Takes of Marine Mammals Incidental to Specified Activities; Taking Marine Mammals Incidental to an Exploration Drilling Program Near Camden Bay, Beaufort Sea, Alaska, 27284-27319 [2012-11084]

Agencies

• DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
• National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

[Federal Register Volume 77, Number 90 (Wednesday, May 9, 2012)]
[Notices]
[Pages 27284-27319]
From the Federal Register Online via the Government Printing Office [www.gpo.gov]
[FR Doc No: 2012-11084]



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Vol. 77

Wednesday,

No. 90

May 9, 2012

Part II





Department of Commerce





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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration





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Takes of Marine Mammals Incidental to Specified Activities; Taking 
Marine Mammals Incidental to an Exploration Drilling Program Near 
Camden Bay, Beaufort Sea, Alaska; Notice

Federal Register / Vol. 77 , No. 90 / Wednesday, May 9, 2012 / 
Notices

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DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

RIN 0648-XA804


Takes of Marine Mammals Incidental to Specified Activities; 
Taking Marine Mammals Incidental to an Exploration Drilling Program 
Near Camden Bay, Beaufort Sea, Alaska

AGENCY: National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS), National Oceanic and 
Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Commerce.

ACTION: Notice; issuance of an incidental harassment authorization.

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SUMMARY: In accordance with the Marine Mammal Protection Act (MMPA) 
regulations, notification is hereby given that NMFS has issued an 
Incidental Harassment Authorization (IHA) to Shell Offshore Inc. 
(Shell) to take marine mammals, by harassment, incidental to offshore 
exploration drilling on Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) leases in the 
Beaufort Sea, Alaska.

DATES: Effective July 1, 2012, through October 31, 2012.

ADDRESSES: A copy of the issued IHA, application with associated 
materials, and NMFS' Environmental Assessment (EA) and Finding of No 
Significant Impact may be obtained by writing to Tammy Adams, Acting 
Chief, Permits and Conservation Division, Office of Protected 
Resources, National Marine Fisheries Service, 1315 East-West Highway, 
Silver Spring, MD 20910, telephoning the contact listed below (see FOR 
FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT), or visiting the internet at: https://www.nmfs.noaa.gov/pr/permits/incidental.htm. Documents cited in this 
notice may also be viewed, by appointment, during regular business 
hours, at the aforementioned address.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Candace Nachman, Office of Protected 
Resources, NMFS, (301) 427-8401.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION:

Background

    Sections 101(a)(5)(A) and (D) of the MMPA (16 U.S.C. 1361 et seq.) 
direct the Secretary of Commerce to allow, upon request, the 
incidental, but not intentional, taking of small numbers of marine 
mammals by U.S. citizens who engage in a specified activity (other than 
commercial fishing) within a specified geographical region if certain 
findings are made and either regulations are issued or, if the taking 
is limited to harassment, a notice of a proposed authorization is 
provided to the public for review.
    Authorization for incidental takings shall be granted if NMFS finds 
that the taking will have a negligible impact on the species or 
stock(s), will not have an unmitigable adverse impact on the 
availability of the species or stock(s) for subsistence uses (where 
relevant), and if the permissible methods of taking and requirements 
pertaining to the mitigation, monitoring and reporting of such takings 
are set forth. NMFS has defined ``negligible impact'' in 50 CFR 216.103 
as ``* * * an impact resulting from the specified activity that cannot 
be reasonably expected to, and is not reasonably likely to, adversely 
affect the species or stock through effects on annual rates of 
recruitment or survival.''
    Section 101(a)(5)(D) of the MMPA established an expedited process 
by which citizens of the U.S. can apply for an authorization to 
incidentally take small numbers of marine mammals by harassment. 
Section 101(a)(5)(D) establishes a 45-day time limit for NMFS review of 
an application followed by a 30-day public notice and comment period on 
any proposed authorizations for the incidental harassment of marine 
mammals. Within 45 days of the close of the comment period, NMFS must 
either issue or deny the authorization.
    Except with respect to certain activities not pertinent here, the 
MMPA defines ``harassment'' as:

    Any act of pursuit, torment, or annoyance which (i) has the 
potential to injure a marine mammal or marine mammal stock in the 
wild [``Level A harassment'']; or (ii) has the potential to disturb 
a marine mammal or marine mammal stock in the wild by causing 
disruption of behavioral patterns, including, but not limited to, 
migration, breathing, nursing, breeding, feeding, or sheltering 
[``Level B harassment''].

Summary of Request

    NMFS received an application on May 10, 2011, from Shell for the 
taking, by harassment, of marine mammals incidental to offshore 
exploration drilling on OCS leases in the Beaufort Sea, Alaska. NMFS 
reviewed Shell's application and identified a number of issues 
requiring further clarification. After addressing comments from NMFS, 
Shell modified its application and submitted a revised application on 
September 2, 2011. NMFS carefully evaluated Shell's application, 
including their analyses, and deemed the application complete. The 
September 2, 2011, application was the one available for public comment 
(see ADDRESSES) and considered by NMFS for this IHA. NMFS published a 
Notice of Proposed IHA in the Federal Register on November 7, 2011 (76 
FR 68974). That notice contained in depth descriptions and analyses 
that are generally not repeated in this document. Only in cases where 
descriptions or analyses changed is that information updated here. The 
most notable changes include: (1) The description of the sound 
characteristics of the drillship Kulluk based on the installation of 
quieting technologies; (2) modifications to the acoustic and aerial 
monitoring programs presented in the marine mammal monitoring plan; (3) 
take estimates from exposure to sound from the Kulluk with the reduced 
sound isopleths based on the installation of quieting technologies; and 
(4) updated information regarding Shell's Oil Spill Response Plan 
(OSRP). These changes are described in greater detail in the applicable 
sections later in this document.
    Shell plans to drill two exploration wells at two drill sites in 
Camden Bay, Beaufort Sea, Alaska, during the 2012 Arctic open-water 
season (July through October). Impacts to marine mammals may occur from 
noise produced by the drillship, zero-offset vertical seismic profile 
(ZVSP) surveys, and supporting vessels (including icebreakers) and 
aircraft. Shell requested authorization to take nine marine mammal 
species by Level B harassment. However, narwhals (Monodon monoceros) 
are not expected to be found in the activity area. Therefore, NMFS has 
authorized take of eight marine mammal species, by Level B harassment, 
incidental to Shell's offshore exploration drilling program in Camden 
Bay. These species include: beluga whale (Delphinapterus leucas); 
bowhead whale (Balaena mysticetus); gray whale (Eschrichtius robustus); 
harbor porpoise (Phocoena phocoena); bearded seal (Erignathus 
barbatus); ringed seal (Phoca hispida); spotted seal (P. largha); and 
ribbon seal (Histriophoca fasciata).

Description of the Specified Activity and Specified Geographic Region

    Shell plans to conduct an offshore exploration drilling program on 
U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI), Bureau of Ocean Energy 
Management (BOEM, formerly the Minerals Management Service) Alaska OCS 
leases located north of Point Thomson near Camden Bay in the Beaufort 
Sea, Alaska, during the 2012 open-water season. During the 2012 
drilling program (July through October), Shell plans to complete two 
exploration wells at two drill sites, one well each on the Torpedo 
prospect (NR06-04 Flaxman Island lease block 6610, OCS-Y-1941 [Flaxman 
Island 6610--Torpedo ``H'' or ``J'' drill site]) and the Sivulliq 
prospect (NR06-04 Flaxman Island lease block 6658, OCS-

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Y 1805 [Flaxman Island 6658--Sivulliq ``N'' or ``G'' drill sites]). See 
Figure 1-1 in Shell's application for the lease block and drill site 
locations (see ADDRESSES). All drilling is planned to be vertical.
    The Notice of Proposed IHA (76 FR 68974, November 7, 2011) 
contained a full description of Shell's planned operations. That notice 
describes the equipment to be used for the different operational 
activities, the timeframe of activities, and the sound characteristics 
of the associated equipment. Except to clarify changes to the 
information contained in the proposed IHA notice, the information is 
not repeated here; therefore, please refer to the proposed IHA for the 
full description of the specified activity and specified geographic 
region.

Drilling Vessels

    The Notice of Proposed IHA (76 FR 68974, November 7, 2011) noted 
that Shell plans to use one of two drilling vessels for its 2012 Camden 
Bay exploratory drilling program: the Kulluk (owned by Shell and 
operated by Noble Drilling [Noble]); or the Discoverer (owned and 
operated by Noble). Only one of these drilling vessels would be used 
for the Camden Bay program, not both. Information on each vessel can be 
found in Attachment A of Shell's IHA application (see ADDRESSES). Since 
publication of that notice, Shell has continued to refine the details 
of its program. Shell intends for the Kulluk to be the primary choice 
of drillship to be used for the Camden Bay program. The Discoverer is 
Shell's second choice for use as the drillship and will only be used 
for the 2012 Camden Bay program if the primary drillship (i.e., the 
Kulluk) is unavailable.

Exploratory Drilling Program Sound Characteristics

    Potential impacts to marine mammals could occur from the noise 
produced by the drillship and its support vessels (including the 
icebreakers), aircraft, and the airgun array during ZVSP surveys. The 
drillship produces continuous noise into the marine environment. NMFS 
currently uses a threshold of 120 dB re 1 [micro]Pa (rms) for the onset 
of Level B harassment from continuous sound sources. This 120 dB 
threshold is also applicable for the icebreakers when actively managing 
or breaking ice. The airgun array to be used by Shell for the ZVSP 
surveys produces pulsed noise into the marine environment. NMFS 
currently uses a threshold of 160 dB re 1 [micro]Pa (rms) for the onset 
of Level B harassment from pulsed sound sources.
    The Notice of Proposed IHA (76 FR 68974, November 7, 2011) contains 
information regarding sound characteristics of the Kulluk and 
Discoverer, other vessels, aircraft, and airguns. That information is 
not repeated here. However, Shell conducted a retrofit of the Kulluk 
following publication of the Notice of Proposed IHA. The purpose of the 
retrofit is to reduce transmission of noise from the vessel into the 
water. A brief description of the retrofit is provided here.
    Two primary noise-reducing technologies have been installed on the 
Kulluk in its main engine room that houses the new engine-driven 
generators (gensets). These technologies are surface acoustic 
insulation and resilient engine mounts upon which the new gensets were 
recently installed. Both technologies reduce the amount of mechanical 
vibrations transmitted from the water. The surface insulation is 
expected to reduce transmission of airborne sound energy into the deck 
and bulkheads and subsequently through the vessel hull into the water. 
The resilient engine mounts provide vibrational isolation of the genset 
engines from the deck to reduce mechanical vibrations that would 
otherwise be conducted into the deck and subsequently through the 
vessel structure and hull into the water as sound. The use of modern 
generators is itself expected to result in some vibration reduction.
    Because measurements of the drilling vessel's acoustic source 
levels have not yet been made with quieting technologies installed, the 
actual sound emission reductions cannot yet be quantified with 
certainty. Once on location in Camden Bay, Shell plans to take 
measurements of the drillship to quantify the absolute sound levels 
produced by drilling and to monitor their variations with time, 
distance, and direction from the drilling vessel. However, Shell 
estimated the reductions based on applications of similar technologies 
applied elsewhere. A comprehensive review of noise reducing 
technologies provides ranges of achieved reductions by several 
different technologies (Spence et al., 2007; see Table 1 here). One 
should not assume that the reductions are additive because one 
transmission pathway could dominate, and improvement of the other 
pathway would have little benefit. NMFS acoustic experts reviewed the 
information provided by Shell regarding the quieting technologies and 
additional sources and determined that a 5 dB reduction of modeled 
noise source is a reasonable estimate of the effectiveness of the 
quieting techniques being implemented. Therefore, for purposes of 
calculating potential takes by harassment from the Kulluk, NMFS has 
assumed a 5 dB reduction, which alters the 120-dB isopleth by a factor 
of 1.6. Additional information on sound radii and take estimates are 
provided later in this document.
[GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] TN09MY12.003


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Comments and Responses

    A Notice of Proposed IHA published in the Federal Register on 
November 7, 2011 (76 FR 68974) for public comment. During the 30-day 
public comment period, NMFS received nine comment letters from the 
following: the Alaska Eskimo Whaling Commission (AEWC); Inupiat 
Community of the Arctic Slope (ICAS); the Marine Mammal Commission 
(MMC); State of Alaska Department of Natural Resources; Consumer Energy 
Alliance; Resource Development Council; the North Slope Borough (NSB); 
Shell; and Alaska Wilderness League (AWL), Audubon Alaska, Center for 
Biological Diversity, Defenders of Wildlife, Earthjustice, Natural 
Resources Defense Council, Northern Alaska Environmental Center, 
Oceana, Pacific Environment, Resisting Environmental Destruction on 
Indigenous Lands, Sierra Club, the Wilderness Society, and World 
Wildlife Fund (collectively ``AWL''), along with an attached letter 
from David E. Bain, Ph.D.
    AWL submitted several journal articles and documents as attachments 
to their comment letter. NMFS acknowledges receipt of these articles 
and documents but does not intend to address each one specifically in 
the responses to comments. All of the public comment letters received 
on the Notice of Proposed IHA (76 FR 68974, November 7, 2011) are 
available on the internet at: https://www.nmfs.noaa.gov/pr/permits/incidental.htm. Following is a summary of the public comments and NMFS' 
responses.

General Comments

    Comment 1: Shell notes that NMFS stated in the Notice of Proposed 
IHA (76 FR 68975, November 7, 2011) that either drillship will be 
``attended by 11 vessels.'' Shell states that the actual number of 
support vessels may vary due to operational needs and therefore did not 
note 11 as an absolute number in the IHA application.
    Response: NMFS acknowledges this comment and understands that there 
might be slight variation in the number of vessels. However, this does 
not change the analysis provided in the Notice of Proposed IHA (76 FR 
68975, November 7, 2011).
    Comment 2: The State of Alaska Department of Natural Resources, 
Consumer Energy Alliance, and Resource Development Council all urge 
NMFS to finalize Shell's IHA since NMFS has issued the proposed IHA.
    Response: After careful evaluation of all comments and the data and 
information available regarding potential impacts to marine mammals and 
their habitat and to the availability of marine mammals for subsistence 
uses, NMFS has issued the final authorization to Shell to take marine 
mammals incidental to conducting an exploration drilling program in 
Camden Bay during the 2012 Arctic open-water season.
    Comment 3: ICAS incorporates the comments made by the AEWC into its 
letter by reference and urges NMFS to address the concerns of AEWC and 
its whaling captains.
    Response: All comments made by the AEWC are addressed in this 
document.
    Comment 4: The MMC and AWL question the source levels and 
harassment zones for the two drillships. If the source levels for the 
Kulluk and Discoverer are nearly identical, then why is there a four-
fold difference in the size of the corrected harassment zones for the 
two drilling vessels?
    Response: Differences in sound propagation from the two rigs are 
real and are caused by differences in the design of the two vessels. 
While the broadband source levels for the Discoverer and Kulluk may be 
similar, their spectral properties differ considerably. Acoustic 
modeling considers the source levels in 1/3-octave frequency bands. 
Figures 1 and 2 show the band levels for both drillships during 
drilling. Of key importance are the significantly lower levels of the 
Discoverer in the 50 to 500 Hz bands that propagate well in the 
relatively shallow waters of these drilling operations. While the 
Discoverer apparently has higher band levels below 50 Hz, this energy 
is more rapidly attenuated than higher frequency sound energy. This 
characteristic of sound propagation in shallow waters leads to 
predominantly mid-frequency sounds (50-500 Hz) dominating the acoustic 
field at distance from the drillships. A further consideration is that 
the Kulluk source levels are known to include contributions from 
support vessels, and much of the mid-high frequency band energy in its 
source levels may not originate entirely from the drillship itself, as 
acknowledged by Greene (1987). The Discoverer source level measurements 
by Austin and Warner (2010) were made at closer distances and do not 
include significant contributions from other vessels. The Kulluk's 
modeled sound footprint may be an overestimate as a result, but we 
cannot quantify by how much since the relative contribution of vessel 
noise to its source level measurements is unknown. The source level for 
the Discoverer was measured, though not in the Beaufort Sea, and those 
measurements were used to model propagation in the Beaufort Sea 
environment. Regardless of which drill rig is used by Shell in the 
Beaufort Sea in 2012, the IHA requires Shell to conduct sound source 
verification (SSV) and characterization tests on all equipment used.

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[GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] TN09MY12.004

[GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] TN09MY12.005

    Comment 5: The NSB stated in their letter that comments made 
previously on Shell's IHA applications for seismic and drilling are 
still applicable and are incorporated by reference into their letter 
dated December 7, 2011.
    Response: NMFS has responded to comments on Shell's seismic IHA 
requests in previous Federal Register notices. Those responses are 
incorporated into this document by reference (e.g., 73 FR 66106, 
November 6, 2008; 74 FR 55368, October 27, 2009; 75 FR 49710, August 
13, 2010). The NSB submitted letters regarding Shell's proposed Camden 
Bay exploration drilling programs for the years 2007, 2008, and 2010. 
NMFS has only provided responses to comments contained in the 2007, 
2008, and 2010 letters that are different from comments in the NSB's 
2011 letter on this IHA. Additionally, some of the comments in those 
three earlier letters are no longer relevant to Shell's program as 
currently proposed in this document.

MMPA Statutory Concerns

    Comment 6: The AEWC, NSB, AWL, and MMC state that the requested 
take does not meet the MMPA standard of ``small numbers'' and that the 
proposed IHA does not demonstrate that Shell's activities will have 
only a negligible impact on the species or stock. The NSB states that 
NMFS fails to distinguish between these two standards. AWL states that 
the proposed IHA does not include a specific ``small numbers'' finding 
for bowhead whales. Additionally, AEWC, MMC, and AWL ask NMFS to 
clarify how the statutory standard of ``least practicable impact'' is 
being met if the Kulluk is permitted for use instead of the Discoverer, 
which will have a smaller zone of impact.
    Response: First, NMFS is not required to publish a preliminary 
finding regarding ``small numbers'' at the proposed IHA stage. The MMPA 
implementing regulations indicate that NMFS will publish any 
preliminary finding of ``negligible impact'' or ``no unmitigable 
adverse impact'' for public comment along with the proposed IHA if 
preliminary findings have been made at that time. 50 CFR 216.104(c). In 
this instance, at the proposed IHA stage

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NMFS was still evaluating the available information and believed it 
would be beneficial to review information and comments submitted by the 
public before making determinations regarding whether Shell's proposed 
action will have a negligible impact on the affected species or stocks 
of marine mammals and no unmitigable adverse impact on the availability 
of such species or stocks for taking for subsistence uses. There is no 
requirement to include a finding of ``small numbers'' as part of a 
proposed IHA. Based on our review, we have made the requisite findings 
of small numbers, negligible impact, and no unmitigable adverse impact 
on the availability of the taking of marine mammals for subsistence 
uses.
    NMFS is required to authorize the take of ``small numbers'' of a 
species or stock if the taking by harassment will have a negligible 
impact on the affected species or stocks and will not have an 
unmitigable adverse impact on the availability of such species or stock 
for taking for subsistence purposes. See 16 U.S.C. 1371(a)(5)(D). In 
determining whether to authorize ``small numbers'' of a species or 
stock, NMFS determines whether the taking will be small relative to the 
estimated population size and relevant to the behavior, physiology, and 
life history of the species or stock.
    With the exception of bowhead whales, less than 1% of each species 
stock or population would be taken by harassment, regardless of which 
drillship is utilized by Shell. With respect to the type of take, NMFS 
is authorizing only Level B behavioral harassment of bowhead whales and 
does not anticipate any injury or mortality. The Bering-Chukchi-
Beaufort (BCB) stock of bowhead whales is estimated at approximately 
15,232 individuals based on a 2001 population of 10,545 (Zeh and Punt, 
2005) and a continued annual growth rate of 3.4% (Allen and Angliss, 
2011). Although modeling results indicate that up to 23% of the BCB 
bowhead whale population (which is lower than the estimate provided in 
the Notice of Proposed IHA based on the retrofit of the Kulluk) could 
potentially be exposed to received sound levels >=120 dB re 1 [mu]Pa, 
NMFS is confident that takes resulting from Shell's activities will 
constitute only a ``small number'' of bowheads for the following 
reasons:
    (1) The modeling results do not mean that 23% of the BCB bowhead 
whale population will actually be ``taken'' by Level B behavioral 
harassment. Bowheads may engage in avoidance behavior preventing their 
exposure to these levels of sound, and, even if exposed, may not 
exhibit a behavioral reaction.
    (2) In reviewing information submitted by Shell regarding the 
modeling of the number of bowheads potentially affected, NMFS 
considered the fact that Shell's estimates included an inflation factor 
of the sound radii, meaning that the actual number of animals exposed 
to sound levels >=120 dB will almost certainly be lower than the 
projections described here; and
    (3) With the exception of the subsistence mitigation measure of 
shutting down during the Nuiqsut and Kaktovik fall bowhead whale hunts, 
the modeling results do not take into account the implementation of 
mitigation measures, which will lower the number of animals taken even 
further.
    Finally, the MMPA requires that NMFS prescribe mitigation measures 
to ensure the least practicable impact on marine mammal species or 
stocks. NMFS' evaluation of mitigation measures includes consideration 
of the following factors in relation to one another: (1) The manner in 
which, and the degree to which, the successful implementation of the 
measure is expected to minimize adverse impacts to marine mammals; (2) 
the proven or likely efficacy of the specific measure to minimize 
adverse impacts as planned; and (3) the practicability of the measure 
for applicant implementation.
    In this instance, NMFS is authorizing only Level B behavioral 
harassment and has concluded the take from the specified activity will 
have a negligible impact on marine mammals, regardless of whether the 
Kulluk or the Discoverer is used. Even if the determination of which 
drill rig to use could properly be characterized as a ``mitigation 
measure,'' Shell has submitted information indicating that a 
requirement to use the Discoverer in the Beaufort during its 2012 
drilling program would not constitute a practicable mitigation measure.
    Determining which drill rig to use is based upon a complex 
combination of technical factors. One of the most important factors is 
that of being the optimum vessel to operate under the specific 
conditions that exist at the specific location. Shell indicates that 
the company specifically acquired the Kulluk for nearshore operations 
in the Beaufort Sea, and since that time has invested hundreds of 
millions of dollars in upgrading and maintaining the vessel. The vessel 
has a proven track record, as it has been used successfully for such 
work in both the Alaskan and Canadian Beaufort Sea nearshore waters, 
including, most recently, five wells in or in the immediate vicinity of 
Camden Bay. Because the Kulluk is the rig most capable of operating 
under ice conditions, it is the most appropriate rig to operate in the 
Beaufort Sea where ice conditions may be subject to quick change. 
Though Shell does not intend to operate under conditions of ice 
closure, use of the Kulluk in the Beaufort Sea provides the greatest 
margin of safety. It is not practicable for Shell to forfeit an 
investment of hundreds of millions of dollars in order to provide only 
marginal reductions to impacts that NMFS has already determined will be 
negligible.
    Comment 7: The AEWC and AWL state that NMFS cannot make a 
negligible impact determination without considering other activities 
planned for this year and future years in the U.S. Arctic Ocean and 
Russian and Canadian waters. AWL states that NMFS should also evaluate 
the potential impacts of future activities in both oceans and the 
acknowledged uncertainty regarding the effects of noise in the marine 
environment in the context of subsistence hunting.
    Response: NMFS considered the cumulative effects analysis contained 
in NMFS' Draft Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) on the ``Effects of 
Oil and Gas Activities in the Arctic Ocean'' (NMFS, 2011), NMFS' EA for 
the ``Issuance of Incidental Harassment Authorizations for the Take of 
Marine Mammals by Harassment Incidental to Conducting Exploratory 
Drilling Programs in the U.S. Beaufort and Chukchi Seas,'' and other 
relevant data to inform its MMPA determination here. Pursuant to NEPA, 
those documents contained a cumulative impacts assessment, as well as 
an assessment of the impacts of the proposed exploratory drilling 
program on marine mammals and other protected resources.
    Section 101(a)(5)(D) of the MMPA and its implementing regulations 
require NMFS to consider a request for the taking of marine mammals 
incidental to a specified activity within a specified geographical 
region and, assuming certain findings can be made, to authorize the 
taking of small numbers of marine mammals while engaged in that 
activity. NMFS has defined ``specified activity'' in 50 CFR 216.103 as 
``any activity, other than commercial fishing, that takes place in a 
specified geographical region and potentially involves the taking of 
small numbers of marine mammals.'' When making a negligible impact 
determination, NMFS considers the total impact during each 1-year 
period resulting from the specified activity only and supports its 
determination by relying on factors such

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as: (1) The number of anticipated mortalities from the activity; (2) 
the number and nature of anticipated injuries from the activity; (3) 
the number, nature, intensity, and duration of Level B harassment 
resulting from the activity; (4) the context in which the takes occur; 
(5) the status of the species or stock; (6) environmental features that 
may significantly increase the potential severity of impacts from the 
proposed action; (7) effects on habitat that could affect rates of 
recruitment or survival; and (8) how the mitigation measures are 
expected to reduce the number or severity of takes or the impacts to 
habitat. When making its finding that there will be no unmitigable 
adverse impact on the availability of the affected species or stock for 
taking for subsistence uses, NMFS analyzes the measures contained in 
the applicant's Plan of Cooperation (POC). Additionally, Shell signed 
the 2012 Conflict Avoidance Agreement (CAA) with the AEWC. NMFS 
included all necessary measures from both documents in the IHA to 
ensure no unmitigable adverse impacts to subsistence.
    NMFS considered the impacts analyses (i.e., direct, indirect, and 
cumulative) contained in the previously mentioned EIS and EA in 
reaching its conclusion that any marine mammals exposed to the sounds 
produced by the drillship, ice management/icebreaking vessels, support 
vessels and aircraft, and airguns would be disturbed for only a short 
period of time and would not be harmed or killed. Furthermore, the 
required mitigation and monitoring measures are expected to reduce the 
likelihood or severity of any impacts to marine mammals or their 
habitats over the course of the activities.
    Moreover, NMFS gave careful consideration to a number of other 
issues and sources of information. In particular, NMFS relied upon a 
number of scientific reports, including the 2010 U.S. Alaska Marine 
Mammal Stock Assessment Reports (SARs) to support its findings. The 
SARs contain a description of each marine mammal stock, its geographic 
range, a minimum population estimate, current population trends, 
current and maximum net productivity rates, optimum sustainable 
population levels and allowable removal levels, and estimates of annual 
human-caused mortality and serious injury through interactions with 
commercial fisheries and subsistence harvest data. NMFS also used data 
from the annual and final Bowhead Whale Aerial Survey Program (BWASP) 
reports.
    After careful consideration of the proposed activities, the context 
in which Shell's proposed activities would occur, the best available 
scientific information, and all effects analyses (including cumulative 
effects), NMFS has determined that the specified activities: (1) Would 
not result in more than the behavioral harassment (i.e., Level B 
harassment) of small numbers of marine mammal species or stocks; (2) 
taking by harassment would not result in more than a negligible impact 
on affected species or stocks; and (3) taking by harassment would not 
have an unmitigable adverse impact on the availability of such species 
or stocks for taking for subsistence uses. Therefore NMFS has decided 
to issue an IHA to Shell to take, by no more than Level B harassment, 
small numbers of marine mammals incidental to its Camden Bay 
exploratory drilling program.
    Comment 8: The MMC recommends that NMFS require Shell to evaluate 
the source levels of the available drilling rigs at the proposed 
drilling locations, recalculate the 120-dB re 1 [micro]Pa harassment 
zones and estimated takes as appropriate, and use the rig best suited 
for the proposed drilling locations based, in part, on consideration of 
the size of the harassment zones and the requirements of the MMPA to 
reduce impacts of the proposed activity to the least practicable level.
    Response: As conditioned in the IHA, Shell is required to conduct 
SSV and characterization of the equipment to be used, including the 
drilling rig. Shell is required to report received levels down to 120 
dB re 1 [micro]Pa. Upon completion of those tests, Shell will then use 
the new sound radii for estimating take throughout the season. While 
new take estimates will not be calculated to replace those in the 
application, Shell will use the new radii for reporting estimated take 
levels in the 90-day report. See the response to Comment 6 regarding 
use of the different drilling rigs in Camden Bay.
    Comment 9: The NSB and AWL state that NMFS must consider whether 
the increase in vessel presence and vessel noise around the drill sites 
and during transit across the Arctic have the potential to disturb 
marine mammals.
    Response: Shell's application and NMFS' Notice of Proposed IHA (76 
FR 68974, November 7, 2011) outline all of the vessels intended for use 
to support the exploratory drilling program. While the application and 
proposed IHA do not include source levels or take estimates for those 
vessels, their presence is considered and accounted for in several of 
the mitigation measures. For example, vessel speed and maneuvering 
conditions apply to all vessels, not just the drill ship and 
icebreakers. Therefore, while NMFS contemplated the use of all vessels 
during activities and has included mitigation measures during operation 
of these vessels to reduce potentially disturbing marine mammals in the 
vicinity, NMFS does not consider the transit or operation of these 
vessels to rise to a level that would result in take.
    Comment 10: The NSB states that there is a general lack of 
information regarding behavior of animals that have previously been 
exposed to industrial sounds and that no studies have looked at long-
term impacts on survival or reproduction. With limited information 
available, NMFS cannot make a rational negligible impact finding. The 
NSB (in its 2008 letter) and AWL state that a lack of adequate 
information precludes NMFS from complying with the MMPA standards. AWL 
states that NMFS should defer all oil and gas-related IHAs while the 
necessary information is gathered.
    Response: As required by the MMPA implementing regulations at 50 
CFR 216.102(a), NMFS has used the best scientific information available 
in assessing potential impacts and whether the activity will have no 
more than a negligible impact on the affected marine mammal species or 
stock (please see response to Comment 7). However, while NMFS agrees 
that there may be some uncertainty regarding behavior of animals that 
have been previously exposed to industrial sounds and how that may 
impact survival and reproduction, the best available information 
supports our findings.
    Industrial activities have been occurring (at varying rates) in the 
U.S. Arctic Ocean for decades, and the available measurable indicators 
do not suggest that these activities are having long-term impacts. For 
example, bowhead whales continued to increase in abundance during 
periods of intense seismic activity in the Chukchi Sea in the 1980s 
(Raftery et al., 1995; Angliss and Outlaw, 2007), even without 
implementation of current mitigation requirements. Additionally, 
industry has been collecting data and conducting monitoring in the 
region for many years and will continue to do so under this IHA. 
Therefore, NMFS has determined that a negligible impact finding is 
rational.
    Comment 11: AWL and the NSB (in its 2008 letter) note that Shell's 
activities have the potential to result in serious injury. AWL also 
states that in the proposed IHA, NMFS conflated two different 
regulatory provisions governing the issuance of IHAs when it

[[Page 27290]]

stated that for there to be the potential for serious injury or 
mortality an activity must be ``reasonably expected or likely'' to 
result in serious injury or mortality. AWL's letter states: ``There is 
no indication that NMFS considered the dire consequences of a spill 
when determining whether the `potential' for serious harm exists * * * 
NMFS must carefully consider these risks and apply the appropriate MMPA 
standard.''
    Response: As analyzed in the proposed IHA, NMFS has determined that 
Shell's activities are not likely to result in injury, serious injury, 
or mortality. The activities for which Shell is authorized to take 
marine mammals would most likely result in behavioral harassment. The 
mitigation and monitoring measures analyzed in the proposed IHA and 
required in the authorization are designed to ensure the least 
practicable impact on marine mammals and their habitat and the 
availability of marine mammals for subsistence uses.
    AWL cites to NMFS' definition of ``negligible impact'' to argue 
that the agency has improperly conflated separate regulatory standards. 
``Negligible impact is an impact resulting from the specified activity 
that cannot be reasonably expected to, and is not reasonably likely to, 
adversely affect the species or stock through effects on annual rates 
of recruitment or survival'' (50 CFR 216.103).
    NMFS believes its decision-making should be informed by whether 
impacts are actually reasonably likely to occur. This principle is 
recognized in multiple contexts, and this does not represent the 
conflation of separate regulatory standards (in this instance, 
``negligible impact'' and ``potential to result in serious injury or 
mortality''). It is well recognized in the cases interpreting NEPA. For 
example see Ground Zero Ctr. for Non-Violent Action v. United States 
Dept of the Navy, 383 F.3d 1082, 1090-91 (9th Cir. 2004) (concluding 
that where Navy had concluded that risk was extremely remote, ``such 
remote possibilities do not in law require environmental evaluation.'') 
As explained later in this document, this interpretation reflects NMFS' 
longstanding practice of issuing IHAs in cases where the agency found 
that the potential for serious injury or mortality was ``highly 
unlikely'' (See 73 FR 40512, 40514, July 15, 2008; 73 FR 45969, 45971, 
August 7, 2008; 73 FR 46774, 46778, August 11, 2008; 73 FR 66106, 
66109, November 6, 2008; 74 FR 55368, 55371, October 27, 2009). 
Interpreting ``potential'' to include impacts with any probability of 
occurring (i.e., speculative or extremely low probability events) would 
be administratively unworkable and inconsistent with Congressional 
intent. NMFS' proposed IHA considered the risks of an oil spill in its 
analysis and used that analysis to make the final determinations here.
    Comment 12: AWL states that if Shell is unable to commence drilling 
in the Chukchi Sea in 2012 and therefore can use the Discoverer in the 
Beaufort Sea, for purposes of this MMPA review, NMFS should assume that 
the Kulluk is used in the Beaufort Sea in order to capture the full 
extent of the potential effects.
    Response: In conducting this MMPA review, NMFS assumed that either 
vessel could be used and presented a range of estimated takes and 
potential impacts. Additionally, in the EA, NMFS assumed use of the 
Discoverer in the Chukchi Sea and the Kulluk in the Beaufort Sea in 
order to assess the combined higher level of potential takes.

Marine Mammal Impact Concerns

    Comment 13: AWL states that NMFS' uniform marine mammal harassment 
thresholds do not consider documented reactions of specific species in 
the Arctic to much lower received levels. The letter notes reactions of 
bowhead and beluga whales to certain activities below 160 dB. The 
letter also states: ``At a minimum, the proposed IHA cannot apply 
thresholds that fail to accurately capture potential marine mammal 
harassment, as required by the standards imposed by the MMPA.''
    Response: For continuous sounds, such as those produced by drilling 
operations and during icebreaking activities, NMFS uses a received 
level of 120-dB (rms) to indicate the onset of Level B harassment. For 
impulsive sounds, such as those produced by the airgun array during the 
ZVSP surveys, NMFS uses a received level of 160-dB (rms) to indicate 
the onset of Level B harassment. Therefore, while a level of 160-dB was 
used to estimate take for a portion of the operations that will only 
occur for a total of 10-28 hours during the entire 4-month open-water 
season, a threshold of 120-dB was used to estimate potential takes for 
all species from the drilling operations and ice management/icebreaking 
activities.
    While some published articles indicate that certain marine mammal 
species may avoid seismic airguns (an impulsive sound source) at levels 
below 160 dB, NMFS does not consider that these responses rise to the 
level of a take, as defined in the MMPA. While studies, such as Miller 
et al. (1999), have indicated that some bowhead whales may have started 
to deflect from their migratory path 21.7 mi (35 km) from the seismic 
source vessel, it should be pointed out that these minor course changes 
are during migration and have not been seen at other times of the year 
and during other activities. To show the contextual nature of this 
minor behavioral modification, recent monitoring studies of Canadian 
seismic operations indicate that feeding, non-migratory bowhead whales 
do not move away from a noise source at a sound pressure level (SPL) of 
160 dB. Therefore, while bowheads may avoid an area of 12.4 mi (20 km) 
around a noise source, when that determination requires a post-survey 
computer analysis to find that bowheads have made a 1 or 2 degree 
course change, NMFS does not consider that deviation to rise to a level 
of a ``take,'' as the change in bearing is due to animals sensing the 
noise and avoiding passage through the ensonified area during their 
migration and should not be considered as being displaced from their 
habitat. NMFS therefore continues to estimate ``takings'' under the 
MMPA from impulse noises, such as seismic, as being at a distance of 
160 dB (re 1 [mu]Pa).
    Although it is possible that marine mammals could react to any 
sound levels detectable above the ambient noise level within the 
animals' respective frequency response range, this does not mean that 
such a reaction would be considered a take. According to experts on 
marine mammal behavior, whether a particular stressor could potentially 
disrupt the migration, breathing, nursing, breeding, feeding, or 
sheltering, etc., of a marine mammal, i.e., whether it would result in 
a take, is complex and context specific, and it depends on several 
variables in addition to the received level of the sound by the 
animals. These additional variables include: Other source 
characteristics (such as frequency range, duty cycle, continuous vs. 
impulse vs. intermittent sounds, duration, moving vs. stationary 
sources, etc.); specific species, populations, and/or stocks; prior 
experience of the animals (naive vs. previously exposed); habituation 
or sensitization of the sound by the animals; and behavior context 
(whether the animal perceives the sound as predatory or simply 
annoyance), etc. (Southall et al. 2007). Therefore, although using a 
uniform SPL of 160-dB for the onset of behavioral harassment for 
impulse noises may not capture all of the nuances of different marine 
mammal reactions to sound, it is an appropriate metric to guide our 
evaluation of anthropogenic noise

[[Page 27291]]

impacts on marine mammals. Therefore, NMFS will continue to use the 
160-dB threshold for determining the level of take of marine mammals by 
Level B harassment for impulse noise (such as from airguns). However, 
as mentioned earlier, NMFS used the lower threshold of 120-dB to 
estimate potential Level B harassment takes of marine mammals from the 
continuous sounds of the drillship and ice management/icebreaking 
vessels.
    Comment 14: AWL and Dr. Bain indicate that a large-scale disruption 
to bowhead whales feeding near Camden Bay would exceed the negligible 
impact standard of the MMPA. Additionally, an assumption that 
displacement to another part of the range is harmless does not have 
sound basis. Dr. Bain also states that excluding whales from feeding 
areas effectively reduces the carrying capacity, which in turn reduces 
the rate of population increase and is equivalent to removing 
individuals from the population.
    Response: Recent articles and reports have noted bowhead whales 
feeding in several areas of the U.S. Beaufort Sea. The Barrow area is 
commonly used as a feeding area during spring and fall, with a higher 
proportion of photographed individuals displaying evidence of feeding 
in fall rather than spring (Mocklin, 2009). A bowhead whale feeding 
``hotspot'' (Okkonen et al., 2011) commonly forms on the western 
Beaufort Sea shelf off Point Barrow in late summer and fall. Favorable 
conditions concentrate euphausiids and copepods, and bowhead whales 
congregate to exploit the dense prey (Ashjian et al., 2010, Moore et 
al., 2010; Okkonen et al., 2011). Surveys have also noted bowhead 
whales feeding in the Camden Bay area during the fall (Koski and 
Miller, 2009; Quakenbush et al., 2010). As noted by AWL's and Dr. 
Bain's letters, displacement from feeding grounds with high prey 
density to ones with low prey density would reduce food intake. 
However, there is nothing to indicate the prey densities are lower off 
Point Barrow than in Camden Bay.
    The 2006-2008 BWASP Final Report (Clarke et al., 2011a) and the 
2009 BWASP Final Report (Clarke et al., 2011b) note sightings of 
feeding bowhead whales in the Beaufort Sea during the fall season. 
During that 4 year period, the largest groups of feeding whales were 
sighted between Smith Bay and Point Barrow (hundreds of miles to the 
west of Camden Bay), and none were sighted feeding in Camden Bay 
(Clarke et al., 2011a, b). In 2007, a small group of whales were seen 
feeding off of Kaktovik, which is just to the east of Camden Bay 
(Clarke et al., 2011a). Clarke and Ferguson (undated) examined the raw 
BWASP data from the years 2000-2009. They noted that feeding behavior 
was noted more often in September than October and that while bowheads 
were observed feeding throughout the study area (which includes the 
entire U.S. Beaufort Sea), sightings were less frequent in the central 
Alaskan Beaufort than they were east of Kaktovik and west of Smith Bay. 
Additionally, Clarke and Ferguson (undated) and Clarke et al. (2011b) 
refer to information from Ashjian et al. (2010), which describes the 
importance of wind-driven currents that produce favorable feeding 
conditions for bowhead whales in the area between Smith Bay and Point 
Barrow. Increased winds in that area may be increasing the incidence of 
upwelling, which in turn may be the reason for increased sightings of 
feeding bowheads in the area. Clarke and Ferguson (undated) also note 
that the incidence of feeding bowheads in the eastern Alaskan Beaufort 
Sea has decreased since the early 1980s. Therefore, NMFS' statement 
about sufficient feeding grounds being available outside of Camden Bay 
is based on recent data.
    Moreover, while some whales may avoid Camden Bay because of the 
increased sound levels while operations are ongoing, there has also 
been evidence that some bowheads continued feeding in close proximity 
to seismic sources (e.g., Richardson, 2004). The sounds produced by the 
drillship are of lower intensity than those produced by seismic 
airguns. Therefore, if animals remain in ensonified areas to feed, 
their feeding opportunity would not be missed, and they would be in 
areas where the sound levels are not high enough to cause injury (as 
discussed in greater detail later in this document).
    Lastly, Shell will cease operations in Camden Bay on August 25 and 
will not resume until the close of the fall bowhead whale hunts 
conducted by the communities of Kaktovik and Nuiqsut. Those hunts 
typically end in mid-September but could remain open until as late as 
the end of September. Therefore, early migrating whales will be 
afforded the opportunity to feed in Camden Bay without any operations 
going on in the vicinity. Based on this information and the proposed 
shutdown, NMFS does not anticipate that whales will be excluded from 
feeding opportunities in Camden Bay in numbers sufficient to reduce 
carrying capacity or the rate of population increase.
    Comment 15: AWL states that the proposed IHA fails to adequately 
address impacts to bowhead whale cow/calf pairs during the spring and 
fall migrations.
    Response: NMFS discussed potential impacts to bowhead whales, 
including cow/calf pairs in the Notice of Proposed IHA (76 FR 68974, 
November 7, 2011). In the section that discussed potential impacts to 
marine mammals from the specified activity, NMFS described data from 
studies that included observations and reactions (or lack thereof) of 
cow/calf pairs to different anthropogenic activities. Additionally, 
NMFS included discussion of cow/calf pairs in the negligible impact 
analysis section of that document. Mitigation measures are required in 
the IHA during vessel transits (e.g., speed restrictions, avoiding 
multiple changes in direction when within 300 yards [274 m] of whales) 
through the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas as the vessels mobilize to Camden 
Bay. These measures will ensure that potential impacts are reduced to 
the lowest level practicable. Moreover, Shell will not enter the 
Chukchi Sea prior to July 1, after the conclusion of the spring bowhead 
whale migration.
    Comment 16: AWL states that NMFS must consider whether Shell's ice 
management efforts have the potential to seriously injure or kill 
ringed seals resting on pack ice.
    Response: NMFS considered the potential impacts of Shell's ice 
management efforts to ringed seals resting on pack ice in the Notice of 
Proposed IHA (76 FR 68974, November 7, 2011) in the section regarding 
anticipated effects on marine mammal habitat. AWL also references the 
MMS 2008 Draft EIS for the Beaufort Sea and Chukchi Sea Planning Areas 
Oil and Gas Lease Sales 209, 212, 217, and 221 (MMS, 2008), which 
includes a reference to Reeves (1998). Reeves (1998) noted that some 
ringed seals have been killed by icebreakers moving through fast-ice 
breeding areas. In the proposed IHA analysis, NMFS considered this 
information and noted that since Shell's use of the icebreakers would 
occur outside of the ringed seal breeding and pupping seasons in the 
Beaufort Sea, serious injury or mortality from use of the icebreakers 
would not occur.
    Limited ice breaking might be needed to assist the fleet in 
accessing/exiting the project area if large amounts of ice pose a 
navigational hazard. Ice seals have variable responses to ice 
management activity. Alliston (1980, 1981) reported icebreaking 
activities did not adversely affect ringed seal abundance in the 
Northwest Territories and Labrador. Brueggeman et al. (1992)

[[Page 27292]]

reported ringed seals and bearded seals diving into the water when an 
icebreaker was 0.58 mi (0.93 km) away. However, Kanik et al. (1980) 
reported that ringed seals remained on sea ice when an icebreaker was 
0.62-1.24 mi (1-2 km) away.
    The drill site is expected to be mostly ice-free during July, 
August, and September, and the need for ice management should be 
infrequent. The presence of an icebreaker is primarily a safety 
precaution to protect the drill ship from damage. Ice seals could be on 
isolated floes that may need to be managed for safety. Any ice seals on 
floes approaching the drill ship may be disturbed by ice management 
activities. Ringed seals on an ice floe are anticipated to enter the 
water before the icebreaker contacts the ice, remain in the water as 
the ice moves past the drill ship, and could reoccupy ice after it has 
moved safely past the drill ship. As was discussed in the proposed IHA, 
NMFS determined that this activity and these reactions would result in 
Level B harassment. NMFS did not determine that there was a potential 
for serious injury or morality to occur from Shell's ice management 
efforts.
    Comment 17: AWL states that NMFS should consider and impose limits 
on the location and timing of the drilling to ensure that impacts are 
reduced.
    Response: The IHA requires, and Shell will implement, a cessation 
of activity on August 25 through the completion of the fall bowhead 
whale hunts conducted by the communities of Kaktovik and Nuiqsut in 
order to ensure no unmitigable adverse impact on the availability of 
bowhead whales for subsistence uses. NMFS determined that this was the 
only time/area closure needed to make the requisite findings under 
Section 101(a)(5)(D) of the MMPA.
    Comment 18: Dr. Bain states that noise exposure can lead to stress, 
which can impair the immune system and result in an increase in 
mortality from disease. He also notes that impairing the energy balance 
can slow growth, delay onset of sexual maturity, and increase the 
interval between successful births, all of which can cause a reduction 
in the number of animals recruited to the population. Dr. Bain 
concludes that these impacts in Camden Bay, which serves as a resting 
and feeding area for bowhead whales, will create the need for greater 
energy expenditure, leading to the impacts noted here.
    Response: While deflection may cause animals to expend extra 
energy, there is no evidence that deflecting around oil and gas 
activities (or other anthropogenic activities) is causing a significant 
behavioral change that will adversely impact population growth. In 
fact, bowhead whales continued to increase in abundance during periods 
of intense seismic activity in the Chukchi Sea in the 1980s (Raftery et 
al., 1995; Allen and Angliss, 2011). Additionally, as mentioned in the 
response to Comment 14, observations of feeding bowheads during aerial 
surveys from 2000-2009 have been made more often in the areas east of 
Kaktovik and from Smith Bay to Point Barrow than in Camden Bay (Clarke 
and Ferguson, undated; Clarke et al., 2011a,b). Therefore, deflection 
around the drilling area is not anticipated to result in significantly 
reduced feeding opportunities of bowhead whales. Regarding recruitment 
of calves to the population, the count of 121 calves during the 2001 
census was the highest yet recorded and was likely caused by a 
combination of variable recruitment and the large population size 
(George et al., 2004). The calf count provides corroborating evidence 
for a healthy and increasing population. Based on this information, 
NMFS does not expect Shell's activities to impact annual rates of 
recruitment or survival within the Western Arctic bowhead stock.
    Comment 19: Dr. Bain states: ``Disturbance has the effect of 
causing the population to behave as though it is closer to carrying 
capacity than it would in the absence of disturbance.'' Even though the 
bowhead population increased in the face of industry activity in the 
1990s, an increase in disturbance now (while it appears close to 
carrying capacity) could result in slowed growth or a loss of 
individuals.
    Response: Based on information provided in the responses to earlier 
comments in this section, NMFS does not agree that population growth 
would be slowed as a result of Shell's proposed activity or increase 
the numbers of individuals lost. There are no data indicating that the 
population cannot continue to grow (as it has for over a decade) in the 
face of such activities. Shell's activities will occur in a small 
portion of the bowhead's range. Additionally, activities will cease for 
the first few weeks of the fall migration, allowing for some 
individuals to pass without any potential for disturbance.
    Comment 20: Dr. Bain states that the increase in vessel traffic 
associated with Shell's project increases the risk of ship strike.
    Response: NMFS acknowledges that there is always some risk of a 
ship strike whenever a vessel transits the ocean. However, the IHA 
requires Shell to implement several mitigation measures applicable to 
vessel operation (e.g., speed restrictions in the presence of marine 
mammals or in inclement weather, avoiding multiple changes in direction 
when within 300 yards [274 m] of whales) to reduce further the low 
probability of a ship strike.
    Comment 21: Dr. Bain notes that masking of beluga whale 
echolocation signals by noise and temporary and permanent threshold 
shifts will impair the ability of belugas to find food. This mechanism 
is in addition to impaired abilities to find food due to displacement 
from high quality feeding areas.
    Response: As noted in the proposed IHA, beluga whale echolocation 
signals have peak frequencies from 40-120 kHz, which are far above the 
frequency range of the sounds produced by the devices to be used by 
Shell during the Camden Bay exploratory drilling program. Therefore, 
those industrial sounds are not expected to interfere with 
echolocation. Additionally, the source levels of the drillships are 
lower than the thresholds used by NMFS for the onset of auditory 
injury. Shutdown and power-down measures are required in the IHA when 
the airguns are in use to help reduce further the extremely low 
likelihood of temporary threshold shift (a Level B harassment). Lastly, 
there are no data indicating that Camden Bay is an important feeding 
area for beluga whales.
    Comment 22: Dr. Bain states: ``Support vessel traffic will be 
disturbing to the part of the beluga population using lagoons and other 
nearshore habitats.''
    Response: For Shell's Camden Bay exploratory drilling program, 
transfer of supplies will occur either from the Deadhorse/West Dock 
shorebase or Dutch Harbor. For much of the early part of the 
operational season, belugas will not be present in high numbers in the 
Beaufort Sea. Transits through the Chukchi Sea to help support the 
Camden Bay, Beaufort Sea, program will occur further offshore, and 
support vessels will not enter the lagoons used by belugas in the 
Chukchi Sea. Moreover, as mentioned earlier in this document, Shell is 
required to implement several vessel mitigation measures to reduce 
impacts to marine mammals. NMFS analyzed the entirety of Shell's 
operations (including support vessel activities) and has included 
measures to reduce potential disturbance from all aspects of the 
operations.
    Comment 23: Dr. Bain states that hearing loss or masking from 
exposure to high levels of noise would impair bowhead whales' ability 
to hear vocalizations. He also states that hearing

[[Page 27293]]

loss and masking would increase vulnerability to predation or ship 
strike, which in turn could increase mortality.
    Response: As noted in the response to Comment 21, the source levels 
of the drillships are lower than the thresholds used by NMFS for the 
onset of auditory injury. Shutdown and power-down measures are required 
in the IHA when the airguns are in use to help reduce further the 
extremely low likelihood of temporary threshold shift (a Level B 
harassment). As noted in the proposed IHA, masking effects are 
anticipated to be limited. Annual acoustic monitoring near BP's 
Northstar production facility during the fall bowhead migration 
westward through the Beaufort Sea has recorded thousands of calls each 
year (for examples, see Richardson et al., 2007; Aerts and Richardson, 
2008). To compensate for and reduce masking, some mysticetes may alter 
the frequencies of their communication sounds (Richardson et al., 
1995a; Parks et al., 2007). Additionally, if some individuals avoid the 
drilling area, impacts from masking will be even lower. There is no 
evidence to suggest that any masking would increase the likelihood of 
death.

Acoustic Issues/Concerns

    Comment 24: AWL and Dr. Bain question the radius of the 120 dB 
isopleth for the Kulluk. AWL states that the 120 dB distance is not 
conservative enough and therefore understates potential impacts to 
marine mammals. Dr. Bain indicates that the problems arise from 
differences in empirical data and that the modeling used does not 
capture the most efficient mode of propagation.
    Response: The commenters cite to a study conducted by Hall et al. 
(1994) in noting that Shell did not use a conservative enough 120-dB 
radius for the Kulluk. Blackwell and Greene (unpub.) conducted an 
assessment of Hall et al. (1994) in comparison to Greene (1987). That 
assessment is summarized here. Blackwell and Greene (unpub.) found that 
there are two main issues with the information presented in the Hall et 
al. (1994) report. First, the authors did not characterize the sounds 
produced by the Kulluk during specific activities, such as drilling, 
but then assume that the sounds recorded tens or even more than 100 km 
away are indeed those of the Kulluk. In other words, they have no way 
of demonstrating that the sounds they recorded at tens of km from the 
Kulluk are actually made by the Kulluk or whether those sounds are made 
by other sources, such as vessels unrelated to the drilling project.
    Second, the authors use propagation models that do not take into 
account scattering and absorption losses, which become important at 
distances of tens of km. The authors then use these models to make or 
support extrapolations to large distances, up to 120 km from the 
drilling operation. Also, as noted in the response to Comment 4, the 
source levels for the Kulluk used by the modeling study are considered 
an overestimate since they include the contributions of support 
vessels. Greene (1987), from which these measurements were taken, 
points out that measurements at 1 km from the drillship are a composite 
of the sounds emitted from the drillship and other vessels. Based on 
this information, NMFS has determined that an appropriate 120-dB radius 
was considered when assessing impacts to marine mammals.
    Comment 25: AWL states that the proposed IHA is inadequate because 
it relies on modeling for the Sivulliq prospect to estimate the 
Kulluk's drilling noise despite the fact that sounds are ``expected to 
propagate shorter distances at the Sivulliq site.'' In contrast, NMFS 
took a ``precautionary approach'' when estimating the effects of 
drilling with the Discoverer, using the greater Torpedo site distance.
    Response: Modeled predictions were performed for the drillship 
Explorer operating at both Sivulliq (site K) and Torpedo (site N) and 
for the Kulluk operating at Sivulliq only. It is true that the maximum 
propagation distance to the 120 dB re 1 [micro]Pa for the Explorer was 
greater at the Torpedo site, but the difference was less than 3% (the 
distances were 2.99 mi [4.81 km] and 3.06 mi [4.93 km] at Sivulliq and 
Torpedo, respectively). This is likely due to the fact that Torpedo is 
approximately 3.7 mi (6 km) further offshore, and sound from this 
location reaches into deeper water, even though the wellsite depths are 
almost identical (108.3 ft [33 m] at Torpedo vs. 111.5 ft [34 m] at 
Sivulliq). Remodeling of the Kulluk operation at Torpedo was deemed 
unnecessary due to the similarity of the predicted noise footprints at 
these two sites and because any variability would be conservatively 
accounted for by the use of the 1.5 correction factor. Additionally, as 
noted previously, Shell will conduct SSV measurements of all equipment 
once on location.
    Comment 26: Dr. Bain states that the correction factor of 1.5 
applied to the distance to the 120 dB contour is inadequate to 
conservatively account for the variability.
    Response: The concern raised here is that the sound speed profile 
used for acoustic modeling of drill rig noise may not account for 
changes to the salinity and temperature profile that could influence 
and create variability in sound propagation, and the resulting 
variability might lead to conditions in which model estimates would not 
be conservative. While significant structure can form in the sound 
speed profile, the profile used for this modeling study was taken from 
the GDEM database for the corresponding locations and timing (month of 
September was used). The specific profile chosen (see Figure 3) has 
increasing sound speed with depth over the full water column. This 
profile leads to upward acoustic refraction that causes propagating 
sounds to bend up, thereby reducing interactions with the seabed. This 
situation generally reduces acoustic transmission loss as a result of 
acoustic energy being lost due to reflection and scattering from the 
bottom. It is believed to produce longer propagation distances than the 
stratified profile that sometimes forms with warmer high speed water 
overlying cooler water. That profile would be downward-refracting and 
would lead to more bottom interaction and sound energy loss. Therefore, 
a correction factor of 1.5 is appropriate in this circumstance.

Marine Mammal Biology Concerns

    Comment 27: AWL states that information on the essential spatial 
and temporal habitat needs of beluga whales is limited, severely 
compromising the ability to assess the impacts of Shell's proposal.
    Response: As noted in responses to earlier comments in this 
document, as required by the MMPA implementing regulations at 50 CFR 
216.102(a), NMFS has used the best scientific information available in 
assessing potential impacts and whether the activity will have no more 
than a negligible impact on the affected marine mammal species or 
stock. However, while NMFS agrees that there may be some uncertainty 
regarding spatial and temporal habitat needs of belugas, the best 
available information supports our findings.

[[Page 27294]]

[GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] TN09MY12.006

    Comment 28: AWL states that any final IHA must analyze potential 
effects of all of Shell's operations on ribbon, ringed, spotted, and 
bearded seals and must do so considering the distinct habitats and life 
histories for each. AWL also notes that portions of the ringed and 
bearded seal populations are proposed for listing under the Endangered 
Species Act (ESA) and that those listings were prompted, in part, by 
the effects of climate change on ice seal habitat. The added stress of 
diminishing habitat should be considered in NMFS' analysis here.
    Response: NMFS has considered the potential effects of Shell's 
activities on all four ice seal species in the context of the distinct 
habitats and life histories for each. In the proposed IHA, NMFS 
acknowledged the importance of sea ice to various life functions, such 
as breeding, pupping, and resting. Several of these species perform 
these functions on sea ice outside of the Camden Bay area. The ringed 
seal, which does construct subnivean lairs in the Beaufort, does not 
pup during the time when Shell would be operating. NMFS' EA for this 
action considers the impacts of climate change on ice seals in the 
region.
    Comment 29: AWL notes the recent outbreak of skin lesions and sores 
among ringed seals. The letter states that NMFS should consider the 
weakened state of the population as part of the analysis. They also 
note that some spotted and bearded seals have shown symptoms as well.
    Response: NMFS began receiving reports of the outbreak in summer 
2011 and declared an unusual mortality event in December 2011. An 
investigative team was established, and testing has been underway. 
Testing has ruled out numerous bacteria and viruses known to affect 
marine mammals, including Phocine distemper, influenza, Leptospirosis, 
Calicivirus, orthopoxvirus, and poxvirus. Foreign animal diseases and 
some domestic animal diseases tested for and found negative include 
foot and mouth disease, VES, pan picornavirus, and Rickettsial agents. 
Last month, preliminary radiation testing results were announced which 
indicate radiation exposure is likely not a factor in the illness. 
Further quantitative radionuclide testing is occurring this spring. 
Results will be made publicly available as soon as the analyses are 
completed.
    Reports from the NSB indicate that hunters during early winter 
observed many healthy bearded and ringed seals. The seals behaved 
normally: They were playful, curious but cautious, and maintained 
distance from boats. No lesions were observed on any seals. During 
December 2011 and January 2012, 20-30 adult ringed seals were harvested 
from leads in the sea ice in the NSB. Based on local reports, these 
seals had neither hair loss nor lesions. However, during late February 
2012, a young ringed seal with nodular and eroded flipper lesions but 
no hair loss was harvested. Additionally, necropsy results of the 
internal organs were consistent with animals with this disease that 
continues to affect ice seals in the NSB and Bering Strait regions. 
Chukotka hunters did not report any sightings or harvest of sick and/or 
hairless seals in December 2011 and January 2012.
    NMFS has considered this information as part of its analysis in 
making the final determinations for this IHA. The data available to 
date do not indicate that this has weakened the population. Moreover, 
Shell's activities are anticipated to take less than 1% of the 
population of all of the stocks of all three species noted by the 
commenter. The sound that will be produced by Shell's activities is of 
a low level. Therefore, even if the population were weakened from this 
outbreak it would not change our evaluation of the impacts of this 
activity at the population level.
    Comment 30: Dr. Bain states that work will be underway during the 
peak of the beluga calving season, and mothers with calves under 6 
months of age are most likely to occur near the drill sites and are the 
most vulnerable to harm from the project.
    Response: While Shell's exploratory drilling program will overlap 
temporally with the beluga calving season, it will not overlap 
spatially. Tagging data from the 1990s indicates that belugas from the 
eastern Beaufort Sea stock will be in

[[Page 27295]]

Canadian waters (i.e., Mackenzie Delta and Amundsen Gulf) in the summer 
(July and August) and do not start migrating through the Beaufort Sea 
until September but do so far offshore (Richard et al., 2001; DFO, 
2000). In the summer months, belugas from the eastern Chukchi Sea stock 
are typically found in Kasegaluk Lagoon and Kotzebue Sound (Suydam et 
al., 2001). Shell will transit far offshore so as not to disturb the 
summer beluga hunts conducted in Kasegaluk Lagoon and therefore will 
avoid interactions with mothers and calves. Tagging data of belugas 
from this stock have also indicated that they travel far offshore in 
the Beaufort Sea to Canadian waters later in the summer (Suydam et al., 
2001). Based on this information, it is unlikely that many beluga 
mother/calf pairs will pass within the 120-dB isopleths of Shell's 
Camden Bay exploratory drilling program. Mitigation and monitoring 
measures will ensure that impacts to any belugas that do occur in the 
vicinity of the program will be at the lowest level practicable.
    Comment 31: Dr. Bain states the population censuses for the eastern 
Chukchi Sea and Beaufort Sea stocks of belugas have not been conducted 
in the last 10 years and that population trends are unknown. No 
evidence of population growth was seen when censuses were still being 
conducted.
    Response: In accordance with NMFS' implementing regulations at 50 
CFR 216.102(a), NMFS used the best available science to make the 
requisite findings for issuance of the IHA. That science indicates that 
only small numbers of belugas will be taken and that those incidental 
takings will have no more than a negligible impact on the affected 
beluga stocks and will not have an unmitigable adverse impact on the 
availability of those belugas for taking for subsistence uses.

Density and Take Estimate Concerns

    Comment 32: Shell states that the value of 38 as the maximum 
estimated take of beluga whales was incorrect in the IHA application. 
The maximum estimated take of beluga from the Kulluk drilling sounds 
should be 65, not 38. The miscalculation was a result of a cell 
reference error in the ``Total'' table (Table 6-12 in Shell's IHA 
application).
    Response: NMFS agrees that it continued this error in the proposed 
IHA by not adding in the potential takes from ice management/
icebreaking and the ZVSP airguns. Therefore, NMFS has increased the 
estimated take of beluga whales from Shell's operations (i.e., use of 
the Kulluk, ice management/icebreaking, and ZVSP airgun usage) to 65. 
This changes the percentage of stock or population potentially taken 
from 0.1% to 0.2%.
    Comment 33: The NSB and Dr. Bain state that because some bowhead 
whales have shown responses to noise below 120 dB and only individuals 
within the 120 dB isopleth were considered taken, NMFS' estimate of 
take by harassment is likely biased low.
    Response: As indicated in the response to Comment 13, although it 
is possible that marine mammals could react to any sound levels 
detectable above the ambient noise level within the animals' respective 
frequency response range, this does not mean that such a reaction would 
be considered a take. According to experts on marine mammal behavior, 
whether a particular stressor could potentially disrupt the migration, 
breathing, nursing, breeding, feeding, or sheltering, etc., of a marine 
mammal, i.e., whether it would result in a take, is complex and context 
specific, and it depends on several variables in addition to the 
received level of the sound by the animals. The 120-dB acoustic 
criteria is a generalized threshold based on the available data that is 
intended to assist in the accurate assessment of take while 
acknowledging that sometimes animals will respond at received levels 
below that and sometimes they will not respond in a manner considered a 
take at received levels above 120 dB. NMFS, therefore, does not agree 
that the estimates of take by harassment are biased low.
    Comment 34: AWL states that there is no indication that the 
proposed IHA considered marine mammal movement during the time period 
over which the activities will occur. The letter also states that 
despite the fact that belugas will be migrating in the area, the 
proposed IHA does not consider their movement when calculating take, 
citing to the lower beluga densities and a lack of detailed data. Dr. 
Bain also notes that density and ensonified area can be used to 
calculate the number of individuals present at any given moment, but 
different individuals will be present at different times.
    Response: During migration, there are clear changes in the density 
of animals that pass through a particular area of ocean, and ``take'' 
estimates attempt to consider this. In other situations, it is 
difficult to account for the movements of individuals within a 
relatively small area of ocean. Using densities provides the best 
estimate of animals though it assumes that animals are distributed 
evenly in the environment, which is not correct. This approach has, 
however, been used for most statistical approaches to dealing with 
animals in such situations, and NMFS determined that it is an 
appropriate and robust approach to use in this instance. In most cases, 
it overestimates the number of animals actually ``taken'' by the 
activities because it assumes no avoidance of the area by individuals.
    Comment 35: AWL states that NMFS must first account for the 
movement of marine mammals during the time over which ice management/
icebreaking will occur. Also, any final IHA must also assess exactly 
when Shell's ice management/icebreaking will occur and also consider 
the effects of both ice management vessels operating simultaneously but 
at some distance apart. It cannot be assumed that such activities will 
be neatly confined to the beginning and end of Shell's operations.
    Response: See the response to Comment 34 regarding accounting for 
the movement of marine mammals. Because it cannot be predicted with 
absolute certainty as to when ice may be present in the area that could 
pose a risk to drilling operations, it is difficult to state with 
absolute certainty when Shell's ice management/icebreaking will occur. 
Using data on Arctic sea ice presence from recent years, Shell 
estimated the most likely times that such activities would be required. 
Shell will also implement an Ice Management Plan (IMP) to ensure real-
time ice and weather forecasting is conducted in order to identify 
conditions that might put operations at risk and will modify activities 
accordingly. The description of Shell's activities in the proposed IHA 
indicated that both ice management vessels could be operating 
simultaneously at different locations and was considered in the 
analysis.
    Comment 36: Dr. Bain states that Shell's Camden Bay drill sites are 
in a location where the migration corridor is narrow and that this will 
require nearly all bowheads passing by a drill site while it is active 
to be exposed to biologically significant levels of noise.
    Response: While some bowhead whales show behavioral reactions 
(e.g., avoidance, increase swim speed, etc.) to drilling and other 
industry activities, not all behavioral reactions rise to the level of 
biological significance (NRC, 2000, 2005). Many of the animals that 
migrate past Shell's operations will do so on the outer edge of the 
120-dB isopleth, NMFS' threshold for Level B (behavioral) harassment, 
where reactions are likely to be less severe. Additionally, Shell will 
cease operations on August 25 and will not resume until the close of 
the fall bowhead whale hunts conducted by the communities of Kaktovik 
and Nuiqsut (which is typically mid- to late

[[Page 27296]]

September). Therefore, those whales that pass through the migration 
corridor during the first few weeks of the migration period will do so 
during a period of time without any activity being conducted by Shell.

Subsistence Use Concerns

    Comment 37: The AEWC and ICAS state that they have expressed 
concerns about direct impacts to the subsistence hunts resulting from 
deflection of bowhead whales by vessel traffic and underwater noise, as 
well as from icebreaking and geophysical exploration. The letters note 
that concerns about direct and indirect threats to hunting arise from 
discharge and associated impacts on water quality, the risk of an oil 
spill, and the cumulative impacts from the sum of all commercial and 
industrial activities occurring in our waters. Under the MMPA, NMFS has 
an obligation to ensure that any proposed activities do not have an 
unmitigable adverse impact on our subsistence activities.
    Response: NMFS analyzed the potential impacts from the activities 
noted here in the proposed IHA and the EA. Potential impacts to the 
availability of marine mammals for subsistence uses were included in 
those analyses. Based on the mitigation measures contained in the IHA 
to ensure the availability of marine mammals for subsistence uses 
(including a temporary shutdown of activities during the fall bowhead 
hunt and collection of drilling muds and certain waste streams), NMFS 
determined that Shell's activities would not have an unmitigable 
adverse impact on the availability of marine mammal species or stocks 
for taking for subsistence uses. Additionally, Shell worked 
independently with the AEWC to develop and sign a CAA, which also 
includes measures to reduce impacts to bowhead whaling from their 
drilling operations and other activities.
    Comment 38: The AEWC expressed concern about potential impacts to 
the subsistence hunt in the Chukchi and Bering Seas communities from 
end of season transits and asks that NMFS address this issue in its 
response to comments, determining whether vessel transit could impact 
the fall subsistence hunt in Wainwright, Point Lay, and Point Hope, or 
the Bering Sea communities. The AEWC also requests that NMFS and Shell 
amend the Communications Plan in a way that allows Chukchi and Bering 
Sea communities to be notified when Shell's vessels are approaching 
subsistence use areas. In the past, whaling captains have asked that 
Shell begin to transit out of the Chukchi Sea by October 31 for vessels 
heading to Dutch Harbor or points south.
    Response: Shell signed the 2012 CAA with the AEWC on March 26, 
2012. In the signed 2012 CAA, Shell agreed to establish Communication 
Centers in the Chukchi and Bering Sea communities and will conduct such 
communications in the manner laid out in the CAA. The CAA also requires 
that vessel transits through the Chukchi Sea should remain as far 
offshore as weather and ice conditions allow and at all times at least 
5 mi (8 km) offshore during transit. Because Shell will abide by these 
measures, as indicated in the signed CAA and included in the IHA, NMFS 
has determined that fall vessel transits through the Chukchi Sea will 
not impact the hunts at Wainwright, Point Lay, and Point Hope. Shell's 
IHA is valid for drilling operations through October 31. Therefore, 
demobilization and transit out of the area must begin by that date. 
Information shared with NMFS from hunters on St. Lawrence Island in 
2011 noted that the fall bowhead whale hunts typically occur the week 
of Thanksgiving. Shell will begin to demobilize and transit south 
towards Dutch Harbor beginning on October 31 and will avoid being in 
the area when hunters from Gambell and Savoonga (on St. Lawrence 
Island) are actively hunting bowhead whales.
    Comment 39: The AEWC asks that NMFS require Shell to disclose 
through the Communications Plan the location of its oil spill response 
fleet and oil spill tanker in order to ensure that Shell does not 
station the vessels in a location that could potentially interfere with 
the fall hunt in Barrow, which often continues after the conclusion of 
the Nuiqsut and Kaktovik hunts.
    Response: As agreed to in the signed CAA, Shell will move the 
drillship and other related vessels to a location that will not cause 
interference with the hunts in Kaktovik, Nuiqsut, and Barrow.
    Comment 40: The MMC states that negotiating and completing a CAA 
related to bowhead whales is useful but also prompts the question as to 
why such agreements are not being developed with subsistence hunters 
taking other species that might be affected by oil and gas operations. 
With that in mind, the MMC recommends that NMFS issue the requested IHA 
contingent upon the successful negotiation of a CAA between Shell and 
the AEWC and the bowhead whale hunters it represents. Similarly, the 
MMC recommends that NMFS facilitate the development of more 
comprehensive CAAs that involve other species and potentially affected 
communities and co-management organizations and take into account all 
potential adverse effects on all marine mammal species taken for 
subsistence purposes.
    Response: The signing of a CAA is not a requirement to obtain an 
IHA. The CAA is a document that is negotiated between and signed by the 
industry participant, AEWC, and the Village Whaling Captains' 
Associations. NMFS has no role in the development or execution of this 
agreement. Although the contents of a CAA may inform NMFS' no 
unmitigable adverse impact determination for bowhead (and to some 
extent beluga) whales, the signing of it is not a requirement. 
Regulations promulgated pursuant to the 1986 MMPA amendments require 
that for an activity that will take place near a traditional Arctic 
hunting ground, or may affect the availability of marine mammals for 
subsistence uses, an applicant for MMPA authorization must either 
submit a POC or information that identifies the measures that have been 
taken to minimize adverse impacts on subsistence uses. Shell submitted 
a POC with its IHA application, which was available during the public 
comment period. Additionally, as indicated earlier in this document, 
Shell signed the 2012 CAA with the AEWC on March 26, 2012.
    NMFS (or other Federal agencies) has no authority to require 
agreements between third parties, and NMFS would not be able to enforce 
the provisions of CAAs because the Federal government is not a party to 
the agreements. Regarding the CAA signed with the AEWC, NMFS has 
reviewed that document, as well as Shell's POC. The majority of the 
conditions are identical between the two documents. NMFS has also 
included measures from the 2012 CAA between Shell and the AEWC relevant 
to ensuring no unmitigable adverse impact on the availability of marine 
mammals for subsistence uses. NMFS has also determined that the 
measures in the POC related to species other than the bowhead whale are 
sufficient to ensure no unmitigable adverse impact on the availability 
of those species for subsistence uses.
    In the recently released Draft EIS on the Effects of Oil and Gas 
Activities in the Arctic Ocean (NMFS, 2011), NMFS began to examine both 
the CAA and POC processes. There are strengths and weaknesses in how 
both processes are currently executed. NMFS is committed to working 
with the AEWC, Alaska Beluga Whale Committee, and Ice Seal Committee 
and other stakeholders to improve upon and combine these processes, as 
appropriate.

[[Page 27297]]

    Comment 41: The NSB appreciates Shell's effort to mitigate impacts 
to the bowhead hunt; however, Shell's proposed activities may adversely 
impact subsistence hunting of other species. Mitigation measures are 
needed to protect eastern Chukchi Sea belugas and beluga hunters. 
Restricting transit through the Chukchi Sea until the hunt is completed 
at Point Lay would be an effective measure. NMFS must also evaluate 
impacts to seals from the transit of vessels associated with Shell's 
planned activities and how that may impact seal hunts.
    Response: In the proposed IHA, NMFS evaluated potential impacts to 
subsistence hunts of all species in the project area. Beluga whales and 
ice seals are not typically hunted in Camden Bay from July through 
October. The primary periods during which sealing takes place occur 
outside of Shell's operating time frame, and some of the more 
established seal hunts that do occur in the Beaufort Sea, such as the 
Colville delta area hunts, are located a significant distance (in some 
instances 100 mi [161 km] or more) from Shell's drill sites.
    NMFS understands the NSB's concerns regarding vessel transit and 
how that may affect hunts in the Chukchi Sea communities, especially 
the summer beluga hunt at Point Lay. Shell has committed to transiting 
offshore of the hunt and to communicating with Point Lay via the 
Communication Center regarding vessel transits to ensure that they 
remain outside of the hunting areas. These measures were part of 
Shell's POC and are included in the IHA. Therefore, NMFS has determined 
that there will not be an unmitigable adverse impact on the 
availability of beluga whales and ice seals for taking for subsistence 
uses.

Mitigation and Monitoring Concerns

    Comment 42: Shell states that the 1,500 ft (457 m) flight altitude 
restriction mitigation measure applies to all ``non-marine mammal 
observation'' flights, thus allowing for observer flights to fly lower 
as needed to afford the best possible marine mammal sightings and 
identifications.
    Response: NMFS concurs. The measure was written in two different 
ways in several parts of the proposed IHA. One way only exempted 
takeoffs, landings, and emergency situations from the 1,500 ft (457 m) 
altitude restriction, while in other parts of the document marine 
mammal monitoring flights were also exempted. NMFS has eliminated the 
discrepancy in the final IHA. The exemption now applies to takeoffs, 
landings, emergency situations, and marine mammal monitoring flights.
    Comment 43: The MMC asks how Shell will monitor the large 
harassment zone of the drill rig to estimate actual numbers of takes? 
The MMC recommends that NMFS require Shell to develop and employ a more 
effective means to monitor the entire corrected 120-dB re 1 [micro]Pa 
harassment zone for the presence and movement of bowhead whales and 
other marine mammals and for estimating the actual number of takes that 
occur. Monitoring only a portion of the harassment zone and then 
extrapolating to estimate the total number of takes is reasonable only 
if the company and NMFS have a basis for making assumptions about the 
composition and distribution of marine mammals throughout the areas 
potentially affected.
    Response: While the 120-dB harassment zone from the drill rig will 
likely extend beyond what the observers can effectively see from the 
drill rig, Shell will place Protected Species Observers (PSOs) on all 
vessels used for the drilling operations. Many of these vessels will be 
located several kilometers from the drill rig, thus expanding the 
visual observation zone. Moreover, Shell will supplement its vessel-
based operations with marine mammal aerial observations, thus expanding 
the visual observation zone. PSOs will be stationed on the vessels to 
observe from the best vantage points available and will be equipped 
with ``Big-eyes'' and other binoculars to aid in detection. 
Additionally, NMFS does not contend that PSOs will be able to see every 
marine mammal within the harassment zone. Using the vessel-based and 
aerial platforms to detect and count marine mammal sightings and then 
to use those observations in conjunction with sightings from other 
surveys such as BWASP is reasonable for estimating maximum take.
    Comment 44: The MMC recommends that NMFS track and enforce Shell's 
implementation of mitigation and monitoring measures to ensure that 
they are executed as expected.
    Response: During Shell's operating season, NMFS will meet weekly 
with staff from BOEM, the Bureau of Safety and Environmental 
Enforcement (BSEE), and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) to 
review and analyze proprietary operations reports, including PSO logs 
to ensure environmental and regulatory compliance. Additionally, BSEE 
will have inspectors on the drilling platform 24 hours a day/7 days a 
week.
    Comment 45: The NSB, MMC, and AWL state that NMFS should require 
Shell to make monitoring data available to the public. The NSB states 
that in addition to the monitoring data, locations and activities of 
drill rigs, icebreakers, and support vessels should also be made 
publicly available.
    Response: In accordance with an agreement between NOAA, Shell, 
ConocoPhillips, and Statoil, data from Shell sponsored science and 
monitoring efforts and from those that are jointly funded by the 
signatory parties will be made available to NOAA and to the public. The 
manner of release, format of released data, site(s) of data repository, 
and rights of data use are currently being addressed by a working 
group. Public access to these data is being addressed through this 
process and would not be enhanced by conditions imposed through the 
IHA.
    Shell has committed to the support and operation of communication 
centers in Kaktovik, Nuiqsut, Barrow, Wainwright, Point Lay, Point 
Hope, Kivalina, Kotzebue, St. Lawrence Island, and Wales. As required 
by the CAA (which Shell signed on March 26, 2012), all Shell vessels 
operating in the Beaufort and Chukchi Sea will contact the nearest 
communication center every 6 hours and provide the following 
information:
    (A) Vessel name, operator of vessel, charter or owner of vessel, 
and the project the vessel is working on;
    (B) Vessel location, speed, and direction; and
    (C) Plans for vessel movement between the time of the call and the 
time of the next call. The final call of the day will include a 
statement of the vessel's general area of expected operations for the 
following day, if known at that time.
    The vessels will also contact the nearest communications center in 
the event that operations change significantly from those projected 
during the prior 6 hour reporting period. The communication centers 
will be generally open and available to the public and will provide a 
capability for direct communications between subsistence hunters and 
Shell vessels. Shell will operate these centers for the entire duration 
of operations in the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas, rather than limiting 
operations to the periods of the bowhead subsistence hunt.
    Since 2010, NMFS has required operators in the Arctic to provide 
vessel tracks during the season as a part of the required 90 day 
report. Given that the potentially impacted public are provided with 
multiple avenues with which they can acquire vessel location and 
activity data, and that vessel tracks will be made available to the 
general

[[Page 27298]]

public at the end of the season, there is no additional need for real-
time public access to vessel location information. Further, given that 
there are current and legitimate concerns with respect to security of 
vessels, crew, and operations, public access to vessel locations and 
activities may not be in the best interest of safe marine operations.

Cumulative Impact Concerns

    Comment 46: The MMC noted that it is important to consider that 
some of the animals may already be in a compromised state as a result 
of climate disruption, stochastic variation in food resources, or 
variation in physiological state due to normal life history events 
(e.g., molting or reproduction in pinnipeds).
    Response: In the Notice of Proposed IHA (76 FR 68974, November 7, 
2011), NMFS considered others factors, including when pinnipeds and 
cetaceans conduct varying life history functions and whether or not 
those activities overlap in time and space with Shell's Camden Bay 
exploratory drilling program. Pupping and breeding for most ice seals 
do not occur in Camden Bay. Pupping of ringed seals, which do build 
subnivean lairs in the Beaufort Sea, occurs outside of Shell's 
operating time frame in the Beaufort Sea. Additionally, in the EA for 
this action, NMFS analyzed impacts of other activities and factors, 
such as climate disruption. Based on this information, NMFS determined 
that the taking by harassment from Shell's activities would have no 
more than a negligible impact on the affected marine mammal species or 
stocks.
    Comment 47: Dr. Bain states that cumulative effects are of concern 
and that the drilling in the Beaufort Sea cannot be considered 
separately from other planned activities, including similar activities 
in the Chukchi Sea. Further, if exploratory drilling results in future 
production, the cumulative effect of production in the core of the 
migration route needs to be considered.
    Response: NMFS analyzed the combination of both of Shell's proposed 
2012 drilling programs in its EA, as well as other seismic exploration 
and vessel transportation in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas. 
Additionally, NMFS' response to Comment 7 explains how other factors 
were taken into consideration when analyzing this proposal under the 
MMPA. Because it is unknown if Shell will successfully find oil during 
its exploratory drilling program, it is premature and speculative to 
discuss potential impacts from building a production facility in Camden 
Bay. If Shell finds oil, it would be several years before construction 
of a production facility would begin. Additional environmental analyses 
would be required at that time.

ESA Statutory Concerns

    Comment 48: AWL notes that the proposed IHA indicates that NMFS 
will initiate ESA section 7 consultation for three listed marine mammal 
species but then cites to the Chukchi Sea Notice of Proposed IHA (76 FR 
70007, November 9, 2011). NMFS, however, should not overlook bearded 
and ringed seals in its consultation.
    Response: The Notice of Proposed IHA (76 FR 68974, November 7, 
2011) for this action noted that NMFS would initiate ESA section 7 
consultation for the bowhead whale. However, NMFS has included ringed 
and bearded seals in the Biological Opinion prepared for this action, 
which analyzes effects to ESA-listed species, as well as species 
proposed for listing.
    Comment 49: AWL states that the conclusions reached in NMFS' 2008 
and 2010 Biological Opinions for oil and gas activities in the Arctic 
regarding effects of oil spills must be reconsidered.
    Response: NMFS' Office of Protected Resources Permits and 
Conservation Division requested consultation under section 7 of the ESA 
with the NMFS Alaska Regional Office Endangered Species Division. A new 
Biological Opinion has been prepared for this IHA. In April, 2012, NMFS 
finished conducting its section 7 consultation and issued a Biological 
Opinion, and concluded that the issuance of the IHA associated with 
Shell's 2012 Beaufort Sea drilling program is not likely to jeopardize 
the continued existence of the endangered bowhead whale, the Arctic 
sub-species of ringed seal, or the Beringia distinct population segment 
of bearded seal. No critical habitat has been designated for these 
species, therefore none will be affected.

NEPA Statutory Concerns

    Comment 50: The AEWC and NSB state that NMFS must include 
information regarding upcoming oil and gas activities planned for the 
Beaufort and Chukchi Seas in 2012 in U.S., Russian, and Canadian 
waters, as well as reasonably foreseeable future drilling activities. 
Both letters request that NMFS develop a method for assessing impacts 
from multiple drilling operations and to ascertain the significance of 
multiple exposures to underwater noise, ocean discharge, and air 
pollution and vessel traffic.
    Response: NMFS' EA contains information on upcoming activities in 
U.S., Russian, and Canadian waters for the 2012 season, as well as 
reasonably foreseeable future drilling activities in the project area. 
The EA qualitatively describes how marine mammals could be impacted 
from multiple activities in a given season and what the results of 
those exposures might be.
    Comment 51: NSB states that NMFS should be required to prepare an 
EIS, not an EA, to adequately consider the potentially significant 
impacts of the proposed IHAs, including the cumulative impacts of 
Shell's proposed activities.
    Response: NMFS' 2012 EA was prepared to evaluate whether 
significant environmental impacts may result from the issuance of IHAs 
to Shell for the take of marine mammals incidental to conducting 
exploratory drilling programs in the U.S. Beaufort and Chukchi Seas, 
which is an appropriate application of NEPA. After completing the EA, 
NMFS determined that there would not be significant impacts to the 
human environment and accordingly issued a FONSI. Therefore, an EIS is 
not needed for this action.
    Comment 52: The NSB states that NMFS should consider the cumulative 
impact of discharge and whether bioaccumulation of contaminants could 
have lethal or sub-lethal effects on bowhead whales and other marine 
mammals. NMFS should then synthesize that information into a health 
impact assessment looking at the overall combined effect to the health 
of the local residents.
    Response: As explained by the Council on Environmental Quality, an 
EA is a concise document and should not contain long descriptions or 
detailed data which the agency may have gathered. Rather, it should 
contain a brief discussion of the need for the proposal, alternatives 
to the proposal, the environmental impacts of the proposed action and 
alternatives, and a list of agencies and persons consulted. See NEPA's 
Forty Most Asked Questions, 46 FR 18026 (March 23, 1981); 40 CFR 
1508.9(b). The EA prepared for this action contains a discussion of 
water quality, including contaminants, in sections 3.1.5.2 and 4.2.1.5 
and incorporates additional material by reference. It also notes that 
contaminants have the potential to bioaccumulate in marine mammals, but 
that monitoring has shown that oil and gas developments in the Alaskan 
Beaufort Sea ``are not contributing ecologically important amounts of 
petroleum hydrocarbons and metals to the near-shore marine food web of 
the area'' (EA at 4.2.2.3). Given that the studies done so far have 
detected no

[[Page 27299]]

bioaccumulation of contaminants as a result of oil and gas activity in 
the Beaufort Sea, it is only a remote and highly speculative 
possibility that discharges from Shell's exploration drilling program 
could contribute to cumulative impacts from contaminants that could 
ultimately result in health impacts to local residents. Agencies are 
not required to consider such remote or speculative impacts in an EA 
(see Ground Zero Ctr. for Non-Violent Action v. United States Dept of 
the Navy, 383 F.3d 1082, 1090 (9th Cir. 2004)). However, NMFS 
acknowledges the importance of this issue to residents of the North 
Slope Borough, and has included a more extensive discussion of 
environmental contamination and its potential effects in the Draft EIS 
on Effects of Oil and Gas Activities in the Arctic Ocean (NMFS, 2011).
    Comment 53: AWL states that it would be illegal for NMFS to approve 
the IHA without completing the EIS that is in progress. NSB also states 
that it would be shortsighted to allow Shell to proceed on a 1-year IHA 
when the impacts could negatively affect arctic resources and preclude 
options that could be developed in the forthcoming EIS.
    Response: While the Final EIS is still being developed, NMFS 
conducted a thorough analysis of the affected environment and 
environmental consequences from exploratory drilling in the Arctic in 
2012 and prepared an EA specific to the two exploratory drilling 
programs proposed to be conducted by Shell. The analysis contained in 
that EA warranted a Finding of No Significant Impact.
    The analysis contained in the Final EIS will apply more broadly to 
multiple Arctic oil and gas operations over a period of 5 years. NMFS' 
issuance of IHAs to Shell for the taking of several species of marine 
mammals incidental to conducting its exploratory drilling operations in 
the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas in 2012, as analyzed in the EA, is not 
expected to significantly affect the quality of the human environment. 
Additionally, the EA contained a full analysis of cumulative impacts.

Oil Spill Concerns

    Comment 54: The NSB and MMC state that Shell's application and 
NMFS' Notice of Proposed IHA (76 FR 68974, November 7, 2011) do not 
contain adequate information regarding effects of a major oil spill. 
The MMC notes that NMFS is too dismissive of the potential for a large 
oil spill. The NSB requests clarification on how NMFS considers the 
risk of an oil spill when issuing MMPA authorizations for exploratory 
drilling activities and contends that NMFS must analyze the potential 
harm to marine mammals and subsistence activities. The NSB also states 
that Shell's application lacks any information about potential take 
resulting from a release of oil in any amount.
    Response: NMFS' Notice of Proposed IHA contained information 
regarding measures Shell has instituted to reduce the possibility of a 
major oil spill during its operations, as well as potential impacts on 
cetaceans and pinnipeds, their habitats, and subsistence activities 
(see 76 FR 68992-68996, 69001, and 69024, November 7, 2011). NMFS' EA 
also contains an analysis of the potential effects of an oil spill on 
marine mammals, their habitats, and subsistence activities. Much of 
that analysis is incorporated by reference from other NEPA documents 
prepared for activities in the region. There is no information 
regarding potential take from a release of oil because an oil spill is 
not a component of the ``specified activity.''
    DOI's BOEM and BSEE are the agencies with expertise in assessing 
risks of an oil spill. In reviewing Shell's Camden Bay Exploration Plan 
and Regional OSRP, BOEM and BSEE determined that the risk was low and 
that Shell will implement adequate measures to minimize the risk. 
Shell's OSRP: identifies the company's prevention procedures; estimates 
the potential discharges and describes the resources and steps that 
Shell would take to respond in the unlikely event of a spill; and 
addresses a range of spill volumes, ranging from small operational 
spills to the worst case discharge calculations required to account for 
the unlikely event of a blowout. Additionally, NOAA's Office of 
Response and Restoration reviewed Shell's OSRP and provided input to 
DOI requesting changes that should be made to the plan before it should 
be approved. Shell incorporated NOAA's suggested changes, which 
included updating the trajectory analysis and the worst case discharge 
scenario. Based on these revisions, NOAA Ocean Service's Office of 
Response and Restoration believes that Shell's plans to respond to an 
offshore oil spill in the U.S. Arctic Ocean are satisfactory, as 
described in a memorandum provided to NMFS by the Office of Response 
and Restoration. Lastly, in the unlikely event of an oil spill, Shell 
will conduct response activities in accordance with NOAA's Marine 
Mammal Oil Spill Response Guidelines.
    Comment 55: The MMC notes that the risk of an oil spill is not 
simply a function of its probability of occurrence; it also must take 
into account the consequences if such a spill occurs. Those 
consequences are, in part, a function of the spill's characteristics 
and the ability of the industry and government to mount an effective 
response. The MMC states: ``The assertion that Shell would be able to 
respond adequately to any kind of major spill is simply unsupported by 
all the available evidence.'' The MMC asserts that the OSRP is still 
inadequate for addressing a large oil spill in the Arctic.
    Response: As noted in the response to Comment 54, DOI approved 
Shell's OSRP on March 28, 2012. That approval came after an extensive 
review process and changes were made to the plan based on comments from 
DOI, NOAA, and other Federal agencies. The plan calls for Shell to have 
several response assets near the drill sites for immediate response, 
while also having additional equipment available for quick delivery, if 
needed. DOI will also continue to provide oversight with exercises, 
reviews, and inspections. NMFS' EA and recent BOEM NEPA analyses assess 
impacts to the environment from an oil spill.
    Comment 56: The MMC recommends that NMFS require Shell to cease 
drilling operations in mid- to late September to reduce the possibility 
of having to respond to a large oil spill in ice conditions. AWL also 
states that NMFS should consider restrictions on late-season drilling.
    Response: NMFS has determined that such a requirement is 
unnecessary. Shell requested an IHA to conduct drilling operations 
through October 31. NMFS analyzed potential impacts to marine mammals, 
their habitat, and the availability of marine mammals for subsistence 
uses from Shell's activities being conducted from early July through 
October. NMFS has concluded that those activities will result in the 
take of small numbers of marine mammals and that take will have no more 
than a negligible impact on the affected marine mammal species or 
stocks and will not have an unmitigable adverse impact on the 
availability of marine mammals for subsistence uses. Additionally, for 
its Camden Bay exploratory drilling program, Shell will cease 
operations on August 25 for the fall bowhead whale hunts conducted by 
the communities of Kaktovik and Nuiqsut and will not resume until those 
hunts are deemed closed (which typically occurs in mid- to late 
September). During this hunting shutdown period, Shell will monitor ice 
conditions at the drill sites. If those data indicate that it would be 
too dangerous to return to the drill sites after the close

[[Page 27300]]

of the hunts, then Shell will cease operations in Camden Bay for the 
remainder of the season. Additionally, BOEM will have inspectors on the 
drill rig 24 hours a day/7 days a week and can call for a shutdown of 
operations, if necessary.
    Comment 57: The MMC recommends that NMFS require Shell to develop 
and implement a detailed, comprehensive and coordinated Wildlife 
Protection Plan that includes strategies and sufficient resources for 
minimizing contamination of sensitive marine mammal habitats and that 
provides a realistic description of the actions that Shell can take, if 
any, to respond to oiled or otherwise affected marine mammals. The plan 
should be developed in consultation with Alaska Native communities 
(including marine mammal co-management organizations), state and 
Federal resource agencies, and experienced non-governmental 
organizations.
    Response: As noted in the response to Comment 54, Shell will 
operate any needed oil spill response activities in accordance with 
NOAA's Marine Mammal Oil Spill Response Guidelines. These guidelines 
were released to the public as part of NMFS' Programmatic EIS on the 
Marine Mammal Health and Stranding Response Program and were available 
for public review at that time. Those guidelines also underwent legal 
and peer review before being released. Those guidelines are currently 
being updated based on lessons learned from the Deepwater Horizon spill 
in the Gulf of Mexico.
    Comment 58: AWL states that NMFS should further examine the 
potential impacts of a major oil spill on bowhead whales. For example, 
although the proposed IHA notes that a late-season spill could 
contaminate the spring lead system, it does not appear to consider 
whether a spill in October could affect both fall and spring migrants 
(see 76 FR 68995).
    Response: NMFS' Notice of Proposed IHA (76 FR 68974, November 7, 
2011) contains analysis of potential impacts from a late season spill 
on both fall and spring migrants. The information regarding whales 
migrating past the Camden Bay drill sites in the fall is found on the 
same page in the Federal Register notice noted by AWL in its comment. 
That analysis notes that the fall migration would not be completed if a 
spill were to occur in the fall and that some animals migrate close to 
shore. If fall migrants were moving through leads in the pack ice or 
were concentrated in nearshore waters, some bowhead whales might not be 
able to avoid oil slicks and could be subject to prolonged 
contamination. However, the autumn migration past Camden Bay extends 
over several weeks, and some of the whales travel along routes north of 
the area, thereby reducing the number of whales that could approach 
patches of spilled oil. Additionally, vessel activity associated with 
spill cleanup efforts may deflect whales traveling near Camden Bay 
farther offshore, thereby reducing the likelihood of contact with 
spilled oil. Also, during years when movements of oil and whales might 
be partially confined by ice, the bowhead migration corridor tends to 
be farther offshore (Treacy, 1997; LGL and Greeneridge, 1996a; Moore, 
2000).
    Comment 59: AWL states that NMFS should also revisit the proposed 
IHA's conclusions as to the effects of an oil spill on beluga whales. 
It is unclear why the Beaufort Sea stock's migration into the Beaufort 
Sea in the spring results in the conclusion that an oil spill in summer 
would ``not be expected to have major impacts.''
    Response: The migration patterns and recorded locations of beluga 
whales from the Beaufort Sea stock indicate that the majority of these 
animals are not located in the U.S. Beaufort Sea in July and August, 
although some individuals may remain in the area. Therefore, if a spill 
were to happen after Shell is on location in Camden Bay (after July 1) 
in July or August, few (if any) beluga whales would be in the vicinity. 
Based on this, NMFS determined that major impacts would not be expected 
if a spill occurred at this time and were cleaned up before the animals 
began migrating back through the U.S. Beaufort Sea.

Proposed IHA Language Concerns

    The comments and concerns contained in this grouping relate to the 
language that was contained in the Notice of Proposed IHA (76 FR 69024-
69027, November 7, 2011) in the section titled ``Proposed Incidental 
Harassment Authorization.'' The commenters requested clarification or 
changes to some of the specific wording of the conditions that would be 
contained in the issued IHA. The referenced condition in the proposed 
IHA is noted in the comments here. Numbers of the conditions match the 
proposed IHA and may differ slightly from the issued IHA.
    Comment 60: Regarding Condition 1, Shell asks that the IHA become 
effective on July 1 instead of July 10 since the company will begin 
transiting into the Chukchi Sea on July 1 (but not before), if weather 
permits, and could therefore arrive on location at the Torpedo or 
Sivulliq prospects before July 10.
    Response: NMFS has made the requested change. Changing the date 
from July 10 to July 1 does not alter any of the analyses contained in 
the proposed IHA.
    Comment 61: Regarding Condition 2, Shell asks that the language of 
the IHA not limit the incidental takings from authorized sound sources 
to those made while only on Shell lease holdings because ice management 
activities may occur beyond the lease boundaries and the continuous 
noise of the drillship may extend beyond the limits of Shell's lease 
holdings.
    Response: NMFS has retained the first sentence of Condition 2, as 
originally proposed, which states that only activities associated with 
Shell's 2012 Camden Bay exploration plan are covered by the IHA. 
Because the exploration plan describes the locations of activities, 
NMFS has determined that language is legally sufficient. NMFS 
understands, and did analyze, that ice management may at times occur 25 
mi (40 km) from the actual drill site. Additionally, NMFS analyzed the 
propagation and sound isopleths of the drill rig, which may attenuate 
beyond the actual lease holding itself.
    Comment 62: Regarding Condition 3(a), Shell requests that narwhal 
be included in the list of species for which incidental take is 
authorized.
    Response: As noted in the Notice of Proposed IHA (76 FR 68974, 
November 7, 2011), NMFS determined that presence of narwhal in the U.S. 
Beaufort Sea is rare and extralimital. Encounters are unlikely.
    Comment 63: Regarding Condition 7(a), Shell asks whether the 
response they provided to NMFS on July 29, 2011, for a definition of 
``group'' is consistent with the intent meant by NMFS in the Federal 
Register notice. As a general practice, Shell will adopt a definition 
of a group as being three or more whales observed within a 547-yd (500-
m) area and displaying behaviors of directed or coordinated activity 
(e.g., group feeding).
    Response: NMFS agrees with this definition and will add the 
following sentence to Condition 7(a): ``For purposes of this 
Authorization, a group is defined as being three or more whales 
observed within a 547-yd (500-m) area and displaying behaviors of 
directed or coordinated activity (e.g., group feeding).''
    Comment 64: Shell requests that Condition 7(e) be modified to match 
with the language contained in Condition 9(e), which allows marine 
mammal monitoring flights to also fly below the 1,500 ft (457 m) 
altitude restriction. In the proposed IHA, those two conditions 
contradicted on another.

[[Page 27301]]

    Response: NMFS agrees that Condition 7(e) should be rewritten to 
match Condition 9(e). The condition now reads as follows: ``Aircraft 
shall not fly within 1,000 ft (305 m) of marine mammals or below 1,500 
ft (457 m) altitude (except during marine mammal monitoring, takeoffs, 
landings, or in emergency situations) while over land or sea.''
    Comment 65: Regarding Condition 7(f), Shell asks if the length of 
daily duty restrictions included in the measure apply only to the 
drillship and ice management vessels or to all vessels, including 
smaller support vessels. Shell's view is that the remainder of support 
vessels, not included as ``sound sources,'' will have fewer observers 
than either the drillship or ice management vessels (mainly due to bunk 
space), which will be sufficient to cover marine mammal observations.
    Response: NMFS concurs that the watch requirements were meant to 
apply to the drillship and two ice management vessels. PSOs will be 
required to be stationed on the other support vessels. However, they 
will not need to be on watch 24 hours a day, as those vessels are not 
always active 24 hours a day. PSOs will need to be on watch when the 
smaller support vessels are active, such as for supply transport.
    Comment 66: Regarding Condition 7(g)(iv), Shell requests that the 
requirement to measure water temperature be removed as a stipulation 
under this measure given that it lacks material value to the recording 
of marine observations and adherence to other more salient mitigation 
measures.
    Response: NMFS included the recording of water temperature along 
with other more salient data collection parameters in the proposed IHA 
because it was included in Shell's original 4MP. After further 
discussion with Shell, NMFS agrees that it is not necessary to record 
water temperature each time a marine mammal is sighted and has removed 
the requirement from the IHA, and Shell has removed it from its 
monitoring plan.
    Comment 67: Shell acknowledges that they have voluntarily elected 
to institute Condition 9(f) as a subsistence mitigation measure. 
However, they do not concur with the implied assertion in the heading 
of Condition 9 ``Subsistence Mitigation Measures'' that this measure is 
a necessity ``to ensure no unmitigable adverse impact on subsistence 
uses of marine mammals.''
    Response: NMFS will move this condition from section 9 of the IHA 
(``Subsistence Mitigation Measures'') to section 7 (``General 
Mitigation and Monitoring Requirements''). NMFS acknowledges that 
collection of drilling mud and cuttings and certain other waste streams 
is a voluntary decision on the part of Shell. While the inclusion of 
this measure was part of NMFS' analysis and used in making the 
negligible impact and no unmitigable adverse impact to subsistence uses 
findings, the absence of such a measure likely would not have altered 
the conclusion for those two findings.
    Comment 68: The AEWC requests that Condition 10(c)(i) include a 
date certain for Shell to carry out the SSV. Shell requests that this 
condition, as well as Condition 11(a), include language reflecting the 
flexibility of providing the drilling sounds on a ``rolling'' basis. 
Shell states that SSVs for the drilling vessel will necessitate that 
recordings of the various sounds of the drilling program continue 
throughout the drilling season. Hence, all drilling program sounds will 
not be available within 5 days of initiating drilling. Instead, Shell 
volunteers to provide to NMFS a ``rolling'' transmission of recorded 
drilling program sounds throughout the drilling program.
    Response: NMFS concurs that a ``rolling'' transmission of sound 
signatures is appropriate based on the fact that different activities 
will be conducted at various times throughout the open-water season. In 
order to capture all of the different sound signatures and for that 
data to be transmitted to NMFS, it is not appropriate to do it all in 
the first 5 days but rather to collect the data on a real-time basis. 
Spectrograms will be calculated daily, and all information will be 
included in a weekly report that discusses the drillship and vessel 
activities that occurred during the week. Language has been included in 
the IHA to reflect this weekly reporting requirement.
    Comment 69: Regarding Condition 10(c)(ii), Shell asks that the 
phrase ``to the extent practical'' precede the last sentence of the 
measure. Shell fully intends to deploy and execute the study as 
designed. However, conditional temporal and spatial factors, such as 
ice at the locations for deployment of acoustic recorders could cause 
some recorders to not be deployed or to be deployed at alternate 
locations.
    Response: NMFS has made the requested language change to the 
condition.
    Comment 70: Regarding Condition 11(d), Shell requests that the IHA 
stipulate that the comprehensive report be due 240 days from the end of 
the drilling season instead of 240 days from the date of issuance, 
since the IHA is being issued months before the start of the program.
    Response: NMFS agrees and has rewritten the condition to state that 
the comprehensive report is due 240 days from the date of expiration of 
the IHA (i.e., 240 days from October 31, 2012).

Description of Marine Mammals in the Area of the Specified Activity

    The Beaufort Sea supports a diverse assemblage of marine mammals, 
including: Bowhead, gray, beluga, killer (Orcinus orca), minke 
(Balaenoptera acutorostrata), and humpback (Megaptera novaeangliae) 
whales; harbor porpoises; ringed, ribbon, spotted, and bearded seals; 
narwhal; polar bears (Ursus maritimus); and walruses (Odobenus rosmarus 
divergens; see Table 4-1 in Shell's application). The bowhead and 
humpback whales are listed as ``endangered'' under the ESA and as 
depleted under the MMPA. Certain stocks or populations of gray, beluga, 
and killer whales and spotted seals are listed as endangered or are 
proposed for listing under the ESA; however, none of those stocks or 
populations occur in the activity area. On December 10, 2010, NMFS 
published a notice of proposed threatened status for subspecies of the 
ringed seal (75 FR 77476) and a notice of proposed threatened and not 
warranted status for subspecies and distinct population segments of the 
bearded seal (75 FR 77496) in the Federal Register. Neither of these 
two ice seal species is considered depleted under the MMPA. 
Additionally, the ribbon seal is considered a ``species of concern'' 
under the ESA. Both the walrus and the polar bear are managed by the 
USFWS and are not considered further in this IHA.
    Of these species, eight are expected to occur in the area of 
Shell's proposed operations. These species include: the bowhead, gray, 
and beluga whales, harbor porpoise, and the ringed, spotted, bearded, 
and ribbon seals. The marine mammal species that is likely to be 
encountered most widely (in space and time) throughout the period of 
the drilling program is the ringed seal. Bowhead whales are also 
anticipated to occur in the project area more frequently than the other 
cetacean species; however, their occurrence is not expected until later 
in the season. Even though harbor porpoise and ribbon seals are not 
typically sighted in Camden Bay, there have been recent sightings in 
the Beaufort Sea near the Prudhoe Bay area, so their occurrence could 
not be completely ruled out. Additional information about species 
occurrence in the project area was

[[Page 27302]]

provided in the Notice of Proposed IHA (76 FR 68974, November 7, 2011). 
Where available, Shell used density estimates from peer-reviewed 
literature in the application. In cases where density estimates were 
not readily available in the peer-reviewed literature, Shell used other 
methods to derive the estimates. NMFS reviewed the density estimate 
descriptions and articles from which estimates were derived and 
requested additional information to better explain the density 
estimates presented by Shell in its application. This additional 
information was included in the revised IHA application. The 
explanation for those derivations and the actual density estimates are 
described later in this document (see the ``Estimated Take by 
Incidental Harassment'' section).
    Shell's application contains information on the status, 
distribution, seasonal distribution, abundance, and life history of 
each of the species under NMFS jurisdiction mentioned in this document. 
When reviewing the application, NMFS determined that the species 
descriptions provided by Shell correctly characterized the status, 
distribution, seasonal distribution, and abundance of each species. 
Please refer to the application for that information (see ADDRESSES). 
Additional information can also be found in the NMFS SARs. The Alaska 
2010 and 2011 Draft SARs are available at: https://www.nmfs.noaa.gov/pr/pdfs/sars/ak2010.pdf and https://www.nmfs.noaa.gov/pr/pdfs/sars/ak2011_draft.pdf, respectively.

Brief Background on Marine Mammal Hearing

    When considering the influence of various kinds of sound on the 
marine environment, it is necessary to understand that different kinds 
of marine life are sensitive to different frequencies of sound. Based 
on available behavioral data, audiograms have been derived using 
auditory evoked potentials, anatomical modeling, and other data. 
Southall et al. (2007) designate ``functional hearing groups'' for 
marine mammals and estimate the lower and upper frequencies of 
functional hearing of the groups. The functional groups and the 
associated frequencies are indicated below (though animals are less 
sensitive to sounds at the outer edge of their functional range and 
most sensitive to sounds of frequencies within a smaller range 
somewhere in the middle of their functional hearing range):
     Low frequency cetaceans (13 species of mysticetes): 
Functional hearing is estimated to occur between approximately 7 Hz and 
22 kHz (however, a study by Au et al. (2006) of humpback whale songs 
indicate that the range may extend to at least 24 kHz);
     Mid-frequency cetaceans (32 species of dolphins, six 
species of larger toothed whales, and 19 species of beaked and 
bottlenose whales): Functional hearing is estimated to occur between 
approximately 150 Hz and 160 kHz;
     High frequency cetaceans (eight species of true porpoises, 
six species of river dolphins, Kogia, the franciscana, and four species 
of cephalorhynchids): Functional hearing is estimated to occur between 
approximately 200 Hz and 180 kHz; and
     Pinnipeds in Water: Functional hearing is estimated to 
occur between approximately 75 Hz and 75 kHz, with the greatest 
sensitivity between approximately 700 Hz and 20 kHz.
    As mentioned previously in this document, eight marine mammal 
species (four cetacean and four pinniped species) are likely to occur 
in the exploratory drilling area. Of the four cetacean species likely 
to occur in Shell's project area, two are classified as low frequency 
cetaceans (i.e., bowhead and gray whales), one is classified as a mid-
frequency cetacean (i.e., beluga whales), and one is classified as a 
high-frequency cetacean (i.e., harbor porpoise) (Southall et al., 
2007). Additional information regarding marine mammal hearing and sound 
production is contained in the Notice of Proposed IHA (76 FR 68974, 
November 7, 2011).

Potential Effects of the Specified Activity on Marine Mammals

    The likely or possible impacts of the exploratory drilling program 
in Camden Bay on marine mammals could involve both non-acoustic and 
acoustic effects. Potential non-acoustic effects could result from the 
physical presence of the equipment and personnel. Petroleum development 
and associated activities introduce sound into the marine environment. 
Impacts to marine mammals are expected to primarily be acoustic in 
nature. Potential acoustic effects on marine mammals relate to sound 
produced by drilling activity, vessels, and aircraft, as well as the 
ZVSP airgun array. The potential effects of sound from the exploratory 
drilling program might include one or more of the following: tolerance; 
masking of natural sounds; behavioral disturbance; non-auditory 
physical effects; and, at least in theory, temporary or permanent 
hearing impairment (Richardson et al., 1995a). However, for reasons 
discussed in the proposed IHA, it is unlikely that there would be any 
cases of temporary, or especially permanent, hearing impairment 
resulting from these activities.
    In the ``Potential Effects of the Specified Activity on Marine 
Mammals'' section of the Notice of Proposed IHA (76 FR 68974, November 
7, 2011), NMFS included a qualitative discussion of the different ways 
that Shell's 2012 Camden Bay exploratory drilling program may 
potentially affect marine mammals. That discussion focused on 
information and data regarding potential acoustic and non-acoustic 
effects from drilling activities (i.e., use of the drillship, 
icebreakers, and support vessels and aircraft) and use of airguns 
during ZVSP surveys. Marine mammals may experience masking and 
behavioral disturbance. The information contained in the ``Potential 
Effects of Specified Activities on Marine Mammals'' section from the 
proposed IHA has not changed. Please refer to the proposed IHA for the 
full discussion (76 FR 68974, November 7, 2011).

Exploratory Drilling Program and Potential for Oil Spill

    As noted above, the specified activity involves the drilling of 
exploratory wells and associated activities in the Beaufort Sea during 
the 2012 open-water season. The impacts to marine mammals that are 
reasonably expected to occur will be acoustic in nature. In response to 
previous IHA applications submitted by Shell, various entities have 
asserted that NMFS cannot authorize the take of marine mammals 
incidental to exploratory drilling under an IHA. Instead, they contend 
that incidental take can be allowed only with a letter of authorization 
(LOA) issued under five-year regulations because of the potential that 
an oil spill will cause serious injury or mortality.
    There are two avenues for authorizing incidental take of marine 
mammals under the MMPA. NMFS may, depending on the nature of the 
anticipated take, authorize the take of marine mammals incidental to a 
specified activity through regulations and LOAs or annual IHAs. See 16 
U.S.C. 1371(a)(5)(A) and (D). In general, regulations (accompanied by 
LOAs) may be issued for any type of take (e.g., Level B harassment 
(behavioral disturbance), Level A harassment (injury), serious injury, 
or mortality), whereas IHAs are limited to activities that result only 
in harassment (e.g., behavioral disturbance or injury). Following the 
1994 MMPA Amendments, NMFS promulgated implementing regulations 
governing the issuance of IHAs in Arctic waters. See 60 FR 28379 (May 
31, 1995) and 61 FR

[[Page 27303]]

15884 (April 10, 1996). NMFS stated in the preamble of the proposed 
rulemaking that the scope of IHAs would be limited to ``* * * those 
authorizations for harassment involving incidental harassment that may 
involve non-serious injury.'' See 60 FR 28380 (May 31, 1995; emphasis 
added); 50 CFR 216.107(a). (``[e]xcept for activities that have the 
potential to result in serious injury or mortality, which must be 
authorized under 216.105, incidental harassment authorizations may be 
issued, * * * to allowed activities that may result in only the 
incidental harassment of a small number of marine mammals.''). NMFS 
explained further that applications would be reviewed to determine 
whether the activity would result in more than harassment and if so, 
the agency would either (1) attempt to negate the potential for serious 
injury through mitigation requirements, or (2) deny the incidental 
harassment authorization and require the applicant to apply for 
incidental take regulations. See id. at 28380-81.
    NMFS' determination of whether the type of incidental take 
authorization requested is appropriate occurs shortly after the 
applicant submits an application for an incidental take authorization. 
The agency evaluates the proposed action and all information contained 
in the application to determine whether it is adequate and complete and 
whether the type of taking requested is appropriate. See 50 CFR 
216.104; see also 60 FR 28380 (May 31, 1995). Among other things, NMFS 
considers the specific activity or class of activities that can 
reasonably be expected to result in incidental take; the type of 
incidental take authorization that is being requested; and the 
anticipated impact of the activity upon the species or stock and its 
habitat. See id. at 216.104(a). (emphasis added). Any application that 
is determined to be incomplete or inappropriate for the type of taking 
requested will be returned to the applicant with an explanation of why 
the application is being returned. See id. Finally, NMFS evaluates the 
best available science to determine whether a proposed activity is 
reasonably expected or likely to result in serious injury or mortality.
    NMFS evaluated Shell's incidental take application for its proposed 
2012 drilling activities in light of the foregoing criteria and has 
concluded that Shell's request for an IHA is warranted. Shell submitted 
information with its IHA Application indicating that an oil spill 
(large or very large oil spill) is highly unlikely and thus not 
reasonably expected to occur during the course of exploration drilling 
or ZVSP surveys. See Camden Bay IHA Application, pp. 3 and Attachment 
E-- Analysis of the Probability of an ``Unspecified Activity'' and Its 
Impacts: Oil Spill. In addition, Shell's 2012 Exploration Plan, which 
was conditionally approved by the Department of the Interior, indicates 
there is a ``very low likelihood of a large oil spill event.'' See 
Shell Offshore, Inc.'s Revised Outer Continental Shelf Lease 
Exploration Plan, Camden Bay, Beaufort Sea, Alaska (May 2011), at p. 8-
1; see also, Appendix F to Shell's Revised Outer Continental Shelf 
Lease Exploration Plan, at p. 4-174; see also, Beaufort Sea Planning 
Area Environmental Assessment for Shell Offshore, Inc.'s 2012 Revised 
Outer Continental Shelf Lease Exploration Plan (August 2011).
    The likelihood of a large or very large (i.e. >=1,000 barrels or 
>=150,000 barrels, respectively) oil spill occurring during Shell's 
proposed program has been estimated to be low. A total of 35 
exploration wells have been drilled between 1982 and 2003 in the 
Chukchi and Beaufort seas, and there have been no blowouts. In 
addition, no blowouts have occurred from the approximately 98 
exploration wells drilled within the Alaskan OCS (MMS, 2007a; BOEMRE, 
2011). Attachment E in Shell's IHA Application contains information 
regarding the probability of an oil spill occurring during the proposed 
program and the potential impacts should one occur. Based on modeling 
conducted by Bercha (2008), the predicted frequency of an exploration 
well oil spill in waters similar to those in Camden Bay, Beaufort Sea, 
Alaska, is 0.000612 per well for a blowout sized between 10,000 barrels 
(bbl) to 149,000 bbl and 0.000354 per well for a blowout greater than 
150,000 bbl. Please refer to Shell's application for additional 
information on the model and predicted frequencies (see ADDRESSES).
    Shell has implemented several design standards and practices to 
reduce the already low probability of an oil spill occurring as part of 
its operations. The wells proposed to be drilled in the Arctic are 
exploratory and will not be converted to production wells; thus, 
production casing will not be installed, and the well will be 
permanently plugged and abandoned once exploration drilling is 
complete. Shell has also developed and will implement the following 
plans and protocols: Shell's Critical Operations Curtailment Plan; IMP; 
Well Control Plan; and Fuel Transfer Plan. Many of these safety 
measures are required by DOI's interim final rule implementing certain 
measures to improve the safety of oil and gas exploration and 
development on the OCS in light of the Deepwater Horizon event (see 75 
FR 63346, October 14, 2010). Operationally, Shell has committed to the 
following to help prevent an oil spill from occurring in the Beaufort 
Sea:
     Shell's Blow Out Preventer (BOP) was inspected and tested 
by an independent third party specialist;
     Further inspection and testing of the BOP have been 
performed to ensure the reliability of the BOP and that all functions 
will be performed as necessary, including shearing the drill pipe;
     Subsea BOP hydrostatic tests will be increased from once 
every 14 days to once every 7 days;
     A second set of blind/shear rams will be installed in the 
BOP stack;
     Full string casings will typically not be installed 
through high pressure zones;
     Liners will be installed and cemented, which allows for 
installation of a liner top packer;
     Testing of liners prior to installing a tieback string of 
casing back to the wellhead;
     Utilizing a two-barrier policy; and
     Testing of all casing hangers to ensure that they have two 
independent, validated barriers at all times.
    NMFS has considered Shell's proposed action and has concluded that 
there is no reasonable likelihood of serious injury or mortality from 
the 2012 Camden Bay exploration drilling program. NMFS has consistently 
interpreted the term ``potential,'' as used in 50 CFR 216.107(a), to 
only include impacts that have more than a discountable probability of 
occurring, that is, impacts must be reasonably expected to occur. 
Hence, NMFS has regularly issued IHAs in cases where it found that the 
potential for serious injury or mortality was ``highly unlikely'' (See 
73 FR 40512, 40514, July 15, 2008; 73 FR 45969, 45971, August 7, 2008; 
73 FR 46774, 46778, August 11, 2008; 73 FR 66106, 66109, November 6, 
2008; 74 FR 55368, 55371, October 27, 2009).
    Interpreting ``potential'' to include impacts with any probability 
of occurring (i.e., speculative or extremely low probability events) 
would nearly preclude the issuance of IHAs in every instance. For 
example, NMFS would be unable to issue an IHA whenever vessels were 
involved in the marine activity since there is always some, albeit 
remote, possibility that a vessel could strike and seriously injure or 
kill a marine mammal. This would be inconsistent with the dual-
permitting scheme Congress created and

[[Page 27304]]

undesirable from a policy perspective, as limited agency resources 
would be used to issue regulations that provide no additional benefit 
to marine mammals beyond what can be achieved with an IHA.
    Despite concluding that the risk of serious injury or mortality 
from an oil spill in this case is extremely remote, NMFS nonetheless 
evaluated the potential effects of an oil spill on marine mammals. 
While an oil spill is not a component of Shell's specified activity, 
potential impacts on marine mammals from an oil spill are discussed in 
more detail in the Notice of Proposed IHA (76 FR 68974, November 7, 
2011) and NMFS' EA. Please refer to those documents for the discussion.

Anticipated Effects on Marine Mammal Habitat

    The primary potential impacts to marine mammals and other marine 
species are associated with elevated sound levels produced by the 
exploratory drilling program (i.e. the drillship and the airguns). 
However, other potential impacts are also possible to the surrounding 
habitat from physical disturbance and an oil spill (should one occur). 
The proposed IHA contains a full discussion of the potential impacts to 
marine mammal habitat and prey species in the project area. No changes 
have been made to that discussion. Please refer to the proposed IHA for 
the full discussion of potential impacts to marine mammal habitat (76 
FR 68974, November 7, 2011). NMFS has determined that Shell's 
exploratory drilling program is not expected to have any habitat-
related effects that could cause significant or long-term consequences 
for marine mammals or on the food sources that they utilize.

Mitigation

    In order to issue an incidental take authorization (ITA) under 
Sections 101(a)(5)(A) and (D) of the MMPA, NMFS must, where applicable, 
set forth the permissible methods of taking pursuant to such activity, 
and other means of effecting the least practicable impact on such 
species or stock and its habitat, paying particular attention to 
rookeries, mating grounds, and areas of similar significance, and on 
the availability of such species or stock for taking for certain 
subsistence uses (where relevant). This section summarizes the contents 
of Shell's Marine Mammal Monitoring and Mitigation Plan (4MP).

Operational Mitigation Measures

    Shell submitted a 4MP as part of its application (Attachment C; see 
ADDRESSES). Shell submitted a revised 4MP after the plan was reviewed 
by an independent peer review panel (see the ``Monitoring Plan Peer 
Review'' section for additional details). The revised plan is also 
available to the public (see ADDRESSES). The planned offshore drilling 
program incorporates both design features and operational procedures 
for minimizing potential impacts on marine mammals and on subsistence 
hunts. The design features and operational procedures have been 
described in the IHA and LOA applications submitted to NMFS and USFWS, 
respectively, and are summarized here. Survey design features include:
     Timing and locating drilling and support activities to 
avoid interference with the annual fall bowhead whale hunts from 
Kaktovik, Nuiqsut (Cross Island), and Barrow;
     Identifying transit routes and timing to avoid other 
subsistence use areas and communicating with coastal communities before 
operating in or passing through these areas;
     Conducting pre-season sound propagation modeling to 
establish the appropriate exclusion and behavioral radii; and
     Modifications to the Kulluk to reduce sound propagation 
into the water (as described in greater detail earlier in this 
document).
    Shell indicates, and we agree, that the potential disturbance of 
marine mammals during operations will be minimized further through the 
implementation of several ship-based mitigation measures, which include 
establishing and monitoring safety and disturbance zones, vessel 
operation protocols, and shutting down activities for a portion of the 
open-water season.
    Exclusion radii for marine mammals around sound sources are 
customarily defined as the distances within which received sound levels 
are greater than or equal to 180 dB re 1 [mu]Pa (rms) for cetaceans and 
greater than or equal to 190 dB re 1 [mu]Pa (rms) for pinnipeds. These 
exclusion criteria are based on an assumption that sounds at lower 
received levels will not injure these animals or impair their hearing 
abilities, but that higher received levels might have such effects. It 
should be understood that marine mammals inside these exclusion zones 
will not necessarily be injured, as the received sound thresholds which 
determine these zones were established prior to the current 
understanding that significantly higher levels of sound would be 
required before injury could occur (see Southall et al., 2007). With 
respect to Level B harassment, NMFS' practice has been to apply the 120 
dB re 1 [mu]Pa (rms) received level threshold for underwater continuous 
sound levels and the 160 dB re 1 [mu]Pa (rms) received level threshold 
for underwater impulsive sound levels.
    Shell proposes to monitor the various radii in order to implement 
any mitigation measures that may be necessary. Initial radii for the 
sound levels produced by the Kulluk and Discoverer, the icebreaker, and 
the airguns have been modeled. Sounds from the Kulluk have previously 
been measured in the Beaufort Sea (Greene, 1987a; Miles et al., 1987). 
The broadband back-propagated source level estimated by Greene (1987a) 
from these measurements was 185 dB re 1 [mu]Pa rms. These measurements 
were used as a proxy for modeling the sounds likely to be produced by 
exploration drilling activities from the Kulluk (Zykov and Hannay, 
2007). Measurements taken by Austin and Warner (2010) indicated 
broadband source levels between 177 and 185 dB re 1 [mu]Pa rms for the 
Discoverer. Measurements of the icebreaking supply ship Robert Lemeur 
pushing and breaking ice during exploration drilling operations in the 
Beaufort Sea in 1986 resulted in an estimated broadband source level of 
193 dB re 1 [mu]Pa rms (Greene, 1987a; Richardson et al., 1995a). Based 
on a similar airgun array used in the shallow waters of the Beaufort 
Sea in 2008 by BP, the source level of the airgun is predicted to be 
241.4 dB re 1 [mu]Pa rms. Once on location in Camden Bay, Shell will 
conduct SSV tests to establish safety zones for the previously 
mentioned sound level criteria. The objectives of the SSV tests are: 
(1) To quantify the absolute sound levels produced by drilling and to 
monitor their variations with time, distance, and direction from the 
drillship; and (2) to measure the sound levels produced by vessels 
operating in support of exploration drilling operations, which include 
crew change vessels, tugs, ice-management vessels, and spill response 
vessels. The methodology for conducting the SSV tests is fully 
described in Shell's 4MP (see ADDRESSES). Please refer to that document 
for further details. Upon completion of the SSV tests, the new radii 
will be established and monitored, and mitigation measures will be 
implemented in accordance with Shell's 4MP.
    Based on the best available scientific literature, the source 
levels noted earlier in this document and in Shell's 4MP for the 
drillships are not high enough to cause a temporary reduction in 
hearing sensitivity or permanent hearing damage to marine mammals.

[[Page 27305]]

Consequently, Shell believes that mitigation as described for seismic 
activities including ramp ups, power downs, and shutdowns should not be 
necessary for drilling activities. NMFS has also determined that these 
types of mitigation measures, traditionally required for seismic survey 
operations, are not practical or necessary for this drilling activity. 
Seismic airgun arrays can be turned on slowly (i.e., only turning on 
one or some guns at a time) and powered down quickly. The types of 
sound sources used for exploratory drilling have different properties 
and are unable to be ``powered down'' like airgun arrays or shutdown 
instantaneously without posing other risks to operational and human 
safety. However, Shell plans to use PSOs (formerly referred to as 
marine mammal observers) onboard the drillship and the various support 
vessels to monitor marine mammals and their responses to industry 
activities and to initiate mitigation measures should in-field 
measurements of the operations indicate that such measures are 
necessary. Additional details on the PSO program are described in the 
``Monitoring and Reporting'' section found later in this document. 
Also, for the ZVSP activities, Shell will implement standard mitigation 
procedures, such as ramp ups, power downs, and shutdowns.
    A ramp up of an airgun array provides a gradual increase in sound 
levels and involves a step-wise increase in the number and total volume 
of airguns firing until the full volume is achieved. The purpose of a 
ramp up (or ``soft start'') is to ``warn'' cetaceans and pinnipeds in 
the vicinity of the airguns and to provide the time for them to leave 
the area and thus avoid any potential injury or impairment of their 
hearing abilities.
    During the ZVSP surveys, Shell will ramp up the airgun arrays 
slowly. Full ramp ups (i.e., from a cold start when no airguns have 
been firing) will begin by firing a single airgun in the array. A full 
ramp up will not begin until there has been a minimum of 30 minutes of 
observation of the 180-dB and 190-dB exclusion zones for cetaceans and 
pinnipeds, respectively, by PSOs to assure that no marine mammals are 
present. The entire exclusion zone must be visible during the 30-
minutes lead-in to a full ramp up. If the entire exclusion zone is not 
visible, then ramp up from a cold start cannot begin. If a marine 
mammal(s) is sighted within the exclusion zone during the 30-minute 
watch prior to ramp up, ramp up will be delayed until the marine 
mammal(s) is sighted outside of the applicable exclusion zone or the 
animal(s) is not sighted for at least 15 minutes for small odontocetes 
and pinnipeds or 30 minutes for baleen whales.
    A power down is the immediate reduction in the number of operating 
energy sources from all firing to some smaller number. A shutdown is 
the immediate cessation of firing of all energy sources. The arrays 
will be immediately powered down whenever a marine mammal is sighted 
approaching close to or within the applicable exclusion zone of the 
full arrays but is outside the applicable exclusion zone of the single 
source. If a marine mammal is sighted within the applicable exclusion 
zone of the single energy source, the entire array will be shutdown 
(i.e., no sources firing). The same 15 and 30 minute sighting times 
described for ramp up also apply to starting the airguns again after 
either a power down or shutdown.
    Additional mitigation measures include: (1) Reducing speed and/or 
changing course if a whale is sighted within 300 yards (274 m) from a 
vessel; (2) reducing speed in inclement weather; (3) checking the water 
immediately adjacent to the vessel(s) to ensure that no whales will be 
injured when the propellers are engaged; (4) resuming full activity 
(e.g., full support vessel speed) only after marine mammals are 
confirmed to be outside the safety zone; (5) implementing flight 
restrictions prohibiting aircraft from flying below 1,500 ft (457 m) 
altitude (except during marine mammal monitoring, takeoffs and 
landings, or in emergency situations); and (6) keeping vessels anchored 
when approached by marine mammals to avoid the potential for avoidance 
reactions by such animals.
    Shell will also implement additional mitigation measures to ensure 
no unmitigable adverse impact on the availability of affected species 
or stocks for taking for subsistence uses. Those measures are described 
in the ``Impact on Availability of Affected Species or Stock for Taking 
for Subsistence Uses'' section found later in this document.

Oil Spill Response Plan

    In accordance with BSEE regulations, Shell developed an OSRP for 
its Camden Bay exploration drilling program. A copy of this document 
can be found on the Internet at: https://www.bsee.gov/OSRP/Beaufort-Sea-OSRP.aspx. Additionally, in its POC, Shell has agreed to several 
mitigation measures in order to reduce impacts during the response 
efforts in the unlikely event of an oil spill. Those measures are 
detailed in the ``Plan of Cooperation (POC)'' section found later in 
this document. In the unlikely event of a spill, Shell has also agreed 
to operate, to the maximum extent practicable, in accordance with 
NOAA's Marine Mammal Oil Spill Response Guidelines, which are available 
on the Internet at: https://www.nmfs.noaa.gov/pr/pdfs/health/eis_appendixl.pdf. BSEE issued approval of Shell's Beaufort Sea OSRP on 
March 28, 2012. That approval was issued after review of the plan by 
BSEE in cooperation with other Federal and state agency partners, 
including NOAA. Many of the changes to the approved OSRP reflect 
comments from NOAA, such as revising the worst case discharge scenario 
and providing trajectories of the worst case discharge over a 30-day 
period instead of a 72-hour period.
    NMFS has carefully evaluated Shell's proposed mitigation measures 
and considered a range of other measures in the context of ensuring 
that NMFS prescribes the means of effecting the least practicable 
impact on the affected marine mammal species and stocks and their 
habitat. Our evaluation of potential measures included consideration of 
the following factors in relation to one another:
     The manner in which, and the degree to which, the 
successful implementation of the measure is expected to minimize 
adverse impacts to marine mammals;
     The proven or likely efficacy of the specific measure to 
minimize adverse impacts as planned; and
     The practicability of the measure for applicant 
implementation.
    Measures to ensure availability of such species or stock for taking 
for certain subsistence uses are discussed later in this document (see 
``Impact on Availability of Affected Species or Stock for Taking for 
Subsistence Uses'' section).

Monitoring and Reporting

    In order to issue an ITA for an activity, Section 101(a)(5)(D) of 
the MMPA states that NMFS must, where applicable, set forth 
``requirements pertaining to the monitoring and reporting of such 
taking''. The MMPA implementing regulations at 50 CFR 216.104 (a)(13) 
indicate that requests for ITAs must include the suggested means of 
accomplishing the necessary monitoring and reporting that will result 
in increased knowledge of the species and of the level of taking or 
impacts on populations of marine mammals that are expected to be 
present in the action area.

Monitoring Measures

    The monitoring plan proposed by Shell in the IHA application can be

[[Page 27306]]

found in the 4MP (Attachment C of Shell's application; see ADDRESSES). 
Shell's revised 4MP is also available to the public (see ADDRESSES). 
The plan was modified based on comments received from the peer review 
panel (see the ``Monitoring Plan Peer Review'' section later in this 
document). A summary of the primary components of the plan can be found 
in the Notice of Proposed IHA (76 FR 68974, November 7, 2011). A 
shorter description is contained here, with only components of the 4MP 
that have been modified summarized in greater detail here.
(1) Vessel-Based PSOs
    Vessel-based monitoring for marine mammals will be done by trained 
PSOs throughout the period of drilling operations on all vessels. PSOs 
will monitor the occurrence and behavior of marine mammals near the 
drillship during all daylight periods during operation and during most 
daylight periods when drilling operations are not occurring. PSO duties 
will include watching for and identifying marine mammals, recording 
their numbers, distances, and reactions to the drilling operations. A 
sufficient number of PSOs will be required onboard each vessel to meet 
the following criteria: (1) 100% monitoring coverage during all periods 
of drilling operations in daylight; (2) maximum of 4 consecutive hours 
on watch per PSO; and (3) maximum of 12 hours of watch time per day per 
PSO. Shell anticipates that there will be provision for crew rotation 
at least every 3-6 weeks to avoid observer fatigue.
    PSOs will watch for marine mammals from the best available vantage 
point on the drillship and support vessels. Maximizing time with eyes 
on the water is strongly promoted during training and is a goal of the 
PSO program. Each ship will have voice recorders available to PSOs. 
This will allow PSOs to remain focused on the water in situations where 
a number of sightings occur together. Additionally, Shell has 
transitioned entirely to real-time electronic data recording and 
automated as much of the process as possible to minimize time spent 
recording data as opposed to focusing eyes on the water.
    PSOs are instructed to identify animals as unknown when appropriate 
rather than strive to identify an animal when there is significant 
uncertainty. Shell also asks that they provide any sightings cues they 
used and any distinguishable features of the animal even if they are 
not able to identify the animal and record it as unidentified. Emphasis 
is also placed on recording what was not seen, such as dorsal features.
    PSOs will be able to plot sightings in near real-time for their 
vessel. Significant sightings from key vessels (drill rigs, ice 
management, anchor handlers and aircraft) will be relayed between 
platforms to keep observers aware of animals that may be in or near the 
area but may not be visible to the observer at any one time. Emphasis 
will be placed on relaying sightings with the greatest potential to 
involve mitigation or reconsideration of a vessel's course (e.g., large 
group of bowheads, walruses on ice). Data will also be collected to 
further evaluate night vision equipment.
(2) Aerial Survey Program
    Shell proposes to conduct an aerial survey program in support of 
the drilling program in the Beaufort Sea during the summer and fall of 
2012. Shell's objectives for this program include:
    (A) To advise operating vessels as to the presence of marine 
mammals (primarily cetaceans) in the general area of operation;
    (B) To collect and report data on the distribution, numbers, 
movement and behavior of marine mammals near the exploration drilling 
operations with special emphasis on migrating bowhead whales;
    (C) To support regulatory reporting related to the estimation of 
impacts of exploration drilling operations on marine mammals;
    (D) To investigate potential deflection of bowhead whales during 
migration by documenting how far east of exploration drilling 
operations a deflection may occur and where whales return to normal 
migration patterns west of the operations;
    (E) To collect marine mammal sighting data using both PSOs and 
digital media, and after the field season, to compare the data recorded 
by the two methods; and
    (F) To monitor the accessibility of bowhead whales to Inupiat 
hunters.
    Aerial survey flights will begin 5 to 7 days before operations at 
the exploration well sites get underway. Surveys will be flown daily 
throughout drilling operations, weather and flight conditions 
permitting, and continue for 5 to 7 days after all activities at the 
site have ended. Since drafting the original 4MP in May 2011, Shell has 
agreed to add digital cameras and high definition (HD) video cameras on 
the survey aircraft to capture imagery that can later be compared to 
data collected by the PSOs.
    Two primary observers will be seated at bubble windows on either 
side of the aircraft, and a third observer will observe part time and 
record data the rest of the time. In a change to the original 4MP, 
Shell will place a fourth observer on the aircraft. That PSO will rest 
when not at one of the three positions noted here. PSOs will rotate 
among the four positions so that individual observers do not observe 
for longer than 2 hrs continuously. All observers will be seated at 
bubble windows to facilitate downward viewing. The fifth observer will 
serve as an ice observer and will record data pertinent to Shell's ice 
observation program. For each marine mammal sighting, the observer will 
dictate the species, number, size/age/sex class when determinable, 
activity, heading, swimming speed category (if traveling), sighting 
cue, ice conditions (type and percentage), and inclinometer reading to 
the marine mammal into a digital recorder. The inclinometer reading 
will be taken when the animal's location is 90[deg] to the side of the 
aircraft track, allowing calculation of lateral distance from the 
aircraft trackline.
    DSLR and video cameras will be operated during all aerial surveys 
in the Beaufort Sea during 2012 and will collect imagery along the 
trackline concurrent with observations being made by PSOs. Data 
collected during these surveys will permit comparisons between data 
obtained by PSOs vs. those that can be obtained from digital still 
images and video. The rationale for this component of the study is to 
validate the ability of the sensors to collect high quality data that 
will be collected using unmanned aerial surveys (UAS) in the future and 
to obtain information on possible biases of future UAS-collected data 
in comparison to manned surveys. The cameras will also provide high 
resolution information on sea and ice conditions during the survey, 
which can be used to supplement and validate data recorded by PSOs.
(3) Acoustic Monitoring
    Shell will conduct SSV tests to establish the isopleths for the 
applicable exclusion radii, mostly to be employed during the ZVSP 
surveys. In addition, Shell will use acoustic recorders to study 
bowhead deflections.
    Drilling Sound Measurements--Drilling sounds are expected to vary 
significantly with time due to variations in the level of operations 
and the different types of equipment used at different times onboard 
the Kulluk or Discoverer. The objectives of these measurements are to:
    (1) Quantify the absolute sound levels produced by drilling and to 
monitor their variations with time, distance, and direction from the 
drilling vessel;

[[Page 27307]]

    (2) Measure the sound levels produced by vessels operating in 
support of exploration drilling operations. These vessels will include 
crew change vessels, tugs, icebreakers, and OSRVs; and
    (3) Measure the sound levels produced by an end-of-hole ZVSP 
survey, using a stationary sound source.
    The Kulluk or Discoverer, support vessels, and ZVSP sound 
measurements will be performed using one of two methods, both of which 
involve real-time monitoring. Since drafting the original 4MP in 2011, 
Shell and NMFS have agreed that spectrograms will be calculated daily, 
and all information will be included in a weekly report that discusses 
drillship and vessel activities that occurred during the week.
    Vessel sound characterizations will be performed using dedicated 
recorders deployed at sufficient distance from drilling operations so 
that sound produced by those activities does not interfere. Three AMAR 
autonomous acoustic recorders will be deployed on and perpendicular to 
a sail track on which all Shell vessels will transit. The deployment 
geometry will be as shown in Figure 4 in Shell's April 2012 4MP. This 
geometry is designed to obtain sound level measurements as a function 
of distance and direction. The fore and aft directions are sampled 
continuously over longer distances to 3.1 and 6.2 mi (5 and 10 km) 
respectively, while broadside and other directions are sampled as the 
vessels pass closer to the recorders. Additional details can be found 
in Shell's 4MP.
    Acoustic Study of Bowhead Call Distribution--Shell plans to deploy 
arrays of acoustic recorders in the Beaufort Sea in 2012, similar to 
that which was done in 2007-2011 using Directional Autonomous Seafloor 
Acoustic Recorders (DASARs). These directional acoustic systems permit 
localization of bowhead whale and other marine mammal vocalizations. 
The purpose of the array will be to further understand, define, and 
document sound characteristics and propagation resulting from vessel-
based exploration drilling operations that may have the potential to 
cause deflections of bowhead whales from their migratory pathway. Of 
particular interest will be the east-west extent changes in call 
distribution, if any. In other words, how far east or west of a sound 
source can changes in the distribution of calls be detected? Similarly, 
will the presence of a sound source result in a shift of calling whales 
offshore or toward shore?
    Using passive acoustics with directional autonomous recorders, the 
locations of calling whales will be observed for a 6- to 10-week 
continuous monitoring period at five coastal sites (subject to 
favorable ice and weather conditions). Essential to achieving this 
objective is the continuous measurement of sound levels near the 
drillship.
    Shell plans to conduct the whale migration monitoring using the 
passive acoustics techniques developed and used successfully since 2001 
for monitoring the migration past Northstar production island northwest 
of Prudhoe Bay and from Kaktovik to Harrison Bay during the 2007-2011 
migrations. Those techniques involve using DASARs to measure the 
arrival angles of bowhead calls at known locations, then triangulating 
to locate the calling whale.
    In attempting to assess the responses of bowhead whales to the 
planned industrial operations, it will be essential to monitor whale 
locations at sites both near and far from industry activities. Shell 
plans to monitor at five sites along the Alaskan Beaufort coast as 
shown in Figure 8 of Shell's April 2012 4MP. The sites are the same as 
used since 2007, but the layout of the DASAR recorders will be somewhat 
different from previous years in order to improve the ability to detect 
calls during the drilling operations. The eastern-most site (5 
in Figure 8 of the April 2012 4MP) is just east of Kaktovik 
(approximately 62 mi [100 km] west of the Sivulliq drilling area) and 
the western-most site (1 in Figure 8 of the 4MP) is in the 
vicinity of Harrison Bay (approximately 112 mi [180 km] west of 
Sivulliq). Site 2 is located west of Prudhoe Bay (approximately 73 mi 
[117 km] west of Sivulliq). Site 4 is approximately 10 mi (16 km) east 
of the Sivulliq drilling area, and site 3 is approximately 20 mi (32 
km) west of Sivulliq.
    In 2007-2011, each array was comprised of seven DASARs oriented in 
a north-south pattern so that five equilateral triangles with 4.3-mi 
(7-km) element spacing was achieved. In 2012, the following changes are 
planned in the DASAR layout of sites 1 and 4:
     At site 1 the three adjacent DASARs that have detected the 
most calls in 2007-2011 (1D, 1E, and 1F) will be kept in place to 
continue collecting data that can be compared with previous years. The 
remaining four DASARs (1A, 1B, 1C, and 1G) will be moved to site 4. 
These four low-performance DASAR locations have, on average (2007-
2011), detected as little as 1/100th of the calls detected at high-
performance locations; and
     At site 4 the four central DASARs (4A, 4C, 4E, and 4G) 
will be moved to their mirror-image position east of DASARs 4B, 4D, and 
4F. This is shown in Figures 8 and 9 of Shell's April 2012 4MP. The 
main reason for doing this is to improve the ability to detect whale 
calls by placing these DASARs farther away from the drilling operation, 
where background sound levels will likely be lower. The four DASARs 
removed from site 1 will be added to the northern end of site 4 (4J, 
4K, 4L, and 4M in Figure 9 in Shell's 4MP). This will improve the 
detection of calls from whales that choose a more northern route while 
migrating westward past the drilling operation.
    In another change from the original 4MP, a small array of three 
DASARs with 1.25 mi (2 km) spacing--referred to as a triplet--will be 
deployed northwest of each drillsite, with the closest DASAR 3.7 mi (6 
km) from the drillship. When and if the drillship is moved to another 
site, the triplet of DASARs will be retrieved and redeployed in the 
same relative locations. The triplets are shown in Figure 9 of Shell's 
April 2012 4MP as small brown triangles. Additional details are 
contained in Shell's April 2012 4MP (see ADDRESSES).

Monitoring Plan Peer Review

    The MMPA requires that monitoring plans be independently peer 
reviewed ``where the proposed activity may affect the availability of a 
species or stock for taking for subsistence uses'' (16 U.S.C. 
1371(a)(5)(D)(ii)(III)). Regarding this requirement, NMFS' implementing 
regulations state, ``Upon receipt of a complete monitoring plan, and at 
its discretion, [NMFS] will either submit the plan to members of a peer 
review panel for review or within 60 days of receipt of the proposed 
monitoring plan, schedule a workshop to review the plan'' (50 CFR 
216.108(d)).
    NMFS convened an independent peer review panel, comprised of 
experts in the fields of marine mammal ecology and underwater 
acoustics, to review Shell's 4MP for Exploration Drilling of Selected 
Lease Areas in the Alaskan Beaufort Sea in 2012. The panel met on 
January 5-6, 2012, and provided their final report to NMFS on January 
27, 2012. The full panel report can be viewed on the Internet at: 
https://www.nmfs.noaa.gov/pr/pdfs/permits/openwater/peer_review_report_shell_beaufort.pdf.
    NMFS provided the panel with Shell's 4MP and asked the panel to 
answer the following questions regarding the plan:
    (1) Will the applicant's stated objectives effectively further the 
understanding of the impacts of their activities on marine mammals and 
otherwise accomplish the goals stated above? If not, how should the 
objectives

[[Page 27308]]

be modified to better accomplish the goals above?
    (2) Can the applicant achieve the stated objectives based on the 
methods described in the plan?
    (3) Are there technical modifications to the proposed monitoring 
techniques and methodologies proposed by the applicant that should be 
considered to better accomplish their stated objectives?
    (4) Are there techniques not proposed by the applicant (i.e., 
additional monitoring techniques or methodologies) that should be 
considered for inclusion in the applicant's monitoring program to 
better accomplish their stated objectives?
    (5) What is the best way for an applicant to present their data and 
results (formatting, metrics, graphics, etc.) in the required reports 
that are to be submitted to NMFS (i.e., 90-day report and comprehensive 
report)?
    Prior to meeting with the panel, Shell reviewed the final reports 
of the 2010 and 2011 peer review panels, as Shell's 2010 proposed 
drilling activities were reviewed by the 2010 panel before the program 
was ultimately cancelled and both reports contained general 
recommendations. In its presentation to the 2012 panel, Shell discussed 
suggested modifications and revisions to the 4MP submitted to NMFS in 
September 2011 and provided to the panel for review. The panel's final 
report includes recommendations both on the contents of the September 
2011 4MP and the modifications presented at the meeting in January 
2012.
    NMFS has reviewed the report and evaluated all recommendations made 
by the panel and has determined there are several measures that Shell 
can incorporate into its 2012 Camden Bay exploratory drilling program 
4MP to improve it. The panel recommendations determined by NMFS that 
are appropriate for inclusion in the 2012 program have been discussed 
with Shell and are included in the IHA, as appropriate. A summary of 
the recommendations that have been incorporated into Shell's revised 
Camden Bay 4MP is provided next.
(1) Vessel-Based Monitoring Measures
     Within safe limits, the PSOs should be stationed where 
they have the best possible viewing. Viewing may not always be best 
from the ship bridge, and in some cases may be best from higher 
positions with less visual obstructions (e.g., flying bridge).
     The PSOs should be instructed to identify animals as 
unknown where appropriate rather than strive to identify a species if 
there is significant uncertainty.
     Sampling of the relative near[hyphen]field around 
operations must be corrected for effort to provide the best possible 
estimates of marine mammals in safety and exposure zones.
     The PSOs should maximize their time with eyes on the 
water. This may require new means of recording data (e.g., audio 
recorder) or the presence of a data recorder so that the observers can 
simply relay information to them.
     It would be useful if the PSOs or recorders have GIS 
software available to plot marine mammals sighted and vessel position 
on a real[hyphen]time basis.
     Shell should develop a plan for real[hyphen]time, 
inter[hyphen]vessel communication of animal positions when multiple 
vessels are operating in an area.
     Continued testing and development to improve marine mammal 
detection capabilities when sighting conditions are poor is needed 
(e.g., nighttime, high sea states, inclement weather).
     Apply appropriate statistical procedures for probability 
estimation of marine mammals missed based on observational data 
acquired during some period of time before and after night and fog 
events.
     Panel members made a recommendation regarding independence 
in the hiring, training, and debriefing of PSOs. In support of that 
recommendation, NMFS recommends that Shell provide its daily PSO logs 
to NMFS throughout the operating season.
(2) Acoustic Monitoring
     If a mitigation gun is used during the stationary zero-
offset vertical seismic surveys around the drilling sites, a reduced 
duty cycle (e.g., 1 shot/min) would be appropriate.
     Once source characterization and verification measurements 
are obtained (including better resolution on directionality, as 
discussed below), propagation models should be rerun to provide better 
spatial footprints on which to base mitigation zones.
     Shell should consider the potential integration of visual 
and acoustic data from the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas monitoring 
programs and the Joint Science Program to produce estimates of bowhead, 
beluga, and walrus density using methods developed in the DECAF project 
by the Center for Research into Ecological and Environmental Modeling 
(CREEM) at the University of St. Andrews in Scotland.
     The panel supports the rearrangement of the DASARs and 
addition of targeted triplets around the (changing) location of 
drilling operations that was presented to the panel on January 5, 2012. 
This arrangement differs from what is described in the September 2011 
monitoring plan.
(3) Aerial Survey Program
     Aerial surveys should maintain line transects and not 
circle to verify cow/calf pairs.
     Conditions allowing, it is recommended that the direction 
of flight be determined randomly instead of always flying west-to-east. 
A randomized approach of where to start flying line transects is 
suggested.
     In terms of the experimental use of photography and video 
to augment human observers in aerial surveys, the panel emphasizes the 
use of similar methods and equipment throughout the season to ensure 
data consistency and comparability. The panel also recommends that, if 
the aircraft is able to fly at 1,000 ft (305 m) or below, the surveys 
always use 20 mm lenses (rather than 100 mm) to ensure an adequate 
strip width.
(4) Presentation of Data in Reports
     It is important that the required reports are useful 
summaries and interpretations of the results of the various elements of 
the monitoring plans as opposed to merely regurgitations of all of the 
raw results. They should thus represent a first derivative level of 
summary/interpretation of the efficacy, measurements, and observations 
rather than raw data or fully processed analysis. A clear summary 
timeline and spatial (map) representation/summary of operations and 
important observations should be given. Any and all mitigation measures 
(e.g., vessel course deviations for animal avoidance, operational 
shutdown) should be summarized. Additionally, an assessment of the 
efficacy of monitoring methods should be provided.

Reporting Measures

    The Notice of Proposed IHA (76 FR 68974, November 7, 2011) 
described the reporting requirements that would be required of Shell, 
including an SSV report, technical reports, a comprehensive report, and 
reports of sightings of injured or dead marine mammals. Please refer to 
that notice for the full description. Slight changes have been made to 
the submission of the SSV report, as described in the response to 
Comment 69 earlier in this document. Because of the nature of the 
sounds that will be produced during Shell's operations, it is more 
appropriate to have a ``rolling'' schedule of submission

[[Page 27309]]

of sound signatures. Additionally, in response to a recommendation from 
the peer review panel, NMFS will receive the daily PSO sighting logs.

Estimated Take by Incidental Harassment

    Except with respect to certain activities not pertinent here, the 
MMPA defines ``harassment'' as: any act of pursuit, torment, or 
annoyance which (i) has the potential to injure a marine mammal or 
marine mammal stock in the wild [Level A harassment]; or (ii) has the 
potential to disturb a marine mammal or marine mammal stock in the wild 
by causing disruption of behavioral patterns, including, but not 
limited to, migration, breathing, nursing, breeding, feeding, or 
sheltering [Level B harassment]. Only take by Level B behavioral 
harassment is anticipated as a result of the drilling program. Noise 
propagation from the drillship, associated support vessels (including 
during ice management/icebreaking if needed), and the airgun array are 
expected to harass, through behavioral disturbance, affected marine 
mammals species or stocks. Additional disturbance to marine mammals may 
result from aircraft overflights and visual disturbance of the 
drillship or support vessels. However, based on the flight paths and 
altitude, impacts from aircraft operations are anticipated to be 
localized and minimal in nature.
    The full suite of potential impacts to marine mammals from various 
industrial activities was described in detail in the ``Potential 
Effects of the Specified Activity on Marine Mammals'' section in the 
proposed IHA. The potential effects of sound from the exploratory 
drilling program might include one or more of the following: tolerance; 
masking of natural sounds; behavioral disturbance; non-auditory 
physical effects; and, at least in theory, temporary or permanent 
hearing impairment (Richardson et al., 1995a). NMFS estimates that 
Shell's activities will most likely result in behavioral disturbance, 
including avoidance of the ensonified area or changes in speed, 
direction, and/or diving profile of one or more marine mammals. For 
reasons discussed in the proposed IHA, hearing impairment (TTS and PTS) 
is highly unlikely to occur based on the fact that most of the 
equipment to be used during Shell's drilling program does not have 
source levels high enough to elicit even mild TTS and/or the fact that 
certain species are expected to avoid the ensonified areas close to the 
operations. Additionally, non-auditory physiological effects are 
anticipated to be minor, if any would occur at all. Finally, based on 
the required mitigation and monitoring measures described earlier in 
this document and the fact that the back-propagated source levels for 
the drillships proposed to be used are estimated to be between 177 and 
185 dB re 1 [micro]Pa (rms), no injury or mortality of marine mammals 
is anticipated as a result of Shell's exploratory drilling program.
    For continuous sounds, such as those produced by drilling 
operations and during icebreaking activities, NMFS uses a received 
level of 120-dB (rms) to indicate the onset of Level B harassment. For 
impulsive sounds, such as those produced by the airgun array during the 
ZVSP surveys, NMFS uses a received level of 160-dB (rms) to indicate 
the onset of Level B harassment. Shell provided calculations for the 
120-dB isopleths produced by both the Kulluk and the Discoverer and by 
the icebreaker during icebreaking activities and then used those 
isopleths to estimate takes by harassment. Additionally, Shell provided 
calculations for the 160-dB isopleth produced by the airgun array and 
then used that isopleth to estimate takes by harassment. Shell provides 
a full description of the methodology used to estimate takes by 
harassment in its IHA application (see ADDRESSES), which is also 
provided in the Notice of Proposed IHA (76 FR 68974, November 7, 2011). 
Please refer to those documents for the full explanation, as only a 
short summary is provided here. Additional information on the revised 
120-dB isopleth and take estimates from use of the Kulluk based on the 
installation of the quieting technologies is provided here. The method 
for calculating the take estimates has not changed, merely the extent 
of the 120-dB isopleth that was used to derive the final take 
estimates.
    Shell requested authorization to take bowhead, gray, and beluga 
whales, harbor porpoise, and ringed, spotted, bearded, and ribbon seals 
incidental to exploration drilling, ice management/icebreaking, and 
ZVSP activities. Additionally, Shell provided exposure estimates and 
requested takes of narwhal. However, as stated previously in this 
document, sightings of this species are rare, and the likelihood of 
occurrence of narwhals in the drilling area is minimal. Therefore, NMFS 
has not authorized take for narwhals.

Basis for Estimating ``Take by Harassment''

    ``Take by Harassment'' is described in this section and was 
calculated in Shell's application by multiplying the expected densities 
of marine mammals that may occur near the exploratory drilling 
operations by the area of water likely to be exposed to continuous, 
non-pulse sounds >=120 dB re 1 [micro]Pa (rms) during drillship 
operations or icebreaking activities and impulse sounds >=160 dB re 1 
[micro]Pa (rms) created by seismic airguns during ZVSP activities. The 
single exception to this method is for the estimation of exposures of 
bowhead whales during the fall migration where more detailed data were 
available, allowing an alternate approach to be used. NMFS evaluated 
and critiqued the methods provided in Shell's application and 
determined that they were appropriate.
    Marine mammal densities near the operation are likely to vary by 
season and habitat. However, sufficient published data allowing the 
estimation of separate densities during summer (July and August) and 
fall (September and October) are only available for beluga and bowhead 
whales. As noted above, exposures of bowhead whales during the fall are 
not calculated using densities. Therefore, summer and fall densities 
have been estimated for beluga whales, and a summer density has been 
estimated for bowhead whales. Densities of all other species have been 
estimated to represent the duration of both seasons.
    Marine mammal densities are also likely to vary by habitat type. In 
the Alaskan Beaufort Sea, where the continental shelf break is 
relatively close to shore, marine mammal habitat is often defined by 
water depth. Bowhead and beluga occurrence within nearshore (0-131 ft, 
0-40 m), outer continental shelf (131-656 ft, 40-200 m), slope (656-
6,562 ft, 200-2000 m), basin (>6,562 ft, 2000 m), or similarly defined 
habitats have been described previously (Moore et al., 2000; Richardson 
and Thomson, 2002). The presence of most other species has generally 
only been described relative to the entire continental shelf zone (0-
656 ft, 0-200 m) or beyond. Sounds produced by the drilling vessel and 
the seismic airguns are expected to drop below 120 dB and 160 dB, 
respectively, within the nearshore zone (0-131 ft, 0-40 m, water depth) 
while sounds produced by ice management/icebreaking activities, if they 
are necessary, are likely to also be present in the outer continental 
shelf (131-656 ft, 40-200 m).
    In addition to water depth, densities of marine mammals are likely 
to vary with the presence or absence of sea ice. At times during either 
summer or fall, pack-ice may be present in some of the area around the 
drilling operation. However, the retreat of sea ice in the

[[Page 27310]]

Alaskan Beaufort Sea has been substantial in recent years, so Shell has 
assumed that only 33% of the area exposed to sounds >=120 dB or >=160 
dB by the activities will be in ice margin habitat. Therefore, ice-
margin densities of marine mammals in both seasons have been multiplied 
by 33% of the area exposed to sounds by the drilling vessel and ZVSP 
activities, while open-water (nearshore) densities have been multiplied 
by the remaining 67% of the area.
    To provide some allowance for the uncertainties, ``maximum 
estimates,'' as well as ``average estimates,'' of the numbers of marine 
mammals potentially affected have been derived. For a few marine mammal 
species, several density estimates were available, and in those cases 
the mean and maximum estimates were determined from the survey data. In 
other cases, no applicable estimate (or perhaps a single estimate) was 
available, so correction factors were used to arrive at ``average'' and 
``maximum'' estimates. These are described in detail in Shell's 
application and the proposed IHA. NMFS has determined that the average 
density data of marine mammal populations will be used to calculate 
estimated take numbers because these numbers are based on surveys and 
monitoring of marine mammals in the vicinity of the project area. Table 
6-12 in Shell's application indicates that the ``average estimate'' for 
gray whales, harbor porpoise, and ribbon seal is zero. Therefore, to 
account for the fact that these species listed as being potentially 
taken by harassment in this document may occur in Shell's drilling 
sites during active operations, NMFS either used the ``maximum 
estimates'' or made an estimate based on typical group size for a 
particular species.
    Detectability bias, quantified in part by f(0), is associated with 
diminishing sightability with increasing lateral distance from the 
trackline. Availability bias [g(0)] refers to the fact that there is 
<100% probability of sighting an animal that is present along the 
survey trackline. Some sources of densities used here included these 
correction factors in their reported densities. In other cases the best 
available correction factors were applied to reported results when they 
had not been included in the reported data (e.g., Moore et al., 2000).

Estimated Area Exposed to Sounds >120 dB or >160 dB re 1 [micro]Pa rms

(1) Estimated Area Exposed to Continuous Sounds >=120 dB rms from the 
Drillship
    Shell proposes that exploration drilling in Camden Bay would be 
conducted from either the Kulluk or the Discoverer but not both. As 
mentioned earlier in this document, the Kulluk is the primary vessel to 
be used for drilling operations in Camden Bay. The Discoverer would 
only be used if the primary vessel is unavailable for any reason. The 
two vessels are likely to introduce somewhat different levels of sound 
into the water during exploration drilling activities. Descriptions of 
the expected source levels and propagation distances from the two 
vessels are provided in this section. These distances and associated 
ensonified areas are then used in the following section to calculate 
separate estimates of potential exposures.
    Sounds from the Kulluk were measured in the Beaufort Sea in 1986 
and reported by Greene (1987a). The back propagated broadband source 
level from the measurements (185.5 dB re 1 [micro]Pa [middot] rms; 
calculated from the reported 1/3-octave band levels), which included 
sounds from a support vessel operating nearby, were used to model sound 
propagation at the Sivulliq prospect near Camden Bay. However, as 
mentioned earlier in this document, the Kulluk has been retrofitted 
with two technologies intended to quiet the vessel. Based on the 
installation of those technologies, Shell recommends and NMFS' acoustic 
experts agree that a 5 dB reduction of modeled noise source is a 
reasonable estimate of the effectiveness of the quieting technologies 
being implemented. Using a 5 dB reduction, the model estimates that 
sounds would decrease to 120 dB rms at approximately 5.2 mi (8.4 km) 
from the Kulluk (Hannay and Ireland, 2012; see Table 2 here). As a 
precautionary approach, Shell multiplied that distance by 1.5, and the 
resulting radius of 7.8 mi (12.6 km) was used to estimate the total 
area that may be exposed to continuous sounds >=120 dB re 1 [micro]Pa 
rms by the Kulluk at each drill site. Assuming one well site will be 
drilled in each season (summer and fall), the total area of water 
ensonified to >=120 dB rms in each season would be 191 mi\2\ (499 
km\2\). The revised 120-dB isopleth estimates are considerably lower 
than previously identified in the Notice of Proposed IHA (76 FR 68974, 
November 7, 2011) (i.e., 8.2 mi [13.27 km] and 12.3 mi [19.91 km] with 
the 1.5 factor).

   Table 2--Sound Propagation Modeling Results of Exploration Drilling, Icebreaking, and ZVSP Activities Near
                                     Camden Bay in the Alaskan Beaufort Sea
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                  Received level                      Used in
                             Source                                  (dB re 1        Modeling      calculations
                                                                    [micro]Pa)     results (km)        (km)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Kulluk..........................................................             120            8.4            12.6
Discoverer......................................................             120            3.32            4.98
Icebreaking.....................................................             120            7.63            9.5
ZVSP............................................................             160            3.67            5.51
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Sounds from the Discoverer have not previously been measured in the 
Arctic. However, measurements of sounds produced by the Discoverer were 
made in the South China Sea in 2009 (Austin and Warner, 2010). The 
results of those measurements were used to model the sound propagation 
from the Discoverer (including a nearby support vessel) at planned 
exploration drilling locations in the Chukchi and Beaufort seas (Warner 
and Hannay, 2011). Broadband source levels of sounds produced by the 
Discoverer varied by activity and direction from the ship but were 
generally between 177 and 185 dB re 1 [micro]Pa [middot] m rms (Austin 
and Warner, 2010). Propagation modeling at the Sivulliq and Torpedo 
prospects yielded somewhat different results, with sounds expected to 
propagate shorter distances at the Sivulliq site (Warner and Hannay, 
2011). As a precautionary approach, Shell used the larger distance to 
which sounds >=120 dB (2.06 mi [3.32 km]) are expected to propagate at 
the Torpedo site to estimate the area of water potentially exposed at 
both locations. The estimated (2.06 mi [3.32 km]) distance was 
multiplied by 1.5 (= 3.09 mi [4.98 km]) as a further precautionary 
measure before calculating the total area that may be exposed to 
continuous

[[Page 27311]]

sounds >=120 dB re 1 [micro]Pa rms by the Discoverer at each drill site 
(see Table 6-3 in Shell's application). Assuming one well would be 
drilled in each season (summer and fall), the total area of water 
ensonified to >=120 dB rms in each season would be 30 mi\2\ (78 km\2\). 
The 160-dB radii for the Kulluk and the Discoverer were estimated to be 
approximately 180 ft (55 m) and 33 ft (10 m), respectively. Again, 
because source levels for the two drillships were measured to be 
between 177 and 185 dB, the 180 and 190-dB radii were not needed.
    The acoustic propagation model used to estimate the sound 
propagation from both vessels in Camden Bay is JASCO's Marine 
Operations Noise Model (MONM). MONM computes received sound levels in 
rms units when source levels are specified also in those units. MONM 
treats sound propagation in range-varying acoustic environments through 
a wide-angled parabolic equation solution to the acoustic wave 
equation. The specific parabolic equation code in MONM is based on the 
Naval Research Laboratory's Range-dependent Acoustic Model. This code 
has been extensively benchmarked for accuracy and is widely employed in 
the underwater acoustics community (Collins, 1993).
    For analysis of the potential effects on migrating bowhead whales 
Shell calculated the total distance perpendicular to the east-west 
migration corridor ensonified to >=120 dB rms in order to determine the 
number of migrating whales passing the activities that might be exposed 
to that sound level. For the Kulluk, that distance is 2 x 7.8 mi (12.6 
km) (the estimated radius of the 120 dB rms zone), or 15.6 mi (25.2 km) 
(i.e. 7.8 mi [12.6 km] north and 7.8 mi [12.6 km] south of the drill 
site); for the Discoverer, that distance is 2 x 3.09 mi, or 6.19 mi, 
(4.98 km or 9.96 km). At the two Sivulliq sites (G and N, which are 
located close together and positioned similarly relative to the 131 and 
656 ft [40 and 200 m] bathymetric contours), the 15.6 mi (25.2 km) 
distance from the Kulluk covers all of the 23 mi (37 km) wide 0-131 ft 
(0-40 m) water depth category, and approximately 11% of the 22.1 mi 
(35.5 km) wide 131-656 ft (40-200 m) water depth category. The 9.96 km 
distance from the Discoverer covers 27% of the 0-131 ft (0-40 m) 
category and none of the 131-656 ft (40-200 m) category at the Sivulliq 
sites.
    The two drill sites on the Torpedo prospect (designated as H and J) 
are not as close together as the Sivulliq sites, but their position 
relative to the 131 ft (40 m) and 656 ft (200 m) bathymetric contours 
are similar. For simplicity, Shell provided and used only the slightly 
greater estimates resulting from calculations at the Torpedo ``H'' site 
to represent activities at either of the two Torpedo sites. At the 
Torpedo ``H'' site, the 15.6 mi (25.2 km) distance from the Kulluk 
covers approximately 74% of the 37 km wide 0-131 ft (0-40 m) water 
depth category and approximately 35% of the 22.1 mi (35.5 km) wide 131-
656 ft (40-200 m) water depth category. The 6.19 mi (9.96 km) distance 
from the Discoverer covers 27% of the 0-131 ft (0-40 m) category and 
none of the 131-656 ft (40-200 m) category at either of the Torpedo 
sites.
    The percentages of water depth categories described in the previous 
two paragraphs were multiplied by the estimated proportion of the 
whales passing within those categories on each day to estimate the 
number of bowheads that may be exposed to sounds >=120 dB if they 
showed no avoidance of the exploration drilling operations.
(2) Estimated Area Exposed to Continuous Sounds >120 dB rms From Ice 
Management/Icebreaking Activities
    Measurements of the icebreaking supply ship Robert Lemeur pushing 
and breaking ice during exploration drilling operations in the Beaufort 
Sea in 1986 resulted in an estimated broadband source level of 193 dB 
re 1 [micro]Pa [middot] m (Greene, 1987a; Richardson et al., 1995a). 
Measurements of the icebreaking sounds were made at five different 
distances and those were used to generate a propagation loss equation 
[RL = 141.4 - 1.65R - 10Log(R) where R is range in kilometers (Greene, 
1987a); converting R to meters results in the following equation: R = 
171.4 - 10log(R) - 0.00165R]. Using that equation, the estimated 
distance to the 120 dB threshold for continuous sounds from icebreaking 
is 4.74 mi (7.63 km). Since the measurements of the Robert Lemeur were 
taken in the Beaufort Sea under presumably similar conditions as would 
be encountered in 2012, an inflation factor of 1.25 was selected to 
arrive at a precautionary 120 dB distance of 5.9 mi (9.5 km) for 
icebreaking sounds (see Table 6-3 in Shell's application).
    If ice is present, ice management/icebreaking activities may be 
necessary in early July and towards the end of operations in late 
October, but it is not expected to be needed throughout the proposed 
exploration drilling season. Icebreaking activities would likely occur 
in a 40[deg] arc up to 3.1 mi (5 km) upwind of the Kulluk or Discoverer 
(see Figure 1-3 and Attachment B in Shell's application for additional 
details). This activity area plus a 5.9 mi (9.5 km) buffer around it 
results in an estimated total area of 162 mi\2\ (420 km2) that may be 
exposed to sounds >=120 dB from ice management/icebreaking activities 
in each season. Icebreaking is not expected to occur during the bowhead 
migration since it is only anticipated to be needed either in early 
July or late October, so additional take estimates during the migration 
period have not been calculated.
(3) Estimated Area Exposed to Impulsive Sounds >=160 dB rms From 
Airguns
    Shell proposes to use the ITAGA eight-airgun array for the ZVSP 
surveys in 2012, which consists of four 150-in\3\ airguns and four 40-
in\3\ airguns for a total discharge volume of 760 in\3\. The >=160 dB 
re 1 [micro]Pa rms radius for this source was estimated from 
measurements of a similar seismic source used during the 2008 BP 
Liberty seismic survey (Aerts et al., 2008). The BP liberty source was 
also an eight-airgun array but had a slightly larger total volume of 
880 in\3\. Because the number of airguns is the same, and the 
difference in total volume only results in an estimated 0.4 dB decrease 
in the source level of the ZVSP source, the 100th percentile 
propagation model from the measurements of the BP Liberty source is 
almost directly applicable. However, the BP Liberty source was towed at 
a depth of 5.9 ft (1.8 m), while Shell's ZVSP source would be lowered 
to a target depth of 13 ft (4 m) (from 10-23 ft [3-7 m]). The deeper 
depth of the ZVSP source has the potential to increase the source 
strength by as much as 6 dB. Thus, the constant term in the propagation 
equation from the BP Liberty source was increased from 235.4 to 241.4 
while the remainder of the equation (-18 * LogR - 0.0047 * R) was left 
unchanged. NMFS reviewed the use of this equation and the similarities 
between the 2008 BP Liberty project and Shell's proposed drilling sites 
and determined that it is appropriate to base the sound isopleths on 
those results. This equation results in the following estimated 
distances to maximum received levels: 190 dB = 0.33 mi (524 m); 180 dB 
= 0.77 mi (1,240 m); 160 dB = 2.28 mi (3,670 m); 120 dB = 6.52 mi 
(10,500 m). The >=160 dB distance was multiplied by 1.5 (see Table 6-3 
in Shell's application) for use in estimating the area ensonified to 
>=160 dB rms around the drilling vessel during ZVSP activities. 
Therefore, the total area of water potentially exposed to received 
sound levels >=160 dB rms by ZVSP operations at one exploration well 
site during each season (i.e., summer and

[[Page 27312]]

fall) is estimated to be 73.7 mi\2\ (190.8 km\2\).
    For analysis of potential effects on migrating bowhead whales, the 
>=120 dB distance for exploration drilling activities was used on all 
days during the bowhead migration as described previously. This is a 
precautionary approach in the case of the Kulluk since the >=160 dB 
zone for the relatively brief ZVSP surveys is expected to be less than 
the >=120 dB distance from the Kulluk. If the Discoverer were to be 
used, the slightly greater distance to the >=160 dB threshold from the 
ZVSP airguns than the >=120 dB distance from the Discoverer (see Table 
6-3 in Shell's application) would result in only 3% more of the 0-131 
ft (0-40 m) depth category being ensonified on up to 2 days. This would 
result in an estimated increase of approximately 10 bowhead whales 
compared to the estimates shown in (see Table 6-7 in Shell's 
application).
    Shell intends to conduct sound propagation measurements on the 
Kulluk or Discoverer (whichever is used) and the airgun source in 2012 
once they are on location near Camden Bay. The results of those 
measurements would then be used during the season to implement 
mitigation measures.

Potential Number of ``Takes by Harassment''

    Although a marine mammal may be exposed to drilling or icebreaking 
sounds >=120 dB (rms) or airgun sounds >=160 dB (rms), not all animals 
react to sounds at this low level, and many will not show strong 
reactions (and in some cases any reaction) until sounds are much 
stronger. There are several variables that determine whether or not an 
individual animal will exhibit a response to the sound, such as the age 
of the animal, previous exposure to this type of anthropogenic sound, 
habituation, etc.
    Numbers of marine mammals that might be present and potentially 
disturbed (i.e., Level B harassment) are estimated below based on 
available data about mammal distribution and densities at different 
locations and times of the year as described previously. Exposure 
estimates have been calculated based on the use of either the Kulluk or 
Discoverer operating in Camden Bay beginning in July, as well as ice 
management/icebreaking activities, if needed, and minimal airgun usage 
(see estimates below). Shell will not conduct any activities associated 
with the exploration drilling program in Camden Bay during the 2012 
Kaktovik and Nuiqsut (Cross Island) fall bowhead whale subsistence 
harvests. Shell will suspend exploration activities on August 25, prior 
to the beginning of the hunts, will resume activities in Camden Bay 
after conclusion of the subsistence harvests, and complete exploration 
activities on or about October 31, 2012. Actual drilling may occur on 
approximately 78 days in Camden Bay (which includes the 20-28 hours 
total needed for airgun operations), approximately half of which would 
occur before and after the fall bowhead subsistence hunts.
    The number of different individuals of each species potentially 
exposed to received levels of continuous sound >=120 dB re 1 [micro]Pa 
(rms) or to pulsed sounds >=160 dB re 1 [micro]Pa (rms) within each 
season and habitat zone was estimated by multiplying:
     The anticipated area to be ensonified to the specified 
level in the time period and habitat zone to which a density applies, 
by
     The expected species density.
    The estimate for bowhead whales during the migration period was 
calculated differently as described previously. The numbers of 
exposures were then summed for each species across the seasons and 
habitat zones.
    At times during either summer (July-August) or fall (September-
October), pack-ice may be present in some of the area around the 
exploration drilling operation. However, the retreat of sea ice in the 
Alaskan Beaufort Sea has been substantial in recent years, so Shell 
assumed that only 33% of the area exposed to sounds >=120 dB or >=160 
dB by the exploration drilling program and ZVSP activities will be in 
ice-margin habitat. Therefore, ice-margin densities of marine mammals 
in both seasons have been multiplied by 33% of the area exposed to 
sounds by the drilling and ZVSP activities, while open-water 
(nearshore) densities have been multiplied by the remaining 67% of the 
area. Since any icebreaking activities would only occur in ice-margin 
habitat, the entire area exposed to sounds >=120 dB from icebreaking 
was multiplied by the ice-margin densities.
    Estimates from use of the Discoverer and during ice management/
icebreaking and the ZVSP surveys are the same as in the Notice of 
Proposed IHA (76 FR 68974, November 7, 2011). Only estimates from use 
of the Kulluk have changed since publication of that notice. The change 
is based on an estimated 5 dB reduction in the sound level of the 
Kulluk with the installation of the new quieting technologies, which 
were described previously in this document. Revised take estimate 
tables are provided here for use of the Kulluk (see Tables 3 and 4).

  Table 3--Estimates of the Number of Beluga and Bowhead Whales in Areas Where Maximum Received Sound Levels in
      the Water Would Be =120 dB From Operations Conducted by the Kulluk During Shell's Proposed
    Exploration Drilling Program in Summer (July-August) and Fall (September-October) Near Camden Bay in the
                                           Beaufort Sea, Alaska, 2012
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                    Number of individuals exposed to sound levels =120 dB from Kulluk
                                   -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
         Season:  Species                   Nearshore                Ice margin                   Total
                                   -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                        Avg.         Max.         Avg.         Max.         Avg.         Max.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Summer:
    Beluga........................            1            4            0            2            1            6
    Bowhead.......................            6           24            3           12            9           35
Fall:
    Beluga........................            1            5            1            5            2            9
    Bowhead.......................        3,483        6,966          N/A          N/A        3,483        6,966
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


[[Page 27313]]


 Table 4--Estimates of the Numbers of Marine Mammals (Excluding Beluga and Bowhead Whales) in Each Offshore Area
   Where Maximum Received Sound Levels in the Water Would Be >=120 dB From the Kulluk During Shell's Proposed
                 Exploration Drilling Program Near Camden Bay in the Beaufort Sea, Alaska, 2012
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                    Number of individuals exposed to sound levels =120 dB from Kulluk
                                   -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
              Species                       Nearshore                Ice margin                   Total
                                   -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                        Avg.         Max.         Avg.         Max.         Avg.         Max.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Harbor porpoise...................            0            0            0            0            0            5
Gray whale........................            0            0            0            0            0            5
Bearded seal......................           12           48            4           17           16           65
Ribbon seal.......................            0            0            0            0            0            5
Ringed seal.......................          235          939           82          327          317        1,267
Spotted seal......................            2           10            0            0            2           10
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Estimated Take Conclusions

    As stated previously, NMFS' practice has been to apply the 120 dB 
re 1 [mu]Pa (rms) received level threshold for underwater continuous 
sound levels and the 160 dB re 1 [mu]Pa (rms) received level threshold 
for underwater impulsive sound levels to determine whether take by 
Level B harassment occurs. However, not all animals react to sounds at 
these low levels, and many will not show strong reactions (and in some 
cases any reaction) until sounds are much stronger.
    Although the 120-dB isopleth for the drillships may seem fairly 
expansive (i.e., 7.8 mi [12.6 km] for the Kulluk or 4.6 mi [7.4 km] for 
the Discoverer, which include the 50 percent inflation factor), the 
zone of ensonification begins to shrink dramatically with each 10-dB 
increase in received sound level. The 160-dB rms zones for the Kulluk 
and Discoverer are estimated to extend approximately 180 ft (55 m) and 
33 ft (10 m) from the ship, respectively. As stated previously, source 
levels for the two different drillships are expected to be between 177 
and 185 dB (rms). For an animal to be exposed to received levels 
between 177 and 185 dB, it would have to be within several meters of 
the vessel, which is unlikely, especially given the fact that certain 
species are likely to avoid the area.
    For impulsive sounds, such as those produced by the airguns, 
studies reveal that baleen whales show avoidance responses, which would 
reduce the likelihood of them being exposed to higher received sound 
levels. The 180-dB zone (0.77 mi [1.24 km]) is one-third the size of 
the 160-dB zone (2.28 mi [3.67 km], which is the modeled distance 
before the 1.5 inflation factor is included). In the limited studies 
that have been conducted on pinniped responses to pulsed sound sources, 
they seem to be more tolerant and do not exhibit strong behavioral 
reactions (see Southall et al., 2007).
    NMFS is authorizing the average take estimates provided in Shell's 
application and Table 5 here for bowhead whales and bearded, ringed, 
and spotted seals. The only exceptions to this are for the gray whale, 
harbor porpoise, and ribbon seal since the average estimate is zero for 
those species and for the beluga whale to account for group size. 
Therefore, for the 2012 Beaufort Sea drilling season, NMFS has 
authorized the take of 65 beluga whales, 3,502 bowhead whales, 15 gray 
whales, 15 harbor porpoise, 30 bearded seals, 588 ringed seals, 7 
spotted seals, and 5 ribbon seals. For beluga and gray whales and 
harbor porpoise, this represents 0.2% of the Beaufort Sea population of 
approximately 39,258 beluga whales (Allen and Angliss, 2011), 0.08% of 
the Eastern North Pacific stock of approximately 18,017 gray whales 
(Allen and Angliss, 2011), and 0.03% of the Bering Sea stock of 
approximately 48,215 harbor porpoise (Allen and Angliss, 2011). This 
represents 23% of the BCB bowhead population of 15,232 individuals 
assuming 3.4% annual population growth from the 2001 estimate of 10,545 
animals (Zeh and Punt, 2005). The take estimates presented for bearded, 
ringed, and spotted seals represent 0.01%, 0.2%, and 0.01% of the 
Bering-Chukchi-Beaufort populations for each species, respectively. The 
take estimate for ribbon seals represents 0.01% of the Alaska stock of 
this species. These take numbers are based on Shell utilizing the 
Kulluk. Table 5 here also presents the take numbers and percentages of 
the population if Shell utilizes the Discoverer instead, which has a 
smaller 120-dB radius. If the Discoverer is used for drilling 
operations instead of the Kulluk, the take estimates for bowhead whales 
and ringed and bearded seals drop substantially.
    With the exception of the subsistence mitigation measure of 
shutting down during the Nuiqsut and Kaktovik fall bowhead whale hunts, 
these take estimates do not take into account any of the mitigation 
measures described previously in this document. Additionally, if the 
fall bowhead hunts end after September 15, and Shell still concludes 
activities on October 31, then fewer animals will be exposed to 
drilling sounds, especially bowhead whales, as more of them will have 
migrated past the area in which they would be exposed to continuous 
sound levels of 120 dB or greater or impulsive sound levels of 160 dB 
or greater prior to Shell resuming active operations. These take 
numbers also do not consider how many of the exposed animals may 
actually respond or react to the exploration drilling program. Instead, 
the take estimates are based on the presence of animals, regardless of 
whether or not they react or respond to the activities.

[[Page 27314]]



   Table 5--Population Abundance Estimates, Total Authorized Level B Take (When Combining Takes From Drillship
   Operations, Ice Management/Icebreaking, and ZVSP Surveys) for the Kulluk and Discoverer, and Percentage of
    Population That May Be Taken for the Potentially Affected Species, Dependent Upon Which Drillship Is Used
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                       Total                           Total
                                                    authorized     Percentage of    authorized     Percentage of
             Species               Abundance \1\   level B take      stock or      level B take      stock or
                                                     with the       population       with the       population
                                                    Kulluk \2\                    Discoverer \3\
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Bowhead Whale...................      \4\ 15,232           3,502           23              1,398            9.2
Gray Whale......................          18,017              15            0.08              15            0.08
Beluga Whale....................          39,258              65            0.2               37            0.1
Harbor Porpoise.................          48,215              15            0.03              15            0.03
Ringed Seal.....................         249,000             588            0.2              320            0.1
Bearded Seal....................         250,000              30            0.01              17            0.01
Spotted Seal....................          59,214               7            0.01               7            0.01
Ribbon Seal.....................          49,000               5            0.01               5            0.01
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
\1\ Abundance estimates taken from Allen and Angliss (2011) unless otherwise stated.
\2\ This includes take from operation of the Kulluk, ice management/icebreaking, and the airguns.
\3\ This includes take from operation of the Discoverer, ice management/icebreaking, and the airguns.
\4\ Estimate from George et al. (2004) with an annual growth rate of 3.4%.

Negligible Impact and Small Numbers Analysis and Determination

    NMFS has defined ``negligible impact'' in 50 CFR 216.103 as ``* * * 
an impact resulting from the specified activity that cannot be 
reasonably expected to, and is not reasonably likely to, adversely 
affect the species or stock through effects on annual rates of 
recruitment or survival.'' In making a negligible impact determination, 
NMFS considers a variety of factors, including but not limited to: (1) 
The number of anticipated mortalities; (2) the number and nature of 
anticipated injuries; (3) the number, nature, intensity, and duration 
of Level B harassment; and (4) the context in which the takes occur.
    No injuries or mortalities are anticipated to occur as a result of 
Shell's Camden Bay exploratory drilling program, and none are 
authorized. Injury, serious injury, or mortality could occur if there 
were a large or very large oil spill. However, as discussed previously 
in this document, the likelihood of a spill is extremely remote. Shell 
has implemented many design and operational standards to minimize the 
potential for an oil spill of any size. NMFS has not authorized take 
from an oil spill, as it is not part of the specified activity. 
Additionally, animals in the area are not expected to incur hearing 
impairment (i.e., TTS or PTS) or non-auditory physiological effects. 
Instead, any impact that could result from Shell's activities is most 
likely to be behavioral harassment and is expected to be of limited 
duration. Although it is possible that some individuals may be exposed 
to sounds from drilling operations more than once, during the migratory 
periods it is less likely that this will occur since animals will 
continue to move westward across the Beaufort Sea. This is especially 
true for bowhead whales that will be migrating past the drilling 
operations beginning in mid- to late September (depending on the date 
Shell resumes activities after the shutdown period for the fall bowhead 
subsistence hunts by the villages of Kaktovik and Nuiqsut).
    Some studies have shown that bowhead whales will continue to feed 
in areas of seismic operations (e.g., Richardson, 2004). Therefore, it 
is possible that some bowheads may continue to feed in an area of 
active drilling operations. It is important to note that the sounds 
produced by drilling operations are of a much lower intensity than 
those produced by seismic airguns. Should bowheads choose to feed in 
the ensonified area instead of avoiding the sound, individuals may be 
exposed to sounds at or above 120 dB (rms) for several hours to days, 
depending on how long the individual animal chooses to remain in the 
area to feed. Should bowheads choose to feed in Camden Bay during the 
ZVSP surveys, this activity will occur only twice during the entire 
drilling season and will not last more than 10-14 hours each time. It 
is anticipated that one such survey would occur prior to the migration 
period and one during the migration period. Therefore, feeding or 
migrating bowhead whales would only be exposed to airgun sounds for a 
total of 10-14 hours throughout the entire open-water season. Many 
animals perform vital functions, such as feeding, resting, traveling, 
and socializing on a diel cycle (24-hr cycle). As discussed here, some 
bowhead whales may decide to remain in Camden Bay for several days to 
feed; however, they are not expected to be feeding for 24 hours 
straight each day. Additionally, if an animal is excluded from Camden 
Bay for feeding because it decides to avoid the ensonified area, this 
may result in some extra energy expenditure for the animal to find an 
alternate feeding ground. However, as noted in the response to Comment 
14, Camden Bay is only one of several feeding areas for bowhead whales 
in the U.S. Arctic Ocean. NMFS anticipates that bowhead whales could 
find feeding opportunities in other parts of the Beaufort Sea.
    The sounds produced by the drillship are of lower intensity than 
those produced by seismic airguns. Therefore, if animals remain in 
ensonified areas to feed, they would be in areas where the sound levels 
are not high enough to cause injury (based on the fact that source 
levels are not expected to reach levels known to cause even slight, 
mild TTS, a non-injurious threshold shift). Additionally, if bowhead 
whales come within the 180-dB (rms) radius when the airguns are 
operational, Shell will shutdown the airguns until the animals are 
outside of the required exclusion zone. Although the impact resulting 
from the generation of sound may cause a disruption in feeding 
activities in and around Camden Bay, this disruption is not reasonably 
likely to adversely affect rates of recruitment and survival of the BCB 
bowhead whale population.
    Shell's exploration drilling program is not expected to negatively 
affect the bowhead whale westward migration through the U.S. Beaufort 
Sea. The migration typically starts around the last week of August or 
first week of September. Shell will cease operations on August 25 for 
the fall bowhead whale

[[Page 27315]]

hunts at Kaktovik and Cross Island (for the village of Nuiqsut). 
Operations will not resume until both communities have announced the 
close of the fall hunt, which typically occurs around September 15 each 
year. Therefore, whales that migrate through the area the first few 
weeks of the migration period will not be exposed to any acoustic or 
non-acoustic stimuli from Shell's operations. Only the last 6 weeks of 
Shell's operations would occur during the migratory period. Cow/calf 
pairs typically migrate through the area later in the season (i.e., 
late September/October) as opposed to the beginning of the season 
(i.e., late August/early September). Shell's activities are not 
anticipated to have a negative effect on the migration or on the cow/
calf pairs migrating through the area. If cow/calf pairs migrate 
through during airgun operations, required power down and shutdown 
procedures would reduce impacts further.
    Beluga whales are more likely to occur in the project area after 
the recommencement of activities in September than in July or August. 
Should any belugas occur in the area of active drilling, it is not 
expected that they would remain in the area for a prolonged period of 
time, as their westward migration usually occurs further offshore (more 
than 37 mi [60 km]) and in deeper waters (more than 656 ft [200 m]) 
than that planned for the location of Shell's Camden Bay well sites. 
Gray whales do not occur frequently in the Camden Bay area of the 
Beaufort Sea. Additionally, there are no known feeding grounds for gray 
whales in the Camden Bay area. The most northern feeding sites known 
for this species are located in the Chukchi Sea near Hanna Shoal and 
Point Barrow. Based on these factors, exposures of gray whales to 
industrial sound are not expected to last for prolonged periods (i.e., 
several days or weeks) since they are not known to remain in the area 
for extended periods of time. Since harbor porpoise are considered 
extralimital in the area with recent sightings not occurring east of 
Prudhoe Bay, no adverse impacts that could affect important life 
functions are anticipated for this species.
    Some individual pinnipeds may be exposed to drilling sounds more 
than once during the time frame of the project. This may be especially 
true for ringed seals, which occur in the Beaufort Sea year-round and 
are the most frequently encountered pinniped species in the area. 
However, as stated previously, pinnipeds appear to be more tolerant of 
anthropogenic sound, especially at lower received levels, than other 
marine mammals, such as mysticetes.
    Ringed seals construct lairs for pupping in the Beaufort Sea. 
However, this species typically does not construct lairs until late 
winter/early spring on the landfast ice. Because Shell will cease 
operations by October 31, they will not be in the area during the 
ringed seal pupping season. Bearded seals breed in the Bering and 
Chukchi Seas, as the Beaufort Sea provides less suitable habitat for 
the species. Spotted and ribbon seals are even less common in the 
Camden Bay area. These species do not breed in the Beaufort Sea. 
Shell's exploration drilling program is not anticipated to impact 
breeding or pupping for any of the ice seal species.
    Of the eight marine mammal species likely to occur in the drilling 
area, only the bowhead whale is listed as endangered under the ESA. The 
species is also designated as ``depleted'' under the MMPA. Despite 
these designations, the BCB stock of bowheads has been increasing at a 
rate of 3.4% annually for nearly a decade (Allen and Angliss, 2011), 
even in the face of ongoing industrial activity. Additionally, during 
the 2001 census, 121 calves were counted, which was the highest yet 
recorded. The calf count provides corroborating evidence for a healthy 
and increasing population (Allen and Angliss, 2011). Certain stocks or 
populations of gray and beluga whales and spotted seals are listed as 
endangered or are proposed for listing under the ESA; however, none of 
those stocks or populations occur in the activity area. On December 10, 
2010, NMFS published a notice of proposed threatened status for 
subspecies of the ringed seal (75 FR 77476) and a notice of proposed 
threatened and not warranted status for subspecies and distinct 
population segments of the bearded seal (75 FR 77496) in the Federal 
Register. Neither of these two ice seal species is currently considered 
depleted under the MMPA. There is currently no established critical 
habitat in the project area for any of these eight species.
    Potential impacts to marine mammal habitat were discussed in detail 
in the Notice of Proposed IHA (76 FR 68974, November 7, 2011; see the 
``Anticipated Effects on Habitat'' section). Although some disturbance 
is possible to food sources of marine mammals, any impacts to affected 
marine mammal stocks or species are anticipated to be minor. Based on 
the vast size of the Arctic Ocean where feeding by marine mammals 
occurs versus the localized area of the drilling program, any missed 
feeding opportunities in the direct project area would be of little 
consequence, as marine mammals would have access to other feeding 
grounds.
    If the Kulluk is the drillship used, the estimated takes proposed 
to be authorized represent 0.2% of the Beaufort Sea population of 
approximately 39,258 beluga whales (Allen and Angliss, 2011), 0.08% of 
the Eastern North Pacific stock of approximately 18,017 gray whales 
(Allen and Angliss, 2011), 0.03% of the Bering Sea stock of 
approximately 48,215 harbor porpoise (Allen and Angliss, 2011), and 23% 
of the Bering-Chukchi-Beaufort population of 15,232 individuals 
assuming 3.4% annual population growth from the 2001 estimate of 10,545 
animals (Zeh and Punt, 2005). The take estimates presented for bearded, 
ringed, and spotted seals represent 0.01%, 0.2%, and 0.01% of the 
Bering-Chukchi-Beaufort populations for each species, respectively. The 
take estimate for ribbon seals represents 0.01% of the Alaska stock of 
this species. If the Discoverer is the drillship used, the estimated 
takes proposed to be authorized represent 0.1% of the Beaufort Sea 
population of approximately 39,258 beluga whales (Allen and Angliss, 
2011), 0.08% of the Eastern North Pacific stock of approximately 18,017 
gray whales (Allen and Angliss, 2011), 0.03% of the Bering Sea stock of 
approximately 48,215 harbor porpoise (Allen and Angliss, 2011), and 
9.2% of the Bering-Chukchi-Beaufort population of 15,232 individuals 
assuming 3.4% annual population growth from the 2001 estimate of 10,545 
animals (Zeh and Punt, 2005). The take estimates presented for bearded, 
ringed, and spotted seals represent 0.01%, 0.1%, and 0.01% of the 
Bering-Chukchi-Beaufort populations for each species, respectively. The 
take estimate for ribbon seals represents 0.01% of the Alaska stock of 
this species. These estimates represent the percentage of each species 
or stock that could be taken by Level B behavioral harassment if each 
animal is taken only once.
    The estimated take numbers are likely an overestimate for several 
reasons. First, these take numbers were calculated using a 50% 
inflation factor of the 120-dB and 160-dB radii, which is a 
precautionary approach recommended by some acousticians when modeling a 
new sound source in a new location. SSV tests could reveal that the 
Level B harassment zone is either smaller or larger than that used to 
estimate take. If the SSV tests reveal that the Level B harassment 
zones are

[[Page 27316]]

slightly larger than those modeled, the 50% inflation factor should 
cover the discrepancy; however, based on recent SSV tests of seismic 
airguns (which showed that the measured 160-dB isopleths was in the 
area of the modeled value), the 50% correction factor likely results in 
an overestimate of takes. Additionally, the mitigation and monitoring 
measures (described previously in this document) included in the IHA 
are expected to reduce even further any potential disturbance to marine 
mammals. Last, some marine mammal individuals, including mysticetes, 
have been shown to avoid the ensonified area around airguns at certain 
distances (Richardson et al., 1999), and, therefore, some individuals 
would not likely enter into the Level B harassment zones for the 
various types of activities.
    The take estimates for the Kulluk are approximately 2.5 times those 
for the Discoverer. One explanation for this is that the Kulluk's 
original rigid structure does little to dampen vibration as it moves 
through the structure to the hull. This past year, Shell has invested 
in retrofitting the Kulluk. As described earlier in this document, this 
retrofit includes changing out the engines and installing sound 
dampening mounts for the new engines. This retrofit is expected to help 
lower the sound levels emitted by the Kulluk. As stated previously, 
Shell intends to conduct SSV tests for all vessels, including the 
drillship, once on location in the Beaufort Sea in 2012. Therefore, 
there is the potential that fewer animals will be taken than previously 
estimated if the SSV tests indicate smaller isopleths. Based on the 
best available information, the mitigation and monitoring protocols 
that will be implemented by Shell, and the extremely low likelihood of 
a major oil spill occurring, NMFS has determined that Shell's 
activities would have no more than a negligible impact on the affected 
marine mammal species and stocks.

Impact on Availability of Affected Species or Stock for Taking for 
Subsistence Uses

Relevant Subsistence Uses

    The disturbance and potential displacement of marine mammals by 
sounds from drilling activities are the principal concerns related to 
subsistence use of the area. Subsistence remains the basis for Alaska 
Native culture and community. Marine mammals are legally hunted in 
Alaskan waters by coastal Alaska Natives. In rural Alaska, subsistence 
activities are often central to many aspects of human existence, 
including patterns of family life, artistic expression, and community 
religious and celebratory activities. Additionally, the animals taken 
for subsistence provide a significant portion of the food that will 
last the community throughout the year. The main species that are 
hunted include bowhead and beluga whales, ringed, spotted, and bearded 
seals, walruses, and polar bears. (As mentioned previously in this 
document, both the walrus and the polar bear are under the USFWS' 
jurisdiction.) The importance of each of these species varies among the 
communities and is largely based on availability.
    The subsistence communities in the Beaufort Sea that have the 
potential to be impacted by Shell's Camden Bay drilling program include 
Kaktovik, Nuiqsut, and Barrow. Kaktovik is a coastal community 60 mi 
(96.6 km) east of the project area. Nuiqsut is 118 mi (190 km) west of 
the project area and about 20 mi (32 km) inland from the coast along 
the Colville River. Cross Island, from which Nuiqsut hunters base their 
bowhead whaling activities, is 47 mi (75.6 km) southwest of the project 
area. Barrow, the community farthest from the project area, lies 298 mi 
(479.6 km) west of Shell's Camden Bay drill sites.
(1) Bowhead Whales
    Of the three communities, Barrow is the only one that currently 
participates in a spring bowhead whale hunt. However, this hunt is not 
anticipated to be affected by Shell's activities, as the spring hunt 
occurs in late April to early May, and Shell's Camden Bay drilling 
program will not begin prior to July 1.
    All three communities participate in a fall bowhead hunt. In 
autumn, westward-migrating bowhead whales typically reach the Kaktovik 
and Cross Island (Nuiqsut hunters) areas by early September, at which 
point the hunts begin (Kaleak, 1996; Long, 1996; Galginaitis and Koski, 
2002; Galginaitis and Funk, 2004, 2005; Koski et al., 2005). Around 
late August, the hunters from Nuiqsut establish camps on Cross Island 
from where they undertake the fall bowhead whale hunt. The hunting 
period starts normally in early September and may last as late as mid-
October, depending mainly on ice and weather conditions and the success 
of the hunt. Most of the hunt occurs offshore in waters east, north, 
and northwest of Cross Island where bowheads migrate and not inside the 
barrier islands (Galginaitis, 2007). Hunters prefer to take bowheads 
close to shore to avoid a long tow, but Braund and Moorehead (1995) 
report that crews may (rarely) pursue whales as far as 50 mi (80 km) 
offshore. Whaling crews use Kaktovik as their home base, leaving the 
village and returning on a daily basis. The core whaling area is within 
12 mi (19.3 km) of the village with a periphery ranging about 8 mi (13 
km) farther, if necessary. The extreme limits of the Kaktovik whaling 
grounds would be the middle of Camden Bay to the west. The timing of 
the Kaktovik bowhead whale hunt roughly parallels the Cross Island 
whale hunt (Impact Assessment Inc., 1990b; SRB&A, 2009:Map 64). In 
recent years, the hunts at Kaktovik and Cross Island have usually ended 
by mid-to-late-September.
    Westbound bowheads typically reach the Barrow area in mid-September 
and are in that area until late October (Brower, 1996). However, over 
the years, local residents report having seen a small number of bowhead 
whales feeding off Barrow or in the pack ice off Barrow during the 
summer. Recently, autumn bowhead whaling near Barrow has normally begun 
in mid-September to early October, but in earlier years it began as 
early as August if whales were observed and ice conditions were 
favorable (USDI/BLM, 2005). The recent decision to delay harvesting 
whales until mid-to-late September has been made to prevent spoilage, 
which might occur if whales were harvested earlier in the season when 
the temperatures tend to be warmer. Whaling near Barrow can continue 
into October, depending on the quota and conditions.
    Shell anticipates arriving on location in Camden Bay around July 10 
and continuing operations until August 25. Shell will suspend all 
operations on August 25 for the Nuiqsut (Cross Island) and Kaktovik 
subsistence bowhead whale hunts. The drillship and support vessels will 
leave the Camden Bay project area, will move to a location at or north 
of 71.25[deg] N. latitude and at or west of 146.4[deg] W. longitude, 
and will return to resume activities after the Nuiqsut (Cross Island) 
and Kaktovik bowhead hunts conclude. Depending on when Nuiqsut and 
Kaktovik declare their hunts closed, drilling operations may resume in 
the middle of the Barrow fall bowhead hunt.
(2) Beluga Whales
    Beluga whales are not a prevailing subsistence resource in the 
communities of Kaktovik and Nuiqsut. Kaktovik hunters may harvest one 
beluga whale in conjunction with the bowhead hunt; however, it appears 
that most households obtain beluga through exchanges with other 
communities. Although Nuiqsut hunters have not hunted belugas for many 
years while on

[[Page 27317]]

Cross Island for the fall hunt, this does not mean that they may not 
return to this practice in the future. Data presented by Braund and 
Kruse (2009) indicate that only 1% of Barrow's total harvest between 
1962 and 1982 was of beluga whales and that it did not account for any 
of the harvested animals between 1987 and 1989.
    There has been minimal harvest of beluga whales in Beaufort Sea 
villages in recent years. Additionally, if belugas are harvested, it is 
usually in conjunction with the fall bowhead harvest. Shell will not be 
operating during the Kaktovik and Nuiqsut fall bowhead harvests.
(3) Ice Seals
    Ringed seals are available to subsistence users in the Beaufort Sea 
year-round, but they are primarily hunted in the winter or spring due 
to the rich availability of other mammals in the summer. Bearded seals 
are primarily hunted during July in the Beaufort Sea; however, in 2007, 
bearded seals were harvested in the months of August and September at 
the mouth of the Colville River Delta. An annual bearded seal harvest 
occurs in the vicinity of Thetis Island (which is a considerable 
distance from Shell's Camden Bay drill sites) in July through August. 
Approximately 20 bearded seals are harvested annually through this 
hunt. Spotted seals are harvested by some of the villages in the summer 
months. Nuiqsut hunters typically hunt spotted seals in the nearshore 
waters off the Colville River delta, which is more than 100 mi (161 km) 
from Shell's drill sites.
    Although there is the potential for some of the Beaufort villages 
to hunt ice seals during the summer and fall months while Shell is 
conducting exploratory drilling operations, the primary sealing months 
occur outside of Shell's operating time frame. Additionally, some of 
the more established seal hunts that do occur in the Beaufort Sea, such 
as the Colville delta area hunts, are located a significant distance 
(in some instances 100 mi [161 km] or more) from the project area.

Potential Impacts to Subsistence Uses

    NMFS has defined ``unmitigable adverse impact'' in 50 CFR 216.103 
as: ``* * * an impact resulting from the specified activity: (1) That 
is likely to reduce the availability of the species to a level 
insufficient for a harvest to meet subsistence needs by: (i) Causing 
the marine mammals to abandon or avoid hunting areas; (ii) Directly 
displacing subsistence users; or (iii) Placing physical barriers 
between the marine mammals and the subsistence hunters; and (2) That 
cannot be sufficiently mitigated by other measures to increase the 
availability of marine mammals to allow subsistence needs to be met.''
    Noise and general activity during Shell's drilling program have the 
potential to impact marine mammals hunted by Native Alaskans. In the 
case of cetaceans, the most common reaction to anthropogenic sounds (as 
noted previously) is avoidance of the ensonified area. In the case of 
bowhead whales, this often means that the animals divert from their 
normal migratory path by several kilometers. Helicopter activity also 
has the potential to disturb cetaceans and pinnipeds by causing them to 
vacate the area. Additionally, general vessel presence in the vicinity 
of traditional hunting areas could negatively impact a hunt. Native 
knowledge indicates that bowhead whales become increasingly 
``skittish'' in the presence of seismic noise. Whales are more wary 
around the hunters and tend to expose a much smaller portion of their 
back when surfacing (which makes harvesting more difficult). 
Additionally, natives report that bowheads exhibit angry behaviors in 
the presence of seismic, such as tail-slapping, which translate to 
danger for nearby subsistence harvesters.
    In the case of subsistence hunts for bowhead whales in the Beaufort 
Sea, there could be an adverse impact on the hunt if the whales were 
deflected seaward (further from shore) in traditional hunting areas. 
The impact would be that whaling crews would have to travel greater 
distances to intercept westward migrating whales, thereby creating a 
safety hazard for whaling crews and/or limiting chances of successfully 
striking and landing bowheads.
    In the unlikely event of an oil spill, marine mammals could become 
contaminated and therefore unavailable to subsistence users. 
Additionally, perception could also affect availability of marine 
mammals for subsistence uses. Even if whales or seals are not oiled or 
contaminated by an oil spill, the mere perception that they could be 
contaminated could reduce the availability of marine mammals for 
subsistence uses.

Plan of Cooperation (POC)

    Regulations at 50 CFR 216.104(a)(12) require IHA applicants for 
activities that take place in Arctic waters to provide a POC or 
information that identifies what measures have been taken and/or will 
be taken to minimize adverse effects on the availability of marine 
mammals for subsistence purposes. Shell developed a POC for its 2012 
Camden Bay, Beaufort Sea, Alaska, exploration drilling program to 
minimize any adverse impacts on the availability of marine mammals for 
subsistence uses. A copy of the Draft POC was provided to NMFS with the 
IHA Application as Attachment D (see ADDRESSES for availability). 
Meetings with potentially affected subsistence users began in 2009 and 
continued into 2010 and 2011 (see Table 4.2-1 in Shell's POC for a list 
of all meetings conducted through April 2011). During these meetings, 
Shell focused on lessons learned from prior years' activities and 
presented mitigation measures for avoiding potential conflicts, which 
are outlined in the 2012 POC and this document. For the 2012 Camden Bay 
drilling program, Shell's POC with Chukchi Sea villages primarily 
addresses the issue of transit of vessels, whereas the POC with 
Beaufort Sea villages addresses vessel transit, drilling, and 
associated activities. Communities that were consulted regarding 
Shell's 2012 Arctic Ocean operations include: Barrow, Kaktovik, 
Wainwright, Kotzebue, Kivalina, Point Lay, Point Hope, Kiana, Gambell, 
Savoonga, and Shishmaref.
    Beginning in early January 2009 and continuing into 2011, Shell 
held one-on-one meetings with representatives from the North Slope 
Borough (NSB) and Northwest Arctic Borough (NWAB), subsistence-user 
group leadership, and Village Whaling Captain Association 
representatives. Shell's primary purpose in holding individual meetings 
was to inform and prepare key leaders, prior to the public meetings, so 
that they would be prepared to give appropriate feedback on planned 
activities.
    Shell presented the proposed project to the NWAB Assembly on 
January 27, 2009, to the NSB Assembly on February 2, 2009, and to the 
NSB and NWAB Planning Commissions in a joint meeting on March 25, 2009. 
Meetings were also scheduled with representatives from the AEWC, and 
presentations on proposed activities were given to ICAS, and the Native 
Village of Barrow. On December 8, 2009, Shell held consultation 
meetings with representatives from the various marine mammal 
commissions. Prior to drilling in 2012, Shell will also hold additional 
consultation meetings with the affected communities and subsistence 
user groups, NSB, and NWAB to discuss the mitigation measures included 
in the POC. Shell presented information regarding the proposed 
operations and marine mammal monitoring plans at the 2012 Arctic Open 
Water Meeting in Anchorage, Alaska, which was held

[[Page 27318]]

March 6-8, 2012. Shell also attended the 2011 CAA negotiation meetings 
in support of a limited program of marine environmental baseline 
activities in 2011 taking place in the Beaufort and Chukchi seas. Shell 
has stated that it is committed to a CAA process and will demonstrate 
this by making a good-faith effort to negotiate a CAA every year it has 
planned activities. To that end, Shell attended the 2012 CAA 
negotiation meetings and signed the 2012 CAA on March 26, 2012.
    The following mitigation measures, plans and programs, are integral 
to the POC and were developed during consultation with potentially 
affected subsistence groups and communities. These measures, plans, and 
programs will be implemented by Shell during its 2012 exploration 
drilling operations in both the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas to monitor 
and mitigate potential impacts to subsistence users and resources. The 
mitigation measures Shell has adopted and will implement during its 
2012 Camden Bay exploration drilling operations are listed and 
discussed below. The most recent version of Shell's planned mitigation 
measures was presented to community leaders and subsistence user groups 
starting in January of 2009 and has evolved since in response to 
information learned during the consultation process.
    To minimize any cultural or resource impacts to subsistence whaling 
activities from its exploration operations, Shell will suspend drilling 
activities on August 25, 2012, prior to the start of the Kaktovik and 
Cross Island bowhead whale hunting season. The drillship and associated 
vessels will remain outside of the Camden Bay area during the hunt. 
Shell will resume drilling operations after the conclusion of the hunt 
and, depending on ice and weather conditions, continue its exploration 
activities through October 31, 2012. In addition to the adoption of 
this project timing restriction, Shell will implement the following 
additional measures to ensure coordination of its activities with local 
subsistence users to minimize further the risk of impacting marine 
mammals and interfering with the subsistence hunts for marine mammals:
    (1) The drillship and support vessels will transit through the 
Chukchi Sea along a route that lies offshore of the polynya zone. In 
the event the transit outside of the polynya zone results in Shell 
having to break ice (as opposed to managing ice by pushing it out of 
the way), the drillship and support vessels will enter into the polynya 
zone far enough so that ice breaking is not necessary. If it is 
necessary to move into the polynya zone, Shell will notify the local 
communities of the change in the transit route through the Com Centers;
    (2) Shell has developed a Communication Plan and will implement the 
plan before initiating exploration drilling operations to coordinate 
activities with local subsistence users as well as Village Whaling 
Associations in order to minimize the risk of interfering with 
subsistence hunting activities and keep current as to the timing and 
status of the bowhead whale migration, as well as the timing and status 
of other subsistence hunts. The Communication Plan includes procedures 
for coordination with Com and Call Centers to be located in coastal 
villages along the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas during Shell's proposed 
activities in 2012;
    (3) Shell will employ local Subsistence Advisors from the Beaufort 
and Chukchi Sea villages to provide consultation and guidance regarding 
the whale migration and subsistence hunt. There will be a total of nine 
subsistence advisor-liaison positions (one per village), to work 
approximately 8-hours per day and 40-hour weeks through Shell's 2012 
exploration project. The subsistence advisor will use local knowledge 
(Traditional Knowledge) to gather data on subsistence lifestyle within 
the community and advise on ways to minimize and mitigate potential 
impacts to subsistence resources during the drilling season. 
Responsibilities include reporting any subsistence concerns or 
conflicts; coordinating with subsistence users; reporting subsistence-
related comments, concerns, and information; and advising how to avoid 
subsistence conflicts. A subsistence advisor handbook will be developed 
prior to the operational season to specify position work tasks in more 
detail;
    (4) Shell will implement flight restrictions prohibiting aircraft 
from flying within 1,000 ft (305 m) of marine mammals or below 1,500 ft 
(457 m) altitude (except during takeoffs and landings or in emergency 
situations) while over land or sea;
    (5) The drilling support fleet will avoid known fragile ecosystems, 
including the Ledyard Bay Critical Habitat Unit and will include 
coordination through the Com Centers;
    (6) All vessels will maintain cruising speed not to exceed 9 knots 
while transiting the Beaufort Sea;
    (7) Collect all drilling mud and cuttings with adhered mud from all 
well sections below the 26-inch (20-inch casing) section, as well as 
treated sanitary waste water, domestic wastes, bilge water, and ballast 
water and transport them outside the Arctic for proper disposal in an 
Environmental Protection Agency licensed treatment/disposal site. These 
waste streams shall not be discharged into the ocean;
    (8) Drilling mud shall be cooled to mitigate any potential 
permafrost thawing or thermal dissociation of any methane hydrates 
encountered during exploration drilling if such materials are present 
at the drill site; and
    (9) Drilling mud shall be recycled to the extent practicable based 
on operational considerations (e.g., whether mud properties have 
deteriorated to the point where they cannot be used further) so that 
the volume of the mud disposed of at the end of the drilling season is 
reduced.
    The POC also contains measures regarding ice management procedures, 
critical operations procedures, the blowout prevention program, and oil 
spill response. Some of the oil spill response measures to reduce 
impacts to subsistence hunts include: Having the primary OSRV on 
standby at all times so that it is available within 1 hour if needed; 
the remainder of the OSR fleet will be available within 72 hours if 
needed and will be capable of collecting oil on the water up to the 
calculated Worst Case Discharge; oil spill containment equipment will 
be available in the unlikely event of a blowout; capping stack 
equipment will be stored aboard one of the ice management vessels and 
will be available for immediate deployment in the unlikely event of a 
blowout; and pre-booming will be required for all fuel transfers 
between vessels.

Unmitigable Adverse Impact Analysis and Determination

    Shell has adopted a spatial and temporal strategy for its Camden 
Bay operations that should minimize impacts to subsistence hunters. 
First, Shell's activities will not commence until after the spring 
hunts have occurred. Additionally, Shell will traverse the Chukchi Sea 
far offshore, so as to not interfere with July hunts in the Chukchi Sea 
and will communicate with the Com Centers to notify local communities 
of any changes in the transit route. Once Shell is on location in 
Camden Bay, Beaufort Sea, whaling will not commence until late August/
early September. Shell has agreed to cease operations on August 25 to 
allow the villages of Kaktovik and Nuiqsut to prepare for the fall 
bowhead hunts, will move the drillship and all support vessels out of 
the hunting area so that there are no physical barriers between the 
marine mammals and the hunters, and will not recommence activities 
until

[[Page 27319]]

the close of both villages' hunts. The location has been agreed to by 
both Shell and the AEWC so as not to interfere with preparations for 
hunting at Barrow.
    Kaktovik is located 60 mi (96.6 km) east of the project area. 
Therefore, westward migrating whales would reach Kaktovik before 
reaching the area of Shell's activities or any of the ensonified zones. 
Although Cross Island and Barrow are west of Shell's drill sites, sound 
generating activities from Shell's drilling program will have ceased 
prior to the whales passing through the area. Additionally, Barrow lies 
298 mi (479.6 km) west of Shell's Camden Bay drill sites, so whalers in 
that area would not be displaced by any of Shell's activities.
    Adverse impacts are not anticipated on sealing activities since the 
majority of hunts for seals occur in the winter and spring, when Shell 
will not be operating. Sealing activities in the Colville River delta 
area occur more than 100 mi (161 km) from Shell's Camden Bay drill 
sites.
    Shell will also support the village Com Centers in the Arctic 
communities and employ local SAs from the Beaufort and Chukchi Sea 
villages to provide consultation and guidance regarding the whale 
migration and subsistence hunt. The SAs will provide advice to Shell on 
ways to minimize and mitigate potential impacts to subsistence 
resources during the drilling season.
    In the unlikely event of a major oil spill in the Beaufort Sea, 
there could be major impacts on the availability of marine mammals for 
subsistence uses (such as displacement from traditional hunting grounds 
and contaminated animals taken for harvests). However, as discussed 
earlier in this document, the probability of a major oil spill 
occurring over the life of the project is low (Bercha, 2008). As a 
condition of the 2012 CAA that Shell signed on March 26, 2012, any 
company engaged in drilling operations agrees to enter into a binding 
oil spill mitigation agreement with the AEWC, NSB, and ICAS to provide 
for hunter transport to alternate hunting locations in the unlikely 
event of an oil spill. Additionally, Shell developed an OSRP, which was 
recently approved by BSEE after review and comment by DOI and several 
Federal agencies and the public. Shell has also incorporated several 
mitigation measures into its operational design to reduce further the 
risk of an oil spill. Based on the information available, the 
mitigation measures that Shell will implement, and the extremely low 
likelihood of a major oil spill occurring, NMFS has determined that 
Shell's activities will not have an unmitigable adverse impact on the 
availability of marine mammals for subsistence uses.

Endangered Species Act (ESA)

    There is one marine mammal species listed as endangered under the 
ESA with confirmed or possible occurrence in the project area: The 
bowhead whale. There are two marine mammal species proposed for listing 
as threatened with confirmed or possible occurrence in the project 
area: Ringed and bearded seals. NMFS' Permits and Conservation Division 
conducted consultation with NMFS' Endangered Species Division under 
section 7 of the ESA on the issuance of an IHA to Shell under section 
101(a)(5)(D) of the MMPA for this activity. In April, 2012, NMFS 
finished conducting its section 7 consultation and issued a Biological 
Opinion, and concluded that the issuance of the IHA associated with 
Shell's 2012 Beaufort Sea drilling program is not likely to jeopardize 
the continued existence of the endangered bowhead whale, the Arctic 
sub-species of ringed seal, or the Beringia distinct population segment 
of bearded seal. No critical habitat has been designated for these 
species, therefore none will be affected.

National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA)

    NMFS prepared an EA that includes an analysis of potential 
environmental effects associated with NMFS' issuance of an IHA to Shell 
to take marine mammals incidental to conducting an exploratory drilling 
program in Camden Bay, Beaufort Sea, Alaska. NMFS has finalized the EA 
and prepared a FONSI for this action. Therefore, preparation of an 
Environmental Impact Statement is not necessary. NMFS' EA was available 
to the public for a 30-day comment period before it was finalized.

Authorization

    As a result of these determinations, NMFS has issued an IHA to 
Shell for the take of marine mammals, by Level B harassment, incidental 
to conducting an offshore exploratory drilling program in Camden Bay in 
the Beaufort Sea during the 2012 open-water season, provided the 
previously mentioned mitigation, monitoring, and reporting requirements 
are incorporated.

    Dated: May 2, 2012.
Helen M. Golde,
Acting Director, Office of Protected Resources, National Marine 
Fisheries Service.
[FR Doc. 2012-11084 Filed 5-8-12; 8:45 am]
BILLING CODE 3510-22-P