Approval of Air Quality Implementation Plans; Vehicle Miles Traveled Emissions Offset Demonstrations for the 2015 Ozone Standards; California, 77774-77782 [2022-27511]
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Federal Register / Vol. 87, No. 243 / Tuesday, December 20, 2022 / Proposed Rules
and enforcement of environmental laws,
regulations, and policies.’’ The EPA
further defines the term fair treatment to
mean that ‘‘no group of people should
bear a disproportionate burden of
environmental harms and risks,
including those resulting from the
negative environmental consequences of
industrial, governmental, and
commercial operations or programs and
policies.’’ 23 For this proposed action,
the EPA conducted screening analyses
using the EJScreen (Version 2.1) tool.
We conducted the analyses for the
purpose of providing information to the
public, not as a basis of our proposed
action. The EJScreen analysis reports are
available in the docket for this
rulemaking. The EPA found, based on
the EJScreen analyses, that this
proposed action will not have
disproportionately high or adverse
human health or environmental effects
on communities with EJ concerns, as the
RFP is an accounting of ozone precursor
emission reductions throughout the 10county DFW nonattainment area.
IV. Supplemental Proposed Action
The EPA is supplementing our
October 2020 proposal addressing
revisions to the Texas SIP to meet the
RFP requirements for the DFW serious
nonattainment area for the 2008 ozone
NAAQS. In this supplemental proposal,
we are proposing to approve the
substitution of NOX emission reductions
for VOC emission reductions as
consistent with section 182(c)(2)(C) of
the CAA. The EPA is providing an
opportunity for public comment on this
supplemental proposal. However, we
are not reopening for comment our
October 2020 proposal. The EPA will
address all comments received on our
October 2020 proposal and on this
supplemental proposal in our final
action.
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V. Statutory and Executive Order
Reviews
Under the CAA, the Administrator is
required to approve a SIP submission
that complies with the provisions of the
Act and applicable Federal regulations.
42 U.S.C. 7410(k); 40 CFR 52.02(a).
Thus, in reviewing SIP submissions, the
EPA’s role is to approve state choices,
provided that they meet the criteria of
the CAA. Accordingly, this action
merely proposes to approve state law as
meeting Federal requirements and does
not impose additional requirements
beyond those imposed by state law. For
that reason, this action:
23 See https://www.epa.gov/environmentaljustice/
learn-about-environmental-justice.
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• Is not a ‘‘significant regulatory
action’’ subject to review by the Office
of Management and Budget under
Executive Orders 12866 (58 FR 51735,
October 4, 1993) and 13563 (76 FR 3821,
January 21, 2011);
• Does not impose an information
collection burden under the provisions
of the Paperwork Reduction Act (44
U.S.C. 3501 et seq.);
• Is certified as not having a
significant economic impact on a
substantial number of small entities
under the Regulatory Flexibility Act (5
U.S.C. 601 et seq.);
• Does not contain any unfunded
mandate or significantly or uniquely
affect small governments, as described
in the Unfunded Mandates Reform Act
of 1995 (Pub. L. 104–4);
• Does not have federalism
implications as specified in Executive
Order 13132 (64 FR 43255, August 10,
1999);
• Is not an economically significant
regulatory action based on health or
safety risks subject to Executive Order
13045 (62 FR 19885, April 23, 1997);
• Is not a significant regulatory action
subject to Executive Order 13211 (66 FR
28355, May 22, 2001);
• Is not subject to requirements of
section 12(d) of the National
Technology Transfer and Advancement
Act of 1995 (15 U.S.C. 272 note) because
application of those requirements would
be inconsistent with the CAA; and
• Does not provide EPA with the
discretionary authority to address, as
appropriate, disproportionate human
health or environmental effects, using
practicable and legally permissible
methods, under Executive Order 12898
(59 FR 7629, February 16, 1994).
In addition, the SIP is not approved
to apply on any Indian reservation land
or in any other area where EPA or an
Indian tribe has demonstrated that a
tribe has jurisdiction. In those areas of
Indian country, the proposed rule does
not have tribal implications and will not
impose substantial direct costs on tribal
governments or preempt tribal law as
specified by Executive Order 13175 (65
FR 67249, November 9, 2000).
List of Subjects in 40 CFR Part 52
Environmental protection, Air
pollution control, Incorporation by
reference, Nitrogen dioxide, Ozone,
Volatile organic compounds.
Authority: 42 U.S.C. 7401 et seq.
Dated: December 15, 2022.
Earthea Nance,
Regional Administrator, Region 6.
[FR Doc. 2022–27603 Filed 12–19–22; 8:45 am]
BILLING CODE 6560–50–P
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ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION
AGENCY
40 CFR Part 52
[EPA–R09–OAR–2022–0681; FRL–10386–
01–R9]
Approval of Air Quality Implementation
Plans; Vehicle Miles Traveled
Emissions Offset Demonstrations for
the 2015 Ozone Standards; California
Environmental Protection
Agency (EPA).
ACTION: Proposed rule.
AGENCY:
The Environmental Protection
Agency (EPA) is proposing to approve
revisions to the California state
implementation plan (SIP) concerning
vehicle miles traveled (VMT) offset
demonstrations for the Los Angeles—
South Coast Air Basin (South Coast),
Riverside County (Coachella Valley),
Los Angeles—San Bernardino Counties
(West Mojave Desert), and San Joaquin
Valley nonattainment areas (NAAs) for
the 2015 ozone national ambient air
quality standards (NAAQS). The EPA is
proposing to approve these revisions
because they demonstrate that
California has added or implemented
specific enforceable transportation
control strategies and transportation
control measures to offset the growth in
emissions from growth in VMT and
vehicle trips. We are proposing to
approve these revisions under the Clean
Air Act (CAA or ‘‘the Act’’), which
establishes VMT offset demonstration
requirements for ozone nonattainment
areas classified as ‘‘Severe’’ or
‘‘Extreme.’’
SUMMARY:
Written comments must arrive
on or before January 19, 2023.
ADDRESSES: Submit your comments,
identified by Docket ID No. EPA–R09–
OAR–2022–0681 at https://
www.regulations.gov. For comments
submitted at Regulations.gov, follow the
online instructions for submitting
comments. Once submitted, comments
cannot be edited or removed from
Regulations.gov. The EPA may publish
any comment received to its public
docket. Do not submit electronically any
information you consider to be
Confidential Business Information (CBI)
or other information whose disclosure is
restricted by statute. Multimedia
submissions (audio, video, etc.) must be
accompanied by a written comment.
The written comment is considered the
official comment and should include
discussion of all points you wish to
make. The EPA will generally not
consider comments or comment
contents located outside of the primary
DATES:
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submission (i.e., on the web, cloud, or
other file sharing system). For
additional submission methods, please
contact the person identified in the FOR
FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT section.
For the full EPA public comment policy,
information about CBI or multimedia
submissions, and general guidance on
making effective comments, please visit
https://www.epa.gov/dockets/
commenting-epa-dockets. If you need
assistance in a language other than
English or if you are a person with
disabilities who needs a reasonable
accommodation at no cost to you, please
contact the person identified in the FOR
FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT section.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Ben
Leers, Air Planning Office (AIR–2), EPA
Region IX, 75 Hawthorne Street, San
Francisco, CA 94105, (415) 947–4279 or
Leers.Ben@epa.gov.
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION:
Throughout this document, ‘‘we,’’ ‘‘us,’’
and ‘‘our’’ refer to the EPA.
Table of Contents
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I. Background
II. Summary and Analysis of the State’s
Submittals
III. Proposed Action
IV. Statutory and Executive Order Reviews
I. Background
On October 26, 2015, the EPA
promulgated a revised 8-hour ozone
NAAQS of 0.070 parts per million
(ppm).1 In accordance with section
107(d) of the CAA, the EPA must
designate an area ‘‘nonattainment’’ if it
is violating the NAAQS or if it is
contributing to a violation of the
NAAQS in a nearby area.
On June 4, 2018, the EPA designated
21 areas in California as nonattainment
for the 2015 ozone NAAQS. The
designations became effective on August
3, 2018.2 In its June 4, 2018 action, the
EPA also classified the 21
nonattainment areas in California,
including the South Coast and San
Joaquin Valley NAAs as Extreme
nonattainment and the Coachella Valley
and West Mojave Desert NAAs as Severe
nonattainment.
Within two years of designations,
section 182(d)(1)(A) of the CAA and 40
CFR 51.1302 require a state with an
ozone NAA classified as Severe or
Extreme for the 2015 ozone NAAQS to
submit a revision to the SIP that
addresses the VMT offset demonstration
requirement in the Act.3
1 80
FR 65292 (October 26, 2015).
FR 25776 (June 4, 2018).
3 CAA section 182(d)(1)(A) includes three
separate elements. In short, under section
182(d)(1)(A), states are required to adopt
transportation control strategies and measures to
2 83
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On July 27, 2020, the California Air
Resources Board (CARB) submitted a
staff report titled ‘‘70 ppb Ozone SIP
Submittal’’ (‘‘July 2020 submittal’’) to
the EPA.4 In part, the July 2020
submittal contains the VMT offset
demonstrations for the South Coast,
Coachella Valley, and San Joaquin
Valley NAAs.5 On December 28, 2020,
CARB submitted to the EPA a staff
report titled ‘‘West Mojave Desert VMT
Offset Demonstration’’ (‘‘December 2020
submittal’’) for the West Mojave Desert
NAA.6 In this action, we are evaluating
and proposing action on portions of the
July 2020 submittal that address the
South Coast, Coachella Valley, and San
Joaquin Valley VMT offset
demonstrations and the December 2020
submittal of the West Mojave Desert
VMT offset demonstration.
In California, CARB is the agency
responsible for the adoption and
submission to the EPA of California SIPs
and SIP revisions, and it has broad
authority to establish emissions
standards and other requirements for
mobile sources. Local and regional air
pollution control districts in California
are responsible for the regulation of
stationary sources and are generally
responsible for the development of
regional air quality plans. The South
Coast Air Quality Management District
develops and adopts air quality
management plans to address CAA
planning requirements applicable in the
South Coast and Coachella Valley
NAAs. The San Joaquin Valley Air
Pollution Control District develops and
adopts air quality management plans to
address CAA planning requirements
applicable in the San Joaquin Valley
NAA. The Antelope Valley Air Quality
Management District and the Mojave
Desert Air Quality Management District
offset growth in emissions from growth in VMT,
and, as necessary, in combination with other
emissions reduction requirements, to demonstrate
reasonable further progress and attainment. For
more information on the EPA’s interpretation of the
three elements of section 182(d)(1)(A), see 77 FR
58067, 58068 (September 19, 2012) (proposed
withdrawal of approval of South Coast VMT
emissions offset demonstrations). In this action, we
are only addressing the first element of CAA section
182(d)(1)(A), i.e., the VMT emissions offset
requirement.
4 Letter dated July 24, 2020, from Richard W.
Corey, Executive Officer, CARB, to John Busterud,
Regional Administrator, EPA Region IX (submitted
electronically July 27, 2020).
5 The July 2020 submittal also addresses base year
emissions inventory requirements for 18 of the 21
NAAs in California. The EPA approved the July
2020 submittal as meeting the base year emissions
inventory requirements for the 18 areas addressed
in the submittal on September 29, 2022 (87 FR
59015).
6 Letter dated December 28, 2020, from Richard
W. Corey, Executive Officer, CARB, to John
Busterud, Regional Administrator, EPA Region IX
(submitted electronically December 29, 2020).
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collectively develop and adopt air
quality management plans to address
CAA planning requirements applicable
in the West Mojave Desert. Such plans
are then submitted to CARB for
adoption and submittal to the EPA as
revisions to the California SIP.
A. The South Coast Ozone
Nonattainment Area
The South Coast nonattainment area
consists of Orange County, the
southwestern two-thirds of Los Angeles
County, a portion of southwestern San
Bernardino County, and western
Riverside County. The South Coast
nonattainment area encompasses an
area of approximately 6,600 square
miles and is bounded by the Pacific
Ocean to the west and the San Gabriel,
San Bernardino, and San Jacinto
mountains to the north and east.7 The
projected 2018 and 2030 populations of
the South Coast NAA are over 16
million and 18 million people,
respectively.8
B. The Coachella Valley 8-Hour Ozone
Nonattainment Area
The Coachella Valley NAA is located
within Riverside County, and its
boundaries generally align with the
Riverside County portion of the Salton
Sea Air Basin.9 The projected 2018 and
2030 populations of the Coachella
Valley NAA are 471,012 and 568,622,
respectively.10
C. The San Joaquin Valley Ozone
Nonattainment Area
The San Joaquin Valley NAA consists
of San Joaquin, Stanislaus, Merced,
Madera, Fresno, Tulare, and Kings
counties, and the western portion of
Kern County. The San Joaquin Valley
NAA stretches over 250 miles from
north to south, averages a width of 80
miles, and encompasses over 23,000
square miles. It is partially enclosed by
the Coast Mountain range to the west,
the Tehachapi Mountains to the south,
and the Sierra Nevada range to the
east.11 The population of the San
Joaquin Valley in 2015 was estimated to
be nearly 4.2 million people, and it is
7 For a precise definition of the boundaries of the
South Coast 2015 ozone nonattainment area, see 40
CFR 81.305.
8 South Coast Air Quality Management District,
‘‘2022 Draft Air Quality Management Plan,’’
Chapter 7, 7–2.
9 For a precise definition of the boundaries of the
Coachella Valley 2015 ozone nonattainment area,
see 40 CFR 81.305.
10 2022 Draft Air Quality Management Plan,
Chapter 7, 7–2.
11 For a precise definition of the boundaries of the
San Joaquin Valley 2015 ozone nonattainment area,
see 40 CFR 81.305.
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projected to increase to over 5.2 million
people in 2030.12
D. The West Mojave Desert Ozone
Nonattainment Area
The West Mojave Desert NAA consists
of northeast Los Angeles County and
portions of southwest and central San
Bernardino County.13 The population of
the West Mojave Desert NAA was
estimated at 868,380 in 2010.14
II. Summary and Analysis of the State’s
Submittals
A. Statutory and Regulatory
Requirements
CAA sections 110(a)(1) and 110(l) and
40 CFR 51.102 require states to provide
reasonable notice and an opportunity
for a public hearing prior to adoption of
SIP revisions. Section 110(k)(1)(B)
requires the EPA to determine whether
a SIP submittal is complete within 60
days of receipt. Any plan that the EPA
does not affirmatively determine to be
complete or incomplete will become
complete six months after the day of
submittal by operation of law. A finding
of completeness does not approve the
submittal as part of the SIP, nor does it
indicate that the submittal is
approvable. It does start a 12-month
clock for the EPA to act on the SIP
submittal.15
B. Summary of the State’s Submittals
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The July 2020 submittal documents
the public review process followed prior
to submittal to the EPA of the South
Coast, Coachella Valley, and San
Joaquin Valley VMT offset
demonstrations as revisions to the SIP.
In addition to the VMT offset
demonstrations, the July 2020 submittal
includes a copy of CARB’s notice for a
public meeting on June 25, 2020,16 a
transcript from the June 25, 2020
meeting,17 a signed resolution stating
12 The population estimates and projections
include all of Kern County, not just the portion of
Kern County within the jurisdiction of the
SJVAPCD. See San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution
Control District, ‘‘2016 Ozone Plan for 2008 8-Hour
Ozone Standard,’’ Adopted June 16, 2016, Chapter
1, Table 1–1.
13 For a precise definition of the boundaries of the
West Mojave Desert 2015 ozone nonattainment area,
see 40 CFR 81.305.
14 8-Hour Ozone (2008) Designated Area/State
Information, Green Book, EPA, accessed on
November 19, 2020, Population Data from 2010,
https://www3.epa.gov/airquality/greenbook/
hbtc.html.
15 See CAA section 110(k)(2).
16 ‘‘Notice of Public Meeting to Consider 70 Parts
Per Billion Ozone State Implementation Plan
Submittal,’’ California Air Resources Board, May
22, 2020.
17 ‘‘Videoconference Meeting, State of California,
Air Resources Board, CALEPA Headquarters, Byron
Sher Auditorium, Second Floor, 1001 I Street,
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that CARB provided at least 30 days for
public review prior to the board hearing
and that the VMT offset demonstrations
were adopted after adequate notice and
public hearing,18 and a compilation of
comments received by CARB prior to
and during the June 25, 2020 public
meeting.19
The December 2020 submittal
documents the public review process
followed prior to the submittal to the
EPA of the West Mojave Desert VMT
offset demonstration as a revision to the
SIP. In addition to the West Mojave
Desert VMT offset demonstration, the
December 2020 submittal includes a
copy of CARB’s notice for a public
meeting on October 22, 2020,20 a signed
resolution stating that CARB provided at
least 30 days for public review prior to
the board hearing and the West Mojave
Desert VMT offset demonstration was
adopted after adequate notice and
public hearing,21 and a comment
received by CARB prior to the October
22, 2020 public meeting.22
1. Stationary and Regulatory
Requirements
Section 182(d)(1)(A) of the Act
requires a state to submit, for each
ozone nonattainment area classified as
Severe or above, a SIP revision that
‘‘identifies and adopts specific
enforceable transportation control
strategies and transportation control
measures to offset any growth in
emissions from growth in vehicle miles
traveled or number of vehicle trips in
such area.’’ Herein, we refer to the
related SIP requirement as the ‘‘VMT
emissions offset requirement.’’ In
addition, we refer to the SIP revision
intended to demonstrate compliance
with the VMT emissions offset
requirement as the ‘‘VMT emissions
offset demonstration.’’
In Association of Irritated Residents v.
EPA, the Ninth Circuit ruled that
additional transportation control
Sacramento, California,’’ J&K Court Reporting, LLC,
June 25, 2020.
18 ‘‘70 Parts Per Billion Ozone State
Implementation Plan Submittal,’’ Resolution 20–17,
CARB, June 25, 2020.
19 Compilation of comments received for 70 Parts
Per Billion Ozone State Implementation Plan
Submittal. CARB indicated in its July 24, 2020
transmittal letter to the EPA that CARB has
considered all comments and has determined all are
non-substantive and do not pertain to the action.
20 ‘‘Notice of Public Meeting to Consider the West
Mojave Desert VMT Offset Demonstration,’’
California Air Resources Board, September 18,
2020.
21 ‘‘West Mojave Desert Vehicle Miles Traveled
Offset Demonstration,’’ Resolution 20–27, California
Air Resources Board, October 22, 2020.
22 CARB determined the comment to be nonsubstantive and did not pertain to the Board’s
action on the item. No comments were received
during the Board meeting.
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measures are required whenever vehicle
emissions are projected to be higher
than they would have been had VMT
not increased, even when aggregate
vehicle emissions are actually
decreasing.23 In response to the court’s
decision, in August 2012, the EPA
issued a memorandum titled
‘‘Implementing Clean Air Act Section
182(d)(1)(A): Transportation Control
Measures and Transportation Control
Strategies to Offset Growth in Emissions
Due to Growth in Vehicle Miles
Travelled’’ (‘‘August 2012 Guidance’’).24
The August 2012 Guidance discusses
the meaning of ‘‘transportation control
strategies’’ (TCS) and ‘‘transportation
control measures’’ (TCM) and
recommends that both TCSs and TCMs
be included in the calculations made for
the purpose of determining the degree to
which any hypothetical growth in
emissions due to growth in VMT should
be offset. Generally, TCS is a broad term
that encompasses many types of
controls (including, for example, motor
vehicle emissions limitations,
inspection and maintenance (I/M)
programs, alternative fuel programs,
other technology-based measures, and
TCMs) that would fit within the
regulatory definition of ‘‘control
strategy.’’ 25 A TCM is defined at 40 CFR
51.100(r) as ‘‘any measure that is
directed toward reducing emissions of
air pollutants from transportation
sources,’’ including, but not limited to,
those listed in section 108(f) of the CAA.
TCMs generally refer to programs
intended to reduce VMT, number of
vehicle trips, or traffic congestion, such
as programs for improved public transit,
designation of certain lanes for
passenger buses and high-occupancy
vehicles, and trip reduction ordinances.
The August 2012 Guidance explains
how states may demonstrate that the
VMT emissions offset requirement is
satisfied in conformance with the
Court’s ruling in Association of Irritated
Residents. Under the August 2012
Guidance, states are recommended to
develop one emissions inventory for the
base year and three different emissions
inventory scenarios for the attainment
year. For the attainment year, the state
would present three emissions
estimates, two of which would represent
23 See Association of Irritated Residents v. EPA,
632 F.3d. 584, at 596–597 (9th Cir. 2011), reprinted
as amended on January 27, 2012, 686 F.3d 668,
further amended February 13, 2012 (‘‘Association of
Irritated Residents’’).
24 Memorandum dated August 30, 2012, Karl
Simon, Director, Transportation and Climate
Division, Office of Transportation and Air Quality,
to Carl Edland, Director, Multimedia Planning and
Permitting Division, EPA Region 6, and Deborah
Jordan, Director, Air Division, EPA Region 9.
25 See, e.g., 40 CFR 51.100(n).
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hypothetical emissions scenarios that
would provide the basis to identify the
‘‘growth in emissions’’ due solely to the
growth in VMT, and one that would
represent projected actual motor vehicle
emissions after fully accounting for
projected VMT growth and offsetting
emissions reductions obtained by all
creditable TCSs and TCMs. See the
August 2012 Guidance for specific
details on how states might conduct the
calculations.
The base year on-road volatile organic
compound (VOC) emissions should be
calculated using VMT in that year, and
they should reflect all enforceable TCSs
and TCMs in place in the base year.
This would include vehicle emissions
standards, state and local control
programs, such as I/M programs or fuel
rules, and any additional implemented
TCSs and TCMs that were already
required by or credited in the SIP as of
that base year.
The first of the emissions calculations
for the attainment year is based on the
projected VMT and trips for that year
and assume that no new TCSs or TCMs
beyond those already credited in the
base year inventory have been added or
implemented since the base year. This
calculation demonstrates how emissions
would hypothetically change if no new
TCSs or TCMs were added or
implemented, and VMT and trips were
allowed to grow at the projected rate
from the base year. This estimate shows
the potential for an increase in
emissions due solely to growth in VMT
and trips, representing a ‘‘no action’’
scenario. Attainment year emissions in
this scenario may be lower than those in
the base year due to the fleet that was
on the road in the base year gradually
being replaced through fleet turnover;
however, provided that VMT and/or
numbers of vehicle trips would in fact
increase by the attainment year,
emissions would still likely be higher
than they would have been assuming
VMT had held constant.
The second of the attainment year’s
emissions calculations assumes that no
new TCSs or TCMs beyond those
already credited have been added or
implemented since the base year, but it
also assumes no growth in VMT and
trips between the base year and
attainment year. This estimate reflects
the hypothetical emissions level that
would have occurred if no further TCMs
or TCSs had been added or
implemented and if VMT and trip levels
had held constant since the base year.
Like the ‘‘no action’’ attainment year
estimate described above, emissions in
the attainment year may be lower than
those in the base year due to the fleet
that was on the road in the base year
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gradually being replaced by cleaner
vehicles through fleet turnover, but in
this case, they would not be influenced
by any growth in VMT or trips. This
emissions estimate reflects a ceiling on
the attainment emissions that should be
allowed to occur under the statute as
interpreted by the court in Association
of Irritated Residents because it shows
what would happen under a scenario in
which no offsetting TCSs or TCMs have
yet been added or implemented, and
VMT and trips are held constant during
the period from the area’s base year to
its attainment year. This represents a
‘‘VMT offset ceiling’’ scenario. These
two hypothetical status quo estimates
are necessary to identify the target level
of emissions from which states would
determine whether further TCMs or
TCSs, beyond those that have been
adopted and implemented in reality,
would need to be adopted and
implemented in order to fully offset any
increase in emissions due solely to VMT
and trips identified in the ‘‘no action’’
scenario.
Finally, the third attainment year
emissions estimate represents the
emissions that are actually expected to
occur in the area’s attainment year after
taking into account reductions from all
enforceable TCSs and TCMs. This
estimate is based on the VMT and trip
levels expected to occur in the
attainment year (i.e., the VMT and trip
levels from the first estimate) and all of
the TCSs and TCMs expected to be in
place and for which the SIP will take
credit in the area’s attainment year,
including any TCMs and TCSs added or
implemented since the base year. This
represents the ‘‘projected actual’’
attainment year scenario. If this
emissions estimate is less than or equal
to the emissions ceiling that was
established in the second of the
attainment year calculations, the TCSs
and TCMs for the attainment year would
be sufficient to fully offset the identified
hypothetical growth in emissions.
If, instead, the estimated projected
actual attainment year emissions are
still greater than the ceiling that was
established in the second of the
attainment year emissions calculations,
even after accounting for post-baseline
year TCSs and TCMs, the state would
need to adopt and implement additional
TCSs or TCMs to further offset the
growth in emissions. The additional
TCSs or TCMs would need to bring the
actual emissions down to at least the
VMT offset ceiling estimated in the
second of the attainment year
calculations, to meet the VMT offset
requirement of section 182(d)(1)(A) as
interpreted by the Court.
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2. Summary of State’s Submission
CARB prepared the VMT emissions
offset demonstrations for the South
Coast, Coachella Valley, San Joaquin
Valley, and West Mojave Desert for the
2015 ozone NAAQS, and they are
documented in the July 2020 and
December 2020 submittals. In addition
to the VMT emissions offset
demonstrations, the submittals include
attachments listing TCSs adopted by
CARB since 1990,26 TCMs developed by
the Southern California Association of
Governments (SCAG),27 the
metropolitan planning organization
(MPO) for the South Coast, Coachella
Valley, and West Mojave Desert
NAAs,28 and TCMs developed by the
eight MPOs 29 in the San Joaquin Valley
NAA.30
For the VMT emissions offset
demonstrations, CARB used
EMFAC2017, the latest EPA-approved
motor vehicle emissions model for
California available at the time the four
VMT offset demonstrations were
developed.31 The EMFAC2017 model
estimates the on-road emissions from
two combustion processes (i.e., running
exhaust and start exhaust) and four
evaporative processes (i.e., hot soak,
running losses, diurnal losses, and
resting losses). The EMFAC2017 model
combines trip-based VMT data from the
regional transportation planning agency
(e.g., SCAG), vehicle start data based on
household travel surveys, and vehicle
population data from the California
Department of Motor Vehicles. These
sets of data are combined with
corresponding emissions rates to
calculate emissions.
Emissions from running exhaust, start
exhaust, hot soak, and running losses
are a function of how much a vehicle is
26 See attachments B–1 in the July 2020 submittal
and A–1 in the December 2020 submittal.
27 SCAG is the metropolitan planning
organization for the South Coast NAA and
surrounding areas. The SCAG region also includes
the West Mojave Desert NAA and encompasses six
counties (Imperial, Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside,
San Bernardino, and Ventura) and 191 cities in an
area covering more than 38,000 square miles.
28 See attachments B–2 in the July 2020 submittal
and A–2 in the December 2020 submittal.
29 The following eight MPOs represent the eight
counties in the San Joaquin Valley nonattainment
area: The San Joaquin Council of Governments, the
Stanislaus Council of Governments, the Merced
County Association of Governments, the Madera
County Transportation Commission, The Council of
Fresno County Governments, The Kings County
Association of Governments, the Tulare County
Association of Governments, and the Kern Council
of Governments.
30 See attachment B–2 in the July 2020 submittal.
31 On August 15, 2019, the EPA approved and
announced the availability of EMFAC2017, the
latest update to the EMFAC model for use by State
and local governments to meet CAA requirements.
See 84 FR 41717 (August 15, 2019).
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driven. Emissions from these processes
are thus directly related to VMT and
vehicle trips, and CARB included these
emissions in the calculations that
provide the basis for four VMT
emissions offset demonstrations
addressed in this proposed action.
CARB did not include emissions from
resting loss and diurnal loss processes
in the analysis because such emissions
are related to vehicle population, not to
VMT or vehicle trips, and thus are not
part of ‘‘any growth in emissions from
growth in vehicle miles traveled or
numbers of vehicle trips in such area’’
under CAA section 182(d)(1)(A).
The VMT emissions offset
demonstrations in the July 2020 and
December 2020 submittals use a 2017
base year. The base year for VMT
emissions offset demonstration
purposes should generally be the same
base year used for nonattainment
planning purposes. On September 29,
2022, the EPA approved the 2017 base
year inventories for 18 ozone NAAs in
California, including South Coast,
Coachella Valley, San Joaquin Valley,
and West Mojave Desert, for the
purposes of the 2015 ozone NAAQS,
and thus, CARB’s selection of 2017 is
appropriate as the base year for the VMT
emissions offset demonstrations for the
2015 ozone NAAQS in the July 2020
and December 2020 submittals.32
The VMT emissions offset
demonstrations also include the three
different attainment year scenarios (i.e.,
no action, VMT offset ceiling, and
projected actual) described in section
II.B.1 of this notice. On July 5, 2022,
CARB provided additional technical
information in support of the attainment
year inventories used to derive the three
different attainment year scenarios in
the VMT offset demonstrations.33 On
August 16, 2020, CARB provided
additional technical clarification
regarding vehicle populations, VMT,
and vehicle starts (i.e., trips) in the
attainment scenarios. Because mileage
accrual rates vary between gasoline and
electric vehicles, the vehicle
populations and starts vary among the
attainment year scenarios. VMT accrual
for gasoline vehicles is slightly higher
than electric vehicles before model year
(MY) 2025; because CARB anticipates
that battery range will increase over
time, CARB assumes that VMT accrual
per year for electric vehicles will equal
that of gasoline vehicles in MY 2025
and later. Further, other factors such as
spatial allocation and fuel matching
characteristics of the EMFAC model
influence the vehicle population
estimates. Therefore, different
populations of gasoline and electric
vehicles (and, consequently, different
total populations and numbers of starts)
may correspond to the same VMT.34
The EPA has reviewed the supporting
technical information used to calculate
the 2032 attainment year scenarios for
Coachella Valley and West Mojave
Desert Severe nonattainment areas and
the 2037 attainment year scenarios for
South Coast and San Joaquin Valley
Extreme nonattainment areas. We
reviewed the VMT, vehicle population,
and vehicle trip data input to
EMFAC2017 and compared modeled
emissions reductions to the reductions
expected from measures implemented
after the base year. Based on our review,
we propose to find the information to be
adequate for use in the VMT offset
demonstrations. We propose to find
acceptable CARB’s selection of year
2032 as the attainment year for the
Coachella Valley and West Mojave
Desert VMT emissions offset
demonstrations and 2037 as the
attainment year for the South Coast and
San Joaquin Valley VMT emissions
offset demonstrations for the 2015 ozone
NAAQS.
(a) South Coast
Table 1 summarizes the relevant
distinguishing parameters for each of
the emissions scenarios and shows
CARB’s corresponding VOC emissions
estimates in tons per day (tpd) for the
South Coast VMT offset demonstration
for the 2015 ozone NAAQS.
TABLE 1—VMT EMISSIONS OFFSET INVENTORY SCENARIOS AND RESULTS FOR SOUTH COAST FOR THE 2015 OZONE
NAAQS
VMT
(1,000/day)
Scenario
Base Year (2017) ........................................................................................................................
No Action (2037); no new measures, with VMT growth .............................................................
VMT Offset Ceiling (2037); no new measures, no VMT growth .................................................
Projected Actual (2037); new measures included, with VMT growth .........................................
395,571
407,368
395,571
407,368
Starts
(1,000/day)
48,172
61,173
59,997
59,869
VOC
emissions
(tpd)
75
40
36
29
lotter on DSK11XQN23PROD with PROPOSALS1
Source: July 2020 submittal, Tables 1 and 2, p. 25–26. Starts data provided in attachment (‘‘South Coast VMT Offset—2019 FSTIP—February
27 2020_USEPA.xlsx’’) in email dated July 5, 2022, from Nesamani Kalandiyur (CARB) to John Ungvarsky (EPA Region IX).
For the base year scenario, CARB ran
the EMFAC2017 model for the 2017
base year using VMT and starts data
corresponding to that year. As shown in
Table 1, CARB estimates the South
Coast VOC emissions at 75 tpd in 2017.
For the no action scenario, CARB first
identified the on-road motor vehicle
control programs (i.e., TCSs or TCMs)
added or implemented since the base
year and incorporated into EMFAC2017.
CARB then ran EMFAC2017 with the
VMT and starts data corresponding to
32 87
FR 59015.
further clarified the additional technical
information in supplementary emails dated August
33 CARB
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the 2037 attainment year without the
emissions reductions from the on-road
motor vehicle control programs added
or implemented after the base year.
Thus, the no action scenario reflects the
hypothetical VOC emissions in the
attainment year if CARB had not added
or implemented any additional TCSs or
TCMs after 2017. As shown in Table 1,
CARB estimates the no action South
Coast VOC emissions at 40 tpd in 2037.
For the VMT offset ceiling scenario,
CARB ran the EMFAC2017 model for
the 2037 attainment year but with VMT
and starts data corresponding to the
2017 base year. Like the no action
scenario, the EMFAC2017 model was
adjusted to reflect the VOC emissions
levels in the attainment year without the
benefits of the post-base-year on-road
motor vehicle control programs. Thus,
the VMT offset ceiling scenario reflects
hypothetical VOC emissions in the
South Coast if CARB had not added or
implemented any TCSs or TCMs after
the base year and if there had been no
11 and 16, 2022, from Nesamani Kalandiyur (CARB)
to John Ungvarsky (EPA Region IX) regarding VMT
offset demonstrations.
34 See email dated August 16, 2022, from
Nesamani Kalandiyur (CARB) and Karina O’Connor
(EPA Region IX) to John Ungvarsky (EPA Region IX)
regarding VMT offset demonstrations.
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growth in VMT or vehicle trips between
the base year and the attainment year.
The hypothetical growth in emissions
due to growth in VMT and trips can be
determined from the difference between
the VOC emissions estimates under the
no action and VMT offset ceiling
scenarios. Based on the values in Table
1, the hypothetical growth in emissions
due to growth in VMT and trips in the
South Coast would have been 4 tpd (i.e.,
40 tpd minus 36 tpd). This hypothetical
difference establishes the level of VMT
growth-caused emissions that need to be
offset by the combination of postbaseline year TCSs and TCMs and any
necessary additional TCSs and TCMs.
For the projected actual scenario
calculation, CARB ran the EMFAC2017
model for the attainment year with VMT
and starts data at attainment year values
and with the full benefits of the relevant
post-baseline year motor vehicle control
programs. For this scenario, CARB
included the emissions benefits from
TCSs and TCMs added or implemented
since the base year. Significant VOC
emissions reductions during the 2017–
2037 timeframe result from the zero
emission vehicle provisions of the
Advanced Clean Cars program.35
As shown in Table 1, the projected
actual attainment year VOC emissions
are 29 tpd. CARB compared this value
against the corresponding VMT offset
ceiling value to determine whether
additional TCSs or TCMs would need to
be adopted and implemented in order to
offset any increase in emissions due
solely to VMT and trips. Because the
77779
projected actual emissions do not
exceed the corresponding VMT offset
ceiling emissions, CARB concluded that
the demonstration shows compliance
with the VMT emissions offset
requirement and that the adopted TCSs
and TCMs are sufficient to offset the
growth in emissions from the growth in
VMT and vehicle trips in the South
Coast for the 2015 ozone NAAQS.
(b) Coachella Valley
Table 2 summarizes the relevant
distinguishing parameters for each of
the emissions scenarios and shows
CARB’s corresponding VOC emissions
estimates for the Coachella Valley VMT
offset demonstration for the 2015 ozone
NAAQS.
TABLE 2—VMT EMISSIONS OFFSET INVENTORY SCENARIOS AND RESULTS FOR THE COACHELLA VALLEY NAA FOR THE
2015 OZONE NAAQS
VMT
(1,000/day)
Scenario
Base Year (2017) ........................................................................................................................
No Action (2032); no new measures, with VMT growth .............................................................
VMT Offset Ceiling (2032); no new measures, no VMT growth .................................................
Projected Actual (2032); new measures included, with VMT growth .........................................
13,479
16,284
13,479
16,284
Starts
(1,000/day)
1,751
2,395
2,023
2,350
VOC
emissions
(tpd)
3.1
2.0
1.6
1.6
lotter on DSK11XQN23PROD with PROPOSALS1
Source: July 2020 submittal, Tables 3 and 4, p. 28–29. Starts data provided in attachment (‘‘Coachella VMT Offset—2019 FSTIP—April 2
2020_USEPA.xlsx’’) in email dated August 11, 2022, from Nesamani Kalandiyur (CARB) to John Ungvarsky (EPA Region IX).
For the base year scenario, CARB ran
the EMFAC2017 model for the 2017
base year using VMT and starts data
corresponding to that year. As shown in
Table 2, CARB estimates the Coachella
Valley VOC emissions at 3.1 tpd in
2017.
For the no action scenario, CARB first
identified the on-road motor vehicle
control programs (i.e., TCSs or TCMs)
added or implemented since the base
year and incorporated into EMFAC2017.
CARB then ran EMFAC2017 with the
VMT and starts data corresponding to
the 2032 attainment year without the
emissions reductions from the on-road
motor vehicle control programs added
or implemented after the base year.
Thus, the no action scenario reflects the
hypothetical VOC emissions in the
attainment year if CARB had not added
or implemented any additional TCSs or
TCMs after 2017. As shown in Table 2,
CARB estimates the no action Coachella
Valley VOC emissions at 2.0 tpd in
2032.
For the VMT offset ceiling scenario,
CARB ran the EMFAC2017 model for
the 2032 attainment year but with VMT
and starts data corresponding to the
2017 base year. Like the no action
scenario, the EMFAC2017 model was
adjusted to reflect the VOC emissions
levels in the attainment year without the
benefits of the post-base-year on-road
motor vehicle control programs. Thus,
the VMT offset ceiling scenario reflects
hypothetical VOC emissions in the
Coachella Valley if CARB had not added
or implemented any TCSs or TCMs after
the base year and if there had been no
growth in VMT or vehicle trips between
the base year and the attainment year.
The hypothetical growth in emissions
due to growth in VMT and trips can be
determined from the difference between
the VOC emissions estimates under the
no action and VMT offset ceiling
scenarios. Based on the values in Table
2, the hypothetical growth in emissions
due to growth in VMT and trips in the
Coachella Valley would have been 0.4
tpd (i.e., 2.0 tpd minus 1.6 tpd). This
hypothetical difference establishes the
level of VMT growth-caused emissions
that need to be offset by the
combination of post-baseline year TCSs
and TCMs and any necessary additional
TCSs and TCMs.
For the projected actual scenario
calculation, CARB ran the EMFAC2017
model for the attainment year with VMT
and starts data at attainment year values
and with the full benefits of the relevant
post-baseline year motor vehicle control
programs. For this scenario, CARB
included the emissions benefits from
TCSs and TCMs added or implemented
since the base year. Significant VOC
emissions reductions during the 2017–
2037 timeframe result from the zero
emission vehicle provisions of the
Advanced Clean Cars program.36
As shown in Table 2, the projected
actual attainment year VOC emissions
are 1.6 tpd. CARB compared this value
against the corresponding VMT offset
ceiling value to determine whether
additional TCSs or TCMs would need to
be adopted and implemented in order to
offset any increase in emissions due
solely to VMT and trips. Because the
projected actual emissions do not
exceed the corresponding VMT offset
35 Attachment B–1 to the July 2022 submittal
includes a list of the state’s TCSs adopted by CARB
since 1990. Also see EPA final action on CARB
mobile source SIP submittals at 81 FR 39424 (June
16, 2016), 82 FR 14446 (March 21, 2017), and 83
FR 23232 (May 18, 2018). Also see email dated
August 16, 2022, from Nesamani Kalandiyur
(CARB) to John Ungvarsky (EPA Region IX).
36 Attachment B–1 to the July 2022 submittal
includes a list of the state’s TCSs adopted by CARB
since 1990. Also see EPA final action on CARB
mobile source SIP submittals at 81 FR 39424 (June
16, 2016), 82 FR 14446 (March 21, 2017), and 83
FR 23232 (May 18, 2018). Also see email dated
August 16, 2022, from Nesamani Kalandiyur
(CARB) to John Ungvarsky (EPA Region IX).
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Federal Register / Vol. 87, No. 243 / Tuesday, December 20, 2022 / Proposed Rules
ceiling emissions, CARB concluded that
the demonstration shows compliance
with the VMT emissions offset
requirement and that the adopted TCSs
and TCMs are sufficient to offset the
growth in emissions from the growth in
VMT and vehicle trips in the Coachella
Valley for the 2015 ozone NAAQS.
(c) San Joaquin Valley
Table 3 summarizes the relevant
distinguishing parameters for each of
the emissions scenarios and shows
CARB’s corresponding VOC emissions
estimates for the San Joaquin Valley
VMT offset demonstration for the 2015
ozone NAAQS.
TABLE 3—VMT EMISSIONS OFFSET INVENTORY SCENARIOS AND RESULTS FOR THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY NAA FOR THE
2015 OZONE NAAQS
VMT
(1,000/day)
Scenario
Base Year (2017) ........................................................................................................................
No Action (2037); no new measures, with VMT growth .............................................................
VMT Offset Ceiling (2037); no new measures, no VMT growth .................................................
Projected Actual (2037); new measures included, with VMT growth .........................................
101,828
128,611
101,828
128,611
Starts
(1,000/day)
VOC
Emissions
(tpd)
13,223
18,534
14,685
18,171
26.6
13.4
10.2
10.0
lotter on DSK11XQN23PROD with PROPOSALS1
Source: ‘‘SJV Total—8 GAIs—VMT Offset ROG Emissions—April 7 2020_USEPA (updated 081222).xlsx,’’ included in email dated August 15,
2022, from Nesamani Kalandiyur (CARB) to John Ungvarsky (EPA Region IX). Note that the San Joaquin Valley VMT offset demo in the July
2022 submittal erroneously reported VMT and emissions data for San Joaquin County rather than the entire San Joaquin Valley nonattainment
area. CARB provided VMT, starts, and emissions data for the San Joaquin Valley nonattainment area in CARB’s August 15, 2022 supplemental
email to EPA Region IX.
For the base year scenario, CARB ran
the EMFAC2017 model for the 2017
base year using VMT and starts data
corresponding to that year. As shown in
Table 3, CARB estimates the San
Joaquin Valley VOC emissions at 26.6
tpd in 2017.
For the no action scenario, CARB first
identified the on-road motor vehicle
control programs added or implemented
since the base year and incorporated
into EMFAC2017. CARB then ran
EMFAC2017 with the VMT and starts
data corresponding to the 2037
attainment year without the emissions
reductions from the on-road motor
vehicle control programs added or
implemented after the base year. Thus,
the no action scenario reflects the
hypothetical VOC emissions in the
attainment year if CARB had not added
or implemented any additional TCSs
and TCMs after 2017. As shown in
Table 3, CARB estimates the no action
San Joaquin Valley VOC emissions at
13.4 tpd in 2037.
For the VMT offset ceiling scenario,
CARB ran the EMFAC2017 model for
the 2037 attainment year but with VMT
and starts data corresponding to the
2017 base year. Like the no action
scenario, the EMFAC2017 model was
adjusted to reflect the VOC emissions
levels in the attainment year without the
benefits of the post-base-year on-road
motor vehicle control programs. Thus,
the VMT offset ceiling scenario reflects
hypothetical VOC emissions in the San
Joaquin Valley if CARB had not added
or implemented any TCSs and TCMs
after the base year and if there had been
no growth in VMT or vehicle trips
between the base year and the
attainment year.
The hypothetical growth in emissions
due to growth in VMT and trips can be
determined from the difference between
the VOC emissions estimates under the
no action and VMT offset ceiling
scenarios. Based on the values in Table
3, the hypothetical growth in emissions
due to growth in VMT and trips in the
San Joaquin Valley would have been 3.2
tpd (i.e., 13.4 tpd minus 10.2 tpd). This
hypothetical difference establishes the
level of VMT growth-caused emissions
that need to be offset by the
combination of post-baseline year TCSs
and TCMs and any necessary additional
TCSs and TCMs.
For the projected actual scenario
calculation, CARB ran the EMFAC2017
model for the attainment year with VMT
and starts data at attainment year values
and with the full benefits of the relevant
post-baseline year motor vehicle control
programs. For this scenario, CARB
included the emissions benefits from
TCSs and TCMs added or implemented
since the base year. Significant VOC
emissions reductions during the 2017–
2037 timeframe result from the zero
emission vehicle provisions of the
Advanced Clean Cars program.37
As shown in Table 3, the projected
actual attainment year VOC emissions
are 10.0 tpd. CARB compared this value
against the corresponding VMT offset
ceiling value to determine whether
additional TCSs or TCMs would need to
be adopted and implemented in order to
offset any increase in emissions due
solely to VMT and trips. Because the
projected actual emissions do not
exceed the corresponding VMT offset
ceiling emissions, CARB concluded that
the demonstration shows compliance
with the VMT emissions offset
requirement and that the adopted TCSs
and TCMs are sufficient to offset the
growth in emissions from the growth in
VMT and vehicle trips in the San
Joaquin Valley for the 2015 ozone
NAAQS.
37 Attachment A–1 to the December 2022
submittal includes a list of the state’s TCSs adopted
by CARB since 1990. Also see EPA final action on
CARB mobile source SIP submittals at 81 FR 39424
(June 16, 2016), 82 FR 14446 (March 21, 2017), and
83 FR 23232 (May 18, 2018), and email dated
August 16, 2022, from Nesamani Kalandiyur
(CARB) to John Ungvarsky (EPA Region IX).
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(d) West Mojave Desert
Table 4 summarizes the relevant
distinguishing parameters for each of
the emissions scenarios and shows
CARB’s corresponding VOC emissions
estimates for the West Mojave Desert
VMT offset demonstration for the 2015
ozone NAAQS.
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77781
TABLE 4—VMT EMISSIONS OFFSET INVENTORY SCENARIOS AND RESULTS FOR WEST MOJAVE DESERT NAA FOR THE
2015 OZONE NAAQS
VMT
(1,000/day)
Scenario
Base Year (2017) ........................................................................................................................
No Action (2032); no new measures, with VMT growth .............................................................
VMT Offset Ceiling (2032); no new measures, no VMT growth .................................................
Projected Actual (2032); new measures included, with VMT growth .........................................
Starts
(1,000/day)
31,687
38,740
31,687
38,740
VOC
Emissions
(tpd)
3,871
5,076
4,286
4,975
7.7
4.4
4.0
3.8
lotter on DSK11XQN23PROD with PROPOSALS1
Source: December 2020 submittal, Tables 1 and 2, p. 6–7. Starts data provided in attachment (‘‘Western Mojave VMT Offset—July 2020 Activity—July 24 2020_USEPA.xlsx’’) in email dated July 5, 2022, from Nesamani Kalandiyur (CARB) to John Ungvarsky (EPA Region IX).
For the base year scenario, CARB ran
the EMFAC2017 model for the 2017
base year using VMT and starts data
corresponding to that year. As shown in
Table 4, CARB estimates the West
Mojave Desert VOC emissions at 7.7 tpd
in 2017.
For the no action scenario, CARB first
identified the on-road motor vehicle
control programs (i.e., TCSs and TCMs
added or implemented since the base
year and incorporated into EMFAC2017.
CARB then ran EMFAC2017 with the
VMT and starts data corresponding to
the 2032 attainment year without the
emissions reductions from the on-road
motor vehicle control programs added
or implemented after the base year.
Thus, the no action scenario reflects the
hypothetical VOC emissions in the
attainment year if CARB had not added
or implemented any additional TCSs or
TCMs after 2017. As shown in Table 4,
CARB estimates the no action West
Mojave Desert VOC emissions at 4.4 tpd
in 2032.
For the VMT offset ceiling scenario,
CARB ran the EMFAC2017 model for
the 2032 attainment year but with VMT
and starts data corresponding to the
2017 base year. Like the no action
scenario, the EMFAC2017 model was
adjusted to reflect the VOC emissions
levels in the attainment year without the
benefits of the post-base-year on-road
motor vehicle control programs. Thus,
the VMT offset ceiling scenario reflects
hypothetical VOC emissions in the West
Mojave Desert if CARB had not added
or implemented any TCSs or TCMs after
the base year and if there had been no
growth in VMT or vehicle trips between
the base year and the attainment year.
The hypothetical growth in emissions
due to growth in VMT and trips can be
determined from the difference between
the VOC emissions estimates under the
no action and VMT offset ceiling
scenarios. Based on the values in Table
4, the hypothetical growth in emissions
due to growth in VMT and trips in the
West Mojave Desert would have been
0.4 tpd (i.e., 4.4 tpd minus 4.0 tpd). This
hypothetical difference establishes the
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level of VMT growth-caused emissions
that need to be offset by the
combination of post-baseline year TCSs
and TCMs and any necessary additional
TCSs and TCMs.
For the projected actual scenario
calculation, CARB ran the EMFAC2017
model for the attainment year with VMT
and starts data at attainment year values
and with the full benefits of the relevant
post-baseline year motor vehicle control
programs. For this scenario, CARB
included the emissions benefits from
TCSs and TCMs added or implemented
since the base year. Significant VOC
emissions reductions during the 2017–
2037 timeframe result from the zero
emission vehicle provisions of the
Advanced Clean Cars program.38
As shown in Table 4, the projected
actual attainment year VOC emissions
are 3.8 tpd. CARB compared this value
against the corresponding VMT offset
ceiling value to determine whether
additional TCSs or TCMs would need to
be adopted and implemented in order to
offset any increase in emissions due
solely to VMT and trips. Because the
projected actual emissions do not
exceed the corresponding VMT offset
ceiling emissions, CARB concluded that
the demonstration shows compliance
with the VMT emissions offset
requirement and that the adopted TCSs
and TCMs are sufficient to offset the
growth in emissions from the growth in
VMT and vehicle trips in the West
Mojave Desert for the 2015 ozone
NAAQS.
3. The EPA’s Review of the State’s
Submittals
The EPA reviewed the South Coast,
Coachella Valley, and San Joaquin
Valley VMT emissions offset
demonstrations in the July 2020
submittal and the West Mojave Desert
38 Attachment B–1 to the July 2022 submittal
includes a list of the state’s TCSs adopted by CARB
since 1990. Also see EPA final action on CARB
mobile source SIP submittals at 81 FR 39424 (June
16, 2016), 82 FR 14446 (March 21, 2017), and 83
FR 23232 (May 18, 2018), and email dated August
16, 2022, from Nesamani Kalandiyur (CARB) to
John Ungvarsky (EPA Region IX).
PO 00000
Frm 00033
Fmt 4702
Sfmt 4702
VMT emissions offset demonstration in
the December 2020 submittal. Based on
our review, we propose to find CARB’s
analysis to be consistent with our
August 2012 Guidance and consistent
with the emissions and vehicle activity
estimates provided by CARB. We agree
that the mobile source measures
adopted by CARB and implemented by
SCAG and the San Joaquin Valley MPOs
are sufficient to offset growth in
emissions from growth in VMT and
vehicle trips in the South Coast,
Coachella Valley, San Joaquin Valley,
and West Mojave Desert for the
purposes of the 2015 ozone NAAQS.
Therefore, we propose to approve the
South Coast, Coachella Valley, San
Joaquin Valley, and West Mojave Desert
VMT emissions offset demonstration
elements as meeting the requirements of
CAA section 182(d)(1)(A).
III. Proposed Action
For the reasons discussed in this
notice, under CAA section 110(k)(3), the
EPA is proposing to approve the
following as revisions to the California
SIP:
• VMT emissions offset
demonstration element in the July 27,
2020 CARB submittal for the Los
Angeles—South Coast Air Basin (South
Coast), Riverside County (Coachella
Valley), and San Joaquin Valley
nonattainment areas as meeting the
requirements of CAA section
182(d)(1)(A) and 40 CFR 51.1302 for the
2015 ozone NAAQS.
• VMT emissions offset
demonstration element in the December
28, 2020 CARB submittal for the Los
Angeles—San Bernardino Counties
(West Mojave Desert) as meeting the
requirements of CAA section
182(d)(1)(A) and 40 CFR 51.1302 for the
2015 ozone NAAQS.
IV. Statutory and Executive Order
Reviews
Additional information about these
statutes and Executive Orders can be
found at https://www2.epa.gov/lawsregulations/laws-and-executive-orders.
E:\FR\FM\20DEP1.SGM
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77782
Federal Register / Vol. 87, No. 243 / Tuesday, December 20, 2022 / Proposed Rules
A. Executive Order 12866, Regulatory
Planning and Review and Executive
Order 13563: Improving Regulation and
Regulatory Review
This action is not a significant
regulatory action and was therefore not
submitted to the Office of Management
and Budget (OMB) for review.
implications and will not impose
substantial direct costs on tribal
governments or preempt tribal law as
specified by Executive Order 13175.
FEDERAL COMMUNICATIONS
COMMISSION
G. Executive Order 13045, Protection of
Children From Environmental Health
Risks and Safety Risks
[DA 22–1237; MB Docket No. 22–398; RM–
11935; FR ID 117110]
B. Paperwork Reduction Act
This rule does not impose any new
information collection burden under the
Paperwork Reduction Act not already
approved by the OMB.
The EPA interprets Executive Order
13045 as applying only to those
regulatory actions that concern
environmental health or safety risks that
the EPA has reason to believe may
disproportionately affect children, per
the definition of ‘‘covered regulatory
action’’ in section 2–202 of the
Executive Order. This action is not
subject to Executive Order 13045
because it does not concern an
environmental health risk or safety risk.
C. Regulatory Flexibility Act
I certify that this action will not have
a significant economic impact on a
substantial number of small entities
under the Regulatory Flexibility Act.
This action will not impose any
requirements on small entities.
D. Unfunded Mandates Reform Act
This action does not contain any
unfunded mandate as described in the
Unfunded Mandates Reform Act, 2
U.S.C. 1531–1538, and does not
significantly or uniquely affect small
governments. This action imposes no
enforceable duty on any state, local or
tribal governments, or the private sector.
lotter on DSK11XQN23PROD with PROPOSALS1
E. Executive Order 13132, Federalism
This action does not have federalism
implications. It will not have substantial
direct effects on the states, tribes, or the
relationship between the national
government and the states and tribes, or
on the distribution of power and
responsibilities among the various
levels of government.
F. Executive Order 13175, Coordination
With Indian Tribal Governments
Executive Order 13175, entitled
‘‘Consultation and Coordination with
Indian Tribal Governments’’ (65 FR
67249, November 9, 2000), requires the
EPA to develop an accountable process
to ensure ‘‘meaningful and timely input
by tribal officials in the development of
regulatory policies that have tribal
implications.’’ ‘‘Policies that have tribal
implications’’ is defined in the
Executive Order to include regulations
that have ‘‘substantial direct effects on
one or more Indian tribes, on the
relationship between the Federal
government and the Indian tribes, or on
the distribution of power and
responsibilities between the Federal
government and Indian Tribes.’’
The state’s submission does not apply
to any Indian reservation land or in any
other area where the EPA or an Indian
tribe has demonstrated that a tribe has
jurisdiction. In those areas of Indian
country, the rule does not have tribal
VerDate Sep<11>2014
17:32 Dec 19, 2022
Jkt 259001
H. Executive Order 13211, Actions That
Significantly Affect Energy Supply,
Distribution, or Use
This proposed action is not subject to
Executive Order 13211 (66 FR 28355,
May 22, 2001) because it is not a
significant regulatory action under
Executive Order 12866.
I. National Technology Transfer and
Advancement Act
This rulemaking does not involve
technical standards.
J. Executive Order 12898: Federal
Actions To Address Environmental
Justice in Minority Populations and
Low-Income Population
The State did not evaluate
environmental justice considerations as
part of its SIP submittal. There is no
information in the record indicating that
this action would be inconsistent with
the stated goals of Executive Order
12898 of achieving environmental
justice for people of color, low-income
populations, and indigenous peoples.
List of Subjects in 40 CFR Part 52
Environmental protection, Air
pollution control, Incorporation by
reference, Intergovernmental relations,
Ozone, Reporting and recordkeeping
requirements, Volatile organic
compounds.
Authority: 42 U.S.C. 7401 et seq.
Dated: December 14, 2022.
Martha Guzman Aceves,
Regional Administrator, Region IX.
[FR Doc. 2022–27511 Filed 12–19–22; 8:45 am]
BILLING CODE 6560–50–P
PO 00000
Frm 00034
Fmt 4702
Sfmt 4702
47 CFR Part 73
Radio Broadcasting Services; Ralston,
Wyoming
Federal Communications
Commission.
ACTION: Proposed rule.
AGENCY:
This document requests
comments on a Petition for Rule Making
filed by Skye Media, LLC, proposing to
amend the FM Table of Allotments, by
allotting Channel 233C at Ralston,
Wyoming, as the community’s first local
service. A staff engineering analysis
indicates that Channel 233C can be
allotted to Ralston, Wyoming, consistent
with the minimum distance separation
requirements of the Commission’s rules
(Rules), with a site restriction of 32.1 km
(19.9 miles) southwest of the
community. The reference coordinates
are 44–29–42 NL and 109–09–12 WL.
DATES: Comments must be filed on or
before January 23, 2023, and reply
comments on or before February 7,
2023.
SUMMARY:
Secretary, Federal
Communications Commission, 45 L
Street NE, Washington, DC 20554. In
addition to filing comments with the
FCC, interested parties should serve the
counsel to petitioner as follows: Dawn
M. Sciarrino, SCIARRINO & SHUBERT,
PLLC, 330 Franklin Road, Suite 135A–
133, Brentwood, TN 37013.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT:
Rolanda F. Smith, Media Bureau, (202)
418–2054.
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: This is a
synopsis of the Federal
Communications Commission’s
(Commission) Notice of Proposed Rule
Making, MB Docket No. 22–398,
adopted November 30, 2022, and
released December 1, 2022. The full text
of this Commission decision is available
online at https://apps.fcc.gov/ecfs. The
full text of this document can also be
downloaded in Word or Portable
Document Format (PDF) at https://
www.fcc.gov/edocs. This document does
not contain proposed information
collection requirements subject to the
Paperwork Reduction Act of 1995,
Public Law 104–13. In addition,
therefore, it does not contain any
proposed information collection burden
‘‘for small business concerns with fewer
than 25 employees,’’ pursuant to the
Small Business Paperwork Relief Act of
ADDRESSES:
E:\FR\FM\20DEP1.SGM
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]]>Agencies
[Federal Register Volume 87, Number 243 (Tuesday, December 20, 2022)]
[Proposed Rules]
[Pages 77774-77782]
From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office [www.gpo.gov]
[FR Doc No: 2022-27511]
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
40 CFR Part 52
[EPA-R09-OAR-2022-0681; FRL-10386-01-R9]
Approval of Air Quality Implementation Plans; Vehicle Miles
Traveled Emissions Offset Demonstrations for the 2015 Ozone Standards;
California
AGENCY: Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).
ACTION: Proposed rule.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
SUMMARY: The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is proposing to
approve revisions to the California state implementation plan (SIP)
concerning vehicle miles traveled (VMT) offset demonstrations for the
Los Angeles--South Coast Air Basin (South Coast), Riverside County
(Coachella Valley), Los Angeles--San Bernardino Counties (West Mojave
Desert), and San Joaquin Valley nonattainment areas (NAAs) for the 2015
ozone national ambient air quality standards (NAAQS). The EPA is
proposing to approve these revisions because they demonstrate that
California has added or implemented specific enforceable transportation
control strategies and transportation control measures to offset the
growth in emissions from growth in VMT and vehicle trips. We are
proposing to approve these revisions under the Clean Air Act (CAA or
``the Act''), which establishes VMT offset demonstration requirements
for ozone nonattainment areas classified as ``Severe'' or ``Extreme.''
DATES: Written comments must arrive on or before January 19, 2023.
ADDRESSES: Submit your comments, identified by Docket ID No. EPA-R09-
OAR-2022-0681 at https://www.regulations.gov. For comments submitted at
Regulations.gov, follow the online instructions for submitting
comments. Once submitted, comments cannot be edited or removed from
Regulations.gov. The EPA may publish any comment received to its public
docket. Do not submit electronically any information you consider to be
Confidential Business Information (CBI) or other information whose
disclosure is restricted by statute. Multimedia submissions (audio,
video, etc.) must be accompanied by a written comment. The written
comment is considered the official comment and should include
discussion of all points you wish to make. The EPA will generally not
consider comments or comment contents located outside of the primary
[[Page 77775]]
submission (i.e., on the web, cloud, or other file sharing system). For
additional submission methods, please contact the person identified in
the FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT section. For the full EPA public
comment policy, information about CBI or multimedia submissions, and
general guidance on making effective comments, please visit https://www.epa.gov/dockets/commenting-epa-dockets. If you need assistance in a
language other than English or if you are a person with disabilities
who needs a reasonable accommodation at no cost to you, please contact
the person identified in the FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT section.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Ben Leers, Air Planning Office (AIR-
2), EPA Region IX, 75 Hawthorne Street, San Francisco, CA 94105, (415)
947-4279 or [email protected].
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Throughout this document, ``we,'' ``us,''
and ``our'' refer to the EPA.
Table of Contents
I. Background
II. Summary and Analysis of the State's Submittals
III. Proposed Action
IV. Statutory and Executive Order Reviews
I. Background
On October 26, 2015, the EPA promulgated a revised 8-hour ozone
NAAQS of 0.070 parts per million (ppm).\1\ In accordance with section
107(d) of the CAA, the EPA must designate an area ``nonattainment'' if
it is violating the NAAQS or if it is contributing to a violation of
the NAAQS in a nearby area.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\1\ 80 FR 65292 (October 26, 2015).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
On June 4, 2018, the EPA designated 21 areas in California as
nonattainment for the 2015 ozone NAAQS. The designations became
effective on August 3, 2018.\2\ In its June 4, 2018 action, the EPA
also classified the 21 nonattainment areas in California, including the
South Coast and San Joaquin Valley NAAs as Extreme nonattainment and
the Coachella Valley and West Mojave Desert NAAs as Severe
nonattainment.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\2\ 83 FR 25776 (June 4, 2018).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Within two years of designations, section 182(d)(1)(A) of the CAA
and 40 CFR 51.1302 require a state with an ozone NAA classified as
Severe or Extreme for the 2015 ozone NAAQS to submit a revision to the
SIP that addresses the VMT offset demonstration requirement in the
Act.\3\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\3\ CAA section 182(d)(1)(A) includes three separate elements.
In short, under section 182(d)(1)(A), states are required to adopt
transportation control strategies and measures to offset growth in
emissions from growth in VMT, and, as necessary, in combination with
other emissions reduction requirements, to demonstrate reasonable
further progress and attainment. For more information on the EPA's
interpretation of the three elements of section 182(d)(1)(A), see 77
FR 58067, 58068 (September 19, 2012) (proposed withdrawal of
approval of South Coast VMT emissions offset demonstrations). In
this action, we are only addressing the first element of CAA section
182(d)(1)(A), i.e., the VMT emissions offset requirement.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
On July 27, 2020, the California Air Resources Board (CARB)
submitted a staff report titled ``70 ppb Ozone SIP Submittal'' (``July
2020 submittal'') to the EPA.\4\ In part, the July 2020 submittal
contains the VMT offset demonstrations for the South Coast, Coachella
Valley, and San Joaquin Valley NAAs.\5\ On December 28, 2020, CARB
submitted to the EPA a staff report titled ``West Mojave Desert VMT
Offset Demonstration'' (``December 2020 submittal'') for the West
Mojave Desert NAA.\6\ In this action, we are evaluating and proposing
action on portions of the July 2020 submittal that address the South
Coast, Coachella Valley, and San Joaquin Valley VMT offset
demonstrations and the December 2020 submittal of the West Mojave
Desert VMT offset demonstration.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\4\ Letter dated July 24, 2020, from Richard W. Corey, Executive
Officer, CARB, to John Busterud, Regional Administrator, EPA Region
IX (submitted electronically July 27, 2020).
\5\ The July 2020 submittal also addresses base year emissions
inventory requirements for 18 of the 21 NAAs in California. The EPA
approved the July 2020 submittal as meeting the base year emissions
inventory requirements for the 18 areas addressed in the submittal
on September 29, 2022 (87 FR 59015).
\6\ Letter dated December 28, 2020, from Richard W. Corey,
Executive Officer, CARB, to John Busterud, Regional Administrator,
EPA Region IX (submitted electronically December 29, 2020).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
In California, CARB is the agency responsible for the adoption and
submission to the EPA of California SIPs and SIP revisions, and it has
broad authority to establish emissions standards and other requirements
for mobile sources. Local and regional air pollution control districts
in California are responsible for the regulation of stationary sources
and are generally responsible for the development of regional air
quality plans. The South Coast Air Quality Management District develops
and adopts air quality management plans to address CAA planning
requirements applicable in the South Coast and Coachella Valley NAAs.
The San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control District develops and
adopts air quality management plans to address CAA planning
requirements applicable in the San Joaquin Valley NAA. The Antelope
Valley Air Quality Management District and the Mojave Desert Air
Quality Management District collectively develop and adopt air quality
management plans to address CAA planning requirements applicable in the
West Mojave Desert. Such plans are then submitted to CARB for adoption
and submittal to the EPA as revisions to the California SIP.
A. The South Coast Ozone Nonattainment Area
The South Coast nonattainment area consists of Orange County, the
southwestern two-thirds of Los Angeles County, a portion of
southwestern San Bernardino County, and western Riverside County. The
South Coast nonattainment area encompasses an area of approximately
6,600 square miles and is bounded by the Pacific Ocean to the west and
the San Gabriel, San Bernardino, and San Jacinto mountains to the north
and east.\7\ The projected 2018 and 2030 populations of the South Coast
NAA are over 16 million and 18 million people, respectively.\8\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\7\ For a precise definition of the boundaries of the South
Coast 2015 ozone nonattainment area, see 40 CFR 81.305.
\8\ South Coast Air Quality Management District, ``2022 Draft
Air Quality Management Plan,'' Chapter 7, 7-2.
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B. The Coachella Valley 8-Hour Ozone Nonattainment Area
The Coachella Valley NAA is located within Riverside County, and
its boundaries generally align with the Riverside County portion of the
Salton Sea Air Basin.\9\ The projected 2018 and 2030 populations of the
Coachella Valley NAA are 471,012 and 568,622, respectively.\10\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\9\ For a precise definition of the boundaries of the Coachella
Valley 2015 ozone nonattainment area, see 40 CFR 81.305.
\10\ 2022 Draft Air Quality Management Plan, Chapter 7, 7-2.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
C. The San Joaquin Valley Ozone Nonattainment Area
The San Joaquin Valley NAA consists of San Joaquin, Stanislaus,
Merced, Madera, Fresno, Tulare, and Kings counties, and the western
portion of Kern County. The San Joaquin Valley NAA stretches over 250
miles from north to south, averages a width of 80 miles, and
encompasses over 23,000 square miles. It is partially enclosed by the
Coast Mountain range to the west, the Tehachapi Mountains to the south,
and the Sierra Nevada range to the east.\11\ The population of the San
Joaquin Valley in 2015 was estimated to be nearly 4.2 million people,
and it is
[[Page 77776]]
projected to increase to over 5.2 million people in 2030.\12\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\11\ For a precise definition of the boundaries of the San
Joaquin Valley 2015 ozone nonattainment area, see 40 CFR 81.305.
\12\ The population estimates and projections include all of
Kern County, not just the portion of Kern County within the
jurisdiction of the SJVAPCD. See San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution
Control District, ``2016 Ozone Plan for 2008 8-Hour Ozone
Standard,'' Adopted June 16, 2016, Chapter 1, Table 1-1.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
D. The West Mojave Desert Ozone Nonattainment Area
The West Mojave Desert NAA consists of northeast Los Angeles County
and portions of southwest and central San Bernardino County.\13\ The
population of the West Mojave Desert NAA was estimated at 868,380 in
2010.\14\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\13\ For a precise definition of the boundaries of the West
Mojave Desert 2015 ozone nonattainment area, see 40 CFR 81.305.
\14\ 8-Hour Ozone (2008) Designated Area/State Information,
Green Book, EPA, accessed on November 19, 2020, Population Data from
2010, https://www3.epa.gov/airquality/greenbook/hbtc.html.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
II. Summary and Analysis of the State's Submittals
A. Statutory and Regulatory Requirements
CAA sections 110(a)(1) and 110(l) and 40 CFR 51.102 require states
to provide reasonable notice and an opportunity for a public hearing
prior to adoption of SIP revisions. Section 110(k)(1)(B) requires the
EPA to determine whether a SIP submittal is complete within 60 days of
receipt. Any plan that the EPA does not affirmatively determine to be
complete or incomplete will become complete six months after the day of
submittal by operation of law. A finding of completeness does not
approve the submittal as part of the SIP, nor does it indicate that the
submittal is approvable. It does start a 12-month clock for the EPA to
act on the SIP submittal.\15\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\15\ See CAA section 110(k)(2).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
B. Summary of the State's Submittals
The July 2020 submittal documents the public review process
followed prior to submittal to the EPA of the South Coast, Coachella
Valley, and San Joaquin Valley VMT offset demonstrations as revisions
to the SIP. In addition to the VMT offset demonstrations, the July 2020
submittal includes a copy of CARB's notice for a public meeting on June
25, 2020,\16\ a transcript from the June 25, 2020 meeting,\17\ a signed
resolution stating that CARB provided at least 30 days for public
review prior to the board hearing and that the VMT offset
demonstrations were adopted after adequate notice and public
hearing,\18\ and a compilation of comments received by CARB prior to
and during the June 25, 2020 public meeting.\19\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\16\ ``Notice of Public Meeting to Consider 70 Parts Per Billion
Ozone State Implementation Plan Submittal,'' California Air
Resources Board, May 22, 2020.
\17\ ``Videoconference Meeting, State of California, Air
Resources Board, CALEPA Headquarters, Byron Sher Auditorium, Second
Floor, 1001 I Street, Sacramento, California,'' J&K Court Reporting,
LLC, June 25, 2020.
\18\ ``70 Parts Per Billion Ozone State Implementation Plan
Submittal,'' Resolution 20-17, CARB, June 25, 2020.
\19\ Compilation of comments received for 70 Parts Per Billion
Ozone State Implementation Plan Submittal. CARB indicated in its
July 24, 2020 transmittal letter to the EPA that CARB has considered
all comments and has determined all are non-substantive and do not
pertain to the action.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
The December 2020 submittal documents the public review process
followed prior to the submittal to the EPA of the West Mojave Desert
VMT offset demonstration as a revision to the SIP. In addition to the
West Mojave Desert VMT offset demonstration, the December 2020
submittal includes a copy of CARB's notice for a public meeting on
October 22, 2020,\20\ a signed resolution stating that CARB provided at
least 30 days for public review prior to the board hearing and the West
Mojave Desert VMT offset demonstration was adopted after adequate
notice and public hearing,\21\ and a comment received by CARB prior to
the October 22, 2020 public meeting.\22\
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\20\ ``Notice of Public Meeting to Consider the West Mojave
Desert VMT Offset Demonstration,'' California Air Resources Board,
September 18, 2020.
\21\ ``West Mojave Desert Vehicle Miles Traveled Offset
Demonstration,'' Resolution 20-27, California Air Resources Board,
October 22, 2020.
\22\ CARB determined the comment to be non-substantive and did
not pertain to the Board's action on the item. No comments were
received during the Board meeting.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
1. Stationary and Regulatory Requirements
Section 182(d)(1)(A) of the Act requires a state to submit, for
each ozone nonattainment area classified as Severe or above, a SIP
revision that ``identifies and adopts specific enforceable
transportation control strategies and transportation control measures
to offset any growth in emissions from growth in vehicle miles traveled
or number of vehicle trips in such area.'' Herein, we refer to the
related SIP requirement as the ``VMT emissions offset requirement.'' In
addition, we refer to the SIP revision intended to demonstrate
compliance with the VMT emissions offset requirement as the ``VMT
emissions offset demonstration.''
In Association of Irritated Residents v. EPA, the Ninth Circuit
ruled that additional transportation control measures are required
whenever vehicle emissions are projected to be higher than they would
have been had VMT not increased, even when aggregate vehicle emissions
are actually decreasing.\23\ In response to the court's decision, in
August 2012, the EPA issued a memorandum titled ``Implementing Clean
Air Act Section 182(d)(1)(A): Transportation Control Measures and
Transportation Control Strategies to Offset Growth in Emissions Due to
Growth in Vehicle Miles Travelled'' (``August 2012 Guidance'').\24\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\23\ See Association of Irritated Residents v. EPA, 632 F.3d.
584, at 596-597 (9th Cir. 2011), reprinted as amended on January 27,
2012, 686 F.3d 668, further amended February 13, 2012 (``Association
of Irritated Residents'').
\24\ Memorandum dated August 30, 2012, Karl Simon, Director,
Transportation and Climate Division, Office of Transportation and
Air Quality, to Carl Edland, Director, Multimedia Planning and
Permitting Division, EPA Region 6, and Deborah Jordan, Director, Air
Division, EPA Region 9.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
The August 2012 Guidance discusses the meaning of ``transportation
control strategies'' (TCS) and ``transportation control measures''
(TCM) and recommends that both TCSs and TCMs be included in the
calculations made for the purpose of determining the degree to which
any hypothetical growth in emissions due to growth in VMT should be
offset. Generally, TCS is a broad term that encompasses many types of
controls (including, for example, motor vehicle emissions limitations,
inspection and maintenance (I/M) programs, alternative fuel programs,
other technology-based measures, and TCMs) that would fit within the
regulatory definition of ``control strategy.'' \25\ A TCM is defined at
40 CFR 51.100(r) as ``any measure that is directed toward reducing
emissions of air pollutants from transportation sources,'' including,
but not limited to, those listed in section 108(f) of the CAA. TCMs
generally refer to programs intended to reduce VMT, number of vehicle
trips, or traffic congestion, such as programs for improved public
transit, designation of certain lanes for passenger buses and high-
occupancy vehicles, and trip reduction ordinances.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\25\ See, e.g., 40 CFR 51.100(n).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
The August 2012 Guidance explains how states may demonstrate that
the VMT emissions offset requirement is satisfied in conformance with
the Court's ruling in Association of Irritated Residents. Under the
August 2012 Guidance, states are recommended to develop one emissions
inventory for the base year and three different emissions inventory
scenarios for the attainment year. For the attainment year, the state
would present three emissions estimates, two of which would represent
[[Page 77777]]
hypothetical emissions scenarios that would provide the basis to
identify the ``growth in emissions'' due solely to the growth in VMT,
and one that would represent projected actual motor vehicle emissions
after fully accounting for projected VMT growth and offsetting
emissions reductions obtained by all creditable TCSs and TCMs. See the
August 2012 Guidance for specific details on how states might conduct
the calculations.
The base year on-road volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions
should be calculated using VMT in that year, and they should reflect
all enforceable TCSs and TCMs in place in the base year. This would
include vehicle emissions standards, state and local control programs,
such as I/M programs or fuel rules, and any additional implemented TCSs
and TCMs that were already required by or credited in the SIP as of
that base year.
The first of the emissions calculations for the attainment year is
based on the projected VMT and trips for that year and assume that no
new TCSs or TCMs beyond those already credited in the base year
inventory have been added or implemented since the base year. This
calculation demonstrates how emissions would hypothetically change if
no new TCSs or TCMs were added or implemented, and VMT and trips were
allowed to grow at the projected rate from the base year. This estimate
shows the potential for an increase in emissions due solely to growth
in VMT and trips, representing a ``no action'' scenario. Attainment
year emissions in this scenario may be lower than those in the base
year due to the fleet that was on the road in the base year gradually
being replaced through fleet turnover; however, provided that VMT and/
or numbers of vehicle trips would in fact increase by the attainment
year, emissions would still likely be higher than they would have been
assuming VMT had held constant.
The second of the attainment year's emissions calculations assumes
that no new TCSs or TCMs beyond those already credited have been added
or implemented since the base year, but it also assumes no growth in
VMT and trips between the base year and attainment year. This estimate
reflects the hypothetical emissions level that would have occurred if
no further TCMs or TCSs had been added or implemented and if VMT and
trip levels had held constant since the base year. Like the ``no
action'' attainment year estimate described above, emissions in the
attainment year may be lower than those in the base year due to the
fleet that was on the road in the base year gradually being replaced by
cleaner vehicles through fleet turnover, but in this case, they would
not be influenced by any growth in VMT or trips. This emissions
estimate reflects a ceiling on the attainment emissions that should be
allowed to occur under the statute as interpreted by the court in
Association of Irritated Residents because it shows what would happen
under a scenario in which no offsetting TCSs or TCMs have yet been
added or implemented, and VMT and trips are held constant during the
period from the area's base year to its attainment year. This
represents a ``VMT offset ceiling'' scenario. These two hypothetical
status quo estimates are necessary to identify the target level of
emissions from which states would determine whether further TCMs or
TCSs, beyond those that have been adopted and implemented in reality,
would need to be adopted and implemented in order to fully offset any
increase in emissions due solely to VMT and trips identified in the
``no action'' scenario.
Finally, the third attainment year emissions estimate represents
the emissions that are actually expected to occur in the area's
attainment year after taking into account reductions from all
enforceable TCSs and TCMs. This estimate is based on the VMT and trip
levels expected to occur in the attainment year (i.e., the VMT and trip
levels from the first estimate) and all of the TCSs and TCMs expected
to be in place and for which the SIP will take credit in the area's
attainment year, including any TCMs and TCSs added or implemented since
the base year. This represents the ``projected actual'' attainment year
scenario. If this emissions estimate is less than or equal to the
emissions ceiling that was established in the second of the attainment
year calculations, the TCSs and TCMs for the attainment year would be
sufficient to fully offset the identified hypothetical growth in
emissions.
If, instead, the estimated projected actual attainment year
emissions are still greater than the ceiling that was established in
the second of the attainment year emissions calculations, even after
accounting for post-baseline year TCSs and TCMs, the state would need
to adopt and implement additional TCSs or TCMs to further offset the
growth in emissions. The additional TCSs or TCMs would need to bring
the actual emissions down to at least the VMT offset ceiling estimated
in the second of the attainment year calculations, to meet the VMT
offset requirement of section 182(d)(1)(A) as interpreted by the Court.
2. Summary of State's Submission
CARB prepared the VMT emissions offset demonstrations for the South
Coast, Coachella Valley, San Joaquin Valley, and West Mojave Desert for
the 2015 ozone NAAQS, and they are documented in the July 2020 and
December 2020 submittals. In addition to the VMT emissions offset
demonstrations, the submittals include attachments listing TCSs adopted
by CARB since 1990,\26\ TCMs developed by the Southern California
Association of Governments (SCAG),\27\ the metropolitan planning
organization (MPO) for the South Coast, Coachella Valley, and West
Mojave Desert NAAs,\28\ and TCMs developed by the eight MPOs \29\ in
the San Joaquin Valley NAA.\30\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\26\ See attachments B-1 in the July 2020 submittal and A-1 in
the December 2020 submittal.
\27\ SCAG is the metropolitan planning organization for the
South Coast NAA and surrounding areas. The SCAG region also includes
the West Mojave Desert NAA and encompasses six counties (Imperial,
Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, and Ventura) and 191
cities in an area covering more than 38,000 square miles.
\28\ See attachments B-2 in the July 2020 submittal and A-2 in
the December 2020 submittal.
\29\ The following eight MPOs represent the eight counties in
the San Joaquin Valley nonattainment area: The San Joaquin Council
of Governments, the Stanislaus Council of Governments, the Merced
County Association of Governments, the Madera County Transportation
Commission, The Council of Fresno County Governments, The Kings
County Association of Governments, the Tulare County Association of
Governments, and the Kern Council of Governments.
\30\ See attachment B-2 in the July 2020 submittal.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
For the VMT emissions offset demonstrations, CARB used EMFAC2017,
the latest EPA-approved motor vehicle emissions model for California
available at the time the four VMT offset demonstrations were
developed.\31\ The EMFAC2017 model estimates the on-road emissions from
two combustion processes (i.e., running exhaust and start exhaust) and
four evaporative processes (i.e., hot soak, running losses, diurnal
losses, and resting losses). The EMFAC2017 model combines trip-based
VMT data from the regional transportation planning agency (e.g., SCAG),
vehicle start data based on household travel surveys, and vehicle
population data from the California Department of Motor Vehicles. These
sets of data are combined with corresponding emissions rates to
calculate emissions.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\31\ On August 15, 2019, the EPA approved and announced the
availability of EMFAC2017, the latest update to the EMFAC model for
use by State and local governments to meet CAA requirements. See 84
FR 41717 (August 15, 2019).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Emissions from running exhaust, start exhaust, hot soak, and
running losses are a function of how much a vehicle is
[[Page 77778]]
driven. Emissions from these processes are thus directly related to VMT
and vehicle trips, and CARB included these emissions in the
calculations that provide the basis for four VMT emissions offset
demonstrations addressed in this proposed action. CARB did not include
emissions from resting loss and diurnal loss processes in the analysis
because such emissions are related to vehicle population, not to VMT or
vehicle trips, and thus are not part of ``any growth in emissions from
growth in vehicle miles traveled or numbers of vehicle trips in such
area'' under CAA section 182(d)(1)(A).
The VMT emissions offset demonstrations in the July 2020 and
December 2020 submittals use a 2017 base year. The base year for VMT
emissions offset demonstration purposes should generally be the same
base year used for nonattainment planning purposes. On September 29,
2022, the EPA approved the 2017 base year inventories for 18 ozone NAAs
in California, including South Coast, Coachella Valley, San Joaquin
Valley, and West Mojave Desert, for the purposes of the 2015 ozone
NAAQS, and thus, CARB's selection of 2017 is appropriate as the base
year for the VMT emissions offset demonstrations for the 2015 ozone
NAAQS in the July 2020 and December 2020 submittals.\32\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\32\ 87 FR 59015.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
The VMT emissions offset demonstrations also include the three
different attainment year scenarios (i.e., no action, VMT offset
ceiling, and projected actual) described in section II.B.1 of this
notice. On July 5, 2022, CARB provided additional technical information
in support of the attainment year inventories used to derive the three
different attainment year scenarios in the VMT offset
demonstrations.\33\ On August 16, 2020, CARB provided additional
technical clarification regarding vehicle populations, VMT, and vehicle
starts (i.e., trips) in the attainment scenarios. Because mileage
accrual rates vary between gasoline and electric vehicles, the vehicle
populations and starts vary among the attainment year scenarios. VMT
accrual for gasoline vehicles is slightly higher than electric vehicles
before model year (MY) 2025; because CARB anticipates that battery
range will increase over time, CARB assumes that VMT accrual per year
for electric vehicles will equal that of gasoline vehicles in MY 2025
and later. Further, other factors such as spatial allocation and fuel
matching characteristics of the EMFAC model influence the vehicle
population estimates. Therefore, different populations of gasoline and
electric vehicles (and, consequently, different total populations and
numbers of starts) may correspond to the same VMT.\34\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\33\ CARB further clarified the additional technical information
in supplementary emails dated August 11 and 16, 2022, from Nesamani
Kalandiyur (CARB) to John Ungvarsky (EPA Region IX) regarding VMT
offset demonstrations.
\34\ See email dated August 16, 2022, from Nesamani Kalandiyur
(CARB) and Karina O'Connor (EPA Region IX) to John Ungvarsky (EPA
Region IX) regarding VMT offset demonstrations.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
The EPA has reviewed the supporting technical information used to
calculate the 2032 attainment year scenarios for Coachella Valley and
West Mojave Desert Severe nonattainment areas and the 2037 attainment
year scenarios for South Coast and San Joaquin Valley Extreme
nonattainment areas. We reviewed the VMT, vehicle population, and
vehicle trip data input to EMFAC2017 and compared modeled emissions
reductions to the reductions expected from measures implemented after
the base year. Based on our review, we propose to find the information
to be adequate for use in the VMT offset demonstrations. We propose to
find acceptable CARB's selection of year 2032 as the attainment year
for the Coachella Valley and West Mojave Desert VMT emissions offset
demonstrations and 2037 as the attainment year for the South Coast and
San Joaquin Valley VMT emissions offset demonstrations for the 2015
ozone NAAQS.
(a) South Coast
Table 1 summarizes the relevant distinguishing parameters for each
of the emissions scenarios and shows CARB's corresponding VOC emissions
estimates in tons per day (tpd) for the South Coast VMT offset
demonstration for the 2015 ozone NAAQS.
Table 1--VMT Emissions Offset Inventory Scenarios and Results for South Coast for the 2015 Ozone NAAQS
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
VMT (1,000/ Starts (1,000/ VOC emissions
Scenario day) day) (tpd)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Base Year (2017)................................................ 395,571 48,172 75
No Action (2037); no new measures, with VMT growth.............. 407,368 61,173 40
VMT Offset Ceiling (2037); no new measures, no VMT growth....... 395,571 59,997 36
Projected Actual (2037); new measures included, with VMT growth. 407,368 59,869 29
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: July 2020 submittal, Tables 1 and 2, p. 25-26. Starts data provided in attachment (``South Coast VMT
Offset--2019 FSTIP--February 27 2020_USEPA.xlsx'') in email dated July 5, 2022, from Nesamani Kalandiyur
(CARB) to John Ungvarsky (EPA Region IX).
For the base year scenario, CARB ran the EMFAC2017 model for the
2017 base year using VMT and starts data corresponding to that year. As
shown in Table 1, CARB estimates the South Coast VOC emissions at 75
tpd in 2017.
For the no action scenario, CARB first identified the on-road motor
vehicle control programs (i.e., TCSs or TCMs) added or implemented
since the base year and incorporated into EMFAC2017. CARB then ran
EMFAC2017 with the VMT and starts data corresponding to the 2037
attainment year without the emissions reductions from the on-road motor
vehicle control programs added or implemented after the base year.
Thus, the no action scenario reflects the hypothetical VOC emissions in
the attainment year if CARB had not added or implemented any additional
TCSs or TCMs after 2017. As shown in Table 1, CARB estimates the no
action South Coast VOC emissions at 40 tpd in 2037.
For the VMT offset ceiling scenario, CARB ran the EMFAC2017 model
for the 2037 attainment year but with VMT and starts data corresponding
to the 2017 base year. Like the no action scenario, the EMFAC2017 model
was adjusted to reflect the VOC emissions levels in the attainment year
without the benefits of the post-base-year on-road motor vehicle
control programs. Thus, the VMT offset ceiling scenario reflects
hypothetical VOC emissions in the South Coast if CARB had not added or
implemented any TCSs or TCMs after the base year and if there had been
no
[[Page 77779]]
growth in VMT or vehicle trips between the base year and the attainment
year.
The hypothetical growth in emissions due to growth in VMT and trips
can be determined from the difference between the VOC emissions
estimates under the no action and VMT offset ceiling scenarios. Based
on the values in Table 1, the hypothetical growth in emissions due to
growth in VMT and trips in the South Coast would have been 4 tpd (i.e.,
40 tpd minus 36 tpd). This hypothetical difference establishes the
level of VMT growth-caused emissions that need to be offset by the
combination of post-baseline year TCSs and TCMs and any necessary
additional TCSs and TCMs.
For the projected actual scenario calculation, CARB ran the
EMFAC2017 model for the attainment year with VMT and starts data at
attainment year values and with the full benefits of the relevant post-
baseline year motor vehicle control programs. For this scenario, CARB
included the emissions benefits from TCSs and TCMs added or implemented
since the base year. Significant VOC emissions reductions during the
2017-2037 timeframe result from the zero emission vehicle provisions of
the Advanced Clean Cars program.\35\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\35\ Attachment B-1 to the July 2022 submittal includes a list
of the state's TCSs adopted by CARB since 1990. Also see EPA final
action on CARB mobile source SIP submittals at 81 FR 39424 (June 16,
2016), 82 FR 14446 (March 21, 2017), and 83 FR 23232 (May 18, 2018).
Also see email dated August 16, 2022, from Nesamani Kalandiyur
(CARB) to John Ungvarsky (EPA Region IX).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
As shown in Table 1, the projected actual attainment year VOC
emissions are 29 tpd. CARB compared this value against the
corresponding VMT offset ceiling value to determine whether additional
TCSs or TCMs would need to be adopted and implemented in order to
offset any increase in emissions due solely to VMT and trips. Because
the projected actual emissions do not exceed the corresponding VMT
offset ceiling emissions, CARB concluded that the demonstration shows
compliance with the VMT emissions offset requirement and that the
adopted TCSs and TCMs are sufficient to offset the growth in emissions
from the growth in VMT and vehicle trips in the South Coast for the
2015 ozone NAAQS.
(b) Coachella Valley
Table 2 summarizes the relevant distinguishing parameters for each
of the emissions scenarios and shows CARB's corresponding VOC emissions
estimates for the Coachella Valley VMT offset demonstration for the
2015 ozone NAAQS.
Table 2--VMT Emissions Offset Inventory Scenarios and Results for the Coachella Valley NAA for the 2015 Ozone
NAAQS
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
VMT (1,000/ Starts (1,000/ VOC emissions
Scenario day) day) (tpd)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Base Year (2017)................................................ 13,479 1,751 3.1
No Action (2032); no new measures, with VMT growth.............. 16,284 2,395 2.0
VMT Offset Ceiling (2032); no new measures, no VMT growth....... 13,479 2,023 1.6
Projected Actual (2032); new measures included, with VMT growth. 16,284 2,350 1.6
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: July 2020 submittal, Tables 3 and 4, p. 28-29. Starts data provided in attachment (``Coachella VMT
Offset--2019 FSTIP--April 2 2020_USEPA.xlsx'') in email dated August 11, 2022, from Nesamani Kalandiyur (CARB)
to John Ungvarsky (EPA Region IX).
For the base year scenario, CARB ran the EMFAC2017 model for the
2017 base year using VMT and starts data corresponding to that year. As
shown in Table 2, CARB estimates the Coachella Valley VOC emissions at
3.1 tpd in 2017.
For the no action scenario, CARB first identified the on-road motor
vehicle control programs (i.e., TCSs or TCMs) added or implemented
since the base year and incorporated into EMFAC2017. CARB then ran
EMFAC2017 with the VMT and starts data corresponding to the 2032
attainment year without the emissions reductions from the on-road motor
vehicle control programs added or implemented after the base year.
Thus, the no action scenario reflects the hypothetical VOC emissions in
the attainment year if CARB had not added or implemented any additional
TCSs or TCMs after 2017. As shown in Table 2, CARB estimates the no
action Coachella Valley VOC emissions at 2.0 tpd in 2032.
For the VMT offset ceiling scenario, CARB ran the EMFAC2017 model
for the 2032 attainment year but with VMT and starts data corresponding
to the 2017 base year. Like the no action scenario, the EMFAC2017 model
was adjusted to reflect the VOC emissions levels in the attainment year
without the benefits of the post-base-year on-road motor vehicle
control programs. Thus, the VMT offset ceiling scenario reflects
hypothetical VOC emissions in the Coachella Valley if CARB had not
added or implemented any TCSs or TCMs after the base year and if there
had been no growth in VMT or vehicle trips between the base year and
the attainment year.
The hypothetical growth in emissions due to growth in VMT and trips
can be determined from the difference between the VOC emissions
estimates under the no action and VMT offset ceiling scenarios. Based
on the values in Table 2, the hypothetical growth in emissions due to
growth in VMT and trips in the Coachella Valley would have been 0.4 tpd
(i.e., 2.0 tpd minus 1.6 tpd). This hypothetical difference establishes
the level of VMT growth-caused emissions that need to be offset by the
combination of post-baseline year TCSs and TCMs and any necessary
additional TCSs and TCMs.
For the projected actual scenario calculation, CARB ran the
EMFAC2017 model for the attainment year with VMT and starts data at
attainment year values and with the full benefits of the relevant post-
baseline year motor vehicle control programs. For this scenario, CARB
included the emissions benefits from TCSs and TCMs added or implemented
since the base year. Significant VOC emissions reductions during the
2017-2037 timeframe result from the zero emission vehicle provisions of
the Advanced Clean Cars program.\36\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\36\ Attachment B-1 to the July 2022 submittal includes a list
of the state's TCSs adopted by CARB since 1990. Also see EPA final
action on CARB mobile source SIP submittals at 81 FR 39424 (June 16,
2016), 82 FR 14446 (March 21, 2017), and 83 FR 23232 (May 18, 2018).
Also see email dated August 16, 2022, from Nesamani Kalandiyur
(CARB) to John Ungvarsky (EPA Region IX).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
As shown in Table 2, the projected actual attainment year VOC
emissions are 1.6 tpd. CARB compared this value against the
corresponding VMT offset ceiling value to determine whether additional
TCSs or TCMs would need to be adopted and implemented in order to
offset any increase in emissions due solely to VMT and trips. Because
the projected actual emissions do not exceed the corresponding VMT
offset
[[Page 77780]]
ceiling emissions, CARB concluded that the demonstration shows
compliance with the VMT emissions offset requirement and that the
adopted TCSs and TCMs are sufficient to offset the growth in emissions
from the growth in VMT and vehicle trips in the Coachella Valley for
the 2015 ozone NAAQS.
(c) San Joaquin Valley
Table 3 summarizes the relevant distinguishing parameters for each
of the emissions scenarios and shows CARB's corresponding VOC emissions
estimates for the San Joaquin Valley VMT offset demonstration for the
2015 ozone NAAQS.
Table 3--VMT Emissions Offset Inventory Scenarios and Results for the San Joaquin Valley NAA for the 2015 Ozone
NAAQS
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
VMT (1,000/ Starts (1,000/ VOC Emissions
Scenario day) day) (tpd)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Base Year (2017)................................................ 101,828 13,223 26.6
No Action (2037); no new measures, with VMT growth.............. 128,611 18,534 13.4
VMT Offset Ceiling (2037); no new measures, no VMT growth....... 101,828 14,685 10.2
Projected Actual (2037); new measures included, with VMT growth. 128,611 18,171 10.0
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: ``SJV Total--8 GAIs--VMT Offset ROG Emissions--April 7 2020_USEPA (updated 081222).xlsx,'' included in
email dated August 15, 2022, from Nesamani Kalandiyur (CARB) to John Ungvarsky (EPA Region IX). Note that the
San Joaquin Valley VMT offset demo in the July 2022 submittal erroneously reported VMT and emissions data for
San Joaquin County rather than the entire San Joaquin Valley nonattainment area. CARB provided VMT, starts,
and emissions data for the San Joaquin Valley nonattainment area in CARB's August 15, 2022 supplemental email
to EPA Region IX.
For the base year scenario, CARB ran the EMFAC2017 model for the
2017 base year using VMT and starts data corresponding to that year. As
shown in Table 3, CARB estimates the San Joaquin Valley VOC emissions
at 26.6 tpd in 2017.
For the no action scenario, CARB first identified the on-road motor
vehicle control programs added or implemented since the base year and
incorporated into EMFAC2017. CARB then ran EMFAC2017 with the VMT and
starts data corresponding to the 2037 attainment year without the
emissions reductions from the on-road motor vehicle control programs
added or implemented after the base year. Thus, the no action scenario
reflects the hypothetical VOC emissions in the attainment year if CARB
had not added or implemented any additional TCSs and TCMs after 2017.
As shown in Table 3, CARB estimates the no action San Joaquin Valley
VOC emissions at 13.4 tpd in 2037.
For the VMT offset ceiling scenario, CARB ran the EMFAC2017 model
for the 2037 attainment year but with VMT and starts data corresponding
to the 2017 base year. Like the no action scenario, the EMFAC2017 model
was adjusted to reflect the VOC emissions levels in the attainment year
without the benefits of the post-base-year on-road motor vehicle
control programs. Thus, the VMT offset ceiling scenario reflects
hypothetical VOC emissions in the San Joaquin Valley if CARB had not
added or implemented any TCSs and TCMs after the base year and if there
had been no growth in VMT or vehicle trips between the base year and
the attainment year.
The hypothetical growth in emissions due to growth in VMT and trips
can be determined from the difference between the VOC emissions
estimates under the no action and VMT offset ceiling scenarios. Based
on the values in Table 3, the hypothetical growth in emissions due to
growth in VMT and trips in the San Joaquin Valley would have been 3.2
tpd (i.e., 13.4 tpd minus 10.2 tpd). This hypothetical difference
establishes the level of VMT growth-caused emissions that need to be
offset by the combination of post-baseline year TCSs and TCMs and any
necessary additional TCSs and TCMs.
For the projected actual scenario calculation, CARB ran the
EMFAC2017 model for the attainment year with VMT and starts data at
attainment year values and with the full benefits of the relevant post-
baseline year motor vehicle control programs. For this scenario, CARB
included the emissions benefits from TCSs and TCMs added or implemented
since the base year. Significant VOC emissions reductions during the
2017-2037 timeframe result from the zero emission vehicle provisions of
the Advanced Clean Cars program.\37\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\37\ Attachment A-1 to the December 2022 submittal includes a
list of the state's TCSs adopted by CARB since 1990. Also see EPA
final action on CARB mobile source SIP submittals at 81 FR 39424
(June 16, 2016), 82 FR 14446 (March 21, 2017), and 83 FR 23232 (May
18, 2018), and email dated August 16, 2022, from Nesamani Kalandiyur
(CARB) to John Ungvarsky (EPA Region IX).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
As shown in Table 3, the projected actual attainment year VOC
emissions are 10.0 tpd. CARB compared this value against the
corresponding VMT offset ceiling value to determine whether additional
TCSs or TCMs would need to be adopted and implemented in order to
offset any increase in emissions due solely to VMT and trips. Because
the projected actual emissions do not exceed the corresponding VMT
offset ceiling emissions, CARB concluded that the demonstration shows
compliance with the VMT emissions offset requirement and that the
adopted TCSs and TCMs are sufficient to offset the growth in emissions
from the growth in VMT and vehicle trips in the San Joaquin Valley for
the 2015 ozone NAAQS.
(d) West Mojave Desert
Table 4 summarizes the relevant distinguishing parameters for each
of the emissions scenarios and shows CARB's corresponding VOC emissions
estimates for the West Mojave Desert VMT offset demonstration for the
2015 ozone NAAQS.
[[Page 77781]]
Table 4--VMT Emissions Offset Inventory Scenarios and Results for West Mojave Desert NAA for the 2015 Ozone
NAAQS
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
VMT (1,000/ Starts (1,000/ VOC Emissions
Scenario day) day) (tpd)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Base Year (2017)................................................ 31,687 3,871 7.7
No Action (2032); no new measures, with VMT growth.............. 38,740 5,076 4.4
VMT Offset Ceiling (2032); no new measures, no VMT growth....... 31,687 4,286 4.0
Projected Actual (2032); new measures included, with VMT growth. 38,740 4,975 3.8
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: December 2020 submittal, Tables 1 and 2, p. 6-7. Starts data provided in attachment (``Western Mojave
VMT Offset--July 2020 Activity--July 24 2020_USEPA.xlsx'') in email dated July 5, 2022, from Nesamani
Kalandiyur (CARB) to John Ungvarsky (EPA Region IX).
For the base year scenario, CARB ran the EMFAC2017 model for the
2017 base year using VMT and starts data corresponding to that year. As
shown in Table 4, CARB estimates the West Mojave Desert VOC emissions
at 7.7 tpd in 2017.
For the no action scenario, CARB first identified the on-road motor
vehicle control programs (i.e., TCSs and TCMs added or implemented
since the base year and incorporated into EMFAC2017. CARB then ran
EMFAC2017 with the VMT and starts data corresponding to the 2032
attainment year without the emissions reductions from the on-road motor
vehicle control programs added or implemented after the base year.
Thus, the no action scenario reflects the hypothetical VOC emissions in
the attainment year if CARB had not added or implemented any additional
TCSs or TCMs after 2017. As shown in Table 4, CARB estimates the no
action West Mojave Desert VOC emissions at 4.4 tpd in 2032.
For the VMT offset ceiling scenario, CARB ran the EMFAC2017 model
for the 2032 attainment year but with VMT and starts data corresponding
to the 2017 base year. Like the no action scenario, the EMFAC2017 model
was adjusted to reflect the VOC emissions levels in the attainment year
without the benefits of the post-base-year on-road motor vehicle
control programs. Thus, the VMT offset ceiling scenario reflects
hypothetical VOC emissions in the West Mojave Desert if CARB had not
added or implemented any TCSs or TCMs after the base year and if there
had been no growth in VMT or vehicle trips between the base year and
the attainment year.
The hypothetical growth in emissions due to growth in VMT and trips
can be determined from the difference between the VOC emissions
estimates under the no action and VMT offset ceiling scenarios. Based
on the values in Table 4, the hypothetical growth in emissions due to
growth in VMT and trips in the West Mojave Desert would have been 0.4
tpd (i.e., 4.4 tpd minus 4.0 tpd). This hypothetical difference
establishes the level of VMT growth-caused emissions that need to be
offset by the combination of post-baseline year TCSs and TCMs and any
necessary additional TCSs and TCMs.
For the projected actual scenario calculation, CARB ran the
EMFAC2017 model for the attainment year with VMT and starts data at
attainment year values and with the full benefits of the relevant post-
baseline year motor vehicle control programs. For this scenario, CARB
included the emissions benefits from TCSs and TCMs added or implemented
since the base year. Significant VOC emissions reductions during the
2017-2037 timeframe result from the zero emission vehicle provisions of
the Advanced Clean Cars program.\38\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\38\ Attachment B-1 to the July 2022 submittal includes a list
of the state's TCSs adopted by CARB since 1990. Also see EPA final
action on CARB mobile source SIP submittals at 81 FR 39424 (June 16,
2016), 82 FR 14446 (March 21, 2017), and 83 FR 23232 (May 18, 2018),
and email dated August 16, 2022, from Nesamani Kalandiyur (CARB) to
John Ungvarsky (EPA Region IX).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
As shown in Table 4, the projected actual attainment year VOC
emissions are 3.8 tpd. CARB compared this value against the
corresponding VMT offset ceiling value to determine whether additional
TCSs or TCMs would need to be adopted and implemented in order to
offset any increase in emissions due solely to VMT and trips. Because
the projected actual emissions do not exceed the corresponding VMT
offset ceiling emissions, CARB concluded that the demonstration shows
compliance with the VMT emissions offset requirement and that the
adopted TCSs and TCMs are sufficient to offset the growth in emissions
from the growth in VMT and vehicle trips in the West Mojave Desert for
the 2015 ozone NAAQS.
3. The EPA's Review of the State's Submittals
The EPA reviewed the South Coast, Coachella Valley, and San Joaquin
Valley VMT emissions offset demonstrations in the July 2020 submittal
and the West Mojave Desert VMT emissions offset demonstration in the
December 2020 submittal. Based on our review, we propose to find CARB's
analysis to be consistent with our August 2012 Guidance and consistent
with the emissions and vehicle activity estimates provided by CARB. We
agree that the mobile source measures adopted by CARB and implemented
by SCAG and the San Joaquin Valley MPOs are sufficient to offset growth
in emissions from growth in VMT and vehicle trips in the South Coast,
Coachella Valley, San Joaquin Valley, and West Mojave Desert for the
purposes of the 2015 ozone NAAQS. Therefore, we propose to approve the
South Coast, Coachella Valley, San Joaquin Valley, and West Mojave
Desert VMT emissions offset demonstration elements as meeting the
requirements of CAA section 182(d)(1)(A).
III. Proposed Action
For the reasons discussed in this notice, under CAA section
110(k)(3), the EPA is proposing to approve the following as revisions
to the California SIP:
VMT emissions offset demonstration element in the July 27,
2020 CARB submittal for the Los Angeles--South Coast Air Basin (South
Coast), Riverside County (Coachella Valley), and San Joaquin Valley
nonattainment areas as meeting the requirements of CAA section
182(d)(1)(A) and 40 CFR 51.1302 for the 2015 ozone NAAQS.
VMT emissions offset demonstration element in the December
28, 2020 CARB submittal for the Los Angeles--San Bernardino Counties
(West Mojave Desert) as meeting the requirements of CAA section
182(d)(1)(A) and 40 CFR 51.1302 for the 2015 ozone NAAQS.
IV. Statutory and Executive Order Reviews
Additional information about these statutes and Executive Orders
can be found at https://www2.epa.gov/laws-regulations/laws-and-executive-orders.
[[Page 77782]]
A. Executive Order 12866, Regulatory Planning and Review and Executive
Order 13563: Improving Regulation and Regulatory Review
This action is not a significant regulatory action and was
therefore not submitted to the Office of Management and Budget (OMB)
for review.
B. Paperwork Reduction Act
This rule does not impose any new information collection burden
under the Paperwork Reduction Act not already approved by the OMB.
C. Regulatory Flexibility Act
I certify that this action will not have a significant economic
impact on a substantial number of small entities under the Regulatory
Flexibility Act. This action will not impose any requirements on small
entities.
D. Unfunded Mandates Reform Act
This action does not contain any unfunded mandate as described in
the Unfunded Mandates Reform Act, 2 U.S.C. 1531-1538, and does not
significantly or uniquely affect small governments. This action imposes
no enforceable duty on any state, local or tribal governments, or the
private sector.
E. Executive Order 13132, Federalism
This action does not have federalism implications. It will not have
substantial direct effects on the states, tribes, or the relationship
between the national government and the states and tribes, or on the
distribution of power and responsibilities among the various levels of
government.
F. Executive Order 13175, Coordination With Indian Tribal Governments
Executive Order 13175, entitled ``Consultation and Coordination
with Indian Tribal Governments'' (65 FR 67249, November 9, 2000),
requires the EPA to develop an accountable process to ensure
``meaningful and timely input by tribal officials in the development of
regulatory policies that have tribal implications.'' ``Policies that
have tribal implications'' is defined in the Executive Order to include
regulations that have ``substantial direct effects on one or more
Indian tribes, on the relationship between the Federal government and
the Indian tribes, or on the distribution of power and responsibilities
between the Federal government and Indian Tribes.''
The state's submission does not apply to any Indian reservation
land or in any other area where the EPA or an Indian tribe has
demonstrated that a tribe has jurisdiction. In those areas of Indian
country, the rule does not have tribal implications and will not impose
substantial direct costs on tribal governments or preempt tribal law as
specified by Executive Order 13175.
G. Executive Order 13045, Protection of Children From Environmental
Health Risks and Safety Risks
The EPA interprets Executive Order 13045 as applying only to those
regulatory actions that concern environmental health or safety risks
that the EPA has reason to believe may disproportionately affect
children, per the definition of ``covered regulatory action'' in
section 2-202 of the Executive Order. This action is not subject to
Executive Order 13045 because it does not concern an environmental
health risk or safety risk.
H. Executive Order 13211, Actions That Significantly Affect Energy
Supply, Distribution, or Use
This proposed action is not subject to Executive Order 13211 (66 FR
28355, May 22, 2001) because it is not a significant regulatory action
under Executive Order 12866.
I. National Technology Transfer and Advancement Act
This rulemaking does not involve technical standards.
J. Executive Order 12898: Federal Actions To Address Environmental
Justice in Minority Populations and Low-Income Population
The State did not evaluate environmental justice considerations as
part of its SIP submittal. There is no information in the record
indicating that this action would be inconsistent with the stated goals
of Executive Order 12898 of achieving environmental justice for people
of color, low-income populations, and indigenous peoples.
List of Subjects in 40 CFR Part 52
Environmental protection, Air pollution control, Incorporation by
reference, Intergovernmental relations, Ozone, Reporting and
recordkeeping requirements, Volatile organic compounds.
Authority: 42 U.S.C. 7401 et seq.
Dated: December 14, 2022.
Martha Guzman Aceves,
Regional Administrator, Region IX.
[FR Doc. 2022-27511 Filed 12-19-22; 8:45 am]
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