Energy Conservation Program for Consumer Products and Commercial and Industrial Equipment: Effect of Revised Estimates of the Social Cost of Carbon, 79419-79423 [2013-31270]
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79419
Federal Register / Vol. 78, No. 250 / Monday, December 30, 2013 / Notices
(October 25, 2013)). The analyses
prepared for these rulemakings used
values for the SCC that were developed
by an interagency group and issued by
OMB in May 2013.1 The May 2013
estimates reflect values that are similar
to those used by other governments,
international institutions, and major
corporations. Table 1 shows the May
2013 sets of SCC estimates in five year
increments from 2010 to 2050. The
interagency group selected four sets of
SCC values for use in regulatory
analyses. Three sets of values are based
on the average SCC from the three
integrated assessment models that were
evaluated, at discount rates of 2.5, 3,
and 5 percent. The fourth set, which
represents the 95th percentile SCC
estimate across all three models at a 3percent discount rate, is included to
represent higher-than-expected impacts
from temperature change further out in
the tails of the SCC distribution.
On November 1, 2013, OMB issued
updated values for the May 2013 SCC.2
OMB announced a 60-day public
comment period on the updated values
and the underlying technical support
document on November 26, 2013. 78 FR
70586. These updated values reflect
minor technical corrections to the May
2013 SCC estimates. The technical
corrections to the May 2013 SCC values
represent the best available science and
data on the economic impacts on society
of climate change, and, as such, will be
used by DOE in its rulemakings. Table
2 shows the updated sets of SCC
estimates in five year increments from
2010 to 2050. The changes from the May
2013 values to the November 2013
values are small.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT:
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
Energy Conservation Program for
Consumer Products and Commercial
and Industrial Equipment: Effect of
Revised Estimates of the Social Cost
of Carbon
Office of Energy Efficiency and
Renewable Energy, Department of
Energy.
AGENCY:
Notice of Data Availability
(NODA).
ACTION:
The U.S. Department of
Energy (DOE) has, for several years,
used monetary values for the Social Cost
of Carbon (SCC) to estimate the value to
society of reducing carbon emissions
that could result from rulemakings
establishing energy conservation
standards for residential appliances and
industrial equipment. In recent
standards rulemakings for microwave
oven standby and off modes, metal
halide lighting fixtures, commercial
refrigeration equipment, walk-in coolers
and freezers, and furnace fans, DOE
used SCC values developed by an
interagency group and released to the
public in May 2013 by the Office of
Management and Budget (OMB). OMB
has issued updated SCC values that
reflect minor technical corrections to
the estimates that were released in May
2013. The purpose of this notice is to
show the impact of these updated
values on the national economic
benefits projected to result from the
proposed standards for commercial
refrigeration equipment, walk-in coolers
and freezers, metal halide lighting
fixtures, and furnace fans.
SUMMARY:
Requests for additional information may
be sent to Mr. John Cymbalsky, U.S.
Department of Energy, Office of Energy
Efficiency and Renewable Energy,
Building Technologies Office, EE–2J,
1000 Independence Avenue SW.,
Washington, DC 20585–0121.
Telephone: (202) 287–1692. Email:
John.Cymbalsky@ee.doe.gov.
Ms. Ami Grace-Tardy, U.S.
Department of Energy, Office of the
General Counsel, GC–71, 1000
Independence Avenue SW.,
Washington, DC 20585–0121.
Telephone: (202) 586–5709. Email:
Ami.Grace-Tardy@hq.doe.gov.
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION:
I. Introduction
For several years, DOE has used the
monetary values provided by the SCC to
estimate the value to society of reduced
carbon emissions from rulemakings
establishing energy conservation
standards for residential appliances and
industrial equipment. DOE has recently
issued standards rulemakings for
microwave oven standby and off modes,
commercial refrigeration equipment,
walk-in coolers and freezers, metal
halide lighting fixtures, and furnace
fans. DOE issued a final rule for
microwave oven standby and off modes
standards (78 FR 36316 (June 17, 2013)),
and it issued notices of proposed
rulemaking (NOPR) for metal halide
lighting fixtures (78 FR 51463 (August
20, 2013)), commercial refrigeration
equipment (78 FR 55889 (September 11,
2013)), walk-in coolers and freezers (78
FR 55781 (September 11, 2013)), and
residential furnace fans (78 FR 64067
TABLE 1—ANNUAL SCC VALUES FROM MAY 2013 INTERAGENCY REPORT, 2010–2050
[2007 dollars per metric ton CO2]
Discount rate
(percent)
Year
maindgalligan on DSK5TPTVN1PROD with NOTICES
3
2.5
3
Average
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
5
Average
Average
95th Percentile
.........................................................................................
.........................................................................................
.........................................................................................
.........................................................................................
.........................................................................................
.........................................................................................
.........................................................................................
.........................................................................................
.........................................................................................
1 Technical Update of the Social Cost of Carbon
for Regulatory Impact Analysis Under Executive
Order 12866. Interagency Working Group on Social
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12
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14
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62
66
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Cost of Carbon, United States Government. May
2013.
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2 https://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2013/11/01/
refining-estimates-social-cost-carbon
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Federal Register / Vol. 78, No. 250 / Monday, December 30, 2013 / Notices
TABLE 2—ANNUAL SCC VALUES FROM NOVEMBER 2013 INTERAGENCY REPORT UPDATE, 2010–2050
[2007 dollars per metric ton CO2]
Discount rate
(percent)
Year
3
2.5
3
Average
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
5
Average
Average
95th Percentile
.........................................................................................
.........................................................................................
.........................................................................................
.........................................................................................
.........................................................................................
.........................................................................................
.........................................................................................
.........................................................................................
.........................................................................................
II. Discussion
As indicated above, the updated SCC
values are only slightly different from
the May 2013 SCC values. As such, the
impact of using these values on DOE’s
estimates of the economic value of
reductions in CO2 emissions associated
with the energy conservation standards
for the products mentioned in section I
is very small, and in no way affects the
policy decisions made by DOE in the
relevant rulemakings. Nonetheless, DOE
wishes to inform interested parties of
the exact effect of the updated values on
11
11
12
14
16
19
21
24
26
32
37
43
47
52
56
61
66
71
the national economic benefits projected
to result from the proposed standards
for commercial refrigeration equipment,
walk-in coolers and freezers, metal
halide lighting fixtures, and residential
furnace fans. The benefits of reductions
in CO2 emissions associated with energy
conservation standards using the May
2013 SCC values and the updated SCC
values, along with the total net benefits
in each case, are shown in: Table 3 for
the proposed metal halide lighting
fixtures standards (in real 2012 dollars);
Table 4 for the proposed commercial
refrigeration equipment standards (in
51
57
64
69
75
80
86
92
97
89
109
128
143
159
175
191
206
220
real 2012 dollars); Table 5 for the
proposed walk-in coolers and freezers
standards (in real 2012 dollars); and
Table 6 for the proposed residential
furnace fans standards (in real 2012
dollars). Given the small change in the
benefits, DOE has, in this notice, only
shown the summary National impacts of
the changes and not the results at the
more detailed trial standard levels
(TSLs). However, DOE notes that the
changes at the Trial Standard Level
(TSL) level are equally small and do not
in any way affect DOE’s evaluation of
those TSLs.3
TABLE 3—SUMMARY OF NATIONAL ECONOMIC BENEFITS AND COSTS OF PROPOSED METAL HALIDE LAMP FIXTURE
ENERGY CONSERVATION STANDARDS 4
Present value
(million 2012$)
Category
Discount rate
(percent)
Benefits
Operating Cost Savings ...............................................................................................................................
1,848
3,748
7
3
332
1,514
2,406
4,666
45
91
3,406
5,352
5
3
2.5
3
7
3
7
3
333
1,532
2,436
4,689
45
91
3,424
5,371
5
3
2.5
3
7
3
7
3
Using Revised November 2013 Social Cost of Carbon Values
CO2 Reduction Monetized Value ($11.8/t case)* ........................................................................................
CO2 Reduction Monetized Value ($39.7/t case)* ........................................................................................
CO2 Reduction Monetized Value ($61.2/t case)* ........................................................................................
CO2 Reduction Monetized Value ($117/t case)* .........................................................................................
NOX Reduction Monetized Value (at $2,639/ton)* ......................................................................................
Total Benefits † .............................................................................................................................................
maindgalligan on DSK5TPTVN1PROD with NOTICES
Using Original May 2013 Social Cost of Carbon Values
CO2 Reduction Monetized Value ($12.9/t case)* ........................................................................................
CO2 Reduction Monetized Value ($40.8/t case)* ........................................................................................
CO2 Reduction Monetized Value ($62.2/t case)* ........................................................................................
CO2 Reduction Monetized Value ($117/t case)* .........................................................................................
NOX Reduction Monetized Value (at $2,639/ton)* ......................................................................................
Total Benefits † .............................................................................................................................................
3 In DOE rulemakings, ‘‘TSLs’’ represent different
efficiency levels that DOE analyzes when deciding
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statutory criteria.
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Federal Register / Vol. 78, No. 250 / Monday, December 30, 2013 / Notices
79421
TABLE 3—SUMMARY OF NATIONAL ECONOMIC BENEFITS AND COSTS OF PROPOSED METAL HALIDE LAMP FIXTURE
ENERGY CONSERVATION STANDARDS 4—Continued
Present value
(million 2012$)
Category
Discount rate
(percent)
Costs
Incremental Installed Costs .........................................................................................................................
897
1,294
7
3
2,510
4,058
7
3
2,528
4,076
7
3
Net Benefits (Using Revised November 2013 SCC Values) Costs
Including CO2 and NOX Reduction Monetized Value .................................................................................
Net Benefits (Using Original May 2013 SCC Values) Costs
Including CO2 and NOX Reduction Monetized Value .................................................................................
* The CO2 values represent global values of the social cost of CO2 emissions (in 2012$) in 2015 under several scenarios. The first three values are averages of SCC distributions calculated using 5%, 3%, and 2.5% discount rates, respectively. The fourth value represents the 95th percentile of the SCC distribution calculated using a 3% discount rate. The value for NOX is the average of the low and high values used in DOE’s
analysis.
† Total Benefits for both the 3% and 7% cases are derived using the series corresponding to SCC value of $39.7/t or $40.8/t in 2015 (derived
from the 3% discount rate value for SCC).
TABLE 4—SUMMARY OF NATIONAL ECONOMIC BENEFITS AND COSTS OF PROPOSED COMMERCIAL REFRIGERATION
EQUIPMENT ENERGY CONSERVATION STANDARDS 5
Present value
(million 2012$)
Category
Discount rate
(percent)
Benefits
Operating Cost Savings .............................................................................................................................
2,695
7
6,034
3
306
1,481
2,418
4,527
50
108
4,226
7,623
5
3
2.5
3
7
3
7
3
308
1,504
2,452
4,552
50
108
4,249
7,646
5
3
2.5
3
7
3
7
3
1,089
1,967
7
3
3,137
7
Using Revised November 2013 Social Cost of Carbon Values
CO2 Reduction Monetized Value ($11.8/t case) * .....................................................................................
CO2 Reduction Monetized Value ($39.7/t case) * .....................................................................................
CO2 Reduction Monetized Value ($61.2/t case) * .....................................................................................
CO2 Reduction Monetized Value ($117/t case) * ......................................................................................
NOX Reduction Monetized Value (at $2,639/ton) * ...................................................................................
Total Benefits† ...........................................................................................................................................
Using Original May 2013 Social Cost of Carbon Values
CO2 Reduction Monetized Value ($12.9/t case) * .....................................................................................
CO2 Reduction Monetized Value ($40.8/t case) * .....................................................................................
CO2 Reduction Monetized Value ($62.2/t case) * .....................................................................................
CO2 Reduction Monetized Value ($117/t case) * ......................................................................................
NOX Reduction Monetized Value (at $2,639/ton) * ...................................................................................
Total Benefits† ...........................................................................................................................................
maindgalligan on DSK5TPTVN1PROD with NOTICES
Costs
Incremental Installed Costs .......................................................................................................................
Net Benefits (Using Revised November 2013 SCC Values)
Including CO2 and NOX Reduction Monetized Value ...............................................................................
4 See Table I.3 at 78 FR 51463, 51468 (August 20,
2013).
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79422
Federal Register / Vol. 78, No. 250 / Monday, December 30, 2013 / Notices
TABLE 4—SUMMARY OF NATIONAL ECONOMIC BENEFITS AND COSTS OF PROPOSED COMMERCIAL REFRIGERATION
EQUIPMENT ENERGY CONSERVATION STANDARDS 5—Continued
Present value
(million 2012$)
Category
Discount rate
(percent)
5,656
3
3,160
5,679
7
3
Net Benefits (Using Original May 2013 SCC Values)
Including CO2 and NOX Reduction Monetized Value ...............................................................................
* The CO2 values represent global values of the social cost of CO2 emissions (in 2012$) in 2015 under several scenarios. The first three values are averages of SCC distributions calculated using 5, 3, and 2.5 discount rates, respectively. The fourth value represents the 95th percentile
of the SCC distribution calculated using a 3 discount rate. The value for NOX is the average of the low and high values used in DOE’s analysis.
† Total Benefits for both the 3 and 7 cases are derived using the series corresponding to SCC value of $39.7/t or $40.8/t in 2015 (derived from
the 3 discount rate value for SCC).
TABLE 5—SUMMARY OF NATIONAL ECONOMIC BENEFITS AND COSTS OF PROPOSED WALK-IN COOLERS AND FREEZERS
ENERGY CONSERVATION STANDARDS 6
Present value
(billion 2012$)
Category
Discount rate
(percent)
Benefits
Operating Cost Savings .............................................................................................................................
12.41
31.56
7
3
1.87
8.87
14.19
27.39
0.24
0.55
21.52
40.98
5
3
2.5
3
7
3
7
3
1.88
8.96
14.36
27.52
0.24
0.55
21.61
41.07
5
3
2.5
3
7
3
7
3
Using Revised November 2013 Social Cost of Carbon Values
CO2 Reduction Monetized Value ($11.8/t case) * .....................................................................................
CO2 Reduction Monetized Value ($39.7/t case) * .....................................................................................
CO2 Reduction Monetized Value ($61.2/t case) * .....................................................................................
CO2 Reduction Monetized Value ($117/t case) * ......................................................................................
NOX Reduction Monetized Value (at $2,639/ton) * ...................................................................................
Total Benefits† ...........................................................................................................................................
Using Original May 2013 Social Cost of Carbon Values
CO2 Reduction Monetized Value ($12.9/t case) * .....................................................................................
CO2 Reduction Monetized Value ($40.8/t case) * .....................................................................................
CO2 Reduction Monetized Value ($62.2/t case) * .....................................................................................
CO2 Reduction Monetized Value ($117/t case) * ......................................................................................
NOX Reduction Monetized Value (at $2,639/ton) * ...................................................................................
Total Benefits† ...........................................................................................................................................
Costs
Incremental Installed Costs .......................................................................................................................
3.77
7.26
7
3
17.76
33.72
7
3
17.84
33.80
7
3
Net Benefits (Using Revised November 2013 SCC Values)
Including CO2 and NOX Reduction Monetized Value ...............................................................................
maindgalligan on DSK5TPTVN1PROD with NOTICES
Net Benefits (Using Original May 2013 SCC Values)
Including CO2 and NOX Reduction Monetized Value ...............................................................................
* The CO2 values represent global values of the social cost of CO2 emissions (in 2012$) in 2015 under several scenarios. The first three values are averages of SCC distributions calculated using 5, 3, and 2.5 discount rates, respectively. The fourth value represents the 95th percentile
of the SCC distribution calculated using a 3 discount rate. The value for NOX is the average of the low and high values used in DOE’s analysis.
† Total Benefits for both the 3 and 7 cases are derived using the series corresponding to SCC value of $39.7/t or $40.8/t in 2015 (derived from
the 3 discount rate value for SCC).
5 See Table I.3 at 78 FR 55889, 55893 (September
11, 2013).
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79423
Federal Register / Vol. 78, No. 250 / Monday, December 30, 2013 / Notices
TABLE 6—SUMMARY OF NATIONAL ECONOMIC BENEFITS AND COSTS OF PROPOSED FURNACE FAN ENERGY
CONSERVATION STANDARDS 7
Present value
(billion 2012$)
Category
Discount rate
(percent)
Benefits
Operating Cost Savings .............................................................................................................................
11.58
32.00
7
3
2.22
11.44
18.60
35.42
0.11
0.31
23.13
43.76
5
3
2.5
3
7
3
7
3
2.25
11.52
18.81
35.56
0.11
0.31
23.21
43.84
5
3
2.5
3
7
3
7
3
Using Revised November 2013 Social Cost of Carbon Values
CO2 Reduction Monetized Value ($11.8/t case) * .....................................................................................
CO2 Reduction Monetized Value ($39.7/t case) * .....................................................................................
CO2 Reduction Monetized Value ($61.2/t case) * .....................................................................................
CO2 Reduction Monetized Value ($117/t case) * ......................................................................................
NOX Reduction Monetized Value (at $2,639/ton) * ...................................................................................
Total Benefits† ...........................................................................................................................................
Using Original May 2013 Social Cost of Carbon Values
CO2 Reduction Monetized Value ($12.9/t case) * .....................................................................................
CO2 Reduction Monetized Value ($40.8/t case) * .....................................................................................
CO2 Reduction Monetized Value ($62.2/t case) * .....................................................................................
CO2 Reduction Monetized Value ($117/t case) * ......................................................................................
NOX Reduction Monetized Value (at $2,639/ton) * ...................................................................................
Total Benefits† ...........................................................................................................................................
Costs
Incremental Installed Costs .......................................................................................................................
3.07
5.85
7
3
20.06
37.91
7
3
20.14
38.99
7
3
Net Benefits (Using Revised November 2013 SCC Values)
Including CO2 and NOX Reduction Monetized Value ...............................................................................
Net Benefits (Using Original May 2013 SCC Values)
Including CO2 and NOX Reduction Monetized Value ...............................................................................
* The CO2 values represent global values of the social cost of CO2 emissions (in 2012$) in 2015 under several scenarios. The first three values are averages of SCC distributions calculated using 5, 3, and 2.5 discount rates, respectively. The fourth value represents the 95th percentile
of the SCC distribution calculated using a 3 discount rate. The value for NOX is the mid-range value used in DOE’s analysis.
† Total Benefits for both the 3 and 7 cases are derived using the series corresponding to SCC value of $39.7/t or $40.8/t in 2015 (derived from
the 3 discount rate value for SCC).
Notice of petition and request
for public comments.
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
Issued in Washington, DC, on December
24, 2013.
Kathleen B. Hogan,
Deputy Assistant Secretary for Energy
Efficiency, Energy Efficiency and Renewable
Energy.
maindgalligan on DSK5TPTVN1PROD with NOTICES
[FR Doc. 2013–31270 Filed 12–27–13; 8:45 am]
BILLING CODE 6450–01–P
ACTION:
Office of Energy Efficiency and
Renewable Energy
SUMMARY:
[Docket No. EERE–2013–BT–DET–0053]
Energy Efficiency Program for
Industrial Equipment: Petition of CSA
Group for Classification as a Nationally
Recognized Certification Program for
Small Electric Motors
Office of Energy Efficiency and
Renewable Energy, Department of
Energy.
AGENCY:
6 See Table I–3 at 78 FR 55781, 55786–87
(September 11, 2013).
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Jkt 232001
This notice announces receipt
of a petition from CSA Group (CSA)
seeking classification as a nationally
recognized certification program under
10 CFR 431.447 and 431.448. In its
petition, which appears at the end of
this notice, CSA provides
documentation to help substantiate its
position that its certification program
for small electric motors satisfies the
evaluation criteria for classification as a
nationally recognized certification
7 See Table 1.3 at 78 FR 64067, 64071 (October
25, 2013).
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]]>Agencies
[Federal Register Volume 78, Number 250 (Monday, December 30, 2013)]
[Notices]
[Pages 79419-79423]
From the Federal Register Online via the Government Printing Office [www.gpo.gov]
[FR Doc No: 2013-31270]
[[Page 79419]]
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
Energy Conservation Program for Consumer Products and Commercial
and Industrial Equipment: Effect of Revised Estimates of the Social
Cost of Carbon
AGENCY: Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Department of
Energy.
ACTION: Notice of Data Availability (NODA).
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
SUMMARY: The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has, for several years,
used monetary values for the Social Cost of Carbon (SCC) to estimate
the value to society of reducing carbon emissions that could result
from rulemakings establishing energy conservation standards for
residential appliances and industrial equipment. In recent standards
rulemakings for microwave oven standby and off modes, metal halide
lighting fixtures, commercial refrigeration equipment, walk-in coolers
and freezers, and furnace fans, DOE used SCC values developed by an
interagency group and released to the public in May 2013 by the Office
of Management and Budget (OMB). OMB has issued updated SCC values that
reflect minor technical corrections to the estimates that were released
in May 2013. The purpose of this notice is to show the impact of these
updated values on the national economic benefits projected to result
from the proposed standards for commercial refrigeration equipment,
walk-in coolers and freezers, metal halide lighting fixtures, and
furnace fans.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Requests for additional information
may be sent to Mr. John Cymbalsky, U.S. Department of Energy, Office of
Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Building Technologies Office,
EE-2J, 1000 Independence Avenue SW., Washington, DC 20585-0121.
Telephone: (202) 287-1692. Email: John.Cymbalsky@ee.doe.gov.
Ms. Ami Grace-Tardy, U.S. Department of Energy, Office of the
General Counsel, GC-71, 1000 Independence Avenue SW., Washington, DC
20585-0121. Telephone: (202) 586-5709. Email: Ami.Grace-Tardy@hq.doe.gov.
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION:
I. Introduction
For several years, DOE has used the monetary values provided by the
SCC to estimate the value to society of reduced carbon emissions from
rulemakings establishing energy conservation standards for residential
appliances and industrial equipment. DOE has recently issued standards
rulemakings for microwave oven standby and off modes, commercial
refrigeration equipment, walk-in coolers and freezers, metal halide
lighting fixtures, and furnace fans. DOE issued a final rule for
microwave oven standby and off modes standards (78 FR 36316 (June 17,
2013)), and it issued notices of proposed rulemaking (NOPR) for metal
halide lighting fixtures (78 FR 51463 (August 20, 2013)), commercial
refrigeration equipment (78 FR 55889 (September 11, 2013)), walk-in
coolers and freezers (78 FR 55781 (September 11, 2013)), and
residential furnace fans (78 FR 64067 (October 25, 2013)). The analyses
prepared for these rulemakings used values for the SCC that were
developed by an interagency group and issued by OMB in May 2013.\1\ The
May 2013 estimates reflect values that are similar to those used by
other governments, international institutions, and major corporations.
Table 1 shows the May 2013 sets of SCC estimates in five year
increments from 2010 to 2050. The interagency group selected four sets
of SCC values for use in regulatory analyses. Three sets of values are
based on the average SCC from the three integrated assessment models
that were evaluated, at discount rates of 2.5, 3, and 5 percent. The
fourth set, which represents the 95th percentile SCC estimate across
all three models at a 3-percent discount rate, is included to represent
higher-than-expected impacts from temperature change further out in the
tails of the SCC distribution.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\1\ Technical Update of the Social Cost of Carbon for Regulatory
Impact Analysis Under Executive Order 12866. Interagency Working
Group on Social Cost of Carbon, United States Government. May 2013.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
On November 1, 2013, OMB issued updated values for the May 2013
SCC.\2\ OMB announced a 60-day public comment period on the updated
values and the underlying technical support document on November 26,
2013. 78 FR 70586. These updated values reflect minor technical
corrections to the May 2013 SCC estimates. The technical corrections to
the May 2013 SCC values represent the best available science and data
on the economic impacts on society of climate change, and, as such,
will be used by DOE in its rulemakings. Table 2 shows the updated sets
of SCC estimates in five year increments from 2010 to 2050. The changes
from the May 2013 values to the November 2013 values are small.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\2\ https://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2013/11/01/refining-estimates-social-cost-carbon
Table 1--Annual SCC Values From May 2013 Interagency Report, 2010-2050
[2007 dollars per metric ton CO2]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Discount rate (percent)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Year 5 3 2.5 3
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Average Average Average 95th Percentile
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2010................................ 11 33 52 90
2015................................ 12 38 58 109
2020................................ 12 43 65 129
2025................................ 14 48 70 144
2030................................ 16 52 76 159
2035................................ 19 57 81 176
2040................................ 21 62 87 192
2045................................ 24 66 92 206
2050................................ 27 71 98 221
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
[[Page 79420]]
Table 2--Annual SCC Values from November 2013 Interagency Report Update, 2010-2050
[2007 dollars per metric ton CO2]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Discount rate (percent)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Year 5 3 2.5 3
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Average Average Average 95th Percentile
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2010................................ 11 32 51 89
2015................................ 11 37 57 109
2020................................ 12 43 64 128
2025................................ 14 47 69 143
2030................................ 16 52 75 159
2035................................ 19 56 80 175
2040................................ 21 61 86 191
2045................................ 24 66 92 206
2050................................ 26 71 97 220
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
II. Discussion
As indicated above, the updated SCC values are only slightly
different from the May 2013 SCC values. As such, the impact of using
these values on DOE's estimates of the economic value of reductions in
CO2 emissions associated with the energy conservation
standards for the products mentioned in section I is very small, and in
no way affects the policy decisions made by DOE in the relevant
rulemakings. Nonetheless, DOE wishes to inform interested parties of
the exact effect of the updated values on the national economic
benefits projected to result from the proposed standards for commercial
refrigeration equipment, walk-in coolers and freezers, metal halide
lighting fixtures, and residential furnace fans. The benefits of
reductions in CO2 emissions associated with energy
conservation standards using the May 2013 SCC values and the updated
SCC values, along with the total net benefits in each case, are shown
in: Table 3 for the proposed metal halide lighting fixtures standards
(in real 2012 dollars); Table 4 for the proposed commercial
refrigeration equipment standards (in real 2012 dollars); Table 5 for
the proposed walk-in coolers and freezers standards (in real 2012
dollars); and Table 6 for the proposed residential furnace fans
standards (in real 2012 dollars). Given the small change in the
benefits, DOE has, in this notice, only shown the summary National
impacts of the changes and not the results at the more detailed trial
standard levels (TSLs). However, DOE notes that the changes at the
Trial Standard Level (TSL) level are equally small and do not in any
way affect DOE's evaluation of those TSLs.\3\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\3\ In DOE rulemakings, ``TSLs'' represent different efficiency
levels that DOE analyzes when deciding which efficiency level to
propose or adopt based on statutory criteria.
Table 3--Summary of National Economic Benefits and Costs of Proposed
Metal Halide Lamp Fixture Energy Conservation Standards \4\
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Present value Discount rate
Category (million 2012$) (percent)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Benefits
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Operating Cost Savings............ 1,848 7
3,748 3
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Using Revised November 2013 Social Cost of Carbon Values
------------------------------------------------------------------------
CO2 Reduction Monetized Value 332 5
($11.8/t case)*..................
CO2 Reduction Monetized Value 1,514 3
($39.7/t case)*..................
CO2 Reduction Monetized Value 2,406 2.5
($61.2/t case)*..................
CO2 Reduction Monetized Value 4,666 3
($117/t case)*...................
NOX Reduction Monetized Value (at 45 7
$2,639/ton)*.....................
91 3
Total Benefits [dagger]........... 3,406 7
5,352 3
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Using Original May 2013 Social Cost of Carbon Values
------------------------------------------------------------------------
CO2 Reduction Monetized Value 333 5
($12.9/t case)*..................
CO2 Reduction Monetized Value 1,532 3
($40.8/t case)*..................
CO2 Reduction Monetized Value 2,436 2.5
($62.2/t case)*..................
CO2 Reduction Monetized Value 4,689 3
($117/t case)*...................
NOX Reduction Monetized Value (at 45 7
$2,639/ton)*.....................
91 3
Total Benefits [dagger]........... 3,424 7
5,371 3
------------------------------------------------------------------------
[[Page 79421]]
Costs
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Incremental Installed Costs....... 897 7
1,294 3
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Net Benefits (Using Revised November 2013 SCC Values) Costs
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Including CO2 and NOX Reduction 2,510 7
Monetized Value..................
4,058 3
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Net Benefits (Using Original May 2013 SCC Values) Costs
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Including CO2 and NOX Reduction 2,528 7
Monetized Value..................
4,076 3
------------------------------------------------------------------------
* The CO2 values represent global values of the social cost of CO2
emissions (in 2012$) in 2015 under several scenarios. The first three
values are averages of SCC distributions calculated using 5%, 3%, and
2.5% discount rates, respectively. The fourth value represents the
95th percentile of the SCC distribution calculated using a 3% discount
rate. The value for NOX is the average of the low and high values used
in DOE's analysis.
[dagger] Total Benefits for both the 3% and 7% cases are derived using
the series corresponding to SCC value of $39.7/t or $40.8/t in 2015
(derived from the 3% discount rate value for SCC).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\4\ See Table I.3 at 78 FR 51463, 51468 (August 20, 2013).
Table 4--Summary of National Economic Benefits and Costs of Proposed
Commercial Refrigeration Equipment Energy Conservation Standards \5\
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Present value Discount rate
Category (million 2012$) (percent)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Benefits
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Operating Cost Savings........... 2,695 7
------------------------------------------------------------------------
6,034 3
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Using Revised November 2013 Social Cost of Carbon Values
------------------------------------------------------------------------
CO2 Reduction Monetized Value 306 5
($11.8/t case) *................
CO2 Reduction Monetized Value 1,481 3
($39.7/t case) *................
CO2 Reduction Monetized Value 2,418 2.5
($61.2/t case) *................
CO2 Reduction Monetized Value 4,527 3
($117/t case) *.................
NOX Reduction Monetized Value (at 50 7
$2,639/ton) *...................
108 3
Total Benefits[dagger]........... 4,226 7
7,623 3
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Using Original May 2013 Social Cost of Carbon Values
------------------------------------------------------------------------
CO2 Reduction Monetized Value 308 5
($12.9/t case) *................
CO2 Reduction Monetized Value 1,504 3
($40.8/t case) *................
CO2 Reduction Monetized Value 2,452 2.5
($62.2/t case) *................
CO2 Reduction Monetized Value 4,552 3
($117/t case) *.................
NOX Reduction Monetized Value (at 50 7
$2,639/ton) *...................
108 3
Total Benefits[dagger]........... 4,249 7
7,646 3
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Costs
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Incremental Installed Costs...... 1,089 7
1,967 3
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Net Benefits (Using Revised November 2013 SCC Values)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Including CO2 and NOX Reduction 3,137 7
Monetized Value.................
[[Page 79422]]
5,656 3
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Net Benefits (Using Original May 2013 SCC Values)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Including CO2 and NOX Reduction 3,160 7
Monetized Value.................
5,679 3
------------------------------------------------------------------------
* The CO2 values represent global values of the social cost of CO2
emissions (in 2012$) in 2015 under several scenarios. The first three
values are averages of SCC distributions calculated using 5, 3, and
2.5 discount rates, respectively. The fourth value represents the 95th
percentile of the SCC distribution calculated using a 3 discount rate.
The value for NOX is the average of the low and high values used in
DOE's analysis.
[dagger] Total Benefits for both the 3 and 7 cases are derived using the
series corresponding to SCC value of $39.7/t or $40.8/t in 2015
(derived from the 3 discount rate value for SCC).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\5\ See Table I.3 at 78 FR 55889, 55893 (September 11, 2013).
Table 5--Summary of National Economic Benefits and Costs of Proposed
Walk-In Coolers and Freezers Energy Conservation Standards \6\
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Present value Discount rate
Category (billion 2012$) (percent)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Benefits
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Operating Cost Savings........... 12.41 7
31.56 3
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Using Revised November 2013 Social Cost of Carbon Values
------------------------------------------------------------------------
CO2 Reduction Monetized Value 1.87 5
($11.8/t case) *................
CO2 Reduction Monetized Value 8.87 3
($39.7/t case) *................
CO2 Reduction Monetized Value 14.19 2.5
($61.2/t case) *................
CO2 Reduction Monetized Value 27.39 3
($117/t case) *.................
NOX Reduction Monetized Value (at 0.24 7
$2,639/ton) *...................
0.55 3
Total Benefits[dagger]........... 21.52 7
40.98 3
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Using Original May 2013 Social Cost of Carbon Values
------------------------------------------------------------------------
CO2 Reduction Monetized Value 1.88 5
($12.9/t case) *................
CO2 Reduction Monetized Value 8.96 3
($40.8/t case) *................
CO2 Reduction Monetized Value 14.36 2.5
($62.2/t case) *................
CO2 Reduction Monetized Value 27.52 3
($117/t case) *.................
NOX Reduction Monetized Value (at 0.24 7
$2,639/ton) *...................
0.55 3
Total Benefits[dagger]........... 21.61 7
41.07 3
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Costs
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Incremental Installed Costs...... 3.77 7
7.26 3
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Net Benefits (Using Revised November 2013 SCC Values)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Including CO2 and NOX Reduction 17.76 7
Monetized Value.................
33.72 3
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Net Benefits (Using Original May 2013 SCC Values)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Including CO2 and NOX Reduction 17.84 7
Monetized Value.................
33.80 3
------------------------------------------------------------------------
* The CO2 values represent global values of the social cost of CO2
emissions (in 2012$) in 2015 under several scenarios. The first three
values are averages of SCC distributions calculated using 5, 3, and
2.5 discount rates, respectively. The fourth value represents the 95th
percentile of the SCC distribution calculated using a 3 discount rate.
The value for NOX is the average of the low and high values used in
DOE's analysis.
[dagger] Total Benefits for both the 3 and 7 cases are derived using the
series corresponding to SCC value of $39.7/t or $40.8/t in 2015
(derived from the 3 discount rate value for SCC).
[[Page 79423]]
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\6\ See Table I-3 at 78 FR 55781, 55786-87 (September 11, 2013).
Table 6--Summary of National Economic Benefits and Costs of Proposed
Furnace Fan Energy Conservation Standards \7\
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Present value Discount rate
Category (billion 2012$) (percent)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Benefits
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Operating Cost Savings........... 11.58 7
32.00 3
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Using Revised November 2013 Social Cost of Carbon Values
------------------------------------------------------------------------
CO2 Reduction Monetized Value 2.22 5
($11.8/t case) *................
CO2 Reduction Monetized Value 11.44 3
($39.7/t case) *................
CO2 Reduction Monetized Value 18.60 2.5
($61.2/t case) *................
CO2 Reduction Monetized Value 35.42 3
($117/t case) *.................
NOX Reduction Monetized Value (at 0.11 7
$2,639/ton) *...................
0.31 3
Total Benefits[dagger]........... 23.13 7
43.76 3
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Using Original May 2013 Social Cost of Carbon Values
------------------------------------------------------------------------
CO2 Reduction Monetized Value 2.25 5
($12.9/t case) *................
CO2 Reduction Monetized Value 11.52 3
($40.8/t case) *................
CO2 Reduction Monetized Value 18.81 2.5
($62.2/t case) *................
CO2 Reduction Monetized Value 35.56 3
($117/t case) *.................
NOX Reduction Monetized Value (at 0.11 7
$2,639/ton) *...................
0.31 3
Total Benefits[dagger]........... 23.21 7
43.84 3
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Costs
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Incremental Installed Costs...... 3.07 7
5.85 3
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Net Benefits (Using Revised November 2013 SCC Values)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Including CO2 and NOX Reduction 20.06 7
Monetized Value.................
37.91 3
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Net Benefits (Using Original May 2013 SCC Values)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Including CO2 and NOX Reduction 20.14 7
Monetized Value.................
38.99 3
------------------------------------------------------------------------
* The CO2 values represent global values of the social cost of CO2
emissions (in 2012$) in 2015 under several scenarios. The first three
values are averages of SCC distributions calculated using 5, 3, and
2.5 discount rates, respectively. The fourth value represents the 95th
percentile of the SCC distribution calculated using a 3 discount rate.
The value for NOX is the mid-range value used in DOE's analysis.
[dagger] Total Benefits for both the 3 and 7 cases are derived using the
series corresponding to SCC value of $39.7/t or $40.8/t in 2015
(derived from the 3 discount rate value for SCC).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\7\ See Table 1.3 at 78 FR 64067, 64071 (October 25, 2013).
Issued in Washington, DC, on December 24, 2013.
Kathleen B. Hogan,
Deputy Assistant Secretary for Energy Efficiency, Energy Efficiency and
Renewable Energy.
[FR Doc. 2013-31270 Filed 12-27-13; 8:45 am]
BILLING CODE 6450-01-P
