Public Comment on an Annotated Outline for the Fourth National Climate Assessment, 43671-43673 [2016-15807]
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43671
Federal Register / Vol. 81, No. 128 / Tuesday, July 5, 2016 / Notices
for establishing disability and proof of
continuing disability under the RRA are
prescribed in 20 CFR 220.
Annuities are also payable to (1)
qualified spouses and widow(ers) under
sections 2(c)(1)(ii)(C) and 2(d)(1)(ii) of
the RRA who have a qualifying child
who became disabled before age 22; (2)
surviving children on the basis of
disability under section 2(d)(1)(iii)(C), if
the child’s disability began before age
22; and (3) widow(er)s on the basis of
disability under section 2(d)(1)(i)(B). To
meet the disability standard, the RRA
provides that individuals must have a
permanent physical or mental condition
that makes them unable to engage in any
regular employment.
Under section 2(d)(1)(v) of the RRA,
annuities are also payable to remarried
widow(er)s and surviving divorced
spouses on the basis of, among other
things, disability or having a qualifying
disabled child in care. However, the
disability standard in these cases is that
found in the Social Security Act. That
is, individuals must be unable to engage
in any substantial gainful activity by
reason of any medically determinable
physical or mental impairment. The
RRB also determines entitlement to a
Period of Disability and entitlement to
early Medicare based on disability for
qualified claimants in accordance with
Section 216 of the Social Security Act.
When making disability
determinations, the RRB needs evidence
from acceptable medical sources. The
RRB currently utilizes Forms G–3EMP,
Report of Medical Condition by
Employer; G–197, Authorization to
Disclose Information to the Railroad
Retirement Board; G–250, Medical
Assessment; G–250A, Medical
Assessment of Residual Functional
Capacity; G–260, Report of Seizure
Disorder; RL–11B, Disclosure of
Hospital Medical Records; RL–11D,
Disclosure of Medical Records from a
State Agency; and RL–250, Request for
Medical Assessment, to obtain the
necessary medical evidence. The RRB
proposes no revisions to these forms.
In support of the RRB’s Disability
Program Improvement Project to
enhance/improve disability case
processing and overall program
integrity, the RRB proposes the addition
of proposed Form RL–11D1, Request for
Medical Evidence from Employers, to
the information collection. Form RL–
11D1 will be mailed by an RRB field
office to railroad and nonrailroad
employers to obtain any medical
evidence regarding the employee’s
disability that they may have acquired
within the last 18 months. A copy of the
employee signed Form G–197 will be
enclosed with the RL–11D1. The
employer will return the RL–11D1 to
RRB Headquarters certifying that they
either have submitted the requested
medical evidence or that they have no
medical evidence to submit. One
response is requested of each
respondent. Completion is voluntary.
ESTIMATE OF ANNUAL RESPONDENT BURDEN
Annual
responses
Form No.
Time
(minutes)
Burden
(hours)
G–3EMP ......................................................................................................................................
G–197 ..........................................................................................................................................
G–250 ..........................................................................................................................................
G–250A ........................................................................................................................................
G–260 ..........................................................................................................................................
RL–11B ........................................................................................................................................
RL–11D ........................................................................................................................................
RL–11D1 ......................................................................................................................................
RL–250 ........................................................................................................................................
600
6,000
11,950
50
100
5,000
250
600
11,950
10
10
30
20
25
10
10
20
10
100
1,000
5,975
17
42
833
42
200
1,992
Total ......................................................................................................................................
36,500
........................
10,201
sradovich on DSK3GDR082PROD with NOTICES
Additional Information or Comments:
To request more information or to
obtain a copy of the information
collection justification, forms, and/or
supporting material, contact Dana
Hickman at (312) 751–4981 or
Dana.Hickman@RRB.GOV. Comments
regarding the information collection
should be addressed to Charles
Mierzwa, Railroad Retirement Board,
844 North Rush Street, Chicago, Illinois
60611–2092 or emailed to
Charles.Mierzwa@RRB.GOV. Written
comments should be received within 60
days of this notice.
Charles Mierzwa,
Chief of Information Resources Management.
[FR Doc. 2016–15887 Filed 7–1–16; 8:45 am]
BILLING CODE 7905–01–P
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OFFICE OF SCIENCE AND
TECHNOLOGY POLICY
Public Comment on an Annotated
Outline for the Fourth National Climate
Assessment
Notice of request for public
comment.
ACTION:
With this notice, The U.S.
Global Change Research Program
(USGCRP) seeks public comment on the
proposed content and scope of the
Fourth National Climate Assessment
(NCA4) as indicated by the draft outline
presented here. A Request for
Information in 2015 sought public input
on the sustained National Climate
Assessment (NCA) process more
generally (80 FR 26105, https://
federalregister.gov/a/2015-10352). The
outline for NCA4 is informed by that
previously received public input.
General topics on which public
comment is requested, in addition to the
SUMMARY:
PO 00000
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Fmt 4703
Sfmt 4703
proposed outline, include: (1) Ways to
make the assessment information
accessible and useful to multiple
audiences; (2) the specific types of
detailed information at regional scales
that would be most useful; (3)
suggestions for how to best describe
risks and impacts, as well as potential
opportunities to reduce those risks and
impacts on sectors of the economy as
well as natural and social systems; (4)
suggestions for new approaches to
topics addressed in previous
assessments; and (5) suggestions
regarding overarching themes that
NCA4 should consider addressing.
A call for author nominations and
technical inputs may soon be posted in
one or more subsequent Federal
Register Notices. A draft of NCA4 will
also be released for public comment
prior to its final release. Background
information, additional details, and
instructions for submitting comments
can be found at www.globalchange.gov/
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sradovich on DSK3GDR082PROD with NOTICES
43672
Federal Register / Vol. 81, No. 128 / Tuesday, July 5, 2016 / Notices
notices. For more information about the
NCA and access to previous NCA
reports and activities, please see https://
assessment.globalchange.gov.
Responses to the questions below can be
entered via the Web site noted above.
DATES: Comments will be accepted
through July 29, 2016.
ADDRESSES: Comments from the public
will be accepted electronically via
https://www.globalchange.gov/notices.
Instructions for submitting comments
are on the Web site. Submitters may
enter text or upload files in response to
this notice.
Instructions: Response to this Request
for Comment is voluntary. Respondents
need not reply to all questions or topics;
however, they should clearly indicate
the question or topic to which they are
responding. Responses may be used by
the U.S. Government for program
planning on a non-attribution basis.
OSTP therefore requests that no
business proprietary information or
copyrighted information be submitted in
response to this Request for Comment.
Please note that the U.S. Government
will not pay for response preparation, or
for the use of any information contained
in the response.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT:
Emily Therese Cloyd, (202) 223–6262,
ecloyd@usgcrp.gov, U.S. Global Change
Research Program.
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: USGCRP
is mandated under the Global Change
Research Act (GCRA) of 1990 to conduct
a quadrennial NCA. Under its current
decadal strategic plan (https://
go.usa.gov/3qGU4), USGCRP is building
sustained assessment capacity to
support the Nation’s ability to
understand, anticipate, and respond to
risks and potential impacts brought
about by global environmental change,
namely the human-caused buildup of
greenhouse gases in our atmosphere that
is causing climate change. The last NCA
from 2014 (NCA3: https://
nca2014.globalchange.gov) and the
process to develop it provide a
foundation for subsequent activities and
reports.
Recent special assessments by the
U.S. Government will be utilized for
NCA4, including: The Impacts of
Climate Change on Human Health in the
United States (https://
health2016.globalchange.gov/); Climate
Change, Global Food Security, and the
U.S. Food System (https://
www.usda.gov/oce/climate_change/
FoodSecurity.htm); and Effects of
Drought on Forests and Rangelands in
the United States (https://www.fs.fed.us/
science-technology/climate-change/
drought-forests-and-rangelands). Other
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USGCRP special reports under
development include the Second State
of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR–2,
https://www.carboncyclescience.us/
news/federal-register-notice-2nd-statecarbon-cycle-report-soccr-2) and the
Climate Science Special Report (CSSR,
https://www.federalregister.gov/articles/
2016/03/31/2016-07208/united-statesglobal-change-research-program).
There will be a number of overarching
themes and perspectives in NCA4 that
are, in part, responsive to needs and
gaps identified in NCA3. The following
are likely to be such themes throughout
NCA4:
Æ NCA4 will attempt to highlight
advancements or improvements, since
NCA3, in understanding of the science
of human-induced climate change and
the resulting implications for the United
States.
Æ For risks and potential impacts,
NCA4 will identify populations of
concern, which was a theme highlighted
in The Impacts of Climate Change on
Human Health in the United States
(2016).
Æ Major research needs, key
uncertainties, and information gaps will
be identified.
Æ Current and future risks associated
with climate change will be
characterized with quantifiable metrics
wherever possible, and with the needs
of multiple audiences in mind.
Æ Consistent treatment of different
timeframes of interest will be sought
throughout NCA4, with emphasis on the
near-term (i.e., over the next few
decades) trends and projections to
inform adaptation needs, the long-term
(i.e., latter half of this century)
projections that are more scenario
dependent, and in some cases
timeframes well past 2100 to indicate
legacy effects of the human influence on
the climate and oceans.
Comments are sought on these proposed
overarching themes. Additional
suggestions will be reviewed as they
relate to the proposed structure of the
report.
What follows is a proposed high-level
and draft annotated outline intended to
guide the scope and content for NCA4.
Public comments are sought on all
aspects of this draft outline. The
proposed outline is presented here in
five parts: (1) Introduction and context
for NCA4; (2) the foundational physical
science; (3) human health and welfare,
societal and environmental areas that
are vulnerable to a changing climate; (4)
regional analyses within the United
States; and (5) identifying the
information needed to support climate
change adaptation, increased resiliency,
and risk reduction.
PO 00000
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1. Introduction and Context for NCA4
The introductory and context-setting
sections of the NCA4 will describe:
Æ Context for the NCA4 as noted
above, including the NCA’s relation to
complementary domestic and
international assessment efforts.
Æ Advancements in science since
NCA3 (2014), as well as any new
approaches or differences in scope
relative to NCA3. This information will
include the special assessments
completed or in-progress post-NCA3, in
particular those under the auspices of
USGCRP (some examples of these
special assessments are provided
throughout this notice).
Æ Changing global and national
conditions that influence (1) drivers of
climate change, namely the activities
that lead to emissions and thus the
atmospheric buildup of greenhouse gas
concentrations; and (2) resiliency and
vulnerabilities, such as demographic
change and economic development.
Æ The geographic scope (see section
5) and the temporal scope (e.g., recent
historic to next 25 to 100 years) of
NCA4. The lexicon used for the
confidence and uncertainty levels
associated with key statements and
findings (and accompanying traceable
accounts) may be similar to that used in
the recent climate change and human
health assessment (https://
health2016.globalchange.gov/
documenting-uncertainty).
2. The Foundational Physical Science
(Based on the Climate Science Special
Report)
The USGCRP is in the process of
developing the Climate Science Special
Report (CSSR). The CSSR will highlight
advances in the physical science of
climate change since NCA3 (2014), and
will provide the primary scientific
underpinnings and framing for the
entire NCA4. The Federal Register
Notice for the CSSR can be found at
https://www.federalregister.gov/articles/
2016/03/31/2016-07208/united-statesglobal-change-research-program. To
briefly summarize here, it will generally
cover:
Æ Observations of changes in:
Atmospheric composition, radiative
forcing, temperature, precipitation,
large-scale climate modes (e.g., El Nino
events), drought, floods and associated
hydrologic events (streamflow,
snowpack), sea level rise, ice sheet
dynamics, biogeochemistry of land and
marine systems, climate variability,
ocean acidification, extreme storms
such as hurricanes, atmospheric rivers,
polar changes including permafrost and
land-ice dynamics, and attribution of
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Federal Register / Vol. 81, No. 128 / Tuesday, July 5, 2016 / Notices
sradovich on DSK3GDR082PROD with NOTICES
physical and biophysical processes to
human activities.
Æ Future projections of changes in the
aforementioned climate system
processes will be based on modeling
results of the Coupled Modeled
Intercomparison Project Phase 5
(CMIP5) driven by the emissions
scenarios and Representative
Concentration Pathways (RCPs) as used
in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
(e.g., https://sedac.ipcc-data.org/ddc/
ar5_scenario_process/RCPs.html).
Future projections will include
perspectives on mitigation pathways.
3. Human Health and Welfare, Societal
and Environmental Vulnerabilities to a
Changing Climate
This section of NCA4 will provide
national-level overviews of observed
and projected future trends and
potential effects in key areas of concern
for people and the environment,
including human health, social well
being, and natural systems. These same
areas will be addressed to varying
degrees in each of the regional sections
of the outline described under Part 4.
Within each of these areas, nonclimatic trends (e.g., population
changes) will be briefly discussed in
order to set a broader context within
which climate change effects can be
understood. Observed and projected
risks, impacts and potential benefits as
a result of climate change will be
identified in each of these areas, with
quantifiable metrics wherever possible.
The role of extreme events in each area
will be addressed where possible. In
addition, potential adaptive measures to
minimize risks will be described for
each area, to the extent these are
identified in the published literature.
The GCRA of 1990 requires that the
NCA analyze ‘‘the effects of global
change on the natural environment,
agriculture, energy production and use,
land and water resources,
transportation, human health and
welfare, human social systems, and
biological diversity.’’
In addition to these mandated topics,
the following additional specific areas
are proposed for inclusion in NCA4:
Effects on tribal and indigenous
communities; coastal effects; ocean
acidification and marine resources; and
key international effects, particularly
those that may raise environmental,
humanitarian, trade, or security issues
for the United States. Cross-sectoral
issues where interactions can result in
significant effects are also being
proposed in this section of NCA4; these
potentially include (but are not limited
to): The water-energy-land nexus; the
interactions among biodiversity, land
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use, and climate; and linkages between
air quality and climate.
4. Regional Analyses Within the United
States
Under this proposed outline, the
regional detail for each of the areas
described in Part 3 above will be placed
in this section of the report. In other
words, Part 3 will provide more
generalized information at a national
level, whereas Part 4 will go into greater
depth to provide information at subnational and regional levels.
NCA3 included the following regions
of the United States (see https://
nca2014.globalchange.gov/
report#section-1948): Northeast,
Southeast and the Caribbean, Midwest,
Great Plains, Southwest, Northwest,
Alaska, Hawaii and Pacific Islands,
Oceans and Coasts. The proposed
regional breakout for NCA4 is the same
with the exception of the Great Plains;
because that was such a large region,
stretching from the Gulf Coast to the
Canadian border, it will be divided into
two regions: Northern and Southern
Plains.
In addition to the themes for each area
described in Part 3, the regional sections
in Part 4 will also include State-level
information as appropriate and where
available, as well as urban and rural
case studies where possible to
showcase, with local specificity, climate
trends, potential risks, and resiliency
planning.
5. Identifying the Information Needed
To Support Climate Change
Adaptation, Increased Resiliency, and
Risk Reduction
This part of NCA4 will focus on
identifying near-term needs and
opportunities for adaptive measures and
resiliency planning in the face of
observed and projected changes in
climate, as well as the dependency of
risk and potential impacts on
greenhouse gas emissions scenarios over
the longer term. NCA4 is not a policy
document, and as such will not be
evaluating policy measures, actions,
instruments or mechanisms to deliver or
incentivize either adaptation or
mitigation responses at any level of
government. Rather, the intention of this
part of NCA4 is to inform the Nation,
and different regions within the Nation,
about near-term adaptation needs over
the next few decades that are likely to
persist regardless of emissions pathway,
and, over the longer term, the reduced
and/or avoided levels of risks and
impacts in the United States, as a result
of different levels of global greenhouse
gas mitigation.
PO 00000
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43673
Adaptation needs and opportunities
will be drawn from relevant information
from Parts 2, 3 and 4 as outlined above.
In addition to physical metrics of
changing risks and potential impacts
over time under different greenhouse
gas emissions scenarios, analysis of
costs of adaptation options and
potential impacts (or avoided impacts)
will be included where possible, in part
with input from recent EPA efforts, such
as the report on Climate Change in the
United States: Benefits of Global Action
(https://www.epa.gov/cira).
Case studies and links to decisionsupport tools (e.g., the Climate
Resilience Toolkit, https://
toolkit.climate.gov) will also be
included here.
Public comments are sought on all of
the draft outline sections described
above for NCA4.
Stacy L. Murphy,
Operations Manager/Acting Security Officer.
[FR Doc. 2016–15807 Filed 7–1–16; 8:45 am]
BILLING CODE 3270–F6–P
SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE
COMMISSION
[Release No. 34–78179; File No. 4–700]
Program for Allocation of Regulatory
Responsibilities Pursuant to Rule 17–
2; Notice of Filing of Proposed Plan for
the Allocation of Regulatory
Responsibilities Between the Financial
Industry Regulatory Authority, Inc. and
the Investors’ Exchange LLC
June 28, 2016.
Pursuant to Section 17(d) of the
Securities Exchange Act of 1934
(‘‘Act’’),1 and Rule 17d–2 thereunder,2
notice is hereby given that on June 20,
2016, the Financial Industry Regulatory
Authority, Inc. (‘‘FINRA’’) and the
Investors’ Exchange LLC (‘‘IEX’’)
(together with FINRA, the ‘‘Parties’’)
filed with the Securities and Exchange
Commission (‘‘Commission’’ or ‘‘SEC’’)
a plan for the allocation of regulatory
responsibilities, dated June 20, 2016
(‘‘17–2 Plan’’ or the ‘‘Plan’’). The
Commission is publishing this notice to
solicit comments on the 17–2 Plan from
interested persons.
I. Introduction
Section 19(g)(1) of the Act,3 among
other things, requires every selfregulatory organization (‘‘SRO’’)
registered as either a national securities
exchange or national securities
1 15
U.S.C. 78q(d).
CFR 240.17–2.
3 15 U.S.C. 78s(g)(1).
2 17
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]]>Agencies
[Federal Register Volume 81, Number 128 (Tuesday, July 5, 2016)]
[Notices]
[Pages 43671-43673]
From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office [www.gpo.gov]
[FR Doc No: 2016-15807]
=======================================================================
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
OFFICE OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY POLICY
Public Comment on an Annotated Outline for the Fourth National
Climate Assessment
ACTION: Notice of request for public comment.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
SUMMARY: With this notice, The U.S. Global Change Research Program
(USGCRP) seeks public comment on the proposed content and scope of the
Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4) as indicated by the draft
outline presented here. A Request for Information in 2015 sought public
input on the sustained National Climate Assessment (NCA) process more
generally (80 FR 26105, https://federalregister.gov/a/2015-10352). The
outline for NCA4 is informed by that previously received public input.
General topics on which public comment is requested, in addition to
the proposed outline, include: (1) Ways to make the assessment
information accessible and useful to multiple audiences; (2) the
specific types of detailed information at regional scales that would be
most useful; (3) suggestions for how to best describe risks and
impacts, as well as potential opportunities to reduce those risks and
impacts on sectors of the economy as well as natural and social
systems; (4) suggestions for new approaches to topics addressed in
previous assessments; and (5) suggestions regarding overarching themes
that NCA4 should consider addressing.
A call for author nominations and technical inputs may soon be
posted in one or more subsequent Federal Register Notices. A draft of
NCA4 will also be released for public comment prior to its final
release. Background information, additional details, and instructions
for submitting comments can be found at www.globalchange.gov/
[[Page 43672]]
notices. For more information about the NCA and access to previous NCA
reports and activities, please see https://assessment.globalchange.gov.
Responses to the questions below can be entered via the Web site noted
above.
DATES: Comments will be accepted through July 29, 2016.
ADDRESSES: Comments from the public will be accepted electronically via
https://www.globalchange.gov/notices. Instructions for submitting
comments are on the Web site. Submitters may enter text or upload files
in response to this notice.
Instructions: Response to this Request for Comment is voluntary.
Respondents need not reply to all questions or topics; however, they
should clearly indicate the question or topic to which they are
responding. Responses may be used by the U.S. Government for program
planning on a non-attribution basis. OSTP therefore requests that no
business proprietary information or copyrighted information be
submitted in response to this Request for Comment. Please note that the
U.S. Government will not pay for response preparation, or for the use
of any information contained in the response.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Emily Therese Cloyd, (202) 223-6262,
ecloyd@usgcrp.gov, U.S. Global Change Research Program.
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: USGCRP is mandated under the Global Change
Research Act (GCRA) of 1990 to conduct a quadrennial NCA. Under its
current decadal strategic plan (https://go.usa.gov/3qGU4), USGCRP is
building sustained assessment capacity to support the Nation's ability
to understand, anticipate, and respond to risks and potential impacts
brought about by global environmental change, namely the human-caused
buildup of greenhouse gases in our atmosphere that is causing climate
change. The last NCA from 2014 (NCA3: https://nca2014.globalchange.gov)
and the process to develop it provide a foundation for subsequent
activities and reports.
Recent special assessments by the U.S. Government will be utilized
for NCA4, including: The Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in
the United States (https://health2016.globalchange.gov/); Climate
Change, Global Food Security, and the U.S. Food System (https://www.usda.gov/oce/climate_change/FoodSecurity.htm); and Effects of
Drought on Forests and Rangelands in the United States (https://www.fs.fed.us/science-technology/climate-change/drought-forests-and-rangelands). Other USGCRP special reports under development include the
Second State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR-2, https://www.carboncyclescience.us/news/federal-register-notice-2nd-state-carbon-cycle-report-soccr-2) and the Climate Science Special Report
(CSSR, https://www.federalregister.gov/articles/2016/03/31/2016-07208/united-states-global-change-research-program).
There will be a number of overarching themes and perspectives in
NCA4 that are, in part, responsive to needs and gaps identified in
NCA3. The following are likely to be such themes throughout NCA4:
[cir] NCA4 will attempt to highlight advancements or improvements,
since NCA3, in understanding of the science of human-induced climate
change and the resulting implications for the United States.
[cir] For risks and potential impacts, NCA4 will identify
populations of concern, which was a theme highlighted in The Impacts of
Climate Change on Human Health in the United States (2016).
[cir] Major research needs, key uncertainties, and information gaps
will be identified.
[cir] Current and future risks associated with climate change will
be characterized with quantifiable metrics wherever possible, and with
the needs of multiple audiences in mind.
[cir] Consistent treatment of different timeframes of interest will
be sought throughout NCA4, with emphasis on the near-term (i.e., over
the next few decades) trends and projections to inform adaptation
needs, the long-term (i.e., latter half of this century) projections
that are more scenario dependent, and in some cases timeframes well
past 2100 to indicate legacy effects of the human influence on the
climate and oceans.
Comments are sought on these proposed overarching themes. Additional
suggestions will be reviewed as they relate to the proposed structure
of the report.
What follows is a proposed high-level and draft annotated outline
intended to guide the scope and content for NCA4. Public comments are
sought on all aspects of this draft outline. The proposed outline is
presented here in five parts: (1) Introduction and context for NCA4;
(2) the foundational physical science; (3) human health and welfare,
societal and environmental areas that are vulnerable to a changing
climate; (4) regional analyses within the United States; and (5)
identifying the information needed to support climate change
adaptation, increased resiliency, and risk reduction.
1. Introduction and Context for NCA4
The introductory and context-setting sections of the NCA4 will
describe:
[cir] Context for the NCA4 as noted above, including the NCA's
relation to complementary domestic and international assessment
efforts.
[cir] Advancements in science since NCA3 (2014), as well as any new
approaches or differences in scope relative to NCA3. This information
will include the special assessments completed or in-progress post-
NCA3, in particular those under the auspices of USGCRP (some examples
of these special assessments are provided throughout this notice).
[cir] Changing global and national conditions that influence (1)
drivers of climate change, namely the activities that lead to emissions
and thus the atmospheric buildup of greenhouse gas concentrations; and
(2) resiliency and vulnerabilities, such as demographic change and
economic development.
[cir] The geographic scope (see section 5) and the temporal scope
(e.g., recent historic to next 25 to 100 years) of NCA4. The lexicon
used for the confidence and uncertainty levels associated with key
statements and findings (and accompanying traceable accounts) may be
similar to that used in the recent climate change and human health
assessment (https://health2016.globalchange.gov/documenting-uncertainty).
2. The Foundational Physical Science (Based on the Climate Science
Special Report)
The USGCRP is in the process of developing the Climate Science
Special Report (CSSR). The CSSR will highlight advances in the physical
science of climate change since NCA3 (2014), and will provide the
primary scientific underpinnings and framing for the entire NCA4. The
Federal Register Notice for the CSSR can be found at https://www.federalregister.gov/articles/2016/03/31/2016-07208/united-states-global-change-research-program. To briefly summarize here, it will
generally cover:
[cir] Observations of changes in: Atmospheric composition,
radiative forcing, temperature, precipitation, large-scale climate
modes (e.g., El Nino events), drought, floods and associated hydrologic
events (streamflow, snowpack), sea level rise, ice sheet dynamics,
biogeochemistry of land and marine systems, climate variability, ocean
acidification, extreme storms such as hurricanes, atmospheric rivers,
polar changes including permafrost and land-ice dynamics, and
attribution of
[[Page 43673]]
physical and biophysical processes to human activities.
[cir] Future projections of changes in the aforementioned climate
system processes will be based on modeling results of the Coupled
Modeled Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) driven by the emissions
scenarios and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) as used in
the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (e.g., https://sedac.ipcc-data.org/ddc/ar5_scenario_process/RCPs.html). Future projections will include
perspectives on mitigation pathways.
3. Human Health and Welfare, Societal and Environmental Vulnerabilities
to a Changing Climate
This section of NCA4 will provide national-level overviews of
observed and projected future trends and potential effects in key areas
of concern for people and the environment, including human health,
social well being, and natural systems. These same areas will be
addressed to varying degrees in each of the regional sections of the
outline described under Part 4.
Within each of these areas, non-climatic trends (e.g., population
changes) will be briefly discussed in order to set a broader context
within which climate change effects can be understood. Observed and
projected risks, impacts and potential benefits as a result of climate
change will be identified in each of these areas, with quantifiable
metrics wherever possible. The role of extreme events in each area will
be addressed where possible. In addition, potential adaptive measures
to minimize risks will be described for each area, to the extent these
are identified in the published literature.
The GCRA of 1990 requires that the NCA analyze ``the effects of
global change on the natural environment, agriculture, energy
production and use, land and water resources, transportation, human
health and welfare, human social systems, and biological diversity.''
In addition to these mandated topics, the following additional
specific areas are proposed for inclusion in NCA4: Effects on tribal
and indigenous communities; coastal effects; ocean acidification and
marine resources; and key international effects, particularly those
that may raise environmental, humanitarian, trade, or security issues
for the United States. Cross-sectoral issues where interactions can
result in significant effects are also being proposed in this section
of NCA4; these potentially include (but are not limited to): The water-
energy-land nexus; the interactions among biodiversity, land use, and
climate; and linkages between air quality and climate.
4. Regional Analyses Within the United States
Under this proposed outline, the regional detail for each of the
areas described in Part 3 above will be placed in this section of the
report. In other words, Part 3 will provide more generalized
information at a national level, whereas Part 4 will go into greater
depth to provide information at sub-national and regional levels.
NCA3 included the following regions of the United States (see
https://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report#section-1948): Northeast,
Southeast and the Caribbean, Midwest, Great Plains, Southwest,
Northwest, Alaska, Hawaii and Pacific Islands, Oceans and Coasts. The
proposed regional breakout for NCA4 is the same with the exception of
the Great Plains; because that was such a large region, stretching from
the Gulf Coast to the Canadian border, it will be divided into two
regions: Northern and Southern Plains.
In addition to the themes for each area described in Part 3, the
regional sections in Part 4 will also include State-level information
as appropriate and where available, as well as urban and rural case
studies where possible to showcase, with local specificity, climate
trends, potential risks, and resiliency planning.
5. Identifying the Information Needed To Support Climate Change
Adaptation, Increased Resiliency, and Risk Reduction
This part of NCA4 will focus on identifying near-term needs and
opportunities for adaptive measures and resiliency planning in the face
of observed and projected changes in climate, as well as the dependency
of risk and potential impacts on greenhouse gas emissions scenarios
over the longer term. NCA4 is not a policy document, and as such will
not be evaluating policy measures, actions, instruments or mechanisms
to deliver or incentivize either adaptation or mitigation responses at
any level of government. Rather, the intention of this part of NCA4 is
to inform the Nation, and different regions within the Nation, about
near-term adaptation needs over the next few decades that are likely to
persist regardless of emissions pathway, and, over the longer term, the
reduced and/or avoided levels of risks and impacts in the United
States, as a result of different levels of global greenhouse gas
mitigation.
Adaptation needs and opportunities will be drawn from relevant
information from Parts 2, 3 and 4 as outlined above.
In addition to physical metrics of changing risks and potential
impacts over time under different greenhouse gas emissions scenarios,
analysis of costs of adaptation options and potential impacts (or
avoided impacts) will be included where possible, in part with input
from recent EPA efforts, such as the report on Climate Change in the
United States: Benefits of Global Action (https://www.epa.gov/cira).
Case studies and links to decision-support tools (e.g., the Climate
Resilience Toolkit, https://toolkit.climate.gov) will also be included
here.
Public comments are sought on all of the draft outline sections
described above for NCA4.
Stacy L. Murphy,
Operations Manager/Acting Security Officer.
[FR Doc. 2016-15807 Filed 7-1-16; 8:45 am]
BILLING CODE 3270-F6-P
