Public Comment on an Annotated Outline for the Fourth National Climate Assessment, 43671-43673 [2016-15807]

Download as PDF 43671 Federal Register / Vol. 81, No. 128 / Tuesday, July 5, 2016 / Notices for establishing disability and proof of continuing disability under the RRA are prescribed in 20 CFR 220. Annuities are also payable to (1) qualified spouses and widow(ers) under sections 2(c)(1)(ii)(C) and 2(d)(1)(ii) of the RRA who have a qualifying child who became disabled before age 22; (2) surviving children on the basis of disability under section 2(d)(1)(iii)(C), if the child’s disability began before age 22; and (3) widow(er)s on the basis of disability under section 2(d)(1)(i)(B). To meet the disability standard, the RRA provides that individuals must have a permanent physical or mental condition that makes them unable to engage in any regular employment. Under section 2(d)(1)(v) of the RRA, annuities are also payable to remarried widow(er)s and surviving divorced spouses on the basis of, among other things, disability or having a qualifying disabled child in care. However, the disability standard in these cases is that found in the Social Security Act. That is, individuals must be unable to engage in any substantial gainful activity by reason of any medically determinable physical or mental impairment. The RRB also determines entitlement to a Period of Disability and entitlement to early Medicare based on disability for qualified claimants in accordance with Section 216 of the Social Security Act. When making disability determinations, the RRB needs evidence from acceptable medical sources. The RRB currently utilizes Forms G–3EMP, Report of Medical Condition by Employer; G–197, Authorization to Disclose Information to the Railroad Retirement Board; G–250, Medical Assessment; G–250A, Medical Assessment of Residual Functional Capacity; G–260, Report of Seizure Disorder; RL–11B, Disclosure of Hospital Medical Records; RL–11D, Disclosure of Medical Records from a State Agency; and RL–250, Request for Medical Assessment, to obtain the necessary medical evidence. The RRB proposes no revisions to these forms. In support of the RRB’s Disability Program Improvement Project to enhance/improve disability case processing and overall program integrity, the RRB proposes the addition of proposed Form RL–11D1, Request for Medical Evidence from Employers, to the information collection. Form RL– 11D1 will be mailed by an RRB field office to railroad and nonrailroad employers to obtain any medical evidence regarding the employee’s disability that they may have acquired within the last 18 months. A copy of the employee signed Form G–197 will be enclosed with the RL–11D1. The employer will return the RL–11D1 to RRB Headquarters certifying that they either have submitted the requested medical evidence or that they have no medical evidence to submit. One response is requested of each respondent. Completion is voluntary. ESTIMATE OF ANNUAL RESPONDENT BURDEN Annual responses Form No. Time (minutes) Burden (hours) G–3EMP ...................................................................................................................................... G–197 .......................................................................................................................................... G–250 .......................................................................................................................................... G–250A ........................................................................................................................................ G–260 .......................................................................................................................................... RL–11B ........................................................................................................................................ RL–11D ........................................................................................................................................ RL–11D1 ...................................................................................................................................... RL–250 ........................................................................................................................................ 600 6,000 11,950 50 100 5,000 250 600 11,950 10 10 30 20 25 10 10 20 10 100 1,000 5,975 17 42 833 42 200 1,992 Total ...................................................................................................................................... 36,500 ........................ 10,201 sradovich on DSK3GDR082PROD with NOTICES Additional Information or Comments: To request more information or to obtain a copy of the information collection justification, forms, and/or supporting material, contact Dana Hickman at (312) 751–4981 or Dana.Hickman@RRB.GOV. Comments regarding the information collection should be addressed to Charles Mierzwa, Railroad Retirement Board, 844 North Rush Street, Chicago, Illinois 60611–2092 or emailed to Charles.Mierzwa@RRB.GOV. Written comments should be received within 60 days of this notice. Charles Mierzwa, Chief of Information Resources Management. [FR Doc. 2016–15887 Filed 7–1–16; 8:45 am] BILLING CODE 7905–01–P VerDate Sep<11>2014 17:27 Jul 01, 2016 Jkt 238001 OFFICE OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY POLICY Public Comment on an Annotated Outline for the Fourth National Climate Assessment Notice of request for public comment. ACTION: With this notice, The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) seeks public comment on the proposed content and scope of the Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4) as indicated by the draft outline presented here. A Request for Information in 2015 sought public input on the sustained National Climate Assessment (NCA) process more generally (80 FR 26105, https:// federalregister.gov/a/2015-10352). The outline for NCA4 is informed by that previously received public input. General topics on which public comment is requested, in addition to the SUMMARY: PO 00000 Frm 00102 Fmt 4703 Sfmt 4703 proposed outline, include: (1) Ways to make the assessment information accessible and useful to multiple audiences; (2) the specific types of detailed information at regional scales that would be most useful; (3) suggestions for how to best describe risks and impacts, as well as potential opportunities to reduce those risks and impacts on sectors of the economy as well as natural and social systems; (4) suggestions for new approaches to topics addressed in previous assessments; and (5) suggestions regarding overarching themes that NCA4 should consider addressing. A call for author nominations and technical inputs may soon be posted in one or more subsequent Federal Register Notices. A draft of NCA4 will also be released for public comment prior to its final release. Background information, additional details, and instructions for submitting comments can be found at www.globalchange.gov/ E:\FR\FM\05JYN1.SGM 05JYN1 sradovich on DSK3GDR082PROD with NOTICES 43672 Federal Register / Vol. 81, No. 128 / Tuesday, July 5, 2016 / Notices notices. For more information about the NCA and access to previous NCA reports and activities, please see http:// assessment.globalchange.gov. Responses to the questions below can be entered via the Web site noted above. DATES: Comments will be accepted through July 29, 2016. ADDRESSES: Comments from the public will be accepted electronically via http://www.globalchange.gov/notices. Instructions for submitting comments are on the Web site. Submitters may enter text or upload files in response to this notice. Instructions: Response to this Request for Comment is voluntary. Respondents need not reply to all questions or topics; however, they should clearly indicate the question or topic to which they are responding. Responses may be used by the U.S. Government for program planning on a non-attribution basis. OSTP therefore requests that no business proprietary information or copyrighted information be submitted in response to this Request for Comment. Please note that the U.S. Government will not pay for response preparation, or for the use of any information contained in the response. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Emily Therese Cloyd, (202) 223–6262, ecloyd@usgcrp.gov, U.S. Global Change Research Program. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: USGCRP is mandated under the Global Change Research Act (GCRA) of 1990 to conduct a quadrennial NCA. Under its current decadal strategic plan (http:// go.usa.gov/3qGU4), USGCRP is building sustained assessment capacity to support the Nation’s ability to understand, anticipate, and respond to risks and potential impacts brought about by global environmental change, namely the human-caused buildup of greenhouse gases in our atmosphere that is causing climate change. The last NCA from 2014 (NCA3: http:// nca2014.globalchange.gov) and the process to develop it provide a foundation for subsequent activities and reports. Recent special assessments by the U.S. Government will be utilized for NCA4, including: The Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United States (https:// health2016.globalchange.gov/); Climate Change, Global Food Security, and the U.S. Food System (http:// www.usda.gov/oce/climate_change/ FoodSecurity.htm); and Effects of Drought on Forests and Rangelands in the United States (http://www.fs.fed.us/ science-technology/climate-change/ drought-forests-and-rangelands). Other VerDate Sep<11>2014 17:27 Jul 01, 2016 Jkt 238001 USGCRP special reports under development include the Second State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR–2, https://www.carboncyclescience.us/ news/federal-register-notice-2nd-statecarbon-cycle-report-soccr-2) and the Climate Science Special Report (CSSR, https://www.federalregister.gov/articles/ 2016/03/31/2016-07208/united-statesglobal-change-research-program). There will be a number of overarching themes and perspectives in NCA4 that are, in part, responsive to needs and gaps identified in NCA3. The following are likely to be such themes throughout NCA4: Æ NCA4 will attempt to highlight advancements or improvements, since NCA3, in understanding of the science of human-induced climate change and the resulting implications for the United States. Æ For risks and potential impacts, NCA4 will identify populations of concern, which was a theme highlighted in The Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United States (2016). Æ Major research needs, key uncertainties, and information gaps will be identified. Æ Current and future risks associated with climate change will be characterized with quantifiable metrics wherever possible, and with the needs of multiple audiences in mind. Æ Consistent treatment of different timeframes of interest will be sought throughout NCA4, with emphasis on the near-term (i.e., over the next few decades) trends and projections to inform adaptation needs, the long-term (i.e., latter half of this century) projections that are more scenario dependent, and in some cases timeframes well past 2100 to indicate legacy effects of the human influence on the climate and oceans. Comments are sought on these proposed overarching themes. Additional suggestions will be reviewed as they relate to the proposed structure of the report. What follows is a proposed high-level and draft annotated outline intended to guide the scope and content for NCA4. Public comments are sought on all aspects of this draft outline. The proposed outline is presented here in five parts: (1) Introduction and context for NCA4; (2) the foundational physical science; (3) human health and welfare, societal and environmental areas that are vulnerable to a changing climate; (4) regional analyses within the United States; and (5) identifying the information needed to support climate change adaptation, increased resiliency, and risk reduction. PO 00000 Frm 00103 Fmt 4703 Sfmt 4703 1. Introduction and Context for NCA4 The introductory and context-setting sections of the NCA4 will describe: Æ Context for the NCA4 as noted above, including the NCA’s relation to complementary domestic and international assessment efforts. Æ Advancements in science since NCA3 (2014), as well as any new approaches or differences in scope relative to NCA3. This information will include the special assessments completed or in-progress post-NCA3, in particular those under the auspices of USGCRP (some examples of these special assessments are provided throughout this notice). Æ Changing global and national conditions that influence (1) drivers of climate change, namely the activities that lead to emissions and thus the atmospheric buildup of greenhouse gas concentrations; and (2) resiliency and vulnerabilities, such as demographic change and economic development. Æ The geographic scope (see section 5) and the temporal scope (e.g., recent historic to next 25 to 100 years) of NCA4. The lexicon used for the confidence and uncertainty levels associated with key statements and findings (and accompanying traceable accounts) may be similar to that used in the recent climate change and human health assessment (https:// health2016.globalchange.gov/ documenting-uncertainty). 2. The Foundational Physical Science (Based on the Climate Science Special Report) The USGCRP is in the process of developing the Climate Science Special Report (CSSR). The CSSR will highlight advances in the physical science of climate change since NCA3 (2014), and will provide the primary scientific underpinnings and framing for the entire NCA4. The Federal Register Notice for the CSSR can be found at https://www.federalregister.gov/articles/ 2016/03/31/2016-07208/united-statesglobal-change-research-program. To briefly summarize here, it will generally cover: Æ Observations of changes in: Atmospheric composition, radiative forcing, temperature, precipitation, large-scale climate modes (e.g., El Nino events), drought, floods and associated hydrologic events (streamflow, snowpack), sea level rise, ice sheet dynamics, biogeochemistry of land and marine systems, climate variability, ocean acidification, extreme storms such as hurricanes, atmospheric rivers, polar changes including permafrost and land-ice dynamics, and attribution of E:\FR\FM\05JYN1.SGM 05JYN1 Federal Register / Vol. 81, No. 128 / Tuesday, July 5, 2016 / Notices sradovich on DSK3GDR082PROD with NOTICES physical and biophysical processes to human activities. Æ Future projections of changes in the aforementioned climate system processes will be based on modeling results of the Coupled Modeled Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) driven by the emissions scenarios and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) as used in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (e.g., http://sedac.ipcc-data.org/ddc/ ar5_scenario_process/RCPs.html). Future projections will include perspectives on mitigation pathways. 3. Human Health and Welfare, Societal and Environmental Vulnerabilities to a Changing Climate This section of NCA4 will provide national-level overviews of observed and projected future trends and potential effects in key areas of concern for people and the environment, including human health, social well being, and natural systems. These same areas will be addressed to varying degrees in each of the regional sections of the outline described under Part 4. Within each of these areas, nonclimatic trends (e.g., population changes) will be briefly discussed in order to set a broader context within which climate change effects can be understood. Observed and projected risks, impacts and potential benefits as a result of climate change will be identified in each of these areas, with quantifiable metrics wherever possible. The role of extreme events in each area will be addressed where possible. In addition, potential adaptive measures to minimize risks will be described for each area, to the extent these are identified in the published literature. The GCRA of 1990 requires that the NCA analyze ‘‘the effects of global change on the natural environment, agriculture, energy production and use, land and water resources, transportation, human health and welfare, human social systems, and biological diversity.’’ In addition to these mandated topics, the following additional specific areas are proposed for inclusion in NCA4: Effects on tribal and indigenous communities; coastal effects; ocean acidification and marine resources; and key international effects, particularly those that may raise environmental, humanitarian, trade, or security issues for the United States. Cross-sectoral issues where interactions can result in significant effects are also being proposed in this section of NCA4; these potentially include (but are not limited to): The water-energy-land nexus; the interactions among biodiversity, land VerDate Sep<11>2014 17:27 Jul 01, 2016 Jkt 238001 use, and climate; and linkages between air quality and climate. 4. Regional Analyses Within the United States Under this proposed outline, the regional detail for each of the areas described in Part 3 above will be placed in this section of the report. In other words, Part 3 will provide more generalized information at a national level, whereas Part 4 will go into greater depth to provide information at subnational and regional levels. NCA3 included the following regions of the United States (see http:// nca2014.globalchange.gov/ report#section-1948): Northeast, Southeast and the Caribbean, Midwest, Great Plains, Southwest, Northwest, Alaska, Hawaii and Pacific Islands, Oceans and Coasts. The proposed regional breakout for NCA4 is the same with the exception of the Great Plains; because that was such a large region, stretching from the Gulf Coast to the Canadian border, it will be divided into two regions: Northern and Southern Plains. In addition to the themes for each area described in Part 3, the regional sections in Part 4 will also include State-level information as appropriate and where available, as well as urban and rural case studies where possible to showcase, with local specificity, climate trends, potential risks, and resiliency planning. 5. Identifying the Information Needed To Support Climate Change Adaptation, Increased Resiliency, and Risk Reduction This part of NCA4 will focus on identifying near-term needs and opportunities for adaptive measures and resiliency planning in the face of observed and projected changes in climate, as well as the dependency of risk and potential impacts on greenhouse gas emissions scenarios over the longer term. NCA4 is not a policy document, and as such will not be evaluating policy measures, actions, instruments or mechanisms to deliver or incentivize either adaptation or mitigation responses at any level of government. Rather, the intention of this part of NCA4 is to inform the Nation, and different regions within the Nation, about near-term adaptation needs over the next few decades that are likely to persist regardless of emissions pathway, and, over the longer term, the reduced and/or avoided levels of risks and impacts in the United States, as a result of different levels of global greenhouse gas mitigation. PO 00000 Frm 00104 Fmt 4703 Sfmt 4703 43673 Adaptation needs and opportunities will be drawn from relevant information from Parts 2, 3 and 4 as outlined above. In addition to physical metrics of changing risks and potential impacts over time under different greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, analysis of costs of adaptation options and potential impacts (or avoided impacts) will be included where possible, in part with input from recent EPA efforts, such as the report on Climate Change in the United States: Benefits of Global Action (https://www.epa.gov/cira). Case studies and links to decisionsupport tools (e.g., the Climate Resilience Toolkit, http:// toolkit.climate.gov) will also be included here. Public comments are sought on all of the draft outline sections described above for NCA4. Stacy L. Murphy, Operations Manager/Acting Security Officer. [FR Doc. 2016–15807 Filed 7–1–16; 8:45 am] BILLING CODE 3270–F6–P SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION [Release No. 34–78179; File No. 4–700] Program for Allocation of Regulatory Responsibilities Pursuant to Rule 17– 2; Notice of Filing of Proposed Plan for the Allocation of Regulatory Responsibilities Between the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, Inc. and the Investors’ Exchange LLC June 28, 2016. Pursuant to Section 17(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (‘‘Act’’),1 and Rule 17d–2 thereunder,2 notice is hereby given that on June 20, 2016, the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, Inc. (‘‘FINRA’’) and the Investors’ Exchange LLC (‘‘IEX’’) (together with FINRA, the ‘‘Parties’’) filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (‘‘Commission’’ or ‘‘SEC’’) a plan for the allocation of regulatory responsibilities, dated June 20, 2016 (‘‘17–2 Plan’’ or the ‘‘Plan’’). The Commission is publishing this notice to solicit comments on the 17–2 Plan from interested persons. I. Introduction Section 19(g)(1) of the Act,3 among other things, requires every selfregulatory organization (‘‘SRO’’) registered as either a national securities exchange or national securities 1 15 U.S.C. 78q(d). CFR 240.17–2. 3 15 U.S.C. 78s(g)(1). 2 17 E:\FR\FM\05JYN1.SGM 05JYN1

Agencies

[Federal Register Volume 81, Number 128 (Tuesday, July 5, 2016)]
[Notices]
[Pages 43671-43673]
From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office [www.gpo.gov]
[FR Doc No: 2016-15807]


=======================================================================
-----------------------------------------------------------------------

OFFICE OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY POLICY


Public Comment on an Annotated Outline for the Fourth National 
Climate Assessment

ACTION: Notice of request for public comment.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

SUMMARY: With this notice, The U.S. Global Change Research Program 
(USGCRP) seeks public comment on the proposed content and scope of the 
Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4) as indicated by the draft 
outline presented here. A Request for Information in 2015 sought public 
input on the sustained National Climate Assessment (NCA) process more 
generally (80 FR 26105, https://federalregister.gov/a/2015-10352). The 
outline for NCA4 is informed by that previously received public input.
    General topics on which public comment is requested, in addition to 
the proposed outline, include: (1) Ways to make the assessment 
information accessible and useful to multiple audiences; (2) the 
specific types of detailed information at regional scales that would be 
most useful; (3) suggestions for how to best describe risks and 
impacts, as well as potential opportunities to reduce those risks and 
impacts on sectors of the economy as well as natural and social 
systems; (4) suggestions for new approaches to topics addressed in 
previous assessments; and (5) suggestions regarding overarching themes 
that NCA4 should consider addressing.
    A call for author nominations and technical inputs may soon be 
posted in one or more subsequent Federal Register Notices. A draft of 
NCA4 will also be released for public comment prior to its final 
release. Background information, additional details, and instructions 
for submitting comments can be found at www.globalchange.gov/

[[Page 43672]]

notices. For more information about the NCA and access to previous NCA 
reports and activities, please see http://assessment.globalchange.gov. 
Responses to the questions below can be entered via the Web site noted 
above.

DATES: Comments will be accepted through July 29, 2016.

ADDRESSES: Comments from the public will be accepted electronically via 
http://www.globalchange.gov/notices. Instructions for submitting 
comments are on the Web site. Submitters may enter text or upload files 
in response to this notice.
    Instructions: Response to this Request for Comment is voluntary. 
Respondents need not reply to all questions or topics; however, they 
should clearly indicate the question or topic to which they are 
responding. Responses may be used by the U.S. Government for program 
planning on a non-attribution basis. OSTP therefore requests that no 
business proprietary information or copyrighted information be 
submitted in response to this Request for Comment. Please note that the 
U.S. Government will not pay for response preparation, or for the use 
of any information contained in the response.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Emily Therese Cloyd, (202) 223-6262, 
ecloyd@usgcrp.gov, U.S. Global Change Research Program.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: USGCRP is mandated under the Global Change 
Research Act (GCRA) of 1990 to conduct a quadrennial NCA. Under its 
current decadal strategic plan (http://go.usa.gov/3qGU4), USGCRP is 
building sustained assessment capacity to support the Nation's ability 
to understand, anticipate, and respond to risks and potential impacts 
brought about by global environmental change, namely the human-caused 
buildup of greenhouse gases in our atmosphere that is causing climate 
change. The last NCA from 2014 (NCA3: http://nca2014.globalchange.gov) 
and the process to develop it provide a foundation for subsequent 
activities and reports.
    Recent special assessments by the U.S. Government will be utilized 
for NCA4, including: The Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in 
the United States (https://health2016.globalchange.gov/); Climate 
Change, Global Food Security, and the U.S. Food System (http://www.usda.gov/oce/climate_change/FoodSecurity.htm); and Effects of 
Drought on Forests and Rangelands in the United States (http://www.fs.fed.us/science-technology/climate-change/drought-forests-and-rangelands). Other USGCRP special reports under development include the 
Second State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR-2, https://www.carboncyclescience.us/news/federal-register-notice-2nd-state-carbon-cycle-report-soccr-2) and the Climate Science Special Report 
(CSSR, https://www.federalregister.gov/articles/2016/03/31/2016-07208/united-states-global-change-research-program).
    There will be a number of overarching themes and perspectives in 
NCA4 that are, in part, responsive to needs and gaps identified in 
NCA3. The following are likely to be such themes throughout NCA4:
    [cir] NCA4 will attempt to highlight advancements or improvements, 
since NCA3, in understanding of the science of human-induced climate 
change and the resulting implications for the United States.
    [cir] For risks and potential impacts, NCA4 will identify 
populations of concern, which was a theme highlighted in The Impacts of 
Climate Change on Human Health in the United States (2016).
    [cir] Major research needs, key uncertainties, and information gaps 
will be identified.
    [cir] Current and future risks associated with climate change will 
be characterized with quantifiable metrics wherever possible, and with 
the needs of multiple audiences in mind.
    [cir] Consistent treatment of different timeframes of interest will 
be sought throughout NCA4, with emphasis on the near-term (i.e., over 
the next few decades) trends and projections to inform adaptation 
needs, the long-term (i.e., latter half of this century) projections 
that are more scenario dependent, and in some cases timeframes well 
past 2100 to indicate legacy effects of the human influence on the 
climate and oceans.

Comments are sought on these proposed overarching themes. Additional 
suggestions will be reviewed as they relate to the proposed structure 
of the report.
    What follows is a proposed high-level and draft annotated outline 
intended to guide the scope and content for NCA4. Public comments are 
sought on all aspects of this draft outline. The proposed outline is 
presented here in five parts: (1) Introduction and context for NCA4; 
(2) the foundational physical science; (3) human health and welfare, 
societal and environmental areas that are vulnerable to a changing 
climate; (4) regional analyses within the United States; and (5) 
identifying the information needed to support climate change 
adaptation, increased resiliency, and risk reduction.

1. Introduction and Context for NCA4

    The introductory and context-setting sections of the NCA4 will 
describe:
    [cir] Context for the NCA4 as noted above, including the NCA's 
relation to complementary domestic and international assessment 
efforts.
    [cir] Advancements in science since NCA3 (2014), as well as any new 
approaches or differences in scope relative to NCA3. This information 
will include the special assessments completed or in-progress post-
NCA3, in particular those under the auspices of USGCRP (some examples 
of these special assessments are provided throughout this notice).
    [cir] Changing global and national conditions that influence (1) 
drivers of climate change, namely the activities that lead to emissions 
and thus the atmospheric buildup of greenhouse gas concentrations; and 
(2) resiliency and vulnerabilities, such as demographic change and 
economic development.
    [cir] The geographic scope (see section 5) and the temporal scope 
(e.g., recent historic to next 25 to 100 years) of NCA4. The lexicon 
used for the confidence and uncertainty levels associated with key 
statements and findings (and accompanying traceable accounts) may be 
similar to that used in the recent climate change and human health 
assessment (https://health2016.globalchange.gov/documenting-uncertainty).

2. The Foundational Physical Science (Based on the Climate Science 
Special Report)

    The USGCRP is in the process of developing the Climate Science 
Special Report (CSSR). The CSSR will highlight advances in the physical 
science of climate change since NCA3 (2014), and will provide the 
primary scientific underpinnings and framing for the entire NCA4. The 
Federal Register Notice for the CSSR can be found at https://www.federalregister.gov/articles/2016/03/31/2016-07208/united-states-global-change-research-program. To briefly summarize here, it will 
generally cover:
    [cir] Observations of changes in: Atmospheric composition, 
radiative forcing, temperature, precipitation, large-scale climate 
modes (e.g., El Nino events), drought, floods and associated hydrologic 
events (streamflow, snowpack), sea level rise, ice sheet dynamics, 
biogeochemistry of land and marine systems, climate variability, ocean 
acidification, extreme storms such as hurricanes, atmospheric rivers, 
polar changes including permafrost and land-ice dynamics, and 
attribution of

[[Page 43673]]

physical and biophysical processes to human activities.
    [cir] Future projections of changes in the aforementioned climate 
system processes will be based on modeling results of the Coupled 
Modeled Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) driven by the emissions 
scenarios and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) as used in 
the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (e.g., http://sedac.ipcc-data.org/ddc/ar5_scenario_process/RCPs.html). Future projections will include 
perspectives on mitigation pathways.

3. Human Health and Welfare, Societal and Environmental Vulnerabilities 
to a Changing Climate

    This section of NCA4 will provide national-level overviews of 
observed and projected future trends and potential effects in key areas 
of concern for people and the environment, including human health, 
social well being, and natural systems. These same areas will be 
addressed to varying degrees in each of the regional sections of the 
outline described under Part 4.
    Within each of these areas, non-climatic trends (e.g., population 
changes) will be briefly discussed in order to set a broader context 
within which climate change effects can be understood. Observed and 
projected risks, impacts and potential benefits as a result of climate 
change will be identified in each of these areas, with quantifiable 
metrics wherever possible. The role of extreme events in each area will 
be addressed where possible. In addition, potential adaptive measures 
to minimize risks will be described for each area, to the extent these 
are identified in the published literature.
    The GCRA of 1990 requires that the NCA analyze ``the effects of 
global change on the natural environment, agriculture, energy 
production and use, land and water resources, transportation, human 
health and welfare, human social systems, and biological diversity.''
    In addition to these mandated topics, the following additional 
specific areas are proposed for inclusion in NCA4: Effects on tribal 
and indigenous communities; coastal effects; ocean acidification and 
marine resources; and key international effects, particularly those 
that may raise environmental, humanitarian, trade, or security issues 
for the United States. Cross-sectoral issues where interactions can 
result in significant effects are also being proposed in this section 
of NCA4; these potentially include (but are not limited to): The water-
energy-land nexus; the interactions among biodiversity, land use, and 
climate; and linkages between air quality and climate.

4. Regional Analyses Within the United States

    Under this proposed outline, the regional detail for each of the 
areas described in Part 3 above will be placed in this section of the 
report. In other words, Part 3 will provide more generalized 
information at a national level, whereas Part 4 will go into greater 
depth to provide information at sub-national and regional levels.
    NCA3 included the following regions of the United States (see 
http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report#section-1948): Northeast, 
Southeast and the Caribbean, Midwest, Great Plains, Southwest, 
Northwest, Alaska, Hawaii and Pacific Islands, Oceans and Coasts. The 
proposed regional breakout for NCA4 is the same with the exception of 
the Great Plains; because that was such a large region, stretching from 
the Gulf Coast to the Canadian border, it will be divided into two 
regions: Northern and Southern Plains.
    In addition to the themes for each area described in Part 3, the 
regional sections in Part 4 will also include State-level information 
as appropriate and where available, as well as urban and rural case 
studies where possible to showcase, with local specificity, climate 
trends, potential risks, and resiliency planning.

5. Identifying the Information Needed To Support Climate Change 
Adaptation, Increased Resiliency, and Risk Reduction

    This part of NCA4 will focus on identifying near-term needs and 
opportunities for adaptive measures and resiliency planning in the face 
of observed and projected changes in climate, as well as the dependency 
of risk and potential impacts on greenhouse gas emissions scenarios 
over the longer term. NCA4 is not a policy document, and as such will 
not be evaluating policy measures, actions, instruments or mechanisms 
to deliver or incentivize either adaptation or mitigation responses at 
any level of government. Rather, the intention of this part of NCA4 is 
to inform the Nation, and different regions within the Nation, about 
near-term adaptation needs over the next few decades that are likely to 
persist regardless of emissions pathway, and, over the longer term, the 
reduced and/or avoided levels of risks and impacts in the United 
States, as a result of different levels of global greenhouse gas 
mitigation.
    Adaptation needs and opportunities will be drawn from relevant 
information from Parts 2, 3 and 4 as outlined above.
    In addition to physical metrics of changing risks and potential 
impacts over time under different greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, 
analysis of costs of adaptation options and potential impacts (or 
avoided impacts) will be included where possible, in part with input 
from recent EPA efforts, such as the report on Climate Change in the 
United States: Benefits of Global Action (https://www.epa.gov/cira).
    Case studies and links to decision-support tools (e.g., the Climate 
Resilience Toolkit, http://toolkit.climate.gov) will also be included 
here.
    Public comments are sought on all of the draft outline sections 
described above for NCA4.

Stacy L. Murphy,
Operations Manager/Acting Security Officer.
[FR Doc. 2016-15807 Filed 7-1-16; 8:45 am]
 BILLING CODE 3270-F6-P