2024 LNG Export Study: Energy, Economic, and Environmental Assessment of U.S. LNG Exports, 104132-104137 [2024-30370]
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establishes the blueprint for DOE’s
energy storage roadmap (Section 5). The
roadmap provides more tactical
direction, informed by the mission,
vision, and strategic approach.
Section 3 presents an overview of the
types of DOE activities that support
DOE’s Energy Storage SRM. Activities
include not only conventional research
activities, but also those efforts that are
foundational and crosscutting in
support of the mission and vision of the
SRM as well as stakeholder
engagements. Representative activities
are identified in the appendix.
Section 4 describes the portfolio of
energy storage technologies and
highlights opportunities for future DOE
investment based on the current
landscape of technologies and use cases.
Section 5 describes the path forward
to achieve the strategic objectives and
vision of this Energy Storage SRM. This
section highlights DOE activities to
facilitate technology innovation and
deployment, to empower decisionmakers, and to strengthen collaboration
throughout the energy storage
ecosystem.
Finally, Section 6 summarizes
anticipated outcomes and next steps
over the next decade as DOE works to
implement this Energy Storage SRM.
The appendices provide additional
context for the Energy Storage SRM:
Appendix A identifies DOE offices
with relevant energy storage R&D
programs.
Appendix B provides a list of
acronyms used in this document.
Appendix C provides a list of key
terms and definitions used in this
document.
Appendix D provides updates to the
ESGC 2020 Roadmap action items and
targets; it also describes major
transitions from the ESGC 2020
Roadmap to the current SRM.
Appendix E identifies representative
DOE activities contributing to DOE’s
energy storage portfolio.
Appendix F reviews the relevant 2015
Grid Modernization Initiative MultiYear Program Plan (GMI MYPP) energy
storage activities and provides updates
on recommended tasks. Additionally,
relevant elements of the GMI MYPP
2020 Update are also discussed.
Appendix G highlights relevant policy
and regulatory drivers impacting the
energy storage landscape.
Appendix H highlights representative
examples of DOE’s international energy
storage activities and initiatives.
Appendix I summarizes the
recommendations from the Electricity
Advisory Committee’s 2022 Biennial
Energy Storage Review, which focused
on the ESGC 2020 Roadmap.
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DOE is seeking general feedback on
the draft Energy Storage SRM as part of
its process to update the ESGC 2020
Roadmap.
Signing Authority
This document of the Department of
Energy was signed on December 4, 2024,
by Gene Rodrigues, Assistant Secretary
for the Office of Electricity, pursuant to
delegated authority from the Secretary
of Energy. That document with the
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requirements of the Office of the Federal
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document in electronic format for
publication, as an official document of
the Department of Energy. This
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the legal effect of this document upon
publication in the Federal Register.
Signed in Washington, DC, on December
17, 2024.
Treena V. Garrett,
Federal Register Liaison Officer, U.S.
Department of Energy.
[FR Doc. 2024–30390 Filed 12–19–24; 8:45 am]
BILLING CODE 6450–01–P
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
2024 LNG Export Study: Energy,
Economic, and Environmental
Assessment of U.S. LNG Exports
VENTURE GLOBAL CALCASIEU PASS, LLC
[DOCKET NO. 13–69–LNG, 14–88–LNG, & 15–
25–LNG]; VENTURE GLOBAL PLAQUEMINES
LNG, LLC [DOCKET NO. 16–28–LNG];
COMMONWEALTH LNG, LLC [DOCKET NO.
19–134–LNG]; PORT ARTHUR LNG PHASE II,
LLC [DOCKET NO. 20–23–LNG]; VENTURE
GLOBAL CP2 LNG, LLC [DOCKET NO. 21–131–
LNG]; NEW FORTRESS ENERGY LOUISIANA
FLNG LLC [DOCKET NO. 22–39–LNG];
MEXICO PACIFIC LIMITED LLC [DOCKET NO.
22–167–LNG]; GULFSTREAM LNG
DEVELOPMENT, LLC [DOCKET NO. 23–34–
LNG]; CORPUS CHRISTI LIQUEFACTION, LLC;
CCL MIDSCALE 8–9, LLC; AND CHENIERE
MARKETING, LLC [DOCKET NO. 23–46–LNG];
LAKE CHARLES EXPORTS, LLC [DOCKET NO.
23–87–LNG]; SOUTHERN LNG COMPANY,
L.L.C. [DOCKET NO. 23–109–LNG];
MAGNOLIA LNG, LLC [DOCKET NO. 23–137–
LNG]; SABINE PASS LIQUEFACTION, LLC AND
SABINE PASS LIQUEFACTION STAGE V, LLC
[DOCKET NO. 24–27–LNG]; GATO NEGRO
PERMITIUM DOS, S.A.P.I. DE C.V. [DOCKET
NO. 24–87–LNG].
AGENCY: Office of Fossil Energy &
Carbon Management, Department of
Energy.
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Notice of availability of the 2024
LNG Export Study and request for
comments.
ACTION:
The Office of Fossil Energy &
Carbon Management (FECM) of the
Department of Energy (DOE) gives
notice of availability of a multi-volume
study updating DOE’s understanding of
the potential effects of U.S. liquefied
natural gas (LNG) exports on the
domestic economy; U.S. households and
consumers; communities that live near
locations where natural gas is produced
or exported; domestic and international
energy security, including effects on
U.S. trading partners; and the
environment and climate (Study or 2024
LNG Export Study). The Study is
composed of a summary report and four
appendices containing three
coordinated modeled analyses and a
qualitative literature review. The Study
materials are available on the DOE/
FECM website at https://
www.energy.gov/fecm/regulation. DOE
intends to use the Study to inform its
public interest review of, and ultimately
decisions in, certain applications to
export LNG to countries with which the
United States does not have a free trade
agreement (FTA) requiring national
treatment for trade in natural gas and
with which trade is not prohibited by
U.S. law or policy (non-FTA
applications), including decisions in the
above-referenced proceedings and
future proceedings, and for other
purposes. DOE invites the submission of
comments regarding the Study. DOE
does not intend to revise the Study
upon receipt of comments. Rather,
comments received will inform DOE’s
public interest determination in each of
the above-listed non-FTA application
proceedings and future non-FTA export
proceedings. Comments submitted in
compliance with the instructions in this
Notice will be placed in the
administrative record for all of the
above-listed proceedings and need only
be submitted once.
DATES: Comments are to be filed
pursuant to the procedures detailed in
the Public Comment Procedures section
no later than 4:30 p.m., Eastern time,
February 18, 2025. DOE will not accept
reply comments (i.e., comments
responding to other commenter’s
comments).
SUMMARY:
ADDRESSES:
Electronic Filing of Comments Using
Online Form (Strongly encouraged):
https://fossil.energy.gov/app/
docketindex/docket/index/30.
Postal Mail, Hand Delivery, or Private
Delivery Services (e.g., FedEx, UPS,
etc.): U.S. Department of Energy (FE–
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34), Office of Regulation, Analysis, and
Engagement, Office of Fossil Energy and
Carbon Management, Forrestal Building,
Room 3E–056, 1000 Independence
Avenue SW, Washington, DC 20585.
Due to potential delays in DOE’s
receipt and processing of mail sent
through the U.S. Postal Service, we
encourage respondents to submit
comments electronically to ensure
timely receipt.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Ms.
Beverly Howard, Docket Room Manager,
U.S. Department of Energy (FE–34),
Office of Regulation, Analysis, and
Engagement, Office of Resource
Sustainability, Office of Fossil Energy
and Carbon Management, Forrestal
Building, Room 3E–042, 1000
Independence Avenue SW, Washington,
DC 20585, (202) 586–9478, FERGAS@
hq.doe.gov.
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION:
Background
DOE is responsible for authorizing
exports of domestically produced
natural gas, including LNG, to foreign
countries under section 3 of the Natural
Gas Act (NGA), 15 U.S.C. 717b.1 Under
the NGA, an application to export
domestically produced natural gas as
LNG to countries that have an FTA with
the United States is deemed to be
consistent with the public interest by
statute and must be granted without
modification or delay. As for an
application to export domestically
produced natural gas, including LNG, to
countries that have no FTA with the
United States, but with which trade is
not prohibited by U.S. law or policy
(non-FTA countries), DOE must grant
the application, unless it finds that the
proposed exportation will not be
consistent with the public interest.
Since 2012, to inform its public
interest determination, DOE has
commissioned multiple studies to help
assess the various facets of the public
interest that are affected by U.S. LNG
exports, including how different levels
of LNG exports could impact the U.S.
economy, environmental and climate
considerations, and energy security and
international considerations. DOE’s
most recent economic and
environmental analyses of U.S. LNG
exports were published in 2018 and
2019, respectively. At that time, U.S.
LNG exports were just getting underway
and U.S. export capacity was 4 billion
cubic feet per day, less than one-third of
1 The authority to regulate the imports and
exports of natural gas, including LNG, under
section 3 of the NGA has been delegated to the
Assistant Secretary for FECM in Redelegation Order
No. S4–DEL–FE1–2023, issued on April 10, 2023.
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what it is today. Since then, both the
world as well as the global natural gas
sector have changed significantly. The
purpose of the 2024 LNG Export Study
is to provide an update to DOE’s prior
analyses and understanding of how
varying levels of U.S. LNG exports
impact and inform DOE’s statutory
public interest determination.
2024 LNG Export Study
The Study comprises a summary
report and four appendices.
First, Appendix A: Global Energy and
Greenhouse Gas Implications of U.S.
LNG Exports presents an analysis of the
global market demand for U.S. LNG
exports across a range of scenarios and
the global emissions impacts of
increased U.S. LNG exports through
2050. The three defining variables in the
scenario design are (1) global climate
policies and policy ambition, (2)
technology availability, and (3) U.S.
LNG export levels. This analysis uses
the Global Change Analysis Model
(GCAM), which is an integrated
multisector model of global energy,
economy, agriculture, land use, water,
and climate systems. DOE’s Pacific
Northwest National Laboratory
conducted the principal modeling work
in Appendix A.
Second, Appendix B: Domestic
Energy, Economic, and Greenhouse Gas
Assessment of U.S. LNG Exports
presents an analysis of the implications
of the various U.S. LNG export levels on
the U.S. economy and greenhouse gas
(GHG) emissions. The analysis in
Appendix B was conducted using an
updated and adapted version of the U.S.
Energy Information Administration’s
National Energy Modeling System
(NEMS) and Industrial Economics’
Household Energy Impact Distribution
Model. OnLocation, Inc. and Industrial
Economics, Incorporated performed the
principal modeling work in Appendix
B.
Third, Appendix C: Consequential
Greenhouse Gas Analysis of U.S. LNG
Exports is an analysis of global GHG
emissions in response to increased U.S.
LNG Exports. DOE’s National Energy
Technology Laboratory (NETL)
performed the principal modeling work
in Appendix C.
Finally, Appendix D: Addendum on
Environmental and Community Effects
of U.S. LNG Exports is a literature
review of the effects of upstream,
midstream, and downstream natural gas
production and exports on the
environment and on local communities.
This appendix summarizes key findings
from peer-reviewed scientific literature,
as well as publications from industry
and non-governmental organizations.
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Staff in DOE headquarters, with support
from NETL, prepared the summary
information in Appendix D.
Appendices A, B, and C present
scenarios that evaluate the impact of
different levels of U.S. LNG exports on
global and domestic energy systems.
This Study does not attach probabilities
to any of these scenarios and is not
intended to serve as a forecast of U.S.
LNG exports and associated impacts.
Rather, the 2024 LNG Export Study
explores a range of conditions that rely
on the described assumptions. The
primary reference for comparison in this
Study is the level of U.S. LNG exports
as it moves from levels associated with
facilities that are operating or under
construction pursuant to a final
investment decision (FID) as of
December 2023 (referred to as Existing/
FID Exports levels) to levels determined
by the global energy model (GCAM) in
response to policy and technology
assumptions (referred to as Model
Resolved levels).
Key U.S. natural gas supply and
economic impact findings include:
• The price of natural gas at the
Henry Hub in Louisiana, a main trading
hub for natural gas in the U.S., increases
in scenarios where the export level is
Model Resolved (i.e., based on modeled
global demand and unconstrained U.S.
LNG exports) when compared with
Existing/FID Exports.
—Across the Defined Policies with
reference U.S. supply assumptions,
the 2050 Henry Hub natural gas price
increases 31% in 2022 dollars (from
$3.53/MMBtu to $4.62/MMBtu), as
U.S. LNG exports increase in response
to the modeled global demand level.
The modeled price increase is
equivalent to about $0.03/MMBtu for
every billion cubic feet/day (Bcf/d) of
increased LNG export above existing
and FID levels.2
—This study does not include forwardlooking modeling on the impacts of
increasing LNG exports on natural gas
price volatility. Given the unique role
of the U.S. as the largest global
producer, consumer, and, more
recently, exporter of natural gas, there
is uncertainty in how rising export
levels will affect the domestic market.
While there has not been a consistent
relationship between domestic prices
and export levels to date, that could
change as a larger percentage of U.S.
natural gas is exported. Current
authorized export levels (over 48 Bcf/
d) are equivalent to approximately
2 For comparison, Henry Hub prices in 2022 and
2023 were $6.45/MMBtu and $2.53/MMBtu,
respectively.
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45% of current U.S. natural gas
production.
• The impacts of increasing U.S. LNG
exports on domestic natural gas prices
vary by region. Within the model, LNG
export facilities are assumed to be
centered in the Gulf Coast region. While
gas is sourced from regions around the
country, the Gulf Coast and Southwest
regions experience the greatest price
impacts from increased LNG exports in
model projections.
• Higher U.S. LNG export levels in
2050 are associated with higher U.S.
residential natural gas prices.
—In the Defined Policies scenarios, U.S.
residential natural gas prices are 4%
higher in 2050 in 2022 dollars when
the scenario assumes Model Resolved
levels of exports compared to
Existing/FID Exports levels.
—When sensitivity scenarios assume
low U.S. natural gas supply, the
higher level of U.S. LNG exports
under Model Resolved assumptions
compared to Existing/FID Exports
assumptions results in 7% higher
residential gas prices in 2050. When
the sensitivity scenarios assume high
U.S. natural gas supply, the higher
level of U.S. LNG exports results in
3% higher prices in 2050.
• Under the Defined Policies scenario
with the reference U.S. supply
assumption, the estimated annual
energy expenditure impacts of the
increased 2050 natural gas prices across
all socioeconomic levels and census
divisions are:
—Up to a $122.54 per year average
increase for natural gas plus
electricity expenditures across all
households, with average household
expenditure impacts up to 0.50% of
average annual income and 3.4% of
natural gas and electricity bills,3
including:
D Up to a $46.52 per year average
increase for natural gas expenditures at
natural gas households (households
identified in the National Energy
Modeling System, or NEMS model, as
using natural gas for space heating),
with an average natural gas household
expenditure impact of up to 0.24% of
average annual income and 6.7% of
average natural gas bills; and
D Up to a $118.37 per year average
increase for electricity expenditures
across all households, with an average
household expenditure impact of up to
0.5% of average annual income and
3.5% of average electricity bills.
3 Due to regional differences, the per year average
increase for natural gas plus electricity is less than
the sum of the per year average increase for natural
gas and electricity expenditures.
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—This analysis did not explore the
impact of increased natural gas and
electricity prices on broader consumer
and industrial goods, which could
have an additional impact on
consumer expenditures.
• NEMS includes granular detail
about the energy system, such as prices,
and a separate macroeconomic module
that provides feedback on changes in
the broader economy. One result of the
model’s configuration is that increases
in energy production in response to
LNG exports generally yield increases in
gross domestic product (GDP) in the
modeling framework, but secondary
effects (e.g., effects resulting from
changes in the price of consumer goods)
may moderate this relationship.4 As an
example of this effect, in the Defined
Policies scenario with reference U.S.
supply assumptions, increasing exports
from existing and FID levels to Model
Resolved levels results in a 0.2%
increase in GDP in 2050 ($80 billion,
2022 dollars), and cumulatively from
2020 to 2050, GDP increases $410
billion (2022 dollars discounted at 3%).
GDP is one of several measures of
economic activity, and an increase in
GDP does not necessarily correlate with
a positive effect on broader public and
consumer welfare.
• Across all scenarios, modeled U.S.
domestic natural gas supply is sufficient
to meet modeled global demand for U.S.
LNG while continuing to meet domestic
demand. This result holds across
sensitivity scenarios on U.S. oil and gas
supply.
Key energy security findings include:
• The global market for LNG has been
increasing for several years, and LNG regasification and associated import
infrastructure is being built out globally,
but future demand for natural gas and
LNG is uncertain and the demand
centers are expected to shift.
• DOE natural gas export
authorizations do not include
destination restrictions beyond a
prohibition to exporting to sanctioned
countries. Accordingly, U.S. LNG
generally follows global market demand.
—During the five years before Russia’s
invasion of Ukraine, from 2016
through 2021, South Korea, Japan,
and China were the top three
importers of U.S. LNG, collectively
importing 34% of U.S. exports, while
Europe imported 28%.
—From 2022 through 2023, that mix
changed, with the share delivered to
Europe growing to more than 63% of
total U.S. LNG exports, while exports
4 See Appendix B for further discussion of how
NEMS models GDP.
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to Asia were reduced to over 24% of
the total.
• While Europe has been the primary
destination for U.S. LNG from 2016 to
present, global demand and the
destination of U.S. LNG in the future are
less certain.
—European policies aim to reduce the
use of fossil fuels, including natural
gas. Demand for natural gas and LNG
in Asia is expected to increase in most
scenarios.
—China has recently become the largest
global importer of LNG and has
signed several contracts with
operating or proposed U.S. LNG
projects.
—China is expected to have the highest
LNG imports of any country across all
scenarios in 2050.
—Countries’ decarbonization policies
and the availability of more costcompetitive energy sources, such as
coal and renewables, will determine
the outlook for U.S. LNG’s role in the
global energy market and the energy
transition.
Key GHG emission findings include:
• The ultimate global GHG
consequences of U.S. LNG exports
depend on market effects such as
changes in energy demand and the
sources used to meet that demand for
electricity and other uses of natural gas.
A consequential lifecycle analysis
enables an examination of how the
availability of U.S. LNG may affect
global energy consumption, what types
of energy U.S. LNG would displace, and
the resulting global greenhouse gas
implications.5 When comparing Model
Resolved to Existing/FID scenarios,
increased availability of U.S. LNG from
23.7 Bcf/d to 56.3 Bcf/d in 2050 results
in an additional 0.08% in cumulative
(2020–2050) global services and an
increase of 711 million metric tons
(MMT) carbon dioxide equivalent
(CO2e) or 0.05% in cumulative global
GHG emissions.6
• Attributional studies estimate direct
emissions associated with use of natural
5 Past DOE and NETL life cycle studies of natural
gas, including LNG, have been attributional studies
that estimate emissions associated with units of
natural gas, LNG, or other fuels used to generate a
megawatt-hour (MWh) of baseload electricity. A
consequential LCA accounts for the direct
emissions from production, delivery, and use of the
U.S. exported natural gas and the indirect emissions
from changes in market behavior, such as
substitution of natural gas for other sources of
energy or additional energy use. The consequential
GHG intensity calculated in this study is therefore
the total effect (direct and indirect market effects)
of U.S. LNG on global GHG emissions per unit of
U.S. LNG exported.
6 Global services are defined as those products of
the global economy that provide services to
consumers, such as energy, commodities, fertilizers,
etc.
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gas, LNG, or other fuels used to generate
electricity. These studies do not directly
consider market effects of the exported
gas but are used to compare the
potential environmental profiles of
alternatives. Comparing Model Resolved
to Existing/FID Exports levels in the
Defined Policies scenario, the direct life
cycle GHG emissions from production,
export, and end use (assuming 100%
combustion without carbon capture and
storage, or CCS) of increased U.S. LNG
exports, before accounting for market
effects, would cumulatively (2020–
2050) contribute 8,588 MMT CO2e
based on an attributional life cycle GHG
profile of 76 g CO2e/megajoule (MJ). In
2050, direct life cycle GHG emissions
from all U.S. LNG would be
approximately 1,500 MMT CO2e before
accounting for market effects.
• The additional GHG emissions per
unit of additional U.S. LNG exported, or
the consequential GHG emissions
intensity, varies by scenario as shown in
the table below.
CUMULATIVE (2020–2050) CONSEQUENTIAL GHG INTENSITIES OF U.S. LNG EXPORTS
Cumulative (2020–2050) change in . . .
Comparison of scenarios
Existing/FID Exports to Model
Resolved.
2050 U.S. LNG
exports
(Exajoule or EJ)
[Bcf/d] a
Scenario
Defined Policies .......................
20.3 [56.3]
Commitments (High CCS) .......
Commitments (Mod CCS) ........
Net Zero (High CCS) ...............
Net Zero (Mod CCS) c ..............
11.9
9.7
10.3
6.2
U.S. LNG
exports
(EJ)
[% increase from
existing/FID]
[33.1]
[26.8]
[28.5]
[17.2]
GHG emissions
(MMT CO2e)
[% increase from
existing/FID] b
Global
services
(%)
Cumulative
consequential
GHG
emissions
intensity
(g CO2e/MJ)
113 [50%]
711 [0.05%]
0.08
6.3
31 [14%]
11 [5%]
17 [8%]
0
97 [0.01%]
67 [0.01%]
21 [0.002%]
NA
0.02
0.01
0.01
NA
3.1
5.9
1.2
NA
a 2050
U.S. LNG export levels for Model Resolved scenarios.
change in GHG emissions (2020–2050) are 1.2% higher than the GCAM results to align the upstream emission estimates with NETL estimates that
are used to explore upstream and liquefaction facility contributions to the consequential results (see Appendix C for additional details).
c Net Zero (Mod CCS) U.S. LNG export levels do not change between the Existing/FID Exports to Model Resolved scenarios resulting in no change in global emissions or services, the results are listed as ‘‘NA’’ or Not Applicable.
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b Cumulative
• Across scenarios in which U.S. LNG
exports are assumed to exceed modelresolved levels (up to +20 Bcf/d by
2050, corresponding to the High Exports
assumption for U.S. LNG exports),
global cumulative GHG emissions
(2020–2050) are 324 MMT CO2e to
1,452 MMT CO2e higher than their
counterparts with model-resolved levels
of U.S. LNG exports. With respect to
cumulative consequential GHG
emissions intensity, that is equivalent to
a range of 3.5 g CO2e/MJ to 12.6 CO2e/
MJ for additional U.S. LNG exports.
• The increase in global GHG
emissions between the Defined Policies:
Model Resolved and Defined Policies:
Existing/FID scenarios is estimated to
result in a cumulative social cost of
GHG (SC–GHG) impact of $84 billion
using a discount rate of 2.5%, $140
billion using a discount rate of 2.0%,
and $250 billion using a discount rate
of 1.5% (all in 2022$). The cumulative
SC–GHG of the increase in global
emissions across the study scenarios
ranges from $3 billion to $170 billion
(2.5%) to $13 billion to $500 billion
(1.5%) in 2022 dollars.
Key environmental and community
effects findings include:
• The production and transportation
of natural gas in the U.S., including
natural gas for export, has energy, labor/
workforce, economic, environmental,
and social justice implications, among
others.
• Production and upstream impacts
—Increased U.S. natural gas production
increases upstream environmental
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impacts, including on water, air, and
land.
—Natural gas production and
processing emits pollutants that are
harmful to human health.
—Researchers have found spatial and
temporal (i.e., location and timing)
correlations between seismic events
and the disposal of produced water
from oil and gas production through
underground injection into saltwater
disposal wells in several states
including Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas,
Colorado, Arkansas, and Ohio.
Various means are underway to
reduce the impact, such as recycling
produced water, rather than disposing
of it.
• Community Effects
—Natural gas production and
processing impacts upstream,
midstream, and downstream
communities in harmful and
beneficial ways. Additional research
is needed on the impact of LNG
exportation on local communities. In
particular, in areas with existing
heavy industry, the cumulative
impact of LNG exports has yet to be
determined.
—From an economic perspective,
natural gas production and the
development of natural gas export
infrastructure tends to increase
employment and wages in regions and
communities where it occurs, but
some evidence indicates that higherwage jobs often go to people who
either move to the area or commute,
rather than to long-term residents.
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—Growth in oil and gas production
brings new revenues to local
governments, but it can also bring
additional burdens such as increased
emergency services and police,
expansion of water and wastewater
infrastructure, and potential damage
due to increased heavy road usage.
—Mineral rights owners receive
royalties from oil and gas production,
though such recipients are not always
local residents.
—Quality of life impacts from natural
gas development include noise, light
pollution, dust, increased traffic,
crime, and social disruptions due to
the cyclical nature of an industry
oriented toward commodity
production.
The purpose of this Notice is to notify
the public of the availability of the 2024
LNG Export Study and to enter the
Study into the administrative record of
the above listed non-FTA export
application proceedings.7 DOE invites
comments on the Study and how it may
inform DOE’s public interest analysis.
DOE does not intend to revise the 2024
Study upon receipt of comments.
Instead, both the 2024 LNG Export
Study, and the comments that DOE/
FECM receives in response to this
Notice, will inform DOE’s determination
7 For the purpose of this Notice, DOE is including
non-FTA export application proceedings that are
currently pending, where either (i) the
environmental review under the National
Environmental Protection Act (NEPA) led by other
Federal agencies is underway or complete, or (ii)
the application involves an extra-territorial
proceeding where the NEPA review is led by DOE.
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Federal Register / Vol. 89, No. 245 / Friday, December 20, 2024 / Notices
of the public interest in each of the
above listed non-FTA export application
proceedings and future non-FTA export
application proceedings.
ddrumheller on DSK120RN23PROD with NOTICES1
Request for Comment
DOE welcomes comments related to
how the Study should be applied to
DOE’s public interest determinations
going forward, as well as comments on
any aspects of the analyses and findings
in 2024 Study.
In particular, DOE solicits comment
on the methods and findings in
Appendix C. Appendix C provides a
method of estimating the emissions
intensity and SC–GHG for individual
U.S. LNG projects, and of estimating a
breakeven rate, which is the percent
change difference between an
individual project’s emissions intensity
and the default assumptions that would
result in consequential GHG intensity of
zero for the project. DOE seeks comment
on this method of estimating projectspecific emissions intensity and the
breakeven rate. DOE seeks comment on
what existing or developing
technologies would allow U.S. LNG
developers to achieve a breakeven rate,
and how developers have used these
technologies to reduce emissions.
DOE also seeks comment on whether
and how the 2024 Export Study might
support imposing LNG cargo or facilitylevel reporting requirements or other
conditions related to emissions on
authorization holders. To what extent
do recent changes to the Environmental
Protection Agency’s GHG reporting
rules ease the incremental burden that
would be associated with facility-level
or cargo-level emissions intensity
reporting? Relatedly, could such
reporting requirements support the
determination of equivalence of
methane monitoring, reporting and
verification measures for purposes of
European Union Regulation 2024/
1787? 8
Additionally, DOE seeks comment on
whether Appendix D adequately and
comprehensively considered the
impacts of LNG exports on the local
communities and regions where LNG
exports occur (i.e., communities where
LNG exports and LNG export-related
activities occur).9 Among other topics
related to Appendix D, DOE seeks
8 Regulation (EU) 2024/1787 of the European
Parliament and of the Council of 13 June 2024 on
the reduction of methane emissions in the energy
sector and amending Regulation (EU) 2019/942
(July 15, 2024).
9 For the purposes of these requests for comment,
communities of interest include the towns,
counties, parishes, boroughs, and other
municipalities or political subdivisions in or
around the geographic area where LNG exports
occur, particularly the Gulf Coast region.
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comment on whether Appendix D
adequately addressed:
• The economic profiles of the region,
or local communities within the region,
including changes over time.
• Employment related to LNG exports
in the region and in the U.S. more
generally, including employment
opportunities for local residents and/or
members of underserved or
disadvantaged communities in the
region related to LNG exports. What
barriers, if any, exist that limit or
prevent local residents in the region
from taking advantage of these
employment opportunities? What are
some of the ways LNG companies and
the businesses that support them have
enabled, or could enable, local residents
in the region to be a part of their
workforce, either directly or indirectly?
• The effects of LNG exports on other
local industries in the region, including,
but not limited to, fishing and tourism.
• The effects of LNG exports on
property values and/or housing costs
and availability in the region, and on
public finances in the region, including
tax revenue and/or additional spending
on public services.
• The effects that air emissions from
LNG exports (e.g., nitrogen dioxide,
particulate matter, volatile organic
compounds, and other hazardous air
pollutants) and other aspects of LNG
exports may have on public health in
the region, including physical and
mental health, and the cumulative
effects on regional public health of LNG
exports occurring alongside multiple
other industrial activities, including
refining and petrochemicals. How do
the effects of LNG exports compare with
effects from other industries as they
relate to regional public health?
• The effects of LNG exports on
regional quality of life, including effects
on traffic, noise levels, odors, visual
effects, community safety, and/or
neighborhood character.
• Whether local community members
in the region have opportunities to
engage with LNG exporters or agencies
with LNG regulatory responsibilities on
issues of concern.
DOE is aware of and has consulted
with a wide body of published scientific
literature regarding the effects of
upstream natural gas production and
midstream transportation of natural gas
on local communities in Appendix D;
however, given that LNG exports from
the United States are a recent
phenomenon, only a small amount of
published scientific literature exists
regarding the effects of LNG exports on
local communities. Accordingly, in
response to Appendix D, DOE seeks
comment in particular from members of
PO 00000
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those communities where LNG exports
occur.
Public Comment Procedures
In response to this Notice, any person
may file comments addressing the 2024
LNG Export Study. Comments may
include, among other things, data,
reports, studies, or personal testimony.
Comments submitted in compliance
with the procedures in this Notice will
be placed in the administrative record
for all of the above-referenced
proceedings and need only be submitted
once.
DOE is not establishing a new
proceeding or docket in this Notice.
Additionally, the submission of
comments in response to this Notice
will not make commenters parties to
any of the affected dockets. Persons
with an interest in the outcome of one
or more of the affected dockets have
been given an opportunity to intervene
in or protest those matters by complying
with the procedures established in the
notice of application issued in each
respective docket and published in the
Federal Register.10
Comments may be submitted using
one of the following methods:
(1) Submitting the comments using
the online form at https://
fossil.energy.gov/app/docketindex/
docket/index/30;
(2) Mailing the filing to the Office of
Regulation, Analysis, and Engagement
at the address listed in ADDRESSES
section; or
(3) Hand delivering the filing to the
Office of Regulation, Analysis, and
Engagement at the address listed in
ADDRESSES section.
10 Notices of application in the affected dockets
were published in the Federal Register as follows:
Venture Global Calcasieu Pass, LLC, Docket Nos.
13–69–LNG, 14–88–LNG, and 15–25–LNG
(Consolidated), 87 FR 1131 (Jan. 10, 2022); Venture
Global Plaquemines LNG, LLC, Docket No. 16–28–
LNG, 87 FR 29149 (May 12, 2022); Commonwealth
LNG, LLC, Docket No. 19–134–LNG, 84 FR 65144
(Nov. 26, 2019); Port Arthur LNG Phase II, LLC,
Docket No. 20–23–LNG, 85 FR 17568 (Mar. 30,
2020); Venture Global CP2 LNG, LLC, Docket No.
21–131–LNG, 87 FR 1133 (Jan. 10, 2022); New
Fortress Energy Louisiana FLNG LLC, Docket No.
22–39–LNG, 87 FR 29151 (May 12, 2022); Mexico
Pacific Limited LLC, FECM Docket No. 22–167–
LNG, 88 FR 6716 (Feb. 1, 2023); Gulfstream LNG
Development, LLC, Docket No. 23–34–LNG, 72 FR
23023 (Apr. 14, 2023); Corpus Christi Liquefaction,
LLC, CCL Midscale 8–9, LLC, Cheniere Marketing,
LLC, Docket No. 23–46–LNG, 88 FR 29662 (May 8,
2023); Lake Charles Exports, LLC, Docket No. 23–
87–LNG, 88 FR 60670 (Sept. 5, 2023); Southern
LNG Company, L.L.C., Docket No. 23–109–LNG, 88
FR 73008 (Oct. 24, 2023); Magnolia LNG, LLC,
Docket No. 23–137–LNG, 88 FR 88600 (Dec. 22,
2023); Sabine Pass Liquefaction, LLC and Sabine
Pass Stage V Liquefaction, LLC, Docket No. 24–27–
LNG, 89 FR 28762 (Apr. 19, 2024); Gato Negro
Permitium Dos, S.A.P.I. de C.V., Docket No. 24–87–
LNG, 89 FR 78294 (Sept. 25, 2024).
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For administrative efficiency, DOE/
FECM prefers comments to be filed
electronically using the online form
(method 1). All comments must include
a reference to the ‘‘2024 LNG Export
Study’’ in the title line. Comments must
be limited to the issues and potential
impacts addressed in the 2024 LNG
Export Study. DOE will review the
comments received on a consolidated
basis and may disregard comments that
are not germane. Reply comments will
not be accepted.
The record in the above-referenced
proceedings will include all comments
received in response to this Notice.
Additionally, all comments filed in
response to this Notice will be available
on the following DOE/FECM website:
https://fossil.energy.gov/app/
docketindex/docket/index/30.
The 2024 LNG Export Study is
available electronically at https://
fossil.energy.gov/app/docketindex/
docket/index/30 and for inspection and
copying in the Division of Natural Gas
Regulation docket room, Room 3E–042,
1000 Independence Avenue SW,
Washington, DC 20585. The docket
room is open between the hours of 8:00
a.m. and 4:30 p.m., Monday through
Friday, except Federal holidays.
Signing Authority
This document of the Department of
Energy was signed on December 16,
2024, by Bradford Crabtree, Assistant
Secretary, Office of Fossil Energy &
Carbon Management, pursuant to
delegated authority from the Secretary
of Energy. That document with the
original signature and date is
maintained by DOE. For administrative
purposes only, and in compliance with
requirements of the Office of the Federal
Register, the undersigned DOE Federal
Register Liaison Officer has been
authorized to sign and submit the
document in electronic format for
publication, as an official document of
the Department of Energy. This
administrative process in no way alters
the legal effect of this document upon
publication in the Federal Register.
ddrumheller on DSK120RN23PROD with NOTICES1
Signed in Washington, DC, on December
16, 2024.
Treena V. Garrett,
Federal Register Liaison Officer, U.S.
Department of Energy.
[FR Doc. 2024–30370 Filed 12–19–24; 8:45 am]
BILLING CODE 6450–01–P
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
Privacy Act of 1974; System of
Records
AGENCY:
U.S. Department of Energy.
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ACTION:
Notice of a modified system of
records.
As required by the Privacy
Act of 1974 and the Office of
Management and Budget (OMB)
Circulars A–108 and A–130, the
Department of Energy (DOE or the
Department) is publishing notice of a
modification to an existing Privacy Act
System of Records. DOE proposes to
amend System of Records DOE–31
Firearms Qualifications Records. This
System of Records Notice (SORN) is
being modified to align with new
formatting requirements, published by
OMB, and to ensure appropriate Privacy
Act coverage of business processes and
Privacy Act information.
DATES: This modified SORN will
become applicable following the end of
the public comment period on January
21, 2025 unless comments are received
that result in a contrary determination.
ADDRESSES: Written comments should
be sent to Ken Hunt, Chief Privacy
Officer, U.S. Department of Energy,
1000 Independence Avenue SW, Rm.
8H–085, Washington, DC 20585, by
facsimile at (202) 586–8151, or by email
at privacy@hq.doe.gov.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Ken
Hunt, Chief Privacy Officer, U.S.
Department of Energy, 1000
Independence Avenue SW, Rm. 8H–
085, Washington, DC 20585, by
facsimile at (202) 586–8151, by email at
privacy@hq.doe.gov, or by telephone at
(240) 686–9485.
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: On
January 9, 2009, DOE published a
Compilation of its Privacy Act Systems
of Records, which included System of
Records DOE–31 Firearms
Qualifications Records. This notice
proposes the following amendments:
National Nuclear Security
Administration (NNSA) Headquarters
has been added as a system location.
The following addresses have been
removed as system locations: NNSA
Naval Reactors Field Office in
Schenectady, New York; NNSA Nevada
Site Office in Las Vegas, Nevada;
Nonproliferation and National Security
Institute in Albuquerque, New Mexico;
Argonne National Laboratory-West in
Idaho Falls, Idaho; Brookhaven National
Laboratory in Upton, New York; and
Amarillo Site Office in Amarillo, Texas.
The following addresses have been
updated: NNSA John A. Gordon
Albuquerque Complex, NNSA Los
Alamos Site Office, Office of River
Protection, Richland Operations Office,
and both Office of Science locations. In
the ‘‘Routine Uses’’ section, this
modified notice deletes a previous
SUMMARY:
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104137
routine use concerning efforts
responding to a suspected or confirmed
loss of confidentiality of information as
it appears in DOE’s compilation of its
Privacy Act Systems of Records (January
9, 2009) and replaces it with one to
assist DOE with responding to a
suspected or confirmed breach of its
records of Personally Identifiable
Information (PII), modeled with
language from OMB’s Memorandum M–
17–12, ‘‘Preparing for and Responding
to a Breach of Personally Identifiable
Information’’ (January 3, 2017). Further,
this notice adds one new routine use to
ensure that DOE may assist another
agency or entity in responding to the
other agency’s or entity’s confirmed or
suspected breach of PII, as appropriate,
as aligned with OMB’s Memorandum
M–17–12. This notice deletes a
duplicative routine use about sharing
the records to a Federal, state, or local
agency in order to obtain information
relevant to a Departmental decision
concerning the hiring or retention of an
employee, the issuance of a security
clearance, the letting of a contract, or
the issuance of a license, grant or other
benefit. This routine use continues to be
recognized, singularly, as routine use
number two. An administrative change
required by the FOIA Improvement Act
of 2016 extends the length of time a
requestor is permitted to file an appeal
under the Privacy Act from 30 to 90
days. Both the ‘‘System Locations’’ and
‘‘Administrative, Technical and
Physical Safeguards’’ sections have been
modified to reflect the Department’s
usage of cloud-based services for
records storage. Language throughout
the SORN has been updated to align
with applicable Federal privacy laws,
policies, procedures, and best practices.
SYSTEM NAME AND NUMBER:
DOE–31 Firearms Qualification
Records.
SECURITY CLASSIFICATION:
Unclassified.
SYSTEM LOCATIONS:
Systems leveraging this SORN may
exist in multiple locations. All systems
storing records in a cloud-based server
are required to use governmentapproved cloud services and follow
National Institute of Standards and
Technology (NIST) security and privacy
standards for access and data retention.
Records maintained in a governmentapproved cloud server are accessed
through secure data centers in the
continental United States.
U.S. Department of Energy,
Headquarters, 1000 Independence
Avenue SW, Washington, DC 20585.
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Agencies
[Federal Register Volume 89, Number 245 (Friday, December 20, 2024)]
[Notices]
[Pages 104132-104137]
From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office [www.gpo.gov]
[FR Doc No: 2024-30370]
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
2024 LNG Export Study: Energy, Economic, and Environmental
Assessment of U.S. LNG Exports
Venture Global Calcasieu Pass, LLC [Docket No. 13-69-LNG, 14-88-
LNG, & 15-25-LNG]; Venture Global Plaquemines LNG, LLC [Docket No. 16-
28-LNG]; Commonwealth LNG, LLC [Docket No. 19-134-LNG]; Port Arthur LNG
Phase II, LLC [Docket No. 20-23-LNG]; Venture Global CP2 LNG, LLC
[Docket No. 21-131-LNG]; New Fortress Energy Louisiana FLNG LLC [Docket
No. 22-39-LNG]; Mexico Pacific Limited LLC [Docket No. 22-167-LNG];
Gulfstream LNG Development, LLC [Docket No. 23-34-LNG]; Corpus Christi
Liquefaction, LLC; CCL Midscale 8-9, LLC; and Cheniere Marketing, LLC
[Docket No. 23-46-LNG]; Lake Charles Exports, LLC [Docket No. 23-87-
LNG]; Southern LNG Company, L.L.C. [Docket No. 23-109-LNG]; Magnolia
LNG, LLC [Docket No. 23-137-LNG]; Sabine Pass Liquefaction, LLC and
Sabine Pass Liquefaction Stage V, LLC [Docket No. 24-27-LNG]; Gato
Negro Permitium Dos, S.A.P.I. de C.V. [Docket No. 24-87-LNG].
AGENCY: Office of Fossil Energy & Carbon Management, Department of
Energy.
ACTION: Notice of availability of the 2024 LNG Export Study and request
for comments.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
SUMMARY: The Office of Fossil Energy & Carbon Management (FECM) of the
Department of Energy (DOE) gives notice of availability of a multi-
volume study updating DOE's understanding of the potential effects of
U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports on the domestic economy; U.S.
households and consumers; communities that live near locations where
natural gas is produced or exported; domestic and international energy
security, including effects on U.S. trading partners; and the
environment and climate (Study or 2024 LNG Export Study). The Study is
composed of a summary report and four appendices containing three
coordinated modeled analyses and a qualitative literature review. The
Study materials are available on the DOE/FECM website at https://www.energy.gov/fecm/regulation. DOE intends to use the Study to inform
its public interest review of, and ultimately decisions in, certain
applications to export LNG to countries with which the United States
does not have a free trade agreement (FTA) requiring national treatment
for trade in natural gas and with which trade is not prohibited by U.S.
law or policy (non-FTA applications), including decisions in the above-
referenced proceedings and future proceedings, and for other purposes.
DOE invites the submission of comments regarding the Study. DOE does
not intend to revise the Study upon receipt of comments. Rather,
comments received will inform DOE's public interest determination in
each of the above-listed non-FTA application proceedings and future
non-FTA export proceedings. Comments submitted in compliance with the
instructions in this Notice will be placed in the administrative record
for all of the above-listed proceedings and need only be submitted
once.
DATES: Comments are to be filed pursuant to the procedures detailed in
the Public Comment Procedures section no later than 4:30 p.m., Eastern
time, February 18, 2025. DOE will not accept reply comments (i.e.,
comments responding to other commenter's comments).
ADDRESSES:
Electronic Filing of Comments Using Online Form (Strongly
encouraged): https://fossil.energy.gov/app/docketindex/docket/index/30.
Postal Mail, Hand Delivery, or Private Delivery Services (e.g.,
FedEx, UPS, etc.): U.S. Department of Energy (FE-
[[Page 104133]]
34), Office of Regulation, Analysis, and Engagement, Office of Fossil
Energy and Carbon Management, Forrestal Building, Room 3E-056, 1000
Independence Avenue SW, Washington, DC 20585.
Due to potential delays in DOE's receipt and processing of mail
sent through the U.S. Postal Service, we encourage respondents to
submit comments electronically to ensure timely receipt.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Ms. Beverly Howard, Docket Room
Manager, U.S. Department of Energy (FE-34), Office of Regulation,
Analysis, and Engagement, Office of Resource Sustainability, Office of
Fossil Energy and Carbon Management, Forrestal Building, Room 3E-042,
1000 Independence Avenue SW, Washington, DC 20585, (202) 586-9478,
[email protected].
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION:
Background
DOE is responsible for authorizing exports of domestically produced
natural gas, including LNG, to foreign countries under section 3 of the
Natural Gas Act (NGA), 15 U.S.C. 717b.\1\ Under the NGA, an application
to export domestically produced natural gas as LNG to countries that
have an FTA with the United States is deemed to be consistent with the
public interest by statute and must be granted without modification or
delay. As for an application to export domestically produced natural
gas, including LNG, to countries that have no FTA with the United
States, but with which trade is not prohibited by U.S. law or policy
(non-FTA countries), DOE must grant the application, unless it finds
that the proposed exportation will not be consistent with the public
interest.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\1\ The authority to regulate the imports and exports of natural
gas, including LNG, under section 3 of the NGA has been delegated to
the Assistant Secretary for FECM in Redelegation Order No. S4-DEL-
FE1-2023, issued on April 10, 2023.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Since 2012, to inform its public interest determination, DOE has
commissioned multiple studies to help assess the various facets of the
public interest that are affected by U.S. LNG exports, including how
different levels of LNG exports could impact the U.S. economy,
environmental and climate considerations, and energy security and
international considerations. DOE's most recent economic and
environmental analyses of U.S. LNG exports were published in 2018 and
2019, respectively. At that time, U.S. LNG exports were just getting
underway and U.S. export capacity was 4 billion cubic feet per day,
less than one-third of what it is today. Since then, both the world as
well as the global natural gas sector have changed significantly. The
purpose of the 2024 LNG Export Study is to provide an update to DOE's
prior analyses and understanding of how varying levels of U.S. LNG
exports impact and inform DOE's statutory public interest
determination.
2024 LNG Export Study
The Study comprises a summary report and four appendices.
First, Appendix A: Global Energy and Greenhouse Gas Implications of
U.S. LNG Exports presents an analysis of the global market demand for
U.S. LNG exports across a range of scenarios and the global emissions
impacts of increased U.S. LNG exports through 2050. The three defining
variables in the scenario design are (1) global climate policies and
policy ambition, (2) technology availability, and (3) U.S. LNG export
levels. This analysis uses the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM),
which is an integrated multisector model of global energy, economy,
agriculture, land use, water, and climate systems. DOE's Pacific
Northwest National Laboratory conducted the principal modeling work in
Appendix A.
Second, Appendix B: Domestic Energy, Economic, and Greenhouse Gas
Assessment of U.S. LNG Exports presents an analysis of the implications
of the various U.S. LNG export levels on the U.S. economy and
greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The analysis in Appendix B was
conducted using an updated and adapted version of the U.S. Energy
Information Administration's National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) and
Industrial Economics' Household Energy Impact Distribution Model.
OnLocation, Inc. and Industrial Economics, Incorporated performed the
principal modeling work in Appendix B.
Third, Appendix C: Consequential Greenhouse Gas Analysis of U.S.
LNG Exports is an analysis of global GHG emissions in response to
increased U.S. LNG Exports. DOE's National Energy Technology Laboratory
(NETL) performed the principal modeling work in Appendix C.
Finally, Appendix D: Addendum on Environmental and Community
Effects of U.S. LNG Exports is a literature review of the effects of
upstream, midstream, and downstream natural gas production and exports
on the environment and on local communities. This appendix summarizes
key findings from peer-reviewed scientific literature, as well as
publications from industry and non-governmental organizations. Staff in
DOE headquarters, with support from NETL, prepared the summary
information in Appendix D.
Appendices A, B, and C present scenarios that evaluate the impact
of different levels of U.S. LNG exports on global and domestic energy
systems. This Study does not attach probabilities to any of these
scenarios and is not intended to serve as a forecast of U.S. LNG
exports and associated impacts. Rather, the 2024 LNG Export Study
explores a range of conditions that rely on the described assumptions.
The primary reference for comparison in this Study is the level of U.S.
LNG exports as it moves from levels associated with facilities that are
operating or under construction pursuant to a final investment decision
(FID) as of December 2023 (referred to as Existing/FID Exports levels)
to levels determined by the global energy model (GCAM) in response to
policy and technology assumptions (referred to as Model Resolved
levels).
Key U.S. natural gas supply and economic impact findings include:
The price of natural gas at the Henry Hub in Louisiana, a
main trading hub for natural gas in the U.S., increases in scenarios
where the export level is Model Resolved (i.e., based on modeled global
demand and unconstrained U.S. LNG exports) when compared with Existing/
FID Exports.
--Across the Defined Policies with reference U.S. supply assumptions,
the 2050 Henry Hub natural gas price increases 31% in 2022 dollars
(from $3.53/MMBtu to $4.62/MMBtu), as U.S. LNG exports increase in
response to the modeled global demand level. The modeled price increase
is equivalent to about $0.03/MMBtu for every billion cubic feet/day
(Bcf/d) of increased LNG export above existing and FID levels.\2\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\2\ For comparison, Henry Hub prices in 2022 and 2023 were
$6.45/MMBtu and $2.53/MMBtu, respectively.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
--This study does not include forward-looking modeling on the impacts
of increasing LNG exports on natural gas price volatility. Given the
unique role of the U.S. as the largest global producer, consumer, and,
more recently, exporter of natural gas, there is uncertainty in how
rising export levels will affect the domestic market. While there has
not been a consistent relationship between domestic prices and export
levels to date, that could change as a larger percentage of U.S.
natural gas is exported. Current authorized export levels (over 48 Bcf/
d) are equivalent to approximately
[[Page 104134]]
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
45% of current U.S. natural gas production.
The impacts of increasing U.S. LNG exports on domestic
natural gas prices vary by region. Within the model, LNG export
facilities are assumed to be centered in the Gulf Coast region. While
gas is sourced from regions around the country, the Gulf Coast and
Southwest regions experience the greatest price impacts from increased
LNG exports in model projections.
Higher U.S. LNG export levels in 2050 are associated with
higher U.S. residential natural gas prices.
--In the Defined Policies scenarios, U.S. residential natural gas
prices are 4% higher in 2050 in 2022 dollars when the scenario assumes
Model Resolved levels of exports compared to Existing/FID Exports
levels.
--When sensitivity scenarios assume low U.S. natural gas supply, the
higher level of U.S. LNG exports under Model Resolved assumptions
compared to Existing/FID Exports assumptions results in 7% higher
residential gas prices in 2050. When the sensitivity scenarios assume
high U.S. natural gas supply, the higher level of U.S. LNG exports
results in 3% higher prices in 2050.
Under the Defined Policies scenario with the reference
U.S. supply assumption, the estimated annual energy expenditure impacts
of the increased 2050 natural gas prices across all socioeconomic
levels and census divisions are:
--Up to a $122.54 per year average increase for natural gas plus
electricity expenditures across all households, with average household
expenditure impacts up to 0.50% of average annual income and 3.4% of
natural gas and electricity bills,\3\ including:
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\3\ Due to regional differences, the per year average increase
for natural gas plus electricity is less than the sum of the per
year average increase for natural gas and electricity expenditures.
[ssquf] Up to a $46.52 per year average increase for natural gas
expenditures at natural gas households (households identified in the
National Energy Modeling System, or NEMS model, as using natural gas
for space heating), with an average natural gas household expenditure
impact of up to 0.24% of average annual income and 6.7% of average
natural gas bills; and
[ssquf] Up to a $118.37 per year average increase for electricity
expenditures across all households, with an average household
expenditure impact of up to 0.5% of average annual income and 3.5% of
average electricity bills.
--This analysis did not explore the impact of increased natural gas and
electricity prices on broader consumer and industrial goods, which
could have an additional impact on consumer expenditures.
NEMS includes granular detail about the energy system,
such as prices, and a separate macroeconomic module that provides
feedback on changes in the broader economy. One result of the model's
configuration is that increases in energy production in response to LNG
exports generally yield increases in gross domestic product (GDP) in
the modeling framework, but secondary effects (e.g., effects resulting
from changes in the price of consumer goods) may moderate this
relationship.\4\ As an example of this effect, in the Defined Policies
scenario with reference U.S. supply assumptions, increasing exports
from existing and FID levels to Model Resolved levels results in a 0.2%
increase in GDP in 2050 ($80 billion, 2022 dollars), and cumulatively
from 2020 to 2050, GDP increases $410 billion (2022 dollars discounted
at 3%). GDP is one of several measures of economic activity, and an
increase in GDP does not necessarily correlate with a positive effect
on broader public and consumer welfare.
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\4\ See Appendix B for further discussion of how NEMS models
GDP.
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Across all scenarios, modeled U.S. domestic natural gas
supply is sufficient to meet modeled global demand for U.S. LNG while
continuing to meet domestic demand. This result holds across
sensitivity scenarios on U.S. oil and gas supply.
Key energy security findings include:
The global market for LNG has been increasing for several
years, and LNG re- gasification and associated import infrastructure is
being built out globally, but future demand for natural gas and LNG is
uncertain and the demand centers are expected to shift.
DOE natural gas export authorizations do not include
destination restrictions beyond a prohibition to exporting to
sanctioned countries. Accordingly, U.S. LNG generally follows global
market demand.
--During the five years before Russia's invasion of Ukraine, from 2016
through 2021, South Korea, Japan, and China were the top three
importers of U.S. LNG, collectively importing 34% of U.S. exports,
while Europe imported 28%.
--From 2022 through 2023, that mix changed, with the share delivered to
Europe growing to more than 63% of total U.S. LNG exports, while
exports to Asia were reduced to over 24% of the total.
While Europe has been the primary destination for U.S. LNG
from 2016 to present, global demand and the destination of U.S. LNG in
the future are less certain.
--European policies aim to reduce the use of fossil fuels, including
natural gas. Demand for natural gas and LNG in Asia is expected to
increase in most scenarios.
--China has recently become the largest global importer of LNG and has
signed several contracts with operating or proposed U.S. LNG projects.
--China is expected to have the highest LNG imports of any country
across all scenarios in 2050.
--Countries' decarbonization policies and the availability of more
cost-competitive energy sources, such as coal and renewables, will
determine the outlook for U.S. LNG's role in the global energy market
and the energy transition.
Key GHG emission findings include:
The ultimate global GHG consequences of U.S. LNG exports
depend on market effects such as changes in energy demand and the
sources used to meet that demand for electricity and other uses of
natural gas. A consequential lifecycle analysis enables an examination
of how the availability of U.S. LNG may affect global energy
consumption, what types of energy U.S. LNG would displace, and the
resulting global greenhouse gas implications.\5\ When comparing Model
Resolved to Existing/FID scenarios, increased availability of U.S. LNG
from 23.7 Bcf/d to 56.3 Bcf/d in 2050 results in an additional 0.08% in
cumulative (2020-2050) global services and an increase of 711 million
metric tons (MMT) carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) or 0.05% in
cumulative global GHG emissions.\6\
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\5\ Past DOE and NETL life cycle studies of natural gas,
including LNG, have been attributional studies that estimate
emissions associated with units of natural gas, LNG, or other fuels
used to generate a megawatt-hour (MWh) of baseload electricity. A
consequential LCA accounts for the direct emissions from production,
delivery, and use of the U.S. exported natural gas and the indirect
emissions from changes in market behavior, such as substitution of
natural gas for other sources of energy or additional energy use.
The consequential GHG intensity calculated in this study is
therefore the total effect (direct and indirect market effects) of
U.S. LNG on global GHG emissions per unit of U.S. LNG exported.
\6\ Global services are defined as those products of the global
economy that provide services to consumers, such as energy,
commodities, fertilizers, etc.
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Attributional studies estimate direct emissions associated
with use of natural
[[Page 104135]]
gas, LNG, or other fuels used to generate electricity. These studies do
not directly consider market effects of the exported gas but are used
to compare the potential environmental profiles of alternatives.
Comparing Model Resolved to Existing/FID Exports levels in the Defined
Policies scenario, the direct life cycle GHG emissions from production,
export, and end use (assuming 100% combustion without carbon capture
and storage, or CCS) of increased U.S. LNG exports, before accounting
for market effects, would cumulatively (2020-2050) contribute 8,588 MMT
CO2e based on an attributional life cycle GHG profile of 76 g CO2e/
megajoule (MJ). In 2050, direct life cycle GHG emissions from all U.S.
LNG would be approximately 1,500 MMT CO2e before accounting for market
effects.
The additional GHG emissions per unit of additional U.S.
LNG exported, or the consequential GHG emissions intensity, varies by
scenario as shown in the table below.
Cumulative (2020-2050) Consequential GHG Intensities of U.S. LNG Exports
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cumulative (2020-2050) change in . . .
----------------------------------------------------- Cumulative
2050 U.S. LNG GHG emissions (MMT consequential
Comparison of scenarios Scenario exports (Exajoule U.S. LNG exports CO2e) [% increase Global GHG emissions
or EJ) [Bcf/d] \a\ (EJ) [% increase from existing/FID] services intensity (g
from existing/FID] \b\ (%) CO2e/MJ)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Existing/FID Exports to Model Defined Policies....... 20.3 [56.3] 113 [50%] 711 [0.05%] 0.08 6.3
Resolved.
Commitments (High CCS). 11.9 [33.1] 31 [14%] 97 [0.01%] 0.02 3.1
Commitments (Mod CCS).. 9.7 [26.8] 11 [5%] 67 [0.01%] 0.01 5.9
Net Zero (High CCS).... 10.3 [28.5] 17 [8%] 21 [0.002%] 0.01 1.2
Net Zero (Mod CCS) \c\. 6.2 [17.2] 0 NA NA NA
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
\a\ 2050 U.S. LNG export levels for Model Resolved scenarios.
\b\ Cumulative change in GHG emissions (2020-2050) are 1.2% higher than the GCAM results to align the upstream emission estimates with NETL estimates
that are used to explore upstream and liquefaction facility contributions to the consequential results (see Appendix C for additional details).
\c\ Net Zero (Mod CCS) U.S. LNG export levels do not change between the Existing/FID Exports to Model Resolved scenarios resulting in no change in
global emissions or services, the results are listed as ``NA'' or Not Applicable.
Across scenarios in which U.S. LNG exports are assumed to
exceed model-resolved levels (up to +20 Bcf/d by 2050, corresponding to
the High Exports assumption for U.S. LNG exports), global cumulative
GHG emissions (2020-2050) are 324 MMT CO2e to 1,452 MMT CO2e higher
than their counterparts with model-resolved levels of U.S. LNG exports.
With respect to cumulative consequential GHG emissions intensity, that
is equivalent to a range of 3.5 g CO2e/MJ to 12.6 CO2e/MJ for
additional U.S. LNG exports.
The increase in global GHG emissions between the Defined
Policies: Model Resolved and Defined Policies: Existing/FID scenarios
is estimated to result in a cumulative social cost of GHG (SC-GHG)
impact of $84 billion using a discount rate of 2.5%, $140 billion using
a discount rate of 2.0%, and $250 billion using a discount rate of 1.5%
(all in 2022$). The cumulative SC-GHG of the increase in global
emissions across the study scenarios ranges from $3 billion to $170
billion (2.5%) to $13 billion to $500 billion (1.5%) in 2022 dollars.
Key environmental and community effects findings include:
The production and transportation of natural gas in the
U.S., including natural gas for export, has energy, labor/workforce,
economic, environmental, and social justice implications, among others.
Production and upstream impacts
--Increased U.S. natural gas production increases upstream
environmental impacts, including on water, air, and land.
--Natural gas production and processing emits pollutants that are
harmful to human health.
--Researchers have found spatial and temporal (i.e., location and
timing) correlations between seismic events and the disposal of
produced water from oil and gas production through underground
injection into saltwater disposal wells in several states including
Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Colorado, Arkansas, and Ohio. Various means
are underway to reduce the impact, such as recycling produced water,
rather than disposing of it.
Community Effects
--Natural gas production and processing impacts upstream, midstream,
and downstream communities in harmful and beneficial ways. Additional
research is needed on the impact of LNG exportation on local
communities. In particular, in areas with existing heavy industry, the
cumulative impact of LNG exports has yet to be determined.
--From an economic perspective, natural gas production and the
development of natural gas export infrastructure tends to increase
employment and wages in regions and communities where it occurs, but
some evidence indicates that higher-wage jobs often go to people who
either move to the area or commute, rather than to long-term residents.
--Growth in oil and gas production brings new revenues to local
governments, but it can also bring additional burdens such as increased
emergency services and police, expansion of water and wastewater
infrastructure, and potential damage due to increased heavy road usage.
--Mineral rights owners receive royalties from oil and gas production,
though such recipients are not always local residents.
--Quality of life impacts from natural gas development include noise,
light pollution, dust, increased traffic, crime, and social disruptions
due to the cyclical nature of an industry oriented toward commodity
production.
The purpose of this Notice is to notify the public of the
availability of the 2024 LNG Export Study and to enter the Study into
the administrative record of the above listed non-FTA export
application proceedings.\7\ DOE invites comments on the Study and how
it may inform DOE's public interest analysis. DOE does not intend to
revise the 2024 Study upon receipt of comments. Instead, both the 2024
LNG Export Study, and the comments that DOE/FECM receives in response
to this Notice, will inform DOE's determination
[[Page 104136]]
of the public interest in each of the above listed non-FTA export
application proceedings and future non-FTA export application
proceedings.
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\7\ For the purpose of this Notice, DOE is including non-FTA
export application proceedings that are currently pending, where
either (i) the environmental review under the National Environmental
Protection Act (NEPA) led by other Federal agencies is underway or
complete, or (ii) the application involves an extra-territorial
proceeding where the NEPA review is led by DOE.
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Request for Comment
DOE welcomes comments related to how the Study should be applied to
DOE's public interest determinations going forward, as well as comments
on any aspects of the analyses and findings in 2024 Study.
In particular, DOE solicits comment on the methods and findings in
Appendix C. Appendix C provides a method of estimating the emissions
intensity and SC-GHG for individual U.S. LNG projects, and of
estimating a breakeven rate, which is the percent change difference
between an individual project's emissions intensity and the default
assumptions that would result in consequential GHG intensity of zero
for the project. DOE seeks comment on this method of estimating
project-specific emissions intensity and the breakeven rate. DOE seeks
comment on what existing or developing technologies would allow U.S.
LNG developers to achieve a breakeven rate, and how developers have
used these technologies to reduce emissions.
DOE also seeks comment on whether and how the 2024 Export Study
might support imposing LNG cargo or facility-level reporting
requirements or other conditions related to emissions on authorization
holders. To what extent do recent changes to the Environmental
Protection Agency's GHG reporting rules ease the incremental burden
that would be associated with facility-level or cargo-level emissions
intensity reporting? Relatedly, could such reporting requirements
support the determination of equivalence of methane monitoring,
reporting and verification measures for purposes of European Union
Regulation 2024/1787? \8\
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\8\ Regulation (EU) 2024/1787 of the European Parliament and of
the Council of 13 June 2024 on the reduction of methane emissions in
the energy sector and amending Regulation (EU) 2019/942 (July 15,
2024).
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Additionally, DOE seeks comment on whether Appendix D adequately
and comprehensively considered the impacts of LNG exports on the local
communities and regions where LNG exports occur (i.e., communities
where LNG exports and LNG export-related activities occur).\9\ Among
other topics related to Appendix D, DOE seeks comment on whether
Appendix D adequately addressed:
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\9\ For the purposes of these requests for comment, communities
of interest include the towns, counties, parishes, boroughs, and
other municipalities or political subdivisions in or around the
geographic area where LNG exports occur, particularly the Gulf Coast
region.
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The economic profiles of the region, or local communities
within the region, including changes over time.
Employment related to LNG exports in the region and in the
U.S. more generally, including employment opportunities for local
residents and/or members of underserved or disadvantaged communities in
the region related to LNG exports. What barriers, if any, exist that
limit or prevent local residents in the region from taking advantage of
these employment opportunities? What are some of the ways LNG companies
and the businesses that support them have enabled, or could enable,
local residents in the region to be a part of their workforce, either
directly or indirectly?
The effects of LNG exports on other local industries in
the region, including, but not limited to, fishing and tourism.
The effects of LNG exports on property values and/or
housing costs and availability in the region, and on public finances in
the region, including tax revenue and/or additional spending on public
services.
The effects that air emissions from LNG exports (e.g.,
nitrogen dioxide, particulate matter, volatile organic compounds, and
other hazardous air pollutants) and other aspects of LNG exports may
have on public health in the region, including physical and mental
health, and the cumulative effects on regional public health of LNG
exports occurring alongside multiple other industrial activities,
including refining and petrochemicals. How do the effects of LNG
exports compare with effects from other industries as they relate to
regional public health?
The effects of LNG exports on regional quality of life,
including effects on traffic, noise levels, odors, visual effects,
community safety, and/or neighborhood character.
Whether local community members in the region have
opportunities to engage with LNG exporters or agencies with LNG
regulatory responsibilities on issues of concern.
DOE is aware of and has consulted with a wide body of published
scientific literature regarding the effects of upstream natural gas
production and midstream transportation of natural gas on local
communities in Appendix D; however, given that LNG exports from the
United States are a recent phenomenon, only a small amount of published
scientific literature exists regarding the effects of LNG exports on
local communities. Accordingly, in response to Appendix D, DOE seeks
comment in particular from members of those communities where LNG
exports occur.
Public Comment Procedures
In response to this Notice, any person may file comments addressing
the 2024 LNG Export Study. Comments may include, among other things,
data, reports, studies, or personal testimony. Comments submitted in
compliance with the procedures in this Notice will be placed in the
administrative record for all of the above-referenced proceedings and
need only be submitted once.
DOE is not establishing a new proceeding or docket in this Notice.
Additionally, the submission of comments in response to this Notice
will not make commenters parties to any of the affected dockets.
Persons with an interest in the outcome of one or more of the affected
dockets have been given an opportunity to intervene in or protest those
matters by complying with the procedures established in the notice of
application issued in each respective docket and published in the
Federal Register.\10\
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\10\ Notices of application in the affected dockets were
published in the Federal Register as follows: Venture Global
Calcasieu Pass, LLC, Docket Nos. 13-69-LNG, 14-88-LNG, and 15-25-LNG
(Consolidated), 87 FR 1131 (Jan. 10, 2022); Venture Global
Plaquemines LNG, LLC, Docket No. 16-28-LNG, 87 FR 29149 (May 12,
2022); Commonwealth LNG, LLC, Docket No. 19-134-LNG, 84 FR 65144
(Nov. 26, 2019); Port Arthur LNG Phase II, LLC, Docket No. 20-23-
LNG, 85 FR 17568 (Mar. 30, 2020); Venture Global CP2 LNG, LLC,
Docket No. 21-131-LNG, 87 FR 1133 (Jan. 10, 2022); New Fortress
Energy Louisiana FLNG LLC, Docket No. 22-39-LNG, 87 FR 29151 (May
12, 2022); Mexico Pacific Limited LLC, FECM Docket No. 22-167-LNG,
88 FR 6716 (Feb. 1, 2023); Gulfstream LNG Development, LLC, Docket
No. 23-34-LNG, 72 FR 23023 (Apr. 14, 2023); Corpus Christi
Liquefaction, LLC, CCL Midscale 8-9, LLC, Cheniere Marketing, LLC,
Docket No. 23-46-LNG, 88 FR 29662 (May 8, 2023); Lake Charles
Exports, LLC, Docket No. 23-87-LNG, 88 FR 60670 (Sept. 5, 2023);
Southern LNG Company, L.L.C., Docket No. 23-109-LNG, 88 FR 73008
(Oct. 24, 2023); Magnolia LNG, LLC, Docket No. 23-137-LNG, 88 FR
88600 (Dec. 22, 2023); Sabine Pass Liquefaction, LLC and Sabine Pass
Stage V Liquefaction, LLC, Docket No. 24-27-LNG, 89 FR 28762 (Apr.
19, 2024); Gato Negro Permitium Dos, S.A.P.I. de C.V., Docket No.
24-87-LNG, 89 FR 78294 (Sept. 25, 2024).
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Comments may be submitted using one of the following methods:
(1) Submitting the comments using the online form at https://fossil.energy.gov/app/docketindex/docket/index/30;
(2) Mailing the filing to the Office of Regulation, Analysis, and
Engagement at the address listed in ADDRESSES section; or
(3) Hand delivering the filing to the Office of Regulation,
Analysis, and Engagement at the address listed in ADDRESSES section.
[[Page 104137]]
For administrative efficiency, DOE/FECM prefers comments to be
filed electronically using the online form (method 1). All comments
must include a reference to the ``2024 LNG Export Study'' in the title
line. Comments must be limited to the issues and potential impacts
addressed in the 2024 LNG Export Study. DOE will review the comments
received on a consolidated basis and may disregard comments that are
not germane. Reply comments will not be accepted.
The record in the above-referenced proceedings will include all
comments received in response to this Notice.
Additionally, all comments filed in response to this Notice will be
available on the following DOE/FECM website: https://fossil.energy.gov/app/docketindex/docket/index/30.
The 2024 LNG Export Study is available electronically at https://fossil.energy.gov/app/docketindex/docket/index/30 and for inspection
and copying in the Division of Natural Gas Regulation docket room, Room
3E-042, 1000 Independence Avenue SW, Washington, DC 20585. The docket
room is open between the hours of 8:00 a.m. and 4:30 p.m., Monday
through Friday, except Federal holidays.
Signing Authority
This document of the Department of Energy was signed on December
16, 2024, by Bradford Crabtree, Assistant Secretary, Office of Fossil
Energy & Carbon Management, pursuant to delegated authority from the
Secretary of Energy. That document with the original signature and date
is maintained by DOE. For administrative purposes only, and in
compliance with requirements of the Office of the Federal Register, the
undersigned DOE Federal Register Liaison Officer has been authorized to
sign and submit the document in electronic format for publication, as
an official document of the Department of Energy. This administrative
process in no way alters the legal effect of this document upon
publication in the Federal Register.
Signed in Washington, DC, on December 16, 2024.
Treena V. Garrett,
Federal Register Liaison Officer, U.S. Department of Energy.
[FR Doc. 2024-30370 Filed 12-19-24; 8:45 am]
BILLING CODE 6450-01-P