Pennsylvania Code
Title 204 - JUDICIAL SYSTEM GENERAL PROVISIONS
Part VIII - CRIMINAL SENTENCING
Chapter 305 - SENTENCE RISK ASSESSENT INSTRUMENT
Section 305.2 - Sentence Risk Assessment Instrument methodology
Universal Citation: 204 PA Code ยง 305.2
Current through Register Vol. 54, No. 44, November 2, 2024
(a) Development and validation.
(1) The Commission
conducted a study using offenders sentenced during 2004-2006 (n=131,055) to
allow for a three-year follow-up period for all offenders, while taking
advantage of improvements in data quality and a more recent time period.
Additional information on the development and validation of the Sentence Risk
Assessment Instrument is available from the Commission.
(2) The Commission developed risk scales for
all offenders, except those with DUI as the most serious offense of the
judicial proceeding.
(3) In
developing the risk scales, the following analyses were conducted:
(i) bivariate analyses to determine which
factors were related to recidivism;
(ii) multivariate logistic regression to
determine which factors best predicted recidivism while holding other factors
constant;
(iii) rotation of all
categories for factors that were multi-categorical to ensure that reported
differences were real and not due to a particular comparison
category;
(iv) Receiver Operating
Characteristic (ROC) analysis, which plots the true positive rate (i.e., how
many people were predicted to recidivate and did recidivate) against the false
positive rate (i.e., how many people were predicted to recidivate but did not
recidivate); and
(v) validation of
the final scales with both samples.
(b) Risk factors and scales-general.
(1) Based upon the
analyses conducted by the Commission, the following factors were found to be
predictive of recidivism, and thus, used in the risk assessment scales:
(i) age;
(ii) gender;
(iii) number of prior convictions;
(iv) prior conviction offense type;
(v) current conviction offense
type;
(vi) multiple current
convictions;
(vii) prior juvenile
adjudication.
(2) The
risk scale for recidivism is located at § 305.7.
(c) Recidivism rates-general.
(1) The Sentence Risk
Assessment Instrument provides the probability of recidivism based on the
proportion of offenders in the development and validation samples who
recidivate. Offenders identified as low risk or high risk were found to be
significantly different in risk of recidivism than the typical
offender.
(2) Recidivism rates by
risk score for recidivism are located at § 305.8.
(d) Review and Re-validation.
(1) Following the
first year of utilization, the Commission shall analyze the impact of the
Instrument and the source of the information provided to the court, and shall
publish information on sentencing patterns and racial impact.
(2) The Commission shall re-validate the
Instrument every three years.
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