Current through Register 1531, September 27, 2024
(1)
Scope and Purpose. This section sets forth the
requirements for forecasts of demand and sendout which every gas company must
meet in each long-range forecast in which a new facility is proposed. If no new
facility is proposed, a gas company shall be required to submit a forecast of
sendout only but shall not be required to submit a forecast of demand. Every
gas company must file a long-range forecast.
Forecasts of demand and sendout shall be submitted and reviewed
so that the Council may better determine whether plans for new facilities as
proposed by gas companies are in conformity with the energy, environmental and
economic policies of the Commonwealth.
Interstate natural gas companies subject to Federal Energy
Regulatory Commission regulation and persons who have filed an application with
the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission for construction of facilities subject
to the Natural Gas Act, and operating or intending to operate in Massachusetts
will file demand or sendout data with the Council. Such data may be extracted
from the companies' annual filings with the Federal Energy Regulatory
Commission and shall be for informational purposes only; no adjudicatory
proceedings will be held thereon. Duplicates of the companies' FERC filing may
be submitted in lieu of the above demand and sendout data.
(2)
Description of
Agreements.
(a) A long-range
forecast shall include summary descriptions of all existing agreements with
other gas companies relating to joint planning or joint forecasting of gas
needs, to construction of future facilities, or to the purchase or sale of gas.
This description shall include:
1. the names
of the parties to each agreement, identifying the role of each party;
2. the Federal agency or Massachusetts
Department of Public Utilities Docket or File Number, if any, associated with
the agreement;
3. the commencement
and termination dates of each agreement;
4. for agreements for the purchase or sale of
gas, the amount of gas that will or may be bought or sold in each year covered
by the long-range forecast. (If no figure is expressed in the contract, or if
it may not be possible to fulfill the contract entirely because of supply
constraints, the forecasting company shall estimate the amount of gas that will
be bought or sold in each year covered by the forecast.); and
5. for agreements for the joint planning or
forecasting of gas demand and sendout, a summary of the provisions of the
agreement.
(b) For the
purpose of this section the term "existing agreements" shall include such
contracts, letters of intent, and precedent agreements as contain legal
commitments. A company may at any time petition the Council by submitting a
contract, letter of intent, precedent agreement or other agreement for a
determination whether it is an existing agreement as defined in 980 CMR 7.06.
The Council may require further information and shall within 60 days of the
petition issue a determination. A company may petition in the alternative for a
determination pursuant to 980 CMR 7.06(2)(b) that an item is not an existing
agreement or for a determination pursuant to
980 CMR
4.04(3) that the item is
exempt from public access; in such event the Council shall protect the
confidentiality of the item as provided by
980 CMR
4.04(4).
(3)
Demand and Sendout
Forecasting Requirements. Each long-range forecast shall meet the
requirements specified in 980 CMR 7.06(4) and 7.06(7).
(4)
Time Frame.
(a) Except as provided by 980 CMR 7.06(4)(b)
or (c), the period of time to be covered by the forecast shall include:
1. the five calendar years preceding the year
in which the forecast is submitted, for purposes of establishing historical
baseline data for each of the categories of information to be included in the
forecast;
2. the current calendar
year, for which both projected and actual data shall be submitted;
and
3. at least the succeeding five
calendar years.
(b) For
purposes of the forecast required to be filed on or before May 1, 1976, the
period of time to be covered shall, if the company forecasts on a calendar
basis, include:
1. the years 1970 through 1974
for historical purposes;
2. the
year 1975 as the current year; and
3. at least the years 1976 through 1980 for
forecast purposes.
(5)
Methodology for Forecasting
Demand and Sendout. The Coimcil does not prescribe a particular
methodology that must be used by all gas companies in forecasting fixture
demand and sendout. However, the selected methodology must be explained and
justified by the forecasting company in accordance with the requirements of
this section. Furthermore, the methodology must meet the applicable
requirements of
980 CMR
7.09.
(a)
The methodology shall be fully described, and such description shall include or
be accompanied by:
1. identification of
significant determinants of future demand and sendout, and of the means by
which they were taken into account;
2. description of data used in making the
forecast, and identification of the sources of such data;
3. explanation of techniques employed for
gathering, organizing, adjusting, and extrapolating from or interpreting the
data, together with examples of the applications of such techniques;
4. significant assumptions made and the
reasons for making them;
5. a
statement of the level of confidence of the company in dependent and
independent variables, and explanations of how each statement of the level of
confidence was determined.
(b) The forecast shall be accompanied by
explanations of whether and, if so, how it takes into accovmt and how were
obtained the following actual and estimated determinants of future demand and
sendout:
1. population;
2. price of gas and price elasticity of
demand for gas (including costs of feedstocks used in production of gas), both
absolute and relative to those of other forms of energy that may be substituted
for gas and in end uses;
3. income
of consumers, or value of the gross product of the service area;
4. energy policies of the Commonwealth and of
the federal government, both currently existing and possible for the
future;
5. constraints upon the
availability of gas or feedstocks;
6. strategies of the forecasting company for
promoting consumption or conservation of gas; and
7. any other factors deemed relevant, such as
investment by others in and use of capital goods that require gas, including
residential appliances (e.g., stoves, water heaters and space heating systems),
industrial and commercial equipment.
(c) The forecast documentation shall be
sufficiently explicit and complete to allow the Council to fully understand the
forecast from the information presented.
(6)
Contents of
Forecast. The demand and sendout forecast shall include the
following items for each of the years it covers:
(a) total annual gas demand and sendout in
the forecast area, with breakdown for each of the classes specified in 980 CMR
7.06(7);
(b) the peak daily winter
demand and sendout, with a breakdown for each of the classes specified in 980
CMR 7.06(7)(a) and (b);
(c) annual
load factor, defined as average daily demand and sendout divided by maximum
daily demand and sendout;
(d)
annual load duration curve, defined as the duration in days of each level of
daily sendout;
(e) load profiles,
defined as sendout to be graphed as a function of the time of day, for a
representative weekday in both January and August and for the winter peak
day;
(f) load profiles, defined as
annual demand and sendout graphed as a function of the day of the year.
Forecasts of the items required by 980 CMR 7.06(6)(c) and (f) are required only
with reference to total gas demand and sendout in the forecast areas. Forecasts
of the items required by 980 CMR 7.06(6)(d) and (e) are required only with
reference to total gas sendout in the forecast area; no forecast of demand is
required.
(7)
Level of Aggregation.
(a) Separate forecasts of total annual demand
and sendout and of peak daily winter demand and sendout shall be made for each
customer class used by the company for billing purposes, and there shall be
included data for losses, gas used by the company and gas unaccounted
for.
(b) For each rate class the
customers of which are predominantly residential, the demand and sendout data
required by 980 CMR 7.06(6)(a) and (b) shall be disaggregated for customers
with and for customers without gas heating.
(c) For each rate class the customers of
which are predominantly industrial, the demand and sendout data required by 980
CMR 7.06(6)(a) shall be disaggregated by two digit Standard hidustrial
Classification Code.
