Air Plan Approval; Kentucky; 2008 Ozone NAAQS Interstate Transport SIP Requirements, 17123-17131 [2018-08137]
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(1) Captain of the Port means the
Commander, U.S. Coast Guard Sector
Maryland-National Capital Region.
(2) Designated representative means
any Coast Guard commissioned,
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authorized by the Captain of the Port
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safety zone: All navigable waters of the
Washington Channel within 200 feet of
the fireworks barge located within an
area bounded on the south by latitude
38°52′30″ W, and bounded on the north
by the Francis Case (I–395) Memorial
Bridge, located at Washington, DC. All
coordinates refer to datum NAD 1983.
(c) Regulations. The general safety
zone regulations found in 33 CFR 165
subpart C apply to the safety zone
created by this section.
(1) All persons are required to comply
with the general regulations governing
safety zones found in 33 CFR 165.23.
(2) Entry into or remaining in this
zone is prohibited unless authorized by
the Coast Guard Captain of the Port
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vessels underway within this safety
zone at the time it is implemented are
to depart the zone.
(3) Persons desiring to transit the area
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or designated representative. To request
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vessels enforcing this section can be
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FM channel 16 (156.8 MHz). Upon
being hailed by a U.S. Coast Guard
vessel, or other Federal, State, or local
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(d) Enforcement. This section will be
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May 10, 2018.
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Dated: April 12, 2018.
L.P. Harrison, Jr.,
Captain, U.S. Coast Guard, Captain of the
Port Maryland-National Capital Region.
[FR Doc. 2018–08091 Filed 4–17–18; 8:45 am]
BILLING CODE 9110–04–P
ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION
AGENCY
40 CFR Part 52
[EPA–R04–OAR–2018–0142; FRL–9976–
96—Region 4]
Air Plan Approval; Kentucky; 2008
Ozone NAAQS Interstate Transport SIP
Requirements
Environmental Protection
Agency (EPA).
ACTION: Proposed rule.
AGENCY:
The Environmental Protection
Agency (EPA) is proposing to approve
Kentucky’s February 28, 2018, draft
State Implementation Plan (SIP)
submission pertaining to the ‘‘good
neighbor’’ provision of the Clean Air
Act (CAA or Act) for the 2008 8-hour
ozone National Ambient Air Quality
Standard (NAAQS) that was submitted
by Kentucky for parallel processing. The
good neighbor provision requires each
state’s SIP to address the interstate
transport of air pollution in amounts
that contribute significantly to
nonattainment, or interfere with
maintenance, of a NAAQS in any other
state. In this action, EPA is proposing to
approve Kentucky’s draft submission
demonstrating that no additional
emission reductions are necessary to
address the good neighbor provision for
the 2008 ozone NAAQS beyond those
required by the Cross-State Air
Pollution Rule Update (CSAPR Update)
federal implementation plan (FIP).
Accordingly, EPA is proposing to
approve Kentucky’s draft submission as
partially addressing the requirements of
the good neighbor provision for the
2008 ozone NAAQS, and resolving any
obligation remaining under the good
neighbor provision after promulgation
of the CSAPR Update FIP. EPA is
proposing this action because it is
consistent with the CAA.
DATES: Comments must be received on
or before May 18, 2018.
ADDRESSES: Submit your comments,
identified by Docket ID No. at EPA–
R04–OAR–2018–0142 https://
www.regulations.gov. Follow the online
instructions for submitting comments.
Once submitted, comments cannot be
edited or removed from Regulations.gov.
EPA may publish any comment received
SUMMARY:
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to its public docket. Do not submit
electronically any information you
consider to be Confidential Business
Information (CBI) or other information
whose disclosure is restricted by statute.
Multimedia submissions (audio, video,
etc.) must be accompanied by a written
comment. The written comment is
considered the official comment and
should include discussion of all points
you wish to make. EPA will generally
not consider comments or comment
contents located outside of the primary
submission (i.e., on the web, cloud, or
other file sharing system). For
additional submission methods, the full
EPA public comment policy,
information about CBI or multimedia
submissions, and general guidance on
making effective comments, please visit
https://www2.epa.gov/dockets/
commenting-epa-dockets.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT:
Ashten Bailey, Air Regulatory
Management Section, Air Planning and
Implementation Branch, Air, Pesticides
and Toxics Management Division, U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency,
Region 4, 61 Forsyth Street SW, Atlanta,
Georgia 30303–8960. Ms. Bailey can be
reached by telephone at (404) 562–9164
or via electronic mail at bailey.ashten@
epa.gov.
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION:
I. Background
On March 27, 2008 (73 FR 16436),
EPA promulgated an ozone NAAQS that
revised the levels of the primary and
secondary 8-hour ozone standards from
0.08 parts per million (ppm) to 0.075
ppm. Pursuant to CAA section 110(a)(1),
within three years after promulgation of
a new or revised NAAQS (or shorter, if
EPA prescribes), states must submit SIPs
that meet the applicable requirements of
section 110(a)(2). EPA has historically
referred to these SIP submissions made
for the purpose of satisfying the
requirements of sections 110(a)(1) and
110(a)(2) as ‘‘infrastructure SIP’’
submissions. One of the structural
requirements of section 110(a)(2) is
section 110(a)(2)(D)(i), also known as
the ‘‘good neighbor’’ provision, which
generally requires SIPs to contain
adequate provisions to prohibit in-state
emissions activities from having certain
adverse air quality effects on
neighboring states due to interstate
transport of air pollution. There are four
sub-elements, or ‘‘prongs,’’ within
section 110(a)(2)(D)(i) of the CAA. CAA
section 110(a)(2)(D)(i)(I) requires SIPs to
include provisions prohibiting any
source or other type of emissions
activity in one state from emitting any
air pollutant in amounts that will
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contribute significantly to
nonattainment, or interfere with
maintenance, of the NAAQS in another
state. The two provisions of this section
are referred to as prong 1 (significant
contribution to nonattainment) and
prong 2 (interference with
maintenance). Section 110(a)(2)(D)(i)(II)
requires SIPs to contain adequate
provisions to prohibit emissions that
will interfere with measures required to
be included in the applicable
implementation plan for any other state
under part C to prevent significant
deterioration of air quality (prong 3) or
to protect visibility (prong 4). This
proposed action addresses only prongs
1 and 2 of section 110(a)(2)(D)(i).1
On July 17, 2012, Kentucky submitted
a SIP submission to EPA, addressing a
number of the CAA requirements for the
2008 8-hour ozone NAAQS
infrastructure SIPs. With respect to the
interstate transport requirements of
110(a)(2)(D)(i)(I), EPA disapproved the
submission, effective April 8, 2013 (78
FR 14681). In the notice, EPA explained
that the disapproval of the good
neighbor portion of the
Commonwealth’s infrastructure SIP
submission did not trigger a mandatory
duty for EPA to promulgate a FIP to
address these requirements. Id. at
14683. Citing the D.C. Circuit’s decision
EME Homer City Generation, L.P. v.
EPA, 696 F.3d 7, 41 (D.C. Cir. 2012)
(EME Homer City I), EPA explained that
the court concluded states have no
obligation to make a SIP submission to
address the good neighbor provision for
a new or revised NAAQS until EPA first
defines a state’s obligations pursuant to
that section. Therefore, because a good
neighbor SIP addressing the 2008 ozone
standard was not at that time required,
EPA indicated that its disapproval
action would not trigger an obligation
for EPA to promulgate a FIP to address
the interstate transport requirements.
On April 29, 2014, the Supreme Court
issued a decision reversing and vacating
the D.C. Circuit’s decision in EME
Homer City I. EPA v. EME Homer City
Generation, L.P., 133 S. Ct. 2857 (2013).
EPA subsequently finalized a
determination that the FIP obligation
was triggered on the date of the
judgment issued in EPA v. EME Homer
City Generation, or on June 2, 2014. See
81 FR 74504, 74513 (October 26, 2016).2
1 All other infrastructure SIP elements for
Kentucky for the 2008 8-hour ozone NAAQS were
addressed in separate rulemakings. See 78 FR 14681
(March 7, 2013) and 79 FR 65143 (November 3,
2014).
2 On April 30, 2013, Sierra Club filed a petition
for review of EPA’s final action disapproving
Kentucky’s good neighbor SIP in the Sixth Circuit
based on the Agency’s conclusion that the FIP
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In October 2016, EPA promulgated
the CSAPR Update to address the
requirements of CAA section
110(a)(2)(D)(i)(I) concerning interstate
transport of air pollution for the 2008
ozone NAAQS. See 81 FR 74504
(October 26, 2016). In the CSAPR
Update rulemaking, EPA determined
that air pollution transported from
Kentucky would unlawfully affect other
states’ ability to attain or maintain the
2008 8-hour ozone NAAQS and
established an ozone season nitrogen
oxide (NOX) budget for Kentucky’s
electricity generating units (EGUs).3 In
particular, EPA found that Kentucky
was linked to four maintenance-only
receptors in Harford County, Maryland;
Richmond County, New York; Hamilton
County, Ohio; and Philadelphia County,
Pennsylvania. Kentucky EGUs meeting
the CSAPR applicability criteria are
consequently subject to CSAPR FIPs
that require participation in the CSAPR
NOX Annual Trading Program, the
CSAPR sulfur dioxide (SO2) Group 1
Trading Program, and the CSAPR NOX
Ozone Season Group 2 Trading
Program.4
In the CSAPR Update, EPA found that
the CSAPR FIP for Kentucky and 20
other states may provide only a partial
remedy with respect to the good
neighbor provision requirements as to
the 2008 8-hour ozone NAAQS. EPA’s
analysis showed persisting downwind
air quality problems after
implementation of the CSAPR Update in
2017, including two of the receptors to
which Kentucky was linked in Harford
County, Maryland, and Richmond
County, New York. Because EPA’s
analysis showed persisting downwind
obligation was not triggered by the disapproval of
Kentucky’s good neighbor SIP. Sierra Club v. EPA,
Case No. 13–3546 (6th Cir., filed Apr. 30, 2013).
Following the Supreme Court decision, EPA
requested, and the Sixth Circuit granted, vacatur
and remand of the portion of EPA’s final action on
Kentucky’s good neighbor SIP that determined that
the FIP obligation was not triggered by the
disapproval. See Order, Sierra Club v. EPA, Case
No. 13–3546 (Mar. 13, 2015), ECF No. 74–1. On
October 24, 2016 (81 FR 74513), EPA issued a final
action correcting the portion of the Kentucky
disapproval notice indicating that the FIP obligation
would not be triggered by the SIP disapproval, but
rather on the date of the Supreme Court’s judgment.
EPA explained that the FIP obligation was not
triggered as of the date of the SIP disapproval
because the controlling law as of that date was the
DC Circuit decision in EME Homer City I, which
held that states had no obligation to submit a SIP
and EPA had no authority to issue a FIP until EPA
first quantified each state’s emission reduction
obligation under the good neighbor provision.
Rather, EPA concluded that the FIP obligation was
triggered when the Supreme Court clarified the
state and federal obligations with respect to the
good neighbor provision.
3 CSAPR Update, 81 FR at 74507–08.
4 40 CFR 52.38(a)(2)(i), (b)(2), (b)(2)(iii); 52.39(b);
52.940(a), (b); 52.941(a).
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air quality problems and did not assess
available emissions reductions after
2017, EPA could not definitively
conclude, without further analysis, that
the CSAPR Update fully addressed the
requirements of the good neighbor
provision in upwind states, including
Kentucky. See 81 FR at 74521.
On October 27, 2017, EPA issued a
memorandum 5 with technical
information and related analyses to
assist states with developing SIPs to
address the remaining section
110(a)(2)(D)(i)(I) requirements for the
2008 8-hour ozone NAAQS. In the
technical analysis related to the October
2017 Transport Memo, EPA used
detailed air quality analyses to identify
locations in the U.S. where EPA
anticipates there will be nonattainment
or maintenance problems for the 2008
8-hour ozone NAAQS in the year 2023
(these are identified as nonattainment or
maintenance receptors, respectively).
This analysis used the Comprehensive
Air Quality Model with Extensions
(CAMx version 6.40) 6 to model the 2011
base year, and 2023 future base case
emissions scenarios to identify
projected nonattainment and
maintenance sites with respect to the
2008 8-hour ozone NAAQS.7 The
updated modeling data released with
the October 2017 Transport Memo is the
most up-to-date information EPA has
developed to inform the Agency’s
analysis of downwind air quality
problems for the 2008 8-hour ozone
NAAQS.8 EPA’s updated modeling for
the 2023 future base case emissions
scenarios indicates that there are no
monitoring sites, outside of California,
that are projected to have nonattainment
or maintenance problems with respect
to the 2008 ozone NAAQS in 2023.
5 Memorandum, Stephen D. Page, Supplemental
Information on the Interstate Transport State
Implementation Plan Submissions for the 2008
Ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standards
under Clean Air Action Section 110(a)(2)(D)(i)(I)
(October 2017 Transport Memo).
6 CAMx v6.40 was the most recent public release
version of CAMx at the time EPA updated its
modeling in fall 2017. ‘‘Comprehensive Air Quality
Model with Extensions version 6.40 User’s Guide’’
Ramboll Environ, December 2016. https://
www.camx.com/.
7 For the updated modeling, EPA used the
construct of the modeling platform (i.e., modeling
domain and non-emissions inputs) that we used for
the Notice of Data Availability (NODA) modeling,
except that the photolysis rates files were updated
to be consistent with CAMx v6.40. The NODA Air
Quality Modeling Technical Support Document
describing the modeling platform is available at
https://www.epa.gov/airmarkets/notice-dataavailability-preliminary-interstate-ozone-transportmodeling-data-2015-ozone.
8 October 2017 Transport Memo.
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II. Kentucky’s Draft SIP Submission
On February 28, 2018, Kentucky
provided a draft SIP submission to
address the remaining interstate
transport obligations for the 2008 8-hour
ozone NAAQS, which contains a
demonstration 9 that the emission
reductions required by the CSAPR
Update are adequate to prohibit
emissions within Kentucky from
significantly contributing to
nonattainment, or interfering with the
maintenance, of downwind states with
respect to the 2008 ozone NAAQS. This
demonstration shows that, based on the
Commonwealth’s current and projected
emissions, air quality modeling data,
and on-the-books state and federal
measures reducing ozone precursor
emissions, including the CSAPR Update
FIP, emissions from Kentucky will not
significantly contribute to
nonattainment, or interfere with the
maintenance, of downwind states with
respect to the 2008 ozone NAAQS in
2023.
In its February 28, 2018, draft
submission, Kentucky reviewed air
quality modeling and data files that EPA
disseminated in the October 2017
Transport Memo, which indicated that
the air quality problems at monitors to
which Kentucky was linked in the
CSAPR Update would be resolved in
2023. Kentucky’s draft SIP submission
agrees with the October 2017 Transport
Memo’s preliminary projections, and
provides information intended to
demonstrate that use of the modeling is
appropriate. In addition, the draft
submission contains air quality
modeling conducted by Alpine
Geophysics, LLC, that concludes that
none of the nonattainment and
maintenance receptors identified in the
CSAPR Update are predicted to be in
nonattainment or have issues with
maintenance in 2023. Additionally,
Kentucky cites information related to
emissions trends—such as reductions in
ozone precursor emissions and controls
on Kentucky sources—as further
evidence that, after implementation of
all on-the-books measures including
those identified in the CSAPR Update,
emissions from the Commonwealth will
no longer contribute significantly to
nonattainment or interfere with
maintenance of the 2008 8-hour ozone
NAAQS in any other state.
Kentucky requests that EPA approve
the draft SIP submission and find that
Kentucky is not required to make any
further reductions, beyond those
9 As discussed above, EPA previously
disapproved the portion of the Kentucky’s July 17,
2012, SIP submission as it related to prongs 1 and
2. See 78 FR 14681 (March 7, 2013).
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required by the CSAPR Update, to
address its statutory obligation under
CAA section 110(a)(2)(D)(i)(I) for the
2008 ozone NAAQS.10
III. EPA’s Analysis of Kentucky’s Draft
Submission
In Kentucky’s draft submission, the
Commonwealth relies on modeling
performed by EPA, which was
summarized in the October 2017
Transport Memo, in support of its
conclusion that the emissions
reductions required by the CSAPR
Update are adequate to prohibit
emissions within Kentucky from
significantly contributing to
nonattainment, or interfering with the
maintenance, of downwind states with
respect to the 2008 ozone NAAQS.
Accordingly, before undertaking the
specific analysis of Kentucky’s SIP
submittal, it is helpful to understand
how EPA developed the October 2017
Transport Memorandum. EPA applied
the same four-step framework used in
previous federal regulatory actions
addressing interstate transport of ozone
pollution, including most recently the
CSAPR Update. While some aspects of
these previous regulatory actions have
been challenged in court—and some
aspects of these challenges have been
upheld—each of these rulemakings
essentially followed the same four-step
interstate transport framework to
quantify and implement emission
reductions necessary to address the
interstate transport requirements of the
good neighbor provision. These steps
are described in the following four
paragraphs.
(1) Identifying downwind air quality
problems relative to the 2008 ozone
NAAQS. EPA has historically identified
downwind areas with air quality
problems considering monitored ozone
data where appropriate and air quality
modeling projections to a future
compliance year. In the CSAPR Update,
the Agency identified not only those
areas expected to be in nonattainment
with the ozone NAAQS, but also those
areas that may struggle to maintain the
NAAQS, despite clean monitored data
or projected attainment.
(2) Determining which upwind states
are ‘‘linked’’ to these identified
downwind air quality problems and
thereby warrant further analysis to
determine whether their emissions
violate the good neighbor provision. In
CSAPR and the CSAPR Update, EPA
10 EPA is parallel processing Kentucky’s draft SIP
submittal. As discussed in more detail in Section
IV, below, final approval of Kentucky’s submission
is contingent on Kentucky’s submission of a final
SIP submittal that does not differ significantly from
the draft.
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identified such upwind states as those
modeled to contribute at or above a
threshold equivalent to one percent of
the applicable NAAQS. Upwind states
linked to one of these downwind
nonattainment or maintenance areas
were then evaluated to determine what
level of emissions reductions, if any,
should be required of each state.
(3) For states linked to downwind air
quality problems, identifying upwind
emissions on a statewide basis that
significantly contribute to
nonattainment or interfere with
maintenance of a standard. In all of
EPA’s prior rulemakings addressing
interstate ozone pollution transport, the
Agency apportioned emission reduction
responsibility among multiple upwind
states linked to downwind air quality
problems by considering feasible NOX
control strategies and using cost-based
and air quality-based criteria to quantify
the amount of a linked upwind state’s
emissions that significantly contribute
to nonattainment or interfere with
maintenance in another state.
(4) For states that are found to have
emissions that significantly contribute
to nonattainment or interfere with
maintenance of the NAAQS downwind,
implementing the necessary emission
reductions within the state. EPA has
done this by requiring affected sources
in upwind states to participate in
allowance trading programs (e.g., the
CSAPR NOX Ozone Season Group 2
Trading Program) to achieve the
necessary emission reductions.
EPA’s proposed action on Kentucky’s
draft submission is based on a finding
that 2023 is a reasonable analytic year
for evaluating ozone transport problems
with respect to the 2008 ozone NAAQS
and that interstate ozone transport air
quality modeling projections for 2023
indicate that Kentucky is not expected
to significantly contribute to
nonattainment or interfere with
maintenance of the 2008 ozone NAAQS
in downwind states. As explained in
more detail in the following paragraphs,
EPA’s selection of 2023 as a reasonable
analytic year is supported by an
assessment of attainment dates for the
2008 ozone NAAQS and feasibility for
control strategies to reduce NOX in
CSAPR Update states, including
Kentucky. EPA’s assessment of NOX
control strategy feasibility prioritizes
NOX control strategies in CSAPR Update
states that would be additional to those
strategies that were already quantified
into CSAPR Update emissions budgets.
EPA proposes that 2023 is an
appropriate future analytic year because
it is the first ozone season for which
significant new cost-effective postcombustion controls to reduce NOX
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could be feasibly installed across the
CSAPR Update region, and thus
represents the timeframe that is as
expeditious as practicable for upwind
states to implement additional emission
reductions. EPA’s analysis of steps 1
and 2 for the 2023 analytic year
indicates that there are no expected
eastern nonattainment or maintenance
receptors for the 2008 ozone NAAQS in
this future year. Together, these findings
support EPA’s proposed approval of
Kentucky’s SIP submittal, which is
based on the determination that
Kentucky is not expected to
significantly contribute to
nonattainment or interfere with
maintenance of the 2008 ozone NAAQS
in downwind states in 2023.
A. Additional Information Regarding
Selection of an Analytic Year
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One of the first steps in conducting air
quality modeling analysis to evaluate
steps 1 and 2 of the four-step interstate
transport framework is selecting a future
analytic year. In determining the
appropriate future analytic year for
purposes of assessing remaining
interstate transport obligations for the
2008 ozone NAAQS, including
Kentucky’s, EPA considered two
primary factors: Attainment dates and
NOX control feasibility.
First, EPA considered the downwind
attainment dates for the 2008 ozone
NAAQS. In North Carolina v. EPA, the
D.C. Circuit held that emissions
reductions required by the good
neighbor provision should be evaluated
considering the relevant attainment
dates of downwind nonattainment areas
impacted by interstate transport.11 The
next attainment dates for the 2008 ozone
NAAQS will be July 20, 2021, for
nonattainment areas classified as
serious and July 20, 2027, for
nonattainment areas classified as
severe.12 Because the various attainment
deadlines are in July, which is in the
middle of the ozone monitoring season
for all states, data from the calendar year
prior to the attainment date (e.g., data
from 2020 for the 2021 attainment date
and from 2026 for the 2027 attainment
date) are the last data that can be used
to demonstrate attainment with the
NAAQS. In all cases, the statute
11 531 F.3d 896, 911–12 (D.C. Cir. 2008) (holding
that EPA must coordinate interstate transport
compliance deadlines with downwind attainment
deadlines).
12 While there are no areas (outside of California)
that are classified as either serious or severe, these
classifications (and the associated attainment dates)
are required under the statute in the event that the
many downwind moderate nonattainment areas fail
to attain by their attainment date of July 20, 2018.
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provides that areas should attain as
expeditiously as practicable.13
Second, EPA considered the
timeframes that may be required for
implementing further emissions
reductions as expeditiously as
practicable. In considering potential
emissions reductions, EPA notes that
emissions levels are already expected to
decline in the future through
implementation of existing local, state
and federal emissions reduction
programs. This is an important
consideration because the U.S. Supreme
Court and the D.C. Circuit Court have
both held that EPA may not require
emissions reductions greater than
necessary to achieve attainment and
maintenance of the NAAQS in
downwind areas.14 Therefore, if new
controls cannot be implemented feasibly
for several years and air quality will
likely be cleaner in the future, EPA
should evaluate air quality in a future
year to ensure that any potential
emissions reductions would not overcontrol relative to the identified ozone
problem. Accordingly, it is reasonable to
evaluate downwind air quality, and
identify any remaining receptors, in the
year in which EPA expects additional
emissions reductions, if any, to be
implemented.
For its analysis of NOX control
feasibility, EPA believes that the
feasibility of control strategies should
reflect the time needed to plan for,
install, and test new EGU and non-EGU
NOX reduction strategies across
multiple states. This conclusion is based
on previous interstate ozone transport
analyses showing that multiple upwind
states are typically linked to identified
eastern downwind ozone problems.15 In
particular, EPA’s assessment in the
CSAPR Update indicated that, with
respect to the Harford and Richmond
receptors to which Kentucky was
linked, eight other states and the District
of Columbia would continue to be
linked to the Harford receptor and seven
other states would continue to be linked
to the Richmond receptor after
implementation of the CSAPR Update in
2017.16 Thus, to evaluate potential
upwind obligations for one of several
states linked to a common downwind
air quality problem, EPA believes the
most appropriate approach is to
evaluate potential NOX control
CAA section 181(a)(1).
v. EME Homer City Generation, L.P., 134
S. Ct. 1584, 1600–01 (2014); EME Homer City
Generation, L.P. v. EPA, 795 F.3d 118, 127 (D.C. Cir.
2015).
15 See 81 FR 74504 (October 26, 2016).
16 See EPA’s Air Quality Assessment Tool from
the CSAPR Update in the docket for this
rulemaking.
strategies on a regional, rather than
state-specific, basis.
Further, EPA believes that the
feasibility of new emissions controls
should be considered on multiple
upwind source categories in order to
ensure that the Agency properly
evaluates NOX reduction potential and
cost-effectiveness (at step 3 of the
framework) from all reasonable control
measures (including beyond the EGU
sector). Major NOX emissions come from
multiple anthropogenic source
categories, such as electric utilities and
industrial facilities. As commenters
noted during the development of the
CSAPR Update, EGUs in the eastern
U.S. have been the subject of regulation
to address interstate ozone pollution
transport and have made significant
financial investments to achieve
emission reductions. While EPA
evaluates additional control feasibility
for EGUs in the discussion that follows,
non-EGU source categories may also be
well-positioned to cost-effectively
reduce NOX relative to EGUs, including
non-EGUs that currently do not report
emissions to EPA under 40 CFR part 75
and for which EPA’s information
concerning emissions levels, existing
control efficiencies, and further
emissions reduction potential is
therefore more uncertain.17
In establishing the CSAPR Update
EGU NOX ozone season emission
budgets, EPA quantified the emission
reductions achievable from all NOX
control strategies that were feasible
within one year and cost-effective at a
marginal cost of $1,400 per ton of NOX
removed.18 These EGU NOX control
strategies were: Fully operating existing
Selective Catalytic Reduction (SCR),
including both optimizing NOX removal
by existing, operational SCRs and
turning on and optimizing existing idled
SCRs; installing state-of-the-art NOX
combustion controls; and shifting
generation to existing units with lowerNOX emission rates within the same
state. For the purposes of this proposed
action on Kentucky’s draft submission,
EPA considers these NOX control
strategies to have been appropriately
evaluated in the CSAPR Update
rulemaking. Further, the Agency
believes that the resulting CSAPR
Update emission budgets are being
appropriately implemented under the
CSAPR NOX Ozone Season Group 2
13 See
14 EPA
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17 See Assessment of Non-EGU NO Emission
X
Controls, Cost of Controls, and Time for
Compliance Final technical support document
(TSD) from the CSAPR Update in the docket for this
rulemaking.
18 The CSAPR Update was signed on September
7, 2016—approximately 8 months before the
beginning of the 2017 ozone season on May 1.
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allowance trading program. Therefore,
EPA has focused its further assessment
on feasibility of controls that were
deemed to be infeasible to install for the
2017 ozone season in the CSAPR
Update for purposes of identifying an
appropriate future analytic year rather
than reassessing controls previously
analyzed.
EPA identified, but did not account
for, the following two EGU NOX control
strategies in establishing the CSAPR
Update emissions budgets because
implementation by 2017 was not
considered feasible: Installing new SCRs
and selective non-catalytic reduction
(SNCR) controls. In the CSAPR Update,
EPA found that EGU SCR postcombustion controls can achieve up to
90 percent reduction in EGU NOX
emissions. In 2017, these controls were
in widespread use by EGUs in the east.
In the 22 state CSAPR Update region,
approximately 59 percent of coal-fired
EGU heat input and 64 percent of
natural gas-fired EGU generation was
equipped with SCR.19 Installing new
SCR controls for EGUs not already
equipped with such controls generally
involves conducting an engineering
review of the facility and awarding a
procurement contract; obtaining a
construction permit; installing the
control technology; and obtaining an
operating permit.20 The total time
associated with navigating these steps is
estimated to be up to 39 months for an
individual power plant installing SCR
on more than one boiler.21 However, for
the purposes of evaluating the
installation timing for new SCR controls
at the fleet-level, rather than the unitlevel, within the CSAPR Update region,
EPA believes more time would be
needed. As explained more fully below,
EPA determined that a minimum of 48
months is a reasonable time to allow for
the coordination of outages,
shepherding of labor and material
supply, and identification of retrofit
projects. This time frame would
facilitate multiple power plants with
multiple boilers to conduct all stages of
post-combustion and combustion
control project planning, installation
and operation.
Scheduled curtailment, or planned
outage, for pollution control installation
would be necessary to complete either
19 Heat
input is a proxy for the distribution of
electricity generation across the evaluated EGUs.
20 Final Report: Engineering and Economic
Factors Affecting the Installation of Control
Technologies for Multipollutant Strategies
(‘‘Engineering and Economic Factors Report’’),
EPA–600/R–02/073, October 2002 (available at
https://nepis.epa.gov/Adobe/PDF/P1001G0O.pdf).
21 Engineering and Economic Factors Report,
Table 3–1.
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SCR or SNCR projects. Given that peak
demand and rule compliance would
both fall in the ozone-season, sources
would likely try to schedule installation
projects for the shoulder season (i.e., the
spring and/or fall when electricity
demand is lower than in the peak
summer season) when reserve margins
are higher and compliance requirements
are not yet in effect. If multiple units
were under the same timeline to
complete the retrofit projects as soon as
feasible from an engineering
perspective, this could lead to
bottlenecks of scheduled outages as
each unit is trying to start and finish in
roughly the same compressed time.
Thus, any compliance timeframe that
would assume installation of new SCR
or SNCR controls should allow multiple
shoulder seasons to accommodate
scheduling of curtailment for control
installation purposes and better
accommodate the regional nature of the
program.
In addition to the coordination of
scheduled curtailment, an appropriate
compliance timeframe should
accommodate the additional
coordination of labor and material
supply necessary for any fleet-wide
mitigation efforts. The total construction
labor for an SCR system associated with
a 500 megawatt (MW) EGU is in the
range of 300,000 to 500,000 man-hours,
with boilermakers22 accounting for
approximately half of this time.23 SNCR,
while generally having shorter project
time frames of 10 to 13 months from bid
solicitation to start-up, share similar
labor and material resources and
therefore are linked to the timing of SCR
installation planning. In recent industry
surveys, one of the largest shortages of
union craft workers was for
boilermakers. This shortage of skilled
boilermakers is expected to rise due to
an anticipated nine percent increase in
boilermaker labor demand growth by
2026, coupled with expected
retirements and comparatively low
numbers of apprentices joining the
workforce.24 The shortage of and
demand for skilled labor, including
other craft workers critical to pollution
control installation, is pronounced in
the manufacturing industry. The
Association of Union Constructors
(TAUC) conducted a survey of
22 A boilermaker is a trained and skilled
craftsman who produces steel fabrications (in this
context, boilers).
23 See Engineering and Economic Factors Report,
Table 3–1.
24 Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of
Labor, Occupational Outlook Handbook,
Boilermakers, on the internet at https://
www.bls.gov/ooh/construction-and-extraction/
boilermakers.htm (last modified on January 30,
2018).
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identified labor shortages where
boilermakers were second to most
frequently reported skilled labor market
with a labor shortage.25 Moreover, the
natural disasters of Hurricane Harvey
and wildfires in 2017 are expected to
further tighten the labor supply market
in manufacturing in the near term.26
EPA considered these tight labor market
conditions (which were compounded by
Hurricane Irma) for the manufacturing
roles critical, and combined with fleetlevel mitigation initiatives, would likely
lead to some sequencing and staging of
labor pool usage, rather than
simultaneous construction across all
efforts. Allowing a timeframe that
exceeds the demonstrated single-unit
installation is therefore appropriate for
fleet-wide programs.
In addition to labor supply, NOX postcombustion control projects also require
materials and equipment such as steel
and cranes. Sheet metal workers used in
steel production are also reported as
having well above an average supplyside shortage of labor. This—coupled
with growth in steel demand estimated
at three percent in 2018 and the
simultaneous growth in global
economies—puts upward pressure on
demand for steel.27 Similarly, cranes are
critical for installation of SCRs, which
often need to be lifted hundreds of feet
in the air. Cranes are also facing higher
demand during periods of economic
growth with companies reporting a
shortage in both equipment and
manpower.28 29 This tightening labor,
materials, and equipment atmosphere
combined with the regional aspect of a
pollution transportation program puts
upward pressure on installation
timetables relative to what has been
historically demonstrated at the unitlevel.
The time lag identified between
planning and in-service date of SCR and
SNCR operations also illustrates that
conditions sometimes lead to
25 Union Craft Labor Supply Survey, The
Association of Union Constructors, Exhibit 4–2 at
page 29, available at https://www.tauc.org/files/
2017_TAUC_UNION_CRAFT_LABOR_SUPPLY_
REVISEDBC_FINAL.pdf (2017).
26 Skilled Wage Growth Less Robust, Worker
Shortage Still and Issue. Industry Week (October 23,
2017), available at https://www.industryweek.com/
talent/skilled-wage-growth-less-robust-workershortage-still-issue.
27 Worldsteel Short Range Outlook (October 16,
2017), available at https://www.worldsteel.org/
media-centre/press-releases/2017/worldsteel-ShortRange-Outlook-2017-2018.html.
28 Seattle Has Most Cranes in the Country for 2nd
Year in a Row—and Lead is Growing, Seattle Times
(July 11, 2017), available at https://
www.seattletimes.com/business/real-estate/seattlehas-most-cranes-in-the-country-for-2nd-year-in-arow-and-lead-is-growing/.
29 See Rider Levett Bucknall Crane Index—
January 2018 in the docket for this rulemaking.
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installation times of 4 years or longer.
For instance, SCR projects for units at
Ottumwa, Columbia, and Oakley
Generating Station were all being
planned by 2014. However, these
projects had estimated in-service dates
ranging between 2018 and 2021.30
Completed projects, when large in scale,
also illustrate how timelines can extend
beyond the bare minimum necessary for
a single unit when the project is part of
a larger multi-unit air quality initiative.
For instance, Big Bend in Florida
recently completed a multi-faceted
project that involved adding SCRs to all
four units, converting furnaces, making
overfire air changes, and making
windbox modifications. The completion
time from the initial planning stages
was a decade.31
While individual unit-level SCR and
SNCR projects can average 39 and 10
months respectively going from bid to
start up, a comprehensive and regional
emissions reduction effort requires more
time to accommodate the labor,
materials, and outage coordination. And
since these post-combustion control
strategies share similar input resources
and are part of regional reduction
programs rather than unit-specific
technology mandates, the timeframes for
one are inherently linked to another.
This means that SNCR projects cannot
simply be put on an early schedule
because of the reduced construction
timing without impacting the available
resources to SCRs and the potential start
dates of those projects. Given the market
and regulatory circumstances in which
EPA evaluated this effort, it determined
that 4 years would be a reasonable time
to coordinate the planning and
completion of any mitigation efforts
necessary in this instance.
In the CSAPR Update, EPA also
evaluated the feasibility of NOX controls
on non-EGUs in the eastern United
States, finding that there was greater
uncertainty in the assessment of nonEGU point-source NOX mitigation
potential as compared to EGUs.32 EPA
explained in the CSAPR Update that
more time was required for states and
EPA to improve non-EGU point source
data, including data on existing control
efficiencies, additional applicable
pollution control technologies, and
installation times for those control
30 2014 EIA Form 860, Schedule 6, Environmental
Control Equipment.
31 Big Bend’s Multi-Unit SCR Retrofit. Power
Magazine. March 1, 2010. Available at https://
www.powermag.com/big-bends-multi-unit-scrretrofit/.
32 See Assessment of Non-EGU NO Emission
X
Controls, Cost of Controls, and Time for
Compliance Final TSD from the CSAPR Update in
the docket for this rulemaking.
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technologies. Further, using the best
information available to EPA, which
was submitted for public comment with
the proposed CSAPR Update, EPA
found that there were more non-EGU
point sources than EGU sources and that
these sources on average emit less NOX
than EGUs. The implication was that
there were more individual sources to
control and there were relatively fewer
emissions reductions available from
each source, reducing the costeffectiveness of controls. Further,
another factor influencing uncertainty
was that EPA lacks sufficient
information on the capacity and
experience of suppliers and major
engineering firms’ supply chains to
determine if they would be able to
install the required pollution controls
for non-EGU sources in less than 48
months. Considering these factors, EPA
found substantial uncertainty regarding
whether significant aggregate NOX
mitigation would be achievable from
non-EGU point sources to address the
2008 ozone NAAQS any earlier than the
timelines noted in EPA’s analysis of
new EGU post-combustion control
feasibility.
Finally, in the CSAPR Update, EPA
also identified one EGU NOX control
strategy that was considered feasible to
implement within one year but was not
cost-effective at a marginal cost of
$1,400 per ton of NOX removed:
Specifically, turning on existing idled
SNCRs. In the CSAPR Update, EPA
identified a marginal cost of $3,400 per
ton as the level of uniform control
stringency that represents turning on
and fully operating idled SNCRs.33
However, the CSAPR Update finalized
emission budgets using $1,400 per ton
control stringency, finding that this
level of stringency represented the
control level at which incremental EGU
NOX reductions and corresponding
downwind ozone air quality
improvements were maximized with
respect to marginal cost. In finding that
use of the $1,400 control cost level was
appropriate, EPA established that the
more stringent emission budget level
reflecting $3,400 per ton (representing
turning on idled SNCR) yielded fewer
additional emission reductions and
fewer air quality improvements relative
to the increase in control costs. In other
words, based on information available at
that time, establishing emission budgets
at $3,400 per ton was not determined to
be cost-effective for addressing good
neighbor provision obligations for the
2008 ozone NAAQS. 81 FR 74550 (Oct.
33 See EGU NO Mitigation Strategies Final Rule
X
TSD, docket ID EPA–HQ–OAR–2015–0500–0554,
available at www.regulations.gov.
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26, 2016). EPA believes that its
assessment of turning on and fully
operating SNCRs was appropriately
evaluated in the CSAPR Update with
respect to addressing interstate ozone
pollution transport for the 2008 ozone
NAAQS. Accordingly, in this proposal
EPA is not prioritizing the assessment of
this control strategy in terms of
identifying an appropriate future
analytic year.
For these reasons, EPA believes it is
appropriate to assume that planning for,
installing, and commencing operation of
new controls for both EGUs and nonEGUs would take up to 48 months
following promulgation of a final rule
requiring appropriate emission
reductions. Specifically, EPA believes
that it is reasonable to assume that the
installation of new post-combustion
controls for state- or regional-level fleets
of EGUs or controls for non-EGU point
sources may take up to 4 years following
promulgation of a final rule.34 For
purposes of conducting updated
modeling to determine in what year
future emissions reductions might be
implemented, EPA, therefore,
considered the timeframe in which a
future rulemaking that might require
such emissions reductions would likely
be finalized. While EPA is subject to
several statutory and court-ordered
deadlines to address the requirements of
the good neighbor provision for the
2008 ozone NAAQS, EPA does not
believe that it is feasible, at this point,
to finalize action requiring emission
reductions for any state prior to the start
of the 2018 ozone season (i.e., May 1,
2018).35 Accordingly, implementation
of any of the control strategies
considered herein is likely not feasible
until during or after the 2022 ozone
season. Considering the time to
implement the controls with the time to
promulgate a final rule, EPA believes
that such reductions are unlikely to be
implemented for a full ozone season
until 2023.
While 2023 is later than the next
attainment date for nonattainment areas
classified as Serious (July 20, 2021), as
explained earlier, EPA does not believe
it is likely that emissions control
requirements could be promulgated and
implemented by the serious area
attainment date. Likewise, EPA also
34 See
81 FR 74562 (October 26, 2016).
the 2023 analytic year also allowed EPA
to begin the updated analysis using the data sets
originally developed for the January 2017 NODA
(82 FR 1733, January 6, 2017), which we revised in
response to stakeholder feedback. Accordingly, EPA
initiated its analysis more quickly than if a different
year had been chosen, which might have delayed
subsequent rulemaking actions and therefore
emissions reductions.
35 Using
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believes that it would not be reasonable
to assume that emissions reductions
could be postponed to the attainment
date for nonattainment areas classified
as severe (July 20, 2027) because the
statute instructs states to attain the
NAAQS as expeditiously as practicable.
Accordingly, EPA believes
implementation of additional emission
reductions would be as expeditiously as
practicable in light of relevant
attainment dates.
In conclusion, in selecting its future
analytic year for the air quality
modeling, EPA balanced considerations
such as attainment dates in downwind
states, including the obligation to attain
as expeditiously as practicable, EPA’s
obligation to avoid unnecessary overcontrol of upwind state emissions, the
timeframe in which any necessary
emissions reductions could be feasibly
implemented, and the timeframe
required for rulemaking to impose any
such emissions reductions that might be
required. In light of these
considerations, EPA believes that 2023
is a reasonable year to assess downwind
air quality to evaluate any remaining
requirements under the good neighbor
provision for the 2008 ozone NAAQS.
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B. EPA’s Air Quality Modeling
EPA used the Comprehensive Air
Quality Model with Extensions (CAMx
v6.40) 36 for modeling the updated
emissions in 2011 and 2023.37 EPA used
outputs from the 2011 and 2023 model
simulations to project base period 2009–
2013 average and maximum ozone
design values to 2023 at monitoring
sites nationwide. EPA’s modeling
guidance 38 recommends that model
predictions from the ‘‘3 x 3’’ array of
grid cells surrounding the location of
the monitoring site be used in the
36 CAMx v6.40 was the most recent public release
version of CAMx at the time EPA updated its
modeling in Fall 2017. Comprehensive Air Quality
Model with Extension version 6.40 User’s Guide,’’
Ramboll Environ, December 2016, available at
https://www.camx.com/. For the emissions
information, see TSD: Additional Updates to
Emissions Inventories for the Version 6.3, 2011
Emissions Modeling Platform for the Year 2023,
October 2017. Available at https://www.epa.gov/airemissions-modeling/2011-version-63-platform.
37 For the updated modeling, EPA used the
construct of the modeling platform (i.e., modeling
domain and non-emissions inputs) that we used for
the NODA modeling, except that the photolysis
rates files were updated to be consistent with CAMx
v6.40. The NODA Air Quality Modeling Technical
Support Document describing the modeling
platform is available at https://www.epa.gov/
airmarkets/notice-data-availability-preliminaryinterstate-ozone-transport-modeling-data-2015ozone.
38 Draft Modeling Guidance for Demonstrating
Attainment of Air Quality Goals for Ozone, PM2s,
and Regional Haze (Dec. 13, 2014), available at
https://www.epa.gov/ttn/scram/guidance/guide/
Draft_O3-PM-RH_Modeling_Guidance-2014.pdf.
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projection of future year design values.
EPA used this approach for projecting
design values for the updated 2023
modeling. In addition, in light of
comments on the January 2017 NODA
and other analyses, EPA also projected
2023 design values based on a modified
version of this approach for those
monitoring sites located in coastal areas.
In brief, in the alternative approach,
EPA eliminated from the design value
calculations those modeling data in grid
cells not containing a monitoring site
that are dominated by water (i.e., more
than 50 percent of the land use in the
grid cell is water).39 40
When identifying areas with potential
downwind air quality problems, EPA’s
updated modeling used the same
‘‘receptor’’ definitions as those
developed during the CSAPR
rulemaking process and used in the
CSAPR Update.41 That is, EPA
identified nonattainment receptors as
those monitoring sites with current
measured values exceeding the NAAQS
that also have projected (i.e., in 2023)
average design values exceeding the
NAAQS. EPA identified maintenance
receptors as those monitoring sites with
current measured values below the
NAAQS and projected average and
maximum design values exceeding the
NAAQS. EPA also identified as
maintenance receptors those monitoring
sites with projected average design
values below the NAAQS but with
projected maximum design values
exceeding the NAAQS. As with past
application of receptor definitions, EPA
considered all nonattainment receptors
to also be maintenance receptors
because a monitoring site with a
projected average design value above
the standard necessarily also has a
projected maximum design value above
the standard.
EPA’s 2023 updated modeling, using
either the ‘‘3 x 3’’ approach or the
alternative approach described above for
projecting design values for monitoring
sites in coastal areas, indicates that
there are no monitoring sites outside of
California that are projected to have
39 A model grid cell is identified as a ‘‘water’’ cell
if more than 50 percent of the grid cell is water
based on the 2006 National Land Cover Database.
Grid cells that meet this criterion are treated as
entirely over water in the Weather Research
Forecast (WRF) modeling used to develop the 2011
meteorology for EPA’s air quality modeling.
40 The base period and 2023 average and
maximum design values at individual monitoring
sites for both the ‘‘3 x 3’’ approach and the
alternative approach affecting coastal sites are
available in a file at https://www.epa.gov/
airmarkets/october-2017-memo-and-informationinterstate-transport-sips-2008-ozone-naaqs. This
file also contains 2014–2016 measured design
values.
41 See 81 FR 74530 (October 26, 2016).
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nonattainment or maintenance problems
with respect to the 2008 ozone NAAQS
in 2023.42 Specifically for Kentucky,
EPA’s modeling for the CSAPR Update
showed that emissions from Kentucky
were linked to 2017 maintenance
receptors in Harford Co., MD, Hamilton
Co., OH, Philadelphia Co., PA, and
Richmond Co., NY. As indicated above,
EPA’s updated 2023 modeling shows
that these monitoring sites—along with
all other sites outside of California—will
have nonattainment and/or maintenance
problems resolved with respect to the
2008 ozone NAAQS in 2023.
C. Conclusions
As discussed above, Kentucky’s draft
submission demonstrates that emission
activities from the State will not
contribute significantly to
nonattainment or interfere with
maintenance of the 2008 8-hour ozone
NAAQS in any other state after
implementation of all on-the-books
measures, including the CSAPR Update.
EPA’s modeling indicates that there are
no monitoring sites (outside of
California) that are projected to have
nonattainment or maintenance problems
with respect to the 2008 ozone NAAQS
in 2023, and EPA’s analysis supports
the use of 2023 as the proper analytic
year. Kentucky has provided
information that shows the use of this
modeling is appropriate in this context,
such as emissions trends data and
information about on-the-books controls
that supports the likelihood of reduced
emissions from Kentucky between 2017
and 2023. For example, Kentucky’s
submission notes that retirements of
coal-fired units at the E.W. Brown
Generating Station and the Elmer Smith
Plant are planned to occur before 2023,
which means that emissions of NOX
from Kentucky sources will be even
lower than EPA’s modeling projects. In
addition, Kentucky’s draft submission
contains air quality modeling conducted
by Alpine Geophysics, LLC, that
similarly concludes that none of the
nonattainment and maintenance
receptors identified in the CSAPR
Update are predicted to be in
nonattainment or have issues with
maintenance in 2023.
Because Kentucky is not linked to any
downwind nonattainment or
maintenance receptors in 2023, EPA is
proposing to approve Kentucky’s draft
SIP submission and to determine that—
after implementation of all on-the-books
measures, including the CSAPR
42 This information is available at https://
www.epa.gov/airmarkets/october-2017-memo-andinformation-interstate-transport-sips-2008-ozonenaaqs.
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Update—emissions from the
Commonwealth will no longer
contribute significantly to
nonattainment or interfere with
maintenance of the 2008 8-hour ozone
NAAQS in any other state.HD1P≤IV.
Parallel Processing
Parallel processing refers to a
concurrent state and federal proposed
rulemaking action. Generally, the state
submits a copy of the proposed
regulation or other revisions to EPA
before conducting its public hearing.
EPA reviews this proposed state action,
and prepares a notice of proposed
rulemaking. EPA’s notice of proposed
rulemaking is published in the Federal
Register during the same timeframe that
the state is holding its public hearing.
The state and EPA then provide for
concurrent public comment periods on
both the state action and federal action,
respectively. If the state’s formal SIP
revision is changed from the draft SIP
revision, EPA will evaluate those
changes and may publish another notice
of proposed rulemaking. A final
rulemaking action by EPA will occur
only after the SIP revision has been
adopted by Kentucky and submitted
formally to EPA for incorporation into
the SIP.
The Commonwealth of Kentucky,
through the Kentucky Division for Air
Quality (DAQ), requested parallel
processing of the February 28, 2018
draft SIP revision regarding the ‘‘good
neighbor’’ provision of the CAA. This
revision was noticed for public
comment by the Commonwealth on
March 1, 2018, and is not yet stateeffective. Through this proposed
rulemaking, EPA is proposing parallel
approval of this draft SIP revision.
Once the February 28, 2018, draft
revision is state-effective, Kentucky will
need to provide EPA with a formal SIP
revision that meets the requirements
outlined in 40 CFR part 51 Appendix V
‘‘Criteria for Determining the
Completeness of Plan Submissions.’’
After Kentucky submits the formal SIP
revision (including a response to any
public comments raised during the
State’s public participation process),
EPA will evaluate the revision. If the
formal SIP revision is changed from the
draft SIP revision, EPA will evaluate
those changes for significance. If any
such changes are found by EPA to be
significant, then the Agency intends to
re-propose the action based upon the
revised submission.
While EPA may not be able to have
a concurrent public comment process
with the Commonwealth, the DAQrequested parallel processing allows
EPA to begin to take action on the
Commonwealth’s draft SIP submission
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in advance of the formal SIP
submission. As stated above, the final
rulemaking action by EPA will occur
only after the SIP submission has been:
(1) Adopted by Kentucky; (2) submitted
formally to EPA for incorporation into
the SIP; and (3) evaluated for changes.
V. EPA’s Proposed Action
EPA is proposing to approve
Kentucky’s February 28, 2018, draft SIP
submission and to find that Kentucky is
not required to make any further
reductions, beyond those required by
the CSAPR Update, to address its
statutory obligation under CAA section
110(a)(2)(D)(i)(I) for the 2008 8-hour
ozone NAAQS. If EPA finalizes
approval of this draft submission,
Kentucky’s obligations under
110(a)(2)(d)(i)(I) will be fully addressed
through the combination of the CSAPR
Update FIP and the demonstration
showing that no further reductions are
necessary. As a result, EPA is also
proposing to amend the regulatory text
at 40 CFR 52.940(b)(2) to reflect that the
CSAPR Update represents a full remedy
with respect to Kentucky’s transport
obligation for the 2008 ozone NAAQS.
EPA requests comment on this proposed
action.
EPA’s proposed approval is
contingent on Kentucky’s submission of
a final SIP revision that does not differ
significantly from the February 28, 2018
draft. Should Kentucky not submit such
a final SIP revision to EPA or should
EPA not be able to approve a final
revision, EPA will undertake further
action to address any outstanding
obligations that Kentucky may have
under 110(a)(2)(D)(i)(I) for the 2008
ozone NAAQS. The Agency has made
the preliminary determination that this
proposed action is consistent with the
CAA.
VI. Statutory and Executive Order
Reviews
Under the CAA, the Administrator is
required to approve a SIP submission
that complies with the provisions of the
Act and applicable Federal regulations.
See 42 U.S.C. 7410(k); 40 CFR 52.02(a).
Thus, in reviewing SIP submissions,
EPA’s role is to approve state choices,
provided that they meet the criteria of
the CAA. This action merely proposes to
approve state law as meeting Federal
requirements and does not impose
additional requirements beyond those
imposed by state law. For that reason,
this proposed action:
• Is not a significant regulatory action
subject to review by the Office of
Management and Budget under
Executive Orders 12866 (58 FR 51735,
PO 00000
Frm 00014
Fmt 4702
Sfmt 4702
October 4, 1993) and 13563 (76 FR 3821,
January 21, 2011);
• Is not an Executive Order 13771 (82
FR 9339, February 2, 2017) regulatory
action because SIP approvals are
exempted under Executive Order 12866;
• Does not impose an information
collection burden under the provisions
of the Paperwork Reduction Act (44
U.S.C. 3501 et seq.);
• Is certified as not having a
significant economic impact on a
substantial number of small entities
under the Regulatory Flexibility Act (5
U.S.C. 601 et seq.);
• Does not contain any unfunded
mandate or significantly or uniquely
affect small governments, as described
in the Unfunded Mandates Reform Act
of 1995 (Pub. L. 104–4);
• Does not have Federalism
implications as specified in Executive
Order 13132 (64 FR 43255, August 10,
1999);
• Is not an economically significant
regulatory action based on health or
safety risks subject to Executive Order
13045 (62 FR 19885, April 23, 1997);
• Is not a significant regulatory action
subject to Executive Order 13211 (66 FR
28355, May 22, 2001);
• Is not subject to requirements of
Section 12(d) of the National
Technology Transfer and Advancement
Act of 1995 (15 U.S.C. 272 note) because
application of those requirements would
be inconsistent with the CAA; and
• Does not provide EPA with the
discretionary authority to address, as
appropriate, disproportionate human
health or environmental effects, using
practicable and legally permissible
methods, under Executive Order 12898
(59 FR 7629, February 16, 1994).
The SIP is not approved to apply on
any Indian reservation land or in any
other area where EPA or an Indian tribe
has demonstrated that a tribe has
jurisdiction. In those areas of Indian
country, the rule does not have tribal
implications as specified by Executive
Order 13175 (65 FR 67249, November 9,
2000), nor will it impose substantial
direct costs on tribal governments or
preempt tribal law.
List of Subjects in 40 CFR Part 52
Environmental protection,
Administrative practice and procedure,
Air pollution control, Incorporation by
reference, Intergovernmental relations,
Nitrogen dioxide, Ozone,, Reporting and
recordkeeping requirements.
Authority: 42 U.S.C. 7401 et seq.
E:\FR\FM\18APP1.SGM
18APP1
Federal Register / Vol. 83, No. 75 / Wednesday, April 18, 2018 / Proposed Rules
Dated: April 9. 2018.
Onis ‘‘Trey’’ Glenn, III,
Regional Administrator, Region 4.
[FR Doc. 2018–08137 Filed 4–17–18; 8:45 am]
BILLING CODE 6560–50–P
FEDERAL COMMUNICATIONS
COMMISSION
47 CFR Part 20
[WT Docket No. 10–4; FCC 18–35]
Improvement of Wireless Coverage
Through the Use of Signal Boosters
Federal Communications
Commission.
ACTION: Proposed rule.
AGENCY:
In this document, the Federal
Communications Commission proposes
additional steps to enhance the
usefulness of signal boosters in
improving access to wireless service
while continuing to guard against
unacceptable interference to the
operations of wireless providers. The
proposals are intended to extend
additional benefits to users of both
Provider-Specific and Wideband
Consumer Signal Boosters. Thus, the
Commission proposes to expand the
service bands on which all Consumer
Signal Boosters may operate, develop
consumer advisory requirements
suitable for any embedded Consumer
Signal Boosters (whether ProviderSpecific or Wideband), and facilitate
enterprise use of both Provider-Specific
Consumer Signal Boosters and
Wideband Consumer Signal Boosters.
DATES: Interested parties may file
comments on or before May 18, 2018,
and reply comments on or before June
18, 2018.
ADDRESSES: You may submit comments,
identified by WT Docket No. 10–4, by
any of the following methods:
• Electronic Filers: Comments may be
filed electronically using the internet by
accessing the Commission’s Electronic
Comment Filing System (ECFS): https://
fjallfoss.fcc.gov/ecfs2/. See Electronic
Filing of Documents in Rulemaking
Proceedings, 63 FR 24121 (1998).
• Paper Filers: Parties who choose to
file by paper must file an original and
one copy of each filing. Generally, if
more than one docket or rulemaking
number appears in the caption of this
proceeding, filers must submit two
additional copies for each additional
docket or rulemaking number.
• Filings can be sent by hand or
messenger delivery, by commercial
overnight courier, or by first-class or
overnight U.S. Postal Service mail. All
amozie on DSK30RV082PROD with PROPOSALS
SUMMARY:
VerDate Sep<11>2014
17:05 Apr 17, 2018
Jkt 244001
filings must be addressed to the
Commission’s Secretary, Office of the
Secretary, Federal Communications
Commission.
• All hand-delivered or messengerdelivered paper filings for the
Commission’s Secretary must be
delivered to FCC Headquarters at 445
12th St. SW, Room TW–A325,
Washington, DC 20554. The filing hours
are 8:00 a.m. to 7:00 p.m. All hand
deliveries must be held together with
rubber bands or fasteners. Any
envelopes and boxes must be disposed
of before entering the building.
• Commercial overnight mail (other
than U.S. Postal Service Express Mail
and Priority Mail) must be sent to 9300
East Hampton Drive, Capitol Heights,
MD 20743.
• U.S. Postal Service first-class,
Express, and Priority mail must be
addressed to 445 12th Street SW,
Washington DC 20554.
People with Disabilities: To request
materials in accessible formats for
people with disabilities (Braille, large
print, electronic files, audio format),
send an email to fcc504@fcc.gov or call
the Consumer & Governmental Affairs
Bureau at 202–418–0530 (voice), 202–
418–0432 (TTY).
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT:
Amanda Huetinck at
Amanda.huetinck@fcc.gov, of the
Wireless Telecommunications Bureau,
Mobility Division, (202) 418–7090. For
additional information concerning the
PRA information collection
requirements contained in this
document, contact Cathy Williams at
(202) 418–2918 or send an email to
PRA@fcc.gov.
This is a
summary of the Commission’s Second
Further Notice of Proposed Rulemaking
(Second Further Notice) in WT Docket
No. 10–4, FCC 18–35, released on March
23, 2018. The complete text of the
Second Further Notice, including all
Appendices, is available for inspection
and copying during normal business
hours in the FCC Reference Center, 445
12th Street SW, Room CY–A157,
Washington, DC 20554, or by
downloading the text from the
Commission’s website at https://
apps.fcc.gov/edocs_public/attachmatch/
FCC-18-35A1.pdf.
Alternative formats are available for
people with disabilities (Braille, large
print, electronic files, audio format), by
sending an email to FCC504@fcc.gov or
calling the Consumer and Government
Affairs Bureau at (202) 418–0530
(voice), (202) 418–0432 (TTY).
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION:
PO 00000
Frm 00015
Fmt 4702
Sfmt 4702
17131
I. Second Further Notice
A. Additional Spectrum Bands
1. In the Report and Order, adopted
on February 20, 2013 (WT Docket No.
10–4) (Report and Order), the
Commission authorized the use of
Consumer Signal Boosters in the
wireless radio service spectrum bands
that were being used for the provision
of commercial wireless services at the
time: Cellular (824–849 MHz and 869–
894 MHz), Broadband PCS (1850–1915
MHz and 1930–1995 MHz), AWS–1
(1710–1755 MHz and 2110–2155 MHz),
700 MHz Lower A through E (698–746
MHz) and Upper C (746–757 MHz and
776–787 MHz) Blocks, and 800 MHz
Enhanced Specialized Mobile Radio
(ESMR) (817–824 MHz and 862–869
MHz). Recognizing that ‘‘subscriberbased services may be offered in
additional bands in the future,’’ the
Commission also stated that, ‘‘[a]s
consumer demand for signal boosters in
these bands arises,’’ it would seek
comment on ‘‘how best to expand our
signal booster framework to
accommodate such additional bands.’’
2. To ensure that Consumer Signal
Boosters continue to meet the needs of
American telecommunications users, no
matter what type of mobile device they
use or on what band(s) that device
operates, the Commission seeks
comment on whether and how the
Commission can expand the number of
spectrum bands for which Consumer
Signal Boosters are authorized. The
Commission specifically seeks comment
on whether to permit the operation of
Consumer Signal Boosters in certain
additional wireless radio service
spectrum bands and how its technical
rules would need to be amended to
accommodate the additional bands.
3. In determining which, if any, new
bands are appropriate for use with
Consumer Signal Boosters, the
Commission considers: (1) Whether the
band is used to provide services to
consumers or other non-licensee users
such as public safety responders
(assuming they are using commercial
spectrum rather than spectrum
specifically designated for public
safety); (2) whether a meaningful
number of the licensees in the band will
consent to Consumer Signal Booster
operation; (3) the impact of other
technologies and operations both within
the band and in adjacent bands and
whether Consumer Signal Booster
operation would harm other users
within the band or in adjacent bands
(and vice versa); and (4) whether the
current technical rules for signal
boosters must be adjusted to
E:\FR\FM\18APP1.SGM
18APP1
Agencies
[Federal Register Volume 83, Number 75 (Wednesday, April 18, 2018)]
[Proposed Rules]
[Pages 17123-17131]
From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office [www.gpo.gov]
[FR Doc No: 2018-08137]
=======================================================================
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
40 CFR Part 52
[EPA-R04-OAR-2018-0142; FRL-9976-96--Region 4]
Air Plan Approval; Kentucky; 2008 Ozone NAAQS Interstate
Transport SIP Requirements
AGENCY: Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).
ACTION: Proposed rule.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
SUMMARY: The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is proposing to
approve Kentucky's February 28, 2018, draft State Implementation Plan
(SIP) submission pertaining to the ``good neighbor'' provision of the
Clean Air Act (CAA or Act) for the 2008 8-hour ozone National Ambient
Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) that was submitted by Kentucky for
parallel processing. The good neighbor provision requires each state's
SIP to address the interstate transport of air pollution in amounts
that contribute significantly to nonattainment, or interfere with
maintenance, of a NAAQS in any other state. In this action, EPA is
proposing to approve Kentucky's draft submission demonstrating that no
additional emission reductions are necessary to address the good
neighbor provision for the 2008 ozone NAAQS beyond those required by
the Cross-State Air Pollution Rule Update (CSAPR Update) federal
implementation plan (FIP). Accordingly, EPA is proposing to approve
Kentucky's draft submission as partially addressing the requirements of
the good neighbor provision for the 2008 ozone NAAQS, and resolving any
obligation remaining under the good neighbor provision after
promulgation of the CSAPR Update FIP. EPA is proposing this action
because it is consistent with the CAA.
DATES: Comments must be received on or before May 18, 2018.
ADDRESSES: Submit your comments, identified by Docket ID No. at EPA-
R04-OAR-2018-0142 https://www.regulations.gov. Follow the online
instructions for submitting comments. Once submitted, comments cannot
be edited or removed from Regulations.gov. EPA may publish any comment
received to its public docket. Do not submit electronically any
information you consider to be Confidential Business Information (CBI)
or other information whose disclosure is restricted by statute.
Multimedia submissions (audio, video, etc.) must be accompanied by a
written comment. The written comment is considered the official comment
and should include discussion of all points you wish to make. EPA will
generally not consider comments or comment contents located outside of
the primary submission (i.e., on the web, cloud, or other file sharing
system). For additional submission methods, the full EPA public comment
policy, information about CBI or multimedia submissions, and general
guidance on making effective comments, please visit https://www2.epa.gov/dockets/commenting-epa-dockets.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Ashten Bailey, Air Regulatory
Management Section, Air Planning and Implementation Branch, Air,
Pesticides and Toxics Management Division, U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency, Region 4, 61 Forsyth Street SW, Atlanta, Georgia
30303-8960. Ms. Bailey can be reached by telephone at (404) 562-9164 or
via electronic mail at [email protected].
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION:
I. Background
On March 27, 2008 (73 FR 16436), EPA promulgated an ozone NAAQS
that revised the levels of the primary and secondary 8-hour ozone
standards from 0.08 parts per million (ppm) to 0.075 ppm. Pursuant to
CAA section 110(a)(1), within three years after promulgation of a new
or revised NAAQS (or shorter, if EPA prescribes), states must submit
SIPs that meet the applicable requirements of section 110(a)(2). EPA
has historically referred to these SIP submissions made for the purpose
of satisfying the requirements of sections 110(a)(1) and 110(a)(2) as
``infrastructure SIP'' submissions. One of the structural requirements
of section 110(a)(2) is section 110(a)(2)(D)(i), also known as the
``good neighbor'' provision, which generally requires SIPs to contain
adequate provisions to prohibit in-state emissions activities from
having certain adverse air quality effects on neighboring states due to
interstate transport of air pollution. There are four sub-elements, or
``prongs,'' within section 110(a)(2)(D)(i) of the CAA. CAA section
110(a)(2)(D)(i)(I) requires SIPs to include provisions prohibiting any
source or other type of emissions activity in one state from emitting
any air pollutant in amounts that will
[[Page 17124]]
contribute significantly to nonattainment, or interfere with
maintenance, of the NAAQS in another state. The two provisions of this
section are referred to as prong 1 (significant contribution to
nonattainment) and prong 2 (interference with maintenance). Section
110(a)(2)(D)(i)(II) requires SIPs to contain adequate provisions to
prohibit emissions that will interfere with measures required to be
included in the applicable implementation plan for any other state
under part C to prevent significant deterioration of air quality (prong
3) or to protect visibility (prong 4). This proposed action addresses
only prongs 1 and 2 of section 110(a)(2)(D)(i).\1\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\1\ All other infrastructure SIP elements for Kentucky for the
2008 8-hour ozone NAAQS were addressed in separate rulemakings. See
78 FR 14681 (March 7, 2013) and 79 FR 65143 (November 3, 2014).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
On July 17, 2012, Kentucky submitted a SIP submission to EPA,
addressing a number of the CAA requirements for the 2008 8-hour ozone
NAAQS infrastructure SIPs. With respect to the interstate transport
requirements of 110(a)(2)(D)(i)(I), EPA disapproved the submission,
effective April 8, 2013 (78 FR 14681). In the notice, EPA explained
that the disapproval of the good neighbor portion of the Commonwealth's
infrastructure SIP submission did not trigger a mandatory duty for EPA
to promulgate a FIP to address these requirements. Id. at 14683. Citing
the D.C. Circuit's decision EME Homer City Generation, L.P. v. EPA, 696
F.3d 7, 41 (D.C. Cir. 2012) (EME Homer City I), EPA explained that the
court concluded states have no obligation to make a SIP submission to
address the good neighbor provision for a new or revised NAAQS until
EPA first defines a state's obligations pursuant to that section.
Therefore, because a good neighbor SIP addressing the 2008 ozone
standard was not at that time required, EPA indicated that its
disapproval action would not trigger an obligation for EPA to
promulgate a FIP to address the interstate transport requirements. On
April 29, 2014, the Supreme Court issued a decision reversing and
vacating the D.C. Circuit's decision in EME Homer City I. EPA v. EME
Homer City Generation, L.P., 133 S. Ct. 2857 (2013). EPA subsequently
finalized a determination that the FIP obligation was triggered on the
date of the judgment issued in EPA v. EME Homer City Generation, or on
June 2, 2014. See 81 FR 74504, 74513 (October 26, 2016).\2\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\2\ On April 30, 2013, Sierra Club filed a petition for review
of EPA's final action disapproving Kentucky's good neighbor SIP in
the Sixth Circuit based on the Agency's conclusion that the FIP
obligation was not triggered by the disapproval of Kentucky's good
neighbor SIP. Sierra Club v. EPA, Case No. 13-3546 (6th Cir., filed
Apr. 30, 2013). Following the Supreme Court decision, EPA requested,
and the Sixth Circuit granted, vacatur and remand of the portion of
EPA's final action on Kentucky's good neighbor SIP that determined
that the FIP obligation was not triggered by the disapproval. See
Order, Sierra Club v. EPA, Case No. 13-3546 (Mar. 13, 2015), ECF No.
74-1. On October 24, 2016 (81 FR 74513), EPA issued a final action
correcting the portion of the Kentucky disapproval notice indicating
that the FIP obligation would not be triggered by the SIP
disapproval, but rather on the date of the Supreme Court's judgment.
EPA explained that the FIP obligation was not triggered as of the
date of the SIP disapproval because the controlling law as of that
date was the DC Circuit decision in EME Homer City I, which held
that states had no obligation to submit a SIP and EPA had no
authority to issue a FIP until EPA first quantified each state's
emission reduction obligation under the good neighbor provision.
Rather, EPA concluded that the FIP obligation was triggered when the
Supreme Court clarified the state and federal obligations with
respect to the good neighbor provision.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
In October 2016, EPA promulgated the CSAPR Update to address the
requirements of CAA section 110(a)(2)(D)(i)(I) concerning interstate
transport of air pollution for the 2008 ozone NAAQS. See 81 FR 74504
(October 26, 2016). In the CSAPR Update rulemaking, EPA determined that
air pollution transported from Kentucky would unlawfully affect other
states' ability to attain or maintain the 2008 8-hour ozone NAAQS and
established an ozone season nitrogen oxide (NOX) budget for
Kentucky's electricity generating units (EGUs).\3\ In particular, EPA
found that Kentucky was linked to four maintenance-only receptors in
Harford County, Maryland; Richmond County, New York; Hamilton County,
Ohio; and Philadelphia County, Pennsylvania. Kentucky EGUs meeting the
CSAPR applicability criteria are consequently subject to CSAPR FIPs
that require participation in the CSAPR NOX Annual Trading
Program, the CSAPR sulfur dioxide (SO2) Group 1 Trading
Program, and the CSAPR NOX Ozone Season Group 2 Trading
Program.\4\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\3\ CSAPR Update, 81 FR at 74507-08.
\4\ 40 CFR 52.38(a)(2)(i), (b)(2), (b)(2)(iii); 52.39(b);
52.940(a), (b); 52.941(a).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
In the CSAPR Update, EPA found that the CSAPR FIP for Kentucky and
20 other states may provide only a partial remedy with respect to the
good neighbor provision requirements as to the 2008 8-hour ozone NAAQS.
EPA's analysis showed persisting downwind air quality problems after
implementation of the CSAPR Update in 2017, including two of the
receptors to which Kentucky was linked in Harford County, Maryland, and
Richmond County, New York. Because EPA's analysis showed persisting
downwind air quality problems and did not assess available emissions
reductions after 2017, EPA could not definitively conclude, without
further analysis, that the CSAPR Update fully addressed the
requirements of the good neighbor provision in upwind states, including
Kentucky. See 81 FR at 74521.
On October 27, 2017, EPA issued a memorandum \5\ with technical
information and related analyses to assist states with developing SIPs
to address the remaining section 110(a)(2)(D)(i)(I) requirements for
the 2008 8-hour ozone NAAQS. In the technical analysis related to the
October 2017 Transport Memo, EPA used detailed air quality analyses to
identify locations in the U.S. where EPA anticipates there will be
nonattainment or maintenance problems for the 2008 8-hour ozone NAAQS
in the year 2023 (these are identified as nonattainment or maintenance
receptors, respectively). This analysis used the Comprehensive Air
Quality Model with Extensions (CAMx version 6.40) \6\ to model the 2011
base year, and 2023 future base case emissions scenarios to identify
projected nonattainment and maintenance sites with respect to the 2008
8-hour ozone NAAQS.\7\ The updated modeling data released with the
October 2017 Transport Memo is the most up-to-date information EPA has
developed to inform the Agency's analysis of downwind air quality
problems for the 2008 8-hour ozone NAAQS.\8\ EPA's updated modeling for
the 2023 future base case emissions scenarios indicates that there are
no monitoring sites, outside of California, that are projected to have
nonattainment or maintenance problems with respect to the 2008 ozone
NAAQS in 2023.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\5\ Memorandum, Stephen D. Page, Supplemental Information on the
Interstate Transport State Implementation Plan Submissions for the
2008 Ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standards under Clean Air
Action Section 110(a)(2)(D)(i)(I) (October 2017 Transport Memo).
\6\ CAMx v6.40 was the most recent public release version of
CAMx at the time EPA updated its modeling in fall 2017.
``Comprehensive Air Quality Model with Extensions version 6.40
User's Guide'' Ramboll Environ, December 2016. https://www.camx.com/.
\7\ For the updated modeling, EPA used the construct of the
modeling platform (i.e., modeling domain and non-emissions inputs)
that we used for the Notice of Data Availability (NODA) modeling,
except that the photolysis rates files were updated to be consistent
with CAMx v6.40. The NODA Air Quality Modeling Technical Support
Document describing the modeling platform is available at https://www.epa.gov/airmarkets/notice-data-availability-preliminary-interstate-ozone-transport-modeling-data-2015-ozone.
\8\ October 2017 Transport Memo.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
[[Page 17125]]
II. Kentucky's Draft SIP Submission
On February 28, 2018, Kentucky provided a draft SIP submission to
address the remaining interstate transport obligations for the 2008 8-
hour ozone NAAQS, which contains a demonstration \9\ that the emission
reductions required by the CSAPR Update are adequate to prohibit
emissions within Kentucky from significantly contributing to
nonattainment, or interfering with the maintenance, of downwind states
with respect to the 2008 ozone NAAQS. This demonstration shows that,
based on the Commonwealth's current and projected emissions, air
quality modeling data, and on-the-books state and federal measures
reducing ozone precursor emissions, including the CSAPR Update FIP,
emissions from Kentucky will not significantly contribute to
nonattainment, or interfere with the maintenance, of downwind states
with respect to the 2008 ozone NAAQS in 2023.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\9\ As discussed above, EPA previously disapproved the portion
of the Kentucky's July 17, 2012, SIP submission as it related to
prongs 1 and 2. See 78 FR 14681 (March 7, 2013).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
In its February 28, 2018, draft submission, Kentucky reviewed air
quality modeling and data files that EPA disseminated in the October
2017 Transport Memo, which indicated that the air quality problems at
monitors to which Kentucky was linked in the CSAPR Update would be
resolved in 2023. Kentucky's draft SIP submission agrees with the
October 2017 Transport Memo's preliminary projections, and provides
information intended to demonstrate that use of the modeling is
appropriate. In addition, the draft submission contains air quality
modeling conducted by Alpine Geophysics, LLC, that concludes that none
of the nonattainment and maintenance receptors identified in the CSAPR
Update are predicted to be in nonattainment or have issues with
maintenance in 2023. Additionally, Kentucky cites information related
to emissions trends--such as reductions in ozone precursor emissions
and controls on Kentucky sources--as further evidence that, after
implementation of all on-the-books measures including those identified
in the CSAPR Update, emissions from the Commonwealth will no longer
contribute significantly to nonattainment or interfere with maintenance
of the 2008 8-hour ozone NAAQS in any other state.
Kentucky requests that EPA approve the draft SIP submission and
find that Kentucky is not required to make any further reductions,
beyond those required by the CSAPR Update, to address its statutory
obligation under CAA section 110(a)(2)(D)(i)(I) for the 2008 ozone
NAAQS.\10\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\10\ EPA is parallel processing Kentucky's draft SIP submittal.
As discussed in more detail in Section IV, below, final approval of
Kentucky's submission is contingent on Kentucky's submission of a
final SIP submittal that does not differ significantly from the
draft.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
III. EPA's Analysis of Kentucky's Draft Submission
In Kentucky's draft submission, the Commonwealth relies on modeling
performed by EPA, which was summarized in the October 2017 Transport
Memo, in support of its conclusion that the emissions reductions
required by the CSAPR Update are adequate to prohibit emissions within
Kentucky from significantly contributing to nonattainment, or
interfering with the maintenance, of downwind states with respect to
the 2008 ozone NAAQS. Accordingly, before undertaking the specific
analysis of Kentucky's SIP submittal, it is helpful to understand how
EPA developed the October 2017 Transport Memorandum. EPA applied the
same four-step framework used in previous federal regulatory actions
addressing interstate transport of ozone pollution, including most
recently the CSAPR Update. While some aspects of these previous
regulatory actions have been challenged in court--and some aspects of
these challenges have been upheld--each of these rulemakings
essentially followed the same four-step interstate transport framework
to quantify and implement emission reductions necessary to address the
interstate transport requirements of the good neighbor provision. These
steps are described in the following four paragraphs.
(1) Identifying downwind air quality problems relative to the 2008
ozone NAAQS. EPA has historically identified downwind areas with air
quality problems considering monitored ozone data where appropriate and
air quality modeling projections to a future compliance year. In the
CSAPR Update, the Agency identified not only those areas expected to be
in nonattainment with the ozone NAAQS, but also those areas that may
struggle to maintain the NAAQS, despite clean monitored data or
projected attainment.
(2) Determining which upwind states are ``linked'' to these
identified downwind air quality problems and thereby warrant further
analysis to determine whether their emissions violate the good neighbor
provision. In CSAPR and the CSAPR Update, EPA identified such upwind
states as those modeled to contribute at or above a threshold
equivalent to one percent of the applicable NAAQS. Upwind states linked
to one of these downwind nonattainment or maintenance areas were then
evaluated to determine what level of emissions reductions, if any,
should be required of each state.
(3) For states linked to downwind air quality problems, identifying
upwind emissions on a statewide basis that significantly contribute to
nonattainment or interfere with maintenance of a standard. In all of
EPA's prior rulemakings addressing interstate ozone pollution
transport, the Agency apportioned emission reduction responsibility
among multiple upwind states linked to downwind air quality problems by
considering feasible NOX control strategies and using cost-
based and air quality-based criteria to quantify the amount of a linked
upwind state's emissions that significantly contribute to nonattainment
or interfere with maintenance in another state.
(4) For states that are found to have emissions that significantly
contribute to nonattainment or interfere with maintenance of the NAAQS
downwind, implementing the necessary emission reductions within the
state. EPA has done this by requiring affected sources in upwind states
to participate in allowance trading programs (e.g., the CSAPR
NOX Ozone Season Group 2 Trading Program) to achieve the
necessary emission reductions.
EPA's proposed action on Kentucky's draft submission is based on a
finding that 2023 is a reasonable analytic year for evaluating ozone
transport problems with respect to the 2008 ozone NAAQS and that
interstate ozone transport air quality modeling projections for 2023
indicate that Kentucky is not expected to significantly contribute to
nonattainment or interfere with maintenance of the 2008 ozone NAAQS in
downwind states. As explained in more detail in the following
paragraphs, EPA's selection of 2023 as a reasonable analytic year is
supported by an assessment of attainment dates for the 2008 ozone NAAQS
and feasibility for control strategies to reduce NOX in
CSAPR Update states, including Kentucky. EPA's assessment of
NOX control strategy feasibility prioritizes NOX
control strategies in CSAPR Update states that would be additional to
those strategies that were already quantified into CSAPR Update
emissions budgets. EPA proposes that 2023 is an appropriate future
analytic year because it is the first ozone season for which
significant new cost-effective post-combustion controls to reduce
NOX
[[Page 17126]]
could be feasibly installed across the CSAPR Update region, and thus
represents the timeframe that is as expeditious as practicable for
upwind states to implement additional emission reductions. EPA's
analysis of steps 1 and 2 for the 2023 analytic year indicates that
there are no expected eastern nonattainment or maintenance receptors
for the 2008 ozone NAAQS in this future year. Together, these findings
support EPA's proposed approval of Kentucky's SIP submittal, which is
based on the determination that Kentucky is not expected to
significantly contribute to nonattainment or interfere with maintenance
of the 2008 ozone NAAQS in downwind states in 2023.
A. Additional Information Regarding Selection of an Analytic Year
One of the first steps in conducting air quality modeling analysis
to evaluate steps 1 and 2 of the four-step interstate transport
framework is selecting a future analytic year. In determining the
appropriate future analytic year for purposes of assessing remaining
interstate transport obligations for the 2008 ozone NAAQS, including
Kentucky's, EPA considered two primary factors: Attainment dates and
NOX control feasibility.
First, EPA considered the downwind attainment dates for the 2008
ozone NAAQS. In North Carolina v. EPA, the D.C. Circuit held that
emissions reductions required by the good neighbor provision should be
evaluated considering the relevant attainment dates of downwind
nonattainment areas impacted by interstate transport.\11\ The next
attainment dates for the 2008 ozone NAAQS will be July 20, 2021, for
nonattainment areas classified as serious and July 20, 2027, for
nonattainment areas classified as severe.\12\ Because the various
attainment deadlines are in July, which is in the middle of the ozone
monitoring season for all states, data from the calendar year prior to
the attainment date (e.g., data from 2020 for the 2021 attainment date
and from 2026 for the 2027 attainment date) are the last data that can
be used to demonstrate attainment with the NAAQS. In all cases, the
statute provides that areas should attain as expeditiously as
practicable.\13\
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\11\ 531 F.3d 896, 911-12 (D.C. Cir. 2008) (holding that EPA
must coordinate interstate transport compliance deadlines with
downwind attainment deadlines).
\12\ While there are no areas (outside of California) that are
classified as either serious or severe, these classifications (and
the associated attainment dates) are required under the statute in
the event that the many downwind moderate nonattainment areas fail
to attain by their attainment date of July 20, 2018.
\13\ See CAA section 181(a)(1).
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Second, EPA considered the timeframes that may be required for
implementing further emissions reductions as expeditiously as
practicable. In considering potential emissions reductions, EPA notes
that emissions levels are already expected to decline in the future
through implementation of existing local, state and federal emissions
reduction programs. This is an important consideration because the U.S.
Supreme Court and the D.C. Circuit Court have both held that EPA may
not require emissions reductions greater than necessary to achieve
attainment and maintenance of the NAAQS in downwind areas.\14\
Therefore, if new controls cannot be implemented feasibly for several
years and air quality will likely be cleaner in the future, EPA should
evaluate air quality in a future year to ensure that any potential
emissions reductions would not over-control relative to the identified
ozone problem. Accordingly, it is reasonable to evaluate downwind air
quality, and identify any remaining receptors, in the year in which EPA
expects additional emissions reductions, if any, to be implemented.
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\14\ EPA v. EME Homer City Generation, L.P., 134 S. Ct. 1584,
1600-01 (2014); EME Homer City Generation, L.P. v. EPA, 795 F.3d
118, 127 (D.C. Cir. 2015).
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For its analysis of NOX control feasibility, EPA
believes that the feasibility of control strategies should reflect the
time needed to plan for, install, and test new EGU and non-EGU
NOX reduction strategies across multiple states. This
conclusion is based on previous interstate ozone transport analyses
showing that multiple upwind states are typically linked to identified
eastern downwind ozone problems.\15\ In particular, EPA's assessment in
the CSAPR Update indicated that, with respect to the Harford and
Richmond receptors to which Kentucky was linked, eight other states and
the District of Columbia would continue to be linked to the Harford
receptor and seven other states would continue to be linked to the
Richmond receptor after implementation of the CSAPR Update in 2017.\16\
Thus, to evaluate potential upwind obligations for one of several
states linked to a common downwind air quality problem, EPA believes
the most appropriate approach is to evaluate potential NOX
control strategies on a regional, rather than state-specific, basis.
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\15\ See 81 FR 74504 (October 26, 2016).
\16\ See EPA's Air Quality Assessment Tool from the CSAPR Update
in the docket for this rulemaking.
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Further, EPA believes that the feasibility of new emissions
controls should be considered on multiple upwind source categories in
order to ensure that the Agency properly evaluates NOX
reduction potential and cost-effectiveness (at step 3 of the framework)
from all reasonable control measures (including beyond the EGU sector).
Major NOX emissions come from multiple anthropogenic source
categories, such as electric utilities and industrial facilities. As
commenters noted during the development of the CSAPR Update, EGUs in
the eastern U.S. have been the subject of regulation to address
interstate ozone pollution transport and have made significant
financial investments to achieve emission reductions. While EPA
evaluates additional control feasibility for EGUs in the discussion
that follows, non-EGU source categories may also be well-positioned to
cost-effectively reduce NOX relative to EGUs, including non-
EGUs that currently do not report emissions to EPA under 40 CFR part 75
and for which EPA's information concerning emissions levels, existing
control efficiencies, and further emissions reduction potential is
therefore more uncertain.\17\
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\17\ See Assessment of Non-EGU NOX Emission Controls,
Cost of Controls, and Time for Compliance Final technical support
document (TSD) from the CSAPR Update in the docket for this
rulemaking.
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In establishing the CSAPR Update EGU NOX ozone season
emission budgets, EPA quantified the emission reductions achievable
from all NOX control strategies that were feasible within
one year and cost-effective at a marginal cost of $1,400 per ton of
NOX removed.\18\ These EGU NOX control strategies
were: Fully operating existing Selective Catalytic Reduction (SCR),
including both optimizing NOX removal by existing,
operational SCRs and turning on and optimizing existing idled SCRs;
installing state-of-the-art NOX combustion controls; and
shifting generation to existing units with lower-NOX
emission rates within the same state. For the purposes of this proposed
action on Kentucky's draft submission, EPA considers these
NOX control strategies to have been appropriately evaluated
in the CSAPR Update rulemaking. Further, the Agency believes that the
resulting CSAPR Update emission budgets are being appropriately
implemented under the CSAPR NOX Ozone Season Group 2
[[Page 17127]]
allowance trading program. Therefore, EPA has focused its further
assessment on feasibility of controls that were deemed to be infeasible
to install for the 2017 ozone season in the CSAPR Update for purposes
of identifying an appropriate future analytic year rather than
reassessing controls previously analyzed.
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\18\ The CSAPR Update was signed on September 7, 2016--
approximately 8 months before the beginning of the 2017 ozone season
on May 1.
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EPA identified, but did not account for, the following two EGU
NOX control strategies in establishing the CSAPR Update
emissions budgets because implementation by 2017 was not considered
feasible: Installing new SCRs and selective non-catalytic reduction
(SNCR) controls. In the CSAPR Update, EPA found that EGU SCR post-
combustion controls can achieve up to 90 percent reduction in EGU
NOX emissions. In 2017, these controls were in widespread
use by EGUs in the east. In the 22 state CSAPR Update region,
approximately 59 percent of coal-fired EGU heat input and 64 percent of
natural gas-fired EGU generation was equipped with SCR.\19\ Installing
new SCR controls for EGUs not already equipped with such controls
generally involves conducting an engineering review of the facility and
awarding a procurement contract; obtaining a construction permit;
installing the control technology; and obtaining an operating
permit.\20\ The total time associated with navigating these steps is
estimated to be up to 39 months for an individual power plant
installing SCR on more than one boiler.\21\ However, for the purposes
of evaluating the installation timing for new SCR controls at the
fleet-level, rather than the unit-level, within the CSAPR Update
region, EPA believes more time would be needed. As explained more fully
below, EPA determined that a minimum of 48 months is a reasonable time
to allow for the coordination of outages, shepherding of labor and
material supply, and identification of retrofit projects. This time
frame would facilitate multiple power plants with multiple boilers to
conduct all stages of post-combustion and combustion control project
planning, installation and operation.
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\19\ Heat input is a proxy for the distribution of electricity
generation across the evaluated EGUs.
\20\ Final Report: Engineering and Economic Factors Affecting
the Installation of Control Technologies for Multipollutant
Strategies (``Engineering and Economic Factors Report''), EPA-600/R-
02/073, October 2002 (available at https://nepis.epa.gov/Adobe/PDF/P1001G0O.pdf).
\21\ Engineering and Economic Factors Report, Table 3-1.
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Scheduled curtailment, or planned outage, for pollution control
installation would be necessary to complete either SCR or SNCR
projects. Given that peak demand and rule compliance would both fall in
the ozone-season, sources would likely try to schedule installation
projects for the shoulder season (i.e., the spring and/or fall when
electricity demand is lower than in the peak summer season) when
reserve margins are higher and compliance requirements are not yet in
effect. If multiple units were under the same timeline to complete the
retrofit projects as soon as feasible from an engineering perspective,
this could lead to bottlenecks of scheduled outages as each unit is
trying to start and finish in roughly the same compressed time. Thus,
any compliance timeframe that would assume installation of new SCR or
SNCR controls should allow multiple shoulder seasons to accommodate
scheduling of curtailment for control installation purposes and better
accommodate the regional nature of the program.
In addition to the coordination of scheduled curtailment, an
appropriate compliance timeframe should accommodate the additional
coordination of labor and material supply necessary for any fleet-wide
mitigation efforts. The total construction labor for an SCR system
associated with a 500 megawatt (MW) EGU is in the range of 300,000 to
500,000 man-hours, with boilermakers\22\ accounting for approximately
half of this time.\23\ SNCR, while generally having shorter project
time frames of 10 to 13 months from bid solicitation to start-up, share
similar labor and material resources and therefore are linked to the
timing of SCR installation planning. In recent industry surveys, one of
the largest shortages of union craft workers was for boilermakers. This
shortage of skilled boilermakers is expected to rise due to an
anticipated nine percent increase in boilermaker labor demand growth by
2026, coupled with expected retirements and comparatively low numbers
of apprentices joining the workforce.\24\ The shortage of and demand
for skilled labor, including other craft workers critical to pollution
control installation, is pronounced in the manufacturing industry. The
Association of Union Constructors (TAUC) conducted a survey of
identified labor shortages where boilermakers were second to most
frequently reported skilled labor market with a labor shortage.\25\
Moreover, the natural disasters of Hurricane Harvey and wildfires in
2017 are expected to further tighten the labor supply market in
manufacturing in the near term.\26\ EPA considered these tight labor
market conditions (which were compounded by Hurricane Irma) for the
manufacturing roles critical, and combined with fleet-level mitigation
initiatives, would likely lead to some sequencing and staging of labor
pool usage, rather than simultaneous construction across all efforts.
Allowing a timeframe that exceeds the demonstrated single-unit
installation is therefore appropriate for fleet-wide programs.
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\22\ A boilermaker is a trained and skilled craftsman who
produces steel fabrications (in this context, boilers).
\23\ See Engineering and Economic Factors Report, Table 3-1.
\24\ Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor,
Occupational Outlook Handbook, Boilermakers, on the internet at
https://www.bls.gov/ooh/construction-and-extraction/boilermakers.htm
(last modified on January 30, 2018).
\25\ Union Craft Labor Supply Survey, The Association of Union
Constructors, Exhibit 4-2 at page 29, available at https://www.tauc.org/files/2017_TAUC_UNION_CRAFT_LABOR_SUPPLY_REVISEDBC_FINAL.pdf (2017).
\26\ Skilled Wage Growth Less Robust, Worker Shortage Still and
Issue. Industry Week (October 23, 2017), available at https://www.industryweek.com/talent/skilled-wage-growth-less-robust-worker-shortage-still-issue.
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In addition to labor supply, NOX post-combustion control
projects also require materials and equipment such as steel and cranes.
Sheet metal workers used in steel production are also reported as
having well above an average supply-side shortage of labor. This--
coupled with growth in steel demand estimated at three percent in 2018
and the simultaneous growth in global economies--puts upward pressure
on demand for steel.\27\ Similarly, cranes are critical for
installation of SCRs, which often need to be lifted hundreds of feet in
the air. Cranes are also facing higher demand during periods of
economic growth with companies reporting a shortage in both equipment
and manpower.\28\ \29\ This tightening labor, materials, and equipment
atmosphere combined with the regional aspect of a pollution
transportation program puts upward pressure on installation timetables
relative to what has been historically demonstrated at the unit-level.
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\27\ Worldsteel Short Range Outlook (October 16, 2017),
available at https://www.worldsteel.org/media-centre/press-releases/2017/worldsteel-Short-Range-Outlook-2017-2018.html.
\28\ Seattle Has Most Cranes in the Country for 2nd Year in a
Row--and Lead is Growing, Seattle Times (July 11, 2017), available
at https://www.seattletimes.com/business/real-estate/seattle-has-most-cranes-in-the-country-for-2nd-year-in-a-row-and-lead-is-growing/.
\29\ See Rider Levett Bucknall Crane Index--January 2018 in the
docket for this rulemaking.
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The time lag identified between planning and in-service date of SCR
and SNCR operations also illustrates that conditions sometimes lead to
[[Page 17128]]
installation times of 4 years or longer. For instance, SCR projects for
units at Ottumwa, Columbia, and Oakley Generating Station were all
being planned by 2014. However, these projects had estimated in-service
dates ranging between 2018 and 2021.\30\ Completed projects, when large
in scale, also illustrate how timelines can extend beyond the bare
minimum necessary for a single unit when the project is part of a
larger multi-unit air quality initiative. For instance, Big Bend in
Florida recently completed a multi-faceted project that involved adding
SCRs to all four units, converting furnaces, making overfire air
changes, and making windbox modifications. The completion time from the
initial planning stages was a decade.\31\
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\30\ 2014 EIA Form 860, Schedule 6, Environmental Control
Equipment.
\31\ Big Bend's Multi-Unit SCR Retrofit. Power Magazine. March
1, 2010. Available at https://www.powermag.com/big-bends-multi-unit-scr-retrofit/.
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While individual unit-level SCR and SNCR projects can average 39
and 10 months respectively going from bid to start up, a comprehensive
and regional emissions reduction effort requires more time to
accommodate the labor, materials, and outage coordination. And since
these post-combustion control strategies share similar input resources
and are part of regional reduction programs rather than unit-specific
technology mandates, the timeframes for one are inherently linked to
another. This means that SNCR projects cannot simply be put on an early
schedule because of the reduced construction timing without impacting
the available resources to SCRs and the potential start dates of those
projects. Given the market and regulatory circumstances in which EPA
evaluated this effort, it determined that 4 years would be a reasonable
time to coordinate the planning and completion of any mitigation
efforts necessary in this instance.
In the CSAPR Update, EPA also evaluated the feasibility of
NOX controls on non-EGUs in the eastern United States,
finding that there was greater uncertainty in the assessment of non-EGU
point-source NOX mitigation potential as compared to
EGUs.\32\ EPA explained in the CSAPR Update that more time was required
for states and EPA to improve non-EGU point source data, including data
on existing control efficiencies, additional applicable pollution
control technologies, and installation times for those control
technologies. Further, using the best information available to EPA,
which was submitted for public comment with the proposed CSAPR Update,
EPA found that there were more non-EGU point sources than EGU sources
and that these sources on average emit less NOX than EGUs.
The implication was that there were more individual sources to control
and there were relatively fewer emissions reductions available from
each source, reducing the cost-effectiveness of controls. Further,
another factor influencing uncertainty was that EPA lacks sufficient
information on the capacity and experience of suppliers and major
engineering firms' supply chains to determine if they would be able to
install the required pollution controls for non-EGU sources in less
than 48 months. Considering these factors, EPA found substantial
uncertainty regarding whether significant aggregate NOX
mitigation would be achievable from non-EGU point sources to address
the 2008 ozone NAAQS any earlier than the timelines noted in EPA's
analysis of new EGU post-combustion control feasibility.
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\32\ See Assessment of Non-EGU NOX Emission Controls,
Cost of Controls, and Time for Compliance Final TSD from the CSAPR
Update in the docket for this rulemaking.
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Finally, in the CSAPR Update, EPA also identified one EGU
NOX control strategy that was considered feasible to
implement within one year but was not cost-effective at a marginal cost
of $1,400 per ton of NOX removed: Specifically, turning on
existing idled SNCRs. In the CSAPR Update, EPA identified a marginal
cost of $3,400 per ton as the level of uniform control stringency that
represents turning on and fully operating idled SNCRs.\33\ However, the
CSAPR Update finalized emission budgets using $1,400 per ton control
stringency, finding that this level of stringency represented the
control level at which incremental EGU NOX reductions and
corresponding downwind ozone air quality improvements were maximized
with respect to marginal cost. In finding that use of the $1,400
control cost level was appropriate, EPA established that the more
stringent emission budget level reflecting $3,400 per ton (representing
turning on idled SNCR) yielded fewer additional emission reductions and
fewer air quality improvements relative to the increase in control
costs. In other words, based on information available at that time,
establishing emission budgets at $3,400 per ton was not determined to
be cost-effective for addressing good neighbor provision obligations
for the 2008 ozone NAAQS. 81 FR 74550 (Oct. 26, 2016). EPA believes
that its assessment of turning on and fully operating SNCRs was
appropriately evaluated in the CSAPR Update with respect to addressing
interstate ozone pollution transport for the 2008 ozone NAAQS.
Accordingly, in this proposal EPA is not prioritizing the assessment of
this control strategy in terms of identifying an appropriate future
analytic year.
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\33\ See EGU NOX Mitigation Strategies Final Rule
TSD, docket ID EPA-HQ-OAR-2015-0500-0554, available at
www.regulations.gov.
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For these reasons, EPA believes it is appropriate to assume that
planning for, installing, and commencing operation of new controls for
both EGUs and non-EGUs would take up to 48 months following
promulgation of a final rule requiring appropriate emission reductions.
Specifically, EPA believes that it is reasonable to assume that the
installation of new post-combustion controls for state- or regional-
level fleets of EGUs or controls for non-EGU point sources may take up
to 4 years following promulgation of a final rule.\34\ For purposes of
conducting updated modeling to determine in what year future emissions
reductions might be implemented, EPA, therefore, considered the
timeframe in which a future rulemaking that might require such
emissions reductions would likely be finalized. While EPA is subject to
several statutory and court-ordered deadlines to address the
requirements of the good neighbor provision for the 2008 ozone NAAQS,
EPA does not believe that it is feasible, at this point, to finalize
action requiring emission reductions for any state prior to the start
of the 2018 ozone season (i.e., May 1, 2018).\35\ Accordingly,
implementation of any of the control strategies considered herein is
likely not feasible until during or after the 2022 ozone season.
Considering the time to implement the controls with the time to
promulgate a final rule, EPA believes that such reductions are unlikely
to be implemented for a full ozone season until 2023.
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\34\ See 81 FR 74562 (October 26, 2016).
\35\ Using the 2023 analytic year also allowed EPA to begin the
updated analysis using the data sets originally developed for the
January 2017 NODA (82 FR 1733, January 6, 2017), which we revised in
response to stakeholder feedback. Accordingly, EPA initiated its
analysis more quickly than if a different year had been chosen,
which might have delayed subsequent rulemaking actions and therefore
emissions reductions.
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While 2023 is later than the next attainment date for nonattainment
areas classified as Serious (July 20, 2021), as explained earlier, EPA
does not believe it is likely that emissions control requirements could
be promulgated and implemented by the serious area attainment date.
Likewise, EPA also
[[Page 17129]]
believes that it would not be reasonable to assume that emissions
reductions could be postponed to the attainment date for nonattainment
areas classified as severe (July 20, 2027) because the statute
instructs states to attain the NAAQS as expeditiously as practicable.
Accordingly, EPA believes implementation of additional emission
reductions would be as expeditiously as practicable in light of
relevant attainment dates.
In conclusion, in selecting its future analytic year for the air
quality modeling, EPA balanced considerations such as attainment dates
in downwind states, including the obligation to attain as expeditiously
as practicable, EPA's obligation to avoid unnecessary over-control of
upwind state emissions, the timeframe in which any necessary emissions
reductions could be feasibly implemented, and the timeframe required
for rulemaking to impose any such emissions reductions that might be
required. In light of these considerations, EPA believes that 2023 is a
reasonable year to assess downwind air quality to evaluate any
remaining requirements under the good neighbor provision for the 2008
ozone NAAQS.
B. EPA's Air Quality Modeling
EPA used the Comprehensive Air Quality Model with Extensions (CAMx
v6.40) \36\ for modeling the updated emissions in 2011 and 2023.\37\
EPA used outputs from the 2011 and 2023 model simulations to project
base period 2009-2013 average and maximum ozone design values to 2023
at monitoring sites nationwide. EPA's modeling guidance \38\ recommends
that model predictions from the ``3 x 3'' array of grid cells
surrounding the location of the monitoring site be used in the
projection of future year design values. EPA used this approach for
projecting design values for the updated 2023 modeling. In addition, in
light of comments on the January 2017 NODA and other analyses, EPA also
projected 2023 design values based on a modified version of this
approach for those monitoring sites located in coastal areas. In brief,
in the alternative approach, EPA eliminated from the design value
calculations those modeling data in grid cells not containing a
monitoring site that are dominated by water (i.e., more than 50 percent
of the land use in the grid cell is water).39 40
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\36\ CAMx v6.40 was the most recent public release version of
CAMx at the time EPA updated its modeling in Fall 2017.
Comprehensive Air Quality Model with Extension version 6.40 User's
Guide,'' Ramboll Environ, December 2016, available at https://www.camx.com/. For the emissions information, see TSD: Additional
Updates to Emissions Inventories for the Version 6.3, 2011 Emissions
Modeling Platform for the Year 2023, October 2017. Available at
https://www.epa.gov/air-emissions-modeling/2011-version-63-platform.
\37\ For the updated modeling, EPA used the construct of the
modeling platform (i.e., modeling domain and non-emissions inputs)
that we used for the NODA modeling, except that the photolysis rates
files were updated to be consistent with CAMx v6.40. The NODA Air
Quality Modeling Technical Support Document describing the modeling
platform is available at https://www.epa.gov/airmarkets/notice-data-availability-preliminary-interstate-ozone-transport-modeling-data-2015-ozone.
\38\ Draft Modeling Guidance for Demonstrating Attainment of Air
Quality Goals for Ozone, PM2s, and Regional Haze (Dec. 13, 2014),
available at https://www.epa.gov/ttn/scram/guidance/guide/Draft_O3-PM-RH_Modeling_Guidance-2014.pdf.
\39\ A model grid cell is identified as a ``water'' cell if more
than 50 percent of the grid cell is water based on the 2006 National
Land Cover Database. Grid cells that meet this criterion are treated
as entirely over water in the Weather Research Forecast (WRF)
modeling used to develop the 2011 meteorology for EPA's air quality
modeling.
\40\ The base period and 2023 average and maximum design values
at individual monitoring sites for both the ``3 x 3'' approach and
the alternative approach affecting coastal sites are available in a
file at https://www.epa.gov/airmarkets/october-2017-memo-and-information-interstate-transport-sips-2008-ozone-naaqs. This file
also contains 2014-2016 measured design values.
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When identifying areas with potential downwind air quality
problems, EPA's updated modeling used the same ``receptor'' definitions
as those developed during the CSAPR rulemaking process and used in the
CSAPR Update.\41\ That is, EPA identified nonattainment receptors as
those monitoring sites with current measured values exceeding the NAAQS
that also have projected (i.e., in 2023) average design values
exceeding the NAAQS. EPA identified maintenance receptors as those
monitoring sites with current measured values below the NAAQS and
projected average and maximum design values exceeding the NAAQS. EPA
also identified as maintenance receptors those monitoring sites with
projected average design values below the NAAQS but with projected
maximum design values exceeding the NAAQS. As with past application of
receptor definitions, EPA considered all nonattainment receptors to
also be maintenance receptors because a monitoring site with a
projected average design value above the standard necessarily also has
a projected maximum design value above the standard.
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\41\ See 81 FR 74530 (October 26, 2016).
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EPA's 2023 updated modeling, using either the ``3 x 3'' approach or
the alternative approach described above for projecting design values
for monitoring sites in coastal areas, indicates that there are no
monitoring sites outside of California that are projected to have
nonattainment or maintenance problems with respect to the 2008 ozone
NAAQS in 2023.\42\ Specifically for Kentucky, EPA's modeling for the
CSAPR Update showed that emissions from Kentucky were linked to 2017
maintenance receptors in Harford Co., MD, Hamilton Co., OH,
Philadelphia Co., PA, and Richmond Co., NY. As indicated above, EPA's
updated 2023 modeling shows that these monitoring sites--along with all
other sites outside of California--will have nonattainment and/or
maintenance problems resolved with respect to the 2008 ozone NAAQS in
2023.
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\42\ This information is available at https://www.epa.gov/airmarkets/october-2017-memo-and-information-interstate-transport-sips-2008-ozone-naaqs.
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C. Conclusions
As discussed above, Kentucky's draft submission demonstrates that
emission activities from the State will not contribute significantly to
nonattainment or interfere with maintenance of the 2008 8-hour ozone
NAAQS in any other state after implementation of all on-the-books
measures, including the CSAPR Update. EPA's modeling indicates that
there are no monitoring sites (outside of California) that are
projected to have nonattainment or maintenance problems with respect to
the 2008 ozone NAAQS in 2023, and EPA's analysis supports the use of
2023 as the proper analytic year. Kentucky has provided information
that shows the use of this modeling is appropriate in this context,
such as emissions trends data and information about on-the-books
controls that supports the likelihood of reduced emissions from
Kentucky between 2017 and 2023. For example, Kentucky's submission
notes that retirements of coal-fired units at the E.W. Brown Generating
Station and the Elmer Smith Plant are planned to occur before 2023,
which means that emissions of NOX from Kentucky sources will
be even lower than EPA's modeling projects. In addition, Kentucky's
draft submission contains air quality modeling conducted by Alpine
Geophysics, LLC, that similarly concludes that none of the
nonattainment and maintenance receptors identified in the CSAPR Update
are predicted to be in nonattainment or have issues with maintenance in
2023.
Because Kentucky is not linked to any downwind nonattainment or
maintenance receptors in 2023, EPA is proposing to approve Kentucky's
draft SIP submission and to determine that--after implementation of all
on-the-books measures, including the CSAPR
[[Page 17130]]
Update--emissions from the Commonwealth will no longer contribute
significantly to nonattainment or interfere with maintenance of the
2008 8-hour ozone NAAQS in any other state.HD1P>IV. Parallel Processing
Parallel processing refers to a concurrent state and federal
proposed rulemaking action. Generally, the state submits a copy of the
proposed regulation or other revisions to EPA before conducting its
public hearing. EPA reviews this proposed state action, and prepares a
notice of proposed rulemaking. EPA's notice of proposed rulemaking is
published in the Federal Register during the same timeframe that the
state is holding its public hearing. The state and EPA then provide for
concurrent public comment periods on both the state action and federal
action, respectively. If the state's formal SIP revision is changed
from the draft SIP revision, EPA will evaluate those changes and may
publish another notice of proposed rulemaking. A final rulemaking
action by EPA will occur only after the SIP revision has been adopted
by Kentucky and submitted formally to EPA for incorporation into the
SIP.
The Commonwealth of Kentucky, through the Kentucky Division for Air
Quality (DAQ), requested parallel processing of the February 28, 2018
draft SIP revision regarding the ``good neighbor'' provision of the
CAA. This revision was noticed for public comment by the Commonwealth
on March 1, 2018, and is not yet state-effective. Through this proposed
rulemaking, EPA is proposing parallel approval of this draft SIP
revision.
Once the February 28, 2018, draft revision is state-effective,
Kentucky will need to provide EPA with a formal SIP revision that meets
the requirements outlined in 40 CFR part 51 Appendix V ``Criteria for
Determining the Completeness of Plan Submissions.'' After Kentucky
submits the formal SIP revision (including a response to any public
comments raised during the State's public participation process), EPA
will evaluate the revision. If the formal SIP revision is changed from
the draft SIP revision, EPA will evaluate those changes for
significance. If any such changes are found by EPA to be significant,
then the Agency intends to re-propose the action based upon the revised
submission.
While EPA may not be able to have a concurrent public comment
process with the Commonwealth, the DAQ-requested parallel processing
allows EPA to begin to take action on the Commonwealth's draft SIP
submission in advance of the formal SIP submission. As stated above,
the final rulemaking action by EPA will occur only after the SIP
submission has been: (1) Adopted by Kentucky; (2) submitted formally to
EPA for incorporation into the SIP; and (3) evaluated for changes.
V. EPA's Proposed Action
EPA is proposing to approve Kentucky's February 28, 2018, draft SIP
submission and to find that Kentucky is not required to make any
further reductions, beyond those required by the CSAPR Update, to
address its statutory obligation under CAA section 110(a)(2)(D)(i)(I)
for the 2008 8-hour ozone NAAQS. If EPA finalizes approval of this
draft submission, Kentucky's obligations under 110(a)(2)(d)(i)(I) will
be fully addressed through the combination of the CSAPR Update FIP and
the demonstration showing that no further reductions are necessary. As
a result, EPA is also proposing to amend the regulatory text at 40 CFR
52.940(b)(2) to reflect that the CSAPR Update represents a full remedy
with respect to Kentucky's transport obligation for the 2008 ozone
NAAQS. EPA requests comment on this proposed action.
EPA's proposed approval is contingent on Kentucky's submission of a
final SIP revision that does not differ significantly from the February
28, 2018 draft. Should Kentucky not submit such a final SIP revision to
EPA or should EPA not be able to approve a final revision, EPA will
undertake further action to address any outstanding obligations that
Kentucky may have under 110(a)(2)(D)(i)(I) for the 2008 ozone NAAQS.
The Agency has made the preliminary determination that this proposed
action is consistent with the CAA.
VI. Statutory and Executive Order Reviews
Under the CAA, the Administrator is required to approve a SIP
submission that complies with the provisions of the Act and applicable
Federal regulations. See 42 U.S.C. 7410(k); 40 CFR 52.02(a). Thus, in
reviewing SIP submissions, EPA's role is to approve state choices,
provided that they meet the criteria of the CAA. This action merely
proposes to approve state law as meeting Federal requirements and does
not impose additional requirements beyond those imposed by state law.
For that reason, this proposed action:
Is not a significant regulatory action subject to review
by the Office of Management and Budget under Executive Orders 12866 (58
FR 51735, October 4, 1993) and 13563 (76 FR 3821, January 21, 2011);
Is not an Executive Order 13771 (82 FR 9339, February 2,
2017) regulatory action because SIP approvals are exempted under
Executive Order 12866;
Does not impose an information collection burden under the
provisions of the Paperwork Reduction Act (44 U.S.C. 3501 et seq.);
Is certified as not having a significant economic impact
on a substantial number of small entities under the Regulatory
Flexibility Act (5 U.S.C. 601 et seq.);
Does not contain any unfunded mandate or significantly or
uniquely affect small governments, as described in the Unfunded
Mandates Reform Act of 1995 (Pub. L. 104-4);
Does not have Federalism implications as specified in
Executive Order 13132 (64 FR 43255, August 10, 1999);
Is not an economically significant regulatory action based
on health or safety risks subject to Executive Order 13045 (62 FR
19885, April 23, 1997);
Is not a significant regulatory action subject to
Executive Order 13211 (66 FR 28355, May 22, 2001);
Is not subject to requirements of Section 12(d) of the
National Technology Transfer and Advancement Act of 1995 (15 U.S.C. 272
note) because application of those requirements would be inconsistent
with the CAA; and
Does not provide EPA with the discretionary authority to
address, as appropriate, disproportionate human health or environmental
effects, using practicable and legally permissible methods, under
Executive Order 12898 (59 FR 7629, February 16, 1994).
The SIP is not approved to apply on any Indian reservation land or
in any other area where EPA or an Indian tribe has demonstrated that a
tribe has jurisdiction. In those areas of Indian country, the rule does
not have tribal implications as specified by Executive Order 13175 (65
FR 67249, November 9, 2000), nor will it impose substantial direct
costs on tribal governments or preempt tribal law.
List of Subjects in 40 CFR Part 52
Environmental protection, Administrative practice and procedure,
Air pollution control, Incorporation by reference, Intergovernmental
relations, Nitrogen dioxide, Ozone,, Reporting and recordkeeping
requirements.
Authority: 42 U.S.C. 7401 et seq.
[[Page 17131]]
Dated: April 9. 2018.
Onis ``Trey'' Glenn, III,
Regional Administrator, Region 4.
[FR Doc. 2018-08137 Filed 4-17-18; 8:45 am]
BILLING CODE 6560-50-P