Tart Cherries Grown in the States of Michigan, et al.; Free and Restricted Percentages for the 2016-17 Crop Year for Tart Cherries, 14481-14485 [2017-05484]
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14481
Proposed Rules
Federal Register
Vol. 82, No. 53
Tuesday, March 21, 2017
This section of the FEDERAL REGISTER
contains notices to the public of the proposed
issuance of rules and regulations. The
purpose of these notices is to give interested
persons an opportunity to participate in the
rule making prior to the adoption of the final
rules.
DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
Agricultural Marketing Service
7 CFR Part 930
[Doc. No. AMS–SC–16–0105; SC16–930–5
PR]
Tart Cherries Grown in the States of
Michigan, et al.; Free and Restricted
Percentages for the 2016–17 Crop Year
for Tart Cherries
Agricultural Marketing Service,
USDA.
ACTION: Proposed rule.
AGENCY:
This proposed rule would
implement a recommendation from the
Cherry Industry Administrative Board
(Board) to establish free and restricted
percentages for the 2016–17 crop year
under the marketing order for tart
cherries grown in the states of Michigan,
New York, Pennsylvania, Oregon, Utah,
Washington, and Wisconsin (order). The
Board locally administers the marketing
order and is comprised of producers and
handlers of tart cherries operating
within the production area, and a public
member. This action would establish
the proportion of tart cherries from the
2016 crop which may be handled in
commercial outlets at 71 percent free
and 29 percent restricted. These
percentages should stabilize marketing
conditions by adjusting supply to meet
market demand and help improve
grower returns.
DATES: Comments must be received by
April 20, 2017.
ADDRESSES: Interested persons are
invited to submit written comments
concerning this proposal. Comments
must be sent to the Docket Clerk,
Marketing Order and Agreement
Division, Specialty Crops Program,
AMS, USDA, 1400 Independence
Avenue SW., STOP 0237, Washington,
DC 20250–0237; Fax: (202) 720–8938; or
Internet: https://www.regulations.gov. All
comments should reference the
document number and the date and
page number of this issue of the Federal
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SUMMARY:
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Register and will be made available for
public inspection in the Office of the
Docket Clerk during regular business
hours, or can be viewed at: https://
www.regulations.gov. All comments
submitted in response to this proposal
will be included in the record and will
be made available to the public. Please
be advised that the identity of the
individuals or entities submitting the
comments will be made public on the
internet at the address provided above.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT:
Jennie M. Varela, Marketing Specialist,
or Christian D. Nissen, Regional
Director, Southeast Marketing Field
Office, Marketing Order and Agreement
Division, Specialty Crops Program,
AMS, USDA; Telephone: (863) 324–
3375, Fax: (863) 291–8614, or Email:
Jennie.Varela@ams.usda.gov or
Christian.Nissen@ams.usda.gov.
Small businesses may request
information on complying with this
regulation by contacting Richard Lower,
Marketing Order and Agreement
Division, Specialty Crops Program,
AMS, USDA, 1400 Independence
Avenue SW., STOP 0237, Washington,
DC 20250–0237; Telephone: (202) 720–
2491, Fax: (202) 720–8938, or Email:
Richard.Lower@ams.usda.gov.
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: This
proposal is issued under Marketing
Agreement and Order No. 930, both as
amended (7 CFR part 930), regulating
the handling of tart cherries produced in
the States of Michigan, New York,
Pennsylvania, Oregon, Utah,
Washington and Wisconsin, hereinafter
referred to as the ‘‘order.’’ The order is
effective under the Agricultural
Marketing Agreement Act of 1937, as
amended (7 U.S.C. 601–674), hereinafter
referred to as the ‘‘Act.’’
The Department of Agriculture
(USDA) is issuing this proposed rule in
conformance with Executive Orders
12866, 13563, and 13175.
This proposal has been reviewed
under Executive Order 12988, Civil
Justice Reform. Under the order
provisions now in effect, free and
restricted percentages may be
established for tart cherries handled
during the crop year. This proposed rule
would establish free and restricted
percentages for tart cherries for the
2016–17 crop year, beginning July 1,
2016, through June 30, 2017.
The Act provides that administrative
proceedings must be exhausted before
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parties may file suit in court. Under
section 608c(15)(A) of the Act, any
handler subject to an order may file
with USDA a petition stating that the
order, any provision of the order, or any
obligation imposed in connection with
the order is not in accordance with law
and request a modification of the order
or to be exempted therefrom. A handler
is afforded the opportunity for a hearing
on the petition. After the hearing, USDA
would rule on the petition. The Act
provides that the district court of the
United States in any district in which
the handler is an inhabitant, or has his
or her principal place of business, has
jurisdiction to review USDA’s ruling on
the petition, provided an action is filed
not later than 20 days after the date of
the entry of the ruling.
This proposed rule invites comments
on the establishment of free and
restricted percentages for the 2016–17
crop year. This proposal would
establish the proportion of tart cherries
from the 2016 crop which may be
handled in commercial outlets at 71
percent free and 29 percent restricted.
This proposal should stabilize
marketing conditions by adjusting
supply to meet market demand and help
improve grower returns. The proposed
carry-out and the final percentages were
recommended by the Board at a meeting
on September 8, 2016.
Section 930.51(a) of the order
provides authority to regulate volume
by designating free and restricted
percentages for any tart cherries
acquired by handlers in a given crop
year. Section 930.50 prescribes
procedures for computing an optimum
supply based on sales history and for
calculating these free and restricted
percentages. Free percentage volume
may be shipped to any market, while
restricted percentage volume must be
held by handlers in a primary or
secondary reserve, or be diverted or
used for exempt purposes as prescribed
in §§ 930.159 and 930.162 of the
regulations. Exempt purposes include,
in part, the development of new
products, sales into new markets, the
development of export markets, and
charitable contributions. Sections
930.55 through 930.57 prescribe
procedures for inventory reserve. For
cherries held in reserve, handlers would
be responsible for storage and would
retain title of the tart cherries.
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Under § 930.52, only those districts
with an annual average production over
the prior three years of at least six
million pounds are subject to regulation,
and any district producing a crop which
is less than 50 percent of its annual
average of the previous five years is
exempt. The regulated districts for the
2016–2017 crop year would be: District
1—Northern Michigan; District 2—
Central Michigan; District 3—Southern
Michigan; District 4—New York; District
7—Utah; District 8—Washington; and
District 9—Wisconsin. Districts 5 and 6
(Oregon and Pennsylvania, respectively)
would not be regulated for the 2016–17
season.
Demand for tart cherries and tart
cherry products tends to be relatively
stable from year to year. Conversely,
annual tart cherry production can vary
greatly. In addition, tart cherries are
processed and can be stored and carried
over from crop year to crop year, further
impacting supply. As a result, supply
and demand for tart cherries are rarely
in balance.
Because demand for tart cherries is
inelastic, total sales volume is not very
responsive to changes in price.
However, prices are very sensitive to
changes in supply. As such, an
oversupply of cherries would have a
sharp negative effect on prices, driving
down grower returns. The Board, aware
of this economic relationship, focuses
on using the volume control provisions
in the order to balance supply and
demand to stabilize industry returns.
Pursuant to § 930.50 of the order, the
Board meets on or about July 1 to review
sales data, inventory data, current crop
forecasts and market conditions for the
upcoming season and, if necessary, to
recommend preliminary free and
restricted percentages if anticipated
supply would exceed demand. After
harvest is complete, but no later than
September 15, the Board meets again to
update its calculations using actual
production data, consider any necessary
adjustments to the preliminary
percentages, and determine if final free
and restricted percentages should be
recommended to the Secretary.
The Board uses sales history,
inventory, and production data to
determine whether there is a surplus,
and if so, how much volume should be
restricted to maintain optimum supply.
The optimum supply represents the
desirable volume of tart cherries that
should be available for sale in the
coming crop year. Optimum supply is
defined as the average free sales of the
prior three years plus desirable carryout inventory. Desirable carry-out is the
amount of fruit needed by the industry
to be carried into the succeeding crop
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year to meet market demand until the
new crop is available. Desirable carryout is set by the Board after considering
market circumstances and needs.
Section 930.151(b) specifies that
desirable carry-out can range from 0 to
a maximum of 100 million pounds.
In addition, USDA’s ‘‘Guidelines for
Fruit, Vegetable, and Specialty Crop
Marketing Orders’’ (https://
www.ams.usda.gov/publications/
content/1982-guidelines-fruit-vegetablemarketing-orders) specify that 110
percent of recent years’ sales should be
made available to primary markets each
season before recommendations for
volume regulation are approved. This
requirement is codified in § 930.50(g) of
the order, which specifies that in years
when restricted percentages are
established, the Board shall make
available tonnage equivalent to an
additional 10 percent of the average
sales of the prior three years for market
expansion (market growth factor).
After the Board determines optimum
supply, desirable carry-out, and market
growth factor, it must examine the
current year’s available volume to
determine whether there is an
oversupply situation. Available volume
includes carry–in inventory (any
inventory available at the beginning of
the season) along with that season’s
production. If production is greater than
the optimum supply minus carry-in, the
difference is considered surplus. This
surplus tonnage is divided by the sum
of production in the regulated districts
to reach a restricted percentage. This
percentage must be held in reserve or
used for approved diversion activities,
such as exports.
The Board met on June 23, 2016, and
computed an optimum supply of 287
million pounds for the 2016–17 crop
year using the average of free sales for
the three previous seasons and a
desirable carry-out of 57 million
pounds. The Board determined three
months of sales would be a good
estimate for what was needed at the end
of the season, as there is a three-month
gap between the calculation of carry-out
at the end of one season and the
availability of fruit from the next season.
The recommended carry-out of 57
million pounds is approximately a
quarter of average annual sales.
The Board then subtracted the
estimated carry-in of 81.3 million
pounds from the optimum supply to
calculate the production needed from
the 2016–17 crop to meet optimum
supply. This number, 205.7 million
pounds, was subtracted from the
Board’s estimated 2016–17 production
of 351.3 million pounds to calculate a
surplus of 145.6 million pounds of tart
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cherries. The Board also complied with
the market growth factor requirement by
adding 23 million pounds (average sales
for prior three years of 230 million times
10 percent) to the free supply. The
surplus minus the market growth factor
was then divided by the expected
production in the regulated districts
(348 million pounds) to reach a
preliminary restricted percentage of 35
percent for the 2016–17 crop year.
The Board then discussed whether
this calculation would provide
sufficient supply to grow sales while
being able to supply orders that are
already scheduled, including filling
remaining orders from a USDA purchase
made the previous season. The Board,
after considering anticipated supply
needs for the 2016–17 season, decided
to make an economic adjustment of 22
million pounds to increase the available
supply of tart cherries. This economic
adjustment further reduced the
preliminary surplus to 100.6 million
pounds. After these adjustments, the
preliminary restricted percentage was
recalculated as 29 percent (100.6
million pounds divided by 348 million
pounds).
The Board met again on September 8,
2016, to consider final volume
regulation percentages for the 2016–17
season. The final percentages are based
on the Board’s reported production
figures and the supply and demand
information available in September. The
total production for the 2016–17 season
was 341 million pounds, 10 million
pounds below the Board’s June estimate.
In addition, growers diverted 26 million
pounds in the orchard, leaving 315
million pounds available to market, 310
million pounds of which are in the
restricted districts. Using the actual
production numbers, and accounting for
the recommended desirable carry-out
and economic adjustment, as well as the
market growth factor, the restricted
percentage was recalculated.
The Board subtracted the carry-in
figure used in June of 81.3 million
pounds from the optimum supply of 287
million pounds to determine 205.7
million pounds of 2016–17 production
would be necessary to reach optimum
supply. The Board subtracted the 205.7
million pounds from the actual
production of 341.3 million pounds,
resulting in a surplus of 135.6 million
pounds of tart cherries. The surplus was
then reduced by subtracting the
economic adjustment of 22 million
pounds and the market growth factor of
23 million pounds, resulting in an
adjusted surplus of 90.6 million pounds.
The Board then divided this final
surplus by the available production of
310 million pounds in the regulated
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districts (336.1 million pounds minus
26.4 million pounds of in-orchard
diversion) to calculate a restricted
percentage of 29 percent with a
corresponding free percentage of 71
percent for the 2016–17 crop year, as
outlined in the following table:
Millions of
pounds
Final Calculations:
(1) Average sales of the
prior three years ............
(2) Plus desirable carry-out
(3) Optimum supply calculated by the Board .....
(4) Carry-in as of July 1,
2016 ...............................
(5) Adjusted optimum supply (item 3 minus item 4)
(6) Board reported production .................................
(7) Surplus (item 6 minus
item 5) ...........................
(8) Total economic adjustments .............................
(9) Market growth factor ...
(10) Adjusted Surplus
(item 7 minus items 8
and 9) ............................
(11) Supply in regulated
districts ..........................
(12) In-Orchard Diversion
(13) Production minus in
orchard diversion ...........
230.0
57.0
287.0
81.3
205.7
341.3
135.6
22.0
23.0
90.6
336.1
26.4
309.7
Percent
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Final Percentages:
Restricted (item 10 divided
by item 13 × 100) ..........
Free (100 minus restricted
percentage) ...................
29
71
The primary purpose of setting
restricted percentages is an attempt to
bring supply and demand into balance.
If the primary market is oversupplied
with cherries, grower prices decline
substantially. Restricted percentages
have benefited grower returns and
helped stabilize the market as compared
to those seasons prior to the
implementation of the order. The Board
believes the available information
indicates that a restricted percentage
should be established for the 2016–17
crop year to avoid oversupplying the
market with tart cherries. Consequently,
based on its discussion of this issue and
the result of the above calculations, the
Board recommended final percentages
of 71 percent free and 29 percent
restricted by a vote of 16 in favor, 2
opposed, and 2 abstentions.
Though production came in below the
Board’s June estimate, the initial
restriction percentage remained the
same due to the substantial in-orchard
diversion. During the discussion of the
proposed restriction, several members
supported the proposed percentages as
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there was no change from the
preliminary 29 percent restriction
recommended in June. They believed
deviating from the percentages
announced in June would be disruptive
to the industry, as processors have
already made agreements with growers.
Another member noted when there
was a crop failure in 2012, there was not
enough reserve to maintain sales and
warned against being unprepared in the
future. The member also noted that in
the last four years, even with volume
regulation and an increase in imported
products, overall domestic sales have
increased since 2013, including modest
growth in both juice and piefill.
Some members opposed to the
proposed restriction expressed concern
regarding competition from imported
tart cherry juice concentrate. In
particular, they were concerned that the
additional volume from imports is not
accounted for in the Optimum Supply
Formula, thus not capturing overall
supply and demand.
Others were of the opinion that the
Board’s recent actions to expand the use
of diversion credits in new markets or
through grower diversion were allowing
the industry to remain competitive
without making additional adjustments
to supply. Another member countered
that not all handlers are helped by new
market diversion credits and cannot sell
all of their product under a restriction.
When asked how much of the market
currently being served by imports could
be supplied by the domestic handlers,
some members stated they could utilize
the full adjusted calculated surplus of
90.6 million pounds. Others noted that
trying to compete for those markets by
matching the price of imported
concentrate would drop grower returns
to an unsustainable level.
One member summarized that,
although there is a carrying cost for
storing restricted fruit, and the industry
appears to be at a trade disadvantage,
the Board should account for those
factors all the while focusing on
continuing to grow sales. Though there
was much discussion regarding the
market impact of imports, there was no
motion made by any Board member to
make a further economic adjustment to
the calculation based on imported
product.
After reviewing the available data,
and considering the concerns expressed,
the Board determined that a 29 percent
restriction with a carry-out volume of 57
million pounds would meet sales needs
and establish some reserves without
oversupplying the market. Thus, the
Board recommended establishing final
percentages of 71 percent free and 29
percent restricted. The Board could
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14483
meet and recommend the release of
additional volume during the crop year
if conditions so warranted.
Initial Regulatory Flexibility Analysis
Pursuant to requirements set forth in
the Regulatory Flexibility Act (RFA) (5
U.S.C. 601–612), the Agricultural
Marketing Service (AMS) has
considered the economic impact of this
proposed rule on small entities.
Accordingly, AMS has prepared this
initial regulatory flexibility analysis.
The purpose of the RFA is to fit
regulatory actions to the scale of
businesses subject to such actions in
order that small businesses will not be
unduly or disproportionately burdened.
Marketing orders issued pursuant to the
Act, and rules issued thereunder, are
unique in that they are brought about
through group action of essentially
small entities acting on their own
behalf.
There are approximately 600
producers of tart cherries in the
regulated area and approximately 40
handlers of tart cherries who are subject
to regulation under the order. Small
agricultural producers are defined by
the Small Business Administration
(SBA) as those having annual receipts of
less than $750,000 and small
agricultural service firms have been
defined as those whose annual receipts
are less than $7,500,000 (13 CFR
121.201).
According to the National
Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS)
and Board data, the average annual
grower price for tart cherries during the
2015–16 season was approximately
$0.347 per pound. With total utilization
at 251.1 million pounds, the total 2015–
16 crop value is estimated at $87
million. Dividing the crop value by the
estimated number of producers (600)
yields an estimated average annual
receipt per producer of $145,000. This
is well below the SBA threshold for
small producers. In 2015, The Food
Institute estimated a free on board
(f.o.b.) price of $0.96 per pound for
frozen tart cherries, which make up the
majority of processed tart cherries.
Multiplying the f.o.b price by total
utilization of 251.1 million pounds
results in an estimated handler-level tart
cherry value of $241 million. Dividing
this figure by the number of handlers
(40) yields an estimated average annual
handler receipts of $6 million, which is
below the SBA threshold for small
agricultural service firms. Assuming a
normal distribution, the majority of
producers and handlers of tart cherries
may be classified as small entities.
The tart cherry industry in the United
States is characterized by wide, annual
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fluctuations in production. According to
NASS, the pounds of tart cherry
production for the years 2012 through
2015 were 85 million, 291 million, 301
million, and 251 million, respectively.
Because of these fluctuations, supply
and demand for tart cherries are rarely
equal.
Demand for tart cherries is inelastic,
meaning changes in price have a
minimal effect on total sales volume.
However, prices are very sensitive to
changes in supply, and grower prices
vary widely in response to the large
swings in annual supply, with prices
ranging from a low of 7.3 cents per
pound in 1987 to a high of 59.4 cents
per pound in 2012.
Because of this relationship between
supply and price, oversupplying the
market with tart cherries would have a
sharp negative effect on prices, driving
down grower returns. The Board, aware
of this economic relationship, focuses
on using the volume control authority in
the order to align supply with demand
and stabilize industry returns. This
authority allows the industry to set free
and restricted percentages as a way to
bring supply and demand into balance.
Free percentage cherries can be
marketed by handlers to any outlet,
while restricted percentage volume
must be held by handlers in reserve,
diverted or used for exempted purposes.
This proposal would control the
supply of tart cherries by establishing
percentages of 71 percent free and 29
percent restricted for the 2016–17 crop
year. These percentages should stabilize
marketing conditions by adjusting
supply to meet market demand and help
improve grower returns. The proposal
would regulate tart cherries handled in
Michigan, New York, Utah, Washington,
and Wisconsin. The authority for this
action is provided for in §§ 930.50,
930.51(a) and 930.52 of the order. The
Board recommended this action at a
meeting on September 8, 2016.
This proposal would result in some
fruit being diverted from the primary
domestic markets. However, as
mentioned earlier, the USDA’s
‘‘Guidelines for Fruit, Vegetable, and
Specialty Crop Marketing Orders’’
(https://www.ams.usda.gov/publications/
content/1982-guidelines-fruit-vegetablemarketing-orders) specify that 110
percent of recent years’ sales should be
made available to primary markets each
season before recommendations for
volume regulation are approved. The
quantity that would be available under
this proposal is greater than 110 percent
of the average quantity shipped in the
prior three years.
In addition, there are secondary uses
available for restricted fruit, including
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the development of new products, sales
into new markets, the development of
export markets, and being placed in
reserve. While these alternatives may
provide different levels of return than
the sales to primary markets, they play
an important role for the industry. The
areas of new products, new markets,
and the development of export markets
utilize restricted fruit to develop and
expand the markets for tart cherries. In
2015–16, these activities accounted for
over 27 million pounds in sales, 12
million of which were exports.
Placing tart cherries into reserves is
also a key part of balancing supply and
demand. Although handlers bear the
handling and storage costs for fruit in
reserve, reserves stored in large crop
years are used to supplement supplies
in short crop years. The reserves allow
the industry to mitigate the impact of
oversupply in large crop years, while
allowing the industry to maintain
supply to markets in years when
production falls below demand. Further,
storage and handling costs are more
than offset by the increase in price when
moving from a large crop to a short crop
year.
In addition, the Board recommended
an increased carry-out of 57 million
pounds and made a demand adjustment
of 22 million pounds in order to make
the regulation less restrictive. Even with
the recommended restriction, over 300
million pounds of fruit would be
available to the domestic market.
Consequently, it is not anticipated that
this proposal would unduly burden
growers or handlers.
While this proposal could result in
some additional costs to the industry,
these costs are more than outweighed by
the benefits. The purpose of setting
restricted percentages is to attempt to
bring supply and demand into balance.
If the primary market (domestic) is
oversupplied with cherries, grower
prices decline substantially. Without
volume control, the primary market
would likely be oversupplied, resulting
in lower grower prices.
The three districts in Michigan, along
with the districts in New York, Utah,
Washington, and Wisconsin, are the
restricted areas for this crop year with
a combined total production of 310
million pounds. A 29 percent restriction
means 220 million pounds would be
available to be shipped to primary
markets from these five states. The 220
million pounds from the restricted
districts, 5 million pounds from the
unrestricted districts (Oregon and
Pennsylvania), and the 81 million
pound carry-in inventory would make a
total of 306 million pounds available as
free tonnage for the primary markets.
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This is similar to the 305 million
pounds of free tonnage made available
last year. This would be enough to cover
the 251 million pounds of total
utilization in 2015–2016, while
providing substantial carry-out. Further,
the Board could meet and recommend
the release of additional volume during
the crop year if conditions so warranted.
Prior to the implementation of the
order, grower prices often did not cover
the cost of production. The most recent
costs of production determined by
representatives of Michigan State
University are an estimated $0.33 per
pound. To assess the impact that
volume control has on the prices
growers receive for their product, an
econometric model has been developed.
Based on the model, the use of volume
control would have a positive impact on
grower returns for this crop year. With
volume control, grower prices are
estimated to be approximately $0.06 per
pound higher than without restrictions.
In addition, absent volume control, the
industry could start to build large
amounts of unwanted inventories.
These inventories would have a
depressing effect on grower prices.
Retail demand is assumed to be
highly inelastic, which indicates that
changes in price do not result in
significant changes in the quantity
demanded. Consumer prices largely do
not reflect fluctuations in cherry
supplies. Therefore, this proposal
should have little or no effect on
consumer prices and should not result
in a reduction in retail sales.
The free and restricted percentages
established by this proposal would
provide the market with optimum
supply and apply uniformly to all
regulated handlers in the industry,
regardless of size. As the restriction
represents a percentage of a handler’s
volume, the costs, when applicable, are
proportionate and should not place an
extra burden on small entities as
compared to large entities.
The stabilizing effects of this proposal
would benefit all handlers by helping
them maintain and expand markets,
despite seasonal supply fluctuations.
Likewise, price stability positively
impacts all growers and handlers by
allowing them to better anticipate the
revenues their tart cherries would
generate. Growers and handlers,
regardless of size, would benefit from
the stabilizing effects of this restriction.
In addition, the increased carry-out
should provide processors enough
supply to meet market needs going into
the next season.
The Board considered alternatives in
its preliminary restriction discussions
that affected this recommended action.
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Regarding demand, the Board began
with the actual sales average of 230
million pounds. However, the Board
noted that some previously contracted
sales would be due for delivery in the
coming season. In order to avoid
undersupplying the market, the Board
determined that the calculation of the
optimum supply should include an
additional adjustment for that purpose.
After discussion, an adjustment of an
additional 22 million pounds was made
the 2016–17 available supply of tart
cherries as it was determined that this
amount would best meet the industry’s
sales needs. Thus, the other alternative
levels were rejected.
Regarding the carry-out value, the
Board considered a range of alternatives.
One member suggested the Board begin
with 57 million pounds, approximately
a quarter of average annual sales. Other
members suggested alternatives as high
as 70 million pounds. However, some
members were concerned about leaving
too much fruit on the market at the end
of the season and depressing prices
going into the next year. The Board
determined three months of sales would
be a good estimate for what was needed
at the end of the season, as there is a
three-month gap between the
calculation of carry-out at the end of one
season and the availability of fruit from
the next season. Thus, the other
alternatives were rejected.
In accordance with the Paperwork
Reduction Act of 1995 (44 U.S.C.
Chapter 35), the order’s information
collection requirements have been
previously approved by the Office of
Management and Budget (OMB) and
assigned OMB No. 0581–0177, Tart
Cherries Grown in the States of
Michigan, New York, Pennsylvania,
Oregon, Utah, Washington, and
Wisconsin. No changes in those
requirements as a result of this action
are necessary. Should any changes
become necessary, they would be
submitted to OMB for approval.
This proposal would not impose any
additional reporting or recordkeeping
requirements on either small or large
tart cherry handlers. As with all Federal
marketing order programs, reports and
forms are periodically reviewed to
reduce information requirements and
duplication by industry and public
sector agencies.
AMS is committed to complying with
the E-Government Act, to promote the
use of the Internet and other
information technologies to provide
increased opportunities for citizen
access to Government information and
services, and for other purposes.
VerDate Sep<11>2014
15:59 Mar 20, 2017
Jkt 241001
USDA has not identified any relevant
Federal rules that duplicate, overlap or
conflict with this proposed rule.
In addition, the Board’s meeting was
widely publicized throughout the tart
cherry industry and all interested
persons were invited to attend the
meeting and participate in Board
deliberations on all issues. Like all
Board meetings, the June 23, 2016, and
September 8, 2016, meetings were
public meetings and all entities, both
large and small, were able to express
views on this issue. Finally, interested
persons are invited to submit comments
on this proposed rule, including the
regulatory and informational impacts of
this proposal on small businesses.
A small business guide on complying
with fruit, vegetable, and specialty crop
marketing agreements and orders may
be viewed at: https://www.ams.usda.gov/
rules-regulations/moa/small-businesses.
Any questions about the compliance
guide should be sent to Richard Lower
at the previously mentioned address in
the FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT
section.
A 30-day comment period is provided
to allow interested persons to respond
to this proposal. Thirty days is deemed
appropriate because this proposed rule
would need to be in place as soon as
possible since handlers are already
shipping tart cherries from the 2016–17
crop. All written comments timely
received will be considered before a
final determination is made on this
matter.
List of Subjects in 7 CFR Part 930
Marketing agreements, Reporting and
recordkeeping requirements, Tart
cherries.
For the reasons set forth in the
preamble, 7 CFR part 930 is proposed to
be amended as follows:
PART 930—TART CHERRIES GROWN
IN THE STATES OF MICHIGAN, NEW
YORK, PENNSYLVANIA, OREGON,
UTAH, WASHINGTON, AND
WISCONSIN
1. The authority citation for 7 CFR
part 930 continues to read as follows:
■
Authority: 7 U.S.C. 601–674.
2. Section 930.151 is revised to read
as follows:
■
§ 930.151
Desirable carry-out inventory.
For the 2016 crop year, the desirable
carry-out inventory, for the purposes of
determining an optimum supply
volume, will be 57 million pounds.
■ 3. Revise § 930.256 to read as follows:
PO 00000
Frm 00005
Fmt 4702
Sfmt 4702
14485
§ 930.256 Free and restricted percentages
for the 2016–17 crop year.
The percentages for tart cherries
handled by handlers during the crop
year beginning on July 1, 2016, which
shall be free and restricted, respectively,
are designated as follows: Free
percentage, 71 percent and restricted
percentage, 29 percent.
Dated: March 15, 2017.
Bruce Summers,
Acting Administrator, Agricultural Marketing
Service.
[FR Doc. 2017–05484 Filed 3–20–17; 8:45 am]
BILLING CODE 3410–02–P
DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
Agricultural Marketing Service
7 CFR Part 945
[Doc. No. AMS–SC–16–0111; SC17–945–1
PR]
Irish Potatoes Grown in Certain
Designated Counties in Idaho, and
Malheur County, Oregon; Decreased
Assessment Rate
Agricultural Marketing Service,
USDA.
ACTION: Proposed rule.
AGENCY:
This proposed rule would
implement a recommendation from the
Idaho-Eastern Oregon Potato Committee
(Committee) to decrease the assessment
rate established for the 2017–2018 and
subsequent fiscal periods from $0.0025
to $0.002 per hundredweight of potatoes
handled. The Committee locally
administers the marketing order which
regulates the handling of potatoes grown
in certain designated counties in Idaho,
and Malheur County, Oregon.
Assessments upon potato handlers are
used by the Committee to fund
reasonable and necessary expenses of
the program. The fiscal period begins
August 1 and ends July 31. The
assessment rate would remain in effect
indefinitely unless modified,
suspended, or terminated.
DATES: Comments must be received by
April 20, 2017.
ADDRESSES: Interested persons are
invited to submit written comments
concerning this proposed rule.
Comments must be sent to the Docket
Clerk, Marketing Order and Agreement
Division, Specialty Crops Program,
AMS, USDA, 1400 Independence
Avenue SW., STOP 0237, Washington,
DC 20250–0237; Fax: (202) 720–8938; or
internet: https://www.regulations.gov.
Comments should reference the
document number and the date and
SUMMARY:
E:\FR\FM\21MRP1.SGM
21MRP1
Agencies
[Federal Register Volume 82, Number 53 (Tuesday, March 21, 2017)]
[Proposed Rules]
[Pages 14481-14485]
From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office [www.gpo.gov]
[FR Doc No: 2017-05484]
========================================================================
Proposed Rules
Federal Register
________________________________________________________________________
This section of the FEDERAL REGISTER contains notices to the public of
the proposed issuance of rules and regulations. The purpose of these
notices is to give interested persons an opportunity to participate in
the rule making prior to the adoption of the final rules.
========================================================================
Federal Register / Vol. 82, No. 53 / Tuesday, March 21, 2017 /
Proposed Rules
[[Page 14481]]
DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
Agricultural Marketing Service
7 CFR Part 930
[Doc. No. AMS-SC-16-0105; SC16-930-5 PR]
Tart Cherries Grown in the States of Michigan, et al.; Free and
Restricted Percentages for the 2016-17 Crop Year for Tart Cherries
AGENCY: Agricultural Marketing Service, USDA.
ACTION: Proposed rule.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
SUMMARY: This proposed rule would implement a recommendation from the
Cherry Industry Administrative Board (Board) to establish free and
restricted percentages for the 2016-17 crop year under the marketing
order for tart cherries grown in the states of Michigan, New York,
Pennsylvania, Oregon, Utah, Washington, and Wisconsin (order). The
Board locally administers the marketing order and is comprised of
producers and handlers of tart cherries operating within the production
area, and a public member. This action would establish the proportion
of tart cherries from the 2016 crop which may be handled in commercial
outlets at 71 percent free and 29 percent restricted. These percentages
should stabilize marketing conditions by adjusting supply to meet
market demand and help improve grower returns.
DATES: Comments must be received by April 20, 2017.
ADDRESSES: Interested persons are invited to submit written comments
concerning this proposal. Comments must be sent to the Docket Clerk,
Marketing Order and Agreement Division, Specialty Crops Program, AMS,
USDA, 1400 Independence Avenue SW., STOP 0237, Washington, DC 20250-
0237; Fax: (202) 720-8938; or Internet: https://www.regulations.gov. All
comments should reference the document number and the date and page
number of this issue of the Federal Register and will be made available
for public inspection in the Office of the Docket Clerk during regular
business hours, or can be viewed at: https://www.regulations.gov. All
comments submitted in response to this proposal will be included in the
record and will be made available to the public. Please be advised that
the identity of the individuals or entities submitting the comments
will be made public on the internet at the address provided above.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Jennie M. Varela, Marketing
Specialist, or Christian D. Nissen, Regional Director, Southeast
Marketing Field Office, Marketing Order and Agreement Division,
Specialty Crops Program, AMS, USDA; Telephone: (863) 324-3375, Fax:
(863) 291-8614, or Email: Jennie.Varela@ams.usda.gov or
Christian.Nissen@ams.usda.gov.
Small businesses may request information on complying with this
regulation by contacting Richard Lower, Marketing Order and Agreement
Division, Specialty Crops Program, AMS, USDA, 1400 Independence Avenue
SW., STOP 0237, Washington, DC 20250-0237; Telephone: (202) 720-2491,
Fax: (202) 720-8938, or Email: Richard.Lower@ams.usda.gov.
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: This proposal is issued under Marketing
Agreement and Order No. 930, both as amended (7 CFR part 930),
regulating the handling of tart cherries produced in the States of
Michigan, New York, Pennsylvania, Oregon, Utah, Washington and
Wisconsin, hereinafter referred to as the ``order.'' The order is
effective under the Agricultural Marketing Agreement Act of 1937, as
amended (7 U.S.C. 601-674), hereinafter referred to as the ``Act.''
The Department of Agriculture (USDA) is issuing this proposed rule
in conformance with Executive Orders 12866, 13563, and 13175.
This proposal has been reviewed under Executive Order 12988, Civil
Justice Reform. Under the order provisions now in effect, free and
restricted percentages may be established for tart cherries handled
during the crop year. This proposed rule would establish free and
restricted percentages for tart cherries for the 2016-17 crop year,
beginning July 1, 2016, through June 30, 2017.
The Act provides that administrative proceedings must be exhausted
before parties may file suit in court. Under section 608c(15)(A) of the
Act, any handler subject to an order may file with USDA a petition
stating that the order, any provision of the order, or any obligation
imposed in connection with the order is not in accordance with law and
request a modification of the order or to be exempted therefrom. A
handler is afforded the opportunity for a hearing on the petition.
After the hearing, USDA would rule on the petition. The Act provides
that the district court of the United States in any district in which
the handler is an inhabitant, or has his or her principal place of
business, has jurisdiction to review USDA's ruling on the petition,
provided an action is filed not later than 20 days after the date of
the entry of the ruling.
This proposed rule invites comments on the establishment of free
and restricted percentages for the 2016-17 crop year. This proposal
would establish the proportion of tart cherries from the 2016 crop
which may be handled in commercial outlets at 71 percent free and 29
percent restricted. This proposal should stabilize marketing conditions
by adjusting supply to meet market demand and help improve grower
returns. The proposed carry-out and the final percentages were
recommended by the Board at a meeting on September 8, 2016.
Section 930.51(a) of the order provides authority to regulate
volume by designating free and restricted percentages for any tart
cherries acquired by handlers in a given crop year. Section 930.50
prescribes procedures for computing an optimum supply based on sales
history and for calculating these free and restricted percentages. Free
percentage volume may be shipped to any market, while restricted
percentage volume must be held by handlers in a primary or secondary
reserve, or be diverted or used for exempt purposes as prescribed in
Sec. Sec. 930.159 and 930.162 of the regulations. Exempt purposes
include, in part, the development of new products, sales into new
markets, the development of export markets, and charitable
contributions. Sections 930.55 through 930.57 prescribe procedures for
inventory reserve. For cherries held in reserve, handlers would be
responsible for storage and would retain title of the tart cherries.
[[Page 14482]]
Under Sec. 930.52, only those districts with an annual average
production over the prior three years of at least six million pounds
are subject to regulation, and any district producing a crop which is
less than 50 percent of its annual average of the previous five years
is exempt. The regulated districts for the 2016-2017 crop year would
be: District 1--Northern Michigan; District 2--Central Michigan;
District 3--Southern Michigan; District 4--New York; District 7--Utah;
District 8--Washington; and District 9--Wisconsin. Districts 5 and 6
(Oregon and Pennsylvania, respectively) would not be regulated for the
2016-17 season.
Demand for tart cherries and tart cherry products tends to be
relatively stable from year to year. Conversely, annual tart cherry
production can vary greatly. In addition, tart cherries are processed
and can be stored and carried over from crop year to crop year, further
impacting supply. As a result, supply and demand for tart cherries are
rarely in balance.
Because demand for tart cherries is inelastic, total sales volume
is not very responsive to changes in price. However, prices are very
sensitive to changes in supply. As such, an oversupply of cherries
would have a sharp negative effect on prices, driving down grower
returns. The Board, aware of this economic relationship, focuses on
using the volume control provisions in the order to balance supply and
demand to stabilize industry returns.
Pursuant to Sec. 930.50 of the order, the Board meets on or about
July 1 to review sales data, inventory data, current crop forecasts and
market conditions for the upcoming season and, if necessary, to
recommend preliminary free and restricted percentages if anticipated
supply would exceed demand. After harvest is complete, but no later
than September 15, the Board meets again to update its calculations
using actual production data, consider any necessary adjustments to the
preliminary percentages, and determine if final free and restricted
percentages should be recommended to the Secretary.
The Board uses sales history, inventory, and production data to
determine whether there is a surplus, and if so, how much volume should
be restricted to maintain optimum supply. The optimum supply represents
the desirable volume of tart cherries that should be available for sale
in the coming crop year. Optimum supply is defined as the average free
sales of the prior three years plus desirable carry-out inventory.
Desirable carry-out is the amount of fruit needed by the industry to be
carried into the succeeding crop year to meet market demand until the
new crop is available. Desirable carry-out is set by the Board after
considering market circumstances and needs. Section 930.151(b)
specifies that desirable carry-out can range from 0 to a maximum of 100
million pounds.
In addition, USDA's ``Guidelines for Fruit, Vegetable, and
Specialty Crop Marketing Orders'' (https://www.ams.usda.gov/publications/content/1982-guidelines-fruit-vegetable-marketing-orders)
specify that 110 percent of recent years' sales should be made
available to primary markets each season before recommendations for
volume regulation are approved. This requirement is codified in Sec.
930.50(g) of the order, which specifies that in years when restricted
percentages are established, the Board shall make available tonnage
equivalent to an additional 10 percent of the average sales of the
prior three years for market expansion (market growth factor).
After the Board determines optimum supply, desirable carry-out, and
market growth factor, it must examine the current year's available
volume to determine whether there is an oversupply situation. Available
volume includes carry-in inventory (any inventory available at the
beginning of the season) along with that season's production. If
production is greater than the optimum supply minus carry-in, the
difference is considered surplus. This surplus tonnage is divided by
the sum of production in the regulated districts to reach a restricted
percentage. This percentage must be held in reserve or used for
approved diversion activities, such as exports.
The Board met on June 23, 2016, and computed an optimum supply of
287 million pounds for the 2016-17 crop year using the average of free
sales for the three previous seasons and a desirable carry-out of 57
million pounds. The Board determined three months of sales would be a
good estimate for what was needed at the end of the season, as there is
a three-month gap between the calculation of carry-out at the end of
one season and the availability of fruit from the next season. The
recommended carry-out of 57 million pounds is approximately a quarter
of average annual sales.
The Board then subtracted the estimated carry-in of 81.3 million
pounds from the optimum supply to calculate the production needed from
the 2016-17 crop to meet optimum supply. This number, 205.7 million
pounds, was subtracted from the Board's estimated 2016-17 production of
351.3 million pounds to calculate a surplus of 145.6 million pounds of
tart cherries. The Board also complied with the market growth factor
requirement by adding 23 million pounds (average sales for prior three
years of 230 million times 10 percent) to the free supply. The surplus
minus the market growth factor was then divided by the expected
production in the regulated districts (348 million pounds) to reach a
preliminary restricted percentage of 35 percent for the 2016-17 crop
year.
The Board then discussed whether this calculation would provide
sufficient supply to grow sales while being able to supply orders that
are already scheduled, including filling remaining orders from a USDA
purchase made the previous season. The Board, after considering
anticipated supply needs for the 2016-17 season, decided to make an
economic adjustment of 22 million pounds to increase the available
supply of tart cherries. This economic adjustment further reduced the
preliminary surplus to 100.6 million pounds. After these adjustments,
the preliminary restricted percentage was recalculated as 29 percent
(100.6 million pounds divided by 348 million pounds).
The Board met again on September 8, 2016, to consider final volume
regulation percentages for the 2016-17 season. The final percentages
are based on the Board's reported production figures and the supply and
demand information available in September. The total production for the
2016-17 season was 341 million pounds, 10 million pounds below the
Board's June estimate. In addition, growers diverted 26 million pounds
in the orchard, leaving 315 million pounds available to market, 310
million pounds of which are in the restricted districts. Using the
actual production numbers, and accounting for the recommended desirable
carry-out and economic adjustment, as well as the market growth factor,
the restricted percentage was recalculated.
The Board subtracted the carry-in figure used in June of 81.3
million pounds from the optimum supply of 287 million pounds to
determine 205.7 million pounds of 2016-17 production would be necessary
to reach optimum supply. The Board subtracted the 205.7 million pounds
from the actual production of 341.3 million pounds, resulting in a
surplus of 135.6 million pounds of tart cherries. The surplus was then
reduced by subtracting the economic adjustment of 22 million pounds and
the market growth factor of 23 million pounds, resulting in an adjusted
surplus of 90.6 million pounds. The Board then divided this final
surplus by the available production of 310 million pounds in the
regulated
[[Page 14483]]
districts (336.1 million pounds minus 26.4 million pounds of in-orchard
diversion) to calculate a restricted percentage of 29 percent with a
corresponding free percentage of 71 percent for the 2016-17 crop year,
as outlined in the following table:
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Millions of
pounds
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Final Calculations:
(1) Average sales of the prior three years............ 230.0
(2) Plus desirable carry-out.......................... 57.0
(3) Optimum supply calculated by the Board............ 287.0
(4) Carry-in as of July 1, 2016....................... 81.3
(5) Adjusted optimum supply (item 3 minus item 4)..... 205.7
(6) Board reported production......................... 341.3
(7) Surplus (item 6 minus item 5)..................... 135.6
(8) Total economic adjustments........................ 22.0
(9) Market growth factor.............................. 23.0
(10) Adjusted Surplus (item 7 minus items 8 and 9).... 90.6
(11) Supply in regulated districts.................... 336.1
(12) In-Orchard Diversion............................. 26.4
(13) Production minus in orchard diversion............ 309.7
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Percent
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Final Percentages:
Restricted (item 10 divided by item 13 x 100)......... 29
Free (100 minus restricted percentage)................ 71
------------------------------------------------------------------------
The primary purpose of setting restricted percentages is an attempt
to bring supply and demand into balance. If the primary market is
oversupplied with cherries, grower prices decline substantially.
Restricted percentages have benefited grower returns and helped
stabilize the market as compared to those seasons prior to the
implementation of the order. The Board believes the available
information indicates that a restricted percentage should be
established for the 2016-17 crop year to avoid oversupplying the market
with tart cherries. Consequently, based on its discussion of this issue
and the result of the above calculations, the Board recommended final
percentages of 71 percent free and 29 percent restricted by a vote of
16 in favor, 2 opposed, and 2 abstentions.
Though production came in below the Board's June estimate, the
initial restriction percentage remained the same due to the substantial
in-orchard diversion. During the discussion of the proposed
restriction, several members supported the proposed percentages as
there was no change from the preliminary 29 percent restriction
recommended in June. They believed deviating from the percentages
announced in June would be disruptive to the industry, as processors
have already made agreements with growers.
Another member noted when there was a crop failure in 2012, there
was not enough reserve to maintain sales and warned against being
unprepared in the future. The member also noted that in the last four
years, even with volume regulation and an increase in imported
products, overall domestic sales have increased since 2013, including
modest growth in both juice and piefill.
Some members opposed to the proposed restriction expressed concern
regarding competition from imported tart cherry juice concentrate. In
particular, they were concerned that the additional volume from imports
is not accounted for in the Optimum Supply Formula, thus not capturing
overall supply and demand.
Others were of the opinion that the Board's recent actions to
expand the use of diversion credits in new markets or through grower
diversion were allowing the industry to remain competitive without
making additional adjustments to supply. Another member countered that
not all handlers are helped by new market diversion credits and cannot
sell all of their product under a restriction.
When asked how much of the market currently being served by imports
could be supplied by the domestic handlers, some members stated they
could utilize the full adjusted calculated surplus of 90.6 million
pounds. Others noted that trying to compete for those markets by
matching the price of imported concentrate would drop grower returns to
an unsustainable level.
One member summarized that, although there is a carrying cost for
storing restricted fruit, and the industry appears to be at a trade
disadvantage, the Board should account for those factors all the while
focusing on continuing to grow sales. Though there was much discussion
regarding the market impact of imports, there was no motion made by any
Board member to make a further economic adjustment to the calculation
based on imported product.
After reviewing the available data, and considering the concerns
expressed, the Board determined that a 29 percent restriction with a
carry-out volume of 57 million pounds would meet sales needs and
establish some reserves without oversupplying the market. Thus, the
Board recommended establishing final percentages of 71 percent free and
29 percent restricted. The Board could meet and recommend the release
of additional volume during the crop year if conditions so warranted.
Initial Regulatory Flexibility Analysis
Pursuant to requirements set forth in the Regulatory Flexibility
Act (RFA) (5 U.S.C. 601-612), the Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS)
has considered the economic impact of this proposed rule on small
entities. Accordingly, AMS has prepared this initial regulatory
flexibility analysis.
The purpose of the RFA is to fit regulatory actions to the scale of
businesses subject to such actions in order that small businesses will
not be unduly or disproportionately burdened. Marketing orders issued
pursuant to the Act, and rules issued thereunder, are unique in that
they are brought about through group action of essentially small
entities acting on their own behalf.
There are approximately 600 producers of tart cherries in the
regulated area and approximately 40 handlers of tart cherries who are
subject to regulation under the order. Small agricultural producers are
defined by the Small Business Administration (SBA) as those having
annual receipts of less than $750,000 and small agricultural service
firms have been defined as those whose annual receipts are less than
$7,500,000 (13 CFR 121.201).
According to the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS)
and Board data, the average annual grower price for tart cherries
during the 2015-16 season was approximately $0.347 per pound. With
total utilization at 251.1 million pounds, the total 2015-16 crop value
is estimated at $87 million. Dividing the crop value by the estimated
number of producers (600) yields an estimated average annual receipt
per producer of $145,000. This is well below the SBA threshold for
small producers. In 2015, The Food Institute estimated a free on board
(f.o.b.) price of $0.96 per pound for frozen tart cherries, which make
up the majority of processed tart cherries. Multiplying the f.o.b price
by total utilization of 251.1 million pounds results in an estimated
handler-level tart cherry value of $241 million. Dividing this figure
by the number of handlers (40) yields an estimated average annual
handler receipts of $6 million, which is below the SBA threshold for
small agricultural service firms. Assuming a normal distribution, the
majority of producers and handlers of tart cherries may be classified
as small entities.
The tart cherry industry in the United States is characterized by
wide, annual
[[Page 14484]]
fluctuations in production. According to NASS, the pounds of tart
cherry production for the years 2012 through 2015 were 85 million, 291
million, 301 million, and 251 million, respectively. Because of these
fluctuations, supply and demand for tart cherries are rarely equal.
Demand for tart cherries is inelastic, meaning changes in price
have a minimal effect on total sales volume. However, prices are very
sensitive to changes in supply, and grower prices vary widely in
response to the large swings in annual supply, with prices ranging from
a low of 7.3 cents per pound in 1987 to a high of 59.4 cents per pound
in 2012.
Because of this relationship between supply and price,
oversupplying the market with tart cherries would have a sharp negative
effect on prices, driving down grower returns. The Board, aware of this
economic relationship, focuses on using the volume control authority in
the order to align supply with demand and stabilize industry returns.
This authority allows the industry to set free and restricted
percentages as a way to bring supply and demand into balance. Free
percentage cherries can be marketed by handlers to any outlet, while
restricted percentage volume must be held by handlers in reserve,
diverted or used for exempted purposes.
This proposal would control the supply of tart cherries by
establishing percentages of 71 percent free and 29 percent restricted
for the 2016-17 crop year. These percentages should stabilize marketing
conditions by adjusting supply to meet market demand and help improve
grower returns. The proposal would regulate tart cherries handled in
Michigan, New York, Utah, Washington, and Wisconsin. The authority for
this action is provided for in Sec. Sec. 930.50, 930.51(a) and 930.52
of the order. The Board recommended this action at a meeting on
September 8, 2016.
This proposal would result in some fruit being diverted from the
primary domestic markets. However, as mentioned earlier, the USDA's
``Guidelines for Fruit, Vegetable, and Specialty Crop Marketing
Orders'' (https://www.ams.usda.gov/publications/content/1982-guidelines-fruit-vegetable-marketing-orders) specify that 110 percent of recent
years' sales should be made available to primary markets each season
before recommendations for volume regulation are approved. The quantity
that would be available under this proposal is greater than 110 percent
of the average quantity shipped in the prior three years.
In addition, there are secondary uses available for restricted
fruit, including the development of new products, sales into new
markets, the development of export markets, and being placed in
reserve. While these alternatives may provide different levels of
return than the sales to primary markets, they play an important role
for the industry. The areas of new products, new markets, and the
development of export markets utilize restricted fruit to develop and
expand the markets for tart cherries. In 2015-16, these activities
accounted for over 27 million pounds in sales, 12 million of which were
exports.
Placing tart cherries into reserves is also a key part of balancing
supply and demand. Although handlers bear the handling and storage
costs for fruit in reserve, reserves stored in large crop years are
used to supplement supplies in short crop years. The reserves allow the
industry to mitigate the impact of oversupply in large crop years,
while allowing the industry to maintain supply to markets in years when
production falls below demand. Further, storage and handling costs are
more than offset by the increase in price when moving from a large crop
to a short crop year.
In addition, the Board recommended an increased carry-out of 57
million pounds and made a demand adjustment of 22 million pounds in
order to make the regulation less restrictive. Even with the
recommended restriction, over 300 million pounds of fruit would be
available to the domestic market. Consequently, it is not anticipated
that this proposal would unduly burden growers or handlers.
While this proposal could result in some additional costs to the
industry, these costs are more than outweighed by the benefits. The
purpose of setting restricted percentages is to attempt to bring supply
and demand into balance. If the primary market (domestic) is
oversupplied with cherries, grower prices decline substantially.
Without volume control, the primary market would likely be
oversupplied, resulting in lower grower prices.
The three districts in Michigan, along with the districts in New
York, Utah, Washington, and Wisconsin, are the restricted areas for
this crop year with a combined total production of 310 million pounds.
A 29 percent restriction means 220 million pounds would be available to
be shipped to primary markets from these five states. The 220 million
pounds from the restricted districts, 5 million pounds from the
unrestricted districts (Oregon and Pennsylvania), and the 81 million
pound carry-in inventory would make a total of 306 million pounds
available as free tonnage for the primary markets. This is similar to
the 305 million pounds of free tonnage made available last year. This
would be enough to cover the 251 million pounds of total utilization in
2015-2016, while providing substantial carry-out. Further, the Board
could meet and recommend the release of additional volume during the
crop year if conditions so warranted.
Prior to the implementation of the order, grower prices often did
not cover the cost of production. The most recent costs of production
determined by representatives of Michigan State University are an
estimated $0.33 per pound. To assess the impact that volume control has
on the prices growers receive for their product, an econometric model
has been developed. Based on the model, the use of volume control would
have a positive impact on grower returns for this crop year. With
volume control, grower prices are estimated to be approximately $0.06
per pound higher than without restrictions. In addition, absent volume
control, the industry could start to build large amounts of unwanted
inventories. These inventories would have a depressing effect on grower
prices.
Retail demand is assumed to be highly inelastic, which indicates
that changes in price do not result in significant changes in the
quantity demanded. Consumer prices largely do not reflect fluctuations
in cherry supplies. Therefore, this proposal should have little or no
effect on consumer prices and should not result in a reduction in
retail sales.
The free and restricted percentages established by this proposal
would provide the market with optimum supply and apply uniformly to all
regulated handlers in the industry, regardless of size. As the
restriction represents a percentage of a handler's volume, the costs,
when applicable, are proportionate and should not place an extra burden
on small entities as compared to large entities.
The stabilizing effects of this proposal would benefit all handlers
by helping them maintain and expand markets, despite seasonal supply
fluctuations. Likewise, price stability positively impacts all growers
and handlers by allowing them to better anticipate the revenues their
tart cherries would generate. Growers and handlers, regardless of size,
would benefit from the stabilizing effects of this restriction. In
addition, the increased carry-out should provide processors enough
supply to meet market needs going into the next season.
The Board considered alternatives in its preliminary restriction
discussions that affected this recommended action.
[[Page 14485]]
Regarding demand, the Board began with the actual sales average of 230
million pounds. However, the Board noted that some previously
contracted sales would be due for delivery in the coming season. In
order to avoid undersupplying the market, the Board determined that the
calculation of the optimum supply should include an additional
adjustment for that purpose. After discussion, an adjustment of an
additional 22 million pounds was made the 2016-17 available supply of
tart cherries as it was determined that this amount would best meet the
industry's sales needs. Thus, the other alternative levels were
rejected.
Regarding the carry-out value, the Board considered a range of
alternatives. One member suggested the Board begin with 57 million
pounds, approximately a quarter of average annual sales. Other members
suggested alternatives as high as 70 million pounds. However, some
members were concerned about leaving too much fruit on the market at
the end of the season and depressing prices going into the next year.
The Board determined three months of sales would be a good estimate for
what was needed at the end of the season, as there is a three-month gap
between the calculation of carry-out at the end of one season and the
availability of fruit from the next season. Thus, the other
alternatives were rejected.
In accordance with the Paperwork Reduction Act of 1995 (44 U.S.C.
Chapter 35), the order's information collection requirements have been
previously approved by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) and
assigned OMB No. 0581-0177, Tart Cherries Grown in the States of
Michigan, New York, Pennsylvania, Oregon, Utah, Washington, and
Wisconsin. No changes in those requirements as a result of this action
are necessary. Should any changes become necessary, they would be
submitted to OMB for approval.
This proposal would not impose any additional reporting or
recordkeeping requirements on either small or large tart cherry
handlers. As with all Federal marketing order programs, reports and
forms are periodically reviewed to reduce information requirements and
duplication by industry and public sector agencies.
AMS is committed to complying with the E-Government Act, to promote
the use of the Internet and other information technologies to provide
increased opportunities for citizen access to Government information
and services, and for other purposes.
USDA has not identified any relevant Federal rules that duplicate,
overlap or conflict with this proposed rule.
In addition, the Board's meeting was widely publicized throughout
the tart cherry industry and all interested persons were invited to
attend the meeting and participate in Board deliberations on all
issues. Like all Board meetings, the June 23, 2016, and September 8,
2016, meetings were public meetings and all entities, both large and
small, were able to express views on this issue. Finally, interested
persons are invited to submit comments on this proposed rule, including
the regulatory and informational impacts of this proposal on small
businesses.
A small business guide on complying with fruit, vegetable, and
specialty crop marketing agreements and orders may be viewed at: https://www.ams.usda.gov/rules-regulations/moa/small-businesses. Any questions
about the compliance guide should be sent to Richard Lower at the
previously mentioned address in the FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT
section.
A 30-day comment period is provided to allow interested persons to
respond to this proposal. Thirty days is deemed appropriate because
this proposed rule would need to be in place as soon as possible since
handlers are already shipping tart cherries from the 2016-17 crop. All
written comments timely received will be considered before a final
determination is made on this matter.
List of Subjects in 7 CFR Part 930
Marketing agreements, Reporting and recordkeeping requirements,
Tart cherries.
For the reasons set forth in the preamble, 7 CFR part 930 is
proposed to be amended as follows:
PART 930--TART CHERRIES GROWN IN THE STATES OF MICHIGAN, NEW YORK,
PENNSYLVANIA, OREGON, UTAH, WASHINGTON, AND WISCONSIN
0
1. The authority citation for 7 CFR part 930 continues to read as
follows:
Authority: 7 U.S.C. 601-674.
0
2. Section 930.151 is revised to read as follows:
Sec. 930.151 Desirable carry-out inventory.
For the 2016 crop year, the desirable carry-out inventory, for the
purposes of determining an optimum supply volume, will be 57 million
pounds.
0
3. Revise Sec. 930.256 to read as follows:
Sec. 930.256 Free and restricted percentages for the 2016-17 crop
year.
The percentages for tart cherries handled by handlers during the
crop year beginning on July 1, 2016, which shall be free and
restricted, respectively, are designated as follows: Free percentage,
71 percent and restricted percentage, 29 percent.
Dated: March 15, 2017.
Bruce Summers,
Acting Administrator, Agricultural Marketing Service.
[FR Doc. 2017-05484 Filed 3-20-17; 8:45 am]
BILLING CODE 3410-02-P