40 CFR 1037.205, 49 CFR
537.6, and 49 CFR 537.7. EPA would continue to issue certificates upon
approval based on information submitted through the VERIFY database
(see 40 CFR 1037.255). End of year reports would continue to include
the GEM results for all of the configurations built, along with credit/
deficit balances, if applicable (see 40 CFR 1037.250 and 1037.730).
(a) GEM Inputs
In Phase 1, there were two inputs to GEM for vocational vehicles:
Steer tire coefficient of rolling resistance, and
Drive tire coefficient of rolling resistance
As discussed above in Section II and III.D, there are several
additional inputs that are proposed for Phase 2. In addition to the
steer and drive tire CRR, the proposed inputs include the following:
Engine fuel map,
Engine full-load torque curve,
Engine motoring curve,
Transmission type,
Transmission gear ratios,
Drive axle ratio,
Loaded tire radius for drive and steer tires,
Idle Reduction,
Weight Reduction, and
Other pre-defined off-cycle technologies.
(i) Driveline Inputs
As with tractors, for each engine family, an engine fuel map, full
load torque curve, and motoring curve would be generated by engine
manufacturers as inputs to GEM. The test procedures for the torque and
motoring curves are found in proposed 40 CFR part 1065. Section
II.D.1.b describes these proposed procedures as well as the proposed
new procedure for generating the engine fuel map. Also similar to
tractors, transmission specifications would be input to GEM. Any number
of gears could be entered with a numerical ratio for each, and
transmission type would be selectable as either a Manual, Automated
Manual, Automatic, or Dual Clutch transmission.
As part of the driveline information needed to run GEM, drive axle
ratio would be a user input. If a configuration has a two-speed axle,
the agencies propose that a manufacturer may enter the ratio that is
expected to be engaged most often. We request comment on whether the
agencies should allow this choice. Two-speed axles are typically
specified for heavy-haul vocational vehicles, where the higher
numerical ratio axle would be engaged during transient driving
conditions and to deliver performance needed on work sites, while the
lower numerical ratio axle would be engaged during highway driving. The
agencies request comment on whether we should require GEM to be run
twice, once with each axle ratio, where the output over the highway
cycles would be used from the run with the lower axle ratio, and the
output over the transient cycle would be used from the run with the
higher axle ratio.
Tire size would be a new input to GEM that is necessary for the
model to simulate the performance of the vehicle.
[[Page 40324]]
The draft RIA Chapter 3 includes a description of how to measure tire
size. For each model and nominal size of a tire, there are numerous
possible sizes that could be measured, depending on whether the tire is
new or ``grown,'' meaning whether it has been broken in for at least
200 miles. Size could also vary based on load and inflation levels, air
temperature, and tread depth. The agencies request comment on aspects
of measuring and reporting tire size that could be specified by rule,
to avoid any unnecessary compliance burden of the Phase 2 program.
(ii) Idle Reduction Inputs
Based on user inputs derived from engine testing described in
Section II and draft RIA Chapter 3, GEM would calculate CO2
emissions and fuel consumption at both zero torque (neutral idle) and
with torque set to Curb-Idle Transmission Torque for automatic
transmissions in ``drive'' (as defined in 40 CFR 1065.510(f)(4) for
variable speed engines) for use in the CO2 emission
calculation in 40 CFR 1037.510(b). The proposed regulations at 40 CFR
part 1065 specify that that there must be two consecutive reference
zero load idle points to establish periods of zero load idle for
purposes of calculating total work over an engine test cycle. These two
idle points from the engine test would be used in GEM for purposes of
calculating emissions during vehicle idling over the vocational vehicle
test cycles.
The agencies welcome comments on the inclusion of these
technologies into GEM in Phase 2.
(iii) Weight Reduction Inputs
In Phase 1, the agencies adopted tractor regulations that provided
manufacturers with the ability to utilize high strength steel and
aluminum components for weight reduction without the burden of entering
the curb weight of every tractor produced. In Phase 2, the agencies
propose to apply relevant weights from the tractor lookup table to
vocational vehicles. As noted above, the agencies are proposing to
recognize weight reduction by allocating one half of the weight
reduction to payload in the denominator, while one half of the weight
reduction would be subtracted from the overall weight of the vehicle in
GEM.
To adapt the tractor table for vocational vehicles, the agencies
propose to add lookup values for vehicles in lower weight classes. We
believe it is appropriate to also recognize the weight reduction
associated with 6x2 axles.\319\ Components available for vocational
vehicle manufacturers to select for weight reduction are shown below in
Table V-29, below. We are also proposing to assign a fixed weight
increase to natural gas fueled vehicles to reflect the weight increase
of natural gas fuel tanks versus gasoline or diesel tanks. These are
shown as negative values in Table V-29 to indicate that GEM would
internally compute these values in an inverse manner as would be
computed for a weight reduction, for which the GEM input is a positive
numerical value. We welcome comments on all aspects of weight reduction
approaches and potential weight increases as a byproduct of technology
application.
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\319\ See NACFE Confidence Findings on the Potential of 6x2
Axles, Note 152 above.
Table V--29 Proposed Phase 2 Weight Reduction Technologies for Vocational Vehicles
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Vocational Vehicle Class
Component Material --------------------------------------
Class 2b-5 Class 6-7 Class 8
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Axle Hubs--Non-Drive...................... Aluminum..................... 40 40
Axle Hubs--Non-Drive...................... High Strength Steel.......... 5 5
Axle--Non-Drive........................... Aluminum..................... 60 60
Axle--Non-Drive........................... High Strength Steel.......... 15 15
Brake Drums--Non-Drive.................... Aluminum..................... 60 60
Brake Drums--Non-Drive.................... High Strength Steel.......... 8 8
Axle Hubs--Drive.......................... Aluminum..................... 40 80
Axle Hubs--Drive.......................... High Strength Steel.......... 10 20
Brake Drums--Drive........................ Aluminum..................... 70 140
Brake Drums--Drive........................ High Strength Steel.......... 5.5 11
Clutch Housing............................ Aluminum..................... 34 40
Clutch Housing............................ High Strength Steel.......... 9 10
Suspension Brackets, Hangers.............. Aluminum..................... 67 100
Suspension Brackets, Hangers.............. High Strength Steel.......... 20 30
Transmission Case......................... Aluminum..................... 45 50
Transmission Case......................... High Strength Steel.......... 11 12
Crossmember--Cab.......................... Aluminum..................... 10 14 15
Crossmember--Cab.......................... High Strength Steel.......... 2 4 5
Crossmember--Non-Suspension............... Aluminum..................... 15 18 21
Crossmember--Non-Suspension............... High Strength Steel.......... 5 6 7
Crossmember--Suspension................... Aluminum..................... 15 20 25
Crossmember--Suspension................... High Strength Steel.......... 4 5 6
Driveshaft................................ Aluminum..................... 12 40 50
Driveshaft................................ High Strength Steel.......... 5 10 12
Frame Rails............................... Aluminum..................... 120 300 440
Frame Rails............................... High Strength Steel.......... 24 40 87
Wheels--Dual.............................. Aluminum..................... 126 126 210
Wheels--Dual.............................. High Strength Steel.......... 48 48 80
Wheels--Dual.............................. Lightweight Aluminum......... 180 180 300
Wheels--Wide Base Single.................. Aluminum..................... 278 278 556
Wheels--Wide Base Single.................. High Strength Steel.......... 168 168 336
Wheels--Wide Base Single.................. Lightweight Aluminum......... 294 294 588
[[Page 40325]]
Permanent 6x2 Axle Configuration.......... Multi........................ N/A N/A 300
CI Liquified Natural Gas Vocational Multi........................ \320\ \321\ -600
Vehicle.
SI Compressed Natural Gas Vocational Multi........................ -525
Vehicle.
CI Compressed Natural Gas Vocational Multi........................ -900
Vehicle.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(b) Test Procedures
Powertrain families aredefined in Section II.C.3.b, and powertrain
test procedures are discussed in the draft RIA Chapter 3. The agencies
propose that the results from testing a powertrain configuration using
the matrix of tests described in draft RIA Chapter 3.6 could be applied
broadly across all vocational vehicles in which that powertrain would
be installed.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\320\ See National Energy Policy Institute (2012), Note 200
above.
\321\ See Westport presentation (2013), Note 201, above.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
As in Phase 1, the rolling resistance of each tire would be
measured using the ISO 28850 test method for drive tires and steer
tires planned for fitment to the vehicle being certified. Once the test
CRR values are obtained, a manufacturer would input the CRR values for
the drive and steer tires separately into the GEM. For vocational
vehicles in Phase 2, the agencies propose that the vehicle load would
be distributed with 30 percent of the load over the steer tires and 70
percent of the load over the drive tires. With these data entered, the
amount of GHG reduction attributed to tire rolling resistance would be
incorporated into the overall vehicle compliance value.
(c) Useful Life and In-Use Standards
Section 202(a)(1) of the CAA specifies that emission standards are
to be applicable for the useful life of the vehicle. The standards that
EPA and NHTSA are proposing would apply to individual vehicles and
engines at production and in use. NHTSA is not proposing in-use
standards for vehicles and engines.
Manufacturers may be required to submit, as part of the application
for certification, an engineering analysis showing that emission
control performance will not deteriorate during the useful life, with
proper maintenance. If maintenance will be required to prevent or
minimize deterioration, a demonstration may be required that this
maintenance will be performed in use. See 40 CFR 1037.241.
EPA is proposing to continue the Phase 1 approach to adjustment
factors and deterioration factors. The technologies on which the Phase
1 vocational vehicle standards were predicated were not expected to
have any deterioration of GHG effectiveness in use. However, the
regulations provided a process for manufacturers to develop
deterioration factors (DF) if they needed. We anticipate that some
hybrid powertrain systems may experience some deterioration of
effectiveness with age of the energy storage device. We believe the
regulations in place currently provide adequate instructions to
manufacturers for developing DF where needed. We request comment on
whether any changes to the DF process are needed.
As with engine certification, a manufacturer must provide evidence
of compliance through the regulatory useful life of the vehicle.
Factors influencing vehicle-level GHG performance over the life of the
vehicle fall into two basic categories: Vehicle attributes and
maintenance items. Each category merits different treatment from the
perspective of assessing useful life compliance, as each has varying
degrees of manufacturer versus owner/operator responsibility.
For vocational vehicles, attributes generally refers to components
that are installed by the manufacturer to meet the standard, whose
reduction properties are assessed at the time of certification, and
which are expected to last the full life of the vehicle with
effectiveness maintained as new for the life of the vehicle with no
special maintenance requirements. To assess useful life compliance, we
are proposing to follow a design-based approach that would ensure that
the manufacturer has robustly designed these features so they can
reasonably be expected to last the useful life of the vehicle.
For vocational vehicles, maintenance items generally refers to
items that are replaced, renewed, cleaned, inspected, or otherwise
addressed in the preventative maintenance schedule specified by the
vehicle manufacturer. Replacement items that have a direct influence on
GHG emissions are primarily tires and lubricants, but may also include
hybrid system batteries. Synthetic engine oil may be used by vehicle
manufacturers to reduce the GHG emissions of their vehicles.
Manufacturers may specify that these fluids be changed throughout the
useful life of the vehicle. If this is the case, the manufacturer
should have a reasonable basis that the owner/operator will use fluids
having the same properties. This may be accomplished by requiring (in
service documentation, labeling, etc.) that only these fluids can be
used as replacements. In this proposal, the only maintenance costs we
have quantified are those for tire replacement, as described in Section
IX.C.3 and the draft RIA Chapter 7.1. The agencies invite comments with
information related to maintenance costs that the agencies should
quantify for the final rules.
For current non-hybrid technologies, if the vehicle remains in its
original certified condition throughout its useful life, it is not
believed that GHG emissions would increase as a result of service
accumulation. As in Phase 1, the agencies propose allowing the use of
an assigned deterioration factor of zero where appropriate in Phase 2;
however this does not negate the responsibility of the manufacturer to
ensure compliance with the emission standards throughout the useful
life. The vehicle manufacturer would be primarily responsible for
providing engineering analysis demonstrating that vehicle attributes
will last for the full useful life of the vehicle. We anticipate this
demonstration would show that components are constructed of
sufficiently robust materials and design practices so as not to become
dysfunctional under normal operating conditions.
In Phase 1, EPA set the useful life for engines and vehicles with
respect to GHG emissions equal to the respective useful life periods
for criteria pollutants. In April 2014, as part of the Tier 3 light-
duty vehicle final rule, EPA extended the regulatory useful life period
for criteria pollutants to 150,000 miles or 15 years, whichever comes
first, for Class
[[Page 40326]]
2b and 3 pickup trucks and vans and some light-duty trucks (79 FR
23414, April 28, 2014). Class 2 through Class 5 heavy-duty vehicles
subject to the GHG standards described in this section for vocational
applications generally use the same kinds of engines, transmissions,
and emission controls as the Class 2b and 3 vehicles that are chassis-
certified to the criteria standards under 40 CFR part 86, subpart S.
EPA and NHTSA are therefore proposing that the Phase 2 GHG and fuel
consumption standards for vocational vehicles at or below 19,500 lbs
GVWR apply over the same useful life of 150,000 miles or 15 years. In
many cases, this will result in aligned useful-life values for criteria
and GHG standards. Where this longer useful life is not aligned with
the useful life that applies for criteria standards (generally in the
case of engine-based certification under 40 CFR part 86, subpart A),
EPA may revisit the useful-life values for both criteria and GHG
standards in a future rulemaking. For medium heavy-duty vehicles
(19,500 to 33,000 lbs GVWR) and heavy heavy-duty vehicles (above 33,000
lbs GVWR) EPA is proposing to keep the useful-life values from Phase 1,
which are 185,000 miles (or 10 years) and 435,000 miles (or 10 years),
respectively. EPA requests comment on this approach, including the
proposed values and the overall process envisioned for achieving the
long-term goal of adopting harmonized useful-life specifications for
criteria and GHG standards that properly represent the manufacturers'
obligation to meet emission standards over the expected service life of
the vehicles. EPA may also revisit the useful-life values that apply
for medium heavy-duty vehicles and heavy heavy-duty vehicles.
One technology option for vocational vehicle manufacturers to
reduce GHG emissions is to use a smaller engine, perhaps in conjunction
with a hybrid powertrain. This could lead to a situation where the
engine and the vehicle are subject to emission standards over different
useful-life periods. For example, an urban bus (heavy heavy-duty
vehicle), might be able to use a medium heavy-duty engine, or even a
light heavy-duty engine. While such a mismatch in useful life values
could be confusing, we don't believe it poses any particular policy
problem that we need to address. EPA requests comment on the
possibility of mismatched engine and vehicle useful-life values and on
any possible implications this may have for manufacturers' ability to
design, certify, produce, and sell their engines and vehicles.
(d) Assigning Vehicles to Test Cycles
The agencies propose the following logic for deciding which chassis
configurations would be assigned to each of the three proposed
vocational duty cycles and thus regulatory subcategories:
A vehicle would be certified over the Multipurpose Duty
Cycle, unless one of the following conditions warrants certifying over
either the Regional or Urban cycle.
If the vehicle is powered by a CI engine, use the Regional
Duty Cycle if the resulting value from the calculation described in
Equation V-1 is less than 75 percent.
If the vehicle is powered by a SI engine, use the Regional
Duty Cycle if the resulting value from the calculation described in
Equation V-1 is less than 45 percent.
[GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] TP13JY15.004
Where:
CutpointRegional is the percent of maximum engine test
speed that is achieved at a vehicle speed of 65 mph,
SLR is the static loaded tire radius entered into GEM as specified
in the regulations,
Axle ratio is the drive axle ratio that entered into GEM as
specified in the regulations,
Trans ratio is the ratio of the top transmission gear that is not
permanently locked out,
fntest is the maximum engine test speed as defined at 40
CFR 1065.610, and C is a constant equal to:
[GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] TP13JY15.005
If a vehicle is powered by a CI engine, use the Urban Duty
Cycle if the resulting value from the calculation described in Equation
V-2 is greater than 90 percent.
If a vehicle is powered by a SI engine, use the Urban Duty
Cycle if the resulting value from the calculation described in Equation
V-2 is greater than 50 percent.
[GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] TP13JY15.006
[[Page 40327]]
Where:
CutpointUrban is the percent of maximum engine test speed
that is achieved at a vehicle speed of 55 mph,
SLR is the static loaded tire radius entered into GEM as specified
in the regulations,
Axle ratio is the drive axle ratio that is entered into GEM as
specified in the regulations,
Trans ratio is the ratio of the top transmission gear that is not
permanently locked out,
fntest is the maximum engine test speed as defined at 40
CFR 1065.610, and C is a constant equal to:
[GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] TP13JY15.007
The agencies ran GEM with many vocational vehicle configurations to
develop a data set with which we could assess appropriate cutpoints for
the above equations. The configurations varied primarily by the engine
model, fuel type, and axle ratio. See the draft RIA Chapter 2.9.2 for
further details on the assessment process for these proposed cutpoints.
The agencies realize that there are vocational vehicles for which
the above logic may not result in an appropriate assignment of test
cycle. Therefore we are proposing an exception that would enable any
vehicle with a hybrid drivetrain to certify over the Urban test cycle.
Further, we are proposing that the following vehicles must be certified
using the Regional cycle: intercity coach buses, recreational vehicles,
and vehicles whose engine is exclusively certified over the SET. We are
also proposing to allow manufacturers to request a different duty
cycle. We request comment on this approach, and whether we should allow
manufacturers to have complete freedom to select a test cycle without
any need for EPA or NHTSA approval.
(2) Other Compliance Provisions
(a) Emission Control Labels
The agencies consider it crucial that authorized compliance
inspectors are able to identify whether a vehicle is certified, and if
so whether it is in its certified condition. To facilitate this
identification in Phase 1, EPA adopted labeling provisions for
vocational vehicles that included several items. The Phase 1 vocational
vehicle label must include the manufacturer, vehicle identifier such as
the Vehicle Identification Number, vehicle family, regulatory
subcategory, date of manufacture, compliance statements, and emission
control system identifiers (see 40 CFR 1037.135). In Phase 1, the
vocational vehicle emission control system identifier is tire rolling
resistance, plus any innovative and advanced technologies.
The number of proposed emission control systems for greenhouse gas
emissions in Phase 2 has increased significantly. For example, the
engine, transmission, axle configuration, tire radius, and idle
reduction system are control systems that can be evaluated on-cycle in
Phase 2 (i.e. these technologies' performance can now be input to GEM),
but could not be evaluated in Phase 1. Due to the complexity in
determining greenhouse gas emissions as proposed in Phase 2, the
agencies do not believe that we can unambiguously determine whether or
not a vehicle is in a certified condition through simply comparing
information that could be made available on an emission control label
with the components installed on a vehicle. Therefore, EPA proposes to
remove the requirement to include the emission control system
identifiers required in 40 CFR 1037.135(c)(6) and in Appendix III to 40
CFR part 1037 from the emission control labels for vocational vehicles
certified to the primary Phase 2 standards. However, the agencies may
finalize requirements to maintain some label content to facilitate a
limited visual inspection of key vehicle parameters that can be readily
observed. Such requirements may be very similar to the labeling
requirements from the Phase 1 rulemaking, though we would want to more
carefully consider the list of technologies that would allow for the
most effective inspection. We request comment on an appropriate list of
candidate technologies that would properly balance the need to limit
label content with the interest in providing the most useful
information for inspectors to confirm that vehicles have been properly
built. EPA is not proposing to modify the existing emission control
labels for vocational vehicles certified for MYs 2014-2020 (Phase 1)
CO2 standards.
Under the agencies' existing authorities, manufacturers must
provide detailed build information for a specific vehicle upon our
request. Our expectation is that this information should be available
to us via email or other similar electronic communication on a same-day
basis, or within 24 hours of a request at most. We request comment on
any practical limitations in promptly providing this information. We
also request comment on approaches that would minimize burden for
manufacturers to respond to requests for vehicle build information and
would expedite an authorized compliance inspector's visual inspection.
For example, the agencies have started to explore ideas that would
provide inspectors with an electronic method to identify vehicles and
access on-line databases that would list all of the engine-specific and
vehicle-specific emissions control system information. We believe that
electronic and Internet technology exists today for using scan tools to
read a bar code or radio frequency identification tag affixed to a
vehicle that would then lead to secure on-line access to a database of
manufacturers' detailed vehicle and engine build information. Our
exploratory work on these ideas has raised questions about the level of
effort that would be required to develop, implement and maintain an
information technology system to provide inspectors real-time access to
this information. We have also considered questions about privacy and
data security. We request comment on the concept of electronic labels
and database access, including any available information on similar
systems that exist today and on burden estimates and approaches that
could address concerns about privacy and data security. Based on new
information that we receive, we may consider initiating a separate
rulemaking effort to propose and request comment on implementing such
an approach.
(b) End of Year Reports
In the Phase 1 program, manufacturers participating in the ABT
program provided 90 day and 270 day reports to EPA and NHTSA after the
end of the model year. The agencies adopted two reports for the initial
program to help manufacturers become familiar with the reporting
process. For the HD Phase 2 program, the agencies propose to simplify
reporting such that
[[Page 40328]]
manufacturers would only be required to submit one end of the year
report 120 days after the end of the model year with the potential to
obtain approval for a delay up to 30 days. We welcome comment on this
proposed revision.
(c) Delegated Assembly
The proposed standards for vocational vehicles are based on the
application of a wide range of technologies. Certifying vehicle
manufacturers manage their compliance demonstration to reflect this
range of technologies by describing their certified configurations in
the application for certification. In many cases, these technologies
are designed and assembled (or installed) directly by the certifying
vehicle manufacturer, which is typically the chassis manufacturer. In
these cases, it is straightforward to assign the responsibility to the
certifying vehicle manufacturer for ensuring that vehicles are in their
proper certified configuration when sold to the ultimate user. In Phase
1, the only vehicle technology available for certified vocational
vehicles was LRR tires. Because these are generally installed by the
chassis manufacturer, there would have been no need to rely on a second
stage manufacturer for purposes of certification.
In Phase 2, the agencies are considering certain technologies where
the certifying vehicle manufacturer may want or need to rely on a
downstream manufacturing company (a secondary vehicle manufacturer) to
take steps to assemble or install certain components or technologies to
bring the vehicle into a certified configuration. A similar
relationship between manufacturers applies with aftertreatment devices
for certified engines. EPA has adopted ``delegated assembly''
provisions for engines at 40 CFR 1068.261 to describe how manufacturers
can share compliance responsibilities through these cooperative
assembly procedures.
We are proposing to take a similar approach for vehicle-based GHG
standards in 40 CFR part 1037. The delegated assembly provisions as
proposed for GHG standards are focused on add-on features to reduce
aerodynamic drag, and on air conditioning systems. This may occur, for
example, if the certifying manufacturer sells a cab-complete chassis to
a secondary vehicle manufacturer, which in turn installs a box with the
appropriate aerodynamic accessories to reduce drag losses. To the
extent certifying manufacturers rely on secondary vehicle manufacturers
to bring the vehicle into a certified configuration, the following
provisions would apply:
The certifying manufacturer would describe their approach
to delegated assembly in the application for certification.
The certifying manufacturer would create installation
instructions to describe how the secondary vehicle manufacturer would
bring the vehicle into a certified configuration.
The certifying manufacturer would have a contractual
agreement with each affected secondary vehicle manufacturer obligating
the secondary vehicle manufacturer to build each vehicle into a
certified configuration and to provide affidavits confirming proper
assembly procedures, and to provide information regarding deployment of
each type of technology (if there are technology options that relate to
different GEM input values).
The delegated assembly provisions are most relevant to vocational
vehicles, but we are not proposing to limit these provisions to
vocational vehicles. Similarly, we expect that aerodynamic devices and
air conditioning systems are the most likely technologies for which
delegated assembly is appropriate, but we are not proposing to limit
the use of delegated assembly to these technologies.
Secondary manufacturers (such as body builders) that build complete
vehicles from certified chassis are obligated to comply with the
emission-related installation instructions provided by the certifying
manufacturer. Secondary manufacturers that build complete vehicles from
exempted chassis are obligated to comply with all of the regulations.
The draft regulations at 40 CFR 1037.621 describe further detailed
provisions related to delegated assembly. We request comment on all
aspects of these provisions. In particular, we request comment on how
the procedures should be applied more broadly or more narrowly for
specific technologies. We also request comment on any further
modifications that should be made to the delegated assembly provisions
to reflect the nature of manufacturing relationships or technologies
that are specific to greenhouse gas standards for heavy-duty highway
vehicles.
(d) Demonstrating Compliance With Proposed HFC Leakage Standards
EPA is proposing requirements for vocational chassis manufacturers
to demonstrate reductions in direct emissions of HFC in their A/C
systems and components through a design-based method. The method for
calculating A/C leakage is the same as was adopted in Phase 1 for
tractors and HD pickups and vans. It is based closely on an industry-
consensus leakage scoring method, described below. This leakage scoring
method is correlated to experimentally-measured leakage rates from a
number of vehicles using the different available A/C components. As is
done currently for other HD vehicles, vocational chassis manufacturers
would choose from a menu of A/C equipment and components used in their
vehicles in order to establish leakage scores, to characterize their A/
C system leakage performance. The percent leakage per year would then
be calculated as this score divided by the system refrigerant capacity.
Consistent with the light-duty rule and the Phase 1 program for
other HD vehicles, EPA is proposing a requirement that vocational
chassis manufacturers compare the components of a vehicle's A/C system
with a set of leakage-reduction technologies and actions that is based
closely on that developed through the Improved Mobile Air Conditioning
program and SAE International (as SAE Surface Vehicle Standard J2727,
``HFC-134a, Mobile Air Conditioning System Refrigerant Emission
Chart,'' August 2008 version). See generally 75 FR 25426. The SAE J2727
approach was developed from laboratory testing of a variety of A/C
related components, and EPA believes that the J2727 leakage scoring
system generally represents a reasonable correlation with average real-
world leakage in new vehicles. This approach associates each component
with a specific leakage rate in grams per year that is identical to the
values in J2727 and then sums together the component leakage values to
develop the total A/C system leakage. Unlike the light-duty program, in
the heavy-duty vehicle program, the total A/C leakage score is divided
by the value of the total refrigerant system capacity to develop a
percent leakage per year. EPA believes that the design-based approach
results in estimates of likely leakage emissions reductions that are
comparable to those that would result from performance-based testing.
Consistent with HD GHG Phase 1, EPA is not proposing a specific in-
use standard for leakage, as neither test procedures nor facilities
exist to measure refrigerant leakage from a vehicle's air conditioning
system. However, consistent with the HD Phase 1 program and the light-
duty rule, where we propose to require that manufacturers attest to the
durability of components and systems used to meet the CO2
standards (see 75 FR 25689), we
[[Page 40329]]
propose to require that manufacturers of heavy-duty vocational vehicles
attest to the durability of these systems, and provide an engineering
analysis that demonstrates component and system durability.
(e) Glider Vehicles
EPA is proposing to not exempt glider vehicles from the Phase 2 GHG
emission and fuel consumption standards.\322\ Gliders and glider kits
are exempt from NHTSA's Phase 1 fuel consumption standards. EPA's
interim provisions of Phase 1 exempted glider vehicles produced by
small businesses from the Phase 1 CO2 emission standards but
did not include such a blanket exemption for other glider
vehicles.\323\ Thus, some glider vehicles are already subject to the
requirement to obtain a vehicle certificate prior to introduction into
commerce as a new vehicle. However, the agencies believe glider
manufacturers may not understand how these regulations apply to them,
resulting in a number of uncertified vehicles.
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\322\ Glider vehicles are new vehicles produced to accept
rebuilt engines (or other used engines) along with used axles and/or
transmissions. The common term ``glider kit'' is used here primarily
to refer to an assemblage of parts into which the used/rebuilt
engine is installed.
\323\ Rebuilt engines used in glider vehicles are subject to EPA
criteria pollutant emission standards applicable for the model year
of the engine. See 40 CFR 86.004-40 for requirements that apply for
engine rebuilding. Under existing regulations, engines that remain
in their certified configuration after rebuilding may continue to be
used.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
EPA is concerned about adverse economic impacts on small businesses
that assemble glider kits and glider vehicles. Therefore, EPA is
proposing a new provision that would grandfather existing small
businesses, but cap annual production based on recent sales. This
approach is consistent with the approach recommended by the Small
Business Advocacy Review Panel, which believed there should be an
allowance to produce some glider vehicles for legitimate purposes. EPA
requests comment on whether any special provisions would be needed to
accommodate glider vehicles. See Section XIV.B for additional
discussion of the proposed requirements for glider vehicles.
Similarly, NHTSA is considering including gliders under its Phase 2
program. The agencies request comment on their respective
considerations. We believe that the agencies potentially having
different policies for glider kits and glider vehicles under the Phase
2 program would not result in problematic disharmony between the NHTSA
and EPA programs, because of the small number of vehicles that would be
involved. EPA believes that its proposed changes would result in the
glider market returning to the pre-2007 levels, in which fewer than
1,000 glider vehicles would be produced in most years. Given that a
large fraction of these vehicles would be exempted from EPA regulations
because they would be produced by qualifying small businesses, they
would thus, in practice, be treated the same under EPA and NHTSA
regulations. Only non-exempt glider vehicles would be subject to
different requirements under the NHTSA and EPA regulations. However, we
believe that this is unlikely to exceed a few hundred vehicles in any
year, which would be few enough not to result in any meaningful
disharmony between the two agencies.
With regard to NHTSA's safety authority over gliders, the agency
notes that it has become increasingly aware of potential noncompliance
with its regulations applicable to gliders. NHTSA has learned of
manufacturers who are creating glider vehicles that are new vehicles
under 49 CFR 571.7(e); however, the manufacturers are not certifying
them and obtaining a new VIN as required. NHTSA plans to pursue
enforcement actions as applicable against noncompliant manufacturers.
In addition to enforcement actions, NHTSA may consider amending 49 CFR
571.7(e) and related regulations as necessary in the future. NHTSA
believes manufacturers may not be using this regulation as originally
intended.
(3) Proposed Compliance Flexibility Provisions
EPA and NHTSA are proposing three flexibility provisions
specifically for vocational vehicle manufacturers in Phase 2. These are
an averaging, banking and trading program for CO2 emissions
and fuel consumption credits, provisions for off-cycle credits for
technologies that are not included as inputs to the GEM, and optional
chassis certification. The agencies are also proposing to remove or
modify several Phase 1 interim provisions, as described below. Program-
wide compliance flexibilities are discussed in Section I.B.3 to I.C.1.
(a) Averaging, Banking, and Trading (ABT) Program
Averaging, banking, and trading of emission credits have been an
important part of many EPA mobile source programs under CAA Title II.
ABT provisions provide manufacturers flexibilities that assist in the
efficient development and implementation of new technologies and
therefore enable new technologies to be implemented at a more
aggressive pace than without ABT. NHTSA and EPA propose to carry-over
the Phase 1 ABT provisions for vocational vehicles into Phase 2, as it
is an important way to achieve each agency's programmatic goals. ABT is
also discussed in Section I and Section III.F.1.
Consistent with the Phase 1 averaging sets, the agencies propose
that chassis manufacturers may average SI-powered vocational vehicle
chassis with CI-powered vocational vehicle chassis, within the same
vehicle weight class group. In Phase 1, all vocational and tractor
chassis within a vehicle weight class group were able to average with
each other, regardless of whether they were powered by a CI or SI
engine. The proposed Phase 2 approach would continue this. The only
difference is that in Phase 2, there would be different numerical
standards set for the SI-powered and CI-powered vehicles, but that
would not need to alter the basis for averaging. This is consistent
with the Phase 1 approach where, for example, Class 8 day cab tractors,
Class 8 sleeper cab tractors and Class 8 vocational vehicles each have
different numerical standards, while they all belong to the same
averaging set.
As discussed in V. E. (1) (c), EPA and NHTSA are proposing to
change the useful life for LHD vocational vehicles for GHG emissions
from the current 10 years/110,000 miles to 15 years/150,000 miles to be
consistent with the useful life of criteria pollutants recently updated
in EPA's Tier 3 rule. For the same reasons, EPA and NHTSA are also
proposing a useful life adjustment for HD pickups and vans, as
described in Section VI.E.(1). According to the credits calculation
formula at 40 CFR 1037.705 and 49 CFR 535.7, useful life in miles is a
multiplicative factor included in the calculation of CO2 and
fuel consumption credits. In order to ensure that banked credits would
maintain their value in the transition from Phase 1 to Phase 2, NHTSA
and EPA propose an interim vocational vehicle adjustment factor of 1.36
for credits that are carried forward from Phase 1 to the MY 2021 and
later Phase 2 standards.\324\ Without this adjustment factor the
proposed change in useful life would effectively result in a discount
of banked credits that are carried forward from Phase 1 to Phase 2,
which is not the intent of the change in the useful life. The agencies
do not believe that this proposed adjustment would result in a loss of
program benefits because
[[Page 40330]]
there is little or no deterioration anticipated for CO2
emissions and fuel consumption over the life of the vehicles. Also, the
carry-forward of credits is an integral part of the program, helping to
smoothing the transition to the new Phase 2 standards. The agencies
believe that effectively discounting carry-forward credits from Phase 1
to Phase 2 would be unnecessary and could negatively impact the
feasibility of the proposed Phase 2 standards. EPA and NHTSA request
comment on all aspects of the averaging, banking, and trading program.
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\324\ See 40 CFR 1037.150(s) and 49 CFR 535.7.
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(b) Innovative and Off-Cycle Technology Credits
In Phase 1, the agencies adopted an emissions and fuel consumption
credit generating opportunity that applied to innovative technologies
that reduce fuel consumption and CO2 emissions. These
technologies were required to not be in common use with heavy-duty
vehicles before the 2010MY and not reflected in the GEM simulation tool
(i.e., the benefits are ``off-cycle''). See 76 FR 57253. The agencies
propose to largely continue the Phase 1 innovative technology program
but to redesignate it as an off-cycle program for Phase 2. The agencies
propose to maintain that, in order for a manufacturer to receive
credits for Phase 2, the off-cycle technology would still need to meet
the requirement that it was not in common use prior to MY 2010.
The agencies recognize that there are emerging technologies today
that are being developed, but would not be accounted for in the GEM
tool, and therefore would be considered off-cycle. These technologies
could include systems such as electrified accessories, air conditioning
system efficiency, and aerodynamics for vocational vehicles beyond
those tested and pre-approved in the HD Phase 2 program. Such off-cycle
technologies could include known, commercialized technologies if they
are not yet widely utilized in a particular heavy-duty sector
subcategory. Any credits for these technologies would need to be based
on real-world fuel consumption and GHG reductions that can be measured
with verifiable test methods using representative driving conditions
typical of the engine or vehicle application. More information about
off-cycle technology credits can be found at Section I.C.1.c.
As in Phase 1, the agencies are proposing to continue to provide
two paths for approval of the test procedure to measure the
CO2 emissions and fuel consumption reductions of an off-
cycle technology used in vocational vehicles. See 40 CFR 1037.610 and
49 CFR 535.7. The first path would not require a public approval
process of the test method. A manufacturer could use ``pre-approved''
test methods for HD vehicles including the A-to-B chassis testing,
powerpack testing or on-road testing. A manufacturer may also use any
developed test procedure that has known quantifiable benefits. A test
plan detailing the testing methodology would be required to be approved
prior to collecting any test data. The agencies are also proposing to
continue the second path, which includes a public approval process of
any testing method that could have questionable benefits (i.e., an
unknown usage rate for a technology). Furthermore, the agencies are
proposing to modify their provisions to clarify what documentation must
be submitted for approval, which would align them with provisions in 40
CFR 86.1869-12. NHTSA is separately proposing to prohibit credits from
technologies addressed by any of its crash avoidance safety rulemakings
(i.e., congestion management systems). See also 77 FR 62733 (discussion
of similar issue in the light duty greenhouse gas/fuel economy
regulations). We welcome recommendations on how to improve or
streamline the off-cycle technology approval process.
There are some technologies that are entering the market today, and
although our model does not have the capability to simulate the
effectiveness over the test cycles, there are reliable estimates of
effectiveness available to the agencies. These are proposed to be
recognized in our HD Phase 2 certification procedures as pre-defined
technologies, and would not be considered off-cycle. Examples of such
technologies for vocational vehicles include 6x2 axles and axle
lubricants. These default effectiveness values would be used as valid
inputs to GEM. The projected effectiveness of each vocational vehicle
technology is discussed in the draft RIA Chapter 2.9.
The agencies propose that the approval for Phase 1 innovative
technology credits (approved prior to 2021 MY) would be carried into
the Phase 2 program on a limited basis for those technologies where the
benefit is not accounted for in the Phase 2 test procedure. Therefore,
the manufacturers would not be required to request new approval for any
innovative credits carried into the off-cycle program, but would have
to demonstrate the new cycle does not account for these improvements
beginning in the 2021 MY. The agencies believe this is appropriate
because technologies, such as those related to the transmission or
driveline, may no longer be ``off-cycle'' because of the addition of
these technologies into the Phase 2 version of GEM. The agencies also
seek comments on whether off-cycle technologies in the Phase 2 program
should be limited by infrequent common use and by what model years, if
any. We also seek comments on an appropriate penetration rate for a
technology not to be considered in common use.
(c) Optional Chassis Certification
In Phase 2, the agencies are proposing to continue the Phase 1
provisions allowing the optional chassis certification of vehicles over
14,000 lbs GVWR. In Phase 1 the agencies allowed manufacturers the
option to choose to comply with heavy-duty pickup or van standards, for
incomplete vehicles that were identical to those on complete pickup
truck or van counterparts, with respect to most components that affect
GHG emissions and fuel consumption, such as engines, cabs, frames,
transmissions, axles, and wheels. The incomplete vehicles would
typically be produced as cab-complete vehicles. For example, a
manufacturer could certify under this allowance an incomplete pickup
truck that includes the cab, but not the bed. The Phase 1 program also
includes provisions that allow manufacturers to include some Class 4
and Class 5 vehicles in averaging sets subject to the chassis-based HD
pickup and van standards, rather than the vocational vehicle
program.\325\
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\325\ See 76 FR 57259-57260, September 15, 2011 and 78 FR 36374,
June 17, 2013.
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This optional chassis certification of vehicles over 14,000 lbs
applies for greenhouse gas emission standards in Phase 1, but not for
criteria pollutant emission standards. We revisited this issue in the
recent Tier 3 final rule, where we revised the regulation to allow this
same flexibility relative to exhaust emission standards for criteria
pollutants. However, EPA is now seeking comment on the proper approach
for certifying vehicles above 14,000 lbs GVWR, because there are
lingering questions about how best to align the certification processes
for GHG emissions and for criteria pollutants. The agencies are
requesting comment on several issues on this topic, including whether
there should be an upper weight limit to this allowance. See Section
XIV.A.2 for the issues on which the agencies seek comment with respect
to chassis and engine certification for GHG and criteria pollutants for
vehicles opting into the HD pickup and van program.
[[Page 40331]]
(d) Phase 1 Flexibilities Not Proposed for Phase 2
As described above in Section I, the agencies are not proposing to
provide advanced technology credits in Phase 2. These technologies had
been defined in Phase 1 as hybrid powertrains, Rankine cycle engines,
all-electric vehicles, and fuel cell vehicles (see 40 CFR 1037.150(i)),
at a 1.5 credit value with the purpose to promote the early
implementation of advanced technologies that were not expected to be
widely adopted in the market in the 2014 to 2018 time frame. Our
feasibility assessment for the proposed Phase 2 vocational vehicle
standards includes a projection of the use of hybrid powertrains as
described earlier in this section; therefore the agencies believe it
would no longer be appropriate to provide extra credit for this
technology. As noted above, waste heat recovery is not projected to be
utilized for vocational vehicles within the time frame of Phase 2.
While the agencies are not proposing to premise the Phase 2 vocational
vehicle standards on fuel cells or electric vehicles, we expect that
any vehicle certified with this technology would provide such a large
credit to a manufacturer that an additional incentive credit would not
be necessary. We welcome comments on the need for such incentives,
including information on why an incentive for specific technologies in
this time frame may be warranted, recognizing that the incentive would
result in reduced benefits in terms of CO2 emissions and
fuel use due to the Phase 2 program.
The agencies are not proposing to extend early credits to
manufacturers who comply early with Phase 2 standards, because the ABT
program from Phase 1 will be available to manufacturers and this
displaces the need for early credits (see 40 CFR 1037.150(a)). Please
see the more complete discussion of this above in Section I.
Another Phase 1 interim flexibility that the agencies are not
proposing to continue in Phase 2 is the flexibility known as the
``loose engine'' provision, whereby SI engines sold to chassis
manufacturers and intended for use in vocational vehicles need not meet
the separate SI engine standard (see preamble Section II and draft RIA
Chapter 2.6), and instead may be averaged with the manufacturer's HD
pickup and van fleet. We believe the benefits this particular
flexibility offers for manufacturers in the interim between Phase 1 and
Phase 2 would diminish considerably in Phase 2. The agencies are
proposing a Phase 2 SI engine standard that is no more stringent than
the MY 2016 SI engine standard adopted in Phase 1, while the proposed
Phase 2 standards for the HD pickup and van fleet would be
progressively more stringent through MY 2027. The primary certification
path designed in the Phase 1 program for both CI and SI engines sold
separately and intended for use in vocational vehicles was that they be
engine certified while the vehicle would be GEM certified under the GHG
rules. In Phase 2 the agencies propose to continue this as the
certification path for such engines intended for vocational vehicles.
See the draft RIA Chapter 2.6 for further discussion of the separate
engine standard for SI engines intended for vocational vehicles.
(e) Other Phase 1 Interim Provisions
In HD Phase 1, EPA adopted provisions to delay the onboard
diagnostics (OBD) requirements for heavy-duty hybrid powertrains (see
40 CFR 86.010-18(q)). This provision delayed full OBD requirements for
hybrids until MY 2016 and MY 2017. In discussion with manufacturers
during the development of Phase 2, the agencies have learned that
meeting the on-board diagnostic requirements for criteria pollutant
engine certification continues to be a potential impediment to adoption
of hybrid systems. See Section XIII.A.1 for a discussion of regulatory
changes proposed to reduce the non-GHG certification burden for engines
paired with hybrid powertrain systems.
Also in Phase 1, EPA adopted provisions that reinforced the fact
that we were setting GHG emissions from the tailpipe of heavy-duty
vehicles. Therefore, we treated all electric vehicles as having zero
emissions of CO2, CH4, and N2O (see 40
CFR 1037.150(f)). Similarly, NHTSA adopted regulations in Phase 1 that
set the fuel consumption standards based on the fuel consumed by the
vehicle. The agencies also did not require emission testing for
electric vehicles in Phase 1. The agencies considered the potential
unintended consequence of ignoring upstream emissions from the charging
of heavy-duty battery-electric vehicles. In our assessment, we have
observed that the few all-electric heavy-duty vocational vehicles that
have been certified are being produced in very small volumes in MY2014.
As we look to the future, we project very limited adoption of electric
vocational vehicles into the market; therefore, we believe that this
provision is still appropriate. Unlike the MY2012-2016 light-duty rule,
which adopted a cap whereby upstream emissions would be counted after a
certain volume of sales (see 75 FR 25434-25436), we believe there is no
need to propose a cap for vocational vehicles because of the infrequent
projected use of EV technologies in the Phase 2 timeframe. In Phase 2,
we propose to continue to deem electric vehicles as having zero
CO2, CH4, and N2O emissions as well as
zero fuel consumption. We welcome comments on this approach.
VI. Heavy-Duty Pickups and Vans
A. Introduction and Summary of Phase 1 HD Pickup and Van Standards
In the Phase 1 rule, EPA and NHTSA established GHG and fuel
consumption standards and a program structure for complete Class 2b and
3 heavy-duty vehicles (referred to in these rules as ``HD pickups and
vans''), as described below. The Phase 1 standards began to be phased-
in in MY 2014 and the agencies believe the program is working well. The
agencies are proposing to retain most elements from the structure of
the program established in the Phase 1 rule for the Phase 2 program
while proposing more stringent Phase 2 standards for MY 2027, phased in
over MYs 2021-2027, that would require additional GHG reductions and
fuel consumption improvements. The MY 2027 standards would remain in
place unless and until amended by the agencies.
Heavy-duty vehicles with GVWR between 8,501 and 10,000 lb are
classified in the industry as Class 2b motor vehicles. Class 2b
includes vehicles classified as medium-duty passenger vehicles (MDPVs)
such as very large SUVs. Because MDPVs are frequently used like light-
duty passenger vehicles, they are regulated by the agencies under the
light-duty vehicle rules. Thus the agencies did not adopt additional
requirements for MDPVs in the Phase 1 rule and are not proposing
additional requirements for MDPVs in this rulemaking. Heavy-duty
vehicles with GVWR between 10,001 and 14,000 lb are classified as Class
3 motor vehicles. Class 2b and Class 3 heavy-duty vehicles together
emit about 15 percent of today's GHG emissions from the heavy-duty
vehicle sector.
About 90 percent of HD pickups and vans are \3/4\-ton and 1-ton
pickup trucks, 12- and 15-passenger vans, and large work vans that are
sold by vehicle manufacturers as complete vehicles, with no secondary
manufacturer making substantial modifications prior to registration and
use. Most of these vehicles are produced by companies with major light-
duty markets in the
[[Page 40332]]
United States, primarily Ford, General Motors, and Chrysler. Often, the
technologies available to reduce fuel consumption and GHG emissions
from this segment are similar to the technologies used for the same
purpose on light-duty pickup trucks and vans, including both engine
efficiency improvements (for gasoline and diesel engines) and vehicle
efficiency improvements.
In the Phase 1 rule EPA adopted GHG standards for HD pickups and
vans based on the whole vehicle (including the engine), expressed as
grams of CO2 per mile, consistent with the way these
vehicles are regulated by EPA today for criteria pollutants. NHTSA
adopted corresponding gallons per 100 mile fuel consumption standards
that are likewise based on the whole vehicle. This complete vehicle
approach adopted by both agencies for HD pickups and vans was
consistent with the recommendations of the NAS Committee in its 2010
Report. EPA and NHTSA adopted a structure for the Phase 1 HD pickup and
van standards that in many respects paralleled long-standing NHTSA CAFE
standards and more recent coordinated EPA GHG standards for
manufacturers' fleets of new light-duty vehicles. These commonalities
include a new vehicle fleet average standard for each manufacturer in
each model year and the determination of these fleet average standards
based on production volume-weighted targets for each model, with the
targets varying based on a defined vehicle attribute. Vehicle testing
for both the HD and light-duty vehicle programs is conducted on chassis
dynamometers using the drive cycles from the EPA Federal Test Procedure
(Light-duty FTP or ``city'' test) and Highway Fuel Economy Test (HFET
or ``highway'' test).\326\
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\326\ The Light-duty FTP is a vehicle driving cycle that was
originally developed for certifying light-duty vehicles and
subsequently applied to HD chassis testing for criteria pollutants.
This contrasts with the Heavy-duty FTP, which refers to the
transient engine test cycles used for certifying heavy-duty engines
(with separate cycles specified for diesel and spark-ignition
engines).
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For the light-duty GHG and fuel economy \327\ standards, the
agencies factored in vehicle size by basing the emissions and fuel
economy targets on vehicle footprint (the wheelbase times the average
track width).\328\ For those standards, passenger cars and light trucks
with larger footprints are assigned higher GHG and lower fuel economy
target levels in acknowledgement of their inherent tendency to consume
more fuel and emit more GHGs per mile. EISA requires that NHTSA study
``the appropriate metric for measuring and expressing commercial
medium- and heavy-duty vehicle and work truck fuel efficiency
performance, taking into consideration, among other things, the work
performed by such on-highway vehicles and work trucks . . .'' See 49
U.S.C. 32902(k)(1)(B).\329\ For HD pickups and vans, the agencies also
set standards based on vehicle attributes, but used a work-based metric
as the attribute rather than the footprint attribute utilized in the
light-duty vehicle rulemaking. Work-based measures such as payload and
towing capability are key among the parameters that characterize
differences in the design of these vehicles, as well as differences in
how the vehicles will be utilized. Buyers consider these utility-based
attributes when purchasing a HD pickup or van. EPA and NHTSA therefore
finalized Phase 1 standards for HD pickups and vans based on a ``work
factor'' attribute that combines the vehicle's payload and towing
capabilities, with an added adjustment for 4-wheel drive vehicles. See
generally 76 FR 57161-57162.
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\327\ Light duty fuel economy standards are expressed as miles
per gallon (mpg), which is inverse to the HD fuel consumption
standards which are expressed as gallons per 100 miles.
\328\ EISA requires CAFE standards for passenger cars and light
trucks to be attribute-based; See 49 U.S.C. 32902(b)(3)(A).
\329\ The NAS 2010 report likewise recommended standards
recognizing the work function of HD vehicles. See 76 FR 57161.
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For Phase 1, the agencies adopted provisions such that each
manufacturer's fleet average standard is based on production volume-
weighting of target standards for all vehicles that in turn are based
on each vehicle's work factor. These target standards are taken from a
set of curves (mathematical functions). The Phase 1 curves are shown in
the figures below for reference and are described in detail in the
Phase 1 final rule.\330\ The agencies established separate curves for
diesel and gasoline HD pickups and vans. The agencies are proposing to
continue to use the work-based attribute and gradually declining
standards approach for the Phase 2 standards, as discussed in Section
VI.B. below. Note that this approach does not create an incentive to
reduce the capabilities of these vehicles because less capable vehicles
are required to have proportionally lower emissions and fuel
consumption targets.
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\330\ The Phase 1 Final Rule provides a full discussion of the
standard curves including the equations and coefficients. See 76 FR
57162-57165, September 15 2011. The standards are also provided in
the regulations at 40 CFR 1037.104 (which is proposed to be
redesignated as 40 CFR 86.1819-14).
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\331\ The NHTSA program provides voluntary standards for model
years 2014 and 2015. Target line functions for 2016-2018 are for the
second NHTSA alternative described in the Phase 1 preamble Section
II.C (d)(ii).
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[[Page 40333]]
[GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] TP13JY15.008
EPA phased in its CO2 standards gradually starting in
the 2014 model year, at 15-20-40-60-100 percent of the model year 2018
standards stringency level in model years 2014-2015-2016-2017-2018,
respectively. The phase-in takes the form of the set of target standard
curves shown above, with increasing stringency in each model year. The
final EPA Phase 1 standards for 2018 (including a separate standard to
control air conditioning system leakage) represent an average per-
vehicle reduction in GHGs of 17 percent for diesel vehicles and 12
percent for gasoline vehicles, compared to a common MY 2010 baseline.
EPA also finalized a compliance alternative
[[Page 40334]]
whereby manufacturers can phase in different percentages: 15-20-67-67-
67-100 percent of the model year 2019 standards stringency level in
model years 2014-2015-2016-2017-2018-2019, respectively. This
compliance alternative parallels and is equivalent to NHTSA's first
alternative described below.
NHTSA's Phase 1 program allows manufacturers to select one of two
fuel consumption standard alternatives for model years 2016 and later.
The first alternative defines individual gasoline vehicle and diesel
vehicle fuel consumption target curves that will not change for model
years 2016-2018, and are equivalent to EPA's 67-67-67-100 percent
target curves in model years 2016-2017-2018-2019, respectively. This
option is consistent with EISA requirements that NHTSA provide 4 years
lead-time and 3 years of stability for standards. See 49 U.S.C. 32902
(k)(3). The second alternative uses target curves that are equivalent
to EPA's 40-60-100 percent target curves in model years 2016-2017-2018,
respectively. Stringency for the alternatives in Phase 1 was selected
by the agencies to allow a manufacturer, through the use of the credit
carry-forward and carry-back provisions that the agencies also
finalized, to meet both NHTSA fuel efficiency and EPA GHG emission
standards using a single compliance strategy. If a manufacturer cannot
meet an applicable standard in a given model year, it may make up its
shortfall by over-complying in a subsequent year. NHTSA also allows
manufacturers to voluntarily opt into the NHTSA HD pickup and van
program in model years 2014 or 2015. For these model years, NHTSA's
fuel consumption target curves are equivalent to EPA's target curves.
The Phase 1 phase-in options are summarized in Table VI-1.
Table VI-1--Phase 1 Standards Phase-In Options
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2014 % 2015 % 2016 % 2017 % 2018 % 2019 %
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
EPA Primary Phase-in........ 15 20 40 60 100 100
EPA Compliance Option....... 15 20 67 67 67 100
NHTSA First Option.......... 0 0 67 67 67 100
NHTSA Second Option......... 0 0 40 60 100 100
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The form and stringency of the Phase 1 standards curves are based
on the performance of a set of vehicle, engine, and transmission
technologies expected (although not required) to be used to meet the
GHG emissions and fuel economy standards for model year 2012-2016
light-duty vehicles, with full consideration of how these technologies
are likely to perform in heavy-duty vehicle testing and use. All of
these technologies are already in use or have been announced for
upcoming model years in some light-duty vehicle models, and some are in
use in a portion of HD pickups and vans as well. The technologies
include:
advanced 8-speed automatic transmissions
aerodynamic improvements
electro-hydraulic power steering
engine friction reductions
improved accessories
low friction lubricants in powertrain components
lower rolling resistance tires
lightweighting
gasoline direct injection
diesel aftertreatment optimization
air conditioning system leakage reduction (for EPA program
only)
B. Proposed HD Pickup and Van Standards
As described in this section, NHTSA and EPA are proposing more
stringent MY 2027 and later Phase 2 standards that would be phased in
over model years 2021-2027. The agencies are proposing standards based
on a year-over-year increase in stringency of 2.5 percent over MYs
2021-2027 for a total increase in stringency for the Phase 2 program of
about 16 percent compared to the MY 2018 Phase 1 standard. Note that an
individual manufacturer's fleet-wide target may differ from this
stringency increase due to changes in vehicle sales mix and changes in
work factor. The agencies have analyzed several alternatives which are
discussed in this section below and in Section X. In particular, we are
requesting comment not only on the proposed standards but also
particularly on the Alternative 4 standard which would result in
approximately the same Phase 2 program stringency increase of about 16
percent compared to Phase 1 but would do so two years earlier, in MY
2025 rather than in MY 2027. The Alternative 4 phase in from 2021-2025
would be based on a year-over-year increase in stringency of 3.5
percent, as discussed below. While we believe the proposed preferred
alternative is feasible in the time frame of this rule, and that
Alternative 4 could potentially be feasible, the two phase-in schedules
differ in the required adoption rate of advanced technologies for
certain high volume vehicle segments. The agencies' analysis
essentially shows that the additional lead-time provided by the
preferred alternative would allow manufacturers to more fully utilize
lower cost technologies thereby reducing the adoption rate of more
advanced higher cost technologies such as strong hybrids. As discussed
in more detail in C.8 below, both of the considered phase-ins require
comparable penetration rates of several non-hybrid technologies with
some approaching 100 percent penetration. However, as discussed below,
the additional lead-time provided by Alternative 3 would allow
manufacturers more flexibility to fully utilize these non-hybrid
technologies to reduce the number of hybrids needed compared to
Alternative 4. Alternative 4 would additionally require significant
penetration of strong hybridization. We request comments, additional
information, data, and feedback to determine the extent to which such
adoption would be realistic within the MY 2025 timeframe.
When considering potential Phase 2 standards, the agencies
anticipate that the technologies listed above that were considered in
Phase 1 will continue to be available in the future if not already
applied under Phase 1 standards and that additional technologies will
also be available:
advanced engine improvements for friction reduction and low
friction lubricants
improved engine parasitics, including fuel pumps, oil pumps,
and coolant pumps
valvetrain variable lift and timing
cylinder deactivation
direct gasoline injection
cooled exhaust gas recirculation
turbo downsizing of gasoline engines
Diesel engine efficiency improvements
downsizing of diesel engines
8-speed automatic transmissions
electric power steering
[[Page 40335]]
high efficiency transmission gear boxes and driveline
further improvements in accessory loads
additional improvements in aerodynamics and tire rolling
resistance
low drag brakes
mass reduction
mild hybridization
strong hybridization
Sections VI.C. and D below and Section 2 of the Draft RIA provide a
detailed analysis of these and other potential technologies for Phase
2, including their feasibility, costs, and effectiveness and projected
application rates for reducing fuel consumption and CO2
emissions when utilized in HD pickups and vans. Sections VI.C and D and
Section X also discuss the selection of the proposed standards and the
alternatives considered.
In addition to EPA's CO2 emission standards and NHTSA's
fuel consumption standards for HD pickups and vans, EPA in Phase 1 also
finalized standards for two additional GHGs--N2O and
CH4, as well as standards for air conditioning-related HFC
emissions in the Phase 1 rule. EPA is proposing to continue these
standards in Phase 2. Also, consistent with CAA Section 202(a)(1), EPA
finalized Phase 1 standards that apply to HD pickups and vans in use
and EPA is proposing in-use standards for these vehicles in Phase 2.
All of the proposed standards for these HD pickups and vans are
discussed in more detail below. Program flexibilities and compliance
provisions related to the standards for HD pickups and vans are
discussed in Section VI.E.
A relatively small number of HD pickups and vans are sold by
vehicle manufacturers as incomplete vehicles, without the primary load-
carrying device or container attached. A sizeable subset of these
incomplete vehicles, often called cab-chassis vehicles, are sold by the
vehicle manufacturers in configurations with complete cabs and many of
the components that affect GHG emissions and fuel consumption identical
to those on complete pickup truck or van counterparts--including
engines, cabs, frames, transmissions, axles, and wheels. The Phase 1
program includes provisions that allow manufacturers to include these
incomplete vehicles as well as some Class 4 through 6 vehicles to be
regulated under the chassis-based HD pickup and van program (i.e.
subject to the standards for HD pickups and vans), rather than the
vocational vehicle program.\332\ The agencies are proposing to continue
allowing such incomplete vehicles the option of certifying under either
the heavy duty pickup and van standards or the standards for vocational
vehicles.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\332\ See 76 FR 57259-57260, September 15, 2011 and 78 FR 36374,
June 17, 2013.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Phase 1 also includes optional compliance paths for spark-ignition
engines identical to engines used in heavy-duty pickups and vans to
comply with 2b/3 standards. See 40 CFR 1037.150(m) and 49 CFR
535.5(a)(7). Manufacturers sell such engines as ``loose engines'' or
install these engines in incomplete vehicles that are not cab-complete
vehicles. The agencies are not proposing to retain the loose engine
provisions for Phase 2. These program elements are discussed above in
Section V.E. on vocational vehicles and XIV.A.2 on engines.
NHTSA and EPA request comment on all aspects of the proposed HD
pickup and van standards and program elements described below and the
alternatives discussed in Section X.
(1) Vehicle-Based Standards
For Phase 1, EPA and NHTSA chose to set vehicle-based standards
whereby the entire vehicle is chassis-tested. The agencies propose to
retain this approach for Phase 2. About 90 percent of Class 2b and 3
vehicles are pickup trucks, passenger vans, and work vans that are sold
by the original equipment manufacturers as complete vehicles, ready for
use on the road. In addition, most of these complete HD pickups and
vans are covered by CAA vehicle emissions standards for criteria
pollutants (i.e., they are chassis tested similar to light-duty),
expressed in grams per mile. This distinguishes this category from
other, larger heavy-duty vehicles that typically have engines covered
by CAA engine emission standards for criteria pollutants, expressed in
grams per brake horsepower-hour. As a result, Class 2b and 3 complete
vehicles share both substantive elements and a regulatory structure
much more in common with light-duty trucks than with the other heavy-
duty vehicles.
Three of these features in common are especially significant: (1)
Over 95 percent of the HD pickups and vans sold in the United States
are produced by Ford, General Motors, and Chrysler--three companies
with large light-duty vehicle and light-duty truck sales in the United
States; (2) these companies typically base their HD pickup and van
designs on higher sales volume light-duty truck platforms and
technologies, often incorporating new light-duty truck design features
into HD pickups and vans at their next design cycle, and (3) at this
time most complete HD pickups and vans are certified to vehicle-based
rather than engine-based EPA criteria pollutant and GHG standards.
There is also the potential for substantial GHG and fuel consumption
reductions from vehicle design improvements beyond engine changes (such
as through optimizing aerodynamics, weight, tires, and accessories),
and a single manufacturer is generally responsible for both engine and
vehicle design. All of these factors together suggest that it is still
appropriate and reasonable to base standards on performance of the
vehicle as a whole, rather than to establish separate engine and
vehicle GHG and fuel consumption standards, as is being done for the
other heavy-duty categories. The chassis-based standards approach for
complete vehicles was also consistent with NAS recommendations and
there was consensus in the public comments on the Phase 1 proposal
supporting this approach. For all of these reasons, the agencies
continue to believe that establishing chassis-based standards for Class
2b and 3 complete vehicles is appropriate for Phase 2.
(a) Work-Based Attributes
In developing the Phase 1 HD rulemaking, the agencies emphasized
creating a program structure that would achieve reductions in fuel
consumption and GHGs based on how vehicles are used and on the work
they perform in the real world. Work-based measures such as payload and
towing capability are key among the things that characterize
differences in the design of vehicles, as well as differences in how
the vehicles will be used. Vehicles in the 2b and 3 categories have a
wide range of payload and towing capacities. These work-based
differences in design and in-use operation are key factors in
evaluating technological improvements for reducing CO2
emissions and fuel consumption. Payload has a particularly important
impact on the test results for HD pickup and van emissions and fuel
consumption, because testing under existing EPA procedures for criteria
pollutants and the Phase 1 standards is conducted with the vehicle
loaded to half of its payload capacity (rather than to a flat 300 lb as
in the light-duty program), and the correlation between test weight and
fuel use is strong.
Towing, on the other hand, does not directly factor into test
weight as nothing is towed during the test. Hence, setting aside any
interdependence between towing capacity and payload,
[[Page 40336]]
only the higher curb weight caused by any heavier truck components
would play a role in affecting measured test results. However towing
capacity can be a significant factor to consider because HD pickup
truck towing capacities can be quite large, with a correspondingly
large effect on vehicle design.
We note too that, from a purchaser perspective, payload and towing
capability typically play a greater role than physical dimensions in
influencing purchaser decisions on which heavy-duty vehicle to buy. For
passenger vans, seating capacity is of course a major consideration,
but this correlates closely with payload weight.
For these reasons, EPA and NHTSA set Phase 1 standards for HD
pickups and vans based on a ``work factor'' attribute that combines
vehicle payload capacity and vehicle towing capacity, in lbs, with an
additional fixed adjustment for four-wheel drive (4wd) vehicles. This
adjustment accounts for the fact that 4wd, critical to enabling many
off-road heavy-duty work applications, adds roughly 500 lb to the
vehicle weight. The work factor is calculated as follows: 75 percent
maximum payload + 25 percent of maximum towing + 375 lbs if 4wd. Under
this approach, target GHG and fuel consumption standards are determined
for each vehicle with a unique work factor (analogous to a target for
each discrete vehicle footprint in the light-duty vehicle rules). These
targets will then be production weighted and summed to derive a
manufacturer's annual fleet average standard for its heavy-duty pickups
and vans. There was widespread support (and no opposition) for the work
factor-based approach to standards and fleet average approach to
compliance expressed in the comments we received on the Phase 1 rule.
The agencies are proposing to continue using the work factor attribute
for the Phase 2 standards and request comments on continuing this
approach.
Recognizing that towing is not reflected in the certification test
for these vehicles, however, the agencies are requesting comment with
respect to the treatment of towing in the work factor, especially for
diesel vehicles. More specifically, does using the existing work factor
equation create an inappropriate incentive for manufacturers to provide
more towing capability than needed for some operators, or a
disincentive for manufacturers to develop vehicles with intermediate
capability. In other words, does it encourage ``surplus'' towing
capability that has no value to vehicle owners and operators? We
recognize that some owners and operators do actually use their vehicles
to tow very heavy loads, and that some owners and operators who rarely
use their vehicles to tow heavy loads nonetheless prefer to own
vehicles capable of doing so. However, others may never tow such heavy
loads and purchase their vehicles for other reasons, such as cargo
capacity or off-road capability. Some of these less demanding (in terms
of towing) users may choose to purchase gasoline-powered vehicles that
are typically less expensive and have lower GCWR values, an indicator
of towing capability. However, others could prefer a diesel engine more
powerful than today's gasoline engines but less powerful than the
typical diesel engines found in 2b and 3 pickups today. In this
context, the agencies are considering (but have not yet evaluated) four
possible changes to the work factor and how it is applied. First, the
agencies are considering revising the work factor to weight payload by
80 percent and towing by 20 percent. Second, we are considering capping
the amount of towing that could be credited in the work factor. For
example, the work factors for all vehicles with towing ratings above
15,000 lbs could be calculated based on a towing rating of 15,000 lbs.
It is important to be clear that such a provision would not limit the
towing capability manufacturers could provide, but would only impact
the extent to which the work factor would ``reward'' towing capability.
Third, the agencies are considering changing the shape of the standard
curve for diesel vehicles to become more flat at very high work
factors. A flatter curve would mean that vehicles with very high work
factors would be more similar to vehicles with lower work factors than
is the case for the proposed curve. Thus, conceptually, flattening the
curves at the high end might be appropriate if we were to determine
that these high work factor vehicles actually operate in a manner more
like the vehicles with lower work factors. For example, when not towing
and when not hauling a full payload, heavy-duty pickup trucks with very
different work factors may actually be performing the same amount of
work. Finally, we are considering having different work factor formulas
for pickups and vans, and are also further considering whether any of
other changes should be applied differently to pickups than to vans. We
welcome comments on both the extent to which surplus towing may be an
issue and whether any of the potential changes discussed above would be
appropriate. Commenters supporting such changes are encouraged to also
address any potential accompanying changes. For example, if we reweight
the work factor, would other changes to the coefficients defining the
target curves be important to ensure that standards remain at the
maximum feasible levels. (Commenters should, however, recognize that
average requirements will, in any event, depend on fleet mix, and the
agencies expect to update estimates of future fleet mix before issuing
a final rule).
As noted in the Phase 1 rule, the attribute-based CO2
and fuel consumption standards are meant to be as consistent as
practicable from a stringency perspective. Vehicles across the entire
range of the HD pickup and van segment have their respective target
values for CO2 emissions and fuel consumption, and therefore
all HD pickups and vans will be affected by the standard. With this
attribute-based standards approach, EPA and NHTSA believe there should
be no significant effect on the relative distribution of vehicles with
differing capabilities in the fleet, which means that buyers should
still be able to purchase the vehicle that meets their needs.
(b) Standards
The agencies are proposing Phase 2 standards based on analysis
performed to determine the appropriate HD pickup and van Phase 2
standards and the most appropriate phase in of those standards. This
analysis, described below and in the Draft RIA, considered:
Projections of future U.S. sales for HD pickup and vans
the estimates of corresponding CO2 emissions and
fuel consumption for these vehicles
forecasts of manufacturers' product redesign schedules
the technology available in new MY 2014 HD pickups and vans to
specify preexisting technology content to be included in the analysis
fleet (the fleet of vehicles used as a starting point for analysis)
extending through MY 2030
the estimated effectiveness, cost, applicability, and
availability of technologies for HD pickup and vans
manufacturers' ability to use credit carry-forward
the levels of technology that are projected to be added to the
analysis fleet through MY 2030 considering improvements needed in order
to achieve compliance with the Phase 1 standards (thus defining the
reference fleet-i.e., under the No-Action Alternative--relative to
which to measure incremental impacts of Phase 2 standards), and
the levels of technology that are projected to be added to the
analysis fleet through MY2030 considering
[[Page 40337]]
further improvements needed in order to achieve compliance with
standards defining each regulatory (action) alternative for Phase 2.
Based on this analysis, EPA is proposing CO2 attribute-
based target standards shown in Figure VI-3 and Figure VI-4, and NHTSA
is proposing the equivalent attribute-based fuel consumption target
standards, also shown in Figure VI-3 and Figure VI-4, applicable in
model year 2021-2027. As shown in these tables, these standards would
be phased in year-by-year commencing in MY 2021. The agencies are not
proposing to change the standards for 2018-2020 and therefore the
standards would remain stable at the MY 2018 Phase 1 levels for MYs
2019 and 2020. EISA requires four years of lead-time and three years
stability for NHTSA standards and this period of lead-time and
stability for 2018-2020 is consistent with the EISA requirements. For
MYs 2021-2027, the agencies are proposing annual reductions in the
standards as the primary phase-in of the Phase 2 standards. The
proposed standards become 16 percent more stringent overall between MY
2020 and MY 2027. This approach to the Phase 2 standards as a whole can
be considered a phase-in or implementation schedule of the proposed MY
2027 standards (which, as noted, would apply thereafter unless and
until amended).
For EPA, Section 202(a) provides the Administrator with the
authority to establish standards, and to revise those standards ``from
time to time,'' thus providing the Administrator with considerable
discretion in deciding when to revise the Phase 1 MY 2018 standards.
EISA requires that NHTSA provide four full model years of regulatory
lead time and three full model years of regulatory stability for its
fuel economy standards. See 49 U.S.C. 32902(k)(3). Consistent with
these authorities, the agencies are proposing more stringent standards
beginning with MY 2021 that consider the level of technology we predict
can be applied to new vehicles in the 2021 MY. EPA believes the
proposed Phase 2 standards are consistent with CAA requirements
regarding lead-time, reasonable cost, and feasibility, and safety.
NHTSA believes the proposed Phase 2 standards are the maximum feasible
under EISA. Manufacturers in the HD pickup and van market segment have
relatively few vehicle lines and redesign cycles are typically longer
compared to light-duty vehicles. Also, the timing of vehicle redesigns
differs among manufacturers. To provide lead time needed to accommodate
these longer redesign cycles, the proposed Phase 2 GHG standards would
not reach their highest stringency until 2027. Although the proposed
standards would become more stringent over time between MYs 2021 and
2027, the agencies expect manufacturers will likely strive to make
improvements as part of planned redesigns, such that some model years
will likely involve significant advances, while other model years will
likely involve little change. The agencies also expect manufacturers to
use program flexibilities (e.g., credit carry-forward provisions and
averaging, banking, and trading provisions) to help balance compliance
costs over time (including by allowing needed changes to align with
redesign schedules). The agencies are proposing to provide stable
standards in MYs 2019-2020 in order to provide necessary lead time for
Phase 2. However, for some manufacturers, the transition to the Phase 2
standards may begin earlier (e.g., as soon as MY 2017) depending on
their vehicle redesign cycles. Although standards are not proposed to
change in MYs 2019-2020, manufacturers may introduce additional
technologies in order to carry forward corresponding improvements and
perhaps generate credits under the 5 year credit carry-forward
provisions established in Phase 1 and proposed to continue for Phase 2.
Sections VI.C. and D below provides additional discussion of vehicle
redesign cycles and the feasibility of the proposed standards.
While it is unlikely that there is a phase-in approach that would
equally fit with all manufacturers' unique product redesign schedules,
the agencies recognize that there are other ways the Phase 2 standards
could be phased in and request comments on other possible approaches.
One alternative approach would be to phase in the standards in a few
step changes, for example in MYs 2021, 2024 and 2027. Under this
example, if the step changes on the order of 5 percent, 10 percent, and
16 percent improvements from the MY 2020 baseline in MYs 2021, 2024 and
2027 respectively, the program would provide CO2 reductions
and fuel improvements roughly equivalent to the proposed approach.
Among the factors the agencies would consider in assessing a different
phase-in than that proposed would be impacts on lead time, feasibility,
cost, CO2 reductions and fuel consumption improvements. The
agencies request that commenters consider all of these factors in their
recommendations on phase-in.
As in Phase 1, the proposed Phase 2 standards would be met on a
production-weighted fleet average basis. No individual vehicle would
have to meet a particular fleet average standard. Nor would all
manufacturers have to meet numerically identical fleet average
requirement. Rather, each manufacturer would have its own unique fleet
average requirement based on the production- weighted average of the
heavy duty pickups and vans it chooses to produce. Moreover, averaging,
banking, and trading provisions, just alluded to and discussed further
below, would provide significant additional compliance flexibility in
implementing the standards. It is important to note, however, that
while the standards would differ numerically from manufacturer to
manufacturer, effective stringency should be essentially the same for
each manufacturer.
Also, as with the Phase 1 standards, the agencies are proposing
separate Phase 2 targets for gasoline-fueled (and any other Otto-cycle)
vehicles and diesel-fueled (and any other diesel-cycle) vehicles. The
targets would be used to determine the production-weighted fleet
average standards that apply to the combined diesel and gasoline fleet
of HD pickups and vans produced by a manufacturer in each model year.
The above-proposed stringency increase for Phase 2 applies equally to
the separate gasoline and diesel targets. The agencies considered
different rates of increase for the gasoline and diesel targets in
order to more equally balance compliance burdens across manufacturers
with varying gasoline/diesel fleet mixes. However, at least among major
HD pickup and van manufacturers, our analysis suggests limited
potential for such optimization, especially considering uncertainties
involved with manufacturers' future fleet mix. The agencies have thus
maintained the equivalent rates of stringency increase. The agencies
invite comment on this element.
[[Page 40338]]
[GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] TP13JY15.009
[[Page 40339]]
Described mathematically, EPA's and NHTSA's proposed target
standards are defined by the following formulas:
EPA CO2 Target (g/mile) = [a x WF] + b
NHTSA Fuel Consumption Target (gallons/100 miles) = [c x WF] + d
Where:
WF = Work Factor = [0.75 x (Payload Capacity + xwd)] + [0.25 x
Towing Capacity]
Payload Capacity = GVWR (lb) - Curb Weight (lb)
xwd = 500 lb if the vehicle is equipped with 4wd, otherwise equals 0
lb.
Towing Capacity = GCWR (lb) - GVWR (lb)
Coefficients a, b, c, and d are taken from Table VI-2.
Table VI-2--Proposed Phase 2 Coefficients for HD Pickup and Van Target Standards
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Model year a b c d
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Diesel Vehicles
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
2018-2020 \ a\...................... 0.0416 320 0.0004086 3.143
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2021................................ 0.0406 312 0.0003988 3.065
2022................................ 0.0395 304 0.0003880 2.986
2023................................ 0.0386 297 0.0003792 2.917
2024................................ 0.0376 289 0.0003694 2.839
2025................................ 0.0367 282 0.0003605 2.770
2026................................ 0.0357 275 0.0003507 2.701
2027 and later...................... 0.0348 268 0.0003418 2.633
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gasoline Vehicles
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
2018-2020 \ a\...................... 0.044 339 0.0004951 3.815
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2021................................ 0.0429 331 0.0004827 3.725
2022................................ 0.0418 322 0.0004703 3.623
2023................................ 0.0408 314 0.0004591 3.533
2024................................ 0.0398 306 0.0004478 3.443
2025................................ 0.0388 299 0.0004366 3.364
2026................................ 0.0378 291 0.0004253 3.274
2027 and later...................... 0.0369 284 0.0004152 3.196
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note:
\a\ Phase 1 primary phase-in coefficients. Alternative phase-in coefficients are different in MY2018 only.
As noted above, the standards are not proposed to change from the
final Phase 1 standards for MYs 2018-2020. The MY 2018-2020 standards
are shown in the Figures and tables above for reference.
NHTSA and EPA have also analyzed regulatory alternatives to the
proposed standards, as discussed in Sections VI.C and D and Section X.
below. The agencies request comments on all of the alternatives
analyzed for the proposal, but request comments on Alternative 4 in
particular. The agencies believe Alternative 4 has the potential to be
the maximum feasible alternative; however, based on the evidence
currently before us, EPA and NHTSA have outstanding questions regarding
relative risks and benefits of Alternative 4 due to the timeframe
envisioned by that alternative. Alternative 4 would provide less lead
time for the complete phase-in of the proposed Phase 2 standards based
on an annual improvement of 3.5 percent per year in MYs 2021-2025
compared to the proposed Alternative 3 per year improvement of 2.5
percent in MYs 2021-2027. The CO2 and fuel consumption
attribute-based target standards for the Alternative 4 phase-in are
shown in Figure VI-5 and Figure VI-6 below. As the target curves for
Alternative 4 show in comparison to the target curves shown above for
the proposed Alternative 3, the final Phase 2 standards would result in
essentially the same level of stringency under either alternative.
However, the Phase 2 standards would be fully implemented two years
earlier, in MY 2025, under Alternative 4. The agencies are seriously
considering whether this Alternative 4 (i.e., the proposed standards
but with two years less lead-time) would be realistic and feasible, as
described in Sections VI.C and D, Section X, and in the Draft RIA
Chapter 11. Alternative 4 is predicated on shortened lead time that
would result in accelerated and in some cases higher adoption rates of
the same technologies on which the proposed Alternative 3 is
predicated. The agencies request comments, data, and information that
would help inform determination of the maximum feasible (for NHTSA) and
appropriate (for EPA) stringency for HD pickups and vans and are
particularly interested in information and data related to the expected
adoption rates of different emerging technologies, such as mild and
strong hybridization.
[[Page 40340]]
[GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] TP13JY15.010
As with Phase 1 standards, to calculate a manufacturer's HD pickup
and van fleet average standard, the agencies are proposing that
separate target curves be used for gasoline and diesel vehicles. The
agencies' proposed
[[Page 40341]]
standards result in approximately 16 percent reductions in
CO2 and fuel consumption for both diesel and gasoline
vehicles relative to the MY 2018 Phase 1 standards for HD pickup trucks
and vans. These target reductions are based on the agencies' assessment
of the feasibility of incorporating technologies (which differ for
gasoline and diesel powertrains) in the 2021-2027 model years, and on
the differences in relative efficiency in the current gasoline and
diesel vehicles.
The agencies generally prefer to set standards that do not
distinguish between fuel types where technological or market-based
reasons do not strongly argue otherwise. However, as with Phase 1, we
continue to believe that fundamental differences between spark ignition
and compression ignition engines warrant unique fuel standards, which
is also important in ensuring that our program maintains product
choices available to vehicle buyers. In fact, gasoline and diesel fuel
behave so differently in the internal combustion engine that they have
historically required unique test procedures, emission control
technologies and emission standards. These technological differences
between gasoline and diesel engines for GHGs and fuel consumption exist
presently and will continue to exist after Phase 1 and through Phase 2
until advanced research evolves the gasoline fueled engine to diesel-
like efficiencies. This will require significant technological
breakthroughs currently in early stages of research such as homogeneous
charge compression ignition (HCCI) or similar concepts. Because these
technologies are still in the early research stages, we believe the
proposed separate fuel type standards are appropriate in the timeframe
of this rule to protect for the availability of both gasoline and
diesel engines and will result in roughly equivalent redesign burdens
for engines of both fuel types as evidenced by feasibility and cost
analysis in RIA Chapter 10. The agencies request comment on the level
of stringency of the proposed standards, the continued separate targets
for gasoline and diesel HD pickups and vans, and the continued use of
the work-based attribute approach described above.
The proposed NHTSA fuel consumption target curves and EPA GHG
target curves are equivalent. The agencies established the target
curves using the direct relationship between fuel consumption and
CO2 using conversion factors of 8,887 g CO2/
gallon for gasoline and 10,180 g CO2/gallon for diesel fuel.
It is expected that measured performance values for CO2
will generally be equivalent to fuel consumption. However, Phase 1
established a provision that EPA is not proposing to change for Phase 2
that allows manufacturers, if they choose, to use CO2
credits to help demonstrate compliance with N2O and
CH4 emissions standards, by expressing any N2O
and CH4 under compliance in terms of their CO2-
equivalent and applying CO2 credits as needed. For test
families that do not use this compliance alternative, the measured
performance values for CO2 and fuel consumption will be
equivalent because the same test runs and measurement data will be used
to determine both values, and calculated fuel consumption will be based
on the same conversion factors that are used to establish the
relationship between the CO2 and fuel consumption target
curves (8,887 g CO2/gallon for gasoline and 10,180 g
CO2/gallon for diesel fuel). For manufacturers that choose
to use EPA provision for CO2 credit use in demonstrating
N2O and CH4 compliance, compliance with the
CO2 standard will not be directly equivalent to compliance
with the NHTSA fuel consumption standard.
(2) What are the HD Pickup and Van Test Cycles and Procedures?
The Phase 1 program established testing procedures for HD pickups
and vans and NHTSA and EPA are not proposing to change these testing
protocols. The vehicles would continue to be tested using the same
heavy-duty chassis test procedures currently used by EPA for measuring
criteria pollutant emissions from these vehicles, but with the addition
of the highway fuel economy test cycle (HFET). These test procedures
are used by manufacturers for certification and emissions compliance
demonstrations and by the agencies for compliance verification and
enforcement. Although the highway cycle driving pattern is identical to
that of the light-duty test, other test parameters for running the
HFET, such as test vehicle loaded weight, are identical to those used
in running the current EPA Federal Test Procedure for complete heavy-
duty vehicles. Please see Section II.C (2) of the Phase 1 preamble (76
FR 57166) for a discussion of how HD pickups and vans would be tested.
One item that the agencies are considering to change is how
vehicles are categorized into test weight bins. Under the current test
procedures, vehicles are tested at 500 lb increments of inertial weight
classes when testing at or above 5500 lbs test weight. For example, all
vehicles having a calculated test weight basis of 11,251 to 11,750 lbs
would be tested 11,500 lbs (i.e., the midpoint of the range). However,
for some vehicles, the existence of these bins and the large intervals
between bins may reduce or eliminate the incentive for mass reduction
for some vehicles, as a vehicle may require significant mass reduction
before it could switch from one test weight bin to the next lower bin.
For other vehicles, these bins may unduly reward relatively small
reductions of vehicle mass, as a vehicle's mass may be only slightly
greater than that needed to be assigned a 500-pound lighter inertia
weight class. For example, for a vehicle with a calculated test weight
basis of 11,700 lbs, a manufacturer would receive no regulatory benefit
for reducing the vehicle weight by 400 lbs, because the vehicle would
stay within the same weight bracket. The agencies do recognize that the
test weight bins allow for some reduction in testing burden as many
vehicles can be grouped together under a single test. For Phase 2, the
agencies seek comment on whether the test weight bins should be changed
in order to allow for more realistic testing of HD pickups and vans and
better capture of the improvements due to mass reduction. Some example
changes could include reducing the five hundred pound interval between
bins to smaller intervals similar to those allowed for vehicles tested
below 5,500 lbs. test weight, or allowing any test weight value that is
not fixed to a particular test weight bin. The latter scenario would
still allow some grouping of vehicles to reduce test burden, and the
agencies also seek comment on how vehicles would be grouped and how the
test weight of this group of vehicles should be selected.
We further seek comment as to whether there may be a more
appropriate method such as allowing analytical adjustment of the
CO2 levels and fuel consumption within a vehicle weight
class to more precisely account for the individual vehicle models
performance. For example, could an equation like the one specified in
40 CFR 1037.104(g) for analytically adjusting CO2 emissions
be used (note that this is proposed to be redesignated as 40 CFR
86.1819-14(g)). The agencies are specifically considering an approach
in which vehicles are tested in the same way with the same test
weights, but manufacturers have the option to either accept the
emission results as provided under the current regulations, or choose
to adjust the emissions based on the actual test weight basis (actual
curb plus
[[Page 40342]]
half payload) instead of the equivalent test weight for the 500 test
weight interval. Should the agencies finalize this as an option,
manufacturers choosing to adjust their emissions would be required to
do so for all of their vehicles, and not just for those with test
weights below the midpoint of the range.
(3) Fleet Average Standards
NHTSA and EPA are proposing to retain the fleet average standards
approach finalized in the Phase 1 rule and structurally similar to
light-duty Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) and GHG standards. The
fleet average standard for a manufacturer is a production-weighted
average of the work factor-based targets assigned to unique vehicle
configurations within each model type produced by the manufacturer in a
model year. Each manufacturer would continue to have an average GHG
requirement and an average fuel consumption requirement unique to its
new HD pickup and van fleet in each model year, depending on the
characteristics (payload, towing, and drive type) of the vehicle models
produced by that manufacturer, and on the U.S.-directed production
volume of each of those models in that model year. Vehicle models with
larger payload/towing capacities and/or four-wheel drive have
individual targets at numerically higher CO2 and fuel
consumption levels than less capable vehicles, as discussed in Section
VI.B(1).
The fleet average standard with which the manufacturer must comply
would continue to be based on its final production figures for the
model year, and thus a final assessment of compliance would occur after
production for the model year ends. The assessment of compliance also
must consider the manufacturer's use of carry-forward and carry-back
credit provisions included in the averaging, banking, and trading
program. Because compliance with the fleet average standards depends on
actual test group production volumes, it is not possible to determine
compliance at the time the manufacturer applies for and receives an
(initial) EPA certificate of conformity for a test group. Instead, at
certification the manufacturer would demonstrate a level of performance
for vehicles in the test group, and make a good faith demonstration
that its fleet, regrouped by unique vehicle configurations within each
model type, is expected to comply with its fleet average standard when
the model year is over. EPA will issue a certificate for the vehicles
covered by the test group based on this demonstration, and will include
a condition in the certificate that if the manufacturer does not comply
with the fleet average, then production vehicles from that test group
will be treated as not covered by the certificate to the extent needed
to bring the manufacturer's fleet average into compliance. As in the
parallel program for light-duty vehicles, additional ``model type''
testing will be conducted by the manufacturer over the course of the
model year to supplement the initial test group data. The emissions and
fuel consumption levels of the test vehicles will be used to calculate
the production-weighted fleet averages for the manufacturer, after
application of the appropriate deterioration factor to each result to
obtain a full useful life value. Please see Section II.C (3)(a) of the
Phase 1 preamble (76 FR 57167) for further discussion of the fleet
average approach for HD pickups and vans.
(4) In-Use Standards
Section 202(a)(1) of the CAA specifies that EPA set emissions
standards that are applicable for the useful life of the vehicle. EPA
is proposing to continue the in-use standards approach for individual
vehicles that EPA finalized for the Phase 1 program. NHTSA did not
adopt Phase 1 in-use standards and is not proposing in-use standards
for Phase 2. For the EPA program, compliance with the in-use standard
for individual vehicles and vehicle models does not impact compliance
with the fleet average standard, which will be based on the production-
weighted average of the new vehicles. Vehicles that fail to meet their
in-use emission standards would be subject to recall to correct the
noncompliance. NHTSA also proposes to adopt EPA's useful life
requirements to ensure manufacturers consider in the design process the
need for fuel efficiency standards to apply for the same duration and
mileage as EPA standards. NHTSA seeks comment on the appropriateness of
seeking civil penalties for failure to comply with its fuel efficiency
standards in these instances. NHTSA would limit such penalties to
situations in which it determined that the vehicle or engine
manufacturer failed to comply with the standards.
As with Phase 1, EPA proposes that the in-use Phase 2 standards for
HD pickups and vans be established by adding an adjustment factor to
the full useful life emissions used to calculate the GHG fleet average.
EPA proposes that each model's in-use CO2 standard be the
model-specific level used in calculating the fleet average, plus 10
percent. No adverse comments were received on this provision during the
Phase 1 rulemaking. Please see Section II.C (3)(b) of the Phase 1
preamble (76 FR 57167) for further discussion of in-use standards for
HD pickups and vans.
For Phase 1, EPA aligned the useful life for GHG emissions with the
useful life that was in place for criteria pollutants: 11 years or
120,000 miles, whichever occurs first (40 CFR 86.1805-04(a)). Since the
Phase 1 rule was finalized, EPA updated the useful life for criteria
pollutants as part of the Tier 3 rulemaking.\333\ The new useful life
implemented for Tier 3 is 150,000 miles or 15 years, whichever occurs
first. EPA and NHTSA propose that the useful life for GHG emissions and
fuel consumption also be updated to 150,000 miles/15 years starting in
MY 2021 when the Phase 2 standards begin so that the useful life
remains aligned for GHG and criteria pollutant standards long term.
With the relatively flat deterioration generally associated with
CO2 and fuel consumption and the proposed in-use standard
adjustment factor discussed above, the agencies do not believe the
proposed change in useful life would significantly affect the
feasibility of the proposed Phase 2 standards.\334\ The agencies
requests comments on the proposed change to useful life.
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\333\ 79 FR 23492, April 28, 2014 and 40 CFR 86.1805-17.
\334\ As discussed below in Section VI.D.1., EPA and NHTSA are
proposing an adjustment factor of 1.25 for banked credits that are
carried over from Phase 1 to Phase 2. The useful life is factored
into the credits calculation and without the adjustment factor the
change in useful life would effectively result in a discount of
those carry-over credits.
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(5) Other GHG Standards for HD Pickups and Vans
This section addresses greenhouse gases other than CO2.
Note that since these are greenhouse gases not directly related to fuel
consumption, NHTSA does not have equivalent standards.
(a) Nitrous Oxide (N2O) and Methane (CH4)
In the Phase 1 rule, EPA established emissions standards for HD
pickups and vans for both nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane
(CH4). Similar to the CO2 standard approach, the
N2O and CH4 emission levels of a vehicle are
based on a composite of the light-duty FTP and HFET cycles with the
same 55 percent city weighting and 45 percent highway weighting. The
N2O and CH4 standards were both set by EPA at
0.05 g/mile. Unlike the CO2 standards, averaging between
vehicles is not allowed. The standards are designed to prevent
increases in N2O and CH4 emissions
[[Page 40343]]
from current levels, i.e., a no-backsliding standard. EPA is not
proposing to change the N2O or CH4 standards or
related provisions established in the Phase 1 rule. Please see Phase 1
preamble Section II.E. (76 FR 57188-57193) for additional discussion of
N2O and CH4 emissions and standards.
Across both current gasoline- and diesel-fueled heavy-duty vehicle
designs, emissions of CH4 and N2O are relatively
low and the intent of the cap standards is to ensure that future
vehicle technologies or fuels do not result in an increase in these
emissions. Given the global warning potential (GWP) of CH4,
the 0.05 g/mile cap standard is equivalent to about 1.25 g/mile
CO2, which is much less than 1 percent of the overall GHG
emissions of most HD pickups and vans.\335\ The effectiveness of
oxidation of CH4 using a three-way or diesel oxidation
catalyst is limited by the activation energy, which tends to be higher
where the number of carbon atoms in the hydrocarbon molecule is low and
thus CH4 is very stable. At this time we are not aware of
any technologies beyond the already present catalyst systems which are
highly effective at oxidizing most hydrocarbon species for gasoline and
diesel fueled engines that would further lower the activation energy
across the catalyst or increase the energy content of the exhaust
(without further increasing fuel consumption and CO2
emissions) to further reduce CH4 emissions at the tailpipe.
We note that we are not aware of any new technologies that would allow
us to adopt more stringent CH4 and N2O standards
at this time. The CH4 standard remains an important backstop
to prevent future increases in CH4 emissions.
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\335\ N2O has a GWP of 298 and CH4 has a
GWP of 25 according to the IPCC AR4.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
N2O is emitted from gasoline and diesel vehicles mainly
during specific catalyst temperature conditions conducive to
N2O formation. The 0.05 g/mile standard, which translates to
a CO2-equivalent value of 14.9 g/mile, ensures that systems
are not designed in a way that emphasizes efficient NOX
control while allowing the formation of significant quantities of
N2O. The Phase 1 N2O standard of 0.05 g/mile for
pickups and vans was finalized knowing that it is more stringent than
the Phase 1 N2O engine standard of 0.10 g/hp-hr, currently
being revaluated as discussed in Section II.D.3. EPA continues to
believe that the 0.05 g/mile standard provides the necessary assurance
that N2O will not significantly increase, given the mix of
gasoline and diesel fueled engines in this market and the upcoming
implementation of the light-duty and heavy-duty (up to 14,000 lbs.
GVWR) Tier 3 NOX standards. EPA knows of no technologies
that would lower N2O emissions beyond the control provided
by the precise emissions control systems already being implemented to
meet EPA's criteria pollutant standards. Therefore, EPA continues to
believe the 0.05 g/mile N2O standard remains appropriate.
If a manufacturer is unable to meet the N2O or
CH4 cap standards, the EPA program allows the manufacturer
to comply using CO2 credits. In other words, a manufacturer
may offset any N2O or CH4 emissions above the
standard by taking steps to further reduce CO2. A
manufacturer choosing this option would use GWPs to convert its
measured N2O and CH4 test results that are in
excess of the applicable standards into CO2eq to determine
the amount of CO2 credits required. For example, a
manufacturer would use 25 Mg of positive CO2 credits to
offset 1 Mg of negative CH4 credits or use 298 Mg of
positive CO2 credits to offset 1 Mg of negative
N2O credits.\336\ By using the GWP of N2O and
CH4, the approach recognizes the inter-correlation of these
compounds in impacting global warming and is environmentally neutral
for demonstrating compliance with the individual emissions caps.
Because fuel conversion manufacturers certifying under 40 CFR part 85,
subpart F, do not participate in ABT programs, EPA included in the
Phase 1 rule a compliance option for fuel conversion manufacturers to
comply with the N2O and CH4 standards that is
similar to the credit program described above. See 76 FR 57192. The
compliance option will allow conversion manufacturers, on an individual
engine family basis, to convert CO2 over compliance into
CO2 equivalents (CO2 eq) of N2O and/or
CH4 that can be subtracted from the CH4 and
N2O measured values to demonstrate compliance with
CH4 and/or N2O standards. EPA did not include
similar provisions allowing over compliance with the N2O or
CH4 standards to serve as a means to generate CO2
credits because the CH4 and N2O standards are cap
standards representing levels that all but the worst vehicles should
already be well below. Allowing credit generation against such cap
standard would provide a windfall credit without any true GHG
reduction. EPA proposes to maintain these provisions for Phase 2 as
they provide important flexibility without reducing the overall GHG
benefits of the program.
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\336\ N2O has a GWP of 298 and CH4 has a
GWP of 25 according to the IPCC AR4.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
EPA is requesting comment on updating GWPs used in the calculation
of credits discussed above. Please see the full discussion of this
issue and request for comments provided in Sections II.D and XI.D.
(b) Air Conditioning Related Emissions
Air conditioning systems contribute to GHG emissions in two ways--
direct emissions through refrigerant leakage and indirect exhaust
emissions due to the extra load on the vehicle's engine to provide
power to the air conditioning system. HFC refrigerants, which are
powerful GHG pollutants, can leak from the A/C system. This includes
the direct leakage of refrigerant as well as the subsequent leakage
associated with maintenance and servicing, and with disposal at the end
of the vehicle's life.\337\ Currently, the most commonly used
refrigerant in automotive applications--R134a, has a high GWP. Due to
the high GWP of R134a, a small leakage of the refrigerant has a much
greater global warming impact than a similar amount of emissions of
CO2 or other mobile source GHGs.
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\337\ The U.S. EPA has reclamation requirements for refrigerants
in place under Title VI of the Clean Air Act.
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In Phase 1, EPA finalized low leakage requirement for all air
conditioning systems installed in 2014 model year and later HDVs, with
the exception of Class 2b-8 vocational vehicles. As discussed in
Section V.B.3, EPA is proposing to extend leakage standards to
vocational vehicles for Phase 2. For air conditioning systems with a
refrigerant capacity greater than 733 grams, EPA finalized a leakage
standard which is a ``percent refrigerant leakage per year'' to assure
that high-quality, low-leakage components are used in each air
conditioning system design. EPA finalized a standard of 1.50 percent
leakage per year for heavy-duty pickup trucks and vans and Class 7 and
8 tractors. See Section II.E.5. of Phase 1 preamble (76 FR 57194-57195)
for further discussion of the A/C leakage standard.
In addition to use of leak-tight components in air conditioning
system design, manufacturers could also decrease the global warming
impact of leakage emissions by adopting systems that use alternative,
lower global warming potential (GWP) refrigerants, to replace the
refrigerant most commonly used today, HFC-134a (R-134a). The potential
use of alternative refrigerants in HD vehicles and EPA's proposed
revisions to 40 CFR 1037.115 so that use
[[Page 40344]]
of certain lower GWP refrigerants would cause an air conditioning
system in a HD vehicle to be deemed to comply with the low leakage
standard is discussed in Section I.F. above.
In addition to direct emissions from refrigerant leakage, air
conditioning systems also create indirect exhaust emissions due to the
extra load on the vehicle's engine to provide power to the air
conditioning system. These indirect emissions are in the form of the
additional CO2 emitted from the engine when A/C is being
used due to the added loads. Unlike direct emissions which tend to be a
set annual leak rate not directly tied to usage, indirect emissions are
fully a function of A/C usage. These indirect CO2 emissions
are associated with air conditioner efficiency, since (as just noted)
air conditioners create load on the engine. See 74 FR 49529. In Phase
1, the agencies did not set air conditioning efficiency standards for
vocational vehicles, combination tractors, or heavy-duty pickup trucks
and vans. The CO2 emissions due to air conditioning systems
in these heavy-duty vehicles were estimated to be minimal compared to
their overall emissions of CO2. This continues to be the
case. For this reason, EPA is not proposing to establish standards for
A/C efficiency for Phase 2.
NHTSA and EPA request comments on all aspects of the proposed HD
pickup and van standards and program elements described in this
section.
C. Feasibility of Pickup and Van Standards
EPCA and EISA require NHTSA to ``implement a commercial medium- and
heavy-duty on-highway vehicle and work truck fuel efficiency
improvement program designed to achieve the maximum feasible
improvement'' and to establish corresponding fuel consumption standards
``that are appropriate, cost-effective, and technologically feasible.''
\338\ Section 202(a)(1) and (2) of the Clean Air Act require EPA to
establish standards for emissions of pollutants from new motor vehicles
and engines which emissions cause or contribute to air pollution which
may reasonably be anticipated to endanger public health or welfare,
which include GHGs. See section I.E. above. Under section 202(a)(1) and
(2), EPA considers such issues as technology effectiveness, its cost
(both per vehicle, per manufacturer, and per consumer), the lead time
necessary to implement the technology, and based on this the
feasibility and practicability of potential standards; the impacts of
potential standards on emissions reductions of both GHGs and non-GHG
emissions; the impacts of standards on oil conservation and energy
security; the impacts of standards on fuel savings by customers; the
impacts of standards on the truck industry; other energy impacts; as
well as other relevant factors such as impacts on safety.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\338\ 49 U.S.C. 32902(k)(2).
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As part of the feasibility analysis of potential standards for HD
pickups and vans, the agencies have applied DOT's CAFE Compliance and
Effects Modeling System (sometimes referred to as ``the CAFE model'' or
``the Volpe model''), which DOT's Volpe National Transportation Systems
Center (Volpe Center) developed, maintains, and applies to support
NHTSA CAFE analyses and rulemakings.\339\ The agencies used this model
to determine the range of stringencies that might be achievable through
the use of technology that is projected to be available in the Phase 2
time frame. From these runs, the agencies identified the stringency
level that would be technology-forcing (i.e. reflect levels of
stringency based on performance of merging as well as currently
available control technologies), but leave manufacturers the
flexibility to adopt varying technology paths for compliance and allow
adequate lead time to develop, test, and deploy the range of
technologies.
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\339\ The CAFE model has been under ongoing development,
application, review, and refinement since 2002. In five rulemakings
subject to public review and comment, DOT has used the model to
estimate the potential impacts of new CAFE standards. The model has
also been subject to formal review outside the rulemaking process,
and DOT anticipates comments on the model in mid-2015 as part of a
broader report under development by the National Academy of Sciences
(NAS). The model, underlying source code, inputs, and outputs are
available at NHTSA's Web site, and some outside organizations are
making use of the model. The agency anticipates that stakeholders
will have comments on recent model changes made to accommodate
standards for HD pickups and vans.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
As noted in Section I and discussed further below, the analysis
considers two reference cases for HD pickups and vans, a flat baseline
(designated Alternative 1a) where no improvements are modeled beyond
those needed to meet Phase 1 standards and a dynamic baseline
(designated Alternative 1b) where certain cost-effective technologies
(i.e., those that payback within a 6 month period) are assumed to be
applied by manufacturers to improve fuel efficiency beyond the Phase 1
requirements in the absence of new Phase 2 standards. NHTSA considered
its primary analysis to be based on the more dynamic baseline whereas
EPA considered both reference cases. As shown below and in Sections VII
through X, using the two different reference cases has little impact on
the results of the analysis and would not lead to a different
conclusion regarding the appropriateness of the proposed standards. As
such, the use of different reference cases corroborates the results of
the overall analysis.
The proposed phase-in schedule of reduction of 2.5 percent per year
in fuel consumption and CO2 levels relative to the 2018 MY
Phase 1 standard level, starting in MY 2021 and extending through MY
2027, was chosen to strike a balance between meaningful reductions in
the early years and providing manufacturers with needed lead time via a
gradually accelerating ramp-up of technology penetration. By expressing
the phase-in in terms of increasing year to year stringency for each
manufacturer, while also providing for credit generation and use
(including averaging, carry-forward, and carry-back), we believe our
proposed program would afford manufacturers substantial flexibility to
satisfy the proposed phase-in through a variety of pathways: the
gradual application of technologies across the fleet, greater
application levels on only a portion of the fleet, and a sufficiently
broad set of available technologies to account for the variety of
current technology deployment among manufacturers and the lowest-cost
compliance paths available to each.
We decided to propose a phased implementation schedule that would
be appropriate to accommodate manufacturers' redesign workload and
product schedules, especially in light of this sector's limited product
offerings \340\ and long product cycles. We did not estimate the cost
of implementing the proposed standards immediately in 2021 without a
phase-in, but we qualitatively assessed it to be somewhat higher than
the cost of the phase-in we are proposing, due to the workload and
product cycle disruptions it could cause, and also due to
manufacturers' resulting need to develop some of these technologies for
heavy-duty applications sooner than or simultaneously with light-duty
development efforts. See 75 FR 25451 (May 7, 2010) (documenting types
of drastic cost increases associated with trying to accelerate redesign
schedules and concluding that ``[w]e believe that it would be an
inefficient use of societal resources to incur such costs when they can
be obtained much more cost effectively just one year later''). On the
other hand, waiting until 2027 before applying any new standards could
miss
[[Page 40345]]
the opportunity to achieve meaningful and cost-effective early
reductions not requiring a major product redesign.
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\340\ Manufacturers generally have only one pickup platform and
one van platform in this segment.
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The agencies believe that Alternative 4 has the potential to be the
maximum feasible alternative, however, the agencies are uncertain that
the potential technologies and market penetration rates included in
Alternative 4 are currently technologically feasible. Alternative 4
would ultimately reach the same levels of stringency as Alternative 3,
but would do so with less lead time. This could require the application
of a somewhat different (and possibly broader) application of the
projected technologies depending on product redesign cycles. We expect,
in fact, that some of these technologies may well prove feasible and
cost-effective in this timeframe, and may even become technologies of
choice for individual manufacturers.
Additionally, Alternative 3 provides two more years of phase-in
than Alternative 4, which eases compliance burden by having more
vehicle redesigns and lower stringency during the phase-in period.
Historically, the vehicles in this segment are typically only
redesigned every 6-10 years, so many of the vehicles may not even be
redesigned during the timeframe of the stringency increase. In this
case, a manufacturer must either make up for any vehicle that falls
short of its target through some combination of early compliance,
overcompliance, credit carry-forward and carry-back, and redesigning
vehicles more frequently. Each of these will increase technology costs
to the manufacturers and vehicle purchasers, and early redesigns will
significantly increases capital costs and product development costs.
Also, the longer phase-in time for Alternative 3 means that any
manufacturer will have a slightly lower target to meet from 2021-2026
than for the shorter phase-in of Alternative 4, though by 2027 the
manufacturers will have the same target in either alternative.
Alternative 4 is projected to be met using a significantly higher
degree of hybridization including the use of more strong hybrids,
compared to the proposed preferred Alternative 3. In order to comply
with a 3.5 percent per year increase in stringency over MYs 2021-2025,
manufacturers would need to adopt more technology compared to the 2.5
percent per year increase in stringency over MYs 2021-2027. The two
years of additional lead time provided by Alternative 3 to achieve the
proposed final standards reduces the potential number of strong hybrids
projected to be used by allowing for other more cost effective
technologies to be more fully utilized across the fleet. Alternative 4
is also projected to result in higher costs and risks than the proposed
Alternative 3 due to the projected higher technology adoption rates
with the additional emission reductions and fuel savings predominately
occurring only during the program phase-in period. The agencies'
analysis is discussed in detail below.
In some cases, the model selects strong hybrids as a more cost
effective technology over certain other technologies including stop-
start and mild hybrid. In other words, strong hybrids are not a
technology of last resort in the analysis. The agencies believe it is
technologically feasible to apply hybridization to HD pickups and vans
in the lead time provided. However, strong hybrids present challenges
in this market segment compared to light-duty where there are several
strong hybrids already available. The agencies do not believe that at
this stage there is enough information about the viability of strong
hybrid technology in this vehicle segment to assume that they can be a
part of large-volume deployment strategies for regulated manufacturers.
For example, we believe that hybrid electric technology could provide
significant GHG and fuel consumption benefits, but we recognize that
there is uncertainty at this time over the real world effectiveness of
these systems in HD pickups and vans, and over customer acceptance of
the technology for vehicles with high GCWR towing large loads. Further,
the development, design, and tooling effort needed to apply this
technology to a vehicle model is quite large, and might not be cost-
effective due to the small sales volumes relative to the light-duty
sector. Additionally, the analysis does not project that engines would
be down-sized in conjunction with hybridization for HD pickups and vans
due to the importance pickup trucks buyers place on engine horsepower
and torque necessary to meet towing objectives. Therefore, with no
change projected for engine size, the strong hybrid costs do not
include costs for engine changes. In light-duty, the use of smaller
engines facilitates much of a hybrid's benefit.
Due to these considerations, the agencies have conducted a
sensitivity analysis that is based on the use of no strong hybrids. The
results of the analysis are also discussed below. The analysis
indicates that there would be a technology pathway that would allow
manufacturers to meet both the proposed preferred Alternatives 3 and
Alternative 4 without the use of strong hybrids. However, the analysis
indicates that costs would be higher and the cost effectiveness would
be lower under the no strong hybrid approach, especially for
Alternative 4, which provides less lead time to manufacturers.
We also considered proposing less stringent standards under which
manufacturers could comply by deploying a more limited set of
technologies. However, our assessment concluded with a high degree of
confidence that the technologies on which the proposed standards are
premised would be available at reasonable cost in the 2021-2027
timeframe, and that the phase-in and other flexibility provisions allow
for their application in a very cost-effective manner, as discussed in
this section below.
More difficult to characterize is the degree to which more or less
stringent standards might be appropriate because of under- or over-
estimating the costs or effectiveness of the technologies whose
performance is the basis of the proposed standards. For the most part,
these technologies have not yet been applied to HD pickups and vans,
even on a limited basis. We are therefore relying to some degree on
engineering judgment in predicting their effectiveness. Even so, we
believe that we have applied this judgment using the best information
available, primarily from a NHTSA contracted study at SwRI \341\ and
our recent rulemaking on light-duty vehicle GHGs and fuel economy, and
have generated a robust set of effectiveness values. Chapter 10 of the
draft RIA provides a detailed description of the CAFE Model and the
analysis performed for the proposal.
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\341\ Reinhart, T.E. (June 2015). Commercial Medium- and Heavy-
Duty Truck Fuel Efficiency Technology Study--Report #1. (Report No.
DOT HS 812 146). Washington, DC: National Highway Traffic Safety
Administration.
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(1) Regulatory Alternatives Considered by the Agencies
As discussed above, the agencies are proposing standards defined by
fuel consumption and GHG targets that continue through model year 2020
unchanged from model year 2018, and then increase in stringency at an
annual rate of 2.5 percent through model year 2027. In addition to this
regulatory alternative, the agencies also considered a no-action
alternative under which standards remain unchanged after model year
2018, as well as three other alternatives, defined by annual stringency
increases of 2.0 percent, 3.5 percent, and 4.0 percent during 2021-
2025. For each of the ``action alternatives'' (i.e., those involving
stringency increases beyond the no-
[[Page 40346]]
action alternative), the annual stringency increases are applied as
follows: An annual stringency increase of r is applied by multiplying
the model year 2020 target functions (identical to those applicable to
model year 2018) by 1-r to define the model year 2021 target functions,
multiplying the model year 2021 target functions by 1-r to define the
model year 2022 target functions, continuing through 2025 for all
alternatives except for the preferred Alternative 3 which extends
through 2027. In summary, the agencies have considered the following
five regulatory alternatives in Table VI-3.
Table VI-3 Regulatory Alternatives
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Annual stringency increase
Regulatory alternative --------------------------------
2019-2020 2021-2025 2026-2027
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1: No Action........................... None None None
2: 2.0%/y.............................. None 2.0% None
3: 2.5%/y.............................. None 2.5% 2.5%
4: 3.5%/y.............................. None 3.5% None
5: 4.0%/y.............................. None 4.0% None
------------------------------------------------------------------------
(2) DOT CAFE Model
DOT developed the CAFE model in 2002 to support the 2003 issuance
of CAFE standards for MYs 2005-2007 light trucks. DOT has since
significantly expanded and refined the model, and has applied the model
to support every ensuing CAFE rulemaking for both light-duty and heavy-
duty. For this analysis, the model was reconfigured to use the work
based attribute metric of ``work factor'' established in the Phase 1
rule instead of the light duty ``footprint'' attribute metric.
Although the CAFE model can also be used for more aggregated
analysis (e.g., involving ``representative vehicles'', single-year
snapshots, etc.), NHTSA designed the model with a view toward (a)
detailed simulation of manufacturers' potential actions given a defined
set of standards, followed by (b) calculation of resultant impacts and
economic costs and benefits. The model is intended to describe actions
manufacturers could take in light of defined standards and other input
assumptions and estimates, not to predict actions manufacturers will
take in light of competing product and market interests (e.g. engine
power, customer features, technology acceptance, etc.).
For these rules, the agencies conducted coordinated and
complementary analyses using two analytical methods for the heavy-duty
pickup and van segment by employing both DOT's CAFE model and EPA's
MOVES model. The agencies used EPA's MOVES model to estimate fuel
consumption and emissions impacts for tractor-trailers (including the
engine that powers the tractor), and vocational vehicles (including the
engine that powers the vehicle). Additional calculations were performed
to determine corresponding monetized program costs and benefits. For
heavy-duty pickups and vans, the agencies performed complementary
analyses, which we refer to as ``Method A'' and ``Method B''. In Method
A, the CAFE model was used to project a pathway the industry could use
to comply with each regulatory alternative and the estimated effects on
fuel consumption, emissions, benefits and costs. In Method B, the CAFE
model was used to project a pathway the industry could use to comply
with each regulatory alternative, along with resultant impacts on per
vehicle costs, and the MOVES model was used to calculate corresponding
changes in total fuel consumption and annual emissions. Additional
calculations were performed to determine corresponding monetized
program costs and benefits. NHTSA considered Method A as its central
analysis and Method B as a supplemental analysis. EPA considered the
results of both methods. The agencies concluded that both methods led
the agencies to the same conclusions and the same selection of the
proposed standards. See Section VII for additional discussion of these
two methods.
As a starting point, the model makes use of an input file defining
the analysis fleet--that is, a set of specific vehicle models (e.g.,
Ford F250) and model configurations (e.g., Ford F250 with 6.2-liter V8
engine, 4WD, and 6-speed manual transmission) estimated or assumed to
be produced by each manufacturer in each model year to be included in
the analysis. The analysis fleet includes key engineering attributes
(e.g., curb weight, payload and towing capacities, dimensions, presence
of various fuel-saving technologies) of each vehicle model, engine, and
transmissions, along with estimates or assumptions of future production
volumes. It also specifies the extent to which specific vehicle models
share engines, transmissions, and vehicle platforms, and describes each
manufacturer's estimated or assumed product cadence (i.e., timing for
freshening and redesigning different vehicles and platforms). This
input file also specifies a payback period used to estimate the
potential that each manufacturer might apply technology to improve fuel
economy beyond levels required by standards. The file used for this
analysis was created from 2014 manufacturer compliance reports for the
base sales and technology information, and a future fleet projection
created from a combination of data from a sales forecast that the
agencies purchased from IHS Automotive and total volumes class 2b and 3
fleet volumes from 2014 AEO Reference Case. A complete description of
the future fleet is available in Draft RIA Chapter 10.
A second input file to the model contains a variety of contextual
estimates and assumptions. Some of these inputs, such as future fuel
prices and vehicle survival and mileage accumulation (versus vehicle
age), are relevant to estimating manufacturers' potential application
of fuel-saving technologies. Some others, such as fuel density and
carbon content, vehicular and upstream emission factors, the social
cost of carbon dioxide emissions, and the discount rate, are relevant
to calculating physical and economic impacts of manufacturers'
application of fuel-saving technologies.
A third input file contains estimates and assumptions regarding the
future applicability, availability, efficacy, and cost of various fuel-
saving technologies. Efficacy is expressed in terms of the percentage
reduction in fuel consumption, cost is expressed in dollars, and both
efficacy and cost are expressed on an incremental basis (i.e.,
estimates for more advanced technologies are specified as increments
beyond less advanced technologies). The input file also includes
``synergy factors'' used to make adjustments accounting for the
potential that some combinations of technologies may result fuel
savings or costs different from those indicated by incremental values.
Finally, a fourth model input file specifies standards to be
evaluated. Standards are defined on a year-by-year basis separately for
each regulatory class (passenger cars, light trucks, and heavy-duty
pickups and vans). Regulatory alternatives are specified as discrete
scenarios, with one scenario defining the no-action alternative or
``baseline'', all other scenarios defining regulatory alternatives to
be evaluated relative to that no-action alternative.
Given these inputs, the model estimates each manufacturer's
potential year-by-year application of fuel-saving technologies to each
engine, transmission, and vehicle. Subject to a range of engineering
and planning-related constraints (e.g., secondary axle disconnect can't
be applied to 2-wheel drive vehicles, many major technologies can only
be applied practicably as part
[[Page 40347]]
of a vehicle redesign, and applied technologies carry forward between
model years), the model attempts to apply technology to each
manufacturer's fleet in a manner that minimizes ``effective costs''
(accounting, in particular, for technology costs and avoided fuel
outlays), continuing to add improvements as long as doing so would help
toward compliance with specified standards or would produce fuel
savings that ``pay back'' at least as quickly as specified in the input
file mentioned above.
After estimating the extent to which each manufacturer might add
fuel-saving technologies under each specified regulatory alternative,
the model calculates a range of physical impacts, such as changes in
highway travel (i.e., VMT), changes in fleetwide fuel consumption,
changes in highway fatalities, and changes in vehicular and upstream
greenhouse gas and criteria pollutant emissions. The model also applies
a variety of input estimates and assumptions to calculate economic
costs and benefits to vehicle owners and society, based on these
physical impacts.
Since the manufacturers of HD pickups and vans generally only have
one basic pickup truck and van with different versions ((i.e.,
different wheelbases, cab sizes, two-wheel drive, four-wheel drive,
etc.) there exists less flexibility than in the light-duty fleet to
coordinate model improvements over several years. As such, the CAFE
model allows changes to the HD pickups and vans to meet new standards
according to predefined redesign cycles included as a model input. As
noted above, the opportunities for large-scale changes (e.g., new
engines, transmission, vehicle body and mass) thus occur less
frequently than in the light-duty fleet, typically at spans of eight or
more years for this analysis. However, opportunities for gradual
improvements not necessarily linked to large scale changes can occur
between the redesign cycles (i.e., model refresh). Examples of such
improvements are upgrades to an existing vehicle model's engine,
transmission and aftertreatment systems. Given the long redesign cycle
used in this analysis and the understanding with respect to where the
different manufacturers are in that cycle, the agencies have initially
determined that the full implementation of the proposed standards would
be feasible and appropriate by the 2027 model year.
This analysis reflects several changes made to the model since
2012, when NHTSA used the model to estimate the effects, costs, and
benefits of final CAFE standards for light-duty vehicles produced
during MYs 2017-2021, and augural standards for MYs 2022-2025. Some of
these changes specifically enable analysis of potential fuel
consumption standards (and, hence, CO2 emissions standards
harmonized with fuel consumption standards) for heavy-duty pickups and
vans; other changes implement more general improvements to the model.
Key changes include the following:
Changes to accommodate standards for heavy-duty pickups
and vans, including attribute-based standards involving targets that
vary with ``work factor''.
Explicit calculation of test weight, taking into account
test weight ``bins'' and differences in the definition of test weight
for light-duty vehicles (curb weight plus 300 pound) and heavy-duty
pickups and vans (average of GVWR and curb weight).
Procedures to estimate increases in payload when curb
weight is reduced, increases in towing capacity if GVWR is reduced, and
calculation procedures to correspondingly update calculated work
factors.
Inclusion of technologies not included in prior analyses.
Changes to enable more explicit accounting for shared
vehicle platforms and adoption and ``inheritance'' of major engine
changes.
Expansion of the Monte Carlo simulation procedures used to
perform probabilistic uncertainty analysis.
In addition to the inputs summarized above, the agencies' analysis
of potential standards for HD pickups and vans makes use of a range of
other estimates and assumptions specified as inputs to the CAFE
modeling system. Some significant inputs (e.g., estimates of future
fuel prices) also applicable to other HD segments are discussed below
in Section IX. Others more specific to the analysis of HD pickups and
vans are listed as follows, with additional details in section D:
Vehicle survival and mileage accumulation
VMT rebound
On-road ``gap'' in fuel consumption
Fleet population profile
Past fuel consumption levels
Long-term fuel consumption levels
Payback period
Coefficients for fatality calculations
Compliance credits carried-forward
Emission factors for non-CO2 emissions
Refueling time benefits
External Costs of travel
Ownership and operating costs
The CAFE model and its modifications for this rulemaking are
described in more detail in Section VI. below as well as the Draft RIA
Chapter 10.
(3) How Did the Agencies Develop the Analysis Fleet
In order to more accurately estimate the impacts of potential
standards, the agencies are estimating the composition of the future
vehicle fleet. Projections of the future vehicle fleet are also done
for both vocational vehicles and tractors. The procedure for pickups
and vans is more detailed, though, in order to show the differences for
each manufacturer in the segment. Doing so enables estimation of the
extent to which each manufacturer may need to add technology in
response to a given series of attribute-based standards, accounting for
the mix and fuel consumption of vehicles in each manufacturer's
regulated fleet. The agencies create an analysis fleet in order to
track the volumes and types of fuel economy-improving and
CO2-reducing technologies that are already present in the
existing fleet of Class 2b and 3 vehicles. This aspect of the analysis
fleet helps to keep the CAFE model from adding technologies to vehicles
that already have these technologies, which would result in ``double
counting'' of technologies' costs and benefits. An additional step
involved projecting the fleet sales into MYs 2019-2030. This represents
the fleet volumes that the agencies believe would exist in MYs 2019-
2030. The CAFE model considers the actual redesign years of each
vehicle platform for each manufacturer. Due to credit banking, some
manufacturers may not need to add technology to comply with the
standards until later model years, which may be after the rulemaking
period. Therefore, it is necessary to run the model until all of the
vehicle technology changes have stabilized.
Most of the information about the vehicles that make up the 2014
analysis fleet was gathered from the 2014 Pre-Model Year Reports
submitted to EPA by the manufacturers under Phase 1 of Fuel Efficiency
and GHG Emission Program for Medium- and Heavy-Duty Trucks, MYs 2014-
2018. The major manufacturers of class 2b and class 3 trucks (Chrysler,
Ford and GM) were asked to voluntarily submit updates to their Pre-
Model Year Reports. Updated data were provided by Chrysler and GM. The
agencies used these updated data in constructing the analysis fleet for
these manufacturers. The agencies agreed to treat this information as
Confidential Business Information (CBI) until the publication of the
proposed rule. This information can be made public at this
[[Page 40348]]
time because by now all MY2014 vehicle models have been produced, which
makes data about them essentially public information.
In addition to information about each vehicle, the agencies need
additional information about the fuel economy-improving/CO2-
reducing technologies already on those vehicles in order to assess how
much and which technologies to apply to determine a path toward future
compliance. To correctly account for the cost and effectiveness of
adding technologies, it is necessary to know the technology penetration
in the existing vehicle fleet. Otherwise, ``double-counting'' of
technology could occur. Thus, the agencies augmented this information
with publicly-available data that include more complete technology
descriptions, e.g. for specific engines and transmissions.
The analysis fleet also requires projections of sales volumes for
the years of the rulemaking analysis. The agencies relied on the MY
2014 pre-model-year compliance submissions from manufacturers to
provide sales volumes at the model level based on the level of
disaggregation in which the models appear in the compliance data.
However, the agencies only use these reported volumes without
adjustment for MY 2014. For all future model years, we combine the
manufacturer submissions with sales projections from the 2014 Annual
Energy Outlook Reference Case and IHS Automotive to determine model
variant level sales volumes in future years.
For more detail on how the analysis fleet and sales volume
projections were developed, please see Section D below as well as the
draft RIA Chapter 10.
(4) What Technologies Did the Agencies Consider
The agencies considered over 35 vehicle technologies that
manufacturers could use to improve the fuel consumption and reduce
CO2 emissions of their vehicles during MYs 2021-2027. The
majority of the technologies described in this section are readily
available, well known and proven in other vehicle sectors, and could be
incorporated into vehicles once production decisions are made. Other
technologies considered may not currently be in production, but are
beyond the research phase and under development, and are expected to be
in production in highway vehicles over the next few years. These are
technologies that are capable of achieving significant improvements in
fuel economy and reductions in CO2 emissions, at reasonable
costs. The agencies did not consider technologies in the research stage
because there is insufficient time for such technologies to move from
research to production during the model years covered by this proposed
action. However, we are considering and seek comment on advanced
technology credits to encourage the development of such technologies,
as discussed below in Section VI.E.
The technologies considered in the agencies' analysis are briefly
described below. They fall into five broad categories: Engine
technologies, transmission technologies, vehicle technologies,
electrification/accessory technologies, and hybrid technologies.
In this class of trucks and vans, diesel engines are installed in
about half of all vehicles. The buyer's decision to purchase a diesel
versus gasoline engine depends on several factors including initial
purchase price, fuel operating costs, durability, towing capability and
payload capacity amongst other reasons. As discussed in IV.B. above,
the agencies generally prefer to set standards that do not distinguish
between fuel types where technological or market-based reasons do not
strongly argue otherwise. However, as with Phase 1, we continue to
believe that fundamental differences between spark ignition and
compression ignition engines warrant unique fuel standards, which is
also important in ensuring that our program maintains product choices
available to vehicle buyers. Therefore, we are proposing separate
standards for gasoline and diesel vehicles and in the context of our
technology discussion for heavy-duty pickups and vans, we are treating
gasoline and diesel engines separately so each has a set of baseline
technologies. We discuss performance improvements in terms of changes
to those baseline engines. Our cost and inventory estimates contained
elsewhere reflect the current fleet baseline with an appropriate mix of
gasoline and diesel engines. Note that we are not basing the proposed
standards on a targeted switch in the mix of diesel and gasoline
vehicles. We believe our proposed standards require similar levels of
technology development and cost for both diesel and gasoline vehicles.
Hence the proposed program is not intended to force, nor discourage,
changes in a manufacturer's fleet mix between gasoline and diesel
vehicles. Types of engine technologies that improve fuel efficiency and
reduce CO2 emissions include the following:
Low-friction lubricants--Low viscosity and advanced low
friction lubricant oils are now available with improved performance and
better lubrication. If manufacturers choose to make use of these
lubricants, they would need to make engine changes and possibly conduct
durability testing to accommodate the low-friction lubricants.
Reduction of engine friction losses--Can be achieved
through low-tension piston rings, roller cam followers, improved
material coatings, more optimal thermal management, piston surface
treatments, and other improvements in the design of engine components
and subsystems that improve engine operation.
Reduction of engine parasitic demand--Mechanical engine
load reduction can be achieved by variable-displacement oil pumps,
higher-efficiency direct injection fuel pumps, and variable speed/
displacement coolant pumps.
Cylinder deactivation--Deactivates the intake and exhaust
valves and prevents fuel injection into some cylinders during light-
load operation. The engine runs temporarily as though it were a smaller
engine which substantially reduces pumping losses.
Variable valve timing--Alters the timing of the intake
valve, exhaust valve, or both, primarily to reduce pumping losses,
increase specific power, and control residual gases.
Variable valve lift--Alters the intake valve lift in order
to reduce pumping losses and more efficiently ingest air.
Stoichiometric gasoline direct-injection technology--
Injects fuel at high pressure directly into the combustion chamber to
improve cooling of the air/fuel charge within the cylinder, which
allows for higher compression ratios and increased thermodynamic
efficiency.
Cooled exhaust gas recirculation--Technology that
conceptually involves utilizing EGR as a charge diluent for controlling
combustion temperatures and cooling the EGR prior to its introduction
to the combustion system.
Turbocharging and downsizing--Technology
approach that conceptually involves decreasing the displacement and
cylinder count to improve efficiency when not demanding regular high
loads and adding a turbocharger to recover any loss to the original
larger engine peak operating power. This technology was limited in this
analysis to vehicles that are not expected to operate at high trailer
towing levels and instead are more akin to duty cycles of light duty
(i.e. V6 vans).
Lean-burn combustion--Concept that gasoline
engines that are normally stoichiometric mainly for emission reasons
can run lean over a range of
[[Page 40349]]
operating conditions and utilize diesel like aftertreatment systems to
control NOX. For this analysis, we determined that the modal
operation nature of this technology to currently only be beneficial at
light loads would not be appropriate for a heavy duty application
purchased specifically for its high work and load capability.
Diesel engine improvements and diesel aftertreatment
improvements--Improved turbocharger, EGR systems, and advanced timing
can provide more efficient combustion and, hence, lower fuel
consumption. Aftertreatment systems are a relatively new technology on
diesel vehicles and, as such, improvements are expected in coming years
that allow the effectiveness of these systems to improve while reducing
the fuel and reductant demands of current systems.
Types of transmission technologies considered include:
Eight-speed automatic transmissions--The gear span, gear
ratios, and control system are optimized for a broader range of
efficient engine operating conditions.
High efficiency transmission--Significant reduction of
internal parasitic losses such as pumps gear bands, etc.
Driveline friction reduction--Reduction in the driveline
friction from improvements to bearings, seals and other machining
tolerances in the axles and transfer cases.
Secondary axle disconnect--Disconnecting of some rotating
components in the front axle on 4wd vehicles when the secondary axle is
not needed for traction.
Types of vehicle technologies considered include:
Low-rolling-resistance tires--Have characteristics that
reduce frictional losses associated with the energy dissipated in the
deformation of the tires under load, therefore improving fuel
efficiency and reducing CO2 emissions.
Aerodynamic drag reduction--is achieved by changing
vehicle shape or reducing frontal area, including skirts, air dams,
underbody covers, and more aerodynamic side view mirrors.
Mass reduction and material substitution--Mass reduction
encompasses a variety of techniques ranging from improved design and
better component integration to application of lighter and higher-
strength materials. Mass reduction is further compounded by reductions
in engine power and ancillary systems (transmission, steering, brakes,
suspension, etc.). The agencies recognize there is a range of diversity
and complexity for mass reduction and material substitution
technologies and there are many techniques that automotive suppliers
and manufacturers are using to achieve the levels of this technology
that the agencies have modeled in our analysis for this program.
Types of electrification/accessory and hybrid technologies
considered include:
Electric power steering--Are electrically-assisted
steering systems that have advantages over traditional hydraulic power
steering because it replaces a continuously operated hydraulic pump,
thereby reducing parasitic losses from the accessory drive.
Improved accessories--May include high efficiency
alternators, electrically driven (i.e., on-demand) water pumps and
cooling fans. This excludes other electrical accessories such as
electric oil pumps and electrically driven air conditioner compressors.
Mild hybrid--A small, engine-driven (through a belt or
other mechanism) electric motor/generator/battery combination to enable
features such as start-stop, energy recovery, and launch assist.
Strong hybrid--A powerful electric motor/generator/battery
system coupled to the powertrain to enable features such as start-stop,
and significant levels of launch assist, electric operation, and brake
energy recovery. For HD pickups and vans, the engine coupled with the
strong hybrid system would remain unchanged in power and torque to
ensure vehicle performance at all times, even if the hybrid battery is
depleted.
Air Conditioner Systems--These technologies include
improved hoses, connectors and seals for leakage control. They also
include improved compressors, expansion valves, heat exchangers and the
control of these components for the purposes of improving tailpipe
CO2 emissions as a result of A/C use.\342\
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\342\ See Draft RIA Chapter 2.3 for more detailed technology
descriptions.
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(5) How Did the Agencies Determine the Costs and Effectiveness of Each
of These Technologies
Building on the technical analysis underlying the 2017-2025 MY
light-duty vehicle rule, the 2014-2018 MY heavy-duty vehicle rule, and
the 2015 NHTSA Technology Study, the agencies took a fresh look at
technology cost and effectiveness values for purposes of this proposal.
For costs, the agencies reconsidered both the direct (or ``piece'')
costs and indirect costs of individual components of technologies. For
the direct costs, the agencies followed a bill of materials (BOM)
approach employed by the agencies in the light-duty rule as well as
referencing costs from the 2014-2018 MY heavy-duty vehicle rule and a
new cost survey performed by Tetra Tech in 2014.
For two technologies, stoichiometric gasoline direct injection
(SGDI) and turbocharging with engine downsizing, the agencies relied to
the extent possible on the available tear-down data and scaling
methodologies used in EPA's ongoing study with FEV, Incorporated. This
study consists of complete system tear-down to evaluate technologies
down to the nuts and bolts to arrive at very detailed estimates of the
costs associated with manufacturing them.\343\
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\343\ U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, ``Draft Report--
Light-Duty Technology Cost Analysis Pilot Study,'' Contract No. EP-
C-07-069, Work Assignment 1-3, September 3, 2009.
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For the other technologies, considering all sources of information
and using the BOM approach, the agencies worked together intensively to
determine component costs for each of the technologies and build up the
costs accordingly. Where estimates differ between sources, we have used
engineering judgment to arrive at what we believe to be the best cost
estimate available today, and explained the basis for that exercise of
judgment.
Once costs were determined, they were adjusted to ensure that they
were all expressed in 2012 dollars (see Section IX.B.1.e of this
preamble), and indirect costs were accounted for using a methodology
consistent with the new ICM approach developed by EPA and used in the
Phase 1 rule, and the 2012-2016 and 2017-2025 light-duty rules. NHTSA
and EPA also reconsidered how costs should be adjusted by modifying or
scaling content assumptions to account for differences across the range
of vehicle sizes and functional requirements, and adjusted the
associated material cost impacts to account for the revised content. We
present the individual technology costs used in this analysis in
Chapter 2.12 of the Draft RIA.
Regarding estimates for technology effectiveness, the agencies used
the estimates from the 2014 Southwest Research Institute study as a
baseline, which was designed specifically to inform this rulemaking. In
addition, the agencies used 2017-2025 light-duty rule as a reference,
and adjusted these estimates as appropriate, taking into account the
unique requirement of the heavy-duty test cycles to test at curb weight
plus half payload versus the light-duty requirement of curb plus 300
[[Page 40350]]
lb. The adjustments were made on an individual technology basis by
assessing the specific impact of the added load on each technology when
compared to the use of the technology on a light-duty vehicle. The
agencies also considered other sources such as the 2010 NAS Report,
recent CAFE compliance data, and confidential manufacturer estimates of
technology effectiveness. The agencies reviewed effectiveness
information from the multiple sources for each technology and ensured
that such effectiveness estimates were based on technology hardware
consistent with the BOM components used to estimate costs. Together,
the agencies compared the multiple estimates and assessed their
validity, taking care to ensure that common BOM definitions and other
vehicle attributes such as performance and drivability were taken into
account.
The agencies note that the effectiveness values estimated for the
technologies may represent average values applied to the baseline fleet
described earlier, and do not reflect the potentially limitless
spectrum of possible values that could result from adding the
technology to different vehicles. For example, while the agencies have
estimated an effectiveness of 0.5 percent for low friction lubricants,
each vehicle could have a unique effectiveness estimate depending on
the baseline vehicle's oil viscosity rating. Similarly, the reduction
in rolling resistance (and thus the improvement in fuel efficiency and
the reduction in CO2 emissions) due to the application of
LRR tires depends not only on the unique characteristics of the tires
originally on the vehicle, but on the unique characteristics of the
tires being applied, characteristics which must be balanced between
fuel efficiency, safety, and performance. Aerodynamic drag reduction is
much the same--it can improve fuel efficiency and reduce CO2
emissions, but it is also highly dependent on vehicle-specific
functional objectives. For purposes of this proposed rule, the agencies
believe that employing average values for technology effectiveness
estimates is an appropriate way of recognizing the potential variation
in the specific benefits that individual manufacturers (and individual
vehicles) might obtain from adding a fuel-saving technology.
The following contains a description of technologies the agencies
considered in the analysis for this proposal.
(a) Engine Technologies
The agencies reviewed the engine technology estimates used in the
2017-2025 light-duty rule, the 2014-2018 heavy-duty rule, and the 2015
NHTSA Technology Study. In doing so the agencies reconsidered all
available sources and updated the estimates as appropriate. The section
below describes both diesel and gasoline engine technologies considered
for this program.
(i) Low Friction Lubricants
One of the most basic methods of reducing fuel consumption in both
gasoline and diesel engines is the use of lower viscosity engine
lubricants. More advanced multi-viscosity engine oils are available
today with improved performance in a wider temperature band and with
better lubricating properties. This can be accomplished by changes to
the oil base stock (e.g., switching engine lubricants from a Group I
base oils to lower-friction, lower viscosity Group III synthetic) and
through changes to lubricant additive packages (e.g., friction
modifiers and viscosity improvers). The use of 5W-30 motor oil is now
widespread and auto manufacturers are introducing the use of even lower
viscosity oils, such as 5W-20 and 0W-20, to improve cold-flow
properties and reduce cold start friction. However, in some cases,
changes to the crankshaft, rod and main bearings and changes to the
mechanical tolerances of engine components may be required. In all
cases, durability testing would be required to ensure that durability
is not compromised. The shift to lower viscosity and lower friction
lubricants will also improve the effectiveness of valvetrain
technologies such as cylinder deactivation, which rely on a minimum oil
temperature (viscosity) for operation.
(ii) Engine Friction Reduction
In addition to low friction lubricants, manufacturers can also
reduce friction and improve fuel consumption by improving the design of
both diesel and gasoline engine components and subsystems.
Approximately 10 percent of the energy consumed by a vehicle is lost to
friction, and just over half is due to frictional losses within the
engine.\344\ Examples include improvements in low-tension piston rings,
piston skirt design, roller cam followers, improved crankshaft design
and bearings, material coatings, material substitution, more optimal
thermal management, and piston and cylinder surface treatments.
Additionally, as computer-aided modeling software continues to improve,
more opportunities for evolutionary friction reductions may become
available. All reciprocating and rotating components in the engine are
potential candidates for friction reduction, and minute improvements in
several components can add up to a measurable fuel efficiency
improvement.
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\344\ ``Impact of Friction Reduction Technologies on Fuel
Economy,'' Fenske, G. Presented at the March 2009 Chicago Chapter
Meeting of the `Society of Tribologists and Lubricated Engineers'
Meeting, March 18th, 2009. Available at: https://www.chicagostle.org/program/2008-2009/Impact%20of%20Friction%20Reduction%20Technologies%20on%20Fuel%20Economy%20-%20with%20VGs%20removed.pdf (last accessed July 9, 2009).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
(iii) Engine Parasitic Demand Reduction
In addition to physical engine friction reduction, manufacturers
can reduce the mechanical load on the engine from parasitics, such as
oil, fuel, and coolant pumps. The high-pressure fuel pumps of direct-
injection gasoline and diesel engines have particularly high demand.
Example improvements include variable speed or variable displacement
water pumps, variable displacement oil pumps, more efficient high
pressure fuel pumps, valvetrain upgrades and shutting off piston
cooling when not needed.
(iv) Coupled Cam Phasing
Valvetrains with coupled (or coordinated) cam phasing can modify
the timing of both the inlet valves and the exhaust valves an equal
amount by phasing the camshaft of an overhead valve engine.\345\ For
overhead valve engines, which have only one camshaft to actuate both
inlet and exhaust valves, couple cam phasing is the only variable valve
timing implementation option available and requires only one cam
phaser.\346\
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\345\ Although couple cam phasing appears only in the single
overhead cam and overhead valve branches of the decision tree, it is
noted that a single phaser with a secondary chain drive would allow
couple cam phasing to be applied to direct overhead cam engines.
Since this would potentially be adopted on a limited number of
direct overhead cam engines NHTSA did not include it in that branch
of the decision tree.
\346\ It is also noted that coaxial camshaft developments would
allow other variable valve timing options to be applied to overhead
valve engines. However, since they would potentially be adopted on a
limited number of overhead valve engines, NHTSA did not include them
in the decision tree.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
(v) Cylinder Deactivation
In conventional spark-ignited engines throttling the airflow
controls engine torque output. At partial loads, efficiency can be
improved by using cylinder deactivation instead of throttling. Cylinder
deactivation can improve engine efficiency by disabling or deactivating
(usually) half of the cylinders when the load is less than half of the
engine's total torque capability--the valves are kept closed, and no
fuel is injected--as a result, the trapped air
[[Page 40351]]
within the deactivated cylinders is simply compressed and expanded as
an air spring, with reduced friction and heat losses. The active
cylinders combust at almost double the load required if all of the
cylinders were operating. Pumping losses are significantly reduced as
long as the engine is operated in this ``part-cylinder'' mode.
Cylinder deactivation control strategy relies on setting maximum
manifold absolute pressures or predicted torque within a range in which
it can deactivate the cylinders. Noise and vibration issues reduce the
operating range to which cylinder deactivation is allowed, although
manufacturers are exploring vehicle changes that enable increasing the
amount of time that cylinder deactivation might be suitable. Some
manufacturers may choose to adopt active engine mounts and/or active
noise cancellations systems to address Noise Vibration and Harshness
(NVH) concerns and to allow a greater operating range of activation.
Cylinder deactivation has seen a recent resurgence thanks to better
valvetrain designs and engine controls. General Motors and Chrysler
Group have incorporated cylinder deactivation across a substantial
portion of their V8-powered lineups.
(vi) Stoichiometric Gasoline Direct Injection
SGDI engines inject fuel at high pressure directly into the
combustion chamber (rather than the intake port in port fuel
injection). SGDI requires changes to the injector design, an additional
high pressure fuel pump, new fuel rails to handle the higher fuel
pressures and changes to the cylinder head and piston crown design.
Direct injection of the fuel into the cylinder improves cooling of the
air/fuel charge within the cylinder, which allows for higher
compression ratios and increased thermodynamic efficiency without the
onset of combustion knock. Recent injector design advances, improved
electronic engine management systems and the introduction of multiple
injection events per cylinder firing cycle promote better mixing of the
air and fuel, enhance combustion rates, increase residual exhaust gas
tolerance and improve cold start emissions. SGDI engines achieve higher
power density and match well with other technologies, such as boosting
and variable valvetrain designs.
Several manufacturers have recently introduced vehicles with SGDI
engines, including GM and Ford and have announced their plans to
increase dramatically the number of SGDI engines in their portfolios.
(vii) Turbocharging and Downsizing
The specific power of a naturally aspirated engine is primarily
limited by the rate at which the engine is able to draw air into the
combustion chambers. Turbocharging and supercharging (grouped together
here as boosting) are two methods to increase the intake manifold
pressure and cylinder charge-air mass above naturally aspirated levels.
Boosting increases the airflow into the engine, thus increasing the
specific power level, and with it the ability to reduce engine
displacement while maintaining performance. This effectively reduces
the pumping losses at lighter loads in comparison to a larger,
naturally aspirated engine.
Almost every major manufacturer currently markets a vehicle with
some form of boosting. While boosting has been a common practice for
increasing performance for several decades, turbocharging has
considerable potential to improve fuel economy and reduce
CO2 emissions when the engine displacement is also reduced.
Specific power levels for a boosted engine often exceed 100 hp/L,
compared to average naturally aspirated engine power densities of
roughly 70 hp/L. As a result, engines can be downsized roughly 30
percent or higher while maintaining similar peak output levels. In the
last decade, improvements to turbocharger turbine and compressor design
have improved their reliability and performance across the entire
engine operating range. New variable geometry turbines and ball-bearing
center cartridges allow faster turbocharger spool-up (virtually
eliminating the once-common ``turbo lag'') while maintaining high flow
rates for increased boost at high engine speeds. Low speed torque
output has been dramatically improved for modern turbocharged engines.
However, even with turbocharger improvements, maximum engine torque at
very low engine speed conditions, for example launch from standstill,
is increased less than at mid and high engine speed conditions. The
potential to downsize engines may be less on vehicles with low
displacement to vehicle mass ratios for example a very small
displacement engine in a vehicle with significant curb weight, in order
to provide adequate acceleration from standstill, particularly up
grades or at high altitudes.
The use of GDI in combination with turbocharging and charge air
cooling reduces the fuel octane requirements for knock limited
combustion enabling the use of higher compression ratios and boosting
pressures. Recently published data with advanced spray-guided injection
systems and more aggressive engine downsizing targeted towards reduced
fuel consumption and CO2 emissions reductions indicate that
the potential for reducing CO2 emissions for turbocharged,
downsized GDI engines may be as much as 15 to 30 percent relative to
port-fuel-injected engines.14 15 16 17 18 Confidential
manufacturer data suggests an incremental range of fuel consumption and
CO2 emission reduction of 4.8 to 7.5 percent for
turbocharging and downsizing. Other publicly-available sources suggest
a fuel consumption and CO2 emission reduction of 8 to 13
percent compared to current-production naturally-aspirated engines
without friction reduction or other fuel economy technologies: a joint
technical paper by Bosch and Ricardo suggesting fuel economy gain of 8
to 10 percent for downsizing from a 5.7 liter port injection V8 to a
3.6 liter V6 with direct injection using a wall-guided direct injection
system; a Renault report suggesting a 11.9 percent NEDC fuel
consumption gain for downsizing from a 1.4 liter port injection in-line
4-cylinder engine to a 1.0 liter in-line 4-cylinder engine, also with
wall-guided direct injection; and a Robert Bosch paper suggesting a 13
percent NEDC gain for downsizing to a turbocharged DI engine, again
with wall-guided injection. These reported fuel economy benefits show a
wide range depending on the SGDI technology employed.
Note that for this analysis we determined that this technology path
is only applicable to heavy duty applications that have operating
conditions more closely associated with light duty vehicles. This
includes vans designed mainly for cargo volume or modest payloads
having similar GCWR to light duty applications. These vans cannot tow
trailers heavier than similar light duty vehicles and are largely
already sharing engines of significantly smaller displacement and
cylinder count compared to heavy duty vehicles designed mainly for
trailer towing.
(viii) Cooled Exhaust-Gas Recirculation
Cooled exhaust gas recirculation or Boosted EGR is a combustion
concept that involves utilizing EGR as a charge diluent for controlling
combustion temperatures and cooling the EGR prior to its introduction
to the combustion system. Higher exhaust gas residual levels at part
load conditions reduce pumping losses for increased fuel economy. The
additional charge dilution enabled by cooled EGR reduces the incidence
of knocking combustion
[[Page 40352]]
and obviates the need for fuel enrichment at high engine power. This
allows for higher boost pressure and/or compression ratio and further
reduction in engine displacement and both pumping and friction losses
while maintaining performance. Engines of this type use GDI and both
dual cam phasing and discrete variable valve lift. The EGR systems
considered in this proposed rule, consistent with the proposal, would
use a dual-loop system with both high and low pressure EGR loops and
dual EGR coolers. The engines would also use single-stage, variable
geometry turbocharging with higher intake boost pressure available
across a broader range of engine operation than conventional
turbocharged SI engines. Such a system is estimated to be capable of an
additional 3 to 5 percent effectiveness relative to a turbocharged,
downsized GDI engine without cooled-EGR. The agencies have also
considered a more advanced version of such a cooled EGR system that
employs very high combustion pressures by using dual stage
turbocharging.
(b) Diesel Engine Technologies
Diesel engines have several characteristics that give them superior
fuel efficiency compared to conventional gasoline, spark-ignited
engines. Pumping losses are much lower due to lack of (or greatly
reduced) throttling. The diesel combustion cycle operates at a higher
compression ratio, with a very lean air/fuel mixture, and turbocharged
light-duty diesels typically achieve much higher torque levels at lower
engine speeds than equivalent-displacement naturally-aspirated gasoline
engines. Additionally, diesel fuel has a higher energy content per
gallon.\347\ However, diesel fuel also has a higher carbon to hydrogen
ratio, which increases the amount of CO2 emitted per gallon
of fuel used by approximately 15 percent over a gallon of gasoline.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\347\ Burning one gallon of diesel fuel produces about 15
percent more carbon dioxide than gasoline due to the higher density
and carbon to hydrogen ratio.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Based on confidential business information and the 2010 NAS Report,
two major areas of diesel engine design could be improved during the
timeframe of this proposed rule. These areas include aftertreatment
improvements and a broad range of engine improvements.
(i) Aftertreatment Improvements
The HD diesel pickup and van segment has largely adopted the SCR
type of aftertreatment system to comply with criteria pollutant
emission standards. As the experience base for SCR expands over the
next few years, many improvements in this aftertreatment system such as
construction of the catalyst, thermal management, and reductant
optimization may result in a reduction in the amount of fuel used in
the process. However, due to uncertainties with these improvements
regarding the extent of current optimization and future criteria
emissions obligations, the agencies are not considering aftertreatment
improvements as a fuel-saving technology in the rulemaking analysis.
(ii) Engine Improvements
Diesel engines in the HD pickup and van segment are expected to
have several improvements in their base design in the 2021-2027
timeframe. These improvements include items such as improved combustion
management, optimal turbocharger design, and improved thermal
management.
(c) Transmission Technologies
The agencies have also reviewed the transmission technology
estimates used in the 2017-2015 light-duty and 2014-2018 heavy-duty
final rules. In doing so, NHTSA and EPA considered or reconsidered all
available sources including the 2015 NHTSA Technology Study and updated
the estimates as appropriate. The section below describes each of the
transmission technologies considered for the proposal.
(i) Automatic 8-Speed Transmissions
Manufacturers can also choose to replace 6-speed automatic
transmissions with 8-speed automatic transmissions. Additional ratios
allow for further optimization of engine operation over a wider range
of conditions, but this is subject to diminishing returns as the number
of speeds increases. As additional gear sets are added, additional
weight and friction are introduced requiring additional countermeasures
to offset these losses. Some manufacturers are replacing 6-speed
automatics already, and 7- and 8-speed automatics have entered
production.
(ii) High Efficiency Transmission
For this proposal, a high efficiency transmission refers to some or
all of a suite of incremental transmission improvement technologies
that should be available within the 2019 to 2027 timeframe. The
majority of these improvements address mechanical friction within the
transmission. These improvements include but are not limited to:
shifting clutch technology improvements, improved kinematic design, dry
sump lubrication systems, more efficient seals, bearings and clutches
(reducing drag), component superfinishing and improved transmission
lubricants.
(d) Electrification/Accessory Technologies
(i) Electrical Power Steering or Electrohydraulic Power Steering
Electric power steering (EPS) or Electrohydraulic power steering
(EHPS) provides a potential reduction in CO2 emissions and
fuel consumption over hydraulic power steering because of reduced
overall accessory loads. This eliminates the parasitic losses
associated with belt-driven power steering pumps which consistently
draw load from the engine to pump hydraulic fluid through the steering
actuation systems even when the wheels are not being turned. EPS is an
enabler for all vehicle hybridization technologies since it provides
power steering when the engine is off. EPS may be implemented on most
vehicles with a standard 12V system. Some heavier vehicles may require
a higher voltage system which may add cost and complexity.
(ii) Improved Accessories
The accessories on an engine, including the alternator, coolant and
oil pumps are traditionally mechanically-driven. A reduction in
CO2 emissions and fuel consumption can be realized by
driving them electrically, and only when needed (``on-demand'').
Electric water pumps and electric fans can provide better control
of engine cooling. For example, coolant flow from an electric water
pump can be reduced and the radiator fan can be shut off during engine
warm-up or cold ambient temperature conditions which will reduce warm-
up time, reduce warm-up fuel enrichment, and reduce parasitic losses.
Indirect benefit may be obtained by reducing the flow from the
water pump electrically during the engine warm-up period, allowing the
engine to heat more rapidly and thereby reducing the fuel enrichment
needed during cold operation and warm-up of the engine. Faster oil
warm-up may also result from better management of the coolant warm-up
period. Further benefit may be obtained when electrification is
combined with an improved, higher efficiency engine alternator used to
supply power to the electrified accessories.
Intelligent cooling can more easily be applied to vehicles that do
not typically
[[Page 40353]]
carry heavy payloads, so larger vehicles with towing capacity present a
challenge, as these vehicles have high cooling fan loads.\348\ However,
towing vehicles tend to have large cooling system capacity and flow
scaled to required heat rejection levels when under full load
situations such as towing at GCWR in extreme ambient conditions. During
almost all other situations, this design characteristic may result in
unnecessary energy usage for coolant pumping and heat rejection to the
radiator.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\348\ In the CAFE model, improved accessories refers solely to
improved engine cooling. However, EPA has included a high efficiency
alternator in this category, as well as improvements to the cooling
system.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
The agencies considered whether to include electric oil pump
technology for the rulemaking. Because it is necessary to operate the
oil pump any time the engine is running, electric oil pump technology
has insignificant effect on efficiency. Therefore, the agencies decided
to not include electric oil pump technology.
(iii) Mild Hybrid
Mild hybrid systems offer idle-stop functionality and a limited
level of regenerative braking and power assist. These systems replace
the conventional alternator with a belt or crank driven starter/
alternator and may add high voltage electrical accessories (which may
include electric power steering and an auxiliary automatic transmission
pump). The limited electrical requirements of these systems allow the
use of lead-acid batteries or supercapacitors for energy storage, or
the use of a small lithium-ion battery pack.
(iv) Strong Hybrid
A hybrid vehicle is a vehicle that combines two significant sources
of propulsion energy, where one uses a consumable fuel (like gasoline),
and one is rechargeable (during operation, or by another energy
source). Hybrid technology is well established in the U.S. light-duty
market and more manufacturers are adding hybrid models to their
lineups. Hybrids reduce fuel consumption through three major
mechanisms:
The internal combustion engine can be optimized (through
downsizing, modifying the operating cycle, or other control techniques)
to operate at or near its most efficient point more of the time. Power
loss from engine downsizing can be mitigated by employing power assist
from the secondary power source.
A significant amount of the energy normally lost as heat
while braking can be captured and stored in the energy storage system
for later use.
The engine is turned off when it is not needed, such as
when the vehicle is coasting or when stopped.
Hybrid vehicles utilize some combination of the three above
mechanisms to reduce fuel consumption and CO2 emissions. The
effectiveness of fuel consumption and CO2 reduction depends
on the utilization of the above mechanisms and how aggressively they
are pursued. One area where this variation is particularly prevalent is
in the choice of engine size and its effect on balancing fuel economy
and performance. Some manufacturers choose not to downsize the engine
when applying hybrid technologies. In these cases, overall performance
(acceleration) is typically improved beyond the conventional engine.
However, fuel efficiency improves less than if the engine was downsized
to maintain the same performance as the conventional version. The non-
downsizing approach is used for vehicles like trucks where towing and/
or hauling are an integral part of their performance requirements. In
these cases, if the engine is downsized, the battery can be quickly
drained during a long hill climb with a heavy load, leaving only a
downsized engine to carry the entire load. Because towing capability is
currently a heavily-marketed truck attribute, manufacturers are
hesitant to offer a truck with downsized engine which can lead to a
significantly diminished towing performance when the battery state of
charge level is low, and therefore engines are traditionally not
downsized for these vehicles.
Strong Hybrid technology utilizes an axial electric motor connected
to the transmission input shaft and connected to the engine crankshaft
through a clutch. The axial motor is a motor/generator that can provide
sufficient torque for launch assist, all electric operation, and the
ability to recover significant levels of braking energy.
(e) Vehicle Technologies
(i) Mass Reduction
Mass reduction is a technology that can be used in a manufacturer's
strategy to meet the Heavy Duty Greenhouse Gas Phase 2 standards.
Vehicle mass reduction (also referred to as ``down-weighting'' or
`light-weighting''), decreases fuel consumption and GHG emissions by
reducing the energy demand needed to overcome inertia forces, and
rolling resistance. Automotive companies have worked with mass
reduction technologies for many years and a lot of these technologies
have been used in production vehicles. The weight savings achieved by
adopting mass reduction technologies offset weight gains due to
increased vehicle size, larger powertrains, and increased feature
content (sound insulation, entertainment systems, improved climate
control, panoramic roof, etc.). Sometimes mass reduction has been used
to increase vehicle towing and payload capabilities.
Manufacturers employ a systematic approach to mass reduction, where
the net mass reduction is the addition of a direct component or system
mass reduction, also referred to as primary mass reduction, plus the
additional mass reduction taken from indirect ancillary systems and
components, also referred to as secondary mass reduction or mass
compounding. There are more secondary mass reductions achievable for
light-duty vehicles compared to heavy-duty vehicles, which are limited
due to the higher towing and payload requirements for these vehicles.
Mass reduction can be achieved through a number of approaches, even
while maintaining other vehicle functionalities. As summarized by NAS
in its 2011 light duty vehicle report,\349\ there are two key
strategies for primary mass reduction: (1) Changing the design to use
less material; (2) substituting lighter materials for heavier
materials.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\349\ Committee on the Assessment of Technologies for Improving
Light-Duty Vehicle Fuel Economy; National Research Council,
``Assessment of Fuel Economy Technologies for Light-Duty Vehicles'',
2011. Available at https://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=12924
(last accessed Jun 27, 2012).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
The first key strategy of using less material compared to the
baseline component can be achieved by optimizing the design and
structure of vehicle components, systems and vehicle structure. Vehicle
manufacturers have long used these continually-improving CAE tools to
optimize vehicle designs. For example, the Future Steel Vehicle (FSV)
project \350\ sponsored by WorldAutoSteel used three levels of
optimization: topology optimization, low fidelity 3G (Geometry Grade
and Gauge) optimization, and subsystem optimization, to achieve 30
percent mass reduction in the body structure of a vehicle with a mild
steel unibody structure. Using less material can also be achieved
through improving the manufacturing process, such as by using improved
joining technologies and parts consolidation. This method is
[[Page 40354]]
often used in combination with applying new materials.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\350\ SAE World Congress, ``Focus B-pillar `tailor rolled' to 8
different thicknesses,'' Feb. 24, 2010. Available at https://www.sae.org/mags/AEI/7695 (last accessed Jun. 10, 2012).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
The second key strategy to reduce mass of an assembly or component
involves the substitution of lower density and/or higher strength
materials. Material substitution includes replacing materials, such as
mild steel, with higher-strength and advanced steels, aluminum,
magnesium, and composite materials. In practice, material substitution
tends to be quite specific to the manufacturer and situation. Some
materials work better than others for particular vehicle components,
and a manufacturer may invest more heavily in adjusting to a particular
type of advanced material, thus complicating its ability to consider
others. The agencies recognize that like any type of mass reduction,
material substitution has to be conducted not only with consideration
to maintaining equivalent component strength, but also to maintaining
all the other attributes of that component, system or vehicle, such as
crashworthiness, durability, and noise, vibration and harshness (NVH).
If vehicle mass is reduced sufficiently through application of the
two primary strategies of using less material and material substitution
described above, secondary mass reduction options may become available.
Secondary mass reduction is enabled when the load requirements of a
component are reduced as a result of primary mass reduction. If the
primary mass reduction reaches a sufficient level, a manufacturer may
use a smaller, lighter, and potentially more efficient powertrain while
maintaining vehicle acceleration performance. If a powertrain is
downsized, a portion of the mass reduction may be attributed to the
reduced torque requirement which results from the lower vehicle mass.
The lower torque requirement enables a reduction in engine
displacement, changes to transmission torque converter and gear ratios,
and changes to final drive gear ratio. The reduced powertrain torque
enables the downsizing and/or mass reduction of powertrain components
and accompanying reduced rotating mass (e.g., for transmission,
driveshafts/halfshafts, wheels, and tires) without sacrificing
powertrain durability. Likewise, the combined mass reductions of the
engine, drivetrain, and body in turn reduce stresses on the suspension
components, steering components, wheels, tires, and brakes, which can
allow further reductions in the mass of these subsystems. Reducing the
unsprung masses such as the brakes, control arms, wheels, and tires
further reduce stresses in the suspension mounting points, which will
allow for further optimization and potential mass reduction. However,
pickup trucks have towing and hauling requirements which must be taken
into account when determining the amount of secondary mass reduction
that is possible and so it is less than that of passenger cars.
Ford's MY 2015 F-150 is one example of a light duty manufacturer
who has begun producing high volume vehicles with a significant amount
of mass reduction identified, specifically 250 to 750 lb per vehicle
\351\. The vehicle is an aluminum intensive design and includes an
aluminum cab structure, body panels, and suspension components, as well
as a high strength steel frame and a smaller, lighter and more
efficient engine. The Executive Summary to Ducker Worldwide's 2014
report \352\ states that state that the MY 2015 F-150 contains 1080 lbs
of aluminum with at least half of this being aluminum sheet and
extrusions for body and closures. Ford engine range for its light duty
truck fleet includes a 2.7L EcoBoost V-6. It is possible that the
strategy of aluminum body panels will be applied to the heavy duty F-
250 and F-350 versions when they are redesigned.\353\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\351\ ``2008/9 Blueprint for Sustainability,'' Ford Motor
Company. Available at: https://www.ford.com/go/sustainability (last
accessed February 8, 2010).
\352\ ``2015 North American Light Vehicle Aluminum Content
Study--Executive Summary'', June 2014, https://www.drivealuminum.org/research-resources/PDF/Research/2014/2014-ducker-report (last
accessed February 26, 2015).
\353\ https://www.foxnews.com/leisure/2014/09/30/ford-confirms-increased-aluminum-use-on-next-gen-super-duty-pickups/.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
EPA recently completed a multi-year study with FEV North America,
Inc. on the lightweighting of a light-duty pickup truck, a 2011 GMC
Silverado, titled ``Mass Reduction and Cost Analysis -Light-Duty Pickup
Trucks Model Years 2020-2025.'' \354\ Results contain a cost curve for
various mass reduction percentages with the main solution being
evaluated for a 21.4 percent (511 kg/1124 lb) mass reduction resulting
in an increased direct incremental manufacturing cost of $2228. In
addition, the report outlines the compounding effect that occurs in a
vehicle with performance requirements including hauling and towing.
Secondary mass evaluation was performed on a component level based on
an overall 20 percent vehicle mass reduction. Results revealed 84 kg of
the 511 kg, or 20 percent, were from secondary mass reduction.
Information on this study is summarized in SAE paper 2015-01-0559. DOT
has also sponsored an on-going pickup truck lightweighting project.
This project uses a more recent baseline vehicle, a MY 2014 GMC
Silverado, and the project will be finished by early 2016. Both
projects will be utilized for the light-duty GHG and CAFE Midterm
Evaluation mass reduction baseline characterization and may be used to
update assumptions of mass reduction for HD pickups and vans for the
final Phase 2 rulemaking.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\354\ ``Mass Reduction and Cost Analysis--Light-Duty Pickup
Trucks Model Years 2020-2025'', FEV, North America, Inc., April
2015, Document no. EPA-420-R-15-006.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
In order to determine if technologies identified on light duty
trucks are applicable to heavy-duty pickups, EPA also contracted with
FEV North America, Inc. to perform a scaling study in order to evaluate
the technologies identified for the light-duty truck would be
applicable for a heavy-duty pickup truck, in this study a Silverado
2500, a Mercedes Sprinter and a Renault Master. This report is
currently being drafted and will be peer reviewed and finalized between
the proposed rule and the final rule making. The specific results will
be presented in the final rulemaking (FRM) and may be used to update
assumptions of mass reduction for the FRM.
The RIA for this rulemaking shows that mass reduction is assumed to
be part of the strategy for compliance for HD pickups and vans. The
assumptions of mass reduction for HD pickups and vans as used in this
analysis were taken from the recent light-duty fuel economy/GHG
rulemaking for light-duty pickup trucks, though they may be updated for
the FRM based upon the on-going EPA and NHTSA lightweighting studies as
well as other information received in the interim. The cost and
effectiveness assumptions for mass reduction technology are described
in the RIA.
(ii) Low Rolling Resistance Tires
Tire rolling resistance is the frictional loss associated mainly
with the energy dissipated in the deformation of the tires under load
and thus influences fuel efficiency and CO2 emissions. Other
tire design characteristics (e.g., materials, construction, and tread
design) influence durability, traction (both wet and dry grip), vehicle
handling, and ride comfort in addition to rolling resistance. A typical
LRR tire's attributes would include: Increased tire inflation pressure,
material changes, and tire construction with less hysteresis, geometry
changes (e.g., reduced aspect ratios), and reduction in sidewall and
tread deflection. These changes would generally be accompanied with
[[Page 40355]]
additional changes to suspension tuning and/or suspension design.
(iii) Aerodynamic Drag Reduction
Many factors affect a vehicle's aerodynamic drag and the resulting
power required to move it through the air. While these factors change
with air density and the square and cube of vehicle speed,
respectively, the overall drag effect is determined by the product of
its frontal area and drag coefficient, Cd. Reductions in these
quantities can therefore reduce fuel consumption and CO2
emissions. Although frontal areas tend to be relatively similar within
a vehicle class (mostly due to market-competitive size requirements),
significant variations in drag coefficient can be observed. Significant
changes to a vehicle's aerodynamic performance may need to be
implemented during a redesign (e.g., changes in vehicle shape).
However, shorter-term aerodynamic reductions, with a somewhat lower
effectiveness, may be achieved through the use of revised exterior
components (typically at a model refresh in mid-cycle) and add-on
devices that currently being applied. The latter list would include
revised front and rear fascias, modified front air dams and rear
valances, addition of rear deck lips and underbody panels, and lower
aerodynamic drag exterior mirrors.
(6) What Are the Projected Technology Effectiveness Values and Costs
The assessment of the technology effectiveness and costs was
determined from a combination of sources. First an assessment was
performed by SwRI under contract with the agencies to determine the
effectiveness and costs on several technologies that were generally not
considered in the Phase 1 GHG rule time frame. Some of the technologies
were common with the light-duty assessment but the effectiveness and
costs of individual technologies were appropriately adjusted to match
the expected effectiveness and costs when implemented in a heavy-duty
application. Finally, the agencies performed extensive outreach to
suppliers of engine, transmission and vehicle technologies applicable
to heavy-duty applications to get industry input on cost and
effectiveness of potential GHG and fuel consumption reducing
technologies.
To achieve the levels of the proposed standards for gasoline and
diesel powered heavy-duty vehicles, a combination of the technologies
previously discussed would be required respective to unique gasoline
and diesel technologies and their challenges. Although some of the
technologies may already be implemented in a portion of heavy-duty
vehicles, none of the technologies discussed are considered ubiquitous
in the heavy-duty fleet. Also, as would be expected, the available test
data show that some vehicle models would not need the full complement
of available technologies to achieve the proposed standards.
Furthermore, many technologies can be further improved (e.g.,
aerodynamic improvements) from today's best levels, and so allow for
compliance without needing to apply a technology that a manufacturer
might deem less desirable.
Technology costs for HD pickups and vans are shown in Table VI-4.
These costs reflect direct and indirect costs to the vehicle
manufacturer for the 2021 model year. See Chapter 2 of the Draft RIA
for a more complete description of the basis of these costs.
Table VI-4--Technology Costs for HD Pickups & Vans Inclusive of Indirect
Cost Markups for MY2021 (2012$)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Technology Gasoline Diesel
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Engine changes to accommodate low friction $6 $6
lubes........................................
Engine friction reduction--level 1............ 116 116
Engine friction reduction--level 2............ 254 254
Dual cam phasing.............................. 183 183
Cylinder deactivation......................... 196 N/A
Stoichiometric gasoline direct injection...... 451 N/A
Turbo improvements............................ N/A 16
Cooled EGR.................................... 373 373
Turbocharging & downsizing\a\................. 671 N/A
``Right-sized'' diesel from larger diesel..... N/A 0
8s automatic transmission (increment to 6s 457 457
automatic transmission)......................
Improved accessories--level 1................. 82 82
Improved accessories--level 2................. 132 132
Low rolling resistance tires--level 1......... 10 10
Passive aerodynamic improvements (aero 1)..... 51 51
Passive plus Active aerodynamic improvements 230 230
(aero2)......................................
Electric (or electro/hydraulic) power steering 151 151
Mass reduction (10% on a 6500 lb vehicle)..... 318 318
Driveline friction reduction.................. 139 139
Stop-start (no regenerative braking).......... 539 539
Mild HEV...................................... 2,730 2,730
Strong HEV without inclusion of any engine 6,779 6,779
changes......................................
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note:
\a\ Cost to downsize from a V8 OHC to a V6 OHC engine with twin turbos.
As noted above, the CAFE model works by adding technologies in an
incremental fashion to each particular vehicle in a manufacturer's
fleet until that fleet complies with the imposed standards. It does
this by following a predefined set of decision trees whereby the
particular vehicle is placed on the appropriate decision tree and it
follows the predefined progression of technology available on that
tree. At each step along the tree, a decision is made regarding the
cost of a given technology relative to what already exists on the
vehicle along with the fuel consumption improvement it provides
relative to the fuel consumption at the current location on the tree,
prior to deciding whether to take that next step on the tree or remain
in the current location. Because the model works in this way, the input
files must be structured to provide costs and effectiveness values for
each technology
[[Page 40356]]
relative to whatever technologies have been added in earlier steps
along the tree. Table VI-5 presents the cost and effectiveness values
used in the CAFE model input files.
Table VI-5--CAFE Model Input Values for Cost & Effectiveness for Given Technologies \a\
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Incremental cost (2012$) \a\ \b\
Technology FC savings (%) --------------------------------------
2021 2025 2027
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Improved Lubricants and Engine Friction Reduction....... 1.60 24 24 23
Coupled Cam Phasing (SOHC).............................. 3.82 48 43 39
Dual Variable Valve Lift (SOHC)......................... 2.47 42 37 34
Cylinder Deactivation (SOHC)............................ 3.70 34 30 27
Intake Cam Phasing (DOHC)............................... 0.00 48 43 39
Dual Cam Phasing (DOHC)................................. 3.82 46 40 37
Dual Variable Valve Lift (DOHC)......................... 2.47 42 37 34
Cylinder Deactivation (DOHC)............................ 3.70 34 30 27
Stoichiometric Gasoline Direct Injection (OHC).......... 0.50 71 61 56
Cylinder Deactivation (OHV)............................. 3.90 216 188 172
Variable Valve Actuation (OHV).......................... 6.10 54 47 43
Stoichiometric Gasoline Direct Injection (OHV).......... 0.50 71 61 56
Engine Turbocharging and Downsizing:
Small Gasoline Engines.............................. 8.00 518 441 407
Medium Gasoline Engines............................. 8.00 -12 -62 -44
Large Gasoline Engines.............................. 8.00 623 522 456
Cooled Exhaust Gas Recirculation........................ 3.04 382 332 303
Cylinder Deactivation on Turbo/downsized Eng............ 1.70 33 29 26
Lean-Burn Gasoline Direct Injection..................... 4.30 1,758 1,485 1,282
Improved Diesel Engine Turbocharging.................... 2.51 22 19 18
Engine Friction & Parasitic Reduction:
Small Diesel Engines................................ 3.50 269 253 213
Medium Diesel Engines............................... 3.50 345 325 273
Large Diesel Engines................................ 3.50 421 397 334
Downsizing of Diesel Engines (V6 to I-4)................ 11.10 0 0 0
8-Speed Automatic Transmission \c\...................... 5.00 482 419 382
Electric Power Steering................................. 1.00 160 144 130
Improved Accessories (Level 1).......................... 0.93 93 83 75
Improved Accessories (Level 2).......................... 0.93 57 54 46
Stop-Start System....................................... 1.10 612 517 446
Integrated Starter-Generator............................ 3.20 1,040 969 760
Strong Hybrid Electric Vehicle.......................... 17.20 3,038 2,393 2,133
Mass Reduction (5%)..................................... 1.50 0.28 0.24 0.21
Mass Reduction (additional 5%).......................... 1.50 0.87 0.75 0.66
Reduced Rolling Resistance Tires........................ 1.10 10 9 9
Low-Drag Brakes......................................... 0.40 106 102 102
Driveline Friction Reduction............................ 0.50 153 137 124
Aerodynamic Improvements (10%).......................... 0.70 58 52 47
Aerodynamic Improvements (add'l 10%).................... 0.70 193 182 153
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Notes:
\a\ Values for other model years available in CAFE model input files available at NHTSA Web site.
\b\ For mass reduction, cost reported on mass basis (per pound of curb weight reduction).
\c\ 8 speed automatic transmission costs include costs for high efficiency gearbox and aggressive shift logic
whereas those costs were kept separate in prior analyses.
(7) Summary of Alternatives Analysis
The major outputs of the CAFE model analysis are summarized in
Table VI-6 and Table VI-7 below for the flat and dynamic baselines,
respectively. For a more detailed analysis of the alternatives, please
refer to Section D below as well as the draft RIA.
Table VI-6--Summary of HD Pickup and Van Alternatives' Analysis--Method A Using the Flat Baseline \a\
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Alternative 2 3 4 5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Annual Standard Increase........................ 2.0%/y 2.5%/y 3.5%/y 4.0%/y
Stringency Increase through MY.................. 2025 2027 2025 2025
Total Stringency Increase................... 9.6% 16.2% 16.3% 18.5%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Average Fuel Economy (miles per gallon)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Required........................................ 19.05 20.58 20.58 21.14
Achieved........................................ 19.12 20.58 20.83 21.32
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
[[Page 40357]]
Average Fuel Consumption (gallons/100 mi.)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Required........................................ 5.25 4.86 4.86 4.73
Achieved........................................ 5.23 4.86 4.80 4.69
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Average Greenhouse Gas Emissions (g/mi)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Required........................................ 495 458 458 446
Achieved........................................ 493 458 453 442
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Incremental Technology Cost (vs. No-Action)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Average ($/vehicle) \b\......................... 700 1,324 1,804 2,135
Payback period (m) \b\.......................... 24 26 34 36
Total ($m).................................. 529 1,001 1,363 1,614
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Benefit-Cost Summary, MYs 2021-2030 ($billion) \c\
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Fuel Savings (bil. gal.)........................ 6.1 10.1 11.9 13.3
CO2 Reduction (mmt)............................. 73 118 139 155
Total Social Cost........................... 3.3 5.6 8.7 10.2
Total Social Benefit........................ 18.4 29.0 34.4 37.9
Net Social Benefit.......................... 15.1 23.4 25.7 27.7
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Notes:
\a\ For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less
dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
\b\ Values also used in Method B.
\c\ At a 3% discount rate.
Table VI-7--Summary of HD Pickup and Van Alternatives' Analysis--Method A Using the Dynamic Baseline \a\
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Alternative 2 3 4 5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Annual Standard Increase........................ 2.0%/y 2.5%/y 3.5%/y 4.0%/y
Stringency Increase through MY.................. 2025 2027 2025 2025
Total Stringency Increase................... 9.6% 16.2% 16.3% 18.5%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Average Fuel Economy (miles per gallon)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Required........................................ 19.04 20.57 20.57 21.14
Achieved........................................ 19.14 20.61 20.83 21.27
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Average Fuel Consumption (gallons/100 mi.)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Required........................................ 5.25 4.86 4.86 4.73
Achieved........................................ 5.22 4.85 4.80 4.70
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Average Greenhouse Gas Emissions (g/mi)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Required........................................ 495 458 458 446
Achieved........................................ 491 458 453 444
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Incremental Technology Cost (vs. No-Action)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Average ($/vehicle) \b\......................... 578 1,348 1,655 2,080
Payback period (m) \b\.......................... 25 31 34 38
Total ($m).................................. 437 1,019 1,251 1,572
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Benefit-Cost Summary, MYs 2021-2030 ($billion) \c\
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Fuel Savings (bil. gal.)........................ 5.0 8.9 10.5 11.9
CO2 Reduction (mmt)............................. 59 104 122 139
Total Social Cost........................... 3.3 6.8 9.5 13.0
Total Social Benefit........................ 14.3 23.6 28.2 32.8
Net Social Benefit.......................... 11.0 16.8 18.7 19.8
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Notes:
\a\ For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less
dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
\b\ Values also used in Method B.
\c\ At a 3% discount rate.
[[Page 40358]]
In general, the proposed standards are projected to cause
manufacturers to produce HD pickups and vans that are lighter, more
aerodynamic, and more technologically complex across all the
alternatives, while social benefits continue to increase across all
alternatives. As shown, there is a major difference between the
relatively small improvements in required fuel consumption and average
incremental technology cost between the alternatives, suggesting that
the challenge of improving fuel consumption and CO2
emissions accelerates as stringency increases (i.e., that there may be
a ``knee'' in the dependence of the challenge and on the stringency).
Despite the fact that the required average fuel consumption level only
changes by 3 percent between Alternative 4 and Alternative 5, average
technology cost increases by more than 25 percent.
Note further that the difference in estimated costs, effectiveness,
degree of technology penetration required, and overall benefits do not
vary significantly under either the flat or dynamic baseline
assumptions. The agencies view these results as corroborative of the
basic reasonableness of the approach proposed.
(8) Consistency of the Proposed Standards With the Agencies' Respective
Legal Authorities
Based on the information currently before the agencies, we believe
that Alternative 3 would be maximum feasible and appropriate for this
segment for the model years in question. EPA believes this reflects a
reasonable consideration of the statutory factors of technology
effectiveness, feasibility, cost, lead time, and safety for purposes of
CAA sections 202 (a)(1) and (2). NHTSA believes this proposal is
maximum feasible under EISA. The agencies have projected a compliance
path for the proposed standards showing aggressive implementation of
technologies that the agencies consider to be available in the time
frame of these rules. Under this approach, manufacturers are expected
to implement these technologies at aggressive adoption rates on
essentially all vehicles across this sector by 2027 model year. In the
case of several of these technologies, adoption rates are projected to
approach 100 percent. This includes a combination of engine,
transmission and vehicle technologies as described in this section
across every vehicle. The proposal also is premised on less aggressive
penetration of particular advanced technologies, including strong
hybrid electric vehicles.
We project the proposed standards to be achievable within known
design cycles, and we believe these standards would allow different
paths to compliance in addition to the one we outline and cost here. As
discussed below and throughout this analysis, our proposal places a
higher value on maintaining functionality and capability of vehicles
designed for work (versus light-duty), and on the assurance of in use
reliability and market acceptance of new technology, particularly in
initial model years of the program. Nevertheless, it may be possible to
have additional adoption rates of the technologies than we project so
that further reductions could be available at reasonable cost and cost-
effectiveness.
Alternative 4 is also discussed in detail below because the
agencies believe it has the potential to be the maximum feasible
alternative, and otherwise appropriate. The agencies could decide to
adopt Alternative 4, in whole or in part, in the final rule. In
particular, the agencies believe Alternative 4, which would achieve the
same stringency as the proposed standards with two years less lead
time, merits serious consideration. However, the agencies are uncertain
whether the projected technologies and market penetration rates that
could be necessary to meet the stringencies would be practicable within
the lead time provided in Alternative 4. The proposed standards are
generally designed to achieve the levels of fuel consumption and GHG
stringency that Alternative 4 would achieve, but with several years of
additional lead time, meaning that manufacturers could, in theory,
apply new technology at a more gradual pace and with greater
flexibility. The agencies seek comment on these alternatives, including
their corresponding lead times.
Alternative 4 is based on a year-over-year increase in stringency
of 3.5 percent in MYs 2021-2025 whereas the proposed preferred
Alternative 3 is based on a 2.5 percent year-over-year increase in
stringency in MY 2021-2027. The agencies project that the higher rate
of increase in stringency associated with Alternative 4 and the shorter
lead time would necessitate the use of a different technology mix under
Alternative 4 compared to Alternative 3. Alternative 3 would achieve
the same final stringency increase as Alternative 4 at about 80 percent
of the average per-vehicle cost increase, and without the expected
deployment of more advanced technology at high penetration levels. In
particular, under the agencies' primary analysis that includes the use
of strong hybrids manufacturers are estimated to deploy strong hybrids
in approximately 8 percent of new vehicles (in MY2027) under
Alternative 3, compared to 12 percent under Alternative 4 (in MY 2025).
Less aggressive electrification technologies also appear on 33 percent
of new vehicles simulated to be produced in MY2027 under Alternative 4,
but are not necessary under Alternative 3. Additionally, it is
important to note that due to the shorter lead time of Alternative 4,
there are fewer vehicle refreshes and redesigns during the phase-in
period of MY 2021-2025. While the CAFE model's algorithm accounts for
manufacturers' consideration of upcoming stringency changes and credit
carry-forward, the steeper ramp-up of the standard in Alternative 4,
coupled with the five-year credit life, results in a prediction that
manufacturers would take less cost-effective means to comply with the
standards compared with the proposed alternative 3 phase-in period of
MY 2021-2027. For example, the model predicts that some manufacturers
would not implement any amount of strong hybrids on their vans during
the 2021-2025 timeframe and instead would implement less effective
technologies such as mild hybrids at higher rates than what would
otherwise have been required if they had implemented a small percentage
of strong hybrids. Whereas for Alternative 3, the longer, shallower
phase-in of the standards allows for more compliance flexibility and
closer matching with the vehicle redesign cycles, which (as noted
above) can be up to ten years for HD vans.
There is also a high degree of sensitivity to the estimated
effectiveness levels of individual technologies. At high penetration
rates of all technologies on a vehicle, the result of a reduced
effectiveness of even a single technology could be non-compliance with
the standards. If the standards do not account for this uncertainty,
there would be a real possibility that a manufacturer who followed the
exact technology path we project would not meet their target because a
technology performed slightly differently in their application. NHTSA
has explored this uncertainty, among others, in the uncertainty
analysis described in Section D below.
As discussed above, the proposed Alternative 3 standards and the
Alternative 4 standards are based on the application of the
technologies described in this section. These technologies are
projected to be available within the lead time provided under
Alternative 3--i.e., by MY 2027,
[[Page 40359]]
as discussed in Draft RIA Chapter 2.6. The proposed standards and
Alternative 4 would require a relatively aggressive implementation
schedule of most of these technologies during the program phase-in.
Heavy-duty pickups and vans would need to have a combination of many
individual technologies to achieve the proposed standards. The proposed
standards are projected to yield significant emission and fuel
consumption reductions without requiring a large segment transition to
strong hybrids, a technology that while successful in light-duty
passenger cars, cross-over vehicles and SUVs, may impact vehicle work
capabilities \355\ and have questionable customer acceptance in a large
portion of this segment dedicated to towing.\356\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\355\ Hybrid batteries, motors and electronics generally add
weight to a vehicle and require more space which can result in
conflicts with payload weight and volume objectives.
\356\ Hybrid electric systems are not sized for situations when
vehicles are required to do trailer towing where the combined weight
of vehicle and trailer is 2 to 4 times that of the vehicle alone.
During these conditions, the hybrid system will have reduced
effectiveness. Sizing the system for trailer towing is prohibitive
with respect to hybrid component required sizes and the availability
of locations to place larger components like batteries.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table VI-8 below shows that the agencies' analysis estimates that
the most cost-effective way to meet the requirements of Alternative 3
would be to use strong hybrids in up to 9.9 percent of pickups and 5.5
percent of vans on an industry-wide basis whereas Alternative 4 shows
strong hybrids on up to 19 percent of pickups. The analysis shows that
the two years of additional lead time provided by the proposed
Alternative 3 would provide manufacturers with a better opportunity to
maximize the use of more cost effective technologies over time thereby
reducing the need for strong hybrids which may be particularly
challenging for this market segment. The agencies seek comment on the
potential use of technologies in response to Alternatives 3 and 4, as
well as the corresponding lead times proposed in each alternative.
Table VI-8--CAFE Model Technology Adoption Rates for Proposal and Alternative 4 Summary--Flat Baseline
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Proposal (2.5% per year) 2021 to Alternative 4 (3.5% per year) 2021
2027 to 2025
Technology ------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pickup trucks Pickup trucks
(%) Vans (%) (%) Vans (%)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Low friction lubricants................ 100 100 100 100
Engine friction reduction.............. 100 100 100 100
Cylinder deactivation.................. 22 19 22 19
Variable valve timing.................. 22 82 22 82
Gasoline direct injection.............. 0 63 0 80
Diesel engine improvements............. 60 3.6 60 3.6
Turbo downsized engine................. 0 63 0 63
8 speed transmission................... 98 92 98 92
Low rolling resistance tires........... 100 92 100 59
Aerodynamic drag reduction............. 100 100 100 100
Mass reduction and materials........... 100 100 100 100
Electric power steering................ 100 49 100 46
Improved accessories................... 100 87 100 36
Low drag brakes........................ 100 45 100 45
Stop/start engine systems.............. 0 0 15 1.5
Mild hybrid............................ 0 0 29 15
Strong hybrid.......................... 9.9 5.5 19 0
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
As discussed earlier, the agencies also conducted a sensitivity
analysis to determine a compliance pathway where no strong hybrids
would be selected. Although the agencies project that strong hybrids
may be the most cost effective approach, manufacturers may select
another compliance path. This no strong hybrid analysis included the
use of downsized turbocharged engine in vans currently equipped with
large V-8 engines. Turbo-downsized engines were not allowed on 6+ liter
gasoline vans in the primary analysis because the agencies sought to
preserve consumer choice with respect to vans that have large V-8s for
towing. However, given the recent introduction of vans with
considerable towing capacity and turbo-downsized engines, the agencies
believe it would be feasible for vans in the time-frame of these
proposed rules. Table VI-9 below reflects the difference in penetration
rates of technologies for the proposal and Alternative 4 if strong
hybridization is not chosen as a technology pathway. For simplicity,
pickup trucks and vans are combined into a single industry wide
penetration rate. While strong hybridization may provide the most cost
effective path for a manufacturer to comply with the Proposal or
Alternative 4, there are other means to comply with the requirements,
mainly a 20 percent penetration rate of mild hybrids for the Proposal
or a 66 percent penetration of mild hybrids for Alternative 4. The
modeling of both alternatives predicts a 1 to 4 percent penetration of
stop/start engine systems.
The table also shows that when strong hybrids are used as a pathway
to compliance, penetration rates of all hybrid technologies increase
substantially between the proposal and Alternative 4. The analysis
predicts an increase in strong hybrid penetration from 8 percent to 12
percent, a 23 percent penetration of mild hybrids and a 10 percent
penetration stop/start engine systems for Alternative 4 compared with
the proposal. Also, by having the final standards apply in MY2027
instead of MY2025, the proposal is not premised on use of any mild
hybrids or stop/start engine systems to achieve the same level of
stringency as Alternative 4.
[[Page 40360]]
Table VI-9--CAFE Model Technology Adoption Rates for Proposal and Alternative 4 Combined Fleet and Fuels
Summary--Flat Baseline
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Proposal (2.5% per year) 2021 to Alternative 4 (3.5% per year)
2027 2021 to 2025
Technology ------------------------------------------------------------------------
With strong Without strong With strong Without strong
hybrids (%) hybrids (%) hybrids (%) hybrids (%)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Low friction lubricants................ 100 100 100 100
Engine friction reduction.............. 100 100 100 100
Cylinder deactivation.................. 21 22 21 14
Variable valve timing.................. 46 46 46 46
Gasoline direct injection.............. 25 45 31 45
Diesel engine improvements............. 38 38 38 38
Turbo downsized engine \a\............. 25 31 25 31
8 speed transmission................... 96 96 96 96
Low rolling resistance tires........... 97 97 84 84
Aerodynamic drag reduction............. 100 100 100 100
Mass reduction and materials........... 100 100 100 100
Electric power steering................ 80 92 79 79
Improved accessories................... 67 77 75 75
Low drag brakes........................ 78 93 78 78
Stop/start engine systems.............. 0 1 10 4
Mild hybrid............................ 0 20 23 66
Strong hybrid.......................... 8 0 12 0
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note:
\a\ The 6+ liter V8 vans were allowed to convert to turbocharged and downsized engines in the ``without strong
hybrid'' analysis for both the Proposal and the Alternative 4 to provide a compliance path.
Table VI-10 and Table VI-11 below provide a further breakdown of
projected technology adoption rates specifically for gasoline-fueled
pickups and vans which shows potential adoption rates of strong hybrids
for each vehicle type. Strong hybrids are not projected to be used in
diesel applications. The Alternative 4 analysis shows the use of strong
hybrids in up to 48 percent of gasoline pickups, depending on the mix
of strong and mild hybrids, and stop/start engine systems in 20 percent
of gasoline pickups (the largest gasoline HD segment). It is important
to note that this analysis only shows one pathway to compliance, and
the manufacturers may make other decisions, e.g., changing the mix of
strong vs. mild hybrids, or applying electrification technologies to HD
vans instead. The technology adoption rates projected for gasoline
pickups and gasoline vans due to the proposed Alternative 3 and
Alternative 4 are shown in Table VI-10 and Table VI-11, respectively.
Table VI-10--CAFE Model Technology Adoption Rates for Proposal and Alternative 4 on Gasoline Pickup Trucks--Flat
Baseline
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Proposal (2.5% per year) 2021 to 2027 Alternative 4 (3.5% per year) 2021 to
----------------------------------------- 2025
Technology ---------------------------------------
With strong hybrids Without strong With strong hybrids Without strong
(%) hybrids (%) (%) hybrids (%)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Low friction lubricants........ 100................. 100 100................. 100
Engine friction reduction...... 100................. 100 100................. 100
Cylinder deactivation.......... 56.................. 56 56.................. 56
Variable valve timing.......... 56.................. 56 56.................. 56
Gasoline direct injection...... 0................... 56 0................... 56
8 speed transmission........... 100................. 100 100................. 100
Low rolling resistance tires... 100................. 100 100................. 100
Aerodynamic drag reduction..... 100................. 100 100................. 100
Mass reduction and materials... 100................. 100 100................. 100
Electric power steering........ 100................. 100 100................. 100
Improved accessories........... 100................. 100 100................. 100
Low drag brakes................ 100................. 100 100................. 100
Driveline friction reduction... 44.................. 68 68.................. 68
Stop/start engine systems...... 0................... 0 20.................. 0
Mild hybrid.................... Up to 42 \a\........ 0% 18-86 \a\........... 86
Strong hybrid.................. Up to 25............ ................. Up to 48............ ................
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note:
\a\ Depending on extent of strong hybrid adoption as hybrid technologies can replace each other, however they
will have different effectiveness and costs.
[[Page 40361]]
Table VI-11--CAFE Model Technology Adoption Rates for Proposal and Alternative 4 on Gasoline Vans--Flat Baseline
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Proposal (2.5% per year) 2021 to 2027 Alternative 4 (3.5% per year) 2021
------------------------------------------- to 2025
Technology -----------------------------------
With strong hybrids (%) Without strong With strong Without strong
hybrids (%) hybrids (%) hybrids (%)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Low friction lubricants.......... 100.................... 100 100 100
Engine friction reduction........ 100.................... 100 100 100
Cylinder deactivation............ 23..................... 3 23 3
Variable valve timing............ 100.................... 100 100 100
Gasoline direct injection........ 57..................... 97 97 97
Turbo downsized engine\ a\....... 77..................... 97 77 97
8 speed transmission............. 97..................... 97 97 97
Low rolling resistance tires..... 100.................... 100 60 60
Aerodynamic drag reduction....... 100.................... 100 100 100
Mass reduction and materials..... 100.................... 100 100 100
Electric power steering.......... 55..................... 85 53 53
Improved accessories............. 23..................... 38 43 43
Low drag brakes.................. 53..................... 89 53 100
Stop/start engine systems........ 0...................... 0 2 0
Mild hybrid...................... Up to 13 \b\........... 13 18 40
Strong hybrid.................... Up to 7................ ................ 0 ................
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Notes:
\a\ The 6+ liter V8 vans were allowed to convert to turbocharged and downsized engines in the ``without strong
hybrid'' analysis for both the Proposal and the Alternative 4 to provide a compliance path.
\b\ Depending on extent of strong hybrid adoption as hybrid technologies can replace each other, however they
will have different effectiveness and costs.
The tables above show that many technologies would be at or
potentially approach 100 percent adoption rates according to the
analysis. If certain technologies turn out to be not well suited for
certain vehicle models or less effective that projected, other
technology pathways would be needed. The additional lead time provided
by the proposed Alternative 3 reduces these concerns because
manufacturers would have more flexibility to implement their compliance
strategy and are more likely to contain a product redesign cycle
necessary for many new technologies to be implemented.
GM may have a particular challenge meeting new standards compared
to other manufacturers because their production consists of a larger
portion of gasoline-powered vehicles and because they continue to offer
a traditional style HD van equipped only with a V-8 engine. Under the
strong hybrid analysis for Alternative 3, GM is projected to apply
strong hybrids to 46 percent of their HD gasoline pickups and 17
percent their HD gasoline vans. Under Alternative 4, GM is projected to
apply a combination of 53 percent strong and 43 percent mild hybrids to
their HD gasoline pickups and 44 percent mild hybrids to their HD vans.
The no strong hybrid analysis shows that GM could comply without strong
hybrids based on the use of turbo downsizing on all of their HD
gasoline vans to fully comply with either Alternative 3 or Alternative
4. As modeled, Alternative 4 would also require GM to additionally
utilize several other technologies such as higher penetration of mild
hybridization. If GM were to choose to maintain a V-8 version of their
current HD van and not fully utilize turbo downsizing, another
compliance path such as some use of strong hybrids would be needed.
This would also be the case if GM chose not to fully utilize some other
technologies under Alterative 4 as well.
In addition to the possibility of an increased level of
hybridization, the agencies are also requesting comment on other
possible outcomes associated especially with Alternative 4; in
particular, the possibility of traditional van designs or other
products being discontinued. Several manufacturers now offer or are
moving to European style HD vans. Ford, for example, has discontinued
its E-series body on frame HD van and has replaced it with the unibody
Transit van for MY 2015. While other manufacturers have replaced their
traditional style vans with new European style van designs, GM
continues to offer the traditional full frame style van with eight
cylinder gasoline engines for higher towing capability (up to 16,000 lb
GCWR). Typically, the European style vans are equipped with smaller
engines offering better fuel consumption and lower CO2
emissions but with reduced towing capability, similar to light-duty
trucks (though Ford offers a Transit van with a GCWR of 15,000 lb).
The agencies request comment on the potential for Alternative 4 in
particular to incentivize GM to discontinue its current traditional
style van and replace it with an as yet to be designed European style
van similar to its competitor's products. See Bluewater Network v. EPA,
370 F. 3d 1, 22 (D.C. Cir. 2004) (standard implementing technology-
forcing provision of CAA remanded to EPA for an explanation of why the
standard was not based on discontinuation of a particular model);
International Harvester v. Ruckelshaus, 478 F. 2d 615, 640-41 (D.C.
Cir. 1973) (``We are inclined to agree with the Administrator that as
long as feasible technology permits the demand for new passenger
automobiles to be generally met, the basic requirements of the Act
would be satisfied, even though this might occasion fewer models and a
more limited choice of engine types''). Such an outcome could limit
consumer choice both on the style of van available in the marketplace
and on the range of capabilities of the vehicles available. The
agencies have not attempted to cost out this possible compliance path.
The agencies request comments on the likelihood of this type of
redesign as a possible outcome of Alternative 3 and Alternative 4, and
whether it would be appropriate. We are especially interested in
comments on the potential
[[Page 40362]]
impact on consumer choice and the costs associated with this type of
wholesale vehicle model replacement.
In addition, another potential outcome of Alternative 4 would be
that manufacturers could change the product utility. For example,
although GM's traditional van discussed above currently offers similar
towing capacity as gasoline pickups, GM could choose to replace engines
designed for those towing capacities with small gas or diesel engines.
The agencies request comment on the potential for Alternative 4 to lead
to this type of compliance approach.
The agencies also request comment on the possibility that
Alternative 4 could lead to increased dieselization of the HD pickup
and van fleet. Dieselization is not a technology path the agencies
included in the analysis for the Phase 1 rule or the Phase 2 proposal
but it is something the agencies could consider as a technology path
under Alternative 4. As discussed earlier, diesel engines are
fundamentally more efficient than gasoline engines providing the same
power (even gasoline engines with the technologies discussed above).
Alternative 4 could result in manufacturers switching from gasoline
engines to diesel engines in certain challenging segments. However,
while technologically feasible, this pathway could cause a distortion
in consumer choices and significantly increase the cost of those
vehicles, particularly considering Alternative 4 is projected to
require penetration of some form of hybridization. Also, if
dieselization occurs by manufacturers equipping vehicles with larger
diesel engines rather than ``right-sized'' engines, the towing
capability of the vehicles could increase resulting in higher work
factors for the vehicles, higher targets, and reduced program benefits.
The issue of surplus towing capability is also discussed above in VI.B.
(1).
The technologies associated with meeting the proposed standards are
estimated to add costs to heavy-duty pickups and vans as shown in Table
VI-12 and Table VI-13 for the flat baseline and dynamic baseline,
respectively. These costs are the average fleet-wide incremental
vehicle costs relative to a vehicle meeting the MY2018 standard in each
of the model years shown. Reductions associated with these costs and
technologies are considerable, estimated at a 13.6 percent reduction of
fuel consumption and CO2eq emissions from the MY 2018
baseline for gasoline and diesel engine equipped vehicles.\357\ A
detailed cost and cost effectiveness analysis for both the proposed
preferred Alternative 3 are provided in Section IX and Chapter 7.1 of
the draft RIA. As shown by the analysis, the long-term cost
effectiveness of the proposal is similar to that of the Phase 1 HD
pickup and van standards and also falls within the range of the cost
effectiveness for Phase 2 standards proposed for the other HD
sectors.\358\ The cost of controls would be fully recovered by the
operator due to the associated fuel savings, with a payback period
somewhere in the third year of ownership, as shown in Section IX.L of
this preamble. Consistent with the agencies' respective statutory
authorities under 42 U.S.C. 7521(a) and 49 U.S.C. 32902(k)(2), and
based on the agencies' analysis, EPA and NHTSA are proposing
Alternative 3. The agencies seek comment on Alternative 4, as we may
seek to adopt it in whole or in part in the final rule.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\357\ See Table VI-5.
\358\ Analysis using the MOVES model indicates that the cost
effectiveness of these standards is $95 per ton CO2 eq
removed in MY 2030 (Draft RIA Table 7-31), almost identical to the
$90 per ton CO2 eq removed (MY 2030) which the agencies
found to be highly cost effective for these same vehicles in Phase
1. See 76 FR 57228.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
We also show the costs for the potential Alternative 4 standards in
Table VI-14 and Table VI-15. As shown, the costs under Alternative 4
would be significantly higher compared to Alternative 3.
Table VI-12--HD Pickups and Vans Incremental Technology Costs per Vehicle Preferred Alternative vs. Flat Baseline
[2012$]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HD Pickups & Vans....................... $516 $508 $791 $948 $1,161 $1,224 $1,342
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table VI-13--HD Pickups and Vans Incremental Technology Costs per Vehicle Preferred Alternative vs. Dynamic Baseline
[2012$]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HD Pickups & Vans....................... $493 $485 $766 $896 $1,149 $1,248 $1,366
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table VI-14--HD Pickups and Vans Incremental Technology Costs per Vehicle Alternative 4 vs. Flat Baseline
[2012$]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HD Pickups & Vans....................... $1,050 $1,033 $1,621 $1,734 $1,825 $1,808 $1,841
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
[[Page 40363]]
Table VI-15--HD Pickups and Vans Incremental Technology Costs per Vehicle Alternative 4 vs. Dynamic Baseline
[2012$]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HD Pickups & Vans....................... $909 $894 $1,415 $1,532 $1,627 $1,649 $1,684
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
D. DOT CAFE Model Analysis of the Regulatory Alternatives for HD
Pickups and Vans
Considering the establishment of potential HD pickup and van fuel
consumption and GHG standards to follow those already in place through
model year 2018, the agencies evaluated a range of potential regulatory
alternatives. The agencies estimated the extent to which manufacturers
might add fuel-saving and CO2-avoiding technologies under
each regulatory alternative, including the no-action alternative
described in Section X. of this proposal. For HD pickups and vans both
agencies analyzed two no-action alternatives, where one no-action
alternative could be described as a ``flat baseline'' and the other as
a ``dynamic baseline''. Please refer to Section X. of this proposal for
a complete discussion of the assumptions that underlie these baselines.
The agencies then estimated the extent to which additional technology
that would be implemented to meet each regulatory alternative would
incrementally (compared to the no-action alternative) impact costs to
manufacturers and vehicle buyers, physical outcomes such as highway
travel, fuel consumption, and greenhouse gas emissions, and economic
benefits and costs to vehicle owners and society. The remainder of this
section and portions of Sections VII through X present the regulatory
alternatives the agencies have considered, summarize the agencies'
analyses, and explain the agencies' selection of the HD pickup and van
preferred alternative defined by today's proposed standards.
The agencies conducted coordinated and complementary analyses by
employing both DOT's CAFE model and EPA's MOVES model and other
analytical tools to project fuel consumption and GHG emissions impacts
resulting from the proposed standards for HD pickups and vans, against
both the flat and dynamic baselines. In addition to running the DOT
CAFE model to provide per vehicle cost and technology values, NHTSA
also used the model to estimate the full range of impacts for pickups
and vans, including fuel consumption and GHG emissions, including
downstream vehicular emissions as well as emissions from upstream
processes related to fuel production, distribution, and delivery. The
CAFE model applies fuel properties (density and carbon content) to
estimated fuel consumption in order to calculate vehicular
CO2 emissions, applies per-mile emission factors (in this
analysis, from MOVES) to estimated VMT in order to calculate vehicular
CH4 and N2O emissions (as well, as discussed
below, of non-GHG pollutants), and applies per-gallon upstream emission
factors (in this analysis, from GREET) in order to calculate upstream
GHG (and non-GHG) emissions. EPA also ran its MOVES model for all HD
categories, namely tractors and trailers, vocational vehicles and HD
pickups and vans, to develop a consistent set of fuel consumption and
CO2 reductions for all HD categories. The MOVES runs
followed largely the procedures described above, with some differences.
MOVES used the same technology application rates and costs that are
part of the inputs, and used cost per vehicle outputs of the CAFE model
to evaluate the proposed standards for HD pickup trucks and vans. The
agencies note that these two independent analyses of aggregate costs
and benefits both support the proposed standards.
While both agencies fully analyzed the regulatory alternatives
against both baselines, NHTSA considered its primary analysis to be
based on the dynamic baseline, where certain cost-effective
technologies are assumed to be applied by manufacturers to improve fuel
efficiency beyond the Phase 1 requirements in the absence of new Phase
2 standards. On the other hand, EPA considered both baselines and EPA's
less dynamic or flat baseline analysis is presented in Sections VII
through X of this proposal as well as the draft Regulatory Impact
Analysis accompanying this proposal. In Section X both the flat and
dynamic baseline analyses are presented for all of the regulatory
alternatives.
This section provides a discussion of the CAFE model, followed by
the comprehensive results of the CAFE model against the dynamic
baseline to show costs, benefits, and environmental impacts of the
regulatory alternatives for HD pickups and vans. This presentation of
regulatory analysis is consistent with NHTSA's presentation of similar
analyses conducted in support of the agencies joint light-duty vehicle
fuel economy and GHG regulations. The CAFE analysis against the flat
baseline as well as EPA's complementary analysis of GHG impacts, non-
GHG impacts, and economic and other impacts using MOVES is presented in
Sections VII through IX of this proposal, as well as in the draft
Regulatory Impact Analysis accompanying this proposal. These are
presented side-by-side with the agencies' joint analyses of the other
heavy-duty sectors (i.e., tractors, trailers, vocational vehicles). The
presentation of the EPA analyses of HD pickups and vans in these
sections is consistent with the agencies' presentation of similar
analyses conducted as part of the agencies' joint HD Phase 1
regulations and with EPA's presentation of similar analyses conducted
in support of the agencies' joint light-duty vehicle fuel economy and
GHG regulations. The agencies' intention for presenting both of these
complementary and coordinated analyses is to offer interested readers
the opportunity to compare the regulatory alternatives considered for
Phase 2 in both the context of our Phase 1 analytical approaches and
our light-duty vehicle analytical approaches.
(1) Evaluation of Regulatory Alternatives
As discussed in Section C above, the agencies used DOT's CAFE model
to conduct an analysis of potential standards for HD pickups and vans.
The basic operation of the CAFE model was described in section VI.C.2,
so will not be repeated here. However, this section provides additional
detail on the model operation, inputs, assumptions, and outputs.
DOT developed the CAFE model in 2002 to support the 2003 issuance
of CAFE standards for MYs 2005-2007 light trucks. DOT has since
significantly expanded and refined the model, and has applied the model
to support every ensuing CAFE rulemaking;
2006: MYs 2008-2011 light trucks
[[Page 40364]]
2008: MYs 2011-2015 passenger cars and light trucks (final
rule prepared but withheld)
2009: MY 2011 passenger cars and light trucks
2010: MYs 2012-2016 passenger cars and light trucks (joint
rulemaking with EPA)
2012: MYs 2017-2021 passenger cars and light trucks (joint
rulemaking with EPA)
Past analyses conducted using the CAFE model have been subjected to
extensive and detailed review and comment, much of which has informed
the model's expansion and refinement. NHTSA's use of the model was
considered and supported in Center for Biological Diversity v. National
Highway Traffic Safety Admin., 538 F.3d 1172, 1194 (9th Cir. 2008). For
further discussion see 76 FR 57198, and the model has been subjected to
formal peer review and review by the General Accounting Office (GAO)
and National Research Council (NRC). NHTSA makes public the model,
source code, and--except insofar as doing so would compromise
confidential business information (CBI) manufacturers have provided to
NHTSA--all model inputs and outputs underlying published rulemaking
analyses.
This analysis reflects several changes made to the model since
2012, when NHTSA used the model to estimate the effects, costs, and
benefits of final CAFE standards for light-duty vehicles produced
during MYs 2017-2021, and augural standards for MYs 2022-2025. Some of
these changes specifically enable analysis of potential fuel
consumption standards (and, hence, related CO2 emissions
standards harmonized with fuel consumption standards) for heavy-duty
pickups and vans; other changes implement more general improvements to
the model. Key changes include the following:
Expansion and restructuring of model inputs, compliance
calculations, and reporting to accommodate standards for heavy-duty
pickups and vans, including attribute-based standards involving targets
that vary with ``work factor''.
Explicit calculation of test weight, taking into account
test weight ``bins'' and differences in the definition of test weight
for light-duty vehicles (curb weight plus 300 pound) and heavy-duty
pickups and vans (average of GVWR and curb weight).
Procedures to estimate increases in payload when curb
weight is reduced, increases in towing capacity if GVWR is reduced, and
calculation procedures to correspondingly update calculated work
factors.
Expansion of model inputs, procedures, and outputs to
accommodate technologies not included in prior analyses.
Changes to the algorithm used to apply technologies,
enabling more explicit accounting for shared vehicle platforms and
adoption and ``inheritance'' of major engine changes.
Expansion of the Monte Carlo simulation procedures used to
perform probabilistic uncertainty analysis.
These changes are reflected in updated model documentation
available at NHTSA's Web site, the documentation also providing more
information about the model's purpose, scope, structure, design,
inputs, operation, and outputs. DOT invites comment on the updated
model, and in particular, on the updated handling of shared vehicle
platforms, engines, and transmissions, and on the new procedures to
estimate changes to test weight, GVWR, and GCWR as vehicle curb weight
is reduced.
(a) Product Cadence
Past comments on the CAFE model have stressed the importance of
product cadence--i.e., the development and periodic redesign and
freshening of vehicles--in terms of involving technical, financial, and
other practical constraints on applying new technologies, and DOT has
steadily made changes to the model with a view toward accounting for
these considerations. For example, early versions of the model added
explicit ``carrying forward'' of applied technologies between model
years, subsequent versions applied assumptions that most technologies
would be applied when vehicles are freshened or redesigned, and more
recent versions applied assumptions that manufacturers would sometimes
apply technology earlier than ``necessary'' in order to facilitate
compliance with standards in ensuing model years. Thus, for example, if
a manufacturer is expected to redesign many of its products in model
years 2018 and 2023, and the standard's stringency increases
significantly in model year 2021, the CAFE model will estimate the
potential that the manufacturer will add more technology than necessary
for compliance in MY 2018, in order to carry those product changes
forward through the next redesign and contribute to compliance with the
MY 2021 standard.
The model also accommodates estimates of overall limits (expressed
as ``phase-in caps'' in model inputs) on the rates at which
manufacturers' may practicably add technology to their respective
fleets. So, for example, even if a manufacturer is expected to redesign
half of its production in MY 2016, if the manufacturer is not already
producing any strong hybrid electric vehicles (SHEVs), a phase-in cap
can be specified in order to assume that manufacturer will stop
applying SHEVs in MY 2016 once it has done so to at least 3 percent of
its production in that model year.
After the light-duty rulemaking analysis accompanying the 2012
final rule regarding post-2016 CAFE standards and related GHG emissions
standards, DOT staff began work on CAFE model changes expected to
better reflect additional considerations involved with product planning
and cadence. These changes, summarized below, interact with preexisting
model characteristics discussed above.
(b) Platforms and Technology
The term ``platform'' is used loosely in industry, but generally
refers to a common structure shared by a group of vehicle variants. The
degree of commonality varies, with some platform variants exhibiting
traditional ``badge engineering'' where two products are differentiated
by little more than insignias, while other platforms be used to produce
a broad suite of vehicles that bear little outer resemblance to one
another.
Given the degree of commonality between variants of a single
platform, manufacturers do not have complete freedom to apply
technology to a vehicle: while some technologies (e.g. low rolling
resistance tires) are very nearly ``bolt-on'' technologies, others
involve substantial changes to the structure and design of the vehicle,
and therefore necessarily are constant between vehicles that share a
common platform. DOT staff has, therefore, modified the CAFE model such
that all mass reduction and aero technologies are forced to be constant
between variants of a platform. The agencies request comment on the
suitability of this viewpoint, and which technologies can deviate from
one platform variant to another.
Within the analysis fleet, each vehicle is associated with a
specific platform. As the CAFE model applies technology, it first
defines a platform ``leader'' as the vehicle variant of a platform with
the highest technology utilization vehicle of mass reduction and
aerodynamic technologies. As the vehicle applies technologies, it
effectively harmonizes to the highest common denominator of the
platform. If there is a tie, the CAFE model begins applying aerodynamic
and mass reduction technology to the vehicle with the lowest average
sales
[[Page 40365]]
across all available model years. If there remains a tie, the model
begins by choosing the vehicle with the highest average MSRP across all
available model years. The model follows this formulation due to
previous market trends suggesting that many technologies begin
deployment at the high-end, low-volume end of the market as
manufacturers build their confidence and capability in a technology,
and later expand the technology across more mainstream product lines.
In the HD pickup and van market, there is a relatively small amount
of diversity in platforms produced by manufacturers: typically 1-2
truck platforms and 1-2 van platforms. However, accounting for
platforms will take on greater significance in future analyses
involving the light-duty fleet, and the agency requests comments on the
general use of platforms within CAFE rulemaking.
(c) Engine and Transmission Inheritance
In practice, manufacturers are limited in the number of engines and
transmissions that they produce. Typically a manufacturer produces a
number of engines--perhaps six or eight engines for a large
manufacturer--and tunes them for slight variants in output for a
variety of car and truck applications. Manufacturers limit complexity
in their engine portfolio for much the same reason as they limit
complexity in vehicle variants: They face engineering manpower
limitations, and supplier, production and service costs that scale with
the number of parts produced.
In previous usage of the CAFE model, engines and transmissions in
individual models were allowed relative freedom in technology
application, potentially leading to solutions that would, if followed,
involve unaccounted-for costs associated with increased complexity in
the product portfolio. The lack of a constraint in this area allowed
the model to apply different levels of technology to the engine in each
vehicle at the time of redesign or refresh, independent of what was
done to other vehicles using a previously identical engine.
In the current version of the CAFE model, engines and transmissions
that are shared between vehicles must apply the same levels of
technology in all technologies dictated by engine or transmission
inheritance. This forced adoption is referred to as ``engine
inheritance'' in the model documentation.
As with platform-shared technologies, the model first chooses an
``engine leader'' among vehicles sharing the same engine. The leader is
selected first by the vehicle with the lowest average sales across all
available model years. If there is a tie, the vehicle with the highest
average MSRP across model years is chosen. The model applies the same
logic with respect to the application of transmission changes. As with
platforms, this is driven by the concept that vehicle manufacturers
typically deploy new technologies in small numbers prior to deploying
widely across their product lines.
(d) Interactions Between Regulatory Classes
Like earlier versions, the current CAFE model provides for
integrated analysis spanning different regulatory classes, accounting
both for standards that apply separately to different classes and for
interactions between regulatory classes. Light vehicle CAFE standards
are specified separately for passenger cars and light trucks. However,
there is considerable sharing between these two regulatory classes.
Some specific engines and transmissions are used in both passenger cars
and light trucks, and some vehicle platforms span these regulatory
classes. For example, some sport-utility vehicles are offered in 2WD
versions classified as passenger cars and 4WD versions classified as
light trucks. Integrated analysis of manufacturers' passenger car and
light truck fleets provides the ability to account for such sharing and
reduce the likelihood of finding solutions that could involve
impractical levels of complexity in manufacturers' product lines. In
addition, integrated analysis provides the ability to simulate the
potential that manufactures could earn CAFE credits by over complying
with one standard and use those credits toward compliance with the
other standard (i.e., to simulate credit transfers between regulatory
classes).
HD pickups and vans are regulated separately from light-duty
vehicles. While manufacturers cannot transfer credits between light-
duty and MDHD classes, there is some sharing of engineering and
technology between light-duty vehicles and HD pickups and vans. For
example, some passenger vans with GVWR over 8,500 lbs are classified as
medium-duty passenger vehicles (MDPVs) and thus included in
manufacturers' light-duty truck fleets, while cargo vans sharing the
same nameplate are classified as HD vans.
While today's analysis examines the HD pickup and van fleet in
isolation, as a basis for analysis supporting the planned final rule,
the agencies intend to develop an overall analysis fleet spanning both
the light-duty and HD pickup and van fleets. Doing so could show some
technology ``spilling over'' to HD pickups and vans due, for example,
to the application of technology in response to current light-duty
standards. More generally, modeling the two fleets together should tend
to more realistically limit the scope and complexity of estimated
compliance pathways.
The agencies anticipate that the impact of modeling a combined
fleet will primarily arise from engine-transmission inheritance. While
platform sharing between the light-duty and MD pickup and van fleets is
relatively small (MDPVs aside), there are a number of instances of
engine and transmission sharing across the two fleets. When the fleets
are modeled together, the agencies anticipate that engine inheritance
will be implemented across the combined fleet, and therefore only one
engine-transmission leader can be defined across the combined fleet. As
with the fleets separately, all vehicles using a shared engine/
transmission would automatically adopt technologies adopted by the
engine-transmission leader.
The agencies request comment on plans to analyze the light-duty and
MD pickup and van fleets jointly in support of planning for the final
rule.
(e) Phase-In Caps
The CAFE model retains the ability to use phase-in caps (specified
in model inputs) as proxies for a variety of practical restrictions on
technology application. Unlike vehicle-specific restrictions related to
redesign, refreshes or platforms/engines, phase-in caps constrain
technology application at the vehicle manufacturer level. They are
intended to reflect a manufacturer's overall resource capacity
available for implementing new technologies (such as engineering and
development personnel and financial resources), thereby ensuring that
resource capacity is accounted for in the modeling process.
In previous CAFE rulemakings, redesign/refresh schedules and phase-
in caps were the primary mechanisms to reflect an OEM's limited pool of
available resources during the rulemaking time frame and the years
leading up to the rulemaking time frame, especially in years where many
models may be scheduled for refresh or redesign. The newly-introduced
representation platform-, engine-, and transmission-related
considerations discussed above augment the model's preexisting
representation of redesign cycles and accommodation of phase-in caps.
Considering these new constraints,
[[Page 40366]]
inputs for today's analysis de-emphasize reliance on phase-in caps.
In this application of the CAFE model, phase-in caps are used only
for the most advanced technologies included in the analysis, i.e.,
SHEVs and lean-burn GDI engines, considering that these technologies
are most likely to involve implementation costs and risks not otherwise
accounted for in corresponding input estimates of technology cost. For
these two technologies, the agencies have applied caps that begin at 3
percent (i.e., 3 percent of the manufacturer's production) in MY 2017,
increase at 3 percent annually during the ensuing nine years (reaching
30 percent in the MY 2026), and subsequently increasing at 5 percent
annually for four years (reaching 50 percent in MY 2030). Note that the
agencies did not feel that lean-burn engines were feasible in the
timeframe of this rulemaking, so decided to reject any model runs where
they were selected. Due to the cost ineffectiveness of this technology,
it was never chosen. The agencies request comment on the
appropriateness of these phase-in caps as proxies for constraints that,
though not monetized by the agencies, nonetheless limit rates at which
these two technologies can practicably be deployed, and on the
appropriateness of setting inputs to stop applying phase-in caps to
other technologies in this analysis. Comments on this issue should
provide information supporting any alternative recommended inputs.
(f) Impact of Vehicle Technology Application Requirements
Compared to prior analyses of light-duty standards, these model
changes, along with characteristics of the HD pickup and van fleet
result in some changes in the broad characteristics of the model's
application of technology to manufacturers' fleets. First, since the
number of HD pickup and van platforms in a portfolio is typically
small, compliance with standards may appear especially ``lumpy''
(compared to previous applications of the CAFE model to the more highly
segmented light-duty fleet), with significant over compliance when
widespread redesigns precede stringency increases, and/or significant
application of carried-forward (aka ``banked'') credits.
Second, since the use of phase-in caps has been de-emphasized and
manufacturer technology deployment remains tied strongly to estimated
product redesign and freshening schedules, technology penetration rates
may jump more quickly as manufacturers apply technology to high-volume
products in their portfolio.
By design, restrictions that enforce commonality of mass reduction
and aerodynamic technologies on variants of a platform, and those that
enforce engine inheritance, will result in fewer vehicle-technology
combinations in a manufacturer's future modeled fleet. These
restrictions are expected to more accurately capture the true costs
associated with producing and maintaining a product portfolio.
(g) Accounting for Test Weight, Payload, and Towing Capacity
As mentioned above, NHTSA has also revised the CAFE model to
explicitly account for the regulatory ``binning'' of test weights used
to certify light-duty fuel economy and HD pickup and van fuel
consumption for purposes of evaluating fleet-level compliance with fuel
economy and fuel consumption standards. For HD pickups and vans, test
weight (TW) is based on adjusted loaded vehicle weight (ALVW), which is
defined as the average of gross vehicle weight rating (GVWR) and curb
weight (CW). TW values are then rounded, resulting in TW ``bins'':
ALVW <= 4,000 lb.: TW rounded to nearest 125 lb.
4,000 lb. < ALVW <= 5,500 lb.: TW rounded to nearest 250 lb.
ALVW > 5,500 lb.: TW rounded to nearest 500 lb.
This ``binning'' of TW is relevant to calculation of fuel
consumption reductions accompanying mass reduction. Model inputs for
mass reduction (as an applied technology) are expressed in terms of a
percentage reduction of curb weight and an accompanying estimate of the
percentage reduction in fuel consumption, setting aside rounding of
test weight. Therefore, to account for rounding of test weight, NHTSA
has modified these calculations as follows:
[GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] TP13JY15.011
Where:
[Delta]CW = % change in curb weight (from model input),
[Delta]FCunrounded_TW = % change in fuel consumption
(from model input), without TW rounding,
[Delta]TW = % change in test weight (calculated), and
[Delta]FCrounded_TW = % change in fuel consumption
(calculated), with TW rounding.
As a result, some applications of vehicle mass reduction will
produce no compliance benefit at all, in cases where the changes in
ALVW are too small to change test weight when rounding is taken into
account. On the other hand, some other applications of vehicle mass
reduction will produce significantly more compliance benefit than when
rounding is not taken into account, in cases where even small changes
in ALVW are sufficient to cause vehicles' test weights to increase by,
e.g., 500 lbs when rounding is accounted for. Model outputs now include
initial and final TW, GVWR, and GCWR (and, as before, CW) for each
vehicle model in each model year, and the agencies invite comment on
the extent to which these changes to account explicitly for changes in
TW are likely to produce more realistic estimates of the compliance
impacts of reductions in vehicle mass.
In addition, considering that the regulatory alternatives in the
agencies' analysis all involve attribute-based standards in which
underlying fuel consumption targets vary with ``work factor'' (defined
by the agencies as the sum of three quarters of payload, one quarter of
towing capacity, and 500 lb. for vehicles with 4WD), NHTSA has modified
the CAFE model to apply inputs defining shares of curb weight reduction
to be ``returned'' to payload and shares of GVWR reduction to be
returned to towing capacity. The standards' dependence on work factor
provides some incentive to increase payload and towing capacity, both
of which are buyer-facing measures of vehicle utility. In the agencies'
judgment, this provides reason to assume that if vehicle mass is
reduced, manufacturers are likely to ``return'' some of the change to
payload and/or towing capacity. For this analysis, the agencies have
applied the following assumptions:
GVWR will be reduced by half the amount by which curb
weight is reduced. In other words, 50 percent of the curb weight
reduction will be returned to payload.
[[Page 40367]]
GCWR will not be reduced. In other words, 100 percent of
any GVWR reduction will be returned to towing capacity.
GVWR/CW and GCWR/GVWR will not increase beyond levels
observed among the majority of similar vehicles (or, for outlier
vehicles, initial values):
Table VI-16--Ratios for Modifying GVW and GCW as a Function of Mass
Reduction
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Group Maximum ratios assumed enabled by
----------------------------------- mass reduction
-------------------------------------
GVWR/CW GCWR/GVWR
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unibody........................... 1.75 1.50
Gasoline pickups >13k GVWR........ 2.00 1.50
Other gasoline pickups............ 1.75 2.25
Diesel SRW pickups................ 1.75 2.50
All other......................... 1.75 2.25
------------------------------------------------------------------------
The first of two of these inputs are specified along with standards
for each regulatory alternative, and the GVWR/CW and GCWR/GVWR ``caps''
are specified separately for each vehicle model in the analysis fleet.
In addition, DOT has changed the model to prevent HD pickup and van
GVWR from falling below 8,500 lbs when mass reduction is applied
(because doing so would cause vehicles to be reclassified as light-duty
vehicles), and to treat any additional mass for hybrid electric
vehicles as reducing payload by the same amount (e.g., if adding a
strong HEV package to a vehicle involves a 350 pound penalty, GVWR is
assumed to remain unchanged, such that payload is also reduced by 350
lbs).
The agencies invite comment on these methods for estimating how
changes in vehicle mass may impact fuel consumption, GVWR, and GCWR,
and on corresponding inputs to today's analysis.
(2) Development of the Analysis Fleet
As discussed above, both agencies used DOT's CAFE modeling system
to estimate technology costs and application rates under each
regulatory alternative, including the no action alternative (which
reflects continuation of previously-promulgated standards). Impacts
under each of the ``action'' alternatives are calculated on an
incremental basis relative to impacts under the no action alternative.
The modeling system relies on many inputs, including an analysis fleet.
In order to estimate the impacts of potential standards, it is
necessary to estimate the composition of the future vehicle fleet.
Doing so enables estimation of the extent to which each manufacturer
may need to add technology in response to a given series of attribute-
based standards, accounting for the mix and fuel consumption of
vehicles in each manufacturer's regulated fleet. The agencies create an
analysis fleet in order to track the volumes and types of fuel economy-
improving and CO2-reducing technologies that are already
present in the existing vehicle fleet. This aspect of the analysis
fleet helps to keep the CAFE model from adding technologies to vehicles
that already have these technologies, which would result in ``double
counting'' of technologies' costs and benefits. An additional step
involved projecting the fleet sales into MYs 2019-2030. This represents
the fleet volumes that the agencies believe would exist in MYs 2019-
2030. The following presents an overview of the information and methods
applied to develop the analysis fleet, and some basic characteristics
of that fleet.
The resultant analysis fleet is provided in detail at NHTSA's Web
site, along with all other inputs to and outputs from today's analysis.
The agencies invite comment on this analysis fleet and, in particular,
on any other information that should be reflected in an analysis fleet
used to update the agencies' analysis for the final rule. Also, the
agencies also invites comment on the potential expansion of this
analysis fleet such that the impacts of new HD pickup and van standards
can be estimated within the context of an integrated analysis of light-
duty vehicles and HD pickups and vans, accounting for interactions
between the fleets.
(a) Data Sources
Most of the information about the vehicles that make up the 2014
analysis fleet was gathered from the 2014 Pre-Model Year Reports
submitted to EPA by the manufacturers under Phase 1 of Fuel Efficiency
and GHG Emission Program for Medium- and Heavy-Duty Trucks, MYs 2014-
2018.
The major manufacturers of class 2b and class 3 trucks (Chrysler,
Ford and GM) were asked to voluntarily submit updates to their Pre-
Model Year Reports. Updated data were provided by Chrysler and GM.
These updated data were used in constructing the analysis fleet for
these manufacturers.
The agencies agreed to treat this information as Confidential
Business Information (CBI) until the publication of the proposed rule.
This information can be made public at this time because by now all
MY2014 vehicle models have been produced, which makes data about them
essentially public information.
These data (by individual vehicle configuration produced in MY2014)
include: Projected Production Volume/MY2014 Sales, Drive Type, Axle
Ratio, Work Factor, Curb Weight, Test Weight,\359\ GVWR, GCWR, Fuel
Consumption (gal/100 mile), engine type (gasoline or diesel), engine
displacement, transmission type and number of gears.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\359\ Chrysler and GM did not provide test weights in their
submittals. Test weights were calculated as the average of GVWR and
curb weight rounded up to the nearest 100 lb.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
The column ``Engine'' of the Pre-Model Year report for each OEM was
copied to the column ``Engine Code'' of the vehicle sheet of the CAFE
model market data input file. Values of ``Engine'' were changed to
Engine Codes for use in the CAFE model. The codes indicated on the
vehicle sheet map the detailed engine data on the engine sheet to the
appropriate vehicle on the vehicle sheet of the CAFE model input file.
The column ``Trans Class'' of the Pre-Model Year report for each
OEM was copied to the column ``Transmission Code'' of the vehicle sheet
of the market data input file. Values of ``Trans Class'' were changed
to Transmission Codes for use in the CAFE model. The codes indicated on
the vehicle sheet map the detailed transmission data on the
transmission sheet to the appropriate vehicle on the vehicle sheet of
the CAFE model input file.
In addition to information about each vehicle, the agencies need
additional
[[Page 40368]]
information about the fuel economy-improving/CO2-reducing
technologies already on those vehicles in order to assess how much and
which technologies to apply to determine a path toward future
compliance. Thus, the agencies augmented this information with
publicly-available data that includes more complete technology
descriptions. Specific engines and transmissions associated with each
manufacturer's trucks were identified using their respective internet
sites. Detailed technical data on individual engines and transmissions
indicated on the engine sheet and transmission sheet of the CAFE model
input file were then obtained from manufacturer internet sites, spec
sheets and product literature, Ward's Automotive Group and other
commercial internet sites such as cars.com, edmunds.com, and
motortrend.com. Specific additional information included:
``Fuel Economy on Secondary Fuel'' was calculated as E85 =
.74 gasoline fuel economy, or B20 = .98 diesel fuel economy. These
values were duplicated in the columns ``Fuel Economy (Ethanol-85)'' and
``Fuel Economy (Biodiesel-20)'' of the CAFE market data input file.
Values in the columns ``Fuel Share (Gasoline)'', ``Fuel
Share (Ethanol-85)'', ``Fuel Share (Diesel),'' and ``Fuel Share
(Biodiesel-20)'' are Volpe assumptions.
The CAFE model also requires that values of Origin,
Regulatory Class, Technology Class, Safety Class, and Seating (Max) be
present in the file in order for the model to run. Placeholder values
were added in these columns.
In addition to the data taken from the OEM Pre Model Year
submittals, NHTSA added additional data for use by the CAFE model.
These included Platform, Refresh Years, Redesign Years, MSRP, Style,
Structure and Fuel Capacity.
MSRP was obtained from web2carz.com and the OEM Web sites.
Fuel capacity was obtained from OEM spec sheets and
product literature.
The Structure values (Ladder, Unibody) used by the CAFE
model were added. These were determined from OEM product literature and
the automotive press. It should be noted that the new vans such as the
Transit in fact utilize a ladder/unibody structure. Ford product
literature uses the term ``Uniladder'' to describe the structure. Vans
based on this structure are noted in the Vehicle Notes column of the
NHTSA input file.
Style values used by the CAFE model were also added:
Chassis Cab, Cutaway, Pickup and Van.
(b) Vehicle Redesign Schedules and Platforms
Product cadence in the Class 2b and 3 pickup market has
historically ranged from 7-9 years between major redesigns. However,
due to increasing competitive pressures and consumer demands the agency
anticipates that manufacturers will generally shift to shorter design
cycles resembling those of the light duty market. Pickup truck
manufacturers in the Class 2b and 3 segments are shown to adopt
redesign cycles of six years, allowing two redesigns prior to the end
of the regulatory period in 2025. The agencies request comment on the
anticipated future use of redesign cycles in this product segment.
The Class 2b and 3 van market has changed markedly from five years
ago. Ford, Nissan, Ram and Daimler have adopted vans of ``Euro Van''
appearance, and in many cases now use smaller turbocharged gasoline or
diesel engines in the place of larger, naturally-aspirated V8s. The
2014 Model Year used in this analysis represents a period where most
manufacturers, with the exception of General Motors, have recently
introduced a completely redesigned product after many years. The van
segment has historically been one of the slowest to be redesigned of
any product segment, with some products going two decades or more
between redesigns.
Due to new entrants in the field and increased competition, the
agencies anticipate that most manufacturers will increase the pace of
product redesigns in the van segment, but that they will continue to
trail other segments. The cycle time used in this analysis is
approximately ten years between major redesigns, allowing manufacturers
only one major redesign during the regulatory period. The agencies
request comment on this anticipated product design cycle.
Additional detail on product cadence assumptions for specific
manufacturers is located in Chapter 10 of the draft RIA.
(c) Sales Volume Forecast
Since each manufacturer's required average fuel consumption and GHG
levels are sales-weighted averages of the fuel economy/GHG targets
across all model offerings, sales volumes play a critical role in
estimating that burden. The CAFE model requires a forecast of sales
volumes, at the vehicle model-variant level, in order to simulate the
technology application necessary for a manufacturer to achieve
compliance in each model year for which outcomes are simulated.
For today's analysis, the agencies relied on the MY 2014 pre-model-
year compliance submissions from manufacturers to provide sales volumes
at the model level based on the level of disaggregation in which the
models appear in the compliance data. However, the agencies only use
these reported volumes without adjustment for MY 2014. For all future
model years, we combine the manufacturer submissions with sales
projections from the 2014 Annual Energy Outlook Reference Case and IHS
Automotive to determine model variant level sales volumes in future
years.\360\ The projected sales volumes by class that appear in the
2014 Annual Energy Outlook as a result of a collection of assumptions
about economic conditions, demand for commercial miles traveled, and
technology migration from light-duty pickup trucks in response to the
concurrent light-duty CAFE/GHG standards. These are shown in Chapter 2
of the draft RIA.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\360\ Tables from AEO's forecast are available at https://www.eia.gov/oiaf/aeo/tablebrowser/. The agencies also made use of
the IHS Automotive Light Vehicle Production Forecast (August 2014).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
For this analysis, the agencies have limited this analysis fleet to
class 2b and 3 HD pickups and vans. However, especially considering
interactions between the light-duty and HD pickup and van fleets (e.g.,
MDPVs being included in the light-duty fleet), the agencies are
evaluating the potential to analyze the fleets in an integrated fashion
for the final rule, and invite comment on the extent to which doing so
could provide more realistic estimates of the incremental impacts of
new standards applicable HD pickups and vans.
The projection of total sales volumes for the Class 2b and 3 market
segment was based on the total volumes in the 2014 AEO Reference Case.
For the purposes of this analysis, the AEO2014 calendar year volumes
have been used to represent the corresponding model-year volumes. While
AEO2014 provides enough resolution in its projections to separate the
volumes for the Class 2b and 3 segments, the agencies deferred to the
vehicle manufacturers and chose to rely on the relative shares present
in the pre-model-year compliance data.
The relative sales share by vehicle type (van or pickup truck, in
this case) was derived from a sales forecast that the agencies
purchased from IHS Automotive, and applied to the total volumes in the
AEO2014 projection. Table VI-17 shows the implied shares of the total
new 2b/3 vehicle market broken down by manufacturer and vehicle type.
[[Page 40369]]
Table VI-17--IHS Automotive Market Share Forecast for 2b/3 Vehicles
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Model year market share
Manufacturer Style ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2015 (%) 2016 (%) 2017 (%) 2018 (%) 2019 (%) 2020 (%) 2021 (%)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Daimler....................................... Van............................. 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
Fiat.......................................... Van............................. 2 2 2 2 2 2 3
Ford.......................................... Van............................. 16 17 17 17 18 18 18
General Motors................................ Van............................. 12 12 11 12 13 13 13
Nissan........................................ Van............................. 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
Daimler....................................... Pickup.......................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Fiat.......................................... Pickup.......................... 14 14 14 14 11 12 12
Ford.......................................... Pickup.......................... 28 27 30 30 30 27 26
General Motors................................ Pickup.......................... 23 23 21 21 21 22 23
Nissan........................................ Pickup.......................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
[[Page 40370]]
Within those broadly defined market shares, volumes at the
manufacturer/model-variant level were constructed by applying the
model-variant's share of manufacturer sales in the pre-model-year
compliance data for the relevant vehicle style, and multiplied by the
total volume estimated for that manufacturer and that style.
After building out a set of initial future sales volumes based on
the sources described above, the agencies attempted to incorporate new
information about changes in sales mix that would not be captured by
either the existing sales forecasts or the simulated technology changes
in vehicle platforms. In particular, Ford has announced intentions to
phase out their existing Econoline vans, gradually shifting volumes to
the new Transit platform for some model variants (notably chassis cabs
and cutaways variants) and eliminating offerings outright for complete
Econoline vans as early as model year 2015. In the case of complete
Econoline vans, the volumes for those vehicles were allocated to MY2015
Transit vehicles based on assumptions about likely production splits
for the powertrains of the new Transit platform. The volumes for
complete Econoline vans were shifted at ratios of 50 percent, 35
percent, and 15 percent for 3.7 L, 3.5 L Eco-boost, and 3.2 L diesel,
respectively. Within each powertrain, sales were allocated based on the
percentage shares present in the pre-model-year compliance data. The
chassis cab and cutaway variants of the Econolines were phased out
linearly between MY2015 and MY2020, at which time the Econolines cease
to exist in any form and all corresponding volume resides with the
Transits.
(3) Additional Technology Cost and Effectiveness Inputs
In addition to the base technology cost and effectiveness inputs
described in VI. of this preamble, the CAFE model has some additional
cost and effectiveness inputs, described as follows.
The CAFE model accommodates inputs to adjust accumulated
effectiveness under circumstances when combining multiple technologies
could result in underestimation or overestimation of total incremental
effectiveness relative to an ``unevolved'' baseline vehicle. These so-
called synergy factors may be positive, where the combination of the
technologies results in greater improvement than the additive
improvement of each technology, or negative, where the combination of
the technologies is lower than the additive improvement of each
technology. The synergy factors used in this analysis are described in
VI-18.
Table VI-18--Technology Pair Effectiveness Synergy Factors for HD Pickups and Vans
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Adjustment
Technology pair (%) Technology pair Adjustment (%)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
8SPD/CCPS................................... -4.60 IATC/CCPS...................... -1.30
8SPD/DEACO.................................. -4.60 IATC/DEACO..................... -1.30
8SPD/ICP.................................... -4.60 IATC/ICP....................... -1.30
8SPD/TRBDS1................................. 4.60 IATC/TRBDS1.................... 1.30
AERO2/SHEV1................................. 1.40 MR1/CCPS....................... 0.40
CCPS/IACC1.................................. -0.40 MR1/DCP........................ 0.40
CCPS/IACC2.................................. -0.60 MR1/VVA........................ 0.40
DCP/IACC1................................... -0.40 MR2/ROLL1...................... -0.10
DCP/IACC2................................... -0.60 MR2/SHEV1...................... -0.40
DEACD/IATC.................................. -0.10 NAUTO/CCPS..................... -1.70
DEACO/IACC2................................. -0.80 NAUTO/DEACO.................... -1.70
DEACO/MHEV.................................. -0.70 NAUTO/ICP...................... -1.70
DEACS/IATC.................................. -0.10 NAUTO/SAX...................... -0.40
DTURB/IATC.................................. 1.00 NAUTO/TRBDS1................... 1.70
DTURB/MHEV.................................. -0.60 ROLL1/AERO1.................... 0.10
DTURB/SHEV1................................. -1.00 ROLL1/SHEV1.................... 1.10
DVVLD/8SPD.................................. -0.60 ROLL2/AERO2.................... 0.20
DVVLD/IACC2................................. -0.80 SHFTOPT/MHEV................... -0.30
DVVLD/IATC.................................. -0.60 TRBDS1/MHEV.................... 0.80
DVVLD/MHEV.................................. -0.70 TRBDS1/SHEV1................... -3.30
DVVLS/8SPD.................................. -0.60 TRBDS1/VVA..................... -8.00
DVVLS/IACC2................................. -0.80 TRBDS2/EPS..................... -0.30
DVVLS/IATC.................................. -0.50 TRBDS2/IACC2................... -0.30
DVVLS/MHEV.................................. -0.70 TRBDS2/NAUTO................... -0.50
.............. VVA/IACC1...................... -0.40
.............. VVA/IACC2...................... -0.60
.............. VVA/IATC....................... -0.60
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The CAFE model also accommodates inputs to adjust accumulated
incremental costs under circumstances when the application sequence
could result in underestimation or overestimation of total incremental
costs relative to an ``unevolved'' baseline vehicle. For today's
analysis, the agencies have applied one such adjustment, increasing the
cost of medium-sized gasoline engines by $513 in cases where
turbocharging and engine downsizing is applied with variable valve
actuation.
The analysis performed using Method A also applied cost inputs to
address some costs encompassed neither by the agencies' estimates of
the direct cost to apply these technologies, nor by the agencies'
methods for ``marking up'' these costs to arrive at increases in the
new vehicle purchase costs. To account for the additional costs that
could be incurred if a technology is applied and then quickly replaced,
the CAFE model accommodates inputs specifying a ``stranded capital
cost'' specific to each technology. For this analysis, the model was
run with inputs to apply about $78 of additional cost (per engine) if
gasoline engine turbocharging and downsizing (separately for each
``level'' considered) is applied and then
[[Page 40371]]
immediately replaced, declining steadily to zero by the tenth model
year following initial application of the technology. The model also
accommodates inputs specifying any additional changes owners might
incur in maintenance and post-warranty repair costs. For this analysis,
the model was run with inputs indicating that vehicles equipped with
less rolling-resistant tires could incur additional tire replacement
costs equivalent to $21-$23 (depending on model year) in additional
costs to purchase the new vehicle. The agencies did not, however,
include inputs specifying any potential changes repair costs that might
accompany application of any of the above technologies. A sensitivity
analysis using Method A, discussed below, includes a case in which
repair costs are estimated using factors consistent with those
underlying the indirect cost multipliers used to mark up direct costs
for the agencies' central analysis.
The agencies invite comment on all efficacy and cost inputs
involved in today's analysis and request that commenters provide any
additional data or forward-looking estimates that could be used to
support alternative inputs, including those related to costs beyond
those reflected in the cost to purchase new vehicles.
(4) Other Analysis Inputs
In addition to the inputs summarized above, the analysis of
potential standards for HD pickups and vans makes use of a range of
other estimates and assumptions specified as inputs to the CAFE
modeling system. Some significant inputs (e.g., estimates of future
fuel prices) also applicable to other MDHD segments are discussed below
in Section IX. Others more specific to the analysis of HD pickups and
vans are as follows:
(a) Vehicle Survival and Mileage Accumulation:
Today's analysis estimates the travel, fuel consumption, and
emissions over the useful lives of vehicles produced during model years
2014-2030. Doing so requires initial estimates of these vehicles'
survival rates (i.e., shares expected to remain in service) and mileage
accumulation rates (i.e., anticipated annual travel by vehicles
remaining in service), both as a function of vehicle vintage (i.e.,
age). These estimates are based on an empirical analysis of changes in
the fleet of registered vehicles over time, in the case of survival
rates, and usage data collected as part of the last Vehicle In Use
Survey (the 2002 VIUS), in the case of mileage accumulation.
(b) Rebound Effect
Expressed as an elasticity of mileage accumulation with respect to
the fuel cost per mile of operation, the agencies have applied a
rebound effect of 10 percent for today's analysis.
(c) On-Road ``Gap''
The model was run with a 20 percent adjustment to reflect
differences between on-road and laboratory performance.
(d) Fleet Population Profile
Though not reported here, cumulative fuel consumption and
CO2 emissions are presented in the accompanying draft EIS,
and these calculations utilize estimates of the numbers of vehicles
produced in each model year remaining in service in calendar year 2014.
The initial age distribution of the registered vehicle population in
2014 is based on vehicle registration data acquired by NHTSA from R.L.
Polk Company.
(e) Past Fuel Consumption Levels
Though not reported here, cumulative fuel consumption and
CO2 emissions are presented in the accompanying draft EIS,
and these calculations require estimates of the performance of vehicles
produced prior to model year 2014. Consistent with AEO 2014, the model
was run with the assumption that gasoline and diesel HD pickups and
vans averaged 14.9 mpg and 18.6 mpg, respectively, with gasoline
versions averaging about 48 percent of production.
(f) Long-Term Fuel Consumption Levels
Though not reported here, longer-term estimates of fuel consumption
and emissions are presented in the accompanying draft EIS. These
estimates include calculations involving vehicle produced after MY 2030
and, consistent with AEO 2014, the model was run with the assumption
that fuel consumption and CO2 emission levels will continue
to decline at 0.05 percent annually (compounded) after MY 2030.
(g) Payback Period
To estimate in what sequence and to what degree manufacturers might
add fuel-saving technologies to their respective fleets, the CAFE model
iteratively ranks remaining opportunities (i.e., applications of
specific technologies to specific vehicles) in terms of effective cost,
primary components of which are the technology cost and the avoided
fuel outlays, attempting to minimize effective costs incurred.\361\
Depending on inputs, the model also assumes manufacturers may improve
fuel consumption beyond requirements insofar as doing so will involve
applications of technology at negative effective cost--i.e., technology
application for which buyers' up-front costs are quickly paid back
through avoided fuel outlays. This calculation includes only fuel
outlays occurring within a specified payback period. For this analysis,
a payback period of 6 months was applied for the dynamic baseline case,
or Alternative 1b. Thus, for example, a manufacturer already in
compliance with standards is projected to apply a fuel consumption
improvement projected to cost $250 (i.e., as a cost that could be
charged to the buyer at normal profit to the manufacturer) and reduce
fuel costs by $500 in the first year of vehicle operation. The agencies
have conducted the same analysis applying a payback period of 0 months
for the flat baseline case, or Alternative 1a.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\361\ Volpe CAFE Model, available at https://www.nhtsa.gov/fuel-economy.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
(h) Civil Penalties
EPCA and EISA require that a manufacturer pay civil penalties if it
does not have enough credits to cover a shortfall with one or both of
the light-duty CAFE standards in a model year. While these provisions
do not apply to HD pickups and vans, at this time, the CAFE model will
show civil penalties owed in cases where available technologies and
credits are estimated to be insufficient for a manufacturer to achieve
compliance with a standard. These model-reported estimates have been
excluded from this analysis.
(i) Coefficients for Fatality Calculations
Today's analysis considered the potential effects on crash safety
of the technologies manufacturers may apply to their vehicles to meet
each of the regulatory alternatives. NHTSA research has shown that
vehicle mass reduction affects overall societal fatalities associated
with crashes \362\ and, most relevant to this proposal, mass reduction
in heavier light- and medium-duty vehicles has an overall beneficial
effect on societal fatalities. Reducing the mass of a heavier vehicle
involved in a crash with another vehicle(s) makes it less likely there
will be fatalities among the occupants of the other vehicles. In
addition to the effects of mass reduction, the analysis anticipates
that
[[Page 40372]]
the proposed standards, by reducing the cost of driving HD pickups and
vans, would lead to increased travel by these vehicles and, therefore,
more crashes involving these vehicles. The Method A analysis considers
overall impacts considering both of these factors, using a methodology
similar to NHTSA's analyses for the MYs 2017--2025 CAFE and GHG
emission standards.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\362\ U.S. DOT/NHTSA, Relationships Between Fatality Risk Mass
and Footprint in MY 2000-2007 PC and LTVs, ID: NHTSA-2010-0131-0336,
Posted August 21, 2012.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
The Method A analysis includes estimates of the extent to which HD
pickups and vans produced during MYs 2014-2030 may be involved in fatal
crashes, considering the mass, survival, and mileage accumulation of
these vehicles, taking into account changes in mass and mileage
accumulation under each regulatory alternative. These calculations make
use of the same coefficients applied to light trucks in the MYs 2017-
2025 CAFE rulemaking analysis. Baseline rates of involvement in fatal
crashes are 13.03 and 13.24 fatalities per billion miles for vehicles
with initial curb weights above and below 4,594 lbs, respectively.
Considering that the data underlying the corresponding statistical
analysis included observations through calendar year 2010, these rates
are reduced by 9.6 percent to account for subsequent impacts of recent
Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards (FMVSS) and anticipated
behavioral changes (e.g., continued increases in seat belt use). For
vehicles above 4,594 lbs--i.e., the majority of the HD pickup and van
fleet--mass reduction is estimated to reduce the net incidence of
highway fatalities by 0.34 percent per 100 lbs of removed curb weight.
For the few HD pickups and vans below 4,594 lbs, mass reduction is
estimated to increase the net incidence of highway fatalities by 0.52
percent per 100 lbs. Consistent with DOT guidance, the social cost of
highway fatalities is estimated using a value of statistical life (VSL)
of $9.36m in 2014, increasing thereafter at 1.18 percent annually.
(j) Compliance Credit Provisions
Today's analysis accounts for the potential to over comply with
standards and thereby earn compliance credits, applying these credits
to ensuring compliance requirements. In doing so, the agencies treat
any unused carried-forward credits as expiring after five model years,
consistent with current and proposed standards. For today's analysis,
the agencies are not estimating the potential to ``borrow''--i.e., to
carry credits back to past model years.
(k) Emission Factors
While CAFE model calculates vehicular CO2 emissions
directly on a per-gallon basis using fuel consumption and fuel
properties (density and carbon content), the model calculates emissions
of other pollutants (methane, nitrogen oxides, ozone precursors, carbon
monoxide, sulfur dioxide, particulate matter, and air toxics) on a per-
mile basis. In doing so, the Method A analysis used corresponding
emission factors estimated using EPA's MOVES model.\363\ To estimate
emissions (including CO2) from upstream processes involved
in producing, distributing, and delivering fuel, NHTSA has applied
emission factors--all specified on a gram per gallon basis--derived
from Argonne National Laboratory's GREET model.\364\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\363\ EPA MOVES model available at https://www.epa.gov/otaq/models/moves/index.htm (last accessed Feb 23, 2015).
\364\ GREET (Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy
Use in Transportation) Model, Argonne National Laboratory, https://greet.es.anl.gov/.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
(l) Refueling Time Benefits
To estimate the value of time savings associated with vehicle
refueling, the Method A analysis used estimates that an average
refueling event involves refilling 60 percent of the tank's capacity
over the course of 3.5 minutes, at an hourly cost of $27.22.
(m) External Costs of Travel
Changes in vehicle travel will entail economic externalities. To
estimate these costs, the Method A analysis used estimates that
congestion-, accident-, and noise-related externalities will total 5.1
[cent]/mi., 2.8 [cent]/mi., and 0.1 [cent]/mi., respectively.
(n) Ownership and Operating Costs
Method A results predict that the total cost of vehicle ownership
and operation will change not just due to changes in vehicle price and
fuel outlays, but also due to some other costs likely to vary with
vehicle price. To estimate these costs, NHTSA has applied factors of
5.5 percent (of price) for taxes and fees, 15.3 percent for financing,
19.2 percent for insurance, 1.9 percent for relative value loss. The
Method A analysis also estimates that average vehicle resale value will
increase by 25 percent of any increase in new vehicle price.
(5) DOT CAFE Model Analysis of Impacts of Regulatory Alternatives for
HD Pickups and Vans
(a) Industry Impacts
The agencies' analysis fleet provides a starting point for
estimating the extent to which manufacturers might add fuel-saving
(and, therefore, CO2-avoiding) technologies under various
regulatory alternatives, including the no-action alternative that
defines a baseline against which to measure estimated impacts of new
standards. The analysis fleet is a forward-looking projection of
production of new HD pickups and vans, holding vehicle characteristics
(e.g., technology content and fuel consumption levels) constant at
model year 2014 levels, and adjusting production volumes based on
recent DOE and commercially-available forecasts. This analysis fleet
includes some significant changes relative to the market
characterization that was used to develop the Phase 1 standards
applicable starting in model year 2014; in particular, the analysis
fleet includes some new HD vans (e.g., Ford's Transit and Fiat/
Chrysler's Promaster) that are considerably more fuel-efficient than HD
vans these manufacturers have previously produced for the U.S. market.
While the proposed standards are scheduled to begin in model year
2021, the requirements they define are likely to influence
manufacturers' planning decisions several years in advance. This is
true in light-duty planning, but accentuated by the comparatively long
redesign cycles and small number of models and platforms offered for
sale in the 2b/3 market segment. Additionally, manufacturers will
respond to the cost and efficacy of available fuel consumption
improvements, the price of fuel, and the requirements of the Phase 1
standards that specify maximum allowable average fuel consumption and
GHG levels for MY2014-MY2018 HD pickups and vans (the final standard
for MY2018 is held constant for model years 2019 and 2020). The
forward-looking nature of product plans that determine which vehicle
models will be offered in the model years affected by the proposed
standards lead to additional technology application to vehicles in the
analysis fleet that occurs in the years prior to the start of the
proposed standards. From the industry perspective, this means that
manufacturers will incur costs to comply with the proposed standards in
the baseline and that the total cost of the proposed regulations will
include some costs that occur prior to their start, and represent
incremental changes over a world in which manufacturers will have
already modified their vehicle offerings compared to today.
[[Page 40373]]
Table VI-19--MY2021 Baseline Costs for Manufacturers in 2b/3 Market
Segment in the Dynamic Baseline, or Alternative 1b
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Average Total cost
Manufacturer technology increase
cost ($) ($m)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Chrysler/Fiat................................. 275 27
Daimler....................................... 18 0
Ford.......................................... 258 78
General Motors................................ 782 191
Nissan........................................ 282 3
Industry...................................... 442 300
------------------------------------------------------------------------
As Table VI-19 shows, the industry as a whole is expected to add
about $440 of new technology to each new vehicle model by 2021 under
the no-action alternative defined by the Phase 1 standards. Reflecting
differences in projected product offerings in the analysis fleet, some
manufacturers (notably Daimler) are significantly less constrained by
the Phase 1 standards than others and face lower cost increases as a
result. General Motors (GM) shows the largest increase in average
vehicle cost, but results for GM's closest competitors (Ford and
Chrysler/Fiat) do not include the costs of their recent van redesigns,
which are already present in the analysis fleet (discussed in greater
detail below).
The above results reflect the assumption that manufacturers having
achieved compliance with standards might act as if buyers are willing
to pay for further fuel consumption improvements that ``pay back''
within 6 months (i.e., those improvements whose incremental costs are
exceeded by savings on fuel within the first six months of ownership).
It is also possible that manufacturers will choose not to migrate cost-
effective technologies to the 2b/3 market segment from similar vehicles
in the light-duty market. To examine this possibility, all regulatory
alternatives were also analyzed using the DOT CAFE model (Method A)
with a 0-month payback period in lieu of the 6-month payback period
discussed above. (A sensitivity analysis using Method A, discussed
below, also explores longer payback periods, as well as the combined
effect of payback period and fuel price on vehicle design decisions).
Resultant technology costs in model year 2021 results for the no-action
alternative, summarized in Table VI-20 below, are quite similar to
those shown above for the 6-month payback period. Due to the similarity
between the two baseline characterizations, results in the following
discussion represent differences relative to only the 6-month payback
baseline.
Table VI-20--MY2021 Baseline Costs for HD Pickups and Vans in the Flat
Baseline, or Alternative 1a
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Average Total cost
Manufacturer technology increase
cost ($) ($m)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Chrysler/Fiat................................. 268 27
Daimler....................................... 0 0
Ford.......................................... 248 75
General Motors................................ 767 188
Nissan........................................ 257 3
Industry...................................... 431 292
------------------------------------------------------------------------
The results below represent the impacts of several regulatory
alternatives, including those defined by the proposed standards, as
incremental changes over the baseline, where the baseline is defined as
the state of the world in the absence of the proposed regulatory
action. Large-scale, macroeconomic conditions like fuel prices are
constant across all alternatives, including the baseline, as are the
fuel economy improvements under the no-action alternative defined by
the Phase 1 MDHD rulemaking that covers model years 2014-2018 and is
constant from model year 2018 through 2020. In the baseline scenario,
the Phase 1 standards are assumed to remain in place and at 2018 levels
throughout the analysis (i.e. MY 2030). The only difference between the
definitions of the alternatives is the stringency of the proposed
standards starting in MY 2021 and continuing through either MY 2025 or
MY 2027, and all of the differences in outcomes across alternatives are
attributable to differences in the standards.
The standards vary in stringency across regulatory alternatives (1-
5), but as discussed above, all of the standards are based on the curve
developed in the Phase 1 standards that relate fuel economy and GHG
emissions to a vehicle's work factor. The alternatives considered here
represent different rates of annual increase in the curve defined for
model year 2018, growing from a 0 percent annual increase (Alternative
1, the baseline or ``no-action'' alternative) up to a 4 percent annual
increase (Alternative 5). Table VI-21 shows a summary \365\ of outcomes
by alternative incremental to the baseline (Alternative 1b) for Model
Year 2030 \366\, with the exception of technology penetration rates,
which are absolute.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\365\ NHTSA generated hundreds of outputs related to economic
and environmental impacts, each available technology, and the costs
associated with the rule. A more comprehensive treatment of these
outputs appears in Chapter 10 of the draft RIA.
\366\ The DOT CAFE model estimates that redesign schedules will
``straddle'' model year 2027, the latest year for which the agencies
are proposing increases in the stringency of fuel consumption and
GHG standards. Considering also that today's analysis estimates some
earning and application of ``carried forward'' compliance credits,
the model was run extending the analysis through model year 2030.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
The technologies applied by the CAFE model have been grouped (in
most cases) to give readers a general sense of which types of
technology are applied more frequently than others, and are more likely
to be offered in new class 2b/3 vehicles once manufacturers are fully
compliant with the standards in the alternative. Model year 2030 was
chosen to account for technology application that occurs once the
standards have stabilized, but manufacturers are still redesigning
products to achieve compliance--generating technology costs and
benefits in those model years. The summaries of technology penetration
are also intended to reflect the relationship between technology
application and cost increases across the alternatives. The table rows
present the degree to which specific technologies will be present in
new class 2b and class 3 vehicles in 2030, and correspond to: Variable
valve timing (VVT) and/or variable valve lift (VVL), cylinder
deactivation, direct injection, engine turbocharging, 8-speed automatic
transmissions, electric power-steering and accessory improvements,
micro-hybridization (which reduces engine idle, but does not assist
propulsion), full hybridization (integrated starter generator or strong
hybrid that assists propulsion and recaptures braking energy), and
aerodynamic improvements to the vehicle shape. In addition to the
technologies in the following tables, there are some lower-complexity
technologies that have high market penetration across all the
alternatives and manufacturers; low rolling-resistance tires, low
friction lubricants, and reduced engine friction, for example.
[[Page 40374]]
Table VI-21--Summary of HD Pickups and Vans Alternatives' Impact on Industry Versus the Dynamic Baseline,
Alternative 1b
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Alternative 2 3 4 5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Annual Stringency Increase...................... 2.0%/y 2.5%/y 3.5%/y 4.0%/y
Stringency Increase Through MY.................. 2025 2027 2025 2025
Total Stringency Increase....................... 9.6% 16.2% 16.3% 18.5%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Average Fuel Economy (miles per gallon)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Required........................................ 19.04 20.57 20.57 21.14
Achieved........................................ 19.14 20.61 20.83 21.27
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Average Fuel Consumption (gallons/100 mi.)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Required........................................ 5.25 4.86 4.86 4.73
Achieved........................................ 5.22 4.85 4.80 4.70
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Average Greenhouse Gas Emissions (g/mi)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Required........................................ 495 458 458 446
Achieved........................................ 491 458 453 444
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Technology Penetration (%)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
VVT and/or VVL.................................. 46 46 46 46
Cylinder Deac................................... 29 21 21 21
Direct Injection................................ 17 25 31 32
Turbocharging................................... 55 63 63 63
8-Speed AT...................................... 67 96 96 97
EPS, Accessories................................ 54 80 79 79
Stop Start...................................... 0 0 10 13
Hybridization \a\............................... 0 8 35 51
Aero. Improvements.............................. 36 78 78 78
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Mass Reduction (vs. No-Action)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CW (lb.)........................................ 239 243 325 313
CW (%).......................................... 3.7 3.7 5.0 4.8
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Technology Cost (vs. No-Action)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Average ($) \b\................................. 578 1,348 1,655 2,080
Total ($m) \c\.................................. 437 1,019 1,251 1,572
Payback period (m) \c\.......................... 25 31 34 38
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Notes:
\a\ Includes mild hybrids (ISG) and strong HEVs.
\b\ Values used in Methods A & B.
\c\ Values used in Method A, calculated using a 3% discount rate.
In general, the model projects that the standards would cause
manufacturers to produce HD pickups and vans that are lighter, more
aerodynamic, and more technologically complex across all the
alternatives. As Table VI-21 shows, there is a difference between the
relatively small increases in required fuel economy and average
incremental technology cost between the alternatives, suggesting that
the challenge of improving fuel consumption and CO2
emissions accelerates as stringency increases (i.e., that there may be
a ``knee'' in the relationship between technology cost and reductions
in fuel consumption/GHG emissions). Despite the fact that the required
average fuel consumption level changes by about 3 percent between
Alternative 4 and Alternative 5, average technology cost increases by
more than 25 percent. These differences help illustrate the clustered
character of this market segment, where relatively small increases in
fuel economy can lead to much larger cost increases if entire platforms
must be changed in response to the standards.
The contrast between alternatives 3 and 4 is even more prominent,
with an identical required fuel economy improvement leading to price
increases greater than 20 percent based on the more rapid rate of
increase and shorter time span of Alternative 4, which achieves all of
its increases by MY 2025 while Alternative 3 continues to increase at a
slower rate until MY 2027. Despite these differences, the increase in
average payback period when moving from Alternative 3 to Alternative 4
to Alternative 5 is fairly constant at around an additional three
months for each jump in stringency.
Manufacturers offer few models, typically only a pickup truck and/
or a cargo van, and while there are a large number of variants of each
model, the degree of component sharing across the variants can make
diversified technology application either economically impractical or
impossible. This forces manufacturers to apply some technologies more
broadly in order to achieve compliance than they might do in other
market segments (passenger cars, for example). This difference between
broad and narrow application--where some technologies must be applied
to entire platforms, while some can be applied to individual model
variants--also explains why
[[Page 40375]]
certain technology penetration rates decrease between alternatives of
increasing stringency (cylinder deactivation or mass reductions in
Table VI-21, for example). For those cases, narrowly applying a more
advanced (and costly) technology can be a more cost effective path to
compliance and lead to reductions in the amount of lower-complexity
technology that is applied.
One driver of the change in technology cost between Alternative 3
and Alternative 4 is the amount of hybridization projected to result
from the implementation of the standards. While only about 5 percent
full hybridization (defined as either integrated starter-generator or
strong hybrid) is expected to be needed to comply with Alternative 3,
the higher rate of increase and compressed schedule moving from
Alternative 3 to Alternative 4 is enough to increase the percentage of
the fleet adopting full hybridization by a factor of two. To the extent
that manufacturers are concerned about introducing hybrid vehicles in
the 2b and 3 market, it is worth noting that new vehicles subject to
Alternative 3 achieve the same fuel economy as new vehicle subject to
Alternative 4 by 2030, with less hybridization required to achieve the
improvement.
The alternatives also lead to important differences in outcomes at
the manufacturer level, both from the industry average and from each
other. General Motors, Ford, and Chrysler (Fiat), are expected to have
approximately 95 percent of the 2b/3 new vehicle market during the
years that the proposed standards are being phased in. Due to their
importance to this market and the similarities between their model
offerings, these three manufacturers are discussed together and a
summary of the way each is impacted by the standards appears below in
Table VI-22, Table VI-23, and Table VI-24 for General Motors, Ford, and
Chrysler/Fiat, respectively.
Table VI-22--Summary of Impacts on General Motors by 2030 in the HD Pickup and Van Market Versus the Dynamic
Baseline, Alternative 1b
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Alternative 2 3 4 5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Annual Stringency Increase...................... 2.0%/y 2.5%/y 3.5%/y 4.0%/y
Stringency Increase Through MY.................. 2025 2027 2025 2025
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Average Fuel Economy (miles per gallon)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Required........................................ 18.38 19.96 20 20.53
Achieved........................................ 18.43 19.95 20.24 20.51
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Average Fuel Consumption (gallons/100 mi.)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Required........................................ 5.44 5.01 5 4.87
Achieved........................................ 5.42 5.01 4.94 4.87
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Average Greenhouse Gas Emissions (g/mi)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Required........................................ 507 467 467 455
Achieved........................................ 505 468 461 455
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Technology Penetration (%)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
VVT and/or VVL.................................. 64 64 64 64
Cylinder Deac................................... 47 47 47 47
Direct Injection................................ 18 18 36 36
Turbocharging................................... 53 53 53 53
8-Speed AT...................................... 36 100 100 100
EPS, Accessories................................ 100 100 100 100
Stop Start...................................... 0 0 2 0
Hybridization................................... 0 19 79 100
Aero. Improvements.............................. 100 100 100 100
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Mass Reduction (vs. No-Action)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CW (lb.)........................................ 325 161 158 164
CW (%).......................................... 5.3 2.6 2.6 2.7
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Technology Cost (vs. No-Action)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Average ($) \a\................................. 785 1,706 2,244 2,736
Total ($m, undiscounted) \b\.................... 214 465 611 746
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Notes:
\a\ Values used in Methods A & B.
\b\ Values used in Method A, calculated at a 3% discount rate.
Table VI-23--Summary of Impacts on Ford by 2030 in the HD Pickup and Van Market Versus the Dynamic Baseline,
Alternative 1b
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Alternative 2 3 4 5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Annual Stringency Increase...................... 2.0%/y 2.5%/y 3.5%/y 4.0%/y
[[Page 40376]]
Stringency Increase Through MY.................. 2025 2027 2025 2025
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Average Fuel Economy (miles per gallon)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Required........................................ 19.42 20.96 20.92 21.51
Achieved........................................ 19.5 21.04 21.28 21.8
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Average Fuel Consumption (gallons/100 mi.)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Required........................................ 5.15 4.77 4.78 4.65
Achieved........................................ 5.13 4.75 4.70 4.59
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Average Greenhouse Gas Emissions (g/mi)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Required........................................ 485 449 450 438
Achieved........................................ 482 447 443 433
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Technology Penetration (%)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
VVT and/or VVL.................................. 34 34 34 34
Cylinder Deac................................... 18 0 0 0
Direct Injection................................ 16 34 34 34
Turbocharging................................... 51 69 69 69
8-Speed AT...................................... 100 100 100 100
EPS, Accessories................................ 41 62 59 59
Stop Start...................................... 0 0 20 29
Hybridization................................... 0 2 14 30
Aero. Improvements.............................. 0 59 59 59
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Mass Reduction (vs. No-Action)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CW (lb.)........................................ 210 202 379 356
CW (%).......................................... 3.2 3 5.7 5.3
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Technology Cost (vs. No-Action)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Average ($) \a\................................. 506 1,110 1,353 1,801
Total ($m, undiscounted) \b\.................... 170 372 454 604
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Notes:
\a\ Values used in Methods A & B.
\b\ Values used in Method A, calculated at a 3% discount rate.
Table VI-24--Summary of Impacts on Fiat/Chrysler by 2030 in the HD Pickup and Van Market Versus the Dynamic
Baseline, Alternative 1b
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Alternative 2 3 4 5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Annual Stringency Increase...................... 2.0%/y 2.5%/y 3.5%/y 4.0%/y
Stringency Increase Through MY.................. 2025 2027 2025 2025
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Average Fuel Economy (miles per gallon)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Required........................................ 18.73 20.08 20.12 20.70
Achieved........................................ 18.83 20.06 20.10 20.70
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Average Fuel Consumption (gallons/100 mi.)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Required........................................ 5.34 4.98 4.97 4.83
Achieved........................................ 5.31 4.99 4.97 4.83
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Average Greenhouse Gas Emissions (g/mi)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Required........................................ 515 480 479 466
Achieved........................................ 512 481 480 467
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Technology Penetration (%)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
VVT and/or VVL.................................. 40 40 40 40
Cylinder Deac................................... 23 23 23 23
Direct Injection................................ 17 17 17 17
Turbocharging................................... 74 74 74 74
[[Page 40377]]
8-Speed AT...................................... 65 88 88 88
EPS, Accessories................................ 0 100 100 100
Stop-Start...................................... 0 0 0 0
Hybridization................................... 0 3 3 10
Aero. Improvements.............................. 0 100 100 100
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Mass Reduction (vs. No-Action)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CW (lb.)........................................ 196 649 648 617
CW (%).......................................... 2.8 9.1 9.1 8.7
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Technology Cost (vs. No-Action)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Average ($) \a\................................. 434 1,469 1,486 1,700
Total ($m, undiscounted) \b\.................... 48 163 164 188
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Notes:
\a\ Values used in Methods A & B.
\b\ Values used in Method A, calculated at a 3% discount rate.
The fuel consumption and GHG standards require manufacturers to
achieve an average level of compliance, represented by a sales-weighted
average across the specific targets of all vehicles offered for sale in
a given model year, such that each manufacturer will have a unique
required consumption/emissions level determined by the composition of
its fleet, as illustrated above. However, there are more interesting
differences than the small differences in required fuel economy levels
among manufacturers. In particular, the average incremental technology
cost increases with the stringency of the alternative for each
manufacturer, but the size of the cost increase from one alternative to
the next varies among them, with General Motors showing considerably
larger increases in cost moving from Alternative 3 to Alternative 4,
than from either Alternative 2 to Alternative 3 or Alternative 4 to
Alternative 5. Ford is estimated to have more uniform cost increases
from each alternative to the next, in increasing stringency, though
still benefits from the reduced pace and longer period of increase
associated with Alternative 3 compared to Alternative 4.
The simulation results show all three manufacturers facing cost
increases when the stringency of the standards move from 2.5 percent
annual increases over the period from MY 2021-2027 to 3.5 percent
annual increases from MY 2021-2025, but General Motors has the largest
at 75 percent more than the industry average price increase for
Alternative 4. GM also faces higher cost increases in Alternative 2
about 50 percent more than either Ford or Fiat/Chrysler. And for the
most stringent alternative considered, the agencies estimate that
General Motors would face average cost increases of more than $2,700,
in addition to the more than $700 increase in the baseline--approaching
nearly $3,500 per vehicle over today's prices.
Technology choices also differ by manufacturer, and some of those
decisions are directly responsible for the largest cost discrepancies.
For example, GM is estimated to engage in the least amount of mass
reduction among the Big 3 after Phase 1, and much less than Chrysler/
Fiat, but reduces average vehicle mass by over 300 lbs in the
baseline--suggesting that some of GM's easiest Phase 1 compliance
opportunities can be found in lightweighting technologies. Similarly,
Chrysler/Fiat is projected to apply less hybridization than the others,
and much less than General Motors, which is simulated to have full
hybrids (either integrated starter generator or complete hybrid system)
on all of its fleet by 2030, nearly 20 percent of which will be strong
hybrids, in Alternative 4 and the strong hybrid share decreases to
about 18 percent in Alternative 5, as some lower level technologies are
applied more broadly. Because the analysis applies the same technology
inputs and the same logic for selecting among available opportunities
to apply technology, the unique situation of each manufacturer
determined which technology path is projected as the most cost-
effective.
In order to understand the differences in incremental technology
costs and fuel economy achievement across manufacturers in this market
segment, it is important to understand the differences in their
starting position relative to the proposed standards. One important
factor, made more obvious in the following figures, is the difference
between the fuel economy and performance of the recently redesigned
vans offered by Fiat/Chrysler and Ford (the Promaster and Transit,
respectively), and the more traditionally-styled vans that continue to
be offered by General Motors (the Express/Savannah). In MY 2014, Ford
began the phase-out of the Econoline van platform, moving those volumes
to the Euro-style Transit vans (discussed in more detail in Section VI.
D.2). The Transit platform represents a significant improvement over
the existing Econoline platform from the perspective of fuel economy,
and for the purpose of complying with the standards, the relationship
between the Transit's work factor and fuel economy is a more favorable
one than the Econoline vans it replaces. Since the redesign of van
offerings from both Chrysler/Fiat and Ford occur in (or prior to) the
2014 model year, the costs, fuel consumption improvements, and
reductions of vehicle mass associated with those redesigns are included
in the analysis fleet, meaning they are not carried as part of the
compliance modeling exercise. By contrast, General Motors is simulated
to redesign their van offerings after 2014, such that there is a
greater potential for these vehicles to incur additional costs
attributable to new standards, unlike the costs associated with the
recent redesigns of their competitors. The inclusion of these new Ford
and Chrysler/Fiat products in the analysis fleet is the primary driver
of the cost discrepancy between GM and its competitors in both the
baseline and Alternative 2, when Ford and Chrysler/
[[Page 40378]]
Fiat have to apply considerably less technology to achieve compliance.
The remaining 5 percent of the 2b/3 market is attributed to two
manufacturers, Daimler and Nissan, which, unlike the other
manufacturers in this market segment, only produce vans. The vans
offered by both manufacturers currently utilize two engines and two
transmissions, although both Nissan engines are gasoline engines and
both Daimler engines are diesels. Despite the logical grouping, these
two manufacturers are impacted much differently by the proposed
standards. For the least stringent alternative considered, Daimler adds
no technology and incurs no incremental cost in order to comply with
the standards. At stringency increases greater than or equal to 3.5
percent per year, Daimler only really improves some of their
transmissions and improves the electrical accessories of its Sprinter
vans. By contrast, Nissan's starting position is much weaker and their
compliance costs closer to the industry average in Table VI-21. This
difference could increase if the analysis fleet supporting the final
rule includes forthcoming Nissan HD pickups.
Table VI-25--Summary of Impacts on Daimler by 2030 in the HD Pickup and Van Market Versus the Dynamic Baseline,
Alternative 1b
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Alternative 2 3 4 5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Annual Stringency Increase...................... 2.0%/y 2.5%/y 3.5%/y 4.0%/y
Stringency Increase Through MY.................. 2025 2027 2025 2025
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Average Fuel Economy (miles per gallon)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Required........................................ 23.36 25.19 25.25 25.91
Achieved........................................ 25.23 25.79 25.79 26.53
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Average Fuel Consumption (gallons/100 mi.)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Required........................................ 4.28 3.97 3.96 3.86
Achieved........................................ 3.96 3.88 3.88 3.77
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Average Greenhouse Gas Emissions (g/mi)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Required........................................ 436 404 404 393
Achieved........................................ 404 395 395 384
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Technology Penetration (%)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
VVT and/or VVL.................................. 0 0 0 0
Cylinder Deac................................... 0 0 0 0
Direct Injection................................ 0 0 0 0
Turbocharging................................... 44 44 44 44
8-Speed AT...................................... 0 44 44 100
EPS, Accessories................................ 0 0 0 0
Stop-Start...................................... 0 0 0 0
Hybridization................................... 0 0 0 0
Aero. Improvements.............................. 0 0 0 0
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Mass Reduction (vs. No-Action)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CW (lb.)........................................ 0 0 0 0
CW (%).......................................... 0 0 0 0
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Technology Cost (vs. No-Action)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Average ($) \a\................................. 0 165 165 374
Total ($m, undiscounted) \b\.................... 0 4 4 9
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Notes:
\a\ Values used in Methods A & B.
\b\ Values used in Method A, calculated at a 3% discount rate.
Table VI-26--Summary of Impacts on Nissan by 2030 in the HD Pickup and Van Market Versus the Dynamic Baseline,
Alternative 1b
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Alternative 2 3 4 5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Annual Stringency Increase...................... 2.0%/y 2.5%/y 3.5%/y 4.0%/y
Stringency Increase Through MY.................. 2025 2027 2025 2025
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Average Fuel Economy (miles per gallon)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Required........................................ 19.64 21.19 20.92 21.46
Achieved........................................ 19.84 21.17 21.19 21.51
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
[[Page 40379]]
Average Fuel Consumption (gallons/100 mi.)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Required........................................ 5.09 44.72 4.78 4.66
Achieved........................................ 5.04 4.72 4.72 4.65
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Average Greenhouse Gas Emissions (g/mi)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Required........................................ 452 419 425 414
Achieved........................................ 448 419 419 413
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Technology Penetration (%)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
VVT and/or VVL.................................. 100 100 100 100
Cylinder Deac................................... 49 49 49 49
Direct Injection................................ 51 51 51 100
Turbocharging................................... 51 51 51 50
8-Speed AT...................................... 0 51 51 51
EPS, Accessories................................ 0 100 100 100
Stop-Start...................................... 0 0 0 0
Hybridization................................... 0 0 0 28
Aero. Improvements.............................. 0 100 100 100
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Mass Reduction (vs. No-Action)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CW (lb.)........................................ 0 0 307 303
CW (%).......................................... 0 0 5 4.9
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Technology Cost (vs. No-Action)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Average ($) \a\................................. 378 1,150 1,347 1,935
Total ($m, undiscounted) \b\.................... 5 15.1 17.7 25.4
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Notes:
\a\ Values used in Methods A & B.
\b\ Values used in Method A, calculated at a 3% discount rate.
As Table VI-25 and Table VI-26 show, Nissan applies more technology
than Daimler in the less stringent alternatives and significantly more
technology with increasing stringency. The Euro-style Sprinter vans
that comprise all of Daimler's model offerings in this segment put
Daimler in a favorable position. However, those vans are already
advanced--containing downsized diesel engines and advanced aerodynamic
profiles. Much like the Ford Transit vans, the recent improvements to
the Sprinter vans occurred outside the scope of the compliance modeling
so the costs of the improvements are not captured in the analysis.
Although Daimler's required fuel economy level is much higher than
Nissan's (in miles per gallon), Nissan starts from a much weaker
position than Daimler and must incorporate additional engine,
transmission, platform-level technologies (e.g. mass reduction and
aerodynamic improvements) in order to achieve compliance. In fact, more
than 25 percent of Nissan's van offerings are projected to contain
integrated starter generators by 2030 in Alternative 5.
While the agencies do not allow sales volumes for any manufacturer
(or model) to vary across regulatory alternatives in the analysis, it
is conceivable that under the most stringent alternatives individual
manufacturers could lose market share to their competitors if the
prices of their new vehicles rise more than the industry average
without compensating fuel savings and/or changes to other features.
(b) Estimated Owner/Operator Impacts With Respect to HD Pickups and
Vans Using Method A
The owner/operator impacts of the proposed rules are more
straightforward. Table VI-27 shows the impact on the average owner/
operator who buys a new class 2b or 3 vehicle in model year 2030 using
the worst case assumption that manufacturers pass through the entire
cost of technology to the purchaser. (All dollar values are discounted
at a rate of 7 percent per year from the time of purchase, except the
average price increase, which occurs at the time of purchase). The
additional costs associated with increases in taxes, registration fees,
and financing costs are also captured in the table.
Table VI-27--Summary of Individual Owner/Operator Impacts in MY 2030 in the HD Pickup and Van Market Segment
Using Method A and Versus the Dynamic Baseline, Alternative 1\b\ \a\
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Alternative 2 3 4 5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Annual Stringency Increase Increases............ 2.0%/y 2.5%/y 3.5%/y 4.0%/y
Stringency Increase Through MY.................. 2025 2027 2025 2025
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
[[Page 40380]]
Value of Lifetime Fuel Savings (discounted 2012 dollars)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pretax.......................................... 2,068 3,924 4,180 4,676
Tax............................................. 210 409 438 491
Total........................................... 2,278 4,334 4,618 5,168
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Economic Benefits (discounted 2012 dollars)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Mobility Benefit................................ 244 437 472 525
Avoided Refueling Time.......................... 86 164 172 193
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
New Vehicle Purchase (vs. No-Action Alternative)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Avg. Price Increase ($)......................... 578 1,348 1,655 2,080
Avg. Payback (years)............................ 2.5 3 3.4 3.9
Additional costs ($)............................ 120 280 344 432
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Net Lifetime Owner/Operator Benefits (discounted $)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total Net Benefits.............................. 1,910 3,307 3,263 3,374
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Notes:
* All dollar values are discounted at a rate of 7 percent per year from the time of purchase, except the average
price increase, which occurs at the time of purchase).
\a\ For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less
dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
As expected, an owner/operator's lifetime fuel savings increase
monotonically across the alternatives. The mobility benefit in Table
VI-27 refers to the value of additional miles that an individual owner/
operator travels as a result of reduced per-mile travel costs. The
additional miles result in additional fuel consumption and represent
foregone fuel savings, but are valued by owner/operators at the cost of
the additional fuel plus the owner/operator surplus (a measure of the
increase in welfare that owner/operators achieve by having more
mobility). The refueling benefit measures the value of time saved
through reduced refueling events, the result of improved fuel economy
and range in vehicles that have been modified in response to the
standards.
There are some limitations to using payback period as a measure, as
it accounts for fuel expenditures and incremental costs associated with
taxes, registration fees and financing, and increased maintenance
costs, but not the cost of potential repairs or replacements, which may
or may not be more expensive with more advanced technology.
Overall, the average owner/operator is likely to see discounted
lifetime benefits that are multiples of the price increases faced when
purchasing the new vehicle in MY 2030 (or the few model years preceding
2030). In particular, the net present value of future benefits at the
time of purchase are estimated to be 3.5, 3.0, 2.2, and 1.8 times the
price increase of the average new MY2030 vehicle for Alternatives 2-5,
respectively. As Table VI-27 illustrates, the preferred alternative has
the highest ratio of discounted future owner/operator benefits to
owner/operator costs.
(c) Estimated Social and Environmental Impacts for HD Pickups and Vans
Social benefits increase with the increasing stringency of the
alternatives. As in the owner/operator analysis, the net benefits
continue to increase with increasing stringency--suggesting that
benefits are still increasing faster than costs for even the most
stringent alternative.
Table VI-28--Summary of Total Social Costs and Benefits Through MY 2029 in the HD Pickup and Van Market Segment
Using Method A and Versus the Dynamic Baseline, Alternative 1\b\ \a\
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Alternative 2 3 4 5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Annual Stringency Increase...................... 2.0% 2.5% 3.5% 4.0%
Stringency Increase Through MY.................. 2025 2027 2025 2025
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Fuel Purchases ($billion)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pretax Savings.................................. 9.6 15.9 19.1 22.2
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Fuel Externalities ($billion)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Energy Security................................. 0.5 0.9 1.1 1.3
CO2 emissions \b\............................... 1.9 3.2 3.8 4.4
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
VMT-Related Externalities ($billion)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Driving Surplus................................. 1.1 1.8 2.1 2.4
Refueling Surplus............................... 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.9
[[Page 40381]]
Congestion...................................... -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 -0.5
Accidents....................................... -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3
Noise........................................... 0 0 0 0
Fatalities...................................... 0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.5
Criteria Emissions.............................. 0.6 1.1 1.3 1.6
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Technology Costs vs. No-Action ($billion)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Incremental Cost................................ 2.5 5.0 7.2 9.7
Additional Costs................................ 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Benefit Cost Summary ($billion)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total Social Cost............................... 3.3 6.8 9.5 13.0
Total Social Benefit............................ 13.9 22.7 27.4 31.7
Net Social Benefit.............................. 10.6 15.9 17.9 18.7
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Notes:
* All dollar values are discounted at a rate of 3 percent per year from the time of purchase.
\a\ For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less
dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
\b\ Using the 3% average social cost of CO2 value. There are four distinct social cost of CO2 values presented
in the Technical Support Document: Social Cost of Carbon for Regulatory Impact Analysis under Executive Order
12866 (2010 and 2013). The CO2 emissions presented here would be valued lower with one of those other three
values and higher at the other two values.
Table VI-28 provides a summary of benefits and costs, cumulative
from MY2015-MY2029 (although the early years of the series typically
have no incremental costs and benefits over the baseline), for each
alternative. In the social perspective, fuel savings are considered net
of fuel taxes, which are a transfer from purchasers of fuel to society
at large. The energy security component represents the risk premium
associated with exposure to oil price spikes and the economic
consequences of adapting to them. This externality is monetized on a
per-gallon basis, just as the social cost of carbon is used in this
analysis. Just as the previous two externalities are caused by fuel
consumption, others are caused by travel itself. The additional VMT
resulting from the increase in travel demand that occurs when the price
of driving decreases (i.e. the rebound effect), not only leads to
increased mobility (which is a benefit to drivers), but also to
increases in congestion, noise, accidents, and per-mile emissions of
criteria pollutants like carbon monoxide and diesel particulates.
Although increases in VMT lead to increases in tailpipe emissions of
criteria pollutants, the proposed regulations decrease overall
consumption enough that the emissions reductions associated with the
remainder of the fuel cycle (extraction, refining, transportation and
distribution) are large enough to create a net reduction in the
emissions of criteria pollutants (shown below in Table VI-29 and VI-
30).\367\ A full presentation of the costs and benefits, and the
considerations that have gone into each cost and benefit category--such
as how energy security premiums were developed, how the social costs of
carbon and co-pollutant benefits were developed, etc.--is presented in
Section IX of this preamble and in Chapters 7 and 8 of the draft RIA
for each regulated segment (engines, HD pickups and vans, vocational
vehicles, tractors and trailers).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\367\ For a more detailed discussion of the results from the
CAFE Model on the proposed heavy duty pickups and vans regulation's
impact on emissions of CO2 and criteria pollutants, see
NHTSA's accompanying Draft Environmental Impact Statement.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Another side effect of increased VMT is the likely increase in
crashes, which is a function of the total vehicle travel in each year.
Although additional crashes could involve additional fatalities, we
estimate that this potential could be partially offset by the
application of mass reduction to HD pickup trucks and vans, which could
make fatalities less likely in some crashes involving these vehicles.
As Table VI-28 illustrates, the social cost associated with traffic
fatalities is the result of an additional -10 (Alternative 2 leads to a
reduction in fatalities over the baseline, due to the application of
mass reduction technologies), 35, 36, and 66 fatalities for
Alternatives 2-5, respectively. The baseline contains nearly 25,000
fatalities involving 2b/3 vehicles over the same period. The
incremental fatalities associated with Alternative 2-5 are -0.4, 0.1,
0.1, and 0.3 percent relative to the MYs 2015-2029 baseline,
respectively.
The CAFE model was used to estimate the emissions impacts of the
various alternatives that are the result of lower fuel consumption, but
increased vehicle miles traveled for vehicle produced in model years
subject to the standards in the alternatives. Criteria pollutants are
largely the result of vehicle use, and accrue on a per-mile-of-travel
basis, but the alternatives still generally lead to emissions
reductions. Although vehicle use increases under each of the
alternatives, upstream emissions associated with fuel refining,
transportation and distribution are reduced for each gallon of fuel
saved and that savings is larger than the incremental increase in
emissions associated with increased travel. The net of the two factors
is a savings of criteria (and other) pollutant emissions.
[[Page 40382]]
Table VI-29--Summary of Environmental Impacts Through MY2029 in the HD Pickup and Van Market Segment, Using
Method A and Versus the Dynamic Baseline, Alternative 1b a
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Alternative 2 3 4 5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Annual Stringency Increase...................... 2.0% 2.5% 3.5% 4.0%
Stringency Increase Through MY.................. 2025 2027 2025 2025
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Greenhouse Gas Emissions vs. No-Action Alternative
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CO2 (MMT)....................................... 54 91 110 127
CH4 and N2O (tons).............................. 65,600 111,400 133,700 155,300
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Other Emissions vs. No-Action Alternative (tons)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CO.............................................. 10,400 20,700 25,800 30,400
VOC and NOX..................................... 23,800 43,600 53,500 62,200
PM.............................................. 1,470 2,550 3,090 3,590
SO2............................................. 11,400 19,900 24,100 28,000
Air Toxics...................................... 44 47 49 55
Diesel PM10..................................... 2,470 4,350 5,300 6,160
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Other Emissions vs. No-Action Alternative (% reduction)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CO.............................................. 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4
VOC and NOX..................................... 1.1 2.1 2.6 3.0
PM.............................................. 1.7 3.0 3.6 4.2
SO2............................................. 2.9 5.1 6.2 7.2
Air Toxics...................................... 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2
Diesel PM10..................................... 2.7 4.8 5.9 6.8
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Notes:
\a\ For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less
dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
In addition to comparing environmental impacts of the alternatives
against a dynamic baseline that shows some improvement over time,
compared to today's fleet, even in the absence of the alternatives, the
environmental impacts from the Method A analysis were compared against
a flat baseline. This other comparison is summarized below, but both
comparisons are discussed in greater detail in the Draft EIS.
Table VI-30--Summary of Environmental Impacts Through MY2029 in the HD Pickup and Van Market Segment, Using
Method A and Versus the Flat Baseline, Alternative 1\a\
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Alternative 2 3 4 5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Annual Stringency Increase...................... 2.0% 2.5% 3.5% 4.0%
Stringency Increase Through MY.................. 2025 2027 2025 2025
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Greenhouse Gas Emissions vs. No-Action Alternative
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CO2 (MMT)....................................... 66 105 127 142
CH4 and N2O (tons).............................. 79,700 127,400 154,800 172,800
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Other Emissions vs. No-Action Alternative (tons)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CO.............................................. 11,630 22,160 28,030 32,370
VOC and NOX..................................... 28,280 48,770 60,180 68,050
PM.............................................. 1,780 2,900 3,550 3,980
SO2............................................. 13,780 22,580 27,660 31,020
Air Toxics...................................... 60 65 72 73
Diesel PM10..................................... 2,980 4,930 6,060 6,810
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Other Emissions vs. No-Action Alternative (% reduction)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CO.............................................. 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4
VOC and NOX..................................... 1.4 2.3 2.9 3.3
PM.............................................. 2.1 3.4 4.2 4.7
SO2............................................. 3.5 5.7 7.0 7.9
Air Toxics...................................... 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Diesel PM10..................................... 3.3 5.4 6.7 7.5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Notes:
\a\ For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less
dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
[[Page 40383]]
(6) Sensitivity Analysis Evaluating Different Inputs to the DOT CAFE
Model
This section describes some of the principal sensitivity results,
obtained by running the various scenarios describing the policy
alternatives with alternative inputs. OMB Circular A-4 indicates that
``it is usually necessary to provide a sensitivity analysis to reveal
whether, and to what extent, the results of the analysis are sensitive
to plausible changes in the main assumptions and numeric inputs.''
\368\ Considering this guidance, a number of sensitivity analyses were
performed using analysis Method A to examine important assumptions and
inputs, including the following, all of which are discussed in greater
detail in the accompanying RIA:
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\368\ Available at https://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/circulars_a004_a-4/.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
1. Payback Period: In addition to the 0 and 6 month payback periods
discussed above, also evaluated cases involving payback periods of 12,
18, and 24 months.
2. Fuel Prices: Evaluated cases involving fuel prices from the AEO
2014 low and high oil price scenarios. (See AEO-Low and AEO-High in the
tables.)
3. Fuel Prices and Payback Period: Evaluated one side case
involving a 0 month payback period combined with fuel prices from the
AEO 2014 low oil price scenario, and one side case with a 24 month
payback period combined with fuel prices from the AEO 2014 high oil
price scenario.
4. Benefits to Vehicle Buyers: The main Method A analysis assumes
there is no loss in value to owner/operators resulting from vehicles
that have an increase in price and higher fuel economy. NHTSA performed
this sensitivity analysis assuming that there is a 25, or 50 percent
loss in value to owner/operators--equivalent to the assumption that
owner/operators will only value the calculated benefits they will
achieve at 75, or 50 percent, respectively, of the main analysis
estimates. (These are labeled as 75pctOwner/operatorBenefit and
50pctOwner/operatorBenefit.)
5. Value of Avoided GHG Emissions: Evaluated side cases involving
lower and higher valuation of avoided CO2 emissions,
expressed as the social cost of carbon (SCC).
6. Rebound Effect: Evaluated side cases involving rebound effect
values of 5 percent, 15 percent, and 20 percent. (These are labeled as
05PctReboundEffect, 15PctReboundEffect and 20PctReboundEffect).
7. RPE-based Markup: Evaluated a side case using a retail price
equivalent (RPE) markup factor of 1.5 for non-electrification
technologies, which is consistent with the NAS estimation for
technologies manufactured by suppliers, and a RPE markup factor of 1.33
for electrification technologies (mild and strong HEV).
8. ICM-based Post-Warranty Repair Costs: NHTSA evaluated a side
case that scaled the frequency of repair by vehicle survival rates,
assumes that per-vehicle repair costs during the post-warranty period
are the same as in the in-warranty period, and that repair costs are
proportional to incremental direct costs (therefore vehicles with
additional components will have increased repair costs).
9. Mass-Safety Effect: Evaluated side cases with the mass-safety
impact coefficient at the values defining the 5th and 95th percent
points of the confidence interval estimated in the underlying
statistical analysis. (These are labeled MassFatalityCoeff05pct and
MassFatalityCoeff95pct.)
10. Strong HEVs: Evaluated a side case in which strong HEVs were
excluded from the set of technology estimated to be available for HD
pickups and vans through model year 2030. As in Section VI.C. (8), this
``no SHEV'' case allowed turbocharging and downsizing on all GM vans to
provide a lower-cost path for compliance.
11. Diesel Downsizing: Evaluated a side case in which downsizing of
diesel engines was estimated to be more widely available to HD pickups
and vans.
12. Technology Effectiveness: Evaluated side cases involving inputs
reflecting lower and higher impacts of technologies on fuel
consumption.
13. Technology Direct Costs: Evaluated side cases involving inputs
reflecting lower and higher direct incremental costs for fuel-saving
technologies.
14. Fleet Mix: Evaluated a side case in which the shares of
individual vehicle models and configurations were kept constant at
estimated current levels.
Table VI-31 below, summarizes key metrics for each of the cases
included in the sensitivity analysis using Method A for the proposed
alternative. The table reflects the percent change in the metrics
(columns) relative to the main analysis, due to the particular
sensitivity case (rows) for the proposed alternative 3. For each
sensitivity run, the change in the metric can we described as the
difference between the baseline and the preferred alternative for the
sensitivity case, minus the difference between the preferred
alternative and the baseline in the main analysis, divided by the
difference between the preferred alternative and the baseline in the
main analysis. Or,
[GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] TP13JY15.012
Each metric represents the sum of the impacts of the preferred
alternative over the model years 2018-2029, and the percent changes in
the table represent percent changes to those sums. More detailed
results for all alternatives are available in the accompanying RIA
Chapter 10.
Table VI-31--Sensitivity Analysis Results From CAFE Model in the HD Pickup and Van Market Segment Using Method A and Versus the Dynamic Baseline,
Alternative 1b (2.5% Growth in Stringency: Cells Are Percent Change From Base Case) \a\
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Fuel savings CO2 savings Fuel savings Social costs Social Social net
Sensitivity case (gallons) (%) (MMT) (%) ($) (%) (%) benefits (%) benefits (%)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
0 Month Payback......................................... 14.0 14.5 15.1 5.6 15.1 18.2
[[Page 40384]]
12 Month Payback........................................ -4.8 -4.7 -4.5 -2.5 -4.7 -5.4
18 Month Payback........................................ -29.2 -28.1 -26.5 -14.1 -26.8 -31.1
24 Month Payback........................................ -42.9 -42.4 -41.9 -23.2 -42.1 -48.4
AEO-Low................................................. 3.3 3.5 -27.9 -10.8 -22.2 -26.1
AEO-High................................................ -7.0 -7.2 23.3 1.4 19.5 25.6
AEO-Low, 0 Month Payback................................ 18.6 19.3 -16.5 -3.4 -10.1 -12.3
AEO-High, 24 Month Payback.............................. -63.8 -64.6 -54.4 -49.9 -55.7 -57.7
50pct Owner/operator Benefit............................ 0.0 0.0 -50.0 0.0 -34.6 -46.2
75pct Owner/operator Benefit............................ 0.0 0.0 -25.0 0.0 -17.3 -23.1
Low SCC................................................. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -10.6 -14.1
Low SCC, 0 Month Payback................................ 14.0 14.5 15.1 5.6 2.9 2.0
High SCC................................................ 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.8 10.4
High SCC, 0 Month Payback............................... 14.0 14.5 15.1 5.6 24.0 30.1
Very High SCC........................................... 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 28.7 38.4
Very High SCC, 0 Month Payback.......................... 14.0 14.5 15.1 5.6 48.0 62.2
05 Pct Rebound Effect................................... 4.6 4.6 4.6 -12.9 0.4 4.8
15 Pct Rebound Effect................................... -4.6 -4.6 -4.6 12.9 -0.4 -4.8
20 Pct Rebound Effect................................... -9.1 -9.2 -9.2 25.7 -0.8 -9.7
RPE-Based Markup........................................ -3.2 -1.5 0.3 31.4 -0.1 -10.6
Mass Fatality Coeff 05pct............................... 0.0 0.0 0.0 -23.6 0.0 7.9
Mass Fatality Coeff 95pct............................... 0.0 0.0 0.0 23.9 0.0 -8.0
NoSHEVs................................................. -6.7 -5.8 -5.0 2.3 -5.1 -7.6
NoSHEVs, 0 Month Payback................................ 8.2 9.8 11.5 -1.2 11.3 15.4
Lower Effectiveness..................................... -7.8 -7.8 -8.1 39.5 -8.0 -23.9
Higher Effectiveness.................................... -10.6 -10.3 -10.0 -23.3 -10.2 -5.8
Lower Direct Costs...................................... 0.9 2.7 4.8 18.4 4.3 -0.4
Higher Direct Costs..................................... -4.1 -3.8 -3.5 75.3 -3.8 -30.3
Wider Diesel Downsizing................................. -1.5 -1.0 -0.6 -10.3 -0.8 2.4
07 Pct Discount Rate.................................... 0.0 0.0 -100.0 -41.7 -100.0 -119.5
07 Pct DR, 0 Month Payback.............................. 14.0 14.5 -37.9 -30.7 -30.7 -30.7
Allow Gas To Diesel..................................... 15.5 5.3 -100.0 16.8 -100.0 -139.1
Allow Gas To Diesel, 0 Month Payback.................... 32.1 22.6 14.5 46.8 17.0 7.0
flat mix after 2016..................................... 1.1 0.9 0.7 2.6 0.8 0.2
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note:
\a\ For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic
baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
For some of the cases for which results are presented above, the
sensitivity of results to changes in inputs is simple, direct, and
easily observed. For example, changes to valuation of avoided GHG
emissions impact only this portion of the estimated economic benefits;
manufacturers' responses and corresponding costs are not impacted.
Similarly, a higher discount rate does not affect physical quantities
saved (gallons of fuel and metric tons of CO2 in the table),
but reduces the value of the costs and benefits attributable to the
proposed standards in an intuitive way. Some other cases warrant closer
consideration:
First, cases involving alternatives to the reference six-month
payback period involve different degrees of fuel consumption
improvement, and these differences are greatest in the no-action
alternative defining the baseline. Because all estimated impacts of the
proposed standards are shown as incremental values relative to this
baseline, longer payback periods correspond to smaller estimates of
incremental impacts, as fuel economy increasingly improves in the
absence of the rule and manufacturers are compelled to add less
technology in order to comply with the standards.
Second, cases involving different fuel prices similarly involve
different degrees of fuel economy improvement in the absence of the
standard, as more, or less, improvement occurs as a result of more, or
fewer, technologies appearing cost effective to owner/operators. Lower
fuel prices correspond to increases in fuel savings on a volumetric
basis, as the standard is responsible for a greater amount of the fuel
economy improvement, but the value of fuel savings decreases because
each gallon saved is worth less when fuel prices are low. Higher fuel
prices correspond to reductions in the volumetric fuel savings
attributable to the proposed standards, but lead to increases in the
value of fuel saved because each gallon saved is worth more when fuel
prices are high.
Third, because the payback period and fuel price inputs work in
opposing directions, the relative magnitude of each is important to
consider for the combined sensitivity cases. While the low price and 0-
month payback case leads to significant volumetric savings compared to
the main analysis, the low fuel price is still sufficient to produce a
negative change in net benefits. Similarly, the high price and 24-month
payback case results in large reductions to volumetric savings that can
be attributed to the proposed standards, but the presence of high fuel
prices is not sufficient to lead to increases in either the dollar
value of fuel savings or net social benefits.
Fourth, the cases involving different inputs defining the
availability of some technologies do not impact equally the estimated
impacts across all manufacturers. Section C.8 above
[[Page 40385]]
provides a discussion of a sensitivity analysis that excludes strong
hybrids and includes the use of downsized turbocharged engines in vans
currently equipped with large V-8 engines. The modeling results for
this analysis are provided in Section C.8 and in the table above. The
no strong hybrid analysis shows that GM could comply with the proposed
preferred Alternative 3 without strong hybrids based on the use of
turbo downsizing on all of their HD gasoline vans. Alternatively, when
the analysis is modified to allow for wider application of diesel
engines, strong HEV application for GM drops slightly (from 19 percent
to 17 percent) in MY2030, average per-vehicle costs drop slightly (by
about $50), but MY2030 additional penetration rates of diesel engines
increase by about 10 percent. Manufacturer-specific model results
accompanying today's rules show the extent to which individual
manufacturers' potential responses to the standards vary with these
alternative assumptions regarding the availability and applicability of
fuel-saving technologies. However, across all of these sensitivity
cases, the model projects that social costs increase (as a result of
increases in technology costs) when manufacturers choose to comply with
the proposed regulations without the use of strong hybrids.
Fifth, the cases that vary the effectiveness and direct cost of
available technologies produce nuanced results in the context of even
the 0-month payback case. In the case of effectiveness changes, both
sensitivity cases result in reductions to the volumetric fuel savings
attributable to the proposal; lower effectiveness because the
technologies applied in response to the standards save less fuel, and
higher effectiveness because more of the increase in fuel economy
occurs in the baseline. However, for both cases, social costs (a strong
proxy for technology costs) move in the intuitive direction.
The cases that vary direct costs show volumetric fuel savings
increasing under lower direct technology costs despite additional fuel
economy improvements in the baseline, as more aggressive technology
becomes cost effective. Higher direct costs lead to decreases in
volumetric fuel savings, as more of the fuel economy improvement can be
attributed to the rule. In both cases, social costs (as a result of
technology costs) move in the intuitive direction.
If, instead of using the values in the main analysis, each
sensitivity case were itself the main analysis, the costs and benefits
attributable to the proposed rule would be as they appear in Table VI-
32, below.
Table VI-32--Costs and Benefits of Proposed Standards for HD Pickups and Vans Under Alternative Assumptions
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Fuel savings Social Net social
Sensitivity case (billion CO2 reduction Fuel savings Social costs benefits benefits
gallons) (MMT) ($billion) ($billion) ($billion) ($billion)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
6 Month Payback (main).................................. 7.8 94.1 15.9 5.5 23.5 18.0
0 Month Payback......................................... 8.9 107.7 18.3 5.8 27.0 21.3
12 Month Payback........................................ 7.4 87.2 15.2 5.6 21.9 16.3
18 Month Payback........................................ 5.5 65.8 11.7 4.9 16.8 11.9
24 Month Payback........................................ 4.5 52.7 9.2 4.4 13.3 8.9
AEO-Low................................................. 8.1 94.7 11.5 5.1 17.8 12.7
AEO-High................................................ 7.3 84.9 19.6 5.8 27.4 21.6
AEO-Low, 0 Month Payback................................ 9.3 109.1 13.3 5.6 20.6 15.1
AEO-High, 24 Month Payback.............................. 2.8 32.4 7.2 2.9 10.2 7.3
50pct Owner/operator Benefit............................ 7.8 91.5 8.0 5.8 15.0 9.2
75pct Owner/operator Benefit............................ 7.8 91.5 11.9 5.8 19.0 13.2
Low SCC................................................. 7.8 91.5 15.9 5.8 20.5 14.8
Low SCC, 0 Month Payback................................ 8.9 104.7 18.3 6.1 23.6 17.5
High SCC................................................ 7.8 91.5 15.9 5.8 24.7 19.0
High SCC, 0 Month Payback............................... 8.9 104.7 18.3 6.1 28.5 22.4
Very High SCC........................................... 7.8 91.5 15.9 5.8 29.5 23.8
Very High SCC, 0 Month Payback.......................... 8.9 104.7 18.3 6.1 34.0 27.9
05 Pct Rebound Effect................................... 8.2 95.7 16.6 5.0 23.0 18.0
15 Pct Rebound Effect................................... 7.5 87.2 15.2 6.5 22.9 16.4
20 Pct Rebound Effect................................... 7.1 83.0 14.4 7.2 22.8 15.5
RPE-Based Markup........................................ 7.6 90.1 16.0 7.6 22.9 15.4
Mass Fatality Coeff 05pct............................... 7.8 91.5 15.9 4.4 23.0 18.5
Mass Fatality Coeff 95pct............................... 7.8 91.5 15.9 7.1 23.0 15.8
NoSHEVs................................................. 7.2 84.3 14.6 8.0 21.1 13.1
NoSHEVs, 0 Month Payback................................ 7.0 82.0 14.3 4.4 20.6 16.2
Lower Effectiveness..................................... 7.9 94.0 16.7 6.8 23.9 17.1
Higher Effectiveness.................................... 7.5 88.0 15.3 10.1 22.1 12.0
Lower Direct Costs...................................... 7.7 90.5 15.8 5.2 22.8 17.6
Higher Direct Costs..................................... 7.8 91.5 8.5 3.8 13.8 10.0
Wider Diesel Downsizing................................. 8.9 104.7 9.9 4.0 15.9 11.9
07 Pct Discount Rate.................................... 9.0 96.3 15.3 7.2 22.7 15.5
07 Pct DR, 0 Month Payback.............................. 10.3 112.2 18.2 8.5 26.9 18.4
Allow Gas To Diesel..................................... 7.9 92.3 16.0 5.9 23.1 17.2
Allow Gas To Diesel, 0 Month Payback.................... 7.3 85.8 15.1 6.9 21.7 14.8
Flat mix after 2016..................................... 8.4 99.8 17.6 7.4 25.4 17.9
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(7) Uncertainty Analysis
As in previous rules, NHTSA has conducted an uncertainty analysis
to determine the extent to which uncertainty about input assumptions
could impact the costs and benefits attributable to the proposed rule.
Unlike the preceding sensitivity analysis, which is useful for
understanding how
[[Page 40386]]
alternative values of a single input assumption may influence the
estimated impacts of the proposed standards, the uncertainty analysis
considers multiple states of the world, characterized by a distribution
of specific values of all relevant inputs, based on their relative
probability of occurrence. A sensitivity analysis varies a single
parameter of interest, holding all others constant at whatever nominal
values are used to generate the single point estimate in the main
analysis, and measures the resulting deviation. However, the
uncertainty analysis allows all of those parameters to vary
simultaneously--relaxing the assumption that ``all else is equal''.
Each trial, of which there are 14,000 in this analysis, represents
a different state of the world in which the standards are implemented.
To gauge the robustness of the estimates of impacts in the proposal,
NHTSA varied technology costs and effectiveness, fuel prices, market
demand for fuel economy improvements in the absence of the rule, the
amount of additional driving associated with fuel economy improvements
(the rebound effect), and the on-road gaps between realized fuel
economy and laboratory test values for gasoline and diesel vehicles.
The shapes and types of the probability distributions used in the
analysis vary by uncertainty parameter, though the costs and
effectiveness values for technologies are sampled as groups to minimize
issues associated with interdependence. The most important input to the
uncertainty analysis, fuel prices (which drive the majority of benefits
from the proposed standards), are drawn from a range of fuel prices
characterized by permutations of the Low, Reference, and High fuel
price cases in the Annual Energy Outlook 2014.
[GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] TP13JY15.013
Figure VI-7 displays the distribution of net benefits estimated by
the ensemble of simulation runs. As Figure VI-7 indicates, the analysis
produces a wide distribution of possible outcomes that are much broader
than the range of estimates characterized by only the difference
between the more and less dynamic baselines. While the expected value,
the probability-weighted average outcome, is only about 70 percent of
the net benefits estimated in the main analysis, almost all of the
trials produce positive net benefits. In fact, the distribution
suggests there is only a one percent chance of the proposal producing
negative net benefits for HD pickups and vans. So while the estimated
net benefits in the main analysis may be higher than the expected value
when uncertainty is considered, net benefits at least as high as those
estimated in the main analysis are still 20 times as likely as an
outcome that results in net costs.
Figure VI-8 shows the distribution of payback periods (in years)
for Model Year 2029 trucks across 14,000 simulation runs. The ``payback
period'' typically refers to the number of years of vehicle use that
occur before the savings on fuel expenditures offset the additional
technology cost associated with improved fuel economy. As Figure VI-8
illustrates, the expected incremental technology cost of both Phase 1
and Phase 2 is eclipsed by the value of fuel savings by year three of
ownership in most cases
[[Page 40387]]
[GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] TP13JY15.014
This is an important metric for owner/operator acceptability and,
though Figure VI-8 illustrates the long right tail of the payback
distribution (where payback periods are likely to be unacceptably
long), fewer than ten percent of the trials result in payback periods
longer than four years. This suggests that, even in the face of
uncertainty about future fuel prices and fuel economy in real-world
driving conditions, buyers of the vehicles that are modified to comply
with the requirements of the proposal will still see fuel savings
greater than their additional vehicle cost in a relatively short period
of time. As one would expect, the technologies used in Phase 1 of the
MDHD program are likely to be more cost effective and serve to lower
the expected payback period, even compared to the main analysis of
Phase 2.
E. Compliance and Flexibility for HD Pickup and Van Standards
(1) Averaging, Banking, and Trading
The Phase 1 program established substantial flexibility in how
manufacturers can choose to implement EPA and NHTSA standards while
preserving the benefits for the environment and for energy consumption
and security. Primary among these flexibilities are the gradual phase-
in schedule, and the corporate fleet average approach which encompasses
averaging, banking and trading described below. See Section IV.A. of
the Phase 1 preamble (76 FR 57238) for additional discussion of the
Phase 1 averaging, banking, and trading and Section IV.A (3) of the
Phase 1 preamble (76 FR 57243) for a discussion of the credit
calculation methodology.
Manufacturers in this category typically offer gasoline and diesel
versions of HD pickup and van vehicle models. The agencies established
chassis-based Phase 1 standards that are equivalent in terms of
stringency for gasoline and diesel vehicles and are proposing the same
approach to stringency for Phase 2. In Phase 1, the agencies
established that HD pickups and vans are treated as one large averaging
set that includes both gasoline and diesel vehicles \369\ and the
agencies are proposing to maintain this averaging set approach for
Phase 2.
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\369\ See 40 CFR 1037.104(d) and the proposed 40 CFR 86.1819-
14(d). Credits may not be transferred or traded between this vehicle
averaging set and loose engines or other heavy-duty categories, as
discussed in Section I.
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As explained in Section II.C(3) of the Phase 1 preamble (76 FR
57167), and in Section VI.B (3) above, the program is structured so
that final compliance is determined at the end of each model year, when
production for the model year is complete. At that point, each
manufacturer calculates production-weighted fleet average
CO2 emission and fuel consumption rates along with its
production-weighted fleet average standard. Under this approach, a
manufacturer's HD pickup and van fleet that achieves a fleet average
CO2 or fuel consumption level better than its standard would
be allowed to generate credits. Conversely, if the fleet average
CO2 or fuel consumption level does not meet its standard,
the fleet would incur debits (also referred to as a shortfall).
A manufacturer whose fleet generates credits in a given model year
will have several options for using those credits to offset emissions
from other HD pickups and vans. These options include credit carry-
back, credit carry-forward, and credit trading within the HD pickup and
van averaging set. These types of credit provisions also exist in the
light-duty 2012-2016 and 2017-2025 MY vehicle
[[Page 40388]]
rules, as well as many other mobile source standards issued by EPA
under the CAA. The manufacturer will be able to carry back credits to
offset a deficit that had accrued in a prior model year and was
subsequently carried over to the current model year, with a limitation
on the carry-back of credits to three model years. After satisfying any
need to offset pre-existing deficits, a manufacturer may bank remaining
credits for use in future years, with a limitation on the carry-forward
of credits to five model years. Averaging vehicle credits with engine
credits or between vehicle weight classes is not allowed, as discussed
in Section I. The agencies are not proposing changes to any of these
provisions for the Phase 2 program.
While the agencies are proposing to retain 5 year carry-forward of
credits for all HD sectors, the agencies request comment on the merits
of a temporary credit carry-forward period of longer than 5 years for
HD pickups and vans, allowing Phase 1 credits generated in MYs 2014-
2019 to be used through MY 2027. EPA included a similar provision in
the MY 2017-2025 light-duty vehicle rule, which allows a one-time
credit carry-forward of MY 2010-2015 credits to be carried forward
through MY 2021.\370\ Such a credit carry-forward extension for HD
pickups and vans may provide manufacturers with additional flexibility
during the transition to the proposed Phase 2 standards. A temporary
credit carry-forward period of longer than five years for Phase 1
credits may help manufacturers resolve lead-time issues they might face
as the proposed more stringent Phase 2 standards phase-in and help
avoid negative impacts to their product redesign cycles which tend to
be longer than those for light-duty vehicles.
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\370\ 77 FR 62788, October 15, 2012.
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As discussed in Section VI.B.4., EPA and NHTSA are proposing to
change the HD pickup and van useful life for GHG emissions and fuel
consumption from the current 11 years/120,000 miles to 15 years/150,000
miles to make the useful life for GHG emissions consistent with the
useful life of criteria pollutants recently updated in the Tier 3 rule.
As shown in the Equation VI-1 credits calculation formula below,
established by the Phase 1 rule, useful life in miles is a
multiplicative factor included in the calculation of CO2 and
fuel consumption credits. In order to ensure banked credits maintain
their value in the transition from Phase 1 to Phase 2, NHTSA and EPA
propose an adjustment factor of 1.25 (i.e, 150,000/120,000) for credits
that are carried forward from Phase 1 to the MY 2021 and later Phase 2
standards. Without this adjustment factor the proposed change in useful
life would effectively result in a discount of banked credits that are
carried forward from Phase 1 to Phase 2, which is not the intent of the
change in the useful life. Consider, for example, a vehicle
configuration with annual sales of 1,000 vehicles that was 10 g/mile
below the standard. Under Phase 1, those vehicles would generate 1,200
Mg of credit (10x1,000x120,000/1,000,000). Under Phase 2, the same
vehicles would generate 1,500 Mg of credit (10x1,000x150,000/
1,000,000). The agencies do not believe that this proposed adjustment
results in a loss of program benefits because there is little or no
deterioration anticipated for CO2 emissions and fuel
consumption over the life of the vehicles. Also, as described in the
standards and feasibility sections above, the carry-forward of credits
is an integral part of the program, helping to smoothing the transition
to the new Phase 2 standards. The agencies believe that effectively
discounting carry-forward credits from Phase 1 to Phase 2 would be
unnecessary and could negatively impact the feasibility of the proposed
Phase 2 standards. EPA and NHTSA request comment on all aspects of the
averaging, banking, and trading program.
[GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] TP13JY15.096
Where:
CO2 Std = Fleet average CO2 standard (g/mi)
FC Std = Fleet average fuel consumption standard (gal/100 mile)
CO2 Act = Fleet average actual CO2 value (g/
mi)
FC Act = Fleet average actual fuel consumption value (gal/100 mile)
Volume = the total production of vehicles in the regulatory category
UL = the useful life for the regulatory category (miles)
(2) Advanced Technology Credits
The Phase 1 program included on an interim basis advanced
technology credits for MYs 2014 and later in the form of a multiplier
of 1.5 for the following technologies:
Hybrid powertrain designs that include energy storage systems
Waste heat recovery
All-electric vehicles
Fuel cell vehicles
The advanced technology credit program is intended to encourage
early development of technologies that are not yet commercially
available. This multiplier approach means that each advanced technology
vehicle would count as 1.5 vehicles in a manufacturer's compliance
calculation. A manufacturer also has the option to subtract these
vehicles out of its fleet and determine their performance as a separate
fleet calculating advanced technology credits that can be used for all
other HD vehicle categories, but these credits would, of course, not
then be reflected in the manufacturer's conventional pickup and van
category credit balance. The credits are thus `special' in that they
can be applied across the entire heavy-duty sector, unlike the ABT and
early credits discussed above and the proposed off-cycle technology
credits discussed in the following subsection. The agencies also capped
the amount of advanced credits that can be transferred into any
averaging set into any model year at 60,000 Mg to prevent market
distortions.
The advanced technology multipliers were included on an interim
basis in the Phase 1 program and the agencies are proposing to end the
incentive multipliers beginning in MY 2021, when the more stringent
Phase 2 standards are proposed to begin phase-in. The agencies are
proposing a similar approach for the other HD sectors as
[[Page 40389]]
discussed in Section I.C. (1). The advanced technology incentives are
intended to promote the commercialization of technologies that have the
potential to provide substantially better GHG emissions and fuel
consumption if they were able to overcome major near-term market
barriers. However, the incentives are not intended to be a permanent
part of the program as they result in a decrease in overall GHG
emissions and fuel consumption benefits associated with the program
when used. More importantly, as explained in Section I. above, the
agencies are already predicating the stringency of the proposed
standards on development and deployment of two of these Phase 1
advanced technologies (waste heat recovery and strong hybrid
technology), so that it would be inappropriate (and essentially a
windfall) to include credits for use of these technologies in Phase
2.\371\
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\371\ EPA and NHTSA similarly included temporary advanced
technology multipliers in the light-duty 2017-2025 program,
believing it was worthwhile to forego modest additional emissions
reductions and fuel consumption improvements in the near-term in
order to lay the foundation for the potential for much larger
``game-changing'' GHG and oil consumption reductions in the longer
term. The incentives in the light-duty vehicle program are available
through the 2021 model year. See 77 FR 62811, October 15, 2012.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
As discussed in Section I, the agencies request comment on the
proposed approach for the advanced technology multipliers for HD
pickups and vans as well as the other HD sectors, including comments on
whether or not the credits should be extended to later model years for
more advanced technologies such as EVs and fuel cell vehicles. These
technologies are not projected to be part of the technology path used
by manufacturer to meet the proposed Phase 2 standards for HD pickups
and vans. Waste heat recovery is also not projected to be used for HD
pickups and vans in the time frame of the proposed rules. EV and fuel
cell technologies would presumably need to overcome the highest hurdles
to commercialization for HD pickups and vans in the time frame of the
proposed rules, and also have the potential to provide the highest
level of benefit. We welcome comments on the need for such incentives,
including information on why an incentive for specific technologies in
this time frame may be warranted, recognizing that the incentive would
result in reduced benefits in terms of CO2 emissions and
fuel use due to the Phase 2 program.
NHTSA and EPA established that for Phase 1, EVs and other zero
tailpipe emission vehicles be factored into the fleet average GHG and
fuel consumption calculations based on the diesel standards targets for
their model year and work factor. The agencies also established for
electric and zero emission vehicles that in the credits equation the
actual emissions and fuel consumption performance be set to zero (i.e.
that emissions be considered on a tailpipe basis exclusively) rather
than including upstream emissions or energy consumption associated with
electricity generation. As we look to the future, we are not projecting
the adoption of electric HD pickups and vans into the market;
therefore, we believe that this provision is still appropriate. Unlike
the MY2012-2016 light-duty rule, which adopted a cap whereby upstream
emissions would be counted after a certain volume of sales (see 75 FR
25434-25436), we believe there is no need to propose a cap for HD
pickups and vans because of the infrequent projected use of EV
technologies in the Phase 2 timeframe. In Phase 2, we propose to
continue to deem electric vehicles as having zero CO2,
CH4, and N2O emissions as well as zero fuel
consumption. We welcome comments on this approach. See also Section I
for a discussion of the treatment of lifecycle emissions for
alternative fuel vehicles and Section XI for the treatment of lifecycle
emissions for natural gas specifically.
(3) Off-Cycle Technology Credits
The Phase 1 program established an opportunity for manufacturers to
generate credits by applying innovative technologies whose
CO2 and fuel consumption benefits are not captured on the 2-
cycle test procedure (i.e., off-cycle).\372\ As discussed in Sections
III.F. and V.E.3., the agencies are proposing approaches for Phase 2
off-cycle technology credits for tractors and vocational vehicles with
proposed provisions tailored for those sectors. For HD pickups and
vans, the approach for off-cycle technologies established in Phase 1 is
similar to that established for light-duty vehicles due to the use of
the same basic chassis test procedures. The agencies are proposing to
retain this approach for Phase 2. To generate credits, manufacturers
are required to submit data and a methodology for determining the level
of credits for the off-cycle technology subject to EPA and NHTSA review
and approval. The application for off-cycle technology credits is also
subject to a public evaluation process and comment period. EPA and
NHTSA would approve the methodology and credits only if certain
criteria were met. Baseline emissions and fuel consumption \373\ and
control emissions and fuel consumption need to be clearly demonstrated
over a wide range of real world driving conditions and over a
sufficient number of vehicles to address issues of uncertainty with the
data. Data must be on a vehicle model-specific basis unless a
manufacturer demonstrated model-specific data were not necessary. Once
a complete application is submitted by the manufacturer, the
regulations require that the agencies publish a notice of availability
in the Federal Register notifying the public of a manufacturer's
proposed off-cycle credit calculation methodology and provide
opportunity for comment.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\372\ See 76 FR 57251, September 15, 2011, 40 CFR
1037.104(d)(13), and the proposed 40 CFR 86.1819-14(d)(13).
\373\ Fuel consumption is derived from measured CO2
emissions using conversion factors of 8,887 g CO2/gallon
for gasoline and 10,180 g CO2/gallon for diesel fuel.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
As noted above, the approach finalized for HD pickups and vans
paralleled provisions for off-cycle credits in the MY 2012-2016 light-
duty vehicle GHG program.\374\ In the MY 2017-2025 light-duty vehicle
program, EPA revised the off-cycle credits program for light-duty
vehicles to streamline the credits process. In addition to the process
established in the MY 2012-2016 rule, EPA added a list or ``menu'' of
pre-approved off-cycle technologies and associated credit levels.\375\
Manufacturers may use the pre-defined off-cycle technology menu to
generate light-duty vehicle credits by demonstrating at time of
certification that the vehicles are equipped with the technology
without providing additional test data. Different levels of credits are
provided for cars and light trucks in the light-duty program. NHTSA
also included these credits in the CAFE program (in gallons/mile
equivalent) starting with MY 2017. The list of pre-approved off-cycle
technologies for light-duty vehicles is shown below.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\374\ See 75 FR 25440, May 7, 2010 and 40 CFR 86.1869-12(d).
\375\ 77 FR 62832-62839, October 15, 2012.
[[Page 40390]]
Table VI-33--Pre-Approved Off-Cycle Technologies for Light-Duty Vehicles
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pre-approved technologies
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
High Efficiency Exterior Lighting (at 100W)
Waste Heat Recovery (at 100W; scalable)
Solar Roof Panels (for 75 W, battery charging only)
Solar Roof Panels (for 75 W, active cabin ventilation plus battery
charging)
Active Aerodynamic Improvements (scalable)
Engine Idle Start-Stop w/heater circulation system
Engine Idle Start-Stop without/heater circulation system
Active Transmission Warm-Up
Active Engine Warm-Up
Solar/Thermal Control
------------------------------------------------------------------------
The agencies initially note that where vehicles are not chassis-
certified, but rather evaluate compliance using the GEM simulation
tool, with the proposed modifications to GEM, many more technologies
(especially those related to engine and transmission improvements) will
now be `on-cycle'--evaluated directly by the GEM compliance tool.
However, with respect to the proposed standards which would be chassis-
certified--namely, the standards for heavy duty pickups and vans, the
effectiveness of some technologies will be only partially captured (or
not captured at all). EPA and NHTSA are requesting comment on
establishing a pre-defined technology menu list for HD pickups and
vans. The list for HD pickups and vans could include some or all of the
technologies listed in Table VI-33. As with the light-duty program, the
pre-defined list may simplify the process for generating off-cycle
credits and may further encourage the introduction of these
technologies. However, the appropriate default level of credits for the
heavier vehicles would need to be established. The agencies request
comments with supporting HD pickup and van specific data and analysis
that would provide a substantive basis for appropriate adjustments to
the credits levels for the HD pickup and van category. The data and
analysis would need to demonstrate that the pre-defined credit level
represents real-world emissions reductions and fuel consumption
improvements not captured by the 2-cycle test procedures.
As with the light-duty vehicle program, the agencies would also
consider including a cap on credits generated from a pre-defined list
established for HD pickups and vans. The cap for the light-duty vehicle
program is 10 g/mile (and gallons/mi equivalent) applied on a
manufacturer fleet-wide basis.\376\ The 10 g/mile cap limits the total
off-cycle credits allowed based on the pre-defined list across the
manufacturer's light-duty vehicle fleet. The agencies adopted the cap
on credits to address issues of uncertainty regarding the level of
credits automatically assigned to each technology. Manufacturers able
to demonstrate that a technology provides improvements beyond the menu
credit level would be able to apply for additional credits through the
individual demonstration process noted above. Credits based on the
individual manufacturer demonstration would not count against the
credit cap. If a menu list of credits is developed to be included in
the HD pickup and van program, a cap may also be appropriate depending
on the technology list and credit levels. The agencies request comments
on all aspects of the off-cycle credits program for HD trucks and vans.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\376\ See 40 CFR 86.1869-12(b).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
(4) Demonstrating Compliance for Heavy-Duty Pickup Trucks and Vans
The Phase 1 rule established a comprehensive compliance program for
HD pickups and vans that NHTSA and EPA are generally retaining for
Phase 2. The compliance provisions cover details regarding the
implementation of the fleet average standards including vehicle
certification, demonstrating compliance at the end of the model year,
in-use standards and testing, carryover of certification test data, and
reporting requirements. Please see Section V.B (1) of the Phase 1 rule
preamble (76 FR 57256-57263) for a detailed discussion of these
provisions.
The Phase 1 rule contains special provisions regarding loose
engines and optional chassis certification of certain vocational
vehicles over 14,000 lbs. GVWR. The agencies are proposing to extend
the optional chassis certification provisions to Phase 2 and are not
proposing to extend the loose engine provisions. See the vocational
vehicle Section V.E. and XIV.A.2 for a detailed discussion of the
proposal for optional chassis certification and II.D. for the
discussion of loose engines.
VII. Aggregate GHG, Fuel Consumption, and Climate Impacts
Given that the purpose of setting these Phase 2 standards is to
reduce fuel consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from heavy-
duty vehicles, it is necessary for the agencies to analyze the extent
to which the proposed standards would accomplish that purpose. This
section describes the agencies' methodologies for projecting the
reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and fuel consumption, and
the methodologies the agencies used to quantify the impacts associated
with the proposed standards, as well as the impacts of Alternative 4.
In addition, EPA's analyses of the projected change in atmospheric
carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration and consequent climate
change impacts are discussed. Because of NHTSA's obligations under
EPCA/EISA and NEPA, NHTSA further analyzes, for each regulatory
alternative, the projected environmental impacts related to fuel
consumption, GHG emissions, and climate change. Detailed documentation
of this analysis is provided in Chapters 3 and 5 of NHTSA's DEIS
accompanying today's notice.
A. What methodologies did the agencies use to project GHG emissions and
fuel consumption impacts?
Different tools exist for estimating potential fuel consumption and
GHG emissions impacts associated with fuel efficiency and GHG emission
standards. One such tool is EPA's official mobile source emissions
inventory model named Motor Vehicle Emissions Simulator (MOVES).\377\
The agencies used the most current version of the model, MOVES2014, to
quantify the impacts of the proposed standards for vocational vehicles
and combination tractor-trailers on GHG emissions and fuel consumption
for each regulatory alternative. MOVES was run with user
[[Page 40391]]
input databases, described in more detail below, that reflected the
projected technological improvements resulting from the proposed rules,
such as the improvements in engine and vehicle efficiency, aerodynamic
drag, and tire rolling resistance.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\377\ MOVES homepage: https://www.epa.gov/otaq/models/moves/index.htm (last accessed Feb 23, 2015).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Another such tool is DOT's CAFE model, which estimates how
manufacturers could potentially apply technology improvements in
response to new standards, and then calculates, among other things,
resultant changes in national fuel consumption and GHG emissions. For
today's analysis of potential new standards for HD pickups and vans,
the model was reconfigured to use the work-based attribute metric of
``work factor'' established in the Phase 1 rule for heavy-duty pickups
and vans instead of the light-duty ``footprint'' attribute metric. The
CAFE model takes user-specified inputs on, among other things, vehicles
that will be produced in a given model year, technologies available to
improve fuel efficiency on those vehicles, potential regulatory
standards that would drive improvements in fuel efficiency, and
economic assumptions. The CAFE model takes every vehicle in each
manufacturer's fleet and decides what technologies to add to those
vehicles in order to allow each manufacturer to comply with the
standards in the most cost-effective way. Based on the resulting
improved vehicle fleet, the CAFE model then calculates total fuel
consumption and GHG emissions impacts based on those inputs, along with
economic costs and benefits. The DOT's CAFE model is further described
in detail in Section VI.C of the preamble and Chapter 2 of the draft
RIA.
For these rules, the agencies conducted coordinated and
complementary analyses by using two analytical methods for the heavy-
duty pickup and van segment employing both DOT's CAFE model and EPA's
MOVES model. The agencies used EPA's MOVES model to estimate fuel
consumption and emissions impacts for tractor-trailers (including the
engine that powers the tractor), and vocational vehicles (including the
engine that powers the vehicle).
For heavy-duty pickups and vans, the agencies performed
complementary analyses, which we refer to as ``Method A'' and ``Method
B''. In Method A, the CAFE model was used to project a pathway the
industry could use to comply with each regulatory alternative and the
estimated effects on fuel consumption, emissions, benefits and costs.
In Method B, the MOVES model was used to estimate fuel consumption and
emissions from these vehicles. NHTSA considered Method A as its central
analysis. EPA considered the results of both methods. The agencies
concluded that both methods led the agencies to the same conclusions
and the same selection of the proposed standards. See Chapter 5 of the
draft RIA for additional discussions of these two methods.
For both methods, the agencies analyzed the impact of the proposed
rules and Alternative 4, relative to two different reference cases--
less dynamic and more dynamic. The less dynamic baseline projects very
little improvement in new vehicles in the absence of new Phase 2
standards. In contrast, the more dynamic baseline projects more
improvements in vehicle fuel efficiency. The agencies considered both
reference cases (for additional details, see Chapter 11 of the draft
RIA). The results for all of the regulatory alternatives relative to
both reference cases, derived via the same methodologies discussed in
this section, are presented in Section X of the preamble.
For brevity, a subset of these analyses are presented in this
section, and the reader is referred to both the RIA Chapter 11 and
NHTSA's DEIS Chapters 3 and 5 for complete sets of these analyses. In
this section, Method A is presented for both the proposed standards
(i.e., Alternative 3--the agencies' preferred alternative) and for the
standards the agencies considered in Alternative 4, relative to both
the more dynamic baseline (Alternative 1b) and the less dynamic
baseline (Alternative 1a). Method B is presented also for the proposed
standards and Alternative 4, but relative only to the less dynamic
baseline. The agencies' intention for presenting both of these
complementary and coordinated analyses is to offer interested readers
the opportunity to compare the regulatory alternatives considered for
Phase 2 in both the context of our HD Phase 1 analytical approaches and
our light-duty vehicle analytical approaches. The agencies view these
analyses as corroborative and reinforcing: Both support agencies'
conclusion that the proposed standards are appropriate and at the
maximum feasible levels.
Because reducing fuel consumption also affects emissions that occur
as a result of fuel production and distribution (including renewable
fuels), the agencies also calculated those ``upstream'' changes using
the ``downstream'' fuel consumption reductions predicted by the CAFE
model and the MOVES model. As described in Section VI, Method A uses
the CAFE model to estimate vehicular fuel consumption and emissions
impacts for HD pickups and vans and to calculate upstream impacts. For
vocational vehicles and combination tractor-trailers, both Method A and
Method B use the same upstream tools originally created for the
Renewable Fuel Standard 2 (RFS2) rulemaking analysis,\378\ used in the
LD GHG rulemakings,\379\ HD GHG Phase 1,\380\ and updated for the
current analysis. The estimate of emissions associated with production
and distribution of gasoline and diesel from crude oil is based on
emission factors in the ``Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions, and
Energy Use in Transportation'' model (GREET) developed by DOE's Argonne
National Lab. In some cases, the GREET values were modified or updated
by the agencies to be consistent with the National Emission Inventory
(NEI) and emission factors from MOVES. Method B uses the same tool
described above to estimate the upstream impacts for HD pickups and
vans. For additional details, see Chapter 5 of the draft RIA. The
upstream tool used for the Method B can be found in the docket.\381\ As
noted in Section VI above, these analyses corroborate each other's
results.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\378\ U.S. EPA. Draft Regulatory Impact Analysis: Changes to
Renewable Fuel Standard Program. Chapters 2 and 3. May 26, 2009.
Docket ID: EPA-HQ-OAR-2009-0472-0119
\379\ 2017 and Later Model Year Light-Duty Vehicle Greenhouse
Gas Emissions and Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards (77 FR
62623, October 15, 2012).
\380\ Greenhouse Gas Emission Standards and Fuel Efficiency
Standards for Medium- and Heavy-Duty Engines and Vehicles (76 FR
57106, September 15, 2011).
\381\ Memorandum to the Docket ``Upstream Emissions Modeling
Files for HDGHG Phase 2 NPRM'' Docket No. EPA-HQ-OAR-2014-0827.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
The agencies analyzed the anticipated emissions impacts of the
proposed rules and Alternative 4 on carbon dioxide (CO2),
methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), and
hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) for a number of calendar years (for purposes
of the discussion in these proposed rules, only 2025, 2035 and 2050
will be shown) by comparing to both reference cases.\382\ Additional
runs were performed for just the three of the greenhouse gases
(CO2, CH4, and N2O) and for fuel
consumption for every calendar year from 2014 to 2050, inclusive, which
fed the economy-wide modeling, monetized greenhouse gas benefits
estimation, and climate impacts
[[Page 40392]]
analyses, discussed in sections below.\383\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\382\ The emissions impacts of the proposed rules on non-GHGs,
including air toxics, were also estimated using MOVES. See Section
VIII of the preamble for more information.
\383\ The CAFE model estimates, among other things,
manufacturers' potential multiyear planning decisions within the
context of an estimated year-by-year product cadence (i.e., schedule
for redesigning and freshening vehicles). The agencies included
earlier model years in the analysis in order to account for the
potential that manufacturers might take anticipatory actions in
model years preceding those covered by today's proposal.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
B. Analysis of Fuel Consumption and GHG Emissions Impacts Resulting
From Proposed Standards and Alternative 4
The following sections describe the model inputs and assumptions
for both the less dynamic and more dynamic reference cases and the
control case representing the agencies' proposed fuel efficiency and
GHG standards. The agencies request comment on the model inputs,
projected reductions in energy rates and fuel consumption rates
presented in this section, as well as in Chapter 5 of the draft RIA.
The details of all the MOVES runs, and input data tables, as well as
the MOVES code and database, can be found in the docket.\384\ See
Section VI.C for the discussion of the model inputs and assumptions for
the analysis of the HD pickups and vans using DOT's CAFE Model.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\384\ Memorandum to the Docket ``Runspecs, Model Inputs, MOVES
Code and Database for HD GHG Phase 2 NPRM Emissions Modeling''
Docket No. EPA-HQ-OAR-2014-0827
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
(1) Model Inputs and Assumptions for the Less Dynamic Reference Case
The less dynamic reference case (identified as Alternative 1a in
Section X), includes the impact of Phase 1, but generally assumes that
fuel efficiency and GHG emission standards are not improved beyond the
required 2018 model year levels. Alternative 1a functions as one of the
baselines against which the impacts of the proposed standards can be
evaluated. This case projects some improvements in the efficiency of
the box trailers pulled by combination tractors due to increased
penetration of aerodynamic technologies and low rolling resistance
tires attributed to both EPA's SmartWay Transport Partnership and
California Air Resources Board's Tractor-Trailer Greenhouse Gas
regulation, as described in Section IV of the preamble. For other HD
vehicle sectors, no market-driven improvement in fuel efficiency was
assumed. For HD pickups and vans, the CAFE model was applied in a
manner that assumes manufacturers would only add fuel-saving technology
as needed to continue complying with Phase 1 standards. MOVES2014
defaults were used for all other parameters to estimate the emissions
inventories for this case. The less dynamic reference case assumed the
MOVES2014 default vehicle population and miles traveled estimates. The
growth in vehicle populations and miles traveled in MOVES2014 is based
on the relative annual VMT growth from AEO2014 Early Release for model
years 2012 and later.\385\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\385\ MOVES2014 assumes the population and VMT growth based on
the early release version of AEO2014 because it was the only version
that was available at the time of MOVES2014 development. Annual
Energy Outlook 2014. https://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/er/ (last
accessed Feb 23, 2015).
\386\ Vocational vehicles modeled in MOVES include heavy heavy-
duty, medium heavy-duty, and light heavy-duty vehicles. However, for
light heavy-duty vocational vehicles, class 2b and 3 vehicles are
not included in the inventories for the vocational sector. Instead,
all vocational vehicles with GVWR of less than 14,000 lbs were
modeled using the energy rate reductions described below for HD
pickup trucks and vans. In practice, many manufacturers of these
vehicles choose to average the lightest vocational vehicles into
chassis-certified families (i.e., heavy-duty pickups and vans).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
(2) Model Inputs and Assumptions for the More Dynamic Reference Case
The more dynamic reference case (identified as Alternative 1b in
Section X), also includes the impact of Phase 1 and generally assumes
that fuel efficiency and GHG emission standards are not improved beyond
the required 2018 model year levels. However, for this case, the
agencies assume market forces would lead to additional fuel efficiency
improvements for HD pickups and vans and tractor-trailers. These
additional assumed improvements are described in Section X of the
preamble. No additional fuel efficiency improvements due to market
forces were assumed for vocational vehicles. For HD pickups and vans,
the agencies applied the CAFE model using the input assumption that
manufacturers having achieved compliance with Phase 1 standards would
continue to apply technologies for which increased purchase costs would
be ``paid back'' through corresponding fuel savings within the first
six months of vehicle operation. The agencies conducted the MOVES
analysis of this case in the same manner as for the less dynamic
reference case.
(3) Model Inputs and Assumptions for ``Control'' Case
(a) Vocational Vehicles and Tractor-Trailers
The ``control'' case represents the agencies' proposed fuel
efficiency and GHG standards. The agencies developed additional user
input data for MOVES runs to estimate the control case inventories. The
inputs to MOVES for the control case account for improvements of engine
and vehicle efficiency in vocational vehicles and combination tractor-
trailers. The agencies used the percent reduction in aerodynamic drag
and tire rolling resistance coefficients and absolute changes in
average total running weight (gross combined weight) expected from the
proposed rules to develop the road load inputs for the control case,
based on the GEM analysis. The agencies also used the percent reduction
in CO2 emissions expected from the powertrain and other
vehicle technologies not accounted for in the aerodynamic drag and tire
rolling resistance in the proposed rules to develop energy inputs for
the control case runs.
Table VII-1 and Table VII-2 describe the proposed improvements in
engine and vehicle efficiency from the proposed rules for vocational
vehicles and combination tractor-trailers that were input into MOVES
for estimating the control case emissions inventories. Additional
details regarding the MOVES inputs are included in the Chapter 5 of the
draft RIA.
Table VII-1--Estimated Reductions in Energy Rates for the Proposed Standards
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Reduction from
Vehicle type Fuel Model years reference case
(percent)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Long-haul Tractor-Trailers and HHD Vocational. Diesel.......................... 2018-2020 1.3
2021-2023 5.2
2024-2026 9.7
2027+ 10.4
Short-haul Tractor-Trailers and HHD Vocational Diesel.......................... 2018-2020 0.9
[[Page 40393]]
2021-2023 5.0
2024-2026 9.5
2027+ 10.4
Single-Frame Vocational \386\................. Diesel and CNG.................. 2021-2023 5.3
2024-2026 8.9
2027+ 13.3
Gasoline........................ 2021-2023 3.3
2024-2026 5.4
2027+ 10.3
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table VII-2--Estimated Reductions in Road Load Factors for the Proposed Standards
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Reduction in Reduction in
tire rolling aerodynamic Weight
Vehicle type Model years resistance drag reduction (LB)
coefficient coefficient \a\
(percent) (percent)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Combination Long-haul Tractor-Trailers....... 2018-2020 5.5 5.1 -131
2021-2023 9.8 15.3 -199
2024-2026 15.7 20.5 -246
2027+ 17.9 26.9 -304
Combination Short-haul Tractor-Trailers \387\ 2018-2020 4.0 1.6 -41
2021-2023 10.5 9.3 -79
2024-2026 13.9 12.3 -100
2027+ 17.6 15.9 -127
Intercity Buses.............................. 2021-2023 6.5 0 0
2024-2026 9.2 0 0
2027+ 16.5 0 0
Transit Buses................................ 2021-2023 0 0 0
2024-2026 2.9 0 0
2027+ 3.0 0 0
School Buses................................. 2021-2023 0 0 0
2024-2026 2.9 0 0
2027+ 4.0 0 0
Refuse Trucks................................ 2021-2023 0 0 20
2024-2026 2.9 0 20
2027+ 3.0 0 25
Single Unit Short-haul Trucks................ 2021-2023 4.8 0 5.8
2024-2026 8.3 0 5.8
2027+ 13.0 0 7
Single Unit Long-haul Trucks................. 2021-2023 6.5 0 20
2024-2026 9.2 0 20
2027+ 16.5 0 25
Motor Homes.................................. 2021-2023 3.0 0 0
2024-2026 6.2 0 0
2027+ 7.4 0 0
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note:
\a\ Negative weight reductions reflect an expected weight increase as a byproduct of other vehicle and engine
improvements, as described in Chapter 5 of the draft RIA.
In addition, the proposed CO2 standard for tractors
reflecting the use of auxiliary power units (APU) during extended
idling, as discussed in Section III.D of the preamble, was included in
the modeling for the long-haul combination tractor-trailers, as shown
below in Table VII-3.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\387\ Vocational tractors are included in the short-haul tractor
segment.
Table VII-3--Assumed APU Use During Extended Idling for Combination Long-
Haul Tractor-Trailers
------------------------------------------------------------------------
APU
Vehicle type Model year penetration
\a\ (percent)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Combination Long-Haul Trucks............ 2010-2020 30
2021-2023 80
[[Page 40394]]
2024+ 90
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note:
\a\ The assumed APU penetration remains constant for model years 2024
and later.
To account for the potential increase in vehicle use expected to
result from improvements in fuel efficiency for vocational vehicles and
combination tractor-trailers due to the proposed rules (also known as
the ``rebound effect'' and described in more detail in Chapter 5 of the
draft RIA), the control case assumed an increase in VMT from the
reference levels by 1.83 percent for the vocational vehicles and 0.79
percent for the combination tractor-trailers.
(b) Heavy-Duty Pickups and Vans
As explained above and as also discussed in the draft RIA, the
agencies used both DOT's CAFE model and EPA's MOVES model, for Method A
and B, respectively, to project fuel consumption and GHG emissions
impacts resulting from the proposed standards for HD pickups and vans,
including downstream vehicular emissions as well as emissions from
upstream processes related to fuel production, distribution, and
delivery.
(i) Method A for HD Pickups and Vans
For Method A, the agencies used the CAFE model which applies fuel
properties (density and carbon content) to estimated fuel consumption
in order to calculate vehicular CO2 emissions, applies per-
mile emission factors from MOVES to estimated VMT (for each regulatory
alternative, adjusted to account for the rebound effect) in order to
calculate vehicular CH4 and N2O emissions (as
well, as discussed below, of non-GHG pollutants), and applies per-
gallon upstream emission factors from GREET in order to calculate
upstream GHG (and non-GHG) emissions.
As discussed above in Section VI, the proposed standards for HD
pickups and vans--that is, the functions defining fuel consumption and
GHG targets that each depend work factor--increase in stringency by 2.5
percent annually during model years 2021-2027. The standards define
targets specific to each vehicle model, but no vehicle is required to
meet its target; instead, the production-weighted averages of the
vehicle-specific targets define average fuel consumption and
CO2 emission rates that a given manufacturer's overall fleet
of produced vehicles is required to achieve. The standards are
specified separately for gasoline and diesel vehicles, and vary with
work factor. Work factors could change, and today's analysis assumes
that some applications of mass reduction could enable increased work
factor in cases where manufacturers could increase a vehicle's rated
payload and/or towing capacity. Therefore, average required levels will
depend on the mix of vehicles and work factors of the vehicles produced
for sale in the U.S., and since these can only be estimated at this
time, average required and achieved fuel consumption and CO2
emission rates are subject to uncertainty. Between today's notice and
issuance of the ensuing final rule, the agencies intend to update the
market forecast (and other inputs) used to analyze HD pickup and van
standards, and expect that doing so will lead to different estimates of
required and achieved fuel consumption and CO2 emission
rates (as well as different estimates of impacts, costs, and benefits).
The following four tables present stringency increases and
estimated required and achieved fuel consumption and CO2
emission rates for the two No Action Alternatives (Alternative 1a and
1b) and the proposed standards defining the Preferred Alternative.
Stringency increases are shown relative to standards applicable in
model year 2018 (and through model year 2020). As mathematical
functions, the standards themselves are not subject to uncertainty. By
2027, they are 16.2 percent more stringent (i.e., lower) than those
applicable during 2018-2020. NHTSA estimates that, by model 2027, the
proposed standards could reduce average required fuel consumption and
CO2 emission rates to about 4.86 gallons/100 miles and about
458 grams/mile, respectively. NHTSA further estimates that average
achieved fuel consumption and CO2 emission rates could
correspondingly be reduced to about the same levels. If, as represented
by Alternative 1b, manufacturers would, even absent today's proposed
standards, voluntarily make improvements that pay back within six
months, these model year 2027 levels are about 13.5 percent lower than
the agencies estimate could be achieved under the Phase 1 standards
defining the No Action Alternative. If, as represented by Alternative
1a, manufacturers would, absent today's proposed standards, only apply
technology as required to achieve compliance, these model year 2027
levels are about 15 percent lower than the agencies estimate could be
achieved under the Phase 1 standards. As indicated below, the agencies
estimate that these improvements in fuel consumption and CO2
emission rates would build from model year to model year, beginning as
soon as model year 2017 (insofar as manufacturers may make anticipatory
improvements if warranted given planned produce cadence).
[[Page 40395]]
Table VII-4--Stringency of HD Pickup and Van Standards, Estimated Average Required and Achieved Fuel Consumption Rates for Method A, Relative to
Alternative 1b \a\
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ave. required fuel cons. (gal./100 mi.) Ave. achieved fuel cons. (gal./100 mi.)
Model year Stringency (vs. -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2018) (%) No action Proposed Reduction (%) No action Proposed Reduction (%)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2014.............................. MYs 2014-2020 6.41 6.41 0.0 6.21 6.21 0.0
2015.............................. Subject to Phase 1 6.41 6.41 0.0 6.12 6.12 0.0
2016.............................. Standards. 6.27 6.27 0.0 6.15 6.15 0.0
2017.............................. 6.11 6.11 0.0 5.89 5.88 0.2
2018.............................. 5.80 5.80 0.0 5.75 5.70 0.8
2019.............................. 5.78 5.78 0.0 5.72 5.68 0.7
2020.............................. 5.78 5.78 0.0 5.69 5.64 0.8
2021.............................. 2.5................. 5.77 5.64 2.2 5.63 5.42 3.8
2022.............................. 4.9................. 5.77 5.50 4.7 5.63 5.42 3.8
2023.............................. 7.3................. 5.77 5.38 6.8 5.63 5.28 6.3
2024.............................. 9.6................. 5.77 5.25 9.0 5.63 5.23 7.1
2025.............................. 11.9................ 5.77 5.12 11.4 5.63 4.99 11.5
2026.............................. 14.1................ 5.77 4.98 13.7 5.63 4.93 12.5
2027.............................. 16.2................ 5.77 4.86 15.8 5.62 4.86 13.7
2028*............................. 16.2................ 5.77 4.86 15.8 5.62 4.86 13.7
2029*............................. 16.2................ 5.77 4.86 15.8 5.62 4.85 13.7
2030*............................. 16.2................ 5.77 4.86 15.8 5.62 4.85 13.7
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Notes:
\a\ For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic
baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
*Absent further action, standards assumed to continue unchanged after model year 2027.
Table VII-5--Stringency of HD Pickup and Van Standards, Estimated Average Required and Achieved CO2 Emission Rates for Method A, Relative to Alternative
1b \a\
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ave. required CO2 Rate (g./ Ave. achieved CO2 Rate (g./mi.)
Stringency (vs. mi.) ---------------------------------------------------------------
Model year 2018) (%) --------------------------------
No action Proposed Reduction No Action Proposed Reduction (%)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2014.............................. MYs 2014-2020 602 602 0.0 581 581 0.0
2015.............................. Subject to Phase 1 608 608 0.0 578 578 0.0
2016.............................. Standards. 593 593 0.0 580 580 0.0
2017.............................. 578 578 0.0 556 554 0.2
2018.............................. 548 548 0.0 543 538 0.8
2019.............................. 545 545 0.0 539 535 0.7
2020.............................. 545 545 0.0 536 532 0.8
2021.............................. 2.5................. 544 532 2.2 530 510 3.8
2022.............................. 4.9................. 544 519 4.7 530 510 3.8
2023.............................. 7.3................. 544 507 6.8 530 496 6.4
2024.............................. 9.6................. 544 495 9.1 530 492 7.2
2025.............................. 11.9................ 544 482 11.3 530 470 11.3
2026.............................. 14.1................ 544 470 13.6 530 465 12.3
2027.............................. 16.2................ 544 458 15.8 529 458 13.4
2028*............................. 16.2................ 544 458 15.8 529 458 13.4
2029*............................. 16.2................ 544 458 15.8 529 458 13.5
2030*............................. 16.2................ 544 458 15.8 529 458 13.5
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Notes:
\a\ For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic
baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
*Absent further action, standards assumed to continue unchanged after model year 2027.
Table VII-6--Stringency of HD Pickup and Van Standards, Estimated Average Required and Achieved Fuel Consumption Rates for Method A, Relative to
Alternative 1a \a\
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ave. required fuel cons. (gal./100 mi.) Ave. achieved fuel cons. (gal./100 mi.)
Model year Stringency (vs. -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2018)(%) No action Proposed Reduction (%) No Action Proposed Reduction (%)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2014.............................. MYs 2014-2020 6.41 6.41 0.0 6.21 6.21 0.0
2015.............................. Subject to Phase 1 6.41 6.41 0.0 6.12 6.12 0.0
2016.............................. Standards. 6.27 6.27 0.0 6.15 6.15 0.0
2017.............................. 6.11 6.11 0.0 5.89 5.87 0.3
2018.............................. 5.80 5.80 **[caret]0.0 5.75 5.70 0.9
2019.............................. 5.78 5.78 0.0 5.73 5.68 0.8
2020.............................. 5.78 5.78 0.0 5.73 5.68 0.8
2021.............................. 2.5................. 5.77 5.64 2.3 5.72 5.44 4.8
2022.............................. 4.9................. 5.77 5.50 4.7 5.72 5.44 4.8
2023.............................. 7.3................. 5.77 5.38 6.8 5.72 5.29 7.6
[[Page 40396]]
2024.............................. 9.6................. 5.77 5.25 9.1 5.72 5.23 8.5
2025.............................. 11.9................ 5.77 5.12 11.4 5.72 4.98 12.9
2026.............................. 14.1................ 5.77 4.98 13.7 5.72 4.94 13.6
2027.............................. 16.2................ 5.77 4.86 15.8 5.72 4.87 14.9
2028*............................. 16.2................ 5.77 4.86 15.8 5.72 4.87 14.9
2029*............................. 16.2................ 5.77 4.86 15.8 5.72 4.86 15.0
2030*............................. 16.2................ 5.77 4.86 15.8 5.72 4.86 15.0
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Notes:
\a\ For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic
baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
*Absent further action, standards assumed to continue unchanged after model year 2027.
**Increased work factor for some vehicles produces a slight increase in average required fuel consumption.
Table VII-7--Stringency of HD Pickup and Van Standards, Estimated Average Required and Achieved CO2 Emission Rates for Method A, Relative to Alternative
1a \a\
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ave. required CO2 Rate (g./mi.) Ave. achieved CO2 Rate (g./mi.)
Model year Stringency (vs. -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2018) (%) No action Proposed Reduction (%) No action Proposed Reduction (%)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2014.............................. MYs 2014-2020 6.02 602 0.0 581 581 0.0
2015.............................. Subject to Phase 1 6.08 608 0.0 578 578 0.0
2016.............................. Standards. 593 593 0.0 580 580 0.0
2017.............................. 578 578 0.0 556 554 0.3
2018.............................. 548 548 **-0.0 543 538 0.9
2019.............................. 545 546 **-0.1 539 535 0.8
2020.............................. 545 545 **-0.1 539 535 0.8
2021.............................. 2.5................. 544 532 2.2 538 512 4.9
2022.............................. 4.9................. 544 519 4.7 538 512 4.9
2023.............................. 7.3................. 544 507 6.8 538 497 7.7
2024.............................. 9.6................. 544 495 9.1 538 492 8.6
2025.............................. 11.9................ 544 482 11.4 538 470 12.7
2026.............................. 14.1................ 544 470 13.6 538 466 13.4
2027.............................. 16.2................ 544 458 15.8 538 459 14.7
2028*............................. 16.2................ 544 458 15.8 538 459 14.7
2029*............................. 16.2................ 544 458 15.8 538 459 14.8
2030*............................. 16.2................ 544 458 15.8 538 459 14.8
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Notes:
\a\ For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic
baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
*Absent further action, standards assumed to continue unchanged after model year 2027.
**Increased work factor for some vehicles produces a slight increase in the average required CO2 emission rate.
While the above tables show the agencies' estimates of average fuel
consumption and CO2 emission rates manufacturers might
achieve under today's proposed standards, total U.S. fuel consumption
and GHG emissions from HD pickups and vans will also depend on how many
of these vehicles are produced, and how they are operated over their
useful lives. Relevant to estimating these outcomes, the CAFE model
applies vintage-specific estimates of vehicle survival and mileage
accumulation, and adjusts the latter to account for the rebound effect.
This impact of the rebound effect is specific to each model year (and,
underlying, to each vehicle model in each model year), varying with
changes in achieved fuel consumption rates.
(ii) Method B for HD Pickups and Vans
For Method B, the MOVES model was used to estimate fuel consumption
and GHG emissions for HD pickups and vans. MOVES evaluated the proposed
standards for HD pickup trucks and vans in terms of grams of
CO2 per mile or gallons of fuel per 100 miles. Since nearly
all HD pickup trucks and vans are certified on a chassis dynamometer,
the CO2 reductions for these vehicles were not represented
as engine and road load reduction components, but rather as total
vehicle CO2 reductions. The control case for HD pickups and
vans assumed an increase in VMT from the reference levels by 1.18
percent for HD pickups and vans.
[[Page 40397]]
Table VII-8--Estimated Total Vehicle CO2 Reductions for the Proposed
Standards and In-Use Emissions for HD Pickup Trucks and Vans in Method B
\a\
------------------------------------------------------------------------
CO2
reduction
Vehicle type Fuel Model year from
reference
case (%)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
HD pickup trucks and vans.... Gasoline and 2021 2.50
Diesel.
2022 4.94
2023 7.31
2024 9.63
2025 11.89
2026 14.09
2027+ 16.24
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Notes:
\a\ For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section
I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more
dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
C. What are the projected reductions in fuel consumption and GHG
emissions?
NHTSA and EPA expect significant reductions in GHG emissions and
fuel consumption from the proposed rules--fuel consumption reductions
from more efficient vehicles, emission reductions from both downstream
(tailpipe) and upstream (fuel production and distribution) sources, and
HFC emissions from the proposed air conditioning leakage standards. The
following subsections summarize two slightly different analyses of the
annual GHG emissions and fuel consumption reductions expected from
these proposed rules, as well as the reductions in GHG emissions and
fuel consumption expected over the lifetime of each heavy-duty vehicle
categories. In addition, because the agencies are carefully considering
Alternative 4 along with Alternative 3, the preferred alternative, the
results from both are presented here for the reader's reference.
Section VII. C. (1) shows the impacts of the proposed rules and
Alternative 4 on fuel consumption and GHG emissions using the MOVES
model for tractor-trailers and vocational vehicles, and the DOT's CAFE
model for HD pickups and vans (Method A), relative to two different
reference cases--less dynamic and more dynamic. Section VII. C. (2)
shows the impacts of the proposed standards and Alternative 4, relative
to the less dynamic reference case only, using the MOVES model for all
heavy-duty vehicle categories. NHTSA also analyzes these impacts
resulting from the proposed rules and reasonable alternatives in
Chapters 3 and 5 of its DEIS.
(1) Impacts of the Proposed Rules and Alternative 4 Using Analysis
Method A
(a) Calendar Year Analysis
(i) Downstream (Tailpipe) Emissions Projections
As described in Section VII. A, for the analysis using Method A,
the agencies used MOVES to estimate downstream GHG inventories from the
proposed rules for vocational vehicles and tractor-trailers. For HD
pickups and vans, DOT's CAFE model was used.
The following two tables summarize the agencies' estimates of HD
pickup and van fuel consumption and GHG emissions under the current and
proposed standards defining the No-Action and Preferred alternatives,
respectively, using Method A. Table VII-9 shows results assuming
manufacturers would voluntarily make improvements that pay back within
six months (i.e., Alternative 1b). Table VII-10 shows results assuming
manufacturers would only make improvements as needed to achieve
compliance with standards (i.e., Alternative 1a). While underlying
calculations are all performed for each calendar year during each
vehicle's useful life, presentation of outcomes on a model year basis
aligns more clearly with consideration of cost impacts in each model
year, and with consideration of standards specified on a model year
basis. In addition, Method A analyzes manufacturers' potential
responses to HD pickup and van standards on a model year basis through
2030, and any longer-term costs presented in today's notice represent
extrapolation of these results absent any underlying analysis of
longer-term technology prospects and manufacturers' longer-term product
offerings.
Table VII-9--Estimated Fuel Consumption and GHG Emissions Over Useful Life of HD Pickups and Vans Produced in
Each Model Year for Method A, Relative to Alternative 1b \a\
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Fuel consumption (b. gal.) over GHG emissions (MMT CO2eq) over
fleet's useful life fleet's useful life
Model year -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Reduction Reduction
No action Proposed (%) No action Proposed (%)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2014.............................. 9.41 9.41 0.0 115 115 0.0
2015.............................. 9.53 9.53 0.0 117 117 0.0
2016.............................. 9.72 9.72 0.0 119 119 0.0
2017.............................. 9.49 9.47 0.2 116 116 0.2
2018.............................. 9.26 9.19 0.7 113 113 0.7
2019.............................. 9.20 9.14 0.7 113 112 0.7
2020.............................. 9.19 9.12 0.7 112 112 0.7
2021.............................. 9.10 8.79 3.4 111 107 3.4
2022.............................. 9.13 8.82 3.4 112 108 3.4
2023.............................. 9.11 8.59 5.7 111 105 5.7
2024.............................. 9.32 8.72 6.4 114 107 6.4
[[Page 40398]]
2025.............................. 9.49 8.49 10.5 116 104 10.4
2026.............................. 9.67 8.56 11.5 118 105 11.3
2027.............................. 9.78 8.55 12.6 120 105 12.3
2028.............................. 9.90 8.66 12.6 121 106 12.3
2029.............................. 10.02 8.75 12.6 122 107 12.4
2030.............................. 10.03 8.76 12.6 123 107 12.4
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note:
\a\ For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less
dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
Table VII-10--Estimated Fuel Consumption and GHG Emissions over Useful Life of HD Pickups and Vans Produced in
Each Model Year for Method A, Relative to Alternative 1a \a\
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Fuel consumption (b. gal.) over GHG Emissions (MMT CO2eq) over
fleet's useful life fleet's useful life
Model year -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Reduction Reduction
No action Proposed (%) No action Proposed (%)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2014.............................. 9.41 9.41 0.0 115 115 0.0
2015.............................. 9.53 9.53 0.0 117 117 0.0
2016.............................. 9.72 9.72 0.0 119 119 0.0
2017.............................. 9.49 9.46 0.3 116 116 0.3
2018.............................. 9.27 9.19 0.8 114 113 0.8
2019.............................. 9.20 9.14 0.7 113 112 0.7
2020.............................. 9.25 9.18 0.7 113 112 0.8
2021.............................. 9.23 8.82 4.4 113 108 4.4
2022.............................. 9.26 8.85 4.4 113 108 4.4
2023.............................. 9.23 8.60 6.9 113 105 6.9
2024.............................. 9.45 8.72 7.7 116 107 7.7
2025.............................. 9.62 8.48 11.8 118 104 11.7
2026.............................. 9.81 8.58 12.5 120 105 12.3
2027.............................. 9.93 8.57 13.7 121 105 13.5
2028.............................. 10.05 8.68 13.7 123 106 13.5
2029.............................. 10.17 8.77 13.7 124 108 13.5
2030.............................. 10.18 8.78 13.7 124 108 13.5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note:
\a\ For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less
dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
To more clearly communicate these trends visually, the following
two charts present the above results graphically for Method A, relative
to Alternative 1b. As shown, fuel consumption and GHG emissions follow
parallel though not precisely identical paths. Though not presented,
the charts for Alternative 1a would appear sufficiently similar that
differences between Alternative 1a and Alternative 1b remain best
communicated by comparing values in the above tables.
[[Page 40399]]
[GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] TP13JY15.015
[[Page 40400]]
[GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] TP13JY15.016
Table VII-11 Annual Downstream GHG Emissions Impacts in Calendar Years 2025, 2035 and 2050--Preferred
Alternative vs. Alt 1b Using Analysis Method A \a\
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total
CY CO2 (MMT) CH4 (MMT N2O (MMT downstream
CO2eq) CO2eq)\9\ (MMT CO2eq)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2025........................................................ -26.9 -0.4 0 -27.2
2035........................................................ -86.0 -1.0 0 -86.9
2050........................................................ -121.6 -1.4 0 -123.0
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note:
\a\ For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less
dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
Table VII-12--Annual Fuel Savings in Calendar Years 2025, 2035 and 2050--
Preferred Alternative vs. Alt 1b Using Analysis Method A \a\
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gasoline
Diesel savings savings
CY (billion (billion
gallons) gallons)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
2025.................................... 2.5 0.2
2035.................................... 7.6 0.9
2050.................................... 10.8 1.2
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note:
\a\ For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section
I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more
dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
[[Page 40401]]
Table VII-13--Annual Downstream GHG Emissions Impacts in Calendar Years 2025, 2035 and 2050--Preferred
Alternative vs. Alt 1a Using Analysis Method A \a\
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total
CY CO2 (MMT) CH4 (MMT N2O (MMT downstream
CO2eq) CO2eq)\9\ (MMT CO2eq)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2025............................................ -27.7 -0.4 0 -28.1
2035............................................ -93.6 -1.0 0 -94.6
2050............................................ -133.5 -1.4 0 -134.9
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note:
\a\ For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less
dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
Table VII-14--Annual Fuel Savings in Calendar Years 2025, 2035 and 2050--
Preferred Alternative vs. Alt 1a Using Analysis Method A \a\
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Diesel Gasoline
savings savings
CY (billion (billion
gallons) gallons)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
2025.......................................... 2.5 0.2
2035.......................................... 8.3 1.0
2050.......................................... 11.9 1.3
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note:
\a\ For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section
I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more
dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
Table VII-15--Annual Downstream GHG Emissions Impacts in Calendar Years 2025, 2035 and 2050--Alternative 4 vs.
Alt 1b Using Analysis Method A \a\
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total
CY CO2 (MMT) CH4 (MMT N2O (MMT downstream
CO2eq) CO2eq)\9\ (MMT CO2eq)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2025............................................ -33.2 -0.4 0 -33.5
2035............................................ -89.9 -1.0 0 -90.9
2050............................................ -122.6 -1.4 0 -124.0
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note:
\a\ For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less
dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
Table VII-16--Annual Fuel Savings in Calendar Years 2025, 2035 and 2050--
Alternative 4 vs. Alt 1b Using Analysis Method A \a\
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Diesel Gasoline
savings savings
CY (billion (billion
gallons) gallons)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
2025.......................................... 3.0 0.3
2035.......................................... 7.9 1.0
2050.......................................... 10.8 1.3
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note:
\a\ For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section
I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more
dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
Table VII-17--Annual Downstream GHG Emissions Impacts in Calendar Years 2025, 2035 and 2050--Alternative 4 vs.
Alt 1a Using Analysis Method A \a\
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total
CY CO2 (MMT) CH4 (MMT N2O (MMT downstream
CO2eq) CO2eq) \9\ (MMT CO2eq)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2025............................................ -34.3 -0.4 0 -34.6
2035............................................ -97.7 -1.0 0 -98.7
2050............................................ -134.6 -1.4 0 -136.0
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note:
\a\ For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less
dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
[[Page 40402]]
Table VII-18--Annual Fuel Savings in Calendar Years 2025, 2035 and 2050--
Alternative 4 vs. Alt 1a Using Analysis Method A \a\
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Diesel Gasoline
savings savings
CY (billion (billion
gallons) gallons)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
2025.......................................... 3.1 0.3
2035.......................................... 8.6 1.1
2050.......................................... 12.0 1.3
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note:
\a\ For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section
I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more
dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
(ii) Upstream (Fuel Production and Distribution) Emissions Projections
Table VII-19--Annual Upstream GHG Emissions Impacts in Calendar Years 2025, 2035 and 2050--Preferred Alternative
vs. Alt 1b Using Analysis Method A \a\
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CH4 (MMT N2O (MMT Total upstream
CY CO2 (MMT) CO2eq) CO2eq) (MMT CO2eq)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2025............................................ -8.4 -0.9 -0.1 -9.3
2035............................................ -26.6 -2.8 -0.2 -29.7
2050............................................ -37.7 -4.0 -0.3 -42.0
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note:
\a\ For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less
dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
Table VII-20--Annual Upstream GHG Emissions Impacts in Calendar Years 2025, 2035 and 2050--Preferred Alternative
vs. Alt 1a Using Analysis Method A \a\
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CH4 (MMT N2O (MMT Total upstream
CY CO2 (MMT) CO2eq) CO2eq) (MMT CO2eq)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2025............................................ -8.6 -0.9 -0.1 -9.6
2035............................................ -29.0 -3.1 -0.2 -32.3
2050............................................ -41.4 -4.4 -0.3 -46.1
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note:
\a\ For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less
dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
Table VII-21--Annual Upstream GHG Emissions Impacts in Calendar Years 2025, 2035 and 2050--Alternative 4 vs. Alt
1b Using Analysis Method A \a\
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CH4 (MMT N2O (MMT Total upstream
CY CO2 (MMT) CO2eq) CO2eq) (MMT CO2eq)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2025............................................ -10.3 -1.1 -0.1 -11.5
2035............................................ -27.8 -3.0 -0.2 -31.0
2050............................................ -38.0 -4.0 -0.3 -42.3
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note:
\a\ For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less
dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
Table VII-22--Annual Upstream GHG Emissions Impacts in Calendar Years 2025, 2035 and 2050--Alternative 4 vs. Alt
1a Using Analysis Method A \a\
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CH4 (MMT N2O (MMT Total upstream
CY CO2 (MMT) CO2eq) CO2eq) (MMT CO2eq)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2025............................................ -10.6 -1.1 -0.1 -11.8
2035............................................ -30.2 -3.2 -0.2 -33.7
2050............................................ -41.7 -4.4 -0.3 -46.5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note:
\a\ For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less
dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
(iii) HFC Emissions Projections
The projected HFC emission reductions due to the proposed AC
leakage standards are 93,272 metric tons of CO2eq in 2025,
253,118 metric tons of CO2eq in 2035, and 299,590 metric
tons CO2eq in 2050.
(iv) Total (Downstream + Upstream + HFC) Emissions Projections
[[Page 40403]]
Table VII-23--Annual Total GHG Emissions Impacts in Calendar Years 2025,
2035 and 2050--Preferred Alternative vs. Alt 1b Using Analysis Method A
\a\
------------------------------------------------------------------------
2025 (MMT 2035 (MMT 2050 (MMT
CY CO2eq) CO2eq) CO2eq)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Downstream................... -27.2.......... -86.9 -123.0
Upstream..................... -9.3........... -29.7 -42.0
HFC.......................... -0.09.......... -0.25 -0.3
Total.................... -36.4.......... -116.4 -164.7
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note:
\a\ For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section
I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more
dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
Table VII-24--Annual Total GHG Emissions Impacts in Calendar Years 2025,
2035 and 2050 2050--Preferred Alternative vs. Alt 1a Using Analysis
Method A \a\
------------------------------------------------------------------------
2025 (MMT 2035 (MMT 2050 (MMT
CY CO2eq) CO2eq) CO2eq)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Downstream................... -28.1.......... -94.6 -134.9
Upstream..................... -9.6........... -32.3 -46.1
HFC.......................... -0.09.......... -0.25 -0.3
Total.................... -37.6.......... -126.4 -180.7
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note:
\a\ For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section
I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more
dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
Table VII-25--Annual Total GHG Emissions Impacts in Calendar Years 2025,
2035 and 2050--Alternative 4 vs. Alt 1b Using Analysis Method A \a\
------------------------------------------------------------------------
2025 (MMT 2035 (MMT 2050 (MMT
CY CO2eq) CO2eq) CO2eq)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Downstream................... -33.5.......... -90.9 -124.0
Upstream..................... -11.5.......... -31.0 -42.3
HFC.......................... -0.09.......... -0.25 -0.3
Total.................... -44.9.......... -121.7 -166.0
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note:
\a\ For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section
I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more
dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
Table VII-26--Annual Total GHG Emissions Impacts in Calendar Years 2025,
2035 and 2050 2050--Alternative 4 vs. Alt 1a Using Analysis Method A \a\
------------------------------------------------------------------------
2025 (MMT 2035 (MMT 2050 (MMT
CY CO2eq) CO2eq) CO2eq)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Downstream................... -34.6.......... -98.7 -136.0
Upstream..................... -11.8.......... -33.7 -46.5
HFC.......................... -0.09.......... -0.25 -0.3
Total.................... -46.3.......... -132.2 -182.2
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note:
\a\ For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section
I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more
dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
(b) Model Year Lifetime Analysis
Table VII-27--Lifetime GHG Reductions and Fuel Savings Using Analysis Method A--Summary for Model Years 2018-
2029 \a\
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Alternative 3 (proposed) Alternative 4
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1b (More 1a (Less 1b (More 1a (Less
No-Action Alternative (Baseline) Dynamic) Dynamic) Dynamic) Dynamic)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Fuel Savings (Billion Gallons).............................. 72.2 76.7 81.9 86.7
Total GHG Reductions (MMT CO2eq)........................ 974 1,034 1,102 1,166
Downstream (MMT CO2eq).............................. 726.1 771.3 821.9 870.3
Upstream (MMT CO2eq)................................ 247.7 262.9 279.9 296.1
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note:
[[Page 40404]]
\a\ For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less
dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
(2) Impacts of the Proposed Rules and Alternative 4 using Analysis
Method B
(a) Calendar Year Analysis
(i) Downstream (Tailpipe) Emissions Projections
As described in Section VII. A., the Method B used MOVES to
estimate downstream GHG inventories from the proposed rules and
Alternative 4 relative to Alternative 1a for all heavy-duty vehicle
categories (including the engines associated with tractor-trailer
combinations and vocational vehicles). The agencies expect reductions
in CO2 emissions from all heavy-duty vehicle categories due
to engine and vehicle improvements. We expect N2O emissions
to increase very slightly because of a rebound in vehicle miles
traveled (VMT). However, since N2O is produced as a
byproduct of fuel combustion, the increase in N2O emissions
is expected to be more than offset by the improvements in fuel
efficiency from the proposed rules.\388\ We expect methane emissions to
decrease primarily due to reduced refueling from improved fuel
efficiency and the differences in hydrocarbon emission characteristics
between on-road diesel engines and APUs. The amount of methane emitted
as a fraction of total hydrocarbons is expected to be significantly
less for APUs than for on-road diesel engines during extended idling.
Overall, the downstream GHG emissions would be reduced significantly
and are described in the following subsections.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\388\ MOVES is not capable of modeling the changes in exhaust
N2O emissions from the improvements in fuel efficiency.
Due to this limitation, a conservative approach was taken to only
model the VMT rebound in estimating the emissions impact on
N2O from the proposed rules, resulting in a slight
increase in downstream N2O inventory.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Since fuel consumption is not directly modeled in MOVES, the total
energy consumption was run as a surrogate in MOVES. Then, the total
energy consumption was converted to fuel consumption based on the fuel
heating values assumed in the Renewable Fuels Standard rulemaking \389\
and used in the development of MOVES emission and energy rates.\390\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\389\ Renewable Fuels Standards assumptions of 115,000 BTU/
gallon gasoline (E0) and 76,330 BTU/gallon ethanol (E100) were
weighted 90% and 10%, respectively, for E10 and 85% and 15%,
respectively, for E15 and converted to kJ at 1.055 kJ/BTU. The
conversion factors are 117,245 kJ/gallon for gasoline blended with
ten percent ethanol (E10) and 115,205 kJ/gallon for gasoline blended
with fifteen percent ethanol (E15).
\390\ The conversion factor for diesel is 138,451 kJ/gallon. See
MOVES2004 Energy and Emission Inputs. EPA420-P-05-003, March 2005.
https://www.epa.gov/otaq/models/ngm/420p05003.pdf (last accessed Feb
23, 2015).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table VII-28 and Table VII-29 show the impacts on downstream GHG
emissions and fuel savings in 2025, 2035 and 2050, relative to
Alternative 1a, for the preferred alternative and Alternative 4,
respectively.
Table VII-30 and Table VII-31 show the estimated fuel savings from
the preferred alternative and Alternative 4 in 2025, 2035, and 2050,
relative to Alternative 1a. For both GHG emissions and fuel savings,
the annual impacts are greater for Alternative 4 than the preferred
alternative in earlier years, but the differences become
indistinguishable by 2050. The results from the comparable analyses
relative to Alternative 1b are presented in Section VII. C. (1).
Table VII-28--Annual Downstream GHG Emissions Impacts in Calendar Years 2025, 2035 and 2050--Preferred
Alternative vs. Alt 1a Using Analysis Method B \a\
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total
CY CO2 (MMT) CH4 (MMT N2O (MMT downstream
CO2eq) CO2eq) (MMT CO2eq)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2025........................................................ -27.0 -0.4 0.002 -27.4
2035........................................................ -93.7 -1.0 0.004 -94.7
2050........................................................ -135.1 -1.4 0.005 -136.5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note:
\a\ For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less
dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
Table VII-29--Annual Downstream GHG Emissions Impacts in Calendar Years 2025, 2035 and 2050--Alternative 4 vs.
Alt 1a using Analysis Method B \a\
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total
CY CO2 (MMT) CH4 (MMT N2O (MMT downstream
CO2eq) CO2eq) (MMT CO2eq)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2025........................................................ -33.3 -0.4 0.002 -33.7
2035........................................................ -97.3 -1.0 0.004 -98.3
2050........................................................ -135.5 -1.4 0.005 -136.9
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note:
\a\ For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less
dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
[[Page 40405]]
Table VII-30--Annual Fuel Savings in Calendar Years 2025, 2035 and 2050--
Preferred Alternative vs. Alt 1a using Analysis Method B \a\
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Diesel Gasoline
savings savings
CY (billion (billion
gallons) gallons)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
2025.......................................... 2.5 0.2
2035.......................................... 8.5 0.8
2050.......................................... 12.3 1.1
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note:
\a\ For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section
I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more
dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
Table VII-31--Annual Fuel Savings in Calendar Years 2025, 2035 and 2050--
Alternative 4 vs. Alt 1a using Analysis Method B \a\
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Diesel Gasoline
savings savings
CY (billion (billion
gallons) gallons)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
2025.......................................... 3.1 0.3
2035.......................................... 8.8 0.9
2050.......................................... 12.3 1.1
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note:
\a\ For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section
I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more
dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
(ii) Upstream (Fuel Production and Distribution) Emissions Projections
The upstream GHG emission reductions associated with the production
and distribution of gasoline and diesel from crude oil were based on
emission factors from DOE's ``Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions,
and Energy Use in Transportation'' (GREET) model. In some cases, the
GREET values were modified or updated by the agencies to be consistent
with EPA's National Emissions Inventory (NEI), and emission factors
from MOVES. More information regarding these modifications can be found
in Chapter 5 of the draft RIA. These estimates show the impacts for
domestic emission reductions only. Additionally, since this rulemaking
is not expected to impact biofuel volumes mandated by the Annual
Renewable Fuel Standards (RFS) regulations \391\, the impacts on
upstream emissions from changes in biofuel feedstock (i.e.,
agricultural sources such as fertilizer, fugitive dust, and livestock)
are not shown. GHG emission reductions from upstream sources can be
found in Table VII-32 and Table VII-33 for preferred alternative and
Alternative 4, respectively.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\391\ U.S. EPA. 2014 Standards for the Renewable Fuel Standard
Program. 40 CFR part 80. EPA-HQ-OAR-2013-0479; FRL-9900-90-OAR, RIN
2060-AR76.
Table VII-32--Annual Upstream GHG Emissions Impacts in Calendar Years 2025, 2035 and 2050--Preferred Alternative
vs. Alt 1a using Analysis Method B \a\
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total
CY CO2 (MMT) CH4 (MMT N2O (MMT uptream
CO2eq) CO2eq) (MMT CO2eq)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2025........................................................ -8.4 -0.9 -0.04 -9.3
2035........................................................ -29.1 -3.0 -0.14 -32.2
2050........................................................ -41.9 -4.4 -0.20 -46.5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note:
\a\ For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less
dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
Table VII-33--Annual Upstream GHG Emissions Impacts in Calendar Years 2025, 2035 and 2050--Alternative 4 vs. Alt
1a using Analysis Method B \a\
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total
CY CO2 (MMT) CH4 (MMT N2O (MMT uptream
CO2eq) CO2eq) (MMT CO2eq)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2025........................................................ -10.4 -1.0 -0.1 -11.5
2035........................................................ -30.1 -3.2 -0.1 -33.4
2050........................................................ -42.0 -4.4 -0.2 -46.6
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note:
\a\ For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less
dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
(iii) HFC Emissions Projections
Based on projected HFC emission reductions due to the proposed AC
leakage standards, EPA estimates the HFC reductions to be 93,272 metric
tons of CO2eq in 2025, 253,118 metric tons of
CO2eq in 2035, and 299,590 metric tons CO2eq in
2050, as detailed in Chapters 5.3.4 of the draft RIA. EPA welcomes
comments on the methodology used to quantify the HFC emissions
benefits, as detailed in Chapter 5 of the draft RIA.
(iv) Total (Downstream + Upstream + HFC) Emissions Projections
Table VII-34 combines the impacts of the preferred alternative from
downstream (Table VII-28), upstream (Table VII-32), and HFC to
summarize the total GHG reductions in calendar years 2025, 2035 and
2050, relative to Alternative 1a. The combined impact of Alternative 4
on total GHG emissions are shown in Table VII-35.
Because of the differences in lead time, as expected, Alternative 4
shows greater annual GHG reductions in earlier years (i.e., calendar
year 2025), but by
[[Page 40406]]
2050, the preferred alternative and Alternative 4 show the same
magnitude of reductions in annual GHG emissions.
Table VII-34--Annual Total GHG Emissions Impacts in Calendar Years 2025,
2035 and 2050--Preferred Alternative vs. Alt 1a using Analysis Method B
\a\
------------------------------------------------------------------------
2025 (MMT 2035 (MMT 2050 (MMT
CY CO2eq) CO2eq) CO2eq)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Downstream....................... -27.4 -94.7 -136.5
Upstream......................... -9.3 -32.2 -46.5
HFC.............................. -0.1 -0.25 -0.3
Total........................ -36.8 -127.2 -183.3
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note:
\a\ For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section
I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more
dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
Table VII-35--Annual Total GHG Emissions Impacts in Calendar Years 2025,
2035 and 2050--Alternative 4 vs. Alt 1a using Analysis Method B \a\
------------------------------------------------------------------------
2025 (MMT 2035 (MMT 2050 (MMT
CY CO2eq) CO2eq) CO2eq)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Downstream....................... -33.7 -98.3 -136.9
Upstream......................... -11.5 -33.4 -46.6
HFC.............................. -0.1 -0.25 -0.3
Total........................ -45.3 -132.0 -183.8
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note:
\a\ For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section
I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more
dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
(b) Model Year Lifetime Analysis
In addition to the annual GHG emissions and fuel consumption
reductions expected from the proposed rules and Alternative 4, the
combined (downstream and upstream) GHG and fuel consumption impacts for
the lifetime of the impacted vehicles were estimated. Table VII-36
shows the fleet-wide GHG reductions and fuel savings from the preferred
alternative and Alternative 4, relative to Alternative 1a, through the
lifetime \392\ of heavy-duty vehicles. Compared to the preferred
alternative, Alternative 4 shows greater lifetime GHG reductions and
fuels savings by 12 percent and 13 percent, respectively. For the
lifetime GHG reductions and fuel savings by vehicle categories, see
Chapter 5 of the draft RIA.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\392\ A lifetime of 30 years is assumed in MOVES.
Table VII-36--Lifetime GHG Reductions and Fuel Savings using Analysis
Method B--Summary for Model Years 2018-2029 \a\
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Model years Alternative Alternative
----------------------------------------------- 3 4
(proposed) ------------
-------------
No-action alternative (baseline) 1a (less 1a (less
dynamic) dynamic)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Fuel Savings (Billion Gallons)................ 75.8 85.4
Total GHG Reductions (MMT CO2eq).......... 1,036.4 1,163.1
Downstream (MMT CO2eq)................ 772.6 867.3
Upstream (MMT CO2eq).................. 263.8 295.8
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note:
\a\ For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section
I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more
dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
D. Climate Impacts and Indicators
(1) Climate Change Impacts From GHG Emissions
The impact of GHG emissions on the climate has been reviewed in the
2009 Endangerment and Cause or Contribute Findings for Greenhouse Gases
under Section 202(a) of the Clean Air Act, the 2012-2016 light-duty
vehicle rulemaking, the 2014-2018 heavy-duty vehicle GHG and Fuel
Efficiency rulemaking, and the 2017-2025 light-duty vehicle rulemaking,
and the proposed standards for new electricity utility generating
units. See 74 FR 66496; 75 FR 25491; 76 FR 57294; 77 FR 62894; 79 FR
1456-1459 (January 8, 2014). This section briefly discusses again some
of the climate impact of EPA's proposed actions in context of
transportation emissions. NHTSA has analyzed the climate impacts of its
specific proposed actions (i.e., excluding EPA's HFC regulatory
provisions) as well as reasonable alternative in its DEIS that
accompanies
[[Page 40407]]
this proposed rule. DOT has considered the potential climate impacts
documented in the DEIS as part of the rulemaking process.
Once emitted, GHGs that are the subject of this proposed regulation
can remain in the atmosphere for decades to millennia, meaning that (1)
their concentrations become well-mixed throughout the global atmosphere
regardless of emission origin, and (2) their effects on climate are
long lasting. GHG emissions come mainly from the combustion of fossil
fuels (coal, oil, and gas), with additional contributions from the
clearing of forests, agricultural activities, cement production, and
some industrial activities. Transportation activities, in aggregate,
were the second largest contributor to total U.S. GHG emissions in 2010
(27 percent of total emissions).\393\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\393\ U.S. EPA (2012) Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions
and Sinks: 1990-2010. EPA 430-R-12-001. Available at https://epa.gov/climatechange/emissions/downloads12/US-GHG-Inventory-2012-Main-Text.pdf.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
The EPA Administrator relied on thorough and peer-reviewed
assessments of climate change science prepared by the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (``IPCC''), the United States Global Change
Research Program (``USGCRP''), and the National Research Council of the
National Academies (``NRC'') \394\ as the primary scientific and
technical basis for the Endangerment and Cause or Contribute Findings
for Greenhouse Gases Under Section 202(a) of the Clean Air Act (74 FR
66496, December 15, 2009). These assessments comprehensively address
the scientific issues the EPA Administrator had to examine, providing
her data and information on a wide range of issues pertinent to the
Endangerment Finding. These assessments have been rigorously reviewed
by the expert community, and also by United States government agencies
and scientists, including by EPA itself.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\394\ For a complete list of core references from IPCC, USGCRP/
CCSP, NRC and others relied upon for development of the TSD for
EPA's Endangerment and Cause or Contribute Findings see section
1(b), specifically, Table 1.1 of the TSD. (Docket EPA-HQ-OAR-2010-
0799)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Based on these assessments, the EPA Administrator determined that
the emissions from new motor vehicles and engines contributes to
elevated concentrations of greenhouse gases, that these greenhouse
gases cause warming; that the recent warming has been attributed to the
increase in greenhouse gases; and that warming of the climate endangers
the public health and welfare of current and future generations. See
Coalition for Responsible Regulation v. EPA, 684 F. 3d 102, 121 (D.C.
Cir. 2012) (upholding all of EPA's findings and stating ``EPA had
before it substantial record evidence that anthropogenic emissions of
greenhouse gases `very likely' caused warming of the climate over the
last several decades. EPA further had evidence of current and future
effects of this warming on public health and welfare. Relying again
upon substantial scientific evidence, EPA determined that
anthropogenically induced climate change threatens both public health
and public welfare. It found that extreme weather events, changes in
air quality, increases in food- and water-borne pathogens, and
increases in temperatures are likely to have adverse health effects.
The record also supports EPA's conclusion that climate change endangers
human welfare by creating risk to food production and agriculture,
forestry, energy, infrastructure, ecosystems, and wildlife. Substantial
evidence further supported EPA's conclusion that the warming resulting
from the greenhouse gas emissions could be expected to create risks to
water resources and in general to coastal areas as a result of expected
increase in sea level.'')
A number of major peer-reviewed scientific assessments have been
released since the administrative record concerning the Endangerment
Finding closed following EPA's 2010 Reconsideration Denial.\395\ These
assessments include the ``Special Report on Managing the Risks of
Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation''
\396\, the 2013-14 Fifth Assessment Report (AR5),\397\ the 2014
National Climate Assessment report,\398\ the ``Ocean Acidification: A
National Strategy to Meet the Challenges of a Changing Ocean,'' \399\
``Report on Climate Stabilization Targets: Emissions, Concentrations,
and Impacts over Decades to Millennia,'' \400\ ``National Security
Implications for U.S. Naval Forces'' (National Security
Implications),\401\ ``Understanding Earth's Deep Past: Lessons for Our
Climate Future,'' \402\ ``Sea Level Rise for the Coasts of California,
Oregon, and Washington: Past, Present, and Future,'' \403\ ``Climate
and Social Stress: Implications for Security Analysis,'' \404\ and
``Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change'' (Abrupt Impacts) assessments.\405\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\395\ ``EPA's Denial of the Petitions to Reconsider the
Endangerment and Cause or Contribute Findings for Greenhouse Gases
under Section 202(a) of the Clean Air Act'', 75 FR 49,556 (Aug. 13,
2010) (``Reconsideration Denial'').
\396\ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). 2012:
Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance
Climate Change Adaption. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II
of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge
University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, NY, USA.
\397\ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). 2013.
Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of
Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University
Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA,
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). 2014. Climate
Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Contribution of
Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University
Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA,
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). 2014. Climate
Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working
Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge,
United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
\398\ Melillo, Jerry M., Terese (T.C.) Richmond, and Gary W.
Yohe, Eds. 2014. Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The
Third National Climate Assessment. U.S. Global Change Research
Program. Available at https://nca2014.globalchange.gov.
\399\ National Research Council (NRC). 2010. Ocean
Acidification: A National Strategy to Meet the Challenges of a
Changing Ocean. National Academies Press. Washington, DC.
\400\ National Research Council (NRC). 2011. Climate
Stabilization Targets: Emissions, Concentrations, and Impacts over
Decades to Millennia. National Academies Press, Washington, DC.
\401\ National Research Council (NRC) 2011. National Security
Implications of Climate Change for U.S. Naval Forces. National
Academies Press. Washington, DC.
\402\ National Research Council (NRC). 2012. Sea-Level Rise for
the Coasts of California, Oregon, and Washington: Past, Present, and
Future. National Academies Press. Washington, DC.
\403\ National Research Council (NRC). 2012. Sea-Level Rise for
the Coasts of California, Oregon, and Washington: Past, Present, and
Future. National Academies Press. Washington, DC.
\404\ National Research Council (NRC). 2013. Climate and Social
Stress: Implications for Security Analysis. National Academies
Press. Washington, DC.
\405\ National Research Council (NRC). 2013. Abrupt Impacts of
Climate Change: Anticipating Surprises. National Academies Press.
Washington, DC.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
EPA has reviewed these assessments and finds that in general, the
improved understanding of the climate system they present are
consistent with the assessments underlying the 2009 Endangerment
Finding.
The most recent assessments released were the IPCC AR5 assessments
between September 2013 and April 2014, the NRC Abrupt Impacts
assessment in December of 2013, and the U.S. National Climate
Assessment in May of 2014. The NRC Abrupt Impacts report examines the
potential for tipping points, thresholds beyond which major and rapid
changes occur in the Earth's climate system or other systems impacted
by the climate. The Abrupt
[[Page 40408]]
Impacts report did find less cause for concern than some previous
assessments regarding some abrupt events within the next century such
as disruption of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)
and sudden releases of high-latitude methane from hydrates and
permafrost, but found that the potential for abrupt changes in
ecosystems, weather and climate extremes, and groundwater supplies
critical for agriculture now seem more likely, severe, and imminent.
The assessment found that some abrupt changes were already underway
(Arctic sea ice retreat and increases in extinction risk due to the
speed of climate change), but cautioned that even abrupt changes such
as the AMOC disruption that are not expected in this century can have
severe impacts when they happen.
The IPCC AR5 assessments are also generally consistent with the
underlying science supporting the 2009 Endangerment Finding. For
example, confidence in attributing recent warming to human causes has
increased: The IPCC stated that it is extremely likely (>95 percent
confidence) that human influences have been the dominant cause of
recent warming. Moreover, the IPCC found that the last 30 years were
likely (>66 percent confidence) the warmest 30 year period in the
Northern Hemisphere of the past 1400 years, that the rate of ice loss
of worldwide glaciers and the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets has
likely increased, that there is medium confidence that the recent
summer sea ice retreat in the Arctic is larger than it has been in 1450
years, and that concentrations of carbon dioxide and several other of
the major greenhouse gases are higher than they have been in at least
800,000 years. Climate-change induced impacts have been observed in
changing precipitation patterns, melting snow and ice, species
migration, negative impacts on crops, increased heat and decreased cold
mortality, and altered ranges for water-borne illnesses and disease
vectors. Additional risks from future changes include death, injury,
and disrupted livelihoods in coastal zones and regions vulnerable to
inland flooding, food insecurity linked to warming, drought, and
flooding, especially for poor populations, reduced access to drinking
and irrigation water for those with minimal capital in semi-arid
regions, and decreased biodiversity in marine ecosystems, especially in
the Arctic and tropics, with implications for coastal livelihoods. The
IPCC determined that ``[c]ontinued emissions of greenhouse gases will
cause further warming and changes in all components of the climate
system. Limiting climate change will require substantial and sustained
reductions of greenhouse gases emissions.''
Finally, the recently released National Climate Assessment stated,
``Climate change is already affecting the American people in far
reaching ways. Certain types of extreme weather events with links to
climate change have become more frequent and/or intense, including
prolonged periods of heat, heavy downpours, and, in some regions,
floods and droughts. In addition, warming is causing sea level to rise
and glaciers and Arctic sea ice to melt, and oceans are becoming more
acidic as they absorb carbon dioxide. These and other aspects of
climate change are disrupting people's lives and damaging some sectors
of our economy.''
Assessments from these bodies represent the current state of
knowledge, comprehensively cover and synthesize thousands of individual
studies to obtain the majority conclusions from the body of scientific
literature and undergo a rigorous and exacting standard of review by
the peer expert community and U.S. government.
Based on modeling analysis performed by the agencies, reductions in
CO2 and other GHG emissions associated with these proposed
rules will affect future climate change. Since GHGs are well-mixed in
the atmosphere and have long atmospheric lifetimes, changes in GHG
emissions will affect atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases
and future climate for decades to millennia, depending on the gas. This
section provides estimates of the projected change in atmospheric
CO2 concentrations based on the emission reductions
estimated for these proposed rules, compared to the reference case. In
addition, this section analyzes the response to the changes in GHG
concentrations of the following climate-related variables: Global mean
temperature, sea level rise, and ocean pH.
(2) Projected Change in Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations,
Global Mean Surface Temperature and Sea Level Rise
To assess the impact of the emissions reductions from the proposed
rules, EPA estimated changes in projected atmospheric CO2
concentrations, global mean surface temperature and sea-level rise to
2100 using the GCAM (Global Change Assessment Model, formerly MiniCAM),
integrated assessment model \406\ coupled with the MAGICC (Model for
the Assessment of Greenhouse-gas Induced Climate Change) simple climate
model.\407\ GCAM was used to create the globally and temporally
consistent set of climate relevant emissions required for running
MAGICC. MAGICC was then used to estimate the projected change in
relevant climate variables over time. Given the magnitude of the
estimated emissions reductions associated with these rules, a simple
climate model such as MAGICC is appropriate for estimating the
atmospheric and climate response.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\406\ GCAM is a long-term, global integrated assessment model of
energy, economy, agriculture and land use that considers the sources
of emissions of a suite of greenhouse gases (GHG's), emitted in 14
globally disaggregated regions, the fate of emissions to the
atmosphere, and the consequences of changing concentrations of
greenhouse related gases for climate change. GCAM begins with a
representation of demographic and economic developments in each
region and combines these with assumptions about technology
development to describe an internally consistent representation of
energy, agriculture, land-use, and economic developments that in
turn shape global emissions.
\407\ MAGICC consists of a suite of coupled gas-cycle, climate
and ice-melt models integrated into a single framework. The
framework allows the user to determine changes in greenhouse-gas
concentrations, global-mean surface air temperature and sea-level
resulting from anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide
(CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), reactive gases
(CO, NOX, VOCs), the halocarbons (e.g. HCFCs, HFCs, PFCs)
and sulfur dioxide (SO2). MAGICC emulates the global-mean
temperature responses of more sophisticated coupled Atmosphere/Ocean
General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) with high accuracy.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
The analysis projects that the proposed rules would reduce
atmospheric concentrations of CO2, global climate warming,
ocean acidification, and sea level rise relative to the reference case.
Although the projected reductions and improvements are small in
comparison to the total projected climate change, they are
quantifiable, directionally consistent, and will contribute to reducing
the risks associated with climate change. Climate change is a global
phenomenon and EPA recognizes that this one national action alone will
not prevent it; EPA notes this would be true for any given GHG
mitigation action when taken alone or when considered in isolation. EPA
also notes that a substantial portion of CO2 emitted into
the atmosphere is not removed by natural processes for millennia, and
therefore each unit of CO2 not emitted into the atmosphere
due to this rules avoids essentially permanent climate change on
centennial time scales.
EPA determines that the projected reductions in atmospheric
CO2, global mean temperature, sea level rise, and ocean pH
are meaningful in the context of this action. The results of the
analysis, summarized in Table VII-37, demonstrate that relative to the
[[Page 40409]]
reference case, by 2100 projected atmospheric CO2
concentrations are estimated to be reduced by 1.1 to 1.2 part per
million by volume (ppmv), global mean temperature is estimated to be
reduced by 0.0026 to 0.0065 [deg]C, and sea-level rise is projected to
be reduced by approximately 0.023 to 0.057 cm, based on a range of
climate sensitivities (described below). Details about this modeling
analysis can be found in the draft RIA Chapter 6.3.
Table VII-37--Impact of GHG Emissions Reductions on Projected Changes in Global Climate Associated With Proposed
Phase 2 Standards for MY 2018-2024
[Based on a range of climate sensitivities from 1.5-6 [deg]C]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Variable Units Year Projected change
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Atmospheric CO2 CONCENTRATION....... ppmv................... 2100 -1.1 to -1.2
Global Mean Surface Temperature..... [deg]C................. 2100 -0.0026 to -0.0065
Sea Level Rise...................... cm..................... 2100 -0.023 to -0.057
Ocean pH............................ pH units............... 2100 +0.0006 \a\
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note:
\a\ The value for projected change in ocean pH is based on a climate sensitivity of 3.0.
The projected reductions are small relative to the change in
temperature (1.8-4.8 [deg]C), CO2 concentration (404 to 470
ppm), sea level rise (23-56 cm), and ocean acidity (-0.30 pH units)
from 1990 to 2100 from the MAGICC simulations for the GCAM reference
case. However, this is to be expected given the magnitude of emissions
reductions expected from the program in the context of global
emissions. Moreover, these effects are occurring everywhere around the
globe, so benefits that appear to be marginal for any one location,
such as a reduction in seal level rise of half a millimeter, can be
sizable when the effects are summed along thousands of miles of
coastline. This uncertainty range does not include the effects of
uncertainty in future emissions. It should also be noted that the
calculations in MAGICC do not include the possible effects of
accelerated ice flow in Greenland and/or Antarctica: Estimates of sea
level rise from the recent NRC, IPCC, and NCA assessments range from 26
cm to 2 meters depending on the emissions scenario, the processes
included, and the likelihood range assessed; inclusion of these effects
would lead to correspondingly larger benefits of mitigation. Further
discussion of EPA's modeling analysis is found in the RIA, Chapter 6.3.
Based on the projected atmospheric CO2 concentration
reductions resulting from these proposed rules, EPA calculates an
increase in ocean pH of 0.0006 pH units in 2100 relative to the
baseline case (this is a reduction in the expected acidification of the
ocean of a decrease of 0.3 pH units from 1990 to 2100 in the baseline
case). Thus, this analysis indicates the projected decrease in
atmospheric CO2 concentrations from the proposed Phase 2
standards would result in an increase in ocean pH (i.e., a reduction in
the expected acidification of the ocean in the reference case). A more
detailed discussion of the modeling analysis associated with ocean pH
is provided in the draft RIA, Chapter 6.3.
The 2011 NRC assessment on ``Climate Stabilization Targets:
Emissions, Concentrations, and Impacts over Decades to Millennia''
determined how a number of climate impacts--such as heaviest daily
rainfalls, crop yields, and Arctic sea ice extent--would change with a
temperature change of 1 degree Celsius (C) of warming. These
relationships of impacts with temperature change could be combined with
the calculated reductions in warming in Table VII-37 to estimate
changes in these impacts associated with this proposed rulemaking.
As a substantial portion of CO2 emitted into the
atmosphere is not removed by natural processes for millennia, each unit
of CO2 not emitted into the atmosphere avoids some degree of
effectively permanent climate change. Therefore, reductions in
emissions in the near-term are important in determining climate impacts
experienced not just over the next decades but over thousands of
years.\408\ Though the magnitude of the avoided climate change
projected here in isolation is small in comparison to the total
projected changes, these reductions represent a reduction in the
adverse risks associated with climate change (though these risks were
not formally estimated for this action) across a range of equilibrium
climate sensitivities.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\408\ National Research Council (NRC) (2011). Climate
Stabilization Targets: Emissions, Concentrations, and Impacts over
Decades to Millennia. National Academy Press. Washington, DC.
(Docket EPA-HQ-OAR-2010-0799)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
EPA's analysis of this proposed rule's impact on global climate
conditions is intended to quantify these potential reductions using the
best available science. EPA's modeling results show consistent
reductions relative to the baseline case in changes of CO2
concentration, temperature, sea-level rise, and ocean pH over the next
century.
VIII. How will this proposed action impact non-GHG emissions and their
associated effects?
The proposed heavy-duty vehicle standards are expected to influence
the emissions of criteria air pollutants and several air toxics. This
section describes the projected impacts of the proposed rules and
Alternative 4 on non-GHG emissions and air quality, and the health and
environmental effects associated with these pollutants. NHTSA further
analyzes these projected health and environmental effects resulting
from its proposed rules and reasonable alternatives in Chapter 4 of its
DEIS.
A. Emissions Inventory Impacts
As described in Section VII, the agencies conducted coordinated and
complementary analyses for these rules by employing both DOT's CAFE
model and EPA's MOVES model, relative to different reference cases
(i.e., different baselines). The agencies used EPA's MOVES model to
estimate the non-GHG impacts for tractor-trailers (including the engine
that powers the vehicle), and vocational vehicles (including the engine
that powers the vehicle). For heavy-duty pickups and vans, the agencies
performed complementary analyses using the CAFE model (``Method A'')
and the MOVES model (``Method B'') to estimate non-GHG emissions from
these vehicles. For both methods, the agencies analyzed the impact of
the proposed rules, relative to two different reference cases--less
dynamic and more dynamic. The less dynamic baseline projects very
little improvement in new vehicles in the absence of new Phase 2
standards. In contrast, the more dynamic baseline
[[Page 40410]]
projects more improvements in vehicle fuel efficiency. The agencies
considered both reference cases. The results for all of the regulatory
alternatives relative to both reference cases, derived via the same
methodologies discussed in Section VII of the Preamble, are presented
in Section X of the Preamble.
For brevity, a subset of these analyses are presented in this
section and the reader is referred to both the RIA Chapter 11 and
NHTSA's DEIS Chapters 3 and 5 for complete sets of these analyses. In
this section, Method A is presented for both the proposed standards
(i.e., Alternative 3--the agencies' preferred alternative) and for the
standards the agencies considered in Alternative 4, relative to both
the more dynamic baseline (Alternative 1b) and the less dynamic
baseline (Alternative 1a). Method B is presented also for the proposed
standards and Alternative 4, but relative only to the less dynamic
baseline. The agencies' intention for presenting both of these
complementary and coordinated analyses is to offer interested readers
the opportunity to compare the regulatory alternatives considered for
Phase 2 in both the context of our HD Phase 1 analytical approaches and
our light-duty vehicle analytical approaches. The agencies view these
analyses as corroborative and reinforcing: Both support agencies'
conclusion that the proposed standards are appropriate and at the
maximum feasible levels.
The following subsections summarize two slightly different analyses
of the annual non-GHG emissions reductions expected from the proposed
standards and Alternative 4. Section VIII. A. (1) presents the impacts
of the proposed rules and Alternative 4 on non-GHG emissions using the
analytical Method A, relative to two different reference cases--less
dynamic and more dynamic. Section VIII. A. (2) presents the impacts of
the proposed standards and Alternative 4, relative to the less dynamic
reference case only, using the MOVES model for all heavy-duty vehicle
categories.
(1) Impacts of the Proposed Rules and Alternative 4 Using Analysis
Method A
(a) Calendar Year Analysis
(i) Upstream Impacts of the Proposed Program and Alternative 4
Increasing efficiency in heavy-duty vehicles would result in
reduced fuel demand, and therefore, reductions in the emissions
associated with all processes involved in getting petroleum to the
pump. Both Method A and Method B project these impacts for fuel
consumed by vocational vehicles and combination tractor-trailers, using
the same methods. See Section VIII.A.(2) (a)(i) for the description of
this methodology. To project these impacts for fuel consumed by HD
pickups and vans, Method A used similar calculations and inputs
applicable to the CAFE model, as discussed above in Section VI. More
information on the development of the emission factors used in this
analysis can be found in Chapter 5 of the draft RIA.
The following four tables summarize the projected upstream emission
impacts of the preferred alternative and Alternative 4 on both criteria
pollutants and air toxics from the heavy-duty sector, relative to
Alternative 1b (more dynamic baseline conditions under the No-Action
Alternative) and Alternative 1a (less dynamic baseline conditions under
the No-Action Alternative).
Table VIII-1--Annual Upstream Impacts on Criteria Pollutants and Air Toxics From Heavy-Duty Sector in Calendar
Years 2025, 2035 and 2050--Preferred Alternative vs. Alt 1b using Analysis Method A \a\
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CY2025 CY2035 CY2050
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pollutant US short US short US short
tons % Reduction tons % Reduction tons % Reduction
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1,3-Butadiene..................... -1 -5 -3 -14 -5 -17
Acetaldehyde...................... -3 -3 -10 -11 -15 -13
Acrolein.......................... 0 -4 -1 -12 -2 -15
Benzene........................... -21 -4 -74 -13 -104 -15
CO................................ -3,798 -5 -12,087 -14 -17,120 -17
Formaldehyde...................... -19 -5 -59 -14 -84 -17
NOX............................... -9,472 -5 -30,333 -14 -42,839 -17
PM2.5............................. -1,019 -5 -3,257 -14 -4,609 -17
SOX............................... -5,983 -5 -19,190 -14 -27,074 -17
VOC............................... -3,066 -4 -11,029 -13 -15,386 -15
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note:
\a\ For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less
dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
Table VIII-2--Annual Upstream Impacts on Criteria Pollutants and Air Toxics From Heavy-Duty Sector in Calendar
Years 2025, 2035 and 2050--Alternative 4 vs. Alt 1b using Analysis Method A \a\
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CY2025 CY2035 CY2050
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pollutant US short US short US short
tons % Reduction tons % Reduction tons % Reduction
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1,3-Butadiene..................... -1 -6 -3 -15 -5 -17
Acetaldehyde...................... -4 -5 -11 -12 -15 -14
Acrolein.......................... -1 -5 -1 -13 -2 -15
Benzene........................... -28 -5 -78 -13 -105 -16
CO................................ -4,679 -6 -12,640 -15 -17,263 -17
Formaldehyde...................... -23 -6 -62 -15 -85 -17
NOX............................... -11,708 -6 -31,769 -15 -43,263 -17
PM2.5............................. -1,259 -6 -3,408 -15 -4,649 -17
SOX............................... -7,402 -6 -20,107 -15 -27,356 -17
[[Page 40411]]
VOC............................... -4,081 -5 -11,717 -13 -15,645 -15
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note:
\a\ For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less
dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
Table VIII-3--Annual Upstream Impacts on Criteria Pollutants and Air Toxics From Heavy-Duty Sector in Calendar
Years 2025, 2035 and 2050--Preferred Alternative vs. Alt 1a using Analysis Method A \a\
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CY2025 CY2035 CY2050
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pollutant US short US short US short
tons % Reduction tons % Reduction tons % Reduction
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1,3-Butadiene..................... -1 -5 -4 -15 -5 -18
Acetaldehyde...................... -3 -3 -11 -12 -16 -14
Acrolein.......................... 0 -4 -1 -13 -2 -15
Benzene........................... -22 -4 -80 -14 -113 -16
CO................................ -3,911 -5 -13,153 -15 -18,794 -18
Formaldehyde...................... -19 -5 -65 -15 -92 -18
NOX............................... -9,787 -5 -33,021 -15 -47,028 -18
PM2.5............................. -1,051 -5 -3,545 -15 -5,058 -18
SOX............................... -6,189 -5 -20,896 -15 -29,726 -18
VOC............................... -3,193 -4 -11,848 -13 -16,625 -16
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note:
\a\ For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less
dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
Table VIII-4--Annual Upstream Impacts on Criteria Pollutants and Air Toxics From Heavy-Duty Sector in Calendar
Years 2025, 2035 and 2050--Alternative 4 vs. Alt 1a using Analysis Method A \a\
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CY2025 CY2035 CY2050
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pollutant US short US short US short
tons % Reduction tons % Reduction tons % Reduction
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1,3-Butadiene..................... -1 -6 -4 -16 -5 -18
Acetaldehyde...................... -4 -5 -12 -12 -16 -14
Acrolein.......................... -1 -5 -1 -13 -2 -16
Benzene........................... -29 -5 -84 -14 -114 -17
CO................................ -4,816 -6 -13,720 -16 -18,945 -18
Formaldehyde...................... -24 -6 -67 -16 -93 -18
NOX............................... -12,098 -6 -34,501 -16 -47,477 -18
PM2.5............................. -1,298 -6 -3,700 -16 -5,101 -18
SOX............................... -7,658 -6 -21,843 -16 -30,024 -18
VOC............................... -4,251 -5 -12,541 -14 -16,870 -16
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note:
\a\ For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less
dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
(ii) Downstream Impacts of the Proposed Program and Alternative 4
For vocational vehicles and tractor-trailers, the agencies used the
MOVES model to determine non-GHG emissions inventories. The
improvements in engine efficiency and road load, the increased use of
APUs, and VMT rebound were included in the MOVES analysis. For the
analysis presented in this section, the DOT CAFE model was used for HD
pickups and vans. Further information about DOT's CAFE model is
available in Section VI.C and Chapter 10 of the draft RIA. The
following four tables summarize the projected downstream emission
impacts of the preferred alternative and Alternative 4 on both criteria
pollutants and air toxics from the heavy-duty sector, relative to
Alternative 1b and Alternative 1a.
[[Page 40412]]
Table VIII-5--Annual Downstream Impacts on Criteria Pollutants and Air Toxics From Heavy-Duty Sector in Calendar
Years 2025, 2035 and 2050--Preferred Alternative vs. Alt 1b using Analysis Method A \a\
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CY2025 CY2035 CY2050
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pollutant US short US short US short
tons % Reduction tons % Reduction tons % Reduction
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1,3-Butadiene..................... -8 -3 -21 -12 -30 -16
Acetaldehyde...................... -669 -10 -1,882 -31 -2,667 -36
Acrolein.......................... -97 -10 -272 -31 -385 -37
Benzene........................... -123 -6 -347 -19 -490 -24
CO................................ -26,485 -3 -75,199 -8 -106,756 -9
Formaldehyde...................... -2,100 -12 -5,910 -32 -8,376 -37
NOX............................... -92,444 -7 -260,949 -28 -370,663 -34
PM2.5 \b\......................... 643 2 1,722 8 2,410 10
SOX............................... -229 -4 -715 -13 -1,026 -15
VOC............................... -13,161 -6 -38,051 -21 -54,139 -26
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Notes:
\a\ For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less
dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
\b\ Positive number means emissions would increase from reference to control case. PM2.5 from tire wear and
brake wear are included.
Table VIII-6--Annual Downstream Impacts on Criteria Pollutants and Air Toxics From Heavy-Duty Sector in Calendar
Years 2025, 2035 and 2050--Alternative 4 vs. Alt 1b using Analysis Method A \a\
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CY2025 CY2035 CY2050
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pollutant US short US short US short
tons % Reduction tons % Reduction tons % Reduction
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1,3-Butadiene..................... -8 -2 -21 -12 -30 -16
Acetaldehyde...................... -669 -10 -1,882 -31 -2,667 -36
Acrolein.......................... -97 -10 -271 -31 -385 -37
Benzene........................... -124 -6 -347 -19 -490 -24
CO................................ -26,705 -3 -75,407 -8 -106,874 -9
Formaldehyde...................... -2,100 -12 -5,908 -32 -8,375 -37
NOX............................... -93,984 -8 -262,150 -28 -370,704 -34
PM2.5 \b\......................... 619 2 1,705 8 2,412 10
SOX............................... -280 -5 -742 -13 -1,029 -15
VOC............................... -13,925 -7 -38,472 -22 -54,150 -26
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Notes:
\a\ For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less
dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
\b\ Positive number means emissions would increase from reference to control case. PM2.5 from tire wear and
brake wear are included.
Table VIII-7--Annual Downstream Impacts on Criteria Pollutants and Air Toxics From Heavy-Duty Sector in Calendar
Years 2025, 2035 and 2050--Preferred Alternative vs. Alt 1a using Analysis Method A \a\
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CY2025 CY2035 CY2050
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pollutant US short US short US short
tons % Reduction tons % Reduction tons % Reduction
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1,3-Butadiene..................... -8 -3 -21 -12 -30 -16
Acetaldehyde...................... -669 -10 -1,880 -31 -2,664 -36
Acrolein.......................... -97 -10 -271 -31 -384 -37
Benzene........................... -123 -6 -346 -19 -490 -24
CO................................ -26,576 -3 -75,571 -8 -107,287 -9
Formaldehyde...................... -2,100 -12 -5,904 -32 -8,369 -37
NOX............................... -93,197 -8 -266,890 -29 -380,303 -35
PM2.5 \b\......................... 632 2 1,635 8 2,267 9
SOX............................... -232 -4 -776 -14 -1,125 -16
VOC............................... -13,210 -6 -38,964 -22 -55,628 -26
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Notes:
\a\ For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less
dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
\b\ Positive number means emissions would increase from reference to control case. PM2.5 from tire wear and
brake wear are included.
[[Page 40413]]
Table VIII-8--Annual Downstream Impacts on Criteria Pollutants and Air Toxics from Heavy-Duty Sector in Calendar
Years 2025, 2035 and 2050--Alternative 4 vs. Alt 1a using Analysis Method A \a\
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CY2025 CY2035 CY2050
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pollutant US short US short US short
tons % Reduction tons % Reduction tons % Reduction
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1,3-Butadiene..................... -8 -2 -21 -12 -29 -16
Acetaldehyde...................... -668 -10 -1,880 -31 -2,664 -36
Acrolein.......................... -97 -10 -271 -31 -384 -37
Benzene........................... -124 -6 -346 -19 -489 -24
CO................................ -26,821 -3 -75,795 -8 -107,414 -9
Formaldehyde...................... -2,099 -12 -5,902 -32 -8,367 -37
NOX............................... -94,724 -8 -268,075 -29 -380,328 -35
PM2.5 \b\......................... 609 2 1,618 8 2,269 9
SOX............................... -282 -5 -803 -14 -1,127 -16
VOC............................... -13,971 -7 -39,383 -22 -55,638 -26
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Notes:
\a\ For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less
dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
\b\ Positive number means emissions would increase from reference to control case. PM2.5 from tire wear and
brake wear are included.
(iii) Total Impacts of the Proposed Program and Alternative 4
The following four tables summarize the projected upstream emission
impacts of the preferred alternative and Alternative 4 on both criteria
pollutants and air toxics from the heavy-duty sector, relative to
Alternative 1b and Alternative 1a.
Table VIII-9--Annual Total Impacts (Upstream and Downstream) of Criteria Pollutants and Air Toxics From Heavy-
Duty Sector in Calendar Years 2025, 2035 and 2050--Preferred Alternative vs. Alt 1b Using Analysis Method A \a\
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CY2025 CY2035 CY2050
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pollutant US short US short US short
tons % reduction tons % reduction tons % reduction
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1,3-Butadiene..................... -9 -3 -25 -13 -34 -16
Acetaldehyde...................... -672 -10 -1,893 -30 -2,682 -36
Acrolein.......................... -97 -10 -273 -31 -387 -37
Benzene........................... -145 -5 -421 -18 -595 -22
CO................................ -30,282 -3 -87,286 -8 -123,876 -10
Formaldehyde...................... -2,119 -11 -5,969 -32 -8,460 -37
NOX............................... -101,916 -7 -291,282 -26 -413,501 -31
PM2.5............................. -376 -1 -1,535 -3 -2,199 -4
SOX............................... -6,213 -5 -19,905 -14 -28,101 -17
VOC............................... -16,227 -6 -49,080 -18 -69,525 -22
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note:
\a\ For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less
dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
Table VIII-10--Annual Total Impacts (Upstream and Downstream) of Criteria Pollutants and Air Toxics From Heavy-
Duty Sector in Calendar Years 2025, 2035 and 2050--Alternative 4 vs. Alt 1b Using Analysis Method A \a\
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CY2025 CY2035 CY2050
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pollutant US short US short US short
tons % reduction tons % reduction tons % reduction
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1,3-Butadiene..................... -9 -3 -25 -13 -34 -16
Acetaldehyde...................... -673 -10 -1,893 -30 -2,682 -36
Acrolein.......................... -97 -10 -273 -31 -387 -37
Benzene........................... -152 -6 -426 -18 -595 -22
CO................................ -31,383 -3 -88,047 -8 -124,137 -10
Formaldehyde...................... -2,123 -11 -5,970 -32 -8,460 -37
NOX............................... -105,693 -7 -293,918 -26 -413,967 -31
PM2.5............................. -639 -1 -1,703 -4 -2,237 -4
SOX............................... -7,682 -6 -20,849 -15 -28,385 -17
[[Page 40414]]
VOC............................... -18,006 -6 -50,189 -19 -69,796 -22
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note:
\a\ For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less
dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
Table VIII-11--Annual Total Impacts (Upstream and Downstream) of Criteria Pollutants and Air Toxics From Heavy-
Duty Sector in Calendar Years 2025, 2035 and 2050--Preferred Alternative vs. Alt 1a Using Analysis Method A \a\
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CY2025 CY2035 CY2050
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pollutant US short US short US short
tons % reduction tons % reduction tons % reduction
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1,3-Butadiene..................... -9 -3 -25 -13 -35 -16
Acetaldehyde...................... -672 -10 -1,891 -30 -2,680 -36
Acrolein.......................... -97 -10 -273 -31 -386 -37
Benzene........................... -145 -5 -425 -18 -603 -22
CO................................ -30,487 -3 -88,724 -8 -126,081 -10
Formaldehyde...................... -2,119 -11 -5,969 -32 -8,461 -37
NOX............................... -102,983 -7 -299,911 -26 -427,332 -32
PM2.5............................. -419 -1 -1,910 -4 -2,791 -5
SOX............................... -6,421 -5 -21,672 -15 -30,850 -18
VOC............................... -16,403 -6 -50,812 -19 -72,253 -23
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note:
\a\ For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less
dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
Table VIII-12--Annual Total Impacts (Upstream and Downstream) of Criteria Pollutants and Air Toxics From Heavy-
Duty Sector in Calendar Years 2025, 2035 and 2050--Alternative 4 vs. Alt 1a Using Analysis Method A \a\
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CY2025 CY2035 CY2050
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pollutant US short US short US short
tons % reduction tons % reduction tons % reduction
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1,3-Butadiene..................... -9 -3 -25 -13 -35 -16
Acetaldehyde...................... -672 -10 -1,891 -30 -2,679 -36
Acrolein.......................... -97 -10 -273 -31 -386 -37
Benzene........................... -153 -6 -430 -18 -603 -22
CO................................ -31,637 -3 -89,514 -8 -126,360 -10
Formaldehyde...................... -2,123 -11 -5,969 -32 -8,460 -37
NOX............................... -106,822 -7 -302,575 -26 -427,805 -32
PM2.5............................. -689 -1 -2,082 -5 -2,833 -5
SOX............................... -7,941 -6 -22,646 -16 -31,151 -18
VOC............................... -18,222 -6 -51,924 -19 -72,509 -23
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note:
\a\ For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less
dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
(b) Model Year Lifetime Analysis
Table VIII-13--Lifetime Non-GHG Reductions Using Analysis Method A--Summary for Model Years 2018-2029 (US Short
Tons) \a\
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Alternative 3 (proposed) Alternative 4
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
No-action alternative (baseline) 1b (more 1a (less 1b (more 1a (less
dynamic) dynamic) dynamic) dynamic)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NOX..................................... 2,359,548 2,409,738 2,420,931 2,472,021
Downstream.......................... 2,103,163 2,137,232 2,130,659 2,164,458
[[Page 40415]]
Upstream............................ 256,385 272,506 290,272 307,563
PM2.5................................... 13,496 15,706 17,524 19,839
Downstream \b\...................... -14,051 -13,546 -13,649 -13,153
Upstream............................ 27,547 29,252 31,173 32,992
SOX..................................... 167,415 177,948 189,670 200,992
Downstream.......................... 5,326 5,562 6,079 6,311
Upstream............................ 162,089 172,386 183,591 194,681
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Notes:
\a\ For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less
dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
\b\ Negative number means emissions would increase from reference to control case. PM2.5 from tire wear and
brake wear are included.
(2) Impacts of the Proposed Rules and Alternative 4 using Analysis
Method B
(a) Calendar Year Analysis
(i) Upstream Impacts of the Proposed Program and Alternative 4
Increasing efficiency in heavy-duty vehicles would result in
reduced fuel demand, and therefore, reductions in the emissions
associated with all processes involved in getting petroleum to the
pump. To project these impacts, Method B estimated the impact of
reduced petroleum volumes on the extraction and transportation of crude
oil as well as the production and distribution of finished gasoline and
diesel. For the purpose of assessing domestic-only emission reductions,
it was necessary to estimate the fraction of fuel savings attributable
to domestic finished gasoline and diesel, and of this fuel, what
fraction is produced from domestic crude. Method B estimated the
emissions associated with production and distribution of gasoline and
diesel from crude oil based on emission factors in the ``Greenhouse
Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy used in Transportation'' model
(GREET) developed by DOE's Argonne National Laboratory. In some cases,
the GREET values were modified or updated by the agencies to be
consistent with the National Emission Inventory (NEI) and emission
factors from MOVES. Method B estimated the projected corresponding
changes in upstream emissions using the same tools originally created
for the Renewable Fuel Standard 2 (RFS2) rulemaking analysis,\409\ used
in the LD GHG rulemakings,\410\ HD GHG Phase 1,\411\ and updated for
the current analysis. More information on the development of the
emission factors used in this analysis can be found in Chapter 5 of the
draft RIA.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\409\ U.S. EPA. Draft Regulatory Impact Analysis: Changes to
Renewable Fuel Standard Program. Chapters 2 and 3. May 26, 2009.
Docket ID: EPA-HQ-OAR-2009-0472-0119.
\410\ 2017 and Later Model Year Light-Duty Vehicle Greenhouse
Gas Emissions and Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards (77 FR
62623, October 15, 2012).
\411\ Greenhouse Gas Emission Standards and Fuel Efficiency
Standards for Medium- and Heavy-Duty Engines and Vehicles (76 FR
57106, September 15, 2011).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table VIII-14 and Table VIII-15 summarizes the projected upstream
emission impacts of the Preferred Alternative and Alternative 4 on both
criteria pollutants and air toxics from the heavy-duty sector, relative
to Alternative 1a. The comparable estimates relative to Alternative 1b
are presented in Section VIII. A. (1).
Table VIII-14--Annual Upstream Impacts on Criteria Pollutants and Air Toxics From Heavy-Duty Sector in Calendar
Years 2025, 2035 and 2050--Preferred Alternative vs. Alt 1a Using Analysis Method B \a\
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CY2025 CY2035 CY2050
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pollutant US short US short US short
tons % Reduction tons % Reduction tons % Reduction
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1,3-Butadiene..................... -1 -5.0 -4 -15.3 -5 -18.4
Acetaldehyde...................... -4 -3.0 -18 -11.9 -26 -14.6
Acrolein.......................... -0.5 -3.4 -2 -12.7 -3 -15.5
Benzene........................... -24 -3.8 -92 -13.4 -132 -16.3
CO................................ -3,798 -4.9 -13,001 -15.3 -18,772 -18.4
Formaldehyde...................... -19 -4.7 -67 -14.9 -98 -18.0
NOX............................... -9,282 -4.9 -31,782 -15.3 -45,888 -18.4
PM2.5............................. -1,020 -4.9 -3,514 -15.2 -5,072 -18.2
SOX............................... -5,817 -4.9 -19,902 -15.3 -28,736 -18.4
VOC............................... -3,283 -3.7 -12,724 -13.2 -18,214 -16.1
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note:
\a\ For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less
dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
[[Page 40416]]
Table VIII-15--Annual Upstream Impacts on Criteria Pollutants and Air Toxics From Heavy-Duty Sector in Calendar
Years 2025, 2035 and 2050--Alternative 4 vs. Alt 1a Using Analysis Method B \a\
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CY2025 CY2035 CY2050
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pollutant US short US short US short
tons % Reduction tons % Reduction tons % Reduction
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1,3-Butadiene..................... -1 -6.1 -4 -15.9 -5 -18.4
Acetaldehyde...................... -6 -4.3 -20 -12.6 -26 -14.7
Acrolein.......................... -1 -4.7 -2 -13.3 -3 -15.5
Benzene........................... -32 -5.0 -97 -14.0 -133 -16.3
CO................................ -4,661 -6.1 -13,485 -15.9 -18,812 -18.4
Formaldehyde...................... -24 -5.9 -70 -15.5 -97 -18.0
NOX............................... -11,393 -6.1 -32,965 -15.9 -45,986 -18.4
PM2.5............................. -1,256 -6.0 -3,647 -15.7 -5,083 -18.3
SOX............................... -7,137 -6.1 -20,641 -15.9 -28,797 -18.4
VOC............................... -4,342 -4.9 -13,326 -13.8 -18,273 -16.1
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note:
\a\ For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less
dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
(ii) Downstream Impacts of the Proposed Program and Alternative 4
Both the proposed program and Alternative 4 would impact the
downstream emissions of non-GHG pollutants. These pollutants include
oxides of nitrogen (NOX), oxides of sulfur (SOX),
volatile organic compounds (VOC), carbon monoxide (CO), fine
particulate matter (PM2.5), and air toxics. The agencies are
expecting reductions in downstream emissions of NOX, VOC,
SOX, CO, and air toxics. Much of these estimated net
reductions are a result of the agencies' anticipation of increased use
of auxiliary power units (APUs) in combination tractors during extended
idling; APUs emit these pollutants at a lower rate than on-road engines
during extended idle operation, with the exception of PM2.5.
Additional reductions in tailpipe emissions of NOX and CO
and refueling emissions of VOC would be achieved through improvements
in engine efficiency and reduced road load (improved aerodynamics and
tire rolling resistance), which reduces the amount of work required to
travel a given distance and increases fuel economy. For vehicle types
not affected by road load improvements, such as HD pickups and
vans,\412\ non-GHG emissions would increase very slightly due to VMT
rebound. In addition, brake wear and tire wear emissions of
PM2.5 would also increase very slightly due to VMT rebound.
The agencies estimate that downstream emissions of SOX would
be reduced, because they are roughly proportional to fuel consumption.
Alternative 4 would have directionally similar effects as the preferred
alternative.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\412\ HD pickups and vans are subject to gram per mile
(distance) emission standards, as opposed to larger heavy-duty
vehicles which are certified to a gram per brake horsepower (work)
standard.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
For vocational vehicles and tractor-trailers, agencies used MOVES
to determine non-GHG emissions impacts of the proposed rules and
Alternative 4, relative to the less dynamic baseline (Alternative 1a).
The improvements in engine efficiency and road load, the increased use
of APUs, and VMT rebound were included in the MOVES analysis. For this
analysis, Method B also used the MOVES model for HD pickups and vans.
(Note that for the comparable analysis as described in Section VIII. A.
(1), Method A used DOT's CAFE model). Further information about the
modeling using DOT's CAFE and MOVES model is available in Section VII
and Chapter 5 of the draft RIA.
The downstream criteria pollutant and air toxics impacts of the
Preferred Alternative and Alternative 4, relative to Alternative 1a,
are presented in Table VIII-16 and Table VIII-17, respectively.
Table VIII-16--Annual Downstream Impacts on Criteria Pollutants and Air Toxics From Heavy-Duty Sector in
Calendar Years 2025, 2035 and 2050--Preferred Alternative vs. Alt 1a Using Analysis Method B \a\
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CY2025 CY2035 CY2050
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pollutant US short US short US short
tons % Reduction tons % Reduction tons % Reduction
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1,3-Butadiene..................... -8 -2.6 -22 -15.1 -31 -19.6
Acetaldehyde...................... -670 -10.3 -1,884 -31.0 -2,671 -36.5
Acrolein.......................... -97 -9.9 -272 -31.6 -385 -37.3
Benzene........................... -125 -5.9 -353 -21.0 -501 -25.7
CO................................ -25,824 -1.7 -72,960 -6.0 -103,887 -7.6
Formaldehyde...................... -2,102 -11.5 -5,911 -32.1 -8,379 -37.5
NOX............................... -93,220 -7.5 -267,125 -29.1 -380,721 -35.2
PM2.5 \b\......................... 634 1.6 1,631 7.6 2,257 9.1
SOX............................... -254 -4.8 -876 -15.0 -1,264 -18.1
VOC............................... -13,440 -6.4 -40,148 -21.7 -57,308 -26.1
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Notes:
\a\ For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less
dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
\b\ Positive number means emissions would increase from reference to control case. PM2.5 from tire wear and
brake wear are included.
[[Page 40417]]
Table VIII-17--Annual Downstream Impacts on Criteria Pollutants and Air Toxics From Heavy-Duty Sector in
Calendar Years 2025, 2035 and 2050--Alternative 4 vs. Alt 1aUsing Analysis Method B \a\
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CY2025 CY2035 CY2050
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pollutant US short US short US short
tons % Reduction tons % Reduction tons % Reduction
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1,3-Butadiene..................... -8 -2.6 -22 -15.1 -31 -19.6
Acetaldehyde...................... -670 -10.3 -1,884 -31.0 -2,671 -36.5
Acrolein.......................... -97 -9.9 -272 -31.6 -385 -37.3
Benzene........................... -126 -5.9 -354 -21.0 -501 -25.7
CO................................ -25,919 -1.7 -73,041 -6.0 -103,891 -7.6
Formaldehyde...................... -2,101 -11.5 -5,910 -32.1 -8,378 -37.5
NOX............................... -94,787 -7.6 -268,373 -29.2 -380,810 -35.2
PM2.5 \b\......................... 610 1.5 1,611 7.5 2,256 9.1
SOX............................... -313 -5.9 -909 -15.6 -1,267 -18.1
VOC............................... -14,310 -6.8 -40,640 -22.0 -57,348 -26.1
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Notes:
\a\ For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less
dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
\b\ Positive number means emissions would increase from reference to control case. PM2.5 from tire wear and
brake wear are included.
As shown in Table VIII-16, a net increase in downstream
PM2.5 emissions is expected. Although the improvements in
engine efficiency and road load are expected to reduce tailpipe
emissions of PM2.5, the projected increased use \413\ of
APUs would lead to higher PM2.5 emissions that more than
offset the reductions from the tailpipe, since engines powering APUs
are currently required to meet less stringent PM standards than on-road
engines. Therefore, EPA conducted an evaluation of a program that would
reduce the unintended consequence of increase in PM2.5
emissions from increased APU use by fitting the APU with a diesel
particulate filter or having the APU exhaust plumbed into the vehicle's
exhaust system upstream of the particulate matter aftertreatment
device. Such program requiring additional PM2.5 controls on
APU could significantly reduce PM2.5 emissions, as shown in
Table VIII-18 below. For additional details, see Section III.C.3 of the
preamble.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\413\ The projected use of APU during extended idling is
presented in Table VII-3 of the preamble.
Table VIII-18--Projected Impact on PM2.5 Emissions of Further PM2.5 Control on APUs--Preferred Alternative vs.
Alt 1a Using Analysis Method B (US Short Tons) \a\
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Proposed
program Proposed
inventory program Net impact of
CY without inventory with further PM2.5
further PM2.5 further PM2.5 control on
control on control on APUs
APUs APUs
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2035............................................................ 23,083 19,999 -3,084
2050............................................................ 26,932 22,588 -4,344
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note:
\a\ For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less
dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
It is worth noting that the emission reductions shown in Table
VIII-16 are not incremental to the emissions reductions projected in
the Phase 1 rulemaking. This is because, as described in Sections
III.D.2.a of the preamble, the agencies have revised their assumptions
about the adoption rate of APUs. This proposal assumes that without the
proposed Phase 2 program (i.e., in the Phase 2 reference case), the APU
adoption rate will be 30 percent for model years 2010 and later, which
is the value used in the Phase 1 reference case. EPA conducted an
analysis to estimate the combined emissions impacts of the Phase 1 and
the proposed Phase 2 programs for NOX, VOC, SOX
and PM2.5 in calendar year 2050 using MOVES2014. The results
are shown in Table VIII-19. For NOX and PM2.5
only, we estimated the combined Phase 1 and Phase 2 downstream and
upstream emissions impacts for calendar year 2025, and project that the
two rules combined would reduce NOX by up to 120,000 tons
and PM2.5 by up to 2,000 tons in that year. For additional
details, see Chapter 5 of the draft RIA.
[[Page 40418]]
Table VIII-19--Combined Phase 1 and Phase 2 Annual Downstream Impacts on Criteria Pollutants From Heavy-Duty
Sector in Calendar Year 2050--Preferred Alternative vs. Alt 1a Using Analysis Method B
[US short tons] \a\
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CY NOX VOC SOX PM2.5b
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2050........................................ -403,915 -69,415 -2,111 1,890
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Notes:
\a\ For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less
dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
\b\ Positive number reflects an increase in emissions.
(iii) Total Impacts of the Proposed Program and Alternative 4
As shown in Table VIII-20 and Table VIII-21, agencies estimate that
both the proposed program and Alternative 4 would result in overall net
reductions of NOX, VOC, SOX, CO,
PM2.5, and air toxics emissions. The downstream increase in
PM2.5 due to APU use is expected to be more than offset by
reductions in PM2.5 from upstream.\414\ The results are
shown both in changes in absolute tons and in percent reductions from
the less dynamic reference to the alternatives for the heavy-duty
sector. By 2050, the total impacts of the proposed program and
Alternative 4 on criteria pollutants and air toxics are
indistinguishable.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\414\ Although net reduction in PM2.5 is expected at
the national level, it is unlikely that the geographic location of
increases in downstream PM2.5 emissions will coincide
with the location of decreases in upstream PM2.5
emissions. For further details, see Section VIII.D of this preamble
and in Chapter 8 of the draft RIA.
Table VIII-20--Annual Total Impacts (Upstream and Downstream) of Criteria Pollutants and Air Toxics From Heavy-
Duty Sector in Calendar Years 2025, 2035 and 2050--Preferred Alternative vs. Alt 1a Using Analysis Method B \a\
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CY2025 CY2035 CY2050
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pollutant US short US short US short
% Reduction tons % Reduction tons % Reduction tons
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1,3-Butadiene..................... -9 -2.7 -25 -15.1 -36 -19.4
Acetaldehyde...................... -674 -10.1 -1,902 -30.5 -2,697 -36.0
Acrolein.......................... -97 -9.8 -274 -31.3 -388 -36.9
Benzene........................... -149 -5.4 -445 -18.8 -633 -22.9
CO................................ -29,622 -1.9 -85,961 -6.6 -122,659 -8.4
Formaldehyde...................... -2,121 -11.4 -5,978 -31.7 -8,475 -37.0
NOX............................... -102,502 -7.2 -298,907 -26.6 -426,610 -32.1
PM2.5............................. -386 -0.6 -1,883 -4.2 -2,815 -5.4
SOX............................... -6,070 -4.9 -20,777 -15.3 -30,000 -18.4
VOC............................... -16,724 -5.6 -52,872 -18.8 -75,521 -22.7
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note:
\a\ For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less
dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
Table VIII-21--Annual Total Impacts (Upstream and Downstream) of Criteria Pollutants and Air Toxics From Heavy-Duty Sector in Calendar Years 2025, 2035
and 2050--Alternative 4 vs. Alt 1a Using Analysis Method B \a\
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CY2025 CY2035 CY2050
Pollutant -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
US short tons % Reduction US short tons % Reduction US short tons % Reduction
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1,3-Butadiene........................................... -9 -2.8 -26 -15.2 -36 -19.4
Acetaldehyde............................................ -676 -10.1 -1,903 -30.6 -2,697 -36.0
Acrolein................................................ -97 -9.8 -274 -31.3 -388 -36.9
Benzene................................................. -157 -5.7 -450 -18.9 -634 -22.9
CO...................................................... -30,580 -1.9 -86,526 -6.6 -122,703 -8.4
Formaldehyde............................................ -2,125 -11.4 -5,980 -31.7 -8,476 -37.0
NOX..................................................... -106,180 -7.4 -301,339 -26.8 -426,796 -32.1
PM2.5................................................... -646 -1.1 -2,036 -4.6 -2,827 -5.4
SOX..................................................... -7,450 -6.1 -21,550 -15.9 -30,064 -18.4
VOC..................................................... -18,652 -6.2 -53,966 -19.2 -75,621 -22.7
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note:
\a\ For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic
baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
[[Page 40419]]
(b) Model Year Lifetime Analysis
In addition to the annual non-GHG emissions reductions expected
from the proposed rules and Alternative 4, the combined (downstream and
upstream) non-GHG impacts for the lifetime of the impacted vehicles
were estimated. Table VIII-22 shows the fleet-wide reductions of
NOX, PM2.5 and SOX from the preferred
alternative and Alternative 4, relative to Alternative 1a, through the
lifetime \415\ of heavy-duty vehicles. For the lifetime non-GHG
reductions by vehicle categories, see Chapter 5 of the draft RIA.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\415\ A lifetime of 30 years is assumed in MOVES.
Table VIII-22--Lifetime Non-GHG Reductions Using Analysis Method B--
Summary for Model Years 2018-2029
[US short tons] \a\
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Alternative 3 Alternative 4
(proposed) ------------------
No-action alternative (baseline) -------------------
1a (Less 1a (Less
dynamic) dynamic)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
NOX............................... 2,399,990 2,459,497
Downstream.................... 2,139,331 2,167,512
Upstream...................... 260,659 291,986
PM2.5............................. 15,206 19,151
Downstream \b\................ -13,528 -13,089
Upstream...................... 28,733 32,240
SOX............................... 169,436 189,904
Downstream.................... 6,158 7,035
Upstream...................... 163,278 182,869
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Notes:
\a\ For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section
I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more
dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
\b\ Negative number means emissions would increase from reference to
control case. PM2.5 from tire wear and brake wear are included.
B. Health Effects of Non-GHG Pollutants
In this section, we discuss health effects associated with exposure
to some of the criteria and air toxic pollutants impacted by the
proposed and alternative heavy-duty vehicle standards.
(1) Particulate Matter
(a) Background
Particulate matter is a highly complex mixture of solid particles
and liquid droplets distributed among numerous atmospheric gases which
interact with solid and liquid phases. Particles range in size from
those smaller than 1 nanometer (10-9 meter) to over 100
micrometer ([micro]m, or 10-6 meter) in diameter (for
reference, a typical strand of human hair is 70 [micro]m in diameter
and a grain of salt is about 100 [micro]m). Atmospheric particles can
be grouped into several classes according to their aerodynamic and
physical sizes. Generally, the three broad classes of particles
considered by EPA include ultrafine particles (UFP, aerodynamic
diameter <0.1 [micro]m), ``fine'' particles (PM2.5;
particles with a nominal mean aerodynamic diameter less than or equal
to 2.5 [micro]m), and ``thoracic'' particles (PM10;
particles with a nominal mean aerodynamic diameter less than or equal
to 10 [micro]m).\416\ Particles that fall within the size range between
PM2.5 and PM10, are referred to as ``thoracic
coarse particles'' (PM10-2.5, particles with a nominal mean
aerodynamic diameter less than or equal to 10 [micro]m and greater than
2.5 [micro]m). EPA currently has standards that regulate
PM2.5 and PM10.\417\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\416\ U.S. EPA. (2009). Integrated Science Assessment for
Particulate Matter (Final Report). U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency, Washington, DC, EPA/600/R-08/139F. Figure 3-1.
\417\ Regulatory definitions of PM size fractions, and
information on reference and equivalent methods for measuring PM in
ambient air, are provided in 40 CFR parts 50, 53, and 58. With
regard to national ambient air quality standards (NAAQS) which
provide protection against health and welfare effects, the 24-hour
PM10 standard provides protection against effects
associated with short-term exposure to thoracic coarse particles
(i.e., PM10-2.5).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Particles span many sizes and shapes and may consist of hundreds of
different chemicals. Particles are emitted directly from sources and
are also formed through atmospheric chemical reactions; the former are
often referred to as ``primary'' particles, and the latter as
``secondary'' particles. Particle concentration and composition varies
by time of year and location, and in addition to differences in source
emissions, is affected by several weather-related factors, such as
temperature, clouds, humidity, and wind. A further layer of complexity
comes from particles' ability to shift between solid/liquid and gaseous
phases, which is influenced by concentration and meteorology,
especially temperature.
Fine particles are produced primarily by combustion processes and
by transformations of gaseous emissions (e.g., sulfur oxides
(SOX), oxides of nitrogen, and volatile organic compounds
(VOC)) in the atmosphere. The chemical and physical properties of
PM2.5 may vary greatly with time, region, meteorology, and
source category. Thus, PM2.5 may include a complex mixture
of different components including sulfates, nitrates, organic
compounds, elemental carbon and metal compounds. These particles can
remain in the atmosphere for days to weeks and travel hundreds to
thousands of kilometers.
(b) Health Effects of PM
Scientific studies show ambient PM is associated with a broad range
of health effects. These health effects are discussed in detail in the
December 2009 Integrated Science Assessment for Particulate Matter (PM
ISA).\418\ The PM ISA summarizes health effects evidence associated
with both short- and long-term exposures to PM2.5,
PM10-2.5, and ultrafine particles. The PM ISA concludes that
human exposures to ambient PM2.5 concentrations are
associated with a number of adverse health effects and characterizes
the weight of evidence for these health
[[Page 40420]]
outcomes.\419\ The discussion below highlights the PM ISA's conclusions
pertaining to health effects associated with both short- and long-term
PM exposures. Further discussion of health effects associated with
PM2.5 can also be found in the rulemaking documents for the
most recent review of the PM NAAQS completed in 2012.420 421
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\418\ U.S. EPA. (2009). Integrated Science Assessment for
Particulate Matter (Final Report). U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency, Washington, DC, EPA/600/R-08/139F.
\419\ The causal framework draws upon the assessment and
integration of evidence from across epidemiological, controlled
human exposure, and toxicological studies, and the related
uncertainties that ultimately influence our understanding of the
evidence. This framework employs a five-level hierarchy that
classifies the overall weight of evidence and causality using the
following categorizations: causal relationship, likely to be causal
relationship, suggestive of a causal relationship, inadequate to
infer a causal relationship, and not likely to be a causal
relationship (U.S. EPA. (2009). Integrated Science Assessment for
Particulate Matter (Final Report). U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency, Washington, DC, EPA/600/R-08/139F, Table 1-3).
\420\ 78 FR 3103-3104, January 15, 2013.
\421\ 77 FR 38906-38911, June 29, 2012.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
EPA has concluded that a causal relationship exists between both
long- and short-term exposures to PM2.5 and premature
mortality and cardiovascular effects and a likely causal relationship
exists between long- and short-term PM2.5 exposures and
respiratory effects. Further, there is evidence suggestive of a causal
relationship between long-term PM2.5 exposures and other
health effects, including developmental and reproductive effects (e.g.,
low birth weight, infant mortality) and carcinogenic, mutagenic, and
genotoxic effects (e.g., lung cancer mortality).\422\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\422\ These causal inferences are based not only on the more
expansive epidemiological evidence available in this review but also
reflect consideration of important progress that has been made to
advance our understanding of a number of potential biologic modes of
action or pathways for PM-related cardiovascular and respiratory
effects (U.S. EPA. (2009). Integrated Science Assessment for
Particulate Matter (Final Report). U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency, Washington, DC, EPA/600/R-08/139F, Chapter 5).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
As summarized in the Final PM NAAQS rule, and discussed extensively
in the 2009 p.m. ISA, the available scientific evidence significantly
strengthens the link between long- and short-term exposure to
PM2.5 and premature mortality, while providing indications
that the magnitude of the PM2.5- mortality association with
long-term exposures may be larger than previously estimated.
423 424 The strongest evidence comes from recent studies
investigating long-term exposure to PM2.5 and
cardiovascular-related mortality. The evidence supporting a causal
relationship between long-term PM2.5 exposure and mortality
also includes consideration of new studies that demonstrated an
improvement in community health following reductions in ambient fine
particles.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\423\ 78 FR 3103-3104, January 15, 2013.
\424\ U.S. EPA. (2009). Integrated Science Assessment for
Particulate Matter (Final Report). U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency, Washington, DC, EPA/600/R-08/139F, Chapter 6 (Section 6.5)
and Chapter 7 (Section 7.6).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Several studies evaluated in the 2009 p.m. ISA have examined the
association between cardiovascular effects and long-term
PM2.5 exposures in multi-city epidemiological studies
conducted in the U.S. and Europe. These studies have provided new
evidence linking long-term exposure to PM2.5 with an array
of cardiovascular effects such as heart attacks, congestive heart
failure, stroke, and mortality. This evidence is coherent with studies
of effects associated with short-term exposure to PM2.5 that
have observed associations with a continuum of effects ranging from
subtle changes in indicators of cardiovascular health to serious
clinical events, such as increased hospitalizations and emergency
department visits due to cardiovascular disease and cardiovascular
mortality.\425\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\425\ U.S. EPA. (2009). Integrated Science Assessment for
Particulate Matter (Final Report). U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency, Washington, DC, EPA/600/R-08/139F, Chapter 2 (Section 2.3.1
and 2.3.2) and Chapter 6.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
As detailed in the 2009 p.m. ISA, extended analyses of seminal
epidemiological studies, as well as more recent epidemiological studies
conducted in the U.S. and abroad, provide strong evidence of
respiratory-related morbidity effects associated with long-term
PM2.5 exposure. The strongest evidence for respiratory-
related effects is from studies that evaluated decrements in lung
function growth (in children), increased respiratory symptoms, and
asthma development. The strongest evidence from short-term
PM2.5 exposure studies has been observed for increased
respiratory-related emergency department visits and hospital admissions
for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and respiratory
infections.\426\
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\426\ U.S. EPA. (2009). Integrated Science Assessment for
Particulate Matter (Final Report). U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency, Washington, DC, EPA/600/R-08/139F, Chapter 2 (Section 2.3.1
and 2.3.2) and Chapter 6.
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The body of scientific evidence detailed in the 2009 p.m. ISA is
still limited with respect to associations between long-term
PM2.5 exposures and developmental and reproductive effects
as well as cancer, mutagenic, and genotoxic effects. The strongest
evidence for an association between PM2.5 and developmental
and reproductive effects comes from epidemiological studies of low
birth weight and infant mortality, especially due to respiratory causes
during the post-neonatal period (i.e., 1 month to 12 months of
age).\427\ With regard to cancer effects, ``[m]ultiple epidemiologic
studies have shown a consistent positive association between
PM2.5 and lung cancer mortality, but studies have generally
not reported associations between PM2.5 and lung cancer
incidence.'' \428\
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\427\ U.S. EPA. (2009). Integrated Science Assessment for
Particulate Matter (Final Report). U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency, Washington, DC, EPA/600/R-08/139F, Chapter 2 (Section 2.3.1
and 2.3.2) and Chapter 7.
\428\ U.S. EPA. (2009). Integrated Science Assessment for
Particulate Matter (Final Report). U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency, Washington, DC, EPA/600/R-08/139F. pg 2-13
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Specific groups within the general population are at increased risk
for experiencing adverse health effects related to PM
exposures.429 430 431 432 The evidence detailed in the 2009
p.m. ISA expands our understanding of previously identified at-risk
populations and lifestages (i.e., children, older adults, and
individuals with pre-existing heart and lung disease) and supports the
identification of additional at-risk populations (e.g., persons with
lower socioeconomic status, genetic differences). Additionally, there
is emerging, though still limited, evidence for additional potentially
at-risk populations and lifestages, such as those with diabetes, people
who are obese, pregnant women, and the developing fetus.\433\
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\429\ U.S. EPA. (2009). Integrated Science Assessment for
Particulate Matter (Final Report). U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency, Washington, DC, EPA/600/R-08/139F. Chapter 8 and Chapter 2.
\430\ 77 FR 38890, June 29, 2012.
\431\ 78 FR 3104, January 15, 2013.
\432\ U.S. EPA. (2011). Policy Assessment for the Review of the
PM NAAQS. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC, EPA/
452/R-11-003. Section 2.2.1.
\433\ U.S. EPA. (2009). Integrated Science Assessment for
Particulate Matter (Final Report). U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency, Washington, DC, EPA/600/R-08/139F. Chapter 8 and Chapter 2
(Section 2.4.1).
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For PM10-2.5, the 2009 p.m. ISA concluded that available
evidence was suggestive of a causal relationship between short-term
exposures to PM10-2.5 and cardiovascular effects (e.g.,
hospital admissions and ED visits, changes in cardiovascular function),
respiratory effects (e.g., ED visits and hospital admissions, increase
in markers of pulmonary inflammation), and premature mortality. Data
were inadequate to draw conclusions regarding the relationships between
long-term exposure to PM10-2.5 and various health
effects.434 435 436
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\434\ U.S. EPA. (2009). Integrated Science Assessment for
Particulate Matter (Final Report). U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency, Washington, DC, EPA/600/R-08/139F. Section 2.3.4 and Table
2-6.
\435\ 78 FR 3167-3168, January 15, 2013.
\436\ 77 FR 38947-38951, June 29, 2012.
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[[Page 40421]]
For ultrafine particles, the 2009 p.m. ISA concluded that the
evidence was suggestive of a causal relationship between short-term
exposures and cardiovascular effects, including changes in heart rhythm
and vasomotor function (the ability of blood vessels to expand and
contract). It also concluded that there was evidence suggestive of a
causal relationship between short-term exposure to ultrafine particles
and respiratory effects, including lung function and pulmonary
inflammation, with limited and inconsistent evidence for increases in
ED visits and hospital admissions. Data were inadequate to draw
conclusions regarding the relationship between short-term exposure to
ultrafine particle and additional health effects including premature
mortality as well as long-term exposure to ultrafine particles and all
health outcomes evaluated.437 438
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\437\ U.S. EPA. (2009). Integrated Science Assessment for
Particulate Matter (Final Report). U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency, Washington, DC, EPA/600/R-08/139F. Section 2.3.5 and Table
2-6.
\438\ 78 FR 3121, January 15, 2013.
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(2) Ozone
(a) Background
Ground-level ozone pollution is typically formed through reactions
involving VOC and NOX in the lower atmosphere in the
presence of sunlight. These pollutants, often referred to as ozone
precursors, are emitted by many types of pollution sources, such as
highway and nonroad motor vehicles and engines, power plants, chemical
plants, refineries, makers of consumer and commercial products,
industrial facilities, and smaller area sources.
The science of ozone formation, transport, and accumulation is
complex. Ground-level ozone is produced and destroyed in a cyclical set
of chemical reactions, many of which are sensitive to temperature and
sunlight. When ambient temperatures and sunlight levels remain high for
several days and the air is relatively stagnant, ozone and its
precursors can build up and result in more ozone than typically occurs
on a single high-temperature day. Ozone and its precursors can be
transported hundreds of miles downwind from precursor emissions,
resulting in elevated ozone levels even in areas with low local VOC or
NOX emissions.
(b) Health Effects of Ozone
This section provides a summary of the health effects associated
with exposure to ambient concentrations of ozone.\439\ The information
in this section is based on the information and conclusions in the
February 2013 Integrated Science Assessment for Ozone (Ozone ISA).\440\
The Ozone ISA concludes that human exposures to ambient concentrations
of ozone are associated with a number of adverse health effects and
characterizes the weight of evidence for these health effects.\441\ The
discussion below highlights the Ozone ISA's conclusions pertaining to
health effects associated with both short-term and long-term periods of
exposure to ozone.
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\439\ Human exposure to ozone varies over time due to changes in
ambient ozone concentration and because people move between
locations which have notable different ozone concentrations. Also,
the amount of ozone delivered to the lung is not only influenced by
the ambient concentrations but also by the individuals breathing
route and rate.
\440\ U.S. EPA. Integrated Science Assessment of Ozone and
Related Photochemical Oxidants (Final Report). U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency, Washington, DC, EPA/600/R-10/076F, 2013. The ISA
is available at https://cfpub.epa.gov/ncea/isa/recordisplay.cfm?deid=247492#Download.
\441\ The ISA evaluates evidence and draws conclusions on the
causal relationship between relevant pollutant exposures and health
effects, assigning one of five ``weight of evidence''
determinations: causal relationship, likely to be a causal
relationship, suggestive of a causal relationship, inadequate to
infer a causal relationship, and not likely to be a causal
relationship. For more information on these levels of evidence,
please refer to Table II in the Preamble of the ISA.
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For short-term exposure to ozone, the Ozone ISA concludes that
respiratory effects, including lung function decrements, pulmonary
inflammation, exacerbation of asthma, respiratory-related hospital
admissions, and mortality, are causally associated with ozone exposure.
It also concludes that cardiovascular effects, including decreased
cardiac function and increased vascular disease, and total mortality
are likely to be causally associated with short-term exposure to ozone
and that evidence is suggestive of a causal relationship between
central nervous system effects and short-term exposure to ozone.
For long-term exposure to ozone, the Ozone ISA concludes that
respiratory effects, including new onset asthma, pulmonary inflammation
and injury, are likely to be causally related with ozone exposure. The
Ozone ISA characterizes the evidence as suggestive of a causal
relationship for associations between long-term ozone exposure and
cardiovascular effects, reproductive and developmental effects, central
nervous system effects and total mortality. The evidence is inadequate
to infer a causal relationship between chronic ozone exposure and
increased risk of lung cancer.
Finally, interindividual variation in human responses to ozone
exposure can result in some groups being at increased risk for
detrimental effects in response to exposure. The Ozone ISA identified
several groups that are at increased risk for ozone-related health
effects. These groups are people with asthma, children and older
adults, individuals with reduced intake of certain nutrients (i.e.,
Vitamins C and E), outdoor workers, and individuals having certain
genetic variants related to oxidative metabolism or inflammation. Ozone
exposure during childhood can have lasting effects through adulthood.
Such effects include altered function of the respiratory and immune
systems. Children absorb higher doses (normalized to lung surface area)
of ambient ozone, compared to adults, due to their increased time spent
outdoors, higher ventilation rates relative to body size, and a
tendency to breathe a greater fraction of air through the mouth.
Children also have a higher asthma prevalence compared to adults.
Additional children's vulnerability and susceptibility factors are
listed in Section XIV.
(3) Nitrogen Oxides
(a) Background
Nitrogen dioxide (NO2) is a member of the NOX
family of gases. Most NO2 is formed in the air through the
oxidation of nitric oxide (NO) emitted when fuel is burned at a high
temperature. NO2 and its gas phase oxidation products can
dissolve in water droplets and further oxidize to form nitric acid
which reacts with ammonia to form nitrates, which are important
components of ambient PM. The health effects of ambient PM are
discussed in Section VIII.B.1.b of this preamble. NOX and
VOC are the two major precursors of ozone. The health effects of ozone
are covered in Section VIII.B.2.b.
(b) Health Effects of Nitrogen Oxides
The most recent review of the health effects of oxides of nitrogen
completed by EPA can be found in the 2008 Integrated Science Assessment
for Oxides of Nitrogen--Health Criteria (Oxides of Nitrogen ISA).\442\
EPA concluded that the findings of epidemiological, controlled human
exposure, and animal toxicological
[[Page 40422]]
studies provided evidence that was sufficient to infer a likely causal
relationship between respiratory effects and short-term NO2
exposure. The 2008 ISA for Oxides of Nitrogen concluded that the
strongest evidence for such a relationship comes from epidemiological
studies of respiratory effects including increased respiratory
symptoms, emergency department visits, and hospital admissions. Based
on both short- and long-term exposure studies, the 2008 ISA for Oxides
of Nitrogen concluded that individuals with preexisting pulmonary
conditions (e.g., asthma or COPD), children, and older adults are
potentially at greater risk of NO2-related respiratory
effects. Based on findings from controlled human exposure studies, the
2008 ISA for Oxides of Nitrogen also drew two broad conclusions
regarding airway responsiveness following NO2 exposure.
First, the ISA concluded that NO2 exposure may enhance the
sensitivity to allergen-induced decrements in lung function and
increase the allergen-induced airway inflammatory response following
30-minute exposures of asthmatic adults to NO2
concentrations as low as 260 ppb.\443\ Second, exposure to
NO2 was found to enhance the inherent responsiveness of the
airway to subsequent nonspecific challenges in controlled human
exposure studies of healthy and asthmatic adults. Statistically
significant increases in nonspecific airway responsiveness were
reported for asthmatic adults following 30-minute exposures to 200-300
ppb NO2 and following 1-hour exposures to 100 ppb
NO2.\444\ Enhanced airway responsiveness could have
important clinical implications for asthmatics since transient
increases in airway responsiveness following NO2 exposure
have the potential to increase symptoms and worsen asthma control.
Together, the epidemiological and experimental data sets formed a
plausible, consistent, and coherent description of a relationship
between NO2 exposures and an array of adverse health effects
that range from the onset of respiratory symptoms to hospital
admissions and emergency department visits for respiratory causes,
especially asthma.\445\
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\442\ U.S. EPA (2008). Integrated Science Assessment for Oxides
of Nitrogen--Health Criteria (Final Report). EPA/600/R-08/071.
Washington, DC: U.S. EPA.
\443\ U.S. EPA (2008). Integrated Science Assessment for Oxides
of Nitrogen--Health Criteria (Final Report). EPA/600/R-08/071.
Washington, DC: U.S. EPA, Section 3.1.3.1.
\444\ U.S. EPA (2008). Integrated Science Assessment for Oxides
of Nitrogen--Health Criteria (Final Report). EPA/600/R-08/071.
Washington, DC: U.S.EPA, Section 3.1.3.2.
\445\ U.S. EPA (2008). Integrated Science Assessment for Oxides
of Nitrogen--Health Criteria (Final Report). EPA/600/R-08/071.
Washington, DC: U.S. EPA, Section 3.1.7.
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In evaluating a broader range of health effects, the 2008 ISA for
Oxides of Nitrogen concluded evidence was ``suggestive but not
sufficient to infer a causal relationship'' between short-term
NO2 exposure and premature mortality and between long-term
NO2 exposure and respiratory effects. The latter was based
largely on associations observed between long-term NO2
exposure and decreases in lung function growth in children.
Furthermore, the 2008 ISA for Oxides of Nitrogen concluded that
evidence was ``inadequate to infer the presence or absence of a causal
relationship'' between short-term NO2 exposure and
cardiovascular effects as well as between long-term NO2
exposure and cardiovascular effects, reproductive and developmental
effects, premature mortality, and cancer.\446\ The conclusions for
these health effect categories were informed by uncertainties in the
evidence base such as the independent effects of NO2
exposure within the broader mixture of traffic-related pollutants,
limited evidence from experimental studies, and/or an overall limited
literature base.
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\446\ U.S. EPA (2008). Integrated Science Assessment for Oxides
of Nitrogen--Health Criteria (Final Report). EPA/600/R-08/071.
Washington, DC: U.S. EPA.
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(4) Sulfur Oxides
(a) Background
Sulfur dioxide (SO2), a member of the sulfur oxide
(SOX) family of gases, is formed from burning fuels
containing sulfur (e.g., coal or oil derived), extracting gasoline from
oil, or extracting metals from ore. SO2 and its gas phase
oxidation products can dissolve in water droplets and further oxidize
to form sulfuric acid which reacts with ammonia to form sulfates, which
are important components of ambient PM. The health effects of ambient
PM are discussed in Section VIII.B.1.b of this preamble.
(b) Health Effects of SO2
Information on the health effects of SO2 can be found in
the 2008 Integrated Science Assessment for Sulfur Oxides--Health
Criteria (SOX ISA).\447\ Short-term peaks of SO2
have long been known to cause adverse respiratory health effects,
particularly among individuals with asthma. In addition to those with
asthma (both children and adults), potentially sensitive groups include
all children and the elderly. During periods of elevated ventilation,
asthmatics may experience symptomatic bronchoconstriction within
minutes of exposure. Following an extensive evaluation of health
evidence from epidemiologic and laboratory studies, EPA concluded that
there is a causal relationship between respiratory health effects and
short-term exposure to SO2. Separately, based on an
evaluation of the epidemiologic evidence of associations between short-
term exposure to SO2 and mortality, EPA concluded that the
overall evidence is suggestive of a causal relationship between short-
term exposure to SO2 and mortality. Additional information
on the health effects of SO2 is available in Chapter
6.1.1.4.2 of the RIA.
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\447\ U.S. EPA. (2008). Integrated Science Assessment (ISA) for
Sulfur Oxides--Health Criteria (Final Report). EPA/600/R-08/047F.
Washington, DC: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.
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(5) Carbon Monoxide
(a) Background
Carbon monoxide (CO) is a colorless, odorless gas emitted from
combustion processes. Nationally and, particularly in urban areas, the
majority of CO emissions to ambient air come from mobile sources.
(b) Health Effects of Carbon Monoxide
Information on the health effects of CO can be found in the January
2010 Integrated Science Assessment for Carbon Monoxide (CO ISA).\448\
The CO ISA concludes that ambient concentrations of CO are associated
with a number of adverse health effects.\449\ This section provides a
summary of the health effects associated with exposure to ambient
concentrations of CO.\450\
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\448\ U.S. EPA, (2010). Integrated Science Assessment for Carbon
Monoxide (Final Report). U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,
Washington, DC, EPA/600/R-09/019F, 2010. Available at https://cfpub.epa.gov/ncea/cfm/recordisplay.cfm?deid=218686.
\449\ The ISA evaluates the health evidence associated with
different health effects, assigning one of five ``weight of
evidence'' determinations: causal relationship, likely to be a
causal relationship, suggestive of a causal relationship, inadequate
to infer a causal relationship, and not likely to be a causal
relationship. For definitions of these levels of evidence, please
refer to Section 1.6 of the ISA.
\450\ Personal exposure includes contributions from many
sources, and in many different environments. Total personal exposure
to CO includes both ambient and nonambient components; and both
components may contribute to adverse health effects.
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Controlled human exposure studies of subjects with coronary artery
disease show a decrease in the time to onset of exercise-induced angina
(chest pain) and electrocardiogram changes following CO exposure. In
addition, epidemiologic studies show associations between short-term CO
exposure and
[[Page 40423]]
cardiovascular morbidity, particularly increased emergency room visits
and hospital admissions for coronary heart disease (including ischemic
heart disease, myocardial infarction, and angina). Some epidemiologic
evidence is also available for increased hospital admissions and
emergency room visits for congestive heart failure and cardiovascular
disease as a whole. The CO ISA concludes that a causal relationship is
likely to exist between short-term exposures to CO and cardiovascular
morbidity. It also concludes that available data are inadequate to
conclude that a causal relationship exists between long-term exposures
to CO and cardiovascular morbidity.
Animal studies show various neurological effects with in-utero CO
exposure. Controlled human exposure studies report central nervous
system and behavioral effects following low-level CO exposures,
although the findings have not been consistent across all studies. The
CO ISA concludes the evidence is suggestive of a causal relationship
with both short- and long-term exposure to CO and central nervous
system effects.
A number of studies cited in the CO ISA have evaluated the role of
CO exposure in birth outcomes such as preterm birth or cardiac birth
defects. The epidemiologic studies provide limited evidence of a CO-
induced effect on preterm births and birth defects, with weak evidence
for a decrease in birth weight. Animal toxicological studies have found
perinatal CO exposure to affect birth weight, as well as other
developmental outcomes. The CO ISA concludes the evidence is suggestive
of a causal relationship between long-term exposures to CO and
developmental effects and birth outcomes.
Epidemiologic studies provide evidence of associations between
ambient CO concentrations and respiratory morbidity such as changes in
pulmonary function, respiratory symptoms, and hospital admissions. A
limited number of epidemiologic studies considered copollutants such as
ozone, SO2, and PM in two-pollutant models and found that CO
risk estimates were generally robust, although this limited evidence
makes it difficult to disentangle effects attributed to CO itself from
those of the larger complex air pollution mixture. Controlled human
exposure studies have not extensively evaluated the effect of CO on
respiratory morbidity. Animal studies at levels of 50-100 ppm CO show
preliminary evidence of altered pulmonary vascular remodeling and
oxidative injury. The CO ISA concludes that the evidence is suggestive
of a causal relationship between short-term CO exposure and respiratory
morbidity, and inadequate to conclude that a causal relationship exists
between long-term exposure and respiratory morbidity.
Finally, the CO ISA concludes that the epidemiologic evidence is
suggestive of a causal relationship between short-term concentrations
of CO and mortality. Epidemiologic studies provide evidence of an
association between short-term exposure to CO and mortality, but
limited evidence is available to evaluate cause-specific mortality
outcomes associated with CO exposure. In addition, the attenuation of
CO risk estimates which was often observed in copollutant models
contributes to the uncertainty as to whether CO is acting alone or as
an indicator for other combustion-related pollutants. The CO ISA also
concludes that there is not likely to be a causal relationship between
relevant long-term exposures to CO and mortality.
(6) Diesel Exhaust
(a) Background
Diesel exhaust consists of a complex mixture composed of carbon
dioxide, oxygen, nitrogen, water vapor, carbon monoxide, nitrogen
compounds, sulfur compounds and numerous low-molecular-weight
hydrocarbons. A number of these gaseous hydrocarbon components are
individually known to be toxic, including aldehydes, benzene and 1,3-
butadiene. The diesel particulate matter present in diesel exhaust
consists mostly of fine particles (< 2.5 [micro]m), of which a
significant fraction is ultrafine particles (< 0.1 [micro]m). These
particles have a large surface area which makes them an excellent
medium for adsorbing organics and their small size makes them highly
respirable. Many of the organic compounds present in the gases and on
the particles, such as polycyclic organic matter, are individually
known to have mutagenic and carcinogenic properties.
Diesel exhaust varies significantly in chemical composition and
particle sizes between different engine types (heavy-duty, light-duty),
engine operating conditions (idle, accelerate, decelerate), and fuel
formulations (high/low sulfur fuel). Also, there are emissions
differences between on-road and nonroad engines because the nonroad
engines are generally of older technology. After being emitted in the
engine exhaust, diesel exhaust undergoes dilution as well as chemical
and physical changes in the atmosphere. The lifetime for some of the
compounds present in diesel exhaust ranges from hours to days.
(b) Health Effects of Diesel Exhaust
In EPA's 2002 Diesel Health Assessment Document (Diesel HAD),
exposure to diesel exhaust was classified as likely to be carcinogenic
to humans by inhalation from environmental exposures, in accordance
with the revised draft 1996/1999 EPA cancer
guidelines.451 452 A number of other agencies (National
Institute for Occupational Safety and Health, the International Agency
for Research on Cancer, the World Health Organization, California EPA,
and the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services) had made similar
hazard classifications prior to 2002. EPA also concluded in the 2002
Diesel HAD that it was not possible to calculate a cancer unit risk for
diesel exhaust due to limitations in the exposure data for the
occupational groups or the absence of a dose-response relationship.
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\451\ U.S. EPA. (1999). Guidelines for Carcinogen Risk
Assessment. Review Draft. NCEA-F-0644, July. Washington, DC: U.S.
EPA. Retrieved on March 19, 2009 from https://cfpub.epa.gov/ncea/cfm/recordisplay.cfm?deid=54932.
\452\ U.S. EPA (2002). Health Assessment Document for Diesel
Engine Exhaust. EPA/600/8-90/057F Office of Research and
Development, Washington DC. Retrieved on March 17, 2009 from https://cfpub.epa.gov/ncea/cfm/recordisplay.cfm?deid=29060. pp. 1-1 1-2.
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In the absence of a cancer unit risk, the Diesel HAD sought to
provide additional insight into the significance of the diesel exhaust
cancer hazard by estimating possible ranges of risk that might be
present in the population. An exploratory analysis was used to
characterize a range of possible lung cancer risk. The outcome was that
environmental risks of cancer from long-term diesel exhaust exposures
could plausibly range from as low as 10-5 to as high as
10-3. Because of uncertainties, the analysis acknowledged
that the risks could be lower than 10-5, and a zero risk
from diesel exhaust exposure could not be ruled out.
Non-cancer health effects of acute and chronic exposure to diesel
exhaust emissions are also of concern to EPA. EPA derived a diesel
exhaust reference concentration (RfC) from consideration of four well-
conducted chronic rat inhalation studies showing adverse pulmonary
effects. The RfC is 5 [mu]g/m\3\ for diesel exhaust measured as diesel
particulate matter. This RfC does not consider allergenic effects such
as those associated with asthma or immunologic or the potential for
cardiac effects. There was emerging evidence in 2002, discussed in the
Diesel HAD, that
[[Page 40424]]
exposure to diesel exhaust can exacerbate these effects, but the
exposure-response data were lacking at that time to derive an RfC based
on these then emerging considerations. EPA Diesel HAD states, ``With
[diesel particulate matter] being a ubiquitous component of ambient PM,
there is an uncertainty about the adequacy of the existing [diesel
exhaust] noncancer database to identify all of the pertinent [diesel
exhaust]-caused noncancer health hazards.'' The Diesel HAD also notes
``that acute exposure to [diesel exhaust] has been associated with
irritation of the eye, nose, and throat, respiratory symptoms (cough
and phlegm), and neurophysiological symptoms such as headache,
lightheadedness, nausea, vomiting, and numbness or tingling of the
extremities.'' The Diesel HAD noted that the cancer and noncancer
hazard conclusions applied to the general use of diesel engines then on
the market and as cleaner engines replace a substantial number of
existing ones, the applicability of the conclusions would need to be
reevaluated.
It is important to note that the Diesel HAD also briefly summarizes
health effects associated with ambient PM and discusses EPA's then-
annual PM2.5 NAAQS of 15 [mu]g/m\3\. In 2012, EPA revised
the annual PM2.5 NAAQS to 12 [mu]g/m\3\. There is a large
and extensive body of human data showing a wide spectrum of adverse
health effects associated with exposure to ambient PM, of which diesel
exhaust is an important component. The PM2.5 NAAQS is
designed to provide protection from the noncancer health effects and
premature mortality attributed to exposure to PM2.5. The
contribution of diesel PM to total ambient PM varies in different
regions of the country and also, within a region, from one area to
another. The contribution can be high in near-roadway environments, for
example, or in other locations where diesel engine use is concentrated.
Since 2002, several new studies have been published which continue
to report increased lung cancer risk with occupational exposure to
diesel exhaust from older engines. Of particular note since 2011 are
three new epidemiology studies which have examined lung cancer in
occupational populations, for example, truck drivers, underground
nonmetal miners and other diesel motor related occupations. These
studies reported increased risk of lung cancer with exposure to diesel
exhaust with evidence of positive exposure-response relationships to
varying degrees.453 454 455 These newer studies (along with
others that have appeared in the scientific literature) add to the
evidence EPA evaluated in the 2002 Diesel HAD and further reinforces
the concern that diesel exhaust exposure likely poses a lung cancer
hazard. The findings from these newer studies do not necessarily apply
to newer technology diesel engines since the newer engines have large
reductions in the emission constituents compared to older technology
diesel engines.
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\453\ Garshick, Eric, Francine Laden, Jaime E. Hart, Mary E.
Davis, Ellen A. Eisen, and Thomas J. Smith. 2012. Lung cancer and
elemental carbon exposure in trucking industry workers.
Environmental Health Perspectives 120(9): 1301-1306.
\454\ Silverman, D.T., Samanic, C.M., Lubin, J.H., Blair, A.E.,
Stewart, P.A., Vermeulen, R., & Attfield, M.D. (2012). The diesel
exhaust in miners study: A nested case-control study of lung cancer
and diesel exhaust. Journal of the National Cancer Institute.
\455\ Olsson, Ann C., et al. ``Exposure to diesel motor exhaust
and lung cancer risk in a pooled analysis from case-control studies
in Europe and Canada.'' American journal of respiratory and critical
care medicine 183.7 (2011): 941-948.
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In light of the growing body of scientific literature evaluating
the health effects of exposure to diesel exhaust, in June 2012 the
World Health Organization's International Agency for Research on Cancer
(IARC), a recognized international authority on the carcinogenic
potential of chemicals and other agents, evaluated the full range of
cancer related health effects data for diesel engine exhaust. IARC
concluded that diesel exhaust should be regarded as ``carcinogenic to
humans.'' \456\ This designation was an update from its 1988 evaluation
that considered the evidence to be indicative of a ``probable human
carcinogen.''
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\456\ IARC [International Agency for Research on Cancer].
(2013). Diesel and gasoline engine exhausts and some nitroarenes.
IARC Monographs Volume 105. [Online at https://monographs.iarc.fr/ENG/Monographs/vol105/index.php].
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(7) Air Toxics
(a) Background
Heavy-duty vehicle emissions contribute to ambient levels of air
toxics known or suspected as human or animal carcinogens, or that have
noncancer health effects. The population experiences an elevated risk
of cancer and other noncancer health effects from exposure to the class
of pollutants known collectively as ``air toxics.'' \457\ These
compounds include, but are not limited to, benzene, 1,3-butadiene,
formaldehyde, acetaldehyde, acrolein, polycyclic organic matter, and
naphthalene. These compounds were identified as national or regional
risk drivers or contributors in the 2005 National-scale Air Toxics
Assessment and have significant inventory contributions from mobile
sources.\458\
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\457\ U.S. EPA. (2011) Summary of Results for the 2005 National-
Scale Assessment. www.epa.gov/ttn/atw/nata2005/05pdf/sum_results.pdf.
\458\ U.S. EPA (2011) 2005 National-Scale Air Toxics Assessment.
https://www.epa.gov/ttn/atw/nata2005.
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(b) Benzene
EPA's Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) database lists
benzene as a known human carcinogen (causing leukemia) by all routes of
exposure, and concludes that exposure is associated with additional
health effects, including genetic changes in both humans and animals
and increased proliferation of bone marrow cells in
mice.459 460 461 EPA states in its IRIS database that data
indicate a causal relationship between benzene exposure and acute
lymphocytic leukemia and suggest a relationship between benzene
exposure and chronic non-lymphocytic leukemia and chronic lymphocytic
leukemia. EPA's IRIS documentation for benzene also lists a range of
2.2 x 10-6 to 7.8 x 10-6 as the unit risk
estimate (URE) for benzene.462 463 The International Agency
for Research on Carcinogens (IARC) has determined that benzene is a
human carcinogen and the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services
(DHHS) has characterized benzene as a known human
carcinogen.464 465
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\459\ U.S. EPA. (2000). Integrated Risk Information System File
for Benzene. This material is available electronically at: https://www.epa.gov/iris/subst/0276.htm.
\460\ International Agency for Research on Cancer, IARC
monographs on the evaluation of carcinogenic risk of chemicals to
humans, Volume 29, some industrial chemicals and dyestuffs,
International Agency for Research on Cancer, World Health
Organization, Lyon, France 1982.
\461\ Irons, R.D.; Stillman, W.S.; Colagiovanni, D.B.; Henry,
V.A. (1992). Synergistic action of the benzene metabolite
hydroquinone on myelopoietic stimulating activity of granulocyte/
macrophage colony-stimulating factor in vitro, Proc. Natl. Acad.
Sci. 89:3691-3695.
\462\ A unit risk estimate is defined as the increase in the
lifetime risk of an individual who is exposed for a lifetime to 1
[mu]g/m3 benzene in air.
\463\ U.S. EPA. (2000). Integrated Risk Information System File
for Benzene. This material is available electronically at: https://www.epa.gov/iris/subst/0276.htm.
\464\ International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC).
(1987). Monographs on the evaluation of carcinogenic risk of
chemicals to humans, Volume 29, Supplement 7, Some industrial
chemicals and dyestuffs, World Health Organization, Lyon, France.
\465\ NTP. (2014). 13th Report on Carcinogens. Research Triangle
Park, NC: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Public
Health Service, National Toxicology Program.
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A number of adverse noncancer health effects including blood
disorders, such as pre leukemia and aplastic anemia, have also been
associated with long-term exposure to benzene.466 467
[[Page 40425]]
The most sensitive noncancer effect observed in humans, based on
current data, is the depression of the absolute lymphocyte count in
blood.468 469 EPA's inhalation reference concentration (RfC)
for benzene is 30 [mu]g/m\3\. The RfC is based on suppressed absolute
lymphocyte counts seen in humans under occupational exposure
conditions. In addition, recent work, including studies sponsored by
the Health Effects Institute, provides evidence that biochemical
responses are occurring at lower levels of benzene exposure than
previously known.470 471 472 473 EPA's IRIS program has not
yet evaluated these new data. EPA does not currently have an acute
reference concentration for benzene. The Agency for Toxic Substances
and Disease Registry (ATSDR) Minimal Risk Level (MRL) for acute
exposure to benzene is 29 [mu]g/m\3\ for 1-14 days
exposure.474 475
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\466\ Aksoy, M. (1989). Hematotoxicity and carcinogenicity of
benzene. Environ. Health Perspect. 82: 193-197.
\467\ Goldstein, B.D. (1988). Benzene toxicity. Occupational
medicine. State of the Art Reviews. 3: 541-554.
\468\ Rothman, N., G.L. Li, M. Dosemeci, W.E. Bechtold, G.E.
Marti, Y.Z. Wang, M. Linet, L.Q. Xi, W. Lu, M.T. Smith, N. Titenko-
Holland, L.P. Zhang, W. Blot, S.N. Yin, and R.B. Hayes. (1996).
Hematotoxicity among Chinese workers heavily exposed to benzene. Am.
J. Ind. Med. 29: 236-246.
\469\ U.S. EPA. (2002). Toxicological Review of Benzene
(Noncancer Effects). Environmental Protection Agency, Integrated
Risk Information System (IRIS), Research and Development, National
Center for Environmental Assessment, Washington DC. This material is
available electronically at https://www.epa.gov/iris/subst/0276.htm.
\470\ Qu, O.; Shore, R.; Li, G.; Jin, X.; Chen, C.L.; Cohen, B.;
Melikian, A.; Eastmond, D.; Rappaport, S.; Li, H.; Rupa, D.;
Suramaya, R.; Songnian, W.; Huifant, Y.; Meng, M.; Winnik, M.; Kwok,
E.; Li, Y.; Mu, R.; Xu, B.; Zhang, X.; Li, K. (2003). HEI Report
115, Validation & Evaluation of Biomarkers in Workers Exposed to
Benzene in China.
\471\ Qu, Q., R. Shore, G. Li, X. Jin, L.C. Chen, B. Cohen, et
al. (2002). Hematological changes among Chinese workers with a broad
range of benzene exposures. Am. J. Industr. Med. 42: 275-285.
\472\ Lan, Qing, Zhang, L., Li, G., Vermeulen, R., et al.
(2004). Hematotoxically in Workers Exposed to Low Levels of Benzene.
Science 306: 1774-1776.
\473\ Turtletaub, K.W. and Mani, C. (2003). Benzene metabolism
in rodents at doses relevant to human exposure from Urban Air.
Research Reports Health Effect Inst. Report No.113.
\474\ U.S. Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry
(ATSDR). (2007). Toxicological profile for benzene. Atlanta, GA:
U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Public Health Service.
https://www.atsdr.cdc.gov/ToxProfiles/tp3.pdf.
\475\ A minimal risk level (MRL) is defined as an estimate of
the daily human exposure to a hazardous substance that is likely to
be without appreciable risk of adverse noncancer health effects over
a specified duration of exposure.
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(c) 1,3-Butadiene
EPA has characterized 1,3-butadiene as carcinogenic to humans by
inhalation.476 477 The IARC has determined that 1,3-
butadiene is a human carcinogen and the U.S. DHHS has characterized
1,3-butadiene as a known human carcinogen.478 479 480 There
are numerous studies consistently demonstrating that 1,3-butadiene is
metabolized into genotoxic metabolites by experimental animals and
humans. The specific mechanisms of 1,3-butadiene-induced carcinogenesis
are unknown; however, the scientific evidence strongly suggests that
the carcinogenic effects are mediated by genotoxic metabolites. Animal
data suggest that females may be more sensitive than males for cancer
effects associated with 1,3-butadiene exposure; there are insufficient
data in humans from which to draw conclusions about sensitive
subpopulations. The URE for 1,3-butadiene is 3 x 10-5 per
[mu]g/m\3\.\481\ 1,3-butadiene also causes a variety of reproductive
and developmental effects in mice; no human data on these effects are
available. The most sensitive effect was ovarian atrophy observed in a
lifetime bioassay of female mice.\482\ Based on this critical effect
and the benchmark concentration methodology, an RfC for chronic health
effects was calculated at 0.9 ppb (approximately 2 [mu]g/m\3\).
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\476\ U.S. EPA. (2002). Health Assessment of 1,3-Butadiene.
Office of Research and Development, National Center for
Environmental Assessment, Washington Office, Washington, DC. Report
No. EPA600-P-98-001F. This document is available electronically at
https://www.epa.gov/iris/supdocs/buta-sup.pdf.
\477\ U.S. EPA. (2002). ``Full IRIS Summary for 1,3-butadiene
(CASRN 106-99-0)'' Environmental Protection Agency, Integrated Risk
Information System (IRIS), Research and Development, National Center
for Environmental Assessment, Washington, DC https://www.epa.gov/iris/subst/0139.htm.
\478\ International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC).
(1999). Monographs on the evaluation of carcinogenic risk of
chemicals to humans, Volume 71, Re-evaluation of some organic
chemicals, hydrazine and hydrogen peroxide and Volume 97 (in
preparation), World Health Organization, Lyon, France.
\479\ International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC).
(2008). Monographs on the evaluation of carcinogenic risk of
chemicals to humans, 1,3-Butadiene, Ethylene Oxide and Vinyl Halides
(Vinyl Fluoride, Vinyl Chloride and Vinyl Bromide) Volume 97, World
Health Organization, Lyon, France.
\480\ NTP. (2014). 13th Report on Carcinogens. Research Triangle
Park, NC: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Public
Health Service, National Toxicology Program.
\481\ U.S. EPA. (2002). ``Full IRIS Summary for 1,3-butadiene
(CASRN 106-99-0)'' Environmental Protection Agency, Integrated Risk
Information System (IRIS), Research and Development, National Center
for Environmental Assessment, Washington, DC https://www.epa.gov/iris/subst/0139.htm.
\482\ Bevan, C.; Stadler, J.C.; Elliot, G.S.; et al. (1996).
Subchronic toxicity of 4-vinylcyclohexene in rats and mice by
inhalation. Fundam. Appl. Toxicol. 32:1-10.
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(d) Formaldehyde
In 1991, EPA concluded that formaldehyde is a carcinogen based on
nasal tumors in animal bioassays.\483\ An Inhalation URE for cancer and
a Reference Dose for oral noncancer effects were developed by the
agency and posted on the IRIS database. Since that time, the National
Toxicology Program (NTP) and International Agency for Research on
Cancer (IARC) have concluded that formaldehyde is a known human
carcinogen.484 485
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\483\ EPA. Integrated Risk Information System. Formaldehyde
(CASRN 50-00-0) https://www.epa.gov/iris/subst/0419/htm.
\484\ NTP. (2014). 13th Report on Carcinogens. Research Triangle
Park, NC: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Public
Health Service, National Toxicology Program.
\485\ IARC Monographs on the Evaluation of Carcinogenic Risks to
Humans Volume 100F (2012): Formaldehyde.
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The conclusions by IARC and NTP reflect the results of
epidemiologic research published since 1991 in combination with
previous animal, human and mechanistic evidence. Research conducted by
the National Cancer Institute reported an increased risk of
nasopharyngeal cancer and specific lymph hematopoietic malignancies
among workers exposed to formaldehyde.486 487 488 A National
Institute of Occupational Safety and Health study of garment workers
also reported increased risk of death due to leukemia among workers
exposed to formaldehyde.\489\ Extended follow-up of a cohort of British
chemical workers did not report evidence of an increase in
nasopharyngeal or lymph hematopoietic cancers, but a continuing
statistically significant excess in lung cancers was reported.\490\
Finally, a study of embalmers reported formaldehyde exposures to be
associated with an increased risk of myeloid leukemia but not brain
cancer.\491\
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\486\ Hauptmann, M.; Lubin, J.H.; Stewart, P.A.; Hayes, R.B.;
Blair, A. 2003. Mortality from lymphohematopoetic malignancies among
workers in formaldehyde industries. Journal of the National Cancer
Institute 95: 1615-1623.
\487\ Hauptmann, M.; Lubin, J.H.; Stewart, P.A.; Hayes, R.B.;
Blair, A. 2004. Mortality from solid cancers among workers in
formaldehyde industries. American Journal of Epidemiology 159: 1117-
1130.
\488\ Beane Freeman, L.E.; Blair, A.; Lubin, J.H.; Stewart,
P.A.; Hayes, R.B.; Hoover, R.N.; Hauptmann, M. 2009. Mortality from
lymph hematopoietic malignancies among workers in formaldehyde
industries: The National Cancer Institute cohort. J. National Cancer
Inst. 101: 751-761.
\489\ Pinkerton, L.E. 2004. Mortality among a cohort of garment
workers exposed to formaldehyde: An update. Occup. Environ. Med. 61:
193-200.
\490\ Coggon, D., E.C. Harris, J. Poole, K.T. Palmer. 2003.
Extended follow-up of a cohort of British chemical workers exposed
to formaldehyde. J National Cancer Inst. 95:1608-1615.
\491\ Hauptmann, M,; Stewart P.A.; Lubin J.H.; Beane Freeman,
L.E.; Hornung, R.W.; Herrick, R.F.; Hoover, R.N.; Fraumeni, J.F.;
Hayes, R.B. 2009. Mortality from lymph hematopoietic malignancies
and brain cancer among embalmers exposed to formaldehyde. Journal of
the National Cancer Institute 101:1696-1708.
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[[Page 40426]]
Health effects of formaldehyde in addition to cancer were reviewed
by the Agency for Toxics Substances and Disease Registry in 1999 \492\
and supplemented in 2010,\493\ and by the World Health
Organization.\494\ These organizations reviewed the scientific
literature concerning health effects linked to formaldehyde exposure to
evaluate hazards and dose response relationships and defined exposure
concentrations for minimal risk levels (MRLs). The health endpoints
reviewed included sensory irritation of eyes and respiratory tract,
pulmonary function, nasal histopathology, and immune system effects. In
addition, research on reproductive and developmental effects and
neurological effects were discussed along with several studies that
suggest that formaldehyde may increase the risk of asthma--particularly
in the young.
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\492\ ATSDR. 1999. Toxicological Profile for Formaldehyde, U.S.
Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), July 1999.
\493\ ATSDR. 2010. Addendum to the Toxicological Profile for
Formaldehyde. U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS),
October 2010.
\494\ IPCS. 2002. Concise International Chemical Assessment
Document 40. Formaldehyde. World Health Organization.
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EPA released a draft Toxicological Review of Formaldehyde--
Inhalation Assessment through the IRIS program for peer review by the
National Research Council (NRC) and public comment in June 2010.\495\
The draft assessment reviewed more recent research from animal and
human studies on cancer and other health effects. The NRC released
their review report in April 2011.\496\ EPA is currently developing a
new draft assessment in response to this review.
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\495\ EPA (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency). 2010.
Toxicological Review of Formaldehyde (CAS No. 50-00-0)--Inhalation
Assessment: In Support of Summary Information on the Integrated Risk
Information System (IRIS). External Review Draft. EPA/635/R-10/002A.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC [online].
Available: https://cfpub.epa.gov/ncea/irs_drats/recordisplay.cfm?deid=223614.
\496\ NRC (National Research Council). 2011. Review of the
Environmental Protection Agency's Draft IRIS Assessment of
Formaldehyde. Washington DC: National Academies Press. https://books.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=13142.
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(e) Acetaldehyde
Acetaldehyde is classified in EPA's IRIS database as a probable
human carcinogen, based on nasal tumors in rats, and is considered
toxic by the inhalation, oral, and intravenous routes.\497\ The URE in
IRIS for acetaldehyde is 2.2 x 10-6 per [mu]g/m\3\.\498\
Acetaldehyde is reasonably anticipated to be a human carcinogen by the
U.S. DHHS in the 13th Report on Carcinogens and is classified as
possibly carcinogenic to humans (Group 2B) by the
IARC.499 500 EPA is currently conducting a reassessment of
cancer risk from inhalation exposure to acetaldehyde.
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\497\ U.S. EPA (1991). Integrated Risk Information System File
of Acetaldehyde. Research and Development, National Center for
Environmental Assessment, Washington, DC. This material is available
electronically at https://www.epa.gov/iris/subst/0290.htm.
\498\ U.S. EPA (1991). Integrated Risk Information System File
of Acetaldehyde. This material is available electronically at https://www.epa.gov/iris/subst/0290.htm.
\499\ NTP. (2014). 13th Report on Carcinogens. Research Triangle
Park, NC: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Public
Health Service, National Toxicology Program.
\500\ International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC).
(1999). Re-evaluation of some organic chemicals, hydrazine, and
hydrogen peroxide. IARC Monographs on the Evaluation of Carcinogenic
Risk of Chemical to Humans, Vol 71. Lyon, France.
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The primary noncancer effects of exposure to acetaldehyde vapors
include irritation of the eyes, skin, and respiratory tract.\501\ In
short-term (4 week) rat studies, degeneration of olfactory epithelium
was observed at various concentration levels of acetaldehyde
exposure.502 503 Data from these studies were used by EPA to
develop an inhalation reference concentration of 9 [mu]g/m\3\. Some
asthmatics have been shown to be a sensitive subpopulation to
decrements in functional expiratory volume (FEV1 test) and
bronchoconstriction upon acetaldehyde inhalation.\504\ The agency is
currently conducting a reassessment of the health hazards from
inhalation exposure to acetaldehyde.
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\501\ U.S. EPA (1991). Integrated Risk Information System File
of Acetaldehyde. This material is available electronically at https://www.epa.gov/iris/subst/0290.htm.
\502\ U.S. EPA. (2003). Integrated Risk Information System File
of Acrolein. Research and Development, National Center for
Environmental Assessment, Washington, DC. This material is available
electronically at https://www.epa.gov/iris/subst/0364.htm.
\503\ Appleman, L.M., R.A. Woutersen, and V.J. Feron. (1982).
Inhalation toxicity of acetaldehyde in rats. I. Acute and subacute
studies. Toxicology. 23: 293-297.
\504\ Myou, S.; Fujimura, M.; Nishi K.; Ohka, T.; and Matsuda,
T. (1993) Aerosolized acetaldehyde induces histamine-mediated
bronchoconstriction in asthmatics. Am. Rev. Respir. Dis. 148(4 Pt
1): 940-943.
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(f) Acrolein
EPA most recently evaluated the toxicological and health effects
literature related to acrolein in 2003 and concluded that the human
carcinogenic potential of acrolein could not be determined because the
available data were inadequate. No information was available on the
carcinogenic effects of acrolein in humans and the animal data provided
inadequate evidence of carcinogenicity.\505\ The IARC determined in
1995 that acrolein was not classifiable as to its carcinogenicity in
humans.\506\
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\505\ U.S. EPA. (2003). Integrated Risk Information System File
of Acrolein. Research and Development, National Center for
Environmental Assessment, Washington, DC. This material is available
at https://www.epa.gov/iris/subst/0364.htm.
\506\ International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC).
(1995). Monographs on the evaluation of carcinogenic risk of
chemicals to humans, Volume 63. Dry cleaning, some chlorinated
solvents and other industrial chemicals, World Health Organization,
Lyon, France.
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Lesions to the lungs and upper respiratory tract of rats, rabbits,
and hamsters have been observed after subchronic exposure to
acrolein.\507\ The agency has developed an RfC for acrolein of 0.02
[mu]g/m\3\ and an RfD of 0.5 [mu]g/kg-day.\508\ EPA is considering
updating the acrolein assessment with data that have become available
since the 2003 assessment was completed.
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\507\ U.S. EPA. (2003). Integrated Risk Information System File
of Acrolein. Office of Research and Development, National Center for
Environmental Assessment, Washington, DC. This material is available
at https://www.epa.gov/iris/subst/0364.htm.
\508\ U.S. EPA. (2003). Integrated Risk Information System File
of Acrolein. Office of Research and Development, National Center for
Environmental Assessment, Washington, DC. This material is available
at https://www.epa.gov/iris/subst/0364.htm.
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Acrolein is extremely acrid and irritating to humans when inhaled,
with acute exposure resulting in upper respiratory tract irritation,
mucus hypersecretion and congestion. The intense irritancy of this
carbonyl has been demonstrated during controlled tests in human
subjects, who suffer intolerable eye and nasal mucosal sensory
reactions within minutes of exposure.\509\ These data and additional
studies regarding acute effects of human exposure to acrolein are
summarized in EPA's 2003 IRIS Human Health Assessment for
acrolein.\510\ Studies in humans indicate that levels as low as 0.09
ppm (0.21 mg/m\3\) for five minutes may elicit subjective complaints of
eye irritation with increasing concentrations leading to more extensive
eye, nose and respiratory symptoms. Acute exposures in animal studies
report bronchial
[[Page 40427]]
hyper-responsiveness. Based on animal data (more pronounced respiratory
irritancy in mice with allergic airway disease in comparison to non-
diseased mice \511\) and demonstration of similar effects in humans
(e.g., reduction in respiratory rate), individuals with compromised
respiratory function (e.g., emphysema, asthma) are expected to be at
increased risk of developing adverse responses to strong respiratory
irritants such as acrolein. EPA does not currently have an acute
reference concentration for acrolein. The available health effect
reference values for acrolein have been summarized by EPA and include
an ATSDR MRL for acute exposure to acrolein of 7 [mu]g/m\3\ for 1-14
days exposure; and Reference Exposure Level (REL) values from the
California Office of Environmental Health Hazard Assessment (OEHHA) for
one-hour and 8-hour exposures of 2.5 [mu]g/m\3\ and 0.7 [mu]g/m\3\,
respectively.\512\
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\509\ U.S. EPA. (2003) Toxicological review of acrolein in
support of summary information on Integrated Risk Information System
(IRIS) National Center for Environmental Assessment, Washington, DC.
EPA/635/R-03/003. p. 10. Available online at: https://www.epa.gov/ncea/iris/toxreviews/0364tr.pdf.
\510\ U.S. EPA. (2003) Toxicological review of acrolein in
support of summary information on Integrated Risk Information System
(IRIS) National Center for Environmental Assessment, Washington, DC.
EPA/635/R-03/003. Available online at: https://www.epa.gov/ncea/iris/toxreviews/0364tr.pdf.
\511\ Morris J.B., Symanowicz P.T., Olsen J.E., et al. (2003).
Immediate sensory nerve-mediated respiratory responses to irritants
in healthy and allergic airway-diseased mice. J Appl Physiol
94(4):1563-1571.
\512\ U.S. EPA. (2009). Graphical Arrays of Chemical-Specific
Health Effect Reference Values for Inhalation Exposures (Final
Report). U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC, EPA/
600/R-09/061, 2009. https://cfpub.epa.gov/ncea/cfm/recordisplay.cfm?deid=211003.
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(g) Polycyclic Organic Matter
The term polycyclic organic matter (POM) defines a broad class of
compounds that includes the polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon compounds
(PAHs). One of these compounds, naphthalene, is discussed separately
below. POM compounds are formed primarily from combustion and are
present in the atmosphere in gas and particulate form. Cancer is the
major concern from exposure to POM. Epidemiologic studies have reported
an increase in lung cancer in humans exposed to diesel exhaust, coke
oven emissions, roofing tar emissions, and cigarette smoke; all of
these mixtures contain POM compounds.513 514 Animal studies
have reported respiratory tract tumors from inhalation exposure to
benzo[a]pyrene and alimentary tract and liver tumors from oral exposure
to benzo[a]pyrene.\515\ In 1997 EPA classified seven PAHs
(benzo[a]pyrene, benz[a]anthracene, chrysene, benzo[b]fluoranthene,
benzo[k]fluoranthene, dibenz[a,h]anthracene, and indeno[1,2,3-
cd]pyrene) as Group B2, probable human carcinogens.\516\ Since that
time, studies have found that maternal exposures to PAHs in a
population of pregnant women were associated with several adverse birth
outcomes, including low birth weight and reduced length at birth, as
well as impaired cognitive development in preschool children (3 years
of age).517 518 These and similar studies are being
evaluated as a part of the ongoing IRIS assessment of health effects
associated with exposure to benzo[a]pyrene.
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\513\ Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry (ATSDR).
(1995). Toxicological profile for Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons
(PAHs). Atlanta, GA: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services,
Public Health Service. Available electronically at https://www.atsdr.cdc.gov/ToxProfiles/TP.asp?id=122&tid=25.
\514\ U.S. EPA (2002). Health Assessment Document for Diesel
Engine Exhaust. EPA/600/8-90/057F Office of Research and
Development, Washington, DC. https://cfpub.epa.gov/ncea/cfm/recordisplay.cfm?deid=29060.
\515\ International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC).
(2012). Monographs on the Evaluation of the Carcinogenic Risk of
Chemicals for Humans, Chemical Agents and Related Occupations. Vol.
100F. Lyon, France.
\516\ U.S. EPA (1997). Integrated Risk Information System File
of indeno (1,2,3-cd) pyrene. Research and Development, National
Center for Environmental Assessment, Washington, DC. This material
is available electronically at https://www.epa.gov/ncea/iris/subst/0457.htm.
\517\ Perera, F.P.; Rauh, V.; Tsai, W-Y.; et al. (2002). Effect
of transplacental exposure to environmental pollutants on birth
outcomes in a multiethnic population. Environ Health Perspect. 111:
201-205.
\518\ Perera, F.P.; Rauh, V.; Whyatt, R.M.; Tsai, W.Y.; Tang,
D.; Diaz, D.; Hoepner, L.; Barr, D.; Tu, Y.H.; Camann, D.; Kinney,
P. (2006). Effect of prenatal exposure to airborne polycyclic
aromatic hydrocarbons on neurodevelopment in the first 3 years of
life among inner-city children. Environ Health Perspect 114: 1287-
1292.
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(h) Naphthalene
Naphthalene is found in small quantities in gasoline and diesel
fuels. Naphthalene emissions have been measured in larger quantities in
both gasoline and diesel exhaust compared with evaporative emissions
from mobile sources, indicating it is primarily a product of
combustion. Acute (short-term) exposure of humans to naphthalene by
inhalation, ingestion, or dermal contact is associated with hemolytic
anemia and damage to the liver and the nervous system.\519\ Chronic
(long term) exposure of workers and rodents to naphthalene has been
reported to cause cataracts and retinal damage.\520\ EPA released an
external review draft of a reassessment of the inhalation
carcinogenicity of naphthalene based on a number of recent animal
carcinogenicity studies.\521\ The draft reassessment completed external
peer review.\522\ Based on external peer review comments received, a
revised draft assessment that considers all routes of exposure, as well
as cancer and noncancer effects, is under development. The external
review draft does not represent official agency opinion and was
released solely for the purposes of external peer review and public
comment. The National Toxicology Program listed naphthalene as
``reasonably anticipated to be a human carcinogen'' in 2004 on the
basis of bioassays reporting clear evidence of carcinogenicity in rats
and some evidence of carcinogenicity in mice.\523\ California EPA has
released a new risk assessment for naphthalene, and the IARC has
reevaluated naphthalene and re-classified it as Group 2B: Possibly
carcinogenic to humans.\524\
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\519\ U.S. EPA. 1998. Toxicological Review of Naphthalene
(Reassessment of the Inhalation Cancer Risk), Environmental
Protection Agency, Integrated Risk Information System, Research and
Development, National Center for Environmental Assessment,
Washington, DC. This material is available electronically at https://www.epa.gov/iris/subst/0436.htm.
\520\ U.S. EPA. 1998. Toxicological Review of Naphthalene
(Reassessment of the Inhalation Cancer Risk), Environmental
Protection Agency, Integrated Risk Information System, Research and
Development, National Center for Environmental Assessment,
Washington, DC. This material is available electronically at https://www.epa.gov/iris/subst/0436.htm.
\521\ U.S. EPA. (1998). Toxicological Review of Naphthalene
(Reassessment of the Inhalation Cancer Risk), Environmental
Protection Agency, Integrated Risk Information System, Research and
Development, National Center for Environmental Assessment,
Washington, DC. This material is available electronically at https://www.epa.gov/iris/subst/0436.htm.
\522\ Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education. (2004).
External Peer Review for the IRIS Reassessment of the Inhalation
Carcinogenicity of Naphthalene. August 2004. https://cfpub.epa.gov/ncea/cfm/recordisplay.cfm?deid=84403.
\523\ NTP. (2014). 13th Report on Carcinogens. U.S. Department
of Health and Human Services, Public Health Service, National
Toxicology Program.
\524\ International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC).
(2002). Monographs on the Evaluation of the Carcinogenic Risk of
Chemicals for Humans. Vol. 82. Lyon, France.
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Naphthalene also causes a number of chronic non-cancer effects in
animals, including abnormal cell changes and growth in respiratory and
nasal tissues.\525\ The current EPA IRIS assessment includes noncancer
data on hyperplasia and metaplasia in nasal tissue that form the basis
of the inhalation RfC of 3 [mu]g/m\3\.\526\ The
[[Page 40428]]
ATSDR MRL for acute exposure to naphthalene is 0.6 mg/kg/day.
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\525\ U.S. EPA. (1998). Toxicological Review of Naphthalene,
Environmental Protection Agency, Integrated Risk Information System,
Research and Development, National Center for Environmental
Assessment, Washington, DC. This material is available
electronically at https://www.epa.gov/iris/subst/0436.htm.
\526\ U.S. EPA. (1998). Toxicological Review of Naphthalene.
Environmental Protection Agency, Integrated Risk Information System
(IRIS), Research and Development, National Center for Environmental
Assessment, Washington, DC https://www.epa.gov/iris/subst/0436.htm.
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(i) Other Air Toxics
In addition to the compounds described above, other compounds in
gaseous hydrocarbon and PM emissions from motor vehicles will be
affected by this action. Mobile source air toxic compounds that will
potentially be impacted include ethylbenzene, propionaldehyde, toluene,
and xylene. Information regarding the health effects of these compounds
can be found in EPA's IRIS database.\527\
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\527\ U.S. EPA Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS)
database is available at: www.epa.gov/iris.
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(8) Exposure and Health Effects Associated With Traffic
Locations in close proximity to major roadways generally have
elevated concentrations of many air pollutants emitted from motor
vehicles. Hundreds of such studies have been published in peer-reviewed
journals, concluding that concentrations of CO, NO, NO2,
benzene, aldehydes, particulate matter, black carbon, and many other
compounds are elevated in ambient air within approximately 300-600
meters (about 1,000-2,000 feet) of major roadways. Highest
concentrations of most pollutants emitted directly by motor vehicles
are found at locations within 50 meters (about 165 feet) of the edge of
a roadway's traffic lanes.
A recent large-scale review of air quality measurements in vicinity
of major roadways between 1978 and 2008 concluded that the pollutants
with the steepest concentration gradients in vicinities of roadways
were CO, ultrafine particles, metals, elemental carbon (EC), NO,
NOX, and several VOCs.\528\ These pollutants showed a large
reduction in concentrations within 100 meters downwind of the roadway.
Pollutants that showed more gradual reductions with distance from
roadways included benzene, NO2, PM2.5, and
PM10. In the review article, results varied based on the
method of statistical analysis used to determine the trend.
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\528\ Karner, A.A.; Eisinger, D.S.; Niemeier, D.A. (2010). Near-
roadway air quality: Synthesizing the findings from real-world data.
Environ Sci Technol 44: 5334-5344.
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For pollutants with relatively high background concentrations
relative to near-road concentrations, detecting concentration gradients
can be difficult. For example, many aldehydes have high background
concentrations as a result of photochemical breakdown of precursors
from many different organic compounds. This can make detection of
gradients around roadways and other primary emission sources difficult.
However, several studies have measured aldehydes in multiple weather
conditions, and found higher concentrations of many carbonyls downwind
of roadways.529 530 These findings suggest a substantial
roadway source of these carbonyls.
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\529\ Liu, W.; Zhang, J.; Kwon, J.l; et l. (2006).
Concentrations and source characteristics of airborne carbonyl
comlbs measured outside urban residences. J Air Waste Manage Assoc
56: 1196-1204.
\530\ Cahill, T.M.; Charles, M.J.; Seaman, V.Y. (2010).
Development and application of a sensitive method to determine
concentrations of acrolein and other carbonyls in ambient air.
Health Effects Institute Research Report 149.Available at https://dx.doi.org.
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In the past 15 years, many studies have been published with results
reporting that populations who live, work, or go to school near high-
traffic roadways experience higher rates of numerous adverse health
effects, compared to populations far away from major roads.\531\ In
addition, numerous studies have found adverse health effects associated
with spending time in traffic, such as commuting or walking along high-
traffic roadways.532 533 534 535 The health outcomes with
the strongest evidence linking them with traffic-associated air
pollutants are respiratory effects, particularly in asthmatic children,
and cardiovascular effects.
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\531\ In the widely-used PubMed database of health publications,
between January 1, 1990 and August 18, 2011, 605 publications
contained the keywords ``traffic, pollution, epidemiology,'' with
approximately half the studies published after 2007.
\532\ Laden, F.; Hart, J.E.; Smith, T.J.; Davis, M.E.; Garshick,
E. (2007) Cause-specific mortality in the unionized U.S. trucking
industry. Environmental Health Perspect 115:1192-1196.
\533\ Peters, A.; von Klot, S.; Heier, M.; Trentinaglia, I.;
H[ouml]rmann, A.; Wichmann, H.E.; L[ouml]wel, H. (2004) Exposure to
traffic and the onset of myocardial infarction. New England J Med
351: 1721-1730.
\534\ Zanobetti, A.; Stone, P.H.; Spelzer, F.E.; Schwartz, J.D.;
Coull, B.A.; Suh, H.H.; Nearling, B.D.; Mittleman, M.A.; Verrier,
R.L.; Gold, D.R. (2009) T-wave alternans, air pollution and traffic
in high-risk subjects. Am J Cardiol 104: 665-670.
\535\ Dubowsky Adar, S.; Adamkiewicz, G.; Gold, D.R.; Schwartz,
J.; Coull, B.A.; Suh, H. (2007) Ambient and microenvironmental
particles and exhaled nitric oxide before and after a group bus
trip. Environ Health Perspect 115: 507-512.
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Numerous reviews of this body of health literature have been
published as well. In 2010, an expert panel of the Health Effects
Institute (HEI) published a review of hundreds of exposure,
epidemiology, and toxicology studies.\536\ The panel rated how the
evidence for each type of health outcome supported a conclusion of a
causal association with traffic-associated air pollution as either
``sufficient,'' ``suggestive but not sufficient,'' or ``inadequate and
insufficient.'' The panel categorized evidence of a causal association
for exacerbation of childhood asthma as ``sufficient.'' The panel
categorized evidence of a causal association for new onset asthma as
between ``sufficient'' and as ``suggestive but not sufficient.''
``Suggestive of a causal association'' was how the panel categorized
evidence linking traffic-associated air pollutants with exacerbation of
adult respiratory symptoms and lung function decrement. It categorized
as ``inadequate and insufficient'' evidence of a causal relationship
between traffic-related air pollution and health care utilization for
respiratory problems, new onset adult asthma, chronic obstructive
pulmonary disease (COPD), nonasthmatic respiratory allergy, and cancer
in adults and children. Other literature reviews have been published
with conclusions generally similar to the HEI
panel's.537 538 539 540 However, researchers from the U.S.
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recently published a
systematic review and meta-analysis of studies evaluating the risk of
childhood leukemia associated with traffic exposure, and reported
positive associations between ``postnatal'' proximity to traffic and
leukemia risks, but no such association for ``prenatal''
exposures.\541\
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\536\ Health Effects Institute Panel on the Health Effects of
Traffic-Related Air Pollution. (2010). Traffic-related air
pollution: A critical review of the literature on emissions,
exposure, and health effects. HEI Special Report 17. Available at
https://www.healtheffects.org.
\537\ Boothe, V.L.; Shendell, D.G. (2008). Potential health
effects associated with residential proximity to freeways and
primary roads: Review of scientific literature, 1999-2006. J Environ
Health 70: 33-41.
\538\ Salam, M.T.; Islam, T.; Gilliland, F.D. (2008). Recent
evidence for adverse effects of residential proximity to traffic
sources on asthma. Curr Opin Pulm Med 14: 3-8.
\539\ Sun, X.; Zhang, S.; Ma, X. (2014) No association between
traffic density and risk of childhood leukemia: A meta-analysis.
Asia Pac J Cancer Prev 15: 5229-5232.
\540\ Raaschou-Nielsen, O.; Reynolds, P. (2006). Air pollution
and childhood cancer: A review of the epidemiological literature.
Int J Cancer 118: 2920-9.
\541\ Boothe, V.L.; Boehmer, T.K.; Wendel, A.M.; Yip, F.Y.
(2014) Residential traffic exposure and childhood leukemia: A
systematic review and meta-analysis. Am J Prev Med 46: 413-422.
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Health outcomes with few publications suggest the possibility of
other effects still lacking sufficient evidence to draw definitive
conclusions. Among these outcomes with a small number of positive
studies are neurological impacts (e.g., autism and reduced cognitive
function) and reproductive outcomes (e.g., preterm birth, low birth
weight).542 543 544 545
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\542\ Volk, H.E.; Hertz-Picciotto, I.; Delwiche, L.; et al.
(2011). Residential proximity to freeways and autism in the CHARGE
study. Environ Health Perspect 119: 873-877.
\543\ Franco-Suglia, S.; Gryparis, A.; Wright, R.O.; et al.
(2007). Association of black carbon with cognition among children in
a prospective birth cohort study. Am J Epidemiol. doi: 10.1093/aje/
kwm308. [Online at https://dx.doi.org].
\544\ Power, M.C.; Weisskopf, M.G.; Alexeef, S.E.; et al.
(2011). Traffic-related air pollution and cognitive function in a
cohort of older men. Environ Health Perspect 2011: 682-687.
\545\ Wu, J.; Wilhelm, M.; Chung, J.; et al. (2011). Comparing
exposure assessment methods for traffic-related air pollution in an
adverse pregnancy outcome study. Environ Res 111: 685-6692.
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[[Page 40429]]
In addition to health outcomes, particularly cardiopulmonary
effects, conclusions of numerous studies suggest mechanisms by which
traffic-related air pollution affects health. Numerous studies indicate
that near-roadway exposures may increase systemic inflammation,
affecting organ systems, including blood vessels and
lungs.546 547 548 549 Long-term exposures in near-road
environments have been associated with inflammation-associated
conditions, such as atherosclerosis and asthma.550 551 552
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\546\ Riediker, M. (2007). Cardiovascular effects of fine
particulate matter components in highway patrol officers. Inhal
Toxicol 19: 99-105. doi: 10.1080/08958370701495238. Available at
https://dx.doi.org.
\547\ Alexeef, S.E.; Coull, B.A.; Gryparis, A.; et al. (2011).
Medium-term exposure to traffic-related air pollution and markers of
inflammation and endothelial function. Environ Health Perspect 119:
481-486. doi:10.1289/ehp.1002560. Available at https://dx.doi.org.
\548\ Eckel. S.P.; Berhane, K.; Salam, M.T.; et al. (2011).
Traffic-related pollution exposure and exhaled nitric oxide in the
Children's Health Study. Environ Health Perspect (IN PRESS).
doi:10.1289/ehp.1103516. Available at https://dx.doi.org.
\549\ Zhang, J.; McCreanor, J.E.; Cullinan, P.; et al. (2009).
Health effects of real-world exposure diesel exhaust in persons with
asthma. Res Rep Health Effects Inst 138. [Online at https://www.healtheffects.org].
\550\ Adar, S.D.; Klein, R.; Klein, E.K.; et al. (2010). Air
pollution and the microvasculatory: A cross-sectional assessment of
in vivo retinal images in the population-based Multi-Ethnic Study of
Atherosclerosis. PLoS Med 7(11): E1000372. doi:10.1371/
journal.pmed.1000372. Available at https://dx.doi.org.
\551\ Kan, H.; Heiss, G.; Rose, K.M.; et al. (2008). Proxpective
analysis of traffic exposure as a risk factor for incident coronary
heart disease: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study.
Environ Health Perspect 116: 1463-1468. doi:10.1289/ehp.11290.
Available at https://dx.doi.org.
\552\ McConnell, R.; Islam, T.; Shankardass, K.; et al. (2010).
Childhood incident asthma and traffic-related air pollution at home
and school. Environ Health Perspect 1021-1026.
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Several studies suggest that some factors may increase
susceptibility to the effects of traffic-associated air pollution.
Several studies have found stronger respiratory associations in
children experiencing chronic social stress, such as in violent
neighborhoods or in homes with high family
stress.553 554 555
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\553\ Islam, T.; Urban, R.; Gauderman, W.J.; et al. (2011).
Parental stress increases the detrimental effect of traffic exposure
on children's lung function. Am J Respir Crit Care Med (In press).
\554\ Clougherty, J.E.; Levy, J.I.; Kubzansky, L.D.; et al.
(2007). Synergistic effects of traffic-related air pollution and
exposure to violence on urban asthma etiology. Environ Health
Perspect 115: 1140-1146.
\555\ Chen, E.; Schrier, H.M.; Strunk, R.C.; et al. (2008).
Chronic traffic-related air pollution and stress interact to predict
biologic and clinical outcomes in asthma. Environ Health Perspect
116: 970-5.
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The risks associated with residence, workplace, or schools near
major roads are of potentially high public health significance due to
the large population in such locations. According to the 2009 American
Housing Survey, over 22 million homes (17.0 percent of all U.S. housing
units) were located within 300 feet of an airport, railroad, or highway
with four or more lanes. This corresponds to a population of more than
50 million U.S. residents in close proximity to high-traffic roadways
or other transportation sources. Based on 2010 Census data, a 2013
publication estimated that 19 percent of the U.S. population (over 59
million people) lived within 500 meters of roads with at least 25,000
annual average daily traffic (AADT), while about 3.2 percent of the
population lived within 100 meters (about 300 feet) of such roads.\556\
Another 2013 study estimated that 3.7 percent of the U.S. population
(about 11.3 million people) lived within 150 meters (about 500 feet) of
interstate highways, or other freeways and expressways.\557\ As
discussed in Section VIII. B. (9), on average, populations near major
roads have higher fractions of minority residents and lower
socioeconomic status. Furthermore, on average, Americans spend more
than an hour traveling each day, bringing nearly all residents into a
high-exposure microenvironment for part of the day.
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\556\ Rowangould, G.M. (2013) A census of the U.S. near-roadway
population: Public health and environmental justice considerations.
Transportation Research Part D 25: 59-67.
\557\ Boehmer, T.K.; Foster, S.L.; Henry, J.R.; Woghiren-
Akinnifesi, E.L.; Yip, F.Y. (2013) Residential proximity to major
highways--United States, 2010. Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report
62(3); 46-50.
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In light of these concerns, EPA has required and is working with
states to ensure that air quality monitors be placed near high-traffic
roadways for determining NAAQS compliance for CO, NO2, and
PM2.5 (in addition to those existing monitors located in
neighborhoods and other locations farther away from pollution sources).
Near-roadway monitors for NO2 begin operation between 2014
and 2017 in Core Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs) with population of at
least 500,000. Monitors for CO and PM2.5 begin operation
between 2015 and 2017. These monitors will further our understanding of
exposure in these locations.
EPA and DOT continue to research near-road air quality, including
the types of pollutants found in high concentrations near major roads
and health problems associated with the mixture of pollutants near
roads.
(9) Environmental Justice
Environmental justice (EJ) is a principle asserting that all people
deserve fair treatment and meaningful involvement with respect to
environmental laws, regulations, and policies. EPA seeks to provide the
same degree of protection from environmental health hazards for all
people. DOT shares this goal and is informed about the potential
environmental impacts of its rulemakings through its NEPA process (see
NHTSA's DEIS). As referenced below, numerous studies have found that
some environmental hazards are more prevalent in areas where racial/
ethnic minorities and people with low socioeconomic status (SES),
represent a higher fraction of the population compared with the general
population.
As discussed in Section VIII. B. (8) of this document and NHTSA's
DEIS, concentrations of many air pollutants are elevated near high-
traffic roadways. If minority populations and low-income populations
disproportionately live near such roads, then an issue of EJ may be
present. We reviewed existing scholarly literature examining the
potential for disproportionate exposure among minorities and people
with low SES and we conducted our own evaluation of two national
datasets: The U.S. Census Bureau's American Housing Survey for calendar
year 2009 and the U.S. Department of Education's database of school
locations.
Publications that address EJ issues generally report that
populations living near major roadways (and other types of
transportation infrastructure) tend to be composed of larger fractions
of nonwhite residents. People living in neighborhoods near such sources
of air pollution also tend to be lower in income than people living
elsewhere. Numerous studies evaluating the demographics and
socioeconomic status of populations or schools near roadways have found
that they include a greater percentage of minority residents, as well
as lower SES (indicated by variables such as median household income).
Locations in these studies include Los Angeles, CA; Seattle, WA; Wayne
County, MI; Orange County, FL; and the
[[Page 40430]]
State of California 558 559 560 561 562 563 Such disparities
may be due to multiple factors.\564\
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\558\ Marshall, J.D. (2008) Environmental inequality: Air
pollution exposures in California's South Coast Air Basin.
\559\ Su, J.G.; Larson, T.; Gould, T.; Cohen, M.; Buzzelli, M.
(2010) Transboundary air pollution and environmental justice:
Vancouver and Seattle compared. GeoJournal 57: 595-608. doi:10.1007/
s10708-009-9269-6 [Online at https://dx.doi.org].
\560\ Chakraborty, J.; Zandbergen, P.A. (2007) Children at risk:
Measuring racial/ethnic disparities in potential exposure to air
pollution at school and home. J Epidemiol Community Health 61: 1074-
1079. doi: 10.1136/jech.2006.054130 [Online at https://dx.doi.org].
\561\ Green, R.S.; Smorodinsky, S.; Kim, J.J.; McLaughlin, R.;
Ostro, B. (2003) Proximity of California public schools to busy
roads. Environ Health Perspect 112: 61-66. doi:10.1289/ehp.6566
[https://dx.doi.org].
\562\ Wu, Y.; Batterman, S.A. (2006) Proximity of schools in
Detroit, Michigan to automobile and truck traffic. J Exposure Sci &
Environ Epidemiol. doi:10.1038/sj.jes.7500484 [Online at https://dx.doi.org].
\563\ Su, J.G.; Jerrett, M.; de Nazelle, A.; Wolch, J. (2011)
Does exposure to air pollution in urban parks have socioeconomic,
racial, or ethnic gradients? Environ Res 111: 319-328.
\564\ Depro, B.; Timmins, C. (2008) Mobility and environmental
equity: Do housing choices determine exposure to air pollution?
North Caroline State University Center for Environmental and
Resource Economic Policy.
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People with low SES often live in neighborhoods with multiple
stressors and health risk factors, including reduced health insurance
coverage rates, higher smoking and drug use rates, limited access to
fresh food, visible neighborhood violence, and elevated rates of
obesity and some diseases such as asthma, diabetes, and ischemic heart
disease. Although questions remain, several studies find stronger
associations between air pollution and health in locations with such
chronic neighborhood stress, suggesting that populations in these areas
may be more susceptible to the effects of air
pollution.565 566 567 568 Household-level stressors such as
parental smoking and relationship stress also may increase
susceptibility to the adverse effects of air
pollution.569 570
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\565\ Clougherty, J.E.; Kubzansky, L.D. (2009) A framework for
examining social stress and susceptibility to air pollution in
respiratory health. Environ Health Perspect 117: 1351-1358.
Doi:10.1289/ehp.0900612 [Online at https://dx.doi.org].
\566\ Clougherty, J.E.; Levy, J.I.; Kubzansky, L.D.; Ryan, P.B.;
Franco Suglia, S.; Jacobson Canner, M.; Wright, R.J. (2007)
Synergistic effects of traffic-related air pollution and exposure to
violence on urban asthma etiology. Environ Health Perspect 115:
1140-1146. doi:10.1289/ehp.9863 [Online at https://dx.doi.org].
\567\ Finkelstein, M.M.; Jerrett, M.; DeLuca, P.; Finkelstein,
N.; Verma, D.K.; Chapman, K.; Sears, M.R. (2003) Relation between
income, air pollution and mortality: a cohort study. Canadian Med
Assn J 169: 397-402.
\568\ Shankardass, K.; McConnell, R.; Jerrett, M.; Milam, J.;
Richardson, J.; Berhane, K. (2009) Parental stress increases the
effect of traffic-related air pollution on childhood asthma
incidence. Proc Natl Acad Sci 106: 12406-12411. doi:10.1073/
pnas.0812910106 [Online at https://dx.doi.org].
\569\ Lewis, A.S.; Sax, S.N.; Wason, S.C.; Campleman, S.L (2011)
Non-chemical stressors and cumulative risk assessment: an overview
of current initiatives and potential air pollutant interactions. Int
J Environ Res Public Health 8: 2020-2073. Doi:10.3390/ijerph8062020
[Online at https://dx.doi.org].
\570\ Rosa, M.J.; Jung, K.H.; Perzanowski, M.S.; Kelvin, E.A.;
Darling, K.W.; Camann, D.E.; Chillrud, S.N.; Whyatt, R.M.; Kinney,
P.L.; Perera, F.P.; Miller, R.L (2010) Prenatal exposure to
polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, environmental tobacco smoke and
asthma. Respir Med (In press). doi:10.1016/j.rmed.2010.11.022
[Online at https://dx.doi.org].
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More recently, three publications report nationwide analyses that
compare the demographic patterns of people who do or do not live near
major roadways.571 572 573 All three of these studies found
that people living near major roadways are more likely to be minorities
or low in SES. They also found that the outcomes of their analyses
varied between regions within the U.S. However, only one such study
looked at whether such conclusions were confounded by living in a
location with higher population density and how demographics differ
between locations nationwide. In general, it found that higher density
areas have higher proportions of low income and minority residents.
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\571\ Rowangould, G.M. (2013) A census of the U.S. near-roadway
population: public health and environmental justice considerations.
Transportation Research Part D; 59-67.
\572\ Tian, N.; Xue, J.; Barzyk. T.M. (2013) Evaluating
socioeconomic and racial differences in traffic-related metrics in
the United States using a GIS approach. J Exposure Sci Environ
Epidemiol 23: 215-222.
\573\ Boehmer, T.K.; Foster, S.L.; Henry, J.R.; Woghiren-
Akinnifesi, E.L.; Yip, F.Y. (2013) Residential proximity to major
highways--United States, 2010. Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report
62(3): 46-50.
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We analyzed two national databases that allowed us to evaluate
whether homes and schools were located near a major road and whether
disparities in exposure may be occurring in these environments. The
American Housing Survey (AHS) includes descriptive statistics of over
70,000 housing units across the nation. The study survey is conducted
every two years by the U.S. Census Bureau. The second database we
analyzed was the U.S. Department of Education's Common Core of Data,
which includes enrollment and location information for schools across
the U.S.
In analyzing the 2009 AHS, we focused on whether or not a housing
unit was located within 300 feet of ``4-or-more lane highway, railroad,
or airport.'' \574\ We analyzed whether there were differences between
households in such locations compared with those in locations farther
from these transportation facilities.\575\ We included other variables,
such as land use category, region of country, and housing type. We
found that homes with a nonwhite householder were 22-34 percent more
likely to be located within 300 feet of these large transportation
facilities than homes with white householders. Homes with a Hispanic
householder were 17-33 percent more likely to be located within 300
feet of these large transportation facilities than homes with non-
Hispanic householders. Households near large transportation facilities
were, on average, lower in income and educational attainment, more
likely to be a rental property and located in an urban area compared
with households more distant from transportation facilities.
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\574\ This variable primarily represents roadway proximity.
According to the Central Intelligence Agency's World Factbook, in
2010, the United States had 6,506,204 km or roadways, 224,792 km of
railways, and 15,079 airports. Highways thus represent the
overwhelming majority of transportation facilities described by this
factor in the AHS.
\575\ Bailey, C. (2011) Demographic and Social Patterns in
Housing Units Near Large Highways and other Transportation Sources.
Memorandum to docket.
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In examining schools near major roadways, we examined the Common
Core of Data (CCD) from the U.S. Department of Education, which
includes information on all public elementary and secondary schools and
school districts nationwide.\576\ To determine school proximities to
major roadways, we used a geographic information system (GIS) to map
each school and roadways based on the U.S. Census's TIGER roadway
file.\577\ We found that minority students were overrepresented at
schools within 200 meters of the largest roadways, and that schools
within 200 meters of the largest roadways also had higher than expected
numbers of students eligible for free or reduced-price lunches. For
example, Black students represent 22 percent of students at schools
located within 200 meters of a primary road, whereas Black students
represent 17 percent of students in all U.S. schools. Hispanic students
represent 30 percent of students at schools located within 200 meters
of a primary road, whereas Hispanic students represent 22 percent of
students in all U.S. schools.
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\576\ https://nces.ed.gov/ccd/.
\577\ Pedde, M.; Bailey, C. (2011) Identification of Schools
within 200 Meters of U.S. Primary and Secondary Roads. Memorandum to
the docket.
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Overall, there is substantial evidence that people who live or
attend school near major roadways are more likely to be of a minority
race, Hispanic
[[Page 40431]]
ethnicity, and/or low SES. The emission reductions from these proposed
rules would likely result in widespread air quality improvements, but
the impact on pollution levels in close proximity to roadways would be
most direct. Thus, these proposed rules would likely help in mitigating
the disparity in racial, ethnic, and economically-based exposures.
C. Environmental Effects of Non-GHG Pollutants
(1) Visibility
Visibility can be defined as the degree to which the atmosphere is
transparent to visible light.\578\ Visibility impairment is caused by
light scattering and absorption by suspended particles and gases.
Visibility is important because it has direct significance to people's
enjoyment of daily activities in all parts of the country. Individuals
value good visibility for the well-being it provides them directly,
where they live and work, and in places where they enjoy recreational
opportunities. Visibility is also highly valued in significant natural
areas, such as national parks and wilderness areas, and special
emphasis is given to protecting visibility in these areas. For more
information on visibility see the final 2009 p.m. ISA.\579\
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\578\ National Research Council, (1993). Protecting Visibility
in National Parks and Wilderness Areas. National Academy of Sciences
Committee on Haze in National Parks and Wilderness Areas. National
Academy Press, Washington, DC. This book can be viewed on the
National Academy Press Web site at https://www.nap.edu/books/0309048443/html/.
\579\ U.S. EPA. (2009). Integrated Science Assessment for
Particulate Matter (Final Report). U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency, Washington, DC, EPA/600/R-08/139F.
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EPA is working to address visibility impairment. Reductions in air
pollution from implementation of various programs associated with the
Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 (CAAA) provisions have resulted in
substantial improvements in visibility, and will continue to do so in
the future. Because trends in haze are closely associated with trends
in particulate sulfate and nitrate due to the simple relationship
between their concentration and light extinction, visibility trends
have improved as emissions of SO2 and NOX have
decreased over time due to air pollution regulations such as the Acid
Rain Program.\580\
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\580\ U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA). 2009.
Integrated Science Assessment for Particulate Matter (Final Report).
EPA-600-R-08-139F. National Center for Environmental Assessment--RTP
Division. December. Available on the Internet at <https://cfpub.epa.gov/ncea/cfm/recordisplay.cfm?deid=216546>.
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In the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1977, Congress recognized
visibility's value to society by establishing a national goal to
protect national parks and wilderness areas from visibility impairment
caused by manmade pollution.\581\ In 1999, EPA finalized the regional
haze program to protect the visibility in Mandatory Class I Federal
areas.\582\ There are 156 national parks, forests and wilderness areas
categorized as Mandatory Class I Federal areas.\583\ These areas are
defined in CAA Section 162 as those national parks exceeding 6,000
acres, wilderness areas and memorial parks exceeding 5,000 acres, and
all international parks which were in existence on August 7, 1977.
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\581\ See Section 169(a) of the Clean Air Act.
\582\ 64 FR 35714, July 1, 1999.
\583\ 62 FR 38680-38681, July 18, 1997.
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EPA has also concluded that PM2.5 causes adverse effects
on visibility in other areas that are not protected by the Regional
Haze Rule, depending on PM2.5 concentrations and other
factors such as dry chemical composition and relative humidity (i.e.,
an indicator of the water composition of the particles). EPA revised
the PM2.5 standards in December 2012 and established a
target level of protection that is expected to be met through
attainment of the existing secondary standards for PM2.5.
(2) Plant and Ecosystem Effects of Ozone
The welfare effects of ozone can be observed across a variety of
scales, i.e. subcellular, cellular, leaf, whole plant, population and
ecosystem. Ozone effects that begin at small spatial scales, such as
the leaf of an individual plant, when they occur at sufficient
magnitudes (or to a sufficient degree) can result in effects being
propagated along a continuum to larger and larger spatial scales. For
example, effects at the individual plant level, such as altered rates
of leaf gas exchange, growth and reproduction can, when widespread,
result in broad changes in ecosystems, such as productivity, carbon
storage, water cycling, nutrient cycling, and community composition.
Ozone can produce both acute and chronic injury in sensitive
species depending on the concentration level and the duration of the
exposure.\584\ In those sensitive species,\585\ effects from repeated
exposure to ozone throughout the growing season of the plant tend to
accumulate, so that even low concentrations experienced for a longer
duration have the potential to create chronic stress on
vegetation.\586\ Ozone damage to sensitive species includes impaired
photosynthesis and visible injury to leaves. The impairment of
photosynthesis, the process by which the plant makes carbohydrates (its
source of energy and food), can lead to reduced crop yields, timber
production, and plant productivity and growth. Impaired photosynthesis
can also lead to a reduction in root growth and carbohydrate storage
below ground, resulting in other, more subtle plant and ecosystems
impacts.\587\ These latter impacts include increased susceptibility of
plants to insect attack, disease, harsh weather, interspecies
competition and overall decreased plant vigor. The adverse effects of
ozone on areas with sensitive species could potentially lead to species
shifts and loss from the affected ecosystems,\588\ resulting in a loss
or reduction in associated ecosystem goods and services. Additionally,
visible ozone injury to leaves can result in a loss of aesthetic value
in areas of special scenic significance like national parks and
wilderness areas and reduced use of sensitive ornamentals in
landscaping.\589\
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\584\ 73 FR 16486, March 27, 2008.
\585\ 73 FR 16491, March 27, 2008. Only a small percentage of
all the plant species growing within the U.S. (over 43,000 species
have been catalogued in the USDA PLANTS database) have been studied
with respect to ozone sensitivity.
\586\ The concentration at which ozone levels overwhelm a
plant's ability to detoxify or compensate for oxidant exposure
varies. Thus, whether a plant is classified as sensitive or tolerant
depends in part on the exposure levels being considered. Chapter 9,
Section 9.3.4 of U.S. EPA, 2013 Integrated Science Assessment for
Ozone and Related Photochemical Oxidants. Office of Research and
Development/National Center for Environmental Assessment. U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency. EPA 600/R-10/076F.
\587\ 73 FR 16492, March 27, 2008.
\588\ 73 FR 16493-16494, March 27, 2008, Ozone impacts could be
occurring in areas where plant species sensitive to ozone have not
yet been studied or identified.
\589\ 73 FR 16490-16497, March 27, 2008.
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The Integrated Science Assessment (ISA) for Ozone presents more
detailed information on how ozone effects vegetation and
ecosystems.\590\ The ISA concludes that ambient concentrations of ozone
are associated with a number of adverse welfare effects and
characterizes the weight of evidence for different effects associated
with ozone.\591\ The ISA concludes that visible foliar injury effects
on vegetation,
[[Page 40432]]
reduced vegetation growth, reduced productivity in terrestrial
ecosystems, reduced yield and quality of agricultural crops, and
alteration of below-ground biogeochemical cycles are causally
associated with exposure to ozone. It also concludes that reduced
carbon sequestration in terrestrial ecosystems, alteration of
terrestrial ecosystem water cycling, and alteration of terrestrial
community composition are likely to be causally associated with
exposure to ozone.
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\590\ U.S. EPA. Integrated Science Assessment of Ozone and
Related Photochemical Oxidants (Final Report). U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency, Washington, DC, EPA/600/R-10/076F, 2013. The ISA
is available at https://cfpub.epa.gov/ncea/isa/recordisplay.cfm?deid=247492#Download.
\591\ The Ozone ISA evaluates the evidence associated with
different ozone related health and welfare effects, assigning one of
five ``weight of evidence'' determinations: causal relationship,
likely to be a causal relationship, suggestive of a causal
relationship, inadequate to infer a causal relationship, and not
likely to be a causal relationship. For more information on these
levels of evidence, please refer to Table II of the ISA.
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(3) Atmospheric Deposition
Wet and dry deposition of ambient particulate matter delivers a
complex mixture of metals (e.g., mercury, zinc, lead, nickel, aluminum,
and cadmium), organic compounds (e.g., polycyclic organic matter,
dioxins, and furans) and inorganic compounds (e.g., nitrate, sulfate)
to terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. The chemical form of the
compounds deposited depends on a variety of factors including ambient
conditions (e.g., temperature, humidity, oxidant levels) and the
sources of the material. Chemical and physical transformations of the
compounds occur in the atmosphere as well as the media onto which they
deposit. These transformations in turn influence the fate,
bioavailability and potential toxicity of these compounds.
Adverse impacts to human health and the environment can occur when
particulate matter is deposited to soils, water, and biota.\592\
Deposition of heavy metals or other toxics may lead to the human
ingestion of contaminated fish, impairment of drinking water, damage to
terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystem components, and limits to
recreational uses. Atmospheric deposition has been identified as a key
component of the environmental and human health hazard posed by several
pollutants including mercury, dioxin and PCBs.\593\
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\592\ U.S. EPA. Integrated Science Assessment for Particulate
Matter (Final Report). U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,
Washington, DC, EPA/600/R-08/139F, 2009.
\593\ U.S. EPA. (2000). Deposition of Air Pollutants to the
Great Waters: Third Report to Congress. Office of Air Quality
Planning and Standards. EPA-453/R-00-0005.
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The ecological effects of acidifying deposition and nutrient
enrichment are detailed in the Integrated Science Assessment for Oxides
of Nitrogen and Sulfur-Ecological Criteria.\594\ Atmospheric deposition
of nitrogen and sulfur contributes to acidification, altering
biogeochemistry and affecting animal and plant life in terrestrial and
aquatic ecosystems across the United States. The sensitivity of
terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems to acidification from nitrogen and
sulfur deposition is predominantly governed by geology. Prolonged
exposure to excess nitrogen and sulfur deposition in sensitive areas
acidifies lakes, rivers and soils. Increased acidity in surface waters
creates inhospitable conditions for biota and affects the abundance and
biodiversity of fishes, zooplankton and macroinvertebrates and
ecosystem function. Over time, acidifying deposition also removes
essential nutrients from forest soils, depleting the capacity of soils
to neutralize future acid loadings and negatively affecting forest
sustainability. Major effects in forests include a decline in sensitive
tree species, such as red spruce (Picea rubens) and sugar maple (Acer
saccharum). In addition to the role nitrogen deposition plays in
acidification, nitrogen deposition also leads to nutrient enrichment
and altered biogeochemical cycling. In aquatic systems increased
nitrogen can alter species assemblages and cause eutrophication. In
terrestrial systems nitrogen loading can lead to loss of nitrogen
sensitive lichen species, decreased biodiversity of grasslands, meadows
and other sensitive habitats, and increased potential for invasive
species. For a broader explanation of the topics treated here, refer to
the description in Chapter 8.1.2.3 of the RIA.
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\594\ NOX and SOX secondary ISA\594\ U.S.
EPA. Integrated Science Assessment (ISA) for Oxides of Nitrogen and
Sulfur Ecological Criteria (Final Report). U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency, Washington, DC, EPA/600/R-08/082F, 2008.
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Building materials including metals, stones, cements, and paints
undergo natural weathering processes from exposure to environmental
elements (e.g., wind, moisture, temperature fluctuations, sunlight,
etc.). Pollution can worsen and accelerate these effects. Deposition of
PM is associated with both physical damage (materials damage effects)
and impaired aesthetic qualities (soiling effects). Wet and dry
deposition of PM can physically affect materials, adding to the effects
of natural weathering processes, by potentially promoting or
accelerating the corrosion of metals, by degrading paints and by
deteriorating building materials such as stone, concrete and
marble.\595\ The effects of PM are exacerbated by the presence of
acidic gases and can be additive or synergistic due to the complex
mixture of pollutants in the air and surface characteristics of the
material. Acidic deposition has been shown to have an effect on
materials including zinc/galvanized steel and other metal, carbonate
stone (as monuments and building facings), and surface coatings
(paints).\596\ The effects on historic buildings and outdoor works of
art are of particular concern because of the uniqueness and
irreplaceability of many of these objects.
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\595\ U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA). 2009.
Integrated Science Assessment for Particulate Matter (Final Report).
EPA-600-R-08-139F. National Center for Environmental Assessment--RTP
Division. December. Available on the Internet at <https://cfpub.epa.gov/ncea/cfm/recordisplay.cfm?deid=216546>.
\596\ Irving, P.M., e.d. 1991. Acid Deposition: State of Science
and Technology, Volume III, Terrestrial, Materials, Health, and
Visibility Effects, The U.S. National Acid Precipitation Assessment
Program, Chapter 24, page 24-76.
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(4) Environmental Effects of Air Toxics
Emissions from producing, transporting and combusting fuel
contribute to ambient levels of pollutants that contribute to adverse
effects on vegetation. Volatile organic compounds, some of which are
considered air toxics, have long been suspected to play a role in
vegetation damage.\597\ In laboratory experiments, a wide range of
tolerance to VOCs has been observed.\598\ Decreases in harvested seed
pod weight have been reported for the more sensitive plants, and some
studies have reported effects on seed germination, flowering and fruit
ripening. Effects of individual VOCs or their role in conjunction with
other stressors (e.g., acidification, drought, temperature extremes)
have not been well studied. In a recent study of a mixture of VOCs
including ethanol and toluene on herbaceous plants, significant effects
on seed production, leaf water content and photosynthetic efficiency
were reported for some plant species.\599\
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\597\ U.S. EPA. (1991). Effects of organic chemicals in the
atmosphere on terrestrial plants. EPA/600/3-91/001.
\598\ Cape JN, ID Leith, J Binnie, J Content, M Donkin, M
Skewes, DN Price AR Brown, AD Sharpe. (2003). Effects of VOCs on
herbaceous plants in an open-top chamber experiment. Environ.
Pollut. 124:341-343.
\599\ Cape JN, ID Leith, J Binnie, J Content, M Donkin, M
Skewes, DN Price AR Brown, AD Sharpe. (2003). Effects of VOCs on
herbaceous plants in an open-top chamber experiment. Environ.
Pollut. 124:341-343.
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Research suggests an adverse impact of vehicle exhaust on plants,
which has in some cases been attributed to aromatic compounds and in
other cases to nitrogen oxides.600 601 602
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\600\ Viskari E-L. (2000). Epicuticular wax of Norway spruce
needles as indicator of traffic pollutant deposition. Water, Air,
and Soil Pollut. 121:327-337.
\601\ Ugrekhelidze D, F Korte, G Kvesitadze. (1997). Uptake and
transformation of benzene and toluene by plant leaves. Ecotox.
Environ. Safety 37:24-29.
\602\ Kammerbauer H, H Selinger, R Rommelt, A Ziegler-Jons, D
Knoppik, B Hock. (1987). Toxic components of motor vehicle emissions
for the spruce Picea abies. Environ. Pollut. 48:235-243.
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[[Page 40433]]
D. Air Quality Impacts of Non-GHG Pollutants
(1) Current Concentrations of Non-GHG Pollutants
Nationally, levels of PM2.5, ozone, NOX,
SOX, CO and air toxics are declining.\603\ However, as of
July 2, 2014 approximately 147 million people lived in counties
designated nonattainment for one or more of the NAAQS, and this figure
does not include the people living in areas with a risk of exceeding
the NAAQS in the future.\604\ The most recent available data indicate
that the majority of Americans continue to be exposed to ambient
concentrations of air toxics at levels which have the potential to
cause adverse health effects.\605\ In addition, populations who live,
work, or attend school near major roads experience elevated exposure
concentrations to a wide range of air pollutants.\606\
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\603\ U.S. EPA, 2011. Our Nation's Air: Status and Trends
through 2010. EPA-454/R-12-001. February 2012. Available at: https://www.epa.gov/airtrends/2011/.
\604\ Data come from Summary Nonattainment Area Population
Exposure Report, current as of July 2, 2014 at: https://www.epa.gov/oar/oaqps/greenbk/popexp.html and contained in Docket EPA-HQ-OAR-
2014-0827.
\605\ U.S. EPA. (2011) Summary of Results for the 2005 National-
Scale Assessment. www.epa.gov/ttn/atw/nata2005/05pdf/sum_results.pdf.
\606\ Health Effects Institute Panel on the Health Effects of
Traffic-Related Air Pollution. (2010) Traffic-related air pollution:
a critical review of the literature on emissions, exposure, and
health effects. HEI Special Report 17. Available at https://www.healtheffects.org].
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EPA recognizes that states and local areas are particularly
concerned about the challenges of reducing NOX and attaining
as well as maintaining the ozone NAAQS. States and local areas are
required to adopt emission control measures to attain the NAAQS. States
may then choose to seek redesignation to attainment and if they do so
they must demonstrate that control measures are in place sufficient to
maintain the NAAQS for ten years (and eight years later, a similar
demonstration is required for another ten-year period). The most recent
revision to the ozone standards was in 2008; the previous 8-hour ozone
standards were set in 1997. Attaining and maintaining the NAAQS has
been challenging for some areas in the past, and EPA has recently
issued a proposal that would strengthen the ozone NAAQS (79 Fed. Reg
75,234, Dec. 17, 2014).
(2) Impacts of Proposed Standards on Future Ambient Concentrations of
Non-GHG Pollutants
Full-scale photochemical air quality modeling is necessary to
accurately project levels of criteria pollutants and air toxics. For
the final rulemaking, national-scale air quality modeling analyses will
be performed to analyze the impacts of the standards on
PM2.5, ozone, NO2, and selected air toxics (i.e.,
benzene, formaldehyde, acetaldehyde, naphthalene, acrolein and 1,3-
butadiene). The length of time needed to prepare the necessary
emissions inventories, in addition to the processing time associated
with the modeling itself, has precluded us from performing air quality
modeling for this proposal.
Section VIII.A of the preamble presents projections of the changes
in criteria pollutant and air toxics emissions due to the proposed
vehicle standards; the basis for those estimates is set out in Chapter
5 of the draft RIA. NHTSA also provides its projections in Chapter 4 of
its DEIS. The atmospheric chemistry related to ambient concentrations
of PM2.5, ozone and air toxics is very complex, and making
predictions based solely on emissions changes is extremely difficult.
However, based on the magnitude of the emissions changes predicted to
result from the proposed standards, the agencies expect that there will
be improvements in ambient air quality, pending more comprehensive
analyses for the final rulemaking.
For the final rulemaking national-scale air quality modeling
analyses will be performed to estimate future year ambient ozone,
NO2, and PM2.5 concentrations, air toxics
concentrations, visibility levels and nitrogen and sulfur deposition
levels for 2040. The agencies intend to use a 2011-based Community
Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling platform as the tool for the
air quality modeling. The CMAQ modeling system is a comprehensive
three-dimensional grid-based Eulerian air quality model designed to
estimate the formation and fate of oxidant precursors, primary and
secondary PM concentrations and deposition, and air toxics, over
regional and urban spatial scales (e.g., over the contiguous United
States).607 608 609 610 The CMAQ model is a well-known and
well-established tool and is commonly used by EPA for regulatory
analyses, by States in developing attainment demonstrations for their
State Implementation Plans, and in numerous other national and
international applications.611 612 613 614 The CMAQ model
version 5.0 was most recently peer-reviewed in September of 2011 for
the U.S. EPA.\615\ CMAQ includes numerous science modules that simulate
the emission, production, decay, deposition and transport of organic
and inorganic gas-phase and particle-phase pollutants in the
atmosphere. This 2011 multi-pollutant modeling platform used the most
recent multi-pollutant CMAQ code available at the time of air quality
modeling (CMAQ version 5.0.2; multipollutant version).\616\ CMAQ v5.0.2
reflects updates to version 5.0 to improve the underlying science
algorithms as well as include new diagnostic/scientific
[[Page 40434]]
modules which are detailed at https://www.cmascenter.org.617 618 619
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\607\ U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Byun, D.W., and
Ching, J.K.S., Eds, 1999. Science algorithms of EPA Models-3
Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ modeling system, EPA/600/R-
99/030, Office of Research and Development). Docket EPA-HQ-OAR-2010-
0162
\608\ Byun, D.W., and Schere, K.L., 2006. Review of the
Governing Equations, Computational Algorithms, and Other Components
of the Models-3 Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) Modeling
System, J. Applied Mechanics Reviews, 59 (2), 51-77. Docket EPA-HQ-
OAR-2010-0162
\609\ Dennis, R.L., Byun, D.W., Novak, J.H., Galluppi, K.J.,
Coats, C.J., and Vouk, M.A., 1996. The next generation of integrated
air quality modeling: EPA's Models-3, Atmospheric Environment, 30,
1925-1938. Docket EPA-HQ-OAR-2010-0162
\610\ Carlton, A., Bhave, P., Napelnok, S., Edney, E., Sarwar,
G., Pinder, R., Pouliot, G., and Houyoux, M. Model Representation of
Secondary Organic Aerosol in CMAQv4.7. Ahead of Print in
Environmental Science and Technology. Accessed at: https://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/es100636q?prevSearch=CMAQ&searchHistoryKey Docket EPA-HQ-OAR-2010-
0162.
\611\ U.S. EPA (2007). Regulatory Impact Analysis of the
Proposed Revisions to the National Ambient Air Quality Standards for
Ground-Level Ozone. EPA document number 442/R-07-008, July 2007.
Docket EPA-HQ-OAR-2010-0162
\612\ Hogrefe, C., Biswas, J., Lynn, B., Civerolo, K., Ku, J.Y.,
Rosenthal, J., et al. (2004). Simulating regional-scale ozone
climatology over the eastern United States: model evaluation
results. Atmospheric Environment, 38(17), 2627-2638.
\613\ United States Environmental Protection Agency. (2008).
Technical support document for the final locomotive/marine rule: Air
quality modeling analyses. Research Triangle Park, N.C.: U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning and
Standards, Air Quality Assessment Division.
\614\ Lin, M., Oki, T., Holloway, T., Streets, D.G., Bengtsson,
M., Kanae, S., (2008). Long range transport of acidifying substances
in East Asia Part I: Model evaluation and sensitivity studies.
Atmospheric Environment, 42(24), 5939-5955.
\615\ Brown, N., Allen, D., Amar, P., Kallos, G., McNider, R.,
Russell, A., Stockwell, W. (September 2011). Final Report: Fourth
Peer Review of the CMAQ Model, NERL/ORD/EPA. U.S. EPA, Research
Triangle Park, NC. https://www.epa.gov/asmdnerl/Reviews/2011_CMAQ_Review_FinalReport.pdf. It is available from the Community
Modeling and Analysis System (CMAS) as well as previous peer-review
reports at: https://www.cmascenter.org.
\616\ CMAQ version 5.0.2 was released in April 2014. It is
available from the Community Modeling and Analysis System (CMAS) Web
site: https://www.cmascenter.org.
\617\ Community Modeling and Analysis System (CMAS) Web site:
https://www.cmascenter.org, RELEASE_NOTES for CMAQv5.0--February
2012.
\618\ Community Modeling and Analysis System (CMAS) Web site:
https://www.cmascenter.org, RELEASE_NOTES for CMAQv5.0.1--July 2012.
\619\ Community Modeling and Analysis System (CMAS) Web site:
https://www.cmascenter.org. CMAQ version 5.0.2 (April 2014 release)
Technical Documentation.--May 2014.
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IX. Economic and Other Impacts
This section presents the costs, benefits and other economic
impacts of the proposed Phase 2 standards. It is important to note that
NHTSA's proposed fuel consumption standards and EPA's proposed GHG
standards would both be in effect, and each would lead to average fuel
efficiency increases and GHG emission reductions.
The net benefits of the proposed Phase 2 standards consist of the
effects of the program on:
The vehicle program costs (costs of complying with the
vehicle CO2 and fuel consumption standards),
changes in fuel expenditures associated with reduced fuel
use resulting from more efficient vehicles and increased fuel use
associated with the ``rebound'' effect, both of which result from the
program,
the economic value of reductions in GHGs,
the economic value of reductions in non-GHG pollutants,
costs associated with increases in noise, congestion, and
accidents resulting from increased vehicle use,
savings in drivers' time from less frequent refueling,
benefits of increased vehicle use associated with the
``rebound'' effect,
the economic value of improvements in U.S. energy
security.
The benefits and costs of these rules are analyzed using 3 percent
and 7 percent discount rates, consistent with current OMB
guidance.\620\ These rates are intended to represent consumers'
preference for current over future consumption (3 percent), and the
real rate of return on private investment (7 percent) which indicates
the opportunity cost of capital. However, neither of these rates
necessarily represents the discount rate that individual decision-
makers use.
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\620\ The range of Social Cost of Carbon (SC-CO2)
values uses several discount rates because the literature shows that
the SC-CO2 is quite sensitive to assumptions about the
discount rate, and because no consensus exists on the appropriate
rate to use in an intergenerational context (where costs and
benefits are incurred by different generations). Refer to Section
F.1 for more information.
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The program may also have other economic effects that are not
included here. The agencies seek comment on whether any costs or
benefits are omitted from this analysis, so that they can be explicitly
recognized in the final rules. In particular, as discussed in Sections
III through VI of this preamble and in Chapter 2 of the draft RIA, the
technology cost estimates developed here take into account the costs to
hold other vehicle attributes, such as size and performance, constant.
With these assumptions, and because welfare losses represent monetary
estimates of how much buyers would have to be compensated to be made as
well off as they would have been in the absence of this
regulation,\621\ price increases for new vehicles measure the welfare
losses to the vehicle buyers.\622\ If the full technology cost gets
passed along to the buyer as an increase in price, the technology cost
thus measures the primary welfare loss of the standards, including
impacts on buyers. Increasing fuel efficiency would have to lead to
other changes in the vehicles that buyers find undesirable for there to
be additional welfare losses that are not included in the technology
costs.
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\621\ This approach describes the economic concept of
compensating variation, a payment of money after a change that would
make a consumer as well off after the change as before it. A related
concept, equivalent variation, estimates the income change that
would be an alternative to the change taking place. The difference
between them is whether the consumer's point of reference is her
welfare before the change (compensating variation) or after the
change (equivalent variation). In practice, these two measures are
typically very close together.
\622\ Indeed, it is likely to be an overestimate of the loss to
the consumer, because the buyer has choices other than buying the
same vehicle with a higher price; she could choose a different
vehicle, or decide not to buy a new vehicle. The buyer would choose
one of those options only if the alternative involves less loss than
paying the higher price. Thus, the increase in price that the buyer
faces would be the upper bound of loss of consumer welfare, unless
there are other changes to the vehicle due to the fuel efficiency
improvements that make the vehicle less desirable to consumers.
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As the 2012-2016 and 2017-2025 light-duty GHG/CAFE rules discussed,
if other vehicle attributes are not held constant, then the technology
cost estimates do not capture the losses to vehicle buyers associated
with these changes.\623\ The light-duty rules also discussed other
potential issues that could affect the calculation of the welfare
impacts of these types of changes, such as aspects of buyers' behavior
that might affect the demand for technology investments, uncertainty in
buyers' investment horizons, and the rate at which truck owners trade
off higher vehicle purchase price against future fuel savings. The
agencies seek comments, including supporting data and quantitative
analyses, of any additional impacts of the proposed standards on
vehicle attributes and performance, or other potential aspects that
could positively or negatively affect the welfare implications of this
proposed rulemaking.
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\623\ Environmental Protection Agency and Department of
Transportation, ``Light-Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Emission
Standards and Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards; Final
Rule,'' 75 FR 25324, May 7, 2010, especially Sections III.H.1
(25510-25513) and IV.G.6 (25651-25657); Environmental Protection
Agency and Department of Transportation, ''2017 and Later Model Year
Light-Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Corporate Average
Fuel Economy Standards; Final Rule,'' 77 FR 62624, October 15, 2012,
especially Sections III.H.1 (62913-62919) and IV.G.5.a (63102-
63104).
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Where possible, we identify the uncertain aspects of these economic
impacts and attempt to quantify them (e.g., sensitivity ranges
associated with quantified and monetized GHG impacts; range of dollar-
per-ton values to monetize non-GHG health benefits; uncertainty with
respect to learning and markups). For HD pickups and vans, the agencies
explicitly analyzed the uncertainty surrounding its estimates of the
economic impacts from requiring higher fuel efficiency in Preamble
Section VI. The agencies have also examined the sensitivity of oil
prices on fuel expenditures; results of this sensitivity analysis can
be found in Chapter 8 of the RIA. NHTSA's draft EIS also characterizes
the uncertainty in economic impacts associated with the HD national
program. For other impacts, however, there is inadequate information to
inform a thorough, quantitative assessment of uncertainty. EPA and
NHTSA continue to work toward developing a comprehensive strategy for
characterizing the aggregate impact of uncertainty in key elements of
its analyses and we will continue to work to refine these uncertainty
analyses in the future as time and resources permit. The agencies seek
comments on the methods and assumptions used to quantify uncertainty in
this analysis, as well as comments on methods and data that might
inform relevant uncertainty analyses not quantified in this analysis.
This and other sections of the preamble address Section 317 of the
Clean Air Act on economic analysis. Section IX.L addresses Section 321
of the Clean Air Act on employment analysis. The total monetized
benefits and costs of the program are summarized in Section IX.K for
the preferred alternative and in Section X for all alternatives.
A. Conceptual Framework
The HD Phase 2 proposed standards would implement both the 2007
Energy Independence and Security Act requirement that NHTSA establish
fuel
[[Page 40435]]
efficiency standards for medium- and heavy-duty vehicles and the Clean
Air Act requirement that EPA adopt technology-based standards to
control pollutant emissions from motor vehicles and engines
contributing to air pollution that endangers public health and welfare.
NHTSA's statutory mandate is intended to further the agency's long-
standing goals of reducing U.S. consumption and imports of petroleum
energy to improve the nation's energy security.
From an economics perspective, government actions to improve our
nation's energy security and to protect our nation from the potential
threats of climate change address ``externalities,'' or economic
consequences of decisions by individuals and businesses that extend
beyond those who make these decisions. For example, users of
transportation fuels increase the entire U.S. economy's risk of having
to make costly adjustments due to rapid increases in oil prices, but
these users generally do not consider such costs when they decide to
consume more fuel.
Similarly, consuming transportation fuel also increases emissions
of greenhouse gases and other more localized air pollutants that occur
when fuel is refined, distributed, and consumed. Some of these
emissions increase the likelihood and severity of potential climate-
related economic damages, and others cause economic damages by
adversely affecting human health. The need to address these external
costs and other adverse effects provides a well-established economic
rationale that supports the statutory direction given to government
agencies to establish regulatory programs that reduce the magnitude of
these adverse effects at reasonable costs.
The proposed Phase 2 standards would require manufacturers of new
heavy-duty vehicles, including trailers (HDVs), to improve the fuel
efficiency of the products that they produce. As HDV users purchase and
operate these new vehicles, they would consume significantly less fuel,
in turn reducing U.S. petroleum consumption and imports as well as
emissions of GHGs and other air pollutants. Thus, as a consequence of
the agencies' efforts to meet our statutory obligations to improve U.S.
energy security and EPA's obligation to issue standards ``to regulate
emissions of the deleterious pollutant . . . from motor vehicles'' that
endangers public health and welfare,\624\ the proposed fuel efficiency
and GHG emission standards would also reduce HDV operators' outlays for
fuel purchases. These fuel savings are one measure of the proposed
rule's effectiveness in promoting NHTSA's statutory goal of conserving
energy, as well as EPA's obligation to assess the cost of standards
under section 202(a)(1) and (2) of the Clean Air Act. Although these
savings are not the agencies' primary motivation for adopting higher
fuel efficiency standards, these substantial fuel savings represent
significant additional economic benefits of this proposal.
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\624\ State of Massachusetts v. EPA, 549 U.S. at 533.
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Potential savings in fuel costs would appear to offer HDV buyers
strong incentives to pay higher prices for vehicles that feature
technology or equipment that reduces fuel consumption. These potential
savings would also appear to offer HDV manufacturers similarly strong
incentives to produce more fuel-efficient vehicles. Economic theory
suggests that interactions between vehicle buyers and sellers in a
normally-functioning competitive market would lead HDV manufacturers to
incorporate all technologies that contribute to lower net costs into
the vehicles they offer, and buyers to purchase them willingly.
Nevertheless, many readily available technologies that appear to offer
cost-effective increases in HDV fuel efficiency (when evaluated over
their expected lifetimes using conventional discount rates) have not
been widely adopted, despite their potential to repay buyers' initial
investments rapidly.
This economic situation is commonly known as the ``energy
efficiency gap'' or ``energy paradox.'' This situation is perhaps more
challenging to understand with respect to the heavy-duty sector versus
the light-duty vehicle sector. Unlike light-duty vehicles--which are
purchased and used mainly by individuals and households--the vast
majority of HDVs are purchased and operated by profit-seeking
businesses for which fuel costs represent a substantial operating
expense. Nevertheless, on the basis of evidence reviewed below, the
agencies believe that a significant number of fuel efficiency improving
technologies would remain far less widely adopted in the absence of
these proposed standards.
Economic research offers several possible explanations for why the
prospect of these apparent savings might not lead HDV manufacturers and
buyers to adopt technologies that would be expected to reduce HDV
operating costs. Some of these explanations involve failures of the HDV
market for reasons other than the externalities caused by producing and
consuming fuel. These include situations where information about the
performance of fuel economy technologies is incomplete, costly to
obtain, or available only to one party to a transaction (or
``asymmetrical''), as well as behavioral rigidities in either the HDV
manufacturing or HDV-operating industries, such as standardized or
inflexibly administered operating procedures, or requirements of other
regulations on HDVs. Other explanations for the limited use of
apparently cost-effective technologies that do not involve market
failures include HDV operators' concerns about the performance,
reliability, or maintenance requirements of new technology under the
demands of everyday use, uncertainty about the fuel savings they will
actually realize, and questions about possible effects on carrying
capacity or other aspects of HDVs' utility.
In the HD Phase 1 rulemaking (which, in contrast to these proposed
standards, did not apply to trailers), the agencies raised five
hypotheses that might explain this energy efficiency gap or paradox:
Imperfect information in the new vehicle market:
Information available to prospective buyers about the effectiveness of
some fuel-saving technologies for new vehicles may be inadequate or
unreliable. If reliable information on their effectiveness in reducing
fuel consumption is unavailable or difficult to obtain, HDV buyers will
understandably be reluctant to pay higher prices to purchase vehicles
equipped with unproven technologies.
Imperfect information in the resale market: Buyers in the
used vehicle market may not be willing to pay adequate premiums for
more fuel efficient vehicles when they are offered for resale to ensure
that buyers of new vehicles can recover the remaining value of their
original investment in higher fuel efficiency. The prospect of an
inadequate return on their original owners' investments in higher fuel
efficiency may contribute to the short payback periods that buyers of
new vehicles appear to demand.\625\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\625\ Committee to Assess Fuel Economy Technologies for Medium-
and Heavy-Duty Vehicles; National Research Council; Transportation
Research Board (2010). ``Technologies and Approaches to Reducing the
Fuel Consumption of Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicles,'' (hereafter,
``NAS 2010''). Washington, DC. The National Academies Press.
Available electronically from the National Academies Press Web site
at https://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=12845 (accessed
September 10, 2010).
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[[Page 40436]]
Principal-agent problems causing split incentives: An HDV
buyer may not be directly responsible for its future fuel costs, or the
individual who will be responsible for fuel costs may not participate
in the HDV purchase decision. In these cases, the signal to invest in
higher fuel efficiency normally provided by savings in fuel costs may
not be transmitted effectively to HDV buyers, and the incentives of HDV
buyers and fuel buyers will diverge, or be ``split.'' The trailers
towed by heavy-duty tractors, which are typically not supplied by the
tractor manufacturer or seller, present an obvious potential situation
of split incentives that was not addressed in the HD Phase 1
rulemaking, but it may apply in this rulemaking. If there is inadequate
pass-through of price signals from trailer users to their buyers, then
low adoption of fuel-saving technologies may result.
Uncertainty about future fuel cost savings: HDV buyers may
be uncertain about future fuel prices, or about maintenance costs and
reliability of some fuel efficiency technologies. Buyers may react to
this uncertainty by implicitly discounting potential future savings at
rates above discount rates used in this analysis. In contrast, the
costs of fuel-saving or maintenance-reducing technologies are immediate
and thus not subject to discounting. In this situation, potential
variability about buyers' expected returns on capital investments to
achieve higher fuel efficiency may shorten the payback period--the time
required to repay those investments--they demand in order to make them.
Adjustment and transactions costs: Potential resistance to
new technologies--stemming, for example, from drivers' reluctance or
slowness to adjust to changes in the way vehicles operate--may slow or
inhibit new technology adoption. If a conservative approach to new
technologies leads HDV buyers to adopt them slowly, then successful new
technologies would be adopted over time without market intervention,
but only with potentially significant delays in achieving the fuel
saving, environmental, and energy security benefits they offer. There
also may be costs associated with training drivers to realize potential
fuel savings enabled by new technologies, or with accelerating fleet
operators' scheduled fleet turnover and replacement to hasten their
acquisition of vehicles equipped with these technologies.
Some of these explanations imply failures in the private market for
fuel-saving technology beyond the externalities caused by producing and
consuming fuel, while others suggest that complications in valuing or
adapting to technologies that reduce fuel consumption may partly
explain buyers' hesitance to purchase more fuel-efficient vehicles. In
either case, adopting this proposed rule would provide regulatory
certainty and generate important economic benefits in addition to
reducing externalities.
Since the HD Phase 1 rulemaking, new research has provided further
insight into potential barriers to adoption of fuel-saving
technologies. Several studies utilized focus groups and interviews
involving small numbers of participants, who were people with time and
inclination to join such studies, rather than selected at random.\626\
As a result, the information from these groups is not necessarily
representative of the industry as a whole. While these studies cannot
provide conclusive evidence about how all HDV buyers make their
decisions, they do describe issues that arise for those that
participated.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\626\ Klemick, Heather, Elizabeth Kopits, Keith Sargent, and Ann
Wolverton (2014). ``Heavy-Duty Trucking and the Energy Efficiency
Paradox.'' US EPA NCEE Working Paper Series. Working Paper 14-02;
Roeth, Mike, Dave Kircher, Joel Smith, and Rob Swim (2013).
``Barriers to the Increased Adoption of Fuel Efficiency Technologies
in the North American On-Road Freight Sector.'' NACFE report for the
International Council on Clean Transportation; Aarnink, Sanne,
Jasper Faber, and Eelco den Boer (2012). ``Market Barriers to
Increased Efficiency in the European On-road Freight Sector.'' CE
Delft report for the International Council on Clean Transportation.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
One common theme that emerges from these studies is the inability
of HDV buyers to obtain reliable information about the fuel savings,
reliability, and maintenance costs of technologies that improve fuel
efficiency. In many product markets, such as consumer electronics,
credible reviews and tests of product performance are readily available
to potential buyers. In the trucking industry, however, the performance
of fuel-saving technology is likely to depend on many firm-specific
attributes, including the intensity of HDV use, the typical distance
and routing of HDV trips, driver characteristics, road conditions,
regional geography and traffic patterns.
As a result, businesses that operate HDVs have strong preferences
for testing fuel-saving technologies ``in-house'' because they are
concerned that their patterns of vehicle use may lead to different
results from those reported in published information. Businesses with
less capability to do in-house testing often seek information from
peers, yet often remain skeptical of its applicability due to
differences in the nature of their operations. One source of imperfect
information is the lack of availability of certain technologies from
preferred suppliers. HDV buyers often prefer to have technology or
equipment installed by their favored original equipment manufacturers.
However, some technologies may not be available through these preferred
sources, or may be available only as after-market installations from
third parties (Aarnink et al. 2012, Roeth et al. 2013).
Although these studies appear to show that information in the new
HDV market is often limited or viewed as unreliable, the evidence for
imperfect information in the market for used HDVs is mixed. On the one
hand, some studies noted that fuel-saving technology is often not
valued or demanded in the used vehicle market, because of imperfect
information about its benefits, or greater mistrust of its performance
among buyers in the used vehicle market than among buyers of new
vehicles. The lack of demand might also be due to the intended use of
the used HDV, which may not require or reward the presence of certain
fuel-saving technologies. In other cases, however, fuel-saving
technology can lead to a premium in the used market, as for instance to
meet the more stringent requirements for HDVs operating in California.
All of the recent research identifies split incentives, or
principal-agent problems, as a potential barrier to technology
adoption. These occur when those responsible for investment decisions
are different from the main beneficiaries of the technology. For
instance, businesses that own and lease trailers to HDV operators may
not have an incentive to invest in trailer-specific fuel-saving
technology, since they do not collect the savings from the lower fuel
costs that result. Vernon and Meier (2012) estimate that 23 percent of
trailers may be exposed to this kind of principal-agent problem,
although they do not quantify its financial significance.\627\
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\627\ Vernon, David and Alan Meier (2012). ``Identification and
quantification of principal-agent problems affecting energy
efficiency investments and use decisions in the trucking industry.''
Energy Policy, 49(C), pp. 266-273.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Split incentives can also exist when the HDV driver is not
responsible for paying fuel costs. Some technologies require additional
effort, training, or changes in driving behavior to achieve their
promised fuel savings; drivers who do not pay for fuel may be reluctant
to undertake those changes, thus reducing the fuel-saving benefits from
the perspective of the individual or company paying for the fuel. For
[[Page 40437]]
instance, drivers might not consistently deploy boat-tails equipped on
trailers to improve vehicle aerodynamics.\628\ Vernon and Meier also
calculate that 91 percent of HDV fuel use is subject to this form of
principal-agent problem, although they do not estimate how much it
might reduce fuel savings to those who are paying for the fuel.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\628\ Some boat-tails are being developed with technology to
open them automatically when the trailer reaches a suitable speed,
to reduce this problem.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
The studies based on focus groups and interviews (Klemick et al.
2013, Aarnink et al. 2012, Roeth et al. 2013) provide mixed evidence on
the severity of the split-incentive problem. Focus groups often do
identify diverging incentives between drivers and the decision-makers
responsible for purchasing vehicles, and economics literature
recognizes that this split incentive can be a barrier to adopting new
technology. Aarnink et al. (2012) and Roeth et al. (2013) cite examples
of split incentives involving trailers and fuel surcharges, although
the latter also cites other examples where these same issues do not
lead to split incentives.
In an effort to minimize problems that can arise from split
incentives, many businesses that operate HDVs also train drivers in the
use of specific technologies or to modify their driving behavior in
order to improve fuel efficiency, while some also offer financial
incentives to their drivers to conserve fuel. All of these options can
help to reduce the split incentive problem, although they may not be
effective where it arises from different ownership of combination
tractors and trailers.
Uncertainty about future costs for fuel and maintenance, or about
the reliability of new technology, also appears to be a significant
obstacle that can slow the adoption of fuel-saving technologies. These
examples illustrate the problem of uncertain or unreliable information
about the actual performance of fuel efficiency technology discussed
above. In addition, businesses that operate HDVs may be concerned about
how reliable new technologies will prove to be on the road, and whether
significant additional maintenance costs or equipment malfunctions that
result in costly downtime could occur. Roeth et al. (2013) and Klemick
et al. (2013) both document the short payback periods that HDV buyers
require on their investments--usually about 2 years--which may be
partly attributable to these uncertainties.
These studies also provide some support for the view that
adjustment and transactions costs may impede HDV buyers from investing
in higher fuel efficiency. As discussed above, several studies note
that HDV buyers are less likely to select new technology when it is not
available from their preferred manufacturers. Some technologies are
only available as after-market additions, which can add other costs to
adopting them.
Some studies also cite driver acceptance of new equipment or
technologies as a barrier to their adoption. HDV driver turnover is
high in the U.S., and businesses that operate HDVs are concerned about
retaining their best drivers. Therefore, they may avoid technologies
that require significant new training or adjustments in driver
behavior. For some technologies that can be used to meet the proposed
standards, such as automatic tire inflation systems, training costs are
likely to be minimal. Other technologies such as stop-start systems,
however, may require drivers to adjust their expectations about vehicle
operation, and it is difficult for the agencies to anticipate how
drivers will respond to such changes.\629\
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\629\ The distinction between simply requiring drivers (or
mechanics) to adjust their expectations and compromises in vehicle
performance or utility is subtle. While the former may not impose
significant compliance costs in the long run, the latter would
represent additional economic costs of complying with the standard.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
In addition to these factors, the studies considered other possible
explanations for HDV buyers' apparent reluctance or slowness to invest
in fuel-saving equipment or technology. Financial constraints--access
to lending sources willing to finance purchases of more expensive
vehicles--do not appear to be a problem for the medium- and large-sized
businesses participating in Klemick et al.'s (2013) study. However,
Roeth et al. (2013) noted that access to capital can be a significant
challenge to smaller or independent businesses, and that price is
always a concern to buyers. In general, businesses that operate HDVs
face a range of competing uses for available capital other than
investing in fuel-saving technologies, and may assign higher priority
to these other uses, even when investing in higher fuel efficiency HDVs
appears to promise adequate financial returns.
Other potentially important barriers to the adoption of measures
that improve fuel efficiency may arise from ``network externalities,''
where the benefits to new users of a technology depend on how many
others have already adopted it. One example where network externalities
seem likely to arise is the market for natural gas-fueled HDVs: The
limited availability of refueling stations may reduce potential buyers'
willingness to purchase natural gas-fueled HDVs, while the small number
of such HDVs in-use does not provide sufficient economic incentive to
construct more natural gas refueling stations.
Some businesses that operate HDVs may also be concerned about the
difficulty in locating repair facilities or replacement parts, such as
single-wide tires, wherever their vehicles operate. When a technology
has been widely adopted, then it is likely to be serviceable even in
remote or rural places, but until it becomes widely available, its
early adopters may face difficulties with repairs or replacements. By
accelerating the widespread adoption of these technologies, the
proposed standards may assist in overcoming these difficulties.
As discussed previously, the lack of availability of fuel-saving
technologies from preferred manufactures can also be a significant
barrier to adoption (Roeth et al. 2013). Manufacturers may be hesitant
to offer technologies for which there is not strong demand, especially
if the technologies require significant research and development
expenses and other costs of bringing the technology to a market of
uncertain demand.
Roeth et al. (2013) also noted that it can take years, and
sometimes as much as a decade, for a specific technology to become
available from all manufacturers. Many manufacturers prefer to observe
the market and follow other manufacturers rather than be the first to
market with a specific technology. The ``first-mover disadvantage'' has
been recognized in other research where the ``first-mover'' pays a
higher proportion of the costs of developing technology, but loses the
long-term advantage when other businesses follow quickly.\630\ In this
way, there may be barriers to innovation on the supply side that result
in lower adoption rates of fuel-efficiency technology than would be
optimal.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\630\ Blumstein, Carl and Margaret Taylor (2013). ``Rethinking
the Energy-Efficiency Gap: Producers, Intermediaries, and
Innovation,'' Energy Institute at Haas Working Paper 243, University
of California at Berkeley; Tirole, Jean (1998). The Theory of
Industrial Organization. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, pp.400, 402. This
first-mover disadvantage must large enough to overcome the incentive
normally offered by the potential to for first movers to earn
unusually high (but temporary) profit levels.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
In summary, the agencies recognize that businesses that operate
HDVs are under competitive pressure to reduce operating costs, which
should compel
[[Page 40438]]
HDV buyers to identify and rapidly adopt cost-effective fuel-saving
technologies. Outlays for labor and fuel generally constitute the two
largest shares of HDV operating costs, depending on the price of fuel,
distance traveled, type of HDV, and commodity transported (if any), so
businesses that operate HDVs face strong incentives to reduce these
costs.631 632
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\631\ American Transportation Research Institute, An Analysis of
the Operational Costs of Trucking, September 2013 (Docket ID: EPA-
HQ-OAR-2014-0827).
\632\ Transport Canada, Operating Cost of Trucks, 2005. See
https://www.tc.gc.ca/eng/policy/report-acg-operatingcost2005-2005-e-2-1727.htm, accessed on July 16, 2010 (Docket ID: EPA-HQ-OAR-2014-
0827).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
However, the short payback periods that buyers of new HDVs appear
to require suggest that some combination of uncertainty about future
cost savings, transactions costs, and imperfectly functioning markets
impedes this process. Markets for both new and used HDVs may face these
problems, although it is difficult to assess empirically the degree to
which they actually do. Even if the benefits from widespread adoption
of fuel-saving technologies exceed their costs, their use may remain
limited or spread slowly because their early adopters bear a
disproportionate share of those costs. In this case, the proposed
standards may help to overcome such barriers by ensuring that these
measures would be widely adopted.
Providing information about fuel-saving technologies, offering
incentives for their adoption, and sharing HDV operators' real-world
experiences with their performance through voluntary programs such as
EPA's SmartWay Transport Partnership should assist in the adoption of
new cost-saving technologies. Nevertheless, other barriers that impede
the diffusion of new technologies are likely to remain. Buyers who are
willing to experiment with new technologies expect to find cost
savings, but those savings may be difficult to verify or replicate. As
noted previously, because benefits from employing these technologies
are likely to vary with the characteristics of individual routes and
traffic patterns, buyers of new HDVs may find it difficult to identify
or verify the effects of fuel-saving technologies in their operations.
Risk-averse buyers may also avoid new technologies out of concerns over
the possibility of inadequate returns on their investments, or with
other possible adverse impacts.
Some HDV manufacturers may delay in investing in the development
and production of new technologies, instead waiting for other
manufacturers to bear the risks of those investments first. Competitive
pressures in the HDV freight transport industry can provide a strong
incentive to reduce fuel consumption and improve environmental
performance. However, not every HDV operator has the requisite ability
or interest to access and utilize the technical information, or the
resources necessary to evaluate this information within the context of
his or her own operations.
As discussed previously, whether the technologies available to
improve HDVs' fuel efficiency would be adopted widely in the absence of
the program is challenging to assess. To the extent that these
technologies would be adopted in its absence, neither their costs nor
their benefits would be attributed to the program. To account for this
possibility, the agencies analyzed the proposed standards and the
regulatory alternatives against two reference cases, or baselines, as
described in Section X.
The first case uses a baseline that projects some improvement in
fuel efficiency for new trailers, but no improvement in fuel efficiency
for other vehicle segments in the absence of new Phase 2 standards.
This first case is referred to as the less dynamic baseline, or
Alternative 1a. The second case uses a baseline that projects some
improvement in vehicle fuel efficiency for tractors, trailers, pickup
trucks, and vans but not for vocational vehicles. This second case is
referred to as the more dynamic baseline, or Alternative 1b.
The agencies will continue to explore reasons for the slow adoption
of readily available and apparently cost-effective technologies for
improving fuel efficiency. We also seek comments on our hypotheses
about its causes, as well as data or other information that can inform
our understanding of why this situation seems to persist.
B. Vehicle-Related Costs Associated With the Program
(1) Technology Cost Methodology
(a) Direct Manufacturing Costs
The direct manufacturing costs (DMCs) used throughout this analysis
are derived from several sources. Many of the tractor, vocational and
trailer DMCs can be sourced to the Phase 1 rule which, in turn, were
sourced largely from a contracted study by ICF International for
EPA.\633\ We have updated those costs by converting them to 2012
dollars, as described in Section IX.B.1.e below, and by continuing the
learning effects described in the Phase 1 rule and in Section IX.B.1.c
below. The new tractor, vocational and trailer costs can be sourced to
a more recent study conducted by Tetra Tech under contract to
NHTSA.\634\ The cost methodology used by Tetra Tech was to estimate
retail costs and work backward from there to derive a DMC for each
technology. The agencies did not agree with the approach used by Tetra
Tech to move from retail cost to DMC as the approach was to simply
divide retail costs by 2 and use the result as a DMC. Our research,
discussed below, suggests that a divisor of 2 is too high. Therefore,
where we have used a Tetra Tech derived retail estimate, we have
divided by our researched markups to arrive at many of the DMCs used in
this analysis. In this way, the agencies have used an approach
consistent with past GHG/CAFE/fuel consumption rules by dividing
estimated retail prices by our estimated retail price equivalent (RPE)
markups to derive an appropriate DMC for each technology. We describe
our RPEs in Section IX.B.1.b, below.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\633\ ICF International. Investigation of Costs for Strategies
to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions for Heavy-Duty On-Road Vehicles.
July 2010.
\634\ Schubert, R., Chan, M., Law, K. (2015). Commercial Medium-
and Heavy-Duty (MD/HD) Truck Fuel Efficiency Cost Study. Washington,
DC: National Highway Traffic Safety Administration.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
For HD pickups and vans, we have relied primarily on the Phase 1
rule and the recent light-duty 2017-2025 model year rule since most
technologies expected on these vehicles are, in effect, the same as
those used on light-duty pickups. Many of those technology DMCs are
based on cost teardown studies which the agencies consider to be the
most robust method of cost estimation. However, because most of the HD
versions of those technologies are expected to be more costly than
their light-duty counterparts, we have scaled upward most of the light-
duty DMCs for this analysis. We have also used some costs developed
under contract to NHTSA by Tetra Tech.\635\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\635\ Schubert, R., Chan, M., Law, K. (2015). Commercial Medium-
and Heavy-Duty (MD/HD) Truck Fuel Efficiency Cost Study. Washington,
DC: National Highway Traffic Safety Administration.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Importantly, in our methodology, all technologies are treated as
being sourced from a supplier rather than being developed and produced
in-house. As a result, some portion of the total indirect costs of
making a technology or system--those costs incurred by the supplier for
research, development, transportation, marketing etc.--are contained in
the sales price to the engine and/or vehicle/trailer manufacturer
(i.e., the original equipment manufacturer (OEM)). That
[[Page 40439]]
sale price paid by the OEM to the supplier is the DMC we estimate.
We present the details--sources, DMC values, scaling from light-
duty values, markups, learning effects, adoption rates--behind all our
costs in Chapter 2 of the draft RIA.
(b) Indirect Costs
To produce a unit of output, engine and truck manufacturers incur
direct and indirect costs. Direct costs include cost of materials and
labor costs. Indirect costs are all the costs associated with producing
the unit of output that are not direct costs--for example, they may be
related to production (such as research and development [R&D]),
corporate operations (such as salaries, pensions, and health care costs
for corporate staff), or selling (such as transportation, dealer
support, and marketing). Indirect costs are generally recovered by
allocating a share of the costs to each unit of good sold. Although it
is possible to account for direct costs allocated to each unit of good
sold, it is more challenging to account for indirect costs allocated to
a unit of goods sold. To make a cost analysis process more feasible,
markup factors, which relate total indirect costs to total direct
costs, have been developed. These factors are often referred to as
retail price equivalent (RPE) multipliers.
While the agencies have traditionally used RPE multipliers to
estimate indirect costs, in recent GHG/CAFE/fuel consumption rules RPEs
have been replaced in the primary analysis with indirect cost
multipliers (ICMs). ICMs differ from RPEs in that they attempt to
estimate not all indirect costs incurred to bring a product to point of
sale, but only those indirect costs that change as a result of a
government action or regulatory requirement. As such, some indirect
costs, notably health and retirement benefits of retired employees,
among other indirect costs, would not be expected to change due to a
government action and, therefore, the portion of the RPE that covered
those costs does not change.
Further, the ICM is not a ``one-size-fits-all'' markup as is the
traditional RPE. With ICMs, higher complexity technologies like
hybridization or moving from a manual to automatic transmission may
require higher indirect costs--more research and development, more
integration work, etc.--suggesting a higher markup. Conversely, lower
complexity technologies like reducing friction or adding passive aero
features may require fewer indirect costs thereby suggesting a lower
markup.
Notably, ICMs are also not a simple multiplier as are traditional
RPEs. The ICM is broken into two parts--warranty related and non-
warranty related costs. The warranty related portion of the ICM is
relatively small while the non-warranty portion represents typically
over 95 percent of indirect costs. These two portions are applied to
different DMC values to arrive at total costs (TC). The warranty
portion of the markup is applied to a DMC that decreases year-over-year
due to learning effects (described below in Section IX.B.1.c).\636\ As
learning effects decrease the DMC with production volumes, it makes
sense that warranty costs would decrease since those parts replaced
under warranty should be less costly. In contrast, the non-warranty
portion of the markup is applied to a static DMC year-over-year
resulting in static indirect costs. This is logical since the
production plants and transportation networks and general overhead
required to build parts, market them, deliver them and integrate them
into vehicles do not necessarily decrease in cost year-over-year.
Because the warranty and non-warranty portions of the ICM are applied
differently, one cannot compare the markup itself to the RPE to
determine which markup would result in higher indirect cost estimates,
at least in the time periods typically considered in our rules (four to
ten years).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\636\ We note that the labor portion of warranty repairs does
not decrease due to learning. However, we do not have data to
separate this portion and so we apply learning to the entire
warranty cost. Because warranty costs are a small portion of overall
indirect costs, this has only a minor impact on the analysis.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
The agencies are concerned that some potential costs associated
with this rulemaking may not be adequately captured by our ICMs. ICMs
are estimated based on a few specific technologies and these
technologies may not be representative of the changes actually made to
meet the proposed requirements. Specifically, we may not have
adequately estimated the costs for accelerated R&D or potential
reliability issues with advanced technologies required by Alternative
4. There is a great deal of uncertainty regarding these costs, and this
makes estimates for this alternative of particular concern. We request
comment on that aspect of our estimates and on all aspects of our
indirect cost estimation approach.
We provide more details on our ICM approach and the markups used
for each technology in Chapter 2.12 of the draft RIA.
(c) Learning Effects on Direct and Indirect Costs
For some of the technologies considered in this analysis,
manufacturer learning effects would be expected to play a role in the
actual end costs. The ``learning curve'' or ``experience curve''
describes the reduction in unit production costs as a function of
accumulated production volume. In theory, the cost behavior it
describes applies to cumulative production volume measured at the level
of an individual manufacturer, although it is often assumed--as both
agencies have done in past regulatory analyses--to apply at the
industry-wide level, particularly in industries that utilize many
common technologies and component supply sources. Both agencies believe
there are indeed many factors that cause costs to decrease over time.
Research in the costs of manufacturing has consistently shown that, as
manufacturers gain experience in production, they are able to apply
innovations to simplify machining and assembly operations, use lower
cost materials, and reduce the number or complexity of component parts.
All of these factors allow manufacturers to lower the per-unit cost of
production (i.e., the manufacturing learning curve).\637\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\637\ See ``Learning Curves in Manufacturing'', L. Argote and D.
Epple, Science, Volume 247; ``Toward Cost Buy down Via Learning-by-
Doing for Environmental Energy Technologies, R. Williams, Princeton
University, Workshop on Learning-by-Doing in Energy Technologies,
June 2003; ``Industry Learning Environmental and the Heterogeneity
of Firm Performance, N. Balasubramanian and M. Lieberman, UCLA
Anderson School of Management, December 2006, Discussion Papers,
Center for Economic Studies, Washington DC.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
In this analysis, the agencies are using the same approach to
learning as done in past GHG/CAFE/fuel consumption rules. In short,
learning effects result in rapid cost reductions in the early years
following introduction of a new technology. The agencies have estimated
those cost reductions as resulting in 20 percent lower costs for every
doubling of production volume. As production volumes increase, learning
rates continue at the same pace but flatten asymptotically due to the
nature of the persistent doubling of production required to realize
that cost reduction. As such, the cost reductions flatten out as
production volumes continue to increase. Consistent with the Phase 1
rule, we refer to these two distinct portions of the ``learning cost
reduction curve'' or ``learning curve'' as the steeper and flatter
portions of the curve. On that steep portion of the curve, costs are
estimated to decrease by
[[Page 40440]]
20 percent for each double of production or, by proxy, in the third and
then fifth year of production following introduction. On the flat
portion of the curve, costs are estimated to decrease by 3 percent per
year for 5 years, then 2 percent per year for 5 years, then 1 percent
per year for 5 years. Also consistent with the Phase 1 rule, the
majority of the technologies we expect would be adopted are considered
to be on the flat portion of the learning curve meaning that the 20
percent cost reductions are rarely applied. The agencies request
comment on this approach to estimating these effects, and request that
commenters provide data and forward-looking information to support any
alternative methods or specific estimates.
We provide more details on the concept of learning-by-doing and the
learning effects applied in this analysis in Chapter 2 of the draft
RIA.
(d) Technology Adoption Rates and Developing Package Costs
Determining the stringency of the proposed standards involves a
balancing of relevant factors--chiefly technology feasibility and
effectiveness, costs, and lead time. For vocational vehicles, tractors
and trailers, the agencies have projected a technology path to achieve
the proposed standards reflecting an application rate of those
technologies the agencies consider to be available at reasonable cost
in the lead times provided. The agencies do not expect each of the
technologies for which costs have been developed to be employed by all
trucks and trailers across the board. Further, many of today's vehicles
are already equipped with some of the technologies and/or are expected
to adopt them by MY2018 to comply with the HD Phase 1 standards.
Estimated adoption rates in both the reference and control cases are
necessary for each vehicle/trailer category. The adoption rates for
most technologies are zero in the reference case; however, for some
technologies--notably aero and tire technologies--the adoption rate is
not zero in the reference case. These reference and control case
adoption rates are then applied to the technology costs with the result
being a package cost for each vehicle/trailer category.
For HD pickups and vans, the CAFE model determines the technology
adoption rates that most cost effectively meet the standards being
proposed. Similar to vocational vehicles, tractors and trailers,
package costs are rarely if ever a simple sum of all the technology
costs since each technology would be expected to be adopted at
different rates. The methods for estimating technology adoption rates
and resultant costs (and other impacts) for HD pickups and vans are
discussed above in Section 6.
We provide details of expected adoption rates in Chapter 2 of the
draft RIA. We present package costs both in Sections III through VI of
this preamble and in more detail in Chapter 2 of the draft RIA.
(e) Conversion of Technology Costs to 2012 U.S. Dollars
As noted above in Section IX.B.1, the agencies are using technology
costs from many different sources. These sources, having been published
in different years, present costs in different year dollars (i.e., 2009
dollars or 2010 dollars). For this analysis, the agencies sought to
have all costs in terms of 2012 dollars to be consistent with the
dollars used by AEO in its 2014 Annual Energy Outlook.\638\ The
agencies have used the GDP Implicit Price Deflator for Gross Domestic
Product as the converter, with the actual factors used as shown in
Table IX-1.\639\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\638\ U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy
Outlook 2014, Early Release; Report Number DOE/EIA-0383ER (2014),
December 16, 2013.
\639\ Bureau of Economic Analysis, Table 1.1.9 Implicit Price
Deflators for Gross Domestic Product; as revised on March 27, 2014.
Table IX-1--Implicit Price Deflators and Conversion Factors for Conversion to 2012$
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Price index for GDP............................................. 94.818 97.335 99.236 100 101.211 103.199 105.002 106.588
Factor applied for 2012$........................................ 1.107 1.079 1.058 1.050 1.037 1.017 1.000 0.985
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(2) Compliance Program Costs
The agencies have also estimated additional and/or new compliance
costs associated with the proposed standards. Normally, compliance
program costs would be considered part of the indirect costs and,
therefore, would be accounted for via the markup applied to direct
manufacturing costs. However, since the agencies are proposing new
compliance elements that were not present during development of the
indirect cost markups used in this analysis, additional compliance
program costs are being accounted for via a separate ``line-item.'' New
research and development costs (see below) are being handled in the
same way.
The new compliance program elements included in this proposal are
new powertrain testing within the vocational vehicle program, and an
all-new compliance program where none has existed to date within the
trailer program. Note that for HD pickups and vans, HD engines,
vocational vehicles and tractors, the Phase 1 rule included analogous
compliance program costs meant to account for costs incurred in the
all-new compliance program placed on the regulated firms by that rule.
Compliance program costs cover costs associated with any necessary
compliance testing and reporting to the agencies and differ somewhat by
alternative since, for example, more manufacturers are expected to
conduct powertrain testing under alternative 4 than under alternative
3, etc. The details behind the estimated compliance program costs are
provided in Chapter 7 of the draft RIA. We request comment on our
estimated compliance costs.
(3) Research and Development Costs
Much like the compliance program costs described above, we have
estimated additional HDD engine, vocational vehicle and tractor R&D
associated with the proposed standards that is not accounted for via
the indirect cost markups used for these segments. Much like the Phase
1 rule, EPA is estimating these additional R&D costs will occur over a
4-year timeframe as the proposed standards come into force and industry
works on means to comply. After that period, the additional R&D costs
go to $0 as R&D expenditures return to their normal levels and R&D
costs are accounted for via the ICMs--and the RPEs behind them--used
for these segments. Note that, due to the accelerated implementation of
some technologies, alternative 4 has higher R&D costs than does
alternative 3. The details behind the estimated R&D costs are provided
in Chapter 7 of the draft RIA. We request comment on our estimated R&D
costs.
[[Page 40441]]
(4) Summary of Costs of the Proposed Vehicle Programs
The agencies have estimated the costs of the proposed vehicle
standards on an annual basis for the years 2018 through 2050, and have
also estimated costs for the full model year lifetimes of MY2018
through MY2029 vehicles. Table IX-2 shows the annual costs of the
proposed standards along with net present values using both 3 percent
and 7 percent discount rates. Table IX-3 shows the discounted model
year lifetime costs of the proposed standards at both 3 percent and 7
percent discount rates along with sums across applicable model years.
Table IX-2--Annual Costs of the Preferred Alternative and Net Present Values at 3% and 7% Discount Rates Using
Method B and Relative to the Less Dynamic Baseline
[$Millions of 2012$] a
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Calendar year New technology Compliance R&D Sum
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2018............................................ 116 0 0 116
2019............................................ 113 0 0 113
2020............................................ 112 0 0 112
2021............................................ 2,173 18 240 2,432
2022............................................ 2,161 6 240 2,407
2023............................................ 2,224 6 240 2,470
2024............................................ 3,455 6 240 3,701
2025............................................ 3,647 6 0 3,653
2026............................................ 3,736 6 0 3,742
2027............................................ 5,309 6 0 5,315
2028............................................ 5,334 6 0 5,340
2029............................................ 5,376 6 0 5,381
2030............................................ 5,399 6 0 5,405
2035............................................ 5,856 6 0 5,862
2040............................................ 6,316 6 0 6,322
2050............................................ 6,987 6 0 6,992
NPV, 3%......................................... 85,926 104 759 86,789
NPV, 7%......................................... 40,516 56 561 41,133
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note:
\a\ For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less
dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
[[Page 40442]]
Table IX-3--Discounted MY Lifetime Costs of the Preferred Alternative Using Method B and Relative to the Less Dynamic Baseline
[$Millions of 2012$] a
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Discounted at 3% Discounted at 7%
Model year -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
New technology Compliance R&D Sum New technology Compliance R&D Sum
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2018............................................................ 104 0 0 104 91 0 0 91
2019............................................................ 99 0 0 99 84 0 0 84
2020............................................................ 95 0 0 95 77 0 0 77
2021............................................................ 1,794 15 198 2,007 1,401 12 155 1,567
2022............................................................ 1,731 5 193 1,928 1,302 3 145 1,450
2023............................................................ 1,730 4 187 1,921 1,252 3 135 1,390
2024............................................................ 2,610 4 181 2,795 1,818 3 126 1,947
2025............................................................ 2,674 4 0 2,678 1,793 3 0 1,796
2026............................................................ 2,660 4 0 2,664 1,717 3 0 1,719
2027............................................................ 3,670 4 0 3,673 2,280 2 0 2,283
2028............................................................ 3,580 4 0 3,583 2,141 2 0 2,143
2029............................................................ 3,502 4 0 3,506 2,017 2 0 2,019
Sum............................................................. 24,248 48 759 25,055 15,973 33 561 16,568
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note:
\a\ For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
[[Page 40443]]
New technology costs begin in MY2018 as trailers begin to add new
technology. Compliance costs begin with the new standards with capital
cost expenditure in that year for building and upgrading test
facilities to conduct the proposed powertrain testing in the vocational
program. Research and development costs begin in 2021 and last for 4
years as engine, tractor and vocational vehicle manufacturers conduct
research and development testing to integrate new technologies into
their engines and vehicles. We request comment on all aspects of our
technology costs, both individual technology costs and package costs,
as detailed in Chapter 2 of the draft RIA.
C. Changes in Fuel Consumption and Expenditures
(1) Changes in Fuel Consumption
The new GHG and fuel consumption standards would result in
significant improvements in the fuel efficiency of affected vehicles,
and drivers of those vehicles would see corresponding savings
associated with reduced fuel expenditures. The agencies have estimated
the impacts on fuel consumption for the proposed standards. Details
behind how these changes in fuel consumption were calculated are
presented in Section VII of this preamble and in Chapter 5 of the draft
RIA. The total number of miles that vehicles are driven each year is
different under the regulatory alternatives than in the reference case
due to the ``rebound effect'' (discussed below in Section IX.E), so the
changes in fuel consumption associated with each alternative are not
strictly proportional to differences in the fuel economy levels they
require.
The expected annual impacts on fuel consumption are shown in Table
IX-4. Table IX-5 shows the MY lifetime changes in fuel consumption. The
gallons shown in these tables as reductions in fuel consumption reflect
reductions due to the proposed standards and include any increased
consumption resulting from the rebound effect (discussed below in
Section IX.E).
Table IX-4--Annual Fuel Consumption Reductions Due to the Preferred Alternative Using Method B and Relative to the Less Dynamic Baseline
[Millions of gallons] \a\
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gasoline Diesel
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Calendar year Fuel Fuel
Reference case consumption % Reduction Reference case consumption % Reduction
reduction reduction
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2018.................................................... 6,781 0 0 45,999 74 0
2019.................................................... 6,799 0 0 46,362 150 0
2020.................................................... 6,832 0 0 46,768 227 0
2021.................................................... 6,884 10 0 47,236 523 1
2022.................................................... 6,944 29 0 47,761 894 2
2023.................................................... 7,005 57 1 48,309 1,276 3
2024.................................................... 7,054 99 1 48,807 1,895 4
2025.................................................... 7,113 151 2 49,400 2,523 5
2026.................................................... 7,169 210 3 49,967 3,152 6
2027.................................................... 7,221 291 4 50,420 3,890 8
2028.................................................... 7,273 369 5 50,821 4,600 9
2029.................................................... 7,332 445 6 51,262 5,278 10
2030.................................................... 7,396 516 7 51,792 5,924 11
2035.................................................... 7,732 801 10 54,602 8,517 16
2040.................................................... 8,075 968 12 58,082 10,209 18
2050.................................................... 8,806 1,127 13 65,937 12,310 19
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note:
\a\ For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic
baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
Table IX-5--Model Year Lifetime Fuel Consumption Reductions Due to the Preferred Alternative Using Method B and Relative to the Less Dynamic Baseline
[Millions of Gallons] \a\
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gasoline Diesel
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Model year Fuel Fuel
Reference consumption % Reduction Reference consumption % Reduction
reduction reduction
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2018.................................................... 0 0 0 33,384 754 2
2019.................................................... 0 0 0 33,922 745 2
2020.................................................... 0 0 0 34,575 738 2
2021.................................................... 7,128 113 2 47,792 4,424 9
2022.................................................... 7,118 216 3 48,112 4,568 9
2023.................................................... 7,106 317 4 48,366 4,703 10
2024.................................................... 7,225 493 7 49,577 7,628 15
2025.................................................... 7,376 602 8 51,050 7,967 16
2026.................................................... 7,535 714 9 52,420 8,289 16
2027.................................................... 7,628 982 13 53,532 9,984 19
2028.................................................... 7,711 992 13 54,524 10,181 19
2029.................................................... 7,769 999 13 55,421 10,360 19
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
[[Page 40444]]
Sum..................................................... 66,596 5,430 8 562,673 70,342 13
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note:
\a\ For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic
baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
(2) Fuel Savings
We have also estimated the changes in fuel expenditures, or the
fuel savings, using fuel prices estimated in the Energy and Information
Administration's 2014 Annual Energy Outlook.\640\ As the AEO fuel price
projections go through 2040 and not beyond, fuel prices beyond 2040
were set equal to the 2040 values. These estimates do not account for
the significant uncertainty in future fuel prices; the monetized fuel
savings would be understated if actual fuel prices are higher (or
overstated if fuel prices are lower) than estimated. The Annual Energy
Outlook (AEO) is a standard reference used by NHTSA and EPA and many
other government agencies to estimate the projected price of fuel. This
has been done using both the pre-tax and post-tax fuel prices. Since
the post-tax fuel prices are the prices paid at fuel pumps, the fuel
savings calculated using these prices represent the changes fuel
purchasers would see. The pre-tax fuel savings measure the value to
society of the resources saved when less fuel is refined and consumed.
Assuming no change in fuel tax rates, the difference between these two
columns represents the reduction in fuel tax revenues that would be
received by state and federal governments, or about $240 million in
2021 and $5.2 billion by 2050 as shown in Table IX-6 where annual
changes in monetized fuel savings are shown along with net present
values using 3 percent and 7 percent discount rates. Table IX-7 Table
IX-8 show the discounted model year lifetime fuel savings using 3
percent and 7 percent discount rates, respectively.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\640\ U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy
Outlook 2014, Early Release; Report Number DOE/EIA-0383ER (2014),
December 16, 2013.
Table IX-6--Annual Fuel Savings and Net Present Values at 3% and 7% Discount Rates Using Method B for the Preferred Alternative and Relative to the Less
Dynamic Baseline
[$Millions of 2012$] \a\
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Fuel savings--retail Fuel savings--untaxed
Calendar year ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Change in
Gasoline Diesel Sum Gasoline Diesel Sum transfer
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2018.................................... $0 $261 $261 $0 $227 $227 $34
2019.................................... 0 540 540 0 472 472 68
2020.................................... 0 834 834 0 731 731 103
2021.................................... 31 1,958 1,989 27 1,723 1,750 239
2022.................................... 92 3,413 3,505 80 3,015 3,095 410
2023.................................... 183 4,936 5,119 160 4,372 4,532 587
2024.................................... 324 7,426 7,750 285 6,594 6,879 871
2025.................................... 496 10,035 10,531 436 8,937 9,372 1,158
2026.................................... 695 12,683 13,378 613 11,321 11,934 1,445
2027.................................... 976 15,883 16,859 861 14,215 15,076 1,782
2028.................................... 1,243 18,938 20,181 1,099 16,980 18,079 2,102
2029.................................... 1,511 21,974 23,485 1,338 19,745 21,083 2,402
2030.................................... 1,770 24,905 26,675 1,571 22,422 23,993 2,682
2035.................................... 2,921 38,047 40,968 2,621 34,621 37,242 3,726
2040.................................... 3,778 48,300 52,078 3,427 44,357 47,783 4,295
2050.................................... 4,397 58,241 62,638 3,988 53,486 57,474 5,164
NPV, 3%................................. 37,319 506,971 544,290 33,603 461,992 495,595 48,695
NPR, 7%................................. 15,211 212,373 227,584 13,663 192,984 206,646 20,937
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note:
\a\ For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic
baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
[[Page 40445]]
Table IX-7--Discounted Model Year Lifetime Fuel Savings, 3% Discount Rate Using Method B for the Preferred Alternative and Relative to the Less Dynamic
Baseline
[$Millions of 2012$] \a\
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Fuel savings--retail Fuel savings--untaxed
Model year ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Change in
Gasoline Diesel Sum Gasoline Diesel Sum transfer
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2018.................................... $0 $2,183 $2,183 $0 $1,937 $1,937 $246
2019.................................... 0 2,123 2,123 0 1,890 1,890 234
2020.................................... 0 2,066 2,066 0 1,844 1,844 222
2021.................................... 258 12,178 12,436 228 10,898 11,126 1,310
2022.................................... 487 12,369 12,856 431 11,094 11,525 1,331
2023.................................... 700 12,513 13,212 620 11,247 11,867 1,346
2024.................................... 1,067 19,934 21,001 947 17,953 18,901 2,100
2025.................................... 1,277 20,435 21,712 1,136 18,441 19,577 2,135
2026.................................... 1,484 20,858 22,342 1,323 18,858 20,180 2,161
2027.................................... 2,001 24,642 26,643 1,787 22,319 24,106 2,537
2028.................................... 1,981 24,610 26,592 1,772 22,329 24,101 2,491
2029.................................... 1,957 24,536 26,493 1,754 22,298 24,052 2,441
Sum..................................... 11,211 178,448 189,659 9,997 161,107 171,105 18,554
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note:
\a\ For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic
baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
Table IX-8--Discounted Model Year Lifetime Fuel Savings, 7% Discount Rate Using Method B for the Preferred Alternative and Relative to the Less Dynamic
Baseline
[Millions of 2012] \a\
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Fuel savings--retail Fuel savings--untaxed
Model year ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Change in
Gasoline Diesel Sum Gasoline Diesel Sum transfer
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2018.................................... $0 $1,529 $1,529 $0 $1,352 $1,352 $176
2019.................................... 0 1,428 1,428 0 1,267 1,267 161
2020.................................... 0 1,331 1,331 0 1,185 1,185 146
2021.................................... 163 7,538 7,701 143 6,731 6,874 827
2022.................................... 295 7,383 7,678 260 6,608 6,869 810
2023.................................... 408 7,200 7,607 361 6,458 6,819 789
2024.................................... 599 11,055 11,654 531 9,938 10,469 1,186
2025.................................... 690 10,917 11,607 613 9,834 10,447 1,160
2026.................................... 772 10,734 11,505 687 9,688 10,374 1,131
2027.................................... 1,003 12,215 13,218 894 11,046 11,940 1,278
2028.................................... 956 11,741 12,697 854 10,636 11,490 1,206
2029.................................... 909 11,269 12,179 814 10,228 11,041 1,137
Sum..................................... 5,794 94,339 100,134 5,157 84,971 90,128 10,005
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note:
\a\ For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic
baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
D. Maintenance Expenditures
The agencies expect minimal increases in maintenance costs under
the proposed standards, having estimated increased maintenance costs
associated only with installation of lower rolling resistance tires. We
expect that, when replaced, the lower rolling resistance tires would be
replaced by equivalent performing tires throughout the vehicle
lifetime. As such, the incremental increases in costs for lower rolling
resistance tires would be incurred throughout the vehicle lifetime at
intervals consistent with current tire replacement intervals. Those
intervals are difficult to quantify given the variety of vehicles and
operating modes within the HD industry. We detail the inputs used to
estimate maintenance impacts in Chapter 7.3.3 of the draft RIA. We
request comment on all aspects of the maintenance estimates.
Specifically, for electrified vehicles (mild/strong hybrids) which are
expected in alternatives 3 and 4 and in each vehicle category, we have
not estimated any increased maintenance costs. We have heard from at
least one source \641\ that strong hybrid maintenance can be higher in
some ways, including possible battery replacement, but may also be much
lower for some vehicle systems like brakes and general engine wear.
Given the uncertainty, we have not estimated maintenance costs
specifically for these electrified vehicles but request comment so that
we might be able to include potential costs in the final rule. We also
request comment on any other maintenance costs that should be
considered along with supporting data.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\641\ Allison Transmission's Responses to EPA's Hybrid
Questions, November 6, 2014.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table IX-9 shows the annual increased maintenance costs of the
preferred alternative along with net present values using both 3
percent and 7 percent discount rates. Table IX-10 shows the discounted
model year lifetime increased maintenance costs of the preferred
alternative at both 3 percent and 7 percent discount rates along with
sums across applicable model years.
[[Page 40446]]
Table IX-9--Annual Maintenance Expenditure Increase Due to the Proposal
and Net Present Values at 3% and 7% Discount Rates Using Method B and
Relative to the Less Dynamic Baseline
[$Millions of 2012$] \a\
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Maintenance
Calendar year expenditure
increase
------------------------------------------------------------------------
2018.................................................... $6
2019.................................................... 11
2020.................................................... 16
2021.................................................... 28
2022.................................................... 39
2023.................................................... 50
2024.................................................... 64
2025.................................................... 78
2026.................................................... 90
2027.................................................... 104
2028.................................................... 116
2029.................................................... 127
2030.................................................... 127
2035.................................................... 127
2040.................................................... 127
2050.................................................... 127
NPV, 3%................................................. 1,796
NPV, 7%................................................. 860
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note:
\a\ For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section
I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more
dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
Table IX-10--Discounted MY Lifetime Maintenance Expenditure Increase due
to the Proposal using Method B and Relative to the Less Dynamic Baseline
[$Millions of 2012$] \a\
------------------------------------------------------------------------
3% Discount 7% Discount
Model year rate rate
------------------------------------------------------------------------
2018.................................... 51 36
2019.................................... 49 33
2020.................................... 47 31
2021.................................... 90 57
2022.................................... 89 54
2023.................................... 89 52
2024.................................... 112 63
2025.................................... 113 61
2026.................................... 102 53
2027.................................... 116 58
2028.................................... 111 54
2029.................................... 101 47
-------------------------------
Sum................................. 1,071 600
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note:
\a\ For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section
I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more
dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
E. Analysis of the Rebound Effect
The ``rebound effect'' has been defined a number of ways in the
literature, and one common definition states that the rebound effect is
the increase in demand for an energy service when the cost of the
energy service is reduced due to efficiency improvements.\642\ \643\
\644\ In the context of heavy-duty vehicles (HDVs), this can be
interpreted as an increase in HDV fuel consumption resulting from more
intensive vehicle use in response to increased vehicle fuel
efficiency.\645\ Although much of this vehicle use increase is likely
to take the form of increases in the number of miles vehicles are
driven, it can also take the form of increases in the loaded weight at
which vehicles operate or changes in traffic and road conditions
vehicles encounter as operators alter their routes and schedules in
response to improved fuel efficiency. Because this more intensive use
consumes fuel and generates emissions, it reduces the fuel savings and
avoided emissions that would otherwise be expected to result from the
increases in fuel efficiency this rulemaking proposes.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\642\ Winebrake, J.J., Green, E.H., Comer, B., Corbett, J.J.,
Froman, S., 2012. Estimating the direct rebound effect for on-road
freight transportation. Energy Policy 48, 252-259.
\643\ Greene, D.L., Kahn, J.R., Gibson, R.C., 1999, ``Fuel
economy rebound effect for U.S. household vehicles'', The Energy
Journal, 20.
\644\ For a discussion of the wide range of definitions found in
the literature, see Appendix D: Discrepancy in Rebound Effect
Definitions, in EERA (2014), ``Research to Inform Analysis of the
Heavy-Duty vehicle Rebound Effect'', Excerpts of Draft Final Report
of Phase 1 under EPA contract EP-C-13-025. (Docket ID: EPA-HQ-OAR-
2014-0827). See also Greening, L.A., Greene, D.L., Difiglio, C.,
2000, ``Energy efficiency and consumption--the rebound effect--a
survey'', Energy Policy, 28, 389-401.
\645\ We discuss other potential rebound effects in section
IX.D.3, such as the indirect and economy-wide rebound effects. Note
also that there is more than one way to measure HDV energy services
and vehicle use. The agencies' analyses use VMT as a measure (as
discussed below); other potential measures include ton-miles, cube-
miles, and fuel consumption.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unlike the light-duty vehicle (LDV) rebound effect, the HDV rebound
effect has not been extensively studied. According to a 2010 HDV report
published by the National Research Council of the National Academies
(NRC),\646\ it is ``not possible to provide
[[Page 40447]]
a confident measure of the rebound effect,'' yet NRC concluded that a
HDV rebound effect probably exists and that, ``estimates of fuel
savings from regulatory standards will be somewhat misestimated if the
rebound effect is not considered.'' Although we believe the HDV rebound
effect needs to be studied in more detail, we have nevertheless
attempted to capture its potential effect in our analysis of these
proposed rules, rather than to await further study. We have elected to
do so because the magnitude of the rebound effect is an important
determinant of the actual fuel savings and emission reductions that are
likely to result from adopting stricter fuel efficiency and GHG
emission standards.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\646\ Committee to Assess Fuel Economy Technologies for Medium-
and Heavy-Duty Vehicles; National Research Council; Transportation
Research Board (2010). ``Technologies and Approaches to Reducing the
Fuel Consumption of Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicles,'' Washington,
DC. The National Academies Press. Available electronically from the
National Academies Press Web site at https://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=12845 (last accessed September 10, 2010).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
In our analysis and discussion below, we focus on one widely-used
metric to estimate the rebound effect associated with all types of more
intensive vehicle use, the increase in vehicle miles traveled (VMT)
that results from improved fuel efficiency. VMT can often provide a
reasonable approximation for all types of more intensive vehicle use.
For simplicity, we refer to this as ``the VMT rebound effect'' or ``VMT
rebound'' throughout this section, although we acknowledge that it is
an approximation to the rebound effect associated with all types of
more intensive vehicle use. The agencies use our VMT rebound estimates
to generate VMT inputs that are then entered into the EPA MOVES
national emissions inventory model and the Volpe Center's HD CAFE
model. Both of these models use these inputs along with many others to
generate projected emissions and fuel consumption changes resulting
from each of the regulatory alternatives analyzed.
Using VMT rebound to approximate the fuel consumption impact from
all types of more intensive vehicle use may not be completely accurate.
Many factors other than distance traveled--for example, a vehicle's
loaded weight--play a role in determining its fuel consumption, so it
is also important to consider how changes in these factors are
correlated with variation in vehicle miles traveled. Empirical
estimates of the effect of weight on HDV fuel consumption vary, but
universally show that loaded weight has some effect on fuel consumption
that is independent of distance traveled. Therefore, the product of
vehicle payload and miles traveled, which typically is expressed in
units of ``ton-miles'' or ``ton-kilometers'', has also been considered
as a metric to approximate the rebound effect. Because this metric's
value depends on both payload and distance, it is important to note
that changes in these two variables can have different impacts on HDV
fuel consumption. This is because the fuel consumed by HDV freight
transport is determined by several vehicle attributes including engine
and accessory efficiencies, aerodynamic characteristics, tire rolling
resistance and total vehicle mass--including payload carried, if any.
Other factors such as vehicle route and traffic patterns can also
affect how each of these vehicle attributes contributes to the overall
fuel consumption of a vehicle. While it seems intuitive that if all of
these other conditions remain constant, a vehicle driving the same
route and distance twice will consume twice as much fuel as driving
that same route once. However, because of the other vehicle attributes,
it is less intuitive how a change in vehicle payload would affect
vehicle fuel consumption. We request comment on how the agencies should
consider the relationship between changes in vehicle miles traveled,
changes in vehicle ton-miles achieved, and overall fuel consumption
when considering how best to measure the rebound effect.
Because the factors influencing HDV VMT rebound are generally
different from those affecting LDV VMT rebound, much of the research on
the LDV sector is likely to not apply to the HDV sector. For example,
the owners and operators of LDVs may respond to the costs and benefits
associated with changes in their personal vehicle's fuel efficiency
very differently than a HDV fleet owner or operator would view the
costs and benefits (e.g., profits, offering more competitive prices for
services) associated with changes in their HDVs' fuel efficiency. To
the extent the response differs, such differences may be smaller for HD
pickups and vans, which share some similarities with LDVs. As discussed
in the 2010 NRC HD report, one difference from the LDV case is that
when calculating the change in HDV costs that causes the rebound
effect, it is more important to consider all components of HDV
operating costs. The costs of labor and fuel generally constitute the
two largest shares of HDV operating costs, depending on the price of
petroleum, distance traveled, type of vehicle, and commodity
transported (if any).647 648 Equipment depreciation costs
associated with the purchase or lease of an HDV are another significant
component of total operating costs. Even when HDV purchases involve
upfront, one-time payments, HDV operators must recover the depreciation
in the value of their vehicles resulting from their use, so this is
likely to be considered as an operating cost they will attempt to pass
on to final consumers of HDV operator services.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\647\ American Transportation Research Institute, An Analysis of
the Operational Costs of Trucking, September 2013.
\648\ Transport Canada, Operating Cost of Trucks, 2005. See
https://www.tc.gc.ca/eng/policy/report-acg-operatingcost2005-2005-e-2-1727.htm, accessed on July 16, 2010.
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Estimates of the impact of fuel efficiency standards on HDV VMT,
and hence fuel consumption, should account for changes in all of these
components of HDV operating costs. The higher the net savings in total
operating costs is, the higher the expected rebound effect would be.
Conversely, if higher HDV purchase costs outweigh future cost savings
and total operating costs increase, HDV costs could rise, which would
likely result in a decrease in HDV VMT. In theory, other cost changes
resulting from any requirement to achieve higher fuel efficiency, such
as changes in maintenance costs or insurance rates, should also be
taken into account, although information on these elements of HDV
operating costs is extremely limited. In this analysis, the agencies
adapt estimates of the VMT rebound effect to project the response of
HDV use to the estimated changes in total operating costs that result
from the proposed Phase 2 standards. We seek comment and data on how
our proposed standards could impact these and other types of HDV
operating costs, as well as on our procedure for adapting the VMT
rebound effect to estimate the response of HDV use to changes in total
operating costs.
Since businesses are profit-driven, one would expect their
decisions to be based on the costs and benefits of different operating
decisions, both in the near-term and long-term. Specifically, one would
expect commercial HDV operators to take into account changes in overall
operating costs per mile when making decisions about HDV use and
setting rates they charge for their services. If demand for those
services is sensitive to the rates HDV operators charge, HDV VMT could
change in response to the effect of higher fuel efficiency on the rates
HDV operators charge. If demand for HDV services is insensitive to
price (e.g., due to lack of good substitutes), however, or if changes
in HDV operating costs due to the proposed standards are not
[[Page 40448]]
passed on to final consumers of HDV operator services, the proposed
standards may have a limited impact on HDV VMT.
The following sections describe the factors affecting the magnitude
of HDV VMT rebound; review the econometric and other evidence related
to HDV VMT rebound; and summarize how we estimated the HDV rebound
effect for this proposal.
(1) Factors Affecting the Magnitude of HDV VMT Rebound
The magnitude and timing of HDV VMT rebound result from the
interaction of many different factors.\649\ Fuel savings resulting from
fuel efficiency standards may cause HDV operators and their customers
to change their patterns of HDV use and fuel consumption in a variety
of ways. For example, HDV operators may pass on the fuel cost savings
to their customers by decreasing prices for shipping products or
providing services, which in turn could stimulate more demand for those
products and services (e.g., increases in freight output), and result
in higher VMT. As discussed later in this section, HDV VMT rebound
estimates determined via other proxy elasticities vary widely, but in
no case has there been an estimate that fully offsets the fuel saved
due to efficiency improvements (i.e., no rebound effect greater than or
equal to 100 percent).
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\649\ These factors are discussed more fully in a report to EPA
from EERA, which illustrates in a series of diagrams the complex
system of decisions and decision-makers that could influence the
magnitude and timing of the rebound effect. See Sections 2.2.2,
2.2.3, 2.2.4, and 2.3 in EERA (2014), ``Research to Inform Analysis
of the Heavy-Duty Vehicle Rebound Effect'', Excerpts of Draft Final
Report of Phase 1 under EPA contract EP-C-13-025.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
If fuel cost savings are passed on to the HDV operators' customers
(e.g., logistics businesses, manufacturers, retailers, municipalities,
utilities consumers), those customers might reorganize their logistics
and distribution networks over time to take advantage of lower
operating costs. For example, customers might order more frequent
shipments or choose products that entail longer shipping distances,
while freight carriers might divert some shipments to trucks from other
shipping modes such as rail, barge or air. In addition, customers might
choose to reduce their number of warehouses, reduce shipment rates or
make smaller but more frequent shipments, all of which could lead to an
increase in HDV VMT. Ultimately, fuel cost savings could ripple through
the entire economy, thus increasing demand for goods and services
shipped by trucks, and therefore increase HDV VMT due to increased
gross domestic product (GDP).
Conversely, if fuel efficiency standards lead to net increases in
the total costs of HDV operation because fuel cost savings do not fully
offset the increase in HDV purchase prices and associated depreciation
costs, then the price of HDV services could rise. This is likely to
spur a decrease in HDV VMT, and perhaps a shift to alternative shipping
modes. These effects could also ripple through the economy and affect
GDP. Note, however, that we project fuel cost savings will offset
technology costs in our analysis supporting our proposed standards.
It is also important to note that any increase in HDV VMT resulting
from our proposed standards may be offset, to some extent, by a
decrease in VMT by older HDVs. This may occur if lower fuel costs
resulting from our standards cause multi-vehicle fleet operators to
shift VMT to newer, more efficient HDVs in their fleet or cause
operators with newer, more efficient HDVs to be more successful at
winning contracts than operators with older HDVs.
Also, as discussed in Chapter 8.3.3 of the Draft RIA, the magnitude
of the rebound effect is likely to be influenced by the extent of any
market failures that affect the demand for more fuel efficient HDVs, as
well as by HDV operators' responses to their perception of the tradeoff
between higher upfront HDV purchase costs versus lower but uncertain
future expenditures on fuel.
(2) Econometric and Other Evidence Related to HDV VMT Rebound
As discussed above, HDV VMT rebound is defined as the change in HDV
VMT that occurs in response to an increase in HDV fuel efficiency. We
are not aware of any studies that directly estimate this elasticity
\650\ for the U.S. This section discusses econometric analyses of other
related elasticities that could potentially be used as a proxy for
measuring HDV VMT rebound, as well as other analyses that may provide
insight into the magnitude of HDV VMT rebound. We seek comment on the
applicability of the findings from these analyses, as well as
additional data and research on the topic of HDV VMT rebound.
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\650\ Elasticity is the measurement of how responsive an
economic variable is to a change in another. For example: price
elasticity of demand is a measure used in economics to show the
responsiveness, or elasticity, of the quantity demanded of a good or
service to a change in its price. More precisely, it gives the
percentage change in quantity demanded in response to a one percent
change in price.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
One of the challenges to developing robust econometric analyses of
HDV VMT rebound in the U.S. is data limitations. For example, the main
source of time-series HDV fuel efficiency data in the U.S. is derived
from aggregate fuel consumption and HDV VMT data. This may introduce
interdependence or ``simultaneity'' between measures of HDV VMT and HDV
fuel efficiency, because estimates of HDV fuel efficiency are derived
partly from HDV VMT. This mutual interdependence makes it difficult to
isolate the causal effect of HDV fuel efficiency on HDV VMT and to
measure the response of HDV VMT to changes in HDV fuel efficiency.
Data on other important determinants of HDV VMT, such as freight
shipping rates, shipment sizes, HDV payloads, and congestion levels on
key HDV routes is also limited, of questionable reliability, or
unavailable. Additionally, data on HDVs and their use is usually only
available at an aggregate level, making it difficult to evaluate
potential differences in determinants of VMT for different types of HDV
operations (e.g., long-haul freight vs. regional delivery operations)
or vehicle sub-classes (e.g., utility vehicles vs. school buses).
Another challenge inherent in using econometric techniques to
measure the response of HDV VMT to HDV fuel efficiency is developing
model specifications that incorporate the mathematical form and range
of explanatory variables necessary to produce reliable estimates of HDV
VMT rebound. Many different factors can influence HDV VMT, and the
complex relationships among those factors should be considered when
measuring the rebound effect.\651\
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\651\ A useful framework for understanding how various responses
interact to determine the rebound effect is presented in Section 2
and Appendix B of De Borger, B. and Mulalic, I. (2012), ``The
determinants of fuel use in the trucking industry--volume, fleet
characteristics and the rebound effect'', Transportation Policy,
Volume 24, pp. 284-295. See also Section 3.4 of EERA (2014),
``Research to Inform Analysis of the Heavy-Duty vehicle Rebound
Effect'', Excerpts of Draft Final Report of Phase 1 under EPA
contract EP-C-13-025.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
In practice, however, most studies have employed simplified models.
Many use price variables (e.g., price per gallon of fuel, or fuel cost
per mile driven) and some measure of aggregate economic activity, such
as GDP. However, some of these studies exclude potentially important
variables such as the amount of road capacity (which affects travel
speeds and may be related to other important characteristics of highway
infrastructure), or the price or availability of competing forms of
freight transport such as rail or barge (i.e., characteristics of the
overall freight transport network).
[[Page 40449]]
(a) Fuel Price and Fuel Cost Elasticities
This sub-section reviews econometric analyses of the change in HDV
use (measured in VMT, ton-mile, or fuel consumption) in response to
changes in fuel price ($/gallon) or fuel cost ($/mile or $/ton-mile).
The studies presented below attempt to estimate these elasticities in
the HDV sector using varying approaches and data sources.
Gately (1990) employed an econometric analysis of U.S. data for the
years 1966-1988 to examine the relationship between HDV VMT and average
fuel cost per mile, real Gross National Product (GNP), and variables
capturing the effects of fuel shortages in 1974 and 1979.\652\ The
study found no statistically significant relationship between HDV VMT
and fuel cost per mile. Gately's estimates of the elasticity of HDV VMT
with respect to fuel cost per mile were -0.035 with and -0.029 without
the fuel shortage variables, but both estimates had large standard
errors. However, Gately's study was beset by numerous statistical
problems, which raise serious questions about the reliability of its
results.\653\
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\652\ Gately, D., The U.S. Demand for Highway Travel and Motor
Fuels, The Energy Journal, Volume 11, No. 3, July 1990, pp.59-73.
\653\ The most important of these problems--similar historical
time trends in the model's dependent variable and the measures used
to explain its historical variation--can lead to ``spurious
regressions,'' or the appearance of behavioral relationships that
are simply artifacts of the similarity (or correlation) in
historical trends among the model's variables.
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More recently, Matos and Silva (2011) analyzed road freight
transportation sector data for the years 1987-2006 in Portugal to
identify the determinants of demand for HDV freight
transportation.\654\ Using a reduced-form equation relating HDV use
(measured in ton-km) to economic activity (GDP) and the energy cost of
HDV use (measured in fuel cost per ton-km carried), these authors
estimated the elasticity of HDV ton-km with respect to energy costs to
be -0.241. An important strength of Matos and Silva's study is that it
also estimated this same elasticity using a procedure that accounted
for the effect of potential mutual causality between HDV ton-km and
energy costs, and arrived at an identical value.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\654\ Matos, F.J.F., and Silva, F.J.F., ``The Rebound Effect on
Road Freight Transport: Empirical Evidence from Portugal,'' Energy
Policy, 39, 2011, pp. 2833-2841.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Differences between HDV use and the level of highway service in
Portugal and in the U.S. might limit the applicability of Matos and
Silva's result to the U.S. The volume and mix of commodities could
differ between the two nations, as could the levels of congestion on
their respective highway networks, transport distances, the extent of
intermodal competition, and the characteristics of HDVs themselves.
HDVs also operate over a more limited highway network in Portugal than
in the United States. Unfortunately, it is difficult to anticipate how
these differences might cause Matos and Silva's elasticity estimates to
differ from what we might find in the U.S. Finally, their analysis
focused on HDV freight transport and did not consider non-freight uses
of HDVs, which somewhat limits its usefulness in the analysis of this
proposed rulemaking.
De Borger and Mulalic (2012) examined the determinants of fuel use
in the Denmark HDV freight transport sector for the years 1980-2007.
The authors developed a system of equations that capture linkages among
the demand for HDV freight transport, HDV fleet characteristics, and
HDV fuel consumption.\655\ As De Borger and Mulalic state, ``we
precisely define and estimate a rebound effect of improvements in fuel
efficiency in the trucking industry: Behavioral adjustments in the
industry imply that an exogenous improvement in fuel efficiency reduces
fuel use less than proportionately. Our best estimate of this effect is
approximately 10 percent in the short run and 17 percent in the long
run, so that a 1 percent improvement in fuel efficiency reduces fuel
use by 0.90 percent (short-run) to 0.83 percent (long-run).''
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\655\ De Borger, B. and Mulalic, I., ``The determinates of fuel
use in the trucking industry--volume, fleet characteristics and the
rebound effect'', Transportation Policy, Volume 24, November 2012,
pp. 284-295.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
While De Borger and Mulalic capture a number of important responses
that contribute to the rebound effect, some caution is appropriate when
using their results to estimate the VMT rebound effect for this
proposal. Like the Matos and Silva study, this study examined HDV
activity in another country, Denmark, which has a less-developed
highway system, lower levels of freight railroad service than the U.S.,
and is also likely to have a different composition of freight shipping
activity. Although the effect of some of these differences is unclear,
greater competition from rail shipping in the U.S. and the resulting
potential for lower trucking costs to divert some rail freight to truck
could cause the VMT rebound effect to be larger in the U.S. than De
Borger and Mulalic's estimate for Denmark.
On the other hand, if freight networks are denser and commodity
types are more homogenous in Denmark than the U.S., then shippers may
have wider freight trucking options. If this is the case, shippers in
Denmark might be more sensitive to changes in freight costs, which
could cause the rebound effect in Denmark to be larger than the U.S.
Like the Matos and Silva study, this analysis also focuses on freight
trucking and does not consider non-freight HDVs (e.g. vocational
vehicles). We have been unable to identify adequate data to employ De
Borger and Mulalic's model for the U.S. (mainly because time-series
data on freight carriage by trucks, driver wages, and vehicle prices in
the U.S. are limited).
The Volpe National Transportation Systems Center previously has
developed a series of travel forecasting models for the Federal Highway
Administration (FHWA).\656\ Work conducted by the Volpe Center during
2009-2011 to develop the original version of FHWA's forecasting model
was presented in the Regulatory Impact Analysis for the HD GHG Phase 1
rule (see Table 9-2 in that document, which is reproduced below as
Table IX-11).\657\ In the analysis for the Phase 1 rule, Volpe
estimated both state-level and national aggregate models to forecast
HDV single unit and combination truck VMT that included fuel cost per
mile as an explanatory variable. This analysis used data from 1970-2008
for its national aggregate model, and data for the 50 individual states
from 1994-2008 for its state-level model.658 659
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\656\ FHWA Travel Analysis Framework Development of VMT
Forecasting Models for Use by the Federal Highway Administration May
12, 2014 https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policyinformation/tables/vmt/vmt_model_dev.pdf. Volpe's work was advised by a panel of
approximately 20 experts in the measurement, analysis, and
forecasting of travel, including academic researchers,
transportation consultants, and members of local, state, and federal
government transportation agencies. It was also summarized in the
paper ``Developing a Multi-Level Vehicle Miles of Travel Forecasting
Model,'' November, 2011, which was presented to the Transportation
Research Board's 91st Annual Meeting in January, 2012.
\657\ EPA/NHTSA, August 2011. Chapter 9.3.3, Final Rulemaking to
Establish Greenhouse gas Emission Standards & Fuel Efficiency
Standards for Medium-and Heavy-Duty Engines and Vehicles, Regulatory
Impact Analysis. EPA-420-R-11-901. (https://www.epa.gov/otaq/climate/documents/420r11901.pdf).
\658\ Combination trucks are defined as ``all [Class 7/8] trucks
designed to be used in combination with one or more trailers with a
gross vehicle weight rating over 26,000 lbs.'' (AFDC, 2014; ORNL,
2013c). Single-unit trucks are defined as ``single frame trucks that
have 2-axles and at least 6 tires or a gross vehicle weight rating
exceeding 10,000 lbs.'' (FHWA, 2013).
\659\ The national-level and functional class VMT forecasting
models utilize aggregate time-series data for the nation as a whole,
so that only a single measure of each variable is available during
each time period (i.e., year). In contrast, the state-level VMT
models have an additional data dimension, since both their dependent
variable (VMT) and most explanatory variables have 51 separate
observations available for each time period (one for each of the 50
states as well as Washington, DC). In this context, the states
represent a ``cross-section,'' and a continuous annual sequence of
these cross-sections is available.
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[[Page 40450]]
Volpe analysts tested a large number of different specifications
for its national and state level models that incorporated the effects
of factors such as aggregate economic activity and its composition, the
volume of U.S. exports and imports, and factors affecting the cost of
producing trucking services (e.g., driver wage rates, truck purchase
prices, and fuel costs), and the extent and capacity of the U.S. and
states' highway networks.
Table IX-11 summarizes Volpe's Phase 1 estimates of the elasticity
of truck VMT with respect to fuel cost per mile.\660\ As it indicates,
these estimates vary widely, and the estimates based on state-level and
national data differ substantially.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\660\ One drawback of the fuel cost measure employed in Volpe's
models is that it is based on estimates of fuel economy derived from
truck VMT and fuel consumption, which introduces the potential for
mutual causality (or ``simultaneity'') between VMT and the fuel cost
measure and makes the effect of the latter difficult to isolate.
This may cause their estimates of the sensitivity of truck VMT to
fuel costs to be inaccurate, although the direction of any resulting
bias is difficult to anticipate.
Table IX-11--Summary of Volpe Center Estimates of Elasticity of Truck VMT With Respect to Fuel Cost per Mile
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
National data State data
Truck type ----------------------------------------------------------------
Short run Long run Short run Long run
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Single Unit.................................... 13-22% 28-45% 3-8% 12-21%
Combination.................................... N/A 12-14% N/A 4-5%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Volpe staff conducted additional analysis of the models that
yielded the estimates of the elasticity of truck VMT with respect to
fuel cost per mile reported in Table IX-11, using updated information
on fuel costs and other variables appearing in these models, together
with revised historical data on truck VMT provided by DOT's Federal
Highway Administration. The newly-available data, statistical
procedures employed in conducting this additional analysis, and its
results are summarized in materials that can be found in the docket for
this rulemaking. This new Volpe analysis was not available at the time
the agencies selected the values of the rebound effect for this
proposal, but the agencies will consider this work and any other work
in the analysis supporting the final rule.
Finally, EPA has contracted with Energy and Environmental Research
Associates (EERA), LLC to analyze the HDV rebound effect for regulatory
assessment purposes. Excerpts of EERA's initial report to EPA are
included in the docket and contain detailed qualitative discussions of
the rebound effect as well as data sources that could be used in
quantitative analysis.\661\ EERA also conducted follow-on quantitative
analyses focused on estimating the impact of fuel prices on VMT and
fuel consumption. We have included a working paper in the docket on
this work, and we seek comment on this work.\662\ Note that EERA's
working paper was not available at the time the agencies conducted the
analysis of the rebound effect for this proposal, but the agencies will
consider this work and any other work in the analysis supporting the
final rule.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\661\ EERA (2014), ``Research to Inform Analysis of the Heavy-
Duty vehicle Rebound Effect'', Excerpts of Draft Final Report of
Phase 1 under EPA contract EP-C-13-025.
\662\ EERA (2015), ``Working Paper on Fuel Price Elasticities
for Heavy Duty Vehicles'', Draft Final Report of Phase 2 under EPA
contract EP-C-11-046.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
There are reasons to be cautious about interpreting the
elasticities from the studies reviewed in this section as a measure of
VMT rebound resulting from our proposed standards. For example, vehicle
capacity and loaded weight can vary dynamically in the HDV sector--
possibly in response to changes in fuel price and fuel efficiency--and
data on these measures are limited. This makes it difficult to
confidently infer a direct relationship between trucking output (e.g.,
ton-miles carried) and VMT assuming a constant average payload.
In addition, fuel cost per mile--calculated by multiplying fuel
price per gallon by fuel efficiency in gallons per mile--and fuel price
may be imprecise proxies for an improvement in fuel efficiency, because
the response of VMT to these variables may differ. For example, if
truck operators are more attentive to variation in fuel prices than to
changes in fuel efficiency, then fuel price or fuel cost elasticities
may overstate the true magnitude of the rebound effect.
Similarly, there is some evidence in the literature that demand for
crude petroleum and refined fuels is more responsive to increases than
to decreases in their prices, although this research is not specific to
the HDV sector.\663\ Since improved fuel efficiency typically causes
fuel costs for HDVs to fall (and assuming fuel costs are not fully
offset by increases in vehicle purchase prices), fuel price or cost
elasticities derived from historical periods when fuel prices were
increasing or fuel efficiency was declining may also overstate the
magnitude of the rebound effect. An additional unknown is that HDV
operators may factor fuel prices and fuel costs into their decision-
making about rates to charge for their service differently from the way
they incorporate initial vehicle purchase costs.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\663\ Gately, D. 1993. The Imperfect Price-Reversibility of
World Oil Demand. The Energy Journal, International Association for
Energy Economics, vol. 14 (4), pp. 163-182; Dargay, J.M., Gately, D.
1997. The demand for transportation fuels: Imperfect price-
reversibility? Transportation Research Part B 31(1); and Sentenac-
Chemin, E., 2012. Is the price effect on fuel consumption symmetric?
Some evidence from an empirical study. Energy Policy, vol. 41, pp.
59-65.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Despite these limitations, elasticities with respect to fuel price
and fuel cost can provide some insight into the magnitude of the HDV
VMT rebound effect. The agencies request comment on all of the studies
presented in this section.
(b) Freight Price Elasticities
Freight price elasticities measure the percent change in demand for
freight in response to a percent change in freight prices, controlling
for other variables that may influence freight demand such as GDP, the
extent that goods are traded internationally, and road supply and
capacity. This type of elasticity is only applicable to the HDV
subcategory of freight trucks (i.e., combination tractors and
vocational vehicles that transport freight). One desirable attribute of
such measures for purposes of this analysis is that they show the
response of freight
[[Page 40451]]
trucking activity to changes to trucking rates, including changes that
result from fuel cost savings as well as increases in HDV technology
costs.\664\
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\664\ Note however that a percent change in freight activity in
response to a percent change in freight rates should theoretically
be larger than a percent change in freight activity in response to a
percent change in fuel efficiency because fuel efficiency only
impacts a portion of freight operating costs (e.g., fuel and vehicle
costs, but not likely driver wages or highway tolls).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Freight price elasticities, however, are imperfect proxies for the
rebound effect in freight trucks for a number of reasons.\665\ For
example, in order to apply these elasticities we must assume that our
proposed rule's impact on fuel and vehicle costs is fully reflected in
freight rates. This may not be the case if truck operators adjust their
profit margins or other operational practices (e.g., loading practices,
truck driver's wages) instead of freight rates. It is not well
understood how trucking firms respond to different types of cost
changes (e.g., changes to fuel costs versus labor costs).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\665\ Winebrake, J.J., Green, E.H., Comer, B., Corbett, J.J.,
Froman, S., 2012. Estimating the direct rebound effect for on-road
freight transportation. Energy Policy 48, 252-259.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Freight price elasticity estimates in the literature typically
measure freight activity in tons or ton-miles, rather than VMT. As
discussed in the previous section, average truck capacity and payload
in the HDV sector varies dynamically--possibly in response to changes
in fuel price and fuel efficiency--and data on these measures are
limited. This makes it difficult to confidently infer a direct
relationship between ton-miles and VMT by assuming a constant average
payload. Inferring a direct relationship between tons and VMT is even
less straightforward. Additionally, there are significant limitations
on national freight rate and freight truck ton-mile data in the U.S.,
making it difficult to confidently measure the impact of a change in
freight rates on ton-miles.\666\
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\666\ See, for example, Appendix E in EERA (2014), ``Research to
Inform Analysis of the Heavy-Duty Vehicle Rebound Effect'', Draft
Final Report of Phase 1 under EPA contract EP-C-13-025.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Finally, freight price elasticity estimates in the literature vary
significantly based on commodity type, length of haul, region,
availability of alternative modes (discussed further in Section
IX.E.b.iii below), and functional form of the model (i.e., log-linear,
linear, translog) making it difficult to confidently apply any single
estimate reported in the literature to nationwide freight activity. For
example, elasticity estimates for longer trips tend to be larger in
magnitude than those for shorter trips, while demand to ship bulk
commodities tends to be less elastic than for non-bulk commodities.
Although these factors explain some of the differences among
reported estimates, much of the observed variation cannot be explained
quantitatively. For example, one study that controlled for mode,
commodity class, demand elasticity measure (i.e., tons or ton-miles),
model estimation form, country, and temporal nature of data only
accounted for about half of the observed variation.\667\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\667\ Li, Z., D.A. Hensher, and J.M. Rose, Identifying sources
of systematic variation in direct price elasticities from revealed
preference studies of inter-city freight demand. Transport Policy,
2011.
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(c) Mode Shift Case Study
Although the total demand for freight transport is generally
determined by economic activity, there is often the choice of shipping
freight on modes other than HDVs. This is because the United States has
extensive rail, waterway, pipeline, and air transport networks in
addition to an extensive highway network; these networks often closely
parallel each other and are often viable choices for freight transport
for many long-distance shipping routes within the continental U.S. If
rates for one mode decline, demand for that mode is likely to increase,
and some of this new demand could represent shifts from other
modes.\668\ The ``cross-price elasticity of demand,'' which measures
the percentage change in demand for shipping by another mode (e.g.,
rail) given a percentage change in the price of HDV freight transport
services, provides a measure of the importance of such mode shifting.
Aggregate estimates of cross-price elasticities vary widely,\669\ and
there is no general consensus on the most appropriate value to use for
analytical purposes.
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\668\ Rail lines in parts of the U.S. are thought to be
currently oversubscribed. If that is the case, and new freight
demand is already being satisfied by trucks, then this would limit
the potential for intermodal freight shifts between trucks and rail
as the result of this proposed rule.
\669\ Winebrake, J.J., Green, E.H., Comer, B., Corbett, J.J.,
Froman, S., 2012. Estimating the direct rebound effect for on-road
freight transportation. Energy Policy 48, 252-259.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
When considering intermodal shift, one of the most relevant kinds
of shipments are those that are competitive between rail and HDV modes.
These trips generally include long-haul shipments greater than 500
miles, which weigh between 50,000 and 80,000 lbs (the legal road limit
in many states). Special kinds of cargo like coal and short-haul
deliveries are of less interest because they are generally not
economically transferable between HDV and rail modes, so they would not
be expected to shift modes except under an extreme price change.
However, to the best of our knowledge, the total amount of freight that
could potentially be subject to mode shifting has not been studied
extensively.
In order to explore the potential for HDV fuel efficiency standards
to produce economic conditions that favor a mode shift from rail to
HDVs, EPA commissioned GIFT Solutions, LLC to perform case studies on
the HD GHG Phase 1 rule using a number of data sources, including the
Commodity Flow Survey, interviews with trucking firms, and the
Geospatial Intermodal Freight Transportation (GIFT) model developed by
Winebrake and Corbett, which includes information on infrastructure and
other route characteristics in the U.S.670 671
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\670\ Winebrake, James and James J. Corbett (2010). ``Improving
the Energy Efficiency and Environmental Performance of Goods
Movement,'' in Sperling, Daniel and James S. Cannon (2010) Climate
and Transportation Solutions: Findings from the 2009 Asilomar
Conference on Transportation and Energy Policy. See https://www.its.ucdavis.edu/events/2009book/Chapter13.pdf.
\671\ Winebrake, J.J.; Corbett, J.J.; Falzarano, A.; Hawker,
J.S.; Korfmacher, K.; Ketha, S.; Zilora, S., Assessing Energy,
Environmental, and Economic Tradeoffs in Intermodal Freight
Transportation, Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association,
58(8), 2008 (Docket ID: EPA-HQ-OAR-2010-0162-0008).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
A central assumption in the case studies was that economic
conditions would favor a shift from rail to HDVs if either the price
per ton-mile to ship a commodity by HDV, or the price to ship a given
quantity of a commodity by HDV, became lower relative to rail transport
options post-regulation. The results of the case studies indicate that
the HD Phase 1 rule would not seem to create obvious economic
conditions that lead to a mode shift from rail to truck, but there are
a number of limitations and caveats to this analysis, which are
discussed in the final report to EPA by GIFT.672 673 For
example, even if trucking did not become less expensive than rail post-
regulation, a relative decrease in the truck versus rail rates might be
enough to produce a shift, given that other factors could influence
shippers' decisions on modal choice. The study did not, however,
consider these other factors such as time-of-delivery and modal
capacity. As another example, the analysis assumes all fuel cost
savings and incremental vehicle
[[Page 40452]]
costs from the HD Phase 1 rule would be passed on to shippers via
changes in freight rates, even though the analysis found some evidence
that this might not occur (in two cases, the charges for shipping a
truckload over a given route and distance were the same despite
differences in payloads that should have been reflected in their fuel
costs). Given these limitations, more work is needed in this area to
explore the potential for mode shift in response to HD fuel efficiency
standards.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\672\ See GIFT Solutions, LLC, ``Potential for Mode Shift due to
Heavy Duty Vehicle Fuel Efficiency Improvements''. February, 2012.
\673\ Winebrake, James, J. Corbett, J. Silberman, E. Erin, & B.
Comer, 2012. Potential for Mode Shift due to Heavy Duty Vehicle Fuel
Efficiency Improvements: A Case Study Approach. GIFT Solutions, LLC.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
(d) Case Study Using Freight Price Elasticities
Cambridge Systematics, Inc. (CSI) employed a case study approach
using freight price elasticity estimates in the literature to show
several examples of the magnitude of the HDV rebound effect.\674\ In
their unpublished paper commissioned by the National Research Council
of the National Academies in support of its 2010 HDV report, CSI
estimated the effect on HDV VMT from a net decrease in operating costs
associated with fuel efficiency improvements, using two different
technology cost and fuel savings scenarios for Class 8 combination
tractors. Scenario 1 increased average fuel efficiency of the tractor
from 5.59 miles per gallon to 6.8 miles per gallon, with an additional
cost of $22,930 for purchasing the improved tractor. Scenario 2
increased the average fuel efficiency to 9.1 miles per gallon, at an
incremental cost of $71,630 per tractor. Both of these scenarios were
based on the technologies and targets from a report authored by the
Northeast States Center for a Clean Air Future (NESCCAF) and
International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT).\675\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\674\ Cambridge Systematics, Inc., Assessment of Fuel Economy
Technologies for Medium and Heavy Duty Vehicles: Commissioned Paper
on Indirect Costs and Alternative Approaches, 2009.
\675\ Northeast States Center for a Clean Air Future, Southeast
Research Institute, TIAX, LLC., and International Council on Clean
Transportation, Reducing Heavy-Duty Long Haul Truck Fuel Consumption
and CO2 Emissions, September 2009. See https://www.nescaum.org/documents/heavy-duty-truck-ghg_report_final-200910.pdf.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
The CSI estimates were based on a range of direct (or ``own-
price'') freight elasticities (-0.5 to -1.5) \676\ and cross-price
freight elasticities (0.35 to 0.59) \677\ obtained from the
literature.\678\ In their calculations, CSI assumed 142,706 million
miles of tractor VMT and 1,852 billion ton-miles were affected. The
tractor VMT was based on the Bureau of Transportation Statistics' (BTS)
estimate of highway miles for combination tractors in 2006, and the
rail ton-miles were based on the BTS estimate of total railroad miles
during 2006. This assumption is likely to overstate the rebound effect,
since not all freight shipments occur on routes where tractors and rail
service shipments compete directly. Nevertheless, this assumption
appears to be reasonable in the absence of more detailed information on
the percentage of total miles and ton-miles that are subject to
potential mode shifting.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\676\ Graham and Glaister, ``Road Traffic Demand Elasticity
Estimates: A Review,'' Transport Reviews Volume 24, 3, pp. 261-274,
2004.
\677\ Based upon a study for the National Cooperative Highway
Research Program by Cambridge Systematics, Inc., Characteristics and
Changes in Freight Transportation Demand: A Guidebook for Planners
and Policy Analysts Phase II Report, National Cooperative Highway
Research Program Project 8-30, June 1995.
\678\ The own (i.e., self) price elasticity provides a measure
for describing how the volume of truck shipping (demand) changes
with its price while the cross-price elasticity provides a measure
for describing how the volume of rail shipping changes with truck
price. In general, an elasticity describes the percent change in one
variable (e.g. demand for trucking) in response to a percent-change
in another (e.g. price of truck operations).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
For CSI's calculations, all costs except fuel costs and vehicle
costs were taken from a 2008 ATRI study.\679\ It is not clear from the
report how the new vehicle costs were incorporated into CSI's
calculations of per-mile tractor operating costs. For example, neither
the ATRI report nor the CSI report discusses assumptions about
depreciation, useful lifetimes of tractors, and the opportunity cost of
capital.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\679\ American Transportation Research Institute, ``An Analysis
of the Operational Costs of Trucking'', October 2008.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Based on these two scenarios, CSI estimated the change in tractor
VMT in response to a net decrease in operating costs (i.e., accounting
for fuel cost and changes in tractor purchase costs) associated with
fuel efficiency improvement of 11-31 percent for Scenario 1 and 5-16
percent for Scenario 2, without accounting for any fuel savings from
reduced rail service. When the fuel savings from reduced rail usage
were included in the calculations, they estimated the change in tractor
VMT in response to a net decrease in operating costs associated with
fuel efficiency improvement would be 9-30 percent for Scenario 1, and
3-15 percent for Scenario 2.
Note that these estimates reflect changes to tractor VMT with
respect to total operating costs, so they should theoretically be
larger than a percent change in tractor VMT with respect to a percent
change in fuel efficiency because fuel efficiency only impacts a
portion of truck operating costs (e.g., fuel and vehicle costs, but not
likely driver wages or highway tolls).
CSI included caveats associated with these calculations. For
example, their report states that freight price elasticity estimates
derived from the literature are ``heavily reliant on factors including
the type of demand measures analyzed (vehicle-miles of travel, ton-
miles, or tons), geography, trip lengths, markets served, and
commodities transported.'' These factors can increase variability in
the results. Also, estimates in CSI's study have the limitation of
using freight price elasticities to estimate the HDV rebound effect
discussed previously in Section IV.D.2.b.
(e) Simulation Model Study Using Freight Price Elasticities
Guerrero (2014) constructs a freight simulation model of the
California trucking sector to measure the impact of fuel saving
investments and fleet management on GHG emissions.\680\ Rather than
estimating these impacts using econometric analysis of raw data, the
study uses values from the existing literature. Guerrero determines
that ``. . . improving the performance of trucking also increases the
number of trips demanded because the market price also decreases. This
`rebound' effect offsets around 40-50 percent of these vehicle
efficiency emission reductions, with 9-14 percent of the effect coming
from increased pavement deterioration and 31-36 percent coming from
increased fuel combustion.'' Note that to the extent that trip lengths
also vary in response to improvements in HDV fuel efficiency, changes
in the number of HDV trips may not exactly reflect changes in the total
number of miles the vehicles are operated.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\680\ Guerrero, Sebastian. Modeling fuel saving investments and
fleet management in the trucking industry: The impact of shipment
performance on GHG emissions. Transportation Research Part E, May
2014.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
However, these findings are based on freight price elasticities,
which--as we discuss in Section IV.D.2.b and in the context of the CSI
study above--have significant limitations. The study also simulates
only one state's freight network (California), which may not be a good
representation of national activity.
(3) How the Agencies Estimated the HDV Rebound Effect for This Proposal
(a) Values Used in the Phase 1 Analysis
At the time the agencies conducted their analysis of the Phase 1
fuel efficiency and GHG emissions standards, the only evidence on the
HDV rebound effect were the previously
[[Page 40453]]
described studies from CSI and the Volpe Center.\681\ The agencies
determined that this evidence did not lend itself to a specific
quantitative value for use in the analysis. Rather, based on a
qualitative assessment of this evidence informed by the agencies' best
professional judgement, the agencies chose rebound effects of 15
percent for vocational vehicles and 5 percent for combination tractors,
both of which were toward the lower end of the range of values from
these studies. The agencies found no evidence on the rebound effect for
HD pickup trucks and vans, but concluded it would be inappropriate to
use the values selected for vocational vehicles or combination tractors
for those vehicles. Because the usage patterns of HD pickup trucks and
vans can more closely resemble those of large light-duty vehicles, the
agencies used our judgement to select the 10 percent rebound effect we
had employed in our most recent light-duty rulemaking to analyze the
Phase 1 standards for 2b/3 vehicles.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\681\ The Gately study was also available, however, the agencies
were not aware of the work at the time.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
(b) How the Agencies Analyzed VMT Rebound in This Proposal
After considering the new evidence that has become available since
the HD Phase 1 final rule, the agencies elected to continue using the
rebound effect estimates we used previously in the HD Phase 1 rule in
our analysis of Phase 2 proposed standards. In arriving at this
decision, the agencies considered the shortcomings and limitations of
the newly-available studies described previously, particularly the
limited applicability of the two published studies using data from
European nations to the U.S. context. After weighing these attributes
of the more recent studies, the agencies concluded that we had
insufficient evidence to justify revising the rebound effect values
that were used in the Phase 1 analysis.
In our assessment, we do not differentiate between short-run and
long-run rebound effects, although these effects may differ. The
vocational and combination truck estimates are based on the Volpe
Center analysis presented in the HD Phase 1 rule and the case study
from CSI. As with the HD Phase 1 rule, we did not find any literature
specifically examining the HD pickup and truck sector. Since these
vehicles are used for very different purposes than combination tractors
and vocational vehicles, and they are more similar in use to large
light-duty vehicles, we have chosen the light-duty rebound effect of 10
percent used in the final rule establishing fuel economy and GHG
standards for MYs 2017-2025 light-duty vehicles in our analysis of HD
pickup trucks and vans.
While for this proposal, the agencies have selected to use these
rebound effect values of 5 percent for combination tractors, 10 percent
for heavy duty pickup trucks and vans and 15 percent for vocational
vehicles, we acknowledge the literature shows a wide range of rebound
effect estimates. Therefore, we will review and consider revising these
estimates in the final rule, taking into consideration all available
data and analysis, including submissions from public commenters and new
research on the rebound effect.
It should be noted that the rebound estimates we have selected for
our analysis represent the VMT impact from our proposed standards with
respect to changes in the fuel cost per mile driven. As described
previously, the HDV rebound effect should ideally be a measure of the
change in fuel consumed with respect to the change in overall operating
costs due to a change in HDV fuel efficiency. Such a measure would
incorporate all impacts from our proposal, including those from
incremental increases in vehicle prices that reflect costs for
improving their fuel efficiency. Therefore, VMT rebound estimates with
respect to fuel costs per mile must be ``scaled'' to apply to total
operating costs, by dividing them by the fraction of total operating
costs accounted for by fuel.
The agencies made simplifying assumptions in the VMT rebound
analysis for this proposal, similar to the approach taken during the
development of the HD GHG Phase 1 final rule. However, for the HD Phase
2 final rulemaking, we plan to use a more comprehensive approach. Due
to timing constraints during the development of this proposal, the
agencies did not have the technology package costs for each of the
alternatives prior to the need to conduct the inventory analysis,
except for the pickup truck and van category in analysis Method A.
Therefore, the same ``overall'' VMT rebound values were used for
Alternatives 2 through 5 (as discussed in Chapter 8.3.3 of the Draft
RIA and analyzed in Chapter 6 of the Draft RIA), despite the fact that
each alternative results in a different change in incremental
technology and fuel costs. For the final rulemaking, we plan to
determine VMT rebound separately for each HDV category and for each
alternative. Tables 64 through 66 in Chapter 7 of the Draft RIA present
VMT rebound for each HDV sector that we estimated for the preferred
alternative. These VMT impacts are reflected in the estimates of total
fuel savings and reductions in emissions of GHG and other air
pollutants presented in Section VI and VII of this preamble for all
categories.
Section 9.3.3 in the draft RIA provides more details on our
assessment of HDV VMT rebound. We invite comment on our approach, the
rebound estimates, and the related assumptions we made. In particular,
we invite comment on the most appropriate methodology for factoring new
vehicle purchase or leasing costs into the per-mile operating costs.
For the purposes of this proposal, we have not taken into account any
potential fuel savings or GHG emission reductions from the rail sector
due to mode shift because estimates of this effect seem too speculative
at this time. We invite comment on this assumption, as well as
suggestions on alternative modeling frameworks that could be used to
assess mode shifting implications of our proposed regulations.
Similarly, we have not taken into account any fuel savings or GHG
emissions reductions from the potential shift in VMT from older HDVs to
newer, more efficient HDVs because we have found no evidence of this
potential effect from fuel efficiency standards. We invite comment on
suggested modeling frameworks or data that could be used to assess the
potential for activity to shift from older to newer, more efficient
HDVs in response to our proposed standards.
Note that while we focus on the VMT rebound effect in our analysis
of this proposed rule, there are at least two other types of rebound
effects discussed in the economics literature. In addition to VMT
rebound effects, there are ``indirect'' rebound effects, which refers
to the purchase of other goods or services (that consume energy) with
the costs savings from energy efficiency improvements; and ``economy-
wide'' rebound effects, which refers to the increased demand for energy
throughout the economy in response to the reduced market price of
energy that happens as a result of energy efficiency improvements.
Research on indirect and economy-wide rebound effects is nascent,
and we have not identified any that attempts to quantify indirect or
economy-wide rebound effects for HDVs. In particular, the agencies are
not aware of any data to indicate that the magnitude of indirect or
economy-wide rebound effects, if any, would be significant for this
proposed rule.\682\ Therefore, we rely
[[Page 40454]]
the same analysis of vehicle miles traveled to estimate the rebound
effect in this proposal that we did for the HD Phase 1 rule, where we
attempted to quantify only rebound effects from our rule that impact
HDV VMT. We welcome comments and any new work in this area that helps
to assess and quantify different rebound effects that could result from
improvements in HDV efficiency, including different types of more
intensive truck usage that affect fuel consumption but not VMT such as
loaded weight, truck routing, and scheduling.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\682\ One entity sought reconsideration of the Phase 1 rule on
the grounds that indirect rebound effects had not been considered by
the agencies and could negate all of the benefits of the standards.
This assertion rested on an unsupported affidavit lacking any peer
review or other indicia of objectivity. This affidavit cited only
one published study. The study cited did not deal with vehicle
efficiency, has methodological limitations (many of them
acknowledged), and otherwise was not pertinent. EPA and NHTSA thus
declined to reconsider the Phase 1 rule based on these speculative
assertions. See generally 77 FR 51703-51704, August 27, 2012 and 77
FR 51502-51503, August 24, 2012.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
In order to test the effect of alternative assumptions about the
rebound effect, NHTSA examined the sensitivity of its estimates of
benefits and costs of the Phase 2 Preferred Alternative for HD pickups
and vans to alternative assumptions about the rebound effect. While the
main analysis for pickups and vans assumes a 10 percent rebound effect,
the sensitivity analysis estimates the benefits and costs of the
proposed standards under the assumptions of 5, 15, and 20 percent
rebound effects.
Alternative values of the rebound effect change the estimates of
benefits and costs from the proposed standards in three ways. First,
higher values of the rebound effect increase the amount of additional
VMT that results from improved fuel efficiency; this increases costs
associated with additional congestion, accidents, and noise, thus
increasing total costs associated with the proposed standards.
Conversely, smaller values of the rebound effect reduce costs from
additional congestion, accidents, and noise, so they reduce total costs
of the proposed standards. Larger increases in VMT associated with
higher values of the rebound effect reduce the value of fuel savings
and related benefits (such as reductions in GHG emissions) by
progressively larger amounts, while smaller values of the rebound
effect cause smaller reductions in these benefits. At the same time,
however, a higher rebound effect generates larger benefits from
increased vehicle use, while a smaller rebound effect reduces these
benefits. Thus the impact of alternative values of the rebound effect
on total benefits from the proposed standards depends on the exact
magnitudes of these latter two effects. On balance, these three effects
can cause net benefits to increase or decrease for alternative values
of the rebound effect.
Table IX-12--Sensitivity of Preferred Alternative Impacts Under Different Assumptions About Rebound Effect for
Pickups and Vans, Using 3% Discount Rate
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Rebound effect
---------------------------------------------------------------
Main analysis Sensitivity cases using
HD pickups and vans -------------------------------- alternative rebound
assumptions
10% 5% -------------------------------
15% 20%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Fuel Reductions (Billion Gallons)............... 7.8 8.2 7.5 7.1
GHG Reductions (MMT CO2 eq)..................... 94.1 95.7 87.2 83.0
Total Costs ($ billion)......................... 5.5 5.0 6.5 7.2
Total Benefits ($ billion)...................... 23.5 23.0 22.9 22.8
Net Benefits ($ billion)........................ 18.0 18.0 16.4 15.5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table IX-12 summarizes the impact of these alternative assumptions
on fuel and GHG emissions savings, total costs, total benefits, and net
benefits. As it indicates, using a 5 percent value for the rebound
effect reduces benefits and costs of the proposed standards by
identical amounts, leaving net benefits unaffected. As the table also
shows, rebound effects of 15 percent and 20 percent increase costs and
reduce benefits compared to their values in the main analysis, thus
reducing net benefits of the proposed standards. Nevertheless, the
preferred alternative has significant net benefits under each
alternative assumption about the magnitude of the rebound effect for HD
pickups and vans. Thus, these alternative values of the rebound effect
would not have affected the agencies' selection of the preferred
alternative, as that selection is based on NHTSA's assessment of the
maximum feasible fuel efficiency standards and EPA's selection of
appropriate GHG standards to address energy security and the
environment.
F. Impact on Class Shifting, Fleet Turnover, and Sales
The agencies considered two additional potential indirect effects
which may lead to unintended consequences of the program to improve the
fuel efficiency and reduce GHG emissions from HD trucks. The next
sections cover the agencies' qualitative discussions on potential class
shifting and fleet turnover effects.
(1) Class Shifting
Heavy-duty vehicles are typically configured and purchased to
perform a function. For example, a concrete mixer truck is purchased to
transport concrete, a combination tractor is purchased to move freight
with the use of a trailer, and a Class 3 pickup truck could be
purchased by a landscape company to pull a trailer carrying lawnmowers.
The purchaser makes decisions based on many attributes of the vehicle,
including the gross vehicle weight rating of the vehicle, which in part
determines the amount of freight or equipment that can be carried. If
the proposed Phase 2 standards impact either the performance of the
vehicle or the marginal cost of the vehicle relative to the other
vehicle classes, then consumers may choose to purchase a different
vehicle, resulting in the unintended consequence of increased fuel
consumption and GHG emissions in-use.
The agencies, along with the NAS panel, found that there is little
or no literature which evaluates class shifting between trucks.\683\
NHTSA and EPA qualitatively evaluated the proposed rules in light of
potential class shifting. The agencies looked at four potential cases
of shifting:--From light-duty pickup trucks to heavy-duty pickup
trucks; from sleeper cabs to day cabs;
[[Page 40455]]
from combination tractors to vocational vehicles; and within vocational
vehicles.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\683\ See 2010 NAS Report, page 152.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Light-duty pickup trucks, those with a GVWR of less than 8,500 lbs,
are currently regulated under the existing GHG/CAFE Phase 1 program and
will meet GHG/CAFE Phase 2 emission standards beginning in 2017. The
increased stringency of the light-duty 2017-2025 MY vehicle rule has
led some to speculate that vehicle consumers may choose to purchase
heavy-duty pickup trucks that are currently regulated under the HD
Phase 1 program if the cost of the light-duty regulation is high
relative to the cost to buy the larger heavy-duty pickup trucks. Since
fuel consumption and GHG emissions rise significantly with vehicle
mass, a shift from light-duty trucks to heavy-duty trucks would likely
lead to higher fuel consumption and GHG emissions, an untended
consequence of the regulations. Given the significant price premium of
a heavy-duty truck (often five to ten thousand dollars more than a
light-duty pickup), we believe that such a class shift would be
unlikely even absent this program. These proposed rules would continue
to diminish any incentive for such a class shift because they would
narrow the GHG and fuel efficiency performance gap between light-duty
and heavy-duty pickup trucks. The proposed regulations for the HD
pickup trucks, and similarly for vans, are based on similar
technologies and therefore reflect a similar expected increase in cost
when compared to the light-duty GHG regulation. Hence, the combination
of the two regulations provides little incentive for a shift from
light-duty trucks to HD trucks. To the extent that our proposed
regulation of heavy-duty pickups and vans could conceivably encourage a
class shift towards lighter pickups, this unintended consequence would
in fact be expected to lead to lower fuel consumption and GHG emissions
as the smaller light-duty pickups have significantly better fuel
economy ratings than heavy-duty pickup trucks.
The projected cost increases for this proposed action differ
between Class 8 day cabs and Class 8 sleeper cabs, reflecting our
expectation that compliance with the proposed standards would lead
truck consumers to specify sleeper cabs equipped with APUs while day
cab consumers would not. Since Class 8 day cab and sleeper cab trucks
perform essentially the same function when hauling a trailer, this
raises the possibility that the higher cost for an APU equipped sleeper
cab could lead to a shift from sleeper cab to day cab trucks. We do not
believe that such an intended consequence would occur for the following
reasons. The addition of a sleeper berth to a tractor cab is not a
consumer-selectable attribute in quite the same way as other vehicle
features. The sleeper cab provides a utility that long-distance
trucking fleets need to conduct their operations--an on-board sleeping
berth that lets a driver comply with federally-mandated rest periods,
as required by the Department of Transportation Federal Motor Carrier
Safety Administration's hours-of-service regulations. The cost of
sleeper trucks is already higher than the cost of day cabs, yet the
fleets that need this utility purchase them.\684\ A day cab simply
cannot provide this utility with a single driver. The need for this
utility would not be changed even if the additional costs to reduce
greenhouse gas emissions from sleeper cabs exceed those for reducing
greenhouse gas emissions from day cabs.\685\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\684\ A baseline tractor price of a new day cab is $89,500
versus $113,000 for a new sleeper cab based on information gathered
by ICF in the ``Investigation of Costs for Strategies to Reduce
Greenhouse Gas Emissions for Heavy-Duty On-Road Vehicles'', July
2010. Page 3. Docket Identification Number EPA-HQ-OAR-2014--0827.
\685\ The average marginal cost difference between sleeper cabs
and day cabs in the proposal is roughly $2,500.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
A trucking fleet could instead decide to put its drivers in hotels
in lieu of using sleeper berths, and switch to day cabs. However, this
is unlikely to occur in any great number, since the added cost for the
hotel stays would far overwhelm differences in the marginal cost
between day and sleeper cabs. Even if some fleets do opt to buy hotel
rooms and switch to day cabs, they would be highly unlikely to purchase
a day cab that was aerodynamically worse than the sleeper cab they
replaced, since the need for features optimized for long-distance
hauling would not have changed. So in practice, there would likely be
little difference to the environment for any switching that might
occur. Further, while our projected costs assume the purchase of an APU
for compliance, in fact our proposed regulatory structure would allow
compliance using a near zero cost software utility that eliminates
tractor idling after five minutes. Using this compliance approach, the
cost difference between a Class 8 sleeper cab and day cab due to our
proposed regulations is small. We are proposing this alternative
compliance approach reflecting that some sleeper cabs are used in team
driving situations where one driver sleeps while the other drives. In
that situation, an APU is unnecessary since the tractor is continually
being driven when occupied. When it is parked, it would automatically
eliminate any additional idling through the shutdown software. If
trucking businesses choose this option, then costs based on purchase of
APUs may overestimate the costs of this program to this sector.
Class shifting from combination tractors to vocational vehicles may
occur if a customer deems the additional marginal cost of tractors due
to the regulation to be greater than the utility provided by the
tractor. The agencies initially considered this issue when deciding
whether to include Class 7 tractors with the Class 8 tractors or
regulate them as vocational vehicles. The agencies' evaluation of the
combined vehicle weight rating of the Class 7 shows that if these
vehicles were treated significantly differently from the Class 8
tractors, then they could be easily substituted for Class 8 tractors.
Therefore, the agencies are proposing to continue to include both
classes in the tractor category. The agencies believe that a shift from
tractors to vocational vehicles would be limited because of the ability
of tractors to pick up and drop off trailers at locations which cannot
be done by vocational vehicles.
The agencies do not envision that the proposed regulatory program
would cause class shifting within the vocational vehicle class. The
marginal cost difference due to the regulation of vocational vehicles
is minimal. The cost of LRR tires on a per tire basis is the same for
all vocational vehicles so the only difference in marginal cost of the
vehicles is due to the number of axles. The agencies believe that the
utility gained from the additional load carrying capability of the
additional axle would outweigh the additional cost for heavier
vehicles.\686\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\686\ The proposed rule projects the difference in costs between
the HHD and MHD vocational vehicle technologies is approximately
$30.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
In conclusion, NHTSA and EPA believe that the proposed regulatory
structure for HD trucks would not significantly change the current
competitive and market factors that determine purchaser preferences
among truck types. Furthermore, even if a small amount of shifting
would occur, any resulting GHG impacts would likely to be negligible
because any vehicle class that sees an uptick in sales is also being
regulated for fuel efficiency. Therefore, the agencies did not include
an impact of class shifting on the vehicle populations used to assess
the benefits of the proposed program.
[[Page 40456]]
(2) Fleet Turnover and Sales Effects
A regulation that affects the cost to purchase and/or operate
trucks could affect whether a consumer decides to purchase a new truck
and the timing of that purchase. The term pre-buy refers to the idea
that truck purchases may occur earlier than otherwise planned to avoid
the additional costs associated with a new regulatory requirement.
Slower fleet turnover, or low-buys, may occur when owners opt to keep
their existing truck rather than purchase a new truck due to the
incremental cost of the regulation.
The 2010 NAS HD Report discussed the topics associated with HD
truck fleet turnover. NAS noted that there is some empirical evidence
of pre-buy behavior in response to the 2004 and 2007 heavy-duty engine
emission standards, with larger impacts occurring in response to higher
costs.\687\ However, those regulations increased upfront costs to firms
without any offsetting future cost savings from reduced fuel purchases.
In summary, NAS stated that:
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\687\ Committee to Assess Fuel Economy Technologies for Medium-
and Heavy-Duty Vehicles; National Research Council; Transportation
Research Board (2010). ``Technologies and Approaches to Reducing the
Fuel Consumption of Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicles,'' (hereafter,
``NAS Report''). Washington, DC, the National Academies Press.
Available electronically from the National Academies Press Web site
at https://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=12845. pp. 150-151.
. . . during periods of stable or growing demand in the freight
sector, pre-buy behavior may have significant impact on purchase
patterns, especially for larger fleets with better access to capital
and financing. Under these same conditions, smaller operators may
simply elect to keep their current equipment on the road longer, all
the more likely given continued improvements in diesel engine
durability over time. On the other hand, to the extent that fuel
economy improvements can offset incremental purchase costs, these
impacts will be lessened. Nevertheless, when it comes to efficiency
investments, most heavy-duty fleet operators require relatively
quick payback periods, on the order of two to three years.\688\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\688\ See NAS Report, Note 687, page 151.
The proposed regulations are projected to return fuel savings to
the truck owners that offset the cost of the regulation within a few
years. The effects of the regulation on purchasing behavior and sales
will depend on the nature of the market failures and the extent to
which firms consider the projected future fuel savings in their
purchasing decisions.
If trucking firms account for the rapid payback, they are unlikely
to strategically accelerate or delay their purchase plans at additional
cost in capital to avoid a regulation that will lower their overall
operating costs. As discussed in Section IX. A. this scenario may occur
if this proposed program reduces uncertainty about fuel-saving
technologies. More reliable information about ways to reduce fuel
consumption allows truck purchasers to evaluate better the benefits and
costs of additional fuel savings, primarily in the original vehicle
market, but possibly in the resale market as well. In addition, the
proposed standards are expected to lead manufacturers to install more
fuel-saving technologies and promote their purchase; the increased
availability and promotion may encourage sales.
Other market failures may leave open the possibility of some pre-
buy or delayed purchasing behavior. Firms may not consider the full
value of the future fuel savings for several reasons. For instance,
truck purchasers may not want to invest in fuel efficiency because of
uncertainty about fuel prices. Another explanation is that the resale
market may not fully recognize the value of fuel savings, due to lack
of trust of new technologies or changes in the uses of the vehicles.
Lack of coordination (also called split incentives--see Section IX. A.)
between truck purchasers (who may emphasize the up-front costs of the
trucks) and truck operators, who would like the fuel savings, can also
lead to pre-buy or delayed purchasing behavior. If these market
failures prevent firms from fully internalizing fuel savings when
deciding on vehicle purchases, then pre-buy and delayed purchase could
occur and could result in a slight decrease in the GHG benefits of the
regulation.
Thus, whether pre-buy or delayed purchase is likely to play a
significant role in the truck market depends on the specific behaviors
of purchasers in that market. Without additional information about
which scenario is more likely to be prevalent, the agencies are not
projecting a change in fleet turnover characteristics due to this
regulation.
Whether vehicle sales appear to be affected by the HD Phase 1
standards could provide some insight into the impacts of the proposed
standards. At the time of this proposed rule, sales data are not yet
available for 2014 model year, the first year of the Phase 1 standards.
In addition, any trends in sales are likely to be affected by
macroeconomic conditions, which have been recovering since 2009-2010.
As a result, it is unlikely to be possible, even when vehicle sales
data are available, to separate the effects of the existing standards
from other confounding factors.
G. Monetized GHG Impacts
(1) Monetized CO2 Impacts--The Social Cost of Carbon (SC-
CO2)
We estimate the global social benefits of CO2 emission
reductions expected from the proposed heavy-duty GHG and fuel
efficiency standards using the social cost of carbon (SC-
CO2) estimates presented in the 2013 Technical Support
Document: Technical Update of the Social Cost of Carbon for Regulatory
Impact Analysis Under Executive Order 12866 (2013 SCC TSD).\689\ (The
SC-CO2 estimates are presented in Table IX-11). We refer to
these estimates, which were developed by the U.S. government, as ``SC-
CO2 estimates.'' The SC-CO2 is a metric that
estimates the monetary value of impacts associated with marginal
changes in CO2 emissions in a given year. It includes a wide
range of anticipated climate impacts, such as net changes in
agricultural productivity and human health, property damage from
increased flood risk, and changes in energy system costs, such as
reduced costs for heating and increased costs for air conditioning. It
is used in regulatory impact analyses to quantify the benefits of
reducing CO2 emissions, or the disbenefit from increasing
emissions.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\689\ Docket ID EPA-HQ-OAR-2014-0827, Technical Support
Document: Technical Update of the Social Cost of Carbon for
Regulatory Impact Analysis Under Executive Order 12866, Interagency
Working Group on Social Cost of Carbon, with participation by
Council of Economic Advisers, Council on Environmental Quality,
Department of Agriculture, Department of Commerce, Department of
Energy, Department of Transportation, Environmental Protection
Agency, National Economic Council, Office of Energy and Climate
Change, Office of Management and Budget, Office of Science and
Technology Policy, and Department of Treasury (May 2013, Revised
November 2013). Available at: https://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/omb/assets/inforeg/technical-update-social-cost-of-carbon-for-regulator-impact-analysis.pdf.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
The SC-CO2 estimates used in this analysis were
developed over many years, using the best science available, and with
input from the public. Specifically, an interagency working group (IWG)
that included EPA, DOT, and other executive branch agencies and offices
used three integrated assessment models (IAMs) to develop the SC-
CO2 estimates and recommended four global values for use in
regulatory analyses. The SC-CO2 estimates were first
released in February 2010 \690\ and
[[Page 40457]]
updated in 2013 using new versions of each IAM. These estimates were
published in the 2013 SCC TSD. The 2013 update did not revisit the 2010
modeling decisions (e.g., with regard to the discount rate, reference
case socioeconomic and emission scenarios or equilibrium climate
sensitivity). Rather, improvements in the way damages are modeled are
confined to those that have been incorporated into the latest versions
of the models by the developers themselves and used for analyses in
peer-reviewed publications. The 2010 SCC Technical Support Document
(2010 SCC TSD) provides a complete discussion of the methods used to
develop these estimates and the 2013 SCC TSD presents and discusses the
updated estimates.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\690\ Docket ID EPA-HQ-OAR-2009-0472-114577, Technical Support
Document: Social Cost of Carbon for Regulatory Impact Analysis Under
Executive Order 12866, Interagency Working Group on Social Cost of
Carbon, with participation by the Council of Economic Advisers,
Council on Environmental Quality, Department of Agriculture,
Department of Commerce, Department of Energy, Department of
Transportation, Environmental Protection Agency, National Economic
Council, Office of Energy and Climate Change, Office of Management
and Budget, Office of Science and Technology Policy, and Department
of Treasury (February 2010). Also available at: https://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/omb/inforeg/for-agencies/Social-Cost-of-Carbon-for-RIA.pdf.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
The 2010 SCC TSD noted a number of limitations to the SC-
CO2 analysis, including the incomplete way in which the IAMs
capture catastrophic and non-catastrophic impacts, their incomplete
treatment of adaptation and technological change, uncertainty in the
extrapolation of damages to high temperatures, and assumptions
regarding risk aversion. Current IAMs do not assign value to all of the
important physical, ecological, and economic impacts of climate change
recognized in the climate change literature due to a lack of precise
information on the nature of damages and because the science
incorporated into these models understandably lags behind the most
recent research. Nonetheless, these estimates and the discussion of
their limitations represent the best available information about the
social benefits of CO2 reductions to inform benefit-cost
analysis; see RIA of this rule and the SCC TSDs for additional details.
The new versions of the models used to estimate the values presented
below offer some improvements in these areas, although further work is
warranted.
Accordingly, EPA and other agencies continue to engage in research
on modeling and valuation of climate impacts with the goal to improve
these estimates. The EPA and other federal agencies have considered the
extensive public comments on ways to improve SC-CO2
estimation received via the notice and comment periods that were part
of numerous rulemakings. In addition, OMB's Office of Information and
Regulatory Affairs sought public comment on the approach used to
develop the SC-CO2 estimates (78 FR 70586, November 26,
2013). The comment period ended on February 26, 2014, and OMB is
reviewing the comments received. OMB also responded in January 2014 to
concerns submitted in a Request for Correction on the SCC TSDs.\691\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\691\ OMB's 1/24/14 response to the petition is available at
https://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/omb/inforeg/ssc-rfc-under-iqa-response.pdf.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
The four global SC-CO2 estimates, updated in 2013, are
as follows: $13, $46, $68, and $140 per metric ton of CO2
emissions in the year 2020 (2012$).\692\ The first three values are
based on the average SC-CO2 from the three IAMs, at discount
rates of 5, 3, and 2.5 percent, respectively. SC-CO2
estimates for several discount rates are included because the
literature shows that the SC-CO2 is quite sensitive to
assumptions about the discount rate, and because no consensus exists on
the appropriate rate to use in an intergenerational context (where
costs and benefits are incurred by different generations). The fourth
value is the 95th percentile of the SC-CO2 from all three
models at a 3 percent discount rate. It is included to represent
higher-than-expected impacts from temperature change further out in the
tails of the SC-CO2 distribution (representing less likely,
but potentially catastrophic, outcomes). The SC-CO2
increases over time because future emissions are expected to produce
larger incremental damages as economies grow and physical and economic
systems become more stressed in response to greater climate change. The
SC-CO2 values are presented in Table IX-11.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\692\ The 2013 SCC TSD presents the SC-CO2 estimates
in $2007. These estimates were adjusted to 2012$ using the GDP
Implicit Price Deflator. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Table 1.1.9
Implicit Price Deflators for Gross Domestic Product; last revised on
March 27, 2014.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Applying the global SC-CO2 estimates, shown in Table IX-
13, to the estimated reductions in domestic CO2 emissions
for the proposed program, yields estimates of the dollar value of the
climate related benefits for each analysis year. These estimates are
then discounted back to the analysis year using the same discount rate
used to estimate the SC-CO2. For internal consistency, the
annual benefits are discounted back to net present value terms using
the same discount rate as each SC-CO2 estimate (i.e. 5
percent, 3 percent, and 2.5 percent) rather than the discount rates of
3 percent and 7 percent used to derive the net present value of other
streams of costs and benefits of the proposed rule.\693\ The SC-
CO2 benefit estimates for each calendar year are shown in
Table IX-14. The SC-CO2 benefit estimates for each model
year are shown in Table IX-15.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\693\ See more discussion on the appropriate discounting of
climate benefits using SC-CO2 in the 2010 SCC TSD. Other
benefits and costs of proposed regulations unrelated to
CO2 emissions are discounted at the 3% and 7% rates
specified in OMB guidance for regulatory analysis.
Table IX-13--Social Cost of CO\2\, 2012-2050 \a\
(in 2012$ per metric ton)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
3%, 95th
Calendar year 5% Average 3% Average 2.5% Average Percentile
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2012................................ $12 $37 $58 $100
2015................................ 12 40 61 120
2020................................ 13 46 69 140
2025................................ 15 51 74 150
2030................................ 17 56 81 170
2035................................ 20 60 86 190
2040................................ 23 66 93 210
2045................................ 26 71 99 220
2050................................ 28 77 100 240
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note:
\a\ The SC-CO2values are dollar-year and emissions-year specific and have been rounded to two significant
digits. Unrounded numbers from the 2013 SCC TSD were used to calculate the CO2 benefits.
[[Page 40458]]
Table IX-14--Upstream and Downstream Annual CO2 Benefits for the Given SC-CO2 Value \a\ Using Method B and
Relative to the Less Dynamic Baseline
[millions of 2012$] \b\
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
3%, 95th
Calendar year 5% Average 3% Average 2.5% Average Percentile
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2018................................ $13 $43 $65 $130
2019................................ 26 91 130 270
2020................................ 40 140 210 420
2021................................ 92 330 500 1,000
2022................................ 170 590 880 1,800
2023................................ 250 860 1,300 2,600
2024................................ 400 1,300 1,900 4,000
2025................................ 540 1,800 2,600 5,500
2026................................ 720 2,300 3,400 7,000
2027................................ 890 2,900 4,200 8,900
2028................................ 1,100 3,500 5,100 11,000
2029................................ 1,300 4,200 5,900 13,000
2030................................ 1,500 4,800 6,900 15,000
2035................................ 2,500 7,400 11,000 23,000
2040................................ 3,300 9,700 14,000 30,000
2050................................ 5,000 14,000 19,000 42,000
NPV................................. 22,000 100,000 160,000 320,000
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Notes:
\a\ The SC-CO2 values are dollar-year and emissions-year specific.
\b\ For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less
dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
Table IX-15--Upstream and Downstream Discounted Model Year Lifetime CO2 Benefits for the Given SC-CO2 Value
Using Method B and Relative to the Less Dynamic Baseline
[millions of 2012$] a b
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
3%, 95th
Model year 5% Average 3% Average 2.5% Average Percentile
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2018................................ $93 $380 $580 $1,100
2019................................ 90 370 570 1,100
2020................................ 87 360 560 1,100
2021................................ 520 2,200 3,400 6,600
2022................................ 540 2,300 3,500 6,900
2023................................ 550 2,300 3,600 7,200
2024................................ 870 3,700 5,800 11,000
2025................................ 900 3,900 6,100 12,000
2026................................ 920 4,000 6,300 12,000
2027................................ 1,100 4,800 7,600 15,000
2028................................ 1,100 4,800 7,600 15,000
2029................................ 1,100 4,900 7,700 15,000
Sum................................. 7,800 34,000 53,000 100,000
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Notes:
\a\ The SC-CO2 values are dollar-year and emissions-year specific.
\b\ For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less
dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
(2) Sensitivity Analysis--Monetized Non-CO2 GHG Impacts
One limitation of the primary benefits analysis is that it does not
include the valuation of non-CO2 GHG impacts (e.g.,
CH4, N2O, HFC-134a). Specifically, the 2010 and
2013 SCC TSDs do not include estimates of the social costs of non-
CO2 GHG emissions using an approach analogous to the one
used to estimate the SC-CO2. However, EPA recognizes that
non-CO2 GHG impacts associated with this rulemaking (e.g.,
net reductions in CH4,N2O, and HFC-134a) would
provide additional benefits to society. To understand the potential
implication of omitting these benefits, EPA has conducted sensitivity
analysis using two approaches: (1) An approximation approach based on
the global warming potentials (GWP) of non-CO2 GHGs, which
has been used in previous rulemakings, and (2) a set of recently
published SC-CH4 and SC-N2O estimates that are
consistent with the modeling assumptions underlying the SC-
CO2 estimates (Marten et al. 2014). This section presents
estimates of the non-CO2 benefits of the proposed rulemaking
using both approaches. Other unquantified non-CO2 benefits
are discussed in this section as well. Additional details are provided
in the RIA of these rules.
Currently, EPA is undertaking a peer review of the application of
the Marten et al. (2014) non-CO2 social cost estimates in
regulatory analysis. Pending a favorable peer review, EPA plans to
include monetized benefits of CH4 and N2O
emission reductions in the main benefit-cost analysis of the RIA for
the final rule, using the directly modeled estimates of SC-
CH4 and SC-N2O from Marten et al. EPA seeks
comments on the use of directly modeled estimates for the social cost
of non-CO2 GHGs.
[[Page 40459]]
(a) Non-CO2 GHG Benefits Based on the GWP Approximation
Approach
In the absence of directly modeled estimates, one potential method
for approximating the value of marginal non-CO2 GHG emission
reductions is to convert non-CO2 emissions reductions to
CO2-equivalents that may then be valued using the SC-
CO2. Conversion to CO2-equivalents is typically
based on the global warming potentials (GWPs) for the non-
CO2 gases. This approach, henceforth referred to as the
``GWP approach,'' has been used in sensitivity analyses to estimate the
non-CO2 benefits in previous EPA rulemakings (see U.S. EPA
2012, 2013).\694\ EPA has not presented these estimates in a main
benefit-cost analysis due to the limitations associated with using the
GWP approach to value changes in non-CO2 GHG emissions, and
considered the GWP approach as an interim method of analysis until
social cost estimates for non-CO2 GHGs, consistent with the
SC-CO2 estimates, were developed.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\694\ U.S. EPA. (2012). ``Regulatory impact analysis supporting
the 2012 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency final new source
performance standards and amendments to the national emission
standards for hazardous air pollutants for the oil and natural gas
industry.'' Retrieved from https://www.epa.gov/ttn/ecas/regdata/RIAs/oil_natural_gas_final_neshap_nsps_ria.pdf.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
The GWP is a simple, transparent, and well-established metric for
assessing the relative impacts of non-CO2 emissions compared
to CO2 on a purely physical basis. However, as discussed
both in the 2010 SCC TSD and previous rulemakings (e.g., U.S. EPA 2012,
2013), the GWP approximation approach to measuring non-CO2
GHG benefits has several well-documented limitations. These metrics are
not ideally suited for use in benefit-cost analyses to approximate the
social cost of non-CO2 GHGs because the approach would
assume all subsequent linkages leading to damages are linear in
radiative forcing, which would be inconsistent with the most recent
scientific literature. Detailed discussion of limitations of the GWP
approach can be found in the RIA.
Similar to the approach used in the RIA of the Final Rulemaking for
2017-2025 Light-Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Emission Standards and
Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards (U.S. EPA, 2013), EPA applies
the GWP approach to estimate the benefits associated with reductions of
CH4, N2O and HFCs in each calendar year. Under
the GWP Approach, EPA converted CH4, N2O and HFC-
134a to CO2 equivalents using the AR4 100-year GWP for each
gas: CH4 (25), N2O (298), and HFC-134a
(1,430).\695\ These CO2-equivalent emission reductions are
multiplied by the SC-CO2 estimate corresponding to each year
of emission reductions. As with the calculation of annual benefits of
CO2 emission reductions, the annual benefits of non-
CO2 emission reductions based on the GWP approach are
discounted back to net present value terms using the same discount rate
as each SC-CO2 estimate. The estimated non-CO2
GHG benefits using the GWP approach are presented in Table IX-16
through Table IX-18. The total net present value of the GHG benefits
for this proposed rulemaking would increase by about $760 million to
$11 billion (2012$), depending on discount rate, or roughly 3 percent
if these non-CO2 estimates were included.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\695\ Source: Table 2.14 (Errata). Lifetimes, radiative
efficiencies and direct (except for CH4) GWPs relative to
CO2. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report ``Climate Change 2007:
Working Group I: The Physical Science Basis.''
Table IX-16--Annual Upstream and Downstream CH4 Benefits for the Given SC-CO2 Value Using Method B and Relative
to the Less Dynamic Baseline, Using the GWP Approach a b
[$Millions of 2012$] \b\
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CH4
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Calendar year 3%, 95th
5% Average 3% Average 2.5% Average Percentile
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2018................................ $0.3 $1.1 $1.6 $3.2
2019................................ 0.6 2.2 3.3 6.6
2020................................ 1.0 3.5 5.2 10
2021................................ 3.1 11 17 33
2022................................ 6.0 20 30 62
2023................................ 8.8 30 45 93
2024................................ 14 46 68 140
2025................................ 19 62 91 190
2026................................ 25 79 120 240
2027................................ 30 99 140 300
2028................................ 36 120 170 360
2029................................ 43 140 200 420
2030................................ 49 160 230 480
2035................................ 82 240 350 760
2040................................ 110 320 440 990
2050................................ 160 440 600 1,400
NPV................................. 730 3,400 5,400 11,000
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Notes:
\a\ The SC-CO2 values are dollar-year and emissions-year specific
\b\ For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less
dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
[[Page 40460]]
Table IX-17--Annual Upstream and Downstream N2O Benefits for the Given SC-CO2 Value Using Method B and Relative
to the Less Dynamic Baseline, Using the GWP Approach \a\ \b\
[$Millions of 2012$] \b\
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
N2O
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Calendar year 3%, 95th
5% Average 3% Average 2.5% Average Percentile
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2018................................ $0.0 $0.0 $0.1 $0.2
2019................................ 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3
2020................................ 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.5
2021................................ 0.1 0.4 0.5 1.1
2022................................ 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.9
2023................................ 0.3 0.9 1.4 2.8
2024................................ 0.4 1.4 2.1 4.4
2025................................ 0.6 2.0 2.9 6.0
2026................................ 0.8 2.6 3.7 7.8
2027................................ 1.0 3.2 4.7 10
2028................................ 1.2 3.9 5.7 12
2029................................ 1.5 4.6 6.6 14
2030................................ 1.6 5.3 7.7 16
2035................................ 2.8 8.3 12 26
2040................................ 3.8 11 15 34
2050................................ 5.6 15 21 47
NPV................................. 25 120 180 360
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Notes:
\a\ The SC-CO2 values are dollar-year and emissions-year specific.
\b\ For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less
dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
Table IX-18--Annual Upstream and Downstream HFC-134a Benefits for the Given SC-CO2 Value Using Method B and
Relative to the Less Dynamic Baseline, Using the GWP Approach \a\ \b\
[$Millions of 2012$] \b\
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HFC-134a
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Calendar year 3%, 95th
5% Average 3% Average 2.5% Average Percentile
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2018................................ $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0
2019................................ 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2020................................ 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2021................................ 0.2 0.8 1.3 2.6
2022................................ 0.5 1.7 2.6 5.3
2023................................ 0.8 2.7 4.0 8.1
2024................................ 1.1 3.7 5.4 11
2025................................ 1.4 4.7 6.9 14
2026................................ 1.8 5.9 8.6 18
2027................................ 2.2 7.1 10 22
2028................................ 2.5 8.3 12 25
2029................................ 3.0 10 14 29
2030................................ 3.4 11 16 34
2035................................ 5.2 15 22 48
2040................................ 6.1 18 25 56
2050................................ 8.4 23 31 71
NPV................................. 44 200 320 630
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Notes:
\a\ The SC-CO2 values are dollar-year and emissions-year specific.
\b\ For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less
dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
(b) Non-CO2 GHG Benefits Based on Directly Modeled Estimates
Several researchers have directly estimated the social cost of non-
CO2 emissions using integrated assessment models (IAMs),
though the number of such estimates is small compared to the large
number of SC-CO2 estimates available in the literature. As
discussed in previous RIAs (e.g., EPA 2012), there is considerable
variation among these published estimates in the models and input
assumptions they employ. These studies differ in the emission
perturbation year, employ a wide range of constant and variable
discount rate specifications, and consider a range of baseline
socioeconomic and emissions scenarios that have been developed over the
last 20 years. However, none of the other published estimates of the
social cost of non-CO2 GHG are consistent with the SC-
CO2 estimates, and most are likely underestimates due to
changes in the underlying science since their publication.
Recently, a paper by Marten et al. (2014) provided the first set of
published SC-CH4 and SC-N2O
[[Page 40461]]
estimates that are consistent with the modeling assumptions underlying
the SC-CO2.\696\ Specifically, the estimation approach of
Marten et al. (2014) used the same set of three IAMs, five
socioeconomic-emissions scenarios, equilibrium climate sensitivity
distribution, three constant discount rates, and aggregation approach
used to develop the SC-CO2 estimates.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\696\ Marten, A.L., E.A. Kopits, C.W. Griffiths, S.C. Newbold &
A. Wolverton (2014). Incremental CH4 and N2O
mitigation benefits consistent with the U.S. Government's SC-
CO2 estimates, Climate Policy, DOI: 10.1080/
14693062.2014.912981.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
The resulting SC-CH4 and SC-N2O estimates are
presented in Table IX-19. More detailed discussion of their
methodology, results and a comparison to other published estimates can
be found in the RIA and in Marten et al. (2014). The tables do not
include HFC-134a because EPA is unaware of analogous estimates.
Table IX-19--Social Cost of CH4 and N2O, 2012-2050 \a\ [in 2012$ per metric ton]
[Source: Marten et al., 2014]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SC-CH4 SC-N2O
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Year 2.5% 3% 95th 2.5% 3% 95th
5% Average 3% Average Average percentile 5% Average 3% Average Average percentile
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2012............................................ $440 $1,000 $1,400 $2,800 $4,000 $14,000 $20,000 $37,000
2015............................................ 500 1,200 1,500 3,100 4,400 15,000 22,000 39,000
2020............................................ 590 1,300 1,700 3,500 5,200 16,000 24,000 44,000
2025............................................ 710 1,500 19,000 4,100 6,000 18,000 27,000 50,000
2030............................................ 840 1,700 2,300 4,600 7,000 20,000 29,000 55,000
2035............................................ 990 2,000 2,500 5,400 8,100 23,000 32,000 61,000
2040............................................ 1,200 2,300 2,800 6,000 9,300 25,000 35,000 67,000
2045............................................ 1,300 2,500 3,100 6,800 11,000 27,000 38,000 73,000
2050............................................ 1,500 2,700 3,300 7,400 12,000 29,000 41,000 80,000
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note:
\a\ The values are emissions-year specific and have been rounded to two significant digits. Unrounded numbers were used to calculate the GHG benefits.
The application of directly modeled estimates from Marten et al.
(2014) to benefit-cost analysis of a regulatory action is analogous to
the use of the SC-CO2 estimates. Specifically, the SC-
CH4 and SC-N2O estimates in Table IX-19 are used
to monetize the benefits of changes in CH4 and
N2O emissions expected as a result of the proposed
rulemaking. Forecast changes in CH4 and N2O
emissions in a given year resulting from the regulatory action are
multiplied by the SC-CH4 and SC-N2O estimate for
that year, respectively. To obtain a present value estimate, the
monetized stream of future non-CO2 benefits are discounted
back to the analysis year using the same discount rate used to estimate
the social cost of the non-CO2 GHG emission changes.
The CH4 and N2O benefits based on Marten et
al. (2014) are presented for each calendar year in Table IX-20.
Including these benefits would increase the total net present value of
the GHG benefits for this proposed rulemaking by about $1.5 billion to
$12 billion (2012$), or roughly 4 to 7 percent, depending on discount
rate.
Table IX-20--Annual Upstream and Downstream non-CO2 GHG Benefits for the Given SC-Non-CO2 Value Using Method B and Relative to the Less Dynamic
Baseline, Using the Directly Modeled Approach \a\ \b\
[Millions of 2012$] \c\
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CH4 N2O
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Calendar year 2.5% 3% 95th 2.5% 3% 95th
5% Average 3% Average Average percentile 5% Average 3% Average Average percentile
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2018............................................ $0.6 $1.3 $1.6 $3.3 $0.0 $0.1 $0.1 $0.2
2019............................................ 1.1 2.6 3.4 6.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3
2020............................................ 1.8 3.9 5.2 10 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5
2021............................................ 5.8 13 17 35 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.2
2022............................................ 11 24 31 65 0.3 0.8 1.1 2.1
2023............................................ 17 35 49 97 0.4 1.1 1.7 3.1
2024............................................ 26 56 72 150 0.6 1.8 2.5 4.7
2025............................................ 35 74 95 200 0.8 2.4 3.5 6.5
2026............................................ 46 99 130 260 1.0 3.0 4.5 8.4
2027............................................ 57 120 150 320 1.3 4.0 5.8 11
2028............................................ 69 140 190 390 1.6 4.8 6.9 13
2029............................................ 82 170 220 460 1.9 5.8 8.2 15
2030............................................ 95 190 260 520 2.2 6.5 9.3 18
2035............................................ 160 330 400 870 3.7 10 15 28
2040............................................ 230 430 540 1,200 5.2 14 19 37
2050............................................ 350 620 770 1,700 7.9 20 27 53
NPV............................................. 1,500 4,600 6,400 12,000 34 150 230 400
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Notes:
[[Page 40462]]
\a\ The SC-CH4 and SC-N2O values are dollar-year and emissions-year specific.
\b\ Note that net present discounted values of reduced GHG emissions is are calculated differently than other benefits. The same discount rate used to
discount the value of damages from future emissions (SC-CH4 and SC-N2O at 5, 3, and 2.5 percent) is used to calculate net present value discounted
values of SC-CH4 and SC-N2O for internal consistency. Refer to SCC TSD for more detail.
\c\ For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic
baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
As illustrated above, compared to the use of directly modeled
estimates the GWP-based approximation approach underestimates the
climate benefits of the CH4 emission reductions by 12
percent to 52 percent and the climate benefits of N2O
reductions by 10 percent to 26 percent, depending on the discount rate
assumption.
(c) Additional Non-CO2 GHGs Co-Benefits
In determining the relative social costs of the different gases,
the Marten et al. (2014) analysis accounts for differences in lifetime
and radiative efficiency between the non-CO2 GHGs and
CO2. The analysis also accounts for radiative forcing
resulting from methane's effects on tropospheric ozone and
stratospheric water vapor, and for at least some of the fertilization
effects of elevated carbon dioxide concentrations. However, there exist
several other differences between these gases that have not yet been
captured in this analysis, namely the non-radiative effects of methane-
driven elevated tropospheric ozone levels on human health, agriculture,
and ecosystems, and the effects of carbon dioxide on ocean
acidification. Inclusion of these additional non-radiative effects
would potentially change both the absolute and relative value of the
various gases.
Of these effects, the human health effect of elevated tropospheric
ozone levels resulting from methane emissions is the closest to being
monetized in a way that would be comparable to the SCC. Premature
ozone-related cardiopulmonary deaths resulting from global increases in
tropospheric ozone concentrations produced by the methane oxidation
process have been the focus of a number of studies over the past decade
(e.g., West et al. 2006 \697\ ). Recent studies have produced an
estimate of a monetized benefit of methane emissions reductions, with
results on the order of $1,000 per metric ton of CH4
emissions reduced (Anenberg et al. 2012 \698\; Shindell et al. 2012
\699\), an estimate similar in magnitude to the climate benefits of
CH4 reductions estimated by the Marten et al. or GWP
methods. However, though EPA is continuing to monitor this area of
research as it evolves, EPA is not applying them for benefit estimates
at this time.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\697\ West JJ, Fiore AM, Horowitz LW, Mauzerall DL (2006) Global
health benefits of mitigating ozone pollution with methane emission
controls. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 103(11):3988-3993. doi:10.1073/
pnas.0600201103.
\698\ Anenberg SC, Schwartz J, Shindell D, Amann M, Faluvegi G,
Klimont Z, . . ., Vignati E (2012) Global air quality and health co-
benefits of mitigating near-term climate change through methane and
black carbon emission controls. Environ Health Perspect 120(6):831.
doi:10.1289/ehp.1104301.
\699\ Shindell D, Kuylenstierna JCI, Vignati E, van Dingenen R,
Amann M, Klimont Z, . . . , Fowler D (2012) Simultaneously
Mitigating Near-Term Climate Change and Improving Human Health and
Food Security. Science 335 (6065):183-189. doi:10.1126/
science.1210026.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
H. Monetized Non-GHG Health Impacts
This section analyzes the economic benefits from reductions in
health and environmental impacts resulting from non-GHG emission
reductions that can be expected to occur as a result of the proposed
Phase 2 standards. CO2 emissions are predominantly the
byproduct of fossil fuel combustion processes that also produce
criteria and hazardous air pollutant emissions. The vehicles that are
subject to the proposed standards are also significant sources of
mobile source air pollution such as direct PM, NOX, VOCs and
air toxics. The proposed standards would affect exhaust emissions of
these pollutants from vehicles and would also affect emissions from
upstream sources that occur during the refining and distribution of
fuel. Changes in ambient concentrations of ozone, PM2.5, and
air toxics that would result from the proposed standards are expected
to affect human health by reducing premature deaths and other serious
human health effects, as well as other important improvements in public
health and welfare.
It is important to quantify the health and environmental impacts
associated with the proposed standards because a failure to adequately
consider these ancillary impacts could lead to an incorrect assessment
of their costs and benefits. Moreover, the health and other impacts of
exposure to criteria air pollutants and airborne toxics tend to occur
in the near term, while most effects from reduced climate change are
likely to occur only over a time frame of several decades or longer.
Although EPA typically quantifies and monetizes the health and
environmental impacts related to both PM and ozone in its regulatory
impact analyses (RIAs), it was unable to do so in time for this
proposal. Instead, EPA has applied PM-related ``benefits per-ton''
values to its estimated emission reductions as an interim approach to
estimating the PM-related benefits of the proposal. 700 701
EPA also characterizes the health and environmental impacts that will
be quantified and monetized for the final rulemaking.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\700\ Fann, N., Baker, K.R., and Fulcher, C.M. (2012).
Characterizing the PM2.5-related health benefits of emission
reductions for 17 industrial, area and mobile emission sectors
across the U.S., Environment International, 49, 241-151, published
online September 28, 2012.
\701\ See also: https://www.epa.gov/airquality/benmap/sabpt.html.
The current values available on the Web page have been updated since
the publication of the Fann et al., 2012 paper. For more information
regarding the updated values, see: https://www.epa.gov/airquality/benmap/models/Source_Apportionment_BPT_TSD_1_31_13.pdf (accessed
September 9, 2014).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
This section is split into two sub-sections: the first presents the
benefits-per-ton values used to monetize the benefits from reducing
population exposure to PM associated with the proposed standards; the
second explains what PM- and ozone-related health and environmental
impacts EPA will quantify and monetize in the analysis for the final
rule. EPA bases its analyses on peer-reviewed studies of air quality
and health and welfare effects and peer-reviewed studies of the
monetary values of public health and welfare improvements, and is
generally consistent with benefits analyses performed for the analysis
of the final Tier 3 Vehicle Rule,\702\ the final 2012 p.m. NAAQS
Revision,\703\ and the final
[[Page 40463]]
2017-2025 Light Duty Vehicle GHG Rule.\704\
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\702\ U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. (2014). Control of
Air Pollution from Motor Vehicles: Tier 3 Motor Vehicle Emission and
Fuel Standards Final Rule: Regulatory Impact Analysis, Assessment
and Standards Division, Office of Transportation and Air Quality,
EPA-420-R-14-005, March 2014. Available on the Internet: https://www.epa.gov/otaq/documents/tier3/420r14005.pdf.
\703\ U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. (2012). Regulatory
Impact Analysis for the Final Revisions to the National Ambient Air
Quality Standards for Particulate Matter, Health and Environmental
Impacts Division, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, EPA-
452-R-12-005, December 2012. Available on the Internet: https://www.epa.gov/ttnecas1/regdata/RIAs/finalria.pdf.
\704\ U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA). (2012).
Regulatory Impact Analysis: Final Rulemaking for 2017-2025 Light-
Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Emission Standards and Corporate Average
Fuel Economy Standards, Assessment and Standards Division, Office of
Transportation and Air Quality, EPA-420-R-12-016, August 2012.
Available on the Internet at: https://www.epa.gov/otaq/climate/documents/420r12016.pdf.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Though EPA is characterizing the changes in emissions associated
with toxic pollutants, we are not able to quantify or monetize the
human health effects associated with air toxic pollutants for either
the proposal or the final rule analyses (see Section VIII.G.1.b.iii for
more information). Please refer to Section VIII for more information
about the air toxics emissions impacts associated with the proposed
standards.
(1) Economic Value of Reductions in Criteria Pollutants
As described in Section VIII, the proposed standards would reduce
emissions of several criteria and toxic pollutants and their
precursors. In this analysis, EPA estimates the economic value of the
human health benefits associated with the resulting reductions in
PM2.5 exposure. Due to analytical limitations with the
benefit per ton method, this analysis does not estimate benefits
resulting from reductions in population exposure to other criteria
pollutants such as ozone.\705\ Furthermore, the benefits per-ton
method, like all air quality impact analyses, does not monetize all of
the potential health and welfare effects associated with reduced
concentrations of PM2.5.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\705\ The air quality modeling that underlies the PM-related
benefit per ton values also produced estimates of ozone levels
attributable to each sector. However, the complex non-linear
chemistry governing ozone formation prevented EPA from developing a
complementary array of ozone benefit per ton values. This limitation
notwithstanding, we anticipate that the ozone-related benefits
associated with reducing emissions of NOX and VOC could
be substantial.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
This analysis uses estimates of the benefits from reducing the
incidence of the specific PM2.5-related health impacts
described below. These estimates, which are expressed per ton of
PM2.5-related emissions eliminated by the proposed rules,
represent the monetized value of human health benefits (including
reductions in both premature mortality and premature morbidity) from
reducing each ton of directly emitted PM2.5 or its
precursors (SO2 and NOX), from a specified
source. Ideally, the human health benefits would be estimated based on
changes in ambient PM2.5 as determined by full-scale air
quality modeling. However, the length of time needed to prepare the
necessary emissions inventories, in addition to the processing time
associated with the modeling itself, has precluded us from performing
air quality modeling for this proposal. We will conduct this modeling
for the final rule.
The dollar-per-ton estimates used in this analysis are provided in
Table IX-21. As the table indicates, these values differ among
pollutants, and also depend on their original source, because emissions
from different sources can result in different degrees of population
exposure and resulting health impacts. In the summary of costs and
benefits, Section IX.K of this preamble, EPA presents the monetized
value of PM-related improvements associated with the proposal.
Table IX-21--Benefits-per-Ton Values
[Thousands, 2012$] \a\
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
On-road mobile sources Upstream sources \d\
Year \c\ -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Direct PM2.5 SO2 NOX Direct PM2.5 SO2 NOX
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Estimated Using a 3 Percent Discount Rate \b\
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2016.................................................... $380-$850 $20-$45 $7.7-$18 $330-$750 $69-$160 $6.8-$16
2020.................................................... 400-910 22-49 8.1-18 350-790 75-170 7.4-17
2025.................................................... 440-1,000 24-55 8.8-20 390-870 83-190 8.1-18
2030.................................................... 480-1,100 27-61 9.6-22 420-950 91-200 8.7-20
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Estimated Using a 7 Percent Discount Rate \b\
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2016.................................................... $340-$770 $18-$41 $6.9-$16 $290-$670 $63-$140 $6.2-$14
2020.................................................... 370-820 20-44 7.4-17 320-720 67-150 6.6-15
2025.................................................... 400-910 22-49 8.0-18 350-790 75-170 7.3-17
2030.................................................... 430-980 24-55 8.6-20 380-850 81-180 7.9-18
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Notes:
\a\ The benefit-per-ton estimates presented in this table are based on a range of premature mortality estimates derived from the ACS study (Krewski et
al., 2009) and the Six-Cities study (Lepeule et al., 2012). See Chapter VIII of the RIA for a description of these studies.
\b\ The benefit-per-ton estimates presented in this table assume either a 3 percent or 7 percent discount rate in the valuation of premature mortality
to account for a twenty-year segmented premature mortality cessation lag.
\c\ Benefit-per-ton values were estimated for the years 2016, 2020, 2025 and 2030. We hold values constant for intervening years (e.g., the 2016 values
are assumed to apply to years 2017-2019; 2020 values for years 2021-2024; 2030 values for years 2031 and beyond).
\d\ We assume for the purpose of this analysis that total ``upstream emissions'' are most appropriately monetized using the refinery sector benefit per-
ton values. The majority of upstream emission reductions associated with the proposed rule are related to domestic onsite refinery emissions and
domestic crude production. While total upstream emissions also include storage and transport sources, as well as sources upstream from the refinery,
we have chosen to simply apply the refinery values. Full-scale air quality modeling, and the associated benefits analysis, will include upstream
emissions from all sources in the FRM.
The benefit-per-ton technique has been used in previous analyses,
including EPA's 2017-2025 Light-Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Rule,\706\
the Reciprocating Internal Combustion Engine rules,707 708
and the Residential
[[Page 40464]]
Wood Heaters NSPS.\709\ Table IX-22 shows the quantified
PM2.5-related co-benefits captured in those benefit per-ton
estimates, as well as unquantified effects the benefit per-ton
estimates are unable to capture.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\706\ U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA). (2012).
Regulatory Impact Analysis: Final Rulemaking for 2017-2025 Light-
Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Emission Standards and Corporate Average
Fuel Economy Standards, Assessment and Standards Division, Office of
Transportation and Air Quality, EPA-420-R-12-016, August 2012.
Available on the Internet at: https://www.epa.gov/otaq/climate/documents/420r12016.pdf.
\707\ U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA). (2013).
Regulatory Impact Analysis for the Reconsideration of the Existing
Stationary Compression Ignition (CI) Engines NESHAP, Office of Air
Quality Planning and Standards, Research Triangle Park, NC. January.
EPA-452/R-13-001. Available at <https://www.epa.gov/ttnecas1/regdata/RIAs/RICE_NESHAPreconsideration_Compression_Ignition_Engines_RIA_final2013_EPA.pdf.
\708\ U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA). (2013).
Regulatory Impact Analysis for Reconsideration of Existing
Stationary Spark Ignition (SI) RICE NESHAP, Office of Air Quality
Planning and Standards, Research Triangle Park, NC. January. EPA-
452/R-13-002. Available at <https://www.epa.gov/ttnecas1/regdata/RIAs/NESHAP_RICE_Spark_Ignition_RIA_finalreconsideration2013_EPA.pdf>
.
\709\ U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA). (2015).
Regulatory Impact Analysis for Residential Wood Heaters NSPS
Revision. Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Research
Triangle Park, NC. February. EPA-452/R-15-001. Available at <https://www2.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2015-02/documents/20150204-residential-wood-heaters-ria.pdf>.
Table IX-22--Human Health and Welfare Effects of PM2.5
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Quantified and monetized Unquantified effects
Pollutant/ effect in primary estimates Changes in:
------------------------------------------------------------------------
PM2.5............... Adult premature Chronic and subchronic
mortality. bronchitis cases.
Acute bronchitis........ Strokes and
cerebrovascular
disease.
Hospital admissions: Low birth weight.
Respiratory and Pulmonary function.
cardiovascular.
Emergency room visits Chronic respiratory
for asthma. diseases other than
chronic bronchitis.
Nonfatal heart attacks Non-asthma respiratory
(myocardial infarction). emergency room visits.
Lower and upper Visibility.
respiratory illness.
Minor restricted- Household soiling.
activity days.
Work loss days..........
Asthma exacerbations
(asthmatic population).
Infant mortality........
------------------------------------------------------------------------
A more detailed description of the benefit-per-ton estimates is
provided in Chapter VIII of the Draft RIA that accompanies this
rulemaking. Readers interested in reviewing the complete methodology
for creating the benefit-per-ton estimates used in this analysis can
consult EPA's ``Technical Support Document: Estimating the Benefit per
Ton of Reducing PM2.5 Precursors from 17 Sectors.'' \710\
Readers can also refer to Fann et al. (2012) \711\ for a detailed
description of the benefit-per-ton methodology.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\710\ For more information regarding the updated values, see:
https://www.epa.gov/airquality/benmap/models/Source_Apportionment_BPT_TSD_1_31_13.pdf (accessed September 9,
2014).
\711\ Fann, N., Baker, K.R., and Fulcher, C.M. (2012).
Characterizing the PM2.5-related health benefits of emission
reductions for 17 industrial, area and mobile emission sectors
across the U.S., Environment International, 49, 241-151, published
online September 28, 2012.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
As Table IX-20 indicates, EPA projects that the per-ton values for
reducing emissions of non-GHG pollutants from both vehicle use and
upstream sources such as fuel refineries will increase over time.\712\
These projected increases reflect rising income levels, which increase
affected individuals' willingness to pay for reduced exposure to health
threats from air pollution.\713\ They also reflect future population
growth and increased life expectancy, which expands the size of the
population exposed to air pollution in both urban and rural areas,
especially among older age groups with the highest mortality risk.\714\
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\712\ As we discuss in the emissions chapter of the DRIA
(Chapter V), the rule would yield emission reductions from upstream
refining and fuel distribution due to decreased petroleum
consumption.
\713\ The issue is discussed in more detail in the 2012 p.m.
NAAQS RIA, Section 5.6.8. See U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.
(2012). Regulatory Impact Analysis for the Final Revisions to the
National Ambient Air Quality Standards for Particulate Matter,
Health and Environmental Impacts Division, Office of Air Quality
Planning and Standards, EPA-452-R-12-005, December 2012. Available
on the internet: https://www.epa.gov/ttnecas1/regdata/RIAs/finalria.pdf.
\714\ For more information about EPA's population projections,
please refer to the following: https://www.epa.gov/air/benmap/models/BenMAPManualAppendicesAugust2010.pdf (See Appendix K).
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(2) Human Health and Environmental Benefits for the Final Rule
(a) Human Health and Environmental Impacts
To model the ozone and PM air quality benefits of the final rule,
EPA will use the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model (see
Section VIII for a description of the CMAQ model). The modeled ambient
air quality data will serve as an input to the Environmental Benefits
Mapping and Analysis Program--Community Edition (BenMAP CE).\715\
BenMAP CE is a computer program developed by EPA that integrates a
number of the modeling elements used in previous RIAs (e.g.,
interpolation functions, population projections, health impact
functions, valuation functions, analysis and pooling methods) to
translate modeled air concentration estimates into health effects
incidence estimates and monetized benefits estimates.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\715\ Information on BenMAP, including downloads of the
software, can be found at https://www.epa.gov/air/benmap/.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Chapter VIII in the DRIA that accompanies this proposal lists the
co-pollutant health effect concentration-response functions EPA will
use to quantify the non-GHG incidence impacts associated with the
proposed heavy-duty vehicle standards. These include PM- and ozone-
related premature mortality, nonfatal heart attacks, hospital
admissions (respiratory and cardiovascular), emergency room visits,
acute bronchitis, minor restricted activity days, and days of work and
school lost.
(b) Monetized Impacts
To calculate the total monetized impacts associated with quantified
health impacts, EPA applies values derived from a number of sources.
For premature mortality, EPA applies a value of a statistical life
(VSL) derived from the mortality valuation literature. For certain
health impacts, such as a number of respiratory-related ailments, EPA
applies willingness-to-pay estimates derived from the valuation
literature. For the remaining health impacts, EPA applies values
derived from current cost-of-illness and/or wage estimates. Chapter
VIII in the DRIA that accompanies this proposal presents the monetary
values EPA will apply to changes in the incidence of health and welfare
effects associated with reductions in non-GHG pollutants that will
occur when these GHG control strategies are finalized.
[[Page 40465]]
(c) Other Unquantified Health and Environmental Impacts
In addition to the co-pollutant health and environmental impacts
EPA will quantify for the analysis of the final standard, there are a
number of other health and human welfare endpoints that EPA will not be
able to quantify or monetize because of current limitations in the
methods or available data. These impacts are associated with emissions
of air toxics (including benzene, 1,3-butadiene, formaldehyde,
acetaldehyde, acrolein, naphthalene and ethanol), ambient ozone, and
ambient PM2.5 exposures. Chapter VIII of the DRIA lists
these unquantified health and environmental impacts.
While there will be impacts associated with air toxic pollutant
emission changes that result from the final standard, EPA will not
attempt to monetize those impacts. This is primarily because currently
available tools and methods to assess air toxics risk from mobile
sources at the national scale are not adequate for extrapolation to
incidence estimations or benefits assessment. The best suite of tools
and methods currently available for assessment at the national scale
are those used in the National-Scale Air Toxics Assessment (NATA).
EPA's Science Advisory Board specifically commented in their review of
the 1996 NATA that these tools were not yet ready for use in a
national-scale benefits analysis, because they did not consider the
full distribution of exposure and risk, or address sub-chronic health
effects.\716\ While EPA has since improved the tools, there remain
critical limitations for estimating incidence and assessing benefits of
reducing mobile source air toxics.\717\ EPA continues to work to
address these limitations; however, EPA does not anticipate having
methods and tools available for national-scale application in time for
the analysis of the final rules.\718\
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\716\ Science Advisory Board. 2001. NATA--Evaluating the
National-Scale Air Toxics Assessment for 1996--an SAB Advisory.
https://www.epa.gov/ttn/atw/sab/sabrev.html.
\717\ Examples include gaps in toxicological data, uncertainties
in extrapolating results from high-dose animal experiments to
estimate human effects at lower does, limited ambient and personal
exposure monitoring data, and insufficient economic research to
support valuation of the health impacts often associated with
exposure to individual air toxics. See Gwinn et al., 2011. Meeting
Report: Estimating the Benefits of Reducing Hazardous Air
Pollutants--Summary of 2009 Workshop and Future Considerations.
Environ Health Perspect. Jan 2011; 119(1): 125-130.
\718\ In April, 2009, EPA hosted a workshop on estimating the
benefits of reducing hazardous air pollutants. This workshop built
upon the work accomplished in the June 2000 in an earlier (2000)
Science Advisory Board/EPA Workshop on the Benefits of Reductions in
Exposure to Hazardous Air Pollutants, which generated thoughtful
discussion on approaches to estimating human health benefits from
reductions in air toxics exposure, but no consensus was reached on
methods that could be implemented in the near term for a broad
selection of air toxics. Please visit https://epa.gov/air/toxicair/2009workshop.html for more information about the workshop and its
associated materials.
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I. Energy Security Impacts
The Phase 2 standards are designed to require improvements in the
fuel efficiency of medium- and heavy-duty vehicles and, thereby, reduce
fuel consumption and GHG emissions. In turn, the Phase 2 standards help
to reduce U.S. petroleum imports. A reduction of U.S. petroleum imports
reduces both financial and strategic risks caused by potential sudden
disruptions in the supply of imported petroleum to the U.S., thus
increasing U.S. energy security. This section summarizes the agency's
estimates of U.S. oil import reductions and energy security benefits of
the proposed Phase 2 standards. Additional discussion of this issue can
be found in Chapter 8 of the draft RIA.
(1) Implications of Reduced Petroleum Use on U.S. Imports
U.S. energy security is broadly defined as the continued
availability of energy sources at an acceptable price. Most discussion
of U.S. energy security revolves around the topic of the economic costs
of U.S. dependence on oil imports. However, it is not imports alone,
but both imports and consumption of petroleum from all sources and
their role in economic activity, that expose the U.S. to risk from
price shocks in the world oil price. The relative significance of
petroleum consumption and import levels for the macroeconomic
disturbances that follow from oil price shocks is not fully understood.
Recognizing that changing petroleum consumption will change U.S.
imports, this assessment of oil costs focuses on those incremental
social costs that follow from the resulting changes in imports,
employing the usual oil import premium measure. The agencies request
comment on how to incorporate the impact of changes in oil consumption,
rather than imports exclusively, into our energy security analysis.
While the U.S. has reduced its consumption and increased its
production of oil in recent years, it still relies on oil from
potentially unstable sources. In addition, oil exporters with a large
share of global production have the ability to raise the price of oil
by exerting the monopoly power associated with a cartel, the
Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), to restrict oil
supply relative to demand. These factors contribute to the
vulnerability of the U.S. economy to episodic oil supply shocks and
price spikes. In 2012, U.S. net expenditures for imports of crude oil
and petroleum products were $290 billion and expenditures on both
imported oil and domestic petroleum and refined products totaled $634
billion (see Figure IX-1).\719\ Import costs have declined since 2011
but total oil expenditures (domestic and imported) remain near
historical highs, at roughly triple the inflation-adjusted levels
experienced by the U.S. from 1986 to 2002.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\719\ See EIA Annual Energy Review, various editions. For data
2011-2013, and projected data: EIA Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) 2014
(Reference Case). See Table 11, file ``aeotab_11.xls.''
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
In 2010, just over 40 percent of world oil supply came from OPEC
nations and the AEO 2014 (Early Release) \720\ projects that this share
will rise gradually to over 45 percent by 2040. Approximately 31
percent of global supply is from Middle East and North African
countries alone, a share that is also expected to grow. Measured in
terms of the share of world oil resources or the share of global oil
export supply, rather than oil production, the concentration of global
petroleum resources in OPEC nations is even larger. As another measure
of concentration, of the 137 countries/principalities that export
either crude or refined products, the top 12 have recently accounted
for over 55 percent of exports.\721\ Eight of these countries are
members of OPEC, and a ninth is Russia.\722\ In a market where even a
1-2 percent supply loss can raise prices noticeably, and where a 10
percent supply loss could lead to an unprecedented price shock, this
regional concentration is of concern.\723\
[[Page 40466]]
Historically, the countries of the Middle East have been the source of
eight of the ten major world oil disruptions,\724\ with the ninth
originating in Venezuela, an OPEC country, and the tenth being
Hurricanes Katrina and Rita.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\720\ The agencies used the AEO 2014 (Early Release) since this
version of AEO was available at the time that fuel savings from the
rule were being estimated. The AEO 2014 (Early Release) and the AEO
2014 have very similar energy market and economic projections. For
example, world oil prices are the same between the two forecasts.
\721\ Based on data from the CIA, combining various recent
years, https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2242rank.html.
\722\ The other three are Norway, Canada, and the EU, an
exporter of product.
\723\ For example, the 2005 Hurricanes Katrina/Rita and the 2011
Libyan conflict both led to a 1.8 percent reduction in global crude
supply. While the price impact of the latter is not easily
distinguished given the rapidly rising post-recession prices, the
former event was associated with a 10-15 percent world oil price
increase. There are a range of smaller events with smaller but
noticeable impacts. Somewhat larger events, such as the 2002/3
Venezuelan Strike and the War in Iraq, corresponded to about a 2.9
percent sustained loss of supply, and was associated with a 28
percent world oil price increase.
\724\ IEA 2011 ``IEA Response System for Oil Supply
Emergencies.''
[GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] TP13JY15.017
The agencies used EPA's MOVES model to estimate the reductions in
U.S. fuel consumption due to this proposed rule for vocational vehicles
and tractors. For HD pickups and vans, the agencies used both DOT's
CAFE model and EPA's MOVES model to estimate the fuel consumption
impacts. (Detailed explanations of the MOVES and CAFE models can be
found in Chapters 5 and 10 of the draft RIA. See IX.C of the preamble
for estimates of reduced fuel consumption from the proposed rule).
Based on a detailed analysis of differences in U.S. fuel consumption,
petroleum imports, and imports of petroleum products, the agencies
estimate that approximately 90 percent of the reduction in fuel
consumption resulting from adopting improved GHG emission standards and
fuel efficiency standards is likely to be reflected in reduced U.S.
imports of crude oil and net imported petroleum products.\726\ Thus, on
balance, each gallon of fuel saved as a consequence of the HD GHG and
fuel efficiency standards is anticipated to reduce total U.S. imports
of petroleum by 0.90 gallons.\727\ Based upon the fuel savings
estimated by the MOVES/CAFE models and the 90 percent oil import
factor, the reduction in U.S. oil imports from these proposed rules are
estimated for the years 2020, 2025, 2030, 2040, and 2050 (in millions
of barrels per day (MMBD)) in Table IX-25 below. For comparison
purposes, Table IX-25 also shows U.S. imports of crude oil in 2020,
2025, 2030 and 2040 as projected by DOE in the Annual Energy Outlook
2014 (Early Release) Reference Case. U.S. Gross Domestic
[[Page 40467]]
Product (GDP) is projected to grow by roughly 59 percent over the same
time frame (e.g., from 2020 to 2040) in the same AEO projections.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\725\ For historical data: EIA Annual Energy Review, various
editions. For data 2011-2013, and projected data: EIA Annual Energy
Outlook (AEO) 2014 (Reference Case). See Table 11, file
``aeotab_11.xls''.
\726\ We looked at changes in crude oil imports and net
petroleum products in the Reference Case in comparison to two cases
from the AEO 2014. The two cases are the Low (i.e., Economic Growth)
Demand and Low VMT cases. See the spreadsheet ``Impacts on Fuel
Demands and ImportsJan9.xlsx'' comparing the AEO 2014 Reference Case
to the Low Demand Case. See the spreadsheet ``Impact of Fuel Demand
and Impacts January20VMT.xlsl'' for a comparison of AEO 2014
Reference Case and the Low VMT Case. We also considered a paper
entitled ``Effect of a U.S. Demand Reduction on Imports and Domestic
Supply Levels'' by Paul Leiby, 4/16/2013. This paper suggests that
``Given a particular reduction in oil demand stemming from a policy
or significant technology change, the fraction of oil use savings
that shows up as reduced U.S. imports, rather than reduced U.S.
supply, is actually quite close to 90 percent, and probably close to
95 percent''.
\727\ The NHTSA analysis uses a slightly different value that
was estimated using unique runs of the National Energy Modeling
System (NEMS) that forms the foundation of the Annual Energy
Outlook. NHTSA ran a version of NEMS from 2012 (which would have
been used in the 2013 AEO) and computed the change in imports of
petroleum products with and without the Phase 1 MDHD program to
estimate the relationship between changes in fuel consumption and
oil imports. The analysis found that reducing gasoline consumption
by 1 gallon reduces imports of refined gasoline by 0.06 gallons and
domestic refining from imported crude by 0.94 gallons. Similarly,
one gallon of diesel saved by the Phase 1 rule was estimated to
reduce imports of refined diesel by 0.26 gallons and domestic
refining of imported crude by 0.74 gallons. The agencies will update
this analysis for the Final Rule using the model associated with
AEO2014, modeling the Phase 2 Preferred Alternative explicitly.
Table IX-23--Projected U.S. Imports of Crude Oil and U.S. Oil Import
Reductions Resulting From the Proposed Phase 2 Heavy-Duty Vehicle Rule
in 2020, 2025, 2030, 2040 and 2050 Using Method B and Relative to the
Less Dynamic Baseline
[Millions of barrels per day (MMBD)] a
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Reductions
Year U.S. oil from proposed
imports HD rule
------------------------------------------------------------------------
2020.................................... 4.93 0.01
2025.................................... 5.04 0.16
2030.................................... 5.35 0.37
2040.................................... 5.92 0.65
2050.................................... * 0.78
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Notes:
* The AEO 2014 (Early Release) only projects energy market and economic
trends through 2040.
\a\ For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section
I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more
dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
(2) Energy Security Implications
In order to understand the energy security implications of reducing
U.S. oil imports, EPA has worked with Oak Ridge National Laboratory
(ORNL), which has developed approaches for evaluating the social costs
and energy security implications of oil use. The energy security
estimates provided below are based upon a methodology developed in a
peer-reviewed study entitled, ``The Energy Security Benefits of Reduced
Oil Use, 2006-2015,'' completed in March 2008. This ORNL study is an
updated version of the approach used for estimating the energy security
benefits of U.S. oil import reductions developed in a 1997 ORNL
Report.\728\ For EPA and NHTSA rulemakings, the ORNL methodology is
updated periodically to account for forecasts of future energy market
and economic trends reported in the U.S. Energy Information
Administration's Annual Energy Outlook.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\728\ Leiby, Paul N., Donald W. Jones, T. Randall Curlee, and
Russell Lee, Oil Imports: An Assessment of Benefits and Costs, ORNL-
6851, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, November, 1997.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
When conducting this analysis, ORNL considered the full cost of
importing petroleum into the U.S. The full economic cost is defined to
include two components in addition to the purchase price of petroleum
itself. These are: (1) The higher costs for oil imports resulting from
the effect of U.S. demand on the world oil price (i.e., the ``demand''
or ``monopsony'' costs); and (2) the risk of reductions in U.S.
economic output and disruption to the U.S. economy caused by sudden
disruptions in the supply of imported oil to the U.S. (i.e.,
macroeconomic disruption/adjustment costs).
The literature on the energy security for the last two decades has
routinely combined the monopsony and the macroeconomic disruption
components when calculating the total value of the energy security
premium. However, in the context of using a global value for the Social
Cost of Carbon (SCC) the question arises: How should the energy
security premium be used when some benefits from the rule, such as the
benefits of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, are calculated from a
global perspective? Monopsony benefits represent avoided payments by
U.S. consumers to oil producers that result from a decrease in the
world oil price as the U.S. decreases its demand for oil. Although
there is clearly an overall benefit to the U.S. when considered from a
domestic perspective, the decrease in price due to decreased demand in
the U.S. also represents a loss to oil producing countries, one of
which is the United States. Given the redistributive nature of this
monopsony effect from a global perspective, and the fact that an
increasing fraction of it represents a transfer between U.S. consumers
and producers, it is excluded in the energy security benefits
calculations for these proposed rules.
In contrast, the other portion of the energy security premium, the
avoided U.S. macroeconomic disruption and adjustment cost that arises
from reductions in U.S. petroleum imports, does not have offsetting
impacts outside of the U.S., and, thus, is included in the energy
security benefits estimated for these proposed rules. To summarize, the
agencies have included only the avoided macroeconomic disruption
portion of the energy security benefits to estimate the monetary value
of the total energy security benefits of these proposed rules.
For this rulemaking, ORNL updated the energy security premiums by
incorporating the most recent oil price forecast and energy market
trends, particularly regional oil supplies and demands, from the AEO
2014 (Early Release) into its model.\729\ ORNL developed energy
security premium estimates for a number of different years. Table IX-24
provides estimates for energy security premiums for the years 2020,
2025, 2030 and 2040,\730\ as well as a breakdown of the components of
the energy security premiums for each year. The components of the
energy security premiums and their values are discussed below.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\729\ Leiby, P., Factors Influencing Estimate of Energy Security
Premium for Heavy-Duty Phase 2 Proposed Rule, 11/1/2014, Oak Ridge
National Laboratory.
\730\ AEO 2014 (Early Release) forecasts energy market trends
and values only to 2040. The post-2040 energy security premium
values are assumed to be equal to the 2040 estimate.
[[Page 40468]]
Table IX-24--Energy Security Premiums in 2020, 2025, 2030 and 2040
[2012$/Barrel] *
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Avoided
macroeconomic
Year (range) Monopsony (range) disruption/ Total mid-point
adjustment costs (range)
(range)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2020................................................... $4.91 $6.35 $11.25
(1.63-9.15) (3.07-10.15) (6.67-16.53)
2025................................................... $5.46 $7.29 $12.75
(1.81-10.47) (3.57-11.67) (7.58-18.65)
2030................................................... $6.04 $8.39 $14.43
(2.00-11.67) (4.12-13.41) (8.54-21.13)
2040................................................... $7.17 $10.74 $17.91
(2.32-14.03) (5.36-17.22) -26.14)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note:
* Top values in each cell are the midpoints, the values in parentheses are the 90 percent confidence intervals.
(a) Effect of Oil Use on the Long-Run Oil Price
The first component of the full economic costs of importing
petroleum into the U.S. follows from the effect of U.S. import demand
on the world oil price over the long-run. Because the U.S. is a
sufficiently large purchaser of global oil supplies, its purchases can
affect the world oil price. This monopsony power means that increases
in U.S. petroleum demand can cause the world price of crude oil to
rise, and conversely, that reduced U.S. petroleum demand can reduce the
world price of crude oil. Thus, one benefit of decreasing U.S. oil
purchases, due to improvements in the fuel efficiency of medium- and
heavy-duty vehicles, is the potential decrease in the crude oil price
paid for all crude oil purchased.
A variety of oil market and economic factors have contributed to
lowering the estimated monopsony premium compared to monopsony premiums
cited in recent EPA/NHTSA rulemakings. Three principal factors
contribute to lowering the monopsony premium: Lower world oil prices,
lower U.S. oil imports and less responsiveness of world oil prices to
changes in U.S. oil demand. For example, between 2012 (using the AEO
2012 (Early Release)) and 2014 (using the AEO 2014 (Early Release)),
there has been a general downward revision in world oil price
projections in the near term (e.g. 19 percent in 2020) and a sharp
reduction in projected U.S. oil imports in the near term, due to
increased U.S. supply (i.e., a 41 percent reduction in U.S. oil imports
by 2017 and a 36 percent reduction in 2020). Over the longer term,
oil's share of total U.S. imports is projected to gradually increase
after 2020 but still remain 27 percent below the AEO2012 (Early
Release) projected level in 2035.
Another factor influencing the monopsony premium is that U.S.
demand on the global oil market is projected to decline, suggesting
diminished overall influence and some reduction in the influence of
U.S. oil demand on the world price of oil. Outside of the U.S.,
projected OPEC supply remains roughly steady as a share of world oil
supply compared to the AEO2012 (Early Release). OPEC's share of world
oil supply outside of the U.S. actually increases slightly. Since OPEC
supply is estimated to be more price sensitive than non-OPEC supply,
this means that under AEO2014 (Early Release) world oil supply is
slightly more responsive to changes in U.S. oil demand. Together, these
factors suggest that changes in U.S. oil import reductions have a
somewhat smaller effect on the long-run world oil price than changes
based on 2012 estimates.
These changes in oil price and import levels lower the monopsony
portion of energy security premium since this portion of the security
premium is related to the change in total U.S. oil import costs that is
achieved by a marginal reduction in U.S oil imports. Since both the
price and the quantity of oil imports are lower, the monopsony premium
component is 46-57 percent lower over the years 2017-2025 than the
estimates based upon the AEO 2012 (Early Release) projections.
There is disagreement in the literature about the magnitude of the
monopsony component, and its relevance for policy analysis. Brown and
Huntington (2013),\731\ for example, argue that the United States'
refusal to exercise its market power to reduce the world oil price does
not represent a proper externality, and that the monopsony component
should not be considered in calculations of the energy security
externality. However, they also note in their earlier discussion paper
(Brown and Huntington 2010) \732\ that this is a departure from the
traditional energy security literature, which includes sustained wealth
transfers associated with stable but higher-price oil markets. On the
other hand, Greene (2010) \733\ and others in prior literature (e.g.,
Toman 1993) \734\ have emphasized that the monopsony cost component is
policy-relevant because the world oil market is non-competitive and
strongly influenced by cartelized and government-controlled supply
decisions. Thus, while sometimes couched as an externality, Greene
notes that the monopsony component is best viewed as stemming from a
completely different market failure than an externality (Ledyard
2008),\735\ yet still implying marginal social costs to importers.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\731\ Brown, Stephen P.A. and Hillard G. Huntington. 2013.
Assessing the U.S. Oil Security Premium. Energy Economics, vol. 38,
pp 118-127.
\732\ Reassessing the Oil Security Premium. RFF Discussion Paper
Series, (RFF DP 10-05). doi: RFF DP 10-05
\733\ Greene, D.L. 2010. Measuring energy security: Can the
United States achieve oil independence? Energy Policy, 38(4), 1614-
1621. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2009.01.041.
\734\ Reassessing the Oil Security Premium. RFF Discussion Paper
Series, (RFF DP 10-05). doi:RFF DP 10-05.
\735\ Ledyard, John O. ``Market Failure.'' The New Palgrave
Dictionary of Economics. Second Edition. Eds. Steven N. Durlauf and
Lawrence E. Blume. Palgrave Macmillan, 2008.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
There is also a question about the ability of gradual, long-term
reductions, such as those resulting from this proposed rule, to reduce
the world oil price in the presence of OPEC's monopoly power. OPEC is
currently the world's marginal petroleum supplier, and could
conceivably respond to gradual reductions in U.S. demand with gradual
reductions in supply over the course of several years as the fuel
[[Page 40469]]
savings resulting from this rule grow. However, if OPEC opts for a
long-term strategy to preserve its market share, rather than maintain a
particular price level (as they have done recently in response to
increasing U.S. petroleum production), reduced demand would create
downward pressure on the global price. The Oak Ridge analysis assumes
that OPEC does respond to demand reductions over the long run, but
there is still a price effect in the model. Under the mid-case
behavioral assumption used in the premium calculations, OPEC responds
by gradually reducing supply to maintain market share (consistent with
the long-term self-interested strategy suggested by Gately (2004,
2007)).\736\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\736\ Gately, Dermot 2004. ``OPEC's Incentives for Faster Output
Growth'', The Energy Journal, 25 (2):75-96; Gately, Dermot 2007.
``What Oil Export Levels Should We Expect From OPEC?'', The Energy
Journal, 28(2):151-173.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
It is important to note that the decrease in global petroleum
prices resulting from this rulemaking could spur increased consumption
of petroleum in other sectors and countries, leading to a modest uptick
in GHG emissions outside of the United States. This increase in global
fuel consumption could offset some portion of the GHG reduction
benefits associated with these proposed rules. The agencies have not
quantified this increase in global GHG emissions. We request comments,
data sources and methodologies for how global rebound effects may be
quantified.
(b) Macroeconomic Disruption Adjustment Costs
The second component of the oil import premium, ``avoided
macroeconomic disruption/adjustment costs'', arises from the effect of
oil imports on the expected cost of supply disruptions and accompanying
price increases. A sudden increase in oil prices triggered by a
disruption in world oil supplies has two main effects: (1) It increases
the costs of oil imports in the short-run and (2) it can lead to
macroeconomic contraction, dislocation and Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
losses. For example, ORNL estimates the combined value of these two
factors to be $6.34/barrel when U.S. oil imports are reduced in 2020,
with a range from $3.07/barrel to $10.15/barrel of imported oil
reduced.
Since future disruptions in foreign oil supplies are an uncertain
prospect, each of the disruption cost components must be weighted by
the probability that the supply of petroleum to the U.S. will actually
be disrupted. Thus, the ``expected value'' of these costs--the product
of the probability that a supply disruption will occur and the sum of
costs from reduced economic output and the economy's abrupt adjustment
to sharply higher petroleum prices--is the relevant measure of their
magnitude. Further, when assessing the energy security value of a
policy to reduce oil use, it is only the change in the expected costs
of disruption that results from the policy that is relevant. The
expected costs of disruption may change from lowering the normal (i.e.,
pre-disruption) level of domestic petroleum use and imports, from any
induced alteration in the likelihood or size of disruption, or from
altering the short-run flexibility (e.g., elasticity) of petroleum use.
With updated oil market and economic factors, the avoided
macroeconomic disruption component of the energy security premiums is
slightly lower in comparison to avoided macroeconomic disruption
premiums used in previous rulemakings. Factors that contribute to
moderately lowering the avoided macroeconomic disruption component are
lower projected GDP, moderately lower oil prices and slightly smaller
price increases during prospective shocks. For example, oil price
levels are 5-19 percent lower over the 2020-2035 period, and the likely
increase in oil prices in the event of an oil shock are somewhat
smaller, given small increases in the responsiveness of oil supply to
changes in the world price of oil. Overall, the avoided macroeconomic
disruption component estimates for the oil security premiums are 2-19
percent lower over the period from 2020-2035 based upon different
projected oil market and economic trends in the AEO2014 (Early Release)
compared to the AEO2012 (Early Release).
There are several reasons why the avoided macroeconomic disruption
premiums change only moderately. One reason is that the macroeconomic
sensitivity to oil price shocks is assumed unchanged in recent years
since U.S. oil consumption levels and the value share of oil in the
U.S. economy remain at high levels. For example, Figure IX-2 below
shows that under AEO2014 (Early Release), projected U.S. real annual
oil expenditures continue to rise after 2015 to over $800 billion
(2012$) by 2030. The value share of oil use in the U.S. economy remains
between three and four percent, well above the levels observed from
1985 to 2005. A second factor is that oil disruption risks are little
changed. The two factors influencing disruption risks are the
probability of global supply interruptions and the world oil supply
share from OPEC. Both factors are not significantly different from
previous forecasts of oil market trends.
The energy security costs estimated here follow the oil security
premium framework, which is well established in the energy economics
literature. The oil import premium gained attention as a guiding
concept for energy policy around the time of the second and third major
post-war oil shocks (Bohi and Montgomery 1982, EMF 1982).\737\ Plummer
(1982) \738\ provided valuable discussion of many of the key issues
related to the oil import premium as well as the analogous oil
stockpiling premium. Bohi and Montgomery (1982) \739\ detailed the
theoretical foundations of the oil import premium established many of
the critical analytic relationships through their thoughtful analysis.
Hogan (1981) \740\ and Broadman and Hogan (1986, 1988)\741\ revised and
extended the established analytical framework to estimate optimal oil
import premia with a more detailed accounting of macroeconomic effects.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\737\Bohi, Douglas R. And W. David Montgomery 1982. Social Cost
of Imported and Import Policy, Annual Review of Energy, 7:37-60.
Energy Modeling Forum, 1981. World Oil, EMF Report 6 (Stanford
University Press: Stanford 39 CA. https//emf.stanford.edu/publications/emf-6-world-oil.
\738\ Plummer, James L. (Ed.) 1982. Energy Vulnerability,
``Basic Concepts, Assumptions and Numerical Results'', pp. 13-36,
(Cambridge MA: Ballinger Publishing Co.)
\739\ Bohi, Douglas R. And W. David Montgomery 1982. Social Cost
of Imported and U.S. Import Policy, Annual Review of Energy, 7:37-
60.
\740\ Hogan, William W., 1981. ``Import Management and Oil
Emergencies'', Chapter 9 in Deese, 5 David and Joseph Nye, eds.
Energy and Security. Cambridge, MA: Ballinger Publishing Co.
\741\Broadman, H.G. 1986. ``The Social Cost of Imported Oil,''
Energy Policy 14(3):242-252. Broadman H.G. and W.W. Hogan, 1988.
``Is an Oil Import Tariff Justified? An American Debate: The Numbers
Say `Yes'.'' The Energy Journal 9: 7-29.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Since the original work on energy security was undertaken in the
1980's, there have been several reviews on this topic. For example,
Leiby, Jones, Curlee and Lee (1997) \742\ provided an extended review
of the literature and issues regarding the estimation of the premium.
Parry and Darmstadter (2004) \743\ also provided an overview of extant
oil security premium estimates
[[Page 40470]]
and estimated of some premium components.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\742\ Leiby, Paul N., Donald W. Jones, T. Randall Curlee, and
Russell Lee, Oil Imports: An Assessment of Benefits and Costs, ORNL-
6851, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, November 1, 1997.
\743\ Parry, Ian W.H. and Joel Darmstadter 2004. ``The Costs of
U.S. Oil Dependency,'' Resources for the Future, November 17, 2004
(also published as NCEP Technical Appendix Chapter 1: Enhancing Oil
Security, the National Commission on Energy Policy 2004 Ending the
Energy Stalemate--A Bipartisan Strategy to Meet America's Energy
Challenges.)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
The recent economics literature on whether oil shocks are a threat
to economic stability that they once were is mixed. Some of the current
literature asserts that the macroeconomic component of the energy
security externality is small. For example, the National Research
Council (2009) argued that the non-environmental externalities
associated with dependence on foreign oil are small, and potentially
trivial.\744\ Analyses by Nordhaus (2007) and Blanchard and Gali (2010)
question the impact of more recent oil price shocks on the
economy.\745\ They were motivated by attempts to explain why the
economy actually expanded immediately after the last shocks, and why
there was no evidence of higher energy prices being passed on through
higher wage inflation. Using different methodologies, they conclude
that the economy has largely gotten over its concern with dramatic
swings in oil prices.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\744\ National Research Council, 2009. Hidden Costs of Energy:
Unpriced Consequences of Energy Production and Use. National Academy
of Science, Washington, DC.
\745\ See, William Nordhaus, ``Who's Afraid of a Big Bad Oil
Shock?,'' available at https://aida.econ.yale.edu/~nordhaus/homepage/
Big_Bad_Oil_Shock_Meeting.pdf, and Olivier Blanchard and Jordi Gali,
``The macroeconomic Effects of Oil price Shocks: Why are the 2000s
so different from the 1970s?,'' pp. 373-421, in The International
Dimensions of Monetary Policy, Jordi Gali and Mark Gertler, editors,
University of Chicago Press, February 2010, available at https://www.nber.org/chapters/c0517.pdf.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
One reason, according to Nordhaus, is that monetary policy has
become more accommodating to the price impacts of oil shocks. Another
is that consumers have simply decided that such movements are
temporary, and have noted that price impacts are not passed on as
inflation in other parts of the economy. He also notes that real
changes to productivity due to oil price increases are incredibly
modest,\746\ and that the general direction of the economy matters a
great deal regarding how the economy responds to a shock. Estimates of
the impact of a price shock on aggregate demand are insignificantly
different from zero.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\746\ In fact, ``. . . energy-price changes have no effect on
multifactor productivity and very little effect on labor
productivity.'' Page 19. He calculates the productivity effect of a
doubling of oil prices as a decrease of 0.11 percent for one year
and 0.04 percent a year for ten years. Page 5. (The doubling
reflects the historical experience of the post-war shocks, as
described in Table 7.1 in Blanchard and Gali, p. 380.)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Blanchard and Gali (2010) contend that improvements in monetary
policy (as noted above), more flexible labor markets, and lessening of
energy intensity in the economy, combined with an absence of concurrent
shocks, all contributed to lessen the impact of oil shocks after 1980.
They find ``. . . the effects of oil price shocks have changed over
time, with steadily smaller effects on prices and wages, as well as on
output and employment.'' \747\ In a comment at the chapter's end, this
work is summarized as follows: ``The message of this chapter is thus
optimistic in that it suggests a transformation in U.S. institutions
has inoculated the economy against the responses that we saw in the
past.''
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\747\ Blanchard and Gali, p. 414.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
At the same time, the implications of the ``Shale Oil Revolution''
are now being felt in the international markets, with current prices at
four year lows. Analysts generally attribute this result in part to the
significant increase in supply resulting from U.S. production, which
has put liquid petroleum production on par with Saudi Arabia. The price
decline is also attributed to the sustained reductions in U.S.
consumption and global demand growth from fuel efficiency policies and
high oil prices. The resulting decrease in foreign imports, down to
about one-third of domestic consumption (from 60 percent in 2005, for
example \748\), effectively permits U.S. supply to act as a buffer
against artificial or other supply restrictions (the latter due to
conflict or natural disaster, for example).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\748\ See, Oil Price Drops on Oversupply, https://www.oil-price.net/en/articles/oil-price-drops-on-oversupply.php, 10/6/2014.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
However, other papers suggest that oil shocks, particularly sudden
supply shocks, remain a concern. Both Blanchard and Gali's and Nordhaus
work were based on data and analysis through 2006, ending with a period
of strong global economic growth and growing global oil demand. The
Nordhaus work particularly stressed the effects of the price increase
from 2002-2006 that were comparatively gradual (about half the growth
rate of the 1973 event and one-third that of the 1990 event). The
Nordhaus study emphasizes the robustness of the U.S. economy during a
time period through 2006. This time period was just before rapid
further increases in the price of oil and other commodities with oil
prices more-than-doubling to over $130/barrel by mid-2008, only to drop
after the onset of the largest recession since the Great Depression.
Hamilton (2012) reviewed the empirical literature on oil shocks and
suggested that the results are mixed, noting that some work (e.g.
Rasmussen and Roitman (2011) finds less evidence for economic effects
of oil shocks, or declining effects of shocks (Blanchard and Gali
2010), while other work continues to find evidence regarding the
economic importance of oil shocks. For example, Baumeister and Peersman
(2011) found that an oil price increase of a given size seems to have a
decreasing effect over time, but noted that the declining price-
elasticity of demand meant that a given physical disruption had a
bigger effect on price and turned out to have a similar effect on
output as in the earlier data.'' \749\ Hamilton observes that ``a
negative effect of oil prices on real output has also been reported for
a number of other countries, particularly when nonlinear functional
forms have been employed'' (citing as recent examples Kim 2012,
Engemann, Kliesen, and Owyang 2011 and Daniel, et. al. 2011).
Alternatively, rather than a declining effect, Ramey and Vine (2010)
found ``remarkable stability in the response of aggregate real
variables to oil shocks once we account for the extra costs imposed on
the economy in the 1970s by price controls and a complex system of
entitlements that led to some rationing and shortages.'' \750\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\749\ Hamilton, J.D. (2012). Oil Prices, Exhaustible Resources,
and Economic Growth. In Handbook of Energy and Climate Change.
Retrieved from https://econweb.ucsd.edu/~jhamilto/
handbook_climate.pdf.
\750\ Ramey, V.A., & Vine, D.J. (2010). ``Oil, Automobiles, and
the U.S. Economy: How Much have Things Really Changed?'', National
Bureau of Economic Research Working Papers, WP 16067 (June).
Retrieved from https://www.nber.org/papers/w16067.pdf.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Some of the recent literature on oil price shocks has emphasized
that economic impacts depend on the nature of the oil shock, with
differences between price increases caused by sudden supply loss and
those caused by rapidly growing demand. Most recent analyses of oil
price shocks have confirmed that ``demand-driven'' oil price shocks
have greater effects on oil prices and tend to have positive effects on
the economy while ``supply-driven'' oil shocks still have negative
economic impacts (Baumeister, Peersman and Robays, 2010). A recent
paper by Kilian and Vigfusson (2014), for example, assigned a more
prominent role to the effects of price increases that are unusual, in
the sense of being beyond range of recent experience. Kilian and
Vigfussen also conclude that the difference in response to oil shocks
may well stem from the different effects of demand- and supply-based
price increases: ``One explanation is that oil price shocks are
associated with a range of oil demand and oil supply shocks, some of
which stimulate the U.S.
[[Page 40471]]
economy in the short run and some of which slow down U.S. growth (see
Kilian 2009a). How recessionary the response to an oil price shock is
thus depends on the average composition of oil demand and oil supply
shocks over the sample period.''
The general conclusion that oil supply-driven shocks reduce
economic output is also reached in a recently published paper by Cashin
et al. (2014) for 38 countries from 1979-2011. ``The results indicate
that the economic consequences of a supply-driven oil-price shock are
very different from those of an oil-demand shock driven by global
economic activity, and vary for oil-importing countries compared to
energy exporters,'' and ``oil importers [including the U.S.] typically
face a long-lived fall in economic activity in response to a supply-
driven surge in oil prices'' but almost all countries see an increase
in real output for an oil-demand disturbance. Note that the energy
security premium calculation in this analysis is based on price shocks
from potential future supply events only.
Finally, despite continuing uncertainty about oil market behavior
and outcomes and the sensitivity of the U.S. economy to oil shocks, it
is generally agreed that it is beneficial to reduce petroleum fuel
consumption from an energy security standpoint. Reducing fuel
consumption reduces the amount of domestic economic activity associated
with a commodity whose price depends on volatile international markets.
Also, reducing U.S. oil import levels reduces the likelihood and
significance of supply disruptions.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\751\ Historical data are from EIA Annual Energy Review, various
editions. For data since 2011 and projected data: Source is EIA
Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) 2014 (Reference Case). See Table 11,
file ``aeotab_11.xlsx'' and Table 20 (Macroeconomic Indicators,''
(file ``aeotab_20.xlsx'').
[GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] TP13JY15.018
(c) Cost of Existing U.S. Energy Security Policies
The last often-identified component of the full economic costs of
U.S. oil imports are the costs to the U.S. taxpayers of existing U.S.
energy security policies. The two primary examples are maintaining the
Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) and maintaining a military presence
to help secure a stable oil supply from potentially vulnerable regions
of the world. The SPR is the largest stockpile of government-owned
emergency crude oil in the world. Established in the aftermath of the
1973/1974 oil embargo, the SPR provides the U.S. with a response option
should a disruption in commercial oil supplies threaten the U.S.
economy. It also allows the U.S. to meet part of its International
Energy Agency obligation to maintain emergency oil stocks, and it
provides a national defense fuel reserve. While the costs for building
and maintaining the SPR are more clearly related to U.S. oil use and
imports, historically these costs have not varied in response to
changes in U.S. oil import levels. Thus, while the effect of the SPR in
moderating price shocks is factored into the ORNL analysis, the cost of
maintaining the SPR is excluded.
U.S. military costs are excluded from the analysis performed by
ORNL because their attribution to particular missions or activities is
difficult, and because it is not clear that these outlays would decline
in response to incremental reductions in U.S. oil imports. Most
military forces serve a broad range of security and foreign policy
objectives. The agencies also recognize that attempts to attribute some
share of U.S. military costs to oil imports are further challenged by
the need to estimate how those costs might
[[Page 40472]]
vary with incremental variations in U.S. oil imports.
(3) Energy Security Benefits of This Program
Using the ORNL ``oil premium'' methodology, updating world oil
price values and energy trends using AEO 2014 (Early Release) and using
the estimated fuel savings from the proposed rules estimated from the
MOVES/CAFE models, the agencies has calculated the annual energy
security benefits of this proposed rule through 2050.\752\ Since the
agencies are taking a global perspective with respect to valuing
greenhouse gas benefits from the rules, only the avoided macroeconomic
adjustment/disruption portion of the energy security premium is used in
the energy security benefits estimates present below. These results are
shown below in Table IX-25. The agencies have also calculated the net
present value at 3 percent and 7 percent discount rates of model year
lifetime benefits associated with energy security; these values are
presented in Table IX-26.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\752\ In order to determine the energy security benefits beyond
2040, we use the 2040 energy security premium multiplied by the
estimate fuel savings from the proposed rule. Since the AEO 2014
(Early Release) only goes to 2040, we only calculate energy security
premiums to 2040.
Table IX-25--Annual U.S. Energy Security Benefits of the Preferred
Alternative and Net Present Values at 3% and 7% Discount Rates Using
Method B and Relative to the Less Dynamic Baseline
[In millions of 2012$] \a\
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Benefits
Year (2012$)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
2018....................................................... 10
2019....................................................... 20
2020....................................................... 31
2021....................................................... 77
2022....................................................... 140
2023....................................................... 211
2024....................................................... 328
2025....................................................... 456
2026....................................................... 596
2027....................................................... 770
2028....................................................... 947
2029....................................................... 1,126
2030....................................................... 1,306
2035....................................................... 2,156
2040....................................................... 2,920
2050....................................................... 3,498
NPV, 3%.................................................... 28,947
NPV, 7%.................................................... 11,857
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note:
\a\ For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section
I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more
dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
Table IX-26--Discounted Model Year Lifetime Energy Security Benefits Due
to the Preferred Alternative at 3% and 7% Discount Rates Using Method B
and Relative to the Less Dynamic Baseline
[Millions of 2012$] \a\
------------------------------------------------------------------------
3% discount 7% discount
Calendar year rate rate
------------------------------------------------------------------------
2018.......................................... 86 60
2019.......................................... 85 56
2020.......................................... 84 53
2021.......................................... 534 326
2022.......................................... 579 341
2023.......................................... 621 353
2024.......................................... 996 546
2025.......................................... 1,060 560
2026.......................................... 1,121 571
2027.......................................... 1,375 676
2028.......................................... 1,388 657
2029.......................................... 1,397 637
-------------------------
Sum........................................... 9,325 4,837
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note:
\a\ For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section
I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more
dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
J. Other Impacts
(1) Costs of Noise, Congestion and Accidents Associated With Additional
(Rebound) Driving
Although it provides benefits to drivers as described above,
increased vehicle use associated with the rebound effect also
contributes to increased traffic congestion, motor vehicle accidents,
and highway noise. Depending on how the additional travel is
distributed over the day and where it takes place, additional vehicle
use can contribute to traffic congestion and delays by increasing the
number of vehicles using facilities that are already heavily traveled.
These added delays impose higher costs on drivers and other vehicle
occupants in the form of increased travel time and operating expenses.
At the same time, this additional travel also increases costs
associated with traffic accidents and vehicle noise.
The agencies estimate these costs using the same methodology as
used in the two light-duty and the HD Phase 1 rule analyses, which
relies on estimates of congestion, accident, and noise costs imposed by
automobiles and light trucks developed by the Federal Highway
Administration to estimate these increased external costs caused by
added driving.\753\ We provide the details behind the estimates in
Chapter 8.7 of the draft RIA. The agencies request comment on all input
metrics used in the analysis of accidents, congestion and noise and on
the calculation methodology. Table IX-27 presents the estimated annual
impacts associated with accidents, congestion and noise along with net
present values at both 3 percent and 7 percent discount rates. Table
IX-28 presents the estimated discounted model year lifetime impacts
associated with accidents, congestion and noise.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\753\ These estimates were developed by FHWA for use in its 1997
Federal Highway Cost Allocation Study; https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policy/hcas/final/index.htm (last accessed July 8, 2012).
Table IX-27--Annual Costs Associated With Accidents, Congestion and
Noise and Net Present Values at 3% and 7% Discount Rates Using Method B
and Relative to the Less Dynamic Baseline
[Millions of 2012$] \a\
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Costs of
accidents,
Calendar year congestion,
and noise
------------------------------------------------------------------------
2018.................................................... $0
2019.................................................... 0
2020.................................................... 0
2021.................................................... 117
2022.................................................... 172
2023.................................................... 226
2024.................................................... 279
2025.................................................... 330
2026.................................................... 379
2027.................................................... 425
2028.................................................... 467
2029.................................................... 506
2030.................................................... 542
2035.................................................... 676
2040.................................................... 758
2050.................................................... 871
NPV, 3%................................................. 9,334
NPV, 7%................................................. 4,202
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note:
\a\ For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section
I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more
dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
[[Page 40473]]
Table IX-28--Discounted Model Year Lifetime Costs of Accidents,
Congestion and Noise at 3% and 7% Discount Rates Using Method B and
Relative to the Less Dynamic Baseline
[Millions of 2012$] \a\
------------------------------------------------------------------------
3% discount 7% discount
Calendar year rate rate
------------------------------------------------------------------------
2018.......................................... 132 85
2019.......................................... 146 94
2020.......................................... 162 103
2021.......................................... 450 284
2022.......................................... 438 266
2023.......................................... 427 250
2024.......................................... 424 239
2025.......................................... 422 229
2026.......................................... 420 219
2027.......................................... 415 209
2028.......................................... 409 198
2029.......................................... 402 187
-------------------------
Sum......................................... 4,247 2,362
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note:
\a\ For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section
I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more
dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
(2) Benefits Associated With Reduced Refueling Time
By reducing the frequency with which drivers typically refuel their
vehicles and by extending the upper limit of the range that can be
traveled before requiring refueling (i.e., future fuel tank sizes
remain constant), savings would be realized associated with less time
spent refueling vehicles. Alternatively, refill intervals may remain
the same (i.e., future fuel tank sizes get smaller), resulting in the
same number of refills as today but less time spent per refill because
there would be less fuel to refill. The agencies have estimated this
impact using the former approach--by assuming that future tank sizes
remain constant.
The savings in refueling time are calculated as the total amount of
time the driver of a typical truck in each class would save each year
as a consequence of pumping less fuel into the vehicle's tank. The
calculation does not include any reduction in time spent searching for
a fueling station or other time spent at the station; it is assumed
that time savings occur only when truck operators are actually
refueling their vehicles.
The calculation uses the reduced number of gallons consumed by
truck type and divides that value by the tank volume and refill amount
to get the number of refills, then multiplies that by the time per
refill to determine the number of hours saved in a given year. The
calculation then applies DOT-recommended values of travel time savings
to convert the resulting time savings to their economic value,
including a 1.2 percent growth rate in those time savings going
forward.\754\ The input metrics used in the analysis are presented in
greater detail in draft RIA Chapter 9.7. The annual benefits associated
with reduced refueling time are shown in Table IX-29 along with net
present values at both 3 percent and 7 percent discount rates. The
discounted model year lifetime benefits are shown in Table IX-30.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\754\ U.S. Department of Transportation, Valuation of Travel
Guidance, July 9, 2014, at page 14.
Table IX-29--Annual Refueling Benefits and Net Present Values at 3% and
7% Discount Rates Using Method B and Relative to the Less Dynamic
Baseline
[Millions of 2012$] \a\
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Refueling
Calendar year benefits
------------------------------------------------------------------------
2018....................................................... 3
2019....................................................... 6
2020....................................................... 9
2021....................................................... 25
2022....................................................... 47
2023....................................................... 72
2024....................................................... 113
2025....................................................... 157
2026....................................................... 205
2027....................................................... 266
2028....................................................... 327
2029....................................................... 386
2030....................................................... 444
2035....................................................... 698
2040....................................................... 890
2050....................................................... 1,195
NPV, 3%.................................................... 9,410
NPV, 7%.................................................... 3,868
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note:
\a\ For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section
I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more
dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
Table IX-30--Discounted Model Year Lifetime Refueling Benefits Using
Method B and Relative to the Less Dynamic Baseline
[Millions of 2012$] \a\
------------------------------------------------------------------------
3% discount 7% discount
Model year rate rate
------------------------------------------------------------------------
2018.......................................... 23 16
2019.......................................... 22 15
2020.......................................... 21 14
2021.......................................... 163 101
2022.......................................... 184 110
2023.......................................... 203 117
2024.......................................... 325 181
2025.......................................... 349 187
2026.......................................... 372 191
2027.......................................... 466 231
2028.......................................... 465 222
2029.......................................... 463 213
-------------------------
Sum......................................... 3,055 1,597
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note:
\a\ For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section
I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more
dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
(3) Benefits of Increased Travel Associated With Rebound Driving
The increase in travel associated with the rebound effect produces
additional benefits to vehicle owners and operators, which reflect the
value of the added (or more desirable) social and economic
opportunities that become accessible with additional travel. The
analysis estimates the economic benefits from increased rebound-effect
driving as the sum of fuel expenditures incurred plus the consumer
surplus from the additional accessibility it provides. As evidenced by
the fact that vehicles make more frequent or longer trips when the cost
of driving declines, the benefits from this added travel exceed added
expenditures for the fuel consumed. The amount by which the benefits
from this increased driving exceed its increased fuel costs measures
the net benefits from the additional travel, usually referred to as
increased consumer surplus.
The agencies' analysis estimates the economic value of the
increased consumer surplus provided by added driving using the
conventional approximation, which is one half of the product of the
decline in vehicle operating costs per vehicle-mile and the resulting
increase in the annual number of miles driven. Because it depends on
the extent of improvement in fuel economy, the value of benefits from
increased vehicle use changes by model year and varies among
alternative standards. Under even those alternatives that would impose
the highest standards, however, the magnitude of the consumer surplus
from additional vehicle use represents a small fraction of this
benefit.
The annual benefits associated with increased travel are shown in
Table IX-31 along with net present values at both
[[Page 40474]]
3 percent and 7 percent discount rates. The discounted model year
lifetime benefits are shown in Table IX-32.
Table IX-31--Annual Value of Increased Travel and Net Present Values at
3% and 7% Discount Rates Using Method B and Relative to the Less Dynamic
Baseline
[Millions of 2012$] \a\
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Benefits of
Calendar year increased
travel
------------------------------------------------------------------------
2018....................................................... 0
2019....................................................... 0
2020....................................................... 0
2021....................................................... 445
2022....................................................... 636
2023....................................................... 821
2024....................................................... 1,001
2025....................................................... 1,179
2026....................................................... 1,346
2027....................................................... 1,506
2028....................................................... 1,647
2029....................................................... 1,783
2030....................................................... 1,909
2035....................................................... 2,445
2040....................................................... 2,873
2050....................................................... 3,286
NPV, 3%.................................................... 34,240
NPV, 7%.................................................... 15,316
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note:
\a\ For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section
I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more
dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
Table IX-32--Discounted Model Year Lifetime Value of Increased Travel at
3% and 7% Discount Rates Using Method B and Relative to the Less Dynamic
Baseline
[Millions of 2012$] \a\
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Calendar year 3% discount rate 7% discount rate
------------------------------------------------------------------------
2018.............................. $554 $353
2019.............................. 618 390
2020.............................. 686 429
2021.............................. 1,510 942
2022.............................. 1,488 894
2023.............................. 1,463 847
2024.............................. 1,434 799
2025.............................. 1,442 774
2026.............................. 1,447 748
2027.............................. 1,421 708
2028.............................. 1,415 678
2029.............................. 1,406 649
-------------------------------------
Sum............................. 14,884 8,211
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note:
\a\ For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Section
I.D; for an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more
dynamic baseline, 1b, please see Section X.A.1.
K. Summary of Benefits and Costs
This section presents the costs, benefits, and other economic
impacts of the proposed Phase 2 standards. It is important to note that
NHTSA's proposed fuel consumption standards and EPA's proposed GHG
standards would both be in effect, and would jointly lead to increased
fuel efficiency and reductions in GHG and non-GHG emissions. The
individual categories of benefits and costs presented in the tables
below are defined more fully and presented in more detail in Chapter 8
of the draft RIA. These include:
The vehicle program costs (costs of complying with the
vehicle CO