Listing Endangered and Threatened Wildlife and Plants; Notice of 12-Month Finding on a Petition To List the Pacific Bluefin Tuna as Threatened or Endangered Under the Endangered Species Act, 37060-37080 [2017-16668]
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Federal Register / Vol. 82, No. 151 / Tuesday, August 8, 2017 / Notices
be the rate applicable to the PRC
exporter that supplied that non-PRC
exporter. These deposit requirements,
when imposed, shall remain in effect
until further notice.
Notification to Importers
This notice also serves as a
preliminary reminder to importers of
their responsibility under 19 CFR
351.402(f)(2) to file a certificate
regarding the reimbursement of
antidumping duties prior to liquidation
of the relevant entries during the POR.
Failure to comply with this requirement
could result in the Department’s
presumption that reimbursement of
antidumping duties occurred and the
subsequent assessment of double
antidumping duties.
These preliminary results are issued
and published in accordance with
sections 751(a)(1) and 777(i)(1) of the
Act.
Dated: August 2, 2017.
Carole Showers,
Executive Director, Office of Policy
performing the duties of Deputy Assistant
Secretary for Enforcement and Compliance.
Appendix
List of Topics Discussed in the Preliminary
Decision Memorandum
I. Summary
II. Background
III. Scope of the Order
IV. Discussion of the Methodology
A. Partial Rescission
B. NME Country Status
C. Separate Rates
V. Recommendation
[FR Doc. 2017–16690 Filed 8–7–17; 8:45 am]
BILLING CODE 3510–DS–P
orientalis) as a threatened or endangered
species under the Endangered Species
Act (ESA) and to designate critical
habitat concurrently with the listing. We
have completed a comprehensive status
review of the species in response to the
petition. Based on the best scientific and
commercial data available, including
the status review report, and after taking
into account efforts being made to
protect the species, we have determined
that listing of the Pacific bluefin tuna is
not warranted. We conclude that the
Pacific bluefin tuna is not an
endangered species throughout all or a
significant portion of its range, nor
likely to become an endangered species
within the foreseeable future throughout
all or a significant portion of its range.
We also announce the availability of a
status review report, prepared pursuant
to the ESA, for Pacific bluefin tuna.
This finding was made on
August 8, 2017.
DATES:
The documents informing
the 12-month finding are available by
submitting a request to the Assistant
Regional Administrator, Protected
Resources Division, West Coast Regional
Office, 501 W. Ocean Blvd., Suite 4200,
Long Beach, CA 90802, Attention:
Pacific Bluefin Tuna 12-month Finding.
The documents are also available
electronically at https://
www.westcoast.fisheries.noaa.gov/.
ADDRESSES:
Gary
Rule, NMFS West Coast Region at
gary.rule@noaa.gov, (503) 230–5424; or
Marta Nammack, NMFS Office of
Protected Resources at
marta.nammack@noaa.gov, (301) 427–
8469.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT:
DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION:
National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration
Background
[Docket No. 160719634–7697–02]
RIN 0648–XE756
asabaliauskas on DSKBBXCHB2PROD with NOTICES
Listing Endangered and Threatened
Wildlife and Plants; Notice of 12-Month
Finding on a Petition To List the
Pacific Bluefin Tuna as Threatened or
Endangered Under the Endangered
Species Act
National Marine Fisheries
Service (NMFS), National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration (NOAA),
Commerce.
ACTION: Notice of 12-month petition
finding.
AGENCY:
We, NMFS, announce a 12month finding on a petition to list the
Pacific bluefin tuna (Thunnus
SUMMARY:
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On June 20, 2016, we received a
petition from the Center for Biological
Diversity (CBD), on behalf of 13 other
co-petitioners, to list the Pacific bluefin
tuna as threatened or endangered under
the ESA and to designate critical habitat
concurrently with its listing. On October
11, 2016, we published a positive 90day finding (81 FR 70074) announcing
that the petition presented substantial
scientific or commercial information
indicating that the petitioned action
may be warranted. In our 90-day
finding, we also announced the
initiation of a status review of the
Pacific bluefin tuna and requested
information to inform our decision on
whether the species warrants listing as
threatened or endangered under the
ESA.
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ESA Statutory Provisions
The ESA defines ‘‘species’’ to include
any subspecies of fish or wildlife or
plants, and any distinct population
segment (DPS) of any vertebrate fish or
wildlife which interbreeds when mature
(16 U.S.C. 1532(16)). The U.S. Fish and
Wildlife Service (FWS) and NMFS have
adopted a joint policy describing what
constitutes a DPS under the ESA (61 FR
4722; February 7, 1996). The joint DPS
policy identifies two criteria for making
a determination that a population is a
DPS: (1) The population must be
discrete in relation to the remainder of
the species to which it belongs; and (2)
the population must be significant to the
species to which it belongs.
Section 3 of the ESA defines an
endangered species as any species
which is in danger of extinction
throughout all or a significant portion of
its range and a threatened species as one
which is likely to become an
endangered species within the
foreseeable future throughout all or a
significant portion of its range. Thus, we
interpret an ‘‘endangered species’’ to be
one that is presently in danger of
extinction. A ‘‘threatened species,’’ on
the other hand, is not presently in
danger of extinction, but is likely to
become so in the foreseeable future (that
is, at a later time). In other words, the
primary statutory difference between a
threatened and endangered species is
the timing of when a species may be in
danger of extinction, either presently
(endangered) or in the foreseeable future
(threatened).
We determine whether any species is
endangered or threatened as a result of
any one or a combination of the
following five factors: The present or
threatened destruction, modification, or
curtailment of its habitat or range;
overutilization for commercial,
recreational, scientific, or educational
purposes; disease or predation; the
inadequacy of existing regulatory
mechanisms; or other natural or
manmade factors affecting its continued
existence (ESA section 4(a)(1)(A)–(E)).
Section 4(b)(1)(A) of the ESA requires us
to make listing determinations based
solely on the best scientific and
commercial data available after
conducting a review of the status of the
species and after taking into account
efforts being made by any State or
foreign nation or political subdivision
thereof to protect the species.
The petition to list Pacific bluefin
tuna identified the risk classification
made by the International Union for
Conservation of Nature (IUCN). The
IUCN assessed the status of Pacific
bluefin tuna and categorized the species
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as ‘‘vulnerable’’ in 2014, meaning that
the species was considered to be facing
a high risk of extinction in the wild
(Collette et al., 2014). Species
classifications under IUCN and the ESA
are not equivalent; data standards,
criteria used to evaluate species, and
treatment of uncertainty are not
necessarily the same. Thus, when a
petition cites such classifications, we
will evaluate the source of information
that the classification is based upon in
light of the ESA’s standards on
extinction risk and threats discussed
above.
Status Review
As part of our comprehensive status
review of the Pacific bluefin tuna, we
formed a status review team (SRT)
comprised of Federal scientists from
NMFS’ Southwest Fisheries Science
Center (SWFSC) having scientific
expertise in tuna and other highly
migratory species biology and ecology,
population estimation and modeling,
fisheries management, conservation
biology, and climatology. We asked the
SRT to compile and review the best
available scientific and commercial
information, and then to: (1) Conduct a
‘‘distinct population segment’’ (DPS)
analysis to determine if there are any
DPSs of Pacific bluefin tuna; (2) identify
whether there are any portions of the
species’ geographic range that are
significant in terms of the species’
overall viability; and (3) evaluate the
extinction risk of the population, taking
into account both threats to the
population and its biological status.
While the petitioner did not request that
we list any particular DPS(s) of the
Pacific bluefin tuna, we decided to
evaluate whether any populations met
the criteria of our DPS Policy, in case
doing so might result in a conservation
benefit to the species. Generally,
however, we opt to consider the species’
rangewide status, rather than
considering whether any DPSs might
exist.
In order to complete the status review,
the SRT considered a variety of
scientific information from the
literature, unpublished documents, and
direct communications with researchers
working on Pacific bluefin tuna, as well
as technical information submitted to
NMFS. Information that was not
previously peer-reviewed was formally
reviewed by the SRT. Only the bestavailable science was considered
further. The SRT evaluated all factors
highlighted by the petitioners as well as
additional factors that may contribute to
Pacific bluefin tuna vulnerability.
In assessing population (stock)
structure and trends in abundance and
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productivity, the SRT relied on the
International Scientific Committee for
Tuna and Tuna-Like Species’ (ISC)
recently completed peer-reviewed stock
assessment (ISC 2016). The ISC was
established in 1995 for the purpose of
enhancing scientific research and
cooperation for conservation and
rational utilization of HMS species of
the North Pacific Ocean, and to
establish the scientific groundwork for
the conservation and rational utilization
of the HMS species in the North Pacific
Ocean. The ISC is currently composed
of scientists representing the following
seven countries: Canada, Chinese
Taipei, Japan, Republic of Korea,
Mexico, People’s Republic of China, and
the United States. The ISC conducts
regular stock assessments to assemble
fishery statistics and biological
information, estimate population
parameters, summarize stock status, and
develop conservation advice. The
results are submitted to Regional
Fishery Management Organizations
(RFMOs), in particular the Western and
Central Pacific Fisheries Commission
(WCPFC) and the Inter-American
Tropical Tuna Commission (IATTC), for
review and are used as a basis of
management actions. NMFS believes the
ISC stock assessment (ISC 2016)
represents best available science
because: (1) It is the only scientifically
based stock assessment of Pacific
bluefin tuna; (2) it was completed by
expert scientists of the ISC, including
key contributions from the United
States; (3) it was peer reviewed; and (4)
we consider the input parameters to the
assessment to represent the best
available data, information, and
assumptions.
The SRT analyzed the status of Pacific
bluefin tuna in a 3-step progressive
process. First, the SRT evaluated 25
individual threats (covering the five
factors in ESA section 4(a)(1)(A)–(E)).
The SRT evaluated how each threat
affects the species and contributes to a
decline or degradation of Pacific bluefin
tuna by ranking each threat in terms of
severity (1–4, with ‘‘1’’ representing the
lowest contribution, and ‘‘4’’
representing the highest contribution).
The threats were evaluated in light of
the Pacific bluefin tuna’s vulnerability
of and exposure to the threat, and its
biological response.
Following the initial rankings of
specific threats, the SRT identified those
threats where the range of rankings
across the SRT was greater than one. For
these threats, subsequent discussions
ensured that the interpretation of the
threat and its time-frame were clear and
consistent across team members. For
example, it was necessary to clarify that
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threats were considered only as they
related to existing management
measures and not historical
management. After clarification, and a
final round of discussion, each team
member provided a final set of severity
rankings for each specific threat.
There were three specific threats
(Illegal, Unregulated, and Unreported
fishing, International Management, and
sea surface temperature rise) for which
the range of severity rankings remained
greater than one after they had been
discussed thoroughly. For these threats
the SRT carried out a Structured Expert
Decision Making process (SEDM) to
determine the final severity rank. In this
SEDM approach, each team member was
asked to apportion 100 plausibility
points across the four levels of severity.
Points were totaled and mean scores
were calculated. The severity level with
the highest mean was determined to be
the final ranking. As will be further
detailed in the Analysis of Threats and
Extinction Risk Analysis sections of this
notice, the SRT also used SEDM in steps
2 and 3 of its analysis.
The purpose of decision structuring is
to provide a rational, thorough, and
transparent decision, the basis for which
is clear to both the decision maker(s)
and to other observers, and to provide
a means to capture uncertainty in the
decision(s). Use of qualitative risk
analysis and structured expert opinion
methods allows for a rigorous decisionmaking process, the defensible use of
expert opinion, and a well-documented
record of how a decision was made.
These tools also accommodate
limitations in human understanding and
allow for problem solving in complex
situations. Risk analysis and other
structured processes require uncertainty
to be dealt with explicitly and biases
controlled for. The information used
may be empirical data, or it may come
from subjective rankings or expert
opinion expressed in explicit terms.
Even in cases where data are sufficient
to allow a quantitative analysis, the
structuring process is important to
clearly link outcomes and decision
standards, and thereby reveal the
reasoning behind the decision.
This initial evaluation of individual
threats and the potential demographic
risk they pose forms the basis of
understanding used during steps 2 and
3 of the SRT’s analysis.
In the second step of its analysis, the
SRT used the same ranking system to
evaluate the risk of each of the five
factors in ESA section 4(a)(1)(A)–(E)
contributing to a decline or degradation
of Pacific bluefin tuna. This involved a
consideration of the combination of all
threats that fall under each of the five
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factors. In the final step, the SRT
evaluated the overall extinction risk for
Pacific bluefin tuna over two
timeframes—25 years and 100 years.
The SRT’s draft status review report
was subjected to independent peer
review as required by the Office of
Management and Budget (OMB) Final
Information Quality Bulletin for Peer
Review (M– 05–03; December 16, 2004).
The draft status review report was peer
reviewed by independent specialists
selected from the academic and
scientific community, with expertise in
tuna and/or highly migratory species
biology, conservation, and management.
The peer reviewers were asked to
evaluate the adequacy, appropriateness,
and application of data used in the
status review report, including the
extinction risk analysis. All peer
reviewer comments were addressed
prior to dissemination and finalization
of the draft status review report and
publication of this finding.
We subsequently reviewed the status
review report, its cited references, and
peer review comments, and believe the
status review report, upon which this
12-month finding is based, provides the
best available scientific and commercial
information on the Pacific bluefin tuna.
Much of the information discussed
below on Pacific bluefin tuna biology,
distribution, abundance, threats, and
extinction risk is attributable to the
status review report. However, in
making the 12-month finding
determination, we have independently
applied the statutory provisions of the
ESA, including evaluation of the factors
set forth in section 4(a)(1)(A)–(E); our
regulations regarding listing
determinations (50 CFR part 424); our
Policy Regarding the Recognition of
Distinct Vertebrate Population Segments
Under the Endangered Species Act (DPS
Policy, 61 FR 4722; February 7, 1996);
and our Final Policy on Interpretation of
the Phrase ‘‘Significant Portion of Its
Range’’ in the Endangered Species Act’s
Definitions of ‘‘Endangered Species’’
and ‘‘Threatened Species (SPR Policy,
79 FR 37578; July 1, 2014).
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Pacific Bluefin Tuna Description, Life
History, and Ecology
Taxonomy and Description of Species
Pacific bluefin tuna (Thunnus
orientalis) belong to the family
Scombridae (order Perciformes). They
are one of three species of bluefin tuna;
the other two are the southern bluefin
tuna (Thunnus maccoyii) and the
Atlantic bluefin tuna (Thunnus
thynnus). The three species can be
distinguished based on internal and
external morphology as described by
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Collette (1999). The three species are
also distinct genetically (Chow and
Inoue 1993; Chow and Kishino 1995)
and have limited overlap in their
geographic ranges.
Pacific bluefin tuna are large
predators reaching nearly 3 meters (m)
in length and 500 kilograms (kg) in
weight (ISC 2016). They are pelagic
species known to form large schools. As
with all tunas and mackerels, Pacific
bluefin tuna are fusiform in shape and
possess numerous adaptations to
facilitate efficient swimming. These
include depressions in the body that
accommodate the retraction of fins to
reduce drag and a lunate tail that is
among the most efficient tail shapes for
generating thrust in sustained
swimming (Bernal et al., 2001).
One of the most unique aspects of
Pacific bluefin tuna biology is their
ability to maintain a body temperature
that is above ambient temperature
(endothermy). While some other tunas
and billfishes are also endothermic,
these adaptations are highly advanced
in the bluefin tunas (Carey et al., 1971;
Graham and Dickson 2001) that can
elevate the temperature of their viscera,
locomotor muscle and cranial region.
The elevation of their body temperature
enables a more efficient energy usage
and allows for the exploitation of a
broader habitat range than would be
available otherwise (Bernal, et al.,
2001).
Range, Habitat Use, and Migration
The Pacific bluefin tuna is a highly
migratory species that is primarily
distributed in sub-tropical and
temperate latitudes of the North Pacific
Ocean (NPO) between 20° N. and 50° N.,
but is occasionally found in tropical
waters and in the southern hemisphere,
in waters around New Zealand (Bayliff
1994).
As members of a pelagic species,
Pacific bluefin tuna use a range of
habitats including open-water, coastal
seas, and seamounts. Pacific bluefin
tuna occur from the surface to depths of
at least 550 m, although they spend
most of their time in the upper 120 m
of the water column (Kitagawa, et al.,
2000; 2004; 2007; Boustany et al. 2010).
As with many other pelagic species,
Pacific bluefin tuna are often found
along frontal zones where forage fish
tend to be concentrated (Kitagawa, et
al., 2009). Off the west coast of the
United States, Pacific bluefin tuna are
often more tightly clustered near areas
of high productivity and more dispersed
in areas of low productivity (Boustany,
et al., 2010).
Pacific bluefin tuna exhibit large
inter-annual variations in movement
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(e.g., numbers of migrants, timing of
migration and migration routes);
however, general patterns of migration
have been established using catch data
and tagging study results (Bayliff 1994;
Boustany et al., 2010; Block et al., 2011;
Whitlock et al., 2015). Pacific bluefin
tuna begin their lives in the western
Pacific Ocean (WPO). Generally, age 0–
1 fish migrate north along the Japanese
and Korean coasts in the summer and
south in the winter (Inagake et al., 2001;
Itoh et al., 2003; Yoon et al., 2012).
Depending on ocean conditions, an
unknown portion of young individuals
(1–3 years old) from the WPO migrate
eastward across the NPO, spending
several years as juveniles in the eastern
Pacific Ocean (EPO) before returning to
the WPO (Bayliff 1994; Inagake et al.,
2001; Perle 2011). Their migration rates
have not been quantified and it is
unknown what proportion of the
population migrates to the EPO and
what factors contribute to the high
degree of variability across years.
While in the EPO, the juveniles make
north-south migrations along the west
coast of North America (Kitagawa et al.,
2007; Boustany et al., 2010; Perle, 2011).
Pacific bluefin tuna tagged in the
California Current span approximately
10° of latitude between Monterey Bay
(36° N.) and northern Baja California
(26° N.) (Boustany et al., 2010; Block et
al., 2011; Whitlock et al., 2015),
although some individuals have been
recorded as far north as Washington.
This migration loosely follows the
seasonal cycle of sea surface
temperature, such that Pacific bluefin
tuna move northward as temperatures
warm in late summer to fall (Block et
al., 2011). These movements also follow
shifts in local peaks in primary
productivity (as measured by surface
chlorophyll) (Boustany et al., 2010;
Block et al., 2011). In the spring, Pacific
bluefin tuna are concentrated off the
southern coast of Baja California; in
summer, Pacific bluefin tuna move
northwest into the Southern California
Bight; by fall, they are largely
distributed between northern Baja
California and northern California. In
winter, Pacific bluefin tuna are
generally more dispersed, with some
individuals remaining near the coast,
and some moving farther offshore
(Boustany et al., 2010).
After spending up to 5 years in the
EPO, individuals return to the WPO
where the only two spawning grounds
(a southern area near the Philippines
and Ryukyu Islands, and a northern area
in the Sea of Japan) have been
documented. No spawning activity,
eggs, or larvae have been observed in
the EPO. The timing of spawning and
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the particular spawning ground used
after their return to the WPO has not
been established. Mature adults in the
WPO generally migrate northwards to
feeding grounds after spawning,
although a small proportion of fish may
move southward or eastward (Itoh
2006). Some of the mature individuals
that migrate south are taken in New
Zealand fisheries (Bayliff 1994, Smith et
al., 2001), but the migration pathway of
these individuals is unknown. It is also
not known how long they may remain
in the South Pacific.
Reproduction and Growth
Like most pelagic fish, Pacific bluefin
tuna are broadcast spawners and spawn
more than once in their lifetime, and
they spawn multiple times in a single
spawning season (Okochi, et al., 2016).
They are highly fecund, and the number
of eggs they release during each
spawning event is positively and
linearly correlated with fish length and
weight (Okochi et al., 2016; Ashida et
al., 2015). Estimates of fecundity for
female tuna from the southern spawning
area (Philippines and Ryukyu Islands)
indicate that individual fish can
produce from 5 to 35 million eggs per
spawning event (Ashida et al., 2015;
Shimose et al., 2016; Chen et al., 2006).
Females in the northern spawning
ground (Sea of Japan) produce 780,000–
13.89 million eggs per spawning event
in fish 116–170 cm fork length (FL)
(Okochi, et al., 2016).
Histological studies have shown that
approximately 80 percent of the
individuals found in the Sea of Japan
from June to August are reproductively
mature (Tanaka, et al., 2006, Okochi et
al., 2016). This percentage does not
necessarily represent the whole
population as fish outside the Sea of
Japan were not examined.
Spawning in Pacific bluefin tuna
occurs in only comparatively warm
waters, so larvae are found within a
relatively narrow sea surface
temperature (SST) range (23.5–29.5 °C)
compared to juveniles and adults
(Kimura et al., 2010; Tanaka & Suzuki
2016). Larvae are thought to be
transported primarily by the northward
flowing Kuroshio Current and are
largely found off coastal Japan, both in
the Pacific Ocean and Sea of Japan
(Kimura et al., 2010).
As discussed above, spawning in
Pacific bluefin tuna has been recorded
only in two locations: Near the
Philippines and Ryukyu Islands, and in
the Sea of Japan (Okochi et al., 2016;
Shimose & Farley 2016). These two
spawning grounds differ in both timing
and the size composition of individuals.
Near the Philippines and Ryukyu
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Islands, spawning occurs from April to
July and fish are from 6–25 years of age,
though most are older than 9 years of
age. In the Sea of Japan, spawning
occurs later (June to August) and fish
are 3–26 years old.
Pacific bluefin tuna exhibit rapid
growth, reaching 58 cm or more in
length by age 1 and frequently more
than 1 m in length by age 3 (Shimose
et al., 2009; Shimose and Ishihara 2015).
The species tends to reach its maximum
length of around 2.3 m at age 15
(Shimose et al., 2009; Shimose and
Ishihara 2015). The oldest Pacific
bluefin tuna recorded was 26 years old
and measured nearly 2.5 m in length
(Shimose et al., 2009).
Feeding habits
Pacific bluefin tuna are opportunistic
feeders. Small individuals (age 0) feed
on small squid and zooplankton
(Shimose et al., 2013). Larger
individuals (age 1+) have a diverse
forage base that is temporally variable
and, in both the EPO and WPO, they
feed on a variety of fishes, cephalopods,
and crustaceans (Pinkas et al., 1971;
Shimose et al., 2013; Madigan et al.,
2016; O. Snodgrass, NMFS SWFSC,
unpublished data). Diet data indicate
they forage in surface waters, on
mesopelagic prey and even on benthic
prey. The SWFSC conducted stomach
content analysis of age 1–5 Pacific
bluefin tuna caught off the coast of
California from 2008 to 2016 and found
that Pacific bluefin tuna are generalists
altering their feeding habits depending
on localized prey abundance (O.
Snodgrass, NMFS SWFSC, unpublished
data).
Species Finding
Based on the best available scientific
and commercial information
summarized above, we find that the
Pacific bluefin tuna is currently
considered a taxonomically-distinct
species and, therefore, meets the
definition of ‘‘species’’ pursuant to
section 3 of the ESA. Below, we
evaluate whether the species warrants
listing as endangered or threatened
under the ESA throughout all or a
significant portion of its range.
Distinct Population Segment
Determination
While we were not petitioned to list
a distinct population segment (DPS) of
the Pacific bluefin tuna and are
therefore not required to identify DPSs,
we decided, in this case, to evaluate
whether any populations of the species
meet the DPS Policy criteria. As
described above, the ESA’s definition of
‘‘species’’ includes ‘‘any subspecies of
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37063
fish or wildlife or plants, and any
distinct population segment of any
species of vertebrate fish or wildlife
which interbreeds when mature.’’ The
DPS Policy requires the consideration of
two elements: (1) The discreteness of
the population segment in relation to
the remainder of the species to which it
belongs; and (2) the significance of the
population segment to the species to
which it belongs.
A population segment of a vertebrate
species may be considered discrete if it
satisfies either one of the following
conditions: (1) It is markedly separated
from other populations of the same
taxon as a consequence of physical,
physiological, ecological, or behavioral
factors. Quantitative measures of genetic
or morphological discontinuity may
provide evidence of this separation; or
(2) it is delimited by international
governmental boundaries within which
differences in control of exploitation,
management of habitat, conservation
status, or regulatory mechanisms exist
that are significant in light of section
4(a)(1)(D) of the ESA. If a population
segment is found to be discrete under
one or both of the above conditions, its
biological and ecological significance to
the taxon to which it belongs is
evaluated. Factors that can be
considered in evaluating significance
may include, but are not limited to: (1)
Persistence of the discrete population
segment in an ecological setting unusual
or unique for the taxon; (2) evidence
that the loss of the discrete population
segment would result in a significant
gap in the range of a taxon; (3) evidence
that the discrete population segment
represents the only surviving natural
occurrence of a taxon that may be more
abundant elsewhere as an introduced
population outside its historic range; or
(4) evidence that the discrete population
segment differs markedly from other
populations of the species in its genetic
characteristics.
Pacific bluefin tuna are currently
managed as a single stock with a transPacific range. We considered a number
of factors related to Pacific bluefin tuna
movement patterns, geographic range,
and life history that relate to the
discreteness criteria. Among the many
characteristics of Pacific bluefin tuna
that were discussed as contributing
factors to the determination of ESA
discreteness, three were regarded as
carrying the most weight in the
identification of DPSs. The strongest
argument for the existence of a DPS was
the spatial specificity of Pacific bluefin
tuna spawning. The strongest arguments
against the existence of a DPS included
Pacific bluefin tuna migratory behavior
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and genetic characteristics of the Pacific
bluefin tuna.
Based on the current understanding of
Pacific bluefin tuna movements, Pacific
bluefin tuna use one of two areas in the
WPO to spawn. There is no evidence to
suggest that these represent two separate
populations but rather that, as fish
increase in size, they shift from using
the Sea of Japan to using the spawning
ground near the Ryukyu Islands (e.g.,
Shimose et al., 2016). The spawning
areas are also characterized by physical
oceanographic conditions (e.g.,
temperature), rather than a spatially
fixed feature (e.g., a seamount or
promontory). This implies that the
location of the spawning grounds may
be temporally and spatially fluid, as
conditions change over time. Given
these considerations, the existence of
two spatially distinct spawning grounds
does not provide compelling evidence
that discrete population segments exist
for Pacific bluefin tuna. In addition,
concentrations of adult Pacific bluefin
tuna on the spawning grounds are found
only during spawning times and not
year-round.
Catch data and conventional and
electronic tagging data demonstrate the
highly migratory nature of Pacific
bluefin tuna. Results support broad
mixing around the Pacific. While fish
cross the Pacific from the WPO to the
EPO, results indicate that they then
return to the WPO to spawn.
Furthermore, the limited genetic data
currently available (Tseng et al., 2012;
Nomura et al., 2014) do not support the
presence of genetically distinct
population segments within the Pacific
bluefin tuna.
Pacific Bluefin Tuna Stock Assessment
The ISC stock assessment presented
population dynamics of Pacific bluefin
tuna based on catch per unit effort data
from 1952–2015 using a fully integrated
age-structured model. The model
included various life-history parameters
including a length/age relationship and
natural mortality estimates from tagrecapture and empirical life-history
studies. Specific details on the
modelling methods can be found in the
ISC stock assessment available at https://
isc.fra.go.jp/reports/stock_
assessments.html.
The 2016 ISC Pacific bluefin tuna
stock assessment indicated three major
trends: (1) Spawning stock biomass
(SSB) fluctuated from 1952–2014; (2)
SSB declined from 1996 to 2010; and (3)
the decline in SSB has ceased since
2010 yet remains near to its historical
low.
Based on the stock assessment model,
the 2014 SSB was estimated to be
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around 17,000 mt, which represents
143,053 individuals capable of
spawning. Relative to the theoretical,
model-derived SSB had there been no
fishing (i.e., the ‘‘unfished’’ SSB;
644,466 mt), 17,000 mt represents
approximately 2.6 percent of fish in the
spawning year classes. It is important to
note that unfished SSB is a theoretical
number derived from the stock
assessment model and does not
represent a ‘‘true’’ estimate of what the
SSB would have been with no fishing.
This is because it is based on the
equilibrium assumptions of the model
(e.g., no environmental or densitydependent effects) and it changes with
model structures. That is, in the absence
of density-dependent effects on the
population, the estimate may
overestimate the population size that
can be supported by the environment
and may change with improved input
parameters. When compared to the
highest SSB of 160,004 mt estimated by
the model in 1959, the SSB in 2014 is
10.6 percent of the 1952–2014 historical
peak.
It is important to note that while the
SSB as estimated by the ISC stock
assessment is 2.6 percent of the
theoretical, model-derived, ‘‘unfished’’
SSB, this value is based on a theoretical
unfished population, and only includes
fish of spawning size/age. Based on the
estimated number of individuals at each
age class, the number of individuals
capable of spawning in 2014 was
143,053. However, total population size,
including non-spawning capable
individuals that have not yet reached
spawning age, is estimated at 1,625,837.
This yields an 8 percent ratio of
spawning-capable individuals to total
population. From 1952–2014, this ratio
has ranged from 28 percent in 1960 to
2.5 percent in 1984, with a mean of 8
percent. The ratio in 2014 indicates that,
relative to population size, there were
more spawning-capable fish than in
some years even with a similarly low
total population size (e.g., 1982–84), and
the ratio was at the average for the
period 1952–2014.
The 2016 ISC stock assessment was
also used to project changes in SSB
through the year 2034. The assessment
evaluated 11 scenarios in which various
management strategies were altered
from the status quo (e.g., reduction in
landings of smaller vs. larger
individuals) and recruitment scenarios
were variable (e.g., low to high
recruitment). None of these 11 scenarios
resulted in a projected reduction in SSB
through fishing year 2034.
The stock assessment also indicates
that Pacific bluefin tuna is overfished
and that overfishing is occurring. This
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assessment, however, is based on the
abundance of the species through 2014.
As described in the following section on
existing regulatory measures, the first
Pacific bluefin tuna regulations that
placed limits on harvest were
implemented in 2012 with additional
regulations implemented in 2014 and
2015.
Summary of Factors Affecting Pacific
Bluefin Tuna
As described above, section 4(a)(1) of
the ESA and NMFS’ implementing
regulations (50 CFR 424.11(c)) state that
we must determine whether a species is
endangered or threatened because of
any one or a combination of the
following factors: The present or
threatened destruction, modification, or
curtailment of its habitat or range;
overutilization for commercial,
recreational, scientific, or educational
purposes; disease or predation;
inadequacy of existing regulatory
mechanisms; or other natural or
manmade factors affecting its continued
existence. We evaluated whether and
the extent to which each of the
foregoing factors contribute to the
overall extinction risk of Pacific bluefin
tuna, with a ‘‘significant’’ contribution
defined, for purposes of this evaluation,
as increasing the risk to such a degree
that the factor affects the species’
demographics (i.e., abundance,
productivity, spatial structure, diversity)
either to the point where the species is
strongly influenced by stochastic or
depensatory processes or is on a
trajectory toward this point.
For their extinction risk analysis, the
SRT members evaluated threats and the
extinction risk over two time frames.
The SRT used 25 years (∼3 generations
for Pacific bluefin tuna) for the short
time frame and 100 years (∼13
generations) for the long time frame.
The SRT concluded that the short time
frame was a realistic window to
evaluate current effects of potential
threats with a good degree of reliability,
especially when considering the limits
of population forecasting models (e.g.,
projected population trends in stock
assessment models). The SRT also
concluded that 100 years was a more
realistic window through which to
evaluate the effects of a threat in the
more distant future that, by nature, may
not be able to be evaluated over shorter
time periods. For example, the potential
effects of climate change from external
forces are best considered on multidecadal to centennial timescales, due to
the predominance of natural variability
in determining environmental
conditions in the shorter term.
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The following sections briefly
summarize our findings and
conclusions regarding threats to the
Pacific bluefin tuna and their impact on
the overall extinction risk of the species.
More details can be found in the status
review report, which is incorporated
here by reference.
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A. The Present or Threatened
Destruction, Modification, or
Curtailment of Its Habitat or Range
Water Pollution
Given their highly migratory nature,
Pacific bluefin tuna may be exposed to
a variety of contaminants and
pollutants. Pollutants vary in terms of
their concentrations and composition
depending on location, with higher
concentrations typically occurring in
coastal waters. There are two classes of
pollutants in the sea that are most
prevalent and that could pose potential
risks to Pacific bluefin tuna: Persistent
Organic Pollutants (POPs) and mercury.
However, the SRT also considered
Fukushima derived radiation and oil
pollution as independent threats.
Persistent organic pollutants are
organic compounds that are resistant to
environmental degradation and are most
often derived from pesticides, solvents,
pharmaceuticals, or industrial
chemicals. Common POPs in the marine
environment include the organochlorine
Dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT)
and Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs).
Because they are not readily broken
down and enter the food-web, POPs
tend to bioaccumulate in marine
organisms. In fishes, some POPs have
been shown to impair reproductive
function (e.g., white croaker; Cross et
al., 1988; Hose et al., 1989).
Specific information on POPs in
Pacific bluefin tuna is limited. Ueno et
al. (2002) examined the accumulation of
POPs (e.g., PCBs, DDTs, and chlordanes
(CHLs)) in the livers of Pacific bluefin
tuna collected from coastal Japan. They
determined, as expected, that the uptake
of these organochlorines was driven by
dietary uptake rather than through
exposure to contaminated water (i.e.,
through the gills). This research showed
that levels of organochlorines were
positively and linearly correlated with
body length. Body length normalized
values for PCBs, DDTs, and CHLs were
calculated as 530–2,600 ng/g lipid
weight, 660–800 ng/g lipid weight, and
87–300 ng/g lipid weight, respectively.
More recently, Chiesa et al. (2016)
measured pollutants from Pacific
bluefin tuna in the Western Central
Pacific Ocean and found that 100
percent of the individuals sampled
tested positive for five of the six PCBs
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assayed. Three POPs (specifically,
polybrominated diphenyl ethers) were
detected in 5–60 percent of fish
examined. Two organochlorines were
detected in 30–80 percent of samples.
Unlike the findings of Ueno et al. (2002)
from coastal Japan, no DDT or its endproducts were detected in Pacific
bluefin tuna in the Western Central
Pacific Ocean.
While POPs have been detected in the
tissues of Pacific bluefin tuna (see
above), much higher levels have been
measured in other marine fish (e.g.,
pelagic sharks; Lyons et al., 2015).
While there is a lack of direct
experimentation on the potential
impacts of POPs on Pacific bluefin tuna,
there are currently no studies which
indicate that they exist at levels that are
harmful to Pacific bluefin tuna. Based
on the findings in the status review, we
conclude that POPs pose no to low risk
of contributing to a decline or
degradation of the Pacific bluefin tuna.
Mercury (Hg) enters the oceans
primarily through the atmosphere-water
interface. Initial sources of Hg are both
natural and anthropogenic. One of the
main sources of anthropogenic Hg is
coal-fired power-plants. Total Hg
emissions to the atmosphere have been
estimated at 6,500–8,200 Mg/yr, of
which 4,600–5,300 Mg/yr (50–75
percent) are from natural sources
(Driscoll et al., 2013). In water,
elemental Hg is converted to methyl-Hg
by bacteria. Once methylated, Hg is
easily absorbed by plankton and thus
enters the marine food-web. As with
POPs, Hg bioaccumulates and
concentrations increase in higher
trophic level organisms.
As a top predator, Pacific bluefin tuna
can potentially accumulate high levels
of Hg. Several studies have examined
Hg in Pacific bluefin tuna and reported
a wide range of concentrations that vary
based on geographic location. In the
WPO, measured Hg concentrations
ranged from 0.66–3.23 mg/g wet mass
(Hisamichi et al., 2010; Yamashita et al.,
2005), whereas in the EPO they ranged
from 0.31–0.508 mg/g wet mass (Lares et
al., 2012; Coman et al., 2015). The latter
study demonstrated that in the EPO
individuals that had recently arrived
from the WPO contained higher Hg
concentrations than those that had
resided in the EPO for 1–3 years,
including wild-caught individuals being
raised in net pens. By comparison,
concentrations of Hg in Atlantic bluefin
tuna have been measured at 0.25–3.15
mg/kg wet mass (Lee et al., 2016).
Notably, Lee et al. (2016) demonstrated
that Hg concentrations in Atlantic
bluefin tuna declined 19 percent over an
8-year period from the 1990s to the early
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37065
2000s, a result of reduced anthropogenic
Hg emissions in North America. Tunas
are also known to accumulate high
levels of selenium (Se), which is
suggested to have a detoxifying effect on
methyl-Hg compounds (reviewed in
Ralston et al., 2016).
The petitioners suggest that since
some bluefin products are above 1 ppm,
the U.S. Food and Drug
Administration’s (FDA) threshold, there
is cause for concern with regard to
bluefin tuna health. The FDA levels are
set at the point at which consumption
is not recommended for children and
women of child bearing age and are not
linked to fish health. While methyl Hg
compounds have been shown to cause
neurobiological changes in a variety of
animals, there have been no studies on
tuna or tuna-like species showing
detrimental effects from methyl Hg. As
with the POPs, other marine species
have much higher levels of Hg
contamination (Montiero and Lopes
1990; Lyons et al., 2015). The SRT was
unanimous in the determination that Hg
contamination does not pose a direct
threat to Pacific bluefin tuna.
We find that water pollution poses no
risk of contributing to a decline or
degradation of the Pacific bluefin tuna.
While we acknowledge that
bioaccumulation of pollutants in Pacific
bluefin tuna may result in some risk to
consumers, the absence of empirical
studies showing that water pollution
has direct effects on Pacific bluefin tuna
implies that water pollution is not a
high risk for Pacific bluefin tuna
themselves.
Plastic Pollution
Plastics have become a major source
of pollution on a global scale and in all
major marine habitats (Law 2017). In
2014, global plastic production was
estimated to be 311 million metric tons
(mt) (Plast. Eur. 2015). Plastics are the
most abundant material collected as
floating marine debris or from beaches
(Law et al., 2010; Law 2017) and are
known to occur on the seafloor. Impacts
on the marine environment vary with
type of plastic debris. Larger plastic
debris can cause entanglement leading
to injury or death, while ingestion of
smaller plastic debris has the potential
to cause injury to the digestive tract or
accumulation of indigestible material in
the gut. Studies have also shown that
chemical pollutants may be adsorbed
into plastic debris which would provide
an additional pathway for exposure
(e.g., Chua et al., 2014). Small plastics
(microplastics) have been documented
as the primary source of ingested plastic
materials among fish species,
particularly opportunistic planktivores
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(e.g., Rochman et al., 2013; 2014;
Matsson et al., 2015). Few studies have
examined microplastic ingestion by
larger predatory fishes such as Pacific
bluefin tuna and results from these
studies are mixed.
Cannon et al. (2016) found no
evidence of plastics in the digestive
tracts of skipjack tuna (Katsuwonis
pelamis) and blue mackerel (Scomber
australensis) in Tasmania. Choy and
Drazen (2013) found no evidence of
plastic ingestion in K. pelamis and
yellowfin tuna (Thunnus albacares) in
Hawaiian waters, but found that
approximately 33 percent of bigeye tuna
(Thunnus obesus) had anthropogenic
plastic debris in their stomachs. While
no specific studies on plastic ingestion
in Pacific bluefin tuna are available, a
study of foraging ecology in the EPO
found no plastic in over 500 stomachs
examined from 2008–2016 (O.
Snodgrass, NMFS, unpublished data).
We find that plastic ingestion by
Pacific bluefin tuna poses no to low risk
of contributing to a decline or
degradation of the Pacific bluefin tuna.
This was based in large part upon the
absence of empirical evidence of large
amounts of macro- and micro-plastic
directly impacting individual Pacific
bluefin tuna health.
Oil and Gas Development
There are numerous examples of oil
and gas exploration and operations
posing a threat to marine organisms and
habitats. Threats include seismic
activities during exploration and
construction and events such as oil
spills or uncontrolled natural gas escape
where released chemicals can have
severe and immediate effects on
wildlife.
Unfortunately, there is limited
information on the direct impacts of oil
and gas exploration and operation on
pelagic fishes such as Pacific bluefin
tuna. Studies looking at the impacts of
seismic exploration on fish have mixed
results. Wardle et al. (2001) and Popper
et al. (2005) documented low to
moderate impacts on behavior or
hearing, whereas McCauley et al. (2003)
reported long-term hearing loss from airgun exposure. Risk associated with
seismic exploration would likely be less
of a concern for highly migratory
species that can move away and do not
use sounds to communicate. Reduced
catch rates in areas for a period of time
after air guns have been used are
considered evidence for this avoidance
behavior in a range of species (Popper
and Hastings 2009).
The effects of seismic exploration on
larval Pacific bluefin tuna, however,
could be greater than on older
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individuals due in part to the reduced
capacity of larvae to move away from
affected areas. Davies et al. (1989) stated
that fish eggs and larvae can be killed
at sound levels of 226–234 decibel (dB),
which are typically found at 0.6–3.0 m
from an air gun such as those used
during seismic exploration. Visual
damage to larvae can occur at 216 dB,
levels found approximately 5 m from
the air gun. Less obvious impacts such
as disruptions to developing organs are
harder to gauge and are little explored
in the scientific literature; however,
severe physical damage or mortality
appears to be limited to larvae within a
few meters of an air gun discharge
(Dalen et al., 1987; Patin & Cascio 1999).
The most relevant study, for the
purposes of the SRT, is an evaluation of
the impacts of oil pollution on the larval
stage of Atlantic bluefin tuna. Oil
released from the 2010 Deepwater
Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico
covered approximately 10 percent of the
spawning habitat, prompting concerns
about larval survival (Muhling et al.,
2012). Modeled western Atlantic bluefin
tuna recruitment for 2010 was low
compared to historical values, but it is
not yet clear whether this was primarily
due to oil-induced mortality, or
unfavorable oceanographic conditions
(Domingues et al., 2016). Results from
laboratory studies showed that exposure
to oil resulted in significant defects in
heart development in larval Atlantic
bluefin tuna (Incardona et al., 2014)
with a likely reduction in fitness. A
similar response would be expected in
Pacific bluefin tuna. Consequently, an
oil spill in or around the spawning
grounds has the potential to impact
larval survival of Pacific bluefin tuna.
Previous spills near the spawning
grounds have mostly been from ships
(e.g., Varlamov et al., 1999; Chiau 2005),
and have resulted in much smaller,
more coastally confined releases into
the marine environment than from the
Deepwater Horizon incident. However,
offshore oil exploration has increased in
the region in recent years, potentially
increasing the risks of a large-scale spill.
Despite these considerations, the overall
risks to Pacific bluefin tuna associated
with an oil spill were considered to be
low for a number of reasons: (1) Large
oil spills are rare events; (2) Pacific
bluefin tuna larvae are spread over two
spawning grounds with little
oceanographic connectivity between
them, reducing risk to the population as
a whole; and (3) the population is
broadly dispersed overall.
Oil and gas infrastructure may have
beneficial impacts on the marine
environment by providing habitat for a
range of species and de facto no fishing
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zones. California has been a prime area
of research into the effects of
decommissioned oil platforms. Claisse
et al. (2014) showed that offshore oil
platforms have the highest measured
fish production of any habitat in the
world, exceeding even coral reefs and
estuaries. Caselle et al. (2002) showed
that even remnant oil field debris (e.g.,
defunct pipe lines, piers, and associated
structures) harbored diverse fish
communities. This pattern is not unique
to California. For example, Fabi et al.
(2004) showed that fish diversity and
richness increased within the first year
after installation of two gas platforms in
the Adriatic Sea, and that biomass of
fishes on these platforms was
substantial. Consequently, oil platforms
may provide forage and refuge for
Pacific bluefin tuna.
In summary, we consider oil and gas
development to pose no to low risk of
contributing to a decline or degradation
of the Pacific bluefin tuna.
Wind Energy Development
Concerns about climate impacts
linked to the use of petroleum products
has led to an increase in renewable
energy programs over the past two
decades. Offshore and coastal wind
energy generating stations have been
among the fastest growing renewable
energy sectors, particularly in shallow
coastal areas, which generally have
consistent wind patterns and reduced
infrastructure costs due to shallow
depths and proximity to land.
Impacts of wind energy generating
stations on marine fauna have been well
¨
studied (see Koppel, 2017 for examples).
There have been some studies
predicting negative effects on marine
life, particularly birds and benthic
organisms, but few empirical studies
have demonstrated direct impacts to
fishes. Wilson et al. (2010) reviewed
numerous papers discussing the impacts
of wind energy infrastructure and
concluded that while they are not
environmentally benign, the impacts are
minor and can often be ameliorated by
proper placement.
Studies on wind energy development
and its impact on fishes has largely
focused on demersal species
assemblages. Similar to oil and gas
platforms, wind energy platforms have
been shown to have a positive effect on
demersal fish communities in that they
tend to harbor high diversity and
biomass of fish populations (e.g.,
Wilhelmsson et al., 2006). Following
construction of ‘‘wind farms,’’ one
particular concern has been the effects
of noise created by the operating
mechanisms on fish. Wahlberg and
Westerberg (2005) concluded that wind
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farm noise does not have any
destructive effects on the hearing ability
of fish, even within a few meters. The
major impact of the noise is largely
restricted to masking communication
between fish species which use sounds
(Wahlberg and Westerberg, 2005). Given
that Pacific bluefin tuna are not known
to use sounds for communication, the
impact of noise would be minimal if
any. Additionally, wind farms are likely
to serve as de facto fish aggregating
devices and may prove beneficial at
attracting prey and thus Pacific bluefin
tuna as well. Also, given the highly
migratory nature of Pacific bluefin tuna
and their broad range, wind farms
would not take up a large portion of
their range and could be avoided.
We find that wind energy
development poses no to low risk of
contributing to a decline or degradation
of the Pacific bluefin tuna. This was
based largely on the ability of Pacific
bluefin tuna to avoid wind farms and
the absence of empirical evidence
showing harm directly to Pacific bluefin
tuna.
Large-Scale Aquaculture
Operation of coastal aquaculture
facilities can degrade local water
quality, mostly through uneaten fish
feed and feces, leading to nutrient
pollution. The severity of these issues
depends on the species being farmed,
food composition and uptake efficiency,
fish density in net pens, and the
location and design of pens (Naylor et
al., 2005). There are several offshore
culture facilities throughout the world,
most being within 25 kilometers (km) of
shore.
The petition by CBD highlights a
proposed offshore aquaculture facility
in California as a potential threat to
Pacific bluefin tuna. The proposed Rose
Canyon aquaculture project would
construct a facility to raise yellowtail
jack approximately 7 km from the San
Diego coast. The high capacity of the
proposed project (reaching up to 5,000
mt annually after 8 years of operation)
has raised concerns about resulting
impacts to the surrounding marine
environment. As the proposed
aquaculture facility would act as a point
source of pollutants, the potential
impacts to widely distributed pelagic
species such as Pacific bluefin tuna will
depend on oceanographic dispersal of
these pollutants within the Southern
California Bight (SCB) and surrounding
regions.
Data from current meters and
Acoustic Doppler Current Profilers
(ADCPs) near Point Loma have recorded
seasonally reversing, and highly
variable, alongshore flows (Hendricks
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1977; Carson et al., 2010). However,
cross-shelf currents were much weaker.
Similarly, Lahet and Stramski (2010)
showed that river plumes in the San
Diego area identified by satellite ocean
color imagery moved variably north or
south along the coast until dispersing,
but were not advected offshore. Recent
studies using high-resolution
simulations of a regional oceanic
modeling system have also shown
limited connectivity between the
nearshore region off San Diego and the
open SCB (Dong et al., 2009; Mitari et
al., 2009). This suggests that pollutants
resulting from the proposed Rose
Canyon aquaculture facility would
likely be dispersed along the southern
California and northern Baja California
coasts rather than offshore. Pacific
bluefin tuna are distributed throughout
much of the California Current
ecosystem, and are often caught more
than 100 km from shore (Holbeck et al.,
2017). Tagging studies have also shown
very broad habitat use of Pacific bluefin
tuna offshore of Baja California and
California (Boustany et al., 2010). It
should be noted that any aquaculture
facilities in the United States are
subjected to rigorous environmental
reviews and standards prior to being
permitted.
We find that habitat degradation from
large-scale aquaculture poses no to low
risk of contributing to population
decline or degradation in Pacific bluefin
tuna over both time-scales largely due to
the very small proportion of their
habitat which would be impacted as
well as the absence of empirical
evidence showing harm directly to
Pacific bluefin tuna.
Prey Depletion
As highly migratory, fast-swimming
top predators, tunas have relatively high
energy requirements (Olson and Boggs
1986; Korsmeyer and Dewar 2001;
Whitlock et al., 2013; Golet et al., 2015).
They fulfill these needs by feeding on a
wide range of vertebrate and
invertebrate prey, the relative
contribution of which varies by species,
region, and time period. Pacific bluefin
tuna in the California Current ecosystem
have been shown to prey on forage fish
such as anchovy, as well as squid and
crustaceans (Pinkas et al., 1971;
Snodgrass et al., unpublished data). As
commercial fisheries also target some of
these species, substantial removals
could conceivably reduce the prey base
for predators such as Pacific bluefin
tuna. Previous studies have used trophic
ecosystem models to show that high
rates of fishing on forage species could
adversely impact other portions of the
ecosystem, including higher-order
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predators (Smith et al., 2011; Pikitch et
al., 2012).
Biomass of the two main forage fish
in the California Current, sardine and
anchovy, has been low in recent years
(Lindegren et al., 2013; Lluch-Cota
2013). This likely represents part of the
natural cycle of these species, which
appear to undergo frequent ‘‘boom and
bust’’ cycles, even in the absence of
industrial-scale fishing (Schwartzlose et
al., 1999; McClatchie et al., 2017).
Pacific bluefin tuna appear to be
generalists and consequently are less
impacted by these shifts in abundance
than specialists. Pinkas et al. (1971)
found that Pacific bluefin tuna diets in
the late 1960s were mostly anchovy
(>80 percent), coinciding with a period
of relatively high anchovy biomass. In
contrast, more recent data from the
2000s show a much higher dominance
of squid and crustaceans in Pacific
bluefin tuna diets, with high
interannual variability (Snodgrass et al.,
unpublished data). Neither study
recorded a substantial contribution of
sardine to Pacific bluefin tuna diets, but
both diet studies (Pinkas et al.,
Snodgrass et al., unpublished data) were
conducted during years in which
sardine biomass was comparatively low.
This ability to switch between prey
species may be one reason why Hilborn
et al. (2017) found little evidence that
forage fish population fluctuations drive
biomass of higher order consumers,
including tunas. This disconnect is clear
for Pacific bluefin tuna. For example, in
the 1980s, Pacific bluefin tuna biomass
and recruitment were both very low, but
forage fish abundances in both the
California Current and KuroshioOyashio ecosystems were high
(Lindegren et al., 2013; Yatsu et al.,
2014). Hilborn et al. (2017) considered
that a major weakness of previous
trophic studies was a lack of
consideration of this strongly
fluctuating nature of forage fish
populations through time. Predators
have thus likely adapted to high
variability in abundance of forage fish
and other prey species by being
generalists.
However, although Pacific bluefin
tuna have a broad and varied prey base
in the California Current, the
physiological effects of switching
between dominant prey types are not
well known. Some species are more
energy-rich than others, and may have
lower metabolic costs to catch and
digest (Olson & Boggs 1986; Whitlock et
al., 2013). Fluctuations in the energy
content and size spectra of a prey
species may also be important, as was
found for the closely-related Atlantic
bluefin tuna (Golet et al., 2015). It is
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therefore not yet clear how periods of
strong reliance on anchovy vs.
invertebrates, for example, may impact
the condition and fitness of Pacific
bluefin tuna.
We find that prey depletion poses a
very low threat to Pacific bluefin tuna
over the 25-year time frame, primarily
because it is clear that they are generally
adapted to natural fluctuations of forage
fish biomass through prey switching.
We also find that prey depletion may
pose a low to moderate threat over the
100-year timeframe, albeit with low
certainty. This was mainly because
climate change is expected to alter
ecosystem structure and function to
produce potentially novel conditions,
over an evolutionarily short time period.
If this results in a less favorable prey
base for Pacific bluefin tuna, in either
the California Current or other foraging
areas, impacts on the population may be
more deleterious than they have been in
the past.
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B. Overutilization for Commercial,
Recreational, Scientific or Educational
Purposes
Potential threats to the Pacific bluefin
tuna from overutilization for
commercial, recreational, scientific or
educational purposes also includes
illegal, unregulated and unreported
fishing. Each of these potential threats is
discussed in the following sections.
Commercial Fishing
Commercial fishing for Pacific bluefin
tuna has occurred in the western Pacific
since at least the late 1800s. Records
from Japan indicate that several
methods were used prior to 1952 when
catch records began to be taken in
earnest and included longline, pole and
line, drift net, and set net fisheries.
Estimates of global landings prior to
1952 peaked around 47,635 mt (36,217
mt in the WPO and 11,418 mt in the
EPO) in 1935 (Muto et al., 2008). After
1935, landings dropped in response to
a shift in maritime activities caused by
World War II. Fishing activities
expanded across the North Pacific
Ocean after the conclusion of the war,
and landings increased consistently for
the next decade prior to becoming more
variable (Muto et al., 2008).
There are currently five major
contributors to the Pacific bluefin tuna
fisheries: Japan, Korea, Mexico, Taiwan,
and the United States. Each operates in
nearshore coastal waters in the Pacific
Ocean while a few also operate in
distant offshore waters. In modern
fisheries, Pacific bluefin tuna are taken
by a wide range of fishing gears (e.g.,
longline, purse seine, set net, troll, poleand-line, drift nets, and hand line
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fisheries), which target different size
classes (see below). Among these
fisheries, purse seine fisheries are
currently the primary contributor to
landings, with the Japanese fleet being
responsible for the majority of the catch.
Much of the global purse-seine catch
supports commercial grow-out facilities
where fish aged approximately 1–3 are
kept in floating pens for fattening prior
to sale.
Estimates of landings indicate that
annual catches of Pacific bluefin tuna by
country have fluctuated dramatically
from 1952–2015. During this period
reported catches from the five major
contributors to the ISC peaked at 40,144
mt in 1956 and reached a low of 8,627
mt in 1990, with an average of 21,955
mt. Japanese fisheries are responsible
for the majority of landings, followed by
Mexico, the United States, Korea and
Taiwan. In 2014, the United States
reported commercial landings of 408 mt,
Taiwan reported 525 mt, Korea reported
1,311 mt, Mexico reported 4,862 mt, and
Japan reported 9,573 mt. These
represent 2.4 percent, 3 percent, 7.7
percent, 28.4 percent, and 56 percent of
the total landings, respectively.
Landings in the southern hemisphere
are small and concentrated around New
Zealand.
The commercial Japanese Pacific
bluefin tuna fisheries are comprised of
both distant-water and coastal longline
vessels, coastal trolling vessels, coastal
pole-and-line vessels, coastal set net
vessels, coastal hand line vessels, and
purse seiners. Each fishery targets
specific age classes of Pacific bluefin
tuna: Coastal trolling and pole and line
target fish less than 1 year old, coastal
set net and coastal hand-line target ages
1–5, purse seiners target ages 0–10, and
the distant-water and coastal longline
vessels target ages 5–20. The distant
water longline fisheries have operated
for the longest time while the coastal
longline fisheries did not begin in
earnest until the mid-1960s. Between
1952 and 2015, total annual catches by
Japanese fisheries have fluctuated
between a maximum of approximately
34,000 mt in 1956 and a minimum of
approximately 6,000 mt in 2012, and
they have averaged 15,653 mt.
The Japanese troll fleet harvests small,
age-0 Pacific bluefin tuna for its
commercial aquaculture grow-out
facilities. From 2005–2015, the harvest
of Pacific bluefin tuna for grow-out by
the troll fishery has averaged 14 percent
of Japan’s total landings (approximately
8.5 percent of global landings) by
weight.
Nearly all commercial Pacific bluefin
tuna catches by U.S. flagged vessels on
the west coast of the United States are
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landed in California. Historically, the
commercial fisheries for Pacific bluefin
tuna focused their efforts on the fishing
grounds off Baja California, Mexico,
until the 1980s. Following the creation
of Mexico’s EEZ, the U.S. purse seine
fisheries largely ceased their efforts in
Mexico and became more opportunistic
(Aires-da-Silva et al., 2007). Since 1980,
commercial landings of Pacific bluefin
tuna have fluctuated dramatically,
averaging 859.2 mt with two peaks in
1986 (4,731.4 mt) and 1996 (4,687.6 mt).
The low catch rates are not caused by
the absence of Pacific bluefin tuna, but
rather the absence of a dedicated
fishery, low market price, and the
inability to fish in the Mexican EEZ. In
2014, commercial landings of Pacific
bluefin tuna in the United States were
408 mt, representing 2.4 percent of the
total global landings.
Mexico’s harvest of Pacific bluefin
tuna is dominated by its purse seine
fisheries, which dramatically increased
in size following the creation of
Mexico’s EEZ. While most of the purse
seine fisheries target yellowfin tuna (the
dominant species in the catch) in
tropical waters, Pacific bluefin tuna are
caught by purse seine near Baja
California. Since 1952, reported
landings in Mexico have ranged from 1–
9,927 mt with an average of 1,766.7 mt
(ISC catch database https://isc.fra.go.jp/
fisheries_statistics/). Since
grow-out facilities began in Mexico in
1997, the purse seine fishery for Pacific
bluefin tuna almost exclusively
supports these facilities. These facilities
take in age 1–3 Pacific bluefin tuna and
‘‘fatten’’ them in floating pens for export
and represent virtually all of Mexico’s
reported capture of Pacific bluefin tuna.
From 2005–2015, Mexico’s harvest for
its grow-out facilities has averaged 26.8
percent of the global landings.
The Korean take of Pacific bluefin
tuna is dominated by its offshore purse
seine fishery with a small contribution
by the coastal troll fisheries. The
fisheries generally operate off Jeju Island
with occasional forays into the Yellow
Sea (Yoon et al., 2014). The purse seine
fisheries did not fully develop until the
mid-1990s, and landings were below
500 mt prior to this. Landings gradually
increased and peaked at 2,601 mt in
2003, but have declined since then, with
676 mt landed in 2015. Since 1952, the
average reported Korean landings of
Pacific bluefin tuna has been 535 mt
(data not reported from 1952–1971).
Historically, the Taiwanese fisheries
have used a wide array of gears, but
since the early 1990s the fisheries are
largely comprised of small-scale
longline vessels. These vessels are
targeting fish on the spawning grounds
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near the Ryukyu Islands. The highest
reported catch was in 1990 at 3,000 mt;
however, landings declined to less than
1,000 mt in 2008 and to their lowest
level of about 200 mt in 2012. Landings
have since increased and the
preliminary estimate of Pacific bluefin
tuna landings in 2015 was 542 mt. Since
1952, Taiwanese landings of Pacific
bluefin tuna have averaged 658 mt.
We acknowledge the Petitioner’s
concern that a large proportion of
Pacific bluefin tuna caught are between
0 and 2 years of age. The petition states
that 97.6 percent of fish are caught
before they have a chance to reproduce,
and argues that this is a worrisome
example of growth overfishing. The
interpretation of the severity of this
statement requires acknowledging
several factors that are used to evaluate
the production (amount of ‘‘new’’ fish
capable of being produced by the
current stock). Importantly, the estimate
of production includes considering
factors such as recruitment, growth of
individuals (thus moving from one age
class to the next and potentially
reaching sexual maturity), catch, and
natural mortality. Excluding all other
parameters except catch results in
erroneous interpretations of the severity
of a high proportion of immature fish
being landed on an annual basis. If all
year classes are taken into account, the
percentage of fish in the entire
population (not just in the age 0 age
class) that are harvested before reaching
maturity is closer to 82 percent. While
we acknowledge that this is not an ideal
harvest target, it is a more accurate
representation of the catch of immature
fish.
Growth overfishing occurs when the
average size of harvested individuals is
smaller than the size that would
produce the maximum yield per recruit.
The effect of growth overfishing is that
total yield (i.e., population size) is less
than it would be if all fish were allowed
to grow to a larger size. Reductions in
yield per recruit due to growth
overfishing can be ameliorated by
reducing fishing mortality (i.e., reduced
landings) and/or increasing the average
size of harvested fish, both of which
have been recommended by the relevant
Regional Fisheries Management
Organizations (RFMOs) and adopted for
the purse seine fisheries in the western
and central Pacific Ocean.
We consider commercial fishing to
pose the greatest risk to contribute to the
decline or degradation of the Pacific
bluefin tuna. Threat scores given by the
BRT members for commercial fishing
ranged from moderate to high (severity
score of 2 to 3 with a mean of 2.29).
While we acknowledge that past trends
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in commercial landings have been the
largest contributor to the decline in the
Pacific bluefin tuna, we find the
population size in the terminal year of
the ISC stock assessment (2014;
>1,625,000 individuals and >143,000
spawning-capable individuals) as
sufficient to prevent extinction in the
foreseeable future. This is due to the fact
that the population size is large enough
to prevent small population effects (e.g.,
Allee effects) from having negative
consequences. We also note that none of
the scenarios evaluated in the ISC stock
projections showed declining trends.
This likely indicates that the proposed
reductions in landings in the ISC stock
assessment that were adopted by the
relevant RFMOs and have been
implemented by participating countries
are likely to prevent future declines.
Therefore, we consider commercial
fishing to pose a moderate to high risk
to contribute to the degradation of
Pacific bluefin tuna.
Recreational Fishing
Recreational fishing for Pacific bluefin
tuna occurs to some extent in most areas
where Pacific bluefin tuna occur
relatively close to shore. The majority of
recreational effort appears to be in the
United States, although this may be an
artifact of a lack of record keeping
outside of the United States. From the
mid-1980s onward, the majority of U.S.
Pacific bluefin tuna landings have been
from recreational fisheries. Along the
west coast of the United States, the
recreational fishing fleet for highly
migratory species such as Pacific bluefin
tuna is comprised of commercial
passenger fishing vessels (CPFVs) and
privately owned vessels operating from
ports in southern California.
The vast majority of recreational
fishing vessels operate from ports in
southern California from Los Angeles
south to the U.S./Mexico border, with a
large proportion operating out of San
Diego. Much of the catch actually occurs
in Mexican waters. The recreational
catch for Pacific bluefin tuna is
dominated by hook and line fishing
with a very small contribution from
spear fishing. The landings for Pacific
bluefin tuna are highly variable. This
variability is linked to changes in the
number of young fish that move from
the western Pacific (Bayliff 1994), and
potentially regional oceanographic
variability, and is not taken to reflect
changes in overall Pacific-wide
abundance.
In addition to variability in
immigration to the EPO, regulatory
measures impact the number of fish
caught. As mentioned, most U.S. fishing
effort occurs in Mexican waters. In July
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2014, Mexico banned the capture of
Pacific bluefin tuna in its EEZ for the
remainder of the year, reducing the
catch by the U.S. recreational fleet. In
2015, while this ban was lifted, the
United States instituted a two fish per
angler per day bag limit and a 6 fish per
multi-day fishing trip bag limit on
Pacific bluefin tuna, lowered from 10
fish per angler per day and 30 fish total
for multi-day trips (80 FR 44887; July
28, 2015). It is difficult to quantify the
effects of the reduced bag limit at the
current time as there are only two years
of landings data following the reduction
(2015–16). This is further complicated
by an absence of an index of availability
of Pacific bluefin tuna to the
recreational fishery. Anecdotal evidence
in the form of informal crew and fisher
interviews suggests that Pacific bluefin
tuna have been in high abundance since
2012. CPFV landings in 2014–16
declined following an exceptionally
productive year in 2013. Whether this
was an effect of the reduced bag limit or
an artifact of Pacific bluefin tuna
availability is uncertain. While the
petition raises the concern that the two
fish per day per angler bag limit is
insufficient as the fishery is ‘‘open
access’’ (an angler may fish as many
days as they wish), it is important to
note that the number of anglers
participating in CPFV trips has not
increased dramatically since the late
1990s. It should also be noted that the
average number of Pacific bluefin tuna
caught per angler on an annual basis has
never exceeded 1.4 (2013), thus the two
fish per day per angler bag limit will
effectively prevent a major expansion of
the Pacific bluefin tuna recreational
landings.
Since 1980, the peak of the U.S.
recreational fishery was in 2013 when
63,702 individual fish were reported in
CPFV log books, with an estimated
weight of 809 tons. This was more than
the total U.S. commercial catch in 2013
(10.1 mt), keeping in mind that
commercial vessels cannot go into
Mexican waters. The average
recreational catch is far lower (264 mt
average from 2006–2015). The peak
recreational CPFV landings in the
United States in 2013 represented 7
percent of the total global catch of
Pacific bluefin tuna in that same year,
whereas in 2015 it represented 3.2
percent of total global catch.
Private vessel landings are more
difficult to quantify as they rely on
voluntary interviews with fishers at
only a few of the many landing ports.
In 2015, the estimated landings by
private vessels was 6,195 individual
Pacific bluefin tuna, which represented
approximately 30 percent of all U.S.
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recreational landings. Note, that these
values are not included in the estimates
above and represent additional
landings.
At 3.2 percent of the total global
landings, we consider the U.S.
recreational fishery to be a minor overall
contributor to the global catch of Pacific
bluefin tuna, and recent measures have
been implemented to reduce landings.
Given that recreational landings have
been reduced through increased
management, we consider recreational
fishing as posing no or a low risk of
contributing to population decline or
degradation in Pacific bluefin tuna.
Illegal, Unreported, or Unregulated
Fishing
Illegal, Unreported or Unregulated
(IUU) fishing, as defined in 50 CFR
300.201, means:
(1) In the case of parties to an
international fishery management
agreement to which the United States is
a party, fishing activities that violate
conservation and management measures
required under an international fishery
management agreement to which the
United States is a party, including but
not limited to catch limits or quotas,
capacity restrictions, bycatch reduction
requirements, shark conservation
measures, and data reporting;
(2) In the case of non-parties to an
international fishery management
agreement to which the United States is
a party, fishing activities that would
undermine the conservation of the
resources managed under that
agreement;
(3) Overfishing of fish stocks shared
by the United States, for which there are
no applicable international conservation
or management measures, or in areas
with no applicable international fishery
management organization or agreement,
that has adverse impacts on such stocks;
(4) Fishing activity that has a
significant adverse impact on
seamounts, hydrothermal vents, cold
water corals and other vulnerable
marine ecosystems located beyond any
national jurisdiction, for which there are
no applicable conservation or
management measures or in areas with
no applicable international fishery
management organization or agreement;
or
(5) Fishing activities by foreign
flagged vessels in U.S. waters without
authorization of the United States.
While there is likely some level of
IUU fishing for Pacific bluefin tuna in
the Pacific, no reports of substantial IUU
fishing have emerged, thus the amount
cannot be determined. However,
improvements to catch document
schemes in several countries have been
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proposed/implemented in an effort to
combat IUU harvest, and the most
recent advice from the relevant RFMOs
requires improvements to reporting. The
SRT members had a range of opinions
on the effects of IUU fishing on
population decline or degradation for
Pacific bluefin tuna, ranging from no
impact to moderate impact. The SRT
therefore performed a SEDM analysis to
arrive at the conclusion that the
magnitude of potential IUU fishing
losses for Pacific bluefin tuna were
likely low relative to existing
commercial catches and thus not likely
to increase substantially in the future;
however, the certainty around this
determination is low.
Given the absence of estimates of IUU
fishing losses for Pacific bluefin tuna,
we have a low level of certainty for this
threat. However, with the continued
improvements in catch documentation
and the assumption of low IUU take
relative to the commercial harvest, we
determined that IUU fishing represented
a low to moderate risk of contributing to
population decline or degradation in
Pacific bluefin tuna.
Scientific and Educational Use
Pacific bluefin tuna are used in
scientific research for a range of studies
such as migration patterns, stable
isotope analysis, and feeding preference.
The amount of lethal use of Pacific
bluefin tuna in scientific and
educational pursuits is negligible, as
most tissues used in research (e.g.
otoliths, muscle samples) are sourced
from fish already landed by fishers. We
therefore find no evidence that scientific
or educational use poses a risk to
contribute to the decline or degradation
of Pacific bluefin tuna.
C. Disease and Predation
Disease
Studies of disease in Pacific bluefin
tuna are largely absent from the
literature. Most studies involve the
identification of parasites normally
associated with cage culture. Parasites
are often associated with mortalities and
reduced production among farmed
marine fishes (Hayward et al., 2007).
Epizootic levels of parasites with short,
direct, one-host life cycles, such as
monogeneans, can be reached very
quickly in cultured fish because of the
confinement and proximity of these fish
(Thoney and Hargis 1991). Among wild
marine fishes, parasites are usually
considered benign, though they can be
associated with reduced fecundity of
their hosts (Jones 2005; Hayward et al.,
2007).
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Munday et al. (2003) provided a
summary of metazoan infections
(myxosporeans, Kudoa sp.,
monogeneans, blood flukes, larval
cestodes, nematodes, copepods) in tuna
species. Many metazoans infect
Thunnus spp., but not many are known
to cause mortalities; most studies to date
have focused on the health and/or
economic importance of these diseases.
For example, postmortem liquefaction
of muscle due to myxosporean
infections occurs in albacore, yellowfin
tuna, and bigeye tuna (Thunnus obesus),
and in poorly identified Thunnus spp.
Lesions caused by Kudoa sp. have been
found in yellowfin tuna and southern
bluefin tuna (Langdon 1990; Kent et al.,
2001). Munday et al. (2003) report that
southern bluefin tuna have been found
to be infected with an unidentified,
capsalid monogenean that causes
respiratory stress but does not lead to
mortality.
Young Pacific bluefin tuna are often
infected with red sea bream iridoviral,
but the disease never appears in Pacific
bluefin tuna more than 1 year of age,
and occurrence is restricted to periods
of water temperatures greater than 24 °C
(Munday et al., 2003). Mortality rates
rarely reach greater than 10 percent for
young fish. The fish either die during
the acute phase of the disease, or they
become emaciated and die later.
There is no evidence of transmission
of parasites or other pathogens from
captive Pacific bluefin tuna in tuna
ranches. This is likely due to the fact
that wild Pacific bluefin tuna are not
likely to be in close enough proximity
to pens used to house Pacific bluefin
tuna.
We find that disease poses no to low
risk of contributing to population
decline or degradation in Pacific bluefin
tuna. This was based largely on the
absence of empirical evidence of
abnormal levels of natural disease
outbreaks in Pacific bluefin tuna, the
absence of observations of wild Pacific
bluefin tuna swimming in close enough
proximity to ‘‘farms’’ such that disease
transmission is possible, and the
absence of empirical evidence showing
disease transmission from ‘‘farms’’ to
wild Pacific bluefin tuna.
Predation
As large predators, Pacific bluefin
tuna are not heavily preyed upon
naturally after their first few years.
Predators of adult Pacific bluefin tuna
may include marine mammals such as
killer whales (Orcinus orca) or shark
species such as white (Carcharodon
carcharias) and mako sharks (Isurus
spp.) (Nortarbartolo di Sciara 1987;
Collette and Klein-MacPhee 2002; de
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Stephanis 2004; Fromentin and Powers
2005). Juvenile Pacific bluefin tuna may
be preyed upon by larger opportunistic
predators and, to a lesser degree,
seabirds.
We find that natural predation poses
no to low risk of contributing to
population decline or degradation in
Pacific bluefin tuna. This was based
primarily on the limited diversity of
predators and absence of empirical
evidence showing abnormal decline/
degradation of Pacific bluefin tuna by
predation.
D. The Inadequacy of Existing
Regulatory Mechanisms
The current management and
regulatory schemes for Pacific bluefin
tuna are intrinsically linked to the
patterns of utilization discussed in the
previous section ‘‘Overutilization for
Commercial, Recreational, Scientific or
Educational Purposes.’’ The evaluation
in this section focuses on the adequacy
or inadequacy of the current
management and regulatory schemes to
address the threats identified in the
section on ‘‘Overutilization for
Commercial, Recreational, Scientific or
Educational Purposes.’’
Pacific bluefin tuna fisheries are
managed under the authorities of the
Magnuson-Stevens Fishery
Conservation and Management Act
(MSA), the Tuna Conventions Act of
1950 (TCA), and the Western and
Central Pacific Fisheries Convention
Implementation Act (WCPFCIA). The
TCA and WCPFCIA authorize the
Secretary of Commerce to implement
the conservation and management
measures of the Inter-American Tropical
Tuna Commission (IATTC) and Western
and Central Pacific Fisheries
Commission (WCPFC), respectively.
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International Fisheries Management
Pacific bluefin tuna is managed as a
single Pacific-wide stock under two
RFMOs: The IATTC and the WCPFC.
Both RFMOs are responsible for
establishing conservation and
management measures based on the
scientific information, such as stock
status, obtained from the ISC.
The IATTC has scientific staff that, in
addition to conducting scientific studies
and stock assessments, also provides
science-based management advice. After
reviewing the Pacific bluefin tuna stock
assessment prepared by the ISC, the
IATTC develops resolutions. Mexico
and the United States are the two IATTC
member countries that currently fish for,
and have historically fished for, Pacific
bluefin tuna in the EPO. Thus, the
IATTC resolutions adopted were
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intended to apply to these two
countries.
The WCPFC has a Northern
Committee (WCPFC–NC), which
consists of a subset of the WCPFC
members and cooperating non-members,
that meets annually in advance of the
WCPFC meeting to discuss management
of designated ‘‘northern stocks’’
(currently North Pacific albacore, Pacific
bluefin tuna, and North Pacific
swordfish). After reviewing the stock
assessments prepared by the ISC, the
WCPFC–NC develops the conservation
and management measures for northern
stocks and makes recommendations to
the full Commission for the adoption of
measures. Because Pacific bluefin tuna
is a ‘‘northern stock’’ in the WCPFC
Convention Area, without the
recommendation of the Northern
Committee, those measures would not
be adopted by the WCPFC. The
WCPFC’s Scientific Committee also has
a role in providing advice to the WCPFC
with respect to Pacific bluefin tuna; to
date its role has been largely limited to
reviewing and endorsing the stock
assessments prepared by the ISC.
The IATTC and WCPFC first adopted
conservation and management measures
for Pacific bluefin tuna in 2009, and the
measures have been revised five times.
The conservation and management
measures include harvest limits, size
limits, and stock status monitoring
plans. In recent years, coordination
among both RFMOs has improved in an
effort to harmonize conservation and
management measures to rebuild the
depleted stock. The most relevant
resolutions as they relate to recent
Pacific bluefin tuna management are
detailed below.
In 2012, the IATTC adopted
Resolution C–12–09, which set
commercial catch limits on Pacific
bluefin tuna in the EPO for the first
time. This resolution limited catch by
all IATTC members to 5,600 mt in 2012
and to 10,000 mt in 2012 and 2013
combined, notwithstanding an
allowance of up to 500 mt annually for
any member with a historical catch
record of Pacific bluefin tuna in the
eastern Pacific Ocean (i.e., the United
States and Mexico). Resolution C–13–02
applied to 2014 only and, similar to C–
12–09, limited catch to 5,000 mt with an
allowance of up to 500 mt annually for
the United States. Following the advice
from the IATTC scientific staff,
Resolution C–14–06 further reduced the
catch limit by approximately 34
percent—6,000 mt for Mexico and 600
mt for the United States for 2015 and
2016 combined. The IATTC most
recently adopted Resolution C–16–08.
In accordance with the
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recommendations of the IATTC’s
scientific staff, this resolution maintains
the same catch limits that were
applicable to 2015 and 2016—6,600 mt
in the eastern Pacific Ocean during 2017
and 2018 combined. The final rule
implementing Resolution C–16–08 was
published on April 21, 2017, and had an
effective date of May 22, 2017. The most
recent regulations represent roughly a
33 percent reduction compared to the
average landings from 2010–2014 (5,142
mt). Resolution C–16–08 also outlined
next steps in developing a framework
for managing the stock in the long-term.
This framework included an initial goal
of rebuilding the SSB to the median
point estimate for 1952–2014 by 2024
with at least 60 percent probability, and
further specifies that the IATTC will
adopt a second rebuilding target in 2018
to be achieved by 2030. The second
Joint IATTC–WCPFC Northern
Committee Working Group meeting on
Pacific bluefin tuna, that will be held
August 28–September 1, 2017, will
discuss the development of a rebuilding
strategy (second rebuilding target and
timeline, etc.) and long-term
precautionary management framework
(e.g. management objectives, limit and
target reference points, and harvest
control rules).
The conservation and management
measures adopted by the WCPFC have
become increasingly restrictive since the
initial 2009 measure. In 2009, total
fishing effort north of 20° N. was limited
to the 2002–2004 annual average level.
At this time, an interim management
objective—to ensure that the current
level of fishing mortality rate was not
increased in the western Pacific
Ocean—was also established. In 2010,
Conservation and Management Measure
(referred to as CMM) 2010–04
established catch restrictions in
addition to the effort limits described
above for 2011 and 2012. A similar
measure, CMM 2012–06, was adopted
for 2013. In 2014 (CMM 2013–09) all
catch of Pacific bluefin tuna less than 30
kilograms (kg) was reduced by 15
percent below the 2002–2004 annual
average. In 2015 (CMM 2014–04) the
harvest of Pacific bluefin tuna less than
30 kilograms was reduced to 50 percent
of the 2002–2004 annual average. The
CMM 2014–04 also limits all catches of
Pacific bluefin tuna greater than 30 kg
to no more than the 2002–2004 annual
average level. The measure was
amended in 2015 (CMM 2015–04) to
include a requirement to adopt an
‘‘emergency rule’’ where additional
actions would be triggered if
recruitment in 2016 was extremely poor.
However, this emergency rule was not
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agreed to at the 2016 Northern
Committee annual meeting. It is
expected that it will be discussed again
at the Northern Committee meeting in
August 2017. Lastly, the measure was
amended in 2016 (CMM 2016–04) to
allow countries to transfer some of their
catch limit for Pacific bluefin tuna less
than 30 kg to their limit on fish larger
than 30 kg (i.e., increase catch of larger
fish and decrease catch of smaller fish);
the reverse is not allowed. Unlike the
IATTC resolutions for Pacific bluefin
tuna, the current WCPFC Pacific bluefin
tuna measure does not have an
expiration date, although it may be
amended or removed. Both the IATTC
and WCPFC measures require reporting
to promote compliance with the
provisions of the measures.
In summary, the WCPFC adopted
harvest limits for Pacific bluefin tuna in
2010 and further reduced those limits in
2012, 2014, and 2016. The IATTC
adopted harvest limits for Pacific
bluefin tuna in 2012 and further
reduced those limits in 2014 and 2016.
Additionally, both RFMOs addressed
concerns about monitoring harvest by
adopting monitoring and reporting
plans in 2010. Furthermore, the ISC
stock assessment predicts that under all
scenarios the current harvest limits will
allow for rebuilding the abundance of
Pacific bluefin tuna to targets by 2030.
After thorough discussion, the SRT
members had a range of opinions on the
effects of international management on
population decline or degradation for
Pacific bluefin tuna, ranging from no
impact to high impact. The SRT
therefore used SEDM to arrive at the
conclusion that inadequacy of
international management poses a low
risk of contributing to population
decline or degradation in Pacific bluefin
tuna over the short time period (25
years) and a moderate risk over the long
time period (100 years).
Domestic Fisheries Management
Domestic fisheries are managed under
the MSA. The MSA provides regional
fishery management councils with
authority to prepare Fishery
Management Plans (FMPs) for the
conservation and management of
fisheries in the U.S. EEZ. The MSA was
reauthorized and amended in 1996 by
the Sustainable Fisheries Act (SFA) and
again in 2006 by the Magnuson-Stevens
Fishery Conservation and Management
Reauthorization Act (MSRA). Among
other modifications, the SFA added
requirements that FMPs include
measures to rebuild overfished stocks.
The Pacific Fishery Management
Council (Pacific Council) has purview
over the U.S. West Coast fisheries,
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which catch the large majority of Pacific
bluefin tuna caught by U.S. vessels. The
Pacific Council makes recommendations
on the implementation of the FMP for
U.S. West Coast Fisheries for highly
migratory species (HMS FMP) for
consideration by NMFS. Additionally,
the Pacific Council makes
recommendations to NMFS on issues
expected to be considered by the IATTC
and WCPFC. During its November 2016
meeting, the Pacific Council, in
response to a petition that NMFS
received by the Center for Biological
Diversity, recommended a review of
domestic status determination criteria
for Pacific bluefin tuna at upcoming
meetings in March, June, and September
2017. The domestic status
determination criteria, also commonly
referred to as reference points, are
targets for fishing effort and abundance
of the population. At the March 2017
meeting, NMFS provided a report to the
Pacific Council that included domestic
status determination criteria for Pacific
bluefin tuna.
The Pacific Council, in response to
NMFS’ 2013 determination that the
Pacific bluefin tuna stock was
overfished and subject to overfishing (78
FR 41033; July 9, 2013), recommended
reducing the bag and possession limits
for Pacific bluefin tuna in the
recreational fishery. The Pacific Council
recommended reducing the daily bag
limit from 10 to 2 fish and the
possession limit from 30 to 6 fish. Based
on analyses conducted at the SWFSC,
this was projected to reduce landings by
10.4 percent in U.S. waters and 19.4
percent in U.S. and Mexican waters
combined (Stohs, 2016). We published a
final rule in 2015 implementing the bag
limit of two fish per day and possession
limit of six fish per trip (80 FR 44887,
July 28, 2015).
NMFS coordinates closely with the
California Department of Fish and
Wildlife (CDFW) to monitor the Pacific
bluefin tuna fishery. The State of
California requires that fish landed in
California have a corresponding receipt,
which indicates quantity landed.
Together, NMFS and CDFW monitor
landings to ensure catch limits agreed to
by the IATTC are not exceeded.
In summary, NMFS initially set limits
for commercial and recreational harvest
limits in 2010 and further reduced those
limits in 2012, 2014, and 2016. The
CDFW monitors and reports commercial
and recreation harvest to NMFS. When
U.S. commercial catch limits are met,
NMFS closes the fishery. Furthermore,
the ISC stock assessment predicts that
the current harvest limits will allow for
stable or increasing Pacific bluefin tuna
SSB. We expect the current harvest
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limits to be effective at reducing the
impact of domestic commercial and
recreational fisheries, and we will
continue to monitor the effectiveness of
those regulations. We find that U.S.
domestic management of commercial
and recreational fishing poses no or low
risk of contributing to population
decline or degradation in Pacific bluefin
tuna.
E. Other Natural or Man-Made Factors
Affecting Its Continued Existence
The other factors affecting the
continued existence of Pacific bluefin
tuna that we analyzed are climate
change, radiation contamination from
Fukushima, and the risks of low
abundance levels inherent in small
populations.
Climate Change
Over the next several decades climate
change models predict changes to many
atmospheric and oceanographic
conditions. The SRT considered these
predictions in light of the best available
information. The SRT felt that there
were three physical factors resulting
from climate change predictions that
would have the most impact on Pacific
bluefin tuna: Rising sea surface
temperatures (SST), increased ocean
acidification, and decreases in dissolved
oxygen.
Rising Sea Surface Temperatures
Rising SST may affect Pacific bluefin
tuna spawning and larval development,
prey availability, and trans-pacific
migration habits. Pacific bluefin tuna
spawning has only been recorded in two
locations: Near the Philippines and
Ryukyu Islands in spring, and in the Sea
of Japan during summer (Okochi et al.,
2016; Shimose & Farley 2016).
Spawning in Pacific bluefin tuna occurs
in comparatively warm waters, and so
larvae are found within a relatively
narrow temperature range (23.5–29.5 °C)
compared to adults (Kimura et al., 2010;
Tanaka & Suzuki 2016).
Currently, SSTs within the
theoretically suitable range for larvae
are present near the Ryukyu Islands
between April and June, and in the Sea
of Japan during July and August (Caiyun
& Ge 2006; Seo et al., 2014; Tanaka &
Suzuki 2016). Warming of 1.5–3 °C in
the region may shift suitable times to
earlier in the year and/or places for
spawning northwards. Under the most
pessimistic (‘‘business as usual’’) CO2
emission and concentration scenarios,
SSTs in the North Pacific are likely to
increase substantially by the end of the
21st century (Hazen et al., 2013;
Woodworth-Jefcoats et al., 2016).
However, there is considerable spatial
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heterogeneity in these projections. The
southern Pacific bluefin tuna spawning
area is projected to warm 1.5–2 °C by
the end of the 21st century, with
particularly weak warming in the
Kuroshio Current region. In contrast, the
Sea of Japan may warm by more than 3
°C compared to recent historical
conditions (Seo et al., 2014; Scott et al.,
2016; Woodworth-Jefcoats et al., 2016).
The precise mechanisms by which
warming waters will affect Pacific
bluefin tuna larvae are not entirely
clear. Kimura et al. (2010) assumed that
the lethal temperature for larvae was
29.5 °C. However, Muhling et al. (2010)
and Tilley et al. (2016) both reported
larvae of the closely-related Atlantic
bluefin tuna in the Gulf of Mexico at
SSTs of between 29.5 and 30.0 °C. In
addition, tropical tuna larvae can
tolerate water temperatures of well
above 30 °C (Sanchez-Velasco et al.,
1999; Wexler et al., 2011; Muhling et al.,
2017). Pacific bluefin tuna larvae may
have fundamentally different
physiology from that of these other
species, or it is possible that the
observed upper temperature limit for
Pacific bluefin tuna larvae in the field
is more a product of the time and place
of spawning, rather than an upper
physiological limit.
Similar to other tuna species, larval
Pacific bluefin tuna appear to have
highly specialized and selective diets
(Uotani et al., 1990; Llopiz & Hobday
2015). Smaller larvae rely primarily on
copepod nauplii, before moving to
cladocerans, copepods such as
Farranula and Corycaeus spp. and other
zooplankton. In the Sea of Japan region,
the occurrence of potentially favorable
prey organisms for larval Pacific bluefin
tuna appears to be associated with
stable post-bloom conditions during
summer (Chiba & Saino, 2003). This
suggests a potential phenological match
to Pacific bluefin tuna spawning.
Environmentally-driven changes in the
evolution of this zooplankton
community, or the timing of spawning,
could thus affect the temporal match
between larvae and their prey.
Woodworth-Jefcoats et al. (2016) project
a 10–20 percent decrease in overall
zooplankton density in the western
Pacific Ocean, but how this may relate
to larval Pacific bluefin tuna prey
availability is not yet known.
Climate change may affect the
foraging habitats of Pacific bluefin tuna.
Adult and older juvenile (>1 year)
Pacific bluefin tuna disperse from the
spawning grounds in the western Pacific
and older juveniles can make extensive
migrations, using much of the temperate
North Pacific. An unknown proportion
of 1–2 year old fish migrate to foraging
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grounds in the eastern North Pacific
(California Current LME) and typically
remain and forage in this region for
several years (Bayliff et al., 1991; Bayliff
1994; Rooker et al., 2001; Kitagawa et
al., 2007; Boustany et al., 2010; Block et
al., 2011; Madigan et al., 2013; Whitlock
et al., 2015).
Sea surface temperatures in the
California Current are expected to
increase up to 1.5–2 °C by the end of the
21st century (Hazen et al., 2013;
Woodworth-Jefcoats et al., 2016). Pacific
bluefin tuna tagged in the California
Current demonstrate a seasonal northsouth migration between Baja California
(10° N.) and near the California-Oregon
border (42° N.) (Boustany et al., 2010;
Block et al., 2011; Whitlock et al., 2015),
although some fish travel as far north as
Washington State. The seasonal
migration follows local peaks in
productivity (as measured by surface
chlorophyll), such that fish move
northward from Baja California after the
local productivity peak in late spring to
summer (Boustany et al., 2010; Block et
al., 2011). Uniform warming in this
region could impact Pacific bluefin tuna
distribution by moving their optimal
temperature range (and thermal
tolerance) northward. However, it is
unlikely that rising temperatures will be
a limiting factor for Pacific bluefin tuna,
as appropriate thermal habitat will
likely remain available.
The high productivity and
biodiversity of the California Current is
driven largely by seasonal coastal
upwelling. Although there is
considerable uncertainty on how
climate change will impact coastal
upwelling, basic principles indicate a
potential for upwelling intensification
(Bakun 1990). Bakun’s hypothesis
suggested that the rate of heating over
land would be enhanced relative to that
over the ocean, resulting in a stronger
cross-shore pressure gradient and a
proportional increase in alongshore
winds and resultant upwelling (Bakun
et al., 2015; Bograd et al., 2017). A
recent publication (Sydeman et al.,
2014) described a meta-analysis of
historical studies on the Bakun
hypothesis and found general support
for upwelling intensification, but with
significant spatial (latitudinal) and
temporal (intraseasonal) variability
between and within the eastern
boundary current systems. In the
California Current, a majority of
analyses indicated increased upwelling
intensity during the summer (peak)
months, though this signal was most
pronounced in the northern California
Current (Sydeman et al., 2014).
To date, global climate models have
generally been too coarse to adequately
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resolve coastal upwelling processes
(Stock et al., 2010), although recent
studies analyzing ensemble model
output have found general support for
projected increases in coastal upwelling
in the northern portions of the eastern
boundary current systems (Wang et al.,
2015; Rykaczewski et al., 2015). Using
an ensemble of more than 20 global
climate models from the IPPC’s Fifth
Assessment Report, Rykaczewski et al.
(2015) found evidence of a small
projected increase in upwelling
intensity in the California Current north
of 40° N. latitude and a decrease in
upwelling intensity to the south of this
range by the end of the 21st century
under RCP 8.5. Pacific bluefin tuna are
more commonly found to the south of
the 40° N. latitude mark. Perhaps more
importantly, Rykaczewski et al. (2015)
described projected changes in the
phenology of coastal upwelling, with an
earlier transition to positive upwelling
within the peak upwelling domain.
Overall, these results suggest a poleward
displacement of peak upwelling and
potential lengthening of the upwelling
season in the California Current, even if
upwelling intensity may decrease. The
phenological changes in coastal
upwelling may be most important, as
these may lead to spatial and temporal
mismatches between Pacific bluefin
tuna and their preferred prey (Cushing
1990; Edwards and Richardson 2004;
Bakun et al., 2015). However, the
bluefin tuna’s highly migratory nature
and plasticity in migratory patterns may
help to mitigate shifts in phenology.
The information directly relating to
food web alterations that may impact
Pacific bluefin tuna is scarce. While
changes to upwelling dynamics in
foraging areas have been examined, it is
still relatively speculative, and literature
on the potential impacts of the projected
changes is limited. Given their trophic
position as an apex predator, and the
fact that Pacific bluefin tuna are
opportunistic feeders that can change
their preferred diet from year to year,
alterations to the food web may have
less impact on Pacific bluefin tuna than
on other organisms that are reliant on
specific food sources.
Climate change may affect the Pacific
bluefin tuna’s migratory pathways.
Pacific bluefin tuna undergo transPacific migrations, in both directions,
between the western Pacific spawning
grounds and eastern Pacific foraging
grounds (Boustany et al., 2010; Block et
al., 2011). For both migrations, Pacific
bluefin tuna remain within a relatively
narrow latitudinal band (30–40° N.)
within the North Pacific Transition
Zone (NPTZ), which is characterized by
generally temperate conditions. This
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region, marking the boundary between
the oligotrophic subtropical and more
productive subarctic gyres, is
demarcated by the seasonally-migrating
Transition Zone Chlorophyll Front
(TZCF; Polovina et al., 2001; Bograd et
al., 2004). Climate-driven changes in the
position of the TZCF, and in the thermal
environment and productivity within
this region, could impact the migratory
phase of the Pacific bluefin tuna life
cycle.
Under RCP 8.5, SSTs in the NPTZ are
expected to increase by 2–3 °C by the
end of the 21st century (WoodworthJefcoats et al., 2016), with the highest
increases on the western side. The
increased temperatures within the
NPTZ are part of the broader projected
changes in the central North Pacific
Ocean, including an expansion of the
oligotrophic Subtropical Gyre, a
northward displacement of the
transition zone, and an overall decline
in productivity (Polovina et al., 2011).
The impacts of these changes on species
that make extensive use of the NPTZ
could be substantial, resulting in a gain
or loss of core habitat, distributional
shifts, and regional changes in
biodiversity (Hazen et al., 2013). Using
habitat models based on a multi-species
biologging dataset, and a global climate
model run under ‘‘business-as-usual’’
forcing (the A2 CO2 emission scenario
from the IPCC’s fourth assessment
report), Hazen et al. (2013) found a
substantial loss of core habitat for a
number of highly migratory species, and
small gains in viable habitat for other
species, including Pacific bluefin tuna.
Although the net change in total
potential Pacific bluefin tuna core
habitat was positive, the projected
physical changes in the bluefin tuna’s
migratory pathway could negatively
impact them. The northward
displacement of the NPTZ and TZCF
could lead to longer migrations
requiring greater energy expenditure.
The generally lower productivity of the
region could also diminish the
abundance or quality of the Pacific
bluefin tuna prey base.
A recent study of projected climate
change in the North Pacific that used an
ensemble of 11 climate models,
including measures of primary and
secondary production, found that
increasing temperatures could alter the
spatial distribution of tuna and billfish
species across the North Pacific
(Woodworth-Jefcoats et al., 2016). As
with Hazen et al. (2013), this study
found species richness increasing to the
north following the northward
displacement of the NPTZ. They also
estimated a 2–5 percent per decade
decline in overall carrying capacity for
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commercially important tuna and
billfish species, driven by warming
waters and a basin-scale decline in
zooplankton densities (WoodworthJefcoats et al., 2016). While there is still
substantial uncertainty inherent in these
climate models, we can say with some
confidence that the central North
Pacific, which encompasses a key
conduit between Pacific bluefin tuna
spawning and foraging habitat, is likely
to become warmer and less productive
through the 21st century.
Increasing Ocean Acidification and
Decreasing Dissolved Oxygen
As CO2 uptake by the oceans
increases, ocean pH will continue to
decrease (Feely et al., 2009), with
declines of between 0.2 and 0.4
expected in the western North Pacific by
2100 under the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change’s Representative
Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 (Ciais
et al., 2013). RCP 8.5 is a high emission
scenario, which assumes that radiative
forcing due to greenhouse gas emissions
will continue to increase strongly
throughout the 21st century (Riahi et al.,
2011). Rearing experiments on larval
yellowfin tuna suggest that ocean
acidification may result in longer hatch
times, sub-lethal organ damage, and
decreased growth and survival
(Bromhead et al., 2014; Frommel et al.,
2016). Other studies on coral reef fish
larvae show that acidification can
impair sensory abilities of larvae, and in
combination with warming
temperatures, can negatively affect
metabolic scope (Munday et al.,
2009a,b; Dixson et al., 2010; Simpson et
al., 2011). Surface ocean pH on Pacific
bluefin tuna spawning grounds is
currently higher than that in the broader
North Pacific (8.1–8.2) (Feely et al.,
2009). How this may affect the ability of
Pacific bluefin tuna larvae (in
particular) to adapt to ocean
acidification is unknown. Recent
studies have shown that future
adaptation to rising CO2 and
acidification could be facilitated by
individual genetic variability (Schunter
et al., 2017). In addition,
transgenerational plasticity may allow
surprisingly rapid adaptation across
generations (Rummer & Munday 2017).
However, these studies examined small
coral reef fish species, so results may
not transfer to larger, highly migratory
species such as Pacific bluefin tuna. As
well as incurring direct effects on
Pacific bluefin tuna, ocean acidification
is also likely to change the prey base
available to all life stages of this species.
Different organisms vary substantially in
their sensitivity to the combined effects
of acidification and warming (Byrne
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2011). A shift in the prey assemblage
towards organisms more tolerant to
acidification is therefore likely in the
future.
Current projections estimate a future
decline in dissolved oxygen of 3–6
percent by 2100 under RCP 8.5 (Bindoff
et al., 2013; Ciais et al., 2013). This may
be most relevant for spawning-sized
adult Pacific bluefin tuna, which may be
subject to greater metabolic stress on
spawning grounds. While some studies
exist on the effects of temperature on
metabolic rates, cardiac function and
specific dynamic action in juvenile
Pacific bluefin tuna (e.g. Blank et al.,
2004; 2007; Clark et al., 2008; 2010;
2013; Whitlock et al., 2015), there are no
published studies on larger adults, or on
larvae. While future warming and
decreases in dissolved oxygen may
reduce the suitability of some parts of
the Pacific bluefin tuna range (e.g.
Muhling et al., 2016), likely biological
responses to this are not yet known.
Another factor to include in
considerations of climate change
impacts is biogeochemical changes.
Driven by upper ocean warming,
changes in source waters, enhanced
stratification, and reduced mixing, the
dissolved oxygen content of mid-depth
oceanic waters is expected to decline
(Keeling et al., 2010). This effect is
especially important in the eastern
Pacific, where the Oxygen Minimum
Zone (OMZ) shoals to depths well
within the vertical habitat of Pacific
bluefin tuna and other highly migratory
species and, in particular, their prey
(Stramma et al., 2010; Moffit et al.,
2015). The observed trend of declining
oxygen levels in the Southern California
Bight (Bograd et al., 2008; McClatchie et
al., 2010; Bograd et al., 2015), combined
with an increase in the frequency and
severity of hypoxic events along the
U.S. West Coast (Chan et al., 2008;
Keller et al., 2010; Booth et al., 2012),
suggests that declining oxygen content
could drive ecosystem change.
Specifically, the vertical compression of
viable habitat for some benthic and
pelagic species could alter the available
prey base for Pacific bluefin tuna. Given
that Pacific bluefin tuna are
opportunistic feeders, they could have
resilience to these climate-driven
changes in their prey base.
The effects of increasing hypoxia on
marine fauna in the California Current
may be magnified by ocean
acidification. Ekstrom et al. (2015)
predicted the West Coast is highly
vulnerable to ecological impacts of
ocean acidification due to reduction in
aragonite saturation state exacerbated by
coastal upwelling of ‘‘corrosive,’’ lower
pH waters (Feely et al., 2008). The most
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acute impacts would be on calcifying
organisms (some marine invertebrates
and pteropods), which are not generally
part of the adult Pacific bluefin tuna
diet. While direct impacts of ocean
acidification on Pacific bluefin tuna
may be minimal within their eastern
Pacific foraging grounds, some common
Pacific bluefin tuna prey do rely on
calcifying organisms (Fabry et al., 2008).
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Climate Change Conclusions
We find that ocean acidification and
changes in dissolved oxygen content
due to climate change pose a very low
risk to the decline or degradation of the
Pacific bluefin tuna on the short-term
time scale (25 years), and low to
moderate threat on the long-time scale
(100 years). The reasoning behind this
decision for acidification centered
primarily on the disconnect between
Pacific bluefin tuna and the lower
trophic level prey which would be
directly affected by acidification as well
as by the lack of information on direct
impacts on acidification on pelagic fish.
Conclusions by the SRT members on the
rising SST due to climate change
required SEDM, as the range of values
assigned by each SRT member was
large. Following the SEDM, the SRT
concluded that SST rise poses a low risk
of contributing to population decline or
degradation in PBF over the short (25
year) and long (100 year) time frames.
This decision was reached primarily
due to the highly migratory nature of
Pacific bluefin tuna; despite likely
latitudinal shifts in preferred habitat, it
would take little effort for Pacific
bluefin tuna to shift their movements
along with the changing conditions.
Fukushima Associated Radiation
¯
On 11 March, 2011, the Tohoku
megathrust earthquake at magnitude 9.1
produced a devastating tsunami that hit
the Pacific coast of Japan. As a result of
the earthquake, the Fukushima Daiichi
Nuclear Power Plant was compromised,
releasing radionuclides directly into the
adjacent sea. The result was a 1- to 2week pulse of emissions of the caesium
radioisotopes Caesium-134 and
Caesium-137. These isotopes were
biochemically available to organisms in
direct contact with the contaminated
water (Oozeki et al., 2017).
Madigan et al. (2012) reported on the
presence of Caesium-134 and Caesium137 in Pacific bluefin tuna caught in
California in ratios that strongly
suggested uptake as a result of the
Fukushima Daiichi accident. The results
indicated that highly migratory species
can be vectors for the trans-Pacific
movement of radionuclides.
Importantly, the study highlighted that
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while the radiocaesium present in the
Pacific bluefin tuna analyzed was
directly traceable to the Fukushima
accident, the concentrations were 30
times lower than background levels of
naturally occurring radioisotopes such
as potassium-40. In addition, Madigan
et al. (2012) estimated the dose to
human consumers of fish from
Fukushima derived Caesium-137 was at
0.5 percent of the dose from Polonium210, a natural decay product of
Uranium-238, which is ubiquitously
present and in constant concentrations
globally.
Fisher et al. (2013) further evaluated
the dosage and associated risks to
marine organisms and humans (by
consumption of contaminated seafood)
of the caesium radioisotopes associated
with the Fukushima Daiichi accident.
They confirmed that dosage of
radioisotopes from consuming seafood
were dominated by naturally occurring
radionuclides and that those stemming
directly from Fukushima derived
radiocaesium were three to four orders
of magnitude below doses from these
natural radionuclides. Doses to marine
organisms were two orders of magnitude
lower than the lowest benchmark
protection level for ecosystem health
(ICRP 2008). The study concluded that
even on the date at which the highest
exposure levels may have been reached,
dosages were very unlikely to have
exceeded reference levels. This
indicates that the amount of Fukushima
derived radionuclides is not cause for
concern with regard to the potential
harm to the organisms themselves.
We find that Fukushima associated
radiation poses no risk of contributing
to population decline or degradation in
Pacific bluefin tuna. This was based
largely on the absence of empirical
evidence showing negative effects of
Fukushima derived radiation on Pacific
bluefin tuna.
Small Population Concerns
Small populations face a number of
inherent risks. These risks are tied to
survival and reproduction (e.g. Allee or
other depensation effects) via three
mechanisms: Ecological (e.g., mate
limitation, cooperative defense,
cooperative feeding, and environmental
conditioning), genetic (e.g., inbreeding
and genetic drift), and demographic
stochasticity (i.e., individual variability
in survival and recruitment) (Berec et
al., 2007). The actual number at which
populations would be considered
critically low and at risk varies
depending on the species and the risk
being considered. While the Pacific
bluefin tuna is estimated to contain at
least 1.6 million individuals, of which
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more than 140,000 are reproductively
capable, the SRT deemed it prudent to
examine the factors above that are
traditionally used to evaluate the
impacts of relatively low population
numbers. In the paragraphs that follow
we discuss how small population size
can affect reproduction, demographic
stochasticity, genetics, and how it can
be affected by stochastic and
catastrophic events, and Allee effects.
In small populations, individuals may
have difficulty finding a mate. However,
the probability of finding a mate
depends largely on density on the
spawning grounds rather than absolute
abundance. Pacific bluefin tuna are a
schooling species and individual Pacific
bluefin tuna are not randomly
distributed throughout their range. They
also exhibit regular seasonal migration
patterns that include aggregating at two
separate spawning grounds (Kitigawa et
al., 2010). This schooling and
aggregation behavior serves to increase
their local density and the probability of
individuals finding a mate. This mating
strategy could reduce the effects of
small population size on finding mates
over other strategies that do not
concentrate individuals. It is unknown
whether spawning behavior is triggered
by environmental conditions or
densities of tuna. If density of adults
triggers spawning, then reproduction
could be affected by high levels of
depletion. However, the abundance of
Pacific bluefin tuna has reached similar
lows in the past and rebounded. The
number of adult Pacific bluefin tuna is
currently estimated to be 2.6 percent of
its unfished SSB. The number of adult
Pacific bluefin tuna reached a similar
low in 1984 of 1.8 percent and
rebounded in the 1990s to 9.6 percent,
the second highest level since 1952.
Another concern with small
populations is demographic
stochasticity. Demographic stochasticity
refers to the variability of annual
population change arising from random
birth and death events at the individual
level. When populations are very small
(e.g., <100 individuals), chance
demographic events can have a large
impact on the population. Species with
low mean annual survival rates are
generally at greater population risk from
demographic stochasticity than those
that are long-lived and have high mean
annual survival rates. In other words,
species that are long-lived and have
high annual survival rates have lower
‘‘safe’’ abundance thresholds, above
which the risk of extinction due to
chance demographic processes becomes
negligible. Even though the percentage
of adult Pacific bluefin tuna relative to
historical levels is low, they still
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number in the hundreds of thousands.
In addition, the total population size in
2014 as estimated by the 2016 ISC stock
assessment was 1,625,837. The high
number of individuals, both mature and
immature, should therefore counteract a
particular year with low survivorship.
Small populations may also face Allee
effects. If a population is critically small
in size, Allee effects can act upon
genetic diversity to reduce the
prevalence of beneficial alleles through
genetic drift. This may lower the
population’s fitness by reducing
adaptive potential and increasing the
accumulation of deleterious alleles due
to increased levels of inbreeding.
Population genetic theory typically sets
a threshold of 50 individuals (i.e., 25
males, 25 females) below which
irreversible loss of genetic diversity is
likely to occur in the near future. This
value, however, is not necessarily based
upon the number of individuals present
in the population (i.e., census
population size, NC) but rather on the
effective population size (NE), which is
linked to the overall genetic diversity in
the population and is typically less than
NC. In extreme cases NE may be much
(e.g. 10–10,000 times) smaller, typically
for species that experience high
variance in reproductive success (e.g.,
sweepstakes recruitment events). NE
may also be reduced in populations that
deviate from a 1:1 sex ratio and from
species that have suffered a genetic
bottleneck.
With respect to considerations of NE
in Pacific bluefin tuna, the following
points are relevant. Although there are
no available data for nuclear DNA
diversity in Pacific bluefin tuna, the
relatively high number of unique
mitochondrial DNA haplotypes (Tseng
et al., 2014) can be used as a proxy for
evidence of high levels of overall
genetic diversity currently within the
population. With two separate spawning
grounds, and adult numbers remaining
in the hundreds of thousands, genetic
diversity is expected to still be at high
levels with little chance for inbreeding,
given that billions of gametes combine
in concentrated spawning events.
Animals that are highly mobile with
a large range are less susceptible to
stochastic and catastrophic events (such
as oil spills) than those that occur in
concentrated areas across life history
stages. Pacific bluefin tuna are likely to
be resilient to catastrophic and
stochastic events for the following
reasons: (1) They are highly migratory,
(2) there is a large degree of spatial
separation between life history stages,
(3) there are two separated spawning
areas, and (4) adults reproduce over
many years such that poor recruitment
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even over a series of years will not
result in reproductive collapse. As long
as this spatial arrangement persists and
poor recruitment years do not exceed
the reproductive age span for the
species, Pacific bluefin tuna should be
resilient to both stochastic and
catastrophic events.
Although Pacific bluefin tuna are
resilient to many of the risks that small
populations face, there is increasing
evidence for a reduction in population
growth rate for marine fishes that have
been fished to densities below those
expected from natural fluctuations
(Hutchings 2000, 2001). These studies
focus on failure to recover at expected
rates. A far more serious issue is not just
reducing population growth but
reducing it to the point that populations
decrease (death rates exceed
recruitment). Unfortunately, the reviews
of marine fish stocks do not make a
distinction between these two important
categories of depensation: Reduced but
neutral or positive growth versus
negative growth. Many of the cases
reviewed suggested depensatory effects
for populations reduced to relatively
low levels (0.2 to 0.5 SSBmsy) that would
increase time to recovery, but no
mention was made of declining towards
extinction. However, these cases did not
represent the extent of reduction
observed in Pacific bluefin tuna (0.14
SSBmsy). Thus, this case falls outside
that where recovery has been observed
in other marine fishes and thus there
remains considerable uncertainty as to
how the species will respond to
reductions in fishing pressure.
Hutchings et al. (2012) also show that
there is no positive relationship
between per capita population growth
rate and fecundity in a review of 233
populations of teleosts. Thus, the prior
confidence that high fecundity provides
more resilience to population reduction
and ability to quickly recover should be
abandoned. These findings, although
not providing examples that marine
fishes exploited to low levels will
decline towards extinction, suggest that
at a minimum such populations may not
recover quickly. However, Pacific
bluefin tuna recently showed an
instance of positive growth from a
population level similar to the most
recent stock assessment. This suggests
potential for recovery at low population
levels. However, the conditions needed
to allow positive growth remain
uncertain.
Small Populations Conclusion
We find that small population
concerns pose low risk of contributing
to population decline or degradation in
Pacific bluefin tuna over both the 25-
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and 100-year time scales, though with
low certainty. This was largely due to
the estimated population size of more
than 1.6 million individuals, of which at
least 140,000 are reproductively
capable. This, coupled with previous
evidence of recovery from similarly low
numbers and newly implemented
harvest regulations, strongly suggests
that small population concerns are not
particularly serious in Pacific bluefin
tuna.
Analysis of Threats
As noted previously, the SRT
conducted its analysis in a 3-step
progressive process. First, the SRT
evaluated the risk of 25 different threats
(covering all of the ESA section 4(a)(1)
categories) contributing to a decline or
degradation of Pacific bluefin tuna. The
second step was to evaluate the
extinction risk in each of the 4(a)(1)
categories. Finally, they performed an
overall extinction risk analysis over two
timeframes—25 years and 100 years.
In step one, the evaluation of the risk
of individual threats contributing to a
decline or degradation of Pacific bluefin
tuna considered how these threats have
affected and how they are expected to
continue to affect the species. The
threats were evaluated in light of the
vulnerability of and exposure to the
threat, and the biological response. This
evaluation of individual threats and the
potential demographic risk they pose
forms the basis of understanding used
during the extinction risk analysis to
inform the overall assessment of
extinction risk.
Within each threat category,
individual threats have not only
different magnitudes of influence on the
overall risk to the species (weights) but
also different degrees of certainty. The
overall threat within a category is
cumulative across these individual
threats. Thus, the overall threat is no
less than that for the individual threat
with the highest influence but may be
greater as the threats are taken together.
For example, some of the individual
threats rated as ‘‘moderate’’ may result
in an overall threat for that category of
at least ‘‘moderate’’ but potentially
‘‘high.’’ When evaluating the overall
threat, individual team members
considered all threats taken together and
performed a mental calculation,
weighting the threats according to their
expertise using the definitions below.
Each team member was asked to
record his or her confidence in their
overall scoring for that category. If, for
example, the scoring for the overall
threat confidence was primarily a
function of a single threat and that
threat had a high level of certainty, then
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they would likely have a high level of
confidence in the overall confidence
score. Alternatively, the overall
confidence score could be reduced due
to a combination of threats, some of
which the team members had a low
level of certainty about and
consequently communicated this lower
overall level of confidence with a
corresponding score (using the
definitions below). Generally, the level
of confidence will be most influenced
by the level of certainty in the threats of
highest severity. The level of confidence
for threats with no to low severity
within a category that contains
moderate to high severity threats will
not be important to the overall level of
confidence.
The level of severity is defined as the
level of risk of this threat category
contributing to the decline or
degradation of the species over each
time frame (over the next 25 years or
over the next 100 years). Specific
rankings for severity are: (1) High: The
threat category is likely to eliminate or
seriously degrade the species; (2)
moderate: The threat category is likely
to moderately degrade the species; (3)
low: The threat category is likely to only
slightly impair the species; and (4)
none: The threat category is not likely
to impact the species.
The level of confidence is defined as
the level of confidence that the threat
category is affecting, or is likely to
affect, the species over the time frame
considered. Specific rankings for
confidence are: (1) High: There is a high
degree of confidence to support the
conclusion that this threat category is
affecting, or is likely to affect, the
species with the severity ascribed over
the time frame considered; (2) moderate:
There is a moderate degree of
confidence to support the conclusion
that this threat category is affecting, or
is likely to affect, the species with the
severity ascribed over the time frame
considered; (3) low: There is a low
degree of confidence to support the
conclusion that this threat category is
affecting, or is likely to affect, the
species with the severity ascribed over
the time frame considered; and (4) none:
There is no confidence to support the
conclusion that this threat category is
affecting, or is likely to affect, the
species with the severity ascribed over
the time frame considered.
Based on the best available
information and the SRT’s SEDM
analysis, we find that overutilization,
particularly by commercial fishing
activities, poses a moderate risk of
decline or degradation of the species
over both the 25 and 100-year time
scales. While the degree of certainty for
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this risk assessment was moderate for
the 25-year time frame, it was low for
the 100-year time frame. This largely
reflects the inability to accurately
predict trends in both population size
and catch over the longer time frame. In
addition, management regimes may shift
in either direction in response to the
population trends at the time.
Over the short and long time frames,
we find that habitat destruction, disease,
and predation are not likely to pose a
risk to the extinction of the Pacific
bluefin tuna. Among the specific threats
in the Habitat Destruction category,
water pollution was ranked the highest
(mean severity score 1.5). This was
largely due to the fact that any
degradation to Pacific bluefin tuna by
water pollution is a passive event. That
is, behavioral avoidance might not be
possible, whereas other specific threats
involved factors where active avoidance
would be possible.
We also find that based on the best
available information and the SRT’s
SEDM analysis, the inadequacy of
existing regulatory mechanisms poses a
low risk of decline or degradation to the
species over both the 25- and 100-year
time scales, given the stable or upward
trends of future projected SSB over the
short time scale from various harvest
scenarios in the 2016 ISC stock
assessment. The confidence levels were
moderate for the 25-year time frame and
low for the 100-year time frame.
Lastly, we find that other natural or
manmade factors, which included
climate change and small population
concerns, pose a low risk of decline or
degradation to the species over the 25year time frame and moderate risk over
the 100-year time frame.
Extinction Risk Analysis
As described previously, following
the evaluation of the risk of 25 specific
threats contributing to the decline or
degradation of Pacific bluefin tuna, the
SRT then conducted step 2 and step 3
to perform an extinction risk analysis. In
step two the SRT used SEDM to
evaluate the contribution of each section
4(a)(1) factor to extinction risk. Finally,
in step 3 the SRT performed an overall
extinction risk analysis over two
timeframes—25 years and 100 years.
This final risk assessment considered
the threats, the results from the recent
stock assessment, the species life
history, and historical trends. After
considering all factors, team members
were asked to distribute 100 plausibility
points into one of three risk categories
for the short term and long term time
frames. The short-term time frame was
25 years and the long-term time frame
was 100 years.
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The SRT defined the extinction risk
categories as low, moderate, and high.
The species is deemed to be at low risk
of extinction if at least one of the
following conditions is met: (1) The
species has high abundance or
productivity; (2) There are stable or
increasing trends in abundance; and (3)
The distributional characteristics of the
species are such that they allow
resiliency to catastrophes or
environmental changes. The species is
deemed to be at moderate risk of
extinction if it is not at high risk and at
least one of the following conditions is
met: (1) There are unstable or decreasing
trends in abundance or productivity
which are substantial relative to overall
population size; (2) There have been
reductions in genetic diversity; or (3)
The distributional characteristics of the
species are such that they make the
species vulnerable to catastrophes or
environmental changes. Finally, the
species is deemed to be at high risk of
extinction if at least one of the following
conditions is met: (1) The abundance of
the species is such that depensatory
effects are plausible; (2) There are
declining trends in abundance that are
substantial relative to overall population
size; (3) There is low and decreasing
genetic diversity; (4) There are current
or predicted environmental changes that
may strongly and negatively affect a life
history stage for a significant period of
time; or (5) The species has
distributional characteristics that result
in vulnerability to catastrophes or
environmental changes.
The SRT members distributed their
plausibility points across all three risk
categories, with most members placing
their points in the low and moderate
risk categories. Over the 25-year time
frame, a large proportion of plausibility
points were assigned to the low and
moderate risk by some team members.
Over the 100-year time frame, more
points were assigned to the moderate
risk category by all members and a few
members assigned points to the high
risk category. After the scores were
recorded, the SRT calculated the
average number of points for each risk
category under both the 25 and 100-year
timeframes. For both timeframes, the
greatest number of points were in the
low risk category. The average number
of points for the low risk category was
68 for the 25-year timeframe and 51 for
the 100-year timeframe.
There are a number of factors that
contributed to the low ranking of the
overall extinction risk over both the 25
and 100-year time frames. The large
number of mature individuals, while
small relative to the theoretical, modelderived unfished population, coupled
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with the total estimated population size,
was deemed sufficiently large for Pacific
bluefin tuna to avoid small population
effects. Harvest regulations have been
adopted by member nations to reduce
landings and rebuild the population,
with all model results from the ISC
analysis showing stable or increasing
trends under current management
measures. Also, the SRT noted that over
the past 40 years the SSB has been low
relative to the theoretical, modelderived unfished population (less than
10 percent of unfished), and it has
increased before. While the SRT agreed
that climate change has the potential to
negatively impact the population, many
members of the team felt that the Pacific
bluefin tuna’s broad distribution across
habitat, vagile nature, and generalist
foraging strategy were mitigating factors
in terms of extinction risk.
After evaluating the extinction risk
SEDM analysis conducted by the SRT
over the 25-year and 100-year
timeframes, we considered the overall
extinction risk categories described
below:
High risk: A species or DPS with a
high risk of extinction is at or near a
level of abundance, productivity, spatial
structure, and/or diversity that places its
continued persistence in question. The
demographics of a species or DPS at
such a high level of risk may be highly
uncertain and strongly influenced by
stochastic or depensatory processes.
Similarly, a species or DPS may be at
high risk of extinction if it faces clear
and present threats (e.g., confinement to
a small geographic area; imminent
destruction, modification, or
curtailment of its habitat; or disease
epidemic) that are likely to create
present and substantial demographic
risks.
Moderate risk: A species or DPS is at
moderate risk of extinction if it is on a
trajectory that puts it at a high level of
extinction risk in the foreseeable future
(see description of ‘‘High risk’’ above).
A species or DPS may be at moderate
risk of extinction due to projected
threats or declining trends in
abundance, productivity, spatial
structure, or diversity. The appropriate
time horizon for evaluating whether a
species or DPS is more likely than not
to be at high risk in the foreseeable
future depends on various case- and
species-specific factors. For example,
the time horizon may reflect certain life
history characteristics (e.g., long
generation time or late age-at-maturity)
and may also reflect the time frame or
rate over which identified threats are
likely to impact the biological status of
the species or DPS (e.g., the rate of
disease spread). (The appropriate time
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horizon is not limited to the period that
status can be quantitatively modeled or
predicted within predetermined limits
of statistical confidence. The biologist
(or Team) should, to the extent possible,
clearly specify the time horizon over
which it has confidence in evaluating
moderate risk.)
Low risk: A species or DPS is at low
risk of extinction if it is not at moderate
or high level of extinction risk (see
‘‘Moderate risk’’ and ‘‘High risk’’ above).
A species or DPS may be at low risk of
extinction if it is not facing threats that
result in declining trends in abundance,
productivity, spatial structure, or
diversity. A species or DPS at low risk
of extinction is likely to show stable or
increasing trends in abundance and
productivity with connected, diverse
populations.
The SRT evaluation of extinction risk
placed the majority of distributed points
in the low risk category for both the 25year and 100-year timeframes. The SRT
members explained their assessment of
low risk over those timeframes
recognizing that the large number of
mature individuals, while small relative
to the theoretical, model-derived
unfished population, coupled with the
total estimated population size, was
deemed sufficiently large for Pacific
bluefin tuna to avoid small population
effects. Harvest regulations have been
adopted by member nations to reduce
landings and rebuild the population,
with all model results from the ISC
stock assessment analysis (ISC 2016)
showing stable or increasing trends
under current management measures.
Also, the SRT noted that over the past
40 years the SSB has been low relative
to the theoretical, model-derived
unfished population (less than 10
percent of unfished), and it has
increased before. While the SRT agreed
that climate change has the potential to
negatively impact the population, many
members of the team felt that the Pacific
bluefin tuna’s broad distribution across
habitat, its vagile nature, and its
generalist foraging strategy were
mitigating factors in terms of extinction
risk.
Based upon the expert opinion of the
SRT and for the reasons described
above, we determine that the overall
extinction risk to Pacific bluefin tuna is
most accurately characterized by the
description of the low risk category as
noted above.
Review of Conservation Efforts
Section 4(b)(1) of the ESA requires
that NMFS make listing determinations
based solely on the best scientific and
commercial data available after
conducting a review of the status of the
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species and taking into account those
efforts, if any, being made by any state
or foreign nation, or political
subdivisions thereof, to protect and
conserve the species. We are not aware
of additional conservation efforts being
made by any state or foreign nation to
protect and conserve the species other
than the fishery management
agreements already considered, thus no
additional measures were evaluated in
this finding.
Significant Portion of Its Range
Analysis
As the definitions of ‘‘endangered
species’’ and ‘‘threatened species’’ make
clear, the determination of extinction
risk can be based on either assessment
of the rangewide status of the species,
or the status of the species in a
‘‘significant portion of its range’’ (SPR).
Because we determined that the Pacific
bluefin tuna is at low risk of extinction
throughout its range, the species does
not warrant listing based on its
rangewide status. Next, we needed to
determine whether the species is
threatened or endangered in a
significant portion of its range.
According to the SPR Policy (79 FR
37577; July 1, 2014), if a species is
found to be endangered or threatened in
a significant portion of its range, the
entire species is listed as endangered or
threatened, respectively, and the ESA’s
protections apply to all individuals of
the species wherever found.
On March 29, 2017, the Arizona
District Court in Center for Biological
Diversity, et al., v. Zinke, et al., 4:14–cv–
02506–RM (D. Ariz.), a case brought
against the U.S. Fish and Wildlife
Service (FWS), remanded and vacated
the joint FWS/NMFS SPR Policy after
concluding that the policy’s definition
of ‘‘significant’’ was invalid. NMFS is
not a party to the litigation. On April 26,
2017, the FWS filed a Motion to Alter
or Amend the Court’s Judgment, which
is pending. In the meantime, we based
our SPR analysis on our joint SPR
Policy, as discussed below.
The SPR Policy sets out the following
three components:
(1) Significant: A portion of the range
of a species is ‘‘significant’’ if the
species is not currently endangered or
threatened throughout its range, but the
portion’s contribution to the viability of
the species is so important that, without
the members in that portion, the species
would be in danger of extinction, or
likely to become so in the foreseeable
future, throughout all of its range.
(2) The range of a species is
considered to be the general
geographical area within which that
species can be found at the time NMFS
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makes any particular status
determination. This range includes
those areas used throughout all or part
of the species’ life cycle, even if they are
not used regularly (e.g., seasonal
habitats). Lost historical range is
relevant to the analysis of the status of
the species, but it cannot constitute a
SPR.
(3) If the species is endangered or
threatened throughout a significant
portion of its range, and the population
in that significant portion is a valid
DPS, we will list the DPS rather than the
entire taxonomic species or subspecies.
When we conduct a SPR analysis, we
first identify any portions of the range
that warrant further consideration. The
range of a species can theoretically be
divided into portions in an infinite
number of ways. However, there is no
purpose to analyzing portions of the
range that are not reasonably likely to be
of relatively greater biological
significance, or in which a species may
not be endangered or threatened. To
identify only those portions that warrant
further consideration, we determine
whether there is substantial information
indicating that (1) the portions may be
significant and (2) the species may be in
danger of extinction in those portions or
likely to become so within the
foreseeable future. We emphasize that
answering these questions in the
affirmative is not a determination that
the species is endangered or threatened
throughout a SPR, rather, it is a step in
determining whether a more detailed
analysis of the issue is required. Making
this preliminary determination triggers a
need for further review, but does not
prejudge whether the portion actually
meets these standards such that the
species should be listed.
If this preliminary determination
identifies a particular portion or
portions that may be significant and that
may be threatened or endangered, those
portions must then be evaluated under
the SPR Policy as to whether the portion
is in fact both significant and
endangered or threatened. In making a
determination of significance under the
SPR Policy we would consider the
contribution of the individuals in that
portion to the viability of the species.
That is, we would determine whether
the portion’s contribution to the
viability of the species is so important
that, without the members in that
portion, the species would be in danger
of extinction or likely to become so in
the foreseeable future. Depending on the
biology of the species, its range, and the
threats it faces, it may be more efficient
to address the ‘‘significant’’ question
first, or the status question first. If we
determine that a portion of the range we
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are examining is not significant, we
would not need to determine whether
the species is endangered or threatened
there; if we determine that the species
is not endangered or threatened in the
portion of the range we are examining,
then we would not need to determine if
that portion is significant.
Because Pacific bluefin tuna range
broadly throughout their lifecycle
around the Pacific basin, there was no
portion of the range that, if lost, would
increase the population’s extinction
risk. In other words, risk of specific
threats to Pacific bluefin tuna are
buffered both in space and time. To be
thorough, the SRT examined the
potential for a SPR by considering the
greatest known threats to the species
and whether these were localized to a
significant portion of the range of the
species. The main threats to Pacific
bluefin tuna identified by the SRT were
overutilization, inadequacy of
management, and climate change.
Generally, these threats are spread
throughout the range of Pacific bluefin
tuna and not localized to a specific
region.
We also considered whether any
potential SPRs might be identified on
the basis of threats faced by the species
in a portion of its range during one part
of its life cycle. We further evaluated the
potential for the two known spawning
areas to meet the two criteria for a SPR.
The spawning areas for Pacific bluefin
tuna are likely to be somewhat
temporally and spatially fluid in that
they are characterized by physical
oceanographic conditions (e.g.,
temperature) rather than a spatially
explicit area. While commercial
fisheries target Pacific bluefin tuna on
the spawning grounds, spatial patterns
of commercial fishing have not changed
significantly over many decades. The
historical pattern of exploitation on the
spawning areas was part of the
consideration in evaluating the threat of
overexploitation to the species as a
whole, and was determined to not
significantly increase the species’ risk of
extinction for the members utilizing that
portion of the range for the spawning
stage of their life cycle. Given that the
species has persisted throughout this
time frame and has experienced
similarly low levels of standing stock
biomass, it has shown the ability to
rebound and has yet to reach critically
low levels. Therefore, it was determined
that this fishery behavior has not
significantly increased the species’ risk
of extinction for this life cycle phase.
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37079
Significant Portion of Its Range
Determination
Pacific bluefin tuna range broadly
throughout their life cycle around the
Pacific basin, and there is no portion of
the range that merits evaluation as a
potential SPR. If a threat was
determined to impact the fish in the
spawning area, it would impact the fish
throughout its range and, therefore, the
species would warrant listing as
threatened or endangered based on its
status throughout its entire range. Based
on our review of the best available
information, we find that there are no
portions of the range of the Pacific
bluefin tuna that were likely to be of
heightened biological significance
(relative to other areas) or likely to be
either endangered or threatened
themselves.
Final Determination
Section 4(b)(1) of the ESA requires
that NMFS make listing determinations
based solely on the best scientific and
commercial data available after
conducting a review of the status of the
species and taking into account those
efforts, if any, being made by any state
or foreign nation, or political
subdivisions thereof, to protect and
conserve the species. We have
independently reviewed the best
available scientific and commercial
information including the petition,
public comments submitted on the 90day finding (81 FR 70074; October 11,
2016), the status review report, and
other published and unpublished
information, and have consulted with
species experts and individuals familiar
with Pacific bluefin tuna. We
considered each of the statutory factors
to determine whether it presented an
extinction risk to the species on its own,
now or in the foreseeable future, and
also considered the combination of
those factors to determine whether they
collectively contributed to the
extinction risk of the species, now or in
the foreseeable future.
Our determination set forth here is
based on a synthesis and integration of
the foregoing information, factors and
considerations, and their effects on the
status of the species throughout its
entire range. Based on our consideration
of the best available scientific and
commercial information, as summarized
here and in the status review report, we
conclude that no population segments
of the Pacific bluefin tuna meet the DPS
policy criteria and that the Pacific
bluefin tuna faces an overall low risk of
extinction. Therefore, we conclude that
the species is not currently in danger of
extinction throughout its range nor is it
E:\FR\FM\08AUN1.SGM
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Federal Register / Vol. 82, No. 151 / Tuesday, August 8, 2017 / Notices
likely to become so within the
foreseeable future. Additionally, we did
not identify any portions of the species’
range that were likely to be of
heightened biological significance
(relative to other areas) or likely to be
either endangered or threatened
themselves. Accordingly, the Pacific
bluefin tuna does not meet the
definition of a threatened or endangered
species, and thus, the Pacific bluefin
tuna does not warrant listing as
threatened or endangered at this time.
This is a final action, and, therefore,
we are not soliciting public comments.
References
asabaliauskas on DSKBBXCHB2PROD with NOTICES
Dated: August 3, 2017.
Samuel D. Rauch III,
Deputy Assistant Administrator for
Regulatory Programs, National Marine
Fisheries Service.
[FR Doc. 2017–16668 Filed 8–7–17; 8:45 am]
BILLING CODE 3510–22–P
DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE
Office of the Secretary
[Transmittal No. 17–34]
A complete list of all references cited
herein is available upon request (see FOR
FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT).
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Authority
The authority for this action is the
Endangered Species Act of 1973, as
amended (16 U.S.C. 1531 et seq.).
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Arms Sales Notification
Defense Security Cooperation
Agency, Department of Defense.
ACTION: Arms sales notice.
AGENCY:
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The Department of Defense is
publishing the unclassified text of an
arms sales notification.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT:
Pamela Young, (703) 697–9107,
pamela.a.young14.civ@mail.mil or
Kathy Valadez, (703) 697–9217,
kathy.a.valadez.civ@mail.mil; DSCA/
DSA–RAN.
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: This
36(b)(1) arms sales notification is
published to fulfill the requirements of
section 155 of Public Law 104–164
dated July 21, 1996. The following is a
copy of a letter to the Speaker of the
House of Representatives, Transmittal
17–34 with attached Policy Justification
and Sensitivity of Technology.
SUMMARY:
Dated: August 2, 2017.
Aaron Siegel,
Alternate OSD Federal Register Liaison
Officer, Department of Defense.
BILLING CODE 5001–06–P
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Agencies
[Federal Register Volume 82, Number 151 (Tuesday, August 8, 2017)]
[Notices]
[Pages 37060-37080]
From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office [www.gpo.gov]
[FR Doc No: 2017-16668]
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
[Docket No. 160719634-7697-02]
RIN 0648-XE756
Listing Endangered and Threatened Wildlife and Plants; Notice of
12-Month Finding on a Petition To List the Pacific Bluefin Tuna as
Threatened or Endangered Under the Endangered Species Act
AGENCY: National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS), National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Commerce.
ACTION: Notice of 12-month petition finding.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
SUMMARY: We, NMFS, announce a 12-month finding on a petition to list
the Pacific bluefin tuna (Thunnus orientalis) as a threatened or
endangered species under the Endangered Species Act (ESA) and to
designate critical habitat concurrently with the listing. We have
completed a comprehensive status review of the species in response to
the petition. Based on the best scientific and commercial data
available, including the status review report, and after taking into
account efforts being made to protect the species, we have determined
that listing of the Pacific bluefin tuna is not warranted. We conclude
that the Pacific bluefin tuna is not an endangered species throughout
all or a significant portion of its range, nor likely to become an
endangered species within the foreseeable future throughout all or a
significant portion of its range. We also announce the availability of
a status review report, prepared pursuant to the ESA, for Pacific
bluefin tuna.
DATES: This finding was made on August 8, 2017.
ADDRESSES: The documents informing the 12-month finding are available
by submitting a request to the Assistant Regional Administrator,
Protected Resources Division, West Coast Regional Office, 501 W. Ocean
Blvd., Suite 4200, Long Beach, CA 90802, Attention: Pacific Bluefin
Tuna 12-month Finding. The documents are also available electronically
at https://www.westcoast.fisheries.noaa.gov/.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Gary Rule, NMFS West Coast Region at
gary.rule@noaa.gov, (503) 230-5424; or Marta Nammack, NMFS Office of
Protected Resources at marta.nammack@noaa.gov, (301) 427-8469.
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION:
Background
On June 20, 2016, we received a petition from the Center for
Biological Diversity (CBD), on behalf of 13 other co-petitioners, to
list the Pacific bluefin tuna as threatened or endangered under the ESA
and to designate critical habitat concurrently with its listing. On
October 11, 2016, we published a positive 90-day finding (81 FR 70074)
announcing that the petition presented substantial scientific or
commercial information indicating that the petitioned action may be
warranted. In our 90-day finding, we also announced the initiation of a
status review of the Pacific bluefin tuna and requested information to
inform our decision on whether the species warrants listing as
threatened or endangered under the ESA.
ESA Statutory Provisions
The ESA defines ``species'' to include any subspecies of fish or
wildlife or plants, and any distinct population segment (DPS) of any
vertebrate fish or wildlife which interbreeds when mature (16 U.S.C.
1532(16)). The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) and NMFS have
adopted a joint policy describing what constitutes a DPS under the ESA
(61 FR 4722; February 7, 1996). The joint DPS policy identifies two
criteria for making a determination that a population is a DPS: (1) The
population must be discrete in relation to the remainder of the species
to which it belongs; and (2) the population must be significant to the
species to which it belongs.
Section 3 of the ESA defines an endangered species as any species
which is in danger of extinction throughout all or a significant
portion of its range and a threatened species as one which is likely to
become an endangered species within the foreseeable future throughout
all or a significant portion of its range. Thus, we interpret an
``endangered species'' to be one that is presently in danger of
extinction. A ``threatened species,'' on the other hand, is not
presently in danger of extinction, but is likely to become so in the
foreseeable future (that is, at a later time). In other words, the
primary statutory difference between a threatened and endangered
species is the timing of when a species may be in danger of extinction,
either presently (endangered) or in the foreseeable future
(threatened).
We determine whether any species is endangered or threatened as a
result of any one or a combination of the following five factors: The
present or threatened destruction, modification, or curtailment of its
habitat or range; overutilization for commercial, recreational,
scientific, or educational purposes; disease or predation; the
inadequacy of existing regulatory mechanisms; or other natural or
manmade factors affecting its continued existence (ESA section
4(a)(1)(A)-(E)). Section 4(b)(1)(A) of the ESA requires us to make
listing determinations based solely on the best scientific and
commercial data available after conducting a review of the status of
the species and after taking into account efforts being made by any
State or foreign nation or political subdivision thereof to protect the
species.
The petition to list Pacific bluefin tuna identified the risk
classification made by the International Union for Conservation of
Nature (IUCN). The IUCN assessed the status of Pacific bluefin tuna and
categorized the species
[[Page 37061]]
as ``vulnerable'' in 2014, meaning that the species was considered to
be facing a high risk of extinction in the wild (Collette et al.,
2014). Species classifications under IUCN and the ESA are not
equivalent; data standards, criteria used to evaluate species, and
treatment of uncertainty are not necessarily the same. Thus, when a
petition cites such classifications, we will evaluate the source of
information that the classification is based upon in light of the ESA's
standards on extinction risk and threats discussed above.
Status Review
As part of our comprehensive status review of the Pacific bluefin
tuna, we formed a status review team (SRT) comprised of Federal
scientists from NMFS' Southwest Fisheries Science Center (SWFSC) having
scientific expertise in tuna and other highly migratory species biology
and ecology, population estimation and modeling, fisheries management,
conservation biology, and climatology. We asked the SRT to compile and
review the best available scientific and commercial information, and
then to: (1) Conduct a ``distinct population segment'' (DPS) analysis
to determine if there are any DPSs of Pacific bluefin tuna; (2)
identify whether there are any portions of the species' geographic
range that are significant in terms of the species' overall viability;
and (3) evaluate the extinction risk of the population, taking into
account both threats to the population and its biological status. While
the petitioner did not request that we list any particular DPS(s) of
the Pacific bluefin tuna, we decided to evaluate whether any
populations met the criteria of our DPS Policy, in case doing so might
result in a conservation benefit to the species. Generally, however, we
opt to consider the species' rangewide status, rather than considering
whether any DPSs might exist.
In order to complete the status review, the SRT considered a
variety of scientific information from the literature, unpublished
documents, and direct communications with researchers working on
Pacific bluefin tuna, as well as technical information submitted to
NMFS. Information that was not previously peer-reviewed was formally
reviewed by the SRT. Only the best-available science was considered
further. The SRT evaluated all factors highlighted by the petitioners
as well as additional factors that may contribute to Pacific bluefin
tuna vulnerability.
In assessing population (stock) structure and trends in abundance
and productivity, the SRT relied on the International Scientific
Committee for Tuna and Tuna-Like Species' (ISC) recently completed
peer-reviewed stock assessment (ISC 2016). The ISC was established in
1995 for the purpose of enhancing scientific research and cooperation
for conservation and rational utilization of HMS species of the North
Pacific Ocean, and to establish the scientific groundwork for the
conservation and rational utilization of the HMS species in the North
Pacific Ocean. The ISC is currently composed of scientists representing
the following seven countries: Canada, Chinese Taipei, Japan, Republic
of Korea, Mexico, People's Republic of China, and the United States.
The ISC conducts regular stock assessments to assemble fishery
statistics and biological information, estimate population parameters,
summarize stock status, and develop conservation advice. The results
are submitted to Regional Fishery Management Organizations (RFMOs), in
particular the Western and Central Pacific Fisheries Commission (WCPFC)
and the Inter-American Tropical Tuna Commission (IATTC), for review and
are used as a basis of management actions. NMFS believes the ISC stock
assessment (ISC 2016) represents best available science because: (1) It
is the only scientifically based stock assessment of Pacific bluefin
tuna; (2) it was completed by expert scientists of the ISC, including
key contributions from the United States; (3) it was peer reviewed; and
(4) we consider the input parameters to the assessment to represent the
best available data, information, and assumptions.
The SRT analyzed the status of Pacific bluefin tuna in a 3-step
progressive process. First, the SRT evaluated 25 individual threats
(covering the five factors in ESA section 4(a)(1)(A)-(E)). The SRT
evaluated how each threat affects the species and contributes to a
decline or degradation of Pacific bluefin tuna by ranking each threat
in terms of severity (1-4, with ``1'' representing the lowest
contribution, and ``4'' representing the highest contribution). The
threats were evaluated in light of the Pacific bluefin tuna's
vulnerability of and exposure to the threat, and its biological
response.
Following the initial rankings of specific threats, the SRT
identified those threats where the range of rankings across the SRT was
greater than one. For these threats, subsequent discussions ensured
that the interpretation of the threat and its time-frame were clear and
consistent across team members. For example, it was necessary to
clarify that threats were considered only as they related to existing
management measures and not historical management. After clarification,
and a final round of discussion, each team member provided a final set
of severity rankings for each specific threat.
There were three specific threats (Illegal, Unregulated, and
Unreported fishing, International Management, and sea surface
temperature rise) for which the range of severity rankings remained
greater than one after they had been discussed thoroughly. For these
threats the SRT carried out a Structured Expert Decision Making process
(SEDM) to determine the final severity rank. In this SEDM approach,
each team member was asked to apportion 100 plausibility points across
the four levels of severity. Points were totaled and mean scores were
calculated. The severity level with the highest mean was determined to
be the final ranking. As will be further detailed in the Analysis of
Threats and Extinction Risk Analysis sections of this notice, the SRT
also used SEDM in steps 2 and 3 of its analysis.
The purpose of decision structuring is to provide a rational,
thorough, and transparent decision, the basis for which is clear to
both the decision maker(s) and to other observers, and to provide a
means to capture uncertainty in the decision(s). Use of qualitative
risk analysis and structured expert opinion methods allows for a
rigorous decision-making process, the defensible use of expert opinion,
and a well-documented record of how a decision was made. These tools
also accommodate limitations in human understanding and allow for
problem solving in complex situations. Risk analysis and other
structured processes require uncertainty to be dealt with explicitly
and biases controlled for. The information used may be empirical data,
or it may come from subjective rankings or expert opinion expressed in
explicit terms. Even in cases where data are sufficient to allow a
quantitative analysis, the structuring process is important to clearly
link outcomes and decision standards, and thereby reveal the reasoning
behind the decision.
This initial evaluation of individual threats and the potential
demographic risk they pose forms the basis of understanding used during
steps 2 and 3 of the SRT's analysis.
In the second step of its analysis, the SRT used the same ranking
system to evaluate the risk of each of the five factors in ESA section
4(a)(1)(A)-(E) contributing to a decline or degradation of Pacific
bluefin tuna. This involved a consideration of the combination of all
threats that fall under each of the five
[[Page 37062]]
factors. In the final step, the SRT evaluated the overall extinction
risk for Pacific bluefin tuna over two timeframes--25 years and 100
years.
The SRT's draft status review report was subjected to independent
peer review as required by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB)
Final Information Quality Bulletin for Peer Review (M- 05-03; December
16, 2004). The draft status review report was peer reviewed by
independent specialists selected from the academic and scientific
community, with expertise in tuna and/or highly migratory species
biology, conservation, and management. The peer reviewers were asked to
evaluate the adequacy, appropriateness, and application of data used in
the status review report, including the extinction risk analysis. All
peer reviewer comments were addressed prior to dissemination and
finalization of the draft status review report and publication of this
finding.
We subsequently reviewed the status review report, its cited
references, and peer review comments, and believe the status review
report, upon which this 12-month finding is based, provides the best
available scientific and commercial information on the Pacific bluefin
tuna. Much of the information discussed below on Pacific bluefin tuna
biology, distribution, abundance, threats, and extinction risk is
attributable to the status review report. However, in making the 12-
month finding determination, we have independently applied the
statutory provisions of the ESA, including evaluation of the factors
set forth in section 4(a)(1)(A)-(E); our regulations regarding listing
determinations (50 CFR part 424); our Policy Regarding the Recognition
of Distinct Vertebrate Population Segments Under the Endangered Species
Act (DPS Policy, 61 FR 4722; February 7, 1996); and our Final Policy on
Interpretation of the Phrase ``Significant Portion of Its Range'' in
the Endangered Species Act's Definitions of ``Endangered Species'' and
``Threatened Species (SPR Policy, 79 FR 37578; July 1, 2014).
Pacific Bluefin Tuna Description, Life History, and Ecology
Taxonomy and Description of Species
Pacific bluefin tuna (Thunnus orientalis) belong to the family
Scombridae (order Perciformes). They are one of three species of
bluefin tuna; the other two are the southern bluefin tuna (Thunnus
maccoyii) and the Atlantic bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus). The three
species can be distinguished based on internal and external morphology
as described by Collette (1999). The three species are also distinct
genetically (Chow and Inoue 1993; Chow and Kishino 1995) and have
limited overlap in their geographic ranges.
Pacific bluefin tuna are large predators reaching nearly 3 meters
(m) in length and 500 kilograms (kg) in weight (ISC 2016). They are
pelagic species known to form large schools. As with all tunas and
mackerels, Pacific bluefin tuna are fusiform in shape and possess
numerous adaptations to facilitate efficient swimming. These include
depressions in the body that accommodate the retraction of fins to
reduce drag and a lunate tail that is among the most efficient tail
shapes for generating thrust in sustained swimming (Bernal et al.,
2001).
One of the most unique aspects of Pacific bluefin tuna biology is
their ability to maintain a body temperature that is above ambient
temperature (endothermy). While some other tunas and billfishes are
also endothermic, these adaptations are highly advanced in the bluefin
tunas (Carey et al., 1971; Graham and Dickson 2001) that can elevate
the temperature of their viscera, locomotor muscle and cranial region.
The elevation of their body temperature enables a more efficient energy
usage and allows for the exploitation of a broader habitat range than
would be available otherwise (Bernal, et al., 2001).
Range, Habitat Use, and Migration
The Pacific bluefin tuna is a highly migratory species that is
primarily distributed in sub-tropical and temperate latitudes of the
North Pacific Ocean (NPO) between 20[deg] N. and 50[deg] N., but is
occasionally found in tropical waters and in the southern hemisphere,
in waters around New Zealand (Bayliff 1994).
As members of a pelagic species, Pacific bluefin tuna use a range
of habitats including open-water, coastal seas, and seamounts. Pacific
bluefin tuna occur from the surface to depths of at least 550 m,
although they spend most of their time in the upper 120 m of the water
column (Kitagawa, et al., 2000; 2004; 2007; Boustany et al. 2010). As
with many other pelagic species, Pacific bluefin tuna are often found
along frontal zones where forage fish tend to be concentrated
(Kitagawa, et al., 2009). Off the west coast of the United States,
Pacific bluefin tuna are often more tightly clustered near areas of
high productivity and more dispersed in areas of low productivity
(Boustany, et al., 2010).
Pacific bluefin tuna exhibit large inter-annual variations in
movement (e.g., numbers of migrants, timing of migration and migration
routes); however, general patterns of migration have been established
using catch data and tagging study results (Bayliff 1994; Boustany et
al., 2010; Block et al., 2011; Whitlock et al., 2015). Pacific bluefin
tuna begin their lives in the western Pacific Ocean (WPO). Generally,
age 0-1 fish migrate north along the Japanese and Korean coasts in the
summer and south in the winter (Inagake et al., 2001; Itoh et al.,
2003; Yoon et al., 2012). Depending on ocean conditions, an unknown
portion of young individuals (1-3 years old) from the WPO migrate
eastward across the NPO, spending several years as juveniles in the
eastern Pacific Ocean (EPO) before returning to the WPO (Bayliff 1994;
Inagake et al., 2001; Perle 2011). Their migration rates have not been
quantified and it is unknown what proportion of the population migrates
to the EPO and what factors contribute to the high degree of
variability across years.
While in the EPO, the juveniles make north-south migrations along
the west coast of North America (Kitagawa et al., 2007; Boustany et
al., 2010; Perle, 2011). Pacific bluefin tuna tagged in the California
Current span approximately 10[deg] of latitude between Monterey Bay
(36[deg] N.) and northern Baja California (26[deg] N.) (Boustany et
al., 2010; Block et al., 2011; Whitlock et al., 2015), although some
individuals have been recorded as far north as Washington. This
migration loosely follows the seasonal cycle of sea surface
temperature, such that Pacific bluefin tuna move northward as
temperatures warm in late summer to fall (Block et al., 2011). These
movements also follow shifts in local peaks in primary productivity (as
measured by surface chlorophyll) (Boustany et al., 2010; Block et al.,
2011). In the spring, Pacific bluefin tuna are concentrated off the
southern coast of Baja California; in summer, Pacific bluefin tuna move
northwest into the Southern California Bight; by fall, they are largely
distributed between northern Baja California and northern California.
In winter, Pacific bluefin tuna are generally more dispersed, with some
individuals remaining near the coast, and some moving farther offshore
(Boustany et al., 2010).
After spending up to 5 years in the EPO, individuals return to the
WPO where the only two spawning grounds (a southern area near the
Philippines and Ryukyu Islands, and a northern area in the Sea of
Japan) have been documented. No spawning activity, eggs, or larvae have
been observed in the EPO. The timing of spawning and
[[Page 37063]]
the particular spawning ground used after their return to the WPO has
not been established. Mature adults in the WPO generally migrate
northwards to feeding grounds after spawning, although a small
proportion of fish may move southward or eastward (Itoh 2006). Some of
the mature individuals that migrate south are taken in New Zealand
fisheries (Bayliff 1994, Smith et al., 2001), but the migration pathway
of these individuals is unknown. It is also not known how long they may
remain in the South Pacific.
Reproduction and Growth
Like most pelagic fish, Pacific bluefin tuna are broadcast spawners
and spawn more than once in their lifetime, and they spawn multiple
times in a single spawning season (Okochi, et al., 2016). They are
highly fecund, and the number of eggs they release during each spawning
event is positively and linearly correlated with fish length and weight
(Okochi et al., 2016; Ashida et al., 2015). Estimates of fecundity for
female tuna from the southern spawning area (Philippines and Ryukyu
Islands) indicate that individual fish can produce from 5 to 35 million
eggs per spawning event (Ashida et al., 2015; Shimose et al., 2016;
Chen et al., 2006). Females in the northern spawning ground (Sea of
Japan) produce 780,000-13.89 million eggs per spawning event in fish
116-170 cm fork length (FL) (Okochi, et al., 2016).
Histological studies have shown that approximately 80 percent of
the individuals found in the Sea of Japan from June to August are
reproductively mature (Tanaka, et al., 2006, Okochi et al., 2016). This
percentage does not necessarily represent the whole population as fish
outside the Sea of Japan were not examined.
Spawning in Pacific bluefin tuna occurs in only comparatively warm
waters, so larvae are found within a relatively narrow sea surface
temperature (SST) range (23.5-29.5 [deg]C) compared to juveniles and
adults (Kimura et al., 2010; Tanaka & Suzuki 2016). Larvae are thought
to be transported primarily by the northward flowing Kuroshio Current
and are largely found off coastal Japan, both in the Pacific Ocean and
Sea of Japan (Kimura et al., 2010).
As discussed above, spawning in Pacific bluefin tuna has been
recorded only in two locations: Near the Philippines and Ryukyu
Islands, and in the Sea of Japan (Okochi et al., 2016; Shimose & Farley
2016). These two spawning grounds differ in both timing and the size
composition of individuals. Near the Philippines and Ryukyu Islands,
spawning occurs from April to July and fish are from 6-25 years of age,
though most are older than 9 years of age. In the Sea of Japan,
spawning occurs later (June to August) and fish are 3-26 years old.
Pacific bluefin tuna exhibit rapid growth, reaching 58 cm or more
in length by age 1 and frequently more than 1 m in length by age 3
(Shimose et al., 2009; Shimose and Ishihara 2015). The species tends to
reach its maximum length of around 2.3 m at age 15 (Shimose et al.,
2009; Shimose and Ishihara 2015). The oldest Pacific bluefin tuna
recorded was 26 years old and measured nearly 2.5 m in length (Shimose
et al., 2009).
Feeding habits
Pacific bluefin tuna are opportunistic feeders. Small individuals
(age 0) feed on small squid and zooplankton (Shimose et al., 2013).
Larger individuals (age 1+) have a diverse forage base that is
temporally variable and, in both the EPO and WPO, they feed on a
variety of fishes, cephalopods, and crustaceans (Pinkas et al., 1971;
Shimose et al., 2013; Madigan et al., 2016; O. Snodgrass, NMFS SWFSC,
unpublished data). Diet data indicate they forage in surface waters, on
mesopelagic prey and even on benthic prey. The SWFSC conducted stomach
content analysis of age 1-5 Pacific bluefin tuna caught off the coast
of California from 2008 to 2016 and found that Pacific bluefin tuna are
generalists altering their feeding habits depending on localized prey
abundance (O. Snodgrass, NMFS SWFSC, unpublished data).
Species Finding
Based on the best available scientific and commercial information
summarized above, we find that the Pacific bluefin tuna is currently
considered a taxonomically-distinct species and, therefore, meets the
definition of ``species'' pursuant to section 3 of the ESA. Below, we
evaluate whether the species warrants listing as endangered or
threatened under the ESA throughout all or a significant portion of its
range.
Distinct Population Segment Determination
While we were not petitioned to list a distinct population segment
(DPS) of the Pacific bluefin tuna and are therefore not required to
identify DPSs, we decided, in this case, to evaluate whether any
populations of the species meet the DPS Policy criteria. As described
above, the ESA's definition of ``species'' includes ``any subspecies of
fish or wildlife or plants, and any distinct population segment of any
species of vertebrate fish or wildlife which interbreeds when mature.''
The DPS Policy requires the consideration of two elements: (1) The
discreteness of the population segment in relation to the remainder of
the species to which it belongs; and (2) the significance of the
population segment to the species to which it belongs.
A population segment of a vertebrate species may be considered
discrete if it satisfies either one of the following conditions: (1) It
is markedly separated from other populations of the same taxon as a
consequence of physical, physiological, ecological, or behavioral
factors. Quantitative measures of genetic or morphological
discontinuity may provide evidence of this separation; or (2) it is
delimited by international governmental boundaries within which
differences in control of exploitation, management of habitat,
conservation status, or regulatory mechanisms exist that are
significant in light of section 4(a)(1)(D) of the ESA. If a population
segment is found to be discrete under one or both of the above
conditions, its biological and ecological significance to the taxon to
which it belongs is evaluated. Factors that can be considered in
evaluating significance may include, but are not limited to: (1)
Persistence of the discrete population segment in an ecological setting
unusual or unique for the taxon; (2) evidence that the loss of the
discrete population segment would result in a significant gap in the
range of a taxon; (3) evidence that the discrete population segment
represents the only surviving natural occurrence of a taxon that may be
more abundant elsewhere as an introduced population outside its
historic range; or (4) evidence that the discrete population segment
differs markedly from other populations of the species in its genetic
characteristics.
Pacific bluefin tuna are currently managed as a single stock with a
trans-Pacific range. We considered a number of factors related to
Pacific bluefin tuna movement patterns, geographic range, and life
history that relate to the discreteness criteria. Among the many
characteristics of Pacific bluefin tuna that were discussed as
contributing factors to the determination of ESA discreteness, three
were regarded as carrying the most weight in the identification of
DPSs. The strongest argument for the existence of a DPS was the spatial
specificity of Pacific bluefin tuna spawning. The strongest arguments
against the existence of a DPS included Pacific bluefin tuna migratory
behavior
[[Page 37064]]
and genetic characteristics of the Pacific bluefin tuna.
Based on the current understanding of Pacific bluefin tuna
movements, Pacific bluefin tuna use one of two areas in the WPO to
spawn. There is no evidence to suggest that these represent two
separate populations but rather that, as fish increase in size, they
shift from using the Sea of Japan to using the spawning ground near the
Ryukyu Islands (e.g., Shimose et al., 2016). The spawning areas are
also characterized by physical oceanographic conditions (e.g.,
temperature), rather than a spatially fixed feature (e.g., a seamount
or promontory). This implies that the location of the spawning grounds
may be temporally and spatially fluid, as conditions change over time.
Given these considerations, the existence of two spatially distinct
spawning grounds does not provide compelling evidence that discrete
population segments exist for Pacific bluefin tuna. In addition,
concentrations of adult Pacific bluefin tuna on the spawning grounds
are found only during spawning times and not year-round.
Catch data and conventional and electronic tagging data demonstrate
the highly migratory nature of Pacific bluefin tuna. Results support
broad mixing around the Pacific. While fish cross the Pacific from the
WPO to the EPO, results indicate that they then return to the WPO to
spawn. Furthermore, the limited genetic data currently available (Tseng
et al., 2012; Nomura et al., 2014) do not support the presence of
genetically distinct population segments within the Pacific bluefin
tuna.
Pacific Bluefin Tuna Stock Assessment
The ISC stock assessment presented population dynamics of Pacific
bluefin tuna based on catch per unit effort data from 1952-2015 using a
fully integrated age-structured model. The model included various life-
history parameters including a length/age relationship and natural
mortality estimates from tag-recapture and empirical life-history
studies. Specific details on the modelling methods can be found in the
ISC stock assessment available at https://isc.fra.go.jp/reports/stock_assessments.html.
The 2016 ISC Pacific bluefin tuna stock assessment indicated three
major trends: (1) Spawning stock biomass (SSB) fluctuated from 1952-
2014; (2) SSB declined from 1996 to 2010; and (3) the decline in SSB
has ceased since 2010 yet remains near to its historical low.
Based on the stock assessment model, the 2014 SSB was estimated to
be around 17,000 mt, which represents 143,053 individuals capable of
spawning. Relative to the theoretical, model-derived SSB had there been
no fishing (i.e., the ``unfished'' SSB; 644,466 mt), 17,000 mt
represents approximately 2.6 percent of fish in the spawning year
classes. It is important to note that unfished SSB is a theoretical
number derived from the stock assessment model and does not represent a
``true'' estimate of what the SSB would have been with no fishing. This
is because it is based on the equilibrium assumptions of the model
(e.g., no environmental or density-dependent effects) and it changes
with model structures. That is, in the absence of density-dependent
effects on the population, the estimate may overestimate the population
size that can be supported by the environment and may change with
improved input parameters. When compared to the highest SSB of 160,004
mt estimated by the model in 1959, the SSB in 2014 is 10.6 percent of
the 1952-2014 historical peak.
It is important to note that while the SSB as estimated by the ISC
stock assessment is 2.6 percent of the theoretical, model-derived,
``unfished'' SSB, this value is based on a theoretical unfished
population, and only includes fish of spawning size/age. Based on the
estimated number of individuals at each age class, the number of
individuals capable of spawning in 2014 was 143,053. However, total
population size, including non-spawning capable individuals that have
not yet reached spawning age, is estimated at 1,625,837. This yields an
8 percent ratio of spawning-capable individuals to total population.
From 1952-2014, this ratio has ranged from 28 percent in 1960 to 2.5
percent in 1984, with a mean of 8 percent. The ratio in 2014 indicates
that, relative to population size, there were more spawning-capable
fish than in some years even with a similarly low total population size
(e.g., 1982-84), and the ratio was at the average for the period 1952-
2014.
The 2016 ISC stock assessment was also used to project changes in
SSB through the year 2034. The assessment evaluated 11 scenarios in
which various management strategies were altered from the status quo
(e.g., reduction in landings of smaller vs. larger individuals) and
recruitment scenarios were variable (e.g., low to high recruitment).
None of these 11 scenarios resulted in a projected reduction in SSB
through fishing year 2034.
The stock assessment also indicates that Pacific bluefin tuna is
overfished and that overfishing is occurring. This assessment, however,
is based on the abundance of the species through 2014. As described in
the following section on existing regulatory measures, the first
Pacific bluefin tuna regulations that placed limits on harvest were
implemented in 2012 with additional regulations implemented in 2014 and
2015.
Summary of Factors Affecting Pacific Bluefin Tuna
As described above, section 4(a)(1) of the ESA and NMFS'
implementing regulations (50 CFR 424.11(c)) state that we must
determine whether a species is endangered or threatened because of any
one or a combination of the following factors: The present or
threatened destruction, modification, or curtailment of its habitat or
range; overutilization for commercial, recreational, scientific, or
educational purposes; disease or predation; inadequacy of existing
regulatory mechanisms; or other natural or manmade factors affecting
its continued existence. We evaluated whether and the extent to which
each of the foregoing factors contribute to the overall extinction risk
of Pacific bluefin tuna, with a ``significant'' contribution defined,
for purposes of this evaluation, as increasing the risk to such a
degree that the factor affects the species' demographics (i.e.,
abundance, productivity, spatial structure, diversity) either to the
point where the species is strongly influenced by stochastic or
depensatory processes or is on a trajectory toward this point.
For their extinction risk analysis, the SRT members evaluated
threats and the extinction risk over two time frames. The SRT used 25
years (~3 generations for Pacific bluefin tuna) for the short time
frame and 100 years (~13 generations) for the long time frame. The SRT
concluded that the short time frame was a realistic window to evaluate
current effects of potential threats with a good degree of reliability,
especially when considering the limits of population forecasting models
(e.g., projected population trends in stock assessment models). The SRT
also concluded that 100 years was a more realistic window through which
to evaluate the effects of a threat in the more distant future that, by
nature, may not be able to be evaluated over shorter time periods. For
example, the potential effects of climate change from external forces
are best considered on multi-decadal to centennial timescales, due to
the predominance of natural variability in determining environmental
conditions in the shorter term.
[[Page 37065]]
The following sections briefly summarize our findings and
conclusions regarding threats to the Pacific bluefin tuna and their
impact on the overall extinction risk of the species. More details can
be found in the status review report, which is incorporated here by
reference.
A. The Present or Threatened Destruction, Modification, or Curtailment
of Its Habitat or Range
Water Pollution
Given their highly migratory nature, Pacific bluefin tuna may be
exposed to a variety of contaminants and pollutants. Pollutants vary in
terms of their concentrations and composition depending on location,
with higher concentrations typically occurring in coastal waters. There
are two classes of pollutants in the sea that are most prevalent and
that could pose potential risks to Pacific bluefin tuna: Persistent
Organic Pollutants (POPs) and mercury. However, the SRT also considered
Fukushima derived radiation and oil pollution as independent threats.
Persistent organic pollutants are organic compounds that are
resistant to environmental degradation and are most often derived from
pesticides, solvents, pharmaceuticals, or industrial chemicals. Common
POPs in the marine environment include the organochlorine
Dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT) and Polychlorinated biphenyls
(PCBs). Because they are not readily broken down and enter the food-
web, POPs tend to bioaccumulate in marine organisms. In fishes, some
POPs have been shown to impair reproductive function (e.g., white
croaker; Cross et al., 1988; Hose et al., 1989).
Specific information on POPs in Pacific bluefin tuna is limited.
Ueno et al. (2002) examined the accumulation of POPs (e.g., PCBs, DDTs,
and chlordanes (CHLs)) in the livers of Pacific bluefin tuna collected
from coastal Japan. They determined, as expected, that the uptake of
these organochlorines was driven by dietary uptake rather than through
exposure to contaminated water (i.e., through the gills). This research
showed that levels of organochlorines were positively and linearly
correlated with body length. Body length normalized values for PCBs,
DDTs, and CHLs were calculated as 530-2,600 ng/g lipid weight, 660-800
ng/g lipid weight, and 87-300 ng/g lipid weight, respectively. More
recently, Chiesa et al. (2016) measured pollutants from Pacific bluefin
tuna in the Western Central Pacific Ocean and found that 100 percent of
the individuals sampled tested positive for five of the six PCBs
assayed. Three POPs (specifically, polybrominated diphenyl ethers) were
detected in 5-60 percent of fish examined. Two organochlorines were
detected in 30-80 percent of samples. Unlike the findings of Ueno et
al. (2002) from coastal Japan, no DDT or its end-products were detected
in Pacific bluefin tuna in the Western Central Pacific Ocean.
While POPs have been detected in the tissues of Pacific bluefin
tuna (see above), much higher levels have been measured in other marine
fish (e.g., pelagic sharks; Lyons et al., 2015). While there is a lack
of direct experimentation on the potential impacts of POPs on Pacific
bluefin tuna, there are currently no studies which indicate that they
exist at levels that are harmful to Pacific bluefin tuna. Based on the
findings in the status review, we conclude that POPs pose no to low
risk of contributing to a decline or degradation of the Pacific bluefin
tuna.
Mercury (Hg) enters the oceans primarily through the atmosphere-
water interface. Initial sources of Hg are both natural and
anthropogenic. One of the main sources of anthropogenic Hg is coal-
fired power-plants. Total Hg emissions to the atmosphere have been
estimated at 6,500-8,200 Mg/yr, of which 4,600-5,300 Mg/yr (50-75
percent) are from natural sources (Driscoll et al., 2013). In water,
elemental Hg is converted to methyl-Hg by bacteria. Once methylated, Hg
is easily absorbed by plankton and thus enters the marine food-web. As
with POPs, Hg bioaccumulates and concentrations increase in higher
trophic level organisms.
As a top predator, Pacific bluefin tuna can potentially accumulate
high levels of Hg. Several studies have examined Hg in Pacific bluefin
tuna and reported a wide range of concentrations that vary based on
geographic location. In the WPO, measured Hg concentrations ranged from
0.66-3.23 [mu]g/g wet mass (Hisamichi et al., 2010; Yamashita et al.,
2005), whereas in the EPO they ranged from 0.31-0.508 [mu]g/g wet mass
(Lares et al., 2012; Coman et al., 2015). The latter study demonstrated
that in the EPO individuals that had recently arrived from the WPO
contained higher Hg concentrations than those that had resided in the
EPO for 1-3 years, including wild-caught individuals being raised in
net pens. By comparison, concentrations of Hg in Atlantic bluefin tuna
have been measured at 0.25-3.15 mg/kg wet mass (Lee et al., 2016).
Notably, Lee et al. (2016) demonstrated that Hg concentrations in
Atlantic bluefin tuna declined 19 percent over an 8-year period from
the 1990s to the early 2000s, a result of reduced anthropogenic Hg
emissions in North America. Tunas are also known to accumulate high
levels of selenium (Se), which is suggested to have a detoxifying
effect on methyl-Hg compounds (reviewed in Ralston et al., 2016).
The petitioners suggest that since some bluefin products are above
1 ppm, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration's (FDA) threshold, there
is cause for concern with regard to bluefin tuna health. The FDA levels
are set at the point at which consumption is not recommended for
children and women of child bearing age and are not linked to fish
health. While methyl Hg compounds have been shown to cause
neurobiological changes in a variety of animals, there have been no
studies on tuna or tuna-like species showing detrimental effects from
methyl Hg. As with the POPs, other marine species have much higher
levels of Hg contamination (Montiero and Lopes 1990; Lyons et al.,
2015). The SRT was unanimous in the determination that Hg contamination
does not pose a direct threat to Pacific bluefin tuna.
We find that water pollution poses no risk of contributing to a
decline or degradation of the Pacific bluefin tuna. While we
acknowledge that bioaccumulation of pollutants in Pacific bluefin tuna
may result in some risk to consumers, the absence of empirical studies
showing that water pollution has direct effects on Pacific bluefin tuna
implies that water pollution is not a high risk for Pacific bluefin
tuna themselves.
Plastic Pollution
Plastics have become a major source of pollution on a global scale
and in all major marine habitats (Law 2017). In 2014, global plastic
production was estimated to be 311 million metric tons (mt) (Plast.
Eur. 2015). Plastics are the most abundant material collected as
floating marine debris or from beaches (Law et al., 2010; Law 2017) and
are known to occur on the seafloor. Impacts on the marine environment
vary with type of plastic debris. Larger plastic debris can cause
entanglement leading to injury or death, while ingestion of smaller
plastic debris has the potential to cause injury to the digestive tract
or accumulation of indigestible material in the gut. Studies have also
shown that chemical pollutants may be adsorbed into plastic debris
which would provide an additional pathway for exposure (e.g., Chua et
al., 2014). Small plastics (microplastics) have been documented as the
primary source of ingested plastic materials among fish species,
particularly opportunistic planktivores
[[Page 37066]]
(e.g., Rochman et al., 2013; 2014; Matsson et al., 2015). Few studies
have examined microplastic ingestion by larger predatory fishes such as
Pacific bluefin tuna and results from these studies are mixed.
Cannon et al. (2016) found no evidence of plastics in the digestive
tracts of skipjack tuna (Katsuwonis pelamis) and blue mackerel (Scomber
australensis) in Tasmania. Choy and Drazen (2013) found no evidence of
plastic ingestion in K. pelamis and yellowfin tuna (Thunnus albacares)
in Hawaiian waters, but found that approximately 33 percent of bigeye
tuna (Thunnus obesus) had anthropogenic plastic debris in their
stomachs. While no specific studies on plastic ingestion in Pacific
bluefin tuna are available, a study of foraging ecology in the EPO
found no plastic in over 500 stomachs examined from 2008-2016 (O.
Snodgrass, NMFS, unpublished data).
We find that plastic ingestion by Pacific bluefin tuna poses no to
low risk of contributing to a decline or degradation of the Pacific
bluefin tuna. This was based in large part upon the absence of
empirical evidence of large amounts of macro- and micro-plastic
directly impacting individual Pacific bluefin tuna health.
Oil and Gas Development
There are numerous examples of oil and gas exploration and
operations posing a threat to marine organisms and habitats. Threats
include seismic activities during exploration and construction and
events such as oil spills or uncontrolled natural gas escape where
released chemicals can have severe and immediate effects on wildlife.
Unfortunately, there is limited information on the direct impacts
of oil and gas exploration and operation on pelagic fishes such as
Pacific bluefin tuna. Studies looking at the impacts of seismic
exploration on fish have mixed results. Wardle et al. (2001) and Popper
et al. (2005) documented low to moderate impacts on behavior or
hearing, whereas McCauley et al. (2003) reported long-term hearing loss
from air-gun exposure. Risk associated with seismic exploration would
likely be less of a concern for highly migratory species that can move
away and do not use sounds to communicate. Reduced catch rates in areas
for a period of time after air guns have been used are considered
evidence for this avoidance behavior in a range of species (Popper and
Hastings 2009).
The effects of seismic exploration on larval Pacific bluefin tuna,
however, could be greater than on older individuals due in part to the
reduced capacity of larvae to move away from affected areas. Davies et
al. (1989) stated that fish eggs and larvae can be killed at sound
levels of 226-234 decibel (dB), which are typically found at 0.6-3.0 m
from an air gun such as those used during seismic exploration. Visual
damage to larvae can occur at 216 dB, levels found approximately 5 m
from the air gun. Less obvious impacts such as disruptions to
developing organs are harder to gauge and are little explored in the
scientific literature; however, severe physical damage or mortality
appears to be limited to larvae within a few meters of an air gun
discharge (Dalen et al., 1987; Patin & Cascio 1999).
The most relevant study, for the purposes of the SRT, is an
evaluation of the impacts of oil pollution on the larval stage of
Atlantic bluefin tuna. Oil released from the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil
spill in the Gulf of Mexico covered approximately 10 percent of the
spawning habitat, prompting concerns about larval survival (Muhling et
al., 2012). Modeled western Atlantic bluefin tuna recruitment for 2010
was low compared to historical values, but it is not yet clear whether
this was primarily due to oil-induced mortality, or unfavorable
oceanographic conditions (Domingues et al., 2016). Results from
laboratory studies showed that exposure to oil resulted in significant
defects in heart development in larval Atlantic bluefin tuna (Incardona
et al., 2014) with a likely reduction in fitness. A similar response
would be expected in Pacific bluefin tuna. Consequently, an oil spill
in or around the spawning grounds has the potential to impact larval
survival of Pacific bluefin tuna. Previous spills near the spawning
grounds have mostly been from ships (e.g., Varlamov et al., 1999; Chiau
2005), and have resulted in much smaller, more coastally confined
releases into the marine environment than from the Deepwater Horizon
incident. However, offshore oil exploration has increased in the region
in recent years, potentially increasing the risks of a large-scale
spill. Despite these considerations, the overall risks to Pacific
bluefin tuna associated with an oil spill were considered to be low for
a number of reasons: (1) Large oil spills are rare events; (2) Pacific
bluefin tuna larvae are spread over two spawning grounds with little
oceanographic connectivity between them, reducing risk to the
population as a whole; and (3) the population is broadly dispersed
overall.
Oil and gas infrastructure may have beneficial impacts on the
marine environment by providing habitat for a range of species and de
facto no fishing zones. California has been a prime area of research
into the effects of decommissioned oil platforms. Claisse et al. (2014)
showed that offshore oil platforms have the highest measured fish
production of any habitat in the world, exceeding even coral reefs and
estuaries. Caselle et al. (2002) showed that even remnant oil field
debris (e.g., defunct pipe lines, piers, and associated structures)
harbored diverse fish communities. This pattern is not unique to
California. For example, Fabi et al. (2004) showed that fish diversity
and richness increased within the first year after installation of two
gas platforms in the Adriatic Sea, and that biomass of fishes on these
platforms was substantial. Consequently, oil platforms may provide
forage and refuge for Pacific bluefin tuna.
In summary, we consider oil and gas development to pose no to low
risk of contributing to a decline or degradation of the Pacific bluefin
tuna.
Wind Energy Development
Concerns about climate impacts linked to the use of petroleum
products has led to an increase in renewable energy programs over the
past two decades. Offshore and coastal wind energy generating stations
have been among the fastest growing renewable energy sectors,
particularly in shallow coastal areas, which generally have consistent
wind patterns and reduced infrastructure costs due to shallow depths
and proximity to land.
Impacts of wind energy generating stations on marine fauna have
been well studied (see K[ouml]ppel, 2017 for examples). There have been
some studies predicting negative effects on marine life, particularly
birds and benthic organisms, but few empirical studies have
demonstrated direct impacts to fishes. Wilson et al. (2010) reviewed
numerous papers discussing the impacts of wind energy infrastructure
and concluded that while they are not environmentally benign, the
impacts are minor and can often be ameliorated by proper placement.
Studies on wind energy development and its impact on fishes has
largely focused on demersal species assemblages. Similar to oil and gas
platforms, wind energy platforms have been shown to have a positive
effect on demersal fish communities in that they tend to harbor high
diversity and biomass of fish populations (e.g., Wilhelmsson et al.,
2006). Following construction of ``wind farms,'' one particular concern
has been the effects of noise created by the operating mechanisms on
fish. Wahlberg and Westerberg (2005) concluded that wind
[[Page 37067]]
farm noise does not have any destructive effects on the hearing ability
of fish, even within a few meters. The major impact of the noise is
largely restricted to masking communication between fish species which
use sounds (Wahlberg and Westerberg, 2005). Given that Pacific bluefin
tuna are not known to use sounds for communication, the impact of noise
would be minimal if any. Additionally, wind farms are likely to serve
as de facto fish aggregating devices and may prove beneficial at
attracting prey and thus Pacific bluefin tuna as well. Also, given the
highly migratory nature of Pacific bluefin tuna and their broad range,
wind farms would not take up a large portion of their range and could
be avoided.
We find that wind energy development poses no to low risk of
contributing to a decline or degradation of the Pacific bluefin tuna.
This was based largely on the ability of Pacific bluefin tuna to avoid
wind farms and the absence of empirical evidence showing harm directly
to Pacific bluefin tuna.
Large-Scale Aquaculture
Operation of coastal aquaculture facilities can degrade local water
quality, mostly through uneaten fish feed and feces, leading to
nutrient pollution. The severity of these issues depends on the species
being farmed, food composition and uptake efficiency, fish density in
net pens, and the location and design of pens (Naylor et al., 2005).
There are several offshore culture facilities throughout the world,
most being within 25 kilometers (km) of shore.
The petition by CBD highlights a proposed offshore aquaculture
facility in California as a potential threat to Pacific bluefin tuna.
The proposed Rose Canyon aquaculture project would construct a facility
to raise yellowtail jack approximately 7 km from the San Diego coast.
The high capacity of the proposed project (reaching up to 5,000 mt
annually after 8 years of operation) has raised concerns about
resulting impacts to the surrounding marine environment. As the
proposed aquaculture facility would act as a point source of
pollutants, the potential impacts to widely distributed pelagic species
such as Pacific bluefin tuna will depend on oceanographic dispersal of
these pollutants within the Southern California Bight (SCB) and
surrounding regions.
Data from current meters and Acoustic Doppler Current Profilers
(ADCPs) near Point Loma have recorded seasonally reversing, and highly
variable, alongshore flows (Hendricks 1977; Carson et al., 2010).
However, cross-shelf currents were much weaker. Similarly, Lahet and
Stramski (2010) showed that river plumes in the San Diego area
identified by satellite ocean color imagery moved variably north or
south along the coast until dispersing, but were not advected offshore.
Recent studies using high-resolution simulations of a regional oceanic
modeling system have also shown limited connectivity between the
nearshore region off San Diego and the open SCB (Dong et al., 2009;
Mitari et al., 2009). This suggests that pollutants resulting from the
proposed Rose Canyon aquaculture facility would likely be dispersed
along the southern California and northern Baja California coasts
rather than offshore. Pacific bluefin tuna are distributed throughout
much of the California Current ecosystem, and are often caught more
than 100 km from shore (Holbeck et al., 2017). Tagging studies have
also shown very broad habitat use of Pacific bluefin tuna offshore of
Baja California and California (Boustany et al., 2010). It should be
noted that any aquaculture facilities in the United States are
subjected to rigorous environmental reviews and standards prior to
being permitted.
We find that habitat degradation from large-scale aquaculture poses
no to low risk of contributing to population decline or degradation in
Pacific bluefin tuna over both time-scales largely due to the very
small proportion of their habitat which would be impacted as well as
the absence of empirical evidence showing harm directly to Pacific
bluefin tuna.
Prey Depletion
As highly migratory, fast-swimming top predators, tunas have
relatively high energy requirements (Olson and Boggs 1986; Korsmeyer
and Dewar 2001; Whitlock et al., 2013; Golet et al., 2015). They
fulfill these needs by feeding on a wide range of vertebrate and
invertebrate prey, the relative contribution of which varies by
species, region, and time period. Pacific bluefin tuna in the
California Current ecosystem have been shown to prey on forage fish
such as anchovy, as well as squid and crustaceans (Pinkas et al., 1971;
Snodgrass et al., unpublished data). As commercial fisheries also
target some of these species, substantial removals could conceivably
reduce the prey base for predators such as Pacific bluefin tuna.
Previous studies have used trophic ecosystem models to show that high
rates of fishing on forage species could adversely impact other
portions of the ecosystem, including higher-order predators (Smith et
al., 2011; Pikitch et al., 2012).
Biomass of the two main forage fish in the California Current,
sardine and anchovy, has been low in recent years (Lindegren et al.,
2013; Lluch-Cota 2013). This likely represents part of the natural
cycle of these species, which appear to undergo frequent ``boom and
bust'' cycles, even in the absence of industrial-scale fishing
(Schwartzlose et al., 1999; McClatchie et al., 2017). Pacific bluefin
tuna appear to be generalists and consequently are less impacted by
these shifts in abundance than specialists. Pinkas et al. (1971) found
that Pacific bluefin tuna diets in the late 1960s were mostly anchovy
(>80 percent), coinciding with a period of relatively high anchovy
biomass. In contrast, more recent data from the 2000s show a much
higher dominance of squid and crustaceans in Pacific bluefin tuna
diets, with high interannual variability (Snodgrass et al., unpublished
data). Neither study recorded a substantial contribution of sardine to
Pacific bluefin tuna diets, but both diet studies (Pinkas et al.,
Snodgrass et al., unpublished data) were conducted during years in
which sardine biomass was comparatively low.
This ability to switch between prey species may be one reason why
Hilborn et al. (2017) found little evidence that forage fish population
fluctuations drive biomass of higher order consumers, including tunas.
This disconnect is clear for Pacific bluefin tuna. For example, in the
1980s, Pacific bluefin tuna biomass and recruitment were both very low,
but forage fish abundances in both the California Current and Kuroshio-
Oyashio ecosystems were high (Lindegren et al., 2013; Yatsu et al.,
2014). Hilborn et al. (2017) considered that a major weakness of
previous trophic studies was a lack of consideration of this strongly
fluctuating nature of forage fish populations through time. Predators
have thus likely adapted to high variability in abundance of forage
fish and other prey species by being generalists.
However, although Pacific bluefin tuna have a broad and varied prey
base in the California Current, the physiological effects of switching
between dominant prey types are not well known. Some species are more
energy-rich than others, and may have lower metabolic costs to catch
and digest (Olson & Boggs 1986; Whitlock et al., 2013). Fluctuations in
the energy content and size spectra of a prey species may also be
important, as was found for the closely-related Atlantic bluefin tuna
(Golet et al., 2015). It is
[[Page 37068]]
therefore not yet clear how periods of strong reliance on anchovy vs.
invertebrates, for example, may impact the condition and fitness of
Pacific bluefin tuna.
We find that prey depletion poses a very low threat to Pacific
bluefin tuna over the 25-year time frame, primarily because it is clear
that they are generally adapted to natural fluctuations of forage fish
biomass through prey switching. We also find that prey depletion may
pose a low to moderate threat over the 100-year timeframe, albeit with
low certainty. This was mainly because climate change is expected to
alter ecosystem structure and function to produce potentially novel
conditions, over an evolutionarily short time period. If this results
in a less favorable prey base for Pacific bluefin tuna, in either the
California Current or other foraging areas, impacts on the population
may be more deleterious than they have been in the past.
B. Overutilization for Commercial, Recreational, Scientific or
Educational Purposes
Potential threats to the Pacific bluefin tuna from overutilization
for commercial, recreational, scientific or educational purposes also
includes illegal, unregulated and unreported fishing. Each of these
potential threats is discussed in the following sections.
Commercial Fishing
Commercial fishing for Pacific bluefin tuna has occurred in the
western Pacific since at least the late 1800s. Records from Japan
indicate that several methods were used prior to 1952 when catch
records began to be taken in earnest and included longline, pole and
line, drift net, and set net fisheries. Estimates of global landings
prior to 1952 peaked around 47,635 mt (36,217 mt in the WPO and 11,418
mt in the EPO) in 1935 (Muto et al., 2008). After 1935, landings
dropped in response to a shift in maritime activities caused by World
War II. Fishing activities expanded across the North Pacific Ocean
after the conclusion of the war, and landings increased consistently
for the next decade prior to becoming more variable (Muto et al.,
2008).
There are currently five major contributors to the Pacific bluefin
tuna fisheries: Japan, Korea, Mexico, Taiwan, and the United States.
Each operates in nearshore coastal waters in the Pacific Ocean while a
few also operate in distant offshore waters. In modern fisheries,
Pacific bluefin tuna are taken by a wide range of fishing gears (e.g.,
longline, purse seine, set net, troll, pole-and-line, drift nets, and
hand line fisheries), which target different size classes (see below).
Among these fisheries, purse seine fisheries are currently the primary
contributor to landings, with the Japanese fleet being responsible for
the majority of the catch. Much of the global purse-seine catch
supports commercial grow-out facilities where fish aged approximately
1-3 are kept in floating pens for fattening prior to sale.
Estimates of landings indicate that annual catches of Pacific
bluefin tuna by country have fluctuated dramatically from 1952-2015.
During this period reported catches from the five major contributors to
the ISC peaked at 40,144 mt in 1956 and reached a low of 8,627 mt in
1990, with an average of 21,955 mt. Japanese fisheries are responsible
for the majority of landings, followed by Mexico, the United States,
Korea and Taiwan. In 2014, the United States reported commercial
landings of 408 mt, Taiwan reported 525 mt, Korea reported 1,311 mt,
Mexico reported 4,862 mt, and Japan reported 9,573 mt. These represent
2.4 percent, 3 percent, 7.7 percent, 28.4 percent, and 56 percent of
the total landings, respectively. Landings in the southern hemisphere
are small and concentrated around New Zealand.
The commercial Japanese Pacific bluefin tuna fisheries are
comprised of both distant-water and coastal longline vessels, coastal
trolling vessels, coastal pole-and-line vessels, coastal set net
vessels, coastal hand line vessels, and purse seiners. Each fishery
targets specific age classes of Pacific bluefin tuna: Coastal trolling
and pole and line target fish less than 1 year old, coastal set net and
coastal hand-line target ages 1-5, purse seiners target ages 0-10, and
the distant-water and coastal longline vessels target ages 5-20. The
distant water longline fisheries have operated for the longest time
while the coastal longline fisheries did not begin in earnest until the
mid-1960s. Between 1952 and 2015, total annual catches by Japanese
fisheries have fluctuated between a maximum of approximately 34,000 mt
in 1956 and a minimum of approximately 6,000 mt in 2012, and they have
averaged 15,653 mt.
The Japanese troll fleet harvests small, age-0 Pacific bluefin tuna
for its commercial aquaculture grow-out facilities. From 2005-2015, the
harvest of Pacific bluefin tuna for grow-out by the troll fishery has
averaged 14 percent of Japan's total landings (approximately 8.5
percent of global landings) by weight.
Nearly all commercial Pacific bluefin tuna catches by U.S. flagged
vessels on the west coast of the United States are landed in
California. Historically, the commercial fisheries for Pacific bluefin
tuna focused their efforts on the fishing grounds off Baja California,
Mexico, until the 1980s. Following the creation of Mexico's EEZ, the
U.S. purse seine fisheries largely ceased their efforts in Mexico and
became more opportunistic (Aires-da-Silva et al., 2007). Since 1980,
commercial landings of Pacific bluefin tuna have fluctuated
dramatically, averaging 859.2 mt with two peaks in 1986 (4,731.4 mt)
and 1996 (4,687.6 mt). The low catch rates are not caused by the
absence of Pacific bluefin tuna, but rather the absence of a dedicated
fishery, low market price, and the inability to fish in the Mexican
EEZ. In 2014, commercial landings of Pacific bluefin tuna in the United
States were 408 mt, representing 2.4 percent of the total global
landings.
Mexico's harvest of Pacific bluefin tuna is dominated by its purse
seine fisheries, which dramatically increased in size following the
creation of Mexico's EEZ. While most of the purse seine fisheries
target yellowfin tuna (the dominant species in the catch) in tropical
waters, Pacific bluefin tuna are caught by purse seine near Baja
California. Since 1952, reported landings in Mexico have ranged from 1-
9,927 mt with an average of 1,766.7 mt (ISC catch database https://isc.fra.go.jp/fisheries_statistics/). Since grow-out
facilities began in Mexico in 1997, the purse seine fishery for Pacific
bluefin tuna almost exclusively supports these facilities. These
facilities take in age 1-3 Pacific bluefin tuna and ``fatten'' them in
floating pens for export and represent virtually all of Mexico's
reported capture of Pacific bluefin tuna. From 2005-2015, Mexico's
harvest for its grow-out facilities has averaged 26.8 percent of the
global landings.
The Korean take of Pacific bluefin tuna is dominated by its
offshore purse seine fishery with a small contribution by the coastal
troll fisheries. The fisheries generally operate off Jeju Island with
occasional forays into the Yellow Sea (Yoon et al., 2014). The purse
seine fisheries did not fully develop until the mid-1990s, and landings
were below 500 mt prior to this. Landings gradually increased and
peaked at 2,601 mt in 2003, but have declined since then, with 676 mt
landed in 2015. Since 1952, the average reported Korean landings of
Pacific bluefin tuna has been 535 mt (data not reported from 1952-
1971).
Historically, the Taiwanese fisheries have used a wide array of
gears, but since the early 1990s the fisheries are largely comprised of
small-scale longline vessels. These vessels are targeting fish on the
spawning grounds
[[Page 37069]]
near the Ryukyu Islands. The highest reported catch was in 1990 at
3,000 mt; however, landings declined to less than 1,000 mt in 2008 and
to their lowest level of about 200 mt in 2012. Landings have since
increased and the preliminary estimate of Pacific bluefin tuna landings
in 2015 was 542 mt. Since 1952, Taiwanese landings of Pacific bluefin
tuna have averaged 658 mt.
We acknowledge the Petitioner's concern that a large proportion of
Pacific bluefin tuna caught are between 0 and 2 years of age. The
petition states that 97.6 percent of fish are caught before they have a
chance to reproduce, and argues that this is a worrisome example of
growth overfishing. The interpretation of the severity of this
statement requires acknowledging several factors that are used to
evaluate the production (amount of ``new'' fish capable of being
produced by the current stock). Importantly, the estimate of production
includes considering factors such as recruitment, growth of individuals
(thus moving from one age class to the next and potentially reaching
sexual maturity), catch, and natural mortality. Excluding all other
parameters except catch results in erroneous interpretations of the
severity of a high proportion of immature fish being landed on an
annual basis. If all year classes are taken into account, the
percentage of fish in the entire population (not just in the age 0 age
class) that are harvested before reaching maturity is closer to 82
percent. While we acknowledge that this is not an ideal harvest target,
it is a more accurate representation of the catch of immature fish.
Growth overfishing occurs when the average size of harvested
individuals is smaller than the size that would produce the maximum
yield per recruit. The effect of growth overfishing is that total yield
(i.e., population size) is less than it would be if all fish were
allowed to grow to a larger size. Reductions in yield per recruit due
to growth overfishing can be ameliorated by reducing fishing mortality
(i.e., reduced landings) and/or increasing the average size of
harvested fish, both of which have been recommended by the relevant
Regional Fisheries Management Organizations (RFMOs) and adopted for the
purse seine fisheries in the western and central Pacific Ocean.
We consider commercial fishing to pose the greatest risk to
contribute to the decline or degradation of the Pacific bluefin tuna.
Threat scores given by the BRT members for commercial fishing ranged
from moderate to high (severity score of 2 to 3 with a mean of 2.29).
While we acknowledge that past trends in commercial landings have been
the largest contributor to the decline in the Pacific bluefin tuna, we
find the population size in the terminal year of the ISC stock
assessment (2014; >1,625,000 individuals and >143,000 spawning-capable
individuals) as sufficient to prevent extinction in the foreseeable
future. This is due to the fact that the population size is large
enough to prevent small population effects (e.g., Allee effects) from
having negative consequences. We also note that none of the scenarios
evaluated in the ISC stock projections showed declining trends. This
likely indicates that the proposed reductions in landings in the ISC
stock assessment that were adopted by the relevant RFMOs and have been
implemented by participating countries are likely to prevent future
declines. Therefore, we consider commercial fishing to pose a moderate
to high risk to contribute to the degradation of Pacific bluefin tuna.
Recreational Fishing
Recreational fishing for Pacific bluefin tuna occurs to some extent
in most areas where Pacific bluefin tuna occur relatively close to
shore. The majority of recreational effort appears to be in the United
States, although this may be an artifact of a lack of record keeping
outside of the United States. From the mid-1980s onward, the majority
of U.S. Pacific bluefin tuna landings have been from recreational
fisheries. Along the west coast of the United States, the recreational
fishing fleet for highly migratory species such as Pacific bluefin tuna
is comprised of commercial passenger fishing vessels (CPFVs) and
privately owned vessels operating from ports in southern California.
The vast majority of recreational fishing vessels operate from
ports in southern California from Los Angeles south to the U.S./Mexico
border, with a large proportion operating out of San Diego. Much of the
catch actually occurs in Mexican waters. The recreational catch for
Pacific bluefin tuna is dominated by hook and line fishing with a very
small contribution from spear fishing. The landings for Pacific bluefin
tuna are highly variable. This variability is linked to changes in the
number of young fish that move from the western Pacific (Bayliff 1994),
and potentially regional oceanographic variability, and is not taken to
reflect changes in overall Pacific-wide abundance.
In addition to variability in immigration to the EPO, regulatory
measures impact the number of fish caught. As mentioned, most U.S.
fishing effort occurs in Mexican waters. In July 2014, Mexico banned
the capture of Pacific bluefin tuna in its EEZ for the remainder of the
year, reducing the catch by the U.S. recreational fleet. In 2015, while
this ban was lifted, the United States instituted a two fish per angler
per day bag limit and a 6 fish per multi-day fishing trip bag limit on
Pacific bluefin tuna, lowered from 10 fish per angler per day and 30
fish total for multi-day trips (80 FR 44887; July 28, 2015). It is
difficult to quantify the effects of the reduced bag limit at the
current time as there are only two years of landings data following the
reduction (2015-16). This is further complicated by an absence of an
index of availability of Pacific bluefin tuna to the recreational
fishery. Anecdotal evidence in the form of informal crew and fisher
interviews suggests that Pacific bluefin tuna have been in high
abundance since 2012. CPFV landings in 2014-16 declined following an
exceptionally productive year in 2013. Whether this was an effect of
the reduced bag limit or an artifact of Pacific bluefin tuna
availability is uncertain. While the petition raises the concern that
the two fish per day per angler bag limit is insufficient as the
fishery is ``open access'' (an angler may fish as many days as they
wish), it is important to note that the number of anglers participating
in CPFV trips has not increased dramatically since the late 1990s. It
should also be noted that the average number of Pacific bluefin tuna
caught per angler on an annual basis has never exceeded 1.4 (2013),
thus the two fish per day per angler bag limit will effectively prevent
a major expansion of the Pacific bluefin tuna recreational landings.
Since 1980, the peak of the U.S. recreational fishery was in 2013
when 63,702 individual fish were reported in CPFV log books, with an
estimated weight of 809 tons. This was more than the total U.S.
commercial catch in 2013 (10.1 mt), keeping in mind that commercial
vessels cannot go into Mexican waters. The average recreational catch
is far lower (264 mt average from 2006-2015). The peak recreational
CPFV landings in the United States in 2013 represented 7 percent of the
total global catch of Pacific bluefin tuna in that same year, whereas
in 2015 it represented 3.2 percent of total global catch.
Private vessel landings are more difficult to quantify as they rely
on voluntary interviews with fishers at only a few of the many landing
ports. In 2015, the estimated landings by private vessels was 6,195
individual Pacific bluefin tuna, which represented approximately 30
percent of all U.S.
[[Page 37070]]
recreational landings. Note, that these values are not included in the
estimates above and represent additional landings.
At 3.2 percent of the total global landings, we consider the U.S.
recreational fishery to be a minor overall contributor to the global
catch of Pacific bluefin tuna, and recent measures have been
implemented to reduce landings. Given that recreational landings have
been reduced through increased management, we consider recreational
fishing as posing no or a low risk of contributing to population
decline or degradation in Pacific bluefin tuna.
Illegal, Unreported, or Unregulated Fishing
Illegal, Unreported or Unregulated (IUU) fishing, as defined in 50
CFR 300.201, means:
(1) In the case of parties to an international fishery management
agreement to which the United States is a party, fishing activities
that violate conservation and management measures required under an
international fishery management agreement to which the United States
is a party, including but not limited to catch limits or quotas,
capacity restrictions, bycatch reduction requirements, shark
conservation measures, and data reporting;
(2) In the case of non-parties to an international fishery
management agreement to which the United States is a party, fishing
activities that would undermine the conservation of the resources
managed under that agreement;
(3) Overfishing of fish stocks shared by the United States, for
which there are no applicable international conservation or management
measures, or in areas with no applicable international fishery
management organization or agreement, that has adverse impacts on such
stocks;
(4) Fishing activity that has a significant adverse impact on
seamounts, hydrothermal vents, cold water corals and other vulnerable
marine ecosystems located beyond any national jurisdiction, for which
there are no applicable conservation or management measures or in areas
with no applicable international fishery management organization or
agreement; or
(5) Fishing activities by foreign flagged vessels in U.S. waters
without authorization of the United States.
While there is likely some level of IUU fishing for Pacific bluefin
tuna in the Pacific, no reports of substantial IUU fishing have
emerged, thus the amount cannot be determined. However, improvements to
catch document schemes in several countries have been proposed/
implemented in an effort to combat IUU harvest, and the most recent
advice from the relevant RFMOs requires improvements to reporting. The
SRT members had a range of opinions on the effects of IUU fishing on
population decline or degradation for Pacific bluefin tuna, ranging
from no impact to moderate impact. The SRT therefore performed a SEDM
analysis to arrive at the conclusion that the magnitude of potential
IUU fishing losses for Pacific bluefin tuna were likely low relative to
existing commercial catches and thus not likely to increase
substantially in the future; however, the certainty around this
determination is low.
Given the absence of estimates of IUU fishing losses for Pacific
bluefin tuna, we have a low level of certainty for this threat.
However, with the continued improvements in catch documentation and the
assumption of low IUU take relative to the commercial harvest, we
determined that IUU fishing represented a low to moderate risk of
contributing to population decline or degradation in Pacific bluefin
tuna.
Scientific and Educational Use
Pacific bluefin tuna are used in scientific research for a range of
studies such as migration patterns, stable isotope analysis, and
feeding preference. The amount of lethal use of Pacific bluefin tuna in
scientific and educational pursuits is negligible, as most tissues used
in research (e.g. otoliths, muscle samples) are sourced from fish
already landed by fishers. We therefore find no evidence that
scientific or educational use poses a risk to contribute to the decline
or degradation of Pacific bluefin tuna.
C. Disease and Predation
Disease
Studies of disease in Pacific bluefin tuna are largely absent from
the literature. Most studies involve the identification of parasites
normally associated with cage culture. Parasites are often associated
with mortalities and reduced production among farmed marine fishes
(Hayward et al., 2007). Epizootic levels of parasites with short,
direct, one-host life cycles, such as monogeneans, can be reached very
quickly in cultured fish because of the confinement and proximity of
these fish (Thoney and Hargis 1991). Among wild marine fishes,
parasites are usually considered benign, though they can be associated
with reduced fecundity of their hosts (Jones 2005; Hayward et al.,
2007).
Munday et al. (2003) provided a summary of metazoan infections
(myxosporeans, Kudoa sp., monogeneans, blood flukes, larval cestodes,
nematodes, copepods) in tuna species. Many metazoans infect Thunnus
spp., but not many are known to cause mortalities; most studies to date
have focused on the health and/or economic importance of these
diseases. For example, postmortem liquefaction of muscle due to
myxosporean infections occurs in albacore, yellowfin tuna, and bigeye
tuna (Thunnus obesus), and in poorly identified Thunnus spp. Lesions
caused by Kudoa sp. have been found in yellowfin tuna and southern
bluefin tuna (Langdon 1990; Kent et al., 2001). Munday et al. (2003)
report that southern bluefin tuna have been found to be infected with
an unidentified, capsalid monogenean that causes respiratory stress but
does not lead to mortality.
Young Pacific bluefin tuna are often infected with red sea bream
iridoviral, but the disease never appears in Pacific bluefin tuna more
than 1 year of age, and occurrence is restricted to periods of water
temperatures greater than 24 [deg]C (Munday et al., 2003). Mortality
rates rarely reach greater than 10 percent for young fish. The fish
either die during the acute phase of the disease, or they become
emaciated and die later.
There is no evidence of transmission of parasites or other
pathogens from captive Pacific bluefin tuna in tuna ranches. This is
likely due to the fact that wild Pacific bluefin tuna are not likely to
be in close enough proximity to pens used to house Pacific bluefin
tuna.
We find that disease poses no to low risk of contributing to
population decline or degradation in Pacific bluefin tuna. This was
based largely on the absence of empirical evidence of abnormal levels
of natural disease outbreaks in Pacific bluefin tuna, the absence of
observations of wild Pacific bluefin tuna swimming in close enough
proximity to ``farms'' such that disease transmission is possible, and
the absence of empirical evidence showing disease transmission from
``farms'' to wild Pacific bluefin tuna.
Predation
As large predators, Pacific bluefin tuna are not heavily preyed
upon naturally after their first few years. Predators of adult Pacific
bluefin tuna may include marine mammals such as killer whales (Orcinus
orca) or shark species such as white (Carcharodon carcharias) and mako
sharks (Isurus spp.) (Nortarbartolo di Sciara 1987; Collette and Klein-
MacPhee 2002; de
[[Page 37071]]
Stephanis 2004; Fromentin and Powers 2005). Juvenile Pacific bluefin
tuna may be preyed upon by larger opportunistic predators and, to a
lesser degree, seabirds.
We find that natural predation poses no to low risk of contributing
to population decline or degradation in Pacific bluefin tuna. This was
based primarily on the limited diversity of predators and absence of
empirical evidence showing abnormal decline/degradation of Pacific
bluefin tuna by predation.
D. The Inadequacy of Existing Regulatory Mechanisms
The current management and regulatory schemes for Pacific bluefin
tuna are intrinsically linked to the patterns of utilization discussed
in the previous section ``Overutilization for Commercial, Recreational,
Scientific or Educational Purposes.'' The evaluation in this section
focuses on the adequacy or inadequacy of the current management and
regulatory schemes to address the threats identified in the section on
``Overutilization for Commercial, Recreational, Scientific or
Educational Purposes.''
Pacific bluefin tuna fisheries are managed under the authorities of
the Magnuson-Stevens Fishery Conservation and Management Act (MSA), the
Tuna Conventions Act of 1950 (TCA), and the Western and Central Pacific
Fisheries Convention Implementation Act (WCPFCIA). The TCA and WCPFCIA
authorize the Secretary of Commerce to implement the conservation and
management measures of the Inter-American Tropical Tuna Commission
(IATTC) and Western and Central Pacific Fisheries Commission (WCPFC),
respectively.
International Fisheries Management
Pacific bluefin tuna is managed as a single Pacific-wide stock
under two RFMOs: The IATTC and the WCPFC. Both RFMOs are responsible
for establishing conservation and management measures based on the
scientific information, such as stock status, obtained from the ISC.
The IATTC has scientific staff that, in addition to conducting
scientific studies and stock assessments, also provides science-based
management advice. After reviewing the Pacific bluefin tuna stock
assessment prepared by the ISC, the IATTC develops resolutions. Mexico
and the United States are the two IATTC member countries that currently
fish for, and have historically fished for, Pacific bluefin tuna in the
EPO. Thus, the IATTC resolutions adopted were intended to apply to
these two countries.
The WCPFC has a Northern Committee (WCPFC-NC), which consists of a
subset of the WCPFC members and cooperating non-members, that meets
annually in advance of the WCPFC meeting to discuss management of
designated ``northern stocks'' (currently North Pacific albacore,
Pacific bluefin tuna, and North Pacific swordfish). After reviewing the
stock assessments prepared by the ISC, the WCPFC-NC develops the
conservation and management measures for northern stocks and makes
recommendations to the full Commission for the adoption of measures.
Because Pacific bluefin tuna is a ``northern stock'' in the WCPFC
Convention Area, without the recommendation of the Northern Committee,
those measures would not be adopted by the WCPFC. The WCPFC's
Scientific Committee also has a role in providing advice to the WCPFC
with respect to Pacific bluefin tuna; to date its role has been largely
limited to reviewing and endorsing the stock assessments prepared by
the ISC.
The IATTC and WCPFC first adopted conservation and management
measures for Pacific bluefin tuna in 2009, and the measures have been
revised five times. The conservation and management measures include
harvest limits, size limits, and stock status monitoring plans. In
recent years, coordination among both RFMOs has improved in an effort
to harmonize conservation and management measures to rebuild the
depleted stock. The most relevant resolutions as they relate to recent
Pacific bluefin tuna management are detailed below.
In 2012, the IATTC adopted Resolution C-12-09, which set commercial
catch limits on Pacific bluefin tuna in the EPO for the first time.
This resolution limited catch by all IATTC members to 5,600 mt in 2012
and to 10,000 mt in 2012 and 2013 combined, notwithstanding an
allowance of up to 500 mt annually for any member with a historical
catch record of Pacific bluefin tuna in the eastern Pacific Ocean
(i.e., the United States and Mexico). Resolution C-13-02 applied to
2014 only and, similar to C-12-09, limited catch to 5,000 mt with an
allowance of up to 500 mt annually for the United States. Following the
advice from the IATTC scientific staff, Resolution C-14-06 further
reduced the catch limit by approximately 34 percent--6,000 mt for
Mexico and 600 mt for the United States for 2015 and 2016 combined. The
IATTC most recently adopted Resolution C-16-08. In accordance with the
recommendations of the IATTC's scientific staff, this resolution
maintains the same catch limits that were applicable to 2015 and 2016--
6,600 mt in the eastern Pacific Ocean during 2017 and 2018 combined.
The final rule implementing Resolution C-16-08 was published on April
21, 2017, and had an effective date of May 22, 2017. The most recent
regulations represent roughly a 33 percent reduction compared to the
average landings from 2010-2014 (5,142 mt). Resolution C-16-08 also
outlined next steps in developing a framework for managing the stock in
the long-term. This framework included an initial goal of rebuilding
the SSB to the median point estimate for 1952-2014 by 2024 with at
least 60 percent probability, and further specifies that the IATTC will
adopt a second rebuilding target in 2018 to be achieved by 2030. The
second Joint IATTC-WCPFC Northern Committee Working Group meeting on
Pacific bluefin tuna, that will be held August 28-September 1, 2017,
will discuss the development of a rebuilding strategy (second
rebuilding target and timeline, etc.) and long-term precautionary
management framework (e.g. management objectives, limit and target
reference points, and harvest control rules).
The conservation and management measures adopted by the WCPFC have
become increasingly restrictive since the initial 2009 measure. In
2009, total fishing effort north of 20[deg] N. was limited to the 2002-
2004 annual average level. At this time, an interim management
objective--to ensure that the current level of fishing mortality rate
was not increased in the western Pacific Ocean--was also established.
In 2010, Conservation and Management Measure (referred to as CMM) 2010-
04 established catch restrictions in addition to the effort limits
described above for 2011 and 2012. A similar measure, CMM 2012-06, was
adopted for 2013. In 2014 (CMM 2013-09) all catch of Pacific bluefin
tuna less than 30 kilograms (kg) was reduced by 15 percent below the
2002-2004 annual average. In 2015 (CMM 2014-04) the harvest of Pacific
bluefin tuna less than 30 kilograms was reduced to 50 percent of the
2002-2004 annual average. The CMM 2014-04 also limits all catches of
Pacific bluefin tuna greater than 30 kg to no more than the 2002-2004
annual average level. The measure was amended in 2015 (CMM 2015-04) to
include a requirement to adopt an ``emergency rule'' where additional
actions would be triggered if recruitment in 2016 was extremely poor.
However, this emergency rule was not
[[Page 37072]]
agreed to at the 2016 Northern Committee annual meeting. It is expected
that it will be discussed again at the Northern Committee meeting in
August 2017. Lastly, the measure was amended in 2016 (CMM 2016-04) to
allow countries to transfer some of their catch limit for Pacific
bluefin tuna less than 30 kg to their limit on fish larger than 30 kg
(i.e., increase catch of larger fish and decrease catch of smaller
fish); the reverse is not allowed. Unlike the IATTC resolutions for
Pacific bluefin tuna, the current WCPFC Pacific bluefin tuna measure
does not have an expiration date, although it may be amended or
removed. Both the IATTC and WCPFC measures require reporting to promote
compliance with the provisions of the measures.
In summary, the WCPFC adopted harvest limits for Pacific bluefin
tuna in 2010 and further reduced those limits in 2012, 2014, and 2016.
The IATTC adopted harvest limits for Pacific bluefin tuna in 2012 and
further reduced those limits in 2014 and 2016. Additionally, both RFMOs
addressed concerns about monitoring harvest by adopting monitoring and
reporting plans in 2010. Furthermore, the ISC stock assessment predicts
that under all scenarios the current harvest limits will allow for
rebuilding the abundance of Pacific bluefin tuna to targets by 2030.
After thorough discussion, the SRT members had a range of opinions
on the effects of international management on population decline or
degradation for Pacific bluefin tuna, ranging from no impact to high
impact. The SRT therefore used SEDM to arrive at the conclusion that
inadequacy of international management poses a low risk of contributing
to population decline or degradation in Pacific bluefin tuna over the
short time period (25 years) and a moderate risk over the long time
period (100 years).
Domestic Fisheries Management
Domestic fisheries are managed under the MSA. The MSA provides
regional fishery management councils with authority to prepare Fishery
Management Plans (FMPs) for the conservation and management of
fisheries in the U.S. EEZ. The MSA was reauthorized and amended in 1996
by the Sustainable Fisheries Act (SFA) and again in 2006 by the
Magnuson-Stevens Fishery Conservation and Management Reauthorization
Act (MSRA). Among other modifications, the SFA added requirements that
FMPs include measures to rebuild overfished stocks.
The Pacific Fishery Management Council (Pacific Council) has
purview over the U.S. West Coast fisheries, which catch the large
majority of Pacific bluefin tuna caught by U.S. vessels. The Pacific
Council makes recommendations on the implementation of the FMP for U.S.
West Coast Fisheries for highly migratory species (HMS FMP) for
consideration by NMFS. Additionally, the Pacific Council makes
recommendations to NMFS on issues expected to be considered by the
IATTC and WCPFC. During its November 2016 meeting, the Pacific Council,
in response to a petition that NMFS received by the Center for
Biological Diversity, recommended a review of domestic status
determination criteria for Pacific bluefin tuna at upcoming meetings in
March, June, and September 2017. The domestic status determination
criteria, also commonly referred to as reference points, are targets
for fishing effort and abundance of the population. At the March 2017
meeting, NMFS provided a report to the Pacific Council that included
domestic status determination criteria for Pacific bluefin tuna.
The Pacific Council, in response to NMFS' 2013 determination that
the Pacific bluefin tuna stock was overfished and subject to
overfishing (78 FR 41033; July 9, 2013), recommended reducing the bag
and possession limits for Pacific bluefin tuna in the recreational
fishery. The Pacific Council recommended reducing the daily bag limit
from 10 to 2 fish and the possession limit from 30 to 6 fish. Based on
analyses conducted at the SWFSC, this was projected to reduce landings
by 10.4 percent in U.S. waters and 19.4 percent in U.S. and Mexican
waters combined (Stohs, 2016). We published a final rule in 2015
implementing the bag limit of two fish per day and possession limit of
six fish per trip (80 FR 44887, July 28, 2015).
NMFS coordinates closely with the California Department of Fish and
Wildlife (CDFW) to monitor the Pacific bluefin tuna fishery. The State
of California requires that fish landed in California have a
corresponding receipt, which indicates quantity landed. Together, NMFS
and CDFW monitor landings to ensure catch limits agreed to by the IATTC
are not exceeded.
In summary, NMFS initially set limits for commercial and
recreational harvest limits in 2010 and further reduced those limits in
2012, 2014, and 2016. The CDFW monitors and reports commercial and
recreation harvest to NMFS. When U.S. commercial catch limits are met,
NMFS closes the fishery. Furthermore, the ISC stock assessment predicts
that the current harvest limits will allow for stable or increasing
Pacific bluefin tuna SSB. We expect the current harvest limits to be
effective at reducing the impact of domestic commercial and
recreational fisheries, and we will continue to monitor the
effectiveness of those regulations. We find that U.S. domestic
management of commercial and recreational fishing poses no or low risk
of contributing to population decline or degradation in Pacific bluefin
tuna.
E. Other Natural or Man-Made Factors Affecting Its Continued Existence
The other factors affecting the continued existence of Pacific
bluefin tuna that we analyzed are climate change, radiation
contamination from Fukushima, and the risks of low abundance levels
inherent in small populations.
Climate Change
Over the next several decades climate change models predict changes
to many atmospheric and oceanographic conditions. The SRT considered
these predictions in light of the best available information. The SRT
felt that there were three physical factors resulting from climate
change predictions that would have the most impact on Pacific bluefin
tuna: Rising sea surface temperatures (SST), increased ocean
acidification, and decreases in dissolved oxygen.
Rising Sea Surface Temperatures
Rising SST may affect Pacific bluefin tuna spawning and larval
development, prey availability, and trans-pacific migration habits.
Pacific bluefin tuna spawning has only been recorded in two locations:
Near the Philippines and Ryukyu Islands in spring, and in the Sea of
Japan during summer (Okochi et al., 2016; Shimose & Farley 2016).
Spawning in Pacific bluefin tuna occurs in comparatively warm waters,
and so larvae are found within a relatively narrow temperature range
(23.5-29.5 [deg]C) compared to adults (Kimura et al., 2010; Tanaka &
Suzuki 2016).
Currently, SSTs within the theoretically suitable range for larvae
are present near the Ryukyu Islands between April and June, and in the
Sea of Japan during July and August (Caiyun & Ge 2006; Seo et al.,
2014; Tanaka & Suzuki 2016). Warming of 1.5-3 [deg]C in the region may
shift suitable times to earlier in the year and/or places for spawning
northwards. Under the most pessimistic (``business as usual'')
CO2 emission and concentration scenarios, SSTs in the North
Pacific are likely to increase substantially by the end of the 21st
century (Hazen et al., 2013; Woodworth-Jefcoats et al., 2016). However,
there is considerable spatial
[[Page 37073]]
heterogeneity in these projections. The southern Pacific bluefin tuna
spawning area is projected to warm 1.5-2 [deg]C by the end of the 21st
century, with particularly weak warming in the Kuroshio Current region.
In contrast, the Sea of Japan may warm by more than 3 [deg]C compared
to recent historical conditions (Seo et al., 2014; Scott et al., 2016;
Woodworth-Jefcoats et al., 2016).
The precise mechanisms by which warming waters will affect Pacific
bluefin tuna larvae are not entirely clear. Kimura et al. (2010)
assumed that the lethal temperature for larvae was 29.5 [deg]C.
However, Muhling et al. (2010) and Tilley et al. (2016) both reported
larvae of the closely-related Atlantic bluefin tuna in the Gulf of
Mexico at SSTs of between 29.5 and 30.0 [deg]C. In addition, tropical
tuna larvae can tolerate water temperatures of well above 30 [deg]C
(Sanchez-Velasco et al., 1999; Wexler et al., 2011; Muhling et al.,
2017). Pacific bluefin tuna larvae may have fundamentally different
physiology from that of these other species, or it is possible that the
observed upper temperature limit for Pacific bluefin tuna larvae in the
field is more a product of the time and place of spawning, rather than
an upper physiological limit.
Similar to other tuna species, larval Pacific bluefin tuna appear
to have highly specialized and selective diets (Uotani et al., 1990;
Llopiz & Hobday 2015). Smaller larvae rely primarily on copepod
nauplii, before moving to cladocerans, copepods such as Farranula and
Corycaeus spp. and other zooplankton. In the Sea of Japan region, the
occurrence of potentially favorable prey organisms for larval Pacific
bluefin tuna appears to be associated with stable post-bloom conditions
during summer (Chiba & Saino, 2003). This suggests a potential
phenological match to Pacific bluefin tuna spawning. Environmentally-
driven changes in the evolution of this zooplankton community, or the
timing of spawning, could thus affect the temporal match between larvae
and their prey. Woodworth-Jefcoats et al. (2016) project a 10-20
percent decrease in overall zooplankton density in the western Pacific
Ocean, but how this may relate to larval Pacific bluefin tuna prey
availability is not yet known.
Climate change may affect the foraging habitats of Pacific bluefin
tuna. Adult and older juvenile (>1 year) Pacific bluefin tuna disperse
from the spawning grounds in the western Pacific and older juveniles
can make extensive migrations, using much of the temperate North
Pacific. An unknown proportion of 1-2 year old fish migrate to foraging
grounds in the eastern North Pacific (California Current LME) and
typically remain and forage in this region for several years (Bayliff
et al., 1991; Bayliff 1994; Rooker et al., 2001; Kitagawa et al., 2007;
Boustany et al., 2010; Block et al., 2011; Madigan et al., 2013;
Whitlock et al., 2015).
Sea surface temperatures in the California Current are expected to
increase up to 1.5-2 [deg]C by the end of the 21st century (Hazen et
al., 2013; Woodworth-Jefcoats et al., 2016). Pacific bluefin tuna
tagged in the California Current demonstrate a seasonal north-south
migration between Baja California (10[deg] N.) and near the California-
Oregon border (42[deg] N.) (Boustany et al., 2010; Block et al., 2011;
Whitlock et al., 2015), although some fish travel as far north as
Washington State. The seasonal migration follows local peaks in
productivity (as measured by surface chlorophyll), such that fish move
northward from Baja California after the local productivity peak in
late spring to summer (Boustany et al., 2010; Block et al., 2011).
Uniform warming in this region could impact Pacific bluefin tuna
distribution by moving their optimal temperature range (and thermal
tolerance) northward. However, it is unlikely that rising temperatures
will be a limiting factor for Pacific bluefin tuna, as appropriate
thermal habitat will likely remain available.
The high productivity and biodiversity of the California Current is
driven largely by seasonal coastal upwelling. Although there is
considerable uncertainty on how climate change will impact coastal
upwelling, basic principles indicate a potential for upwelling
intensification (Bakun 1990). Bakun's hypothesis suggested that the
rate of heating over land would be enhanced relative to that over the
ocean, resulting in a stronger cross-shore pressure gradient and a
proportional increase in alongshore winds and resultant upwelling
(Bakun et al., 2015; Bograd et al., 2017). A recent publication
(Sydeman et al., 2014) described a meta-analysis of historical studies
on the Bakun hypothesis and found general support for upwelling
intensification, but with significant spatial (latitudinal) and
temporal (intraseasonal) variability between and within the eastern
boundary current systems. In the California Current, a majority of
analyses indicated increased upwelling intensity during the summer
(peak) months, though this signal was most pronounced in the northern
California Current (Sydeman et al., 2014).
To date, global climate models have generally been too coarse to
adequately resolve coastal upwelling processes (Stock et al., 2010),
although recent studies analyzing ensemble model output have found
general support for projected increases in coastal upwelling in the
northern portions of the eastern boundary current systems (Wang et al.,
2015; Rykaczewski et al., 2015). Using an ensemble of more than 20
global climate models from the IPPC's Fifth Assessment Report,
Rykaczewski et al. (2015) found evidence of a small projected increase
in upwelling intensity in the California Current north of 40[deg] N.
latitude and a decrease in upwelling intensity to the south of this
range by the end of the 21st century under RCP 8.5. Pacific bluefin
tuna are more commonly found to the south of the 40[deg] N. latitude
mark. Perhaps more importantly, Rykaczewski et al. (2015) described
projected changes in the phenology of coastal upwelling, with an
earlier transition to positive upwelling within the peak upwelling
domain. Overall, these results suggest a poleward displacement of peak
upwelling and potential lengthening of the upwelling season in the
California Current, even if upwelling intensity may decrease. The
phenological changes in coastal upwelling may be most important, as
these may lead to spatial and temporal mismatches between Pacific
bluefin tuna and their preferred prey (Cushing 1990; Edwards and
Richardson 2004; Bakun et al., 2015). However, the bluefin tuna's
highly migratory nature and plasticity in migratory patterns may help
to mitigate shifts in phenology.
The information directly relating to food web alterations that may
impact Pacific bluefin tuna is scarce. While changes to upwelling
dynamics in foraging areas have been examined, it is still relatively
speculative, and literature on the potential impacts of the projected
changes is limited. Given their trophic position as an apex predator,
and the fact that Pacific bluefin tuna are opportunistic feeders that
can change their preferred diet from year to year, alterations to the
food web may have less impact on Pacific bluefin tuna than on other
organisms that are reliant on specific food sources.
Climate change may affect the Pacific bluefin tuna's migratory
pathways. Pacific bluefin tuna undergo trans-Pacific migrations, in
both directions, between the western Pacific spawning grounds and
eastern Pacific foraging grounds (Boustany et al., 2010; Block et al.,
2011). For both migrations, Pacific bluefin tuna remain within a
relatively narrow latitudinal band (30-40[deg] N.) within the North
Pacific Transition Zone (NPTZ), which is characterized by generally
temperate conditions. This
[[Page 37074]]
region, marking the boundary between the oligotrophic subtropical and
more productive subarctic gyres, is demarcated by the seasonally-
migrating Transition Zone Chlorophyll Front (TZCF; Polovina et al.,
2001; Bograd et al., 2004). Climate-driven changes in the position of
the TZCF, and in the thermal environment and productivity within this
region, could impact the migratory phase of the Pacific bluefin tuna
life cycle.
Under RCP 8.5, SSTs in the NPTZ are expected to increase by 2-3
[deg]C by the end of the 21st century (Woodworth-Jefcoats et al.,
2016), with the highest increases on the western side. The increased
temperatures within the NPTZ are part of the broader projected changes
in the central North Pacific Ocean, including an expansion of the
oligotrophic Subtropical Gyre, a northward displacement of the
transition zone, and an overall decline in productivity (Polovina et
al., 2011). The impacts of these changes on species that make extensive
use of the NPTZ could be substantial, resulting in a gain or loss of
core habitat, distributional shifts, and regional changes in
biodiversity (Hazen et al., 2013). Using habitat models based on a
multi-species biologging dataset, and a global climate model run under
``business-as-usual'' forcing (the A2 CO2 emission scenario
from the IPCC's fourth assessment report), Hazen et al. (2013) found a
substantial loss of core habitat for a number of highly migratory
species, and small gains in viable habitat for other species, including
Pacific bluefin tuna. Although the net change in total potential
Pacific bluefin tuna core habitat was positive, the projected physical
changes in the bluefin tuna's migratory pathway could negatively impact
them. The northward displacement of the NPTZ and TZCF could lead to
longer migrations requiring greater energy expenditure. The generally
lower productivity of the region could also diminish the abundance or
quality of the Pacific bluefin tuna prey base.
A recent study of projected climate change in the North Pacific
that used an ensemble of 11 climate models, including measures of
primary and secondary production, found that increasing temperatures
could alter the spatial distribution of tuna and billfish species
across the North Pacific (Woodworth-Jefcoats et al., 2016). As with
Hazen et al. (2013), this study found species richness increasing to
the north following the northward displacement of the NPTZ. They also
estimated a 2-5 percent per decade decline in overall carrying capacity
for commercially important tuna and billfish species, driven by warming
waters and a basin-scale decline in zooplankton densities (Woodworth-
Jefcoats et al., 2016). While there is still substantial uncertainty
inherent in these climate models, we can say with some confidence that
the central North Pacific, which encompasses a key conduit between
Pacific bluefin tuna spawning and foraging habitat, is likely to become
warmer and less productive through the 21st century.
Increasing Ocean Acidification and Decreasing Dissolved Oxygen
As CO2 uptake by the oceans increases, ocean pH will
continue to decrease (Feely et al., 2009), with declines of between 0.2
and 0.4 expected in the western North Pacific by 2100 under the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Representative
Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 (Ciais et al., 2013). RCP 8.5 is a high
emission scenario, which assumes that radiative forcing due to
greenhouse gas emissions will continue to increase strongly throughout
the 21st century (Riahi et al., 2011). Rearing experiments on larval
yellowfin tuna suggest that ocean acidification may result in longer
hatch times, sub-lethal organ damage, and decreased growth and survival
(Bromhead et al., 2014; Frommel et al., 2016). Other studies on coral
reef fish larvae show that acidification can impair sensory abilities
of larvae, and in combination with warming temperatures, can negatively
affect metabolic scope (Munday et al., 2009a,b; Dixson et al., 2010;
Simpson et al., 2011). Surface ocean pH on Pacific bluefin tuna
spawning grounds is currently higher than that in the broader North
Pacific (8.1-8.2) (Feely et al., 2009). How this may affect the ability
of Pacific bluefin tuna larvae (in particular) to adapt to ocean
acidification is unknown. Recent studies have shown that future
adaptation to rising CO2 and acidification could be
facilitated by individual genetic variability (Schunter et al., 2017).
In addition, transgenerational plasticity may allow surprisingly rapid
adaptation across generations (Rummer & Munday 2017). However, these
studies examined small coral reef fish species, so results may not
transfer to larger, highly migratory species such as Pacific bluefin
tuna. As well as incurring direct effects on Pacific bluefin tuna,
ocean acidification is also likely to change the prey base available to
all life stages of this species. Different organisms vary substantially
in their sensitivity to the combined effects of acidification and
warming (Byrne 2011). A shift in the prey assemblage towards organisms
more tolerant to acidification is therefore likely in the future.
Current projections estimate a future decline in dissolved oxygen
of 3-6 percent by 2100 under RCP 8.5 (Bindoff et al., 2013; Ciais et
al., 2013). This may be most relevant for spawning-sized adult Pacific
bluefin tuna, which may be subject to greater metabolic stress on
spawning grounds. While some studies exist on the effects of
temperature on metabolic rates, cardiac function and specific dynamic
action in juvenile Pacific bluefin tuna (e.g. Blank et al., 2004; 2007;
Clark et al., 2008; 2010; 2013; Whitlock et al., 2015), there are no
published studies on larger adults, or on larvae. While future warming
and decreases in dissolved oxygen may reduce the suitability of some
parts of the Pacific bluefin tuna range (e.g. Muhling et al., 2016),
likely biological responses to this are not yet known.
Another factor to include in considerations of climate change
impacts is biogeochemical changes. Driven by upper ocean warming,
changes in source waters, enhanced stratification, and reduced mixing,
the dissolved oxygen content of mid-depth oceanic waters is expected to
decline (Keeling et al., 2010). This effect is especially important in
the eastern Pacific, where the Oxygen Minimum Zone (OMZ) shoals to
depths well within the vertical habitat of Pacific bluefin tuna and
other highly migratory species and, in particular, their prey (Stramma
et al., 2010; Moffit et al., 2015). The observed trend of declining
oxygen levels in the Southern California Bight (Bograd et al., 2008;
McClatchie et al., 2010; Bograd et al., 2015), combined with an
increase in the frequency and severity of hypoxic events along the U.S.
West Coast (Chan et al., 2008; Keller et al., 2010; Booth et al.,
2012), suggests that declining oxygen content could drive ecosystem
change. Specifically, the vertical compression of viable habitat for
some benthic and pelagic species could alter the available prey base
for Pacific bluefin tuna. Given that Pacific bluefin tuna are
opportunistic feeders, they could have resilience to these climate-
driven changes in their prey base.
The effects of increasing hypoxia on marine fauna in the California
Current may be magnified by ocean acidification. Ekstrom et al. (2015)
predicted the West Coast is highly vulnerable to ecological impacts of
ocean acidification due to reduction in aragonite saturation state
exacerbated by coastal upwelling of ``corrosive,'' lower pH waters
(Feely et al., 2008). The most
[[Page 37075]]
acute impacts would be on calcifying organisms (some marine
invertebrates and pteropods), which are not generally part of the adult
Pacific bluefin tuna diet. While direct impacts of ocean acidification
on Pacific bluefin tuna may be minimal within their eastern Pacific
foraging grounds, some common Pacific bluefin tuna prey do rely on
calcifying organisms (Fabry et al., 2008).
Climate Change Conclusions
We find that ocean acidification and changes in dissolved oxygen
content due to climate change pose a very low risk to the decline or
degradation of the Pacific bluefin tuna on the short-term time scale
(25 years), and low to moderate threat on the long-time scale (100
years). The reasoning behind this decision for acidification centered
primarily on the disconnect between Pacific bluefin tuna and the lower
trophic level prey which would be directly affected by acidification as
well as by the lack of information on direct impacts on acidification
on pelagic fish. Conclusions by the SRT members on the rising SST due
to climate change required SEDM, as the range of values assigned by
each SRT member was large. Following the SEDM, the SRT concluded that
SST rise poses a low risk of contributing to population decline or
degradation in PBF over the short (25 year) and long (100 year) time
frames. This decision was reached primarily due to the highly migratory
nature of Pacific bluefin tuna; despite likely latitudinal shifts in
preferred habitat, it would take little effort for Pacific bluefin tuna
to shift their movements along with the changing conditions.
Fukushima Associated Radiation
On 11 March, 2011, the T[omacr]hoku megathrust earthquake at
magnitude 9.1 produced a devastating tsunami that hit the Pacific coast
of Japan. As a result of the earthquake, the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear
Power Plant was compromised, releasing radionuclides directly into the
adjacent sea. The result was a 1- to 2-week pulse of emissions of the
caesium radioisotopes Caesium-134 and Caesium-137. These isotopes were
biochemically available to organisms in direct contact with the
contaminated water (Oozeki et al., 2017).
Madigan et al. (2012) reported on the presence of Caesium-134 and
Caesium-137 in Pacific bluefin tuna caught in California in ratios that
strongly suggested uptake as a result of the Fukushima Daiichi
accident. The results indicated that highly migratory species can be
vectors for the trans-Pacific movement of radionuclides. Importantly,
the study highlighted that while the radiocaesium present in the
Pacific bluefin tuna analyzed was directly traceable to the Fukushima
accident, the concentrations were 30 times lower than background levels
of naturally occurring radioisotopes such as potassium-40. In addition,
Madigan et al. (2012) estimated the dose to human consumers of fish
from Fukushima derived Caesium-137 was at 0.5 percent of the dose from
Polonium-210, a natural decay product of Uranium-238, which is
ubiquitously present and in constant concentrations globally.
Fisher et al. (2013) further evaluated the dosage and associated
risks to marine organisms and humans (by consumption of contaminated
seafood) of the caesium radioisotopes associated with the Fukushima
Daiichi accident. They confirmed that dosage of radioisotopes from
consuming seafood were dominated by naturally occurring radionuclides
and that those stemming directly from Fukushima derived radiocaesium
were three to four orders of magnitude below doses from these natural
radionuclides. Doses to marine organisms were two orders of magnitude
lower than the lowest benchmark protection level for ecosystem health
(ICRP 2008). The study concluded that even on the date at which the
highest exposure levels may have been reached, dosages were very
unlikely to have exceeded reference levels. This indicates that the
amount of Fukushima derived radionuclides is not cause for concern with
regard to the potential harm to the organisms themselves.
We find that Fukushima associated radiation poses no risk of
contributing to population decline or degradation in Pacific bluefin
tuna. This was based largely on the absence of empirical evidence
showing negative effects of Fukushima derived radiation on Pacific
bluefin tuna.
Small Population Concerns
Small populations face a number of inherent risks. These risks are
tied to survival and reproduction (e.g. Allee or other depensation
effects) via three mechanisms: Ecological (e.g., mate limitation,
cooperative defense, cooperative feeding, and environmental
conditioning), genetic (e.g., inbreeding and genetic drift), and
demographic stochasticity (i.e., individual variability in survival and
recruitment) (Berec et al., 2007). The actual number at which
populations would be considered critically low and at risk varies
depending on the species and the risk being considered. While the
Pacific bluefin tuna is estimated to contain at least 1.6 million
individuals, of which more than 140,000 are reproductively capable, the
SRT deemed it prudent to examine the factors above that are
traditionally used to evaluate the impacts of relatively low population
numbers. In the paragraphs that follow we discuss how small population
size can affect reproduction, demographic stochasticity, genetics, and
how it can be affected by stochastic and catastrophic events, and Allee
effects.
In small populations, individuals may have difficulty finding a
mate. However, the probability of finding a mate depends largely on
density on the spawning grounds rather than absolute abundance. Pacific
bluefin tuna are a schooling species and individual Pacific bluefin
tuna are not randomly distributed throughout their range. They also
exhibit regular seasonal migration patterns that include aggregating at
two separate spawning grounds (Kitigawa et al., 2010). This schooling
and aggregation behavior serves to increase their local density and the
probability of individuals finding a mate. This mating strategy could
reduce the effects of small population size on finding mates over other
strategies that do not concentrate individuals. It is unknown whether
spawning behavior is triggered by environmental conditions or densities
of tuna. If density of adults triggers spawning, then reproduction
could be affected by high levels of depletion. However, the abundance
of Pacific bluefin tuna has reached similar lows in the past and
rebounded. The number of adult Pacific bluefin tuna is currently
estimated to be 2.6 percent of its unfished SSB. The number of adult
Pacific bluefin tuna reached a similar low in 1984 of 1.8 percent and
rebounded in the 1990s to 9.6 percent, the second highest level since
1952.
Another concern with small populations is demographic
stochasticity. Demographic stochasticity refers to the variability of
annual population change arising from random birth and death events at
the individual level. When populations are very small (e.g., <100
individuals), chance demographic events can have a large impact on the
population. Species with low mean annual survival rates are generally
at greater population risk from demographic stochasticity than those
that are long-lived and have high mean annual survival rates. In other
words, species that are long-lived and have high annual survival rates
have lower ``safe'' abundance thresholds, above which the risk of
extinction due to chance demographic processes becomes negligible. Even
though the percentage of adult Pacific bluefin tuna relative to
historical levels is low, they still
[[Page 37076]]
number in the hundreds of thousands. In addition, the total population
size in 2014 as estimated by the 2016 ISC stock assessment was
1,625,837. The high number of individuals, both mature and immature,
should therefore counteract a particular year with low survivorship.
Small populations may also face Allee effects. If a population is
critically small in size, Allee effects can act upon genetic diversity
to reduce the prevalence of beneficial alleles through genetic drift.
This may lower the population's fitness by reducing adaptive potential
and increasing the accumulation of deleterious alleles due to increased
levels of inbreeding. Population genetic theory typically sets a
threshold of 50 individuals (i.e., 25 males, 25 females) below which
irreversible loss of genetic diversity is likely to occur in the near
future. This value, however, is not necessarily based upon the number
of individuals present in the population (i.e., census population size,
NC) but rather on the effective population size
(NE), which is linked to the overall genetic diversity in
the population and is typically less than NC. In extreme
cases NE may be much (e.g. 10-10,000 times) smaller,
typically for species that experience high variance in reproductive
success (e.g., sweepstakes recruitment events). NE may also
be reduced in populations that deviate from a 1:1 sex ratio and from
species that have suffered a genetic bottleneck.
With respect to considerations of NE in Pacific bluefin
tuna, the following points are relevant. Although there are no
available data for nuclear DNA diversity in Pacific bluefin tuna, the
relatively high number of unique mitochondrial DNA haplotypes (Tseng et
al., 2014) can be used as a proxy for evidence of high levels of
overall genetic diversity currently within the population. With two
separate spawning grounds, and adult numbers remaining in the hundreds
of thousands, genetic diversity is expected to still be at high levels
with little chance for inbreeding, given that billions of gametes
combine in concentrated spawning events.
Animals that are highly mobile with a large range are less
susceptible to stochastic and catastrophic events (such as oil spills)
than those that occur in concentrated areas across life history stages.
Pacific bluefin tuna are likely to be resilient to catastrophic and
stochastic events for the following reasons: (1) They are highly
migratory, (2) there is a large degree of spatial separation between
life history stages, (3) there are two separated spawning areas, and
(4) adults reproduce over many years such that poor recruitment even
over a series of years will not result in reproductive collapse. As
long as this spatial arrangement persists and poor recruitment years do
not exceed the reproductive age span for the species, Pacific bluefin
tuna should be resilient to both stochastic and catastrophic events.
Although Pacific bluefin tuna are resilient to many of the risks
that small populations face, there is increasing evidence for a
reduction in population growth rate for marine fishes that have been
fished to densities below those expected from natural fluctuations
(Hutchings 2000, 2001). These studies focus on failure to recover at
expected rates. A far more serious issue is not just reducing
population growth but reducing it to the point that populations
decrease (death rates exceed recruitment). Unfortunately, the reviews
of marine fish stocks do not make a distinction between these two
important categories of depensation: Reduced but neutral or positive
growth versus negative growth. Many of the cases reviewed suggested
depensatory effects for populations reduced to relatively low levels
(0.2 to 0.5 SSBmsy) that would increase time to recovery,
but no mention was made of declining towards extinction. However, these
cases did not represent the extent of reduction observed in Pacific
bluefin tuna (0.14 SSBmsy). Thus, this case falls outside
that where recovery has been observed in other marine fishes and thus
there remains considerable uncertainty as to how the species will
respond to reductions in fishing pressure.
Hutchings et al. (2012) also show that there is no positive
relationship between per capita population growth rate and fecundity in
a review of 233 populations of teleosts. Thus, the prior confidence
that high fecundity provides more resilience to population reduction
and ability to quickly recover should be abandoned. These findings,
although not providing examples that marine fishes exploited to low
levels will decline towards extinction, suggest that at a minimum such
populations may not recover quickly. However, Pacific bluefin tuna
recently showed an instance of positive growth from a population level
similar to the most recent stock assessment. This suggests potential
for recovery at low population levels. However, the conditions needed
to allow positive growth remain uncertain.
Small Populations Conclusion
We find that small population concerns pose low risk of
contributing to population decline or degradation in Pacific bluefin
tuna over both the 25- and 100-year time scales, though with low
certainty. This was largely due to the estimated population size of
more than 1.6 million individuals, of which at least 140,000 are
reproductively capable. This, coupled with previous evidence of
recovery from similarly low numbers and newly implemented harvest
regulations, strongly suggests that small population concerns are not
particularly serious in Pacific bluefin tuna.
Analysis of Threats
As noted previously, the SRT conducted its analysis in a 3-step
progressive process. First, the SRT evaluated the risk of 25 different
threats (covering all of the ESA section 4(a)(1) categories)
contributing to a decline or degradation of Pacific bluefin tuna. The
second step was to evaluate the extinction risk in each of the 4(a)(1)
categories. Finally, they performed an overall extinction risk analysis
over two timeframes--25 years and 100 years.
In step one, the evaluation of the risk of individual threats
contributing to a decline or degradation of Pacific bluefin tuna
considered how these threats have affected and how they are expected to
continue to affect the species. The threats were evaluated in light of
the vulnerability of and exposure to the threat, and the biological
response. This evaluation of individual threats and the potential
demographic risk they pose forms the basis of understanding used during
the extinction risk analysis to inform the overall assessment of
extinction risk.
Within each threat category, individual threats have not only
different magnitudes of influence on the overall risk to the species
(weights) but also different degrees of certainty. The overall threat
within a category is cumulative across these individual threats. Thus,
the overall threat is no less than that for the individual threat with
the highest influence but may be greater as the threats are taken
together. For example, some of the individual threats rated as
``moderate'' may result in an overall threat for that category of at
least ``moderate'' but potentially ``high.'' When evaluating the
overall threat, individual team members considered all threats taken
together and performed a mental calculation, weighting the threats
according to their expertise using the definitions below.
Each team member was asked to record his or her confidence in their
overall scoring for that category. If, for example, the scoring for the
overall threat confidence was primarily a function of a single threat
and that threat had a high level of certainty, then
[[Page 37077]]
they would likely have a high level of confidence in the overall
confidence score. Alternatively, the overall confidence score could be
reduced due to a combination of threats, some of which the team members
had a low level of certainty about and consequently communicated this
lower overall level of confidence with a corresponding score (using the
definitions below). Generally, the level of confidence will be most
influenced by the level of certainty in the threats of highest
severity. The level of confidence for threats with no to low severity
within a category that contains moderate to high severity threats will
not be important to the overall level of confidence.
The level of severity is defined as the level of risk of this
threat category contributing to the decline or degradation of the
species over each time frame (over the next 25 years or over the next
100 years). Specific rankings for severity are: (1) High: The threat
category is likely to eliminate or seriously degrade the species; (2)
moderate: The threat category is likely to moderately degrade the
species; (3) low: The threat category is likely to only slightly impair
the species; and (4) none: The threat category is not likely to impact
the species.
The level of confidence is defined as the level of confidence that
the threat category is affecting, or is likely to affect, the species
over the time frame considered. Specific rankings for confidence are:
(1) High: There is a high degree of confidence to support the
conclusion that this threat category is affecting, or is likely to
affect, the species with the severity ascribed over the time frame
considered; (2) moderate: There is a moderate degree of confidence to
support the conclusion that this threat category is affecting, or is
likely to affect, the species with the severity ascribed over the time
frame considered; (3) low: There is a low degree of confidence to
support the conclusion that this threat category is affecting, or is
likely to affect, the species with the severity ascribed over the time
frame considered; and (4) none: There is no confidence to support the
conclusion that this threat category is affecting, or is likely to
affect, the species with the severity ascribed over the time frame
considered.
Based on the best available information and the SRT's SEDM
analysis, we find that overutilization, particularly by commercial
fishing activities, poses a moderate risk of decline or degradation of
the species over both the 25 and 100-year time scales. While the degree
of certainty for this risk assessment was moderate for the 25-year time
frame, it was low for the 100-year time frame. This largely reflects
the inability to accurately predict trends in both population size and
catch over the longer time frame. In addition, management regimes may
shift in either direction in response to the population trends at the
time.
Over the short and long time frames, we find that habitat
destruction, disease, and predation are not likely to pose a risk to
the extinction of the Pacific bluefin tuna. Among the specific threats
in the Habitat Destruction category, water pollution was ranked the
highest (mean severity score 1.5). This was largely due to the fact
that any degradation to Pacific bluefin tuna by water pollution is a
passive event. That is, behavioral avoidance might not be possible,
whereas other specific threats involved factors where active avoidance
would be possible.
We also find that based on the best available information and the
SRT's SEDM analysis, the inadequacy of existing regulatory mechanisms
poses a low risk of decline or degradation to the species over both the
25- and 100-year time scales, given the stable or upward trends of
future projected SSB over the short time scale from various harvest
scenarios in the 2016 ISC stock assessment. The confidence levels were
moderate for the 25-year time frame and low for the 100-year time
frame.
Lastly, we find that other natural or manmade factors, which
included climate change and small population concerns, pose a low risk
of decline or degradation to the species over the 25-year time frame
and moderate risk over the 100-year time frame.
Extinction Risk Analysis
As described previously, following the evaluation of the risk of 25
specific threats contributing to the decline or degradation of Pacific
bluefin tuna, the SRT then conducted step 2 and step 3 to perform an
extinction risk analysis. In step two the SRT used SEDM to evaluate the
contribution of each section 4(a)(1) factor to extinction risk.
Finally, in step 3 the SRT performed an overall extinction risk
analysis over two timeframes--25 years and 100 years.
This final risk assessment considered the threats, the results from
the recent stock assessment, the species life history, and historical
trends. After considering all factors, team members were asked to
distribute 100 plausibility points into one of three risk categories
for the short term and long term time frames. The short-term time frame
was 25 years and the long-term time frame was 100 years.
The SRT defined the extinction risk categories as low, moderate,
and high. The species is deemed to be at low risk of extinction if at
least one of the following conditions is met: (1) The species has high
abundance or productivity; (2) There are stable or increasing trends in
abundance; and (3) The distributional characteristics of the species
are such that they allow resiliency to catastrophes or environmental
changes. The species is deemed to be at moderate risk of extinction if
it is not at high risk and at least one of the following conditions is
met: (1) There are unstable or decreasing trends in abundance or
productivity which are substantial relative to overall population size;
(2) There have been reductions in genetic diversity; or (3) The
distributional characteristics of the species are such that they make
the species vulnerable to catastrophes or environmental changes.
Finally, the species is deemed to be at high risk of extinction if at
least one of the following conditions is met: (1) The abundance of the
species is such that depensatory effects are plausible; (2) There are
declining trends in abundance that are substantial relative to overall
population size; (3) There is low and decreasing genetic diversity; (4)
There are current or predicted environmental changes that may strongly
and negatively affect a life history stage for a significant period of
time; or (5) The species has distributional characteristics that result
in vulnerability to catastrophes or environmental changes.
The SRT members distributed their plausibility points across all
three risk categories, with most members placing their points in the
low and moderate risk categories. Over the 25-year time frame, a large
proportion of plausibility points were assigned to the low and moderate
risk by some team members. Over the 100-year time frame, more points
were assigned to the moderate risk category by all members and a few
members assigned points to the high risk category. After the scores
were recorded, the SRT calculated the average number of points for each
risk category under both the 25 and 100-year timeframes. For both
timeframes, the greatest number of points were in the low risk
category. The average number of points for the low risk category was 68
for the 25-year timeframe and 51 for the 100-year timeframe.
There are a number of factors that contributed to the low ranking
of the overall extinction risk over both the 25 and 100-year time
frames. The large number of mature individuals, while small relative to
the theoretical, model-derived unfished population, coupled
[[Page 37078]]
with the total estimated population size, was deemed sufficiently large
for Pacific bluefin tuna to avoid small population effects. Harvest
regulations have been adopted by member nations to reduce landings and
rebuild the population, with all model results from the ISC analysis
showing stable or increasing trends under current management measures.
Also, the SRT noted that over the past 40 years the SSB has been low
relative to the theoretical, model-derived unfished population (less
than 10 percent of unfished), and it has increased before. While the
SRT agreed that climate change has the potential to negatively impact
the population, many members of the team felt that the Pacific bluefin
tuna's broad distribution across habitat, vagile nature, and generalist
foraging strategy were mitigating factors in terms of extinction risk.
After evaluating the extinction risk SEDM analysis conducted by the
SRT over the 25-year and 100-year timeframes, we considered the overall
extinction risk categories described below:
High risk: A species or DPS with a high risk of extinction is at or
near a level of abundance, productivity, spatial structure, and/or
diversity that places its continued persistence in question. The
demographics of a species or DPS at such a high level of risk may be
highly uncertain and strongly influenced by stochastic or depensatory
processes. Similarly, a species or DPS may be at high risk of
extinction if it faces clear and present threats (e.g., confinement to
a small geographic area; imminent destruction, modification, or
curtailment of its habitat; or disease epidemic) that are likely to
create present and substantial demographic risks.
Moderate risk: A species or DPS is at moderate risk of extinction
if it is on a trajectory that puts it at a high level of extinction
risk in the foreseeable future (see description of ``High risk''
above). A species or DPS may be at moderate risk of extinction due to
projected threats or declining trends in abundance, productivity,
spatial structure, or diversity. The appropriate time horizon for
evaluating whether a species or DPS is more likely than not to be at
high risk in the foreseeable future depends on various case- and
species-specific factors. For example, the time horizon may reflect
certain life history characteristics (e.g., long generation time or
late age-at-maturity) and may also reflect the time frame or rate over
which identified threats are likely to impact the biological status of
the species or DPS (e.g., the rate of disease spread). (The appropriate
time horizon is not limited to the period that status can be
quantitatively modeled or predicted within predetermined limits of
statistical confidence. The biologist (or Team) should, to the extent
possible, clearly specify the time horizon over which it has confidence
in evaluating moderate risk.)
Low risk: A species or DPS is at low risk of extinction if it is
not at moderate or high level of extinction risk (see ``Moderate risk''
and ``High risk'' above). A species or DPS may be at low risk of
extinction if it is not facing threats that result in declining trends
in abundance, productivity, spatial structure, or diversity. A species
or DPS at low risk of extinction is likely to show stable or increasing
trends in abundance and productivity with connected, diverse
populations.
The SRT evaluation of extinction risk placed the majority of
distributed points in the low risk category for both the 25-year and
100-year timeframes. The SRT members explained their assessment of low
risk over those timeframes recognizing that the large number of mature
individuals, while small relative to the theoretical, model-derived
unfished population, coupled with the total estimated population size,
was deemed sufficiently large for Pacific bluefin tuna to avoid small
population effects. Harvest regulations have been adopted by member
nations to reduce landings and rebuild the population, with all model
results from the ISC stock assessment analysis (ISC 2016) showing
stable or increasing trends under current management measures. Also,
the SRT noted that over the past 40 years the SSB has been low relative
to the theoretical, model-derived unfished population (less than 10
percent of unfished), and it has increased before. While the SRT agreed
that climate change has the potential to negatively impact the
population, many members of the team felt that the Pacific bluefin
tuna's broad distribution across habitat, its vagile nature, and its
generalist foraging strategy were mitigating factors in terms of
extinction risk.
Based upon the expert opinion of the SRT and for the reasons
described above, we determine that the overall extinction risk to
Pacific bluefin tuna is most accurately characterized by the
description of the low risk category as noted above.
Review of Conservation Efforts
Section 4(b)(1) of the ESA requires that NMFS make listing
determinations based solely on the best scientific and commercial data
available after conducting a review of the status of the species and
taking into account those efforts, if any, being made by any state or
foreign nation, or political subdivisions thereof, to protect and
conserve the species. We are not aware of additional conservation
efforts being made by any state or foreign nation to protect and
conserve the species other than the fishery management agreements
already considered, thus no additional measures were evaluated in this
finding.
Significant Portion of Its Range Analysis
As the definitions of ``endangered species'' and ``threatened
species'' make clear, the determination of extinction risk can be based
on either assessment of the rangewide status of the species, or the
status of the species in a ``significant portion of its range'' (SPR).
Because we determined that the Pacific bluefin tuna is at low risk of
extinction throughout its range, the species does not warrant listing
based on its rangewide status. Next, we needed to determine whether the
species is threatened or endangered in a significant portion of its
range. According to the SPR Policy (79 FR 37577; July 1, 2014), if a
species is found to be endangered or threatened in a significant
portion of its range, the entire species is listed as endangered or
threatened, respectively, and the ESA's protections apply to all
individuals of the species wherever found.
On March 29, 2017, the Arizona District Court in Center for
Biological Diversity, et al., v. Zinke, et al., 4:14-cv-02506-RM (D.
Ariz.), a case brought against the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service
(FWS), remanded and vacated the joint FWS/NMFS SPR Policy after
concluding that the policy's definition of ``significant'' was invalid.
NMFS is not a party to the litigation. On April 26, 2017, the FWS filed
a Motion to Alter or Amend the Court's Judgment, which is pending. In
the meantime, we based our SPR analysis on our joint SPR Policy, as
discussed below.
The SPR Policy sets out the following three components:
(1) Significant: A portion of the range of a species is
``significant'' if the species is not currently endangered or
threatened throughout its range, but the portion's contribution to the
viability of the species is so important that, without the members in
that portion, the species would be in danger of extinction, or likely
to become so in the foreseeable future, throughout all of its range.
(2) The range of a species is considered to be the general
geographical area within which that species can be found at the time
NMFS
[[Page 37079]]
makes any particular status determination. This range includes those
areas used throughout all or part of the species' life cycle, even if
they are not used regularly (e.g., seasonal habitats). Lost historical
range is relevant to the analysis of the status of the species, but it
cannot constitute a SPR.
(3) If the species is endangered or threatened throughout a
significant portion of its range, and the population in that
significant portion is a valid DPS, we will list the DPS rather than
the entire taxonomic species or subspecies.
When we conduct a SPR analysis, we first identify any portions of
the range that warrant further consideration. The range of a species
can theoretically be divided into portions in an infinite number of
ways. However, there is no purpose to analyzing portions of the range
that are not reasonably likely to be of relatively greater biological
significance, or in which a species may not be endangered or
threatened. To identify only those portions that warrant further
consideration, we determine whether there is substantial information
indicating that (1) the portions may be significant and (2) the species
may be in danger of extinction in those portions or likely to become so
within the foreseeable future. We emphasize that answering these
questions in the affirmative is not a determination that the species is
endangered or threatened throughout a SPR, rather, it is a step in
determining whether a more detailed analysis of the issue is required.
Making this preliminary determination triggers a need for further
review, but does not prejudge whether the portion actually meets these
standards such that the species should be listed.
If this preliminary determination identifies a particular portion
or portions that may be significant and that may be threatened or
endangered, those portions must then be evaluated under the SPR Policy
as to whether the portion is in fact both significant and endangered or
threatened. In making a determination of significance under the SPR
Policy we would consider the contribution of the individuals in that
portion to the viability of the species. That is, we would determine
whether the portion's contribution to the viability of the species is
so important that, without the members in that portion, the species
would be in danger of extinction or likely to become so in the
foreseeable future. Depending on the biology of the species, its range,
and the threats it faces, it may be more efficient to address the
``significant'' question first, or the status question first. If we
determine that a portion of the range we are examining is not
significant, we would not need to determine whether the species is
endangered or threatened there; if we determine that the species is not
endangered or threatened in the portion of the range we are examining,
then we would not need to determine if that portion is significant.
Because Pacific bluefin tuna range broadly throughout their
lifecycle around the Pacific basin, there was no portion of the range
that, if lost, would increase the population's extinction risk. In
other words, risk of specific threats to Pacific bluefin tuna are
buffered both in space and time. To be thorough, the SRT examined the
potential for a SPR by considering the greatest known threats to the
species and whether these were localized to a significant portion of
the range of the species. The main threats to Pacific bluefin tuna
identified by the SRT were overutilization, inadequacy of management,
and climate change. Generally, these threats are spread throughout the
range of Pacific bluefin tuna and not localized to a specific region.
We also considered whether any potential SPRs might be identified
on the basis of threats faced by the species in a portion of its range
during one part of its life cycle. We further evaluated the potential
for the two known spawning areas to meet the two criteria for a SPR.
The spawning areas for Pacific bluefin tuna are likely to be somewhat
temporally and spatially fluid in that they are characterized by
physical oceanographic conditions (e.g., temperature) rather than a
spatially explicit area. While commercial fisheries target Pacific
bluefin tuna on the spawning grounds, spatial patterns of commercial
fishing have not changed significantly over many decades. The
historical pattern of exploitation on the spawning areas was part of
the consideration in evaluating the threat of overexploitation to the
species as a whole, and was determined to not significantly increase
the species' risk of extinction for the members utilizing that portion
of the range for the spawning stage of their life cycle. Given that the
species has persisted throughout this time frame and has experienced
similarly low levels of standing stock biomass, it has shown the
ability to rebound and has yet to reach critically low levels.
Therefore, it was determined that this fishery behavior has not
significantly increased the species' risk of extinction for this life
cycle phase.
Significant Portion of Its Range Determination
Pacific bluefin tuna range broadly throughout their life cycle
around the Pacific basin, and there is no portion of the range that
merits evaluation as a potential SPR. If a threat was determined to
impact the fish in the spawning area, it would impact the fish
throughout its range and, therefore, the species would warrant listing
as threatened or endangered based on its status throughout its entire
range. Based on our review of the best available information, we find
that there are no portions of the range of the Pacific bluefin tuna
that were likely to be of heightened biological significance (relative
to other areas) or likely to be either endangered or threatened
themselves.
Final Determination
Section 4(b)(1) of the ESA requires that NMFS make listing
determinations based solely on the best scientific and commercial data
available after conducting a review of the status of the species and
taking into account those efforts, if any, being made by any state or
foreign nation, or political subdivisions thereof, to protect and
conserve the species. We have independently reviewed the best available
scientific and commercial information including the petition, public
comments submitted on the 90-day finding (81 FR 70074; October 11,
2016), the status review report, and other published and unpublished
information, and have consulted with species experts and individuals
familiar with Pacific bluefin tuna. We considered each of the statutory
factors to determine whether it presented an extinction risk to the
species on its own, now or in the foreseeable future, and also
considered the combination of those factors to determine whether they
collectively contributed to the extinction risk of the species, now or
in the foreseeable future.
Our determination set forth here is based on a synthesis and
integration of the foregoing information, factors and considerations,
and their effects on the status of the species throughout its entire
range. Based on our consideration of the best available scientific and
commercial information, as summarized here and in the status review
report, we conclude that no population segments of the Pacific bluefin
tuna meet the DPS policy criteria and that the Pacific bluefin tuna
faces an overall low risk of extinction. Therefore, we conclude that
the species is not currently in danger of extinction throughout its
range nor is it
[[Page 37080]]
likely to become so within the foreseeable future. Additionally, we did
not identify any portions of the species' range that were likely to be
of heightened biological significance (relative to other areas) or
likely to be either endangered or threatened themselves. Accordingly,
the Pacific bluefin tuna does not meet the definition of a threatened
or endangered species, and thus, the Pacific bluefin tuna does not
warrant listing as threatened or endangered at this time.
This is a final action, and, therefore, we are not soliciting
public comments.
References
A complete list of all references cited herein is available upon
request (see FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT).
Authority
The authority for this action is the Endangered Species Act of
1973, as amended (16 U.S.C. 1531 et seq.).
Dated: August 3, 2017.
Samuel D. Rauch III,
Deputy Assistant Administrator for Regulatory Programs, National Marine
Fisheries Service.
[FR Doc. 2017-16668 Filed 8-7-17; 8:45 am]
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