Energy Conservation Program: Energy Conservation Standards for Manufactured Housing: Availability of Provisional Analysis, 59042-59062 [2021-23188]
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Proposed Rules
Federal Register
Vol. 86, No. 204
Tuesday, October 26, 2021
This section of the FEDERAL REGISTER
contains notices to the public of the proposed
issuance of rules and regulations. The
purpose of these notices is to give interested
persons an opportunity to participate in the
rule making prior to the adoption of the final
rules.
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
10 CFR Part 460
[EERE–2009–BT–BC–0021]
RIN 1904–AC11
Energy Conservation Program: Energy
Conservation Standards for
Manufactured Housing: Availability of
Provisional Analysis
Office of Energy Efficiency and
Renewable Energy, Department of
Energy.
ACTION: Supplemental notice of
proposed rulemaking; reopening of
public comment period and notification
of data availability (NODA).
AGENCY:
The U.S. Department of
Energy (DOE) is reopening the public
comment period for the supplemental
notice of proposed rulemaking
(‘‘SNOPR’’) regarding proposals to
amend energy conservation standards
for manufactured housing. DOE
published the SNOPR in the Federal
Register on August 26, 2021. DOE is
also publishing a notice of data
availability (NODA) for the
manufactured housing energy
conservation standards rulemaking
announcing the availability of updated
analyses and results, and is giving
interested parties an opportunity to
comment on these analyses and submit
additional data.
DATES: The comment period for the
SNOPR which published on August 26,
2021 (86 FR 47744), is reopened. DOE
will accept comments, data, and
information regarding the SNOPR and
NODA received no later than November
26, 2021. See section IX, ‘‘Public
Participation,’’ for details.
ADDRESSES: Any comments submitted
must identify the NODA for Energy
Conservation Standards for
Manufactured Housing and provide
docket number EERE–2009–BT–STD–
0021 and/or regulatory information
number (RIN) number 1904–AC11.
Submit electronic comments in
WordPerfect, Microsoft Word, PDF, or
SUMMARY:
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ASCII file format, and avoid the use of
special characters or any form of
encryption.
Although DOE has routinely accepted
public comment submissions through a
variety of mechanisms, including postal
mail and hand delivery/courier, the
Department has found it necessary to
make temporary modifications to the
comment submission process in light of
the ongoing Covid–19 pandemic. DOE is
currently suspending receipt of public
comments via postal mail and hand
delivery/courier. If a commenter finds
that this change poses an undue
hardship, please contact Appliance
Standards Program staff at (202) 586–
1445 to discuss the need for alternative
arrangements. Once the Covid–19
pandemic health emergency is resolved,
DOE anticipates resuming all of its
regular options for public comment
submission, including postal mail and
hand delivery/courier.
No telefacsimilies (faxes) will be
accepted. For detailed instructions on
submitting comments and additional
information on the rulemaking process,
see section IX.A of this document.
Docket: The docket for this activity,
which includes Federal Register
notices, comments, and other
supporting documents/materials, is
available for review at
www.regulations.gov. All documents in
the docket are listed in the
www.regulations.gov index. However,
not all documents listed in the index
may be publicly available, such as
information that is exempt from public
disclosure.
The docket web page can be found at
www.regulations.gov/docket?D=EERE2009-BT-BC-0021. The docket web page
contains instructions on how to access
all documents, including public
comments, in the docket. See section
IX.A for information on how to submit
comments through
www.regulations.gov.
Mr.
John Cymbalsky, U.S. Department of
Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and
Renewable Energy, Building
Technologies Program (EE–2J), 1000
Independence Avenue SW, Washington,
DC 20585; 202–287–1692;
john.cymbalsky@ee.doe.gov.
Mr. Matthew Ring, U.S. Department of
Energy, Office of the General Counsel
(GC–33), 1000 Independence Avenue
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT:
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SW, Washington, DC 20585; 202–586–
2555; matthew.ring@hq.doe.gov.
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION:
Table of Contents
I. Background
II. Summary of the Analyses Performed by
the Department of Energy
III. Summary of the Updated Inputs Since the
August 2021 MH SNOPR
A. 2021 CFPB Manufactured Housing
Finance Report
B. 2020 Manufactured Housing Survey
C. AEO 2021
D. 2020 Shipments
IV. Summary of Updated SNOPR Analysis
Results
V. Sensitivity Analysis Results—Alternate
Size-Based Tier Threshold For the Tiered
Standard
VI. Sensitivity Analysis Results—Alternate
R–21 Exterior Wall Insulation for
Climate Zone 2 and 3 for Tier 2 and
Untiered Standards
A. Sensitivity Analysis Results—Alternate
R–21 Exterior Wall Insulation for
Climate Zone 2 and 3 Combined With
Alternate Size-Based Tier Threshold for
Tiered Standard
VII. Comparison of the August 2021 MH
SNOPR and NODA Results
VIII. Reopening of Comment Period
IX. Public Participation
A. Submission of Comments
X. Approval of the Office of the Secretary
I. Background
DOE published a supplemental notice
of proposed rulemaking (‘‘SNOPR’’)
proposing amended energy conservation
standards for manufactured housing on
August 26, 2021 (‘‘August 2021 MH
SNOPR’’). 86 FR 47744. In the August
2021 MH SNOPR, DOE’s primary
proposal was the ‘‘tiered’’ approach,
based on the 2021 IECC, wherein a
subset of the energy conservation
standards would be less stringent for
certain manufactured homes in light of
the cost-effectiveness considerations
required by statute. Under the tiered
proposal, two sets of standards would
be established in proposed 10 CFR part
460, subpart B (i.e., Tier 1 and Tier 2).
Tier 1 would apply to manufactured
homes with a manufacturer’s retail list
price of $55,000 or less, and also
incorporate building thermal envelope
measures based on certain thermal
envelope components subject to the
2021 IECC, but would limit the
incremental purchase price increase to
an average of approximately $750. Tier
2 would apply to manufactured homes
with a manufacturer’s retail list price
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above $55,000, and incorporate building
thermal envelope measures based on
certain thermal envelope components
and specifications of the 2021 IECC (i.e.,
the Tier 2 requirements would be the
same as those under the proposed
single, ‘‘untiered’’ set of standards). 86
FR 47744, 47746.
As noted in the August 2021 MH
SNOPR, several data sources that served
as inputs to the August 2021 MH
SNOPR have since been updated to
include more recent data that DOE did
not incorporate in its analyses in the
August 2021 MH SNOPR. 86 FR 47758.
DOE sought comment on the use of
these data sources for this rulemaking.
Further, based on comments and
consultations with the U.S. Department
of Housing and Urban Development
(HUD), DOE conducted a sensitivity
analysis using an alternate tier threshold
based on size (e.g., single-section vs.
multi-section homes) for the tiered
proposal. DOE also performed a
sensitivity analysis with alternate wall
insulation requirements for climate
zones 2 and 3 for both the tiered and the
untiered standards. This notice of data
availability (NODA) announces the
availability of these updated inputs and
corresponding analyses results and
invites interested parties to submit
comments on these analyses or provide
any additional data. DOE will consider
the updated inputs and corresponding
analyses, as well comments on the
inputs and analyses, as part of this
rulemaking. DOE may further revise the
analysis presented in this rulemaking
based on any new or updated
information or data it obtains. DOE
encourages stakeholders to provide any
additional data or information that may
inform the analysis.
II. Summary of the Analyses Performed
by the Department of Energy
DOE conducted analyses of
manufactured housing for both the
August 2021 MH SNOPR and this
NODA in the following areas: (1) Lifecycle cost (‘‘LCC’’) and payback period
(‘‘PBP’’), (2) national impacts, and (3)
emissions impacts.
DOE conducts LCC and PBP analyses
to evaluate the economic impacts on
individual consumers of energy
conservation standards for
manufactured housing. The LCC is the
total consumer expense of a
manufactured home over the life of that
home, consisting of total installed cost
plus total operating costs. To compute
the total operating costs, DOE discounts
future operating costs to the time of
purchase and sums them over the
lifetime of the product (or another
specified period).1 The PBP is the
estimated amount of time (in years) it
takes consumers to recover the
increased purchase cost of a moreefficient manufactured home through
lower operating costs.
DOE conducts the national impact
analysis (‘‘NIA’’) to assess the national
energy savings (‘‘NES’’) and the national
net present value (‘‘NPV’’) from a
national perspective of total consumer
costs and savings that would be
expected to result from new or amended
standards. DOE calculates the NES and
NPV based on projections of annual
product shipments, along with the
annual energy consumption and total
incremental cost data from the LCC
analyses.
Finally, DOE estimates environmental
benefits in the form of reduced
emissions of air pollutants and
greenhouse gases associated with
electricity production. DOE bases these
estimates on a 30-year analysis period of
manufactured home shipments and
includes the reductions in emissions
that accrue over the 30-year home
lifetime. DOE’s analysis estimates
reductions in emissions of six pollutants
associated with energy savings: Carbon
dioxide (CO2), mercury (Hg), nitric
59043
oxide and nitrogen dioxide (NOX),
sulfur dioxide (SO2), methane (CH4),
and nitrous oxide (N2O). These
reductions are referred to as ‘‘site’’
emissions reductions. Furthermore,
DOE estimates reductions due to
‘‘upstream’’ activities in the fuel
production chain. These upstream
activities comprise extraction,
processing, and transporting fuels to the
site of combustion. Together, site
emissions reductions and upstream
emissions reductions account for the
FFC. Further, DOE calculates the value
of the reduced emissions of CO2, CH4,
and N2O (collectively, greenhouse gases
or GHGs) using a range of values per
metric ton of pollutant, consistent with
the interim estimates issued in February
2021 under Executive Order 13990.
Separately, DOE also estimates the
monetary benefits from the reduced
emissions of NOX and SO2.
III. Summary of the Updated Inputs
Since the August 2021 MH SNOPR
As noted in the August 2021 MH
SNOPR, several data sources that served
as inputs to the August 2021 MH
SNOPR have since been updated to
include more recent data that DOE did
not incorporate in its analyses in the
August 2021 MH SNOPR. 86 FR 47758.
Table III.1 presents a summary of the
updated inputs and the analyses that are
impacted because of the updates to the
data. DOE will consider the updated
inputs and corresponding analyses, as
well comments on the inputs and
analyses, as part of this rulemaking.
DOE may further revise the analysis
presented in this rulemaking based on
any new or updated information or data
it obtains. DOE encourages stakeholders
to provide any additional data or
information that may inform the
analysis.
TABLE III.1—UPDATED INPUTS TO THE ANALYSIS CONDUCTED FOR THE ENERGY CONSERVATION STANDARDS
SNOPR
NODA
Analyses impacted
2014 Consumer Finance Protection Bureau
(CFPB) Manufactured Housing Finance Report.
2019 Manufactured Housing Survey (MHS) ......
2021 CFPB Manufactured Housing Finance
Report.
Impacts the LCC, PBP and NIA analyses.
2020 MHS ........................................................
Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) 2020 .................
AEO 2021 .........................................................
2019 Shipments .................................................
2015 Energy Star Shipments .............................
2020 Shipments ...............................................
2020 Energy Star Shipments.
Determines the manufacturer’s retail list price
threshold for the tiered proposal, and affects shipments for NIA and emissions analyses.
Impacts the LCC, PBP, NIA and emissions
analyses.
Impacts the NIA and emissions analyses.
1 In the August 2021 SNOPR, DOE performed LCC
analyses for a 30-year period, based on the assumed
lifetime of manufactured homes. 86 FR 87744,
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87791–87792. Additionally, based on comments
received, to measure the LCC of the first
homeowner of a manufactured home, DOE also
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performed LCC analyses for a 10-year period. Id.
Analyses for both a 30-year and 10-year period are
presented in this NODA.
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Sections III.A through III.D provide a
summary of the input updates for this
NODA. Sections IV through VI provide
the LCC, PBP, national and emissions
impacts results based on the input
updates discussed in this section.
A. 2021 CFPB Manufactured Housing
Finance Report
The CFPB manufactured housing
(‘‘MH’’) report analyzes the differences
between mortgage loans used for sitebuilt homes, and mortgage loans and
chattel loans used for manufactured
homes.2 For the August 2021 MH
SNOPR, the proposed manufacturer’s
retail list price tier threshold for the
tiered standard was developed using
loan data derived from the 2014 CFPB
report,3 and purchase price data derived
from the MHS 2019 Public Use File
(‘‘PUF’’) data.4 86 FR 47744, 47760. In
this NODA, DOE maintained the same
analysis as the August 2021 MH
SNOPR, but updated the CFPB MH
report source to the latest version,
which is the 2021 CFPB MH report.
Section III.B provides the discussion
regarding the updated purchase price
data using MHS 2020 PUF data.
To calculate the tier threshold for the
tiered standard, DOE considered that
low-income purchasers of manufactured
homes would mostly likely use chattel
loans, or similar loans that are highpriced.5 The 2014 CFPB MH report
explicitly stated that high-priced
manufactured housing loans (including
chattel loans) account for roughly 68
percent of total manufactured housing
loans.6
The 2021 CFPB MH report no longer
reports this information. Instead, the
2021 CFPB MH report lists the
proportion of loans that are chattel
loans, as well as the proportion of
chattel and non-chattel loans that are
high-priced loans. The 2021 CFPB MH
report states that 42 percent of all
manufactured home loans are chattel
loans; accordingly, DOE determined that
the remaining (58 percent) would be
non-chattel loans. Of the chattel loans,
the 2021 CFPB MH report states that
93.8 percent are high-priced loans.
Similarly, of the non-chattel loans, the
2021 CFPB MH report states that 52.4
percent are high-priced loans. Using
these data, DOE estimates that
approximately 70 percent (42% * 93.8%
+ 58% * 52.4% = 70%) of all
manufactured housing loans (i.e.,
chattel and non-chattel loans) were
high-priced loans. Accordingly, for this
NODA, DOE assumed that high-priced
manufactured housing loans (including
chattel loans) account for roughly 70
percent of total manufactured housing
loans. This percentage is used to
determine the updated manufacturer’s
retail list price tier threshold, which is
discussed further in section III.B.
Additionally, the 2021 CFPB MH
report also lists the median chattel loan
term as 23 years, which differs from the
15-year value that DOE assumed in the
August 2021 MH SNOPR, which was
based on suggestions from the MH
working group. 86 FR 47744, 47793. For
this NODA, DOE assumes a chattel loan
term of 23 years, which is consistent
with the 2021 CFPB MH report. The
impact of the longer loan on the analysis
is that it increased LCC savings and
decreased NPV at 3 percent discount
rate.
B. 2020 Manufactured Housing Survey
The MHS, which is sponsored by
HUD and collected by the Census
Bureau, provides data on shipments,
prices and characteristics of new
manufactured housing.7 Specifically,
the MHS PUF data provide estimates of
average sales prices for new
manufactured homes sold or intended
for sale by geographical region and size
of home.
As discussed in section III.A, for the
August 2021 MH SNOPR, the purchase
price data used to determine the
manufacturer’s retail list price tier
threshold was derived from the MHS
2019 PUF data. 86 FR 47744, 47760. In
this section, DOE discusses the updates
based on the latest MHS data, which is
the MHS 2020 PUF data.8
The MHS 2020 PUF data set provides
data that relates Census region (the U.S.
Census Bureau divides the country into
four census regions) with sales price.
Table III.2 summarizes the average,
minimum and maximum sales prices
based on census region and number of
sections. In general, the data indicate
that average sales price (specifically for
single-section homes) does not differ
significantly based on census region.
TABLE III.2—MHS PUF 2020 CENSUS REGION AND SALES PRICE DATA
Single-section sales price
(2020$)
Census region
Average
Northeast ..................................................
Midwest ....................................................
South ........................................................
West .........................................................
All .............................................................
$57,916
56,983
56,798
61,748
57,233
Minimum
Dual-section sales price*
(2020$)
Maximum
$35,600
33,200
31,400
34,100
31,400
$95,000
79,000
79,000
117,000
117,000
Average
$107,951
104,987
106,942
118,282
108,583
Minimum
$56,000
54,000
58,000
64,000
54,000
Maximum
$233,000
184,000
170,000
236,000
236,000
* The MHS PUF 2020 dataset provides multi-section home sales price separately for dual-section homes and triple-section (or larger) homes;
however the triple-section (or larger) homes data is not differentiated by census region. Therefore, DOE only presents the dual-section data in
this table, which should generally represent the sales price for multi-section homes (triple-section or larger represent 1 percent of the market in
2020 based on the MHS PUF 2020 dataset).
Further, the MHS also summarizes
average manufactured home sales price
by state.9 Table III.3 presents the
average sales prices in 2020 per HUD
climate zone based on the MHS data
discussed previously and manufactured
2 Manufactured Housing Finance: New Insights
from the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act; https://
www.consumerfinance.gov/data-research/researchreports/manufactured-housing-finance-newinsights-hmda/.
3 CFPB report, 2014. https://files.consumer
finance.gov/f/201409_cfpb_report_manufacturedhousing.pdf.
4 Manufactured Housing Survey, Public Use File
(PUF) 2019. https://www.census.gov/data/datasets/
2019/econ/mhs/puf.html.
5 The Consumer Finance Protection Bureau
(CFPB) generally describes a higher-priced mortgage
loan as a loan with an annual percentage rate, or
APR, higher than a benchmark rate called the
Average Prime Offer Rate. The requirements for this
loan can be found in 12 CFR 1026.35.
6 2014 CFPB MH report; See page 6.
7 Manufactured Housing Survey;
www.census.gov/programs-surveys/mhs.html.
8 Manufactured Housing Survey, Public Use File
(PUF) 2020. https://www.census.gov/data/datasets/
2020/econ/mhs/puf.html.
9 Manufactured Housing Survey, Annual Tables
of New Manufactured Homes: 2014–2020; https://
www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/econ/mhs/
annual-data.html.
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home shipments published by
Manufactured Housing Institute.10
TABLE III.3—MHS AVERAGE SALES
PRICE DATA BY HUD CLIMATE ZONE
HUD
climate
zone
1 ................
2 ................
3 ................
Single-section
average sales
price
(2020$)
Dual-section
average sales
price
(2020$)
$57,124
57,290
56,207
$107,003
111,208
109,147
To determine the updated
manufacturer’s retail list price tier in a
similar manner to what was considered
in the August 2021 MH SNOPR, DOE
assumed that price-sensitive, lowincome purchasers rely on high-priced
loans, given the inability to qualify for
conventional loans. Based on the
analysis in section III.A, the 70th
percentile manufactured housing price
gives an estimate for the upper bound
for a manufactured home sales price
that a price-sensitive low-income
purchaser could afford. If people
typically receive one primary loan, the
percentage of high-priced loans used
should be roughly equivalent to the
percentage of people receiving highpriced loans (e.g., 70 percent). DOE
considered that low-income purchasers
would mainly purchase single-section
homes that are, on average, at a lower
sales price than multi-section homes.
Applying the 70th percentile for singlesection manufactured homes using the
MHS PUF 2020 data yields a sales price
of approximately $63,000 (in real
2020$).
Using the updated tier threshold at
$63,000 (in real 2020$) and the MHS
PUF 2020 data set, DOE determined the
shipment breakdown based on tier and
climate zone using the same
methodology as presented in the August
2021 MH SNOPR. 86 FR 47744, 47809–
47810. This included applying a
‘‘substitution effect’’ 11 to 20 percent of
homes within $1,000 of the price
threshold ($63,001–$64,000) that would
shift to less stringent standards, i.e.,
from Tier 2 to Tier 1. Id. Accordingly,
Table III.4 presents the corresponding
percentage of total manufactured homes
placed/sold applicable to each tier
based on climate zone and size using
the updated inputs. Compared to the
August 2021 MH SNOPR, a higher
percentage of single-section
manufactured home shipments are in
Tier 1, i.e., Climate zone 1 or 2: 73.85
percent in this document vs. 53.58
percent in the August 2021 MH SNOPR;
Climate zone 3: 73.28 percent in this
document vs. 57.32 percent in the
August 2021 MH SNOPR). Further, a
portion of multi-section manufactured
home shipments will also be in Tier 1.
TABLE III.4—SHIPMENT BREAKDOWN BASED ON TIER AND PROPOSED CLIMATE ZONE
Climate zone 1 or 2
Single-section
(%)
Climate zone 3
Multi-section
(%)
Single-section
(%)
Multi-section
(%)
Combined
climate zone
(%)
Tier 1 Standard ....................................................................
Tier 2 Standard ....................................................................
74
26
5
95
73
27
3
97
35
65
Total ..............................................................................
100
100
100
100
100
C. AEO 2021
The AEO presents long-term annual
projections of energy supply, demand,
and prices. The projections, focused on
U.S. energy markets, are based on
results from DOE Energy Information
Administration’s (‘‘EIA’’) National
Energy Modeling System (‘‘NEMS’’).
NEMS enables EIA to make projections
under internally consistent sets of
assumptions. DOE used AEO
projections as inputs into several
analyses for the August 2021 MH
SNOPR, which are discussed in more
detail in this section.
For the August 2021 MH SNOPR,
DOE used inputs from AEO 2020 for
establishing energy prices, escalation
rates, inflation rates and housing starts.
86 FR 47744, 47794. In this NODA, DOE
maintains the same source as the August
2021 MH SNOPR, but updated the AEO
source to the latest version, which is
AEO 2021.12 Further, DOE updated the
electricity prices from the EIA ShortTerm Energy Outlook.13 Specifically,
DOE used electricity prices from 2020
quarter 2 and quarter 3 for summer
electricity prices, and quarter 4 of 2020
and quarter 1 of 2021 for winter
electricity prices. Table III.5 presents a
comparison of the August 2021 MH
SNOPR and NODA fuel prices and
escalation rates.
TABLE III.5—AEO 2021 FUEL PRICES AND ESCALATION RATES UPDATES
SNOPR
Escalation rate
(%)
Price
Electricity:
Summer ................................................................................
Winter ....................................................................................
Natural gas ...................................................................................
Liquid petroleum gas (LPG) .........................................................
Oil .................................................................................................
10 Manufactured Housing Institute, Annual
Production and Shipment Data; https://
www.manufacturedhousing.org/annualproduction/.
11 DOE considered that a percentage of
manufactured homes placed/sold would shift to
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13.3
12.9
10.3
21.6
22.8
NODA
cents/kWh .......
cents/kWh
$/MBtu .............
$/Mbtu .............
$/Mbtu .............
less stringent standards, i.e., a percentage of homes
from Tier 2 would shift to Tier 1. The inclusion of
this shift in the market is to more accurately
estimate energy savings (and other downstream
results).
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2.3
2.8
4.1
3.3
Price
13.3
13.2
10.1
17.3
17.8
cents/kWh .......
cents/kWh
$/Mbtu .............
$/Mbtu .............
$/Mbtu .............
Escalation rate
(%)
2.2
2.8
3.7
3.8
12 Energy Information Administration. Annual
Energy Outlook 2021 with Projections to 2050.
(2021).
13 Energy Information Administration. ShortTerm Energy Outlook: Real Prices Viewer. Available
at: www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/realprices/.
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To forecast the nominal price increase
of manufactured homes, DOE used the
inflation forecast rate built into the AEO
2021 at 2.28 percent, compared to the
August 2021 MH SNOPR inflation based
on AEO 2020 at 2.33 percent. To
forecast shipments into the future, DOE
used a 5-year-average projection for
growth in new housing starts from AEO
2021 resulting in a 0.42 percent growth
per year compared to the August 2021
MH SNOPR projection for growth based
on AEO 2020 at 0.3 percent growth per
year.
For the August 2021 MH SNOPR,
DOE derived annual average site-topower plant factors based on the version
of the NEMS that corresponds to AEO
2020. DOE calculated primary energy
savings (power plant consumption) from
site electricity savings by applying a
factor to account for losses associated
with the generation, transmission, and
distribution of electricity. DOE
computed the full-fuel cycle (‘‘FFC’’) by
encompassing the energy consumed in
extracting, processing, and transporting
or distributing primary fuels, which we
refer to as ‘‘upstream’’ activities. 86 FR
47744, 47814. In this NODA, DOE
updated the same inputs to AEO 2021.
Table III.6 presents a comparison of the
August 2021 MH SNOPR (based on AEO
2020) and NODA (based on AEO 2021)
primary energy and FFC factors.
TABLE III.6—PRIMARY ENERGY AND FFC FACTORS, 2020–2050
Dimensionless factor
Factor type
Fuel type
2020
I
2030
I
2040
I
2050
SNOPR
Primary ..........................
FFC ...............................
Electricity ..............................................................
Electricity ..............................................................
Natural Gas ..........................................................
LPG/Oil .................................................................
2.881
1.049
1.109
1.174
2.669
1.044
1.114
1.172
2.650
1.044
1.112
1.176
2.653
1.041
1.107
1.180
2.845
1.044
1.101
1.169
2.714
1.039
1.098
1.171
2.698
1.037
1.098
1.179
2.677
1.037
1.099
1.185
NODA
Primary ..........................
FFC ...............................
Electricity ..............................................................
Electricity ..............................................................
Natural Gas ..........................................................
LPG/Oil .................................................................
For the August 2021 MH SNOPR,
DOE also used the AEO 2020 to derive
the power sector marginal emissions
intensity factors for CO2, NOX, SO2, and
Hg. 86 FR 47744, 47814. For this NODA,
DOE updated the emissions factors to
AEO 2021.
Finally, in the August 2021 MH
SNOPR, DOE also proposed that under
the tiered proposal the manufacturer’s
retail list price thresholds would be
adjusted for inflation (for the applicable
year of compliance) using the most
recently available AEO GDP deflator
time series, which at the time was AEO
2020. 86 FR 47744, 47761. As such, in
Table III.7, DOE provides the updated
AEO 2021 GDP deflator series.
D. 2020 Shipments
2035
2040
2045
2050
14 See Manufactured Home Shipments by Product
Mix, 2019, Manufactured Housing Institute.
www.manufacturedhousing.org/annualproduction/.
The Institute for Building Technology
and Safety (‘‘IBTS’’) provides yearly
shipments of manufactured homes,
which is also published by the
Manufactured Housing Institute
(‘‘MHI’’).14 For the August 2021 MH
SNOPR, DOE considered the 2019
shipment data provided through MHI as
the latest data available at the time of
the analysis. 86 FR 47744, 47798. For
the August 2021 MH SNOPR, DOE only
received historical shipment data of
ENERGY STAR certified manufactured
homes categorized by state from 2001 to
2015. Chapter 10 of the August 2021
MH SNOPR Technical Support
Document (‘‘TSD’’). Further, DOE did
not account for ENERGY STAR homes
TABLE III.7—AEO 2021 GDP
for the no-standard shipments and
DEFLATOR
therefore excluded any ENERGY STAR
shipments to avoid overestimating
GDP deflator
energy savings. 86 FR 47744, 47808.
In this NODA, DOE updated the
2020 ......................................
1
2025 ......................................
1.0756 August 2021 MH SNOPR analysis by
2030 ......................................
1.2203 considering the 2020 shipment data
......................................
......................................
......................................
......................................
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1.5208
1.7038
1.9527
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provided through MHI.15 Further, DOE
also received updated 2020 ENERGY
STAR shipment data, albeit not
separated by size (i.e., single-section vs.
multi-section). DOE notes that there are
more ENERGY STAR shipments in 2020
than projected in the August 2021 MH
SNOPR, which reduces the total number
of shipments applicable for the nostandards case and standards case
compared to the August 2021 MH
SNOPR, in turn reducing the net present
value (NPV) for both the untiered and
tiered standards. Finally, as discussed
in section III.C, DOE also updated the
housing starts (shipment growth rate) to
be consistent with AEO 2021. Table III.8
and Table III.9 presents the singlesection and multi-section manufactured
home shipments considered in the
August 2021 MH SNOPR and this
NODA.
15 See Manufactured Home Shipments by Product
Mix, 2020, Manufactured Housing Institute.
www.manufacturedhousing.org/annualproduction/.
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59047
Federal Register / Vol. 86, No. 204 / Tuesday, October 26, 2021 / Proposed Rules
TABLE III.8—SINGLE-SECTION MANUFACTURED HOMES SHIPMENTS
No-Standards case
Tiered standard
Untiered standard
Year
SNOPR
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
.........................................................
.........................................................
.........................................................
.........................................................
.........................................................
.........................................................
NODA
41,304
41,923
42,558
43,198
43,853
44,514
SNOPR
36,855
37,632
38,429
39,243
40,074
40,927
NODA
40,610
41,225
41,853
42,481
43,128
43,768
SNOPR
36,388
37,155
37,938
38,744
39,565
40,403
NODA
40,041
40,640
41,255
41,876
42,507
43,153
35,642
36,395
37,164
37,950
38,754
39,579
TABLE III.9—MULTI-SECTION MANUFACTURED HOMES SHIPMENTS
No-Standards case
Tiered standard
Untiered standard
Year
SNOPR
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
.........................................................
.........................................................
.........................................................
.........................................................
.........................................................
.........................................................
NODA
48,268
48,999
49,738
50,489
51,249
52,019
IV. Summary of Updated SNOPR
Analysis Results
SNOPR
43,045
43,952
44,886
45,836
46,803
47,798
NODA
47,247
47,961
48,685
49,421
50,163
50,919
SNOPR
42,069
42,965
43,869
44,800
45,752
46,727
NODA
47,247
47,961
48,685
49,421
50,163
50,919
42,038
42,924
43,836
44,768
45,710
46,681
analyses based on the updates discussed
in section III.
This section provides the results for
the LCC and PBP, NIA and Emissions
TABLE IV.1—AVERAGE MANUFACTURED HOUSING PURCHASE PRICE (AND PERCENTAGE) INCREASES UNDER THE TIERED
STANDARD
[2020$]
Tier 1
Tier 2
Single-section
$
Multi-section
%
$
Single-section
%
$
Multi-section
%
$
%
Climate Zone 1 ..................
Climate Zone 2 ..................
Climate Zone 3 ..................
$627
627
719
1.2
1.2
1.4
$897
897
700
0.9
0.9
0.7
$2,567
4,806
4,645
4.8
9.0
8.7
$4,131
6,149
5,822
4.0
5.9
5.6
National Average .......
660
1.2
839
0.8
3,902
7.3
5,267
5.1
TABLE IV.2—AVERAGE MANUFACTURED HOUSING PURCHASE PRICE (AND PERCENTAGE) INCREASES UNDER UNTIERED
STANDARD
[2020$]
Untiered
Single-section
$
Multi-section
%
$
%
Climate Zone 1 ................................................................................................
Climate Zone 2 ................................................................................................
Climate Zone 3 ................................................................................................
$2,567
4,806
4,645
4.8
9.0
8.7
$4,131
6,149
5,822
4.0
5.9
5.6
National Average ......................................................................................
3,902
7.3
5,267
5.1
TABLE IV.3—AVERAGE MANUFACTURED HOME LCC SAVINGS (30 YEARS) UNDER THE TIERED STANDARD BY CLIMATE
ZONE
[2020$] *
Tier 1
Single-section
Climate Zone 1 ................................................................................................
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I
$1,042 I
Tier 2
Multi-section
$1,601
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Single-section
I
$2,427 I
Multi-section
$3,844
59048
Federal Register / Vol. 86, No. 204 / Tuesday, October 26, 2021 / Proposed Rules
TABLE IV.3—AVERAGE MANUFACTURED HOME LCC SAVINGS (30 YEARS) UNDER THE TIERED STANDARD BY CLIMATE
ZONE—Continued
[2020$] *
Tier 1
Single-section
Tier 2
Multi-section
Single-section
Multi-section
Climate Zone 2 ................................................................................................
Climate Zone 3 ................................................................................................
1,143
2,560
1,705
3,550
1,156
2,311
1,983
3,056
National Average ......................................................................................
1,606
2,205
2,045
3,023
* No cities exhibit negative LCC savings in Tier 1. San Francisco is the only city that exhibits negative LCC savings in Tier 2.
TABLE IV.4—AVERAGE MANUFACTURED HOME LCC SAVINGS (30 YEARS) UNDER THE TIERED STANDARD BY CLIMATE
ZONE
[2020$] *
Tier 1
Climate zone
Single-section
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
..................
..................
..................
..................
..................
..................
..................
..................
..................
..................
..................
..................
..................
..................
..................
..................
..................
..................
..................
Tier 2
City
Multi-section
Single-section
Multi-section
Miami ......................................................................................
Houston ..................................................................................
Atlanta ....................................................................................
Charleston ..............................................................................
Jackson ..................................................................................
Birmingham ............................................................................
Phoenix ..................................................................................
Memphis .................................................................................
El Paso ...................................................................................
San Francisco ........................................................................
Albuquerque ...........................................................................
Baltimore ................................................................................
Salem .....................................................................................
Chicago ..................................................................................
Boise ......................................................................................
Burlington ...............................................................................
Helena ....................................................................................
Duluth .....................................................................................
Fairbanks ................................................................................
$460
931
1,532
1,093
1,312
1,317
616
1,493
990
543
1,089
2,422
1,475
2,443
1,682
2,503
2,441
3,917
5,851
$850
1,541
2,481
1,773
2,104
2,101
1,026
2,364
1,547
812
1,719
3,678
2,191
3,738
2,562
3,798
3,631
5,794
8,516
$1,345
2,231
3,258
2,494
2,989
2,895
665
1,491
1,106
(387)
1,074
2,002
411
2,018
890
2,193
2,431
5,013
9,307
$2,336
3,747
5,468
4,176
4,968
4,806
1,763
2,743
2,185
(68)
2,096
3,164
822
3,239
1,558
3,439
3,631
7,256
13,065
National Average ....................................................................
1,606
2,205
2,045
3,023
* Negative values in parenthesis.
TABLE IV.5—AVERAGE MANUFACTURED HOME LCC SAVINGS (30 YEARS) UNDER THE UNTIERED STANDARD BY CLIMATE
ZONE
[2020$] *
Single-section
Multi-section
Climate Zone 1 ........................................................................................................................................................
Climate Zone 2 ........................................................................................................................................................
Climate Zone 3 ........................................................................................................................................................
$2,154
863
1,942
$3,409
1,573
2,583
National Average ..............................................................................................................................................
1,733
2,585
* San Francisco is the only city that exhibits negative LCC savings in the untiered standard results.
TABLE IV.6—AVERAGE MANUFACTURED HOME LCC SAVINGS (30 YEARS) UNDER THE UNTIERED STANDARD BY CLIMATE
ZONE
[2020$] *
Climate zone
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
..................
..................
..................
..................
..................
..................
..................
..................
VerDate Sep<11>2014
City
Single-section
Miami ..............................................................................................................................................
Houston ..........................................................................................................................................
Atlanta ............................................................................................................................................
Charleston ......................................................................................................................................
Jackson ..........................................................................................................................................
Birmingham ....................................................................................................................................
Phoenix ..........................................................................................................................................
Memphis .........................................................................................................................................
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$1,142
1,971
2,931
2,217
2,680
2,592
403
1,176
Multi-section
$1,998
3,318
4,928
3,719
4,459
4,308
1,368
2,286
59049
Federal Register / Vol. 86, No. 204 / Tuesday, October 26, 2021 / Proposed Rules
TABLE IV.6—AVERAGE MANUFACTURED HOME LCC SAVINGS (30 YEARS) UNDER THE UNTIERED STANDARD BY CLIMATE
ZONE—Continued
[2020$] *
Climate zone
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
..................
..................
..................
..................
..................
..................
..................
..................
..................
..................
..................
City
Single-section
Multi-section
El Paso ...........................................................................................................................................
San Francisco ................................................................................................................................
Albuquerque ...................................................................................................................................
Baltimore ........................................................................................................................................
Salem .............................................................................................................................................
Chicago ..........................................................................................................................................
Boise ..............................................................................................................................................
Burlington .......................................................................................................................................
Helena ............................................................................................................................................
Duluth .............................................................................................................................................
Fairbanks ........................................................................................................................................
817
(585)
781
1,662
167
1,667
614
1,822
2,053
4,462
8,478
1,766
(349)
1,674
2,696
495
2,751
1,183
2,929
3,118
6,501
11,933
National Average ............................................................................................................................
1,733
2,585
* Negative values in parenthesis.
TABLE IV.7—AVERAGE MANUFACTURED HOME SIMPLE PAYBACK PERIOD UNDER THE TIERED STANDARD BY CLIMATE
ZONE
Tier 1
Single-section
Tier 2
Multi-section
Single-section
Multi-section
Climate Zone 1 ................................................................................................
Climate Zone 2 ................................................................................................
Climate Zone 3 ................................................................................................
4.7
4.5
2.9
4.5
4.4
2.1
8.5
13.3
11.5
8.5
12.5
11.3
National Average ......................................................................................
3.7
3.5
11.0
10.6
TABLE IV.8—AVERAGE MANUFACTURED HOME SIMPLE PAYBACK PERIOD UNDER THE TIERED STANDARD BY CLIMATE
ZONE
Tier 1
Climate zone
Single-section
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
..................
..................
..................
..................
..................
..................
..................
..................
..................
..................
..................
..................
..................
..................
..................
..................
..................
..................
..................
Tier 2
City
Multi-section
Single-section
Multi-section
Miami ......................................................................................
Houston ..................................................................................
Atlanta ....................................................................................
Charleston ..............................................................................
Jackson ..................................................................................
Birmingham ............................................................................
Phoenix ..................................................................................
Memphis .................................................................................
El Paso ...................................................................................
San Francisco ........................................................................
Albuquerque ...........................................................................
Baltimore ................................................................................
Salem .....................................................................................
Chicago ..................................................................................
Boise ......................................................................................
Burlington ...............................................................................
Helena ....................................................................................
Duluth .....................................................................................
Fairbanks ...............................................................................
7.4
5.1
3.7
4.6
4.1
4.1
6.5
3.7
4.9
7.2
4.8
2.9
4.3
3.0
3.9
3.0
3.0
2.0
1.4
6.5
4.6
3.3
4.2
3.8
3.8
6.0
3.5
4.6
7.0
4.5
2.0
3.2
2.1
2.8
2.1
2.1
1.4
1.0
10.8
8.8
7.3
8.4
7.6
7.8
14.5
12.6
13.3
18.5
13.9
11.5
15.8
12.1
14.4
12.2
11.4
8.4
5.7
10.5
8.6
7.1
8.2
7.5
7.6
12.9
11.4
12.1
17.1
12.7
10.7
15.1
11.2
13.6
11.3
10.7
7.8
5.3
National Average ...................................................................
3.7
3.5
11.0
10.6
TABLE IV.9—AVERAGE MANUFACTURED HOME SIMPLE PAYBACK PERIOD UNDER THE UNTIERED STANDARD BY CLIMATE
ZONE
Single-section
Climate Zone 1 ........................................................................................................................................................
Climate Zone 2 ........................................................................................................................................................
Climate Zone 3 ........................................................................................................................................................
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13.3
11.5
Multi-section
8.5
12.5
11.3
59050
Federal Register / Vol. 86, No. 204 / Tuesday, October 26, 2021 / Proposed Rules
TABLE IV.9—AVERAGE MANUFACTURED HOME SIMPLE PAYBACK PERIOD UNDER THE UNTIERED STANDARD BY CLIMATE
ZONE—Continued
Single-section
National Average ..............................................................................................................................................
11.0
Multi-section
10.6
TABLE IV.10—AVERAGE MANUFACTURED HOME SIMPLE PAYBACK PERIOD UNDER THE UNTIERED STANDARD BY CLIMATE
ZONE
Climate zone
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
City
Single-section
Multi-section
Miami ..............................................................................................................................................
Houston ..........................................................................................................................................
Atlanta ............................................................................................................................................
Charleston ......................................................................................................................................
Jackson ..........................................................................................................................................
Birmingham ....................................................................................................................................
Phoenix ..........................................................................................................................................
Memphis .........................................................................................................................................
El Paso ...........................................................................................................................................
San Francisco ................................................................................................................................
Albuquerque ...................................................................................................................................
Baltimore ........................................................................................................................................
Salem .............................................................................................................................................
Chicago ..........................................................................................................................................
Boise ..............................................................................................................................................
Burlington .......................................................................................................................................
Helena ............................................................................................................................................
Duluth .............................................................................................................................................
Fairbanks ........................................................................................................................................
10.8
8.8
7.3
8.4
7.6
7.8
14.5
12.6
13.3
18.5
13.9
11.5
15.8
12.1
14.4
12.2
11.4
8.4
5.7
10.5
8.6
7.1
8.2
7.5
7.6
12.9
11.4
12.1
17.1
12.7
10.7
15.1
11.2
13.6
11.3
10.7
7.8
5.3
National Average ............................................................................................................................
11.0
10.6
TABLE IV.11—NATIONAL AVERAGE PER-HOME COST SAVINGS *
Single-section
Multi-section
Tier 1 Standard
Lifecycle Cost Savings (30-Year Lifetime) ..............................................................................................................
Lifecycle Cost Savings (10-Year Lifetime) ..............................................................................................................
Annual Energy Cost Savings in 2020$ ...................................................................................................................
Simple Payback Period ...........................................................................................................................................
$1,606
$726
$176
3.7
$2,205
$1,015
$238
3.5
$2,045
$78
$354
11.0
$3,023
$235
$496
10.6
$1,733
($57)
$354
11.0
$2,585
$50
$496
10.6
Tier 2 Standard
Lifecycle Cost Savings (30-Year Lifetime) ..............................................................................................................
Lifecycle Cost Savings (10-Year Lifetime) ..............................................................................................................
Annual Energy Cost Savings in 2020$ ...................................................................................................................
Simple Payback Period ...........................................................................................................................................
Untiered Standard
Lifecycle Cost Savings (30-Year Lifetime) ..............................................................................................................
Lifecycle Cost Savings (10-Year Lifetime) ..............................................................................................................
Annual Energy Cost Savings in 2020$ ...................................................................................................................
Simple Payback Period ...........................................................................................................................................
* Negative values in parenthesis.
TABLE IV.12—CUMULATIVE FULL-FUEL-CYCLE NATIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS OF MANUFACTURED HOMES PURCHASED
2023–2052 WITH A 30-YEAR LIFETIME
Single-section
quadrillion Btu
(quads)
Multi-section
(quads)
Tiered Standard
Climate Zone 1 ........................................................................................................................................................
Climate Zone 2 ........................................................................................................................................................
Climate Zone 3 ........................................................................................................................................................
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0.163
0.139
0.274
0.526
0.475
0.435
Federal Register / Vol. 86, No. 204 / Tuesday, October 26, 2021 / Proposed Rules
59051
TABLE IV.12—CUMULATIVE FULL-FUEL-CYCLE NATIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS OF MANUFACTURED HOMES PURCHASED
2023–2052 WITH A 30-YEAR LIFETIME—Continued
Single-section
quadrillion Btu
(quads)
Total ..................................................................................................................................................................
Multi-section
(quads)
0.576
1.436
Climate Zone 1 ........................................................................................................................................................
Climate Zone 2 ........................................................................................................................................................
Climate Zone 3 ........................................................................................................................................................
0.276
0.249
0.370
0.542
0.489
0.439
Total ..................................................................................................................................................................
0.894
1.470
Untiered Standard
TABLE IV.13—NET PRESENT VALUE OF CONSUMER BENEFITS FOR MANUFACTURED HOMES PURCHASED 2023–2052
WITH A 30-YEAR LIFETIME AT A 7% DISCOUNT RATE *
Single-section
billion 2020$
Multi-section
billion 2020$
Tiered Standard
Climate Zone 1 ........................................................................................................................................................
Climate Zone 2 ........................................................................................................................................................
Climate Zone 3 ........................................................................................................................................................
$0.15
0.08
0.33
$0.31
(0.01)
0.18
Total ..................................................................................................................................................................
0.56
0.48
Climate Zone 1 ........................................................................................................................................................
Climate Zone 2 ........................................................................................................................................................
Climate Zone 3 ........................................................................................................................................................
$0.16
(0.06)
0.11
$0.30
(0.04)
0.16
Total ..................................................................................................................................................................
0.21
0.42
Untiered Standard
* Negative values in parenthesis.
TABLE IV.14—NET PRESENT VALUE OF CONSUMER BENEFITS FOR MANUFACTURED HOMES PURCHASED 2023–2052
WITH A 30-YEAR LIFETIME AT A 3% DISCOUNT RATE
Single-section
billion 2020$
Multi-section
billion 2020$
Tiered Standard
Climate Zone 1 ........................................................................................................................................................
Climate Zone 2 ........................................................................................................................................................
Climate Zone 3 ........................................................................................................................................................
$0.45
0.29
0.99
$1.15
0.45
0.86
Total ..................................................................................................................................................................
1.73
2.47
Climate Zone 1 ........................................................................................................................................................
Climate Zone 2 ........................................................................................................................................................
Climate Zone 3 ........................................................................................................................................................
$0.57
0.09
0.62
$1.11
0.35
0.78
Total ..................................................................................................................................................................
1.28
2.23
Untiered Standard
TABLE IV.15—EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH MANUFACTURED HOMES PURCHASED 2023–2052 WITH A 30YEAR LIFETIME
Tiered standard
Untiered standards
Pollutant
Single-section
I Multi-section
Single-section
I Multi-section
Site Emissions Reductions
CO2 (million metric tons) .................................................................................
Hg (metric tons) ...............................................................................................
NOX (thousand metric tons) ............................................................................
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0.037
12.9
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55.1
0.097
27.5
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35.7
0.058
18.8
56.2
0.0995
28.0
59052
Federal Register / Vol. 86, No. 204 / Tuesday, October 26, 2021 / Proposed Rules
TABLE IV.15—EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH MANUFACTURED HOMES PURCHASED 2023–2052 WITH A 30YEAR LIFETIME—Continued
Tiered standard
Untiered standards
Pollutant
Single-section
SO2 (thousand metric tons) .............................................................................
CH4 (thousand metric tons) .............................................................................
N2O (thousand metric tons) .............................................................................
Multi-section
8.8
1.28
0.26
Single-section
Multi-section
20.9
3.16
0.58
13.4
1.97
0.383
21.3
3.24
0.591
5.2
4.52E–04
66.6
0.48
362
0.027
3.52
2.84E–04
44.8
0.343
234
0.019
5.3
4.63E–04
68
0.49
370
0.028
60.3
0.097
94.1
21.4
365
0.61
39.3
0.059
64
13.7
236
0.40
61.5
0.1
96
21.8
373
0.62
Upstream Emissions Reductions
CO2 (million metric tons) .................................................................................
Hg (metric tons) ...............................................................................................
NOX (thousand metric tons) ............................................................................
SO2 (thousand metric tons) .............................................................................
CH4 (thousand metric tons) .............................................................................
N2O (thousand metric tons) .............................................................................
2.4
1.84E–04
30.4
0.24
155
0.013
Total Emissions Reductions
CO2 (million metric tons) .................................................................................
Hg (metric tons) ...............................................................................................
NOX (thousand metric tons) ............................................................................
SO2 (thousand metric tons) .............................................................................
CH4 (thousand metric tons) .............................................................................
N2O (thousand metric tons) .............................................................................
26.2
0.037
43
9.1
156
0.27
TABLE IV.16—NET PRESENT VALUE OF MONETIZED BENEFITS FROM GHG AND EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS
Net present value
million 2020$
Discount rate
%
Tiered standard
Single-section
GHG Reduction (using avg. social costs at 5% discount
rate) * ................................................................................
GHG Reduction (using avg. social costs at 3% discount
rate) * ................................................................................
GHG Reduction (using avg. social costs at 2.5% discount
rate) * ................................................................................
GHG Reduction (using 95th percentile social costs at 3%
discount rate) * ..................................................................
NOX Reduction ** .................................................................
SO2 Reduction ** ..................................................................
Untiered Standard
Multi-section
Single-section
Multi-section
5
254.2
587.8
382.2
600.7
3
1,074.3
2,481.0
1,614.1
2,535.2
2.5
1,763.2
4,069.6
2,648.5
4,158.4
3
3
7
3
7
3,229.0
114.5
39.9
176.2
62.0
7,454.7
233.6
81.6
373.2
132.3
4,850.7
165.0
57.5
257.2
90.8
7,617.5
243.1
84.9
389.0
137.9
* Estimates of SC-CO2 SC-CH4, and SC-N2O are calculated using a range of discount rates for use in regulatory analyses. Three sets of values are based on the average social costs from the integrated assessment models, at discount rates of 5 percent, 3 percent, and 2.5 percent.
The fourth set, which represents the 95th percentile of the social cost distributions. calculated using a 3-percent discount rate, is included to represent higher-than-expected impacts from climate change further out in the tails of the social cost distributions. The social cost values are emission year specific. See section IV.D of the August 2021 MH SNOPR for more details.
** The benefits from NOX and SO2 were based on the low estimate monetized value.
V. Sensitivity Analysis Results—
Alternate Size-Based Tier Threshold for
the Tiered Standard
For this NODA, DOE also considered
a sensitivity analysis where the tier
threshold for the tiered standard would
be based on the manufactured home size
instead of the manufacturer’s retail list
price. Specifically, the Tier 1 standard
would apply to all single-section homes,
and the Tier 2 standard would apply to
all multi-section homes. Table V.1
presents the updated shipments
breakdown for this sensitivity analysis
using the MHS 2020 PUF data set.
TABLE V.1—SHIPMENT BREAKDOWN BASED ON TIER UNDER THE ALTERNATE SIZE-BASED THRESHOLD
All climate zones
Single-section
(%)
Tier 1 Standard ............................................................................................................................
Tier 2 Standard ............................................................................................................................
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0
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(%)
0
100
Total
(%)
45
55
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TABLE V.1—SHIPMENT BREAKDOWN BASED ON TIER UNDER THE ALTERNATE SIZE-BASED THRESHOLD—Continued
All climate zones
Single-section
(%)
Total ......................................................................................................................................
The following tables present the
results for the NIA and emissions
analyses results based on the alternate
size-based tier threshold for the tiered
standard only. DOE notes that the LCC
and PBP analyses results presented in
section IV for both the tiered and
untiered standards would not change for
this sensitivity analysis. This is because
the LCC and PBP analysis evaluates the
economic impacts on individual
consumers of energy conservation
standards for manufactured housing, not
the entire nation. Further, the NIA and
Multi-section
(%)
100
Total
(%)
100
100
emissions results presented in section
IV for the untiered standard would also
not change for this sensitivity analysis
because the tier threshold does not
apply.
TABLE V.2—CUMULATIVE FULL-FUEL-CYCLE NATIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS OF MANUFACTURED HOMES PURCHASED 2023–
2052 WITH A 30-YEAR LIFETIME UNDER THE ALTERNATE SIZE-BASED THRESHOLD
Tiered standard
Single-section
(quads)
Multi-section
(quads)
Climate Zone 1 ........................................................................................................................................................
Climate Zone 2 ........................................................................................................................................................
Climate Zone 3 ........................................................................................................................................................
0.123
0.100
0.239
0.542
0.489
0.439
Total ..................................................................................................................................................................
0.462
1.470
TABLE V.3—NET PRESENT VALUE OF CONSUMER BENEFITS FOR MANUFACTURED HOMES PURCHASED 2023–2052 WITH
A 30-YEAR LIFETIME UNDER THE ALTERNATE SIZE-BASED THRESHOLD
Tiered Standard
7% discount rate
3% discount rate
Single-section
billion 2020$
Multi-section *
billion 2020$
Single-section
billion 2020$
Multi-section *
billion 2020$
Climate Zone 1 ................................................................................................
Climate Zone 2 ................................................................................................
Climate Zone 3 ................................................................................................
$0.15
0.13
0.40
$0.31
(0.03)
0.17
$0.40
0.35
1.10
$1.17
0.44
0.85
Total ..........................................................................................................
0.68
0.45
1.85
2.46
* Negative values in parenthesis.
TABLE V.4—EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS ASSOCIATED FOR MANUFACTURED HOMES PURCHASED 2023–2052 WITH A 30YEAR LIFETIME UNDER THE ALTERNATE SIZE-BASED THRESHOLD
Tiered Standard
Pollutant
Single-section
Multi-section
Site Emissions Reductions
CO2 (million metric tons) .........................................................................................................................................
Hg (metric tons) .......................................................................................................................................................
NOX (thousand metric tons) ....................................................................................................................................
SO2 (thousand metric tons) .....................................................................................................................................
CH4 (thousand metric tons) .....................................................................................................................................
N2O (thousand metric tons) .....................................................................................................................................
19.5
0.0292
10.9
7.2
1.03
0.21
56.2
0.0995
28.0
21.3
3.24
0.59
2.0
1.48E–04
25.4
0.21
127
0.011
5.3
4.63E–04
68.0
0.49
370
0.028
Upstream Emissions Reductions
CO2 (million metric tons) .........................................................................................................................................
Hg (metric tons) .......................................................................................................................................................
NOX (thousand metric tons) ....................................................................................................................................
SO2 (thousand metric tons) .....................................................................................................................................
CH4 (thousand metric tons) .....................................................................................................................................
N2O (thousand metric tons) .....................................................................................................................................
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TABLE V.4—EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS ASSOCIATED FOR MANUFACTURED HOMES PURCHASED 2023–2052 WITH A 30YEAR LIFETIME UNDER THE ALTERNATE SIZE-BASED THRESHOLD—Continued
Tiered Standard
Pollutant
Single-section
Multi-section
Total Emissions Reductions
CO2 (million metric tons) .........................................................................................................................................
Hg (metric tons) .......................................................................................................................................................
NOX (thousand metric tons) ....................................................................................................................................
SO2 (thousand metric tons) .....................................................................................................................................
CH4 (thousand metric tons) .....................................................................................................................................
N2O (thousand metric tons) .....................................................................................................................................
21.5
0.029
36.3
7.4
128
0.23
61.5
0.100
96
21.8
373
0.62
TABLE V.5—NET PRESENT VALUE OF MONETIZED BENEFITS FROM GHG AND EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS UNDER THE
ALTERNATE SIZE-BASED THRESHOLD
Tiered standard
Net present value
million 2020$
Discount rate
%
Monetary benefits
Single-section
GHG Reduction (using avg. social costs at 5% discount rate) * .................................................
GHG Reduction (using avg. social costs at 3% discount rate) * .................................................
GHG Reduction (using avg. social costs at 2.5% discount rate) * ..............................................
GHG Reduction (using 95th percentile social costs at 3% discount rate) * ................................
NOX Reduction ** .........................................................................................................................
5
3
2.5
3
3
7
3
7
SO2 Reduction ** .........................................................................................................................
Multi-section
208.5
881.3
1,446.6
2,648.9
96.4
33.5
147.2
51.7
600.7
2,535.2
4,158.4
7,617.5
243.1
84.9
389.0
137.9
* Estimates of SC-CO2 SC-CH4, and SC-N2O are calculated using a range of discount rates for use in regulatory analyses. Three sets of values are based on the average social costs from the integrated assessment models, at discount rates of 5 percent, 3 percent, and 2.5 percent.
The fourth set, which represents the 95th percentile of the social cost distributions calculated using a 3-percent discount rate, is included to represent higher-than-expected impacts from climate change further out in the tails of the social cost distributions. The social cost values are emission year specific. See section IV.D of the August 2021 MH SNOPR for more details.
** The benefits from NOX and SO2 were based on the low estimate monetized value.
VI. Sensitivity Analysis Results—
Alternate R–21 Exterior Wall Insulation
for Climate Zone 2 and 3 for Tier 2 and
Untiered Standards
For this NODA, DOE also conducted
a sensitivity analysis using less stringent
measures for exterior wall insulation for
the Tier 2 and untiered standards.
Specifically, the component
requirements proposed in the August
2021 MH SNOPR for the prescriptive
path for Climate Zone 2 and 3 require
that exterior walls be sealed using R–
20+5 exterior wall insulation. DOE
proposed this requirement based on the
2021 IECC without modification. The
‘‘+5’’ involves using ‘‘continuous
insulation,’’ which is insulation that
runs continuously over structural
members and is free of significant
thermal bridging. DOE’s proposal
requires continuous insulation only for
the exterior wall insulation component.
86 FR 47744, 47772.
Accordingly, in this NODA, DOE
considered a sensitivity analysis
wherein DOE analyzed a less stringent
exterior wall insulation requirement for
the Tier 2/untiered standard instead. In
this sensitivity analysis, DOE
considered an R–21 exterior wall
insulation as opposed to the proposed
R–20+5, which would require
continuous insulation. At R–20+5, the
incremental cost relative to the baseline
is $2,500, versus $850 for R–21. For this
analysis, DOE maintained the NODAupdated manufacturer tier threshold (at
$60,000 in real 2020$) for the tiered
standard.
The following tables present the
results based on the alternate wall
insulation for climate zone 2 and 3 for
the Tier 2 and untiered standards only.
DOE notes that the Tier 1 results
presented in section IV would not
change for this sensitivity analysis.
TABLE VI.1—AVERAGE MANUFACTURED HOUSING PURCHASE PRICE (AND PERCENTAGE) INCREASES UNDER TIER 2 OF
THE TIERED STANDARD AND THE UNTIERED STANDARD
[2020$]
Tier 2/untiered
Single-section
$
Climate Zone 1 ................................................................................................
Climate Zone 2 ................................................................................................
Climate Zone 3 ................................................................................................
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3,082
2,921
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4.8
5.8
5.5
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$4,131
4,438
4,111
4.0
4.3
4.0
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TABLE VI.1—AVERAGE MANUFACTURED HOUSING PURCHASE PRICE (AND PERCENTAGE) INCREASES UNDER TIER 2 OF
THE TIERED STANDARD AND THE UNTIERED STANDARD—Continued
[2020$]
Tier 2/untiered
Single-section
$
National Average ......................................................................................
Multi-section
%
2,830
$
5.3
%
4,222
4.1
TABLE VI.2—AVERAGE MANUFACTURED HOME LCC SAVINGS (30 YEARS) BY CLIMATE ZONE
[2020$] *
Tier 2 standard
Single-section
Untiered standard
Multi-section
Single-section
Multi-section
Climate Zone 1 ................................................................................................
Climate Zone 2 ................................................................................................
Climate Zone 3 ................................................................................................
$2,427
2,401
3,333
$3,844
3,238
4,101
$2,154
2,105
2,977
$3,409
2,826
3,639
National Average ......................................................................................
2,740
3,727
2,432
3,291
* No cities exhibit negative LCC savings in Tier 1 or Tier 2.
TABLE VI.3—AVERAGE MANUFACTURED HOME LCC SAVINGS (30 YEARS) BY CLIMATE ZONE
[2020$]
Tier 2 standard
Climate zone
Single-section
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
..................
..................
..................
..................
..................
..................
..................
..................
..................
..................
..................
..................
..................
..................
..................
..................
..................
..................
..................
Untiered standard
City
Multi-section
Single-section
Multi-section
Miami ......................................................................................
Houston ..................................................................................
Atlanta ....................................................................................
Charleston ..............................................................................
Jackson ..................................................................................
Birmingham ............................................................................
Phoenix ..................................................................................
Memphis .................................................................................
El Paso ...................................................................................
San Francisco ........................................................................
Albuquerque ...........................................................................
Baltimore ................................................................................
Salem .....................................................................................
Chicago ..................................................................................
Boise ......................................................................................
Burlington ...............................................................................
Helena ....................................................................................
Duluth .....................................................................................
Fairbanks ................................................................................
$1,345
2,231
3,258
2,494
2,989
2,895
1,987
2,718
2,353
951
2,306
3,053
1,582
3,079
2,001
3,230
3,381
5,778
9,600
$2,336
3,747
5,468
4,176
4,968
4,806
3,076
3,967
3,431
1,274
3,325
4,211
1,992
4,291
2,669
4,468
4,583
8,015
13,363
$1,142
1,971
2,931
2,217
2,680
2,592
1,718
2,402
2,061
745
2,012
2,723
1,341
2,738
1,732
2,872
3,021
5,258
8,831
$1,998
3,318
4,928
3,719
4,459
4,308
2,674
3,508
3,008
985
2,902
3,752
1,668
3,814
2,301
3,970
4,087
7,290
12,291
National Average ....................................................................
2,740
3,727
2,432
3,291
TABLE VI.4—AVERAGE MANUFACTURED HOME SIMPLE PAYBACK PERIOD BY CLIMATE ZONE
Tier 2/untiered standard
Single-section
Multi-section
Climate Zone 1 ........................................................................................................................................................
Climate Zone 2 ........................................................................................................................................................
Climate Zone 3 ........................................................................................................................................................
8.5
9.3
8.1
8.5
9.6
8.6
National Average ..............................................................................................................................................
8.5
8.9
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TABLE VI.5—AVERAGE MANUFACTURED HOME SIMPLE PAYBACK PERIOD BY CLIMATE ZONE
Climate zone
Tier 2 standard/untiered
standard
City
Single-section
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
Multi-section
Miami ..............................................................................................................................................
Houston ..........................................................................................................................................
Atlanta ............................................................................................................................................
Charleston ......................................................................................................................................
Jackson ..........................................................................................................................................
Birmingham ....................................................................................................................................
Phoenix ..........................................................................................................................................
Memphis .........................................................................................................................................
El Paso ...........................................................................................................................................
San Francisco ................................................................................................................................
Albuquerque ...................................................................................................................................
Baltimore ........................................................................................................................................
Salem .............................................................................................................................................
Chicago ..........................................................................................................................................
Boise ..............................................................................................................................................
Burlington .......................................................................................................................................
Helena ............................................................................................................................................
Duluth .............................................................................................................................................
Fairbanks ........................................................................................................................................
10.8
8.8
7.3
8.4
7.6
7.8
10.1
8.8
9.3
13.0
9.7
8.1
11.2
8.5
10.3
8.6
8.1
5.9
4.0
10.5
8.6
7.1
8.2
7.5
7.6
9.8
8.7
9.3
13.2
9.7
8.2
11.6
8.5
10.5
8.7
8.2
5.9
4.1
National Average ............................................................................................................................
8.5
8.9
TABLE VI.6—NATIONAL AVERAGE PER-HOME COST SAVINGS
Single-section
Multi-section
Tier 2 Standard
Lifecycle Cost Savings (30-Year Lifetime) ..............................................................................................................
Lifecycle Cost Savings (10-Year Lifetime) ..............................................................................................................
Annual Energy Cost Savings in 2020$ ...................................................................................................................
Simple Payback Period ...........................................................................................................................................
$2,740
$632
$331
8.5
$3,727
$788
$475
8.9
$2,432
$518
$331
8.5
$3,291
$622
$475
8.9
Untiered Standard
Lifecycle Cost Savings (30-Year Lifetime) ..............................................................................................................
Lifecycle Cost Savings (10-Year Lifetime) ..............................................................................................................
Annual Energy Cost Savings in 2020$ ...................................................................................................................
Simple Payback Period ...........................................................................................................................................
TABLE VI.7—CUMULATIVE FULL-FUEL-CYCLE NATIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS OF MANUFACTURED HOMES PURCHASED 2023–
2052 WITH A 30-YEAR LIFETIME
Single-section
(quads)
Multi-section
(quads)
Tiered Standard
Climate Zone 1 ........................................................................................................................................................
Climate Zone 2 ........................................................................................................................................................
Climate Zone 3 ........................................................................................................................................................
0.163
0.134
0.265
0.526
0.451
0.405
Total ..................................................................................................................................................................
0.562
1.382
Climate Zone 1 ........................................................................................................................................................
Climate Zone 2 ........................................................................................................................................................
Climate Zone 3 ........................................................................................................................................................
0.276
0.231
0.336
0.542
0.463
0.408
Total ..................................................................................................................................................................
0.843
1.414
Untiered Standard
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TABLE VI.8—NET PRESENT VALUE OF CONSUMER BENEFITS FOR MANUFACTURED HOMES PURCHASED 2023–2052 WITH
A 30-YEAR LIFETIME AT A 7% DISCOUNT RATE
Single-section
billion 2020$
Multi-section
billion 2020$
Tiered Standard
Climate Zone 1 ........................................................................................................................................................
Climate Zone 2 ........................................................................................................................................................
Climate Zone 3 ........................................................................................................................................................
$0.15
0.12
0.37
$0.31
0.21
0.33
Total ..................................................................................................................................................................
0.65
0.85
Climate Zone 1 ........................................................................................................................................................
Climate Zone 2 ........................................................................................................................................................
Climate Zone 3 ........................................................................................................................................................
0.16
0.10
0.29
0.30
0.20
0.32
Total ..................................................................................................................................................................
0.55
0.82
Untiered Standard
TABLE VI.9—NET PRESENT VALUE OF CONSUMER BENEFITS FOR MANUFACTURED HOMES PURCHASED 2023–2052 WITH
A 30-YEAR LIFETIME AT A 3% DISCOUNT RATE
Single-section
billion 2020$
Multi-section
billion 2020$
Tiered Standard
Climate Zone 1 ........................................................................................................................................................
Climate Zone 2 ........................................................................................................................................................
Climate Zone 3 ........................................................................................................................................................
$0.45
0.37
1.07
$1.15
0.89
1.16
Total ..................................................................................................................................................................
1.90
3.20
Climate Zone 1 ........................................................................................................................................................
Climate Zone 2 ........................................................................................................................................................
Climate Zone 3 ........................................................................................................................................................
0.57
0.43
0.96
1.11
0.83
1.10
Total ..................................................................................................................................................................
1.96
3.03
Untiered Standard
TABLE VI.10—EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS FOR MANUFACTURED HOMES PURCHASED 2023–2052 WITH A 30-YEAR LIFETIME
Tiered standard
Untiered standard
Pollutant
Single-section
I Multi-section
Single-section
I Multi-section
Site Emissions Reductions
CO2 (million metric tons) .................................................................................
Hg (metric tons) ...............................................................................................
NOX (thousand metric tons) ............................................................................
SO2 (thousand metric tons) .............................................................................
CH4 (thousand metric tons) .............................................................................
N2O (thousand metric tons) .............................................................................
23.1
0.036
12.6
8.6
1.25
0.25
52.7
0.094
26.1
20.0
3.04
0.55
33.5
0.055
17.4
12.5
1.86
0.36
53.8
0.096
26.6
20.4
3.11
0.57
5.0
4.35E–04
63.5
0.46
347
0.026
3.3
2.67E–04
41.7
0.318
219
0.017
5.1
4.45E–04
64.8
0.47
354
0.026
57.7
0.094
90
20.4
350
36.8
0.056
59
12.9
221
58.9
0.096
91
20.9
357
Upstream Emissions Reductions
CO2 (million metric tons) .................................................................................
Hg (metric tons) ...............................................................................................
NOX (thousand metric tons) ............................................................................
SO2 (thousand metric tons) .............................................................................
CH4 (thousand metric tons) .............................................................................
N2O (thousand metric tons) .............................................................................
2.35
1.79E–04
29.6
0.24
151
0.013
Total Emissions Reductions
CO2 (million metric tons) .................................................................................
Hg (metric tons) ...............................................................................................
NOX (thousand metric tons) ............................................................................
SO2 (thousand metric tons) .............................................................................
CH4 (thousand metric tons) .............................................................................
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TABLE VI.10—EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS FOR MANUFACTURED HOMES PURCHASED 2023–2052 WITH A 30-YEAR
LIFETIME—Continued
Tiered standard
Untiered standard
Pollutant
Single-section
N2O (thousand metric tons) .............................................................................
Multi-section
0.26
Single-section
0.58
Multi-section
0.38
0.59
TABLE VI.11—NET PRESENT VALUE OF MONETIZED BENEFITS FROM GHG AND EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS
Net present value
million 2020$
Discount rate
%
Monetary benefits
Tiered standard
Single-section
GHG Reduction (using avg. social costs at 5% discount
rate) * ................................................................................
GHG Reduction (using avg. social costs at 3% discount
rate) * ................................................................................
GHG Reduction (using avg. social costs at 2.5% discount
rate) * ................................................................................
GHG Reduction (using 95th percentile social costs at 3%
discount rate) * ..................................................................
NOX Reduction ** .................................................................
SO2 Reduction ** ..................................................................
Untiered standard
Multi-section
Single-section
Multi-section
5
247.8
563.0
358.0
574.9
3
1,047.3
2,375.8
1,511.8
2,426.0
2.5
1,718.8
3,896.9
2,480.4
3,979.1
3
3
7
3
7
3,147.6
111.4
38.8
171.6
60.4
7,138.5
221.8
77.5
355.4
126.0
4,543.0
153.2
53.4
239.6
84.6
7,289.0
230.8
80.7
370.5
131.4
* Estimates of SC-CO2 SC-CH4, and SC-N2O are calculated using a range of discount rates for use in regulatory analyses. Three sets of values are based on the average social costs from the integrated assessment models, at discount rates of 5 percent, 3 percent, and 2.5 percent.
The fourth set, which represents the 95th percentile of the social cost distributions calculated using a 3-percent discount rate, is included to represent higher-than-expected impacts from climate change further out in the tails of the social cost distributions. The social cost values are emission year specific. See section IV.D of the August 2021 MH SNOPR for more details.
** The benefits from NOX and SO2 were based on the low estimate monetized value.
A. Sensitivity Analysis Results—
Alternate R–21 Exterior Wall Insulation
for Climate Zone 2 and 3 Combined
With Alternate Size-Based Tier
Threshold for Tiered Standard
DOE also considered the same
sensitivity analysis using the alternate
R–21 exterior wall insulation for climate
zone 2 and 3, but using the alternate
size-based tier threshold (as discussed
in section V) instead of the
manufacturer’s retail list price tier
threshold (as discussed in section III.B).
The following tables present the
results for the NIA and emissions
analyses results based on this sensitivity
for the tiered standard only. The LCC
and PBP results for Tier 1 presented in
section IV and Tier 2/untiered standard
presented in section VI would remain
unchanged for this sensitivity analysis.
The NIA and emissions analysis results
for the untiered standard presented in
section VI would remain unchanged for
this sensitivity analysis.
TABLE VI.12—CUMULATIVE FULL-FUEL-CYCLE NATIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS OF MANUFACTURED HOMES PURCHASED
2023–2052 WITH A 30-YEAR LIFETIME UNDER THE ALTERNATE SIZE-BASED THRESHOLD
Tiered standard
Single-section
(quads)
Multi-section
(quads)
Climate Zone 1 ........................................................................................................................................................
Climate Zone 2 ........................................................................................................................................................
Climate Zone 3 ........................................................................................................................................................
0.123
0.100
0.239
0.542
0.463
0.408
Total ..................................................................................................................................................................
0.462
1.414
TABLE VI.13—NET PRESENT VALUE OF CONSUMER BENEFITS FOR MANUFACTURED HOMES PURCHASED 2023–2052
WITH A 30-YEAR LIFETIME UNDER THE ALTERNATE SIZE-BASED THRESHOLD
Tiered standard
7% discount rate
Single-section
billion 2020$
Climate Zone 1 ................................................................................................
Climate Zone 2 ................................................................................................
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Multi-section
billion 2020$
$0.15
0.13
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$0.40
0.35
Multi-section
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TABLE VI.13—NET PRESENT VALUE OF CONSUMER BENEFITS FOR MANUFACTURED HOMES PURCHASED 2023–2052
WITH A 30-YEAR LIFETIME UNDER THE ALTERNATE SIZE-BASED THRESHOLD—Continued
Tiered standard
7% discount rate
Single-section
billion 2020$
3% discount rate
Multi-section
billion 2020$
Single-section
billion 2020$
Multi-section
billion 2020$
Climate Zone 3 ................................................................................................
0.40
0.33
1.10
1.15
Total ..........................................................................................................
0.68
0.84
1.85
3.22
TABLE VI.14—EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION FOR MANUFACTURED HOMES
PURCHASED 2023–2052 WITH A 30-YEAR LIFETIME UNDER THE ALTERNATE SIZE-BASED THRESHOLD
Tiered standard
Pollutant
Single-section
Multi-section
Site Emissions Reductions
CO2 (million metric tons) .........................................................................................................................................
Hg (metric tons) .......................................................................................................................................................
NOX (thousand metric tons) ....................................................................................................................................
SO2 (thousand metric tons) .....................................................................................................................................
CH4 (thousand metric tons) .....................................................................................................................................
N2O (thousand metric tons) .....................................................................................................................................
19.5
0.0292
10.9
7.2
1.03
0.21
53.8
0.096
26.6
20.4
3.11
0.57
2.0
1.48E–04
25.4
0.21
127
0.011
5.1
4.45E–04
64.8
0.47
354
0.026
21.5
0.029
36.3
7.4
128
0.23
58.9
0.0964
91.4
20.9
357
0.59
Upstream Emissions Reductions
CO2 (million metric tons) .........................................................................................................................................
Hg (metric tons) .......................................................................................................................................................
NOX (thousand metric tons) ....................................................................................................................................
SO2 (thousand metric tons) .....................................................................................................................................
CH4 (thousand metric tons) .....................................................................................................................................
N2O (thousand metric tons) .....................................................................................................................................
Total Emissions Reductions
CO2 (million metric tons) .........................................................................................................................................
Hg (metric tons) .......................................................................................................................................................
NOX (thousand metric tons) ....................................................................................................................................
SO2 (thousand metric tons) .....................................................................................................................................
CH4 (thousand metric tons) .....................................................................................................................................
N2O (thousand metric tons) .....................................................................................................................................
TABLE VI.15—NET PRESENT VALUE OF MONETIZED BENEFITS FROM GHG AND EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS UNDER THE
ALTERNATE SIZE-BASED THRESHOLD
Tiered standard
Discount rate
%
Monetary Benefits
Net present value
million 2020$
Single-section
GHG Reduction (using avg. social costs at 5% discount rate) * .................................................
GHG Reduction (using avg. social costs at 3% discount rate) * .................................................
GHG Reduction (using avg. social costs at 2.5% discount rate) * ..............................................
GHG Reduction (using 95th percentile social costs at 3% discount rate) * ................................
NOX Reduction ** .........................................................................................................................
SO2 Reduction ** .........................................................................................................................
5
3
2.5
3
3
7
3
7
208.5
881.3
1,446.6
2,648.9
96.4
33.5
147.2
51.7
Multi-section
574.9
2,426.0
3,979.1
7,289.0
230.8
80.7
370.5
131.4
* Estimates of SC-CO2 SC-CH4, and SC-N2O are calculated using a range of discount rates for use in regulatory analyses. Three sets of values are based on the average social costs from the integrated assessment models, at discount rates of 5 percent, 3 percent, and 2.5 percent.
The fourth set, which represents the 95th percentile of the social cost distributions calculated using a 3-percent discount rate, is included to represent higher-than-expected impacts from climate change further out in the tails of the social cost distributions. The social cost values are emission year specific. See section IV.D of the August 2021 MH SNOPR for more details.
** The benefits from NOX and SO2 were based on the low estimate monetized value.
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VII. Comparison of the August 2021 MH
SNOPR and NODA Results
This section provides summary tables
that compare the results from the
August 2021 MH SNOPR to all the
scenarios presented in this NODA,
including the sensitivity analyses. As
such, each table presents results for the:
(1) August 2021 MH SNOPR analysis;
(2) NODA updated SNOPR analysis
(section IV); (3) NODA sensitivity—
decrease in shipments of about 53,329
homes (single section and multi-section
combined) for the tiered standard and
about 71,290 homes (single section and
multi-section combined) for untiered
standards based on a price elasticity of
demand of –0.48 for the 30 year analysis
period (2023–2052). 86 FR 47744,
47758. Table VII.1 presents the same
results for the NODA and sensitivity
analyses.
alternate size-based tier threshold
(section V); (4) NODA sensitivity—
alternate R–21 wall insulation for
climate zone 2 and 3 for Tier 2 and
untiered (section VI); and (5) NODA
sensitivity—alternate R–21 wall
insulation for climate zone 2 and 3 and
alternate size-based tier threshold
(section VI.A).
In the August 2021 MH SNOPR, DOE
estimated the SNOPR would result in a
TABLE VII.1—CHANGE IN SHIPMENTS FOR TIERED AND UNTIERED STANDARDS
Reduction in shipments (total)
Tiered
August 2021 MH SNOPR ........................................................................................................................................
NODA Updated SNOPR ..........................................................................................................................................
Sensitivity—Alternate Size-Based Tier Threshold ...................................................................................................
Sensitivity—Alternate R–21 Wall Insulation ............................................................................................................
Sensitivity—Alternate R–21 Wall Insulation and Size-Based Tier Threshold .........................................................
The following tables present the NPV
results for the August 2021 MH SNOPR
and all the scenarios presented in this
Untiered
53,329
45,562
38,288
36,648
31,956
71,290
70,203
N/A
53,185
N/A
NODA, including the sensitivity
analyses.
TABLE VII.2—NET PRESENT VALUE OF CONSUMER BENEFITS FOR MANUFACTURED HOMES PURCHASED 2023–2052 WITH
A 30-YEAR LIFETIME AT A 7% DISCOUNT RATE
[In billion 2020$] *
August 2021
MH SNOPR
Climate zone
Sensitivity—
alternate sizebased tier
threshold
NODA
updated
SNOPR
Sensitivity—
alternate R–21
wall insulation
Sensitivity—
alternate R–21
wall insulation
and sizebased tier
threshold
Tiered Standard (Single-section + Multi-section)
1 ...........................................................................................
2 ...........................................................................................
3 ...........................................................................................
$0.69
0.16
0.78
$0.46
0.07
0.51
$0.46
0.10
0.57
$0.46
0.33
0.70
$0.46
0.33
0.73
Total ..............................................................................
1.62
1.04
1.13
1.50
1.52
Untiered Standard (Single-section + Multi-section)
1 ...........................................................................................
2 ...........................................................................................
3 ...........................................................................................
0.70
0.06
0.61
0.46
(0.10)
0.27
N/A
N/A
N/A
0.46
0.30
0.61
N/A
N/A
N/A
Total ..............................................................................
1.36
0.63
N/A
1.37
N/A
* Negative values in parenthesis.
TABLE VII.3—NET PRESENT VALUE OF CONSUMER BENEFITS FOR MANUFACTURED HOMES PURCHASED 2023–2052 WITH
A 30-YEAR LIFETIME AT A 3% DISCOUNT RATE
[In billion 2020$] *
August 2021 MH
SNOPR
Climate zone
NODA updated
SNOPR
Sensitivity—
alternate sizebased tier
threshold
Sensitivity—
alternate R–21
wall insulation
Sensitivity—
alternate R–21
wall insulation
and sizebased tier
threshold
Tiered Standard (Single-Section + Multi-Section)
1 .......................................................................
2 .......................................................................
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TABLE VII.3—NET PRESENT VALUE OF CONSUMER BENEFITS FOR MANUFACTURED HOMES PURCHASED 2023–2052 WITH
A 30-YEAR LIFETIME AT A 3% DISCOUNT RATE—Continued
[In billion 2020$] *
August 2021 MH
SNOPR
Climate zone
NODA updated
SNOPR
Sensitivity—
alternate sizebased tier
threshold
Sensitivity—
alternate R–21
wall insulation
Sensitivity—
alternate R–21
wall insulation
and sizebased tier
threshold
3 .......................................................................
2.84
1.85
1.95
2.23
2.25
Total ..........................................................
6.40
4.20
4.31
5.10
5.07
Untiered Standard (Single-Section + Multi-Section)
1 .......................................................................
2 .......................................................................
3 .......................................................................
2.48
1.02
2.56
1.68
0.44
1.40
N/A
N/A
N/A
1.68
1.26
2.06
N/A
N/A
N/A
Total ..........................................................
6.06
3.51
N/A
4.99
N/A
TABLE VII.4—NET PRESENT VALUE OF MONETIZED BENEFITS FROM GHG AND EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS
Monetary benefits
Net present
value
million 2020$
Discount rate
%
NODA updated
SNOPR
August 2021 MH
SNOPR
Sensitivity—
alternate sizebased tier
threshold
Sensitivity—
alternate R–21
wall insulation
Sensitivity—
alternate R–21
wall insulation
and sizebased tier
threshold
Tiered Standard
GHG .................................
5
3
3
7
3
7
NOX ..................................
SO2 ..................................
$1,075.4
4,525.0
446.0
157.2
734.7
259.3
$842.1
3,555.4
348.1
121.5
549.5
194.3
$809.2
3,416.5
339.5
118.5
536.2
189.6
$810.8
3,423.1
333.1
116.3
527.0
186.4
$783.4
3,307.2
327.2
114.2
517.7
183.1
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
932.9
3,937.7
384.0
134.1
610.1
216.0
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Untiered Standard
GHG .................................
5
3
3
7
3
7
NOX ..................................
SO2 ..................................
VIII. Reopening of Comment Period
For the August 2021 MH SNOPR,
comments were originally due no later
than October 25, 2021. In light of this
NODA, DOE has determined that it is
appropriate to reopen the comment
period to allow additional time for
interested parties to prepare and submit
comments. Therefore, DOE is reopening
the comment period and will accept
comments, data, and information on the
August 2021 MH SNOPR and this
NODA on and before November 26,
2021. Accordingly, DOE will consider
any comments received by this date to
be timely submitted.
IX. Public Participation
While DOE is not requesting
comments on specific portions of the
analysis, DOE is interested in receiving
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491.7
173.3
811.0
286.3
982.9
4,149.4
408.1
142.5
646.2
228.7
comments on all aspects of the data and
analysis presented in the NODA and
supporting documentation that can be
found at: www1.eere.energy.gov/
buildings/appliance_standards/
standards.aspx?productid=64.
A. Submission of Comments
DOE will accept comments, data, and
information regarding this supplemental
notice of proposed rulemaking before or
after the public meeting, but no later
than the date provided in the DATES
section at the beginning of this proposed
rule. Interested parties may submit
comments, data, and other information
using any of the methods described in
the ADDRESSES section at the beginning
of this document.
Submitting comments via
www.regulations.gov. The
www.regulations.gov web page will
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require you to provide your name and
contact information. Your contact
information will be viewable to DOE
Building Technologies staff only. Your
contact information will not be publicly
viewable except for your first and last
names, organization name (if any), and
submitter representative name (if any).
If your comment is not processed
properly because of technical
difficulties, DOE will use this
information to contact you. If DOE
cannot read your comment due to
technical difficulties and cannot contact
you for clarification, DOE may not be
able to consider your comment.
However, your contact information
will be publicly viewable if you include
it in the comment itself or in any
documents attached to your comment.
Any information that you do not want
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to be publicly viewable should not be
included in your comment, nor in any
document attached to your comment.
Otherwise, persons viewing comments
will see only first and last names,
organization names, correspondence
containing comments, and any
documents submitted with the
comments.
Do not submit to www.regulations.gov
information for which disclosure is
restricted by statute, such as trade
secrets and commercial or financial
information (hereinafter referred to as
Confidential Business Information
(‘‘CBI’’)). Comments submitted through
www.regulations.gov cannot be claimed
as CBI. Comments received through the
website will waive any CBI claims for
the information submitted. For
information on submitting CBI, see the
Confidential Business Information
section.
DOE processes submissions made
through www.regulations.gov before
posting. Normally, comments will be
posted within a few days of being
submitted. However, if large volumes of
comments are being processed
simultaneously, your comment may not
be viewable for up to several weeks.
Please keep the comment tracking
number that www.regulations.gov
provides after you have successfully
uploaded your comment.
Submitting comments via email.
Comments and documents submitted
via email also will be posted to
www.regulations.gov. If you do not want
your personal contact information to be
publicly viewable, do not include it in
your comment or any accompanying
documents. Instead, provide your
contact information in a cover letter.
Include your first and last names, email
address, telephone number, and
optional mailing address. The cover
letter will not be publicly viewable as
long as it does not include any
comments.
Include contact information each time
you submit comments, data, documents,
and other information to DOE. No
telefacsimiles (‘‘faxes’’) will be
accepted.
Comments, data, and other
information submitted to DOE
electronically should be provided in
PDF (preferred), Microsoft Word or
Excel, WordPerfect, or text (ASCII) file
format. Provide documents that are not
secured, that are written in English, and
that are free of any defects or viruses.
Documents should not contain special
characters or any form of encryption
and, if possible, they should carry the
electronic signature of the author.
Campaign form letters. Please submit
campaign form letters by the originating
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organization in batches of between 50 to
500 form letters per PDF or as one form
letter with a list of supporters’ names
compiled into one or more PDFs. This
reduces comment processing and
posting time.
Confidential Business Information.
Pursuant to 10 CFR 1004.11, any person
submitting information that he or she
believes to be confidential and exempt
by law from public disclosure should
submit via email two well-marked
copies: One copy of the document
marked ‘‘confidential’’ including all the
information believed to be confidential,
and one copy of the document marked
‘‘non-confidential’’ with the information
believed to be confidential deleted. DOE
will make its own determination about
the confidential status of the
information and treat it according to its
determination.
It is DOE’s policy that all comments
may be included in the public docket,
without change and as received,
including any personal information
provided in the comments (except
information deemed to be exempt from
public disclosure).
X. Approval of the Office of the
Secretary
The Secretary of Energy has approved
publication of this supplemental notice
of proposed rulemaking; reopening of
comment period and notification of data
availability.
Signing Authority
This document of the Department of
Energy was signed on October 19, 2021,
by Kelly Speakes-Backman, Principal
Deputy Assistant Secretary and Acting
Assistant Secretary for Energy Efficiency
and Renewable Energy, pursuant to
delegated authority from the Secretary
of Energy. That document with the
original signature and date is
maintained by DOE. For administrative
purposes only, and in compliance with
requirements of the Office of the Federal
Register, the undersigned DOE Federal
Register Liaison Officer has been
authorized to sign and submit the
document in electronic format for
publication, as an official document of
the Department of Energy. This
administrative process in no way alters
the legal effect of this document upon
publication in the Federal Register.
Signed in Washington, DC, on October 20,
2021.
Treena V. Garrett,
Federal Register Liaison Officer, U.S.
Department of Energy.
[FR Doc. 2021–23188 Filed 10–25–21; 8:45 am]
BILLING CODE 6450–01–P
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DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION
Federal Aviation Administration
14 CFR Part 39
[Docket No. FAA–2021–0881; Project
Identifier AD–2020–01062–T]
RIN 2120–AA64
Airworthiness Directives; Gulfstream
Aerospace Corporation Airplanes
Federal Aviation
Administration (FAA), DOT.
ACTION: Notice of proposed rulemaking
(NPRM).
AGENCY:
The FAA proposes to
supersede Airworthiness Directive (AD)
2020–12–06, which applies to all
Gulfstream Aerospace Corporation
(Gulfstream) Model G–IV airplanes. AD
2020–12–06 requires replacing the nose
wheel steering servo valve manifold,
incorporating revised operating
procedures into the airplane flight
manual (AFM), doing a records
inspection for any incidents of uncommanded nose wheel steering turns,
and reporting the results to the FAA.
Since the FAA issued AD 2020–12–06,
the FAA determined that a
typographical error was made in a citing
one of the AFM documents. This
proposed AD would retain the actions of
AD 2020–12–06 and would correct the
citation to the AFM. The FAA is
proposing this AD to address the unsafe
condition on these products.
DATES: The FAA must receive comments
on this proposed AD by December 10,
2021.
ADDRESSES: You may send comments,
using the procedures found in 14 CFR
11.43 and 11.45, by any of the following
methods:
• Federal eRulemaking Portal: Go to
https://www.regulations.gov. Follow the
instructions for submitting comments.
• Fax: (202) 493–2251.
• Mail: U.S. Department of
Transportation, Docket Operations, M–
30, West Building Ground Floor, Room
W12–140, 1200 New Jersey Avenue SE,
Washington, DC 20590.
• Hand Delivery: Deliver to Mail
address above between 9 a.m. and
5 p.m., Monday through Friday, except
Federal holidays.
For service information identified in
this NPRM, contact Gulfstream
Aerospace Corporation, P.O. Box 2206,
Savannah, GA 31402; phone: (800) 810–
4853; email: pubs@gulfstream.com;
website: https://www.gulfstream.com/
en/customer-support/. You may view
this service information at the FAA,
Airworthiness Products Section,
SUMMARY:
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]]>Agencies
[Federal Register Volume 86, Number 204 (Tuesday, October 26, 2021)]
[Proposed Rules]
[Pages 59042-59062]
From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office [www.gpo.gov]
[FR Doc No: 2021-23188]
========================================================================
Proposed Rules
Federal Register
________________________________________________________________________
This section of the FEDERAL REGISTER contains notices to the public of
the proposed issuance of rules and regulations. The purpose of these
notices is to give interested persons an opportunity to participate in
the rule making prior to the adoption of the final rules.
========================================================================
Federal Register / Vol. 86, No. 204 / Tuesday, October 26, 2021 /
Proposed Rules
[[Page 59042]]
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
10 CFR Part 460
[EERE-2009-BT-BC-0021]
RIN 1904-AC11
Energy Conservation Program: Energy Conservation Standards for
Manufactured Housing: Availability of Provisional Analysis
AGENCY: Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Department of
Energy.
ACTION: Supplemental notice of proposed rulemaking; reopening of public
comment period and notification of data availability (NODA).
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
SUMMARY: The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is reopening the public
comment period for the supplemental notice of proposed rulemaking
(``SNOPR'') regarding proposals to amend energy conservation standards
for manufactured housing. DOE published the SNOPR in the Federal
Register on August 26, 2021. DOE is also publishing a notice of data
availability (NODA) for the manufactured housing energy conservation
standards rulemaking announcing the availability of updated analyses
and results, and is giving interested parties an opportunity to comment
on these analyses and submit additional data.
DATES: The comment period for the SNOPR which published on August 26,
2021 (86 FR 47744), is reopened. DOE will accept comments, data, and
information regarding the SNOPR and NODA received no later than
November 26, 2021. See section IX, ``Public Participation,'' for
details.
ADDRESSES: Any comments submitted must identify the NODA for Energy
Conservation Standards for Manufactured Housing and provide docket
number EERE-2009-BT-STD-0021 and/or regulatory information number (RIN)
number 1904-AC11. Submit electronic comments in WordPerfect, Microsoft
Word, PDF, or ASCII file format, and avoid the use of special
characters or any form of encryption.
Although DOE has routinely accepted public comment submissions
through a variety of mechanisms, including postal mail and hand
delivery/courier, the Department has found it necessary to make
temporary modifications to the comment submission process in light of
the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. DOE is currently suspending receipt of
public comments via postal mail and hand delivery/courier. If a
commenter finds that this change poses an undue hardship, please
contact Appliance Standards Program staff at (202) 586-1445 to discuss
the need for alternative arrangements. Once the Covid-19 pandemic
health emergency is resolved, DOE anticipates resuming all of its
regular options for public comment submission, including postal mail
and hand delivery/courier.
No telefacsimilies (faxes) will be accepted. For detailed
instructions on submitting comments and additional information on the
rulemaking process, see section IX.A of this document.
Docket: The docket for this activity, which includes Federal
Register notices, comments, and other supporting documents/materials,
is available for review at www.regulations.gov. All documents in the
docket are listed in the www.regulations.gov index. However, not all
documents listed in the index may be publicly available, such as
information that is exempt from public disclosure.
The docket web page can be found at www.regulations.gov/docket?D=EERE-2009-BT-BC-0021. The docket web page contains
instructions on how to access all documents, including public comments,
in the docket. See section IX.A for information on how to submit
comments through www.regulations.gov.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Mr. John Cymbalsky, U.S. Department of
Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Building
Technologies Program (EE-2J), 1000 Independence Avenue SW, Washington,
DC 20585; 202-287-1692; [email protected].
Mr. Matthew Ring, U.S. Department of Energy, Office of the General
Counsel (GC-33), 1000 Independence Avenue SW, Washington, DC 20585;
202-586-2555; [email protected].
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION:
Table of Contents
I. Background
II. Summary of the Analyses Performed by the Department of Energy
III. Summary of the Updated Inputs Since the August 2021 MH SNOPR
A. 2021 CFPB Manufactured Housing Finance Report
B. 2020 Manufactured Housing Survey
C. AEO 2021
D. 2020 Shipments
IV. Summary of Updated SNOPR Analysis Results
V. Sensitivity Analysis Results--Alternate Size-Based Tier Threshold
For the Tiered Standard
VI. Sensitivity Analysis Results--Alternate R-21 Exterior Wall
Insulation for Climate Zone 2 and 3 for Tier 2 and Untiered
Standards
A. Sensitivity Analysis Results--Alternate R-21 Exterior Wall
Insulation for Climate Zone 2 and 3 Combined With Alternate Size-
Based Tier Threshold for Tiered Standard
VII. Comparison of the August 2021 MH SNOPR and NODA Results
VIII. Reopening of Comment Period
IX. Public Participation
A. Submission of Comments
X. Approval of the Office of the Secretary
I. Background
DOE published a supplemental notice of proposed rulemaking
(``SNOPR'') proposing amended energy conservation standards for
manufactured housing on August 26, 2021 (``August 2021 MH SNOPR''). 86
FR 47744. In the August 2021 MH SNOPR, DOE's primary proposal was the
``tiered'' approach, based on the 2021 IECC, wherein a subset of the
energy conservation standards would be less stringent for certain
manufactured homes in light of the cost-effectiveness considerations
required by statute. Under the tiered proposal, two sets of standards
would be established in proposed 10 CFR part 460, subpart B (i.e., Tier
1 and Tier 2). Tier 1 would apply to manufactured homes with a
manufacturer's retail list price of $55,000 or less, and also
incorporate building thermal envelope measures based on certain thermal
envelope components subject to the 2021 IECC, but would limit the
incremental purchase price increase to an average of approximately
$750. Tier 2 would apply to manufactured homes with a manufacturer's
retail list price
[[Page 59043]]
above $55,000, and incorporate building thermal envelope measures based
on certain thermal envelope components and specifications of the 2021
IECC (i.e., the Tier 2 requirements would be the same as those under
the proposed single, ``untiered'' set of standards). 86 FR 47744,
47746.
As noted in the August 2021 MH SNOPR, several data sources that
served as inputs to the August 2021 MH SNOPR have since been updated to
include more recent data that DOE did not incorporate in its analyses
in the August 2021 MH SNOPR. 86 FR 47758. DOE sought comment on the use
of these data sources for this rulemaking. Further, based on comments
and consultations with the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban
Development (HUD), DOE conducted a sensitivity analysis using an
alternate tier threshold based on size (e.g., single-section vs. multi-
section homes) for the tiered proposal. DOE also performed a
sensitivity analysis with alternate wall insulation requirements for
climate zones 2 and 3 for both the tiered and the untiered standards.
This notice of data availability (NODA) announces the availability of
these updated inputs and corresponding analyses results and invites
interested parties to submit comments on these analyses or provide any
additional data. DOE will consider the updated inputs and corresponding
analyses, as well comments on the inputs and analyses, as part of this
rulemaking. DOE may further revise the analysis presented in this
rulemaking based on any new or updated information or data it obtains.
DOE encourages stakeholders to provide any additional data or
information that may inform the analysis.
II. Summary of the Analyses Performed by the Department of Energy
DOE conducted analyses of manufactured housing for both the August
2021 MH SNOPR and this NODA in the following areas: (1) Life-cycle cost
(``LCC'') and payback period (``PBP''), (2) national impacts, and (3)
emissions impacts.
DOE conducts LCC and PBP analyses to evaluate the economic impacts
on individual consumers of energy conservation standards for
manufactured housing. The LCC is the total consumer expense of a
manufactured home over the life of that home, consisting of total
installed cost plus total operating costs. To compute the total
operating costs, DOE discounts future operating costs to the time of
purchase and sums them over the lifetime of the product (or another
specified period).\1\ The PBP is the estimated amount of time (in
years) it takes consumers to recover the increased purchase cost of a
more-efficient manufactured home through lower operating costs.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\1\ In the August 2021 SNOPR, DOE performed LCC analyses for a
30-year period, based on the assumed lifetime of manufactured homes.
86 FR 87744, 87791-87792. Additionally, based on comments received,
to measure the LCC of the first homeowner of a manufactured home,
DOE also performed LCC analyses for a 10-year period. Id. Analyses
for both a 30-year and 10-year period are presented in this NODA.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
DOE conducts the national impact analysis (``NIA'') to assess the
national energy savings (``NES'') and the national net present value
(``NPV'') from a national perspective of total consumer costs and
savings that would be expected to result from new or amended standards.
DOE calculates the NES and NPV based on projections of annual product
shipments, along with the annual energy consumption and total
incremental cost data from the LCC analyses.
Finally, DOE estimates environmental benefits in the form of
reduced emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases associated
with electricity production. DOE bases these estimates on a 30-year
analysis period of manufactured home shipments and includes the
reductions in emissions that accrue over the 30-year home lifetime.
DOE's analysis estimates reductions in emissions of six pollutants
associated with energy savings: Carbon dioxide (CO2),
mercury (Hg), nitric oxide and nitrogen dioxide (NOX),
sulfur dioxide (SO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous
oxide (N2O). These reductions are referred to as ``site''
emissions reductions. Furthermore, DOE estimates reductions due to
``upstream'' activities in the fuel production chain. These upstream
activities comprise extraction, processing, and transporting fuels to
the site of combustion. Together, site emissions reductions and
upstream emissions reductions account for the FFC. Further, DOE
calculates the value of the reduced emissions of CO2,
CH4, and N2O (collectively, greenhouse gases or
GHGs) using a range of values per metric ton of pollutant, consistent
with the interim estimates issued in February 2021 under Executive
Order 13990. Separately, DOE also estimates the monetary benefits from
the reduced emissions of NOX and SO2.
III. Summary of the Updated Inputs Since the August 2021 MH SNOPR
As noted in the August 2021 MH SNOPR, several data sources that
served as inputs to the August 2021 MH SNOPR have since been updated to
include more recent data that DOE did not incorporate in its analyses
in the August 2021 MH SNOPR. 86 FR 47758. Table III.1 presents a
summary of the updated inputs and the analyses that are impacted
because of the updates to the data. DOE will consider the updated
inputs and corresponding analyses, as well comments on the inputs and
analyses, as part of this rulemaking. DOE may further revise the
analysis presented in this rulemaking based on any new or updated
information or data it obtains. DOE encourages stakeholders to provide
any additional data or information that may inform the analysis.
Table III.1--Updated Inputs to the Analysis Conducted for the Energy
Conservation Standards
------------------------------------------------------------------------
SNOPR NODA Analyses impacted
------------------------------------------------------------------------
2014 Consumer Finance Protection 2021 CFPB Impacts the LCC,
Bureau (CFPB) Manufactured Manufactured PBP and NIA
Housing Finance Report. Housing Finance analyses.
Report.
2019 Manufactured Housing Survey 2020 MHS.......... Determines the
(MHS). manufacturer's
retail list price
threshold for the
tiered proposal,
and affects
shipments for NIA
and emissions
analyses.
Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) 2020 AEO 2021.......... Impacts the LCC,
PBP, NIA and
emissions
analyses.
2019 Shipments.................. 2020 Shipments.... Impacts the NIA
and emissions
analyses.
2015 Energy Star Shipments...... 2020 Energy Star
Shipments.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
[[Page 59044]]
Sections III.A through III.D provide a summary of the input updates
for this NODA. Sections IV through VI provide the LCC, PBP, national
and emissions impacts results based on the input updates discussed in
this section.
A. 2021 CFPB Manufactured Housing Finance Report
The CFPB manufactured housing (``MH'') report analyzes the
differences between mortgage loans used for site-built homes, and
mortgage loans and chattel loans used for manufactured homes.\2\ For
the August 2021 MH SNOPR, the proposed manufacturer's retail list price
tier threshold for the tiered standard was developed using loan data
derived from the 2014 CFPB report,\3\ and purchase price data derived
from the MHS 2019 Public Use File (``PUF'') data.\4\ 86 FR 47744,
47760. In this NODA, DOE maintained the same analysis as the August
2021 MH SNOPR, but updated the CFPB MH report source to the latest
version, which is the 2021 CFPB MH report. Section III.B provides the
discussion regarding the updated purchase price data using MHS 2020 PUF
data.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\2\ Manufactured Housing Finance: New Insights from the Home
Mortgage Disclosure Act; https://www.consumerfinance.gov/data-research/research-reports/manufactured-housing-finance-new-insights-hmda/.
\3\ CFPB report, 2014. https://files.consumerfinance.gov/f/201409_cfpb_report_manufactured-housing.pdf.
\4\ Manufactured Housing Survey, Public Use File (PUF) 2019.
https://www.census.gov/data/datasets/2019/econ/mhs/puf.html.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
To calculate the tier threshold for the tiered standard, DOE
considered that low-income purchasers of manufactured homes would
mostly likely use chattel loans, or similar loans that are high-
priced.\5\ The 2014 CFPB MH report explicitly stated that high-priced
manufactured housing loans (including chattel loans) account for
roughly 68 percent of total manufactured housing loans.\6\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\5\ The Consumer Finance Protection Bureau (CFPB) generally
describes a higher-priced mortgage loan as a loan with an annual
percentage rate, or APR, higher than a benchmark rate called the
Average Prime Offer Rate. The requirements for this loan can be
found in 12 CFR 1026.35.
\6\ 2014 CFPB MH report; See page 6.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
The 2021 CFPB MH report no longer reports this information.
Instead, the 2021 CFPB MH report lists the proportion of loans that are
chattel loans, as well as the proportion of chattel and non-chattel
loans that are high-priced loans. The 2021 CFPB MH report states that
42 percent of all manufactured home loans are chattel loans;
accordingly, DOE determined that the remaining (58 percent) would be
non-chattel loans. Of the chattel loans, the 2021 CFPB MH report states
that 93.8 percent are high-priced loans. Similarly, of the non-chattel
loans, the 2021 CFPB MH report states that 52.4 percent are high-priced
loans. Using these data, DOE estimates that approximately 70 percent
(42% * 93.8% + 58% * 52.4% = 70%) of all manufactured housing loans
(i.e., chattel and non-chattel loans) were high-priced loans.
Accordingly, for this NODA, DOE assumed that high-priced manufactured
housing loans (including chattel loans) account for roughly 70 percent
of total manufactured housing loans. This percentage is used to
determine the updated manufacturer's retail list price tier threshold,
which is discussed further in section III.B.
Additionally, the 2021 CFPB MH report also lists the median chattel
loan term as 23 years, which differs from the 15-year value that DOE
assumed in the August 2021 MH SNOPR, which was based on suggestions
from the MH working group. 86 FR 47744, 47793. For this NODA, DOE
assumes a chattel loan term of 23 years, which is consistent with the
2021 CFPB MH report. The impact of the longer loan on the analysis is
that it increased LCC savings and decreased NPV at 3 percent discount
rate.
B. 2020 Manufactured Housing Survey
The MHS, which is sponsored by HUD and collected by the Census
Bureau, provides data on shipments, prices and characteristics of new
manufactured housing.\7\ Specifically, the MHS PUF data provide
estimates of average sales prices for new manufactured homes sold or
intended for sale by geographical region and size of home.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\7\ Manufactured Housing Survey; www.census.gov/programs-surveys/mhs.html.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
As discussed in section III.A, for the August 2021 MH SNOPR, the
purchase price data used to determine the manufacturer's retail list
price tier threshold was derived from the MHS 2019 PUF data. 86 FR
47744, 47760. In this section, DOE discusses the updates based on the
latest MHS data, which is the MHS 2020 PUF data.\8\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\8\ Manufactured Housing Survey, Public Use File (PUF) 2020.
https://www.census.gov/data/datasets/2020/econ/mhs/puf.html.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
The MHS 2020 PUF data set provides data that relates Census region
(the U.S. Census Bureau divides the country into four census regions)
with sales price. Table III.2 summarizes the average, minimum and
maximum sales prices based on census region and number of sections. In
general, the data indicate that average sales price (specifically for
single-section homes) does not differ significantly based on census
region.
Table III.2--MHS PUF 2020 Census Region and Sales Price Data
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Single-section sales price (2020$) Dual-section sales price* (2020$)
Census region -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Average Minimum Maximum Average Minimum Maximum
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Northeast............................................... $57,916 $35,600 $95,000 $107,951 $56,000 $233,000
Midwest................................................. 56,983 33,200 79,000 104,987 54,000 184,000
South................................................... 56,798 31,400 79,000 106,942 58,000 170,000
West.................................................... 61,748 34,100 117,000 118,282 64,000 236,000
All..................................................... 57,233 31,400 117,000 108,583 54,000 236,000
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* The MHS PUF 2020 dataset provides multi-section home sales price separately for dual-section homes and triple-section (or larger) homes; however the
triple-section (or larger) homes data is not differentiated by census region. Therefore, DOE only presents the dual-section data in this table, which
should generally represent the sales price for multi-section homes (triple-section or larger represent 1 percent of the market in 2020 based on the
MHS PUF 2020 dataset).
Further, the MHS also summarizes average manufactured home sales
price by state.\9\ Table III.3 presents the average sales prices in
2020 per HUD climate zone based on the MHS data discussed previously
and manufactured
[[Page 59045]]
home shipments published by Manufactured Housing Institute.\10\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\9\ Manufactured Housing Survey, Annual Tables of New
Manufactured Homes: 2014-2020; https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/econ/mhs/annual-data.html.
\10\ Manufactured Housing Institute, Annual Production and
Shipment Data; https://www.manufacturedhousing.org/annual-production/ production/.
Table III.3--MHS Average Sales Price Data by HUD Climate Zone
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Single-section Dual-section
HUD climate zone average sales average sales
price (2020$) price (2020$)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1....................................... $57,124 $107,003
2....................................... 57,290 111,208
3....................................... 56,207 109,147
------------------------------------------------------------------------
To determine the updated manufacturer's retail list price tier in a
similar manner to what was considered in the August 2021 MH SNOPR, DOE
assumed that price-sensitive, low-income purchasers rely on high-priced
loans, given the inability to qualify for conventional loans. Based on
the analysis in section III.A, the 70th percentile manufactured housing
price gives an estimate for the upper bound for a manufactured home
sales price that a price-sensitive low-income purchaser could afford.
If people typically receive one primary loan, the percentage of high-
priced loans used should be roughly equivalent to the percentage of
people receiving high-priced loans (e.g., 70 percent). DOE considered
that low-income purchasers would mainly purchase single-section homes
that are, on average, at a lower sales price than multi-section homes.
Applying the 70th percentile for single-section manufactured homes
using the MHS PUF 2020 data yields a sales price of approximately
$63,000 (in real 2020$).
Using the updated tier threshold at $63,000 (in real 2020$) and the
MHS PUF 2020 data set, DOE determined the shipment breakdown based on
tier and climate zone using the same methodology as presented in the
August 2021 MH SNOPR. 86 FR 47744, 47809-47810. This included applying
a ``substitution effect'' \11\ to 20 percent of homes within $1,000 of
the price threshold ($63,001-$64,000) that would shift to less
stringent standards, i.e., from Tier 2 to Tier 1. Id. Accordingly,
Table III.4 presents the corresponding percentage of total manufactured
homes placed/sold applicable to each tier based on climate zone and
size using the updated inputs. Compared to the August 2021 MH SNOPR, a
higher percentage of single-section manufactured home shipments are in
Tier 1, i.e., Climate zone 1 or 2: 73.85 percent in this document vs.
53.58 percent in the August 2021 MH SNOPR; Climate zone 3: 73.28
percent in this document vs. 57.32 percent in the August 2021 MH
SNOPR). Further, a portion of multi-section manufactured home shipments
will also be in Tier 1.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\11\ DOE considered that a percentage of manufactured homes
placed/sold would shift to less stringent standards, i.e., a
percentage of homes from Tier 2 would shift to Tier 1. The inclusion
of this shift in the market is to more accurately estimate energy
savings (and other downstream results).
Table III.4--Shipment Breakdown Based on Tier and Proposed Climate Zone
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Climate zone 1 or 2 Climate zone 3
---------------------------------------------------------------- Combined
Single-section Multi-section Single-section Multi-section climate zone
(%) (%) (%) (%) (%)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tier 1 Standard................. 74 5 73 3 35
Tier 2 Standard................. 26 95 27 97 65
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total....................... 100 100 100 100 100
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
C. AEO 2021
The AEO presents long-term annual projections of energy supply,
demand, and prices. The projections, focused on U.S. energy markets,
are based on results from DOE Energy Information Administration's
(``EIA'') National Energy Modeling System (``NEMS''). NEMS enables EIA
to make projections under internally consistent sets of assumptions.
DOE used AEO projections as inputs into several analyses for the August
2021 MH SNOPR, which are discussed in more detail in this section.
For the August 2021 MH SNOPR, DOE used inputs from AEO 2020 for
establishing energy prices, escalation rates, inflation rates and
housing starts. 86 FR 47744, 47794. In this NODA, DOE maintains the
same source as the August 2021 MH SNOPR, but updated the AEO source to
the latest version, which is AEO 2021.\12\ Further, DOE updated the
electricity prices from the EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook.\13\
Specifically, DOE used electricity prices from 2020 quarter 2 and
quarter 3 for summer electricity prices, and quarter 4 of 2020 and
quarter 1 of 2021 for winter electricity prices. Table III.5 presents a
comparison of the August 2021 MH SNOPR and NODA fuel prices and
escalation rates.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\12\ Energy Information Administration. Annual Energy Outlook
2021 with Projections to 2050. (2021).
\13\ Energy Information Administration. Short-Term Energy
Outlook: Real Prices Viewer. Available at: www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/realprices/.
Table III.5--AEO 2021 Fuel Prices and Escalation Rates Updates
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SNOPR NODA
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Escalation Escalation
Price rate (%) Price rate (%)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Electricity:
Summer........................ 13.3 cents/kWh....... 2.3 13.3 cents/kWh....... 2.2
Winter........................ 12.9 cents/kWh 13.2 cents/kWh
Natural gas....................... 10.3 $/MBtu.......... 2.8 10.1 $/Mbtu.......... 2.8
Liquid petroleum gas (LPG)........ 21.6 $/Mbtu.......... 4.1 17.3 $/Mbtu.......... 3.7
Oil............................... 22.8 $/Mbtu.......... 3.3 17.8 $/Mbtu.......... 3.8
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
[[Page 59046]]
To forecast the nominal price increase of manufactured homes, DOE
used the inflation forecast rate built into the AEO 2021 at 2.28
percent, compared to the August 2021 MH SNOPR inflation based on AEO
2020 at 2.33 percent. To forecast shipments into the future, DOE used a
5-year-average projection for growth in new housing starts from AEO
2021 resulting in a 0.42 percent growth per year compared to the August
2021 MH SNOPR projection for growth based on AEO 2020 at 0.3 percent
growth per year.
For the August 2021 MH SNOPR, DOE derived annual average site-to-
power plant factors based on the version of the NEMS that corresponds
to AEO 2020. DOE calculated primary energy savings (power plant
consumption) from site electricity savings by applying a factor to
account for losses associated with the generation, transmission, and
distribution of electricity. DOE computed the full-fuel cycle (``FFC'')
by encompassing the energy consumed in extracting, processing, and
transporting or distributing primary fuels, which we refer to as
``upstream'' activities. 86 FR 47744, 47814. In this NODA, DOE updated
the same inputs to AEO 2021. Table III.6 presents a comparison of the
August 2021 MH SNOPR (based on AEO 2020) and NODA (based on AEO 2021)
primary energy and FFC factors.
Table III.6--Primary Energy and FFC Factors, 2020-2050
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Dimensionless factor
Factor type Fuel type ---------------------------------------------------------------
2020 2030 2040 2050
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SNOPR
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Primary....................... Electricity..... 2.881 2.669 2.650 2.653
FFC........................... Electricity..... 1.049 1.044 1.044 1.041
Natural Gas..... 1.109 1.114 1.112 1.107
LPG/Oil......... 1.174 1.172 1.176 1.180
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NODA
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Primary....................... Electricity..... 2.845 2.714 2.698 2.677
FFC........................... Electricity..... 1.044 1.039 1.037 1.037
Natural Gas..... 1.101 1.098 1.098 1.099
LPG/Oil......... 1.169 1.171 1.179 1.185
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
For the August 2021 MH SNOPR, DOE also used the AEO 2020 to derive
the power sector marginal emissions intensity factors for
CO2, NOX, SO2, and Hg. 86 FR 47744,
47814. For this NODA, DOE updated the emissions factors to AEO 2021.
Finally, in the August 2021 MH SNOPR, DOE also proposed that under
the tiered proposal the manufacturer's retail list price thresholds
would be adjusted for inflation (for the applicable year of compliance)
using the most recently available AEO GDP deflator time series, which
at the time was AEO 2020. 86 FR 47744, 47761. As such, in Table III.7,
DOE provides the updated AEO 2021 GDP deflator series.
Table III.7--AEO 2021 GDP Deflator
------------------------------------------------------------------------
GDP deflator
------------------------------------------------------------------------
2020.................................................... 1
2025.................................................... 1.0756
2030.................................................... 1.2203
2035.................................................... 1.3702
2040.................................................... 1.5208
2045.................................................... 1.7038
2050.................................................... 1.9527
------------------------------------------------------------------------
D. 2020 Shipments
The Institute for Building Technology and Safety (``IBTS'')
provides yearly shipments of manufactured homes, which is also
published by the Manufactured Housing Institute (``MHI'').\14\ For the
August 2021 MH SNOPR, DOE considered the 2019 shipment data provided
through MHI as the latest data available at the time of the analysis.
86 FR 47744, 47798. For the August 2021 MH SNOPR, DOE only received
historical shipment data of ENERGY STAR certified manufactured homes
categorized by state from 2001 to 2015. Chapter 10 of the August 2021
MH SNOPR Technical Support Document (``TSD''). Further, DOE did not
account for ENERGY STAR homes for the no-standard shipments and
therefore excluded any ENERGY STAR shipments to avoid overestimating
energy savings. 86 FR 47744, 47808.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\14\ See Manufactured Home Shipments by Product Mix, 2019,
Manufactured Housing Institute. www.manufacturedhousing.org/annual-
production/.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
In this NODA, DOE updated the August 2021 MH SNOPR analysis by
considering the 2020 shipment data provided through MHI.\15\ Further,
DOE also received updated 2020 ENERGY STAR shipment data, albeit not
separated by size (i.e., single-section vs. multi-section). DOE notes
that there are more ENERGY STAR shipments in 2020 than projected in the
August 2021 MH SNOPR, which reduces the total number of shipments
applicable for the no-standards case and standards case compared to the
August 2021 MH SNOPR, in turn reducing the net present value (NPV) for
both the untiered and tiered standards. Finally, as discussed in
section III.C, DOE also updated the housing starts (shipment growth
rate) to be consistent with AEO 2021. Table III.8 and Table III.9
presents the single-section and multi-section manufactured home
shipments considered in the August 2021 MH SNOPR and this NODA.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\15\ See Manufactured Home Shipments by Product Mix, 2020,
Manufactured Housing Institute. www.manufacturedhousing.org/annual-
production/.
[[Page 59047]]
Table III.8--Single-Section Manufactured Homes Shipments
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
No-Standards case Tiered standard Untiered standard
Year -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SNOPR NODA SNOPR NODA SNOPR NODA
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2025.................................................... 41,304 36,855 40,610 36,388 40,041 35,642
2030.................................................... 41,923 37,632 41,225 37,155 40,640 36,395
2035.................................................... 42,558 38,429 41,853 37,938 41,255 37,164
2040.................................................... 43,198 39,243 42,481 38,744 41,876 37,950
2045.................................................... 43,853 40,074 43,128 39,565 42,507 38,754
2050.................................................... 44,514 40,927 43,768 40,403 43,153 39,579
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table III.9--Multi-Section Manufactured Homes Shipments
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
No-Standards case Tiered standard Untiered standard
Year -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SNOPR NODA SNOPR NODA SNOPR NODA
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2025.................................................... 48,268 43,045 47,247 42,069 47,247 42,038
2030.................................................... 48,999 43,952 47,961 42,965 47,961 42,924
2035.................................................... 49,738 44,886 48,685 43,869 48,685 43,836
2040.................................................... 50,489 45,836 49,421 44,800 49,421 44,768
2045.................................................... 51,249 46,803 50,163 45,752 50,163 45,710
2050.................................................... 52,019 47,798 50,919 46,727 50,919 46,681
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IV. Summary of Updated SNOPR Analysis Results
This section provides the results for the LCC and PBP, NIA and
Emissions analyses based on the updates discussed in section III.
Table IV.1--Average Manufactured Housing Purchase Price (and Percentage) Increases Under the Tiered Standard
[2020$]
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tier 1 Tier 2
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Single-section Multi-section Single-section Multi-section
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
$ % $ % $ % $ %
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Climate Zone 1.................................................. $627 1.2 $897 0.9 $2,567 4.8 $4,131 4.0
Climate Zone 2.................................................. 627 1.2 897 0.9 4,806 9.0 6,149 5.9
Climate Zone 3.................................................. 719 1.4 700 0.7 4,645 8.7 5,822 5.6
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
National Average............................................ 660 1.2 839 0.8 3,902 7.3 5,267 5.1
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table IV.2--Average Manufactured Housing Purchase Price (and Percentage) Increases Under Untiered Standard
[2020$]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Untiered
---------------------------------------------------------------
Single-section Multi-section
---------------------------------------------------------------
$ % $ %
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Climate Zone 1.................................. $2,567 4.8 $4,131 4.0
Climate Zone 2.................................. 4,806 9.0 6,149 5.9
Climate Zone 3.................................. 4,645 8.7 5,822 5.6
---------------------------------------------------------------
National Average............................ 3,902 7.3 5,267 5.1
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table IV.3--Average Manufactured Home LCC Savings (30 Years) Under the Tiered Standard by Climate Zone
[2020$] *
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tier 1 Tier 2
---------------------------------------------------------------
Single-section Multi-section Single-section Multi-section
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Climate Zone 1.................................. $1,042 $1,601 $2,427 $3,844
[[Page 59048]]
Climate Zone 2.................................. 1,143 1,705 1,156 1,983
Climate Zone 3.................................. 2,560 3,550 2,311 3,056
---------------------------------------------------------------
National Average............................ 1,606 2,205 2,045 3,023
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* No cities exhibit negative LCC savings in Tier 1. San Francisco is the only city that exhibits negative LCC
savings in Tier 2.
Table IV.4--Average Manufactured Home LCC Savings (30 Years) Under the Tiered Standard by Climate Zone
[2020$] *
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tier 1 Tier 2
Climate zone City ---------------------------------------------------------------
Single-section Multi-section Single-section Multi-section
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1....................... Miami................. $460 $850 $1,345 $2,336
1....................... Houston............... 931 1,541 2,231 3,747
1....................... Atlanta............... 1,532 2,481 3,258 5,468
1....................... Charleston............ 1,093 1,773 2,494 4,176
1....................... Jackson............... 1,312 2,104 2,989 4,968
1....................... Birmingham............ 1,317 2,101 2,895 4,806
2....................... Phoenix............... 616 1,026 665 1,763
2....................... Memphis............... 1,493 2,364 1,491 2,743
2....................... El Paso............... 990 1,547 1,106 2,185
2....................... San Francisco......... 543 812 (387) (68)
2....................... Albuquerque........... 1,089 1,719 1,074 2,096
3....................... Baltimore............. 2,422 3,678 2,002 3,164
3....................... Salem................. 1,475 2,191 411 822
3....................... Chicago............... 2,443 3,738 2,018 3,239
3....................... Boise................. 1,682 2,562 890 1,558
3....................... Burlington............ 2,503 3,798 2,193 3,439
3....................... Helena................ 2,441 3,631 2,431 3,631
3....................... Duluth................ 3,917 5,794 5,013 7,256
3....................... Fairbanks............. 5,851 8,516 9,307 13,065
---------------------------------------------------------------
National Average...... 1,606 2,205 2,045 3,023
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* Negative values in parenthesis.
Table IV.5--Average Manufactured Home LCC Savings (30 Years) Under the
Untiered Standard by Climate Zone
[2020$] *
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Single-section Multi-section
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Climate Zone 1.......................... $2,154 $3,409
Climate Zone 2.......................... 863 1,573
Climate Zone 3.......................... 1,942 2,583
-------------------------------
National Average.................... 1,733 2,585
------------------------------------------------------------------------
* San Francisco is the only city that exhibits negative LCC savings in
the untiered standard results.
Table IV.6--Average Manufactured Home LCC Savings (30 Years) Under the
Untiered Standard by Climate Zone
[2020$] *
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Climate zone City Single-section Multi-section
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1................... Miami............. $1,142 $1,998
1................... Houston........... 1,971 3,318
1................... Atlanta........... 2,931 4,928
1................... Charleston........ 2,217 3,719
1................... Jackson........... 2,680 4,459
1................... Birmingham........ 2,592 4,308
2................... Phoenix........... 403 1,368
2................... Memphis........... 1,176 2,286
[[Page 59049]]
2................... El Paso........... 817 1,766
2................... San Francisco..... (585) (349)
2................... Albuquerque....... 781 1,674
3................... Baltimore......... 1,662 2,696
3................... Salem............. 167 495
3................... Chicago........... 1,667 2,751
3................... Boise............. 614 1,183
3................... Burlington........ 1,822 2,929
3................... Helena............ 2,053 3,118
3................... Duluth............ 4,462 6,501
3................... Fairbanks......... 8,478 11,933
-------------------------------
National Average.. 1,733 2,585
------------------------------------------------------------------------
* Negative values in parenthesis.
Table IV.7--Average Manufactured Home Simple Payback Period Under the Tiered Standard by Climate Zone
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tier 1 Tier 2
---------------------------------------------------------------
Single-section Multi-section Single-section Multi-section
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Climate Zone 1.................................. 4.7 4.5 8.5 8.5
Climate Zone 2.................................. 4.5 4.4 13.3 12.5
Climate Zone 3.................................. 2.9 2.1 11.5 11.3
---------------------------------------------------------------
National Average............................ 3.7 3.5 11.0 10.6
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table IV.8--Average Manufactured Home Simple Payback Period Under the Tiered Standard by Climate Zone
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tier 1 Tier 2
Climate zone City ---------------------------------------------------------------
Single-section Multi-section Single-section Multi-section
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1....................... Miami................. 7.4 6.5 10.8 10.5
1....................... Houston............... 5.1 4.6 8.8 8.6
1....................... Atlanta............... 3.7 3.3 7.3 7.1
1....................... Charleston............ 4.6 4.2 8.4 8.2
1....................... Jackson............... 4.1 3.8 7.6 7.5
1....................... Birmingham............ 4.1 3.8 7.8 7.6
2....................... Phoenix............... 6.5 6.0 14.5 12.9
2....................... Memphis............... 3.7 3.5 12.6 11.4
2....................... El Paso............... 4.9 4.6 13.3 12.1
2....................... San Francisco......... 7.2 7.0 18.5 17.1
2....................... Albuquerque........... 4.8 4.5 13.9 12.7
3....................... Baltimore............. 2.9 2.0 11.5 10.7
3....................... Salem................. 4.3 3.2 15.8 15.1
3....................... Chicago............... 3.0 2.1 12.1 11.2
3....................... Boise................. 3.9 2.8 14.4 13.6
3....................... Burlington............ 3.0 2.1 12.2 11.3
3....................... Helena................ 3.0 2.1 11.4 10.7
3....................... Duluth................ 2.0 1.4 8.4 7.8
3....................... Fairbanks............. 1.4 1.0 5.7 5.3
---------------------------------------------------------------
National Average...... 3.7 3.5 11.0 10.6
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table IV.9--Average Manufactured Home Simple Payback Period Under the
Untiered Standard by Climate Zone
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Single-section Multi-section
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Climate Zone 1.......................... 8.5 8.5
Climate Zone 2.......................... 13.3 12.5
Climate Zone 3.......................... 11.5 11.3
-------------------------------
[[Page 59050]]
National Average.................... 11.0 10.6
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table IV.10--Average Manufactured Home Simple Payback Period Under the
Untiered Standard by Climate Zone
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Climate zone City Single-section Multi-section
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 Miami............. 10.8 10.5
1 Houston........... 8.8 8.6
1 Atlanta........... 7.3 7.1
1 Charleston........ 8.4 8.2
1 Jackson........... 7.6 7.5
1 Birmingham........ 7.8 7.6
2 Phoenix........... 14.5 12.9
2 Memphis........... 12.6 11.4
2 El Paso........... 13.3 12.1
2 San Francisco..... 18.5 17.1
2 Albuquerque....... 13.9 12.7
3 Baltimore......... 11.5 10.7
3 Salem............. 15.8 15.1
3 Chicago........... 12.1 11.2
3 Boise............. 14.4 13.6
3 Burlington........ 12.2 11.3
3 Helena............ 11.4 10.7
3 Duluth............ 8.4 7.8
3 Fairbanks......... 5.7 5.3
-------------------------------
National Average.. 11.0 10.6
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table IV.11--National Average Per-Home Cost Savings *
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Single-section Multi-section
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tier 1 Standard
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Lifecycle Cost Savings (30-Year $1,606 $2,205
Lifetime)..............................
Lifecycle Cost Savings (10-Year $726 $1,015
Lifetime)..............................
Annual Energy Cost Savings in 2020$..... $176 $238
Simple Payback Period................... 3.7 3.5
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tier 2 Standard
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Lifecycle Cost Savings (30-Year $2,045 $3,023
Lifetime)..............................
Lifecycle Cost Savings (10-Year $78 $235
Lifetime)..............................
Annual Energy Cost Savings in 2020$..... $354 $496
Simple Payback Period................... 11.0 10.6
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Untiered Standard
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Lifecycle Cost Savings (30-Year $1,733 $2,585
Lifetime)..............................
Lifecycle Cost Savings (10-Year ($57) $50
Lifetime)..............................
Annual Energy Cost Savings in 2020$..... $354 $496
Simple Payback Period................... 11.0 10.6
------------------------------------------------------------------------
* Negative values in parenthesis.
Table IV.12--Cumulative Full-Fuel-Cycle National Energy Savings of
Manufactured Homes Purchased 2023-2052 with a 30-Year Lifetime
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Single-section
quadrillion Multi-section
Btu (quads) (quads)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tiered Standard
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Climate Zone 1.......................... 0.163 0.526
Climate Zone 2.......................... 0.139 0.475
Climate Zone 3.......................... 0.274 0.435
-------------------------------
[[Page 59051]]
Total............................... 0.576 1.436
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Untiered Standard
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Climate Zone 1.......................... 0.276 0.542
Climate Zone 2.......................... 0.249 0.489
Climate Zone 3.......................... 0.370 0.439
-------------------------------
Total............................... 0.894 1.470
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table IV.13--Net Present Value of Consumer Benefits for Manufactured
Homes Purchased 2023-2052 With a 30-Year Lifetime at a 7% Discount Rate
*
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Single-section Multi-section
billion 2020$ billion 2020$
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tiered Standard
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Climate Zone 1.......................... $0.15 $0.31
Climate Zone 2.......................... 0.08 (0.01)
Climate Zone 3.......................... 0.33 0.18
-------------------------------
Total............................... 0.56 0.48
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Untiered Standard
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Climate Zone 1.......................... $0.16 $0.30
Climate Zone 2.......................... (0.06) (0.04)
Climate Zone 3.......................... 0.11 0.16
-------------------------------
Total............................... 0.21 0.42
------------------------------------------------------------------------
* Negative values in parenthesis.
Table IV.14--Net Present Value of Consumer Benefits for Manufactured
Homes Purchased 2023-2052 With a 30-Year Lifetime at a 3% Discount Rate
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Single-section Multi-section
billion 2020$ billion 2020$
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tiered Standard
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Climate Zone 1.......................... $0.45 $1.15
Climate Zone 2.......................... 0.29 0.45
Climate Zone 3.......................... 0.99 0.86
-------------------------------
Total............................... 1.73 2.47
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Untiered Standard
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Climate Zone 1.......................... $0.57 $1.11
Climate Zone 2.......................... 0.09 0.35
Climate Zone 3.......................... 0.62 0.78
-------------------------------
Total............................... 1.28 2.23
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table IV.15--Emissions Reductions Associated With Manufactured Homes Purchased 2023-2052 With a 30-Year Lifetime
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tiered standard Untiered standards
Pollutant ---------------------------------------------------------------
Single-section Multi-section Single-section Multi-section
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Site Emissions Reductions
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CO2 (million metric tons)....................... 23.7 55.1 35.7 56.2
Hg (metric tons)................................ 0.037 0.097 0.058 0.0995
NOX (thousand metric tons)...................... 12.9 27.5 18.8 28.0
[[Page 59052]]
SO2 (thousand metric tons)...................... 8.8 20.9 13.4 21.3
CH4 (thousand metric tons)...................... 1.28 3.16 1.97 3.24
N2O (thousand metric tons)...................... 0.26 0.58 0.383 0.591
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Upstream Emissions Reductions
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CO2 (million metric tons)....................... 2.4 5.2 3.52 5.3
Hg (metric tons)................................ 1.84E-04 4.52E-04 2.84E-04 4.63E-04
NOX (thousand metric tons)...................... 30.4 66.6 44.8 68
SO2 (thousand metric tons)...................... 0.24 0.48 0.343 0.49
CH4 (thousand metric tons)...................... 155 362 234 370
N2O (thousand metric tons)...................... 0.013 0.027 0.019 0.028
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total Emissions Reductions
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CO2 (million metric tons)....................... 26.2 60.3 39.3 61.5
Hg (metric tons)................................ 0.037 0.097 0.059 0.1
NOX (thousand metric tons)...................... 43 94.1 64 96
SO2 (thousand metric tons)...................... 9.1 21.4 13.7 21.8
CH4 (thousand metric tons)...................... 156 365 236 373
N2O (thousand metric tons)...................... 0.27 0.61 0.40 0.62
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table IV.16--Net Present Value of Monetized Benefits From GHG and Emissions Reductions
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Net present value million 2020$
---------------------------------------------------------------
Discount rate Tiered standard Untiered Standard
% ---------------------------------------------------------------
Single-section Multi-section Single-section Multi-section
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GHG Reduction (using avg. social 5 254.2 587.8 382.2 600.7
costs at 5% discount rate) *...
GHG Reduction (using avg. social 3 1,074.3 2,481.0 1,614.1 2,535.2
costs at 3% discount rate) *...
GHG Reduction (using avg. social 2.5 1,763.2 4,069.6 2,648.5 4,158.4
costs at 2.5% discount rate) *.
GHG Reduction (using 95th 3 3,229.0 7,454.7 4,850.7 7,617.5
percentile social costs at 3%
discount rate) *...............
NOX Reduction **................ 3 114.5 233.6 165.0 243.1
7 39.9 81.6 57.5 84.9
SO2 Reduction **................ 3 176.2 373.2 257.2 389.0
7 62.0 132.3 90.8 137.9
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* Estimates of SC-CO2 SC-CH4, and SC-N2O are calculated using a range of discount rates for use in regulatory
analyses. Three sets of values are based on the average social costs from the integrated assessment models, at
discount rates of 5 percent, 3 percent, and 2.5 percent. The fourth set, which represents the 95th percentile
of the social cost distributions. calculated using a 3-percent discount rate, is included to represent higher-
than-expected impacts from climate change further out in the tails of the social cost distributions. The
social cost values are emission year specific. See section IV.D of the August 2021 MH SNOPR for more details.
** The benefits from NOX and SO2 were based on the low estimate monetized value.
V. Sensitivity Analysis Results--Alternate Size-Based Tier Threshold
for the Tiered Standard
For this NODA, DOE also considered a sensitivity analysis where the
tier threshold for the tiered standard would be based on the
manufactured home size instead of the manufacturer's retail list price.
Specifically, the Tier 1 standard would apply to all single-section
homes, and the Tier 2 standard would apply to all multi-section homes.
Table V.1 presents the updated shipments breakdown for this sensitivity
analysis using the MHS 2020 PUF data set.
Table V.1--Shipment Breakdown Based on Tier Under the Alternate Size-Based Threshold
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
All climate zones
-----------------------------------------------
Single-section Multi-section
(%) (%) Total (%)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tier 1 Standard................................................. 100 0 45
Tier 2 Standard................................................. 0 100 55
-----------------------------------------------
[[Page 59053]]
Total....................................................... 100 100 100
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The following tables present the results for the NIA and emissions
analyses results based on the alternate size-based tier threshold for
the tiered standard only. DOE notes that the LCC and PBP analyses
results presented in section IV for both the tiered and untiered
standards would not change for this sensitivity analysis. This is
because the LCC and PBP analysis evaluates the economic impacts on
individual consumers of energy conservation standards for manufactured
housing, not the entire nation. Further, the NIA and emissions results
presented in section IV for the untiered standard would also not change
for this sensitivity analysis because the tier threshold does not
apply.
Table V.2--Cumulative Full-Fuel-Cycle National Energy Savings of
Manufactured Homes Purchased 2023-2052 With a 30-Year Lifetime Under the
Alternate Size-Based Threshold
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tiered standard
-------------------------------
Single-section Multi-section
(quads) (quads)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Climate Zone 1.......................... 0.123 0.542
Climate Zone 2.......................... 0.100 0.489
Climate Zone 3.......................... 0.239 0.439
-------------------------------
Total............................... 0.462 1.470
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table V.3--Net Present Value of Consumer Benefits for Manufactured Homes Purchased 2023-2052 With a 30-Year
Lifetime Under the Alternate Size-Based Threshold
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tiered Standard
---------------------------------------------------------------
7% discount rate 3% discount rate
---------------------------------------------------------------
Multi-section Multi-section
Single-section * billion Single-section * billion
billion 2020$ 2020$ billion 2020$ 2020$
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Climate Zone 1.................................. $0.15 $0.31 $0.40 $1.17
Climate Zone 2.................................. 0.13 (0.03) 0.35 0.44
Climate Zone 3.................................. 0.40 0.17 1.10 0.85
---------------------------------------------------------------
Total....................................... 0.68 0.45 1.85 2.46
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* Negative values in parenthesis.
Table V.4--Emissions Reductions Associated for Manufactured Homes
Purchased 2023-2052 With a 30-Year Lifetime Under the Alternate Size-
Based Threshold
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tiered Standard
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pollutant Single-section Multi-section
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Site Emissions Reductions
------------------------------------------------------------------------
CO2 (million metric tons)............... 19.5 56.2
Hg (metric tons)........................ 0.0292 0.0995
NOX (thousand metric tons).............. 10.9 28.0
SO2 (thousand metric tons).............. 7.2 21.3
CH4 (thousand metric tons).............. 1.03 3.24
N2O (thousand metric tons).............. 0.21 0.59
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Upstream Emissions Reductions
------------------------------------------------------------------------
CO2 (million metric tons)............... 2.0 5.3
Hg (metric tons)........................ 1.48E-04 4.63E-04
NOX (thousand metric tons).............. 25.4 68.0
SO2 (thousand metric tons).............. 0.21 0.49
CH4 (thousand metric tons).............. 127 370
N2O (thousand metric tons).............. 0.011 0.028
------------------------------------------------------------------------
[[Page 59054]]
Total Emissions Reductions
------------------------------------------------------------------------
CO2 (million metric tons)............... 21.5 61.5
Hg (metric tons)........................ 0.029 0.100
NOX (thousand metric tons).............. 36.3 96
SO2 (thousand metric tons).............. 7.4 21.8
CH4 (thousand metric tons).............. 128 373
N2O (thousand metric tons).............. 0.23 0.62
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table V.5--Net Present Value of Monetized Benefits From GHG and Emissions Reductions Under the Alternate Size-
Based Threshold
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tiered standard
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Net present value million
Discount rate 2020$
Monetary benefits % -------------------------------
Single-section Multi-section
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GHG Reduction (using avg. social costs at 5% discount rate) *... 5 208.5 600.7
GHG Reduction (using avg. social costs at 3% discount rate) *... 3 881.3 2,535.2
GHG Reduction (using avg. social costs at 2.5% discount rate) *. 2.5 1,446.6 4,158.4
GHG Reduction (using 95th percentile social costs at 3% discount 3 2,648.9 7,617.5
rate) *........................................................
NOX Reduction **................................................ 3 96.4 243.1
7 33.5 84.9
SO2 Reduction **................................................ 3 147.2 389.0
7 51.7 137.9
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* Estimates of SC-CO2 SC-CH4, and SC-N2O are calculated using a range of discount rates for use in regulatory
analyses. Three sets of values are based on the average social costs from the integrated assessment models, at
discount rates of 5 percent, 3 percent, and 2.5 percent. The fourth set, which represents the 95th percentile
of the social cost distributions calculated using a 3-percent discount rate, is included to represent higher-
than-expected impacts from climate change further out in the tails of the social cost distributions. The
social cost values are emission year specific. See section IV.D of the August 2021 MH SNOPR for more details.
** The benefits from NOX and SO2 were based on the low estimate monetized value.
VI. Sensitivity Analysis Results--Alternate R-21 Exterior Wall
Insulation for Climate Zone 2 and 3 for Tier 2 and Untiered Standards
For this NODA, DOE also conducted a sensitivity analysis using less
stringent measures for exterior wall insulation for the Tier 2 and
untiered standards. Specifically, the component requirements proposed
in the August 2021 MH SNOPR for the prescriptive path for Climate Zone
2 and 3 require that exterior walls be sealed using R-20+5 exterior
wall insulation. DOE proposed this requirement based on the 2021 IECC
without modification. The ``+5'' involves using ``continuous
insulation,'' which is insulation that runs continuously over
structural members and is free of significant thermal bridging. DOE's
proposal requires continuous insulation only for the exterior wall
insulation component. 86 FR 47744, 47772.
Accordingly, in this NODA, DOE considered a sensitivity analysis
wherein DOE analyzed a less stringent exterior wall insulation
requirement for the Tier 2/untiered standard instead. In this
sensitivity analysis, DOE considered an R-21 exterior wall insulation
as opposed to the proposed R-20+5, which would require continuous
insulation. At R-20+5, the incremental cost relative to the baseline is
$2,500, versus $850 for R-21. For this analysis, DOE maintained the
NODA-updated manufacturer tier threshold (at $60,000 in real 2020$) for
the tiered standard.
The following tables present the results based on the alternate
wall insulation for climate zone 2 and 3 for the Tier 2 and untiered
standards only. DOE notes that the Tier 1 results presented in section
IV would not change for this sensitivity analysis.
Table VI.1--Average Manufactured Housing Purchase Price (and Percentage) Increases Under Tier 2 of the Tiered
Standard and the Untiered Standard
[2020$]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tier 2/untiered
---------------------------------------------------------------
Single-section Multi-section
---------------------------------------------------------------
$ % $ %
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Climate Zone 1.................................. $2,567 4.8 $4,131 4.0
Climate Zone 2.................................. 3,082 5.8 4,438 4.3
Climate Zone 3.................................. 2,921 5.5 4,111 4.0
---------------------------------------------------------------
[[Page 59055]]
National Average............................ 2,830 5.3 4,222 4.1
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table VI.2--Average Manufactured Home LCC Savings (30 Years) by Climate Zone
[2020$] *
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tier 2 standard Untiered standard
---------------------------------------------------------------
Single-section Multi-section Single-section Multi-section
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Climate Zone 1.................................. $2,427 $3,844 $2,154 $3,409
Climate Zone 2.................................. 2,401 3,238 2,105 2,826
Climate Zone 3.................................. 3,333 4,101 2,977 3,639
---------------------------------------------------------------
National Average............................ 2,740 3,727 2,432 3,291
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* No cities exhibit negative LCC savings in Tier 1 or Tier 2.
Table VI.3--Average Manufactured Home LCC Savings (30 Years) by Climate Zone
[2020$]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tier 2 standard Untiered standard
Climate zone City ---------------------------------------------------------------
Single-section Multi-section Single-section Multi-section
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1....................... Miami................. $1,345 $2,336 $1,142 $1,998
1....................... Houston............... 2,231 3,747 1,971 3,318
1....................... Atlanta............... 3,258 5,468 2,931 4,928
1....................... Charleston............ 2,494 4,176 2,217 3,719
1....................... Jackson............... 2,989 4,968 2,680 4,459
1....................... Birmingham............ 2,895 4,806 2,592 4,308
2....................... Phoenix............... 1,987 3,076 1,718 2,674
2....................... Memphis............... 2,718 3,967 2,402 3,508
2....................... El Paso............... 2,353 3,431 2,061 3,008
2....................... San Francisco......... 951 1,274 745 985
2....................... Albuquerque........... 2,306 3,325 2,012 2,902
3....................... Baltimore............. 3,053 4,211 2,723 3,752
3....................... Salem................. 1,582 1,992 1,341 1,668
3....................... Chicago............... 3,079 4,291 2,738 3,814
3....................... Boise................. 2,001 2,669 1,732 2,301
3....................... Burlington............ 3,230 4,468 2,872 3,970
3....................... Helena................ 3,381 4,583 3,021 4,087
3....................... Duluth................ 5,778 8,015 5,258 7,290
3....................... Fairbanks............. 9,600 13,363 8,831 12,291
---------------------------------------------------------------
National Average...... 2,740 3,727 2,432 3,291
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table VI.4--Average Manufactured Home Simple Payback Period by Climate
Zone
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tier 2/untiered standard
-------------------------------
Single-section Multi-section
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Climate Zone 1.......................... 8.5 8.5
Climate Zone 2.......................... 9.3 9.6
Climate Zone 3.......................... 8.1 8.6
-------------------------------
National Average.................... 8.5 8.9
------------------------------------------------------------------------
[[Page 59056]]
Table VI.5--Average Manufactured Home Simple Payback Period by Climate
Zone
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tier 2 standard/untiered
standard
Climate zone City -------------------------------
Single-section Multi-section
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 Miami............. 10.8 10.5
1 Houston........... 8.8 8.6
1 Atlanta........... 7.3 7.1
1 Charleston........ 8.4 8.2
1 Jackson........... 7.6 7.5
1 Birmingham........ 7.8 7.6
2 Phoenix........... 10.1 9.8
2 Memphis........... 8.8 8.7
2 El Paso........... 9.3 9.3
2 San Francisco..... 13.0 13.2
2 Albuquerque....... 9.7 9.7
3 Baltimore......... 8.1 8.2
3 Salem............. 11.2 11.6
3 Chicago........... 8.5 8.5
3 Boise............. 10.3 10.5
3 Burlington........ 8.6 8.7
3 Helena............ 8.1 8.2
3 Duluth............ 5.9 5.9
3 Fairbanks......... 4.0 4.1
-------------------------------
National Average.. 8.5 8.9
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table VI.6--National Average Per-Home Cost Savings
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Single-section Multi-section
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tier 2 Standard
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Lifecycle Cost Savings (30-Year $2,740 $3,727
Lifetime)..............................
Lifecycle Cost Savings (10-Year $632 $788
Lifetime)..............................
Annual Energy Cost Savings in 2020$..... $331 $475
Simple Payback Period................... 8.5 8.9
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Untiered Standard
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Lifecycle Cost Savings (30-Year $2,432 $3,291
Lifetime)..............................
Lifecycle Cost Savings (10-Year $518 $622
Lifetime)..............................
Annual Energy Cost Savings in 2020$..... $331 $475
Simple Payback Period................... 8.5 8.9
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table VI.7--Cumulative Full-Fuel-Cycle National Energy Savings of
Manufactured Homes Purchased 2023-2052 with a 30-Year Lifetime
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Single-section Multi-section
(quads) (quads)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tiered Standard
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Climate Zone 1.......................... 0.163 0.526
Climate Zone 2.......................... 0.134 0.451
Climate Zone 3.......................... 0.265 0.405
-------------------------------
Total............................... 0.562 1.382
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Untiered Standard
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Climate Zone 1.......................... 0.276 0.542
Climate Zone 2.......................... 0.231 0.463
Climate Zone 3.......................... 0.336 0.408
-------------------------------
Total............................... 0.843 1.414
------------------------------------------------------------------------
[[Page 59057]]
Table VI.8--Net Present Value of Consumer Benefits for Manufactured
Homes Purchased 2023-2052 With a 30-Year Lifetime at a 7% Discount Rate
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Single-section Multi-section
billion 2020$ billion 2020$
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tiered Standard
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Climate Zone 1.......................... $0.15 $0.31
Climate Zone 2.......................... 0.12 0.21
Climate Zone 3.......................... 0.37 0.33
-------------------------------
Total............................... 0.65 0.85
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Untiered Standard
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Climate Zone 1.......................... 0.16 0.30
Climate Zone 2.......................... 0.10 0.20
Climate Zone 3.......................... 0.29 0.32
-------------------------------
Total............................... 0.55 0.82
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table VI.9--Net Present Value of Consumer Benefits for Manufactured
Homes Purchased 2023-2052 With a 30-Year Lifetime at a 3% Discount Rate
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Single-section Multi-section
billion 2020$ billion 2020$
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tiered Standard
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Climate Zone 1.......................... $0.45 $1.15
Climate Zone 2.......................... 0.37 0.89
Climate Zone 3.......................... 1.07 1.16
-------------------------------
Total............................... 1.90 3.20
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Untiered Standard
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Climate Zone 1.......................... 0.57 1.11
Climate Zone 2.......................... 0.43 0.83
Climate Zone 3.......................... 0.96 1.10
-------------------------------
Total............................... 1.96 3.03
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table VI.10--Emissions Reductions for Manufactured Homes Purchased 2023-2052 With a 30-Year Lifetime
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tiered standard Untiered standard
Pollutant ---------------------------------------------------------------
Single-section Multi-section Single-section Multi-section
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Site Emissions Reductions
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CO2 (million metric tons)....................... 23.1 52.7 33.5 53.8
Hg (metric tons)................................ 0.036 0.094 0.055 0.096
NOX (thousand metric tons)...................... 12.6 26.1 17.4 26.6
SO2 (thousand metric tons)...................... 8.6 20.0 12.5 20.4
CH4 (thousand metric tons)...................... 1.25 3.04 1.86 3.11
N2O (thousand metric tons)...................... 0.25 0.55 0.36 0.57
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Upstream Emissions Reductions
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CO2 (million metric tons)....................... 2.35 5.0 3.3 5.1
Hg (metric tons)................................ 1.79E-04 4.35E-04 2.67E-04 4.45E-04
NOX (thousand metric tons)...................... 29.6 63.5 41.7 64.8
SO2 (thousand metric tons)...................... 0.24 0.46 0.318 0.47
CH4 (thousand metric tons)...................... 151 347 219 354
N2O (thousand metric tons)...................... 0.013 0.026 0.017 0.026
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total Emissions Reductions
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CO2 (million metric tons)....................... 25.5 57.7 36.8 58.9
Hg (metric tons)................................ 0.036 0.094 0.056 0.096
NOX (thousand metric tons)...................... 42 90 59 91
SO2 (thousand metric tons)...................... 8.9 20.4 12.9 20.9
CH4 (thousand metric tons)...................... 152 350 221 357
[[Page 59058]]
N2O (thousand metric tons)...................... 0.26 0.58 0.38 0.59
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table VI.11--Net Present Value of Monetized Benefits From GHG and Emissions Reductions
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Net present value million 2020$
---------------------------------------------------------------
Monetary benefits Discount rate Tiered standard Untiered standard
% ---------------------------------------------------------------
Single-section Multi-section Single-section Multi-section
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GHG Reduction (using avg. social 5 247.8 563.0 358.0 574.9
costs at 5% discount rate) *...
GHG Reduction (using avg. social 3 1,047.3 2,375.8 1,511.8 2,426.0
costs at 3% discount rate) *...
GHG Reduction (using avg. social 2.5 1,718.8 3,896.9 2,480.4 3,979.1
costs at 2.5% discount rate) *.
GHG Reduction (using 95th 3 3,147.6 7,138.5 4,543.0 7,289.0
percentile social costs at 3%
discount rate) *...............
NOX Reduction **................ 3 111.4 221.8 153.2 230.8
7 38.8 77.5 53.4 80.7
SO2 Reduction **................ 3 171.6 355.4 239.6 370.5
7 60.4 126.0 84.6 131.4
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* Estimates of SC-CO2 SC-CH4, and SC-N2O are calculated using a range of discount rates for use in regulatory
analyses. Three sets of values are based on the average social costs from the integrated assessment models, at
discount rates of 5 percent, 3 percent, and 2.5 percent. The fourth set, which represents the 95th percentile
of the social cost distributions calculated using a 3-percent discount rate, is included to represent higher-
than-expected impacts from climate change further out in the tails of the social cost distributions. The
social cost values are emission year specific. See section IV.D of the August 2021 MH SNOPR for more details.
** The benefits from NOX and SO2 were based on the low estimate monetized value.
A. Sensitivity Analysis Results--Alternate R-21 Exterior Wall
Insulation for Climate Zone 2 and 3 Combined With Alternate Size-Based
Tier Threshold for Tiered Standard
DOE also considered the same sensitivity analysis using the
alternate R-21 exterior wall insulation for climate zone 2 and 3, but
using the alternate size-based tier threshold (as discussed in section
V) instead of the manufacturer's retail list price tier threshold (as
discussed in section III.B).
The following tables present the results for the NIA and emissions
analyses results based on this sensitivity for the tiered standard
only. The LCC and PBP results for Tier 1 presented in section IV and
Tier 2/untiered standard presented in section VI would remain unchanged
for this sensitivity analysis. The NIA and emissions analysis results
for the untiered standard presented in section VI would remain
unchanged for this sensitivity analysis.
Table VI.12--Cumulative Full-Fuel-Cycle National Energy Savings of
Manufactured Homes Purchased 2023-2052 With a 30-Year Lifetime Under the
Alternate Size-Based Threshold
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tiered standard
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Single-section Multi-section
(quads) (quads)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Climate Zone 1.......................... 0.123 0.542
Climate Zone 2.......................... 0.100 0.463
Climate Zone 3.......................... 0.239 0.408
-------------------------------
Total............................... 0.462 1.414
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table VI.13--Net Present Value of Consumer Benefits for Manufactured Homes Purchased 2023-2052 With a 30-Year
Lifetime Under the Alternate Size-Based Threshold
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tiered standard 7% discount rate 3% discount rate
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Single-section Multi-section Single-section Multi-section
billion 2020$ billion 2020$ billion 2020$ billion 2020$
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Climate Zone 1.................................. $0.15 $0.31 $0.40 $1.17
Climate Zone 2.................................. 0.13 0.20 0.35 0.89
[[Page 59059]]
Climate Zone 3.................................. 0.40 0.33 1.10 1.15
---------------------------------------------------------------
Total....................................... 0.68 0.84 1.85 3.22
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table VI.14--Emissions Reductions Associated With Electricity Production
for Manufactured Homes Purchased 2023-2052 With a 30-Year Lifetime Under
the Alternate Size-Based Threshold
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tiered standard
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pollutant Single-section Multi-section
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Site Emissions Reductions
------------------------------------------------------------------------
CO2 (million metric tons)............... 19.5 53.8
Hg (metric tons)........................ 0.0292 0.096
NOX (thousand metric tons).............. 10.9 26.6
SO2 (thousand metric tons).............. 7.2 20.4
CH4 (thousand metric tons).............. 1.03 3.11
N2O (thousand metric tons).............. 0.21 0.57
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Upstream Emissions Reductions
------------------------------------------------------------------------
CO2 (million metric tons)............... 2.0 5.1
Hg (metric tons)........................ 1.48E-04 4.45E-04
NOX (thousand metric tons).............. 25.4 64.8
SO2 (thousand metric tons).............. 0.21 0.47
CH4 (thousand metric tons).............. 127 354
N2O (thousand metric tons).............. 0.011 0.026
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total Emissions Reductions
------------------------------------------------------------------------
CO2 (million metric tons)............... 21.5 58.9
Hg (metric tons)........................ 0.029 0.0964
NOX (thousand metric tons).............. 36.3 91.4
SO2 (thousand metric tons).............. 7.4 20.9
CH4 (thousand metric tons).............. 128 357
N2O (thousand metric tons).............. 0.23 0.59
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table VI.15--Net Present Value of Monetized Benefits From GHG and Emissions Reductions Under the Alternate Size-
Based Threshold
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tiered standard
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Net present value million
Discount rate 2020$
Monetary Benefits % -------------------------------
Single-section Multi-section
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GHG Reduction (using avg. social costs at 5% discount rate) *... 5 208.5 574.9
GHG Reduction (using avg. social costs at 3% discount rate) *... 3 881.3 2,426.0
GHG Reduction (using avg. social costs at 2.5% discount rate) *. 2.5 1,446.6 3,979.1
GHG Reduction (using 95th percentile social costs at 3% discount 3 2,648.9 7,289.0
rate) *........................................................
NOX Reduction **................................................ 3 96.4 230.8
7 33.5 80.7
SO2 Reduction **................................................ 3 147.2 370.5
7 51.7 131.4
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* Estimates of SC-CO2 SC-CH4, and SC-N2O are calculated using a range of discount rates for use in regulatory
analyses. Three sets of values are based on the average social costs from the integrated assessment models, at
discount rates of 5 percent, 3 percent, and 2.5 percent. The fourth set, which represents the 95th percentile
of the social cost distributions calculated using a 3-percent discount rate, is included to represent higher-
than-expected impacts from climate change further out in the tails of the social cost distributions. The
social cost values are emission year specific. See section IV.D of the August 2021 MH SNOPR for more details.
** The benefits from NOX and SO2 were based on the low estimate monetized value.
[[Page 59060]]
VII. Comparison of the August 2021 MH SNOPR and NODA Results
This section provides summary tables that compare the results from
the August 2021 MH SNOPR to all the scenarios presented in this NODA,
including the sensitivity analyses. As such, each table presents
results for the: (1) August 2021 MH SNOPR analysis; (2) NODA updated
SNOPR analysis (section IV); (3) NODA sensitivity--alternate size-based
tier threshold (section V); (4) NODA sensitivity--alternate R-21 wall
insulation for climate zone 2 and 3 for Tier 2 and untiered (section
VI); and (5) NODA sensitivity--alternate R-21 wall insulation for
climate zone 2 and 3 and alternate size-based tier threshold (section
VI.A).
In the August 2021 MH SNOPR, DOE estimated the SNOPR would result
in a decrease in shipments of about 53,329 homes (single section and
multi-section combined) for the tiered standard and about 71,290 homes
(single section and multi-section combined) for untiered standards
based on a price elasticity of demand of -0.48 for the 30 year analysis
period (2023-2052). 86 FR 47744, 47758. Table VII.1 presents the same
results for the NODA and sensitivity analyses.
Table VII.1--Change In Shipments for Tiered and Untiered Standards
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Reduction in shipments (total)
-------------------------------
Tiered Untiered
------------------------------------------------------------------------
August 2021 MH SNOPR.................... 53,329 71,290
NODA Updated SNOPR...................... 45,562 70,203
Sensitivity--Alternate Size-Based Tier 38,288 N/A
Threshold..............................
Sensitivity--Alternate R-21 Wall 36,648 53,185
Insulation.............................
Sensitivity--Alternate R-21 Wall 31,956 N/A
Insulation and Size-Based Tier
Threshold..............................
------------------------------------------------------------------------
The following tables present the NPV results for the August 2021 MH
SNOPR and all the scenarios presented in this NODA, including the
sensitivity analyses.
Table VII.2--Net Present Value of Consumer Benefits for Manufactured Homes Purchased 2023-2052 With a 30-Year
Lifetime at a 7% Discount Rate
[In billion 2020$] *
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sensitivity--
Sensitivity-- Sensitivity-- alternate R-21
August 2021 MH NODA updated alternate size- alternate R-21 wall
Climate zone SNOPR SNOPR based tier wall insulation and
threshold insulation size- based
tier threshold
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tiered Standard (Single-section + Multi-section)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1............................... $0.69 $0.46 $0.46 $0.46 $0.46
2............................... 0.16 0.07 0.10 0.33 0.33
3............................... 0.78 0.51 0.57 0.70 0.73
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total....................... 1.62 1.04 1.13 1.50 1.52
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Untiered Standard (Single-section + Multi-section)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1............................... 0.70 0.46 N/A 0.46 N/A
2............................... 0.06 (0.10) N/A 0.30 N/A
3............................... 0.61 0.27 N/A 0.61 N/A
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total....................... 1.36 0.63 N/A 1.37 N/A
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* Negative values in parenthesis.
Table VII.3--Net Present Value of Consumer Benefits for Manufactured Homes Purchased 2023-2052 With a 30-Year Lifetime at a 3% Discount Rate
[In billion 2020$] *
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sensitivity--
Sensitivity-- Sensitivity-- alternate R-21
Climate zone August 2021 MH NODA updated alternate size- alternate R-21 wall insulation
SNOPR SNOPR based tier wall insulation and size- based
threshold tier threshold
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tiered Standard (Single-Section + Multi-Section)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1............................................................. $2.39 $1.60 $1.57 $1.60 $1.57
2............................................................. 1.17 0.74 0.79 1.26 1.24
[[Page 59061]]
3............................................................. 2.84 1.85 1.95 2.23 2.25
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total..................................................... 6.40 4.20 4.31 5.10 5.07
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Untiered Standard (Single-Section + Multi-Section)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1............................................................. 2.48 1.68 N/A 1.68 N/A
2............................................................. 1.02 0.44 N/A 1.26 N/A
3............................................................. 2.56 1.40 N/A 2.06 N/A
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total..................................................... 6.06 3.51 N/A 4.99 N/A
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table VII.4--Net Present Value of Monetized Benefits From GHG and Emissions Reductions
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Net present
value million Sensitivity-- Sensitivity--
2020$ NODA updated alternate size- Sensitivity-- alternate R-21
Monetary benefits Discount rate % ------------------ SNOPR based tier alternate R-21 wall insulation
August 2021 MH threshold wall insulation and size- based
SNOPR tier threshold
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tiered Standard
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GHG......................................... 5 $1,075.4 $842.1 $809.2 $810.8 $783.4
3 4,525.0 3,555.4 3,416.5 3,423.1 3,307.2
NOX......................................... 3 446.0 348.1 339.5 333.1 327.2
7 157.2 121.5 118.5 116.3 114.2
SO2......................................... 3 734.7 549.5 536.2 527.0 517.7
7 259.3 194.3 189.6 186.4 183.1
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Untiered Standard
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GHG......................................... 5 1,190.5 982.9 N/A 932.9 N/A
3 5,009.4 4,149.4 N/A 3,937.7 N/A
NOX......................................... 3 491.7 408.1 N/A 384.0 N/A
7 173.3 142.5 N/A 134.1 N/A
SO2......................................... 3 811.0 646.2 N/A 610.1 N/A
7 286.3 228.7 N/A 216.0 N/A
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
VIII. Reopening of Comment Period
For the August 2021 MH SNOPR, comments were originally due no later
than October 25, 2021. In light of this NODA, DOE has determined that
it is appropriate to reopen the comment period to allow additional time
for interested parties to prepare and submit comments. Therefore, DOE
is reopening the comment period and will accept comments, data, and
information on the August 2021 MH SNOPR and this NODA on and before
November 26, 2021. Accordingly, DOE will consider any comments received
by this date to be timely submitted.
IX. Public Participation
While DOE is not requesting comments on specific portions of the
analysis, DOE is interested in receiving comments on all aspects of the
data and analysis presented in the NODA and supporting documentation
that can be found at: www1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/standards.aspx?productid=64.
A. Submission of Comments
DOE will accept comments, data, and information regarding this
supplemental notice of proposed rulemaking before or after the public
meeting, but no later than the date provided in the DATES section at
the beginning of this proposed rule. Interested parties may submit
comments, data, and other information using any of the methods
described in the ADDRESSES section at the beginning of this document.
Submitting comments via www.regulations.gov. The
www.regulations.gov web page will require you to provide your name and
contact information. Your contact information will be viewable to DOE
Building Technologies staff only. Your contact information will not be
publicly viewable except for your first and last names, organization
name (if any), and submitter representative name (if any). If your
comment is not processed properly because of technical difficulties,
DOE will use this information to contact you. If DOE cannot read your
comment due to technical difficulties and cannot contact you for
clarification, DOE may not be able to consider your comment.
However, your contact information will be publicly viewable if you
include it in the comment itself or in any documents attached to your
comment. Any information that you do not want
[[Page 59062]]
to be publicly viewable should not be included in your comment, nor in
any document attached to your comment. Otherwise, persons viewing
comments will see only first and last names, organization names,
correspondence containing comments, and any documents submitted with
the comments.
Do not submit to www.regulations.gov information for which
disclosure is restricted by statute, such as trade secrets and
commercial or financial information (hereinafter referred to as
Confidential Business Information (``CBI'')). Comments submitted
through www.regulations.gov cannot be claimed as CBI. Comments received
through the website will waive any CBI claims for the information
submitted. For information on submitting CBI, see the Confidential
Business Information section.
DOE processes submissions made through www.regulations.gov before
posting. Normally, comments will be posted within a few days of being
submitted. However, if large volumes of comments are being processed
simultaneously, your comment may not be viewable for up to several
weeks. Please keep the comment tracking number that www.regulations.gov
provides after you have successfully uploaded your comment.
Submitting comments via email. Comments and documents submitted via
email also will be posted to www.regulations.gov. If you do not want
your personal contact information to be publicly viewable, do not
include it in your comment or any accompanying documents. Instead,
provide your contact information in a cover letter. Include your first
and last names, email address, telephone number, and optional mailing
address. The cover letter will not be publicly viewable as long as it
does not include any comments.
Include contact information each time you submit comments, data,
documents, and other information to DOE. No telefacsimiles (``faxes'')
will be accepted.
Comments, data, and other information submitted to DOE
electronically should be provided in PDF (preferred), Microsoft Word or
Excel, WordPerfect, or text (ASCII) file format. Provide documents that
are not secured, that are written in English, and that are free of any
defects or viruses. Documents should not contain special characters or
any form of encryption and, if possible, they should carry the
electronic signature of the author.
Campaign form letters. Please submit campaign form letters by the
originating organization in batches of between 50 to 500 form letters
per PDF or as one form letter with a list of supporters' names compiled
into one or more PDFs. This reduces comment processing and posting
time.
Confidential Business Information. Pursuant to 10 CFR 1004.11, any
person submitting information that he or she believes to be
confidential and exempt by law from public disclosure should submit via
email two well-marked copies: One copy of the document marked
``confidential'' including all the information believed to be
confidential, and one copy of the document marked ``non-confidential''
with the information believed to be confidential deleted. DOE will make
its own determination about the confidential status of the information
and treat it according to its determination.
It is DOE's policy that all comments may be included in the public
docket, without change and as received, including any personal
information provided in the comments (except information deemed to be
exempt from public disclosure).
X. Approval of the Office of the Secretary
The Secretary of Energy has approved publication of this
supplemental notice of proposed rulemaking; reopening of comment period
and notification of data availability.
Signing Authority
This document of the Department of Energy was signed on October 19,
2021, by Kelly Speakes-Backman, Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary
and Acting Assistant Secretary for Energy Efficiency and Renewable
Energy, pursuant to delegated authority from the Secretary of Energy.
That document with the original signature and date is maintained by
DOE. For administrative purposes only, and in compliance with
requirements of the Office of the Federal Register, the undersigned DOE
Federal Register Liaison Officer has been authorized to sign and submit
the document in electronic format for publication, as an official
document of the Department of Energy. This administrative process in no
way alters the legal effect of this document upon publication in the
Federal Register.
Signed in Washington, DC, on October 20, 2021.
Treena V. Garrett,
Federal Register Liaison Officer, U.S. Department of Energy.
[FR Doc. 2021-23188 Filed 10-25-21; 8:45 am]
BILLING CODE 6450-01-P
