Endangered and Threatened Wildlife and Plants; Removing Lepanthes eltoroensis, 13844-13856 [2020-04824]
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13844
Federal Register / Vol. 85, No. 47 / Tuesday, March 10, 2020 / Proposed Rules
DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR
Fish and Wildlife Service
50 CFR Part 17
[Docket No. FWS–R4–ES–2019–0073;
FXES11130900000–189–FF0932000]
RIN 1018–BB83
Endangered and Threatened Wildlife
and Plants; Removing Lepanthes
eltoroensis From the Federal List of
Endangered and Threatened Plants
Fish and Wildlife Service,
Interior.
ACTION: Proposed rule.
AGENCY:
We, the U.S. Fish and
Wildlife Service, propose to remove
Lepanthes eltoroensis (no common
name), an orchid species from Puerto
Rico, from the Federal List of
Endangered and Threatened Plants
(List) (i.e., to ‘‘delist’’ the species), due
to recovery. This proposed action is
based on a thorough review of the best
available scientific and commercial
data, which indicates that the threats to
the species have been eliminated or
reduced to the point that the species no
longer meets the definition of an
endangered or threatened species under
the Endangered Species Act of 1973, as
amended (Act). We also announce the
availability of a draft post-delisting
monitoring (PDM) plan. We seek
information, data, and comments from
the public regarding this proposal and
the draft PDM plan.
DATES: We will accept comments
received or postmarked on or before
May 11, 2020. Comments submitted
electronically using the Federal
eRulemaking Portal (see ADDRESSES,
below) must be received by 11:59 p.m.
Eastern Time on the closing date. We
must receive requests for a public
hearing, in writing, at the address
shown in FOR FURTHER INFORMATION
CONTACT by April 24, 2020.
ADDRESSES: Written comments: You may
submit comments on this proposed rule
and the draft PDM plan by one of the
following methods:
(1) Electronically: Go to the Federal
eRulemaking Portal: https://
www.regulations.gov. In the Search box,
enter FWS–R4–ES–2019–0073, which is
the docket number for this rulemaking.
Then, click on the Search button. On the
resulting page, in the Search panel on
the left side of the screen, under the
Document Type heading, click on the
Proposed Rule box to locate this
document. You may submit a comment
by clicking on ‘‘Comment Now!’’
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SUMMARY:
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(2) By hard copy: Submit by U.S. mail
or hand-delivery to: Public Comments
Processing, Attn: FWS–R4–ES–2019–
0073, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service,
MS: JAO/1N, 5275 Leesburg Pike, Falls
Church, VA 22041–3803.
We request that you send comments
only by the methods described above.
We will post all comments on https://
www.regulations.gov. This generally
means that we will post any personal
information you provide us (see Public
Comments, below, for more
information).
Document availability: This proposed
rule, the draft PDM plan, and
supporting documents (including the
species status assessment (SSA) report
and references cited) are available at
https://www.regulations.gov under
Docket No. FWS–R4–ES–2019–0073 or
at the Caribbean Ecological Services
Field Office website at https://
www.fws.gov/southeast/caribbean/.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT:
Edwin Mun˜iz, Field Supervisor, U.S.
Fish and Wildlife Service, Caribbean
Ecological Services Field Office.
Physical address: Road 301, Km. 5.1,
Boquero´n, Puerto Rico 00622. Mailing
address: P.O. Box 49, Boquero´n, Puerto
Rico 00622. Telephone: (787) 851–7297.
If you use a telecommunications device
for the deaf (TDD), please call the
Federal Relay Service at (800) 877– 8339
for TTY assistance 24 hours a day, 7
days a week.
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION:
Information Requested
Public Comments
We intend that any final action
resulting from this proposed rule will be
based on the best scientific and
commercial data available and be as
accurate and as effective as possible.
The proposed rule serves as the notice
of initiation and, if finalized, the final
determination fulfills the requirements
of a 5-year review. Therefore, we request
comments or information from other
concerned governmental agencies, the
scientific community, industry, or any
other interested parties concerning this
proposed rule. Because we will consider
all comments and information we
receive during the comment period, our
final determination may differ from this
proposal. We particularly seek new
information not already included in the
species status assessment report
concerning:
(1) Information concerning the
biology and ecology of Lepanthes
eltoroensis;
(2) New information on the historical
and current status, range, distribution,
and population size of L. eltoroensis;
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(3) Relevant data concerning any
threats (or lack thereof) to L. eltoroensis,
particularly any data on the possible
effects of climate to this orchid as it
relates to habitat;
(4) The extent of protection and
management that would be provided by
the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico to L.
eltoroensis as a delisted species;
(5) Current or planned activities
within the geographic range of L.
eltoroensis that may negatively impact
or benefit the species;
(6) The draft PDM plan and the
methods and approach detailed in it;
and
(7) Other relevant information the
public believes we have not considered.
Please include sufficient information
with your submission (such as scientific
journal articles or other publications) to
allow us to verify any scientific or
commercial information you include.
All comments submitted electronically
via https://www.regulations.gov will be
presented on the website in their
entirety as submitted. For comments
submitted via hard copy, we will post
your entire comment—including your
personal identifying information—on
https://www.regulations.gov. You may
request at the top of your document that
we withhold personal information such
as your street address, phone number, or
email address from public review;
however, we cannot guarantee that we
will be able to do so.
Comments and materials we receive,
as well as supporting documentation we
used in preparing this proposed rule,
will be available for public inspection
on https://www.regulations.gov, or by
appointment, during normal business
hours, at the U.S. Fish and Wildlife
Service, Caribbean Ecological Services
Field Office (see FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION CONTACT).
Please note that submissions merely
stating support for, or opposition to, the
action under consideration without
providing supporting information,
although noted, will not be considered
in making a determination, as section
4(b)(1)(A) of the Act (16 U.S.C. 1531 et
seq.) directs that determinations as to
whether any species is an endangered or
threatened species must be made
‘‘solely on the basis of the best scientific
and commercial data available.’’
Public Hearing
Section 4(b)(5) of the Act provides for
a public hearing on this proposal, if
requested. Requests must be received
within 45 days after the date of
publication of this proposed rule in the
Federal Register (see DATES). Such
requests must be sent to the address
shown in FOR FURTHER INFORMATION
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Federal Register / Vol. 85, No. 47 / Tuesday, March 10, 2020 / Proposed Rules
CONTACT.
We will schedule a public
hearing on this proposal, if requested,
and announce the date, time, and place
of the hearing, as well as how to obtain
reasonable accommodations, in the
Federal Register and local newspapers
at least 15 days before the hearing.
Peer Review
In accordance with our joint policy on
peer review published in the Federal
Register on July 1, 1994 (59 FR 34270),
and the Service’s August 22, 2016,
Director’s Memo on the Peer Review
Process, we sought the expert opinions
of five appropriate and independent
specialists regarding the species status
assessment report for Lepanthes
eltoroensis. These peer reviewers have
expertise in L. eltoroensis or similar
epiphytic orchid species’ biology or
habitat, or climate change. We received
comments from one of the five peer
reviewers. The purpose of peer review
is to ensure that our decisions are based
on scientifically sound data,
assumptions, and analyses. The peer
reviewer comments will be available
along with other public comments in
the docket for this proposed rule.
Species Status Assessment Report
A team of Service biologists, in
consultation with other species experts,
prepared a species status assessment
(SSA) report for Lepanthes eltoroensis.
The SSA report represents a
compilation of the best scientific and
commercial data available concerning
the status of the species, including the
impacts of past, present, and future
factors (both negative and beneficial)
affecting the species. As stated above,
we solicited independent peer review of
the SSA report by five individuals with
expertise in L. eltoroensis or similar
epiphytic orchid species’ biology or
habitat, or climate change. The final
SSA, which supports this proposed rule,
was revised, as appropriate, in response
to the comments and suggestions
received from our peer reviewers. The
SSA report and other materials relating
to this proposal can be found on the
Service’s Southeast Region website at
https://www.fws.gov/southeast/ and at
https://www.regulations.gov under
Docket No. FWS–R4–ES–2019–0073.
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Background
Previous Federal Actions
Lepanthes eltorensis (no common
name) was originally recommended for
Federal listing by the Smithsonian
Institution (Ayensu and DeFilipps
1978). In 1980, we included the species
among the plants being considered as
endangered or threatened by the Service
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(45 FR 82480), and subsequently
included it in the annual Candidate
Notice of Review from 1983 through
1989, determining that listing L.
eltorensis was warranted but precluded
by other pending listing actions of a
higher priority. We published a final
rule in the Federal Register listing L.
eltoroensis as an endangered species on
November 29, 1991 (56 FR 60933). On
July 15, 1996, we published the L.
eltoroensis Recovery Plan (USFWS
1996). We completed a 5-year status
review on August 24, 2015 (USFWS
2015). Although the review did not
recommend we reclassify or delist this
orchid, it did indicate that the species
was showing substantial improvement
and a reduced level of threats.
Species Information
A thorough review of the taxonomy,
life history, and ecology of Lepanthes
eltoroensis is presented in the SSA
report (Service 2019, entire), which is
available at https://www.regulations.gov
under Docket No. FWS–R4–ES–2019–
0073, and summarized in this proposed
rule.
Species Description
Lepanthes eltoroensis is a member of
a large genus of more than 800 orchid
species. Approximately 118 species in
this genus are from the Caribbean and
all but one are single-island endemics
(Stimson 1969, p. 332; Barre and
Feldmann 1991, p. 11; Tremblay and
Ackerman 1993, p. 339; Luer 2014, p.
260). This species is a small, epiphytic
orchid about 1.57 inches (in.) (4
centimeters (cm)) tall and is
distinguished from other members of
the genus by its obovate to oblanceolate
leaves, ciliate sepals, and the length of
the inflorescence (Vivaldi et al. 1981, p.
26; Luer 2014, p. 260). The
inflorescence is a long (0.03 in.; 0.75
millimeters (mm)), peduncled raceme
(flower cluster with flowers on separate
short stalks) with reddish flowers. No
more than two flowers are produced at
the same time, and the flowers are open
on the inflorescence for about 10 days
(Mele´ndez-Ackerman and Tremblay
2017, p. 1).
Life History
For purposes of the SSA, we
considered Lepanthes eltoroensis to be a
single metapopulation, the individual
trees that host the L. eltoroensis plants
as subpopulations, and the host tree
aggregates as patches (USFWS 2019, p.
16). A number of characteristics (see
below) suggest that a metapopulation
approach may be appropriate to
understand orchid population dynamics
(see USFWS 2019, pp. 14–15) and
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epiphytic species (Snall et al. 2003, p.
567; Snall et al. 2004, p. 758; Snall et
al. 2005, pp. 209–210), like L.
eltoroensis. Metapopulations are
defined as a set of subpopulations with
independent local dynamics occupying
discrete patches (Hanski 1999, entire;
Hanski and Gaggiotti 2004, pp. 3–22), so
that simultaneous extinction of all
subpopulations is unlikely.
Populations of Lepanthes orchids
exhibit high variance in reproductive
potential, high variance in mean
reproductive lifespan (Tremblay 2000,
pp. 264–265), and few adults per
population (Tremblay 1997a, p. 95).
Less than 20 percent of individuals
reproduce, and most subpopulations (60
percent of host trees) have fewer than 15
individuals. In addition, the distribution
of individuals (seedling, juvenile, and
adults) varies enormously among trees
and is skewed towards few individuals
per tree (Tremblay and VelazquezCastro 2009, p. 214). The lifespan of L.
eltoroensis can reach 30 to 50 years
(Tremblay 1996, pp. 88–89, 114).
However, the mean is 5.2 years, with an
average percent mortality of 10 percent
per year, although this varies greatly
among life stages. Survival increases as
individual orchids reach later life
stages, but fewer plants reach adulthood
and have the opportunity to contribute
offspring to the next generation
(Tremblay 2000, p. 265; Rosa-Fuentes
and Tremblay 2007, p. 207). Because
distribution of the species is within a
protected national forest, access to
moss, dispersal ability, reproductive
success, and lifespan influence
survivorship more than other potential
human-induced threats (Tremblay 2000,
p. 265; Rosa-Fuentes and Tremblay
2007, p. 207).
The reproductive success of
Lepanthes eltoroensis subpopulations is
highly sensitive to temporal variation in
environmental conditions (Tremblay
and Hutchings 2002, entire). Further,
reproductive success of L. eltoroensis, as
in most orchids, is pollinator-limited
(Tremblay et al. 2005, p. 6). This
obligate cross-pollinated species
(Tremblay et al. 2006, p. 78) uses a
deceptive pollination system, typically
characterized by very few reproductive
events (∼ less than 20 percent chance;
Tremblay et al. 2005, p. 12). Although
we do not know the pollinator for L.
eltoroensis, elsewhere fungus gnats visit
Lepanthes orchids (Blanco and Barboza
2005, p. 765) and pollinate by
pseudocopulation; therefore, it is likely
fungus gnats are a pollinator for L.
eltoroensis. Fungus gnats do not travel
far—perhaps tens of meters or even a
few hundred meters (Ackerman 2018)—
limiting pollen dispersal for L.
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eltoroensis. Most L. eltoroensis
pollination occurs among individuals
within a host tree, resulting in high
inbreeding and low genetic variability
(Tremblay and Ackerman 2001, pp. 55–
58). The seeds of L. eltoroensis are
wind-dispersed and require a
mycorrhizal association for germination
and survival until plants start
photosynthesis (Tremblay and
Ackerman 2001, p. 55; Tremblay 2008,
p. 85).
Distribution and Abundance
Lepanthes eltoroensis is endemic to El
Yunque National Forest (El Yunque),
Puerto Rico. It is restricted to one
general area within the Sierra Palm,
Palo Colorado, and dwarf forests of the
El Toro and Trade Winds trails (USFWS
2015, p. 5) at elevations above 2,461 feet
(750 meters) (USFWS 1996, p. 2). At the
time of listing, the species consisted of
an estimated 140 individual plants.
Since then, surveys have located
additional individuals and
subpopulations (groups of L. etoroensis
on the same host tree) resulting in a
much greater estimate of individuals
than at the time of listing. Surveys for
L. eltoroensis have been infrequent,
sparse, and done with varying spatial
spread and methodology, making the
results difficult to compare over time
(USFWS 2019, pp. 34–52). However,
partial surveys conducted periodically
from 2000 to 2018 have found greater
numbers of L. eltoroensis (USFWS 2019,
pp. 49–50). In addition, surveys
conducted between 2000 and 2005
indicated the subpopulations surveyed
along El Toro Trail and Trade Winds
Trail were relatively stable over the 5year period (USFWS 2019, p. 39). The
best available metapopulation estimate
is 3,000 individual plants (Tremblay
2008, p. 90; USFWS 2015, p. 5). Overall,
data collected for the SSA did not
indicate a general pattern of population
decline, but rather natural fluctuations
(USFWS 2019, p. 52).
The metapopulation estimate was
made prior to Category 5 Hurricane
Maria making landfall on Puerto Rico in
2017. A post-hurricane partial survey
along the El Toro Trail was completed
in 2018, and found 641 total plants,
including over 300 that had not been
previously identified (Mele´ndezAckerman 2018, pers. comm.). We note
that this was only a partial survey; there
has never been a complete census of the
entire metapopulation because most of
the areas off the two main trails (El Toro
and Trade Winds) are dangerous and
inaccessible. However, the forest types
Lepanthes eltoroensis is most affiliated
with—Palo Colorado, Sierra Palm, and
Dwarf Forest—cover over 13,000 acres
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(ha) within the El Yunque (USFWS
2019, p. 8). Given the amount of
unreachable habitat that has not been
surveyed, all estimates are likely to
underestimate the true abundance of the
species (USFWS 2019, p. 50). Surveys of
habitat outside traditional population
sites (on or just off trails) could result
in discovery of additional plants
(Tremblay 2008, p. 90; USFWS 2019,
pp. 18, 50, 73). In addition, since the
time of listing, the species has faced
multiple strong hurricanes (Hugo,
Georges, Hortense, Irma, and Maria),
and we currently know of more
individuals than at the time of listing,
indicating the species’ abundance has
remained stable (with all age classes
represented and in good health) despite
such events, and the species has the
ability to recover from stochastic
disturbances (USFWS 2019, pp. 51–52).
Therefore, although the species and its
habitat were harmed by the recent
hurricanes (namely Maria), the previous
estimate of 3,000 individual plants is
still our best estimate.
Habitat
Lepanthes eltoroensis occurs on mosscovered trunks (i.e., host trees) within
upper elevation cloud forests in the
Sierra Palm, Palo Colorado, and Dwarf
Forest associations of El Yunque (Luer
2014, p. 260; Ewel and Whitmore 1973,
pp. 41–49), where humidity ranges from
90 to 100 percent, and cloud cover is
continuous, particularly during the
evening hours (55 FR 41248; October 10,
1990). Important habitat components
seem to be elevation, adequate
temperature and moisture regimes,
open/semi-open gaps in the canopy, and
presence of moss.
Regulatory and Analytical Framework
Regulatory Framework
Section 4 of the Act (16 U.S.C. 1533)
and its implementing regulations (50
CFR part 424) set forth the procedures
for determining whether a species is an
‘‘endangered species’’ or a ‘‘threatened
species.’’ The Act defines an
endangered species as a species that is
‘‘in danger of extinction throughout all
or a significant portion of its range,’’ and
a threatened species as a species that is
‘‘likely to become an endangered
species within the foreseeable future
throughout all or a significant portion of
its range.’’ The Act requires that we
determine whether any species is an
‘‘endangered species’’ or a ‘‘threatened
species’’ because of any of the following
factors:
(A) The present or threatened
destruction, modification, or
curtailment of its habitat or range;
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(B) Overutilization for commercial,
recreational, scientific, or educational
purposes;
(C) Disease or predation;
(D) The inadequacy of existing
regulatory mechanisms; or
(E) Other natural or manmade factors
affecting its continued existence.
These factors represent broad
categories of natural or human-caused
actions or conditions that could have an
effect on a species’ continued existence.
In evaluating these actions and
conditions, we look for those that may
have a negative effect on individuals of
the species, as well as other actions or
conditions that may ameliorate any
negative effects or may have positive
effects.
We use the term ‘‘threat’’ to refer in
general to actions or conditions that are
known to or are reasonably likely to
negatively affect individuals of a
species. The term ‘‘threat’’ includes
actions or conditions that have a direct
impact on individuals (direct impacts),
as well as those that affect individuals
through alteration of their habitat or
required resources (stressors). The term
‘‘threat’’ may encompass—either
together or separately—the source of the
action or condition or the action or
condition itself.
However, the mere identification of
any threat(s) does not necessarily mean
that the species meets the statutory
definition of an ‘‘endangered species’’ or
a ‘‘threatened species.’’ In determining
whether a species meets either
definition, we must evaluate all
identified threats by considering the
expected response by the species, and
the effects of the threats—in light of
those actions and conditions that will
ameliorate the threats—on an
individual, population, and species
level. We evaluate each threat and its
expected effects on the species, then
analyze the cumulative effect of all of
the threats on the species as a whole.
We also consider the cumulative effect
of the threats in light of those actions
and conditions that will have positive
effects on the species—such as any
existing regulatory mechanisms or
conservation efforts. The Secretary
determines whether the species meets
the definition of an ‘‘endangered
species’’ or a ‘‘threatened species’’ only
after conducting this cumulative
analysis and describing the expected
effect on the species now and in the
foreseeable future.
The Act does not define the term
‘‘foreseeable future,’’ which appears in
the statutory definition of ‘‘threatened
species.’’ Our implementing regulations
at 50 CFR 424.11(d) set forth a
framework for evaluating the foreseeable
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future on a case-by-case basis. The term
foreseeable future extends only so far
into the future as the Services can
reasonably determine that both the
future threats and the species’ responses
to those threats are likely. In other
words, the foreseeable future is the
period of time in which we can make
reliable predictions. ‘‘Reliable’’ does not
mean ‘‘certain’’; it means sufficient to
provide a reasonable degree of
confidence in the prediction. Thus, a
prediction is reliable if it is reasonable
to depend on it when making decisions.
It is not always possible or necessary
to define foreseeable future as a
particular number of years. Analysis of
the foreseeable future uses the best
scientific and commercial data available
and should consider the timeframes
applicable to the relevant threats and to
the species’ likely responses to those
threats in view of its life-history
characteristics. Data that are typically
relevant to assessing the species’
biological response include speciesspecific factors such as lifespan,
reproductive rates or productivity,
certain behaviors, and other
demographic factors.
Analytical Framework
We completed a comprehensive
assessment of the biological status of
Lepanthes eltoroensis and prepared a
report of the assessment (SSA report),
which provides a thorough account of
the species’ overall viability using
conservation biology principles of
resiliency, redundancy, and
representation (collectively, the ‘‘3Rs’’).
We define viability here as the ability of
the species to persist over the long term
and, conversely, to avoid extinction. We
have used the SSA report’s assessment
of L. eltoroensis’ current and potential
future conditions, based on the factors
influencing the species and framed in
the context of the 3Rs, to inform our
understanding of risk to the species and
our determination whether L.
eltoroensis continues to meet the
definition of an endangered species,
whether it meets the definition of a
threatened species, or whether it does
not meet the definition of either an
endangered species or a threatened
species (see Determination, below). In
this discussion, we summarize the
conclusions of that assessment, which
can be accessed at https://
www.regulations.gov under Docket No.
FWS–R4–ES–2019–0073.
Lepanthes eltoroensis was listed as an
endangered species in 1991, due to its
rarity (Factor E), its restricted
distribution (Factor E), forest
management practices (Factor A),
impacts from hurricane damage (Factor
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E), and collection (Factor B) (56 FR
60933, November 29, 1991, p. 56 FR
60935). The most important factor
affecting L. eltoroensis at that time was
its limited distribution. Additionally, its
rarity made the species vulnerable to
impacts from hurricanes, such as
unfavorable microclimatic conditions
resulting from numerous canopy gaps.
Because so few individuals were known
to occur, the risk of extinction was
considered to be extremely high (56 FR
60933, November 29, 1991, p. 56 FR
60935).
Summary of Biological Status and
Threats
In this section, we review the
biological condition of the species and
its resources, and the influence to assess
the species’ overall viability and the
risks to that viability.
Risk Factors for Lepanthes eltoroensis
Forest Management Practices
At the time of listing (1991), El
Yunque management practices such as
establishment and maintenance of
plantations, selective cutting, trail
maintenance, and shelter construction
were considered threats to Lepanthes
eltoroensis (56 FR 60933, November 29,
1991, p. 56 FR 60935). The Recovery
Plan further indicated that destruction
and modification of habitat might be the
most significant factors affecting the
number of individuals and distribution
of the species (USFWS 1996, p. 5).
Since the species was listed, several
laws have been enacted that provide
protections to this species. In 1999,
Commonwealth Law No. 241 (New
Wildlife Law of Puerto Rico or Nueva
Ley de Vida Silvestre de Puerto Rico)
was enacted to protect, conserve, and
enhance native and migratory wildlife
species. This law requires authorization
from the Puerto Rico Department of
Natural and Environmental Resources
(PRDNER) Secretary for any action that
may affect the habitat of any species.
Furthermore, part of El Yunque
(including the habitat where Lepanthes
eltoroensis is currently known to occur)
was congressionally designated as the El
Toro Wilderness in 2005, to preserve its
natural conditions, including species
like L. eltoroensis, inhabiting the area
(Caribbean National Forest Act of 2005
(Pub. L. 109–118); the Wilderness Act
(16 U.S.C. 1131 et seq.); U.S. Forest
Service (USFS) 2016, p. 32). The El Toro
Wilderness consists of undeveloped
USFS lands and is managed to preserve
its natural conditions without any
permanent improvements or human
habitation (USFS 2016, p. 32). All
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known populations of L. eltoroensis
occur within this wilderness area.
Scientists who have conducted
research on Lepanthes eltoroensis do
not consider destruction, curtailment, or
modification of this species’ habitat to
be a factor threatening this species
(Ackerman 2007, pers. comm.). In 2019,
the USFS finalized a revised land and
resources management plan to guide the
general direction of El Yunque for the
next 15 years. This plan specifically
includes a set of standards and
guidelines to protect the natural
resources within the El Toro
Wilderness, including listed species.
Standards specific to the El Toro
Wilderness include no salvaging of
timber, no issuing permits for collection
of plants or plant material unless for a
scientific purpose, no new special-use
permits for facilities or occupancy,
managing recreation to minimize the
number of people on the trails, and no
construction of new trails (USFS 2019,
pp. 1, 32–35). Standards and guidelines
for at-risk (including listed) species
detailed in the plan include not
allowing collection of orchids unless
approved for scientific purposes and
making sure forest management
activities are consistent with recovery
plans (USFS 2019, p. 62).
Implementation of management
practices in El Yunque has also
improved; there is no selective cutting,
and maintenance is minimal as both El
Toro and Trade Winds trails receive few
visitors. Mostly researchers and forest
personnel use El Toro and Trade Winds
trails; therefore, few human encounters
are expected (USFS 2016, p. 32).
Additionally, the USFS coordinates
with the Service to avoid or minimize
impacts to a number of other federally
listed species (e.g., Elfin-woods warbler,
Ilex sintenisii) that co-occur within the
same areas a L. eltoroensis as part of
their management practices in
accordance with section 7 of the Act.
There is no evidence suggesting
current forest management practices are
negatively affecting the species or its
specialized habitat (adequate
temperature and moisture regimes, and
presence of moss) (USFWS 2019, p. 24).
Furthermore, based on existing laws, we
expect El Yunque will remain
permanently protected as a nature
reserve and be managed for
conservation. Therefore, we no longer
consider forest management practices or
destruction and modification of habitat
to be threats to the species.
Hurricanes
The extremely restricted distribution
of Lepanthes eltoroensis makes it
particularly vulnerable to large-scale
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disturbances, such as hurricanes and
tropical storms, which frequently affect
islands of the Caribbean (NOAA 2018,
unpaginated). Due to its geographic
location, hurricanes are more frequent
in the northeastern quadrant of Puerto
Rico, where El Yunque is located (White
et al. 2014, p. 30). Current global
climate models are rather poor in
simulating tropical cyclones; however,
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change’s climate simulations suggest
that the Caribbean will experience a
decrease in tropical cyclone frequency,
but an increase in the frequency of the
most intense events (PRCC 2013, p. 10;
USFWS 2019, p. 56).
Cloud forests, where this species
occurs, are much taller than other
vegetation and are higher in elevation,
making them more exposed and more
easily affected by high winds and in
need of more time to recover postdisturbance (Hu and Smith 2018, p.
827). Heavy rains and winds associated
with tropical storms and hurricanes
cause tree defoliation, habitat
modification due to falling of trees, and
landslides (Lugo 2008, p. 368). Surveys
conducted along El Toro Trail following
Hurricane Maria in 2018 focused on
assessing the impacts to the species and
its host trees (subpopulations). Nineteen
host trees were not found and assumed
to be lost due to the hurricane. An
additional nine host trees were found
knocked down. In total, 641 plants,
including seedlings, juveniles, and
reproductive and non-reproductive
adults, were found; 322 were found on
previously marked host trees (including
191 individuals on those host trees that
were knocked to the ground), and 319
were new individuals not previously
surveyed (Melendez-Ackerman 2018,
pers. comm.). Given that Lepanthes
eltoroensis does not persist on felled or
dead trees (Benı´tez and Tremblay 2003,
pp. 67–69), we assume many of these
191 individuals (approximately 30
percent of individuals found) will not
survive, resulting in the loss of those
individuals from the metapopulation.
However, based on previous efforts, we
know individual plants can be moved to
new host trees and do quite well,
highlighting the feasibility of relocation
to increase the species’ long-term
viability in the context of severe
hurricanes such as Hurricane Maria.
University of Puerto Rico researchers
translocated some of these 191
individuals, but because the
translocations occurred months after the
hurricane, we do not expect survival to
be as high as if it had occurred
immediately after the hurricane.
Furthermore, this species has persisted
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from past hurricane events without
active management of translocating
species from felled host trees.
In addition, associated microclimate
changes resulting from downed trees
and landslides after severe storms (e.g.,
increased light exposure, reduction in
relative humidity) may negatively affect
the growth rate of Lepanthes eltoroensis
populations (Tremblay 2008, pp. 89–
90). Following Hurricane Georges in
1998, non-transplanted populations of
L. eltoroensis had negative growth rates,
while groups of plants that were
transplanted to better habitats within
the forest had positive growth rates
(Benitez-Joubert and Tremblay 2003, pp.
67–69). Furthermore, based on data on
related species, L. eltoroensis growth
rates may be negatively affected by
excess light from gaps caused by felled
trees during hurricanes (Fernandez et al.
2003, p. 76).
The inherently low redundancy (the
ability of a species to withstand
catastrophic events) of Lepanthes
eltoroensis due to its limited range
makes hurricanes and tropical storms a
primary risk factor. However, given the
observed stable trend from past surveys
and recent partial surveys in 2018
(USFWS 2019, pp. 39, 45–48), it appears
that the species has the ability to
recover from normal stochastic
disturbances (USFWS 2019, pp. 51–52).
Additionally, relocation has proven to
be a viable conservation strategy for this
species (Benı´tez and Tremblay 2003, pp.
67–69). Relocating plants from fallen
trees to standing trees following
hurricane events results in higher
survival of those transplanted
individuals. This management strategy
can improve and maximize species’
survival and reproductive success after
hurricane events (Benı´tez and Tremblay
2003, pp. 67–69; Tremblay 2008, pp.
83–90). Following this recommendation,
after Hurricane Maria, researchers from
the University of Puerto Rico
translocated some L. eltoroensis
individuals along the El Toro trail.
These individuals are currently being
monitored to assess survival. In
addition, since L. elotoroensis is part of
the USDA Forest Service’s ‘‘Plant
Species of Conservation Interest of El
Yunque’’ (USFS 2018, p. 37) and is
included in the 2016 revised Land and
Resource Management Plan that details
a management concept focused on
conservation, particularly to protect
unique ecological resources (USFS
2016, p.1), the USFS will continue to
implement conservation actions, such as
habitat protection, enhancement, and
relocation of L. eltoroensis individuals
following hurricanes as deemed
necessary.
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Collection
Collection for commercial or
recreational purposes eliminated one
population of Lepanthes eltoroensis
prior to listing under the Act (56 FR
60933; November 29, 1991). The rarity
of the species made the loss of even a
few individuals a critical loss to the
species as a whole.
The USFS regulations in title 36 of the
Code of Federal Regulations at part 261,
section 261.9 (36 CFR 261.9) prohibit
collection of listed plant species in
wilderness areas. Additionally, since
the species was listed under the Act in
1991, other laws have been enacted that
provide protections to the species from
collection or removal. Commonwealth
Law No. 241 (New Wildlife Law of
Puerto Rico or Nueva Ley de Vida
Silvestre de Puerto Rico), enacted in
1999, protects, conserves, and enhances
native and migratory wildlife species.
Specifically, Article 5 of this law
prohibits collection and hunting of
wildlife species, including plants within
the jurisdiction of Puerto Rico without
a permit from the PRDNER Secretary. In
2004, Lepanthes eltoroensis was
included in the list of protected species
of Regulation 6766 (Reglamento 6766
para Regir el Manejo de las Especies
Vulnerables y en Peligro de Extincio´n en
el Estado Libre Asociado de Puerto
Rico), which governs the management of
endangered and threatened species
within the Commonwealth of Puerto
Rico. Article 2.06 of this regulation
prohibits collecting, cutting, and
removing, among other activities, listed
plant individuals within the jurisdiction
of Puerto Rico. L. eltoroensis will likely
remain protected under Commonwealth
laws and regulations even after it is
delisted from the ESA. Commonwealth
Regulation 6766 provides protection to
species that are not federally listed or
that have been removed from the ESA,
and the species will remain protected
under the Wilderness provisions from
the 2016 revised Land and Resource
Management Plan for El Yunque (USFS
2016, entire). According to this plan,
any influences by humans on the
natural process that take place in the
wilderness area will be to protect
threatened and endangered species in
addition to human life (USFS 2016, p.
33). As such, the standards of the plan
include conducting wildlife and plant
habitat/population surveys and
monitoring in a manner compatible with
the goals and objectives of wilderness
(USFS 2016, p. 34). Additional
protection measures include not issuing
forest product permits for collection of
plants or plant material in wilderness
areas (unless for scientific and
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educational purposes and approved by
the forest biologist/ecologist), and
management strategies to design,
construct, and maintain trails to the
appropriate trail standard in order to
meet wilderness standards protections
(USFS 2016, p. 34).
Despite the one documented instance
of collection, the threat of collection is
low, given that few people venture into
the El Toro Wilderness (Tremblay 2007,
pers. comm.) and that the small size
(less than 2 in. (4 cm) tall) and
inconspicuousness of this species makes
it easy to overlook (Ackerman 2007,
pers. comm.; Tremblay 2007, pers.
comm.). Additionally, this species is not
used for commercial or recreational
purposes and is not considered to have
ornamental value (USFWS 2015, p. 8).
Thus, there is no evidence that
collection is currently impacting
Lepanthes eltoroensis (USFWS 2019, p.
24) or likely to do so in the future.
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Small Population Size and Low
Reproduction
The smaller the population, the
greater the probability that fluctuations
in population size from stochastic
variation (e.g., reproduction and
mortality) will lead to extirpation. There
are also genetic concerns with small
populations, including reduced
availability of compatible mates, genetic
drift, and inbreeding depression. Small
subpopulations of Lepanthes eltoroensis
are particularly vulnerable to stochastic
events, thus contributing to lower
species’ viability (USFWS 2019, p. 24).
Lepanthes eltoroensis may experience
declining growth related to the
distribution of individuals among host
trees and demographic processes (e.g.,
reproductive success, survival), which
can be negatively influenced by
environmental and catastrophic risks
(USFWS 2019, p. 25). Fruit production
is limited; therefore, opportunities for
establishment are limited. Less than 20
percent of individuals reproduce, and
most subpopulations (60 percent of host
trees) have fewer than 15 individuals. In
addition, the distribution of individuals
(seedling, juvenile, and adults) varies
enormously among trees and is skewed
towards few individuals per tree
(Tremblay and Velazquez-Castro 2009,
p. 214). Despite small subpopulations of
L. eltoroensis with limited distribution
and naturally limited fruit production,
this species has continued to persist
even after regular exposure to
disturbances. In addition, we now
estimate the species population to be
3,000 individuals, which is a significant
increase from the 140 individuals
known at the time of listing. Therefore,
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the species’ vulnerability to extinction
is reduced.
Genetic Risks
The main genetic risk factor for the
species is low genetic variability. The
effective population size (number of
individuals in a population who
contribute offspring to the next
generation) ranges from 3 to 9 percent
of the standing population (number of
individuals in a population) (Tremblay
and Ackerman 2001, entire). In other
words, for every 100 adults, maybe 9
will transfer genes to the next
generation. In addition, although
Lepanthes eltoroensis can survive for up
to 50 years, most seedlings and
juveniles die (Tremblay 2000, p. 264).
Therefore, very few individuals are
responsible for the majority of seed
production, decreasing the genetic
diversity as a whole in subpopulations
(Mele´ndez-Ackerman and Tremblay
2017, pp. 5–6).
There is evidence for low gene flow
in the species. Estimated gene flow in
Lepanthes eltoroensis is less than two
effective migrants per generation (the
effective generation of the orchid)
(Tremblay and Ackerman 2001, p. 54).
This implies that most mating is among
individuals within a host tree,
potentially resulting in high inbreeding,
low genetic variability, and inbreeding
depression (Tremblay and Ackerman
2001, pp. 55–58). Low genetic diversity
may be reflected in reduced genetic and
environmental plasticity, and thus, low
ability to adapt to environmental
changes. If there are high rates of
inbreeding, this could lead to
inbreeding depression, and could have
profound long-term negative impacts to
the viability of the species (USFWS
2019, pp. 28–29). However, the species
is likely an obligate cross-pollinated
species (Tremblay et al. 2006, p. 78),
which is a mechanism to reduce
inbreeding. Additionally, this species
has demonstrated the ability to adapt to
changing environmental conditions (i.e.,
natural disturbances) over time (USFWS
2019, p. 54).
Effects of Climate Change
The average temperatures at El
Yunque have increased over the past 30
years (Jennings et al. 2014, p. 4;
Khalyani et al. 2016, p. 277). Climate
projections indicate a 4.6 to 9 degrees
Celsius (°C) (8.2 to 16.2 degrees
Fahrenheit (°F)) temperature increase
for Puerto Rico from 1960–2099
(Khalyani et al. 2016, p. 275).
Additionally, projections indicate a
decrease in precipitation and
acceleration of the hydrological cycles
resulting in wet and dry extremes
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(Jennings et al. 2014, p. 4; Cashman et
al. 2010, pp. 52–54). In one downscaled
model, precipitation is projected to
decrease faster in wetter regions like the
Luquillo Mountains, where El Yunque
is located, and the central mountains of
Puerto Rico (Khalyani et al. 2016, p.
274). In contrast, ongoing research
suggests higher elevations may have a
buffering effect on declining trends in
precipitation (Bowden 2018, pers.
comm.; USFWS 2019, pp.65–66).
Downscaled modeling for Puerto Rico
was based on three Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change global
emissions scenarios from the CMIP3
data set: mid-high (A2), mid-low (A1B),
and low (B2) (Khalyani et al. 2016, p.
267). Under all of these scenarios,
emissions increase, precipitation
declines, temperature and total dry days
increase, and subtropical rain and wet
forests are lost, while all wet and moist
forest types decrease in Puerto Rico; the
differences in the scenarios depends on
the extent of these changes and the
timing of when they are predicted to
occur (USFWS 2019, p.67).
The most important potential risk to
Lepanthes eltoroensis is the projected
shift of the life zones of Puerto Rico
from humid to drier. This includes
changes in relative area and distribution
pattern of the life zones, and the
disappearance of humid life zones
(Khalyani et al. 2016, p. 275). Decreased
rainfall in northeastern Puerto Rico (i.e.,
El Yunque) can cause migration,
distribution changes, and potential
extirpation of many species that depend
on the unique environmental conditions
of the rain forest (Weaver and Gould
2013, p. 62). These projections may
have direct implications for L.
eltoroensis because the acreage of the
lower montane wet forest life zone it
occupies could decrease, resulting in
less habitat available for the species.
Epiphytes like L. eltoroensis could
experience moisture stress due to higher
temperatures and less cloud cover with
a rising cloud base, affecting their
growth and flowering (Nadkarni and
Solano 2002, p. 584). Due to its
specialized ecological requirements and
restricted distributions within the dwarf
forest, L. eltoroensis could be more
adversely impacted by the effects of
climate change than other species with
wider distribution (e.g., lower elevation
species) and greater plasticity, thus,
reducing its viability. Predictions of life
zone changes are not expected to affect
resiliency of L. eltoroensis until after
mid-century, and predictions out to
2100 vary in severity of impact (USFWS
2019, p.69).
Another potential risk to Lepanthes
eltoroensis is the increase in
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catastrophic hurricanes resulting from
climate change. The persistence of L.
eltoroensis through repeated past
hurricanes and other storms suggests it
has the ability to recover and adapt from
disturbances, and relocation of
individuals from blown-down host trees
further accelerates the recovery of the
species post-hurricane (USFWS 2019, p.
73). In fact, ongoing monitoring show an
initial positive population growth rate
of L. eltoroensis despite the loss of host
trees following hurricane Marı´a
(Melendez-Ackerman 2019, pers.
comm.).
Overall we anticipate the range of
Lepanthes eltoroensis to contract due to
changes in climatic variables leading to
loss of wet and tropical montane
habitats, potentially exacerbated by an
increase in the frequency and severity of
hurricanes by the end of the century
(2100). However, surveys outside of the
areas where the species is traditionally
searched, along with an associated
habitat model, would help better predict
the future viability of L. eltoroensis
(USFWS 2019, p. 73). Although changes
to precipitation and drought,
temperature, and life zones are expected
to occur on Puerto Rico, over the next
20 to 30 years they are not predicted to
be substantial. Modeling shows
dramatic changes to Puerto Rico through
2100, the divergence in these
projections increases dramatically after
mid-century, making projections beyond
20 to 30 years more uncertain (Khalyani
et al. 2016, p. 275). Moreover, L.
eltoroensis is found in a protected area
where synergistically damaging forest
management practices are unlikely to
occur, and there is the requirement for
implementation of conservation
management practices to mitigate
negative impacts such as those caused
by hurricanes.
Summary of Current Condition
Viability is defined as the ability of
the species to sustain populations in the
wild over time. To assess the viability
of Lepanthes eltoroensis, we used the
three conservation biology principles of
resiliency, representation, and
redundancy (Shaffer and Stein 2000, pp.
306–310). Briefly, resiliency supports
the ability of the species to withstand
environmental and demographic
stochasticity (for example, wet or dry,
warm or cold years); representation
supports the ability of the species to
adapt over time to long-term changes in
the environment (for example, climate
changes); and redundancy supports the
ability of the species to withstand
catastrophic events (for example,
droughts, hurricanes). In general, the
more redundant and resilient a species
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is and the more representation it has,
the more likely it is to sustain
populations over time, even under
changing environmental conditions.
Resiliency
Factors that influence the resiliency of
Lepanthes eltoroensis include
abundance and growth trends within
host trees, and habitat factors such as
elevation, slope, aspect, precipitation,
temperature, canopy cover, and
presence of moss, mycorrhizal fungi,
and pollinators. Influencing those
factors are elements of L. eltoroensis’
ecology that determine whether
populations can grow to maximize
habitat occupancy, thereby increasing
resiliency. Stochastic factors that have
the potential to affect L. eltoroensis
include impacts to its habitat from
hurricanes and effects of climate change
(i.e., changes in temperature and
precipitation regimes). Beneficial factors
that influence resiliency include the
protected status of the species’ habitat,
as the known range of the species is
entirely within the El Toro Wilderness
and therefore protected from humaninduced habitat loss and collection.
The best available surveys of
Lepanthes eltoroensis found that the
number of individuals is greater than at
the time of listing (Tremblay 2008, p.
90), approximately 3,000 individual
plants. The distribution of L. eltoroensis
has not been investigated outside of
traditional areas (i.e., just off El Toro
and Trade Wind Trails); however, some
researchers suggest that additional
populations may occur within suitable
habitat outside El Toro Trail. In fact,
additional individuals have been found
near, but outside El Toro Trail
(Tremblay 2008, p. 90). Assuming a
metapopulation size of 3,000
individuals, and observed stable
subpopulations from past surveys
(including recent partial surveys in
2018), this suggests the species has the
ability to recover from normal stochastic
disturbances; thus, we consider the
species to be moderately resilient.
species. Available data suggest that
conditions are present for genetic drift
and inbreeding (Tremblay 1997a, p. 92).
However, the effect of a genetic drift on
the species into the future is uncertain,
and the most updated L. eltoroensis
information shows that the species has
the ability to adapt to changing
environmental conditions (i.e., natural
disturbances) over time. Furthermore,
some of the factors that we concluded
would reduce representation at the time
of listing, such as habitat destruction
and collection, are no longer acting as
stressors upon the species. Finally,
because the population is significantly
larger than was known at the time of
listing, representation has improved.
Redundancy
Redundancy for Lepanthes eltoroensis
is the total number and resilience of
subpopulations and their distribution
across the species’ range. This species is
endemic to El Yunque, and it has not
been introduced elsewhere. Despite the
presence of multiple subpopulations
(i.e., host trees), these subpopulations
are located within a narrow/restricted
range at El Toro Wilderness Area and
are all exposed to similar specific
habitat and environmental conditions.
Population surveys by Mele´ndezAckerman et al. (2018) accounted for at
least 61 host trees or subpopulations
prior to hurricane Maria. Of these,
Mele´ndez-Ackerman et al. (2018) were
not able to locate 19 host trees following
the hurricane, and studies are ongoing
to determine the species response from
the disturbance. Although redundancy
is inherently low due to the narrow
range the species inhabits, it has
persisted despite past natural
disturbances (i.e., hurricanes, tropical
storms, etc.), and is considered more
abundant within its habitat than
previously documented.
Projected Future Status
Lepanthes eltoroensis only occurs
within the protected El Yunque lands
where stressors—including forest
management practices, urban
Representation
development surrounding El Yunque,
and overcollection—are not expected to
We lack genetic and ecological
be present or are expected to remain
diversity data to characterize
representation for Lepanthes eltoroensis. relatively stable and unlikely to affect
the species in the future. Because L.
In the absence of species-specific
eltoroensis occurs on protected lands
genetic and ecological diversity
managed by the USFS, it will benefit
information, we typically evaluate
from their ongoing conservation
representation based on the extent and
practices, which include the relocation
variability of habitat characteristics
of plants from fallen host trees after a
across the geographical range. Because
hurricane as deemed necessary, to
the species does not appear to have
alleviate the negative impacts of these
much physiological flexibility, given
that it has a rather restricted distribution storm events. The effect of genetic drift
on the species into the future is
(cloud forests on ridges), representative
uncertain, but L. eltoroensis has thus far
units were not delineated for this
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demonstrated the ability to adapt to
changing environmental conditions (i.e.,
natural disturbances) over time (USFWS
2019, pp. 51–52). The primary stressor
affecting the future condition of L.
eltoroensis is current and ongoing
climate change stressors (Mele´ndezAckerman and Tremblay 2017, p. 1) and
the associated shifts in rainfall,
temperature, and storm intensities.
These stressors account for indirect and
direct effects at some level to all life
stages and across the species’ range.
All of these climate change stressors
are predicted to result in shifts in the
distribution of life zones present on
Puerto Rico, with some of the most
dramatic impacts predicted to occur in
the latter half of the century in the
tropical and subtropical wet forests in
which the species resides (USFWS
2019, p. 57). Key life-history factors that
make this species vulnerable to climate
change stressors are its restricted range
within the tropical and subtropical wet
forests within El Yunque and low
subpopulation sizes (USFWS 2015, pp.
7–10). Given the relatively low genetic
and environmental plasticity of the
species, it potentially does not have the
capacity to adapt to these predicted
conditions (USFWS 2019, p. 52).
To examine the potential future
condition of Lepanthes eltoroensis, we
used three future scenarios based on
climate change predictions for Puerto
Rico (Khalyani et al. 2016, entire),
which used global emission scenarios
(mid-high (A2), mid-low (A1B), and low
(B1) (Nakicenovic and Swart 2000,
entire)) to capture a range of possible
scenarios. Our assessment of future
viability includes qualitative
descriptions of the likely impacts of
climate change under the above three
scenarios from the literature, and is
intended to capture the uncertainty in
the species’ response to climate
stressors, and the lack of information on
abundance and growth rates.
Climate Change Predictions
Projections out to the year 2100
predict increases in temperature and
decreases in precipitation, particularly
in wetter regions like El Yunque
(Khalyani et al. 2016, pp. 274–275).
However, divergence in temperature
and precipitation projections increases
dramatically after mid-century,
depending on the scenario (Khalyani et
al. 2016, p. 275; USFWS 2019, pp. 59–
62), making projections beyond 20 to 30
years uncertain. Given the average
lifespan of the species (approximately 5
years), a period of 20 to 30 years allows
for multiple generations and detection
of any population changes.
Additionally, the species has been listed
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for close to 30 years, so we have a
baseline to understand how populations
have performed in that period.
Therefore, the ‘‘foreseeable future’’ used
in this determination is 20 to 30 years.
Precipitation and Drought
In general, projections show similar
patterns of changes in precipitation and
drought intensity and extremes,
although total changes were greater for
the A2 scenario (Khalyani et al. 2016,
pp. 272–273, 274; USFWS 2019, pp. 59–
60). Under scenarios A2, A1B, and B1,
annual precipitation is projected to
decrease by 510 to 916 millimeters (mm)
(20 to 36 in.), 354 to 842 mm (14 to 33
in.), and 312 to 619 mm (12 to 24 in.),
respectively, by 2100. Current annual
precipitation in Puerto Rico averages
745 to 4,346 mm (29 to 171 in.).
However, differences in precipitation
between the three scenarios were greater
after the mid-century (Khalyani et al.
2016, p. 274). Before then decreases in
rainfall are expected to be far less;
rainfall decreases are expected to be
0.0012 to 0.0032 mm per day per year
through 2050 (PRCC 2013, p. 7).
Additionally, for all three climate
scenarios, significant decreases in
precipitation for the northern wet
forests are not predicted until after 2040
(USFWS 2019, p. 60). Furthermore, the
U.S. Geological Survey projection for
Puerto Rico predicts an overall drying of
the island and a reduction in extreme
rainfall occurrence; however, this model
suggests higher elevations, like those
supporting L. eltoroensis, may have a
buffering effect on declining trends in
precipitation (Bowden 2018, pers.
comm.). Therefore, precipitation
declines are not likely to occur in the
area supporting L. eltoroensis during the
foreseeable future. On the other hand,
drought intensity increased steadily
under all three scenarios, but with a
gradual increase in drought extremes
(Khalyani et al. 2016, pp. 274–275).
This increase is linear for all three
scenarios.
Temperature
By 2100, all three scenarios predict
increases in temperature with increases
of 7.5–9.0 °C (13.5–16.2 °F), 6.4–7.6 °C
(11.5–13.4 °F), and 4.6–5.4 °C (8.3–
9.7 °F) under the A2, A1B, and B1
scenarios, respectively (Khalyani et al.
2016, p. 275). However, like with
precipitation, projected increases in
temperature are not substantial until
after 2040. Projections show only a 0.8
°C (1.4 °F) increase by mid-century
under all three scenarios. These
scenarios differentiate the most from
each other in later time intervals (after
2040) (Khalyani et al. 2016, pp. 275,
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277). However, we are not aware of any
information that would indicate these
air temperature increases will influence
formation of the cloud cover over El
Yunque, which could in turn impact
interior temperatures and humidity of
the forest, where Lepanthes eltoroensis
is found.
Life Zones
Dramatic changes are projected in the
life zone distributions in Puerto Rico,
although the changes vary by life zone
and are predicted to be much more
significant after mid-century. Because
life zones are derived from climate
variables (e.g., precipitation and
temperature), general changes in life
zone distribution are similar to changes
in climatic variables. For example,
annual precipitation changes will result
in shifts from rain, wet and moist zones
to drier zones (Khalyani et al. 2016, p.
275), and changes in temperature will
result in changes from subtropical to
tropical. In general, decreasing trends
were observed in the areas of wet and
moist zones, while increasing trends
were observed in dry zones under all
three scenarios (Khalyani et al. 2016,
pp. 275, 279). Under all scenarios, loss
of subtropical rain and wet forests are
observed, although decreasing trends
were observed in the area of wet and
moist zones, while increasing trends
were observed in the areas of dry zones
in all three scenarios. Additionally, the
loss of wet and moist zones in the
northeastern mountain area that
supports Lepanthes eltoroensis is not
predicted to be substantial, and the area
remains relatively stable until after 2040
(USFWS 2019 p. 69). This may be due
to possible buffering effects of elevation
across the island.
In summary, changes to precipitation
and drought, temperature, and life zones
are expected to occur on Puerto Rico,
but over the next 20 to 30 years, they
are not predicted to be substantial.
Although modeling shows changes to
Puerto Rico through 2100, the
divergence in these projections
increases dramatically after midcentury, making projections beyond 20
to 30 years more uncertain.
These projected changes may have
direct or at least indirect effects on
Lepanthes eltoroensis; however,
viability of the species under all
scenarios is expected to remain stable
within the foreseeable future (USFWS
2019, p. 71). Potential direct effects
include a reduced number of seedlings
as the number of dry days increase, a
reduced number of fruits as minimum
average temperature increases, and a
reduced number of adults as maximum
temperature increases (Olaya-Arenas et
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al. 2011, p. 2042). Additionally,
projected changes in hurricane
frequencies (and associated habitat
changes) may negatively affect the
growth rate of L. eltoroensis populations
(Tremblay 2008, pp. 89–90) due to
increases in light penetration from
defoliation. Indirect effects are related to
potential changes in moss cover and
composition due to temperature and
precipitation changes. Data from related
species showed that orchid density,
growth, and establishment were
positively associated with moss species
richness (Crain 2012, pp. 15–16; GarciaCancel et al. 2013, p. 6). Therefore, a
change in forest temperature and
humidity could affect the establishment
and distribution of moss and, thus, L.
eltoroensis (USFWS 2019, p. 11).
Persistence of the species through
repeated past hurricanes and other
storms suggests the species has the
ability to recover and adapt from
disturbances, and relocation of
individuals from blown-down host trees
further accelerates the recovery of the
species post-hurricane. In fact, many
researchers at El Yunque have
concluded that hurricanes are the main
organizing force of the forests (USFWS
2019, p. 71). The forests go through a
cycle that averages 60 years, starting
with great impact by winds and rain of
a hurricane, and then 60 years of
regrowth (Lugo 2008, p. 371). In those
60 years of regrowth, complete changes
in the species that dominate the
landscape can occur. Although the
hurricane appears destructive, it can be
constructive because it makes the area
more productive—it rejuvenates the
forest (USFWS 2019, p. 71). Currently,
El Yunque is at the initial phase of early
succession following Hurricane Maria
(2017), which produced severe tree
mortality and defoliation, including
Lepanthes eltoroensis host trees.
In general, we anticipate the range of
the species may contract somewhat due
to changes in climatic variables,
although the loss of wet and moist zones
in the northeastern mountain area that
supports Lepanthes eltoroensis is not
predicted to be substantial by midcentury (USFWS 2019, p. 66). The range
contraction may be exacerbated by an
increase in the frequency and severity of
hurricanes. However, as the species
occurs within El Yunque, synergistic
negative effects of development and
deleterious forest management practices
are unlikely threats to the species in the
future. Currently, L. eltoroensis and its
habitat at the El Yunque are protected
by Congressional designation of El Toro
Wilderness Area (Forest Plan 2016, p.
32), thus precluding human
disturbance. Because the El Yunque
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management plan includes a set of
standards and guidelines to protect the
natural resources within the El Toro
Wilderness, including other cooccurring federally listed species (e.g.,
Ilex sintenisii and Ternstroemia
luquillensis) (USFS 2019, pp. 1, 32–35),
the Service anticipates continued
implementation of conservation and
management practices to improve the
habitat of all species within the area,
including actions to mitigate hurricane
impacts.
Future Viability
Resiliency
Under all future scenarios, resiliency
is projected to remain moderate through
at least the next 20 to 30 years. As
mentioned above, there is very little
projected contraction of the wet and
moist forests within this timeframe.
Although increasing catastrophic
hurricanes are possible, relocation of
plants can ameliorate some of these
impacts.
Redundancy
Redundancy is expected to remain
stable under all scenarios for the next 20
to 30 years, although this prediction is
uncertain given the very limited range
of the species and the lack of knowledge
about the full extent of the species’
range (i.e., no surveys conducted off the
two main trails). However, Lepanthes
eltoroensis has persisted through
catastrophic events in the past, and we
expect it to persist into the foreseeable
future.
Representation
Because the species does not appear
to have much physiological flexibility,
given that it has a rather restricted
distribution, representative units were
not delineated for this species. The
current condition of low genetic and
environmental diversity, and little
breadth to rely on if some plants are
lost, is expected to continue under all
scenarios, at least through the next 20 to
30 years. Available data suggest that
conditions are present for genetic drift
and inbreeding. However, Lepanthes
eltoroensis has demonstrated the ability
to adapt to changing environmental
conditions (i.e., natural disturbances)
over time.
Recovery and Recovery Plan
Implementation
Section 4(f) of the Act directs us to
develop and implement recovery plans
for the conservation and survival of
endangered and threatened species
unless we determine that such a plan
will not promote the conservation of the
species. Recovery plans are not
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regulatory documents. Rather, they are
intended to establish goals for long-term
conservation of a listed species and
define criteria that are designed to
indicate when the threats facing a
species have been removed or reduced
to such an extent that the species may
no longer need the protections of the
Act. Recovery plans also provide
guidance to our Federal, State, and other
governmental and nongovernmental
partners on methods to minimize threats
to listed species.
There are many paths to
accomplishing recovery of a species,
and recovery may be achieved without
all criteria being fully met. For example,
one or more criteria may have been
exceeded while other criteria may not
have been accomplished or become
obsolete, yet the Service may judge that,
overall, the threats have been
minimized sufficiently, and the species
is robust enough, to reclassify the
species from endangered to threatened
or perhaps delist the species. In other
cases, recovery opportunities may be
recognized that were not known at the
time the recovery plan was finalized.
These opportunities may be used
instead of methods identified in the
recovery plan.
Likewise, information on the species
that was not known at the time the
recovery plan was finalized may become
available. The new information may
change the extent that criteria need to be
met for recognizing recovery of the
species. Recovery of species is a
dynamic process requiring adaptive
management that may, or may not, fully
follow the guidance provided in a
recovery plan.
The following discussion provides a
brief review of recovery planning and
implementation for Lepanthes
eltoroensis, as well as an analysis of the
recovery criteria and goals as they relate
to evaluating the status of this orchid.
The Lepanthes eltoroensis Recovery
Plan was approved on July 15, 1996.
The objective of the Recovery Plan is to
provide direction for reversing the
decline of this orchid and for restoring
the species to a self-sustaining status,
thereby permitting eventual removal
from the Federal List of Endangered and
Threatened Plants (USFWS 1996, p. 8).
However, the Recovery Plan provides
only criteria for reclassifying the species
from endangered to threatened
(‘‘downlisting’’). The specific criteria
are: (1) Prepare and implement an
agreement between the Service and the
USFS concerning the protection of L.
eltoroensis within El Yunque, and (2)
establish new populations capable of
self-perpetuation within protected areas
(USFWS 1996, p. 8). The plan also
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includes the following recovery actions
intended to address threats to the
species:
(1) Prevent further habitat loss and
population decline;
(2) Continue to gather information on
the species’ distribution and abundance;
(3) Conduct research;
(4) Establish new populations; and
(5) Refine recovery criteria.
The following discussion provides
specific details for each of these actions
and the extent to which the recovery
criteria have been met.
Recovery Action 1: Prevent Further
Habitat Loss and Population Decline
This action has been met. In the past,
the species’ primary threat was
identified as destruction and
modification of habitat associated with
forest management practices (e.g.,
establishment and maintenance of
plantations, selective cutting, trail
maintenance, and shelter construction;
56 FR 60933, November 29, 1991). As
described above under ‘‘Forest
Management Practices,’’ the best
available data indicates that forest
management practices are no longer
negatively affecting Lepanthes
eltoroensis. Furthermore, the area where
the species is found is within a
protected area (El Yunque), part of
which is the El Toro Wilderness
designated in 2005, where the land is
managed to preserve its natural
conditions and species like L.
eltoroensis (USFS 2016, p. 32). We
expect this wilderness area will remain
permanently protected as a nature
reserve and be managed for
conservation. Additionally, because this
area is within a National Forest, the
National Forest Management Act of
1976 (16 U.S.C. 1600 et seq.), requires
El Yunque to develop management
plans. As noted above, El Yunque plan
specifically includes a set of standards
and guidelines to protect the natural
resources within the El Toro
Wilderness. Moreover, Federal agencies
are mandated to carry out programs for
the conservation of endangered species
under section 7 of the Act to ensure that
any action authorized, funded, or
carried out by a Federal agency is not
likely to jeopardize the continued
existence of a federally listed species.
The USFS continually consults with the
Service to avoid and minimize impacts
to listed species and their habitat at El
Yunque. L. eltoroensis shares habitat
with other federally listed species (e.g.,
Ilex sintenisii, Ternstroemia
luquillensis, and Elfin-woods warbler);
thus, the USFS will continue to consult
with the Service on projects that could
affect listed species in this area.
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Additionally, since the species was
listed in 1991, many more individuals
have been found and observed growth
has been stable with no documented
decline in the population.
Recovery Action 2: Continue To Gather
Information on the Species’ Distribution
and Abundance
This action has been met. Since the
species was listed in 1991, several
surveys for Lepanthes eltoroensis have
been conducted. Although these surveys
have been infrequent, sparse, and done
with varying spatial spread and
methodology, making the results
difficult to compare over time, even
partial surveys have found greater
numbers of L. eltoroensis. Surveys have
indicated stable growth rates. While the
best available estimate of the
metapopulation is 3,000 individuals,
surveys likely underestimate the
species’ true abundance as suitable
habitat off the two main trails are
dangerous and mostly inaccessible,
preventing additional surveys. Surveys
of habitat outside traditional population
sites may result in additional
individuals.
Recovery Action 3: Conduct Research
This action has been met; however we
continue to conduct research on the
species. Information has been collected
throughout the years on the distribution
and dispersion patterns of Lepanthes
eltoroensis (Tremblay 1997a, pp. 85–96),
variance in floral morphology (Tremblay
1997b, pp. 38–45), and genetic
differentiation (Tremblay and Ackerman
2001, pp. 47–62). In 2016, the Service
and the PRDNER provided funding to
researchers at the University of Puerto
Rico to evaluate the current population
status of L. eltoroensis and model its
demographic variation in response to
climatic variability (i.e., temperature
and relative humidity). This study is an
effort to evaluate the influence that
climate change will have on the
persistence of this species in its
environment. Results are anticipated to
be available later in 2020 and will be
factored into our final determination on
this proposed rule. Data gathered during
this project will also be used to
characterize the microhabitat variation
between areas with and without L.
eltoroensis and develop a habitat
selection model to evaluate the
relationship between the presence and
absence of plants and landscape-level
variables such as elevation, forest type,
aspect, and temperature. Additionally,
these data will allow for development of
a monitoring infrastructure to model the
demographic responses of L. eltoroensis
to climate variation. This research will
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update the distribution and status of L.
eltoroensis within El Yunque, and
assess natural threats, particularly
climate change, affecting these
populations. However, the best available
data indicates that the species is
projected to remain viable, and the
results of the additional surveys, while
helpful information, is not required.
Recovery Action 4: Establish New
Populations
This action has not been met but is no
longer necessary. At the time of listing,
only 140 plants were thought to exist;
we now estimate a population size of
3,000 individuals. The 2015 5-year
status review of Lepanthes eltoroensis
states that the action to establish new
populations is not necessary at this time
for the recovery of the species because
additional sub-populations and
individuals have been found since the
species was listed (USFWS 2015, p. 5).
Additionally, relocation of plants from
fallen trees onto standing trees
following hurricane events was found to
be an effective management strategy to
improve and maximize survival and
reproductive success (Benı´tez and
Tremblay 2003, pp. 67–69).
Recovery Action 5: Refine Recovery
Criteria
This action has not been met but will
no longer be necessary. The Recovery
Plan states that as additional
information on Lepanthes eltoroensis is
gathered, it will be necessary to better
define, and possibly modify, recovery
criteria. Based on the information
compiled in the SSA (USFWS 2019,
entire) this orchid is projected to remain
viable over time, such that it may no
longer meet the definition of an
endangered or threatened species (see
Determination).
Recovery Criterion 1: Prepare and
Implement and Agreement Between the
Service and the USFS Concerning the
Protection of Lepanthes eltoroensis
Within El Yunque
This criterion has been partially met.
Although there is not a specific
agreement between the Service and the
USFS concerning the protection of
Lepanthes eltoroensis, the intent of this
criterion—to provide long-term
protection for the species—has been
met. Existing populations and the
species’ habitat are protected. As stated
before, this orchid species occurs within
the El Toro Wilderness area where
habitat destruction or modification is no
longer considered a threat to the species
or its habitat. The implementation of
management practices in the forest has
improved, no selective cutting is
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conducted, and the USFS coordinates
with the Service to avoid impacts to
listed species as part of their
management practices. Because this
species overlaps with other listed
species, the USFS will continue to
consult on projects that may affect this
area. Furthermore, Commonwealth laws
and regulations protect the species’
habitat as well as the species from
collection and removal. There is no
evidence that L. eltoroensis or its habitat
is being negatively impacted; therefore,
a formal agreement between the Service
and the USFS is not necessary for
protecting this species.
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Recovery Criterion 2: Establish New
Populations Capable of SelfPerpetuation Within Protected Areas
As stated under Recovery Action 4,
we have found that the action to
establish new populations is not
necessary at this time for the recovery
of the species because additional subpopulations and individuals have been
found since the species was listed
(USFWS 2015, p. 5). Additionally,
relocation of plants is an effective
management strategy to improve and
maximize survival and reproductive
success, as has been demonstrated after
hurricane events (Benı´tez and Tremblay
2003, pp. 67–69).
Summary
The Recovery Plan for Lepanthes
eltoroensis provided direction for
reversing the decline of this species,
thereby informing when the species may
be delisted. The Recovery Plan outlined
two criteria for reclassifying the species
from endangered to threatened: (1)
Prepare and implement an agreement
between the Service and the USFS
concerning the protection of L.
eltoroensis within El Yunque, and (2)
establish new populations capable of
self-perpetuation within protected areas.
Both of these criteria have been partially
met or are no longer considered
necessary. This species is protected by
Commonwealth law and regulations,
and will continue to be should the
species no longer require Federal
protection, and occurs within a
protected wilderness area that will
remain protected and managed using
techniques that are beneficial for this
and other co-occurring federally listed
species. There is no evidence that L.
eltoroensis or its habitat is being
negatively impacted by forest
management activities or will be in the
future. Additionally, the designation of
wilderness where the species occurs has
eliminated the need for a formal
agreement between the Service and the
USFS to protect this species. Since the
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species was listed under the Act and the
Recovery Plan was written, additional
plants have been found; therefore,
establishment of new populations is not
necessary at this time for recovery.
Additionally, the five recovery actions
intended to address threats to the
species have all been either met or
determined to no longer be necessary for
recovery.
Determination of Status of Lepanthes
eltoroensis
Section 4 of the Act (16 U.S.C. 1533),
and its implementing regulations (50
CFR part 424), set forth the procedures
for determining whether a species meets
the definition of ‘‘endangered species’’
or ‘‘threatened species.’’ The Act defines
an ‘‘endangered species’’ as a species
that is in danger of extinction
throughout all or a significant portion of
its range, and a ‘‘threatened species’’ as
a species that is likely to become an
endangered species within the
foreseeable future throughout all or a
significant portion of its range. The Act
requires that we determine whether a
species meets the definition of
‘‘endangered species’’ or ‘‘threatened
species’’ because of any of the following
factors: (A) The present or threatened
destruction, modification, or
curtailment of its habitat or range; (B)
overutilization for commercial,
recreational, scientific, or educational
purposes; (C) disease or predation; (D)
the inadequacy of existing regulatory
mechanisms; or (E) other natural or
manmade factors affecting its continued
existence.
Status Throughout All of Its Range
After evaluating threats to the species
and assessing the cumulative effect of
the threats under the section 4(a)(1)
factors, we note that more individuals
are known to occur than at the time of
listing. Additionally, the best
metapopulation estimate of 3,000
individuals is likely an underestimate,
as not all potential habitat has been
surveyed. Despite the effects of a small
population size, continued limited
distribution, and evidence of low gene
flow (Factor E), the species has persisted
and adapted to changing environmental
conditions. Forest management
practices (Factor A) and collection
(Factor B) are not currently a threat to
this species, nor are they anticipated to
negatively affect Lepanthes eltoroensis
in the future. Although hurricanes
(Factor E) have the potential to
negatively impact growth rates and
survival of L. eltoroensis, observed
stable subpopulations, even after recent
severe hurricanes, indicate this species
has the ability to recover from these
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natural disturbances. Additionally,
relocation of plants is a viable
management strategy that can improve
and maximize survival and
reproduction success. The greatest
threat to the future of L. eltoroensis is
current and ongoing effects of climate
change factors (Factor E); however,
while changes to precipitation and
drought, temperature, and life zones are
expected to occur on Puerto Rico,
within the foreseeable future, they are
not predicted to be substantial, and the
viability of the species is expected to
remain stable. We anticipate small
population dynamics (Factor E) will
continue to be a concern, as there is
already evidence of genetic drift, but
L.eltoroensis has demonstrated the
ability to adapt to changing
environmental conditions over time at
population levels lower than they are
currently or projected to be in the
future.
The species was originally listed as an
endangered species due to its rarity,
restricted distribution, specialized
habitat, and vulnerability to habitat
destruction or modification, as well as
because of collection for commercial/
recreational uses. We find that these
threats are no longer affecting the status
of the species as they have been
minimized or eliminated. Partial
surveys over the past 18 years,
including surveys following two strong
hurricanes in 2018, indicate there are
more individuals than known at the
time of listing, and the population
appears to be relatively stable. Surveys
are limited to detections right on the
trails, or a very short distance from the
trails. Habitat that has not or cannot be
surveyed may hold additional
subpopulations; therefore, surveys
likely underestimate the true abundance
of this species. The habitat at El
Yunque, where the species occurs, is a
designated wilderness area, and
managed for its natural conditions;
therefore, habitat modification or
destruction is not a current threat. In
addition, collection is prohibited under
USFS regulations, and there is no
indication this is a current threat to the
species. Persistence of the species
through repeated past strong hurricanes
indicates the species has the ability to
recover and adapt from disturbances.
Furthermore, relocation of individuals
from felled trees further accelerates the
recovery of the species post-hurricane.
While a narrow endemic, the species
has continued to exist across its
historical range with all life stages
represented and in good health. While
projections predict increasing
temperatures and decreasing
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precipitation over time into the future,
projected impacts to the species’ habitat
(e.g., life zone changes) are not expected
to be significant within the foreseeable
future (USFWS 2019, p. 69). Recent, yet
unpublished downscaled climate
modelling (Bowden 2018, pers. comm.)
indicates that higher elevation areas,
like those supporting L. eltoroensis, may
be buffered from the more generally
predicted level of precipitation changes.
This species has also demonstrated the
ability to adapt to changes in its
environment. Since the species was
listed, warming temperatures have been
documented and precipitation levels
have decreased, yet the species has
persisted. Additionally, following strong
hurricanes that affected the species’
habitat, abundance has remained stable,
with all age classes represented and in
good health. While suitable habitat
conditions for the species may contract
some over the foreseeable future, the
species is likely to continue to maintain
close to current levels of resiliency,
redundancy, and representation. We
conclude that there are no existing or
potential threats that, either alone or in
combination with others (i.e., forest
management practices, climate change,
and hurricane damage), are likely to
cause the species’ viability to decline.
Thus, after assessing the best available
data, we conclude that L. eltoroensis is
not in danger of extinction throughout
its range (i.e., meets the definition of an
endangered species) or likely to become
so within the foreseeable future (i.e.,
meets the definition of a threatened
species).
Status Throughout a Significant Portion
of Its Range
Under the Act and our implementing
regulations, a species may warrant
listing if it is in danger of extinction or
likely to become so within the
foreseeable future throughout all or a
significant portion of its range.
Having determined that Lepanthes
eltoroensis is not in danger of extinction
or likely to become so within the
foreseeable future throughout all of its
range, we now consider whether it may
be in danger of extinction or likely to
become so within the foreseeable future
in a significant portion of its range. The
range of a species can theoretically be
divided into portions in an infinite
number of ways, so we first screen the
potential portions of the species’ range
to determine if there are any portions
that warrant further consideration. To
do the ‘‘screening’’ analysis, we ask
whether there are portions of the
species’ range for which there is
substantial information indicating that:
(1) The portion may be significant; and
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(2) the species may be, in that portion,
either in danger of extinction or likely
to become so in the foreseeable future.
For a particular portion, if we cannot
answer both questions in the
affirmative, then that portion does not
warrant further consideration and the
species does not warrant listing because
of its status in that portion of its range.
Conversely, we emphasize that
answering both of these questions in the
affirmative is not a determination that
the species is in danger of extinction or
likely to become so in the foreseeable
future throughout a significant portion
of its range—rather, it is a step in
determining whether a more detailed
analysis of the issue is required.
If we answer these questions in the
affirmative, we then conduct a more
thorough analysis to determine whether
the portion does indeed meet both of the
‘‘significant portion of its range’’ prongs:
(1) The portion is significant; and (2) the
species is, in that portion, either in
danger of extinction or likely to become
so in the foreseeable future.
Confirmation that a portion does indeed
meet one of these prongs does not create
a presumption, prejudgment, or other
determination as to whether the species
is an endangered species or threatened
species. Rather, we must then undertake
a more detailed analysis of the other
prong to make that determination. Only
if the portion does indeed meet both
prongs would the species warrant listing
because of its status in a significant
portion of its range.
We evaluated the range of the
Lepanthes eltoroensis to determine if
any area may be a significant portion of
the range. The species is a narrow
endemic that functions as a single,
contiguous population (with a
metapopulation structure) and occurs
within a very small area (El Yunque,
Puerto Rico). Every threat to the species
in any portion of its range is a threat to
the species throughout all of its range,
and so the species has the same status
under the Act throughout its narrow
range. Therefore, we conclude, based on
this screening analysis, that the species
is not in danger of extinction or likely
to become so in the foreseeable future in
any significant portion of its range. Our
conclusion—that we do not undertake
additional analysis if we determine that
the species has the same status under
the Act throughout its narrow range—is
consistent with the courts’ holdings in
Desert Survivors v. Department of the
Interior, No. 16–cv–01165–JCS, 2018
WL 4053447 (N.D. Cal. Aug. 24, 2018);
Center for Biological Diversity v. Jewell,
248 F. Supp. 3d, 946, 959 (D. Ariz.
2017); and Center for Biological
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Sfmt 4702
13855
Diversity v. Everson, 2020 WL 437289
(D.D.C. Jan. 28, 2020).
Determination of Status
Our review of the best available
scientific and commercial data indicates
that Lepanthes eltoroensis does not meet
the definition of an endangered species
or a threatened species in accordance
with sections 3(6) and 3(20) of the Act.
Therefore, we propose to remove this
species from the Federal List of
Endangered and Threatened Plants.
Effects of This Proposed Rule
This proposal, if made final, would
revise 50 CFR 17.12(h) to remove
Lepanthes eltoroensis from the Federal
List of Endangered and Threatened
Plants. Therefore, revision of the
species’ recovery plan is not necessary.
The prohibitions and conservation
measures provided by the Act,
particularly through sections 7 and 9,
would no longer apply to this species.
Federal agencies would no longer be
required to consult with the Service
under section 7 of the Act in the event
that activities they authorize, fund, or
carry out may affect L. eltoroensis. There
is no critical habitat designated for this
species.
Post-Delisting Monitoring
Section 4(g)(1) of the Act requires us
to monitor for not less than 5 years the
status of all species that are delisted due
to recovery. Post-delisting monitoring
refers to activities undertaken to verify
that a species delisted due to recovery
remains secure from the risk of
extinction after the protections of the
Act no longer apply. The primary goal
of PDM is to monitor the species to
ensure that its status does not
deteriorate, and if a decline is detected,
to take measures to halt the decline so
that proposing it as an endangered or
threatened species is not again needed.
If at any time during the monitoring
period data indicate that protective
status under the Act should be
reinstated, we can initiate listing
procedures, including, if appropriate,
emergency listing. At the conclusion of
the monitoring period, we will review
all available information to determine if
relisting, the continuation of
monitoring, or the termination of
monitoring is appropriate.
Section 4(g) of the Act explicitly
requires that we cooperate with the
States in development and
implementation of PDM programs.
However, we remain ultimately
responsible for compliance with section
4(g) and, therefore, must remain actively
engaged in all phases of PDM. We also
seek active participation of other
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entities that are expected to assume
responsibilities for the species’
conservation after delisting. The Service
is currently coordinating with PRDNER
and USFS on the completion of the
PDM.
We have prepared a draft PDM plan
for the orchid, Lepanthes eltoroensis.
The plan is designed to detect
substantial declines in the species, with
reasonable certainty and precision, or an
increase in threats. The plan:
(1) Summarizes the species’ status at
the time of proposed delisting;
(2) Defines thresholds or triggers for
potential monitoring outcomes and
conclusions;
(3) Lays out frequency and duration of
monitoring;
(4) Articulates monitoring methods,
including sampling considerations;
(5) Outlines data compilation and
reporting procedures and
responsibilities; and
(6) Proposes a PDM implementation
schedule, funding, and responsible
parties.
Concurrent with this proposed
delisting rule, we announce the
availability of the draft PDM plan for
public review at https://
www.regulations.gov under Docket No.
FWS–R4–ES–2019–0073. The plan can
also be viewed in its entirety at https://
www.fws.gov/southeast/caribbean/.
Copies can also be obtained from the
U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service,
Caribbean Ecological Services Field
Office (see FOR FURTHER INFORMATION
CONTACT). We seek information, data,
and comments from the public
regarding Lepanthes eltoroensis and the
PDM plan. We are also seeking peer
review of the draft PDM plan during this
proposed rule’s comment period. We
anticipate finalizing this plan,
considering all public and peer review
comments, prior to making a final
determination on the proposed delisting
rule.
Required Determinations
khammond on DSKJM1Z7X2PROD with PROPOSALS
Clarity of the Rule
We are required by Executive Orders
12866 and 12988 and by the
VerDate Sep<11>2014
17:05 Mar 09, 2020
Jkt 250001
Presidential Memorandum of June 1,
1998, to write all rules in plain
language. This means that each rule we
publish must:
(1) Be logically organized;
(2) Use the active voice to address
readers directly;
(3) Use clear language rather than
jargon;
(4) Be divided into short sections and
sentences; and
(5) Use lists and tables wherever
possible.
If you feel that we have not met these
requirements, send us comments by one
of the methods listed in ADDRESSES. To
better help us revise the rule, your
comments should be as specific as
possible. For example, you should tell
us the numbers of the sections or
paragraphs that are unclearly written,
which sections or sentences are too
long, the sections where you feel lists or
tables would be useful, etc.
National Environmental Policy Act (42
U.S.C. 4321 et seq.)
We determined that we do not need
to prepare an environmental assessment
or an environmental impact statements,
as defined under the authority of the
National Environmental Policy Act of
1969 (42 U.S.C. 4321 et seq.), in
connection with regulations adopted
pursuant to section 4(a) of the
Endangered Species Act. We published
a notice outlining our reasons for this
determination in the Federal Register
October 25, 1983 (48 FR 49244).
Government-to-Government
Relationship With Tribes
In accordance with the President’s
memorandum of April 29, 1994
(Government-to-Government Relations
with Native American Tribal
Governments; 59 FR 22951), Executive
Order 13175 (Consultation and
Coordination With Indian Tribal
Governments), and the Department of
the Interior’s manual at 512 DM 2, we
readily acknowledge our responsibility
to communicate meaningfully with
recognized Federal Tribes on a
government-to-government basis. We
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Sfmt 9990
have determined that there are no tribal
interests affected by this proposal.
References Cited
A complete list of references cited in
this rulemaking is available on the
internet at https://www.regulations.gov
under Docket No. FWS–R4–ES–2019–
0073 and upon request from the
Caribbean Ecological Services Field
Office (see FOR FURTHER INFORMATION
CONTACT).
Authors
The primary authors of this proposed
rule are the staff members of the
Service’s Species Assessment Team and
the Caribbean Ecological Services Field
Office.
List of Subjects in 50 CFR Part 17
Endangered and threatened species,
Exports, Imports, Reporting and
recordkeeping requirements,
Transportation.
Proposed Regulation Promulgation
Accordingly, we propose to amend
part 17, subchapter B of chapter I, title
50 of the Code of Federal Regulations,
as set forth below:
PART 17—ENDANGERED AND
THREATENED WILDLIFE AND PLANTS
1. The authority citation for part 17
continues to read as follows:
■
Authority: 16 U.S.C. 1361–1407; 1531–
1544; and 4201–4245, unless otherwise
noted.
§ 17.12
[Amended]
2. Amend § 17.12(h) by removing the
entry for ‘‘Lepanthes eltoroensis’’ under
FLOWERING PLANTS from the List of
Endangered and Threatened Plants.
■
Dated: January 23, 2020.
Aurelia Skipwith,
Director, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service.
[FR Doc. 2020–04824 Filed 3–9–20; 8:45 am]
BILLING CODE 4333–15–P
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[Federal Register Volume 85, Number 47 (Tuesday, March 10, 2020)]
[Proposed Rules]
[Pages 13844-13856]
From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office [www.gpo.gov]
[FR Doc No: 2020-04824]
[[Page 13844]]
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DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR
Fish and Wildlife Service
50 CFR Part 17
[Docket No. FWS-R4-ES-2019-0073; FXES11130900000-189-FF0932000]
RIN 1018-BB83
Endangered and Threatened Wildlife and Plants; Removing Lepanthes
eltoroensis From the Federal List of Endangered and Threatened Plants
AGENCY: Fish and Wildlife Service, Interior.
ACTION: Proposed rule.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
SUMMARY: We, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, propose to remove
Lepanthes eltoroensis (no common name), an orchid species from Puerto
Rico, from the Federal List of Endangered and Threatened Plants (List)
(i.e., to ``delist'' the species), due to recovery. This proposed
action is based on a thorough review of the best available scientific
and commercial data, which indicates that the threats to the species
have been eliminated or reduced to the point that the species no longer
meets the definition of an endangered or threatened species under the
Endangered Species Act of 1973, as amended (Act). We also announce the
availability of a draft post-delisting monitoring (PDM) plan. We seek
information, data, and comments from the public regarding this proposal
and the draft PDM plan.
DATES: We will accept comments received or postmarked on or before May
11, 2020. Comments submitted electronically using the Federal
eRulemaking Portal (see ADDRESSES, below) must be received by 11:59
p.m. Eastern Time on the closing date. We must receive requests for a
public hearing, in writing, at the address shown in FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION CONTACT by April 24, 2020.
ADDRESSES: Written comments: You may submit comments on this proposed
rule and the draft PDM plan by one of the following methods:
(1) Electronically: Go to the Federal eRulemaking Portal: https://www.regulations.gov. In the Search box, enter FWS-R4-ES-2019-0073,
which is the docket number for this rulemaking. Then, click on the
Search button. On the resulting page, in the Search panel on the left
side of the screen, under the Document Type heading, click on the
Proposed Rule box to locate this document. You may submit a comment by
clicking on ``Comment Now!''
(2) By hard copy: Submit by U.S. mail or hand-delivery to: Public
Comments Processing, Attn: FWS-R4-ES-2019-0073, U.S. Fish and Wildlife
Service, MS: JAO/1N, 5275 Leesburg Pike, Falls Church, VA 22041-3803.
We request that you send comments only by the methods described
above. We will post all comments on https://www.regulations.gov. This
generally means that we will post any personal information you provide
us (see Public Comments, below, for more information).
Document availability: This proposed rule, the draft PDM plan, and
supporting documents (including the species status assessment (SSA)
report and references cited) are available at https://www.regulations.gov under Docket No. FWS-R4-ES-2019-0073 or at the
Caribbean Ecological Services Field Office website at https://www.fws.gov/southeast/caribbean/.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Edwin Mu[ntilde]iz, Field Supervisor,
U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Caribbean Ecological Services Field
Office. Physical address: Road 301, Km. 5.1, Boquer[oacute]n, Puerto
Rico 00622. Mailing address: P.O. Box 49, Boquer[oacute]n, Puerto Rico
00622. Telephone: (787) 851-7297. If you use a telecommunications
device for the deaf (TDD), please call the Federal Relay Service at
(800) 877- 8339 for TTY assistance 24 hours a day, 7 days a week.
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION:
Information Requested
Public Comments
We intend that any final action resulting from this proposed rule
will be based on the best scientific and commercial data available and
be as accurate and as effective as possible. The proposed rule serves
as the notice of initiation and, if finalized, the final determination
fulfills the requirements of a 5-year review. Therefore, we request
comments or information from other concerned governmental agencies, the
scientific community, industry, or any other interested parties
concerning this proposed rule. Because we will consider all comments
and information we receive during the comment period, our final
determination may differ from this proposal. We particularly seek new
information not already included in the species status assessment
report concerning:
(1) Information concerning the biology and ecology of Lepanthes
eltoroensis;
(2) New information on the historical and current status, range,
distribution, and population size of L. eltoroensis;
(3) Relevant data concerning any threats (or lack thereof) to L.
eltoroensis, particularly any data on the possible effects of climate
to this orchid as it relates to habitat;
(4) The extent of protection and management that would be provided
by the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico to L. eltoroensis as a delisted
species;
(5) Current or planned activities within the geographic range of L.
eltoroensis that may negatively impact or benefit the species;
(6) The draft PDM plan and the methods and approach detailed in it;
and
(7) Other relevant information the public believes we have not
considered.
Please include sufficient information with your submission (such as
scientific journal articles or other publications) to allow us to
verify any scientific or commercial information you include. All
comments submitted electronically via https://www.regulations.gov will
be presented on the website in their entirety as submitted. For
comments submitted via hard copy, we will post your entire comment--
including your personal identifying information--on https://www.regulations.gov. You may request at the top of your document that
we withhold personal information such as your street address, phone
number, or email address from public review; however, we cannot
guarantee that we will be able to do so.
Comments and materials we receive, as well as supporting
documentation we used in preparing this proposed rule, will be
available for public inspection on https://www.regulations.gov, or by
appointment, during normal business hours, at the U.S. Fish and
Wildlife Service, Caribbean Ecological Services Field Office (see FOR
FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT).
Please note that submissions merely stating support for, or
opposition to, the action under consideration without providing
supporting information, although noted, will not be considered in
making a determination, as section 4(b)(1)(A) of the Act (16 U.S.C.
1531 et seq.) directs that determinations as to whether any species is
an endangered or threatened species must be made ``solely on the basis
of the best scientific and commercial data available.''
Public Hearing
Section 4(b)(5) of the Act provides for a public hearing on this
proposal, if requested. Requests must be received within 45 days after
the date of publication of this proposed rule in the Federal Register
(see DATES). Such requests must be sent to the address shown in FOR
FURTHER INFORMATION
[[Page 13845]]
CONTACT. We will schedule a public hearing on this proposal, if
requested, and announce the date, time, and place of the hearing, as
well as how to obtain reasonable accommodations, in the Federal
Register and local newspapers at least 15 days before the hearing.
Peer Review
In accordance with our joint policy on peer review published in the
Federal Register on July 1, 1994 (59 FR 34270), and the Service's
August 22, 2016, Director's Memo on the Peer Review Process, we sought
the expert opinions of five appropriate and independent specialists
regarding the species status assessment report for Lepanthes
eltoroensis. These peer reviewers have expertise in L. eltoroensis or
similar epiphytic orchid species' biology or habitat, or climate
change. We received comments from one of the five peer reviewers. The
purpose of peer review is to ensure that our decisions are based on
scientifically sound data, assumptions, and analyses. The peer reviewer
comments will be available along with other public comments in the
docket for this proposed rule.
Species Status Assessment Report
A team of Service biologists, in consultation with other species
experts, prepared a species status assessment (SSA) report for
Lepanthes eltoroensis. The SSA report represents a compilation of the
best scientific and commercial data available concerning the status of
the species, including the impacts of past, present, and future factors
(both negative and beneficial) affecting the species. As stated above,
we solicited independent peer review of the SSA report by five
individuals with expertise in L. eltoroensis or similar epiphytic
orchid species' biology or habitat, or climate change. The final SSA,
which supports this proposed rule, was revised, as appropriate, in
response to the comments and suggestions received from our peer
reviewers. The SSA report and other materials relating to this proposal
can be found on the Service's Southeast Region website at https://www.fws.gov/southeast/ and at https://www.regulations.gov under Docket
No. FWS-R4-ES-2019-0073.
Background
Previous Federal Actions
Lepanthes eltorensis (no common name) was originally recommended
for Federal listing by the Smithsonian Institution (Ayensu and
DeFilipps 1978). In 1980, we included the species among the plants
being considered as endangered or threatened by the Service (45 FR
82480), and subsequently included it in the annual Candidate Notice of
Review from 1983 through 1989, determining that listing L. eltorensis
was warranted but precluded by other pending listing actions of a
higher priority. We published a final rule in the Federal Register
listing L. eltoroensis as an endangered species on November 29, 1991
(56 FR 60933). On July 15, 1996, we published the L. eltoroensis
Recovery Plan (USFWS 1996). We completed a 5-year status review on
August 24, 2015 (USFWS 2015). Although the review did not recommend we
reclassify or delist this orchid, it did indicate that the species was
showing substantial improvement and a reduced level of threats.
Species Information
A thorough review of the taxonomy, life history, and ecology of
Lepanthes eltoroensis is presented in the SSA report (Service 2019,
entire), which is available at https://www.regulations.gov under Docket
No. FWS-R4-ES-2019-0073, and summarized in this proposed rule.
Species Description
Lepanthes eltoroensis is a member of a large genus of more than 800
orchid species. Approximately 118 species in this genus are from the
Caribbean and all but one are single-island endemics (Stimson 1969, p.
332; Barre and Feldmann 1991, p. 11; Tremblay and Ackerman 1993, p.
339; Luer 2014, p. 260). This species is a small, epiphytic orchid
about 1.57 inches (in.) (4 centimeters (cm)) tall and is distinguished
from other members of the genus by its obovate to oblanceolate leaves,
ciliate sepals, and the length of the inflorescence (Vivaldi et al.
1981, p. 26; Luer 2014, p. 260). The inflorescence is a long (0.03 in.;
0.75 millimeters (mm)), peduncled raceme (flower cluster with flowers
on separate short stalks) with reddish flowers. No more than two
flowers are produced at the same time, and the flowers are open on the
inflorescence for about 10 days (Mel[eacute]ndez-Ackerman and Tremblay
2017, p. 1).
Life History
For purposes of the SSA, we considered Lepanthes eltoroensis to be
a single metapopulation, the individual trees that host the L.
eltoroensis plants as subpopulations, and the host tree aggregates as
patches (USFWS 2019, p. 16). A number of characteristics (see below)
suggest that a metapopulation approach may be appropriate to understand
orchid population dynamics (see USFWS 2019, pp. 14-15) and epiphytic
species (Snall et al. 2003, p. 567; Snall et al. 2004, p. 758; Snall et
al. 2005, pp. 209-210), like L. eltoroensis. Metapopulations are
defined as a set of subpopulations with independent local dynamics
occupying discrete patches (Hanski 1999, entire; Hanski and Gaggiotti
2004, pp. 3-22), so that simultaneous extinction of all subpopulations
is unlikely.
Populations of Lepanthes orchids exhibit high variance in
reproductive potential, high variance in mean reproductive lifespan
(Tremblay 2000, pp. 264-265), and few adults per population (Tremblay
1997a, p. 95). Less than 20 percent of individuals reproduce, and most
subpopulations (60 percent of host trees) have fewer than 15
individuals. In addition, the distribution of individuals (seedling,
juvenile, and adults) varies enormously among trees and is skewed
towards few individuals per tree (Tremblay and Velazquez-Castro 2009,
p. 214). The lifespan of L. eltoroensis can reach 30 to 50 years
(Tremblay 1996, pp. 88-89, 114). However, the mean is 5.2 years, with
an average percent mortality of 10 percent per year, although this
varies greatly among life stages. Survival increases as individual
orchids reach later life stages, but fewer plants reach adulthood and
have the opportunity to contribute offspring to the next generation
(Tremblay 2000, p. 265; Rosa-Fuentes and Tremblay 2007, p. 207).
Because distribution of the species is within a protected national
forest, access to moss, dispersal ability, reproductive success, and
lifespan influence survivorship more than other potential human-induced
threats (Tremblay 2000, p. 265; Rosa-Fuentes and Tremblay 2007, p.
207).
The reproductive success of Lepanthes eltoroensis subpopulations is
highly sensitive to temporal variation in environmental conditions
(Tremblay and Hutchings 2002, entire). Further, reproductive success of
L. eltoroensis, as in most orchids, is pollinator-limited (Tremblay et
al. 2005, p. 6). This obligate cross-pollinated species (Tremblay et
al. 2006, p. 78) uses a deceptive pollination system, typically
characterized by very few reproductive events (~ less than 20 percent
chance; Tremblay et al. 2005, p. 12). Although we do not know the
pollinator for L. eltoroensis, elsewhere fungus gnats visit Lepanthes
orchids (Blanco and Barboza 2005, p. 765) and pollinate by
pseudocopulation; therefore, it is likely fungus gnats are a pollinator
for L. eltoroensis. Fungus gnats do not travel far--perhaps tens of
meters or even a few hundred meters (Ackerman 2018)--limiting pollen
dispersal for L.
[[Page 13846]]
eltoroensis. Most L. eltoroensis pollination occurs among individuals
within a host tree, resulting in high inbreeding and low genetic
variability (Tremblay and Ackerman 2001, pp. 55-58). The seeds of L.
eltoroensis are wind-dispersed and require a mycorrhizal association
for germination and survival until plants start photosynthesis
(Tremblay and Ackerman 2001, p. 55; Tremblay 2008, p. 85).
Distribution and Abundance
Lepanthes eltoroensis is endemic to El Yunque National Forest (El
Yunque), Puerto Rico. It is restricted to one general area within the
Sierra Palm, Palo Colorado, and dwarf forests of the El Toro and Trade
Winds trails (USFWS 2015, p. 5) at elevations above 2,461 feet (750
meters) (USFWS 1996, p. 2). At the time of listing, the species
consisted of an estimated 140 individual plants. Since then, surveys
have located additional individuals and subpopulations (groups of L.
etoroensis on the same host tree) resulting in a much greater estimate
of individuals than at the time of listing. Surveys for L. eltoroensis
have been infrequent, sparse, and done with varying spatial spread and
methodology, making the results difficult to compare over time (USFWS
2019, pp. 34-52). However, partial surveys conducted periodically from
2000 to 2018 have found greater numbers of L. eltoroensis (USFWS 2019,
pp. 49-50). In addition, surveys conducted between 2000 and 2005
indicated the subpopulations surveyed along El Toro Trail and Trade
Winds Trail were relatively stable over the 5-year period (USFWS 2019,
p. 39). The best available metapopulation estimate is 3,000 individual
plants (Tremblay 2008, p. 90; USFWS 2015, p. 5). Overall, data
collected for the SSA did not indicate a general pattern of population
decline, but rather natural fluctuations (USFWS 2019, p. 52).
The metapopulation estimate was made prior to Category 5 Hurricane
Maria making landfall on Puerto Rico in 2017. A post-hurricane partial
survey along the El Toro Trail was completed in 2018, and found 641
total plants, including over 300 that had not been previously
identified (Mel[eacute]ndez-Ackerman 2018, pers. comm.). We note that
this was only a partial survey; there has never been a complete census
of the entire metapopulation because most of the areas off the two main
trails (El Toro and Trade Winds) are dangerous and inaccessible.
However, the forest types Lepanthes eltoroensis is most affiliated
with--Palo Colorado, Sierra Palm, and Dwarf Forest--cover over 13,000
acres (ha) within the El Yunque (USFWS 2019, p. 8). Given the amount of
unreachable habitat that has not been surveyed, all estimates are
likely to underestimate the true abundance of the species (USFWS 2019,
p. 50). Surveys of habitat outside traditional population sites (on or
just off trails) could result in discovery of additional plants
(Tremblay 2008, p. 90; USFWS 2019, pp. 18, 50, 73). In addition, since
the time of listing, the species has faced multiple strong hurricanes
(Hugo, Georges, Hortense, Irma, and Maria), and we currently know of
more individuals than at the time of listing, indicating the species'
abundance has remained stable (with all age classes represented and in
good health) despite such events, and the species has the ability to
recover from stochastic disturbances (USFWS 2019, pp. 51-52).
Therefore, although the species and its habitat were harmed by the
recent hurricanes (namely Maria), the previous estimate of 3,000
individual plants is still our best estimate.
Habitat
Lepanthes eltoroensis occurs on moss-covered trunks (i.e., host
trees) within upper elevation cloud forests in the Sierra Palm, Palo
Colorado, and Dwarf Forest associations of El Yunque (Luer 2014, p.
260; Ewel and Whitmore 1973, pp. 41-49), where humidity ranges from 90
to 100 percent, and cloud cover is continuous, particularly during the
evening hours (55 FR 41248; October 10, 1990). Important habitat
components seem to be elevation, adequate temperature and moisture
regimes, open/semi-open gaps in the canopy, and presence of moss.
Regulatory and Analytical Framework
Regulatory Framework
Section 4 of the Act (16 U.S.C. 1533) and its implementing
regulations (50 CFR part 424) set forth the procedures for determining
whether a species is an ``endangered species'' or a ``threatened
species.'' The Act defines an endangered species as a species that is
``in danger of extinction throughout all or a significant portion of
its range,'' and a threatened species as a species that is ``likely to
become an endangered species within the foreseeable future throughout
all or a significant portion of its range.'' The Act requires that we
determine whether any species is an ``endangered species'' or a
``threatened species'' because of any of the following factors:
(A) The present or threatened destruction, modification, or
curtailment of its habitat or range;
(B) Overutilization for commercial, recreational, scientific, or
educational purposes;
(C) Disease or predation;
(D) The inadequacy of existing regulatory mechanisms; or
(E) Other natural or manmade factors affecting its continued
existence.
These factors represent broad categories of natural or human-caused
actions or conditions that could have an effect on a species' continued
existence. In evaluating these actions and conditions, we look for
those that may have a negative effect on individuals of the species, as
well as other actions or conditions that may ameliorate any negative
effects or may have positive effects.
We use the term ``threat'' to refer in general to actions or
conditions that are known to or are reasonably likely to negatively
affect individuals of a species. The term ``threat'' includes actions
or conditions that have a direct impact on individuals (direct
impacts), as well as those that affect individuals through alteration
of their habitat or required resources (stressors). The term ``threat''
may encompass--either together or separately--the source of the action
or condition or the action or condition itself.
However, the mere identification of any threat(s) does not
necessarily mean that the species meets the statutory definition of an
``endangered species'' or a ``threatened species.'' In determining
whether a species meets either definition, we must evaluate all
identified threats by considering the expected response by the species,
and the effects of the threats--in light of those actions and
conditions that will ameliorate the threats--on an individual,
population, and species level. We evaluate each threat and its expected
effects on the species, then analyze the cumulative effect of all of
the threats on the species as a whole. We also consider the cumulative
effect of the threats in light of those actions and conditions that
will have positive effects on the species--such as any existing
regulatory mechanisms or conservation efforts. The Secretary determines
whether the species meets the definition of an ``endangered species''
or a ``threatened species'' only after conducting this cumulative
analysis and describing the expected effect on the species now and in
the foreseeable future.
The Act does not define the term ``foreseeable future,'' which
appears in the statutory definition of ``threatened species.'' Our
implementing regulations at 50 CFR 424.11(d) set forth a framework for
evaluating the foreseeable
[[Page 13847]]
future on a case-by-case basis. The term foreseeable future extends
only so far into the future as the Services can reasonably determine
that both the future threats and the species' responses to those
threats are likely. In other words, the foreseeable future is the
period of time in which we can make reliable predictions. ``Reliable''
does not mean ``certain''; it means sufficient to provide a reasonable
degree of confidence in the prediction. Thus, a prediction is reliable
if it is reasonable to depend on it when making decisions.
It is not always possible or necessary to define foreseeable future
as a particular number of years. Analysis of the foreseeable future
uses the best scientific and commercial data available and should
consider the timeframes applicable to the relevant threats and to the
species' likely responses to those threats in view of its life-history
characteristics. Data that are typically relevant to assessing the
species' biological response include species-specific factors such as
lifespan, reproductive rates or productivity, certain behaviors, and
other demographic factors.
Analytical Framework
We completed a comprehensive assessment of the biological status of
Lepanthes eltoroensis and prepared a report of the assessment (SSA
report), which provides a thorough account of the species' overall
viability using conservation biology principles of resiliency,
redundancy, and representation (collectively, the ``3Rs''). We define
viability here as the ability of the species to persist over the long
term and, conversely, to avoid extinction. We have used the SSA
report's assessment of L. eltoroensis' current and potential future
conditions, based on the factors influencing the species and framed in
the context of the 3Rs, to inform our understanding of risk to the
species and our determination whether L. eltoroensis continues to meet
the definition of an endangered species, whether it meets the
definition of a threatened species, or whether it does not meet the
definition of either an endangered species or a threatened species (see
Determination, below). In this discussion, we summarize the conclusions
of that assessment, which can be accessed at https://www.regulations.gov
under Docket No. FWS-R4-ES-2019-0073.
Lepanthes eltoroensis was listed as an endangered species in 1991,
due to its rarity (Factor E), its restricted distribution (Factor E),
forest management practices (Factor A), impacts from hurricane damage
(Factor E), and collection (Factor B) (56 FR 60933, November 29, 1991,
p. 56 FR 60935). The most important factor affecting L. eltoroensis at
that time was its limited distribution. Additionally, its rarity made
the species vulnerable to impacts from hurricanes, such as unfavorable
microclimatic conditions resulting from numerous canopy gaps. Because
so few individuals were known to occur, the risk of extinction was
considered to be extremely high (56 FR 60933, November 29, 1991, p. 56
FR 60935).
Summary of Biological Status and Threats
In this section, we review the biological condition of the species
and its resources, and the influence to assess the species' overall
viability and the risks to that viability.
Risk Factors for Lepanthes eltoroensis
Forest Management Practices
At the time of listing (1991), El Yunque management practices such
as establishment and maintenance of plantations, selective cutting,
trail maintenance, and shelter construction were considered threats to
Lepanthes eltoroensis (56 FR 60933, November 29, 1991, p. 56 FR 60935).
The Recovery Plan further indicated that destruction and modification
of habitat might be the most significant factors affecting the number
of individuals and distribution of the species (USFWS 1996, p. 5).
Since the species was listed, several laws have been enacted that
provide protections to this species. In 1999, Commonwealth Law No. 241
(New Wildlife Law of Puerto Rico or Nueva Ley de Vida Silvestre de
Puerto Rico) was enacted to protect, conserve, and enhance native and
migratory wildlife species. This law requires authorization from the
Puerto Rico Department of Natural and Environmental Resources (PRDNER)
Secretary for any action that may affect the habitat of any species.
Furthermore, part of El Yunque (including the habitat where Lepanthes
eltoroensis is currently known to occur) was congressionally designated
as the El Toro Wilderness in 2005, to preserve its natural conditions,
including species like L. eltoroensis, inhabiting the area (Caribbean
National Forest Act of 2005 (Pub. L. 109-118); the Wilderness Act (16
U.S.C. 1131 et seq.); U.S. Forest Service (USFS) 2016, p. 32). The El
Toro Wilderness consists of undeveloped USFS lands and is managed to
preserve its natural conditions without any permanent improvements or
human habitation (USFS 2016, p. 32). All known populations of L.
eltoroensis occur within this wilderness area.
Scientists who have conducted research on Lepanthes eltoroensis do
not consider destruction, curtailment, or modification of this species'
habitat to be a factor threatening this species (Ackerman 2007, pers.
comm.). In 2019, the USFS finalized a revised land and resources
management plan to guide the general direction of El Yunque for the
next 15 years. This plan specifically includes a set of standards and
guidelines to protect the natural resources within the El Toro
Wilderness, including listed species. Standards specific to the El Toro
Wilderness include no salvaging of timber, no issuing permits for
collection of plants or plant material unless for a scientific purpose,
no new special-use permits for facilities or occupancy, managing
recreation to minimize the number of people on the trails, and no
construction of new trails (USFS 2019, pp. 1, 32-35). Standards and
guidelines for at-risk (including listed) species detailed in the plan
include not allowing collection of orchids unless approved for
scientific purposes and making sure forest management activities are
consistent with recovery plans (USFS 2019, p. 62). Implementation of
management practices in El Yunque has also improved; there is no
selective cutting, and maintenance is minimal as both El Toro and Trade
Winds trails receive few visitors. Mostly researchers and forest
personnel use El Toro and Trade Winds trails; therefore, few human
encounters are expected (USFS 2016, p. 32). Additionally, the USFS
coordinates with the Service to avoid or minimize impacts to a number
of other federally listed species (e.g., Elfin-woods warbler, Ilex
sintenisii) that co-occur within the same areas a L. eltoroensis as
part of their management practices in accordance with section 7 of the
Act.
There is no evidence suggesting current forest management practices
are negatively affecting the species or its specialized habitat
(adequate temperature and moisture regimes, and presence of moss)
(USFWS 2019, p. 24). Furthermore, based on existing laws, we expect El
Yunque will remain permanently protected as a nature reserve and be
managed for conservation. Therefore, we no longer consider forest
management practices or destruction and modification of habitat to be
threats to the species.
Hurricanes
The extremely restricted distribution of Lepanthes eltoroensis
makes it particularly vulnerable to large-scale
[[Page 13848]]
disturbances, such as hurricanes and tropical storms, which frequently
affect islands of the Caribbean (NOAA 2018, unpaginated). Due to its
geographic location, hurricanes are more frequent in the northeastern
quadrant of Puerto Rico, where El Yunque is located (White et al. 2014,
p. 30). Current global climate models are rather poor in simulating
tropical cyclones; however, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change's climate simulations suggest that the Caribbean will experience
a decrease in tropical cyclone frequency, but an increase in the
frequency of the most intense events (PRCC 2013, p. 10; USFWS 2019, p.
56).
Cloud forests, where this species occurs, are much taller than
other vegetation and are higher in elevation, making them more exposed
and more easily affected by high winds and in need of more time to
recover post-disturbance (Hu and Smith 2018, p. 827). Heavy rains and
winds associated with tropical storms and hurricanes cause tree
defoliation, habitat modification due to falling of trees, and
landslides (Lugo 2008, p. 368). Surveys conducted along El Toro Trail
following Hurricane Maria in 2018 focused on assessing the impacts to
the species and its host trees (subpopulations). Nineteen host trees
were not found and assumed to be lost due to the hurricane. An
additional nine host trees were found knocked down. In total, 641
plants, including seedlings, juveniles, and reproductive and non-
reproductive adults, were found; 322 were found on previously marked
host trees (including 191 individuals on those host trees that were
knocked to the ground), and 319 were new individuals not previously
surveyed (Melendez-Ackerman 2018, pers. comm.). Given that Lepanthes
eltoroensis does not persist on felled or dead trees (Ben[iacute]tez
and Tremblay 2003, pp. 67-69), we assume many of these 191 individuals
(approximately 30 percent of individuals found) will not survive,
resulting in the loss of those individuals from the metapopulation.
However, based on previous efforts, we know individual plants can be
moved to new host trees and do quite well, highlighting the feasibility
of relocation to increase the species' long-term viability in the
context of severe hurricanes such as Hurricane Maria. University of
Puerto Rico researchers translocated some of these 191 individuals, but
because the translocations occurred months after the hurricane, we do
not expect survival to be as high as if it had occurred immediately
after the hurricane. Furthermore, this species has persisted from past
hurricane events without active management of translocating species
from felled host trees.
In addition, associated microclimate changes resulting from downed
trees and landslides after severe storms (e.g., increased light
exposure, reduction in relative humidity) may negatively affect the
growth rate of Lepanthes eltoroensis populations (Tremblay 2008, pp.
89-90). Following Hurricane Georges in 1998, non-transplanted
populations of L. eltoroensis had negative growth rates, while groups
of plants that were transplanted to better habitats within the forest
had positive growth rates (Benitez-Joubert and Tremblay 2003, pp. 67-
69). Furthermore, based on data on related species, L. eltoroensis
growth rates may be negatively affected by excess light from gaps
caused by felled trees during hurricanes (Fernandez et al. 2003, p.
76).
The inherently low redundancy (the ability of a species to
withstand catastrophic events) of Lepanthes eltoroensis due to its
limited range makes hurricanes and tropical storms a primary risk
factor. However, given the observed stable trend from past surveys and
recent partial surveys in 2018 (USFWS 2019, pp. 39, 45-48), it appears
that the species has the ability to recover from normal stochastic
disturbances (USFWS 2019, pp. 51-52). Additionally, relocation has
proven to be a viable conservation strategy for this species
(Ben[iacute]tez and Tremblay 2003, pp. 67-69). Relocating plants from
fallen trees to standing trees following hurricane events results in
higher survival of those transplanted individuals. This management
strategy can improve and maximize species' survival and reproductive
success after hurricane events (Ben[iacute]tez and Tremblay 2003, pp.
67-69; Tremblay 2008, pp. 83-90). Following this recommendation, after
Hurricane Maria, researchers from the University of Puerto Rico
translocated some L. eltoroensis individuals along the El Toro trail.
These individuals are currently being monitored to assess survival. In
addition, since L. elotoroensis is part of the USDA Forest Service's
``Plant Species of Conservation Interest of El Yunque'' (USFS 2018, p.
37) and is included in the 2016 revised Land and Resource Management
Plan that details a management concept focused on conservation,
particularly to protect unique ecological resources (USFS 2016, p.1),
the USFS will continue to implement conservation actions, such as
habitat protection, enhancement, and relocation of L. eltoroensis
individuals following hurricanes as deemed necessary.
Collection
Collection for commercial or recreational purposes eliminated one
population of Lepanthes eltoroensis prior to listing under the Act (56
FR 60933; November 29, 1991). The rarity of the species made the loss
of even a few individuals a critical loss to the species as a whole.
The USFS regulations in title 36 of the Code of Federal Regulations
at part 261, section 261.9 (36 CFR 261.9) prohibit collection of listed
plant species in wilderness areas. Additionally, since the species was
listed under the Act in 1991, other laws have been enacted that provide
protections to the species from collection or removal. Commonwealth Law
No. 241 (New Wildlife Law of Puerto Rico or Nueva Ley de Vida Silvestre
de Puerto Rico), enacted in 1999, protects, conserves, and enhances
native and migratory wildlife species. Specifically, Article 5 of this
law prohibits collection and hunting of wildlife species, including
plants within the jurisdiction of Puerto Rico without a permit from the
PRDNER Secretary. In 2004, Lepanthes eltoroensis was included in the
list of protected species of Regulation 6766 (Reglamento 6766 para
Regir el Manejo de las Especies Vulnerables y en Peligro de
Extinci[oacute]n en el Estado Libre Asociado de Puerto Rico), which
governs the management of endangered and threatened species within the
Commonwealth of Puerto Rico. Article 2.06 of this regulation prohibits
collecting, cutting, and removing, among other activities, listed plant
individuals within the jurisdiction of Puerto Rico. L. eltoroensis will
likely remain protected under Commonwealth laws and regulations even
after it is delisted from the ESA. Commonwealth Regulation 6766
provides protection to species that are not federally listed or that
have been removed from the ESA, and the species will remain protected
under the Wilderness provisions from the 2016 revised Land and Resource
Management Plan for El Yunque (USFS 2016, entire). According to this
plan, any influences by humans on the natural process that take place
in the wilderness area will be to protect threatened and endangered
species in addition to human life (USFS 2016, p. 33). As such, the
standards of the plan include conducting wildlife and plant habitat/
population surveys and monitoring in a manner compatible with the goals
and objectives of wilderness (USFS 2016, p. 34). Additional protection
measures include not issuing forest product permits for collection of
plants or plant material in wilderness areas (unless for scientific and
[[Page 13849]]
educational purposes and approved by the forest biologist/ecologist),
and management strategies to design, construct, and maintain trails to
the appropriate trail standard in order to meet wilderness standards
protections (USFS 2016, p. 34).
Despite the one documented instance of collection, the threat of
collection is low, given that few people venture into the El Toro
Wilderness (Tremblay 2007, pers. comm.) and that the small size (less
than 2 in. (4 cm) tall) and inconspicuousness of this species makes it
easy to overlook (Ackerman 2007, pers. comm.; Tremblay 2007, pers.
comm.). Additionally, this species is not used for commercial or
recreational purposes and is not considered to have ornamental value
(USFWS 2015, p. 8). Thus, there is no evidence that collection is
currently impacting Lepanthes eltoroensis (USFWS 2019, p. 24) or likely
to do so in the future.
Small Population Size and Low Reproduction
The smaller the population, the greater the probability that
fluctuations in population size from stochastic variation (e.g.,
reproduction and mortality) will lead to extirpation. There are also
genetic concerns with small populations, including reduced availability
of compatible mates, genetic drift, and inbreeding depression. Small
subpopulations of Lepanthes eltoroensis are particularly vulnerable to
stochastic events, thus contributing to lower species' viability (USFWS
2019, p. 24).
Lepanthes eltoroensis may experience declining growth related to
the distribution of individuals among host trees and demographic
processes (e.g., reproductive success, survival), which can be
negatively influenced by environmental and catastrophic risks (USFWS
2019, p. 25). Fruit production is limited; therefore, opportunities for
establishment are limited. Less than 20 percent of individuals
reproduce, and most subpopulations (60 percent of host trees) have
fewer than 15 individuals. In addition, the distribution of individuals
(seedling, juvenile, and adults) varies enormously among trees and is
skewed towards few individuals per tree (Tremblay and Velazquez-Castro
2009, p. 214). Despite small subpopulations of L. eltoroensis with
limited distribution and naturally limited fruit production, this
species has continued to persist even after regular exposure to
disturbances. In addition, we now estimate the species population to be
3,000 individuals, which is a significant increase from the 140
individuals known at the time of listing. Therefore, the species'
vulnerability to extinction is reduced.
Genetic Risks
The main genetic risk factor for the species is low genetic
variability. The effective population size (number of individuals in a
population who contribute offspring to the next generation) ranges from
3 to 9 percent of the standing population (number of individuals in a
population) (Tremblay and Ackerman 2001, entire). In other words, for
every 100 adults, maybe 9 will transfer genes to the next generation.
In addition, although Lepanthes eltoroensis can survive for up to 50
years, most seedlings and juveniles die (Tremblay 2000, p. 264).
Therefore, very few individuals are responsible for the majority of
seed production, decreasing the genetic diversity as a whole in
subpopulations (Mel[eacute]ndez-Ackerman and Tremblay 2017, pp. 5-6).
There is evidence for low gene flow in the species. Estimated gene
flow in Lepanthes eltoroensis is less than two effective migrants per
generation (the effective generation of the orchid) (Tremblay and
Ackerman 2001, p. 54). This implies that most mating is among
individuals within a host tree, potentially resulting in high
inbreeding, low genetic variability, and inbreeding depression
(Tremblay and Ackerman 2001, pp. 55-58). Low genetic diversity may be
reflected in reduced genetic and environmental plasticity, and thus,
low ability to adapt to environmental changes. If there are high rates
of inbreeding, this could lead to inbreeding depression, and could have
profound long-term negative impacts to the viability of the species
(USFWS 2019, pp. 28-29). However, the species is likely an obligate
cross-pollinated species (Tremblay et al. 2006, p. 78), which is a
mechanism to reduce inbreeding. Additionally, this species has
demonstrated the ability to adapt to changing environmental conditions
(i.e., natural disturbances) over time (USFWS 2019, p. 54).
Effects of Climate Change
The average temperatures at El Yunque have increased over the past
30 years (Jennings et al. 2014, p. 4; Khalyani et al. 2016, p. 277).
Climate projections indicate a 4.6 to 9 degrees Celsius ([deg]C) (8.2
to 16.2 degrees Fahrenheit ([deg]F)) temperature increase for Puerto
Rico from 1960-2099 (Khalyani et al. 2016, p. 275). Additionally,
projections indicate a decrease in precipitation and acceleration of
the hydrological cycles resulting in wet and dry extremes (Jennings et
al. 2014, p. 4; Cashman et al. 2010, pp. 52-54). In one downscaled
model, precipitation is projected to decrease faster in wetter regions
like the Luquillo Mountains, where El Yunque is located, and the
central mountains of Puerto Rico (Khalyani et al. 2016, p. 274). In
contrast, ongoing research suggests higher elevations may have a
buffering effect on declining trends in precipitation (Bowden 2018,
pers. comm.; USFWS 2019, pp.65-66). Downscaled modeling for Puerto Rico
was based on three Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change global
emissions scenarios from the CMIP3 data set: mid-high (A2), mid-low
(A1B), and low (B2) (Khalyani et al. 2016, p. 267). Under all of these
scenarios, emissions increase, precipitation declines, temperature and
total dry days increase, and subtropical rain and wet forests are lost,
while all wet and moist forest types decrease in Puerto Rico; the
differences in the scenarios depends on the extent of these changes and
the timing of when they are predicted to occur (USFWS 2019, p.67).
The most important potential risk to Lepanthes eltoroensis is the
projected shift of the life zones of Puerto Rico from humid to drier.
This includes changes in relative area and distribution pattern of the
life zones, and the disappearance of humid life zones (Khalyani et al.
2016, p. 275). Decreased rainfall in northeastern Puerto Rico (i.e., El
Yunque) can cause migration, distribution changes, and potential
extirpation of many species that depend on the unique environmental
conditions of the rain forest (Weaver and Gould 2013, p. 62). These
projections may have direct implications for L. eltoroensis because the
acreage of the lower montane wet forest life zone it occupies could
decrease, resulting in less habitat available for the species.
Epiphytes like L. eltoroensis could experience moisture stress due to
higher temperatures and less cloud cover with a rising cloud base,
affecting their growth and flowering (Nadkarni and Solano 2002, p.
584). Due to its specialized ecological requirements and restricted
distributions within the dwarf forest, L. eltoroensis could be more
adversely impacted by the effects of climate change than other species
with wider distribution (e.g., lower elevation species) and greater
plasticity, thus, reducing its viability. Predictions of life zone
changes are not expected to affect resiliency of L. eltoroensis until
after mid-century, and predictions out to 2100 vary in severity of
impact (USFWS 2019, p.69).
Another potential risk to Lepanthes eltoroensis is the increase in
[[Page 13850]]
catastrophic hurricanes resulting from climate change. The persistence
of L. eltoroensis through repeated past hurricanes and other storms
suggests it has the ability to recover and adapt from disturbances, and
relocation of individuals from blown-down host trees further
accelerates the recovery of the species post-hurricane (USFWS 2019, p.
73). In fact, ongoing monitoring show an initial positive population
growth rate of L. eltoroensis despite the loss of host trees following
hurricane Mar[iacute]a (Melendez-Ackerman 2019, pers. comm.).
Overall we anticipate the range of Lepanthes eltoroensis to
contract due to changes in climatic variables leading to loss of wet
and tropical montane habitats, potentially exacerbated by an increase
in the frequency and severity of hurricanes by the end of the century
(2100). However, surveys outside of the areas where the species is
traditionally searched, along with an associated habitat model, would
help better predict the future viability of L. eltoroensis (USFWS 2019,
p. 73). Although changes to precipitation and drought, temperature, and
life zones are expected to occur on Puerto Rico, over the next 20 to 30
years they are not predicted to be substantial. Modeling shows dramatic
changes to Puerto Rico through 2100, the divergence in these
projections increases dramatically after mid-century, making
projections beyond 20 to 30 years more uncertain (Khalyani et al. 2016,
p. 275). Moreover, L. eltoroensis is found in a protected area where
synergistically damaging forest management practices are unlikely to
occur, and there is the requirement for implementation of conservation
management practices to mitigate negative impacts such as those caused
by hurricanes.
Summary of Current Condition
Viability is defined as the ability of the species to sustain
populations in the wild over time. To assess the viability of Lepanthes
eltoroensis, we used the three conservation biology principles of
resiliency, representation, and redundancy (Shaffer and Stein 2000, pp.
306-310). Briefly, resiliency supports the ability of the species to
withstand environmental and demographic stochasticity (for example, wet
or dry, warm or cold years); representation supports the ability of the
species to adapt over time to long-term changes in the environment (for
example, climate changes); and redundancy supports the ability of the
species to withstand catastrophic events (for example, droughts,
hurricanes). In general, the more redundant and resilient a species is
and the more representation it has, the more likely it is to sustain
populations over time, even under changing environmental conditions.
Resiliency
Factors that influence the resiliency of Lepanthes eltoroensis
include abundance and growth trends within host trees, and habitat
factors such as elevation, slope, aspect, precipitation, temperature,
canopy cover, and presence of moss, mycorrhizal fungi, and pollinators.
Influencing those factors are elements of L. eltoroensis' ecology that
determine whether populations can grow to maximize habitat occupancy,
thereby increasing resiliency. Stochastic factors that have the
potential to affect L. eltoroensis include impacts to its habitat from
hurricanes and effects of climate change (i.e., changes in temperature
and precipitation regimes). Beneficial factors that influence
resiliency include the protected status of the species' habitat, as the
known range of the species is entirely within the El Toro Wilderness
and therefore protected from human-induced habitat loss and collection.
The best available surveys of Lepanthes eltoroensis found that the
number of individuals is greater than at the time of listing (Tremblay
2008, p. 90), approximately 3,000 individual plants. The distribution
of L. eltoroensis has not been investigated outside of traditional
areas (i.e., just off El Toro and Trade Wind Trails); however, some
researchers suggest that additional populations may occur within
suitable habitat outside El Toro Trail. In fact, additional individuals
have been found near, but outside El Toro Trail (Tremblay 2008, p. 90).
Assuming a metapopulation size of 3,000 individuals, and observed
stable subpopulations from past surveys (including recent partial
surveys in 2018), this suggests the species has the ability to recover
from normal stochastic disturbances; thus, we consider the species to
be moderately resilient.
Representation
We lack genetic and ecological diversity data to characterize
representation for Lepanthes eltoroensis. In the absence of species-
specific genetic and ecological diversity information, we typically
evaluate representation based on the extent and variability of habitat
characteristics across the geographical range. Because the species does
not appear to have much physiological flexibility, given that it has a
rather restricted distribution (cloud forests on ridges),
representative units were not delineated for this species. Available
data suggest that conditions are present for genetic drift and
inbreeding (Tremblay 1997a, p. 92). However, the effect of a genetic
drift on the species into the future is uncertain, and the most updated
L. eltoroensis information shows that the species has the ability to
adapt to changing environmental conditions (i.e., natural disturbances)
over time. Furthermore, some of the factors that we concluded would
reduce representation at the time of listing, such as habitat
destruction and collection, are no longer acting as stressors upon the
species. Finally, because the population is significantly larger than
was known at the time of listing, representation has improved.
Redundancy
Redundancy for Lepanthes eltoroensis is the total number and
resilience of subpopulations and their distribution across the species'
range. This species is endemic to El Yunque, and it has not been
introduced elsewhere. Despite the presence of multiple subpopulations
(i.e., host trees), these subpopulations are located within a narrow/
restricted range at El Toro Wilderness Area and are all exposed to
similar specific habitat and environmental conditions. Population
surveys by Mel[eacute]ndez-Ackerman et al. (2018) accounted for at
least 61 host trees or subpopulations prior to hurricane Maria. Of
these, Mel[eacute]ndez-Ackerman et al. (2018) were not able to locate
19 host trees following the hurricane, and studies are ongoing to
determine the species response from the disturbance. Although
redundancy is inherently low due to the narrow range the species
inhabits, it has persisted despite past natural disturbances (i.e.,
hurricanes, tropical storms, etc.), and is considered more abundant
within its habitat than previously documented.
Projected Future Status
Lepanthes eltoroensis only occurs within the protected El Yunque
lands where stressors--including forest management practices, urban
development surrounding El Yunque, and overcollection--are not expected
to be present or are expected to remain relatively stable and unlikely
to affect the species in the future. Because L. eltoroensis occurs on
protected lands managed by the USFS, it will benefit from their ongoing
conservation practices, which include the relocation of plants from
fallen host trees after a hurricane as deemed necessary, to alleviate
the negative impacts of these storm events. The effect of genetic drift
on the species into the future is uncertain, but L. eltoroensis has
thus far
[[Page 13851]]
demonstrated the ability to adapt to changing environmental conditions
(i.e., natural disturbances) over time (USFWS 2019, pp. 51-52). The
primary stressor affecting the future condition of L. eltoroensis is
current and ongoing climate change stressors (Mel[eacute]ndez-Ackerman
and Tremblay 2017, p. 1) and the associated shifts in rainfall,
temperature, and storm intensities. These stressors account for
indirect and direct effects at some level to all life stages and across
the species' range.
All of these climate change stressors are predicted to result in
shifts in the distribution of life zones present on Puerto Rico, with
some of the most dramatic impacts predicted to occur in the latter half
of the century in the tropical and subtropical wet forests in which the
species resides (USFWS 2019, p. 57). Key life-history factors that make
this species vulnerable to climate change stressors are its restricted
range within the tropical and subtropical wet forests within El Yunque
and low subpopulation sizes (USFWS 2015, pp. 7-10). Given the
relatively low genetic and environmental plasticity of the species, it
potentially does not have the capacity to adapt to these predicted
conditions (USFWS 2019, p. 52).
To examine the potential future condition of Lepanthes eltoroensis,
we used three future scenarios based on climate change predictions for
Puerto Rico (Khalyani et al. 2016, entire), which used global emission
scenarios (mid-high (A2), mid-low (A1B), and low (B1) (Nakicenovic and
Swart 2000, entire)) to capture a range of possible scenarios. Our
assessment of future viability includes qualitative descriptions of the
likely impacts of climate change under the above three scenarios from
the literature, and is intended to capture the uncertainty in the
species' response to climate stressors, and the lack of information on
abundance and growth rates.
Climate Change Predictions
Projections out to the year 2100 predict increases in temperature
and decreases in precipitation, particularly in wetter regions like El
Yunque (Khalyani et al. 2016, pp. 274-275). However, divergence in
temperature and precipitation projections increases dramatically after
mid-century, depending on the scenario (Khalyani et al. 2016, p. 275;
USFWS 2019, pp. 59-62), making projections beyond 20 to 30 years
uncertain. Given the average lifespan of the species (approximately 5
years), a period of 20 to 30 years allows for multiple generations and
detection of any population changes. Additionally, the species has been
listed for close to 30 years, so we have a baseline to understand how
populations have performed in that period. Therefore, the ``foreseeable
future'' used in this determination is 20 to 30 years.
Precipitation and Drought
In general, projections show similar patterns of changes in
precipitation and drought intensity and extremes, although total
changes were greater for the A2 scenario (Khalyani et al. 2016, pp.
272-273, 274; USFWS 2019, pp. 59-60). Under scenarios A2, A1B, and B1,
annual precipitation is projected to decrease by 510 to 916 millimeters
(mm) (20 to 36 in.), 354 to 842 mm (14 to 33 in.), and 312 to 619 mm
(12 to 24 in.), respectively, by 2100. Current annual precipitation in
Puerto Rico averages 745 to 4,346 mm (29 to 171 in.). However,
differences in precipitation between the three scenarios were greater
after the mid-century (Khalyani et al. 2016, p. 274). Before then
decreases in rainfall are expected to be far less; rainfall decreases
are expected to be 0.0012 to 0.0032 mm per day per year through 2050
(PRCC 2013, p. 7). Additionally, for all three climate scenarios,
significant decreases in precipitation for the northern wet forests are
not predicted until after 2040 (USFWS 2019, p. 60). Furthermore, the
U.S. Geological Survey projection for Puerto Rico predicts an overall
drying of the island and a reduction in extreme rainfall occurrence;
however, this model suggests higher elevations, like those supporting
L. eltoroensis, may have a buffering effect on declining trends in
precipitation (Bowden 2018, pers. comm.). Therefore, precipitation
declines are not likely to occur in the area supporting L. eltoroensis
during the foreseeable future. On the other hand, drought intensity
increased steadily under all three scenarios, but with a gradual
increase in drought extremes (Khalyani et al. 2016, pp. 274-275). This
increase is linear for all three scenarios.
Temperature
By 2100, all three scenarios predict increases in temperature with
increases of 7.5-9.0 [deg]C (13.5-16.2 [deg]F), 6.4-7.6 [deg]C (11.5-
13.4 [deg]F), and 4.6-5.4 [deg]C (8.3-9.7 [deg]F) under the A2, A1B,
and B1 scenarios, respectively (Khalyani et al. 2016, p. 275). However,
like with precipitation, projected increases in temperature are not
substantial until after 2040. Projections show only a 0.8 [deg]C (1.4
[deg]F) increase by mid-century under all three scenarios. These
scenarios differentiate the most from each other in later time
intervals (after 2040) (Khalyani et al. 2016, pp. 275, 277). However,
we are not aware of any information that would indicate these air
temperature increases will influence formation of the cloud cover over
El Yunque, which could in turn impact interior temperatures and
humidity of the forest, where Lepanthes eltoroensis is found.
Life Zones
Dramatic changes are projected in the life zone distributions in
Puerto Rico, although the changes vary by life zone and are predicted
to be much more significant after mid-century. Because life zones are
derived from climate variables (e.g., precipitation and temperature),
general changes in life zone distribution are similar to changes in
climatic variables. For example, annual precipitation changes will
result in shifts from rain, wet and moist zones to drier zones
(Khalyani et al. 2016, p. 275), and changes in temperature will result
in changes from subtropical to tropical. In general, decreasing trends
were observed in the areas of wet and moist zones, while increasing
trends were observed in dry zones under all three scenarios (Khalyani
et al. 2016, pp. 275, 279). Under all scenarios, loss of subtropical
rain and wet forests are observed, although decreasing trends were
observed in the area of wet and moist zones, while increasing trends
were observed in the areas of dry zones in all three scenarios.
Additionally, the loss of wet and moist zones in the northeastern
mountain area that supports Lepanthes eltoroensis is not predicted to
be substantial, and the area remains relatively stable until after 2040
(USFWS 2019 p. 69). This may be due to possible buffering effects of
elevation across the island.
In summary, changes to precipitation and drought, temperature, and
life zones are expected to occur on Puerto Rico, but over the next 20
to 30 years, they are not predicted to be substantial. Although
modeling shows changes to Puerto Rico through 2100, the divergence in
these projections increases dramatically after mid-century, making
projections beyond 20 to 30 years more uncertain.
These projected changes may have direct or at least indirect
effects on Lepanthes eltoroensis; however, viability of the species
under all scenarios is expected to remain stable within the foreseeable
future (USFWS 2019, p. 71). Potential direct effects include a reduced
number of seedlings as the number of dry days increase, a reduced
number of fruits as minimum average temperature increases, and a
reduced number of adults as maximum temperature increases (Olaya-Arenas
et
[[Page 13852]]
al. 2011, p. 2042). Additionally, projected changes in hurricane
frequencies (and associated habitat changes) may negatively affect the
growth rate of L. eltoroensis populations (Tremblay 2008, pp. 89-90)
due to increases in light penetration from defoliation. Indirect
effects are related to potential changes in moss cover and composition
due to temperature and precipitation changes. Data from related species
showed that orchid density, growth, and establishment were positively
associated with moss species richness (Crain 2012, pp. 15-16; Garcia-
Cancel et al. 2013, p. 6). Therefore, a change in forest temperature
and humidity could affect the establishment and distribution of moss
and, thus, L. eltoroensis (USFWS 2019, p. 11).
Persistence of the species through repeated past hurricanes and
other storms suggests the species has the ability to recover and adapt
from disturbances, and relocation of individuals from blown-down host
trees further accelerates the recovery of the species post-hurricane.
In fact, many researchers at El Yunque have concluded that hurricanes
are the main organizing force of the forests (USFWS 2019, p. 71). The
forests go through a cycle that averages 60 years, starting with great
impact by winds and rain of a hurricane, and then 60 years of regrowth
(Lugo 2008, p. 371). In those 60 years of regrowth, complete changes in
the species that dominate the landscape can occur. Although the
hurricane appears destructive, it can be constructive because it makes
the area more productive--it rejuvenates the forest (USFWS 2019, p.
71). Currently, El Yunque is at the initial phase of early succession
following Hurricane Maria (2017), which produced severe tree mortality
and defoliation, including Lepanthes eltoroensis host trees.
In general, we anticipate the range of the species may contract
somewhat due to changes in climatic variables, although the loss of wet
and moist zones in the northeastern mountain area that supports
Lepanthes eltoroensis is not predicted to be substantial by mid-century
(USFWS 2019, p. 66). The range contraction may be exacerbated by an
increase in the frequency and severity of hurricanes. However, as the
species occurs within El Yunque, synergistic negative effects of
development and deleterious forest management practices are unlikely
threats to the species in the future. Currently, L. eltoroensis and its
habitat at the El Yunque are protected by Congressional designation of
El Toro Wilderness Area (Forest Plan 2016, p. 32), thus precluding
human disturbance. Because the El Yunque management plan includes a set
of standards and guidelines to protect the natural resources within the
El Toro Wilderness, including other co-occurring federally listed
species (e.g., Ilex sintenisii and Ternstroemia luquillensis) (USFS
2019, pp. 1, 32-35), the Service anticipates continued implementation
of conservation and management practices to improve the habitat of all
species within the area, including actions to mitigate hurricane
impacts.
Future Viability
Resiliency
Under all future scenarios, resiliency is projected to remain
moderate through at least the next 20 to 30 years. As mentioned above,
there is very little projected contraction of the wet and moist forests
within this timeframe. Although increasing catastrophic hurricanes are
possible, relocation of plants can ameliorate some of these impacts.
Redundancy
Redundancy is expected to remain stable under all scenarios for the
next 20 to 30 years, although this prediction is uncertain given the
very limited range of the species and the lack of knowledge about the
full extent of the species' range (i.e., no surveys conducted off the
two main trails). However, Lepanthes eltoroensis has persisted through
catastrophic events in the past, and we expect it to persist into the
foreseeable future.
Representation
Because the species does not appear to have much physiological
flexibility, given that it has a rather restricted distribution,
representative units were not delineated for this species. The current
condition of low genetic and environmental diversity, and little
breadth to rely on if some plants are lost, is expected to continue
under all scenarios, at least through the next 20 to 30 years.
Available data suggest that conditions are present for genetic drift
and inbreeding. However, Lepanthes eltoroensis has demonstrated the
ability to adapt to changing environmental conditions (i.e., natural
disturbances) over time.
Recovery and Recovery Plan Implementation
Section 4(f) of the Act directs us to develop and implement
recovery plans for the conservation and survival of endangered and
threatened species unless we determine that such a plan will not
promote the conservation of the species. Recovery plans are not
regulatory documents. Rather, they are intended to establish goals for
long-term conservation of a listed species and define criteria that are
designed to indicate when the threats facing a species have been
removed or reduced to such an extent that the species may no longer
need the protections of the Act. Recovery plans also provide guidance
to our Federal, State, and other governmental and nongovernmental
partners on methods to minimize threats to listed species.
There are many paths to accomplishing recovery of a species, and
recovery may be achieved without all criteria being fully met. For
example, one or more criteria may have been exceeded while other
criteria may not have been accomplished or become obsolete, yet the
Service may judge that, overall, the threats have been minimized
sufficiently, and the species is robust enough, to reclassify the
species from endangered to threatened or perhaps delist the species. In
other cases, recovery opportunities may be recognized that were not
known at the time the recovery plan was finalized. These opportunities
may be used instead of methods identified in the recovery plan.
Likewise, information on the species that was not known at the time
the recovery plan was finalized may become available. The new
information may change the extent that criteria need to be met for
recognizing recovery of the species. Recovery of species is a dynamic
process requiring adaptive management that may, or may not, fully
follow the guidance provided in a recovery plan.
The following discussion provides a brief review of recovery
planning and implementation for Lepanthes eltoroensis, as well as an
analysis of the recovery criteria and goals as they relate to
evaluating the status of this orchid.
The Lepanthes eltoroensis Recovery Plan was approved on July 15,
1996. The objective of the Recovery Plan is to provide direction for
reversing the decline of this orchid and for restoring the species to a
self-sustaining status, thereby permitting eventual removal from the
Federal List of Endangered and Threatened Plants (USFWS 1996, p. 8).
However, the Recovery Plan provides only criteria for reclassifying the
species from endangered to threatened (``downlisting''). The specific
criteria are: (1) Prepare and implement an agreement between the
Service and the USFS concerning the protection of L. eltoroensis within
El Yunque, and (2) establish new populations capable of self-
perpetuation within protected areas (USFWS 1996, p. 8). The plan also
[[Page 13853]]
includes the following recovery actions intended to address threats to
the species:
(1) Prevent further habitat loss and population decline;
(2) Continue to gather information on the species' distribution and
abundance;
(3) Conduct research;
(4) Establish new populations; and
(5) Refine recovery criteria.
The following discussion provides specific details for each of
these actions and the extent to which the recovery criteria have been
met.
Recovery Action 1: Prevent Further Habitat Loss and Population Decline
This action has been met. In the past, the species' primary threat
was identified as destruction and modification of habitat associated
with forest management practices (e.g., establishment and maintenance
of plantations, selective cutting, trail maintenance, and shelter
construction; 56 FR 60933, November 29, 1991). As described above under
``Forest Management Practices,'' the best available data indicates that
forest management practices are no longer negatively affecting
Lepanthes eltoroensis. Furthermore, the area where the species is found
is within a protected area (El Yunque), part of which is the El Toro
Wilderness designated in 2005, where the land is managed to preserve
its natural conditions and species like L. eltoroensis (USFS 2016, p.
32). We expect this wilderness area will remain permanently protected
as a nature reserve and be managed for conservation. Additionally,
because this area is within a National Forest, the National Forest
Management Act of 1976 (16 U.S.C. 1600 et seq.), requires El Yunque to
develop management plans. As noted above, El Yunque plan specifically
includes a set of standards and guidelines to protect the natural
resources within the El Toro Wilderness. Moreover, Federal agencies are
mandated to carry out programs for the conservation of endangered
species under section 7 of the Act to ensure that any action
authorized, funded, or carried out by a Federal agency is not likely to
jeopardize the continued existence of a federally listed species. The
USFS continually consults with the Service to avoid and minimize
impacts to listed species and their habitat at El Yunque. L.
eltoroensis shares habitat with other federally listed species (e.g.,
Ilex sintenisii, Ternstroemia luquillensis, and Elfin-woods warbler);
thus, the USFS will continue to consult with the Service on projects
that could affect listed species in this area. Additionally, since the
species was listed in 1991, many more individuals have been found and
observed growth has been stable with no documented decline in the
population.
Recovery Action 2: Continue To Gather Information on the Species'
Distribution and Abundance
This action has been met. Since the species was listed in 1991,
several surveys for Lepanthes eltoroensis have been conducted. Although
these surveys have been infrequent, sparse, and done with varying
spatial spread and methodology, making the results difficult to compare
over time, even partial surveys have found greater numbers of L.
eltoroensis. Surveys have indicated stable growth rates. While the best
available estimate of the metapopulation is 3,000 individuals, surveys
likely underestimate the species' true abundance as suitable habitat
off the two main trails are dangerous and mostly inaccessible,
preventing additional surveys. Surveys of habitat outside traditional
population sites may result in additional individuals.
Recovery Action 3: Conduct Research
This action has been met; however we continue to conduct research
on the species. Information has been collected throughout the years on
the distribution and dispersion patterns of Lepanthes eltoroensis
(Tremblay 1997a, pp. 85-96), variance in floral morphology (Tremblay
1997b, pp. 38-45), and genetic differentiation (Tremblay and Ackerman
2001, pp. 47-62). In 2016, the Service and the PRDNER provided funding
to researchers at the University of Puerto Rico to evaluate the current
population status of L. eltoroensis and model its demographic variation
in response to climatic variability (i.e., temperature and relative
humidity). This study is an effort to evaluate the influence that
climate change will have on the persistence of this species in its
environment. Results are anticipated to be available later in 2020 and
will be factored into our final determination on this proposed rule.
Data gathered during this project will also be used to characterize the
microhabitat variation between areas with and without L. eltoroensis
and develop a habitat selection model to evaluate the relationship
between the presence and absence of plants and landscape-level
variables such as elevation, forest type, aspect, and temperature.
Additionally, these data will allow for development of a monitoring
infrastructure to model the demographic responses of L. eltoroensis to
climate variation. This research will update the distribution and
status of L. eltoroensis within El Yunque, and assess natural threats,
particularly climate change, affecting these populations. However, the
best available data indicates that the species is projected to remain
viable, and the results of the additional surveys, while helpful
information, is not required.
Recovery Action 4: Establish New Populations
This action has not been met but is no longer necessary. At the
time of listing, only 140 plants were thought to exist; we now estimate
a population size of 3,000 individuals. The 2015 5-year status review
of Lepanthes eltoroensis states that the action to establish new
populations is not necessary at this time for the recovery of the
species because additional sub-populations and individuals have been
found since the species was listed (USFWS 2015, p. 5). Additionally,
relocation of plants from fallen trees onto standing trees following
hurricane events was found to be an effective management strategy to
improve and maximize survival and reproductive success (Ben[iacute]tez
and Tremblay 2003, pp. 67-69).
Recovery Action 5: Refine Recovery Criteria
This action has not been met but will no longer be necessary. The
Recovery Plan states that as additional information on Lepanthes
eltoroensis is gathered, it will be necessary to better define, and
possibly modify, recovery criteria. Based on the information compiled
in the SSA (USFWS 2019, entire) this orchid is projected to remain
viable over time, such that it may no longer meet the definition of an
endangered or threatened species (see Determination).
Recovery Criterion 1: Prepare and Implement and Agreement Between the
Service and the USFS Concerning the Protection of Lepanthes eltoroensis
Within El Yunque
This criterion has been partially met. Although there is not a
specific agreement between the Service and the USFS concerning the
protection of Lepanthes eltoroensis, the intent of this criterion--to
provide long-term protection for the species--has been met. Existing
populations and the species' habitat are protected. As stated before,
this orchid species occurs within the El Toro Wilderness area where
habitat destruction or modification is no longer considered a threat to
the species or its habitat. The implementation of management practices
in the forest has improved, no selective cutting is
[[Page 13854]]
conducted, and the USFS coordinates with the Service to avoid impacts
to listed species as part of their management practices. Because this
species overlaps with other listed species, the USFS will continue to
consult on projects that may affect this area. Furthermore,
Commonwealth laws and regulations protect the species' habitat as well
as the species from collection and removal. There is no evidence that
L. eltoroensis or its habitat is being negatively impacted; therefore,
a formal agreement between the Service and the USFS is not necessary
for protecting this species.
Recovery Criterion 2: Establish New Populations Capable of Self-
Perpetuation Within Protected Areas
As stated under Recovery Action 4, we have found that the action to
establish new populations is not necessary at this time for the
recovery of the species because additional sub-populations and
individuals have been found since the species was listed (USFWS 2015,
p. 5). Additionally, relocation of plants is an effective management
strategy to improve and maximize survival and reproductive success, as
has been demonstrated after hurricane events (Ben[iacute]tez and
Tremblay 2003, pp. 67-69).
Summary
The Recovery Plan for Lepanthes eltoroensis provided direction for
reversing the decline of this species, thereby informing when the
species may be delisted. The Recovery Plan outlined two criteria for
reclassifying the species from endangered to threatened: (1) Prepare
and implement an agreement between the Service and the USFS concerning
the protection of L. eltoroensis within El Yunque, and (2) establish
new populations capable of self-perpetuation within protected areas.
Both of these criteria have been partially met or are no longer
considered necessary. This species is protected by Commonwealth law and
regulations, and will continue to be should the species no longer
require Federal protection, and occurs within a protected wilderness
area that will remain protected and managed using techniques that are
beneficial for this and other co-occurring federally listed species.
There is no evidence that L. eltoroensis or its habitat is being
negatively impacted by forest management activities or will be in the
future. Additionally, the designation of wilderness where the species
occurs has eliminated the need for a formal agreement between the
Service and the USFS to protect this species. Since the species was
listed under the Act and the Recovery Plan was written, additional
plants have been found; therefore, establishment of new populations is
not necessary at this time for recovery. Additionally, the five
recovery actions intended to address threats to the species have all
been either met or determined to no longer be necessary for recovery.
Determination of Status of Lepanthes eltoroensis
Section 4 of the Act (16 U.S.C. 1533), and its implementing
regulations (50 CFR part 424), set forth the procedures for determining
whether a species meets the definition of ``endangered species'' or
``threatened species.'' The Act defines an ``endangered species'' as a
species that is in danger of extinction throughout all or a significant
portion of its range, and a ``threatened species'' as a species that is
likely to become an endangered species within the foreseeable future
throughout all or a significant portion of its range. The Act requires
that we determine whether a species meets the definition of
``endangered species'' or ``threatened species'' because of any of the
following factors: (A) The present or threatened destruction,
modification, or curtailment of its habitat or range; (B)
overutilization for commercial, recreational, scientific, or
educational purposes; (C) disease or predation; (D) the inadequacy of
existing regulatory mechanisms; or (E) other natural or manmade factors
affecting its continued existence.
Status Throughout All of Its Range
After evaluating threats to the species and assessing the
cumulative effect of the threats under the section 4(a)(1) factors, we
note that more individuals are known to occur than at the time of
listing. Additionally, the best metapopulation estimate of 3,000
individuals is likely an underestimate, as not all potential habitat
has been surveyed. Despite the effects of a small population size,
continued limited distribution, and evidence of low gene flow (Factor
E), the species has persisted and adapted to changing environmental
conditions. Forest management practices (Factor A) and collection
(Factor B) are not currently a threat to this species, nor are they
anticipated to negatively affect Lepanthes eltoroensis in the future.
Although hurricanes (Factor E) have the potential to negatively impact
growth rates and survival of L. eltoroensis, observed stable
subpopulations, even after recent severe hurricanes, indicate this
species has the ability to recover from these natural disturbances.
Additionally, relocation of plants is a viable management strategy that
can improve and maximize survival and reproduction success. The
greatest threat to the future of L. eltoroensis is current and ongoing
effects of climate change factors (Factor E); however, while changes to
precipitation and drought, temperature, and life zones are expected to
occur on Puerto Rico, within the foreseeable future, they are not
predicted to be substantial, and the viability of the species is
expected to remain stable. We anticipate small population dynamics
(Factor E) will continue to be a concern, as there is already evidence
of genetic drift, but L.eltoroensis has demonstrated the ability to
adapt to changing environmental conditions over time at population
levels lower than they are currently or projected to be in the future.
The species was originally listed as an endangered species due to
its rarity, restricted distribution, specialized habitat, and
vulnerability to habitat destruction or modification, as well as
because of collection for commercial/recreational uses. We find that
these threats are no longer affecting the status of the species as they
have been minimized or eliminated. Partial surveys over the past 18
years, including surveys following two strong hurricanes in 2018,
indicate there are more individuals than known at the time of listing,
and the population appears to be relatively stable. Surveys are limited
to detections right on the trails, or a very short distance from the
trails. Habitat that has not or cannot be surveyed may hold additional
subpopulations; therefore, surveys likely underestimate the true
abundance of this species. The habitat at El Yunque, where the species
occurs, is a designated wilderness area, and managed for its natural
conditions; therefore, habitat modification or destruction is not a
current threat. In addition, collection is prohibited under USFS
regulations, and there is no indication this is a current threat to the
species. Persistence of the species through repeated past strong
hurricanes indicates the species has the ability to recover and adapt
from disturbances. Furthermore, relocation of individuals from felled
trees further accelerates the recovery of the species post-hurricane.
While a narrow endemic, the species has continued to exist across its
historical range with all life stages represented and in good health.
While projections predict increasing temperatures and decreasing
[[Page 13855]]
precipitation over time into the future, projected impacts to the
species' habitat (e.g., life zone changes) are not expected to be
significant within the foreseeable future (USFWS 2019, p. 69). Recent,
yet unpublished downscaled climate modelling (Bowden 2018, pers. comm.)
indicates that higher elevation areas, like those supporting L.
eltoroensis, may be buffered from the more generally predicted level of
precipitation changes. This species has also demonstrated the ability
to adapt to changes in its environment. Since the species was listed,
warming temperatures have been documented and precipitation levels have
decreased, yet the species has persisted. Additionally, following
strong hurricanes that affected the species' habitat, abundance has
remained stable, with all age classes represented and in good health.
While suitable habitat conditions for the species may contract some
over the foreseeable future, the species is likely to continue to
maintain close to current levels of resiliency, redundancy, and
representation. We conclude that there are no existing or potential
threats that, either alone or in combination with others (i.e., forest
management practices, climate change, and hurricane damage), are likely
to cause the species' viability to decline. Thus, after assessing the
best available data, we conclude that L. eltoroensis is not in danger
of extinction throughout its range (i.e., meets the definition of an
endangered species) or likely to become so within the foreseeable
future (i.e., meets the definition of a threatened species).
Status Throughout a Significant Portion of Its Range
Under the Act and our implementing regulations, a species may
warrant listing if it is in danger of extinction or likely to become so
within the foreseeable future throughout all or a significant portion
of its range.
Having determined that Lepanthes eltoroensis is not in danger of
extinction or likely to become so within the foreseeable future
throughout all of its range, we now consider whether it may be in
danger of extinction or likely to become so within the foreseeable
future in a significant portion of its range. The range of a species
can theoretically be divided into portions in an infinite number of
ways, so we first screen the potential portions of the species' range
to determine if there are any portions that warrant further
consideration. To do the ``screening'' analysis, we ask whether there
are portions of the species' range for which there is substantial
information indicating that: (1) The portion may be significant; and
(2) the species may be, in that portion, either in danger of extinction
or likely to become so in the foreseeable future. For a particular
portion, if we cannot answer both questions in the affirmative, then
that portion does not warrant further consideration and the species
does not warrant listing because of its status in that portion of its
range. Conversely, we emphasize that answering both of these questions
in the affirmative is not a determination that the species is in danger
of extinction or likely to become so in the foreseeable future
throughout a significant portion of its range--rather, it is a step in
determining whether a more detailed analysis of the issue is required.
If we answer these questions in the affirmative, we then conduct a
more thorough analysis to determine whether the portion does indeed
meet both of the ``significant portion of its range'' prongs: (1) The
portion is significant; and (2) the species is, in that portion, either
in danger of extinction or likely to become so in the foreseeable
future. Confirmation that a portion does indeed meet one of these
prongs does not create a presumption, prejudgment, or other
determination as to whether the species is an endangered species or
threatened species. Rather, we must then undertake a more detailed
analysis of the other prong to make that determination. Only if the
portion does indeed meet both prongs would the species warrant listing
because of its status in a significant portion of its range.
We evaluated the range of the Lepanthes eltoroensis to determine if
any area may be a significant portion of the range. The species is a
narrow endemic that functions as a single, contiguous population (with
a metapopulation structure) and occurs within a very small area (El
Yunque, Puerto Rico). Every threat to the species in any portion of its
range is a threat to the species throughout all of its range, and so
the species has the same status under the Act throughout its narrow
range. Therefore, we conclude, based on this screening analysis, that
the species is not in danger of extinction or likely to become so in
the foreseeable future in any significant portion of its range. Our
conclusion--that we do not undertake additional analysis if we
determine that the species has the same status under the Act throughout
its narrow range--is consistent with the courts' holdings in Desert
Survivors v. Department of the Interior, No. 16-cv-01165-JCS, 2018 WL
4053447 (N.D. Cal. Aug. 24, 2018); Center for Biological Diversity v.
Jewell, 248 F. Supp. 3d, 946, 959 (D. Ariz. 2017); and Center for
Biological Diversity v. Everson, 2020 WL 437289 (D.D.C. Jan. 28, 2020).
Determination of Status
Our review of the best available scientific and commercial data
indicates that Lepanthes eltoroensis does not meet the definition of an
endangered species or a threatened species in accordance with sections
3(6) and 3(20) of the Act. Therefore, we propose to remove this species
from the Federal List of Endangered and Threatened Plants.
Effects of This Proposed Rule
This proposal, if made final, would revise 50 CFR 17.12(h) to
remove Lepanthes eltoroensis from the Federal List of Endangered and
Threatened Plants. Therefore, revision of the species' recovery plan is
not necessary. The prohibitions and conservation measures provided by
the Act, particularly through sections 7 and 9, would no longer apply
to this species. Federal agencies would no longer be required to
consult with the Service under section 7 of the Act in the event that
activities they authorize, fund, or carry out may affect L.
eltoroensis. There is no critical habitat designated for this species.
Post-Delisting Monitoring
Section 4(g)(1) of the Act requires us to monitor for not less than
5 years the status of all species that are delisted due to recovery.
Post-delisting monitoring refers to activities undertaken to verify
that a species delisted due to recovery remains secure from the risk of
extinction after the protections of the Act no longer apply. The
primary goal of PDM is to monitor the species to ensure that its status
does not deteriorate, and if a decline is detected, to take measures to
halt the decline so that proposing it as an endangered or threatened
species is not again needed. If at any time during the monitoring
period data indicate that protective status under the Act should be
reinstated, we can initiate listing procedures, including, if
appropriate, emergency listing. At the conclusion of the monitoring
period, we will review all available information to determine if
relisting, the continuation of monitoring, or the termination of
monitoring is appropriate.
Section 4(g) of the Act explicitly requires that we cooperate with
the States in development and implementation of PDM programs. However,
we remain ultimately responsible for compliance with section 4(g) and,
therefore, must remain actively engaged in all phases of PDM. We also
seek active participation of other
[[Page 13856]]
entities that are expected to assume responsibilities for the species'
conservation after delisting. The Service is currently coordinating
with PRDNER and USFS on the completion of the PDM.
We have prepared a draft PDM plan for the orchid, Lepanthes
eltoroensis. The plan is designed to detect substantial declines in the
species, with reasonable certainty and precision, or an increase in
threats. The plan:
(1) Summarizes the species' status at the time of proposed
delisting;
(2) Defines thresholds or triggers for potential monitoring
outcomes and conclusions;
(3) Lays out frequency and duration of monitoring;
(4) Articulates monitoring methods, including sampling
considerations;
(5) Outlines data compilation and reporting procedures and
responsibilities; and
(6) Proposes a PDM implementation schedule, funding, and
responsible parties.
Concurrent with this proposed delisting rule, we announce the
availability of the draft PDM plan for public review at https://www.regulations.gov under Docket No. FWS-R4-ES-2019-0073. The plan can
also be viewed in its entirety at https://www.fws.gov/southeast/caribbean/. Copies can also be obtained from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife
Service, Caribbean Ecological Services Field Office (see FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION CONTACT). We seek information, data, and comments from the
public regarding Lepanthes eltoroensis and the PDM plan. We are also
seeking peer review of the draft PDM plan during this proposed rule's
comment period. We anticipate finalizing this plan, considering all
public and peer review comments, prior to making a final determination
on the proposed delisting rule.
Required Determinations
Clarity of the Rule
We are required by Executive Orders 12866 and 12988 and by the
Presidential Memorandum of June 1, 1998, to write all rules in plain
language. This means that each rule we publish must:
(1) Be logically organized;
(2) Use the active voice to address readers directly;
(3) Use clear language rather than jargon;
(4) Be divided into short sections and sentences; and
(5) Use lists and tables wherever possible.
If you feel that we have not met these requirements, send us
comments by one of the methods listed in ADDRESSES. To better help us
revise the rule, your comments should be as specific as possible. For
example, you should tell us the numbers of the sections or paragraphs
that are unclearly written, which sections or sentences are too long,
the sections where you feel lists or tables would be useful, etc.
National Environmental Policy Act (42 U.S.C. 4321 et seq.)
We determined that we do not need to prepare an environmental
assessment or an environmental impact statements, as defined under the
authority of the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 (42 U.S.C.
4321 et seq.), in connection with regulations adopted pursuant to
section 4(a) of the Endangered Species Act. We published a notice
outlining our reasons for this determination in the Federal Register
October 25, 1983 (48 FR 49244).
Government-to-Government Relationship With Tribes
In accordance with the President's memorandum of April 29, 1994
(Government-to-Government Relations with Native American Tribal
Governments; 59 FR 22951), Executive Order 13175 (Consultation and
Coordination With Indian Tribal Governments), and the Department of the
Interior's manual at 512 DM 2, we readily acknowledge our
responsibility to communicate meaningfully with recognized Federal
Tribes on a government-to-government basis. We have determined that
there are no tribal interests affected by this proposal.
References Cited
A complete list of references cited in this rulemaking is available
on the internet at https://www.regulations.gov under Docket No. FWS-R4-
ES-2019-0073 and upon request from the Caribbean Ecological Services
Field Office (see FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT).
Authors
The primary authors of this proposed rule are the staff members of
the Service's Species Assessment Team and the Caribbean Ecological
Services Field Office.
List of Subjects in 50 CFR Part 17
Endangered and threatened species, Exports, Imports, Reporting and
recordkeeping requirements, Transportation.
Proposed Regulation Promulgation
Accordingly, we propose to amend part 17, subchapter B of chapter
I, title 50 of the Code of Federal Regulations, as set forth below:
PART 17--ENDANGERED AND THREATENED WILDLIFE AND PLANTS
0
1. The authority citation for part 17 continues to read as follows:
Authority: 16 U.S.C. 1361-1407; 1531-1544; and 4201-4245,
unless otherwise noted.
Sec. 17.12 [Amended]
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2. Amend Sec. 17.12(h) by removing the entry for ``Lepanthes
eltoroensis'' under FLOWERING PLANTS from the List of Endangered and
Threatened Plants.
Dated: January 23, 2020.
Aurelia Skipwith,
Director, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service.
[FR Doc. 2020-04824 Filed 3-9-20; 8:45 am]
BILLING CODE 4333-15-P