Update of Statistical Policy Directive No. 3: Compilation, Release, and Evaluation of Principal Federal Economic Indicators-Changing Timing of Public Comments by Employees of the Executive Branch, 11873-11878 [2024-02972]
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Federal Register / Vol. 89, No. 32 / Thursday, February 15, 2024 / Notices
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[FR Doc. 2024–03128 Filed 2–14–24; 8:45 am]
BILLING CODE 4510–26–P
OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND
BUDGET
Update of Statistical Policy Directive
No. 3: Compilation, Release, and
Evaluation of Principal Federal
Economic Indicators—Changing
Timing of Public Comments by
Employees of the Executive Branch
Office of Information and
Regulatory Affairs, Office of
Management and Budget, Executive
Office of the President.
ACTION: Notice of adoption of a revised
Statistical Policy Directive No. 3.
AGENCY:
The Office of Management
and Budget (OMB) announces the
adoption of a revised Statistical Policy
Directive No. 3: Compilation, Release,
and Evaluation of Principal Federal
Economic Indicators (Directive No. 3).
The procedures in Directive No. 3,
published in 1985, were designed to
ensure equitable, policy-neutral, and
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SUMMARY:
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timely release and dissemination of
Principal Federal Economic Indicators.
The goals of Directive No. 3 remain
sound; this Notice announces the
adoption of procedures consistent with
these goals to reflect advances in
communication technologies and
methods. OMB has solely modified the
provision, ‘‘employees of the Executive
Branch shall not comment publicly on
the data until at least one hour after the
official release time,’’ by replacing ‘‘one
hour’’ with ‘‘thirty minutes.’’ This
change reduces the delay after official
release time before commentary from
employees of the Executive Branch,
while retaining a necessary time delay
between policy-neutral release of the
official statistics and subsequent
Executive Branch interpretations of this
statistical data.
DATES: Effective Date: The effective date
of this Directive is February 19, 2024.
ADDRESSES: Please send correspondence
about OMB’s decision to Dominic
Mancini, Office of Management and
Budget, New Executive Office Building,
Washington, DC 20503, or email
Statistical_Directives@omb.eop.gov with
the subject ‘‘More Info: Directive No. 3.’’
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT:
Karin Orvis, Office of Management and
Budget, telephone 202-395-5989, email
Statistical_Directives@omb.eop.gov.
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION:
Summary: Under the Budget and
Accounting Procedures Act of 1950 (31
U.S.C. 1104(d)) and the Paperwork
Reduction Act of 1995 (44 U.S.C.
3504(e)) (the PRA), the Office of
Management and Budget (OMB)
announces a change of one provision
within Statistical Policy Directive No. 3:
Compilation, Release, and Evaluation of
Principal Federal Economic Indicators
(50 FR 38932, Sept. 25, 1985) (Directive
No. 3). In particular, OMB modifies the
provision in Directive No. 3,
‘‘employees of the Executive Branch
shall not comment publicly on the data
until at least one hour after the official
release time,’’ by replacing ‘‘one hour’’
with ‘‘thirty minutes.’’
Background: Directive No. 3’s
purposes are ‘‘to preserve the time
value’’ of the Principal Federal
Economic Indicators (PFEIs), ‘‘strike a
balance between timeliness and
accuracy,’’ ‘‘prevent early access to
information that may affect financial
and commodity markets,’’ and ‘‘preserve
the distinction between the policyneutral release of data by statistical
agencies and their interpretation by
policy officials.’’ Directive No. 3 also
provides for the periodic evaluation of
each indicator. Directive No. 3 remains
a robust, comprehensive source of
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11873
guidance for Federal statistical agencies
and recognized statistical units
producing PFEIs. The government and
private sector widely watch and heavily
rely upon these statistical series as
indicators of the current condition and
direction of the economy.
The procedures in Directive No. 3,
published in 1985, were designed to
ensure equitable, policy-neutral, and
timely release and dissemination of
PFEIs. The goals of Directive No. 3
remain sound, and OMB has not
changed them. In furtherance of these
goals, OMB retains a minimum time
period that Executive Branch employees
must wait after the policy-neutral
release of the data before Executive
Branch employees can comment on
those data.
In April 2019, OMB published in the
Federal Register a request for comments
on a proposal to reduce the duration of
the prohibition of commentary by
employees of the Executive Branch
following the PFEI release from one
hour to something shorter, including the
consideration of the option of having no
delay at all (84 FR 14682, Apr. 11,
2019). OMB received sixteen in-scope
comments in response to that Notice.
All in-scope commenters strongly
supported either a retention of the onehour delay, or a delay of some duration,
after official release time before
employees of the Executive Branch
could comment on the PFEI releases,
with no commenters in support of
removing the delay entirely.1
In August 2023, OMB published in
the Federal Register a request for public
comments on an updated proposal to
reduce the duration of the prohibition of
commentary by employees of the
Executive Branch following the PFEI
release from one hour to 30 minutes.
OMB noted that it agreed with the
previous comments on this issue
submitted in 2019 and understood that
maintaining some delay as part of
Directive No. 3 continues to be
important to maintain the bright line
between the release of data and any
commentary on such data by Executive
Branch officials. OMB noted that it was
considering this updated proposal
because, while the delay is important to
ensuring a bright line between the data
release and the Executive Branch’s
policy interpretation, since 1985 there
have been many changes in the way the
public communicates, as well as in how
the relevant statistical agencies
disseminate information. For example,
1 Public comments received in response to the
April 2019 FRN are available at
www.regulations.gov/document/OMB-2019-00010001/comment.
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in addition to more traditional means of
dissemination (e.g., newspaper or
radio), agencies now disseminate and
the public interacts with data releases
through the internet, including through
websites, social media platforms, and
other applications. These newer
dissemination platforms in particular
offer nearly instantaneous access to any
information supplied by the agencies
producing the PFEI data, including the
data releases. These platforms can also
offer direct attribution of the data to the
agencies that produce it; these agencies
are required to meet data quality
standards and are trusted to implement
those requirements. OMB noted that
these advances in the timing and
attribution of dissemination can
contribute to the ability of the public to
fully digest the data releases sooner than
when such dissemination methods were
not available.
In addition, OMB noted that the
public generally communicates and
interacts differently now than in 1985.
In particular, various platforms exist
now that allow the public to interact
seconds after a new data release comes
out. This means that for these PFEI data
releases, non-Executive Branch actors
are engaging in dialogue almost
immediately following the official
release time and can be offering
perspectives on the meaning of the data.
Under the 1985 Directive No. 3, this
dialogue lacks any Executive Branch
interpretation until at least one hour
after the data’s official release time.
OMB notes that discussion by nonExecutive Branch employees about the
PFEI data release starts immediately
following the release, and as such, by
the time 30 minutes has passed, a robust
discussion is already well underway. By
reducing the period to 30 minutes,
Executive Branch officials could enter
the dialogue earlier. OMB noted that it
believes that this change is likely to lead
to a more robust discussion without
compromising the underlying principles
of Directive No. 3, including the benefits
of having some time delay. OMB did not
consider any other alternatives in the
August 2023 proposal.
OMB sought comments from all
interested parties, including data users,
businesses, organizations, and the
media. OMB specifically solicited
comments from the public about the
proposal to change the delay from one
hour to 30 minutes, including whether
such a change could still meet the goals
of Directive No. 3 to ensure equitable,
policy-neutral, and timely release and
dissemination of PFEIs. OMB also
requested input on whether to maintain
the one-hour delay.
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More background and history on the
policies of Directive No. 3 can be found
in the August 2023 Federal Register
Notice (88 FR 58316), available at
https://www.federalregister.gov/
documents/2023/08/25/2023-18313/
statistical-policy-directive-no-3compilation-release-and-evaluation-ofprincipal-federal-economic, and April
2019 Federal Register Notice (84 FR
14682) (April 2019 FRN), available at
www.federalregister.gov/documents/
2019/04/11/2019-07172/statisticalpolicy-directive-no-3-compilationrelease-and-evaluation-of-principalfederal-economic.
Summary of Comments: OMB
received 12 public comments in
response to the August 2023 FRN. None
of the 12 public comments expressed
support for making the change from one
hour to 30 minutes. The public
comments raised different substantive
points for OMB to consider. All of the
public comments are viewable at
www.regulations.gov/document/OMB2023-0016-0001/comment.
Response to Comments:
OMB provides below responses to
these comments, grouped by substantive
points.
(1) Comment: There is a need to
provide evidence that consumers of
information will understand the
distinction between PFEI releases and
commentary from employees of the
Executive Branch.
Certain commenters encouraged OMB
to provide evidence that 30 minutes is
a sufficient period of time to ensure
understanding of the distinction
between PFEI releases and commentary
about those releases from employees of
the Executive Branch.2
OMB Response:
It is difficult to directly measure the
degree of public understanding
regarding the distinction between the
PFEI data releases and commentary
from employees of the Executive
Branch, and the potential effects on that
degree of understanding that could
result from reducing the time delay from
one hour to 30 minutes. As discussed
below, OMB reviewed existing literature
and a new analysis from the Council of
Economic Advisers (CEA) and
conducted some original analysis to
estimate the potential effects of the
change on market movements, news
stories, and social media dissemination
of such news. One commenter suggested
analyzing the timing and content of
social media posts to evaluate potential
impact. Given the difficulty of accessing
2 See, e.g., American Economic Association
Committee on Economic Statistics, Comment
#0009; Anonymous, Comment #0012.
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and analyzing that data, and taking into
account that the analysis would also not
be capable of directly estimating the
impact on public understanding, OMB
did not undertake this analysis. The
information available to OMB on both
market movements and the timing of
news stories does not provide evidence
that confusion about PFEI data releases
and commentary from employees of the
Executive Branch would be likely to
result from a reduction in the delay
period.
OMB reviewed analysis conducted by
CEA 3 on the response of market
participants to PFEI releases. The CEA
analysis and summary of other relevant
literature reviewed by OMB suggest that
markets absorb at least some of the PFEI
release information quickly, in most
cases within seconds of the release.
OMB also conducted some analysis of
news articles.4 OMB’s analysis suggests
that news stories are typically posted
well ahead of 30 minutes after the PFEI
release. OMB did not find any evidence
that a reduction in the delay for
Executive Branch commentary has the
potential to cause confusion.
(2) Comment: Shifting to a 30-minute
period before Executive Branch
employees can comment on PFEI
releases could lead to public concerns
about political interference or
manipulation of data or could reduce
public trust and confidence in the
Federal statistical system.
Some commenters noted that
Directive No. 3 was adopted, in part, to
address criticism of confusion resulting
from the simultaneous release of
statistical data and commentary from
Executive Branch employees.5 While
noting that social media and news
networks can now instantly broadcast
information to the public, these
commenters expressed concern that
narrowing the gap between the release
of official PFEI data from statistical
agencies and units and commentary
from Executive Branch employees
would lead to inferences of political
interference or manipulation of data.
Some commenters noted that
accusations of improper political
3 See Council of Econ. Advisers, The Timing of
Market Reactions to Data Releases, The White
House (Feb. 14, 2024), https://www.whitehouse.gov/
wp-content/uploads/2024/02/CEA-PFEIAnalysis.pdf.
4 See Off. of Mgmt. & Budget, The Timing of Press
Publications After High-Profile PFEI Data Releases,
The White House (Feb. 14, 2024), https://
www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/
OMB-PFEI-Press.pdf.
5 See, e.g., Bureau of Labor Statistics, Comment
#0007; American Statistical Association, Comment
#0006; Stefanie R. Schmidt, Comment #0004;
Michael Ravnitzky, Comment #0002, Anonymous,
Comment #0012.
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interference are regularly raised
immediately following the release of
PFEIs.6
Certain commenters expressed
concerns that a shift from a one-hour
period to a 30-minute period that must
elapse before Executive Branch
employees can comment on PFEI data
releases could erode public trust and
confidence in Federal statistics and
statistical agencies and units.7
Relatedly, some of these commenters
went on to express concerns that this
shift could thereby reduce response
rates to requests for information from
Federal statistical agencies and units.8
OMB Response: OMB agrees that the
failure to have a sufficient delay before
Executive Branch employees comment
on PFEI releases would be problematic
and could lead to conflation of the
statistical release and the commentary.
However, OMB believes the evidence
surveyed indicates that 30 minutes is a
sufficient time delay for markets, the
media, and members of the public to
distinguish between the data release and
commentary from Executive Branch
employees. Whatever delay may have
been necessitated by the state of
technology in 1985, when Directive No.
3 was issued, OMB believes that the
speed at which information is
disseminated today allows for 30
minutes to be sufficient for these
purposes. Conversely, OMB believes
that the available evidence would not
support a further reduction to a period
of less than 30 minutes, and that a
sufficient delay period remains critical
to fulfilling the goals of Directive No. 3.
OMB appreciates concerns that
changing the one-hour period before
employees of the Executive Branch can
comment publicly on PFEIs to a 30minute period could exacerbate the
distrust that gives rise to accusations of
improper political interference
immediately following the release of
PFEIs. However, OMB notes that
6 American Economic Association Committee on
Economic Statistics, Comment #0009 (citing Ben
Casselman, ‘‘No, the Jobs Report Wasn’t Rigged.
Here’s What Happened.,’’ The New York Times
(June 8, 2020), https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/
08/business/economy/jobs-report-data.html);
Population Association of America and Association
of Population Centers, Comment #0011; see also
Patricia Cohen, ‘‘How Economic Data is Kept
Politics-Free,’’ The New York Times (Nov. 3, 2016),
https://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/04/business/
economy/unemployment-labor-department-datapolitics.html.
7 See, e.g., American Statistical Association,
Comment #0006; National Association for Business
Economics, Comment #0008; Population
Association of America and Association of
Population Centers, Comment #0011; Stefanie R.
Schmidt, Comment #0004, Michael Ravnitzky,
Comment #0002, Anonymous, Comment #0010.
8 See, e.g., American Statistical Association,
Comment #0006; Erica L. Groshen, Comment #0003.
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prominent accusations of improper
political interference tend to either
immediately follow a surprising
release 9 or gain traction much later on
the basis of complicated technical
details in the underlying reports.10
Commenters provided no evidence that
Executive Branch employees’
commentary on PFEIs at the one-hour
mark prompted such accusations. Thus,
OMB does not believe that changing the
time until Executive Branch employees
can comment on PFEIs from one hour to
30 minutes would affect such
accusations.
Members of the Congress, governors
and other state elected officials,
associations affiliated with political
parties, candidates for political office,
and others all begin commenting on
PFEI releases in the minutes
immediately following the release of
PFEIs. As a result, public commentary
from employees of the Executive Branch
enters an already-saturated environment
whether it begins 30 minutes or one
hour after the PFEI release. OMB
believes that such commentary,
following others by a substantial gap in
time, is not confused with official data
releases. Thus, OMB believes that
Executive Branch employees entering
this dialogue sooner does not introduce
additional costs, but only a potential
public benefit from the quicker
participation of Executive Branch
employees in this dialogue.
Another factor contributing to clarity
is that Federal statistical agencies and
units generally communicate PFEI
releases directly, with links to official
reports, through their websites, social
media, email blasts, and other means
(such as interactive dissemination tools
and Application Programming Interfaces
or APIs). Each of the agencies producing
PFEIs post their releases on their official
websites and many also operate social
media accounts that post links to the
PFEI data releases within minutes of
their public availability, including the
National Agricultural Statistics
Service,11 Bureau of the Census,12
9 See, e.g., Joseph Plambeck, ‘‘From Jack Welch,
a Conspiracy Theory,’’ The New York Times (Oct.
5, 2012), https://archive.nytimes.com/
economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/05/from-jackwelch-a-conspiracy-theory/.
10 See, e.g., Ben Casselman, ‘‘No, the Jobs Report
Wasn’t Rigged. Here’s What Happened.,’’ The New
York Times (June 8, 2020), https://www.nytimes.
com/2020/06/08/business/economy/jobs-reportdata.html.
11 See, e.g., https://www.nass.usda.gov/
Publications/Reports_By_Date/index.php and
https://twitter.com/usda_nass.
12 See, e.g., https://www.census.gov/economicindicators/calendar-listview.html and https://
twitter.com/uscensusbureau.
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Bureau of Economic Analysis,13 Energy
Information Administration,14 Bureau of
Labor Statistics,15 and Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve
System.16 The social media accounts
have tens of thousands to millions of
followers, ensuring public access to
official PFEI data within moments of
each data release.
In addition, OMB is aware that there
have been unexpected and unforeseen
delays in the release of PFEI data before
(see more information below). Such
delays in the release of the PFEI data
can introduce confusion with the public
and Executive Branch employees about
when Executive Branch employees are
authorized to comment on PFEI data
release, and the delays themselves can
introduce perceptions of improper
influence with the PFEI data simply
because of the unknown reasons at the
time for the delays. When such delays
occur, the requirement still holds that
Executive Branch employees shall not
comment until at least 30 minutes after
the release of the PFEI data, not the
scheduled release time. However, in
these instances, making sure Executive
Branch employees are aware of the
delay and the updated time at which
they can comment is important to
ensure the commentary does not
precede the release of PFEI data. OMB
plans to work with statistical agencies
and units that produce PFEIs to ensure
that the CEA Chair is aware of any
significant delays in PFEI releases. The
CEA Chair, consistent with Directive
No. 3, plays an important role in
coordinating official responses to PFEI
releases, and can help to inform
Executive Branch employees of such
delays. All Executive Branch employees
that comment on PFEI releases have an
ongoing obligation to ensure that they
are in compliance with Directive No. 3,
including if necessary attending to the
effect of a delay in the release of a PFEI
before commenting on the data release.
For context, OMB is aware that short
delays (e.g., of less than two minutes) in
the release of PFEI data are common.
However, OMB is also aware that there
have been unexpected and unforeseen
longer delays in releasing the PFEI data.
Over the last 10 years, out of the over
3,700 PFEI data releases, OMB is aware
of five that occurred unexpectedly 30
minutes or more after the scheduled
release time (with the longest known
13 See, e.g., https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule
and https://twitter.com/BEA_News.
14 See, e.g., https://www.eia.gov/ and https://
twitter.com/EIAgov.
15 See, e.g., https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
and https://twitter.com/BLS_gov.
16 See, e.g., https://www.federalreserve.gov/
data.htm and https://twitter.com/federalreserve.
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unexpected delay being 2 hours). While
a problem, this is not a fundamentally
different problem regardless of whether
the period before employees of the
Executive Branch can comment on PFEI
data releases is one hour or 30 minutes.
OMB emphasizes that even in the event
of an unforeseen delay in the PFEI data
release the 30-minute period before
employees of the Executive Branch can
comment still applies. That is, the 30minute period starts after the release of
the PFEI data, not following the timing
of the intended release of the PFEI.
(3) Comment: In some cases, a shift
from a one-hour period to a 30-minute
period will result in Executive Branch
employees commenting before the stock
market opens.
One commenter argued that allowing
employees of the Executive Branch to
comment before the stock market
generally opens (in the 9:00–9:30 a.m.
ET period for PFEIs that are released at
8:30 a.m. ET) may confuse markets.17
OMB Response: Of the 35 PFEIs
designated by OMB, currently 15 have
release times at 8:30 a.m. ET.18 As noted
previously, data indicate that futures
markets may fully price PFEI data
releases quickly, with price jumps being
completed within minutes following the
release of several PFEIs. Conversely, one
of the advantages of data releases in the
pre-market opening period is that the
price effect can be fully integrated
before market opening. Conventional
wisdom holds that allowing important
news to be processed before markets
open allows for concentrated trading in
the first few minutes after market with
greater liquidity, given that market
makers generally unload inventory at
market close to avoid exposure to the
risk of overnight price shifts, and
shields ordinary investors from the
volatility of news integration in futures
markets.19 By allowing Executive
Branch employees to comment on PFEI
releases in the pre-market opening
period (for those PFEIs released at 8:30
a.m. ET), the market-moving effects of
such commentary, should such
commentary incidentally have any
market-moving effects, can be fully
priced in before market open.
Conversely, the current one-hour period
causes commentary to coincide with
market open. In this way, for those 15
PFEI releases that currently release
ahead of market open, shifting the
17 Anonymous,
Comment #0005.
other PFEI releases before the market
opens, at 9:15 a.m. ET. This means the 30-minute
period would occur after the market opens.
19 See, e.g., Lei Gao, Yufeng Han, Sophia Zhengzi
Li, and Guofu Zhou, ‘‘Market Intraday Momentum,’’
Journal of Financial Economics 129, no. 2 (2018):
394–414.
18 One
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period from one hour to 30 minutes
could be modestly beneficial.
(4) Comment: Shifting to a 30-minute
period before Executive Branch
employees can comment on PFEI
releases increases the likelihood of not
catching errors in PFEI releases.
One commenter raised concerns that
a shift from a one-hour to a 30-minute
period that must elapse before Executive
Branch employees can comment on
PFEI releases could increase the
likelihood of data errors or other forms
of miscommunication relating to PFEIs
as a result of less time for data
verification or clarification.20
OMB Response: OMB emphasizes that
this change does not affect any of the
error-checking work that precedes the
publication of PFEIs; it also does not
affect clarifications by authorized
agency personnel during the 30-minute
period before other Executive Branch
employees can comment on PFEI
releases. Given the evidence described
above that market activity may fully
price PFEI releases within seconds, as
discussed previously, there is no
evidence to suggest that subsequent data
correction or clarification is a
substantial concern. Further, Federal
statistical agencies and units work hard
to ensure that data releases are accurate
at the time of release. It is also not clear
why having Federal employees
comment on erroneous data before a
correction as noted is worse than
market, media, and other commentary
on that same erroneous data before
correction. The nature of correcting data
is that such reactions will need to be
revised, in the event that a correction
occurs.
(5) Comment: Shifting to a 30-minute
period before Executive Branch
employees can comment on PFEI
releases could cause confusion and lead
to more noncompliant early
commentary.
One comment stated that changing the
delay period before Executive Branch
employees can comment on PFEI
releases is likely to create confusion,
and lead to a greater number of
Executive Branch employees
commenting before the period has
elapsed. The commenter reasons that
this could occur if an employee is
traveling or working in a different time
zone or due to the effects of Daylight
Savings Time.21
OMB Response: OMB notes that there
is nothing inherently more confusing
from a compliance standpoint about a
30-minute delay than a one-hour delay.
Time zone differences and the effects of
20 Michael
21 Michael
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Ravnitzky, Comment #0002.
Frm 00068
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Daylight Savings Time could affect the
appropriate local time when an
Executive Branch employee is
authorized to speak regardless of
whether Directive No. 3 incorporated a
one-hour period or a 30-minute period.
As such, OMB does not believe that the
potential for confusion provides a basis
to prefer one period of time to another.
(6) Comment: Shifting to a 30-minute
period before Executive Branch
employees can comment on PFEI
releases would lead to wider predissemination release of PFEIs within
the Executive Branch.
One commenter expressed concern
that shifting the period during which
employees of the Executive Branch
cannot comment on PFEI releases from
one hour to 30 minutes after the release
would result in more Executive Branch
employees having pre-release access to
PFEI data, and in turn, increases the risk
of premature release of PFEI data.22
OMB Response: OMB clarifies that it
is not effectuating a change in the
composition of individuals with prerelease access to PFEIs. Directive No. 3
strictly limits the pre-release
dissemination of PFEI data and
enumerates specific conditions under
which the agency producing the PFEI
may grant others access to that
information. These portions of the
Directive are not being amended.
(7) Comment: Shifting to a 30-minute
period before Executive Branch
employees can comment on PFEI
releases would lead to less time for
Executive Branch employees to
coordinate a response to the data
release.
Certain commenters expressed
concern that shifting the period during
which employees of the Executive
Branch cannot comment on PFEI
releases from one hour to 30 minutes
would give Executive Branch employees
less time to coordinate a response to the
PFEI data prior to the expiration of this
period.23
OMB Response: The President,
through the CEA Chair, has access to the
PFEI data as soon as it is available in
advance of the publication of the PFEI,
providing for time for the Chair to
develop a response to the PFEI data.
Typically, the Chair receives the prerelease PFEI data the afternoon before
the scheduled release. OMB notes that
the 30-minute period is merely a floor
on how soon Executive Branch
employees can comment and should
22 American Statistical Association, Comment
#0006.
23 American Statistical Association, Comment
#0006; National Association for Business
Economics, Comment #0008.
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Federal Register / Vol. 89, No. 32 / Thursday, February 15, 2024 / Notices
additional discussion be necessary
before commenting after 30 minutes has
elapsed, employees can elect to
withhold commentary until such a time
as they are ready to comment.
OMB decision: After reviewing the
public comments, reviewing relevant
literature, and examining media and
market movements, OMB has
determined that any costs of shifting the
delay period from one hour to 30
minutes are outweighed by the benefits
discussed above.
*
*
*
*
*
The revised directive is published
below.
Richard L. Revesz,
Administrator, Office of Information and
Regulatory Affairs.
khammond on DSKJM1Z7X2PROD with NOTICES
Statistical Policy Directive No. 3
Compilation, Release, and Evaluation of
Principal Federal Economic Indicators
Statistical series that are widely
watched and heavily relied upon by
government and the private sector as
indicators of the current condition and
direction of the economy must meet
high standards of accuracy and
reliability. Because such data series
have significant commercial value, may
affect the movement of commodity and
financial markets, or may be taken as a
measure of the impact of government
policies, public release must be prompt
and according to an established,
publicly available schedule. The
purpose of the procedures outlined in
this directive is to assure that these data
series meet specific accuracy, release,
and accountability standards.
1. Designation of Principal Indicators.
The Administrator for Information and
Regulatory Affairs, Office of
Management and Budget, will
determine, after consultation with
interested Federal agencies, the data
series and estimates to be designated as
principal Federal economic indicators
and covered by this directive. The
Administrator will review the
designations annually.
2. Prompt Release. The interval
between the period to which the data or
estimates refer and the date when the
data or estimates are released to the
public shall be as short as practicable.
Agencies should compile and release
series that are issued quarterly or more
frequently within 22 working days of
the end of the reference period.
3. Release Schedule. The releasing
agency is responsible for ensuring that
the interested public is aware of the
release time and date. The last report of
each calendar year must contain the
time and date of all reports in the
upcoming year. In addition, each release
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will include an announcement of the
time and date of the next release. The
releasing agency shall provide a
schedule of releases for the upcoming
calendar year to the Statistical Policy
Office, Office of information and
Regulatory Affairs, by December 15.
Changes in the release schedule may
occur only if special, unforeseen
circumstances arise. The releasing
agency must announce and fully explain
any schedule changes as soon as it has
determined they are unavoidable.
There should be one office in the
agency that can provide the release
schedule of all the agency’s economic
indicators. The name, address, and
telephone number of this office should
be readily available to the public.
Agencies shall establish and maintain
one or two times of day for the release
of their principal economic indicators
and shall only release indicators at such
designated times.
4. Announcement of Changes.
Agencies shall announce any planned
change in data collection, analysis, or
estimation methods that may affect the
interpretation of a principal economic
indicator as far in advance of the change
as possible. The agency should include
the announcement in a regular report of
the economic indicator. When possible,
a period of public comment should be
provided between the announcement of
an intended change and its
implementation. At a minimum for
quarterly and monthly series, the agency
shall announce the change at least three
reports before the first report affected by
the change. For weekly and annual
series, the announcement should
precede the first report affected by the
change by at least three months. In the
first report affected by the change, the
agency should include a complete
description of the change and its
impact.
Agencies shall fully explain
unforeseeable changes due to special
circumstances as soon as they are
known and in the first report affected by
the change.
5. Release Procedure. The statistical
agency that produces each principal
economic indicator shall issue it in a
press release or other printed report.
The agency shall issue a press release
where this will significantly speed up
the dissemination of data to the public.
Each statistical agency shall be
responsible for establishing procedures
to assure that there is no premature
release of information or data estimates
during the time required for preparation
of the public report. This includes the
protection of public use data banks,
which shall not receive any data or
estimates until they are officially
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11877
released. As soon as copies of materials
for public release have been prepared,
the agency shall physically secure them.
Except for the authorized distribution
described in this section, agencies shall
ensure that no information or data
estimates are released before the official
release time.
The agency will provide prerelease
information to the President, through
the Chairman of the Council of
Economic Advisers, as soon as it is
available. The agency may grant others
prerelease access only under the
following conditions:
(a) The agency head must establish
whatever security arrangements are
necessary and impose whatever
conditions on the granting of access are
necessary to ensure that there is no
unauthorized dissemination or use.
(b) The agency head shall ensure that
any person granted access has been fully
informed of and agreed to these
conditions.
(c) Any prerelease of information
under an embargo shall not precede the
official release time by more than 30
minutes.
(d) In all cases, prerelease access shall
precede the official release time only to
the extent necessary for an orderly
review of the data.
All employees of the Executive
Branch who receive prerelease
distribution of information and data
estimates as authorized above are
responsible for assuring that there is no
release prior to the official release time.
Except for members of the staff of the
agency issuing the principal economic
indicator who have been designated by
the agency head to provide technical
explanations of the data, employees of
the Executive Branch shall not comment
publicly on the data until at least thirty
minutes after the official release time.
6. Preliminary Estimates and
Revisions. Deciding when to release a
principal economic indicator requires
the balancing of accuracy and
timeliness. Agencies should not
withhold information needed to
evaluate current economic conditions
by imposing unnecessarily stringent
accuracy requirements on preliminary
estimates. However, agencies shall use
the following guidelines when issuing
and evaluating preliminary data and
revisions:
(a) Agencies shall clearly identify
figures as preliminary or revised.
(b) Agencies shall only release routine
revisions of a principal economic
indicator as part of the regular reporting
schedule.
(c) If the difference between
preliminary and final aggregate figures
is large relative to average period-to-
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khammond on DSKJM1Z7X2PROD with NOTICES
11878
Federal Register / Vol. 89, No. 32 / Thursday, February 15, 2024 / Notices
period differences, the agency must
either take steps to improve the
accuracy of preliminary estimates or
delay the release of estimates until a
reliable estimate can be made.
(d) If preliminary estimates show
signs of a consistent bias (for example,
if revisions are consistently in the same
direction), the agency shall take steps to
correct this bias.
(e) Revisions occurring for routine
reasons, such as benchmarking and
updating of seasonality factors, shall be
consolidated and released
simultaneously.
(f) Revisions occurring for other than
routine reasons shall be fully explained
and shall be released as soon as
corrections can be completed.
7. Granting of Exceptions. Prior to
taking any action that may violate the
provisions of this directive, the head of
a releasing agency shall consult with the
Administrator for Information and
Regulatory Affairs. If the Administrator
determines that the action is in violation
of the provisions of this directive, the
head of the releasing agency may apply
for an exception. The Administrator
may authorize exceptions to the
provisions in sections 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6
of this Directive. Any agency requesting
an exception must demonstrate to the
satisfaction of the Administrator that the
proposed exception is necessary and is
consistent with the purposes of the
Directive.
8. Performance Evaluation. Each
agency that issues a principal Federal
economic indicator shall submit a
performance evaluation of that indicator
to the Statistical Policy Office, Office of
Information and Regulatory Affairs,
every three years. A schedule for the
performance evaluation of data series or
estimates designated as principal
Federal economic indicators will be
prepared by the Statistical Policy Office.
The evaluation shall address the
following issues:
(a) the accuracy and reliability of the
series, e.g., the magnitude and direction
of all revisions, the performance of the
series relative to established
benchmarks, and the proportion and
effect of nonresponses or responses
received after the publication of
preliminary estimates;
(b) the accuracy, completeness, and
accessibility of documentation
describing the methods used in
compiling and revising the indicator;
(c) the agency’s performance in
meeting the designated release schedule
and the prompt release objective of this
directive;
(d) the agency’s ability to avoid
disclosure prior to the scheduled release
time;
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18:36 Feb 14, 2024
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(e) any additional issues that the
Administrator for Information and
Regulatory Affairs specifies in writing to
the agency at least 6 months in advance
of the scheduled submission date.
The evaluation will be reviewed by
the Administrator to determine whether
the indicator is prepared and published
in conformity with all OMB statistical
policies, standards, and guidelines. A
summary of the year’s evaluations and
their reviews will be included in the
annual report to Congress required by
section 3514 of the Paperwork
Reduction Act of 1980 (Pub. L. 96–511).
[FR Doc. 2024–02972 Filed 2–14–24; 8:45 am]
BILLING CODE 3110–01–P
NATIONAL AERONAUTICS AND
SPACE ADMINISTRATION
[Notice: (24–010)]
NASA Astrophysics Advisory
Committee; Meeting
National Aeronautics and
Space Administration.
ACTION: Notice of meeting.
AGENCY:
In accordance with the
Federal Advisory Committee Act, the
National Aeronautics and Space
Administration (NASA) announces a
meeting of the Astrophysics Advisory
Committee. This Committee reports to
the Director, Astrophysics Division,
Science Mission Directorate, NASA
Headquarters. The meeting will be held
for the purpose of soliciting, from the
scientific community and other persons,
scientific and technical information
relevant to program planning.
DATES: Wednesday, March 20, 2024, 10
a.m.–5 p.m.; and Thursday, March 21,
2024, 9 a.m.–5 p.m., eastern time.
ADDRESSES: Meeting will be virtual. See
Webex information below.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Ms.
KarShelia Kinard, Science Mission
Directorate, NASA Headquarters,
Washington, DC 20546, (202) 358–2355
or karshelia.kinard@nasa.gov.
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: As noted
above, this meeting is virtual and will
take place by dial-in and via Webex.
Any interested person must use a touchtone phone to participate in this
meeting. The Webex connectivity
information for each day is provided
below. For audio, when you join the
Webex event, you may use your
computer or provide your phone
number to receive a call back,
otherwise, call the U.S. toll conference
number listed for each day.
For Wednesday, March 20, 2024, the
Webex information for attendees is:
SUMMARY:
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Fmt 4703
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https://nasaenterprise.webex.com/nasa
enterprise/j.php?MTID=mc1f44fac
9dc4ce77af2322c57b0f99d7. The
meeting number is: 2763 710 0487 and
the meeting password is: Apac032024#.
To join by telephone the numbers are,
1–929–251–9612 or 1–415–527–5035.
(Access Code: 2763 710 0487).
For Thursday, March 21, 2024, the
WebEx information for attendees is:
https://nasaenterprise.webex.com/nasa
enterprise/j.php?MTID=m6a50aa286
a1ef9beacb18c8092f540be. The meeting
number is: 2823 194 9794 and the
meeting password is: Apac032124#. To
join by telephone the numbers are 1–
929–251–9612 or 1–415–527–5035
(Access code: 2823 194 9794).
The agenda for the meeting includes
the following topics:
—Astrophysics Division Update
—Updates on Specific Astrophysics
Missions
—Discussion of Reports from the
Program Analysis Groups
The agenda will be posted on the
Astrophysics Advisory Committee web
page: https://beta.science.nasa.gov/
researchers/nac/science-advisorycommittees/apac/.
The public may submit and upvote
comments/questions ahead of the
meeting through the website: APAC
Spring Meeting—(3/19/2024)—NASA
(cnf.io), or https://nasa.cnf.io/sessions/
dxmy/#!/dashboard, that will be opened
for input on March 10, 2024.
It is imperative that the meeting be
held on these dates to accommodate the
scheduling priorities of the key
participants.
Patricia Rausch,
Advisory Committee Management Officer,
National Aeronautics and Space
Administration.
[FR Doc. 2024–03163 Filed 2–14–24; 8:45 am]
BILLING CODE P
NATIONAL AERONAUTICS AND
SPACE ADMINISTRATION
[Notice: (24–011)]
NASA Planetary Science Advisory
Committee; Meeting
National Aeronautics and
Space Administration.
ACTION: Notice of meeting.
AGENCY:
In accordance with the
Federal Advisory Committee Act, the
National Aeronautics and Space
Administration (NASA) announces a
meeting of the Planetary Science
Advisory Committee. The meeting will
be held for the purpose of soliciting,
from the scientific community and other
SUMMARY:
E:\FR\FM\15FEN1.SGM
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]]>Agencies
[Federal Register Volume 89, Number 32 (Thursday, February 15, 2024)]
[Notices]
[Pages 11873-11878]
From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office [www.gpo.gov]
[FR Doc No: 2024-02972]
=======================================================================
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET
Update of Statistical Policy Directive No. 3: Compilation,
Release, and Evaluation of Principal Federal Economic Indicators--
Changing Timing of Public Comments by Employees of the Executive Branch
AGENCY: Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs, Office of
Management and Budget, Executive Office of the President.
ACTION: Notice of adoption of a revised Statistical Policy Directive
No. 3.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
SUMMARY: The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) announces the
adoption of a revised Statistical Policy Directive No. 3: Compilation,
Release, and Evaluation of Principal Federal Economic Indicators
(Directive No. 3). The procedures in Directive No. 3, published in
1985, were designed to ensure equitable, policy-neutral, and timely
release and dissemination of Principal Federal Economic Indicators. The
goals of Directive No. 3 remain sound; this Notice announces the
adoption of procedures consistent with these goals to reflect advances
in communication technologies and methods. OMB has solely modified the
provision, ``employees of the Executive Branch shall not comment
publicly on the data until at least one hour after the official release
time,'' by replacing ``one hour'' with ``thirty minutes.'' This change
reduces the delay after official release time before commentary from
employees of the Executive Branch, while retaining a necessary time
delay between policy-neutral release of the official statistics and
subsequent Executive Branch interpretations of this statistical data.
DATES: Effective Date: The effective date of this Directive is February
19, 2024.
ADDRESSES: Please send correspondence about OMB's decision to Dominic
Mancini, Office of Management and Budget, New Executive Office
Building, Washington, DC 20503, or email
[email protected] with the subject ``More Info:
Directive No. 3.''
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Karin Orvis, Office of Management and
Budget, telephone 202-395-5989, email
[email protected].
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION:
Summary: Under the Budget and Accounting Procedures Act of 1950 (31
U.S.C. 1104(d)) and the Paperwork Reduction Act of 1995 (44 U.S.C.
3504(e)) (the PRA), the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) announces
a change of one provision within Statistical Policy Directive No. 3:
Compilation, Release, and Evaluation of Principal Federal Economic
Indicators (50 FR 38932, Sept. 25, 1985) (Directive No. 3). In
particular, OMB modifies the provision in Directive No. 3, ``employees
of the Executive Branch shall not comment publicly on the data until at
least one hour after the official release time,'' by replacing ``one
hour'' with ``thirty minutes.''
Background: Directive No. 3's purposes are ``to preserve the time
value'' of the Principal Federal Economic Indicators (PFEIs), ``strike
a balance between timeliness and accuracy,'' ``prevent early access to
information that may affect financial and commodity markets,'' and
``preserve the distinction between the policy-neutral release of data
by statistical agencies and their interpretation by policy officials.''
Directive No. 3 also provides for the periodic evaluation of each
indicator. Directive No. 3 remains a robust, comprehensive source of
guidance for Federal statistical agencies and recognized statistical
units producing PFEIs. The government and private sector widely watch
and heavily rely upon these statistical series as indicators of the
current condition and direction of the economy.
The procedures in Directive No. 3, published in 1985, were designed
to ensure equitable, policy-neutral, and timely release and
dissemination of PFEIs. The goals of Directive No. 3 remain sound, and
OMB has not changed them. In furtherance of these goals, OMB retains a
minimum time period that Executive Branch employees must wait after the
policy-neutral release of the data before Executive Branch employees
can comment on those data.
In April 2019, OMB published in the Federal Register a request for
comments on a proposal to reduce the duration of the prohibition of
commentary by employees of the Executive Branch following the PFEI
release from one hour to something shorter, including the consideration
of the option of having no delay at all (84 FR 14682, Apr. 11, 2019).
OMB received sixteen in-scope comments in response to that Notice. All
in-scope commenters strongly supported either a retention of the one-
hour delay, or a delay of some duration, after official release time
before employees of the Executive Branch could comment on the PFEI
releases, with no commenters in support of removing the delay
entirely.\1\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\1\ Public comments received in response to the April 2019 FRN
are available at www.regulations.gov/document/OMB-2019-0001-0001/comment.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
In August 2023, OMB published in the Federal Register a request for
public comments on an updated proposal to reduce the duration of the
prohibition of commentary by employees of the Executive Branch
following the PFEI release from one hour to 30 minutes. OMB noted that
it agreed with the previous comments on this issue submitted in 2019
and understood that maintaining some delay as part of Directive No. 3
continues to be important to maintain the bright line between the
release of data and any commentary on such data by Executive Branch
officials. OMB noted that it was considering this updated proposal
because, while the delay is important to ensuring a bright line between
the data release and the Executive Branch's policy interpretation,
since 1985 there have been many changes in the way the public
communicates, as well as in how the relevant statistical agencies
disseminate information. For example,
[[Page 11874]]
in addition to more traditional means of dissemination (e.g., newspaper
or radio), agencies now disseminate and the public interacts with data
releases through the internet, including through websites, social media
platforms, and other applications. These newer dissemination platforms
in particular offer nearly instantaneous access to any information
supplied by the agencies producing the PFEI data, including the data
releases. These platforms can also offer direct attribution of the data
to the agencies that produce it; these agencies are required to meet
data quality standards and are trusted to implement those requirements.
OMB noted that these advances in the timing and attribution of
dissemination can contribute to the ability of the public to fully
digest the data releases sooner than when such dissemination methods
were not available.
In addition, OMB noted that the public generally communicates and
interacts differently now than in 1985. In particular, various
platforms exist now that allow the public to interact seconds after a
new data release comes out. This means that for these PFEI data
releases, non-Executive Branch actors are engaging in dialogue almost
immediately following the official release time and can be offering
perspectives on the meaning of the data. Under the 1985 Directive No.
3, this dialogue lacks any Executive Branch interpretation until at
least one hour after the data's official release time. OMB notes that
discussion by non-Executive Branch employees about the PFEI data
release starts immediately following the release, and as such, by the
time 30 minutes has passed, a robust discussion is already well
underway. By reducing the period to 30 minutes, Executive Branch
officials could enter the dialogue earlier. OMB noted that it believes
that this change is likely to lead to a more robust discussion without
compromising the underlying principles of Directive No. 3, including
the benefits of having some time delay. OMB did not consider any other
alternatives in the August 2023 proposal.
OMB sought comments from all interested parties, including data
users, businesses, organizations, and the media. OMB specifically
solicited comments from the public about the proposal to change the
delay from one hour to 30 minutes, including whether such a change
could still meet the goals of Directive No. 3 to ensure equitable,
policy-neutral, and timely release and dissemination of PFEIs. OMB also
requested input on whether to maintain the one-hour delay.
More background and history on the policies of Directive No. 3 can
be found in the August 2023 Federal Register Notice (88 FR 58316),
available at https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2023/08/25/2023-18313/statistical-policy-directive-no-3-compilation-release-and-evaluation-of-principal-federal-economic, and April 2019 Federal
Register Notice (84 FR 14682) (April 2019 FRN), available at
www.federalregister.gov/documents/2019/04/11/2019-07172/statistical-policy-directive-no-3-compilation-release-and-evaluation-of-principal-federal-economic.
Summary of Comments: OMB received 12 public comments in response to
the August 2023 FRN. None of the 12 public comments expressed support
for making the change from one hour to 30 minutes. The public comments
raised different substantive points for OMB to consider. All of the
public comments are viewable at www.regulations.gov/document/OMB-2023-0016-0001/comment.
Response to Comments:
OMB provides below responses to these comments, grouped by
substantive points.
(1) Comment: There is a need to provide evidence that consumers of
information will understand the distinction between PFEI releases and
commentary from employees of the Executive Branch.
Certain commenters encouraged OMB to provide evidence that 30
minutes is a sufficient period of time to ensure understanding of the
distinction between PFEI releases and commentary about those releases
from employees of the Executive Branch.\2\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\2\ See, e.g., American Economic Association Committee on
Economic Statistics, Comment #0009; Anonymous, Comment #0012.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
OMB Response:
It is difficult to directly measure the degree of public
understanding regarding the distinction between the PFEI data releases
and commentary from employees of the Executive Branch, and the
potential effects on that degree of understanding that could result
from reducing the time delay from one hour to 30 minutes. As discussed
below, OMB reviewed existing literature and a new analysis from the
Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) and conducted some original analysis
to estimate the potential effects of the change on market movements,
news stories, and social media dissemination of such news. One
commenter suggested analyzing the timing and content of social media
posts to evaluate potential impact. Given the difficulty of accessing
and analyzing that data, and taking into account that the analysis
would also not be capable of directly estimating the impact on public
understanding, OMB did not undertake this analysis. The information
available to OMB on both market movements and the timing of news
stories does not provide evidence that confusion about PFEI data
releases and commentary from employees of the Executive Branch would be
likely to result from a reduction in the delay period.
OMB reviewed analysis conducted by CEA \3\ on the response of
market participants to PFEI releases. The CEA analysis and summary of
other relevant literature reviewed by OMB suggest that markets absorb
at least some of the PFEI release information quickly, in most cases
within seconds of the release.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\3\ See Council of Econ. Advisers, The Timing of Market
Reactions to Data Releases, The White House (Feb. 14, 2024), https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/CEA-PFEI-Analysis.pdf.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
OMB also conducted some analysis of news articles.\4\ OMB's
analysis suggests that news stories are typically posted well ahead of
30 minutes after the PFEI release. OMB did not find any evidence that a
reduction in the delay for Executive Branch commentary has the
potential to cause confusion.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\4\ See Off. of Mgmt. & Budget, The Timing of Press Publications
After High-Profile PFEI Data Releases, The White House (Feb. 14,
2024), https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/OMB-PFEI-Press.pdf.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
(2) Comment: Shifting to a 30-minute period before Executive Branch
employees can comment on PFEI releases could lead to public concerns
about political interference or manipulation of data or could reduce
public trust and confidence in the Federal statistical system.
Some commenters noted that Directive No. 3 was adopted, in part, to
address criticism of confusion resulting from the simultaneous release
of statistical data and commentary from Executive Branch employees.\5\
While noting that social media and news networks can now instantly
broadcast information to the public, these commenters expressed concern
that narrowing the gap between the release of official PFEI data from
statistical agencies and units and commentary from Executive Branch
employees would lead to inferences of political interference or
manipulation of data. Some commenters noted that accusations of
improper political
[[Page 11875]]
interference are regularly raised immediately following the release of
PFEIs.\6\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\5\ See, e.g., Bureau of Labor Statistics, Comment #0007;
American Statistical Association, Comment #0006; Stefanie R.
Schmidt, Comment #0004; Michael Ravnitzky, Comment #0002, Anonymous,
Comment #0012.
\6\ American Economic Association Committee on Economic
Statistics, Comment #0009 (citing Ben Casselman, ``No, the Jobs
Report Wasn't Rigged. Here's What Happened.,'' The New York Times
(June 8, 2020), https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/08/business/economy/jobs-report-data.html); Population Association of America and
Association of Population Centers, Comment #0011; see also Patricia
Cohen, ``How Economic Data is Kept Politics-Free,'' The New York
Times (Nov. 3, 2016), https://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/04/business/economy/unemployment-labor-department-data-politics.html.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Certain commenters expressed concerns that a shift from a one-hour
period to a 30-minute period that must elapse before Executive Branch
employees can comment on PFEI data releases could erode public trust
and confidence in Federal statistics and statistical agencies and
units.\7\ Relatedly, some of these commenters went on to express
concerns that this shift could thereby reduce response rates to
requests for information from Federal statistical agencies and
units.\8\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\7\ See, e.g., American Statistical Association, Comment #0006;
National Association for Business Economics, Comment #0008;
Population Association of America and Association of Population
Centers, Comment #0011; Stefanie R. Schmidt, Comment #0004, Michael
Ravnitzky, Comment #0002, Anonymous, Comment #0010.
\8\ See, e.g., American Statistical Association, Comment #0006;
Erica L. Groshen, Comment #0003.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
OMB Response: OMB agrees that the failure to have a sufficient
delay before Executive Branch employees comment on PFEI releases would
be problematic and could lead to conflation of the statistical release
and the commentary. However, OMB believes the evidence surveyed
indicates that 30 minutes is a sufficient time delay for markets, the
media, and members of the public to distinguish between the data
release and commentary from Executive Branch employees. Whatever delay
may have been necessitated by the state of technology in 1985, when
Directive No. 3 was issued, OMB believes that the speed at which
information is disseminated today allows for 30 minutes to be
sufficient for these purposes. Conversely, OMB believes that the
available evidence would not support a further reduction to a period of
less than 30 minutes, and that a sufficient delay period remains
critical to fulfilling the goals of Directive No. 3.
OMB appreciates concerns that changing the one-hour period before
employees of the Executive Branch can comment publicly on PFEIs to a
30-minute period could exacerbate the distrust that gives rise to
accusations of improper political interference immediately following
the release of PFEIs. However, OMB notes that prominent accusations of
improper political interference tend to either immediately follow a
surprising release \9\ or gain traction much later on the basis of
complicated technical details in the underlying reports.\10\ Commenters
provided no evidence that Executive Branch employees' commentary on
PFEIs at the one-hour mark prompted such accusations. Thus, OMB does
not believe that changing the time until Executive Branch employees can
comment on PFEIs from one hour to 30 minutes would affect such
accusations.
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\9\ See, e.g., Joseph Plambeck, ``From Jack Welch, a Conspiracy
Theory,'' The New York Times (Oct. 5, 2012), https://archive.nytimes.com/economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/05/from-jack-welch-a-conspiracy-theory/.
\10\ See, e.g., Ben Casselman, ``No, the Jobs Report Wasn't
Rigged. Here's What Happened.,'' The New York Times (June 8, 2020),
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/08/business/economy/jobs-report-data.html.
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Members of the Congress, governors and other state elected
officials, associations affiliated with political parties, candidates
for political office, and others all begin commenting on PFEI releases
in the minutes immediately following the release of PFEIs. As a result,
public commentary from employees of the Executive Branch enters an
already-saturated environment whether it begins 30 minutes or one hour
after the PFEI release. OMB believes that such commentary, following
others by a substantial gap in time, is not confused with official data
releases. Thus, OMB believes that Executive Branch employees entering
this dialogue sooner does not introduce additional costs, but only a
potential public benefit from the quicker participation of Executive
Branch employees in this dialogue.
Another factor contributing to clarity is that Federal statistical
agencies and units generally communicate PFEI releases directly, with
links to official reports, through their websites, social media, email
blasts, and other means (such as interactive dissemination tools and
Application Programming Interfaces or APIs). Each of the agencies
producing PFEIs post their releases on their official websites and many
also operate social media accounts that post links to the PFEI data
releases within minutes of their public availability, including the
National Agricultural Statistics Service,\11\ Bureau of the Census,\12\
Bureau of Economic Analysis,\13\ Energy Information Administration,\14\
Bureau of Labor Statistics,\15\ and Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System.\16\ The social media accounts have tens of thousands to
millions of followers, ensuring public access to official PFEI data
within moments of each data release.
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\11\ See, e.g., https://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/Reports_By_Date/index.php and https://twitter.com/usda_nass.
\12\ See, e.g., https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/calendar-listview.html and https://twitter.com/uscensusbureau.
\13\ See, e.g., https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule and https://twitter.com/BEA_News.
\14\ See, e.g., https://www.eia.gov/ and https://twitter.com/EIAgov.
\15\ See, e.g., https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm and https://twitter.com/BLS_gov.
\16\ See, e.g., https://www.federalreserve.gov/data.htm and
https://twitter.com/federalreserve.
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In addition, OMB is aware that there have been unexpected and
unforeseen delays in the release of PFEI data before (see more
information below). Such delays in the release of the PFEI data can
introduce confusion with the public and Executive Branch employees
about when Executive Branch employees are authorized to comment on PFEI
data release, and the delays themselves can introduce perceptions of
improper influence with the PFEI data simply because of the unknown
reasons at the time for the delays. When such delays occur, the
requirement still holds that Executive Branch employees shall not
comment until at least 30 minutes after the release of the PFEI data,
not the scheduled release time. However, in these instances, making
sure Executive Branch employees are aware of the delay and the updated
time at which they can comment is important to ensure the commentary
does not precede the release of PFEI data. OMB plans to work with
statistical agencies and units that produce PFEIs to ensure that the
CEA Chair is aware of any significant delays in PFEI releases. The CEA
Chair, consistent with Directive No. 3, plays an important role in
coordinating official responses to PFEI releases, and can help to
inform Executive Branch employees of such delays. All Executive Branch
employees that comment on PFEI releases have an ongoing obligation to
ensure that they are in compliance with Directive No. 3, including if
necessary attending to the effect of a delay in the release of a PFEI
before commenting on the data release.
For context, OMB is aware that short delays (e.g., of less than two
minutes) in the release of PFEI data are common. However, OMB is also
aware that there have been unexpected and unforeseen longer delays in
releasing the PFEI data. Over the last 10 years, out of the over 3,700
PFEI data releases, OMB is aware of five that occurred unexpectedly 30
minutes or more after the scheduled release time (with the longest
known
[[Page 11876]]
unexpected delay being 2 hours). While a problem, this is not a
fundamentally different problem regardless of whether the period before
employees of the Executive Branch can comment on PFEI data releases is
one hour or 30 minutes. OMB emphasizes that even in the event of an
unforeseen delay in the PFEI data release the 30-minute period before
employees of the Executive Branch can comment still applies. That is,
the 30-minute period starts after the release of the PFEI data, not
following the timing of the intended release of the PFEI.
(3) Comment: In some cases, a shift from a one-hour period to a 30-
minute period will result in Executive Branch employees commenting
before the stock market opens.
One commenter argued that allowing employees of the Executive
Branch to comment before the stock market generally opens (in the 9:00-
9:30 a.m. ET period for PFEIs that are released at 8:30 a.m. ET) may
confuse markets.\17\
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\17\ Anonymous, Comment #0005.
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OMB Response: Of the 35 PFEIs designated by OMB, currently 15 have
release times at 8:30 a.m. ET.\18\ As noted previously, data indicate
that futures markets may fully price PFEI data releases quickly, with
price jumps being completed within minutes following the release of
several PFEIs. Conversely, one of the advantages of data releases in
the pre-market opening period is that the price effect can be fully
integrated before market opening. Conventional wisdom holds that
allowing important news to be processed before markets open allows for
concentrated trading in the first few minutes after market with greater
liquidity, given that market makers generally unload inventory at
market close to avoid exposure to the risk of overnight price shifts,
and shields ordinary investors from the volatility of news integration
in futures markets.\19\ By allowing Executive Branch employees to
comment on PFEI releases in the pre-market opening period (for those
PFEIs released at 8:30 a.m. ET), the market-moving effects of such
commentary, should such commentary incidentally have any market-moving
effects, can be fully priced in before market open. Conversely, the
current one-hour period causes commentary to coincide with market open.
In this way, for those 15 PFEI releases that currently release ahead of
market open, shifting the period from one hour to 30 minutes could be
modestly beneficial.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\18\ One other PFEI releases before the market opens, at 9:15
a.m. ET. This means the 30-minute period would occur after the
market opens.
\19\ See, e.g., Lei Gao, Yufeng Han, Sophia Zhengzi Li, and
Guofu Zhou, ``Market Intraday Momentum,'' Journal of Financial
Economics 129, no. 2 (2018): 394-414.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
(4) Comment: Shifting to a 30-minute period before Executive Branch
employees can comment on PFEI releases increases the likelihood of not
catching errors in PFEI releases.
One commenter raised concerns that a shift from a one-hour to a 30-
minute period that must elapse before Executive Branch employees can
comment on PFEI releases could increase the likelihood of data errors
or other forms of miscommunication relating to PFEIs as a result of
less time for data verification or clarification.\20\
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\20\ Michael Ravnitzky, Comment #0002.
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OMB Response: OMB emphasizes that this change does not affect any
of the error-checking work that precedes the publication of PFEIs; it
also does not affect clarifications by authorized agency personnel
during the 30-minute period before other Executive Branch employees can
comment on PFEI releases. Given the evidence described above that
market activity may fully price PFEI releases within seconds, as
discussed previously, there is no evidence to suggest that subsequent
data correction or clarification is a substantial concern. Further,
Federal statistical agencies and units work hard to ensure that data
releases are accurate at the time of release. It is also not clear why
having Federal employees comment on erroneous data before a correction
as noted is worse than market, media, and other commentary on that same
erroneous data before correction. The nature of correcting data is that
such reactions will need to be revised, in the event that a correction
occurs.
(5) Comment: Shifting to a 30-minute period before Executive Branch
employees can comment on PFEI releases could cause confusion and lead
to more noncompliant early commentary.
One comment stated that changing the delay period before Executive
Branch employees can comment on PFEI releases is likely to create
confusion, and lead to a greater number of Executive Branch employees
commenting before the period has elapsed. The commenter reasons that
this could occur if an employee is traveling or working in a different
time zone or due to the effects of Daylight Savings Time.\21\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\21\ Michael Ravnitzky, Comment #0002.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
OMB Response: OMB notes that there is nothing inherently more
confusing from a compliance standpoint about a 30-minute delay than a
one-hour delay. Time zone differences and the effects of Daylight
Savings Time could affect the appropriate local time when an Executive
Branch employee is authorized to speak regardless of whether Directive
No. 3 incorporated a one-hour period or a 30-minute period. As such,
OMB does not believe that the potential for confusion provides a basis
to prefer one period of time to another.
(6) Comment: Shifting to a 30-minute period before Executive Branch
employees can comment on PFEI releases would lead to wider pre-
dissemination release of PFEIs within the Executive Branch.
One commenter expressed concern that shifting the period during
which employees of the Executive Branch cannot comment on PFEI releases
from one hour to 30 minutes after the release would result in more
Executive Branch employees having pre-release access to PFEI data, and
in turn, increases the risk of premature release of PFEI data.\22\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\22\ American Statistical Association, Comment #0006.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
OMB Response: OMB clarifies that it is not effectuating a change in
the composition of individuals with pre-release access to PFEIs.
Directive No. 3 strictly limits the pre-release dissemination of PFEI
data and enumerates specific conditions under which the agency
producing the PFEI may grant others access to that information. These
portions of the Directive are not being amended.
(7) Comment: Shifting to a 30-minute period before Executive Branch
employees can comment on PFEI releases would lead to less time for
Executive Branch employees to coordinate a response to the data
release.
Certain commenters expressed concern that shifting the period
during which employees of the Executive Branch cannot comment on PFEI
releases from one hour to 30 minutes would give Executive Branch
employees less time to coordinate a response to the PFEI data prior to
the expiration of this period.\23\
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\23\ American Statistical Association, Comment #0006; National
Association for Business Economics, Comment #0008.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
OMB Response: The President, through the CEA Chair, has access to
the PFEI data as soon as it is available in advance of the publication
of the PFEI, providing for time for the Chair to develop a response to
the PFEI data. Typically, the Chair receives the pre-release PFEI data
the afternoon before the scheduled release. OMB notes that the 30-
minute period is merely a floor on how soon Executive Branch employees
can comment and should
[[Page 11877]]
additional discussion be necessary before commenting after 30 minutes
has elapsed, employees can elect to withhold commentary until such a
time as they are ready to comment.
OMB decision: After reviewing the public comments, reviewing
relevant literature, and examining media and market movements, OMB has
determined that any costs of shifting the delay period from one hour to
30 minutes are outweighed by the benefits discussed above.
* * * * *
The revised directive is published below.
Richard L. Revesz,
Administrator, Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs.
Statistical Policy Directive No. 3
Compilation, Release, and Evaluation of Principal Federal Economic
Indicators
Statistical series that are widely watched and heavily relied upon
by government and the private sector as indicators of the current
condition and direction of the economy must meet high standards of
accuracy and reliability. Because such data series have significant
commercial value, may affect the movement of commodity and financial
markets, or may be taken as a measure of the impact of government
policies, public release must be prompt and according to an
established, publicly available schedule. The purpose of the procedures
outlined in this directive is to assure that these data series meet
specific accuracy, release, and accountability standards.
1. Designation of Principal Indicators. The Administrator for
Information and Regulatory Affairs, Office of Management and Budget,
will determine, after consultation with interested Federal agencies,
the data series and estimates to be designated as principal Federal
economic indicators and covered by this directive. The Administrator
will review the designations annually.
2. Prompt Release. The interval between the period to which the
data or estimates refer and the date when the data or estimates are
released to the public shall be as short as practicable. Agencies
should compile and release series that are issued quarterly or more
frequently within 22 working days of the end of the reference period.
3. Release Schedule. The releasing agency is responsible for
ensuring that the interested public is aware of the release time and
date. The last report of each calendar year must contain the time and
date of all reports in the upcoming year. In addition, each release
will include an announcement of the time and date of the next release.
The releasing agency shall provide a schedule of releases for the
upcoming calendar year to the Statistical Policy Office, Office of
information and Regulatory Affairs, by December 15. Changes in the
release schedule may occur only if special, unforeseen circumstances
arise. The releasing agency must announce and fully explain any
schedule changes as soon as it has determined they are unavoidable.
There should be one office in the agency that can provide the
release schedule of all the agency's economic indicators. The name,
address, and telephone number of this office should be readily
available to the public. Agencies shall establish and maintain one or
two times of day for the release of their principal economic indicators
and shall only release indicators at such designated times.
4. Announcement of Changes. Agencies shall announce any planned
change in data collection, analysis, or estimation methods that may
affect the interpretation of a principal economic indicator as far in
advance of the change as possible. The agency should include the
announcement in a regular report of the economic indicator. When
possible, a period of public comment should be provided between the
announcement of an intended change and its implementation. At a minimum
for quarterly and monthly series, the agency shall announce the change
at least three reports before the first report affected by the change.
For weekly and annual series, the announcement should precede the first
report affected by the change by at least three months. In the first
report affected by the change, the agency should include a complete
description of the change and its impact.
Agencies shall fully explain unforeseeable changes due to special
circumstances as soon as they are known and in the first report
affected by the change.
5. Release Procedure. The statistical agency that produces each
principal economic indicator shall issue it in a press release or other
printed report. The agency shall issue a press release where this will
significantly speed up the dissemination of data to the public.
Each statistical agency shall be responsible for establishing
procedures to assure that there is no premature release of information
or data estimates during the time required for preparation of the
public report. This includes the protection of public use data banks,
which shall not receive any data or estimates until they are officially
released. As soon as copies of materials for public release have been
prepared, the agency shall physically secure them.
Except for the authorized distribution described in this section,
agencies shall ensure that no information or data estimates are
released before the official release time.
The agency will provide prerelease information to the President,
through the Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, as soon as it
is available. The agency may grant others prerelease access only under
the following conditions:
(a) The agency head must establish whatever security arrangements
are necessary and impose whatever conditions on the granting of access
are necessary to ensure that there is no unauthorized dissemination or
use.
(b) The agency head shall ensure that any person granted access has
been fully informed of and agreed to these conditions.
(c) Any prerelease of information under an embargo shall not
precede the official release time by more than 30 minutes.
(d) In all cases, prerelease access shall precede the official
release time only to the extent necessary for an orderly review of the
data.
All employees of the Executive Branch who receive prerelease
distribution of information and data estimates as authorized above are
responsible for assuring that there is no release prior to the official
release time. Except for members of the staff of the agency issuing the
principal economic indicator who have been designated by the agency
head to provide technical explanations of the data, employees of the
Executive Branch shall not comment publicly on the data until at least
thirty minutes after the official release time.
6. Preliminary Estimates and Revisions. Deciding when to release a
principal economic indicator requires the balancing of accuracy and
timeliness. Agencies should not withhold information needed to evaluate
current economic conditions by imposing unnecessarily stringent
accuracy requirements on preliminary estimates. However, agencies shall
use the following guidelines when issuing and evaluating preliminary
data and revisions:
(a) Agencies shall clearly identify figures as preliminary or
revised.
(b) Agencies shall only release routine revisions of a principal
economic indicator as part of the regular reporting schedule.
(c) If the difference between preliminary and final aggregate
figures is large relative to average period-to-
[[Page 11878]]
period differences, the agency must either take steps to improve the
accuracy of preliminary estimates or delay the release of estimates
until a reliable estimate can be made.
(d) If preliminary estimates show signs of a consistent bias (for
example, if revisions are consistently in the same direction), the
agency shall take steps to correct this bias.
(e) Revisions occurring for routine reasons, such as benchmarking
and updating of seasonality factors, shall be consolidated and released
simultaneously.
(f) Revisions occurring for other than routine reasons shall be
fully explained and shall be released as soon as corrections can be
completed.
7. Granting of Exceptions. Prior to taking any action that may
violate the provisions of this directive, the head of a releasing
agency shall consult with the Administrator for Information and
Regulatory Affairs. If the Administrator determines that the action is
in violation of the provisions of this directive, the head of the
releasing agency may apply for an exception. The Administrator may
authorize exceptions to the provisions in sections 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 of
this Directive. Any agency requesting an exception must demonstrate to
the satisfaction of the Administrator that the proposed exception is
necessary and is consistent with the purposes of the Directive.
8. Performance Evaluation. Each agency that issues a principal
Federal economic indicator shall submit a performance evaluation of
that indicator to the Statistical Policy Office, Office of Information
and Regulatory Affairs, every three years. A schedule for the
performance evaluation of data series or estimates designated as
principal Federal economic indicators will be prepared by the
Statistical Policy Office. The evaluation shall address the following
issues:
(a) the accuracy and reliability of the series, e.g., the magnitude
and direction of all revisions, the performance of the series relative
to established benchmarks, and the proportion and effect of
nonresponses or responses received after the publication of preliminary
estimates;
(b) the accuracy, completeness, and accessibility of documentation
describing the methods used in compiling and revising the indicator;
(c) the agency's performance in meeting the designated release
schedule and the prompt release objective of this directive;
(d) the agency's ability to avoid disclosure prior to the scheduled
release time;
(e) any additional issues that the Administrator for Information
and Regulatory Affairs specifies in writing to the agency at least 6
months in advance of the scheduled submission date.
The evaluation will be reviewed by the Administrator to determine
whether the indicator is prepared and published in conformity with all
OMB statistical policies, standards, and guidelines. A summary of the
year's evaluations and their reviews will be included in the annual
report to Congress required by section 3514 of the Paperwork Reduction
Act of 1980 (Pub. L. 96-511).
[FR Doc. 2024-02972 Filed 2-14-24; 8:45 am]
BILLING CODE 3110-01-P
