Air Plan Approval; Wisconsin; Attainment Plan for the Rhinelander SO2, 38643-38651 [2021-15464]
Download as PDF
Federal Register / Vol. 86, No. 138 / Thursday, July 22, 2021 / Proposed Rules
2011), the EPA has offered consultation
to tribal governments that may be
affected by this action.
G. Executive Order 13045: Protection of
Children From Environmental Health
Risks and Safety Risks
EPA interprets Executive Order 13045
as applying only to those regulatory
actions that concern environmental
health or safety risks that the EPA has
reason to believe may
disproportionately affect children, per
the definition of ‘‘covered regulatory
action’’ in section 2–202 of the
Executive Order. This action is not
subject to Executive Order 13045
because it merely proposes to
disapprove a SIP submission as not
meeting the CAA.
H. Executive Order 13211, Actions That
Significantly Affect Energy Supply,
Distribution or Use
This action is not subject to Executive
Order 13211, because it is not a
significant regulatory action under
Executive Order 12866.
I. National Technology Transfer and
Advancement Act
This rulemaking does not involve
technical standards.
J. Executive Order 12898: Federal
Actions To Address Environmental
Justice in Minority Populations and
Low-Income Populations
EPA believes the human health or
environmental risk addressed by this
action will not have potential
disproportionately high and adverse
human health or environmental effects
on minority, low-income or indigenous
populations. This action merely
proposes to disapprove a SIP
submission as not meeting the CAA.
List of Subjects in 40 CFR Part 52
Environmental protection, Air
pollution control, Incorporation by
reference, Intergovernmental relations,
Nitrogen dioxide, Ozone, Particulate
matter, Sulfur oxides, Visibility
transport.
lotter on DSK11XQN23PROD with PROPOSALS1
Authority: 42 U.S.C. 7401 et seq.
Dated: July 15, 2021.
David Gray,
Acting Regional Administrator, Region 6.
[FR Doc. 2021–15467 Filed 7–21–21; 8:45 am]
BILLING CODE 6560–50–P
VerDate Sep<11>2014
16:30 Jul 21, 2021
Jkt 253001
ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION
AGENCY
40 CFR Part 52
[EPA–R05–OAR–2021–0256; FRL–8692–01–
R5]
Air Plan Approval; Wisconsin;
Attainment Plan for the Rhinelander
SO2 Nonattainment Area
Environmental Protection
Agency (EPA).
ACTION: Proposed rule.
AGENCY:
The Environmental Protection
Agency (EPA) is proposing to approve
the State Implementation Plan (SIP)
revision submitted by Wisconsin on
March 29, 2021, which amends a SIP
submission previously submitted to
EPA on January 22, 2016 and
supplemented on July 18, 2016, and
November 29, 2016, for attaining the 1hour sulfur dioxide (SO2) primary
national ambient air quality standard
(NAAQS) for the Rhinelander SO2
nonattainment area. This plan (herein
referred to as Wisconsin’s Rhinelander
SO2 plan or plan) includes Wisconsin’s
attainment demonstration and other
elements required under the Clean Air
Act (CAA). In addition to an attainment
demonstration, the plan addresses the
requirement for meeting reasonable
further progress (RFP) toward
attainment of the NAAQS, reasonably
available control measures and
reasonably available control technology
(RACM/RACT), and contingency
measures. This action supplements a
prior action which found that
Wisconsin had satisfied emission
inventory and new source review (NSR)
requirements for this area, but had not
met requirements for the elements
proposed to be approved here. EPA is
proposing to conclude that Wisconsin
has appropriately demonstrated that the
plan provisions provide for attainment
of the 2010 1-hour primary SO2 NAAQS
in the Rhinelander SO2 nonattainment
area and that the plan meets the other
applicable requirements under the CAA.
DATES: Comments must be received on
or before August 23, 2021.
ADDRESSES: Submit your comments,
identified by Docket ID No. EPA–R05–
OAR–2021–0256 at https://
www.regulations.gov, or via email to
leslie.michael@epa.gov. For comments
submitted at Regulations.gov, follow the
online instructions for submitting
comments. Once submitted, comments
cannot be edited or removed from
Regulations.gov. For either manner of
submission, EPA may publish any
comment received to its public docket.
Do not submit electronically any
SUMMARY:
PO 00000
Frm 00054
Fmt 4702
Sfmt 4702
38643
information you consider to be
Confidential Business Information (CBI)
or other information whose disclosure is
restricted by statute. Multimedia
submissions (audio, video, etc.) must be
accompanied by a written comment.
The written comment is considered the
official comment and should include
discussion of all points you wish to
make. EPA will generally not consider
comments or comment contents located
outside of the primary submission (i.e.,
on the web, cloud, or other file sharing
system). For additional submission
methods, please contact the person
identified in the FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION CONTACT section. For the
full EPA public comment policy,
information about CBI or multimedia
submissions, and general guidance on
making effective comments, please visit
https://www2.epa.gov/dockets/
commenting-epa-dockets.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT:
Abigail Teener, Environmental
Engineer, Attainment Planning and
Maintenance Section, Air Programs
Branch (AR–18J), Environmental
Protection Agency, Region 5, 77 West
Jackson Boulevard, Chicago, Illinois
60604, (312) 353–7314, teener.abigail@
epa.gov. The EPA Region 5 office is
open from 8:30 a.m. to 4:30 p.m.,
Monday through Friday, excluding
Federal holidays and facility closures
due to COVID–19.
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: This
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION section is
arranged as follows:
I. Why was Wisconsin required to submit an
SO2 plan for the Rhinelander area?
II. Requirements for SO2 Nonattainment Area
Plans
III. Attainment Demonstration and Longer
Term Averaging
IV. Review of Modeled Attainment Plan
A. Model Selection
B. Simulation of Downwash
C. Meteorological Data
D. Emissions Data
E. Emission Limits
F. Background Concentrations
G. Summary of Results
V. Review of Other Plan Requirements
A. RACM/RACT
B. Reasonable Further Progress (RFP)
C. Contingency Measures
VI. What action is EPA taking?
VII. Incorporation by Reference
VIII. Statutory and Executive Order Reviews
I. Why was Wisconsin required to
submit an SO2 plan for the Rhinelander
area?
On June 22, 2010, EPA promulgated a
new 1-hour primary SO2 NAAQS of 75
parts per billion (ppb), which is met at
an ambient air quality monitoring site
when the 3-year average of the annual
99th percentile of daily maximum 1-
E:\FR\FM\22JYP1.SGM
22JYP1
lotter on DSK11XQN23PROD with PROPOSALS1
38644
Federal Register / Vol. 86, No. 138 / Thursday, July 22, 2021 / Proposed Rules
hour average concentrations does not
exceed 75 ppb, as determined in
accordance with appendix T of 40 CFR
part 50. See 75 FR 35520, codified at 40
CFR 50.17(a)–(b). On August 5, 2013,
EPA designated 29 areas of the country
as nonattainment for the 2010 SO2
NAAQS, including the Rhinelander area
within the State of Wisconsin. See 78
FR 47191, codified at 40 CFR part 81,
subpart C. These area designations were
effective October 4, 2013. Section 191 of
the CAA directs states to submit SIPs for
areas designated as nonattainment for
the SO2 NAAQS to EPA within 18
months of the effective date of the
designation, i.e., by no later than April
4, 2015 in this case. These SIPs are
required to demonstrate that their
respective areas will attain the NAAQS
as expeditiously as practicable, but no
later than 5 years from the effective date
of designation, which is October 4,
2018.
In response to the requirement for SO2
nonattainment plan submittals,
Wisconsin submitted a nonattainment
plan for the Rhinelander area on January
22, 2016, and supplemented it on July
18, 2016, and November 29, 2016. On
March 23, 2021,1 EPA partially
approved and partially disapproved
Wisconsin’s Rhinelander SO2 plan as
submitted and supplemented in 2016.
EPA approved the base-year emissions
inventory and affirmed that the new
source review requirements for the area
had previously been met.2 EPA also
approved the SO2 emission limit for
Ahlstrom-Munksjo¨’s Rhinelander
facility (Ahlstrom-Munksjo¨) (formerly
Expera Specialty Solutions LLC
(Expera)) as SIP-strengthening. At that
time, EPA disapproved the attainment
demonstration, since the plan relied on
credit for more stack height than is
creditable under the regulations for
good engineering practice (GEP) stack
height. Additionally, EPA disapproved
the plan for failing to meet the
requirements for meeting RFP toward
attainment of the NAAQS, RACM/
RACT, emission limitations and control
measures as necessary to attain the
NAAQS, and contingency measures.
Under sections 110(c) and 179(a)–(b)
of the CAA, a disapproval in whole or
in part of a state submittal initiates a
Federal Implementation Plan (FIP) clock
and sanctions clocks, respectively,
which are terminated by an EPA
rulemaking approving a revised plan.
On March 29, 2021, Wisconsin
submitted a permit containing a revised
emission limit and supplemental
information in order to remedy the
1 86
2 79
FR 15418 (March 23, 2021).
FR 60064 (October 6, 2014).
VerDate Sep<11>2014
16:30 Jul 21, 2021
Jkt 253001
plan’s deficiencies specified in EPA’s
March 23, 2021 rulemaking, along with
a request that EPA approve its revised
plan for the Rhinelander area.
The remainder of this action describes
the requirements that SO2
nonattainment plans must meet in order
to obtain EPA approval, provides a
review of Wisconsin’s revised plan with
respect to these requirements, and
describes EPA’s proposed action on the
plan.
II. Requirements for SO2
Nonattainment Area Plans
Nonattainment SIPs must meet the
applicable requirements of the CAA,
and specifically CAA sections 172, 191
and 192. EPA’s regulations governing
nonattainment SIPs are set forth at 40
CFR part 51, with specific procedural
requirements and control strategy
requirements residing at subparts F and
G, respectively. Soon after Congress
enacted the 1990 Amendments to the
CAA, EPA issued comprehensive
guidance on SIPs, in a document
entitled the ‘‘General Preamble for the
Implementation of Title I of the Clean
Air Act Amendments of 1990,’’
published at 57 FR 13498 (April 16,
1992) (General Preamble). Among other
things, the General Preamble addressed
SO2 SIPs and fundamental principles for
SIP control strategies. Id., at 13545–49,
13567–68. On April 23, 2014, EPA
issued recommended guidance for
meeting the statutory requirements in
SO2 SIPs, in a document entitled,
‘‘Guidance for 1-Hour SO2
Nonattainment Area SIP Submissions,’’
available at https://www.epa.gov/sites/
production/files/2016-06/documents/
20140423guidance_nonattainment_
sip.pdf. In this guidance EPA described
the statutory requirements for a
complete nonattainment area SIP, which
includes: An accurate emissions
inventory of current emissions for all
sources of SO2 within the
nonattainment area; an attainment
demonstration; demonstration of RFP;
implementation of RACM (including
RACT); NSR; emissions limitations and
control measures as necessary to attain
the NAAQS; and adequate contingency
measures for the affected area. EPA
already concluded in its March 23, 2021
rulemaking that Wisconsin has met the
emissions inventory and NSR
requirements.
In order for EPA to fully approve a
SIP as meeting the requirements of CAA
sections 110, 172 and 191–192 and
EPA’s regulations at 40 CFR part 51, the
SIP for the affected area needs to
demonstrate to EPA’s satisfaction that
each of the aforementioned
requirements have been met. Under
PO 00000
Frm 00055
Fmt 4702
Sfmt 4702
CAA sections 110(l) and 193, EPA may
not approve a SIP that would interfere
with any applicable requirement
concerning NAAQS attainment and
RFP, or any other applicable
requirement, and no requirement in
effect (or required to be adopted by an
order, settlement, agreement, or plan in
effect before November 15, 1990) in any
area which is a nonattainment area for
any air pollutant, may be modified in
any manner unless it ensures equivalent
or greater emission reductions of such
air pollutant.
III. Attainment Demonstration and
Longer Term Averaging
CAA section 172(c)(1) directs states
with areas designated as nonattainment
to demonstrate that the submitted plan
provides for attainment of the NAAQS.
40 CFR part 51, subpart G, further
delineates the control strategy
requirements that SIPs must meet, and
EPA has long required that all SIPs and
control strategies reflect four
fundamental principles of
quantification, enforceability,
replicability, and accountability.
General Preamble at 13567–68. SO2
attainment plans must consist of two
components: (1) Emission limits and
other control measures that ensure
implementation of permanent,
enforceable and necessary emission
controls, and (2) a modeling analysis
which meets the requirements of 40 CFR
part 51, appendix W, which
demonstrates that these emission limits
and control measures provide for timely
attainment of the primary SO2 NAAQS
as expeditiously as practicable, but by
no later than the attainment date for the
affected area. In all cases, the emission
limits and control measures must be
accompanied by appropriate methods
and conditions to determine compliance
with the respective emission limits and
control measures and must be
quantifiable (i.e., a specific amount of
emission reduction can be ascribed to
the measures), fully enforceable
(specifying clear, unambiguous and
measurable requirements for which
compliance can be practicably
determined), replicable (the procedures
for determining compliance are
sufficiently specific and non-subjective
so that two independent entities
applying the procedures would obtain
the same result), and accountable
(source specific limits must be
permanent and must reflect the
assumptions used in the SIP
demonstrations).
EPA’s April 2014 guidance
recommends that the emission limits be
expressed as short-term average limits
(e.g., addressing emissions averaged
E:\FR\FM\22JYP1.SGM
22JYP1
lotter on DSK11XQN23PROD with PROPOSALS1
Federal Register / Vol. 86, No. 138 / Thursday, July 22, 2021 / Proposed Rules
over one or three hours), but also
describes the option to utilize emission
limits with longer averaging times of up
to 30 days so long as the state meets
various suggested criteria. See 2014
guidance, pp. 22 to 39. The guidance
recommends that, should states and
sources utilize longer averaging times,
the longer term average limit should be
set at an adjusted level that reflects a
stringency comparable to the 1-hour
average limit at the critical emission
value shown to provide for attainment
that the plan otherwise would have set.
The April 2014 guidance provides an
extensive discussion of EPA’s rationale
for concluding that appropriately set
comparably stringent limitations based
on averaging times as long as 30 days
can be found to provide for attainment
of the 2010 SO2 NAAQS. In evaluating
this option, EPA considered the nature
of the standard, conducted detailed
analyses of the impact of use of 30-day
average limits on the prospects for
attaining the standard, and carefully
reviewed how best to achieve an
appropriate balance among the various
factors that warrant consideration in
judging whether a state’s plan provides
for attainment. Id. at pp. 22 to 39. See
also id. at appendices B, C, and D.
As specified in 40 CFR 50.17(b), the
1-hour primary SO2 NAAQS is met at an
ambient air quality monitoring site
when the 3-year average of the annual
99th percentile of daily maximum 1hour concentrations is less than or equal
to 75 ppb. In a year with 365 days of
valid monitoring data, the 99th
percentile would be the fourth highest
daily maximum 1-hour value. The 2010
SO2 NAAQS, including this form of
determining compliance with the
standard, was upheld by the U.S. Court
of Appeals for the District of Columbia
Circuit in Nat’l Envt’l Dev. Ass’n’s Clean
Air Project v. EPA, 686 F.3d 803 (D.C.
Cir. 2012). Because the standard has this
form, a single exceedance does not
create a violation of the standard.
Instead, at issue is whether a source
operating in compliance with a properly
set longer term average could cause
exceedances, and if so the resulting
frequency and magnitude of such
exceedances, and in particular whether
EPA can have reasonable confidence
that a properly set longer term average
limit will provide that the average
fourth highest daily maximum value
will be at or below 75 ppb. A synopsis
of how EPA judges whether such plans
‘‘provide for attainment,’’ based on
modeling of projected allowable
emissions and in light of the NAAQS’
form for determining attainment at
monitoring sites follows.
VerDate Sep<11>2014
16:30 Jul 21, 2021
Jkt 253001
For SO2 plans based on 1-hour
emission limits, the standard approach
is to conduct modeling using fixed
emission rates. The maximum emission
rate that would be modeled to result in
attainment (i.e., in an ‘‘average year’’ 3
which shows three days with maximum
hourly levels exceeding 75 ppb) is
labeled the ‘‘critical emission value.’’
The modeling process for identifying
this critical emissions value inherently
considers the numerous variables that
affect ambient concentrations of SO2,
such as meteorological data, background
concentrations, and topography. In the
standard approach, the state would then
provide for attainment by setting a
continuously applicable 1-hour
emission limit at this critical emission
value.
EPA recognizes that some sources
have highly variable emissions, for
example due to variations in fuel sulfur
content and operating rate, that can
make it extremely difficult, even with a
well-designed control strategy, to ensure
in practice that emissions for any given
hour do not exceed the critical emission
value. EPA also acknowledges the
concern that longer term emission limits
can allow short periods with emissions
above the ‘‘critical emissions value,’’
which, if coincident with
meteorological conditions conducive to
high SO2 concentrations, could in turn
create the possibility of a NAAQS
exceedance occurring on a day when an
exceedance would not have occurred if
emissions were continuously controlled
at the level corresponding to the critical
emission value. However, for several
reasons, EPA believes that the approach
recommended in its guidance document
suitably addresses this concern. First,
from a practical perspective, EPA
expects the actual emission profile of a
source subject to an appropriately set
longer term average limit to be similar
to the emission profile of a source
subject to an analogous 1-hour average
limit. EPA expects this similarity
because it has recommended that the
longer term average limit be set at a
level that is comparably stringent to the
otherwise applicable 1-hour limit
(reflecting a downward adjustment from
the critical emissions value) and that
takes the source’s emissions profile into
account. As a result, EPA expects either
form of emission limit to yield
comparable air quality.
3 An ‘‘average year’’ is used to mean a year with
average air quality. While 40 CFR 50 appendix T
provides for averaging three years of 99th percentile
daily maximum values (e.g., the fourth highest
maximum daily concentration in a year with 365
days with valid data), this discussion and an
example below uses a single ‘‘average year’’ in order
to simplify the illustration of relevant principles.
PO 00000
Frm 00056
Fmt 4702
Sfmt 4702
38645
Second, from a more theoretical
perspective, EPA has compared the
likely air quality with a source having
maximum allowable emissions under an
appropriately set longer term limit, as
compared to the likely air quality with
the source having maximum allowable
emissions under the comparable 1-hour
limit. In this comparison, in the 1-hour
average limit scenario, the source is
presumed at all times to emit at the
critical emission level, and in the longer
term average limit scenario, the source
is presumed occasionally to emit more
than the critical emission value but on
average, and presumably at most times,
to emit well below the critical emission
value. In an ‘‘average year,’’ compliance
with the 1-hour limit is expected to
result in three exceedance days (i.e.,
three days with hourly values above 75
ppb) and a fourth day with a maximum
hourly value at 75 ppb. By comparison,
with the source complying with a longer
term limit, it is possible that additional
exceedances would occur that would
not occur in the 1-hour limit scenario (if
emissions exceed the critical emission
value at times when meteorology is
conducive to poor air quality). However,
this comparison must also factor in the
likelihood that exceedances that would
be expected in the 1-hour limit scenario
would not occur in the longer term limit
scenario. This result arises because the
longer term limit requires lower
emissions most of the time (because the
limit is set well below the critical
emission value), so a source complying
with an appropriately set longer term
limit is likely to have lower emissions
at critical times than would be the case
if the source were emitting as allowed
with a 1-hour limit.
As a hypothetical example to
illustrate these points, suppose a source
always emits 1,000 pounds of SO2 per
hour (lbs/hr), which results in air
quality at the level of the NAAQS (i.e.,
results in a design value of 75 ppb).
Suppose further that in an ‘‘average
year,’’ these emissions cause the 5
highest maximum daily average 1-hour
concentrations to be 100 ppb, 90 ppb, 80
ppb, 75 ppb, and 70 ppb. Then suppose
that the source becomes subject to a 30day average emission limit of 700 lbs/
hr. It is theoretically possible for a
source meeting this limit to have
emissions that occasionally exceed
1,000 lbs/hr, but with a typical
emissions profile emissions would
much more commonly be between 600
and 800 lbs/hr. In this simplified
example, assume a zero background
concentration, which allows one to
assume a linear relationship between
emissions and air quality. (A nonzero
E:\FR\FM\22JYP1.SGM
22JYP1
38646
Federal Register / Vol. 86, No. 138 / Thursday, July 22, 2021 / Proposed Rules
lotter on DSK11XQN23PROD with PROPOSALS1
background concentration would make
the mathematics more difficult but
would give similar results.) Air quality
will depend on what emissions happen
on what critical hours, but suppose that
emissions at the relevant times on these
5 days are 800 lbs/hr, 1,100 lbs/hr, 500
lbs/hr, 900 lbs/hr, and 1,200 lbs/hr,
respectively. (This is a conservative
example because the average of these
emissions, 900 lbs/hr, is well over the
30-day average emission limit.) These
emissions would result in daily
maximum 1-hour concentrations of 80
ppb, 99 ppb, 40 ppb, 67.5 ppb, and 84
ppb. In this example, the fifth day
would have an exceedance that would
not otherwise have occurred (84 ppb
under the 30-day average limit
compared to 70 ppb under the 1-hour
limit). However, the third day would
not have an exceedance that otherwise
would have occurred (40 ppb under the
30-day average limit compared to 80
ppb under the 1-hour limit). The fourth
day would have been below, rather than
at, 75 ppb (67.5 ppb under the 30-day
average limit compared to 75 ppb under
the 1-hour limit). In this example, the
fourth highest maximum daily
concentration under the 30-day average
would be 67.5 ppb.
This simplified example illustrates
the findings of a more complicated
statistical analysis that EPA conducted
using a range of scenarios using actual
plant data. As described in appendix B
of EPA’s April 2014 SO2 nonattainment
planning guidance, EPA found that the
requirement for lower average emissions
is likely to yield as good air quality as
is required with a comparably stringent
1-hour limit. Based on analyses
described in appendix B of its 2014
guidance and similar subsequent work,
EPA expects that emission profiles with
maximum allowable emissions under an
appropriately set comparably stringent
30-day average limit are likely to have
the net effect of no more exceedances
and as good air quality of an emission
profile with maximum allowable
emissions under a 1-hour emission limit
at the critical emission value.4 This
4 See also further analyses described in
rulemaking on the SO2 nonattainment plan for
Southwest Indiana. In response to comments
expressing concern that the emission profiles
analyzed for appendix B represented actual rather
than allowable emissions, EPA conducted
additional work formulating sample allowable
emission profiles and analyzing the resulting air
quality impact. This analysis provided further
support for the conclusion that an appropriately set
longer term average emission limit in appropriate
circumstances can suitably provide for attainment.
The rulemaking describing these further analyses
was published on August 17, 2020, at 85 FR 49967,
available at https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/
FR-2020-08-17/pdf/2020-16044.pdf. A more
detailed description of these analyses is available in
VerDate Sep<11>2014
16:30 Jul 21, 2021
Jkt 253001
result provides a compelling policy
rationale for allowing the use of a longer
averaging period, in appropriate
circumstances where the facts indicate
this result can be expected to occur.
The question then becomes whether
this approach, which is likely to
produce a lower number of overall
exceedances even though it may
produce some unexpected exceedances
above the critical emission value, meets
the requirement in section 110(a)(1) and
172(c)(1) for state implementation plans
to ‘‘provide for attainment’’ of the
NAAQS. For SO2, as for other
pollutants, it is generally impossible to
design a nonattainment plan in the
present that will guarantee that
attainment will occur in the future. A
variety of factors can cause a welldesigned attainment plan to fail and
unexpectedly not result in attainment,
for example if meteorology occurs that
is more conducive to poor air quality
than was anticipated in the plan.
Therefore, in determining whether a
plan meets the requirement to provide
for attainment, EPA’s task is commonly
to judge not whether the plan provides
absolute certainty that attainment will
in fact occur, but rather whether the
plan provides an adequate level of
confidence of prospective NAAQS
attainment. From this perspective, in
evaluating use of a 30-day average limit,
EPA must weigh the likely net effect on
air quality. Such an evaluation must
consider the risk that occasions with
meteorology conducive to high
concentrations will have elevated
emissions leading to exceedances that
would not otherwise have occurred, and
must also weigh the likelihood that the
requirement for lower emissions on
average will result in days not having
exceedances that would have been
expected with emissions at the critical
emissions value. Additional policy
considerations, such as accommodating
real world emissions variability without
significant risk of violations, are also
appropriate factors for EPA to weigh in
judging whether a plan provides a
reasonable degree of confidence that the
plan will lead to attainment. Based on
these considerations, EPA believes that
a continuously enforceable limit
averaged over as long as 30 days, if
determined in accordance with EPA’s
guidance, can reasonably be considered
to provide for attainment of the 2010
SO2 NAAQS.
The April 2014 guidance offers
specific recommendations for
determining an appropriate longer term
the docket for that action, specifically at https://
www.regulations.gov/document?D=EPA-R05-OAR2015-0700-0023.
PO 00000
Frm 00057
Fmt 4702
Sfmt 4702
average limit. The recommended
method starts with determination of the
1-hour emission limit that would
provide for attainment (i.e., the critical
emission value), then applies an
adjustment factor to determine the
(lower) level of the longer term average
emission limit that would be estimated
to have a stringency comparable to the
1-hour emission limit. This method uses
a database of continuous emission data
reflecting the type of control that the
source will be using to comply with the
SIP emission limits, which (if
compliance requires new controls) may
require use of an emission database
from another source. The recommended
method involves using these data to
compute a complete set of emission
averages, computed according to the
averaging time and averaging
procedures of the prospective emission
limitation. In this recommended
method, the ratio of the 99th percentile
among these long term averages to the
99th percentile of the 1-hour values
represents an adjustment factor that may
be multiplied by the candidate 1-hour
emission limit to determine a longer
term average emission limit that may be
considered comparably stringent.5 The
guidance also addresses a variety of
related topics, such as the potential
utility of setting supplemental emission
limits, such as mass-based limits, to
reduce the likelihood and/or magnitude
of elevated emission levels that might
occur under the longer term emission
rate limit.
Preferred air quality models for use in
regulatory applications are described in
appendix A of EPA’s Guideline on Air
Quality Models (40 CFR part 51,
appendix W). In 2005, EPA promulgated
AERMOD as the Agency’s preferred
near-field dispersion modeling for a
wide range of regulatory applications
addressing stationary sources (for
example in estimating SO2
concentrations) in all types of terrain
based on extensive developmental and
performance evaluation. Supplemental
guidance on modeling for purposes of
demonstrating attainment of the SO2
standard is provided in appendix A to
the April 23, 2014 SO2 nonattainment
area SIP guidance document referenced
above. Appendix A provides extensive
guidance on the modeling domain, the
source inputs, assorted types of
meteorological data, and background
concentrations. Consistency with the
recommendations in this guidance is
generally necessary for the attainment
5 For example, if the critical emission value is
1,000 lbs/hr of SO2, and a suitable adjustment factor
is determined to be 70 percent, the recommended
longer term average limit would be 700 lbs/hr.
E:\FR\FM\22JYP1.SGM
22JYP1
Federal Register / Vol. 86, No. 138 / Thursday, July 22, 2021 / Proposed Rules
IV. Review of Modeled Attainment Plan
The following discussion evaluates
various features of the modeling that
Wisconsin used in its attainment
demonstration.
lotter on DSK11XQN23PROD with PROPOSALS1
A. Model Selection
Wisconsin’s attainment
demonstration used AERMOD, the
preferred model for this application.
Wisconsin’s January 2016 submittal
used version 15181 of this model, which
was the most recent version at that time.
However, the supplemental modeling
that Wisconsin submitted in March
2021 used version 19191, which is the
current regulatory version of AERMOD.
EPA finds this selection appropriate.
Wisconsin’s receptor grid and
modeling domain for the Rhinelander
area followed the recommended
approaches from EPA’s Guideline on Air
Quality Models (40 CFR part 51,
appendix W). Receptor spacing for each
modeled facility was every 25 meters
out to a distance of 500 meters from
each source, then every 50 meters to
1,000 meters, every 100 meters out to 3
kilometers, every 250 meters out to 6
kilometers, and every 500 meters out to
10 kilometers.
Wisconsin determined that the
Rhinelander area should be modeled
with rural dispersion coefficients, as
Ahlstrom-Munksjo¨ is surrounded by
less than 50% of land classified as
industrial, commercial, or dense
residential within 3 kilometers, as
recommended by EPA’s Guideline on
Air Quality Models. Therefore, EPA
concurs with Wisconsin’s determination
that this area warrants being modeled
with rural dispersion coefficients.
B. Simulation of Downwash
Modeling of emissions from
Ahlstrom-Munksjo¨ has historically
underpredicted concentrations
measured at a nearby monitor. When
winds blow from this facility toward the
monitor, the emissions traverse a corner
of the building. Under these
circumstances, the building appears to
cause enhanced eddies in the air flow,
known as corner vortices, which in
certain circumstances appear to result in
a substantial enhancement of downwash
of emissions to ground level and
substantially greater concentrations than
are modeled using the standard
downwash algorithm in AERMOD.
Recognizing these issues, the
company contracted for a wind tunnel
study, carried out by Cermak Peterka
Petersen (CPP), to assess the magnitude
of this effect and to support a more
accurate assessment of downwash at
this facility. This study supported the
conclusion that the discrepancy
between modeled and monitored SO2
concentrations were due to the corner
vortex phenomenon, a phenomenon that
Equation 1:
6 EPA–450/4–80–023R,
VerDate Sep<11>2014
R
=
A exp ( _
(
1
is described in EPA’s ‘‘Guideline for
Determination of Good Engineering
Practice Stack Height (Technical
Support Document for the Stack Height
Regulations).’’ 6 The wind tunnel study
showed that as the wind approaches the
corner of the Ahlstrom-Munksjo¨
building, vortices are created that act to
increase the SO2 concentrations
downwind of the building. Analysis of
these results suggested that the
influence of these corner vortices vary
by wind speed. Ahlstrom-Munksjo¨’s
consultants, AECOM and CPP,
developed an equation estimating a
multiplier, varying by wind speed, by
which to estimate the impact of
downwash in this case, i.e., a multiplier
by which to multiply concentrations
estimated in absence of downwash to
estimate concentrations reflecting the
downwash induced by this facility. The
wind tunnel study focused on
concentrations in the direction with the
most enhanced downwash but applied
the same adjustment in all directions.
Since there is less downwash in
directions less influenced by corner
vortices, EPA considers this approach
conservative in maximizing estimated
downwash effects on concentrations.
Wisconsin’s 2016 SIP submittal relied
on modeling Ahlstrom-Munksjo¨ using a
stack height of 90 meters. For this
facility, the ‘‘formula good engineering
practice (GEP) stack height’’ computed
according to the formula in EPA’s stack
height regulations (defined at 40 CFR
51.100(ii)(2)(ii)) is 75 meters. EPA
disapproved the 2016 submittal because
EPA’s stack height regulations prohibit
credit for a stack above formula GEP
stack height unless the state meets
requirements specified in those
regulations for the level of control at the
facility. Wisconsin’s 2021 submittal
meets EPA’s stack height regulations by
applying a limit demonstrated to
provide attainment with a stack at the
creditable height of 75 meters.
The wind tunnel studies primarily
simulated a stack with a height of 85
meters, with another run simulating a
stack with a height of 90 meters. These
runs indicated the following equation to
estimate the ratio of concentrations
expected with the building as compared
concentrations without the building:
)2) + l
__
1
Uairpor~z Umax
June 1985.
16:30 Jul 21, 2021
Jkt 253001
PO 00000
Frm 00058
Fmt 4702
Sfmt 4725
E:\FR\FM\22JYP1.SGM
22JYP1
EP22JY21.023
demonstration to offer adequately
reliable assurance that the plan provides
for attainment.
As stated previously, attainment
demonstrations for the 2010 1-hour
primary SO2 NAAQS must demonstrate
future attainment and maintenance of
the NAAQS in the entire area
designated as nonattainment (i.e., not
just at the violating monitor). This is
demonstrated by using air quality
dispersion modeling (see appendix W to
40 CFR part 51) that shows that the mix
of sources, enforceable control
measures, and emission rates in an
identified area will not lead to a
violation of the SO2 NAAQS. For a
short-term (i.e., 1-hour) standard, EPA
believes that dispersion modeling, using
allowable emissions and addressing
stationary sources in the affected area
(and in some cases those sources located
outside the nonattainment area which
may affect attainment in the area) is
technically appropriate, efficient and
effective in demonstrating attainment in
nonattainment areas because it takes
into consideration combinations of
meteorological and emission source
operating conditions that may
contribute to peak ground-level
concentrations of SO2.
The meteorological data used in the
analysis should generally be processed
with the most recent version of
AERMET. Estimated concentrations
should include ambient background
concentrations, should follow the form
of the standard, and should be
calculated as described in section
2.6.1.2 of the August 23, 2010
clarification memo on ‘‘Applicability of
appendix W Modeling Guidance for the
1-hr SO2 National Ambient Air Quality
Standard’’ (U.S. EPA, 2010a).
38647
lotter on DSK11XQN23PROD with PROPOSALS1
38648
Federal Register / Vol. 86, No. 138 / Thursday, July 22, 2021 / Proposed Rules
The variable R is the ratio multiplier
that is applied to the hourly emission
rate file used in AERMOD. The Uairport
and Umax values represent the actual
hourly wind speed measured at the
Rhinelander airport and the maximum
wind speed, i.e., wind speed exceeded
less than 1% of the time, of 10.8 meters
per second. The A and B parameters are
best-fit coefficients. The A parameter,
plus 1, represents the maximum
multiplier that can be applied to the
hourly emissions.
While this equation was originally
derived to assess the wind-speeddependent influence of downwash with
a 90-meter stack, the influence of
downwash for a 75-meter stack may be
derived based on these same 85-meter
and 90-meter results by using a best-fit
coefficient (A) that is specific to a 75meter stack. The best-fit coefficient was
originally developed using wind tunnel
data at an 85-meter stack height. This
coefficient was then adjusted using
observed and predicted concentration
ratios, from the wind tunnel
information, to determine the
appropriate coefficient for a 75-meter
stack height. For a 75-meter stack,
Wisconsin applied the above equation
with a value of A of 0.826 and B of
0.174.
Wisconsin did not modify any
algorithms or computer code in
AERMOD to reflect this enhancement of
the influence of downwash. Instead,
Wisconsin implemented this
enhancement by using modified model
inputs. Wisconsin first examined hourly
wind speeds. Wisconsin computed
hourly downwash multipliers based on
the above equation. Ordinarily,
Wisconsin would run AERMOD using a
fixed emission rate reflecting the
allowable emission rate, but in this case
Wisconsin input an hourly varying
emission rate in which each hour’s
input value equaled the fixed emission
rate (reflecting the allowable emission
rate) times that hour’s downwash
multiplier. For example, for an hour
with a wind speed of 5 meters per
second, for which the above equation
gives a downwash multiplier of 1.564,
the modeled emission rate for that hour
reflected multiplication times 1.564.
This multiplier gives the expected ratio
of concentrations with the magnitude of
downwash at this facility as compared
to the concentrations expected if no
downwash were occurring. Therefore,
Wisconsin estimated hourly
concentrations with Ahlstrom-Munksjo¨specific downwash by modeling the
facility without downwash but
incorporating the expected impact of
downwash at this facility by increasing
VerDate Sep<11>2014
16:30 Jul 21, 2021
Jkt 253001
the emission rate modeled for each hour
accordingly.
EPA views Wisconsin’s modeling as
applying an alternate model under the
terms of 40 CFR 51 appendix W section
3.2.2.b.2. Under the alternative model
criteria discussed in section 3.2.2.b.2, it
must be shown that the alternative
model performs better for a given
application than the recommended
model, using a statistical analysis. The
State of Wisconsin evaluated the
performance of the alternative model
from both a theoretical and a
performance perspective. This
information was included in the public
notice which preceded Wisconsin
finalizing its submittal. The Wisconsin
analysis showed that the alternative
model predicted a design value slightly
above the monitored design value using
the recent three years of monitoring
data, 2017–2019. The most recent three
years reflect the impact of emissions
exiting the 90-meter stack. Recent
meteorological data, processed for
modeling purposes, was not available.
Consequently, the comparison was
conducted using the full five years of
meteorology applied for the attainment
demonstration.
Additional comparisons were
conducted that examined, on a year-toyear basis, how well the alternative
model was performing compared to the
regulatory version of the model and
compared to monitoring data. That
analysis only used emissions from
boiler B26, which vents through Stack
S09, when the boiler was actually
operating, essentially non-summer
months for the years 2017–2019. This
supplemental modeling was conducted
using a grid focused on a 400-meter by
400-meter area around the monitor to
the north of Ahlstrom-Munskjo¨. Again,
5 years of meteorological data (2011–
2015) was used in the modeling.
The model to monitor comparison
used High 1st High concentrations, the
average of the top 26 values, fractional
bias, and 99th percentile values. The
results of the comparison showed that
the alternative model performed
consistently better than the regulatory
version, that is it predicted higher
concentrations than the standard
version of AERMOD. Additionally, the
year-by-year comparisons to the
monitored data showed that the
alternative model produced
underestimates for one year,
overestimates for one year, and very
similar estimates for the third year.
There was considerable year-to-year
variability, as one would expect.
Consequently, the alternative model was
viewed to be acceptable based on the
theoretical aspects of its development,
PO 00000
Frm 00059
Fmt 4702
Sfmt 4702
the superior performance compared to
the recommended model, and the
overall unbiased nature of the
alternative model’s predictions.
Wisconsin’s alternate model
characterization was reviewed and
concurred with on May 28, 2021 by
EPA’s Model Clearinghouse under
EPA’s Guideline on Air Quality Models
criteria for alternate models. EPA
Region 5’s request for concurrence and
EPA’s Model Clearinghouse
concurrence letters are included in the
docket for this action.
C. Meteorological Data
Wisconsin used Rhinelander-Oneida
County Airport (KRHI) surface data and
Green Bay, Wisconsin upper air data,
years 2011–1015, for modeling the
Rhinelander area. The surface station is
located less than 5 kilometers from
Ahlstrom-Munksjo¨ and is located in
similar rolling terrain. Given the close
proximity of the surface station and the
similarity in surrounding terrain, EPA
finds the use of the KRHI airport data,
combined with the Green Bay upper air
data to be appropriate, representative
meteorological data sets for assessing
dispersion at the facility.
D. Emissions Data
Wisconsin included all point sources
within 50 kilometers of Rhinelander in
its modeling analysis. These sources
included boilers B26 (sometimes coal
fired) and B28 (natural gas and oil fired)
at Ahlstrom-Munksjo¨, the Kerry Inc.
facility (formerly Red Arrow Foods),
and the PCA facility. Wisconsin found
that no other sources were close enough
to cause significant concentration
gradients. Boilers B20, B21, B22, and
B23 at Ahlstrom-Munksjo¨ were shut
down in 2014, and their
decommissioning is included in a
federally enforceable permit, so they
were not included in the modeling
analysis. Wisconsin determined that
boiler B26, which vents through stack
S09, was primarily responsible for the
Rhinelander area nonattainment
designation, as the modeling results
show that boiler B26 accounts for 94–95
percent of the total SO2 concentration in
the area depending on the boiler load.
Therefore, boiler B26 was modeled at
both minimum and maximum loads.
The Kerry Inc. and PCA sources, as well
as Ahlstrom-Munksjo¨ boiler B28, were
modeled at their current permitted
maximum allowable SO2 emissions, as
contained in federally enforceable
permits.
E. Emission Limits
An important prerequisite for
approval of an attainment plan is that
E:\FR\FM\22JYP1.SGM
22JYP1
Federal Register / Vol. 86, No. 138 / Thursday, July 22, 2021 / Proposed Rules
lotter on DSK11XQN23PROD with PROPOSALS1
the emission limits that provide for
attainment be quantifiable, fully
enforceable, replicable, and
accountable. See General Preamble at
13567–68. The limit for AhlstromMunksjo¨ is expressed as a 24-hour
average limit. Therefore, part of the
review of Wisconsin’s attainment plan
must address the use of this limit, both
with respect to the general suitability of
using such limits for this purpose and
with respect to whether the particular
limits included in the plan have been
suitably demonstrated to provide for
attainment. The first subsection that
follows addresses the enforceability of
the limits in the plan, and the second
subsection that follows addresses in
particular the 24-hour average limit.
1. Enforceability
In preparing its plan, Wisconsin
adopted a revision to a previously
approved construction permit, Air
Pollution Control Construction Permit
Revision 15–DMM–128–R1, governing
the Ahlstrom-Munksjo¨ SO2 emissions.
These permit revisions were adopted by
Wisconsin following established,
appropriate public review procedures.
The revised permit limits boiler B26
emission rates to 2.38 pounds per
million British Thermal Unit (lbs/
MMBTU) on a 24-hour average basis.
This limit is more stringent than the
previously approved limit of 3.0 lbs/
MMBTU on a 24-hour average basis.
The 3.0 lbs/MMBTU limit was included
as part of Wisconsin’s 2016 attainment
demonstration that EPA disapproved in
its March 23, 2021 rulemaking. In
accordance with EPA policy, the 24hour average limit is set at a lower level
than the emission rate used in the
attainment demonstration; the
relationship between these two values is
discussed in more detail in the
following section. Additionally, the
revised permit limits the maximum heat
input to boiler B26 to 260 MMBTU/hour
and requires that stack SO9 be a
minimum of 75 meters (246 feet) above
ground, as opposed to the previous
boiler B26 limit of 300 MMBTU/hour
and requirement that stack S09 be a
minimum of 90 meters (296 feet) off the
ground.7 The permit compliance date
for Ahlstrom-Munksjo¨ is December 31,
2021. EPA finds that this construction
permit revision provides for permanent
enforceability.
2. Longer Term Average Limits
Ahlstrom-Munksjo¨ requested a limit
expressed as a 24-hour average limit in
7 For
more discussion on stack height, see EPA’s
November 25, 2020 proposed partial approval and
partial disapproval (85 FR 75273).
VerDate Sep<11>2014
16:30 Jul 21, 2021
Jkt 253001
order to have a more robust limit, i.e.,
a limit based on more values that would
be less prone to indicate noncompliance
based on ordinary fluctuations in
emissions. In accordance with EPA’s
April 2014 guidance for SO2
nonattainment plans, Wisconsin
therefore adjusted its limit, reducing the
limit for purposes of assuring
comparable stringency to the 1-hour
limit that it otherwise would have
adopted.
Although compliance with this limit
will be determined on the basis of
continuous emissions monitoring
system (CEMS) data, the facility does
not have a sufficient historical record of
CEMS data to be able to evaluate sourcespecific emissions variability for
purposes of determining a sourcespecific factor by which to adjust the 1hour limit for this source. Instead,
Wisconsin determined its 24-hour
average limit by applying one of the
national average adjustment factors
listed in appendix D of EPA’s guidance.
In particular, Wisconsin set its 24-hour
average limit at 93 percent of the
modeled emission rate, reflecting the
national average adjustment factor that
EPA found among facilities without
emission control equipment. While the
facility operates dry sorbent injection
equipment to control hydrogen chloride
(HCl) emissions so as to meet the
maximum available control technology
requirements for industrial boilers, HCl
is generally much easier to control than
SO2, and the information about the
facility’s sorbent usage provided in
Wisconsin’s submittal supports a
conclusion that sorbent injection likely
reduces SO2 emissions by less than one
percent. Therefore, sorbent usage may
be presumed to have very little impact
on the variability of SO2 emissions at
this facility, and the national average
adjustment factor for facilities without
control equipment is likely to provide
the best estimate of the appropriate
degree of adjustment to determine a 24hour limit that is comparably stringent
to the 1-hour limit that otherwise would
have been established.
Wisconsin set its limit at 2.38 lbs/
MMBTU, corresponding to 93 percent of
the 2.56 lbs/MMBTU emission rate that
Wisconsin modeled.8 Although
appendix D of EPA’s guidance reports
average adjustment factors based on
99th percentile values among lbs/hr
data rather than among lbs/MMBTU
data, EPA generally finds that lbs/hr
data show greater variability than lbs/
8 To be precise, the emission rates that Wisconsin
modeled reflected 2.56 lbs/MMBTU times the
allowable operating rate of 260 MMBTU/hour times
the hour-specific downwash multiplier discussed
above.
PO 00000
Frm 00060
Fmt 4702
Sfmt 4702
38649
MMBTU data, and so use of an
adjustment factor determined from
analysis of lbs/hr data is likely to yield
a conservative (more stringent) result.
The Ahlstrom-Munksjo¨ 24-hour
average SO2 emissions will be
calculated by summing the emissions
rates of each 1-hour operating period
and dividing by the number of operating
hours for that calendar day. Although
EPA recommends that the average
values be calculated by summing the
total emissions and dividing by the total
heat input for each day, this approach
is infeasible for Ahlstrom-Munksjo¨.
Because Ahlstrom-Munksjo¨ is using
Method 19, calculating lbs/MMBTU SO2
concentration without evaluating either
the mass or the heat input,9 the facility
does not obtain the hourly mass or heat
input values to support a calculation of
daily total mass or daily total heat input.
As the differences in results of the two
approaches are expected to be minimal,
EPA concurs with Wisconsin’s
approach.
Ahlstrom-Munksjo¨ requested that
Wisconsin specify compliance
determination procedures for days with
fewer hours of data (generally, days
with fewer hours of operation) in order
to ensure robust compliance
determinations, specifically to ensure
that compliance is determined on the
basis of a minimum of 18 hours of data.
For days with fewer than 24 but at least
18 hours of data, compliance will be
determined by averaging the emissions
rates from the hours of operation. For
operating days with fewer than 18 hours
of data, compliance will be determined
by averaging all the values from that day
along with all the values from the most
recent day with at least 18 hours of
valid data. EPA supports the principle
of ensuring that compliance with a longterm average limit should be based on
a robust data set. Wisconsin’s approach
also is consistent with the principle that
the facility shall be accountable for
emissions at all times, i.e., that days
with fewer hours of data shall not be
disregarded but rather shall be included
in a suitably constructed compliance
determination. Therefore, EPA
concludes that Wisconsin is using an
appropriate approach for addressing
days with fewer hours of data.
Based on a review of the State’s
submittal, EPA believes that the 24hour-average limit for Boiler B26 at
Ahlstrom-Munksjo¨ provides a suitable
alternative to establishing a 1-hour
average emission limit for this source.
9 ‘‘Method 19—Determination of Sulfur Dioxide
Removal Efficiency and Particulate Matter, Sulfur
Dioxide, and Nitrogen Oxide Emission Rates’’ (40
CFR part 60, appendix A).
E:\FR\FM\22JYP1.SGM
22JYP1
38650
Federal Register / Vol. 86, No. 138 / Thursday, July 22, 2021 / Proposed Rules
EPA finds that Wisconsin used an
appropriate adjustment factor, yielding
an emission limit that has comparable
stringency to the 1-hour average limit
that the State determined would
otherwise have been necessary to
provide for attainment. While the 24average limit allows occasions in which
emissions may be higher than the level
that would be allowed with the 1-hour
limit, the State’s limit compensates by
requiring average emissions to be lower
than the level that would otherwise
have been required by a 1-hour average
limit. For the reasons described above
and explained in more detail in EPA’s
April 2014 guidance for SO2
nonattainment plans, EPA finds that
appropriately set longer term average
limits provide a reasonable basis by
which nonattainment plans may
provide for attainment. Based on its
review of this general information as
well as the particular information in
Wisconsin’s plan, EPA finds that the 24hour-average limit for boiler B26 at
Ahlstrom-Munksjo¨ is a suitable
alternative to establishing a 1-hour limit
on emissions from this boiler.
F. Background Concentrations
Wisconsin determined background
concentrations for the Rhinelander area
using 2013–2015 data from the Horicon
(Dodge County) monitor, which is
approximately 250 kilometers south of
Rhinelander. The background
concentration values that Wisconsin
used varied by month and hour of the
day and ranged from 1.40 micrograms
per cubic meter (mg/m3) to 14.1 mg/m3
with an average value of 4.87 mg/m3.
EPA agrees that the values from the
Horicon monitor are representative for
background concentration estimates.
lotter on DSK11XQN23PROD with PROPOSALS1
G. Summary of Results
Modeling for the Rhinelander Area in
Wisconsin’s March 2021 submittal
showed a design value of 74.8 ppb
(195.8 mg/m3). This resulted from
modeling the Ahlstrom-Munksjo¨ boiler
B26 at maximum load, combined with
all other area sources and including a
background concentration. The run was
conducted with emissions at 2.56 lbs/
MMBTU, a level that corresponds in
stringency to the 2.38 lbs/MMBTU 24hour average emission limit that
Wisconsin adopted and submitted and
is more stringent than the previous 24hour emission limit of 3.0 lbs/MMBTU.
Therefore, EPA concludes that
Wisconsin’s plan provides for
attainment in this area.
VerDate Sep<11>2014
16:30 Jul 21, 2021
Jkt 253001
V. Review of Other Plan Requirements
A. RACM/RACT
CAA section 172(c)(1) states that
nonattainment plans shall provide for
the implementation of all RACM as
expeditiously as practicable (including
such reductions in emissions from
existing sources in the area as may be
obtained through the adoption, at a
minimum, of RACT) and shall provide
for attainment of the national primary
ambient air quality standards. CAA
section 172(c)(6) requires plans to
include enforceable emissions
limitations, and such other control
measures as may be necessary or
appropriate to provide for attainment of
the NAAQS. In its March 23, 2021
rulemaking, EPA disapproved
Wisconsin’s 2016 attainment plan
because the Ahlstrom-Munksjo¨
emissions limits (3.0 lbs/MMBTU 24hour average SO2 limit and 300
MMBTU/hr operating limit) provided in
the plan were not calculated in
compliance with the stack height
regulations. Therefore, the plan could
not be considered to provide an
appropriate attainment demonstration,
and it did not demonstrate RACM/
RACT or meet the requirement for
necessary emissions limitations or
control measures. Wisconsin’s revised
plan for attaining the 1-hour SO2
NAAQS in the Rhinelander area is
based on a variety of measures,
including more stringent SO2 emissions
and operating limits (2.38 lbs/MMBTU
24-hour average SO2 limit and 260
MMBTU/hr operating limit) for
Ahlstrom-Munksjo¨, which were
calculated in compliance with the stack
height regulations. Wisconsin’s plan
requires compliance with these
measures by December 31, 2021.
Wisconsin has determined that these
measures suffice to provide for
attainment. EPA concurs and proposes
to conclude that the State has satisfied
the requirement in section 172(c)(1) and
(6) to adopt and submit all RACM/RACT
and emissions limitations or control
measures as needed to attain the
standards as expeditiously as
practicable.
B. Reasonable Further Progress (RFP)
In its March 23, 2021 rulemaking,
EPA concluded that Wisconsin had not
satisfied the requirement in section
172(c)(2) to provide for RFP toward
attainment. Wisconsin’s 2016
attainment plan did not demonstrate
that the implementation of the control
measures required under the plan were
sufficient to provide for attainment of
the NAAQS in the Rhinelander SO2
nonattainment area consistent with EPA
PO 00000
Frm 00061
Fmt 4702
Sfmt 4702
requirements (in particular consistent
with EPA stack height regulations).
Therefore, a compliance schedule to
implement those controls was not
sufficient to provide for RFP.
Wisconsin’s revised plan requires
compliance by December 31, 2021.
Wisconsin concludes that this is an
ambitious compliance schedule, as
described in April 2014 guidance for
SO2 nonattainment plans, and
concludes that this plan therefore
provides for RFP in accordance with the
approach to RFP described in EPA’s
2014 guidance. EPA concurs and
proposes to conclude that the plan
provides for RFP.
C. Contingency Measures
As noted above, EPA guidance
describes special features of SO2
planning that influence the suitability of
alternative means of addressing the
requirement in section 172(c)(9) for
contingency measures for SO2, such that
in particular an appropriate means of
satisfying this requirement is for the
State to have a comprehensive
enforcement program that identifies
sources of violations of the SO2 NAAQS
and to undertake an aggressive followup for compliance and enforcement.
Wisconsin’s plan provides for satisfying
the contingency measure requirement in
this manner.10 EPA concurs and
proposes to approve Wisconsin’s plan
for meeting the contingency measure
requirement in this manner.
VI. What action is EPA taking?
EPA is proposing to approve
Wisconsin’s SIP submission, which the
State submitted to EPA on March 29,
2021 to supplement the prior SIP it had
submitted on January 22, 2016 and
supplemented on July 18, 2016, and
November 29, 2016, for attaining the
2010 1-hour SO2 NAAQS for the
Rhinelander area and for meeting other
nonattainment area planning
requirements. This SO2 attainment plan
includes Wisconsin’s attainment
demonstration for the Rhinelander area.
The plan also addresses requirements
for RFP, RACT/RACM, and contingency
measures. EPA has previously
concluded that Wisconsin has
addressed the requirements for
10 Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources
(WDNR) maintains an enforcement program to
ensure compliance with SIP requirements. The
Bureau of Air Management houses an active
statewide compliance and enforcement team that
works in all geographic regions of the State. WDNR
refers actions as necessary to the Wisconsin
Department of Justice with the involvement of
WDNR. Wis. Stats. 285.83 and Wis. Stats. 285.87
provide WDNR with the authority to enforce
violations and assess penalties, to ensure that
required measures are ultimately implemented.
E:\FR\FM\22JYP1.SGM
22JYP1
lotter on DSK11XQN23PROD with PROPOSALS1
Federal Register / Vol. 86, No. 138 / Thursday, July 22, 2021 / Proposed Rules
emissions inventories for the
Rhinelander area and nonattainment
area NSR. EPA has determined that
Wisconsin’s Rhinelander SO2 plan
meets applicable requirements of
section 172 of the CAA.
Wisconsin’s Rhinelander SO2 plan is
based on the emissions limits specified
in Air Pollution Control Construction
Permit Revision 15–DMM–128–R1.
Wisconsin seeks EPA to approve several
elements of the permit, including the
permit cover sheet, emissions
limitations for Ahlstrom-Munksjo¨
(Conditions A.3.a.(1)–(3)), compliance
demonstration (Conditions A.3.b.(1)–
(3)), reference test methods,
recordkeeping and monitoring
requirements (Conditions A.3.c.(1)–(5)
and A.3.c.(7)–(9)), and the effective date
(Condition YYY.1.a.(1)). Wisconsin did
not seek approval of limits and test
methods associated with oil sulfur
content. Wisconsin stated that limits on
the portion of emissions from oil are
unnecessary to comply with the 24-hour
SO2 emission limit and the boiler heat
input limit, and attainment is ensured
by limits on total emissions from boiler
B26. EPA concurs with Wisconsin’s
rationale, and therefore EPA is
proposing to approve these elements of
the permit.
Additionally, EPA is proposing to
replace the previously approved consent
and administrative orders (AM–94–38
and AM–15–01) governing the
Ahlstrom-Munksjo¨ emission limits 11
with the elements of Wisconsin’s Air
Pollution Control Construction Permit
Revision 15–DMM–128–R1 specified
above. This replacement would not be
effective until December 31, 2021,
which is the revised permit compliance
date for Ahlstrom-Munksjo¨. Section
110(l) of the CAA states that EPA ‘‘shall
not approve a revision of a plan if the
revision would interfere with any
applicable requirement . . .’’ Since
Permit 15–DMM–128–R1 contains a
more stringent SO2 limit for AhlstromMunksjo¨ (2.38 lbs/MMBTU on a 24-hour
average basis) than the previous orders
(3.0 lbs/MMBTU on a 24-hour average
basis), and since Wisconsin has
demonstrated that the limit in Permit
15–DMM–128–R1 provides for
attainment without need for the limits
in the prior orders, EPA concludes that
Section 110(l) does not prohibit EPA
from replacing the prior orders with the
newer permit, and EPA is proposing to
11 Orders
AM–94–38 and AM–15–01 were issued
to the facility’s prior owner, Expera, but the orders
continued to limit the facility’s emissions after it
was acquired by Ahlstrom-Munksjo¨.
VerDate Sep<11>2014
16:30 Jul 21, 2021
Jkt 253001
act in accordance with this Wisconsin
request.
EPA is taking public comments for
thirty days following the publication of
this proposed action in the Federal
Register. EPA will take all comments
into consideration in the final action. If
this approval is finalized, it would
terminate the sanctions clock started
under CAA section 179 resulting from
EPA’s partial disapproval of the prior
SIP, as well as EPA’s duty to promulgate
a FIP for the area under CAA section
110(c) that resulted from the previous
partial disapproval.
VII. Incorporation by Reference
In this rule, EPA is proposing to
include in a final EPA rule regulatory
text that includes incorporation by
reference. In accordance with
requirements of 1 CFR 51.5, EPA is
proposing to incorporate by reference
the specific portions of Wisconsin Air
Pollution Control Construction Permit
Revision 15–DMM–128–R1, effective
December 31, 2021, as described in
section VI. above. EPA has made, and
will continue to make, these documents
generally available through
www.regulations.gov and at the EPA
Region 5 Office (please contact the
person identified in the FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION CONTACT section of this
preamble for more information).
Also in this document, as described in
section VI, EPA is proposing to remove
provisions of the EPA-Approved
Wisconsin Source Specific
Requirements from the Wisconsin State
Implementation Plan, which is
incorporated by reference in accordance
with the requirements of 1 CFR part 51.
VIII. Statutory and Executive Order
Reviews
Under the CAA, the Administrator is
required to approve a SIP submission
that complies with the provisions of the
CAA and applicable Federal regulations.
42 U.S.C. 7410(k); 40 CFR 52.02(a).
Thus, in reviewing SIP submissions,
EPA’s role is to approve state choices,
provided that they meet the criteria of
the CAA. Accordingly, this action
merely approves state law as meeting
Federal requirements and does not
impose additional requirements beyond
those imposed by state law. For that
reason, this action:
• Is not a significant regulatory action
subject to review by the Office of
Management and Budget under
Executive Orders 12866 (58 FR 51735,
October 4, 1993) and 13563 (76 FR 3821,
January 21, 2011);
• Does not impose an information
collection burden under the provisions
PO 00000
Frm 00062
Fmt 4702
Sfmt 9990
38651
of the Paperwork Reduction Act (44
U.S.C. 3501 et seq.);
• Is certified as not having a
significant economic impact on a
substantial number of small entities
under the Regulatory Flexibility Act (5
U.S.C. 601 et seq.);
• Does not contain any unfunded
mandate or significantly or uniquely
affect small governments, as described
in the Unfunded Mandates Reform Act
of 1995 (Pub. L. 104–4);
• Does not have federalism
implications as specified in Executive
Order 13132 (64 FR 43255, August 10,
1999);
• Is not an economically significant
regulatory action based on health or
safety risks subject to Executive Order
13045 (62 FR 19885, April 23, 1997);
• Is not a significant regulatory action
subject to Executive Order 13211 (66 FR
28355, May 22, 2001);
• Is not subject to requirements of
Section 12(d) of the National
Technology Transfer and Advancement
Act of 1995 (15 U.S.C. 272 note) because
application of those requirements would
be inconsistent with the CAA; and
• Does not provide EPA with the
discretionary authority to address, as
appropriate, disproportionate human
health or environmental effects, using
practicable and legally permissible
methods, under Executive Order 12898
(59 FR 7629, February 16, 1994).
In addition, the SIP is not approved
to apply on any Indian reservation land
or in any other area where EPA or an
Indian tribe has demonstrated that a
tribe has jurisdiction. In those areas of
Indian country, the rule does not have
tribal implications and will not impose
substantial direct costs on tribal
governments or preempt tribal law as
specified by Executive Order 13175 (65
FR 67249, November 9, 2000).
List of Subjects in 40 CFR Part 52
Environmental protection, Air
pollution control, Incorporation by
reference, Intergovernmental relations,
Reporting and recordkeeping
requirements, Sulfur oxides.
Dated: July 13, 2021.
Cheryl Newton,
Acting Regional Administrator, Region 5.
[FR Doc. 2021–15464 Filed 7–21–21; 8:45 am]
BILLING CODE 6560–50–P
E:\FR\FM\22JYP1.SGM
22JYP1
Agencies
[Federal Register Volume 86, Number 138 (Thursday, July 22, 2021)]
[Proposed Rules]
[Pages 38643-38651]
From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office [www.gpo.gov]
[FR Doc No: 2021-15464]
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
40 CFR Part 52
[EPA-R05-OAR-2021-0256; FRL-8692-01-R5]
Air Plan Approval; Wisconsin; Attainment Plan for the Rhinelander
SO2 Nonattainment Area
AGENCY: Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).
ACTION: Proposed rule.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
SUMMARY: The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is proposing to
approve the State Implementation Plan (SIP) revision submitted by
Wisconsin on March 29, 2021, which amends a SIP submission previously
submitted to EPA on January 22, 2016 and supplemented on July 18, 2016,
and November 29, 2016, for attaining the 1-hour sulfur dioxide
(SO2) primary national ambient air quality standard (NAAQS)
for the Rhinelander SO2 nonattainment area. This plan
(herein referred to as Wisconsin's Rhinelander SO2 plan or
plan) includes Wisconsin's attainment demonstration and other elements
required under the Clean Air Act (CAA). In addition to an attainment
demonstration, the plan addresses the requirement for meeting
reasonable further progress (RFP) toward attainment of the NAAQS,
reasonably available control measures and reasonably available control
technology (RACM/RACT), and contingency measures. This action
supplements a prior action which found that Wisconsin had satisfied
emission inventory and new source review (NSR) requirements for this
area, but had not met requirements for the elements proposed to be
approved here. EPA is proposing to conclude that Wisconsin has
appropriately demonstrated that the plan provisions provide for
attainment of the 2010 1-hour primary SO2 NAAQS in the
Rhinelander SO2 nonattainment area and that the plan meets
the other applicable requirements under the CAA.
DATES: Comments must be received on or before August 23, 2021.
ADDRESSES: Submit your comments, identified by Docket ID No. EPA-R05-
OAR-2021-0256 at https://www.regulations.gov, or via email to
[email protected]. For comments submitted at Regulations.gov,
follow the online instructions for submitting comments. Once submitted,
comments cannot be edited or removed from Regulations.gov. For either
manner of submission, EPA may publish any comment received to its
public docket. Do not submit electronically any information you
consider to be Confidential Business Information (CBI) or other
information whose disclosure is restricted by statute. Multimedia
submissions (audio, video, etc.) must be accompanied by a written
comment. The written comment is considered the official comment and
should include discussion of all points you wish to make. EPA will
generally not consider comments or comment contents located outside of
the primary submission (i.e., on the web, cloud, or other file sharing
system). For additional submission methods, please contact the person
identified in the FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT section. For the full
EPA public comment policy, information about CBI or multimedia
submissions, and general guidance on making effective comments, please
visit https://www2.epa.gov/dockets/commenting-epa-dockets.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Abigail Teener, Environmental
Engineer, Attainment Planning and Maintenance Section, Air Programs
Branch (AR-18J), Environmental Protection Agency, Region 5, 77 West
Jackson Boulevard, Chicago, Illinois 60604, (312) 353-7314,
[email protected]. The EPA Region 5 office is open from 8:30 a.m.
to 4:30 p.m., Monday through Friday, excluding Federal holidays and
facility closures due to COVID-19.
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: This SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION section is
arranged as follows:
I. Why was Wisconsin required to submit an SO2 plan for
the Rhinelander area?
II. Requirements for SO2 Nonattainment Area Plans
III. Attainment Demonstration and Longer Term Averaging
IV. Review of Modeled Attainment Plan
A. Model Selection
B. Simulation of Downwash
C. Meteorological Data
D. Emissions Data
E. Emission Limits
F. Background Concentrations
G. Summary of Results
V. Review of Other Plan Requirements
A. RACM/RACT
B. Reasonable Further Progress (RFP)
C. Contingency Measures
VI. What action is EPA taking?
VII. Incorporation by Reference
VIII. Statutory and Executive Order Reviews
I. Why was Wisconsin required to submit an SO2 plan for the Rhinelander
area?
On June 22, 2010, EPA promulgated a new 1-hour primary
SO2 NAAQS of 75 parts per billion (ppb), which is met at an
ambient air quality monitoring site when the 3-year average of the
annual 99th percentile of daily maximum 1-
[[Page 38644]]
hour average concentrations does not exceed 75 ppb, as determined in
accordance with appendix T of 40 CFR part 50. See 75 FR 35520, codified
at 40 CFR 50.17(a)-(b). On August 5, 2013, EPA designated 29 areas of
the country as nonattainment for the 2010 SO2 NAAQS,
including the Rhinelander area within the State of Wisconsin. See 78 FR
47191, codified at 40 CFR part 81, subpart C. These area designations
were effective October 4, 2013. Section 191 of the CAA directs states
to submit SIPs for areas designated as nonattainment for the
SO2 NAAQS to EPA within 18 months of the effective date of
the designation, i.e., by no later than April 4, 2015 in this case.
These SIPs are required to demonstrate that their respective areas will
attain the NAAQS as expeditiously as practicable, but no later than 5
years from the effective date of designation, which is October 4, 2018.
In response to the requirement for SO2 nonattainment
plan submittals, Wisconsin submitted a nonattainment plan for the
Rhinelander area on January 22, 2016, and supplemented it on July 18,
2016, and November 29, 2016. On March 23, 2021,\1\ EPA partially
approved and partially disapproved Wisconsin's Rhinelander
SO2 plan as submitted and supplemented in 2016. EPA approved
the base-year emissions inventory and affirmed that the new source
review requirements for the area had previously been met.\2\ EPA also
approved the SO2 emission limit for Ahlstrom-Munksj[ouml]'s
Rhinelander facility (Ahlstrom-Munksj[ouml]) (formerly Expera Specialty
Solutions LLC (Expera)) as SIP-strengthening. At that time, EPA
disapproved the attainment demonstration, since the plan relied on
credit for more stack height than is creditable under the regulations
for good engineering practice (GEP) stack height. Additionally, EPA
disapproved the plan for failing to meet the requirements for meeting
RFP toward attainment of the NAAQS, RACM/RACT, emission limitations and
control measures as necessary to attain the NAAQS, and contingency
measures.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\1\ 86 FR 15418 (March 23, 2021).
\2\ 79 FR 60064 (October 6, 2014).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Under sections 110(c) and 179(a)-(b) of the CAA, a disapproval in
whole or in part of a state submittal initiates a Federal
Implementation Plan (FIP) clock and sanctions clocks, respectively,
which are terminated by an EPA rulemaking approving a revised plan. On
March 29, 2021, Wisconsin submitted a permit containing a revised
emission limit and supplemental information in order to remedy the
plan's deficiencies specified in EPA's March 23, 2021 rulemaking, along
with a request that EPA approve its revised plan for the Rhinelander
area.
The remainder of this action describes the requirements that
SO2 nonattainment plans must meet in order to obtain EPA
approval, provides a review of Wisconsin's revised plan with respect to
these requirements, and describes EPA's proposed action on the plan.
II. Requirements for SO2 Nonattainment Area Plans
Nonattainment SIPs must meet the applicable requirements of the
CAA, and specifically CAA sections 172, 191 and 192. EPA's regulations
governing nonattainment SIPs are set forth at 40 CFR part 51, with
specific procedural requirements and control strategy requirements
residing at subparts F and G, respectively. Soon after Congress enacted
the 1990 Amendments to the CAA, EPA issued comprehensive guidance on
SIPs, in a document entitled the ``General Preamble for the
Implementation of Title I of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990,''
published at 57 FR 13498 (April 16, 1992) (General Preamble). Among
other things, the General Preamble addressed SO2 SIPs and
fundamental principles for SIP control strategies. Id., at 13545-49,
13567-68. On April 23, 2014, EPA issued recommended guidance for
meeting the statutory requirements in SO2 SIPs, in a
document entitled, ``Guidance for 1-Hour SO2 Nonattainment
Area SIP Submissions,'' available at https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2016-06/documents/20140423guidance_nonattainment_sip.pdf. In this guidance EPA described
the statutory requirements for a complete nonattainment area SIP, which
includes: An accurate emissions inventory of current emissions for all
sources of SO2 within the nonattainment area; an attainment
demonstration; demonstration of RFP; implementation of RACM (including
RACT); NSR; emissions limitations and control measures as necessary to
attain the NAAQS; and adequate contingency measures for the affected
area. EPA already concluded in its March 23, 2021 rulemaking that
Wisconsin has met the emissions inventory and NSR requirements.
In order for EPA to fully approve a SIP as meeting the requirements
of CAA sections 110, 172 and 191-192 and EPA's regulations at 40 CFR
part 51, the SIP for the affected area needs to demonstrate to EPA's
satisfaction that each of the aforementioned requirements have been
met. Under CAA sections 110(l) and 193, EPA may not approve a SIP that
would interfere with any applicable requirement concerning NAAQS
attainment and RFP, or any other applicable requirement, and no
requirement in effect (or required to be adopted by an order,
settlement, agreement, or plan in effect before November 15, 1990) in
any area which is a nonattainment area for any air pollutant, may be
modified in any manner unless it ensures equivalent or greater emission
reductions of such air pollutant.
III. Attainment Demonstration and Longer Term Averaging
CAA section 172(c)(1) directs states with areas designated as
nonattainment to demonstrate that the submitted plan provides for
attainment of the NAAQS. 40 CFR part 51, subpart G, further delineates
the control strategy requirements that SIPs must meet, and EPA has long
required that all SIPs and control strategies reflect four fundamental
principles of quantification, enforceability, replicability, and
accountability. General Preamble at 13567-68. SO2 attainment
plans must consist of two components: (1) Emission limits and other
control measures that ensure implementation of permanent, enforceable
and necessary emission controls, and (2) a modeling analysis which
meets the requirements of 40 CFR part 51, appendix W, which
demonstrates that these emission limits and control measures provide
for timely attainment of the primary SO2 NAAQS as
expeditiously as practicable, but by no later than the attainment date
for the affected area. In all cases, the emission limits and control
measures must be accompanied by appropriate methods and conditions to
determine compliance with the respective emission limits and control
measures and must be quantifiable (i.e., a specific amount of emission
reduction can be ascribed to the measures), fully enforceable
(specifying clear, unambiguous and measurable requirements for which
compliance can be practicably determined), replicable (the procedures
for determining compliance are sufficiently specific and non-subjective
so that two independent entities applying the procedures would obtain
the same result), and accountable (source specific limits must be
permanent and must reflect the assumptions used in the SIP
demonstrations).
EPA's April 2014 guidance recommends that the emission limits be
expressed as short-term average limits (e.g., addressing emissions
averaged
[[Page 38645]]
over one or three hours), but also describes the option to utilize
emission limits with longer averaging times of up to 30 days so long as
the state meets various suggested criteria. See 2014 guidance, pp. 22
to 39. The guidance recommends that, should states and sources utilize
longer averaging times, the longer term average limit should be set at
an adjusted level that reflects a stringency comparable to the 1-hour
average limit at the critical emission value shown to provide for
attainment that the plan otherwise would have set.
The April 2014 guidance provides an extensive discussion of EPA's
rationale for concluding that appropriately set comparably stringent
limitations based on averaging times as long as 30 days can be found to
provide for attainment of the 2010 SO2 NAAQS. In evaluating
this option, EPA considered the nature of the standard, conducted
detailed analyses of the impact of use of 30-day average limits on the
prospects for attaining the standard, and carefully reviewed how best
to achieve an appropriate balance among the various factors that
warrant consideration in judging whether a state's plan provides for
attainment. Id. at pp. 22 to 39. See also id. at appendices B, C, and
D.
As specified in 40 CFR 50.17(b), the 1-hour primary SO2
NAAQS is met at an ambient air quality monitoring site when the 3-year
average of the annual 99th percentile of daily maximum 1-hour
concentrations is less than or equal to 75 ppb. In a year with 365 days
of valid monitoring data, the 99th percentile would be the fourth
highest daily maximum 1-hour value. The 2010 SO2 NAAQS,
including this form of determining compliance with the standard, was
upheld by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia
Circuit in Nat'l Envt'l Dev. Ass'n's Clean Air Project v. EPA, 686 F.3d
803 (D.C. Cir. 2012). Because the standard has this form, a single
exceedance does not create a violation of the standard. Instead, at
issue is whether a source operating in compliance with a properly set
longer term average could cause exceedances, and if so the resulting
frequency and magnitude of such exceedances, and in particular whether
EPA can have reasonable confidence that a properly set longer term
average limit will provide that the average fourth highest daily
maximum value will be at or below 75 ppb. A synopsis of how EPA judges
whether such plans ``provide for attainment,'' based on modeling of
projected allowable emissions and in light of the NAAQS' form for
determining attainment at monitoring sites follows.
For SO2 plans based on 1-hour emission limits, the
standard approach is to conduct modeling using fixed emission rates.
The maximum emission rate that would be modeled to result in attainment
(i.e., in an ``average year'' \3\ which shows three days with maximum
hourly levels exceeding 75 ppb) is labeled the ``critical emission
value.'' The modeling process for identifying this critical emissions
value inherently considers the numerous variables that affect ambient
concentrations of SO2, such as meteorological data,
background concentrations, and topography. In the standard approach,
the state would then provide for attainment by setting a continuously
applicable 1-hour emission limit at this critical emission value.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\3\ An ``average year'' is used to mean a year with average air
quality. While 40 CFR 50 appendix T provides for averaging three
years of 99th percentile daily maximum values (e.g., the fourth
highest maximum daily concentration in a year with 365 days with
valid data), this discussion and an example below uses a single
``average year'' in order to simplify the illustration of relevant
principles.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
EPA recognizes that some sources have highly variable emissions,
for example due to variations in fuel sulfur content and operating
rate, that can make it extremely difficult, even with a well-designed
control strategy, to ensure in practice that emissions for any given
hour do not exceed the critical emission value. EPA also acknowledges
the concern that longer term emission limits can allow short periods
with emissions above the ``critical emissions value,'' which, if
coincident with meteorological conditions conducive to high
SO2 concentrations, could in turn create the possibility of
a NAAQS exceedance occurring on a day when an exceedance would not have
occurred if emissions were continuously controlled at the level
corresponding to the critical emission value. However, for several
reasons, EPA believes that the approach recommended in its guidance
document suitably addresses this concern. First, from a practical
perspective, EPA expects the actual emission profile of a source
subject to an appropriately set longer term average limit to be similar
to the emission profile of a source subject to an analogous 1-hour
average limit. EPA expects this similarity because it has recommended
that the longer term average limit be set at a level that is comparably
stringent to the otherwise applicable 1-hour limit (reflecting a
downward adjustment from the critical emissions value) and that takes
the source's emissions profile into account. As a result, EPA expects
either form of emission limit to yield comparable air quality.
Second, from a more theoretical perspective, EPA has compared the
likely air quality with a source having maximum allowable emissions
under an appropriately set longer term limit, as compared to the likely
air quality with the source having maximum allowable emissions under
the comparable 1-hour limit. In this comparison, in the 1-hour average
limit scenario, the source is presumed at all times to emit at the
critical emission level, and in the longer term average limit scenario,
the source is presumed occasionally to emit more than the critical
emission value but on average, and presumably at most times, to emit
well below the critical emission value. In an ``average year,''
compliance with the 1-hour limit is expected to result in three
exceedance days (i.e., three days with hourly values above 75 ppb) and
a fourth day with a maximum hourly value at 75 ppb. By comparison, with
the source complying with a longer term limit, it is possible that
additional exceedances would occur that would not occur in the 1-hour
limit scenario (if emissions exceed the critical emission value at
times when meteorology is conducive to poor air quality). However, this
comparison must also factor in the likelihood that exceedances that
would be expected in the 1-hour limit scenario would not occur in the
longer term limit scenario. This result arises because the longer term
limit requires lower emissions most of the time (because the limit is
set well below the critical emission value), so a source complying with
an appropriately set longer term limit is likely to have lower
emissions at critical times than would be the case if the source were
emitting as allowed with a 1-hour limit.
As a hypothetical example to illustrate these points, suppose a
source always emits 1,000 pounds of SO2 per hour (lbs/hr),
which results in air quality at the level of the NAAQS (i.e., results
in a design value of 75 ppb). Suppose further that in an ``average
year,'' these emissions cause the 5 highest maximum daily average 1-
hour concentrations to be 100 ppb, 90 ppb, 80 ppb, 75 ppb, and 70 ppb.
Then suppose that the source becomes subject to a 30-day average
emission limit of 700 lbs/hr. It is theoretically possible for a source
meeting this limit to have emissions that occasionally exceed 1,000
lbs/hr, but with a typical emissions profile emissions would much more
commonly be between 600 and 800 lbs/hr. In this simplified example,
assume a zero background concentration, which allows one to assume a
linear relationship between emissions and air quality. (A nonzero
[[Page 38646]]
background concentration would make the mathematics more difficult but
would give similar results.) Air quality will depend on what emissions
happen on what critical hours, but suppose that emissions at the
relevant times on these 5 days are 800 lbs/hr, 1,100 lbs/hr, 500 lbs/
hr, 900 lbs/hr, and 1,200 lbs/hr, respectively. (This is a conservative
example because the average of these emissions, 900 lbs/hr, is well
over the 30-day average emission limit.) These emissions would result
in daily maximum 1-hour concentrations of 80 ppb, 99 ppb, 40 ppb, 67.5
ppb, and 84 ppb. In this example, the fifth day would have an
exceedance that would not otherwise have occurred (84 ppb under the 30-
day average limit compared to 70 ppb under the 1-hour limit). However,
the third day would not have an exceedance that otherwise would have
occurred (40 ppb under the 30-day average limit compared to 80 ppb
under the 1-hour limit). The fourth day would have been below, rather
than at, 75 ppb (67.5 ppb under the 30-day average limit compared to 75
ppb under the 1-hour limit). In this example, the fourth highest
maximum daily concentration under the 30-day average would be 67.5 ppb.
This simplified example illustrates the findings of a more
complicated statistical analysis that EPA conducted using a range of
scenarios using actual plant data. As described in appendix B of EPA's
April 2014 SO2 nonattainment planning guidance, EPA found
that the requirement for lower average emissions is likely to yield as
good air quality as is required with a comparably stringent 1-hour
limit. Based on analyses described in appendix B of its 2014 guidance
and similar subsequent work, EPA expects that emission profiles with
maximum allowable emissions under an appropriately set comparably
stringent 30-day average limit are likely to have the net effect of no
more exceedances and as good air quality of an emission profile with
maximum allowable emissions under a 1-hour emission limit at the
critical emission value.\4\ This result provides a compelling policy
rationale for allowing the use of a longer averaging period, in
appropriate circumstances where the facts indicate this result can be
expected to occur.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\4\ See also further analyses described in rulemaking on the
SO2 nonattainment plan for Southwest Indiana. In response
to comments expressing concern that the emission profiles analyzed
for appendix B represented actual rather than allowable emissions,
EPA conducted additional work formulating sample allowable emission
profiles and analyzing the resulting air quality impact. This
analysis provided further support for the conclusion that an
appropriately set longer term average emission limit in appropriate
circumstances can suitably provide for attainment. The rulemaking
describing these further analyses was published on August 17, 2020,
at 85 FR 49967, available at https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-2020-08-17/pdf/2020-16044.pdf. A more detailed description of these
analyses is available in the docket for that action, specifically at
https://www.regulations.gov/document?D=EPA-R05-OAR-2015-0700-0023.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
The question then becomes whether this approach, which is likely to
produce a lower number of overall exceedances even though it may
produce some unexpected exceedances above the critical emission value,
meets the requirement in section 110(a)(1) and 172(c)(1) for state
implementation plans to ``provide for attainment'' of the NAAQS. For
SO2, as for other pollutants, it is generally impossible to
design a nonattainment plan in the present that will guarantee that
attainment will occur in the future. A variety of factors can cause a
well-designed attainment plan to fail and unexpectedly not result in
attainment, for example if meteorology occurs that is more conducive to
poor air quality than was anticipated in the plan. Therefore, in
determining whether a plan meets the requirement to provide for
attainment, EPA's task is commonly to judge not whether the plan
provides absolute certainty that attainment will in fact occur, but
rather whether the plan provides an adequate level of confidence of
prospective NAAQS attainment. From this perspective, in evaluating use
of a 30-day average limit, EPA must weigh the likely net effect on air
quality. Such an evaluation must consider the risk that occasions with
meteorology conducive to high concentrations will have elevated
emissions leading to exceedances that would not otherwise have
occurred, and must also weigh the likelihood that the requirement for
lower emissions on average will result in days not having exceedances
that would have been expected with emissions at the critical emissions
value. Additional policy considerations, such as accommodating real
world emissions variability without significant risk of violations, are
also appropriate factors for EPA to weigh in judging whether a plan
provides a reasonable degree of confidence that the plan will lead to
attainment. Based on these considerations, EPA believes that a
continuously enforceable limit averaged over as long as 30 days, if
determined in accordance with EPA's guidance, can reasonably be
considered to provide for attainment of the 2010 SO2 NAAQS.
The April 2014 guidance offers specific recommendations for
determining an appropriate longer term average limit. The recommended
method starts with determination of the 1-hour emission limit that
would provide for attainment (i.e., the critical emission value), then
applies an adjustment factor to determine the (lower) level of the
longer term average emission limit that would be estimated to have a
stringency comparable to the 1-hour emission limit. This method uses a
database of continuous emission data reflecting the type of control
that the source will be using to comply with the SIP emission limits,
which (if compliance requires new controls) may require use of an
emission database from another source. The recommended method involves
using these data to compute a complete set of emission averages,
computed according to the averaging time and averaging procedures of
the prospective emission limitation. In this recommended method, the
ratio of the 99th percentile among these long term averages to the 99th
percentile of the 1-hour values represents an adjustment factor that
may be multiplied by the candidate 1-hour emission limit to determine a
longer term average emission limit that may be considered comparably
stringent.\5\ The guidance also addresses a variety of related topics,
such as the potential utility of setting supplemental emission limits,
such as mass-based limits, to reduce the likelihood and/or magnitude of
elevated emission levels that might occur under the longer term
emission rate limit.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\5\ For example, if the critical emission value is 1,000 lbs/hr
of SO2, and a suitable adjustment factor is determined to
be 70 percent, the recommended longer term average limit would be
700 lbs/hr.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Preferred air quality models for use in regulatory applications are
described in appendix A of EPA's Guideline on Air Quality Models (40
CFR part 51, appendix W). In 2005, EPA promulgated AERMOD as the
Agency's preferred near-field dispersion modeling for a wide range of
regulatory applications addressing stationary sources (for example in
estimating SO2 concentrations) in all types of terrain based
on extensive developmental and performance evaluation. Supplemental
guidance on modeling for purposes of demonstrating attainment of the
SO2 standard is provided in appendix A to the April 23, 2014
SO2 nonattainment area SIP guidance document referenced
above. Appendix A provides extensive guidance on the modeling domain,
the source inputs, assorted types of meteorological data, and
background concentrations. Consistency with the recommendations in this
guidance is generally necessary for the attainment
[[Page 38647]]
demonstration to offer adequately reliable assurance that the plan
provides for attainment.
As stated previously, attainment demonstrations for the 2010 1-hour
primary SO2 NAAQS must demonstrate future attainment and
maintenance of the NAAQS in the entire area designated as nonattainment
(i.e., not just at the violating monitor). This is demonstrated by
using air quality dispersion modeling (see appendix W to 40 CFR part
51) that shows that the mix of sources, enforceable control measures,
and emission rates in an identified area will not lead to a violation
of the SO2 NAAQS. For a short-term (i.e., 1-hour) standard,
EPA believes that dispersion modeling, using allowable emissions and
addressing stationary sources in the affected area (and in some cases
those sources located outside the nonattainment area which may affect
attainment in the area) is technically appropriate, efficient and
effective in demonstrating attainment in nonattainment areas because it
takes into consideration combinations of meteorological and emission
source operating conditions that may contribute to peak ground-level
concentrations of SO2.
The meteorological data used in the analysis should generally be
processed with the most recent version of AERMET. Estimated
concentrations should include ambient background concentrations, should
follow the form of the standard, and should be calculated as described
in section 2.6.1.2 of the August 23, 2010 clarification memo on
``Applicability of appendix W Modeling Guidance for the 1-hr
SO2 National Ambient Air Quality Standard'' (U.S. EPA,
2010a).
IV. Review of Modeled Attainment Plan
The following discussion evaluates various features of the modeling
that Wisconsin used in its attainment demonstration.
A. Model Selection
Wisconsin's attainment demonstration used AERMOD, the preferred
model for this application. Wisconsin's January 2016 submittal used
version 15181 of this model, which was the most recent version at that
time. However, the supplemental modeling that Wisconsin submitted in
March 2021 used version 19191, which is the current regulatory version
of AERMOD. EPA finds this selection appropriate.
Wisconsin's receptor grid and modeling domain for the Rhinelander
area followed the recommended approaches from EPA's Guideline on Air
Quality Models (40 CFR part 51, appendix W). Receptor spacing for each
modeled facility was every 25 meters out to a distance of 500 meters
from each source, then every 50 meters to 1,000 meters, every 100
meters out to 3 kilometers, every 250 meters out to 6 kilometers, and
every 500 meters out to 10 kilometers.
Wisconsin determined that the Rhinelander area should be modeled
with rural dispersion coefficients, as Ahlstrom-Munksj[ouml] is
surrounded by less than 50% of land classified as industrial,
commercial, or dense residential within 3 kilometers, as recommended by
EPA's Guideline on Air Quality Models. Therefore, EPA concurs with
Wisconsin's determination that this area warrants being modeled with
rural dispersion coefficients.
B. Simulation of Downwash
Modeling of emissions from Ahlstrom-Munksj[ouml] has historically
underpredicted concentrations measured at a nearby monitor. When winds
blow from this facility toward the monitor, the emissions traverse a
corner of the building. Under these circumstances, the building appears
to cause enhanced eddies in the air flow, known as corner vortices,
which in certain circumstances appear to result in a substantial
enhancement of downwash of emissions to ground level and substantially
greater concentrations than are modeled using the standard downwash
algorithm in AERMOD.
Recognizing these issues, the company contracted for a wind tunnel
study, carried out by Cermak Peterka Petersen (CPP), to assess the
magnitude of this effect and to support a more accurate assessment of
downwash at this facility. This study supported the conclusion that the
discrepancy between modeled and monitored SO2 concentrations
were due to the corner vortex phenomenon, a phenomenon that is
described in EPA's ``Guideline for Determination of Good Engineering
Practice Stack Height (Technical Support Document for the Stack Height
Regulations).'' \6\ The wind tunnel study showed that as the wind
approaches the corner of the Ahlstrom-Munksj[ouml] building, vortices
are created that act to increase the SO2 concentrations
downwind of the building. Analysis of these results suggested that the
influence of these corner vortices vary by wind speed. Ahlstrom-
Munksj[ouml]'s consultants, AECOM and CPP, developed an equation
estimating a multiplier, varying by wind speed, by which to estimate
the impact of downwash in this case, i.e., a multiplier by which to
multiply concentrations estimated in absence of downwash to estimate
concentrations reflecting the downwash induced by this facility. The
wind tunnel study focused on concentrations in the direction with the
most enhanced downwash but applied the same adjustment in all
directions. Since there is less downwash in directions less influenced
by corner vortices, EPA considers this approach conservative in
maximizing estimated downwash effects on concentrations.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\6\ EPA-450/4-80-023R, June 1985.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Wisconsin's 2016 SIP submittal relied on modeling Ahlstrom-
Munksj[ouml] using a stack height of 90 meters. For this facility, the
``formula good engineering practice (GEP) stack height'' computed
according to the formula in EPA's stack height regulations (defined at
40 CFR 51.100(ii)(2)(ii)) is 75 meters. EPA disapproved the 2016
submittal because EPA's stack height regulations prohibit credit for a
stack above formula GEP stack height unless the state meets
requirements specified in those regulations for the level of control at
the facility. Wisconsin's 2021 submittal meets EPA's stack height
regulations by applying a limit demonstrated to provide attainment with
a stack at the creditable height of 75 meters.
The wind tunnel studies primarily simulated a stack with a height
of 85 meters, with another run simulating a stack with a height of 90
meters. These runs indicated the following equation to estimate the
ratio of concentrations expected with the building as compared
concentrations without the building:
[GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] TP22JY21.023
[[Page 38648]]
The variable R is the ratio multiplier that is applied to the
hourly emission rate file used in AERMOD. The Uairport and Umax values
represent the actual hourly wind speed measured at the Rhinelander
airport and the maximum wind speed, i.e., wind speed exceeded less than
1% of the time, of 10.8 meters per second. The A and B parameters are
best-fit coefficients. The A parameter, plus 1, represents the maximum
multiplier that can be applied to the hourly emissions.
While this equation was originally derived to assess the wind-
speed-dependent influence of downwash with a 90-meter stack, the
influence of downwash for a 75-meter stack may be derived based on
these same 85-meter and 90-meter results by using a best-fit
coefficient (A) that is specific to a 75-meter stack. The best-fit
coefficient was originally developed using wind tunnel data at an 85-
meter stack height. This coefficient was then adjusted using observed
and predicted concentration ratios, from the wind tunnel information,
to determine the appropriate coefficient for a 75-meter stack height.
For a 75-meter stack, Wisconsin applied the above equation with a value
of A of 0.826 and B of 0.174.
Wisconsin did not modify any algorithms or computer code in AERMOD
to reflect this enhancement of the influence of downwash. Instead,
Wisconsin implemented this enhancement by using modified model inputs.
Wisconsin first examined hourly wind speeds. Wisconsin computed hourly
downwash multipliers based on the above equation. Ordinarily, Wisconsin
would run AERMOD using a fixed emission rate reflecting the allowable
emission rate, but in this case Wisconsin input an hourly varying
emission rate in which each hour's input value equaled the fixed
emission rate (reflecting the allowable emission rate) times that
hour's downwash multiplier. For example, for an hour with a wind speed
of 5 meters per second, for which the above equation gives a downwash
multiplier of 1.564, the modeled emission rate for that hour reflected
multiplication times 1.564. This multiplier gives the expected ratio of
concentrations with the magnitude of downwash at this facility as
compared to the concentrations expected if no downwash were occurring.
Therefore, Wisconsin estimated hourly concentrations with Ahlstrom-
Munksj[ouml]-specific downwash by modeling the facility without
downwash but incorporating the expected impact of downwash at this
facility by increasing the emission rate modeled for each hour
accordingly.
EPA views Wisconsin's modeling as applying an alternate model under
the terms of 40 CFR 51 appendix W section 3.2.2.b.2. Under the
alternative model criteria discussed in section 3.2.2.b.2, it must be
shown that the alternative model performs better for a given
application than the recommended model, using a statistical analysis.
The State of Wisconsin evaluated the performance of the alternative
model from both a theoretical and a performance perspective. This
information was included in the public notice which preceded Wisconsin
finalizing its submittal. The Wisconsin analysis showed that the
alternative model predicted a design value slightly above the monitored
design value using the recent three years of monitoring data, 2017-
2019. The most recent three years reflect the impact of emissions
exiting the 90-meter stack. Recent meteorological data, processed for
modeling purposes, was not available. Consequently, the comparison was
conducted using the full five years of meteorology applied for the
attainment demonstration.
Additional comparisons were conducted that examined, on a year-to-
year basis, how well the alternative model was performing compared to
the regulatory version of the model and compared to monitoring data.
That analysis only used emissions from boiler B26, which vents through
Stack S09, when the boiler was actually operating, essentially non-
summer months for the years 2017-2019. This supplemental modeling was
conducted using a grid focused on a 400-meter by 400-meter area around
the monitor to the north of Ahlstrom-Munskj[ouml]. Again, 5 years of
meteorological data (2011-2015) was used in the modeling.
The model to monitor comparison used High 1st High concentrations,
the average of the top 26 values, fractional bias, and 99th percentile
values. The results of the comparison showed that the alternative model
performed consistently better than the regulatory version, that is it
predicted higher concentrations than the standard version of AERMOD.
Additionally, the year-by-year comparisons to the monitored data showed
that the alternative model produced underestimates for one year,
overestimates for one year, and very similar estimates for the third
year. There was considerable year-to-year variability, as one would
expect. Consequently, the alternative model was viewed to be acceptable
based on the theoretical aspects of its development, the superior
performance compared to the recommended model, and the overall unbiased
nature of the alternative model's predictions.
Wisconsin's alternate model characterization was reviewed and
concurred with on May 28, 2021 by EPA's Model Clearinghouse under EPA's
Guideline on Air Quality Models criteria for alternate models. EPA
Region 5's request for concurrence and EPA's Model Clearinghouse
concurrence letters are included in the docket for this action.
C. Meteorological Data
Wisconsin used Rhinelander-Oneida County Airport (KRHI) surface
data and Green Bay, Wisconsin upper air data, years 2011-1015, for
modeling the Rhinelander area. The surface station is located less than
5 kilometers from Ahlstrom-Munksj[ouml] and is located in similar
rolling terrain. Given the close proximity of the surface station and
the similarity in surrounding terrain, EPA finds the use of the KRHI
airport data, combined with the Green Bay upper air data to be
appropriate, representative meteorological data sets for assessing
dispersion at the facility.
D. Emissions Data
Wisconsin included all point sources within 50 kilometers of
Rhinelander in its modeling analysis. These sources included boilers
B26 (sometimes coal fired) and B28 (natural gas and oil fired) at
Ahlstrom-Munksj[ouml], the Kerry Inc. facility (formerly Red Arrow
Foods), and the PCA facility. Wisconsin found that no other sources
were close enough to cause significant concentration gradients. Boilers
B20, B21, B22, and B23 at Ahlstrom-Munksj[ouml] were shut down in 2014,
and their decommissioning is included in a federally enforceable
permit, so they were not included in the modeling analysis. Wisconsin
determined that boiler B26, which vents through stack S09, was
primarily responsible for the Rhinelander area nonattainment
designation, as the modeling results show that boiler B26 accounts for
94-95 percent of the total SO2 concentration in the area
depending on the boiler load. Therefore, boiler B26 was modeled at both
minimum and maximum loads. The Kerry Inc. and PCA sources, as well as
Ahlstrom-Munksj[ouml] boiler B28, were modeled at their current
permitted maximum allowable SO2 emissions, as contained in
federally enforceable permits.
E. Emission Limits
An important prerequisite for approval of an attainment plan is
that
[[Page 38649]]
the emission limits that provide for attainment be quantifiable, fully
enforceable, replicable, and accountable. See General Preamble at
13567-68. The limit for Ahlstrom-Munksj[ouml] is expressed as a 24-hour
average limit. Therefore, part of the review of Wisconsin's attainment
plan must address the use of this limit, both with respect to the
general suitability of using such limits for this purpose and with
respect to whether the particular limits included in the plan have been
suitably demonstrated to provide for attainment. The first subsection
that follows addresses the enforceability of the limits in the plan,
and the second subsection that follows addresses in particular the 24-
hour average limit.
1. Enforceability
In preparing its plan, Wisconsin adopted a revision to a previously
approved construction permit, Air Pollution Control Construction Permit
Revision 15-DMM-128-R1, governing the Ahlstrom-Munksj[ouml]
SO2 emissions. These permit revisions were adopted by
Wisconsin following established, appropriate public review procedures.
The revised permit limits boiler B26 emission rates to 2.38 pounds per
million British Thermal Unit (lbs/MMBTU) on a 24-hour average basis.
This limit is more stringent than the previously approved limit of 3.0
lbs/MMBTU on a 24-hour average basis. The 3.0 lbs/MMBTU limit was
included as part of Wisconsin's 2016 attainment demonstration that EPA
disapproved in its March 23, 2021 rulemaking. In accordance with EPA
policy, the 24-hour average limit is set at a lower level than the
emission rate used in the attainment demonstration; the relationship
between these two values is discussed in more detail in the following
section. Additionally, the revised permit limits the maximum heat input
to boiler B26 to 260 MMBTU/hour and requires that stack SO9 be a
minimum of 75 meters (246 feet) above ground, as opposed to the
previous boiler B26 limit of 300 MMBTU/hour and requirement that stack
S09 be a minimum of 90 meters (296 feet) off the ground.\7\ The permit
compliance date for Ahlstrom-Munksj[ouml] is December 31, 2021. EPA
finds that this construction permit revision provides for permanent
enforceability.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\7\ For more discussion on stack height, see EPA's November 25,
2020 proposed partial approval and partial disapproval (85 FR
75273).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
2. Longer Term Average Limits
Ahlstrom-Munksj[ouml] requested a limit expressed as a 24-hour
average limit in order to have a more robust limit, i.e., a limit based
on more values that would be less prone to indicate noncompliance based
on ordinary fluctuations in emissions. In accordance with EPA's April
2014 guidance for SO2 nonattainment plans, Wisconsin
therefore adjusted its limit, reducing the limit for purposes of
assuring comparable stringency to the 1-hour limit that it otherwise
would have adopted.
Although compliance with this limit will be determined on the basis
of continuous emissions monitoring system (CEMS) data, the facility
does not have a sufficient historical record of CEMS data to be able to
evaluate source-specific emissions variability for purposes of
determining a source-specific factor by which to adjust the 1-hour
limit for this source. Instead, Wisconsin determined its 24-hour
average limit by applying one of the national average adjustment
factors listed in appendix D of EPA's guidance. In particular,
Wisconsin set its 24-hour average limit at 93 percent of the modeled
emission rate, reflecting the national average adjustment factor that
EPA found among facilities without emission control equipment. While
the facility operates dry sorbent injection equipment to control
hydrogen chloride (HCl) emissions so as to meet the maximum available
control technology requirements for industrial boilers, HCl is
generally much easier to control than SO2, and the
information about the facility's sorbent usage provided in Wisconsin's
submittal supports a conclusion that sorbent injection likely reduces
SO2 emissions by less than one percent. Therefore, sorbent
usage may be presumed to have very little impact on the variability of
SO2 emissions at this facility, and the national average
adjustment factor for facilities without control equipment is likely to
provide the best estimate of the appropriate degree of adjustment to
determine a 24-hour limit that is comparably stringent to the 1-hour
limit that otherwise would have been established.
Wisconsin set its limit at 2.38 lbs/MMBTU, corresponding to 93
percent of the 2.56 lbs/MMBTU emission rate that Wisconsin modeled.\8\
Although appendix D of EPA's guidance reports average adjustment
factors based on 99th percentile values among lbs/hr data rather than
among lbs/MMBTU data, EPA generally finds that lbs/hr data show greater
variability than lbs/MMBTU data, and so use of an adjustment factor
determined from analysis of lbs/hr data is likely to yield a
conservative (more stringent) result.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\8\ To be precise, the emission rates that Wisconsin modeled
reflected 2.56 lbs/MMBTU times the allowable operating rate of 260
MMBTU/hour times the hour-specific downwash multiplier discussed
above.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
The Ahlstrom-Munksj[ouml] 24-hour average SO2 emissions
will be calculated by summing the emissions rates of each 1-hour
operating period and dividing by the number of operating hours for that
calendar day. Although EPA recommends that the average values be
calculated by summing the total emissions and dividing by the total
heat input for each day, this approach is infeasible for Ahlstrom-
Munksj[ouml]. Because Ahlstrom-Munksj[ouml] is using Method 19,
calculating lbs/MMBTU SO2 concentration without evaluating
either the mass or the heat input,\9\ the facility does not obtain the
hourly mass or heat input values to support a calculation of daily
total mass or daily total heat input. As the differences in results of
the two approaches are expected to be minimal, EPA concurs with
Wisconsin's approach.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\9\ ``Method 19--Determination of Sulfur Dioxide Removal
Efficiency and Particulate Matter, Sulfur Dioxide, and Nitrogen
Oxide Emission Rates'' (40 CFR part 60, appendix A).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ahlstrom-Munksj[ouml] requested that Wisconsin specify compliance
determination procedures for days with fewer hours of data (generally,
days with fewer hours of operation) in order to ensure robust
compliance determinations, specifically to ensure that compliance is
determined on the basis of a minimum of 18 hours of data. For days with
fewer than 24 but at least 18 hours of data, compliance will be
determined by averaging the emissions rates from the hours of
operation. For operating days with fewer than 18 hours of data,
compliance will be determined by averaging all the values from that day
along with all the values from the most recent day with at least 18
hours of valid data. EPA supports the principle of ensuring that
compliance with a long-term average limit should be based on a robust
data set. Wisconsin's approach also is consistent with the principle
that the facility shall be accountable for emissions at all times,
i.e., that days with fewer hours of data shall not be disregarded but
rather shall be included in a suitably constructed compliance
determination. Therefore, EPA concludes that Wisconsin is using an
appropriate approach for addressing days with fewer hours of data.
Based on a review of the State's submittal, EPA believes that the
24-hour-average limit for Boiler B26 at Ahlstrom-Munksj[ouml] provides
a suitable alternative to establishing a 1-hour average emission limit
for this source.
[[Page 38650]]
EPA finds that Wisconsin used an appropriate adjustment factor,
yielding an emission limit that has comparable stringency to the 1-hour
average limit that the State determined would otherwise have been
necessary to provide for attainment. While the 24-average limit allows
occasions in which emissions may be higher than the level that would be
allowed with the 1-hour limit, the State's limit compensates by
requiring average emissions to be lower than the level that would
otherwise have been required by a 1-hour average limit. For the reasons
described above and explained in more detail in EPA's April 2014
guidance for SO2 nonattainment plans, EPA finds that
appropriately set longer term average limits provide a reasonable basis
by which nonattainment plans may provide for attainment. Based on its
review of this general information as well as the particular
information in Wisconsin's plan, EPA finds that the 24-hour-average
limit for boiler B26 at Ahlstrom-Munksj[ouml] is a suitable alternative
to establishing a 1-hour limit on emissions from this boiler.
F. Background Concentrations
Wisconsin determined background concentrations for the Rhinelander
area using 2013-2015 data from the Horicon (Dodge County) monitor,
which is approximately 250 kilometers south of Rhinelander. The
background concentration values that Wisconsin used varied by month and
hour of the day and ranged from 1.40 micrograms per cubic meter ([mu]g/
m\3\) to 14.1 [mu]g/m\3\ with an average value of 4.87 [mu]g/m\3\. EPA
agrees that the values from the Horicon monitor are representative for
background concentration estimates.
G. Summary of Results
Modeling for the Rhinelander Area in Wisconsin's March 2021
submittal showed a design value of 74.8 ppb (195.8 [mu]g/m\3\). This
resulted from modeling the Ahlstrom-Munksj[ouml] boiler B26 at maximum
load, combined with all other area sources and including a background
concentration. The run was conducted with emissions at 2.56 lbs/MMBTU,
a level that corresponds in stringency to the 2.38 lbs/MMBTU 24-hour
average emission limit that Wisconsin adopted and submitted and is more
stringent than the previous 24-hour emission limit of 3.0 lbs/MMBTU.
Therefore, EPA concludes that Wisconsin's plan provides for attainment
in this area.
V. Review of Other Plan Requirements
A. RACM/RACT
CAA section 172(c)(1) states that nonattainment plans shall provide
for the implementation of all RACM as expeditiously as practicable
(including such reductions in emissions from existing sources in the
area as may be obtained through the adoption, at a minimum, of RACT)
and shall provide for attainment of the national primary ambient air
quality standards. CAA section 172(c)(6) requires plans to include
enforceable emissions limitations, and such other control measures as
may be necessary or appropriate to provide for attainment of the NAAQS.
In its March 23, 2021 rulemaking, EPA disapproved Wisconsin's 2016
attainment plan because the Ahlstrom-Munksj[ouml] emissions limits (3.0
lbs/MMBTU 24-hour average SO2 limit and 300 MMBTU/hr
operating limit) provided in the plan were not calculated in compliance
with the stack height regulations. Therefore, the plan could not be
considered to provide an appropriate attainment demonstration, and it
did not demonstrate RACM/RACT or meet the requirement for necessary
emissions limitations or control measures. Wisconsin's revised plan for
attaining the 1-hour SO2 NAAQS in the Rhinelander area is
based on a variety of measures, including more stringent SO2
emissions and operating limits (2.38 lbs/MMBTU 24-hour average
SO2 limit and 260 MMBTU/hr operating limit) for Ahlstrom-
Munksj[ouml], which were calculated in compliance with the stack height
regulations. Wisconsin's plan requires compliance with these measures
by December 31, 2021. Wisconsin has determined that these measures
suffice to provide for attainment. EPA concurs and proposes to conclude
that the State has satisfied the requirement in section 172(c)(1) and
(6) to adopt and submit all RACM/RACT and emissions limitations or
control measures as needed to attain the standards as expeditiously as
practicable.
B. Reasonable Further Progress (RFP)
In its March 23, 2021 rulemaking, EPA concluded that Wisconsin had
not satisfied the requirement in section 172(c)(2) to provide for RFP
toward attainment. Wisconsin's 2016 attainment plan did not demonstrate
that the implementation of the control measures required under the plan
were sufficient to provide for attainment of the NAAQS in the
Rhinelander SO2 nonattainment area consistent with EPA
requirements (in particular consistent with EPA stack height
regulations). Therefore, a compliance schedule to implement those
controls was not sufficient to provide for RFP. Wisconsin's revised
plan requires compliance by December 31, 2021. Wisconsin concludes that
this is an ambitious compliance schedule, as described in April 2014
guidance for SO2 nonattainment plans, and concludes that
this plan therefore provides for RFP in accordance with the approach to
RFP described in EPA's 2014 guidance. EPA concurs and proposes to
conclude that the plan provides for RFP.
C. Contingency Measures
As noted above, EPA guidance describes special features of
SO2 planning that influence the suitability of alternative
means of addressing the requirement in section 172(c)(9) for
contingency measures for SO2, such that in particular an
appropriate means of satisfying this requirement is for the State to
have a comprehensive enforcement program that identifies sources of
violations of the SO2 NAAQS and to undertake an aggressive
follow-up for compliance and enforcement. Wisconsin's plan provides for
satisfying the contingency measure requirement in this manner.\10\ EPA
concurs and proposes to approve Wisconsin's plan for meeting the
contingency measure requirement in this manner.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\10\ Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources (WDNR) maintains
an enforcement program to ensure compliance with SIP requirements.
The Bureau of Air Management houses an active statewide compliance
and enforcement team that works in all geographic regions of the
State. WDNR refers actions as necessary to the Wisconsin Department
of Justice with the involvement of WDNR. Wis. Stats. 285.83 and Wis.
Stats. 285.87 provide WDNR with the authority to enforce violations
and assess penalties, to ensure that required measures are
ultimately implemented.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
VI. What action is EPA taking?
EPA is proposing to approve Wisconsin's SIP submission, which the
State submitted to EPA on March 29, 2021 to supplement the prior SIP it
had submitted on January 22, 2016 and supplemented on July 18, 2016,
and November 29, 2016, for attaining the 2010 1-hour SO2
NAAQS for the Rhinelander area and for meeting other nonattainment area
planning requirements. This SO2 attainment plan includes
Wisconsin's attainment demonstration for the Rhinelander area. The plan
also addresses requirements for RFP, RACT/RACM, and contingency
measures. EPA has previously concluded that Wisconsin has addressed the
requirements for
[[Page 38651]]
emissions inventories for the Rhinelander area and nonattainment area
NSR. EPA has determined that Wisconsin's Rhinelander SO2
plan meets applicable requirements of section 172 of the CAA.
Wisconsin's Rhinelander SO2 plan is based on the
emissions limits specified in Air Pollution Control Construction Permit
Revision 15-DMM-128-R1. Wisconsin seeks EPA to approve several elements
of the permit, including the permit cover sheet, emissions limitations
for Ahlstrom-Munksj[ouml] (Conditions A.3.a.(1)-(3)), compliance
demonstration (Conditions A.3.b.(1)-(3)), reference test methods,
recordkeeping and monitoring requirements (Conditions A.3.c.(1)-(5) and
A.3.c.(7)-(9)), and the effective date (Condition YYY.1.a.(1)).
Wisconsin did not seek approval of limits and test methods associated
with oil sulfur content. Wisconsin stated that limits on the portion of
emissions from oil are unnecessary to comply with the 24-hour
SO2 emission limit and the boiler heat input limit, and
attainment is ensured by limits on total emissions from boiler B26. EPA
concurs with Wisconsin's rationale, and therefore EPA is proposing to
approve these elements of the permit.
Additionally, EPA is proposing to replace the previously approved
consent and administrative orders (AM-94-38 and AM-15-01) governing the
Ahlstrom-Munksj[ouml] emission limits \11\ with the elements of
Wisconsin's Air Pollution Control Construction Permit Revision 15-DMM-
128-R1 specified above. This replacement would not be effective until
December 31, 2021, which is the revised permit compliance date for
Ahlstrom-Munksj[ouml]. Section 110(l) of the CAA states that EPA
``shall not approve a revision of a plan if the revision would
interfere with any applicable requirement . . .'' Since Permit 15-DMM-
128-R1 contains a more stringent SO2 limit for Ahlstrom-
Munksj[ouml] (2.38 lbs/MMBTU on a 24-hour average basis) than the
previous orders (3.0 lbs/MMBTU on a 24-hour average basis), and since
Wisconsin has demonstrated that the limit in Permit 15-DMM-128-R1
provides for attainment without need for the limits in the prior
orders, EPA concludes that Section 110(l) does not prohibit EPA from
replacing the prior orders with the newer permit, and EPA is proposing
to act in accordance with this Wisconsin request.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\11\ Orders AM-94-38 and AM-15-01 were issued to the facility's
prior owner, Expera, but the orders continued to limit the
facility's emissions after it was acquired by Ahlstrom-Munksj[ouml].
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
EPA is taking public comments for thirty days following the
publication of this proposed action in the Federal Register. EPA will
take all comments into consideration in the final action. If this
approval is finalized, it would terminate the sanctions clock started
under CAA section 179 resulting from EPA's partial disapproval of the
prior SIP, as well as EPA's duty to promulgate a FIP for the area under
CAA section 110(c) that resulted from the previous partial disapproval.
VII. Incorporation by Reference
In this rule, EPA is proposing to include in a final EPA rule
regulatory text that includes incorporation by reference. In accordance
with requirements of 1 CFR 51.5, EPA is proposing to incorporate by
reference the specific portions of Wisconsin Air Pollution Control
Construction Permit Revision 15-DMM-128-R1, effective December 31,
2021, as described in section VI. above. EPA has made, and will
continue to make, these documents generally available through
www.regulations.gov and at the EPA Region 5 Office (please contact the
person identified in the FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT section of
this preamble for more information).
Also in this document, as described in section VI, EPA is proposing
to remove provisions of the EPA-Approved Wisconsin Source Specific
Requirements from the Wisconsin State Implementation Plan, which is
incorporated by reference in accordance with the requirements of 1 CFR
part 51.
VIII. Statutory and Executive Order Reviews
Under the CAA, the Administrator is required to approve a SIP
submission that complies with the provisions of the CAA and applicable
Federal regulations. 42 U.S.C. 7410(k); 40 CFR 52.02(a). Thus, in
reviewing SIP submissions, EPA's role is to approve state choices,
provided that they meet the criteria of the CAA. Accordingly, this
action merely approves state law as meeting Federal requirements and
does not impose additional requirements beyond those imposed by state
law. For that reason, this action:
Is not a significant regulatory action subject to review
by the Office of Management and Budget under Executive Orders 12866 (58
FR 51735, October 4, 1993) and 13563 (76 FR 3821, January 21, 2011);
Does not impose an information collection burden under the
provisions of the Paperwork Reduction Act (44 U.S.C. 3501 et seq.);
Is certified as not having a significant economic impact
on a substantial number of small entities under the Regulatory
Flexibility Act (5 U.S.C. 601 et seq.);
Does not contain any unfunded mandate or significantly or
uniquely affect small governments, as described in the Unfunded
Mandates Reform Act of 1995 (Pub. L. 104-4);
Does not have federalism implications as specified in
Executive Order 13132 (64 FR 43255, August 10, 1999);
Is not an economically significant regulatory action based
on health or safety risks subject to Executive Order 13045 (62 FR
19885, April 23, 1997);
Is not a significant regulatory action subject to
Executive Order 13211 (66 FR 28355, May 22, 2001);
Is not subject to requirements of Section 12(d) of the
National Technology Transfer and Advancement Act of 1995 (15 U.S.C. 272
note) because application of those requirements would be inconsistent
with the CAA; and
Does not provide EPA with the discretionary authority to
address, as appropriate, disproportionate human health or environmental
effects, using practicable and legally permissible methods, under
Executive Order 12898 (59 FR 7629, February 16, 1994).
In addition, the SIP is not approved to apply on any Indian
reservation land or in any other area where EPA or an Indian tribe has
demonstrated that a tribe has jurisdiction. In those areas of Indian
country, the rule does not have tribal implications and will not impose
substantial direct costs on tribal governments or preempt tribal law as
specified by Executive Order 13175 (65 FR 67249, November 9, 2000).
List of Subjects in 40 CFR Part 52
Environmental protection, Air pollution control, Incorporation by
reference, Intergovernmental relations, Reporting and recordkeeping
requirements, Sulfur oxides.
Dated: July 13, 2021.
Cheryl Newton,
Acting Regional Administrator, Region 5.
[FR Doc. 2021-15464 Filed 7-21-21; 8:45 am]
BILLING CODE 6560-50-P