Solicitation of Comments on a Proposal To Revise Method for Estimation of Monthly Labor Force Statistics for Certain Subnational Areas, 60298-60299 [E9-27930]
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60298
Federal Register / Vol. 74, No. 223 / Friday, November 20, 2009 / Notices
and manufacturers whose quota
applications were received as of October
21, 2009.
Therefore, under the authority vested
in the Attorney General by Section 306
of the CSA (21 U.S.C. 826), and
delegated to the Administrator of the
DEA by 28 CFR 0.100, and redelegated
to the Deputy Administrator pursuant to
28 CFR 0.104, the Deputy Administrator
hereby orders that the 2010 Assessment
of Annual Needs for ephedrine,
pseudoephedrine, and
phenylpropanolamine, expressed in
kilograms of anhydrous acid or base, be
established as follows:
List I chemical
Established 2010
assessment of
annual needs
Ephedrine (for sale) ......
Phenylpropanolamine
(for sale) ....................
Pseudoephedrine (for
sale) ..........................
Phenylpropanolamine
(for conversion) .........
Ephedrine (for conversion) ..........................
3,600
6,400
404,000
16,500
private sector, of $120,000,000 or more
(adjusted for inflation) in any one year,
and will not significantly or uniquely
affect small governments. Therefore, no
actions were deemed necessary under
the provisions of the Unfunded
Mandates Reform Act of 1995.
This action is not a major rule as
defined by Section 804 of the Small
Business Regulatory Enforcement
Fairness Act of 1996 (Congressional
Review Act). This action will not result
in an annual effect on the economy of
$100,000,000 or more; a major increase
in costs or prices; or significant adverse
effects on competition, employment,
investment, productivity, innovation, or
on the ability of United States-based
companies to compete with foreignbased companies in domestic and
export markets.
Dated: November 11, 2009.
Michele M. Leonhart,
Deputy Administrator.
[FR Doc. E9–27890 Filed 11–19–09; 8:45 am]
BILLING CODE 4410–09–P
75,000
srobinson on DSKHWCL6B1PROD with NOTICES
DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
The Office of Management and Budget
has determined that notices of quotas
are not subject to centralized review
under Executive Order 12866.
This action does not preempt or
modify any provision of state law; nor
does it impose enforcement
responsibilities on any state; nor does it
diminish the power of any state to
enforce its own laws. Accordingly, this
action does not have any federalism
implications warranting the application
of Executive Order 13132.
The Deputy Administrator hereby
certifies that this action will not have a
significant economic impact upon a
substantial number of small entities
whose interests must be considered
under the Regulatory Flexibility Act, 5
U.S.C. 601–612. The establishment of
Assessment of Annual Needs for
ephedrine, pseudoephedrine, and
phenylpropanolamine is mandated by
law. The assessments are necessary to
provide for the estimated medical,
scientific, research and industrial needs
of the United States; for lawful export
requirements; and the establishment
and maintenance of reserve stocks.
Accordingly, the Deputy Administrator
has determined that this action does not
require a regulatory flexibility analysis.
This action meets the applicable
standards set forth in Sections 3(a) and
3(b)(2) of Executive Order 12988 Civil
Justice Reform.
This action will not result in the
expenditure by State, local, and tribal
governments, in the aggregate, or by the
VerDate Nov<24>2008
17:03 Nov 19, 2009
Jkt 220001
Bureau of Labor Statistics
Solicitation of Comments on a
Proposal To Revise Method for
Estimation of Monthly Labor Force
Statistics for Certain Subnational
Areas
AGENCY:
Bureau of Labor Statistics,
Labor.
ACTION: Notice of solicitation of
comments.
SUMMARY: The Department of Labor,
through the Bureau of Labor Statistics
(BLS), is responsible for the
development and publication of local
area labor force statistics. This program
includes the issuance of monthly
estimates of the labor force,
employment, unemployment, and the
unemployment rate for each State and
labor market area in the nation. A
hierarchy of estimation methods is used
to produce the 7,300 estimates covered
by the Local Area Unemployment
Statistics (LAUS) program (https://
thomas.loc.gov/bss/d111/
d111laws.html), based on the
availability and quality of data from the
Current Population Survey (CPS). The
strongest estimating method—signalplus-noise models with real-time
benchmarking for current estimation
and historical benchmarking—is
employed for all States and the District
of Columbia, the Los Angeles-Long
Beach-Glendale, CA metropolitan
division, New York City, and the
PO 00000
Frm 00064
Fmt 4703
Sfmt 4703
respective balances of New York and
California. Models are also employed for
five additional substate areas and their
State balances. The areas are: the
Chicago-Naperville-Joliet, IL
metropolitan division; the ClevelandElyria-Mentor, OH metropolitan area;
the Detroit-Warren-Livonia, MI
metropolitan area; the Miami-Miami
Beach-Kendall, FL metropolitan
division; and the Seattle-BellevueEverett, WA metropolitan division.
As part of a program of continuing
improvements in LAUS methodology,
BLS is proposing the implementation of
smoothed-seasonally-adjusted series for
current and historical estimates. This
approach is an innovative alternative to
an annual historical benchmark for
seasonally-adjusted State estimates that
will address longstanding issues related
to end-of-year revision, and also will
enhance the analytical capability of the
estimates.
BLS proposes to implement the
revised methodology beginning with
January 2010 current estimates, with
historical estimates revised to 1976 for
States, the District of Columbia, Los
Angeles, New York City, and the
respective balances of California and
New York. The five other substate
model estimates will be revised back to
1983.
DATES: Submit written comments on or
before December 21, 2009.
ADDRESSES: Send comments to Sharon
Brown, Division Chief, Division of Local
Area Unemployment Statistics, Bureau
of Labor Statistics, Room 4675, 2
Massachusetts Avenue, NE.,
Washington, DC 20212, by FAX at 202–
691–6459, or by e-mail at
Brown.Sharon@bls.gov.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT:
Sharon Brown, Division Chief, Division
of Local Area Unemployment Statistics,
Bureau of Labor Statistics, Room 4675,
2 Massachusetts Avenue, NE.,
Washington DC 20212, by telephone at
202–691–6390, or by e-mail at
LAUSRM@bls.gov.
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION:
I. Background
The Department of Labor, through the
BLS, has been responsible for the
development and publication of local
area labor force statistics since 1972. In
1978, the BLS broadened the use data
from the CPS in the LAUS program by
extending the annual reliability
criterion to monthly data. Monthly CPS
levels were used directly for the 10
largest States, two substate areas (New
York City, Los Angeles), and the
respective balances of New York and
California. In 1985, the sample redesign
E:\FR\FM\20NON1.SGM
20NON1
srobinson on DSKHWCL6B1PROD with NOTICES
Federal Register / Vol. 74, No. 223 / Friday, November 20, 2009 / Notices
and other efficiencies improved the
reliability of CPS data at the State level,
resulting in the current criterion on
monthly and annual average data of an
8 percent coefficient of variation on the
level of unemployment when the
unemployment rate is 6 percent. In
addition, North Carolina joined the
group of direct-use States. In 1989,
variable coefficient time-series models
for monthly estimation of State
employment and unemployment were
introduced for 39 States and the District
of Columbia. Further improvement was
effected with the implementation of
signal-plus-noise models in 1994. These
models rely heavily on monthly CPS
data, as well as current wage and salary
employment and unemployment
insurance statistics. State labor force
estimation for the direct-use States was
based the time series modeling
approach beginning in January 1996.
Improvements introduced with the
redesign in January 2005 ensured that
State estimates add to the national
estimates of employment and
unemployment each month, through
real-time benchmarking. In doing so, the
benchmark changed from annual Statelevel estimates of employment and
unemployment to monthly national
estimates of these measures. In this way,
economic shocks are reflected in the
State estimates on a real-time basis, and
end-of-year revisions are significantly
smaller.
Historical benchmarking is part of the
annual processing activities performed
on the models. The first two steps,
revision of inputs and model reestimation, are the same for both the
not-seasonally-adjusted (NSA) series
and the seasonally-adjusted series. The
final step, benchmarking to historical
control totals, differs by series. The NSA
estimates are benchmarked to monthly
Division model controls which have
been controlled to monthly national
CPS estimates. This ensures that the
monthly State NSA estimates sum to the
national CPS estimates. The annual
average of the NSA estimates is used to
control the monthly seasonally-adjusted
model estimates. This process preserves
the underlying smoothness in the model
estimates that would be lost by applying
the monthly benchmarking procedure.
However, the current procedure had
an unanticipated impact on the
historical benchmarking for the
seasonally-adjusted estimates during
2008. Unemployment rose steeply in the
nation and all States during 2008. The
benchmark methodology that required
the use of the annual average as the
historical control total for the
seasonally-adjusted estimates meant
that unemployment rates were adjusted
VerDate Nov<24>2008
17:03 Nov 19, 2009
Jkt 220001
downward during the latter months of
2008. This impacted comparisons with
January 2009 unemployment estimates
that continued to reflect the steep
economic decline. In addition to issues
with historical benchmarking, the
monthly real-time benchmarking
procedure introduces volatility into the
current seasonally-adjusted estimates,
producing estimates with spurious
turning points that are difficult to
explain to data users.
II. Current Action
To address these serious issues, the
BLS proposes modifying the procedures
for the seasonally-adjusted estimates
and implementing a smoothing
methodology for both current and
historical seasonally-adjusted series.
Smoothing the current series will
reduce the number of spurious turning
points in the estimates. For historical
estimates, the first two steps in annual
processing: revising model inputs and
re-estimating the series, are unchanged.
The last step, benchmarking to control
totals, will be revised for the seasonallyadjusted estimates. The use of the
annual average of the NSA series as the
control total will be dropped. Instead, as
in current monthly estimation, the
historical seasonally-adjusted series will
be adjusted by the same pro-rata factor
used in adjusting the NSA estimates to
the national control totals. Since the
pro-rata factors fluctuate from month-tomonth, this procedure will introduce
additional variability into the historical
series, which could dominate the
monthly change in the benchmarked
series. Smoothing the series following
the application of the pro-rata
adjustment will reduce the volatility
added. The smoother selected is the
Henderson Trend Filter (H13).
Detailed descriptions of the current
and proposed approaches are available
from the office listed above.
III. Desired Focus of Comments
Comments and recommendations are
requested from the public on the use of
the Henderson Trend Filter (H13) to
smooth the LAUS current and historical
seasonally adjusted estimates.
Signed at Washington, DC, this 17th day of
November 2009.
Kimberley Hill,
Acting Chief, Division of Management
Systems, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
[FR Doc. E9–27930 Filed 11–19–09; 8:45 am]
BILLING CODE 4510–24–P
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60299
DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
Employment and Training
Administration
Request for Certification of
Compliance—Rural Industrialization
Loan and Grant Program
AGENCY: Employment and Training
Administration, Labor.
ACTION: Notice.
SUMMARY: The Employment and
Training Administration is issuing this
notice to announce the receipt of a
‘‘Certification of Non-Relocation and
Market and Capacity Information
Report’’ (Form 4279–2) for the
following:
Applicant/Location: Legacy Senior
Care Group, LLC/Richfield, Ohio.
Principal Product/Purpose: The loan,
guarantee, or grant application is to
enable a new business venture to
construct and manage an assisted living
facility that also offers memory care.
The NAICS industry code for this
enterprise is: 623311 Continuing Care
Retirement Communities.
DATES: All interested parties may submit
comments in writing no later than
December 4, 2009. Copies of adverse
comments received will be forwarded to
the applicant noted above.
ADDRESSES: Address all comments
concerning this notice to Anthony D.
Dais, U.S. Department of Labor,
Employment and Training
Administration, 200 Constitution
Avenue, NW., Room S–4231,
Washington, DC 20210; or e-mail
Dais.Anthony@dol.gov; or transmit via
fax (202) 693–3015 (this is not a toll-free
number).
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT:
Anthony D. Dais, at telephone number
(202) 693–2784 (this is not a toll-free
number).
Section
188 of the Consolidated Farm and Rural
Development Act of 1972, as established
under 29 CFR Part 75, authorizes the
United States Department of Agriculture
to make or guarantee loans or grants to
finance industrial and business
activities in rural areas. The Secretary of
Labor must review the application for
financial assistance for the purpose of
certifying to the Secretary of Agriculture
that the assistance is not calculated, or
likely, to result in: (a) A transfer of any
employment or business activity from
one area to another by the loan
applicant’s business operation; or, (b)
An increase in the production of goods,
materials, services, or facilities in an
area where there is not sufficient
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION:
E:\FR\FM\20NON1.SGM
20NON1
]]>Agencies
[Federal Register Volume 74, Number 223 (Friday, November 20, 2009)]
[Notices]
[Pages 60298-60299]
From the Federal Register Online via the Government Printing Office [www.gpo.gov]
[FR Doc No: E9-27930]
=======================================================================
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
Bureau of Labor Statistics
Solicitation of Comments on a Proposal To Revise Method for
Estimation of Monthly Labor Force Statistics for Certain Subnational
Areas
AGENCY: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Labor.
ACTION: Notice of solicitation of comments.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
SUMMARY: The Department of Labor, through the Bureau of Labor
Statistics (BLS), is responsible for the development and publication of
local area labor force statistics. This program includes the issuance
of monthly estimates of the labor force, employment, unemployment, and
the unemployment rate for each State and labor market area in the
nation. A hierarchy of estimation methods is used to produce the 7,300
estimates covered by the Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)
program (https://thomas.loc.gov/bss/d111/d111laws.html), based on the
availability and quality of data from the Current Population Survey
(CPS). The strongest estimating method--signal-plus-noise models with
real-time benchmarking for current estimation and historical
benchmarking--is employed for all States and the District of Columbia,
the Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA metropolitan division, New York
City, and the respective balances of New York and California. Models
are also employed for five additional substate areas and their State
balances. The areas are: the Chicago-Naperville-Joliet, IL metropolitan
division; the Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor, OH metropolitan area; the
Detroit-Warren-Livonia, MI metropolitan area; the Miami-Miami Beach-
Kendall, FL metropolitan division; and the Seattle-Bellevue-Everett, WA
metropolitan division.
As part of a program of continuing improvements in LAUS
methodology, BLS is proposing the implementation of smoothed-
seasonally-adjusted series for current and historical estimates. This
approach is an innovative alternative to an annual historical benchmark
for seasonally-adjusted State estimates that will address longstanding
issues related to end-of-year revision, and also will enhance the
analytical capability of the estimates.
BLS proposes to implement the revised methodology beginning with
January 2010 current estimates, with historical estimates revised to
1976 for States, the District of Columbia, Los Angeles, New York City,
and the respective balances of California and New York. The five other
substate model estimates will be revised back to 1983.
DATES: Submit written comments on or before December 21, 2009.
ADDRESSES: Send comments to Sharon Brown, Division Chief, Division of
Local Area Unemployment Statistics, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Room
4675, 2 Massachusetts Avenue, NE., Washington, DC 20212, by FAX at 202-
691-6459, or by e-mail at Brown.Sharon@bls.gov.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Sharon Brown, Division Chief, Division
of Local Area Unemployment Statistics, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Room
4675, 2 Massachusetts Avenue, NE., Washington DC 20212, by telephone at
202-691-6390, or by e-mail at LAUSRM@bls.gov.
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION:
I. Background
The Department of Labor, through the BLS, has been responsible for
the development and publication of local area labor force statistics
since 1972. In 1978, the BLS broadened the use data from the CPS in the
LAUS program by extending the annual reliability criterion to monthly
data. Monthly CPS levels were used directly for the 10 largest States,
two substate areas (New York City, Los Angeles), and the respective
balances of New York and California. In 1985, the sample redesign
[[Page 60299]]
and other efficiencies improved the reliability of CPS data at the
State level, resulting in the current criterion on monthly and annual
average data of an 8 percent coefficient of variation on the level of
unemployment when the unemployment rate is 6 percent. In addition,
North Carolina joined the group of direct-use States. In 1989, variable
coefficient time-series models for monthly estimation of State
employment and unemployment were introduced for 39 States and the
District of Columbia. Further improvement was effected with the
implementation of signal-plus-noise models in 1994. These models rely
heavily on monthly CPS data, as well as current wage and salary
employment and unemployment insurance statistics. State labor force
estimation for the direct-use States was based the time series modeling
approach beginning in January 1996.
Improvements introduced with the redesign in January 2005 ensured
that State estimates add to the national estimates of employment and
unemployment each month, through real-time benchmarking. In doing so,
the benchmark changed from annual State-level estimates of employment
and unemployment to monthly national estimates of these measures. In
this way, economic shocks are reflected in the State estimates on a
real-time basis, and end-of-year revisions are significantly smaller.
Historical benchmarking is part of the annual processing activities
performed on the models. The first two steps, revision of inputs and
model re-estimation, are the same for both the not-seasonally-adjusted
(NSA) series and the seasonally-adjusted series. The final step,
benchmarking to historical control totals, differs by series. The NSA
estimates are benchmarked to monthly Division model controls which have
been controlled to monthly national CPS estimates. This ensures that
the monthly State NSA estimates sum to the national CPS estimates. The
annual average of the NSA estimates is used to control the monthly
seasonally-adjusted model estimates. This process preserves the
underlying smoothness in the model estimates that would be lost by
applying the monthly benchmarking procedure.
However, the current procedure had an unanticipated impact on the
historical benchmarking for the seasonally-adjusted estimates during
2008. Unemployment rose steeply in the nation and all States during
2008. The benchmark methodology that required the use of the annual
average as the historical control total for the seasonally-adjusted
estimates meant that unemployment rates were adjusted downward during
the latter months of 2008. This impacted comparisons with January 2009
unemployment estimates that continued to reflect the steep economic
decline. In addition to issues with historical benchmarking, the
monthly real-time benchmarking procedure introduces volatility into the
current seasonally-adjusted estimates, producing estimates with
spurious turning points that are difficult to explain to data users.
II. Current Action
To address these serious issues, the BLS proposes modifying the
procedures for the seasonally-adjusted estimates and implementing a
smoothing methodology for both current and historical seasonally-
adjusted series. Smoothing the current series will reduce the number of
spurious turning points in the estimates. For historical estimates, the
first two steps in annual processing: revising model inputs and re-
estimating the series, are unchanged. The last step, benchmarking to
control totals, will be revised for the seasonally-adjusted estimates.
The use of the annual average of the NSA series as the control total
will be dropped. Instead, as in current monthly estimation, the
historical seasonally-adjusted series will be adjusted by the same pro-
rata factor used in adjusting the NSA estimates to the national control
totals. Since the pro-rata factors fluctuate from month-to-month, this
procedure will introduce additional variability into the historical
series, which could dominate the monthly change in the benchmarked
series. Smoothing the series following the application of the pro-rata
adjustment will reduce the volatility added. The smoother selected is
the Henderson Trend Filter (H13).
Detailed descriptions of the current and proposed approaches are
available from the office listed above.
III. Desired Focus of Comments
Comments and recommendations are requested from the public on the
use of the Henderson Trend Filter (H13) to smooth the LAUS current and
historical seasonally adjusted estimates.
Signed at Washington, DC, this 17th day of November 2009.
Kimberley Hill,
Acting Chief, Division of Management Systems, Bureau of Labor
Statistics.
[FR Doc. E9-27930 Filed 11-19-09; 8:45 am]
BILLING CODE 4510-24-P
