Current through Register Vol. 49, No. 13, September 23, 2024
Subpart 1.
Joint applications.
In a joint application, separate responses are required from
each person for information required by this part.
Subp. 2.
Scope.
Each application shall contain actual data and forecasts of
peak demand and annual gas consumption within the applicant's service area and
system. When recorded data is not available, or when the applicant does not use
the required data in preparing its own forecast, the applicant shall use an
estimate and indicate in the forecast justification section, subpart
4, the procedures used in
deriving the estimate. The application shall clearly indicate which are
historical data and which are estimates. Data provided by the applicant should
be reasonable and internally consistent.
Subp. 3.
Content.
For each forecast year, the following data shall be
provided:
A. if the applicant's
service area includes areas other than Minnesota, annual gas consumption by
ultimate consumers within the applicant's Minnesota service area;
B. annual gas consumption by ultimate
consumers and the number of such customers within the applicant's system in the
following categories:
(1) residential firm
(when gas is supplied through a single meter for both residential and
commercial uses, it should be reported according to its principal use, and
apartment buildings shall be reported as residential even if not metered
separately);
(2) commercial firm
using less than 200 Mcf on peak day;
(3) commercial firm with a peak day
requirement equal to or greater than 200 Mcf;
(4) industrial firm using less than 200 Mcf
on peak day;
(5) industrial firm
with a peak day requirement equal to or greater than 200 Mcf;
(6) commercial and industrial
interruptible;
(7) other (this
category shall include storage gas and other sales or deliveries not covered in
subitems (1) to (6));
(8)
unaccounted for; and
(9) the sum of
subitems (1) to (8);
C.
an estimate of the daily demand for gas by ultimate consumers in the
applicant's system for each of the categories listed in item B at the time of
the applicant's system peak demand; and
D. the applicant's system peak demand by
month.
Subp. 4.
Forecast justification.
A.
Forecast methodology: each applicant may use a forecast methodology of its own
choosing, with due consideration given to cost, staffing requirements, and data
availability. However, any forecasts provided by the applicant shall be subject
to tests of accuracy, reasonableness, and consistency. The applicant shall
detail the forecast methodology employed to obtain the forecasts provided under
subpart
3, including:
(1) the overall methodological framework that
is used;
(2) the specific
analytical techniques that are used, their purpose, and the components of the
forecast to which they have been applied;
(3) the manner in which these specific
techniques are related in producing the forecast;
(4) where statistical techniques have been
used, the purpose of the technique, typical computations (e.g., computer
printouts, formulas used), specifying variables and data, and the results of
appropriate statistical tests;
(5)
forecast confidence levels or ranges of accuracy for annual peak demand and
annual gas consumption, as well as a description of their derivation;
(6) a brief analysis of the methodology used,
including:
(a) its strength and
weaknesses;
(b) its suitability to
the system;
(c) cost
considerations;
(d) data
requirements;
(e) past accuracy;
and
(f) other factors considered
significant by the applicant; and
(7) an explanation of any discrepancies that
appear between the forecasts submitted to the commission under these rules and
those submitted under chapter 7610, or in the applicant's previous certificate
of need proceedings.
B.
Data base: the applicant shall discuss the data base used in arriving at the
forecast presented in its application, including:
(1) a complete list of all data sets used in
making the forecast, including a brief description of each data set and an
explanation of how each was obtained, (e.g., monthly observations, billing
data, consumer survey) or a citation to the source (e.g., population projection
from the state demographer's office);
(2) a clear identification of any adjustments
made to raw data to adapt them for use in forecasts, including the nature of
the adjustment, the reason for the adjustment, and the magnitude of the
adjustment.
The applicant shall provide to the commission or the
administrative law judge on demand copies of all data sets used in making the
forecasts, including both raw and adjusted data, and input and output
data.
C.
Assumptions and special information: the applicant shall discuss each essential
assumption made in preparing the forecast, including the need for the
assumption, the nature of the assumption, and the sensitivity of forecast
results to variations in the assumption.
D. Subject of assumption: the applicant shall
discuss the assumptions made regarding:
(1)
the availability of alternate sources of energy;
(2) the expected conversion from other fuels
to gas or vice versa;
(3) future
prices of gas for customers in the applicant's system and the effect that such
price changes will likely have on the applicant's system demand;
(4) the assumptions made in arriving at any
data requested in subpart
3 that are not available
historically or not generated by the applicant in preparing its own internal
forecast;
(5) the effect of
existing energy conservation programs under federal or state legislation on
long-term gas demand; and
(6) any
other factor considered by the applicant in preparing the forecast.
