Energy Conservation Standards for Commercial and Industrial Fans and Blowers: Availability of Provisional Analysis Tools, 24841-24846 [2015-10036]
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Federal Register / Vol. 80, No. 84 / Friday, May 1, 2015 / Proposed Rules
regulations, may exempt individual
nonhuman primates from the plan for
scientific reasons, provided these
reasons are set forth in a research
proposal and reviewed by the IACUC.
On May 7, 2014, APHIS received a
petition submitted jointly by the New
England Anti-Vivisection Society, the
North American Primate Sanctuary
Alliance, the Laboratory Primate
Advocacy Group, and the Animal Legal
Defense Fund requesting that we initiate
rulemaking to amend the AWA
regulations. Specifically, the petition
asks that we amend § 3.81 to require
that research facilities construct and
maintain an ethologically appropriate
environment for nonhuman primates
housed at the facilities, that is, an
environment that is appropriate with
respect to the patterns of behavior
exhibited by the nonhuman primates in
their natural state. The petition also asks
that we amend § 3.81 to specify
minimum standards that must be met in
order for an environment to be
considered ethologically appropriate.
The petition cites standards recently
adopted by the National Institutes of
Health (NIH) for chimpanzees used in
NIH-funded research as a reference
point for the development of such
generally applicable minimum
standards and as evidence of their
feasibility.
The petition agrees that the intent of
§ 3.81 of the AWA regulations is to
ensure that the environment provided to
nonhuman primates housed at research
facilities promotes the psychological
well-being of the primates. The petition
suggests, however, that because of
ambiguities in the current regulations,
research facilities have broad discretion
regarding the actual environment
provided to nonhuman primates at their
facilities, and can meet the requirements
in § 3.81 without actually meeting their
intent.
The petition states that, by amending
the AWA regulations in the manner that
the petitioners suggest, we would
remove these ambiguities and facilitate
regulatory compliance.
We are making this petition available
to the public and soliciting comments to
help determine what action, if any, to
take in response to this request. The
petition and any comments submitted
are available for review as indicated
under ADDRESSES above. We welcome
all comments on the issues outlined in
the petition. In particular, we invite
responses to the following questions:
1. Should APHIS amend § 3.81 of the
AWA regulations to require research
facilities to construct and maintain an
ethologically appropriate environment
for nonhuman primates, and specify the
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minimum standards that must be met
for an environment to be considered
ethologically appropriate?
2. What constitutes an ethologically
appropriate environment for a
nonhuman primate? Does this differ
among species of nonhuman primates?
If so, how does it differ?
3. Are there any environmental
conditions that make an environment
ethologically inappropriate for a
nonhuman primate? If so, what are
they? Do they differ among species of
nonhuman primates?
4. Does an ethologically appropriate
environment for nonhuman primates
used in research differ from an
ethologically appropriate environment
for nonhuman primates that are sold or
exhibited? If so, in what ways does it
differ?
5. Who should make the
determination regarding the ethological
appropriateness of the environment for
nonhuman primates at a particular
research facility: The attending
veterinarian for the facility, APHIS, or
both parties? If both parties should
jointly make such a determination,
which responsibilities should fall to the
attending veterinarian and which to
APHIS?
We encourage the submission of
scientific data, studies, or research to
support your comments and position.
We also invite data on the costs and
benefits associated with any
recommendations. We will consider all
comments and recommendations
received.
Authority: 7 U.S.C. 2131–2159; 7 CFR 2.22,
2.80, and 371.7.
Done in Washington, DC, this 27th day of
April 2015.
Kevin Shea,
Administrator, Animal and Plant Health
Inspection Service.
[FR Doc. 2015–10195 Filed 4–30–15; 8:45 am]
BILLING CODE 3410–34–P
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
10 CFR Part 431
[Docket No. EERE–2013–BT–STD–0006]
RIN 1904–AC55
Energy Conservation Standards for
Commercial and Industrial Fans and
Blowers: Availability of Provisional
Analysis Tools
Office of Energy Efficiency and
Renewable Energy, Department of
Energy.
ACTION: Notice of Data Availability.
AGENCY:
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24841
The U.S. Department of
Energy (DOE) has completed a
provisional analysis of the potential
economic impacts and energy savings
that could result from promulgating an
energy conservation standard for
commercial and industrial fans and
blowers. This analysis incorporates
information and comments received
after the completion of an analysis
presented in a notice of data availability
(NODA) published in December 2014.
At this time, DOE is not proposing an
energy conservation standard for
commercial and industrial fans and
blowers. This analysis may be used in
support of the Appliance Standards
Federal Rulemaking Advisory
Committee (ASRAC) commercial and
industrial fans working group
negotiations to develop a
recommendation for regulating
commercial and industrial fans. DOE
encourages stakeholders to provide any
additional data or information that may
improve the analysis and to present
comments submitted to this NODA and
to the NODA published in December
2014 to the working group.
DATES: Information is available as of
May 1, 2015.
ADDRESSES: The analysis for this NODA
is available at: https://www1.eere.energy.
gov/buildings/appliance_standards/
rulemaking.aspx?ruleid=25.
Interested persons are encouraged to
submit comments using the Federal
eRulemaking Portal at: https://
www.regulations.gov. Follow the
instructions for submitting comments.
Alternatively, interested persons may
submit comments, identified by Docket
number EERE–2013–BT–STD–0006, by
any of the following methods:
(1) Email: to CIFB2013STD0006@
ee.doe.gov. Include EERE–2013–BT–
STD–0006 in the subject line of the
message. Submit electronic comments
in WordPerfect, Microsoft Word, PDF,
or ASCII file format, and avoid the use
of special characters or any form of
encryption.
(2) Mail: Ms. Brenda Edwards, U.S.
Department of Energy, Building
Technologies Program, Mailstop EE–2J,
Revisions to Energy Efficiency
Enforcement Regulations, EERE–2013–
BT–STD–0006, 1000 Independence
Avenue SW., Washington, DC 20585–
0121. Phone: (202) 586–2945. If
possible, please submit all items on a
CD, in which case it is not necessary to
include printed copies.
(3) Hand Delivery/Courier: Ms.
Brenda Edwards, U.S. Department of
Energy, Building Technologies Program,
6th Floor, 950 L’Enfant Plaza SW.,
Washington, DC 20024. Phone: (202)
SUMMARY:
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Federal Register / Vol. 80, No. 84 / Friday, May 1, 2015 / Proposed Rules
586–2945. If possible, please submit all
items on a CD, in which case it is not
necessary to include printed copies.
(4) Instructions: All submissions
received must include the agency name
and docket number or RIN for this
rulemaking.
Docket: The docket, which includes
Federal Register notices, comments,
and other supporting documents/
materials, is available for review at
www.regulations.gov. All documents in
the docket are listed in the
www.regulations.gov index. However,
not all documents listed in the index
may be publicly available, such as
information that is exempt from public
disclosure.
A link to the docket Web page can be
found at: https://www.regulations.gov/
#!docketDetail;D=EERE-2013-BT-STD0006. The www.regulations.gov Web
page contains instructions on how to
access all documents in the docket,
including public comments. See
ADDRESSES, for further information on
how to submit comments through
www.regulations.gov.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT:
Ms. Ashley Armstrong, U.S.
Department of Energy, Office of Energy
Efficiency and Renewable Energy,
Building Technologies, EE–2J, 1000
Independence Avenue SW.,
Washington, DC 20585–0121.
Telephone: (202) 586–6590. Email:
CIFansBlowers@ee.doe.gov.
Mr. Peter Cochran, U.S. Department of
Energy, Office of the General Counsel,
GC–33, 1000 Independence Avenue
SW., Washington, DC 20585–0121.
Telephone: (202) 586–9496. Email:
peter.cochran@hq.doe.gov.
For further information on how to
review other public comments and the
docket, contact Ms. Brenda Edwards at
(202) 586–2945 or by email:
Brenda.Edwards@ee.doe.gov.
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION:
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Table of Contents
I. History of Energy Conservation Standards
Rulemaking for Commercial and
Industrial Fans and Blowers
II. Current Status
III. Summary of the Analyses Performed by
DOE
A. Energy Metric
B. Engineering Analysis
C. Manufacturer Impact Analysis
D. Life-Cycle Cost and Payback Period
Analyses
E. National Impact Analysis
IV. Issues on Which DOE Seeks Public
Comment
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I. History of Energy Conservation
Standards Rulemaking for Commercial
and Industrial Fans and Blowers
The Energy Policy and Conservation
Act of 1975 (EPCA), as amended,
established the Energy Conservation
Program for Certain Industrial
Equipment under Title III, Part C. (42
U.S.C. 6311–6317, as codified) 1
Included among the various types of
industrial equipment addressed by
EPCA are commercial and industrial
fans and blowers, the subject of this
notice. (42 U.S.C. 6311(2) (A)) All
references to EPCA refer to the statute
as amended through the American
Energy Manufacturing Technical
Corrections Act (AEMTCA), Public Law
112–210 (December 18, 2012).
DOE initiated the current rulemaking
by publishing a proposed coverage
determination for commercial and
industrial fans and blowers. 76 FR
37678 (June 28, 2011). This was
followed by the publication of a Notice
of Public Meeting and Availability of
the Framework Document for
commercial and industrial fans and
blowers in the Federal Register. In the
Framework Document, DOE requested
feedback from interested parties on
many issues related to analyses DOE
would conduct as part of the
rulemaking, such as the engineering
analysis, the manufacturer impact
analysis (MIA), the life-cycle cost (LCC)
and payback period (PBP) analyses, and
the national impact analysis (NIA). 78
FR 7306 (February 1, 2013).2
On December 10, 2014, DOE
published a Notice of Data Availability
(the ‘‘December 2014 NODA’’) that
presented a provisional analysis
estimating the potential economic
impacts and energy savings that could
result from promulgating a regulatory
energy conservation standard for
commercial and industrial fans and
blowers. 79 FR 73246.3 The December
2014 NODA analysis relied on an
electric input power based metric (i.e.,
‘‘wire-to-air’’), the fan energy index
(FEI). The FEI of a fan was defined as
the average electric input power, or fan
energy rating, of a fan that exactly meets
the efficiency level being analyzed
(FERSTD), divided by the average electric
input power or fan energy rating of the
1 For editorial reasons, upon codification in the
U.S. Code, Part C was re-designated Part A–1.
2 Supporting documents are available at: https://
www.regulations.gov/#!docketDetail;D=EERE-2013BT-STD-0006
3 The December 2014 NODA comment period was
originally scheduled to close on January 26, 2015.
DOE subsequently published a notice in the Federal
Register extending the comment period to February
25, 2015, to allow additional time for interested
parties to submit comments.
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fan (FER). In the December 2014 NODA,
the FER was calculated over a specific
load profile based on the fan’s flow at
peak total efficiency 4 and at a specified
speed.5
In October 2014, several energy
efficiency advocates and representatives
of fan manufacturers 6 (the ‘‘Joint
Stakeholders’’) presented a different
energy metric approach to DOE called
‘‘Fan Efficiency Ratio’’. The Joint
Stakeholder approach included a fan
efficiency only metric (FERH) as well as
a wire-to-air metric (FERW).7 This metric
approach was described in more details
by AMCA in a white paper (‘‘AMCA
white paper’’) published in December
2014 which AMCA included in
comments to the December 2014
NODA.8 (AMCA, No. 48 at p. 15) Based
on the additional information received,
and comments to the December 2014
NODA, DOE revised its analysis. This
second NODA presents an analysis that
characterizes fan performance and
efficiency levels using a revised FEI
metric that is based on the FERW
presented by the Joint Stakeholders.
(See section III.A for details on the
revised FEI metric)
II. Current Status
The analyses described in this NODA
were developed to support a potential
energy conservation standard for
commercial and industrial fans. As DOE
announced in an April 2015 notice,
DOE intends to establish a negotiated
rulemaking working group under the
Appliance Standards and Rulemaking
Federal Advisory Committee (ASRAC)
in accordance with the Federal
Advisory Committee Act (FACA) and
the Negotiated Rulemaking Act (NRA) to
negotiate proposed definitions, the
equipment classes for which standards
would be considered (including any
system interaction effects), certain
aspects of a proposed test procedure (if
4 The efficiency of a fan is defined as the ratio of
air output power to mechanical input power. Fan
efficiency varies depending on the output flow and
pressure. The best efficiency point or BEP
represents the flow and pressure values at which
the fan efficiency is maximized when operating at
a given speed.
5 In the December 2014 NODA, DOE calculated
the FEI at the speed corresponding to the highest
electric motor synchronous speed configuration that
exists within the fan’s operational speed range.
6 The Air Movement and Control Association
(AMCA), New York Blower Company, Natural
Resources Defense Council (NRDC), the Appliance
Standards Awareness Project (ASAP), and the
Northwest Energy Efficiency Alliance (NEEA).
7 Supporting documents from this meeting,
including presentation slides are available at:
https://www.regulations.gov/#a!documentDetail;
D=EERE-2013-BT-STD-0006-0029.
8 All comments are available at: https://
www.regulations.gov/#!docketDetail;D=EERE-2013BT-STD-0006.
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applicable), and proposed energy
conservation standards for fans and
blowers. 80 FR 17359 (April 1, 2015)
To examine these issues, and others
as necessary, DOE will provide to all
parties in the negotiation data and an
analytic framework complete and
accurate enough to support their
deliberations. DOE is publishing this
analysis to inform a prospective
negotiation.
In this NODA, DOE is not proposing
any energy conservation standards for
commercial and industrial fans. DOE
may revise the analyses presented in
this NODA based on any new or
updated information or data it obtains
during the course of the rulemaking.
DOE encourages stakeholders to provide
any additional data or information that
may improve the analysis.
III. Summary of the Analyses
Performed by DOE
DOE developed a fan energy
performance metric and conducted
provisional analyses of commercial and
industrial fans in the following areas: (1)
Engineering; (2) manufacturer impacts;
(3) LCC and PBP; and (4) national
impacts. The metric and provisional
analyses incorporate information
received after the completion of the
analysis for the December 2014 NODA,
including the published fan industry
white paper ‘‘Fan Efficiency Ratios’’ and
a database of confidential sales
information provided by (AMCA). The
fan energy performance metric and the
tools used in preparing these analyses
and their respective results are available
at: https://www.regulations.gov/#!docket
Detail;D=EERE-2013-BT-STD-0006.
Each individual spreadsheet includes an
introduction that provides an overview
of the contents of the spreadsheet. These
spreadsheets present the various inputs
and outputs to the analysis and, where
necessary, instructions. Brief
descriptions of the fan energy
performance metric, of the provisional
analyses, and of the supporting
spreadsheet tools are provided below. If
DOE proposes an energy conservation
standard for commercial and industrial
fans in a future NOPR, then DOE will
publish a TSD containing a detailed
written account of the analyses
performed in support of the NOPR,
which will include updates to the
analyses made available in this NODA.
A. Energy Metric
Commercial and industrial fan energy
performance is a critical input in the
provisional analyses discussed in this
notice. For the purpose of this NODA,
DOE revised the fan energy metric used
to represent fan performance and
characterize the efficiency levels
analyzed in the December 2014 NODA.
The revised FEI metric is based on an
approach similar to the wire-to-air
metric presented by the Joint
Stakeholders to DOE in October 2014.
AMCA subsequently published a white
24843
paper in December 2014 that describes
the Joint Stakeholder approach in more
detail. AMCA included this white paper
in its publicily-available comments to
the December 2014 NODA, which
additional stakeholders supported in
their written comments on the
December 2014 NODA.9 10 (Joint
Stakeholders, No. 50 at p. 2; AMCA, No.
48 at p. 15; CAIous, No. 49 at p. 2;
Morrison, No. 51 at p. 2)
In this NODA, the FEI is defined as
the electric input power of a fan, or fan
energy rating that exactly meets the
efficiency level being analyzed
(FERSTD), divided by the electric input
power, or fan energy rating, of a given
fan model (FER) at a given operating
point (characterized by a value of flow
and total pressure). For a given
operating point, an FEI value less than
one would indicate that the fan does not
meet the efficiency level being analyzed
for that given operating point, while a
value greater than one would indicate
that the fan is more efficient than the
efficiency level being analyzed at that
given operating point. For each fan
operating point, the FEI is calculated as:
In order to calculate the FER of a fan,
DOE assumed default motor full load
and part load efficiency values, as well
as default transmission losses: 11
For the FERSTD calculation of a fan
that exactly meets the efficiency level
being analyzed, DOE used the same FER
equation, except the calculation of the
fan shaft input power is based on a
minimum allowable fan total efficiency:
Where:
FERSTD,i: Maximum allowable electrical input
power (hp) at operating point i;
BHPSTD,i: Maximum allowable shaft input
power (hp) at operating point i;
Qi: flow (cfm) at operating point i;
Pi: total pressure (in.wg) at operating point i;
hSTD,i: minimum total fan efficiency (%) at
operating point i ;
hT,i: default transmission efficiency (%) at
operating point i (the minimally
9 Supporting documents from the October 2014
meeting, including presentation slides are available
at: https://www.regulations.gov/#!documentDetail;
D=EERE-2013-BT-STD-0006-0029.
10 AMCA, Introducing Fan Efficiency Ratios,
December 2014, https://www.amca.org/resources/
FER_Whitepaper_single%20pages.pdf.
11 These default losses assumptions are presented
in the LCC spreadsheet, in the ‘‘Default Losses’’
worksheet. The default transmission efficiency is
equal to one in case of a direct driven fan.
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hT,i: default transmission efficiency (%) at
oprating point i (equals 100% f the fan
is a direct driven fan);
LM,i: default electric motor losses (hp) at
operatin gpoint i;
BHPi: shaft input power (hp) at operating
point i;
6343: conversion factor to I–P units.
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Where:
FERi: electrical input power (hp) at operating
point i;
Qi: flow (cfm) at operating point i;
Pi: total fan efficiency (%) at operating point
i;
hfan,i: total fan efficiency (%) at operating
point i;
Federal Register / Vol. 80, No. 84 / Friday, May 1, 2015 / Proposed Rules
compliant fan is assumed to always be
belt-driven);
LM,i: default electric motor losses (hp) at
operating point i;
6343: conversion factor to I–P units.
Where:
hSTD,i: Minimum total fan efficiency (%) at
operating point i;
BHPSTD,i: Max allowable shaft input power
(hp) at operating point i;
Q0: flow constant equal to 250
P0: total pressure constant equal to 0.4
htarget: constant used to establish the
efficiency level 12
6343: conversion factor to I–P units
Stakeholders, No. 50 at p. 3; AMCA, No.
48 at p. 16; CES Group LLC, No. 40 at
p. 1; Multi-wing, No. 52 at p. 2; Carrier,
No. 43 at p. 6; Morrison, No. 51 at p. 2)
DOE understands that using static
pressure may be useful for selecting
unducted fans, however, because static
efficiency is, by definition, calculated
using total pressure, and because the
shaft input power of a fan is a function
of the fan’s total output power and total
efficiency, DOE maintained the use of
an energy metric based on total pressure
and total efficiency for all fan
categories.16 DOE does not believe this
approach would prevent end-users from
selecting fans using either static or total
pressure.
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This equation was based on the metric
approach recommended by the Joint
Stakeholders as well as on AMCA’s
proposed values for Q0 and P0 and on
DOE’s preliminary review of the
applicability of this equation.13
The primary difference between the
revised FEI metric used in this NODA
and the wire-to-air metric recommended
by the Joint Stakeholders is that the
Joint Stakeholders recommend using an
equation expressing static efficiency 14
as a function of static pressure and flow
when calculating FER and FERSTD at a
given operating point for unducted fans
(i.e. fans generally applied without a
duct on their outlet), instead of using
total efficiency as a function of total
pressure and flow, as recommended for
ducted fans.15 In its white paper, AMCA
states that a metric based on static
efficiency should be used for unducted
fans, to accommodate the selection of
unducted fans based on the use of static
pressure. AMCA noted, however, that
this opinion is not shared across all the
industry. Three additional
representatives of the industry agreed
that static efficiency should be the basis
for any metric related to unducted fans
because of existing selection practices,
while one recommended using total
efficiency for all fan categories. (Joint
12 The efficiency target is a constant that
described the expected minimum allowable fan
efficiency for very high flow and total pressure
operating points at a given efficiency level.
13 See AMCA’s DOE Fan efficiency Proposal
presented at the 59th AMCA Annual Meeting,
January 24, 2015. https://www.amca.org/adovacy/
documents/DOEFanEfficiencyProposal-AMCA
AnnualMeetingRedux1-24-15.pdf.
14 Static efficiency is equal to the total efficiency
multiplied by the ratio of static pressure to total
pressure, at a given point of operation. Static
pressure is the difference between fan total pressure
and fan velocity pressure at a given point of
operation.
15 Unducted fans include the following fan
categories: Axial unhoused, centrifugal unhoused,
and power roof ventilators.
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For all fan categories, the minimum
fan total efficiency at a given operating
B. Engineering Analysis
The engineering analysis establishes
the relationship between the
manufacturer production cost (MPC)
and efficiency levels of commercial and
industrial fans and blowers. This
relationship serves as the basis for
calculations performed in the other
analysis tools to estimate the costs and
benefits to individual consumers,
manufacturers, and the nation.
As a first step in the engineering
analysis, DOE established seven
provisional fan groups based on
characteristics such as the direction of
airflow through the fan and the presence
of a housing. While DOE analyzed seven
provisional fan groups in this NODA,
DOE expects the working group to
discuss and ultimately recommend
equipment classes for which standards
would be considered. For each of the
seven provisional fan groupings, DOE
identified existing technology options
that could affect efficiency. DOE then
conducted a screening analysis to
review each technology option and
decide whether it: (1) Is technologically
feasible; (2) is practicable to
manufacture, install, and service; (3)
would adversely affect product utility or
product availability; or (4) would have
adverse impacts on health and safety.
The technology options remaining after
the screening analysis consisted of a
16 The
fan’s total output power is the power
delivered to the air (or gas). It is proportional to the
product of the fan airflow rate and fan total pressure
(if air were incompressible).
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point is expressed as a function of flow
and total pressure, as follows:
variety of impeller types and guide
vanes. DOE used these technology
options to divide the fan groups into
subgroups and conducted a marketbased assessment of the prevalence of
each subgroup at the different efficiency
levels analyzed using the sales data
provided by AMCA. This NODA has
fewer subgroups than the December
2014 NODA due to limitations in the
sales data provided by AMCA. DOE
analyzed six efficiency levels in this
NODA, each representing a different
efficiency target (htarget). AMCA
presented results for an efficiency target
of 62 percent for ducted fans.17 This
NODA includes one efficiency level
representing the same efficiency target
as well as additional levels above and
below.
DOE estimated the MPCs for each
technology option for each fan group as
a function of blade or impeller diameter,
independent of efficiency level. DOE
then calculated MPCs for each fan group
at each efficiency level analyzed by
weighting the MPCs of each technology
option within a group by its prevalence
at the efficiency level being analyzed.
The MPCs were derived from product
teardowns and publically-available
product literature and informed by
interviews with manufacturers.
DOE’s preliminary MPC estimates
indicate that the changes in MPC as
efficiency level increases are small or, in
some fan groups, zero. However, DOE is
aware that aerodynamic redesigns are a
primary method by which
manufacturers improve fan
performance. These redesigns require
manufacturers to make large upfront
investments for R&D, testing and
prototyping, and purchasing new
production equipment. DOE’s
preliminary findings indicate that the
magnitude of these upfront costs is more
significant than the difference in MPC of
a fan redesigned for efficiency compared
to its precursor. For this NODA, DOE
included a conversion cost markup in
its calculation of the manufacturer
selling price (MSP) to account for these
17 See AMCA’s DOE Fan efficiency Proposal
presented at the 59th AMCA Annual Meeting,
January 24, 2015. https://www.amca.org/adovacy/
documents/DOEFanEfficiencyProposalAMCAAnnualMeetingRedux1-24-15.pdf
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conversion costs. These markups and
associated MSPs were developed and
applied in downstream analyses. They
are discussed in section C and presented
in the engineering analysis and
conversion cost spreadsheet.
The main outputs of the commercial
and industrial fans engineering analysis
are the MPCs of each fan group
(including material, labor, and
overhead) and technology option
distributions at each efficiency level
analyzed.
C. Manufacturer Impact Analysis
For the MIA, DOE used the
Government Regulatory Impact Model
(GRIM) to assess the economic impact of
potential standards on commercial and
industrial fan manufacturers. DOE
developed key industry average
financial parameters for the GRIM using
publicly available data from corporate
annual reports along with information
received through confidential
interviews with manufacturers. These
values include average industry tax rate;
working capital rate; net property, plant,
and equipment rate; selling, general,
and administrative expense rate;
research and development expense rate;
depreciation rate; capital expenditure
rate; and manufacturer discount rate.
Additionally, DOE calculated total
industry capital and product conversion
costs associated with meeting all
analyzed efficiency levels. DOE first
estimated the average industry capital
and product conversion costs associated
with redesigning a single fan model to
meet a specific efficiency level. DOE
estimated these costs for all technology
options within each fan group. DOE
multiplied the per model conversion
costs by the number of models that
would be required to be redesigned at
each potential standard level to arrive at
the total industry conversion costs. The
number of models that would be
redesigned was calculated using
information from the AMCA sales
database.
In the December 2014 NODA, DOE
assumed a redesign time of six months
and an additional testing time of six
months. Five representatives of the
industry commented that six months
was not a representative redesign time
and made recommendations ranging
from 12 to 24 months. (AHRI, No. 53 at
p. 8; AMCA, No. 48 at p. 4; Carrier, No.
43 at p. 2; Greenheck, No. 54 at p. 5;
Morrison, No. 51 at p. 4) DOE revised
its conversion cost estimates in this
NODA to assume a redesign time of 12
months and additional testing time of 6
months.
The GRIM uses these estimated values
in conjunction with inputs from other
VerDate Sep<11>2014
16:34 Apr 30, 2015
Jkt 235001
analyses including the MPCs from the
engineering analysis, the annual
shipments by fan group from the NIA,
and the manufacturer markups for the
cost recovery markup scenario from the
LCC analysis to model industry annual
cash flows from the base year through
the end of the analysis period. The
primary quantitative output of this
model is the industry net present value
(INPV), which DOE calculates as the
sum of industry annual cash flows,
discounted to the present day using the
industry specific weighted average cost
of capital, or manufacturer discount
rate.
Standards can affect INPV in several
ways including requiring upfront
investments in manufacturing capital as
well as research and development
expenses, which increase the cost of
production and potentially alter
manufacturer markups. DOE expects
that manufacturers may lose a portion of
INPV due to standards. The potential
loss in INPV due to standards is
calculated as the difference between
INPV in the base-case (absent new
energy conservation standards) and the
INPV in the standards case (with new
energy conservation standards in effect).
DOE examines a range of possible
impacts on industry by modeling
various pricing strategies commercial
and industrial fan manufacturers may
adopt following the adoption of new
energy conservations standards for
commercial and industrial fans.
In addition to INPV, the MIA also
calculates the manufacturer markups,
which are applied to the MPCs derived
in the engineering analysis, to arrive at
the manufacturer selling prices (MSPs)
in the base case. For efficiency levels
above the baseline, which require
manufacturers to redesign models that
do not meet the potential standards,
conversion cost recovery markups were
incorporated into the MSP in addition
to the manufacturer markup. These
conversion markups are based on the
total conversion costs from the MIA and
calculated to allow manufacturers to
recover their upfront conversion costs.
They are calculated by amortizing the
conversion investment over the units
shipped throughout the analysis period
that were redesigned to meet the
efficiency level being analyzed. The
base case and standards case MSPs were
used as inputs for downstream analyses.
D. Life-Cycle Cost and Payback Period
Analyses
The LCC and PBP analyses determine
the economic impact of potential
standards on individual consumers, in
the compliance year. The LCC is the
total cost of purchasing, installing and
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Fmt 4702
Sfmt 4702
24845
operating a commercial or industrial fan
over the course of its lifetime.
DOE determines the LCC by
considering: (1) The total installed cost
to the consumer (which consists of
manufacturer selling price, distribution
channel markups, and sales taxes); (2)
the range of annual energy consumption
of commercial and industrial fans as
they are used in the field; (3) the
operating cost of commercial and
industrial fans (e.g., energy cost); (4)
equipment lifetime; and (5) a discount
rate that reflects the real consumer cost
of capital and puts the LCC in presentvalue terms. The PBP represents the
number of years needed to recover the
increase in purchase price of higherefficiency commercial and industrial
fans through savings in the operating
cost. PBP is calculated by dividing the
incremental increase in installed cost of
the higher efficiency product, compared
to the baseline product, by the annual
savings in operating costs.
For each considered standards case
corresponding to each efficiency level,
DOE measures the change in LCC
relative to the base case. The base case
is characterized by the distribution of
equipment efficiencies in the absence of
new standards (i.e., what consumers
would have purchased in the
compliance year in the absence of new
standards). In the standards cases,
equipment with efficiency below the
standard levels ‘‘roll-up’’ to the standard
level in the compliance year.
To characterize annual fan operating
hours, DOE established statistical
distributions of consumers of each fan
category across sectors (industry or
commercial) and applications (clean air
ventilation, exhaust, combustion,
drying, process air, process heating/
cooling, and others), which in turn
determined the fan’s operating hours.
Recognizing that several inputs to the
determination of consumer LCC and
PBP are either variable or uncertain
(e.g., annual energy consumption,
lifetime, discount rate), DOE conducts
the LCC and PBP analysis by modeling
both the uncertainty and variability in
the inputs using Monte Carlo
simulations and probability
distributions.
In addition to characterizing several
of the inputs to the analyses with
probability distributions, DOE
developed a sample of individual fan
selections (i.e., a fan models and the
operating flow and pressure values for
which they were purchased) using fan
sales data provided by AMCA 18. By
18 See description in LCC spreadsheet, LCC
sample description worksheet.
E:\FR\FM\01MYP1.SGM
01MYP1
24846
Federal Register / Vol. 80, No. 84 / Friday, May 1, 2015 / Proposed Rules
mstockstill on DSK4VPTVN1PROD with PROPOSALS
developing this sample, DOE was able
to perform the LCC and PBP
calculations for each fan selection to
account for the variability in energy
consumption associated with each fan
selection. DOE notes that when
developing the LCC sample, it did not
include fan sales data for which no flow
and pressure selection information was
available.
The primary outputs of the LCC and
PBP analyses are: (1) Average LCC in
each standards case; (2) average PBPs;
(3) average LCC savings at each
standards case relative to the base case;
and (4) the percentage of consumers that
experience a net benefit, have no
impact, or have a net cost for each fan
group and efficiency level. The average
annual energy consumption derived in
the LCC analysis is used as an input in
the NIA.
E. National Impact Analysis
The NIA estimates the national energy
savings (NES) and the net present value
(NPV) of total consumer costs and
savings expected to result from potential
new standards at each EL. DOE
calculated NES and NPV for each EL as
the difference between a base case
forecast (without new standards) and
the standards case forecast (with
standards). Cumulative energy savings
are the sum of the annual NES
determined for the lifetime of a
commercial or industrial fan shipped
during a 30 year analysis period
assumed to start in 2019.19 Energy
savings include the full-fuel cycle
energy savings (i.e., the energy needed
to extract, process, and deliver primary
fuel sources such as coal and natural
gas, and the conversion and distribution
losses of generating electricity from
those fuel sources). The NPV is the sum
over time of the discounted net savings
each year, which consists of the
difference between total energy cost
savings and increases in total equipment
costs. NPV results are reported for
discount rates of 3 and 7 percent.
To calculate the NES and NPV, DOE
projected future shipments 20 and
efficiency distributions (for each EL) for
each potential commercial and
industrial fan category. DOE recognizes
the uncertainty in projecting shipments
and electricity prices; as a result the
NIA includes several different scenarios
for each. Other inputs to the NIA
include the estimated commercial and
19 The LCC and NIA spreadsheet provide results
for a different compliance year (2019, 2020, and
2021).
20 The ‘‘shipments’’ worksheet of the NIA
spreadsheet presents the scope of the analysis and
the total shipments value in units for the fans in
scope.
VerDate Sep<11>2014
16:34 Apr 30, 2015
Jkt 235001
industrial fan lifetime used in the LCC
analysis, manufacturer selling prices
from the MIA, average annual energy
consumption, and efficiency
distributions from the LCC.
IV. Issues on Which DOE Seeks Public
Comment
DOE is interested in receiving
comment on all aspects of this analysis.
DOE is particularly interested in
receiving comments and views of
interested parties concerning the
following issues:
1. DOE requests comments on the
equation expressing fan total efficiency
as presented in this notice, as a function
of flow and total pressure.
2. DOE requests comment on the
values of the flow constant (Q0) and
total pressure constant (P0) used to
calculate the minimum fan total
efficiency at a given operating point.
3. DOE requests comments on the
default transmission efficiency equation
used in the FEI calculation.
4. DOE requests comments on the
default motor losses assumptions used
in the FEI calculation.
5. DOE requests comments on how
manufacturers determine/would
determine whether to redesign or
eliminate a fan model that is not
compliant at an operating point or
points at which it has been sold
previously.
6. DOE estimated the number of
redesigns at each efficiency level based
on the sales data provided by AMCA.
DOE recognizes that the AMCA data
does not include all commercial and
industrial fan sales for the industry, and
that existing fans can operate at more
selection points than those at which
they were sold as represented in the
AMCA sales database. DOE requests
comments on whether the resulting total
conversion costs presented in the
spreadsheets released with this NODA
are representative of the industry at the
efficiency levels analyzed. If not, how
should the number of redesigns be
adjusted to be representative of the
industry?
7. DOE requests additional
information to allow quantifying
installation, repair, and maintenance
costs for industrial and commercial
fans.
8. DOE requests additional
information to allow quantifying
lifetimes for industrial and commercial
fans.
9. DOE requests additional
information to allow quantifying annual
operating hours for industrial and
commercial fans.
10. DOE seeks inputs and comments
on the estimates of flow and total
PO 00000
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Fmt 4702
Sfmt 4702
pressure operating points used in the
energy use analysis.
11. DOE requests comments on how
to account for consumers purchasing
fans without providing any selection
data (i.e., design flow and pressure
values) in the LCC calculations.
12. DOE requests comment on
determining the motor horsepower
based on 120 percent of the fan shaft
input power when performing the
energy use calculation.
13. DOE requests comments on the
method used in the LCC to identify fans
that could be considered substitutes.
14. DOE seeks comments and inputs
regarding the use of typical fan curves
and efficiency curves in order to
calculate fan shaft input power at
different flow and pressure values based
on a fan selection’s performance data at
a single given design point.
15. DOE seeks inputs to support the
development of trends in fan efficiency
over time in the base case and in the
standards cases.
The purpose of this NODA is to notify
industry, manufacturers, consumer
groups, efficiency advocates,
government agencies, and other
stakeholders of the publication of an
analysis of potential energy
conservation standards for commercial
and industrial fans. Stakeholders should
contact DOE for any additional
information pertaining to the analyses
performed for this NODA.
Issued in Washington, DC, on April 21,
2015.
Kathleen B. Hogan,
Deputy Assistant Secretary for Energy
Efficiency, Energy Efficiency and Renewable
Energy.
[FR Doc. 2015–10036 Filed 4–30–15; 8:45 am]
BILLING CODE 6450–01–P
SMALL BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION
13 CFR Part 127
RIN 3245–AG72
Women-Owned Small Business
Federal Contract Program
U.S. Small Business
Administration.
ACTION: Proposed rule.
AGENCY:
The U.S. Small Business
Administration (SBA) proposes to
amend its regulations to implement
section 825 of the National Defense
Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2015
(2015 NDAA). Section 825 of the 2015
NDAA included language granting
contracting officers the authority to
award sole source contracts to Women-
SUMMARY:
E:\FR\FM\01MYP1.SGM
01MYP1
]]>Agencies
[Federal Register Volume 80, Number 84 (Friday, May 1, 2015)]
[Proposed Rules]
[Pages 24841-24846]
From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office [www.gpo.gov]
[FR Doc No: 2015-10036]
=======================================================================
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
10 CFR Part 431
[Docket No. EERE-2013-BT-STD-0006]
RIN 1904-AC55
Energy Conservation Standards for Commercial and Industrial Fans
and Blowers: Availability of Provisional Analysis Tools
AGENCY: Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Department of
Energy.
ACTION: Notice of Data Availability.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
SUMMARY: The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has completed a
provisional analysis of the potential economic impacts and energy
savings that could result from promulgating an energy conservation
standard for commercial and industrial fans and blowers. This analysis
incorporates information and comments received after the completion of
an analysis presented in a notice of data availability (NODA) published
in December 2014. At this time, DOE is not proposing an energy
conservation standard for commercial and industrial fans and blowers.
This analysis may be used in support of the Appliance Standards Federal
Rulemaking Advisory Committee (ASRAC) commercial and industrial fans
working group negotiations to develop a recommendation for regulating
commercial and industrial fans. DOE encourages stakeholders to provide
any additional data or information that may improve the analysis and to
present comments submitted to this NODA and to the NODA published in
December 2014 to the working group.
DATES: Information is available as of May 1, 2015.
ADDRESSES: The analysis for this NODA is available at: https://www1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/rulemaking.aspx?ruleid=25.
Interested persons are encouraged to submit comments using the
Federal eRulemaking Portal at: https://www.regulations.gov. Follow the
instructions for submitting comments. Alternatively, interested persons
may submit comments, identified by Docket number EERE-2013-BT-STD-0006,
by any of the following methods:
(1) Email: to CIFB2013STD0006@ee.doe.gov. Include EERE-2013-BT-STD-
0006 in the subject line of the message. Submit electronic comments in
WordPerfect, Microsoft Word, PDF, or ASCII file format, and avoid the
use of special characters or any form of encryption.
(2) Mail: Ms. Brenda Edwards, U.S. Department of Energy, Building
Technologies Program, Mailstop EE-2J, Revisions to Energy Efficiency
Enforcement Regulations, EERE-2013-BT-STD-0006, 1000 Independence
Avenue SW., Washington, DC 20585- 0121. Phone: (202) 586-2945. If
possible, please submit all items on a CD, in which case it is not
necessary to include printed copies.
(3) Hand Delivery/Courier: Ms. Brenda Edwards, U.S. Department of
Energy, Building Technologies Program, 6th Floor, 950 L'Enfant Plaza
SW., Washington, DC 20024. Phone: (202)
[[Page 24842]]
586-2945. If possible, please submit all items on a CD, in which case
it is not necessary to include printed copies.
(4) Instructions: All submissions received must include the agency
name and docket number or RIN for this rulemaking.
Docket: The docket, which includes Federal Register notices,
comments, and other supporting documents/materials, is available for
review at www.regulations.gov. All documents in the docket are listed
in the www.regulations.gov index. However, not all documents listed in
the index may be publicly available, such as information that is exempt
from public disclosure.
A link to the docket Web page can be found at: https://www.regulations.gov/#!docketDetail;D=EERE-2013-BT-STD-0006. The
www.regulations.gov Web page contains instructions on how to access all
documents in the docket, including public comments. See ADDRESSES, for
further information on how to submit comments through
www.regulations.gov.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT:
Ms. Ashley Armstrong, U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy
Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Building Technologies, EE-2J, 1000
Independence Avenue SW., Washington, DC 20585-0121. Telephone: (202)
586-6590. Email: CIFansBlowers@ee.doe.gov.
Mr. Peter Cochran, U.S. Department of Energy, Office of the General
Counsel, GC-33, 1000 Independence Avenue SW., Washington, DC 20585-
0121. Telephone: (202) 586-9496. Email: peter.cochran@hq.doe.gov.
For further information on how to review other public comments and
the docket, contact Ms. Brenda Edwards at (202) 586-2945 or by email:
Brenda.Edwards@ee.doe.gov.
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION:
Table of Contents
I. History of Energy Conservation Standards Rulemaking for
Commercial and Industrial Fans and Blowers
II. Current Status
III. Summary of the Analyses Performed by DOE
A. Energy Metric
B. Engineering Analysis
C. Manufacturer Impact Analysis
D. Life-Cycle Cost and Payback Period Analyses
E. National Impact Analysis
IV. Issues on Which DOE Seeks Public Comment
I. History of Energy Conservation Standards Rulemaking for Commercial
and Industrial Fans and Blowers
The Energy Policy and Conservation Act of 1975 (EPCA), as amended,
established the Energy Conservation Program for Certain Industrial
Equipment under Title III, Part C. (42 U.S.C. 6311-6317, as codified)
\1\ Included among the various types of industrial equipment addressed
by EPCA are commercial and industrial fans and blowers, the subject of
this notice. (42 U.S.C. 6311(2) (A)) All references to EPCA refer to
the statute as amended through the American Energy Manufacturing
Technical Corrections Act (AEMTCA), Public Law 112-210 (December 18,
2012).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\1\ For editorial reasons, upon codification in the U.S. Code,
Part C was re-designated Part A-1.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
DOE initiated the current rulemaking by publishing a proposed
coverage determination for commercial and industrial fans and blowers.
76 FR 37678 (June 28, 2011). This was followed by the publication of a
Notice of Public Meeting and Availability of the Framework Document for
commercial and industrial fans and blowers in the Federal Register. In
the Framework Document, DOE requested feedback from interested parties
on many issues related to analyses DOE would conduct as part of the
rulemaking, such as the engineering analysis, the manufacturer impact
analysis (MIA), the life-cycle cost (LCC) and payback period (PBP)
analyses, and the national impact analysis (NIA). 78 FR 7306 (February
1, 2013).\2\
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\2\ Supporting documents are available at: https://www.regulations.gov/#!docketDetail;D=EERE-2013-BT-STD-0006
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
On December 10, 2014, DOE published a Notice of Data Availability
(the ``December 2014 NODA'') that presented a provisional analysis
estimating the potential economic impacts and energy savings that could
result from promulgating a regulatory energy conservation standard for
commercial and industrial fans and blowers. 79 FR 73246.\3\ The
December 2014 NODA analysis relied on an electric input power based
metric (i.e., ``wire-to-air''), the fan energy index (FEI). The FEI of
a fan was defined as the average electric input power, or fan energy
rating, of a fan that exactly meets the efficiency level being analyzed
(FERSTD), divided by the average electric input power or fan
energy rating of the fan (FER). In the December 2014 NODA, the FER was
calculated over a specific load profile based on the fan's flow at peak
total efficiency \4\ and at a specified speed.\5\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\3\ The December 2014 NODA comment period was originally
scheduled to close on January 26, 2015. DOE subsequently published a
notice in the Federal Register extending the comment period to
February 25, 2015, to allow additional time for interested parties
to submit comments.
\4\ The efficiency of a fan is defined as the ratio of air
output power to mechanical input power. Fan efficiency varies
depending on the output flow and pressure. The best efficiency point
or BEP represents the flow and pressure values at which the fan
efficiency is maximized when operating at a given speed.
\5\ In the December 2014 NODA, DOE calculated the FEI at the
speed corresponding to the highest electric motor synchronous speed
configuration that exists within the fan's operational speed range.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
In October 2014, several energy efficiency advocates and
representatives of fan manufacturers \6\ (the ``Joint Stakeholders'')
presented a different energy metric approach to DOE called ``Fan
Efficiency Ratio''. The Joint Stakeholder approach included a fan
efficiency only metric (FERH) as well as a wire-to-air
metric (FERW).\7\ This metric approach was described in more
details by AMCA in a white paper (``AMCA white paper'') published in
December 2014 which AMCA included in comments to the December 2014
NODA.\8\ (AMCA, No. 48 at p. 15) Based on the additional information
received, and comments to the December 2014 NODA, DOE revised its
analysis. This second NODA presents an analysis that characterizes fan
performance and efficiency levels using a revised FEI metric that is
based on the FERW presented by the Joint Stakeholders. (See
section III.A for details on the revised FEI metric)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\6\ The Air Movement and Control Association (AMCA), New York
Blower Company, Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC), the
Appliance Standards Awareness Project (ASAP), and the Northwest
Energy Efficiency Alliance (NEEA).
\7\ Supporting documents from this meeting, including
presentation slides are available at: https://www.regulations.gov/#a!documentDetail;D=EERE-2013-BT-STD-0006-0029.
\8\ All comments are available at: https://www.regulations.gov/#!docketDetail;D=EERE-2013-BT-STD-0006.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
II. Current Status
The analyses described in this NODA were developed to support a
potential energy conservation standard for commercial and industrial
fans. As DOE announced in an April 2015 notice, DOE intends to
establish a negotiated rulemaking working group under the Appliance
Standards and Rulemaking Federal Advisory Committee (ASRAC) in
accordance with the Federal Advisory Committee Act (FACA) and the
Negotiated Rulemaking Act (NRA) to negotiate proposed definitions, the
equipment classes for which standards would be considered (including
any system interaction effects), certain aspects of a proposed test
procedure (if
[[Page 24843]]
applicable), and proposed energy conservation standards for fans and
blowers. 80 FR 17359 (April 1, 2015)
To examine these issues, and others as necessary, DOE will provide
to all parties in the negotiation data and an analytic framework
complete and accurate enough to support their deliberations. DOE is
publishing this analysis to inform a prospective negotiation.
In this NODA, DOE is not proposing any energy conservation
standards for commercial and industrial fans. DOE may revise the
analyses presented in this NODA based on any new or updated information
or data it obtains during the course of the rulemaking. DOE encourages
stakeholders to provide any additional data or information that may
improve the analysis.
III. Summary of the Analyses Performed by DOE
DOE developed a fan energy performance metric and conducted
provisional analyses of commercial and industrial fans in the following
areas: (1) Engineering; (2) manufacturer impacts; (3) LCC and PBP; and
(4) national impacts. The metric and provisional analyses incorporate
information received after the completion of the analysis for the
December 2014 NODA, including the published fan industry white paper
``Fan Efficiency Ratios'' and a database of confidential sales
information provided by (AMCA). The fan energy performance metric and
the tools used in preparing these analyses and their respective results
are available at: https://www.regulations.gov/#!docketDetail;D=EERE-
2013-BT-STD-0006. Each individual spreadsheet includes an introduction
that provides an overview of the contents of the spreadsheet. These
spreadsheets present the various inputs and outputs to the analysis
and, where necessary, instructions. Brief descriptions of the fan
energy performance metric, of the provisional analyses, and of the
supporting spreadsheet tools are provided below. If DOE proposes an
energy conservation standard for commercial and industrial fans in a
future NOPR, then DOE will publish a TSD containing a detailed written
account of the analyses performed in support of the NOPR, which will
include updates to the analyses made available in this NODA.
A. Energy Metric
Commercial and industrial fan energy performance is a critical
input in the provisional analyses discussed in this notice. For the
purpose of this NODA, DOE revised the fan energy metric used to
represent fan performance and characterize the efficiency levels
analyzed in the December 2014 NODA. The revised FEI metric is based on
an approach similar to the wire-to-air metric presented by the Joint
Stakeholders to DOE in October 2014. AMCA subsequently published a
white paper in December 2014 that describes the Joint Stakeholder
approach in more detail. AMCA included this white paper in its
publicily-available comments to the December 2014 NODA, which
additional stakeholders supported in their written comments on the
December 2014 NODA.9 10 (Joint Stakeholders, No. 50 at p. 2;
AMCA, No. 48 at p. 15; CAIous, No. 49 at p. 2; Morrison, No. 51 at p.
2)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\9\ Supporting documents from the October 2014 meeting,
including presentation slides are available at: https://www.regulations.gov/#!documentDetail;D=EERE-2013-BT-STD-0006-0029.
\10\ AMCA, Introducing Fan Efficiency Ratios, December 2014,
https://www.amca.org/resources/FER_Whitepaper_single%20pages.pdf.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
In this NODA, the FEI is defined as the electric input power of a
fan, or fan energy rating that exactly meets the efficiency level being
analyzed (FERSTD), divided by the electric input power, or
fan energy rating, of a given fan model (FER) at a given operating
point (characterized by a value of flow and total pressure). For a
given operating point, an FEI value less than one would indicate that
the fan does not meet the efficiency level being analyzed for that
given operating point, while a value greater than one would indicate
that the fan is more efficient than the efficiency level being analyzed
at that given operating point. For each fan operating point, the FEI is
calculated as:
[GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] TP01MY15.008
In order to calculate the FER of a fan, DOE assumed default motor
full load and part load efficiency values, as well as default
transmission losses: \11\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\11\ These default losses assumptions are presented in the LCC
spreadsheet, in the ``Default Losses'' worksheet. The default
transmission efficiency is equal to one in case of a direct driven
fan.
[GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] TP01MY15.009
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Where:
FERi: electrical input power (hp) at operating point i;
Qi: flow (cfm) at operating point i;
Pi: total fan efficiency (%) at operating point i;
[eta]fan,i: total fan efficiency (%) at operating point
i;
[eta]T,i: default transmission efficiency (%) at oprating
point i (equals 100% f the fan is a direct driven fan);
LM,i: default electric motor losses (hp) at operatin
gpoint i;
BHPi: shaft input power (hp) at operating point i;
6343: conversion factor to I-P units.
For the FERSTD calculation of a fan that exactly meets
the efficiency level being analyzed, DOE used the same FER equation,
except the calculation of the fan shaft input power is based on a
minimum allowable fan total efficiency:
[GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] TP01MY15.010
Where:
FERSTD,i: Maximum allowable electrical input power (hp) at operating
point i;
BHPSTD,i: Maximum allowable shaft input power (hp) at operating
point i;
Qi: flow (cfm) at operating point i;
Pi: total pressure (in.wg) at operating point i;
[eta]STD,i: minimum total fan efficiency (%) at operating point i ;
[eta]T,i: default transmission efficiency (%) at operating point i
(the minimally
[[Page 24844]]
compliant fan is assumed to always be belt-driven);
LM,i: default electric motor losses (hp) at operating point i;
6343: conversion factor to I-P units.
For all fan categories, the minimum fan total efficiency at a given
operating point is expressed as a function of flow and total pressure,
as follows:
[GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] TP01MY15.011
Where:
[eta]STD,i: Minimum total fan efficiency (%) at operating point i;
BHPSTD,i: Max allowable shaft input power (hp) at operating point i;
Q0: flow constant equal to 250
P0: total pressure constant equal to 0.4
[eta]target: constant used to establish the efficiency level \12\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\12\ The efficiency target is a constant that described the
expected minimum allowable fan efficiency for very high flow and
total pressure operating points at a given efficiency level.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
6343: conversion factor to I-P units
This equation was based on the metric approach recommended by the
Joint Stakeholders as well as on AMCA's proposed values for
Q0 and P0 and on DOE's preliminary review of the
applicability of this equation.\13\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\13\ See AMCA's DOE Fan efficiency Proposal presented at the
59th AMCA Annual Meeting, January 24, 2015. https://www.amca.org/adovacy/documents/DOEFanEfficiencyProposal-AMCAAnnualMeetingRedux1-24-15.pdf.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
The primary difference between the revised FEI metric used in this
NODA and the wire-to-air metric recommended by the Joint Stakeholders
is that the Joint Stakeholders recommend using an equation expressing
static efficiency \14\ as a function of static pressure and flow when
calculating FER and FERSTD at a given operating point for
unducted fans (i.e. fans generally applied without a duct on their
outlet), instead of using total efficiency as a function of total
pressure and flow, as recommended for ducted fans.\15\ In its white
paper, AMCA states that a metric based on static efficiency should be
used for unducted fans, to accommodate the selection of unducted fans
based on the use of static pressure. AMCA noted, however, that this
opinion is not shared across all the industry. Three additional
representatives of the industry agreed that static efficiency should be
the basis for any metric related to unducted fans because of existing
selection practices, while one recommended using total efficiency for
all fan categories. (Joint Stakeholders, No. 50 at p. 3; AMCA, No. 48
at p. 16; CES Group LLC, No. 40 at p. 1; Multi-wing, No. 52 at p. 2;
Carrier, No. 43 at p. 6; Morrison, No. 51 at p. 2)
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\14\ Static efficiency is equal to the total efficiency
multiplied by the ratio of static pressure to total pressure, at a
given point of operation. Static pressure is the difference between
fan total pressure and fan velocity pressure at a given point of
operation.
\15\ Unducted fans include the following fan categories: Axial
unhoused, centrifugal unhoused, and power roof ventilators.
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DOE understands that using static pressure may be useful for
selecting unducted fans, however, because static efficiency is, by
definition, calculated using total pressure, and because the shaft
input power of a fan is a function of the fan's total output power and
total efficiency, DOE maintained the use of an energy metric based on
total pressure and total efficiency for all fan categories.\16\ DOE
does not believe this approach would prevent end-users from selecting
fans using either static or total pressure.
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\16\ The fan's total output power is the power delivered to the
air (or gas). It is proportional to the product of the fan airflow
rate and fan total pressure (if air were incompressible).
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B. Engineering Analysis
The engineering analysis establishes the relationship between the
manufacturer production cost (MPC) and efficiency levels of commercial
and industrial fans and blowers. This relationship serves as the basis
for calculations performed in the other analysis tools to estimate the
costs and benefits to individual consumers, manufacturers, and the
nation.
As a first step in the engineering analysis, DOE established seven
provisional fan groups based on characteristics such as the direction
of airflow through the fan and the presence of a housing. While DOE
analyzed seven provisional fan groups in this NODA, DOE expects the
working group to discuss and ultimately recommend equipment classes for
which standards would be considered. For each of the seven provisional
fan groupings, DOE identified existing technology options that could
affect efficiency. DOE then conducted a screening analysis to review
each technology option and decide whether it: (1) Is technologically
feasible; (2) is practicable to manufacture, install, and service; (3)
would adversely affect product utility or product availability; or (4)
would have adverse impacts on health and safety. The technology options
remaining after the screening analysis consisted of a variety of
impeller types and guide vanes. DOE used these technology options to
divide the fan groups into subgroups and conducted a market-based
assessment of the prevalence of each subgroup at the different
efficiency levels analyzed using the sales data provided by AMCA. This
NODA has fewer subgroups than the December 2014 NODA due to limitations
in the sales data provided by AMCA. DOE analyzed six efficiency levels
in this NODA, each representing a different efficiency target
([eta]target). AMCA presented results for an efficiency target of 62
percent for ducted fans.\17\ This NODA includes one efficiency level
representing the same efficiency target as well as additional levels
above and below.
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\17\ See AMCA's DOE Fan efficiency Proposal presented at the
59th AMCA Annual Meeting, January 24, 2015. https://www.amca.org/adovacy/documents/DOEFanEfficiencyProposal-AMCAAnnualMeetingRedux1-24-15.pdf
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DOE estimated the MPCs for each technology option for each fan
group as a function of blade or impeller diameter, independent of
efficiency level. DOE then calculated MPCs for each fan group at each
efficiency level analyzed by weighting the MPCs of each technology
option within a group by its prevalence at the efficiency level being
analyzed. The MPCs were derived from product teardowns and publically-
available product literature and informed by interviews with
manufacturers.
DOE's preliminary MPC estimates indicate that the changes in MPC as
efficiency level increases are small or, in some fan groups, zero.
However, DOE is aware that aerodynamic redesigns are a primary method
by which manufacturers improve fan performance. These redesigns require
manufacturers to make large upfront investments for R&D, testing and
prototyping, and purchasing new production equipment. DOE's preliminary
findings indicate that the magnitude of these upfront costs is more
significant than the difference in MPC of a fan redesigned for
efficiency compared to its precursor. For this NODA, DOE included a
conversion cost markup in its calculation of the manufacturer selling
price (MSP) to account for these
[[Page 24845]]
conversion costs. These markups and associated MSPs were developed and
applied in downstream analyses. They are discussed in section C and
presented in the engineering analysis and conversion cost spreadsheet.
The main outputs of the commercial and industrial fans engineering
analysis are the MPCs of each fan group (including material, labor, and
overhead) and technology option distributions at each efficiency level
analyzed.
C. Manufacturer Impact Analysis
For the MIA, DOE used the Government Regulatory Impact Model (GRIM)
to assess the economic impact of potential standards on commercial and
industrial fan manufacturers. DOE developed key industry average
financial parameters for the GRIM using publicly available data from
corporate annual reports along with information received through
confidential interviews with manufacturers. These values include
average industry tax rate; working capital rate; net property, plant,
and equipment rate; selling, general, and administrative expense rate;
research and development expense rate; depreciation rate; capital
expenditure rate; and manufacturer discount rate.
Additionally, DOE calculated total industry capital and product
conversion costs associated with meeting all analyzed efficiency
levels. DOE first estimated the average industry capital and product
conversion costs associated with redesigning a single fan model to meet
a specific efficiency level. DOE estimated these costs for all
technology options within each fan group. DOE multiplied the per model
conversion costs by the number of models that would be required to be
redesigned at each potential standard level to arrive at the total
industry conversion costs. The number of models that would be
redesigned was calculated using information from the AMCA sales
database.
In the December 2014 NODA, DOE assumed a redesign time of six
months and an additional testing time of six months. Five
representatives of the industry commented that six months was not a
representative redesign time and made recommendations ranging from 12
to 24 months. (AHRI, No. 53 at p. 8; AMCA, No. 48 at p. 4; Carrier, No.
43 at p. 2; Greenheck, No. 54 at p. 5; Morrison, No. 51 at p. 4) DOE
revised its conversion cost estimates in this NODA to assume a redesign
time of 12 months and additional testing time of 6 months.
The GRIM uses these estimated values in conjunction with inputs
from other analyses including the MPCs from the engineering analysis,
the annual shipments by fan group from the NIA, and the manufacturer
markups for the cost recovery markup scenario from the LCC analysis to
model industry annual cash flows from the base year through the end of
the analysis period. The primary quantitative output of this model is
the industry net present value (INPV), which DOE calculates as the sum
of industry annual cash flows, discounted to the present day using the
industry specific weighted average cost of capital, or manufacturer
discount rate.
Standards can affect INPV in several ways including requiring
upfront investments in manufacturing capital as well as research and
development expenses, which increase the cost of production and
potentially alter manufacturer markups. DOE expects that manufacturers
may lose a portion of INPV due to standards. The potential loss in INPV
due to standards is calculated as the difference between INPV in the
base-case (absent new energy conservation standards) and the INPV in
the standards case (with new energy conservation standards in effect).
DOE examines a range of possible impacts on industry by modeling
various pricing strategies commercial and industrial fan manufacturers
may adopt following the adoption of new energy conservations standards
for commercial and industrial fans.
In addition to INPV, the MIA also calculates the manufacturer
markups, which are applied to the MPCs derived in the engineering
analysis, to arrive at the manufacturer selling prices (MSPs) in the
base case. For efficiency levels above the baseline, which require
manufacturers to redesign models that do not meet the potential
standards, conversion cost recovery markups were incorporated into the
MSP in addition to the manufacturer markup. These conversion markups
are based on the total conversion costs from the MIA and calculated to
allow manufacturers to recover their upfront conversion costs. They are
calculated by amortizing the conversion investment over the units
shipped throughout the analysis period that were redesigned to meet the
efficiency level being analyzed. The base case and standards case MSPs
were used as inputs for downstream analyses.
D. Life-Cycle Cost and Payback Period Analyses
The LCC and PBP analyses determine the economic impact of potential
standards on individual consumers, in the compliance year. The LCC is
the total cost of purchasing, installing and operating a commercial or
industrial fan over the course of its lifetime.
DOE determines the LCC by considering: (1) The total installed cost
to the consumer (which consists of manufacturer selling price,
distribution channel markups, and sales taxes); (2) the range of annual
energy consumption of commercial and industrial fans as they are used
in the field; (3) the operating cost of commercial and industrial fans
(e.g., energy cost); (4) equipment lifetime; and (5) a discount rate
that reflects the real consumer cost of capital and puts the LCC in
present-value terms. The PBP represents the number of years needed to
recover the increase in purchase price of higher-efficiency commercial
and industrial fans through savings in the operating cost. PBP is
calculated by dividing the incremental increase in installed cost of
the higher efficiency product, compared to the baseline product, by the
annual savings in operating costs.
For each considered standards case corresponding to each efficiency
level, DOE measures the change in LCC relative to the base case. The
base case is characterized by the distribution of equipment
efficiencies in the absence of new standards (i.e., what consumers
would have purchased in the compliance year in the absence of new
standards). In the standards cases, equipment with efficiency below the
standard levels ``roll-up'' to the standard level in the compliance
year.
To characterize annual fan operating hours, DOE established
statistical distributions of consumers of each fan category across
sectors (industry or commercial) and applications (clean air
ventilation, exhaust, combustion, drying, process air, process heating/
cooling, and others), which in turn determined the fan's operating
hours. Recognizing that several inputs to the determination of consumer
LCC and PBP are either variable or uncertain (e.g., annual energy
consumption, lifetime, discount rate), DOE conducts the LCC and PBP
analysis by modeling both the uncertainty and variability in the inputs
using Monte Carlo simulations and probability distributions.
In addition to characterizing several of the inputs to the analyses
with probability distributions, DOE developed a sample of individual
fan selections (i.e., a fan models and the operating flow and pressure
values for which they were purchased) using fan sales data provided by
AMCA \18\. By
[[Page 24846]]
developing this sample, DOE was able to perform the LCC and PBP
calculations for each fan selection to account for the variability in
energy consumption associated with each fan selection. DOE notes that
when developing the LCC sample, it did not include fan sales data for
which no flow and pressure selection information was available.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\18\ See description in LCC spreadsheet, LCC sample description
worksheet.
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The primary outputs of the LCC and PBP analyses are: (1) Average
LCC in each standards case; (2) average PBPs; (3) average LCC savings
at each standards case relative to the base case; and (4) the
percentage of consumers that experience a net benefit, have no impact,
or have a net cost for each fan group and efficiency level. The average
annual energy consumption derived in the LCC analysis is used as an
input in the NIA.
E. National Impact Analysis
The NIA estimates the national energy savings (NES) and the net
present value (NPV) of total consumer costs and savings expected to
result from potential new standards at each EL. DOE calculated NES and
NPV for each EL as the difference between a base case forecast (without
new standards) and the standards case forecast (with standards).
Cumulative energy savings are the sum of the annual NES determined for
the lifetime of a commercial or industrial fan shipped during a 30 year
analysis period assumed to start in 2019.\19\ Energy savings include
the full-fuel cycle energy savings (i.e., the energy needed to extract,
process, and deliver primary fuel sources such as coal and natural gas,
and the conversion and distribution losses of generating electricity
from those fuel sources). The NPV is the sum over time of the
discounted net savings each year, which consists of the difference
between total energy cost savings and increases in total equipment
costs. NPV results are reported for discount rates of 3 and 7 percent.
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\19\ The LCC and NIA spreadsheet provide results for a different
compliance year (2019, 2020, and 2021).
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To calculate the NES and NPV, DOE projected future shipments \20\
and efficiency distributions (for each EL) for each potential
commercial and industrial fan category. DOE recognizes the uncertainty
in projecting shipments and electricity prices; as a result the NIA
includes several different scenarios for each. Other inputs to the NIA
include the estimated commercial and industrial fan lifetime used in
the LCC analysis, manufacturer selling prices from the MIA, average
annual energy consumption, and efficiency distributions from the LCC.
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\20\ The ``shipments'' worksheet of the NIA spreadsheet presents
the scope of the analysis and the total shipments value in units for
the fans in scope.
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IV. Issues on Which DOE Seeks Public Comment
DOE is interested in receiving comment on all aspects of this
analysis. DOE is particularly interested in receiving comments and
views of interested parties concerning the following issues:
1. DOE requests comments on the equation expressing fan total
efficiency as presented in this notice, as a function of flow and total
pressure.
2. DOE requests comment on the values of the flow constant
(Q0) and total pressure constant (P0) used to
calculate the minimum fan total efficiency at a given operating point.
3. DOE requests comments on the default transmission efficiency
equation used in the FEI calculation.
4. DOE requests comments on the default motor losses assumptions
used in the FEI calculation.
5. DOE requests comments on how manufacturers determine/would
determine whether to redesign or eliminate a fan model that is not
compliant at an operating point or points at which it has been sold
previously.
6. DOE estimated the number of redesigns at each efficiency level
based on the sales data provided by AMCA. DOE recognizes that the AMCA
data does not include all commercial and industrial fan sales for the
industry, and that existing fans can operate at more selection points
than those at which they were sold as represented in the AMCA sales
database. DOE requests comments on whether the resulting total
conversion costs presented in the spreadsheets released with this NODA
are representative of the industry at the efficiency levels analyzed.
If not, how should the number of redesigns be adjusted to be
representative of the industry?
7. DOE requests additional information to allow quantifying
installation, repair, and maintenance costs for industrial and
commercial fans.
8. DOE requests additional information to allow quantifying
lifetimes for industrial and commercial fans.
9. DOE requests additional information to allow quantifying annual
operating hours for industrial and commercial fans.
10. DOE seeks inputs and comments on the estimates of flow and
total pressure operating points used in the energy use analysis.
11. DOE requests comments on how to account for consumers
purchasing fans without providing any selection data (i.e., design flow
and pressure values) in the LCC calculations.
12. DOE requests comment on determining the motor horsepower based
on 120 percent of the fan shaft input power when performing the energy
use calculation.
13. DOE requests comments on the method used in the LCC to identify
fans that could be considered substitutes.
14. DOE seeks comments and inputs regarding the use of typical fan
curves and efficiency curves in order to calculate fan shaft input
power at different flow and pressure values based on a fan selection's
performance data at a single given design point.
15. DOE seeks inputs to support the development of trends in fan
efficiency over time in the base case and in the standards cases.
The purpose of this NODA is to notify industry, manufacturers,
consumer groups, efficiency advocates, government agencies, and other
stakeholders of the publication of an analysis of potential energy
conservation standards for commercial and industrial fans. Stakeholders
should contact DOE for any additional information pertaining to the
analyses performed for this NODA.
Issued in Washington, DC, on April 21, 2015.
Kathleen B. Hogan,
Deputy Assistant Secretary for Energy Efficiency, Energy Efficiency and
Renewable Energy.
[FR Doc. 2015-10036 Filed 4-30-15; 8:45 am]
BILLING CODE 6450-01-P
