Order Making Fiscal Year 2014 Annual Adjustments to Registration Fee Rates, 54934-54941 [2013-21642]
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54934
Federal Register / Vol. 78, No. 173 / Friday, September 6, 2013 / Notices
meeting (Release No. 33–9445),
indicating that the meeting is open to
the public and inviting the public to
submit written comments to the
Committee. This Sunshine Act notice is
being issued because a majority of the
Commission may attend the meeting.
The agenda for the meeting includes
matters relating to rules and regulations
affecting small and emerging companies
under the federal securities laws.
For further information, please
contact the Office of the Secretary at
(202) 551–5400.
Dated: September 3, 2013.
Elizabeth M. Murphy,
Secretary.
[FR Doc. 2013–21790 Filed 9–4–13; 11:15 am]
BILLING CODE 8011–01–P
has not filed any periodic reports since
the period ended March 31, 2012.
It appears to the Securities and
Exchange Commission that there is a
lack of current and accurate information
concerning the securities of China WiMax Communications, Inc. because it
has not filed any periodic reports since
the period ended June 30, 2011.
The Commission is of the opinion that
the public interest and the protection of
investors require a suspension of trading
in the securities of the above-listed
companies. Therefore, it is ordered,
pursuant to Section 12(k) of the
Securities Exchange Act of 1934, that
trading in the securities of the abovelisted companies is suspended for the
period from 9:30 a.m. EDT on
September 4, 2013, through 11:59 p.m.
EDT on September 17, 2013.
By the Commission.
Jill M. Peterson,
Assistant Secretary.
SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE
COMMISSION
In the Matter of K’s Media, File No.
500–1; Order of Suspension of Trading
[FR Doc. 2013–21838 Filed 9–4–13; 4:15 pm]
BILLING CODE 8011–01–P
September 4, 2013.
It appears to the Securities and
Exchange Commission that there is a
lack of current and accurate information
concerning the securities of K’s Media
because it has not filed any periodic
reports since the period ended April 30,
2010.
The Commission is of the opinion that
the public interest and the protection of
investors require a suspension of trading
in the securities of the above-listed
company. Therefore, it is ordered,
pursuant to Section 12(k) of the
Securities Exchange Act of 1934, that
trading in the securities of the abovelisted company is suspended for the
period from 9:30 a.m. EDT on
September 4, 2013, through 11:59 p.m.
EDT on September 17, 2013.
By the Commission.
Jill M. Peterson,
Assistant Secretary.
[FR Doc. 2013–21839 Filed 9–4–13; 4:15 pm]
BILLING CODE 8011–01–P
SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE
COMMISSION
mstockstill on DSK4VPTVN1PROD with NOTICES
[File No. 500–1]
China Lithium Technologies, Inc. and
China Wi-Max Communications, Inc.;
Order of Suspension of Trading
September 4, 2013.
It appears to the Securities and
Exchange Commission that there is a
lack of current and accurate information
concerning the securities of China
Lithium Technologies, Inc. because it
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18:05 Sep 05, 2013
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SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE
COMMISSION
[Release Nos. 33–9447; 34–70298/August
30, 2013]
Order Making Fiscal Year 2014 Annual
Adjustments to Registration Fee Rates
I. Background
The Commission collects fees under
various provisions of the securities
laws. Section 6(b) of the Securities Act
of 1933 (‘‘Securities Act’’) requires the
Commission to collect fees from issuers
on the registration of securities.1 Section
13(e) of the Securities Exchange Act of
1934 (‘‘Exchange Act’’) requires the
Commission to collect fees on specified
repurchases of securities.2 Section 14(g)
of the Exchange Act requires the
Commission to collect fees on proxy
solicitations and statements in corporate
control transactions.3
The Investor and Capital Markets Fee
Relief Act of 2002 (‘‘Fee Relief Act’’) 4
required the Commission to make
annual adjustments to the fee rates
applicable under these sections for each
of the fiscal years 2003 through 2011 in
an attempt to generate collections equal
to yearly targets specified in the
statute.5 Under the Fee Relief Act, each
year’s fee rate was announced on the
preceding April 30, and took effect five
1 15
U.S.C. 77f(b).
U.S.C. 78m(e).
3 15 U.S.C. 78n(g).
4 Public Law 107–123, 115 Stat. 2390 (2002).
5 See 15 U.S.C. 77f(b)(5), 77f(b)(6), 78m(e)(5),
78m(e)(6), 78n(g)(5) and 78n(g)(6).
2 15
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days after the date of enactment of the
Commission’s regular appropriation.
The Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform
and Consumer Protection Act (‘‘DoddFrank Act’’) 6 changed many of the
provisions related to these fees. The
Dodd-Frank Act created new annual
collection targets for FY 2012 and
thereafter. It also changed the date by
which the Commission must announce
a new fiscal year’s fee rate (August 31)
and the date on which the new rate
takes effect (October 1).
II. Fiscal Year 2014 Annual Adjustment
to the Fee Rate
Section 6(b)(2) of the Securities Act,
as amended by the Dodd-Frank Act,
requires the Commission to make an
annual adjustment to the fee rate
applicable under Section 6(b).7 The
annual adjustment to the fee rate under
Section 6(b) of the Securities Act also
sets the annual adjustment to the fee
rates under Sections 13(e) and 14(g) of
the Exchange Act.8
Section 6(b)(2) sets forth the method
for determining the annual adjustment
to the fee rate under Section 6(b) for
fiscal year 2014. Specifically, the
Commission must adjust the fee rate
under Section 6(b) to a ‘‘rate that, when
applied to the baseline estimate of the
aggregate maximum offering prices for
[fiscal year 2014], is reasonably likely to
produce aggregate fee collections under
[Section 6(b)] that are equal to the target
fee collection amount for [fiscal year
2014].’’ That is, the adjusted rate is
determined by dividing the ‘‘target fee
collection amount’’ for fiscal year 2014
by the ‘‘baseline estimate of the
aggregate maximum offering prices’’ for
fiscal year 2014.
Section 6(b)(6)(A) specifies that the
‘‘target fee collection amount’’ for fiscal
year 2014 is $485,000,000. Section
6(b)(6)(B) defines the ‘‘baseline estimate
of the aggregate maximum offering
price’’ for fiscal year 2014 as ‘‘the
baseline estimate of the aggregate
maximum offering price at which
securities are proposed to be offered
pursuant to registration statements filed
with the Commission during [fiscal year
2014] as determined by the
Commission, after consultation with the
Congressional Budget Office and the
Office of Management and
Budget. . . .’’
6 Public
Law 111–203, 124 Stat.1376 (2010).
U.S.C. 77f(b)(2). The annual adjustments are
designed to adjust the fee rate in a given fiscal year
so that, when applied to the aggregate maximum
offering price at which securities are proposed to
be offered for the fiscal year, it is reasonably likely
to produce total fee collections under Section 6(b)
equal to the ‘‘target fee collection amount’’ specified
in Section 6(b)(6)(A) for that fiscal year.
8 15 U.S.C. 78m(e)(4) and 15 U.S.C. 78n(g)(4).
7 15
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To make the baseline estimate of the
aggregate maximum offering price for
fiscal year 2014, the Commission used
a methodology similar to that developed
in consultation with the Congressional
Budget Office (‘‘CBO’’) and Office of
Management and Budget (‘‘OMB’’) to
project the aggregate offering price for
purposes of the fiscal year 2012 annual
adjustment (and identical to the
methodology employed during fiscal
year 2013).9 Using this methodology,
the Commission determines the
‘‘baseline estimate of the aggregate
maximum offering price’’ for fiscal year
2014 to be $3,766,638,654,272.10 Based
on this estimate, the Commission
calculates the fee rate for fiscal 2014 to
be $128.80 per million. This adjusted
fee rate applies to Section 6(b) of the
Securities Act, as well as to Sections
13(e) and 14(g) of the Exchange Act.
14(g) of the Exchange Act shall be
$128.80 per million effective on October
1, 2013.
By the Commission.
Elizabeth M. Murphy,
Secretary.
Appendix A
IV. Conclusion
Accordingly, pursuant to Section 6(b)
of the Securities Act and Sections 13(e)
and 14(g) of the Exchange Act,12
It is hereby ordered that the fee rates
applicable under Section 6(b) of the
Securities Act and Sections 13(e) and
With the passage of the Dodd-Frank Wall
Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act,
Congress has, among other things,
established a target amount of monies to be
collected from fees charged to issuers based
on the value of their registrations. This
appendix provides the formula for
determining such fees, which the
Commission adjusts annually. Congress has
mandated that the Commission determine
these fees based on the ‘‘aggregate maximum
offering prices,’’ which measures the
aggregate dollar amount of securities
registered with the Commission over the
course of the year. In order to maximize the
likelihood that the amount of monies targeted
by Congress will be collected, the fee rate
must be set to reflect projected aggregate
maximum offering prices. As a percentage,
the fee rate equals the ratio of the target
amounts of monies to the projected aggregate
maximum offering prices.
For 2014, the Commission has estimated
the aggregate maximum offering prices by
projecting forward the trend established in
the previous decade. More specifically, an
ARIMA model was used to forecast the value
of the aggregate maximum offering prices for
months subsequent to July 2013, the last
month for which the Commission has data on
the aggregate maximum offering prices.
The following sections describe this
process in detail.
9 For the fiscal year 2011 estimate, the
Commission used a ten-year series of monthly
observations ending in March 2011. For fiscal year
2012, the Commission used a ten-year series ending
in July 2011. For fiscal year 2013, the Commission
used a ten-year series ending in July 2012. For fiscal
year 2014, the Commission used a ten-year series
ending in July 2013.
10 Appendix A explains how we determined the
‘‘baseline estimate of the aggregate maximum
offering price’’ for fiscal year 2014 using our
methodology, and then shows the purely
arithmetical process of calculating the fiscal year
2014 annual adjustment based on that estimate. The
appendix includes the data used by the
Commission in making its ‘‘baseline estimate of the
aggregate maximum offering price’’ for fiscal year
2014.
11 15 U.S.C. 77f(b)(4), 15 U.S.C. 78m(e)(6) and 15
U.S.C. 78n(g)(6).
12 15 U.S.C. 77f(b), 78m(e) and 78n(g).
A. Baseline Estimate of the Aggregate
Maximum Offering Prices for Fiscal Year
2014
First, calculate the aggregate maximum
offering prices (AMOP) for each month in the
sample (July 2003–July 2013). Next, calculate
the percentage change in the AMOP from
month to month.
Model the monthly percentage change in
AMOP as a first order moving average
process. The moving average approach
allows one to model the effect that an
exceptionally high (or low) observation of
AMOP tends to be followed by a more
‘‘typical’’ value of AMOP.
Use the estimated moving average model to
forecast the monthly percent change in
AMOP. These percent changes can then be
applied to obtain forecasts of the total dollar
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III. Effective Dates of the Annual
Adjustments
The fiscal year 2014 annual
adjustments to the fee rates applicable
under Section 6(b) of the Securities Act
and Sections 13(e) and 14(g) of the
Exchange Act will be effective on
October 1, 2013.11
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54935
value of registrations. The following is a
more formal (mathematical) description of
the procedure:
1. Begin with the monthly data for AMOP.
The sample spans ten years, from July 2003
to July 2013.
2. Divide each month’s AMOP (column C)
by the number of trading days in that month
(column B) to obtain the average daily AMOP
(AAMOP, column D).
3. For each month t, the natural logarithm
of AAMOP is reported in column E.
4. Calculate the change in log(AAMOP)
from the previous month as Dt =
log(AAMOPt) ¥ log(AAMOPt¥1). This
approximates the percentage change.
5. Estimate the first order moving average
model Dt = a + bet¥1 + et , where et denotes
the forecast error for month t. The forecast
error is simply the difference between the
one-month ahead forecast and the actual
realization of Dt . The forecast error is
expressed as et = Dt ¥ a ¥ bet¥1. The model
can be estimated using standard
commercially available software. Using least
squares, the estimated parameter values are
a = ¥0.0003334 and b = ¥0.90946.
6. For the month of August 2013 forecast
Dt = 8/12 = a + bet = 7/12. For all subsequent
months, forecast Dt = a.
7. Calculate forecasts of log(AAMOP). For
example, the forecast of log(AAMOP) for
October 2013 is given by FLAAMOPt=10/12 =
log(AAMOPt=&7/12) + Dt=8/12 + Dt=9/12 + Dt=10/12.
8. Under the assumption that et is normally
distributed, the n-step ahead forecast of
AAMOP is given by exp(FLAAMOPt + sn2/2),
where sn denotes the standard error of the nstep ahead forecast.
9. For October 2013, this gives a forecast
AAMOP of $14.93 billion (Column I), and a
forecast AMOP of $343.4 billion (Column J).
10. Iterate this process through September
2014 to obtain a baseline estimate of the
aggregate maximum offering prices for fiscal
year 2014 of $3,766,638,654,272.
B. Using the Forecasts From A To Calculate
the New Fee Rate
1. Using the data from Table A, estimate
the aggregate maximum offering prices
between 10/1/13 and 9/30/14 to be
$3,766,638,654,272.
2. The rate necessary to collect the target
$485,000,000 in fee revenues set by Congress
is then calculated as: $485,000,000 ÷
$3,766,638,654,272 = 0.000128762.
3. Round the result to the seventh decimal
point, yielding a rate of 0.0001288 (or
$128.80 per million).
BILLING CODE 8011–01–P
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Federal Register / Vol. 78, No. 173 / Friday, September 6, 2013 / Notices
BILLING CODE 8011–01–C
SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE
COMMISSION
[Release No. 34–70295; File No. SR–BX–
2013–016)
Self-Regulatory Organizations;
NASDAQ OMX BX Inc.; Notice of
Designation of Longer Period for
Commission Action on Proceedings To
Determine Whether To Approve or
Disapprove the Proposed Rule Change
To Adopt a Directed Order Process
mstockstill on DSK4VPTVN1PROD with NOTICES
August 30, 2013.
On February 21, 2013, NASDAQ OMX
BX, Inc. (‘‘Exchange’’ or ‘‘BX’’) filed
with the Securities and Exchange
Commission (‘‘Commission’’), pursuant
to Section 19(b)(1) of the Securities
Exchange Act of 1934 (‘‘Act’’),1 and
Rule 19b–4 thereunder,2 a proposed rule
change to establish a directed order
process. The proposed rule change was
published for comment in the Federal
Register on March 11, 2013.3 The
Commission received a comment letter
1 15
U.S.C. 78a.
CFR 240.19b–4.
3 See Securities Exchange Act Release No. 69040
(March 5, 2013), 78 FR 15385 (March 11, 2013).
2 17
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from one commenter on the proposal,4
a letter responding to the comment,5
and a follow up comment letter from the
same commenter.6 In addition, on April
17, 2013, the Exchange filed
Amendment No. 1 to the proposed rule
change.7 On April 22, 2013, the
Exchange extended to June 6, 2013, the
time period within which the
Commission must approve the proposed
rule change, disapprove the proposed
rule change, or institute proceedings to
determine whether to disapprove the
proposed rule change. On June 3, 2013,
the Commission instituted proceedings
to determine whether to approve or
disapprove the proposed rule change.8
On July 1, 2013, BX submitted a letter
in further support of its proposed rule
change.9 On July 15, 2013, the
4 See Letter, dated April 2, 2013, to Elizabeth M.
Murphy, Secretary, Commission, from Janet
McGuiness, Executive Vice President, Secretary and
General Counsel, NYSE Euronext.
5 See Letter, dated April 17, 2013, to Elizabeth M.
Murphy, Secretary, Commission, from Edith
Hallahan, Principal Associate General Counsel, BX.
6 See Letter, dated May 10, 2013, to Elizabeth M.
Murphy, Secretary, Commission, from Janet
McGuiness, Executive Vice President, Secretary and
General Counsel, NYSE Euronext.
7 For a description of Amendment No. 1, see
Securities Exchange Act Release No. 69684, 78 FR
34683 (June 10, 2013) (‘‘Order Instituting
Proceedings’’).
8 See Order Instituting Proceedings, supra note 7.
9 See Letter, dated July 1, 2013 to Elizabeth M.
Murphy, Secretary, Commission, from Edith
Hallahan, Principal Associate General Counsel, BX.
PO 00000
Frm 00080
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Commission received a comment in
response to BX’s letter,10 and on August
28, 2013, BX submitted a letter
responding to the comment letter.11
Section 19(b)(2) of the Act 12 provides
that, after initiating disapproval
proceedings, the Commission shall issue
an order approving or disapproving the
proposed rule change not later than 180
days after the date of publication of the
notice of the filing of the proposed rule
change. The Commission may extend
the period for issuing an order
approving or disapproving the proposed
rule change, however, by not more than
60 days if the Commission determines
that a longer period is appropriate and
publishes the reasons for such
determination. The proposed rule
change was published for notice and
comment in the Federal Register on
March 11, 2013. September 7, 2013 is
180 days from that date and November
6, 2013 is an additional 60 days from
that date.
The Commission finds it is
appropriate to designate a longer period
within which to issue an order
approving or disapproving the proposed
10 See Letter, dated July 15, 2013 to Elizabeth M.
Murphy, Secretary, Commission, from Janet
McGuiness, Executive Vice President, Secretary and
General Counsel, NYSE Euronext.
11 See Letter, dated August 28, 2013 to Elizabeth
M. Murphy, Secretary, Commission, from Edith
Hallahan, Principal Associate General Counsel, BX.
12 15. U.S.C. 78s(b)(2).
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[FR Doc. 2013–21642 Filed 9–5–13; 8:45 am]
54941
Agencies
[Federal Register Volume 78, Number 173 (Friday, September 6, 2013)]
[Notices]
[Pages 54934-54941]
From the Federal Register Online via the Government Printing Office [www.gpo.gov]
[FR Doc No: 2013-21642]
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SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION
[Release Nos. 33-9447; 34-70298/August 30, 2013]
Order Making Fiscal Year 2014 Annual Adjustments to Registration
Fee Rates
I. Background
The Commission collects fees under various provisions of the
securities laws. Section 6(b) of the Securities Act of 1933
(``Securities Act'') requires the Commission to collect fees from
issuers on the registration of securities.\1\ Section 13(e) of the
Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (``Exchange Act'') requires the
Commission to collect fees on specified repurchases of securities.\2\
Section 14(g) of the Exchange Act requires the Commission to collect
fees on proxy solicitations and statements in corporate control
transactions.\3\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\1\ 15 U.S.C. 77f(b).
\2\ 15 U.S.C. 78m(e).
\3\ 15 U.S.C. 78n(g).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
The Investor and Capital Markets Fee Relief Act of 2002 (``Fee
Relief Act'') \4\ required the Commission to make annual adjustments to
the fee rates applicable under these sections for each of the fiscal
years 2003 through 2011 in an attempt to generate collections equal to
yearly targets specified in the statute.\5\ Under the Fee Relief Act,
each year's fee rate was announced on the preceding April 30, and took
effect five days after the date of enactment of the Commission's
regular appropriation.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\4\ Public Law 107-123, 115 Stat. 2390 (2002).
\5\ See 15 U.S.C. 77f(b)(5), 77f(b)(6), 78m(e)(5), 78m(e)(6),
78n(g)(5) and 78n(g)(6).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
The Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act
(``Dodd-Frank Act'') \6\ changed many of the provisions related to
these fees. The Dodd-Frank Act created new annual collection targets
for FY 2012 and thereafter. It also changed the date by which the
Commission must announce a new fiscal year's fee rate (August 31) and
the date on which the new rate takes effect (October 1).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\6\ Public Law 111-203, 124 Stat.1376 (2010).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
II. Fiscal Year 2014 Annual Adjustment to the Fee Rate
Section 6(b)(2) of the Securities Act, as amended by the Dodd-Frank
Act, requires the Commission to make an annual adjustment to the fee
rate applicable under Section 6(b).\7\ The annual adjustment to the fee
rate under Section 6(b) of the Securities Act also sets the annual
adjustment to the fee rates under Sections 13(e) and 14(g) of the
Exchange Act.\8\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\7\ 15 U.S.C. 77f(b)(2). The annual adjustments are designed to
adjust the fee rate in a given fiscal year so that, when applied to
the aggregate maximum offering price at which securities are
proposed to be offered for the fiscal year, it is reasonably likely
to produce total fee collections under Section 6(b) equal to the
``target fee collection amount'' specified in Section 6(b)(6)(A) for
that fiscal year.
\8\ 15 U.S.C. 78m(e)(4) and 15 U.S.C. 78n(g)(4).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Section 6(b)(2) sets forth the method for determining the annual
adjustment to the fee rate under Section 6(b) for fiscal year 2014.
Specifically, the Commission must adjust the fee rate under Section
6(b) to a ``rate that, when applied to the baseline estimate of the
aggregate maximum offering prices for [fiscal year 2014], is reasonably
likely to produce aggregate fee collections under [Section 6(b)] that
are equal to the target fee collection amount for [fiscal year 2014].''
That is, the adjusted rate is determined by dividing the ``target fee
collection amount'' for fiscal year 2014 by the ``baseline estimate of
the aggregate maximum offering prices'' for fiscal year 2014.
Section 6(b)(6)(A) specifies that the ``target fee collection
amount'' for fiscal year 2014 is $485,000,000. Section 6(b)(6)(B)
defines the ``baseline estimate of the aggregate maximum offering
price'' for fiscal year 2014 as ``the baseline estimate of the
aggregate maximum offering price at which securities are proposed to be
offered pursuant to registration statements filed with the Commission
during [fiscal year 2014] as determined by the Commission, after
consultation with the Congressional Budget Office and the Office of
Management and Budget. . . .''
[[Page 54935]]
To make the baseline estimate of the aggregate maximum offering
price for fiscal year 2014, the Commission used a methodology similar
to that developed in consultation with the Congressional Budget Office
(``CBO'') and Office of Management and Budget (``OMB'') to project the
aggregate offering price for purposes of the fiscal year 2012 annual
adjustment (and identical to the methodology employed during fiscal
year 2013).\9\ Using this methodology, the Commission determines the
``baseline estimate of the aggregate maximum offering price'' for
fiscal year 2014 to be $3,766,638,654,272.\10\ Based on this estimate,
the Commission calculates the fee rate for fiscal 2014 to be $128.80
per million. This adjusted fee rate applies to Section 6(b) of the
Securities Act, as well as to Sections 13(e) and 14(g) of the Exchange
Act.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\9\ For the fiscal year 2011 estimate, the Commission used a
ten-year series of monthly observations ending in March 2011. For
fiscal year 2012, the Commission used a ten-year series ending in
July 2011. For fiscal year 2013, the Commission used a ten-year
series ending in July 2012. For fiscal year 2014, the Commission
used a ten-year series ending in July 2013.
\10\ Appendix A explains how we determined the ``baseline
estimate of the aggregate maximum offering price'' for fiscal year
2014 using our methodology, and then shows the purely arithmetical
process of calculating the fiscal year 2014 annual adjustment based
on that estimate. The appendix includes the data used by the
Commission in making its ``baseline estimate of the aggregate
maximum offering price'' for fiscal year 2014.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
III. Effective Dates of the Annual Adjustments
The fiscal year 2014 annual adjustments to the fee rates applicable
under Section 6(b) of the Securities Act and Sections 13(e) and 14(g)
of the Exchange Act will be effective on October 1, 2013.\11\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\11\ 15 U.S.C. 77f(b)(4), 15 U.S.C. 78m(e)(6) and 15 U.S.C.
78n(g)(6).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
IV. Conclusion
Accordingly, pursuant to Section 6(b) of the Securities Act and
Sections 13(e) and 14(g) of the Exchange Act,\12\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\12\ 15 U.S.C. 77f(b), 78m(e) and 78n(g).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
It is hereby ordered that the fee rates applicable under Section
6(b) of the Securities Act and Sections 13(e) and 14(g) of the Exchange
Act shall be $128.80 per million effective on October 1, 2013.
By the Commission.
Elizabeth M. Murphy,
Secretary.
Appendix A
With the passage of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and
Consumer Protection Act, Congress has, among other things,
established a target amount of monies to be collected from fees
charged to issuers based on the value of their registrations. This
appendix provides the formula for determining such fees, which the
Commission adjusts annually. Congress has mandated that the
Commission determine these fees based on the ``aggregate maximum
offering prices,'' which measures the aggregate dollar amount of
securities registered with the Commission over the course of the
year. In order to maximize the likelihood that the amount of monies
targeted by Congress will be collected, the fee rate must be set to
reflect projected aggregate maximum offering prices. As a
percentage, the fee rate equals the ratio of the target amounts of
monies to the projected aggregate maximum offering prices.
For 2014, the Commission has estimated the aggregate maximum
offering prices by projecting forward the trend established in the
previous decade. More specifically, an ARIMA model was used to
forecast the value of the aggregate maximum offering prices for
months subsequent to July 2013, the last month for which the
Commission has data on the aggregate maximum offering prices.
The following sections describe this process in detail.
A. Baseline Estimate of the Aggregate Maximum Offering Prices for
Fiscal Year 2014
First, calculate the aggregate maximum offering prices (AMOP)
for each month in the sample (July 2003-July 2013). Next, calculate
the percentage change in the AMOP from month to month.
Model the monthly percentage change in AMOP as a first order
moving average process. The moving average approach allows one to
model the effect that an exceptionally high (or low) observation of
AMOP tends to be followed by a more ``typical'' value of AMOP.
Use the estimated moving average model to forecast the monthly
percent change in AMOP. These percent changes can then be applied to
obtain forecasts of the total dollar value of registrations. The
following is a more formal (mathematical) description of the
procedure:
1. Begin with the monthly data for AMOP. The sample spans ten
years, from July 2003 to July 2013.
2. Divide each month's AMOP (column C) by the number of trading
days in that month (column B) to obtain the average daily AMOP
(AAMOP, column D).
3. For each month t, the natural logarithm of AAMOP is reported
in column E.
4. Calculate the change in log(AAMOP) from the previous month as
[Delta]t = log(AAMOPt) -
log(AAMOPt-1). This approximates the percentage change.
5. Estimate the first order moving average model
[Delta]t = [alpha] + [beta]et-1 +
et , where et denotes the forecast error for
month t. The forecast error is simply the difference between the
one-month ahead forecast and the actual realization of
[Delta]t . The forecast error is expressed as
et = [Delta]t - [alpha] -
[beta]et-1. The model can be estimated using standard
commercially available software. Using least squares, the estimated
parameter values are [alpha] = -0.0003334 and [beta] = -0.90946.
6. For the month of August 2013 forecast
[Delta]t = 8[sol]12 = [alpha] +
[beta]et = 7/12. For all subsequent months, forecast
[Delta]t = [alpha].
7. Calculate forecasts of log(AAMOP). For example, the forecast
of log(AAMOP) for October 2013 is given by
FLAAMOPt=10[sol]12 = log(AAMOPt=&7/12) +
[Delta]t=8/12 + [Delta]t=9/12 +
[Delta]t=10/12.
8. Under the assumption that et is normally
distributed, the n-step ahead forecast of AAMOP is given by
exp(FLAAMOPt + [sigma]n\2\/2), where
[sigma]n denotes the standard error of the n-step ahead
forecast.
9. For October 2013, this gives a forecast AAMOP of $14.93
billion (Column I), and a forecast AMOP of $343.4 billion (Column
J).
10. Iterate this process through September 2014 to obtain a
baseline estimate of the aggregate maximum offering prices for
fiscal year 2014 of $3,766,638,654,272.
B. Using the Forecasts From A To Calculate the New Fee Rate
1. Using the data from Table A, estimate the aggregate maximum
offering prices between 10/1/13 and 9/30/14 to be
$3,766,638,654,272.
2. The rate necessary to collect the target $485,000,000 in fee
revenues set by Congress is then calculated as: $485,000,000 /
$3,766,638,654,272 = 0.000128762.
3. Round the result to the seventh decimal point, yielding a
rate of 0.0001288 (or $128.80 per million).
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[FR Doc. 2013-21642 Filed 9-5-13; 8:45 am]
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