Marketing Order Regulating the Handling of Spearmint Oil Produced in the Far West; Salable Quantities and Allotment Percentages for the 2017-2018 Marketing Year, 16001-16008 [2017-06335]
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16001
Proposed Rules
Federal Register
Vol. 82, No. 61
Friday, March 31, 2017
This section of the FEDERAL REGISTER
contains notices to the public of the proposed
issuance of rules and regulations. The
purpose of these notices is to give interested
persons an opportunity to participate in the
rule making prior to the adoption of the final
rules.
DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
Agricultural Marketing Service
7 CFR Part 985
[Doc. No. AMS–SC–16–0107; SC17–985–1
PR]
Marketing Order Regulating the
Handling of Spearmint Oil Produced in
the Far West; Salable Quantities and
Allotment Percentages for the 2017–
2018 Marketing Year
Agricultural Marketing Service,
USDA.
ACTION: Proposed rule.
AGENCY:
This proposed rule would
implement a recommendation from the
Far West Spearmint Oil Administrative
Committee (Committee) to establish the
quantity of spearmint oil produced in
the Far West, by class, that handlers
may purchase from, or handle on behalf
of, producers during the 2017–2018
marketing year, which begins on June 1,
2017. The Far West production area
includes the states of Washington,
Idaho, Oregon, and designated parts of
Nevada and Utah. The Committee
locally administers the marketing order
and is comprised of spearmint oil
producers operating within the area of
production, and a public member. This
action would establish salable quantities
and allotment percentages for Class 1
(Scotch) spearmint oil of 774,645
pounds and 36 percent, respectively,
and for Class 3 (Native) spearmint oil of
1,075,051 pounds and 44 percent,
respectively. The Committee
recommended these salable quantities
and allotment percentages to help
maintain stability in the spearmint oil
market.
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SUMMARY:
Comments must be received by
May 1, 2017.
ADDRESSES: Interested persons are
invited to submit written comments
concerning this proposal. Comments
must be sent to the Docket Clerk,
Marketing Order and Agreement
Division, Specialty Crops Program,
DATES:
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AMS, USDA, 1400 Independence
Avenue SW., STOP 0237, Washington,
DC 20250–0237; Fax: (202) 720–8938; or
Internet: https://www.regulations.gov. All
comments should reference the
document number and the date and
page number of this issue of the Federal
Register and will be made available for
public inspection in the Office of the
Docket Clerk during regular business
hours, or can be viewed at: https://
www.regulations.gov. All comments
submitted in response to this proposal
will be included in the record and will
be made available to the public. Please
be advised that the identity of the
individuals or entities submitting the
comments will be made public on the
internet at the address provided above.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Dale
Novotny, Marketing Specialist, or Gary
Olson, Regional Director, Northwest
Marketing Field Office, Marketing Order
and Agreement Division, Specialty
Crops Program, AMS, USDA;
Telephone: (503) 326–2724, Fax: (503)
326–7440, or Email: DaleJ.Novotny@
ams.usda.gov or GaryD.Olson@
ams.usda.gov.
Small businesses may request
information on complying with this
regulation by contacting Richard Lower,
Marketing Order and Agreement
Division, Specialty Crops Program,
AMS, USDA, 1400 Independence
Avenue SW., STOP 0237, Washington,
DC 20250–0237; Telephone: (202) 720–
2491, Fax: (202) 720–8938, or Email:
Richard.Lower@ams.usda.gov.
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: This
proposal is issued under Marketing
Order No. 985 (7 CFR part 985), as
amended, regulating the handling of
spearmint oil produced in the Far West
(Washington, Idaho, Oregon, and
designated parts of Nevada and Utah),
hereinafter referred to as the ‘‘order.’’
The order is effective under the
Agricultural Marketing Agreement Act
of 1937, as amended (7 U.S.C. 601–674),
hereinafter referred to as the ‘‘Act.’’
The Department of Agriculture
(USDA) is issuing this proposed rule in
conformance with Executive Orders
12866, 13563, and 13175.
This proposal has been reviewed
under Executive Order 12988, Civil
Justice Reform. This proposed rule is
not intended to have retroactive effect.
Under the order now in effect, salable
quantities and allotment percentages
may be established for classes of
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spearmint oil produced in the Far West.
This proposed rule would establish the
quantity of spearmint oil produced in
the Far West, by class, which handlers
may purchase from, or handle on behalf
of, producers during the 2017–2018
marketing year, which begins on June 1,
2017.
The Act provides that administrative
proceedings must be exhausted before
parties may file suit in court. Under
section 608c(15)(A) of the Act, any
handler subject to an order may file
with USDA a petition stating that the
order, any provision of the order, or any
obligation imposed in connection with
the order is not in accordance with law
and request a modification of the order
or to be exempted therefrom. A handler
is afforded the opportunity for a hearing
on the petition. After the hearing, USDA
would rule on the petition. The Act
provides that the district court of the
United States in any district in which
the handler is an inhabitant, or has his
or her principal place of business, has
jurisdiction to review USDA’s ruling on
the petition, provided an action is filed
not later than 20 days after the date of
the entry of the ruling.
The Committee meets annually in the
fall to adopt a marketing policy for the
ensuing marketing year or years. In
determining such marketing policy, the
Committee considers a number of
factors, including, but not limited to, the
current and projected supply, estimated
future demand, production costs, and
producer prices for all classes of
spearmint oil. Input from spearmint oil
handlers and producers regarding
prospective marketing conditions for the
upcoming year is considered as well.
If the Committee’s marketing policy
considerations indicate a need for
regulating the quantity of any or all
classes of spearmint oil marketed, the
Committee subsequently recommends to
USDA the establishment of a salable
quantity and allotment percentage for
such class or classes of oil in the
forthcoming marketing year.
Recommendations for volume
regulation are intended to ensure that
market requirements for Far West
spearmint oil are satisfied and orderly
marketing conditions are maintained.
The salable quantity represents the
total amount of each class of spearmint
oil that handlers may purchase from, or
handle on behalf of, producers during
the marketing year. The allotment
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percentage is the percentage used to
calculate each producer’s prorated share
of the salable quantity. It is derived by
dividing the salable quantity for each
class of spearmint oil by the total of all
producers’ allotment bases for the same
class of oil. Each producer’s annual
allotment of salable spearmint oil is
calculated by multiplying their
respective total allotment base by the
allotment percentage for each class of
spearmint oil. A producer’s allotment
base is their quantified share of the
spearmint oil market based on a
statistical representation of past
spearmint oil production, with
accommodation for reasonable, normal
adjustments to such base as prescribed
by the Committee and approved by
USDA.
Salable quantities and allotment
percentages are established at levels
intended to fulfill market requirements
and to maintain orderly marketing
conditions. Committee
recommendations for volume regulation
are made well in advance of the period
in which the regulations are to be
effective, thereby allowing producers
the chance to adjust their production
decisions accordingly.
Pursuant to authority in §§ 985.50,
985.51, and 985.52 of the order, the full
eight-member Committee met on
October 19, 2016, and recommended
salable quantities and allotment
percentages for both classes of oil for the
2017–2018 marketing year. By a vote of
6–2, the Committee recommended the
establishment of a salable quantity and
allotment percentage for Scotch
spearmint oil of 774,645 pounds and 36
percent, respectively. The two
Committee members that voted in
opposition to the recommendation both
supported volume regulation, but at
higher levels than were proposed. They
felt that a nearly 20 percent year-overyear reduction in the salable quantity
and allotment percentage for Scotch
spearmint oil was too severe.
For Native spearmint oil, with a
unanimous vote (7–0, with the public
member abstaining), the Committee
recommended the establishment of a
salable quantity and allotment
percentage of 1,075,051 pounds and 44
percent, respectively. Pursuant to
§ 985.29(a), seven members of the
Committee constitute a quorum, and six
concurring votes are required to pass a
motion.
This action would set the amount of
Scotch and Native spearmint oil that
handlers may purchase from, or handle
on behalf of, producers during the
2017–2018 marketing year, which
begins on June 1, 2017. Salable
quantities and allotment percentages
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have been placed into effect each season
since the order’s inception in 1980.
Class 1 (Scotch) Spearmint Oil
As noted above, the Committee
recommended a salable quantity of
Scotch spearmint oil of 774,645 pounds
and an allotment percentage of 36
percent for the upcoming 2017–2018
marketing year. To arrive at these
recommendations, the Committee
utilized 2017–2018 sales estimates for
Scotch spearmint oil, as provided by
several of the industry handlers,
historical and current Scotch spearmint
oil production, inventory statistics, and
international market data obtained from
consultants for the spearmint oil
industry.
The trade demand estimate for Far
West Scotch spearmint oil was revised
during the 2016–2017 marketing year
from an initial estimate of 900,000
pounds to the current estimate of
950,000 pounds. Trade demand is
expected to decrease from the 950,000
pounds anticipated in the 2016–2017
marketing year to 925,000 pounds in the
2017–2018 marketing year. Industry
reports indicate that the decreased trade
demand estimate is the result of
decreased consumer demand for
spearmint-flavored products, especially
chewing gum in China and India, as
fruit flavors are becoming preferential to
consumers. In addition, better than
expected production of spearmint oil in
competing markets, most notably
Canada and the U.S. Midwest, have also
factored into the Committee’s
assessment of the market.
Production of Far West Scotch
spearmint oil declined from 1,229,258
pounds in 2015 to an estimated
1,113,346 pounds in 2016. Production
over the last three seasons has exceeded
sales, leading to a gradual build in the
salable carry-in of Scotch spearmint oil.
Scotch spearmint oil held in the reserve
pool, which was completely depleted at
the beginning of the 2014–2015
marketing year, has also been gradually
increasing over the past three years.
Carry-in represents the amount of
salable spearmint oil produced, but not
marketed, in a previous year or years
that is available for sale in the current
year under a previous year’s annual
allotment. Under volume regulation,
spearmint oil that is designated as
salable continues to be available to the
market until it is sold and may be
marketed at any time at the discretion
of the owner. Spearmint oil held in
reserve, however, is spearmint oil that
has been produced in excess of a
producer’s marketing year allotment
that can only be released into the market
under certain circumstances.
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Salable carry-in is the primary
measure of excess spearmint oil supply
under the order as it represents
overproduction in prior years that is
currently available to the market
without restriction. Spearmint oil held
in the reserve pool is a lesser indicator
of excess supply, as it is spearmint oil
that is not available to the market in the
current marketing year without an
increase in the salable quantity and
allotment percentage.
The Committee estimates that there
will be 174,507 pounds of salable carryin of Scotch spearmint oil on June 1,
2017. If correct, this figure would be up
8,739 pounds from the 165,768 pounds
carried in the previous year on June 1,
2016. The Committee estimates that
salable carry-in will decrease to 24,152
pounds at the beginning of the 2018–
2019 marketing year, if current market
conditions and projections are
maintained.
This anticipated level of carry-in
(24,152 pounds) would be below the
quantity that the Committee considers
favorable (generally 150,000 pounds).
However, the Committee believes that
this lower salable carry-in is manageable
given the strong production of
spearmint in the current marketing year
and the quantity of Scotch spearmint oil
held in the reserve pool that could be
released into the market if the industry
experiences an unexpected increase in
demand.
The Committee reported that there
was 15,937 pounds of Scotch spearmint
oil held in the reserve pool as of May
31, 2016. The Committee expects the
reserve pool to increase to 204,691
pounds by May 31, 2017. This quantity
of reserve oil should be an adequate
buffer to supply the market if necessary.
The Committee estimates the total
available supply of Scotch oil for the
2017–2018 marketing year to be 949,152
pounds (174,507 pounds of estimated
carry-in plus 774,645 pounds of
recommended salable quantity). The
2017–2018 Scotch spearmint oil salable
quantity of 774,645 pounds
recommended by the Committee
represents a decrease of 184,066 pounds
from the salable quantity established the
previous marketing year (958,711
pounds).
The Committee estimates the 2017–
2018 marketing year trade demand for
Scotch spearmint oil at 925,000 pounds.
As stated previously, the Committee
expects that there will be 174,507
pounds of available carry-in of Scotch
spearmint oil on June 1, 2017. That
carry-in, when combined with the
recommended 2017–2018 marketing
year salable quantity of 774,645 pounds,
would result in a total supply of 949,152
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pounds of Scotch spearmint oil for the
2017–2018 marketing year. This
quantity of Scotch spearmint oil is
expected to fully satisfy estimated
market demand of 925,000 pounds and
is estimated to leave 24,152 pounds as
carry-out for the 2017–2018 marketing
year to be used as carry-in for the 2018–
2019 marketing year.
The Committee’s stated intent in the
use of marketing order volume
regulation provisions for Scotch
spearmint oil is to keep adequate
supplies available to meet market needs
and maintain orderly marketing
conditions. The recommended salable
quantity of Scotch spearmint oil for the
upcoming marketing year is less than
the salable quantity established for the
previous year. Even so, the Committee
expects that the market will be fully
supplied for the 2017–2018 marketing
year.
The Committee believes that the
recommended salable quantity would
adequately meet demand, as well as
result in a reasonable carry-in for the
following year. The Committee
developed its recommendation for the
proposed Scotch spearmint oil salable
quantity and allotment percentage for
the 2017–2018 marketing year based on
the information discussed above, as well
as the computational data outlined
below.
(A) Estimated carry-in of Scotch
spearmint oil on June 1, 2017: 174,507
pounds. This figure is the difference
between the revised 2016–2017
marketing year total available supply of
1,124,507 pounds and the revised 2016–
2017 marketing year estimated trade
demand of 950,000 pounds.
(B) Estimated trade demand of Scotch
spearmint oil for the 2017–2018
marketing year: 925,000 pounds. This
figure was established at the Committee
meeting held on October 19, 2016. The
average estimated trade demand derived
from six production area producer
meetings held prior to the main meeting
on October 19, 2016, was 960,400,
which is 8,000 pounds more than the
average of trade demand estimates
submitted by handlers (952,400
pounds). Far West Scotch spearmint oil
sales have averaged 1,021,786 pounds
per year over the last three years, and
987,639 pounds over the last five years.
Given the anticipated market conditions
for the coming year, the Committee
decided it was prudent to anticipate the
lower trade demand at 925,000 pounds.
Should the initially established volume
regulation levels prove insufficient to
adequately supply the market, the
Committee has the authority to
recommend intra-seasonal increases, as
were undertaken in the 2014–2015
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marketing year and several other
previous marketing years.
(C) Salable quantity of Scotch
spearmint oil required from the 2017–
2018 marketing year production:
750,493 pounds. This figure is the
difference between the estimated 2017–
2018 marketing year trade demand
(925,000 pounds) and the estimated
carry-in on June 1, 2017 (174,507
pounds). This salable quantity
represents the minimum amount of
Scotch spearmint oil that may be
needed to satisfy estimated demand for
the coming year.
(D) Total estimated allotment base of
Scotch spearmint oil for the 2017–2018
marketing year: 2,151,792 pounds. This
figure represents a one-percent increase
over the 2016–2017 total allotment base
of 2,130,487 pounds as prescribed by
the order under § 985.53(d)(1). The onepercent increase equals 21,305 pounds
of Scotch spearmint oil. This total
estimated allotment base is generally
revised each year on June 1 due to
producer base being lost because of the
bona fide effort production provisions of
§ 985.53(e). The adjustment is usually
minimal.
(E) Computed Scotch spearmint oil
allotment percentage for the 2017–2018
marketing year: 34.9 percent. This
percentage is computed by dividing the
minimum required salable quantity
(750,493 pounds) by the total estimated
allotment base (2,151,792 pounds).
(F) Recommended Scotch spearmint
oil allotment percentage for the 2017–
2018 marketing year: 36 percent. This is
the Committee’s recommendation and is
based on the computed allotment
percentage (34.9 percent), and input
from producers and handlers at the
October 19, 2016, meeting. The
recommended 36 percent allotment
percentage reflects the Committee’s
belief that the computed percentage
(34.9 percent) may not adequately
supply the potential 2017–2018 Scotch
spearmint oil market demand.
(G) Recommended Scotch spearmint
oil salable quantity for the 2017–2018
marketing year: 774,645 pounds. This
figure is the product of the
recommended salable allotment
percentage (36 percent) and the total
estimated allotment base (2,151,792
pounds) for the 2017–2018 marketing
year.
(H) Estimated total available supply
of Scotch spearmint oil for the 2017–
2018 marketing year: 949,152 pounds.
This figure is the sum of the 2017–2018
recommended salable quantity (774,645
pounds) and the estimated carry-in on
June 1, 2017 (174,507 pounds).
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Class 3 (Native) Spearmint Oil
The Committee also recommended a
2017–2018 Native spearmint oil salable
quantity of 1,075,051 pounds and an
allotment percentage of 44 percent at
the October 19, 2016, meeting. These
figures represent a decrease of 134,495
pounds and 6 percent, respectively,
from the salable quantity and allotment
percentage established for the previous
marketing year. To formulate this
recommendation, the Committee
utilized Native spearmint oil sales
estimates for the 2017–2018 marketing
year, as provided by several of the
industry’s handlers, as well as historical
and current Native spearmint oil market
statistics.
The Committee estimates that there
will be 1,094,659 pounds of Native
spearmint oil in the reserve pool on
June 1, 2017. This figure, which is the
excess Native spearmint oil production
held in reserve by producers, is 499,305
pounds higher than the reserve pool
held by producers on June 1, 2016. This
would be the highest reserve pool level
since 2004. Reserve pool levels of
Native spearmint oil had been slowly
moving toward the level that the
Committee believes is optimal for the
industry prior to the increases
experienced in 2015 and 2016. The large
year-over-year increase in Native
spearmint oil held in reserve (84
percent) is the result of substantially
increased production and only
moderately increased industry trade
demand.
Far West Native spearmint oil
production was estimated at 1,510,936
pounds in 2015, compared to 1,694,684
pounds estimated for 2016. Although
total estimated acres of Native
spearmint production decreased by 164
acres, yield per acre has risen from
145.8 in 2015 to 166.2 pounds per acre
this year. Conversely, sales of Native
spearmint oil, which were increasing at
about a 4 percent rate from 2009 to
2014, dropped by 12 percent for the
2015–2016 marketing year.
Despite Committee statistics that
indicate a sharp drop for Far West
Native spearmint oil sales from the
previous marketing year (2015–2016),
monthly sales, to date, for the 2016–
2017 marketing year have been
moderately stronger. The Committee
expects this trend to continue, even as
imports of spearmint oil are also rising.
Canada more than doubled its
shipments of spearmint oil into the U.S.
market from 2014 to 2015, and Chinese
shipments are up 14 percent over the
same period. While it is a common
practice for buyers to mix U.S. and
foreign-produced oils to create a final
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product with a certain flavor profile, the
greatest percentage of oil in those blends
continues to be from the Far West. The
Committee and the industry expect that
practice to continue into the future.
One exception to the rising trend in
spearmint oil imports, India has
reduced shipments over the last two
years. Recent reports used by the
Committee indicate that spearmint oil
produced in India is improving in
quality, yet decreasing in acreage.
Indian spearmint oil is increasingly
regarded as an alternative to high
quality, Far West Native spearmint oil,
but production problems have limited
its importation into the U.S. market. As
a result, imports from India, while still
in demand, decreased in the past year.
However, spearmint oil from India may
return as a major threat to the Far West
Native spearmint oil industry’s
domestic market share in the future.
One of the factors considered by the
Committee when it estimated trade
demand was that sales of mint products,
both domestically and abroad, have
slowed down. This is largely the result
of slowing economies in Europe and
Asia. In addition, demand is expected to
be impacted by the purchasing patterns
of end users. Over the last several years,
end users may have been building
reserve stocks of Far West oil when
prices were low as a hedge against
future price increases. End users of
spearmint oil are expected to continue
to rely on Far West production as their
main source of high quality Native
spearmint oil, but demand may be at
lower quantities moving forward in
response to the current market factors.
However, Committee members remain
optimistic that demand will rise again
in the long term.
As such, spearmint oil handlers, who
regularly help predict trade demand for
Far West Native spearmint oil, estimate
demand to range between 1,300,000 and
1,400,000 pounds (with an average of
1,320,000 pounds) for the 2017–2018
marketing year. This estimate is the
same as the estimate for the previous
year. The Committee used the handlers’
input when it estimated 2017–2018
marketing year Native spearmint oil
trade demand to be 1,250,000 pounds.
This figure is 25,000 pounds less than
the figure used in the previous
marketing year and approximately
75,000 pounds below the 3-year average
sales figure (1,324,560 pounds).
The estimated carry-in of 189,820
pounds of Native spearmint oil on June
1, 2017, in conjunction with the
Committee recommended salable
quantity of 1,075,051 pounds, would
result in an estimated total available
supply of 1,264,871 pounds of Native
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spearmint oil during the 2017–2018
marketing year. With estimated trade
demand of 1,250,000 pounds for the
2017–2018 marketing year, the
Committee projects that 14,871 pounds
of Native spearmint oil will be carried
into the 2018–2019 marketing year, a
reduction of 174,909 pounds from the
estimated 2017–2018 marketing year
carry-in. The Committee estimates that
there will be 1,094,659 pounds of Native
spearmint oil held in the reserve pool at
the beginning of the 2017–2018
marketing year. Should the industry
experience an unexpected increase in
trade demand during the 2017–2018
marketing year, Native spearmint oil in
the reserve pool could be released to
satisfy that demand.
The Committee’s stated intent in the
use of marketing order volume
regulation provisions for Native
spearmint oil is to keep adequate
supplies available to meet market needs
while maintaining orderly marketing
conditions. With that in mind, the
Committee developed its
recommendation for the proposed
Native spearmint oil salable quantity
and allotment percentage for the 2017–
2018 marketing year based on the
information discussed above, as well as
the data outlined below.
(A) Estimated carry-in of Native
spearmint oil on June 1, 2017: 189,820
pounds. This figure is the difference
between the revised 2016–2017
marketing year total available supply of
1,430,820 pounds and the revised 2016–
2017 marketing year estimated trade
demand of 1,241,000 pounds.
(B) Estimated trade demand of Native
spearmint oil for the 2017–2018
marketing year: 1,250,000 pounds. This
estimate was established by the
Committee and is based on input from
producers at six Native spearmint oil
production area meetings held in midOctober 2016, as well as estimates
provided by handlers and other meeting
participants at the October 19, 2016,
main meeting. This figure represents a
decrease of 25,000 pounds from the
previous year’s estimate. The average
estimated trade demand for Native
spearmint oil from the six production
area grower’s meetings was 1,287,500
pounds, whereas the handlers’ estimates
ranged from 1,300,000 to 1,400,000
pounds. The average of Far West Native
spearmint oil sales over the last three
years is 1,324,560 pounds. However, the
quantity marketed over the most recent
full marketing year, 2015–2016, was
1,241,140 pounds. The Committee chose
to be conservative in the establishment
of its trade demand estimate for the
2017–2018 marketing year to avoid
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oversupplying the market in the face of
increasing production.
(C) Salable quantity of Native
spearmint oil required from the 2017–
2018 marketing year production:
1,060,180 pounds. This figure is the
difference between the estimated 2017–
2018 marketing year estimated trade
demand (1,250,000 pounds) and the
estimated carry-in on June 1, 2017
(189,820 pounds). This is the minimum
amount of Native spearmint oil that the
Committee believes would be required
to meet the anticipated 2017–2018
marketing year trade demand.
(D) Total estimated allotment base of
Native spearmint oil for the 2017–2018
marketing year: 2,443,297 pounds. This
figure represents a one-percent increase
over the 2016–2017 total allotment base
of 2,419,106 pounds as prescribed by
the order in § 985.53(d)(1). The onepercent increase equals 24,191 pounds
of Native spearmint oil. This estimate is
generally revised each year on June 1
due to producer base being lost because
of the bona fide effort production
provisions of § 985.53(e). The revision is
usually minimal.
(E) Computed Native spearmint oil
allotment percentage for the 2017–2018
marketing year: 43.4 percent. This
percentage is calculated by dividing the
required salable quantity (1,060,180
pounds) by the total estimated allotment
base (2,443,297 pounds) for the 2017–
2018 marketing year.
(F) Recommended Native spearmint
oil allotment percentage for the 2017–
2018 marketing year: 44 percent. This is
the Committee’s recommendation based
on the computed allotment percentage
(43.4 percent), the average of the
computed allotment percentage figures
from the six production area meetings
(46.7 percent), and input from
producers and handlers at the October
19, 2016, meeting. The recommended 44
percent allotment percentage is also
based on the Committee’s belief that the
computed percentage (43.4 percent) may
not adequately supply the potential
market for Native spearmint oil in the
2017–2018 marketing year.
(G) Recommended Native spearmint
oil 2017–2018 marketing year salable
quantity: 1,075,051 pounds. This figure
is the product of the recommended
allotment percentage (44 percent) and
the total estimated allotment base
(2,443,297 pounds).
(H) Estimated available supply of
Native spearmint oil for the 2017–2018
marketing year: 1,264,871 pounds. This
figure is the sum of the 2017–2018
recommended salable quantity
(1,075,051 pounds) and the estimated
carry-in on June 1, 2017 (189,820
pounds).
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Under volume regulation, the salable
quantity is the total quantity of each
class of spearmint oil that handlers may
purchase from, or handle on behalf of,
producers during a marketing year. Each
producer is allotted a share of the
salable quantity by applying the
allotment percentage to the producer’s
allotment base for the applicable class of
spearmint oil.
The Committee’s recommended
Scotch and Native spearmint oil salable
quantities and allotment percentages of
774,645 pounds and 36 percent, and
1,075,051 pounds and 44 percent,
respectively, are based on the goal of
maintaining market stability. The
Committee anticipates that this goal
would be achieved by matching the
available supply of each class of
spearmint oil to the estimated demand
of each, thus avoiding extreme
fluctuations in inventories and prices.
The salable quantities proposed in
this rule are not expected to cause a
shortage of spearmint oil supplies. Any
unanticipated or additional market
demand for spearmint oil which may
develop during the marketing year
could be satisfied by an intra-seasonal
increase in the salable quantity. The
order contains a provision in § 985.51
for intra-seasonal increases to allow the
Committee the flexibility to respond
quickly to changing market conditions.
Under volume regulation, producers
who produce more than their annual
allotments during the marketing year
may transfer such excess spearmint oil
to producers who have produced less
than their annual allotment. In addition,
on December 1 of each year, producers
that have not transferred their excess
spearmint oil to other producers must
place their excess spearmint oil
production into the reserve pool to be
released in the future in accordance
with market needs and under the
Committee’s direction.
This proposed action, if adopted,
would be similar to regulations issued
in prior seasons. The average initial
allotment percentage for the five most
recent marketing years for both Scotch
and Native spearmint oil is 52.6 percent.
In conjunction with the issuance of
this proposed rule, USDA has reviewed
the Committee’s marketing policy
statement for the 2017–2018 marketing
year. The Committee’s marketing policy
statement, a requirement whenever the
Committee recommends volume
regulation, fully meets the intent of
§§ 985.50 and 985.51 of the order.
During its discussion of potential
2017–2018 salable quantities and
allotment percentages, the Committee
considered: (1) The estimated quantity
of salable oil of each class held by
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producers and handlers; (2) the
estimated demand for each class of oil;
(3) the prospective production of each
class of oil; (4) the total of allotment
bases of each class of oil for the current
marketing year and the estimated total
of allotment bases of each class for the
ensuing marketing year; (5) the quantity
of reserve oil, by class, in storage; (6)
producer prices of oil, including prices
for each class of oil; and (7) general
market conditions for each class of oil,
including whether the estimated season
average price to producers is likely to
exceed parity. Conformity with USDA’s
‘‘Guidelines for Fruit, Vegetable, and
Specialty Crop Marketing Orders’’ has
also been reviewed and confirmed.
The establishment of the proposed
salable quantities and allotment
percentages would allow for anticipated
market needs. In determining
anticipated market needs, the
Committee considered historical sales,
as well as changes and trends in
production and demand. This rule
would also provide producers with
information on the amount of spearmint
oil that should be produced for the 2017
season in order to meet anticipated
market demand.
Initial Regulatory Flexibility Analysis
Pursuant to requirements set forth in
the Regulatory Flexibility Act (RFA) (5
U.S.C. 601–612), the Agricultural
Marketing Service (AMS) has
considered the economic impact of this
action on small entities. Accordingly,
AMS has prepared this initial regulatory
flexibility analysis.
The purpose of the RFA is to fit
regulatory actions to the scale of
businesses subject to such actions in
order that small businesses will not be
unduly or disproportionately burdened.
Marketing orders issued pursuant to the
Act, and the rules issued thereunder, are
unique in that they are brought about
through group action of essentially
small entities acting on their own
behalf.
There are eight spearmint oil handlers
subject to regulation under the order,
approximately 41 producers of Scotch
spearmint oil, and approximately 94
producers of Native spearmint oil in the
regulated production area. Small
agricultural service firms are defined by
the Small Business Administration
(SBA) as those having annual receipts of
less than $7,500,000, and small
agricultural producers are defined as
those having annual receipts of less than
$750,000 (13 CFR 121.201).
Based on the SBA’s definition of
small entities, the Committee estimates
that two of the eight handlers regulated
by the order could be considered small
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entities. Most of the handlers are large
corporations involved in the
international trading of essential oils
and the products of essential oils. In
addition, the Committee estimates that
12 of the 41 Scotch spearmint oil
producers and 31 of the 94 Native
spearmint oil producers could be
classified as small entities under the
SBA definition. Thus, a majority of
handlers and producers of Far West
spearmint oil may not be classified as
small entities.
This proposed rule would establish
the quantity of spearmint oil produced
in the Far West, by class, which
handlers may purchase from, or handle
on behalf of, producers during the
2017–2018 marketing year. The
Committee recommended this rule to
help maintain stability in the spearmint
oil market by matching supply to
estimated demand, thereby avoiding
extreme fluctuations in supplies and
prices. Establishing quantities that may
be purchased or handled during the
marketing year through volume
regulations allows producers to
coordinate their spearmint oil
production with the expected market
demand. Authority for this action is
provided in §§ 985.50, 985.51, and
985.52 of the order.
The Far West spearmint oil industry
is characterized by producers whose
farming operations generally involve
more than one commodity and whose
income from farming operations is not
exclusively dependent on the
production of spearmint oil. A typical
spearmint oil producing operation has
enough acreage for rotation such that
the total acreage required to produce the
crop is about one-third spearmint and
two-thirds rotational crops. Thus, the
typical spearmint oil producer has to
have considerably more acreage than is
planted to spearmint during any given
season. Crop rotation is an essential
cultural practice in the production of
spearmint oil for purposes of weed,
insect, and disease control. To remain
economically viable with the added
costs associated with spearmint oil
production, a majority of spearmint oil
producing farms fall into the SBA
category of large businesses.
Small spearmint oil producers
generally are not as extensively
diversified as larger ones and, as such,
are more at risk from market
fluctuations. Such small producers
generally need to market their entire
annual production of spearmint oil and
are not financially able to hold
spearmint oil for sale in future years. In
addition, small producers generally do
not have a large assortment of other
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crops to cushion seasons with poor
spearmint oil returns.
Conversely, large diversified
producers have the potential to endure
one or more seasons of poor spearmint
oil markets because income from
alternate crops could support their
operation for a period of time.
Reasonable assurance of a stable price
and market provides all producing
entities with the ability to maintain
proper cash flow and to meet annual
expenses.
Costs to producers and handlers, large
and small, resulting from this rules are
expected to be offset by the benefits
derived from a more stable market and
increased returns. The benefits of this
rule are expected to be equally available
to all producers and handlers regardless
of their size.
Instability in the spearmint oil subsector of the mint industry is much
more likely to originate on the supply
side than the demand side. Fluctuations
in yield and acreage planted from
season to season tend to be larger than
fluctuations in the amount purchased by
handlers. Historically, demand for
spearmint oil tends to change slowly
from year to year.
Demand for spearmint oil at the farm
level is derived from retail demand for
spearmint-flavored products such as
chewing gum, toothpaste, and
mouthwash. The manufacturers of these
products are by far the largest users of
spearmint oil. However, spearmint
flavoring is generally a very minor
component of the products in which it
is used, so changes in the raw product
price have little impact on the retail
prices for those goods.
In 2013, 2014, and 2015, the
Committee set salable percentages at
levels that resulted in most, if not all, of
the spearmint oil production being
made available to the market. This was
in response to the increased demand for
spearmint oil from the Far West due to
increased utilization by end users and
the reduced supply of spearmint oil
coming from other production areas,
both domestic and foreign.
Although there is still strong demand
for spearmint oil, competing areas
(mainly Canada) have experienced
better than expected production in 2015
and 2016, and will create some
marketing pressure for spearmint oil
from the Far West. In addition, the
slowing of international markets for
spearmint-flavored products has
negatively impacted the demand for
domestically produced spearmint oil.
Thus, the lower salable quantities and
allotment percentages recommended by
the Committee for the 2017–2018
marketing year are intended to be
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responsive to the changing environment
of the spearmint oil market.
In the late 1990s, the Committee
recommended higher than normal
salable quantities and allotment
percentages in hopes of gaining market
share. This approach did not work, and
in the following years, the salable
quantities and allotment percentages
were established at lower levels in order
to reduce the excess spearmint oil
production and resulting build-up of
inventory. In order to avoid a similar
scenario moving forward, the
Committee, relying heavily on the
information provided to them by
spearmint oil handlers during the
October 19, 2016, meeting, ultimately
recommended reducing the 2017–2018
marketing year salable quantities and
allotment percentages from the previous
year to better align the available supply
with market demand.
The Committee reported that recent
producer prices for spearmint oil are
$16.50 to $18.00 per pound. Average
producer prices for all types of
spearmint oil for 2013 through 2015
were $18.79, $19.21, and $18.32,
respectively. These are computed price
averages for Washington, Oregon, and
Idaho combined, based on NASS data.
Spearmint oil production tends to be
cyclical. Prior to the inception of the
marketing order in 1980, extreme
variability in producer prices was
common. For example, the season
average producer price for Washington
Native spearmint oil in 1971 was $3.00
per pound. By 1975, the producer price
had risen to $11.00 per pound, an
increase of over 260% in just four years.
Such fluctuations were not unusual in
the spearmint oil industry in the years
leading up to the promulgation of the
order. For most producers, this was an
untenable situation. Years of relatively
high spearmint oil production, with
demand remaining relatively stable, led
to periods in which large producer
stocks of unsold spearmint oil
depressed producer prices. Shortages
and high prices followed in subsequent
years, as producers responded to price
signals by cutting back production.
After establishment of the order, the
supply and price variability in the
spearmint oil market moderated. During
the 25-year period from 1982 to 2006,
the season average producer price for
Native spearmint oil ranged from a high
of $11.10 to a low of $9.00 per pound,
or a difference of 23 percent. No change
in producer price from one year to the
next during this period was more than
$1.00 per pound. This is a remarkable
record of price stability. From 2006 to
2008, when production contracts tied to
input costs were prevalent in the
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industry, the annual average Native
producer price jumped by $3.80 per
pound. During this time period, prices
for fuel, fertilizer, and labor increased
dramatically, resulting in higher
contracted producer prices and a
concurrent increase in the overall
season average producer price for the
industry.
The significant variability of the
spearmint oil market is illustrated by
the fact that the coefficient of variation,
or CV (a standard measure of
variability), of Far West spearmint oil
producer prices for the period 1980–
2015 (when the marketing order was in
effect) is 24 percent, compared to 36
percent for the decade prior to the
promulgation of the order (1970–79) and
49 percent for the prior 20-year period
(1960–79). The coefficient of variation,
as presented herein, was calculated by
USDA from information provided by the
Committee and NASS. This analysis
provides an indication of the price
stabilizing impact of the marketing
order as higher CV values correspond to
greater variability.
Based on NASS data, production in
the shortest marketing year since the
establishment of the order was about 47
percent of the 36-year average (1.96
million pounds from 1980 through
2015). The largest crop was
approximately 157 percent of the 36year average. A key consequence is that,
in years of oversupply and low prices,
the season average producer price of
spearmint oil is below the average cost
of production (as measured by the
Washington State University
Cooperative Extension Service).
The wide fluctuations in supply and
prices that result from the cyclical
nature of the spearmint oil industry,
which were even more pronounced
before the creation of the order, can
create liquidity problems for some
producers. The order was designed to
reduce the price impacts of the cyclical
swings in production. However,
producers have been less able to
weather these cycles in recent years
because of increases to production costs.
While prices for spearmint oil have been
relatively steady, the cost of production
has increased to the extent that plans to
plant spearmint may be postponed or
vacated indefinitely. Producers may also
be enticed by the prices of alternative
crops and their lower cost of
production.
In an effort to stabilize prices, the
spearmint oil industry uses the volume
regulation mechanisms authorized
under the order. This authority allows
the Committee to recommend a salable
quantity and allotment percentage for
each class of oil for the upcoming
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marketing year. The salable quantity for
each class of oil is the total volume of
spearmint oil produced in a marketing
year that producers may sell during that
same marketing year. The allotment
percentage for each class of spearmint
oil is derived by dividing the salable
quantity by the total allotment base.
Each producer is then issued an
annual allotment certificate, in pounds,
for the applicable class of oil. This is
calculated by multiplying the
producer’s allotment base by the
applicable allotment percentage. This is
the amount of oil of each applicable
class that the producer can market
under the order.
By December 1 of each year, the
Committee identifies any oil that
individual producers have produced
above the volume specified on annual
allotment certificates. Prior to December
1, such excess oil can be transferred to
another producer to fill a deficiency in
that producer’s annual allotment as
provided for in § 985.156(a).
The order allows limited quantities of
excess oil to be sold by one producer to
another producer to fill production
deficiencies during a marketing year. A
deficiency occurs when on-farm
production is less than a producer’s
annual allotment. When a producer has
a deficiency, the producer may utilize
their own reserve pool oil to fill that
deficiency, or excess production
(production of spearmint oil in excess of
the producer’s annual allotment) from
another producer may also be secured to
fill the deficiency. As mentioned
previously, all of these provisions need
to be exercised prior to December 1 of
each year.
Excess spearmint oil not transferred to
another producer to fill a deficiency is
held in storage and, on December 1, is
added to the reserve pool administered
by the Committee pursuant to § 985.157.
The Committee maintains the reserve
pool for each class of spearmint oil.
Once spearmint oil is placed in the
reserve pool, such spearmint oil cannot
enter the market during that marketing
year unless USDA approves a
Committee recommendation to increase
the salable quantity and allotment
percentage for a certain class of oil,
subsequently making a portion of the
reserve pool of that class of spearmint
oil available to the market. Without an
increase in the salable quantity and
allotment percentage, spearmint oil
placed in the reserve pool cannot be
removed from the reserve pool and
marketed in the marketing year in
which it is initially placed in the reserve
pool. However, producers may dispose
of reserve spearmint oil from their own
production, and held in their own
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account, under certain provisions in
subsequent marketing years under the
supervision of the Committee.
While the Committee administers the
reserve pool of spearmint oil, ownership
and physical possession of spearmint oil
held in reserve does not transfer to the
Committee. The Committee accounts
for, and controls the release of, reserve
spearmint oil but does not take title to,
or dispose of, any such oil of its own
accord or for its own benefit. Producers,
at their sole discretion, make the
decisions regarding the disposition of
oil held in the reserve pool under any
one of three possible mechanisms.
Section 985.57(b) details the
conditions under which a producer may
dispose of their reserve pool spearmint
oil. First, producers may utilize reserve
oil from their own production to fill
intra-seasonal increases in the allotment
percentage and salable quantity.
Second, producers may fill an ensuing
year’s annual allotment from spearmint
oil held in the reserve pool. Lastly,
producers may exchange salable oil of
the same class and quantity of reserve
oil from their own production to rotate
stock, so long as the Committee is
properly notified and the oil is properly
identified.
In any given year, the total available
supply of spearmint oil is composed of
current production plus salable
carryover stocks from the previous crop.
The Committee seeks to maintain
market stability by balancing supply
and demand, and to close the marketing
year with an appropriate level of salable
spearmint oil to carry over into the
subsequent marketing year. If the
industry has production in excess of the
salable quantity, the reserve pool
absorbs the surplus quantity of
spearmint oil, thereby withholding it
from the market, unless such oil is
needed to fill unanticipated intraseasonal increases in demand. In this
way, excess spearmint oil is not allowed
to oversupply the market and create
price instability. Likewise, if production
is insufficient in any given year to fully
supply the market with spearmint oil,
the reserve pool oil can be released to
satisfy the market demand until
production can be increased.
Therefore, under its provisions, the
order may attempt to stabilize prices by
(1) regulating supply and establishing
reserves in high production years, thus
minimizing the price-depressing effect
that excess producer stocks have on
unsold spearmint oil and (2) ensuring
that stocks are available in short supply
years when prices would otherwise
increase dramatically. Reserve pool
stocks, which increase in high
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production years, are drawn down in
years where the crop is short.
An econometric model generated by
USDA was used to assess the impact
that volume regulation has on the prices
producers receive for their commodity.
Without volume regulation, spearmint
oil markets would likely be oversupplied. This could result in low
producer prices and a large volume of
oil stored and carried over to the next
crop year. The model estimates how
much lower producer prices would
likely be in the absence of volume
regulation.
The Committee estimated trade
demand for the 2017–2018 marketing
year for both classes of oil at 2,175,000
pounds, and that the expected
combined salable carry-in will be
364,327 pounds. This results in a
combined required salable quantity of
1,810,673 pounds (2,175,000 pounds of
total trade demand less 364,327 pounds
of total carry-in) for the 2017–2018
marketing year. Under volume
regulation, total sales of spearmint oil
by producers for the 2017–2018
marketing year would be held to
2,214,023 pounds (the recommended
salable quantity for both classes of
spearmint oil of 1,849,696 pounds plus
364,327 pounds of carry-in). This total
available supply of 2,214,023 pounds
should be more than adequate to supply
the 2,175,000 pounds of anticipated
total trade demand for spearmint oil. In
addition, as of June 1, 2016, the total
reserve pool for both classes of
spearmint oil stood at 611,331 pounds.
Furthermore, that quantity is expected
to rise over the course of the 2016–2017
marketing year. Should trade demand
increase unexpectedly during the 2017–
2018 marketing year, reserve pool
spearmint oil could be released into the
market to supply that increase in
demand.
The recommended allotment
percentages, upon which 2017–2018
producer allotments are based, are 36
percent for Scotch spearmint oil and 44
percent for Native spearmint oil.
Without volume regulation, producers
would not be held to these allotment
levels, and could produce and sell an
unrestricted quantity of spearmint oil.
The USDA econometric model
estimated that the season average
producer price per pound (from both
classes of spearmint oil) would decline
about $2.45 per pound as a result of the
higher quantities of spearmint oil that
would be produced and marketed
without volume regulation. The surplus
situation for the spearmint oil market
that would exist without volume
regulation in 2017–2018 also would
likely dampen prospects for improved
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producer prices in future years because
of the buildup in stocks.
The use of volume regulation allows
the industry to fully supply spearmint
oil markets while avoiding the negative
consequences of over-supplying these
markets. The use of volume regulation
is believed to have little or no effect on
consumer prices of products containing
spearmint oil and would not result in
fewer retail sales of such products.
The Committee discussed alternatives
to the recommendations contained in
this rule for both classes of spearmint
oil. The Committee discussed and
rejected the idea of not regulating any
volume for both classes of spearmint oil
because of the severe price-depressing
effects that would likely occur without
volume regulation. The alternative to
establish salable quantities and
allotment percentages at the 2016–2017
marketing year’s levels was discussed,
but not put to any motion, for both
classes of oil. The Committee also
discussed and considered salable
quantities and allotment percentages
that were above and below the levels
that were ultimately recommended for
Scotch spearmint oil. Ultimately, the
action taken by the Committee was to
decrease the salable quantities and
allotment percentages for both Class 1
and Class 3 spearmint oil from the
current 2016–2017 marketing year
levels.
As noted earlier, the Committee’s
recommendation to establish salable
quantities and allotment percentages for
both classes of spearmint oil was made
after careful consideration of all
available information including: (1) The
estimated quantity of salable oil of each
class held by producers and handlers;
(2) the estimated demand for each class
of oil; (3) the prospective production of
each class of oil; (4) the total of
allotment bases of each class of oil for
the current marketing year and the
estimated total of allotment bases of
each class for the ensuing marketing
year; (5) the quantity of reserve oil, by
class, in storage; (6) producer prices of
oil, including prices for each class of oil;
and (7) general market conditions for
each class of oil, including whether the
estimated season average price to
producers is likely to exceed parity.
Based on its review, the Committee
believes that the salable quantities and
allotment percentages recommended
would achieve the objectives sought.
The Committee also believes that,
should there be no volume regulation in
effect for the upcoming marketing year,
the Far West spearmint oil industry
would return to the pronounced cyclical
price patterns that occurred prior to the
promulgation of the order. As
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previously stated, annual salable
quantities and allotment percentages
have been issued for both classes of
spearmint oil since the order’s
inception. The salable quantities and
allotment percentages proposed herein
are expected to facilitate the goal of
maintaining orderly marketing
conditions for Far West spearmint oil
for the 2017–2018 and future marketing
years.
In accordance with the Paperwork
Reduction Act of 1995 (44 U.S.C.
Chapter 35), the order’s information
collection requirements have been
previously approved by the Office of
Management and Budget (OMB) and
assigned OMB No. 0581–0178, Specialty
Crops Program. No changes are
necessary in those requirements as a
result of this action. Should any changes
become necessary, they would be
submitted to OMB for approval.
This proposed rule would establish
the salable quantities and allotment
percentages for Class 1 (Scotch)
spearmint oil and Class 3 (Native)
spearmint oil produced in the Far West
during the 2017–2018 marketing year.
Accordingly, this action would not
impose any additional reporting or
recordkeeping requirements on either
small or large spearmint oil producers
or handlers. As with all Federal
marketing order programs, reports and
forms are periodically reviewed to
reduce information requirements and
duplication by industry and public
sector agencies.
AMS is committed to complying with
the E-Government Act, to promote the
use of the internet and other
information technologies to provide
increased opportunities for citizen
access to Government information and
services, and for other purposes.
USDA has not identified any relevant
Federal rules that duplicate, overlap, or
conflict with this proposed rule.
In addition, the Committee’s meeting
was widely publicized throughout the
spearmint oil industry and all interested
persons were invited to attend the
meeting and participate in Committee
deliberations on all issues. Like all
Committee meetings, the October 19,
2016, meeting was a public meeting and
all entities, both large and small, were
able to express views on this issue.
Finally, interested persons are invited to
submit comments on this proposed rule,
including the regulatory and
informational impacts of this action on
small businesses.
A small business guide on complying
with fruit, vegetable, and specialty crop
marketing agreements and orders may
be viewed at: https://www.ams.usda.gov/
rules-regulations/moa/small-businesses.
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Any questions about the compliance
guide should be sent to Richard Lower
at the previously mentioned address in
the FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT
section.
A 30-day comment period is provided
to allow interested persons to respond
to this proposal. Thirty days is deemed
appropriate because handlers are aware
of this action, which was recommended
by the committee at a public meeting. In
addition, this proposed rule would need
to be in place as soon as possible since
producers will begin planting spearmint
root stock as early as February, 2017 and
need adequate time to decide which
class and how much spearmint to grow.
All written comments timely received
will be considered before a final
determination is made on this matter.
List of Subjects in 7 CFR Part 985
Marketing agreements, Oils and fats,
Reporting and recordkeeping
requirements, Spearmint oil.
For the reasons set forth in the
preamble, 7 CFR part 985 is proposed to
be amended as follows:
PART 985—MARKETING ORDER
REGULATING THE HANDLING OF
SPEARMINT OIL PRODUCED IN THE
FAR WEST
1. The authority citation for 7 CFR
part 985 continues to read as follows:
■
Authority: 7 U.S.C. 601–674.
2. A new § 985.236 is added to read
as follows:
■
§ 985.236 Salable quantities and allotment
percentages—2017–2018 marketing year.
The salable quantity and allotment
percentage for each class of spearmint
oil during the marketing year beginning
on June 1, 2017, shall be as follows:
(a) Class 1 (Scotch) oil—a salable
quantity of 774,645 pounds and an
allotment percentage of 36 percent.
(b) Class 3 (Native) oil—a salable
quantity of 1,075,051 pounds and an
allotment percentage of 44 percent.
Dated: March 27, 2017.
Bruce Summers,
Acting Administrator, Agricultural Marketing
Service.
[FR Doc. 2017–06335 Filed 3–30–17; 8:45 am]
BILLING CODE 3410–02–P
E:\FR\FM\31MRP1.SGM
31MRP1
Agencies
[Federal Register Volume 82, Number 61 (Friday, March 31, 2017)]
[Proposed Rules]
[Pages 16001-16008]
From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office [www.gpo.gov]
[FR Doc No: 2017-06335]
========================================================================
Proposed Rules
Federal Register
________________________________________________________________________
This section of the FEDERAL REGISTER contains notices to the public of
the proposed issuance of rules and regulations. The purpose of these
notices is to give interested persons an opportunity to participate in
the rule making prior to the adoption of the final rules.
========================================================================
Federal Register / Vol. 82, No. 61 / Friday, March 31, 2017 /
Proposed Rules
[[Page 16001]]
DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
Agricultural Marketing Service
7 CFR Part 985
[Doc. No. AMS-SC-16-0107; SC17-985-1 PR]
Marketing Order Regulating the Handling of Spearmint Oil Produced
in the Far West; Salable Quantities and Allotment Percentages for the
2017-2018 Marketing Year
AGENCY: Agricultural Marketing Service, USDA.
ACTION: Proposed rule.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
SUMMARY: This proposed rule would implement a recommendation from the
Far West Spearmint Oil Administrative Committee (Committee) to
establish the quantity of spearmint oil produced in the Far West, by
class, that handlers may purchase from, or handle on behalf of,
producers during the 2017-2018 marketing year, which begins on June 1,
2017. The Far West production area includes the states of Washington,
Idaho, Oregon, and designated parts of Nevada and Utah. The Committee
locally administers the marketing order and is comprised of spearmint
oil producers operating within the area of production, and a public
member. This action would establish salable quantities and allotment
percentages for Class 1 (Scotch) spearmint oil of 774,645 pounds and 36
percent, respectively, and for Class 3 (Native) spearmint oil of
1,075,051 pounds and 44 percent, respectively. The Committee
recommended these salable quantities and allotment percentages to help
maintain stability in the spearmint oil market.
DATES: Comments must be received by May 1, 2017.
ADDRESSES: Interested persons are invited to submit written comments
concerning this proposal. Comments must be sent to the Docket Clerk,
Marketing Order and Agreement Division, Specialty Crops Program, AMS,
USDA, 1400 Independence Avenue SW., STOP 0237, Washington, DC 20250-
0237; Fax: (202) 720-8938; or Internet: https://www.regulations.gov. All
comments should reference the document number and the date and page
number of this issue of the Federal Register and will be made available
for public inspection in the Office of the Docket Clerk during regular
business hours, or can be viewed at: https://www.regulations.gov. All
comments submitted in response to this proposal will be included in the
record and will be made available to the public. Please be advised that
the identity of the individuals or entities submitting the comments
will be made public on the internet at the address provided above.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Dale Novotny, Marketing Specialist, or
Gary Olson, Regional Director, Northwest Marketing Field Office,
Marketing Order and Agreement Division, Specialty Crops Program, AMS,
USDA; Telephone: (503) 326-2724, Fax: (503) 326-7440, or Email:
DaleJ.Novotny@ams.usda.gov or GaryD.Olson@ams.usda.gov.
Small businesses may request information on complying with this
regulation by contacting Richard Lower, Marketing Order and Agreement
Division, Specialty Crops Program, AMS, USDA, 1400 Independence Avenue
SW., STOP 0237, Washington, DC 20250-0237; Telephone: (202) 720-2491,
Fax: (202) 720-8938, or Email: Richard.Lower@ams.usda.gov.
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: This proposal is issued under Marketing
Order No. 985 (7 CFR part 985), as amended, regulating the handling of
spearmint oil produced in the Far West (Washington, Idaho, Oregon, and
designated parts of Nevada and Utah), hereinafter referred to as the
``order.'' The order is effective under the Agricultural Marketing
Agreement Act of 1937, as amended (7 U.S.C. 601-674), hereinafter
referred to as the ``Act.''
The Department of Agriculture (USDA) is issuing this proposed rule
in conformance with Executive Orders 12866, 13563, and 13175.
This proposal has been reviewed under Executive Order 12988, Civil
Justice Reform. This proposed rule is not intended to have retroactive
effect. Under the order now in effect, salable quantities and allotment
percentages may be established for classes of spearmint oil produced in
the Far West. This proposed rule would establish the quantity of
spearmint oil produced in the Far West, by class, which handlers may
purchase from, or handle on behalf of, producers during the 2017-2018
marketing year, which begins on June 1, 2017.
The Act provides that administrative proceedings must be exhausted
before parties may file suit in court. Under section 608c(15)(A) of the
Act, any handler subject to an order may file with USDA a petition
stating that the order, any provision of the order, or any obligation
imposed in connection with the order is not in accordance with law and
request a modification of the order or to be exempted therefrom. A
handler is afforded the opportunity for a hearing on the petition.
After the hearing, USDA would rule on the petition. The Act provides
that the district court of the United States in any district in which
the handler is an inhabitant, or has his or her principal place of
business, has jurisdiction to review USDA's ruling on the petition,
provided an action is filed not later than 20 days after the date of
the entry of the ruling.
The Committee meets annually in the fall to adopt a marketing
policy for the ensuing marketing year or years. In determining such
marketing policy, the Committee considers a number of factors,
including, but not limited to, the current and projected supply,
estimated future demand, production costs, and producer prices for all
classes of spearmint oil. Input from spearmint oil handlers and
producers regarding prospective marketing conditions for the upcoming
year is considered as well.
If the Committee's marketing policy considerations indicate a need
for regulating the quantity of any or all classes of spearmint oil
marketed, the Committee subsequently recommends to USDA the
establishment of a salable quantity and allotment percentage for such
class or classes of oil in the forthcoming marketing year.
Recommendations for volume regulation are intended to ensure that
market requirements for Far West spearmint oil are satisfied and
orderly marketing conditions are maintained.
The salable quantity represents the total amount of each class of
spearmint oil that handlers may purchase from, or handle on behalf of,
producers during the marketing year. The allotment
[[Page 16002]]
percentage is the percentage used to calculate each producer's prorated
share of the salable quantity. It is derived by dividing the salable
quantity for each class of spearmint oil by the total of all producers'
allotment bases for the same class of oil. Each producer's annual
allotment of salable spearmint oil is calculated by multiplying their
respective total allotment base by the allotment percentage for each
class of spearmint oil. A producer's allotment base is their quantified
share of the spearmint oil market based on a statistical representation
of past spearmint oil production, with accommodation for reasonable,
normal adjustments to such base as prescribed by the Committee and
approved by USDA.
Salable quantities and allotment percentages are established at
levels intended to fulfill market requirements and to maintain orderly
marketing conditions. Committee recommendations for volume regulation
are made well in advance of the period in which the regulations are to
be effective, thereby allowing producers the chance to adjust their
production decisions accordingly.
Pursuant to authority in Sec. Sec. 985.50, 985.51, and 985.52 of
the order, the full eight-member Committee met on October 19, 2016, and
recommended salable quantities and allotment percentages for both
classes of oil for the 2017-2018 marketing year. By a vote of 6-2, the
Committee recommended the establishment of a salable quantity and
allotment percentage for Scotch spearmint oil of 774,645 pounds and 36
percent, respectively. The two Committee members that voted in
opposition to the recommendation both supported volume regulation, but
at higher levels than were proposed. They felt that a nearly 20 percent
year-over-year reduction in the salable quantity and allotment
percentage for Scotch spearmint oil was too severe.
For Native spearmint oil, with a unanimous vote (7-0, with the
public member abstaining), the Committee recommended the establishment
of a salable quantity and allotment percentage of 1,075,051 pounds and
44 percent, respectively. Pursuant to Sec. 985.29(a), seven members of
the Committee constitute a quorum, and six concurring votes are
required to pass a motion.
This action would set the amount of Scotch and Native spearmint oil
that handlers may purchase from, or handle on behalf of, producers
during the 2017-2018 marketing year, which begins on June 1, 2017.
Salable quantities and allotment percentages have been placed into
effect each season since the order's inception in 1980.
Class 1 (Scotch) Spearmint Oil
As noted above, the Committee recommended a salable quantity of
Scotch spearmint oil of 774,645 pounds and an allotment percentage of
36 percent for the upcoming 2017-2018 marketing year. To arrive at
these recommendations, the Committee utilized 2017-2018 sales estimates
for Scotch spearmint oil, as provided by several of the industry
handlers, historical and current Scotch spearmint oil production,
inventory statistics, and international market data obtained from
consultants for the spearmint oil industry.
The trade demand estimate for Far West Scotch spearmint oil was
revised during the 2016-2017 marketing year from an initial estimate of
900,000 pounds to the current estimate of 950,000 pounds. Trade demand
is expected to decrease from the 950,000 pounds anticipated in the
2016-2017 marketing year to 925,000 pounds in the 2017-2018 marketing
year. Industry reports indicate that the decreased trade demand
estimate is the result of decreased consumer demand for spearmint-
flavored products, especially chewing gum in China and India, as fruit
flavors are becoming preferential to consumers. In addition, better
than expected production of spearmint oil in competing markets, most
notably Canada and the U.S. Midwest, have also factored into the
Committee's assessment of the market.
Production of Far West Scotch spearmint oil declined from 1,229,258
pounds in 2015 to an estimated 1,113,346 pounds in 2016. Production
over the last three seasons has exceeded sales, leading to a gradual
build in the salable carry-in of Scotch spearmint oil. Scotch spearmint
oil held in the reserve pool, which was completely depleted at the
beginning of the 2014-2015 marketing year, has also been gradually
increasing over the past three years.
Carry-in represents the amount of salable spearmint oil produced,
but not marketed, in a previous year or years that is available for
sale in the current year under a previous year's annual allotment.
Under volume regulation, spearmint oil that is designated as salable
continues to be available to the market until it is sold and may be
marketed at any time at the discretion of the owner. Spearmint oil held
in reserve, however, is spearmint oil that has been produced in excess
of a producer's marketing year allotment that can only be released into
the market under certain circumstances.
Salable carry-in is the primary measure of excess spearmint oil
supply under the order as it represents overproduction in prior years
that is currently available to the market without restriction.
Spearmint oil held in the reserve pool is a lesser indicator of excess
supply, as it is spearmint oil that is not available to the market in
the current marketing year without an increase in the salable quantity
and allotment percentage.
The Committee estimates that there will be 174,507 pounds of
salable carry-in of Scotch spearmint oil on June 1, 2017. If correct,
this figure would be up 8,739 pounds from the 165,768 pounds carried in
the previous year on June 1, 2016. The Committee estimates that salable
carry-in will decrease to 24,152 pounds at the beginning of the 2018-
2019 marketing year, if current market conditions and projections are
maintained.
This anticipated level of carry-in (24,152 pounds) would be below
the quantity that the Committee considers favorable (generally 150,000
pounds). However, the Committee believes that this lower salable carry-
in is manageable given the strong production of spearmint in the
current marketing year and the quantity of Scotch spearmint oil held in
the reserve pool that could be released into the market if the industry
experiences an unexpected increase in demand.
The Committee reported that there was 15,937 pounds of Scotch
spearmint oil held in the reserve pool as of May 31, 2016. The
Committee expects the reserve pool to increase to 204,691 pounds by May
31, 2017. This quantity of reserve oil should be an adequate buffer to
supply the market if necessary.
The Committee estimates the total available supply of Scotch oil
for the 2017-2018 marketing year to be 949,152 pounds (174,507 pounds
of estimated carry-in plus 774,645 pounds of recommended salable
quantity). The 2017-2018 Scotch spearmint oil salable quantity of
774,645 pounds recommended by the Committee represents a decrease of
184,066 pounds from the salable quantity established the previous
marketing year (958,711 pounds).
The Committee estimates the 2017-2018 marketing year trade demand
for Scotch spearmint oil at 925,000 pounds. As stated previously, the
Committee expects that there will be 174,507 pounds of available carry-
in of Scotch spearmint oil on June 1, 2017. That carry-in, when
combined with the recommended 2017-2018 marketing year salable quantity
of 774,645 pounds, would result in a total supply of 949,152
[[Page 16003]]
pounds of Scotch spearmint oil for the 2017-2018 marketing year. This
quantity of Scotch spearmint oil is expected to fully satisfy estimated
market demand of 925,000 pounds and is estimated to leave 24,152 pounds
as carry-out for the 2017-2018 marketing year to be used as carry-in
for the 2018-2019 marketing year.
The Committee's stated intent in the use of marketing order volume
regulation provisions for Scotch spearmint oil is to keep adequate
supplies available to meet market needs and maintain orderly marketing
conditions. The recommended salable quantity of Scotch spearmint oil
for the upcoming marketing year is less than the salable quantity
established for the previous year. Even so, the Committee expects that
the market will be fully supplied for the 2017-2018 marketing year.
The Committee believes that the recommended salable quantity would
adequately meet demand, as well as result in a reasonable carry-in for
the following year. The Committee developed its recommendation for the
proposed Scotch spearmint oil salable quantity and allotment percentage
for the 2017-2018 marketing year based on the information discussed
above, as well as the computational data outlined below.
(A) Estimated carry-in of Scotch spearmint oil on June 1, 2017:
174,507 pounds. This figure is the difference between the revised 2016-
2017 marketing year total available supply of 1,124,507 pounds and the
revised 2016-2017 marketing year estimated trade demand of 950,000
pounds.
(B) Estimated trade demand of Scotch spearmint oil for the 2017-
2018 marketing year: 925,000 pounds. This figure was established at the
Committee meeting held on October 19, 2016. The average estimated trade
demand derived from six production area producer meetings held prior to
the main meeting on October 19, 2016, was 960,400, which is 8,000
pounds more than the average of trade demand estimates submitted by
handlers (952,400 pounds). Far West Scotch spearmint oil sales have
averaged 1,021,786 pounds per year over the last three years, and
987,639 pounds over the last five years. Given the anticipated market
conditions for the coming year, the Committee decided it was prudent to
anticipate the lower trade demand at 925,000 pounds. Should the
initially established volume regulation levels prove insufficient to
adequately supply the market, the Committee has the authority to
recommend intra-seasonal increases, as were undertaken in the 2014-2015
marketing year and several other previous marketing years.
(C) Salable quantity of Scotch spearmint oil required from the
2017-2018 marketing year production: 750,493 pounds. This figure is the
difference between the estimated 2017-2018 marketing year trade demand
(925,000 pounds) and the estimated carry-in on June 1, 2017 (174,507
pounds). This salable quantity represents the minimum amount of Scotch
spearmint oil that may be needed to satisfy estimated demand for the
coming year.
(D) Total estimated allotment base of Scotch spearmint oil for the
2017-2018 marketing year: 2,151,792 pounds. This figure represents a
one-percent increase over the 2016-2017 total allotment base of
2,130,487 pounds as prescribed by the order under Sec. 985.53(d)(1).
The one-percent increase equals 21,305 pounds of Scotch spearmint oil.
This total estimated allotment base is generally revised each year on
June 1 due to producer base being lost because of the bona fide effort
production provisions of Sec. 985.53(e). The adjustment is usually
minimal.
(E) Computed Scotch spearmint oil allotment percentage for the
2017-2018 marketing year: 34.9 percent. This percentage is computed by
dividing the minimum required salable quantity (750,493 pounds) by the
total estimated allotment base (2,151,792 pounds).
(F) Recommended Scotch spearmint oil allotment percentage for the
2017-2018 marketing year: 36 percent. This is the Committee's
recommendation and is based on the computed allotment percentage (34.9
percent), and input from producers and handlers at the October 19,
2016, meeting. The recommended 36 percent allotment percentage reflects
the Committee's belief that the computed percentage (34.9 percent) may
not adequately supply the potential 2017-2018 Scotch spearmint oil
market demand.
(G) Recommended Scotch spearmint oil salable quantity for the 2017-
2018 marketing year: 774,645 pounds. This figure is the product of the
recommended salable allotment percentage (36 percent) and the total
estimated allotment base (2,151,792 pounds) for the 2017-2018 marketing
year.
(H) Estimated total available supply of Scotch spearmint oil for
the 2017-2018 marketing year: 949,152 pounds. This figure is the sum of
the 2017-2018 recommended salable quantity (774,645 pounds) and the
estimated carry-in on June 1, 2017 (174,507 pounds).
Class 3 (Native) Spearmint Oil
The Committee also recommended a 2017-2018 Native spearmint oil
salable quantity of 1,075,051 pounds and an allotment percentage of 44
percent at the October 19, 2016, meeting. These figures represent a
decrease of 134,495 pounds and 6 percent, respectively, from the
salable quantity and allotment percentage established for the previous
marketing year. To formulate this recommendation, the Committee
utilized Native spearmint oil sales estimates for the 2017-2018
marketing year, as provided by several of the industry's handlers, as
well as historical and current Native spearmint oil market statistics.
The Committee estimates that there will be 1,094,659 pounds of
Native spearmint oil in the reserve pool on June 1, 2017. This figure,
which is the excess Native spearmint oil production held in reserve by
producers, is 499,305 pounds higher than the reserve pool held by
producers on June 1, 2016. This would be the highest reserve pool level
since 2004. Reserve pool levels of Native spearmint oil had been slowly
moving toward the level that the Committee believes is optimal for the
industry prior to the increases experienced in 2015 and 2016. The large
year-over-year increase in Native spearmint oil held in reserve (84
percent) is the result of substantially increased production and only
moderately increased industry trade demand.
Far West Native spearmint oil production was estimated at 1,510,936
pounds in 2015, compared to 1,694,684 pounds estimated for 2016.
Although total estimated acres of Native spearmint production decreased
by 164 acres, yield per acre has risen from 145.8 in 2015 to 166.2
pounds per acre this year. Conversely, sales of Native spearmint oil,
which were increasing at about a 4 percent rate from 2009 to 2014,
dropped by 12 percent for the 2015-2016 marketing year.
Despite Committee statistics that indicate a sharp drop for Far
West Native spearmint oil sales from the previous marketing year (2015-
2016), monthly sales, to date, for the 2016-2017 marketing year have
been moderately stronger. The Committee expects this trend to continue,
even as imports of spearmint oil are also rising. Canada more than
doubled its shipments of spearmint oil into the U.S. market from 2014
to 2015, and Chinese shipments are up 14 percent over the same period.
While it is a common practice for buyers to mix U.S. and foreign-
produced oils to create a final
[[Page 16004]]
product with a certain flavor profile, the greatest percentage of oil
in those blends continues to be from the Far West. The Committee and
the industry expect that practice to continue into the future.
One exception to the rising trend in spearmint oil imports, India
has reduced shipments over the last two years. Recent reports used by
the Committee indicate that spearmint oil produced in India is
improving in quality, yet decreasing in acreage. Indian spearmint oil
is increasingly regarded as an alternative to high quality, Far West
Native spearmint oil, but production problems have limited its
importation into the U.S. market. As a result, imports from India,
while still in demand, decreased in the past year. However, spearmint
oil from India may return as a major threat to the Far West Native
spearmint oil industry's domestic market share in the future.
One of the factors considered by the Committee when it estimated
trade demand was that sales of mint products, both domestically and
abroad, have slowed down. This is largely the result of slowing
economies in Europe and Asia. In addition, demand is expected to be
impacted by the purchasing patterns of end users. Over the last several
years, end users may have been building reserve stocks of Far West oil
when prices were low as a hedge against future price increases. End
users of spearmint oil are expected to continue to rely on Far West
production as their main source of high quality Native spearmint oil,
but demand may be at lower quantities moving forward in response to the
current market factors. However, Committee members remain optimistic
that demand will rise again in the long term.
As such, spearmint oil handlers, who regularly help predict trade
demand for Far West Native spearmint oil, estimate demand to range
between 1,300,000 and 1,400,000 pounds (with an average of 1,320,000
pounds) for the 2017-2018 marketing year. This estimate is the same as
the estimate for the previous year. The Committee used the handlers'
input when it estimated 2017-2018 marketing year Native spearmint oil
trade demand to be 1,250,000 pounds. This figure is 25,000 pounds less
than the figure used in the previous marketing year and approximately
75,000 pounds below the 3-year average sales figure (1,324,560 pounds).
The estimated carry-in of 189,820 pounds of Native spearmint oil on
June 1, 2017, in conjunction with the Committee recommended salable
quantity of 1,075,051 pounds, would result in an estimated total
available supply of 1,264,871 pounds of Native spearmint oil during the
2017-2018 marketing year. With estimated trade demand of 1,250,000
pounds for the 2017-2018 marketing year, the Committee projects that
14,871 pounds of Native spearmint oil will be carried into the 2018-
2019 marketing year, a reduction of 174,909 pounds from the estimated
2017-2018 marketing year carry-in. The Committee estimates that there
will be 1,094,659 pounds of Native spearmint oil held in the reserve
pool at the beginning of the 2017-2018 marketing year. Should the
industry experience an unexpected increase in trade demand during the
2017-2018 marketing year, Native spearmint oil in the reserve pool
could be released to satisfy that demand.
The Committee's stated intent in the use of marketing order volume
regulation provisions for Native spearmint oil is to keep adequate
supplies available to meet market needs while maintaining orderly
marketing conditions. With that in mind, the Committee developed its
recommendation for the proposed Native spearmint oil salable quantity
and allotment percentage for the 2017-2018 marketing year based on the
information discussed above, as well as the data outlined below.
(A) Estimated carry-in of Native spearmint oil on June 1, 2017:
189,820 pounds. This figure is the difference between the revised 2016-
2017 marketing year total available supply of 1,430,820 pounds and the
revised 2016-2017 marketing year estimated trade demand of 1,241,000
pounds.
(B) Estimated trade demand of Native spearmint oil for the 2017-
2018 marketing year: 1,250,000 pounds. This estimate was established by
the Committee and is based on input from producers at six Native
spearmint oil production area meetings held in mid-October 2016, as
well as estimates provided by handlers and other meeting participants
at the October 19, 2016, main meeting. This figure represents a
decrease of 25,000 pounds from the previous year's estimate. The
average estimated trade demand for Native spearmint oil from the six
production area grower's meetings was 1,287,500 pounds, whereas the
handlers' estimates ranged from 1,300,000 to 1,400,000 pounds. The
average of Far West Native spearmint oil sales over the last three
years is 1,324,560 pounds. However, the quantity marketed over the most
recent full marketing year, 2015-2016, was 1,241,140 pounds. The
Committee chose to be conservative in the establishment of its trade
demand estimate for the 2017-2018 marketing year to avoid oversupplying
the market in the face of increasing production.
(C) Salable quantity of Native spearmint oil required from the
2017-2018 marketing year production: 1,060,180 pounds. This figure is
the difference between the estimated 2017-2018 marketing year estimated
trade demand (1,250,000 pounds) and the estimated carry-in on June 1,
2017 (189,820 pounds). This is the minimum amount of Native spearmint
oil that the Committee believes would be required to meet the
anticipated 2017-2018 marketing year trade demand.
(D) Total estimated allotment base of Native spearmint oil for the
2017-2018 marketing year: 2,443,297 pounds. This figure represents a
one-percent increase over the 2016-2017 total allotment base of
2,419,106 pounds as prescribed by the order in Sec. 985.53(d)(1). The
one-percent increase equals 24,191 pounds of Native spearmint oil. This
estimate is generally revised each year on June 1 due to producer base
being lost because of the bona fide effort production provisions of
Sec. 985.53(e). The revision is usually minimal.
(E) Computed Native spearmint oil allotment percentage for the
2017-2018 marketing year: 43.4 percent. This percentage is calculated
by dividing the required salable quantity (1,060,180 pounds) by the
total estimated allotment base (2,443,297 pounds) for the 2017-2018
marketing year.
(F) Recommended Native spearmint oil allotment percentage for the
2017-2018 marketing year: 44 percent. This is the Committee's
recommendation based on the computed allotment percentage (43.4
percent), the average of the computed allotment percentage figures from
the six production area meetings (46.7 percent), and input from
producers and handlers at the October 19, 2016, meeting. The
recommended 44 percent allotment percentage is also based on the
Committee's belief that the computed percentage (43.4 percent) may not
adequately supply the potential market for Native spearmint oil in the
2017-2018 marketing year.
(G) Recommended Native spearmint oil 2017-2018 marketing year
salable quantity: 1,075,051 pounds. This figure is the product of the
recommended allotment percentage (44 percent) and the total estimated
allotment base (2,443,297 pounds).
(H) Estimated available supply of Native spearmint oil for the
2017-2018 marketing year: 1,264,871 pounds. This figure is the sum of
the 2017-2018 recommended salable quantity (1,075,051 pounds) and the
estimated carry-in on June 1, 2017 (189,820 pounds).
[[Page 16005]]
Under volume regulation, the salable quantity is the total quantity
of each class of spearmint oil that handlers may purchase from, or
handle on behalf of, producers during a marketing year. Each producer
is allotted a share of the salable quantity by applying the allotment
percentage to the producer's allotment base for the applicable class of
spearmint oil.
The Committee's recommended Scotch and Native spearmint oil salable
quantities and allotment percentages of 774,645 pounds and 36 percent,
and 1,075,051 pounds and 44 percent, respectively, are based on the
goal of maintaining market stability. The Committee anticipates that
this goal would be achieved by matching the available supply of each
class of spearmint oil to the estimated demand of each, thus avoiding
extreme fluctuations in inventories and prices.
The salable quantities proposed in this rule are not expected to
cause a shortage of spearmint oil supplies. Any unanticipated or
additional market demand for spearmint oil which may develop during the
marketing year could be satisfied by an intra-seasonal increase in the
salable quantity. The order contains a provision in Sec. 985.51 for
intra-seasonal increases to allow the Committee the flexibility to
respond quickly to changing market conditions.
Under volume regulation, producers who produce more than their
annual allotments during the marketing year may transfer such excess
spearmint oil to producers who have produced less than their annual
allotment. In addition, on December 1 of each year, producers that have
not transferred their excess spearmint oil to other producers must
place their excess spearmint oil production into the reserve pool to be
released in the future in accordance with market needs and under the
Committee's direction.
This proposed action, if adopted, would be similar to regulations
issued in prior seasons. The average initial allotment percentage for
the five most recent marketing years for both Scotch and Native
spearmint oil is 52.6 percent.
In conjunction with the issuance of this proposed rule, USDA has
reviewed the Committee's marketing policy statement for the 2017-2018
marketing year. The Committee's marketing policy statement, a
requirement whenever the Committee recommends volume regulation, fully
meets the intent of Sec. Sec. 985.50 and 985.51 of the order.
During its discussion of potential 2017-2018 salable quantities and
allotment percentages, the Committee considered: (1) The estimated
quantity of salable oil of each class held by producers and handlers;
(2) the estimated demand for each class of oil; (3) the prospective
production of each class of oil; (4) the total of allotment bases of
each class of oil for the current marketing year and the estimated
total of allotment bases of each class for the ensuing marketing year;
(5) the quantity of reserve oil, by class, in storage; (6) producer
prices of oil, including prices for each class of oil; and (7) general
market conditions for each class of oil, including whether the
estimated season average price to producers is likely to exceed parity.
Conformity with USDA's ``Guidelines for Fruit, Vegetable, and Specialty
Crop Marketing Orders'' has also been reviewed and confirmed.
The establishment of the proposed salable quantities and allotment
percentages would allow for anticipated market needs. In determining
anticipated market needs, the Committee considered historical sales, as
well as changes and trends in production and demand. This rule would
also provide producers with information on the amount of spearmint oil
that should be produced for the 2017 season in order to meet
anticipated market demand.
Initial Regulatory Flexibility Analysis
Pursuant to requirements set forth in the Regulatory Flexibility
Act (RFA) (5 U.S.C. 601-612), the Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS)
has considered the economic impact of this action on small entities.
Accordingly, AMS has prepared this initial regulatory flexibility
analysis.
The purpose of the RFA is to fit regulatory actions to the scale of
businesses subject to such actions in order that small businesses will
not be unduly or disproportionately burdened. Marketing orders issued
pursuant to the Act, and the rules issued thereunder, are unique in
that they are brought about through group action of essentially small
entities acting on their own behalf.
There are eight spearmint oil handlers subject to regulation under
the order, approximately 41 producers of Scotch spearmint oil, and
approximately 94 producers of Native spearmint oil in the regulated
production area. Small agricultural service firms are defined by the
Small Business Administration (SBA) as those having annual receipts of
less than $7,500,000, and small agricultural producers are defined as
those having annual receipts of less than $750,000 (13 CFR 121.201).
Based on the SBA's definition of small entities, the Committee
estimates that two of the eight handlers regulated by the order could
be considered small entities. Most of the handlers are large
corporations involved in the international trading of essential oils
and the products of essential oils. In addition, the Committee
estimates that 12 of the 41 Scotch spearmint oil producers and 31 of
the 94 Native spearmint oil producers could be classified as small
entities under the SBA definition. Thus, a majority of handlers and
producers of Far West spearmint oil may not be classified as small
entities.
This proposed rule would establish the quantity of spearmint oil
produced in the Far West, by class, which handlers may purchase from,
or handle on behalf of, producers during the 2017-2018 marketing year.
The Committee recommended this rule to help maintain stability in the
spearmint oil market by matching supply to estimated demand, thereby
avoiding extreme fluctuations in supplies and prices. Establishing
quantities that may be purchased or handled during the marketing year
through volume regulations allows producers to coordinate their
spearmint oil production with the expected market demand. Authority for
this action is provided in Sec. Sec. 985.50, 985.51, and 985.52 of the
order.
The Far West spearmint oil industry is characterized by producers
whose farming operations generally involve more than one commodity and
whose income from farming operations is not exclusively dependent on
the production of spearmint oil. A typical spearmint oil producing
operation has enough acreage for rotation such that the total acreage
required to produce the crop is about one-third spearmint and two-
thirds rotational crops. Thus, the typical spearmint oil producer has
to have considerably more acreage than is planted to spearmint during
any given season. Crop rotation is an essential cultural practice in
the production of spearmint oil for purposes of weed, insect, and
disease control. To remain economically viable with the added costs
associated with spearmint oil production, a majority of spearmint oil
producing farms fall into the SBA category of large businesses.
Small spearmint oil producers generally are not as extensively
diversified as larger ones and, as such, are more at risk from market
fluctuations. Such small producers generally need to market their
entire annual production of spearmint oil and are not financially able
to hold spearmint oil for sale in future years. In addition, small
producers generally do not have a large assortment of other
[[Page 16006]]
crops to cushion seasons with poor spearmint oil returns.
Conversely, large diversified producers have the potential to
endure one or more seasons of poor spearmint oil markets because income
from alternate crops could support their operation for a period of
time. Reasonable assurance of a stable price and market provides all
producing entities with the ability to maintain proper cash flow and to
meet annual expenses.
Costs to producers and handlers, large and small, resulting from
this rules are expected to be offset by the benefits derived from a
more stable market and increased returns. The benefits of this rule are
expected to be equally available to all producers and handlers
regardless of their size.
Instability in the spearmint oil sub-sector of the mint industry is
much more likely to originate on the supply side than the demand side.
Fluctuations in yield and acreage planted from season to season tend to
be larger than fluctuations in the amount purchased by handlers.
Historically, demand for spearmint oil tends to change slowly from year
to year.
Demand for spearmint oil at the farm level is derived from retail
demand for spearmint-flavored products such as chewing gum, toothpaste,
and mouthwash. The manufacturers of these products are by far the
largest users of spearmint oil. However, spearmint flavoring is
generally a very minor component of the products in which it is used,
so changes in the raw product price have little impact on the retail
prices for those goods.
In 2013, 2014, and 2015, the Committee set salable percentages at
levels that resulted in most, if not all, of the spearmint oil
production being made available to the market. This was in response to
the increased demand for spearmint oil from the Far West due to
increased utilization by end users and the reduced supply of spearmint
oil coming from other production areas, both domestic and foreign.
Although there is still strong demand for spearmint oil, competing
areas (mainly Canada) have experienced better than expected production
in 2015 and 2016, and will create some marketing pressure for spearmint
oil from the Far West. In addition, the slowing of international
markets for spearmint-flavored products has negatively impacted the
demand for domestically produced spearmint oil. Thus, the lower salable
quantities and allotment percentages recommended by the Committee for
the 2017-2018 marketing year are intended to be responsive to the
changing environment of the spearmint oil market.
In the late 1990s, the Committee recommended higher than normal
salable quantities and allotment percentages in hopes of gaining market
share. This approach did not work, and in the following years, the
salable quantities and allotment percentages were established at lower
levels in order to reduce the excess spearmint oil production and
resulting build-up of inventory. In order to avoid a similar scenario
moving forward, the Committee, relying heavily on the information
provided to them by spearmint oil handlers during the October 19, 2016,
meeting, ultimately recommended reducing the 2017-2018 marketing year
salable quantities and allotment percentages from the previous year to
better align the available supply with market demand.
The Committee reported that recent producer prices for spearmint
oil are $16.50 to $18.00 per pound. Average producer prices for all
types of spearmint oil for 2013 through 2015 were $18.79, $19.21, and
$18.32, respectively. These are computed price averages for Washington,
Oregon, and Idaho combined, based on NASS data.
Spearmint oil production tends to be cyclical. Prior to the
inception of the marketing order in 1980, extreme variability in
producer prices was common. For example, the season average producer
price for Washington Native spearmint oil in 1971 was $3.00 per pound.
By 1975, the producer price had risen to $11.00 per pound, an increase
of over 260% in just four years. Such fluctuations were not unusual in
the spearmint oil industry in the years leading up to the promulgation
of the order. For most producers, this was an untenable situation.
Years of relatively high spearmint oil production, with demand
remaining relatively stable, led to periods in which large producer
stocks of unsold spearmint oil depressed producer prices. Shortages and
high prices followed in subsequent years, as producers responded to
price signals by cutting back production.
After establishment of the order, the supply and price variability
in the spearmint oil market moderated. During the 25-year period from
1982 to 2006, the season average producer price for Native spearmint
oil ranged from a high of $11.10 to a low of $9.00 per pound, or a
difference of 23 percent. No change in producer price from one year to
the next during this period was more than $1.00 per pound. This is a
remarkable record of price stability. From 2006 to 2008, when
production contracts tied to input costs were prevalent in the
industry, the annual average Native producer price jumped by $3.80 per
pound. During this time period, prices for fuel, fertilizer, and labor
increased dramatically, resulting in higher contracted producer prices
and a concurrent increase in the overall season average producer price
for the industry.
The significant variability of the spearmint oil market is
illustrated by the fact that the coefficient of variation, or CV (a
standard measure of variability), of Far West spearmint oil producer
prices for the period 1980-2015 (when the marketing order was in
effect) is 24 percent, compared to 36 percent for the decade prior to
the promulgation of the order (1970-79) and 49 percent for the prior
20-year period (1960-79). The coefficient of variation, as presented
herein, was calculated by USDA from information provided by the
Committee and NASS. This analysis provides an indication of the price
stabilizing impact of the marketing order as higher CV values
correspond to greater variability.
Based on NASS data, production in the shortest marketing year since
the establishment of the order was about 47 percent of the 36-year
average (1.96 million pounds from 1980 through 2015). The largest crop
was approximately 157 percent of the 36-year average. A key consequence
is that, in years of oversupply and low prices, the season average
producer price of spearmint oil is below the average cost of production
(as measured by the Washington State University Cooperative Extension
Service).
The wide fluctuations in supply and prices that result from the
cyclical nature of the spearmint oil industry, which were even more
pronounced before the creation of the order, can create liquidity
problems for some producers. The order was designed to reduce the price
impacts of the cyclical swings in production. However, producers have
been less able to weather these cycles in recent years because of
increases to production costs. While prices for spearmint oil have been
relatively steady, the cost of production has increased to the extent
that plans to plant spearmint may be postponed or vacated indefinitely.
Producers may also be enticed by the prices of alternative crops and
their lower cost of production.
In an effort to stabilize prices, the spearmint oil industry uses
the volume regulation mechanisms authorized under the order. This
authority allows the Committee to recommend a salable quantity and
allotment percentage for each class of oil for the upcoming
[[Page 16007]]
marketing year. The salable quantity for each class of oil is the total
volume of spearmint oil produced in a marketing year that producers may
sell during that same marketing year. The allotment percentage for each
class of spearmint oil is derived by dividing the salable quantity by
the total allotment base.
Each producer is then issued an annual allotment certificate, in
pounds, for the applicable class of oil. This is calculated by
multiplying the producer's allotment base by the applicable allotment
percentage. This is the amount of oil of each applicable class that the
producer can market under the order.
By December 1 of each year, the Committee identifies any oil that
individual producers have produced above the volume specified on annual
allotment certificates. Prior to December 1, such excess oil can be
transferred to another producer to fill a deficiency in that producer's
annual allotment as provided for in Sec. 985.156(a).
The order allows limited quantities of excess oil to be sold by one
producer to another producer to fill production deficiencies during a
marketing year. A deficiency occurs when on-farm production is less
than a producer's annual allotment. When a producer has a deficiency,
the producer may utilize their own reserve pool oil to fill that
deficiency, or excess production (production of spearmint oil in excess
of the producer's annual allotment) from another producer may also be
secured to fill the deficiency. As mentioned previously, all of these
provisions need to be exercised prior to December 1 of each year.
Excess spearmint oil not transferred to another producer to fill a
deficiency is held in storage and, on December 1, is added to the
reserve pool administered by the Committee pursuant to Sec. 985.157.
The Committee maintains the reserve pool for each class of spearmint
oil. Once spearmint oil is placed in the reserve pool, such spearmint
oil cannot enter the market during that marketing year unless USDA
approves a Committee recommendation to increase the salable quantity
and allotment percentage for a certain class of oil, subsequently
making a portion of the reserve pool of that class of spearmint oil
available to the market. Without an increase in the salable quantity
and allotment percentage, spearmint oil placed in the reserve pool
cannot be removed from the reserve pool and marketed in the marketing
year in which it is initially placed in the reserve pool. However,
producers may dispose of reserve spearmint oil from their own
production, and held in their own account, under certain provisions in
subsequent marketing years under the supervision of the Committee.
While the Committee administers the reserve pool of spearmint oil,
ownership and physical possession of spearmint oil held in reserve does
not transfer to the Committee. The Committee accounts for, and controls
the release of, reserve spearmint oil but does not take title to, or
dispose of, any such oil of its own accord or for its own benefit.
Producers, at their sole discretion, make the decisions regarding the
disposition of oil held in the reserve pool under any one of three
possible mechanisms.
Section 985.57(b) details the conditions under which a producer may
dispose of their reserve pool spearmint oil. First, producers may
utilize reserve oil from their own production to fill intra-seasonal
increases in the allotment percentage and salable quantity. Second,
producers may fill an ensuing year's annual allotment from spearmint
oil held in the reserve pool. Lastly, producers may exchange salable
oil of the same class and quantity of reserve oil from their own
production to rotate stock, so long as the Committee is properly
notified and the oil is properly identified.
In any given year, the total available supply of spearmint oil is
composed of current production plus salable carryover stocks from the
previous crop. The Committee seeks to maintain market stability by
balancing supply and demand, and to close the marketing year with an
appropriate level of salable spearmint oil to carry over into the
subsequent marketing year. If the industry has production in excess of
the salable quantity, the reserve pool absorbs the surplus quantity of
spearmint oil, thereby withholding it from the market, unless such oil
is needed to fill unanticipated intra-seasonal increases in demand. In
this way, excess spearmint oil is not allowed to oversupply the market
and create price instability. Likewise, if production is insufficient
in any given year to fully supply the market with spearmint oil, the
reserve pool oil can be released to satisfy the market demand until
production can be increased.
Therefore, under its provisions, the order may attempt to stabilize
prices by (1) regulating supply and establishing reserves in high
production years, thus minimizing the price-depressing effect that
excess producer stocks have on unsold spearmint oil and (2) ensuring
that stocks are available in short supply years when prices would
otherwise increase dramatically. Reserve pool stocks, which increase in
high production years, are drawn down in years where the crop is short.
An econometric model generated by USDA was used to assess the
impact that volume regulation has on the prices producers receive for
their commodity. Without volume regulation, spearmint oil markets would
likely be over-supplied. This could result in low producer prices and a
large volume of oil stored and carried over to the next crop year. The
model estimates how much lower producer prices would likely be in the
absence of volume regulation.
The Committee estimated trade demand for the 2017-2018 marketing
year for both classes of oil at 2,175,000 pounds, and that the expected
combined salable carry-in will be 364,327 pounds. This results in a
combined required salable quantity of 1,810,673 pounds (2,175,000
pounds of total trade demand less 364,327 pounds of total carry-in) for
the 2017-2018 marketing year. Under volume regulation, total sales of
spearmint oil by producers for the 2017-2018 marketing year would be
held to 2,214,023 pounds (the recommended salable quantity for both
classes of spearmint oil of 1,849,696 pounds plus 364,327 pounds of
carry-in). This total available supply of 2,214,023 pounds should be
more than adequate to supply the 2,175,000 pounds of anticipated total
trade demand for spearmint oil. In addition, as of June 1, 2016, the
total reserve pool for both classes of spearmint oil stood at 611,331
pounds. Furthermore, that quantity is expected to rise over the course
of the 2016-2017 marketing year. Should trade demand increase
unexpectedly during the 2017-2018 marketing year, reserve pool
spearmint oil could be released into the market to supply that increase
in demand.
The recommended allotment percentages, upon which 2017-2018
producer allotments are based, are 36 percent for Scotch spearmint oil
and 44 percent for Native spearmint oil. Without volume regulation,
producers would not be held to these allotment levels, and could
produce and sell an unrestricted quantity of spearmint oil. The USDA
econometric model estimated that the season average producer price per
pound (from both classes of spearmint oil) would decline about $2.45
per pound as a result of the higher quantities of spearmint oil that
would be produced and marketed without volume regulation. The surplus
situation for the spearmint oil market that would exist without volume
regulation in 2017-2018 also would likely dampen prospects for improved
[[Page 16008]]
producer prices in future years because of the buildup in stocks.
The use of volume regulation allows the industry to fully supply
spearmint oil markets while avoiding the negative consequences of over-
supplying these markets. The use of volume regulation is believed to
have little or no effect on consumer prices of products containing
spearmint oil and would not result in fewer retail sales of such
products.
The Committee discussed alternatives to the recommendations
contained in this rule for both classes of spearmint oil. The Committee
discussed and rejected the idea of not regulating any volume for both
classes of spearmint oil because of the severe price-depressing effects
that would likely occur without volume regulation. The alternative to
establish salable quantities and allotment percentages at the 2016-2017
marketing year's levels was discussed, but not put to any motion, for
both classes of oil. The Committee also discussed and considered
salable quantities and allotment percentages that were above and below
the levels that were ultimately recommended for Scotch spearmint oil.
Ultimately, the action taken by the Committee was to decrease the
salable quantities and allotment percentages for both Class 1 and Class
3 spearmint oil from the current 2016-2017 marketing year levels.
As noted earlier, the Committee's recommendation to establish
salable quantities and allotment percentages for both classes of
spearmint oil was made after careful consideration of all available
information including: (1) The estimated quantity of salable oil of
each class held by producers and handlers; (2) the estimated demand for
each class of oil; (3) the prospective production of each class of oil;
(4) the total of allotment bases of each class of oil for the current
marketing year and the estimated total of allotment bases of each class
for the ensuing marketing year; (5) the quantity of reserve oil, by
class, in storage; (6) producer prices of oil, including prices for
each class of oil; and (7) general market conditions for each class of
oil, including whether the estimated season average price to producers
is likely to exceed parity.
Based on its review, the Committee believes that the salable
quantities and allotment percentages recommended would achieve the
objectives sought. The Committee also believes that, should there be no
volume regulation in effect for the upcoming marketing year, the Far
West spearmint oil industry would return to the pronounced cyclical
price patterns that occurred prior to the promulgation of the order. As
previously stated, annual salable quantities and allotment percentages
have been issued for both classes of spearmint oil since the order's
inception. The salable quantities and allotment percentages proposed
herein are expected to facilitate the goal of maintaining orderly
marketing conditions for Far West spearmint oil for the 2017-2018 and
future marketing years.
In accordance with the Paperwork Reduction Act of 1995 (44 U.S.C.
Chapter 35), the order's information collection requirements have been
previously approved by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) and
assigned OMB No. 0581-0178, Specialty Crops Program. No changes are
necessary in those requirements as a result of this action. Should any
changes become necessary, they would be submitted to OMB for approval.
This proposed rule would establish the salable quantities and
allotment percentages for Class 1 (Scotch) spearmint oil and Class 3
(Native) spearmint oil produced in the Far West during the 2017-2018
marketing year. Accordingly, this action would not impose any
additional reporting or recordkeeping requirements on either small or
large spearmint oil producers or handlers. As with all Federal
marketing order programs, reports and forms are periodically reviewed
to reduce information requirements and duplication by industry and
public sector agencies.
AMS is committed to complying with the E-Government Act, to promote
the use of the internet and other information technologies to provide
increased opportunities for citizen access to Government information
and services, and for other purposes.
USDA has not identified any relevant Federal rules that duplicate,
overlap, or conflict with this proposed rule.
In addition, the Committee's meeting was widely publicized
throughout the spearmint oil industry and all interested persons were
invited to attend the meeting and participate in Committee
deliberations on all issues. Like all Committee meetings, the October
19, 2016, meeting was a public meeting and all entities, both large and
small, were able to express views on this issue. Finally, interested
persons are invited to submit comments on this proposed rule, including
the regulatory and informational impacts of this action on small
businesses.
A small business guide on complying with fruit, vegetable, and
specialty crop marketing agreements and orders may be viewed at: https://www.ams.usda.gov/rules-regulations/moa/small-businesses. Any questions
about the compliance guide should be sent to Richard Lower at the
previously mentioned address in the FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT
section.
A 30-day comment period is provided to allow interested persons to
respond to this proposal. Thirty days is deemed appropriate because
handlers are aware of this action, which was recommended by the
committee at a public meeting. In addition, this proposed rule would
need to be in place as soon as possible since producers will begin
planting spearmint root stock as early as February, 2017 and need
adequate time to decide which class and how much spearmint to grow. All
written comments timely received will be considered before a final
determination is made on this matter.
List of Subjects in 7 CFR Part 985
Marketing agreements, Oils and fats, Reporting and recordkeeping
requirements, Spearmint oil.
For the reasons set forth in the preamble, 7 CFR part 985 is
proposed to be amended as follows:
PART 985--MARKETING ORDER REGULATING THE HANDLING OF SPEARMINT OIL
PRODUCED IN THE FAR WEST
0
1. The authority citation for 7 CFR part 985 continues to read as
follows:
Authority: 7 U.S.C. 601-674.
0
2. A new Sec. 985.236 is added to read as follows:
Sec. 985.236 Salable quantities and allotment percentages--2017-2018
marketing year.
The salable quantity and allotment percentage for each class of
spearmint oil during the marketing year beginning on June 1, 2017,
shall be as follows:
(a) Class 1 (Scotch) oil--a salable quantity of 774,645 pounds and
an allotment percentage of 36 percent.
(b) Class 3 (Native) oil--a salable quantity of 1,075,051 pounds
and an allotment percentage of 44 percent.
Dated: March 27, 2017.
Bruce Summers,
Acting Administrator, Agricultural Marketing Service.
[FR Doc. 2017-06335 Filed 3-30-17; 8:45 am]
BILLING CODE 3410-02-P