Clean Air Plans; 2008 8-Hour Ozone Nonattainment Area Requirements; West Mojave Desert, California, 24809-24829 [2021-09842]
Download as PDF
<![CDATA[
Federal Register / Vol. 86, No. 88 / Monday, May 10, 2021 / Proposed Rules
preliminary Record of Environmental
Consideration supporting this
determination is available in the docket.
For instructions on locating the docket,
see the ADDRESSES section of this
preamble. We seek any comments or
information that may lead to the
discovery of a significant environmental
impact from this proposed rule.
List of Subjects in 33 CFR Part 165
G. Protest Activities
PART 165—REGULATED NAVIGATION
AREAS AND LIMITED ACCESS AREAS
The Coast Guard respects the First
Amendment rights of protesters.
Protesters are asked to call or email the
person listed in the FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION CONTACT section to
coordinate protest activities so that your
message can be received without
jeopardizing the safety or security of
people, places, or vessels.
khammond on DSKJM1Z7X2PROD with PROPOSALS
V. Public Participation and Request for
Comments
We view public participation as
essential to effective rulemaking, and
will consider all comments and material
received during the comment period.
Your comment can help shape the
outcome of this rulemaking. If you
submit a comment, please include the
docket number for this rulemaking,
indicate the specific section of this
document to which each comment
applies, and provide a reason for each
suggestion or recommendation.
We encourage you to submit
comments through the Federal
eRulemaking Portal at https://
www.regulations.gov. If your material
cannot be submitted using https://
www.regulations.gov, call or email the
person in the FOR FURTHER INFORMATION
CONTACT section of this document for
alternate instructions.
We accept anonymous comments.
Comments we post to https://
www.regulations.gov will include any
personal information you have
provided. For more about privacy and
submissions in response to this
document, see DHS’s eRulemaking
System of Records notice (85 FR 14226,
March 11, 2020).
Documents mentioned in this NPRM
as being available in the docket, and
public comments, will be in our online
docket at https://www.regulations.gov
and can be viewed by following that
website’s instructions. We review all
comments received, but we will only
post comments that address the topic of
the proposed rule. We may choose not
to post off-topic, inappropriate, or
duplicate comments that we receive. If
you go to the online docket and sign up
for email alerts, you will be notified
when comments are posted or a final
rule is published.
VerDate Sep<11>2014
16:59 May 07, 2021
Jkt 253001
Harbors, Marine safety, Navigation
(water), Reporting and recordkeeping
requirements, Security measures,
Waterways.
For the reasons discussed in the
preamble, the Coast Guard is proposing
to amend 33 CFR part 165 as follows:
1. The authority citation for part 165
continues to read as follows:
■
Authority: 46 U.S.C. 70034, 70051; 33 CFR
1.05–1, 6.04–1, 6.04–6, and 160.5;
Department of Homeland Security Delegation
No. 0170.1.
2. Add § 165.T05–0199 to read as
follows:
■
§ 165.T05–0199 Safety Zones; July 4th
Holiday Fireworks in the Coast Guard
Captain of the Port Maryland-National
Capital Region Zone.
(a) Locations. The following areas are
a safety zone: These coordinates are
based on datum NAD 83.
(1) Safety Zone 1. All waters of the
Severn River, within 150 yards of a
fireworks discharge site located at the
end of Sherwood Forest Club main pier
in approximate position latitude
39°01′54.0″ N, longitude 076°32′41.8″
W, Sherwood Forest, MD.
(2) Safety Zone 2. All navigable
waters of the Kent Island Narrows
(North Approach), within 800 feet of the
fireworks launch site at Kent Island in
approximate position latitude
38°58′44.8″ N, longitude 076°14′52.9″
W, in Queen Anne’s County, MD.
(3) Safety Zone 3. All navigable
waters of the Susquehanna River within
200 yards of a barge in approximate
position latitude 39°32′19″ N, longitude
076°04′58.3″ W, located at Havre de
Grace, MD.
(b) Definitions. As used in this
section—
Captain of the Port (COTP) means the
Commander, U.S. Coast Guard Sector
Maryland-National Capital Region.
Designated representative means a
Coast Guard Patrol Commander,
including a Coast Guard coxswain, petty
officer, or other officer operating a Coast
Guard vessel and a Federal, State, and
local officer designated by or assisting
the Captain of the Port MarylandNational Capital Region (COTP) in the
enforcement of the safety zone.
(c) Regulations. (1) Under the general
safety zone regulations in subpart C of
this part, you may not enter the safety
zone described in paragraph (a) of this
section unless authorized by the COTP
or the COTP’s designated representative.
PO 00000
Frm 00060
Fmt 4702
Sfmt 4702
24809
(2) To seek permission to enter,
contact the COTP or the COTP’s
representative by telephone at 410–576–
2693 or on Marine Band Radio VHF–FM
channel 16 (156.8 MHz). Those in the
safety zone must comply with all lawful
orders or directions given to them by the
COTP or the COTP’s designated
representative.
(d) Enforcement officials. The U.S.
Coast Guard may be assisted in the
patrol and enforcement of the safety
zone by Federal, State, and local
agencies.
(e) Enforcement periods. (1) Paragraph
(a)(1) of this section will be enforced
from 8:30 p.m. to 10:30 p.m. on July 3,
2021. If necessary due to inclement
weather on July 3, 2021, it will be
enforced from 8:30 p.m. to 10:30 p.m.
on July 5, 2021.
(2) Paragraph (a)(2) of this section will
be enforced from 9 p.m. to 11 p.m. on
July 4, 2021. If necessary due to
inclement weather on July 4, 2021, it
will be enforced from 9 p.m. to 11 p.m.
on July 5, 2021.
(3) Paragraph (a)(3) of this section will
be enforced from 8:30 p.m. to 10:30 p.m.
on July 4, 2021. If necessary due to
inclement weather on July 4, 2021, it
will be enforced from 8:30 p.m. to 10:30
p.m. on July 5, 2021.
Dated: May 5, 2021.
David E. O’Connell,
Captain, U.S. Coast Guard, Captain of the
Port Maryland-National Capital Region.
[FR Doc. 2021–09947 Filed 5–7–21; 8:45 am]
BILLING CODE 9110–04–P
ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION
AGENCY
40 CFR Part 52
[EPA–R09–OAR–2020–0254; FRL–10023–
52–Region 9]
Clean Air Plans; 2008 8-Hour Ozone
Nonattainment Area Requirements;
West Mojave Desert, California
Environmental Protection
Agency (EPA).
ACTION: Proposed rule.
AGENCY:
The Environmental Protection
Agency (EPA) is proposing to approve,
or conditionally approve, all or portions
of the state implementation plan (SIP)
revision submitted by the State of
California to meet Clean Air Act
requirements for the 2008 8-hour ozone
national ambient air quality standards
(NAAQS or ‘‘standards’’) in the West
Mojave Desert ozone nonattainment
area. The SIP revision addresses the
nonattainment area requirements for the
SUMMARY:
E:\FR\FM\10MYP1.SGM
10MYP1
khammond on DSKJM1Z7X2PROD with PROPOSALS
24810
Federal Register / Vol. 86, No. 88 / Monday, May 10, 2021 / Proposed Rules
2008 8-hour ozone NAAQS, including
the requirements for an emissions
inventory, emissions statements,
attainment demonstration, reasonable
further progress, reasonably available
control measures, contingency
measures, and motor vehicle emissions
budgets. The EPA is proposing to
approve the SIP revision as meeting all
the applicable ozone nonattainment area
requirements, except for contingency
measures, for which we are proposing
conditional approval.
DATES: Written comments must arrive
on or before June 9, 2021.
ADDRESSES: Submit your comments,
identified by Docket ID No. EPA–R09–
OAR–2020–0254 at https://
www.regulations.gov. For comments
submitted at Regulations.gov, follow the
online instructions for submitting
comments. Once submitted, comments
cannot be edited or removed from
Regulations.gov. The EPA may publish
any comment received to its public
docket. Do not submit electronically any
information you consider to be
Confidential Business Information (CBI)
or other information whose disclosure is
restricted by statute. Multimedia
submissions (audio, video, etc.) must be
accompanied by a written comment.
The written comment is considered the
official comment and should include
discussion of all points you wish to
make. The EPA will generally not
consider comments or comment
contents located outside of the primary
submission (i.e., on the web, cloud, or
other file sharing system). For
additional submission methods, please
contact the person identified in the FOR
FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT section.
For the full EPA public comment policy,
information about CBI or multimedia
submissions, and general guidance on
making effective comments, please visit
https://www.epa.gov/dockets/
commenting-epa-dockets. If you need
assistance in a language other than
English or if you are a person with
disabilities who needs a reasonable
accommodation at no cost to you, please
contact the person identified in the FOR
FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT section.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Tom
Kelly, EPA Region IX, (415) 972–3856,
kelly.thomasp@epa.gov.
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION:
Throughout this document, ‘‘we,’’ ‘‘us,’’
and ‘‘our’’ refer to the EPA.
Table of Contents
I. Regulatory Context
A. Ozone Standards, Area Designations,
and SIPs
B. The West Mojave Desert Ozone
Nonattainment Area
VerDate Sep<11>2014
16:59 May 07, 2021
Jkt 253001
C. CAA and Regulatory Requirements for
2008 Ozone Nonattainment Area SIPs
II. Submissions From the State of California
To Address 2008 Ozone Standards
Requirements in the West Mojave Desert
A. Summary of Submissions
B. Clean Air Act Procedural Requirements
for Adoption and Submission of SIP
Revisions
III. Evaluation of the 2016 WMD Attainment
Plan and the 2018 SIP Update
A. Emissions Inventories
B. Emissions Statements
C. Reasonably Available Control Measures
Demonstration
D. Attainment Demonstration
E. Rate of Progress Plan and Reasonable
Further Progress Demonstration
F. Transportation Control Strategies and
Measures To Offset Emissions Increases
From Vehicle Miles Traveled
G. Contingency Measures
H. Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets for
Transportation Conformity
I. Other Clean Air Act Requirements
Applicable to Severe Ozone
Nonattainment Areas
IV. Proposed Action
V. Statutory and Executive Order Reviews
I. Regulatory Context
A. Ozone Standards, Area Designations,
and SIPs
Ground-level ozone pollution is
formed from the reaction of volatile
organic compounds (VOC) and oxides of
nitrogen (NOX) in the presence of
sunlight.1 These two pollutants, referred
to as ozone precursors, are emitted by
many types of sources, including on-and
off-road motor vehicles and engines,
power plants and industrial facilities,
and smaller area sources such as lawn
and garden equipment and paints.
Scientific evidence indicates that
adverse public health effects occur
following exposure to ozone,
particularly in children and adults with
lung disease. Breathing air containing
ozone can reduce lung function and
inflame airways, which can increase
respiratory symptoms and aggravate
asthma or other lung diseases.2
Under section 109 of the Clean Air
Act (CAA or ‘‘Act’’), the EPA
promulgates NAAQS for pervasive air
pollutants, such as ozone. The EPA has
previously promulgated NAAQS for
ozone in 1979 and 1997.3 In 2008, the
1 The State of California typically refers to
reactive organic gases (ROG) in its ozone-related
submissions since VOC in general can include both
reactive and unreactive gases. However, since ROG
and VOC inventories pertain to common chemical
species (e.g., benzene, xylene, etc.), we refer to this
set of gases as VOC in this proposed rule.
2 See ‘‘Fact Sheet—2008 Final Revisions to the
National Ambient Air Quality Standards for Ozone’’
dated March 2008.
3 The ozone NAAQS promulgated in 1979 was
0.12 parts per million (ppm) averaged over a 1-hour
period. See 44 FR 8202 (February 8, 1979). The
PO 00000
Frm 00061
Fmt 4702
Sfmt 4702
EPA revised and further strengthened
the ozone NAAQS by setting the
acceptable level of ozone in the ambient
air at 0.075 parts per million (ppm)
averaged over an 8-hour period.4
Although the EPA further tightened the
8-hour ozone NAAQS to 0.070 ppm in
2015, this action relates to the
requirements for the 2008 ozone
NAAQS.5
Following promulgation of a new or
revised NAAQS, the EPA is required
under CAA section 107(d) to designate
areas throughout the country as
attaining or not attaining the NAAQS.
The ‘‘Los Angeles-San Bernardino
Counties (West Mojave Desert), CA’’
area (‘‘West Mojave Desert’’ or WMD)
was designated as nonattainment for the
2008 ozone standards on May 21, 2012
and classified as ‘‘Severe-15.’’ 6
Under the CAA, after the EPA
designates areas as nonattainment for a
NAAQS, states with nonattainment
areas are required to submit SIP
revisions that provide for, among other
things, attainment of the NAAQS within
certain prescribed periods that vary
depending on the severity of
nonattainment. Areas classified as
Severe-15 must attain the NAAQS
within 15 years of the effective date of
the nonattainment designation.7
In California, the California Air
Resources Board (CARB) is the agency
responsible for the adoption and
submission to the EPA of California SIPs
and SIP revisions, and it has broad
authority to establish emissions
standards and other requirements for
mobile sources. Local and regional air
pollution control districts in California
are responsible for the regulation of
stationary sources and are generally
responsible for the development of
regional air quality plans. In the West
Mojave Desert, two agencies develop
and adopt air quality management plans
to address CAA planning requirements
applicable to that region, the Antelope
Valley Air Quality Management District
(AVAQMD) and the Mojave Desert Air
Quality Management District
(MDAQMD) (collectively, ‘‘Districts’’).
Such plans are then submitted to CARB
for adoption and submittal to the EPA
as revisions to the California SIP.
ozone NAAQS promulgated in 1997 was 0.08 ppm
averaged over an 8-hour period. See 62 FR 38856
(July 18, 1997).
4 73 FR 16436 (March 27, 2008).
5 Information on the 2015 ozone NAAQS is
available at 80 FR 65292 (October 26, 2015).
6 77 FR 30088 (May 21, 2012).
7 CAA section 181(a)(1), 40 CFR 51.1102 and
51.1103(a).
E:\FR\FM\10MYP1.SGM
10MYP1
Federal Register / Vol. 86, No. 88 / Monday, May 10, 2021 / Proposed Rules
B. The West Mojave Desert Ozone
Nonattainment Area
The West Mojave Desert is located in
northeast Los Angeles County and
southwest San Bernardino County. For
a precise description of the geographic
boundaries of the area, see 40 CFR
81.305. The Los Angeles County portion
of the WMD area is under the
jurisdiction of the AVAQMD, and the
San Bernardino County portion of the
area is under the jurisdiction of the
MDAQMD.
The population of the West Mojave
Desert is approximately 868,380.8
Ambient 8-hour ozone concentrations in
the WMD are above the level of the 2008
8-hour ozone NAAQS. The area’s
maximum design value for the 2017–
2019 period, based on certified data at
the Phalen monitor (Air Quality System
ID: 06–071–0012), is 0.096 ppm.9
The West Mojave Desert receives
significant transport of ozone and ozone
precursors from the South Coast Air
Basin, and to a lesser extent, the San
Joaquin Valley. To attain the 2008 ozone
NAAQS, the WMD will depend on
continued emissions reductions in those
areas.10
C. CAA and Regulatory Requirements
for 2008 8-Hour Ozone Nonattainment
Area SIPs
khammond on DSKJM1Z7X2PROD with PROPOSALS
States must implement the 2008
ozone standards under title I, part D of
the CAA, which includes sections 171–
179B of subpart 1, ‘‘Nonattainment
Areas in General,’’ and sections 181–185
of subpart 2, ‘‘Additional Provisions for
Ozone Nonattainment Areas.’’ To assist
states in developing effective plans to
address ozone nonattainment problems,
in 2015 the EPA issued a SIP
Requirements Rule (SRR) for the 2008
ozone standards (‘‘2008 Ozone SRR’’)
that addresses requirements for
nonattainment areas, such as attainment
dates, emissions inventories, attainment
8 8-Hour Ozone (2008) Designated Area/State
Information, Green Book, EPA, accessed on
November 19, 2020, Population Data from 2010,
https://www3.epa.gov/airquality/greenbook/
hbtc.html.
9 Air Quality System (AQS) Design Value Report,
O3_designvalues_2017_2019_final_5_26_20.pdf, in
the docket for this proposed action. The AQS is a
database containing ambient air pollution data
collected by the EPA and state, local, and tribal air
pollution control agencies from over thousands of
monitors. Design values, defined to be consistent
with the individual NAAQS as described in 40 CFR
part 50, are typically used to designate and classify
nonattainment areas, as well as to assess progress
towards meeting the NAAQS.
10 See CARB, Staff Report, ‘‘CARB Review of the
Mojave Desert AQMD and Antelope Valley AQMD
Federal 75 ppb Ozone Attainment Plans for the
Western Mojave Desert Nonattainment Area,’’ April
21, 2017 (‘‘CARB Staff Report’’), Appendix B,
‘‘Weight of Evidence Analysis,’’ B–28.
VerDate Sep<11>2014
16:59 May 07, 2021
Jkt 253001
and reasonable further progress (RFP)
demonstrations, and the transition from
the 1997 8-hour ozone standards to the
2008 8-hour ozone standards and
associated anti-backsliding
requirements.11 The 2008 Ozone SRR is
codified at 40 CFR part 51, subpart AA.
We discuss each of the CAA statutory
and regulatory requirements for 2008 8hour ozone plans in more detail in
Section III of this document.
The EPA’s 2008 Ozone SRR was
challenged, and on February 16, 2018,
the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C.
Circuit (‘‘D.C. Circuit’’) published its
decision in South Coast Air Quality
Management District v. EPA (‘‘South
Coast II’’) 12 vacating portions of the
2008 Ozone SRR. The only aspect of the
South Coast II decision that affects this
proposed action is the vacatur of the
alternative baseline year for RFP plans.
More specifically, the 2008 Ozone SRR
required states to develop the baseline
emissions inventory for RFP plans using
the emissions inventory for the most
recent calendar year for which states
submit a triennial inventory to the EPA
under subpart A of 40 CFR part 51, ‘‘Air
Emissions Reporting Requirements,’’
which was 2011. The 2008 Ozone SRR,
however, allowed states to use an
alternative year, between 2008 and
2012, for the baseline emissions
inventory, provided the state
demonstrated why the alternative
baseline year was appropriate. In the
South Coast II decision, the D.C. Circuit
vacated the provisions of the 2008
Ozone SRR that allowed states to use an
alternative baseline year for
demonstrating RFP.
II. Submissions From the State of
California To Address 2008 Ozone
Standards Requirements in the West
Mojave Desert
24811
Plan’’) 14 and the MDAQMD
(‘‘MDAQMD Attainment Plan’’),15 an
accompanying staff report prepared by
CARB (‘‘CARB Staff Report’’),16 and
other supporting documents. We refer to
the AVAQMD Attainment Plan and the
MDAQMD Attainment Plan collectively
as the Districts’ ‘‘Attainment Plans,’’
and we refer to all the documents
submitted to the EPA on June 2, 2017
as the ‘‘2016 WMD Attainment Plan.’’
The 2016 WMD Attainment Plan
addresses the requirements for base year
and projected future year emissions
inventories, air quality modeling
demonstrating attainment of the 2008
ozone NAAQS by the applicable
attainment year, provisions
demonstrating implementation of
reasonably available control measures
(RACM), provisions for transportation
control strategies and measures, a
demonstration of RFP, and contingency
measures for failure to make RFP or to
attain, among other requirements.
2. CARB’s 2018 Updates to the
California State Implementation Plan
On December 11, 2018, CARB
submitted the ‘‘2018 Updates to the
California State Implementation Plan’’
(‘‘2018 SIP Update’’) to the EPA as a
revision to the California SIP.17 CARB
adopted the 2018 SIP Update on
October 25, 2018. CARB developed the
2018 SIP Update in response to the
court’s decision in South Coast II
vacating the 2008 Ozone SRR with
respect to the use of an alternate
baseline year for demonstrating RFP,
and to address contingency measure
requirements in the wake of the court
decision in Bahr v. EPA.18 The 2018 SIP
Update includes updates for 8 different
California ozone nonattainment areas.
We have previously approved portions
of the 2018 SIP Update related to other
A. Summary of Submissions
1. 2016 WMD Attainment Plan
On June 2, 2017, CARB submitted a
SIP revision to address the WMD’s
planning obligations as a Severe-15
nonattainment area for the 2008 ozone
NAAQS.13 The June 2, 2017 submittal
includes attainment plans prepared by
the AVAQMD (‘‘AVAQMD Attainment
11 80
FR 12264 (March 6, 2015).
Coast Air Quality Management District v.
EPA, 882 F.3d 1138 (D.C. Cir. 2018). The term
‘‘South Coast II’’ is used in reference to the 2018
court decision to distinguish it from a decision
published in 2006 also referred to as ‘‘South Coast.’’
The earlier decision involved a challenge to the
EPA’s Phase 1 implementation rule for the 1997
ozone NAAQS. South Coast Air Quality
Management Dist. v. EPA, 472 F.3d 882 (D.C. Cir.
2006).
13 Letter dated June 2, 2017, from Richard Corey,
CARB, to Alexis Strauss, EPA Region IX.
12 South
PO 00000
Frm 00062
Fmt 4702
Sfmt 4702
14 AVAQMD, ‘‘AVAQMD Federal 75 ppb Ozone
Attainment Plan (Western Mojave Desert
Nonattainment Area),’’ adopted on March 21, 2017.
15 MDAQMD, ‘‘MDAQMD Federal 75 ppb Ozone
Attainment Plan (Western Mojave Desert
Nonattainment Area),’’ adopted on February 27,
2017.
16 CARB, Staff Report, ‘‘CARB Review of the
Mojave Desert AQMD and Antelope Valley AQMD
Federal 75 ppb Ozone Attainment Plans for the
Western Mojave Desert Nonattainment Area,’’
released April 21, 2017.
17 Letter dated December 5, 2018, from Richard
Corey, CARB, to Mike Stoker, EPA Region IX.
18 Bahr v. EPA, 836 F.3d 1218 (9th Cir. 2016). In
this case, the court rejected the EPA’s longstanding
interpretation of CAA section 172(c)(9) as allowing
for early implementation of contingency measures.
The court concluded that a contingency measure
must take effect at the time the area fails to make
RFP or attain by the applicable attainment date, not
before. See also Sierra Club v. EPA, 985 F.3d 1055
(D.C. Cir. 2021), reaching a similar decision. These
cases are addressed below in Section III.G of this
document.
E:\FR\FM\10MYP1.SGM
10MYP1
24812
Federal Register / Vol. 86, No. 88 / Monday, May 10, 2021 / Proposed Rules
nonattainment areas.19 For the West
Mojave Desert, the 2018 SIP Update
includes an RFP demonstration using
the required 2011 baseline year and
revised motor vehicle emission budgets
for the 2008 ozone NAAQS.20
B. Clean Air Act Procedural
Requirements for Adoption and
Submission of SIP Revisions
1. Requirements
CAA sections 110(a)(1) and (2) and
110(l) require a state to provide
reasonable public notice and
opportunity for public hearing prior to
the adoption and submission of a SIP or
SIP revision. To meet this requirement,
every SIP submittal should include
evidence that adequate public notice
was given and an opportunity for a
public hearing was provided consistent
with the EPA’s implementing
regulations in 40 CFR 51.102.
2. Summary of the State’s
Documentation
khammond on DSKJM1Z7X2PROD with PROPOSALS
a. 2016 WMD Attainment Plan
On February 17, 2017, the AVAQMD
published notice in a local newspaper of
a public hearing to be held on March 21,
2017, for adoption of the AVAQMD
Attainment Plan.21 The District held the
public hearing on March 21, 2017,22 and
signed a Board resolution adopting the
plan that same day.23 The District sent
the plan to CARB on April 18, 2017.24
On January 27, 2017, the MDAQMD
published notice in a local newspaper of
a public hearing to be held on February
27, 2017, for adoption of the MDAQMD
Attainment Plan.25 The District held the
public hearing on February 27, 2017,26
and signed a Board resolution adopting
the plan the same day.27 The District
sent the plan to CARB on April 3,
2017.28
19 See, e.g., 84 FR 11198 (March 25, 2019) (final
approval of the San Joaquin Valley portion of the
2018 SIP Update) and 84 FR 52005 (October 1,
2019) (final approval of the South Coast portion of
the 2018 SIP Update).
20 CARB withdrew the 2016 WMD Attainment
Plan RFP demonstration in a letter dated December
18, 2019, from Richard Corey, CARB, to Michael
Stoker, EPA Region IX.
21 Appendix B of Final Staff Report, Adoption of
AVAQMD Attainment Plan.
22 Minutes of the Governing Board of the
Antelope Valley Air Quality Management District,
Lancaster, California, March 21, 2017.
23 Resolution 17–01, March 21, 2017.
24 Letter dated April 18, 2017, from Alan J. De
Salvio, AVAQMD, to Richard Corey, CARB.
25 Appendix B of Final Staff Report, MDAQMD
Attainment Plan.
26 Minutes of the Governing Board of the Mojave
Desert Air Quality Management District, Victorville,
California, February 27, 2017.
27 Resolution 17–05, dated February 27, 2017.
28 Letter dated April 3, 2017, from Alan J. De
Salvio, MDAQMD, to Richard Corey, CARB.
VerDate Sep<11>2014
16:59 May 07, 2021
Jkt 253001
On April 20, 2017, CARB provided
notice of a public comment period and
public hearing to be held on May 25,
2017, for the 2016 WMD Attainment
Plan.29 CARB adopted the 2016 WMD
Attainment Plan by resolution at the
May 25, 2017 hearing,30 and submitted
it to the EPA on June 2, 2017.31 The EPA
notified CARB the submittal was
complete on November 22, 2017.32
b. 2018 SIP Update
On September 21, 2018, CARB
provided notice of a public comment
period and public hearing to be held on
October 25, 2018, for the 2018 SIP
Update.33 CARB adopted the 2018 SIP
Update by resolution at the October 25,
2018 hearing,34 and submitted it the to
the EPA in a letter dated December 5,
2018, which was electronically
transmitted to the EPA’s State Planning
Electronic Collaboration System on
December 11, 2018.35
c. The EPA’s Conclusions on the
Submission Requirements for the WMD
2016 Attainment Plan
CARB has satisfied the applicable
statutory and regulatory requirements
for reasonable public notice and hearing
prior to the adoption and submittal of
the elements of the 2016 WMD
Attainment Plan. Based on information
provided in each SIP revision and
summarized above, the EPA has
determined that all hearings were
properly noticed. Therefore, we find
that the submittals of the 2016 WMD
Attainment Plan meet the procedural
requirements for public notice and
hearing in CAA sections 110(a) and
110(l) and 40 CFR 51.102.
III. Evaluation of the 2016 WMD
Attainment Plan and 2018 SIP Update
A. Emission Inventories
1. Statutory and Regulatory
Requirements
Sections 172(c)(3) and 182(a)(1) of the
CAA require states to submit for each
ozone nonattainment area a ‘‘base year
inventory’’ that is a comprehensive,
accurate, current inventory of actual
29 Notice of Public Meeting to Consider the 2016
Ozone State Implementation Plan for the Western
Mojave Desert Nonattainment Area, California Air
Resources Board, April 20, 2017.
30 Board Resolution 17–12, May 25, 2017.
31 Letter dated June 2, 2017, from Richard Corey,
CARB, to Alexis Strauss, EPA Region IX.
32 Letter dated November 22, 2017, from Matt
Lakin, EPA Region IX, to Richard Corey, CARB.
33 Notice of Public Meeting to Consider the 2018
Updates to the California State Implementation
Plan, September 21, 2018.
34 Board Resolution 18–50, October 25, 2018.
35 Letter dated December 5, 2018, from Richard
Corey, CARB, to Mike Stoker, EPA Region IX.
PO 00000
Frm 00063
Fmt 4702
Sfmt 4702
emissions from all sources of the
relevant pollutant or pollutants in the
area. In addition, the 2008 Ozone SRR
requires that the inventory year be
selected consistent with the baseline
year for the RFP demonstration, which
is usually the most recent calendar year
for which a complete triennial inventory
is required to be submitted to the EPA
under the Air Emissions Reporting
Requirements.36 The EPA has issued
guidance on the development of base
year and future year emissions
inventories for 8-hour ozone and other
pollutants.37 Emissions inventories for
ozone must include emissions of VOC
and NOX and represent emissions for a
typical ozone season weekday.38 States
should include documentation
explaining how the emissions data were
calculated. In estimating mobile source
emissions, states should use the latest
emissions models and planning
assumptions available at the time the
SIP is developed.39
Future year baseline emissions
inventories must reflect the most recent
population, employment, travel, and
congestion estimates for the area. In this
context, ‘‘baseline’’ emissions
inventories refer to emissions estimates
for a given year and area that reflect
rules and regulations and other
measures that are already adopted.
Future year baseline emissions
inventories are necessary to show the
projected effectiveness of SIP control
measures. Both the base year and future
year inventories are necessary for
photochemical modeling to demonstrate
attainment.
2. Summary of State’s Submission
The 2016 WMD Attainment Plan
includes base year (2012) and future
year baseline inventories for NOX and
VOC for the West Mojave Desert.40
36 2008 Ozone SRR at 40 CFR 51.1115(a) and the
Air Emissions Reporting Requirements at 40 CFR
part 51 subpart A.
37 ‘‘Emissions Inventory Guidance for
Implementation of Ozone and Particulate Matter
National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS)
and Regional Haze Regulations,’’ EPA–454/B–17–
002, May 2017. At the time the 2016 WMD
Attainment Plan was developed, the following EPA
emissions inventory guidance applied: ‘‘Emissions
Inventory Guidance for Implementation of Ozone
and Particulate Matter National Ambient Air
Quality Standards (NAAQS) and Regional Haze
Regulations,’’ EPA–454/R–05–001, August 2005.
38 40 CFR 51.1115(a) and (c), and 40 CFR
51.1100(bb) and (cc).
39 80 FR 12264, 12290 (March 6, 2015).
40 The 2012 base year and future year baseline
emissions inventories in the CARB Staff Report
exclude non-anthropogenic ‘‘natural sources’’
emissions such as biogenics and geogenics.
However, emissions from such natural sources are
included in the emissions inventories used for the
attainment demonstration because they affect ozone
formation.
E:\FR\FM\10MYP1.SGM
10MYP1
Federal Register / Vol. 86, No. 88 / Monday, May 10, 2021 / Proposed Rules
khammond on DSKJM1Z7X2PROD with PROPOSALS
Documentation for the inventories is
found in Appendix A–2 of the CARB
Staff Report.41 The emissions
inventories represent average summer
day emissions, consistent with the
observation that ozone levels in West
Mojave Desert are typically higher from
May through October.42 For stationary
and area sources, the 2012 base year and
future year inventories considered
several of the Districts’ rules,
specifically including MDAQMD Rule
1461, ‘‘Portland Cement Kilns’’
(covering mineral processing), and rules
from both Districts based on CARB’s
rules for consumer products, aerosol
coatings,43 and architectural coatings.44
The inventory also specifically notes the
incorporation of CARB’s performance
standards for gasoline dispensing hose
permeation,45 and revised vehicle
refueling emission factors.46 These
District and CARB rules are noted in
Table 5, ‘‘Stationary Source Control
41 The 2012 base year emissions inventory
included in the CARB Staff Report supersedes and
replaces a previous submittal of the 2012 base year
emissions inventory for the West Mojave Desert in
the ‘‘8-Hour Ozone State Implementation Plan
Emission Inventory Submittal’’ (the ‘‘Multi-Area
Emission Inventory’’). The Multi-Area Emission
Inventory was submitted by CARB on July 17, 2014
and later withdrawn on December 18, 2019. The
Multi-Area Inventory included 2012 base year
emissions inventories for 16 nonattainment areas,
including the West Mojave Desert. Relative to the
corresponding inventory for the West Mojave Desert
in the Multi-Area Emission Inventory, the 2012 base
year emissions inventory in the 2016 WMD
Attainment Plan reflects updated stationary, area,
and nonroad source calculations as well as an
updated version of the EMFAC model for on-road
motor vehicle estimates.
42 Appendix A–2 of the CARB Staff Report. In
contrast, the emissions inventory and projections in
Appendix A and B of the Districts’ Attainment
Plans contain average daily emissions, not average
summer day emissions.
43 See California Code of Regulations 94522,
‘‘Limits and Requirements for Aerosol Coating
Products,’’ incorporated into the SIP on November
4, 2009 (74 FR 57074).
44 As stated on the CARB website (https://
ww2.arb.ca.gov/our-work/programs/coatings/
architectural-coatings/scm-district-rulemakingschedule, accessed on August 25, 2020), AVAQMD
Rule 1113, adopted locally on June 18, 2013 and
MDAQMD Rule 1113, adopted locally on April 23,
2012, implement California’s 2007 suggested
control measures for architectural coatings. These
rules were incorporated into the SIP on December
8, 2015 (80 FR 76222) and December 8, 2015 (80
FR 76222), respectively.
45 See https://ww3.arb.ca.gov/vapor/gdfemisfactor/attachment5.pdf.
46 See https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/gasolinedispensing-facility-emission-factors.
VerDate Sep<11>2014
16:59 May 07, 2021
Jkt 253001
Rules and Regulations Included in the
Inventory,’’ of Appendix A–1 of the
CARB Staff Report. The mobile source
portions of both base year and projected
future year inventories were developed
using California’s EPA-approved mobile
source emissions model, EMFAC2014,
for estimating on-road motor vehicle
emissions.47
The 2016 WMD Attainment Plan
includes emissions inventories for
stationary sources, area sources, and onroad and off-road mobile sources.48
Stationary sources refer to larger
‘‘point’’ sources that have a fixed
geographic location. The 2018 SIP
Update explains that 2012 ‘‘stationary
source emissions reflect actual
emissions reported from industrial point
sources’’ and include stationary
aggregate sources, such as gasoline
dispensing facilities.49 AVAQMD Rule
107, ‘‘Certification of Submissions and
Emission Statements,’’ and MDAQMD
Rule 107, ‘‘Certification and Emission
Statements,’’ require all stationary
sources within the nonattainment area
that emit more than 25 tons per year
(tpy) or more of VOC or NOX to report
and certify annual emissions. For the
2012 base year, CARB developed a list
of stationary sources in Los Angeles and
San Bernardino counties and their
associated emissions. AVAQMD and
MDAQMD separated the stationary
sources within the WMD from those
within their respective counties but
outside the WMD.
Area sources include smaller
emissions sources distributed across the
nonattainment area, such as consumer
products, architectural coatings,
pesticides and herbicides, farming
operations, and cooking. CARB and the
District estimate emissions for area
sources using surveys and information
from other state and federal agencies.
These estimates are updated with
relevant factors such as population
changes, demographic factors, and
agency specific growth factors (e.g., for
farming operations and use of
herbicides and pesticides).50
On-road emissions inventories in the
CARB Staff Report are calculated using
47 EMFAC
is short for EMission FACtor.
Staff Report, Appendix A–2.
49 2018 SIP Update, Appendix A, A–1.
50 CARB Staff Report, see the discussion of
areawide sources beginning on page A1–8.
48 CARB
PO 00000
Frm 00064
Fmt 4702
Sfmt 4702
24813
CARB’s EMFAC2014 model 51 and the
travel activity data provided by the
area’s metropolitan planning
organization, the Southern California
Association of Governments (SCAG), in
the ‘‘2016–2040 Regional Transportation
Plan/Sustainable Communities
Strategy.’’ 52 CARB consulted with
MDAQMD staff to estimate emissions
from off-road equipment and area
sources occurring in the nonattainment
area, most often using human
population as default surrogate for the
quantity of emissions occurring in the
WMD.53 Future emissions forecasts are
primarily based on population and
economic growth projections provided
by SCAG; growth estimates from
government agencies such as the U.S.
Bureau of Labor Statistics, the U.S.
Department of Agriculture, and CARB;
forecasts from the Districts; and research
studies. The growth factors for each
emissions category are discussed in
Appendix A–1 of the CARB Staff
Report.
Table 1 below provides a summary of
the CARB Staff Report’s 2012 base year
and future attainment year VOC and
NOX emissions estimates within the
West Mojave Desert (average summer
day). These inventories provide the
basis for the control measure analysis
and the attainment demonstration in the
2016 WMD Attainment Plan. Based on
the inventory for 2012, stationary and
area sources of VOC emissions are
roughly equivalent to the combined onroad and off-road mobile source
emissions. For NOX emissions in 2012,
on-road mobile sources contribute the
highest fraction of emissions (37.11 tons
per day (tpd) or 37.5 percent) followed
by off-road (32.53 tpd or 32.9 percent),
stationary (28.27 tpd or 28.6 percent),
and area sources (1.05 tpd or 1.1
percent).
51 In December 2015, the EPA approved
EMFAC2014 for SIP development and
transportation conformity purposes in California. 80
FR 77337 (December 14, 2015). EMFAC2014 was
the most recently approved version of the EMFAC
model that was available at the time of preparation
of the 2016 Attainment Plan. The EPA approved an
updated version of the EMFAC model,
EMFAC2017, for future SIP development and
transportation purposes in California. 84 FR 41717
(August 15, 2019).
52 CARB Staff Report, Appendix A–1.
53 Id. at A1–3.
E:\FR\FM\10MYP1.SGM
10MYP1
24814
Federal Register / Vol. 86, No. 88 / Monday, May 10, 2021 / Proposed Rules
TABLE 1—WEST MOJAVE DESERT NONATTAINMENT AREA BASE YEAR AND ATTAINMENT YEAR EMISSIONS INVENTORY
SUMMARY
[Summer season average tpd]
NOX
(2012)
Category
VOC
(2012)
NOX
(2026)
VOC
(2026)
Stationary Sources ..........................................................................................
Area Sources ...................................................................................................
On-road Mobile ................................................................................................
Off-road Mobile ................................................................................................
28.27
1.05
37.11
32.53
42.08
0.92
9.84
25.53
13.16
11.32
15.21
7.09
17.35
12.15
5.98
4.99
Total ..........................................................................................................
98.95
68.56
46.78
40.47
khammond on DSKJM1Z7X2PROD with PROPOSALS
Source: Appendix A–2, CARB Staff Report. Due to rounding, the totals may not agree to the hundredth of a tpd.
3. The EPA’s Review of the State’s
Submission
We have reviewed the 2012 base year
emissions inventory in the 2016 WMD
Attainment Plan and the inventory
methodologies used by CARB and the
District for consistency with CAA
requirements and EPA guidance. First,
as required by EPA regulations, we find
that the 2012 inventory includes
estimates for VOC and NOX for a typical
ozone season weekday, and that CARB
has provided adequate documentation
explaining how the emissions are
calculated. Second, we find that the
2012 base year emissions inventory in
the 2016 WMD Attainment Plan reflects
appropriate emissions models and
methodologies, and, therefore,
represents a comprehensive, accurate,
and current inventory of actual
emissions during that year in the WMD.
Third, we find that selection of year
2012 for the base year emissions
inventory is appropriate because it is
consistent with the 2011 RFP baseline
year (from the 2018 SIP Update) because
both inventories are derived from a
common set of models and methods.
Therefore, the EPA is proposing to
approve the 2012 emissions inventory
in the 2016 WMD Attainment Plan as
meeting the requirements for a base year
inventory set forth in CAA section
182(a)(1) and 40 CFR 51.1115.
With respect to future year baseline
projections, we have reviewed the
growth and control factors and find
them acceptable, and conclude that the
future baseline emissions projections in
the 2016 WMD Attainment Plan reflect
appropriate calculation methods and the
latest planning assumptions.
Furthermore, we note that the future
year baseline projections account for
emissions reductions from control
measures in adopted state and local
rules and regulations. As a general
matter, the EPA will approve a SIP
revision that takes emissions reduction
credit for such control measures only
where the EPA has approved the control
measures as part of the SIP. Tables 1
VerDate Sep<11>2014
16:59 May 07, 2021
Jkt 253001
and 2 in the technical support
document (TSD) supporting this action
document the approval of all rules
within the West Mojave Desert. Table 5
of the CARB Staff Report documents the
specific rules considered in the
development of the emissions
inventory.
With respect to mobile sources, the
EPA has taken action in recent years to
approve CARB mobile source
regulations into the California SIP.54 We
therefore find that the future year
baseline projections in the 2016 WMD
Attainment Plan are properly supported
by SIP-approved stationary and mobile
source control measures.
B. Emissions Statements
1. Statutory and Regulatory
Requirements
Section 182(a)(3)(B)(i) of the Act
requires each state to submit a SIP
revision requiring owners or operators
of stationary sources of VOC or NOX to
provide the state with statements of
actual emissions from such sources.
Statements must be submitted at least
every year and must contain a
certification that the information
contained in the statement is accurate to
the best knowledge of the individual
certifying the statement. Section
182(a)(3)(B)(ii) of the Act allows states
to waive the emission statement
requirement for any class or category of
stationary sources that emit less than 25
tpy of VOC or NOX, if the state provides
an inventory of emissions from such
class or category of sources as part of the
base year or periodic inventories
required under CAA sections 182(a)(1)
and 182(a)(3)(A), based on the use of
emission factors established by the EPA
or other methods acceptable to the EPA.
The preamble of the 2008 Ozone SRR
states that if an area has a previously
approved emissions statement rule for
the 1997 ozone NAAQS or the 1-hour
ozone NAAQS that covers all portions
of the nonattainment area for the 2008
ozone NAAQS, such rule should be
sufficient for purposes of the emissions
statement requirement for the 2008
ozone NAAQS.55 The state should
review the existing rule to ensure it is
adequate and, if so, may rely on it to
meet the emissions statement
requirement for the 2008 ozone NAAQS.
Where an existing emissions statement
requirement is still adequate to meet the
requirements of this rule, states can
provide the rationale for that
determination to the EPA in a written
statement in the SIP to meet this
requirement. States should identify the
various requirements and how each is
met by the existing emissions statement
program. Where an emissions statement
requirement is modified for any reason,
the state must provide the revisions to
the emissions statement as part of its
SIP.
2. Summary of the State’s Submission
The 2016 WMD Attainment Plan
addresses compliance with the
emissions statement requirement in
CAA section 182(a)(3)(B) for the 2008
ozone NAAQS by reference to
AVAQMD Rule 107 and MDAQMD Rule
107.56 These rules require, among other
things, emissions reporting within the
West Mojave Desert from all stationary
sources of NOX and VOC with emissions
over 25 tpy.57 The EPA approved
AVAQMD Rule 107 on April 11, 2013
(78 FR 21545) and MDAQMD Rule 107
on May 26, 2004 (69 FR 29880) as
revisions to each District’s portion of the
California SIP. AVAQMD and
MDAQMD letters to CARB state that
these rules continue to meet the
emission statement requirements of
CAA section 182(a)(3)(B) and that the
Districts rely on these rules to meet the
55 80
FR 12264, at 12291 (March 6, 2015).
A to Appendix D and Addendum
A to Appendix E of the CARB Staff Report.
57 Id.
56 Addendum
54 See 81 FR 39424 (June 16, 2016), 82 FR 14446
(March 21, 2017), and 83 FR 23232 (May 18, 2018).
PO 00000
Frm 00065
Fmt 4702
Sfmt 4702
E:\FR\FM\10MYP1.SGM
10MYP1
Federal Register / Vol. 86, No. 88 / Monday, May 10, 2021 / Proposed Rules
emissions statement requirements for
the 2008 ozone standards.58
3. The EPA’s Review of the State’s
Submission
For this action, we have reviewed
AVAQMD Rule 107 and MDAQMD Rule
107 for compliance with the specific
requirements for emissions statement
rules under CAA section 182(a)(3)(B).
We agree with the Districts’ findings:
That these rules apply within the entire
ozone nonattainment area and that the
nonattainment area is the same for both
the 1997 Ozone NAAQS and the 2008
ozone NAAQS; that the rules apply to
all stationary sources of VOC and NOX,
except those emitting less than 25 tpy
for which the Districts have waived the
requirement (consistent with CAA
section 182(a)(3)(B)(ii)); and that the
rules require reporting, on an annual
basis, of total emissions of VOC and
NOX. We also find that AVAQMD Rule
107 and MDAQMD Rule 107 require
certification that the information
provided to the Districts is accurate to
the best knowledge of the individual
certifying the emissions data, as
required under CAA section
182(a)(3)(B).
Therefore, we propose to approve the
emissions statement element of the 2016
WMD Attainment Plan as meeting the
requirements of CAA section
182(a)(3)(B) and the 40 CFR 51.1102.
khammond on DSKJM1Z7X2PROD with PROPOSALS
C. Reasonably Available Control
Measures Demonstration
1. Statutory and Regulatory
Requirements
CAA section 172(c)(1) requires that
each attainment plan provide for the
implementation of all RACM as
expeditiously as practicable (including
such reductions in emissions from
existing sources in the area as may be
obtained through implementation of
reasonably available control technology
(RACT)), and also provide for
attainment of the NAAQS. The 2008
Ozone SRR requires that, for each
nonattainment area required to submit
an attainment demonstration, the state
concurrently submit a SIP revision
demonstrating that it has adopted all
RACM necessary to demonstrate
attainment as expeditiously as
practicable and to meet any RFP
requirements.59
The EPA has previously provided
guidance interpreting the RACM
requirement in the General Preamble for
the Implementation of the Clean Air Act
Amendments of 1990 (‘‘General
58 Appendix D1 and D2 and Appendix E1 and E1
of the CARB Staff Report.
59 40 CFR 51.1112(c).
VerDate Sep<11>2014
16:59 May 07, 2021
Jkt 253001
Preamble’’) and in a memorandum
entitled ‘‘Guidance on the Reasonably
Available Control Measures (RACM)
Requirement and Attainment
Demonstration Submissions for Ozone
Nonattainment Areas.’’ 60 In summary,
to address the requirement to adopt all
RACM, states should consider all
potentially reasonable control measures
for source categories in the
nonattainment area to determine
whether they are reasonably available
for implementation in that area and
whether they would, if implemented
individually or collectively, advance the
area’s attainment date by one year or
more.61 Any measures that are
necessary to meet these requirements
that are not already either federally
promulgated, or part of the state’s SIP,
or otherwise creditable in the SIP, must
be submitted in enforceable form as part
of the state’s attainment plan for the
area.62
CAA section 172(c)(6) requires that
nonattainment area plans include
enforceable emission limitations, and
such other control measures, means or
techniques (including economic
incentives such as fees, marketable
permits, and auctions of emission
rights), as well as schedules and
timetables for compliance, as may be
necessary or appropriate to provide for
timely attainment of the NAAQS.63
Under the 2008 Ozone SRR, all control
60 General Preamble, 57 FR 13498 at 13560 (April
16, 1992); memorandum dated November 30, 1999,
from John Seitz, Director, OAQPS, to EPA Regional
Air Directors, Regions I–X, Subject: ‘‘Guidance on
the Reasonably Available Control Measures (RACM)
Requirement and Attainment Demonstration
Submissions for Ozone Nonattainment Areas.’’
61 Id. See also 44 FR 20372 (April 4, 1979), and
memorandum dated December 14, 2000, from John
S. Seitz, Director, OAQPS, to Regional Air
Directors, titled ‘‘Additional Submission on RACM
From States with Severe One-Hour Ozone
Nonattainment Area SIPs.’’
62 For ozone nonattainment areas classified as
Moderate or above, CAA section 182(b)(2) also
requires implementation of RACT for all major
sources of VOC and for each VOC source category
for which the EPA has issued a Control Techniques
Guideline (CTG). CAA section 182(f) requires that
RACT under section 182(b)(2) also apply to major
stationary sources of NOX. In Extreme areas, a major
source is a stationary source that emits or has the
potential to emit at least 10 tpy of VOC or NOX (see
CAA section 182(e) and (f)). Under the 2008 Ozone
SRR, states were required to submit SIP revisions
meeting the RACT requirements of CAA sections
182(b)(2) and 182(f) no later than 24 months after
the effective date of designation for the 2008 Ozone
NAAQS and to implement the required RACT
measures as expeditiously as practicable but no
later than January 1 of the 5th year after the
effective date of designation (see 40 CFR
51.1112(a)). California submitted the CAA section
182 RACT SIP for AVAQMD and MDAQMD on
October 23, 2015 and September 9, 2015,
respectively. The EPA conditionally approved these
submissions at 82 FR 46923 (October 10, 2017) and
83 FR 5921 (February 12, 2018).
63 See also CAA section 110(a)(2)(A).
PO 00000
Frm 00066
Fmt 4702
Sfmt 4702
24815
measures needed for attainment must be
implemented no later than the
beginning of the attainment year ozone
season.64 The attainment year ozone
season is defined as the ozone season
immediately preceding a nonattainment
area’s outermost attainment date.65
2. Summary of the State’s Submission
a. The Districts’ RACM Analysis
The AVAQMD and MDAQMD
Attainment Plans explain that they
incorporate all RACM, and that the
Districts have adopted or committed in
the Attainment Plans to adopt all such
measures.66 The Plans note the Districts’
reviews of stationary source rules
conducted during the development of
the RACT SIPs submitted to the EPA in
2015,67 and set out the Districts’
schedules for adoption of rules
identified in those reviews.68 The CARB
Staff Report includes a further RACM
assessment from each District
confirming that the Districts have
examined existing control measures and
determined that no additional RACT or
mobile source controls will advance the
attainment date for the West Mojave
Desert for the 2008 ozone standard.69
These assessments also note that
photochemical modeling shows the
WMD would attain the ozone NAAQS if
not for upwind emissions from the
South Coast Air Basin and San Joaquin
Valley.70
b. CARB’S RACM Analysis
Source categories for which CARB has
primary jurisdiction for reducing
emissions in California include most
new and existing on- and off-road
engines and vehicles, motor vehicle
fuels, and consumer products. CARB’s
RACM assessment is contained in the
Appendix E, ‘‘Ozone RACM
Assessment,’’ of both the AVAQMD and
MDAQMD Attainment Plans. Appendix
64 40
CFR 51.1108(d).
CFR 51.1100(h).
66 AVAQMD Attainment Plan, 6–7, and
MDAQMD Attainment Plan, 7.
67 ‘‘2015 8-Hour Ozone Reasonably Available
Control Technology (RACT) SIP Analysis: Antelope
Valley Air Quality Management District’’ and ‘‘2015
8-Hour Ozone Reasonably Available Control
Technology (RACT) SIP Analysis: Mojave Desert
Air Quality Management District.’’ The EPA
conditionally approved these submissions at 82 FR
46923 (October 10, 2017) and 83 FR 5921 (February
12, 2018), respectively.
68 AVAQMD Attainment Plan, 17, and MDAQMD
Attainment Plan, 19.
69 CARB Staff Report, Appendix D–3 and E–3. See
also CARB Staff Report, 10.
70 CARB Staff Report, Appendix D–3 and E–3.
This finding is supported by Appendix B of the
CARB Staff Report, which contains a conceptual
model explaining the formation of ozone in the
WMD, and the heavy influence of transport from
the South Coast Air Basin.
65 40
E:\FR\FM\10MYP1.SGM
10MYP1
24816
Federal Register / Vol. 86, No. 88 / Monday, May 10, 2021 / Proposed Rules
F, ‘‘CARB Adopted Mobile Source
Programs,’’ of these attainment plans
also includes a general description of
CARB’s key mobile source regulations
and programs and a comprehensive
table listing on- and off-road mobile
source regulatory actions taken by
CARB from 1985 through 2016. The
RACM assessment contains CARB’s
evaluation of mobile source and other
statewide control measures that reduce
emissions of NOX and VOC in the
WMD.
Given the need for substantial
emissions reductions from mobile and
area sources to meet the NAAQS in
California nonattainment areas, CARB
has established stringent control
measures for on-road and off-road
mobile sources and the fuels that power
them. California has unique authority
under CAA section 209 (subject to a
waiver by the EPA) to adopt and
implement new emission standards for
many categories of on-road vehicles and
engines, and new and in-use off-road
vehicles and engines.
CARB’s mobile source program
extends beyond regulations that are
subject to the waiver or authorization
process set forth in CAA section 209, to
include standards and other
requirements to control emissions from
in-use heavy-duty trucks and buses,
gasoline and diesel fuel specifications,
and many other types of mobile sources.
Generally, these regulations have been
submitted and approved as revisions to
the California SIP.71
The Districts’ Attainment Plans
include CARB’s RACM analysis for
mobile source measures in the West
Mojave Desert. In this analysis, CARB
concludes:
There are no reasonable regulatory control
measures excluded from use in this plan;
therefore, there are no emissions reductions
associated with unused regulatory control
measures. As a result, California’s mobile
source control programs fully meet the
requirements for RACM.72
khammond on DSKJM1Z7X2PROD with PROPOSALS
c. Local Jurisdictions’ RACM Analysis
and Transportation Control Measures
The supplemental RACM assessments
included as addendums to appendices D
and E of the CARB Staff Report address
the Districts’ RACM findings, including
for transportation control measures
(TCMs). These addendums state that the
71 See, e.g., the EPA’s approval of standards and
other requirements to control emissions from in-use
heavy-duty diesel-powered trucks, at 77 FR 20308
(April 4, 2012), revisions to the California on-road
reformulated gasoline and diesel fuel regulations at
75 FR 26653 (May 12, 2010), and revisions to the
California motor vehicle inspection and
maintenance program at 75 FR 38023 (July 1, 2010).
72 AVAQMD Attainment Plan, Appendix E–7;
MDAQMD Attainment Plan, Appendix E–7.
VerDate Sep<11>2014
16:59 May 07, 2021
Jkt 253001
Districts examined existing control
measures and determined that controls
from RACT and mobile source emission
control programs will not advance the
West Mojave Desert’s attainment year
for the 2008 ozone standards.73
3. The EPA’s Review of the State’s
Submission
The TSD for this action includes
additional analysis to evaluate the
Districts’ and CARB’s RACM
assessments.74 In that analysis, we
estimate that a 1.2 tpd reduction of NOX
emissions would be necessary to
advance attainment by one year from
2026 to 2025, and conservatively
identify no more than 1.04 tpd of
additional reductions that could be
achieved through implementation of
potential RACM for stationary sources.
Based on this analysis, we agree with
the Districts’ and CARB’s conclusion
that there are no additional RACM that
would advance attainment of the 2008
ozone standards in the WMD by at least
one year.
We also find that CARB’s consumer
products program comprehensively
addresses emissions from consumer
products in the WMD. CARB measures
are more stringent than the EPA’s
consumer products regulation
promulgated in 1998,75 and generally
exceed the controls in place throughout
other areas of the country. We agree
with CARB’s conclusion that its mobile
source regulations include all
reasonably available controls.
For the WMD, given the significant
influence of pollutant transport from the
South Coast Air Basin and the minimal
and diminishing emissions benefits
generally associated with TCMs, no new
TCMs implemented in the WMD, alone
or in combination with potential
additional rules, would contribute to
advancing the attainment date in the
WMD by one year. Therefore, no new
TCMs are required to satisfy the RACM
requirement in the WMD.
For the foregoing reasons, and as
addressed more fully in the TSD for this
action, we propose to find that the 2016
Attainment Plan provides for the
implementation of all RACM as required
by CAA section 172(c)(1) and 40 CFR
51.1112(c).
73 CARB
Staff Report, Appendix D–3 and E–3.
Support Document, Clean Air Plans;
2008 8-Hour Ozone Nonattainment Area
Requirements; West Mojave Desert, California, U.S.
EPA Region IX, September 2020.
75 63 FR 48819 (September 11, 1998).
74 Technical
PO 00000
Frm 00067
Fmt 4702
Sfmt 4702
D. Attainment Demonstration
1. Statutory and Regulatory
Requirements
An attainment demonstration consists
of the following: (1) Technical analyses,
such as base year and future year
modeling, to locate and identify sources
of emissions that are contributing to
violations of the ozone NAAQS within
the nonattainment area (i.e., analyses
related to the emissions inventory for
the nonattainment area and the
emissions reductions necessary to attain
the standard); (2) a list of adopted
measures (including RACT controls)
with schedules for implementation and
other means and techniques necessary
and appropriate for demonstrating RFP
and attainment as expeditiously as
practicable but no later than the outside
attainment date for the area’s
classification; (3) a RACM analysis; and
(4) contingency measures required
under sections 172(c)(9) and 182(c)(9) of
the CAA that can be implemented
without further action by the state or the
EPA to cover emissions shortfalls in
RFP plans and failures to attain.76 This
subsection of this proposed rule
addresses the first two components of
the attainment demonstration—the
technical analyses and a review of
adopted measures. Section III.C of this
document, ‘‘Reasonably Available
Control Measures Demonstration,’’
addresses the RACM component, and
section III.G, ‘‘Contingency Measures,’’
addresses the contingency measures
component of the attainment
demonstration in the Attainment Plans.
With respect to the technical analyses,
section 182(c)(2)(A) of the CAA requires
that a plan for an ozone nonattainment
area classified ‘‘Serious’’ or above
include a ‘‘demonstration that the plan
. . . will provide for attainment of the
ozone [NAAQS] by the applicable
attainment date. This attainment
demonstration must be based on
photochemical grid modeling or any
other analytical method determined
. . . to be at least as effective.’’ The
attainment demonstration predicts
future ambient concentrations for
comparison to the NAAQS, making use
of available information on measured
concentrations, meteorology, and
current and projected emissions
inventories of ozone precursors,
including the effect of control measures
in the plan. Areas classified Severe-15
for the 2008 ozone NAAQS must
demonstrate attainment as expeditiously
as practicable, but no later than 15 years
76 78 FR 34178, 34184 (June 6, 2013), the EPA’s
proposed rule for implementing the 2008 ozone
NAAQS.
E:\FR\FM\10MYP1.SGM
10MYP1
Federal Register / Vol. 86, No. 88 / Monday, May 10, 2021 / Proposed Rules
after the effective date of designation as
nonattainment. The WMD was
designated nonattainment for the 2008
ozone NAAQS effective July 20, 2012,77
and accordingly must demonstrate
attainment of the standards by no later
than July 20, 2027.78 An attainment
demonstration must show attainment of
the standards for a full calendar year
before the attainment date, so in
practice, Severe-15 nonattainment areas
must demonstrate attainment no later
than 2026.
The EPA’s recommended procedures
for modeling ozone as part of an
attainment demonstration are contained
in ‘‘Modeling Guidance for
Demonstrating Attainment of Air
Quality Goals for Ozone, PM2.5, and
Regional Haze’’ (‘‘Modeling
Guidance’’).79 The Modeling Guidance
includes recommendations for a
modeling protocol, model input
preparation, model performance
evaluation, use of model output for the
numerical NAAQS attainment test, and
modeling documentation. Air quality
modeling is performed using
meteorology and emissions from a base
year, and the predicted concentrations
from this base case modeling are
compared to air quality monitoring data
from that year to evaluate model
performance. Once the model
performance is determined to be
acceptable, future year emissions are
simulated with the model. The relative
(or percent) change in modeled
concentration due to future emissions
reductions provides a relative response
factor (RRF). Each monitoring site’s RRF
is applied to its monitored base year
design value to provide the future
design value for comparison to the
NAAQS. The Modeling Guidance also
recommends supplemental air quality
analyses, which may be used as part of
a weight of evidence (WOE) analysis. A
WOE analysis corroborates the
attainment demonstration by
considering evidence other than the
main air quality modeling attainment
77 77
FR 30088 (May 21, 2012).
FR 12264 (March 6, 2015).
79 ‘‘Modeling Guidance for Demonstrating
Attainment of Air Quality Goals for Ozone, PM2.5,
and Regional Haze,’’ EPA 454/R–18–009 (November
2018); available at https://www.epa.gov/scram/
state-implementation-plan-sip-attainmentdemonstration-guidance. See also December 2014
draft of this guidance, available at the same website.
The December 2014 draft guidance was available
during development of the Plan; the final version
differs mainly in organization, and in updates to the
regional haze portion and to other document
references. Additional EPA modeling guidance can
be found in 40 CFR 51 Appendix W, Guideline on
Air Quality Models, 82 FR 5182 (January 17, 2017);
available at https://www.epa.gov/scram/clean-airact-permit-modeling-guidance.
khammond on DSKJM1Z7X2PROD with PROPOSALS
78 80
VerDate Sep<11>2014
16:59 May 07, 2021
Jkt 253001
test, such as trends and additional
monitoring and modeling analyses.
The Modeling Guidance also does not
require a particular year to be used as
the base year for 8-hour ozone plans.80
The Modeling Guidance states that the
most recent year of the National
Emissions Inventory may be appropriate
for use as the base year for modeling,
but that other years may be more
appropriate when considering
meteorology, transport patterns,
exceptional events, or other factors that
may vary from year to year.81 Therefore,
the base year used for the attainment
demonstration need not be the same
year used to meet the requirements for
emissions inventories and RFP.
With respect to the list of adopted
measures, CAA section 172(c)(6)
requires that nonattainment area plans
include enforceable emissions
limitations, and such other control
measures, means or techniques
(including economic incentives such as
fees, marketable permits, and auctions
of emission rights), as well as schedules
and timetables for compliance, as may
be necessary or appropriate to provide
for timely attainment of the NAAQS.82
Under the 2008 Ozone SRR, all control
measures needed for attainment must be
implemented no later than the
beginning of the attainment year ozone
season.83 The attainment year ozone
season is defined as the ozone season
immediately preceding a nonattainment
area’s outermost attainment date.84 For
the West Mojave Desert, the outermost
attainment year is 2026.
2. Summary of the State’s Submission
a. Photochemical Modeling
The 2016 WMD Attainment Plan
includes photochemical modeling for
the 2008 ozone NAAQS. The South
Coast Air Quality Management District
(SCAQMD) performed the air quality
modeling for the 2016 WMD Attainment
Plan, as part of the Final 2016 Air
Quality Management Plan for the South
Coast Air Quality Management District
(‘‘SCAQMD 2016 AQMP’’).85 The
modeling relies on a 2012 base year and
demonstrates attainment of the 2008
ozone NAAQS by the applicable Severe15 area attainment year (i.e., 2026).
The modeling and modeled
attainment demonstration are described
in Chapter 4, ‘‘Attainment
80 Modeling
Guidance at section 2.7.1, 35.
81 Id.
82 See
also CAA section 110(a)(2)(A).
CFR 51.1108(d).
84 40 CFR 51.1100(h).
85 Appendix V, Final 2016 Air Quality
Management Plan, March 2017, SCAQMD. See
AVAQMD Attainment Plan, 31, and MDAQMD
Attainment Plan, 33.
24817
Demonstration,’’ of the 2016 WMD
Attainment Plan and in Appendix D,
‘‘Western Mojave Desert Modeling
Analysis.’’ The AVAQMD Attainment
Plan and the MDAQMD Attainment
Plan also reference Appendix V of the
SCAQMD 2016 AQMP for additional
information on the modeled attainment
demonstration.
The modeling protocol is in Chapter
2, ‘‘Modeling Protocol,’’ of Appendix V
of the SCAQMD 2016 AQMP and
contains all the elements recommended
in the Modeling Guidance. Those
include the following: Selection of
model, time period to model, modeling
domain, and model boundary
conditions and initialization
procedures; a discussion of emissions
inventory development and other model
input preparation procedures; model
performance evaluation procedures;
selection of days; and other details for
calculating RRFs. Appendix V of the
SCAQMD 2016 AQMP also provides the
coordinates of the modeling domain and
thoroughly describes the development
of the modeling emissions inventory, its
spatial and temporal allocation, its
temperature dependence, and quality
assurance procedures.
The modeling analysis uses version
5.0.2 of the Community Multiscale Air
Quality (CMAQ) photochemical model,
developed by the EPA. To prepare
meteorological input for CMAQ, the
modeling analysis uses the Weather and
Research Forecasting model version 3.6
(WRF) from the National Center for
Atmospheric Research. CMAQ and WRF
are both recognized in the Modeling
Guidance as technically sound, state-ofthe-art models. The areal extent and the
horizontal and vertical resolution used
in these models are adequate for
modeling West Mojave Desert ozone.
The SCAQMD assessed the
performance of the WRF meteorological
model through a series of simulations,
and the SCAQMD concluded that the
daily WRF simulation for 2012 provided
representative meteorological fields that
characterized the observed conditions
well. The SCAQMD’s conclusions are
supported by hourly time series graphs
of wind speed, direction, and
temperature.86
Ozone model performance statistics
are described in Appendix D, ‘‘West
Mojave Desert Community Multiscale
Air Quality Model Performance
Analysis,’’ of both the AVAQMD and
MDAQMD Attainment Plans, which
include tables of statistics
83 40
PO 00000
Frm 00068
Fmt 4702
Sfmt 4702
86 Attachment 1 (‘‘WRF Model Performance Time
Series’’), Chapter 3 (‘‘Meteorological Modeling and
Sensitivity Analyses’’), Appendix V (‘‘Modeling and
Attainment Demonstration’’) of the 2016 SCAQMD
AQMP.
E:\FR\FM\10MYP1.SGM
10MYP1
24818
Federal Register / Vol. 86, No. 88 / Monday, May 10, 2021 / Proposed Rules
khammond on DSKJM1Z7X2PROD with PROPOSALS
recommended in the Modeling
Guidance for 8-hour daily maximum
ozone for the WMD. This section
presents hourly time series, as well as
density scatter plots and plots of bias
against concentration. Note that because
only relative changes are used from the
modeling, the overprediction or
underprediction of absolute ozone
concentrations does not mean that
future concentrations will be
overestimated or underestimated.
After model performance for the 2012
base case was accepted, the model was
applied to develop RRFs for the
attainment demonstration. This entailed
running the model with the same
meteorological inputs as before, but
with adjusted emissions inventories to
reflect the expected changes between
2012 and the 2026 attainment year. The
base year or ‘‘reference year’’ modeling
inventory was the same as the inventory
for the modeling base case. The 2026
inventory projects the base year into the
future by including the effect of
economic growth and emissions control
measures. The set of 153 days from May
1 through September 30, 2012, was
simulated and analyzed to determine
daily 8-hour average maximum ozone
concentrations for the 2020 emissions
inventory. To develop the RRFs for the
2008 ozone NAAQS, only the top 10
days were used.
The Modeling Guidance addresses
attainment demonstrations with ozone
NAAQS based on 8-hour averages. For
the 2008 ozone NAAQS, Appendix D of
the 2016 WMD Attainment Plan
includes the attainment test procedure
consistent with the Modeling Guidance.
The RRFs were calculated as the ratio of
future to base year concentrations. The
resulting RRFs were then applied to
2012 weighted base year design
values 87 for each monitor to arrive at a
2026 future year design value.88 The
2016 WMD Attainment Plan narrowly
projects that the West Mojave Desert
will reach modeled attainment in 2023,
with the highest ozone design value of
0.0759 ppm at the Phelan monitor site
(station number: 06–071–0012); this
value demonstrates attainment of the
corresponding 2008 ozone NAAQS of
0.075 ppm.89
87 The Modeling Guidance recommends that
RRFs be applied to the average of three three-year
design values centered on the base year, in this case
the design values for 2010–2012, 2011–2013, and
2012–2014. This amounts to a 5-year weighted
average of individual year 4th-high concentrations,
centered on the base year of 2012, and so is referred
to as a weighted design value.
88 Table 5 of Appendix A–1 of the CARB Staff
Report.
89 Appendix P of 40 CFR part 50 for a discussion
of reporting and handling procedures for the
primary and secondary ozone standards that
VerDate Sep<11>2014
16:59 May 07, 2021
Jkt 253001
Appendix B of the CARB Staff Report
presents a WOE analysis with further
discussion of the modeling for the area.
The WOE analysis includes the
following: An evaluation of ambient
ozone trends; precursor emissions
trends for the region (i.e., the South
Coast Air Basin, San Joaquin Valley, and
the WMD); an evaluation of diurnal
ozone monitoring trends; and a
conceptual model that describes the
conditions that create the exceedances
of the 2008 ozone NAAQS. These
evaluations complement the
photochemical modeling analysis for
the area and show that the area’s timely
attainment is dependent on continuing
future reductions from implementation
of control measures in neighboring
upwind nonattainment areas. The WOE
analysis concludes that, based on these
upwind reductions from neighboring
nonattainment areas, the WMD will
attain the 2008 ozone standard by
2026.90
Finally, Appendix D of each of the
Districts’ Attainment Plans includes an
unmonitored area analysis for the 2008
ozone NAAQS to assess the attainment
status of locations other than monitoring
sites. The unmonitored area analysis in
the 2016 WMD Attainment Plan shows
concentrations below the 2008 ozone
NAAQS for all locations.91
and 34.4 tpd reduction of VOC in 2023,
from 2012 base year emissions (339.6
tpd for NOX and 337.3 tpd for VOC in
2011).94 Both upwind areas continue to
show emission reductions through 2026
and beyond.
Within the WMD, the control strategy
for attainment of the 2008 ozone
NAAQS in the 2016 WMD Attainment
Plan relies primarily on emissions
reductions from baseline (i.e., alreadyadopted) measures. These baseline
control measures include the Districts’
stationary source rules,95 and CARB’s
mobile source and consumer product
rules adopted through 2016, as listed in
Appendix F of the 2016 WMD
Attainment Plan, ‘‘CARB Adopted
Mobile Source Programs.’’ The
attainment demonstration and base year
emissions inventory use a 2012 base
year (101.09 tpd of NOX and 43.69 tpd
of VOC), and consistent with South
Coast II, the RFP demonstration relies
on a 2011 baseline year.96 The
attainment year emissions estimate for
the attainment demonstration is the
same throughout the 2016 WMD
Attainment Plan and 2018 SIP Update
(68.5 tpd of NOX and 40.5 tpd of VOC)
and represents a 30.3 percent NOX
reduction and a 13.4 percent VOC
reduction from the 2012 emissions
inventory base year emissions.
b. Control Strategy
The control strategy for attainment of
the 2008 ozone NAAQS in the WMD
relies on timely attainment in 2023 of
the 1997 ozone NAAQS in the upwind
Los Angeles-South Coast Air Basin,92
which is the same year the WMD model
shows attainment. The attainment plan
for the 2008 ozone NAAQS for the
South Coast Air Basin, which has been
previously approved by the EPA,
projects a 277 tpd reduction in NOX and
a 121 tpd reduction in VOC from 2012
base year emissions (522 tpd for NOX
and 500 tpd for VOC).93 In addition, the
2008 ozone attainment plan for the San
Joaquin Valley, which has also been
previously approved by the EPA,
projects a 214.6 tpd reduction of NOX
c. Attainment Demonstration
Chapter 4 of the Districts’ Attainment
Plans describes the attainment
demonstration in general terms,
including photochemical modeling
results. Chapter 4 references Appendix
V of the SCAQMD 2016 AQMP, which
provides information on the modeling
protocol. Appendix D of the District’s
Attainment Plans contains model results
and performance for the WMD. The
WOE analysis in Appendix B to the
CARB Staff Report includes additional
supporting information to complement
the photochemical modeling and to
provide context for this attainment
discusses truncating the third digit to the right of
the decimal place.
90 Appendix B, CARB Staff Report, B–30. The
TSD for this action includes additional discussion
of the modeled attainment demonstration and WOE
analysis that support this conclusion.
91 Figure 3: 2023 Predicted 8-hr Ozone Design
Values, Appendix D, of both districts Attainment
Plans.
92 Appendix B, CARB Staff Report, B–2.
93 Approval of Air Quality Implementation Plans;
California; South Coast Air Basin; 1-Hour and 8Hour Ozone Nonattainment Area Requirements,
Proposed Rule, 84 FR 28132 (June 17, 2019). EPA
finalized approval of the South Coast plan for the
2008 ozone NAAQS at 84 FR 52005 (October 1,
2019).
PO 00000
Frm 00069
Fmt 4702
Sfmt 4702
94 Air Quality State Implementation Plans;
Approvals and Promulgations: Clean Air Plans;
2008 8-Hour Ozone Nonattainment Area
Requirements; San Joaquin Valley, California,
Proposed Rule 83 FR 61346 (November 28, 2018).
EPA finalized approval of the San Joaquin Valley
plan for the 2008 ozone NAAQS at 84 FR 3302
(February 12, 2018).
95 Technical Support Document: Clean Air Plans;
2008 8-Hour Ozone Nonattainment Area
Requirements; West Mojave Desert, California,
EPA–R09–OAR–2020–0254, Tables 1 and 2.
96 The modeling base year emissions were taken
from Table 1 and Appendix A of the AVAQMD and
MDAQMD Attainment Plans. The CARB Staff
Report notes 2012 base year emissions from the
Districts’ plans were average day emissions, i.e.,
averaged over the entire year, rather than average
summer day emissions, which are included in
Appendix A of the CARB Staff Report and were
submitted as the 2012 base year emissions.
E:\FR\FM\10MYP1.SGM
10MYP1
Federal Register / Vol. 86, No. 88 / Monday, May 10, 2021 / Proposed Rules
demonstration, such as ambient ozone
data, a conceptual model of ozone
formation, anthropogenic emission
trends, ozone trends, and a discussion
of the attainment projections. Baseline
measures are expected to reduce 2012
base year emissions of NOX by 30.7
percent and VOC emissions by 13
percent by 2026, and to attain the 2008
ozone NAAQS in the WMD by 2023,
three years ahead of the outermost
attainment year, 2026.
3. The EPA’s Review of the State’s
Submission
khammond on DSKJM1Z7X2PROD with PROPOSALS
a. Photochemical Modeling
The EPA has reviewed the modeling
platform and agrees that the CMAQ
(version 5.0.2) modeling platform, and
the WRF (version 3.6.1) meteorological
fields are appropriate for the ozone
attainment demonstration. After review,
the EPA is satisfied that the
meteorological model, WRF, performed
adequately. The diurnal variation of
temperature, humidity and surface wind
are well represented by WRF. The EPA
has also reviewed the time series, scatter
plots, and ozone performance, and
determined that overall, the CMAQ
photochemical modeling performance
for ozone is acceptable.
We are proposing to find the air
quality modeling adequate to support
the attainment demonstrations for the
2008 ozone NAAQS, based on
reasonable meteorological and ozone
modeling performance, supported by
the weight of evidence analyses.
b. Control Strategy
Based on our review of the emissions
inventory documentation in the CARB
Staff Report, we find that CARB and the
Districts have used the most recent
planning and activity assumptions,
emissions models, and methodologies to
estimate the effect of the control strategy
on the baseline and milestone year
emissions inventories. The 2016 WMD
Attainment Plan relies on state and
locally adopted baseline control
measures, i.e., already-adopted control
measures, to achieve the emissions
reductions needed to attain the 2008
ozone NAAQS. The baseline measures
are approved into the SIP and, as such,
are fully creditable within the
attainment demonstration analysis.
Accordingly, we propose to find that the
emissions reductions that are relied on
for attainment are creditable and
sufficient to provide for attainment.
c. Attainment Demonstration
Based on our review of the 2016
WMD Attainment Plan and our
proposed findings that the
photochemical modeling and control
VerDate Sep<11>2014
16:59 May 07, 2021
Jkt 253001
strategy are acceptable and demonstrate
attainment by July 20, 2027, we propose
to approve the attainment
demonstration for the 2008 ozone
NAAQS in the 2016 WMD Attainment
Plan as meeting the requirements of
CAA section 182(c)(2)(A) and 40 CFR
51.1108. The Districts’ Attainment Plans
and the WOE in the CARB Staff Report
demonstrate that the ozone design value
in the WMD will meet the 0.075 ppm
standard by 2026, and therefore will
meet the attainment date of July 20,
2027, for the 2008 ozone standard.
While the submitted modeling projects
that attainment is possible in advance of
the 2026 deadline, the EPA is relying on
the modeling, additional information
provided in the WOE, and current ozone
trends, to conclude that the WMD will
attain the 2008 ozone NAAQS by 2026,
consistent with the outermost
attainment date of July 20, 2027. See the
TSD for additional information.
E. Rate of Progress Plan and Reasonable
Further Progress Demonstration
1. Statutory and Regulatory
Requirements
Requirements for RFP are specified in
CAA sections 172(c)(2), 182(b)(1), and
182(c)(2)(B). CAA section 172(c)(2)
requires that plans for nonattainment
areas provide for RFP, which is defined
at CAA section 171(1) as such annual
incremental reductions in emissions of
the relevant air pollutant as are required
under part D, ‘‘Plan Requirements for
Nonattainment Areas,’’ or may
reasonably be required by the EPA for
the purpose of ensuring attainment of
the applicable NAAQS by the applicable
date. CAA section 182(b)(1) specifically
requires that ozone nonattainment areas
that are classified as ‘‘Moderate’’ or
above demonstrate a 15 percent
reduction in VOC between the years of
1990 and 1996. The EPA has typically
referred to section 182(b)(1) as the rate
of progress (ROP) requirement. For
ozone nonattainment areas classified as
Serious or higher, section 182(c)(2)(B)
requires reductions averaged over each
consecutive 3-year period beginning 6
years after the baseline year until the
attainment date of at least 3 percent of
baseline emissions per year. CAA
section 182(c)(2)(B)(ii) allows an
amount less than 3 percent of such
baseline emissions each year if the state
demonstrates to the EPA that the plan
includes all measures that can feasibly
be implemented in the area in light of
technological achievability.
The 2008 Ozone SRR considers areas
classified Moderate or higher to have
met the ROP requirements of CAA
section 182(b)(1) if the area has a fully
PO 00000
Frm 00070
Fmt 4702
Sfmt 4702
24819
approved 15 percent ROP plan for the
1-hour or 1997 8-hour ozone standards,
provided the boundaries of the ozone
nonattainment areas are the same.97 For
such areas, the RFP requirements of
CAA section 172(c)(2) require areas
classified as Moderate to provide a 15
percent emission reduction of ozone
precursors within 6 years of the baseline
year. Areas classified as Serious or
higher must meet the RFP requirements
of CAA section 182(c)(2)(B) by
providing an 18 percent reduction of
ozone precursors in the first 6-year
period, and an average ozone precursor
emission reduction of 3 percent per year
for all remaining 3-year periods
thereafter.98 Under CAA 182(c)(2)(C), a
state may substitute NOX emissions
reductions for VOC emissions
reductions.
Except as specifically provided in
CAA section 182(b)(1)(C), emission
reductions from all SIP-approved,
federally promulgated, or otherwise SIPcreditable measures that occur after the
baseline are creditable for purposes of
demonstrating that the RFP targets are
met. Because the EPA has determined
that the passage of time has caused the
effect of certain exclusions to be de
minimis, the RFP demonstration is no
longer required to calculate and
specifically exclude reductions from
measures related to motor vehicle
exhaust or evaporative emissions
promulgated by January 1, 1990;
regulations concerning Reid vapor
pressure promulgated by November 15,
1990; measures to correct previous
RACT requirements; and measures
required to correct previous vehicle
inspection and maintenance (I/M)
programs.99
The 2008 Ozone SRR requires the RFP
baseline year to be the most recent
calendar year for which a complete
triennial inventory is required to be
submitted to the EPA (i.e., 2011). As
discussed above, the 2008 Ozone SRR
provided states with the opportunity to
use an alternative baseline year for
RFP,100 but this provision was vacated
by the D.C. Circuit in the South Coast
II decision.
2. Summary of the State’s Submission
The 2016 WMD Attainment Plan
addresses the 15 percent ROP
requirement by noting that the EPA had
proposed approval of the 15 percent
ROP plan for the 1997 ozone NAAQS
for the WMD, and that the 1997 ozone
nonattainment area covers the entire
97 80
FR 12264, 12271 (March 6, 2015).
98 Id.
99 40
CFR 51.1110(a)(7).
CFR 51.1110(b).
100 40
E:\FR\FM\10MYP1.SGM
10MYP1
24820
Federal Register / Vol. 86, No. 88 / Monday, May 10, 2021 / Proposed Rules
nonattainment area for the 2008 ozone
standards.101 The EPA approved the 15
percent ROP demonstration for the 1997
ozone NAAQS, effective July 24,
2017.102
With respect to the RFP
demonstration requirement, the 2016
WMD Attainment Plan includes an RFP
demonstration derived from a 2012 RFP
baseline year.103 In response to the
South Coast II decision, CARB
developed the 2018 SIP Update, which
includes a section that replaces the RFP
portion of the 2016 WMD Attainment
Plan with an updated RFP
demonstration based on a 2011 RFP
baseline year.104 To develop the 2011
RFP baseline inventory, CARB relied on
actual emissions reported from
industrial point sources for year 2011.
For emissions from smaller stationary
sources and area sources, CARB
backcast emissions from 2012 to 2011
using the same growth and control
factors as were used for the 2016 WMD
Attainment Plan. To develop the
emissions inventories for the 2017, 2020
and 2023 RFP milestone years, CARB
also relied upon the same growth and
control factors as the 2016 WMD
Attainment Plan. Therefore, the
emissions estimates for the attainment
year, 2026, are consistent in both the
2018 SIP Update and the 2016 WMD
Attainment Plan.
Documentation for the WMD RFP
baseline and milestone emissions
inventories is found in the 2018 SIP
Update on pages 36–37 and in
Appendix A of the 2018 SIP Update on
pages A–19 through A–22. The RFP
baseline emissions inventories reflect
rules identified in Table 5 of the CARB
Staff Report.
Table 2 provides a summary of
CARB’s emissions estimates in tpd for
VOC and NOX for the 2011 RFP baseline
year, the 2017, 2020, 2023 RFP
milestone years, and the 2026 RFP
milestone/attainment year, evaluated
relative to the percentage reductions
necessary to demonstrate RFP.
TABLE 2—WMD RFP DEMONSTRATION FOR THE 2008 OZONE NAAQS
[Summer planning inventory, tpd or percent]
2011
2017
2020
2023
2026
VOCs
Baseline VOC ......................................................................
Transportation conformity safety margin .............................
Baseline VOC + safety margin ............................................
Required % change since 2011 ..........................................
Target VOC level .................................................................
Apparent shortfall/surplus, tpd .............................................
Apparent shortfall ( ¥ )/surplus ( + ) in VOC .....................
VOC shortfall previously provided by NOX substitution, %
Actual VOC shortfall ( ¥ )/surplus ( + ), % .........................
48.7
........................
48.7
........................
........................
........................
........................
........................
........................
41.5
0
41.5
18%
40.0
¥1.5
¥3.1%
0
¥3.1%
40.4
0
40.4
27%
35.6
¥4.8
¥9.9%
3.1%
¥6.8%
40.4
0
40.4
36%
31.2
¥9.2
¥18.8%
9.9%
¥8.9%
40.5
0.2
40.7
45%
26.8
¥13.9
¥28.4%
18.8%
¥9.6%
98.4
0
98.4
........................
........................
84.5
0
84.5
13.8
14.1%
79.8
0
79.8
18.6
18.9%
72.1
0
72.1
26.2
26.7%
68.5
0.4
68.9
29.4
29.9%
........................
0
3.1%
9.9%
18.8%
........................
14.1%
15.8%
16.7%
11.1%
........................
3.1%
6.8%
8.9%
9.6%
........................
........................
........................
10.9%
0%
Yes
9.0%
0%
Yes
7.9%
0%
Yes
1.5%
0%
Yes
NOX
Baseline NOX .......................................................................
Transportation conformity safety margin .............................
Baseline NOX + safety margin .............................................
Change in NOX since 2011, tpd ..........................................
Change in NOX since 2011, % ............................................
NOX reductions used for VOC substitution through last
milestone year, % .............................................................
NOX reductions since 2011 available for VOC substitution
in this milestone year, % ..................................................
NOX reductions since 2011 available for VOC substitution
in this milestone year, % ..................................................
NOX reductions since 2011 surplus after meeting VOC
substitution needs in this milestone year, % ...................
Total shortfall for RFP ..........................................................
RFP met? .............................................................................
khammond on DSKJM1Z7X2PROD with PROPOSALS
Source: Table VI–2, 2018 SIP Update.
The revised RFP demonstration
calculates future year VOC targets from
the 2011 baseline, consistent with CAA
182(c)(2)(B)(i), which requires
reductions of ‘‘at least 3 percent of
baseline emissions each year,’’ and it
substitutes NOX reductions for VOC
reductions beginning in milestone year
2017 to meet VOC emission targets. NOX
substitution is permitted under EPA
regulations at 40 CFR 51.1110(a)(2)(i)(C)
and 40 CFR 51.1110(a)(2)(ii)(B). As
3 of both Districts’ Attainment Plans.
FR 28560 (June 23, 2017).
stated in the WOE in the CARB Staff
Report, ‘‘given Western Mojave’s
downwind location from the only two
extreme ozone nonattainment areas in
the country, it is expected that ozone
formation would be limited by available
NOX emissions,’’ meaning that NOX
reductions would be more effective at
reducing ozone concentrations than
VOC reductions. For the WMD, CARB
concluded that the revised RFP
demonstration meets the applicable
101 Chapter
103 Chapter
102 82
104 Chapter
VerDate Sep<11>2014
16:59 May 07, 2021
Jkt 253001
PO 00000
3 of both Districts’ Attainment Plans.
VI of the 2018 SIP Update.
Frm 00071
Fmt 4702
Sfmt 4702
requirements for each milestone year as
well as the attainment year.
3. The EPA’s Review of the State’s
Submission
Consistent with the 2008 Ozone SRR,
the EPA’s final approval of the 15
percent ROP demonstration for the 1997
ozone NAAQS fulfills the requirements
of CAA section 182(b)(1) for WMD for
the 2008 ozone NAAQS.105
With respect to the RFP
demonstration requirement, based on
105 82
E:\FR\FM\10MYP1.SGM
FR 13086 (March 9, 2017).
10MYP1
Federal Register / Vol. 86, No. 88 / Monday, May 10, 2021 / Proposed Rules
1. Statutory and Regulatory
Requirements
Section 182(d)(1)(A) of the Act
requires a state to submit a revision for
each area classified as Serious or above
that identifies and adopts specific
enforceable transportation control
strategies (TCSs) and transportation
control measures (TCMs) to offset any
growth in emissions from growth in
vehicle miles traveled (VMT) or number
of vehicle trips in such area.107 Herein,
we use ‘‘VMT’’ to refer to vehicle miles
traveled and refer to the related SIP
requirement as the ‘‘VMT emissions
offset requirement.’’ In addition, we
refer to the SIP revision intended to
demonstrate compliance with the VMT
emissions offset requirement as the
‘‘VMT emissions offset demonstration.’’
In Association of Irritated Residents v.
EPA, the United States Court of Appeals
for the Ninth Circuit (‘‘Ninth Circuit’’)
ruled that additional TCMs are required
whenever vehicle emissions are
projected to be higher than they would
have been had VMT not increased, even
when aggregate vehicle emissions are
actually decreasing.108 In response to
the Ninth Circuit’s decision, the EPA
issued a memorandum titled ‘‘Guidance
on Implementing Clean Air Act Section
182(d)(1)(A): Transportation Control
Measures and Transportation Control
Strategies to Offset Growth in Emissions
Due to Growth in Vehicle Miles
Travelled’’ (‘‘August 2012
Guidance’’).109
The August 2012 Guidance discusses
the meaning of TCSs and TCMs and
recommends that both TCSs and TCMs
be included in the calculations made for
the purpose of determining the degree to
which any hypothetical growth in
emissions due to growth in VMT should
be offset. Generally, TCSs encompass
many types of controls (including, for
example, motor vehicle emissions
limitations, I/M programs, alternative
fuel programs, other technology-based
measures, and TCMs) that would fit
within the regulatory definition of
‘‘control strategy.’’ 110 Such measures
include, but are not limited to, those
listed in CAA section 108(f). TCM is
defined at 40 CFR 51.100(r) as meaning
‘‘any measure that is directed toward
reducing emissions of air pollutants
from transportation sources,’’ including,
but not limited to, those listed in section
108(f) of the CAA. TCMs generally refer
to programs intended to reduce VMT,
the number of vehicle trips, or traffic
congestion, including, e.g., programs for
improved public transit, designation of
certain lanes for passenger buses and
high-occupancy vehicles, and trip
reduction ordinances.
The August 2012 Guidance explains
how states may demonstrate that the
VMT emissions offset requirement is
satisfied in conformance with the Ninth
Circuit’s ruling. The August 2012
Guidance recommends that states
estimate emissions for the
nonattainment area’s base year and
attainment year. One emissions
inventory is developed for the base year,
and three different emissions inventory
106 Additional evaluation of this matter is
discussed in Section V of the TSD supporting this
notice.
107 CAA section 182(d)(1)(A) includes three
separate elements. In short, under section
182(d)(1)(A), states are required to adopt
transportation control strategies and measures (1) to
offset growth in emissions from growth in VMT,
and, (2) in combination with other emission
reduction requirements, to demonstrate RFP, and
(3) to demonstrate attainment. For more information
on the EPA’s interpretation of the three elements of
section 182(d)(1)(A), see 77 FR 58067, at 58068
(September 19, 2012) (proposed withdrawal of
approval of South Coast VMT emissions offset
demonstrations).
108 Association of Irritated Residents v. EPA, 632
F.3d. 584, at 596–597 (9th Cir. 2011), reprinted as
amended on January 27, 2012, 686 F.3d 668, further
amended February 13, 2012 (‘‘Association of
Irritated Residents’’).
109 Memorandum from Karl Simon, Director,
Transportation and Climate Division, Office of
Transportation and Air Quality, to Carl Edlund,
Director, Multimedia Planning and Permitting
Division, EPA Region VI, and Deborah Jordan,
Director, Air Division, EPA Region IX, August 30,
2012.
110 See, e.g., 40 CFR 51.100(n). TCMs are defined
at 40 CFR 51.100(r) as meaning any measure that
is directed toward reducing emissions of air
pollutants from transportation sources.
our review of the emissions inventory
documentation in the 2018 SIP Update,
we find that CARB and the District have
used the most recent planning and
activity assumptions, emissions models,
and methodologies in developing the
RFP baseline and milestone year
emissions inventories. We have also
reviewed and verified the calculations
in Table VI–3 of the 2018 SIP Update.
Furthermore, we find that NOX emission
reductions are as effective as VOC
emission reductions in reducing levels
of ozone within the Western Mojave
Desert.106 For these reasons, we have
determined that the 2018 SIP Update
demonstrates RFP in the 2017, 2020,
and 2023 milestone years as well as the
2026 milestone/attainment year,
consistent with applicable CAA
requirements and EPA guidance.
Therefore, we propose to approve the
RFP demonstration for the WMD for the
2008 ozone NAAQS under sections
172(c)(2) and 182(c)(2)(B) of the CAA
and 40 CFR 51.1110(a)(2)(ii).
khammond on DSKJM1Z7X2PROD with PROPOSALS
F. Transportation Control Strategies and
Measures To Offset Emissions Increases
From Vehicle Miles Traveled
VerDate Sep<11>2014
16:59 May 07, 2021
Jkt 253001
PO 00000
Frm 00072
Fmt 4702
Sfmt 4702
24821
scenarios are developed for the
attainment year. For the attainment
year, the state would present three
emissions estimates, two of which
would represent hypothetical emissions
scenarios that would provide the basis
to identify the growth in emissions due
solely to the growth in VMT, and one
that would represent projected actual
motor vehicle emissions after fully
accounting for projected VMT growth
and offsetting emissions reductions
obtained by all creditable TCSs and
TCMs. See the August 2012 Guidance
for specific details on how states might
conduct the calculations.
The base year on-road VOC emissions
should be calculated using VMT in that
year and should reflect all enforceable
TCSs and TCMs in place in the base
year. This would include vehicle
emissions standards, state and local
control programs such as I/M programs
or fuel rules, and any additional
implemented TCSs and TCMs that were
already required by or credited in the
SIP as of that base year.
The first of the emissions calculations
for the attainment year would be based
on the projected VMT and trips for that
year and assume that no new TCSs or
TCMs beyond those already credited in
the base year inventory have been put
in place since the base year. This
calculation demonstrates how emissions
would hypothetically change if no new
TCSs or TCMs were implemented, and
VMT and trips were allowed to grow at
the projected rate from the base year.
This estimate would show the potential
for an increase in emissions due solely
to growth in VMT and trips. This
represents a ‘‘no action’’ scenario.
Emissions in the attainment year in this
scenario may be lower than those in the
base year due to fleet turnover; however,
if VMT and/or numbers of vehicle trips
are projected to increase in the
attainment year, emissions would still
likely be higher than if VMT had held
constant.
The second of the attainment year’s
emissions calculations would assume
that no new TCSs or TCMs beyond
those already credited have been put in
place since the base year, but it would
also assume that there was no growth in
VMT and trips between the base year
and attainment year. This estimate
reflects the hypothetical emissions level
that would have occurred if no further
TCMs or TCSs had been put in place
and if VMT and trip levels had held
constant since the base year. Like the
‘‘no action’’ attainment year estimate
described above, emissions in the
attainment year may be lower than those
in the base year due to fleet turnover,
but in this case emissions would not be
E:\FR\FM\10MYP1.SGM
10MYP1
24822
Federal Register / Vol. 86, No. 88 / Monday, May 10, 2021 / Proposed Rules
influenced by any growth in VMT or
trips. This emissions estimate would
reflect a ceiling on the attainment
emissions that should be allowed to
occur under the statute as interpreted by
the Ninth Circuit because it shows what
would happen under a scenario in
which no offsetting TCSs or TCMs have
yet been put in place and VMT and trips
are held constant during the period from
the area’s base year to its attainment
year. This represents a ‘‘VMT offset
ceiling’’ scenario. These two
hypothetical status quo estimates are
necessary steps in identifying the target
level of emissions from which states
determine whether further TCMs or
TCSs, beyond those that have been
adopted and implemented in reality,
would need to be adopted and
implemented in order to fully offset any
increase in emissions due solely to VMT
and trips identified in the ‘‘no action’’
scenario.
Finally, the state would present the
emissions that are actually expected to
occur in the area’s attainment year after
taking into account reductions from all
enforceable TCSs and TCMs put in
place after the baseline year. This
estimate would be based on the VMT
and trip levels expected to occur in the
attainment year (i.e., the VMT and trip
levels from the first estimate) and all of
the TCSs and TCMs expected to be in
place and for which the SIP will take
credit in the area’s attainment year,
including any TCMs and TCSs put in
place since the base year. This
represents the ‘‘projected actual’’
attainment year scenario. If this
emissions estimate is less than or equal
to the emissions ceiling that was
established in the second of the
attainment year calculations, the TCSs
or TCMs for the attainment year would
be sufficient to fully offset the identified
hypothetical growth in emissions.
Alternatively, if the estimated
projected actual attainment year
emissions are still greater than the
ceiling that was established in the
second of the attainment year emissions
calculations, even after accounting for
post-baseline year TCSs and TCMs, the
state would need to adopt and
implement additional TCSs or TCMs to
further offset the growth in emissions.
The additional TCSs or TCMs would
need to bring the actual emissions down
to at least the ‘‘had VMT and trips held
constant’’ ceiling estimated in the
second of the attainment year
calculations, in order to meet the VMT
offset requirement of section
182(d)(1)(A) as interpreted by the Ninth
Circuit.
2. Summary of the State’s Submission
The VMT emissions offset
demonstration for the WMD for the 2008
ozone NAAQS is contained in Chapter
3 of the Districts’ Attainment Plans.111
For the VMT emissions offset
demonstration, CARB used
EMFAC2014, the latest EPA-approved
motor vehicle emissions model for
California available at the time the 2016
WMD Attainment Plan was
developed.112 The EMFAC2014 model
estimates the on-road emissions from
two combustion processes (i.e., running
exhaust and start exhaust) and four
evaporative processes (i.e., hot soak,
running losses, diurnal losses, and
resting losses). The EMFAC2014 model
combines trip-based VMT data from the
regional transportation planning agency
(i.e., SCAG), starts data based on
household travel surveys, and vehicle
population data from the California
Department of Motor Vehicles. These
sets of data are combined with
corresponding emission rates to
calculate emissions.
Emissions from running exhaust, start
exhaust, hot soak, and running losses
are a function of how much a vehicle is
driven. Emissions from these processes
are thus directly related to VMT and
vehicle trips, and the analysis included
these emissions in the calculations that
provide the basis for the WMD VMT
emissions offset demonstration. The
analysis did not include emissions from
resting loss and diurnal loss processes
in the analysis because such emissions
are related to vehicle population, not to
VMT or vehicle trips, and thus are not
part of ‘‘any growth in emissions from
growth in vehicle miles traveled or
numbers of vehicle trips in such area’’
under CAA section 182(d)(1)(A).
The WMD VMT emissions offset
demonstration uses a 2012 base year.
The base year for VMT emissions offset
demonstration purposes should
generally be the same base year used for
nonattainment planning purposes. In
section III.A of this document, the EPA
is proposing to approve the 2012 base
year inventory for the WMD for the
purposes of the 2008 ozone NAAQS,
and thus, the selection of 2012 as the
base year for the WMD VMT emissions
offset demonstration for the 2008 ozone
NAAQS is appropriate.
The WMD VMT emissions offset
demonstration also includes the
previously described three different
attainment year scenarios (i.e., no
action, VMT offset ceiling, and
projected actual). The 2016 WMD
Attainment Plan provides a
demonstration of attainment of the 2008
ozone NAAQS in the WMD by the
applicable attainment date, based on the
controlled 2026 emissions inventory. As
described in section III.D of this
document, the EPA is proposing to
approve the attainment demonstration
for the 2008 ozone NAAQS for the
WMD, and thus, we find the selection
of year 2026 as the attainment year for
the VMT emissions offset demonstration
for the 2008 ozone NAAQS to be
acceptable.
Table 3 summarizes the relevant
distinguishing parameters for each of
the emissions scenarios and shows
CARB’s corresponding VOC emissions
estimates for the demonstration for the
2008 ozone NAAQS.
TABLE 3—VMT EMISSIONS OFFSET INVENTORY SCENARIOS AND RESULTS FOR 2008 OZONE NAAQS
VMT
Scenario
1,000 miles/
day
khammond on DSKJM1Z7X2PROD with PROPOSALS
Year
Base Year ................................................
No Action .................................................
VMT Offset Ceiling ...................................
Actual Projected .......................................
Starts
2012
2026
2012
2026
Year
26,536
34,724
26,536
34,724
1,000/day
2012
2026
2012
2026
4,470
5,238
4,470
5,238
Controls
VOC
emissions
Year
Tpd
2012
2012
2012
2026
12.4
6.5
5.3
4.6
Source: AVAQMD Attainment Plan, 23–27, and MDAQMD Attainment Plan, 26–29.
111 AVAQMD Attainment Plan, 23, and
MDAQMD Attainment Plan, 25.
VerDate Sep<11>2014
16:59 May 07, 2021
Jkt 253001
112 On August 15, 2019, the EPA approved and
announced the availability of EMFAC2017, the
latest update to the EMFAC model for use by State
PO 00000
Frm 00073
Fmt 4702
Sfmt 4702
and local governments to meet CAA requirements.
See 84 FR 41717.
E:\FR\FM\10MYP1.SGM
10MYP1
Federal Register / Vol. 86, No. 88 / Monday, May 10, 2021 / Proposed Rules
3. The EPA’s Review of the State’s
Submission
Based on our review of the WMD
VMT emissions offset demonstration in
the 2016 WMD Attainment Plan, we
find CARB’s analysis to be consistent
with our August 2012 Guidance and
consistent with the emissions and
vehicle activity estimates provided by
CARB in support of the 2016 AQMP. We
agree that the TCSs and TCMs in place
for the area are sufficient to offset the
growth in emissions from growth in
VMT and vehicle trips in the WMD for
the purposes of the 2008 8-hour ozone
standards. As such, we find that the
WMD VMT emissions offset
demonstration complies with the VMT
emissions offset requirement in CAA
section 182(d)(1)(A). Therefore, we
propose approval of the WMD VMT
emissions offset demonstration portion
of the 2016 WMD Attainment Plan.
G. Contingency Measures
khammond on DSKJM1Z7X2PROD with PROPOSALS
1. Statutory and Regulatory
Requirements
Under the CAA, SIPs for 8-hour ozone
nonattainment areas classified under
subpart 2 as Moderate or above must
include contingency measures
consistent with sections 172(c)(9) and
182(c)(9). Contingency measures are
additional controls or measures to be
implemented in the event an area fails
to make RFP or to attain the NAAQS by
the attainment date. The SIP should
contain trigger mechanisms for the
contingency measures, specify a
schedule for implementation, and
indicate that the measure will be
implemented without significant further
action by the state or the EPA.113
Neither the CAA nor the EPA’s
implementing regulations establish a
specific level of emissions reductions
that implementation of contingency
measures must achieve, but the EPA’s
2008 Ozone SRR reiterates the EPA’s
policy that contingency measures
should generally provide for emissions
reductions approximately equivalent to
one year’s worth progress, amounting to
reductions of 3 percent of the baseline
emissions inventory for the
nonattainment area.114
It has been the EPA’s longstanding
interpretation of CAA section 172(c)(9)
that states may meet the contingency
measure requirement by relying on
federal measures (e.g., federal mobile
source measures based on the
incremental turnover of the motor
113 70 FR 71612 (November 29, 2005). See also
2008 Ozone SRR, 80 FR 12264, 12285 (March 6,
2015).
114 80 FR 12264, 12285 (March 6, 2015).
VerDate Sep<11>2014
16:59 May 07, 2021
Jkt 253001
vehicle fleet each year) and local
measures already scheduled for
implementation that provide emissions
reductions in excess of those needed to
provide for RFP or expeditious
attainment. The key is that the Act
requires contingency measures to
provide for additional emissions
reductions that are not relied on for RFP
or attainment and that are not included
in the RFP or attainment demonstrations
as meeting part or all of the contingency
measure requirements. The purpose of
contingency measures is to provide
continued emissions reductions while a
plan is being revised to meet the missed
milestone or attainment date.
The EPA has approved numerous SIPs
under this interpretation—i.e., SIPs that
use as contingency measures one or
more federal or local measures that are
in place and provide reductions in
excess of the reductions required by the
attainment demonstration or RFP
plan,115 and there is case law
supporting the EPA’s interpretation in
this regard.116 However, in Bahr v. EPA,
the Ninth Circuit rejected the EPA’s
interpretation of CAA section 172(c)(9)
as allowing for early implementation of
contingency measures.117 The Ninth
Circuit concluded that contingency
measures must take effect at the time the
area fails to make RFP or attain by the
applicable attainment date, not
before.118 The D.C. Circuit recently
reached a similar conclusion regarding
the contingency measure provisions in
CAA sections 172(c)(9) and 182(c)(9), in
Sierra Club v. EPA.119 Following these
decisions, states cannot rely on earlyimplemented measures to comply with
the contingency measure requirements
under CAA section 172(c)(9) and
182(c)(9).
2. Summary of the State’s Submission
The Districts and CARB had largely
prepared the 2016 WMD Attainment
Plan prior to the Bahr and Sierra Club
decisions; therefore, the plan relies
115 See, e.g., 62 FR 15844 (April 3, 1997) (direct
final rule approving an Indiana ozone SIP revision);
62 FR 66279 (December 18, 1997) (final rule
approving an Illinois ozone SIP revision); 66 FR
30811 (June 8, 2001) (direct final rule approving a
Rhode Island ozone SIP revision); 66 FR 586
(January 3, 2001) (final rule approving District of
Columbia, Maryland, and Virginia ozone SIP
revisions); and 66 FR 634 (January 3, 2001) (final
rule approving a Connecticut ozone SIP revision).
116 See, e.g., LEAN v. EPA, 382 F.3d 575 (5th Cir.
2004) (upholding contingency measures that were
previously required and implemented where they
were in excess of the attainment demonstration and
RFP SIP).
117 Bahr v. EPA, 836 F.3d at 1235–1237 (9th Cir.
2016) (‘‘Bahr’’).
118 Id. at 1235–1237.
119 Sierra Club v. EPA, 985 F.3d 1055 (D.C. Cir.
2021) (‘‘Sierra Club’’).
PO 00000
Frm 00074
Fmt 4702
Sfmt 4702
24823
solely upon surplus emissions
reductions from already implemented
control measures in the RFP milestone
years to demonstrate compliance with
the RFP milestone contingency
measures requirements of CAA sections
172(c)(9) and 182(c)(9).120 The plan also
demonstrates compliance with the
attainment contingency measures
requirements using surplus emissions
reductions (in the year after the
attainment year), and separately
identifies use of the State’s enhanced
I/M program as an attainment
contingency measure.121
In the 2018 SIP Update, CARB revised
the RFP demonstration for the 2008
ozone NAAQS for the WMD and
recalculated the extent of surplus
emission reductions in the milestone
years. Consistent with the Bahr decision
(and the later Sierra Club decision), the
2018 SIP Update does not rely on the
surplus or incremental emissions
reductions to comply with the
contingency measures requirements of
sections 172(c)(9) and 182(c)(9) but
instead documents the extent to which
future baseline emissions would
provide surplus emissions reductions
beyond those required to meet
applicable contingency measure
requirements, to provide context for
determining the magnitude of the
contingency measures needed for the
2008 ozone NAAQS.
The 2018 SIP Update identifies one
year’s worth of RFP as approximately
1.5 tpd of VOC. The 2018 SIP Update
estimates surplus NOX reductions for
RFP as ranging from approximately 10.7
tpd in 2017 to 7.8 tpd in 2023, and
estimates that implementation of the
state control measures will result in an
additional 0.2 tpd VOC and 1.6 tpd of
NOX emissions reductions occuring in
the year after the attainment year.122
In subsequent communications, CARB
has clarified that the proposed
contingency measure would involve
implementation of enhanced I/M
specifically in those areas of the WMD
subject to MDAQMD jurisdiction that
are currently subject only to basic I/M
requirements.123 As described by the
MDAQMD, within 30 days of a finding
by the EPA that the WMD has either
failed to meet an RFP milestone for the
2008 ozone NAAQS or failed to attain
the 2008 ozone NAAQS by the
120 AQAQMD Attainment Plan, 20; MDAQMD
Attainment Plan, 22.
121 Id. AQAQMD Attainment Plan, 18; MDAQMD
Attainment Plan, 20.
122 2018 SIP Update, Chapter VI, Tables VI–4, VI–
5, and VI–6.
123 Email dated November 20, 2020, from Ariel
Fideldy (CARB) to Tom Kelly (EPA), Subject: West
Mojave Desert Contingency Measures.
E:\FR\FM\10MYP1.SGM
10MYP1
24824
Federal Register / Vol. 86, No. 88 / Monday, May 10, 2021 / Proposed Rules
attainment deadline, the MDAQMD
Executive Officer will transmit a formal
letter to the California Bureau of
Automotive Repair (BAR) requesting
implementation of the enhanced I/M
program throughout the entirety of the
portion of the WMD that is subject to
the District’s jurisdiction. Upon
receiving the District’s letter, BAR
would initiate the program and notify
the relevant stakeholders of the updated
requirements in the area. This
procedure is described in section
44003(c) of the California Health and
Safety Code, and no additional
regulations would need to be
adopted.124 CARB estimates that
implementation of the enhanced I/M
program for this region will result in
additional emissions reductions of 0.03
tpd of VOC and 0.04 tpd of NOX.125
The MDAQMD has committed to
submit a Board resolution further
detailing the circumstances, timing, and
procedure for implementing this
contingency measure, within eleven
months of the EPA’s final conditional
approval of the contingency measures
element of the 2016 WMD Attainment
Plan.126 CARB, in turn, has committed
to submit the Board resolution to the
EPA for SIP approval within 12 months
of the EPA’s final conditional
approval.127
khammond on DSKJM1Z7X2PROD with PROPOSALS
3. The EPA’s Review of the State’s
Submission
Sections 172(c)(9) and 182(c)(9) of the
CAA require contingency measures to
address potential failure to achieve RFP
milestones or failure to attain the
NAAQS by the applicable attainment
date. To evaluate the contingency
measure element of the 2016 WMD
Attainment Plan, we find it useful to
distinguish between contingency
124 Letter dated March 29, 2021, from Brad
Poiriez, Executive Officer, MDAQMD, to Richard
Corey, Executive Officer, CARB. The EPA approved
California Health and Safety Code section 44003(c)
into the California SIP at 75 FR 38023 (July 1, 2010).
125 Letter dated April 9, 2021, from Michael
Benjamin, Chief, Air Quality Planning and Science
Division, CARB, to Deborah Jordan, Acting Regional
Administrator, EPA Region IX. CARB indicates that
these figures represent conservative estimates of the
potential emissions reductions that would result
from implementation of the contingency measure,
because they are derived from residential
populations that may underrepresent the actual
vehicle populations located within the zip codes
currently subject to basic I/M. See Attachment A to
letter dated April 9, 2021, from Michael Benjamin,
Chief, Air Quality Planning and Science Division,
CARB, to Deborah Jordan, Acting Regional
Administrator, EPA Region IX.
126 Letter dated March 29, 2021, from Brad
Poiriez, Executive Officer, MDAQMD, to Richard
Corey, Executive Officer, CARB.
127 Letter dated April 9, 2021, from Michael
Benjamin, Chief, Air Quality Planning and Science
Division, CARB, to Deborah Jordan, Acting Regional
Administrator, EPA Region IX.
VerDate Sep<11>2014
16:59 May 07, 2021
Jkt 253001
measures to address potential failure to
achieve RFP milestones (‘‘RFP
contingency measures’’) and
contingency measures to address
potential failure to attain the NAAQS
(‘‘attainment contingency measures’’).
With respect to the RFP contingency
measure requirement, we have reviewed
the surplus emissions estimates in each
of the RFP milestone years, as shown in
the 2018 SIP Update, and find that the
calculations are correct. Therefore, we
agree that the emission estimates from
the 2018 SIP Update provide surplus
reductions well beyond those necessary
to demonstrate RFP in the RFP
milestone years. While such surplus
emissions reductions in the RFP
milestone years do not represent
contingency measures themselves, we
believe they are relevant in evaluating
the adequacy of RFP contingency
measures that are submitted (or will be
submitted) to meet the requirements of
sections 172(c)(9) and 182(c)(9).
In this case, the MDAQMD and CARB
have committed to develop, adopt, and
submit a Board resolution further
detailing the circumstances, timing, and
procedure for implementing enhanced
I/M requirements in the portion of the
WMD that is currently subject to basic
I/M, should the WMD fail to meet an
RFP milestone. The specific
commitment of the MDAQMD upon an
RFP milestone failure (i.e., changing
from basic to enhanced I/M) complies
with the requirements in CAA sections
172(c)(9) and 182(c)(9) because it would
be undertaken if the area fails to meet
an RFP milestone and would take effect
without further significant action by the
District, the State, or the EPA.128
To assess the adequacy of the RFP
contingency measure (once adopted and
submitted), we next consider the
magnitude of emissions reductions the
measure would provide if triggered.
Neither the CAA nor the EPA’s
implementing regulations for the ozone
NAAQS establish a specific amount of
emissions reductions that
implementation of contingency
measures must achieve, but we
generally expect that contingency
measures should provide for emissions
reductions equivalent to approximately
128 Section 182(c)(3) of the CAA requires states
with ozone nonattainment areas classified under
subpart 2 as Serious or above to implement an
enhanced motor vehicle I/M program in each
urbanized area within the nonattainment area.
Section 182(c)(3) further explains that urbanized
areas are ‘‘defined by the Bureau of the Census,
with a 1980 population of 200,000 or more.’’
Because parts of the MDAQMD within the WMD
were not considered urbanized areas in 1980, only
part of the WMD is subject to enhanced I/M. All of
the area under the jurisdiction of the AVAQMD is
subject to enhanced I/M.
PO 00000
Frm 00075
Fmt 4702
Sfmt 4702
one year’s worth of RFP, which, for
ozone, amounts to reductions of 3
percent of the baseline emissions
inventory for the nonattainment area.
For the 2008 ozone NAAQS in the
WMD, one year’s worth of RFP is
approximately 1.5 tpd of VOC, or 3.0
tpd of NOX reductions, or a combination
of the two calculated on a percentage
basis.129 In its commitment letter, CARB
conservatively estimates the potential
additional emissions reductions from
the contingency measure commitments
at 0.03 tpd of VOC and 0.04 tpd of NOX.
While these amounts collectively reflect
less than one year’s worth of RFP, the
2018 SIP Update provides the larger SIP
planning context with which to judge
the adequacy of the to-be-submitted
District contingency measures, by
calculating the surplus emissions
reductions estimated to be achieved in
the RFP milestone years. The estimates
of surplus NOX reductions range from
10.7 to 7.8 tpd, depending on the RFP
year, which represents more than twice
one year’s worth of progress (3.0 tpd of
NOX).130 The surplus reflects already
implemented regulations and is
primarily the result of vehicle turnover,
which refers to the ongoing replacement
by individuals, companies, and
government agencies of older, more
polluting vehicles and engines with
newer vehicles and engines. In light of
these surplus NOX emissions reductions
in the RFP milestone years, the
emissions reductions from the
committed contingency measure are
adequate to meet the contingency
measure requirements of the CAA with
respect to RFP milestones.
For attainment contingency measure
purposes, we evaluate the emissions
reductions from the District’s
contingency measures in the context of
the expected reduction in emissions
within the WMD in the year following
the attainment year, relative to those
occurring in the attainment year. In
2027, VOC and NOX emissions for the
WMD are expected to be approximately
0.2 and 1.6 tpd, respectively, lower than
the emissions in 2026. Considered
together, the continuing reductions from
already-implemented measures and the
emissions reductions from the
MDAQMD’s contingency measure
provide for emissions reductions near
to, but below, one year’s worth of
progress.131 Therefore, we find that the
129 The 2011 baseline for VOC and NO is 48.7
X
tpd and 98.4 tpd, respectively, as shown in table
VI–1 of the 2018 SIP Update. Three percent of these
baselines is 1.5 tpd of VOC and 3.0 tpd of NOX.
130 2018 SIP Update, Table VI–5.
131 Combined reductions (0.23 tpd VOC and 1.64
tpd NOX) represent 70 percent of one year’s RFP
(15.3 percent of 1.5 tpd VOC; 54.7 percent of 3.0
E:\FR\FM\10MYP1.SGM
10MYP1
24825
Federal Register / Vol. 86, No. 88 / Monday, May 10, 2021 / Proposed Rules
contingency measures described in the
MDAQMD’s and CARB’s commitment
letters would provide sufficient
emissions reductions to satisfy the
attainment contingency measures
requirement, even though reductions
from the measures would be lower than
one year’s worth of RFP.
For these reasons, we propose to
conditionally approve the contingency
measures element of the 2016 WMD
attainment plan, as supplemented by
the commitment from the MDAQMD
and CARB to adopt and submit an
MDAQMD Board resolution detailing
the circumstances, timing, and
procedure for implementing the
contingency measure requirements of
CAA sections 172(c)(9) and 182(c)(9).
Our proposed approval is conditional
because it relies upon specific
commitments from MDAQMD and
CARB. Conditional approvals are
authorized under CAA section 110(k)(4).
H. Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets for
Transportation Conformity
1. Statutory and Regulatory
Requirements
Section 176(c) of the CAA requires
federal actions in nonattainment and
maintenance areas to conform to the
SIP’s goals of eliminating or reducing
the severity and number of violations of
the NAAQS and achieving expeditious
attainment of the standards. Conformity
to the SIP’s goals means that such
actions will not: (1) Cause or contribute
to violations of a NAAQS, (2) worsen
the severity of an existing violation, or
(3) delay timely attainment of any
NAAQS or any interim milestone.
Actions involving Federal Highway
Administration (FHWA) or Federal
Transit Administration (FTA) funding
or approval are subject to the EPA’s
transportation conformity rule, codified
at 40 CFR part 93, subpart A. Under this
rule, metropolitan planning
organizations (MPO) in nonattainment
and maintenance areas coordinate with
state and local air quality and
transportation agencies, the EPA, the
FHWA, and the FTA to demonstrate that
an area’s regional transportation plans
and transportation improvement
programs conform to the applicable SIP.
This demonstration is typically done by
showing that estimated emissions from
existing and planned highway and
transit systems are less than or equal to
the motor vehicle emissions budgets
(MVEBs or ‘‘budgets’’) contained in all
control strategy SIPs. Budgets are
generally established for specific years
and specific pollutants or precursors.
Ozone plans should identify budgets for
on-road emissions of ozone precursors
(NOX and VOC) in the area for each RFP
milestone year and, if the plan
demonstrates attainment, the attainment
year.132
For motor vehicle emissions budgets
to be approvable, they must meet, at a
minimum, the EPA’s adequacy criteria
(40 CFR 93.118(e)(4) and (5)) and be
approvable under all pertinent SIP
requirements. To meet these
requirements, the MVEBs must be
consistent with the approvable
attainment and RFP demonstrations and
reflect all of the motor vehicle control
measures contained in the attainment
and RFP demonstrations.133 Budgets
may include a safety margin
representing the difference between
projected emissions and the total
amount of emissions estimated to satisfy
any requirements for attainment or RFP.
The EPA’s process for determining
adequacy of a MVEB consists of three
basic steps: (1) Providing public
notification of a SIP submission; (2)
providing the public the opportunity to
comment on the MVEB during a public
comment period; and, (3) making a
finding of adequacy or inadequacy.134
2. Summary of the State’s Submission
The 2016 WMD Attainment Plan
includes budgets for the 2018, 2021, and
2024 RFP milestone years, and a 2026
attainment year. The budgets for 2018,
2021, and 2024 were derived from the
2012 RFP baseline year and the
associated RFP milestone years. These
budgets are affected by the South Coast
II decision vacating the alternative
baseline year provision, and therefore,
the EPA has not previously acted on the
budgets.
The 2018 SIP Update revised the RFP
demonstration consistent with the
South Coast II decision (i.e., by using a
2011 RFP baseline year) and identifies
new budgets for the WMD for VOC and
NOX for each updated RFP milestone
year through 2026. The budgets in the
2018 SIP Update replace the budgets
contained in the 2016 WMD Attainment
Plan. Like the budgets in the 2016 WMD
Attainment Plan, the budgets in the
2018 SIP Update were calculated using
EMFAC2014, the version of CARB’s
EMFAC model approved by the EPA for
estimating emissions from on-road
vehicles operating in California at the
time the 2016 WMD Attainment Plan
and 2018 SIP Update were developed.
The budgets in the 2018 SIP Update
reflect updated VMT estimates from
SCAG’s 2016–2040 Regional
Transportation Plan/Sustainable
Communities Strategy, Amendment 2,
adopted in July 2017, and align with the
emissions inventory, RFP and
attainment demonstrations in the 2016
WMD Attainment Plan. Additionally,
the budgets in the 2018 SIP Update are
more precise because they are rounded
up to the nearest tenth of a tpd, instead
of the nearest whole number.135
The conformity budgets for NOX and
VOC in the 2018 SIP Update for the
WMD are provided in Table 4 below.
TABLE 4—WEST MOJAVE DESERT MOTOR VEHICLE EMISSIONS BUDGETS IN THE 2018 SIP UPDATE
[tpd, average summer weekday] a
khammond on DSKJM1Z7X2PROD with PROPOSALS
2020
2023
2026
VOC
NOX
VOC
NOX
On-Road Inventory ...................................
Safety Margin ...........................................
7.87
........................
17.57
........................
6.73
........................
10.98
........................
5.98
0.2
9.79
0.4
Total ..................................................
7.87
17.57
6.73
10.98
6.18
10.19
tpd NOX). Further emissions reductions are
projected to occur in upwind areas in the year
following the attainment year (see, e.g., 2016
AQMP, Chapter 3), and we anticipate that these
reductions will drive additional reductions in
ozone concentrations in the WMD in this period,
consistent with the strong influence of upwind
emissions on nonattainment in the WMD.
132 40 CFR 93.102(b)(2)(i).
VerDate Sep<11>2014
16:59 May 07, 2021
Jkt 253001
133 40 CFR 93.118(e)(4)(iii), (iv) and (v). For more
information on the transportation conformity
requirements and applicable policies on MVEBs,
please visit our transportation conformity website
at: https://www.epa.gov/otaq/stateresources/
transconf/index.htm.
134 40 CFR 93.118.
PO 00000
Frm 00076
Fmt 4702
Sfmt 4702
VOC
NOX
135 For instance, the 2016 WMD Attainment Plan
estimates that 2026 on-road vehicle emissions
(summer planning inventory) would be 7 tpd for
VOC and 11 tpd for NOX. See Appendix A, A–23
through A–26. The corresponding budgets from the
2018 SIP Update are 6.2 tpd for VOC and 10.2 tpd
for NOX. See Table VI–3 and surrounding
discussion in Section V of the TSD for this action
for additional detail.
E:\FR\FM\10MYP1.SGM
10MYP1
24826
Federal Register / Vol. 86, No. 88 / Monday, May 10, 2021 / Proposed Rules
TABLE 4—WEST MOJAVE DESERT MOTOR VEHICLE EMISSIONS BUDGETS IN THE 2018 SIP UPDATE—Continued
[tpd, average summer weekday] a
2020
VOC
MVEBs b ...................................................
2023
VOC
NOX
7.9
17.6
2026
NOX
6.8
VOC
11.0
NOX
6.2
10.2
a Source:
Table VI–3 from the 2018 SIP Update.
b Rounded up to the next tenth of a ton.
The submittal letters for both the 2016
WMD Attainment Plan and the 2018 SIP
Update include a request from CARB
that the EPA limit the duration of our
approval of the budgets to last only until
the effective date of future EPA
adequacy findings for replacement
budgets.136
khammond on DSKJM1Z7X2PROD with PROPOSALS
3. The EPA’s Review of the State’s
Submission
As part of our review of the
approvability of the budgets in the 2018
SIP Update, we have evaluated the
budgets using our adequacy criteria in
40 CFR 93.118(e)(4) and (5). We will
complete the adequacy review
concurrently with our final action on
the 2016 WMD Attainment Plan. The
EPA is not required under its
transportation conformity rule to find
budgets adequate prior to proposing
approval of them.137 Today, the EPA is
announcing that the adequacy process
for these budgets begins and the public
has 30 days to comment on their
adequacy, per the transportation
conformity regulation at 40 CFR
93.118(f)(2)(i) and (ii).
As documented in Table 5 of section
V of the EPA’s TSD for this proposal, we
preliminarily conclude that the budgets
in the 2018 SIP Update for the West
Mojave Desert meet each adequacy
criterion. While adequacy and approval
are two separate actions, reviewing the
budgets in terms of the adequacy criteria
informs the EPA’s decision to propose
to approve the budgets. We have
completed our detailed review of the
2016 WMD Attainment Plan and the
2018 SIP Update, and we are proposing
herein to approve the attainment and
RFP demonstrations. We have also
reviewed the budgets in the 2018 SIP
Update and found that they are
136 Letter dated April 9, 2021, from Michael
Benjamin, Chief, Air Quality Planning and Science
Division, CARB, to Deborah Jordan, Acting Regional
Administrator, EPA Region IX, and letter dated
December 5, 2018, from Richard Corey, Executive
Officer, CARB, to Mike Stoker, Regional
Administrator, EPA Region IX.
137 Under the transportation conformity
regulations, the EPA may review the adequacy of
submitted motor vehicle emission budgets
simultaneously with the EPA’s approval or
disapproval of the submitted implementation plan.
40 CFR 93.118(f)(2).
VerDate Sep<11>2014
16:59 May 07, 2021
Jkt 253001
consistent with the attainment and RFP
demonstrations for which we are
proposing approval, are based on
control measures that have already been
adopted and implemented, and meet all
other applicable statutory and
regulatory requirements, including the
adequacy criteria in 40 CFR
93.1118(e)(4) and (5). Therefore, we are
proposing to approve the 2023 and 2026
budgets in the 2018 SIP Update. At the
point when we finalize our adequacy
process or approve the budgets for the
2008 ozone NAAQS in the 2018 SIP
Update as proposed (whichever occurs
first; note that they could also occur
concurrently per 40 CFR
93.118(f)(2)(iii)), then these budgets will
replace the budgets that we previously
found adequate for use in transportation
conformity determinations.138
Under our transportation conformity
rule, as a general matter, once budgets
are approved, they cannot be
superseded by revised budgets
submitted for the same CAA purpose
and the same year(s) addressed by the
previously approved SIP submittal until
the EPA approves the revised budgets as
a SIP revision. In other words, as a
general matter, such approved budgets
cannot be superseded by revised
budgets found adequate, but rather only
through approval of the revised budgets,
unless the EPA specifies otherwise in its
approval of a SIP by limiting the
duration of the approval to last only
until subsequently submitted budgets
are found adequate.139
In this instance, CARB’s submittal
letters transmitting the 2016 WMD
Attainment Plan and 2018 SIP Update
requested that we limit the duration of
our approval to the effective date of an
EPA adequacy finding for subsequently
138 We found adequate the budgets from the
Antelope Valley-Western Mojave Desert 8-hour
Ozone Early Progress Plan (February 2008) for the
1997 ozone NAAQS at 73 FR 24594 (May 5, 2008).
The budgets in Table VI–3 of the 2018 SIP Update
for the 2008 ozone NAAQS are lower than the
corresponding budgets approved for the 1997 ozone
NAAQS. The current budgets of 22 tpd for VOC and
77 tpd for NOX for all years, would be replaced by
budgets of 6.8 tpd for VOC and 11.0 tpd for NOX
in 2023 and 6.2 tpd for VOC and 10.2 tpd for NOX
in 2026.
139 40 CFR 93.118(e)(1).
PO 00000
Frm 00077
Fmt 4702
Sfmt 4702
submitted budgets, and on April 9,
2021, CARB provided further
explanation for its request. Generally,
we will consider a state’s request to
limit an approval of a budget only if the
request includes the following
elements: 140
• An acknowledgement and
explanation as to why the budgets under
consideration have become outdated or
deficient;
• A commitment to update the
budgets as part of a comprehensive SIP
update; and
• A request that the EPA limit the
duration of its approval to the time
when new budgets have been found to
be adequate for transportation
conformity purposes.
CARB’s request includes an
explanation for why the budgets have
become, or will become, outdated or
deficient. In short, CARB requested that
we limit the duration of the approval of
the budgets in light of the EPA’s recent
approval of EMFAC2017, an updated
version of the EMFAC2014 model used
for the budgets in the 2018 SIP Update.
EMFAC2017 updates vehicle mix and
emissions data of the previously
approved version of the model,
EMFAC2014.
In light of the approval of
EMFAC2017, CARB requests that the
budgets from the 2016 WMD Attainment
Plan, for which we are proposing
approval in this action, will be revised
using EMFAC2017 in 2022. CARB’s
request also states, ‘‘without the ability
to replace the applicable transportation
conformity emissions budgets with
submitted budgets found adequate using
the budget adequacy process, the
benefits of using the updated data may
not be realized for a year or more after
the SIPs are submitted, due to the SIP
approval process.’’
We note that CARB has not
committed to update the budgets as part
of a comprehensive SIP update, but as
a practical matter, CARB must submit a
SIP revision that includes updated
demonstrations as well as the updated
budgets to meet the adequacy criteria in
140 67 FR 69139 (November 15, 2002) (final action
limiting our prior approval of budgets in certain
California SIPs).
E:\FR\FM\10MYP1.SGM
10MYP1
Federal Register / Vol. 86, No. 88 / Monday, May 10, 2021 / Proposed Rules
40 CFR 93.118(e)(4) for the 2015 ozone
NAAQS in 2022,141 and thus, we do not
need a specific commitment for such a
plan at this time. For the reasons
provided above, and in light of CARB’s
explanation for why the budgets will
become outdated and should be
replaced upon an adequacy finding for
updated budgets, we propose to limit
the duration of our approval of the
budgets in the 2018 SIP Update until we
find revised budgets based on
EMFAC2017 to be adequate.
I. Other Clean Air Act Requirements
Applicable to Severe Ozone
Nonattainment Areas
In addition to the requirements
discussed above, title 1, subpart D of the
CAA includes other provisions
applicable to Severe ozone
nonattainment areas, such as the WMD.
We describe these provisions and their
current status below for informational
purposes only.
1. Enhanced Vehicle Inspection and
Maintenance Programs
khammond on DSKJM1Z7X2PROD with PROPOSALS
Section 182(c)(3) of the CAA requires
states with ozone nonattainment areas
classified under subpart 2 as Serious or
above to implement an enhanced motor
vehicle I/M program in each urbanized
area within the nonattainment area. As
discussed in Section III.G.3 of this
document, Section 182(c)(3) further
explains that urbanized areas are
‘‘defined by the Bureau of the Census,
with a 1980 population of 200,000 or
more.’’ Because parts of the MDAQMD
within the WMD were not considered
urbanized areas in 1980, only part of the
WMD is subject to enhanced I/M.142
Consistent with the 2008 Ozone SRR,
no new I/M programs are currently
required for nonattainment areas for the
2008 ozone NAAQS.143 The EPA
previously approved the California I/M
program in the West Mojave Desert as
meeting the requirements of the CAA
and applicable EPA regulations for
enhanced I/M programs.144
141 Under 40 CFR 93.118(e)(4), the EPA will not
find a budget in a submitted SIP to be adequate
unless, among other criteria, the budgets, when
considered together with all other emissions
sources, are consistent with applicable
requirements for RFP and attainment. 40 CFR
93.118(e)(4)(iv).
142 As described in section III.G.2 of this
document, the State has committed to adopt a
contingency measure to implement enhanced I/M
throughout the portion of the WMD that is currently
subject to basic I/M, in the event that the area fails
to meet an RFP milestone or to attain the 2008
NAAQS by the attainment date.
143 2008 Ozone SRR, 80 FR 12264, at 12283
(March 6, 2015).
144 75 FR 38023 (July 1, 2010).
VerDate Sep<11>2014
16:59 May 07, 2021
Jkt 253001
2. New Source Review Rules
Section 182(a)(2)(C) of the CAA
requires states to develop SIP revisions
containing permit programs for each of
its ozone nonattainment areas. The SIP
revisions are to include requirements for
permits in accordance with CAA
sections 172(c)(5) and 173 for the
construction and operation of each new
or modified major stationary source for
VOC and NOX anywhere in the
nonattainment area.145 The 2008 Ozone
SRR includes provisions and guidance
for nonattainment new source review
(NSR) programs.146 We will address the
NSR requirements for the 2008 ozone
NAAQS in the WMD in a separate
action.
3. Clean Fuels Fleet Program
Sections 182(c)(4)(A) and 246 of the
CAA require California to submit to the
EPA for approval into the SIP measures
to implement a Clean Fuels Fleet
Program. Section 182(c)(4)(B) of the
CAA allows states to opt out of the
federal clean-fuel vehicle fleet program
by submitting a SIP revision consisting
of a program or programs that will result
in at least equivalent long-term
reductions in ozone precursors and
toxic air emissions.
In 1994, CARB submitted a SIP
revision to the EPA to opt out of the
federal clean-fuel fleet program and
included a demonstration that
California’s low-emissions vehicle
program achieved emissions reductions
at least as large as would be achieved by
the federal program. The EPA approved
the SIP revision to opt out of the federal
program on August 27, 1999.147 There
have been no changes to the federal
Clean Fuels Fleet program since the
EPA approved the California SIP
revision to opt out of the federal
program, and thus, no corresponding
changes to the SIP are required. Thus,
we find that the California SIP revision
to opt out of the federal program, as
approved in 1999, meets the
requirements of CAA sections
182(c)(4)(A) and 246 for the WMD for
the 2008 ozone standards.
4. Gasoline Vapor Recovery
Section 182(b)(3) of the CAA requires
states to submit a SIP revision by
November 15, 1992, that requires
owners or operators of gasoline
dispensing systems to install and
operate gasoline vehicle refueling vapor
recovery (‘‘Stage II’’) systems in ozone
nonattainment areas classified as
Moderate and above. California’s ozone
145 See
also CAA sections 182(e).
FR 12264 (March 6, 2015).
147 64 FR 46849 (August 27, 1999).
146 80
PO 00000
Frm 00078
Fmt 4702
Sfmt 4702
24827
nonattainment areas implemented Stage
II vapor recovery well before the passage
of the CAA Amendments of 1990.148
Section 202(a)(6) of the CAA requires
the EPA to promulgate standards
requiring motor vehicles to be equipped
with onboard refueling vapor recovery
(ORVR) systems. The EPA promulgated
the first set of ORVR system regulations
in 1994 for phased implementation on
vehicle manufacturers, and since the
end of 2006, essentially all new
gasoline-powered light- and mediumduty vehicles are ORVR-equipped.149
Section 202(a)(6) also authorizes the
EPA to waive the SIP requirement under
CAA section 182(b)(3) for installation of
Stage II vapor recovery systems after
such time as the EPA determines that
ORVR systems are in widespread use
throughout the motor vehicle fleet.
Effective May 16, 2012, the EPA waived
the requirement of CAA section
182(b)(3) for Stage II vapor recovery
systems in ozone nonattainment areas
regardless of classification.150 Thus, a
SIP submittal meeting CAA section
182(b)(3) is not required for the 2008
ozone NAAQS.
While a SIP submittal meeting CAA
section 182(b)(3) is not required for the
2008 ozone NAAQS, under California
state law (i.e., Health and Safety Code
section 41954), CARB is required to
adopt procedures and performance
standards for controlling gasoline
emissions from gasoline marketing
operations, including transfer and
storage operations. State law also
authorizes CARB, in cooperation with
local air districts, to certify vapor
recovery systems, to identify defective
equipment and to develop test methods.
CARB has adopted numerous revisions
to its vapor recovery program
regulations and continues to rely on its
vapor recovery program to achieve
emissions reductions in ozone
nonattainment areas in California.
In the WMD, the installation and
operation of CARB-certified vapor
recovery equipment is required and
enforced through AVAQMD Rule 461,
‘‘Gasoline Transfer and Dispensing,’’
approved into the SIP on October 21,
2008, and MDAQMD Rule 461,
‘‘Gasoline Transfer and Dispensing,’’
approved into the SIP on May 1,
2020.151
5. Enhanced Ambient Air Monitoring
Section 182(c)(1) of the CAA requires
that all ozone nonattainment areas
148 General Preamble, 57 FR 13498 at 13514
(April 16, 1992).
149 77 FR 28772, at 28774 (May 16, 2012).
150 40 CFR 51.126(b).
151 76 FR 5277 (January 31, 2011) and 85 FR
25293 (May 1, 2020).
E:\FR\FM\10MYP1.SGM
10MYP1
24828
Federal Register / Vol. 86, No. 88 / Monday, May 10, 2021 / Proposed Rules
classified as Serious or above
implement measures to enhance and
improve monitoring for ambient
concentrations of ozone, NOX, and VOC,
and to improve monitoring of emissions
of NOX and VOC. The enhanced
monitoring network for ozone is referred
to as the photochemical assessment
monitoring station (PAMS) network.
The EPA promulgated final PAMS
regulations on February 12, 1993.152
On November 10, 1993, CARB
submitted to the EPA a SIP revision
addressing the PAMS network for six
ozone nonattainment areas in California,
including the WMD, to meet the
enhanced monitoring requirements of
CAA section 182(c)(1). The EPA
determined that the PAMS SIP revision
met all applicable requirements for
enhanced monitoring and the EPA
PAMS regulations and approved the
PAMS submittal into the California
SIP.153
Prior to 2006, the EPA’s ambient air
monitoring regulations in 40 CFR part
58, ‘‘Ambient Air Quality Surveillance,’’
set forth specific SIP requirements (see
former 40 CFR 52.20). In 2006, the EPA
significantly revised and reorganized 40
CFR part 58.154 Under revised 40 CFR
part 58, SIP revisions are no longer
required; rather, compliance with EPA
monitoring regulations is established
through review of required annual
monitoring network plans.155 The 2008
Ozone SRR made no changes to these
requirements.156
The 2016 WMD Attainment Plan does
not specifically address the enhanced
ambient air monitoring requirement in
CAA section 182(c)(1). However, we
note that CARB includes the ambient
monitoring network within the WMD in
its annual monitoring network plan that
is submitted to the EPA, and that we
have approved the most recent annual
monitoring network plan (‘‘Annual
Network Plan Covering Monitoring
Operations in 25 California Air Districts,
July 2020’’ or ‘‘2018 ANP’’), which
includes the enhanced ambient air
khammond on DSKJM1Z7X2PROD with PROPOSALS
152 58
FR 8452 (February 12, 1993).
153 82 FR 45191 (September 28, 2017). This action
addressed 1-hour ozone nonattainment areas. The
area identified as Southeast Desert Modified Air
Quality Management Area for the 1-hour ozone
NAAQS has been split into two separate
nonattainment areas for the 1997 and 2008 ozone
NAAQS, the WMD and Riverside County (Coachella
Valley).
154 71 FR 61236 (October 17, 2006).
155 40 CFR 58.2(b) now provides that, ‘‘The
requirements pertaining to provisions for an air
quality surveillance system in the SIP are contained
in this part.’’
156 The 2008 ozone SRR addresses PAMS-related
requirements at 80 FR 12264, 12291 (March 6,
2015).
VerDate Sep<11>2014
16:59 May 07, 2021
Jkt 253001
monitoring element for the WMD.157
Based on our review and approval of the
2020 ANP with respect to the WMD and
our earlier approval of the PAMS SIP
revision, we propose to find that CARB,
AVAQMD and MDAQMD meet the
enhanced monitoring requirements
under CAA section 182(c)(1) for the
WMD with respect to the 2008 ozone
NAAQS.
6. CAA Section 185 Fee Program
Section 185 of the CAA requires that
the SIP for each Severe and Extreme
ozone nonattainment area provide that,
if the area fails to attain by its applicable
attainment date, each major stationary
source of VOC and NOX located in the
area shall pay a fee to the state as a
penalty for such failure for each
calendar year beginning after the
attainment date, until the area is
redesignated as an attainment area for
ozone. States are not yet required to
submit a SIP revision that meets the
requirements of CAA section 185 for the
2008 ozone NAAQS.158
IV. Proposed Action
For the reasons discussed in this
notice, under CAA section 110(k)(3), the
EPA is proposing to approve as a
revision to the California SIP the
following portions of the 2016 WMD
Attainment Plan for the 2008 ozone
NAAQS, submitted by CARB on June 2,
2017, and the 2018 SIP Update,
submitted on December 11, 2018:
• Base year emissions inventory
element in the 2016 WMD Attainment
Plan as meeting the requirements of
CAA sections 172(c)(3) and 182(a)(1)
and 40 CFR 51.1115;
• Emissions statement element in the
2016 WMD Attainment Plan as meeting
the requirements of CAA section
182(a)(3)(B) and 40 CFR 51.1102;
• RACM demonstration element in
the 2016 WMD Attainment Plan, as
meeting the requirements of CAA
section 172(c)(1) and 40 CFR 51.1112(c);
• Attainment demonstration element
in the 2016 WMD Attainment Plan as
meeting the requirements of CAA
section 182(c)(2)(A) and 40 CFR
51.1108;
• RFP demonstration element in the
2018 SIP Update as meeting the
requirements of CAA sections 172(c)(2),
182(b)(1), and 182(c)(2)(B), and 40 CFR
51.1110(a)(2)(ii);
157 The EPA approved the 2020 ANP in a letter
dated November 5, 2020, from Gwen Yoshimura,
Manager, Air Quality Analysis Office, EPA Region
IX, to Ravi Ramalingam, Chief, Consumer Products
and Air Quality Assessment Branch, Air Quality
Planning and Science Division, CARB.
158 See 40 CFR 51.1117. For the WMD, a section
185 SIP revision for the 2008 ozone standards will
be due on July 20, 2022.
PO 00000
Frm 00079
Fmt 4702
Sfmt 4702
• VMT emissions offset
demonstration element in the 2016
WMD Attainment Plan as meeting the
requirements of CAA section
182(d)(1)(A) and 40 CFR 51.1102; and
• Motor vehicle emissions budgets in
the 2018 SIP Update for the 2023 RFP
milestone year and the 2026 attainment
year (see Table 4 of this notice) because
they are consistent with the RFP and
attainment demonstrations proposed for
approval herein and meet the other
criteria in 40 CFR 93.118(e).
We are also proposing to find that the:
• California SIP revision to opt out of
the federal Clean Fuels Fleet Program
meets the requirements of CAA sections
182(c)(4)(A) and 246 and 40 CFR
51.1102 with respect to the WMD;
• Enhanced monitoring in the WMD
meets the requirements of CAA section
182(c)(1) and 40 CFR 51.1102; and
• Enhanced vehicle inspection and
maintenance program element in the
WMD meets the requirements of CAA
section 182(c)(3) and 40 CFR 51.1102.
Lastly, we are proposing, under CAA
section 110(k)(4), to conditionally
approve the contingency measure
element of the 2016 WMD Attainment
Plan as meeting the requirements of
CAA sections 172(c)(9) and 182(c)(9) for
RFP contingency measures. Our
proposed approval is based on
commitments by the District and CARB
to supplement the element through
submission, as a SIP revision (within
one year of final conditional approval
action), a MDAQMD Board resolution
detailing the circumstances, timing, and
procedure for implementing enhanced
vehicle inspection and maintenance for
areas within WMD currently subject to
basic I/M, if an RFP milestone is not met
or the area fails to attain the 2008 ozone
NAAQS by the attainment date.
The EPA is soliciting public
comments on the issues discussed in
this document. We will accept
comments from the public on this
proposal for the next 30 days and will
consider comments before taking final
action.
V. Statutory and Executive Order
Reviews
Under the Clean Air Act, the
Administrator is required to approve a
SIP submission that complies with the
provisions of the Act and applicable
federal regulations. 42 U.S.C. 7410(k);
40 CFR 52.02(a). Thus, in reviewing SIP
submissions, the EPA’s role is to
approve state choices, provided that
they meet the criteria of the Clean Air
Act. Accordingly, this proposed action
merely proposes to approve state plans
as meeting federal requirements and
does not impose additional
E:\FR\FM\10MYP1.SGM
10MYP1
Federal Register / Vol. 86, No. 88 / Monday, May 10, 2021 / Proposed Rules
khammond on DSKJM1Z7X2PROD with PROPOSALS
requirements beyond those imposed by
state law. For that reason, this proposed
action:
• Is not a ‘‘significant regulatory
action’’ subject to review by the Office
of Management and Budget under
Executive Orders 12866 (58 FR 51735,
October 4, 1993) and 13563 (76 FR 3821,
January 21, 2011);
• Does not impose an information
collection burden under the provisions
of the Paperwork Reduction Act (44
U.S.C. 3501 et seq.);
• Is certified as not having a
significant economic impact on a
substantial number of small entities
under the Regulatory Flexibility Act (5
U.S.C. 601 et seq.);
• Does not contain any unfunded
mandate or significantly or uniquely
affect small governments, as described
in the Unfunded Mandates Reform Act
of 1995 (Pub. L. 104–4);
• Does not have federalism
implications as specified in Executive
Order 13132 (64 FR 43255, August 10,
1999);
• Is not an economically significant
regulatory action based on health or
safety risks subject to Executive Order
13045 (62 FR 19885, April 23, 1997);
• Is not a significant regulatory action
subject to Executive Order 13211 (66 FR
28355, May 22, 2001);
• Is not subject to requirements of
Section 12(d) of the National
Technology Transfer and Advancement
Act of 1995 (15 U.S.C. 272 note) because
application of those requirements would
be inconsistent with the Clean Air Act;
and
• Does not provide the EPA with the
discretionary authority to address
disproportionate human health or
environmental effects with practical,
appropriate, and legally permissible
methods under Executive Order 12898
(59 FR 7629, February 16, 1994).
In addition, the SIP is not approved
to apply on any Indian reservation land
or in any other area where the EPA or
an Indian tribe has demonstrated that a
tribe has jurisdiction. In those areas of
Indian country, the proposed rule does
not have tribal implications and will not
impose substantial direct costs on tribal
governments or preempt tribal law as
specified by Executive Order 13175 (65
FR 67249, November 9, 2000).
List of Subjects in 40 CFR Part 52
Environmental protection, Air
pollution control, Incorporation by
reference, Intergovernmental relations,
Nitrogen dioxide, Ozone, Reporting and
recordkeeping requirements, Volatile
organic compounds.
Authority: 42 U.S.C. 7401 et seq.
VerDate Sep<11>2014
16:59 May 07, 2021
Jkt 253001
Dated: May 4, 2021.
Deborah Jordan,
Acting Regional Administrator, Region IX.
[FR Doc. 2021–09842 Filed 5–7–21; 8:45 am]
BILLING CODE 6560–50–P
ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION
AGENCY
40 CFR Part 52
[EPA–R09–OAR–2021–0078; FRL–10022–
86–Region 9]
Finding of Failure To Attain the 2008
Lead and 2010 Sulfur Dioxide
Standards; Arizona; Hayden and Miami
Nonattainment Areas
Environmental Protection
Agency (EPA).
ACTION: Proposed rule.
AGENCY:
The Environmental Protection
Agency (EPA) is proposing to determine
that the Hayden lead (Pb) nonattainment
area (NAA) failed to attain the 2008 Pb
primary and secondary national ambient
air quality standards (NAAQS or
‘‘standards’’) by the applicable
attainment date of October 3, 2019. This
proposed determination is based upon
monitored air quality data from
November 2015–December 2018 for the
2008 Pb NAAQS. The EPA is also
proposing to determine that the Hayden
and Miami sulfur dioxide (SO2) NAAs
failed to attain the 2010 1-hour SO2
primary NAAQS by the applicable
attainment date of October 4, 2018,
based upon monitored air quality data
from January 2015–December 2017. If
the EPA finalizes these determinations
as proposed, the State of Arizona will be
required to submit revisions to the
Arizona State Implementation Plan (SIP)
that, among other elements, provide for
expeditious attainment of the 2008 Pb
and 2010 SO2 standards.
DATES: Any comments must arrive by
June 9, 2021.
ADDRESSES: Submit your comments,
identified by Docket ID No. EPA–R09–
OAR–2021–0078 at https://
www.regulations.gov. For comments
submitted at Regulations.gov, follow the
online instructions for submitting
comments. Once submitted, comments
cannot be edited or removed from
Regulations.gov. The EPA may publish
any comment received to its public
docket. Do not submit electronically any
information you consider to be
Confidential Business Information (CBI)
or other information whose disclosure is
restricted by statute. Multimedia
submissions (audio, video, etc.) must be
accompanied by a written comment.
The written comment is considered the
SUMMARY:
PO 00000
Frm 00080
Fmt 4702
Sfmt 4702
24829
official comment and should include
discussion of all points you wish to
make. The EPA will generally not
consider comments or comment
contents located outside of the primary
submission (i.e., on the web, cloud, or
other file sharing system). For
additional submission methods, please
contact the person identified in the FOR
FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT section.
For the full EPA public comment policy,
information about CBI or multimedia
submissions, and general guidance on
making effective comments, please visit
https://www.epa.gov/dockets/
commenting-epa-dockets. If you need
assistance in a language other than
English or if you are a person with
disabilities who needs a reasonable
accommodation at no cost to you, please
contact the person identified in the FOR
FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT section.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Ben
Leers, Air Planning Office (AIR–2), EPA
Region IX, (415) 947–4279,
Leers.Benjamin@epa.gov.
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION:
Throughout this document, ‘‘we,’’ ‘‘us,’’
and ‘‘our’’ refer to the EPA.
Table of Contents
I. Background
A. The 2008 Pb and 2010 SO2 National
Ambient Air Quality Standards
B. Designations, Classifications, and
Attainment Dates for the 2008 Pb and
2010 SO2 National Ambient Air Quality
Standards
II. Proposed Determinations and
Consequences
A. Applicable Statutory and Regulatory
Provisions
B. Monitoring Network Considerations
C. Data Considerations and Proposed
Determination
D. Consequences for Pb and SO2
Nonattainment Areas Failing To Attain
Standards by Attainment Dates
III. Proposed Action and Request for Public
Comment
IV. Statutory and Executive Order Reviews
I. Background
A. The 2008 Pb and 2010 SO2 National
Ambient Air Quality Standards
Under section 109 of the Clean Air
Act (CAA or ‘‘Act’’), the EPA has
established primary and secondary
NAAQS for certain pervasive air
pollutants (referred to as ‘‘criteria
pollutants’’) and conducts periodic
reviews of the NAAQS to determine
whether they should be revised or
whether new NAAQS should be
established. The primary NAAQS
represent ambient air quality standards
the attainment and maintenance of
which the EPA has determined,
including a margin of safety, are
requisite to protect the public health.
E:\FR\FM\10MYP1.SGM
10MYP1
]]>Agencies
[Federal Register Volume 86, Number 88 (Monday, May 10, 2021)]
[Proposed Rules]
[Pages 24809-24829]
From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office [www.gpo.gov]
[FR Doc No: 2021-09842]
=======================================================================
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
40 CFR Part 52
[EPA-R09-OAR-2020-0254; FRL-10023-52-Region 9]
Clean Air Plans; 2008 8-Hour Ozone Nonattainment Area
Requirements; West Mojave Desert, California
AGENCY: Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).
ACTION: Proposed rule.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
SUMMARY: The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is proposing to
approve, or conditionally approve, all or portions of the state
implementation plan (SIP) revision submitted by the State of California
to meet Clean Air Act requirements for the 2008 8-hour ozone national
ambient air quality standards (NAAQS or ``standards'') in the West
Mojave Desert ozone nonattainment area. The SIP revision addresses the
nonattainment area requirements for the
[[Page 24810]]
2008 8-hour ozone NAAQS, including the requirements for an emissions
inventory, emissions statements, attainment demonstration, reasonable
further progress, reasonably available control measures, contingency
measures, and motor vehicle emissions budgets. The EPA is proposing to
approve the SIP revision as meeting all the applicable ozone
nonattainment area requirements, except for contingency measures, for
which we are proposing conditional approval.
DATES: Written comments must arrive on or before June 9, 2021.
ADDRESSES: Submit your comments, identified by Docket ID No. EPA-R09-
OAR-2020-0254 at https://www.regulations.gov. For comments submitted at
Regulations.gov, follow the online instructions for submitting
comments. Once submitted, comments cannot be edited or removed from
Regulations.gov. The EPA may publish any comment received to its public
docket. Do not submit electronically any information you consider to be
Confidential Business Information (CBI) or other information whose
disclosure is restricted by statute. Multimedia submissions (audio,
video, etc.) must be accompanied by a written comment. The written
comment is considered the official comment and should include
discussion of all points you wish to make. The EPA will generally not
consider comments or comment contents located outside of the primary
submission (i.e., on the web, cloud, or other file sharing system). For
additional submission methods, please contact the person identified in
the FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT section. For the full EPA public
comment policy, information about CBI or multimedia submissions, and
general guidance on making effective comments, please visit https://www.epa.gov/dockets/commenting-epa-dockets. If you need assistance in a
language other than English or if you are a person with disabilities
who needs a reasonable accommodation at no cost to you, please contact
the person identified in the FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT section.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Tom Kelly, EPA Region IX, (415) 972-
3856, [email protected].
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Throughout this document, ``we,'' ``us,''
and ``our'' refer to the EPA.
Table of Contents
I. Regulatory Context
A. Ozone Standards, Area Designations, and SIPs
B. The West Mojave Desert Ozone Nonattainment Area
C. CAA and Regulatory Requirements for 2008 Ozone Nonattainment
Area SIPs
II. Submissions From the State of California To Address 2008 Ozone
Standards Requirements in the West Mojave Desert
A. Summary of Submissions
B. Clean Air Act Procedural Requirements for Adoption and
Submission of SIP Revisions
III. Evaluation of the 2016 WMD Attainment Plan and the 2018 SIP
Update
A. Emissions Inventories
B. Emissions Statements
C. Reasonably Available Control Measures Demonstration
D. Attainment Demonstration
E. Rate of Progress Plan and Reasonable Further Progress
Demonstration
F. Transportation Control Strategies and Measures To Offset
Emissions Increases From Vehicle Miles Traveled
G. Contingency Measures
H. Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets for Transportation Conformity
I. Other Clean Air Act Requirements Applicable to Severe Ozone
Nonattainment Areas
IV. Proposed Action
V. Statutory and Executive Order Reviews
I. Regulatory Context
A. Ozone Standards, Area Designations, and SIPs
Ground-level ozone pollution is formed from the reaction of
volatile organic compounds (VOC) and oxides of nitrogen
(NOX) in the presence of sunlight.\1\ These two pollutants,
referred to as ozone precursors, are emitted by many types of sources,
including on-and off-road motor vehicles and engines, power plants and
industrial facilities, and smaller area sources such as lawn and garden
equipment and paints.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\1\ The State of California typically refers to reactive organic
gases (ROG) in its ozone-related submissions since VOC in general
can include both reactive and unreactive gases. However, since ROG
and VOC inventories pertain to common chemical species (e.g.,
benzene, xylene, etc.), we refer to this set of gases as VOC in this
proposed rule.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Scientific evidence indicates that adverse public health effects
occur following exposure to ozone, particularly in children and adults
with lung disease. Breathing air containing ozone can reduce lung
function and inflame airways, which can increase respiratory symptoms
and aggravate asthma or other lung diseases.\2\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\2\ See ``Fact Sheet--2008 Final Revisions to the National
Ambient Air Quality Standards for Ozone'' dated March 2008.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Under section 109 of the Clean Air Act (CAA or ``Act''), the EPA
promulgates NAAQS for pervasive air pollutants, such as ozone. The EPA
has previously promulgated NAAQS for ozone in 1979 and 1997.\3\ In
2008, the EPA revised and further strengthened the ozone NAAQS by
setting the acceptable level of ozone in the ambient air at 0.075 parts
per million (ppm) averaged over an 8-hour period.\4\ Although the EPA
further tightened the 8-hour ozone NAAQS to 0.070 ppm in 2015, this
action relates to the requirements for the 2008 ozone NAAQS.\5\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\3\ The ozone NAAQS promulgated in 1979 was 0.12 parts per
million (ppm) averaged over a 1-hour period. See 44 FR 8202
(February 8, 1979). The ozone NAAQS promulgated in 1997 was 0.08 ppm
averaged over an 8-hour period. See 62 FR 38856 (July 18, 1997).
\4\ 73 FR 16436 (March 27, 2008).
\5\ Information on the 2015 ozone NAAQS is available at 80 FR
65292 (October 26, 2015).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Following promulgation of a new or revised NAAQS, the EPA is
required under CAA section 107(d) to designate areas throughout the
country as attaining or not attaining the NAAQS. The ``Los Angeles-San
Bernardino Counties (West Mojave Desert), CA'' area (``West Mojave
Desert'' or WMD) was designated as nonattainment for the 2008 ozone
standards on May 21, 2012 and classified as ``Severe-15.'' \6\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\6\ 77 FR 30088 (May 21, 2012).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Under the CAA, after the EPA designates areas as nonattainment for
a NAAQS, states with nonattainment areas are required to submit SIP
revisions that provide for, among other things, attainment of the NAAQS
within certain prescribed periods that vary depending on the severity
of nonattainment. Areas classified as Severe-15 must attain the NAAQS
within 15 years of the effective date of the nonattainment
designation.\7\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\7\ CAA section 181(a)(1), 40 CFR 51.1102 and 51.1103(a).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
In California, the California Air Resources Board (CARB) is the
agency responsible for the adoption and submission to the EPA of
California SIPs and SIP revisions, and it has broad authority to
establish emissions standards and other requirements for mobile
sources. Local and regional air pollution control districts in
California are responsible for the regulation of stationary sources and
are generally responsible for the development of regional air quality
plans. In the West Mojave Desert, two agencies develop and adopt air
quality management plans to address CAA planning requirements
applicable to that region, the Antelope Valley Air Quality Management
District (AVAQMD) and the Mojave Desert Air Quality Management District
(MDAQMD) (collectively, ``Districts''). Such plans are then submitted
to CARB for adoption and submittal to the EPA as revisions to the
California SIP.
[[Page 24811]]
B. The West Mojave Desert Ozone Nonattainment Area
The West Mojave Desert is located in northeast Los Angeles County
and southwest San Bernardino County. For a precise description of the
geographic boundaries of the area, see 40 CFR 81.305. The Los Angeles
County portion of the WMD area is under the jurisdiction of the AVAQMD,
and the San Bernardino County portion of the area is under the
jurisdiction of the MDAQMD.
The population of the West Mojave Desert is approximately
868,380.\8\ Ambient 8-hour ozone concentrations in the WMD are above
the level of the 2008 8-hour ozone NAAQS. The area's maximum design
value for the 2017-2019 period, based on certified data at the Phalen
monitor (Air Quality System ID: 06-071-0012), is 0.096 ppm.\9\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\8\ 8-Hour Ozone (2008) Designated Area/State Information, Green
Book, EPA, accessed on November 19, 2020, Population Data from 2010,
https://www3.epa.gov/airquality/greenbook/hbtc.html.
\9\ Air Quality System (AQS) Design Value Report,
O3_designvalues_2017_2019_final_5_26_20.pdf, in the docket for this
proposed action. The AQS is a database containing ambient air
pollution data collected by the EPA and state, local, and tribal air
pollution control agencies from over thousands of monitors. Design
values, defined to be consistent with the individual NAAQS as
described in 40 CFR part 50, are typically used to designate and
classify nonattainment areas, as well as to assess progress towards
meeting the NAAQS.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
The West Mojave Desert receives significant transport of ozone and
ozone precursors from the South Coast Air Basin, and to a lesser
extent, the San Joaquin Valley. To attain the 2008 ozone NAAQS, the WMD
will depend on continued emissions reductions in those areas.\10\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\10\ See CARB, Staff Report, ``CARB Review of the Mojave Desert
AQMD and Antelope Valley AQMD Federal 75 ppb Ozone Attainment Plans
for the Western Mojave Desert Nonattainment Area,'' April 21, 2017
(``CARB Staff Report''), Appendix B, ``Weight of Evidence
Analysis,'' B-28.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
C. CAA and Regulatory Requirements for 2008 8-Hour Ozone Nonattainment
Area SIPs
States must implement the 2008 ozone standards under title I, part
D of the CAA, which includes sections 171-179B of subpart 1,
``Nonattainment Areas in General,'' and sections 181-185 of subpart 2,
``Additional Provisions for Ozone Nonattainment Areas.'' To assist
states in developing effective plans to address ozone nonattainment
problems, in 2015 the EPA issued a SIP Requirements Rule (SRR) for the
2008 ozone standards (``2008 Ozone SRR'') that addresses requirements
for nonattainment areas, such as attainment dates, emissions
inventories, attainment and reasonable further progress (RFP)
demonstrations, and the transition from the 1997 8-hour ozone standards
to the 2008 8-hour ozone standards and associated anti-backsliding
requirements.\11\ The 2008 Ozone SRR is codified at 40 CFR part 51,
subpart AA. We discuss each of the CAA statutory and regulatory
requirements for 2008 8-hour ozone plans in more detail in Section III
of this document.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\11\ 80 FR 12264 (March 6, 2015).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
The EPA's 2008 Ozone SRR was challenged, and on February 16, 2018,
the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit (``D.C. Circuit'')
published its decision in South Coast Air Quality Management District
v. EPA (``South Coast II'') \12\ vacating portions of the 2008 Ozone
SRR. The only aspect of the South Coast II decision that affects this
proposed action is the vacatur of the alternative baseline year for RFP
plans. More specifically, the 2008 Ozone SRR required states to develop
the baseline emissions inventory for RFP plans using the emissions
inventory for the most recent calendar year for which states submit a
triennial inventory to the EPA under subpart A of 40 CFR part 51, ``Air
Emissions Reporting Requirements,'' which was 2011. The 2008 Ozone SRR,
however, allowed states to use an alternative year, between 2008 and
2012, for the baseline emissions inventory, provided the state
demonstrated why the alternative baseline year was appropriate. In the
South Coast II decision, the D.C. Circuit vacated the provisions of the
2008 Ozone SRR that allowed states to use an alternative baseline year
for demonstrating RFP.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\12\ South Coast Air Quality Management District v. EPA, 882
F.3d 1138 (D.C. Cir. 2018). The term ``South Coast II'' is used in
reference to the 2018 court decision to distinguish it from a
decision published in 2006 also referred to as ``South Coast.'' The
earlier decision involved a challenge to the EPA's Phase 1
implementation rule for the 1997 ozone NAAQS. South Coast Air
Quality Management Dist. v. EPA, 472 F.3d 882 (D.C. Cir. 2006).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
II. Submissions From the State of California To Address 2008 Ozone
Standards Requirements in the West Mojave Desert
A. Summary of Submissions
1. 2016 WMD Attainment Plan
On June 2, 2017, CARB submitted a SIP revision to address the WMD's
planning obligations as a Severe-15 nonattainment area for the 2008
ozone NAAQS.\13\ The June 2, 2017 submittal includes attainment plans
prepared by the AVAQMD (``AVAQMD Attainment Plan'') \14\ and the MDAQMD
(``MDAQMD Attainment Plan''),\15\ an accompanying staff report prepared
by CARB (``CARB Staff Report''),\16\ and other supporting documents. We
refer to the AVAQMD Attainment Plan and the MDAQMD Attainment Plan
collectively as the Districts' ``Attainment Plans,'' and we refer to
all the documents submitted to the EPA on June 2, 2017 as the ``2016
WMD Attainment Plan.'' The 2016 WMD Attainment Plan addresses the
requirements for base year and projected future year emissions
inventories, air quality modeling demonstrating attainment of the 2008
ozone NAAQS by the applicable attainment year, provisions demonstrating
implementation of reasonably available control measures (RACM),
provisions for transportation control strategies and measures, a
demonstration of RFP, and contingency measures for failure to make RFP
or to attain, among other requirements.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\13\ Letter dated June 2, 2017, from Richard Corey, CARB, to
Alexis Strauss, EPA Region IX.
\14\ AVAQMD, ``AVAQMD Federal 75 ppb Ozone Attainment Plan
(Western Mojave Desert Nonattainment Area),'' adopted on March 21,
2017.
\15\ MDAQMD, ``MDAQMD Federal 75 ppb Ozone Attainment Plan
(Western Mojave Desert Nonattainment Area),'' adopted on February
27, 2017.
\16\ CARB, Staff Report, ``CARB Review of the Mojave Desert AQMD
and Antelope Valley AQMD Federal 75 ppb Ozone Attainment Plans for
the Western Mojave Desert Nonattainment Area,'' released April 21,
2017.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
2. CARB's 2018 Updates to the California State Implementation Plan
On December 11, 2018, CARB submitted the ``2018 Updates to the
California State Implementation Plan'' (``2018 SIP Update'') to the EPA
as a revision to the California SIP.\17\ CARB adopted the 2018 SIP
Update on October 25, 2018. CARB developed the 2018 SIP Update in
response to the court's decision in South Coast II vacating the 2008
Ozone SRR with respect to the use of an alternate baseline year for
demonstrating RFP, and to address contingency measure requirements in
the wake of the court decision in Bahr v. EPA.\18\ The 2018 SIP Update
includes updates for 8 different California ozone nonattainment areas.
We have previously approved portions of the 2018 SIP Update related to
other
[[Page 24812]]
nonattainment areas.\19\ For the West Mojave Desert, the 2018 SIP
Update includes an RFP demonstration using the required 2011 baseline
year and revised motor vehicle emission budgets for the 2008 ozone
NAAQS.\20\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\17\ Letter dated December 5, 2018, from Richard Corey, CARB, to
Mike Stoker, EPA Region IX.
\18\ Bahr v. EPA, 836 F.3d 1218 (9th Cir. 2016). In this case,
the court rejected the EPA's longstanding interpretation of CAA
section 172(c)(9) as allowing for early implementation of
contingency measures. The court concluded that a contingency measure
must take effect at the time the area fails to make RFP or attain by
the applicable attainment date, not before. See also Sierra Club v.
EPA, 985 F.3d 1055 (D.C. Cir. 2021), reaching a similar decision.
These cases are addressed below in Section III.G of this document.
\19\ See, e.g., 84 FR 11198 (March 25, 2019) (final approval of
the San Joaquin Valley portion of the 2018 SIP Update) and 84 FR
52005 (October 1, 2019) (final approval of the South Coast portion
of the 2018 SIP Update).
\20\ CARB withdrew the 2016 WMD Attainment Plan RFP
demonstration in a letter dated December 18, 2019, from Richard
Corey, CARB, to Michael Stoker, EPA Region IX.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
B. Clean Air Act Procedural Requirements for Adoption and Submission of
SIP Revisions
1. Requirements
CAA sections 110(a)(1) and (2) and 110(l) require a state to
provide reasonable public notice and opportunity for public hearing
prior to the adoption and submission of a SIP or SIP revision. To meet
this requirement, every SIP submittal should include evidence that
adequate public notice was given and an opportunity for a public
hearing was provided consistent with the EPA's implementing regulations
in 40 CFR 51.102.
2. Summary of the State's Documentation
a. 2016 WMD Attainment Plan
On February 17, 2017, the AVAQMD published notice in a local
newspaper of a public hearing to be held on March 21, 2017, for
adoption of the AVAQMD Attainment Plan.\21\ The District held the
public hearing on March 21, 2017,\22\ and signed a Board resolution
adopting the plan that same day.\23\ The District sent the plan to CARB
on April 18, 2017.\24\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\21\ Appendix B of Final Staff Report, Adoption of AVAQMD
Attainment Plan.
\22\ Minutes of the Governing Board of the Antelope Valley Air
Quality Management District, Lancaster, California, March 21, 2017.
\23\ Resolution 17-01, March 21, 2017.
\24\ Letter dated April 18, 2017, from Alan J. De Salvio,
AVAQMD, to Richard Corey, CARB.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
On January 27, 2017, the MDAQMD published notice in a local
newspaper of a public hearing to be held on February 27, 2017, for
adoption of the MDAQMD Attainment Plan.\25\ The District held the
public hearing on February 27, 2017,\26\ and signed a Board resolution
adopting the plan the same day.\27\ The District sent the plan to CARB
on April 3, 2017.\28\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\25\ Appendix B of Final Staff Report, MDAQMD Attainment Plan.
\26\ Minutes of the Governing Board of the Mojave Desert Air
Quality Management District, Victorville, California, February 27,
2017.
\27\ Resolution 17-05, dated February 27, 2017.
\28\ Letter dated April 3, 2017, from Alan J. De Salvio, MDAQMD,
to Richard Corey, CARB.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
On April 20, 2017, CARB provided notice of a public comment period
and public hearing to be held on May 25, 2017, for the 2016 WMD
Attainment Plan.\29\ CARB adopted the 2016 WMD Attainment Plan by
resolution at the May 25, 2017 hearing,\30\ and submitted it to the EPA
on June 2, 2017.\31\ The EPA notified CARB the submittal was complete
on November 22, 2017.\32\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\29\ Notice of Public Meeting to Consider the 2016 Ozone State
Implementation Plan for the Western Mojave Desert Nonattainment
Area, California Air Resources Board, April 20, 2017.
\30\ Board Resolution 17-12, May 25, 2017.
\31\ Letter dated June 2, 2017, from Richard Corey, CARB, to
Alexis Strauss, EPA Region IX.
\32\ Letter dated November 22, 2017, from Matt Lakin, EPA Region
IX, to Richard Corey, CARB.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
b. 2018 SIP Update
On September 21, 2018, CARB provided notice of a public comment
period and public hearing to be held on October 25, 2018, for the 2018
SIP Update.\33\ CARB adopted the 2018 SIP Update by resolution at the
October 25, 2018 hearing,\34\ and submitted it the to the EPA in a
letter dated December 5, 2018, which was electronically transmitted to
the EPA's State Planning Electronic Collaboration System on December
11, 2018.\35\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\33\ Notice of Public Meeting to Consider the 2018 Updates to
the California State Implementation Plan, September 21, 2018.
\34\ Board Resolution 18-50, October 25, 2018.
\35\ Letter dated December 5, 2018, from Richard Corey, CARB, to
Mike Stoker, EPA Region IX.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
c. The EPA's Conclusions on the Submission Requirements for the WMD
2016 Attainment Plan
CARB has satisfied the applicable statutory and regulatory
requirements for reasonable public notice and hearing prior to the
adoption and submittal of the elements of the 2016 WMD Attainment Plan.
Based on information provided in each SIP revision and summarized
above, the EPA has determined that all hearings were properly noticed.
Therefore, we find that the submittals of the 2016 WMD Attainment Plan
meet the procedural requirements for public notice and hearing in CAA
sections 110(a) and 110(l) and 40 CFR 51.102.
III. Evaluation of the 2016 WMD Attainment Plan and 2018 SIP Update
A. Emission Inventories
1. Statutory and Regulatory Requirements
Sections 172(c)(3) and 182(a)(1) of the CAA require states to
submit for each ozone nonattainment area a ``base year inventory'' that
is a comprehensive, accurate, current inventory of actual emissions
from all sources of the relevant pollutant or pollutants in the area.
In addition, the 2008 Ozone SRR requires that the inventory year be
selected consistent with the baseline year for the RFP demonstration,
which is usually the most recent calendar year for which a complete
triennial inventory is required to be submitted to the EPA under the
Air Emissions Reporting Requirements.\36\ The EPA has issued guidance
on the development of base year and future year emissions inventories
for 8-hour ozone and other pollutants.\37\ Emissions inventories for
ozone must include emissions of VOC and NOX and represent
emissions for a typical ozone season weekday.\38\ States should include
documentation explaining how the emissions data were calculated. In
estimating mobile source emissions, states should use the latest
emissions models and planning assumptions available at the time the SIP
is developed.\39\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\36\ 2008 Ozone SRR at 40 CFR 51.1115(a) and the Air Emissions
Reporting Requirements at 40 CFR part 51 subpart A.
\37\ ``Emissions Inventory Guidance for Implementation of Ozone
and Particulate Matter National Ambient Air Quality Standards
(NAAQS) and Regional Haze Regulations,'' EPA-454/B-17-002, May 2017.
At the time the 2016 WMD Attainment Plan was developed, the
following EPA emissions inventory guidance applied: ``Emissions
Inventory Guidance for Implementation of Ozone and Particulate
Matter National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) and Regional
Haze Regulations,'' EPA-454/R-05-001, August 2005.
\38\ 40 CFR 51.1115(a) and (c), and 40 CFR 51.1100(bb) and (cc).
\39\ 80 FR 12264, 12290 (March 6, 2015).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Future year baseline emissions inventories must reflect the most
recent population, employment, travel, and congestion estimates for the
area. In this context, ``baseline'' emissions inventories refer to
emissions estimates for a given year and area that reflect rules and
regulations and other measures that are already adopted. Future year
baseline emissions inventories are necessary to show the projected
effectiveness of SIP control measures. Both the base year and future
year inventories are necessary for photochemical modeling to
demonstrate attainment.
2. Summary of State's Submission
The 2016 WMD Attainment Plan includes base year (2012) and future
year baseline inventories for NOX and VOC for the West
Mojave Desert.\40\
[[Page 24813]]
Documentation for the inventories is found in Appendix A-2 of the CARB
Staff Report.\41\ The emissions inventories represent average summer
day emissions, consistent with the observation that ozone levels in
West Mojave Desert are typically higher from May through October.\42\
For stationary and area sources, the 2012 base year and future year
inventories considered several of the Districts' rules, specifically
including MDAQMD Rule 1461, ``Portland Cement Kilns'' (covering mineral
processing), and rules from both Districts based on CARB's rules for
consumer products, aerosol coatings,\43\ and architectural
coatings.\44\ The inventory also specifically notes the incorporation
of CARB's performance standards for gasoline dispensing hose
permeation,\45\ and revised vehicle refueling emission factors.\46\
These District and CARB rules are noted in Table 5, ``Stationary Source
Control Rules and Regulations Included in the Inventory,'' of Appendix
A-1 of the CARB Staff Report. The mobile source portions of both base
year and projected future year inventories were developed using
California's EPA-approved mobile source emissions model, EMFAC2014, for
estimating on-road motor vehicle emissions.\47\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\40\ The 2012 base year and future year baseline emissions
inventories in the CARB Staff Report exclude non-anthropogenic
``natural sources'' emissions such as biogenics and geogenics.
However, emissions from such natural sources are included in the
emissions inventories used for the attainment demonstration because
they affect ozone formation.
\41\ The 2012 base year emissions inventory included in the CARB
Staff Report supersedes and replaces a previous submittal of the
2012 base year emissions inventory for the West Mojave Desert in the
``8-Hour Ozone State Implementation Plan Emission Inventory
Submittal'' (the ``Multi-Area Emission Inventory''). The Multi-Area
Emission Inventory was submitted by CARB on July 17, 2014 and later
withdrawn on December 18, 2019. The Multi-Area Inventory included
2012 base year emissions inventories for 16 nonattainment areas,
including the West Mojave Desert. Relative to the corresponding
inventory for the West Mojave Desert in the Multi-Area Emission
Inventory, the 2012 base year emissions inventory in the 2016 WMD
Attainment Plan reflects updated stationary, area, and nonroad
source calculations as well as an updated version of the EMFAC model
for on-road motor vehicle estimates.
\42\ Appendix A-2 of the CARB Staff Report. In contrast, the
emissions inventory and projections in Appendix A and B of the
Districts' Attainment Plans contain average daily emissions, not
average summer day emissions.
\43\ See California Code of Regulations 94522, ``Limits and
Requirements for Aerosol Coating Products,'' incorporated into the
SIP on November 4, 2009 (74 FR 57074).
\44\ As stated on the CARB website (https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/our-work/programs/coatings/architectural-coatings/scm-district-rulemaking-schedule, accessed on August 25, 2020), AVAQMD Rule 1113,
adopted locally on June 18, 2013 and MDAQMD Rule 1113, adopted
locally on April 23, 2012, implement California's 2007 suggested
control measures for architectural coatings. These rules were
incorporated into the SIP on December 8, 2015 (80 FR 76222) and
December 8, 2015 (80 FR 76222), respectively.
\45\ See https://ww3.arb.ca.gov/vapor/gdf-emisfactor/attachment5.pdf.
\46\ See https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/gasoline-dispensing-facility-emission-factors.
\47\ EMFAC is short for EMission FACtor.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
The 2016 WMD Attainment Plan includes emissions inventories for
stationary sources, area sources, and on-road and off-road mobile
sources.\48\ Stationary sources refer to larger ``point'' sources that
have a fixed geographic location. The 2018 SIP Update explains that
2012 ``stationary source emissions reflect actual emissions reported
from industrial point sources'' and include stationary aggregate
sources, such as gasoline dispensing facilities.\49\ AVAQMD Rule 107,
``Certification of Submissions and Emission Statements,'' and MDAQMD
Rule 107, ``Certification and Emission Statements,'' require all
stationary sources within the nonattainment area that emit more than 25
tons per year (tpy) or more of VOC or NOX to report and
certify annual emissions. For the 2012 base year, CARB developed a list
of stationary sources in Los Angeles and San Bernardino counties and
their associated emissions. AVAQMD and MDAQMD separated the stationary
sources within the WMD from those within their respective counties but
outside the WMD.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\48\ CARB Staff Report, Appendix A-2.
\49\ 2018 SIP Update, Appendix A, A-1.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Area sources include smaller emissions sources distributed across
the nonattainment area, such as consumer products, architectural
coatings, pesticides and herbicides, farming operations, and cooking.
CARB and the District estimate emissions for area sources using surveys
and information from other state and federal agencies. These estimates
are updated with relevant factors such as population changes,
demographic factors, and agency specific growth factors (e.g., for
farming operations and use of herbicides and pesticides).\50\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\50\ CARB Staff Report, see the discussion of areawide sources
beginning on page A1-8.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
On-road emissions inventories in the CARB Staff Report are
calculated using CARB's EMFAC2014 model \51\ and the travel activity
data provided by the area's metropolitan planning organization, the
Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG), in the ``2016-
2040 Regional Transportation Plan/Sustainable Communities Strategy.''
\52\ CARB consulted with MDAQMD staff to estimate emissions from off-
road equipment and area sources occurring in the nonattainment area,
most often using human population as default surrogate for the quantity
of emissions occurring in the WMD.\53\ Future emissions forecasts are
primarily based on population and economic growth projections provided
by SCAG; growth estimates from government agencies such as the U.S.
Bureau of Labor Statistics, the U.S. Department of Agriculture, and
CARB; forecasts from the Districts; and research studies. The growth
factors for each emissions category are discussed in Appendix A-1 of
the CARB Staff Report.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\51\ In December 2015, the EPA approved EMFAC2014 for SIP
development and transportation conformity purposes in California. 80
FR 77337 (December 14, 2015). EMFAC2014 was the most recently
approved version of the EMFAC model that was available at the time
of preparation of the 2016 Attainment Plan. The EPA approved an
updated version of the EMFAC model, EMFAC2017, for future SIP
development and transportation purposes in California. 84 FR 41717
(August 15, 2019).
\52\ CARB Staff Report, Appendix A-1.
\53\ Id. at A1-3.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table 1 below provides a summary of the CARB Staff Report's 2012
base year and future attainment year VOC and NOX emissions
estimates within the West Mojave Desert (average summer day). These
inventories provide the basis for the control measure analysis and the
attainment demonstration in the 2016 WMD Attainment Plan. Based on the
inventory for 2012, stationary and area sources of VOC emissions are
roughly equivalent to the combined on-road and off-road mobile source
emissions. For NOX emissions in 2012, on-road mobile sources
contribute the highest fraction of emissions (37.11 tons per day (tpd)
or 37.5 percent) followed by off-road (32.53 tpd or 32.9 percent),
stationary (28.27 tpd or 28.6 percent), and area sources (1.05 tpd or
1.1 percent).
[[Page 24814]]
Table 1--West Mojave Desert Nonattainment Area Base Year and Attainment Year Emissions Inventory Summary
[Summer season average tpd]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NOX (2012) NOX (2026)
Category VOC (2012) VOC (2026)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Stationary Sources.............................. 28.27 42.08 13.16 17.35
Area Sources.................................... 1.05 0.92 11.32 12.15
On-road Mobile.................................. 37.11 9.84 15.21 5.98
Off-road Mobile................................. 32.53 25.53 7.09 4.99
---------------------------------------------------------------
Total....................................... 98.95 68.56 46.78 40.47
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: Appendix A-2, CARB Staff Report. Due to rounding, the totals may not agree to the hundredth of a tpd.
3. The EPA's Review of the State's Submission
We have reviewed the 2012 base year emissions inventory in the 2016
WMD Attainment Plan and the inventory methodologies used by CARB and
the District for consistency with CAA requirements and EPA guidance.
First, as required by EPA regulations, we find that the 2012 inventory
includes estimates for VOC and NOX for a typical ozone
season weekday, and that CARB has provided adequate documentation
explaining how the emissions are calculated. Second, we find that the
2012 base year emissions inventory in the 2016 WMD Attainment Plan
reflects appropriate emissions models and methodologies, and,
therefore, represents a comprehensive, accurate, and current inventory
of actual emissions during that year in the WMD. Third, we find that
selection of year 2012 for the base year emissions inventory is
appropriate because it is consistent with the 2011 RFP baseline year
(from the 2018 SIP Update) because both inventories are derived from a
common set of models and methods. Therefore, the EPA is proposing to
approve the 2012 emissions inventory in the 2016 WMD Attainment Plan as
meeting the requirements for a base year inventory set forth in CAA
section 182(a)(1) and 40 CFR 51.1115.
With respect to future year baseline projections, we have reviewed
the growth and control factors and find them acceptable, and conclude
that the future baseline emissions projections in the 2016 WMD
Attainment Plan reflect appropriate calculation methods and the latest
planning assumptions.
Furthermore, we note that the future year baseline projections
account for emissions reductions from control measures in adopted state
and local rules and regulations. As a general matter, the EPA will
approve a SIP revision that takes emissions reduction credit for such
control measures only where the EPA has approved the control measures
as part of the SIP. Tables 1 and 2 in the technical support document
(TSD) supporting this action document the approval of all rules within
the West Mojave Desert. Table 5 of the CARB Staff Report documents the
specific rules considered in the development of the emissions
inventory.
With respect to mobile sources, the EPA has taken action in recent
years to approve CARB mobile source regulations into the California
SIP.\54\ We therefore find that the future year baseline projections in
the 2016 WMD Attainment Plan are properly supported by SIP-approved
stationary and mobile source control measures.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\54\ See 81 FR 39424 (June 16, 2016), 82 FR 14446 (March 21,
2017), and 83 FR 23232 (May 18, 2018).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
B. Emissions Statements
1. Statutory and Regulatory Requirements
Section 182(a)(3)(B)(i) of the Act requires each state to submit a
SIP revision requiring owners or operators of stationary sources of VOC
or NOX to provide the state with statements of actual
emissions from such sources. Statements must be submitted at least
every year and must contain a certification that the information
contained in the statement is accurate to the best knowledge of the
individual certifying the statement. Section 182(a)(3)(B)(ii) of the
Act allows states to waive the emission statement requirement for any
class or category of stationary sources that emit less than 25 tpy of
VOC or NOX, if the state provides an inventory of emissions
from such class or category of sources as part of the base year or
periodic inventories required under CAA sections 182(a)(1) and
182(a)(3)(A), based on the use of emission factors established by the
EPA or other methods acceptable to the EPA.
The preamble of the 2008 Ozone SRR states that if an area has a
previously approved emissions statement rule for the 1997 ozone NAAQS
or the 1-hour ozone NAAQS that covers all portions of the nonattainment
area for the 2008 ozone NAAQS, such rule should be sufficient for
purposes of the emissions statement requirement for the 2008 ozone
NAAQS.\55\ The state should review the existing rule to ensure it is
adequate and, if so, may rely on it to meet the emissions statement
requirement for the 2008 ozone NAAQS. Where an existing emissions
statement requirement is still adequate to meet the requirements of
this rule, states can provide the rationale for that determination to
the EPA in a written statement in the SIP to meet this requirement.
States should identify the various requirements and how each is met by
the existing emissions statement program. Where an emissions statement
requirement is modified for any reason, the state must provide the
revisions to the emissions statement as part of its SIP.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\55\ 80 FR 12264, at 12291 (March 6, 2015).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
2. Summary of the State's Submission
The 2016 WMD Attainment Plan addresses compliance with the
emissions statement requirement in CAA section 182(a)(3)(B) for the
2008 ozone NAAQS by reference to AVAQMD Rule 107 and MDAQMD Rule
107.\56\ These rules require, among other things, emissions reporting
within the West Mojave Desert from all stationary sources of
NOX and VOC with emissions over 25 tpy.\57\ The EPA approved
AVAQMD Rule 107 on April 11, 2013 (78 FR 21545) and MDAQMD Rule 107 on
May 26, 2004 (69 FR 29880) as revisions to each District's portion of
the California SIP. AVAQMD and MDAQMD letters to CARB state that these
rules continue to meet the emission statement requirements of CAA
section 182(a)(3)(B) and that the Districts rely on these rules to meet
the
[[Page 24815]]
emissions statement requirements for the 2008 ozone standards.\58\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\56\ Addendum A to Appendix D and Addendum A to Appendix E of
the CARB Staff Report.
\57\ Id.
\58\ Appendix D1 and D2 and Appendix E1 and E1 of the CARB Staff
Report.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
3. The EPA's Review of the State's Submission
For this action, we have reviewed AVAQMD Rule 107 and MDAQMD Rule
107 for compliance with the specific requirements for emissions
statement rules under CAA section 182(a)(3)(B). We agree with the
Districts' findings: That these rules apply within the entire ozone
nonattainment area and that the nonattainment area is the same for both
the 1997 Ozone NAAQS and the 2008 ozone NAAQS; that the rules apply to
all stationary sources of VOC and NOX, except those emitting
less than 25 tpy for which the Districts have waived the requirement
(consistent with CAA section 182(a)(3)(B)(ii)); and that the rules
require reporting, on an annual basis, of total emissions of VOC and
NOX. We also find that AVAQMD Rule 107 and MDAQMD Rule 107
require certification that the information provided to the Districts is
accurate to the best knowledge of the individual certifying the
emissions data, as required under CAA section 182(a)(3)(B).
Therefore, we propose to approve the emissions statement element of
the 2016 WMD Attainment Plan as meeting the requirements of CAA section
182(a)(3)(B) and the 40 CFR 51.1102.
C. Reasonably Available Control Measures Demonstration
1. Statutory and Regulatory Requirements
CAA section 172(c)(1) requires that each attainment plan provide
for the implementation of all RACM as expeditiously as practicable
(including such reductions in emissions from existing sources in the
area as may be obtained through implementation of reasonably available
control technology (RACT)), and also provide for attainment of the
NAAQS. The 2008 Ozone SRR requires that, for each nonattainment area
required to submit an attainment demonstration, the state concurrently
submit a SIP revision demonstrating that it has adopted all RACM
necessary to demonstrate attainment as expeditiously as practicable and
to meet any RFP requirements.\59\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\59\ 40 CFR 51.1112(c).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
The EPA has previously provided guidance interpreting the RACM
requirement in the General Preamble for the Implementation of the Clean
Air Act Amendments of 1990 (``General Preamble'') and in a memorandum
entitled ``Guidance on the Reasonably Available Control Measures (RACM)
Requirement and Attainment Demonstration Submissions for Ozone
Nonattainment Areas.'' \60\ In summary, to address the requirement to
adopt all RACM, states should consider all potentially reasonable
control measures for source categories in the nonattainment area to
determine whether they are reasonably available for implementation in
that area and whether they would, if implemented individually or
collectively, advance the area's attainment date by one year or
more.\61\ Any measures that are necessary to meet these requirements
that are not already either federally promulgated, or part of the
state's SIP, or otherwise creditable in the SIP, must be submitted in
enforceable form as part of the state's attainment plan for the
area.\62\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\60\ General Preamble, 57 FR 13498 at 13560 (April 16, 1992);
memorandum dated November 30, 1999, from John Seitz, Director,
OAQPS, to EPA Regional Air Directors, Regions I-X, Subject:
``Guidance on the Reasonably Available Control Measures (RACM)
Requirement and Attainment Demonstration Submissions for Ozone
Nonattainment Areas.''
\61\ Id. See also 44 FR 20372 (April 4, 1979), and memorandum
dated December 14, 2000, from John S. Seitz, Director, OAQPS, to
Regional Air Directors, titled ``Additional Submission on RACM From
States with Severe One-Hour Ozone Nonattainment Area SIPs.''
\62\ For ozone nonattainment areas classified as Moderate or
above, CAA section 182(b)(2) also requires implementation of RACT
for all major sources of VOC and for each VOC source category for
which the EPA has issued a Control Techniques Guideline (CTG). CAA
section 182(f) requires that RACT under section 182(b)(2) also apply
to major stationary sources of NOX. In Extreme areas, a
major source is a stationary source that emits or has the potential
to emit at least 10 tpy of VOC or NOX (see CAA section
182(e) and (f)). Under the 2008 Ozone SRR, states were required to
submit SIP revisions meeting the RACT requirements of CAA sections
182(b)(2) and 182(f) no later than 24 months after the effective
date of designation for the 2008 Ozone NAAQS and to implement the
required RACT measures as expeditiously as practicable but no later
than January 1 of the 5th year after the effective date of
designation (see 40 CFR 51.1112(a)). California submitted the CAA
section 182 RACT SIP for AVAQMD and MDAQMD on October 23, 2015 and
September 9, 2015, respectively. The EPA conditionally approved
these submissions at 82 FR 46923 (October 10, 2017) and 83 FR 5921
(February 12, 2018).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
CAA section 172(c)(6) requires that nonattainment area plans
include enforceable emission limitations, and such other control
measures, means or techniques (including economic incentives such as
fees, marketable permits, and auctions of emission rights), as well as
schedules and timetables for compliance, as may be necessary or
appropriate to provide for timely attainment of the NAAQS.\63\ Under
the 2008 Ozone SRR, all control measures needed for attainment must be
implemented no later than the beginning of the attainment year ozone
season.\64\ The attainment year ozone season is defined as the ozone
season immediately preceding a nonattainment area's outermost
attainment date.\65\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\63\ See also CAA section 110(a)(2)(A).
\64\ 40 CFR 51.1108(d).
\65\ 40 CFR 51.1100(h).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
2. Summary of the State's Submission
a. The Districts' RACM Analysis
The AVAQMD and MDAQMD Attainment Plans explain that they
incorporate all RACM, and that the Districts have adopted or committed
in the Attainment Plans to adopt all such measures.\66\ The Plans note
the Districts' reviews of stationary source rules conducted during the
development of the RACT SIPs submitted to the EPA in 2015,\67\ and set
out the Districts' schedules for adoption of rules identified in those
reviews.\68\ The CARB Staff Report includes a further RACM assessment
from each District confirming that the Districts have examined existing
control measures and determined that no additional RACT or mobile
source controls will advance the attainment date for the West Mojave
Desert for the 2008 ozone standard.\69\ These assessments also note
that photochemical modeling shows the WMD would attain the ozone NAAQS
if not for upwind emissions from the South Coast Air Basin and San
Joaquin Valley.\70\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\66\ AVAQMD Attainment Plan, 6-7, and MDAQMD Attainment Plan, 7.
\67\ ``2015 8-Hour Ozone Reasonably Available Control Technology
(RACT) SIP Analysis: Antelope Valley Air Quality Management
District'' and ``2015 8-Hour Ozone Reasonably Available Control
Technology (RACT) SIP Analysis: Mojave Desert Air Quality Management
District.'' The EPA conditionally approved these submissions at 82
FR 46923 (October 10, 2017) and 83 FR 5921 (February 12, 2018),
respectively.
\68\ AVAQMD Attainment Plan, 17, and MDAQMD Attainment Plan, 19.
\69\ CARB Staff Report, Appendix D-3 and E-3. See also CARB
Staff Report, 10.
\70\ CARB Staff Report, Appendix D-3 and E-3. This finding is
supported by Appendix B of the CARB Staff Report, which contains a
conceptual model explaining the formation of ozone in the WMD, and
the heavy influence of transport from the South Coast Air Basin.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
b. CARB'S RACM Analysis
Source categories for which CARB has primary jurisdiction for
reducing emissions in California include most new and existing on- and
off-road engines and vehicles, motor vehicle fuels, and consumer
products. CARB's RACM assessment is contained in the Appendix E,
``Ozone RACM Assessment,'' of both the AVAQMD and MDAQMD Attainment
Plans. Appendix
[[Page 24816]]
F, ``CARB Adopted Mobile Source Programs,'' of these attainment plans
also includes a general description of CARB's key mobile source
regulations and programs and a comprehensive table listing on- and off-
road mobile source regulatory actions taken by CARB from 1985 through
2016. The RACM assessment contains CARB's evaluation of mobile source
and other statewide control measures that reduce emissions of
NOX and VOC in the WMD.
Given the need for substantial emissions reductions from mobile and
area sources to meet the NAAQS in California nonattainment areas, CARB
has established stringent control measures for on-road and off-road
mobile sources and the fuels that power them. California has unique
authority under CAA section 209 (subject to a waiver by the EPA) to
adopt and implement new emission standards for many categories of on-
road vehicles and engines, and new and in-use off-road vehicles and
engines.
CARB's mobile source program extends beyond regulations that are
subject to the waiver or authorization process set forth in CAA section
209, to include standards and other requirements to control emissions
from in-use heavy-duty trucks and buses, gasoline and diesel fuel
specifications, and many other types of mobile sources. Generally,
these regulations have been submitted and approved as revisions to the
California SIP.\71\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\71\ See, e.g., the EPA's approval of standards and other
requirements to control emissions from in-use heavy-duty diesel-
powered trucks, at 77 FR 20308 (April 4, 2012), revisions to the
California on-road reformulated gasoline and diesel fuel regulations
at 75 FR 26653 (May 12, 2010), and revisions to the California motor
vehicle inspection and maintenance program at 75 FR 38023 (July 1,
2010).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
The Districts' Attainment Plans include CARB's RACM analysis for
mobile source measures in the West Mojave Desert. In this analysis,
CARB concludes:
There are no reasonable regulatory control measures excluded
from use in this plan; therefore, there are no emissions reductions
associated with unused regulatory control measures. As a result,
California's mobile source control programs fully meet the
requirements for RACM.\72\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\72\ AVAQMD Attainment Plan, Appendix E-7; MDAQMD Attainment
Plan, Appendix E-7.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
c. Local Jurisdictions' RACM Analysis and Transportation Control
Measures
The supplemental RACM assessments included as addendums to
appendices D and E of the CARB Staff Report address the Districts' RACM
findings, including for transportation control measures (TCMs). These
addendums state that the Districts examined existing control measures
and determined that controls from RACT and mobile source emission
control programs will not advance the West Mojave Desert's attainment
year for the 2008 ozone standards.\73\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\73\ CARB Staff Report, Appendix D-3 and E-3.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
3. The EPA's Review of the State's Submission
The TSD for this action includes additional analysis to evaluate
the Districts' and CARB's RACM assessments.\74\ In that analysis, we
estimate that a 1.2 tpd reduction of NOX emissions would be
necessary to advance attainment by one year from 2026 to 2025, and
conservatively identify no more than 1.04 tpd of additional reductions
that could be achieved through implementation of potential RACM for
stationary sources. Based on this analysis, we agree with the
Districts' and CARB's conclusion that there are no additional RACM that
would advance attainment of the 2008 ozone standards in the WMD by at
least one year.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\74\ Technical Support Document, Clean Air Plans; 2008 8-Hour
Ozone Nonattainment Area Requirements; West Mojave Desert,
California, U.S. EPA Region IX, September 2020.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
We also find that CARB's consumer products program comprehensively
addresses emissions from consumer products in the WMD. CARB measures
are more stringent than the EPA's consumer products regulation
promulgated in 1998,\75\ and generally exceed the controls in place
throughout other areas of the country. We agree with CARB's conclusion
that its mobile source regulations include all reasonably available
controls.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\75\ 63 FR 48819 (September 11, 1998).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
For the WMD, given the significant influence of pollutant transport
from the South Coast Air Basin and the minimal and diminishing
emissions benefits generally associated with TCMs, no new TCMs
implemented in the WMD, alone or in combination with potential
additional rules, would contribute to advancing the attainment date in
the WMD by one year. Therefore, no new TCMs are required to satisfy the
RACM requirement in the WMD.
For the foregoing reasons, and as addressed more fully in the TSD
for this action, we propose to find that the 2016 Attainment Plan
provides for the implementation of all RACM as required by CAA section
172(c)(1) and 40 CFR 51.1112(c).
D. Attainment Demonstration
1. Statutory and Regulatory Requirements
An attainment demonstration consists of the following: (1)
Technical analyses, such as base year and future year modeling, to
locate and identify sources of emissions that are contributing to
violations of the ozone NAAQS within the nonattainment area (i.e.,
analyses related to the emissions inventory for the nonattainment area
and the emissions reductions necessary to attain the standard); (2) a
list of adopted measures (including RACT controls) with schedules for
implementation and other means and techniques necessary and appropriate
for demonstrating RFP and attainment as expeditiously as practicable
but no later than the outside attainment date for the area's
classification; (3) a RACM analysis; and (4) contingency measures
required under sections 172(c)(9) and 182(c)(9) of the CAA that can be
implemented without further action by the state or the EPA to cover
emissions shortfalls in RFP plans and failures to attain.\76\ This
subsection of this proposed rule addresses the first two components of
the attainment demonstration--the technical analyses and a review of
adopted measures. Section III.C of this document, ``Reasonably
Available Control Measures Demonstration,'' addresses the RACM
component, and section III.G, ``Contingency Measures,'' addresses the
contingency measures component of the attainment demonstration in the
Attainment Plans.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\76\ 78 FR 34178, 34184 (June 6, 2013), the EPA's proposed rule
for implementing the 2008 ozone NAAQS.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
With respect to the technical analyses, section 182(c)(2)(A) of the
CAA requires that a plan for an ozone nonattainment area classified
``Serious'' or above include a ``demonstration that the plan . . . will
provide for attainment of the ozone [NAAQS] by the applicable
attainment date. This attainment demonstration must be based on
photochemical grid modeling or any other analytical method determined .
. . to be at least as effective.'' The attainment demonstration
predicts future ambient concentrations for comparison to the NAAQS,
making use of available information on measured concentrations,
meteorology, and current and projected emissions inventories of ozone
precursors, including the effect of control measures in the plan. Areas
classified Severe-15 for the 2008 ozone NAAQS must demonstrate
attainment as expeditiously as practicable, but no later than 15 years
[[Page 24817]]
after the effective date of designation as nonattainment. The WMD was
designated nonattainment for the 2008 ozone NAAQS effective July 20,
2012,\77\ and accordingly must demonstrate attainment of the standards
by no later than July 20, 2027.\78\ An attainment demonstration must
show attainment of the standards for a full calendar year before the
attainment date, so in practice, Severe-15 nonattainment areas must
demonstrate attainment no later than 2026.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\77\ 77 FR 30088 (May 21, 2012).
\78\ 80 FR 12264 (March 6, 2015).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
The EPA's recommended procedures for modeling ozone as part of an
attainment demonstration are contained in ``Modeling Guidance for
Demonstrating Attainment of Air Quality Goals for Ozone,
PM2.5, and Regional Haze'' (``Modeling Guidance'').\79\ The
Modeling Guidance includes recommendations for a modeling protocol,
model input preparation, model performance evaluation, use of model
output for the numerical NAAQS attainment test, and modeling
documentation. Air quality modeling is performed using meteorology and
emissions from a base year, and the predicted concentrations from this
base case modeling are compared to air quality monitoring data from
that year to evaluate model performance. Once the model performance is
determined to be acceptable, future year emissions are simulated with
the model. The relative (or percent) change in modeled concentration
due to future emissions reductions provides a relative response factor
(RRF). Each monitoring site's RRF is applied to its monitored base year
design value to provide the future design value for comparison to the
NAAQS. The Modeling Guidance also recommends supplemental air quality
analyses, which may be used as part of a weight of evidence (WOE)
analysis. A WOE analysis corroborates the attainment demonstration by
considering evidence other than the main air quality modeling
attainment test, such as trends and additional monitoring and modeling
analyses.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\79\ ``Modeling Guidance for Demonstrating Attainment of Air
Quality Goals for Ozone, PM2.5, and Regional Haze,'' EPA
454/R-18-009 (November 2018); available at https://www.epa.gov/scram/state-implementation-plan-sip-attainment-demonstration-guidance. See also December 2014 draft of this guidance, available
at the same website. The December 2014 draft guidance was available
during development of the Plan; the final version differs mainly in
organization, and in updates to the regional haze portion and to
other document references. Additional EPA modeling guidance can be
found in 40 CFR 51 Appendix W, Guideline on Air Quality Models, 82
FR 5182 (January 17, 2017); available at https://www.epa.gov/scram/clean-air-act-permit-modeling-guidance.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
The Modeling Guidance also does not require a particular year to be
used as the base year for 8-hour ozone plans.\80\ The Modeling Guidance
states that the most recent year of the National Emissions Inventory
may be appropriate for use as the base year for modeling, but that
other years may be more appropriate when considering meteorology,
transport patterns, exceptional events, or other factors that may vary
from year to year.\81\ Therefore, the base year used for the attainment
demonstration need not be the same year used to meet the requirements
for emissions inventories and RFP.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\80\ Modeling Guidance at section 2.7.1, 35.
\81\ Id.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
With respect to the list of adopted measures, CAA section 172(c)(6)
requires that nonattainment area plans include enforceable emissions
limitations, and such other control measures, means or techniques
(including economic incentives such as fees, marketable permits, and
auctions of emission rights), as well as schedules and timetables for
compliance, as may be necessary or appropriate to provide for timely
attainment of the NAAQS.\82\ Under the 2008 Ozone SRR, all control
measures needed for attainment must be implemented no later than the
beginning of the attainment year ozone season.\83\ The attainment year
ozone season is defined as the ozone season immediately preceding a
nonattainment area's outermost attainment date.\84\ For the West Mojave
Desert, the outermost attainment year is 2026.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\82\ See also CAA section 110(a)(2)(A).
\83\ 40 CFR 51.1108(d).
\84\ 40 CFR 51.1100(h).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
2. Summary of the State's Submission
a. Photochemical Modeling
The 2016 WMD Attainment Plan includes photochemical modeling for
the 2008 ozone NAAQS. The South Coast Air Quality Management District
(SCAQMD) performed the air quality modeling for the 2016 WMD Attainment
Plan, as part of the Final 2016 Air Quality Management Plan for the
South Coast Air Quality Management District (``SCAQMD 2016 AQMP'').\85\
The modeling relies on a 2012 base year and demonstrates attainment of
the 2008 ozone NAAQS by the applicable Severe-15 area attainment year
(i.e., 2026).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\85\ Appendix V, Final 2016 Air Quality Management Plan, March
2017, SCAQMD. See AVAQMD Attainment Plan, 31, and MDAQMD Attainment
Plan, 33.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
The modeling and modeled attainment demonstration are described in
Chapter 4, ``Attainment Demonstration,'' of the 2016 WMD Attainment
Plan and in Appendix D, ``Western Mojave Desert Modeling Analysis.''
The AVAQMD Attainment Plan and the MDAQMD Attainment Plan also
reference Appendix V of the SCAQMD 2016 AQMP for additional information
on the modeled attainment demonstration.
The modeling protocol is in Chapter 2, ``Modeling Protocol,'' of
Appendix V of the SCAQMD 2016 AQMP and contains all the elements
recommended in the Modeling Guidance. Those include the following:
Selection of model, time period to model, modeling domain, and model
boundary conditions and initialization procedures; a discussion of
emissions inventory development and other model input preparation
procedures; model performance evaluation procedures; selection of days;
and other details for calculating RRFs. Appendix V of the SCAQMD 2016
AQMP also provides the coordinates of the modeling domain and
thoroughly describes the development of the modeling emissions
inventory, its spatial and temporal allocation, its temperature
dependence, and quality assurance procedures.
The modeling analysis uses version 5.0.2 of the Community
Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) photochemical model, developed by the
EPA. To prepare meteorological input for CMAQ, the modeling analysis
uses the Weather and Research Forecasting model version 3.6 (WRF) from
the National Center for Atmospheric Research. CMAQ and WRF are both
recognized in the Modeling Guidance as technically sound, state-of-the-
art models. The areal extent and the horizontal and vertical resolution
used in these models are adequate for modeling West Mojave Desert
ozone.
The SCAQMD assessed the performance of the WRF meteorological model
through a series of simulations, and the SCAQMD concluded that the
daily WRF simulation for 2012 provided representative meteorological
fields that characterized the observed conditions well. The SCAQMD's
conclusions are supported by hourly time series graphs of wind speed,
direction, and temperature.\86\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\86\ Attachment 1 (``WRF Model Performance Time Series''),
Chapter 3 (``Meteorological Modeling and Sensitivity Analyses''),
Appendix V (``Modeling and Attainment Demonstration'') of the 2016
SCAQMD AQMP.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ozone model performance statistics are described in Appendix D,
``West Mojave Desert Community Multiscale Air Quality Model Performance
Analysis,'' of both the AVAQMD and MDAQMD Attainment Plans, which
include tables of statistics
[[Page 24818]]
recommended in the Modeling Guidance for 8-hour daily maximum ozone for
the WMD. This section presents hourly time series, as well as density
scatter plots and plots of bias against concentration. Note that
because only relative changes are used from the modeling, the
overprediction or underprediction of absolute ozone concentrations does
not mean that future concentrations will be overestimated or
underestimated.
After model performance for the 2012 base case was accepted, the
model was applied to develop RRFs for the attainment demonstration.
This entailed running the model with the same meteorological inputs as
before, but with adjusted emissions inventories to reflect the expected
changes between 2012 and the 2026 attainment year. The base year or
``reference year'' modeling inventory was the same as the inventory for
the modeling base case. The 2026 inventory projects the base year into
the future by including the effect of economic growth and emissions
control measures. The set of 153 days from May 1 through September 30,
2012, was simulated and analyzed to determine daily 8-hour average
maximum ozone concentrations for the 2020 emissions inventory. To
develop the RRFs for the 2008 ozone NAAQS, only the top 10 days were
used.
The Modeling Guidance addresses attainment demonstrations with
ozone NAAQS based on 8-hour averages. For the 2008 ozone NAAQS,
Appendix D of the 2016 WMD Attainment Plan includes the attainment test
procedure consistent with the Modeling Guidance. The RRFs were
calculated as the ratio of future to base year concentrations. The
resulting RRFs were then applied to 2012 weighted base year design
values \87\ for each monitor to arrive at a 2026 future year design
value.\88\ The 2016 WMD Attainment Plan narrowly projects that the West
Mojave Desert will reach modeled attainment in 2023, with the highest
ozone design value of 0.0759 ppm at the Phelan monitor site (station
number: 06-071-0012); this value demonstrates attainment of the
corresponding 2008 ozone NAAQS of 0.075 ppm.\89\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\87\ The Modeling Guidance recommends that RRFs be applied to
the average of three three-year design values centered on the base
year, in this case the design values for 2010-2012, 2011-2013, and
2012-2014. This amounts to a 5-year weighted average of individual
year 4th-high concentrations, centered on the base year of 2012, and
so is referred to as a weighted design value.
\88\ Table 5 of Appendix A-1 of the CARB Staff Report.
\89\ Appendix P of 40 CFR part 50 for a discussion of reporting
and handling procedures for the primary and secondary ozone
standards that discusses truncating the third digit to the right of
the decimal place.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Appendix B of the CARB Staff Report presents a WOE analysis with
further discussion of the modeling for the area. The WOE analysis
includes the following: An evaluation of ambient ozone trends;
precursor emissions trends for the region (i.e., the South Coast Air
Basin, San Joaquin Valley, and the WMD); an evaluation of diurnal ozone
monitoring trends; and a conceptual model that describes the conditions
that create the exceedances of the 2008 ozone NAAQS. These evaluations
complement the photochemical modeling analysis for the area and show
that the area's timely attainment is dependent on continuing future
reductions from implementation of control measures in neighboring
upwind nonattainment areas. The WOE analysis concludes that, based on
these upwind reductions from neighboring nonattainment areas, the WMD
will attain the 2008 ozone standard by 2026.\90\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\90\ Appendix B, CARB Staff Report, B-30. The TSD for this
action includes additional discussion of the modeled attainment
demonstration and WOE analysis that support this conclusion.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Finally, Appendix D of each of the Districts' Attainment Plans
includes an unmonitored area analysis for the 2008 ozone NAAQS to
assess the attainment status of locations other than monitoring sites.
The unmonitored area analysis in the 2016 WMD Attainment Plan shows
concentrations below the 2008 ozone NAAQS for all locations.\91\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\91\ Figure 3: 2023 Predicted 8-hr Ozone Design Values, Appendix
D, of both districts Attainment Plans.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
b. Control Strategy
The control strategy for attainment of the 2008 ozone NAAQS in the
WMD relies on timely attainment in 2023 of the 1997 ozone NAAQS in the
upwind Los Angeles-South Coast Air Basin,\92\ which is the same year
the WMD model shows attainment. The attainment plan for the 2008 ozone
NAAQS for the South Coast Air Basin, which has been previously approved
by the EPA, projects a 277 tpd reduction in NOX and a 121
tpd reduction in VOC from 2012 base year emissions (522 tpd for
NOX and 500 tpd for VOC).\93\ In addition, the 2008 ozone
attainment plan for the San Joaquin Valley, which has also been
previously approved by the EPA, projects a 214.6 tpd reduction of
NOX and 34.4 tpd reduction of VOC in 2023, from 2012 base
year emissions (339.6 tpd for NOX and 337.3 tpd for VOC in
2011).\94\ Both upwind areas continue to show emission reductions
through 2026 and beyond.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\92\ Appendix B, CARB Staff Report, B-2.
\93\ Approval of Air Quality Implementation Plans; California;
South Coast Air Basin; 1-Hour and 8-Hour Ozone Nonattainment Area
Requirements, Proposed Rule, 84 FR 28132 (June 17, 2019). EPA
finalized approval of the South Coast plan for the 2008 ozone NAAQS
at 84 FR 52005 (October 1, 2019).
\94\ Air Quality State Implementation Plans; Approvals and
Promulgations: Clean Air Plans; 2008 8-Hour Ozone Nonattainment Area
Requirements; San Joaquin Valley, California, Proposed Rule 83 FR
61346 (November 28, 2018). EPA finalized approval of the San Joaquin
Valley plan for the 2008 ozone NAAQS at 84 FR 3302 (February 12,
2018).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Within the WMD, the control strategy for attainment of the 2008
ozone NAAQS in the 2016 WMD Attainment Plan relies primarily on
emissions reductions from baseline (i.e., already-adopted) measures.
These baseline control measures include the Districts' stationary
source rules,\95\ and CARB's mobile source and consumer product rules
adopted through 2016, as listed in Appendix F of the 2016 WMD
Attainment Plan, ``CARB Adopted Mobile Source Programs.'' The
attainment demonstration and base year emissions inventory use a 2012
base year (101.09 tpd of NOX and 43.69 tpd of VOC), and
consistent with South Coast II, the RFP demonstration relies on a 2011
baseline year.\96\ The attainment year emissions estimate for the
attainment demonstration is the same throughout the 2016 WMD Attainment
Plan and 2018 SIP Update (68.5 tpd of NOX and 40.5 tpd of
VOC) and represents a 30.3 percent NOX reduction and a 13.4
percent VOC reduction from the 2012 emissions inventory base year
emissions.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\95\ Technical Support Document: Clean Air Plans; 2008 8-Hour
Ozone Nonattainment Area Requirements; West Mojave Desert,
California, EPA-R09-OAR-2020-0254, Tables 1 and 2.
\96\ The modeling base year emissions were taken from Table 1
and Appendix A of the AVAQMD and MDAQMD Attainment Plans. The CARB
Staff Report notes 2012 base year emissions from the Districts'
plans were average day emissions, i.e., averaged over the entire
year, rather than average summer day emissions, which are included
in Appendix A of the CARB Staff Report and were submitted as the
2012 base year emissions.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
c. Attainment Demonstration
Chapter 4 of the Districts' Attainment Plans describes the
attainment demonstration in general terms, including photochemical
modeling results. Chapter 4 references Appendix V of the SCAQMD 2016
AQMP, which provides information on the modeling protocol. Appendix D
of the District's Attainment Plans contains model results and
performance for the WMD. The WOE analysis in Appendix B to the CARB
Staff Report includes additional supporting information to complement
the photochemical modeling and to provide context for this attainment
[[Page 24819]]
demonstration, such as ambient ozone data, a conceptual model of ozone
formation, anthropogenic emission trends, ozone trends, and a
discussion of the attainment projections. Baseline measures are
expected to reduce 2012 base year emissions of NOX by 30.7
percent and VOC emissions by 13 percent by 2026, and to attain the 2008
ozone NAAQS in the WMD by 2023, three years ahead of the outermost
attainment year, 2026.
3. The EPA's Review of the State's Submission
a. Photochemical Modeling
The EPA has reviewed the modeling platform and agrees that the CMAQ
(version 5.0.2) modeling platform, and the WRF (version 3.6.1)
meteorological fields are appropriate for the ozone attainment
demonstration. After review, the EPA is satisfied that the
meteorological model, WRF, performed adequately. The diurnal variation
of temperature, humidity and surface wind are well represented by WRF.
The EPA has also reviewed the time series, scatter plots, and ozone
performance, and determined that overall, the CMAQ photochemical
modeling performance for ozone is acceptable.
We are proposing to find the air quality modeling adequate to
support the attainment demonstrations for the 2008 ozone NAAQS, based
on reasonable meteorological and ozone modeling performance, supported
by the weight of evidence analyses.
b. Control Strategy
Based on our review of the emissions inventory documentation in the
CARB Staff Report, we find that CARB and the Districts have used the
most recent planning and activity assumptions, emissions models, and
methodologies to estimate the effect of the control strategy on the
baseline and milestone year emissions inventories. The 2016 WMD
Attainment Plan relies on state and locally adopted baseline control
measures, i.e., already-adopted control measures, to achieve the
emissions reductions needed to attain the 2008 ozone NAAQS. The
baseline measures are approved into the SIP and, as such, are fully
creditable within the attainment demonstration analysis. Accordingly,
we propose to find that the emissions reductions that are relied on for
attainment are creditable and sufficient to provide for attainment.
c. Attainment Demonstration
Based on our review of the 2016 WMD Attainment Plan and our
proposed findings that the photochemical modeling and control strategy
are acceptable and demonstrate attainment by July 20, 2027, we propose
to approve the attainment demonstration for the 2008 ozone NAAQS in the
2016 WMD Attainment Plan as meeting the requirements of CAA section
182(c)(2)(A) and 40 CFR 51.1108. The Districts' Attainment Plans and
the WOE in the CARB Staff Report demonstrate that the ozone design
value in the WMD will meet the 0.075 ppm standard by 2026, and
therefore will meet the attainment date of July 20, 2027, for the 2008
ozone standard. While the submitted modeling projects that attainment
is possible in advance of the 2026 deadline, the EPA is relying on the
modeling, additional information provided in the WOE, and current ozone
trends, to conclude that the WMD will attain the 2008 ozone NAAQS by
2026, consistent with the outermost attainment date of July 20, 2027.
See the TSD for additional information.
E. Rate of Progress Plan and Reasonable Further Progress Demonstration
1. Statutory and Regulatory Requirements
Requirements for RFP are specified in CAA sections 172(c)(2),
182(b)(1), and 182(c)(2)(B). CAA section 172(c)(2) requires that plans
for nonattainment areas provide for RFP, which is defined at CAA
section 171(1) as such annual incremental reductions in emissions of
the relevant air pollutant as are required under part D, ``Plan
Requirements for Nonattainment Areas,'' or may reasonably be required
by the EPA for the purpose of ensuring attainment of the applicable
NAAQS by the applicable date. CAA section 182(b)(1) specifically
requires that ozone nonattainment areas that are classified as
``Moderate'' or above demonstrate a 15 percent reduction in VOC between
the years of 1990 and 1996. The EPA has typically referred to section
182(b)(1) as the rate of progress (ROP) requirement. For ozone
nonattainment areas classified as Serious or higher, section
182(c)(2)(B) requires reductions averaged over each consecutive 3-year
period beginning 6 years after the baseline year until the attainment
date of at least 3 percent of baseline emissions per year. CAA section
182(c)(2)(B)(ii) allows an amount less than 3 percent of such baseline
emissions each year if the state demonstrates to the EPA that the plan
includes all measures that can feasibly be implemented in the area in
light of technological achievability.
The 2008 Ozone SRR considers areas classified Moderate or higher to
have met the ROP requirements of CAA section 182(b)(1) if the area has
a fully approved 15 percent ROP plan for the 1-hour or 1997 8-hour
ozone standards, provided the boundaries of the ozone nonattainment
areas are the same.\97\ For such areas, the RFP requirements of CAA
section 172(c)(2) require areas classified as Moderate to provide a 15
percent emission reduction of ozone precursors within 6 years of the
baseline year. Areas classified as Serious or higher must meet the RFP
requirements of CAA section 182(c)(2)(B) by providing an 18 percent
reduction of ozone precursors in the first 6-year period, and an
average ozone precursor emission reduction of 3 percent per year for
all remaining 3-year periods thereafter.\98\ Under CAA 182(c)(2)(C), a
state may substitute NOX emissions reductions for VOC
emissions reductions.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\97\ 80 FR 12264, 12271 (March 6, 2015).
\98\ Id.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Except as specifically provided in CAA section 182(b)(1)(C),
emission reductions from all SIP-approved, federally promulgated, or
otherwise SIP-creditable measures that occur after the baseline are
creditable for purposes of demonstrating that the RFP targets are met.
Because the EPA has determined that the passage of time has caused the
effect of certain exclusions to be de minimis, the RFP demonstration is
no longer required to calculate and specifically exclude reductions
from measures related to motor vehicle exhaust or evaporative emissions
promulgated by January 1, 1990; regulations concerning Reid vapor
pressure promulgated by November 15, 1990; measures to correct previous
RACT requirements; and measures required to correct previous vehicle
inspection and maintenance (I/M) programs.\99\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\99\ 40 CFR 51.1110(a)(7).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
The 2008 Ozone SRR requires the RFP baseline year to be the most
recent calendar year for which a complete triennial inventory is
required to be submitted to the EPA (i.e., 2011). As discussed above,
the 2008 Ozone SRR provided states with the opportunity to use an
alternative baseline year for RFP,\100\ but this provision was vacated
by the D.C. Circuit in the South Coast II decision.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\100\ 40 CFR 51.1110(b).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
2. Summary of the State's Submission
The 2016 WMD Attainment Plan addresses the 15 percent ROP
requirement by noting that the EPA had proposed approval of the 15
percent ROP plan for the 1997 ozone NAAQS for the WMD, and that the
1997 ozone nonattainment area covers the entire
[[Page 24820]]
nonattainment area for the 2008 ozone standards.\101\ The EPA approved
the 15 percent ROP demonstration for the 1997 ozone NAAQS, effective
July 24, 2017.\102\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\101\ Chapter 3 of both Districts' Attainment Plans.
\102\ 82 FR 28560 (June 23, 2017).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
With respect to the RFP demonstration requirement, the 2016 WMD
Attainment Plan includes an RFP demonstration derived from a 2012 RFP
baseline year.\103\ In response to the South Coast II decision, CARB
developed the 2018 SIP Update, which includes a section that replaces
the RFP portion of the 2016 WMD Attainment Plan with an updated RFP
demonstration based on a 2011 RFP baseline year.\104\ To develop the
2011 RFP baseline inventory, CARB relied on actual emissions reported
from industrial point sources for year 2011. For emissions from smaller
stationary sources and area sources, CARB backcast emissions from 2012
to 2011 using the same growth and control factors as were used for the
2016 WMD Attainment Plan. To develop the emissions inventories for the
2017, 2020 and 2023 RFP milestone years, CARB also relied upon the same
growth and control factors as the 2016 WMD Attainment Plan. Therefore,
the emissions estimates for the attainment year, 2026, are consistent
in both the 2018 SIP Update and the 2016 WMD Attainment Plan.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\103\ Chapter 3 of both Districts' Attainment Plans.
\104\ Chapter VI of the 2018 SIP Update.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Documentation for the WMD RFP baseline and milestone emissions
inventories is found in the 2018 SIP Update on pages 36-37 and in
Appendix A of the 2018 SIP Update on pages A-19 through A-22. The RFP
baseline emissions inventories reflect rules identified in Table 5 of
the CARB Staff Report.
Table 2 provides a summary of CARB's emissions estimates in tpd for
VOC and NOX for the 2011 RFP baseline year, the 2017, 2020,
2023 RFP milestone years, and the 2026 RFP milestone/attainment year,
evaluated relative to the percentage reductions necessary to
demonstrate RFP.
Table 2--WMD RFP Demonstration for the 2008 Ozone NAAQS
[Summer planning inventory, tpd or percent]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2011 2017 2020 2023 2026
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
VOCs
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Baseline VOC.................... 48.7 41.5 40.4 40.4 40.5
Transportation conformity safety .............. 0 0 0 0.2
margin.........................
Baseline VOC + safety margin.... 48.7 41.5 40.4 40.4 40.7
Required % change since 2011.... .............. 18% 27% 36% 45%
Target VOC level................ .............. 40.0 35.6 31.2 26.8
Apparent shortfall/surplus, tpd. .............. -1.5 -4.8 -9.2 -13.9
Apparent shortfall ( - )/surplus .............. -3.1% -9.9% -18.8% -28.4%
( + ) in VOC...................
VOC shortfall previously .............. 0 3.1% 9.9% 18.8%
provided by NOX substitution, %
Actual VOC shortfall ( - )/ .............. -3.1% -6.8% -8.9% -9.6%
surplus ( + ), %...............
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NO
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Baseline NOX.................... 98.4 84.5 79.8 72.1 68.5
Transportation conformity safety 0 0 0 0 0.4
margin.........................
Baseline NOX + safety margin.... 98.4 84.5 79.8 72.1 68.9
Change in NOX since 2011, tpd... .............. 13.8 18.6 26.2 29.4
Change in NOX since 2011, %..... .............. 14.1% 18.9% 26.7% 29.9%
NOX reductions used for VOC .............. 0 3.1% 9.9% 18.8%
substitution through last
milestone year, %..............
NOX reductions since 2011 .............. 14.1% 15.8% 16.7% 11.1%
available for VOC substitution
in this milestone year, %......
NOX reductions since 2011 .............. 3.1% 6.8% 8.9% 9.6%
available for VOC substitution
in this milestone year, %......
NOX reductions since 2011 .............. 10.9% 9.0% 7.9% 1.5%
surplus after meeting VOC
substitution needs in this
milestone year, %..............
Total shortfall for RFP......... .............. 0% 0% 0% 0%
RFP met?........................ .............. Yes Yes Yes Yes
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: Table VI-2, 2018 SIP Update.
The revised RFP demonstration calculates future year VOC targets
from the 2011 baseline, consistent with CAA 182(c)(2)(B)(i), which
requires reductions of ``at least 3 percent of baseline emissions each
year,'' and it substitutes NOX reductions for VOC reductions
beginning in milestone year 2017 to meet VOC emission targets.
NOX substitution is permitted under EPA regulations at 40
CFR 51.1110(a)(2)(i)(C) and 40 CFR 51.1110(a)(2)(ii)(B). As stated in
the WOE in the CARB Staff Report, ``given Western Mojave's downwind
location from the only two extreme ozone nonattainment areas in the
country, it is expected that ozone formation would be limited by
available NOX emissions,'' meaning that NOX
reductions would be more effective at reducing ozone concentrations
than VOC reductions. For the WMD, CARB concluded that the revised RFP
demonstration meets the applicable requirements for each milestone year
as well as the attainment year.
3. The EPA's Review of the State's Submission
Consistent with the 2008 Ozone SRR, the EPA's final approval of the
15 percent ROP demonstration for the 1997 ozone NAAQS fulfills the
requirements of CAA section 182(b)(1) for WMD for the 2008 ozone
NAAQS.\105\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\105\ 82 FR 13086 (March 9, 2017).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
With respect to the RFP demonstration requirement, based on
[[Page 24821]]
our review of the emissions inventory documentation in the 2018 SIP
Update, we find that CARB and the District have used the most recent
planning and activity assumptions, emissions models, and methodologies
in developing the RFP baseline and milestone year emissions
inventories. We have also reviewed and verified the calculations in
Table VI-3 of the 2018 SIP Update. Furthermore, we find that
NOX emission reductions are as effective as VOC emission
reductions in reducing levels of ozone within the Western Mojave
Desert.\106\ For these reasons, we have determined that the 2018 SIP
Update demonstrates RFP in the 2017, 2020, and 2023 milestone years as
well as the 2026 milestone/attainment year, consistent with applicable
CAA requirements and EPA guidance. Therefore, we propose to approve the
RFP demonstration for the WMD for the 2008 ozone NAAQS under sections
172(c)(2) and 182(c)(2)(B) of the CAA and 40 CFR 51.1110(a)(2)(ii).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\106\ Additional evaluation of this matter is discussed in
Section V of the TSD supporting this notice.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
F. Transportation Control Strategies and Measures To Offset Emissions
Increases From Vehicle Miles Traveled
1. Statutory and Regulatory Requirements
Section 182(d)(1)(A) of the Act requires a state to submit a
revision for each area classified as Serious or above that identifies
and adopts specific enforceable transportation control strategies
(TCSs) and transportation control measures (TCMs) to offset any growth
in emissions from growth in vehicle miles traveled (VMT) or number of
vehicle trips in such area.\107\ Herein, we use ``VMT'' to refer to
vehicle miles traveled and refer to the related SIP requirement as the
``VMT emissions offset requirement.'' In addition, we refer to the SIP
revision intended to demonstrate compliance with the VMT emissions
offset requirement as the ``VMT emissions offset demonstration.''
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\107\ CAA section 182(d)(1)(A) includes three separate elements.
In short, under section 182(d)(1)(A), states are required to adopt
transportation control strategies and measures (1) to offset growth
in emissions from growth in VMT, and, (2) in combination with other
emission reduction requirements, to demonstrate RFP, and (3) to
demonstrate attainment. For more information on the EPA's
interpretation of the three elements of section 182(d)(1)(A), see 77
FR 58067, at 58068 (September 19, 2012) (proposed withdrawal of
approval of South Coast VMT emissions offset demonstrations).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
In Association of Irritated Residents v. EPA, the United States
Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit (``Ninth Circuit'') ruled that
additional TCMs are required whenever vehicle emissions are projected
to be higher than they would have been had VMT not increased, even when
aggregate vehicle emissions are actually decreasing.\108\ In response
to the Ninth Circuit's decision, the EPA issued a memorandum titled
``Guidance on Implementing Clean Air Act Section 182(d)(1)(A):
Transportation Control Measures and Transportation Control Strategies
to Offset Growth in Emissions Due to Growth in Vehicle Miles
Travelled'' (``August 2012 Guidance'').\109\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\108\ Association of Irritated Residents v. EPA, 632 F.3d. 584,
at 596-597 (9th Cir. 2011), reprinted as amended on January 27,
2012, 686 F.3d 668, further amended February 13, 2012 (``Association
of Irritated Residents'').
\109\ Memorandum from Karl Simon, Director, Transportation and
Climate Division, Office of Transportation and Air Quality, to Carl
Edlund, Director, Multimedia Planning and Permitting Division, EPA
Region VI, and Deborah Jordan, Director, Air Division, EPA Region
IX, August 30, 2012.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
The August 2012 Guidance discusses the meaning of TCSs and TCMs and
recommends that both TCSs and TCMs be included in the calculations made
for the purpose of determining the degree to which any hypothetical
growth in emissions due to growth in VMT should be offset. Generally,
TCSs encompass many types of controls (including, for example, motor
vehicle emissions limitations, I/M programs, alternative fuel programs,
other technology-based measures, and TCMs) that would fit within the
regulatory definition of ``control strategy.'' \110\ Such measures
include, but are not limited to, those listed in CAA section 108(f).
TCM is defined at 40 CFR 51.100(r) as meaning ``any measure that is
directed toward reducing emissions of air pollutants from
transportation sources,'' including, but not limited to, those listed
in section 108(f) of the CAA. TCMs generally refer to programs intended
to reduce VMT, the number of vehicle trips, or traffic congestion,
including, e.g., programs for improved public transit, designation of
certain lanes for passenger buses and high-occupancy vehicles, and trip
reduction ordinances.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\110\ See, e.g., 40 CFR 51.100(n). TCMs are defined at 40 CFR
51.100(r) as meaning any measure that is directed toward reducing
emissions of air pollutants from transportation sources.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
The August 2012 Guidance explains how states may demonstrate that
the VMT emissions offset requirement is satisfied in conformance with
the Ninth Circuit's ruling. The August 2012 Guidance recommends that
states estimate emissions for the nonattainment area's base year and
attainment year. One emissions inventory is developed for the base
year, and three different emissions inventory scenarios are developed
for the attainment year. For the attainment year, the state would
present three emissions estimates, two of which would represent
hypothetical emissions scenarios that would provide the basis to
identify the growth in emissions due solely to the growth in VMT, and
one that would represent projected actual motor vehicle emissions after
fully accounting for projected VMT growth and offsetting emissions
reductions obtained by all creditable TCSs and TCMs. See the August
2012 Guidance for specific details on how states might conduct the
calculations.
The base year on-road VOC emissions should be calculated using VMT
in that year and should reflect all enforceable TCSs and TCMs in place
in the base year. This would include vehicle emissions standards, state
and local control programs such as I/M programs or fuel rules, and any
additional implemented TCSs and TCMs that were already required by or
credited in the SIP as of that base year.
The first of the emissions calculations for the attainment year
would be based on the projected VMT and trips for that year and assume
that no new TCSs or TCMs beyond those already credited in the base year
inventory have been put in place since the base year. This calculation
demonstrates how emissions would hypothetically change if no new TCSs
or TCMs were implemented, and VMT and trips were allowed to grow at the
projected rate from the base year. This estimate would show the
potential for an increase in emissions due solely to growth in VMT and
trips. This represents a ``no action'' scenario. Emissions in the
attainment year in this scenario may be lower than those in the base
year due to fleet turnover; however, if VMT and/or numbers of vehicle
trips are projected to increase in the attainment year, emissions would
still likely be higher than if VMT had held constant.
The second of the attainment year's emissions calculations would
assume that no new TCSs or TCMs beyond those already credited have been
put in place since the base year, but it would also assume that there
was no growth in VMT and trips between the base year and attainment
year. This estimate reflects the hypothetical emissions level that
would have occurred if no further TCMs or TCSs had been put in place
and if VMT and trip levels had held constant since the base year. Like
the ``no action'' attainment year estimate described above, emissions
in the attainment year may be lower than those in the base year due to
fleet turnover, but in this case emissions would not be
[[Page 24822]]
influenced by any growth in VMT or trips. This emissions estimate would
reflect a ceiling on the attainment emissions that should be allowed to
occur under the statute as interpreted by the Ninth Circuit because it
shows what would happen under a scenario in which no offsetting TCSs or
TCMs have yet been put in place and VMT and trips are held constant
during the period from the area's base year to its attainment year.
This represents a ``VMT offset ceiling'' scenario. These two
hypothetical status quo estimates are necessary steps in identifying
the target level of emissions from which states determine whether
further TCMs or TCSs, beyond those that have been adopted and
implemented in reality, would need to be adopted and implemented in
order to fully offset any increase in emissions due solely to VMT and
trips identified in the ``no action'' scenario.
Finally, the state would present the emissions that are actually
expected to occur in the area's attainment year after taking into
account reductions from all enforceable TCSs and TCMs put in place
after the baseline year. This estimate would be based on the VMT and
trip levels expected to occur in the attainment year (i.e., the VMT and
trip levels from the first estimate) and all of the TCSs and TCMs
expected to be in place and for which the SIP will take credit in the
area's attainment year, including any TCMs and TCSs put in place since
the base year. This represents the ``projected actual'' attainment year
scenario. If this emissions estimate is less than or equal to the
emissions ceiling that was established in the second of the attainment
year calculations, the TCSs or TCMs for the attainment year would be
sufficient to fully offset the identified hypothetical growth in
emissions.
Alternatively, if the estimated projected actual attainment year
emissions are still greater than the ceiling that was established in
the second of the attainment year emissions calculations, even after
accounting for post-baseline year TCSs and TCMs, the state would need
to adopt and implement additional TCSs or TCMs to further offset the
growth in emissions. The additional TCSs or TCMs would need to bring
the actual emissions down to at least the ``had VMT and trips held
constant'' ceiling estimated in the second of the attainment year
calculations, in order to meet the VMT offset requirement of section
182(d)(1)(A) as interpreted by the Ninth Circuit.
2. Summary of the State's Submission
The VMT emissions offset demonstration for the WMD for the 2008
ozone NAAQS is contained in Chapter 3 of the Districts' Attainment
Plans.\111\ For the VMT emissions offset demonstration, CARB used
EMFAC2014, the latest EPA-approved motor vehicle emissions model for
California available at the time the 2016 WMD Attainment Plan was
developed.\112\ The EMFAC2014 model estimates the on-road emissions
from two combustion processes (i.e., running exhaust and start exhaust)
and four evaporative processes (i.e., hot soak, running losses, diurnal
losses, and resting losses). The EMFAC2014 model combines trip-based
VMT data from the regional transportation planning agency (i.e., SCAG),
starts data based on household travel surveys, and vehicle population
data from the California Department of Motor Vehicles. These sets of
data are combined with corresponding emission rates to calculate
emissions.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\111\ AVAQMD Attainment Plan, 23, and MDAQMD Attainment Plan,
25.
\112\ On August 15, 2019, the EPA approved and announced the
availability of EMFAC2017, the latest update to the EMFAC model for
use by State and local governments to meet CAA requirements. See 84
FR 41717.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Emissions from running exhaust, start exhaust, hot soak, and
running losses are a function of how much a vehicle is driven.
Emissions from these processes are thus directly related to VMT and
vehicle trips, and the analysis included these emissions in the
calculations that provide the basis for the WMD VMT emissions offset
demonstration. The analysis did not include emissions from resting loss
and diurnal loss processes in the analysis because such emissions are
related to vehicle population, not to VMT or vehicle trips, and thus
are not part of ``any growth in emissions from growth in vehicle miles
traveled or numbers of vehicle trips in such area'' under CAA section
182(d)(1)(A).
The WMD VMT emissions offset demonstration uses a 2012 base year.
The base year for VMT emissions offset demonstration purposes should
generally be the same base year used for nonattainment planning
purposes. In section III.A of this document, the EPA is proposing to
approve the 2012 base year inventory for the WMD for the purposes of
the 2008 ozone NAAQS, and thus, the selection of 2012 as the base year
for the WMD VMT emissions offset demonstration for the 2008 ozone NAAQS
is appropriate.
The WMD VMT emissions offset demonstration also includes the
previously described three different attainment year scenarios (i.e.,
no action, VMT offset ceiling, and projected actual). The 2016 WMD
Attainment Plan provides a demonstration of attainment of the 2008
ozone NAAQS in the WMD by the applicable attainment date, based on the
controlled 2026 emissions inventory. As described in section III.D of
this document, the EPA is proposing to approve the attainment
demonstration for the 2008 ozone NAAQS for the WMD, and thus, we find
the selection of year 2026 as the attainment year for the VMT emissions
offset demonstration for the 2008 ozone NAAQS to be acceptable.
Table 3 summarizes the relevant distinguishing parameters for each
of the emissions scenarios and shows CARB's corresponding VOC emissions
estimates for the demonstration for the 2008 ozone NAAQS.
Table 3--VMT Emissions Offset Inventory Scenarios and Results for 2008 Ozone NAAQS
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
VMT Starts Controls VOC emissions
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Scenario 1,000 miles/
Year day Year 1,000/day Year Tpd
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Base Year............................................... 2012 26,536 2012 4,470 2012 12.4
No Action............................................... 2026 34,724 2026 5,238 2012 6.5
VMT Offset Ceiling...................................... 2012 26,536 2012 4,470 2012 5.3
Actual Projected........................................ 2026 34,724 2026 5,238 2026 4.6
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: AVAQMD Attainment Plan, 23-27, and MDAQMD Attainment Plan, 26-29.
[[Page 24823]]
3. The EPA's Review of the State's Submission
Based on our review of the WMD VMT emissions offset demonstration
in the 2016 WMD Attainment Plan, we find CARB's analysis to be
consistent with our August 2012 Guidance and consistent with the
emissions and vehicle activity estimates provided by CARB in support of
the 2016 AQMP. We agree that the TCSs and TCMs in place for the area
are sufficient to offset the growth in emissions from growth in VMT and
vehicle trips in the WMD for the purposes of the 2008 8-hour ozone
standards. As such, we find that the WMD VMT emissions offset
demonstration complies with the VMT emissions offset requirement in CAA
section 182(d)(1)(A). Therefore, we propose approval of the WMD VMT
emissions offset demonstration portion of the 2016 WMD Attainment Plan.
G. Contingency Measures
1. Statutory and Regulatory Requirements
Under the CAA, SIPs for 8-hour ozone nonattainment areas classified
under subpart 2 as Moderate or above must include contingency measures
consistent with sections 172(c)(9) and 182(c)(9). Contingency measures
are additional controls or measures to be implemented in the event an
area fails to make RFP or to attain the NAAQS by the attainment date.
The SIP should contain trigger mechanisms for the contingency measures,
specify a schedule for implementation, and indicate that the measure
will be implemented without significant further action by the state or
the EPA.\113\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\113\ 70 FR 71612 (November 29, 2005). See also 2008 Ozone SRR,
80 FR 12264, 12285 (March 6, 2015).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Neither the CAA nor the EPA's implementing regulations establish a
specific level of emissions reductions that implementation of
contingency measures must achieve, but the EPA's 2008 Ozone SRR
reiterates the EPA's policy that contingency measures should generally
provide for emissions reductions approximately equivalent to one year's
worth progress, amounting to reductions of 3 percent of the baseline
emissions inventory for the nonattainment area.\114\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\114\ 80 FR 12264, 12285 (March 6, 2015).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
It has been the EPA's longstanding interpretation of CAA section
172(c)(9) that states may meet the contingency measure requirement by
relying on federal measures (e.g., federal mobile source measures based
on the incremental turnover of the motor vehicle fleet each year) and
local measures already scheduled for implementation that provide
emissions reductions in excess of those needed to provide for RFP or
expeditious attainment. The key is that the Act requires contingency
measures to provide for additional emissions reductions that are not
relied on for RFP or attainment and that are not included in the RFP or
attainment demonstrations as meeting part or all of the contingency
measure requirements. The purpose of contingency measures is to provide
continued emissions reductions while a plan is being revised to meet
the missed milestone or attainment date.
The EPA has approved numerous SIPs under this interpretation--i.e.,
SIPs that use as contingency measures one or more federal or local
measures that are in place and provide reductions in excess of the
reductions required by the attainment demonstration or RFP plan,\115\
and there is case law supporting the EPA's interpretation in this
regard.\116\ However, in Bahr v. EPA, the Ninth Circuit rejected the
EPA's interpretation of CAA section 172(c)(9) as allowing for early
implementation of contingency measures.\117\ The Ninth Circuit
concluded that contingency measures must take effect at the time the
area fails to make RFP or attain by the applicable attainment date, not
before.\118\ The D.C. Circuit recently reached a similar conclusion
regarding the contingency measure provisions in CAA sections 172(c)(9)
and 182(c)(9), in Sierra Club v. EPA.\119\ Following these decisions,
states cannot rely on early-implemented measures to comply with the
contingency measure requirements under CAA section 172(c)(9) and
182(c)(9).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\115\ See, e.g., 62 FR 15844 (April 3, 1997) (direct final rule
approving an Indiana ozone SIP revision); 62 FR 66279 (December 18,
1997) (final rule approving an Illinois ozone SIP revision); 66 FR
30811 (June 8, 2001) (direct final rule approving a Rhode Island
ozone SIP revision); 66 FR 586 (January 3, 2001) (final rule
approving District of Columbia, Maryland, and Virginia ozone SIP
revisions); and 66 FR 634 (January 3, 2001) (final rule approving a
Connecticut ozone SIP revision).
\116\ See, e.g., LEAN v. EPA, 382 F.3d 575 (5th Cir. 2004)
(upholding contingency measures that were previously required and
implemented where they were in excess of the attainment
demonstration and RFP SIP).
\117\ Bahr v. EPA, 836 F.3d at 1235-1237 (9th Cir. 2016)
(``Bahr'').
\118\ Id. at 1235-1237.
\119\ Sierra Club v. EPA, 985 F.3d 1055 (D.C. Cir. 2021)
(``Sierra Club'').
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
2. Summary of the State's Submission
The Districts and CARB had largely prepared the 2016 WMD Attainment
Plan prior to the Bahr and Sierra Club decisions; therefore, the plan
relies solely upon surplus emissions reductions from already
implemented control measures in the RFP milestone years to demonstrate
compliance with the RFP milestone contingency measures requirements of
CAA sections 172(c)(9) and 182(c)(9).\120\ The plan also demonstrates
compliance with the attainment contingency measures requirements using
surplus emissions reductions (in the year after the attainment year),
and separately identifies use of the State's enhanced I/M program as an
attainment contingency measure.\121\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\120\ AQAQMD Attainment Plan, 20; MDAQMD Attainment Plan, 22.
\121\ Id. AQAQMD Attainment Plan, 18; MDAQMD Attainment Plan,
20.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
In the 2018 SIP Update, CARB revised the RFP demonstration for the
2008 ozone NAAQS for the WMD and recalculated the extent of surplus
emission reductions in the milestone years. Consistent with the Bahr
decision (and the later Sierra Club decision), the 2018 SIP Update does
not rely on the surplus or incremental emissions reductions to comply
with the contingency measures requirements of sections 172(c)(9) and
182(c)(9) but instead documents the extent to which future baseline
emissions would provide surplus emissions reductions beyond those
required to meet applicable contingency measure requirements, to
provide context for determining the magnitude of the contingency
measures needed for the 2008 ozone NAAQS.
The 2018 SIP Update identifies one year's worth of RFP as
approximately 1.5 tpd of VOC. The 2018 SIP Update estimates surplus
NOX reductions for RFP as ranging from approximately 10.7
tpd in 2017 to 7.8 tpd in 2023, and estimates that implementation of
the state control measures will result in an additional 0.2 tpd VOC and
1.6 tpd of NOX emissions reductions occuring in the year
after the attainment year.\122\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\122\ 2018 SIP Update, Chapter VI, Tables VI-4, VI-5, and VI-6.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
In subsequent communications, CARB has clarified that the proposed
contingency measure would involve implementation of enhanced I/M
specifically in those areas of the WMD subject to MDAQMD jurisdiction
that are currently subject only to basic I/M requirements.\123\ As
described by the MDAQMD, within 30 days of a finding by the EPA that
the WMD has either failed to meet an RFP milestone for the 2008 ozone
NAAQS or failed to attain the 2008 ozone NAAQS by the
[[Page 24824]]
attainment deadline, the MDAQMD Executive Officer will transmit a
formal letter to the California Bureau of Automotive Repair (BAR)
requesting implementation of the enhanced I/M program throughout the
entirety of the portion of the WMD that is subject to the District's
jurisdiction. Upon receiving the District's letter, BAR would initiate
the program and notify the relevant stakeholders of the updated
requirements in the area. This procedure is described in section
44003(c) of the California Health and Safety Code, and no additional
regulations would need to be adopted.\124\ CARB estimates that
implementation of the enhanced I/M program for this region will result
in additional emissions reductions of 0.03 tpd of VOC and 0.04 tpd of
NOX.\125\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\123\ Email dated November 20, 2020, from Ariel Fideldy (CARB)
to Tom Kelly (EPA), Subject: West Mojave Desert Contingency
Measures.
\124\ Letter dated March 29, 2021, from Brad Poiriez, Executive
Officer, MDAQMD, to Richard Corey, Executive Officer, CARB. The EPA
approved California Health and Safety Code section 44003(c) into the
California SIP at 75 FR 38023 (July 1, 2010).
\125\ Letter dated April 9, 2021, from Michael Benjamin, Chief,
Air Quality Planning and Science Division, CARB, to Deborah Jordan,
Acting Regional Administrator, EPA Region IX. CARB indicates that
these figures represent conservative estimates of the potential
emissions reductions that would result from implementation of the
contingency measure, because they are derived from residential
populations that may underrepresent the actual vehicle populations
located within the zip codes currently subject to basic I/M. See
Attachment A to letter dated April 9, 2021, from Michael Benjamin,
Chief, Air Quality Planning and Science Division, CARB, to Deborah
Jordan, Acting Regional Administrator, EPA Region IX.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
The MDAQMD has committed to submit a Board resolution further
detailing the circumstances, timing, and procedure for implementing
this contingency measure, within eleven months of the EPA's final
conditional approval of the contingency measures element of the 2016
WMD Attainment Plan.\126\ CARB, in turn, has committed to submit the
Board resolution to the EPA for SIP approval within 12 months of the
EPA's final conditional approval.\127\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\126\ Letter dated March 29, 2021, from Brad Poiriez, Executive
Officer, MDAQMD, to Richard Corey, Executive Officer, CARB.
\127\ Letter dated April 9, 2021, from Michael Benjamin, Chief,
Air Quality Planning and Science Division, CARB, to Deborah Jordan,
Acting Regional Administrator, EPA Region IX.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
3. The EPA's Review of the State's Submission
Sections 172(c)(9) and 182(c)(9) of the CAA require contingency
measures to address potential failure to achieve RFP milestones or
failure to attain the NAAQS by the applicable attainment date. To
evaluate the contingency measure element of the 2016 WMD Attainment
Plan, we find it useful to distinguish between contingency measures to
address potential failure to achieve RFP milestones (``RFP contingency
measures'') and contingency measures to address potential failure to
attain the NAAQS (``attainment contingency measures'').
With respect to the RFP contingency measure requirement, we have
reviewed the surplus emissions estimates in each of the RFP milestone
years, as shown in the 2018 SIP Update, and find that the calculations
are correct. Therefore, we agree that the emission estimates from the
2018 SIP Update provide surplus reductions well beyond those necessary
to demonstrate RFP in the RFP milestone years. While such surplus
emissions reductions in the RFP milestone years do not represent
contingency measures themselves, we believe they are relevant in
evaluating the adequacy of RFP contingency measures that are submitted
(or will be submitted) to meet the requirements of sections 172(c)(9)
and 182(c)(9).
In this case, the MDAQMD and CARB have committed to develop, adopt,
and submit a Board resolution further detailing the circumstances,
timing, and procedure for implementing enhanced I/M requirements in the
portion of the WMD that is currently subject to basic I/M, should the
WMD fail to meet an RFP milestone. The specific commitment of the
MDAQMD upon an RFP milestone failure (i.e., changing from basic to
enhanced I/M) complies with the requirements in CAA sections 172(c)(9)
and 182(c)(9) because it would be undertaken if the area fails to meet
an RFP milestone and would take effect without further significant
action by the District, the State, or the EPA.\128\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\128\ Section 182(c)(3) of the CAA requires states with ozone
nonattainment areas classified under subpart 2 as Serious or above
to implement an enhanced motor vehicle I/M program in each urbanized
area within the nonattainment area. Section 182(c)(3) further
explains that urbanized areas are ``defined by the Bureau of the
Census, with a 1980 population of 200,000 or more.'' Because parts
of the MDAQMD within the WMD were not considered urbanized areas in
1980, only part of the WMD is subject to enhanced I/M. All of the
area under the jurisdiction of the AVAQMD is subject to enhanced I/
M.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
To assess the adequacy of the RFP contingency measure (once adopted
and submitted), we next consider the magnitude of emissions reductions
the measure would provide if triggered. Neither the CAA nor the EPA's
implementing regulations for the ozone NAAQS establish a specific
amount of emissions reductions that implementation of contingency
measures must achieve, but we generally expect that contingency
measures should provide for emissions reductions equivalent to
approximately one year's worth of RFP, which, for ozone, amounts to
reductions of 3 percent of the baseline emissions inventory for the
nonattainment area. For the 2008 ozone NAAQS in the WMD, one year's
worth of RFP is approximately 1.5 tpd of VOC, or 3.0 tpd of
NOX reductions, or a combination of the two calculated on a
percentage basis.\129\ In its commitment letter, CARB conservatively
estimates the potential additional emissions reductions from the
contingency measure commitments at 0.03 tpd of VOC and 0.04 tpd of
NOX. While these amounts collectively reflect less than one
year's worth of RFP, the 2018 SIP Update provides the larger SIP
planning context with which to judge the adequacy of the to-be-
submitted District contingency measures, by calculating the surplus
emissions reductions estimated to be achieved in the RFP milestone
years. The estimates of surplus NOX reductions range from
10.7 to 7.8 tpd, depending on the RFP year, which represents more than
twice one year's worth of progress (3.0 tpd of NOX).\130\
The surplus reflects already implemented regulations and is primarily
the result of vehicle turnover, which refers to the ongoing replacement
by individuals, companies, and government agencies of older, more
polluting vehicles and engines with newer vehicles and engines. In
light of these surplus NOX emissions reductions in the RFP
milestone years, the emissions reductions from the committed
contingency measure are adequate to meet the contingency measure
requirements of the CAA with respect to RFP milestones.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\129\ The 2011 baseline for VOC and NOX is 48.7 tpd
and 98.4 tpd, respectively, as shown in table VI-1 of the 2018 SIP
Update. Three percent of these baselines is 1.5 tpd of VOC and 3.0
tpd of NOX.
\130\ 2018 SIP Update, Table VI-5.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
For attainment contingency measure purposes, we evaluate the
emissions reductions from the District's contingency measures in the
context of the expected reduction in emissions within the WMD in the
year following the attainment year, relative to those occurring in the
attainment year. In 2027, VOC and NOX emissions for the WMD
are expected to be approximately 0.2 and 1.6 tpd, respectively, lower
than the emissions in 2026. Considered together, the continuing
reductions from already-implemented measures and the emissions
reductions from the MDAQMD's contingency measure provide for emissions
reductions near to, but below, one year's worth of progress.\131\
Therefore, we find that the
[[Page 24825]]
contingency measures described in the MDAQMD's and CARB's commitment
letters would provide sufficient emissions reductions to satisfy the
attainment contingency measures requirement, even though reductions
from the measures would be lower than one year's worth of RFP.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\131\ Combined reductions (0.23 tpd VOC and 1.64 tpd
NOX) represent 70 percent of one year's RFP (15.3 percent
of 1.5 tpd VOC; 54.7 percent of 3.0 tpd NOX). Further
emissions reductions are projected to occur in upwind areas in the
year following the attainment year (see, e.g., 2016 AQMP, Chapter
3), and we anticipate that these reductions will drive additional
reductions in ozone concentrations in the WMD in this period,
consistent with the strong influence of upwind emissions on
nonattainment in the WMD.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
For these reasons, we propose to conditionally approve the
contingency measures element of the 2016 WMD attainment plan, as
supplemented by the commitment from the MDAQMD and CARB to adopt and
submit an MDAQMD Board resolution detailing the circumstances, timing,
and procedure for implementing the contingency measure requirements of
CAA sections 172(c)(9) and 182(c)(9). Our proposed approval is
conditional because it relies upon specific commitments from MDAQMD and
CARB. Conditional approvals are authorized under CAA section 110(k)(4).
H. Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets for Transportation Conformity
1. Statutory and Regulatory Requirements
Section 176(c) of the CAA requires federal actions in nonattainment
and maintenance areas to conform to the SIP's goals of eliminating or
reducing the severity and number of violations of the NAAQS and
achieving expeditious attainment of the standards. Conformity to the
SIP's goals means that such actions will not: (1) Cause or contribute
to violations of a NAAQS, (2) worsen the severity of an existing
violation, or (3) delay timely attainment of any NAAQS or any interim
milestone.
Actions involving Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) or Federal
Transit Administration (FTA) funding or approval are subject to the
EPA's transportation conformity rule, codified at 40 CFR part 93,
subpart A. Under this rule, metropolitan planning organizations (MPO)
in nonattainment and maintenance areas coordinate with state and local
air quality and transportation agencies, the EPA, the FHWA, and the FTA
to demonstrate that an area's regional transportation plans and
transportation improvement programs conform to the applicable SIP. This
demonstration is typically done by showing that estimated emissions
from existing and planned highway and transit systems are less than or
equal to the motor vehicle emissions budgets (MVEBs or ``budgets'')
contained in all control strategy SIPs. Budgets are generally
established for specific years and specific pollutants or precursors.
Ozone plans should identify budgets for on-road emissions of ozone
precursors (NOX and VOC) in the area for each RFP milestone
year and, if the plan demonstrates attainment, the attainment
year.\132\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\132\ 40 CFR 93.102(b)(2)(i).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
For motor vehicle emissions budgets to be approvable, they must
meet, at a minimum, the EPA's adequacy criteria (40 CFR 93.118(e)(4)
and (5)) and be approvable under all pertinent SIP requirements. To
meet these requirements, the MVEBs must be consistent with the
approvable attainment and RFP demonstrations and reflect all of the
motor vehicle control measures contained in the attainment and RFP
demonstrations.\133\ Budgets may include a safety margin representing
the difference between projected emissions and the total amount of
emissions estimated to satisfy any requirements for attainment or RFP.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\133\ 40 CFR 93.118(e)(4)(iii), (iv) and (v). For more
information on the transportation conformity requirements and
applicable policies on MVEBs, please visit our transportation
conformity website at: https://www.epa.gov/otaq/stateresources/transconf/index.htm.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
The EPA's process for determining adequacy of a MVEB consists of
three basic steps: (1) Providing public notification of a SIP
submission; (2) providing the public the opportunity to comment on the
MVEB during a public comment period; and, (3) making a finding of
adequacy or inadequacy.\134\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\134\ 40 CFR 93.118.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
2. Summary of the State's Submission
The 2016 WMD Attainment Plan includes budgets for the 2018, 2021,
and 2024 RFP milestone years, and a 2026 attainment year. The budgets
for 2018, 2021, and 2024 were derived from the 2012 RFP baseline year
and the associated RFP milestone years. These budgets are affected by
the South Coast II decision vacating the alternative baseline year
provision, and therefore, the EPA has not previously acted on the
budgets.
The 2018 SIP Update revised the RFP demonstration consistent with
the South Coast II decision (i.e., by using a 2011 RFP baseline year)
and identifies new budgets for the WMD for VOC and NOX for
each updated RFP milestone year through 2026. The budgets in the 2018
SIP Update replace the budgets contained in the 2016 WMD Attainment
Plan. Like the budgets in the 2016 WMD Attainment Plan, the budgets in
the 2018 SIP Update were calculated using EMFAC2014, the version of
CARB's EMFAC model approved by the EPA for estimating emissions from
on-road vehicles operating in California at the time the 2016 WMD
Attainment Plan and 2018 SIP Update were developed. The budgets in the
2018 SIP Update reflect updated VMT estimates from SCAG's 2016-2040
Regional Transportation Plan/Sustainable Communities Strategy,
Amendment 2, adopted in July 2017, and align with the emissions
inventory, RFP and attainment demonstrations in the 2016 WMD Attainment
Plan. Additionally, the budgets in the 2018 SIP Update are more precise
because they are rounded up to the nearest tenth of a tpd, instead of
the nearest whole number.\135\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\135\ For instance, the 2016 WMD Attainment Plan estimates that
2026 on-road vehicle emissions (summer planning inventory) would be
7 tpd for VOC and 11 tpd for NOX. See Appendix A, A-23
through A-26. The corresponding budgets from the 2018 SIP Update are
6.2 tpd for VOC and 10.2 tpd for NOX. See Table VI-3 and
surrounding discussion in Section V of the TSD for this action for
additional detail.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
The conformity budgets for NOX and VOC in the 2018 SIP
Update for the WMD are provided in Table 4 below.
Table 4--West Mojave Desert Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets in the 2018 SIP Update
[tpd, average summer weekday] a
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2020 2023 2026
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
VOC NOX VOC NOX VOC NOX
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
On-Road Inventory....................................... 7.87 17.57 6.73 10.98 5.98 9.79
Safety Margin........................................... .............. .............. .............. .............. 0.2 0.4
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total............................................... 7.87 17.57 6.73 10.98 6.18 10.19
[[Page 24826]]
MVEBs \b\............................................... 7.9 17.6 6.8 11.0 6.2 10.2
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
\a\ Source: Table VI-3 from the 2018 SIP Update.
\b\ Rounded up to the next tenth of a ton.
The submittal letters for both the 2016 WMD Attainment Plan and the
2018 SIP Update include a request from CARB that the EPA limit the
duration of our approval of the budgets to last only until the
effective date of future EPA adequacy findings for replacement
budgets.\136\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\136\ Letter dated April 9, 2021, from Michael Benjamin, Chief,
Air Quality Planning and Science Division, CARB, to Deborah Jordan,
Acting Regional Administrator, EPA Region IX, and letter dated
December 5, 2018, from Richard Corey, Executive Officer, CARB, to
Mike Stoker, Regional Administrator, EPA Region IX.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
3. The EPA's Review of the State's Submission
As part of our review of the approvability of the budgets in the
2018 SIP Update, we have evaluated the budgets using our adequacy
criteria in 40 CFR 93.118(e)(4) and (5). We will complete the adequacy
review concurrently with our final action on the 2016 WMD Attainment
Plan. The EPA is not required under its transportation conformity rule
to find budgets adequate prior to proposing approval of them.\137\
Today, the EPA is announcing that the adequacy process for these
budgets begins and the public has 30 days to comment on their adequacy,
per the transportation conformity regulation at 40 CFR 93.118(f)(2)(i)
and (ii).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\137\ Under the transportation conformity regulations, the EPA
may review the adequacy of submitted motor vehicle emission budgets
simultaneously with the EPA's approval or disapproval of the
submitted implementation plan. 40 CFR 93.118(f)(2).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
As documented in Table 5 of section V of the EPA's TSD for this
proposal, we preliminarily conclude that the budgets in the 2018 SIP
Update for the West Mojave Desert meet each adequacy criterion. While
adequacy and approval are two separate actions, reviewing the budgets
in terms of the adequacy criteria informs the EPA's decision to propose
to approve the budgets. We have completed our detailed review of the
2016 WMD Attainment Plan and the 2018 SIP Update, and we are proposing
herein to approve the attainment and RFP demonstrations. We have also
reviewed the budgets in the 2018 SIP Update and found that they are
consistent with the attainment and RFP demonstrations for which we are
proposing approval, are based on control measures that have already
been adopted and implemented, and meet all other applicable statutory
and regulatory requirements, including the adequacy criteria in 40 CFR
93.1118(e)(4) and (5). Therefore, we are proposing to approve the 2023
and 2026 budgets in the 2018 SIP Update. At the point when we finalize
our adequacy process or approve the budgets for the 2008 ozone NAAQS in
the 2018 SIP Update as proposed (whichever occurs first; note that they
could also occur concurrently per 40 CFR 93.118(f)(2)(iii)), then these
budgets will replace the budgets that we previously found adequate for
use in transportation conformity determinations.\138\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\138\ We found adequate the budgets from the Antelope Valley-
Western Mojave Desert 8-hour Ozone Early Progress Plan (February
2008) for the 1997 ozone NAAQS at 73 FR 24594 (May 5, 2008). The
budgets in Table VI-3 of the 2018 SIP Update for the 2008 ozone
NAAQS are lower than the corresponding budgets approved for the 1997
ozone NAAQS. The current budgets of 22 tpd for VOC and 77 tpd for
NOX for all years, would be replaced by budgets of 6.8
tpd for VOC and 11.0 tpd for NOX in 2023 and 6.2 tpd for
VOC and 10.2 tpd for NOX in 2026.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Under our transportation conformity rule, as a general matter, once
budgets are approved, they cannot be superseded by revised budgets
submitted for the same CAA purpose and the same year(s) addressed by
the previously approved SIP submittal until the EPA approves the
revised budgets as a SIP revision. In other words, as a general matter,
such approved budgets cannot be superseded by revised budgets found
adequate, but rather only through approval of the revised budgets,
unless the EPA specifies otherwise in its approval of a SIP by limiting
the duration of the approval to last only until subsequently submitted
budgets are found adequate.\139\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\139\ 40 CFR 93.118(e)(1).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
In this instance, CARB's submittal letters transmitting the 2016
WMD Attainment Plan and 2018 SIP Update requested that we limit the
duration of our approval to the effective date of an EPA adequacy
finding for subsequently submitted budgets, and on April 9, 2021, CARB
provided further explanation for its request. Generally, we will
consider a state's request to limit an approval of a budget only if the
request includes the following elements: \140\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\140\ 67 FR 69139 (November 15, 2002) (final action limiting our
prior approval of budgets in certain California SIPs).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
An acknowledgement and explanation as to why the budgets
under consideration have become outdated or deficient;
A commitment to update the budgets as part of a
comprehensive SIP update; and
A request that the EPA limit the duration of its approval
to the time when new budgets have been found to be adequate for
transportation conformity purposes.
CARB's request includes an explanation for why the budgets have
become, or will become, outdated or deficient. In short, CARB requested
that we limit the duration of the approval of the budgets in light of
the EPA's recent approval of EMFAC2017, an updated version of the
EMFAC2014 model used for the budgets in the 2018 SIP Update. EMFAC2017
updates vehicle mix and emissions data of the previously approved
version of the model, EMFAC2014.
In light of the approval of EMFAC2017, CARB requests that the
budgets from the 2016 WMD Attainment Plan, for which we are proposing
approval in this action, will be revised using EMFAC2017 in 2022.
CARB's request also states, ``without the ability to replace the
applicable transportation conformity emissions budgets with submitted
budgets found adequate using the budget adequacy process, the benefits
of using the updated data may not be realized for a year or more after
the SIPs are submitted, due to the SIP approval process.''
We note that CARB has not committed to update the budgets as part
of a comprehensive SIP update, but as a practical matter, CARB must
submit a SIP revision that includes updated demonstrations as well as
the updated budgets to meet the adequacy criteria in
[[Page 24827]]
40 CFR 93.118(e)(4) for the 2015 ozone NAAQS in 2022,\141\ and thus, we
do not need a specific commitment for such a plan at this time. For the
reasons provided above, and in light of CARB's explanation for why the
budgets will become outdated and should be replaced upon an adequacy
finding for updated budgets, we propose to limit the duration of our
approval of the budgets in the 2018 SIP Update until we find revised
budgets based on EMFAC2017 to be adequate.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\141\ Under 40 CFR 93.118(e)(4), the EPA will not find a budget
in a submitted SIP to be adequate unless, among other criteria, the
budgets, when considered together with all other emissions sources,
are consistent with applicable requirements for RFP and attainment.
40 CFR 93.118(e)(4)(iv).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
I. Other Clean Air Act Requirements Applicable to Severe Ozone
Nonattainment Areas
In addition to the requirements discussed above, title 1, subpart D
of the CAA includes other provisions applicable to Severe ozone
nonattainment areas, such as the WMD. We describe these provisions and
their current status below for informational purposes only.
1. Enhanced Vehicle Inspection and Maintenance Programs
Section 182(c)(3) of the CAA requires states with ozone
nonattainment areas classified under subpart 2 as Serious or above to
implement an enhanced motor vehicle I/M program in each urbanized area
within the nonattainment area. As discussed in Section III.G.3 of this
document, Section 182(c)(3) further explains that urbanized areas are
``defined by the Bureau of the Census, with a 1980 population of
200,000 or more.'' Because parts of the MDAQMD within the WMD were not
considered urbanized areas in 1980, only part of the WMD is subject to
enhanced I/M.\142\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\142\ As described in section III.G.2 of this document, the
State has committed to adopt a contingency measure to implement
enhanced I/M throughout the portion of the WMD that is currently
subject to basic I/M, in the event that the area fails to meet an
RFP milestone or to attain the 2008 NAAQS by the attainment date.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Consistent with the 2008 Ozone SRR, no new I/M programs are
currently required for nonattainment areas for the 2008 ozone
NAAQS.\143\ The EPA previously approved the California I/M program in
the West Mojave Desert as meeting the requirements of the CAA and
applicable EPA regulations for enhanced I/M programs.\144\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\143\ 2008 Ozone SRR, 80 FR 12264, at 12283 (March 6, 2015).
\144\ 75 FR 38023 (July 1, 2010).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
2. New Source Review Rules
Section 182(a)(2)(C) of the CAA requires states to develop SIP
revisions containing permit programs for each of its ozone
nonattainment areas. The SIP revisions are to include requirements for
permits in accordance with CAA sections 172(c)(5) and 173 for the
construction and operation of each new or modified major stationary
source for VOC and NOX anywhere in the nonattainment
area.\145\ The 2008 Ozone SRR includes provisions and guidance for
nonattainment new source review (NSR) programs.\146\ We will address
the NSR requirements for the 2008 ozone NAAQS in the WMD in a separate
action.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\145\ See also CAA sections 182(e).
\146\ 80 FR 12264 (March 6, 2015).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
3. Clean Fuels Fleet Program
Sections 182(c)(4)(A) and 246 of the CAA require California to
submit to the EPA for approval into the SIP measures to implement a
Clean Fuels Fleet Program. Section 182(c)(4)(B) of the CAA allows
states to opt out of the federal clean-fuel vehicle fleet program by
submitting a SIP revision consisting of a program or programs that will
result in at least equivalent long-term reductions in ozone precursors
and toxic air emissions.
In 1994, CARB submitted a SIP revision to the EPA to opt out of the
federal clean-fuel fleet program and included a demonstration that
California's low-emissions vehicle program achieved emissions
reductions at least as large as would be achieved by the federal
program. The EPA approved the SIP revision to opt out of the federal
program on August 27, 1999.\147\ There have been no changes to the
federal Clean Fuels Fleet program since the EPA approved the California
SIP revision to opt out of the federal program, and thus, no
corresponding changes to the SIP are required. Thus, we find that the
California SIP revision to opt out of the federal program, as approved
in 1999, meets the requirements of CAA sections 182(c)(4)(A) and 246
for the WMD for the 2008 ozone standards.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\147\ 64 FR 46849 (August 27, 1999).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
4. Gasoline Vapor Recovery
Section 182(b)(3) of the CAA requires states to submit a SIP
revision by November 15, 1992, that requires owners or operators of
gasoline dispensing systems to install and operate gasoline vehicle
refueling vapor recovery (``Stage II'') systems in ozone nonattainment
areas classified as Moderate and above. California's ozone
nonattainment areas implemented Stage II vapor recovery well before the
passage of the CAA Amendments of 1990.\148\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\148\ General Preamble, 57 FR 13498 at 13514 (April 16, 1992).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Section 202(a)(6) of the CAA requires the EPA to promulgate
standards requiring motor vehicles to be equipped with onboard
refueling vapor recovery (ORVR) systems. The EPA promulgated the first
set of ORVR system regulations in 1994 for phased implementation on
vehicle manufacturers, and since the end of 2006, essentially all new
gasoline-powered light- and medium-duty vehicles are ORVR-
equipped.\149\ Section 202(a)(6) also authorizes the EPA to waive the
SIP requirement under CAA section 182(b)(3) for installation of Stage
II vapor recovery systems after such time as the EPA determines that
ORVR systems are in widespread use throughout the motor vehicle fleet.
Effective May 16, 2012, the EPA waived the requirement of CAA section
182(b)(3) for Stage II vapor recovery systems in ozone nonattainment
areas regardless of classification.\150\ Thus, a SIP submittal meeting
CAA section 182(b)(3) is not required for the 2008 ozone NAAQS.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\149\ 77 FR 28772, at 28774 (May 16, 2012).
\150\ 40 CFR 51.126(b).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
While a SIP submittal meeting CAA section 182(b)(3) is not required
for the 2008 ozone NAAQS, under California state law (i.e., Health and
Safety Code section 41954), CARB is required to adopt procedures and
performance standards for controlling gasoline emissions from gasoline
marketing operations, including transfer and storage operations. State
law also authorizes CARB, in cooperation with local air districts, to
certify vapor recovery systems, to identify defective equipment and to
develop test methods. CARB has adopted numerous revisions to its vapor
recovery program regulations and continues to rely on its vapor
recovery program to achieve emissions reductions in ozone nonattainment
areas in California.
In the WMD, the installation and operation of CARB-certified vapor
recovery equipment is required and enforced through AVAQMD Rule 461,
``Gasoline Transfer and Dispensing,'' approved into the SIP on October
21, 2008, and MDAQMD Rule 461, ``Gasoline Transfer and Dispensing,''
approved into the SIP on May 1, 2020.\151\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\151\ 76 FR 5277 (January 31, 2011) and 85 FR 25293 (May 1,
2020).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
5. Enhanced Ambient Air Monitoring
Section 182(c)(1) of the CAA requires that all ozone nonattainment
areas
[[Page 24828]]
classified as Serious or above implement measures to enhance and
improve monitoring for ambient concentrations of ozone, NOX,
and VOC, and to improve monitoring of emissions of NOX and
VOC. The enhanced monitoring network for ozone is referred to as the
photochemical assessment monitoring station (PAMS) network. The EPA
promulgated final PAMS regulations on February 12, 1993.\152\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\152\ 58 FR 8452 (February 12, 1993).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
On November 10, 1993, CARB submitted to the EPA a SIP revision
addressing the PAMS network for six ozone nonattainment areas in
California, including the WMD, to meet the enhanced monitoring
requirements of CAA section 182(c)(1). The EPA determined that the PAMS
SIP revision met all applicable requirements for enhanced monitoring
and the EPA PAMS regulations and approved the PAMS submittal into the
California SIP.\153\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\153\ 82 FR 45191 (September 28, 2017). This action addressed 1-
hour ozone nonattainment areas. The area identified as Southeast
Desert Modified Air Quality Management Area for the 1-hour ozone
NAAQS has been split into two separate nonattainment areas for the
1997 and 2008 ozone NAAQS, the WMD and Riverside County (Coachella
Valley).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Prior to 2006, the EPA's ambient air monitoring regulations in 40
CFR part 58, ``Ambient Air Quality Surveillance,'' set forth specific
SIP requirements (see former 40 CFR 52.20). In 2006, the EPA
significantly revised and reorganized 40 CFR part 58.\154\ Under
revised 40 CFR part 58, SIP revisions are no longer required; rather,
compliance with EPA monitoring regulations is established through
review of required annual monitoring network plans.\155\ The 2008 Ozone
SRR made no changes to these requirements.\156\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\154\ 71 FR 61236 (October 17, 2006).
\155\ 40 CFR 58.2(b) now provides that, ``The requirements
pertaining to provisions for an air quality surveillance system in
the SIP are contained in this part.''
\156\ The 2008 ozone SRR addresses PAMS-related requirements at
80 FR 12264, 12291 (March 6, 2015).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
The 2016 WMD Attainment Plan does not specifically address the
enhanced ambient air monitoring requirement in CAA section 182(c)(1).
However, we note that CARB includes the ambient monitoring network
within the WMD in its annual monitoring network plan that is submitted
to the EPA, and that we have approved the most recent annual monitoring
network plan (``Annual Network Plan Covering Monitoring Operations in
25 California Air Districts, July 2020'' or ``2018 ANP''), which
includes the enhanced ambient air monitoring element for the WMD.\157\
Based on our review and approval of the 2020 ANP with respect to the
WMD and our earlier approval of the PAMS SIP revision, we propose to
find that CARB, AVAQMD and MDAQMD meet the enhanced monitoring
requirements under CAA section 182(c)(1) for the WMD with respect to
the 2008 ozone NAAQS.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\157\ The EPA approved the 2020 ANP in a letter dated November
5, 2020, from Gwen Yoshimura, Manager, Air Quality Analysis Office,
EPA Region IX, to Ravi Ramalingam, Chief, Consumer Products and Air
Quality Assessment Branch, Air Quality Planning and Science
Division, CARB.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
6. CAA Section 185 Fee Program
Section 185 of the CAA requires that the SIP for each Severe and
Extreme ozone nonattainment area provide that, if the area fails to
attain by its applicable attainment date, each major stationary source
of VOC and NOX located in the area shall pay a fee to the
state as a penalty for such failure for each calendar year beginning
after the attainment date, until the area is redesignated as an
attainment area for ozone. States are not yet required to submit a SIP
revision that meets the requirements of CAA section 185 for the 2008
ozone NAAQS.\158\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\158\ See 40 CFR 51.1117. For the WMD, a section 185 SIP
revision for the 2008 ozone standards will be due on July 20, 2022.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
IV. Proposed Action
For the reasons discussed in this notice, under CAA section
110(k)(3), the EPA is proposing to approve as a revision to the
California SIP the following portions of the 2016 WMD Attainment Plan
for the 2008 ozone NAAQS, submitted by CARB on June 2, 2017, and the
2018 SIP Update, submitted on December 11, 2018:
Base year emissions inventory element in the 2016 WMD
Attainment Plan as meeting the requirements of CAA sections 172(c)(3)
and 182(a)(1) and 40 CFR 51.1115;
Emissions statement element in the 2016 WMD Attainment
Plan as meeting the requirements of CAA section 182(a)(3)(B) and 40 CFR
51.1102;
RACM demonstration element in the 2016 WMD Attainment
Plan, as meeting the requirements of CAA section 172(c)(1) and 40 CFR
51.1112(c);
Attainment demonstration element in the 2016 WMD
Attainment Plan as meeting the requirements of CAA section 182(c)(2)(A)
and 40 CFR 51.1108;
RFP demonstration element in the 2018 SIP Update as
meeting the requirements of CAA sections 172(c)(2), 182(b)(1), and
182(c)(2)(B), and 40 CFR 51.1110(a)(2)(ii);
VMT emissions offset demonstration element in the 2016 WMD
Attainment Plan as meeting the requirements of CAA section 182(d)(1)(A)
and 40 CFR 51.1102; and
Motor vehicle emissions budgets in the 2018 SIP Update for
the 2023 RFP milestone year and the 2026 attainment year (see Table 4
of this notice) because they are consistent with the RFP and attainment
demonstrations proposed for approval herein and meet the other criteria
in 40 CFR 93.118(e).
We are also proposing to find that the:
California SIP revision to opt out of the federal Clean
Fuels Fleet Program meets the requirements of CAA sections 182(c)(4)(A)
and 246 and 40 CFR 51.1102 with respect to the WMD;
Enhanced monitoring in the WMD meets the requirements of
CAA section 182(c)(1) and 40 CFR 51.1102; and
Enhanced vehicle inspection and maintenance program
element in the WMD meets the requirements of CAA section 182(c)(3) and
40 CFR 51.1102.
Lastly, we are proposing, under CAA section 110(k)(4), to
conditionally approve the contingency measure element of the 2016 WMD
Attainment Plan as meeting the requirements of CAA sections 172(c)(9)
and 182(c)(9) for RFP contingency measures. Our proposed approval is
based on commitments by the District and CARB to supplement the element
through submission, as a SIP revision (within one year of final
conditional approval action), a MDAQMD Board resolution detailing the
circumstances, timing, and procedure for implementing enhanced vehicle
inspection and maintenance for areas within WMD currently subject to
basic I/M, if an RFP milestone is not met or the area fails to attain
the 2008 ozone NAAQS by the attainment date.
The EPA is soliciting public comments on the issues discussed in
this document. We will accept comments from the public on this proposal
for the next 30 days and will consider comments before taking final
action.
V. Statutory and Executive Order Reviews
Under the Clean Air Act, the Administrator is required to approve a
SIP submission that complies with the provisions of the Act and
applicable federal regulations. 42 U.S.C. 7410(k); 40 CFR 52.02(a).
Thus, in reviewing SIP submissions, the EPA's role is to approve state
choices, provided that they meet the criteria of the Clean Air Act.
Accordingly, this proposed action merely proposes to approve state
plans as meeting federal requirements and does not impose additional
[[Page 24829]]
requirements beyond those imposed by state law. For that reason, this
proposed action:
Is not a ``significant regulatory action'' subject to
review by the Office of Management and Budget under Executive Orders
12866 (58 FR 51735, October 4, 1993) and 13563 (76 FR 3821, January 21,
2011);
Does not impose an information collection burden under the
provisions of the Paperwork Reduction Act (44 U.S.C. 3501 et seq.);
Is certified as not having a significant economic impact
on a substantial number of small entities under the Regulatory
Flexibility Act (5 U.S.C. 601 et seq.);
Does not contain any unfunded mandate or significantly or
uniquely affect small governments, as described in the Unfunded
Mandates Reform Act of 1995 (Pub. L. 104-4);
Does not have federalism implications as specified in
Executive Order 13132 (64 FR 43255, August 10, 1999);
Is not an economically significant regulatory action based
on health or safety risks subject to Executive Order 13045 (62 FR
19885, April 23, 1997);
Is not a significant regulatory action subject to
Executive Order 13211 (66 FR 28355, May 22, 2001);
Is not subject to requirements of Section 12(d) of the
National Technology Transfer and Advancement Act of 1995 (15 U.S.C. 272
note) because application of those requirements would be inconsistent
with the Clean Air Act; and
Does not provide the EPA with the discretionary authority
to address disproportionate human health or environmental effects with
practical, appropriate, and legally permissible methods under Executive
Order 12898 (59 FR 7629, February 16, 1994).
In addition, the SIP is not approved to apply on any Indian
reservation land or in any other area where the EPA or an Indian tribe
has demonstrated that a tribe has jurisdiction. In those areas of
Indian country, the proposed rule does not have tribal implications and
will not impose substantial direct costs on tribal governments or
preempt tribal law as specified by Executive Order 13175 (65 FR 67249,
November 9, 2000).
List of Subjects in 40 CFR Part 52
Environmental protection, Air pollution control, Incorporation by
reference, Intergovernmental relations, Nitrogen dioxide, Ozone,
Reporting and recordkeeping requirements, Volatile organic compounds.
Authority: 42 U.S.C. 7401 et seq.
Dated: May 4, 2021.
Deborah Jordan,
Acting Regional Administrator, Region IX.
[FR Doc. 2021-09842 Filed 5-7-21; 8:45 am]
BILLING CODE 6560-50-P
