Reliability Standards for Geomagnetic Disturbances, 64935-64943 [2012-26131]
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Federal Register / Vol. 77, No. 206 / Wednesday, October 24, 2012 / Proposed Rules
srobinson on DSK4SPTVN1PROD with
for the increased data collection and
retention is approximately $1,000 per
entity.
113. Further, some transmission
owners that qualify as small entities will
incur costs associated with an increase
in frequency of inspections. As
indicated above, currently-effective
FAC–003–1 requires periodic vegetation
management inspections of
transmission line rights-of-way at an
interval determined by each
transmission owner. Requirement R6 of
the proposed standard would require
each transmission owners to inspect 100
percent of the transmission lines at least
once per year. Based on a review of
available information, including data
provided in response to a 2004
vegetation management study
performed by Commission staff,148 we
estimate that approximately one third,
i.e., 42, of the transmission owners that
qualify as small entities would incur
costs associated with more frequent
inspection cycles. Assuming that (1)
such small entities own approximately
50–200 miles of transmission lines, (2)
approximately 15–20 miles of
transmission line can be inspected per
day and (3) cost of labor is
approximately $47 per hour,149 the
estimated increase in inspection cost for
these 42 small entities is in the range of
approximately $5,000 to 10,000 per
entity. As discussed above, NERC’s
proposal would modify the applicability
of the Reliability Standard to include
overhead transmission lines that are
operated below 200 kV if they are either
an element of an IROL or an element of
a Major WECC Transfer Path. Based on
a review of the Major WECC Transfer
Paths and a sample of sub-200 kV IROLs
in the Eastern Interconnect, the
Commission believes that most, if not
all, of the transmission lines subject to
the expanded applicability of proposed
FAC–003–2 are owned by large entities.
Thus, the increased cost of the new rule
to small entities appears to be negligible
with respect to the expanded
applicability of the Reliability Standard.
114. Based on the above, the
Commission does not consider the cost
of the NERC proposal to be a significant
economic impact for small entities
because it should not represent a
significant percentage of an affected
small entity’s operating budget.
148 See Utility Vegetation Management and Bulk
Electric Reliability Report from the Federal Energy
Regulatory Commission, p. 8–10 (Sept. 7, 2004).
Available at: https://www.ferc.gov/industries/
electric/indus-act/reliability/veg-mgmt-rpt-final.pdf.
149 The wage figure is taken from the Bureau of
Labor and Statistics at https://bls.gov/oes/current/
naics3_221000.htm.
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115. Based on the above, the
Commission certifies that the new or
revised requirements set forth in
proposed Reliability Standard FAC–
003–2 will not have a significant
economic impact on a substantial
number of small entities. Accordingly,
no regulatory flexibility analysis is
required.
VII. Environmental Analysis
116. The Commission is required to
prepare an Environmental Assessment
or an Environmental Impact Statement
for any action that may have a
significant adverse effect on the human
environment.150 The Commission has
categorically excluded certain actions
from this requirement as not having a
significant effect on the human
environment. The actions proposed here
fall within the categorical exclusion in
the Commission’s regulations for rules
that are clarifying, corrective or
procedural or that do not substantially
change the effect of the regulations
being amended.151 The actions
proposed herein fall within this
categorical exclusion in the
Commission’s regulations.
VIII. Comment Procedures
117. The Commission invites
interested persons to submit comments
on the matters and issues proposed in
this notice to be adopted, including any
related matters or alternative proposals
that commenters may wish to discuss.
Comments are due December 24, 2012.
Comments must refer to Docket No.
RM12–4–000, and must include the
commenter’s name, the organization
they represent, if applicable, and their
address in their comments.
118. The Commission encourages
comments to be filed electronically via
the eFiling link on the Commission’s
Web site at https://www.ferc.gov. The
Commission accepts most standard
word processing formats. Documents
created electronically using word
processing software should be filed in
native applications or print-to-PDF
format and not in a scanned format.
Commenters filing electronically do not
need to make a paper filing.
119. Commenters that are not able to
file comments electronically must send
an original of their comments to:
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission,
Secretary of the Commission, 888 First
Street NE., Washington, DC 20426.
120. All comments will be placed in
the Commission’s public files and may
150 Regulations Implementing the National
Environmental Policy Act of 1969, Order No. 486,
52 FR 47897 (Dec. 17, 1987), FERC Stats. & Regs.,
Regulations Preambles 1986–1990 ¶ 30,783 (1987).
151 18 CFR 380.4(a)(2)(ii) (2012).
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64935
be viewed, printed, or downloaded
remotely as described in the Document
Availability section below. Commenters
on this proposal are not required to
serve copies of their comments on other
commenters.
IX. Document Availability
121. In addition to publishing the full
text of this document in the Federal
Register, the Commission provides all
interested persons an opportunity to
view and/or print the contents of this
document via the Internet through the
Commission’s Home Page (https://www.
ferc.gov) and in the Commission’s
Public Reference Room during normal
business hours (8:30 a.m. to 5:00 p.m.
Eastern time) at 888 First Street NE.,
Room 2A, Washington, DC 20426.
122. From the Commission’s Home
Page on the Internet, this information is
available on eLibrary. The full text of
this document is available on eLibrary
in PDF and Microsoft Word format for
viewing, printing, and/or downloading.
To access this document in eLibrary,
type the docket number excluding the
last three digits of this document in the
docket number field.
123. User assistance is available for
eLibrary and the Commission’s Web site
during normal business hours from the
Commission’s Online Support at (202)
502–6652 (toll free at 1–866–208–3676)
or email at ferconlinesupport@ferc.gov,
or the Public Reference Room at (202)
502–8371, TTY (202) 502–8659. Email
the Public Reference Room at public.
referenceroom@ferc.gov.
List of Subjects in 18 CFR Part 40
Electric power; Electric utilities;
Reporting and recordkeeping
requirements.
By direction of the Commission.
Nathaniel J. Davis, Sr.,
Deputy Secretary.
[FR Doc. 2012–26112 Filed 10–23–12; 8:45 am]
BILLING CODE 6717–01–P
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
Federal Energy Regulatory
Commission
18 CFR Part 40
[Docket No. RM12–22–000]
Reliability Standards for Geomagnetic
Disturbances
Federal Energy Regulatory
Commission, DOE.
ACTION: Notice of Proposed Rulemaking.
AGENCY:
Under section 215 of the
Federal Power Act, the Federal Energy
SUMMARY:
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Federal Register / Vol. 77, No. 206 / Wednesday, October 24, 2012 / Proposed Rules
Regulatory Commission (Commission)
proposes to direct the North American
Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC),
the Commission-certified Electric
Reliability Organization, to submit for
approval Reliability Standards that
address the impact of geomagnetic
disturbances (GMD) on the reliable
operation of the Bulk-Power System.
The Commission proposes to do this in
two stages. In the first stage, the
Commission proposes to direct NERC to
file, within 90 days of the effective date
of a final rule in this proceeding, one or
more Reliability Standards that require
owners and operators of the Bulk-Power
System to develop and implement
operational procedures to mitigate the
effects of GMDs consistent with the
reliable operation of the Bulk-Power
System. In the second stage, the
Commission proposes to direct NERC to
file, within six months of the effective
date of a final rule in this proceeding,
one or more Reliability Standards that
require owners and operators of the
Bulk-Power System to conduct initial
and on-going assessments of the
potential impact of GMDs on BulkPower System equipment and the BulkPower System as a whole. Based on
those assessments, the Reliability
Standards would require owners and
operators to develop and implement a
plan so that instability, uncontrolled
separation, or cascading failures of the
Bulk-Power System, caused by damage
to critical or vulnerable Bulk-Power
System equipment, or otherwise, will
not occur as a result of a GMD. This
plan cannot be limited to operational
procedures or enhanced training alone,
but should, subject to the needs
indentified in the assessments, contain
strategies for protecting against the
potential impact of GMDs based on
factors such as the age, condition,
technical specifications, or location of
specific equipment. These strategies
could include automatically blocking
geomagnetically induced currents from
entering the Bulk-Power System,
instituting specification requirements
for new equipment, inventory
management, and isolating certain
equipment that is not cost effective to
retrofit. This second stage would be
implemented in phases, focusing first
on the most critical Bulk-Power System
assets.
DATES: Comments are due December 24,
2012.
ADDRESSES: Comments, identified by
docket number, may be filed in the
following ways:
• Electronic Filing through https://
www.ferc.gov. Documents created
electronically using word processing
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software should be filed in native
applications or print-to-PDF format and
not in a scanned format.
• Mail/Hand Delivery: Those unable
to file electronically may mail or handdeliver comments to: Federal Energy
Regulatory Commission, Secretary of the
Commission, 888 First Street NE.,
Washington, DC 20426.
Instructions: For detailed instructions
on submitting comments and additional
information on the rulemaking process,
see the Comment Procedures Section of
this document.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT:
David Huff (Technical Information),
Office of Electric Reliability, Division of
Security, Federal Energy Regulatory
Commission, 888 First Street NE.,
Washington, DC 20426, (301) 665–1603,
David.Huff@ferc.gov.
Matthew Vlissides (Legal
Information), Office of the General
Counsel, Federal Energy Regulatory
Commission, 888 First Street NE.,
Washington, DC 20426, (202) 502–8408,
Matthew.Vlissides@ferc.gov.
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION:
Notice of Proposed Rulemaking
Issued October 18, 2012.
1. Pursuant to section 215(d)(5) of the
Federal Power Act (FPA),1 the Federal
Energy Regulatory Commission
(Commission) proposes to direct the
North American Electric Reliability
Corporation (NERC), the Commissioncertified Electric Reliability
Organization (ERO), to file for approval
with the Commission Reliability
Standards (GMD Reliability Standards)
that address the risks posed by
geomagnetic disturbances (GMD) to the
reliable operation of the Bulk-Power
System.2 The Commission proposes to
direct NERC to develop the GMD
Reliability Standards in two stages. In
the first stage, within 90 days of the
effective date of a final rule in this
proceeding, NERC would file one or
more proposed Reliability Standards
that require owners and operators of the
Bulk-Power System to develop and
implement operational procedures to
mitigate the effects of GMDs consistent
with the reliable operation of the BulkPower System. In the second stage,
1 16
U.S.C. 824o(d)(5) (2006).
geomagnetic disturbance occurs when the
magnetic field embedded in the solar wind is
opposite that of the earth. This disturbance, which
results in distortions to the earth’s magnetic field,
can be of varying intensity and has in the past
impacted the operation of pipelines,
communications systems, and electric power
systems.’’ Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Electric
Utility Industry Experience with Geomagnetic
Disturbances at xiii (1991), available at https://
www.ornl.gov/∼webworks/cpr/v823/rpt/51089.pdf.
2 ‘‘A
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within six months of the effective date
of a final rule in this proceeding, NERC
would file one or more proposed
Reliability Standards that require
owners and operators of the Bulk-Power
System to conduct initial and on-going
assessments of the potential impact of
GMDs on Bulk-Power System
equipment and the Bulk-Power System
as a whole. Based on those assessments,
the Reliability Standards would require
owners and operators to develop and
implement a plan so that instability,
uncontrolled separation, or cascading
failures of the Bulk-Power System,
caused by damage to critical or
vulnerable Bulk-Power System
equipment, or otherwise, will not occur
as a result of a GMD.3 This plan cannot
be limited to operational procedures or
enhanced training alone, but should,
subject to the needs indentified in the
assessments, contain strategies for
protecting against the potential impact
of GMDs based on factors such as the
age, condition, technical specifications,
or location of specific equipment. These
strategies could include automatically
blocking geomagnetically induced
currents (GICs) from entering the BulkPower System, instituting specification
requirements for new equipment,
inventory management, and isolating
certain equipment that is not cost
effective to retrofit.4 This second stage
would be implemented in phases,
focusing first on the most critical BulkPower System assets.
2. We take this action based on
government-sponsored studies and
NERC studies that conclude that GMD
events can have an adverse, wide-area
impact on the reliable operation of the
Bulk-Power System.5 In a 2010 study
prepared for the Commission,
Department of Energy, and Department
of Homeland Security, the Oak Ridge
National Laboratory reported that GMD
events can develop quickly over large
3 16
U.S.C. 824o(a)(4) (2006).
examples of automatic blocking include
series line capacitors, transformer neutral GIC
blocking and/or reduction devices, and selective
tripping of vulnerable assets. Automatic blocking
measures can also include the use of relays that can
be set so that they are activated only when needed.
5 See, e.g., The Oak Ridge National Laboratory
prepared a study consisting of six technical reports
(collectively, ‘‘Oak Ridge Study’’) on the effects of
electromagnetic pulses on the Bulk-Power System.
Available at https://www.ornl.gov/sci/ees/etsd/pes/
ferc_emp_gic.shtml; North American Electric
Reliability Corp., 2012 Special Reliability
Assessment Interim Report: Effects of Geomagnetic
Disturbances on the Bulk Power System at 85
(February 2012) (NERC Interim GMD Report),
available at https://www.nerc.com/files/
2012GMD.pdf; North American Electric Reliability
Corp., High-Impact, Low-Frequency Event Risk to
the North American Bulk Power System at 68 (June
2010) (HILF Report), available at https://
www.nerc.com/files/HILF.pdf.
4 Some
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geographic footprints, having the
capability to produce geographicallylarge outages and significant damage to
Bulk-Power System equipment.6
3. The seriousness of the risk posed
by GMDs to the reliable operation of the
Bulk-Power System was expressed at a
Technical Conference held on April 30,
2012.7 At the Technical Conference,
several panelists indicated that severe
GMD events could potentially
compromise the reliable operation of the
Bulk-Power System, with some noting
as an example the GMD-induced
´
disruption of the Hydro-Quebec grid in
1989.8 At the Technical Conference,
panelists stated that the current 11-year
solar activity cycle is expected to hit its
maximum activity in 2013 and large
solar events often occur within four
years of such a cycle maximum.9 While
strong GMDs are infrequent events, their
potential impact on the reliable
operation of the Bulk-Power System
(e.g., widespread blackouts) requires
Commission action under section
215(d)(5) of the FPA.10
4. Currently, GMD vulnerabilities are
not adequately addressed in the
6 Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Electromagnetic
Pulse: Effects on the U.S. Power Grid: Meta–R–319
at pages 1–30, 1–31, 4–1 (January 2010) (Oak Ridge
Study 319 Report), available at https://
www.ornl.gov/sci/ees/etsd/pes/pubs/ferc_Meta-R319.pdf.
7 Written statements presented at the Technical
Conference, post-Technical Conference comments,
and Technical Conference transcript are accessible
through the Commission’s eLibrary document
retrieval system in Docket No. AD12–13–000.
8 See, e.g., Statement of Scott Pugh, U.S.
Department of Homeland Security at 2 (citing 1989
´
Hydro-Quebec blackout); Statement of Frank Koza,
PJM Interconnection, L.L.C. at 1 (‘‘The combination
of half-cycle transformer saturation and increased
reactive power consumption can lead to voltage
collapse and blackouts if not properly managed.’’);
Statement of John Kappenman at 8 (‘‘The bulk
power system is the nation’s most important critical
infrastructure and unlike other threats, a severe
geomagnetic storms [sic] can impose a near
simultaneous nationwide crippling threat to this
vital infrastructure.’’); Statement of Gerry Cauley,
NERC at 1 (‘‘Previous examples, such as the 1989
´
event in Hydro Quebec demonstrate that severe
solar storms represent a serious risk that can
challenge the reliability of the bulk power
system.’’).
9 April 30, 2012 Technical Conference Tr. 84:14–
19 (Pugh); 106:9–15, 169:1–19 (Murtagh).
10 16 U.S.C. 824o(d)(5); see also Transmission
Relay Loadability Reliability Standard, 134 FERC ¶
61,127, at P 25 (2011) (explaining that under section
215(d)(5) ‘‘the Commission, and not just the ERO,
has the responsibility and authority to identify
‘specific matters’ that it considers appropriate to
carry out section 215. Section 215 establishes a
paradigm by which both the Commission and the
ERO are responsible for identifying reliability
gaps—the ERO through its Reliability Standards
development process, where it can independently
identify areas of concern and develop Standards to
address them; and the Commission through its
review of proposed Reliability Standards and
authority to direct modifications or new Standards
that address specific issues necessary to effectuate
the purposes of section 215.’’).
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Reliability Standards.11 This constitutes
a reliability gap because, as discussed
below, GMD events can cause the BulkPower System to collapse suddenly and
can potentially damage the Bulk-Power
System.
5. GMD events affect the Bulk-Power
System by introducing geomagneticallyinduced currents 12 that can cause ‘‘halfcycle saturation’’ of certain high-voltage
Bulk-Power System transformers.13
Half-cycle saturation of transformers can
lead to increased consumption of
reactive power and creation of
disruptive harmonics that can cause the
sudden collapse of the Bulk-Power
System.14 Further, half-cycle saturation
from GICs can potentially damage BulkPower System transformers because of
overheating.15 Permanent damage to
large transformers due to GICs can lead
to restoration delays for the power
grid.16 For example, the Oak Ridge
11 NERC Reliability Standard IRO–005–3a
(Reliability Coordination—Current Day Operations),
Requirement R3, is the only existing requirement
that discusses GMDs. Requirement R3 requires
reliability coordinators to make transmission
operators and balancing authorities aware of GMD
forecast information and assist as needed in the
development of response plans, but it does not
require steps for mitigating the effects of GMD
events.
12 GIC is an electrical current created by a solar
event that appears as direct current to the bulk
electric system. North American Electric Reliability
Council, March 13, 1989 Geomagnetic Disturbance
at 36 (1989), available at https://www.nerc.com/files/
1989-Quebec-Disturbance.pdf. Automatic blocking
prevents or reduces GICs flows into protected BulkPower System components without operator
intervention. NERC Interim GMD Report at 73.
13 NERC Interim GMD Report at iii–iv. Half-cycle
saturation is an abnormal operating condition
whereby a transformer operates outside nominal
voltage design values, saturating the transformer
core with magnetic flux and forcing magnetic flux
into other parts of the transformer. Id. at 25.
14 Id. at 3 (‘‘GMD can have * * * a wide range
of impacts on power apparatus and power system
operations. The effects on apparatus range from
nuisance events, such as tripping of electrical
equipment, radio interference, and control
malfunctions, to large-scale events, such as voltage
and reactive power fluctuations, local disruption of
service, limited equipment failure, and potential
voltage instability resulting in uncontrolled
cascading of the bulk power system.’’).
15 While disagreements exist as to the likely
severity of transformer damage from GMDs
compared with the likelihood of voltage collapse
due to increased reactive power absorption arising
from GMDs, there appears to be a consensus that
GMDs can cause at least some damage to BulkPower System transformers. See, e.g., Comments of
the North American Electric Reliability
Corporation, Docket No. AD12–13–000, at 5 (filed
May 21, 2012) (‘‘Though the most likely result is
voltage collapse, the GMD Task Force members
agreed that, depending on the transformer health,
design, geology and geomagnetic latitude,
geomagnetic induced current flows can result in
transformer loss-of-life, and may ultimately result
in the failure of some transformers.’’).
16 Oak Ridge Study 319 Report at pages 4–1, 4–
3 (‘‘The recovery could plausibly extend into
months in many parts of the impacted regions
* * * These multi-ton apparatus [transformers]
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Study assessed the effects of a ‘‘1-in-100
year’’ geomagnetic storm on the modern
Bulk-Power System.17 The Oak Ridge
Study simulation concluded that such
an event could put a significant number
of Bulk-Power System transformers at
risk for failure or permanent damage.18
The Oak Ridge Study simulation also
found that the effects of a GMD event
may be substantially larger if it occurred
at lower latitudes.19 Estimates prepared
by the National Research Council of the
National Academies concluded that
these events have the potential to cause
widespread, long-term losses with
economic costs to the United States
estimated at $1–2 trillion and a recovery
time of four to ten years.20 The NERC
Interim GMD Report concluded, on the
other hand, that the worst-case scenario
is ‘‘voltage instability and subsequent
voltage collapse,’’ and cites as an
´
example the 1989 Hydro-Quebec
blackout.21 While the conclusions of
these reports differ significantly, our
proposed action is warranted by even
the lesser consequence of a projected
widespread blackout without long-term,
significant damage to the Bulk-Power
System. Taking steps to prevent such
blackouts is consistent with maintaining
the reliable operation of the Bulk-Power
System.22
6. Given the potentially severe, widespread impact to the reliable operation
of the Bulk-Power System from GMD
events and the absence of existing
Reliability Standards to address it, the
Commission proposes to direct the ERO
to file with the Commission for approval
Reliability Standards that address this
generally cannot be repaired in the field, and if
damaged in this manner, they need to be replaced
with new units, which have manufacture lead times
of 12 months or more in the world market.’’); NERC
Interim GMD Report at iv (‘‘[R]estoration times for
system collapse due to voltage instability would be
a matter of hours to days, while replacing
transformers requires long-lead times (a number of
months) to replace or move spares into place,
unless they are in a nearby location. Therefore, the
failure of a large numbers [sic] of transformers
would have considerable impacts on portions of the
system.’’).
17 Oak Ridge Study 319 Report at page 3–22.
18 Id. at page 1–14, Tables 4–1, 4–2, 4–3 (listing
numbers of at-risk transformers).
19 Id. at pages 3–25, 3–26.
20 National Research Council of the National
Academies, Severe Space Weather Events—
Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts: A
Workshop Report at 4 (2008) (NAS Workshop
Report), available at https://www.nap.edu/catalog/
12507.html.
21 NERC Interim GMD Report at 69.
22 16 U.S.C. 824o(a)(4) (‘‘The term ‘reliable
operation’ means operating the elements of the
bulk-power system within equipment and electric
system thermal, voltage, and stability limits so that
instability, uncontrolled separation, or cascading
failures of such system will not occur as a result
of a sudden disturbance, including a cybersecurity
incident, or unanticipated failure of system
elements.’’).
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reliability gap. In proposing to address
the risks posed by GMDs in two stages,
the Commission finds that there are
Reliability Standards that the ERO can
develop and file quickly (i.e., requiring
GMD operational procedures) to
mitigate the effects of GMDs while it
develops other Reliability Standards
that require owners and operators of the
Bulk-Power System to assess the
potential impact of GMDs on BulkPower System equipment and the BulkPower System as a whole. Based on
those assessments, the Reliability
Standards would require owners and
operators to develop and implement a
plan so that instability, uncontrolled
separation, or cascading failures of the
Bulk-Power System, caused by damage
to critical or vulnerable Bulk-Power
System equipment, or otherwise, will
not occur as a result of a GMD. This
plan cannot be limited to operational
procedures or enhanced training alone,
but should, subject to the needs
identified in the assessments, contain
strategies for protecting against the
potential impact of GMDs based on
factors such as the age, condition,
technical specifications, or location of
specific equipment. These strategies
could include automatically blocking
geomagnetically induced currents from
entering the Bulk-Power System,
instituting specification requirements
for new equipment, inventory
management, and isolating certain
equipment that is not cost effective to
retrofit.23
7. We recognize that, depending on
the results of the initial and ongoing
assessments that would be required
under this proposed rule, there could be
substantial costs associated with some
measures to protect against damage to
the Bulk-Power System from GMDs.24 In
determining that it is appropriate to
issue this proposed rule, however, we
have compared such costs against the
societal harms, including the potential
costs of equipment damage or prolonged
blackouts, that could result from taking
no action.25
23 See
infra PP 34–36.
example, estimates for installing blocking
devices on transformers range from $100,000 to
$500,000 for each affected transformer. See
Foundation for Resilient Societies, Comments on
Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (ANPR) of
the Nuclear Regulatory Commission Relating to the
Prevention and Mitigation of Station Blackout, filed
in Docket No. AD12–13–000, at 13 (May 4, 2012)
(citing $500,000 installed costs per transformer);
MITRE Corp., Impacts of Severe Space Weather on
the Electric Grid, at 66 (November 2011) (citing
$100,000 cost for neutral-current-blockingcapacitors per transformer), available at https://
www.fas.org/irp/agency/dod/jason/spaceweather.
pdf.
25 For example the estimated total cost of the
August 2003 four-day blackout in the United States
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I. Background
A. Section 215 and Mandatory
Reliability Standards
8. Section 215 of the FPA requires the
Commission to certify an ERO to
develop mandatory and enforceable
Reliability Standards, subject to
Commission review and approval.26
Once approved, the Reliability
Standards may be enforced in the
United States by the ERO, subject to
Commission oversight, or by the
Commission independently.
9. Pursuant to section 215(d)(5) of the
FPA, the Commission has the authority,
upon its own motion or upon
complaint, to order the ERO to submit
to the Commission a proposed
Reliability Standard or a modification to
a Reliability Standard that addresses a
specific matter if the Commission
considers such a new or modified
Reliability Standard appropriate to carry
out section 215 of the FPA.27
B. Studies of GMD Events on the BulkPower System
10. The impact of GMDs on the BulkPower System has been evaluated in
several government-sponsored studies
and NERC reports. The EMP
Commission issued reports assessing the
threat to the United States from
Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) attack in
2004 and 2008, which also addressed
the effects of geomagnetic storms on the
electric power infrastructure.28 The
NAS Workshop Report addressing the
impact of severe space weather events
was released in 2008. The Oak Ridge
National Laboratory issued the Oak
Ridge Study on the effects of
electromagnetic pulses on the BulkPower System in January 2010. The
NERC HILF Report on high-impact, lowfrequency risks to the Bulk-Power
System was issued in June 2010.29 In
February 2012, NERC issued the NERC
Interim GMD Report evaluating the
is between $4 billion and $10 billion, with the
Department of Energy calculating the total cost to
be $6 billion. Electricity Consumers Resource
Council, The Economic Impacts of the August 2003
Blackout, available at https://www.elcon.org/
Documents/
EconomicImpactsOfAugust2003Blackout.pdf. See
also supra P 5 (citing estimates by the National
Research Council of the National Academies of
potentially $1–2 trillion in economic costs from a
severe GMD event).
26 16 U.S.C. 824o (2006).
27 16 U.S.C. 824o(d)(5); 18 CFR 39.6(f) (2012).
28 These reports are accessible at the Commission
to Assess the Threat to the United States from
Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Attack Web site at
https://www.empcommission.org/.
29 The HILF Report was prepared by NERC,
Department of Energy, and a steering committee
comprised of industry and risk experts and was
approved by the NERC Board of Trustees on May
17, 2010. HILF Report at 2.
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effects of GMDs on the Bulk-Power
System.
11. The Commission conducted a
staff-led Technical Conference on April
30, 2012 to discuss the effects of GMDs
on the reliable operation of the BulkPower System. NERC, government
agencies, industry stakeholders, and
other interested entities attended the
Technical Conference and submitted
post-Technical Conference comments.
C. Effects of GMD Events on the BulkPower System
12. The interaction of the Earth’s
magnetic field and solar events can
cause low frequency GICs to flow along
the surface of the Earth and in the
oceans. Reliability issues arise when
GICs enter the Bulk-Power System from
the Earth. Since many Bulk-Power
System transformers are grounded, the
GIC appears as electrical current to the
Bulk-Power System and flows through
the ground connection and conductors,
such as transformers and transmission
lines.30
13. GICs can cause transformer cores
to become ‘‘saturated,’’ resulting in loss
of reactive power (VARs), the
introduction of harmonic distortions,
and possible physical damage to the
transformer.31 GICs enter the BulkPower System through the grounded
neutrals of transformers and are
responsible for forcing their metal cores
into saturation.32 A primary effect of
saturation is the potential for
transformer damage through the
overheating of internal components.33
30 Oak Ridge National Laboratory,
Electromagnetic Pulse: Effects on the U.S. Power
Grid (Meta-R-322) at page 1–1 (January 2010) (Oak
Ridge Study 322 Report), available at https://www.
ornl.gov/sci/ees/etsd/pes/pubs/ferc_Meta-R-322.
pdf.
31 HILF Report 70–71. Harmonics are currents or
voltages with frequencies that are integer multiples
of the fundamental power frequency (i.e., 60 Hz in
the United States). See Northeast Power
Coordinating Council, Inc. Glossary of Terms,
available at https://www.npcc.org/Standards/
Directories/Glossary%20of%20Terms.pdf. They can
cause overcurrent relays to automatically trip
components (e.g., capacitor banks and static VAR
compensators) from service. HILF Report at 71.
Automatic removal of such components can further
exacerbate system voltages already reduced by the
GIC-related absorption of reactive power.
32 Oak Ridge Study 322 Report at pages 1–1, 7–
11.
33 HILF Report at 70 (‘‘Transformers experience
excessive levels of internal heating brought on by
stray flux when GICs cause the transformer’s
magnetic core to saturate and spill flux outside the
normal core steel magnetic circuit. Previous welldocumented cases have noted heating failures that
caused melting and burn-through of large-amperage
copper windings and leads in these transformers
(Figure 9).’’); Oak Ridge Study 319 Report at page
2–29 (‘‘Also of note from this particular [March
1989] storm is strong evidence that GIC-induced
half-cycle saturation of transformers can indeed
produce enough heat to severely damage or even
destroy exposed large power transformers.’’).
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Saturation is also responsible for
secondary effects, such as the
production of harmonics that are not
present during normal Bulk-Power
System operation and for substantially
increasing the transformer’s absorption
of reactive power from the system, thus
requiring significant amounts of
additional voltage support to
compensate for reactive power
absorption. Harmonic production and
reactive power absorption may interfere
with normal system operations creating
secondary effects on other Bulk-Power
System facilities. These primary and
secondary effects can occur almost
simultaneously over a large geographic
area, resulting in a multiple contingency
outage that has the potential to cascade
across the Bulk-Power System.34
14. The Oak Ridge Study identified
factors that determine the severity of
GMD events, including: (1) Location and
strength of the underlying solar event;
(2) ground conductivity in the affected
locations (i.e., the geology of the
location); (3) orientation of the
transmission lines; (4) length of
transmission lines; and (5) grid
construction.35 A solar disturbance can
cause near-simultaneous, multi-point
failures that can trigger collapse of the
Bulk-Power System.36
II. Discussion
15. As discussed below, the
Commission finds that there is a gap in
the Reliability Standards regarding
GMDs. Therefore, in order to carry out
section 215 of the FPA, the Commission
proposes to direct the ERO to develop
and file for approval Reliability
Standards that address the potentially
severe, wide-spread impact of GMD
events on the reliable operation of the
Bulk-Power System.
16. We propose that the ERO develop
and file the GMD Reliability Standards
in two stages. In the first stage, within
90 days of the effective date of a final
rule in this proceeding, the Commission
proposes to direct NERC to file one or
more Reliability Standards that require
owners and operators of the Bulk-Power
System to develop and implement
operational procedures to mitigate the
effects of GMDs consistent with the
reliable operation of the Bulk-Power
System. In the second stage, the
Commission proposes to direct NERC to
file one or more Reliability Standards,
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34 HILF
Report at 71–72.
Ridge Study 319 Report at page 2–5.
36 Id. at pages 4–1, 4–2. One example cited in the
Oak Ridge Study is the March 13, 1989 solar
disturbance that triggered the collapse of the Hydro´
Quebec power grid, which went from normal to a
situation where it sustained seven contingencies in
an elapsed time of 57 seconds. Id.
35 Oak
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within six months of the effective date
of a final rule in this proceeding, that
require owners and operators of the
Bulk-Power System to assess the impact
of GMDs on Bulk-Power System
equipment and the Bulk-Power System
as a whole. Based on those assessments,
the Reliability Standards would require
owners and operators to develop and
implement a plan so that instability,
uncontrolled separation, or cascading
failures of the Bulk-Power System,
caused by damage to critical or
vulnerable Bulk-Power System
equipment, or otherwise, will not occur
as a result of a GMD. This plan cannot
be limited to operational procedures or
enhanced training alone, but should,
subject to the needs indentified in the
assessments, contain strategies for
protecting against the potential impact
of GMDs based on factors such as the
age, condition, technical specifications,
or location of specific equipment. These
strategies could include automatically
blocking geomagnetically induced
currents from entering the Bulk-Power
System, instituting specification
requirements for new equipment,
inventory management, and isolating
certain equipment that is not cost
effective to retrofit.37
17. In proposing to direct the ERO to
submit Reliability Standards that
address the impact of GMD events on
the reliable operation of the Bulk-Power
System, we are not proposing specific
requirements or otherwise pre-judging
what the ERO may eventually submit.
Instead, we identify concerns that we
believe should be addressed in any
GMD Reliability Standards. We expect
the ERO to support its proposed
Reliability Standards and explain how
they address the Commission’s
concerns.
A. Reliability Standards Requiring
Operational Procedures
18. Requiring operational procedures,
while not a complete solution,
constitutes a first step to addressing the
GMD reliability gap because they can be
implemented relatively quickly.38 The
Commission does not propose to require
the ERO or owners and operators of the
Bulk-Power System to adopt any
particular operational procedures.
Owners and operators of the Bulk-Power
37 The second stage Reliability Standards would
not require owners and operators of the Bulk-Power
System to protect the Bulk-Power System beyond
what is found to be required based on the initial
and ongoing assessments.
38 NERC Interim GMD Report at 79 (‘‘Operating
procedures are the quickest way to put in place
actions that can mitigate the adverse effects of GIC
on system reliability * * * Both system operating
and transmission owner organizations need to have
appropriate procedures and training in place.’’).
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64939
System are the most familiar with the
equipment and system configurations.
Accordingly, we propose that the ERO
file one or more Reliability Standards
requiring owners and operators of the
Bulk-Power System to develop and
implement operational procedures to
mitigate the effects of GMDs consistent
with the reliable operation of the BulkPower System based on the following
guidance.
19. Operational procedures may help
alleviate abnormal system conditions
due to transformer absorption of
reactive power during GMD events,
helping to stabilize system voltage
swings, and may potentially isolate
some equipment from being damaged or
misoperated. The NERC Interim GMD
Report identifies examples of
operational procedures to mitigate GMD
events (i.e., the effects of GICs),
including: reduction of equipment
loading (e.g., by starting off-line
generation), unloading the reactive load
of operating generation, reductions of
system voltage, and system and/or
equipment isolation through
reconfiguration of the transmission
system.39 Some entities already have
operational procedures to mitigate the
effect of GICs on the Bulk-Power System
utilizing system resources.40 The
Commission expects that the ERO and
owners and operators of the Bulk-Power
System will draw on industry’s
experience in developing and
implementing existing operational
procedures. Given that experience, we
propose to direct NERC to file, within
90 days of the effective date of a final
rule in this proceeding, proposed
Reliability Standards that require the
development and implementation of
operational procedures. While this
deadline is aggressive, mandatory and
enforceable Reliability Standards
requiring owners and operators to
implement operational procedures
should be established quickly to afford
some level of uniform protection to the
Bulk-Power System against GMD events.
As discussed above, the impact of GMDs
on the Bulk-Power System has been
studied extensively for many years,
laying the foundation for the prompt
development of these first stage
Reliability Standards. Moreover, the fact
that operational procedures are already
in place in some areas should allow for
39 NERC
Interim GMD Report at 80–81.
e.g., PJM Interconnection, L.L.C., Manual
13: Emergency Operations at 47, available at https://
www.pjm.com/∼/media/documents/manuals/m13.
ashx; Northeast Power Coordinating Council, Inc.,
Procedures for Solar Magnetic Disturbances Which
Affect Electric Power Systems, available at https://
www.npcc.org/Standards/Procedures/c-15.pdf.
40 See,
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faster development and implementation
of these Reliability Standards.
20. While the proposed Reliability
Standards should not necessarily
specify what operational procedures
must be adopted, the ERO should give
owners and operators of the Bulk-Power
System guidance as to what procedures
have been or are expected to be effective
in mitigating the effects of GMDs
consistent with the reliable operation of
the Bulk-Power System. Moreover, the
proposed Reliability Standards should
address the coordination of operational
procedures among responsible entities
across regions.41 Since there could be
potential equipment damage resulting
from a GMD event, the proposed
Reliability Standards should also
address operational procedures for
restoring GMD-impacted portions of the
Bulk-Power System that take into
account the potential for equipment that
is damaged or out-of-service for an
extended period of time.
21. We do not propose to direct a
specific implementation schedule for
the proposed Reliability Standards, but
the Commission encourages the ERO to
require owners and operators of the
Bulk-Power System to implement the
required operational procedures 90 days
after Commission approval of the
Reliability Standards. Following
implementation, the Commission
proposes to require NERC to provide
periodic reports assessing the
effectiveness of the operational
procedures in mitigating the effects of
GMD events. In addition, NERC should
periodically review the required
operational procedures and recommend
to owners and operators that they
incorporate lessons-learned and new
research findings.
22. In addition to developing
Reliability Standards that require
operational procedures during the first
stage, the Commission also proposes to
accept aspects of the ‘‘Initial Actions’’
proposal set forth in NERC’s May 21,
2012 post-Technical Conference
comments. Specifically, NERC proposed
to ‘‘identify facilities most at-risk from
severe geomagnetic disturbance’’ and to
‘‘conduct wide-area geomagnetic
disturbance vulnerability
assessment.’’ 42 As noted in NERC’s
comments regarding the vulnerability
assessments, special attention would be
given to evaluating critical transformers
(e.g., step-up transformers at large
generating facilities). We agree with
NERC that critical Bulk-Power System
facilities should be evaluated for GMD
vulnerability as an initial action. In
addition, as part of the initial action,
special attention should be given to
those Bulk-Power System facilities that
provide service to critical and priority
loads.43 The Commission, therefore,
proposes to direct NERC to conduct this
‘‘initial action’’ simultaneously with the
development and implementation of the
first stage GMD Reliability Standards.
The Commission seeks comment from
NERC and other interested entities on
all aspects of this proposal.
41 NERC Interim GMD Report at 79 (‘‘The
[operating] procedures of these organizations need
to be coordinated with each other and with their
neighboring organizations.’’).
42 NERC Comments at 8–9 (‘‘As the first step in
identifying the risk of geomagnetic disturbance to
the bulk power system, NERC intends to complete
a system-wide vulnerability assessment * * *
special attention will be given to the evaluation of
critical transformers, such as generator step-up
units at large generating facilities * * * a high level
review will be conducted to identify and classify
the at-risk population based on existing peerreviewed research. This assessment will be based
on a high level screening approach that will include
transformer design, condition, geology and
geomagnetic location.’’).
43 The NERC Severe Impact Resilience Task Force
identified critical and priority loads in a report. See
Severe Impact Resilience: Considerations and
Recommendations at 26 (Accepted by NERC Board
of Trustees on May 9, 2012), available at https://
www.nerc.com/docs/oc/sirtf/
SIRTF_Final_May_9_2012-Board_Accepted.pdf.
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B. Second Stage Reliability Standards
23. To address GMDs
comprehensively, the Commission
proposes to direct NERC to develop, in
a second stage, Reliability Standards
that require owners and operators of the
Bulk-Power System to conduct initial
and on-going assessments of the
potential impact of GMDs on BulkPower System equipment and on the
Bulk-Power System as a whole. Based
on those assessments, the Reliability
Standards would require owners and
operators to develop and implement a
plan so that instability, uncontrolled
separation, or cascading failures of the
Bulk-Power System, caused by damage
to critical or vulnerable Bulk-Power
System equipment, or otherwise, will
not occur as a result of a GMD. This
plan cannot be limited to operational
procedures or enhanced training alone,
but should, subject to the needs
identified in the assessments, contain
strategies for protecting against the
potential impact of GMDs based on
factors such as the age, condition,
technical specifications, or location of
specific equipment. These strategies
could include automatically blocking
geomagnetically induced currents from
entering the Bulk-Power System,
instituting specification requirements
for new equipment, inventory
management, and isolating certain
equipment that is not cost effective to
retrofit. While the Commission proposes
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to direct the ERO to submit the
proposed second stage Reliability
Standards within six months of the
effective date of a final rule in this
proceeding, the Commission seeks
comment on the feasibility of a sixmonth deadline.
24. We propose to direct the filing of
these second stage GMD Reliability
Standards because of two concerns with
relying on operational procedures alone:
(1) Owners and operators of the BulkPower System may not have enough
time to initiate effective operating
procedures after being warned of a GMD
event; and (2) operational procedures
may not prevent permanent damage to
Bulk-Power System equipment.44
Current GMD forecasting methods
provide limited time for operators to
react once a GMD warning is issued.45
Even with enough time to react, the Oak
Ridge Study found that, given a large
enough GMD event, operational
procedures are unlikely to provide the
substantial levels of GIC reduction
needed to limit the potential for
permanent damage to transformers.46
The Oak Ridge Study and the HILF
Report also found that widespread
damage to Bulk-Power System
transformers could result in prolonged
outages.47
25. We recognize that the NERC
Interim GMD Report concludes that a
prolonged blackout due to extensive
44 NERC Interim GMD Report at 10 (‘‘These
warning can be received as short as 30 minutes
before the onset of an impending geomagnetic
storm.’’). At the April 30, 2012 Technical
Conference, Mr. Murtagh, Program Coordinator at
the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration’s Space Weather Prediction Center,
stated that a warning is issued when a GMD event
reaches the NASA Advanced Composition Explorer
(ACE) satellite and at that point, in some cases, it
could be 20 or 30 minutes before the event reaches
the Earth’s magnetic field. April 30, 2012 Technical
Conference Tr. 170:5–22 (Murtagh).
45 Mr. Pugh, from the U.S. Department of
Homeland Security’s Interagency Programs Office
Science & Technology Directorate, stated that the
´
operators in the 1989 Hydro-Quebec blackout only
had 90 seconds to react, which was insufficient to
‘‘prevent a massive blackout and significant
equipment damage.’’ April 30, 2012 Technical
Conference Tr. 12:4–7 (Pugh).
46 Oak Ridge Study 322 Report at pages ix and 1–
1.
47 HILF Report at 12 (‘‘The physical damage of
certain system components (e.g. extra-high-voltage
transformers) on a large scale, as could be effected
by any of these threats, could result in prolonged
outages as procurement cycles for these
components range from months to years.’’); Oak
Ridge Study 319 Report at pages 2–33, 2–34 (‘‘An
especially large storm or GIC event could plausibly
create the potential for widespread failure of many
exposed transformers and hamper rapid restoration
capabilities. In extreme cases, where replacements
may take months, a situation may exist where the
demand for electric service can only be partially
supplied, raising the prospect of rationing and
rotating blackouts to regions that are unable to be
fully served.’’).
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damage to Bulk-Power System
transformers is less likely than voltage
instability due to increased reactive
power consumption and loss of reactive
power support, which can lead to
´
blackouts like the 1989 Hydro-Quebec
event.48 The Commission’s proposed
two-stage approach recognizes this
difference by focusing first on the
development of Reliability Standards
requiring operational procedures in a
relatively short time frame. The
Commission proposes to give NERC and
owners and operators of the Bulk-Power
System more time to perform, in the
second stage, initial and on-going
assessments. Based on those
assessments, the Reliability Standards
would require owners and operators to
develop and implement a plan so that
instability, uncontrolled separation, or
cascading failures of the Bulk-Power
System, caused by damage to critical or
vulnerable Bulk-Power System
equipment, or otherwise, will not occur
as a result of a GMD. This plan cannot
be limited to operational procedures or
enhanced training alone, but should,
subject to the needs identified in the
assessments, contain strategies for
protecting against the potential impact
of GMDs based on factors such as the
age, condition, technical specifications,
or location of specific equipment. These
strategies could include automatically
blocking geomagnetically induced
currents from entering the Bulk-Power
System, instituting specification
requirements for new equipment,
inventory management, and isolating
certain equipment that is not cost
effective to retrofit. Moreover, although
the NOPR proposes that the second
stage Reliability Standards be filed
within six months of the effective date
of the final rule, we seek comment on
the feasibility of that deadline.
26. Below, we offer guidance on the
assessments of Bulk-Power System
vulnerability to GMDs and potential
measures for automatically protecting
critical or vulnerable components. In
addition, recognizing the potential for
substantial investments of time and
resources to implement these Reliability
Standards, we offer guidance on an
implementation schedule, which will
likely consist of an extended, multiphase process. The Commission seeks
comment from NERC and other
interested entities on all aspects of this
proposal.
1. GMD Vulnerability Assessments of
the Bulk-Power System
27. The Commission proposes to
direct the ERO to develop Reliability
48 NERC
Interim GMD Report at vi.
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Standards that require owners and
operators of the Bulk-Power System to
conduct vulnerability assessments to
determine how critical or vulnerable
Bulk-Power System components react to
simulated GICs of varying intensities.49
The Commission proposes to direct the
ERO to consider the following
parameters as it develops the Reliability
Standards.50
28. First, the Reliability Standards
should contain uniform evaluation
criteria for owners and operators to
follow when conducting their
assessments. As the Commission noted
with respect to other reliability
assessments, uniformity increases the
accuracy of transmission system
reliability assessments and
consequently enhances overall
reliability.51
29. Second, the assessments should,
through studies and simulations,
evaluate the primary and secondary
effects of GICs on Bulk-Power System
transformers, including the effects of
GICs originating from and passing to
other regions.
30. Third, the assessments should
evaluate the effects of GICs on other
Bulk-Power System equipment, system
operations, and system stability,
including the anticipated loss of critical
or vulnerable devices or elements
resulting from GIC-related issues.52
31. Fourth, in conjunction with
assessments by owners and operators of
their own Bulk-Power System
components, wide-area or Regional
assessments of GIC impacts should be
performed. A severe GMD event can
cause simultaneous stresses at multiple
49 To accurately simulate the impact of GMDs on
the Bulk-Power System, the assessments should
consider the impact of GICs that may enter the
system through transformers that are not treated as
part of the bulk electric system and any impact that
the non-bulk electric system transformers may have
on the reliability of the Bulk-Power System. We do
not propose, however, that equipment falling
outside of our jurisdiction would be required to be
protected under the proposed Reliability Standard.
50 The vulnerability assessments in the second
phase Reliability Standards are distinct from the
‘‘initial action’’ evaluations, discussed above, which
NERC proposed to do and we propose to have
NERC conduct simultaneous with the development
and implementation of the first phase Reliability
Standards. We expect, however, that the analyses
performed in the ‘‘initial action’’ evaluations will be
used to quickly identify and protect the most
critical and vulnerable Bulk-Power System
components once the second stage Reliability
Standards become effective.
51 Mandatory Reliability Standards for the BulkPower System, Order No. 693, FERC Stats. & Regs.
¶ 31,242, at P 1298, order on reh’g, Order No. 693–
A, 120 FERC ¶ 61,053 (2007).
52 The Oak Ridge Study assessment included
GMD modeling, simulation and review of storm
impacts, power grid GIC flows and reactive power
demands, transformer heating and risk of potential
damage to transformers. See generally Oak Ridge
Study 319 Report.
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locations on the Bulk-Power System,
potentially resulting in a multipleoutage event.53 In predicting GIC flows,
it is necessary to take into consideration
the network topology as an integrated
whole (i.e., on a wide-area basis).54
32. Fifth, the assessments should be
periodically updated, taking into
account new facilities, modifications to
existing facilities, and new information,
including new research on GMDs, to
determine whether there are resulting
changes in GMD impacts that require
modifications to Bulk-Power System
mitigation schemes.
33. The Commission seeks comments
from NERC and other interested entities
on all aspects of this proposal.
2. Automatic GIC Blocking for Critical
or Vulnerable Bulk-Power System
Components
34. While we do not propose to
require a particular solution in the
second stage Reliability Standards to
address GMDs, we expect that some
assessments will demonstrate that
automatic blocking is necessary in some
instances. The Commission, above,
proposes to direct the ERO to develop
Reliability Standards that require
owners and operators of the Bulk-Power
System to develop and implement a
plan so that instability, uncontrolled
separation, or cascading failures of the
Bulk-Power System, caused by damage
to critical or vulnerable Bulk-Power
System equipment, or otherwise, will
not occur as a result of a GMD.
Automatic blocking measures address
the major concerns with relying
exclusively on operational procedures
to mitigate GMDs (i.e., the short period
of time to react to a GMD event and the
potential consequences of not reacting
fast enough). Blocking can prevent the
flow of GICs through power
transformers and the Bulk-Power
System.55 Eliminating GICs in
transformers prevents transformer core
saturation and, thus, mitigates or
prevents the effects of GMDs on the
Bulk-Power System (i.e., transformer
overheating, reactive power absorption,
and harmonic generation).
35. The Commission does not propose
to direct the ERO to require a particular
automatic blocking technology, where
blocking is necessary. Instead, the
Commission proposes to direct the ERO
to identify in the proposed Reliability
Standards what would constitute
appropriate automatic blocking
measures. In defining what is an
53 Oak Ridge Study 319 Report at pages A1–1,
A1–2.
54 Id. at page 1–17.
55 NERC Interim GMD Report at 73.
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appropriate blocking measure, the ERO
should address: (1) Its feasibility and
effectiveness; and (2) its ability to
operate without adversely impacting the
reliable operation of the Bulk-Power
System. The Commission proposes that
the Reliability Standards should include
a means by which the ERO can verify
that selected blocking measures are
appropriate.
36. The use of automatic blocking
devices, such as transmission line series
capacitors and transformer neutral
blocking, are possible measures.56 These
devices block or reduce the flow of GIC
in a power grid.57 Although not a means
for blocking GICs, another possible
option is to improve the ‘‘withstand’’
capability of Bulk-Power System
components. The ‘‘withstand’’
capability, in this context, refers to a
component’s ability to withstand
stresses imposed by GICs before
suffering damage, but it does not
prevent GICs from affecting the rest of
the Bulk-Power System (e.g., it does not
prevent the secondary effects of
harmonics or increased reactive power
consumption).58 The ERO should
consider whether the reliability goals of
the proposed Reliability Standards can
be achieved by a combination of
automatic protection measures,
including, for example, some
combination of automatic blocking and
improved ‘‘withstand’’ capability. In
any event, the measures must be
adequate to protect the reliability of the
Bulk-Power System against the risks
identified in the assessments.
37. The Commission seeks comments
from NERC and other interested entities
on all aspects of this proposal.
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3. Implementation Schedule
38. The second stage Reliability
Standards will likely require an
extended, multi-phase implementation
period given the time needed to conduct
the required assessments and the time
and cost of installing any required
automatic protection measures.
Although the Commission does not
propose to direct the ERO to develop a
specific implementation plan, we
believe it would be appropriate for the
proposed Reliability Standard to
include an implementation schedule
that requires owners and operators of
the Bulk-Power System to prioritize
implementation so that components
considered vital to the reliable operation
of the Bulk-Power System are provided
with any necessary automatic protection
56 Oak
Ridge Study 322 Report at ix-x.
57 Id.
58 NERC
Interim GMD Report at 67.
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measures in the earliest phase of the
plan.59
39. The Commission seeks comments
from NERC and other interested entities
on an implementation plan.
III. Information Collection Statement
40. The Office of Management and
Budget (OMB) regulations require
approval of certain information
collection requirements imposed by
agency rules. Upon approval of a
collection(s) of information, OMB will
assign an OMB control number and an
expiration date. Respondents subject to
the filing requirements of an agency rule
will not be penalized for failing to
respond to these collections of
information unless the collections of
information display a valid OMB
control number. The Paperwork
Reduction Act (PRA) requires each
federal agency to seek and obtain OMB
approval before undertaking a collection
of information directed to ten or more
persons, or contained in a rule of
general applicability.
41. The Commission is submitting
these reporting requirements to OMB for
its review and approval under section
3507(d) of the PRA. Comments are
solicited on the Commission’s need for
this information, whether the
information will have practical utility,
ways to enhance the quality, utility, and
clarity of the information to be
collected, and any suggested methods
for minimizing the respondent’s burden,
including the use of automated
information techniques.
42. The Public Reporting Burden and
cost related to the proposed rule in
Docket No. RM12–22–000 are covered
by, and already included in, the existing
FERC–725, Certification of Electric
Reliability Organization; Procedures for
Electric Reliability (OMB Control No.
1902–0225). FERC–725 includes the
ERO’s overall responsibility for
developing Reliability Standards, such
as the Reliability Standards for
Geomagnetic Disturbances.
43. Internal review: The Commission
has reviewed the proposed changes and
has determined that the changes are
necessary to ensure the reliability and
integrity of the Nation’s Bulk-Power
System.
44. Interested persons may obtain
information on the reporting
requirements by contacting: Federal
Energy Regulatory Commission, 888
First Street NE., Washington, DC 20426
[Attention: Ellen Brown, Office of the
59 For
example, critical Bulk-Power System
equipment identified by NERC in the first stage
‘‘initial actions’’ assessments, discussed previously,
should be protected in the earliest phase of the
implementation plan.
PO 00000
Frm 00024
Fmt 4702
Sfmt 4702
Executive Director, email:
DataClearance@ferc.gov, Phone: (202)
502–8663, fax: (202) 273–0873].
Comments on the requirements of this
rule may also be sent to the Office of
Information and Regulatory Affairs,
Office of Management and Budget,
Washington, DC 20503 [Attention: Desk
Officer for the Federal Energy
Regulatory Commission]. For security
reasons, comments should be sent by
email to OMB at
oira_submission@omb.eop.gov. Please
reference OMB Control No. 1902–0225,
FERC–725 and the docket number of
this proposed rulemaking in your
submission.
IV. Environmental Analysis
45. The Commission is required to
prepare an Environmental Assessment
or an Environmental Impact Statement
for any action that may have a
significant adverse effect on the human
environment.60 The Commission has
categorically excluded certain actions
from this requirement as not having a
significant effect on the human
environment. Included in the exclusion
are rules that are clarifying, corrective,
or procedural or that do not
substantially change the effect of the
regulations being amended.61 The
actions proposed here fall within this
categorical exclusion in the
Commission’s regulations.
V. Regulatory Flexibility Act
46. The Regulatory Flexibility Act of
1980 (RFA) 62 generally requires a
description and analysis of proposed
rules that will have significant
economic impact on a substantial
number of small entities.
47. By only proposing to direct NERC,
the Commission-certified ERO, to
develop GMD Reliability Standards, this
Notice of Proposed Rulemaking will not
have a significant or substantial impact
on entities other than NERC. The ERO
develops and files with the Commission
for approval Reliability Standards
affecting the Bulk-Power System, which
represents: (a) A total electricity
demand of 830 gigawatts (830,000
megawatts) and (b) more than $1 trillion
worth of assets. Therefore, the
Commission certifies that this Notice of
Proposed Rulemaking will not have a
significant economic impact on a
substantial number of small entities.
48. Any Reliability Standards
proposed by NERC in compliance with
60 Regulations Implementing the National
Environmental Policy Act of 1969, Order No. 486,
52 FR 47897 (Dec. 17, 1987), FERC Stats. & Regs.,
Regulations Preambles 1986–1990 ¶ 30,783 (1987).
61 18 CFR 380.4(a)(2)(ii).
62 5 U.S.C. 601–612.
E:\FR\FM\24OCP1.SGM
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Federal Register / Vol. 77, No. 206 / Wednesday, October 24, 2012 / Proposed Rules
this rulemaking will be considered by
the Commission in future proceedings.
As part of any future proceedings, the
Commission will make determinations
pertaining to the Regulatory Flexibility
Act based on the content of the
Reliability Standards proposed by
NERC.
srobinson on DSK4SPTVN1PROD with
VI. Comment Procedures
49. The Commission invites interested
persons to submit comments on the
matters and issues proposed in this
notice to be adopted, including any
related matters or alternative proposals
that commenters may wish to discuss.
Comments are due December 24, 2012.
Comments must refer to Docket No.
RM12–22–000, and must include the
commenter’s name, the organization
they represent, if applicable, and their
address in their comments.
50. The Commission encourages
comments to be filed electronically via
the eFiling link on the Commission’s
web site at https://www.ferc.gov. The
Commission accepts most standard
word processing formats. Documents
created electronically using word
processing software should be filed in
native applications or print-to-PDF
format and not in a scanned format.
Commenters filing electronically do not
need to make a paper filing.
51. Commenters that are not able to
file comments electronically must send
an original of their comments to:
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission,
Secretary of the Commission, 888 First
Street NE., Washington, DC 20426.
52. All comments will be placed in
the Commission’s public files and may
be viewed, printed, or downloaded
remotely as described in the Document
Availability section below. Commenters
on this proposal are not required to
serve copies of their comments on other
commenters.
VII. Document Availability
53. In addition to publishing the full
text of this document in the Federal
Register, the Commission provides all
interested persons an opportunity to
view and/or print the contents of this
document via the Internet through the
Commission’s Home Page (https://
www.ferc.gov) and in the Commission’s
Public Reference Room during normal
business hours (8:30 a.m. to 5:00 p.m.
Eastern time) at 888 First Street NE.,
Room 2A, Washington, DC 20426.
54. From the Commission’s Home
Page on the Internet, this information is
available on eLibrary. The full text of
this document is available on eLibrary
in PDF and Microsoft Word format for
viewing, printing, and/or downloading.
To access this document in eLibrary,
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type the docket number excluding the
last three digits of this document in the
docket number field.
55. User assistance is available for
eLibrary and the Commission’s Web site
during normal business hours from the
Commission’s Online Support at 202–
502–6652 (toll free at 1–866–208–3676)
or email at ferconlinesupport@ferc.gov,
or the Public Reference Room at (202)
502–8371, TTY (202) 502–8659. Email
the Public Reference Room at
public.referenceroom@ferc.gov.
64943
33 CFR Part 165
Building Ground Floor, Room W12–140,
1200 New Jersey Avenue SE.,
Washington, DC 20590–0001. Deliveries
accepted between 9 a.m. and 5 p.m.,
Monday through Friday, except federal
holidays. The telephone number is 202–
366–9329.
See the ‘‘Public Participation and
Request for Comments’’ portion of the
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION section
below for further instructions on
submitting comments. To avoid
duplication, please use only one of
these three methods.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: If
you have questions on this rule, call or
email Mr. Ronald L. Houck, Sector
Baltimore, Waterways Management
Division, U.S. Coast Guard; telephone
(410) 576–2674, email Ronald.L.Houck@
uscg.mil. If you have questions on
viewing or submitting material to the
docket, call Renee V. Wright, Program
Manager, Docket Operations, telephone
(202) 366–9826.
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION:
[Docket Number USCG–2012–0938]
Table of Acronyms
RIN 1625–AA87
DHS Department of Homeland Security
FR Federal Register
NPRM Notice of Proposed Rulemaking
By direction of the Commission.
Kimberly D. Bose,
Secretary.
[FR Doc. 2012–26131 Filed 10–23–12; 8:45 am]
BILLING CODE 6717–01–P
DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND
SECURITY
Coast Guard
Security Zone, Potomac and Anacostia
Rivers; Washington, DC
Coast Guard, DHS.
ACTION: Notice of proposed rulemaking.
AGENCY:
The Coast Guard proposes to
establish a temporary security zone
encompassing certain waters of the
Potomac and Anacostia Rivers. This
action is necessary to prevent terrorist
acts and incidents and to safeguard
high-ranking government officials and
the public-at-large immediately before,
during and after activities associated
with the Presidential Inauguration in
Washington, DC from January 15, 2013
through January 24, 2013. This rule
prohibits vessels and people from
entering the security zone and requires
vessels and persons in the security zone
to depart the security zone, unless
specifically exempt under the
provisions in this rule or granted
specific permission from the Coast
Guard Captain of the Port Baltimore.
DATES: Comments and related material
must be received by the Coast Guard on
or before November 23, 2012.
ADDRESSES: You may submit comments
identified by docket number using any
one of the following methods:
(1) Federal eRulemaking Portal:
https://www.regulations.gov.
(2) Fax: 202–493–2251.
(3) Mail or Delivery: Docket
Management Facility (M–30), U.S.
Department of Transportation, West
SUMMARY:
PO 00000
Frm 00025
Fmt 4702
Sfmt 4702
A. Public Participation and Request for
Comments
We encourage you to participate in
this rulemaking by submitting
comments and related materials. All
comments received will be posted
without change to https://www.
regulations.gov and will include any
personal information you have
provided.
1. Submitting Comments
If you submit a comment, please
include the docket number for this
rulemaking, indicate the specific section
of this document to which each
comment applies, and provide a reason
for each suggestion or recommendation.
You may submit your comments and
material online at https://www.
regulations.gov, or by fax, mail, or hand
delivery, but please use only one of
these means. If you submit a comment
online, it will be considered received by
the Coast Guard when you successfully
transmit the comment. If you fax, hand
deliver, or mail your comment, it will be
considered as having been received by
the Coast Guard when it is received at
the Docket Management Facility. We
recommend that you include your name
and a mailing address, an email address,
or a telephone number in the body of
your document so that we can contact
you if we have questions regarding your
submission.
E:\FR\FM\24OCP1.SGM
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Agencies
[Federal Register Volume 77, Number 206 (Wednesday, October 24, 2012)]
[Proposed Rules]
[Pages 64935-64943]
From the Federal Register Online via the Government Printing Office [www.gpo.gov]
[FR Doc No: 2012-26131]
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission
18 CFR Part 40
[Docket No. RM12-22-000]
Reliability Standards for Geomagnetic Disturbances
AGENCY: Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, DOE.
ACTION: Notice of Proposed Rulemaking.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
SUMMARY: Under section 215 of the Federal Power Act, the Federal Energy
[[Page 64936]]
Regulatory Commission (Commission) proposes to direct the North
American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC), the Commission-
certified Electric Reliability Organization, to submit for approval
Reliability Standards that address the impact of geomagnetic
disturbances (GMD) on the reliable operation of the Bulk-Power System.
The Commission proposes to do this in two stages. In the first stage,
the Commission proposes to direct NERC to file, within 90 days of the
effective date of a final rule in this proceeding, one or more
Reliability Standards that require owners and operators of the Bulk-
Power System to develop and implement operational procedures to
mitigate the effects of GMDs consistent with the reliable operation of
the Bulk-Power System. In the second stage, the Commission proposes to
direct NERC to file, within six months of the effective date of a final
rule in this proceeding, one or more Reliability Standards that require
owners and operators of the Bulk-Power System to conduct initial and
on-going assessments of the potential impact of GMDs on Bulk-Power
System equipment and the Bulk-Power System as a whole. Based on those
assessments, the Reliability Standards would require owners and
operators to develop and implement a plan so that instability,
uncontrolled separation, or cascading failures of the Bulk-Power
System, caused by damage to critical or vulnerable Bulk-Power System
equipment, or otherwise, will not occur as a result of a GMD. This plan
cannot be limited to operational procedures or enhanced training alone,
but should, subject to the needs indentified in the assessments,
contain strategies for protecting against the potential impact of GMDs
based on factors such as the age, condition, technical specifications,
or location of specific equipment. These strategies could include
automatically blocking geomagnetically induced currents from entering
the Bulk-Power System, instituting specification requirements for new
equipment, inventory management, and isolating certain equipment that
is not cost effective to retrofit. This second stage would be
implemented in phases, focusing first on the most critical Bulk-Power
System assets.
DATES: Comments are due December 24, 2012.
ADDRESSES: Comments, identified by docket number, may be filed in the
following ways:
Electronic Filing through https://www.ferc.gov. Documents
created electronically using word processing software should be filed
in native applications or print-to-PDF format and not in a scanned
format.
Mail/Hand Delivery: Those unable to file electronically
may mail or hand-deliver comments to: Federal Energy Regulatory
Commission, Secretary of the Commission, 888 First Street NE.,
Washington, DC 20426.
Instructions: For detailed instructions on submitting comments and
additional information on the rulemaking process, see the Comment
Procedures Section of this document.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT:
David Huff (Technical Information), Office of Electric Reliability,
Division of Security, Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, 888 First
Street NE., Washington, DC 20426, (301) 665-1603, David.Huff@ferc.gov.
Matthew Vlissides (Legal Information), Office of the General
Counsel, Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, 888 First Street NE.,
Washington, DC 20426, (202) 502-8408, Matthew.Vlissides@ferc.gov.
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION:
Notice of Proposed Rulemaking
Issued October 18, 2012.
1. Pursuant to section 215(d)(5) of the Federal Power Act (FPA),\1\
the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (Commission) proposes to
direct the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC), the
Commission-certified Electric Reliability Organization (ERO), to file
for approval with the Commission Reliability Standards (GMD Reliability
Standards) that address the risks posed by geomagnetic disturbances
(GMD) to the reliable operation of the Bulk-Power System.\2\ The
Commission proposes to direct NERC to develop the GMD Reliability
Standards in two stages. In the first stage, within 90 days of the
effective date of a final rule in this proceeding, NERC would file one
or more proposed Reliability Standards that require owners and
operators of the Bulk-Power System to develop and implement operational
procedures to mitigate the effects of GMDs consistent with the reliable
operation of the Bulk-Power System. In the second stage, within six
months of the effective date of a final rule in this proceeding, NERC
would file one or more proposed Reliability Standards that require
owners and operators of the Bulk-Power System to conduct initial and
on-going assessments of the potential impact of GMDs on Bulk-Power
System equipment and the Bulk-Power System as a whole. Based on those
assessments, the Reliability Standards would require owners and
operators to develop and implement a plan so that instability,
uncontrolled separation, or cascading failures of the Bulk-Power
System, caused by damage to critical or vulnerable Bulk-Power System
equipment, or otherwise, will not occur as a result of a GMD.\3\ This
plan cannot be limited to operational procedures or enhanced training
alone, but should, subject to the needs indentified in the assessments,
contain strategies for protecting against the potential impact of GMDs
based on factors such as the age, condition, technical specifications,
or location of specific equipment. These strategies could include
automatically blocking geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) from
entering the Bulk-Power System, instituting specification requirements
for new equipment, inventory management, and isolating certain
equipment that is not cost effective to retrofit.\4\ This second stage
would be implemented in phases, focusing first on the most critical
Bulk-Power System assets.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\1\ 16 U.S.C. 824o(d)(5) (2006).
\2\ ``A geomagnetic disturbance occurs when the magnetic field
embedded in the solar wind is opposite that of the earth. This
disturbance, which results in distortions to the earth's magnetic
field, can be of varying intensity and has in the past impacted the
operation of pipelines, communications systems, and electric power
systems.'' Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Electric Utility Industry
Experience with Geomagnetic Disturbances at xiii (1991), available
at https://www.ornl.gov/~webworks/cpr/v823/rpt/51089.pdf.
\3\ 16 U.S.C. 824o(a)(4) (2006).
\4\ Some examples of automatic blocking include series line
capacitors, transformer neutral GIC blocking and/or reduction
devices, and selective tripping of vulnerable assets. Automatic
blocking measures can also include the use of relays that can be set
so that they are activated only when needed.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
2. We take this action based on government-sponsored studies and
NERC studies that conclude that GMD events can have an adverse, wide-
area impact on the reliable operation of the Bulk-Power System.\5\ In a
2010 study prepared for the Commission, Department of Energy, and
Department of Homeland Security, the Oak Ridge National Laboratory
reported that GMD events can develop quickly over large
[[Page 64937]]
geographic footprints, having the capability to produce geographically-
large outages and significant damage to Bulk-Power System equipment.\6\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\5\ See, e.g., The Oak Ridge National Laboratory prepared a
study consisting of six technical reports (collectively, ``Oak Ridge
Study'') on the effects of electromagnetic pulses on the Bulk-Power
System. Available at https://www.ornl.gov/sci/ees/etsd/pes/ferc_emp_gic.shtml; North American Electric Reliability Corp., 2012
Special Reliability Assessment Interim Report: Effects of
Geomagnetic Disturbances on the Bulk Power System at 85 (February
2012) (NERC Interim GMD Report), available at https://www.nerc.com/files/2012GMD.pdf; North American Electric Reliability Corp., High-
Impact, Low-Frequency Event Risk to the North American Bulk Power
System at 68 (June 2010) (HILF Report), available at https://www.nerc.com/files/HILF.pdf.
\6\ Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Electromagnetic Pulse:
Effects on the U.S. Power Grid: Meta-R-319 at pages 1-30, 1-31, 4-1
(January 2010) (Oak Ridge Study 319 Report), available at https://www.ornl.gov/sci/ees/etsd/pes/pubs/ferc_Meta-R-319.pdf.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
3. The seriousness of the risk posed by GMDs to the reliable
operation of the Bulk-Power System was expressed at a Technical
Conference held on April 30, 2012.\7\ At the Technical Conference,
several panelists indicated that severe GMD events could potentially
compromise the reliable operation of the Bulk-Power System, with some
noting as an example the GMD-induced disruption of the Hydro-
Qu[eacute]bec grid in 1989.\8\ At the Technical Conference, panelists
stated that the current 11-year solar activity cycle is expected to hit
its maximum activity in 2013 and large solar events often occur within
four years of such a cycle maximum.\9\ While strong GMDs are infrequent
events, their potential impact on the reliable operation of the Bulk-
Power System (e.g., widespread blackouts) requires Commission action
under section 215(d)(5) of the FPA.\10\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\7\ Written statements presented at the Technical Conference,
post-Technical Conference comments, and Technical Conference
transcript are accessible through the Commission's eLibrary document
retrieval system in Docket No. AD12-13-000.
\8\ See, e.g., Statement of Scott Pugh, U.S. Department of
Homeland Security at 2 (citing 1989 Hydro-Qu[eacute]bec blackout);
Statement of Frank Koza, PJM Interconnection, L.L.C. at 1 (``The
combination of half-cycle transformer saturation and increased
reactive power consumption can lead to voltage collapse and
blackouts if not properly managed.''); Statement of John Kappenman
at 8 (``The bulk power system is the nation's most important
critical infrastructure and unlike other threats, a severe
geomagnetic storms [sic] can impose a near simultaneous nationwide
crippling threat to this vital infrastructure.''); Statement of
Gerry Cauley, NERC at 1 (``Previous examples, such as the 1989 event
in Hydro Qu[eacute]bec demonstrate that severe solar storms
represent a serious risk that can challenge the reliability of the
bulk power system.'').
\9\ April 30, 2012 Technical Conference Tr. 84:14-19 (Pugh);
106:9-15, 169:1-19 (Murtagh).
\10\ 16 U.S.C. 824o(d)(5); see also Transmission Relay
Loadability Reliability Standard, 134 FERC ] 61,127, at P 25 (2011)
(explaining that under section 215(d)(5) ``the Commission, and not
just the ERO, has the responsibility and authority to identify
`specific matters' that it considers appropriate to carry out
section 215. Section 215 establishes a paradigm by which both the
Commission and the ERO are responsible for identifying reliability
gaps--the ERO through its Reliability Standards development process,
where it can independently identify areas of concern and develop
Standards to address them; and the Commission through its review of
proposed Reliability Standards and authority to direct modifications
or new Standards that address specific issues necessary to
effectuate the purposes of section 215.'').
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
4. Currently, GMD vulnerabilities are not adequately addressed in
the Reliability Standards.\11\ This constitutes a reliability gap
because, as discussed below, GMD events can cause the Bulk-Power System
to collapse suddenly and can potentially damage the Bulk-Power System.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\11\ NERC Reliability Standard IRO-005-3a (Reliability
Coordination--Current Day Operations), Requirement R3, is the only
existing requirement that discusses GMDs. Requirement R3 requires
reliability coordinators to make transmission operators and
balancing authorities aware of GMD forecast information and assist
as needed in the development of response plans, but it does not
require steps for mitigating the effects of GMD events.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
5. GMD events affect the Bulk-Power System by introducing
geomagnetically-induced currents \12\ that can cause ``half-cycle
saturation'' of certain high-voltage Bulk-Power System
transformers.\13\ Half-cycle saturation of transformers can lead to
increased consumption of reactive power and creation of disruptive
harmonics that can cause the sudden collapse of the Bulk-Power
System.\14\ Further, half-cycle saturation from GICs can potentially
damage Bulk-Power System transformers because of overheating.\15\
Permanent damage to large transformers due to GICs can lead to
restoration delays for the power grid.\16\ For example, the Oak Ridge
Study assessed the effects of a ``1-in-100 year'' geomagnetic storm on
the modern Bulk-Power System.\17\ The Oak Ridge Study simulation
concluded that such an event could put a significant number of Bulk-
Power System transformers at risk for failure or permanent damage.\18\
The Oak Ridge Study simulation also found that the effects of a GMD
event may be substantially larger if it occurred at lower
latitudes.\19\ Estimates prepared by the National Research Council of
the National Academies concluded that these events have the potential
to cause widespread, long-term losses with economic costs to the United
States estimated at $1-2 trillion and a recovery time of four to ten
years.\20\ The NERC Interim GMD Report concluded, on the other hand,
that the worst-case scenario is ``voltage instability and subsequent
voltage collapse,'' and cites as an example the 1989 Hydro-
Qu[eacute]bec blackout.\21\ While the conclusions of these reports
differ significantly, our proposed action is warranted by even the
lesser consequence of a projected widespread blackout without long-
term, significant damage to the Bulk-Power System. Taking steps to
prevent such blackouts is consistent with maintaining the reliable
operation of the Bulk-Power System.\22\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\12\ GIC is an electrical current created by a solar event that
appears as direct current to the bulk electric system. North
American Electric Reliability Council, March 13, 1989 Geomagnetic
Disturbance at 36 (1989), available at https://www.nerc.com/files/1989-Quebec-Disturbance.pdf. Automatic blocking prevents or reduces
GICs flows into protected Bulk-Power System components without
operator intervention. NERC Interim GMD Report at 73.
\13\ NERC Interim GMD Report at iii-iv. Half-cycle saturation is
an abnormal operating condition whereby a transformer operates
outside nominal voltage design values, saturating the transformer
core with magnetic flux and forcing magnetic flux into other parts
of the transformer. Id. at 25.
\14\ Id. at 3 (``GMD can have * * * a wide range of impacts on
power apparatus and power system operations. The effects on
apparatus range from nuisance events, such as tripping of electrical
equipment, radio interference, and control malfunctions, to large-
scale events, such as voltage and reactive power fluctuations, local
disruption of service, limited equipment failure, and potential
voltage instability resulting in uncontrolled cascading of the bulk
power system.'').
\15\ While disagreements exist as to the likely severity of
transformer damage from GMDs compared with the likelihood of voltage
collapse due to increased reactive power absorption arising from
GMDs, there appears to be a consensus that GMDs can cause at least
some damage to Bulk-Power System transformers. See, e.g., Comments
of the North American Electric Reliability Corporation, Docket No.
AD12-13-000, at 5 (filed May 21, 2012) (``Though the most likely
result is voltage collapse, the GMD Task Force members agreed that,
depending on the transformer health, design, geology and geomagnetic
latitude, geomagnetic induced current flows can result in
transformer loss-of-life, and may ultimately result in the failure
of some transformers.'').
\16\ Oak Ridge Study 319 Report at pages 4-1, 4-3 (``The
recovery could plausibly extend into months in many parts of the
impacted regions * * * These multi-ton apparatus [transformers]
generally cannot be repaired in the field, and if damaged in this
manner, they need to be replaced with new units, which have
manufacture lead times of 12 months or more in the world market.'');
NERC Interim GMD Report at iv (``[R]estoration times for system
collapse due to voltage instability would be a matter of hours to
days, while replacing transformers requires long-lead times (a
number of months) to replace or move spares into place, unless they
are in a nearby location. Therefore, the failure of a large numbers
[sic] of transformers would have considerable impacts on portions of
the system.'').
\17\ Oak Ridge Study 319 Report at page 3-22.
\18\ Id. at page 1-14, Tables 4-1, 4-2, 4-3 (listing numbers of
at-risk transformers).
\19\ Id. at pages 3-25, 3-26.
\20\ National Research Council of the National Academies, Severe
Space Weather Events--Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts: A
Workshop Report at 4 (2008) (NAS Workshop Report), available at
https://www.nap.edu/catalog/12507.html.
\21\ NERC Interim GMD Report at 69.
\22\ 16 U.S.C. 824o(a)(4) (``The term `reliable operation' means
operating the elements of the bulk-power system within equipment and
electric system thermal, voltage, and stability limits so that
instability, uncontrolled separation, or cascading failures of such
system will not occur as a result of a sudden disturbance, including
a cybersecurity incident, or unanticipated failure of system
elements.'').
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
6. Given the potentially severe, wide-spread impact to the reliable
operation of the Bulk-Power System from GMD events and the absence of
existing Reliability Standards to address it, the Commission proposes
to direct the ERO to file with the Commission for approval Reliability
Standards that address this
[[Page 64938]]
reliability gap. In proposing to address the risks posed by GMDs in two
stages, the Commission finds that there are Reliability Standards that
the ERO can develop and file quickly (i.e., requiring GMD operational
procedures) to mitigate the effects of GMDs while it develops other
Reliability Standards that require owners and operators of the Bulk-
Power System to assess the potential impact of GMDs on Bulk-Power
System equipment and the Bulk-Power System as a whole. Based on those
assessments, the Reliability Standards would require owners and
operators to develop and implement a plan so that instability,
uncontrolled separation, or cascading failures of the Bulk-Power
System, caused by damage to critical or vulnerable Bulk-Power System
equipment, or otherwise, will not occur as a result of a GMD. This plan
cannot be limited to operational procedures or enhanced training alone,
but should, subject to the needs identified in the assessments, contain
strategies for protecting against the potential impact of GMDs based on
factors such as the age, condition, technical specifications, or
location of specific equipment. These strategies could include
automatically blocking geomagnetically induced currents from entering
the Bulk-Power System, instituting specification requirements for new
equipment, inventory management, and isolating certain equipment that
is not cost effective to retrofit.\23\
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\23\ See infra PP 34-36.
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7. We recognize that, depending on the results of the initial and
ongoing assessments that would be required under this proposed rule,
there could be substantial costs associated with some measures to
protect against damage to the Bulk-Power System from GMDs.\24\ In
determining that it is appropriate to issue this proposed rule,
however, we have compared such costs against the societal harms,
including the potential costs of equipment damage or prolonged
blackouts, that could result from taking no action.\25\
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\24\ For example, estimates for installing blocking devices on
transformers range from $100,000 to $500,000 for each affected
transformer. See Foundation for Resilient Societies, Comments on
Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (ANPR) of the Nuclear
Regulatory Commission Relating to the Prevention and Mitigation of
Station Blackout, filed in Docket No. AD12-13-000, at 13 (May 4,
2012) (citing $500,000 installed costs per transformer); MITRE
Corp., Impacts of Severe Space Weather on the Electric Grid, at 66
(November 2011) (citing $100,000 cost for neutral-current-blocking-
capacitors per transformer), available at https://www.fas.org/irp/agency/dod/jason/spaceweather.pdf.
\25\ For example the estimated total cost of the August 2003
four-day blackout in the United States is between $4 billion and $10
billion, with the Department of Energy calculating the total cost to
be $6 billion. Electricity Consumers Resource Council, The Economic
Impacts of the August 2003 Blackout, available at https://www.elcon.org/Documents/EconomicImpactsOfAugust2003Blackout.pdf. See
also supra P 5 (citing estimates by the National Research Council of
the National Academies of potentially $1-2 trillion in economic
costs from a severe GMD event).
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I. Background
A. Section 215 and Mandatory Reliability Standards
8. Section 215 of the FPA requires the Commission to certify an ERO
to develop mandatory and enforceable Reliability Standards, subject to
Commission review and approval.\26\ Once approved, the Reliability
Standards may be enforced in the United States by the ERO, subject to
Commission oversight, or by the Commission independently.
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\26\ 16 U.S.C. 824o (2006).
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9. Pursuant to section 215(d)(5) of the FPA, the Commission has the
authority, upon its own motion or upon complaint, to order the ERO to
submit to the Commission a proposed Reliability Standard or a
modification to a Reliability Standard that addresses a specific matter
if the Commission considers such a new or modified Reliability Standard
appropriate to carry out section 215 of the FPA.\27\
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\27\ 16 U.S.C. 824o(d)(5); 18 CFR 39.6(f) (2012).
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B. Studies of GMD Events on the Bulk-Power System
10. The impact of GMDs on the Bulk-Power System has been evaluated
in several government-sponsored studies and NERC reports. The EMP
Commission issued reports assessing the threat to the United States
from Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) attack in 2004 and 2008, which also
addressed the effects of geomagnetic storms on the electric power
infrastructure.\28\ The NAS Workshop Report addressing the impact of
severe space weather events was released in 2008. The Oak Ridge
National Laboratory issued the Oak Ridge Study on the effects of
electromagnetic pulses on the Bulk-Power System in January 2010. The
NERC HILF Report on high-impact, low-frequency risks to the Bulk-Power
System was issued in June 2010.\29\ In February 2012, NERC issued the
NERC Interim GMD Report evaluating the effects of GMDs on the Bulk-
Power System.
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\28\ These reports are accessible at the Commission to Assess
the Threat to the United States from Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP)
Attack Web site at https://www.empcommission.org/.
\29\ The HILF Report was prepared by NERC, Department of Energy,
and a steering committee comprised of industry and risk experts and
was approved by the NERC Board of Trustees on May 17, 2010. HILF
Report at 2.
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11. The Commission conducted a staff-led Technical Conference on
April 30, 2012 to discuss the effects of GMDs on the reliable operation
of the Bulk-Power System. NERC, government agencies, industry
stakeholders, and other interested entities attended the Technical
Conference and submitted post-Technical Conference comments.
C. Effects of GMD Events on the Bulk-Power System
12. The interaction of the Earth's magnetic field and solar events
can cause low frequency GICs to flow along the surface of the Earth and
in the oceans. Reliability issues arise when GICs enter the Bulk-Power
System from the Earth. Since many Bulk-Power System transformers are
grounded, the GIC appears as electrical current to the Bulk-Power
System and flows through the ground connection and conductors, such as
transformers and transmission lines.\30\
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\30\ Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Electromagnetic Pulse:
Effects on the U.S. Power Grid (Meta-R-322) at page 1-1 (January
2010) (Oak Ridge Study 322 Report), available at https://www.ornl.gov/sci/ees/etsd/pes/pubs/ferc_Meta-R-322.pdf.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
13. GICs can cause transformer cores to become ``saturated,''
resulting in loss of reactive power (VARs), the introduction of
harmonic distortions, and possible physical damage to the
transformer.\31\ GICs enter the Bulk-Power System through the grounded
neutrals of transformers and are responsible for forcing their metal
cores into saturation.\32\ A primary effect of saturation is the
potential for transformer damage through the overheating of internal
components.\33\
[[Page 64939]]
Saturation is also responsible for secondary effects, such as the
production of harmonics that are not present during normal Bulk-Power
System operation and for substantially increasing the transformer's
absorption of reactive power from the system, thus requiring
significant amounts of additional voltage support to compensate for
reactive power absorption. Harmonic production and reactive power
absorption may interfere with normal system operations creating
secondary effects on other Bulk-Power System facilities. These primary
and secondary effects can occur almost simultaneously over a large
geographic area, resulting in a multiple contingency outage that has
the potential to cascade across the Bulk-Power System.\34\
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\31\ HILF Report 70-71. Harmonics are currents or voltages with
frequencies that are integer multiples of the fundamental power
frequency (i.e., 60 Hz in the United States). See Northeast Power
Coordinating Council, Inc. Glossary of Terms, available at https://www.npcc.org/Standards/Directories/Glossary%20of%20Terms.pdf. They
can cause overcurrent relays to automatically trip components (e.g.,
capacitor banks and static VAR compensators) from service. HILF
Report at 71. Automatic removal of such components can further
exacerbate system voltages already reduced by the GIC-related
absorption of reactive power.
\32\ Oak Ridge Study 322 Report at pages 1-1, 7-11.
\33\ HILF Report at 70 (``Transformers experience excessive
levels of internal heating brought on by stray flux when GICs cause
the transformer's magnetic core to saturate and spill flux outside
the normal core steel magnetic circuit. Previous well-documented
cases have noted heating failures that caused melting and burn-
through of large-amperage copper windings and leads in these
transformers (Figure 9).''); Oak Ridge Study 319 Report at page 2-29
(``Also of note from this particular [March 1989] storm is strong
evidence that GIC-induced half-cycle saturation of transformers can
indeed produce enough heat to severely damage or even destroy
exposed large power transformers.'').
\34\ HILF Report at 71-72.
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14. The Oak Ridge Study identified factors that determine the
severity of GMD events, including: (1) Location and strength of the
underlying solar event; (2) ground conductivity in the affected
locations (i.e., the geology of the location); (3) orientation of the
transmission lines; (4) length of transmission lines; and (5) grid
construction.\35\ A solar disturbance can cause near-simultaneous,
multi-point failures that can trigger collapse of the Bulk-Power
System.\36\
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\35\ Oak Ridge Study 319 Report at page 2-5.
\36\ Id. at pages 4-1, 4-2. One example cited in the Oak Ridge
Study is the March 13, 1989 solar disturbance that triggered the
collapse of the Hydro-Qu[eacute]bec power grid, which went from
normal to a situation where it sustained seven contingencies in an
elapsed time of 57 seconds. Id.
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II. Discussion
15. As discussed below, the Commission finds that there is a gap in
the Reliability Standards regarding GMDs. Therefore, in order to carry
out section 215 of the FPA, the Commission proposes to direct the ERO
to develop and file for approval Reliability Standards that address the
potentially severe, wide-spread impact of GMD events on the reliable
operation of the Bulk-Power System.
16. We propose that the ERO develop and file the GMD Reliability
Standards in two stages. In the first stage, within 90 days of the
effective date of a final rule in this proceeding, the Commission
proposes to direct NERC to file one or more Reliability Standards that
require owners and operators of the Bulk-Power System to develop and
implement operational procedures to mitigate the effects of GMDs
consistent with the reliable operation of the Bulk-Power System. In the
second stage, the Commission proposes to direct NERC to file one or
more Reliability Standards, within six months of the effective date of
a final rule in this proceeding, that require owners and operators of
the Bulk-Power System to assess the impact of GMDs on Bulk-Power System
equipment and the Bulk-Power System as a whole. Based on those
assessments, the Reliability Standards would require owners and
operators to develop and implement a plan so that instability,
uncontrolled separation, or cascading failures of the Bulk-Power
System, caused by damage to critical or vulnerable Bulk-Power System
equipment, or otherwise, will not occur as a result of a GMD. This plan
cannot be limited to operational procedures or enhanced training alone,
but should, subject to the needs indentified in the assessments,
contain strategies for protecting against the potential impact of GMDs
based on factors such as the age, condition, technical specifications,
or location of specific equipment. These strategies could include
automatically blocking geomagnetically induced currents from entering
the Bulk-Power System, instituting specification requirements for new
equipment, inventory management, and isolating certain equipment that
is not cost effective to retrofit.\37\
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\37\ The second stage Reliability Standards would not require
owners and operators of the Bulk-Power System to protect the Bulk-
Power System beyond what is found to be required based on the
initial and ongoing assessments.
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17. In proposing to direct the ERO to submit Reliability Standards
that address the impact of GMD events on the reliable operation of the
Bulk-Power System, we are not proposing specific requirements or
otherwise pre-judging what the ERO may eventually submit. Instead, we
identify concerns that we believe should be addressed in any GMD
Reliability Standards. We expect the ERO to support its proposed
Reliability Standards and explain how they address the Commission's
concerns.
A. Reliability Standards Requiring Operational Procedures
18. Requiring operational procedures, while not a complete
solution, constitutes a first step to addressing the GMD reliability
gap because they can be implemented relatively quickly.\38\ The
Commission does not propose to require the ERO or owners and operators
of the Bulk-Power System to adopt any particular operational
procedures. Owners and operators of the Bulk-Power System are the most
familiar with the equipment and system configurations. Accordingly, we
propose that the ERO file one or more Reliability Standards requiring
owners and operators of the Bulk-Power System to develop and implement
operational procedures to mitigate the effects of GMDs consistent with
the reliable operation of the Bulk-Power System based on the following
guidance.
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\38\ NERC Interim GMD Report at 79 (``Operating procedures are
the quickest way to put in place actions that can mitigate the
adverse effects of GIC on system reliability * * * Both system
operating and transmission owner organizations need to have
appropriate procedures and training in place.'').
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19. Operational procedures may help alleviate abnormal system
conditions due to transformer absorption of reactive power during GMD
events, helping to stabilize system voltage swings, and may potentially
isolate some equipment from being damaged or misoperated. The NERC
Interim GMD Report identifies examples of operational procedures to
mitigate GMD events (i.e., the effects of GICs), including: reduction
of equipment loading (e.g., by starting off-line generation), unloading
the reactive load of operating generation, reductions of system
voltage, and system and/or equipment isolation through reconfiguration
of the transmission system.\39\ Some entities already have operational
procedures to mitigate the effect of GICs on the Bulk-Power System
utilizing system resources.\40\ The Commission expects that the ERO and
owners and operators of the Bulk-Power System will draw on industry's
experience in developing and implementing existing operational
procedures. Given that experience, we propose to direct NERC to file,
within 90 days of the effective date of a final rule in this
proceeding, proposed Reliability Standards that require the development
and implementation of operational procedures. While this deadline is
aggressive, mandatory and enforceable Reliability Standards requiring
owners and operators to implement operational procedures should be
established quickly to afford some level of uniform protection to the
Bulk-Power System against GMD events. As discussed above, the impact of
GMDs on the Bulk-Power System has been studied extensively for many
years, laying the foundation for the prompt development of these first
stage Reliability Standards. Moreover, the fact that operational
procedures are already in place in some areas should allow for
[[Page 64940]]
faster development and implementation of these Reliability Standards.
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\39\ NERC Interim GMD Report at 80-81.
\40\ See, e.g., PJM Interconnection, L.L.C., Manual 13:
Emergency Operations at 47, available at https://www.pjm.com/~/media/
documents/manuals/m13.ashx; Northeast Power Coordinating Council,
Inc., Procedures for Solar Magnetic Disturbances Which Affect
Electric Power Systems, available at https://www.npcc.org/Standards/Procedures/c-15.pdf.
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20. While the proposed Reliability Standards should not necessarily
specify what operational procedures must be adopted, the ERO should
give owners and operators of the Bulk-Power System guidance as to what
procedures have been or are expected to be effective in mitigating the
effects of GMDs consistent with the reliable operation of the Bulk-
Power System. Moreover, the proposed Reliability Standards should
address the coordination of operational procedures among responsible
entities across regions.\41\ Since there could be potential equipment
damage resulting from a GMD event, the proposed Reliability Standards
should also address operational procedures for restoring GMD-impacted
portions of the Bulk-Power System that take into account the potential
for equipment that is damaged or out-of-service for an extended period
of time.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\41\ NERC Interim GMD Report at 79 (``The [operating] procedures
of these organizations need to be coordinated with each other and
with their neighboring organizations.'').
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
21. We do not propose to direct a specific implementation schedule
for the proposed Reliability Standards, but the Commission encourages
the ERO to require owners and operators of the Bulk-Power System to
implement the required operational procedures 90 days after Commission
approval of the Reliability Standards. Following implementation, the
Commission proposes to require NERC to provide periodic reports
assessing the effectiveness of the operational procedures in mitigating
the effects of GMD events. In addition, NERC should periodically review
the required operational procedures and recommend to owners and
operators that they incorporate lessons-learned and new research
findings.
22. In addition to developing Reliability Standards that require
operational procedures during the first stage, the Commission also
proposes to accept aspects of the ``Initial Actions'' proposal set
forth in NERC's May 21, 2012 post-Technical Conference comments.
Specifically, NERC proposed to ``identify facilities most at-risk from
severe geomagnetic disturbance'' and to ``conduct wide-area geomagnetic
disturbance vulnerability assessment.'' \42\ As noted in NERC's
comments regarding the vulnerability assessments, special attention
would be given to evaluating critical transformers (e.g., step-up
transformers at large generating facilities). We agree with NERC that
critical Bulk-Power System facilities should be evaluated for GMD
vulnerability as an initial action. In addition, as part of the initial
action, special attention should be given to those Bulk-Power System
facilities that provide service to critical and priority loads.\43\ The
Commission, therefore, proposes to direct NERC to conduct this
``initial action'' simultaneously with the development and
implementation of the first stage GMD Reliability Standards. The
Commission seeks comment from NERC and other interested entities on all
aspects of this proposal.
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\42\ NERC Comments at 8-9 (``As the first step in identifying
the risk of geomagnetic disturbance to the bulk power system, NERC
intends to complete a system-wide vulnerability assessment * * *
special attention will be given to the evaluation of critical
transformers, such as generator step-up units at large generating
facilities * * * a high level review will be conducted to identify
and classify the at-risk population based on existing peer-reviewed
research. This assessment will be based on a high level screening
approach that will include transformer design, condition, geology
and geomagnetic location.'').
\43\ The NERC Severe Impact Resilience Task Force identified
critical and priority loads in a report. See Severe Impact
Resilience: Considerations and Recommendations at 26 (Accepted by
NERC Board of Trustees on May 9, 2012), available at https://www.nerc.com/docs/oc/sirtf/SIRTF_Final_May_9_2012-Board_Accepted.pdf.
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B. Second Stage Reliability Standards
23. To address GMDs comprehensively, the Commission proposes to
direct NERC to develop, in a second stage, Reliability Standards that
require owners and operators of the Bulk-Power System to conduct
initial and on-going assessments of the potential impact of GMDs on
Bulk-Power System equipment and on the Bulk-Power System as a whole.
Based on those assessments, the Reliability Standards would require
owners and operators to develop and implement a plan so that
instability, uncontrolled separation, or cascading failures of the
Bulk-Power System, caused by damage to critical or vulnerable Bulk-
Power System equipment, or otherwise, will not occur as a result of a
GMD. This plan cannot be limited to operational procedures or enhanced
training alone, but should, subject to the needs identified in the
assessments, contain strategies for protecting against the potential
impact of GMDs based on factors such as the age, condition, technical
specifications, or location of specific equipment. These strategies
could include automatically blocking geomagnetically induced currents
from entering the Bulk-Power System, instituting specification
requirements for new equipment, inventory management, and isolating
certain equipment that is not cost effective to retrofit. While the
Commission proposes to direct the ERO to submit the proposed second
stage Reliability Standards within six months of the effective date of
a final rule in this proceeding, the Commission seeks comment on the
feasibility of a six-month deadline.
24. We propose to direct the filing of these second stage GMD
Reliability Standards because of two concerns with relying on
operational procedures alone: (1) Owners and operators of the Bulk-
Power System may not have enough time to initiate effective operating
procedures after being warned of a GMD event; and (2) operational
procedures may not prevent permanent damage to Bulk-Power System
equipment.\44\ Current GMD forecasting methods provide limited time for
operators to react once a GMD warning is issued.\45\ Even with enough
time to react, the Oak Ridge Study found that, given a large enough GMD
event, operational procedures are unlikely to provide the substantial
levels of GIC reduction needed to limit the potential for permanent
damage to transformers.\46\ The Oak Ridge Study and the HILF Report
also found that widespread damage to Bulk-Power System transformers
could result in prolonged outages.\47\
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\44\ NERC Interim GMD Report at 10 (``These warning can be
received as short as 30 minutes before the onset of an impending
geomagnetic storm.''). At the April 30, 2012 Technical Conference,
Mr. Murtagh, Program Coordinator at the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center, stated
that a warning is issued when a GMD event reaches the NASA Advanced
Composition Explorer (ACE) satellite and at that point, in some
cases, it could be 20 or 30 minutes before the event reaches the
Earth's magnetic field. April 30, 2012 Technical Conference Tr.
170:5-22 (Murtagh).
\45\ Mr. Pugh, from the U.S. Department of Homeland Security's
Interagency Programs Office Science & Technology Directorate, stated
that the operators in the 1989 Hydro-Qu[eacute]bec blackout only had
90 seconds to react, which was insufficient to ``prevent a massive
blackout and significant equipment damage.'' April 30, 2012
Technical Conference Tr. 12:4-7 (Pugh).
\46\ Oak Ridge Study 322 Report at pages ix and 1-1.
\47\ HILF Report at 12 (``The physical damage of certain system
components (e.g. extra-high-voltage transformers) on a large scale,
as could be effected by any of these threats, could result in
prolonged outages as procurement cycles for these components range
from months to years.''); Oak Ridge Study 319 Report at pages 2-33,
2-34 (``An especially large storm or GIC event could plausibly
create the potential for widespread failure of many exposed
transformers and hamper rapid restoration capabilities. In extreme
cases, where replacements may take months, a situation may exist
where the demand for electric service can only be partially
supplied, raising the prospect of rationing and rotating blackouts
to regions that are unable to be fully served.'').
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25. We recognize that the NERC Interim GMD Report concludes that a
prolonged blackout due to extensive
[[Page 64941]]
damage to Bulk-Power System transformers is less likely than voltage
instability due to increased reactive power consumption and loss of
reactive power support, which can lead to blackouts like the 1989
Hydro-Qu[eacute]bec event.\48\ The Commission's proposed two-stage
approach recognizes this difference by focusing first on the
development of Reliability Standards requiring operational procedures
in a relatively short time frame. The Commission proposes to give NERC
and owners and operators of the Bulk-Power System more time to perform,
in the second stage, initial and on-going assessments. Based on those
assessments, the Reliability Standards would require owners and
operators to develop and implement a plan so that instability,
uncontrolled separation, or cascading failures of the Bulk-Power
System, caused by damage to critical or vulnerable Bulk-Power System
equipment, or otherwise, will not occur as a result of a GMD. This plan
cannot be limited to operational procedures or enhanced training alone,
but should, subject to the needs identified in the assessments, contain
strategies for protecting against the potential impact of GMDs based on
factors such as the age, condition, technical specifications, or
location of specific equipment. These strategies could include
automatically blocking geomagnetically induced currents from entering
the Bulk-Power System, instituting specification requirements for new
equipment, inventory management, and isolating certain equipment that
is not cost effective to retrofit. Moreover, although the NOPR proposes
that the second stage Reliability Standards be filed within six months
of the effective date of the final rule, we seek comment on the
feasibility of that deadline.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\48\ NERC Interim GMD Report at vi.
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26. Below, we offer guidance on the assessments of Bulk-Power
System vulnerability to GMDs and potential measures for automatically
protecting critical or vulnerable components. In addition, recognizing
the potential for substantial investments of time and resources to
implement these Reliability Standards, we offer guidance on an
implementation schedule, which will likely consist of an extended,
multi-phase process. The Commission seeks comment from NERC and other
interested entities on all aspects of this proposal.
1. GMD Vulnerability Assessments of the Bulk-Power System
27. The Commission proposes to direct the ERO to develop
Reliability Standards that require owners and operators of the Bulk-
Power System to conduct vulnerability assessments to determine how
critical or vulnerable Bulk-Power System components react to simulated
GICs of varying intensities.\49\ The Commission proposes to direct the
ERO to consider the following parameters as it develops the Reliability
Standards.\50\
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\49\ To accurately simulate the impact of GMDs on the Bulk-Power
System, the assessments should consider the impact of GICs that may
enter the system through transformers that are not treated as part
of the bulk electric system and any impact that the non-bulk
electric system transformers may have on the reliability of the
Bulk-Power System. We do not propose, however, that equipment
falling outside of our jurisdiction would be required to be
protected under the proposed Reliability Standard.
\50\ The vulnerability assessments in the second phase
Reliability Standards are distinct from the ``initial action''
evaluations, discussed above, which NERC proposed to do and we
propose to have NERC conduct simultaneous with the development and
implementation of the first phase Reliability Standards. We expect,
however, that the analyses performed in the ``initial action''
evaluations will be used to quickly identify and protect the most
critical and vulnerable Bulk-Power System components once the second
stage Reliability Standards become effective.
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28. First, the Reliability Standards should contain uniform
evaluation criteria for owners and operators to follow when conducting
their assessments. As the Commission noted with respect to other
reliability assessments, uniformity increases the accuracy of
transmission system reliability assessments and consequently enhances
overall reliability.\51\
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\51\ Mandatory Reliability Standards for the Bulk-Power System,
Order No. 693, FERC Stats. & Regs. ] 31,242, at P 1298, order on
reh'g, Order No. 693-A, 120 FERC ] 61,053 (2007).
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29. Second, the assessments should, through studies and
simulations, evaluate the primary and secondary effects of GICs on
Bulk-Power System transformers, including the effects of GICs
originating from and passing to other regions.
30. Third, the assessments should evaluate the effects of GICs on
other Bulk-Power System equipment, system operations, and system
stability, including the anticipated loss of critical or vulnerable
devices or elements resulting from GIC-related issues.\52\
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\52\ The Oak Ridge Study assessment included GMD modeling,
simulation and review of storm impacts, power grid GIC flows and
reactive power demands, transformer heating and risk of potential
damage to transformers. See generally Oak Ridge Study 319 Report.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
31. Fourth, in conjunction with assessments by owners and operators
of their own Bulk-Power System components, wide-area or Regional
assessments of GIC impacts should be performed. A severe GMD event can
cause simultaneous stresses at multiple locations on the Bulk-Power
System, potentially resulting in a multiple-outage event.\53\ In
predicting GIC flows, it is necessary to take into consideration the
network topology as an integrated whole (i.e., on a wide-area
basis).\54\
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\53\ Oak Ridge Study 319 Report at pages A1-1, A1-2.
\54\ Id. at page 1-17.
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32. Fifth, the assessments should be periodically updated, taking
into account new facilities, modifications to existing facilities, and
new information, including new research on GMDs, to determine whether
there are resulting changes in GMD impacts that require modifications
to Bulk-Power System mitigation schemes.
33. The Commission seeks comments from NERC and other interested
entities on all aspects of this proposal.
2. Automatic GIC Blocking for Critical or Vulnerable Bulk-Power System
Components
34. While we do not propose to require a particular solution in the
second stage Reliability Standards to address GMDs, we expect that some
assessments will demonstrate that automatic blocking is necessary in
some instances. The Commission, above, proposes to direct the ERO to
develop Reliability Standards that require owners and operators of the
Bulk-Power System to develop and implement a plan so that instability,
uncontrolled separation, or cascading failures of the Bulk-Power
System, caused by damage to critical or vulnerable Bulk-Power System
equipment, or otherwise, will not occur as a result of a GMD. Automatic
blocking measures address the major concerns with relying exclusively
on operational procedures to mitigate GMDs (i.e., the short period of
time to react to a GMD event and the potential consequences of not
reacting fast enough). Blocking can prevent the flow of GICs through
power transformers and the Bulk-Power System.\55\ Eliminating GICs in
transformers prevents transformer core saturation and, thus, mitigates
or prevents the effects of GMDs on the Bulk-Power System (i.e.,
transformer overheating, reactive power absorption, and harmonic
generation).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\55\ NERC Interim GMD Report at 73.
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35. The Commission does not propose to direct the ERO to require a
particular automatic blocking technology, where blocking is necessary.
Instead, the Commission proposes to direct the ERO to identify in the
proposed Reliability Standards what would constitute appropriate
automatic blocking measures. In defining what is an
[[Page 64942]]
appropriate blocking measure, the ERO should address: (1) Its
feasibility and effectiveness; and (2) its ability to operate without
adversely impacting the reliable operation of the Bulk-Power System.
The Commission proposes that the Reliability Standards should include a
means by which the ERO can verify that selected blocking measures are
appropriate.
36. The use of automatic blocking devices, such as transmission
line series capacitors and transformer neutral blocking, are possible
measures.\56\ These devices block or reduce the flow of GIC in a power
grid.\57\ Although not a means for blocking GICs, another possible
option is to improve the ``withstand'' capability of Bulk-Power System
components. The ``withstand'' capability, in this context, refers to a
component's ability to withstand stresses imposed by GICs before
suffering damage, but it does not prevent GICs from affecting the rest
of the Bulk-Power System (e.g., it does not prevent the secondary
effects of harmonics or increased reactive power consumption).\58\ The
ERO should consider whether the reliability goals of the proposed
Reliability Standards can be achieved by a combination of automatic
protection measures, including, for example, some combination of
automatic blocking and improved ``withstand'' capability. In any event,
the measures must be adequate to protect the reliability of the Bulk-
Power System against the risks identified in the assessments.
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\56\ Oak Ridge Study 322 Report at ix-x.
\57\ Id.
\58\ NERC Interim GMD Report at 67.
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37. The Commission seeks comments from NERC and other interested
entities on all aspects of this proposal.
3. Implementation Schedule
38. The second stage Reliability Standards will likely require an
extended, multi-phase implementation period given the time needed to
conduct the required assessments and the time and cost of installing
any required automatic protection measures. Although the Commission
does not propose to direct the ERO to develop a specific implementation
plan, we believe it would be appropriate for the proposed Reliability
Standard to include an implementation schedule that requires owners and
operators of the Bulk-Power System to prioritize implementation so that
components considered vital to the reliable operation of the Bulk-Power
System are provided with any necessary automatic protection measures in
the earliest phase of the plan.\59\
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\59\ For example, critical Bulk-Power System equipment
identified by NERC in the first stage ``initial actions''
assessments, discussed previously, should be protected in the
earliest phase of the implementation plan.
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39. The Commission seeks comments from NERC and other interested
entities on an implementation plan.
III. Information Collection Statement
40. The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) regulations require
approval of certain information collection requirements imposed by
agency rules. Upon approval of a collection(s) of information, OMB will
assign an OMB control number and an expiration date. Respondents
subject to the filing requirements of an agency rule will not be
penalized for failing to respond to these collections of information
unless the collections of information display a valid OMB control
number. The Paperwork Reduction Act (PRA) requires each federal agency
to seek and obtain OMB approval before undertaking a collection of
information directed to ten or more persons, or contained in a rule of
general applicability.
41. The Commission is submitting these reporting requirements to
OMB for its review and approval under section 3507(d) of the PRA.
Comments are solicited on the Commission's need for this information,
whether the information will have practical utility, ways to enhance
the quality, utility, and clarity of the information to be collected,
and any suggested methods for minimizing the respondent's burden,
including the use of automated information techniques.
42. The Public Reporting Burden and cost related to the proposed
rule in Docket No. RM12-22-000 are covered by, and already included in,
the existing FERC-725, Certification of Electric Reliability
Organization; Procedures for Electric Reliability (OMB Control No.
1902-0225). FERC-725 includes the ERO's overall responsibility for
developing Reliability Standards, such as the Reliability Standards for
Geomagnetic Disturbances.
43. Internal review: The Commission has reviewed the proposed
changes and has determined that the changes are necessary to ensure the
reliability and integrity of the Nation's Bulk-Power System.
44. Interested persons may obtain information on the reporting
requirements by contacting: Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, 888
First Street NE., Washington, DC 20426 [Attention: Ellen Brown, Office
of the Executive Director, email: DataClearance@ferc.gov, Phone: (202)
502-8663, fax: (202) 273-0873]. Comments on the requirements of this
rule may also be sent to the Office of Information and Regulatory
Affairs, Office of Management and Budget, Washington, DC 20503
[Attention: Desk Officer for the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission].
For security reasons, comments should be sent by email to OMB at oira_submission@omb.eop.gov. Please reference OMB Control No. 1902-0225,
FERC-725 and the docket number of this proposed rulemaking in your
submission.
IV. Environmental Analysis
45. The Commission is required to prepare an Environmental
Assessment or an Environmental Impact Statement for any action that may
have a significant adverse effect on the human environment.\60\ The
Commission has categorically excluded certain actions from this
requirement as not having a significant effect on the human
environment. Included in the exclusion are rules that are clarifying,
corrective, or procedural or that do not substantially change the
effect of the regulations being amended.\61\ The actions proposed here
fall within this categorical exclusion in the Commission's regulations.
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\60\ Regulations Implementing the National Environmental Policy
Act of 1969, Order No. 486, 52 FR 47897 (Dec. 17, 1987), FERC Stats.
& Regs., Regulations Preambles 1986-1990 ] 30,783 (1987).
\61\ 18 CFR 380.4(a)(2)(ii).
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V. Regulatory Flexibility Act
46. The Regulatory Flexibility Act of 1980 (RFA) \62\ generally
requires a description and analysis of proposed rules that will have
significant economic impact on a substantial number of small entities.
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\62\ 5 U.S.C. 601-612.
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47. By only proposing to direct NERC, the Commission-certified ERO,
to develop GMD Reliability Standards, this Notice of Proposed
Rulemaking will not have a significant or substantial impact on
entities other than NERC. The ERO develops and files with the
Commission for approval Reliability Standards affecting the Bulk-Power
System, which represents: (a) A total electricity demand of 830
gigawatts (830,000 megawatts) and (b) more than $1 trillion worth of
assets. Therefore, the Commission certifies that this Notice of
Proposed Rulemaking will not have a significant economic impact on a
substantial number of small entities.
48. Any Reliability Standards proposed by NERC in compliance with
[[Page 64943]]
this rulemaking will be considered by the Commission in future
proceedings. As part of any future proceedings, the Commission will
make determinations pertaining to the Regulatory Flexibility Act based
on the content of the Reliability Standards proposed by NERC.
VI. Comment Procedures
49. The Commission invites interested persons to submit comments on
the matters and issues proposed in this notice to be adopted, including
any related matters or alternative proposals that commenters may wish
to discuss. Comments are due December 24, 2012. Comments must refer to
Docket No. RM12-22-000, and must include the commenter's name, the
organization they represent, if applicable, and their address in their
comments.
50. The Commission encourages comments to be filed electronically
via the eFiling link on the Commission's web site at https://www.ferc.gov. The Commission accepts most standard word processing
formats. Documents created electronically using word processing
software should be filed in native applications or print-to-PDF format
and not in a scanned format. Commenters filing electronically do not
need to make a paper filing.
51. Commenters that are not able to file comments electronically
must send an original of their comments to: Federal Energy Regulatory
Commission, Secretary of the Commission, 888 First Street NE.,
Washington, DC 20426.
52. All comments will be placed in the Commission's public files
and may be viewed, printed, or downloaded remotely as described in the
Document Availability section below. Commenters on this proposal are
not required to serve copies of their comments on other commenters.
VII. Document Availability
53. In addition to publishing the full text of this document in the
Federal Register, the Commission provides all interested persons an
opportunity to view and/or print the contents of this document via the
Internet through the Commission's Home Page (https://www.ferc.gov) and
in the Commission's Public Reference Room during normal business hours
(8:30 a.m. to 5:00 p.m. Eastern time) at 888 First Street NE., Room 2A,
Washington, DC 20426.
54. From the Commission's Home Page on the Internet, this
information is available on eLibrary. The full text of this document is
available on eLibrary in PDF and Microsoft Word format for viewing,
printing, and/or downloading. To access this document in eLibrary, type
the docket number excluding the last three digits of this document in
the docket number field.
55. User assistance is available for eLibrary and the Commission's
Web site during normal business hours from the Commission's Online
Support at 202-502-6652 (toll free at 1-866-208-3676) or email at
ferconlinesupport@ferc.gov, or the Public Reference Room at (202) 502-
8371, TTY (202) 502-8659. Email the Public Reference Room at
public.referenceroom@ferc.gov.
By direction of the Commission.
Kimberly D. Bose,
Secretary.
[FR Doc. 2012-26131 Filed 10-23-12; 8:45 am]
BILLING CODE 6717-01-P