Tart Cherries Grown in the States of Michigan, et al.; Free and Restricted Percentages for the 2014-15 Crop Year for Tart Cherries, 8817-8821 [2015-03406]
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8817
Proposed Rules
Federal Register
Vol. 80, No. 33
Thursday, February 19, 2015
This section of the FEDERAL REGISTER
contains notices to the public of the proposed
issuance of rules and regulations. The
purpose of these notices is to give interested
persons an opportunity to participate in the
rule making prior to the adoption of the final
rules.
DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
Agricultural Marketing Service
7 CFR Part 930
[Doc. No. AMS–FV–14–0077; FV14–930–2
PR]
Tart Cherries Grown in the States of
Michigan, et al.; Free and Restricted
Percentages for the 2014–15 Crop Year
for Tart Cherries
Agricultural Marketing Service,
USDA.
ACTION: Proposed rule.
AGENCY:
This proposed rule would
implement a recommendation from the
Cherry Industry Administrative Board
(Board) to establish free and restricted
percentages for the 2014–15 crop year
under the marketing order for tart
cherries grown in the states of Michigan,
New York, Pennsylvania, Oregon, Utah,
Washington, and Wisconsin (order). The
Board locally administers the marketing
order and is comprised of producers and
handlers of tart cherries operating
within the production area. This action
would establish the proportion of tart
cherries from the 2014 crop which may
be handled in commercial outlets at 80
percent free and 20 percent restricted. In
addition, this action would increase the
carry-out volume of fruit to 50 million
pounds for this season. These
percentages should stabilize marketing
conditions by adjusting supply to meet
market demand and help improve
grower returns.
DATES: Comments must be received by
March 23, 2015.
ADDRESSES: Interested persons are
invited to submit written comments
concerning this proposal. Comments
must be sent to the Docket Clerk,
Marketing Order and Agreement
Division, Fruit and Vegetable Program,
AMS, USDA, 1400 Independence
Avenue SW., STOP 0237, Washington,
DC 20250–0237; Fax: (202) 720–8938; or
Internet: https://www.regulations.gov. All
comments should reference the
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SUMMARY:
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document number and the date and
page number of this issue of the Federal
Register and will be made available for
public inspection in the Office of the
Docket Clerk during regular business
hours, or can be viewed at: https://
www.regulations.gov. All comments
submitted in response to this proposal
will be included in the record and will
be made available to the public. Please
be advised that the identity of the
individuals or entities submitting the
comments will be made public on the
internet at the address provided above.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT:
Jennie M. Varela, Marketing Specialist,
or Christian D. Nissen, Regional
Director, Southeast Marketing Field
Office, Marketing Order and Agreement
Division, Fruit and Vegetable Program,
AMS, USDA; Telephone: (863) 324–
3375, Fax: (863) 291–8614, or Email:
Jennie.Varela@ams.usda.gov or
Christian.Nissen@ams.usda.gov.
Small businesses may request
information on complying with this
regulation by contacting Jeffrey Smutny,
Marketing Order and Agreement
Division, Fruit and Vegetable Program,
AMS, USDA, 1400 Independence
Avenue SW., STOP 0237, Washington,
DC 20250–0237; Telephone: (202) 720–
2491, Fax: (202) 720–8938, or Email:
Jeffrey.Smutney@ams.usda.gov.
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: This
proposal is issued under Marketing
Agreement and Order No. 930, both as
amended (7 CFR part 930), regulating
the handling of tart cherries produced in
the States of Michigan, New York,
Pennsylvania, Oregon, Utah,
Washington and Wisconsin, hereinafter
referred to as the ‘‘order.’’ The order is
effective under the Agricultural
Marketing Agreement Act of 1937, as
amended (7 U.S.C. 601–674), hereinafter
referred to as the ‘‘Act.’’
The Department of Agriculture
(USDA) is issuing this proposed rule in
conformance with Executive Orders
12866, 13563, and 13175.
This proposal has been reviewed
under Executive Order 12988, Civil
Justice Reform. Under the order
provisions now in effect, free and
restricted percentages may be
established for tart cherries handled
during the crop year. This proposed rule
would establish free and restricted
percentages for tart cherries for the
2014–15 crop year, beginning July 1,
2014, through June 30, 2015.
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The Act provides that administrative
proceedings must be exhausted before
parties may file suit in court. Under
section 608c(15)(A) of the Act, any
handler subject to an order may file
with USDA a petition stating that the
order, any provision of the order, or any
obligation imposed in connection with
the order is not in accordance with law
and request a modification of the order
or to be exempted therefrom. A handler
is afforded the opportunity for a hearing
on the petition. After the hearing, USDA
would rule on the petition. The Act
provides that the district court of the
United States in any district in which
the handler is an inhabitant, or has his
or her principal place of business, has
jurisdiction to review USDA’s ruling on
the petition, provided an action is filed
not later than 20 days after the date of
the entry of the ruling.
This proposed rule invites comments
on the establishment of free and
restricted percentages for the 2014–15
crop year. This action would establish
the proportion of tart cherries from the
2014 crop which may be handled in
commercial outlets at 80 percent free
and 20 percent restricted. In addition,
this action would increase the carry-out
volume of fruit to 50 million pounds for
calculation purposes for this season.
This action should stabilize marketing
conditions by adjusting supply to meet
market demand and help improve
grower returns. The change in carry-out
was recommended by the Board at a
meeting on June 26, 2014, and the final
percentages were recommended by the
Board at a meeting on September 11,
2014.
Section 930.51(a) of the order
provides authority to regulate volume
by designating free and restricted
percentages for any tart cherries
acquired by handlers in a given crop
year. Section 930.50 prescribes
procedures for computing an optimum
supply based on sales history and for
calculating these free and restricted
percentages. Free percentage volume
may be shipped to any market, while
restricted percentage volume must be
held by handlers in a primary or
secondary reserve, or be diverted or
used for exempt purposes as prescribed
in §§ 930.159 and 930.162 of the
regulations. These activities include, in
part, the development of new products,
sales into new markets, the
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development of export markets, and
charitable contributions.
Under § 930.52, only those districts
with an annual average production of at
least six million pounds are subject to
regulation and any district producing a
crop which is less than 50 percent of its
annual average is exempt. The regulated
districts for the 2014–2015 crop year
would be: District 1—Northern
Michigan; District 2—Central Michigan;
District 3—Southern Michigan; District
4—New York; District 7—Utah; District
8—Washington; and District 9—
Wisconsin. Districts 5 and 6 (Oregon
and Pennsylvania, respectively) would
not be regulated for the 2014–15 season.
Demand for tart cherries and tart
cherry products tend to be relatively
stable from year to year. Conversely,
annual tart cherry production can vary
greatly. In addition, tart cherries are
processed and can be stored and carried
over from crop year to crop year, further
impacting supply. As a result, supply
and demand for tart cherries are rarely
in balance.
Because demand for tart cherries is
inelastic, total sales volume is not very
responsive to changes in price.
However, prices are very sensitive to
changes in supply. As such, an
oversupply of cherries would have a
sharp negative effect on prices, driving
down grower returns. The Board, aware
of this economic relationship, focuses
on using the volume control provisions
in the order to balance supply and
demand to stabilize industry returns.
Pursuant to § 930.50 of the order, the
Board meets on or about July 1 to review
sales data, inventory data, current crop
forecasts and market conditions for the
upcoming season and, if necessary, to
recommend preliminary free and
restricted percentages if anticipated
supply would exceed demand. After
harvest is complete, but no later than
September 15, the Board meets again to
update their calculations using actual
production data, consider any necessary
adjustments to the preliminary
percentages, and determine if final free
and restricted percentages should be
recommended to the Secretary.
The Board uses sales history,
inventory, and production data to
determine whether there is a surplus,
and if so, how much volume should be
restricted to maintain optimum supply.
The optimum supply represents the
desirable volume of tart cherries that
should be available for sale in the
coming crop year. Optimum supply is
defined as the average free sales of the
prior three years plus desirable carryout inventory. Desirable carry-out is the
amount of fruit needed by the industry
to be carried into the succeeding crop
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year to meet marketing demand until
the new crop is available. Desirable
carry-out is set by the Board after
considering market circumstances and
needs. Section 930.50(a) specifies that
desirable carry-out can range from zero
to a maximum of 20 million pounds, but
also authorizes the Board to establish an
alternative carry-out figure with the
approval of the Secretary.
After the Board determines optimum
supply and desirable carry-out, it must
examine the current year’s available
volume to determine whether there is an
oversupply situation. Available volume
includes carry-in inventory (any
inventory available at the beginning of
the season) along with that season’s
production. If production is greater than
the optimum supply minus carry-in, the
difference is considered surplus. This
surplus tonnage is divided by the sum
of production in the regulated districts
to reach a restricted percentage. This
percentage must be held in reserve or
used for approved diversion activities,
such as exports.
The Board met on June 26, 2014, and
computed an optimum supply of 218
million pounds for the 2014–15 crop
year using the average of free sales for
the three previous seasons and a
desirable carry-out of 20 million
pounds. The Board then subtracted the
estimated carry-in of 81 million pounds
from the optimum supply to calculate
the production needed from the 2014–
15 crop to meet optimum supply. This
number, 137 million pounds, was
subtracted from USDA’s estimated
2014–15 production of 264 million
pounds to calculate a surplus of 127
million pounds of tart cherries. The
surplus minus the market growth factor
was then divided by the expected
production in the regulated districts
(261 million pounds) to reach a
preliminary restricted percentage of 41
percent for the 2014–15 crop year.
In discussing the calculations,
industry participants commented that a
carry-out of 20 million pounds would
not meet their needs at the end of the
season before the new crop is available.
To address that concern, the Board
recommended increasing the desirable
carry-out to 50 million pounds for the
2014–2015 season. This change
increased the optimum supply to 248
million pounds, reducing the surplus to
97 million pounds.
The Board also discussed whether the
three-year average was an accurate
estimate of supply needed for the
coming season considering the
substantial loss of supply in 2012 due
to weather. Including the use of
reserves, sales in 2012–13 reached only
123 million pounds, nearly 100 million
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pounds less than 2013–14 sales. Using
data from earlier seasons, the Board
agreed that 250 million pounds of free
supply is needed in a typical season and
voted to make an economic adjustment
of 52 million pounds to reach that level.
In addition, USDA’s ‘‘Guidelines for
Fruit, Vegetable, and Specialty Crop
Marketing Orders’’ specify that 110
percent of recent years’ sales should be
made available to primary markets each
season before recommendations for
volume regulation are approved. This
requirement is codified in § 930.50(g) of
the order, which specifies that in years
when restricted percentages are
established, the Board shall make
available tonnage equivalent to an
additional 10 percent of the average
sales of the prior three years for market
expansion (market growth factor). The
Board complied with this requirement
by adding 20 million pounds (198
million times 10 percent, rounded) to
the free supply.
The economic adjustment and market
growth factor further reduced the
preliminary surplus to 25 million
pounds. After these adjustments, the
preliminary restricted percentage was
recalculated as 10 percent (25 million
pounds divided by 261 million pounds).
The Board met again on September
11, 2014, to consider establishing final
volume regulation percentages for the
2014–15 season. The final percentages
are based on the Board’s reported
production figures and the supply and
demand information available in
September. The total production for the
2014–15 season was 297.7 million
pounds, 34 million pounds above
USDA’s June estimate. In addition,
growers diverted 0.2 million pounds in
the orchard, leaving 297.5 million
pounds available to market. Using the
actual production numbers, and
accounting for the recommended
increase in desirable carry-out and
economic adjustment, as well as the
market growth factor, the restricted
percentage was recalculated.
The Board subtracted the carry-in
figure used in June of 81 million pounds
from the optimum supply of 248 million
pounds to determine 167 million
pounds of 2014–15 production would
be necessary to reach optimum supply.
The Board subtracted the 167 million
pounds from the actual production of
298 million pounds, resulting in a
surplus of 131 million pounds of tart
cherries. The surplus was then reduced
by subtracting the economic adjustment
of 52 million pounds and the market
growth factor of 20 million pounds,
resulting in an adjusted surplus of 59
million pounds. The Board then divided
this final surplus by the actual
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production in the regulated districts
(295 million pounds) to calculate a
restricted percentage of 20 percent with
a corresponding free percentage of 80
8819
percent for the 2014–15 crop year, as
outlined in the following table:
Millions of
pounds
Final Calculations:
(1) Average sales of the prior three years .............................................................................................................................
(2) Plus desirable carry-out ....................................................................................................................................................
(3) Optimum supply calculated by the Board .........................................................................................................................
(4) Carry-in as of July 1, 2014 ...............................................................................................................................................
(5) Adjusted optimum supply (item 3 minus item 4) ..............................................................................................................
(6) Board reported production ................................................................................................................................................
(7) Surplus (item 6 minus item 5) ..........................................................................................................................................
(8) Total economic adjustments .............................................................................................................................................
(9) Market growth factor .........................................................................................................................................................
(10) Adjusted Surplus (item 7 minus items 8 and 9) ...............................................................................................................
(11) Crop estimate for regulated districts .................................................................................................................................
Final Percentages:
Percent
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Restricted (item 10 divided by item 11 × 100) .........................................................................................................................
Free (100 minus restricted percentage) ...................................................................................................................................
The primary purpose of setting
restricted percentages is an attempt to
bring supply and demand into balance.
If the primary market is oversupplied
with cherries, grower prices decline
substantially. Restricted percentages
have benefited grower returns and
helped stabilize the market as compared
to those seasons prior to the
implementation of the order. The Board
believes the available information
indicates that a restricted percentage
should be established for the 2014–15
crop year to avoid oversupplying the
market with tart cherries. Consequently,
based on its discussion of this issue and
the result of the above calculations, the
Board recommended final percentages
of 80 percent free and 20 percent
restricted by a vote of 16 in favor and
2 against.
Of the two Board members who
opposed the recommendation, one
stated that the industry should focus on
sales rather than restriction and the
other expressed concerns that some
segments would be more impacted by
the restriction than others.
Regarding maximizing sales, one
member noted that even storm-damaged
fruit had been bought for processing,
signaling that the processors still
needed fruit toward the end of harvest.
Other members, however, noted the
extra sales some farmers experienced
may have simply been due to gaps left
by the areas that had damage, which
reduced the amount of fruit available to
fully supply their processors.
Additionally, the economic adjustment
and market growth factor included in
the recommended restriction would
make additional fruit available for sales.
A member also noted that some
processors, such as those making pie
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198
50
248
81
167
298
131
52
20
59
295
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filling, are not likely to purchase excess
fruit and would have to restrict their
sales. Another believed this level of
restriction would signal to the
ingredient market that processed fruit
may be hard to obtain. However, others
stated that a preliminary restriction was
announced before harvest and all
processors, regardless of product
segment, are familiar with the process.
Also, though the restricted percentage
has increased since the preliminary
announcement in June, the total volume
of fruit available to the market remains
unchanged.
Finally, there were also some
comments regarding incorporating sales
of imported fruit into the demand
considerations and that rigid
interpretation of the supply formula
does not allow the Board to react to the
current market conditions. As the order
does not provide for reporting
processing of imported fruit or
regulating such fruit, there are no
reliable data on the issue. Others noted
that with the increased recommended
carry-out, the market growth factor, and
adjustment to the demand calculations,
the Board has taken steps toward
making enough fruit available to
continue current growth and have fruit
in reserve in case of another crop
disaster.
After reviewing the available data,
and considering the concerns expressed,
the Board determined that a 20 percent
restriction with a carry-out volume of 50
million pounds would meet sales needs
and establish some reserves without
oversupplying the market. Thus, the
Board recommended establishing final
percentages of 80 percent free and 20
percent restricted.
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20
80
Initial Regulatory Flexibility Analysis
Pursuant to requirements set forth in
the Regulatory Flexibility Act (RFA) (5
U.S.C. 601–612), the Agricultural
Marketing Service (AMS) has
considered the economic impact of this
action on small entities. Accordingly,
AMS has prepared this initial regulatory
flexibility analysis.
The purpose of the RFA is to fit
regulatory actions to the scale of
businesses subject to such actions in
order that small businesses will not be
unduly or disproportionately burdened.
Marketing orders issued pursuant to the
Act, and rules issued thereunder, are
unique in that they are brought about
through group action of essentially
small entities acting on their own
behalf.
There are approximately 600
producers of tart cherries in the
regulated area and approximately 40
handlers of tart cherries who are subject
to regulation under the order. Small
agricultural producers are defined by
the Small Business Administration
(SBA) as those having annual receipts of
less than $750,000 and small
agricultural service firms have been
defined as those having annual receipts
of less than $7,000,000 (13 CFR
121.201).
According to the National
Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS)
and Board data, the average annual
grower price for tart cherries during the
2013–14 season was $0.35 per pound,
and total shipments were around 289
million pounds. Therefore, average
receipts for tart cherry producers were
around $168,800, well below the SBA
threshold for small producers. In 2014,
The Food Institute estimated an f.o.b.
price of $0.96 per pound for frozen tart
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cherries, which make up the majority of
processed tart cherries. Using this data,
average annual handler receipts were
about $6.9 million, which is also below
the SBA threshold for small agricultural
service firms. Assuming a normal
distribution, the majority of producers
and handlers of tart cherries may be
classified as small entities.
The tart cherry industry in the United
States is characterized by wide annual
fluctuations in production. According to
NASS, tart cherry production in 2011
was 232 million pounds, 85 million
pounds in 2012, and in 2013,
production was 294 million pounds.
Because of these fluctuations, the
supply and demand for tart cherries are
rarely equal.
Demand for tart cherries is inelastic,
meaning changes in price have a
minimal effect on total sales volume.
However, prices are very sensitive to
changes in supply, and grower prices
vary widely in response to the large
swings in annual supply, with prices
ranging from a low of 7.3 cents in 1987
to a high of 46.4 cents in 1991.
Because of this relationship between
supply and price, oversupplying the
market with tart cherries would have a
sharp negative effect on prices, driving
down grower returns. The Board, aware
of this economic relationship, focuses
on using the volume control authority in
the order in an effort to balance supply
and demand in order to stabilize
industry returns. This authority allows
the industry to set free and restricted
percentages as a way to bring supply
and demand into balance. Free
percentage cherries can be marketed by
handlers to any outlet, while restricted
percentage volume must be held by
handlers in reserve, diverted or used for
exempted purposes.
This proposal would establish free
and restricted percentages using an
increased carry-out volume of 50
million pounds for the 2014–15 crop
year under the order for tart cherries.
This action would control the supply of
tart cherries by establishing percentages
of 80 percent free and 20 percent
restricted for the 2014–15 crop year.
These percentages should stabilize
marketing conditions by adjusting
supply to meet market demand and help
improve grower returns. The action
would regulate tart cherries handled in
Michigan, New York, Utah, Washington,
and Wisconsin. The authority for this
action is provided for in §§ 930.51(a)
and 930.52 of the order. The Board
recommended this action at a meeting
on September 11, 2014.
This action would result in some fruit
being diverted from the primary
domestic markets. However, as
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mentioned earlier, the USDA’s
‘‘Guidelines for Fruit, Vegetable, and
Specialty Crop Marketing Orders’’
specify that 110 percent of recent years’
sales should be made available to
primary markets each season before
recommendations for volume regulation
are approved. The quantity that would
be available under this rule is greater
than 110 percent of the quantity
shipped in the prior three years.
In addition, there are secondary uses
available for restricted fruit, including
the development of new products, sales
into new markets, the development of
export markets, and being placed in
reserve. While these alternatives may
provide different levels of return than
the sales to primary markets, they play
an important role for the industry. The
areas of new products, new markets,
and the development of export markets
utilize restricted fruit to develop and
expand the markets for tart cherries. In
2011–12, the last season there was a
restriction, these activities accounted for
more 39 million pounds in sales, 14
million of which were exports.
Placing tart cherries into reserves is
also a key part of balancing supply and
demand. Although the industry must
bear the handling and storage costs for
fruit in reserve, reserves stored in large
crop years are used to supplement
supplies in short crop years. The
reserves allow the industry to mitigate
the impact of oversupply in large crop
years, while allowing the industry to
maintain and supply markets in years
where production falls below demand.
Further, storage and handling costs are
more than offset by the increase in price
when moving from a large crop to a
short crop year.
In addition, the Board recommended
an increased carry-out of 50 million
pounds and made a demand adjustment
of 52 million pounds in order to make
the regulation less restrictive. Even with
the recommended restriction, over 300
million pounds of fruit would be
available to the domestic market.
Consequently, it is not anticipated that
this action would unduly burden
growers or handlers.
While this action could result in some
additional costs to the industry, these
costs are more than outweighed by the
benefits. The purpose of setting
restricted percentages is to attempt to
bring supply and demand into balance.
If the primary market (domestic) is
oversupplied with cherries, grower
prices decline substantially. Without
volume control, the primary market
would likely be oversupplied, resulting
in lower grower prices.
The three districts in Michigan, along
with the districts in New York, Utah,
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Washington, and Wisconsin are the
restricted areas for this crop year with
a combined total production of 295
million pounds. A 20 percent restriction
means 236 million pounds would be
available to be shipped to primary
markets from these five states. The 236
million pounds from the restricted
districts, nearly 3 million pounds from
the unrestricted districts (Oregon and
Pennsylvania), and the 81 million
pound carry-in inventory would make a
total of 320 million pounds available as
free tonnage for the primary markets. In
comparison, the 12 percent restriction
in 2011–2012 made just under 262
million pounds available.
Prior to the implementation of the
order, grower price often did not come
close to covering the cost of production.
The most recent costs of production
determined by representatives of
Michigan State University are an
estimated $0.33 per pound. To assess
the impact that volume control has on
the prices growers receive for their
product, an econometric model has been
developed. Based on the model, the use
of volume control would have a positive
impact on grower returns for this crop
year. With volume control, grower
prices are estimated to be approximately
$0.03 per pound higher than without
restrictions.
In addition, absent volume control,
the industry could start to build large
amounts of unwanted inventories.
These inventories would have a
depressing effect on grower prices. The
econometric model shows for every 1
million-pound increase in carry-in
inventories, a decrease in grower prices
of $0.0037 per pound occurs.
Retail demand is assumed to be
highly inelastic, which indicates that
changes in price do not result in
significant changes in the quantity
demanded. Consumer prices largely do
not reflect fluctuations in cherry
supplies. Therefore, this action should
have little or no effect on consumer
prices and should not result in a
reduction in retail sales.
The free and restricted percentages
established by this rule would provide
the market with optimum supply and
apply uniformly to all regulated
handlers in the industry, regardless of
size. As the restriction represents a
percentage of a handler’s volume, the
costs, when applicable, are
proportionate and should not place an
extra burden on small entities as
compared to large entities.
The stabilizing effects of this action
would benefit all handlers by helping
them maintain and expand markets,
despite seasonal supply fluctuations.
Likewise, price stability positively
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impacts all growers and handlers by
allowing them to better anticipate the
revenues their tart cherries would
generate. Growers and handlers,
regardless of size, would benefit from
the stabilizing effects of this restriction.
In addition, the increased carry-out
should provide processors enough
supply to meet market needs going into
the next season.
The Board considered some
alternatives in its preliminary restriction
discussions that affected this
recommended action. The first
alternative concerned the average sales
in estimating demand for the coming
season, and the second alternative
regarded the recommended carry-out
figure.
Regarding demand, the Board began
with the actual sales average of 198
million pounds. There was concern,
however that this value, which
incorporated the weather-related crop
failure of 2012, would result in an overrestrictive calculation. After considering
options in the range of 24 to 52 million
pounds, the Board determined that an
adjustment of 52 million pounds, to
reach an average demand of 250 million
pounds, was most appropriate for the
industry. Thus the other alternatives
were rejected and the Board
recommended the 52 million pound
economic adjustment.
Regarding the carry-out value, the
Board considered keeping this value at
the order’s 20 million pound maximum.
However, many noted that the industry
now regularly carries over more volume
than in the past to keep its expanded
product lines supplied at the end of the
season. One member noted that even at
the end of the disaster season, there
were 17 million pounds carried out.
Another noted that the 81 million
pound carry-in this season was seen as
burdensome. Others were concerned
that in addition to the previous
adjustment, too high of a carry-out
figure might discourage using reserves
to protect the industry from another
disaster. The Board considered 60
million pounds and 30 million pounds,
but these were considered respectively
too large and too restrictive and thus
were rejected. The Board then reached
a consensus and recommended the
Secretary increase the maximum carryout to 50 million pounds for the 2014–
2015 season alone.
In accordance with the Paperwork
Reduction Act of 1995 (44 U.S.C.
Chapter 35), the order’s information
collection requirements have been
previously approved by the Office of
Management and Budget (OMB) and
assigned OMB No. 0581–0177, Tart
Cherries Grown in the States of MI, NY,
VerDate Sep<11>2014
16:12 Feb 18, 2015
Jkt 235001
PA, OR, UT, WA, and WI. No changes
in those requirements as a result of this
action are necessary. Should any
changes become necessary, they would
be submitted to OMB for approval.
This action would not impose any
additional reporting or recordkeeping
requirements on either small or large
tart cherry handlers. As with all Federal
marketing order programs, reports and
forms are periodically reviewed to
reduce information requirements and
duplication by industry and public
sector agencies.
AMS is committed to complying with
the E-Government Act, to promote the
use of the internet and other
information technologies to provide
increased opportunities for citizen
access to Government information and
services, and for other purposes.
USDA has not identified any relevant
Federal rules that duplicate, overlap or
conflict with this proposed rule.
In addition, the Board’s meeting was
widely publicized throughout the tart
cherry industry and all interested
persons were invited to attend the
meeting and participate in Board
deliberations on all issues. Like all
Board meetings, the June 26, 2014, and
September 11, 2014, meetings were
public meetings and all entities, both
large and small, were able to express
views on this issue. Finally, interested
persons are invited to submit comments
on this proposed rule, including the
regulatory and informational impacts of
this action on small businesses.
A small business guide on complying
with fruit, vegetable, and specialty crop
marketing agreements and orders may
be viewed at: https://www.ams.usda.gov/
MarketingOrdersSmallBusinessGuide.
Any questions about the compliance
guide should be sent to Jeffrey Smutny
at the previously mentioned address in
the FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT
section.
A 30-day comment period is provided
to allow interested persons to respond
to this proposal. Thirty days is deemed
appropriate because this proposed rule
would need to be in place as soon as
possible since handlers are already
shipping tart cherries from the 2014–15
crop. All written comments timely
received will be considered before a
final determination is made on this
matter.
List of Subjects in 7 CFR Part 930
Marketing agreements, Reporting and
recordkeeping requirements, Tart
cherries.
For the reasons set forth in the
preamble, 7 CFR part 930 is proposed to
be amended as follows:
PO 00000
Frm 00005
Fmt 4702
Sfmt 4702
8821
PART 930—TART CHERRIES GROWN
IN THE STATES OF MICHIGAN, NEW
YORK, PENNSYLVANIA, OREGON,
UTAH, WASHINGTON, AND
WISCONSIN
1. The authority citation for 7 CFR
part 930 continues to read as follows:
■
Authority: 7 U.S.C. 601–674.
2. Section 930.151 is added to read as
follows:
■
§ 930.151
Desirable carry-out inventory
For the crop year beginning on July 1,
2014, the desirable carry-out inventory,
for the purposes of determining an
optimum supply volume, will be 50
million pounds.
■ 3. Section 930.256 is added to read as
follows:
§ 930.256 Free and restricted percentages
for the 2014–15 crop year.
The percentages for tart cherries
handled by handlers during the crop
year beginning on July 1, 2014, which
shall be free and restricted, respectively,
are designated as follows: Free
percentage, 80 percent and restricted
percentage, 20 percent.
Dated: February 11, 2015.
Rex A. Barnes,
Associate Administrator, Agricultural
Marketing Service.
[FR Doc. 2015–03406 Filed 2–18–15; 8:45 am]
BILLING CODE P
DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION
Federal Aviation Administration
14 CFR Part 39
[Docket No. FAA–2006–26235; Directorate
Identifier 2006–CE–065–AD]
RIN 2120–AA64
Airworthiness Directives; SOCATA
Airplanes
Federal Aviation
Administration (FAA), Department of
Transportation (DOT).
ACTION: Notice of proposed rulemaking
(NPRM).
AGENCY:
We propose to adopt a new
airworthiness directive (AD) for
SOCATA Model TBM 700 airplanes
(type certificate previously held by
EADS SOCATA) that would revise AD
2007–04–13. This proposed AD results
from mandatory continuing
airworthiness information (MCAI)
originated by an aviation authority of
another country to identify and correct
an unsafe condition on an aviation
product. The MCAI describes the unsafe
SUMMARY:
E:\FR\FM\19FEP1.SGM
19FEP1
Agencies
[Federal Register Volume 80, Number 33 (Thursday, February 19, 2015)]
[Proposed Rules]
[Pages 8817-8821]
From the Federal Register Online via the Government Printing Office [www.gpo.gov]
[FR Doc No: 2015-03406]
========================================================================
Proposed Rules
Federal Register
________________________________________________________________________
This section of the FEDERAL REGISTER contains notices to the public of
the proposed issuance of rules and regulations. The purpose of these
notices is to give interested persons an opportunity to participate in
the rule making prior to the adoption of the final rules.
========================================================================
Federal Register / Vol. 80, No. 33 / Thursday, February 19, 2015 /
Proposed Rules
[[Page 8817]]
DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
Agricultural Marketing Service
7 CFR Part 930
[Doc. No. AMS-FV-14-0077; FV14-930-2 PR]
Tart Cherries Grown in the States of Michigan, et al.; Free and
Restricted Percentages for the 2014-15 Crop Year for Tart Cherries
AGENCY: Agricultural Marketing Service, USDA.
ACTION: Proposed rule.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
SUMMARY: This proposed rule would implement a recommendation from the
Cherry Industry Administrative Board (Board) to establish free and
restricted percentages for the 2014-15 crop year under the marketing
order for tart cherries grown in the states of Michigan, New York,
Pennsylvania, Oregon, Utah, Washington, and Wisconsin (order). The
Board locally administers the marketing order and is comprised of
producers and handlers of tart cherries operating within the production
area. This action would establish the proportion of tart cherries from
the 2014 crop which may be handled in commercial outlets at 80 percent
free and 20 percent restricted. In addition, this action would increase
the carry-out volume of fruit to 50 million pounds for this season.
These percentages should stabilize marketing conditions by adjusting
supply to meet market demand and help improve grower returns.
DATES: Comments must be received by March 23, 2015.
ADDRESSES: Interested persons are invited to submit written comments
concerning this proposal. Comments must be sent to the Docket Clerk,
Marketing Order and Agreement Division, Fruit and Vegetable Program,
AMS, USDA, 1400 Independence Avenue SW., STOP 0237, Washington, DC
20250-0237; Fax: (202) 720-8938; or Internet: https://www.regulations.gov. All comments should reference the document number
and the date and page number of this issue of the Federal Register and
will be made available for public inspection in the Office of the
Docket Clerk during regular business hours, or can be viewed at: https://www.regulations.gov. All comments submitted in response to this
proposal will be included in the record and will be made available to
the public. Please be advised that the identity of the individuals or
entities submitting the comments will be made public on the internet at
the address provided above.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Jennie M. Varela, Marketing
Specialist, or Christian D. Nissen, Regional Director, Southeast
Marketing Field Office, Marketing Order and Agreement Division, Fruit
and Vegetable Program, AMS, USDA; Telephone: (863) 324-3375, Fax: (863)
291-8614, or Email: Jennie.Varela@ams.usda.gov or
Christian.Nissen@ams.usda.gov.
Small businesses may request information on complying with this
regulation by contacting Jeffrey Smutny, Marketing Order and Agreement
Division, Fruit and Vegetable Program, AMS, USDA, 1400 Independence
Avenue SW., STOP 0237, Washington, DC 20250-0237; Telephone: (202) 720-
2491, Fax: (202) 720-8938, or Email: Jeffrey.Smutney@ams.usda.gov.
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: This proposal is issued under Marketing
Agreement and Order No. 930, both as amended (7 CFR part 930),
regulating the handling of tart cherries produced in the States of
Michigan, New York, Pennsylvania, Oregon, Utah, Washington and
Wisconsin, hereinafter referred to as the ``order.'' The order is
effective under the Agricultural Marketing Agreement Act of 1937, as
amended (7 U.S.C. 601-674), hereinafter referred to as the ``Act.''
The Department of Agriculture (USDA) is issuing this proposed rule
in conformance with Executive Orders 12866, 13563, and 13175.
This proposal has been reviewed under Executive Order 12988, Civil
Justice Reform. Under the order provisions now in effect, free and
restricted percentages may be established for tart cherries handled
during the crop year. This proposed rule would establish free and
restricted percentages for tart cherries for the 2014-15 crop year,
beginning July 1, 2014, through June 30, 2015.
The Act provides that administrative proceedings must be exhausted
before parties may file suit in court. Under section 608c(15)(A) of the
Act, any handler subject to an order may file with USDA a petition
stating that the order, any provision of the order, or any obligation
imposed in connection with the order is not in accordance with law and
request a modification of the order or to be exempted therefrom. A
handler is afforded the opportunity for a hearing on the petition.
After the hearing, USDA would rule on the petition. The Act provides
that the district court of the United States in any district in which
the handler is an inhabitant, or has his or her principal place of
business, has jurisdiction to review USDA's ruling on the petition,
provided an action is filed not later than 20 days after the date of
the entry of the ruling.
This proposed rule invites comments on the establishment of free
and restricted percentages for the 2014-15 crop year. This action would
establish the proportion of tart cherries from the 2014 crop which may
be handled in commercial outlets at 80 percent free and 20 percent
restricted. In addition, this action would increase the carry-out
volume of fruit to 50 million pounds for calculation purposes for this
season. This action should stabilize marketing conditions by adjusting
supply to meet market demand and help improve grower returns. The
change in carry-out was recommended by the Board at a meeting on June
26, 2014, and the final percentages were recommended by the Board at a
meeting on September 11, 2014.
Section 930.51(a) of the order provides authority to regulate
volume by designating free and restricted percentages for any tart
cherries acquired by handlers in a given crop year. Section 930.50
prescribes procedures for computing an optimum supply based on sales
history and for calculating these free and restricted percentages. Free
percentage volume may be shipped to any market, while restricted
percentage volume must be held by handlers in a primary or secondary
reserve, or be diverted or used for exempt purposes as prescribed in
Sec. Sec. 930.159 and 930.162 of the regulations. These activities
include, in part, the development of new products, sales into new
markets, the
[[Page 8818]]
development of export markets, and charitable contributions.
Under Sec. 930.52, only those districts with an annual average
production of at least six million pounds are subject to regulation and
any district producing a crop which is less than 50 percent of its
annual average is exempt. The regulated districts for the 2014-2015
crop year would be: District 1--Northern Michigan; District 2--Central
Michigan; District 3--Southern Michigan; District 4--New York; District
7--Utah; District 8--Washington; and District 9--Wisconsin. Districts 5
and 6 (Oregon and Pennsylvania, respectively) would not be regulated
for the 2014-15 season.
Demand for tart cherries and tart cherry products tend to be
relatively stable from year to year. Conversely, annual tart cherry
production can vary greatly. In addition, tart cherries are processed
and can be stored and carried over from crop year to crop year, further
impacting supply. As a result, supply and demand for tart cherries are
rarely in balance.
Because demand for tart cherries is inelastic, total sales volume
is not very responsive to changes in price. However, prices are very
sensitive to changes in supply. As such, an oversupply of cherries
would have a sharp negative effect on prices, driving down grower
returns. The Board, aware of this economic relationship, focuses on
using the volume control provisions in the order to balance supply and
demand to stabilize industry returns.
Pursuant to Sec. 930.50 of the order, the Board meets on or about
July 1 to review sales data, inventory data, current crop forecasts and
market conditions for the upcoming season and, if necessary, to
recommend preliminary free and restricted percentages if anticipated
supply would exceed demand. After harvest is complete, but no later
than September 15, the Board meets again to update their calculations
using actual production data, consider any necessary adjustments to the
preliminary percentages, and determine if final free and restricted
percentages should be recommended to the Secretary.
The Board uses sales history, inventory, and production data to
determine whether there is a surplus, and if so, how much volume should
be restricted to maintain optimum supply. The optimum supply represents
the desirable volume of tart cherries that should be available for sale
in the coming crop year. Optimum supply is defined as the average free
sales of the prior three years plus desirable carry-out inventory.
Desirable carry-out is the amount of fruit needed by the industry to be
carried into the succeeding crop year to meet marketing demand until
the new crop is available. Desirable carry-out is set by the Board
after considering market circumstances and needs. Section 930.50(a)
specifies that desirable carry-out can range from zero to a maximum of
20 million pounds, but also authorizes the Board to establish an
alternative carry-out figure with the approval of the Secretary.
After the Board determines optimum supply and desirable carry-out,
it must examine the current year's available volume to determine
whether there is an oversupply situation. Available volume includes
carry-in inventory (any inventory available at the beginning of the
season) along with that season's production. If production is greater
than the optimum supply minus carry-in, the difference is considered
surplus. This surplus tonnage is divided by the sum of production in
the regulated districts to reach a restricted percentage. This
percentage must be held in reserve or used for approved diversion
activities, such as exports.
The Board met on June 26, 2014, and computed an optimum supply of
218 million pounds for the 2014-15 crop year using the average of free
sales for the three previous seasons and a desirable carry-out of 20
million pounds. The Board then subtracted the estimated carry-in of 81
million pounds from the optimum supply to calculate the production
needed from the 2014-15 crop to meet optimum supply. This number, 137
million pounds, was subtracted from USDA's estimated 2014-15 production
of 264 million pounds to calculate a surplus of 127 million pounds of
tart cherries. The surplus minus the market growth factor was then
divided by the expected production in the regulated districts (261
million pounds) to reach a preliminary restricted percentage of 41
percent for the 2014-15 crop year.
In discussing the calculations, industry participants commented
that a carry-out of 20 million pounds would not meet their needs at the
end of the season before the new crop is available. To address that
concern, the Board recommended increasing the desirable carry-out to 50
million pounds for the 2014-2015 season. This change increased the
optimum supply to 248 million pounds, reducing the surplus to 97
million pounds.
The Board also discussed whether the three-year average was an
accurate estimate of supply needed for the coming season considering
the substantial loss of supply in 2012 due to weather. Including the
use of reserves, sales in 2012-13 reached only 123 million pounds,
nearly 100 million pounds less than 2013-14 sales. Using data from
earlier seasons, the Board agreed that 250 million pounds of free
supply is needed in a typical season and voted to make an economic
adjustment of 52 million pounds to reach that level.
In addition, USDA's ``Guidelines for Fruit, Vegetable, and
Specialty Crop Marketing Orders'' specify that 110 percent of recent
years' sales should be made available to primary markets each season
before recommendations for volume regulation are approved. This
requirement is codified in Sec. 930.50(g) of the order, which
specifies that in years when restricted percentages are established,
the Board shall make available tonnage equivalent to an additional 10
percent of the average sales of the prior three years for market
expansion (market growth factor). The Board complied with this
requirement by adding 20 million pounds (198 million times 10 percent,
rounded) to the free supply.
The economic adjustment and market growth factor further reduced
the preliminary surplus to 25 million pounds. After these adjustments,
the preliminary restricted percentage was recalculated as 10 percent
(25 million pounds divided by 261 million pounds).
The Board met again on September 11, 2014, to consider establishing
final volume regulation percentages for the 2014-15 season. The final
percentages are based on the Board's reported production figures and
the supply and demand information available in September. The total
production for the 2014-15 season was 297.7 million pounds, 34 million
pounds above USDA's June estimate. In addition, growers diverted 0.2
million pounds in the orchard, leaving 297.5 million pounds available
to market. Using the actual production numbers, and accounting for the
recommended increase in desirable carry-out and economic adjustment, as
well as the market growth factor, the restricted percentage was
recalculated.
The Board subtracted the carry-in figure used in June of 81 million
pounds from the optimum supply of 248 million pounds to determine 167
million pounds of 2014-15 production would be necessary to reach
optimum supply. The Board subtracted the 167 million pounds from the
actual production of 298 million pounds, resulting in a surplus of 131
million pounds of tart cherries. The surplus was then reduced by
subtracting the economic adjustment of 52 million pounds and the market
growth factor of 20 million pounds, resulting in an adjusted surplus of
59 million pounds. The Board then divided this final surplus by the
actual
[[Page 8819]]
production in the regulated districts (295 million pounds) to calculate
a restricted percentage of 20 percent with a corresponding free
percentage of 80 percent for the 2014-15 crop year, as outlined in the
following table:
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Millions of
pounds
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Final Calculations:
(1) Average sales of the prior three years....... 198
(2) Plus desirable carry-out..................... 50
(3) Optimum supply calculated by the Board....... 248
(4) Carry-in as of July 1, 2014.................. 81
(5) Adjusted optimum supply (item 3 minus item 4) 167
(6) Board reported production.................... 298
(7) Surplus (item 6 minus item 5)................ 131
(8) Total economic adjustments................... 52
(9) Market growth factor......................... 20
(10) Adjusted Surplus (item 7 minus items 8 and 9) 59
(11) Crop estimate for regulated districts........ 295
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Final Percentages: Percent
-----------------
Restricted (item 10 divided by item 11 x 100)..... 20
Free (100 minus restricted percentage)............ 80
------------------------------------------------------------------------
The primary purpose of setting restricted percentages is an attempt
to bring supply and demand into balance. If the primary market is
oversupplied with cherries, grower prices decline substantially.
Restricted percentages have benefited grower returns and helped
stabilize the market as compared to those seasons prior to the
implementation of the order. The Board believes the available
information indicates that a restricted percentage should be
established for the 2014-15 crop year to avoid oversupplying the market
with tart cherries. Consequently, based on its discussion of this issue
and the result of the above calculations, the Board recommended final
percentages of 80 percent free and 20 percent restricted by a vote of
16 in favor and 2 against.
Of the two Board members who opposed the recommendation, one stated
that the industry should focus on sales rather than restriction and the
other expressed concerns that some segments would be more impacted by
the restriction than others.
Regarding maximizing sales, one member noted that even storm-
damaged fruit had been bought for processing, signaling that the
processors still needed fruit toward the end of harvest. Other members,
however, noted the extra sales some farmers experienced may have simply
been due to gaps left by the areas that had damage, which reduced the
amount of fruit available to fully supply their processors.
Additionally, the economic adjustment and market growth factor included
in the recommended restriction would make additional fruit available
for sales.
A member also noted that some processors, such as those making pie
filling, are not likely to purchase excess fruit and would have to
restrict their sales. Another believed this level of restriction would
signal to the ingredient market that processed fruit may be hard to
obtain. However, others stated that a preliminary restriction was
announced before harvest and all processors, regardless of product
segment, are familiar with the process. Also, though the restricted
percentage has increased since the preliminary announcement in June,
the total volume of fruit available to the market remains unchanged.
Finally, there were also some comments regarding incorporating
sales of imported fruit into the demand considerations and that rigid
interpretation of the supply formula does not allow the Board to react
to the current market conditions. As the order does not provide for
reporting processing of imported fruit or regulating such fruit, there
are no reliable data on the issue. Others noted that with the increased
recommended carry-out, the market growth factor, and adjustment to the
demand calculations, the Board has taken steps toward making enough
fruit available to continue current growth and have fruit in reserve in
case of another crop disaster.
After reviewing the available data, and considering the concerns
expressed, the Board determined that a 20 percent restriction with a
carry-out volume of 50 million pounds would meet sales needs and
establish some reserves without oversupplying the market. Thus, the
Board recommended establishing final percentages of 80 percent free and
20 percent restricted.
Initial Regulatory Flexibility Analysis
Pursuant to requirements set forth in the Regulatory Flexibility
Act (RFA) (5 U.S.C. 601-612), the Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS)
has considered the economic impact of this action on small entities.
Accordingly, AMS has prepared this initial regulatory flexibility
analysis.
The purpose of the RFA is to fit regulatory actions to the scale of
businesses subject to such actions in order that small businesses will
not be unduly or disproportionately burdened. Marketing orders issued
pursuant to the Act, and rules issued thereunder, are unique in that
they are brought about through group action of essentially small
entities acting on their own behalf.
There are approximately 600 producers of tart cherries in the
regulated area and approximately 40 handlers of tart cherries who are
subject to regulation under the order. Small agricultural producers are
defined by the Small Business Administration (SBA) as those having
annual receipts of less than $750,000 and small agricultural service
firms have been defined as those having annual receipts of less than
$7,000,000 (13 CFR 121.201).
According to the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS)
and Board data, the average annual grower price for tart cherries
during the 2013-14 season was $0.35 per pound, and total shipments were
around 289 million pounds. Therefore, average receipts for tart cherry
producers were around $168,800, well below the SBA threshold for small
producers. In 2014, The Food Institute estimated an f.o.b. price of
$0.96 per pound for frozen tart
[[Page 8820]]
cherries, which make up the majority of processed tart cherries. Using
this data, average annual handler receipts were about $6.9 million,
which is also below the SBA threshold for small agricultural service
firms. Assuming a normal distribution, the majority of producers and
handlers of tart cherries may be classified as small entities.
The tart cherry industry in the United States is characterized by
wide annual fluctuations in production. According to NASS, tart cherry
production in 2011 was 232 million pounds, 85 million pounds in 2012,
and in 2013, production was 294 million pounds. Because of these
fluctuations, the supply and demand for tart cherries are rarely equal.
Demand for tart cherries is inelastic, meaning changes in price
have a minimal effect on total sales volume. However, prices are very
sensitive to changes in supply, and grower prices vary widely in
response to the large swings in annual supply, with prices ranging from
a low of 7.3 cents in 1987 to a high of 46.4 cents in 1991.
Because of this relationship between supply and price,
oversupplying the market with tart cherries would have a sharp negative
effect on prices, driving down grower returns. The Board, aware of this
economic relationship, focuses on using the volume control authority in
the order in an effort to balance supply and demand in order to
stabilize industry returns. This authority allows the industry to set
free and restricted percentages as a way to bring supply and demand
into balance. Free percentage cherries can be marketed by handlers to
any outlet, while restricted percentage volume must be held by handlers
in reserve, diverted or used for exempted purposes.
This proposal would establish free and restricted percentages using
an increased carry-out volume of 50 million pounds for the 2014-15 crop
year under the order for tart cherries. This action would control the
supply of tart cherries by establishing percentages of 80 percent free
and 20 percent restricted for the 2014-15 crop year. These percentages
should stabilize marketing conditions by adjusting supply to meet
market demand and help improve grower returns. The action would
regulate tart cherries handled in Michigan, New York, Utah, Washington,
and Wisconsin. The authority for this action is provided for in
Sec. Sec. 930.51(a) and 930.52 of the order. The Board recommended
this action at a meeting on September 11, 2014.
This action would result in some fruit being diverted from the
primary domestic markets. However, as mentioned earlier, the USDA's
``Guidelines for Fruit, Vegetable, and Specialty Crop Marketing
Orders'' specify that 110 percent of recent years' sales should be made
available to primary markets each season before recommendations for
volume regulation are approved. The quantity that would be available
under this rule is greater than 110 percent of the quantity shipped in
the prior three years.
In addition, there are secondary uses available for restricted
fruit, including the development of new products, sales into new
markets, the development of export markets, and being placed in
reserve. While these alternatives may provide different levels of
return than the sales to primary markets, they play an important role
for the industry. The areas of new products, new markets, and the
development of export markets utilize restricted fruit to develop and
expand the markets for tart cherries. In 2011-12, the last season there
was a restriction, these activities accounted for more 39 million
pounds in sales, 14 million of which were exports.
Placing tart cherries into reserves is also a key part of balancing
supply and demand. Although the industry must bear the handling and
storage costs for fruit in reserve, reserves stored in large crop years
are used to supplement supplies in short crop years. The reserves allow
the industry to mitigate the impact of oversupply in large crop years,
while allowing the industry to maintain and supply markets in years
where production falls below demand. Further, storage and handling
costs are more than offset by the increase in price when moving from a
large crop to a short crop year.
In addition, the Board recommended an increased carry-out of 50
million pounds and made a demand adjustment of 52 million pounds in
order to make the regulation less restrictive. Even with the
recommended restriction, over 300 million pounds of fruit would be
available to the domestic market. Consequently, it is not anticipated
that this action would unduly burden growers or handlers.
While this action could result in some additional costs to the
industry, these costs are more than outweighed by the benefits. The
purpose of setting restricted percentages is to attempt to bring supply
and demand into balance. If the primary market (domestic) is
oversupplied with cherries, grower prices decline substantially.
Without volume control, the primary market would likely be
oversupplied, resulting in lower grower prices.
The three districts in Michigan, along with the districts in New
York, Utah, Washington, and Wisconsin are the restricted areas for this
crop year with a combined total production of 295 million pounds. A 20
percent restriction means 236 million pounds would be available to be
shipped to primary markets from these five states. The 236 million
pounds from the restricted districts, nearly 3 million pounds from the
unrestricted districts (Oregon and Pennsylvania), and the 81 million
pound carry-in inventory would make a total of 320 million pounds
available as free tonnage for the primary markets. In comparison, the
12 percent restriction in 2011-2012 made just under 262 million pounds
available.
Prior to the implementation of the order, grower price often did
not come close to covering the cost of production. The most recent
costs of production determined by representatives of Michigan State
University are an estimated $0.33 per pound. To assess the impact that
volume control has on the prices growers receive for their product, an
econometric model has been developed. Based on the model, the use of
volume control would have a positive impact on grower returns for this
crop year. With volume control, grower prices are estimated to be
approximately $0.03 per pound higher than without restrictions.
In addition, absent volume control, the industry could start to
build large amounts of unwanted inventories. These inventories would
have a depressing effect on grower prices. The econometric model shows
for every 1 million-pound increase in carry-in inventories, a decrease
in grower prices of $0.0037 per pound occurs.
Retail demand is assumed to be highly inelastic, which indicates
that changes in price do not result in significant changes in the
quantity demanded. Consumer prices largely do not reflect fluctuations
in cherry supplies. Therefore, this action should have little or no
effect on consumer prices and should not result in a reduction in
retail sales.
The free and restricted percentages established by this rule would
provide the market with optimum supply and apply uniformly to all
regulated handlers in the industry, regardless of size. As the
restriction represents a percentage of a handler's volume, the costs,
when applicable, are proportionate and should not place an extra burden
on small entities as compared to large entities.
The stabilizing effects of this action would benefit all handlers
by helping them maintain and expand markets, despite seasonal supply
fluctuations. Likewise, price stability positively
[[Page 8821]]
impacts all growers and handlers by allowing them to better anticipate
the revenues their tart cherries would generate. Growers and handlers,
regardless of size, would benefit from the stabilizing effects of this
restriction. In addition, the increased carry-out should provide
processors enough supply to meet market needs going into the next
season.
The Board considered some alternatives in its preliminary
restriction discussions that affected this recommended action. The
first alternative concerned the average sales in estimating demand for
the coming season, and the second alternative regarded the recommended
carry-out figure.
Regarding demand, the Board began with the actual sales average of
198 million pounds. There was concern, however that this value, which
incorporated the weather-related crop failure of 2012, would result in
an over-restrictive calculation. After considering options in the range
of 24 to 52 million pounds, the Board determined that an adjustment of
52 million pounds, to reach an average demand of 250 million pounds,
was most appropriate for the industry. Thus the other alternatives were
rejected and the Board recommended the 52 million pound economic
adjustment.
Regarding the carry-out value, the Board considered keeping this
value at the order's 20 million pound maximum. However, many noted that
the industry now regularly carries over more volume than in the past to
keep its expanded product lines supplied at the end of the season. One
member noted that even at the end of the disaster season, there were 17
million pounds carried out. Another noted that the 81 million pound
carry-in this season was seen as burdensome. Others were concerned that
in addition to the previous adjustment, too high of a carry-out figure
might discourage using reserves to protect the industry from another
disaster. The Board considered 60 million pounds and 30 million pounds,
but these were considered respectively too large and too restrictive
and thus were rejected. The Board then reached a consensus and
recommended the Secretary increase the maximum carry-out to 50 million
pounds for the 2014-2015 season alone.
In accordance with the Paperwork Reduction Act of 1995 (44 U.S.C.
Chapter 35), the order's information collection requirements have been
previously approved by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) and
assigned OMB No. 0581-0177, Tart Cherries Grown in the States of MI,
NY, PA, OR, UT, WA, and WI. No changes in those requirements as a
result of this action are necessary. Should any changes become
necessary, they would be submitted to OMB for approval.
This action would not impose any additional reporting or
recordkeeping requirements on either small or large tart cherry
handlers. As with all Federal marketing order programs, reports and
forms are periodically reviewed to reduce information requirements and
duplication by industry and public sector agencies.
AMS is committed to complying with the E-Government Act, to promote
the use of the internet and other information technologies to provide
increased opportunities for citizen access to Government information
and services, and for other purposes.
USDA has not identified any relevant Federal rules that duplicate,
overlap or conflict with this proposed rule.
In addition, the Board's meeting was widely publicized throughout
the tart cherry industry and all interested persons were invited to
attend the meeting and participate in Board deliberations on all
issues. Like all Board meetings, the June 26, 2014, and September 11,
2014, meetings were public meetings and all entities, both large and
small, were able to express views on this issue. Finally, interested
persons are invited to submit comments on this proposed rule, including
the regulatory and informational impacts of this action on small
businesses.
A small business guide on complying with fruit, vegetable, and
specialty crop marketing agreements and orders may be viewed at: https://www.ams.usda.gov/MarketingOrdersSmallBusinessGuide. Any questions
about the compliance guide should be sent to Jeffrey Smutny at the
previously mentioned address in the FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT
section.
A 30-day comment period is provided to allow interested persons to
respond to this proposal. Thirty days is deemed appropriate because
this proposed rule would need to be in place as soon as possible since
handlers are already shipping tart cherries from the 2014-15 crop. All
written comments timely received will be considered before a final
determination is made on this matter.
List of Subjects in 7 CFR Part 930
Marketing agreements, Reporting and recordkeeping requirements,
Tart cherries.
For the reasons set forth in the preamble, 7 CFR part 930 is
proposed to be amended as follows:
PART 930--TART CHERRIES GROWN IN THE STATES OF MICHIGAN, NEW YORK,
PENNSYLVANIA, OREGON, UTAH, WASHINGTON, AND WISCONSIN
0
1. The authority citation for 7 CFR part 930 continues to read as
follows:
Authority: 7 U.S.C. 601-674.
0
2. Section 930.151 is added to read as follows:
Sec. 930.151 Desirable carry-out inventory
For the crop year beginning on July 1, 2014, the desirable carry-
out inventory, for the purposes of determining an optimum supply
volume, will be 50 million pounds.
0
3. Section 930.256 is added to read as follows:
Sec. 930.256 Free and restricted percentages for the 2014-15 crop
year.
The percentages for tart cherries handled by handlers during the
crop year beginning on July 1, 2014, which shall be free and
restricted, respectively, are designated as follows: Free percentage,
80 percent and restricted percentage, 20 percent.
Dated: February 11, 2015.
Rex A. Barnes,
Associate Administrator, Agricultural Marketing Service.
[FR Doc. 2015-03406 Filed 2-18-15; 8:45 am]
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