Approval and Promulgation of Implementation Plans; California; 2007 South Coast PM2.5, 41562-41584 [2011-17229]
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Federal Register / Vol. 76, No. 135 / Thursday, July 14, 2011 / Proposed Rules
ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION
AGENCY
40 CFR Part 52
[EPA–R09–OAR–2009–0366; FRL–9435–1]
Approval and Promulgation of
Implementation Plans; California; 2007
South Coast PM2.5 Plan and 2007 State
Strategy
Environmental Protection
Agency (EPA).
ACTION: Proposed rule.
AGENCY:
EPA is proposing to approve
in part and disapprove in part state
implementation plan (SIP) revisions
submitted by California to provide for
attainment of the 1997 fine particulate
matter (PM2.5) national ambient air
quality standards in the Los AngelesSouth Coast area (South Coast). These
SIP revisions are the South Coast 2007
Air Quality Management Plan (South
Coast 2007 AQMP) (revised 2011) and
South Coast-related provisions of the
2007 State Strategy (revised 2009 and
2011). EPA is proposing to approve the
emissions inventories; air quality
modeling; reasonably available control
measures/reasonably available control
technology demonstration; the
reasonable further progress and
attainment demonstrations; and the
transportation conformity motor vehicle
emissions budgets. EPA is also
proposing to grant California’s request
to extend the attainment deadline for
the South Coast to April 5, 2015 and to
approve commitments to measures and
reductions by the South Coast Air
Quality Management District and the
California Air Resources Board. Finally,
we are proposing to disapprove the
SIP’s contingency measures and to reject
the assignment of 10 tpd of NOX
reductions to the federal government.
This proposed rule amends EPA’s
November 22, 2010 proposed rule (75
FR 91294) on the South Coast PM2.5
plan and 2007 State strategy.
DATES: Any comments must arrive by
August 15, 2011.
ADDRESSES: Submit comments,
identified by docket number EPA–R09–
OAR–2009–0366, by one of the
following methods:
• Federal eRulemaking Portal: https://
www.regulations.gov. Follow the online
instructions.
• E-mail: tax.wienke@epa.gov.
• Mail or deliver: Marty Robin, Office
of Air Planning (AIR–2), U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency
Region 9, 75 Hawthorne Street, San
Francisco, CA 94105.
Instructions: All comments will be
included in the public docket without
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SUMMARY:
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change and may be made available
online at https://www.regulations.gov,
including any personal information
provided, unless the comment includes
Confidential Business Information (CBI)
or other information whose disclosure is
restricted by statute. Information that
you consider CBI or otherwise protected
should be clearly identified as such and
should not be submitted through https://
www.regulations.gov or e-mail. The
https://www.regulations.gov Web site is
an ‘‘anonymous access’’ system, and
EPA will not know your identity or
contact information unless you provide
it in the body of your comment. If you
send e-mail directly to EPA, your e-mail
address will be automatically captured
and included as part of the public
comment. If EPA cannot read your
comments due to technical difficulties
and cannot contact you for clarification,
EPA may not be able to consider your
comment.
Docket: The index to the docket for
this action is available electronically on
the https://www.regulations.gov Web site
and in hard copy at EPA Region 9, 75
Hawthorne Street, San Francisco,
California, 94105. While all documents
in the docket are listed in the index,
some information may be publicly
available only at the hard copy location
(e.g., copyrighted material), and some
may not be publicly available at either
location (e.g., CBI). To inspect the hard
copy materials, please schedule an
appointment during normal business
hours with the contact listed in the FOR
FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT section
below.
Copies of the SIP materials are also
available for inspection at the following
locations:
• California Air Resources Board,
1001 I Street, Sacramento, California
95812, and
• South Coast Air Quality
Management District, 21865 E. Copley
Drive, Diamond Bar, California 91765.
The SIP materials are also electronically
available at: https://aqmd.gov/aqmp/
07aqmp/ and https://
www.arb.ca.gov/planning/sip/sip.htm.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT:
Wienke Tax, Air Planning Office (AIR–
2), U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency, Region 9, (415) 947–4192,
tax.wienke@epa.gov.
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION:
Throughout this document, ‘‘we,’’ ‘‘us’’
and ‘‘our’’ refer to EPA.
Table of Contents
I. The PM2.5 NAAQS and the South Coast
PM2.5 Nonattainment Area
II. California’s State Implementation Plan
Submittals to Address PM2.5 Attainment
in the South Coast Nonattainment Area
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A. California’s SIP Submittals
1. 2007 South Coast AQMP
2. CARB 2007 State Strategy
3. CARB 2009 State Strategy Status Report
4. Additional 2008 SIP Submittal Related
to Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets
5. CARB 2011 Progress Report
6. Revisions to the 2007 PM2.5 and Ozone
State Implementation Plan for South
Coast Air Basin and Coachella Valley
B. CAA Procedural Requirements for SIP
Submittals
III. EPA’s 2010 Proposed Action on the South
Coast PM2.5 SIP
IV. CAA and Regulatory Requirements for
PM2.5 Attainment SIPs
V. Review of the South Coast 2007 AQMP
and the South Coast Portion of the
Revised 2007 State Strategy
A. Emission Inventories
1. Requirements for Emission Inventories
2. Emission Inventories in the South Coast
2007 AQMP
3. Proposed Action on the Emission
Inventories
B. Reasonably Available Control Measures
(RACM)/Reasonably Available Control
Technology (RACT) and Adopted
Control Strategy
1. Requirement for RACM/RACT
2. RACM/RACT Demonstration in the
South Coast 2007 AQMP and the 2007
State Strategy
a. District’s RACM/RACT Analysis and
Adopted Control Strategy
b. CARB’s RACM Analysis and Adopted
Control Strategy
c. The Local Jurisdiction’s RACM Analysis
3. Proposed Actions on RACM/RACT
Demonstration and Adopted Control
Strategy
C. Attainment Demonstration
1. Requirements for Attainment
Demonstration
2. Air Quality Modeling in the South Coast
2007 AQMP
3. PM2.5 Precursors Addressed in the South
Coast 2007 AQMP
4. Extension of the Attainment Date
5. Attainment Demonstration
a. Enforceable Commitments
i. The Commitment Represents a Limited
Portion of Required Reductions
ii. The State Is Capable of Fulfilling Its
Commitment
iii. The Commitment Is for a Reasonable
and Appropriate Period of Time
b. Federal Reductions
6. Proposed Action on the Attainment
Demonstration
D. Reasonable Further Progress
Demonstration
1. Requirements for Reasonable Further
Progress
2. Reasonable Further Progress
Demonstration in the South Coast 2007
AQMP
3. Proposed Action on the RFP
Demonstration
E. Contingency Measures
1. Requirements for Contingency Measures
2. Contingency Measures in the South
Coast 2007 AQMP
3. Proposed Action on the Contingency
Measures
F. Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets for
Transportation Conformity
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1. Requirements for Transportation
Conformity
2. Budgets in the South Coast 2007 AQMP
and Additional 2008 Submittal
3. EPA’s 2008 Adequacy/Inadequacy
Finding
4. Updated Motor Vehicle Emissions
Budgets in the 2011 Progress Report and
Additional Revisions
5. Proposed Action on the Revised
Updated Budgets in the 2011 Progress
Report
6. Proposed Action on the Trading
Mechanism
VI. EPA’s Proposed Actions and
Consequences
A. EPA’s Proposed Approvals and
Disapprovals
B. CAA Consequences of a Final
Disapproval
VII. Statutory and Executive Order Reviews
I. The PM2.5 NAAQS and the South
Coast PM2.5 Nonattainment Area
On July 18, 1997 (62 FR 36852), EPA
established new national ambient air
quality standards (NAAQS) for PM2.5,
particulate matter with a diameter of 2.5
microns or less, including annual
standards of 15.0 micrograms per cubic
meter (μg/m3) based on a 3-year average
of annual mean PM2.5 concentrations,
and 24-hour (daily) standards of 65 μg/
m3 based on a 3-year average of the 98th
percentile of 24-hour concentrations. 40
CFR 50.7 EPA established the standards
based on substantial evidence from
numerous health studies demonstrating
that serious health effects are associated
with exposures to PM2.5 concentrations
above the levels of these standards.
Epidemiological studies have shown
statistically significant correlations
between elevated PM2.5 levels and
premature mortality. Other important
health effects associated with PM2.5
exposure include aggravation of
respiratory and cardiovascular disease
(as indicated by increased hospital
admissions, emergency room visits,
absences from school or work, and
restricted activity days), changes in lung
function and increased respiratory
symptoms, as well as new evidence for
more subtle indicators of cardiovascular
health. Individuals particularly
sensitive to PM2.5 exposure include
older adults, people with heart and lung
disease, and children. See, EPA, Air
Quality Criteria for Particulate Matter,
No. EPA/600/P–99/002aF and EPA/600/
P–99/002bF, October 2004.
PM2.5 can be emitted directly into the
atmosphere as a solid or liquid particle
(‘‘primary’’ or ‘‘direct PM2.5’’) or can be
formed in the atmosphere as a result of
various chemical reactions from
precursor emissions of nitrogen oxides
(NOX), sulfur oxides (SOX), volatile
organic compounds (VOC) and
ammonia (NH3) (‘‘secondary PM2.5’’).
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See 72 FR 20586, 20589 (April 25,
2007).
Following promulgation of a new or
revised NAAQS, EPA is required by
Clean Air Act (CAA) section 107(d) to
designate areas throughout the United
States as attaining or not attaining the
NAAQS. On January 5, 2005, EPA
published initial air quality
designations for the 1997 PM2.5 NAAQS,
based on air quality monitoring data for
three-year periods of 2001–2003 or
2002–2004 (70 FR 944). These
designations became effective on April
5, 2005.
EPA designated the ‘‘Los AngelesSouth Coast Air Basin’’ area (South
Coast nonattainment area), including
Orange County, the southwestern twothirds of Los Angeles County,
southwestern San Bernardino County,
and western Riverside County as
nonattainment for both the 1997 24hour and the annual PM2.5 standards.
The South Coast PM2.5 nonattainment
area is home to about 17 million people,
has a diverse economic base, and
contains one of the highest-volume port
areas in the world. For a precise
description of the geographic
boundaries of the South Coast PM2.5
nonattainment area, see 40 CFR 81.305.1
The local air district with primary
responsibility for developing a plan to
attain the PM2.5 NAAQS in this area is
the South Coast Air Quality
Management District (District or
SCAQMD).
Ambient 24-hour PM2.5 levels in the
South Coast are well below the 1997
PM2.5 NAAQS. Ambient annual PM2.5
levels are improving but are still above
the federal NAAQS. The design value
monitor at Mira Loma recorded a value
of 16.8 μg/m3 for the 2008–2010
period.2 In the South Coast, the levels
and composition of PM2.5 differ by
geographic location, with higher PM2.5
1 On October 17, 2006, EPA strengthened the 24hour PM2.5 NAAQS by lowering the level to 35 μg/
m3. At the same time, we retained the level of the
annual PM2.5 standard at 15.0 μg/m3. 71 FR 61144.
On November 13, 2009, EPA designated areas,
including the South Coast, with respect to the
revised 24-hour NAAQS. 74 FR 58688. California is
now required to submit an attainment plan for the
35 μg/m3 standards by December 14, 2012. In this
preamble, all references to the PM2.5 NAAQS,
unless otherwise specified, are to the 1997 24-hour
PM2.5 standards of 65 μg/m3 and annual standards
of 15 μg/m3 as codified in 40 CFR 50.7.
2 See the Air Quality Subsystem (AQS)
Preliminary Design Value Report dated April 21,
2011 in the docket for today’s action. 16.8 μg/m3
is the highest design value in the South Coast
nonattainment area. The design value is the three
year average of annual means of a single monitoring
site. (see 40 CFR 50 Appendix N Section 1(c)(1)).
This design value is based on 2008 and 2009 data
that are complete, validated, and certified by the
District and on 2010 data that are complete and
validated but not yet certified by the District.
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concentrations typically occurring in
metropolitan Los Angeles and in the
inland valley areas of San Bernardino
and metropolitan Riverside Counties.
The higher PM2.5 concentrations in Los
Angeles County are mainly due to
secondary formation of particulates. See
South Coast 2007 AQMP, page 2–13.
II. California’s State Implementation
Plan Submittals To Address PM2.5
Attainment in the South Coast
Nonattainment Area
A. California’s SIP Submittals
Designation of an area as
nonattainment starts the process for a
state to develop and submit to EPA a
State Implementation plan (SIP) under
title 1, part D of the CAA. This SIP must
include, among other things, a
demonstration of how the NAAQS will
be attained in the nonattainment area as
expeditiously as practicable, but no later
than the date required by the CAA.
Under CAA section 172(b), a State has
up to three years after an area’s
designation to nonattainment to submit
its SIP to EPA. For the 1997 PM2.5
NAAQS, these nonattainment SIPs were
due no later than April 5, 2008.
California has made six SIP submittals
to address PM2.5 nonattainment in the
South Coast nonattainment area. The
two principal ones are the District’s
2007 PM2.5 Plan (South Coast 2007
AQMP) and the CARB’s State Strategy
for California’s 2007 State
Implementation Plan (2007 State
Strategy).
In addition to these submittals, the
District and State have also submitted
numerous rules that contribute to
improving air quality in the South Coast
nonattainment area. See Appendices A
and B of the technical support
document (TSD) for this proposal.
1. 2007 South Coast AQMP
On November 28, 2007, the California
Air Resources Board (CARB or State)
submitted the ‘‘Final 2007 Air Quality
Management Plan, June 2007.’’ 3 This
3 The South Coast 2007 AQMP is the first South
Coast Plan to address PM2.5. We have previously
acted on numerous South Coast air quality plans for
ozone, PM–10, carbon monoxide, and NO2, such as
the 1997/1999 AQMP. We approved the ozone
portion of the 1997 South Coast AQMP, as amended
in 1999, on April 10, 2000 (see 65 FR 18903). Our
most recent action on a SIP addressing the CAA
requirements for the South Coast ozone
nonattainment area was our partial approval and
partial disapproval of the 2003 AQMP (see 74 FR
10176, March 10, 2009). Our 2009 final action was
challenged in the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals,
which published an opinion remanding certain
aspects of EPA’s action for further action consistent
with the opinion. See Association of Irritated
Residents v. EPA, 632 F.3d 584 (9th Cir. 2011). The
issues in dispute relate to the consequences of an
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Plan was adopted by the District on June
1, 2007 and submitted to CARB on
October 24, 2007.4 The South Coast
2007 AQMP includes a PM2.5 attainment
demonstration for the South Coast. In
order to meet relevant CAA
requirements for the PM2.5 NAAQS, the
South Coast 2007 AQMP includes base
and projected year PM2.5 emissions
inventories for the South Coast
nonattainment area; air quality
monitoring data; short-, medium- and
long-term District control measures; a
summary of CARB’s control measures;
transportation control measures (TCMs);
a demonstration of reasonable further
progress (RFP); a modeled attainment
demonstration; a demonstration of
reasonably available control measures/
reasonably available control technology
(RACM/RACT); contingency measures
for the 1997 PM2.5 RFP and for
attainment for the South Coast PM2.5
nonattainment area; and a request to
extend the attainment date for the 1997
PM2.5 NAAQS to April 5, 2015, although
all controls necessary for attainment by
that date will be in place by the
attainment year of 2014.5 The South
Coast 2007 AQMP submittal also
includes District Governing Board
Resolution 07–9 adopting the final
South Coast 2007 AQMP.
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2. CARB 2007 State Strategy
To demonstrate attainment, the South
Coast 2007 AQMP relies in part on
measures in the 2007 State Strategy. The
2007 State Strategy was adopted on
September 27, 2007 and submitted to
EPA on November 16, 2007.6 It
discusses CARB’s overall approach to
addressing, in conjunction with local
plans, attainment of both the 1997 PM2.5
and 8-hour ozone NAAQS not only in
the South Coast nonattainment area but
also in California’s other nonattainment
EPA disapproval of a SIP submittal, the adequacy
of EPA’s evaluation of a particular control measure
from the 2003 State Strategy, and the rationale for
EPA’s approval of the State’s submittal as meeting
the requirements of CAA section 182(d)(1)(A)
(TCMs to offset growth in emissions from growth
in VMT) in the South Coast. EPA has sought
rehearing on some of the issues, and the mandate
in this case has not yet been issued pending action
by the court on the petition for rehearing.
4 See letter, James N. Goldstene, Executive
Officer, CARB, to Jared Blumenfeld, Regional
Administrator, EPA Region 9, September 15, 2010,
with enclosures.
5 While the applicable attainment date for PM
2.5
areas with a full five-year extension is April 5,
2015, reductions must be implemented by 2014 to
achieve attainment by that date. See 40 CFR
51.1007(b). We, therefore, refer to 2014 as the
attainment year and April 5, 2015 as the attainment
date.
6 See CARB Resolution No. 07–28, September 27,
2007 with attachments and letter from James N.
Goldstene, Executive Officer, CARB, to Wayne
Nastri, Regional Administrator, EPA Region 9,
November 16, 2007 with enclosures.
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areas such as the San Joaquin Valley
and the Sacramento area. It also
includes CARB’s commitments to
propose 15 defined State measures 7 and
to obtain specific amounts of aggregate
emissions reductions of direct PM2.5,
NOX, VOC and SOX in the South Coast
from sources under the State’s
jurisdiction, primarily on- and off-road
motor vehicles and engines.
3. CARB 2009 State Strategy Status
Report
On August 12, 2009, CARB submitted
the ‘‘Status Report on the State Strategy
for California’s 2007 State
Implementation Plan (SIP) and
Proposed Revision to the SIP Reflecting
Implementation of the 2007 State
Strategy’’, dated March 24, 2009,
adopted April 24, 2009 (‘‘2009 State
Strategy Status Report’’),8 which
updates the 2007 State Strategy to
reflect its implementation during 2007
and 2008.
In today’s proposal, we are evaluating
only those portions of the South Coast
2007 AQMP and 2007 State Strategy and
its revisions (including the 2011
revisions described below) that are
relevant for attainment of the 1997 PM2.5
standards in the South Coast
nonattainment area.
4. Additional 2008 SIP Submittal
Related to Motor Vehicle Emissions
Budgets
In addition to the SIP submittals for
the 1997 PM2.5 NAAQS mentioned
above, on April 4, 2008, the District
Governing Board approved an
alternative approach for transportation
conformity motor vehicle emission
budgets for the South Coast
nonattainment area. This new approach
was based on the 2007 SIP baseline
emissions reflecting only the regulations
adopted as of October 2006 for all
milestone years up to the attainment
year. The CARB Governing Board
approved Resolution 08–27 itemizing
the modifications to the South Coast
nonattainment area transportation
conformity emission budgets. The
revised motor vehicle emissions budgets
were submitted as an amendment to the
2007 State Strategy also includes measures
to be implemented by the California Bureau of
Automotive Repair (Smog Check improvements)
and the California Department of Pesticide
Regulation (VOC reductions from pesticide use).
See 2007 State Strategy, p. 64–65 and CARB
Resolution 7–28, Attachment B, p. 8.
8 See CARB Resolution No. 09–34, April 24, 2009
and letter, James N. Goldstene, Executive Officer,
CARB to Wayne Nastri, Regional Administrator,
EPA Region 9, August 12, 2009 with enclosures.
Only pages 11–27 of the 2009 State Strategy Status
Report are submitted as a SIP revision. The balance
of the report is for informational purposes only. See
Attachment A to CARB Resolution No. 09–34.
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California SIP on April 30, 2008 and
were amended as part of the 2011
Progress Report discussed below. We
are acting on the budgets as amended in
2011 today.
5. CARB 2011 Progress Report
On May 18, 2011, CARB submitted
the ‘‘Progress Report on Implementation
of PM2.5 State Implementation Plans
(SIP) for the South Coast and San
Joaquin Valley Air Basins and Proposed
SIP Revisions’’, dated March 29, 2011,
and adopted April 28, 2011 (‘‘2011
Progress Report’’).9 This submittal,
which updates both the 2007 State
Strategy and the South Coast 2007
AQMP, shows that both CARB and the
District have made significant progress
in meeting their commitments to adopt
measures and to reduce emissions. More
specifically, it updates CARB’s
rulemaking calendar in the 2007 State
Strategy to reflect the current status of
CARB’s adopted PM2.5 measures and to
change the expected action dates for
several measures. It also updates the
RFP demonstration, contingency
measures, and transportation conformity
motor vehicle emissions budgets in the
South Coast 2007 AQMP to reflect rule
adoption, changes to activity and
emissions factors for certain source
categories, and the impact on projected
emissions levels in the South Coast
nonattainment area of the recent
economic recession.10
6. Revisions to the 2007 PM2.5 and
Ozone State Implementation Plan for
South Coast Air Basin and Coachella
Valley
Also, on May 19, 2011, CARB
submitted a SIP revision entitled
‘‘Revisions to the 2007 PM2.5 and Ozone
State Implementation Plan for South
Coast Air Basin and Coachella Valley
(SIP Revisions)’’. These SIP revisions
provide revised control measure
commitments, a revised rule
implementation schedule, and a partial
backstop for the 10 tpd NOX federal
assignment for the South Coast 2007
AQMP.11 For the purposes of today’s
9 See CARB Board Resolution 11–24, May 18,
2011 and letter, James N. Goldstene, Executive
Officer, CARB to Jared Blumenfeld, Regional
Administrator, EPA Region 9, May 19, 2011 with
enclosures. Only Appendices B, C and D of the
2011 Progress Report are submitted as a SIP
revision. The balance of the report is for
informational purposes only.
10 On June 20, 2011, CARB posted to its Web site
technical revisions to the updated motor vehicle
emissions budgets (budgets) in the 2011 Progress
Report. See https://www.arb.ca.gov/planning/sip/
2007sip/2007sip.htm. We discuss these revisions in
the section on budgets below.
11 See letter, Lynn Terry, Deputy Executive
Officer, CARB, to Jared Blumenfeld, Regional
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proposal, we will refer to this SIP
revision as ‘‘2011 Progress Report,
Appendix F’’, since it was included as
an Appendix to the 2011 Progress
Report submitted on May 18, 2011.
In today’s proposal, we are only
evaluating those portions of the South
Coast 2007 AQMP and the 2007 State
Strategy and its revisions that are
relevant for attainment of the PM2.5
standards in the South Coast
nonattainment area.
Future references in this proposal to
the AQMP and the 2007 State Strategy
will be to the AQMP as revised in 2011
and the Strategy as revised in 2009 and
2011, respectively, unless otherwise
noted.
B. CAA Procedural Requirements for SIP
Submittals
CAA sections 110(a)(1) and (2) and
110(l) require a state to provide
reasonable public notice and
opportunity for public hearing prior to
the adoption and submittal of a SIP or
SIP revision. To meet this requirement,
every SIP submittal should include
evidence that adequate public notice
was given and an opportunity for a
public hearing was provided consistent
with EPA’s implementing regulations in
40 CFR 51.102.
Both the District and CARB have
satisfied applicable statutory and
regulatory requirements for reasonable
public notice and hearing prior to
adoption and submittal of the South
Coast 2007 AQMP. The District
conducted public workshops, provided
public comment periods, and held
public hearings prior to the adoption of
the South Coast 2007 AQMP on June 1,
2007 (District Governing Board
Resolution No. 07–9). CARB provided
the required public notice and
opportunity for public comment prior to
its September 27, 2007 public hearing
on the plan. See CARB Resolution No.
07–41.
CARB conducted public workshops,
provided public comment periods, and
held a public hearing prior to the
adoption of the 2007 State Strategy on
September 27, 2007. (CARB Resolution
No. 07–28). CARB also provided the
required public notice, opportunity for
public comment, and a public hearing
prior to its April 24, 2009 adoption of
the 2009 State Strategy Status Report.
CARB also provided the required public
notice, opportunity for public comment,
and a public hearing prior to its April
28, 2011 adoption of the 2011 Progress
Report. See CARB Resolution 09–34 and
CARB Executive Order S–11–010.
Administrator, EPA Region 9, dated May 19, 2011,
and enclosed ARB Board Resolution 11–24.
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The SIP submittals include proof of
publication for notices of the District
and CARB public hearings, as evidence
that all hearings were properly noticed.
We find, therefore, that the four
submittals that comprise the South
Coast PM2.5 Plan meet the procedural
requirements of CAA sections 110(a)
and 110(l).
CAA section 110(k)(1)(B) requires
EPA to determine whether a SIP
submittal is complete within 60 days of
receipt. This section also provides that
any plan that EPA has not affirmatively
determined to be complete or
incomplete will become complete 6
months after the date of submittal by
operation of law. EPA’s SIP
completeness criteria are found in 40
CFR part 51, Appendix V.
The South Coast 2007 AQMP became
complete by operation of law on May
28, 2008. The November 16, 2007
submission of the 2007 State Strategy
and the 2009 revisions to the Strategy
became complete by operation of law on
May 16, 2008 and February 12, 2010,
respectively. We determined that the
2011 Progress Report was complete on
June 13, 2011.12
III. EPA’s 2010 Proposed Action on the
South Coast PM2.5 SIP
This is the second time EPA has
proposed action on California’s SIP to
address attainment of the 1997 PM2.5
standards in the South Coast
nonattainment area. On November 22,
2010 (75 FR 71294), EPA proposed to
approve in part and disapprove in part
the 2007 South Coast PM2.5 plan and the
related portions of the 2007 State
Strategy as amended in 2009.
Specifically, we proposed to approve
the emissions inventories as meeting the
applicable requirements of the CAA and
the PM2.5 implementation rule in 40
CFR part 51, subpart Z. We proposed to
approve the District’s and CARB’s
commitments to specific measures and
specific aggregate emissions reductions
in these SIP revisions because their
approval would strengthen the SIP. We
also proposed to approve the air quality
modeling.
We previously proposed to
disapprove the attainment
demonstration as not meeting the
applicable requirements of the CAA and
the PM2.5 implementation rule because
it relied too extensively on enforceable
commitments to reduce emissions in
place of fully-adopted and submitted
rules. Based on this proposed
disapproval, we also proposed to
12 See letter, Deborah Jordan, EPA Region 9, to
James Goldstene, CARB, dated June 13, 2011 in the
docket for today’s action.
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41565
disapprove the RACM/RACT and RFP
demonstrations. We also proposed to
disapprove the related contingency
measures and transportation conformity
motor vehicle emissions budgets for the
RFP milestone years 2009 and 2012 and
the attainment year of 2014. Finally, we
proposed not to grant the State’s request
to extend the attainment date for the
PM2.5 NAAQS in the South Coast
nonattainment area to April 5, 2015.
During the comment period for the
November 2010 proposal, we received
four comment letters from the public as
well as comment letters from CARB and
the District. Subsequent to the close of
the comment period, CARB adopted and
submitted revisions to the South Coast
2007 AQMP and 2007 State Strategy.
After considering information contained
in the comment letters and these
supplemental SIP submittals, we have
substantially amended our November
2010 proposed action as described
below. EPA will consider all significant
comments submitted in response to both
its November 2010 proposal and today’s
proposal before taking final action on
the South Coast 2007 AQMP. However,
EPA strongly encourages those who
submitted comments on the November
2010 proposal to submit revised
comments reflecting today’s amended
proposal during the comment period on
this amended proposal.
IV. CAA and Regulatory Requirements
for PM2.5 Attainment SIPs
EPA is implementing the PM2.5
NAAQS under Title 1, part D, subpart
1 of the CAA, which includes section
172, ‘‘Nonattainment plan provisions.’’
Section 172(a)(2) establishes the
attainment date for a PM2.5
nonattainment area ‘‘as expeditiously as
practicable’’ but no later than five years
after the area’s designation as
nonattainment. This section also allows
EPA to grant up to a five-year extension
of an area’s attainment date based on the
severity of the area’s nonattainment and
the availability and feasibility of
controls. EPA designated the South
Coast as a nonattainment area effective
April 5, 2005, and thus the applicable
attainment date is no later than April 5,
2010 or, should EPA grant a full fiveyear extension, no later than April 5,
2015.
Section 172(c) contains the general
statutory planning requirements
applicable to all nonattainment areas,
including the requirements for
emissions inventories, RACM/RACT,
attainment demonstrations, RFP
demonstrations, and contingency
measures.
On April 25, 2007, EPA issued the
Clean Air Fine Particle Implementation
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Rule for the 1997 PM2.5 NAAQS. 72 FR
20586, codified at 40 CFR part 51,
subpart Z (PM2.5 implementation rule).
The PM2.5 implementation rule and its
preamble address the statutory planning
requirements for emissions inventories,
RACM/RACT, attainment
demonstrations including air quality
modeling requirements, RFP
demonstrations, and contingency
measures. This rule also addresses other
matters such as which PM2.5 precursors
must be addressed by the State in its
PM2.5 attainment SIP, applicable
attainment dates, and the requirement
for mid-course reviews.13 We will
discuss each of these CAA and
regulatory requirements for attainment
plans in more detail below.
V. Review of the South Coast 2007
AQMP and the South Coast Portion of
the 2007 State Strategy
We summarize our evaluation of the
South Coast PM2.5 plan’s compliance
with applicable CAA and EPA
regulatory requirements below. Our
detailed evaluation can be found in the
TSD for this proposal, which is
available on line at https://
www.regulations.gov in docket number
EPA–R09–OAR–2009–0366, or from the
EPA contact listed at the beginning of
this notice.
A. Emissions Inventories
1. Requirements for Emissions
Inventories
CAA section 172(c)(3) requires states
to submit a plan revision that includes
‘‘comprehensive, accurate, current
inventory of actual emissions from all
sources of the relevant pollutant.’’ The
PM2.5 implementation rule requires
states to include direct PM2.5 emissions
and emissions of all PM2.5 precursors in
this inventory, even if it has determined
that control of any of these precursors
is not necessary for expeditious
attainment. 40 CFR 51.1008(a)(2) and 72
FR 20586, at 20648. Direct PM2.5
includes condensable particulate matter.
See 40 CFR 51.1000. PM2.5 precursors
are NOX, SO2, VOC, and ammonia
(NH3).14 Id. The inventories should meet
the data requirements of EPA’s
Consolidated Emissions Reporting Rule
(codified at 40 CFR part 51 subpart A)
and include any additional inventory
information needed to support the SIP’s
attainment demonstration and (where
applicable) RFP demonstration. 40 CFR
51.1008(a)(1) and (2).
Baseline emissions inventories are
required for the attainment
demonstration and for meeting RFP
requirements. As determined on the
date of designation, the base year for
these inventories should be the most
recent calendar year for which a
complete inventory was required to be
submitted to EPA. The emission
inventory for calendar year 2002 or
other suitable year should be used for
attainment planning and RFP plans for
areas initially designated nonattainment
for the PM2.5 NAAQS in 2005. 40 CFR
51.1008(b).
EPA has provided additional
guidance for PM2.5 emission inventories
in ‘‘Emissions Inventory Guidance for
Implementation of Ozone and
Particulate Matter NAAQS and Regional
Haze Regulations,’’ November 2005
(EPA–454/R–05–001).
2. Emissions Inventories in the South
Coast 2007 AQMP
The base year and future year baseline
planning inventories for direct PM2.5
and all PM2.5 precursors for the South
Coast nonattainment area together with
additional documentation for the
inventories are found in Appendix III of
the South Coast 2007 AQMP. Average
annual day baseline inventories are
provided for the plan’s base year of 2002
(the reference year for the RFP
demonstration) as well as 2005, 2008,
2010, 2011, and 2014. The base year and
baseline inventories incorporate
reductions from federal, state, and
District measures adopted prior to 2007.
South Coast 2007 AQMP, page 3–1. The
District also provided both summer and
winter planning inventories for PM2.5
and PM2.5 precursors. South Coast 2007
AQMP, Appendix III, page III–1–23.
Table 1 is a summary of the average
annual day inventories for directlyemitted PM2.5 and for the PM2.5
precursors NOX, VOC, and SOX for the
base year of 2002 from the South Coast
2007 AQMP (derived from Appendix A,
Table A–2). It is these inventories that
provide the basis for the control
measure analysis and the RFP and
attainment demonstrations in the South
Coast 2007 AQMP.
TABLE 1—SOUTH COAST NONATTAINMENT AREA EMISSIONS INVENTORY SUMMARY FOR PM2.5 AND PM2.5 PRECURSORS
FOR THE 2002 BASELINE YEAR
[Annual average day emissions in tons per day] a
wreier-aviles on DSKGBLS3C1PROD with PROPOSALS2
Stationary/Areawide Sources ...................................................................
On-road Mobile Sources ..........................................................................
Off-road Mobile Sources ..........................................................................
13 In June 2007, a petition to the EPA
Administrator was filed on behalf of several public
health and environmental groups requesting
reconsideration of four provisions in the PM2.5
implementation rule. See EarthJustice, Petition for
Reconsideration, ‘‘In the Matter of Final Clean Air
Fine Particle Implementation Rule,’’ June 25, 2007.
These provisions are (1) the presumption that
compliance with the Clean Air Interstate Rule
satisfies the NOX and SO2 RACT requirements for
electric generating units; (2) the deferral of the
requirement to establish emission limits for
condensable particulate matter (CPM) until January
1, 2011; (3) revisions to the criteria for analyzing the
economic feasibility of RACT; and (4) the use of
out-of-area emissions reductions to demonstrate
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VOC
2002
NOX
2002
Emissions inventory category
93
628
372
RFP. These provisions are found in the PM2.5
implementation rule and preamble at 20623–20628,
40 CFR 51.1002(c), 20619–20620, and 20636,
respectively. On May 13, 2010, EPA granted the
petition with respect to the fourth issue. Letter,
Gina McCarthy, EPA, to David Baron and Paul Cort,
EarthJustice, May 13, 2010. On April 25, 2011, EPA
granted the petition with respect to the first and
third issues, but denied the petition with respect to
the second issue given that the deferral period for
CPM emissions limits had already ended. Letter,
Lisa P. Jackson, EPA, to Paul Cort, EarthJustice,
April 25, 2011. EPA intends to publish in the
Federal Register notice that will announce the
granting of the latter petition with respect to certain
issues and to initiate a notice and comment process
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302
362
180
NH3 b
2005
SOX
2002
PM2.5
2002
60
18
21
22
4
27
75
29
n/a
to consider proposed changes to the 2007 PM2.5
implementation rule.
Neither the District nor the State relied on the
first, third, or fourth of these provisions in
preparing the South Coast 2007 AQMP or 2007
State Strategy. The District has deferred CPM limits
in its rules. This limited deferral does not affect the
South Coast 2007 AQMP’s RACM/RACT and
expeditious attainment demonstrations. EPA will
evaluate any rule adopted or revised by the District
after January 1, 2011 to assure that it appropriately
addresses CPM.
14 The District controls sulfur oxides (SO ),
X
which includes SO2, and considers the two terms
interchangeable for emissions purposes. We will
use SOX in this notice.
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TABLE 1—SOUTH COAST NONATTAINMENT AREA EMISSIONS INVENTORY SUMMARY FOR PM2.5 AND PM2.5 PRECURSORS
FOR THE 2002 BASELINE YEAR—Continued
[Annual average day emissions in tons per day] a
VOC
2002
NOX
2002
Emissions inventory category
Total ..................................................................................................
1093
844
NH3 b
2005
SOX
2002
PM2.5
2002
99
53
104
a Source:
2007 AQMP, pp. 3–9 and 3–14, Tables 3–1A and 3–3A. Numbers may not add due to rounding. Ammonia emissions estimates were
updated to 2005 by SCAQMD.
b NH3 numbers were not provided for 2002.
wreier-aviles on DSKGBLS3C1PROD with PROPOSALS2
As a starting point for the South Coast
2007 AQMP’s inventories, the District
used CARB’s inventory for the year
2002. An example of this inventory and
CARB’s documentation for its
inventories can be found in Appendices
A and F, respectively, of the 2007 State
Strategy. The 2002 inventory for the
South Coast nonattainment area was
projected to future years using CARB’s
California Emission Forecasting and
Planning Inventory System (CEFIS).
South Coast 2007 AQMP, Appendix III,
page III–1–1. Both base year and
baseline inventories use the current
version of California’s mobile source
emissions model approved by EPA for
use in SIPs, EMFAC2007, for estimating
on-road motor vehicle emissions. 73 FR
3464 (January 18, 2008). Off-road
inventories were developed using the
CARB off-road model. Ammonia
emissions estimates were provided
separately by the District.15
When CARB submitted the 2011
Progress Report, the revised attainment
demonstration for the South Coast was
based on the 2002 baseline inventory.
This is consistent with the baseline
inventory in the 2007 AQMP, as well as
the base year for the RFP demonstration.
It is also the year recommended by EPA
guidance.16
3. Proposed Action on the Emission
Inventories
The inventories in the South Coast
2007 AQMP are based on the most
current and accurate information
available to the State and District at the
time the Plan was developed and
submitted (including using the latest
EPA-approved version of California’s
mobile source emissions model,
EMFAC2007), address comprehensively
all source categories in the South Coast
nonattainment area, and are consistent
with EPA’s inventory guidance. For
these reasons, EPA is proposing to
approve the 2002 base year emissions
inventory in the South Coast 2007
AQMP as meeting the requirements of
15 Electronic mail from Kathy Hsiao, SCAQMD to
Wienke Tax, EPA Region 9, ‘‘RE: NH3 numbers for
SCAB,’’ dated October 29, 2010.
16 See 72 FR 20586, at 20647.
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CAA section 172(c)(3) and 40 CFR
51.1008(a)(1) and to find that the
baseline inventories in the South Coast
2007 AQMP provide an adequate basis
for the RACM/RACT, RFP, and
attainment demonstrations. We provide
more detail on our review of the base
year inventory as well as the projected
year inventories in section II.A. of the
TSD.
Since late 2007, California has
experienced an economic recession that
has greatly reduced current levels of
economic activity in the State’s
construction and goods movement
sectors. The recession has resulted in
lowered projected future levels of
activity in this sector. 2011 Progress
Report, Appendix E. As a result,
projected emission levels from these
categories are now substantially lower
than the levels projected for 2008 and
later in the Plan as submitted in 2007.
At this time, California is addressing
these recession impacts on future
economic activity through adjustments
to the baseline inventories for specific
source categories. See 2011 Progress
Report, Appendix E, page 2. There are
no recession-related adjustments to the
2002 base year inventory in the South
Coast 2007 AQMP.
CARB also made technical changes to
the inventories for diesel trucks, buses,
and certain categories of off-road mobile
source engines as part of its December
2010 rulemaking amending the In-Use
On-Road Truck and Bus Rule and the
In-Use Off-Road Engine rule. Id. The
State estimates that these changes
collectively reduce the 2002 base year
total inventory in the South Coast by 4
percent for NOX and 5 percent for
PM2.5.17 These changes are small given
the normal and unavoidable
uncertainties in all emissions
inventories, and therefore, do not
change our basis for proposing to
approve the base year inventory or to
find the baseline inventories adequate
17 See Attachment 1 to the letter, Lynn Terry,
Deputy Executive Officer, CARB, to Elizabeth
Adams, Deputy Director, Air Division, US EPA
Region 9, dated May 18, 2011 (‘‘CARB Progress
Report supplement’’), in the docket for today’s
proposal.
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for SIP planning purposes. We discuss
the impact of these changes on the
plan’s RFP and attainment
demonstrations later in this notice.
We note that the District and CARB
are currently working on revisions to
the South Coast AQMP to address the
2006 24-hour PM2.5 standards. These
revisions are due to EPA in December
2012 and will include the most current
inventory information that is available.
B. Reasonably Available Control
Measures (RACM)/Reasonably Available
Control Technology (RACT) and
Adopted Control Strategy
1. Requirements for RACM/RACT
CAA section 172(c)(1) requires that
each attainment plan ‘‘provide for the
implementation of all reasonably
available control measures as
expeditiously as practicable (including
such reductions in emissions from
existing sources in the area as may be
obtained through the adoption, at a
minimum, of reasonably available
control technology), and shall provide
for attainment of the national primary
ambient air quality standards.’’ EPA
defines RACM as measures that a State
finds are both reasonably available and
contribute to attainment as
expeditiously as practicable in its
nonattainment area. Thus, what
constitutes RACM/RACT in a PM2.5
attainment plan is closely tied to that
plan’s expeditious attainment
demonstration. 40 CFR 51.1010; 72 FR
20586 at 20612. States are required to
evaluate RACM/RACT for direct PM2.5
and all of its attainment plan precursors.
40 CFR 51.1002(c).
Consistent with subpart 1 of Part D of
the CAA, EPA is requiring a combined
approach to RACM and RACT for PM2.5
attainment plans. Subpart 1, unlike
subparts 2 and 4, does not identify
specific source categories for which EPA
must issue control technology
documents or guidelines for what
constitutes RACT, or identify specific
source categories for State and EPA
evaluation during attainment plan
development. 72 FR 20586 at 20610.
Rather, under subpart 1, EPA considers
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RACT to be part of an area’s overall
RACM obligation. Because of the
variable nature of the PM2.5 problem in
different nonattainment areas, EPA
determined not only that states should
have flexibility with respect to RACT
and RACM controls but also that in
areas needing significant emission
reductions to attain the standards,
RACT/RACM controls on smaller
sources may be necessary to reach
attainment as expeditiously as
practicable. 72 FR 20586 at 20612,
20615. Thus, under the PM2.5
implementation rule, RACT and RACM
are those reasonably available measures
that contribute to attainment as
expeditiously as practicable in the
specific nonattainment area. 40 CFR
51.1010; 72 FR 20586 at 20612.
The PM2.5 implementation rule
requires that attainment plans include
the list of measures the state considered
and information sufficient to show that
a state met all requirements for the
determination of what constitutes
RACM/RACT in its specific
nonattainment area. 40 CFR 51.1010. In
addition, the rule requires that the state,
in determining whether a particular
emissions reduction measure or set of
measures must be adopted as RACM/
RACT, consider the cumulative impact
of implementing the available measures
and adopt as RACM/RACT any potential
measures that are reasonably available
considering technological and economic
feasibility if, considered collectively,
they would advance the attainment date
by one year or more. Id. Any measures
that are necessary to meet these
requirements that are not already either
federally promulgated, part of the state’s
SIP, or otherwise creditable in SIPs
must be submitted in enforceable form
as part of a state’s attainment plan for
the area. 72 FR 20586 at 20614.
A more comprehensive discussion of
the RACM/RACT requirement for PM2.5
attainment plans and EPA’s guidance
for it can be found in the PM2.5
implementation rule preamble at 72 FR
20586, at 20609–20633 and in section
II.D. of the TSD for this proposal.
2. RACM/RACT Demonstration in the
South Coast 2007 AQMP and the 2007
State Strategy
For the South Coast 2007 AQMP and
the 2007 State Strategy, the District,
CARB and the local agency (through the
South Coast’s metropolitan planning
organization (MPO), the Southern
California Association of Governments
(SCAG)), each undertook a process to
identify and evaluate potential
reasonably available control measures
that could contribute to expeditious
attainment of the PM2.5 standards in the
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South Coast nonattainment area. These
RACM/RACT analyses address control
measures for sources of direct PM2.5,
NOX, SOX, and VOC, which are the
State’s selected attainment plan
precursors for the 1997 PM2.5 standards
in the South Coast (see section V.C.3
below). We describe each agency’s
efforts below.
a. District’s RACM/RACT Analysis and
Adopted Control Strategy
The District’s RACM/RACT analysis,
which focuses on stationary and area
source controls, is described in Chapter
6 and Appendix VI of the South Coast
2007 AQMP.
Since the 1970s, the District has
adopted stationary source control rules
that have resulted in significant
improvement of air quality in the South
Coast nonattainment area. When
command and control rules were no
longer within the limitations of
economic efficiency, the District began
using economic incentive approaches
with programs such as the Surplus OffRoad Opt-In for NOX (SOON) program
and the Carl Moyer program.18 19 While
the District still relies on command and
control regulations, the District’s control
strategies are now supplemented by
market incentive and compliance
flexibility approaches where
appropriate. These regulations and
strategies have yielded significant
emissions reductions from sources
under the District’s jurisdiction. In
developing the South Coast 2007
AQMP, the District conducted a process
to identify RACM for the South Coast
that involved public meetings to solicit
input, evaluation of EPA suggested
RACM and RACT, and evaluation of
other air agencies’ regulations. See
South Coast 2007 AQMP, Appendix VI.
To determine which measures would
be feasible for the South Coast, the
District looked at measures
implemented in other nonattainment
areas’ plans (including the San Joaquin
18 The Carl Moyer Memorial Air Quality
Standards Attainment Program (‘‘Carl Moyer
Program’’) provides incentive grants for engines,
equipment and other sources of pollution that are
cleaner than required, providing early or extra
emission reductions. Eligible projects include
cleaner on-road, off-road, marine, locomotive and
stationary agricultural pump engines. The program
achieves near-term reductions in emissions of NOX,
PM, and VOC or reactive organic gas (ROG) which
are necessary for California to meet its clean air
commitments under the SIP.
19 The SOON program provides funding
assistance to applicable fleets for the purchase of
commercially-available low-emission heavy-duty
engines to achieve near-term reduction of NOX
emissions from in-use off-road diesel vehicles. All
large fleets with a total statewide equipment
horsepower (hp) over 20,000 hp must apply for
funding. Fleets below 20,000 hp may voluntarily
participate in this program.
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Valley, the San Francisco Bay Area,
Sacramento, Ventura, Dallas-Fort Worth,
the Houston-Galveston area, and by the
Lake Michigan Air Directors
Consortium, or LADCO), and held
meetings with CARB, technical experts,
local government representatives, and
the public during development of the
South Coast 2007 AQMP. The District
sponsored an AQMP summit, which
generated 200 potential control
measures. In addition, the District
reviewed the list of control measures
suggested for consideration in EPA’s
PM2.5 implementation rule. The District
also reevaluated all 82 District rules and
regulations. The District then screened
the identified measures and rejected
those that affected few or no sources in
the South Coast, had already been
adopted as rules, or were in the process
of being adopted. The District evaluated
the remaining measures using baseline
inventories, available control
technologies, and potential emission
reductions as well as whether the
measure could be implemented on a
schedule that would contribute to
attainment of the PM2.5 standard
assuming a 2015 deadline. South Coast
2007 AQMP, Appendix VI.
In general, EPA proposes to find that
the District’s current rules and
regulations are equivalent to, or more
stringent than, those developed by other
air districts with respect to emissions of
PM2.5 and PM2.5 precursors. The District
is exploring several options for reducing
emissions further. These include the
feasibility of lowering emission limits
and increasing levels of control in order
to promote cleaner stationary source
technologies; lowering the VOC content
of coatings and solvents; establishing
standards and test methods for generic
equipment and lowering release or leak
thresholds; improving leak detection,
repair, inspection and maintenance; and
adding best management practices to
rules.
Based on its RACM/RACT evaluation
for stationary and area sources under its
jurisdiction, the District developed 37
stationary source control measures
which comprised all measures included
in other districts’ AQMPs, as well as
some new innovative measures. The
District determined that the few
available measures that District staff did
not include would not advance the
attainment date or contribute to RFP
due to the insignificant or
unquantifiable emissions reductions
that they would potentially generate.
See South Coast 2007 AQMP, Appendix
VI, page VI–7. Since submittal of the
AQMP in 2007, the District has
completed action on the majority of
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these rules and submitted them to EPA
for approval into the SIP.
From October 2002 through June
2006, the District adopted
approximately 17 rules to address its
commitment to achieve the reductions
committed to in the 2003 AQMP for the
South Coast. These rules included
controls on VOC emissions from
refineries and chemical plants, cocomposting operations, architectural
coatings, solvent cleaning operations,
oil and gas production wells, and
livestock waste. Many of the adopted
rules achieved more estimated
reductions in VOC, NOX and SOX than
were expected in the 2003 AQMP. A
summary of these rules, which are
included in the baseline emissions
estimates for the South Coast 2007
AQMP, is provided in Table 1–2 of the
South Coast 2007 AQMP. See South
Coast 2007 AQMP, Chapter 1, Table 1–
2 and Chapter 4, page 4–6, and Table B–
1 in Appendix B of the TSD for today’s
action.
In addition to the rules adopted for
the 2003 AQMP, the District has also
made new commitments in its South
Coast 2007 AQMP to achieve further
reductions from VOC, NOX, SOX and
direct PM2.5 sources in the South Coast
area. The District committed to adopt
and submit measures that will achieve
the following additional emissions
reductions: 10.8 tpd NOX, 10.4 tpd VOC,
2.9 tpd direct PM2.5 and 2.9 tpd SOX.20
See 2011 Progress Report, Appendix E,
Table 1. The District expects to meet its
emissions reductions commitments for
each of the pollutants by adopting new
control measures and programs found in
the Table 4–2A of the South Coast 2007
AQMP (see South Coast 2007 AQMP,
page 4–10 and CARB Staff Report on
South Coast 2007 AQMP, p. 18), as
updated in the 2011 Progress Report,
Appendix E, Tables 2 through 5 and
from additional actions summarized in
the CARB Staff Report on the South
Coast 2007 AQMP (see CARB Staff
Report on South Coast 2007 AQMP, p.
17). The new control measures and
additional actions are estimated to
achieve more of the District’s emission
reduction commitments. They include
new rules to regulate lubricants,
consumer products, non-RECLAIM
ovens, dryers and furnaces, space
heaters, facility modernizations,
livestock waste, residential wood
burning, and commercial cooking. The
South Coast 2007 AQMP also identifies
22 measures (beyond the new control
measures and additional actions just
discussed) for further review, which
may also yield additional reductions
towards the District’s commitments. As
discussed above, the District’s
commitment is to achieve the estimated
total tonnage reductions of each
pollutant because specific control
measures and actions as adopted may
provide more or less reductions than
estimated in the South Coast 2007
AQMP.
Finally, EPA notes that since the
adoption of the South Coast 2007
AQMP, the District has already adopted
and submitted many of the rules in the
South Coast 2007 AQMP that help fulfill
the District’s enforceable commitments
for additional emission reductions of
NOX, VOC, direct PM2.5 and SOX in the
South Coast area. Table 3 below
summarizes the status of these new
rules.
TABLE 2—SOUTH COAST
[Annual average day emissions in tons per day] a
SIP commitment by 2014
Pollutant
Commitment
VOC .........................................................................................................................................................
NOX ..........................................................................................................................................................
PM2.5 ........................................................................................................................................................
SOX ..........................................................................................................................................................
Achieved
10.4
10.8
2.9
2.9
Balance
14.4
7.60
1.00
4.01
+4.0
¥3.2
¥1.9
+1.11
Source: 2011 Progress Report, Appendix F, Table 1. The ‘‘Achieved’’ column in Table 2 reflects District rules submitted to EPA. Table 3 reflects emissions reductions EPA can credit towards the attainment demonstration.
TABLE 3—STATUS OF DISTRICT SHORT- AND INTERMEDIATE-TERM CONTROL MEASURES CREDITED IN SOUTH COAST
2007 AQMP ATTAINMENT DEMONSTRATION
Control
measure
Title
Rule No.
Emissions reduction
commitment in South
Coast 2007 AQMP
Emissions reductions
achieved a
1.0 tpd PM2.5; 0.44
74 FR 27716,
tpd VOC; 0.06 tpd
09.
NOX; 0.01 tpd SOX.
................................... 66 FR 36170,
2001.
3.9 tpd VOC ............. 75 FR 40726,
10.
3.5 tpd NOX .............. 75 FR 46845,
10.
4.0 tpd SOX .............. 76 FR 30896,
11.
VOC reductions sub- 71 FR 18216,
stituted by Rule
06.
1143.
0.04 tpd VOC ........... 74 FR 67821,
09.
0.01 tpd NOX ............ 75 FR 46845,
445
Woodburning fireplaces and wood stoves ..
1.0 tpd PM2.5 ............
BCM–05 ....
1138
Underfired charbroilers ................................
1.1 tpd PM2.5 ............
CTS–01 .....
1144
1147
3.5 tpd NOX ..............
CMB–02 ....
2002
Metalworking fluids and direct-contact lubricants.
NOX
reductions
from
miscellaneous
sources.
Further SOX reductions from RECLAIM .....
1.9 tpd VOC .............
CMB–01 ....
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BCM–03 ....
FUG–02 ....
461
Emissions Reductions from Gasoline
Transfer and Dispensing Facilities.
3.7 tpd VOC .............
FUG–04 ....
1149
None .........................
CMB–03 ....
1111
Storage Tank and Pipeline Cleaning and
Degassing.
Further NOX reductions from space heaters
20 CARB uses the term ROG (reactive organic
gases) where we use the term VOC (volatile organic
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2.9 tpd SOX ..............
0.8 tpd NOX ..............
compounds). We will use the term VOC in this
notice to refer to both ROG and VOC.
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SIP status
6/11/
7/11/
07/14/
08/04/
5/27/
4/11/
12/21/
8/4/10.
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TABLE 3—STATUS OF DISTRICT SHORT- AND INTERMEDIATE-TERM CONTROL MEASURES CREDITED IN SOUTH COAST
2007 AQMP ATTAINMENT DEMONSTRATION—Continued
Control
measure
Title
Emissions reduction
commitment in South
Coast 2007 AQMP
Emissions reductions
achieved a
Liquid and gaseous fuels—stationary ICEs
...................................
0.6 tpd NOX; 0.3 tpd
VOC.
VOC reductions substituted by Rule
1143.
...................................
Rule No.
MCS–01 ....
1110.2
FLX–02 .....
....................
Refinery pilot program .................................
0.7 tpd VOC; 0.4 tpd
PM2.5.
MOB–05 ....
2251
AB923 LDV high emitter program ...............
MOB–06 ....
....................
AB923 MDV high emitter program ..............
0.8 tpd VOC; 0.4 tpd
NOX.
0.5 tpd VOC; 0.5 tpd
NOX.
...................................
SIP status
74 FR 18995, 4/27/
09.
No rule associated
with this measure.
No rule associated
with this measure.
Measures Proposed for EPA Action or Soon to be Proposed for EPA Action
MCS–05 ....
MCS–01 ....
1127
1146
Livestock waste ...........................................
NOX from industrial, institutional, & commercial boilers, steam generators, and
process heaters.
0.8 tpd VOC.
1.2 tpd NOX; 0.4 tpd
PM2.5; 2.0 tpd
VOC.
MCS–01 ....
1146.1
NOX from small ind, inst, & comm’l boilers,
steam gens, and proc. Htrs.
...................................
...................................
CTS–04 .....
1143
Consumer Paint Thinners and Multi-Purpose Solvents.
2.1 tpd VOC .............
9.7 tpd VOC .............
..............................
Proposed limited approval/limited disapproval signed
June 21, 2011.
Proposed limited approval/limited disapproval signed
June 21, 2011.
Proposed approval
signed June 23,
2011.
SIP Commitment vs. SIP-Creditable Emissions Reductions
SIP
SIP
SIP
SIP
commitment—PM2.5 ........................
commitment—NOX .........................
commitment—VOC .........................
commitment—SOX .........................
2.9 tpd ...
10.8 tpd ..
10.4 tpd ..
2.9 tpd ...
Total
Total
Total
Total
SIP-creditable
SIP-creditable
SIP-creditable
SIP-creditable
PM2.5 reductions .................................................................
NOX reductions ..................................................................
VOC reductions ..................................................................
SOX reductions ..................................................................
1.2 tpd.
4.2 tpd.
14.4 tpd.
4.01 tpd.
wreier-aviles on DSKGBLS3C1PROD with PROPOSALS2
a From 2011 Progress Report, Appendix F, Tables 2–5. EPA can only credit rules that have been adopted, submitted to EPA, and approved for
credit in the SIP.
b. CARB’s RACM Analysis and Adopted
Control Strategy
Source categories for which CARB has
primary responsibility for reducing
emissions in California include most
new and existing on- and off-road
engines and vehicles, motor vehicle
fuels, and consumer products.
Given the need for significant
emissions reductions from mobile and
area sources to meet the NAAQS in
California nonattainment areas, the
State of California has been a leader in
the development of some of the most
stringent control measures nationwide
for on-road and off-road mobile sources
and the fuels that power them. In
addition, California has unique
authority under CAA section 209
(subject to a waiver by EPA) to adopt
and implement new emission standards
for many categories of on-road vehicles
and engines, and new and in-use offroad vehicles and engines.
California’s emissions standards have
reduced new car emissions by
99 percent and new truck emissions by
90 percent from uncontrolled levels.
2007 State Strategy, p. 37. The State is
also working with EPA on goods
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movement activities and is
implementing programs to reduce
emissions from ship auxiliary engines,
locomotives, harbor craft and new cargo
handling equipment. In addition, the
State has standards for lawn and garden
equipment, recreational vehicles and
boats, and other off-road sources that
require newly manufactured equipment
to be 80–98% cleaner than their
uncontrolled counterparts. Id. Finally,
the State has adopted many measures
that focus on achieving reductions from
in-use mobile sources that include more
stringent inspection and maintenance
(I/M) or ‘‘Smog Check’’ requirements,
truck and bus idling restrictions, and
various incentive programs.
Appendix A of the TSD includes a list
of all measures adopted by CARB
between 1990 and the beginning of
2007. These measures, reductions from
which are reflected in the Plan’s
baseline inventories, fall into two
categories: Measures that are subject to
a waiver of Federal pre-emption under
CAA section 209 (section 209 waiver
measures or waiver measures) and those
for which the State is not required to
obtain a waiver (non-waiver measures).
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EPA allows emission reduction credit
for measures that are granted a waiver
from Federal preemption through the
CAA section 209 waiver process. See
section II.F.4.a.i. of the TSD and EPA’s
final approval of the San Joaquin Valley
1-Hour Ozone Plan at 75 FR 10420,
10424 (March 8, 2010). Generally, the
State’s baseline non-waiver measures
have been approved by EPA into the SIP
and are fully creditable for meeting CAA
requirements. See TSD, Appendix A.
CARB developed its proposed 2007
State Strategy after an extensive public
consultation process to identify
potential SIP measures.21 From this
process, CARB identified and
committed to propose 15 new defined
measures. These measures focus on
cleaning up the in-use fleet as well as
increasing the stringency of emissions
standards for a number of engine
categories, fuels, and consumer
products. Many, if not most, of these
measures are being proposed for
21 More information on this public process
including presentations from the workshops and
symposium that preceded the adoption of the 2007
State Strategy can be found at https://
www.arb.ca.gov/planning/sip/2007sip/2007sip.htm.
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adoption for the first time anywhere in
the nation. They build on CARB’s
already comprehensive program
described above that addresses
emissions from all types of mobile
sources through both regulations and
incentive programs. See Appendix A of
the TSD. Table 4 below lists the defined
measures in the 2007 State Strategy and
their current adoption and approval
status. Table 5 provides the State’s
current estimate of the emissions
reductions in the South Coast
nonattainment area from these
measures.
TABLE 4—2007 STATE STRATEGY DEFINED MEASURES SCHEDULED FOR CONSIDERATION AND CURRENT STATUS
(UPDATED APRIL 2011)
State measure
Expected action year
Current status
Defined Measures in 2007 State Strategy
Smog Check Improvements .............................................
Expanded Vehicle Retirement (AB118) ............................
2007–2009 .........................
2007 ...................................
Modifications to Reformulated Gasoline Program ............
Cleaner In-use Heavy Duty Trucks ..................................
Auxiliary Ship Cold Ironing and Other Clean Technologies.
Cleaner Main Ship Engines and Fuels .............................
2007 ...................................
2007, 2008, 2010 ...............
2007–2008 .........................
Port Truck Modernization .................................................
Accelerated Introduction of Cleaner Locomotives ............
Clean Up Existing Harbor Crafts ......................................
Cleaner In-Use Off-Road Engines ....................................
New Emissions Standards for Recreational Boats ...........
Expanded Off-Road Recreational Vehicle Emissions
Standards.
Enhanced Vapor Recovery for Above Ground Storage
Tanks.
Additional evaporative emissions standards ....................
Consumer Products Program (I and II) ............................
Fuel: 2008–2011 ................
Engines: 2008 ....................
2007, 2008, 2010 ...............
2008 ...................................
2007, 2010 .........................
2007, 2010 .........................
2013 ...................................
2013 ...................................
Elements approved 75 FR 38023 (July 1, 2010). 22
Adopted CARB June 2009; Bureau of Automotive Repair September 2010.
Approved, 75 FR 26653 (May 2, 2010).
Proposed approval signed June 29, 2011.
Adopted December 2007.
Proposed approval signed June 29, 2011.
Adopted December 2007 and December 2008.
Implementation 2012.
Adopted November 2007, revised June 2010.
Waiver action pending.
Partial adoption, July 2008; additional action expected
2013.
Adopted November 2008; additional action expected
2013.
2008.
2009, 2013.
2008, 2009, 2011 ...............
Phase I approved November 4, 2009, 74 FR 57074;
Phase II approved May 12, 2011, 76 FR 27613.
Sources: 2009 State Strategy Update, p. 23 and 2011 Progress Report, Table 1, p. 8. Additional information from https://www.ca.arb.gov.
TABLE 5—CURRENTLY CREDITABLE EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS FROM DEFINED MEASURES IN THE 2007 STATE STRATEGY
FOR THE SOUTH COAST, AS REVISED APRIL 2011 (TONS PER DAY 2014)
State measure
Direct PM2.5
Smog Check Improvements (BAR) .................................................................................
Cleaner In-Use Heavy-Duty Trucks .................................................................................
Cleaner In-Use Off-Road Equipment (> 25 hp) ..............................................................
Ship Auxiliary Engine Cold Ironing & Clean Tech. .........................................................
Cleaner Main Ship Engines and Fuel—Main Engines ....................................................
Clean Up Existing Harbor Craft .......................................................................................
NOX
0.3
2.6
0
0.1
3.5
0.2
2.6
18.6
0.5
8.1
17.6
4.1
VOC
SOX
8.6
3.3
0.1
0.2
0.5
0.1
0
0
0
0.3
37
0
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Source: 2011 Progress Report, Appendix E, pp. 2 and 3. Only defined measures with direct PM2.5, VOC, SOX and/or NOX, reductions in the
South Coast are shown here.
In addition to the State’s
commitments to propose defined new
measures, the 2007 State Strategy
includes an enforceable commitment for
emissions reductions sufficient, in
combination with existing measures and
the District’s commitments, to attain the
PM2.5 NAAQS in the South Coast
nonattainment area by the requested
attainment date of April 5, 2015. For the
South Coast, these emission reductions
commitments are to achieve 152 tpd of
NOX, 46 tpd of VOC, 9 tpd of direct
PM2.5, and 20 tpd of SOX (see 2007 State
Strategy, p. 63 and CARB Resolution
07–28, Attachment B, p. 6). The nature
of this commitment is described in the
State Strategy as follows:
‘‘The total emission reductions from the
new measures necessary to attain the federal
standards are an enforceable State
commitment in the SIP. While the proposed
State Strategy includes estimates of the
emission reductions from each of the
individual new measures, it is important to
note that the commitment of the State
Strategy is to achieve the total emission
reductions necessary to attain the federal
standards, which would be the aggregate of
all existing and proposed new measures
combined. Therefore, if a particular measure
does not get its expected emission
reductions, the State still commits to
achieving the total aggregate emission
reductions, whether this is realized through
additional reductions from the new measures
or from alternative control measures or
incentive programs. If actual emission
decreases occur in any air basin for which
emission reduction commitments have been
22 California Assembly Bill 2289, passed in 2010,
requires the Bureau of Automotive Repair to direct
older vehicles to high performing auto technicians
and test stations for inspection and certification
effective 2013. Reductions shown for the
SmogCheck program in the 2011 Progress Report do
not include reductions from AB 2289
improvements. See CARB Progress Report
supplement, attachment 5.
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made that are greater than the projected
emissions reductions from the adopted
measures in the State Strategy, the actual
emission decreases may be counted toward
meeting ARB’s total emission reduction
commitments.’’
CARB Resolution 07–28 (September 27,
2007), Appendix B, p. 3.
wreier-aviles on DSKGBLS3C1PROD with PROPOSALS2
c. The Local Jurisdiction’s RACM
Analysis
The local jurisdiction’s RACM
analysis was conducted by the
metropolitan planning organization
(MPO) for the South Coast region, the
Southern California Association of
Governments (SCAG). This analysis,
which focused on transportation control
measures (TCMs), and the results of this
analysis are described in Appendix IV–
C of the South Coast 2007 AQMP. The
TCMs in the South Coast 2007 AQMP
are derived from TCM projects in the
2006 SCAG Regional Transportation
Improvement Program (RTIP). This
analysis, described beginning on page
49 of Appendix IV–C of the South Coast
2007 AQMP, resulted in extensive local
government commitments to implement
programs to reduce auto travel and
improve traffic flow. South Coast 2007
AQMP page 6–6 and Appendix IV–C.
SCAG also provided reasoned
justifications for any measures that it
did not adopt. Attachment A to
Appendix IV–C contains an extensive
list of TCMs in process and newly
programmed TCMs. The enforceable
commitment from SCAG and the
transportation agencies was to fund and
implement projects in the first two years
of the 2006 Regional Transportation
Improvement Program (RTIP).
3. Proposed Actions on RACM/RACT
Demonstration and Adopted Control
Strategy
We propose to find that there are, at
this time, no additional reasonably
available measures that individually or
collectively would advance attainment
of the PM2.5 NAAQS in the South Coast
nonattainment area by one year or more.
This proposal is based on our review of
potential RACM/RACT in the revised
2007 South Coast AQMP and the 2007
State Strategy; the District’s and State’s
adopted control strategies, including
their commitments to adopt measures
and their progress in meeting those
commitments; and our proposed
concurrence (discussed below in section
V.C.3) with the State’s determination
that SOX, NOX, and VOC are, and
ammonia is not, attainment plan
precursors per 40 CFR 51.1002(c).
Therefore, we propose to find that the
relevant portions of the South Coast
2007 AQMP and the 2007 State Strategy
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provide for the implementation of
RACM/RACT as required by CAA
section 172(c)(1) and 40 CFR 51.1010.
Because they will strengthen the
California SIP, we are also proposing to
approve, the District’s commitments to
adopt and implement specific control
measures on the schedule identified in
Tables 2–5 of Appendix E in the 2011
Progress Report, to the extent that these
commitments have not yet been
fulfilled, and to achieve specific
aggregate emissions reductions of direct
PM2.5, NOX, VOC and SOX by specific
years as given in Table 1 of the 2011
Progress Report (and Table 2 in today’s
proposal).
We are also proposing to approve
CARB’s commitments to propose certain
defined measures, as given on Table
B–1 in Appendix B of the 2011 Progress
Report, and to achieve total aggregate
emissions reductions necessary to attain
the 1997 PM2.5 standards in the South
Coast nonattainment area, whether these
reductions are realized from the new
measures, alternative control measures,
incentive programs, or other actual
emissions decreases. See CARB
Resolution 07–28 (September 27, 2007),
Appendix B, p. 3. This commitment is
to aggregate emissions reductions of 152
tpd of NOX, 46 tpd of VOC, 9 tpd of
direct PM2.5, and 20 tpd of SOX in the
South Coast by 2014 (see page 20 of the
2009 State Strategy Status Report).
C. Attainment Demonstration
1. Requirements for Attainment
Demonstration
CAA section 172 requires a State to
submit a plan for each of its
nonattainment areas that demonstrates
attainment of the applicable ambient air
quality standard as expeditiously as
practicable but no later than the
specified attainment date. Under the
PM2.5 implementation rule, this
demonstration should consist of four
parts:
(1) Technical analyses that locate,
identify, and quantify sources of
emissions that are contributing to
violations of the PM2.5 NAAQS;
(2) Analyses of future year emissions
reductions and air quality improvement
resulting from already-adopted national,
State, and local programs and from
potential new State and local measures
to meet the RACT, RACM, and RFP
requirements in the area;
(3) Adopted emissions reduction
measures with schedules for
implementation; and
(4) Contingency measures required
under section 172(c)(9) of the CAA.
See 40 CFR 51.1007; 72 FR 20586, at
20605.
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The requirements for the first two
parts are described in the sections on
emissions inventories and RACM/RACT
above and in the sections on air quality
modeling, PM2.5 precursors, extension
of attainment date, and attainment
demonstrations that follow immediately
below. Requirements for the third and
fourth parts are described in the
sections on the control strategy and the
contingency measures, respectively.
2. Air Quality Modeling in the South
Coast 2007 AQMP
The procedures for modeling
attainment of the PM2.5 NAAQS as part
of an attainment SIP are contained in
EPA’s ‘‘Guidance on the Use of Models
and Other Analyses for Demonstrating
Attainment of Air Quality Goals for the
8–Hour Ozone and PM2.5 NAAQS and
Regional Haze.’’ (Guidance).23 A brief
description of the modeling used to
support South Coast’s attainment
demonstration follows. For more
detailed information about the
modeling, please refer to the TSD
associated with this rulemaking, which
can be found in the docket for today’s
action.
Air quality modeling is used to
establish emission attainment targets, a
combination of emissions of PM2.5 and
PM2.5 precursors that the nonattainment
area can accommodate without
exceeding the NAAQS, and to assess
whether the proposed control strategy
will result in attainment of the NAAQS
by the applicable attainment date. Air
quality modeling is performed for a base
year and compared to air quality
monitoring data to determine model
performance. Once the performance is
determined to be acceptable, future year
emission inventory changes are
simulated to determine the relationship
between emission reductions and
changes in ambient air quality
throughout the nonattainment area.
The attainment demonstration for the
South Coast nonattainment area is based
on the CAMx model using the ‘‘one
atmosphere’’ approach comprised of the
carbon bond IV (CB–IV) gas phased
chemistry and a static two-mode
particle size aerosol.24 CAMx annual
average PM2.5 modeling simulations
were generated for 2005 and 2014
baseline emissions scenarios and for a
2014 controlled emissions scenario by
23 The guidance is available at https://
www.epa.gov/ttn/scram/guidance_sip.htm and in
the docket for today’s action.
24 CAMx is the Comprehensive Air Quality Model
with extensions, an Eulerian photochemical
dispersion model that allows for integrated ‘‘oneatmosphere’’ assessments of gaseous and particulate
air pollution (ozone, PM2.5, PM10, air toxics) over
many scales ranging from sub-urban to continental.
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the District. District staff compared the
base year model output to speciated
particulate data measured in 2005 as
part of the Multiple Air Toxics III
(MATES–III) program. Model
specifications, such as boundary
conditions, domain size, and resolution,
meet EPA criteria and are discussed in
the TSD. Model performance for total
mass (the sum of specific individual
species), as well as for specific
individual species, is adequate and is
discussed in the TSD.
The District’s attainment analysis
follows EPA’s guideline technique of
applying component-specific relative
response factors (RRF) to monitored
data throughout the South Coast
nonattainment area. A RRF is the ratio
of the model’s future to current
(baseline) predictions at a monitor.
Future PM2.5 concentrations are
estimated at existing monitoring sites by
multiplying a modeled RRF at the grid
cell locations of each monitor by the
observation-based, monitor-specific,
‘‘baseline’’ design value. A separate RRF
is calculated for each of the PM2.5
precursors. Future PM2.5 design values
were estimated by District staff at
existing monitoring sites throughout the
South Coast nonattainment area by
multiplying modeled RRFs for each
monitor times the observed
‘‘component-specific design value.’’ The
future PM2.5 design values were then
compared to the annual and 24-hour
NAAQS to demonstrate attainment at
each site. The maximum 2014 predicted
PM2.5 annual design value is 15.0 μg/m3
or lower.25
The District also performed the
recommended unmonitored area
analysis and it indicated that there were
no additional nonattainment problems
in unmonitored areas. The future PM2.5
design values were also compared to the
24-hour PM2.5 NAAQS to demonstrate
attainment at each site. The maximum
predicted 2014 24-hour PM2.5 design
value at any site is 56.6 μg/m3; this is
lower than the 24-hour PM2.5 NAAQS of
65 μg/m3. EPA guidance also
recommends the use of supplemental
data analyses to support the air quality
modeling. The District used air quality
trends and emission inventory trends as
‘‘weight of evidence’’ to support the air
quality modeling for the attainment
demonstration.
The District used its air quality
modeling to establish emissions
reduction targets to be used in
developing the control strategy for the
nonattainment SIP. Once a proposed
control strategy was developed, the
District then used the photochemical
modeling to verify that the projected
emissions reductions would result in
attainment of the 1997 PM2.5 standards
throughout the South Coast
nonattainment area by the target
attainment date of 2014. The estimated
carrying capacities for the South Coast
nonattainment area are included in
Table 6.26 27
25 See 40 CFR part 50 Appendix N, 4.1(a). A
predicted design value of 15.04 μg/m3 or lower is
considered modeled attainment of the annual
standard.
emission carrying capacity estimates are PM2.5—86
tons/day, NOX—460 tons/day, SOX—20 tons/day,
and VOC—474 tons/day (see CARB Staff Report on
the South Coast AQMP, page ES–3).
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decreases in the projected 2014 baseline
due to both methodology changes (e.g.,
changes to construction equipment
emissions factors) and the revised
economic forecasts are 10 percent for
NOX, 2 percent for direct PM2.5,
2 percent for VOC, and a 30 percent
increase for SOX.28 The effect of the
revisions in the target year as compared
to the base year are about the same for
direct PM2.5, and somewhat larger for
NOX. The overall effect of the inventory
revisions is thus to increase the
TABLE 6—EMISSIONS CARRYING CA- emission reductions from base year to
PACITY ESTIMATES FOR THE SOUTH attainment year, in a relative sense.
COAST NONATTAINMENT AREA FOR Likewise, the revisions would tend to
make the relative reduction factors
PM2.5 ATTAINMENT
(factors used to scale the modeling
[Tons/day, based on planning inventory]
results) lower, decreasing the projected
PM2.5 concentrations in the attainment
NOX
SOX
VOC
PM2.5
year and effectively making the
attainment demonstration over-estimate
87
454
19
469
the level of emissions reductions
We are proposing to approve the air
needed to attain. Based on model
quality modeling demonstration in the
sensitivity results provided by CARB,
South Coast 2007 AQMP as meeting the EPA estimates that ambient
requirements of the CAA consistent
concentrations would be slightly lower
with EPA guidance. We provide further
in the attainment year due to the
discussion in the TSD.
emission inventory revisions. EPA
therefore concludes that the attainment
Effect of Inventory Changes on the Air
demonstration remains valid, despite
Quality Modeling and Attainment
the emission inventory changes.
Demonstrations
3. PM2.5 Precursors Addressed in the
As discussed above in section V.A.,
South Coast 2007 AQMP
CARB has recently updated the
inventories for several mobile source
EPA recognizes NOX, SO2, VOCs, and
categories for both the base and future
ammonia as the main precursor gases
years as well as revised the economic
associated with the formation of
forecasts on which the future
secondary PM2.5 in the ambient air.
inventories were based. Ideally, new
These gas-phase PM2.5 precursors
attainment demonstration modeling
undergo chemical reactions in the
would be performed to evaluate the
atmosphere to form secondary
effect of these updates and revisions;
particulate matter. Formation of
however, remodeling is a substantial
secondary PM2.5 depends on numerous
undertaking and would not necessarily
factors including the concentrations of
change the basic conclusions of the
precursors; the concentrations of other
existing attainment demonstration
gaseous reactive species; atmospheric
analysis.
conditions including solar radiation,
Relative to emissions in the South
temperature, and relative humidity; and
Coast 2007 AQMP, the decreases in the
the interactions of precursors with
base year 2002 emissions inventory due preexisting particles and with cloud or
to the inventory updates are about
fog droplets. 72 FR 20586, at 20589.
4 percent for NOX and 5 percent for
As discussed previously, a state must
direct PM2.5 emissions. CARB Progress
submit emissions inventories for each of
Report supplement, Attachment 1. For
the four PM2.5 precursor pollutants.
the 2014 attainment target year, the
72 FR 20586, at 20589 and 40 CFR
51.1008(a)(1). However, the overall
26 ‘‘Carrying capacity’’ is defined as the maximum
contribution of different precursors to
level of emissions that enable the attainment and
maintenance of an ambient air quality standard for
PM2.5 formation and the effectiveness of
a pollutant. (see South Coast 2007 AQMP, page 5–
alternative potential control measures
27.)
will vary by area. Thus, the precursors
27 The CARB Staff Report for the South Coast
that a state should regulate to attain the
2007 AQMP presents a slightly different emissions
PM2.5 NAAQS could also vary to some
carrying capacity which relies more heavily on
reductions of primary PM2.5 and less heavily on
extent from area to area. 72 FR 20586,
reductions of precursors to PM2.5. The Staff Report’s at 20589.
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28 By 2014, SO emissions reach the attainment
X
target due to adopted State and District rules.
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In the PM2.5 implementation rule,
EPA did not make a finding that all
potential PM2.5 precursors must be
controlled in each specific
nonattainment area. See 72 FR 20586, at
20589. Instead, for the reasons
explained in the rule’s preamble, a state
must evaluate control measures for
sources of SO2 in addition to sources of
direct PM2.5 in all nonattainment areas.
40 CFR 51.1002(c) and (c)(1). A state
must also evaluate control measures for
sources of NOX unless the State and/or
EPA determine that control of NOX
emissions would not significantly
reduce PM2.5 concentrations in the
specific nonattainment area. 40 CFR
51.1002(c)(2). In contrast, EPA has
determined in the PM2.5 implementation
rule that a state does not need to address
controls for sources of VOC and
ammonia unless the state and/or EPA
make a technical demonstration that
controls on such sources would
significantly contribute to reducing
PM2.5 concentrations in the specific
nonattainment area at issue. 40 CFR
51.1002(c)(3) and (4). Such a
demonstration is required ‘‘if the
administrative record related to
development of its SIP shows that the
presumption is not technically justified
for that area.’’ 40 CFR 51.1002(c)(5).
‘‘Significantly contributes’’ in this
context means that a significant
reduction in emissions of the precursor
from sources in the area would be
projected to provide a significant
reduction in PM2.5 concentrations in the
area. 72 FR 20586 at 20590. Although
EPA did not establish a quantitative test
for determining what constitutes a
significant change, EPA noted that even
relatively small reductions in PM2.5
levels are estimated to result in
worthwhile public health benefits. Id.
EPA further explained that a technical
demonstration to reverse the
presumption for NOX, VOC, or ammonia
in any area could consider the
emissions inventory, speciation data,
modeling information, or other special
studies such as monitoring of additional
compounds, receptor modeling, or
special monitoring studies. 72 FR 20586
at 20596–20597. These factors could
indicate that the emissions or ambient
concentration contributions of a
precursor, or the sensitivity of ambient
concentrations to changes in precursor
emissions, differs for a specific
nonattainment area from the
presumption EPA established for that
precursor in the PM2.5 implementation
rule.
In the South Coast nonattainment
area, PM2.5 can be directly emitted, such
as from road dust, diesel soot,
combustion products, and other sources
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(‘‘primary particles’’), or formed through
atmospheric chemical reactions of
precursor chemicals (‘‘secondary
particles’’). Examples of secondary
particles include sulfates, nitrates, and
complex carbon compounds formed
from reactions of NOX, SOX, VOC, and
ammonia. The attainment
demonstration for the South Coast PM2.5
nonattainment area addresses
ammonium nitrate and ammonium
sulfate because they represent a
dominant fraction of PM2.5 components
in this area and are formed through
secondary reactions of the precursors
NOX, SOX, VOC and ammonia. The
District’s analysis indicates that SOX
reductions followed by directly-emitted
PM2.5 and NOX reductions provide the
greatest ambient PM2.5 reductions. VOC
reductions can also contribute to
improving ambient PM2.5 concentrations
and will occur concurrently as a result
of the District’s 8-hour ozone NAAQS
strategy.29 The PM2.5 implementation
rule allows States or EPA to evaluate
which PM2.5 precursors should be
precursors for regulatory purposes in a
particular nonattainment area, based on
the facts and circumstances of such
area. SCAQMD has elected to consider
VOCs as regulatory precursors for the
purpose of this SIP, based on their
modeling analysis, which considered
the sensitivity of PM2.5 formation to
VOC emission reduction. EPA agrees
that the District’s determination to
consider VOC as a precursor for this SIP
is appropriate in this nonattainment
area.
Starting in 2011, the PM2.5
implementation rule requires that states
must also address condensable
particulate matter (CPM), including
estimates of CPM in emissions
inventories, modeling, and control
strategies.
4. Extension of the Attainment Date
CAA section 172(a)(2) provides that
an area’s attainment date ‘‘shall be the
date by which attainment can be
achieved as expeditiously as
practicable, but no later than 5 years
from the date such area was designated
nonattainment * * *, except that the
Administrator may extend the
attainment date to the extent the
Administrator determines appropriate,
for a period no greater than 10 years
from the date of designation as
nonattainment considering the severity
of nonattainment and the availability
29 See page 5–17 of Chapter 5 of the South Coast
2007 AQMP. We approved the South Coast RACT
SIP on December 18, 2008 (see 73 FR 76947) as
complying with the relevant CAA requirements for
RACT SIPs for 8-hour ozone.
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and feasibility of pollution control
measures.’’
Because the effective date of
designations for the 1997 PM2.5
standards was April 5, 2005 (70 FR 944),
the initial attainment date for PM2.5
nonattainment areas is as expeditiously
as practicable but not later than April 5,
2010. For any areas that are granted a
full five-year attainment date extension
under section 172, the attainment date
would be no later than April 5, 2015.
Section 51.1004 of the PM2.5
implementation rule addresses the
attainment date requirement. Section
51.1004(b) requires a State to submit an
attainment demonstration justifying its
proposed attainment date and provides
that EPA will approve an attainment
date when we approve that
demonstration.
States that request an extension of the
attainment date under CAA section
172(a)(2) must provide sufficient
information to show that attainment by
April 5, 2010 is impracticable due to the
severity of the nonattainment problem
in the area and the lack of available and
feasible control measures to provide for
faster attainment. 40 CFR 51.1004(b).
States must also demonstrate that all
RACM and RACT for the area are being
implemented to bring about attainment
of the standard by the most expeditious
alternative date practicable for the area.
72 FR 20586, at 20601.
For urban areas nationwide, the South
Coast nonattainment area has the
second highest average annual mean
PM2.5 concentration (ranking only
behind the San Joaquin Valley in
California for the 1997 PM2.5 standards).
Annual PM2.5 concentrations recorded
over the last few years at the Mira Loma
monitoring site continue to exceed the
1997 PM2.5 NAAQS.30 The PM2.5
problem in the South Coast is complex,
caused by both direct PM2.5 and
secondary PM2.5, and compounded by
the topographical and meteorological
conditions for the area that are very
conducive to the formation and
concentration of PM2.5 particles. South
Coast 2007 AQMP, chapter 4.
As discussed in section V.B.2. above,
the District’s strategy for attaining the
PM2.5 standard relies on reductions of
directly-emitted PM2.5 as well as the
PM2.5 precursor pollutants NOX, VOC,
and SOX. The South Coast
nonattainment area needs significant
reductions in PM2.5, NOX, VOC, and
SOX to demonstrate attainment. Further
reducing these pollutants is challenging,
because the State and District have
already adopted stringent control
measures for most
30 See
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sources of direct PM2.5, NOX, VOC, and
SOX emissions. Moreover, attainment in
the South Coast nonattainment area
depends on emissions reductions that
offset the emissions increases associated
with projected increases in population,
economic growth, and goods movement.
The direct PM2.5 reductions are
achieved primarily from open burning
and residential wood combustion
control measures. These types of control
measures present special
implementation challenges (e.g., the
large number of individuals subject to
regulation and the difficulty of applying
conventional technological control
solutions). NOX reductions come largely
from District rules for fuel combustion
sources, and from the State’s mobile
source rules. VOC reductions come from
District rules governing the petroleum
industry, as well as consumer products
rules at both the State and local level.
SOX reductions identified in the plan
come from District rules such as
RECLAIM, and State measures related to
ships.
Because of the necessity of obtaining
additional emissions reductions from
these source categories in the South
Coast nonattainment area and the need
to conduct significant public outreach if
applicable control approaches are to be
effective, EPA agrees with the District
and CARB that the South Coast 2007
AQMP reflects expeditious
implementation of the programs during
the 2008–2014 time frame. EPA also
agrees that the implementation schedule
for enhanced stationary source controls
is expeditious, taking into account the
time necessary for purchase and
installation of the required control
technologies. The District’s control
strategies are discussed in greater detail
in Chapter 4 of the South Coast 2007
AQMP, and in section V.B.2 above.
In addition, the State has adopted
standards for many categories of on-road
and off-road vehicles and engines,
gasoline and diesel fuels, as well as
improvements to California’s vehicle
inspection and maintenance program,
and programs requiring the retrofitting
and replacement of in-use trucks, buses,
and off-road equipment. The State is
implementing these rules and programs
as expeditiously as practicable, and it is
not feasible to accelerate the schedule
for new emissions standards under the
State and Federal mobile source control
programs.
EPA also expects that CARB and the
District will continue to investigate
opportunities to accelerate progress as
new control opportunities arise, and
that the agencies will promptly adopt
and expeditiously implement any new
measures found to be feasible in the
future.
As discussed in section V.B.3 above,
we are proposing to approve the RACM/
RACT demonstration in the South Coast
2007 AQMP. As discussed below in
section V.C.6., we are also proposing to
approve the attainment demonstration
in the SIP. Based on these proposed
approvals, EPA is proposing to grant an
extension of the attainment date for the
1997 PM2.5 standards in the South Coast
to April 5, 2015 pursuant to CAA
section 172(b)(2) and 40 CFR 51.1004(b).
5. Attainment Demonstration
Table 7 below summarizes the
reductions that are relied on in the
South Coast 2007 AQMP to demonstrate
attainment by April 5, 2015.
TABLE 7—SUMMARY OF EMISSIONS REDUCTION PROGRESS FOR SOUTH COAST’S PM2.5 ATTAINMENT DEMONSTRATION
(TONS PER DAY, TPD), UPDATED APRIL 2011
NOX
2002 baseline (2011 SIP Revision, p. 9 ..........................................................
2014 attainment targets (ARB staff Report for South Coast 2007 AQMP) * ..
2014 baseline (2011 SIP Revision, Appendix E, p. 2) ** ................................
2014 remaining emissions after ‘‘adopted controls’’ (2011 SIP Revision, Appendix E, p. 2) *** .........................................................................................
Remaining emissions reduction/enforceable commitment **** ........................
VOC
Direct PM2.5
SOX
1093
460
589
844
474
518
99
86
95
53
20
61
530
70 (11%)
485
11 (3%)
87
1 (8%)
20
0 0%
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* The attainment targets have not changed from the November 22, 2010 proposal.
** The 2014 baseline is revised to reflect new estimates which take into account the impact of the economic recession on and changes in inventory methodologies for diesel trucks, goods movement and construction equipment. See 2011 Progress Report, Appendix E, page 2, ‘‘South
Coast Air Basin 2014 Progress to Date on ARB Rules’’ table, ‘‘New 2014 Baseline’’ numbers.
*** The 2014 remaining emissions number is what remains after crediting the reductions from ‘‘adopted controls.’’ By ‘‘adopted controls’’ we
mean State or district control measures that EPA has approved or proposed to approve into the SIP, or state mobile source measures that are
subject to a CAA section 209 waiver. See section V.B.2.b of this notice. In separate actions, EPA has recently proposed to approve several of
the measures listed in the 2011 Progress Report SIP Revision, Appendix E tables (e.g., CARB’s diesel truck rules and the Ocean-going Vessels
fuel rule).
**** This row reflects the State’s aggregate emissions reduction commitment, including the 10 tpd NOX federal assignment. See 2011 Progress
Report, p. 5.
As shown in this table, the majority
of the emissions reductions that the
State projects are needed for PM2.5
attainment in the South Coast by April
5, 2015 come from baseline reductions.
These baseline reductions include not
only the benefit of numerous adopted
District and State measures which
generally have been approved by EPA
either through the SIP process or the
CAA section 209 waiver process but
also the effect of the recent economic
recession and revised emission factors
and activity data on projected future
inventories. See 2011 Progress Report,
Appendix E and Appendices A and B of
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the TSD. The remaining reductions
needed for attainment are to be achieved
by the District’s and CARB’s
commitments to reduce emissions in the
South Coast nonattainment area. Since
the submittal of the South Coast 2007
AQMP and the 2007 State Strategy,
SCAQMD and CARB have adopted
measures (summarized in Table 8
below) that can be credited towards
reducing the aggregate emissions
reductions in the enforceable
commitments.
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a. Enforceable Commitments
As shown above, measures already
adopted by the District and CARB (both
prior to and as part of the South Coast
2007 AQMP) provide the majority of
emissions reductions the State projects
are needed to demonstrate attainment.
The balance of the needed reductions is
in the form of enforceable commitments
by the District and CARB.
The CAA allows approval of
enforceable commitments that are
limited in scope where circumstances
exist that warrant the use of such
commitments in place of adopted
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measures.31 Once EPA determines that
circumstances warrant consideration of
an enforceable commitment, EPA
considers three factors in determining
whether to approve the CAA
requirement that relies on the
enforceable commitment: (a) Does the
commitment address a limited portion
of the CAA requirement; (b) is the state
capable of fulfilling its commitment;
and (c) is the commitment for a
reasonable and appropriate period of
time.32
With respect to the South Coast 2007
AQMP and 2007 State Strategy,
circumstances warrant the consideration
of enforceable commitments as part of
the attainment demonstration for the
South Coast nonattainment area. As
shown in Table 7 above, the majority of
emission reductions that are needed to
demonstrate attainment and RFP in the
South Coast nonattainment area come
from rules and regulations that were
adopted prior to the AQMP’s submittal
in November 2007, i.e., they come from
the baseline measures.
As a result of these already-adopted
State and District measures, most
sources in the South Coast
nonattainment area were already subject
31 Commitments approved by EPA under section
110(k)(3) of the CAA are enforceable by EPA and
citizens under, respectively, sections 113 and 304
of the CAA. In the past, EPA has approved
enforceable commitments and courts have enforced
these actions against states that failed to comply
with those commitments: See, e.g., American Lung
Ass’n of N.J. v. Kean, 670 F. Supp. 1285 (D.N.J.
1987), aff’d, 871 F.2d 319 (3rd Cir. 1989); NRDC,
Inc. v. N.Y. State Dept. of Env. Cons., 668 F. Supp.
848 (S.D.N.Y. 1987); Citizens for a Better Env’t v.
Deukmejian, 731 F. Supp. 1448, recon. granted in
par, 746 F. Supp. 976 (N.D. Cal. 1990); Coalition for
Clean Air v. South Coast Air Quality Mgt. Dist., No.
CV 97–6916–HLH, (C.D. Cal. Aug. 27, 1999).
Further, if a state fails to meet its commitments,
EPA could make a finding of failure to implement
the SIP under CAA Section 179(a), which starts an
18-month period for the State to correct the nonimplementation before mandatory sanctions are
imposed. CAA section 110(a)(2)(A) provides that
each SIP ‘‘shall include enforceable emission
limitations and other control measures, means or
techniques * * * as well as schedules and
timetables for compliance, as may be necessary or
appropriate to meet the applicable requirement of
the Act.’’ Section 172(c)(6) of the Act, which
applies to nonattainment SIPs, is virtually identical
to section 110(a)(2)(A). The language in these
sections of the CAA is quite broad, allowing a SIP
to contain any ‘‘means or techniques’’ that EPA
determines are ‘‘necessary or appropriate’’ to meet
CAA requirements, such that the area will attain as
expeditiously as practicable, but no later than the
designated date. Furthermore, the express
allowance for ‘‘schedules and timetables’’
demonstrates that Congress understood that all
required controls might not have to be in place
before a SIP could be fully approved.
32 The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit
upheld EPA’s interpretation of CAA sections
110(a)(2)(A) and 172(c)(6) and the Agency’s use and
application of the three factor test in approving
enforceable commitments in the 1-hour ozone SIP
for Houston-Galveston. BCCA Appeal Group et al.
v. EPA et al., 355 F.3d 817 (5th Cir. 2003).
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to stringent rules prior to the
development of the 2007 State Strategy
and the South Coast 2007 AQMP,
leaving fewer and more technologically
challenging opportunities to reduce
emissions. In the South Coast 2007
AQMP and the 2009 revisions to the
2007 State Strategy, the District and
CARB identified potential control
measures that could achieve the
additional emissions reductions needed
for attainment. However, the timeline
needed to develop, adopt, and
implement these measures went well
beyond the April 5, 2008 33 CAA
deadline to submit the PM2.5 plan. As
discussed above and below, since 2007,
the District and State have made
progress in adopting measures to meet
their commitments, but have not yet
completely fulfilled them. Given these
circumstances, the 2007 AQMP and the
2007 State Strategy’s reliance on
enforceable commitments is warranted.
We now consider the three factors EPA
uses to determine whether the use of
enforceable commitments in lieu of
adopted measures to meet CAA
planning requirements is approvable.
i. The Commitment Represents a
Limited Portion of Required Reductions
For the first factor, we look to see if
the commitment addresses a limited
portion of a statutory requirement, such
as the amount of emissions reductions
needed in a nonattainment area.
As shown in Table 7, the remaining
portion of the enforceable commitments
in the South Coast 2007 AQMP and the
revised 2007 State Strategy are 70 tpd
NOX, 11 tpd VOC and 1 tpd direct PM2.5
after accounting for measures that are
either approved or proposed for
approval and revisions to the future year
baseline inventories resulting from
changes to the plan’s economic forecasts
and other factors. When compared to
the total reductions needed by 2014 for
PM2.5 attainment in the South Coast
nonattainment area on a per-pollutant
basis, these remaining commitments
represent approximately 11 percent of
the NOX reductions, 3 percent of the
VOC reductions and 8 percent of the
direct PM2.5 reductions needed to attain
the 1997 PM2.5 standards in the South
Coast nonattainment area.
We find that the reductions remaining
as enforceable commitments in the 2007
AQMP and the 2007 State Strategy
33 The 2007 State Strategy and the South Coast
2007 AQMP were developed to address both the
1997 PM2.5 NAAQS and the 1997 8-hour ozone
NAAQS. The 8-hour ozone SIPs were due in
November 2007, and the development and adoption
of these plans was timed to coordinate with this
submittal date. 2007 State Strategy, p. 1, and South
Coast 2007 AQMP, p. ES–3.
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represent a limited portion of the total
emissions reductions needed to meet
the statutory requirement for attainment
in the South Coast nonattainment area
and therefore satisfy the first factor.
Overall, the level of reductions
remaining as commitments is
approximately within the 10 percent
range that EPA has historically accepted
in approving attainment
demonstrations.34
ii. The State is Capable of Fulfilling Its
Commitment
For the second factor, we consider
whether the State and District are
capable of fulfilling their commitments.
As discussed above, CARB has adopted
and submitted a 2009 State Strategy
Status Report and a 2011 Progress
Report, which update and revise the
2007 State Strategy. These reports show
that CARB has made significant progress
in meeting its enforceable commitments
for the South Coast and several other
nonattainment areas in California.
Additional ongoing programs that
address locomotives, recreational boats,
and other measures have yet to be
quantified but are expected to reduce
NOX and direct PM2.5 emissions in the
South Coast by 2014. See 2011 Progress
Report, Appendix E, page 2.
The District has already exceeded its
commitment for reducing VOC and SOX
emissions and is working to meet the
commitment to reduce NOX and directly
emitted PM2.5. See Tables 2 and 3. The
District is also continuing to work to
identify and adopt additional measures
that will reduce emissions.
Beyond the rules discussed above,
both CARB and the District have wellfunded incentive grant programs to
reduce emissions from the on- and offroad engine fleets. Reductions from
several of these programs have yet to be
quantified and/or credited in the
attainment demonstration. Finally, we
note that the South Coast has
experienced significant improvements
in its PM2.5 air quality in the past few
years.
Given the evidence of the State’s and
District’s efforts to date and their
continuing efforts to reduce emissions,
we find that the State and District are
capable of meeting their enforceable
commitments to achieve the necessary
reductions needed to attain the 1997
PM2.5 standards in the South Coast
nonattainment area by its proposed
attainment date of April 5, 2015.
34 See, for example, our approval of the SJV PM
10
Plan at 69 FR 30005 (May 26, 2004), the SJV 1-hour
ozone plan at 75 FR 10420 (March 8, 2010), and the
Houston-Galveston 1-hour ozone plan at 66 FR
57160 (November 14, 2001).
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iii. The Commitment is for a Reasonable
and Appropriate Period of Time
For the third and final factor, we
consider whether the commitment is for
a reasonable and appropriate period of
time.
In order to meet the commitments to
reduce emissions to the levels needed to
attain the 1997 PM2.5 standards in the
South Coast nonattainment area, the
South Coast 2007 AQMP and the 2007
State Strategy included ambitious rule
development, adoption, and
implementation schedules, which both
the District and CARB have
substantially met. See 2011 Progress
Report, p. 9. EPA considers these
schedules to provide sufficient time to
achieve by 2014 the few remaining
reductions needed to attain by the
proposed attainment date of April 5,
2015. We, therefore, conclude that the
third factor is satisfied.
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b. Federal Reductions
As discussed in our November 2010
proposal and as shown in Table 7, the
South Coast 2007 AQMP assigns 10 tons
per day of NOX reductions to the
Federal government. However, because
the CAA does not authorize a State to
assign responsibility to the Federal
government for meeting SIP
requirements, we cannot accept the 10
tpd NOX emissions reductions
emissions reductions the District and
State assigned to the Federal
government in the South Coast 2007
AQMP.
The District has further addressed the
federal assignment by committing to an
additional reduction of 1 tpd NOX (see
2011 Progress Report, Appendix F, p. 5
and SCAQMD Governing Board
Resolution 11–9, March 4, 2011). In
addition, CARB has committed to
achieve the remaining portion of the
federal assignment in the 2011 Progress
Report and includes it in the remaining
commitment of 70 tpd of NOX. (See
2011 Progress Report, p. 5, and CARB
Executive Order S–11–010.) As we
stated in our November 2010 proposal,
we are not accepting the 10 tpd NOX
federal assignment as the CAA does not
allow for such assignment. We are
proposing, however, to approve the
State’s and District’s commitments to
achieve the emissions reductions
previously attributed to the federal
government.
6. Proposed Action on the Attainment
Demonstration
In order to approve a SIP’s attainment
demonstration, EPA must make several
findings and approve the plan’s
proposed attainment date.
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First, we must find that the
demonstration’s technical bases,
including the emissions inventories and
air quality modeling, are adequate. As
discussed above in section V.A and
V.C.2, we are proposing to approve both
the emissions inventories and the air
quality modeling on which the South
Coast 2007 AQMP’s attainment
demonstration and other provisions are
based.
Second, we must find that the SIP
submittal provides for expeditious
attainment through the implementation
of all RACM and RACT. As discussed
above in section V.B, we are proposing
to approve the RACM/RACT
demonstration in the South Coast 2007
AQMP.
Third, EPA must find that the
emissions reductions that are relied on
for attainment are creditable. As
discussed in section V.C.5, the South
Coast 2007 AQMP relies principally on
adopted and approved/waived rules to
achieve the emissions reductions
needed to attain the 1997 PM2.5
standards in the South Coast
nonattainment area by April 5, 2015.
The balance of the reductions is
currently in the form of enforceable
commitments that account for 11% of
the NOX, 8% of the direct PM2.5, and 3%
of the VOC emission reductions needed
from 2002 levels for attainment. See
Table 7.
EPA has previously accepted
enforceable commitments in lieu of
adopted control measures in attainment
demonstrations when circumstances
warrant it and the commitments meet
three criteria. As discussed above in
section V.C.5, we find that
circumstances here warrant the
consideration of enforceable
commitments and that the three criteria
are met: (1) Both the State and the
District have demonstrated their
capability to meet their commitments,
(2) the commitments constitute a
limited portion of the required
emissions reductions, and (3) the
commitments are for an appropriate
timeframe. Based on these conclusions,
we propose to allow the State to rely on
these limited enforceable commitments
in its attainment demonstration.
Finally, for a PM2.5 nonattainment
area that cannot attain within five years
of its designation as nonattainment, EPA
must grant an extension of the
attainment date in order to approve the
attainment demonstration for the area.
As discussed above in section V.C.4, we
propose to determine that a five-year
extension of the attainment date is
appropriate given the nonattainment
problem in the South Coast
nonattainment area and the availability
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and feasibility of control measures and,
therefore, to grant the State’s request to
extend the attainment date in the South
Coast nonattainment area to April 5,
2015. For the foregoing reasons, we are
proposing to approve the attainment
demonstration in the South Coast 2007
AQMP.
D. Reasonable Further Progress
Demonstration
1. Requirements for Reasonable Further
Progress
CAA Section 172(c)(2) requires that
plans for nonattainment areas shall
provide for reasonable further progress
(RFP). RFP is defined in section 171(1)
as ‘‘such annual incremental reductions
in emissions of the relevant air pollutant
as are required by this part or may
reasonably be required by the
Administrator for the purpose of
ensuring attainment of the applicable
[NAAQS] by the applicable date.’’
The PM2.5 implementation rule
requires submittal of an RFP plan at the
same time as the attainment
demonstration for any area for which
the State seeks an extension of the
attainment date beyond 2010. For areas
for which the state requests an
attainment date extension to 2015, such
as the South Coast nonattainment area,
the RFP plan must demonstrate that in
the applicable milestone years of 2009
and 2012, emissions in the area will be
at a level consistent with generally
linear progress in reducing emissions
between the base year and the
attainment year. 40 CFR 51.1009(d).
States may demonstrate this by showing
that emissions for each milestone year
are roughly equivalent to benchmark
emission levels for direct PM2.5
emissions and each PM2.5 attainment
plan precursor addressed in the
attainment plan. The steps for
determining the benchmark emissions
levels to demonstrate generally linear
progress are given in the PM2.5
implementation rule in 40 CFR
51.1009(f).
The RFP plan must describe the
control measures that provide for
meeting the reasonable further progress
milestones for the area, the timing of
implementation of those measures, and
the expected reductions in emissions of
direct PM2.5 and PM2.5 attainment plan
precursors. 40 CFR 51.1009(c).
2. Reasonable Further Progress
Demonstration in the South Coast 2007
AQMP
CARB provided an updated and
revised RFP demonstration for the
South Coast nonattainment area in
Appendix C of the 2011 Progress Report.
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The demonstration addresses direct
PM2.5, NOX, VOC and SOX and uses the
2002 annual average day inventory as
the base year inventory and 2014 as the
attainment year. The revised South
Coast PM2.5 RFP demonstration is
summarized Table 8 below.
As discussed above, the District’s
modeling demonstration indicated that
for attainment of the 1997 PM2.5
NAAQS, SOX reductions are the most
effective, followed by direct PM2.5, and
then NOX and VOC. Therefore, the
District’s proposed control strategy
maximizes reductions of direct PM2.5
and SOX to the extent possible.
TABLE 8—REVISED RFP CALCULATIONS
[Tons per average annual day]
NOX
2002 baseline inventory (tpd) ..........................................................................
Annual percentage change needed to show linear progress (%) ...................
Annual emissions reduction representing 1 year’s worth of RFP ...................
VOC
Direct PM2.5
SOX
1093
4.87
52.8
844
3.7
30.8
99
1.01
1.1
53
5.35
2.8
724
677
¥47
¥6%
628
563
¥65
¥10%
91
89
¥2
¥2%
34
43
9
+26%
566
582
16
+2.8%
534
514
¥20
¥4%
88
89
1
+1%
26
26
0
0%
2009
Benchmark emissions level (tpd) .....................................................................
Revised projected controlled level (tpd) ..........................................................
Emissions above/below benchmark emissions level (tpd)a ............................
Percent above/below benchmark emissions level ...........................................
2012
Benchmark emissions level (tpd) .....................................................................
Revised projected controlled emissions level (tpd) .........................................
Emissions above/below benchmark emissions level (tpd) ..............................
Percent above/below benchmark emissions level (%) ....................................
Source: 2011 Progress Report, Appendix C, Table C–2.
a A ‘‘-’’ value in the ‘‘projected shortfall’’ cell means the target has been exceeded. A bold italicized value indicates a shortfall.
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3. Proposed Action on the RFP
Demonstration
EPA has reviewed the revised RFP
demonstration in the 2011 Progress
Report and has determined that it was
prepared consistent with applicable
EPA regulations and policies. See
Section II.H of the TSD. As can be seen
from Table 8 above, controlled
emissions levels for NOX, direct PM2.5
and VOC were below the benchmarks
for 2009, demonstrating that the South
Coast nonattainment area met its RFP
targets for that year for those pollutants.
The table shows that the area has a
shortfall of 9 tpd of SOX in 2009. For
2012, the projected controlled emissions
levels for direct PM2.5 and NOX are only
slightly above the benchmark (by about
1%) and the projected controlled levels
for VOC and SOX are below or at the
benchmarks. We find that, overall, these
projected controlled emissions levels
represent generally linear progress for
2012.
Based on our evaluation, which is
summarized above and discussed in
detail in section II.H. of the TSD, and
our proposed concurrence (discussed
above in Section V.C.3) with the State’s
determination that NOX, VOC, and SOX
are attainment plan precursors and
ammonia is not an attainment plan
precursor per 40 CFR 51.1002(c), we
propose to find that the South Coast
2007 AQMP provides for reasonable
further progress as required by CAA
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section 172(c)(2) and 40 CFR 51.1009
and that the South Coast nonattainment
area has met its 2009 RFP
benchmarks.35
E. Contingency Measures
1. Requirements for Contingency
Measures
Under CAA section 172(c)(9), all
PM2.5 attainment plans must include
contingency measures to be
implemented if an area fails to meet RFP
(RFP contingency measures) and
contingency measures to be
implemented if an area fails to attain the
PM2.5 NAAQS by the applicable
attainment date (attainment contingency
measures). These contingency measures
must be fully adopted rules or control
measures that are ready to be
implemented quickly without
significant additional action by the
State. 40 CFR 51.1012. They must also
be measures not relied on in the plan to
demonstrate RFP or attainment and
should provide SIP-creditable emissions
reductions equivalent to one year of
35 As discussed above in section V.A., CARB has
recently updated the inventories for several mobile
source categories and estimates that these updates
would reduce, if incorporated into those
inventories, the Plan’s 2002 base year NOX
inventory by approximately 4 percent and the direct
PM2.5 inventory by approximately 5 percent. CARB
Progress Report Supplement, Attachment 1. EPA
evaluated the potential impact of revising the 2002
base year inventories on the RFP demonstration and
found that the Plan would continue to show the
RFP. See Section II.H. of the TSD.
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RFP. Finally, the SIP should contain
trigger mechanisms for the contingency
measures and specify a schedule for
their implementation. 72 FR 20586, p.
20642.
Contingency measures can include
Federal measures and local measures
already scheduled for implementation
that provide emissions reductions in
excess of those needed to provide for
RFP or expeditious attainment. EPA has
approved numerous SIPs under this
interpretation. See, for example, 62 FR
15844 (April 3, 1997) direct final rule
approving Indiana ozone SIP revision;
62 FR 66279 (December 18, 1997), final
rule approving Illinois ozone SIP
revision; 66 FR 30811 (June 8, 2001),
direct final rule approving Rhode Island
ozone SIP revision; 66 FR 586 (January
3, 2001), final rule approving District of
Columbia, Maryland, and Virginia
ozone SIP revisions; and 66 FR 634
(January 3, 2001), final rule approving
Connecticut ozone SIP revision. The
State may use the same measures for
both RFP and attainment contingency if
the measures will provide reductions in
the relevant years; however, should
measures be triggered for failure to make
RFP, the State would need to submit
replacement contingency measures for
attainment purposes.
2. Contingency Measures in the South
Coast 2007 AQMP
The attainment plan for the South
Coast nonattainment area includes
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contingency measures to be
implemented if the area fails to attain by
its attainment date or fails to meet RFP
requirements. The contingency
measures for the South Coast
nonattainment area are described in
Chapter 9 of the South Coast 2007
AQMP and discussed in more detail in
Appendix IV–A, section 2 of the AQMP.
They are described below.
The South Coast 2007 AQMP
describes the contingency measures in
the following way: ‘‘Although
implementation of these measures is
expected to reduce emissions, there are
issues that limit the viability of these
measures as AQMP control measures at
this time. Issues surrounding these
measures include, but are not limited to
availability of District resources to
implement and enforce the measure,
cost-effectiveness of the measure,
potential adverse environmental
impacts, potential economic impacts,
effectiveness of emissions reductions,
and availability of methods to quantify
emissions reductions.’’ South Coast
2007 AQMP, page 9–1.
The South Coast 2007 AQMP does not
calculate the emissions reductions that
are equivalent to one year’s worth of
RFP. Based on information in the plan,
we have calculated one year’s worth of
RFP to be 1.1 tpd of direct PM2.5, 52.8
tpd of NOX, 30.8 tpd of VOC, and 2.8
tpd of SOX. See Section II.I of the TSD.
The 2011 Progress Report adds
language indicating that the trigger for
implementation of the contingency
measures is nonattainment of the PM2.5
standard by April 5, 2015. (See 2011
Progress Report, Appendix F, page (5))
Additional information provided by
CARB indicates some reductions are
available for attainment contingency
measures. See CARB Progress Report
Supplement, Attachment 2, dated May
18, 2011, in the docket for today’s
action.
The South Coast 2007 AQMP and the
2011 Progress Report contained the
following contingency measures.
CTY–01—Offsetting potential
emissions increase due to change in
natural gas specifications—This
proposed contingency measure requires
RECLAIM facilities that use natural gas
of a quality that creates more emissions
to offset these emissions for all
pollutants. The measure is listed as a
‘‘Remaining 2003 AQMP Revision
Control Measure’’ and thus was relied
on in the 2003 AQMP for attainment. In
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addition, the reductions are not
quantified, and may be zero, because the
proposed measure may only reduce
future emissions increases rather than
provide net reductions. The measure is
not triggered by failure to meet RFP or
attainment and there is no defined
implementation schedule. For these
reasons, this proposed measure does not
meet CAA requirements for contingency
measures.
CTY–02—Clean Air Act emission fees
for major stationary sources—This
proposed contingency measure would
use fees generated from the District’s
Rule 317, Clean Air Act Nonattainment
Fees, to achieve emissions reductions.
The implementation of Rule 317 is
triggered by a failure of the South Coast
to attain the 1-hour standard by its
applicable attainment date (which
occurred on November 15, 2010) and
not by any failure to make RFP or to
attain the PM2.5 NAAQS, a requirement
for contingency measures for PM2.5 SIPs.
South Coast Rule 317 (a fee equivalency
program and demonstration) was
adopted on February 4, 2011 and
submitted to EPA for approval on April
22, 2011. There is no implementation
schedule provided for this contingency
measure, and the AQMP does not
quantify the reductions associated with
this measure. For these reasons, this
proposed measure does not meet CAA
requirements for contingency measures.
CTY–03—Banning pre-Tier 3 off-road
diesel engines on High Pollution
Advisory (HPA) days—This proposed
contingency measure would
complement a CARB rule which
proposed to establish declining fleet
average emissions levels for off-road
equipment over 25 horsepower (hp).
The District proposed a complementary
measure, SC–OFFRD–1, that would ban
the use of pre-Tier 3 off-road diesel
engines after 2023 on HPA days should
the South Coast nonattainment area fail
to meet the 8-hour ozone standard. This
proposed contingency measure would
require additional rulemaking at the
District level, as it is not currently
adopted. It also would be implemented
too late in time to provide for RFP or
contingency reductions for PM2.5 RFP or
attainment. In addition, the AQMP does
not quantify the reductions associated
with this measure. For these reasons,
this proposed measure does not meet
CAA requirements for contingency
measures.
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CTY–04—Request CARB to accelerate
State measure implementation—This
proposed contingency measure (which
could function as both an RFP and an
attainment contingency measure),
requires the District’s Governing Board
to adopt a resolution requesting CARB
to accelerate the adoption and/or
implementation of any remaining
control measures that have not yet been
adopted or fully implemented by one
year. South Coast 2007 AQMP, page
9–3.
Under CAA section 172(c)(9) and
EPA’s policies interpreting this section,
contingency measures must require
minimal additional rulemaking by the
State and take effect within a few
months of a failure to make RFP or to
attain.36 This proposed contingency
measure would require additional
rulemaking at the District level and
potentially substantial and lengthy
additional rulemaking at the State level
to be implemented. There is no trigger
mechanism or implementation schedule
provided, and the AQMP does not
quantify the reductions associated with
this measure. For these reasons, this
proposed measure does not meet CAA
requirements for contingency measures.
Post-Attainment Year Emissions
Reductions. Excess reductions from
CARB mobile source measures in 2015/
2016 do not fully address the
contingency measure requirement for
the PM2.5 attainment year. There is no
calculation of the emissions reductions
equivalent of one year’s work of RFP in
the South Coast 2007 AQMP.
CARB’s 2011 Progress Report
included calculations for the reductions
associated with the existing CARB
mobile source control program for 24
tpd of NOX and 13 tpd of VOC in the
year after attainment. However, CARB’s
mobile source measures do not provide
sufficient reductions to meet one year’s
worth of RFP, based on the information
provided in the 2011 Progress Report
(see 2011 Progress Report, Appendix F,
p. 3, and CARB Progress Report
supplement, Attachment 2; therefore,
post-attainment-year emissions
reductions do not meet the CAA
contingency measure requirement.
36 See ‘‘State Implementation Plans; General
Preamble for the Implementation of Title I of the
Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990,’’) 57 FR 13498,
at 13512 (April 16, 1992).
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TABLE 9—SUMMARY OF REDUCTIONS FROM CONTINGENCY MEASURES
[Tons per average annual day]
NOX
PM2.5
Excess reductions in the RFP demonstration that are available to meet the 2012 RFP
contingency requirements (excess reduction in the 2012 RFP demonstration) ..........
New 2015 reductions available to meet the attainment contingency requirement .........
Reductions equivalent to 1-year’s worth of RFP .............................................................
0
0
1.1
0
24
52.8
VOC
0
13
30.8
SOX
0
0
2.8
Source: 2011 Progress Report (see 2011 Progress Report, Appendix F, p. 3.
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3. Proposed Action on the Contingency
Measures
We are not evaluating the provisions
in the South Coast 2007 AQMP that
address contingency measures for
failure to meet the 2009 RFP
benchmarks. Information in the 2011
Progress Report shows that South Coast
met its 2009 benchmarks for direct
PM2.5, NOX, and VOC. See 2011 Progress
Report, Appendix C, Table C–2. SOX
emissions were higher than the linear
benchmark, but were corrected by the
2012 linear benchmark. See 2011
Progress report, Table C–2, and section
II.H of the TSD. Therefore, contingency
measures for failure to meet the 2009
RFP benchmark no longer have any
meaning or effect under the CAA and
therefore do not require any review or
action by EPA. In addition, as noted
above, the purpose of RFP contingency
measures is to provide continued
progress while the SIP is being revised
to meet a missed RFP milestone. Failure
to meet the 2009 benchmark would have
required California to revise the South
Coast 2007 AQMP to assure that the
next milestone was met and that the
plan still provided for attainment.
California has already prepared and
submitted a revision to the South Coast
2007 AQMP that shows that the SIP
continues to provide for RFP and for
attainment by April 5, 2015. This
revision is the 2011 Progress Report,
which is one of the submittals that EPA
is proposing action on in this notice.
The South Coast 2007 AQMP includes
suggestions for several contingency
measures that do not meet the CAA’s
minimum requirements. The measures
proposed by the District are not
adopted, and does not quantify the
expected emissions reductions in order
to gauge whether they provide
reductions equivalent to one year’s
worth of RFP.
The continuing implementation of the
State’s mobile source program will
reduce emissions substantially in 2015
(the year after the 2014 attainment year).
However, as shown in Table 9, these
reductions do not provide emissions
reductions equivalent to one year’s
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worth of RFP when considered on a perpollutant basis.
Based on this evaluation and for the
reasons stated above, we are proposing
to disapprove the District’s contingency
measure provisions for the 2012 RFP
year and the attainment year in the
South Coast 2007 AQMP for PM2.5 as
not meeting the requirements of CAA
section 172(c)(9) and 40 CFR 51.1012.
F. Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets for
Transportation Conformity
1. Requirements for Transportation
Conformity
Transportation conformity is required
by section 176(c) of the CAA. Actions
involving Federal Highway
Administration (FHWA) or Federal
Transit Administration (FTA) funding
or approval are subject to the EPA’s
transportation conformity rule, codified
at 40 CFR part 93, subpart A. Our
transportation conformity rule requires
that transportation plans, programs, and
projects developed by Metropolitan
Planning Organizations (MPOs) in
nonattainment and maintenance areas
conform to SIPs and establishes the
criteria and procedures for determining
whether or not they do so. Conformity
to the SIP means that transportation
activities will not cause or contribute to
new air quality violations, worsen
existing violations, or delay timely
attainment of the national ambient air
quality standards or any interim
milestone.
Control strategy SIP submittals (such
as RFP and attainment SIP submittals)
must specify the maximum emissions of
transportation-related emissions from
existing and planned highway and
transit systems allowed in the
appropriate years, i.e., the motor vehicle
emissions budgets (‘‘budgets’’). The
submittal must also demonstrate that
these transportation-related emissions
levels, when considered with emissions
from all other sources, are consistent
with RFP or attainment of the NAAQS,
whichever is applicable. MPOs cannot
use the budgets and DOT cannot
approve a Regional Transportation Plan
(RTP) or Transportation Improvement
Program (TIP) conformity analysis using
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the budgets until EPA had made an
affirmative adequacy finding based on a
preliminary review of the SIP. MPOs
must use budgets in a submitted but not
yet approved SIP, after EPA has
determined that the budgets are
adequate. In order for us to find these
emissions levels or ‘‘budgets’’ adequate
and/or approvable, the submittal must
meet the conformity adequacy
provisions of 40 CFR 93.118(e)(4) and
(5). Additionally, motor vehicle
emissions budgets cannot be approved
until EPA completes a detailed review
of the entire SIP and determines that the
SIP and the budgets will achieve their
intended purpose (i.e., RFP, attainment
or maintenance). For more information
on the transportation conformity
requirement and applicable policies on
budgets, please visit our transportation
conformity Web site at: https://
www.epa.gov/otaq/stateresources/
transconf/index.htm.
PM2.5 attainment and RFP plans
should identify budgets for direct PM2.5
and PM2.5 attainment plan precursors.
Direct PM2.5 budgets should include
PM2.5 motor vehicle emissions from
tailpipe, brake wear, and tire wear.
States must also consider whether reentrained paved and unpaved road dust
or highway and transit construction
dust are significant contributors and
should be included in the direct PM2.5
budget. (See 40 CFR 93.102(b) and
93.122(f) and the conformity rule
preamble at 69 FR 40004, 40031–40036
(July 1, 2004)). The applicability of
emission trading between conformity
budgets for conformity purposes is
described in 40 CFR 93.124(c).
2. Budgets in the South Coast 2007
AQMP and Additional 2008 Submittal
As submitted on November 28, 2007,
the 2007 South Coast AQMP included a
set of PM2.5 budgets for direct PM2.5, and
the PM2.5 precursors NOX and VOC for
RFP years 2009 and 2012, the
attainment year 2014, and 2023 and
2030. The direct PM2.5 budgets include
tailpipe, brake wear, tire wear, and
paved road, unpaved road, and
construction dust. See CARB Resolution
07–05, which revised the budgets in the
2007 South Coast AQMP as adopted by
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the District, and which was included in
the November 28, 2007 submittal. We
refer herein to these budgets as the
‘‘original’’ budgets. On April 30, 2008,
CARB submitted a SIP revision that
replaced the original set of PM2.5
budgets with two new sets of budgets
(herein, ‘‘replacement’’ budgets). One
set of the replacement budgets is
referred to as ‘‘SIP-based’’ budgets, and
the other set is referred to as ‘‘baseline’’
budgets. In its April 30, 2008 submittal,
CARB requested that EPA give primary
consideration to the ‘‘SIP-based’’
budgets and only find the ‘‘baseline’’
budgets to be adequate if EPA cannot
find the ‘‘SIP-based’’ budgets adequate
in their entirety.
The replacement budgets submitted
on April 30, 2008 differ from the
original budgets in that they reflect the
EPA-approved EMFAC2007 motor
vehicle emissions factor model (see 73
FR 3464, January 18, 2008) rather than
District’s CEPA emission factor model,
which had been used for the original
budgets. The ‘‘SIP-based’’ budgets
reflect emissions reductions from rules
adopted by October 2006 and also from
control measures CARB expected to
adopt in regulatory form in the future.
The ‘‘baseline’’ budgets differ from the
‘‘SIP-based’’ budgets by excluding
emission reductions from control
measures in the 2007 State Strategy that
had not been adopted in regulatory form
by October 2006.37 Moreover, the
‘‘baseline’’ budgets are only established
for RFP years 2009 and 2012 whereas
the ‘‘SIP-based’’ budgets are established
for the RFP years, the attainment year,
and 2023 and 2030.
3. EPA’s 2008 Adequacy/Inadequacy
Finding
EPA generally first conducts a
preliminary review of budgets
submitted with an attainment, RFP, or
maintenance plan for adequacy, prior to
taking action on the plan itself, and did
so with respect to the replacement PM2.5
budgets in the 2007 South Coast AQMP.
The availability of the original budgets
was announced for public comment on
EPA’s adequacy Web page on February
12, 2008 and the availability of the
replacement (then available in draft
form) was announced for public
comment on March 27, 2008. EPA
received comments from the public in
response to both postings.
On May 6, 2008, we found the ‘‘SIPbased’’ PM2.5 budgets for the 2007 South
Coast AQMP, as revised on April 30,
2008, to be inadequate for transportation
conformity purposes. See the letter and
enclosures dated May 6, 2008 from
Deborah Jordan, Director, Air Division,
EPA Region 9 to James Goldstene,
Executive Officer, CARB (a copy of
which has been placed in the docket for
this rulemaking). However, in our May
2008 adequacy determination, we found
the ‘‘baseline’’ PM2.5 budgets for RFP
years 2009 and 2012 to be adequate.
Generally, we found the ‘‘SIP-based’’
budgets to be inadequate because they
reflected control measures not yet
adopted in regulatory form and thus not
adequately quantified or supported by
the plan. In contrast, we found the
‘‘baseline’’ PM2.5 budgets to be
consistent with the plan’s RFP
demonstration and to be based on
adopted mobile source regulations that
have already been implemented. Our
notice of adequacy/inadequacy of the
budgets was published on May 15, 2008
at 73 FR 28110 (corrected on June 18,
2008 at 73 FR 34837), and was effective
on May 30, 2008. More information on
this finding can be found in the TSD for
today’s action.
4. Updated Motor Vehicle Emissions
Budgets in the 2011 Progress Report and
Additional Revisions
CARB’s 2011 Progress Report
contained updated budgets for the
South Coast nonattainment area and
their documentation in Appendices D
and A, respectively, of the 2011 Progress
Report. The updated budgets were for
direct PM2.5, VOC and NOX for the RFP
year of 2012 and the attainment year of
2014. No updated budgets were
included in the 2011 Progress Report for
the RFP year of 2009 because there are
no applicable conformity analysis years
prior to 2012.
The submittal also includes a
proposed trading mechanism for
transportation conformity analyses that
would allow future decreases in NOX
emissions from on-road mobile sources
to offset any on-road increases in PM2.5,
using a NOX to PM2.5 ratio of 10 to 1.
Transportation conformity trading
mechanisms are allowed under 40 CFR
93.124. The basis for the trading
mechanism is the SIP attainment
modeling which established the relative
contribution of each PM2.5 precursor
pollutant.
As proposed in the 2011 Progress
Report, this trading mechanism would
only be used, if needed, for conformity
analyses for years after 2014. To ensure
that the trading mechanism does not
impact the ability of the South Coast
nonattainment area to meet the NOX
budget, the NOX emission reductions
available to supplement the PM2.5
budget would only be those remaining
after the 2014 NOX budget has been met.
Clear documentation of the calculations
used in the trading would be included
in the conformity analysis. See 2011
Progress Report, Appendix D, footnote
to Table D–1.
On June 20, 2011, CARB posted on its
Web site technical revisions to the
updated MVEB in the 2011 Progress
Report that were referenced in a June
3rd letter to EPA.38 See CARB,
‘‘Proposed 8–Hour Ozone State
Implementation Plan Revisions and
Technical Revisions to the PM2.5 State
Implementation Plan Transportation
Conformity Budgets for the South Coast
and San Joaquin Valley Air Basins,’’
Appendix C, June 20, 2011, posted at
https://www.arb.ca.gov/planning/sip/
2007sip/2007sip.htm. These revised
updated budgets are shown in Table 10
below. The technical revisions correct
data entry errors in the budget
calculations and remove the emission
reductions attributed to AB923 (the
South Coast District’s light and medium
duty high emitter program).
TABLE 10—REVISED UPDATED RFP AND ATTAINMENT YEAR BUDGETS FOR THE SOUTH COAST PM2.5 NONATTAINMENT
AREA
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Pollutant
Year
VOC
2012 .............................................................................................................................................
37 With respect to the ‘‘SIP-based’’ budget for RFP
year 2009, however, CARB did exclude the
emissions reductions from measures not adopted by
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October 2006. Thus, the ‘‘SIP-based’’ PM2.5 budget
for 2009 is the same as the ‘‘baseline’’ PM2.5 budget
for that year.
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NOX
154
Direct PM2.5
326
38 See letter, James M. Goldstene, Executive
Officer, CARB, to Deborah Jordan, Air Division
Director, EPA Region 9, June 3, 2011.
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TABLE 10—REVISED UPDATED RFP AND ATTAINMENT YEAR BUDGETS FOR THE SOUTH COAST PM2.5 NONATTAINMENT
AREA—Continued
Pollutant
Year
VOC
2014 .............................................................................................................................................
NOX
132
Direct PM2.5
290
35
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Source: Proposed 8-Hour Ozone State Implementation Plan Revisions and Technical Revisions to the PM2.5 State Implementation Plan Transportation Conformity Budgets for the South Coast and San Joaquin Valley Air Basins, Appendix C, June 20, 2011.
5. Proposed Action on the Revised
Updated Budgets in the 2011 Progress
Report
EPA has evaluated the revised
updated budgets against our adequacy
criteria in 40 CFR 93.118(e)(4) and (5) as
part of our review of the approvability
of the budgets. The results of this review
are documented in Section II.J of the
TSD. We are also posting a notice of
availability on our transportation
adequacy Web site at https://
www.epa.gov/otaq/stateresources/
transconf/currsips.htm. EPA is not
required under its Transportation
Conformity rules to find budgets
adequate prior to proposing approval of
them. We will ultimately complete the
adequacy review of these budgets,
which could occur when we take a final
action on this SIP, or at an earlier date.
As discussed in sections V.C. and
V.D., we have completed our detailed
review of the South Coast 2007 AQMP
and supplemental submittals, including
the 2011 Progress Report. Based on this
thorough review of these submittals, we
are proposing to approve the attainment
and RFP demonstrations in the South
Coast 2007 AQMP. As discussed above,
CARB has recently posted revisions to
the updated budgets that were
submitted in the 2011 Progress Report
and intends to present these budgets for
adoption as a SIP revision at its July 21,
2011 Board meeting. After reviewing
these revised updated MVEBs, we are
proposing to find them to be consistent
with the approvable attainment and RFP
demonstrations and to find that they
meet all other applicable statutory and
regulatory requirements including the
adequacy criteria in 40 CFR 93.118(e)(4)
and (5). Therefore, EPA proposes to
approve the revised updated budgets
based on our assumption that we will
receive the revised budgets as a
complete SIP revision from the State
prior to our final action on the South
Coast 2007 AQMP. If CARB is unable to
adopt and submit the revised budgets,
then EPA intends to find inadequate
and disapprove the budgets contained
in the 2011 Progress Report.39 If we
39 EPA
cannot approve or find adequate the
budgets included in the 2011 Progress Report
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disapprove the budgets, a conformity
freeze would take effect upon the
effective date of the disapproval
(usually 30 days after publication of the
final action in the Federal Register). A
conformity freeze means that only
projects in the first four years of the
most recent conforming RTP and TIP
can proceed. During a freeze, no new
RTPs, TIPs or RTP/TIP amendments can
be found to conform. See 40 CFR
93.120.
6. Proposed Action on the Trading
Mechanism
As noted above, CARB included a
trading mechanism to be used in
transportation conformity analyses that
use the proposed budgets as allowed
under 40 CFR 93.124. This trading
mechanism would allow future
decreases in NOX emissions from onroad mobile sources to offset any onroad increases in PM2.5, using a
NOX:PM2.5 ratio of 10:1. To ensure that
the trading mechanism does not impact
the ability of SCAG to meet the NOX
budget, the NOX emission reductions
available to supplement the PM2.5
budget would only be those reductions
remaining after the 2014 NOX budget
has been met. The trading mechanism
will be implemented with the following
criteria. The trading applies only to:
• Analysis years after the 2014
attainment year.
• On-road mobile emission sources.
• Trades using vehicle NOX emission
reductions in excess of those needed to
meet the NOX budget.
• Trades in one direction from NOX
to direct PM2.5.
• A trading ratio of 10 tpd NOX to
1 tpd PM2.5.
Clear documentation of the
calculations used in the trading would
be included in the conformity analysis.
See 2011 Progress Report, Appendix D,
footnote to Table D–1.
EPA has reviewed the 10:1 NOX:PM2.5
ratio and finds it is an appropriate ratio
for trading between NOX and direct
PM2.5 for transportation conformity
purposes in the South Coast Air Basin
because they include uncreditable reductions from
AB923 and because of the technical error in the
budget calculations.
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for the 1997 PM2.5 NAAQS. The method
for determining the NOX Equivalent
Factors is documented in CARB’s Staff
Report on Proposed 2007 State
Implementation Plan for the South
Coast Air Basin—PM2.5 Annual Average
and 8–Hour Ozone National Ambient
Air Quality Standards, September 21,
2007, Appendix C. The method
discussed in this documentation
appears to be adequate for purposes of
assessing the effect of area-wide
emissions changes, such as are used in
conformity budgets. See Section V.D.2
above and II.B.4 of the TSD.
EPA believes that South Coast 2007
AQMP as revised by the 2011 Progress
Report includes an approvable trading
mechanism for determining
transportation conformity after 2014.
EPA is proposing to approve the trading
mechanism and all of the criteria
included in the footnote to Table D–1 as
enforceable components of the
transportation conformity program for
the South Coast nonattainment area for
the 1997 PM2.5 NAAQS. EPA is also
proposing to approve the use of this
ratio in transportation conformity
determinations for the 2006 24-hour
PM2.5 NAAQS, but only until EPA finds
adequate or approves budgets developed
specifically for the 2006 24-hour PM2.5
standard. Until that time, conformity
will be determined using the budgets for
the 1997 annual PM2.5 NAAQS. EPA is
not proposing, at this time, to approve
the use of this ratio in plans for future
PM standards or in the District’s new
source review (NSR) permitting
program.
VI. EPA’s Proposed Actions and
Consequences
A. EPA’s Proposed Approvals and
Disapprovals
For the reasons discussed above, EPA
proposes to approve, with the exception
of the contingency measures,
California’s SIP for attaining the 1997
PM2.5 NAAQS in the South Coast
nonattainment area and to grant the
State’s request for an extension of the
attainment date. This SIP is composed
of the relevant portions of the South
Coast 2007 AQMP as revised in 2011
and the South Coast-specific portions of
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CARB’s 2007 State Strategy as revised in
2009 and 2011.
Specifically, EPA proposes to approve
under CAA section 110(k)(3) the
following elements of the South Coast
PM2.5 attainment SIP:
(1) The 2002 base year emissions
inventories as meeting the requirements
of CAA section 172(c)(3) and 40 CFR
51.1008;
(2) the reasonably available control
measures/reasonably available control
technology demonstration as meeting
the requirements of CAA sections
172(c)(1) and 40 CFR 51.1010;
(3) the reasonable further progress
demonstration as meeting the
requirements of CAA section 172(c)(2)
and 40 CFR 51.1009;
(4) the attainment demonstration as
meeting the requirements of CAA
section 172(c)(1) and(6) and 40 CFR
51.1007;
(5) the air quality modeling as
meeting the requirements of the CAA
and EPA guidance;
(6) the revised updated 2012 RFP and
2014 attainment year motor vehicle
emissions budgets as posted by CARB
on June 20, 2011 contingent upon our
receipt of a SIP revision, because they
are derived from the approvable RFP
and attainment demonstrations and
meet the requirements of CAA section
176(c) and of 40 CFR 93, subpart A; and
CARB’s trading mechanism to be used
in transportation conformity analyses as
allowed under 40 CFR 93.124;
(7) SCAQMD’s commitments to the
adoption and implementation schedule
for specific control measures listed in
Tables 2 through 5 in Appendix F of the
2011 Progress Report to the extent that
these commitments have not yet been
fulfilled; and
(8) CARB’s commitments to propose
certain defined measures, as listed in
Table B–1 on page 1 of Appendix B of
the 2011 Progress Report and to achieve
aggregate emission reductions by 2014
sufficient to provide for attainment of
the 1997 PM2.5 NAAQS as described in
CARB Resolution 07–28, Attachment B.
EPA also proposes to concur with the
State’s determination under 40 CFR
51.1002(c) that NOX, SOX, and VOC are
attainment plan precursors and
ammonia is not an attainment plan
precursor for attainment of the 1997
PM2.5 NAAQS in the South Coast
nonattainment area.
EPA proposes to grant, pursuant to
CAA section 172(a)(2)(A) and 40 CFR
51.1004(a), California’s request to
extend the attainment date for the South
Coast PM2.5 nonattainment area to April
5, 2015.
EPA proposes to disapprove under
CAA section 110(k)(3) the contingency
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measures in the South Coast 2007
AQMP for failing to meet the
requirements of CAA section 172(c)(9)
and 40 CFR 51.1012.
B. CAA Consequences of a Final
Disapproval
EPA is committed to working with the
District, CARB and SCAG to resolve the
remaining issues with the SIP that make
the current PM2.5 attainment SIP for the
South Coast nonattainment area not
fully approvable under the CAA and the
PM2.5 implementation rule. However,
should we finalize the proposed
disapproval of the contingency measure
provisions in the South Coast 2007
AQMP or finalize a disapproval of the
transportation conformity emissions
budgets, the offset sanction in CAA
section 179(b)(2) would apply in the
South Coast PM2.5 nonattainment area
18 months after the effective date of a
final disapproval. The highway funding
sanctions in CAA section 179(b)(1)
would apply in the area six months after
the offset sanction is imposed. Neither
sanction will be imposed under the
CAA if California submits and we
approve prior to the implementation of
sanctions, SIP revisions that correct the
deficiencies identified in our proposed
action. In addition to the sanctions,
CAA section 110(c)(1) provides that
EPA must promulgate a federal
implementation plan addressing the
deficient elements in the PM2.5 SIP for
the South Coast nonattainment area two
years after the effective date of any
disapproval, should we not approve a
SIP revision correcting the deficiencies
within the two years.
Because we are proposing to approve
the RFP and attainment demonstrations
and the motor vehicle emission budgets,
we are proposing to issue a protective
finding under 40 CFR 93.120(a)(3) to the
disapproval of the contingency
measures. Without a protective finding,
final disapproval would result in a
conformity freeze under which only
projects in the first four years of the
most recent conforming RTP and TIP
can proceed. During a freeze, no new
RTPs, TIPs or RTP/TIP amendments can
be found to conform. See 40 CFR
93.120(a)(2). Under a protective finding,
however, final disapproval of the
contingency measures would not result
in a transportation conformity freeze in
the South Coast PM2.5 nonattainment
area.
VII. Statutory and Executive Order
Reviews
Under the CAA, the Administrator is
required to approve a SIP submission
that complies with the provisions of the
Act and applicable Federal regulations.
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41583
42 U.S.C. 7410(k); 40 CFR 52.02(a).
Thus, in reviewing SIP submittals,
EPA’s role is to approve state choices,
provided that they meet the criteria of
the CAA. Accordingly, this action
merely proposes to partially approve
and partially disapprove state law as
meeting Federal requirements and does
not impose additional requirements
beyond those imposed by state law.
A. Executive Order 12866, Regulatory
Planning and Review
This action is not a ‘‘significant
regulatory action’’ under the terms of
Executive Order (EO) 12866 (58 FR
51735, October 4, 1993) and is therefore
not subject to review under the EO.
B. Paperwork Reduction Act
This action does not impose an
information collection burden under the
provisions of the Paperwork Reduction
Act, 44 U.S.C. 3501 et seq, because this
proposed SIP partial approval and
partial disapproval under CAA section
110 and subchapter I, part D will not inand-of itself create any new information
collection burdens but simply approves
certain State requirements for inclusion
into the SIP and disapproves others.
Burden is defined at 5 CFR 1320.3(b).
C. Regulatory Flexibility Act
The Regulatory Flexibility Act (RFA)
generally requires an agency to conduct
a regulatory flexibility analysis of any
rule subject to notice and comment
rulemaking requirements unless the
agency certifies that the rule will not
have a significant economic impact on
a substantial number of small entities.
Small entities include small businesses,
small not-for-profit enterprises, and
small governmental jurisdictions. For
purposes of assessing the impacts of
today’s rule on small entities, small
entity is defined as: (1) A small business
as defined by the Small Business
Administration’s (SBA) regulations at 13
CFR 121.201; (2) a small governmental
jurisdiction that is a government of a
city, county, town, school district or
special district with a population of less
than 50,000; and (3) a small
organization that is any not-for-profit
enterprise which is independently
owned and operated and is not
dominant in its field.
After considering the economic
impacts of today’s proposed rule on
small entities, I certify that this action
will not have a significant impact on a
substantial number of small entities.
This rule does not impose any
requirements or create impacts on small
entities. This proposed partial approval
and partial disapproval of the SIP under
CAA section 110 and subchapter I, part
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D will not in-and-of itself create any
new requirements but simply approves
certain State requirements for inclusion
into the SIP and disapproves others.
Accordingly, it affords no opportunity
for EPA to fashion for small entities less
burdensome compliance or reporting
requirements or timetables or
exemptions from all or part of the rule.
The fact that the CAA prescribes that
various consequences (e.g., higher offset
requirements) may or will flow from
this disapproval does not mean that
EPA either can or must conduct a
regulatory flexibility analysis for this
action. Therefore, this action will not
have a significant economic impact on
a substantial number of small entities.
We continue to be interested in the
potential impacts of this proposed rule
on small entities and welcome
comments on issues related to such
impacts.
wreier-aviles on DSKGBLS3C1PROD with PROPOSALS2
D. Unfunded Mandates Reform Act
This action contains no Federal
mandates under the provisions of Title
II of the Unfunded Mandates Reform
Act of 1995 (UMRA), 2 U.S.C. 1531–
1538 for State, local, or tribal
governments or the private sector.’’ EPA
has determined that the proposed
approval and disapproval action does
not include a Federal mandate that may
result in estimated costs of $100 million
or more to either State, local, or tribal
governments in the aggregate, or to the
private sector. This action proposes to
partially approve and partially
disapprove pre-existing requirements
under State or local law, and imposes
no new requirements. Accordingly, no
additional costs to State, local, or tribal
governments, or to the private sector,
result from this action.
E. Executive Order 13132, Federalism
Executive Order 13132, entitled
‘‘Federalism’’ (64 FR 43255, August 10,
1999), requires EPA to develop an
accountable process to ensure
‘‘meaningful and timely input by State
and local officials in the development of
regulatory policies that have federalism
implications.’’ ‘‘Policies that have
federalism implications’’ is defined in
the Executive Order to include
regulations that have ‘‘substantial direct
effects on the States, on the relationship
between the national government and
the States, or on the distribution of
power and responsibilities among the
various levels of government.’’
This action does not have federalism
implications. It will not have substantial
direct effects on the States, on the
relationship between the national
government and the States, or on the
distribution of power and
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responsibilities among the various
levels of government, as specified in
Executive Order 13132, because it
merely proposed to partially approve
and partially disapprove certain State
requirements for inclusion into the SIP
and does not alter the relationship or
the distribution of power and
responsibilities established in the Clean
Air Act. Thus, Executive Order 13132
does not apply to this action.
F. Executive Order 13175, Coordination
With Indian Tribal Governments
This action does not have tribal
implications, as specified in Executive
Order 13175 (65 FR 67249, November 9,
2000), because the SIP EPA is proposing
to partially approve and partially
disapprove would not apply in Indian
country located in the state, and EPA
notes that it will not impose substantial
direct costs on tribal governments or
preempt tribal law. Thus, Executive
Order 13175 does not apply to this
action.
G. Executive Order 13045, Protection of
Children From Environmental Health
Risks and Safety Risks
EPA interprets E.O. 13045 (62 FR
19885, April 23, 1997) as applying only
to those regulatory actions that concern
health or safety risks, such that the
analysis required under section 5–501 of
the E.O. has the potential to influence
the regulation. This action is not subject
to E.O. 13045 because it because it is not
an economically significant regulatory
action based on health or safety risks
subject to Executive Order 13045 (62 FR
19885, April 23, 1997). This proposed
partial approval and partial disapproval
of the SIP under CAA section 110 and
subchapter I, part D will not in-and-of
itself create any new regulations but
simply disapproves certain State
requirements for inclusion into the SIP.
H. Executive Order 13211, Actions That
Significantly Affect Energy Supply,
Distribution, or Use
This proposed rule is not subject to
Executive Order 13211 (66 FR 28355,
May 22, 2001) because it is not a
significant regulatory action under
Executive Order 12866.
I. National Technology Transfer and
Advancement Act
Section 12(d) of the National
Technology Transfer and Advancement
Act of 1995 (‘‘NTTAA’’), Public Law
104–113, 12(d) (15 U.S.C. 272 note)
directs EPA to use voluntary consensus
standards in its regulatory activities
unless to do so would be inconsistent
with applicable law or otherwise
impractical. Voluntary consensus
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standards are technical standards (e.g.,
materials specifications, test methods,
sampling procedures, and business
practices) that are developed or adopted
by voluntary consensus standards
bodies. NTTAA directs EPA to provide
Congress, through OMB, explanations
when the Agency decides not to use
available and applicable voluntary
consensus standards.
EPA believes that this action is not
subject to requirements of Section 12(d)
of NTTAA because application of those
requirements would be inconsistent
with the Clean Air Act.
J. Executive Order 12898: Federal
Actions To Address Environmental
Justice in Minority Populations and
Low-Income Populations
Executive Order (EO) 12898 (59 FR
7629 (Feb. 16, 1994)) establishes federal
executive policy on environmental
justice. Its main provision directs
federal agencies, to the greatest extent
practicable and permitted by law, to
make environmental justice part of their
mission by identifying and addressing,
as appropriate, disproportionately high
and adverse human health or
environmental effects of their programs,
policies, and activities on minority
populations and low-income
populations in the United States.
EPA lacks the discretionary authority
to address environmental justice in this
proposed action. In reviewing SIP
submissions, EPA’s role is to approve or
disapprove state choices, based on the
criteria of the Clean Air Act.
Accordingly, this action merely
proposes to approve certain State
requirements for inclusion into the SIP
under CAA section 110 and subchapter
I, part D and to disapprove others will
not in-and-of itself create any new
requirements. Accordingly, it does not
provide EPA with the discretionary
authority to address, as appropriate,
disproportionate human health or
environmental effects, using practicable
and legally permissible methods, under
Executive Order 12898.
List of Subjects in 40 CFR Part 52
Environmental protection, Air
pollution control, Nitrogen dioxide,
Particulate matter, Reporting and
recordkeeping requirements, Sulfur
oxides, Volatile organic compounds.
Authority: 42 U.S.C. 7401 et seq.
Dated: June 29, 2011.
Jared Blumenfeld,
Regional Administrator, EPA Region 9.
[FR Doc. 2011–17229 Filed 7–13–11; 8:45 am]
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[Federal Register Volume 76, Number 135 (Thursday, July 14, 2011)]
[Proposed Rules]
[Pages 41562-41584]
From the Federal Register Online via the Government Printing Office [www.gpo.gov]
[FR Doc No: 2011-17229]
[[Page 41561]]
Vol. 76
Thursday,
No. 135
July 14, 2011
Part II
Environmental Protection Agency
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40 CFR Part 52
Approval and Promulgation of Implementation Plans; California; 2007
South Coast PM2.5 Plan and 2007 State Strategy; Proposed Rules
Federal Register / Vol. 76 , No. 135 / Thursday, July 14, 2011 /
Proposed Rules
[[Page 41562]]
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ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
40 CFR Part 52
[EPA-R09-OAR-2009-0366; FRL-9435-1]
Approval and Promulgation of Implementation Plans; California;
2007 South Coast PM2.5 Plan and 2007 State Strategy
AGENCY: Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).
ACTION: Proposed rule.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
SUMMARY: EPA is proposing to approve in part and disapprove in part
state implementation plan (SIP) revisions submitted by California to
provide for attainment of the 1997 fine particulate matter
(PM2.5) national ambient air quality standards in the Los
Angeles-South Coast area (South Coast). These SIP revisions are the
South Coast 2007 Air Quality Management Plan (South Coast 2007 AQMP)
(revised 2011) and South Coast-related provisions of the 2007 State
Strategy (revised 2009 and 2011). EPA is proposing to approve the
emissions inventories; air quality modeling; reasonably available
control measures/reasonably available control technology demonstration;
the reasonable further progress and attainment demonstrations; and the
transportation conformity motor vehicle emissions budgets. EPA is also
proposing to grant California's request to extend the attainment
deadline for the South Coast to April 5, 2015 and to approve
commitments to measures and reductions by the South Coast Air Quality
Management District and the California Air Resources Board. Finally, we
are proposing to disapprove the SIP's contingency measures and to
reject the assignment of 10 tpd of NOX reductions to the
federal government. This proposed rule amends EPA's November 22, 2010
proposed rule (75 FR 91294) on the South Coast PM2.5 plan
and 2007 State strategy.
DATES: Any comments must arrive by August 15, 2011.
ADDRESSES: Submit comments, identified by docket number EPA-R09-OAR-
2009-0366, by one of the following methods:
Federal eRulemaking Portal: https://www.regulations.gov.
Follow the online instructions.
E-mail: tax.wienke@epa.gov.
Mail or deliver: Marty Robin, Office of Air Planning (AIR-
2), U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Region 9, 75 Hawthorne Street,
San Francisco, CA 94105.
Instructions: All comments will be included in the public docket
without change and may be made available online at https://www.regulations.gov, including any personal information provided,
unless the comment includes Confidential Business Information (CBI) or
other information whose disclosure is restricted by statute.
Information that you consider CBI or otherwise protected should be
clearly identified as such and should not be submitted through https://www.regulations.gov or e-mail. The https://www.regulations.gov Web site
is an ``anonymous access'' system, and EPA will not know your identity
or contact information unless you provide it in the body of your
comment. If you send e-mail directly to EPA, your e-mail address will
be automatically captured and included as part of the public comment.
If EPA cannot read your comments due to technical difficulties and
cannot contact you for clarification, EPA may not be able to consider
your comment.
Docket: The index to the docket for this action is available
electronically on the https://www.regulations.gov Web site and in hard
copy at EPA Region 9, 75 Hawthorne Street, San Francisco, California,
94105. While all documents in the docket are listed in the index, some
information may be publicly available only at the hard copy location
(e.g., copyrighted material), and some may not be publicly available at
either location (e.g., CBI). To inspect the hard copy materials, please
schedule an appointment during normal business hours with the contact
listed in the FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT section below.
Copies of the SIP materials are also available for inspection at
the following locations:
California Air Resources Board, 1001 I Street, Sacramento,
California 95812, and
South Coast Air Quality Management District, 21865 E.
Copley Drive, Diamond Bar, California 91765.
The SIP materials are also electronically available at: https://aqmd.gov/aqmp/07aqmp/ and https://www.arb.ca.gov/planning/sip/sip.htm.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Wienke Tax, Air Planning Office (AIR-
2), U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Region 9, (415) 947-4192,
tax.wienke@epa.gov.
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Throughout this document, ``we,'' ``us'' and
``our'' refer to EPA.
Table of Contents
I. The PM2.5 NAAQS and the South Coast PM2.5
Nonattainment Area
II. California's State Implementation Plan Submittals to Address
PM2.5 Attainment in the South Coast Nonattainment Area
A. California's SIP Submittals
1. 2007 South Coast AQMP
2. CARB 2007 State Strategy
3. CARB 2009 State Strategy Status Report
4. Additional 2008 SIP Submittal Related to Motor Vehicle
Emissions Budgets
5. CARB 2011 Progress Report
6. Revisions to the 2007 PM2.5 and Ozone State
Implementation Plan for South Coast Air Basin and Coachella Valley
B. CAA Procedural Requirements for SIP Submittals
III. EPA's 2010 Proposed Action on the South Coast PM2.5
SIP
IV. CAA and Regulatory Requirements for PM2.5 Attainment
SIPs
V. Review of the South Coast 2007 AQMP and the South Coast Portion
of the Revised 2007 State Strategy
A. Emission Inventories
1. Requirements for Emission Inventories
2. Emission Inventories in the South Coast 2007 AQMP
3. Proposed Action on the Emission Inventories
B. Reasonably Available Control Measures (RACM)/Reasonably
Available Control Technology (RACT) and Adopted Control Strategy
1. Requirement for RACM/RACT
2. RACM/RACT Demonstration in the South Coast 2007 AQMP and the
2007 State Strategy
a. District's RACM/RACT Analysis and Adopted Control Strategy
b. CARB's RACM Analysis and Adopted Control Strategy
c. The Local Jurisdiction's RACM Analysis
3. Proposed Actions on RACM/RACT Demonstration and Adopted
Control Strategy
C. Attainment Demonstration
1. Requirements for Attainment Demonstration
2. Air Quality Modeling in the South Coast 2007 AQMP
3. PM2.5 Precursors Addressed in the South Coast 2007
AQMP
4. Extension of the Attainment Date
5. Attainment Demonstration
a. Enforceable Commitments
i. The Commitment Represents a Limited Portion of Required
Reductions
ii. The State Is Capable of Fulfilling Its Commitment
iii. The Commitment Is for a Reasonable and Appropriate Period
of Time
b. Federal Reductions
6. Proposed Action on the Attainment Demonstration
D. Reasonable Further Progress Demonstration
1. Requirements for Reasonable Further Progress
2. Reasonable Further Progress Demonstration in the South Coast
2007 AQMP
3. Proposed Action on the RFP Demonstration
E. Contingency Measures
1. Requirements for Contingency Measures
2. Contingency Measures in the South Coast 2007 AQMP
3. Proposed Action on the Contingency Measures
F. Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets for Transportation Conformity
[[Page 41563]]
1. Requirements for Transportation Conformity
2. Budgets in the South Coast 2007 AQMP and Additional 2008
Submittal
3. EPA's 2008 Adequacy/Inadequacy Finding
4. Updated Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets in the 2011 Progress
Report and Additional Revisions
5. Proposed Action on the Revised Updated Budgets in the 2011
Progress Report
6. Proposed Action on the Trading Mechanism
VI. EPA's Proposed Actions and Consequences
A. EPA's Proposed Approvals and Disapprovals
B. CAA Consequences of a Final Disapproval
VII. Statutory and Executive Order Reviews
I. The PM2.5 NAAQS and the South Coast PM2.5
Nonattainment Area
On July 18, 1997 (62 FR 36852), EPA established new national
ambient air quality standards (NAAQS) for PM2.5, particulate
matter with a diameter of 2.5 microns or less, including annual
standards of 15.0 micrograms per cubic meter ([mu]g/m\3\) based on a 3-
year average of annual mean PM2.5 concentrations, and 24-
hour (daily) standards of 65 [mu]g/m\3\ based on a 3-year average of
the 98th percentile of 24-hour concentrations. 40 CFR 50.7 EPA
established the standards based on substantial evidence from numerous
health studies demonstrating that serious health effects are associated
with exposures to PM2.5 concentrations above the levels of
these standards.
Epidemiological studies have shown statistically significant
correlations between elevated PM2.5 levels and premature
mortality. Other important health effects associated with
PM2.5 exposure include aggravation of respiratory and
cardiovascular disease (as indicated by increased hospital admissions,
emergency room visits, absences from school or work, and restricted
activity days), changes in lung function and increased respiratory
symptoms, as well as new evidence for more subtle indicators of
cardiovascular health. Individuals particularly sensitive to
PM2.5 exposure include older adults, people with heart and
lung disease, and children. See, EPA, Air Quality Criteria for
Particulate Matter, No. EPA/600/P-99/002aF and EPA/600/P-99/002bF,
October 2004.
PM2.5 can be emitted directly into the atmosphere as a
solid or liquid particle (``primary'' or ``direct PM2.5'')
or can be formed in the atmosphere as a result of various chemical
reactions from precursor emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOX),
sulfur oxides (SOX), volatile organic compounds (VOC) and
ammonia (NH3) (``secondary PM2.5''). See 72 FR
20586, 20589 (April 25, 2007).
Following promulgation of a new or revised NAAQS, EPA is required
by Clean Air Act (CAA) section 107(d) to designate areas throughout the
United States as attaining or not attaining the NAAQS. On January 5,
2005, EPA published initial air quality designations for the 1997
PM2.5 NAAQS, based on air quality monitoring data for three-
year periods of 2001-2003 or 2002-2004 (70 FR 944). These designations
became effective on April 5, 2005.
EPA designated the ``Los Angeles-South Coast Air Basin'' area
(South Coast nonattainment area), including Orange County, the
southwestern two-thirds of Los Angeles County, southwestern San
Bernardino County, and western Riverside County as nonattainment for
both the 1997 24-hour and the annual PM2.5 standards. The
South Coast PM2.5 nonattainment area is home to about 17
million people, has a diverse economic base, and contains one of the
highest-volume port areas in the world. For a precise description of
the geographic boundaries of the South Coast PM2.5
nonattainment area, see 40 CFR 81.305.\1\ The local air district with
primary responsibility for developing a plan to attain the
PM2.5 NAAQS in this area is the South Coast Air Quality
Management District (District or SCAQMD).
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\1\ On October 17, 2006, EPA strengthened the 24-hour
PM2.5 NAAQS by lowering the level to 35 [mu]g/m\3\. At
the same time, we retained the level of the annual PM2.5
standard at 15.0 [mu]g/m\3\. 71 FR 61144. On November 13, 2009, EPA
designated areas, including the South Coast, with respect to the
revised 24-hour NAAQS. 74 FR 58688. California is now required to
submit an attainment plan for the 35 [mu]g/m\3\ standards by
December 14, 2012. In this preamble, all references to the
PM2.5 NAAQS, unless otherwise specified, are to the 1997
24-hour PM2.5 standards of 65 [mu]g/m\3\ and annual
standards of 15 [mu]g/m\3\ as codified in 40 CFR 50.7.
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Ambient 24-hour PM2.5 levels in the South Coast are well
below the 1997 PM2.5 NAAQS. Ambient annual PM2.5
levels are improving but are still above the federal NAAQS. The design
value monitor at Mira Loma recorded a value of 16.8 [mu]g/m\3\ for the
2008-2010 period.\2\ In the South Coast, the levels and composition of
PM2.5 differ by geographic location, with higher
PM2.5 concentrations typically occurring in metropolitan Los
Angeles and in the inland valley areas of San Bernardino and
metropolitan Riverside Counties. The higher PM2.5
concentrations in Los Angeles County are mainly due to secondary
formation of particulates. See South Coast 2007 AQMP, page 2-13.
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\2\ See the Air Quality Subsystem (AQS) Preliminary Design Value
Report dated April 21, 2011 in the docket for today's action. 16.8
[mu]g/m\3\ is the highest design value in the South Coast
nonattainment area. The design value is the three year average of
annual means of a single monitoring site. (see 40 CFR 50 Appendix N
Section 1(c)(1)). This design value is based on 2008 and 2009 data
that are complete, validated, and certified by the District and on
2010 data that are complete and validated but not yet certified by
the District.
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II. California's State Implementation Plan Submittals To Address
PM2.5 Attainment in the South Coast Nonattainment Area
A. California's SIP Submittals
Designation of an area as nonattainment starts the process for a
state to develop and submit to EPA a State Implementation plan (SIP)
under title 1, part D of the CAA. This SIP must include, among other
things, a demonstration of how the NAAQS will be attained in the
nonattainment area as expeditiously as practicable, but no later than
the date required by the CAA. Under CAA section 172(b), a State has up
to three years after an area's designation to nonattainment to submit
its SIP to EPA. For the 1997 PM2.5 NAAQS, these
nonattainment SIPs were due no later than April 5, 2008.
California has made six SIP submittals to address PM2.5
nonattainment in the South Coast nonattainment area. The two principal
ones are the District's 2007 PM2.5 Plan (South Coast 2007
AQMP) and the CARB's State Strategy for California's 2007 State
Implementation Plan (2007 State Strategy).
In addition to these submittals, the District and State have also
submitted numerous rules that contribute to improving air quality in
the South Coast nonattainment area. See Appendices A and B of the
technical support document (TSD) for this proposal.
1. 2007 South Coast AQMP
On November 28, 2007, the California Air Resources Board (CARB or
State) submitted the ``Final 2007 Air Quality Management Plan, June
2007.'' \3\ This
[[Page 41564]]
Plan was adopted by the District on June 1, 2007 and submitted to CARB
on October 24, 2007.\4\ The South Coast 2007 AQMP includes a
PM2.5 attainment demonstration for the South Coast. In order
to meet relevant CAA requirements for the PM2.5 NAAQS, the
South Coast 2007 AQMP includes base and projected year PM2.5
emissions inventories for the South Coast nonattainment area; air
quality monitoring data; short-, medium- and long-term District control
measures; a summary of CARB's control measures; transportation control
measures (TCMs); a demonstration of reasonable further progress (RFP);
a modeled attainment demonstration; a demonstration of reasonably
available control measures/reasonably available control technology
(RACM/RACT); contingency measures for the 1997 PM2.5 RFP and
for attainment for the South Coast PM2.5 nonattainment area;
and a request to extend the attainment date for the 1997
PM2.5 NAAQS to April 5, 2015, although all controls
necessary for attainment by that date will be in place by the
attainment year of 2014.\5\ The South Coast 2007 AQMP submittal also
includes District Governing Board Resolution 07-9 adopting the final
South Coast 2007 AQMP.
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\3\ The South Coast 2007 AQMP is the first South Coast Plan to
address PM2.5. We have previously acted on numerous South
Coast air quality plans for ozone, PM-10, carbon monoxide, and
NO2, such as the 1997/1999 AQMP. We approved the ozone
portion of the 1997 South Coast AQMP, as amended in 1999, on April
10, 2000 (see 65 FR 18903). Our most recent action on a SIP
addressing the CAA requirements for the South Coast ozone
nonattainment area was our partial approval and partial disapproval
of the 2003 AQMP (see 74 FR 10176, March 10, 2009). Our 2009 final
action was challenged in the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals, which
published an opinion remanding certain aspects of EPA's action for
further action consistent with the opinion. See Association of
Irritated Residents v. EPA, 632 F.3d 584 (9th Cir. 2011). The issues
in dispute relate to the consequences of an EPA disapproval of a SIP
submittal, the adequacy of EPA's evaluation of a particular control
measure from the 2003 State Strategy, and the rationale for EPA's
approval of the State's submittal as meeting the requirements of CAA
section 182(d)(1)(A) (TCMs to offset growth in emissions from growth
in VMT) in the South Coast. EPA has sought rehearing on some of the
issues, and the mandate in this case has not yet been issued pending
action by the court on the petition for rehearing.
\4\ See letter, James N. Goldstene, Executive Officer, CARB, to
Jared Blumenfeld, Regional Administrator, EPA Region 9, September
15, 2010, with enclosures.
\5\ While the applicable attainment date for PM2.5
areas with a full five-year extension is April 5, 2015, reductions
must be implemented by 2014 to achieve attainment by that date. See
40 CFR 51.1007(b). We, therefore, refer to 2014 as the attainment
year and April 5, 2015 as the attainment date.
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2. CARB 2007 State Strategy
To demonstrate attainment, the South Coast 2007 AQMP relies in part
on measures in the 2007 State Strategy. The 2007 State Strategy was
adopted on September 27, 2007 and submitted to EPA on November 16,
2007.\6\ It discusses CARB's overall approach to addressing, in
conjunction with local plans, attainment of both the 1997
PM2.5 and 8-hour ozone NAAQS not only in the South Coast
nonattainment area but also in California's other nonattainment areas
such as the San Joaquin Valley and the Sacramento area. It also
includes CARB's commitments to propose 15 defined State measures \7\
and to obtain specific amounts of aggregate emissions reductions of
direct PM2.5, NOX, VOC and SOX in the
South Coast from sources under the State's jurisdiction, primarily on-
and off-road motor vehicles and engines.
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\6\ See CARB Resolution No. 07-28, September 27, 2007 with
attachments and letter from James N. Goldstene, Executive Officer,
CARB, to Wayne Nastri, Regional Administrator, EPA Region 9,
November 16, 2007 with enclosures.
\7\ The 2007 State Strategy also includes measures to be
implemented by the California Bureau of Automotive Repair (Smog
Check improvements) and the California Department of Pesticide
Regulation (VOC reductions from pesticide use). See 2007 State
Strategy, p. 64-65 and CARB Resolution 7-28, Attachment B, p. 8.
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3. CARB 2009 State Strategy Status Report
On August 12, 2009, CARB submitted the ``Status Report on the State
Strategy for California's 2007 State Implementation Plan (SIP) and
Proposed Revision to the SIP Reflecting Implementation of the 2007
State Strategy'', dated March 24, 2009, adopted April 24, 2009 (``2009
State Strategy Status Report''),\8\ which updates the 2007 State
Strategy to reflect its implementation during 2007 and 2008.
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\8\ See CARB Resolution No. 09-34, April 24, 2009 and letter,
James N. Goldstene, Executive Officer, CARB to Wayne Nastri,
Regional Administrator, EPA Region 9, August 12, 2009 with
enclosures. Only pages 11-27 of the 2009 State Strategy Status
Report are submitted as a SIP revision. The balance of the report is
for informational purposes only. See Attachment A to CARB Resolution
No. 09-34.
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In today's proposal, we are evaluating only those portions of the
South Coast 2007 AQMP and 2007 State Strategy and its revisions
(including the 2011 revisions described below) that are relevant for
attainment of the 1997 PM2.5 standards in the South Coast
nonattainment area.
4. Additional 2008 SIP Submittal Related to Motor Vehicle Emissions
Budgets
In addition to the SIP submittals for the 1997 PM2.5
NAAQS mentioned above, on April 4, 2008, the District Governing Board
approved an alternative approach for transportation conformity motor
vehicle emission budgets for the South Coast nonattainment area. This
new approach was based on the 2007 SIP baseline emissions reflecting
only the regulations adopted as of October 2006 for all milestone years
up to the attainment year. The CARB Governing Board approved Resolution
08-27 itemizing the modifications to the South Coast nonattainment area
transportation conformity emission budgets. The revised motor vehicle
emissions budgets were submitted as an amendment to the California SIP
on April 30, 2008 and were amended as part of the 2011 Progress Report
discussed below. We are acting on the budgets as amended in 2011 today.
5. CARB 2011 Progress Report
On May 18, 2011, CARB submitted the ``Progress Report on
Implementation of PM2.5 State Implementation Plans (SIP) for
the South Coast and San Joaquin Valley Air Basins and Proposed SIP
Revisions'', dated March 29, 2011, and adopted April 28, 2011 (``2011
Progress Report'').\9\ This submittal, which updates both the 2007
State Strategy and the South Coast 2007 AQMP, shows that both CARB and
the District have made significant progress in meeting their
commitments to adopt measures and to reduce emissions. More
specifically, it updates CARB's rulemaking calendar in the 2007 State
Strategy to reflect the current status of CARB's adopted
PM2.5 measures and to change the expected action dates for
several measures. It also updates the RFP demonstration, contingency
measures, and transportation conformity motor vehicle emissions budgets
in the South Coast 2007 AQMP to reflect rule adoption, changes to
activity and emissions factors for certain source categories, and the
impact on projected emissions levels in the South Coast nonattainment
area of the recent economic recession.\10\
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\9\ See CARB Board Resolution 11-24, May 18, 2011 and letter,
James N. Goldstene, Executive Officer, CARB to Jared Blumenfeld,
Regional Administrator, EPA Region 9, May 19, 2011 with enclosures.
Only Appendices B, C and D of the 2011 Progress Report are submitted
as a SIP revision. The balance of the report is for informational
purposes only.
\10\ On June 20, 2011, CARB posted to its Web site technical
revisions to the updated motor vehicle emissions budgets (budgets)
in the 2011 Progress Report. See https://www.arb.ca.gov/planning/sip/2007sip/2007sip.htm. We discuss these revisions in the section on
budgets below.
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6. Revisions to the 2007 PM2.5 and Ozone State
Implementation Plan for South Coast Air Basin and Coachella Valley
Also, on May 19, 2011, CARB submitted a SIP revision entitled
``Revisions to the 2007 PM2.5 and Ozone State Implementation
Plan for South Coast Air Basin and Coachella Valley (SIP Revisions)''.
These SIP revisions provide revised control measure commitments, a
revised rule implementation schedule, and a partial backstop for the 10
tpd NOX federal assignment for the South Coast 2007
AQMP.\11\ For the purposes of today's
[[Page 41565]]
proposal, we will refer to this SIP revision as ``2011 Progress Report,
Appendix F'', since it was included as an Appendix to the 2011 Progress
Report submitted on May 18, 2011.
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\11\ See letter, Lynn Terry, Deputy Executive Officer, CARB, to
Jared Blumenfeld, Regional Administrator, EPA Region 9, dated May
19, 2011, and enclosed ARB Board Resolution 11-24.
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In today's proposal, we are only evaluating those portions of the
South Coast 2007 AQMP and the 2007 State Strategy and its revisions
that are relevant for attainment of the PM2.5 standards in
the South Coast nonattainment area.
Future references in this proposal to the AQMP and the 2007 State
Strategy will be to the AQMP as revised in 2011 and the Strategy as
revised in 2009 and 2011, respectively, unless otherwise noted.
B. CAA Procedural Requirements for SIP Submittals
CAA sections 110(a)(1) and (2) and 110(l) require a state to
provide reasonable public notice and opportunity for public hearing
prior to the adoption and submittal of a SIP or SIP revision. To meet
this requirement, every SIP submittal should include evidence that
adequate public notice was given and an opportunity for a public
hearing was provided consistent with EPA's implementing regulations in
40 CFR 51.102.
Both the District and CARB have satisfied applicable statutory and
regulatory requirements for reasonable public notice and hearing prior
to adoption and submittal of the South Coast 2007 AQMP. The District
conducted public workshops, provided public comment periods, and held
public hearings prior to the adoption of the South Coast 2007 AQMP on
June 1, 2007 (District Governing Board Resolution No. 07-9). CARB
provided the required public notice and opportunity for public comment
prior to its September 27, 2007 public hearing on the plan. See CARB
Resolution No. 07-41.
CARB conducted public workshops, provided public comment periods,
and held a public hearing prior to the adoption of the 2007 State
Strategy on September 27, 2007. (CARB Resolution No. 07-28). CARB also
provided the required public notice, opportunity for public comment,
and a public hearing prior to its April 24, 2009 adoption of the 2009
State Strategy Status Report. CARB also provided the required public
notice, opportunity for public comment, and a public hearing prior to
its April 28, 2011 adoption of the 2011 Progress Report. See CARB
Resolution 09-34 and CARB Executive Order S-11-010.
The SIP submittals include proof of publication for notices of the
District and CARB public hearings, as evidence that all hearings were
properly noticed. We find, therefore, that the four submittals that
comprise the South Coast PM2.5 Plan meet the procedural
requirements of CAA sections 110(a) and 110(l).
CAA section 110(k)(1)(B) requires EPA to determine whether a SIP
submittal is complete within 60 days of receipt. This section also
provides that any plan that EPA has not affirmatively determined to be
complete or incomplete will become complete 6 months after the date of
submittal by operation of law. EPA's SIP completeness criteria are
found in 40 CFR part 51, Appendix V.
The South Coast 2007 AQMP became complete by operation of law on
May 28, 2008. The November 16, 2007 submission of the 2007 State
Strategy and the 2009 revisions to the Strategy became complete by
operation of law on May 16, 2008 and February 12, 2010, respectively.
We determined that the 2011 Progress Report was complete on June 13,
2011.\12\
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\12\ See letter, Deborah Jordan, EPA Region 9, to James
Goldstene, CARB, dated June 13, 2011 in the docket for today's
action.
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III. EPA's 2010 Proposed Action on the South Coast PM2.5 SIP
This is the second time EPA has proposed action on California's SIP
to address attainment of the 1997 PM2.5 standards in the
South Coast nonattainment area. On November 22, 2010 (75 FR 71294), EPA
proposed to approve in part and disapprove in part the 2007 South Coast
PM2.5 plan and the related portions of the 2007 State
Strategy as amended in 2009.
Specifically, we proposed to approve the emissions inventories as
meeting the applicable requirements of the CAA and the PM2.5
implementation rule in 40 CFR part 51, subpart Z. We proposed to
approve the District's and CARB's commitments to specific measures and
specific aggregate emissions reductions in these SIP revisions because
their approval would strengthen the SIP. We also proposed to approve
the air quality modeling.
We previously proposed to disapprove the attainment demonstration
as not meeting the applicable requirements of the CAA and the
PM2.5 implementation rule because it relied too extensively
on enforceable commitments to reduce emissions in place of fully-
adopted and submitted rules. Based on this proposed disapproval, we
also proposed to disapprove the RACM/RACT and RFP demonstrations. We
also proposed to disapprove the related contingency measures and
transportation conformity motor vehicle emissions budgets for the RFP
milestone years 2009 and 2012 and the attainment year of 2014. Finally,
we proposed not to grant the State's request to extend the attainment
date for the PM2.5 NAAQS in the South Coast nonattainment
area to April 5, 2015.
During the comment period for the November 2010 proposal, we
received four comment letters from the public as well as comment
letters from CARB and the District. Subsequent to the close of the
comment period, CARB adopted and submitted revisions to the South Coast
2007 AQMP and 2007 State Strategy. After considering information
contained in the comment letters and these supplemental SIP submittals,
we have substantially amended our November 2010 proposed action as
described below. EPA will consider all significant comments submitted
in response to both its November 2010 proposal and today's proposal
before taking final action on the South Coast 2007 AQMP. However, EPA
strongly encourages those who submitted comments on the November 2010
proposal to submit revised comments reflecting today's amended proposal
during the comment period on this amended proposal.
IV. CAA and Regulatory Requirements for PM2.5 Attainment
SIPs
EPA is implementing the PM2.5 NAAQS under Title 1, part
D, subpart 1 of the CAA, which includes section 172, ``Nonattainment
plan provisions.'' Section 172(a)(2) establishes the attainment date
for a PM2.5 nonattainment area ``as expeditiously as
practicable'' but no later than five years after the area's designation
as nonattainment. This section also allows EPA to grant up to a five-
year extension of an area's attainment date based on the severity of
the area's nonattainment and the availability and feasibility of
controls. EPA designated the South Coast as a nonattainment area
effective April 5, 2005, and thus the applicable attainment date is no
later than April 5, 2010 or, should EPA grant a full five-year
extension, no later than April 5, 2015.
Section 172(c) contains the general statutory planning requirements
applicable to all nonattainment areas, including the requirements for
emissions inventories, RACM/RACT, attainment demonstrations, RFP
demonstrations, and contingency measures.
On April 25, 2007, EPA issued the Clean Air Fine Particle
Implementation
[[Page 41566]]
Rule for the 1997 PM2.5 NAAQS. 72 FR 20586, codified at 40
CFR part 51, subpart Z (PM2.5 implementation rule). The
PM2.5 implementation rule and its preamble address the
statutory planning requirements for emissions inventories, RACM/RACT,
attainment demonstrations including air quality modeling requirements,
RFP demonstrations, and contingency measures. This rule also addresses
other matters such as which PM2.5 precursors must be
addressed by the State in its PM2.5 attainment SIP,
applicable attainment dates, and the requirement for mid-course
reviews.\13\ We will discuss each of these CAA and regulatory
requirements for attainment plans in more detail below.
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\13\ In June 2007, a petition to the EPA Administrator was filed
on behalf of several public health and environmental groups
requesting reconsideration of four provisions in the
PM2.5 implementation rule. See EarthJustice, Petition for
Reconsideration, ``In the Matter of Final Clean Air Fine Particle
Implementation Rule,'' June 25, 2007. These provisions are (1) the
presumption that compliance with the Clean Air Interstate Rule
satisfies the NOX and SO2 RACT requirements
for electric generating units; (2) the deferral of the requirement
to establish emission limits for condensable particulate matter
(CPM) until January 1, 2011; (3) revisions to the criteria for
analyzing the economic feasibility of RACT; and (4) the use of out-
of-area emissions reductions to demonstrate RFP. These provisions
are found in the PM2.5 implementation rule and preamble
at 20623-20628, 40 CFR 51.1002(c), 20619-20620, and 20636,
respectively. On May 13, 2010, EPA granted the petition with respect
to the fourth issue. Letter, Gina McCarthy, EPA, to David Baron and
Paul Cort, EarthJustice, May 13, 2010. On April 25, 2011, EPA
granted the petition with respect to the first and third issues, but
denied the petition with respect to the second issue given that the
deferral period for CPM emissions limits had already ended. Letter,
Lisa P. Jackson, EPA, to Paul Cort, EarthJustice, April 25, 2011.
EPA intends to publish in the Federal Register notice that will
announce the granting of the latter petition with respect to certain
issues and to initiate a notice and comment process to consider
proposed changes to the 2007 PM2.5 implementation rule.
Neither the District nor the State relied on the first, third,
or fourth of these provisions in preparing the South Coast 2007 AQMP
or 2007 State Strategy. The District has deferred CPM limits in its
rules. This limited deferral does not affect the South Coast 2007
AQMP's RACM/RACT and expeditious attainment demonstrations. EPA will
evaluate any rule adopted or revised by the District after January
1, 2011 to assure that it appropriately addresses CPM.
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V. Review of the South Coast 2007 AQMP and the South Coast Portion of
the 2007 State Strategy
We summarize our evaluation of the South Coast PM2.5
plan's compliance with applicable CAA and EPA regulatory requirements
below. Our detailed evaluation can be found in the TSD for this
proposal, which is available on line at https://www.regulations.gov in
docket number EPA-R09-OAR-2009-0366, or from the EPA contact listed at
the beginning of this notice.
A. Emissions Inventories
1. Requirements for Emissions Inventories
CAA section 172(c)(3) requires states to submit a plan revision
that includes ``comprehensive, accurate, current inventory of actual
emissions from all sources of the relevant pollutant.'' The
PM2.5 implementation rule requires states to include direct
PM2.5 emissions and emissions of all PM2.5
precursors in this inventory, even if it has determined that control of
any of these precursors is not necessary for expeditious attainment. 40
CFR 51.1008(a)(2) and 72 FR 20586, at 20648. Direct PM2.5
includes condensable particulate matter. See 40 CFR 51.1000.
PM2.5 precursors are NOX, SO2, VOC,
and ammonia (NH3).\14\ Id. The inventories should meet the
data requirements of EPA's Consolidated Emissions Reporting Rule
(codified at 40 CFR part 51 subpart A) and include any additional
inventory information needed to support the SIP's attainment
demonstration and (where applicable) RFP demonstration. 40 CFR
51.1008(a)(1) and (2).
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\14\ The District controls sulfur oxides (SOX), which
includes SO2, and considers the two terms interchangeable
for emissions purposes. We will use SOX in this notice.
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Baseline emissions inventories are required for the attainment
demonstration and for meeting RFP requirements. As determined on the
date of designation, the base year for these inventories should be the
most recent calendar year for which a complete inventory was required
to be submitted to EPA. The emission inventory for calendar year 2002
or other suitable year should be used for attainment planning and RFP
plans for areas initially designated nonattainment for the
PM2.5 NAAQS in 2005. 40 CFR 51.1008(b).
EPA has provided additional guidance for PM2.5 emission
inventories in ``Emissions Inventory Guidance for Implementation of
Ozone and Particulate Matter NAAQS and Regional Haze Regulations,''
November 2005 (EPA-454/R-05-001).
2. Emissions Inventories in the South Coast 2007 AQMP
The base year and future year baseline planning inventories for
direct PM2.5 and all PM2.5 precursors for the
South Coast nonattainment area together with additional documentation
for the inventories are found in Appendix III of the South Coast 2007
AQMP. Average annual day baseline inventories are provided for the
plan's base year of 2002 (the reference year for the RFP demonstration)
as well as 2005, 2008, 2010, 2011, and 2014. The base year and baseline
inventories incorporate reductions from federal, state, and District
measures adopted prior to 2007. South Coast 2007 AQMP, page 3-1. The
District also provided both summer and winter planning inventories for
PM2.5 and PM2.5 precursors. South Coast 2007
AQMP, Appendix III, page III-1-23.
Table 1 is a summary of the average annual day inventories for
directly-emitted PM2.5 and for the PM2.5
precursors NOX, VOC, and SOX for the base year of
2002 from the South Coast 2007 AQMP (derived from Appendix A, Table A-
2). It is these inventories that provide the basis for the control
measure analysis and the RFP and attainment demonstrations in the South
Coast 2007 AQMP.
Table 1--South Coast Nonattainment Area Emissions Inventory Summary for PM2.5 and PM2.5 Precursors for the 2002
Baseline Year
[Annual average day emissions in tons per day] \a\
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NH3 \b\
Emissions inventory category NOX 2002 VOC 2002 PM2.5 2002 SOX 2002 2005
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Stationary/Areawide Sources.................... 93 302 60 22 75
On-road Mobile Sources......................... 628 362 18 4 29
Off-road Mobile Sources........................ 372 180 21 27 n/a
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[[Page 41567]]
Total...................................... 1093 844 99 53 104
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\a\ Source: 2007 AQMP, pp. 3-9 and 3-14, Tables 3-1A and 3-3A. Numbers may not add due to rounding. Ammonia
emissions estimates were updated to 2005 by SCAQMD.
\b\ NH3 numbers were not provided for 2002.
As a starting point for the South Coast 2007 AQMP's inventories,
the District used CARB's inventory for the year 2002. An example of
this inventory and CARB's documentation for its inventories can be
found in Appendices A and F, respectively, of the 2007 State Strategy.
The 2002 inventory for the South Coast nonattainment area was projected
to future years using CARB's California Emission Forecasting and
Planning Inventory System (CEFIS). South Coast 2007 AQMP, Appendix III,
page III-1-1. Both base year and baseline inventories use the current
version of California's mobile source emissions model approved by EPA
for use in SIPs, EMFAC2007, for estimating on-road motor vehicle
emissions. 73 FR 3464 (January 18, 2008). Off-road inventories were
developed using the CARB off-road model. Ammonia emissions estimates
were provided separately by the District.\15\
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\15\ Electronic mail from Kathy Hsiao, SCAQMD to Wienke Tax, EPA
Region 9, ``RE: NH3 numbers for SCAB,'' dated October 29, 2010.
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When CARB submitted the 2011 Progress Report, the revised
attainment demonstration for the South Coast was based on the 2002
baseline inventory. This is consistent with the baseline inventory in
the 2007 AQMP, as well as the base year for the RFP demonstration. It
is also the year recommended by EPA guidance.\16\
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\16\ See 72 FR 20586, at 20647.
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3. Proposed Action on the Emission Inventories
The inventories in the South Coast 2007 AQMP are based on the most
current and accurate information available to the State and District at
the time the Plan was developed and submitted (including using the
latest EPA-approved version of California's mobile source emissions
model, EMFAC2007), address comprehensively all source categories in the
South Coast nonattainment area, and are consistent with EPA's inventory
guidance. For these reasons, EPA is proposing to approve the 2002 base
year emissions inventory in the South Coast 2007 AQMP as meeting the
requirements of CAA section 172(c)(3) and 40 CFR 51.1008(a)(1) and to
find that the baseline inventories in the South Coast 2007 AQMP provide
an adequate basis for the RACM/RACT, RFP, and attainment
demonstrations. We provide more detail on our review of the base year
inventory as well as the projected year inventories in section II.A. of
the TSD.
Since late 2007, California has experienced an economic recession
that has greatly reduced current levels of economic activity in the
State's construction and goods movement sectors. The recession has
resulted in lowered projected future levels of activity in this sector.
2011 Progress Report, Appendix E. As a result, projected emission
levels from these categories are now substantially lower than the
levels projected for 2008 and later in the Plan as submitted in 2007.
At this time, California is addressing these recession impacts on
future economic activity through adjustments to the baseline
inventories for specific source categories. See 2011 Progress Report,
Appendix E, page 2. There are no recession-related adjustments to the
2002 base year inventory in the South Coast 2007 AQMP.
CARB also made technical changes to the inventories for diesel
trucks, buses, and certain categories of off-road mobile source engines
as part of its December 2010 rulemaking amending the In-Use On-Road
Truck and Bus Rule and the In-Use Off-Road Engine rule. Id. The State
estimates that these changes collectively reduce the 2002 base year
total inventory in the South Coast by 4 percent for NOX and
5 percent for PM2.5.\17\ These changes are small given the
normal and unavoidable uncertainties in all emissions inventories, and
therefore, do not change our basis for proposing to approve the base
year inventory or to find the baseline inventories adequate for SIP
planning purposes. We discuss the impact of these changes on the plan's
RFP and attainment demonstrations later in this notice.
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\17\ See Attachment 1 to the letter, Lynn Terry, Deputy
Executive Officer, CARB, to Elizabeth Adams, Deputy Director, Air
Division, US EPA Region 9, dated May 18, 2011 (``CARB Progress
Report supplement''), in the docket for today's proposal.
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We note that the District and CARB are currently working on
revisions to the South Coast AQMP to address the 2006 24-hour
PM2.5 standards. These revisions are due to EPA in December
2012 and will include the most current inventory information that is
available.
B. Reasonably Available Control Measures (RACM)/Reasonably Available
Control Technology (RACT) and Adopted Control Strategy
1. Requirements for RACM/RACT
CAA section 172(c)(1) requires that each attainment plan ``provide
for the implementation of all reasonably available control measures as
expeditiously as practicable (including such reductions in emissions
from existing sources in the area as may be obtained through the
adoption, at a minimum, of reasonably available control technology),
and shall provide for attainment of the national primary ambient air
quality standards.'' EPA defines RACM as measures that a State finds
are both reasonably available and contribute to attainment as
expeditiously as practicable in its nonattainment area. Thus, what
constitutes RACM/RACT in a PM2.5 attainment plan is closely
tied to that plan's expeditious attainment demonstration. 40 CFR
51.1010; 72 FR 20586 at 20612. States are required to evaluate RACM/
RACT for direct PM2.5 and all of its attainment plan
precursors. 40 CFR 51.1002(c).
Consistent with subpart 1 of Part D of the CAA, EPA is requiring a
combined approach to RACM and RACT for PM2.5 attainment
plans. Subpart 1, unlike subparts 2 and 4, does not identify specific
source categories for which EPA must issue control technology documents
or guidelines for what constitutes RACT, or identify specific source
categories for State and EPA evaluation during attainment plan
development. 72 FR 20586 at 20610. Rather, under subpart 1, EPA
considers
[[Page 41568]]
RACT to be part of an area's overall RACM obligation. Because of the
variable nature of the PM2.5 problem in different
nonattainment areas, EPA determined not only that states should have
flexibility with respect to RACT and RACM controls but also that in
areas needing significant emission reductions to attain the standards,
RACT/RACM controls on smaller sources may be necessary to reach
attainment as expeditiously as practicable. 72 FR 20586 at 20612,
20615. Thus, under the PM2.5 implementation rule, RACT and
RACM are those reasonably available measures that contribute to
attainment as expeditiously as practicable in the specific
nonattainment area. 40 CFR 51.1010; 72 FR 20586 at 20612.
The PM2.5 implementation rule requires that attainment
plans include the list of measures the state considered and information
sufficient to show that a state met all requirements for the
determination of what constitutes RACM/RACT in its specific
nonattainment area. 40 CFR 51.1010. In addition, the rule requires that
the state, in determining whether a particular emissions reduction
measure or set of measures must be adopted as RACM/RACT, consider the
cumulative impact of implementing the available measures and adopt as
RACM/RACT any potential measures that are reasonably available
considering technological and economic feasibility if, considered
collectively, they would advance the attainment date by one year or
more. Id. Any measures that are necessary to meet these requirements
that are not already either federally promulgated, part of the state's
SIP, or otherwise creditable in SIPs must be submitted in enforceable
form as part of a state's attainment plan for the area. 72 FR 20586 at
20614.
A more comprehensive discussion of the RACM/RACT requirement for
PM2.5 attainment plans and EPA's guidance for it can be
found in the PM2.5 implementation rule preamble at 72 FR
20586, at 20609-20633 and in section II.D. of the TSD for this
proposal.
2. RACM/RACT Demonstration in the South Coast 2007 AQMP and the 2007
State Strategy
For the South Coast 2007 AQMP and the 2007 State Strategy, the
District, CARB and the local agency (through the South Coast's
metropolitan planning organization (MPO), the Southern California
Association of Governments (SCAG)), each undertook a process to
identify and evaluate potential reasonably available control measures
that could contribute to expeditious attainment of the PM2.5
standards in the South Coast nonattainment area. These RACM/RACT
analyses address control measures for sources of direct
PM2.5, NOX, SOX, and VOC, which are
the State's selected attainment plan precursors for the 1997
PM2.5 standards in the South Coast (see section V.C.3
below). We describe each agency's efforts below.
a. District's RACM/RACT Analysis and Adopted Control Strategy
The District's RACM/RACT analysis, which focuses on stationary and
area source controls, is described in Chapter 6 and Appendix VI of the
South Coast 2007 AQMP.
Since the 1970s, the District has adopted stationary source control
rules that have resulted in significant improvement of air quality in
the South Coast nonattainment area. When command and control rules were
no longer within the limitations of economic efficiency, the District
began using economic incentive approaches with programs such as the
Surplus Off-Road Opt-In for NOX (SOON) program and the Carl
Moyer program.18 19 While the District still relies on
command and control regulations, the District's control strategies are
now supplemented by market incentive and compliance flexibility
approaches where appropriate. These regulations and strategies have
yielded significant emissions reductions from sources under the
District's jurisdiction. In developing the South Coast 2007 AQMP, the
District conducted a process to identify RACM for the South Coast that
involved public meetings to solicit input, evaluation of EPA suggested
RACM and RACT, and evaluation of other air agencies' regulations. See
South Coast 2007 AQMP, Appendix VI.
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\18\ The Carl Moyer Memorial Air Quality Standards Attainment
Program (``Carl Moyer Program'') provides incentive grants for
engines, equipment and other sources of pollution that are cleaner
than required, providing early or extra emission reductions.
Eligible projects include cleaner on-road, off-road, marine,
locomotive and stationary agricultural pump engines. The program
achieves near-term reductions in emissions of NOX, PM,
and VOC or reactive organic gas (ROG) which are necessary for
California to meet its clean air commitments under the SIP.
\19\ The SOON program provides funding assistance to applicable
fleets for the purchase of commercially-available low-emission
heavy-duty engines to achieve near-term reduction of NOX
emissions from in-use off-road diesel vehicles. All large fleets
with a total statewide equipment horsepower (hp) over 20,000 hp must
apply for funding. Fleets below 20,000 hp may voluntarily
participate in this program.
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To determine which measures would be feasible for the South Coast,
the District looked at measures implemented in other nonattainment
areas' plans (including the San Joaquin Valley, the San Francisco Bay
Area, Sacramento, Ventura, Dallas-Fort Worth, the Houston-Galveston
area, and by the Lake Michigan Air Directors Consortium, or LADCO), and
held meetings with CARB, technical experts, local government
representatives, and the public during development of the South Coast
2007 AQMP. The District sponsored an AQMP summit, which generated 200
potential control measures. In addition, the District reviewed the list
of control measures suggested for consideration in EPA's
PM2.5 implementation rule. The District also reevaluated all
82 District rules and regulations. The District then screened the
identified measures and rejected those that affected few or no sources
in the South Coast, had already been adopted as rules, or were in the
process of being adopted. The District evaluated the remaining measures
using baseline inventories, available control technologies, and
potential emission reductions as well as whether the measure could be
implemented on a schedule that would contribute to attainment of the
PM2.5 standard assuming a 2015 deadline. South Coast 2007
AQMP, Appendix VI.
In general, EPA proposes to find that the District's current rules
and regulations are equivalent to, or more stringent than, those
developed by other air districts with respect to emissions of
PM2.5 and PM2.5 precursors. The District is
exploring several options for reducing emissions further. These include
the feasibility of lowering emission limits and increasing levels of
control in order to promote cleaner stationary source technologies;
lowering the VOC content of coatings and solvents; establishing
standards and test methods for generic equipment and lowering release
or leak thresholds; improving leak detection, repair, inspection and
maintenance; and adding best management practices to rules.
Based on its RACM/RACT evaluation for stationary and area sources
under its jurisdiction, the District developed 37 stationary source
control measures which comprised all measures included in other
districts' AQMPs, as well as some new innovative measures. The District
determined that the few available measures that District staff did not
include would not advance the attainment date or contribute to RFP due
to the insignificant or unquantifiable emissions reductions that they
would potentially generate. See South Coast 2007 AQMP, Appendix VI,
page VI-7. Since submittal of the AQMP in 2007, the District has
completed action on the majority of
[[Page 41569]]
these rules and submitted them to EPA for approval into the SIP.
From October 2002 through June 2006, the District adopted
approximately 17 rules to address its commitment to achieve the
reductions committed to in the 2003 AQMP for the South Coast. These
rules included controls on VOC emissions from refineries and chemical
plants, co-composting operations, architectural coatings, solvent
cleaning operations, oil and gas production wells, and livestock waste.
Many of the adopted rules achieved more estimated reductions in VOC,
NOX and SOX than were expected in the 2003 AQMP.
A summary of these rules, which are included in the baseline emissions
estimates for the South Coast 2007 AQMP, is provided in Table 1-2 of
the South Coast 2007 AQMP. See South Coast 2007 AQMP, Chapter 1, Table
1-2 and Chapter 4, page 4-6, and Table B-1 in Appendix B of the TSD for
today's action.
In addition to the rules adopted for the 2003 AQMP, the District
has also made new commitments in its South Coast 2007 AQMP to achieve
further reductions from VOC, NOX, SOX and direct
PM2.5 sources in the South Coast area. The District
committed to adopt and submit measures that will achieve the following
additional emissions reductions: 10.8 tpd NOX, 10.4 tpd VOC,
2.9 tpd direct PM2.5 and 2.9 tpd SOX.\20\ See
2011 Progress Report, Appendix E, Table 1. The District expects to meet
its emissions reductions commitments for each of the pollutants by
adopting new control measures and programs found in the Table 4-2A of
the South Coast 2007 AQMP (see South Coast 2007 AQMP, page 4-10 and
CARB Staff Report on South Coast 2007 AQMP, p. 18), as updated in the
2011 Progress Report, Appendix E, Tables 2 through 5 and from
additional actions summarized in the CARB Staff Report on the South
Coast 2007 AQMP (see CARB Staff Report on South Coast 2007 AQMP, p.
17). The new control measures and additional actions are estimated to
achieve more of the District's emission reduction commitments. They
include new rules to regulate lubricants, consumer products, non-
RECLAIM ovens, dryers and furnaces, space heaters, facility
modernizations, livestock waste, residential wood burning, and
commercial cooking. The South Coast 2007 AQMP also identifies 22
measures (beyond the new control measures and additional actions just
discussed) for further review, which may also yield additional
reductions towards the District's commitments. As discussed above, the
District's commitment is to achieve the estimated total tonnage
reductions of each pollutant because specific control measures and
actions as adopted may provide more or less reductions than estimated
in the South Coast 2007 AQMP.
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\20\ CARB uses the term ROG (reactive organic gases) where we
use the term VOC (volatile organic compounds). We will use the term
VOC in this notice to refer to both ROG and VOC.
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Finally, EPA notes that since the adoption of the South Coast 2007
AQMP, the District has already adopted and submitted many of the rules
in the South Coast 2007 AQMP that help fulfill the District's
enforceable commitments for additional emission reductions of
NOX, VOC, direct PM2.5 and SOX in the
South Coast area. Table 3 below summarizes the status of these new
rules.
Table 2--South Coast
[Annual average day emissions in tons per day] \a\
------------------------------------------------------------------------
SIP commitment by 2014
Pollutant --------------------------------------
Commitment Achieved Balance
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VOC.............................. 10.4 14.4 +4.0
NOX.............................. 10.8 7.60 -3.2
PM2.5............................ 2.9 1.00 -1.9
SOX.............................. 2.9 4.01 +1.11
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Source: 2011 Progress Report, Appendix F, Table 1. The ``Achieved''
column in Table 2 reflects District rules submitted to EPA. Table 3
reflects emissions reductions EPA can credit towards the attainment
demonstration.
Table 3--Status of District Short- and Intermediate-Term Control Measures Credited in South Coast 2007 AQMP Attainment Demonstration
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Emissions reduction
Control measure Rule No. Title commitment in South Emissions reductions SIP status
Coast 2007 AQMP achieved \a\
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BCM-03.............................. 445 Woodburning fireplaces and 1.0 tpd PM2.5.......... 1.0 tpd PM2.5; 0.44 74 FR 27716, 6/11/09.
wood stoves. tpd VOC; 0.06 tpd
NOX; 0.01 tpd SOX.
BCM-05.............................. 1138 Underfired charbroilers..... 1.1 tpd PM2.5.......... ...................... 66 FR 36170, 7/11/
2001.
CTS-01.............................. 1144 Metalworking fluids and 1.9 tpd VOC............ 3.9 tpd VOC........... 75 FR 40726, 07/14/10.
direct-contact lubricants.
CMB-01.............................. 1147 NOX reductions from 3.5 tpd NOX............ 3.5 tpd NOX........... 75 FR 46845, 08/04/10.
miscellaneous sources.
CMB-02.............................. 2002 Further SOX reductions from 2.9 tpd SOX............ 4.0 tpd SOX........... 76 FR 30896, 5/27/11.
RECLAIM.
FUG-02.............................. 461 Emissions Reductions from 3.7 tpd VOC............ VOC reductions 71 FR 18216, 4/11/06.
Gasoline Transfer and substituted by Rule
Dispensing Facilities. 1143.
FUG-04.............................. 1149 Storage Tank and Pipeline None................... 0.04 tpd VOC.......... 74 FR 67821, 12/21/09.
Cleaning and Degassing.
CMB-03.............................. 1111 Further NOX reductions from 0.8 tpd NOX............ 0.01 tpd NOX.......... 75 FR 46845, 8/4/10.
space heaters.
[[Page 41570]]
MCS-01.............................. 1110.2 Liquid and gaseous fuels-- ....................... 0.6 tpd NOX; 0.3 tpd 74 FR 18995, 4/27/09.
stationary ICEs. VOC.
FLX-02.............................. ........... Refinery pilot program...... 0.7 tpd VOC; 0.4 tpd VOC reductions ......................