Energy Conservation Program: Data Collection and Comparison With Forecasted Unit Sales of Five Lamp Types, 17362-17365 [2019-08276]
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17362
Proposed Rules
Federal Register
Vol. 84, No. 80
Thursday, April 25, 2019
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
1604. Email: five_lamp_types@
ee.doe.gov.
Mr. Peter Cochran, U.S. Department of
Energy, Office of the General Counsel,
GC–33, 1000 Independence Avenue SW,
Washington, DC 20585–0121.
Telephone: (202) 586–9496. Email:
peter.cochran@hq.doe.gov.
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION:
10 CFR Part 430
Table of Contents
This section of the FEDERAL REGISTER
contains notices to the public of the proposed
issuance of rules and regulations. The
purpose of these notices is to give interested
persons an opportunity to participate in the
rule making prior to the adoption of the final
rules.
[EERE–2011–BT–NOA–0013]
Energy Conservation Program: Data
Collection and Comparison With
Forecasted Unit Sales of Five Lamp
Types
Office of Energy Efficiency and
Renewable Energy, Department of
Energy.
ACTION: Notification of data availability.
AGENCY:
The U.S. Department of
Energy (DOE) is informing the public of
its collection of shipment data and
creation of spreadsheet models to
provide comparisons between 2018 unit
sales and benchmark estimate unit sales
of five lamp types (i.e., rough service
lamps, vibration service lamps, 3-way
incandescent lamps, 2,601–3,300 lumen
general service incandescent lamps, and
shatter-resistant lamps). For 3-way
incandescent lamps, 2,601–3,300 lumen
general service incandescent lamps, and
shatter-resistant lamps, the 2018 sales
are not greater than 200 percent of the
forecasted estimates. The 2018 unit
sales for vibration service lamps are
greater than 200 percent of the
benchmark unit sales estimate. The
2018 unit sales for rough service lamps
are below the benchmark unit sales
estimate. DOE has prepared, and is
making available on its website, a
spreadsheet showing the comparisons of
projected sales versus 2018 sales, as
well as the model used to generate the
original sales estimates.
DATES: April 25, 2019.
ADDRESSES: The spreadsheet is available
online at: https://www1.eere.energy.gov/
buildings/appliance_standards/
standards.aspx?productid=16.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT:
Ms. Lucy deButts, U.S. Department of
Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and
Renewable Energy, Building
Technologies, EE–2J, 1000
Independence Avenue SW, Washington,
DC 20585–0121. Telephone: (202) 287–
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SUMMARY:
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I. Background
II. Definitions
A. Rough Service Lamps
B. Vibration Service Lamps
C. Three-Way Incandescent Lamps
D. 2,601–3,300 Lumen General Service
Incandescent Lamps
E. Shatter-Resistant Lamps
III. Comparison Methodology
IV. Comparison Results
A. Rough Service Lamps
B. Vibration Service Lamps
C. Three-Way Incandescent Lamps
D. 2,601–3,300 Lumen General Service
Incandescent Lamps
E. Shatter-Resistant Lamps
V. Conclusion
I. Background
The Energy Independence and
Security Act of 2007 (EISA 2007; Pub.
L. 110–140) was enacted on December
19, 2007. Among the requirements of
subtitle B (Lighting Energy Efficiency) of
title III of EISA 2007 were provisions
directing DOE to collect, analyze, and
monitor unit sales of five lamp types
(i.e., rough service lamps, vibration
service lamps, 3-way incandescent
lamps, 2,601–3,300 lumen general
service incandescent lamps, and shatterresistant lamps). In relevant part,
section 321(a)(3)(B) of EISA 2007
amended section 325(l) of the Energy
Policy and Conservation Act of 1975
(EPCA) by adding paragraph (4)(B),
which generally directs DOE, in
consultation with the National Electrical
Manufacturers Association (NEMA), to:
(1) Collect unit sales data for each of the
five lamp types for calendar years 1990
through 2006 in order to determine the
historical growth rate for each lamp
type; and (2) construct a model for each
of the five lamp types based on
coincident economic indicators that
closely match the historical annual
growth rates of each lamp type to
provide a neutral comparison
benchmark estimate of future unit sales.
(42 U.S.C. 6295(l)(4)(B)) Section
321(a)(3)(B) of EISA 2007 also amends
section 325(l) of EPCA by adding
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paragraph (4)(C), which, in relevant
part, directs DOE to collect unit sales
data for calendar years 2010 through
2025, in consultation with NEMA, for
each of the five lamp types. DOE must
then compare the actual lamp sales in
that year with the benchmark estimate.
(42 U.S.C. 6295(l)(4)(C)) If DOE finds
that the unit sales for a given lamp type
in any year between 2010 and 2025
exceed the benchmark estimate of unit
sales by at least 100 percent (i.e., are
greater than 200 percent of the
anticipated sales), DOE must issue a
finding within 90 days of the end of the
analyzed calendar year that the estimate
has been exceeded. (42 U.S.C.
6295(l)(4)(D)(i)(I), (E)(i)(I), (F)(i)(I), and
(H)(i)(I)) 1
On December 18, 2008, DOE issued a
notification of data availability (NODA)
for the Report on Data Collection and
Estimated Future Unit Sales of Five
Lamp Types (hereafter the ‘‘2008
analysis’’), which was published in the
Federal Register on December 24, 2008.
73 FR 79072. The 2008 analysis
presented the 1990 through 2006
shipment data collected in consultation
with NEMA, the spreadsheet model
DOE constructed for each lamp type,
and the benchmark unit sales estimates
for 2010 through 2025. On April 4,
2011, DOE published a NODA in the
Federal Register announcing the
availability of updated spreadsheet
models presenting the benchmark
estimates from the 2008 analysis and the
collected sales data from 2010 for the
first annual comparison. 76 FR 18425.
Similarly, DOE published six NODAs in
the Federal Register in the following
seven years announcing the updated
spreadsheet models and sales data for
the annual comparisons. 77 FR 16183
(March 20, 2012); 78 FR 15891 (March
13, 2013); 79 FR 15058 (March 18,
2014); 80 FR 13791 (March 17, 2015); 81
FR 20261 (April 7, 2016); 83 FR 36479
(July 30, 2018; contained 2016 and 2017
data). This NODA presents the eighth
comparison; specifically, section IV of
this report compares the actual unit
sales against benchmark unit sales
estimates for 2018.2
1 For 2,601–3,300 lumen general service
incandescent lamps, EPCA does not specify a
requirement to publish such findings, but as
discussed further in this notification, EPCA does
establish requirements upon the benchmark
estimate being exceeded.
2 The notifications and related documents for the
2008 analysis and successive annual comparisons,
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EISA 2007 also amended section
325(l) of EPCA by adding paragraphs
(4)(D) through (4)(H), which state that if
DOE finds that the unit sales for a given
lamp type in any year between 2010 and
2025 exceed the benchmark estimate of
unit sales by at least 100 percent (i.e.,
are greater than 200 percent of the
anticipated sales), then DOE must take
regulatory action for such lamps. (42
U.S.C. 6295(l)(4)(D) through (H)) For
2,601–3,300 lumen general service
incandescent lamps, DOE must impose
a statutorily prescribed maximumwattage level and packaging
requirement. (42 U.S.C. 6295(l)(4)(G))
For the other four types of lamps, the
statute requires DOE to initiate an
accelerated rulemaking to establish
energy conservation standards. If the
Secretary does not complete the
accelerated rulemakings within one year
from the end of the previous calendar
year, EPCA specifies maximum wattage
and related requirements (i.e., a
‘‘backstop requirement’’) for each lamp
type. (42 U.S.C. 6295(l)(4)(D)(ii), (E)(ii),
(F)(ii), and (H)(ii))
As in the 2008 analysis and previous
comparisons, DOE uses manufacturer
shipments as a surrogate for unit sales
in this NODA because manufacturer
shipment data are tracked and
aggregated by the trade organization,
NEMA. DOE believes that annual
shipments track closely with actual unit
sales of these five lamp types, as DOE
presumes that retailer inventories
remain constant from year to year. DOE
believes this is a reasonable assumption
because the markets for these five lamp
types have existed for many years,
thereby enabling manufacturers and
retailers to establish appropriate
inventory levels that reflect market
demand. In addition, increasing unit
sales must eventually result in
increasing manufacturer shipments.
This is the same methodology presented
in DOE’s 2008 analysis and subsequent
annual comparisons, and DOE did not
receive any comments challenging this
assumption or the general approach.
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II. Definitions
A. Rough Service Lamps
Section 321(a)(1)(B) of EISA 2007
amended section 321(30) of EPCA by
adding the definition of a ‘‘rough service
lamp.’’ A ‘‘rough service lamp’’ means
a lamp that—(i) has a minimum of 5
supports with filament configurations
that are C–7A, C–11, C–17, and C–22 as
listed in Figure 6–12 of the 9th edition
including this NODA, are available through the
DOE website at: https://www1.eere.energy.gov/
buildings/appliance_standards/standards.aspx?
productid=16.
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of the IESNA [Illuminating Engineering
Society of North America] Lighting
handbook, or similar configurations
where lead wires are not counted as
supports; and (ii) is designated and
marketed specifically for ‘‘rough
service’’ applications, with—(I) the
designation appearing on the lamp
packaging; and (II) marketing materials
that identify the lamp as being for rough
service. (42 U.S.C. 6291(30)(X))
As noted above, rough service
incandescent lamps must have a
minimum of five filament support wires
(not counting the two connecting leads
at the beginning and end of the
filament), and must be designated and
marketed for ‘‘rough service’’
applications. This type of incandescent
lamp can be used in applications where
the lamp would be subject to
mechanical shock or vibration while it
is operating. Other incandescent lamps
have only two support wires (which
also serve as conductors), one at each
end of the filament coil. When operating
(i.e., when the tungsten filament is
glowing so hot that it emits light), rough
service applications could cause an
incandescent lamp’s filament to break
prematurely. To address this problem,
lamp manufacturers developed lamp
designs that incorporate additional
support wires along the length of the
filament to ensure that it has support
not just at each end, but at several other
points as well. The additional support
protects the filament during operation
and enables longer operating life for
incandescent lamps in rough service
applications.
B. Vibration Service Lamps
Section 321(a)(1)(B) of EISA 2007
amended section 321(30) of EPCA by
adding the definition of a ‘‘vibration
service lamp.’’ A ‘‘vibration service
lamp’’ means a lamp that—(i) has
filament configurations that are C–5,
C–7A, or C–9, as listed in Figure 6–12
of the 9th Edition of the IESNA Lighting
Handbook or similar configurations; (ii)
has a maximum wattage of 60 watts; (iii)
is sold at retail in packages of 2 lamps
or less; and (iv) is designated and
marketed specifically for vibration
service or vibration-resistant
applications, with—(I) the designation
appearing on the lamp packaging; and
(II) marketing materials that identify the
lamp as being vibration service only. (42
U.S.C. 6291(30)(AA))
The statute mentions three examples
of filament configurations for vibration
service lamps in Figure 6–12 of the
IESNA Lighting Handbook, one of
which, C–7A, is also listed in the
statutory definition of ‘‘rough service
lamp.’’ The definition of ‘‘vibration
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service lamp’’ requires that such lamps
have a maximum wattage of 60 watts
and be sold at a retail level in packages
of two lamps or fewer. Vibration service
lamps must be designated and marketed
for vibration service or vibrationresistant applications. As the name
suggests, this type of incandescent lamp
can be used in applications where the
incandescent lamp would be subject to
a continuous low level of vibration,
such as in a ceiling fan light kit. In such
applications, incandescent lamps
without additional filament support
wires may not achieve the full rated life,
because the filament wire is brittle and
would be subject to breakage at typical
operating temperature. To address this
problem, lamp manufacturers typically
use a more malleable tungsten filament
to avoid damage and short circuits
between coils.
C. Three-Way Incandescent Lamps
Section 321(a)(1)(B) of EISA 2007
amended section 321(30) of EPCA by
adding the definition of a ‘‘3-way
incandescent lamp.’’ A ‘‘3-way
incandescent lamp’’ includes an
incandescent lamp that—(i) employs 2
filaments, operated separately and in
combination, to provide 3 light levels;
and (ii) is designated on the lamp
packaging and marketing materials as
being a 3-way incandescent lamp. (42
U.S.C. 6291(30)(Y))
Three-way lamps are commonly
found in wattage combinations such as
50, 100, and 150 watts or 30, 70, and
100 watts. These lamps use two
filaments (e.g., a 30-watt and a 70-watt
filament) and can be operated separately
or together to produce three different
lumen outputs (e.g., 305 lumens with
one filament, 995 lumens with the
other, or 1,300 lumens using the
filaments together). When used in threeway sockets, these lamps allow users to
control the light level. Three-way
incandescent lamps are typically used
in residential multi-purpose areas,
where consumers may adjust the light
level to be appropriate for the task they
are performing.
D. 2,601–3,300 Lumen General Service
Incandescent Lamps
The statute does not provide a
definition of ‘‘2,601–3,300 Lumen
General Service Incandescent Lamps;’’
however, DOE is interpreting this term
to be a general service incandescent
lamp 3 that emits light between 2,601
3 ‘‘The term ‘general service incandescent lamp’
means a standard incandescent or halogen type
lamp that—(I) is intended for general service
applications; (II) has a medium screw base; (III) has
a lumen range of not less than 310 lumens and not
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and 3,300 lumens. These lamps are used
in general service applications when
high light output is needed.
E. Shatter-Resistant Lamps
Section 321(a)(1)(B) of EISA 2007
amended section 321(30) of EPCA by
adding the definition of a ‘‘shatterresistant lamp, shatter-proof lamp, or
shatter-protected lamp.’’ ‘‘Shatterresistant lamp, shatter-proof lamp, and
shatter-protected lamp’’ mean a lamp
that—(i) has a coating or equivalent
technology that is compliant with NSF/
ANSI 51 [National Sanitation
Foundation/American National
Standards Institute] and is designed to
contain the glass if the glass envelope of
the lamp is broken; and (ii) is
designated and marketed for the
intended application, with—(I) the
designation on the lamp packaging; and
(II) marketing materials that identify the
lamp as being shatter-resistant, shatterproof, or shatter-protected. (42 U.S.C.
6291(30)(Z)) Although the definition
provides three names commonly used to
refer to these lamps, DOE simply refers
to them collectively as ‘‘shatter-resistant
lamps.’’
Shatter-resistant lamps incorporate a
special coating designed to prevent glass
shards from being dispersed if a lamp’s
glass envelope breaks. Shatter-resistant
lamps incorporate a coating compliant
with industry standard NSF/ANSI 51,4
‘‘Food Equipment Materials,’’ and are
labeled and marketed as shatterresistant, shatter-proof, or shatterprotected. Some types of the coatings
can also protect the lamp from breakage
in applications subject to heat and
thermal shock that may occur from
water, sleet, snow, soldering, or
welding.
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III. Comparison Methodology
In the 2008 analysis, DOE reviewed
each of the five sets of shipment data
that was collected in consultation with
NEMA and applied two curve fits to
generate unit sales estimates for the five
lamp types after calendar year 2006.
One curve fit applied a linear regression
to the historical data and extended that
line into the future. The other curve fit
applied an exponential growth function
to the shipment data and projected unit
sales into the future. For this
calculation, linear regression treats the
more than 2,600 lumens or, in the case of a
modified spectrum lamp, not less than 232 lumens
and not more than 1,950 lumens; and (IV) is capable
of being operated at a voltage range at least partially
within 110 and 130 volts.’’ (42 U.S.C.
6291(30)(D)(i)).
4 NSF/ANSI 51 applies specifically to materials
and coatings used in the manufacturing of
equipment and objects destined for contact with
foodstuffs.
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year as a dependent variable and
shipments as the independent variable.
The linear regression curve fit is
modeled by minimizing the differences
among the data points and the best
curve-fit linear line using the least
squares function.5 The exponential
curve fit is also a regression function
and uses the same least squares function
to find the best fit. For some data sets,
an exponential curve provides a better
characterization of the historical data,
and, therefore, a better projection of the
future data.
For 3-way incandescent lamps, 2,601–
3,300 lumen general service
incandescent lamps, and shatterresistant lamps, DOE found that the
linear regression and exponential
growth curve fits produced nearly the
same estimates of unit sales (i.e., the
difference between the two forecasted
values was less than 1 or 2 percent).
However, for rough service and
vibration service lamps, the linear
regression curve fit projected lamp unit
sales would decline to zero for both
lamp types by 2018. In contrast, the
exponential growth curve fit projected a
more gradual decline in unit sales, such
that lamps would still be sold beyond
2018, and it was, therefore, considered
the more realistic forecast. While DOE
was satisfied that either the linear
regression or exponential growth
spreadsheet model generated a
reasonable benchmark unit sales
estimate for 3-way incandescent lamps,
2,601–3,300 lumen general service
incandescent lamps, and shatterresistant lamps, DOE selected the
exponential growth curve fit for these
lamp types for consistency with the
selection made for rough service and
vibration service lamps.6 DOE examines
the benchmark unit sales estimates and
actual sales for each of the five lamp
types in the following section and also
makes the comparisons available in a
spreadsheet online: https://
www1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/
appliance_standards/standards.aspx?
productid=16.
IV. Comparison Results
A. Rough Service Lamps
On October 18, 2016, DOE published
a notification announcing that the actual
5 The least squares function is an analytical tool
that DOE uses to minimize the sum of the squared
residual differences between the actual historical
data points and the modeled value (i.e., the linear
curve fit). In minimizing this value, the resulting
curve fit will represent the best fit possible to the
data provided.
6 This selection is consistent with the previous
annual comparisons. See DOE’s 2008 forecast
spreadsheet models of the lamp types for greater
detail on the estimates.
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unit sales for rough service lamps were
219.7 percent of the benchmark estimate
for the 2015 calendar year. 81 FR 71794,
71800.7 Since unit sales for rough
service lamps exceeded 200 percent of
the benchmark estimate in 2015, and
DOE did not complete an energy
conservation standards rulemaking for
these lamps by the end of calendar year
2016, the backstop requirement was
triggered. DOE published a final rule on
December 26, 2017 to adopt the
statutory backstop requirements for
rough service lamps which require that
rough service lamps: (I) Have a shatterproof coating or equivalent technology
that is compliant with NSF/ANSI 51
and is designed to contain the glass if
the glass envelope of the lamp is broken
and to provide effective containment
over the life of the lamp; (II) have a
maximum 40-watt limitation; and (III)
be sold at retail only in a package
containing 1 lamp. 42 U.S.C.
6295(l)(4)(D)(ii)
DOE stated in the December 2017
final rule that it will continue to collect
and model data for rough service lamps
for two years after the effective date of
January 25, 2018 (calendar years 2018
and 2019), in accordance with 42 U.S.C.
6295(l)(4)(I)(ii). 82 FR 60845, 60846
(December 26, 2017). For the 2018
calendar year, the exponential growth
forecast projected the benchmark unit
sales estimate for rough service lamps to
be 4,268,000 units. The NEMA-provided
shipment data reported shipments of
3,881,000 units in 2018, which is 90.9
percent of the benchmark estimate. DOE
will complete its obligation to collect
and model data for rough service lamps
after the 2019 calendar year.
B. Vibration Service Lamps
On April 7, 2016, DOE published a
notification announcing that the actual
unit sales for vibration service lamps
were 272.5 percent of the benchmark
estimate for the 2015 calendar year. 81
FR 20261. Similar to rough service
lamps, since unit sales for vibration
service lamps exceeded 200 percent of
the benchmark estimate in 2015, and
DOE did not complete an energy
conservation standards rulemaking for
these lamps by the end of calendar year
2016, the backstop requirement was
triggered. DOE published a final rule on
December 26, 2017 to adopt the
statutory backstop requirements for
vibration service lamps which require
that vibration service lamps: (I) Have a
7 The October 2016 finding for rough service
lamps was the result of a correction by NEMA to
the data it initially submitted and relied upon by
DOE for the April 7, 2016 notification. See, https://
www.regulations.gov/document?D=EERE-2013-BTSTD-0051-0075.
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maximum 40-watt limitation; and (II) be
sold at retail only in a package
containing 1 lamp. 42 U.S.C.
6295(l)(4)(E)(ii)
DOE stated in the December 2017
final rule that it will continue to collect
and model data for vibration service
lamps for two years after the effective
date of January 25, 2018 (calendar years
2018 and 2019), in accordance with 42
U.S.C. 6295(l)(4)(I)(ii). 82 FR 60845,
60846 (December 26, 2017). For the
2018 calendar year, the exponential
growth forecast projected the
benchmark unit sales estimate for
vibration service lamps to be 2,229,000
units. The NEMA-provided shipment
data reported shipments of 4,723,000
units in 2018, which is 211.9 percent of
the benchmark estimate. DOE will
complete its obligation to collect and
model data for vibration service lamps
after the 2019 calendar year.
C. Three-Way Incandescent Lamps
For 3-way incandescent lamps, the
exponential growth forecast projected
the benchmark unit sales estimate for
2018 to be 47,121,000 units. The NEMAprovided shipment data reported
shipments of 22,098,000 units in 2018.
As the NEMA-provided shipment data
reported is only 46.9 percent the
benchmark estimate, DOE will continue
to track 3-way incandescent lamp sales
data and will not initiate an accelerated
standards rulemaking for this lamp type
at this time.
D. 2,601–3,300 Lumen General Service
Incandescent Lamps
For 2,601–3,300 lumen general
service incandescent lamps, the
exponential growth forecast projected
the benchmark unit sales estimate for
2018 to be 34,373,000 units. The NEMAprovided shipment data reported
shipments of 2,465,000 units in 2018.
As the NEMA-provided shipment data
reported is only 7.2 percent of the
benchmark estimate, DOE will continue
to track 2,601–3,300 lumen general
service incandescent lamp sales data
and will not impose statutory
requirements for this lamp type at this
time.
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E. Shatter-Resistant Lamps
For shatter-resistant lamps, the
exponential growth forecast projected
the benchmark unit sales estimate for
2018 to be 1,688,000 units. The NEMAprovided shipment data reported
shipments of 400,000 units in 2018. As
the NEMA-provided shipment data
reported is only 23.7 percent of the
benchmark estimate, DOE will continue
to track shatter-resistant lamp sales data
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and will not initiate an accelerated
standards rulemaking for this lamp type
at this time.
V. Conclusion
This NODA compares the 2018
shipments against benchmark unit sales
estimates for rough service lamps,
vibration service lamps, 3-way
incandescent lamps, 2,601–3,300 lumen
general service incandescent lamps, and
shatter-resistant lamps. For 3-way
incandescent lamps, 2,601–3,300 lumen
general service incandescent lamps, and
shatter-resistant lamps, the 2018 sales
are not greater than 200 percent of the
forecasted estimates. The 2018 unit
sales for vibration service lamps are
greater than 200 percent of the
benchmark unit sales estimate. The
2018 unit sales for rough service lamps
are below the benchmark unit sales
estimate. DOE will continue to monitor
these lamp types and will assess 2019
unit sales next year.
Signed in Washington, DC, on April 18,
2019.
Steven Chalk,
Acting Deputy Assistant Secretary for Energy
Efficiency, Energy Efficiency and Renewable
Energy.
[FR Doc. 2019–08276 Filed 4–24–19; 8:45 am]
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follow with a final action.
DATES: Any comments must arrive by
May 28, 2019.
ADDRESSES: Submit your comments,
identified by Docket ID No. EPA–R09–
SUMMARY:
PO 00000
Frm 00004
Fmt 4702
Sfmt 4702
I. The State’s Submittal
A. What measure did the State submit?
B. Are there other versions of this measure?
C. What is the purpose of the submitted
measure?
II. The EPA’s Evaluation and Proposed
Action
A. How is the EPA evaluating the measure?
B. Does the measure meet the evaluation
criteria?
C. Proposed action and request for public
comment
III. Incorporation by Reference
IV. Statutory and Executive Order Reviews
I. The State’s Submittal
A. What measure did the State submit?
Table 1 lists the measure addressed by
this proposal with the date that it was
adopted by the California Air Resources
Board (CARB). We refer to this measure
as the ‘‘South Coast Incentive Measure.’’
E:\FR\FM\25APP1.SGM
25APP1
Agencies
[Federal Register Volume 84, Number 80 (Thursday, April 25, 2019)]
[Proposed Rules]
[Pages 17362-17365]
From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office [www.gpo.gov]
[FR Doc No: 2019-08276]
========================================================================
Proposed Rules
Federal Register
________________________________________________________________________
This section of the FEDERAL REGISTER contains notices to the public of
the proposed issuance of rules and regulations. The purpose of these
notices is to give interested persons an opportunity to participate in
the rule making prior to the adoption of the final rules.
========================================================================
Federal Register / Vol. 84, No. 80 / Thursday, April 25, 2019 /
Proposed Rules
[[Page 17362]]
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
10 CFR Part 430
[EERE-2011-BT-NOA-0013]
Energy Conservation Program: Data Collection and Comparison With
Forecasted Unit Sales of Five Lamp Types
AGENCY: Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Department of
Energy.
ACTION: Notification of data availability.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
SUMMARY: The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is informing the public of
its collection of shipment data and creation of spreadsheet models to
provide comparisons between 2018 unit sales and benchmark estimate unit
sales of five lamp types (i.e., rough service lamps, vibration service
lamps, 3-way incandescent lamps, 2,601-3,300 lumen general service
incandescent lamps, and shatter-resistant lamps). For 3-way
incandescent lamps, 2,601-3,300 lumen general service incandescent
lamps, and shatter-resistant lamps, the 2018 sales are not greater than
200 percent of the forecasted estimates. The 2018 unit sales for
vibration service lamps are greater than 200 percent of the benchmark
unit sales estimate. The 2018 unit sales for rough service lamps are
below the benchmark unit sales estimate. DOE has prepared, and is
making available on its website, a spreadsheet showing the comparisons
of projected sales versus 2018 sales, as well as the model used to
generate the original sales estimates.
DATES: April 25, 2019.
ADDRESSES: The spreadsheet is available online at: https://www1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/standards.aspx?productid=16.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT:
Ms. Lucy deButts, U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy
Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Building Technologies, EE-2J, 1000
Independence Avenue SW, Washington, DC 20585-0121. Telephone: (202)
287-1604. Email: [email protected].
Mr. Peter Cochran, U.S. Department of Energy, Office of the General
Counsel, GC-33, 1000 Independence Avenue SW, Washington, DC 20585-0121.
Telephone: (202) 586-9496. Email: [email protected].
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION:
Table of Contents
I. Background
II. Definitions
A. Rough Service Lamps
B. Vibration Service Lamps
C. Three-Way Incandescent Lamps
D. 2,601-3,300 Lumen General Service Incandescent Lamps
E. Shatter-Resistant Lamps
III. Comparison Methodology
IV. Comparison Results
A. Rough Service Lamps
B. Vibration Service Lamps
C. Three-Way Incandescent Lamps
D. 2,601-3,300 Lumen General Service Incandescent Lamps
E. Shatter-Resistant Lamps
V. Conclusion
I. Background
The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA 2007; Pub.
L. 110-140) was enacted on December 19, 2007. Among the requirements of
subtitle B (Lighting Energy Efficiency) of title III of EISA 2007 were
provisions directing DOE to collect, analyze, and monitor unit sales of
five lamp types (i.e., rough service lamps, vibration service lamps, 3-
way incandescent lamps, 2,601-3,300 lumen general service incandescent
lamps, and shatter-resistant lamps). In relevant part, section
321(a)(3)(B) of EISA 2007 amended section 325(l) of the Energy Policy
and Conservation Act of 1975 (EPCA) by adding paragraph (4)(B), which
generally directs DOE, in consultation with the National Electrical
Manufacturers Association (NEMA), to: (1) Collect unit sales data for
each of the five lamp types for calendar years 1990 through 2006 in
order to determine the historical growth rate for each lamp type; and
(2) construct a model for each of the five lamp types based on
coincident economic indicators that closely match the historical annual
growth rates of each lamp type to provide a neutral comparison
benchmark estimate of future unit sales. (42 U.S.C. 6295(l)(4)(B))
Section 321(a)(3)(B) of EISA 2007 also amends section 325(l) of EPCA by
adding paragraph (4)(C), which, in relevant part, directs DOE to
collect unit sales data for calendar years 2010 through 2025, in
consultation with NEMA, for each of the five lamp types. DOE must then
compare the actual lamp sales in that year with the benchmark estimate.
(42 U.S.C. 6295(l)(4)(C)) If DOE finds that the unit sales for a given
lamp type in any year between 2010 and 2025 exceed the benchmark
estimate of unit sales by at least 100 percent (i.e., are greater than
200 percent of the anticipated sales), DOE must issue a finding within
90 days of the end of the analyzed calendar year that the estimate has
been exceeded. (42 U.S.C. 6295(l)(4)(D)(i)(I), (E)(i)(I), (F)(i)(I),
and (H)(i)(I)) \1\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\1\ For 2,601-3,300 lumen general service incandescent lamps,
EPCA does not specify a requirement to publish such findings, but as
discussed further in this notification, EPCA does establish
requirements upon the benchmark estimate being exceeded.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
On December 18, 2008, DOE issued a notification of data
availability (NODA) for the Report on Data Collection and Estimated
Future Unit Sales of Five Lamp Types (hereafter the ``2008 analysis''),
which was published in the Federal Register on December 24, 2008. 73 FR
79072. The 2008 analysis presented the 1990 through 2006 shipment data
collected in consultation with NEMA, the spreadsheet model DOE
constructed for each lamp type, and the benchmark unit sales estimates
for 2010 through 2025. On April 4, 2011, DOE published a NODA in the
Federal Register announcing the availability of updated spreadsheet
models presenting the benchmark estimates from the 2008 analysis and
the collected sales data from 2010 for the first annual comparison. 76
FR 18425. Similarly, DOE published six NODAs in the Federal Register in
the following seven years announcing the updated spreadsheet models and
sales data for the annual comparisons. 77 FR 16183 (March 20, 2012); 78
FR 15891 (March 13, 2013); 79 FR 15058 (March 18, 2014); 80 FR 13791
(March 17, 2015); 81 FR 20261 (April 7, 2016); 83 FR 36479 (July 30,
2018; contained 2016 and 2017 data). This NODA presents the eighth
comparison; specifically, section IV of this report compares the actual
unit sales against benchmark unit sales estimates for 2018.\2\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\2\ The notifications and related documents for the 2008
analysis and successive annual comparisons, including this NODA, are
available through the DOE website at: https://www1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/standards.aspx?productid=16.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
[[Page 17363]]
EISA 2007 also amended section 325(l) of EPCA by adding paragraphs
(4)(D) through (4)(H), which state that if DOE finds that the unit
sales for a given lamp type in any year between 2010 and 2025 exceed
the benchmark estimate of unit sales by at least 100 percent (i.e., are
greater than 200 percent of the anticipated sales), then DOE must take
regulatory action for such lamps. (42 U.S.C. 6295(l)(4)(D) through (H))
For 2,601-3,300 lumen general service incandescent lamps, DOE must
impose a statutorily prescribed maximum-wattage level and packaging
requirement. (42 U.S.C. 6295(l)(4)(G)) For the other four types of
lamps, the statute requires DOE to initiate an accelerated rulemaking
to establish energy conservation standards. If the Secretary does not
complete the accelerated rulemakings within one year from the end of
the previous calendar year, EPCA specifies maximum wattage and related
requirements (i.e., a ``backstop requirement'') for each lamp type. (42
U.S.C. 6295(l)(4)(D)(ii), (E)(ii), (F)(ii), and (H)(ii))
As in the 2008 analysis and previous comparisons, DOE uses
manufacturer shipments as a surrogate for unit sales in this NODA
because manufacturer shipment data are tracked and aggregated by the
trade organization, NEMA. DOE believes that annual shipments track
closely with actual unit sales of these five lamp types, as DOE
presumes that retailer inventories remain constant from year to year.
DOE believes this is a reasonable assumption because the markets for
these five lamp types have existed for many years, thereby enabling
manufacturers and retailers to establish appropriate inventory levels
that reflect market demand. In addition, increasing unit sales must
eventually result in increasing manufacturer shipments. This is the
same methodology presented in DOE's 2008 analysis and subsequent annual
comparisons, and DOE did not receive any comments challenging this
assumption or the general approach.
II. Definitions
A. Rough Service Lamps
Section 321(a)(1)(B) of EISA 2007 amended section 321(30) of EPCA
by adding the definition of a ``rough service lamp.'' A ``rough service
lamp'' means a lamp that--(i) has a minimum of 5 supports with filament
configurations that are C-7A, C-11, C-17, and C-22 as listed in Figure
6-12 of the 9th edition of the IESNA [Illuminating Engineering Society
of North America] Lighting handbook, or similar configurations where
lead wires are not counted as supports; and (ii) is designated and
marketed specifically for ``rough service'' applications, with--(I) the
designation appearing on the lamp packaging; and (II) marketing
materials that identify the lamp as being for rough service. (42 U.S.C.
6291(30)(X))
As noted above, rough service incandescent lamps must have a
minimum of five filament support wires (not counting the two connecting
leads at the beginning and end of the filament), and must be designated
and marketed for ``rough service'' applications. This type of
incandescent lamp can be used in applications where the lamp would be
subject to mechanical shock or vibration while it is operating. Other
incandescent lamps have only two support wires (which also serve as
conductors), one at each end of the filament coil. When operating
(i.e., when the tungsten filament is glowing so hot that it emits
light), rough service applications could cause an incandescent lamp's
filament to break prematurely. To address this problem, lamp
manufacturers developed lamp designs that incorporate additional
support wires along the length of the filament to ensure that it has
support not just at each end, but at several other points as well. The
additional support protects the filament during operation and enables
longer operating life for incandescent lamps in rough service
applications.
B. Vibration Service Lamps
Section 321(a)(1)(B) of EISA 2007 amended section 321(30) of EPCA
by adding the definition of a ``vibration service lamp.'' A ``vibration
service lamp'' means a lamp that--(i) has filament configurations that
are C-5, C-7A, or C-9, as listed in Figure 6-12 of the 9th Edition of
the IESNA Lighting Handbook or similar configurations; (ii) has a
maximum wattage of 60 watts; (iii) is sold at retail in packages of 2
lamps or less; and (iv) is designated and marketed specifically for
vibration service or vibration-resistant applications, with--(I) the
designation appearing on the lamp packaging; and (II) marketing
materials that identify the lamp as being vibration service only. (42
U.S.C. 6291(30)(AA))
The statute mentions three examples of filament configurations for
vibration service lamps in Figure 6-12 of the IESNA Lighting Handbook,
one of which, C-7A, is also listed in the statutory definition of
``rough service lamp.'' The definition of ``vibration service lamp''
requires that such lamps have a maximum wattage of 60 watts and be sold
at a retail level in packages of two lamps or fewer. Vibration service
lamps must be designated and marketed for vibration service or
vibration-resistant applications. As the name suggests, this type of
incandescent lamp can be used in applications where the incandescent
lamp would be subject to a continuous low level of vibration, such as
in a ceiling fan light kit. In such applications, incandescent lamps
without additional filament support wires may not achieve the full
rated life, because the filament wire is brittle and would be subject
to breakage at typical operating temperature. To address this problem,
lamp manufacturers typically use a more malleable tungsten filament to
avoid damage and short circuits between coils.
C. Three-Way Incandescent Lamps
Section 321(a)(1)(B) of EISA 2007 amended section 321(30) of EPCA
by adding the definition of a ``3-way incandescent lamp.'' A ``3-way
incandescent lamp'' includes an incandescent lamp that--(i) employs 2
filaments, operated separately and in combination, to provide 3 light
levels; and (ii) is designated on the lamp packaging and marketing
materials as being a 3-way incandescent lamp. (42 U.S.C. 6291(30)(Y))
Three-way lamps are commonly found in wattage combinations such as
50, 100, and 150 watts or 30, 70, and 100 watts. These lamps use two
filaments (e.g., a 30-watt and a 70-watt filament) and can be operated
separately or together to produce three different lumen outputs (e.g.,
305 lumens with one filament, 995 lumens with the other, or 1,300
lumens using the filaments together). When used in three-way sockets,
these lamps allow users to control the light level. Three-way
incandescent lamps are typically used in residential multi-purpose
areas, where consumers may adjust the light level to be appropriate for
the task they are performing.
D. 2,601-3,300 Lumen General Service Incandescent Lamps
The statute does not provide a definition of ``2,601-3,300 Lumen
General Service Incandescent Lamps;'' however, DOE is interpreting this
term to be a general service incandescent lamp \3\ that emits light
between 2,601
[[Page 17364]]
and 3,300 lumens. These lamps are used in general service applications
when high light output is needed.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\3\ ``The term `general service incandescent lamp' means a
standard incandescent or halogen type lamp that--(I) is intended for
general service applications; (II) has a medium screw base; (III)
has a lumen range of not less than 310 lumens and not more than
2,600 lumens or, in the case of a modified spectrum lamp, not less
than 232 lumens and not more than 1,950 lumens; and (IV) is capable
of being operated at a voltage range at least partially within 110
and 130 volts.'' (42 U.S.C. 6291(30)(D)(i)).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
E. Shatter-Resistant Lamps
Section 321(a)(1)(B) of EISA 2007 amended section 321(30) of EPCA
by adding the definition of a ``shatter-resistant lamp, shatter-proof
lamp, or shatter-protected lamp.'' ``Shatter-resistant lamp, shatter-
proof lamp, and shatter-protected lamp'' mean a lamp that--(i) has a
coating or equivalent technology that is compliant with NSF/ANSI 51
[National Sanitation Foundation/American National Standards Institute]
and is designed to contain the glass if the glass envelope of the lamp
is broken; and (ii) is designated and marketed for the intended
application, with--(I) the designation on the lamp packaging; and (II)
marketing materials that identify the lamp as being shatter-resistant,
shatter-proof, or shatter-protected. (42 U.S.C. 6291(30)(Z)) Although
the definition provides three names commonly used to refer to these
lamps, DOE simply refers to them collectively as ``shatter-resistant
lamps.''
Shatter-resistant lamps incorporate a special coating designed to
prevent glass shards from being dispersed if a lamp's glass envelope
breaks. Shatter-resistant lamps incorporate a coating compliant with
industry standard NSF/ANSI 51,\4\ ``Food Equipment Materials,'' and are
labeled and marketed as shatter-resistant, shatter-proof, or shatter-
protected. Some types of the coatings can also protect the lamp from
breakage in applications subject to heat and thermal shock that may
occur from water, sleet, snow, soldering, or welding.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\4\ NSF/ANSI 51 applies specifically to materials and coatings
used in the manufacturing of equipment and objects destined for
contact with foodstuffs.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
III. Comparison Methodology
In the 2008 analysis, DOE reviewed each of the five sets of
shipment data that was collected in consultation with NEMA and applied
two curve fits to generate unit sales estimates for the five lamp types
after calendar year 2006. One curve fit applied a linear regression to
the historical data and extended that line into the future. The other
curve fit applied an exponential growth function to the shipment data
and projected unit sales into the future. For this calculation, linear
regression treats the year as a dependent variable and shipments as the
independent variable. The linear regression curve fit is modeled by
minimizing the differences among the data points and the best curve-fit
linear line using the least squares function.\5\ The exponential curve
fit is also a regression function and uses the same least squares
function to find the best fit. For some data sets, an exponential curve
provides a better characterization of the historical data, and,
therefore, a better projection of the future data.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\5\ The least squares function is an analytical tool that DOE
uses to minimize the sum of the squared residual differences between
the actual historical data points and the modeled value (i.e., the
linear curve fit). In minimizing this value, the resulting curve fit
will represent the best fit possible to the data provided.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
For 3-way incandescent lamps, 2,601-3,300 lumen general service
incandescent lamps, and shatter-resistant lamps, DOE found that the
linear regression and exponential growth curve fits produced nearly the
same estimates of unit sales (i.e., the difference between the two
forecasted values was less than 1 or 2 percent). However, for rough
service and vibration service lamps, the linear regression curve fit
projected lamp unit sales would decline to zero for both lamp types by
2018. In contrast, the exponential growth curve fit projected a more
gradual decline in unit sales, such that lamps would still be sold
beyond 2018, and it was, therefore, considered the more realistic
forecast. While DOE was satisfied that either the linear regression or
exponential growth spreadsheet model generated a reasonable benchmark
unit sales estimate for 3-way incandescent lamps, 2,601-3,300 lumen
general service incandescent lamps, and shatter-resistant lamps, DOE
selected the exponential growth curve fit for these lamp types for
consistency with the selection made for rough service and vibration
service lamps.\6\ DOE examines the benchmark unit sales estimates and
actual sales for each of the five lamp types in the following section
and also makes the comparisons available in a spreadsheet online:
https://www1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/standards.aspx?productid=16.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\6\ This selection is consistent with the previous annual
comparisons. See DOE's 2008 forecast spreadsheet models of the lamp
types for greater detail on the estimates.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
IV. Comparison Results
A. Rough Service Lamps
On October 18, 2016, DOE published a notification announcing that
the actual unit sales for rough service lamps were 219.7 percent of the
benchmark estimate for the 2015 calendar year. 81 FR 71794, 71800.\7\
Since unit sales for rough service lamps exceeded 200 percent of the
benchmark estimate in 2015, and DOE did not complete an energy
conservation standards rulemaking for these lamps by the end of
calendar year 2016, the backstop requirement was triggered. DOE
published a final rule on December 26, 2017 to adopt the statutory
backstop requirements for rough service lamps which require that rough
service lamps: (I) Have a shatter-proof coating or equivalent
technology that is compliant with NSF/ANSI 51 and is designed to
contain the glass if the glass envelope of the lamp is broken and to
provide effective containment over the life of the lamp; (II) have a
maximum 40-watt limitation; and (III) be sold at retail only in a
package containing 1 lamp. 42 U.S.C. 6295(l)(4)(D)(ii)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\7\ The October 2016 finding for rough service lamps was the
result of a correction by NEMA to the data it initially submitted
and relied upon by DOE for the April 7, 2016 notification. See,
https://www.regulations.gov/document?D=EERE-2013-BT-STD-0051-0075.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
DOE stated in the December 2017 final rule that it will continue to
collect and model data for rough service lamps for two years after the
effective date of January 25, 2018 (calendar years 2018 and 2019), in
accordance with 42 U.S.C. 6295(l)(4)(I)(ii). 82 FR 60845, 60846
(December 26, 2017). For the 2018 calendar year, the exponential growth
forecast projected the benchmark unit sales estimate for rough service
lamps to be 4,268,000 units. The NEMA-provided shipment data reported
shipments of 3,881,000 units in 2018, which is 90.9 percent of the
benchmark estimate. DOE will complete its obligation to collect and
model data for rough service lamps after the 2019 calendar year.
B. Vibration Service Lamps
On April 7, 2016, DOE published a notification announcing that the
actual unit sales for vibration service lamps were 272.5 percent of the
benchmark estimate for the 2015 calendar year. 81 FR 20261. Similar to
rough service lamps, since unit sales for vibration service lamps
exceeded 200 percent of the benchmark estimate in 2015, and DOE did not
complete an energy conservation standards rulemaking for these lamps by
the end of calendar year 2016, the backstop requirement was triggered.
DOE published a final rule on December 26, 2017 to adopt the statutory
backstop requirements for vibration service lamps which require that
vibration service lamps: (I) Have a
[[Page 17365]]
maximum 40-watt limitation; and (II) be sold at retail only in a
package containing 1 lamp. 42 U.S.C. 6295(l)(4)(E)(ii)
DOE stated in the December 2017 final rule that it will continue to
collect and model data for vibration service lamps for two years after
the effective date of January 25, 2018 (calendar years 2018 and 2019),
in accordance with 42 U.S.C. 6295(l)(4)(I)(ii). 82 FR 60845, 60846
(December 26, 2017). For the 2018 calendar year, the exponential growth
forecast projected the benchmark unit sales estimate for vibration
service lamps to be 2,229,000 units. The NEMA-provided shipment data
reported shipments of 4,723,000 units in 2018, which is 211.9 percent
of the benchmark estimate. DOE will complete its obligation to collect
and model data for vibration service lamps after the 2019 calendar
year.
C. Three-Way Incandescent Lamps
For 3-way incandescent lamps, the exponential growth forecast
projected the benchmark unit sales estimate for 2018 to be 47,121,000
units. The NEMA-provided shipment data reported shipments of 22,098,000
units in 2018. As the NEMA-provided shipment data reported is only 46.9
percent the benchmark estimate, DOE will continue to track 3-way
incandescent lamp sales data and will not initiate an accelerated
standards rulemaking for this lamp type at this time.
D. 2,601-3,300 Lumen General Service Incandescent Lamps
For 2,601-3,300 lumen general service incandescent lamps, the
exponential growth forecast projected the benchmark unit sales estimate
for 2018 to be 34,373,000 units. The NEMA-provided shipment data
reported shipments of 2,465,000 units in 2018. As the NEMA-provided
shipment data reported is only 7.2 percent of the benchmark estimate,
DOE will continue to track 2,601-3,300 lumen general service
incandescent lamp sales data and will not impose statutory requirements
for this lamp type at this time.
E. Shatter-Resistant Lamps
For shatter-resistant lamps, the exponential growth forecast
projected the benchmark unit sales estimate for 2018 to be 1,688,000
units. The NEMA-provided shipment data reported shipments of 400,000
units in 2018. As the NEMA-provided shipment data reported is only 23.7
percent of the benchmark estimate, DOE will continue to track shatter-
resistant lamp sales data and will not initiate an accelerated
standards rulemaking for this lamp type at this time.
V. Conclusion
This NODA compares the 2018 shipments against benchmark unit sales
estimates for rough service lamps, vibration service lamps, 3-way
incandescent lamps, 2,601-3,300 lumen general service incandescent
lamps, and shatter-resistant lamps. For 3-way incandescent lamps,
2,601-3,300 lumen general service incandescent lamps, and shatter-
resistant lamps, the 2018 sales are not greater than 200 percent of the
forecasted estimates. The 2018 unit sales for vibration service lamps
are greater than 200 percent of the benchmark unit sales estimate. The
2018 unit sales for rough service lamps are below the benchmark unit
sales estimate. DOE will continue to monitor these lamp types and will
assess 2019 unit sales next year.
Signed in Washington, DC, on April 18, 2019.
Steven Chalk,
Acting Deputy Assistant Secretary for Energy Efficiency, Energy
Efficiency and Renewable Energy.
[FR Doc. 2019-08276 Filed 4-24-19; 8:45 am]
BILLING CODE 6450-01-P