Endangered and Threatened Wildlife and Plants; Removing Five Species From San Clemente Island From the Federal Lists of Endangered and Threatened Wildlife and Plants, 23882-23913 [2021-08581]

Agencies

• Fish and Wildlife Service
• DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR

[Federal Register Volume 86, Number 85 (Wednesday, May 5, 2021)]
[Proposed Rules]
[Pages 23882-23913]
From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office [www.gpo.gov]
[FR Doc No: 2021-08581]


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DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR

Fish and Wildlife Service

50 CFR Part 17

[Docket No. FWS-R8-ES-2020-0074; FF09E22000 FXES11130900000 201]
RIN 1018-BE73


Endangered and Threatened Wildlife and Plants; Removing Five 
Species From San Clemente Island From the Federal Lists of Endangered 
and Threatened Wildlife and Plants

AGENCY: Fish and Wildlife Service, Interior.

ACTION: Proposed rule.

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SUMMARY: We, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (Service or USFWS), 
propose to remove the San Clemente Bell's sparrow (Artemisiospiza belli 
clementeae) (formerly known as the San Clemente sage sparrow, 
Amphispiza belli clementeae), San Clemente Island bush-mallow 
(Malacothamnus clementinus), San Clemente Island paintbrush (Castilleja 
grisea), San Clemente Island lotus (Acmispon dendroideus var. 
traskiae), and San Clemente Island larkspur (Delphinium variegatum ssp. 
kinkiense) from the Federal Lists of Endangered and Threatened Wildlife 
and Plants (Lists). The bird species and four plant species occur only 
on San Clemente Island, one of the Channel Islands off the southern 
coast of California. The proposed delistings are based on our 
evaluation of the best available scientific and commercial information, 
which indicates that the species' statuses have improved and threats to 
the species have been eliminated or reduced to the point that the 
species have recovered and no longer meet the definitions of either 
endangered or threatened species under the Endangered Species Act of 
1973, as amended (Act). If this proposal is finalized, these species 
will be removed from the Lists.

DATES: We will accept comments received or postmarked on or before July 
6, 2021. We must receive requests for public hearings, electronically, 
using the Federal eRulemaking Portal (see ADDRESSES, below) by June 21, 
2021.

ADDRESSES: You may submit comments by one of the following methods:
    (1) Electronically: Go to the Federal eRulemaking Portal: https://www.regulations.gov. In the Search box, enter FWS-R8-ES-2020-0074, 
which is the docket number for this rulemaking. Then, click on the 
Search button. On the resulting page, in the Search panel on the left 
side of the screen, under the

[[Page 23883]]

Document Type heading, check the Proposed Rule box to locate this 
document. You may submit a comment by clicking on ``Comment Now!'' 
Comments submitted electronically must be received by 11:59 p.m. 
Eastern Time on the closing date.
    (2) By hard copy: Submit by U.S. mail to: Public Comments 
Processing, Attn: FWS-R8-ES-2020-0074, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, 
MS: PRB/3W, 5275 Leesburg Pike, Falls Church, VA 22041-3803.
    We request that you send comments only by the methods described 
above. We will post all comments on https://www.regulations.gov. This 
generally means that we will post any personal information you provide 
us (see Public Comments, below, for more information).
    Document availability: This proposed rule and supporting documents, 
including the recovery plan, draft post-delisting monitoring plan, and 
species status assessment (SSA) reports, are available at https://ecos.fws.gov/ecp/ and at https://www.regulations.gov under Docket No. 
FWS-R8-ES-2020-0074.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Scott Sobiech, Field Supervisor, 
Carlsbad Fish and Wildlife Office, 2177 Salk Avenue, Suite 250, 
Carlsbad, CA 92008; telephone 760-431-9440. Persons who use a 
telecommunications device for the deaf (TDD) may call the Federal Relay 
Service at 800-877-8339.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: 

Executive Summary

    Why we need to publish a rule. Under the Act, a species may warrant 
removal from the Federal Lists of Endangered and Threatened Wildlife 
and Plants (i.e., ``delisting'') if it no longer meets the definition 
of an endangered species or a threatened species. Delisting a species 
can only be completed by issuing a rule.
    What this document does. We propose to remove San Clemente Bell's 
sparrow (Artemisiospiza belli clementeae) (formerly known as the San 
Clemente sage sparrow, Amphispiza belli clementeae), San Clemente 
Island bush-mallow (Malacothamnus clementinus), San Clemente Island 
paintbrush (Castilleja grisea), San Clemente Island lotus (Acmispon 
dendroideus var. traskiae), and San Clemente Island larkspur 
(Delphinium variegatum ssp. kinkiense) from the Federal Lists of 
Endangered and Threatened Wildlife and Plants (Lists).
    The basis for our action. Under the Act, we may determine that a 
species is an endangered or threatened species because of any of five 
factors: (A) The present or threatened destruction, modification, or 
curtailment of its habitat or range; (B) overutilization for 
commercial, recreational, scientific, or educational purposes; (C) 
disease or predation; (D) the inadequacy of existing regulatory 
mechanisms; or (E) other natural or manmade factors affecting its 
continued existence. We have determined that the threats to each of 
these species have been reduced or eliminated so that the species are 
no longer in danger of extinction now or in the foreseeable future and, 
therefore, do not meet the definitions of endangered species or 
threatened species under the Act.
    These species occur only on San Clemente Island, one of the Channel 
Islands off the southern coast of California. The entire island is 
owned and managed by the U.S. Department of the Navy (Navy). 
Historically, nonnative herbivores (goats, sheep, pigs, cattle, mule 
deer) severely degraded habitat on San Clemente Island, leading to the 
decline of endemic species. Since removal of these nonnative 
herbivores, the plant communities on San Clemente Island have been 
recovering. Removal of nonnative herbivores, along with restoration and 
management actions by the Navy, have led to the recovery of these five 
species to the point that they no longer require protections under the 
Act.

Information Requested

    We intend that any final action resulting from this proposed rule 
will be based on the best scientific and commercial data available and 
be as accurate and as effective as possible. Therefore, we request 
comments or information from other concerned governmental agencies, 
Native American tribes, the scientific community, industry, or any 
other interested parties concerning this proposed rule.
    We particularly seek comments concerning:
    (1) Reasons we should or should not remove (delist) any of these 
species from the Lists.
    (2) New information on the historical and current status, genetics, 
range, distribution, and population size of these species.
    (3) New information on the known and potential threats to the 
species, including fire and changes in precipitation.
    (4) New information regarding the life history, ecology, and 
habitat use of the species.
    (5) The extent of protection and management that would be provided 
by the Navy to the five species if the protections of the Act (16 
U.S.C. 1531 et seq.) are removed.
    (6) Current or planned activities within the geographic range of 
these species that may have adverse or beneficial impacts on the 
species.
    (7) Any planned change in military training, infrastructure needs, 
or land use on San Clemente Island that may affect the species.
    (8) Considerations for post-delisting monitoring, including 
monitoring protocols and length of time monitoring is needed, as well 
as triggers for reevaluation.
    Please include sufficient information with your submission (such as 
scientific journal articles or other publications) to allow us to 
verify any scientific or commercial information you include.
    Please note that submissions merely stating support for, or 
opposition to, the action under consideration without providing 
supporting information, although noted, do not provide substantial 
information necessary to support a determination. Section 4(b)(1)(A) of 
the Act directs that determinations as to whether any species is an 
endangered species or a threatened species must be made ``solely on the 
basis of the best scientific and commercial data available.''
    Because we will consider all comments and information we receive 
during the comment period, our final determinations may differ from 
this proposal. Based on the new information we receive (and any 
comments on that new information), we may conclude that one or more of 
the species should remain listed as endangered or threatened instead of 
being removed from the Lists, we may conclude that one or more of the 
species should be reclassified from an endangered species to a 
threatened species, or we may conclude that one or more of the species 
should be reclassified from a threatened to an endangered species.
    You may submit your comments and materials concerning this proposed 
rule by one of the methods listed in ADDRESSES. We request that you 
send comments only by the methods described in ADDRESSES.
    If you submit information via https://www.regulations.gov, your 
entire submission--including any personal identifying information--will 
be posted on the website. If your submission is made via a hardcopy 
that includes personal identifying information, you may request at the 
top of your document that we withhold this information from public 
review. However, we cannot guarantee that we will be able to do so. We 
will post all hardcopy submissions on https://www.regulations.gov.

[[Page 23884]]

    Comments and materials we receive, as well as supporting 
documentation we used in preparing this proposed rule, will be 
available for public inspection on https://www.regulations.gov.

Public Hearing

    Section 4(b)(5) of the Act provides for a public hearing on this 
proposal, if requested. Requests must be received by the date specified 
in DATES. Such requests must be sent electronically, using the Federal 
eRulemaking Portal (see ADDRESSES, above). We will schedule a public 
hearing on this proposal, if requested, and announce the date, time, 
and place of the hearing, as well as how to obtain reasonable 
accommodations, in the Federal Register and local newspapers at least 
15 days before the hearing. For the immediate future, we will provide 
public hearings using webinars that will be announced on the Service's 
website, in addition to the Federal Register. The use of virtual public 
hearings is consistent with our regulations at 50 CFR 424.16(c)(3).

Supporting Documents

    Species status assessment (SSA) reports for the five species were 
prepared by Texas A&M Natural Resources Institute, in cooperation with 
the Service's San Clemente Island SSA team and the Navy. The SSA 
reports represent a compilation of the best scientific and commercial 
data available concerning the status of these species, including the 
impacts of past, present, and future factors (both negative and 
beneficial) affecting the species.
    In accordance with our July 1, 1994, peer review policy (59 FR 
34270; July 1, 1994), our August 22, 2016, Director's Memo on the Peer 
Review Process, and the Office of Management and Budget's December 16, 
2004, Final Information Quality Bulletin for Peer Review (revised June 
2012), we solicited independent scientific reviews of the information 
contained in each of the SSA reports. Table 1, below, indicates the 
number of independent peer reviewers we sent each SSA report to and the 
number of responses we received. You may view the peer review responses 
we received at https://www.regulations.gov under Docket No. FWS-R8-ES-
2020-0074. The SSA reports were also submitted to our Federal and State 
partners for scientific review, but we did not receive any comments. 
The Navy helped with development of the SSAs and, therefore, did not 
comment on the drafts. We incorporated the results of the peer reviews 
in the final SSA reports, as appropriate, which are the foundation for 
this proposed rule.

         Table 1--Number of Peer Reviews Requested and Responses
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                                                            Number peer
                                            Number peer       review
                 Species                      reviews        responses
                                             requested       received
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San Clemente Bell's sparrow.............               5               4
San Clemente Island paintbrush..........               3               2
San Clemente Island lotus...............               3               1
San Clemente Island larkspur............               4               2
San Clemente Island bush-mallow.........               5               3
------------------------------------------------------------------------

Previous Federal Actions

    All five species were originally listed under the Act on August 11, 
1977 (42 FR 40682). The four plant species were listed as endangered 
species, while the sparrow was listed as a threatened species. No 
critical habitat has been designated for any of the five species.
    The taxonomies of the species have undergone revisions since the 
species were first listed, so that some are now referred to by 
different scientific and common names. Table 2, below, indicates the 
scientific and common names under which the species were originally 
listed as well as their currently accepted scientific names. These 
taxonomic and nomenclatural revisions have not altered the definition, 
distribution, or range of any of these species from what it was at the 
time of listing. In the remainder of this proposed rule, we will refer 
to the species by their currently accepted common names.
    The Recovery Plan for Endangered and Threatened Species of the 
California Channel Island, which included the five species that are the 
subject of this proposed rule, was finalized in 1984 (USFWS 1984, pp. 
1-165). Five-year status reviews were completed for each of these taxa 
and recommended reclassification from endangered to threatened species 
for all four of the plant taxa (USFWS 2007a, USFWS 2007b, USFWS 2007c, 
USFWS 2008).
    On May 18, 2010, we received a petition from the Pacific Legal 
Foundation requesting that the Service delist or downlist six species, 
including San Clemente Island paintbrush, San Clemente Island lotus, 
and San Clemente Island bush-mallow. The subsequent status reviews 
resulted in downlisting the San Clemente Island paintbrush and San 
Clemente Island lotus from endangered to threatened (78 FR 45406; July 
26, 2013) as indicated below in Table 2. San Clemente Island bush-
mallow was not reclassified at the time because of uncertainty 
regarding the status of several occurrences that made up a large 
proportion of its range (77 FR 29078; May 16, 2012).

[[Page 23885]]

    We published notices of initiation of periodic status reviews for 
the five species required under section 4(c)(2) of the Act in 2019 and 
2020 (84 FR 36116, July 26, 2019; 85 FR 4692, January 27, 2020); this 
document serves as completion of those status reviews. The referenced 
documents and additional details can be found using the Service's 
Environmental Conservation Online System (ECOS): https://ecos.fws.gov/.

                                                      Table 2--Summary of Previous Federal Actions
             [An * indicates the common and scientific names of these taxa as they currently appear on the Lists at 50 CFR 17.11 and 17.12.]
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                                                                         Species
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Common and scientific names at time  San Clemente sage       San Clemente Island     San Clemente broom...  San Clemente Island    San Clemente Island
 of listing (1977).                   sparrow.                indian paintbrush.     (Lotus scoparius ssp.   larkspur.              bushmallow
                                     (Amphispiza belli       (Castilleja grisea)...   traskiae).            (Delphinium            (Malacothamnus
                                      clementae) *.                                                          kinkiense).            clementinus)
Original listing status............  T.....................  E.....................  E....................  E....................  E
5-Year status review date and        August 13, 2009; No     September 24, 2007;     September 24, 2007;    March 31, 2008;        September 28, 2007;
 recommendation.                      change.                 downlist to             downlist to            downlist to            downlist to
                                                              threatened.             threatened.            threatened.            threatened
12-month findings and                ......................  Final downlisting:      Final downlisting:     .....................  12-month finding, not
 reclassifications.                                           July 26, 2013 (78 FR    July 26, 2013 (78 FR                          warranted for
                                                              45406).                 45406).                                       reclassification:
                                                                                                                                    May 16, 2012 (77 FR
                                                                                                                                    29078)
Currently accepted common and        San Clemente Bell's     San Clemente Island     San Clemente Island    San Clemente Island    San Clemente Island
 scientific names.                    sparrow.                paintbrush.             lotus.                 larkspur.              bush-mallow
                                     (Artemisiospiza belli   (Castilleja grisea) *.  (Acmispon dendroideus  (Delphinium            (Malacothamnus
                                      clementeae).                                    var. traskiae) *.      variegatum ssp.        clementinus) *
                                                                                                             kinkiense) *.
Current listing status.............  T.....................  T.....................  T....................  E....................  E
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Proposed Delisting Determinations

Background

Overview of San Clemente Island

    The five species addressed in this proposed rule are endemic to San 
Clemente Island, the southernmost island of the California Channel 
Islands, located 64 miles (mi) (103 kilometers (km)) west of San Diego, 
California. The island is approximately 56 square mi (145 square km, 
36,073 acres (ac), or 14,598 hectares (ha)) (Junak and Wilken 1998, p. 
2) and is long and narrow: 21 mi (34 km) long by 1.5 mi (2.4 km) wide 
at the north end, and 4 mi (6.4 km) wide at the south end (USFWS 1984, 
p. 5). The island consists of a relatively broad open plateau that 
slopes gently to the west. Conspicuous marine terraces line the western 
slope of the island, while steep escarpments drop precipitously to the 
rocky coastline on the eastern side along the southern 75 percent of 
its coastline. Many canyons, some of which are up to 500 feet (ft) (152 
meters (m)) deep, dissect the southern part of the island. Mount 
Thirst, the highest point on the island, rises to approximately 1,965 
ft (599 m) (Navy 2013a, p. 1.4).
    San Clemente Island is located in a Mediterranean climatic regime 
with a significant maritime influence. Average monthly temperatures 
range from 58 degrees Fahrenheit ([deg]F) (14 degrees Celsius ([deg]C)) 
to 66 [deg]F (19 [deg]C), with a monthly maximum temperature of 72 
[deg]F (27 [deg]C) in August and a monthly minimum of 51 [deg]F (10 
[deg]C) in December (Navy 2013a, p. 3.11). Average monthly relative 
humidity varies from 54 to 86 percent depending on location and time of 
year, and the island experiences dramatic fluctuations in annual 
rainfall, averaging 6.6 inches (in) (16.8 centimeters (cm)) (Navy 
2013a, pp. 3.11, 3.13). Precipitation is received mainly from November 
through April, with little from May through October. In addition to 
precipitation, fog drip during the typical dry season is a vital source 
of moisture to the San Clemente Island (SCI) ecosystem (Navy 2013a, pp. 
3.9, 3.13). The central plateau is characterized mainly by native and 
nonnative grassland communities. Marine terraces on the western side of 
the island support maritime desert scrub communities, and the steep 
eastern escarpment supports grassland and sagebrush communities. Deep 
canyons that incise both the east and the west sides of the island 
support limited canyon woodland communities.

San Clemente Bell's Sparrow

    A thorough review of the taxonomy, life history, and ecology of the 
San Clemente Bell's sparrow is presented in the SSA report (USFWS 
2020a). The San Clemente Bell's sparrow (Artemisiospiza belli 
clementeae; Chesser et al. 2012), formerly called the San Clemente sage 
sparrow, is a non-migratory subspecies of Bell's sparrow endemic to San 
Clemente Island, California. It is a grayish-brown colored sparrow with 
a small dark breast spot, complete white eye rings, and distinctive 
white and black malar stripes. It is approximately 5.1-5.9 in (13-15 
cm) long, and weighs, on average, 0.59 ounces (16.8 grams) (Martin and 
Carlson 1998, p. 2; Turner et al. 2005, p. 27).
    The San Clemente (SC) Bell's sparrow has been close to extinction, 
with a low of 38 individual adults reported in 1984 (Hyde 1985, p. 30). 
The population was estimated to be 316 in 1981, 38 in 1984, and 294 in 
1997 (Beaudry et al. 2003, pp. 1-2). Some of this population 
fluctuation may be related to differences in survey methods and areas 
surveyed (Kaiser et al. 2008, pp. 31-33). In order to more accurately 
estimate distribution and population size, SC Bell's sparrow breeding 
season surveys were redesigned in 2012 (Meiman et al. 2019, pp. 3-4) 
and implemented island-wide in 2013, resulting in an island-wide 
estimate of 4,534 adult sparrows (2,267 pairs). The population 
estimates have consistently been over 4,000 adults since 2013 (4,194-
7,656) (USFWS 2020a, p. 25).
    At listing, the SC Bell's sparrow was primarily distributed within 
the lower marine terraces along the northwestern portion of SCI, in the 
maritime desert scrub plant communities, mostly dominated by boxthorn 
(Willey 1997, p. 219). However, the SC Bell's sparrow has more recently 
been found widely across the island, bringing recent estimates of 
potential available habitat from approximately 4,196 ha (10,369

[[Page 23886]]

acres) in 2009 (USFWS 2009, p. 8) to approximately 13,132 ha (32,449 
acres, almost 90 percent of the island) (Meiman et al. 2018, p. 5). As 
the native habitats recovered following the removal of the nonnative 
grazing and browsing animals, the distribution of SC Bell's sparrow 
expanded on SCI (Meiman et al. 2019, pp. 2-4). It is likely that 
sparrows used boxthorn as a refuge and started using other substrates 
before we recognized them as nesting habitat. While the SC Bell's 
sparrow is now distributed widely across the island (see Figure 1, 
below), its density varies greatly spatially and among vegetation 
types. While sparrows may be found in some habitat strata mapped as 
grasslands, many grassland areas do not support SC Bell's sparrow, 
likely due in part to the lack of shrub cover.
BILLING CODE 4333-15-P
[GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] TP05MY21.000


[[Page 23887]]


    Boxthorn habitat is still considered high-quality habitat, although 
moderate to high population densities are also found in sagebrush and 
shrub habitat near canyons and along the steep eastern slope. SC Bell's 
sparrows are present in significantly lower densities in mixed shrub, 
cactus, and grassland (grass/herb) habitats along the central plateau 
(Meiman et al. 2018, p. 18). The west shore boxthorn habitat, where the 
species was originally described, remains densely occupied and is thus 
important to the species.
    SC Bell's sparrows inhabit most plant communities on SCI, including 
Maritime Desert Scrub in Lycium (boxthorn) phase, Opuntia (prickly 
pear) phase, and Cylindropuntia (cholla) phase; Maritime sage scrub; 
canyon shrubland/woodland; and grasslands (USFWS 2020a, pp. 20-21). 
Within these plant communities, SC Bell's sparrows show an affinity for 
areas dominated by shrubs and cacti (Opuntia spp.). SC Bell's sparrows 
demonstrate a positive association with structural shrub cover (Meiman 
et al. 2015a, p. 33), as they typically use shrubs for nesting 
substrate and use the gaps between and area underneath shrubs for 
foraging. The abundance of shrubs, including boxthorn, has been 
positively correlated with sparrow density (Turner 2009, pp. 53-54). 
High grass cover has been correlated with lower sparrow densities and 
larger territory sizes, which may indicate that grasses are not likely 
important resources during the nesting season (Turner 2009, pp. 53-54).
    The SC Bell's sparrow is a ground gleaner and eats available 
insects and spiders, and also seeds taken from the ground and low 
vegetation. During the winter, SC Bell's sparrows feed on prickly pear 
and cholla cactus fruit and on moths (Hyde 1985, p. 24). The initiation 
of breeding activity and the length of the nesting season appear to be 
tied to precipitation patterns (Kaiser et al. 2007, pp. 48-49; Meiman 
et al. 2018, p. 36). Breeding activity usually peaks in March and 
April, and lasts through late June or July. Clutch size ranges from 1 
to 5 eggs, with asynchronous hatching after 12 to 13 days of incubation 
conducted mostly by the female (Martin and Carlson 1998, p. 9). SC 
Bell's sparrows are able to breed their first year, and multiple 
clutches per year have been recorded, with most pairs producing 
multiple successful broods in favorable years (Martin and Carlson 1998, 
p. 9; Kaiser et al. 2008, p. 36). SC Bell's sparrows express site 
fidelity each nesting season, and juveniles disperse from the natal 
area during their first winter.
    Amounts and distribution of rainfall affect the timing and extent 
of vegetation growth and flowering. During drought years, SC Bell's 
sparrows may not reproduce at all or a subset of the population may 
suppress breeding (Kaiser et al. 2007, p. iv; Stahl et al. 2010, p. 48; 
Meiman et al. 2019, p. 35), which can, but does not always, result in 
depressed populations following drought years. SC Bell's sparrows 
appear to respond to favorable precipitation patterns and resulting 
conditions by producing multiple clutches, which typically drive 
population numbers up in years that follow ``good'' precipitation years 
(Kaiser et al. 2007, p. iv; Stahl et al. 2010, p. 50). However, while 
there is a relationship between reproductive output and rainfall, the 
impacts of droughts of varying duration and severity on the population 
are unclear, and the mechanisms driving these relationships are unknown 
(USFWS 2020a, pp. 58-63).

San Clemente Island Bush-Mallow

    A thorough review of the taxonomy, life history, and ecology of the 
San Clemente Island bush-mallow is presented in the SSA report (USFWS 
2020b). San Clemente Island bush-mallow (Malacothamnus clementinus) is 
a rounded shrub in the Malvaceae (mallow family) (Slotta 2012; 77 FR 
29078, May 16, 2012, p. 29080). Plants are generally 2.3 to 3.3 ft (0.7 
to 1 m) tall with numerous hairy branched stems arising from the base 
of the plant (Munz and Johnston 1924, p. 296; Munz 1959, pp. 122-125; 
Bates 1993, p. 752). Flowers are clustered in the uppermost leaf axils, 
forming interrupted spikes 3.9 to 7.9 in (10 to 20 cm) long (Munz 1959, 
p. 125). Flowers are bisexual and variously described as having pink or 
white and fading lavender petals (Munz and Johnston 1924, p. 296; Bates 
1993, p. 752).
    The historical range and distribution of SCI bush-mallow on SCI is 
unknown because botanical studies were not conducted on the island 
prior to the introduction of ungulates beginning in the 1800s (Kellogg 
and Kellogg 1994, p. 4). At the time of listing, one site at Lemon Tank 
Canyon on the eastern side of the island and two additional locations 
of two to three small plants in China Canyon on the southern end of the 
island were known (42 FR 40682, August 11, 1977, p. 40683; USFWS 1984, 
p. 48). Since listing, new locations of SCI bush-mallow have been 
discovered among the generally southwesterly facing coastal terraces 
and their associated escarpments in the southern and middle regions of 
SCI (Junak and Wilken 1998, pp. 1-416, Geographic Information System 
(GIS) data; Junak 2006, pp. 1-176, GIS data; Tierra Data Inc. 2008, pp. 
1-24, appendices and GIS data; San Diego State University Soil Ecology 
and Restoration Group (SERG) 2010a and 2010b, GIS data). Most of the 
known locations occur throughout the southwestern region of the island. 
The main southern distribution of SCI bush-mallow is disconnected from 
the Lemon Tank Canyon locality by approximately 4 mi (6.4 km). Many of 
these new locations have been documented since feral mammals were 
removed, suggesting that plants may have reemerged from underground 
stems that survived grazing by feral herbivores (Junak 2006, pers. 
comm. in 77 FR 29078, May 16, 2012, p. 29086), although experts doubt 
that rhizomes would be able to store enough energy to sprout after a 
long period of dormancy without sending up shoots in the interim 
(Munson 2019, pers. comm.; Rebman 2019, pers. comm.; Morse 2020, pers. 
comm.).
    The current abundance and distribution of SCI bush-mallow is 
estimated to total approximately 5,611 individuals at 222 locations 
occupying 15 watersheds (see Figure 2, below) (USFWS 2020b, pp. 29-31). 
Because distinguishing genetically distinct individuals among groups of 
stems is difficult, counts or estimates of individuals have most often 
been used collectively to refer to both genetically distinct 
individuals (genets) and clones (ramets) (USFWS 2020b, p. 26). In the 
current estimate, individuals refer to individual plants and not 
necessarily to genetically distinct individuals. Because of access 
restrictions due to risk of unexploded ordnances, occurrences within 
areas subject to bombardment have not been assessed recently enough to 
be included in this estimate, but are likely still extant.

[[Page 23888]]

[GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] TP05MY21.001

    SCI bush-mallow occurs in a variety of habitats on SCI. 
Historically, it was observed on rocky canyon walls and ridges, 
presumably because foraging goats did not browse those areas. Since 
removal of nonnative feral ungulates, SCI bush-mallow has been found at 
the base of escarpments between coastal terraces on the western side of 
the island within maritime cactus scrub (Navy 2002, pp. D-19, D-20), 
and it can also occur on low canyon benches and in rocky grasslands. 
Moisture that collects in rock crevices and at the base of canyon walls 
and escarpments may provide favorable conditions for this species 
(Junak 2006, pers. comm. in 77 FR 29078, May 16, 2012, p. 29094). Based 
on its habitat range on the island and the ease of cultivating the 
plant, SCI bush-mallow appears to tolerate a broad

[[Page 23889]]

range of soil types (USFWS 1984, p. 50). It is often associated with 
maritime cactus scrub vegetation on coastal flats at the southwestern 
end of the island (Junak and Wilken 1998, p. 256).
    SCI bush-mallow flowers in the spring and summer, typically from 
March to August (Kearney 1951, p. 115; California Native Plant Society 
2011). It is generally thought that SCI bush-mallow is pollinated by 
insects; potential pollinators incidentally observed in the wild 
include wasps and butterflies (USFWS 2007, p. 9). Although no specific 
pollinator for this species is known, the shape of the flowers suggest 
that it is not limited to a specific pollinator and instead can be 
pollinated by different pollinators (Muller and Junak 2011, p. 33).
    While each plant is capable of making large numbers of seeds, 
recorded seed production in natural occurrences of SCI bush-mallow has 
been very low (Helenurm 1997, p. 51; Helenurm 1999, p. 39; Junak and 
Wilken 1998, p. 291). Germination rates in seed trials are also low, 
only 4 to 35 percent (Evans and Bohn 1987, p. 538; Junak and Wilken 
1998, p. 291). Hypotheses for low seed set and germination rates 
include low pollinator visitation rates, reduced pollinator diversity, 
partial self-incompatibility (i.e., plants need to be pollinated by a 
non-closely related individual), limited survey efforts, and that seed 
germination may be stimulated by fire (USFWS 2020b, pp. 22-23). 
However, it is difficult to determine the cause of the apparent low 
reproductive output noted, whether low reproductive output is still an 
issue currently, and whether fire assists germination.
    SCI bush-mallow can reproduce vegetatively, or clonally, by 
sprouting from rhizomes (Evans and Bohn 1987, p. 538), as well as 
sexually by seeds, although sexual recruitment is likely low. The 
ability to spread vegetatively by underground rhizomes results in 
patches of spatially separate but genetically identical individuals 
(Evans and Bohn 1987, p. 538). Occurrences are likely a mix of both 
genetically unique individuals (genets) and clonal individuals (ramets) 
that are connected underground. Although difficult to discern between 
ramets and genets in the field, most groups of plants are comprised of 
ramets from an unknown number of genets, consistent with other plant 
species exhibiting strong clonal growth. Although growth and spread of 
the population has been thought to be mostly clonal (Muller and Junak 
2011, p. 50), seedlings have on occasion been identified in the field 
by the presence of cotyledons (embryonic leaf in seed-bearing plants) 
(Munson 2019, pers. comm.). While the distribution of SCI bush-mallow 
is much greater than was known at the time of listing, difficulty and 
confusion with discerning between ramets and genets and low 
reproductive output create uncertainty about whether it is reproducing 
sexually or only clonally.
    Two different studies of population genetics have been conducted 
(Helenurm 1997; Helenurm 1999). These genetic assessments along with 
field observations indicate that overall genetic diversity is low, but 
there is some genetic diversity within and among patches of SCI bush-
mallow (i.e., based on these studies, not all individuals are clones in 
each area). However, due to the limitations of techniques, neither 
study is conclusive. Genetic diversity is presumed to have declined 
since the introduction of feral browsers and grazers, but we do not 
know historical or current levels of genetic diversity or normal rates 
of sexual versus asexual reproduction, so no comparisons can be made. 
Overall, genetic diversity within SCI bush-mallow is still very low 
compared with other island endemic plant taxa (Helenurm 1999, p. 40).
    This species may be subject to drought stress to some extent (from 
25 to 89 percent of individuals sampled), which may reduce flowering 
(Muller and Junak 2011, p. 58). This species may be drought deciduous 
as is a closely related species of bush-mallow, Malacothamnus 
fasciculatus, but there are no physiological studies to support this 
conjecture; the similar phenology of SCI bush-mallow and its habitat 
attributes support the suggestion (Muller and Junak 2011, p. 32).
    Although there is no information regarding the fire tolerance of 
SCI bush-mallow, other species in the same genus are fire-tolerant and 
able to adapt (Rundel 1982, p. 86). Seed germination in other species 
in the genus is stimulated by fire, and there is evidence that fire may 
also have a positive effect on SCI bush-mallow. Because of its ability 
to resprout from rhizomes and the adaptation of other species in the 
genus to fire, it is thought that SCI bush-mallow is likely resistant 
to fire and that its seeds may even respond positively to fire (USFWS 
2008b, p. 77).

San Clemente Island Paintbrush

    A thorough review of the taxonomy, life history, and ecology of the 
San Clemente Island paintbrush is presented in the SSA report (USFWS 
2020e).
    San Clemente Island paintbrush (Castilleja grisea) is a highly 
branched perennial subshrub in the broomrape family (Orobanchaceae) 
endemic to SCI (Chuang and Heckard 1993, p. 1021) and is the only 
representative of the genus Castilleja found on the island (Helenurm et 
al. 2005, p. 1222). SCI paintbrush is typically 11.5 to 31.5 in (29 to 
80 cm) in height and covered with dense white, wooly hairs. Most 
Castilleja species have bisexual flowers disposed in terminal spikes. 
The flowers of SCI paintbrush are yellow.
    SCI paintbrush is thought to have been relatively common on SCI in 
the 1930s, and subsequently declined as a result of unchecked grazing 
by introduced feral herbivores (Helenurm et al. 2005, p. 1222). The 
complete historical range of SCI paintbrush on SCI is unknown because 
botanical studies were not completed before the plant's decline. 
Herbarium records documented the species on the south and east sides of 
the island before the time of listing (California Consortium of 
Herbaria 2019, records for C. grisea). By 1963, SCI paintbrush was 
reported as rare or occasional (Raven 1963, p. 337). Since the complete 
removal of feral ungulates from SCI by 1992, SCI paintbrush has been 
detected across the southern two-thirds of the island (Keegan et al. 
1994, p. 58; Junak and Wilken 1998, pp. 1-416, GIS data; Junak 2006, 
pp. 1-176, GIS data; Tierra Data Inc. 2008, pp. 1-24, appendices and 
GIS data; SERG 2010a and 2010b, GIS data). The current abundance and 
distribution of SCI paintbrush is estimated to be comprised of 601 
locations totaling 48,181 individuals occupying 87 watersheds (see 
Figure 3, below) (USFWS 2020e, pp. 27-29).

[[Page 23890]]

[GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] TP05MY21.002

    Over time, the range of SCI paintbrush has expanded, and it now 
occupies a broad range of habitats across the island. SCI paintbrush is 
often associated with two major vegetation types: Canyon woodland 
(which encompasses approximately 696 ac (282 ha)), and maritime desert 
scrub (which encompasses approximately 6,228 ac (2,520 ha)). Aspect 
varies widely, but generally plants are found on flats and steep rocky 
slopes from 0-70 degrees (CNDDB 2019; Navy 2017, pp. 11-24; Vanderplank 
et al. 2019, p. 5), and the species is found almost exclusively on non-
clay soils and rocky outcrops (Vanderplank et al. 2019, p. 5). SCI 
paintbrush can colonize disturbed areas, and the species likely has the 
potential for further range expansion on SCI

[[Page 23891]]

(Navy 2008a, p. 3.11-3.20; Vanderplank et al. 2019, p. 5).
    All members of the genus Castilleja are considered hemiparasitic, 
meaning that its roots are capable of forming parasitic connections to 
roots of other plants (Heckard 1962, p. 27). Plants within the genus 
are capable of photosynthesis and can exist without a host, but they 
are able to derive water, nutrients, and photosynthates from a host 
plant if present (Heckard 1962, p. 25). Members of the genus Castilleja 
appear to form parasitic connections with a wide range of host plant 
species from a wide range of families (Heckard 1962, p. 28; Atsatt and 
Strong 1970, p. 280; Marvier 1996, p. 1399; Adler 2002, p. 2704; Adler 
2003, p. 2086; Muller 2005, p. 4). Although studies to verify host-
connections have not been done, numerous plant species are associated 
with SCI paintbrush (Junak and Wilken 1998, p. 82; R. N. Muller 2009, 
pers. comm., in 77 FR 29078, May 16, 2012, p. 29096). The generalist 
host-selection of C. grisea likely aided recovery of this species as 
the vegetation recovered following the removal of feral browsers and 
grazers (Muller and Junak 2012, pp. 16-17).
    SCI paintbrush typically flowers between February and May, 
producing yellow bisexual flowers (Chuang and Heckard 1993, pp. 1016-
1024; Navy 2013a, pp. 3-203). SCI paintbrush is likely self-
incompatible (unable to produce viable seed through self-
fertilization), as observed in other species of the genus (Carpenter 
1983, p. 218; Junak and Wilken 1998, p. 84). Results of a population 
genetic study were consistent with an outcrossing breeding system 
(Helenurm et al. 2005, p. 1225). SCI paintbrush is most closely related 
to, and shares floral traits with, other species in the genus primarily 
adapted for bee pollination (Chuang and Heckard 1991, p. 658), but both 
insect and hummingbird pollination of Castilleja have been reported 
(Grant 1994, p. 10409; Junak and Wilken 1998, p. 84).
    Although the lifespan of SCI paintbrush is unknown, its larger 
stature and woodier habit (general appearance or growth form) suggest 
it may be longer lived, which would be consistent with an estimated 
lifespan of 5-15 years based on observations made during repeat visits 
to occupied sites (Munson 2019, pers. comm.). Based on life-history, 
the persistence of interbreeding groups of plants may depend upon 
frequent production of seed (Dunwidde et al. 2001, p. 161) as no 
evidence of clonal growth has been found (Muller and Junak 2010, p. 
42). Population growth is primarily by recruitment from existing 
populations from plants that emerged from the soil seed-bank following 
removal of feral herbivores or from plants that survived those impacts 
(Muller and Junak 2010, p. 42). However, the increase in SCI 
paintbrush's range, along with the discovery of new individuals along 
trails or near buildings that people frequent (O'Connor 2019, pers. 
comm.), suggests that the establishment of new population centers may 
be relatively common. The degree of fire tolerance of SCI paintbrush is 
unknown. It is not specifically adapted to fire, but it is likely 
resilient to occasional fires and has been seen to persist in areas 
after fires, although severe fires can kill plants and reduce numbers 
of individuals in a location (Muller and Junak 2011, p. 16; US Navy 
1996, pp. 5-2; Tierra Data Inc. 2005, p. 80; Vanderplank et al. 2019, 
p. 13).

San Clemente Island Lotus (Acmispon dendroideus var. traskiae)

    A thorough review of the taxonomy, life history, and ecology of the 
San Clemente Island lotus is presented in the SSA report (USFWS 2020d).
    San Clemente Island lotus (Acmispon dendroideus var. traskiae) is a 
semi-woody, flowering subshrub in the legume or pea family (Fabaceae). 
It is endemic to SCI (Isely 1993, p. 619) and is one of five taxa in 
the genus Acmispon found on the island (Tierra Data Inc. 2005, p. C-8; 
Brouillet 2008, pp. 388-392).
    SCI lotus is typically less than 4 ft (1.2 m) tall with slender 
erect green branches (Munz 1974, pp. 449-450; USFWS 1984, p. 59; Allan 
1999, p. 82). Each leaf has three to five leaflets, each approximately 
0.2 to 0.3 in (5 to 9 millimeters (mm)) long (USFWS 1984, p. 59; Allan 
1999, p. 82). SCI lotus has small yellow flowers that are bisexual and 
arranged in one to five flowered clusters on stalks that arise from 
axils between the stem and leaf of terminal shoots (Junak and Wilken 
1998, p. 256). Pistils are initially yellow, turning orange then red as 
the fruit matures (USFWS 1984, p. 59).
    The 1977 listing rule mentioned that SCI lotus occurred at Wilson 
Cove on the north end of the island, but no other details were 
available (42 FR 40682, August 11, 1977, p. 40683). In the 1984 
recovery plan, SCI lotus was considered to be restricted to six 
``populations'' associated with rocky areas, with the largest number of 
plants growing in the Wilson Cove area (USFWS 1984, p. 59). Only a few 
herbarium specimens of SCI lotus exist, making historical distribution 
and condition difficult to assess. Based on herbarium records, 
California Natural Diversity Database (CNDDB) records, and the recovery 
plan, the historical range includes occurrences in the northern part of 
the island (Wilson Cove) down to the southern point (Pyramid Head). 
Since the final removal of all feral herbivores by 1992, the 
distribution of this taxon has steadily increased (77 FR 29078, May 16, 
2012, p. 29110). By 1997, roughly 50 percent of documented occurrences 
of these plants were found in the vicinity of Wilson Cove and by 2004, 
75 percent of the distribution of this taxon was found beyond this area 
and extended to the southern-most part of the island (USFWS 2007, pp. 
4-5).
    The most recent survey data show the distribution of SCI lotus 
spans the entire length of the island from Wilson Cove to the southern 
tip east of Pyramid Cove, a distance of approximately 19 mi (31 km) 
(Junak and Wilken 1998, p. 261; Junak 2006, Map A-C; Vanderplank et al. 
2019, p. 27). The majority of locations tend to be clustered on north-
facing slopes on the eastern side of the island (Vanderplank et al. 
2019, p. 7). SCI lotus tends to occur in small groups of 10 to 50 
individuals (Allan 1999, p. 84). The status of a number of historical 
locations are unknown because they occur in areas with restricted 
access, such as due to unexploded ordnances. Without repeated survey 
data in some of those locations, it is unknown whether individuals 
observed 40 years ago still persist, so for purposes of estimating 
current distribution and abundance, 15 historically occupied watersheds 
are no longer considered occupied (USFWS 2020d, p. 26). However, 
despite inconsistencies in the survey data, the data indicate that the 
number of individuals and the range of SCI lotus have increased over 
time, and SCI lotus's current distribution is estimated to be 249 
locations within 58 watersheds totaling 21,251 individuals (see Figure 
4, below) (USFWS 2020d, pp. 24-27).

[[Page 23892]]

[GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] TP05MY21.003

    SCI lotus establishes on north- and east-facing slopes and ridges 
at elevations ranging from 25 to 1,400 ft (7.6 to 463 m) and is found 
in canyon bottoms or along ridgelines (Junak 2006, p. 125). It appears 
to preferentially establish and grow somewhat colonially around rock 
outcrops and among large boulders situated in grassland areas and along 
the interface between grassland and maritime sage scrub (Allan 1999, p. 
84; Navy 2002, p. D-9); SCI lotus also readily occupies disturbed sites 
and locations close to buildings, roads, and pipelines (Navy 2013b, p. 
3-201). It occurs on well-drained soils where adequate soil moisture is 
available to the plant (Junak and Wilken 1998, p. 256; Navy 2002, p. D-
9) and occurs mostly on clay to rocky soils (Vanderplank et al. 2019, 
p. 7). SCI lotus

[[Page 23893]]

is generally associated with two habitat types on the island: canyon 
woodland supported on approximately 696 ac (282 ha), and maritime 
desert scrub along the northeastern escarpment supported on 
approximately 6,228 ac (2,520 ha) (Navy 2002, pp. 3.57, 3.58).
    SCI lotus is short-lived, with a reported lifespan of less than 5 
years (USFWS 2008, p. 113); however, individuals near Wilson Cove have 
been observed to live longer than 6 years (Emily Howe 2017, pers. comm. 
in Vanderplank et al. 2019, p. 6). Like other legumes, the roots of 
plants in the genus Acmispon to which SCI lotus belongs are able to fix 
atmospheric nitrogen, making it available to plants in the form of 
ammonia, enriching the soil and making members of the genus Acmispon 
important post-fire colonizers (S[oslash]rensen and Sessitsch 2007 in 
Vanderplank et al. 2019, p. 4).
    SCI lotus flowers between February and August, peaking from March 
to May (Junak and Wilken 1998, p. 256; USFWS 2008, p. 113), with 
halictid bees (a family of small solitary bees that typically nest in 
the ground), bumblebees, and small beetles observed foraging on the 
flowers (Junak and Wilken 1998, p. 257; Allan 1999, pp. 64, 85). A 
sister taxon (Acmispon glaber [syn. Lotus scoparius]) flowers in 
response to available moisture from fog and precipitation, primarily 
winter rainfall (Vanderplank and Ezcurra 2015, p. 16), which may also 
be true of SCI lotus. The taxon is self-compatible, meaning it is 
capable of self-fertilization, and can self-pollinate (Allan 1999, pp. 
85-86), but plants may also rely on insects for more effective 
pollination (Arroyo 1981, pp. 728-729).
    On average, a single SCI lotus individual can produce approximately 
36 to 64 flowering shoots, 118 to 144 flowers per shoot, and 4 to 6 
seeds per fruit (Junak and Wilken 1998, p. 257). This information 
suggests that, under ideal conditions, an individual can produce a high 
volume of seeds (16,000 or more). Like most legumes, SCI lotus seeds 
require scarification (weakening or opening the seed coat to promote 
germination) or gradual seed coat degradation to germinate (Wall 2011, 
pers. comm. in 77 FR 29078, May 16, 2012, p. 29095). SCI lotus is 
thought to have high long-term survival in the seed bank. Germination 
rates for seed stored for 6 years only dropped from 80 percent to 76 
percent; one seed lot displayed 65 percent germination after more than 
30 years in storage (Cheryl Birker 2017, pers. comm. in Vanderplank et 
al. 2019, p. 6).
    The majority (67 percent) of SCI lotus's genetic variability is 
found among, rather than within, occurrences (Allan 1999, p. 61). 
However, more recent genetic work (McGlauglin et al. 2018, p. 754) has 
shown moderate levels of genetic diversity in the species, with gene 
flow between neighbor populations. The genetic diversity of SCI lotus 
is equal to or higher than that of the mainland variety of the same 
species, Acmispon dendroideus var. dendroideus, and SCI lotus also 
contains unique and highly divergent genotypes (Wallace et al. 2017, 
pp. 747-748). SCI lotus has hybridized with A. argophyllus var. 
argenteus in disturbed areas in Wilson Cove (Liston et al. 1990, pp. 
239-240; Allan 1999, p. 86). Based on intermediate characteristics, the 
hybrid plants appear to be first generation (F1 generation) plants from 
a cross between the two varieties. It is not known whether these plants 
are capable of producing viable seeds by backcrossing between the 
hybrids or with the putative parent plants (Allan 1999, p. 86).
    The fire tolerance of SCI lotus is not well understood. Based on 
SCI lotus's growth characteristics and occurrence increases in areas 
affected by fire, and the fire adaptations of related taxa, SCI lotus 
may be resilient to at least occasional fire. Because it is short-lived 
and likely relies on its seed bank for recruitment, fire may benefit 
this taxon by opening up areas of bare ground for seedling germination 
(USFWS 2007, p. 7). However, frequent fires could exceed its tolerance 
of fire severity and frequency and exhaust the seed bank in repeatedly 
burned areas (USFWS 2007, p. 11; USFWS 2020d, pp. 20-21).

San Clemente Island Larkspur

    A thorough review of the taxonomy, life history, and ecology of the 
San Clemente Island larkspur is presented in the SSA report (USFWS 
2020c). The San Clemente Island larkspur (Delphinium variegatum ssp. 
kinkiense) is an herbaceous perennial in the buttercup family 
(Ranunculaceae). It grows 6 to 33 in (14 to 85 cm) in height but 
generally is less than 20 in (50 cm) tall (Koontz and Warnock 2012). 
The flowers are light blue to white in color and are bilaterally 
symmetrical with five petal-like sepals and four smaller petals. The 
uppermost sepal is a straight or downcurved spur that is characteristic 
for the genus.
    SCI larkspur is one of two subspecies of Delphinium variegatum that 
occur exclusively on SCI, the other being Thorne's larkspur (Delphinium 
variegatum spp. thornei). The island subspecies are currently 
distinguished primarily by flower color, with Thorne's larkspur 
generally having bright blue (i.e., darker), slightly larger flowers 
than the SCI larkspur, which generally has white flowers, consistent 
with distinctions noted in earlier works (Dodd and Helenurm 2000, p. 
125; Koontz and Warnock 2012). SCI larkspur occurs mostly in the 
northern portion of the island, and Thorne's larkspur occurs in the 
southern portion of the island. However, in the middle of the island 
(and on the far southern end), the two flower colors coexist in many 
locations, with varying proportions of each color, and flower colors 
ranging from pure white to dark purple. While ambiguity of the 
subspecies classifications, mostly within the central areas of the 
island, has caused some confusion regarding true range and 
distribution, the currently accepted taxonomic treatment recognizes the 
two subspecies and is followed in our assessment.
    The historical range and distribution of SCI larkspur on SCI is 
unknown because botanical studies were not completed before the plant's 
decline. The final listing rule (42 FR 40682, August 11, 1977) did not 
provide specific information regarding the SCI larkspur's distribution 
and abundance. The 1984 recovery plan noted that the subspecies 
occurred in 6 or 7 locations (USFWS 1984, pp. 17, 35). The true range 
and distribution of SCI larkspur on SCI is somewhat unknown due to the 
ambiguity of the subspecies classifications, particularly in the 
central areas of the island where SCI larkspur and Thorne's larkspur 
co-occur, as do plants exhibiting characteristics intermediate between 
the two subspecies. While various delineations have been used to 
classify mixed occurrences (USFWS 2020c, p. 22), SCI larkspur is 
generally found mid-island on gentle slopes on the eastern side of the 
island, although the species has also been detected at higher 
elevations on the west side of the island (see Figure 5, below). Since 
grazing pressure was removed on SCI, both subspecies of Delphinium 
variegatum have been noted to have expanded dramatically (O'Brien 2019, 
pers. comm.). The species' ability to go dormant also contributes to 
difficulties in determining population counts. The current distribution 
and abundance estimate of SCI larkspur is 18,956 individuals within 22 
watersheds (see Figure 5, below). Occupancy at two additional 
watersheds has been reported, but population counts are not available 
at these locations (USFWS 2020c, pp, v., 36).

[[Page 23894]]

[GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] TP05MY21.004

BILLING CODE 4333-15-C
    SCI larkspur was once associated with two main vegetation types: 
California Broadleaf woodlands and forests (which encompasses 
approximately 43.5 ac (17 ha), or 0.12 percent, of the island), and 
California perennial grassland (which encompasses approximately 2,213.5 
ac (895 ha), or 6.3 percent, of the island) (Navy 2013). The species is 
now found in a broad range of habitats within the same general 
vegetation types and is widespread across the island. SCI larkspur is 
generally found within mid- to high-elevation grasslands on the east 
side of the northern and central portions of the island where it occurs 
in clay, loam, and rocky soils with soil depths ranging from shallow to 
deep; however, it is more often associated with non-clay soils 
(Vanderplank et al., in prep.).

[[Page 23895]]

Reported habitats have included coastal grasslands (Koontz and Warnock 
2012), as well as grassy slopes and benches, open grassy terraces, and 
chaparral and oak woods (Warnock 1993 in USFWS 2008a). Currently, SCI 
larkspur occurs primarily on the east side of the island on gentle 
slopes with northern, northwestern, and eastern exposures. The higher-
elevation plateau supports grasslands dominated by the native perennial 
bunch-grasses interspersed with annual forbs while the mid- and lower-
elevation grasslands tend to be less floristically diverse and 
dominated by introduced annual grasses. They are primarily found within 
vegetation communities dominated by Artemisia californica, nonnative 
grasslands, and Baccharis pilularis (Vanderplank et al., in prep.).
    Flower production in Delphinium can be highly variable and may be 
dependent upon quite localized weather conditions (Lewis and Epling 
1959, p. 512) and soil moisture (Inouye et al. 2002, pp. 545, 549). 
Plants may not flower until reaching 2 to 3 years of age (e.g., Waser 
and Price 1985, p. 1727 in reference to D. nelsonii).
    SCI larkspur generally flowers from March to April (California 
Native Plant Society 2001, in USFWS 2008a), but has been documented 
flowering from January to April (Koontz and Warnock 2012). Blue and 
white flowered Delphinium species are largely pollinated by bumblebees 
(Waser and Price 1983, p. 343; Waddington 1981, p. 154). Several 
different species of pollinators have been observed visiting SCI 
larkspur (USFWS 2020c, p. 28; Junak and Wilken 1998, p. 120; Munson 
2019, pers. comm.; SERG 2015b, p. 13). Given the spur-length of San 
Clemente Island larkspur, bumblebees or hummingbirds may be the primary 
pollinators (Jabbour et al. 2009, p. 814). Successful outcrossing 
within island populations indicates that pollination is effective; 
therefore, populations of pollinators are likely to be ample.
    Like most other California larkspurs, SCI larkspur can survive 
below ground when conditions are unfavorable and may remain dormant and 
not appear above-ground for one or more years. The species begins to go 
dormant shortly after flowering, remaining dormant until early in the 
rainy season. Although we have no information on the lifespan of SCI 
larkspur, based on information regarding other species of larkspurs, it 
is likely that the subspecies is relatively long-lived (USFWS 2020c, p. 
28). Because of the species' ability to go dormant, and additionally 
because flower production in Delphinium can be highly variable and may 
be dependent upon quite localized weather conditions, exact numbers of 
individuals are difficult to locate and count.
    In comparison with other endemic plant species, Delphinium 
variegatum appears to be typical in its pattern of genetic diversity 
relative to its geographic range at both the population and taxon 
levels (Dodd and Helenurm 2002, p. 619). However, in comparison with 
other Delphinium, the genetic variation observed for the insular taxa 
of D. variegatum appears to be low. The data suggest that there is a 
higher level of gene flow among adjacent populations. If estimates of 
historical gene flow are indicative of current patterns, then gene flow 
among the 24 island populations studied appears to be high enough to 
prevent genetic differentiation among them. This is consistent with the 
general low level of genetic differentiation found among populations of 
other species in the genus Delphinium (Dodd and Helenurm 2002, pp. 619-
620).
    Little is known regarding the fire tolerance of SCI larkspur. 
However, its dormancy period (roughly May or June through November) and 
the fire season generally coincide (O'Connor 2019, pers. comm.; Navy 
2009, p. 4.22). The possible benefits of fire to SCI larkspur include 
reduction in competitive shading and/or nutrient uptake, which would 
likely increase flowering and possibly visibility to pollinators.

Recovery Criteria

    Section 4(f) of the Act directs us to develop and implement 
recovery plans for the conservation and survival of endangered and 
threatened species unless we determine that such a plan will not 
promote the conservation of the species. Recovery plans must, to the 
maximum extent practicable, include objective, measurable criteria 
which, when met, would result in a determination, in accordance with 
the provisions of section 4 of the Act, that the species be removed 
from the Lists.
    Recovery plans provide a roadmap for us and our partners on methods 
of enhancing conservation and minimizing threats to listed species, as 
well as measurable criteria against which to evaluate progress towards 
recovery and assess the species' likely future condition. However, they 
are not regulatory documents and do not substitute for the 
determinations and promulgation of regulations required under section 
4(a)(1) of the Act. A decision to revise the status of a species, or to 
delist a species, is ultimately based on an analysis of the best 
scientific and commercial data available to determine whether a species 
is no longer an endangered species or a threatened species, regardless 
of whether that information differs from the recovery plan.
    There are many paths to accomplishing recovery of a species, and 
recovery may be achieved without all of the criteria in a recovery plan 
being fully met. For example, one or more criteria may be exceeded 
while other criteria may not yet be accomplished. In that instance, we 
may determine that the threats are minimized sufficiently and that the 
species is robust enough that it no longer meets the definition of an 
endangered species or a threatened species under the Act. In other 
cases, we may discover new recovery opportunities after having 
finalized the recovery plan. Parties seeking to conserve the species 
may use these opportunities instead of methods identified in the 
recovery plan. Likewise, we may learn new information about the species 
after we finalize the recovery plan. The new information may change the 
extent to which existing criteria are appropriate for identifying 
recovery of the species. The recovery of a species is a dynamic process 
requiring adaptive management that may, or may not, follow all of the 
guidance provided in a recovery plan.
    In 1984, we published the Recovery Plan for the Endangered and 
Threatened Species of the California Channel Islands (recovery plan) 
that addresses the five species addressed in this proposed rule, plus 
some additional species (USFWS 1984). The recovery plan preceded the 
1988 amendments to the Act outlining required elements of recovery 
plans. As such, the recovery plan does not include recovery criteria, 
but followed guidance in effect at the time it was finalized. Rather 
than including specific criteria for determining when threats have been 
removed or sufficiently minimized, the recovery plan identifies six 
objectives to achieve recovery of the Channel Island species. Given the 
threats in common to the species addressed, the recovery plan is broad 
in scope and focuses on restoration of habitats and ecosystem function. 
The six objectives identified in the recovery plan are:
     Objective 1: Identify present adverse impacts to 
biological resources and strive to eliminate them.
     Objective 2: Protect known resources from further 
degradation by: (a) Removing feral herbivores, carnivores, and selected 
exotic plant species; (b) controlling erosion in sensitive locations; 
and (c) directing military operations and adverse

[[Page 23896]]

recreational uses away from biologically sensitive areas.
     Objective 3: Restore habitats by revegetation of disturbed 
areas using native species.
     Objective 4: Identify areas of San Clemente Island where 
habitat restoration and population increase of certain addressed taxa 
may be achieved through a careful survey of the island and research on 
habitat requirements of each taxon.
     Objective 5: Delist or downlist those taxa that achieve 
vigorous, self-sustaining population levels as the result of habitat 
stabilization, habitat restoration, and prevention or minimization of 
adverse human-related impacts.
     Objective 6: Monitor effectiveness of recovery effort by 
undertaking baseline quantitative studies and subsequent follow-up work 
(USFWS 1984, pp. 106-107).
    The Navy has taken a variety of recovery actions to achieve the 
recovery plan's objectives. These include:
     Removal of all feral herbivores, which was achieved in 
1992.
     Monitoring and control of the expansion of highly 
invasive, nonnative plant species on an ongoing basis since the 1990s 
(O'Connor 2019, pers. comm.).
     Implementing a nonnative wildlife program, which focuses 
on island-wide nonnative predator management, initiated by the Navy in 
1992 (USFWS 2008, p. 172).
     Conducting and funding surveys, research, and monitoring 
to better understand the ecology and habitat requirements of sensitive 
species, and monitor their status and the effectiveness of recovery 
efforts.
     Conducting long-term vegetation monitoring studies.
     Conducting propagation and outplanting (transplant 
individuals from the greenhouse to vegetative communities) of native 
species through a contract with the San Diego State University Soil 
Ecology and Restoration Group (SERG) since 2001 (Howe 2009, pers. 
comm.; Munson 2013, pers. comm.). Although most of the restoration 
efforts were not specifically designed for the benefit of the species 
addressed in this proposed rule, restoration of the island's vegetation 
communities has helped to improve habitat suitability for the subject 
species by reducing the spread of invasive, nonnative plants and 
restoring ecological processes.
     Conducting annual reviews of fire management and fire 
occurrences, allowing for adaptive management to minimize the frequency 
and spread of fires. For example, in 2017, after a large fire that 
burned part of the eastern escarpment had seemingly gone out, the fire 
restarted the next day and response was therefore delayed. This 
prompted a change in how the Navy monitors fires that are thought to be 
out (O'Connor 2019, pers. comm.).
     Addressing training-related erosion through development of 
an erosion control plan (Navy 2013b, entire). The Navy incorporates 
erosion control measures into all site feasibility studies to minimize 
impacts from erosion and avoid impacts to listed species.
    Contributions to meeting the recovery objectives include adoption 
and implementation of the SCI Integrated Natural Resources Management 
Plan (INRMP). The Navy adopted the SCI INRMP in 2002 (Navy 2002, 
entire) and updated it again in 2013 (Navy 2013a, entire). An INRMP is 
intended to guide installation commanders in managing their natural 
resources in a manner that is consistent with the sustainability of 
those resources, while ensuring continued support of the military 
mission (Navy 2002, p. 1-1). The INRMP identifies goals and objectives 
for specified management units and their natural resources, including 
measures to protect, monitor, restore, and manage special status 
species and their habitats. The Navy identifies and addresses threats 
to special status species during the INRMP planning process. If 
possible, threats are ameliorated, eliminated, or mitigated through 
this procedure.
    The SCI INRMP outlines management actions for invasive species 
control island-wide, including near listed species; biosecurity 
protocols; restoration of sites that support sensitive plants; habitat 
enhancement for sensitive and listed species; fuel break installation 
to minimize fire spread; and fire suppression to protect endangered, 
threatened, and other priority species. The Navy also developed and 
implements specific plans for some management issues, including: SCI 
Wildland Fire Management Plan; Erosion Control Plan; and the Naval 
Auxiliary Landing Field San Clemente Island Biosecurity Plan. For 
additional details on the Navy's implementation of recovery efforts, 
see ``Conservation Actions and Regulatory Mechanisms,'' below.
    Interim progress on achieving the recovery objectives resulted in 
improvements in the status of SCI paintbrush and SCI lotus such that 
our 2007 5-year reviews recommended reclassification (USFWS 2007a, b), 
and both species were subsequently reclassified from endangered species 
to threatened species (July 26, 2013; 78 FR 45406). We also recommended 
in our 2007 5-year review for SCI bush-mallow and 2008 5-year review 
for SCI larkspur that they be reclassified as threatened (USFWS 2007c; 
USFWS 2008).
    While the recovery plan did not include specific metrics, the 
plan's objectives have largely been achieved for these five species 
through removal of nonnative herbivores and subsequent recovery of 
native plant communities, and through restoration and management 
actions implemented by the Navy to improve habitat and control threats 
related to erosion, invasive species, fire, and land use. As a result 
of these actions, habitat has been sufficiently restored and managed on 
the island and supports self-sustaining populations for each of these 
five taxa.

Regulatory and Analytical Framework

Regulatory Framework

    Section 4 of the Act (16 U.S.C. 1533) and its implementing 
regulations (50 CFR part 424) set forth the procedures for determining 
whether a species is an ``endangered species'' or a ``threatened 
species.'' The Act defines an endangered species as a species that is 
``in danger of extinction throughout all or a significant portion of 
its range,'' and a threatened species as a species that is ``likely to 
become an endangered species within the foreseeable future throughout 
all or a significant portion of its range.'' The Act requires that we 
determine whether any species is an ``endangered species'' or a 
``threatened species'' because of any of the following factors:
    (A) The present or threatened destruction, modification, or 
curtailment of its habitat or range;
    (B) Overutilization for commercial, recreational, scientific, or 
educational purposes;
    (C) Disease or predation;
    (D) The inadequacy of existing regulatory mechanisms; or
    (E) Other natural or manmade factors affecting its continued 
existence.
    These factors represent broad categories of natural or human-caused 
actions or conditions that could have an effect on a species' continued 
existence. In evaluating these actions and conditions, we look for 
those that may have a negative effect on individuals of the species, as 
well as other actions or conditions that may ameliorate any negative 
effects or may have positive effects. We consider these same five 
factors in reclassifying a species from an endangered species to a 
threatened species or removing a species from the Lists (50 CFR 
424.11(c) through (e)).

[[Page 23897]]

    We use the term ``threat'' to refer in general to actions or 
conditions that are known to or are reasonably likely to negatively 
affect individuals of a species. The term ``threat'' includes actions 
or conditions that have a direct impact on individuals (direct 
impacts), as well as those that affect individuals through alteration 
of their habitat or required resources (stressors). The term ``threat'' 
may encompass--either together or separately--the source of the action 
or condition or the action or condition itself.
    However, the mere identification of any threat(s) does not 
necessarily mean that the species meets the statutory definition of an 
``endangered species'' or a ``threatened species.'' In determining 
whether a species meets either definition, we must evaluate all 
identified threats by considering the species' expected response and 
the effects of the threats--in light of those actions and conditions 
that will ameliorate the threats--on an individual, population, and 
species level. We evaluate each threat and its expected effects on the 
species, then analyze the cumulative effect of all of the threats on 
the species as a whole. We also consider the cumulative effect of the 
threats in light of those actions and conditions that will have 
positive effects on the species--such as any existing regulatory 
mechanisms or conservation efforts. The Secretary determines whether 
the species meets the definition of an ``endangered species'' or a 
``threatened species'' only after conducting this cumulative analysis 
and describing the expected effect on the species now and in the 
foreseeable future.
    The Act does not define the term ``foreseeable future,'' which 
appears in the statutory definition of ``threatened species.'' Our 
implementing regulations at 50 CFR 424.11(d) set forth a framework for 
evaluating the foreseeable future on a case-by-case basis. The term 
foreseeable future extends only so far into the future as we can 
reasonably determine that both the future threats and the species' 
responses to those threats are likely. In other words, the foreseeable 
future is the period of time in which we can make reliable predictions. 
``Reliable'' does not mean ``certain''; it means sufficient to provide 
a reasonable degree of confidence in the prediction. Thus, a prediction 
is reliable if it is reasonable to depend on it when making decisions.
    It is not always possible or necessary to define foreseeable future 
as a particular number of years. Analysis of the foreseeable future 
uses the best scientific and commercial data available and should 
consider the timeframes applicable to the relevant threats and to the 
species' likely responses to those threats in view of its life-history 
characteristics. Data that are typically relevant to assessing the 
species' biological response include species-specific factors such as 
lifespan, reproductive rates or productivity, certain behaviors, and 
other demographic factors. In our analyses presented below, we expect 
the Navy's current level of training as well as its management of 
natural resources on SCI to continue well into the future, including 
management of threats, such as minimizing impacts of training, and 
managing erosion, invasive species, and wildland fire. However, as 
described below (see Climate Change), uncertainty regarding effects of 
a changing climate increases after 20-30 years, making reliable 
predictions after this time period difficult. We used this 20-30 year 
timeframe in developing our projections of future conditions in each of 
the species status assessments for the five species.

Analytical Framework

    The SSA reports document the results of our comprehensive 
biological review of the best scientific and commercial data regarding 
the status of the species, including assessments of the potential 
threats to the species. The SSA reports do not represent our decisions 
on whether any of the species should be delisted or reclassified under 
the Act. They do, however, provide the scientific basis that informs 
our regulatory decisions, which involve the further application of 
standards within the Act and its implementing regulations and policies. 
The following is a summary of the key results and conclusions from the 
SSA reports; the full SSA reports can be found at Docket No. FWS-R8-ES-
2020-0074 on https://www.regulations.gov.
    To assess species viability, we used the three conservation biology 
principles of resiliency, redundancy, and representation (Shaffer and 
Stein 2000, pp. 306-310). Briefly, resiliency supports the ability of 
the species to withstand environmental and demographic stochasticity 
(for example, wet or dry, warm or cold years); redundancy supports the 
ability of the species to withstand catastrophic events (for example, 
droughts, large pollution events); and representation supports the 
ability of the species to adapt over time to long-term changes in the 
environment (for example, climate changes). In general, the more 
resilient and redundant a species is and the more representation it 
has, the more likely it is to sustain populations over time, even under 
changing environmental conditions. Using these principles, we 
identified the species' ecological requirements for survival and 
reproduction at the individual, population, and species levels, and 
described the beneficial and risk factors influencing the species' 
viability.
    The SSA process can be categorized into three sequential stages. 
During the first stage, we evaluated individual species' life-history 
needs. The next stage involved an assessment of the historical and 
current condition of the species' demographics and habitat 
characteristics, including an explanation of how the species arrived at 
its current condition. The final stage of the SSA involved making 
predictions about the species' responses to positive and negative 
environmental and anthropogenic influences. Throughout all of these 
stages, we used the best available information to characterize 
viability as the ability of a species to sustain populations in the 
wild over time. We use this information to inform our regulatory 
decisions.

Summary of Biological Status and Threats

    Below, we review the biological condition of the species and their 
resources, and the threats that influence the species' current and 
future condition, in order to assess the species' overall viability and 
the risks to that viability.
    Each of the five SCI species occurs as a single population with no 
natural division in their ranges. However, for assessing species 
resilience and for monitoring and tracking the plant species in the 
future, we divided the species' ranges into watershed units to quantify 
threats across the range. Watersheds were suggested for use in 
delineation for monitoring purposes by the Navy (Vanderplank et al. 
2019, pp. 6-7), as every point on the island can be easily assigned to 
a watershed, and watershed boundaries on SCI are not expected to change 
significantly during the 20- to 30-year time frame of this analysis. 
These units are not meant to represent ``populations'' in a biological 
sense; rather, these units were designed to subdivide the species' 
ranges in a way that facilitates assessing and reporting the variation 
in current and future resilience across the range. In the SSAs for the 
plant species, we assessed the species' ability to withstand stochastic 
events in each watershed, and how these occupied watersheds contribute 
to the viability of the entire island population (the species). Note 
that this way of delineating analysis units within which to measure

[[Page 23898]]

resiliency does not follow the methods used in the July 26, 2013, rule 
reclassifying SCI paintbrush and SCI lotus (78 FR 45406), and it is 
therefore not directly comparable. However, the watersheds that are 
represented correspond to the extant occurrences described in the July 
26, 2013, reclassification rule (USFWS 2020d, pp. 82-85; USFWS 2020e, 
pp. 89-92).
    In assessing species resilience for SC Bell's sparrow, we followed 
the approach for surveys of annual sparrow densities. Those annual 
surveys divide the island into eight vegetation strata. Because 
densities vary greatly among these strata each year, and because these 
strata are used for annual monitoring, we assess the resiliency of the 
subspecies within each of these strata in terms of the estimated 
population size, but then scale up from these strata to the resiliency 
of the subspecies. These vegetation strata are not meant to represent 
``populations'' in a biological sense; as with the plant species, these 
units were designed to subdivide the species' range in a way that 
facilitates assessing and reporting the variation in current and future 
resilience across the range.

Species Needs

    Our SSA framework generally includes identifying the species' 
ecological requirements for survival and reproduction at the 
individual, population, and species levels. However, population-level 
and species-level needs, such as number of individuals or reproductive 
success necessary to maintain an occurrence, level of gene flow or 
dispersal, etc., are not well understood for any of the five species. 
Where information is lacking or incomplete, we make certain scientific 
assumptions based on principles of conservation biology in order to 
conduct our analyses. In each of the plant SSAs, we make the assumption 
that, for the plant species, numbers of individuals within a watershed 
correlates with greater resilience and, conversely, watersheds with 
fewer individuals or with only one location within the watershed have 
lower resiliency. Similarly, for SC Bell's sparrow, our models in the 
SSA assume that density correlates with greater resilience, and that 
vegetative strata with greater densities have greater resilience.

Risk Factors for the San Clemente Island Species

    We reviewed the potential risk factors (i.e., threats, stressors) 
that could be affecting the five SCI species now and in the foreseeable 
future. In this proposed rule, we will discuss only those factors in 
detail that could meaningfully impact the status of the species. Those 
risks that are not known or unlikely to have effects on the status of 
the SCI species, such as disease or seed predation, are not discussed 
here, but are evaluated in the SSA reports. Many of the threats and 
risk factors are the same or similar for each of the species. Where the 
effects are expected to be similar, we present one discussion that 
applies to all species. Where the effects may be unique or different to 
one species, we address that species specifically. Many of the risk 
factors affect both habitat (quantity and quality) and individuals of 
the species (disturbance, injury, or mortality). The primary risk 
factors (i.e., threats) affecting all the SCI species are: (1) Past and 
current land use, including military training activities (Factors A and 
E from the Act); (2) erosion (Factor A); (3) invasive species (Factors 
A and E); (4) fire and fire management (Factors A and E); and (5) 
climate change (Factors A and E). Additional risk factors for some of 
the species include predation (Factor C), drought (Factors A and E), 
small population size (Factor E), and reduced genetic diversity (Factor 
E). Finally, we also reviewed the conservation efforts being undertaken 
for the species.
Past Land Use
    The current habitat conditions for listed species on SCI are partly 
the result of historical land use practices. SCI was used legally and 
illegally for sheep ranching, cattle ranching, goat grazing, and pig 
farming (77 FR 29078, May 16, 2012, p. 29093; Navy 2013a, p. 2-3). 
Goats and sheep were introduced early by the Europeans, and cattle, 
pigs, and mule deer were introduced in the 1950s and 1960s (Navy 2013a, 
p. 3-185). These nonnative herbivores greatly changed the vegetation of 
SCI and were the main cause of the SCI species' decline (42 FR 40682, 
August 11, 1977, p. 40683). Persistent grazing and browsing defoliated 
large areas of the island, and the animals caused trampling and trail 
proliferation, which exacerbated erosion, altering plant communities on 
SCI and leading to severe habitat degradation and loss of suitable 
habitat that likely curtailed the range of endemic plants and animals 
on the island. Grazing and ranching on the island also facilitated the 
introduction and spread of nonnative plants (Navy 2002, p. 3-31).
    All nonnative ungulates were removed by 1992 (Keegan et al. 1994, 
p. 58; 77 FR 29078, May 16, 2012, p. 29093). Since then, the vegetation 
on SCI has rebounded, and habitat conditions have improved, leading to 
changes in the cover of native and nonnative plants on the island, 
further evidenced by the increases in endangered and threatened taxa 
since the feral animals were removed (Junak 2006a, pers. comm.; Uyeda 
et al. 2019, pp. 6, 22, 30). While nonnative herbivores have been 
successfully removed and are no longer directly affecting native plant 
communities, continuing impacts include areas vulnerable to erosion 
that have not fully recovered, the presence of invasive species, and 
the interaction of nonnative grasses with fire. The past and continuing 
effects of erosion, invasive species, and fire are discussed further 
below.
Overview of Current Land Use
    SCI is owned by the Navy, and is the primary maritime training area 
for the Pacific Fleet and Sea Air and Land Teams (77 FR 29078, May 16, 
2012). The island also supports training by the Marine Corps, the Air 
Force, the Army, and other military organizations. As the westernmost 
training range in the eastern Pacific Basin, where training operations 
are performed prior to troop deployments, portions of the island 
receive intensive use by the military (Navy 2008a, p. 2.2).
    Infrastructure, including runways, buildings, and associated 
development, is concentrated at the northern end of the island. The 
remainder of the island is largely devoid of infrastructure, except for 
the ridge road running along the spine of the island. In addition to 
existing infrastructure, various training activities occur within 
training areas on the island, and have the potential to affect the SCI 
species (see Table 3, below). Altogether, 34.8 percent of the island's 
area is located in one of these training areas, although training does 
not occur uniformly within each area. Military training activities 
within some of these training areas can involve the movement of 
vehicles and troops over the landscape and can include live munitions 
fire, incendiary devices, demolitions, and bombardment.
    The Shore Bombardment Area (SHOBA) occupies roughly the southern 
third of the island and encompasses approximately 13,824 ac (5,594 ha) 
(Navy 2008a, p. 2-7, Navy 2009, p. 2-4). Areas of intensive use within 
SHOBA include two Impact Areas and three Training Areas and Ranges 
(TARs). Impact Areas support naval gun firing, artillery firing, and 
air-to-ground bombing (Navy 2008a, p. 2-7; Navy 2013a, p. 2-8). Much of 
the remainder of SHOBA serves as a buffer around Impact Areas; thus, 59 
percent of SHOBA is not within intensive training

[[Page 23899]]

areas subject to direct training activities. Some areas, particularly 
the escarpment along the eastern coast, have limited training value 
because precipitous terrain hinders ground access.
    Due to these various military training activities, land use has 
been considered a threat to listed species on SCI. Training and other 
land use activities have multiple potential impacts, including 
trampling or crushing individuals or groups of plants; disturbance of 
nesting birds or injury or mortality of nestlings; and habitat impacts 
including disturbances to soil and vegetation, spread of nonnative 
plant species, creation of road ruts and trails, compaction of soils, 
and fires (USFWS 2008b, pp. 96-99). Erosion, nonnative species, and 
fire are discussed separately from military training in this proposed 
rule.

                Table 3--Summary of Training Areas, Their Size, Use, and the Threats Within Each
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                     Percent of
          Training area             Size (acres)      island *             Use               Threat/stressor
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Assault Vehicle Maneuver Areas            1,060.5             2.9  Vehicular            Soil erosion, trampling,
 (AVMAs) (3).                                                       maneuvering.         devegetation (habitat
                                                                                         removal); disturbance,
                                                                                         injury, or mortality of
                                                                                         individuals.
Infantry Operations Area.........         8,827.6            24.5  Dispersed foot       Trampling, soil erosion;
                                                                    traffic.             disturbance, injury, or
                                                                                         mortality of
                                                                                         individuals.
Training Areas and Ranges (TARs)          1,968.2             5.5  Varies by TAR:       Varies by TAR, but
 (20).                                                              demolition, small    limited to trampling,
                                                                    arms, combat, etc.   localized ground
                                                                                         disturbance;
                                                                                         disturbance, injury, or
                                                                                         mortality of
                                                                                         individuals.
Impact Areas (2).................         3,399.7             9.4  Bombing, live fire.  Devegetation (habitat
                                                                                         removal), fires;
                                                                                         disturbance, injury, or
                                                                                         mortality of
                                                                                         individuals.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* Because several training areas overlap, percentages total more than the 34.8 percent of the island's area
  located in training areas.

Land Use for Military Training
    Plants--Military training activities within training areas 
(primarily the Infantry Operations Area, TARs, and AVMAs) can entail 
the movement of vehicles and troops over the landscape and thus include 
the potential of trampling or crushing individuals or groups of plants, 
or removal of habitat. Naval gun firing, artillery firing, and air-to-
ground bombing occurs within the Impact Areas, and can result in the 
destruction of habitat, injury or mortality of individual plants, and 
fires. Where the distributions of the plant taxa overlap with training 
areas, there is potential for impacts to individuals and to habitat. 
Table 4, below, details the number of locations, individuals, and 
percent of population of each of the plant taxa that occur within 
training areas. Percent of populations within training areas range from 
less than 1 percent to 13 percent. However, not all of the land within 
each training area is used for training, and frequency and intensity of 
training vary among areas and uses, such that only a subset of 
individuals within any training area is likely to be affected. 
Additionally, some effects are minor, such as trampled leaves or broken 
branches (i.e., injury but not mortality), and frequency of training 
impacts may allow sufficient time for individuals and habitats to 
recover.

     Table 4--The Numbers of Locations and Total Individuals of Plant Taxa That Occur Within Training Areas
                [USFWS 2020b, p. 45; USFWS 2020c, p. 52; USFWS 2020d, p. 36; USFWS 2020e, p. 37]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                                    Percent of
                     Species                         Locations      Watersheds      Individuals     population
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SCI paintbrush..................................              74              19           2,089            4.34
SCI lotus.......................................               4               4              22            0.11
SCI larkspur....................................              10               4           1,847            9.74
SCI bush-mallow.................................              42               1             731              13
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    San Clemente Bell's sparrow--SC Bell's sparrows may be adversely 
affected in habitat within and surrounding training areas. Adverse 
effects include modification and degradation of habitat, as well as the 
disturbance, injury, or death of individual SC Bell's sparrows (more 
likely nestlings and fledglings), and loss of active SC Bell's sparrow 
nests, such as from trampling of nests or nestlings (USFWS 2008, p. 
174). Currently, 4,788 ha (11,831 ac) of potential SC Bell's sparrow 
habitat falls within a training area. Based on the 2018 territory 
density estimates, this represents 25 percent of the total island 
population (USFWS 20202a, p. 49). Because training activities in each 
area vary widely and SC Bell's sparrow density also varies, potential 
impacts vary by area. Because not all of the land within each training 
area is used for training, and frequency and intensity of training vary 
among areas and uses, only a subset of individuals within any training 
area is likely to be affected. Additionally, many effects are expected 
to be infrequent, temporary, or minor, such as flushing of birds. 
Monitoring from 2015 to 2018 of two TARs located within high-density SC 
Bell's sparrow habitat within boxthorn do not indicate major impacts to 
SC Bell's sparrow densities due to training in these TARs, and SC 
Bell's sparrows continue to inhabit these areas (Meiman et al. 2019, 
pp. 9, 20-23, 38-39), indicating that impacts are limited or temporary.
    Summary--While military training activities have the potential to 
impact all five SCI species, the majority of locations and habitats 
occur outside intensive training areas. Within training areas that 
overlap with the species' distributions, many effects are expected to 
be infrequent, minor, or temporary. Additionally, the Navy's INRMP 
(Navy 2013a) outlines measures for managing land and water resources on 
the island, including listed and sensitive species. The INRMP includes 
measures to avoid and minimize impacts, as well as to restore and 
manage habitat. Military

[[Page 23900]]

training activities are expected to continue into the future. 
Generally, training is expected to continue within the current 
footprint, but intensity of training could increase in the future. 
However, changes to training have and will be subject to environmental 
review under applicable laws and regulations, and impacts to federally 
listed and sensitive species will be evaluated (O'Connor 2019, pers. 
comm.). Projects and changes in training areas are subject to the 
Navy's Site Approval and Review Process, which includes identifying 
avoidance and minimization measures for plant communities and sensitive 
species, including measures that are recommended in the SCI INRMP (Navy 
2013a, pp. 4-23, 4-28). Coupled with ongoing management of related 
threats (including wildland fire, soil erosion, invasive species) under 
the SCI INRMP, it is highly unlikely that future changes in military 
training on SCI will impede or reverse advances in the recovery of 
these five species (O'Conner 2019, pers. comm.).
Invasive and Nonnative Species
    Along with the introduction of feral, nonnative herbivores, many 
other nonnative species have been introduced to the island. While 
nonnative, feral grazers have been completely removed from SCI, other 
nonnative species have become established and have the potential to 
negatively affect species and their habitats. These include feral cats 
(Felis catus), black rats (Rattus rattus), and many species of 
nonnative plants, especially nonnative annual grasses. Feral cats and 
black rats can prey on eggs, chicks, and adult SC Bell's sparrows. 
Nonnative plant species may alter ecological processes and habitats, 
while also directly competing with native plant species.
    Predation by black rats and feral cats--Since listing, predation on 
SC Bell's sparrow by introduced black rats and feral cats, and by 
native predators, has been documented (USFWS 2020a, p. 57). While total 
population sizes of feral cats and black rats on the island are unknown 
and have not been estimated, the Navy conducts management activities 
for both on the island. Nonnative wildlife management implemented 
through the INRMP focuses on control of feral cats throughout the 
island and rodent control near San Clemente loggerhead shrike (Lanius 
ludovicianus mearnsi) nest sites (Meiman et al. 2013, p. 2). This 
program, while unlikely to completely eradicate feral cats and black 
rats, affords some protection to the SC Bell's sparrow, primarily 
through cat removal. Black rats remain commonly recorded nest predators 
(Meiman et al. 2017, pp. 35-36; Meiman et al. 2018, p. 26). Despite the 
persistence of and current inability to eradicate black rats, the SC 
Bell's sparrow population expanded over the past two decades, 
increasing in abundance and distribution.
    Nonnative plants--Contemporaneous with and likely aided by feral 
grazing animals, a large number of invasive, nonnative plant species 
have become naturalized on SCI and are now widespread (USFWS 2020b, pp. 
47-49; USFWS 2020c, pp. 57-58; USFWS 2020d, pp. 40-41; USFWS 2020e, p. 
43). Nonnative plants can alter habitat structure and ecological 
processes such as fire regimes, nutrient cycling, hydrology, and energy 
budgets, and they can directly compete with native plants for water, 
space, light, and nutrients (77 FR 29078, May 16, 2012, p. 29117). In 
addition to altering habitat, potential impacts of nonnative plants on 
the four SCI plant species include precluding germination (i.e., 
competitive exclusion) and reducing or preventing pollination (e.g., by 
growing densely around plants and thereby making them less obvious or 
less accessible to pollinators). The invasion of nonnative annual 
grasses on the island may have caused the greatest structural changes 
to habitat, especially on the coastal terraces and in swales (USFWS 
2007, pp. 4-5). Annual grasses vary in abundance with rainfall, 
potentially changing the vegetation types from shrublands to grasslands 
and increasing the fuel load in wet years and interacting with fire 
(Battlori et al. 2013, p. 1119). The effects of fire are discussed 
separately below.
    While nonnative plants, especially nonnative annual grasses, have 
the potential to adversely affect the listed plant species, nonnative 
grasses are present but not a dominant component of the plant 
communities at the majority of occurrences of the four SCI plant 
species. SCI paintbrush and SCI lotus are often associated with 
vegetation types where nonnative grasses are present but not a dominant 
component of the plant community (Tierra Data Inc. 2005, pp. 29-42; 
Junak and Wilken 1998, p. 261; USFWS 2007, pp. 6-7; Vanderplank et al. 
2019, p. 12). Surveys conducted in 2011 and 2012 found just four 
occurrences (170 individuals) of SCI paintbrush in communities 
dominated by invasive grasses and no SCI lotus in communities dominated 
by nonnative grasses (Vanderplank et al. 2019, p. 12). Nonnative 
grasses do not occur densely within canyons, where SCI bush-mallow 
occurs, and it does not appear as if grasses are expanding, although 
they have been present for many decades.
    SCI larkspur occurs within grasslands that have experienced a 
proliferation of nonnative plant species, especially annual grasses. 
Surveys conducted between 2011 and 2017 found 13 of 74 locations of SCI 
larkspur in communities dominated by invasive grasses (Navy, 
unpublished data; Vanderplank et al., in prep).
    While nonnative plant species, including nonnative annual grasses, 
are extensively distributed across SCI both as a result of post-grazing 
colonization of weedy species in highly disturbed habitat and 
accidental introduction of new weeds through human activities, they do 
not seem to be impeding recovery. Since the removal of feral grazers, 
all vegetation communities have been recovering, and naturalized 
grasslands (the most fire-prone of nonnative vegetation communities) 
constitute a small proportion of the island at this time, approximately 
10.6 percent of the island area (US Navy 2013a, p. 3.59). In addition, 
the island now has more intact habitats, reduced erosion, and a 
stronger suite of native competitor species, making the conditions less 
favorable to invasion. The Navy makes significant efforts to control 
highly invasive, nonnative perennial grasses and nonnative forbs to 
preclude their expansion into habitat areas and areas in which weed 
control would be difficult due to terrain and access challenges, and 
the Navy has monitored and controlled the expansion of highly invasive, 
nonnative plant species on an ongoing basis since the 1990s (O'Connor 
2019, pers. comm.). Many conservation measures to limit the 
introduction and spread of nonnative plants are included in the INRMP 
(Navy 2013a, pp. 3.289-3.290). The recently completed Biosecurity Plan 
(Navy 2016, entire) will also more effectively control the arrival of 
potentially invasive propagules. The plan contains actions recommended 
to avoid introduction of new invasive species and works to prevent and 
respond to new introductions of nonnative species and bio-invasion 
vectors. Despite the existence of nonnative plants on SCI, the four SCI 
plant species have expanded in distribution and abundance since listing 
(42 FR 40682; August 11, 1977).
Erosion
    Degradation of the vegetation due to the browsing of feral goats 
and rooting of feral pigs modified the island's habitat significantly 
and resulted in increased erosion and soil loss over much of the 
island, especially on steep

[[Page 23901]]

slopes where denuded soils could be quickly washed away during storm 
events (Johnson 1980, p. 107; Tierra Data Inc. 2007, pp. 6-7; Navy 
2013a, pp. 3.32-3.33). Since the feral animals were removed, much of 
the vegetation has recovered, and natural erosion on the island has 
decreased significantly (Navy 2013a, p. 3-33, Vanderplank et al. 2019, 
p. 15). Erosion problems currently are limited to localized areas, and 
because of topography and soil characteristics, there always will be 
the potential for localized erosion to occur at sites across the 
island. Periods of heavy rainfall can cause localized erosion, but 
these areas are difficult to predict.
    In addition to erosion caused by past land uses, military training 
activities and the existing road network could lead to erosion that 
could impact species and their habitats. Erosion is a primary concern 
associated with use of the Assault Vehicle Maneuver Corridor (AVMC). To 
address this concern, the Navy is implementing the San Clemente Island 
Erosion Control Plan (Navy 2013b, entire), which includes best 
management practices to prevent, minimize, and restore impacts to 
sensitive resources within the AVMC. Implementation of this plan has 
resulted in prioritization of low-erosion areas within the AVMAs for 
assault vehicle use, and establishment of routes within the AVMAs, to 
reduce loss of vegetation cover and allow for better control of erosion 
(Vanderplank et al. 2019, p. 16).
    The existing road network on SCI includes Ridge Road and 
approximately 188 linear miles of dirt and paved roadways. These roads 
can concentrate water flow, causing incised channels and erosion of 
slopes (Forman and Alexander 1998, pp. 216-217). Increased erosion near 
roads could potentially degrade habitat, especially along the steep 
canyons and ridges. On occasion after particularly heavy rainfall 
events, localized areas of high erosion stemming from roadways have 
been noted; however, regular road maintenance and repair of associated 
damage minimizes the potential for such problems to spread. The SCI 
INRMP includes a management strategy that addresses island-wide 
erosion. Implementation of the SCI INRMP as well as the Erosion Control 
Plan (Navy 2013b, entire), which include best management practices to 
prevent, minimize, and restore impacts to sensitive resources, is 
expected to prevent erosion from adversely affecting the SCI species 
and their habitats.
    Potential for erosion to affect species depends on whether the 
species and their habitats occur on soils or topography prone to 
erosion, and on their proximity to activities that can cause or 
exacerbate erosion. The SSAs used a 30-m (100-ft) buffer around roads 
as an appropriate distance over which negative impacts to habitat could 
be perceptible and should be evaluated. Previously, we considered 
individuals that occur within 152 m (500 ft) of a paved or unpaved road 
vulnerable to habitat degradation (Forman and Alexander 1998, p. 217; 
77 FR 29078, 29102, May 16, 2012). However, based on expert opinion and 
observations on SCI since 2012, increased erosion associated with roads 
does not extend as far from the road network as previously thought 
(O'Connor 2019, pers. comm.). Based on these observations, the buffer 
size was revised for our analysis.
    SCI paintbrush--SCI paintbrush is found mostly on non-clay soils 
that are not prone to piping (formation of underground water channels), 
and no piping or soil erosion channels have been observed in SCI 
paintbrush locations (Vanderplank et al. 2019, p. 16). Only 2 percent 
of individuals detected in the 2011 and 2012 surveys were located in 
areas mapped as clay soils (Vanderplank et al. 2019, p. 16). Along the 
eastern escarpment, SCI paintbrush is found in steep canyons in 
proximity to Ridge Road, the primary road that traverses most of the 
island from northwest to southeast. Roadside occurrences of SCI 
paintbrush may experience runoff during storm events (Navy 2008a, pp. 
G.4, G.8). Of the SCI paintbrush current distribution, 144 individuals 
in 6 watersheds are located within 30 m (100 ft) of a road or the 
Artillery Vehicle Maneuver Road (AVMR) (USFWS 2020e, p. 41). Island-
wide, this represents 7 percent of the total occupied watersheds and 
0.2 percent of the total individuals.
    SCI lotus--Less than 1 percent of the current population of SCI 
lotus occurs within training areas where there is an increased 
potential for erosion caused by military activities. The occurrence of 
SCI lotus in Wilson Cove is in proximity to Navy facilities where 
erosion is caused by construction of buildings and parking lots (USFWS 
2008, p. 117). No individuals have been documented to be affected by 
erosion in this area (SERG 2015, p. 40). Within the current 
distribution, 434 individuals in 6 watersheds are located within 30 m 
(100 ft) of a road (USFWS 2020d, p. 39). Island-wide, this represents 2 
percent of the total locations and 2 percent of the total individuals. 
Locations that could be affected by road impacts (including trampling, 
erosion, and increased invasive species) exist within 5 watersheds. 
Only one of these has 100 percent of their individuals located near a 
road, and all of the rest have fewer than 20 percent of the individuals 
or locations in areas considered in this assessment to be at risk of 
road impacts (USFWS 2020d, p. 39).
    SCI larkspur--Less than 10 percent of the current population of SCI 
larkspur lies within training areas, and none of these plants are 
located in AVMAs, which are the training areas where potential for 
erosion is of greatest concern. Of the distribution considered current, 
only 1 location comprising 70 individuals is located within 30 m (100 
ft) of a road. Island-wide, this represents 1 percent of the total 
locations and 0.3 percent of the total individuals. This location that 
could see road impacts is just one of five in the watershed, comprising 
11 percent of the total individuals in the watershed (USFWS 2020c, p. 
56).
    SCI bush-mallow--Approximately 13 percent of the current population 
of SCI bush-mallow lies within training areas, but none of these plants 
are located in AVMAs, which are the training areas with the greatest 
potential for erosion. No current locations of SCI bush-mallow occur 
within 30 m (100 ft) of a road.
    SC Bell's sparrow--While some habitat for SC Bell's sparrow may be 
affected by erosion, erosion is generally localized (i.e., not 
widespread and limited in size) and is unlikely to affect individuals 
of the sparrow.
    The Navy monitors and evaluates soil erosion on SCI to assess 
priorities for remediation (SERG 2006, entire; SERG 2015, entire), and 
efforts are made through revegetation and outplanting to restore areas 
where erosion occurs (SERG 2016, p. 2). The INRMP requires that all 
projects with potential erosion impacts include soil conservation 
measures for best management practices, choosing sites that are capable 
of sustaining disturbance with minimum soil erosion, and stabilizing 
disturbed sites (Navy 2013a, pp. 3.33-3.37). In addition, the Erosion 
Control Plan includes specific guidelines for the development and 
application of best management practices to minimize soil erosion 
within these training areas, minimize offsite impacts, and prevent soil 
erosion from adversely affecting federally listed or proposed species 
or their habitats and other sensitive resources (Navy 2013b, entire).
    Despite existing levels of soil erosion on the island, the 
distributions of all five species have increased since listing (42 FR 
40682; August 11, 1977). Current erosion issues are localized, and 
erosion is generally decreasing on the island as the vegetation 
continues to recover. Only a small percentage of individuals

[[Page 23902]]

and localities of these species occur within training areas or within 
proximity to roads where activities can cause or exacerbate erosion. 
Although the erosional processes must be considered at an island-wide 
scale, impacts from erosion are not rangewide. Instead, impacts are 
localized (i.e., not widespread and limited in extent) and managed, so 
potential for loss of individuals due to erosion is limited or 
unlikely.
Fire and Fire Management
    Fire is a natural component for regeneration and maintenance of 
many habitats; however, maritime desert scrub communities on SCI are 
not found to have been fire-dependent due to maritime-related humidity, 
limited natural ignition sources, and adaptations of specific 
indigenous plants. The history of fire on the island prior to 1979 is 
largely unknown, but fires were set intermittently during ranching to 
increase the cover of forbs and grasses (Navy 2009, p. 3-2; Navy 2013a, 
p. 3.47). After the island was purchased by the Navy in 1934, fire 
became a more common occurrence throughout much of the island. Since 
1979, over 50 percent of the island has experienced at least one 
wildfire with smaller areas on the island having burned up to 10 times 
between 1979 and 2018 (Navy 2013a, p. 3-47; Navy, unpub. data).
    The number and extent of fires (acres burned) varies annually, as 
does fire severity. Currently, most fires on the island are a result of 
military training and activities. Most large fires are ignited in the 
Impact Areas, with the majority of acreage burned concentrated in SHOBA 
(Navy 2013a, pp. 3-45). Fire severity data (2007 to present) indicate 
that most fires are classified as low severity, with vegetation 
considered lightly burned or scorched. However, 15.6 percent of the 
acreage burned has been of a severity class that has detrimental 
effects on shrubs, considered moderately severe to completely burned. 
At low severity levels, fires have little effect on shrubs, which 
resprout and recover easily (Navy 2009, pp. 4-52). Typically, due to 
the patchy nature of fires, not all areas within a fire footprint are 
burned uniformly; that is, not all plants in a burn polygon are 
necessarily burned or burned at the same severity (SERG 2012, p. 39). 
Although fire ignition points are concentrated in the military training 
areas, fires that escape these areas could potentially spread to other 
areas of the island. However, due to vegetation and topography, fires 
have generally been confined to the same areas (Munson 2019, pers. 
comm.).
    Future increased fire frequency from intensified military use could 
lead to localized changes in vegetation. The Navy significantly 
expanded the number of locations where live fire and demolition 
training can take place in 2008 (USFWS 2008, pp. 21-37). However, while 
the number of acres that burn annually varies greatly, the frequency 
and extent of fire has decreased since the Navy began actively managing 
fire and implementing the Wildland Fire Management Plan (Navy 2009, 
entire; USFWS 2020a, p. 56; USFWS 2020b, pp. 53-54; USFWS 2020c, pp. 
64-65; USFWS 2020d, pp. 45-47; USFWS 2020e, p. 48). The biggest fire 
years between the time of listing and now, in 1985 and 1994, burned 
more than twice the acreage than the two biggest fire years in the last 
15 years (2012 and 2017) and since implementation of the Wildland Fire 
Management Plan (Navy 2009, entire; USFWS 2020a, p. 56; USFWS 2020b, p. 
53-54; USFWS 2020c, pp. 64-65; USFWS 2020d, pp. 45-46; USFWS 2020e, p. 
48).
    Severe fires can kill shrubs and woody vegetation and alter the 
vegetation community, while frequent fires may not allow individuals 
and habitat to recover between fire events and have the potential to 
exceed a plant's capacity to sustain populations by depleting seed 
banks and reducing reproductive output (Zedler et al. 1983, pp. 811-
815). However, effects to individual species depend on the species' 
fire tolerance and on the overlap of its distribution with areas where 
fires are likely to occur.
    Fires can impact plants on San Clemente, but have been generally 
localized, infrequent, and of low severity, and have burned mostly in 
regions where these taxa are not documented (USFWS 2020b, pp. 52, 56; 
USFWS 2020c, pp. 61, 66; USFWS 2020d, pp. 44, 50; USFWS 2020e, pp. 46, 
52). In addition, rhizomes and seed banks can help these plants survive 
and persist post-fire. Though severe fires may kill SCI lotus, some 
plants are likely to survive and resprout after low intensity fires 
(USFWS 2020d, pp. 20). Severe fires may also kill individual SCI 
paintbrush plants, but plants are likely to survive and may benefit 
from low-intensity fires (UWFSW 2020e, pp. 23-24). SCI larkspur does 
not appear to be significantly affected by fire, likely due to its 
dormant period coinciding with periods when fires are more likely 
(USFWS 2020c, pp. 30-31). SCI bush-mallow may be tolerant of fire. Its 
continued presence in areas that have burned and documentation of 
resprouting and recovering after fires indicate it is at least somewhat 
tolerant of fires (USFWS 2020b, p. 25). All four plant species appear 
to have increased in distribution and population size under the current 
fire pattern and fire management.
    While fires have the potential to burn most places on the island, 
land use, vegetation, and historical patterns indicate that fires are 
most likely to burn in the same areas they have historically. Table 5 
indicates the number of locations of each of the plant species that 
have burned (USFWS 2020b, pp. 51-53; USFWS 2020c, pp. 61-65; USFWS 
2020d, pp. 45-49; USFWS 2020e, pp. 47-51). The majority of habitat that 
support these four plant taxa has not burned and less than 10 percent 
of the occupied locations have burned more than once in the past 20 
years (Table 5).

                                 Table 5--Number of Locations and Individuals Affected by Fire Within the Last 20 Years
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                             Number of      Percent of
                                                                             Number of       locations       locations
                         Species                           Total number      locations     burned two or   burned two or     Number of      Watersheds
                                                           of locations       burned       more times in   more times in    individuals
                                                                                             20 years        20 years
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SCI lotus...............................................             249              26              12            4.8%             855              10
SCI paintbrush..........................................             601             133              47             7.8            8596              29
SCI larkspur............................................              74               5               0               0             458               2
SCI bush-mallow.........................................             222              68              11             5.0            2076               4
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


[[Page 23903]]

    Given the historical patterns, most fires have burned outside 
locations where the four SCI plants species occur. Where plant 
locations have burned, most of those locations have burned infrequently 
over the last 20 years, during which period the four SCI plant species 
have increased in distribution and abundance. If fires become more 
frequent outside of the current fire footprint or more severe in the 
future, the species could be adversely affected in areas that burn. 
However, the Navy is expected to continue implementing its SCI Wildland 
Fire Management Plan (Navy 2009), and we expect that fires will 
continue to occur in similar areas and affect a limited number of 
individuals and locations of the four SCI plant species. That said, we 
are not concerned that fire is a threat to the listed plants, since 
they have expanded their ranges significantly with the removal of 
nonnative herbivores.
    SC Bell's sparrow--Fire can result in habitat loss and the direct 
mortality of adult SC Bell's sparrows and nestlings (Navy 2018, p. 20). 
While any fire severity can destroy nests and nestlings, low-severity 
fires are unlikely to eliminate habitat altogether, as shrubs used as 
nesting and foraging habitat are typically not impacted or are able to 
recover or resprout. Most fires on SCI have been classified as low 
severity, which may singe or stress shrubs but not kill or destroy them 
(USFWS 2020a, pp. 51-57). A burned area, unless experiencing a 
particularly severe fire, would still provide nesting substrate once 
the shrubs have recovered. Any fire can have a short-term negative 
impact on SC Bell's sparrows locally. Frequent, widespread, or high-
severity fires could have a longer term negative impact depending on 
where and how they burn. A fire return-interval of 3 years or less has 
been shown to negatively impact woody shrubs on SCI (Keeley and Brennan 
2015, p. 3). For instance, a fire that burns a substantial portion of 
the boxthorn habitat or sage brush habitat, areas with the highest 
densities of SC Bell's sparrow, could impact a substantial portion of 
the SC Bell's sparrow population. The northern boxthorn strata supports 
almost 35 percent of the population (USFWS 2020a, p. 38).
    Based on current knowledge of habitat use, with the expansion of SC 
Bell's sparrows into a broader range of habitats, more of the 
subspecies' distribution is within areas we expect could be impacted by 
fire. However, the current fire patterns and severity indicate most 
fires typically start in the Impact Areas in SHOBA, away from the 
highest density areas for SC Bell's sparrow. Fires are generally of low 
severity and burn limited areas due to the application of firebreaks 
and fire suppression. To date, no fires have broken out and burned the 
high-density boxthorn habitat (USFWS 2020a, p. 57). The Navy is 
expected to continue implementing its SCI Wildland Fire Management Plan 
(Navy 2009), and we expect that fires will continue to occur in similar 
areas and at similar frequency and intensity to that observed between 
2010 and 2020, and affect a limited number of individuals and locations 
of SC Bell's sparrow.
Climate Change
    Since listing (42 FR 40682; August 11, 1977), the potential impacts 
of ongoing, accelerated climate change have become a recognized threat 
to the flora and fauna of the United States (Intergovernmental Panel on 
Climate Change (IPCC) 2007, pp. 1-52; Point Reyes Bird Observatory 
(PRBO) Conservation Science 2011, pp. 1-68). Climate change is likely 
to result in warmer and drier conditions with high overall declines in 
mean seasonal precipitation but with high variability from year to year 
(IPCC 2007, pp. 1-18; Cayan et al. 2012, p. ii; Kalansky et al. 2018, 
p. 10). SCI is located in a Mediterranean climatic regime with a 
significant maritime influence. Current models suggest that southern 
California will likely be adversely affected by global climate change 
through prolonged seasonal droughts and through rainfall coming at 
unusual periods and in different amounts (Pierce 2004, p. 1-33, Cayan 
et al. 2005, p. 3-7, Campo Environmental Protection Agency (CEPA) 2006, 
p. 33; Jennings et al. 2018, p. iii; Kalansky et al. 2018, p. 10); 
however, the Channel Islands are not well addressed in these models.
    Climate change models indicate an increase in average temperature 
by 2 to 3 degrees Celsius ([deg]C) (4 to 6 degrees Fahrenheit ([deg]F)) 
(Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5) to 4 to 5 [deg]C (7 to 
9 [deg]F) (RCP 8.5) for the San Diego Area of southern California by 
the end of the century (Jennings et al. 2018, p. 9), with inland 
changes higher than the coast (Cayan et al. 2012, p. 7). By 2070, a 10 
to 37 percent decrease in annual precipitation is predicted (PRBO 2011, 
p. 40; Jennings et al. 2018, p. iii), although other models predict 
little to no change in annual precipitation (Field et al. 1999, pp. 8-
9; Cayan et al. 2008, p. S26). SCI typically receives less rainfall 
than neighboring mainland areas (Tierra Data Inc. 2005, p. 4). However, 
predictions of short-term and long-term climatic conditions for the 
Channel Islands remain uncertain, and it is unknown at this time if the 
same climate predictions for coastal California (a warmer trend with 
localized drying, higher precipitation events, and/or more frequent El 
Ni[ntilde]o or La Ni[ntilde]a events) equally apply to the Channel 
Islands (Pierce 2004, p. 31).
    Low-level temperature inversions are common along the California 
coast and Channel Islands, and these inversions form low cloud cover 
(fog), otherwise known as the marine layer, which has a strong 
influence on coastal ecosystems and SCI (Navy 2013a, pp. 3.13, 3.26). 
Although the island has a short rainy season, the presence of fog 
during the summer months helps to reduce drought stress for many plant 
species through shading and fog drip, and many species are restricted 
to this fog belt (Halvorson et al. 1988, p. 111; Fischer et al. 2009, 
p. 783). Thus, fog could help buffer species from effects of climatic 
change. However, coastal fog has been decreasing in southern California 
in recent decades, possibly due to urbanization (which would not affect 
SCI) or climate change (Williams et al. 2015, p. 1527; Johnstone and 
Dawson 2010, p. 4537; LaDochy and Witiw 2012, p. 1157). Coastal cloud 
cover and fog are poorly addressed in climate change models (Qu et al. 
2014, pp. 2603-2605).
    Warming projections in California, particularly the possibility 
that the interior will experience greater warming than the coast (Cayan 
et al. 2012, p. 7), suggest that the fate of coastal fog is uncertain 
(Field et al. 1999, pp. 21-22; Lebassi-Habtezion et al. 2011, pp. 8-
11). One study found an increasing trend in the strength of low-level 
temperature inversions, which suggests that the marine layer is likely 
to persist and may even increase (Iacobellis et al. 2010, p. 129). 
Recent work examining projected changes in solar radiation and cloud 
albedo (portion of solar radiation reflected back to space by clouds) 
show projected increases in cloud albedo during the dry season (July-
September) and decreases during the wet season (November and December, 
and March and April) (Clemesha 2020, entire). Such a scenario could 
moderate the effects of climate change on the Channel Islands and would 
be expected to reduce its potential threat to island plants, especially 
on the western shore's lower terraces, where the marine layer is 
common. Dry season low clouds and fog are particularly important to 
plant growth, survival, and population dynamics in arid systems through 
both a reduction in evapotranspiration demand and potentially water 
deposition (Corbin et al. 2005, p. 511; Johnstone and Dawson 2010, p. 
4533; Oladi et al. 2017, p. 94).

[[Page 23904]]

    Current trends based on meteorological information suggest climate 
change is already affecting southern California through sea level rise, 
warming, and extreme events like large storms associated with El 
Ni[ntilde]o events (Sievanen et al. 2018, p. 7). Climate projections, 
suggest more severe droughts or extended dry periods on coastal 
California via lessened low stratus cloud regime and hydrologic effects 
of reduced fog delivery (Fischer et al. 2009, pp. 783-799; NOAA 2009; 
Sievanen et al. 2018, p. 7). While long-term effects of climate change 
are typically projected to have major effects in the latter half of 
this century (Cayan et al. 2012, p. 24; Clemesha 2020, entire; Kalansky 
et al. 2018, pp. 19-21), there is increasing uncertainty with longer 
timeframes. Although climate change is affecting coastal and inland 
habitat in the United States (Karl et al. 2009, pp. 13-152), the site-
specific effects of climate change on SCI are uncertain. We, therefore, 
focused on a 20- to 30-year window to evaluate changes in climate 
(precipitation and temperature) in the species status assessments for 
these four taxa. During this time period, we do not expect major 
effects of climate change. Models indicate an increase in average 
temperature by 1 to 2 degrees Celsius ([deg]C) (2 to 3 degrees 
Fahrenheit ([deg]F)) (RCP 4.5) to 2 to 3 [deg]C (3 to 4 [deg]F) (RCP 
8.5) by 2040 for the San Diego Area of southern California (Jennings et 
al. 2018, p. 15), with inland changes higher than the coast (Cayan et 
al. 2012, p. 7). However, in the 20- to 30-year window, climate change 
may result in more frequent or severe fires, heavy periods of rainfall 
that could lead to major erosion events, or periods of drought 
(Kalansky et al. 2018, p. 10). As discussed in the species status 
assessments, predicting impacts due to climate change are further 
complicated by uncertainty regarding the timing of increased or 
decreased rainfall; wetter conditions in the winter and early spring 
can lead to more growth early in the season, which can provide more 
fuel for fire later. However, wetter summers and falls can prevent the 
fuel from drying out enough to burn (Lawson 2019, pers. comm.). 
Therefore, making predictions about future fire patterns as affected by 
climate change is difficult.
    Less rainfall and warmer air temperatures could limit the range of 
plant species, and affect habitat and prey or forage for SC Bell's 
sparrow, although there is no direct research on the effects of climate 
change on any of the species. While SC Bell's sparrow's reproductive 
success is influenced by rainfall, and could be affected by longer term 
changes in climate, the relationship between reproductive output and 
rainfall and the impacts of droughts of varying duration and severity 
on the population are unclear, and the mechanisms driving these 
relationships are unknown (USFWS 2020a, pp. 58-63). Changes in 
temperature or rainfall patterns have the potential to affect biotic 
interactions, such as decoupling the timing of plant phenology versus 
insect activity. The likely persistence of the marine layer would be 
expected to help moderate the effects of climate change on the Channel 
Islands and would be expected to reduce its potential effects to island 
plants, including nesting and cover substrates for SC Bell's sparrows.
    While we recognize that climate change is an important issue with 
potential effects to listed species and their habitats, information is 
not available to make accurate predictions regarding its effects to the 
SCI species addressed in this proposed rule. However, given the 
timeframe presented in climate change studies, major impacts from 
climate change are unlikely to occur in the next 20 to 30 years, the 
period for which we are able to make reliable predictions based on the 
available climate change data.
Reduced Genetic Diversity
    Genetic analysis suggests that SCI bush-mallow has very low genetic 
variation at both the species and population levels (Helenurm 1997, p. 
50; Helenurm 1999, p. 39), and has been observed to have low seed 
production (Helenurm 1997, p. 50; Junak and Wilken 1998, p. 291; 
Helenurm 1999, p. 39). Low seed production, in combination with low 
genetic diversity, can contribute to observed low recruitment in 
populations (Huenneke 1991, pp. 37-40; Junak and Wilken 1998, p. 291; 
Helenurm 1999, pp. 39- 40). A reduction in occurrence size through 
years of grazing may have substantially lowered genetic variation 
(Helenurm 2005, p. 1221), which could decrease genetic fitness and 
compromise the species' ability to adjust to novel or fluctuating 
environments, survive disease or other pathogens, survive stochastic 
events, or maintain high levels of reproductive performance (Huenneke 
1991, p. 40). However, data on the genetic variation that existed 
historically are lacking.
    In recent years, the detected numbers of SCI bush-mallow have 
increased in abundance, although it is unknown how much of this growth 
can be attributed to clonal growth versus sexual reproduction and new 
genets. Successful seed collection in 2013 (SERG 2013, pp. 61-64) and 
the observation of cotyledons in the field provide anecdotal evidence 
that the species may be reproducing more often by sexual recombination. 
As the number of individuals (stems) increases, we would expect by 
probability alone more genetically distinct individuals over time 
because as the numbers of stems increase, the probability of cross-
pollination is increased (Rebman 2019, pers. comm.). However, we do not 
know whether and how often new genets are produced in the population.
    Patches of SCI bush-mallow on SCI contain many clones of 
individuals but also contain distinct genetic individuals, and there is 
at least some increase in distribution through seedling recruitment 
(Munson 2019, pers. comm.). However, it is still likely that many 
patches, especially the small or more isolated ones, are comprised of 
only closely related individuals that share alleles, impeding the 
likelihood of successful sexual reproduction (Helenurm 1999, pp. 39-
40). The apparent historical loss of genetic diversity resulting in 
current low genetic variation is a potential threat for which there is 
no immediate solution or amelioration. However, currently, low genetic 
diversity does not seem to preclude the ability of the species to 
sustain populations over time on the island; historical diversity is 
unknown, and it may have always been low for this species. This species 
has increased in numbers and distribution from that known at the time 
of listing (42 FR 40682; August 11, 1977) and has sustained populations 
through current levels of habitat disturbance, and we expect genetic 
variants within and among patches are increasing, however slowly.
Conservation Actions and Regulatory Mechanisms
    Pursuant to the Sikes Act (16 U.S.C. 670 et seq.), as amended, the 
Navy manages land and water resources on the island under the San 
Clemente Island INRMP (Navy 2013a). The goal of the INRMP is to 
maintain long-term ecosystem health and minimize impacts to natural 
resources consistent with the operational requirements of the Navy's 
training and testing mission (Navy 2013a, p. 1-9). Specifically, the 
INRMP identifies key components that: (1) Facilitate sustainable 
military readiness and foreclose no options for future requirements of 
the Pacific Fleet; (2) Protect, maintain, and restore priority native 
species to reach self-sustaining levels through improved conditions of 
terrestrial, coastal, and nearshore ecosystems; (3) Promote ecosystem

[[Page 23905]]

sustainability against testing and training impacts; (4) Maintain the 
full suite of native species, emphasizing endemic species.
    The SCI INRMP outlines appropriate management actions necessary to 
conserve and enhance land and water resources, including: Invasive 
species control island-wide including near listed and sensitive 
species; biosecurity protocols; public outreach to promote compliance; 
restoration of sites that support sensitive plants; habitat enhancement 
for sensitive and listed species. In addition, the Fire Management Plan 
(Navy 2009) outlines a strategy to reduce the impacts from fires, 
including fuel break installation to minimize fire spread; and fire 
suppression inside and outside of SHOBA to protect endangered, 
threatened, and other priority species (Navy 2013a, p. 3.45; 
Vanderplank et al. 2019, pp. 15, 18-19; Munson 2019, pers. comm.). The 
INRMP outlines management strategies for plant communities and 
sensitive species, including recommended avoidance and minimization 
measures that the Navy may consider during the Site Approval and 
Project Review Process (Navy 2013a, pp. 4-23, 4-28). The SCI INRMP also 
provides the mechanism for compliance with other federal laws and 
regulations such as the Federal Noxious Weed Act of Act of 1974 (7 
U.S.C. 2801), the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, 
and Liability Act (42 U.S.C. 9601), the Resources Conservation and 
Recovery Act (42 U.S.C. 6901), and Soil Conservation Act (16 U.S.C. 
3B). The INRMP and other conservation measures are expected to remain 
in effect and afford protection to these five species regardless of the 
listing status. Measures specific to species or threats that are the 
subject of this proposed rule are discussed below.
    Migratory birds--The INRMP outlines steps to ensure compliance with 
Executive Order (E.O.) 13186 (``Responsibilities of Federal Agencies to 
Protect Migratory Birds''; see 66 FR 3853, January 17, 2001) and the 
2014 memorandum of understanding (MOU) between the Department of 
Defense (DoD) and the Service to promote the conservation of migratory 
birds, which stipulates responsibilities for DoD. The MOU outlines a 
collaborative approach to promote the conservation of bird populations, 
and the INRMP is required to address migratory bird conservation 
regardless of status under the Act. As part of the program outlined 
under the INRMP, the Navy supports the SC Bell's sparrow population 
monitoring program. Population monitoring provides a robust population 
estimate and facilitates planning to avoid and minimize impacts of Navy 
training and infrastructure projects.
    Erosion--The Navy monitors and evaluates soil erosion on SCI and 
uses multi-year data to assess priorities for remediation (SERG 2006, 
entire; SERG 2015a, entire). The INRMP includes a management objective 
to ``Conserve soil resources, especially erodible soils near the heads 
of canyons, knickpoints of gullies, and areas threatening the 
uninterrupted continuation of the military mission or special status 
species, to provide drainage stability, native vegetation cover, and 
soil water holding capacity and protect site productivity, native plant 
cover, receiving waters, and access for the military mission'' (Navy 
2013a, p. 3-35). Efforts are made to restore areas where erosion 
occurs, through revegetation efforts and the installation of erosion 
control materials (SERG 2016, p. 2). The Navy incorporates erosion 
control measures into all site feasibility studies and project design 
to minimize the potential to exacerbate existing erosion and avoid 
impacts to listed species. The INRMP requires that all projects include 
erosion control work (Navy 2013a, p. 3-33). These conservation actions 
include best management practices, choosing sites that are capable of 
sustaining disturbance with minimum soil erosion, and stabilizing 
disturbed sites (Navy 2013a, pp. 3.33-3.37).
    Nonnative species--The Navy has monitored and controlled the 
expansion of highly invasive, nonnative plant species on an ongoing 
basis since the 1990s (O'Connor 2019, pers. comm.), and primary target 
species have included Brassica tournefortii (Saharan mustard), B. nigra 
(black mustard), Foeniculum vulgare (fennel), Asphodelus fistulosus 
(aspohodel), Stipa miliacea (smilo grass), Ehrharta calycina (African 
veldt grass), Plantago coronopus (buckhorn plantain), Tragopogon 
porrifolius (salsify), and Carpobrotus edulis (iceplant); additional 
priority species may also be controlled as they are located (e.g., SERG 
2016, pp. 45-46). In general, the Navy treats over 100,000 individuals 
of these various species annually. Control of these invasive plants 
benefits the ecosystem on SCI by reducing their distribution and 
minimizing the potential that they will invade habitat occupied by 
listed and at-risk taxa. Because invasive species introductions are 
more likely to occur along roadsides and because roads function as 
corridors for the spread of invasive species propagules, much of the 
invasive species treatment on the island focuses on roadsides; however, 
other areas highly susceptible to invasive species introductions (such 
as graded areas, soil stockpiles, and mowed areas) also are focal areas 
for control. High-priority invasive plants are treated at locations 
across the island. This control strategy has minimized the need to 
treat invasive plant species within areas occupied by federally listed 
plants.
    While many conservation measures to limit the introduction and 
spread of nonnative plants are included in the INRMP (Navy 2013a, pp. 
3.289-3.290), the recently completed Biosecurity Plan (Navy 2016, 
entire) will help more effectively control the arrival of potentially 
invasive propagules. The plan works to prevent and respond to new 
introductions of nonnative species and bio-invasion vectors. The Navy 
is currently working on an instruction that will contain feasible, 
enforceable measures from the plan. Through implementation of this plan 
and the ongoing island-wide nonnative plant control program, potential 
impacts from nonnative plants are expected to be minimized (O'Connor 
2019, pers. comm.; Munson 2019, pers. comm.)
    Nonnative predators--The current nonnative wildlife program focuses 
on island-wide nonnative predator management, which was initiated by 
the Navy in 1992 (USFWS 2008, p. 172). Complete eradication of feral 
cats, black rats, and house mice on SCI is currently infeasible. 
Nonnative wildlife management focuses on control of feral cats 
throughout the island and rodent control near San Clemente loggerhead 
shrike nest sites (Meiman et al. 2013, p. 2). This program affords some 
protection to the SC Bell's sparrow, primarily through cat removal. 
Rodent control is conducted using traps and bait stations around 
loggerhead shrike nest sites using Terad (active ingredient 
cholecalciferol). The Navy has removed numerous cats, on average 211 
annually (2001-2016; Burlingame et al. 2018, p. 29), and rodenticide 
was calculated to have impacted 26,473 rodents in 2000 (Navy 2002, pp. 
4-66). The results of cat and rat control efforts vary according to 
predator population cycles.
    Fire--The Navy implements the SCI Wildland Fire Management Plan 
(Navy 2009, entire), which is focused on fire prevention, fuels 
management, and fire suppression. Implementation of the fire management 
plan provides planning guidelines to reduce the potential for ignitions 
during the drier times of the year, ensures that adequate fire 
suppression resources are present to protect resources, and provides 
flexibility for the timing of military training and to ensure that 
adequate fire suppression resources are present with

[[Page 23906]]

an increased level of training activities (Navy 2009, entire). These 
measures minimize the frequency and spread of fires that could result 
in impacts to habitat and to individuals of the five species.
    SC Bell's sparrow--Current and ongoing conservation measures 
described above minimize impacts of threats to SC Bell's sparrow. 
Additionally, the SCI INRMP is currently being updated to include 
prioritization of conservation and management within four core SC 
Bell's sparrow habitat areas (approximately 2,604 ha; O'Connor 2019, 
pers. comm.). These areas were selected to assure representation (e.g., 
multiple plant communities) and redundancy (e.g., multiple areas). They 
include high-density SC Bell's sparrow habitat, assumed source 
populations, refugia spread geographically, and areas of elevation and 
topographic importance to SC Bell's sparrow. The intent of priority 
conservation areas is to facilitate future planning in a manner that 
avoids impacts to important SC Bell's sparrow habitat, and to protect 
the population against stochastic catastrophic events (USFWS 2020a, p. 
66).
    Final delineation of areas and management strategies will be 
identified within an SC Bell's sparrow management plan, which is 
currently being prepared in coordination with the Service (USFWS 2020a, 
p. 66). Although the management plan is not finalized, we anticipate 
completion by fall/winter 2020/2021. With the identification of core 
habitat areas in the INRMP, and management of these areas consistent 
with the management plan, we anticipate that the Navy will: (1) 
Preclude significant development within these areas, to the extent 
feasible; (2) prioritize these four areas for protection under fire 
management plans; and (3) prioritize these four areas for invasive 
species control, as needed (USFWS 2020a, p. 66) to help manage for the 
SC Bell's sparrow. While we expect that incorporation of SC Bell's 
sparrow core habitat areas into the INRMP will improve coordination of 
conservation measures for the SC Bell's sparrow, the Navy's current and 
ongoing management described above minimizes the impacts of threats to 
SC Bell's sparrow and its habitat under the existing training regime. 
Completion of a SC Bell's sparrow management plan will highlight 
important management areas to conserve and monitor to ensure the 
continued conservation of this taxon in the future.
    Summary of conservation actions and regulatory mechanisms--The 
Sikes Act requires DoD installations to prepare and implement INRMPs 
that provide for the conservation and rehabilitation of natural 
resources, including non-listed species. Consequently, due to this 
requirement, the conservation actions outlined in the INRMP are 
expected to continue into the future, regardless of the listing status 
of the five species. While changes to military training are possible, 
it is expected that the training footprint would be similar to the 
baseline training footprint, and that conservation measures would 
continue to be implemented to meet the goals of the INRMP. 
Additionally, changes to training have and will be subject to 
environmental review under applicable laws and regulations, including 
the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) and the Navy's Site 
Approval and Review Process, which includes identifying avoidance and 
minimization measures for plant communities and sensitive species, 
including measures recommended in the SCI INRMP (Navy 2013a, pp. 4-23, 
4-28). If these five species are delisted, they would continue to be 
considered sensitive species and any impacts would be evaluated through 
these processes (O'Connor 2019, pers. comm.).

Summary of Factors Influencing Viability

    At the time of listing (42 FR 40682; August 11, 1977), the biggest 
threat to the SCI species was habitat destruction and modification due 
to feral grazers. Since the removal of the last feral herbivores, 
vegetation is recovering, and habitat conditions have improved 
substantially. Currently, all five species are now more widely 
distributed on the island with greater estimated numbers of individuals 
than were previously known.
Plants
    For the plant species, we assessed threats to individuals and 
habitat including land use, erosion, the spread of nonnatives, fire and 
fire management, and climate change. While full impacts of invasive 
species on the four plant species are unknown, the effects are likely 
minimal or localized, given the expansion of the species on the island 
despite the presence of invasive species. Climate change may influence 
the plant species by affecting germination or viability of adult plants 
if drought or increasing temperatures result in significant changes in 
vegetation communities on SCI. The magnitude of this rangewide threat 
and how it may affect the plant taxa is unknown at this time, but 
significant impacts from climate change are unlikely to occur in the 
next 20 to 30 years (USFWS 2020b, p. 57; USFWS 2020c, pp. 66-67; USFWS 
2020d, p. 51; USFWS 2020e, p. 53).
    For all four plant species, we considered major threats to be 
impacts of military training and fire. For SCI paintbrush, SCI lotus, 
and SCI larkspur, we also considered erosion as a result of training or 
proximity to roads to be a major threat; SCI bush-mallow does not occur 
in areas near roads or in training areas where potential erosion is a 
concern. We ranked the levels of these threats in each watershed to 
evaluate the extent to which the species are exposed to and potentially 
affected by these threats (USFWS 2020b, pp. 59-60; USFWS 2020c, pp. 69-
70; USFWS 2020d, pp. 54-55; USFWS 2020e, pp. 56-57). Level of threats 
were categorized as none, low, or moderate. A low level of threats is 
defined as threats that could potentially affect less than 50 percent 
of the locations, individuals, or area within the watershed. A moderate 
level of threat is defined as threats that could potentially affect 50 
percent or more of the locations, individuals, or area within the 
watershed. Table 6, below, indicates the percentages and numbers of 
watersheds, and the estimated individuals in those watersheds that were 
categorized as having no identified or low threats, or moderate 
threats. The majority of watersheds where plant taxa occur are in areas 
with no or low exposure to threats affecting less than half of the 
locations, individuals, or area occupied.

[[Page 23907]]



    Table 6--Numbers and Percentages of Watersheds and Individuals Assessed To Have Varying Levels of Threats
        [USFWS 2020b, pp. 59-60; USFWS 2020c, pp. 69-70; USFWS 2020d, pp. 54-55; USFWS 2020e, pp. 56-57]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                                     Moderate
                                                  No or low    No or low threats     Moderate        threats %
                   Species                        threats %    % individuals (n)     threats %      individuals
                                               watersheds (n)                     watersheds (n)        (n)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SCI lotus....................................         78 (45)        90 (18,640)         22 (13)      10 (2,013)
SCI paintbrush...............................         75 (65)        85 (35,702)         25 (22)      15 (6,402)
SCI larkspur.................................        100 (22)       100 (18,956)           0 (0)           0 (0)
SCI bush-mallow..............................         73 (11)         60 (3,345)          27 (4)      40 (2,266)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SC Bell's Sparrow
    We assessed remaining threats to SC Bell's sparrow individuals and 
habitat, including predation, drought, climate change, military 
training, and fire. Ongoing predator control programs are implemented 
to control nonnative predator species on the island, and the population 
of SC Bell's sparrow has grown despite ongoing impacts. Drought could 
potentially affect SC Bell's sparrow, as reduced nesting success has 
been reported in drier years, especially if droughts become more 
frequent or severe. While the effects of drought on productivity of the 
island-wide population are not fully understood, and additional data 
are needed to clarify this relationship, the population has rebounded 
quickly from past droughts and is expected to retain its ability to do 
so in the future. Likewise, climate change may influence or affect 
vegetation and thus nesting and foraging habitat (USFWS 2020a, p. 63). 
The magnitude of this rangewide threat and how it may affect the SC 
Bell's sparrow is unknown at this time, but significant impacts from 
climate change are unlikely to occur in the next 20 to 30 years (USFWS 
2020a, pp. 63-64).
    Future military training impacts are expected to occur in the 
existing training footprint, and have the potential to impact a small 
percentage of the SC Bell's sparrow population, based on the estimated 
number of SC Bell's sparrows that inhabit the training footprint. 
Training within the current footprint that could have high-intensity 
impacts occurs on less than 20 percent of the island, and those areas 
that are intensively used are currently either unoccupied or already 
support low densities of SC Bell's sparrows. The largest potential 
known threat to the SC Bell's sparrow is fire. The Navy actively 
implements fire prevention and containment measures as part of the fire 
management plan. Thus, although fire currently impacts SC Bell's 
sparrows and their habitat, current fire patterns do not appear to pose 
a threat to SC Bell's sparrow population viability.

Species Condition

    Here, we discuss the current condition of each species, taking into 
account the risks to those populations that are currently occurring, as 
well as management actions that are currently occurring to address 
those risks.
Plants
    In our evaluation of current conditions, for each plant species and 
watershed, we developed and assigned condition categories. To assess 
the resiliency of plant species, we assessed the overall condition of 
the population by evaluating occupancy, locations, and individuals 
within each watershed. We categorized our assessed resiliency scores by 
watershed based on number of individuals: ``very high'' means 
populations with 500 or more individuals; ``high'' means populations 
with 100-499 individuals; ``moderate'' means populations with 10-99 
individuals; and ``low'' means populations with fewer than 10 
individuals. We also examined population trends, which indicate the 
ability of the species to withstand and recover from stochastic events.
    Resiliency was considered higher within watersheds supporting a 
greater number of individuals over time; however, if all of the 
individuals within a watershed were in just one location, we assumed 
that they are less resilient than a watershed with the same number of 
individuals that are spread out across multiple locations, as plants 
will be more likely to sustain populations through stochastic events if 
one localized event is unable to affect all the plants in the entire 
watershed.
    Because few comprehensive surveys have been conducted for plant 
species on SCI, data from 2011 and 2012, which represent the most 
recent comprehensive surveys, were supplemented with prior and 
subsequent data, following a rule set to exclude and buffer data that 
might result in double counting, and to exclude occurrence data more 
than 15 years old. Because of lack of pre- and post-fire surveys, 
numbers of individuals of SCI lotus and SCI paintbrush (the two species 
most likely to be negatively affected by severe fires) in watersheds 
that burned were adjusted to assume some mortality from two severe 
fires in the last 15 years (USFWS 2020d, pp. 56-57; USFWS 2020e, pp. 
58-60). Adjusted numbers of locations and individuals were then used to 
categorize resiliency in each watershed as low, moderate, high, or very 
high (see Table 7, below).

                         Table 7--Number of Watersheds With High or Very High Resilience
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                          Percent of individuals
                                                                  Number of watersheds        that occur in
                            Species                              with ``very high'' and   watersheds rated with
                                                                  ``high'' resilience       ``very high'' and
                                                                 (occupied watersheds)     ``high'' resilience
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SCI paintbrush................................................                  48 (87)                       96
SCI lotus.....................................................                  22 (58)                       92
SCI larkspur..................................................                  14 (22)                       93
SCI bush-mallow...............................................                   9 (15)                       96
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


[[Page 23908]]

    The majority of individuals of each of the plant species occur in 
watersheds with high or very high resilience, which suggests that the 
majority of watersheds are likely to be able to withstand stochastic 
events. While all four plant species are considered to consist of one 
population, their distributions across multiple watersheds with a 
variety of habitat types, elevations, and slopes also make it unlikely 
that the entire population of any of the species would be affected by a 
catastrophic event. Genetic variation in SCI bush-mallow is considered 
to be low for an island endemic, which, coupled with its clonal nature, 
could potentially make the species less able to adapt to changing 
environmental conditions. However, low genetic diversity does not seem 
to be precluding the species from sustaining itself on the island.
SC Bell's Sparrow
    The current population (2018) is estimated at 2,676 territories 
(5,284 individuals) island-wide. Overall, the population of SC Bell's 
sparrows on SCI has increased since listing and, for at least the past 
5 years, has withstood current stochastic effects. Given these trends 
and the relatively large population size, we consider this population 
to currently be highly resilient to stochastic factors. While we 
consider SC Bell's sparrow to consist of a single population, its 
distribution across the island and ability to use a range of elevations 
and habitats indicate the species' adaptability and that it is unlikely 
that the entire population of the species would be affected by a single 
catastrophic event.

Future Conditions

    To assess current threats and future conditions, we evaluated the 
proportion of each population exposed to anthropogenic stressors under 
baseline conditions, and considered different future scenarios for 
impacts of military training and fire: status quo (baseline impacts), 
and moderate or high increases in fire severity and training within the 
existing frequent fire and training footprint. We also considered these 
scenarios assuming moderate and low recruitment for the plant species, 
and high and low densities for SC Bell's sparrow. While specific 
effects of climate change are uncertain and were not modeled, increases 
in fire severity, which could result from either increased training or 
from effects of climate change, and low recruitment/density serve as 
proxies for potential effects. We used a 20- to 30-year timeframe for 
modeling future conditions because beyond this timeframe, the impacts 
of climate change on SCI, specifically the persistence of the fog belt 
and the timing and patterns of fog and rainfall, are uncertain, making 
predictions unreliable.
Plants
    As recovery of plant communities on SCI continues, the number of 
individuals within watersheds and number of occupied watersheds are 
expected to continue to increase. While existing data indicate that 
numbers and distribution of the plant species are greater than in the 
past, the rates at which groups of plants expand over time are unknown. 
Therefore, we modeled recruitment at moderate and low levels for SCI 
paintbrush and SCI lotus. Because SCI bush-mallow currently appears to 
be reproducing primarily clonally rather than through sexual 
reproduction and exhibits low seed production, we modeled low and no 
recruitment to account for this condition. Because of SCI larkspur's 
long dormancy periods, we do not know how many individuals are present 
at any point in time and did not include recruitment in the modeling to 
avoid overestimating growth (i.e., apparent changes in abundance or 
distribution could be accounted for by individuals breaking dormancy 
rather than through recruitment of new individuals). As noted above 
under Species Condition, for purposes of modeling current and future 
conditions, the current baseline numbers of individuals of SCI lotus 
and SCI paintbrush (the two species most likely to be negatively 
affected by severe fires) were adjusted to assume some mortality from 
two severe fires in the last 15 years (USFWS 2020d, pp. 56-57; USFWS 
2020e, pp. 58-60), so numbers presented here differ slightly from 
estimated current distribution and abundance.
    To model fire severity, which could result from increased training 
or effects of climate change, we used the frequent fire footprint 
(burned 2 or more times) from the past 20 years to project where future 
fires are likely to occur. To model increases in fire severity, we 
assumed greater numbers of individuals would be affected by fire and 
removed from the population. Because SCI larkspur does not appear to be 
significantly affected by fire, likely due to its dormant period 
coinciding with periods when fires are more likely, we only included 
increased training in our modeling of future conditions for that plant.
    To model effects of land use and training, we used the current 
footprint of training areas. Using the percent of individuals that 
occur either within a training area or near a road, we calculated the 
total number of individuals that could be affected by increased 
training in that watershed. We assumed an increasing number of 
locations and individuals would be affected by increased training 
intensity. The results are presented below in Table 8.

   Table 8--Number of Watersheds With High and Very High Resilience, Total Occupied Watersheds, and Number of
                                 Individuals Under Current and Future Scenarios
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                   Total number
                                                                     Number of      of occupied     Individuals
                                                                    watersheds      watersheds        (ranges
                                                                   with high or    (with low and   represent low
                                                                     very high       moderate      and moderate
                                                                    resilience     recruitment)    recruitment)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SCI paintbrush:
  Current.......................................................              48              87          42,104
  Status quo....................................................              48      87 (92-97)   43,489-51,773
  Increased fire/training.......................................              42      84 (89-94)   40,435-48,137
  Extreme fire/training.........................................              41      80 (85-90)   38,078-45,330
SCI lotus:
  Current.......................................................              22              57          20,743
  Status quo....................................................              23      57 (62-67)   21,595-25,708
  Increased fire/training.......................................              21      57 (62-67)   20,627-24,556
  Extreme fire/training.........................................              19      57 (62-67)   19,706-23,460

[[Page 23909]]

 
SCI larkspur:
  Current.......................................................              14              22          18,956
  Status quo....................................................              14              22          18,956
  Increased fire/training.......................................              13              22          18,749
  Extreme fire/training.........................................              13              20          18,542
SCI bush-mallow:
  Current.......................................................               9              15           5,611
  Status quo....................................................               9              15     5,611-5,892
  Increased fire/training.......................................               9              15     5,200-5,461
  Extreme fire/training.........................................               9              15     4,131-4,337
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SC Bell's Sparrow
    We modeled the future condition of SC Bell's sparrow over a 20- to 
30-year time frame given two different scenarios of future impacts from 
military training and fire, the two most significant current and future 
threats. Using both a low and high density estimate (calculated by 
manipulating the lowest and highest density estimates for each habitat 
stratum measured between 2013 and 2018 by one standard error), we 
calculated the estimated number of territories for each stratum under 
two potential future scenarios: (1) A ``status quo'' scenario in which 
conditions remain similar to those observed between 2013 and 2018 
(i.e., no changes in training intensity, or fire pattern or frequency), 
and (2) an ``increased impacts'' scenario in which increased impacts 
from training and fire reduce the suitability of habitat within 
existing training areas and frequent fire footprints to some extent. 
For the second scenario, we report the number of SC Bell's sparrows 
that would be supported outside these areas where there may be 
increased impacts to the subspecies' habitat. This provided an estimate 
of the minimum number of territories that could be supported outside of 
projected fires and training area impacts within each stratum. We 
summed the territories in each stratum for an island-wide estimate, 
giving a range from low to high densities (see Table 9, below).

   Table 9--Number of Territories and Number of Adults of SC Bell's Sparrow Under Current and Future Scenarios
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                     ``Status
                                                                                     Quo'': No       Increased
                                                                                      further         impacts
                        SC Bell's sparrow                             Current         impacts        (minimum
                                                                                     (current        habitat)
                                                                                     habitat)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Territories.....................................................     1,494-3,859     1,449-4,650     1,113-3,413
Number of adults................................................     2,988-7,718     2,899-9,300     2,225-6,826
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Limitations and Uncertainties
    Our models project numbers of watersheds and individuals for plants 
and numbers of territories and adults for SC Bell's sparrow under a 
range of possible future conditions. However, there are several 
limitations and uncertainties associated with our projections (USFWS 
2020a, pp. 77-78; USFWS 2020b, pp. 68-69; USFWS 2020c, pp. 77-78; USFWS 
2020d, pp. 69-70; USFWS 2020e, pp. 72-73). These include differences in 
survey methodologies over time and lack of information regarding 
demographic and life-history characteristics of the species, which 
required us to make several assumptions in our estimates and 
projections. We presumed that where surveys were not conducted since 
2004, individuals from the four plant taxa continued to be present and 
that the four plant taxa are extant at those locations last reported in 
2004. We also generally assumed that military training and fire would 
affect the same areas they have historically, and we made several 
assumptions about extent of future impacts within the same geographic 
footprint. We also concluded that the Navy will continue to manage and 
protect habitat where these five taxa occur on SCI. While there are a 
number of uncertainties and assumptions, our projections represent the 
best available scientific and commercial information and are useful 
predictions of the current and future viability of the species.
Summary of Future Conditions
    While all five species might experience reductions in numbers of 
individuals or occupied watersheds or habitat within the existing fire 
and training footprint under the most extreme scenarios considered, all 
species are expected to remain resilient. Each species would continue 
to occupy a broad distribution on the island across a variety of 
habitats under status quo and increased threat scenarios, so 
representation and redundancy are not expected to decrease 
significantly.
    We note that, by using the SSA framework to guide our analyses of 
the scientific information documented in the SSA reports, we have not 
only analyzed individual effects on the species, but we have also 
analyzed their potential cumulative effects. We incorporated the 
cumulative effects into our SSA analyses when we characterized the 
current and future condition of the species. To assess the current and 
future conditions of the

[[Page 23910]]

species, we undertook an iterative analysis that encompassed and 
incorporated the threats individually and then accumulated and 
evaluated the effects of all the factors that may be influencing the 
species, including threats and conservation efforts. Because the SSA 
framework considers not just the presence of the factors, but to what 
degree they collectively influence risk to the entire species, our SSA 
assessment integrated the cumulative effects of the factors and 
replaces a standalone cumulative effects analysis. We lack specific 
information on how various threats may interact, but potential 
cumulative effects include interactions of military training, fire, 
invasive species, and climate change. For example, effects of climate 
change could increase the frequency or severity of fire. Although we 
lack specific information on effects of climate change, we assumed in 
our modeling of future conditions that increased fire could result from 
either increased training or from climate change, or a combination. We 
also modeled a range of increased impacts of training and/or fire, as 
well as low and moderate recruitment or densities, and used 
conservative approaches to estimate resulting populations to account 
for the possibility of cumulative effects. We found in our evaluation 
of current and future conditions that all five species are likely to 
continue to maintain close to current levels of resiliency, redundancy, 
and representation, despite the potential for cumulative effects.

Determinations of Species Status

    Section 4 of the Act (16 U.S.C. 1533) and its implementing 
regulations (50 CFR part 424) set forth the procedures for determining 
whether a species meets the definition of an ``endangered species'' or 
a ``threatened species.'' The Act defines an endangered species as a 
species that is ``in danger of extinction throughout all or a 
significant portion of its range,'' and a threatened species as a 
species that is ``likely to become an endangered species within the 
foreseeable future throughout all or a significant portion of its 
range.'' The Act requires that we determine whether a species meets the 
definition of an ``endangered species'' or a ``threatened species'' 
because of any of the following factors: (A) The present or threatened 
destruction, modification, or curtailment of its habitat or range; (B) 
overutilization for commercial, recreational, scientific, or 
educational purposes; (C) disease or predation; (D) the inadequacy of 
existing regulatory mechanisms; or (E) other natural or manmade factors 
affecting its continued existence.

Status Throughout All of Its Range

    After evaluating threats to the species and assessing the 
cumulative effect of the threats under the section 4(a)(1) factors, we 
found that the primary threats to SC Bell's sparrow, SCI paintbrush, 
SCI lotus, SCI larkspur, and SCI bush-mallow identified at the time of 
and since listing have been eliminated or reduced. At the time of 
listing (42 FR 40682; August 11, 1977), habitat destruction and 
modification caused by nonnative herbivores (Factor A) was considered 
to be the primary cause of decline for all five species. Since removal 
of all nonnative herbivores was completed in 1992, plant communities on 
the island are recovering, and habitat conditions are improving for all 
species. The current sizes and distributions of each of the species are 
greater than were previously known. Currently and in the future, 
individuals and habitat of each of the five species may be affected by 
military training activities (Factors A and E), erosion (Factor A), 
invasive species (Factors A and E), and fire and fire management 
(Factors A and E). These remaining threats to the species, including 
fire, erosion, and invasive species, are managed by the Navy through 
implementation of the SCI INRMP, Fire Management Plan, Erosion Control 
Plan for SCI, and other associated management plans. Implementation of 
avoidance and minimization measures and programs outlined in these 
plans is expected to continue regardless of the listing status of the 
five species. In addition, the Navy will continue to consider these 
five species and incorporate avoidance and minimization measures for 
land use activities, including infrastructure projects and military 
training proposals as part of the Site Approval and Project Review 
process. Thus, existing conservation programs and regulatory 
mechanisms, such as the INRMP, are expected to continue to provide 
protections to these species, regardless of listing status. Because the 
Channel Islands are not well addressed in current climate models and 
there is uncertainty regarding how climate change may affect habitats 
and species on SCI, we were not able to assess its long-term effects, 
but because of moderating effects of maritime influence on SCI, we do 
not expect major impacts over the next 20 to 30 years. Our evaluation 
of current and future conditions indicates all five species are likely 
to continue to maintain close to current levels of resiliency, 
redundancy, and representation.
    In addition to threats in common to all five SCI species, small 
population size (Factor E) was formerly considered a threat to SC 
Bell's sparrow, with a low of 38 individuals reported in 1984. However, 
the species is now more widely distributed on the island, and 
population estimates have been consistently over 4,000 adults since 
2013. Predation by black rats and feral cats (Factor C) was also 
considered a threat to SC Bell's sparrow at the time of listing. While 
predation on SC Bell's sparrow still occurs, the Navy implements 
predator control on SCI, and predation on SC Bell's sparrow does not 
appear to be limiting the population. The species is currently 
considered to be resilient and is expected to maintain close to current 
levels of resiliency, redundancy, and representation under a range of 
projected future conditions. Thus, after assessing the best available 
information, we determine that San Clemente Bell's sparrow is not in 
danger of extinction now or likely to become so in the foreseeable 
future throughout all of its range.
    No additional threats beyond those common to all five SCI species 
have been identified for SCI paintbrush. With removal of nonnative 
herbivores, and conservation efforts implemented by the Navy, numbers 
and distribution of SCI paintbrush have increased. The SCI paintbrush 
population numbered approximately 1,000 individuals in 1984. The 
current island-wide population is estimated at 42,104 individuals 
across 87 watersheds. The majority of these individuals currently occur 
in watersheds with high or very high resiliency. Additionally, the 
species is expected to maintain close to current levels of resiliency, 
redundancy, and representation under a range of projected future 
conditions. Thus, after assessing the best available information, we 
determine that San Clemente Island paintbrush is not in danger of 
extinction now or likely to become so in the foreseeable future 
throughout all of its range.
    No additional threats beyond those common to all five SCI species 
have been identified for SCI lotus. With removal of nonnative 
herbivores, and conservation efforts implemented by the Navy, numbers 
and distribution of SCI lotus have increased. While the historical 
range and distribution of SCI lotus is not known, its distribution has 
increased from the 6 locations noted in 1984 (USFWS 1984, pp. 17, 35). 
The current island-wide population is estimated at 21,251 individuals 
across 58 watersheds. The majority of these

[[Page 23911]]

individuals currently occur in watersheds with high or very high 
resiliency. Additionally, the species is expected to maintain close to 
current levels of resiliency, redundancy, and representation under a 
range of projected future conditions. Thus, after assessing the best 
available information, we determine that San Clemente Island lotus is 
not in danger of extinction now or likely to become so in the 
foreseeable future throughout all of its range.
    No additional threats beyond those common to all five SCI species 
have been identified for SCI larkspur. While the historical range and 
distribution of SCI larkspur is not known, its distribution has 
increased from the 6 to 7 locations noted in 1984 (USFWS 1984, pp. 17, 
35). The current island-wide population is estimated at 18,956 
individuals within 22 watersheds. The majority of these individuals 
currently occur in watersheds with high or very high resiliency. 
Additionally, the species is expected to maintain close to current 
levels of resiliency, redundancy, and representation under a range of 
projected future conditions. Fire (Factors A and E) is thought to 
currently not significantly affect SCI larkspur, but changes in timing, 
frequency, or severity of fire could potentially negatively affect the 
species. However, the Navy's implementation of fire management is 
expected to continue to minimize the risk of fire to SCI larkspur. 
Thus, after assessing the best available information, we determine that 
San Clemente Island larkspur is not in danger of extinction now or 
likely to become so in the foreseeable future throughout all of its 
range.
    In addition to threats common to all five SCI species, reduced 
genetic diversity (Factor E) has been identified as a potential threat 
for SCI bush-mallow. However, currently, low genetic diversity does not 
seem to be precluding the species' ability to sustain itself on the 
island. With removal of nonnative herbivores, and conservation efforts 
implemented by the Navy, numbers and distribution of SCI bush-mallow 
have increased. At the time of listing, SCI bush-mallow was only known 
from three locations (42 FR 40682; August 11, 1977). The current 
island-wide population is estimated at 5,611 individuals across 15 
watersheds. The majority of these individuals currently occur in 
watersheds with high or very high resiliency. Additionally, the species 
is expected to maintain close to current levels of resiliency, 
redundancy, and representation under a range of projected future 
conditions. Thus, after assessing the best available information, we 
determine that San Clemente Island bush-mallow is not in danger of 
extinction now or likely to become so in the foreseeable future 
throughout all of its range.

Status Throughout a Significant Portion of Its Range

    Under the Act and our implementing regulations, a species may 
warrant listing if it is in danger of extinction or likely to become so 
in the foreseeable future throughout all or a significant portion of 
its range. Having determined that the SC Bell's sparrow, SCI 
paintbrush, SCI lotus, SCI larkspur, and SCI bush-mallow are not in 
danger of extinction or likely to become so in the foreseeable future 
throughout all of their ranges, we now consider whether any of these 
species may be in danger of extinction or likely to become so in the 
foreseeable future in a significant portion of its range--that is, 
whether there is any portion of the species' range for which it is true 
that both (1) the portion is significant, and (2) the species is in 
danger of extinction now or likely to become so in the foreseeable 
future in that portion. Depending on the case, it might be more 
efficient for us to address the ``significance'' question or the 
``status'' question first. We can choose to address either question 
first. Regardless of which question we address first, if we reach a 
negative answer with respect to the first question that we address, we 
do not need to evaluate the other question for that portion of the 
species' range.
    In undertaking this analysis for SC Bell's sparrow, SCI paintbrush, 
SCI lotus, SCI larkspur, and SCI bush-mallow, we choose to address the 
status question first--we consider information pertaining to the 
geographic distribution of both the species and the threats that the 
species faces to identify any portions of the range where the species 
is endangered or threatened.
    The SC Bell's sparrow, SCI paintbrush, SCI lotus, SCI larkspur, and 
SCI bush-mallow are found solely on San Clemente Island, an area of 
approximately 56 square mi (145 square km, 36,073 acres (ac), or 14,598 
hectares (ha)). Each of these species is a narrow endemic that 
functions as a single, contiguous population. While we divided each of 
the species' ranges into analysis units in order to quantify threats 
and analyze resiliency, these units are not meant to represent 
``populations'' in a biological sense; rather, these units were 
designed to facilitate assessing and reporting current and future 
resilience. Given the species' small ranges, and the Navy's management 
to eliminate or reduce threats through implementation of the SCI INRMP 
and other associated management plans, there is no biologically 
meaningful way to break the limited ranges of these species into 
portions, and the threats that the species face affect the species 
throughout their entire ranges. This means that no portions of the 
species' ranges have a different status from their rangewide status. 
Therefore, no portion of the species' ranges can provide a basis for 
determining that the species are in danger of extinction now or likely 
to become so in the foreseeable future in a significant portion of 
their ranges, and we find that San Clemente Bell's sparrow, San 
Clemente Island paintbrush, San Clemente Island lotus, San Clemente 
Island larkspur, and San Clemente Island bush-mallow are not in danger 
of extinction now or likely to become so in the foreseeable future in 
any significant portion of their ranges. This is consistent with the 
courts' holdings in Desert Survivors v. Department of the Interior, No. 
16-cv-01165-JCS, 2018 WL 4053447 (N.D. Cal. Aug. 24, 2018), and Center 
for Biological Diversity v. Jewell, 248 F. Supp. 3d, 946, 959 (D. Ariz. 
2017).

Determination of Status

    Our review of the best available scientific and commercial 
information indicates that the San Clemente Bell's sparrow, San 
Clemente Island paintbrush, San Clemente Island lotus, San Clemente 
Island larkspur, and San Clemente Island bush-mallow do not meet the 
definition of an endangered species or a threatened species in 
accordance with sections 3(6), 3(20), and 4(a)(1) of the Act. 
Therefore, we propose to delist (remove) the San Clemente Bell's 
sparrow, San Clemente Island paintbrush, San Clemente Island lotus, San 
Clemente Island larkspur, and San Clemente Island bush-mallow from the 
Lists of Endangered and Threatened Wildlife and Plants.

Effects of This Proposed Rule

    This proposal, if made final, would revise 50 CFR 17.11(h) to 
remove San Clemente Bell's sparrow (Artemisiospiza belli clementeae), 
which is listed as San Clemente sage sparrow (Amphispiza belli 
clementeae), from the Federal List of Endangered and Threatened 
Wildlife, and would revise 50 CFR 17.12(h) to remove San Clemente 
Island bush-mallow (Malacothamnus clementinus), San Clemente Island 
paintbrush (Castilleja grisea), San Clemente Island lotus, (Acmispon 
dendroideus var. traskiae), and San Clemente Island larkspur 
(Delphinium variegatum ssp. kinkiense) from the Federal List of 
Endangered and Threatened Plants. The prohibitions and

[[Page 23912]]

conservation measures provided by the Act, particularly through 
sections 7 and 9, would no longer apply to these species. Federal 
agencies would no longer be required to consult with the Service under 
section 7 of the Act in the event that activities they authorize, fund, 
or carry out may affect these species. There is no critical habitat 
designated for any of these species.

Post-Delisting Monitoring

    Section 4(g)(1) of the Act requires us to monitor for not less than 
5 years the status of all species that are delisted due to recovery. 
Post-delisting monitoring refers to activities undertaken to verify 
that a species delisted due to recovery remains secure from the risk of 
extinction after the protections of the Act no longer apply. The 
primary goal of post-delisting monitoring is to monitor the species to 
ensure that its status does not deteriorate, and if a decline is 
detected, to take measures to halt the decline so that proposing it as 
an endangered or threatened species is not again needed. If at any time 
during the monitoring period data indicate that protective status under 
the Act should be reinstated, we can initiate listing procedures, 
including, if appropriate, emergency listing. At the conclusion of the 
monitoring period, we will review all available information to 
determine if relisting, the continuation of monitoring, or the 
termination of monitoring is appropriate.
    Section 4(g) of the Act explicitly requires that we cooperate with 
the States in development and implementation of post-delisting 
monitoring programs. However, we remain ultimately responsible for 
compliance with section 4(g) and, therefore, must remain actively 
engaged in all phases of monitoring. We also seek active participation 
of other entities that are expected to assume responsibilities for the 
species' conservation after delisting, in this case, the Navy, an 
integral partner and the sole owner and manager of San Clemente Island.
    We are currently coordinating with the Navy to develop and 
implement effective post-delisting monitoring (PDM) for the SC Bell's 
sparrow, SCI lotus, SCI paintbrush, SCI larkspur, and SCI bush-mallow. 
The Draft Post-Delisting Monitoring Plan for Five San Clemente Island 
Species (USFWS 2020f, entire) is available at https://www.regulations.gov under Docket No. FWS-R8-ES-2020-0074. The PDM plan 
builds upon current monitoring techniques and research, as well as 
emerging technology and techniques. Monitoring will assess the species' 
numbers, distribution, and threats status, as well as ongoing 
management and conservation efforts that have improved the status of 
the species since listing. The PDM plan identifies, to the extent 
practicable and in accordance with our current understanding of the 
species' life history, measurable thresholds and responses for 
detecting and reacting to significant changes in the species' 
populations, distribution, and viability. If declines are detected 
equaling or exceeding these thresholds, the Service, in combination 
with the Navy, will investigate causes of these declines, including 
considerations of habitat changes, anthropogenic impacts, stochastic 
events, or any other significant evidence. The result of the 
investigation will be to determine if any of the species warrant 
expanded monitoring, additional research, additional habitat 
protection, or resumption of Federal protection under the Act.
    We currently appreciate any information on what should be included 
in post-delisting monitoring strategies for these species (see 
Information Requested, above). Given the Navy's past and current 
stewardship efforts, management for the species has been effective to 
date, and it is reasonable to expect that management will continue to 
be effective for the species and their habitats beyond a post-delisting 
monitoring period, and well into the future. In addition to post-
delisting monitoring activities that would occur if this proposed rule 
becomes final, the Navy anticipates continued management of the species 
in accordance with the SCI INRMP and other management plans. Additional 
monitoring or research (beyond post-delisting monitoring requirements) 
may occur in the future for these and other rare endemics on SCI based 
on available resource levels. We will work closely with the Navy to 
ensure post-delisting monitoring is conducted if these species are 
delisted and to ensure future management strategies are implemented (as 
warranted) to benefit these species.

Required Determinations

Clarity of the Rule
    We are required by Executive Orders 12866 and 12988 and by the 
Presidential Memorandum of June 1, 1998, to write all rules in plain 
language. This means that each rule we publish must:
    (1) Be logically organized;
    (2) Use the active voice to address readers directly;
    (3) Use clear language rather than jargon;
    (4) Be divided into short sections and sentences; and
    (5) Use lists and tables wherever possible.
    If you feel that we have not met these requirements, send us 
comments by one of the methods listed in ADDRESSES. To better help us 
revise the rule, your comments should be as specific as possible. For 
example, you should tell us the numbers of the sections or paragraphs 
that are unclearly written, which sections or sentences are too long, 
the sections where you feel lists or tables would be useful, etc.

National Environmental Policy Act (42 U.S.C. 4321 et seq.)

    We have determined that we do not need to prepare an environmental 
assessment or environmental impact statement, as defined in the 
National Environmental Policy Act (42 U.S.C. 4321 et seq.), in 
connection with determining a species' listing status under the 
Endangered Species Act. We published a notice outlining our reasons for 
this determination in the Federal Register on October 25, 1983 (48 FR 
49244).

Government-to-Government Relationship With Tribes

    In accordance with the President's memorandum of April 29, 1994 
(Government-to-Government Relations with Native American Tribal 
Governments; 59 FR 22951), Executive Order 13175 (Consultation and 
Coordination with Indian Tribal Governments), and the Department of the 
Interior's manual at 512 DM 2, we readily acknowledge our 
responsibility to communicate meaningfully with recognized Federal 
Tribes on a government-to-government basis. In accordance with 
Secretarial Order 3206 of June 5, 1997 (American Indian Tribal Rights, 
Federal-Tribal Trust Responsibilities, and the Endangered Species Act), 
we readily acknowledge our responsibilities to work directly with 
Tribes in developing programs for healthy ecosystems, to acknowledge 
that Tribal lands are not subject to the same controls as Federal 
public lands, to remain sensitive to Indian culture, and to make 
information available to Tribes. There are no Tribal lands associated 
with this proposed rule.

References Cited

    A complete list of references cited in this rulemaking is available 
on the internet at https://www.regulations.gov and upon request from the 
Carlsbad Fish and Wildlife Office (see FOR FURTHER INFORMATION 
CONTACT).

[[Page 23913]]

Authors

    The primary authors of this proposed rule are the staff members of 
the Fish and Wildlife Service's Species Assessment Team and the 
Carlsbad Fish and Wildlife Office.

List of Subjects in 50 CFR Part 17

    Endangered and threatened species, Exports, Imports, Reporting and 
recordkeeping requirements, Transportation.

Proposed Regulation Promulgation

    Accordingly, we propose to amend part 17, subchapter B of chapter 
I, title 50 of the Code of Federal Regulations, as set forth below:

PART 17--ENDANGERED AND THREATENED WILDLIFE AND PLANTS

0
1. The authority citation for part 17 continues to read as follows:

    Authority:  16 U.S.C. 1361-1407; 1531-1544; and 4201-4245, 
unless otherwise noted.


Sec.  17.11  [Amended]

0
2. Amend Sec.  17.11(h) by removing the entry for ``Sparrow, San 
Clemente sage'' under BIRDS from the List of Endangered and Threatened 
Wildlife.


Sec.  17.12  [Amended]

0
3. Amend Sec.  17.12(h) by removing the entries for ``Acmispon 
dendroideus var. traskiae'', ``Castilleja grisea'', ``Delphinium 
variegatum ssp. kinkiense'', and ``Malacothamnus clementinus'' under 
FLOWERING PLANTS from the List of Endangered and Threatened Plants.

Martha Williams,
Principal Deputy Director, Exercising the Delegated Authority of the 
Director, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service.
[FR Doc. 2021-08581 Filed 5-4-21; 8:45 am]
BILLING CODE 4333-15-P